# Since this is an international forum,any concern about whats going on in the Ukraine?



## Torch (Mar 3, 2014)

Especially our eastern Europe friends...


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## parsifal (Mar 3, 2014)

its complicated, and the ukraine is in the middle of it all


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## Wurger (Mar 3, 2014)

If it is unknown what it is on about , it's always about money and power.


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## Lucky13 (Mar 3, 2014)

Have to say that, I am a tad worried....


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## razor1uk (Mar 3, 2014)

Indeed, Cold War 2, and if it goes from safeties off.., it could be anything from a two to five way brawl depending on who decides to tag team or independant for their own reasons too.


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## pbehn (Mar 3, 2014)

statement issued by the G7 

We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the President of the European Council and President of the European Commission, join together today to condemn the Russian Federation’s clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in contravention of Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter and its 1997 basing agreement with Ukraine. We call on Russia to address any ongoing security or human rights concerns that it has with Ukraine through direct negotiations, and/or via international observation or mediation under the auspices of the UN or the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. We stand ready to assist with these efforts. 

We also call on all parties concerned to behave with the greatest extent of self-restraint and responsibility, and to decrease the tensions.

We note that Russia’s actions in Ukraine also contravene the principles and values on which the G-7 and the G-8 operate. As such, we have decided for the time being to suspend our participation in activities associated with the preparation of the scheduled G-8 Summit in Sochi in June, until the environment comes back where the G-8 is able to have meaningful discussion. 

We are united in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its right to choose its own future. We commit ourselves to support Ukraine in its efforts to restore unity, stability, and political and economic health to the country. To that end, we will support Ukraine’s work with the International Monetary Fund to negotiate a new program and to implement needed reforms. IMF support will be critical in unlocking additional assistance from the World Bank, other international financial institutions, the EU, and bilateral sources.


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## stona (Mar 3, 2014)

Words, words, words. When push comes to shove the Russian Federation will get away with intervention in the Ukraine because there is neither the will nor the means for NATO and the West to do anything about it. 

Suspended from the G8, I bet Putin is quaking in his boots. His policy is not just popular with ethnic Russians within the Ukraine (over 8 million of them, almost 1 in 5 of the total Ukrainian population and a large majority in the Crimea), it's popular at home.

Cheers

Steve


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 3, 2014)

Who's up on the International Space station right now ....?


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## razor1uk (Mar 3, 2014)

Well after Sochi, Russia wants to spend its goodwill capital (in its own eyes) it earned perhaps, that and we don't know what the 'running man' promised the Kremlin. 
Though I haven't heard of Russia yet advising restraint and caution to the Ethnic Russians their associated civilian/militia groups within Ukraine; who have certainly helped escalate things more than the non-Russians have.

It'd appear the running man shot the bolt when the marksmen opened up last week - giving him the benifit of some doubt on that aspect - he might have told them to fire above their heads, but in a crowd doing so will hit others. Then again he knew that having expropirated such funds for his Caliguan retreat, he risked a irksome mob if they got to him.

I offer praise to the Ukrainian people of all its ethnicities for acting 90% in a correct and proper civil manner to each other, and the public ad-hoc guards who kept peace and order for their nation in such a considered and apparently law abbiding way too.

Lets hope that things proceed in such a manner as shown exemplified for the large part by the Ukrainians. As for the talk of skin heads, Russia has much more of them population wise, so using that as an excuse is grasping at straws in my mind.

As for the EU's role in all this, well a consortium of many backgrounds rarely acts in the general good so well as the hope and advertise they do, their hands too are not totally clean in this debacle either methinks.
Apologies if this offends, if asked I will always edit if required too within the remit of frees peech and free opinion.


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## bobbysocks (Mar 3, 2014)

guess we will find out the value of "talk" which our president is big on. i think Putin felt the global political atmosphere was at a point where he could exploit it. were there different leaders in office in certain countries he may not have made this move. that is about all i will say for fear this thread gets way too political and gets locked down.


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## pbehn (Mar 3, 2014)

Russia need to sell oil and Gas to Europe. Europe needs Russian oil and gas! Oh and the British foreign minister just realised he doesnt really have any armed forces anymore.

Invading neighbours is costly

just read this

Russia's MICEX stock exchange later lost up to 10% of its value when it opened for business - later extending those losses to 12.5% by mid-afternoon - while Russia's central bank reacted to a plunge in the value of the ruble by raising its core interest rate to 7% from 5.5%.


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## tomo pauk (Mar 3, 2014)

All these goings smell too bad like Sudettenland affair, and what was going on here in 1990s. Ie. couple of wrong moves might lead to an major war.
Too bad EU has no military means to back up it's talk.


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## bobbysocks (Mar 3, 2014)

well in the us the dow is down 150 - 170 points but gold and silver arent jumping traumatically.


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## Gnomey (Mar 3, 2014)

Yeah, the Russian exchange + the rouble dropped markedly. Britain has stopped sending anyone but athletes to the Paralympics in Sochi (bit pointless really).

Be interesting to see what happens with the expiration of the latest deadline at 03:00GMT.

The West is unlikely to anything more than sanctions. As to Ukraine, I can see it being split down ethnic lines with half becoming part of Russia and the other bit staying independent (and likely bankrupt).


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## parsifal (Mar 3, 2014)

basic problems are 

1) Russia has always wanted parts of the ukraine back, specificaly the crimea
2) Crimea is ethnically Russian and majority want union with Russia. They were forcibly grafted onto the Ukraine SSR in 1954, but ethnically have never been part of the Ukr. At stake is the big naval faility at Sevastopol
3) Ukr opted for independance 1990s, but still want cheap oil and gas. Russians will only sell product to them for full market price.
4) Russians are breaking just about every traty they have with Ukr and are acting like thugs by simply moving troops in unnannounced
5) US and EU re4sponse is weak and disjointed. Putin is acting decisively and may be tempted to act rashly because of EU impotence. 


Does not look good at all


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2014)

The excuse that the Ukraine has an ethnic Russian population, therefore belongs to Russia is a thinly veiled excuse to grab more territory.

Putin is nothing more than a Khruschev wannabe.


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## stona (Mar 3, 2014)

GrauGeist said:


> The excuse that the Ukraine has an ethnic Russian population, therefore belongs to Russia is a thinly veiled excuse to grab more territory.
> 
> Putin is nothing more than a Khruschev wannabe.



Borders move all the time. Worst case scenario for the Ukraine is a Balkan style 'civil' war with the country dividing along ethnic lines. 

The West will just stand on the side lines complaining. Some sanctions will be introduced, but even that will be half hearted. We need Russia's oil and particularly gas. About 30% of Europe's gas comes from Russia _via the Ukraine _ and that sort of quantity cannot be made up by other large exporters like Norway.

Cheers

Steve


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## Crimea_River (Mar 3, 2014)

On a purely selfish note, I can see my retirement funds taking a beating yet again.......

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## michaelmaltby (Mar 3, 2014)

"...We need Russia's oil and particularly gas."

What's wrong with _your own _oil and gas ....?


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2014)

stona said:


> Borders move all the time. Worst case scenario for the Ukraine is a Balkan style 'civil' war with the country dividing along ethnic lines.
> 
> The West will just stand on the side lines complaining. Some sanctions will be introduced, but even that will be half hearted. We need Russia's oil and particularly gas. About 30% of Europe's gas comes from Russia _via the Ukraine _ and that sort of quantity cannot be made up by other large exporters like Norway.
> 
> ...


Well, it's a can of worms no matter how you look at it.

If the Balkan countries step in to help the Ukraine, they will be sorely outclassed by the Russian military and will invite all sorts of disaster.

If the western European countries step in to help the Ukraine, it will most certainly escelate into something ugly (think along the lines of WWI)

If the U.S. gets involved...well, we can see where this will go.

However, if Russia is not challenged one way or another, then Putin has the Hitlarian option to keep nudging here and there until something does end up happening...


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## bobbysocks (Mar 3, 2014)

"_The excuse that the Ukraine has an ethnic Russian population, therefore belongs to Russia_" is a thinly veiled excuse to grab more territory.

i agree...echos of hitler and the sudetenland....

"_5) US and EU response is weak and disjointed. Putin is acting decisively and may be tempted to act rashly because of EU impotence." _

think so too....

will the resolution result in a split of the ukr....where crimea becomes its own country? this really has a ring in my ears of early hilter with annexing countries and the poland ordeal. interesting to see how it plays out.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2014)

I will stay out of this for the most part, as I see this becoming too political.

I will however say this...

The US needs to stay the hell out of it. Let the EU stand up and police their own regions. 

If the US gets involved, half of Europe will scream about how evil and war mongering the US is. If the US does not get involved, half of Europe will scream about how the US is not doing anything at all. You can't win. Stay the hell out of it, let Europe police itself. We have taken part in one to many conflicts and not another US soldier should put their life at risk. We have our own problems at home right now.

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## parsifal (Mar 3, 2014)

thats what maggie thatcher said about peace in the middle east, close the borders, restricted arms shipments, let em fight it out amongst themselves until theyve had their fill

whatever you thought of her, that foreign policy idea made sense.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 3, 2014)

I think it's a gamble that in the end Putin will lose.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2014)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think it's a gamble that in the end Putin will lose.


But, at what cost?


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## razor1uk (Mar 3, 2014)

...on a lighter note didn't the Pet Shop Boy's do a song that had a vague 
soviet anthem styled song called 'Go West', ..but who was it for; the Bear or the Trident?


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## Torch (Mar 4, 2014)

Whats going to stop Russia from going all the way to Odessa,another major rail hub,seaport and pipeline control?. If that happens they control just about anything important in that area...


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2014)

If I was a squaddie in either of these units, I'd be getting a bit nervous:

11 Light Brigade
19 Light Brigade

Thankfully, neither unit rides on horses any more although both have cavalry elements...really, really hope history isn't going to repeat itself in the Crimea!


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## stona (Mar 4, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> "...We need Russia's oil and particularly gas."
> 
> What's wrong with _your own _oil and gas ....?



Nowhere near enough. We import substantial amounts, I believe most from Norway but a lot from Russia. 40% of Germany's oil and gas comes from Russia. Russian fossil fuels power Europe's most successful industrial economy, it really is a simple as that.

It's hardly surprising that none of the EU heavyweights, notably governments in Berlin, Paris and London, want anything to do with any kind of meaningful sanctions. No one wants to do anything that might endanger the fragile recovery evident in their own economies. 

The US Senate made it clear that it won't go it alone despite Obama's rather vague threats. When Obama makes threats most Europeans just roll there eyes anyway, which is hardly surprising.

As I said before, the Russian Federation will get away with this and Putin knows it.

Cheers

Steve


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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

I somewhat think your correct on that one Stona, though Vlad (the Imperator) is partly doing this to keep the Russian neo-fascists/pro-Sovietists under some control via the argument of appealing to their nationalistic tendancies too; as much as trying to keep his economy from sinking furthe than France's 95%ish GDP to national debt levels.


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## marconi (Mar 4, 2014)

Hey, everyone!
I haven't been here for a long time, but this is the only military forum I am registered to, so I'd like to ask you a question.
Russian forces in Crimea don't wear any Russian insignia and deny their affiliation to Russia. Does this makes them unlawful combatants or mercenaries according to law?


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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2014)

The 1949 Geneva Conventions state that "it is unlawful for belligerents to engage in combat without meeting certain requirements, such as wearing distinctive uniform or other distinctive signs visible at a distance" as well as "Impersonating soldiers of the other side by wearing the enemy’s uniform is allowed, *though fighting in that uniform is unlawful perfidy*"

"distinctive signs" means national identity (flag or other distinctive, internationally recognized identifier)


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## Marcel (Mar 4, 2014)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The US needs to stay the hell out of it. Let the EU stand up and police their own regions.


Oh god. If that's the way then god help the Ukraine. The EU is nothing but a bunch of indecisive politicians. The thing they are good at is ruining strong economies to finance the corruption of others. They are too divided to do anything.

At this moment, the Easter Europeans want to follow the hard line. They should know, they've dealt with the bastards for a couple of decades. The Western European countries like my own want to be softy as we should not upset tovarishch Putin. THe worst thing we can think of is not sending a minister to paralympics. It doesn;t do any good apart form keeping a minister form his well earned vacation.

So far my political rant. I too will stay out of this now.


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## stona (Mar 4, 2014)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I will however say this...
> 
> The US needs to stay the hell out of it. Let the EU stand up and police their own regions.



And we thought that isolationism was dead 

Any policing would be done by the U.N. and that would involve N.A.T.O. both of which organisations the U.S.A. belongs to.

It won't come to that anyway.

Cheers

Steve


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## stona (Mar 4, 2014)

Marcel said:


> The EU is nothing but a bunch of indecisive politicians. ......... They are too divided to do anything.



And the US is different how exactly?

Cheers

Steve


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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

Tovarisch? 
..Marcel, I think you got the wrong translated meaning of what you meant to say, as Putin isn't akin to blood brother who's sworn to guard your own back Marcel? (like a police 'partner' but, oathed together in friendship) ...assuming that the Romanian Tovaresh is similar to the cyrillic-slavian word in ethos, and concept.

Perhaps you were trying to say Comrade in an ironic tone of implied frustrated anger of the situation - and yep the EU is just as much headless birds running around not quite knowing what to do as political groaping back and forth plays out. 
I think most in the current situation, are feeling like that too(; I do), even for those that hide it behind kremlin sized wall of propaganda in some way too.


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## Torch (Mar 4, 2014)

Think Putin just needed a trigger to get his hands back on the Ukraine,if he was so concerned about Crimeas population why not just ask the UN to provide peace keepers to cover Crimeas Russian interest. Considering it seems like there was no violence towards anybody from the Ukraines side...


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 4, 2014)

"....And the US is different how exactly?"

They have long bankrolled the Alliance that was created to help stop this revisionist-USSR re-incarnation from spreading into western Europe's precious "Civilization". With precious little appreciation from their proteges. Great Britain is the exception historically, but for how long ...?

Why is Europe such a basket case .... over governed, ruled by bureaucrats, afraid to develop domestic resources like TIGHT gas and oil ... willing to be swung like a cat by your energy "dealer" ...?

What price are you willing to pay to rebuff Vlad ...?


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/w...sanctions-by-us-for-crimea-crisis.html?hp_r=1


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## parsifal (Mar 4, 2014)

Torch said:


> Think Putin just needed a trigger to get his hands back on the Ukraine,if he was so concerned about Crimeas population why not just ask the UN to provide peace keepers to cover Crimeas Russian interest. Considering it seems like there was no violence towards anybody from the Ukraines side...



Thats not how the Russians see it. There are scores dead, on both sides, president has been forcibly removed, new Ukrainian regime has been threatening reprisals on Russian minirities. Russians are very sensitive to that sort of thing.

Doesnt excuse what Putin is doing. hes exploiting the situation, but neither is it valid to paint the ukrainians as the innocent party in all of this. They are as up to their necks in scheming as the russians

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## michaelmaltby (Mar 4, 2014)

".....They are as up to their necks in scheming as the russians.."

And happy to have their heating bills subsidized by Russia. Ukraine needs to man-up to its situation and discover their inner-Poland.

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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

Though manning up can also mean standing up, with your head above the parapet too, then again which side's been digging the most trenches.


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## stona (Mar 4, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> "....And the US is different how exactly?"
> 
> They have long bankrolled the Alliance that was created to help stop this revisionist-USSR re-incarnation from spreading into western Europe's precious "Civilization". With precious little appreciation from their proteges. Great Britain is the exception historically, but for how long ...?
> 
> What price are you willing to pay to rebuff Vlad ...?



The US bankrolls NATO to protect itself, not to "stop this revisionist-USSR re-incarnation from spreading into western Europe's precious "Civilization".

Incidentally the US contributes about 20% to NATO's three main budget groups compared to Germany's 14% and the UK and France's 11%, so some might take exception to the idea that the US bankrolls NATO. Those four nations contribute about half the total budget. Canada contributes just under 6% to all three budget groups. Never let the facts get in the way of good old jingoism 

Europe will not pay any price to rebuff the Russian Federation, why should it ? The Russians will have their way and we, like good little Princesses, will just have to suck it up. 

Cheers

Steve


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## mikewint (Mar 4, 2014)

Grau, Well I can attest that after 5 years in Vietnam I can count on one hand the number of times I wore a non-sanitized uniform in combat. Tiger-stripes (US insisted on OD green BDUs and nothing in Vietnam is OD green) originally came from the mercs and we also wore the black "PJs" (though I looked silly as heck at 6'4"). If I use the other hand I can count the number of times I actually fought IN Vietnam. The US term is "plausable deniability"


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## marconi (Mar 4, 2014)

Thanks, GrauGeist. 
Another question then. President Yanukovich fled Kiev on 21th. Manifestations in Sevastopol started on 26th and Crimean Parliament was ceased the next day.Helicopters and cargo planes were firs witnesed on 28th. Is it possible to plan and organize an operation like this so fast?


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## bobbysocks (Mar 4, 2014)

GrauGeist said:


> The 1949 Geneva Conventions state that "it is unlawful for belligerents to* engage in combat *without meeting certain requirements, such as wearing distinctive uniform or other distinctive signs visible at a distance" as well as "Impersonating soldiers of the other side by wearing the enemy’s uniform is allowed, *though fighting in that uniform is unlawful perfidy*"
> 
> "distinctive signs" means national identity (flag or other distinctive, internationally recognized identifier)



i guess you could argue there has not been any "combat" ( at least not yet )....or did i miss something?


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 4, 2014)

marconi said:


> Thanks, GrauGeist.
> Another question then. President Yanukovich fled Kiev on 21th. Manifestations in Sevastopol started on 26th and Crimean Parliament was ceased the next day.Helicopters and cargo planes were firs witnesed on 28th. Is it possible to plan and organize an operation like this so fast?






It's possible, but I would be surprised if it was done on the spur of the moment.

I hope our Ukrainian members and friends stay safe.


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 4, 2014)

".... Never let the facts get in the way of good old jingoism 

Europe will not pay any price to rebuff the Russian Federation, why should it ? The Russians will have their way and we, like good little Princesses, will just have to suck it up. "

Little Princesses in your pink tutu's .... on your knees before Vlad. What a ing image you present, Stona, but no jingoism.


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## bobbysocks (Mar 4, 2014)

remember putin is trained in intelligence analysis as he was a high muckety muck in the former KGB. i think he knows exactly how much he can get away with and how far he can push. he may have to back off a little or all the way but he will still walk away in a better position or get what he wants....having achieved his goal.


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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

Easy on the member sniping, no need for us to dig trenches on site too...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2014)

marconi said:


> Thanks, GrauGeist.
> Another question then. President Yanukovich fled Kiev on 21th. Manifestations in Sevastopol started on 26th and Crimean Parliament was ceased the next day.Helicopters and cargo planes were firs witnesed on 28th. Is it possible to plan and organize an operation like this so fast?


From what I am seeing, this is not a spur-of-the-moment operation. It has the look and feel of a well planned operation. The groups of "pro-Russian" demonstrators that no one had seen before, the sudden appearance of Russian soldiers and ferries of Russian vehicles being landed along with all the other events.

Hopefully this situation will resolve itself quickly and with positive results and hopefully you and your family will be safe.


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## Torch (Mar 4, 2014)

The Russians probably had a plan in place for awhile,they are not stupid. Crimea is huge to them seaport wise. If the Crimea was in the middle of nowhere I doubt there would of been this reaction.

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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

"Sounds like their running an old puppet master program..." to partial quote from Appleseed Deus Ex Machina..


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 4, 2014)

I think the one thing that will happen is Europe will figure out an alternative source of energy.


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## razor1uk (Mar 4, 2014)

Squeeze Energy!? an idea from Tokyo Zombie, there's enough people in the EU to use hand span springs with built in dynamos to charge batteries and capaciters..

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## stona (Mar 5, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> ".... Never let the facts get in the way of good old jingoism
> 
> Europe will not pay any price to rebuff the Russian Federation, why should it ? The Russians will have their way and we, like good little Princesses, will just have to suck it up. "
> 
> Little Princesses in your pink tutu's .... on your knees before Vlad. What a ing image you present, Stona, but no jingoism.



The EU states will act in their own national interests. If that means they have to suck up a de facto Russian occupation of certain parts of the Eastern Ukraine they will. This is realpolitik. The bald facts are that there is nothing the EU or the US can do about it.

So far the biggest 'sanction' suggested (not implemented because Berlin doesn't want it) is the suspension of the Russian Federation's G8 membership. The UK has decided only to send athletes and the associated team members to the Paralympics in Sochi. There will be no ministerial or other official visitors. I bet Putin can hardly believe his luck.

Just because you were unaware of how NATO is financed shouldn't be a reason to attempt a sarcastic tone. The image I present is pretty much what is going to happen.

Cheers

Steve


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 5, 2014)

"... Just because you were unaware of how NATO is financed ...."

Canada'a contribution to NATO is the same as Germany and Italy's _*as a % of GDP*_ ... which is usually how military expenditures are determinned

Member states of NATO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"...The image I present is pretty much what is going to happen."

No one - least of all me - is disputing that image Stona, I just described how it _appears_ ..... another worthless treaty (Budapest memorandum) ... not honored.


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 5, 2014)

".....I think the one thing that will happen is Europe will figure out an alternative source of energy."

I'm waiting for the French to invent fusion with baited breath .... 

All that solar and wind renewable has sure worked out for the EU, hasn't it.

Europe and the UK is sitting on plenty of tight oil and natural gas but they're too fracked up to harness it. The Ukraine has a lots of natural gas but seemingly lacks the initiative to invest in production.


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## stona (Mar 5, 2014)

We are getting side tracked but my figures were for contributions to NATO's three principal budget groups (usually referred to as the 'civil budget', the 'military budget' and the 'NATO security investment programme')
Not all member states contribute the same relative to their GDPs, anymore than all member states spend the same percentage of GDP on their overall defence budgets.

Canada's GDP was about 1.82 trillion US dollars last years compared to 2.46 trillion for the UK. By another popular measure, per capita GDP, Canada's is in fact well ahead of the UK because there are a lot more British than their are Canadians.

There is an international board of auditors for NATO (IBAN) which is supposed to reassure member states that their contributions have been properly spent. The money is actually allocated by a series of boards and committees which is outside the scope of this thread and forum. It is a typically bureaucratically top heavy system.

Cheers

Steve


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## parsifal (Mar 5, 2014)

our national broadcaster should hang its head in embarrassment. it showed vision tonite of unarmed Ukr soldiers being menaced by armed russian sodliers at some base in crimea, then brazenly stated in the news narrative that Ukr soldiers fired on unarmed russian soldiers. It is so wrong, one has to wonder if it is some sort of deliberate misinformation.

i cannot believe it....

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## marconi (Mar 5, 2014)

Putin and his minister of defense claim that armed people in Crimea are not Russian soldiers.


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## stona (Mar 5, 2014)

Nobody believes that though.

We finally have a NATO response. It has announced 'a review of all cooperation' with the Russian Federation. I bet that's got Putin worried. There's nothing like a review of policy to put the wind up the other side 

Cheers

Steve

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## Torch (Mar 5, 2014)

Guards sure sounded Russian when they yelled Stoy(halt) to the Ukraine troops...


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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2014)

stona said:


> Nobody believes that though.
> 
> We finally have a NATO response. It has announced 'a review of all cooperation' with the Russian Federation. I bet that's got Putin worried. There's nothing like a review of policy to put the wind up the other side
> 
> ...


Well, that has to be at least a little scarier than a stern response from the UN!

If Putin isn't careful, the response from the UN may upgrade from stern to sincere!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 5, 2014)

stona said:


> Nobody believes that though.
> 
> We finally have a NATO response. It has announced 'a review of all cooperation' with the Russian Federation. I bet that's got Putin worried. There's nothing like a review of policy to put the wind up the other side
> 
> ...



Next thing you know, we'll undertake an end-to-end audit of paper clips and threaten to run off with the stapler. That'll learn 'em!

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## imalko (Mar 5, 2014)

I'm really sorry for the people of Ukraine and Crimea regardless of their ethnicity. Common people are always the ones who suffer the most. I've seen that first hand in my own country not so long ago. However, I must say this much - western powers should have known that forcibly taking a part of territory from a sovereign country will turn on them like boomerang sooner or later. (I'm talking about western supported so called "independence" of Kosovo from Serbia.) I'm afraid we'll see more of this in the future.

Judge not, lest you be judged by the standards yourself apply.

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## stona (Mar 5, 2014)

imalko said:


> Judge not, lest you be judged by the standards yourself apply.



Yep, Kerry saying ”You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext” is a classic boomerang and true to form it came straight back and hit him in the face. Again, I doubt that Putin could believe his luck.

Western politicians are also describing the Russian action in the Ukraine as a 'violation of international law'. There are echoes there of the UN General Assembly calling the US action in Grenada 'a flagrant violation of international law'.

Pots and kettles need to be wary when calling each other black

Cheers

Steve

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## fastmongrel (Mar 5, 2014)

In the next 6 months a bankrupt Ukraine will default on its debts there will be chaos and the Russians will step in to take control and impose order. Within a year a new govt will be in place and Russia will own the Ukraine whatever flag flies in Kiev. Next will be Transnistria then probably Georgia across the former Soviet Union (Tsarist Empire) people must be wondering if history is going into reverse.

The West thinks it won the Cold War but it didnt that was just an inter bellum Cold War 2.0 is going to be coming soon and the US/Europe has neither the money nor the will to spend it. All the while China sits, watches and plays the long game.

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## michaelmaltby (Mar 5, 2014)

Very sad .... very true, I'm afraid. What would Finland do in a similar situation, I ask myself. I believe the Finns would not get their country into that state of indebtedness ... which is a fateful weakness for any country ... especially a country so compromised by geopolitics and economic/energy integration with its predatory neighbor .... Europe and America's statesmen and women are being schooled out behind the woodshed by Putin ... and all will have to wear this humiliation.

When I chat with my 25 year-old ex-Leningrader service tech at Mr. Lube while he's servicing the Jeep I ask how he likes Canada. He shrugs and smiles cynically and replies "young kids in Canada just want to smoke dope and play video games" ... and I'm afraid he's right in large part .... We i_nvent_ things to be afraid of .... climate change, polar bear extinction, poison CO2 levels, conspiracy theories, etc. etc. and yet are uneducated and naive _to our peril_ about the _real _dangers in the world ..... for instance: debt and addiction aren't lifestyle choices .. they are life or death choices.

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## meatloaf109 (Mar 5, 2014)

Money, oil, power.
Power, oil, money.
Oil, money, power.
There are no politics, just the same old, same old things.
The big impose on the small.
Call it what you will,... It is the same old thing.
And the world continues to turn....

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## razor1uk (Mar 7, 2014)

And now for a little refreshement..

_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnLewXuZuLo_

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 7, 2014)

Just posted this on my Facebook page via Eric...

"Putin should come to realize that, whatever his grievances, a policy of military impositions would produce another Cold War. For its part, the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently taught rules of conduct established by Washington. Putin is a serious strategist — on the premises of Russian history. Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits. Nor has understanding Russian history and psychology been a strong point of U.S. policymakers."

Henry Kissinger: To settle the Ukraine crisis, start at the end - The Washington Post

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## razor1uk (Mar 7, 2014)

I'd say Kissinger has hit the nail with that article. I also think that the belligerent on all sides inside and outside of Ukraine don't want a middleway policy - why can't they be allowed to have links to both east and west to be the 'trader' between EU CIS markets!?

[quote="Henry A. Kissinger was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977 -end of article]
...Leaders of all sides should return to examining outcomes, not compete in posturing. Here is my notion of an outcome compatible with the values and security interests of all sides:

1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.

2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.

3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country. Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland. 
That (Finland/Suomi) nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility toward Russia.

4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. 
Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.

These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough.[/quote]

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 7, 2014)

I could see this pushing the Ukraine into wanting to join NATO.

With Putin threating to nationalize US Companies, I'm sure the potential investments into the country are going to take a hit at least in the short term.


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## meatloaf109 (Mar 8, 2014)

There is no way that this is not a political subject, So let me shut this down.
Putin and the Russian mindset do not understand how the U.S. and the NATO view things, and the U.S. and NATO do not understand how Russians view things.
We are working at cross purposes here.

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## Njaco (Mar 8, 2014)

Can't we send Dennis Rodman over to solve everything? I think he is out of rehab now.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2014)

Njaco said:


> Can't we send Dennis Rodman over to solve everything? I think he is out of rehab now.


I thought he was over in North Korea hangin' with his home-biscuit Kim Jong

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## syscom3 (Mar 9, 2014)

Not our fight. End of story.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 10, 2014)

I read recently that Russia was going to commemorate 100 years since the outbreak of the Great War with a full scale re-enactment...

This is something I posted on another forum, someone had mentioned the West's inactivity in Syria and now the Ukraine:

The difference between Putin and Obama is a matter of maturity. Putin is behaving like a spoilt child and Obama a stern adult. The Russians behave in extremes; their entire history is littered with examples of proving their 'toughness', like school-yard bullies. Like minded idiots like George Dubya would be marching into Syria as we speak, creating even more havoc and a humanitarian crisis of unbelieveable proportions in the Middle East - again, not to mention what the destabilisation of the Assad regime will do; more civil war, more deaths, more Al Qaeda support in that region - it doesn't stop once Assad goes, the killing continues as each of the factions whose common enemy has been defeated out-kill each other for supremacy. Its a matter of "Do you want the Aladeen news or the Aladeen news?" Its not good either way, so Assad has to stay for the time being and the West has to impose economic sanctions against Russia. That's all it can do.

I read an analysts view of the crisis in the Ukraine; he claimed that the Ukrainian government should let Russia have the Crimea and its pro Russian population can be isolated from the Ukraine that will enjoy the benefits of aligning itself with Western Europe, including financial support for its ailing economy and direct trade with Europe and by extension, the rest of the world. After a few years, the Crimea, part of an economically sick Russia will look over at their better-off cousins in the rest of the Ukraine and get impatient with their situation, which might lead them to change their minds as to whom they align themselves with. 

Hell, put a wall down the middle and see how many Crimeans decide to 'escape to the West'. One fact that is often overlooked about East and West Germany, between the end of WW2 and 1989, when the Berlin wall came down, the movement of East Germans to the West was the greatest single migration of humans in modern history; some four million plus people changed allegiances in that time for a better, less restrictive life.


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## parsifal (Mar 10, 2014)

meatloaf109 said:


> There is no way that this is not a political subject, So let me shut this down.
> Putin and the Russian mindset do not understand how the U.S. and the NATO view things, and the U.S. and NATO do not understand how Russians view things.
> We are working at cross purposes here.



it is a political thread, of sorts, but for once we are not at each others throats on political lines.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2014)

Surprisingly...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 10, 2014)

Well, the situation in the Crimea is a complex one. Allowing Putin to succeed in taking the Crimea (for whatever the current excuse is...it keeps changing) is just a "foot in the door".

The Ukraine is actually the birthplace of Russia. Most of the greatest battles fought in Russia's history happened in that region. The Russian Orthodox church has it's roots in the region and so on and so on.

There's already Russian troops on Ukraine soil, not just the Crimea. 

With Putin's sentiments that the breakup of the Soviet Union being one ofnthe greatest tragedies in history, he is going to test the waters. If he is successful in nibbling away at the Ukraine's soverign territory like he is, then what's to stop him from going after any other region that has "Russian speaking" populations that need his "help", as was the case with the Crimea. Bear in mind that the demonstrations and unrest was in Kiev, not the Crimea. Putin said he was getting involved because of the demonstrations and unrest, but that was in Kiev and the mainland...it had nothing to do with the Crimea, and yet there they are...

So how about the other Russian speaking populations, like in Belarus, Rumania, Lithuania and Poland? Will they be next?

Looks a little like the late 1930's and "Lebensraum", doesn't it?

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## Torch (Mar 10, 2014)

Well my thought is with the history of that region,I know Poland etc. must be watching with interest on how the west handles the situation. Right now I'm sure they are squirming a bit.


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## razor1uk (Mar 10, 2014)

Europe is all secretly squirmingly, like the silent farted only to realise that they feel slightly damper and warmer than they should if it were just gas. 

The Ghost of Stalin allegedly seems to be rising with a skinhead, combined star and hakkenkruez tattoos, with a revisionised history (unfortunately many other countries espouse their own alt-histories), amnesia of the past in rose gilded delusions of grandeur and sexual schitzophrenia (not with their mother.. less Freud, more Pavlov) 
This alleged kid (the 'mob' of the countries mindset) is the product of a seriously tormented upbringing and has many hidden issues, with calmer individuals that many remain silent to hide from the zealots the violent.

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## parsifal (Mar 10, 2014)

ukrainian independance in my opinion is similar to the Scottish independance movement. It makes no sense from an economic perspective, for either side, but politically and emotively independance is important. The ukraine has proven to be an economic basket case with deep seated corruption problems within the regime. The Ukraininan state has proven too communally immature to be able to make a go of democracy.

im not excusing what the Russians are doing in any way, and there is no comparison in some respects with the UK and Eastern Europe. British society to me is much more politically mature, and might handle separation better.


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## bobbysocks (Mar 10, 2014)

"_Understanding U.S. values and psychology are not his strong suits_."

i dont believe that statement is entirely accurate. he may not know what the average us citizen may want for breakfast but he knows enough about us policy and the values to make informed decisions in cases like this. the only nullifier would be if he lets his ego get into the way of his years of experience and training...i dont think that is the case but who knows and history bears him out. in 08 russia invaded georgia and what happened? putin and russia paid dearly for this....not. we will in all likelihood react in the same manner....and the result will probably be the same. i dont believe occupation is the goal but the bargaining chip. putin may pull out ( as opposed to being forced out as in georgia ) but he will have gained whatever strategic goal(s) he had in mind. 

and so we will send kissinger in to negotiate....the last big conflict he negotiated was the end of the vietman war........

What Russia?s invasion of Georgia means for Crimea


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 10, 2014)

I think in the long term, Ukraine will join NATO and Europe will wean itself from relying on Russia for energy. IMHO Putin is shooting himself in the foot.

Certainly has the makings of another Cold War.


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## razor1uk (Mar 19, 2014)

Well In the last day or two, either pro-russian 'defence' groups or russian forces have tussled with trapped Ukrainian military persons in Crimea, killing at least one, capturing another and perhaps wounding another still; captured or attemted to infiltrate and sieze Ukrainian military bases not already held by the Vladamirist forces.

Ukrainian provisional government has issued orders for armed defence upon the death of one of its own, which initially Moscow claimed as a Russians death; could they have been an ethnic russian who was pro-Ukraine, its anyones guess?

The Vladimirists seen to love the attention they are getting in the media still, seems hopefully thats all they crave more than the East of the rest of Ukraine.

Other countries groupings are formulating further restrictions upon them that apparently will be very tough and leave Vladimirland 'isolated' if you ignore the rest of world apart from the G7 EU. 
That is as it seems Russia is out of all the 'G' clubs now.

Perhaps well stop selling their expensive vodka and stop trading them Lucky Strike and B&H, while hoping they don't switch the oil and gas off instantly; if they give us enough time to find and arrange other gas oil suppliers first...

EU member states should maybe mentally prepare for possible worst case of having to perhaps mobilise something apart from some of their government members rhetoric.

The UK has suspended all military and planned military/defence manouvers with Russians - apparently we have stopped supplying them with cloth material for making uniforms -if that's all we aid them with, then that sounds very 'Swiss' like indeed for the UK usual involvement.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2014)

There has been reports of Russian military trying to board and seize Ukranian Navy vessels now...

When the Ukranian Naval vessels tried to leave port, Russian warships blocked them.

Wonder how that would work out if a Turkish ship or one from another country came to escort the Ukranian ships out of port?


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## razor1uk (Mar 19, 2014)

Apparently, us or the US might try to send some naval vessels into the Black Sea, though they could get blockaided at the Hellspont..
This tune is semi peaceful, with his abstact lyrical references relative to the situation.

_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spH8llerrM4_


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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2014)

razor1uk said:


> Apparently, us or the US might try to send some naval vessels into the Black Sea, though they could get blockaided at the Hellspont..



The 6th Fleet is in the region as it stands. Plenty of muscle if it comes down to a hitting match, the 6th Fleet is based out of Naples.

There were two U.S. Naval vessels in the Black Sea during the Sochi games, laying off the coast helping with security. One of the ships had to lay over in Turkey due to a damaged prop (USS Taylor) and is still there undertaking repairs.

Apparently, Turkey has given permission for U.S. warships to pass the Bosphorus, though not not a carrier as some "sources" claim. First off, bringing a carrier into the Black Sea would hamper it's ability to avoid attack and would be provocative by it's presence alone. In the unlikely event a shooting match breaks out, ground-based aircraft will be the best assets in this situation.

I would think that a local (Rumania, Turkey, Bulgaria) presence to deter Russian aggression against Ukranian naval assets would be better than having a U.S. or Royal Navy ship escort the Ukrainian ships out of port. That would be more of a local show of support than "western meddling" as they're calling it.


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## razor1uk (Mar 19, 2014)

Well if the Russ keep taunting, goading and trying to push the so far extremely steadfast (and more and more seemingly innocently non-beligerent) Ukrainians much further, then a Russian mil' person could die and give Vladamirists their reason and goal for the whole pantomime - the rest of the World better be ready for a new pre-WW2 repeat of Hitlers ego, false promises treaty breakages prior to European War.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2014)

there's already been shots exchanged, a few injured and at least one killed.

Also heard that Ukranian sailors have tossed several grenades at Russians trying to seize the bottled-up Ukrainian ships.

This whole mess is one bigass powder-keg with too many fuses dangling...


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## razor1uk (Mar 19, 2014)

Bloomberg News just announced moments ago, Ukraine to remove UKR Troops from Crimea, and to seek compensation for Russian seized assets within the Crimea, and to ask for it to become demilitarised outside of the military bases.

Yes, unfortunatly a UKR Senior Warrent Officer was killed, and a Commander was wounded and taken to hospital/captured


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## Shinpachi (Mar 20, 2014)

Chaos is always the best chance for its aggressive neighbors to put influence militarily and politically.

In August 1945 when Japan was in chaos losing the war, Soviet Union suddenly occupied Japanese northern territory of Kuril Islands.
However, it was unable to occupy Japanese mainland because US troops + other allied troops were advancing there.

Seeing the Ukraine situation from the far-east, Ukraine has no time to shout or cry but accept NATO as soon as possible.


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## parsifal (Mar 20, 2014)

They accepted NATO gurantees in 1992. They have proven to be hollow promises

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## Shinpachi (Mar 20, 2014)

Even if a country has guts enough to fight, it does not necessarily mean victory.
No guts? No future.

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## razor1uk (Mar 20, 2014)

If the guts have become emptied before/during confrontation, then they cannot be emptied again. ..until that is, victory feeds them, since death will leave them forever empty.
..or..
A wounded animal that is trapped is more likely to be greater in its ferociousness. 

Of course how what the metaphorical animal is relation to the other is very important in this concept; a trapped wounded and angry kitten against a one eyed old badger, or a bottle of beer vs. an hypothermic arthritic hand with only a short handled opener..
The Telegraph, Ukraine-Live


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## Rogi (Mar 21, 2014)

It depends what side you take, I can see merits from both views, technicly originally Protestors didn't agree with the Presidents view to take a deal with Russia and this is what it all started, these weren't peaceful protests from either side, so who can you blame? Who fired first we will never know and what occurred after is tragic, not only for Ukraine as a country, but for the world. 

If the "world" went on Ukraine's side there isn't really anything Russia could do, but then again now a days everyone is so economically tied together that doing one thing to hurt someone would impact a friend or foe down the line. 

Whoever you agree with, either way it isn't a good situation and only a small step in a wrong direction can turn sour  I just hope that there is a peaceful situation on all sides.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 21, 2014)

I've been reading up on it and it seems the Ukraine is better off without them, they (Crimea) appear to be a black hole in needing money.


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## parsifal (Mar 21, 2014)

Dont be fooled by that. Holding the Crimea gives two definite advantages for the Russians, firstly the finest naval base and attendant shipyards in the region. That IS the reason they are risking so much to capture it. Controlling Sevastopol will solve many problems that they have regarding Turkish (and other nations) intransigence (For example, in 1997 I think, when they were towing one of their Kiev class carriers to china, the Turks messed about and did not allow the ship to pass through the Bosphorus, for ages. If an effective Russian fleet had been stationed in the Black Sea, this might not have happened.....there was a fleet there, but it was basically immobilised because it had no dockyard support).

The second reason why they are so strongly going after it is because of the potential oil reserves in the Crimea and off the Black Sea Coat. The more coast you control, the more claim to ocean oil can be made. 

Russians are interested in eastern ukraine for similar reasons. Its the regions greatest producer of iron and coal and I suspect they want it back. Ethnically its about 50/50 Russian/Ukrainian and politically about 60/40 pro russian over the west leaning Ukrainians

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## bobbysocks (Mar 23, 2014)

a warm water port is extremely important and something they lost with the break up. putin is on record as saying the worse thing that happened to russia was the break up.....so as the grand pubba do you think he might be trying to fix that? some in the ukraine are now saying they did the west ( and the world a favor ) by getting rid of their nukes but that put them in a vunerable position and the west is giving them up now. they say if they still had them they would not have been invaded.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2014)

That's a very interesting thought. They also sold their Carrier to China.

At work we received a notice or no shipments to Russia without special approval

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2014)

Then again, if the Ukraine kept their nuclear arsenal, Putin could make the excuse to invade the Ukraine because of the nukes.

And even if Putin keeps the Crimea and plans to beef up his Black Sea fleet, he would still have to get his warships past Turkey.

Turkey has also made a statement warning Putin about the safety of the Tartars in Crimea following the beating-murder of a Tartar leader there, that there will be an immediate and severe response if any more come to harm.


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2014)

I am in Germany at the moment. If Europe had a piece of military equipmet in place of every pundit expousing his/her opinion across the continent then Putin wouldn't do anything. Sadly they will talk the glass eye to sleep while Putin does as he likes.


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## bobbysocks (Apr 13, 2014)

this is getting more stlicky by the day. 3 more bordering provences of the ukraine have had upheavals with pro-soviet demonstrators taking government buildings in some cases and proclaiming the establishment of "republics"...and calling for a referendium on joining russia take place by may 11...2 weeks prior to the presidential elections. more of these masked and well armed "local militias" are showing up in these areas. putin has started moves to russian financial self-reliance.....they will now pay for everything in rubles...not dollars, the banks have been instructed to make a "russian" nationwide electronis payment system...to oust visa, mastercard, etc and keep everything inhouse...he has told russian business to de-list from the dow and nasdaq and is having a rating system designed for russian debt and securities...which has institutions like S&P, moodys, and fitches threatening to downgrade the russian economy ( dont think putin is scared ). he is disconnecting from the rest of the world moneywise while blaming the west for medling in the ukraines affairs ( dang it sounds like the good old soviets of days gone by ). will be interesting to see IF the may 25th elections are disrupted or he makes a big move before then...i am guessing so. it isnt in his interest to see if those border provences come out in mass and possibly vote for a pro west leader.....


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## GrauGeist (Apr 13, 2014)

They are now re-examining the TU-154 crash of 2010 that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife and most of Poland's ministers.

He was very critical of Putin and even warned that unless countries took a hard stance against Putin (in reference to Russia's actions aganst Georgia), Putin's agression _"would extend to Ukraine, the Baltics, and possibly Poland as well."_

One of many critics of the crash investigation, is Physicist Kazimierz Nowaczyk. He explains:


> On April 10, 2010 at 10:41 a.m. Polish Air Force Flight 101 crashed several hundred meters short of the Smolensk runway in dense fog. Within hours the Russian government issued a statement citing the incident on pilot error. Russia’s final report on the incident blamed the late President Kaczyński and his “inebriated” air force commander-in-chief for using “psychological pressure” to force the Polish pilots to land in a low-visibility environment.
> 
> The plane’s black boxes, laptops, sensitive documents, mobile phones, address books, telephone numbers, correspondence, and the top-secret military, NATO and diplomatic codes on board were salvaged from crash site immediately by the Kremlin’s operatives in what was a “coup for Russia’s intelligence service” according to retired CIA analyst Gene Poteat. What Nowaczyk calls “years worth of work for security services” was completed in a single day by Russia’s OMON Special Purpose Police, which were immediately deployed to the site.





> “From our point of view this report was full of mistakes,” Nowaczyk explains, citing various inconsistencies and contradictions in the official narrative. A key issue raised by Nowaczyk’s committee and the many online forums dedicated to the crash is that the amount of debris found at the site—an estimated 60,000 aircraft fragments—would be impossible in the case of a simple plane crash. He cites the 1988 Lockerbie bombing and the 1996 TWA 800 flight out of New York, both of which exploded in the air but had only 11,000 aircraft fragments and 3,168 fragments respectively. Both planes were reconstructed to 95 percent completion. Nowaczyk believes that an explosion caused the fragmentation of the Polish president’s plane. In the official report the plane’s black boxes indicate that the aircraft’s electricity was cut two to three seconds before the crash, which Nowaczyk believes also was caused by that explosion.



Makes a person wonder...


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

I've said it before and I'll say it again. There is no real hard, that is military, option for NATO.
No two nuclear armed belligerents have ever directly fought each other and they are not about to start doing it now over some Ukrainian territory no matter how heated the rhetoric from Washington and elsewhere might get. Does anyone seriously believe that the Korean 'Police Action' would have taken place if China had a nuclear capability at that time ?
Good grief, even Pakistan and India have stopped anything above border skirmishes, usually involving irregular forces, since they both acquired a nuclear capability !
Russia got what it wanted in the Crimea and will probably succeed in other Ukrainian territory too. See my post #7
Cheers
Steve


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## fastmongrel (Apr 14, 2014)

Its ironic in 1992 when the Ukraine voted for independence there was a 92% vote in favour of Ukraine. Even in the most Russian part Crimea it was 65% in favour of independence and 80% in the areas now boiling over. The people now screaming for papa Vladimir to rescue them from the evil west might come to regret throwing independence away so quickly. 

The best thing Europe can do now is rescue the Ukraine and build it up to be a functioning democracy with a thriving economy,


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 14, 2014)

"....The best thing Europe can do now is rescue the Ukraine and build it up to be a functioning democracy with a thriving economy....."

Details to follow ..._ hard_ details to follow ... I'm hoping, , but _Europe_ has shot itself in the foot on energy policy .... as has Ukraine .... so I fear the blind leading the blind.

Rather, I think Europe is going to learn once more that nasty, shady, bullying plays go on under Europe's collective nose ... Europe's consciousness ... and Europe sucks it up ... and carries on.

MM
Proud Canadian


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

The reasonable threat comes from NATO. Everything else, sanctions, embargos etc are ineffective and largely rhetoric, whether from the EU or Washington. Putin can and will ignore it. 

In 2008 the Ukraine was a NATO membership candidate, this option was finally ditched in 2010 by the Ukraine itself which decided to remain 'non-aligned'. Last time I looked Canada was a full member of NATO. There were Canadian forces involved in operations in Libya, any plans to send some to sort out Putin?

'Nasty, shady, bullying plays' go on all over the world under the noses of every major power (or power bloc), often at their behest. Intervention, if it occurs, is always in the interest of the powerful, never the 'poor oppressed people of.....fill in as appropriate'. 

Cheers

Steve


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## pbehn (Apr 14, 2014)

I have a bad feeling about all this. Europe is collectively impotent and foolish, if indeed "Europe" exists at all except of a map.

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## michaelmaltby (Apr 14, 2014)

".... any plans to send some to sort out Putin?..."

I assume you mean _energy_, Stona, since that _is_ the root of the problem.


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## parsifal (Apr 14, 2014)

I think the ukraine is a most unhappy place at the moment. It declared independance in 1992 with great hopes of a better future, and a historic and intense dislike of the Russians. Ethnically however it was a deeply divided country, with sharp and serious ethnic divisions. Crimea was never part of the Ukraine, having been colonised with ethnic Russians by Peter the Great, and a smattering of indigenous Tartars. Crimean desire to leeave the Ukraine is genuine.

What has soured Ukrainian politics is a mix of really poor internal politics and corruption, a state of neglect by their new western frinds,, and Russia enerrgy policy toward them. Ukrainans until independance had enjoyed cheap energy like the rest of the Union. After independance the Russians began charging full market price, and this really upset the Ukrainains. they wanted independance, and cheap energy....the best of both worlds, and attempted to blackmail the Russians by blockading the pipeline and basically stealing gas. The Russians, and Germany built alternative pipelines around the Ukraine, so the Ukrainians were forced to back down

Russians then started to get nasty. This is not a straight up fight between the goodies and the baddies. Both are mostly baddies, with Eupe and the US being acquiescent on most issues. The Russians are now openly fomenting unrest in the eastern part of the country, where ethinc Russians make up about 40% of the population, and are now using energy as a wepon. they are now charging the Ukrainians about double the price of the rest of Euope for energy, and many Ukrainans are really worried about what happens in winter for heating. Russians are offering cheap energy for any region wanting to join them. Very nasty politics.


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

No, I mean the means to sort out Putin. Canada can do no more about it than the US or EU. The rest of the world is impotent. Even China has abstained in UN voting on resolutions against the Russian Federation leaving Putin politically isolated. The trouble is he doesn't care and he _will_ call everyone's bluff. 
This is not a 'European' problem, it wasn't just the European Union that backed Ukrainian independence back in 1991/2. The Western world as a whole had its own agenda in its decision to support the Ukraine in this move and don't be naïve enough to believe that it was some airy fairy democratic principles that drove agenda. The pigeons are now coming home to roost.

The only thing that will give the Russians cause to pause is a credible military threat and that is not going to materialise as none of the western powers who comprise NATO have the stomach for it. NATO ended up committing nearly 1,000 aircraft against Serbia, a country of 10 million people covering barely 40,000 square miles. Even the Pentagon was taken aback when Clark asked for the aircraft carrier Enterprise to join Eisenhower. It took nearly 80 days to convince the Serbs to give up and at no point did the air assault seriously effect Serb ground operations, ethnic cleansing proceeded as planned.
A coalition of the world's most powerful air forces had bombed and shot up the hapless armed forces of a helpless nation which had no real means to defend itself. Even so it took twice as long to force Milosevic to give up than to force Saddam Hussein to do the same. 

It is important to learn from history and acknowledge one's own limitations if that is the lesson it holds. Nobody can seriously believe that there is any will to take on the Russians by air let alone with boots on the ground. 

Cheers

Steve


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 14, 2014)

Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.

The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.
> 
> The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.



With that I agree. It's not just the Ukraine that depends on Russia for its energy needs, another reason why Putin will get away with this. The EU's response has included freezing the funds of some of Putins so called friends in foreign accounts, many in London. If this wasn't so desperate it would be laughable and at the first opportunity I guarantee these funds will be moved elsewhere.

The pathetic details can be viewed here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/financial-sanctions-ukraine

Cheers

Steve

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## pbehn (Apr 14, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> Any nation needs to address its energy needs realistically. Ukraine hasn't ... and it's beholden to a bully.
> 
> The eastern part of the country will go the way Crimea has gone and Putin will have won. Any country which has its energy supplies in Putin's hands would do well to take note.


Michael it isnt new I expect things will move quickly on this now Nabucco pipeline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia , I was involved in Audits 4 years ago

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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 14, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> Who's up on the International Space station right now ....?



Michael, two '_Russians'_, Alexander Skvortsov, and ethnic Latvian Oleg Artemyev are apparently currently on board although many Ukrainina astronauts have preceded him during the USSR days. Most recently a Ukrainian astronaut, Leonid Kadeniuk, flew on the Space Shuttle (STS-87) in 1997. I don't know whether any currently active _Russian_ cosmonauts are ukrainian descent. 

Interesting scenario, a shoot out on ISS between an ethnic Uk and Russian cosmonaut with collateral harm to the US on bystander hiding in the storage locker. 

Energy? 

France has 75% of its energy supplied by Nuclear power plants. The world should be mass producing quantities of new Gen-4 breeder nuc-plants without pressure vessel containment and characterized by minimal, short-duration radioactive waste. JMHO. But of course, the world, haunted by overblown press reports of the disasters at the old and outdated plants at Chernobyl and Daiichi doesn't want to hear about new nuclear development.


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> France has 75% of its energy supplied by Nuclear power plants. The world should be mass producing quantities of new Gen-4 breeder nuc-plants without pressure vessel containment and characterized by minimal, short-duration radioactive waste. JMHO. But of course, the world, haunted by overblown press reports of the disasters at the old and outdated plants at Chernobyl and Daiichi doesn't want to hear about new nuclear development.



The nuclear option will eventually be forced on the developed world. Let's be honest, wind farms and solar panels just aren't going to do it.

Germany gets roughly 40% of its oil and gas via the Ukraine. The Germans will tread very carefully there and they carry much weight in the EU.

Cheers

Steve


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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2014)

Moving under the auspices of "protecting ethnic speaking populations" isn't a new ruse. It's been done before.

Nibbling away at "lost territories" that contained ethnic populations while the leaders of countries rattled their sabres and spoke of consequences seems like a Deja Vue, doesn't it?


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 14, 2014)

"...France has 75% of its energy supplied by Nuclear power plants. The world should be mass producing quantities of new Gen-4 breeder nuc-plants without pressure vessel containment and characterized by minimal, short-duration radioactive waste. JMHO. But of course, the world, haunted by overblown press reports of the disasters at the old and outdated plants at Chernobyl and Daiichi doesn't want to hear about new nuclear development."

I agree. Nuclear energy has not had the proper "image management" by its proponents ..... sadly.


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> Nuclear energy has not had the proper "image management" by its proponents ..... sadly.



True, but Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukishima and numerous other smaller scale accidents (like at our own Windscale reactor fire) have pandered to the fears of an anti nuclear lobby which has exploited such incidents to the full.
A bigger problem is that nuclear power is expensive, not just in terms of building and running the reactors, which are not major costs, but in storing waste and ultimately de-commissioning obsolete reactors. The cost is a bullet yet to be bitten.
Cheers
Steve


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## Shinpachi (Apr 14, 2014)

Other future energy choice will be geothermal.
There are vast heats under the crust. Positive research and developments are going on in my country.


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## stona (Apr 14, 2014)

Shinpachi said:


> Other future energy choice will be geothermal.
> There are vast heats under the crust. Positive research and experiments are going on in my country.



It is one of the advantages of living in a geologically active zone ! Obviously volcanos and earth quakes might be considered a down side 

Iceland produces a substantial portion of it's energy requirements, approaching 30%, from its geothermal power plants.

It's worth remembering that the eruption in Iceland of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in just four days negated every single effort we have made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet. Mt Pinatubo's 1991 eruption ejected more green house gases into the atmosphere than mankind has since he first lit a fire. It also ejected vast quantities of SO2 which actually led to a slight global cooling. There are roughly 200 active volcanos on the planet. Complicated stuff the climate 

Cheers

Steve

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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 14, 2014)

stona said:


> True, but Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukishima and numerous other smaller scale accidents (like at our own Windscale reactor fire) have pandered to the fears of an anti nuclear lobby which has exploited such incidents to the full.
> A bigger problem is that nuclear power is expensive, not just in terms of building and running the reactors, which are not major costs, but in storing waste and ultimately de-commissioning obsolete reactors. The cost is a bullet yet to be bitten.
> Cheers
> Steve



The waste issue is one of the advantages of the Gen-4 nuclear breeder reactors. They burn the waste for fuel what remains is a very small percent with a far shorter half life. The main trouble is that while prototypes have been demonstrated, they won't be available for another decade at least. 

Generation IV reactor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

also an interesting documentary film: _Pandora's Promise_ 
criticism of the obviously somewhat biased but informative film are directed at comparisons to *current *nuclear power generation and ignore the potential benefits of future Gen 4 innovation.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2014)

Fortunately, today's technology means for safer operation of nuclear plants.

In Southern California, the San Onofre nuclear plant operated for the duration of it's planned life without incident and then shut down when it reached the end of it's useful life. They then considered the idea of putting it back into service because of increasing demands for energy in the Southland and after long and careful inspections they came to the conclusion that it was so well built, that they decided to put it back on line after a refit.


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## pbehn (Apr 14, 2014)

Shinpachi said:


> Other future energy choice will be geothermal.
> There are vast heats under the crust. Positive research and developments are going on in my country.



I think Mount Fuji gave you a clue there Shinpachi.


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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 14, 2014)

GrauGeist said:


> Fortunately, today's technology means for safer operation of nuclear plants.
> 
> In Southern California, the San Onofre nuclear plant operated for the duration of it's planned life without incident and then shut down when it reached the end of it's useful life. They then considered the idea of putting it back into service because of increasing demands for energy in the Southland and after long and careful inspections they came to the conclusion that it was so well built, that they decided to put it back on line after a refit.



Your post make me curious about the plant. 

Coming on line in 1968 I guess it's an early generation II reactor. 

Just found this TV report from March 12, 2014: seems to suggest the plant will not be reactivated. sad to say… was that plant a 'model' for the China Syndrome film?

Edison to Submit Plan to Shut Down San Onofre Nuclear Plant | NBC Southern California


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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2014)

Notice how the earthquake scare tend to creep into the report?

What they aren't saying, is that San Onofre has handle two major earthquakes (Sylmar, Northridge) and many lesser magnitude quakes (Newport, Whittier, etc.) without a hitch. It was design with earthquakes in mind.


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## pbehn (Apr 14, 2014)

The problem with Nuclear is it isnt allowed to make a mistake. Windscale still has radioactive contamination, Chernobyl and Fukushima show that you cannot make a mistake from start to finish you must know all possibilities that are possible and some possiblities that seem impossible. Also it costs about 10 times more to de commission a plant than to build it and no one knows how to "cost" storing the waste for as long as "homo sapiens" have ever lived.


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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 14, 2014)

pbehn said:


> The problem with Nuclear is it *isnt allowed to make a mistake*. Windscale still has *radioactive contamination*, Chernobyl and Fukushima show that you cannot make a mistake from start to finish you must know all possibilities that are possible and some possiblities that seem impossible. Also it *costs about 10 times more* to de commission a plant than to build it and no one knows how to "cost" *storing the waste for as long as "homo sapiens" have ever lived*.



The problem is now, that the belief that the "_no allowable mistake_" and the other issues such as waste disposal and longevity of early methods extends to the new Gen 4 plants which are passive in design and do not produce anything like the old light water plants. Power failures to cooling pumps is no longer an issue in the new designs and that's been the major source of all the past problems. Virtually every objection you have raised pertains to the old technology. There can be no Chernobyls or Fukushima failures in the new designs. They just don't operate in the same way. The choice to build the safe reactors was always there from the beginning and many advocated to do so but the Gen I thru III reactors had weapon value and so that was the technology chosen. The new reactor designs are relatively useless for weapons purposes and some designs cannot be used for weapons under any circumstances. 

It's not the same nuclear as your father knew. 

from the same wiki page previously cited:

"_Relative to current nuclear power plant technology, the claimed benefits for 4th generation reactors include:

*Nuclear waste that remains radioactive for a few centuries instead of millennia *
*100-300 times more energy yield from the same amount of nuclear fuel *
The ability to consume existing nuclear waste in the production of electricity
Improved operating safety_" {my comment: as in _*passively safe*_. any power failure it shuts itself down without a post shutdown cooling issue) 

The wiki page suggests these are _claims_ but at least two of these reactors have been prototyped and extensively tested decades earlier and proven to be viable but they were not pursued for a variety of commercial, political and military reasons. 
The fuel processing industry was established and didn't like the new technology which would have undercut its business and could lobby effectively to block its implementation. The military had little use for a reactor that couldn't be used to produce weapons grade fissile materiel and promoted the use of the current technology. Now, the mere mention of the word 'nuclear' makes people react strongly negative based on their past perception or even understanding of the technology.


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 14, 2014)

"....A bigger problem is that nuclear power is expensive"

No it's expensive to _maintain_ ..... and now we know _that_ .... and can budget for that. Nuclear is a natural ... with effective management. But the "big lie" of nuclear is the paranoia about radiation. There are general documented health benefits from radiation .... if it hasn't killed you.

BACK TO TOPIC
I think it's time for NATO observers .... deploying along the east-west dividing line (that the elected Gov't is going to have to secede to the Russian mob) ... to identify who these un-uniformed activists are that are over-throwing local governments. And to say to Europe and the world ... we're boots-on-th-ground, Vlad.

We (NATO) must _escalate_ this .... rationally


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## GregP (Apr 15, 2014)

Yes, make it STOP.


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## stona (Apr 15, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> BACK TO TOPIC
> I think it's time for NATO observers .... deploying along the east-west dividing line (that the elected Gov't is going to have to secede to the Russian mob) ... to identify who these un-uniformed activists are that are over-throwing local governments. And to say to Europe and the world ... we're boots-on-th-ground, Vlad.
> 
> We (NATO) must _escalate_ this .... rationally



Some have called for UN rather than NATO observers, but it won't happen. At the moment the EU is imposing financial and other restrictions on a few more Russians (not even the Russian Federation itself) and talking about extending sanctions with no precise details about exactly how and what. The idea that you can somehow divert Putin from his objectives by inconveniencing a few Russian oligarchs is preposterous. It's difficult to believe that even those in the EU who came up with the idea believe it is anything more than tokenism.

The White House is blustering and doing absolutely nothing.

There is no stomach in the West for any kind of physical intervention, UN or otherwise, and it will not happen. Putin knows this as well as anybody. Even if some weeks or months down the line the threat is made he will call the bluff. The western powers know this too, and don't want to make themselves look even more ridiculous and impotent by forcing him to do it.

Cheers

Steve


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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2014)

Just saw on the news where a Russian jet was buzzing a U.S. destroyer off the coast of Romania. The destroyer went on alert and warned the jet to back off, which it ignored and continued buzzing it. Fortunately, the destroyer identified it as unarmed and didn't splash it.

Not a very intelligent thing to be doing, considering the tensions in the area at the moment.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/04/14/pentagon-russians-black-sea/7700777/


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 15, 2014)

Sukoi Fencer


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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 15, 2014)

GrauGeist said:


> Just saw on the news where a Russian jet was buzzing a U.S. destroyer off the coast of Romania. The destroyer went on alert and warned the jet to back off, which it ignored and continued buzzing it. Fortunately, the destroyer identified it as unarmed and didn't splash it.
> 
> Not a very intelligent thing to be doing, considering the tensions in the area at the moment.
> 
> Pentagon says Russian jet buzzed U.S. warship



Did someone at the Russian air base not get the word? If intentional, this kind of '_minor_' provocative event with potentially incendiary consequences suggests to me that those who characterize Putin as a coldly calculating KGB operative are off the mark; while those that see him as a classic unrepentant bully are spot on. If he is both, so much the worse for the Ukraine and others but bullies too often miscalculate.


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## pbehn (Apr 15, 2014)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> Did someone at the Russian air base not get the word? If intentional, this kind of '_minor_' provocative event with potentially incendiary consequences suggests to me that those who characterize Putin as a coldly calculating KGB operative are off the mark; while those that see him as a classic unrepentant bully are spot on. If he is both, so much the worse for the Ukraine and others but bullies too often miscalculate.


Standard Russian practice in the past, they did it for years encroaching UK airspace. Dont know if this is a one off or routine and is just being reported to up the ante.


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## Torch (Apr 15, 2014)

They've been buzzing and ramming for decades now,its a bit of a dangerous game but hopefully cool heads prevale.


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## oldcrowcv63 (Apr 15, 2014)

pbehn said:


> Standard Russian practice in the past, they did it for years encroaching UK airspace. Dont know if this is a one off or routine and is just being reported to up the ante.





Torch said:


> They've been buzzing and ramming for decades now,its a bit of a dangerous game but hopefully cool heads prevale.



You guys are absolutely right.. I'd forgotten having experienced that as well in the good old days of the cold war… Here I thought the cold war was over… I guess it's just in the nature of things Russian.


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## pbehn (Apr 15, 2014)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> You guys are absolutely right.. I'd forgotten having experienced that as well in the good old days of the cold war… Here I thought the cold war was over… I guess it's just in the nature of things Russian.



Not just Russian a month ago I I watched a programe about submarines in the cold war, a British hunter killer sub went right into the Russian fleet and photographed the propeller of the newly commissioned Kiev class carrier, they also got the sound print which was the real mission. Its all cat and mouse.


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## bobbysocks (Apr 15, 2014)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> Here I thought the cold war was over.



think we are seeing the New and Improved Cold War....part II. its going to be more of an economic and cyber war than the traditional iron curtian. russia is making moves to build a community of trading partners ( the new russian bloc ). they recently bought the state owned ( and the only producer ) natural gas company of Kyrgyzstan and has a bid to by all or most of the airports. it has increased pressure on the country to join its trade organization. talk about selling your enemy the rope which he will linch you with... the us will pull out of there completely by the summers end so the soviets ( yes i will call them that ) who maintain a military presence there isnt leaving. with putin trying to insulate himself from the rest of the worlds economy is he trying to set up his version of the EU?


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 15, 2014)

"....Here I thought the cold war was over…"

History is never over ..... we were all taught that the war with Islam was over .... well we know better don't we.

MM


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## pbehn (Apr 15, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> "....Here I thought the cold war was over…"
> 
> History is never over ..... we were all taught that the war with Islam was over .... well we know better don't we.
> 
> MM



The English are still waiting to avenge Hastings in 1066.

The optimism of the fall of the Belin wall has given way to the sad Realisation that a Group like connuist Russias leaders dont go away just Morph into a new threat.


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## parsifal (Apr 16, 2014)

I recall my expereiences with this sort of thing. In 1980 the USSR invaded Afghanistan and the world thought Pakistan was next on the menu. My ship HMAS Melbourne, along with other ships deployed to the ocean area south of Pakistan where we came in for some intensive treatement at the hands of the Soviets, both at sea and in the air. It was intense, so inmy book, this is not a new phenomenon.

The West used to do it to the Soviets as well. They used to hate being tagged outside Vladivostck and having their cavitation signatures recorded by our oberon subs. 

Its all part of the game fellas. By both sides.


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 17, 2014)

6 RCAF F-18s going to the Eastern Front -- likely Poland.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 17, 2014)

I wonder when the A-10's will be shipped there.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 17, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> 6 RCAF F-18s going to the Eastern Front -- *likely Poland*.


There's also talk about NATO supplements in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as well. It appears that Germany will provide these aircraft.


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 17, 2014)

"....I wonder when the A-10's will be shipped there...."

Ironic _that _.... designed for defense of The Gap against Warsaw Pact forces on the move .... going home to cold war Europe

"... It appears that Germany will provide these aircraft."

Germany took easy ground as a NATO assignment, IMCO, , in Af'stan ... on _this one_ Germany needs to step up big ... and take up positions in Western Ukraine .... the Germans will be _welcomed_ in Western Ukraine.  

Germany needs to speak to Vlad as a large Russian-energy _*customer*_ who is concerned about their supply chain integrity.


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## Torch (Apr 21, 2014)

More response. US ground troops going to Poland, defense minister says | Army Land Forces News at DefenceTalk


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## fastmongrel (Apr 21, 2014)

michaelmaltby said:


> Germany needs to speak to Vlad as a large Russian-energy _*customer*_ who is concerned about their supply chain integrity.



There is a large German Gas contract coming up for renewal soon and Russias rivals in the LNG business are lining up to get into the German market with Algeria and Qatar in the lead. Vlad needs cash pumped into the economy at a steady rate to keep Russia running, no gas money and all those nice Mercedes might have to go back to the dealers.

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## parsifal (Apr 22, 2014)

I realized today, this is not the first time in recent history that the west has clashed with Russia over the Crimea

To quote someone famous.....a little ditty by a man called Tennyson

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 22, 2014)

"....I realized today, this is not the first time in recent history that the west has clashed with Russia over the Crimea.."

Harry Flashman comes to mind .... 


https://www.google.ca/search?q=Harr...ome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=119&ie=UTF-8


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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2014)

A couple news features I read (don't have the links handy on this ipad) showed evidence that a number of the "seperatists" are Russian Special forces. Some were even identified as participating in the conflict with Georgia, too.

Another news piece reported that U.S. Army will start positioning units in Eastern Europe on a rotational basis, assisting each of those countries with training and establishing a visible presence in the region.


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## parsifal (Apr 22, 2014)

that might be bad. Rightly or wrongly, the Russian leadership still view Eastern Europe as their sphere of influence. Perhaps not the countries outside the former USSR, but certainly those countries that were formerly under their control. If the US start to project their forces and influence into the region any further than they are, they are playing a very dangerous game. this is Cuban missile crisis allover again, but in reverse.

The Russians are motivated and serious about this issue, and they wont brook any ducks and drakes games from the Americans, I am sure. 
I disagree with how Putin is going about this, but not what his point actually is. 

If the Yanks are going to do this, they had better be prepared for a full scale conflict with the Russians. Maybe no WW3, but still on a scale like Iraq. It WILL be ugly.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2014)

Well, Putin would see any country, especially a western nation, as provocation.

Actually, he would even consider resistance by Ukranian forces as provocation.

He is alot like Uncle Joe in the respect that he will have is way, or else.

He may end up getting alot more than he bargained for...


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 23, 2014)

Meanwhile ... in _other_ news:

Russians Inspect Montana Nuclear Launch Facilities - ABC News

Russia didn't honor the Budapest Accord on Ukrainian nukes ... why would the US honor this .... under the circumstances


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## Torch (Apr 28, 2014)

The answer would get political so i'm not going there but it would be along the lines of cerrtain men lifting their skirts.


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## Glider (Apr 28, 2014)

I can see this ending up with an economic war fought behind the scenes. Already the bond markets are closed to the Russian Banks and they totally failed to sell anything in the last bond auction at any price. Even Greece were able to sell some bonds
This may seem small but without this Russia cannot pay their debts. Granted they could simply stop paying but the problem then is that no one will ever lend to them again. They could nationalise foreign investments but then you have the same problem, no one will invest there for decades.

Also given that the USA will soon be and may already be self sufficient in oil they could drive the price of oil down to a level where Russia will collapse as they did when the wall came down.

Obama may be getting some stick for his perceived lack of response but the economic action is having a significant impact. Given that no one will go to war to support a non NATO country there is little more that he can do. Its a version of the talk quietly and carry a big stick but these days the stick is economic measures not numbers of aircraft and tanks


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## pbehn (Apr 28, 2014)

Glider said:


> I can see this ending up with an economic war fought behind the scenes. Already the bond markets are closed to the Russian Banks and they totally failed to sell anything in the last bond auction at any price. Even Greece were able to sell some bonds
> This may seem small but without this Russia cannot pay their debts. Granted they could simply stop paying but the problem then is that no one will ever lend to them again. They could nationalise foreign investments but then you have the same problem, no one will invest there for decades.
> 
> Also given that the USA will soon be and may already be self sufficient in oil they could drive the price of oil down to a level where Russia will collapse as they did when the wall came down.
> ...



Well said but if the Russian people start to suffer who will Vlad blame? I think it is progressing beyond facts being important, it is how things seem. look how well Mugabe has done dragging his country into the mire while all the time blaming ex colonial forces.


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## The Basket (Apr 28, 2014)

parsifal said:


> that might be bad. Rightly or wrongly, the Russian leadership still view Eastern Europe as their sphere of influence. Perhaps not the countries outside the former USSR, but certainly those countries that were formerly under their control. If the US start to project their forces and influence into the region any further than they are, they are playing a very dangerous game. this is Cuban missile crisis allover again, but in reverse.
> 
> The Russians are motivated and serious about this issue, and they wont brook any ducks and drakes games from the Americans, I am sure.
> I disagree with how Putin is going about this, but not what his point actually is.
> ...



If Russia wants war then what? If Putin invades Ukraine then what? The Russian economy has gone into reverse already. Sanctions maybe wishy washy but no western country is going to invest in Russia now. some former WarPac and USSR countries are now in NATO. So they have to be defended at all cosr otherwise it aint worth spit.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 28, 2014)

That's the sticky part of the game Putin is playing.

He is banking on appeasement to get his way. He knows that the U.S. is war weary and the people probably won't support a war, no matter how limited, after all these years of being involved in the middle-east.

He also knows that few of the western European countries have the stomach for an all out war. Only the countries that got out from under Soviet rule will actively resist his encroachment.

The "seperatist" actions going on in the eastern Ukraine are remarkably similiar to the Gleiwitz incident, and allows Putin to justify his encroachment on the Ukraine.


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## fastmongrel (Apr 29, 2014)

I am beginning to wonder what Putins end game is. Exactly what does he gain from getting the Ukraine back, as far as I know theres nothing in Ukraine thats of any strategic or material value. Is he pulling the old dictators trick of going to war to mask a problem at home.


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## Glider (Apr 29, 2014)

The Ukraine was known as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union plus the east does have a lot of heavy engineering and mining.


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## The Basket (Apr 29, 2014)

Putins end game is a mighty Russia surrounded by subjugated states.
He has to be stopped or he will follow through.
Ukraine is not going to join NATO or the EU. Mr Putin will see to that.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2014)

And now, much to my surprise, I read that there is trouble in eastern Latvia. It seems that "seperatists" (wearing green, unmarked uniforms) are at it there now, too.


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## parsifal (Apr 30, 2014)

The Basket said:


> If Russia wants war then what? If Putin invades Ukraine then what? The Russian economy has gone into reverse already. Sanctions maybe wishy washy but no western country is going to invest in Russia now. some former WarPac and USSR countries are now in NATO. So they have to be defended at all cosr otherwise it aint worth spit.




I dont think they want war, but I also think the russians view any part of the former SU as their essential interests, for which they are not prepared to compromise. They will fight if forced to do so.

As far as economic sanctions....i doubt it. The so-called EU sanctions dont target organizatrions, they target individuals....15 people to be exact. that is unlikely to have any long term effect on the Russian economy. US sanctions are far more wide ranging and effective, but at the end of the day, the Europeans want their energy, and the Russians have it. Nothing, least of all a recalcitrant and irresponsible Ukraine is going to get in the way of those basic home truths.

i dont like this any more than the next man. But the time for ideological responses to a very pragmatic reality are over. We in the West need to realistically appraise and acknowledge as valid the Russian interests as well as our own, and make adjustments to our responses to them. The Ukrainians are not our problem, despite all this gibberish about being in NATO. They dont have the same background or values as us. Basically they are on their own, and need to adjust their responses accordingly. tough love, but true. we should stop running around making out we are the worlds moral conscience, and look after our own interests for a change. In the same way as Cuba required the Russians to acjknowledge US vital intersts, we have to do the same in the ukraine.

I dont condone what is happening, but neither do i see it as any of our business to start fighting other peoples fights for them.


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## Torch (May 5, 2014)

Well how about that,the Russians are messing with Odessa now,I mentioned that back on page 2. They have control of the surrounding seas with Crimea and with Odessa if it falls a major gas hub,,,not good.


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## parsifal (May 5, 2014)

I agree. Whilst i acknowldge the legitamacy of some of the Russian claims, they are acting really badly and aggressively. We need to make a decision though as to whether making a stand in the ukraine is worth it. Personally I think we draw a line at the 1945 border. Anything on the old Soviet side is theirs, Anything outside is off limits. Thats a more plausible and defensible position to take.


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## GrauGeist (May 5, 2014)

parsifal said:


> Personally I think we draw a line at the 1945 border. Anything on the old Soviet side is theirs, Anything outside is off limits. Thats a more plausible and defensible position to take.


I don't think that would be a good idea, either.

Russia should leave it's old cold-war conquests alone. Putin laments over the loss of the Soviet Union and has said, on many occasions, that it should be rebuilt.

Saying that the Russia can swell back to it's post-war borders is exactly what he wants. And so once he has all his "leibensraum", what stops him there? Why not push a little harder and see what happens? Russia, historically, has always had their eye on Afghanistan and Finland, too. So after those two countries get gobbled up and added to the reborn Warsaw pact collection, we start shaking our finger and scold him and move the "do not cross this line" even further back. 

Russia has disputed territory with Japan, perhaps appease Putin and hand that over...then there's Alaska. So hand that over and appease him all for the sake of "Peace in our time".

How far back do we move that line?

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## The Basket (May 6, 2014)

Putin lamemts the loss of the USSR like a long lost love.
He doesnt see Russia moving forward as a modern nation but as a timewarp relic.
Maybe he saw only the good side of Soviet Union.
Putin cannot be allowed to get away with it. Yes the west need Russia but a friendly Russia. 
If Putin wants the cold war again then we have no choice other than to treat him as an enemy.
To give in means his appetite for destruction grows with the conquest.


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## GrauGeist (May 6, 2014)

Also, the west coast of the U.S., especially California, has seen an escalation of Russian bomber flights. Especially that noisey old cold war nuisance, the Tupolev. There also has been overflights of Guam, in the Pacific.

These have been the highest since 1990.

Two things cross my mind here: 
One, Putin is putting on a multi-purpose show that's intended to be a demonstration of "Russian might" while doing recon at the same time. (no big deal, they use to do it before, no surprise here)

Or, he's using these flights as a distraction meant to draw attention away from something else.

Putin might be a power hungry relic from the Soviet era, but he was former KGB and is well versed in subversion/shadow war. My bet is on the second option mentioned above...


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## fastmongrel (May 6, 2014)

My partner is Latvian are people seriously saying that the West should throw her country and her family away to appease Putin. I cant believe it is being said by idiots sitting comfortably in there nice safe far away country that they will happily throw democratic stable countries which are dragging themselves up to 1st world status to the arms of a despotic ****nut who believes in a glorious fantasy Soviet past. How can anyone be so dismissive of peoples lives do you idiots want the blood of journalists, feminists, human rights campaigners, lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites, jews, hippies, the mentally ill, union members and anyone that that dead eyed bastard doesnt like on your hands.

You can feed a Lion but what happens when the food has run out and the Lion is still hungry.


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## Njaco (May 6, 2014)

fastmongrel, cool it. There is no need to bash people. The Mods have let this thread roll along, but if it gets nasty it will be closed and vacations given out.

Last warning.

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## Torch (May 6, 2014)

Fastmongrel I have relatives in Poland who are not happy with whats going and who have been thru the communist experience that left a bad taste in their mouths. I don't think anybody wants to throw morsels to the hungry Bear.A real war will turn out nasty for all sides and unfortunately those border countries will probably suffer the most, To me the sanctions being handed out are not enough but it's very obvious that Europe likes their flow of gas.I don't think anybody saw this happening,everybody was focused on radical terrorism and Al Qaeda. If this was the case the "allies" intelligence really failed to fore see this. Fast Mongrel what would you suggest to do?


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## GrauGeist (May 6, 2014)

I also have a vested interest in this situation, for several reasons:
Because I don't want to see Europe ravaged by another war

I have several friends (forum included) that live in and about Europe

And most importantly, my Sweetheart is Bulgarian and her family lives on the Black Sea coast (city of Burgas) and surrounding areas. They lived through communist times, she even had to serve in the compulsory "guard" that was required of pre-college kids (this is also why I don't give her much trouble, she is VERY proficient in shouldered weapons  ) and none of them have anything good to say about living under the Soviet thumb.

If NATO, UN, Mad Mothers or anyone else had enough huevos, they would descend into the Ukraine en-masse and form a huge buffer between Russia and Ukraine proper. Russia may have a considerable military (on paper) but if every nation sent a sizable force (not just a small squad of advisors or whatever), then Russia would be staring down a serious presence. Think of it as the "Water Buffalo" effect, when the entire herd moves shoulder to shoulder to ward off a pride of Lions. It works. 

Either that or have China do the same thing with Russia over their frontier, demanding that Russia hand over a large swath of frontier that has ethnic Chinese speaking populations. Bet Putin wouldn't like that very much, would he?

In either case, Putin wouldn't be bullying an under-funded military or angry civilians throwing rocks, they would be looking at well equipped, heavily armed opponents that could do serious damage to his military, his goals and his economy. And perhaps bring about an end to his aspirations of being Stalin reborn.


Also, it is most appreciated that the mods have let this thread flow along, as it is a real-world concern and I see we've all had a great discussion without it descending into a political cesspool.

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## bobbysocks (May 6, 2014)

fastmongrel said:


> I am beginning to wonder what Putins end game is. Exactly what does he gain from getting the Ukraine back, as far as I know theres nothing in Ukraine thats of any strategic or material value. Is he pulling the old dictators trick of going to war to mask a problem at home.



he gains a valuable warm water port.....a buffer zone......and a partner in his economic community....and a foothold further into europe. also iirc a lot of the gas lines and stations are in that area...so they are more secure from his perspective. lastly he dipped his toe ( head first actually ) to see what the world opinion and reaction will be. it is an old commie tactic...probe and if there is too much resistance retreat, regroup, and retry later or in another area. he has everything to win and not much to lose IF he plays this smart....either the world will give in to his whims...he will diplomatically negotiate a settlement that favors him, or he will negotiate a retreat and let his kremlin spin doctors use the propaganda to make him like a good guy...a reasonable man who is given more to talk than to agressive actions ( in otherwords total BS ). IF he isnt smart or lets his ego get the best of him...or totally screws up the analysis of the situation...Russia will suffer and he will probably be ousted sooner or later...but i dont think he is that dumb.

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## Glider (May 6, 2014)

IN the short to medium term I think Putin is and will lose. Countries and companies will be less likely to invest in Russia and finally (I do hope) the European countries will take security of power seriously and Russia will lose a) markets and b) its only weapon, the threat of power cuts.


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## The Basket (May 6, 2014)

If Putin is an opportunistic operator then he may walk away with his spoils.

If Putin is an ideologue who is following his Soviet star...its trouble.

Powerful men with dangerous dreams. Bad medicine.


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## parsifal (May 6, 2014)

fastmongrel said:


> My partner is Latvian are people seriously saying that the West should throw her country and her family away to appease Putin. I cant believe it is being said by idiots sitting comfortably in there nice safe far away country that they will happily throw democratic stable countries which are dragging themselves up to 1st world status to the arms of a despotic ****nut who believes in a glorious fantasy Soviet past. How can anyone be so dismissive of peoples lives do you idiots want the blood of journalists, feminists, human rights campaigners, lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transvestites, jews, hippies, the mentally ill, union members and anyone that that dead eyed bastard doesnt like on your hands.
> 
> You can feed a Lion but what happens when the food has run out and the Lion is still hungry.



I apologise if my comments caused you offense. Didnt mean for them to have that effect. latvia has had its share of rapings, lootings and pillagings since the dark ages, from both east and west. when one nation loses we all lose I guess, but it is hard from an Australian perspective to see the relevance or importance of us shelving out yet more Australian blood or treasure to fight someone elses fight that far away. It will make no difference to us, terms of trade wise, whether Putin, or some other demagogue is in charge of Latvia, and in the end, whatever we do, wont make a difference to how the minorities are treated. . 

However, having said all that, this whole thing stinks of Munich allover again. And lets not forget Ben Franklins words...."If we give a little liberty, to gain a little security, we will lose them both". In the global community of today, philosophically you can apply that to cross border situations like this.


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## bobbysocks (May 7, 2014)

parsifal said:


> And lets not forget Ben Franklins words...."If we give a little liberty, to gain a little security, we will lose them both".



the exact opposite seems to the the axiom of modern day politics...we have to give up a little to be more secure.

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## GrauGeist (May 7, 2014)

The sad thing is, things are no better today, then in the days of the Roman Empire.

You would think that 2,000 years later, here in the 21st century, people would have become more civilized, more progressive and less destructive to one another.


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## Torch (May 7, 2014)

As long as someone has something that somebody else wants it isn't going to happen,whether it's women,booze,power etc etc there will always be issues.


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## GrauGeist (May 7, 2014)

A sad, but true, assessment of the human race...


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## bobbysocks (May 7, 2014)

GrauGeist said:


> The sad thing is, things are no better today, then in the days of the Roman Empire.
> 
> You would think that 2,000 years later, here in the 21st century, people would have become more civilized, more progressive and less destructive to one another.



that seems to be another thing politicians ( and people ) cant grasp...".we are much smarter and wiser today and ought to be able to resolve our differences in a more civilized and peaceful manner". horse hockey! we have new gadgets...higher degrees of knowledge...medical knowhow...blah, blah, blah....for for all that he is, man is the exactly the same creature he was when cain bopped able on the head with a rock. you can dress mankind up but dont expect him to be more than what he is. man, i am getting cynical in my old age.


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## parsifal (May 7, 2014)

I listended to an interview on PBS radio last night from a university professor and author (I forget his name) that specialises in Eastern European politics. The gist of what i heard was that The Russians are not interested in occupying the ukraine, with one or two exceptions (like Crimea). He says that what they are looking for is strong Ukraine, but one that is compliant to Russian interests......a client state. The Russians are really upset at the westernization of the Ukraine, and the tipping oint is their application to join NATO.

I noticed on the news service today that Putin says he is pulling back forces from the frontier, and has told the "separatists" not to undertake their referndum on secession. These events of the last 24 hours suggest the lecturer guy might have something. 

Sure is a funny way of being friends though....


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## Torch (May 7, 2014)

Sources say what Putin is saying is fluff,nobodies moving away from the Ukraine border

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## vikingBerserker (May 7, 2014)

It gets more and more interesting.


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## javlin (May 8, 2014)

bobbysocks said:


> that seems to be another thing politicians ( and people ) cant grasp...".we are much smarter and wiser today and ought to be able to resolve our differences in a more civilized and peaceful manner". horse hockey! we have new gadgets...higher degrees of knowledge...medical knowhow...blah, blah, blah....for for all that he is, man is the exactly the same creature he was when cain bopped able on the head with a rock. you can dress mankind up but dont expect him to be more than what he is. man, i am getting cynical in my old age.



And you literally do a lights out no power no gadgets we are worse off today than 150yrs ago.I would speculate that 1/2 of civilization dies in the first year!with me included most likely in that figure.


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## Torch (May 8, 2014)

God forbid an EMP goes off! How the heck will we be able to communicate without texting???


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## parsifal (May 8, 2014)

Torch said:


> Sources say what Putin is saying is fluff,nobodies moving away from the Ukraine border



yep, overnight the "separatists" say they will go ahead with their pol regardless. NATO reports say there is no evidence as yet of anyy significant Russian pull backs.


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## GrauGeist (May 8, 2014)

The thing that I find disturbing, is that a fair share of Russian comments I have seen regarding this situation is that the U.S. is either behind this, or that the U.S. have provoked Russia into making these moves by massing our troops along Russia's border and much more along those lines.

Sure, there's U.S. troops nearby...a few hundred up near Poland and neighboring countries and they came after the fact. 

But it's Russians that are that are bolstering the "seperatists", not the CIA and if they consider a few hundred U.S. troops a national threat, well...

It's really frustrating to see people get sucked into wild notions and twisted propaganda.


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## vikingBerserker (May 8, 2014)

Some people never let logic or facts get in their way.


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## The Basket (May 9, 2014)

vikingBerserker said:


> Some people never let logic or facts get in their way.



Hand it to Putin.
Big military parade and visits Crimea.
Ha. Peace. No
The West can think again.


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## javlin (May 10, 2014)

The Basket said:


> Hand it to Putin.
> Big military parade and visits Crimea.
> Ha. Peace. No
> The West can think again.



Yep saw that a big slap in the face to the EU and US but nothing is going to happen from our end.


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## parsifal (May 10, 2014)

I just dont get it. It makes no sense, from a Russian perspective to de-stabilise the ukraine that it becomes a failed state. I believe the professor when he says the Russians dont want to occupy Ukraine Hungary or Czech style> it makes sense that they want a client state, friendly to them and rejecting western influence. But the way this is panning out, the russians arent doing that. They seem to be pressing this to the bitter end, upending Ukrainian stability to the point that the country descends into civil war. I just dont really see how they (the Russians) think they stand to gain from this. 

The only alternative that seems plausible is that the Ukrainians separatists are in fact more independant tan we give them credit for. Ethnic Russians can be pig headed sometimes, even to the point of being irrational about their own welfare....cutting off their nose etc

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## Torch (May 10, 2014)

Putin won't back down,if he does he will look weak right now,he'll keep pushing until "he" comes up with the resolution,he will then have gained what ever and will look great in the Russian peoples eyes.


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## michaelmaltby (May 10, 2014)

".... The only alternative that seems plausible is that the Ukrainians separatists are in fact _more independant tan we give them credit for_. Ethnic Russians can be pig headed sometimes, even_ to the point of being irrational_ about their own welfare....cutting off their nose etc.

Slavic soul, Parsifal, slavic _soul_.

He (Putin) wants western Ukraine's aerospace capabilities ... he doesn't want the EU to get it.

But watch the money ..... capital is flooding out of the Russian market as fast as it's little green sneakers will take it .....

Putin got Crimea. He has made gains in the east but are they really Putin's gains ...? He will fail to get the remainder ... the country will retain its access to the Black Sea. IMHO.

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## bobbysocks (May 12, 2014)

javlin said:


> And you literally do a lights out no power no gadgets we are worse off today than 150yrs ago.I would speculate that 1/2 of civilization dies in the first year!with me included most likely in that figure.



i whole heartedly agree. we have "evolved" and became so "civilized" and "modernized" that a large majority of the population would perish without the conveniences. just making a fire to some would be an impossible task. an old college professor of mine said the smarter we make the machines the dumber we get....tis true...tis true.


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## vikingBerserker (May 12, 2014)

I think all he is going to end up doing is driving the Ukaine more towards Europe and NATO.


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## The Basket (May 12, 2014)

I would now say Ukraine is a failed state. It cannot protect its own.
Putin doesnt have to invade. Kiev will be begging for help.
And only the Kremlin can. The referendum in the eastern provinces are beyond the pale.
But Kiev has two options. Russian rule or Russian occupation.
Choose wisely.


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