# WW3?



## mcgbilly (Oct 2, 2009)

Hi, newby here, Just thought I'd join in and make an abstract comment. Here is my take on it: WW3? Yes, gonna happen. In my lifetime: Hope not! When it comes to nations a Armys, Navy's, Air force's, Police, FBI, etc, it all boils down to this question: Do you have the infrastructure (supply, maintance, food, water, amuniton, etc) to take care of your forces? China has a MASSIVE military. (Weak Navy, mediocre Air Force) Can they invade a foreign country? Absolutely! 2 or 3 or 4? Absolutely! But can they sustain thier misson: Domination of the continent, possily more? I think not. A small country with a small miltary force (50-100,00) that is well INTFRASTUCTED, could repel them. Just a note on who I am: Former US Marine (E8), MOS: 0331: 0341, 21 years. Now part of the infrastructure in S. Koea and proud of it!


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## Colin1 (Oct 2, 2009)

mcgbilly said:


> Hi, newby here, Just thought I'd join in and make an abstract comment. Here is my take on it: WW3? Yes, gonna happen. In my lifetime: Hope not! When it comes to nations a Armys, Navy's, Air force's, Police, FBI, etc, it all boils down to this question: Do you have the infrastructure (supply, maintance, food, water, amuniton, etc) to take care of your forces? China has a MASSIVE military. (Weak Navy, mediocre Air Force) Can they invade a foreign country? Absolutely! 2 or 3 or 4? Absolutely! But can they sustain thier misson: Domination of the continent, possily more? I think not. A small country with a small miltary force (50-100,00) that is well INTFRASTUCTED, could repel them. Just a note on who I am: Former US Marine (E8), MOS: 0331: 0341, 21 years. Now part of the infrastructure in S. Koea and proud of it!


You didn't need to post this twice
What criteria do you think provide the 'inexorable convergence' to world war? I realise there's alot of tension in alot of regions of the world, but which of them is going to spark the next global conflict and why?

'Yes, gonna happen' is a bit of an internet sandwich board proclaiming the end is nigh - why though?

Anyone can invade a foreign country. China certainly can, the question is, who would she tie up with or does she just intend to break out and take on everybody? The Russians would give her a stiff fight, that would buy NATO alot of time. With NATO on board, Tibet might see an opportunity to become a real domestic pain in the ass.

With ground forces tied up by Russia and NATO, Tibet causing all manner of sh*t back home, massively long logistics lines, a beleaguered airforce having trouble defending itself let alone the ground forces they are supposed to be protecting, I'd have to question China's resolve; they've never invaded anybody before, have no experience of global warfare where THEY are holding one set of reins and are facing seasoned NATO troops with a very unambiguous mission and public support 100% on their side. Therein lies another potential banana skin for the Chinese, public dissent back home for an 'unjust' war and an inherent excuse for large-scale anti-government agitation to overthrow the incumbent dictatorship.


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## Butters (Oct 2, 2009)

Why would the Chinese bother to engage in the risky game of military adventurism? Say what you want about them, but they aren't dummies. Or so impatient as to take such rash actions.

Naw, if they want to take over another country, all they have to do is wait a little while longer. Then they can just move in and buy it. A bargain compared to what it costs to take and hold an uncooperative nation by military means. Just ask the US... ;o)

JL


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## Amsel (Oct 3, 2009)

You are looking at the wrong nation. WW3 will be European and Middle Eastern, with a bit of Russia mixed in.

On another note the US war bill for the whole Iraq war doesn't even equal up to our spending for welfare for one year. But then again we are not trying to hold an uncooperative country. Europe has much more experience in that field.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 4, 2009)

Amsel said:


> You are looking at the wrong nation. WW3 will be European and Middle Eastern, with a bit of Russia mixed in.



Where do you expect in Europe for it to break out? I don't see anything happening in Europe anytime in the near future, except for possibly some regional conflicts down in the Balkans.


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## Amsel (Oct 4, 2009)

I really don't expect WW3 at all in the near future. But I don't think it will be in the Pacific. Probably the ME but will involve Europe. 

But with the current amount of nuclear weapons in the world, there might not be another world war for a very long time. Nukes make world wars more unlikely.


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## chip haehnel (Oct 5, 2009)

Yer all off base. The trigger will be Bolivian aspirations for Peruvian resources. Ignore CA and SA at your peril capitalist pigs.ch


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## Maximowitz (Oct 5, 2009)

chip haehnel said:


> Yer all off base. The trigger will be Bolivian aspirations for Peruvian resources. Ignore CA and SA at your peril capitalist pigs.ch



They're after the cocaine?

I think in the near future a vast military defence computer system will become sentient, triggering a war between man and machine. A leader of the human resistance will become the target of a cyborg sent back in time to kill his mother before he can be born..

Wow. That would make a _great_ film script.


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## chip haehnel (Oct 5, 2009)

lol..............huh? pick some clothes out of the closet and please take my motorcycle. California? Head towards the setting sun and stop when the water tastes salty.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 5, 2009)

What are you talking about?


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## Ferdinand Foch (Oct 5, 2009)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What are you talking about?



Wait, Adler. You've never seen the Terminator?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 5, 2009)

Of course I have seen Terminator but this is just not ringing a bell...


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## DBII (Oct 5, 2009)

DBII


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## Ferdinand Foch (Oct 5, 2009)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Of course I have seen Terminator but this is just not ringing a bell...



Oh right.


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## Vassili Zaitzev (Oct 6, 2009)

I highly doubt that's there going to be a Third World War, at least not in my lifetime. I can't think of any major power wanting to trigger a nuclear war. And if China does try a convential war, they have the numbers, but not the logistics to sustain themselves.


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## Burmese Bandit (Oct 7, 2009)

Let me put in my 2 cents.

I do not think there will be a third world 'war' but I believe that the FIRST WORLD CONFLICT may have already begun. 

The detailed background is far too long to give her. I will simply say that those who have read Professor Philip Chase Bobbit's two books, 'The Shield of Achilles' and 'Terror and Consent' will know what I am talking about. 

The premise is simple. As the world grows more globalized and evolves into different forms of the 'market state' conflicts that previously happened BETWEEN nations now will happen WITHIN nations. 

Thus in the future I do not see nations squaring off against nations. I do, however, see TRANSNATIONAL IDEOLOGICAL GROUPS fighting global wars WITHIN nations. 

Think about that. forum members. Think long and deep, for I strongly suspect you will see this in your lifetimes.


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## Colin1 (Oct 7, 2009)

Burmese Bandit said:


> The premise is simple. As the world grows more globalized and evolves into different forms of the 'market state' conflicts that previously happened BETWEEN nations now will happen WITHIN nations.
> 
> Thus in the future I do not see nations squaring off against nations. I do, however, see TRANSNATIONAL IDEOLOGICAL GROUPS fighting global wars WITHIN nations.
> 
> Think about that. forum members. Think long and deep, for I strongly suspect you will see this in your lifetimes.


It might be
but I'm still not sure what you mean. The only intra-national conflict that I can think of related to market state would be some radical polarisation of rich vs poor; are you suggesting some modern-day October Revolution?

That second sentence, not sure what's going on there. I don't wish to sound demeaning, but what do you mean?

You haven't convinced me that the biggest threat to world security/stability ISN'T fundamentalist terrorism and esp fundamentalist terrorism where it borders a not-as-stable-as-we'd-like nuclear power. For good measure, throw in a couple of wannabee mad-dogs who are seeking nuclear power.


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## PJay (Oct 7, 2009)

Hopefully WW3 will be a damn sight smaller than WW1 and WW2. And not fought in Europe.


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## Colin1 (Oct 7, 2009)

PJay said:


> Hopefully WW3 will be a damn sight smaller than WW1 and WW2. And not fought in Europe.


Do they do small world wars? 
If it's not fought in Europe, technically, is that still a world war? It's difficult to envisage Europe ducking any world war under current circumstances. Unfortunately, it's the European flavour of 'Western infidel' that is geographically attached to potential troublemakers so it's a small step to assume that that's probably what they're going to strike at.
They will likely attempt to strike at the US flavour with further inland terrorist attacks and may conceivably succeed but it would be devilishly difficult post-9/11. Any attempt at territorial incursion would be laughably stupid.
Using the term 'Western infidel' makes it seem easy to see where I'm pointing the finger, to be honest, it's difficult to put a face or a shape or a form to any potential aggressor on a world scale, I've really got no idea who it could be but I have a strong feeling fundamentalist terrorism would play a leading role.


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## Flyboy2 (Oct 7, 2009)

You know its interesting but I remember reading something were a history professor stated that the Cold War was in fact World War III because for the most part the whole world was effected by it and/or participated in it. He used the fact that World War I wasn't called a world war until after the fact to state that in the future we could see the Cold War being known as World War III. I thought it was an interesting point and definately made alot of sense. I lost him however when he stated that the "War on Terror" is World War IV because most of the world is in some way involved in it. Just some interesting theories.

Of course, Einstein did say "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones"


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## javlin (Oct 10, 2009)

Thus in the future I do not see nations squaring off against nations. I do, however, see TRANSNATIONAL IDEOLOGICAL GROUPS fighting global wars WITHIN nations. 


I could see that morso than a global conflict myself.A confliction of ideals of a direction of government already prevails in this country and I am sure in others as well?


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## krieghund (Dec 6, 2009)

I'm afraid that Europe will be drawn into a conflict and it will center around the mid-east

Europe is looking pretty Anti-muslim now.....Swiss and no more Minerets....France now veils and so on ( I do agree)

Remember Mohammad Imadinnerjacket has missiles that can reach Europe...and the fine US president just canceled all those missile defense plans for Europe

Israel is not worried to much as they have the Arrow and improved Arrow........oh yes and nukes


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## parsifal (Dec 6, 2009)

what about the possibility of a nuclear device stolen by a terrorist cell hiding in China, or India, and detonating it in say Washington. 

How do you see the US reacting to that......

We live in a dangerous and unstable world. It is VERY dangerous to assume that all is calm and quiet. The maelstrom could happen any time, any place. The best we can do us to be firm, but fair, and to maintain our vigilance


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

To be honest I am more worried about the world climate and what will happen once the magnetic poles shift.


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

Surely you are kidding. Or perhaps high?


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

None of the above Matt. The poles are gonna shift, they've done so since the birth of this planet, it's just a matter of time until next time it happens and at this point it's long overdue. And when the poles do shift, the earths magnetic field will weaken, leaving us more exposed to the sun's rays. And this is particularly bad in the case of a geomagnetic storm, which often occurs everytime the sun's poles shift, which is every 22 years, as apposed to the average of 780,000 years for the earth.

Last time we experienced a geomagnetic storm was in 1989, and it had some pretty dramatic effects:
_On March 13, 1989 a severe geomagnetic storm caused the collapse of the Hydro-Québec power grid in a matter of seconds as equipment protection relays tripped in a cascading sequence of events. Six million people were left without power for nine hours, with significant economic loss. The storm even caused auroras as far south as Texas. The geomagnetic storm causing this event was itself the result of a coronal mass ejection, ejected from the Sun on March 9, 1989

In August 1989, another storm affected microchips, leading to a halt of all trading on Toronto's stock market._

With the earth's magnetic field weakened the effects will be much worse. How bad I have no idea, but I hope it wont be too bad. We're pretty darn reliant on electronics these days and seeing that a geomagnetic storm hitting the earth with a weakened protective magnetic field could fry each and everyone of our priced electronic gadgets then it would almost be like being sent back to the stone age.


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

Just so we are clear. You think that this threat is more urgent than regional crisis and advocate redirecting our current $660Billion 2010 military budget where?


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## RabidAlien (Dec 14, 2009)

...apparently it needs to be re-directed into Canada, since that is the only country affected by these geomagnetic storms. Something to do with all the moose, I take it.


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Matt308 said:


> Just so we are clear. You think that this threat is more urgent than regional crisis and advocate redirecting our current $660Billion 2010 military budget where?



Why would you touch the military budget, what good would that do? Esp. seeing as there really might be no way to fully protect our electronics against these magnetic storms.

As for regional crisis, well to be honest I don't see WW3 breaking out anytime soon. We were close in the 60's, but now terrorism is a much greater threat.

But yeah, this thing about the poles actually worries me abit.


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

$2/3Trillion USD comin' Canada's way. Perhaps Jesse Ventura and his brain trust can deliver it.


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

Soren said:


> Why would you touch the military budget, what good would that do? Esp. seeing as there really might be no way to fully protect our electronics against these magnetic storms.
> 
> As for regional crisis, well to be honest I don't see WW3 breaking out anytime soon. We were close in the 60's, but now terrorism is a much greater threat.



Our posts clashed.

I agree with your response.


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

RabidAlien said:


> ...apparently it needs to be re-directed into Canada, since that is the only country affected by these geomagnetic storms. Something to do with all the moose, I take it.



Canada just happened to be directly in the path of the shockwave, it could hit anywhere.

_From August 28 until September 2, 1859, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun, the largest flare occurring on the September 1. A massive CME headed directly at Earth due to the solar flare and made it within eighteen hours — a trip that normally takes three to four days. On September 1 – 2, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. The horizontal intensity of geomagnetic field was reduced by 1600 nT as recorded by the Colaba observatory near Bombay, India. Telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe shorted out, some even causing fires. Auroras were seen as far south as Hawaii, Mexico, Cuba, and Italy — phenomena that are usually only seen near the poles. This was the 1859 solar superstorm._


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Matt308 said:


> Our posts clashed.
> 
> I agree with your response.



Oh, so it was meant for Parsifal?


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

I gotta ask... where do you quote this ****? 1859 a Bangalore observatory was equipped to measure nano-Teslas?? Really???


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Wikipedia ofcourse 

The Colaba observatory in India was British btw. 

The solarstorm of 1859 is well known though:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859


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## Erich (Dec 14, 2009)

just look to the mideast the end will be here


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Some more is written about it here:
Balfour Stewart - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

_While much attention has been focused on the Carrington Super Flare, which occurred on September 1, 1859 and the associated magnetic storm for which reached the Earth on September 2, 1859, there was an earlier super flare on August 28, 1859, which was documented on the self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory and described by Balfour Stewart [5][6] in a paper presented to the Royal Society on November 21, 1861.

It is unnecessary to enter into further particulars regarding this meteor, as the description of it given by observations at places widely apart have been collected together by Professor E. Loomis, and published in a serious of papers communicated to the American Journal of Science and Arts. I shall only add that, both from the European, the American, and the Australian accounts, there appear to have been two great displays, each commencing at nearly the same absolute time, throughout the globe, —the first on the evening of the 28th of August, and the second on the early morning of the 2nd of September, Greenwich time.

Magnetic disturbances of unusual violence and very wide extent were observed simultaneously with these displays. These were recorded more or less frequently at the various observatories; but at Kew there is the advantage of a set of self-recording magnetographs (the property of the Royal Society), which are in constant operation.

As a description of these instruments has already been published[7] in the volume of the Reports of the British Association for 1859, it is only necessary here to mention that they afford the means of obtaining a continuous photographic register of the state of the three elements of the earth’s magnetic force—namely, the declination, and the horizontal and vertical intensity. Reduced representations of these traces furnished by these instruments during the great disturbance under discussion accompany this paper; and it will now be necessary to give a short description of these.

Stewart goes on the make the following observation.

I now proceed to notice some of the peculiarities of this magnetic storm.

It appears that we have two distinct well-marked disturbances, each commencing abruptly and ending gradually, the first of which began on the evening of August 28 and the second on the early morning of September 2. These two great disturbances correspond therefore in point of time to the two great auroral displays already alluded to.

The second disturbance is now known as the Carrington Super Flare, while the first disturbance is unnamed. As Stewart recorded and described this disturbance, this event will be referred to as the Stewart Super Flare in this discussion.

At the November 11, 1859 meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society, Richard Carrington presented a paper[8] describing his observations of the super flare which occurred on September 1, at 11:18 GMT and later named in his honor. In what appears to be an editorial addition made after the meeting the follow observation was appended in parenthesis.

(Mr. Carrington exhibited at the November Meeting of the Society a complete diagram of the disk of the sun at the time, and copies of the photographic records of the variations of the three variations of the three magnetic elements, as obtained at Kew, and pointed out that a moderate but very marked disturbance took place at about 11h 20m A.M., Sept. 1st, of short duration; and that towards four hours after midnight there commenced a great magnetic storm, which subsequent accounts established to be considerable in the southern as in the northern hemisphere. While the contemporary occurrence may deserve noting, he would not have it supposed that he even leans towards hastily connecting them. “One swallow does not make a summer.”)

From this addendum, it is clear that Richard Carrington was not willing to commit professionally to connecting the magnetic disturbance with the event he had observed on the surface of the sun even though they occurred at nearly identical times. He had indeed displayed the magnetographs at the Royal Astronomical Society meeting. The time of 11:20 GMT is good agreement with other reports but the time of 4:00 GMT on September 2, 1859 for the commencement of the magnetic storm is an hour earlier than reported by Stewart.

Stewart also reported[6] on the magnetic disturbance which occurred at the same time as the event observed by Richard Carrington.

But, beside these two remarkable disturbances into which it divided itself, this great storm comprehends a minor disturbance, not approaching these two in extent, but yet possessing an interest peculiar to itself, which entitles it to be mentioned. On September 1, a little before noon, Mr. R.C. Carrington happened to be observing, by means of a telescope, a large spot which might then be seen on the surface of our luminary, when a remarkable appearance presented itself, which he described in a communications to the Royal Astronomical Society. (Richard Carrington’s paper is then quoted at length.) On calling at Kew Observatory a day or two afterwards, Mr. Carrington learned that at the very moment when he had observed this phenomena the three magnetic elements at Kew were simultaneously disturbed. If no connexion had been known to subsist between these two classes of phenomena, it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this in any other light than a casual coincidence; but since General Sabine has proved that a relation subsists between magnetic disturbances and sun spots, it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act. This disturbance occurred as nearly as possible at 11h 15m A.M. Greenwich mean time, on September 1, 1859, affecting all the elements simultaneously, and commencing quite abruptly.

By citing the previous research of Edward Sabine, which established a correlation between sunspots and magnetic storms, Stewart was able to correctly advance the theory that the event observed by Richard Carrington and the magnetic disturbance which was recorded at the same time were in fact connected. The magnetic phenomena which occurred at about 11:18 GMT on September 1, 1859 are now known as a Solar Flare Effect (SFE) or a Magnetic Crochet, but the connection would not be proven for another 80 years[9]. The SEF is a sudden ionosphere disturbances caused by soft X-rays and Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) driven enhancement of the ionosphere current vortices responsible for the regular daily variation observed on magnetometer traces. SFE are mostly observed in locations close to the sub-solar point (i.e. the point on earth when the sun is overhead) and can only be observed from stations in the sunlit hemisphere at the time of the solar flare. Using Stewart’s times, the magnetic storm associated with the Carrington Super Flare took 17 hours and 45 minutes to reach the Earth.

Stewart reported that the magnetic storm from the Steward Supper Flare, began at 22:30 GMT on the evening of August 28, 1859 as recorded by self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory. Assuming that the transit time for the first super flare was the same as the second or 17 hours and 45 minutes, the Steward Supper Flare occurred at about 04:45 GMT on the morning of August 28, 1859. As the Solar Flare Effect can only be observed from the sunlit hemisphere the question becomes, what time was sunrise at the Kew Observatory on the morning of August 28, 1859?

The coordinates for Kew Observatory are (51°29'N, 0°17'W). Using the US Naval Observatory “Sun or Moon Rise/Set Table for One Year” calculator,sunrise on the morning of August 28, 1859 sunrise was 05:06GMT. The Kew Observatory was still 21 minutes from sunrise and the Solar Flare Effect would not have been registered by the self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory.

Steward did not publish the magnetograph records for the morning of August 28, 1859. While it is extremely unlikely, the original magnetograph records for that date should be inspected to determine if any disturbance was recorded because of the uncertainties in timings and the nearness of sunrise.

In the time zone at GMT+7 in would have been 15 minutes to high noon on August 28. Any observatory situated at plus or minus two time zones would have been in an excellent position to observe the super flare and record the magnetic signature of Solar Flare Effect. Unfortunately in 1859 the Kew Observatory had the only self-recording magnetographs[7]. Other magnetic observatories were manually operated and typically only took readings at hourly intervals unless there was a magnetic storm, in which case readings were taken at 15 minute intervals. One such magnetic observatory was the Colaba Observatory on the Island of Colaba which is now part of Mumbai (Bombay), India at GMT+5.5. In a 2003 paper[10] the manually recorded magnetic readings from the Colaba Observatory for September 1, through September 2, 1859 were recalibrated and evaluated. No mention is made in this paper of reading before September 1 or any visual observations of the sun. After 150 years it is very unlikely that any additional data will surface but any reports of strange events about noon Asian time on August 28, 1859 would be of interest._


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## Flyboy2 (Dec 14, 2009)

In that movie _2012_ the north pole was in Michigan after some killer neutrinos fried the planet....


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## Matt308 (Dec 14, 2009)

Soren said:


> Wikipedia ofcourse
> 
> The Colaba observatory in India was British btw.
> 
> ...



 Interesting when the whole Guassian science was invented in 1835. Ability to measure to that quantitave degree just a few years later is historically phenomenal. Or BS. And your Wiki post is telling don't you think?


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

I don't think we need to fear the end of the world any time soon Flyboy2  

In the movie 2012, which is complete sci-fi btw, something happened to the earth's core as-well I believe, which caused giant volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and sh*t right? 

Worst thing that can happen in case of a solar storm in reality is that all our electronics fry up. Plus the weakened magnetic feld would leave us more exposed radiation from the sun.


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Matt308 said:


> Interesting when the whole Guassian science was invented in 1835. Ability to measure to that quantitave degree just a few years later is historically phenomenal. Or BS. And your Wiki post is telling don't you think?



Well as we all know you can't trust blindly in Wikipedia  So I don't know for sure about the 1600 nT, esp. also as my knowledge on Guassian science isn't exactly huge. 

But I did find this: 
1. ScienceDirect - Advances in Space Research : Dst of the Carrington storm of 1859
2. http://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...serid=10&md5=6a4dbde5eb6607a6b1ccde06c5bb6edd


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## Flyboy2 (Dec 14, 2009)

Oh i didn't believe any of that movies crap anyways.

The Earth went down hill because neutrinos from the sun began mutating. Anybody who knows about particle physics knows that neutrinos are some of the most weakly interacting particles in the universe, so weak in fact that a million of them go through your finger every second or so. In the movie, the neutrinos began carrying energy and then fried the Earth's core, but magically not the people... It was grade-A pseudophysics nonsense....

Also i'm not sure a solar storm of the magnitude you discribe could happen anytime soon. I might be wrong, and any physics and astronomy people please correct me, but the sun isn't going to evolve into a red giant for another few million years, so I'm not sure that massive solar storms could happen for a long, long time. The suns composition would have to change dramatically, and those things don't happen overnight haha


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

Agreed Flyboy2, but regarding the solar storms, well they won't get bigger than those recorded earlier I believe, but that's not the issue either. The problem is that when the earths magnetic poles shift it will weaken its protective magnetic field according to the scientists. And this weakening of the magnetic field would mean that another geomagnetic storm of the same magnitude as earlier ones could wreck a lot more havoc than ever before in history, even leaving entire continents without electric power and electronic machinery. And geomagnetic storms tend to happen around the time the sun's own poles start to shift. That's the issue.

Wether it will ever come to such a dramatic thing happening is anyone's guess, but it is worrying me abit.


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## Soren (Dec 14, 2009)

You can watch abit about solar storms in this documentary from Discovery channel (Remember this is assuming the absolute worst case scenario but doesn't take into account the shifting of the poles weakening earth's magnetic field), here's part one, the rest can be found on the right bar: 
_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIr6nfwpctA_


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## parsifal (Dec 15, 2009)

Have not read all the posts regarding the shifting of the Poles, but I would just say that the Poles rotate around the axis of the true poles all the time. The Magnetic axis rotates through about 12.5 degrees over roughly a 25 year period. Its position relative to true north is recorded in the Nautical almanac, and has been known and predicted for the best part of 500 years, if my memory serves me correctly


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## timshatz (Dec 15, 2009)

parsifal said:


> Have not read all the posts regarding the shifting of the Poles, but I would just say that the Poles rotate around the axis of the true poles all the time. The Magnetic axis rotates through about 12.5 degrees over roughly a 25 year period. Its position relative to true north is recorded in the Nautical almanac, and has been known and predicted for the best part of 500 years, if my memory serves me correctly



Not exactly "up" on it either, only breezed through the posts but I'm with ya' on this one Parsifal. It wobbles around all the time. Magnetic deviation has shifted from what it was when I started taking flying lessons (back in the 80s) to now. Not a lot, couple of degrees. Enough to get you really, really lost on a long flight.

But back to the shifting of the poles. While I agree it's a concern in the Macro, in the micro/our lifetime, I'm not the slightest worried. More worried about devaluation of cuirrency or defaulting on debt than that. In short, man made catastrophes look a lot more likely than something external (solar flares not withstanding).


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## Soren (Dec 16, 2009)

Please don't confuse the slight magnetic rotation around the true geographical poles with a geomagnetic reversal, it's an entirely different deal. That the geomagnetic poles circle slightly around the geographical ones is entirely normal, it has been doing that all the time with no implications for our magnetic field and will continue to do so. A geomagnetic reversal will however significantly weaken our magnetic field, all the way down to 10% of its normal strength, and according to scientists it will be like this for over a thousand years - which is bad incase we get hit by another solar storm, which sadly seems to be a 50 to 100 year regularity.

On the positive side I have however also heard that radiation exposure wont be much of a factor seeing that despite our magnetic field being weakened our atmosphere will absorb most of the sun's radiaton anyway. Which means we can still safely be out in the sun. It is our electronic devices which are at stake.


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## timshatz (Dec 16, 2009)

I dunno Soren, seems like something of a Black Swan. And predictiing those things is an impossible event. While I agree with you the magnetic poles will swap, 100% chance. The odds of it happening in our life time are relatively insignificant. When was the last time they swapped? 

As for the solar storm, much better chance of that wrecking the electronic infrastructure and, even worse, the backed up data. However, like any storm, predicting what will be destroyed and what will not is an impossible action.Like a Hurricane, some stuff will get whacked, and some stuff won't. But the total destruction of the electronic infrastructure is very unlikely. Varying degrees of damage based on a multitude of factors is more likely. 

More likely than the Solar Storm of 1859 is a smaller storm like the one that pasted Canada. My understanding of the 1859 storm is it was a once in every 500 years event while the storm that hit Canada was a more frequent event.


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## Soren (Dec 16, 2009)

The problem is that we seem to very long overdue for the next reversal. So while we could infact be thousands of years away from the next one, it could on the other hand also be within the next year or two.


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## timshatz (Dec 16, 2009)

Soren said:


> The problem is that we seem to very long overdue for the next reversal. So while we could infact be thousands of years away from the next one, it could on the other hand also be within the next year or two.



Ya' just never know...hell with it, have a beer and forget about it.


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## gumbyk (Dec 16, 2009)

Soren,
During the reversal, the magnetic field strength does not disappear, but it certainly gets confused.



> They've also learned what happens during a magnetic flip. Reversals take a few thousand years to complete, and during that time--contrary to popular belief--the magnetic field does not vanish. "It just gets more complicated," says Glatzmaier. Magnetic lines of force near Earth's surface become twisted and tangled, and magnetic poles pop up in unaccustomed places. A south magnetic pole might emerge over Africa, for instance, or a north pole over Tahiti. Weird. But it's still a planetary magnetic field, and it still protects us from space radiation and solar storms.



From NASA - Earth's Inconstant Magnetic Field


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## Amsel (Dec 16, 2009)

You guys are crazy.


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## Matt308 (Dec 16, 2009)

What about a solar "kill shot"? Or a destructive meteorite? Or an explosive natural gas emission from under sea? Or mega-quake? Or the Polar ice shelves calving and creating a super-tsunamai? Or a super-volcano arising in the Aleutian Islands? Or a killer virus originating out the African jungle resulting in billions of people bleeding out with liquid organs? Or a Ukranian super-flu that is hidden underneath the H1N1 virus? Or an orbital collision from the outer reaches of the solar system? Or my underwear being too small for my fat azz? All are possible. The latter likely.


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## Njaco (Dec 16, 2009)

> ....Or an explosive natural gas emission from under sea? ....



I actually experienced that one time!!!!! But it was in my living room, not undersea.


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## vikingBerserker (Dec 16, 2009)




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## Matt308 (Dec 16, 2009)

Njaco said:


> I actually experienced that one time!!!!! But it was in my living room, not undersea.




You might still qualify for exorbitant western nation monetary subsidies for such a tragedy. I think skid marks are covered.


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## Clay_Allison (Dec 17, 2009)

Matt308 said:


> What about a solar "kill shot"? Or a destructive meteorite? Or an explosive natural gas emission from under sea? Or mega-quake? Or the Polar ice shelves calving and creating a super-tsunamai? Or a super-volcano arising in the Aleutian Islands? Or a killer virus originating out the African jungle resulting in billions of people bleeding out with liquid organs? Or a Ukranian super-flu that is hidden underneath the H1N1 virus? Or an orbital collision from the outer reaches of the solar system? Or my underwear being too small for my fat azz? All are possible. The latter likely.


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## Soren (Dec 17, 2009)

The thing the worries me abit about this is that it has reportedly been simulated in a computer model which found the next reversal to happen at around 2011 to 2014. Anyway don't get me wrong, it's not like I loose sleep at night because of it, not in any way, it's just interesting to think about sometimes and it's certainly a lot more plausible than WW3 happening anytime soon IMO.

As for virus pandemics, well it has to be something really killer to even threaten us the slightest, esp. with the hype going on in the media these days. My experience over the years tells me that it's only really bad when the news starts telling you to completely stay indoors and remain calm


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## timshatz (Dec 17, 2009)

Njaco said:


> I actually experienced that one time!!!!! But it was in my living room, not undersea.



And I thought it was all the swamp gasses in Jersey that made the place smell funny...


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## timshatz (Dec 17, 2009)

Matt308 said:


> What about a solar "kill shot"? Or a destructive meteorite? Or an explosive natural gas emission from under sea? Or mega-quake? Or the Polar ice shelves calving and creating a super-tsunamai? Or a super-volcano arising in the Aleutian Islands? Or a killer virus originating out the African jungle resulting in billions of people bleeding out with liquid organs? Or a Ukranian super-flu that is hidden underneath the H1N1 virus? Or an orbital collision from the outer reaches of the solar system? Or my underwear being too small for my fat azz? All are possible. The latter likely.



I have a plan for all of it (with exception of the underwear affect- local phenomina). It involves sitting down my basement with about 60 bottles of red wine (all the better to counter the radiation that might show up), beer and other sundry alcohols, any odds and ends of frozen foods that might be hanging around the house (there's usually a ton of it) and me and my fat ass on the couch watching Wolf Blizter lose his f-----g mind! Planning on shipping the wife and kid off to Italy if there is time too!

I've been waiting for the day for years, really, I have. For no better reason than the entertainment value.


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