# Coronavirus Thread



## Zipper730 (Feb 28, 2020)

I think we need a thread to keep abreast of what's going on: This isn't to be political.

I've been hearing some figures that are coming in from Italy and Iran.

Italy COVID-19 Death Toll Rises to 21
So far, indications suggest 21 dead out of 820 total, making for a mortality rate of 2.56% These figures seem to conform with other statistical listings cited.

Iran's Deaths at Least 210, Hospitals Say
I'm not sure what the mortality rate is because the hospitals are listing 210 dead and the Iranian government only listing 34 dead. Without further information, it's making it difficult to calculate mortality rates.


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## fubar57 (Feb 28, 2020)

...and for some reason, certain people are panicking.






​

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## michael rauls (Feb 29, 2020)

I'm not sure exactly what to make of it. By some metrics it looks like nothing anymore worrisome than a bad flu and by others quite bad.
I think the potential bad case scenario involves sheer numbers. While the fatality rate is no more spectacular than a bad flu it is about 3 or 4 times more contagious.
Whether this turns out to be just another" bad flu year" kinda thing or something really ugly because 2% of say 30% of the worlds population is alot of people, will depend on how much of a foothold it gets.
Looks to me like it has the potential to be either no big deal or the Spanish Flu act 2.
Lets just hope its the former.

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## Zipper730 (Feb 29, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I'm not sure exactly what to make of it. By some metrics it looks like nothing anymore worrisome than a bad flu and by others quite bad.


And I'm not sure if it's healthcare related, genetic variables, or some combination of both.


> I think the potential bad case scenario involves sheer numbers. While the fatality rate is no more spectacular than a bad flu it is about 3 or 4 times more contagious.


Which means more infections.


> Looks to me like it has the potential to be either no big deal or the Spanish Flu act 2.


The population is a lot higher these days than it was back in 1918. We might see death tolls that would be around 80-200 million if the numbers were increased four fold (I saw that number come up before).


> Lets just hope its the former.


I think most sane people want that!


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## fubar57 (Feb 29, 2020)

The more I thought about this the more I think, “Not really seeing the point of this thread”. Do we need a thread to “keep abreast of everything “.... no....that’s what news channels and apps are for. We’re not going to solve anything, we’re just a bunch of motley aviation enthusiasts. Up to this point fear mongering is more deadlier than the disease. With that said, will I participate in it anymore.....no....I’d rather lick doorknobs in China

edit: bloody typos. go over everything twice and never see it

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## pbehn (Feb 29, 2020)

Sales of Corona beer have been hit. Think about that when people discuss society's response.

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## michael rauls (Feb 29, 2020)

I'll one better you on the lame societal response. People from Carona( Carona, Ca for those not familiar) have been getting harrased on line apparently as if they are carriers because they are from Carona.
Dont know exactly how many incidents of this there have been but its enough that it made the news.

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## fubar57 (Feb 29, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Sales of Corona beer have been hit. Think about that when people discuss society's response.



Have been hit? Who here remembers what happened to the "Ayds Diet Plan" back in the 80's?

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## herman1rg (Feb 29, 2020)

38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency 

Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona

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## pbehn (Feb 29, 2020)

herman1rg said:


> 38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency
> 
> Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona


Its no better in UK, any public education campaign starts from a staggeringly low level. even with the people supposedly in charge.

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## fubar57 (Feb 29, 2020)



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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 29, 2020)

*I'm on the fence on keeping this around, if it gets remotely political I will nuke this thread in a NY minute. IMO if you're worried about Coronavirus, go on Facebook!*

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## Marcel (Feb 29, 2020)

Corona virus is spreading rapidly. The main carrier are banknotes. So please collect all your banknotes and put them in a plastic bag and send them to me. I will collect them and put them in a safe place....

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## michael rauls (Feb 29, 2020)

herman1rg said:


> 38% of American beer drinkers surveyed this week said they wouldn'y buy Corona "under any circumstances" at the moment. It's worth noting that, among regular Corona drinkers, only 4% said they would now refrain. Yet 14% of the Corona drinkers admitted they would not order the brand in a public place, found the survey, conducted by 5W Public Relations. Sixteen percent of the beer drinkers surveyed by 5W were confused about whether Corona beer is related to the coronavirus, according to the publicity agency
> 
> Because of coronavirus, 38% of beer-drinking Americans now say they won't order a Corona


I don't find it surprising that these people exist, unfortunately. The percentages expressed in this survey however do leave me stunned............and just a bit worried honestly.

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## mikewint (Feb 29, 2020)

Corona Virus is a TYPE of virus and there were 6 types that infected humans. This newly evolved type is Number Seven.
Probably the two most well known corona viruses known to infect humans are SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) followed by MERS. Two more, human coronaviruses causing infections are 229E and OC43, which are responsible for the majority of cases of the common cold. Number Five is NL63 an alpha coronavirus which was identified in 2004 in Amsterdam in a young child suffering from a severe respiratory infection. Number Six is HKU1 a beta coronavirus which was identified in 2006 in Hong Kong in 13 patients suffering from, again, a severe upper respiratory infection. The newly evolved Number Seven virus is SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19. A close relative of the original SARS virus, it has recently evolved to be able to infect humans.

What made SARS of particular threat in 2002-2003 was that, along with its close relative Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), it is the only pathogen on the World Health Organization’s R&D Blueprint list of priority diseases which can be spread from human to human respiratorily. SARS spread to 37 countries and infected roughly 8,000 killing 750 for a lethality rate of about 10%. MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) is less easily passed from human to human, but has greater lethality, killing 35% of about 2,500 people who have been infected. Viruses in other families like filoviruses (wherein Ebola is classified) have higher mortality rates, but are also less easily passed from person to person.
Before it was contained, 8,000 people had contracted SARS; more than 700 people died. All told, SARS is estimated to have cost between $30 and $50 billion to the global economy from 2002 to 2003.
The mortality rate was around 2% in the epicentre of the outbreak, Hubei province, and less than that elsewhere. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. SARS had a death rate of more than 10%.

These infectious viral diseases have a tendency to evolve in China where population densities are high, humans live in close proximity to animals, and like COVID-19 originated in areas where live and freshly slaughtered animals of all species, reptiles, birds, mammals, fish were sold. COVID-19 in particular evolved in China’s Guangdong Province’s open air markets. Chinese scientists also identified horseshoe bats as the virus’ natural reservoir of the COVID-19 virus.
While the resulting URI caused by Covid-19, is not as fatal on a case-by-case basis, its greater spread has already led to more deaths than its related coronaviruses types.

The new study in China examined data from 72,314 patients, 44,672 of which were confirmed cases of the virus (61.8%), along with 10,567 clinically diagnosed cases (14.6%) and 16,186 suspected cases (22.4%). An additional 889 cases examined did not show any symptoms.
"Clinically diagnosed cases," are patients who demonstrate all the symptoms of Covid-19 but have either not been able to get a test or are believed to have falsely tested negative.
Of the 44,672 confirmed cases, the Chinese CDC said there were 1,023 deaths, a crude mortality rate of 2.3%, which is in line with other studies and projections. By comparison, SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6% during the 2003 outbreak, while MERS has a case fatality of 35%. Seasonal influenza, which is highly contagious and effects tens of millions of people, has a mortality rate of around 0.1%, according to the most recent estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control.

Examination of the COVID-19 fatalities show that many had preexisting conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. Males had a death rate of 2.8% while females had a death rate of 1.7%. Age also is a factor. In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%. No deaths have occurred under the age of ten so far.

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## michael rauls (Feb 29, 2020)

Age and whether or not one is a smoker seem to be the two most determining factors in fatality rate disparities other than pre existing conditions like diabetes. Nothing we can do about our age but if you still smoke, now might be a good time to quit. The lungs begin to repair almost immediately and nicotine gum or patches make it pretty easy. Trust me I know.
Not trying to proselytize. Just hope this will be a little encouragement for someone who could benefit.

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## Marcel (Feb 29, 2020)

IMPORTANT!

if you have the following symptoms:
- headache
- restless
- dizziness
- lack of concentration
- sleeplessness
- an annoying sound in your ears

you don’t have corona, you are just married.

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## pbehn (Feb 29, 2020)

No worries I don't eat Chinese food or drink Mexican beer, surprised the Chinese don't make their own beer to be honest.

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## fubar57 (Feb 29, 2020)

Judging by an ignored member alert, I imagine the King of copy/paste has posted here

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## mikewint (Feb 29, 2020)

Dram you're good, got me again. OK I admit that I did not travel to China, I do not have a CDC certified biohazard lab, and didn't do any original research on the virus in my basement lab. The Stats were from the Chinese report as stated in my post. seemed silly to to to paraphrase so to maintain accuracy I did copy them. The rest was looked up from various sources as I did not want false recollection to creep in.
I am very personally interested in this pending pandemic as I am in a group of seriously susceptible individuals for several reasons. So I am closely monitoring all published data

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## Zipper730 (Feb 29, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Before it was contained, 8,000 people had contracted SARS; more than 700 people died. All told, SARS is estimated to have cost between $30 and $50 billion to the global economy from 2002 to 2003.


That's a way higher mortality rate than we've seen in Italy. There's been some suspicion that genetic differences play a role in mortality rate.


> Examination of the COVID-19 fatalities show that many had preexisting conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease.


Hey, I don't have any of those! Seriously speaking, cardiovascular disease seemed to increase the chance of death to the greatest extent.


> Age also is a factor. In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%. No deaths have occurred under the age of ten so far.


At least this isn't like the 1918 flu where the most common deaths occurred between 22 and 40 (an age range I'm within), not that I'm happy anybody's dying from this.


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## fubar57 (Feb 29, 2020)



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## michael rauls (Feb 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> That's a way higher mortality rate than we've seen in Italy. There's been some suspicion that genetic differences play a role in mortality rate.
> Hey, I don't have any of those! Seriously speaking, cardiovascular disease seemed to increase the chance of death to the greatest extent.
> At least this isn't like the 1918 flu where the most common deaths occurred between 22 and 40 (an age range I'm within), not that I'm happy anybody's dying from this.


From what I've read smoking rates are responsible for what they at first thought might be differences in genetic susceptibility. I.e. 70% of adult males smoke in China.
This also accounts for gender susceptibility differences as only 20% of the women do.

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## The Basket (Feb 29, 2020)

How annoying.

I was hoping the world was going to end with an asteroid strike.

Quick flash and that is that.

But now I'm going to sneeze myself to death by drowning in my own snot.

A most dishonourable end.

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## pbehn (Feb 29, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> From what I've read smoking rates are responsible for what they at first thought might be differences in genetic susceptibility. I.e. 70% of adult males smoke in China.
> This also accounts for gender susceptibility differences as only 20% of the women do.


I just self declared as a Chinese woman, I am too smart for these virus critters, they wont catch me with a simple gender/age profile.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 29, 2020)

Meh...

Most cases of the virus are mild, no worse than a common cold. The flu is much worse. 16000 people in just the United States alone die of the Flu each year, and its much more severe symptom wise.

Quit with the fricking panicking for crying out loud.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 29, 2020)

Some of the current numbers were posted earlier. I did some additional math;

46% of those diagnosed have recovered. 49% still have the virus and are being treated. 3.4% have died. Of those who have died, most were older and were determined to be "high risk," already suffering with distressed immune systems or some kind of respiratory problem. I think right now this is no worse than any other flu outbreak seen over the past 30 or 40 years.

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## Marcel (Mar 1, 2020)

Numbers are very unreliable. Half of it come from China and Iran, both governments notorious for changing facts for their own purpose. Also the media is not known for accuracy in these matters. I saw in the media that people were advised to use a disinfectant gel. We’re talking a virus here, so it won’t help you one bit. We don’t know how many people are really affected. I suspect there are many undetected infections, bringing the death rate way down. Considering everything, the main danger seems to be the mass hysteria that’s building at the moment.

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## The Basket (Mar 1, 2020)

In the event that this turns into a Rapture type scenario and all order breaks down.

If we have to turn cannibal, would it be safe to eat someone who died of Corona virus?

Asking for a friend.


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## Marcel (Mar 1, 2020)

The Basket said:


> In the event that this turns into a Rapture type scenario and all order breaks down.
> 
> If we have to turn cannibal, would it be safe to eat someone who died of Corona virus?
> 
> Asking for a friend.


I would cook it first.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Meh...
> 
> Most cases of the virus are mild, no worse than a common cold. The flu is much worse. 16000 people in just the United States alone die of the Flu each year, and its much more severe symptom wise.
> 
> Quit with the fricking panicking for crying out loud.



Wish the stock market would listen.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Wish the stock market would listen.



Tell me about it...

I don’t even want to look at mine.


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## mikewint (Mar 1, 2020)

Further examination of the COVID-19 virus has shown evidence of snake DNA. The open air market in China where the virus originated also sold freshly butchered snakes as well as bats. Snakes do hunt bats so the link is a possible one.
Viruses require a LIVING host in order to be replicate (viruses cannot replicate themselves. They, viruses, are NOT alive) Thus viruses cannot "grow" in food.
As to eating an infected animal (human or otherwise) one would assume that cooking would be involved. Experience with the related SARS viruses shows that cooking for 30 minutes to 60C will inactivate the virus. So don't eat raw humans.
The virus is passed through direct contact with an infected persons body fluids, fomites from cough or sneeze, contaminated surfaces (the virus can remain active for a few hours on a surface). Bleach/chlorine-based disinfectants, either solvents, 75% ethanol, peracetic acid and chloroform will inactivate the virus on hard surfaces and to a degree on skin but as Marcel posted not completely.
Masks will not block the virus BUT the (P) class masks can filter the fomites from the air. The (N) class are not as effective especially if the fomite has any "oily" component. A P95 mask will filter 95% of the particulate matter from the air.

COVID-19 vs Flu
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data. 

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. 

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times. 

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.


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## Marcel (Mar 1, 2020)

Snake DNA You know Corona is an RNA virus, right?

about masks: it’ll filter the air alright, but you usually get infected by touching a common object, say a door handle, and then scratch your nose for a bit or lips. Masks are only effective in a lab or surgery environment.

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## stona (Mar 1, 2020)

I've recently returned from a brief trip to Sicily, a long way from the epicentre of the infections in northern Italy.

On arrival in Catania (on the 26th) I was greeted by a woman in mask, gown and gloves who took my temperature. I have no idea what would have happened had it not been normal.

Yesterday I flew back to the UK to be greeted by....errr….the rows of automatic passport scanners at Gatwick airport.

However, the Italians seem to have got their knickers in a bit of a twist. My flight was suspiciously light on passengers, it had seemed well booked when I selected my seat. I had a chat with the cabin crew chief and she told me there were ninety on board but that one hundred and eighty six had booked. My rudimentary arithmetic makes that *ninety six no shows*!

I know the Italians are terrible hypochondriacs, all my Italian friends and colleagues cheerfully admit so, but whether this self quarantining will eventually prove to be a clever prophylactic or just a silly panic is yet to be seen

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## fubar57 (Mar 1, 2020)



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## fubar57 (Mar 1, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Snake DNA You know Corona is an RNA virus, right?
> 
> about masks: it’ll filter the air alright, but you usually get infected by touching a common object, say a door handle, and then scratch your nose for a bit or lips. Masks are only effective in a lab or surgery environment.



Why snakes probably aren’t spreading the new China virus

"“They have no evidence snakes can be infected by this new coronavirus and serve as a host for it,” says Paulo Eduardo Brandão, a virologist at the University of São Paulo who is investigating whether coronaviruses can infect snakes at all. “There’s no consistent evidence of coronaviruses in hosts other than mammals and Aves (birds).” "

Scientists Scrutinize New Coronavirus Genome for Answers

"On January 22, a team of China-based scientists published an article based on the virus’ genome that suggested it’s possible the coronavirus emerged from snakes. But, “the paper does not provide direct evidence that this virus was transmitted to humans from snakes and the indirect evidence is tenuous at best,” says Mark Stenglein, a virologist at the University of Colorado, in an email to _The Scientist_. “*Scientists should disseminate only well supported information, especially in the context of a possible public health emergency*.” My bold


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## pbehn (Mar 1, 2020)

stona said:


> However, the Italians seem to have got their knickers in a bit of a twist. My flight was suspiciously light on passengers, it had seemed well booked when I selected my seat. I had a chat with the cabin crew chief and she told me there were ninety on board but that one hundred and eighty six had booked. My rudimentary arithmetic makes that *ninety six no shows*!
> 
> I know the Italians are terrible hypochondriacs, all my Italian friends and colleagues cheerfully admit so, but whether this self quarantining will eventually prove to be a clever prophylactic or just a silly panic is yet to be seen


Obviously another 96 deaths covered up. There was at least one case reported in Sicily, I suppose when you have a system you apply it to every flight.


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## Capt. Vick (Mar 1, 2020)



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## pbehn (Mar 1, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Why snakes probably aren’t spreading the new China virus
> 
> "“They have no evidence snakes can be infected by this new coronavirus and serve as a host for it,” says Paulo Eduardo Brandão, a virologist at the University of São Paulo who is investigating whether coronaviruses can infect snakes at all. “There’s no consistent evidence of coronaviruses in hosts other than mammals and Aves (birds).” "
> 
> ...


Frequently when people pay for research it says what the client pays for. "Possible" can also mean "not impossible" like throwing a 6 on a dice 20 times in a row.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2020)

For those of you posting long and lengthy posts that obviously are not your own words, can you at least provide a source and link? You are not fooling anyone...

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## swampyankee (Mar 1, 2020)

pbehn said:


> No worries I don't eat Chinese food or drink Mexican beer, surprised the Chinese don't make their own beer to be honest.



They do make their own beer. What's somewhat frightening is that there is no evident transmission path for some of the clusters of the virus.

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## fubar57 (Mar 1, 2020)

Pretty good beer IMHO

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## pbehn (Mar 1, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Pretty good beer IMHO
> 
> View attachment 571942​


It will come as no surprise that QingDau was a German colony (nice place I went there when I was working in China) 
from wiki Tsingtao Brewery Co. Ltd. is China's second largest brewery, with about 15% of domestic market share. It was founded in 1903 by German settlers in Qingdao, Shandong province. Its logo displays an image of Zhanqiao, a pier on Qingdao's southern shore.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 1, 2020)

Worth watching

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Meh...
> 
> Most cases of the virus are mild, no worse than a common cold. The flu is much worse. 16000 people in just the United States alone die of the Flu each year, and its much more severe symptom wise.
> 
> Quit with the fricking panicking for crying out loud.



Excuse me, I was wrong with my numbers. Flu deaths in the US average between 12,000 and 50,000 per year. 2018 was a record with 80,000 deaths. Why weren’t you panickers not panicking then????

Nothing to see here...

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2020)

pbehn said:


> It will come as no surprise that QingDau was a German colony (nice place I went there when I was working in China)
> from wiki Tsingtao Brewery Co. Ltd. is China's second largest brewery, with about 15% of domestic market share. It was founded in 1903 by German settlers in Qingdao, Shandong province. Its logo displays an image of Zhanqiao, a pier on Qingdao's southern shore.



Anheuser Busch was started by a German brewer too, and look how they screwed up his beer. Bud and Bud Lite should not even be classified as a beer. He is rolling over in his grave.

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## pbehn (Mar 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Anheuser Busch was started by a German brewer too, and look how they screwed up his beer. Bud and Bud Lite should not even be classified as a beer. He is rolling over in his grave.


 Beer as a drink was unheard of in the far east so when "the west" started trading they took it with them, Most Japanese beer companies started with German tech too, from what I remember. Its the same with bread whereas some stuff like noodles went the other way.


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## rochie (Mar 1, 2020)



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## Bernhart (Mar 2, 2020)




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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Anheuser Busch was started by a German brewer too, and look how they screwed up his beer.


So was Adolph Coors...

Now, if this were 1919 and there was word of Influenza going around, I'd be a bit concerned. But it's not and neither am I.

Now, back to my St. Pauli Girl beers - all y'all carry on


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## michael rauls (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Numbers are very unreliable. Half of it come from China and Iran, both governments notorious for changing facts for their own purpose. Also the media is not known for accuracy in these matters. I saw in the media that people were advised to use a disinfectant gel. We’re talking a virus here, so it won’t help you one bit. We don’t know how many people are really affected. I suspect there are many undetected infections, bringing the death rate way down. Considering everything, the main danger seems to be the mass hysteria that’s building at the moment.


I think thats a good point. The 2.5% fatality rate is of diagnosed cases. If at least half of the cases are not diagnosed, which seems like if anything a conservative estimate then that rate would be cut in half.
So the actual fatality rate is probably somewhere around .7 to 1.25 at most.
That would be a bad flu but no worse as far as fatality rate. It is more contagious apparently but it certainly doesn't look as worrisome as the media were making it out to be.

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## Elmas (Mar 2, 2020)

Let's imagine posted
HERE
a photo of a beautiful girl wearing a bikini.

Well, statistics are exactly like bikinis.
What they show is suggestive, but what they hide is essential...

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## Sid327 (Mar 2, 2020)

Elmas said:


> Let's imagine posted
> HERE
> a photo of a beautiful girl wearing a bikini.
> 
> ...




...........and you've gotta love the essentials. hahaha!


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## Lucky13 (Mar 2, 2020)

Anything and everything where media is involved, raises one or several....






Believe nothing you hear, half of what you read, and some of what you see, or how it goes.... 😉😆😂

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## Lucky13 (Mar 2, 2020)




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## The Basket (Mar 2, 2020)

If one remembers Betelgeuse was going to explode in a giant super nova and I looked at Orion last night and the shoulder was still there.

So media and science don't mix.

The media was all over the Betelgeuse story and lo and behold total nonsense.

If it's in the papers it ain't true.

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## Wayne Little (Mar 2, 2020)

On our news tonight....reported we have people clearing shelves of essentials and stocking up in case everyone has to stay home for 2 weeks...are you fricking kidding me....


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## fubar57 (Mar 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> For those of you posting long and lengthy posts that obviously are not your own words, can you at least provide a source and link? You are not fooling anyone...



What constitutes Plagiarism?

Pretty much like posting photos here without citing the source

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## Sid327 (Mar 2, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> They do make their own beer. What's somewhat frightening is that there is no evident transmission path for some of the clusters of the virus.




I believe their breweries were either set up or copied from Germany.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 2, 2020)

Wayne Little said:


> On our news tonight....reported we have people clearing shelves of essentials and stocking up in case everyone has to stay home for 2 weeks...are you fricking kidding me....



Pffft, that happens here when the weather forecaster calls for 2 mm of snow.

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## Peter Gunn (Mar 2, 2020)

I dunno, my wife is pretty thoughtful, she surprised me with a couple of nice gifts last week, one was a $500,000 dollar life insurance policy on me and the other was an all expense paid trip to China.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2020)

My Uncle was married to a Chinese national nd when he passed a couple years ago, she cleaned out his estate and high-tailed it back to China, leaving me and my sister with very little - meaning literally no physical items (she sold his vehicles before probate and had an auction company come in and haul EVERYTHING off at the same time) and weaseled the financial part with the help of a Chinese-American lawyer.

So if ANYONE deserves a six-pack of Corona virus, that greedy hoe is is at the top of my list...

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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2020)

Our meeting with Microsoft last week has been postponed as we think that Defender is not the best program to use for anti-virus.

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## fubar57 (Mar 2, 2020)



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## Zipper730 (Mar 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Anheuser Busch was started by a German brewer too, and look how they screwed up his beer. Bud and Bud Lite should not even be classified as a beer. He is rolling over in his grave.


My mom worked for Philips, and when people came over from Holland, they would howl at how the Heineken we have here is totally different from theirs (and in a bad way).


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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> My mom worked for Philips, and when people came over from Holland, they would howl at how the Heineken we have here is totally different from theirs (and in a bad way).


Even here Heineken is horse piss.

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## mikewint (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Snake DNA You know Corona is an RNA virus, right?



A newly published article in the *Journal of Medical Virology* is reporting the *first results* of a genetic study into the DNA of the novel coronavirus currently spreading across the globe. The research suggests the new virus may have originated in snakes, which were known to be sold at the animal market in Wuhan where the outbreak began.
Further study of the particular protein codes favored by the virus suggests the most likely animals that harbored 2019-nCoV before it jumped to humans were snakes.
“Results derived from our evolutionary analysis suggest for the first time that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV,” the researchers conclude in the study. “New information obtained from our evolutionary analysis is highly significant for effective control of the outbreak caused by the 2019-nCoV-induced pneumonia.”

“Snakes often hunt for bats in wild,” the scientists write in The Conversation. “Reports indicate that snakes were sold in the local seafood market in Wuhan, raising the possibility that the 2019-nCoV might have jumped from the host species – bats – to snakes and then to humans at the beginning of this coronavirus outbreak. However, how the virus could adapt to both the cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts remains a mystery.”

Wei Ji, a microbiologist at Peking University Health Science Center School of Basic Medical Sciences in Beijing, and his colleagues analyzed codons used by 2019-nCoV. Codons, which are trios of DNA or RNA that dictate amino acids in a protein, tend to be similar between a virus and the animal it infects. The team compared 2019-nCoV’s codons with those in potential animal reservoirs, including humans, chickens, bats, hedgehogs, pangolins and two snake species.
Based on similarities between the virus’s codons and those of its potential animal hosts, “snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV,” the researchers write. Wei and his team suggest a virus from the many-banded krait (Bungarus multicinctus) or Chinese cobra (Naja atra) may have combined with a bat virus and sparked the new outbreak.



Marcel said:


> and then scratch your nose for a bit or lips. Masks are only effective in a lab or surgery environment.


Some studies indicate that humans touch their face about 23 times per hour and if those touches include the lips, mouth, nose, or eyes pathogens can enter. A mask of any type will remove touches to the lips, mouth, and nose unless the mask is removed or pushed aside so left alone the mask is reducing the number of entry points. In groups of people the most likely entry is via fomites from an infected carrier coughing, sneezing, clearing throat, etc. Fomites are much larger than the virus itself and thus a P95 or N95 or better mask is effective in stopping 95% or more of these particles from entering the lungs. The P variety is effective against oily particles and as such affords even more protection. 
Susceptible individuals are foolish not to take any and all steps to limit exposure to the virus if and when it becomes endemic in your area


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## pbehn (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Even here Heineken is horse piss.


I was served a beer in China that was 1.2% proof.


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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2020)

Mike, the Corona virus has RNA, not DNA.

for the rest, the findings of the Chinese researchers back in January about the virus coming from a snake has been highly disputed by scientists globally. They just don’t have any convincing proof.

And take it from me, the face masks won’t help if you don’t change them regularly in a sterile environment. You will get the virus everywhere else and at one point you will touch your face unprotected You should also wear gloves and a special suit that you also change regularly. Then it might help.
They do help however when you are infected yourself to prevent others to be infected by you.
as for your last remark. There already is a shortage of these masks due to the high demand. Doctors and nurses will not get the protection they need while people use them ineffectively on the street. Think about that when buying the masks.

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## mikewint (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Mike, the Corona virus has RNA, not DNA.



No debate whatsoever however associated with the RNA strand: 
Structure
Spherical or pleomorphic enveloped particles containing single-stranded (positive-sense) RNA associated with a *nucleoprotein *within a capsid comprised of matrix protein. The envelope bears club-shaped glycoprotein projections

and the codon protein codes appear, prima facie, to resemble those found in snakes. I quoted the article. My sense of it was that some DNA/RNA Protein Codes from snakes had migrated into the viral RNA strand of the COVID-19 viral particle. 






As to masks, again I agree with you in principle however, while they are not an impregnable barrier they do offer a valuable service in, as I posted, #1 limiting touching lips, mouth, and nose; and #2 significantly limiting inhalation of foreign fomites present in any crowd of other humans who don't believe in covering their mouths when they cough/sneeze/etc. Not to mention those "Highly dedicated" individuals who drag their infected bodies to work/stores/church/school/etc shedding billions of virus particles into the air for all to enjoy.
In fact the masks would be more effective *IF* the individuals *DOING* the cough/sneeze would wear one.
Individual P95 and N95 masks are selling for $20 - $30 USD and more here in the states IF you can find them. Personally I already have several as I use the P95 type when airbrushing. Wish I had that 100 box I was going to get last year...


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## Elmas (Mar 2, 2020)

Hey, dude!
do you want a bottle of disinfectant?

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## Elmas (Mar 2, 2020)

When in the midst of an international Summit, President Xi Jinping ( and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte) sneezes...

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## fubar57 (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Mike, the Corona virus has RNA, not DNA.
> 
> for the rest, the findings of the Chinese researchers back in January about the virus coming from a snake has been highly disputed by scientists globally. They just don’t have any convincing proof.
> 
> ...


You have to copy/paste to get through to him Marcel

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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> You have to copy/paste to get through to him Marcel


I’ll post the corona virus genome. 

Edit: No, the forum don’t let me.


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## mikewint (Mar 2, 2020)



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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2020)

Data
You can download it yourself, you lazy buggers 

Mike, Viruses don’t take over DNA from their hosts. These viruses ’inject’ RNA into cells which then is translated by the cells In order to replicate the virus. That’s all a virus does. What the Chinese researchers claim is that the protein shell of the virus contains amino acids that ‘fit’ the snake’s cells. This is a highly debatable claim as it also fits many mammals and corona viruses tend to thrive on mammals and not reptiles.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2020)

mikewint said:


> No debate whatsoever however associated with the RNA strand:
> Structure
> Spherical or pleomorphic enveloped particles containing single-stranded (positive-sense) RNA associated with a *nucleoprotein *within a capsid comprised of matrix protein. The envelope bears club-shaped glycoprotein projections
> 
> ...



You do you realize you are talking to a microbiologist right?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Data
> You can download it yourself, you lazy buggers
> 
> Mike, Viruses don’t take over DNA from their hosts. These viruses ’inject’ RNA into cells which then is translated by the cells In order to replicate the virus. That’s all a virus does. What the Chinese researchers claim is that the protein shell of the virus contains amino acids that ‘fit’ the snake’s cells. This is a highly debatable claim as it also fits many mammals and corona viruses tend to thrive on mammals and not reptiles.



Bam!

That was not copy and pasted!

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## gumbyk (Mar 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Data
> You can download it yourself, you lazy buggers
> 
> Mike, Viruses don’t take over DNA from their hosts. These viruses ’inject’ RNA into cells which then is translated by the cells In order to replicate the virus. That’s all a virus does. What the Chinese researchers claim is that the protein shell of the virus contains amino acids that ‘fit’ the snake’s cells. This is a highly debatable claim as it also fits many mammals and corona viruses tend to thrive on mammals and not reptiles.


Latest I heard was that the most likely vector is either bats or pangolins (or possibly both), and that the snake theory is pretty much debunked.


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## Airframes (Mar 2, 2020)

Phew !
And I thought it was Special fFied Rice - what a relief !


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## fubar57 (Mar 2, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Latest I heard was that the most likely vector is either bats or pangolins (or possibly both), and that the snake theory is pretty much debunked.


No it isn't. Mike copy/pasted a large article


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 2, 2020)

Well, when you're good at something..........................

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## stona (Mar 3, 2020)

Marcel said:


> What the Chinese researchers claim is that the protein shell of the virus contains amino acids that ‘fit’ the snake’s cells. This is a highly debatable claim as it also fits many mammals and corona viruses tend to thrive on mammals and not reptiles.



I've read synopsis of a couple of articles (one from The Lancet the other (I think) from New Scientist) and both agreed, as of a few days ago, that the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is not known. They also agreed that the origin was certainly in 'wildlife', but which species remains, so far, undetermined.


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## Lucky13 (Mar 3, 2020)

This is what you get, when you're eating all kinda strange 💩, no? 😉🤨🤔


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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2020)

stona said:


> I've read synopsis of a couple of articles (one from The Lancet the other (I think) from New Scientist) and both agreed, as of a few days ago, that the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is not known. They also agreed that the origin was certainly in 'wildlife', but which species remains, so far, undetermined.


The original 2003 SARS was found to probably originate from bats. The corona viruses found in those paricular bats were suspiciously similar to the SARS that infected humans. I suspect it will be the same here as well, but it's too early to say.

The Chinese research suggests that this particular corona virus today originates from bats, but co-existed in a snake, where corona virusses in the snake somehow merged with the bat's corona virus, creating this new violent one. It is something that is possible, but not very likely. the mamal virus would have to 'survive' in the snake long enough in order to 'merge', which is less likely.

I have to rephrase one of my posts earlier. I said:


> Chinese researchers claim is that the protein shell of the virus contains amino acids that ‘fit’ the snake’s cells.



This of course should be triplets instead of amino acids. 

DNA/RNA work in 'words of 3 'letters' called triplets. Each triplet codes for an amino acid. As there are more possible unique triplets then there are amino acids, some different triplets code for the same amino acid. Which of the triplets is used for a specific amino acid is somewhat specific for the species. The Chinese researchers found that the virus uses the same triplets as certain snakes. In other words, one could say the virus' genome seems to speak a similar language to that of the genome of certain snakes. 

One should note that in 2013, a virus was found in horseshoe bats that is almost identical (96%) to the Covid-19 virus. I still believe the bats are the original carriers. The intermediate still remains unclear.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 3, 2020)

I flunked biology....

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## pbehn (Mar 3, 2020)

The England cricket team will not shake hands while on tour of Sri Lanka because of the corona virus. I presume they will all play with their own ball then?


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## stona (Mar 3, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The England cricket team will not shake hands while on tour of Sri Lanka because of the corona virus. I presume they will all play with their own ball then?



Only the England team and the two on field umpires touch the ball during the opposition innings, unless of course one of the opposing batters dumps it into the crowd. At least the wicket-keeper wears gloves 

The team are obviously trying to avoid shaking hands with the entire opposing squad and coaching staff, as is traditional at the conclusion of any international match. This is followed by some by hand shakes with commentators, pundits, interviewers and those presenting various awards.

Personally I think that it's silly and they have been ill advised. They could simply do the handshaking and then wash or disinfect their hands.


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## pbehn (Mar 3, 2020)

stona said:


> Only the England team and the two on field umpires touch the ball during the opposition innings, unless of course one of the opposing batters dumps it into the crowd. At least the wicket-keeper wears gloves
> 
> The team are obviously trying to avoid shaking hands with the entire opposing squad and coaching staff, as is traditional at the conclusion of any international match. This is followed by some by hand shakes with commentators, pundits, interviewers and those presenting various awards.
> 
> Personally I think that it's silly and they have been ill advised. They could simply do the handshaking and then wash or disinfect their hands.


They have banned shaking hands with themselves too. It is a 20-20 competition, the ball goes in the crowd once an over at least, many 4s go in the crowd or are fielded by stewards. Daft tokenism.


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## Lucky13 (Mar 3, 2020)

That's not very cricket now, is it?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2020)

The big question here, is how reloable is the Chinese research reports being fed to the media?

These are the same people who seemed to think that Ethylene Glychol was perfectly fine in baby formula and toothpaste exports (until it was leaked to the media and their minister Clintoned himself to avoid execution...)


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## gumbyk (Mar 3, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> The big question here, is how reloable is the Chinese research reports being fed to the media?
> 
> These are the same people who seemed to think that Ethylene Glychol was perfectly fine in baby formula and toothpaste exports (until it was leaked to the media and their minister Clintoned himself to avoid execution...)


Is there a reason that they would have misled the world? As far as I know, they're not the politicians calling it a hoax...


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## Marcel (Mar 4, 2020)

Shortest horror movie ever

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## pbehn (Mar 5, 2020)

Boris Johnson, the British prime minister visited a hospital and met the staff. Someone mentioned it was a coronary care unit. That's when the stupidity started, and went on all day. Thank heaven we didn't have the internet in 1939, no story is too stupid to travel faster than a fact.


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## ARTESH (Mar 5, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> 1) Iran's Deaths at Least 210, Hospitals Say
> 
> 2) I'm not sure what the mortality rate is because
> 
> ...



1) Never trust to any numbers / statics from officials or hospitals. My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead , all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.

2) Iran's regime will never tells the truth, cuz people have no worth for them.

3) as I said, dead are over 2000 people.

4) for reliable sources, I can suggest you search Telegram , Instagram, Tweeter and other apps like them.

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## Marcel (Mar 5, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> 1) Never trust to any numbers / statics from officials or hospitals. My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead , all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.
> 
> 2) Iran's regime will never tells the truth, cuz people have no worth for them.
> 
> ...


Hi 

 ARTESH


why is the amount of dead so high in your country? How many people were actually infected? The death rate seems to be on average 3%, so that would suggest around 70,000 people infected if your number is correct. That would put you country 2nd hardest hit after China, even way ahead of Korea. How come your country is so hard hit?


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## ARTESH (Mar 5, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Hi
> 
> ARTESH
> 
> ...



Hi dear Marcel, 

1) it has both political and non-political reasons, as you can guess it would cross our Forum's red lines, so I won't talk about it until I can somehow shorten political part of it.

2) believe it or not, there no info!

3) I believe it's even more! Many didn't go to hospitals or Clinics, because it costs very very very expensive, even if you have insurance!

4) I believe it is.

5) Money and Politics , as always!

However, Talking about Iran, in any field, would cause to talk about Politics, and I don't want to receive warnings or being banned or anything else, cuz I really love this forum. So, I need time to think and select correct words for this and some other topics, including Ukrainian plane.
Just give me some time, there are many things to be told!!!


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 5, 2020)

Sid327 said:


> I believe their breweries were either set up or copied from Germany.


Hitler wasn't the father of German anti semitism. Jews had been escaping Germany long before the third Reich. Many of them were pilsener style brewers, a style that wasn't particularly common outside Europe, but caught on quickly when spread around the globe. Can you tell the difference blindfolded between Tsingtao, Kirin, Corona, Heineken, and Carlsberg (the original lager)? Most can't.
Cheers,
Wes


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## Glider (Mar 5, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> Hi dear Marcel,
> 
> 1) it has both political and non-political reasons, as you can guess it would cross our Forum's red lines, so I won't talk about it until I can somehow shorten political part of it.
> 
> ...


You take care of yourself

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## Staffeln Kommandant (Mar 5, 2020)

Agree w/ fubar57’s posts among others along the same line. It never ceases to amaze me how a great portion of the human population lacks any critical thinking. This tendency is just aggravated by stupid following of all things on social media and the press that sees an income stream from drumming up fear. Hope these failures don’t hurt the economy too much. Reminds me of the panic over the Y2K computer non-event event. Chicken Littles seem always with us no matter how science advances.


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## gumbyk (Mar 5, 2020)

Staffeln Kommandant said:


> Agree w/ fubar57’s posts among others along the same line. It never ceases to amaze me how a great portion of the human population lacks any critical thinking. This tendency is just aggravated by stupid following of all things on social media and the press that sees an income stream from drumming up fear. Hope these failures don’t hurt the economy too much. Reminds me of the panic over the Y2K computer non-event event. Chicken Littles seem always with us no matter how science advances.


Y2K was a non-event specifically _because_ critical systems were prepared for it. We still have plenty of date roll-over problems in computer systems, so it is a well-known problem that exists to this day. 

As for Covid-19... A higher fatality rate than flu, more easily transmitted, and a more connected world. There have been separate reports of it jumping across species, besides the Hong Kong study, there's this story. And the long incubation period makes it harder to trace possible contacts. 
It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about.

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## michael rauls (Mar 5, 2020)

Now that we have had several isolated laboratories( cruz ships) to study this so to speak we can put a pretty accurate number on the fatality rate because finally we have an isolated environment where we know exactly how many people contracted Covid19 and how many unfortunately died as a result.
The number is .85. Slightly less than one in a hundred. When one takes into account that the population aboard cruz ships is on average much older than the general population the real number is likely somewhere between .25 and .50( an estamit on my part but I'd be willing to bet pretty close).
Viewed in a micro sense i.e. what if any individual contracts it it is no more worrisome than the flu. Maybe even less so than some of the more verilant strains of flu.
Viewed in a macro sense i.e. affect on humanity as a whole it is worthy of concern however because the greater contagiousness and longer incubation period during which there can be no symptoms yet the virus can be spread could result multiples more cases if it really gets going, which hopefully of course it won't.
Thats my take on it anyway.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 5, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead


Sorry about that


> all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.


Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.

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## michael rauls (Mar 5, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> 1) Never trust to any numbers / statics from officials or hospitals. My mother is an ICU/CCU nurse and dead , all across country have passed beyond 2000 ... Just in Capital, Tehran, there are at least 600 confirmed dead by COVID-19.
> 
> 2) Iran's regime will never tells the truth, cuz people have no worth for them.
> 
> ...


Really, really sorry to hear about your mother. Wish the best for the people of your country( and all of course). It's tragic they have been hit so hard by this. Hopefully it will subside soon.

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## Staffeln Kommandant (Mar 6, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Y2K was a non-event specifically _because_ critical systems were prepared for it. We still have plenty of date roll-over problems in computer systems, so it is a well-known problem that exists to this day.
> 
> As for Covid-19... A higher fatality rate than flu, more easily transmitted, and a more connected world. There have been separate reports of it jumping across species, besides the Hong Kong study, there's this story. And the long incubation period makes it harder to trace possible contacts.
> It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about.



As to Y2K, the point is that “there was immense panic” but “while there was widespread outcry about the potential implications ... not much happened in actuality.” Y2K Definition 

Actually, percentage wise, flu and pneumonia have higher mortality. The deaths from COVID-19 relate to preexisting health problems. Most who contract the virus only have common cold symptoms. More than 80% of cases are classified as a “Mild disease from which a person can recover” while the death rate is 2% of cases. Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants

Your last line “It's definitely something to worry about, but not to panic about” is exactly my point. The danger is psychologically overreacting and the effect of this overreacting on the functioning of society including undue devotion to COVID-19 over other, continuing, problems, undue stress, and undue effect on the economy.


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## gumbyk (Mar 6, 2020)

Staffeln Kommandant said:


> More than 80% of cases are classified as a “Mild disease from which a person can recover” while the death rate is 2% of cases. Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants


The 2% is a low estimate, as its hard to get a figure while the pandemic is in progress, as you don't know exactly how many people have it: Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Mortality rate for influenza is less than 1%, also something complicated by other respiratory issues. But, yes, this virus does seem to disproportionately affect older people. Doesn't help to say that 'it only affects old people, so why should I worry?'


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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Sorry about that
> Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.



Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists! A well planed and executed cleansing. No one would suspects anything!!! Believe it or not! Iran's regime has a long history to do such things. Just have a look at history and you will find enough examples.

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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Really, really sorry to hear about your mother. Wish the best for the people of your country( and all of course). It's tragic they have been hit so hard by this. Hopefully it will subside soon.



We have had experienced worst since 41 years ago!


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## pbehn (Mar 6, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists! A well planed and executed cleansing. No one would suspects anything!!! Believe it or not! Iran's regime has a long history to do such things. Just have a look at history and you will find enough examples.


 I suspected that when one of the first to die was a minister for health and up to a week ago 25% of those confirmed dead were politicians.


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## stona (Mar 6, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> 4) for reliable sources, I can suggest you search Telegram , Instagram, Tweeter and other apps like them.



*Those are absolutely NOT reliable sources.* They have no access to original data or statistics. All they can do is express *opinions based on the LIMITED information* that certain people have. It's like asking a bombardier in a B-17 to provide an assessment of the results of Operation Argument, because he was there.

If the government is not treating its data responsibly then there are NO reliable statistics from Iran and no conclusions can be drawn.

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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2020)

stona said:


> *Those are absolutely NOT reliable sources.* They have no access to original data or statistics. All they can do is express *opinions based on the LIMITED information* that certain people have. It's like asking a bombardier in a B-17 to provide an assessment of the results of Operation Argument, because he was there.
> 
> If the government is not treating its data responsibly then there are NO reliable statistics from Iran and no conclusions can be drawn.


I know that, but also I meant that Cyberspace is much more accurate than regime. At least you can search for videos / photos of dead, at least a part of them.

According to Iran's regime, Iranian army did nothing during Iran Iraq War!!! But can some non trained light equipped brain washed beard rebels (Basij / Sepah militias) stand against an army equipped to teeth and well trained? Without Naval / Aviation / Artillery / Engineering / Medical / Intelligence / etc... support??? 
Of course, No. But according to regime's ideology, they can!!! Because they are Muslim and god will back them! 

Iran's regime is based on religious ideology, so religion, in here, Islam, is the most important thing, nothing else is even worth to think / talk about it. If relates to Islam, it's important, otherwise, F that. This is basic of Iran's regime ideology. 

If you search Iranian sites for Airforce pilots, you will just encounter a few names! But if you search in Instagram / Facebook, you will find even more!!!


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## Zipper730 (Mar 6, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> Well, I believe a great part of these so called dead are Political acitivitists!


So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?


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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?



Not sure about this! But 100% sure for that!
Soon or late, truth will be revealed!


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 6, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> So, the high death toll has nothing to do with genetic variables?


Sounds like he's implying targeted medically assisted political assassination. Nasty stuff.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2020)

Lets please keep this discussion related only to the Corona Virus.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Sorry about that
> Holy shit. The mortality rates seemed very high even by what was *LISTED* (900 total infected, 210 dead: That's 23-1/3%), and if the mortality rates aren't downrated in anyway, there might be a genetic variability that would make this more deadly to certain middle-eastern groups, than to Asians.



You are doing math and drawing conclusions based on unreliable numbers. Please stop it.

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## mikewint (Mar 6, 2020)

From NBC News - 20/20 hindsight!!

HOUSTON — Dr. Peter Hotez says he made the pitch to anyone who would listen. After years of research, his team of scientists in Texas had helped develop a vaccine to protect against a deadly strain of coronavirus. Now they needed money to begin testing it in humans.

But this was 2016. More than a decade had passed since the viral disease known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, had spread through China, killing more than 770 people. That disease, an earlier coronavirus similar to the one now sweeping the globe, was a distant memory by the time Hotez and his team sought funding to test whether their vaccine would work in humans.

"We tried like heck to see if we could get investors or grants to move this into the clinic," said Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "But we just could not generate much interest."
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-new...ret-stockpile-of-medical-supplies-80026693725
That was a big missed opportunity, according to Hotez and other vaccine scientists, who argue that SARS, and the Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS, of 2012, should have triggered major federal and global investments to develop vaccines in anticipation of future epidemics.

Instead, the SARS vaccine that Hotez's team created in collaboration with scientists at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston is sitting in a freezer, no closer to commercial production than it was four years ago.

"We could have had this ready to go and been testing the vaccine's efficacy at the start of this new outbreak in China," said Hotez, who believes the vaccine could provide cross-protection against the new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19. "There is a problem with the ecosystem in vaccine development, and we've got to fix this."
Hotez took that message to Congress on Thursday while testifying before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. He argued that the new coronavirus should trigger changes in the way the government funds vaccine development.

"It's tragic that we won't have a vaccine ready for this epidemic," Hotez wrote in prepared remarks. "Practically speaking, we'll be fighting these outbreaks with one hand tied behind our backs."

As of Friday, there had been more than 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases globally and at least 3,338 deaths. Public health officials are concerned that the virus, which can lead to respiratory failure brought on by pneumonia, will spread widely in the U.S. and last beyond this year — much like the seasonal flu, but more severe and potentially deadlier.

In response, pharmaceutical companies, university researchers and the federal government have been rushing to develop a vaccine. In addition to the official government effort led by the National Institutes of Health, several drugmakers are also scrambling to develop a vaccine that can be tested in humans in the coming months. But even under the rosiest of projections, one won't be ready for more than a year, government officials say.

"I'm cautiously optimistic that we will get a vaccine," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's director for infectious diseases, said in an interview this week. "The thing that's sobering is that it's not a vaccine we're going to have next month, so we're going to have to tough it out through this evolution."


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## pbehn (Mar 6, 2020)

British supermarkets are running short of pasta and toilet rolls, no one knows why. Yorkshire has re classified the risk level from "you'll need your big coat" to "put the kettle on"

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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2020)

pbehn said:


> British supermarkets are running short of pasta and toilet rolls, no one knows why. ...



I do. They're making one of these recipes: The 10 best recipes for pasta with toilet paper

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## pbehn (Mar 6, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I do. They're making one of these recipes: The 10 best recipes for pasta with toilet paper


I am sure that is what Alan Turing foresaw as the ultimate use of computers.

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## gumbyk (Mar 6, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I do. They're making one of these recipes: The 10 best recipes for pasta with toilet paper


Well, that's solved the problem of what to have for dinner tonight!

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## Sid327 (Mar 7, 2020)



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## michael rauls (Mar 7, 2020)

Sister in law went to costco today and said she couldn't get cooking oil or toilet paper because they were out. When she asked the clerk why they seemed to be out of so many things he said everyone is stocking up because of the carona virus.
Good grief, this is getting ridiculous. Even if one believes this is something to be concerned about the idea of stocking a years supply of cooking oil and toilet paper so they can quarantine themselves away for months and months apparently is a little over the top imho.
At this point I'm becoming much more concerned about a toilet paper shortage than anything else.


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## Glider (Mar 7, 2020)

I don't understand the run on toilet paper. You are going to use soap and cleaning materials more than normal, but toilet paper? This morning there was an elderly couple who had 36 rolls of toilet paper in the trolly and were discussing if they should buy another 18 roll pack. I admit to thinking just how long does it take two people to get through 36 rolls, quickly followed by another thought thinking, do I really want to know the answer.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 7, 2020)

They are stocking up sp they don’t have to leave the house. If you have enough of everything, toilet paper included, you don’t have to go to the store.

Forget about the Corona Virus for a minute, and just look at it objectively. Supermarkets are cesspools of germs and crud. How many people do you see on any given day walking around while shopping for groceries and they are coughing and sneezing, and wiping the snotty noses with their hand, arm or sleeve? Then they are touching the cart and groceries, looking at them and putting it back on the shelf.

Just go to your average walmart on any given day (I loathe that place and avoid it like plague, for so many reasons),

Its not about the toilet paper, its about not having to go to the store.

Whats the big deal about 36 rolls? We buy our toilet paper at Costco and buy double that many all the time. Why, because it does not expire. It sits in the storage pantry, and it lasts for a long time. It runs out? We buy another 72 pack at costco.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 7, 2020)

Sid327 said:


>




Conspiracy theories only add to the hysteria. If any of this was true the Chinese government would be trying to nuke the west by now. I saw one idiot post a theory that the Chinese started this to end the protests in Hong Kong, If you look at a map, Hong Kong and Wuhan are 500 miles from each other.

Please keep this stuff at a minimum, as stated earlier I will shut this thread down if it gets out of hand.

file:///C:/Users/JMOR1/Downloads/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

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## Zipper730 (Mar 7, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Conspiracy theories only add to the hysteria. If any of this was true the Chinese government would be trying to nuke the west by now. I saw one idiot post a theory that the Chinese started this to end the protests in Hong Kong, If you look at a map, Hong Kong and Wuhan are 500 miles from each other.


I actually was going to say something myself, but decided not to (I figured the thread would be shut down, so I didn't want to draw attention to something that'd do it).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 7, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I actually was going to say something myself, but decided not to (I figured the thread would be shut down, so I didn't want to draw attention to something that'd do it).



Wise choice tin foil hat boy...

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## Zipper730 (Mar 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Wise choice tin foil hat boy...


I wasn't going to support what he was saying. Since I agreed to not make it political, I was going to say something that I'd figure wouldn't go over well. So I figured, well -- nobody's reacted yet, maybe nobody will even see the thread...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 7, 2020)

We got a handle on it Zipper.


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## mikewint (Mar 7, 2020)



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## tyrodtom (Mar 7, 2020)

Maybe they're planning on using toilet paper instead of Kleenex, if they get snotty ??

Or for about any thing else you can substitute something else, but what can you substitute for toilet paper that won't ruin your sewer system ?

On a lighter note, anybody remember the old Army demonstration on how to use only one sheet of toilet paper at a time ?

I just know somebody is come back with a post that you can use corn cobs as substitutes for toilet paper.

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## fubar57 (Mar 7, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 7, 2020)

First confirmed case here in St. Louis. 3 more waiting on the results. Let the unnecessary panic begin.


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## michael rauls (Mar 7, 2020)

Saw on the news today that people were getting in literal fist fights over toilet paper at a local Costco.......... Good grief!
Of course this is California so there's that.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 7, 2020)

I was supposed to fly today but some nasty winds kicked up so I decided to pick up some groceries. TP was on my list. There was a Walmart close to where I was at so I went there. On one asile the TP was cleaned out but on another asile it looks like they restocked. I can't believe this unbelievable stupidity!!!!


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## Sid327 (Mar 8, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Conspiracy theories only add to the hysteria. If any of this was true the Chinese government would be trying to nuke the west by now. I saw one idiot post a theory that the Chinese started this to end the protests in Hong Kong, If you look at a map, Hong Kong and Wuhan are 500 miles from each other.
> 
> Please keep this stuff at a minimum, as stated earlier I will shut this thread down if it gets out of hand.
> 
> file:///C:/Users/JMOR1/Downloads/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf



It's on YT for everyone to see.
I don't agree with it; but felt the forum people might want to see......don't assume I posted it because I support the theory.
Remove the post if it's contentious.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 8, 2020)

tyrodtom said:


> I just know somebody is come back with a post that you can use corn cobs as substitutes for toilet paper.


When my poverty stricken school teacher parents moved into a several years abandoned farmhouse with no indoor plumbing in 1950, the outhouse was well stocked with corncobs mounted on sticks. Quite the luxury in latrineland. Made a deep impression on my three year old mind.
Cheers,
Wes


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 8, 2020)

Sid327 said:


> It's on YT for everyone to see.
> I don't agree with it; but felt the forum people might want to see......don't assume I posted it because I support the theory.
> Remove the post if it's contentious.


Remember the line from Incense and Peppermints:
"Yardstick for lunatics; one point of view."?
Thanks for the yardstick, Sid!
The depths of depravity are greater than I would have thought.


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## Marcel (Mar 8, 2020)

hmm Italy is closing down. Hopefully other countries don’t follow. I have a trip planned with my son to London at the end of April. Would unfortunate if the museums were closed when we are there.


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## fubar57 (Mar 8, 2020)



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## stona (Mar 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> hmm Italy is closing down. Hopefully other countries don’t follow. I have a trip planned with my son to London at the end of April. Would unfortunate if the museums were closed when we are there.



You can follow the current situation in the UK here.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): latest information and advice

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, but I do think that as a rue the UK authorities are less likely to be prone to knee jerk reactions than some places. It really depend how the situation develops. I'm off to Cosford next Sunday and am fully expecting to do so.


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## pbehn (Mar 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> hmm Italy is closing down. Hopefully other countries don’t follow. I have a trip planned with my son to London at the end of April. Would unfortunate if the museums were closed when we are there.


So far the British response seems to be a little different to others. The focus is on delay and management of the spread, hope it goes well.


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## rochie (Mar 8, 2020)

Was at a conference last week for all the Head Chefs in our hotel group.

Spent an hour on Coronavirus effect on our supply chain and how ot might effect guest numbers, pretty worrying business wise


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 8, 2020)

Sid327 said:


> It's on YT for everyone to see.
> I don't agree with it; but felt the forum people might want to see......don't assume I posted it because I support the theory.
> Remove the post if it's contentious.


Fair enough... It will stay for now, glad you clarified.


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## michael rauls (Mar 8, 2020)

Heard some maner of financial expert on the radio yesterday say he thought more people in poor countries might die from the the worldwide over reaction than the virus itself due to economic effects. I.e. in the poorest countries when the economy tanks, people starve. 
Hard to even guess if this guy is right, whether the numbers could be more or less or about equal but it will for sure happen to some degree and that is most unfortunate.

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## mikewint (Mar 8, 2020)

Chris, I've only heard a singlr case confirmed in MO

St. Louis Public Radio KWMU -
A 22-year-old St. Louis County woman who was studying in Italy is now presumed to be the state’s first confirmed case of COVID-19, the disease spread by the new coronavirus.
Gov. Mike Parson and other officials announced late Saturday that the woman is in isolation at home with members of her family, who also have been in isolation.

Mercy Hospital St. Louis discharged the patient Saturday because she was not sick enough to be hospitalized. The self-quarantine will last 14 days after the patient no longer has symptoms.
St. Louis County Executive Sam Page said the woman will not be supervised. “What we found is that everyone is very cooperative. They understand the risk that they put others to,” he said.
Page urged people to “keep things in perspective,” adding that it is not a time to panic.

Health officials expect the woman, who attends an out-of-state college, to begin improving immediately.
Local health officials are identifying people who the woman came in contact with to monitor any symptoms they may have and try to contain the spread of the virus, state officials said.
A test analyzed by the Missouri State Public Health Laboratory has been sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials said. It could take up to five days for the CDC to confirm the case.

“I am confident in the work of the Department of Health and Senior Services and the St. Louis County Public Health Department and know that they will do what they can to protect the health and safety of Missouri communities,” Parson said.

He held a press conference in Clayton with local officials to announce the case.
There have been five confirmed cases in Illinois, all in the Chicago area. State and local health officials are monitoring its spread and are prepared to quarantine those who test positive.
The Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services has tested 26 people for COVID-19 including the St. Louis County woman. Three other tests are in progress.
Randall Williams, director of the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, said the travel-acquired case is what state health officials have been expecting.


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## stona (Mar 8, 2020)

How many people have been tested in the US?

There are certainly many people exhibiting mild symptoms who are infected, but unless tested will not be identified.

In the UK well over 25,000 have been tested. The equivalent number for the US, given the different populations, would be about 125,000. I can't even find a figure for the US, I just find reports on the test kits that were useless.


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## mikewint (Mar 8, 2020)

Not exactly the Army film but some of you may remember....


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## mikewint (Mar 8, 2020)

Posted by the Atlantic: Updated at 4:10 p.m. E.T. on March 7, 2020.

It’s one of the most urgent questions in the United States right now: How many people have actually been tested for the coronavirus?

This number would give a sense of how widespread the disease is, and how forceful a response to it the United States is mustering. But for days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has refused to publish such a count, despite public anxiety and criticism from Congress. On Monday, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, estimated that “by the end of this week, close to a million tests will be able to be performed” in the United States. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would be available this week.
But the number of tests performed across the country has fallen far short of those projections, despite extraordinarily high demand, The Atlantic has found.

Read: You’re likely to get the coronavirus

“The CDC got this right with H1N1 and Zika, and produced huge quantities of test kits that went around the country,” Thomas Frieden, the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017, told us. “I don’t know what went wrong this time.”

Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

To arrive at our estimate, we contacted the public-health departments of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We gathered data on websites, and we corresponded with dozens of state officials. All 50 states and D.C. have made some information available, though the quality and timeliness of the data varied widely. Some states have only committed to releasing their numbers once or three times a week. Most are focused on the number of confirmed cases; only a few have publicized the number of people they are capable of testing.

Read: The official coronavirus numbers are wrong, and everyone knows it

The Atlantic’s numbers reflect the best available portrait of the country’s testing capacity as of early this morning. These numbers provide an accurate baseline, but they are incomplete. Scattered on state websites, the data available are not useful to citizens or political leaders. State-based tallies lack the reliability of the CDC’s traditional—but now abandoned—method of reporting. Several states—including New Jersey, Texas, and Louisiana—have not shared on their official website the number of coronavirus tests they have conducted overall, meaning their number of positive results lacks crucial context. Louisiana’s governor has conducted press conferences noting the overall number of tests (5) and positive results (0).*

The net effect of these choices is that the country’s true capacity for testing has not been made clear to its residents. This level of obfuscation is unexpected in the United States, which has long been a global leader in public-health transparency.

The figures we gathered suggest that the American response to the coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19, has been shockingly sluggish, especially compared with that of other developed countries. The CDC confirmed eight days ago that the virus was in community transmission in the United States—that it was infecting Americans who had neither traveled abroad nor were in contact with others who had. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far tested 18,083 people for the virus.

Normally, the job of gathering these types of data in the U.S. would be left to epidemiologists at the CDC. The agency regularly collects and publishes positive and negative test results for several pathogens, including multiple types of the seasonal flu. But earlier this week, the agency announced that it would stop publishing negative results for the coronavirus, an extraordinary step that essentially keeps Americans from knowing how many people have been tested overall.

Read: What you can do right now about the coronavirus

“With more and more testing done at states, these numbers would not be representative of the testing being done nationally,” Nancy Messonnier, the chief CDC official for respiratory diseases, said at the time. “States are reporting results quickly, and in the event of a discrepancy between CDC and state case counts, the state case counts should always be considered more up to date.”


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Chris, I've only heard a singlr case confirmed in MO
> 
> St. Louis Public Radio KWMU -
> A 22-year-old St. Louis County woman who was studying in Italy is now presumed to be the state’s first confirmed case of COVID-19, the disease spread by the new coronavirus.
> ...



Mike isn’t that what I said? *The first confirmed case.*

I live here Mike. I live outside of Saint Louis. Hense why I said the *first confirmed case.* More than 20 have been tested in area hospitals. 17 have come back negative, 1 has come back positive, and 3 are possible and awaiting results.

*You just posted a link telling ne what I already know, and what I said myself. What I see on the local news.*


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## mikewint (Mar 8, 2020)

Es tut mir leid! Just thought I'd expand upon your statement and I had not heard of the others being tested. Living just South of you MO development concern be personally


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Es tut mir leid! Just thought I'd expand upon your statement and I had not heard of the others being tested. Living just South of you MO development concern be personally



Nothing to apologize for. You are good.

You just come across sometimes like you are trying to teach people things they don’t need to be taught about, when you copy and paste these lengthy responses to them.

Like when you tried to explain airspeed and groundspeed to me. Or when you tried to teach Marcel, who happens to be a microbiologist, about how viruses work.

Try not quoting their post when you do that.

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## mikewint (Mar 8, 2020)

Chris, Thanks for the second post but to reclarify I thought that I had cleared up that air/ground speed thingy. Though this is an aircraft forum lots of us are non-pilots and have not come within shouting distance of your experience and I am well aware of that expertise so that I would direct that towards you is not within the realm of even slightly possible. There were several posts that seemed to me to indicate confusion and so I thought that as a non-airplane guy I could use a non-airplane analogy to elucidate the concept. I thought that I had clearly stated unequivocally that it was not directed even in your general direction.
As to Marcel he had asked me if I was aware that corona was an RNA-type virus. That was in response to my posting mentioning DNA. I did not make clear in that post that I was quoting from an article in the Journal of Virology published by a Chinese researcher. The confusion arose, I suspect, when the article written in Chinese (Mandarin?) was translated into English for the article. I should have made clearer that Those were not my words. I suspect that the researcher had probably read a general term like "Nucleic Acid" which came across as DNA to him. Personally, at the time I was not aware that Covid-19 was RNA based though I suspected that it would follow suit along with both SARS and MERS. The poikilothermic/homothermic passage was also up for grabs though I thought it unlikely. Viruses do strange things moving through species, SARS had passed into Civits and MERS into Camels of all critters 
I will try to be more specific in the future

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## Zipper730 (Mar 9, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Heard some maner of financial expert on the radio yesterday say he thought more people in poor countries might die from the the worldwide over reaction than the virus itself due to economic effects. I.e. in the poorest countries when the economy tanks, people starve.


I agree, the overreaction to this is overkill.


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## Elmas (Mar 9, 2020)

In Italy, nowadays, if you heard a burglar breaking into your house all you have to do is to sneeze.
But not more than once, otherwise an Italian Judge could charge you for an abuse of an excess of legitimate defence.

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## Marcel (Mar 9, 2020)

Here, I only have to cough if I want to have 2 weeks off


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## mikewint (Mar 9, 2020)

Or find a hole in your level A PPE AFTER work


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## ARTESH (Mar 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Here, I only have to cough if I want to have 2 weeks off


Same here!!! !!! !!! !!! !!! ???


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## ARTESH (Mar 9, 2020)

I have sent all my friends in my own Workshop to their home towns! Now they are with their families! I hope to see them again!

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## Marcel (Mar 10, 2020)

Covid19 spreads like an Australian bushfire here. My work informed me that I should work from home.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2020)

Ok, I take it back. I don’t get the toilet paper thing. I get buying more than usual, and I get stocking up on food. But why buy a thosand rolls of toilet paper? I just watched a couple load en entire Jeep from front to back with rolls of toilet paper. I think this coronavirus thing is affecting peoples brains.

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## ARTESH (Mar 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok, I take it back. I don’t get the toilet paper thing. I get buying more than usual, and I get stocking up on food. But why buy a thosand rolls of toilet paper? I just watched a couple load en entire Jeep from front to back with rolls of toilet paper. I think this coronavirus thing is affecting peoples brains.


عقل سالم تو بدن سالمه !!!

Literal translation:

Healthy wisdom is in healthy body!!!

Anyway, I'm not shocked with this!!!


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## mikewint (Mar 10, 2020)

Wait until this pandemic really gets going and they start telling people to stay home. That couple will be selling that TP for $1 = $2 per roll. COVID is not even in Arkansas yet but today 3/10 our Walmart was sold out of Hand Sanitizer, and vinyl gloves. ANY kind of filter mask has been LONG gone from all stores here including hardware and Home Improvement stores. Walmart still had TP but maybe 1/4 of what they usually carry out on the shelves.
No runs on canned good YET! Shelves were fully stocked.
Very few people were wearing masks though Walmart does have special crews wiping down the check-out isles and key pads with sanitizer.
P95 and N95 masks/respirators are still available on Ebay but $20 per mask is a real buy and most are $30 or more.


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## pbehn (Mar 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok, I take it back. I don’t get the toilet paper thing. I get buying more than usual, and I get stocking up on food. But why buy a thosand rolls of toilet paper? I just watched a couple load en entire Jeep from front to back with rolls of toilet paper. I think this coronavirus thing is affecting peoples brains.


Propper prepping requires enough toilet rolls to keep a signal bonfire visible at 20 miles for a week.

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## pbehn (Mar 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok, I take it back. I don’t get the toilet paper thing. I get buying more than usual, and I get stocking up on food. But why buy a thosand rolls of toilet paper? I just watched a couple load en entire Jeep from front to back with rolls of toilet paper. I think this coronavirus thing is affecting peoples brains.


Statistics are now available in our age of computerized stock taking. In Salisbury sales of toilet rolls are 11.5 times higher than the normal while many areas have no change at all including some cities. It is a localised madness which no one can explain


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## nuuumannn (Mar 10, 2020)

The silver lining from all this fear-mongering is that the cost of petrol and overseas travel from here has gone down. Yusss!

On the subject of media overreaction, I work with a Russian, who is getting excited and claiming we should halt international travel altogether, only because that is what Russian State media is saying. I told him I drove past a Chinese restaurant on the way to work and asked if he was ok with working in proximity to me...


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## N4521U (Mar 11, 2020)

Are there Evergreen pasta recipes anywhere?
Daughter in law posted a picture of SF 6.30pm rush hour, one car on the road.
Cheap gas, to nowhere.
Japanese NHK seems to be keeping their people informed.
Everybody else doesn't want to create panic,
but That is what lack of information Does!
And now I can't find Any toilet paper........ you bastards!

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## Wayne Little (Mar 11, 2020)

I hear Ya Bill......morons clearing the shelves down here......


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## N4521U (Mar 11, 2020)

It's called Herding,
one stupid cow from the herd does it,
and they all follow over the cliff into the abyss..

We can't run out because of the Importation of the stuff!!!!!!
It's all made in SA!
For goodness sake.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 11, 2020)

N4521U said:


> It's called Herding,
> one stupid cow from the herd does it,
> and they all follow over the cliff into the abyss..


In a crisis of panic and paralysis, any action becomes "leadership".


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## mikewint (Mar 11, 2020)

N4521U said:


> And now I can't find Any toilet paper........



Bill, ME to your rescue!!!! I made an offer in YOUR name....no thanks necessary...just get the credit card warmed up

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## mikewint (Mar 11, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Are there Evergreen pasta recipes anywhere?


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## fubar57 (Mar 11, 2020)



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## stona (Mar 11, 2020)

I've got a few tins of baked beans in the cupboard, and at least one pack of wine gums...bring on the apocalypse.

If I run out of loo roll I'll have to use the bidet which currently is only used for the entertainment of grandchildren, they can reach the taps. Otherwise I'll have to wash my arse with the incredibly expensive mixer tap/shower thingy that the Fuhrerin ordered fitted to the bathtub, something else that's never used because it's fifteen feet from a proper shower!

As far as I know diarrhoea is not a symptom of this virus, so why loo roll? I was a bit loose this morning, but that was probably the Jalfrezi I had from the Mughal last night


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## gumbyk (Mar 11, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Bill, ME to your rescue!!!! I made an offer in YOUR name....no thanks necessary...just get the credit card warmed up
> 
> View attachment 572971


I'm just worries htat someone thinks 36 rolls is a lifetime supply!

How do you Americans use the stuff? quarter of a square at a time?!

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 11, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm just worries htat someone thinks 36 rolls is a lifetime supply!
> 
> How do you Americans use the stuff? quarter of a square at a time?!


36 rolls is a little generous given current revised life expectancy. Don't worry, there'll be plenty left to bequeath to your heirs! Damned if I'll go out and buy extra for their benefit.

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## mikewint (Mar 11, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm just worries htat someone thinks 36 rolls is a lifetime supply!


Don't forget that there are 1000 sheets per roll so at one WHOLE sheet per day that comes to 36,000 DAYs worth ot TP or 98.6 YEARS

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## Elmas (Mar 11, 2020)

Very strange…

In Italy it is common language to say that when you are particularly frightened the first thing you have do is to go to the loo or in another convenient place as soon as possible before you got it done in the pants but, considering the situation of the Co-vid19, here in Italy no shortages of toilet paper can be experienced in the supermarkets of the whole Nation.

Or that we are particularly brave, or particularly reckless, or thoughtless… but the regular cleaning of some anatomical parts seems to go as usual.

Fortunately, in every Italian house, even the most poor, the furniture of the loo is quite complete.






I miss it a lot in all my travels abroad, expecially in the Anglo-Saxon countries.

I've never been to U.S so I'm wondering how a loo is made there.

This way?

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## Airframes (Mar 11, 2020)

Great Scott !
You've all got indoor toilets ??!!
And you don't have to save a cut up newspapers ??!!
Well I never !!!!


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## N4521U (Mar 11, 2020)

Is that great Scott, as in Scott Tissue?


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 11, 2020)

Well, in the South we use pine cones. It's why we're so grumpy.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 11, 2020)

Well! The humor has gone viral!
Thanks everybody for the info.
Conclusion: Don't trust what any government or "main stream media" source says. That's about my entire set of sources.
Conclusion: This COVID has a lethality rate close to the 1918 Influenza Epidemic mis-named Spanish Flu. Different focus of vulnerability, but about the same rate. SARS and MERS had much higher lethality.
Conclusion: Now is a good time to hibernate until this blows over.


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## The Basket (Mar 11, 2020)

Problem is the source of news is Media and Politicians and I believe neither.

So I have no clue what's happening or why.

But if the economy tanks and the population is decimated then at least we can now live in a Mad Max style dystopian future. Best I could ever hope for. 

I will wear furs and a skull on my head and call myself Knocker.

So I am sorted.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 11, 2020)

NBA just cancelled suspended the rest of their season. Player tested positive.

EDITED with strike-throughs. Story changed


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## michael rauls (Mar 12, 2020)

I just don't get the toilet paper hoarding. I understand the masks, bleach, and the hand sanitizer.......but toilet paper?
In all seriousness it looks like it has a fatality rate of about .25 to.50% The media keeps quoting 2% but thats of known cases that tested positive. 80% of cases are very mild so they are never tested as most people will never know they have anything more than a cold or flu. So ive heard several epidemiologists say anyway. When the media was reporting that there were 200 cases and 6 fatalities last week here in the US some of said epidemiologists were saying that fairly dependable models of how things this contagious spread there were almost certainly at least 9000 cases here already. Its just that most of those cases had no reason to believe that they had anything more than the flu or a cold so never got tested.
So the actual fatality rate is probably somewhat greater than most( but not all) flus but not appreciably so......and it is more contagious so it is something to be concerned about but good heavens.....people are losing their minds.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 12, 2020)

It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" (swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, West Nile virus, Ebola, et al) did not have rampant social media and a rabid media pouring gasoline on the flames...


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)



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## The Basket (Mar 12, 2020)

So travel to USA now stopped? 

Ok. 

Now I'm scared.

I am officially hitting the panic button.


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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

The Basket said:


> So travel to USA now stopped?
> 
> Ok.
> 
> ...


Except for you. Somehow the Americans in their infinite wisdom think they should still allow you crazy bunch. No idea where they got that idea from...


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## pbehn (Mar 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Except for you. Somehow the Americans in their infinite wisdom think they should still allow you crazy bunch. No idea where they got that idea from...


Nothing makes much sense, maybe a blue passport gives protection? At time of writing Englands friendly football match with Denmark is cancelled but Englands friendly with Italy will go ahead, obviously without any Italians?


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## Shinpachi (Mar 12, 2020)

In case of China, fatality rate seems to have changed according to the age in the range of 0 to 15%.

Red: fatality rate by the age
Black: patients number as well.





Source: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE_g_StinjI

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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

Oh no, McLaren is not going to race. Now the F1 season is really going to pot. I was so looking forward to it


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## Zipper730 (Mar 12, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" (swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, West Nile virus, Ebola, et al) did not have rampant social media and a rabid media pouring gasoline on the flames...


Largely this is due to conflicting information presented by official sources. The panicked responses on social media seem to mirror the conflicting information.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Oh no, McLaren is not going to race. Now the F1 season is really going to pot. I was so looking forward to it



Ferrari probably planted the infected guy on the team.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 12, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Largely this is due to conflicting information presented by official sources. The panicked responses on social media seem to mirror the conflicting information.


Yeah, but I don't get it - regular Flu strains kill roughly half a million people worldwide every year, yet I don't see anyone losing their shit over that issue...

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

The panic may be stemming from the medical community saying they have no cure or preventative measures in place yet. Yesterday, in the UK I believe, they were looking for healthy volunteers to be injected with a lesser strain of Corona to do some vaccine tests


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## GrauGeist (Mar 12, 2020)

We have one case here in Shasta County, 56 year old guy, he's doing ok and now at home recuperating.
Maybe they should look at recovered people for a vaccine base?


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

Open if you have a sense of humour

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 12, 2020)

News reporters have become carnival barkers. Everything has become sensationalized.
Just use common sense and wash your hands.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 12, 2020)

<political element warning>
"It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" (swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, West Nile virus, Ebola, et al) did not have rampant social media and a rabid media pouring gasoline on the flames... "

Nations are working against the plague.
The Media is working for different objectives.

Also: Two of the hardest-hit nations (China, Iran) cannot be trusted to count the days in a week, let alone COVID deaths. My cynicism wonders how many political killings are blamed on the virus as a handy "camo of opportunity". For China, Double Lung Transplant Donors may be counted as COVID deaths.

</political element warning>

This plague does merit extra attention for the high communicability and elevated lethality.
I don't have numbers for the former, but the latter is about 30 times the "normal common influenza" (3% vs .1%).

Does anybody have numbers on the pre-symptom contagion window? How long can I pass this to my friends, neighbors, and everybody at WalMart before I show symptoms?


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Open if you have a sense of humour


Spray & Pray V2.0


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## ARTESH (Mar 12, 2020)

Wurger
: Ive heard about first victim of Covid-19 in Poland! is it right???


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## michael rauls (Mar 12, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> <political element warning>
> "It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" (swine flu, bird flu, mad cow disease, West Nile virus, Ebola, et al) did not have rampant social media and a rabid media pouring gasoline on the flames... "
> 
> Nations are working against the plague.
> ...


Im certainly no expert so take with grain of salt but I don't think the fatality rate is anywhere near 2 or 3%. That number is of known tested cases but the vast majority of cases, like 80%, are mild and never get tested. A little division and you get something less than .50%.
That cruise ship had about 600 inflected people and two of them died, which would iindeed be about 3% but cruise ship clientele is much, much older than society as a whole. If you look at the incidence curve from young to old and asume the average age on the ship was 75 then you again get at about .50 %.
Not trying to downplay it. It is indeed worthy of concern. Just trying to take a fact based( as best I know them) look at this.
If I were around 70 or older with underlying chronic health concerns I would probably not be going out in public anymore than necessary( but that would be warranted with any bad flu strain), just to be on the safe side but the response overall seems to me to be a bit overdone to me.

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## Wurger (Mar 12, 2020)

ARTESH said:


> Wurger
> : Ive heard about first victim of Covid-19 in Poland! is it right???



Yep.. 1 person died and other 50s are in hospitals at the moment ...


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## mikewint (Mar 12, 2020)

Arkansas now has one official case of Corona in Pine Bluff a city of +42,000 which is located down in south central Arkansas about +250 miles from me. Test results are still pending but they seem pretty positive that it is positive and the Gov declared a Public Health Emergency for the state. The infected person had traveled out of the state but that all they are saying for now

Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy has stated "In SARS patients, viral shedding peaked about seven to 10 days into the illness, as the infection spread from the upper respiratory tract into deep lung tissue. In seven patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, "*peak concentrations were reached before Day 5 and were more than 1,000 times higher*" than those seen in SARS patients", the authors wrote.

While the overall mortality rate may be relatively low the mortality rate rises dramatically in the older population. According to the US Census there are 34,991,753 people in the US age 65 or older. The death rate in the elderly varies with age but is 8% to 15%. So that mean that on average 2,799,340 to 5,248,763 fatalities in the US. Assuming that many of these will seek medical treatment before dying the medical facilities will crash long before the peak is reached. In addition consider all those who need medical attention for non-COVID reasons AND those under 65 with COVID who develop the serious form who then need hospital care
From: A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on* 72,314* *confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases* of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases​*80+ years old*
*14.9%*​*70-79 years old*
*8.0%*​*60-69 years old*
*3.6%*​*50-59 years old*
*1.3%*​*40-49 years old*
*0.4%*​*30-39 years old*
*0.2%*​*20-29 years old*
*0.2%*​*10-19 years old*
*0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities*​


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## pbehn (Mar 12, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Yeah, but I don't get it - regular Flu strains kill roughly half a million people worldwide every year, yet I don't see anyone losing their shit over that issue...


It is because it is new to everyone. Like when people from the west met indigenous tribes in the Americas and killed half of them by giving them the flu and other diseases.


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## jmcalli2 (Mar 12, 2020)

For as up-to-the-minute data as there is, got to the Johns- Hopkins maintained website; Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Currently, 127,000+ or 0.0017% of the world's population has been confirmed as infected with COVID-19.
Outside of China/Italy/Iran there have been 285 deaths. There have been 4,700+ total deaths world wide including China/Italy/Iran.
68,000+ have recovered.
The virus seems to have a 2 week incubation period.
The highest risk for dying is for older patients and those with pre-existing underlying medical problems.

For perspective, the CDC says this season there have been at least 34 million influenza illnesses, 350,000+ hospitalizations and 20,000+ deaths from flu.
Only about 40% of the population gets the flu vaccine. 
Follow influenza statistics here; Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

Following this advice can stop the spread of influenza, COVID-19, and many other diseases; https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/freeresources/updated/everyday-preventive-actions-8.5x11.pdf

Be prudent and choose perspective over panic. Bad decisions spring from panic.

Take the above for what it is worth. I've been a Respiratory Therapist since 1984, spent 5 years as ICU coordinator at a Level 1 Trauma Center, and have been involved in various research trials such as pulmonary surfactant therapy, high frequency jet ventilation, high frequency oscillation ventilation, and partial liquid ventilation to name a few. I currently work in healthcare accreditation.


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## michael rauls (Mar 12, 2020)

Just realized my cruz ship counculation involved a misplaced decimal point. The actual fatality rate on that ship was only .30% not 3%.

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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

We’ve got the first confirmed corona infection here in Dordrecht. Here at the moment mortality seems to be around 1% in the Netherlands. In Italy it looks much worse. More than 1000 fatalities already.

But the biggest problem and why governments take drastic action is that the medical care cannot handle the flow of patients. That’s what is happening now in Italy. The tactic is here now to delay the spreading so we won’t get a peak, but a gradual rise in infections. This way the hospitals can better handle the flow and less patients will have to die.

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## The Basket (Mar 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Except for you. Somehow the Americans in their infinite wisdom think they should still allow you crazy bunch. No idea where they got that idea from...


The British passport is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural.

I apologize as I read the headlines and it clearly stated Europeans, Which I believed I was once. But no more.

Brexit saves the day.


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## gumbyk (Mar 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We’ve got the first confirmed corona infection here in Dordrecht. Here at the moment mortality seems to be around 1% in the Netherlands. In Italy it looks much worse. More than 1000 fatalities already.
> 
> But the biggest problem and why governments take drastic action is that the medical care cannot handle the flow of patients. That’s what is happening now in Italy. The tactic is here now to delay the spreading so we won’t get a peak, but a gradual rise in infections. This way the hospitals can better handle the flow and less patients will have to die.


I was just about to post something along htose lines. Doctors in Italy aer already having to decide who to treat and who not to...

Italians On Reddit Are Describing What It's Like To Live Under The Coronavirus Lockdown


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## The Basket (Mar 12, 2020)

Under the usual nuclear war scenario, the elderly are left to die and the young'uns get the Medicare.

Have to back a winning horse.

So it begins.


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

OK...this has just gotten serious. The NHL has postponed the rest of the season; now I have to talk to the wife

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> OK...this has just gotten serious. The NHL has postponed the rest of the season; now I have to talk to the wife


You think she can change the situation?

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 12, 2020)

The Basket said:


> Under the usual nuclear war scenario, the elderly are left to die and the young'uns get the Medicare.
> 
> Have to back a winning horse.


I've paid my dues and lived my life. Treat the next guy and leave me be. I'm ready when you are, Lord.

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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I've paid my dues and lived my life. I'm ready when you are, Lord.


I’ve paid my dues,
Time after time

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I've paid my dues and lived my life. Treat the next guy and leave me be. I'm ready when you are, Lord.


As soon as my wife is cared for, to the last, I'm with you.


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## Glider (Mar 12, 2020)

I was informed at work today that as I am over 60 and diabetic should it get much worse that I am to work from home. I admit to having mixed views on that but at least people are looking ahead and not making knee jerk responses


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## Crimea_River (Mar 12, 2020)

The BC minister if health yesterday mentioned a 90+ year old man who was in the hospital until discharged yesterday where he is doing well. You think I could find a news bite on this? No way. Let's focus on panic, doom, and gloom.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> OK...this has just gotten serious. The NHL has postponed the rest of the season; now I have to talk to the wife



So everyone in the Pacific Division wins the division then.


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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

Glider said:


> I was informed at work today that as I am over 60 and diabetic should it get much worse that I am to work from home. I admit to having mixed views on that but at least people are looking ahead and not making knee jerk responses


I’ve been working from home the last 2 days. Must say I’m much more productive then at the office where there is always someone at my desk to ask for help.

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)



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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 12, 2020)

A comment on the 3% being inflated by comparing deaths to KNOWN infections: unknown flu infections (mild cases or stubborn old farts) will inflate the "regular" flu death ratio.

Fubar: I hope that's not a Corona in your hand!


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## Marcel (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 573089​


As I said, I’m much more productive.

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

I would love to be able to work from home..

​


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## rochie (Mar 12, 2020)

Yeah but can it make another chef cry just by shouting or deep frying their phone ?

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## jmcalli2 (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> ...and for some reason, certain people are panicking.
> 
> View attachment 571765
> 
> ​


For as up-to-the-minute data as there is, got to the Johns- Hopkins maintained website; Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Currently, 127,000+ or 0.0017% of the world's population has been confirmed as infected with COVID-19.
Outside of China/Italy/Iran there have been 285 deaths. There have been 4,700+ total deaths world wide including China/Italy/Iran.
68,000+ have recovered.
The virus seems to have a 2 week incubation period.
The highest risk for dying is for older patients and those with pre-existing underlying medical problems.

For perspective, the CDC says this season there have been at least 34 million influenza illnesses, 350,000+ hospitalizations and 20,000+ deaths from flu.
Only about 40% of the population gets the flu vaccine. 
Follow influenza statistics here; Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

Following this advice can stop the spread of influenza, COVID-19, and many other diseases; https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/freeresources/updated/everyday-preventive-actions-8.5x11.pdf

Be prudent and choose perspective over panic. Bad decisions spring from panic.

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## N4521U (Mar 12, 2020)

Hey, I'm closing in on 77 and you're giving me No Feckin chance at all!!!!!!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2020)

I found toilet paper!

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

The only thing we are short on is hand sanitizer, none in at least a 300km radius. This makes more sense than the toilet paper thang


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2020)

jmcalli2 said:


> For as up-to-the-minute data as there is, got to the Johns- Hopkins maintained website; Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
> 
> Currently, 127,000+ or 0.0017% of the world's population has been confirmed as infected with COVID-19.
> Outside of China/Italy/Iran there have been 285 deaths. There have been 4,700+ total deaths world wide including China/Italy/Iran.
> ...



The US numbers for the coronavirus are false and low due to poor testing. Take the state of Ohio for instance. They announced today thay believe the actual number of infected people in the state to be over 100,000.

Ohio Department of Health believes 100,000 Ohioans are carrying coronavirus

I still think there is no need to panic. Most will get through this just fine, but we Americans are in for a rude awaking with our piss poor health care system, and lack of paid sick time and vacation time. 40% of the US population cannot afford to call out sick. They don’t have sick benefits, or live paycheck to paycheck. These people will keep going to work, and keep spreading the virus. Washing hands only goes so far. If you do not limit your social contact, i.e., stay home and away from others you are not containing the virus.

It’s time to wake up and smell the coffee.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 12, 2020)

Australian GP cancelled.


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## jmcalli2 (Mar 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The US numbers for the coronavirus are false and low due to poor testing. Take the state of Ohio for instance. They announced today thay believe the actual number of infected people in the state to be over 100,000.
> 
> Ohio Department of Health believes 100,000 Ohioans are carrying coronavirus
> 
> ...



So, there are more infected; that means the disease is LESS likely to kill you.
Get a grip man!
Be prudent and understand the perspective.
Or, you could cower under your bed, shivering.
Your choice.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2020)

jmcalli2 said:


> So, there are more infected; that means the disease is LESS likely to kill you.
> Get a grip man!
> Be prudent and understand the perspective.
> Or, you could cower under your bed, shivering.
> Your choice.



lol

Get a grip? Cower under my bed? Didn’t I say we should not panic? Did I say I was panicking?

Learn to read and comprehend a post first, then comment. Capeesh?


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

LMAO!!!! He just said "...there is no need to panic...."

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

Sorry, cross posted with you Alder


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Sorry, cross posted with you Alder



No worries...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2020)

The point of my post went right over his head. It had nothing to do with fatality rates. It was about containment, and how we will have a problem with it.

But instead...

Wooosh!

And then he had to spout off like an internet tough guy.


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## gumbyk (Mar 12, 2020)

jmcalli2 said:


> So, there are more infected; that means the disease is LESS likely to kill you.
> Get a grip man!
> Be prudent and understand the perspective.
> Or, you could cower under your bed, shivering.
> Your choice.


It's not about how many people it kills... It's about overwhelming the medical facilities to the point that doctors have to decide who lives and who dies, which is what is happening in Italy. Those who are hospitalised have 2 weeks in ICU.

THIS is the difference between your personal risk, and the risk to the country, which is what the professionals are talking about.

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

Retired doctors being asked to come back https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/retired-doctors-in-bc-coming-back-to-work-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5495275


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## JAG88 (Mar 12, 2020)

Yes, it is very simple.

- It is highly contagious.
- Most cases are mild and often asymptomatic
- Preys on those already weakened by age or disease.
- Thereafter is a matter of how fast vulnerable people get infected versus the availability of respirator-equipped ICU beds in your area, because once those are close to full then the doctors have to begin triage, like in Italy.

Good times...


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## gumbyk (Mar 12, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Yes, it is very simple.
> 
> - It is highly contagious.
> - Most cases are mild and often asymptomatic
> ...


And the economic effects too. e.g. if it gets into our house, my wife's business will have to shut down, her employee will have to try working from home, which will be a lot less efficient. Then, if I shut down, there will be half a dozen other companies without support they need to have to keep their operating certificate.
People need to think about more than if it will kill them...

Although from what I hear, the USA don't have enough test kits, so we may never know the infection rate there.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 12, 2020)

J
 JAG88


The most obvious problems are

People who are elderly
People with certain health conditions
Cardiovascular disease
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Diabetes
Immunocompromised status

The fact that it poses to overwhelm the hospital system we have: We are not equipped for pandemics. I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.


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## gumbyk (Mar 12, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> J
> JAG88
> 
> I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.


People died - that's what we did...

Just think, if the ICU is full with Covid patients, what are you going to do with the 60 year old who has a heart attack?

There are a whole raft of flow-on effects that people like to ignore.


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## michael rauls (Mar 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> lol
> 
> Get a grip? Cower under my bed? Didn’t I say we should not panic? Did I say I was panicking?
> 
> Learn to read and comprehend a post first, then comment. Capeesh?


I think he was agreeing with you and his admonition was to the panicked masses.
That's the way it struck me anyway.


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

While the virus has hit Italy pretty hard, they also have a pretty high mortality rate with influenza as well...Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

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## JAG88 (Mar 12, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> And the economic effects too. e.g. if it gets into our house, my wife's business will have to shut down, her employee will have to try working from home, which will be a lot less efficient. Then, if I shut down, there will be half a dozen other companies without support they need to have to keep their operating certificate.
> People need to think about more than if it will kill them...
> 
> Although from what I hear, the USA don't have enough test kits, so we may never know the infection rate there.



Oh, that is a given, this will have a horrible cascade effect on the world economy, I just talked to a couple friends that hadnt been paying much attention to this since they already had their plate full with keeping business afloat, well... now they know they are going under.

You are well past test kits now, it is already spreading without control, it is what happened in Italy, they only tested people with symptoms and many people never have them, so it grows unchecked and unnoticed until it blows in your face.

Korea did make and use a lot of test kits and seems to have a grip on the situation, good for them. Same for Taiwan. That means they have a lot of cases (many mild) and low mortality rate, Italy had few tests so only tested the sick thus their mortality rate is higher as a percentage. It also seems the Italian population didnt give a damn about warnings and quarantine measures, people simply kept moving around... so now they are in lock down.


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## JAG88 (Mar 12, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> J
> JAG88
> I don't know what we did in the era of Smallpox, but we are not equipped for this stuff anymore.



People used lots of shovels... always good remembering this continent was taken from the prior owners thanks to this and other diseases. By accident and through "gifts".


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## michael rauls (Mar 12, 2020)

The much higher rate in Italy is perplexing and somewhat concerning. The only explanation I can think of for such a large discrepancy in fatality rates is a shortage of test kits( more so than other countries) which would mean that only the most serious cases( which would of course have a higher fatality rate) would be tested.
I don't have any evidence this is the case but its the only thing I can think of that makes sense.


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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2020)

M
 michael rauls
Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy? | Live Science

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## JAG88 (Mar 12, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> The much higher rate in Italy is perplexing and somewhat concerning. The only explanation I can think of for such a large discrepancy in fatality rates is a shortage of test kits( more so than other countries) which would mean that only the most serious cases( which would of course have a higher fatality rate) would be tested.
> I don't have any evidence this is the case but its the only thing I can think of that makes sense.



Cases in Southamerica are almost all of Italian origin, the Italians clearly didnt test extensively until they had a real problem in their hands and plenty of sick people moving around.


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## michael rauls (Mar 13, 2020)

One thing that is worrying me about this is the economic affects. Particularly so due to the overvaluation of the worlds stock and sovereign bond markets( more so than in 1929). One could argue, and many do, that the efficiencies of todays economy warrant a higher valuation and I would agree to a point but not this high imho. By many metrics we are in the most overvalued market ever and ever is a long time. This condition is with a few exceptions world wide. Also, exponential growth in dept, public and private, over the last decade is worrisome as well. 
If y'all have been paying attention to the markets you know it appears that the bubble has burst although central banks may ride to the rescue with additional monetary stimulus and perhaps outright asset purchases. Hard to predict how these things will shake out. If I could predict them I would be a multi millionaire but it does look like there is the potential for really bad economic outcome.
The thing that concerns me most about this is not monetary strictly speaking but the affect another Great Depression would have on people. If the worlwide economy collapses alot of people in first world countries will lose there homes, savings etc. and in the third world alot of people would starve. Its possible that the economic fall out from over reaction and shutting down entire economies will kill more people than the virus ever could have.
This is of course a worst case scenario but given market valuations and most first world countries having debt far in excess of GDP I don't think its too far out on the bottom of the bell curve of possibilities......unfortunately.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> People used lots of shovels... always good remembering this continent was taken from the prior owners thanks to this and other diseases. By accident and through "gifts".


We need to keep in mind that the "prior owners" were not "kind and gentle" to one another, either.

The only reason an invader (pick any continent and any time period) is successful, is because they have a tactical advantage, be it numerical superiority, tactical superiority or strategy.


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## Drucifer (Mar 13, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> J
> JAG88
> 
> 
> ...


Left out one - the idiots that get it and think it is nothing and continues to go everywhere.

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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

Drucifer said:


> Left out one - the idiots that get it and think it is nothing and continues to go everywhere.


... buying toilet paper it seems.


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## MiTasol (Mar 13, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Oh, that is a given, this will have a horrible cascade effect on the world economy, I just talked to a couple friends that hadnt been paying much attention to this since they already had their plate full with keeping business afloat, well... now they know they are going under.
> 
> You are well past test kits now, it is already spreading without control, it is what happened in Italy, they only tested people with symptoms and many people never have them, so it grows unchecked and unnoticed until it blows in your face.
> 
> Korea did make and use a lot of test kits and seems to have a grip on the situation, good for them. Same for Taiwan. That means they have a lot of cases (many mild) and low mortality rate, Italy had few tests so only tested the sick thus their mortality rate is higher as a percentage. It also seems the Italian population didnt give a damn about warnings and quarantine measures, people simply kept moving around... so now they are in lock down.




And here in Australia we have both Federal and State governments telling people they should attend things like the Grand Prix and the Royal Easter show right up until late this morning - and forcing schools that had closed because of infected students to reopen because QUOTE children only get a mild dose and it does not kill them ENDQUOTE

These morons forget that the infected child then goes home and hugs their parents and grandparents when will most likely now be infected.

*If brains were gasoline they would not have enough to start a cigarette lighter*

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## Elmas (Mar 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I found toilet paper!



Situation is improving.


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## rednev (Mar 13, 2020)

So who is going to the tokyo olympics ?


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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

Was at the mall this morning. Pasta and rice all sold out at 9am, half an hour after the shops opened. Also many people with bottles of water and toilet paper. Yup, even the so call Dutch people are starting to panic.


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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2020)



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## rochie (Mar 13, 2020)

maintenance guy at work is off with suspected Coronavirus, he is awaiting testing !


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)



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## JAG88 (Mar 13, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> We need to keep in mind that the "prior owners" were not "kind and gentle" to one another, either..



So? Who has been, ever?

.


> The only reason an invader (pick any continent and any time period) is successful, is because they have a tactical advantage, be it numerical superiority, tactical superiority or strategy.



No, we are talking virus here remember, and those new diseases killed at least half of the population, and on seeing that they "newcomers" who knew more about the diseases kept on using it against them.


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## JAG88 (Mar 13, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And here in Australia we have both Federal and State governments telling people they should attend things like the Grand Prix and the Royal Easter show right up until late this morning - and forcing schools that had closed because of infected students to reopen because QUOTE children only get a mild dose and it does not kill them ENDQUOTE
> 
> These morons forget that the infected child then goes home and hugs their parents and grandparents when will most likely now be infected.
> 
> *If brains were gasoline they would not have enough to start a cigarette lighter*



Milan authorities were saying as much until 2 days ago... "Milan doesnt stop!"... or some dumb thing to that purpose. Now they have closed down everything save for pharmacies and grocery stores.


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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2020)



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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> No, we are talking virus here remember, and those new diseases killed at least half of the population, and on seeing that they "newcomers" who knew more about the diseases kept on using it against them


Do you mean like when Cortez' army infected the Aztecs or Columbus' expedition infected the Taino?

Or was it more like the "newcomers" catapulting plague infested corpses over fortress walls in the old world or perhaps like the "prior owners" poisoning rival tribe's water supplies with dead animals?


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## JAG88 (Mar 13, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Do you mean like when Cortez' army infected the Aztecs or Columbus' expedition infected the Taino?
> 
> Or was it more like the "newcomers" catapulting plague infested corpses over fortress walls in the old world or perhaps like the "prior owners" poisoning rival tribe's water supplies with dead animals?



Exactly like all that.


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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2020)




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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

Lord of the RNA streng

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## Vincenzo (Mar 13, 2020)

Lethality of corona virus in Italy at 5 p.m. of today
deaths 1,266, sicks cumulative 17,660
lethality rate 7.17%

today first case reported in my town, died yesterday


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## Zipper730 (Mar 13, 2020)

fubar57


View attachment 573218


Agreed...


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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Lethality of corona virus in Italy at 5 p.m. of today
> deaths 1,266, sicks cumulative 17,660
> lethality rate 7,17%
> 
> today first case reported in my town, died yesterday


Yeah, your country seems to be hit out of proportion.


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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2020)

Stay safe Vincenzo

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## jmcalli2 (Mar 13, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Hey, I'm closing in on 77 and you're giving me No Feckin chance at all!!!!!!


I'm on your tail!

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 13, 2020)

jmcalli2 said:


> I'm on your tail!


And I'm in trail.

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## jmcalli2 (Mar 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> lol
> 
> Get a grip? Cower under my bed? Didn’t I say we should not panic? Did I say I was panicking?
> 
> Learn to read and comprehend a post first, then comment. Capeesh?




If I misread your post, I apologize. The "wake up and smell the coffee" line caught my eye.
My advice is to check every day or two on the websites and watch for trends over time and draw your own conclusions.

Right now it looks no where near as bad as H1N1 was in 2009-2010. But that could change.


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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

Yeah, I think if you already have health problems, you should be careful. If your health is good,m, it’ll probably another cold.


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## michaelmaltby (Mar 13, 2020)

I found this useful ...
:
The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days.
How can one know if he/she is infected?
By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the
lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late.
Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning.
Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If
you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort,
stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the
lungs, basically indicates no infection.
In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment
with clean air.
Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases:
Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry.
Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why?

Even if the
virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash
them down through your throat and into the stomach.
Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't
drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe
and into the lungs.
That's very dangerous.
Please send and share this with family and friends.
Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)

jmcalli2 said:


> If I misread your post, I apologize. The "wake up and smell the coffee" line caught my eye.
> My advice is to check every day or two on the websites and watch for trends over time and draw your own conclusions.
> 
> Right now it looks no where near as bad as H1N1 was in 2009-2010. But that could change.



You certainly did misread...

The wake up and smell the coffee comment was regarding our piss poor healthcare system. Sorry but it sucks. Who cares about death rates in the context of my post. People getting sick, and still going to work because they cannot afford our health care costs, or do not have paid sick benefits will hinder containment of the virus. Hopefully people wake up and smell the coffee. Most Americans think our shit doesn’t stink, and most think criticizing anything is un-American, but hopefully this wakes them up, so we can fix it before a real nasty one comes.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yeah, I think if you already have health problems, you should be careful. If your health is good,m, it’ll probably another cold.



I don’t disagree. But if you have it, you need to stay away. You might spread it to someone who does.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 13, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> I found this useful ...
> :
> The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days.
> How can one know if he/she is infected?



afaik this is a hoax


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## mikewint (Mar 13, 2020)

That history actually does repeat itself might actually be true - 1918

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## Marcel (Mar 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t disagree. But if you have it, you need to stay away. You might spread it to someone who does.


Yeah exactly.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> afaik this is a hoax



Yeah looks like a typical Facebook chain post.


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## Glider (Mar 13, 2020)

I sent a note to my brother to let him know that if things get worse over here I was going to be the first to be sent home to work. He called me today and said that he had been told to work from home but is on holiday this week. So he is staying there and this as he put it, is now his office.
Sometimes you can go off people, even brothers.

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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2020)

8 months left in this contract, could one of the Mods remove the last two post puleeze


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## Crimea_River (Mar 13, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> I found this useful ...
> :
> The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days.
> How can one know if he/she is infected?
> ...



As soon as I read "Spread the word - please share", to me that means "Delete - please ignore". No source, no credibility.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> As soon as I read "Spread the word - please share", to me that means "Delete - please ignore". No source, no credibility.



Dr. Facebook M.D.

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## pbehn (Mar 13, 2020)

Don't people think that after 3 months working from home someone may say "You don't need an office", or worse, "we don't need you?"

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## Zipper730 (Mar 13, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Don't people think that after 3 months working from home someone may say "You don't need an office", or worse, "we don't need you?"


I actually had considered that...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2020)



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## MiTasol (Mar 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Dr. Facebook M.D.


MD meaning Major Dickhead?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Dr. Facebook M.D.


And just a few months ago, all these facebook doctors were constitutional lawyers, too...

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

I remember when I had Facebook......for about 5 minutes


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## GrauGeist (Mar 14, 2020)

MySpace was better than Facebook, then they "improved" it...

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## michael rauls (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> I remember when I had Facebook......for about 5 minutes


Same here. Tried it out for a couple days but like so many things that are popular I just didn't get the appeal.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Same here. Tried it out for a couple days but like so many things that are popular I just didn't get the appeal.



I enjoy it because it allows me to keep up with my friends and family all over the world. It also helped tremendously when needing to get addresses of people as references for security clearances and what not.


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## michael rauls (Mar 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I enjoy it because it allows me to keep up with my friends and family all over the world. It also helped tremendously when needing to get addresses of people as references for security clearances and what not.


 I think if people find it useful then by all means. Just wasn't for me. I prefer texting for domestic communication and video apps like "whats app" for international.


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## rochie (Mar 14, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Don't people think that after 3 months working from home someone may say "You don't need an office", or worse, "we don't need you?"


i'll be honest and say i am bricking it !

lots of hotels restaurants etc could go under, times are very tough in the industry right now, dont need to be back out on the job market at 50, everyone wants young hip and trendy chefs, even though most customers are pretty conservative with food choices

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## imalko (Mar 14, 2020)

The Plague was going through the desert and encountered a caravan.
"Where are you going in such a hurry?" - caravan leader asked.
"To Damascus. I intend to take 1000 lives."
Later, on the way back the Plague came across the caravan again.
"Why did you say you are going to take 1000 lives, when you took 50000 of them?" - caravan leader asked.
"No." - the Plague replied - "I did take 1000 lives, the rest of them were taken by Fear."

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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

It seems like corona also can kill people that are not infected. 
A 86 year old man died even though he wasn’t infected by the coronavirus, a spokesman said.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I think if people find it useful then by all means. Just wasn't for me. I prefer texting for domestic communication and video apps like "whats app" for international.



I use those too. Skype and Whatsapp to video chat with our families in Germany.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> It seems like corona also can kill people that are not infected.
> A 86 year old man died even though he wasn’t infected by the coronavirus, a spokesman said.



I’m not following...


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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not following...


Joke, maybe too bad taste.

btw. My neighbour has it now. No joke.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Coronavirus vs. Swine Flu - the numbers


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Joke, maybe too bad taste.
> 
> btw. My neighbour has it now. No joke.



Too early in the morning for jokes. I had not had my coffee.

So far one at my work is confirmed, and 32 have been told to self quarantine.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Coronavirus vs. Swine Flu - the numbers



I would hold off on those number. Testing has been very poor.


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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I would hold off on those number. Testing has been very poor.


On the other hand, can’t remember to have worked from home in 2009. Didn’t realise more than a billion got swine flu back then.
Edit: also cannot find evidence for that number, so it’s a bit doubtful.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2020)

Welll...I found out this morning that I need to self-isolate. Only problem is that I was supposed to start a week ago, but the message only went out today. So far no symptoms here. Hoping and praying that I continue on that path!

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Hang in there Mark


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## Crimea_River (Mar 14, 2020)

rochie said:


> i'll be honest and say i am bricking it !
> 
> lots of hotels restaurants etc could go under, times are very tough in the industry right now, dont need to be back out on the job market at 50, everyone wants young hip and trendy chefs, even though most customers are pretty conservative with food choices



Well I think you're young and hip. Groovy too.

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## Airframes (Mar 14, 2020)

This is getting serious - my local small store is out of toilet rolls .............. and my favourite wine !!
All other shelves were stocked nomally for the time of day.
Bl**dy ridiculous, in a town of around 60,000, with five large supermarkets and many, many shops, both local and in town, and the hoarding syndrome has started !
As of this morning, there were *NO *cases of Covid-19 recorded in the entire region - and the bl**dy weather here might ensure that no disease can live anyway !
And just to really annoy me, I can't get a repeat prescription of my meds for the RA until I have an annual review with the Nurse at my GP's surgery - and I can't get an appointment for a review, as 'footfall' is being restricted, due to the risk of Covid-19 !!!
Therefore, without meds, my condition worsens, pain increases, leading to lack of sleep and rest, resulting in an already weakened immune system becoming even more degraded and therefore vulnerable to any and all infections !
And now I can't even have a drink, or a sh*t !!!!!

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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

Damn Terry.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

That sucks Terry

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

While it's not illegal in Canada yet it is still pathetic...https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappen...k-lysol-wipes-to-re-sell-for-profit-1.5496733
We get bottles of hand sanitizer for free at work and the machine has been out of stock for about 3 weeks. I always keep two. Gave my last one away when someone ran out


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## Elmas (Mar 14, 2020)

Smart working at home.

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## michael rauls (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> While it's not illegal in Canada yet it is still pathetic...https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappen...k-lysol-wipes-to-re-sell-for-profit-1.5496733
> We get bottles of hand sanitizer for free at work and the machine has been out of stock for about 3 weeks. I always keep two. Gave my last one away when someone ran out


That is pathetic. Here in the US we have anti gouging laws that are supposed to prevent that sort of thing but they are only very rarely enforced against individuals and never against corporations. If one is really desperate, fighting for ones life, be it due to something like cancer or something more immediate and acute like trama resulting from a car crash one can expect to pay often 10 to 100 fold what the services cost anywhere else in the world. As long as the gougers are corporations nobody says a word.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)



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## stona (Mar 14, 2020)

I just mixed up a batch of hand sanitiser for some family members.

It's just a mixture of 99% isopropyl alcohol and aloe gel. Many model makers will already have the alcohol, I've got almost a litre of the stuff and the gel is till readily available.

It's a LOT cheaper than the branded stuff, assuming you can still find it.

You need to end up with more than 60% by volume alcohol, the maths isn't difficult and it doesn't need to be precise.

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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

On a positive note, from the university in Rotterdam:


> In conclusion, this is the first report on a (human) monoclonal antibody that
> neutralizes SARS-CoV-2. 47D11 binds a conserved epitope on the spike receptor
> binding domain explaining its ability to cross-neutralize SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2,
> using a mechanism that is independent of receptor binding inhibition. This antibody will
> ...



https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1.full.pdf


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

I got this much...."On a positive note, from the university in Rotterdam:"................


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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> I got this much...."On a positive note, from the university in Rotterdam:"................


No quote?


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## michael rauls (Mar 14, 2020)

stona said:


> I just mixed up a batch of hand sanitiser for some family members.
> 
> It's just a mixture of 99% isopropyl alcohol and aloe gel. Many model makers will already have the alcohol, I've got almost a litre of the stuff and the gel is till readily available.
> 
> ...


I've read the 60% number sometimes as well but also other " experts" say 70% is the minimum number to kill all the nasties.
I certainly don't know which is correct but might want to err on the 70% side just to be safe.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

I was including the number in the sentences, 102, 103, etc... dang


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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> I was including the number in the sentences, 102, 103, etc... dang


Changed te text by copying from another pdf reader. Now the line numbers are gone.
Important part that most people like to read:
"
Hence, this antibody offers the potential to prevent and/or treat COVID-19, and possibly also other future emerging diseases in humans caused by viruses from the
Sarbecovirus subgenus."

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Just say its all good. How long and how much is needed to cure the world...........starting with me


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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Just say its all good. How long and how much is needed to cure the world...........starting with me


You? Don't know if there's any cure

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)



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## Airframes (Mar 14, 2020)

Just keep sniffing the glue and solvents Geo - that should prevent any virus getting to you !!

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

Some observations as of this morning.

It seems the numbers in China and S Korea have stabilized and new cases are going down as testing is increased. I think it's premature to compare the current numbers with other recent pandemics, this outbreak has to stabilize. Outside of China, Italy and Iran have been hit the hardest. Coronavirus Update (Live): 154,218 Cases and 5,798 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

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## stona (Mar 14, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I've read the 60% number sometimes as well but also other " experts" say 70% is the minimum number to kill all the nasties.
> I certainly don't know which is correct but might want to err on the 70% side just to be safe.



Yeah, here the advice is greater than 60%, I aimed for about 70%, but it could be slightly more or less. The concoction certainly smells as strong as the branded versions. It also stings like buggery if you get it in a small cut, that's an experiment I inadvertently carried out on myself


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Some observations as of this morning.
> 
> It seems the numbers in China and S Korea have stabilized and new cases are going down as testing is increased. I think it's premature to compare the current numbers with other recent pandemics, this outbreak has to stabilize. Outside of China, Italy and Iran have been hit the hardest. Coronavirus Update (Live): 154,218 Cases and 5,798 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer



China got it under control because they shut everything down.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

Some other thoughts - the numbers from the World Health Organization can be misleading as everyone who actually has COVID-19 may not be tested and just get over the virus. Additionally many of the current statistics are going to be relative to those tested vs infected vs recovery vs death vs population. Depending how quickly the outbreak was detected and addressed will obviously show the final results. China, with a population of almost 1.4 billion has had over 81,000 cases, almost 4,000 deaths. Statistically a drop in the bucket unless you're one of those affected.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> China got it under control because they shut everything down.


Same with S. Korea


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 14, 2020)

For China and Iran, I can't believe their numbers for the distortion and dishonesty (impropaganda)
I'd like to see results of a questionnaire showing the relative mortality of COVID19 for those who did vs those who did not test positive for Swine Flu.
P.S. My Church cancelled all meetings "for the duration". Low-level infrequent services may occur.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> For China and Iran, I can't believe their numbers for the distortion and dishonesty (impropaganda)
> I'd like to see results of a questionnaire showing the relative mortality of COVID19 for those who did vs those who did not test positive for Swine Flu.
> P.S. My Church cancelled all meetings "for the duration". Low-level infrequent services may occur.



I don’t trust our own numbers in the US, because we were so poorly prepared for this and lacked good testing.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> For China and Iran, *I can't believe their numbers for the distortion and dishonesty (impropaganda)*
> I'd like to see results of a questionnaire showing the relative mortality of COVID19 for those who did vs those who did not test positive for Swine Flu.
> P.S. My Church cancelled all meetings "for the duration". Low-level infrequent services may occur.



In the aftermath - Iran yes, China no. It's China's best interest to maintain some type of transparency and credibility as it's economic recovery depends on it.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 14, 2020)

Italy situation, today 5 p.m.
deaths 1,441, sicks cumulative 21,157, tests cumulative 109,170
lethality rate 6.81%


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy situation, today 5 p.m.
> deaths 1,441, sicks cumulative 21,157, tests cumulative 109,170
> lethality rate 6.81%



Thanks for the update - stay healthy my friend!


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## tomo pauk (Mar 14, 2020)

We're still very low on numbers of people tested positive and no confirmed deaths due to the virus;, in Dalmatia alone (800 000 population), there is nobody tested positive.
However, from Monday, the schools and kindergartens will be closed, apart from taking in the chidren whose parents do not have a way to look after their children when at house.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It's China's best interest to maintain some type of transparency and credibility as it's economic recovery depends on it.


This reasoning does not support the belief that China reports anything (COVID or non) accurately.
China's reporting ethos: "All news about China must be good. All references to good things must praise the Communist government."


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> This reasoning does not support the belief that China reports anything (COVID or non) accurately.
> China's reporting ethos: "All news about China must be good. All references to good things must praise the Communist government."


That's always been the party line. This is a whole new ball game and they know it. Party leaders in Wuhan were reprimanded for their actions (or lack thereof) and this was openly reported. The government allowed the frustration and discontent to be publicly shown when the virus at Wuhan was at it's peak. At this point they have no reason to hold back any information, if anything transparency helps them. Funny though, S. Korea has taken the same steps as China and they seemed to have stabilized the outbreak and their numbers per capita are similar to China.


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## Elmas (Mar 14, 2020)

A former italian Prime Minister takes his precautions against Co-vid19.
(from the Internet)

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## Vincenzo (Mar 14, 2020)

afaik he go in France, or better he fled to France


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

B.C. right now,

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## michael rauls (Mar 14, 2020)

Just got back from Costco to get gas. There was much less line than usual. While I was getting gas I looked over to see if there was still a line to get in the store( there's been a line literally down the block at our Costco last couple days. They've been showing it on the news) and there was none even though this is usually the busiest time of the week. Hopefully the hoarders have burned themselves out. I mean when you have 3 rooms full to the ceiling with toilet paper maybe it's time to call it a day.
Eventually they have to run out of money/space. Hopefully that has happened and at least that aspect of life can get back to something resembling normal.

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## Airframes (Mar 14, 2020)

I hope so, as this cork is getting mighty uncomfortable !!!

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## Elmas (Mar 14, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> afaik he go in France, or better he fled to France



so they say, with his brand new in-home nurse...





(from the internet)


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

With a little cabin fever settling in I decided to venture out and take a ride to my local Costco. My plan was to drive by and look at the massive lines BUT to my surprise, it was EMPTY!!! They did have signs stating no toilet paper, but aside from that they had plenty of food. I didn't check for hand sanitizer for disinfectants. I did by a few things including a 1.75 liter of Kirkland Irish Cream!

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## JAG88 (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> That's always been the party line. This is a whole new ball game and they know it. Party leaders in Wuhan were reprimanded for their actions (or lack thereof) and this was openly reported. The government allowed the frustration and discontent to be publicly shown when the virus at Wuhan was at it's peak. At this point they have no reason to hold back any information, if anything transparency helps them. Funny though, S. Korea has taken the same steps as China and they seemed to have stabilized the outbreak and their numbers per capita are similar to China.



They are trying to paint themselves as ultra-efficient and trying to set a contrast with the "incompetent" west, therefore their lackeys at the WHO already declared Europe the new epicenter after lavishing praise on the Chinese dictatorship... always remember that the WHO REFUSED to name the virus to prevent it from casting any shade in China and also refused to declare a pandemic because China would have been blamed, now they are claiming all is ok there, just fine see? All the mess is in the west, we controlled the virus here, if it became a mess it is your own fault... all hail China.

Korea was FAR more proactive and effective than China, not even close.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> They are trying to paint themselves as ultra-efficient and trying to set a contrast with the "incompetent" west, therefore their lackeys at the WHO already declared Europe the new epicenter after lavishing praise on the Chinese dictatorship... always remember that the WHO REFUSED to name the virus to prevent it from casting any shade in China and also refused to declare a pandemic because China would have been blamed, now they are claiming all is ok there, just fine see? All the mess is in the west, we controlled the virus here, if it became a mess it is your own fault... all hail China.
> 
> Korea was FAR more proactive and effective than China, not even close.


Please don't make this political - I'm going by numbers. Read my post at the beginning of this thread.

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## cherry blossom (Mar 14, 2020)

I found an interesting article on the statistics of coronavirus  which suggests a crude way to calculate the total number of cases in the early stages by taking the number of deaths and multiplying by 800. My feeling is that having a capacity to test many people, South Korea can test 140,000 per week, makes any lock down much more effective.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 14, 2020)

South Korea did in all 261 thousands test at 14th March, maybe140 th. for week is a bit exaggerated


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## JAG88 (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Please don't make this political - I'm going by numbers. Read my post at the beginning of this thread.



So, in order to not be political que have to believe their claims? Because that is the issue, btw, I wouldnt believe anything coming from the current US govt either... not because of politics, but because they, just like the Chinese, have been caught lying.

Simple as that.


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## cherry blossom (Mar 14, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> South Korea did in all 261 thousands test at 14th March, maybe140 th. for week is a bit exaggerated


You may be correct. I took the number from a BBC article Is S Korea's rapid testing the key to coronavirus?

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## Zipper730 (Mar 14, 2020)

imalko said:


> The Plague was going through the desert and encountered a caravan . . . . "Why did you say you are going to take 1000 lives, when you took 50000 of them?" - caravan leader asked.
> 
> "No." - the Plague replied - "I did take 1000 lives, the rest of them were taken by Fear."


I agree... basically we're seeing people running around like chickens with their heads cut off. The problem is we're not getting accurate information.



fubar57 said:


> Coronavirus vs. Swine Flu - the numbers


Yeah, the numbers are wildly higher, and the sky didn't fall, and all hell didn't break loose. I know two people who actually got it (one just had a bad flu, the other was nearly incapacitated).



stona said:


> I just mixed up a batch of hand sanitiser for some family members.
> 
> It's just a mixture of 99% isopropyl alcohol and aloe gel. Many model makers will already have the alcohol, I've got almost a litre of the stuff and the gel is till readily available.


Where do you get 99% isopropyl alcohol?


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Over the counter in my local drugstores, no questions asked. They did give me a once over when I asked for syringes right after


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## pbehn (Mar 14, 2020)

There is now a new definition of time. The shortest known period of time used to be the period between a light turning to green and a Saudi Arabian sounding their car horn. This has been replaced by the period between some unknown academic saying "this isn't political" and then making some stupid political comment.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> So, in order to not be political que have to believe their claims? Because that is the issue, btw, I wouldnt believe anything coming from the current US govt either... not because of politics, but because they, just like the Chinese, have been caught lying.
> 
> Simple as that.



No one is stating you have to believe their claims or any other government's claims; your opinion and that's fine. If you have tangible evidence to show the Chinese (or any government) are lying about their coronavirus numbers, please let us know, in the meantime this is just your opinion, and I think you know the old saying about opinions....


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## JAG88 (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> No one is stating you have to believe their claims or any other government's claims; your opinion and that's fine. If you have tangible evidence to show the Chinese (or any government) are lying about their coronavirus numbers, please let us know, in the meantime this is just your opinion, and I think you know the old saying about opinions....



Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities

They lied from the start, so no, I dont have to show proof to distrust their subsequent statements, their credibility is already ruined, and many of their declarations are simply transparent propaganda... unless you believe the US Army caused the outbreak like you believe their numbers...

Chinese diplomat promotes conspiracy theory that US military brought virus to Wuhan - CNN

But hey, maybe they are right, it wouldnt be the first time the US has purposely infected people in other countries...


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Coronavirus: Wuhan doctor speaks out against authorities
> 
> They lied from the start, so no, I dont have to show proof to distrust their subsequent statements, their credibility is already ruined, and many of their declarations are simply transparent propaganda... unless you believe the US Army caused the outbreak like you believe their numbers...



And since that time those who have suppressed information (by virtue of working in their system) have been removed. IMO the Chinese government has been forthcoming with information (despite the propaganda music paying in the backgrond)


JAG88 said:


> Chinese diplomat promotes conspiracy theory that US military brought virus to Wuhan - CNN



And utter nonsense as well as the other dozen or so conspiracy theories to include this virus was made in a Chinese lab.


JAG88 said:


> But hey, maybe they are right, it wouldnt be the first time the US has purposely infected people in other countries...


Although non disputable (depending who you believe), that's the kind of political BS I don't want to have here. I suggest you tone it down.


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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> I remember when I had Facebook......for about 5 minutes



yeah me too. The first batch of recommended freinds included a person on the cops most wanted list who I had never met.

Instant delete


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## JAG88 (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And since that time those who have suppressed information (by virtue of working in their system) have been removed. IMO the Chinese government has been forthcoming with information (despite the propaganda music paying in the backgrond)
> 
> 
> And utter nonsense as well as the other dozen or so conspiracy theories to include this virus was made in a Chinese lab.
> ...




You know what, you are free to believe whomever you want...


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> You know what, you are free to believe whomever you want...



Likewise -


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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

Airframes said:


> This is getting serious - my local small store is out of toilet rolls .............. and my favourite wine !!
> All other shelves were stocked nomally for the time of day.
> Bl**dy ridiculous, in a town of around 60,000, with five large supermarkets and many, many shops, both local and in town, and the hoarding syndrome has started !
> As of this morning, there were *NO *cases of Covid-19 recorded in the entire region - and the bl**dy weather here might ensure that no disease can live anyway !
> ...



Yep. And elective surgery is cancelled for the next 90 days in my preferred hospital - which I totally support - but my wife has had a "sore shoulder" for a couple of years and the doctor finally decided to do an xray because she packed a wobbly about her increasingly restricted movement. Turns out she has major osteo and the loss of movement is because the jagged growths have destroyed her muscles. She was diagnosed Tuesday and supposed to get a shoulder reversal on the 19th. NOT happy but the hospital is now home to the areas first Covid-19 patient and neither of us want to go near the place until that has been got under control. While there on Tuesday I noticed that 100% of the persons coming in and leaving held onto the hand rail on the steps up to the door. That is another area to avoid if you possibly can.


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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Coronavirus vs. Swine Flu - the numbers



Yes but remember that the swine flu also started with very small numbers.

Because of my job I need to keep up to date on all infectious diseases (fly-in fly-out staff from sometimes over 20 countries) and so I have a ProMED mail subscription from the *I*nternational Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID).

If you want up to date and accurate information on Covid-19 get your own subscription - *its free.* Be warned - the daily summaries often run over 20 pages and can be difficult reading. 

To provide a little perspective -- at this stage of the SARS outbreak one ProMED mail said SARS should be renamed MORS for Massive Over Reaction Syndrome, Swine flu never generated any _panic now_ type material but this one is producing lots of very frightening data and absolutely no _ho-hums_ from anyone.

ProMED-mail 

*And yes ISAD do question the accuracy and reliability of information from official Chinese sources.* That at least is not a Dr Google or Dr Farcebook rumour.

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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

stona said:


> I just mixed up a batch of hand sanitiser for some family members.
> 
> It's just a mixture of 99% isopropyl alcohol and aloe gel. Many model makers will already have the alcohol, I've got almost a litre of the stuff and the gel is till readily available.
> 
> ...



SOAP is better. It does not kill the antibodies on your skin you need to combat virus infections but does eliminate the shit that has to go.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Similar to this Mi? Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports


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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> With a little cabin fever settling in I decided to venture out and take a ride to my local Costco. My plan was to drive by and look at the massive lines BUT to my surprise, it was EMPTY!!! They did have signs stating no toilet paper, but aside from that they had plenty of food. I didn't check for hand sanitizer for disinfectants. I did by a few things including a 1.75 liter of Kirkland Irish Cream!



Obviously you are a member of the Temperance movement. I purchased 2 cases of my favourite wine last week and often have about 6 bottles of my favourite rum as I get two bottles every month going through duty free.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2020)

Although there is a lot of over-reaction, this is a reason why we should still take this shit seriously:

The _attack rate_ or _transmissibility_ (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced _R-nought_ or _r-zero_), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.

WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.

Other studies have estimated a Ro between *3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58.*

Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between *1.5 and 3.5.*

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 156,730 Cases and 5,839 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer


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## MiTasol (Mar 14, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Similar to this Mi? Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports



Similar yes but much drier and more detailed with info from many sources. The WHO report is just one of the reports in each digest. In this digest the important (to me) bits are in subjects 5 and 6

*Example (a small part only of yesterdays report) * - as I said it can be hard to digest

CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 UPDATE (38): GLOBAL, MORE COUNTRIES, VIRUS
SURFACE STABILITY, MITIGATION IMPACT, WHO
*************************************************************************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

In this update:
[1] Global updates: CSSE & Worldometer
[2] China: China National Health Commission 13 Mar 2020
[3] Countries with notable local transmission (South Korea, Italy,
Iran)
[4] New countries confirming cases (14 countries)
[5] Virus surface stability
[6] How will mitigation measures influence the course of the epidemic
*[7] WHO situation report 53 (as of 13 Mar 2020)*

******
[1] Global updates: CSSE & Worldometer
Date: Fri 13 Mar 2020 [accessed 2:00 AM 14 Mar 2020]
Sources:
- Johns Hopkins CSSE (Center for Systems Science and Engineering)
[edited]
<https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6>
- Worldometer [edited]
<https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries>

Confirmed cases Start of data recording: 1st data / ... / 1 Mar 2020 /
... / 8 Mar 2020 / 9 Mar 2020 / 10 Mar 2020 / 11 Mar 2020 / 12 Mar
2020 / 13 Mar 2020 / Country

2 Feb 2020: 17 187 / ... / 80 024 / ... / 80 735 / 80 754 / 80 954 /
80 932 / 80 814 / 80 824 / Mainland China
2 Feb 2020: 20 / ... / 256 / ... / 502 / 511 / 581 / 639 / 691 / 734 /
Japan
2 Feb 2020: 19 / ... / 42 / ... / 50 / 50 / 53 / 59 / 70 / 75 /
Thailand
2 Feb 2020: 18 / ... / 106 / ... / 150 / 150 / 160 / 178 / 187 / 200 /
Singapore
2 Feb 2020: 15 / ... / 96 / ... / 114 / 115 / -- / -- / 132 / 132 /
Hong Kong
2 Feb 2020: 15 / ... / 3726 / ... / 7382 / 7478 / 7755 / 7979 / 8086 /
South Korea
2 Feb 2020: 12 / ... / 27 / ... / 76 / 91 / 107 / 128 / 160 / 199 /
Australia
2 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 130 / ... / 1040 / 1176 / 1565 / 1966 / 2745 /
3675 / Germany
2 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 40 / ... / 45 / 45 / -- / 48 / 49 / 50 /
Taiwan
2 Feb 2020: 11 / ... / 76 / ... / 547 / 605 / 972 / 1311 / 1762 / 2294
/ USA
2 Feb 2020: 8 / ... / 10 / ... / 10 / 10 / -- / -- / 10 / 10 / Macau
2 Feb 2020: 8 / ... / 29 / ... / 99 / 117 / 129 / 149 / 158 / 197 /
Malaysia
2 Feb 2020: 6 / ... / 130 / ... / 1209 / 1209 / 1784 / 2284 / 2876 /
3661 / France
2 Feb 2020: 6 / ... / 16 / ... / 30 / 30 / 31 / 38 / 44 / 44 / Viet
Nam
2 Feb 2020: 5 / ... / 21 / ... / 45 / 45 / 74 / 74 / 85 / 85 / United
Arab Emirates
2 Feb 2020: 4 / ... / 24 / ... / 64 / 77 / 79 / 117 / 158 / 198 /
Canada
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 1694 / ... / 7375 / 9172 / 10 149 / 12 462 / 15
113 / 17 660 / Italy
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 2 / ... / 17 / 17 / 10 / 20 / 34 / 45 / Russia
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / ... / 10 / 20 / 33 / 49 / 52 / 64 /
Philippines
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / ... / 39 / 43 / 56 / 62 / 75 / 82 / India
2 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 36 / ... / 273 / 321 / 382 / 459 / 590 / 798 /
UK
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Nepal
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 7 / Cambodia
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 84 / ... / 673 / 1073 / 1695 / 2277 / 3146 /
5232 / Spain
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 6 / ... / 23 / 30 / 40 / 59 / 109 / 155 /
Finland
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 14 / ... / 203 / 248 / 355 / 500 / 687 / 814 /
Sweden
2 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 6 / Sri Lanka
4 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 200 / 239 / 267 / 314 / 399 / 559 /
Belgium
14 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 49 / 55 / 59 / 60 / 80 / 93 / Egypt
19 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 978 / ... / 6566 / 7161 / 8042 / 9000 / 10 075
/ 11 364 / Iran
21 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 32 / 32 / 41 / 61 / 68 / 77 /
Lebanon
21 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 39 / 39 / 75 / 109 / 109 / 143 /
Israel
24 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 6 / ... / 16 / 16 / 18 / 18 / 18 / 19 / Oman
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 4 / 4 / 5 / 7 / 7 / 7 / Afghanistan
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 45 / ... / 64 / 64 / 69 / 72 / 80 / 100 /
Kuwait
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 47 / ... / 85 / 95 / 110 / 195 / 197 / 210 /
Bahrain
24 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 19 / ... / 60 / 60 / 71 / 71 / 83 / 101 / Iraq
25 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 14 / ... / 104 / 131 / 182 / 246 / 361 / 504 /
Austria
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 19 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 26 / 26 /
Algeria
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 7 / ... / 12 / 13 / 14 / 19 / 27 / 32 /
Croatia
25 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 27 / ... / 337 / 374 / 491 / 652 / 868 / 1139 /
Switzerland
26 Feb 2020: 2 / ... / 4 / ... / 6 / 6 / 16 / 19 / 21 / 28 / Pakistan
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 19 / ... / 176 / 205 / 400 / 629 / 800 / 996 /
Norway
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 13 / 15 / 15 / 24 / 25 / 25 /
Georgia
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 7 / 9 / 14 / North
Macedonia
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / ... / 20 / 25 / 31 / 52 / 77 / 151 /
Brazil
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 15 / 15 / 25 / 47 / 59 / 95 /
Romania
26 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 7 / ... / 73 / 73 / 89 / 99 / 117 / 190 /
Greece
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 8 / ... / 36 / 36 / 51 / 62 / 72 / 80 / San
Marino
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 10 / ... / 265 / 321 / 382 / 503 / 614 / 804 /
Netherlands
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 4 / ... / 35 / 90 / 262 / 516 / 674 / 804 /
Denmark
27 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 10 / 10 / 13 / 16 / 27 / 79 /
Estonia
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 6 / Lithuania
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Nigeria
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 50 / 58 / 69 / 85 / 117 / 134 /
Iceland
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / ... / 9 / 9 / 11 / 11 / 15 / 15 /
Azerbaijan
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / Monaco
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 6 / 6 / 9 / 9 / 21 / 27 / Belarus
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 6 / New Zealand
28 Feb 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / ... / 7 / 7 / 7 / 8 / 12 / 15 / Mexico
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 6 / ... / 14 / 15 / 15 / 17 / 17 / 23 / Ecuador
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 3 / ... / 15 / 18 / 24 / 262 / 262 / 320 / Qatar
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 1 / ... / 21 / 21 / 34 / 43 / 70 / 90 / Ireland
29 Feb 2020: 1 / 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 8 / Armenia
1 Mar 2020: 3 / ... / 31 / 31 / 41 / 94 / 116 / 141 / Czech Republic
1 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / Dominican Republic
1 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 26 / 38 / Luxembourg
2 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 6 / 19 / 27 / 34 / 34 / 69 / Indonesia
2 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 30 / 30 / 41 / 59 / 78 / 112 / Portugal
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Andorra
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 11 / 15 / 20 / 45 / 62 / 86 / Saudi Arabia
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 10 / 21 / Senegal
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 6 / 7 / Morocco
2 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 6 / 8 / 10 / 16 / 17 / Latvia
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 12 / 12 / 19 / 19 / 31 / 34 / Argentina
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Jordan
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 8 / 8 / 13 / 23 / 33 / 43 / Chile
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / Ukraine
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 4 / 4 / Liechtenstein
3 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 5 / 7 / 13 / 16 / Tunisia
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 1 / 1 / -- / 1 / 1 / Saint Barthelemy
4 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 7 / 9 / 9 / 13 / 16 / 19 / Hungary
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 2 / 2 / -- / 2 / 3 / Faroe Islands
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / -- / 1 / 1 / Gibraltar
4 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 11 / 16 / 22 / 31 / 51 / 68 / Poland
5 Mar 2020: 4 / ... / 22 / 22 / 25 / -- / 31 / 35 / Palestine [West
Bank]
5 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 16 / 16 / 31 / -- / 96 / 141 / Slovenia
5 Mar 2020: 2 / ... / 3 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 11 / 18 / Bosnia & Herzegovina
5 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 13 / 16 / 24 / South Africa
5 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 5 / 9 / 9 / 22 / 23 / 23 / Costa Rica
6 Mar 2020: 5 / ... / 5 / 5 / 5 / 5 / 6 / 6 / French Guiana
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / Martinique
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Cameroon
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 3 / 3 / 7 / 10 / 21 / 32 / Slovakia
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 6 / 7 / 11 / 13 / 22 / 38 / Peru
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Togo
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Vatican City
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 3 / 9 / 9 / 16 / Colombia
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Bhutan
6 Mar 2020: 1 / ... / 1 / 1 / 5 / 12 / 24 / 35 / Serbia
7 Mar 2020: 3 / 3 / 3 / 5 / 6 / 9 / 12 / Malta
7 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 5 / 6 / 6 / Paraguay
8 Mar 2020: 4 / 4 / 4 / 7 / 23 / 31 / Bulgaria
8 Mar 2020: 4 / 4 / 6 / 8 / 8 / 9 / Maldives
8 Mar 2020: 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / Bangladesh
8 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 6 / 6 / Moldova
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / Burkina Faso
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 10 / 15 / 23 / 33 / Albania
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / ... / 2 / 2 / St Martin
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 3 / 6 / 10 / 14 / Cyprus
9 Mar 2020: 2 / 1 / 11 / 25 / 37 / Brunei
10 Mar 2020: 1 / -- / 3 / 3 / Channel Islands
10 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / Mongolia
10 Mar 2020: 1 / 8 / 27 / 27 / Panama
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 3 / 10 / Bolivia
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 8 / Jamaica
11 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / 2 / Honduras
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 5 / Turkey
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 4 / 5 / Reunion
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 2 / DR Congo (Kinshasa)
11 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / 1 / Cote d'Ivoire
12 Mar 2020: 3 / 4 / Cuba
12 Mar 2020: 2 / 2 / Ghana
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / Guyana
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 3 / French Polynesia
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / St Vincent Grenadines
12 Mar 2020: 1 / 1 / Trinidad & Tobago
13 Mar 2020: 4 / Kazakhstan
13 Mar 2020: 4 / Uruguay
13 Mar 2020: 3 / Puerto Rico
13 Mar 2020: 2 / Aruba
13 Mar 2020: 2 / Venezuela
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Sudan
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Antigua & Barbuda
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Cayman Islands
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Curacao
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Ethiopia
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Gabon
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guadeloupe
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guatemala
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Guinea
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Kenya
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Mauritania
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Saint Lucia
13 Mar 2020: 1 / Suriname
4 Feb 2020: 10 / ... / 705 / ... / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 / 696 /
Others (Diamond Princess)

Total number of reported deaths: 5436
Deaths outside mainland China: 2247 [including 7 from the Diamond
Princess]

Italy: 1266
Iran: 514
Spain: 133
France: 79
South Korea: 72
USA: 50
Japan: 21
UK: 11
Switzerland: 11
Netherlands: 10
Iraq: 9
Germany: 8
Diamond Princess: 7
Philippines: 6
San Marino: 5
Hong Kong: 4
Indonesia: 4
Australia: 3

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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2020)

Mercy me!!

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## JAG88 (Mar 15, 2020)

List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 15, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.



Many of the sources collecting information are updating continually. Saw some information from Venezuela, 2 cases - both patients were recently in Spain


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> List missing the dead from Southamerica, not many... but still.


Are there deaths there?


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

I have cut the numbers from topic 5 and 6 to make them readable *and bolded the important things *(to me) - the interesting comment is about New Zealands advertising
Note that, because the two diseases are related, there is often reference to SARS. Fomite is best summarised as saliva.

[5] Virus surface stability
Date: Fri 13 Mar 2020
Source: MedRxiv [edited]
<https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/10/2020.03.09.20033217.full.pdf>


ref: van Doremalen N, Bushmaker T, Morris D, et al. Aerosol and
surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1.
medRxiv: 2020.2003.2009.20033217.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused more than 88 000 reported illnesses with a
current case-fatality ratio of approximately 2%. Here, we investigate
the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in
comparison with SARS-CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between
HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. *We found that viable virus could be detected
in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on
copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to 2-3 days on plastic and
stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives
in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show
relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene
compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for
HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on
polypropylene. Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite
transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable
in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.*

--
Communicated by:
Charles Calisher
<[email protected]>

[Because high viral loads (SARS-CoV-2) are found in the upper and
lower respiratory tracts of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection,
transmissibility routes for the virus were looked at and compared with
those seen in SARS-CoV-1 (the virus responsible for the 2002/2003 SARS
outbreak). While the SARS-CoV-2 is demonstrating a higher
transmissibility than the SARS-CoV-1, the 2 viruses have very similar
environmental viability. The authors discuss possible explanations for
the increased transmissibility:

1. The SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals may well shed virus while
pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, thereby reducing the efficacy of
quarantine and contact tracing.
2. Other likely factors include the infectious dose needed to
establish an infection, stability of virus in mucus, and other
environmental factors such as the temperature and relative humidity.

The authors discussed superspreading events that were major events
triggering chains of transmission during the 2002-2003 outbreak of
SARS through fomite and aerosol transmission; they concluded that
given the similar profiles of the 2 viruses, it is highly likely that
the SARS-CoV-2 may also have superspreading events.

The authors concluded that aerosol and fomite transmission of the
SARS-CoV-2 are plausible, since the virus can remain viable in
aerosols for multiple hours, and on surfaces up to days.

We have anecdotal observations (pending official epidemiologic
presentations) demonstrating the chains of transmissions provoked by
index case superspreaders) that there have been superspreading
events/individuals associated with the outbreak in a church group
population in South Korea (and in their tour group to Israel and
Palestine), and in the newly identified outbreak in Westchester
County, New York. - Mod.MPP]

******
[6] How will mitigation measures influence the course of the epidemic
Date: Mon 9 Mar 2020
Source: The Lancet [abridged, edited]
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext>


Anderson RM, Heesterbeek, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD. How will
country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19
epidemic? Lancet. 2020; pii: S0140-6736(20)30567-5. doi:
10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a Comment to The Lancet, Anderson et.al. discussed observations on
the impact of mitigation measures on the course of the COVID-19
epidemic at the country level.

Excerpts below:
"Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread.
Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for
individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to
ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn.

*"What has happened in China shows that quarantine, social distancing,
and isolation of infected populations can contain the epidemic.* This
impact of the COVID-19 response in China is encouraging for the many
countries where COVID-19 is beginning to spread. However, it is
unclear whether other countries can implement the stringent measures
China eventually adopted. Singapore and Hong Kong, both of which had
severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002-03, provide
hope and many lessons to other countries. In both places, COVID-19 has
been managed well to date, despite early cases, by early government
action and through social distancing measures taken by individuals.

"*The course of an epidemic is defined by a series of key factors, some
of which are poorly understood at present for COVID-19. The basic
reproduction number (R0), which defines the mean number of secondary
cases generated by one primary case when the population is largely
susceptible to infection, determines the overall number of people who
are likely to be infected, or more precisely the area under the
epidemic curve. For an epidemic to take hold, the value of R0 must be
greater than unity in value.*

"The speed of the initial spread of the epidemic, its doubling time,
or the related serial interval (the mean time it takes for an infected
person to pass on the infection to others), and the likely duration of
the epidemic are determined by factors such as the length of time from
infection to when a person is infectious to others and the mean
duration of infectiousness.

"First among the important unknowns about COVID-19 is the case
fatality rate (CFR), which requires information on the denominator
that defines the number infected. We are unaware of any completed
large-scale serology surveys to detect specific antibodies to
COVID-19.

"The 2nd unknown is whether infectiousness starts before onset of
symptoms. The incubation period for COVID-19 is about 5-6 days. In one
study of 17 patients with COVID-19, peak viraemia seems to be at the
end of the incubation period, pointing to the possibility that
viraemia might be high enough to trigger transmission for 1-2 days
before onset of symptoms.

"The 3rd uncertainty is whether there are a large number of
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of
people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have
severe disease, and 6% are critically ill, implying that symptom-based
control is unlikely to be sufficient unless these cases are only
lightly infectious.

"The 4th uncertainty is the duration of the infectious period for
COVID-19.

"A key issue for epidemiologists is helping policy makers decide the
main objectives of mitigation, such as, minimising morbidity and
associated mortality, avoiding an epidemic peak that overwhelms
healthcare services, keeping the effects on the economy within
manageable levels, and flattening the epidemic curve to wait for
vaccine development and manufacture on scale and antiviral drug
therapies. Such mitigation objectives are difficult to achieve by the
same interventions, so choices must be made about priorities. For
COVID-19, the potential economic impact of self-isolation or mandated
quarantine could be substantial, as occurred in China.

"No vaccine or effective antiviral drug is likely to be available
soon.

*"So what is left at present for mitigation is voluntary plus mandated
quarantine, stopping mass gatherings, closure of educational
institutes or places of work where infection has been identified, and
isolation of households, towns, or cities. Social distancing measures
reduce the value of the effective reproduction number R.*

"Therefore, broader-scale social distancing is likely to be needed, as
was put in place in China. This measure prevents transmission from
symptomatic and non-symptomatic cases, hence flattening the epidemic
and pushing the peak further into the future. Broader-scale social
distancing provides time for the health services to treat cases and
increase capacity, and, in the longer term, for vaccines and
treatments to be developed. The greater the reduction in transmission,
the longer and flatter the epidemic curve (figure), with the risk of
resurgence when interventions are lifted perhaps to mitigate economic
impact.

"Individual behaviour will be crucial to control the spread of
COVID-19.

"Data from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran suggest that the CFR
increases sharply with age and is higher in people with COVID-19 and
underlying comorbidities. Targeted social distancing for these groups
could be the most effective way to reduce morbidity and concomitant
mortality."

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

*[A graphic representation of the conclusions and discussions within*
*this comment has gone viral on the Internet (on Facebook and Twitter).
It is available at
<https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v2.gif>.
A picture is worth 1000 words... it highlights how mitigation by
slowing down the rate of transmission flattens the curve (epidemic
curve) and helps to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the health*
*sector. - Mod.MPP]*

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> "*The course of an epidemic is defined by a series of key factors, some
> of which are poorly understood at present for COVID-19. The basic
> reproduction number (R0), which defines the mean number of secondary
> cases generated by one primary case when the population is largely
> ...



Great post - and this is the biggest factor. This shit is showing an RO up to 4 depending on who's numbers you want to believe


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## michael rauls (Mar 15, 2020)

Probably everyone knows this, at least the first part, but I'll throw it out there anyway.
Studies show that zinc is the most effective supplement you can take to shorten the length and severity of viral illness. Much more effective than the commonly used vitamin C( which is also helpful to a much lesser degree).
I also remember reading somewhere that quinine( which can be found in small amounts in genuine tonic water) greatly increases zinc penetration at a cellular level. 
So maybe some zinc supplements and a little tonic water might take a little of the edge off this thing if anyone gets it. Certainly can't hurt.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 15, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Probably everyone knows this, at least the first part, but I'll throw it out there anyway.
> Studies show that zinc is the most effective supplement you can take to shorten the length and severity of viral illness. Much more effective than the commonly used vitamin C( which is also helpful to a much lesser degree).
> I also remember reading somewhere that quinine( which can be found in small amounts in genuine tonic water) greatly increases zinc penetration at a cellular level.
> So maybe some zinc supplements and a little tonic water might take a little of the edge off this thing if anyone gets it. Certainly can't hurt.



Been doing 50mg of Zinc a day for the past 10 years.


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## michael rauls (Mar 15, 2020)

Same here. Now I just have to remember to grab a little tonic water when I'm out shopping tomorrow.

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## JAG88 (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Are there deaths there?



2 in Ecuador
2 in Argentina
1 in Panama

From memory.

RECORDED cases still under 50 in most countries (easy to achieve when you dont test people) save for Brazil, most of them of Italian origin, but phase 3 has already began due to lax containment measures.

I would be AMAZED if SA does not become a replay of Italy...

So far toilet paper terror seems to be an anglo thing, so it wont be an issue when people REALLY begin to shit themselves over this, we are still in the meme phase though.

On the other hand, looting has become kind of a fashion on recent times in some countries, specially after most got flooded by Venezuelan refugees, so I am looking forward to that, fun times.

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## michael rauls (Mar 15, 2020)

The " shell"( cant think of the proper term right now) that encapsulates virus with a few exceptions is not viable for nearly as long in warm weather( hence the cold and flu season being in the winter) so I wouldn't expect this to really take off in the southern hemisphere right now.
If it does that could mean we've got one of those exceptions on our hands and that wouldn't be good but hopefully this thing burns out as the weather warms up shortly.
That would be my expectation but who knows.


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## Marcel (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> SOAP is better. It does not kill the antibodies on your skin you need to combat virus infections but does eliminate the shit that has to go.


This. To support this: Situations Leading to Reduced Effectiveness of Current Hand Hygiene against Infectious Mucus from Influenza Virus-Infected Patients

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## Vincenzo (Mar 15, 2020)

cherry blossom said:


> You may be correct. I took the number from a BBC article Is S Korea's rapid testing the key to coronavirus?



maybe the "nearly 20,000" was the best day


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## The Basket (Mar 15, 2020)

I would like to read something which I would find useful.

The media are saying all sorts which means getting info is biased based on fiction rather than facts.

So it's either a paper tiger or black death II with extra toilet rolls.

As a qualified scientist I am not reading unbiased information which I can base my own judgement on.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 15, 2020)

I've found reading about this event puts COVID-19 into perspective:

The Discovery and Reconstruction of the 1918 Pandemic Virus

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic


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## JAG88 (Mar 15, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> The " shell"( cant think of the proper term right now) that encapsulates virus with a few exceptions is not viable for nearly as long in warm weather( hence the cold and flu season being in the winter) so I wouldn't expect this to really take off in the southern hemisphere right now.
> If it does that could mean we've got one of those exceptions on our hands and that wouldn't be good but hopefully this thing burns out as the weather warms up shortly.
> That would be my expectation but who knows.



Hopefully it is so, I live on the Equator so no winter, days begin around 6-10º and peak around 24-32º, all we get is "wetter months". Down south is full 4 seasons of course and summer is ending, still, Chile is already on 61 cases and in community contagion, no longer limited to imported cases in spite of authorities there having better reaction times.

It is in all SA countries now:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Edit: Keep in mind that, like Italy, some countries are testing just the sick people, so it is far worse than reported, which is why Ecuador has a 10% mortality rate (in a very small number of cases, but still).

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## stona (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> SOAP is better. It does not kill the antibodies on your skin you need to combat virus infections but does eliminate the shit that has to go.



Soap is not better or worse than alcohol. 

Soap is effective against the lipid coating of the virus and also denatures the outer viral proteins. It is just more practical and readily available in the home. Some researchers believe that it is lipids that will prove the Achilles heel of this family of viruses.

Outside the home alcohol is just as effective at destroying the lipid envelope and it disrupts the RNA within the virus.

I'm not going to use alcohol at home when I have easy access to soap and water. When I'm out and about I will use alcohol to sanitise my hands from time to time, and before driving home.

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## michael rauls (Mar 15, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Hopefully it is so, I live on the Equator so no winter, days begin around 6-10º and peak around 24-32º, all we get is "wetter months". Down south is full 4 seasons of course and summer is ending, still, Chile is already on 61 cases and in community contagion, no longer limited to imported cases in spite of authorities there having better reaction times.
> 
> It is in all SA countries now:
> 
> Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS


I wouldn't let my guard down, just in case.
Of course one can still get colds and flu in the summer( and that really sucks by the way, having the flu when its 100 degrees outside) it just isn't as viable outside the body for as long in the warmer weather so doesn't spread as fast or affect nearly as many people.
So ive read anyway.
Hopefully it doesn't really take off in the southern hemisphere right now.


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## mikewint (Mar 15, 2020)

Vitamin C can reduce the duration of cold symptoms if you’ve started taking it regularly before falling sick. This seems especially true for athletes and older people.

Vitamin D3 can help prevent upper respiratory infections. People’s spending a lot of time indoors in the winter is tied to seasonal flu through higher viral transmission in closed areas and a lack of sun (in addition to allowing your skin to synthesize vitamin D, solar UV rays can inactivate viruses).

*Zinc oral lozenges can reduce symptom severity, due to inhibiting viral replication at the back of your throat. Swallowed tablets aren’t effective, and nasal spray may cause permanent adverse effects (anosmia).* Zinc acetate lozenges may be a bit more effective than zinc gluconate lozenges, although perhaps not significantly so.

Hemilä H, et al. Zinc acetate lozenges for treating the common cold: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Br J Clin Pharmacol. (2016)
Hemilä H, Chalker E. The effectiveness of high dose zinc acetate lozenges on various common cold symptoms: a meta-analysis. BMC Fam Pract. (2015)
Hemilä H. Zinc lozenges and the common cold: a meta-analysis comparing zinc acetate and zinc gluconate, and the role of zinc dosage. JRSM Open. (2017)
Alexander TH, Davidson TM. Intranasal zinc and anosmia: the zinc-induced anosmia syndrome. Laryngoscope. (2006)
Hemilä H, et al. Zinc Acetate Lozenges May Improve the Recovery Rate of Common Cold Patients: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis. Open Forum Infect Dis. (2017)

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## JAG88 (Mar 15, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I wouldn't let my guard down, just in case.
> Of course one can still get colds and flu in the summer( and that really sucks by the way, having the flu when its 100 degrees outside) it just isn't as viable outside the body for as long in the warmer weather so doesn't spread as fast or affect nearly as many people.
> So ive read anyway.
> Hopefully it doesn't really take off in the southern hemisphere right now.



I was raised on the knowledge that everything grows and flourishes here, plants, animals... and diseases. I dont expect the weather to help one bit, on the coastal plain it is hot but very humid, on the highlands the temperature peak is brief if any, a couple hours, it is always spring here to give you a reference.

On the southern cone summer is dying down, autumn rains are a couple weeks away and this is just starting. We'll see.


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## Marcel (Mar 15, 2020)

Schools closed here until April 6th.


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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

The UK is now in fully Henny Penny mode, the government is asked why they are not doing every thing that all other countries are doing. I am off to tell the king myself


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## Shinpachi (Mar 15, 2020)

Looking the course of event for a month, basic points would be -
1. Try to stay at home
2. Don't visit the hospital without doctor's advice
3. Think the hospital is for the serious patients only because -
This is no serious disease for the youths.

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## stona (Mar 15, 2020)

There is a lot of hysteria around the pandemic. Panic buying etc. People need to get a grip. Today I had to go to three of shops before I could find some Yorkshire Gold (tea). It's f*ckin' ridiculous. Who is hoarding tea FFS? I went to buy some because I had run out, which seems perfectly reasonable.

The UK's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty has repeatedly said the government’s analysis suggests the death rate is either one per cent or less overall.

“The overall mortality rate is in our view one per cent or less overall, although higher in older and vulnerable groups.” 

Figures from South Korea, which has the most extensive testing per capita in the world, would appear to back up this analysis. The death rate in South Korea is currently just below one per cent, if you divide the number of positive cases by the total number of deaths in the country – although even they may not have tested every single case.

I returned from Italy, though not the affected area* a while ago. I did pass through airports and share flights with potentially infected people. I had a new cough which continued for over a week but which I am now getting over. I did feel a bit shit for a couple of days. I stayed at home since I developed the cough and avoided the family with the exception of the Fuhrerin, though I did move into a spare bedroom. We also didn't have a grandson over on this weekend as we usually do (he was very pissed off about it!). I haven't been tested and have no idea whether I had the virus or just...errr...a cough.

It's a matter of common sense. _If_ I had it and the Fuhrerin develops it, she will almost certainly be fine. The grandson thing was mainly because if he coughs once at his day care centre he'll be sent home for two weeks, the prospect of which drives his mother insane 

It is NOT just another flu, but for the VAST majority of people, symptoms are mild and they make a complete recovery in days rather than weeks.

Now all I have to do is convince the Fuhrerin to let me move back into _our_ bedroom!

*I was in Sicily for a few days break with the Fuhrerin, after the tour I was supposed to be working on was cancelled, not due to the virus.


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2020)

Yep. We are almost 1000kms from the nearest case and some people here have gone nuts as well. No T.P. or baby food on the shelves


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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Yep. We are almost 1000kms from the nearest case and some people here have gone nuts as well. No T.P. or baby food on the shelves


In the absence of sport the media are now treating announcements of deaths and confirmed cases as some sort of gruesome competition.


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2020)

I'm happy I gave up T.V. years ago with the exception of hockey, soccer or baseball games


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Yep. We are almost 1000kms from the nearest case and some people here have gone nuts as well. No T.P. or baby food on the shelves



Correction.

1000 km from the nearest confirmed case. People that show no symptoms are not tested. Testing has been very low period.


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## Marcel (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Yep. We are almost 1000kms from the nearest case and some people here have gone nuts as well. No T.P. or baby food on the shelves


I'm at this moment 5 meters from the nearest case, being next door.


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## gumbyk (Mar 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Correction.
> 
> 1000 km from the nearest confirmed case. People that show no symptoms are not tested. Testing has been very low period.


And that's a very short flight...


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## Vincenzo (Mar 15, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I'm at this moment 5 meters from the nearest case, being next door.



stay safe, put attention the virus stay in the air


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> And that's a very short flight...



We do have one citizen who is in the Philippines at the moment....plans are to shoot him when he steps off the plane

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## Vincenzo (Mar 15, 2020)

Italy report, today 5 p.m.
deaths 1,809, sicks cumulative 24,747, recoveries 2,335, tests 124,899
lethality rate 7,31%


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## Elmas (Mar 15, 2020)

Due to Co-vid19, the Continent is isolated from Sardinia.

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## Marcel (Mar 15, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> stay safe, put attention the virus stay in the air


I will. Neighbour even stopped smoking, which is saying something about how he feels. But I think it's not too bad.

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## mikewint (Mar 15, 2020)

Went to a small town Walmart about 60 miles from home. The parking lot was almost full. Their shelves were about 40-45% bare though we were able to get several items that were not in either of our local Walmarts. I managed to grab a container of Lysol disinfectant wipes as well as an aerosol can of Lysol. I just barely got to the end of the aisle when a family of four came behind me and swept the shelves of all the Lysol wipes and spray...probably be on Ebay by tonight for $30 each! Walmart announced that they are now closing all stores at 11PM so that they can stock without people grabbing the boxes from the stockers trying to get the stuff on shelves.
Any type of hand sanitizer was the impossible dream though there is always Ebay for a measly $300 a bottle


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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> We do have one citizen who is in the Philippines at the moment....plans are to shoot him when he steps off the plane


On UK TV (Sky) this afternoon there was some guy from Canada speaking for the whole of the situation in North America. Within two minutes they were discussing closing the border. WTF for? there are probably the same number of people with the virus on both sides. Why they discuss this crap is beyond me, it should be a science based decision for USA and Canada, but its great gossip for people who don't really know what to talk about.

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## JAG88 (Mar 15, 2020)

On a positive note, women got to celebrate their day in Santiago de Chile with a 100.000+ march:






...I am pretty sure it had nothing to do with the recent uptick in cases, if you do, I am sorry to tell you that you are misogynist.

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## Gnomey (Mar 15, 2020)

The risk is real if appropriate measures are not in place and the issue comes with healthcare resources. Yes most people have mild illnesses and that’s the end of it but those that get sick and require intensive treatment at the rate of increase seen in some places there is no chance the systems can cope with it. 

For instance there are only around 1 million intensive care bed in the US if we take based on Italy and China so far that around 10% of cases may need intensive care out that in perspective with regards to the possibilities. This does not account for the other conditions that may need the care but can’t get it. Anaesthetists and Intensivists are very worried. It may get to the stage of mass casualty triage and medicine if need outstrips the availability of services. Follow the guidelines guys and stay safe.

Being on the frontline I’m wary of what may still be ahead of us.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> People that show no symptoms are not tested. Testing has been very low period.


Which makes it very difficult to determine mortality rates. Some people are nearly asymptomatic.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> The risk is real if appropriate measures are not in place and the issue comes with healthcare resources. Yes most people have mild illnesses and that’s the end of it but those that get sick and require intensive treatment at the rate of increase seen in some places there is no chance the systems can cope with it.
> 
> For instance there are only around 1 million intensive care bed in the US if we take based on Italy and China so far that around 10% of cases may need intensive care out that in perspective with regards to the possibilities. This does not account for the other conditions that may need the care but can’t get it. Anaesthetists and Intensivists are very worried. It may get to the stage of mass casualty triage and medicine if need outstrips the availability of services. Follow the guidelines guys and stay safe.
> 
> Being on the frontline I’m wary of what may still be ahead of us.



thanks as a healthcare professional for your insight. I wish others would listen to others like you and Marcel.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 15, 2020)

pbehn said:


> ......there are probably the same number of people with the virus on both sides..



Population of Canada is 1/10 That of the US so I would say you are way off there.


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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Population of Canada is 1/10 That of the US so I would say you are way off there.


I mean either side of the border which is the only thing that really matters, how far is Dallas from the border with Canada?


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## Zipper730 (Mar 15, 2020)

Gnomey
,

Wait... I thought it was exclusively a dry cough?


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2020)

...and panic sets in........


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

stona said:


> Soap is not better or worse than alcohol.
> 
> Soap is effective against the lipid coating of the virus and also denatures the outer viral proteins. It is just more practical and readily available in the home. Some researchers believe that it is lipids that will prove the Achilles heel of this family of viruses.
> 
> ...



To quote the American Society for Microbiology (EBD is ethanol-based disinfectants, AHR is Antiseptic Hand Rubbing using alcohol solutions, IAV is influenza A virus , and yes they are different viruses and the Covid-19 is more aggressive but the subject is the effectiveness of alcohol solutions for virus prevention)

* IAV in mucus remained active despite 120 s of AHR; *however, *IAV in saline was completely inactivated within 30 s*.
Due to the low rate of diffusion/convection because of the physical properties of mucus as a hydrogel, *the time required for the ethanol concentration to reach an IAV inactivation level and thus for EBDs to completely inactivate IAV was approximately eight times longer in mucus than in saline. *

The most important finding there is that you need 240 seconds of active hand rubbing in the alcohol solution to kill a virus and only 30 seconds in saline. NOBODY keeps their hands wet and rubbing for four whole minutes when using alcohol. Most barely use four seconds and then with only a minute volume of the alcohol solution.

That means you are FAR better off carrying a bottle of saline instead of an alcohol solution and dousing your hands in that.

I do not have a comparison of saline versus soap but soap also eliminates the problem far better than alcohol though the much larger volume of water used with soap would be a factor in that.

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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

The Basket said:


> I would like to read something which I would find useful.
> 
> The media are saying all sorts which means getting info is biased based on fiction rather than facts.
> 
> ...



Amen to that. Hence my relying on the ProMED daily updates - information from recognized medical sources with comments on suspect information from countries like China and Iran


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Yep. We are almost 1000kms from the nearest case and some people here have gone nuts as well. No T.P. or baby food on the shelves



40 km for me (24 miles). Idiot went to Bali for a holiday and bought it back then went to work for over a week before showing symptoms. Fortunately I have not been to that dentist.


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## gumbyk (Mar 15, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> The risk is real if appropriate measures are not in place and the issue comes with healthcare resources. Yes most people have mild illnesses and that’s the end of it but those that get sick and require intensive treatment at the rate of increase seen in some places there is no chance the systems can cope with it.
> 
> For instance there are only around 1 million intensive care bed in the US if we take based on Italy and China so far that around 10% of cases may need intensive care out that in perspective with regards to the possibilities. This does not account for the other conditions that may need the care but can’t get it. Anaesthetists and Intensivists are very worried. It may get to the stage of mass casualty triage and medicine if need outstrips the availability of services. Follow the guidelines guys and stay safe.
> 
> Being on the frontline I’m wary of what may still be ahead of us.


That's why in New Zealand, the Government is pushing the reason for the restrictions isn't preventing the virus getting here, its about smoothing the infection curve so that the medical system isn't overwhelmed. Best case scenario is that by the time it gets established here, there's a vaccine; but it WILL get here.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> To quote the American Society for Microbiology (EBD is ethanol-based disinfectants, AHR is Antiseptic Hand Rubbing using alcohol solutions, IAV is influenza A virus , and yes they are different viruses and the Covid-19 is more aggressive but the subject is the effectiveness of alcohol solutions for virus prevention)
> 
> * IAV in mucus remained active despite 120 s of AHR; *however, *IAV in saline was completely inactivated within 30 s*.
> Due to the low rate of diffusion/convection because of the physical properties of mucus as a hydrogel, *the time required for the ethanol concentration to reach an IAV inactivation level and thus for EBDs to completely inactivate IAV was approximately eight times longer in mucus than in saline. *
> ...



this is the article Towards Better Hand Hygiene for Flu Prevention

"Washing hands with an antiseptic soap, they found, deactivated the virus within 30 seconds "

EDIT, the article talking of flu virus in mucus, not of corona virus in droplet


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The UK is now in fully Henny Penny mode, the government is asked why they are not doing every thing that all other countries are doing. I am off to tell the king myself



On a brighter note these are doing the rounds here

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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> On a brighter note these are doing the rounds here
> 
> View attachment 573572
> 
> ...


Many a true word said in jest, there is a lot of national stereotype/ characteristics involved in the various states reactions which all claim to be based on science. They are certainly not the same or science driven.

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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> this is the article Towards Better Hand Hygiene for Flu Prevention
> 
> "Washing hands with an antiseptic soap, they found, deactivated the virus within 30 seconds "



Thank you Vincenzo - I could not find that or another similar one that is on my work computer but not here at home.


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> That's why in New Zealand, the Government is pushing the reason for the restrictions isn't preventing the virus getting here, its about smoothing the infection curve so that the medical system isn't overwhelmed. Best case scenario is that by the time it gets established here, there's a vaccine; but it WILL get here.



The Kiwis seem to be doing a good job of mitigation - unlike Australia where they allowed all sorts of close proximity mass gatherings like church and football until today but warned everyone on Thursday. That naturally caused sell out crowds because lots of people were suddenly desperate to go to a live event before those events go crowd free. Sheesh

As a result of one big mistake NZ has its first case - a mongrel from Townsville who flew to NZ to beat the Kiwi warning that no one would be allowed in without 14 day quarantine starting today. What makes this even worse is the mongrel had been tested for Covid-19 in Townsville and then flew out before getting his results. I hope the hotel where he is quarantined are giving him massive extra fees for security and for the extra precautions they must take to protect their staff and customers from this $%^ and his stupidity

The Kiwis, and the Aussies should have taken a leaf out of Spain's playbook. They turned flights back to where they came from by putting in place an immediate requirement for isolation.


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## gumbyk (Mar 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> The Kiwis seem to be doing a good job of mitigation - unlike Australia where they allowed all sorts of close proximity mass gatherings like church and football until today but warned everyone on Thursday. That naturally caused sell out crowds because lots of people were suddenly desperate to go to a live event before those events go crowd free. Sheesh
> 
> As a result of one big mistake NZ has its first case - a mongrel from Townsville who flew to NZ to beat the Kiwi warning that no one would be allowed in without 14 day quarantine starting today. What makes this even worse is the mongrel had been tested for Covid-19 in Townsville and then flew out before getting his results.
> 
> The Kiwis, and the Aussies should have taken a leaf out of Spain's playbook. They turned flights back to where they came from by putting in place an immediate requirement for isolation.


That idiot wasn't our first case, somewhere around #7 I think. Hopefully he gets treated like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/trav...-he-had-pending-test-airline-banned-him-life/


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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> That idiot wasn't our first case, somewhere around #7 I think. Hopefully he gets treated like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/trav...-he-had-pending-test-airline-banned-him-life/



Yes. It is a pity that all airlines do not share a banned passenger list. Unfortunately in many countries the privacy act prevents sharing such information. Maybe this will bring about the change. One operator I worked with nearly 20 years back did have an informal arrangement with some other operators regarding passengers banned for air rage and Dangerous Goods infractions like shipping outbourd motors complete with fuel and oil or shipping lead acid batteries in cardboard boxes identifying them as starter motors.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 15, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I mean either side of the border which is the only thing that really matters, how far is Dallas from the border with Canada?



Distance is less relevant here than you think. Flights, vacation trips, and trucking between Canada and US are a huge factor. It's not concentrated to just the border zones.


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## pbehn (Mar 15, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Distance is less relevant here than you think. Flights, vacation trips, and trucking between Canada and US are a huge factor. It's not concentrated to just the border zones.


My point was originally that if the rate of infection in the population is the same then it doesn't matter about people crossing a border, the border means nothing to the virus.

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## MiTasol (Mar 15, 2020)

Australia's *She'll be right mate *at work. 

America has serious competition for the too little too late gold medal. 

Maybe I am biased but being over 75 with diabetes and leukemia I am in the high risk group and i need a responsible government to take responsible actions. Saying _I am praying for you_ is not taking responsible action.

'It's mind-blowing': This couple flew back from Bali with cold-like symptoms, but no-one has told the other passengers


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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

Ok, a 5.44 earthquake in Ecuador on top of a global pandemic, if one of the three volcanoes I live under goes off I will begin to think it is personal...


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## MiTasol (Mar 16, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> 40 km for me (24 miles). Idiot went to Bali for a holiday and bought it back then went to work for over a week before showing symptoms. Fortunately I have not been to that dentist.



Tomorrows skin cancer removal cancelled as the surgeon has been given a Covid-19 quarantine by a patient. It was an urgent one to redo a surgery that had left some melanoma in the margins. Fortunately not malignant yet but the sooner it is removed the better and the Dr has advised she saw the donor after she saw me.


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## The Basket (Mar 16, 2020)

If you're an introvert nerd this is a blessing.

No sport. No social interaction. No going out. 

I do wonder, if we survive, how society will change after this is over.

We live in interesting times. What happens if schools close? What happens if public transport shuts? What happens if my work closes? What happens if the whole structure of business collapses? Can see insurance and manufacturing take a real hit.

It's no exaggeration to say this is a disaster.


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Which makes it very difficult to determine mortality rates. Some people are nearly asymptomatic.



Exactly. The most extensive testing has been in South Korea and the OVERALL mortality rate is around 1%.

It is much higher for the elderly (70+) and compromised, some figures being bandied about in the 15% area. A few days ago the average age of people dying in Italy was 81. The Italians have done a very good job of keeping the mortality rate in the over 70s to a figure lower than that seen in China, but people are still dying.

I was watching some French news this morning as the British news was doing my head in. It turns out that good old Jacques and Francoise are, in the opinion of the French government, not taking things seriously enough. It was a nice week-end in France and some people had the temerity to go out to parks, anything else that was open, picnic and otherwise enjoy themselves. Why do I feel that the French people are showing greater calm than their own government?

Here in the UK there is even talk of granting the police emergency powers to detain people refusing to self isolate (good idea, cram them all in a police station, I'm sure the police would love that!) or fine them £1000. This would be a classic example of passing a law that it utterly unenforceable. It's also a sign that some people have already lost their minds, maybe a new symptom of the disease?


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## Wayne Little (Mar 16, 2020)

It is being put in place here in South Australia.......The Police will have that power to arrest idiots who do not play ball...


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Wayne Little said:


> It is being put in place here in South Australia.......The Police will have that power to arrest idiots who do not play ball...



But it is unenforceable. There are plenty of legitimate reasons why someone would need to leave their house. Even in Italy pharmacies and supermarkets are still open, so that people can still buy medicines, food and water.

Old Bill - 'Where do you think you are going? This area is in lockdown.'

Supposed ne'er do well - 'I'm just off to Boots to get some Lucozade and Nurofen for me poor old grandma officer.'

Old Bill - 'Right-o, carry on then.'

See what I mean


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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2020)

Agree it's unenforceable. What about people who own dogs but live in apartments? They have to go out at least a couple of times a day just to...well, you know.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree it's unenforceable. What about people who own dogs but live in apartments? They have to go out at least a couple of times a day just to...well, you know.



Maybe that's why people are buying up stocks of toilet paper?


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## rochie (Mar 16, 2020)

Minister has said today.
"Its about being sensible, yes you can go outside for a walk but limit your interaction with others"


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> Minister has said today.
> "Its about being sensible, yes you can go outside for a walk but limit your interaction with others"



Exactly, sensible advice.
Unfortunately you can't legislate or confer emergency powers to make everyone sensible.
In the UK there is STILL panic buying. I asked the Fuhrerin whether there was anything we _needed_ and she just said that the freezer was full. I took that as a no.

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## rochie (Mar 16, 2020)

Exactly, sensible people will end up with nothing and all the numptys will have to much of everything they didnt really need.

Wished we had a bigger dog than my jack Russell, last us longer if we are forced to eat him 


Just kidding, will eat the wife first, i like the dog !

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## Marcel (Mar 16, 2020)

stona said:


> But it is unenforceable. There are plenty of legitimate reasons why someone would need to leave their house. Even in Italy pharmacies and supermarkets are still open, so that people can still buy medicines, food and water.
> 
> Old Bill - 'Where do you think you are going? This area is in lockdown.'
> 
> ...


I heard from someone in Italy, the get a permit to go out once for shopping and have to show it when asked.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2020)

Put this on the Quotes and Jokes thread...but it bears repeating here:

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## Elmas (Mar 16, 2020)

In Italy the Comune di Medicina closes for Co-vid19.


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## Elmas (Mar 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I heard from someone in Italy, the get a permit to go out once for shopping and have to show it when asked.



True. Autorities are trying to convince people to stay home and, if to no avail, more strict measures will be taken.


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I heard from someone in Italy, the get a permit to go out once for shopping and have to show it when asked.



I don't know if that is the case or not, but it won't happen in the UK. There is no infrastructure to establish such a system, and nobody has even suggested it. Who administers it? Where do you go to get a permit? It's a ridiculous and massive over reaction to an admittedly serious problem. 

People would just ignore it. If they need to buy supplies they will. They are not going to sit at home and starve.

Common sense will prevail.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2020)

I don't think Italy is any better placed to implement such an infrastructure. Then again, it's not hard to do these days. Our train service here in Germany uses one-time use QR codes as for rail fares purchased using the internet and cell phones. A similar capability could be set up relatively quickly and, since there's no billing involved, should be relatively straightforward to administer. Granted, it cuts out those citizens who aren't connected to the internet but I'm sure they have family members or carers who can do the shopping run for them, providing the purpose of the trip is clearly identified on the virtual pass.


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

It won't happen.

The UK government is planning long term. It expects the difficult situation to continue into next spring.

People can not be expected to lock themselves up for significant parts of the year.

This is the UK government's position and this is what it is planning for. It is not panicking or giving in to populist and unqualified pressure as some seem to be doing.

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Notice the qualifications of those making these predictions. They are not internet warriors, nor do they hold degrees in journalism. They are the best experts in the relevant fields that we have.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 16, 2020)

Elmas said:


> True. Autorities are trying to convince people to stay home and, if to no avail, more strict measures will be taken.



Actually you don't need a permit, only you need a write declare that you go out for one of allowed needs

p.s. stona there are around 165k hospital beds in UK? so where you put the others?


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## Elmas (Mar 16, 2020)

stona said:


> It won't happen.
> 
> The UK government is planning long term. It expects the difficult situation to continue into next spring.
> 
> ...





Vincenzo said:


> Actually you don't need a permit, only you need a write declare that you go out for one of allowed needs
> 
> p.s. stona there are around 165k hospital beds in UK? so where you put the others?



Exactly. You don't have to "ask" a permit from the Autorities but you have to declare, in writing, why you are going out of the house and where you are going.
No problems to go to a supermarket close to your house but , if you have not a valid reason to be out of your home, you could be prosecuted.
Certainly I think that in U.K., where I.D. cards don't exit, it is very difficult to enforce something similar.


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Actually you don't need a permit, only you need a write declare that you go out for one of allowed needs
> 
> p.s. stona there are around 165k hospital beds in UK? so where you put the others?


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Actually you don't need a permit, only you need a write declare that you go out for one of allowed needs
> 
> p.s. stona there are around 165k hospital beds in UK? so where you put the others?



There are far fewer critical care beds than that, less than 4,000 in England. I don't know about the rest of the UK, but I'd be surprised if the combined total was more than England's.

The reason for asking older people to self isolate is to attempt to slow the rate of infection in the segment of the population most likely to require that sort of care. Younger and healthy people rarely require hospital treatment and can usually recover at home. There is a good chance that I have already done just that, though I will not now be tested.

Obviously, if close to 8 million people require hospitalisation over the next 14-18 months there will be a shortfall in hospital beds of all types.


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## Elmas (Mar 16, 2020)

https://cdn-static.dagospia.com/vid...e_di_necrologi_in_un_mese_video_choc-2492.mp4


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## Vincenzo (Mar 16, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CET) Today

deaths 2,158, sicks cumulative 27,980, recoveries 2,749, tests 137,962
lethality rate 7.71%


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## mikewint (Mar 16, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> The most important finding there is that you need 240 seconds of active hand rubbing in the alcohol solution to kill a virus and only 30 seconds in saline. NOBODY keeps their hands wet and rubbing for four whole minutes when using alcohol. Most barely use four seconds and then with only a minute volume of the alcohol solution.



I'd like to know your source for that, as the most important factor that is missing is CONCENTRATION and TYPE. The alcohols need to be MINIMUM 60% and 70% is much better. Secondly Ethyl alcohol (ethanol) is more effective than Isoproply (Isopropanol) but the important factor is the alcohols concentration and rubbing the hands together until all the alcohol evaporates:


Why Is Washing Your Hands So Important, Anyway?
A dive into the science behind why hand-washing and *alcohol-based hand sanitizer work so well*
Katherine J. Wu
SMITHSONIANMAG.COM
MARCH 6, 2020

Soap can incapacitate SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses that have an outer coating called an envelope, which helps the pathogens latch onto and invade new cells. Viral envelopes and soap molecules both contain fatty substances that tend to interact with each other when placed in close proximity, breaking up the envelopes and incapacitating the pathogen. “Basically, the viruses become unable to infect a human cell,” Permar says.

Alcohol-based hand sanitizers also target these vulnerable viral envelopes, but in a slightly different way. While soap physically dismantles the envelope using brute force, alcohol changes the envelope’s chemical properties, making it less stable and more permeable to the outside world, says Benhur Lee, a microbiologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. (Note that “alcohol” here means a chemical like ethanol or isopropyl alcohol—not a beverage like vodka, which contains only some ethanol.)

Alcohol also can penetrate deep into the pathogen’s interior, wreaking havoc on proteins throughout the virus. (Importantly, not all viruses come with outer envelopes. Those that don’t, like the viruses that cause HPV and polio, won’t be susceptible to soap, and to some extent alcohol, in the same way.)

Hand sanitizers made without alcohol—like some marketed as “baby-safe” or “natural”—won’t have the same effect. *The CDC recommends searching for a product with at least 60 percent alcohol content—the minimum concentration found to be effective in past studies. (Some water is necessary to unravel the pathogen’s proteins, so 100 percent alcohol isn’t a good option.)*

As with hand-washing, timing matters with sanitizers. *After squirting a dollop onto your palm, rub it all over your hands, front and back, until they’re completely dry*—without wiping them off on a towel, which could keep the sanitizer from finishing its job, Jurado says.,

But hand sanitizers come with drawbacks. For most people, using these products is less intuitive than hand-washing, and the CDC notes that many people don’t follow the instructions for proper application. Hand sanitizers also don’t jettison microbes off skin like soap, which is formulated to lift oily schmutz off surfaces, Akusobi says.
“Soap emulsifies things like dirt really well,” he says. “When you have a dirty plate, you don’t want to use alcohol—that would help sterilize it, but not clean it.”
Similarly, anytime the grit is visible on your hands, don’t grab the hand sanitizer; only a full 20 seconds (or more) of scrubbing with soapy water will do. All told, hand sanitizer “should not be considered a replacement for soap and water,” Lee says. “If I have access to soap and water, I will use it.”

Internet Myth: A top Chinese respiratory expert advised people to rinse their mouths with salt water to prevent infection. This “cure” was shared widely across social media. However, it was debunked by other experts.

There are several myths about measures which could help protect you from contracting coronavirus.

A recent internet claim is that rinsing your nose with salt water could help protect you. There is only limited evidence to suggest it actually helps. But some swear by rinsing their nose with salt water as a way of recovering more quickly from the common cold.

The NHS said: “There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with salt water protects you from coronavirus and expert Zhong Nanshan, China’s senior medical official told CTV News: *“No present findings have suggested that saline water can kill the new coronavirus.”*


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## stona (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. (CET) Today
> 
> deaths 2,158, sicks cumulative 27,980, recoveries 2,749, tests 137,962
> lethality rate 7.71%



The problem with that figure is that the number of infected people is _much, much higher_ than the 27,980 reported. 

Epidemiologists in the UK estimated that the total number of infected people was _20 to 50 times higher_ than reported during the containment phase here (when all people reporting symptoms were tested and their contacts traced).

South Korea has done the most testing per capita and has a mortality rate of around 1%.

The UK experts agree, estimating an OVERALL rate of between 0.6% and 1%. It is much higher in elderly and other vulnerable groups.

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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)



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## rochie (Mar 16, 2020)

Will have to see tomorrow but advising against all social contact will probably see hotels numbers plummet !

worrying times


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## MiTasol (Mar 16, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I'd like to know your source for that, as the most important factor that is missing is CONCENTRATION and TYPE. The alcohols need to be MINIMUM 60% and 70% is much better. Secondly Ethyl alcohol (ethanol) is more effective than Isoproply (Isopropanol) but the important factor is the alcohols concentration and rubbing the hands together until all the alcohol evaporates:
> 
> The NHS said: “There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with salt water protects you from coronavirus and expert Zhong Nanshan, China’s senior medical official told CTV News: *“No present findings have suggested that saline water can kill the new coronavirus.”*



Two sources. Both carried out in testing against the influenza viruses. I doubt a process that provides very low protection against the influenza virus will magically kill the Covid-19 virus and there is no evidence on promedmail.org from the International Society for Infectious Diseases that any testing has been carried out specific to Covid-19. Your quote above is the first I have seen that suggests that washing your hands in saline is not effective against Covid-19.

The article on salt water is purely for hand washing. It does not suggest in any way that rinsing your mouth or nose with saline will be of any benefit. Does your quote apply to using salt water to wash hands or using water to gargle or irrigate your nose as these are two very different processes.

*EDIT - the two links below are not showing as links on my computer but they are acting as links.*

Situations Leading to Reduced Effectiveness of Current Hand Hygiene against Infectious Mucus from Influenza Virus-Infected Patients 

Towards Better Hand Hygiene for Flu Prevention 

As *

 Vincenzo
*says these articles are _talking of flu virus in mucus, not of corona virus in droplet _but the virus in the mucus and virus in the droplet will both resist disinfection in a similar manner and until someone publishes a paper in a respected medical journal or website that is specific to this coronavirus it is the best information available.


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## MiTasol (Mar 16, 2020)

Australia's_ She'll be right _government in action.

Most overseas countries limit groups to between 5 and 50 people - Australia started with a limit of 300 and within hours changed it UP to 500.

'That's rubbish': Expert hits out at Government's COVID-19 response on Q+A

Of course this is the Prime Minister who refused to talk to the large group of fire experts last October who were clamouring for a meeting with him because it was so evident to them that we were headed for a horror fire season. Then he had the gall to say* nobody told me. *

There are none so ill informed as those who refuse to meet with those that know.


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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

Cant be that bad, the Jebus people support the guy, and they are the nicest, informed and most moral and ethical people around...


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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

Cases in the Southamerican countries that actually do some testing doubled or nearly tripled overnight, most enacted EU-style shutdowns over the weekend, here we go...

...except in Brazil, they are following the US in their "nothing to see here" defense in spite of having sick people in their own govt cabinet.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 16, 2020)

stona said:


> The problem with that figure is that the number of infected people is _much, much higher_ than the 27,980 reported.
> 
> Epidemiologists in the UK estimated that the total number of infected people was _20 to 50 times higher_ than reported during the containment phase here (when all people reporting symptoms were tested and their contacts traced).
> 
> ...



true the actual number of infected is higher 
if is true that in Italy we had tested less of south Korea, 138k vs 275k, but had tested much more of UK, 45k
imho 20 to 50 times higher is too high for Italy


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## pbehn (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> true the actual number of infected is higher
> if is true that in Italy we had tested less of south Korea, 138k vs 275k, but had tested much more of UK, 45k
> imho 20 to 50 times higher is too high for Italy


The tests used at present only tell if an infected person is infected, so if you don't actually have the Covid 19 infection at the time it doesn't show, even if you have had it, it is pointless testing people who are not showing symptoms.


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## gumbyk (Mar 16, 2020)

It's NOT about the fatality rate, it's the hospitalisation rate. If your hospitals are overwhelmed, then other survivable medical events suddenly become fatal.
Had a car accident? Sorry, no room at the ER
Had a heart attack? Sorry, no doctors available to see you now, come back tomorrow.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 16, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The tests used at present only tell if an infected person is infected, so if you don't actually have the Covid 19 infection at the time it doesn't show, even if you have had it, it is pointless testing people who are not showing symptoms.



i'm not sure of understand you, but if you tell that symptomless people test are negative this is wrong, a Vo (a venetian municipality in the original red zone) most of EDIT "tested" positive are symptomless


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## pbehn (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> i'm not sure of understand you, but if you tell that symptomless people test are negative this is wrong, a Vo (a venetian municipality in the original red zone) most of positive are symptomless


Discussed today by the CMO in UK tests at present are unreliable for antibodies. I know Vo, I worked for years in Dalmine near Bergamo.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I'd like to know your source for that



Says the master of copy and paste. The irony is amazing.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2020)

And Boeing sent us all home today. Told us to take everything we need to work from home until further notice.


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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The tests used at present only tell if an infected person is infected, so if you don't actually have the Covid 19 infection at the time it doesn't show, even if you have had it, it is pointless testing people who are not showing symptoms.



Sorry, but that is the difference between Korea and Italy, Koreans tested anyone suspect of contact with a symptomatic person, Italy only tested the sick, at least at first, so Korea was able to identify and stop asymptomatic people from going around spreading the disease while, well, half the world is now under quarantine because we only tested people who showed symptoms when most actually didnt.


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## MiTasol (Mar 16, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Cant be that bad, the Jebus people support the guy, and they are the nicest, informed and most moral and ethical people around...



I would love to debate that but for very good reasons religion is forbidden on this forum. *Maybe *the moderators will allow these two cartoons - but they may well remove them.

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## fubar57 (Mar 16, 2020)

...and here are the idiots on eBay that bought all the TP




​...and sadly, people are bidding for it


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## pbehn (Mar 16, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Sorry, but that is the difference between Korea and Italy, Koreans tested anyone suspect of contact with a symptomatic person, Italy only tested the sick, at least at first, so Korea was able to identify and stop asymptomatic people from going around spreading the disease while, well, half the world is now under quarantine because we only tested people who showed symptoms when most actually didnt.


Italy had particular problems, it has a large Chinese community who went home for the Chinese new year, the North of Italy is a big holiday area for skiing at this time of year, oh and Italy being in the EU means it doesn't really have any control of people going in and out. The first cases reported in UK either came from China or Italy on holiday.


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## MiTasol (Mar 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> ...and here are the idiots on eBay that bought all the TP ..and sadly, people are bidding for it



What to me is even worse is that the morons bidding have not looked at the postage they will pay - C$104.01 on that single roll. These bidders need a *mental *checkup


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## Vincenzo (Mar 16, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Italy had particular problems, it has a large Chinese community who went home for the Chinese new year, the North of Italy is a big holiday area for skiing at this time of year, oh and Italy being in the EU means it doesn't really have any control of people going in and out. The first cases reported in UK either came from China or Italy on holiday.



The Chinese community in Italy is around 300k is smaller that in France or UK, in Italy there are not (or better was not some days ago) infected from chinese with exclusion of the first 3 sick, 2 chinese tourist and one italian back from Wuhan but these have not spread the infection. The infection was spread in Codogno from a italian, virus analyses show this was a derivative of that of a german manager

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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I would love to debate that but for very good reasons religion is forbidden on this forum. *Maybe *the moderators will allow these two cartoons - but they may well remove them.



Oops... my bad.

Lets just say, that ANY form of intervention of ANY RELIGION in the political life of a country is dangerous. Nothing good has ever come out of that.

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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> On a positive note, women got to celebrate their day in Santiago de Chile with a 100.000+ march:
> 
> View attachment 573564
> 
> ...



Remember this? Well, turns out a week later cases in Chile jumped from 75 on Sunday to 156 on Monday, who would have thought? 

Current projection is 40.000 cases by April...


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## pbehn (Mar 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> The Chinese community in Italy is around 300k is smaller that in France or UK, in Italy there are not (or better was not some days ago) infected from chinese with exclusion of the first 3 sick, 2 chinese tourist and one italian back from Wuhan but these have not spread the infection. The infection was spread in Codogno from a italian, virus analyses show this was a derivative of that of a german manager


Within days of the first traceable cases in the UK we were getting untraceable cases. Many more people have it without knowing than show up in the figures.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> It's NOT about the fatality rate, it's the hospitalisation rate. If your hospitals are overwhelmed, then other survivable medical events suddenly become fatal.
> Had a car accident? Sorry, no room at the ER
> Had a heart attack? Sorry, no doctors available to see you now, come back tomorrow.



I wish more people would use their brain and get this.


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## MIflyer (Mar 16, 2020)

Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health says the United States has developed a vaccine for the coronavirus, COVID-19, in record time. Fauci made the statement at the White House update on the coronavirus. He told reporters that the first vaccine was given in Seattle on Monday.
"The vaccine candidate that was given the first injection for the first person took place today. You might recall that when we first started I said it would be two to three months and if we did that, that would be the fastest we've ever gone in obtaining the sequence to being able to do the Phase 1 trial. This has been now 65 days, which I believe is the record."

They say we are to regard this situation as a war. It appears that the IJN bombed Pearl Harbor and then their ships were all sunk by a B-29 built in Seattle dropping an atomic bomb as they entered Tokyo Bay on the return trip.


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## JAG88 (Mar 16, 2020)

Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine | DW | 15.03.2020 

Piece of s...


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine | DW | 15.03.2020
> 
> Piece of s...


Yeah I read that and of true it would really piss me off. Don’t know if it is and it borderlines politics so let’s not go there, shall we?


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## Zipper730 (Mar 17, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> ...and panic sets in........


Not really, what I had in January/February almost certainly wasn't the virus: Symptoms were fairly quickly arrested with azithromycin, something that kills bacteria, but generally doesn't do anything to viruses. Secondly, I had a chest X-ray and they didn't find any signs of pneumonia at all. I had acute bronchitis, and fever, chills, and stuff, though.

That said, fear not -- I'm rather fatigued, and don't feel like going out.



The Basket said:


> If you're an introvert nerd this is a blessing.


I'm kind of an introverted ambivert. I'm fine on my own, but social situations don't bother me a lot.



stona said:


> Exactly. The most extensive testing has been in South Korea and the OVERALL mortality rate is around 1%.


And that's because they probably found cases that are either asymptomatic or mild.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yeah I read that and of true it would really piss me off. Don’t know if it is and it borderlines politics so let’s not go there, shall we?



It should not surprise you though. No morals. But I agree, let’s not go there.

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## stona (Mar 17, 2020)

The UK's response is laid out here for anyone bothered to read it.

Most 'internet warriors' are completely unconcerned with facts or expert opinion, spending most of their effort trying to score political points on the back of a medical emergency.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine | DW | 15.03.2020
> 
> Piece of s...


I don't think this story is true( although I don't know for sure of course) as they just started a covid 19 vaccine trial yesterday in the US and they said it had been in the works for I think 65 days. So timeline wise it wouldn't make much sense.
Also although I wouldn't put it past some politicians in general( not mentioning any names, parties, , or wings so as not to be political here) the incentive for the implied action makes no sense. I.e. to keep the vaccine for one country at the exclusion of the rest of the world would guarantee the person in question would be seen as a vilan worldwide, including by most in that country.
,

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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

Just had an unsettling though. The vaccine, if it even works( sometimes they don't ) wont be ready for the masses for 12 to 18 months and the virus, while it may subside in the warmer weather, is unlikely to be eradicated completely. Are we going through all this again come November?


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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2020)

Problem is that more people may die from lack of services than from actual virus. So if they go overboard then that could cause a bigger disaster than just letting virus run its course.

The idea of everything shutting down for a year is total nonsense. No food no services no electricity no clean water no fuel no gas. Yeah that's just going to work out fine.

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## stona (Mar 17, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Just had an unsettling though. The vaccine, if it even works( sometimes they don't ) wont be ready for the masses for 12 to 18 months and the virus, while it may subside in the warmer weather, is unlikely to be eradicated completely. Are we going through all this again come November?



The UK model shows another peak in the autumn/winter of this year and into 2021, after the summer and with 'containment' released. If other countries are modelling this far ahead they are not making the results public as far as I know (happy to be corrected). Why that would be is anyone's guess.

I've pretty much resigned myself to an extremely lean year due to the nature of my business which involves crowds, the larger the better. I can take it, but some of my younger friends and colleagues, many with young families, mortgages etc. will be in for a tough time. Daughter number one's partner is a DJ/producer and already much of his live work in the near future has been cancelled. Radio fees (he is a regular with Craig Charles) will not support a family. The live work is his principle income stream, meaning they are now a one income family with very young children and a mortgage to pay. They are _extremely fortunate_ that they will be able to depend on family support (from both sides) if push really does come to shove. They will not find themselves on the street, with their house in the hands of a bank, nor with a mountain of debt. Many families, through absolutely no fault of their own, are not in such a position.

There are some very difficult times ahead.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 17, 2020)

Tough for everyone. As a retiree, I'm sitting here watching a major source of my income for the next 25 years shrink by 35% since all this started. And it's far from over.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2020)

If in the end it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I'm going to be seriousyly p*ssed.

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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I don't think this story is true( although I don't know for sure of course) as they just started a covid 19 vaccine trial yesterday in the US and they said it had been in the works for I think 65 days. So timeline wise it wouldn't make much sense.
> Also although I wouldn't put it past some politicians in general( not mentioning any names, parties, , or wings so as not to be political here) the incentive for the implied action makes no sense. I.e. to keep the vaccine for one country at the exclusion of the rest of the world would guarantee the person in question would be seen as a vilan worldwide, including by most in that country.
> ,



To have a cure to sell is good, to have all the cures for sale is better if you want to squeeze money off sick people, it is very simple... and old.

If all you care about is money and have mindless unconditional followers, who cares about perception? 

Moreover, if you own the cure everyone has no choice but to buy, hate you or not.


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

Our government made their strategy clear. They want to build a 'buffer' of resistant people, by letting the virus slowly circulate through the less vulnerable people (my interpretation of their words). The idea is that they need 60% of the population to be immune in order to protect the vulnerable people. 
By my calculation: That means that 70% of the dutch people should get the virus. Given that around 20% of the infected people need intensive care, it means that around 2 million people should be hospitalized over the course of the epidemic. Given the amount of the available beds, it means that they are counting on a duration of 2 years for this epidemic. 

OMG!


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I don't think this story is true( although I don't know for sure of course) as they just started a covid 19 vaccine trial yesterday in the US and they said it had been in the works for I think 65 days. So timeline wise it wouldn't make much sense.
> ,


Actually it is, the German Government confirmed it. I will save the political discussion for Facebook.

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## stona (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Our government made their strategy clear. They want to build a 'buffer' of resistant people, by letting the virus slowly circulate through the less vulnerable people (my interpretation of their words). The idea is that they need 60% of the population to be immune in order to protect the vulnerable people.
> By my calculation: That means that 70% of the dutch people should get the virus. Given that around 20% of the infected people need intensive care, it means that around 2 million people should be hospitalized over the course of the epidemic. Given the amount of the available beds, it means that they are counting on a duration of 2 years for this epidemic.
> 
> OMG!



The UK government estimates nearly 8 million may require hospitalisation in the next 12-14 months, which far exceeds capacity. The _lowest_ estimates for deaths caused _directly_ by the virus are in excess of 300,000. If the health system is overwhelmed then there will obviously be further deaths caused _indirectly_ by the virus.

Obviously all governments are hoping for an effective vaccine, which will just produce the much misunderstood herd immunity without a large section (70%-80%) of the population having to develop immunity by surviving infection.

If the virus follows the path of similar organisms it will evolve to have a lower mortality rate naturally. For reasons not yet properly understood it already produces relatively mild symptoms in the majority of people infected. In the UK one premiership footballer (an obviously fit young man) reckoned he was feeling fine a few days after his infection was confirmed. He wasn't allowed out of isolation though! I suppose he can spend his time counting his money


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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Actually it is, the German Government confirmed it. I will save the political discussion for Facebook.


Well if it is true that would be really disturbing. I would think it would be the moral imperative for whatever country comes up eith a vaccine to share it with the world free of charge or at the very least free of profit( at cost). Doesn't make sense to me......but then so many thing don't.


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## rochie (Mar 17, 2020)

this morning we had a lady call the hotel to ask exactly what we were doing to prevent herself and her husband who are both over 70 from getting Covid-19 when they arrive tonight for their short break !

pretty sure the government told you its important to stay at home if your in an at risk group.

we are doing all we can to stay open and follow procedures to lower the risk of passing anything on but if your going to ignore medical advice, your putting yourself at risk.

i am shitting bricks that i have a job to go to in a few weeks time and we dont have a shut down, financial help that is getting talked about now, will not even pay our rent never mind household bills etc.

very worried right now


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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2020)

Many companies may collapse. This is the very top of the iceberg.


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

French minister Olivier Véran put on twitter that you should avoid using medicines like Ibuprofen ( NSAID medicines) as they would make it easier for the virus to infect you. This is actually not a fact. What is true that Ibuprofen is not efficient countering the symptoms (being fever), but that paracetamol is much more effective.



> The Council on Hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology wish to highlight *the lack of any evidence* supporting harmful effect of ACE-I and ARB in the context of the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak.
> The Council on Hypertension* strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACEi or ARBs should be discontinued because of the Covid-19 infection.*


Position Statement of the ESC Council on Hypertension on ACE-Inhibitors and Angi

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2020)

According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
That's a death rate of less than 1%.

That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.

Seems we should just employ common sense more than shutting down the world.

South Korea: coronavirus infections, recovered, and test cases 2020 | Statista


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
> That's a death rate of less than 1%.
> 
> That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.
> ...



No you actually need to shut it down.

I know Fox and Friends is not talking about this in the morning, but social distancing has nothing to do with death rates and fatalities. It is about not overburdening the Doctors and hospitals, so that those who need help can get it (our very own Dr. here has even pointed that out for us). It is about slowing down the spread, so that the system is not overburdened.

Take the US for example, even if only 1% of infected require intensive care, we do not have the capacity to treat them. We do not have the ICU beds. We do not have the ventilators.

Then what about others that might require intensive care. Someone is in a car wreck...

“Sorry, we cannot help you because people in this world are not capable of being inconvenienced a lil.”

If anything this virus is teaching us how short sighted and narrow minded humanity is, and how selfish and Me first the world has become.

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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
> That's a death rate of less than 1%.
> 
> That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.
> ...



When Korea noticed the Chinese had yet another virus outbreak the reacted rapidly, setup test production, tracked and tested all people exposed, sent txt messages warning people of where and when infected people had been so the people exposed can have themselves tested...

...if your government didnt do all of that that, then dont fool yourself looking at Korea, look at Italy, they only tested sick people, the asymptomatic were allowed to roam around unchecked so the virus spread. Did your country setup extensive testing? No? Italy has a 7% mortality rate...

And yes, very low mortality rate, trouble is it is highly contagious and you can expect 60% of the population to get it, and get it quick, which means hospitals will collapse and cause more deaths due to unavailability of care.

Hope you dont have elderly relatives btw, since that 1% death rate is overall, but for the elderly and sick people it is around 14%.

But hey, the old are already on their way out, maybe we should just like... let them go... walk towards the light pops! Right?


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## fubar57 (Mar 17, 2020)

What is wrong with you?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

Unless you show symptoms or are ordered by your Dr. you cannot be tested here. We waited too late to start acting.

still no need to panic, it only makes things worse.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> What is wrong with you?



Heh?


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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
> That's a death rate of less than 1%.
> 
> That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.
> ...



To be crystal clear.

That 1% is of people who get the flu AND show symptoms.

The Wuhan virus is very different, most people show mild or no symptoms at all, Korea was ready and tested EXTENSIVELY catching even asymptomatic cases, they therefore had a very large pool of mild cases and a low mortality rate.

But most countries treated the Wuhan virus LIKE THE FLU, they only tested the sick people, the ones showing symptoms, LIKE WITH THE FLU, and in that context the virus has close to an 8% mortality rate.

So those are the numbers you have to compare 1% vs 8%, whoever told you otherwise is playing you for a fool.


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## pbehn (Mar 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unless you show symptoms or are ordered by your Dr. you cannot be tested here. We waited too late to start acting.
> 
> still no need to panic, it only makes things worse.


If you have no symptoms what would a test show, at the moment no test reliably tells you if you have had it and recovered. If you have a test and its clear you can still catch it the next day.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

pbehn said:


> If you have no symptoms what would a test show, at the moment no test reliably tells you if you have had it and recovered. If you have a test and its clear you can still catch it the next day.



You can be asymptomatic, but test positive for 14 days.


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## pbehn (Mar 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You can be asymptomatic, but test positive for 14 days.


 Estimates on that vary, it has been floating about for months.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Estimates on that vary, it has been floating about for months.



And people were not being tested...

people however without symptoms are testing positive.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sc...tagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms/amp


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

Drummer of my band is ill now. Just waiting until I get it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Drummer of my band is ill now. Just waiting until I get it.



I’m surprised I don’t have it. People are nasty. So many people at work coughing and wheezing, not washing their hands. 

I’m glad they sent us home to work from home.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> To be crystal clear.
> 
> That 1% is of people who get the flu AND show symptoms.



That is not what the data I posted stated, what is your source {not being a smart*ss, but I really want to know as I let facts and data drive my thinking]. 



JAG88 said:


> So those are the numbers you have to compare 1% vs 8%, whoever told you otherwise is playing you for a fool.



I'm pretty sure WHO, JAMA and NEJM are not playing anybody as a fool, they are making their comments based on the information they have on hand and based on past experiances.

*"World Health Organization *(WHO) officials on Tuesday estimated that the global mortality rate for new coronavirus infections, known as COVID-19, is about 3.4%, which is higher than the 2% officials previously had reported.


WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the 3.4% mortality rate for COVID-19 is higher than the flu's global mortality rate. "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected," he said. However, WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris said COVID-19's updated mortality rate is a "crudely calculated" snapshot based on the growing number of cases outside of China and is expected to "change over time, and vary from place to place."


Public health experts have warned that discrepancies in how different countries report individual cases and determine how contagious the new coronavirus is makes it hard to determine a precise global case count, and as a result, we don't yet have an accurate mortality rate. For instance, research published last week in _JAMA_ suggests the mortality rate for the virus currently is around 2%, while a report published Friday in the _New England Journal of Medicine_ (_NEJM_) estimated the mortality rate is 1.4%.


_*According to an editorial published in NEJM by Anthony Fauci and Clifford Lane from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and CDC director Robert Redfield, the true death rate for the coronavirus could end up being below 1%, which would make it similar to the death rate seen in a severe flu season."*_

Is the new coronavirus deadlier than the flu?


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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

Japanese coronavirus patient tests positive a SECOND time | Daily Mail Online

If this gets confirmed, many govt assumptions are going down the drain.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
> That's a death rate of less than 1%.
> 
> That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.



not the lethality rate of standard flu in less that 1 per mille


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## Vincenzo (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Japanese coronavirus patient tests positive a SECOND time | Daily Mail Online
> 
> If this gets confirmed, many govt assumptions are going down the drain.



unlucky this is not a news, already from China came news you can get it again but there were some hope in test wrong

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## mikewint (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> paracetamol is much more effective.


Marcel, you had me for a bit with that name. Here in the US it is called *Acetaminophen *or under the brand name TYLENOL. Got to be very careful about overdosing as it has some very negative affects on the liver.


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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> That is not what the data I posted stated, what is your source {not being a smart*ss, but I really want to know as I let facts and data drive my thinking].



But it hasnt, clearly.

You stated wuhan has under 1% and that puts it in the range of the FLU. You did.

People who dont get flu symptoms dont get tested, why would they? Only symptomatic people get tested for a well known sickness, otherwise you lack a reason to do so.



> I'm pretty sure WHO, JAMA and NEJM are not playing anybody as a fool, they are making their comments based on the information they have on hand and based on past experiances.



Are you sure? The WHO is in CHINA'S POCKET, they have consistently and unabashedly PRAISED the country which started and covered up this whole mess, after all, its head is a communist from Ethiopia with old links to China...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-china-intl-hnk/index.html

*



"World Health Organization

Click to expand...

*


> (WHO) officials on Tuesday estimated that the global mortality rate for new coronavirus infections, known as COVID-19, is about 3.4%, which is higher than the 2% officials previously had reported.
> 
> 
> WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the 3.4% mortality rate for COVID-19 is higher than the flu's global mortality rate. "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected," he said. However, WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris said COVID-19's updated mortality rate is a "crudely calculated" snapshot based on the growing number of cases outside of China and is expected to "change over time, and vary from place to place."
> ...



That is the global average and that includes the dubious Chinese numbers and the good Korean ones AND ASYMPTOMATIC cases, you do understand that, right?

You live in the US, the US hasnt done crap regarding prevention or testing, basically you are following Italy's pattern... what makes you think the US is behaving anything like Korea in this case to pretend is going to reach Korea's numbers?

The real mortality rate is very likely to be low, that is a given, because the REAL number includes asymptomatic cases, and since those are the bulk the mortality rate is expected to be low.

BUT, since this is HIGHLY contagious to the point 60-70% of the population is expected to get it eventhough they WONT show symptoms, well...

US 330'000.000*65%=214'000.000 people infected

214'000.000*1.4%=3'000.000 dead

Now you can go back to being scared of Muslims and Mexicans.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

Alright everyone tone down the political rhetoric.


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Marcel, you had me for a bit with that name. Here in the US it is called *Acetaminophen *or under the brand name TYLENOL. Got to be very careful about overdosing as it has some very negative affects on the liver.


Yeah, but not as much as both Ibuprofen (iso-butyl-propanoic-phenylic acid) and aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid). Of course any medicine will give you extra health problems if you take too much.


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Alright everyone tone down the political rhetoric.


Ditto from here. Save the political debates for Facebook.

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## JAG88 (Mar 17, 2020)

Sorry, off to read a book...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Ditto from here. Save the political debates for Facebook.



And just to add to this, everyone here can get their point across without being a dick. To everyone involved, don’t get the thread closed a 2nd time because you cannot carry on a civil conversation like an adult.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2020)

Already job losses in the UK.
My gym has closed.
School is about to close.
Crazy.
If the school closed then game over for me. And if it closed for months then all bad.

I always believed that western civilization can end in a few days. So looks like it's on.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Now you can go back to being scared of Muslims and Mexicans.



One more* IGNORANT* statement like that and you're permanently banned!!!! This is EXACTLY what I was talking about earlier in this thread


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2020)

JAG88 said:


> Sorry, off to read a book...



Make it a very long book!!!!!


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## Vincenzo (Mar 17, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 2,503, sicks cumulative 31,506, recoveries 2,941, tests 148,657
lethality rate 7.94%


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. today
> deaths 2,503, sicks cumulative 31,506, recoveries 2,941, tests 148,657
> lethality rate 7.94%



Thanks for the information Vincenzo - stay well! 

Any information about the average age of those who died?


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## pbehn (Mar 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yeah, but not as much as both Ibuprofen (iso-butyl-propanoic-phenylic acid) and aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid). Of course any medicine will give you extra health problems if you take too much.


 The UK are now advising against Ibuprofen for Coronavirus symptoms.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 17, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Any information about the average age of those who died?



was 79.4, calculated on 1014 deaths to 13th march

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

I thought we might learn from this, I guess not. Paid sick leave has been gutted from the Coronavirus relief bill. I don’t understand why a population as well as our leaders are so against this.

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## fubar57 (Mar 17, 2020)

In Canada at the moment


Ontario: 177 confirmed cases, including five cases listed as resolved.
British Columbia: 103 confirmed, including four deaths and five cases listed as resolved.
Alberta: 74 confirmed.
Quebec: 50 confirmed.
Saskatchewan: five presumptive, two confirmed.
New Brunswick: five presumptive, two confirmed.
Manitoba: seven confirmed, one presumptive. 
Canadians quarantined at CFB Trenton: eight confirmed.
Nova Scotia: four presumptive, one confirmed.
Prince Edward Island: one confirmed.
Newfoundland and Labrador: one presumptive.
The four deaths in B.C. all occurred in the same health care facility and now there is a possibility of one death in Ontario

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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> unlucky this is not a news, already from China came news you can get it again but there were some hope in test wrong


For whatever its worth ive heard 3 health care professionals, including one of the Chinese doctors who were on this early on say that it appears a small percentage of the population( one of them said about 2%) doesn't make sufficient antibodies the first time around and can get it again.
I guess thats better than everyone getting it a 2nd time. Hopefully those people, if they do get it again, will make sufficient antibodies the 2nd time around.


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## fubar57 (Mar 17, 2020)

Not sure if this has been posted...https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/china-covid-19-vaccination-1.5500202 What got me was this...

"Details in the Chinese clinical trial registration database show that a Phase 1 test that will examine whether the experimental shot is safe in humans aims to recruit 108 healthy people to take part between March 16 and Dec. 31."


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## pbehn (Mar 17, 2020)

Beyond the medical effects of the virus France yesterday and UK today made unprecedented commitments to spending, hope it works.


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## mikewint (Mar 17, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Any information about the average age of those who died?



Joe, IMHO that age would be/is very misleading as are almost all the stats on this disease. Let's begin with the median & mean age. Any median and mean taken from this skewed curve is essentially useless as the are going to be far far apart. In general older sicker males with preexisting conditions are much more likely to die than their younger healthier females and males for that matter.







The biggest problem and the factor that skews these stats into "best guess" territory is the vast number of unreported mild and asymptomatic cases. Consider a study by the Imperial College of London:





Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease must have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported. Most people infected by COVID-19 are never counted as being infected. That is because, the Imperial College study explains, “the bottom of the pyramid represents the likeliest largest population of those infected with either mild, non‐specific symptoms or who are asymptomatic.” So as you can see, even here more guess work.

The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, stated in his February 28 briefing, “Most people will have a mild disease and get better without needing any special care.” Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported and thus are not part of any statistical study.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Joe, IMHO that age would be/is very misleading as are almost all the stats on this disease. Let's begin with the median & mean age. Any median and mean taken from this skewed curve is essentially useless as the are going to be far far apart. In general older sicker males with preexisting conditions are much more likely to die than their younger healthier females and males for that matter.
> 
> View attachment 573917
> 
> ...



Mike, appreciate all the data you cut and pasted but I was asking Vincenzo about* Italy* (where he lives). I am well aware of how there are a lot of unknowns and skewed statistics. but one thing we do know - the ages of those who died!

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## Airframes (Mar 17, 2020)

Got an e-mail from Imperial War Museum this evening.
As of tonight (17th March) all of their sites, including Duxford, will close until further notice. So I guess no airshows this year which, given the seriousness of the Covid virus, is understandable, and a minor inconvenience anyway, as travel has been restricted, albeit voluntarily at the moment, so not a sensible thing to do, going to mass gatherings.
Some difficult and life-changing times ahead for all of us. 
As I fall into the 'vulnerable' group, due to the RA, I'm one of those who should self-isolate. Going to be tricky, as I'll need to get out to do essential shopping - on-line ordering from supermarkets currently has a two week waiting list, so that's not a viable option, but I'm sure I'll manage.
My thoughts are with those who may or will be affected by the restrictions, and lose income etc and, of course, those in the health services, already stretched, who have to carry on.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2020)

My thoughts are that young children from bad homes can use school as an escape and also get meals.

Now that could be removed and vulnerable children could be more vulnerable. It's just a sad time.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 17, 2020)

The Basket said:


> Many companies may collapse.


Makes sense, it'll have catastrophic effects on the economy.



vikingBerserker said:


> According to below, South Korea has tested 274,504 people, of which 8,236 were positive with 75 deaths.
> That's a death rate of less than 1%.
> 
> That would put it in the same range as the standard flu.


The _mortality rate_ for Influenza is about 0.1% not 1%. This would be something like _9-10% as deadly_. The reason these stats diverge from other nations is that they tested virtually everybody instead of just severe, maybe moderate cases. There are some people who show no symptoms, others fairly mild: These people usually are not tested.


> Seems we should just employ common sense more than shutting down the world


While I do think people are greatly overreacting to this, and spreading a great degree of fear and panic: This isn't a matter to simply ignore.



mikewint said:


> Marcel, you had me for a bit with that name. Here in the US it is called *Acetaminophen *or under the brand name TYLENOL. Got to be very careful about overdosing as it has some very negative affects on the liver.


Yeah 2 x 325 mg every 4-6 hours is the maximum recommended dose.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 17, 2020)

As for the other things that are a troubling pattern

There are people who have been infected, recovered, then got infected again. I'm not sure if this is due to mutations, or due to the fact that the body simply does not develop an immunity to this.
Vaccines: It takes awhile to make a vaccine because of safety requirements. An infectious-disease specialist could probably whip up one in a day or two, but there's no guarantees as to how safe it'd be.


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## fubar57 (Mar 17, 2020)

Three more deaths in B.C. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...-186-cases-of-covid-19-and-7-deaths-1.5500783

"Two of the new deaths in B.C. are connected to the ongoing outbreak at Lynn Valley Care Centre in North Vancouver and the third is a man in his 80s who died in hospital in the Fraser Health region. All four of B.C.'s previous deaths were also connected to the North Vancouver care home"


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2020)

The Basket said:


> My thoughts are that young children from bad homes can use school as an escape and also get meals.
> 
> Now that could be removed and vulnerable children could be more vulnerable. It's just a sad time.



What is sad is that so many children rely on going to school to get a meal. Down in Louisiana where I lived, 50% of all children in the town would only get one meal a day were it not for the school. They even stayed open in the summer time to feed the kids.


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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2020)

Mental health will struggle in the days ahead perhaps increasing suicides.

Anxious people have more to be anxious about such as illness and death of loved ones. Financial issues and job insecurity. Social isolation will be reasons for loneliness and lack of support from friends and family. 

And of course feeling of one's own demise. I don't fear for myself, but worst case scenario is very very bad. I do fear something terrible is brewing.


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## pbehn (Mar 17, 2020)

Germans are panic buying sausages AND cheese. It's the wurst käse scenario!

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## fubar57 (Mar 17, 2020)



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## Crimea_River (Mar 17, 2020)

Well, I thought it was funny. I think he can stay.


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## N4521U (Mar 17, 2020)

We need a Ham Hock emogie!


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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

I can think of a realy bad worst case scenario. Not sure if I should roll this out but here goes. 
If the vaccine is ineffective or the virus is able to mutate like the flu so that said vaccine is only effective some years more than others and some not at all......and it returns yearly like the flu or cold at some point society will be forced to just accept it like the common flu because the alternative would be for the entire world to go on lockdown 4 or 5 months of every year, wich would result in complete economic and resulting societal collapse.
The results would be tens of millions of deaths worldwide every year for a decade or two until the population built up some sort of immunity.
Lets pray that vaccine works and works well.


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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

I should be clear. I don't think the abouve scenario is the most likely outcome but one that does have me a little worried.......perhaps unduly......I hope.


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## gumbyk (Mar 17, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I can think of a realy bad worst case scenario. Not sure if I should roll this out but here goes.
> If the vaccine is ineffective or the virus is able to mutate like the flu so that said vaccine is only effective some years more than others and some not at all......and it returns yearly like the flu or cold at some point society will be forced to just accept it like the common flu because the alternative would be for the entire world to go on lockdown 4 or 5 months of every year, wich would result in complete economic and resulting societal collapse.
> The results would be tens of millions of deaths worldwide every year for a decade or two until the population built up some sort of immunity.
> Lets pray that vaccine works and works well.


The problem is, if its like the common cold or flu, then it could mutate so regularly that people won't develop a natural immunity to it, just like the flu or cold.


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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What is sad is that so many children rely on going to school to get a meal. Down in Louisiana where I lived, 50% of all children in the town would only get one meal a day were it not for the school. They even stayed open in the summer time to feed the kids.


In Los Angeles its 80% of kids that are on free or reduced cost lunch.......Something has gone terribly wrong.


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## michael rauls (Mar 17, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> The problem is, if its like the common cold or flu, then it could mutate so regularly that people won't develop a natural immunity to it, just like the flu or cold.


Well I do have a somewhat positive response to that. Years ago I heard a doctor explain why children get nonstop colds and as you get older you get fewer although they may be more severe.
What he said was that once people have a particular strain of cold you are imune to it. Its just that there are dozens of strains. As you get older you have been exposed to and become immune to more and more strains. 
So after a couple decades society as a whole would develop some degree of immunity to this, which would be a little bit of a silver lining on an otherwise very dark cloud.


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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

The Basket said:


> My thoughts are that young children from bad homes can use school as an escape and also get meals.
> 
> Now that could be removed and vulnerable children could be more vulnerable. It's just a sad time.



That almost falls into the unintended consequences basket like being killed or wounded by friendly fire. To governments everywhere this is just a statistic.

To the victims it is hell on earth


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 18, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Germans are panic buying sausages AND cheese. It's the wurst käse scenario!



This jape is as contagious as the COVID itself!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2020)

Just curious, but why wasn't there this level of concern with the Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Zika or Ebola pandemics?


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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Just curious, but why wasn't there this level of concern with the Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Zika or Ebola pandemics?



Ask yourself these questions - how many people actually died from all those combined and how many have died from Corvid-19 (7171 reported in about 100 days but China and Iran are known to under report). Now you have your answer.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2020)

Half a million for the Swine flu inside of a year and here in California, it's 75, 100, 105, 115, 210 or 300 deaths depending on the source.

There's even supposedly several cases in the county I live in, yet no one knows who these people are and we have a small population here, which I find interesting.


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## Marcel (Mar 18, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Just curious, but why wasn't there this level of concern with the Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Zika or Ebola pandemics?


Well, ebola for one is not airborne. This means you can only get ebola by direct contact. It's not so easy to spread ebola around the world. I can't remember big outbrake of filoviruses outside of Africa, apart from the Marburg incident in Germany. 
Swine-Flu was potentially as big here as Covid-19, but I if remember correctly, we had a vaccine. I remember clearly getting a vaccine for our youngest kid back then.


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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

Canadians on ebay might be nuts but the Australians buying TP on ebay are as moronic as our government who still think groups of 100 are acceptable and who are spending less than 10% per capita of what the major countries and federations like UK, US and EU are. THe Aus dollar has just dropped below US60c which shows that the rest of the world recognize how stupid our government is.

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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

Panic room

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## Vincenzo (Mar 18, 2020)

worldwide go over 8,000 deaths


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Just curious, but why wasn't there this level of concern with the Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Zika or Ebola pandemics?



Most of those did not hit home, some did, but most didn’t. Ebola for instance was contained for the most part to the African continent. Unless it got out of Africa, nobody here was going to care as long as the prices on our goods remain cheap. Otherwise no one in the western world cares one bit what happens to Africa. Sad but a true fact. If it does not directly affect you, why bother? That is the thought process around the world. As for Zika, no one was concerned because as long as you were not pregnant or trying to there was really no risk involved. My wife and I were living in Louisiana during the Zika scare, and were trying to get pregnant with our second child. Louisiana was confirmed to have it, believe me, we were concerned. We also travelled to Europe during that time, an remember at every airport officials walking around taking everyones temperature.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Half a million for the Swine flu inside of a year and here in California, it's 75, 100, 105, 115, 210 or 300 deaths depending on the source.
> 
> There's even supposedly several cases in the county I live in, *yet no one knows who these people are and we have a small population here, which I find interesting.*



Ah, I think I know where this is going...


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## michael rauls (Mar 18, 2020)

I think its important to note there is a wide range of conflicting data were getting from seemingly reputable sources. I've seen fatality rates from .25 all the way up 7 or 8% estimated by what would seem to be reputable sources. That's a pretty big spread.
My point being there are a very wide range of potential outcomes and knowing the exact right course of action is difficult if not impossible. Under these circumstances for better or worse I think public officials can be expected to err on the side of caution. Whether they were right or wrong in doing so I guess well know soon enough.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 18, 2020)

Death count from the common flu is still exceeding this one. Hitting upon Dave's comment, if the infection rate and death rates are fairly equal to the common flu, then where was this panic in the past? South Korea stats are hard to argue with. 

I did see a funny meme which I wished I had saved a copy of, It went something along:

"20 people die from Corona Virus and people panic, 300,000 die from obesity and Doritos comes out with a new flavor."

In regards to school meals, SC and NC have a contingency plan to deliver meals on the regular bus routes or can be picked up at the school itself. They have also setup wifi zones for kids without internet so they can do their school work online.

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## Elmas (Mar 18, 2020)

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Situation in Italy, Official site (Protezione civile).

Home

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## Marcel (Mar 18, 2020)

Elmas said:


> Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
> 
> Situation in Italy, Official site (Protezione civile).
> 
> Home


Almost as many dead as recovered. That's scary.

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## stona (Mar 18, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> worldwide go over 8,000 deaths



It's just the beginning. 
There will be millions worldwide.
That's not pessimistic doom and gloom. The UK currently estimates mortality due to the virus at 0.6% (which is on the low side, it may be closer to 1%) and is estimating more than 300,000 deaths over the next year and a bit. It sounds bad, but that is in a population of over 66 million.

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## Elmas (Mar 18, 2020)




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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

A couple of my friends in Germany just tested positive. They were not even showing symptoms yet. Totally unaware. They were contacted by the health department because someone else who tested positive put them down as someone they had contact with. They were both told to self quarantine, and medical personal arrived at their house to perform the test. The test came back positive.

So much for the conspiracy that no one knows who these infected people are...

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unless [Ebola] got out of Africa, nobody here was going to care.


This is too cynical to let slide. I cared and care. The effect of my sorrow is zero. Reasons being I'm in USA, not Africa; I speak only English and Spanish while much of Ebola-smitten Africa does not; my resources are near zero; and I cannot hope to counter the effects of their cultural habit of hugging and kissing the bodies of the dead (thereby passing the infection).



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Otherwise no one in the western world cares one bit what happens to Africa. Sad but a true fact.


Again, caring does not imply being able to do anything about it.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> As for Zika, no one was concerned because as long as you were not pregnant or trying to there was really no risk involved. My wife and I were living in Louisiana during the Zika scare, and were trying to get pregnant with our second child. Louisiana was confirmed to have it, believe me, we were concerned. We also traveled to Europe during that time, an remember at every airport officials walking around taking everyones temperature.


You were not alone in being concerned. Living in Pennsylvania raising 6 kids and dealing with a dying wife, my caring didn't have much effect. Saying I didn't care stings.

Please don't use such a broad, simplistic brush where greater accuracy doesn't require much.


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## Marcel (Mar 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> A couple of my friends in Germany just tested positive. They were not even showing symptoms yet. Totally unaware. They were contacted by the health department because someone else who tested positive put them down as someone they had contact with. They were both told to self quarantine, and medical personal arrived at their house to perform the test. The test came back positive.
> 
> So much for the conspiracy that no one knows who these infected people are...


I already have 2 in my environment, where my drummer has the bad one. He’s very ill. My neighbour seems okay, doesn’t feel too good, but it’s also not so acute.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 18, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today

deaths 2,978, sicks cumulative 35,713, recoveries 4,025, tests 165,541
fatality rate 8,47%


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## pbehn (Mar 18, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> This is too cynical to let slide. I cared and care. The effect of my sorrow is zero. Reasons being I'm in USA, not Africa; I speak only English and Spanish while much of Ebola-smitten Africa does not; my resources are near zero; and I cannot hope to counter the effects of their cultural habit of hugging and kissing the bodies of the dead (thereby passing the infection).
> 
> 
> .


Who knows what cultural practices we had in Europe before the black death which changed everything. It was a tradition in Yorkshire to kiss the dead, I did with my grandmother but that is after cause of death is established as not a communicable disease.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> This is too cynical to let slide. I cared and care. The effect of my sorrow is zero. Reasons being I'm in USA, not Africa; I speak only English and Spanish while much of Ebola-smitten Africa does not; my resources are near zero; and I cannot hope to counter the effects of their cultural habit of hugging and kissing the bodies of the dead (thereby passing the infection).
> 
> 
> Again, caring does not imply being able to do anything about it.
> ...



Sorry you feel that way, and yes it was a broad statement. The majority of the western world do not care about what is going on outside their world as long as they are not personally affected. That is a fact. It may be harsh, but it is a fact.

As long as our goods and products are kept at low prices, people in the west do not care. How many people do you think care that their Nikes are made by a kid in a sweatshop in China for instance? They don’t because if the shoe was made in the US they would be paying double for the shoe. The same goes for places in Africa, Asia, South America. If the coronavirus had stayed in China, no one would care. And yes that is a broad stroke, obviously there are people that will care but cannot do anything.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I already have 2 in my environment, where my drummer has the bad one. He’s very ill. My neighbour seems okay, doesn’t feel too good, but it’s also not so acute.



One of my friends is just starting to get symptoms. Very mild sore throat and that is it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

Interesting...

Coronavirus can persist in air for hours and on surfaces for days: study


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

So much for children pretty much skating by...

Study Finds 6 Percent of Children in China with Coronavirus Developed Serious Illnesses


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## Vincenzo (Mar 18, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Any information about the average age of those who died?



new ISS (~health higher institute) report updated to 17th march and 2,003 deaths
average age 79.5 years
here the report, in italian, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

an other ISS report, ever in italian, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza integrata COVID-19_16 marzo 2020.pdf

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## mikewint (Mar 18, 2020)

Chris, I'm very sorry to hear that your friends were infected. Hopefully they are young and the disease will be mild. They are fortunate that those who infected them remembered all those that they had been in contact with during that period of time. COVID-19 is very insidious in that those who have it are most infectious before showing symptoms.
From Munich Clinic Schwabing, a teaching hospital, Clemens Wendtner, director of infectious disease and tropical medicine at the hospital announced the results of 9 patients who contracted the virus in Germany. Tests showed that they were contagious in the first week of the disease and before symptoms appeared. Nasal and throat swabs taken at the time showed that the patients produced thousands to millions of infectious viruses in their noses and throats. After the eighth day of symptoms, the researchers could still detect the virus’s genetic material, RNA, in patients’ swabs or samples, but could no longer find infectious viruses. The researchers theorized that the patients were producing antibodies that were killing the free virus particles.
So if that is true for most people it is not good news because if you are one of the asymptomatic COVID-19 cases or are just mildly with it or just getting sick, you’re putting out a whole lot of virus particles. In effect passing the disease to others totally unaware


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## stona (Mar 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So much for the conspiracy that no one knows who these infected people are...



Some countries, including the UK are past that stage. They are no longer tracing contacts and testing. That's why there will be many untested and infected people at large. Only those presenting with symptoms will be tested. The dead are not being tested (people still die, even if not infected!).

*We do not have reliable figures for the total number of infections.* They are estimated according to epidemiological models. The UK's Chief Medical Officer, several days ago, gave a wide ranging estimate for total infections, between twenty and fifty times the number who had tested positive.


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## Airframes (Mar 18, 2020)

Anyone know the time period between confirmed infection and fatality ?
Seems to be fairly rapid.


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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ebola for instance was contained for the most part to the African continent. Unless it got out of Africa, nobody here was going to care as long as the prices on our goods remain cheap. ....* Sad but a true fact. If it does not directly affect you, why bother?* ..



You got that in one. That is the outlook of many people and probably all governments. During the SARS outbreak more people died from Ebola in one small part of Turkey than died of SARS. For some reason that part of Turkey regularly gets an outbreak at a certain time of year and it never spreads so no one else cares.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 18, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Anyone know the time period between confirmed infection and fatality ?
> Seems to be fairly rapid.



one of italian report i've posted
give (median)
8 days from symptoms to death
4 days from symptoms to hospitalization
4 days from hospitalization to death, this became 5 days if go in ICU


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## Airframes (Mar 18, 2020)

Thanks for the quick response. Rather frightening !


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Chris, I'm very sorry to hear that your friends were infected. Hopefully they are young and the disease will be mild. They are fortunate that those who infected them remembered all those that they had been in contact with during that period of time. COVID-19 is very insidious in that those who have it are most infectious before showing symptoms.
> From Munich Clinic Schwabing, a teaching hospital, Clemens Wendtner, director of infectious disease and tropical medicine at the hospital announced the results of 9 patients who contracted the virus in Germany. Tests showed that they were contagious in the first week of the disease and before symptoms appeared. Nasal and throat swabs taken at the time showed that the patients produced thousands to millions of infectious viruses in their noses and throats. After the eighth day of symptoms, the researchers could still detect the virus’s genetic material, RNA, in patients’ swabs or samples, but could no longer find infectious viruses. The researchers theorized that the patients were producing antibodies that were killing the free virus particles.
> So if that is true for most people it is not good news because if you are one of the asymptomatic COVID-19 cases or are just mildly with it or just getting sick, you’re putting out a whole lot of virus particles. In effect passing the disease to others totally unaware



See my post 513 on page 26...


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## mikewint (Mar 18, 2020)

Chris, what surprised me was the viral load in those asymptomatic individuals. They're contagious as hell and yet feel and look perfectly normal. Then you feel ill, get tested, 3-4 days later you have a positive....now, let's see how many people did I come in contact with over the last week...


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## MiTasol (Mar 18, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> one of italian report i've posted
> give (median)
> 8 days from symptoms to death
> 4 days from symptoms to hospitalization
> 4 days from hospitalization to death, this became 5 days if go in ICU



That is good information Vincenzo as that is an important set of statistics that I have not seen in the ISID reports from any country and my son in law in Seattle is on day 3 since diagnosis so if he is still home on Sunday we will be able to ease off, but not stop, our worrying.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Chris, what surprised me was the viral load in those asymptomatic individuals. They're contagious as hell and yet feel and look perfectly normal. Then you feel ill, get tested, 3-4 days later you have a positive....now, let's see how many people did I come in contact with over the last week...



Did you read the link?


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## mikewint (Mar 18, 2020)

Yea but I fergetted about it till your post about your friends in Germany then it klicked


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## Crimea_River (Mar 18, 2020)

It's important, I think, to understand what are hard numbers and what numbers are affected by variables. Unfortunately, I think that the vast majority of numbers being discussed above have many underlying variables attached and can therefore be misinterpreted.



stona said:


> Some countries, including the UK are past that stage. They are no longer tracing contacts and testing. That's why there will be many untested and infected people at large. Only those presenting with symptoms will be tested. The dead are not being tested (people still die, even if not infected!).
> 
> *We do not have reliable figures for the total number of infections.* They are estimated according to epidemiological models. The UK's Chief Medical Officer, several days ago, gave a wide ranging estimate for total infections, between twenty and fifty times the number who had tested positive.



Completely understandable and inevitable. The only way to really get the total number of infections is to test everyone in a given population at the same point in time. To get the true infection fatality rate (IFR) then, you would have to track that exact same population over the full course of the illness with no other variable entering in. But even this is variable as the number of people that die in any given population depends on yet more variables such as age distribution and quality/availability of health care.

My observation is that it's the case fatality rate (CFR) that's what's mostly being discussed in many previous posts and that is sometimes being construed as the IFR. I understand this to be the death rate amongst cases known to be infected, those that have presented themselves for testing. Because it excludes those who may be infected but who have not been tested, the CFR will always be greater than the IFR. I think this is why people are getting confused by the numbers.



Vincenzo said:


> one of italian report i've posted
> give (median)
> 8 days from symptoms to death
> 4 days from symptoms to hospitalization
> 4 days from hospitalization to death, this became 5 days if go in ICU



Again, though the numbers may be correct, let's understand the variables. So far the vast majority of cases have been mild and in most cases people will recover. If you discover symptoms, you will PROBABLY not die in 8 days. Rather, you may be among the many who will fully recover. Similarly, you my not even need to be hospitalized.

Of course, age is an important variable and one that is very much the concern for many of us on this forum! My hope is that we all do our best to understand as best as we can what's behind all these numbers and to not get freaked out about what, at first glance, appear to be alarming stats.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 18, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Again, though the numbers may be correct, let's understand the variables. So far the vast majority of cases have been mild and in most cases people will recover. If you discover symptoms, you will PROBABLY not die in 8 days. Rather, you may be among the many who will fully recover. Similarly, you my not even need to be hospitalized.



my wrong, i suppose that was clear that was valid only for the sicks go to die, most don't die. 

ISS reports are full of data also on age, the 79.5 average for the deaths, and around 59 for the sicks. 
the reports imho are for the public are too easy, probably there are more scientific reports for the experts


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## N4521U (Mar 18, 2020)

My wife teaches 2nd grade,
I'm gonna be 77 soon.
WTF ay?


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 18, 2020)

In my part of the world, Lakewood Colorado, about 15 miles east of Denver...

My employer sent our entire office team (11 of us) home yesterday. We have been set up to work from home so I have no disruption of employment (counting my blessings). I ventured out around 5 pm today to pick up a pizza. The restaurant offered "contact or non-contact" pick-up. This pizza restaurant was in a small strip mall and all the other food businesses were either closed or offering pick up or carry out only. Down the street I noticed a few fast food restaurants, their drive up windows were bustling.

After dinner I took my oldest daughter to a local supermarket to pick up "snacks." There were no paper products, limited amounts of certain meats, some bread and almost no pastas. Aside from that, plenty of other foods. I heard a few of the store employees saying a big shipment of items was coming in tonight.

My food and toilet paper stocks are good, I could honker down for a month if I had to.

The Governor of Colorado is closing all schools until at least until April 17.

San Miguel County issued a "shelter in place" order because of a high positive test rate.

2300 people tested, 216 positive, 2 dead, both with underlying health conditions. There is talk of a total state lockdown.

My daughter told me some of her friends called this pandemic (in very bad taste) the "Boomer Remover" because of the age of those being affected by it. In my sick sense of humor, I had to chuckle. (I'll be 61 in a few weeks)

On top of all this, tomorrow we may be getting up to 6 inches of snow delivered by 35 mph winds.

I have plenty of food and booze and I thank god I'm feeling pretty damn good!

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## michael rauls (Mar 18, 2020)

When I went shopping this last Sunday I to found many of the shelves empty. I did notice however there were still plenty of brussel sprouts.......and wierd canned good like " seafood broth".............yum.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 18, 2020)

Very similar to here in Alberta Joe. In Calgary, in particular, we have 83 of the province's 119 confirmed cases. 14447 total in Alberta tested negative. No deaths yet. All City run facilities are closed so no pools, gyms, libraries etc. All schools K to 12 sent out a notice last Sunday for the kids to stay home. Next week is March break anyway but today, kids were asked to come in to the school my wife works at in shifts of small groups to collect all the stuff out of their lockers. A lot of work is happening to make the rest of the curriculum available on the net so once that's set up, I suspect there won't be much thought given to bringing the kids back to class til next September.

Nearby Banff is usually a skiing mecca for tourists but now nobody is coming in. Canada closed the borders yesterday to all foreigners except for US citizens involved in shipping goods over the border. The ski hills as closed and Banff is basically telling everyone to stay away - nothing to see here.

Back here in town, all facilities/events involving gatherings of 50 or more people are cancelled. Movie theatres are closed. Live theatre and music festivals cancelled. Our Mosquito restoration group cancelled our AGM that was supposed to happen tonight because the venue shuttered the doors. I do a regular Wednesday night card game over a pint with friends at the Legion - no more as the Legion closed. Restaurants are all struggling.

Stores haven't been too bad. We had an initial rush of stupid people hoarding the usual crap but we're not too bad now. I'll head out tomorrow again for a few essentials and have another look-see.

We had our big snow last Saturday - about 8 inches with arctic temperatures of -21C and high winds. Now it's "warmer" and snowing again. But, like you, we have plenty of booze and food and the family is healthy. Thanking our luck so far and hoping for the best.

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## Capt. Vick (Mar 19, 2020)



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## stona (Mar 19, 2020)

Supermarkets in the UK look like a swarm of locusts has passed through.

The issue is that the morons who started the panic buying have had the effect of making perfectly reasonable people also buy up some essentials, maybe not in the quantities of the panic buyers, but if reasonable people start buying, say, a dozen eggs rather than their usual half-dozen the shelves are soon bare.

I refuse to get drawn in to it, I never liked Supermarket Sweep. To be fair many others are equally sensible. 

I don't give a monkey's about stocking up on pasta and tins of stuff I would never normally eat and we are buying the staples normally when we find them (we need some bread today!).

The Army has apparently put 20,000 troops on standby, to do essential stuff like transport oxygen, help with hospitals, ultimately they may work with the police (I bet they will not be armed in that role) etc., but the way some people are talking you'd think there will be tanks on the streets like some banana republic having another coup. It's f*ckin' ridiculous.

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## stona (Mar 19, 2020)

We now have some real data from the town of Vo in Italy.

The town's 3,300 citizens were subject to an experiment in the containment of the virus. Crucially, every single one was tested. The result? 

Professor Crisanti who managed the trial warned that that* for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't.*

That is not people showing mild symptoms, a cough, or running a temperature, that is people who are asymptomatic, *exhibiting no symptoms at all.*

This raises a serious issue which the professor himself acknowledged.

"It is clear that you cannot test all Italians - but you can test people close to those who are asymptomatic. We must use asymptomatic cases as an alarm bell to widen our action."

At the same time, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.

"All countries should be able to test all suspected cases. They cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded."

The dilemma is obvious, no country can test everybody, if it can't be done in developed countries with sophisticated health care systems (like Italy) it certainly can't be done in other countries around the globe, and yet as many as 90% of infected people show no symptoms by which they can be identified as a suspected case.


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## MiTasol (Mar 19, 2020)

Today here in Aus the Fed government said it will crack down on people selling toilet paper etc on ebay and the Queensland government said not here you wont.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 19, 2020)

stona said:


> We now have some real data from the town of Vo in Italy.
> 
> The town's 3,300 citizens were subject to an experiment in the containment of the virus. Crucially, every single one was tested. The result?
> 
> ...



actually this is write in Financial Times article 
"
The first testing round, carried out on the town’s entire population in late February, found 3 per cent of the population infected, though half of the carriers had no symptoms. After isolating all those infected, the second testing round about 10 days later showed the infection rate had dropped to 0.3 per cent. Importantly, however, this second round identified at least six individuals who had the virus but no symptoms, meaning they could be quarantined. “If they hadn’t been identified, the infection would have resumed,” explained Prof Crisanti. "


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## Peter Gunn (Mar 19, 2020)

Supermarkets here in Florida were pretty normal yesterday, stopped in for a couple of things and the shelves were stocked, although most stores are cutting back on hours I noticed.


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## Peter Gunn (Mar 19, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> actually this is write in Financial Times article
> "
> The first testing round, carried out on the town’s entire population in late February, found 3 per cent of the population infected, though half of the carriers had no symptoms. After isolating all those infected, the second testing round about 10 days later showed the infection rate had dropped to 0.3 per cent. Importantly, however, this second round identified at least six individuals who had the virus but no symptoms, meaning they could be quarantined. “If they hadn’t been identified, the infection would have resumed,” explained Prof Crisanti. "


Vincenzo, hope you are staying safe buddy, don't want you catching that virus. Have read some heartbreaking stories coming from Italy.

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## Sid327 (Mar 19, 2020)

Information purposes only for perspective....


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## Marcel (Mar 19, 2020)

Sid327 said:


> Information purposes only for perspective....



I think as already stated in this thread that the death toll is not the main concern at the moment.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I think as already stated in this thread that the death toll is not the main concern at the moment.



I don’t understand how people don’t understand this.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2020)

Stardate 20200319

Captains Log. Day 3 of work from home quarantine. Provisions are adequate. Toilet paper is holding. Crew is enjoying not having to wear business clothes, and rolling out of their crew quarters 10 minutes before they must be on station. The junior crew is enjoying having their captain available at all times.

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## michaelmaltby (Mar 19, 2020)

"... I don’t understand how people don’t understand this."
I feel like I*m watching a global _Fire Dril_l ....


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## mikewint (Mar 19, 2020)

Several grocery-type stores here open at 6AM for senior citizens only for the first hour. Since they've been stocking since 8PM the previous night the shelves are relatively full and whatever was unstocked one day might be there the next. So far we have been able to get everything with the exception of hand sanitizer. We already have 2 full liters on the storage shelf so that's not a big concern for the present. 46 confirmed cases in the entire state and all are clustered in the Little Rock area. The closest case is 2 counties away (100mi or so). 
Down in my workroom I already had P99 and Carbon-layer masks for airbrushing, nitrile gloves in the garage, 93% isoproply alcohol, and Denatured ethanol for painting so we're set on that score. When necessary we sanitize hands; put on gloves and masks; use sanitizing wipes on the shopping cart, get what we want at the store; remove gloves and mask in the car and re-sanitize hands. Frozen foods go into the freezer; cold foods in refrig #1; everything else on a table in the garage. Everything new will sit undisturbed for at least 24 hours before we touch it.
Many Restaurants here are still open. We went out on the 17th for Corned Beef & Cabbage. I saw no one with either a mask or sanitizer and the bar was shoulder to shoulder. All fast food drive-ups are open.
Schools are closed until Apr 1 except that the schools are still providing breakfast and lunch to many students who request them. Delivery is via school bus and Karen volunteered to drive one of the routes. Parents meet the bus and another employee hands out the food. Other than that we're a closed unit
Back in 2007 a massive ice storm knocked out everything here for over two weeks so we learned to become self-sufficient. Our own well for water if necessary, a generator to power the entire house for month (12 on 12 off), 3 freezers kept stocked, 2 refrigerators also with their own freezers, two fireplaces and 3 acres of oak trees for wood. Nearest neighbors are +300m in any direction with lots of trees in between.
Not sure that I can do much more. With age and health issues I'm past the high risk catagory


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## Vincenzo (Mar 19, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 3,405, sicks cumulative 41,035, recoveries 4,440, tests 182,777
fatality rate 8,3%


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## tomo pauk (Mar 19, 2020)

Keep safe, people.


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## michael rauls (Mar 19, 2020)

Pro tip on the toilett paper acquisition. In this area at least all the mom and pop liquor stores are still fully stocked. Every place else including the major convenience store chains has been cleared out like a swarm of hungry locust went through but I guess the hoarders didn't think about the independently owned liquor stores.


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## michael rauls (Mar 19, 2020)

I guess I cant really say for sure all are well stocked. I only went to two but its a good indication. They had a couple dozen rolls each. Bought 3 at one store( wanted to leave plenty for others) and picked up two at another. Should last us for a week and change.


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## Gnomey (Mar 19, 2020)

A good comparison and summary for you guys.

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## gumbyk (Mar 19, 2020)

We've just reached 28 cases here in New Zealand, with no community transmission - they've all brought it into the country while travelling. And now, due to the arrogance of some travellers refusing to self-isolate for two weeks, the borders are closed, except to NZers coming home (not that there will be many ways of getting here now).


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## BlackSheep (Mar 19, 2020)

Due to my girlfriend’s health (breast cancer), I work two full-time jobs, both of which have shown me much about this situation.

My temp job, working in a grocery store, has exposed me to the worst the public has to offer, in regards to greed, self-centeredness, and overall ugly behavior. Watching people panic or buy with the hopes of flipping a profit on someone’s desperation has caused me to lose much respect for the public, in general.

My career, working for local government in water treatment, has given me an insider’s view to this situation and the amount of behind the scenes planning. It didn’t have to go down like it did, except for the actions of that first wave of people frightening the herd and causing the stampede.

On a brighter note, we just got word that the plant might go on lockdown. Cases of premium freeze-dried meals and MREs have been delivered, my duffle is packed, and look forward to round the clock OT pay!

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## Crimea_River (Mar 19, 2020)

Grocery store I frequent had lots of empty shelves. No oatmeal or peanuts and I got the last pint of half and half cream. No frozen berries for my morning smoothies either.


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## rochie (Mar 19, 2020)

i have 2 chefs off work with syptoms.

my boss has cancelled all my relief chefs leaving me and another guy in the kitchen.

he expects me to work 80+ hours to cover the gaps in the rota but pay me for 45 for the good of the company !

wished i had not tried to help the girl worried about her wedding now, not a happy bunny.


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## pbehn (Mar 19, 2020)

Dunno what the complaints are here about hoarding if you cant find toilet rolls and pasta take a kit from the stash.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 19, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> It's simply a snowball rolling downhill - the previous "pandemics" . . . . mad cow disease


Mad cow disease was caused by cattle eating feed that was contaminated with neural tissue that came from sheep that were infected with scrapie or from cattle with BSE.

Not that I want to trivialize, it was _generally_ a cattle-feed to cattle to human disease: It rarely spread from human to human (I can only think of one case that seems to clearly fit the criteria), unless you were engaged in the business of eating long-pork.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 19, 2020)

Thank God I stocked up on bourbon!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ah, I think I know where this is going...


You've known me long enough that I don't fall for that conspiracy BS.

The governor's office posted a list of affected counties, citing Shasta County had 38 cases, during his press release where he was implementing new emergency laws and restrictions.

Shasta County department of health and social services just issued a press statement saying that was false, only one person tested positive and they were being monitored and recovering well.

So no conspiracy at all - perhaps we can say it was simply an error or misquote or?


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## Marcel (Mar 19, 2020)

For the ones still thinking this is just another flu. Please look at what happens in Italy. Their medical system is at break down point. And Italy is not known for having a bad healthcare. Here in the Netherlands, IC is filling up more rapidly than during the normal flu epidemics. People end up in IC with major lung problems, half of the people ending up in IC are younger than 50.

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## MiTasol (Mar 19, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Pro tip on the toilett paper acquisition. In this area at least all the mom and pop liquor stores are still fully stocked. Every place else including the major convenience store chains has been cleared out like a swarm of hungry locust went through but I guess the hoarders didn't think about the independently owned liquor stores.



Here the locusts are hiring busses and going out into the country to devour all the supplies* except for the fresh vegetables.*

Queensland has just changed its laws so that supermarkets can restock 24/7 instead of only during business hours but the problem now is that a lot of truckies have self isolated so there is no one to drive the trucks.

*




*

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## gumbyk (Mar 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Here the locusts are hiring busses and going out into the country to devour all the supplies* except for the fresh vegetables.*


If you're stockpiling, its no good keeping large amounts of perishables.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 19, 2020)

i today go to shop, i find all that need, but i take last 2 bacon portion (this is bacon for pasta sauce) i did fast but i didn't see empty shelves, excluding that bacon
i don't take fresh food this days imho is less safe


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## tomo pauk (Mar 19, 2020)

Shops (both small and supermarkets) are well stocked here. Companies have a lot of experience with seasonal peaks in demand, caused due to tourist influx, so that, coupled with actually small population and good stocks works as an advantage. Price of fuel has dropped by ~15%.
Thus far, confirmed is that one person has died in Croatia due to the virus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> For the ones still thinking this is just another flu. Please look at what happens in Italy. Their medical system is at break down point. And Italy is not known for having a bad healthcare. Here in the Netherlands, IC is filling up more rapidly than during the normal flu epidemics. People end up in IC with major lung problems, half of the people ending up in IC are younger than 50.



The American people are about to find out what poor healthcare system we have. The majority of us will remain blind afterwards as well.


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## jetcal1 (Mar 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The American people are about to find out what poor healthcare system we have. The majority of us will remain blind afterwards as well.



No healthcare system can deal with a pandemic. No large city can deal with a mass casualty event of more than 12-1,500 people on a good day. (Italy also has an predominately older population of smokers.)

Don't get me wrong, it's messy world-wide. The fact of the matter is the world's medical system absent a major world war is not geared to deal with a pandemic.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 19, 2020)

Karl, hang in there buddy. Thinking of you.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> No healthcare system can deal with a pandemic. No large city can deal with a mass casualty event of more than 12-1,500 people on a good day. (Italy also has an predominately older population of smokers.)
> 
> Don't get me wrong, it's messy world-wide. The fact of the matter is the world's medical system absent a major world war is not geared to deal with a pandemic.



I don’t disagree with anything you are saying. I’m talking more about how we insure people, and protect workers when they are sick.

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## gumbyk (Mar 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t disagree with anything you are saying. I’m talking more about how we insure people, and protect workers when they are sick.


Yep, when ICU's are full, and hospitals are having to practice battlefield triage, who are they going to choose to treat?


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## michael rauls (Mar 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Here the locusts are hiring busses and going out into the country to devour all the supplies* except for the fresh vegetables.*
> 
> Queensland has just changed its laws so that supermarkets can restock 24/7 instead of only during business hours but the problem now is that a lot of truckies have self isolated so there is no one to drive the trucks.
> 
> ...


I know I said this upthread last week but they've got to run out of space eventually right? I mean where are they putting 40,000 rolls of toilet paper and 30 flats of eggs? ( actually saw a woman loading about 30 flats of eggs into her car Sunday and several other people with like half that on Saturday)
I don't think you can even freeze eggs right? I wonder what she was gonna do with like 600 eggs.
I truly am not understanding the continued hoarding. The first wave I didn't find that surprising, unfortunately, there is always a portion of the populace that is easily set ajar so to speak but I'm really becoming dumbfounded now.


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## taly01 (Mar 20, 2020)

> I don't think you can even freeze eggs right?



I did it once, they sure looked funny when i took them out and thawed them, I didn't dare eat them but it probably wouldn't have killed me


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## MiTasol (Mar 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> For the ones still thinking this is just another flu. Please look at what happens in Italy. Their medical system is at break down point. And Italy is not known for having a bad healthcare.



Unlike most strains of flu, the spread of Covid-19 has not yet been restricted, let alone contained, by vaccines or immunity from previous outbreaks, and scientists (including those from the WHO) believe it has a significantly higher death rate than that of seasonal flu (which, on average, is about 0.1%). 

For an in depth analysis by UK health experts go to https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


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## Sid327 (Mar 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I think as already stated in this thread that the death toll is not the main concern at the moment.




The video is mostly about the over reaction and panic mentality....


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## N4521U (Mar 20, 2020)

Well now.......... 97 days till I'm 77, I guess by virus statistics that's about long enough.

I better tap in to that $200 bottle of Bundaburg rum while I can.

I've been reading why this one is so bad because it's an animal virus that has mutated to human to human transfer. The human body cannot recognize the virus and we have no immunity built up to fight it. There are no drugs that have been developed to fight it, as of yet. Isolation is the only fight against it we have at the moment. 

BTW, here in Oz, and it is a fact, Asians are going from small town to small town in busses buying up all the commodities they can carry back to the bus then shipping back to their own home countries. Gov't is now posting police in stores. Self check outs and cashiers have put limits of most items that can be bought. Still people go from store to store and buy their limits. Herd mentality!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2020)

My two friends in Germany who tested positive have been keeping me updated. One has pretty severe symptoms, but is not requiring hospitalization. The other never developed symptoms at all, other than slightly higher temperature, which has since gone away. Just shows you how it affects people differently.

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## mikewint (Mar 20, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I don't think you can even freeze eggs right?



You can if you do it correctly - Medium to small eggs, break open the egg and dump into an ice cube tray - remember those from Ye Olde Days of Yore when every refrigerator didn't have an automatic ice cube maker in the freezer. When tray is full put in freezer. 
You can freeze milk too as long as the container has those pushed-in divots in the side for expansion


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## pbehn (Mar 20, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Grocery store I frequent had lots of empty shelves. No oatmeal or peanuts and I got the last pint of half and half cream. No frozen berries for my morning smoothies either.


Today there were no chickens in the supermarket but lots of duck at half price, so slightly more than a chicken in price. Makes no sense at all.


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## at6 (Mar 20, 2020)

We started making everything in China. Now we are even importing our viruses from there.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 20, 2020)

Cheaper than if we made them here.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 20, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. today
deaths 4,032, sicks cumulative 47,021, recoveries 5,129, tests 206,886
fatality rate 8,6%
mortality rate (with a population of 60,317k) 67 per million

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## herman1rg (Mar 20, 2020)

I'll just leave this here
Pubs and restaurants told to shut to fight virus


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## michael rauls (Mar 20, 2020)

at6 said:


> We started making everything in China. Now we are even importing our viruses from there.


Maybe we could slap a terif on them. Like 50 cents per individual virus.... Should add up.

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## michael rauls (Mar 20, 2020)

Just read that one London hospital has already ran out of beds.

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## mikewint (Mar 20, 2020)

at6 said:


> Now we are even importing our viruses from there.


Nothing new about it. China's high population density: Wuhan, the most densely popilated city in central China, e.g. has 11 million residents packed tightly together within the city limits. Sanitation is poor to non-existent. Raw sewage from people and animal flows into the same river that people draw water, bathe, and swim in. The Chinese feel strongly that meat needs to be freshly killed to "taste right" thus the large numbers of "wet markets" where freshly slaughtered mammals, reptiles, fowl, and fish, plus assorted illegal "wild-life" (want peacock tonight honey?) all mix together in the open air market as thousands of humans handle and inspect the carcasses. In addition, for a small fee any of the above critters can be killed and dismembered as you wait. Or if you really want "fresh" the live animal can be purchased on the spot. Sanitation is a bucket of river water thrown over the area every now and them when things get too slippery. The Chinese also tend to turn first to traditional medicines and practicioners who offer herbal, acupuncture, or animal remidies as cures. The infected return to their families spreading the infection. Now add Chinese government secrecy, misinformation, and censorship. Remember January when China announcd that COVID-19 was contained. Chinese doctors who attempted to correct this were arrested by the police (Li Wenliang eventually contracted COVID and died)
Consider that Bats which live in densely populated roost caves are hosts to thousands of viruses. They fly and migrate over large geographic areas. No surprise then that bats were the original mammalian host animal for Ebola, SARS, MERS, and the new CORONA-19. Many birds such as ducks, geese, chickens also roost and feed in densely packed flocks and also fly over large areas, even worldwide. Avian Flu (H5N1) was first discovered in Hong Kong. It has been slow to spread to humans because of the species gap between mammals and fowl. Remember the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic? Over a billion were infected and over 500,000 died. A variety of the H1N1 virus it transferred from pigs to humans either in China or Central Mexico where again we have humans and domestic pigs living in close association with each other.
Humans and animals living in close association are going to transfer viruses. Have a dog or dogs? Heard of dog Distemper? How about Measles? Did you know that the viruses are almost identical. At some point in the very distant past the canine paramyxoviruses made the jump to humans (and a few other primates)

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## rochie (Mar 20, 2020)

herman1rg said:


> I'll just leave this here
> Pubs and restaurants told to shut to fight virus


yep my hotel closes after service tonight, about 10 mins time.

had to cancel a wedding tomorrow and a funeral on monday !

in tomorrow to close down kitchen and save what food i can the off into the unknown.

might make a dent in my model stash though

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## Vincenzo (Mar 20, 2020)

2nd confirmed positive in my town

now i know who is, 9 days ago i saw him


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## michael rauls (Mar 20, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Nothing new about it. China's high population density: Wuhan, the most densely popilated city in central China, e.g. has 11 million residents packed tightly together within the city limits. Sanitation is poor to non-existent. Raw sewage from people and animal flows into the same river that people draw water, bathe, and swim in. The Chinese feel strongly that meat needs to be freshly killed to "taste right" thus the large numbers of "wet markets" where freshly slaughtered mammals, reptiles, fowl, and fish, plus assorted illegal "wild-life" (want peacock tonight honey?) all mix together in the open air market as thousands of humans handle and inspect the carcasses. In addition, for a small fee any of the above critters can be killed and dismembered as you wait. Or if you really want "fresh" the live animal can be purchased on the spot. Sanitation is a bucket of river water thrown over the area every now and them when things get too slippery. The Chinese also tend to turn first to traditional medicines and practicioners who offer herbal, acupuncture, or animal remidies as cures. The infected return to their families spreading the infection. Now add Chinese government secrecy, misinformation, and censorship. Remember January when China announcd that COVID-19 was contained. Chinese doctors who attempted to correct this were arrested by the police (Li Wenliang eventually contracted COVID and died)
> Consider that Bats which live in densely populated roost caves are hosts to thousands of viruses. They fly and migrate over large geographic areas. No surprise then that bats were the original mammalian host animal for Ebola, SARS, MERS, and the new CORONA-19. Many birds such as ducks, geese, chickens also roost and feed in densely packed flocks and also fly over large areas, even worldwide. Avian Flu (H5N1) was first discovered in Hong Kong. It has been slow to spread to humans because of the species gap between mammals and fowl. Remember the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic? Over a billion were infected and over 500,000 died. A variety of the H1N1 virus it transferred from pigs to humans either in China or Central Mexico where again we have humans and domestic pigs living in close association with each other.
> Humans and animals living in close association are going to transfer viruses. Have a dog or dogs? Heard of dog Distemper? How about Measles? Did you know that the viruses are almost identical. At some point in the very distant past the canine paramyxoviruses made the jump to humans (and a few other primates)


I was gonna grab some lunch but I guess I'm not so hungry after all.

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## N4521U (Mar 20, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Cheaper than if we made them here.



But now they have all the money, and the power to Buy everything we own!
Dairies, ports, farms, the baby formula company.
Talk of the Chinese owning power stations.
Busloads of them buying everything in the stores and shipping it all back to China, leaves us groveling!

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## stona (Mar 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> For the ones still thinking this is just another flu. Please look at what happens in Italy. Their medical system is at break down point. And Italy is not known for having a bad healthcare. Here in the Netherlands, IC is filling up more rapidly than during the normal flu epidemics. People end up in IC with major lung problems, half of the people ending up in IC are younger than 50.



I'm confused about the Dutch response. My daughter spoke to her friend Ava who, together with husband Sven and two kids, lives on the coast, not very far from Amsterdam (I can't remember the name of the place). Sven was, in Ava's words, 'barking like a seal' with a bad cough, so the entire family was tested. They were all positive, though neither Ava, nor the children had symptoms at the time. Sven has been quite unwell, but is on the road to recovery without anything but time at home, though he was off the lifeboat roster for a while. The other three are, thankfully, fine.
They have not even been told to self isolate.

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## Marcel (Mar 20, 2020)

stona said:


> I'm confused about the Dutch response. My daughter spoke to her friend Ava who, together with husband Sven and two kids, lives on the coast, not very far from Amsterdam (I can't remember the name of the place). Sven was, in Ava's words, 'barking like a seal' with a bad cough, so the entire family was tested. They were all positive, though neither Ava, nor the children had symptoms at the time. Sven has been quite unwell, but is on the road to recovery without anything but time at home, though he was off the lifeboat roster for a while. The other three are, thankfully, fine.
> They have not even been told to self isolate.


Self isolation is actually the policy here, so I don’t know what happened there. We have many friends in self isolation at the moment just because they have some symptoms of the common cold. None of them have been tested as their illness doesn’t seem too severe.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 20, 2020)

Karl I hope you're able to get some financial help. In Canada there's a plan to help our citizens that find themselves in your situation.

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## MiTasol (Mar 20, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Cheaper than if we made them here.



Until the supply is cut off by something like this or a natural disaster and then you suddenly have to set up the factories and start local production all over again. Local production also reduces unemployment and increase tax revenues but the economists never factor that into their calculations.

Here the government has taken over one of (if not the) last remaining face mask factory and put the military in charge of making the masks. To me leaving the people with years of experience to do the job is going to result in higher output and less machinery failures but military intelligence and its identical twin brother government intelligence has decreed otherwise. The same government intelligence that sells underground water holdings in places like Stanthorp (when they are trucking in water from Brisbane and rationing it to residents) to Chinese companies so they can bottle it and ship to China.

After the virus subsides I bet they sell the mask factory to China.

If brains were gasoline they would not have enough to start a cigarette lighter.

And the Australian government still thinks allowing groups of 100 people is going to stop this virus. Even if you locked the politicians in a room with the report on the city of Vo and the Royal College reports being broadcast non stop they still would not get the message

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## rochie (Mar 20, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Karl I hope you're able to get some financial help. In Canada there's a plan to help our citizens that find themselves in your situation.


government will pay 80% of retained employee wages to encourage employers to not make mass redundancies.
we will see what my employer does.

thank you for your thoughts my friend

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## pbehn (Mar 20, 2020)

rochie said:


> yep my hotel closes after service tonight, about 10 mins time.
> 
> had to cancel a wedding tomorrow and a funeral on monday !
> 
> ...


My daughter is in the same boat. Hang in there.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 20, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Isolation is the only fight against it we have at the moment.



This is true, but as Adler pointed out, it affects different people differently. In most cases, it is no more severe than a normal 'flu (for specifics, it's a strain of SARS). The reality is that the larger majority of those who will get infected will be so for between 5 days and two weeks, with symptoms and effects similar to more familiar strains of the 'flu. The majority of deaths are from pre-existing conditions, in Italy it is around 99.8% of those who died suffered from pre-existing conditions (you don't die from COVID-19, it's a virus, it affects your immune system and you die of whatever you've got that might kill you).

The big things about this is a) there is no vaccine, and b) it remains alive on surfaces for much longer than known 'flus and transmits through the air in bodily fluids, so spreads real fast. This is why isolation is the best remedy. Bearing all this in mind, I do feel we are all over-reacting big time.

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## rochie (Mar 20, 2020)

pbehn said:


> My daughter is in the same boat. Hang in there.


Tell her good luck, were all going to need it

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## at6 (Mar 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> This is true, but as Adler pointed out, it affects different people differently. In most cases, it is no more severe than a normal 'flu (for specifics, it's a strain of SARS). The reality is that the larger majority of those who will get infected will be so for between 5 days and two weeks, with symptoms and effects similar to more familiar strains of the 'flu. The majority of deaths are from pre-existing conditions, in Italy it is around 99.8% of those who died suffered from pre-existing conditions (you don't die from COVID-19, it's a virus, it affects your immune system and you die of whatever you've got that might kill you).
> 
> The big things about this is a) there is no vaccine, and b) it remains alive on surfaces for much longer than known 'flus and transmits through the air in bodily fluids, so spreads real fast. This is why isolation is the best remedy. Bearing all this in mind, I do feel we are all over-reacting big time.


No more using public rest rooms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## MiTasol (Mar 21, 2020)



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## Vincenzo (Mar 21, 2020)

Started my self isolation, i meet the 2nd confirmed of my town Tuesday 10th March, Wednesday 25th March i end it
EDIT the 25th March i will end the first part of my self isolation, after i could be a symptomless so i should do an other 2 weks

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## Elmas (Mar 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> This is true, but as Adler pointed out, it affects different people differently. In most cases, it is no more severe than a normal 'flu (for specifics, it's a strain of SARS). The reality is that the larger majority of those who will get infected will be so for between 5 days and two weeks, with symptoms and effects similar to more familiar strains of the 'flu. The majority of deaths are from pre-existing conditions, in Italy it is around 99.8% of those who died suffered from pre-existing conditions (you don't die from COVID-19, it's a virus, it affects your immune system and you die of whatever you've got that might kill you).
> 
> The big things about this is a) there is no vaccine, and b) it remains alive on surfaces for much longer than known 'flus and transmits through the air in bodily fluids, so spreads real fast. This is why isolation is the best remedy. Bearing all this in mind, I do feel we are all over-reacting big time.








Are you sure?

Military trucks taking out to the crematorium the coffins of the deads.


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## stona (Mar 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Self isolation is actually the policy here, so I don’t know what happened there. We have many friends in self isolation at the moment just because they have some symptoms of the common cold. None of them have been tested as their illness doesn’t seem too severe.



I just spoke to my daughter, the family in question live in Egmond aan Zee. They have been told not to go to crowded places (if they are still open!) but to otherwise carry on as normal. They don't have to stay indoors, they can go shopping or to the beach, which is virtually outside their front door.

Sven's work place has closed because several employees tested positive.

It seems that there are very mixed messages!

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## Marcel (Mar 21, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Started my self isolation, i meet the 2nd confirmed of my town Tuesday 10th March, Wednesday 25th March i end it
> EDIT the 25th March i will end the first part of my self isolation, after i could be a symptomless so i should do an other 2 weks


Stay healthy Vincenzo.

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## rochie (Mar 21, 2020)

well kitchen has been scrubbed, all food suitable has been frozen.

my GM is insisting all staff report for work as normal until end of day monday or they will not be paid, restrictions are for the public not for staff, even though the hotel is empty 


had a blazing row with him as that is not what the PM said but have to comply with his wishes for now

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## rochie (Mar 21, 2020)

try and stay safe Vincenzo

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## Elmas (Mar 21, 2020)

Auguri Vincenzo!

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Actually it is, the German Government confirmed it. I will save the political discussion for Facebook.


On a somewhat positive note that makes me feel a little better about the government action in this though perhaps not entirely thrilled, read yesterday the company, cure vac( I think I've got the name right), representatives of other companies that were at the conference, and multiple witnesses to the conversation all say this didn't happen.
Could all those people be lying? Eh maybe but put that together with the fact the time line makes this story make no sense and I think we can pretty much rest assured that however comming up short our government response may be, at least that kinda stuff isn't going on.

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

In LA country they have several thousand cases but fortunately( unless you're one of those people of course) only 3 current hospitalizations and a total of 2 deaths( LA county has one of the yougest average populations and lowest smoking rates in the world by the way). I haven't heard any experts say this but to me its really starting to look like how hard this will be on a country/ area depends on 3 things........ 1. The percentage of the population over 65, 28% of the population in Italy is over 65 that would mean about 35%? of the adult population( an astonishing statistic by the way if true). 2. The percentage of people( especially in that age group) who smoke, have read that like China an inordinately large percentage of the Italian population smokes. And 3. Which of of the two strains of this thing the area or country( one of the two is apparently much more virulent than the other) gets.
Italy, God help them, appears to have gotten the triple whammy here.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 21, 2020)

The smokers in Italy are under 25% of population

Thanks guys

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## tomo pauk (Mar 21, 2020)

The number of confirmed cases doubled (from ~100 to ~200) in Croatia within a few days.

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> The smokers in Italy are under 25% of population
> 
> Thanks guys


Thanks for the info. I keep reading that its much higher. You never know the veracity of what you read these days.
Perhaps two and half of the above mentioned factors( 20% of the population smoking is still fairly high, especially is it's mostly as it is here in the LA area mostly older people who smoke. That would mean about 30% of those over 65 smoke).
It wasn't meant to be accusatory. I hope it didn't sound that way. Just an observation that may be useful for people to access what may be headed there way. I am certainly praying for the people of Italy.

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

Thought I'd post a list of all the things I've read that may be of benefit if one contracts this. All these things seem to have at least marginal efficacy and at least some study to back them up. 1. Zinc 2.Vitamin C 2. Vitamin D 3. Quinine( available in tonic water) has much the same mecular structure and mechanism of action as chloroquine so im making an assumption here( but I think a probable one and can't hurt). 4. Lithium( its a natural mineral everyone consumes in there diet, about 1 to 3 miligrams a day which is about 100th the dose given to people with depression) its available in 5 miligram supplements.
And for Gods sake if you smoke now is a great time to quit, at least for the time being. The drummer for my band just did and if he can anybody can. He was like 2 packs a day. Just bought a skid of nicotine gum and hes doin fine.
Hope this helps.

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## stona (Mar 21, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> ( 20% of the population smoking is still fairly high,



Last figures I found gave smoking rates of 17.25% for the US and 24.00% for Italy. Perhaps this is not as large a difference as you suspected? I have certainly never had the impression that an inordinate number of people in Italy smoke.

In Europe, the UK weighs in at 19.15%, Sweden at 20.60% compared with, for examples, Greece at 42.65%, Spain at 29.20%. The Dutch let the northerners down a bit with 25.05% and Jacques and Francoise still love a gasper, with a rate of 27.70%. As for Hans and Gretel, 30.35%. You'd think that the Germans would know better. 

The smoking rate in China is 24.70%, remarkably similar to Italy and both are fairly close to average, certainly not high.

Then there are all the 'vapers' who imagine that their lungs are unaffected by the inhalation of steam and other products of the e-cigarettes.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 21, 2020)

<wiki> List of countries by cigarette consumption per capita - Wikipedia </wiki>
China #15 
Croatia #36
Italy is #41
USA #69

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## mikewint (Mar 21, 2020)

rochie said:


> restrictions are for the public not for staff,


*All men are equal - except - some are more equal than others.*
Same with the school here. Kids are gone but some staff are required to come back this Monday. Contracted employees get paid but are supposedly required to put in their contracted hours. Teachers are to report to clean/sanitize their individual rooms, janitorial staff cleaning/sanitizing hallways/common rooms, bus drivers clean/sanitize their bus while some drivers transport breakfast & lunch foods to students/parents on assistance as they term it here. 
Natch the big cheeses don't show and still get paid....See above trueism

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

stona said:


> Last figures I found gave smoking rates of 17.25% for the US and 24.00% for Italy. Perhaps this is not as large a difference as you suspected? I have certainly never had the impression that an inordinate number of people in Italy smoke.
> 
> In Europe, the UK weighs in at 19.15%, Sweden at 20.60% compared with, for examples, Greece at 42.65%, Spain at 29.20%. The Dutch let the northerners down a bit with 25.05% and Jacques and Francoise still love a gasper, with a rate of 27.70%. As for Hans and Gretel, 30.35%. You'd think that the Germans would know better.
> 
> ...


Ive read repeatedly that 70% of the men in China smoke. Not trying to argue. Just throwing that out there. That's what I've read and heard in the media. I of course can't verify that. 
In the US the LA area has almost no deaths from this( one of the lowest smoking rates in the country) and New York, where everyone smokes is having about one death per hour. Again what I just read about 1 hour ago. Certainly welcome conflicting stats. 
The point being if you smoke now would be a great time to quit. Every expert ive heard without one exception says its one of the main determining factors in the fatality incidents of this. Not trying to proselytize. Just hope this can help.
In some of the country's you listed this is just getting rolling so well have to wait to see how big a factor the incidence of smoking is on a national level.
I may indeed be full of hot air here but it doesn't look that way so far and one things for sure, quiting smoking certainly isn't going to hurt your chances.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 21, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 4,825, sicks cumulative 53,578, recoveries 6,072, tests 233,222
fatality rate 9%
mortality rate 80 per million

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## rochie (Mar 21, 2020)

So were back open on Monday, different hotels doing different things, some open as normal, some just doing residents, some room service only some closed.

I dont see any difference between a restaurant and bar and a hotel restaurant and bar but hey, what do i know ?


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## Airframes (Mar 21, 2020)

Good news for you then Karl. But yes, strange interpretations of the "rules".
BTW, do you deliver to Macclesfield ???!!!!

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## rochie (Mar 21, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Good news for you then Karl. But yes, strange interpretations of the "rules".
> BTW, do you deliver to Macclesfield ???!!!!


I can do !

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## Airframes (Mar 21, 2020)

OK then - Escargot des Savoie, Chateuabriand avec legunes, et sorbet Limon. Une botuille St. Emillion 1987, cafe creme et le cognac.

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## stona (Mar 21, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. today
> deaths 4,825, sicks cumulative 53,578, recoveries 6,072, tests 233,222
> fatality rate 9%
> mortality rate 80 per million



The UK Has about one tenth that level of cases. It will soon rocket as we are following a very similar path to Italy.

5,013 cases and 72,818 tested.

233 dead, which is about 4.6% of CONFIRMED cases. The youngest is a man in his forties who was terminally ill with motor neurone disease (it's no easier for his family, but he was given two years to live two years ago).

The Chief Medical Officer seems to be sticking to his guns for his estimation of the overall mortality rate at less than 1%.

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## Elmas (Mar 21, 2020)

Atalanta-Valencia la “partita zero” del Covid-19, il primario di Bergamo: “Come una bomba”

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## rochie (Mar 21, 2020)

Airframes said:


> OK then - Escargot des Savoie, Chateuabriand avec legunes, et sorbet Limon. Une botuille St. Emillion 1987, cafe creme et le cognac.


sorry Dogsbody, i only have St. Emillion 85 not 87, will that do ?

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Yep, when ICU's are full, and hospitals are having to practice battlefield triage, who are they going to choose to treat?


Not me or a significant number of members here on the forum.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My two friends in Germany who tested positive have been keeping me updated. One has pretty severe symptoms, but is not requiring hospitalization. The other never developed symptoms at all, other than slightly higher temperature, which has since gone away. Just shows you how it affects people differently.


Best wishes to best of them.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

Scary stuff, for those of you that must work or in the midst of high risk populations, please, please take extra care.

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## Gnomey (Mar 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Bearing all this in mind, I do feel we are all over-reacting big time.


Trust me, we aren’t.

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## Marcel (Mar 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Bearing all this in mind, I do feel we are all over-reacting big time.


I think Italy proves that we are not. I see it happening here as well, the medical system is gradually overflowing in the south. Amount of patients in ICU grows more every day and way faster than during the normal flu. We expect a peak next week, so we'll see how we hold out.

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## N4521U (Mar 21, 2020)

I guess I had an anxious episode the other night.
All this kinda gets to me, it's a bit overwhelming when an old fart ventures out to shop.
Just could not sleep. Up from 6am Friday, and finally crashed and burned at 10am Sat.
Being retired, and a home body, I am making it a rule to Not go off my home grounds but once a week.
Nearly 77, and so many going down, just trying to Not think about it, but not forgetting it.
Annie teaches 2nd grade, schools have Not closed as of yet. But some students have been absent for a week.
Stay safe guys.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

N4521U said:


> I guess I had an anxious episode the other night.
> All this kinda gets to me, it's a bit overwhelming when an old fart ventures out to shop.
> Just could not sleep. Up from 6am Friday, and finally crashed and burned at 10am Sat.
> Being retired, and a home body, I am making it a rule to Not go off my home grounds but once a week.
> ...


You too! Not sleeping well? Doesn't help. Sorry to nag at ya', but......


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## N4521U (Mar 21, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> You too! Not sleeping well? Doesn't help. Sorry to nag at ya', but......



I, like my mother, am a Night person. Before 11pm is as exception!
I haven't done an all nighter since I was in the sign business, 30 years ago.


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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

N4521U said:


> I, like my mother, am a Night person. Before 11pm is as exception!
> I haven't done an all nighter since I was in the sign business, 30 years ago.


I am partially chastised.

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## Elmas (Mar 21, 2020)

Coronavirus, il primario di Bergamo: «Atalanta-Valencia è stata una bomba biologica»


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## nsmekanik (Mar 21, 2020)

On the plus side of things the bog roll supply here has bounced back and the limitation have been upped from 2 to 4 per house hold. Not worried about getting laid off anytime soon as I've been working 12 hour shifts, which will hopefully end soon, and it looks like we're going to be working 6 days a week. Being the little introverts we are, self isolation is almost a life style choice, OK we're not that bad, but honestly we've got enough things to keep us occupied so aren't feeling the social pinch, mind you we are not truly self isolated, so even though we are physically high risk, we are socially at a lower risk.

As I'm reading through all this I truly am counting my blessings and offer my best wishes and condolences to everyone who is suffering through this.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 21, 2020)

Italy partially lockdown of production

worldwide go over 300k sicks cumulative and 13k deaths

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## Crimea_River (Mar 21, 2020)

Yesterday my son was given til Tuesday to leave his dorm at the University of Alberta. They are making sure no two or more people have to live together so those who are local and have somewhere to go need to vamoose so I have to drive up tomorrow 3 hours there and back to get him and his stuff. He shares his room with a guy from Mexico, who is able to stay because he has nowhere else to go.

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

This thing is really getting crazy. Best of luck to all here on this site( and everywhere of course). 
I still have to work 5 days a week, 12 hrs a day through this as one of the things we haul is trash which makes us a vital service( you want to really see this thing get out of hand try letting trash pile up for 8 weeks) but also exposes us to this big time. Kinda wish I was back at my last job just hauling sand and gravel right now......Oh well.

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## at6 (Mar 21, 2020)

rochie said:


> well kitchen has been scrubbed, all food suitable has been frozen.
> 
> my GM is insisting all staff report for work as normal until end of day monday or they will not be paid, restrictions are for the public not for staff, even though the hotel is empty
> 
> ...


Does GM stand for Gut Maggot?


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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

at6 said:


> Does GM stand for Gut Maggot?


Genuine Moron

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## at6 (Mar 21, 2020)

I'm thinking about rewriting "I've Got You Babe" to "I've Got Wuhan". I call it that because it came from there.
I tested positive and now they say
I must enter quarentine
If I step out of my front door
They yell and cause a scene
I've got Wuhan
DO DOOT TA DOOT
I've got Wuhan.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

at6 said:


> I'm thinking about rewriting "I've Got You Babe" to "I've Got Wuhan". I call it that because it came from there.
> I tested positive and now they say
> I must enter quarentine
> If I step out of my front door
> ...


Hopefully I'm misreading your humor and you have not tested positive.


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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

Just a thought on the proposition that we may be over reacting to this. At first I thought maybe we were, though I wasn't sure, but now I don't think we are. I think the reaction is justified and if anything short. Here's why........in my estimation we get one shot at getting this under control. If we don't and it returns yearly like the flu God help us. Especially the elderly. Society will be forced to except it due to the economic collapse that would result from yearly shutdowns of this nature. So better to go all out now than wish we did later. Imho

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

I didn't think about that angle. I just read the lyrics and got a chuckle. You ok At6?
( Larry I believe? Sorry im so bad at remembering names)

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## jetcal1 (Mar 21, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Just a thought on the proposition that we may be over reacting to this. At first I thought maybe we were, though I wasn't sure, but now I don't think we are. I think the reaction is justified and if anything short. Here's why........in my estimation we get one shot at getting this under control. If we don't and it returns yearly like the flu God help us. Especially the elderly. Society will be forced to except it due to the economic collapse that would result from yearly shutdowns of this nature. So better to go all out now than wish we did later. Imho


Normalcy bias is a wonderful thing. Ain't it?

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## michael rauls (Mar 21, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Normalcy bias is a wonderful thing. Ain't it?


Well I don't think it was normalcy bias on my part. That is something im very conscious to look out for as it is (or rather positioning against it) is an integral component of deep value investing which I favor.
For me I was looking at alot of conflicting stats so it was unclear the best course of action. Some people think that changing your mind when new information becomes available or admitting your not sure of the correct course of action until the body of evidence indicates such implies weakness or indecision......I don't. Sticking to your guns in the face of changing evidence or rushing to make decisions before the data is clear can be very costly.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Well I don't think it was normalcy bias on my part. That is something im very conscious to look out for as it is (or rather positioning against it) is an integral component of deep value investing which I favor.
> For me I was looking at alot of conflicting stats so it was unclear the best course of action. Some people think that changing your mind when new information becomes available or admitting your not sure of the correct course of action until the body of evidence indicates such implies weakness or indecision......I don't. Sticking to your guns in the face of changing evidence or rushing to make decisions before the data is clear can be very costly.


My point being it's hard sometimes to look past the conflicting stats and see what's going on. I'm hoping that things get back to normal again in about 7 weeks, although the conflicting data says it's more likely to be well into July.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

The US has moved into third for number of confirmed infections, and that number is doubling every 3 days...

of course that could also be attributed to more testing being done.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 308,463 Cases and 13,069 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Also, an interesting read here from this article that really touches on what I was saying last week about how our healthcare system will be bogged down. It’s upon us...

A top New York surgeon warns that the coronavirus has 'breached' hospital walls and infections could peak in 22 to 32 days


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> My point being it's hard sometimes to look past the conflicting stats and see what's going on. I'm hoping that things get back to normal again in about 7 weeks, although the conflicting data says it's more likely to be well into July.



I’ve pretty much been told to expect to work from home for at least 8 weeks.

St. Louis today issued a shelter in place order. They said we are now seeing community spreading in the city. It’s past containment now.

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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

rochie said:


> well kitchen has been scrubbed, all food suitable has been frozen.
> 
> my GM is insisting all staff report for work as normal until end of day monday or they will not be paid, restrictions are for the public not for staff, even though the hotel is empty
> 
> ...



He must be ex military or ex public service


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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> On a somewhat positive note that makes me feel a little better about the government action in this though perhaps not entirely thrilled, read yesterday the company, cure vac( I think I've got the name right), representatives of other companies that were at the conference, and multiple witnesses to the conversation all say this didn't happen.
> Could all those people be lying? Eh maybe but put that together with the fact the time line makes this story make no sense and I think we can pretty much rest assured that however comming up short our government response may be, at least that kinda stuff isn't going on.



Normally I would agree but there is also a story in the US press that a certain Presidents son-in-laws brother had just registered a company to make and sell a Corvid-19 vaccine before that meeting and both families are known to be control freaks and like large profits. And yes CureVac was the German company.


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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

rochie said:


> I dont see any difference between a restaurant and bar and a hotel restaurant and bar but hey, what do i know ?



except that the hotel guests, if any, have to feed. If no guests then I totally agree with you.


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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Best wishes to best of them.


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## ThomasP (Mar 22, 2020)

Hey guys,

I thought the following might be of interest and maybe answer a few questions:

Swine Flu (H1N1)
H1N1 (in humans) is spread from human to human by contact/proximity. (It is occasionally spread from swine to human and vise versa, but these cross-species mutations are relatively mild in comparison to the human-to-human type.)

H1N1 1918 pandemic
450,000,000-600,000,000 estimated infected worldwide
50,000,000-100,000,000 dead (6%-10% mortality rate)

H1N1 2009 pandemic
43,000,000-89,000,000 estimated infected worldwide (1st year only)
2,000 dead (1st year only) (2.2%-4.6% mortality rate)

H1N1 2015 epidemic
10,000 reported infected (India only)
775 dead reported (India only) (7.8% mortality rate)


West Nile virus
West Nile is spread from infected animals or infected humans to humans via mosquito bite. No mosquito, no spread. (There may have been a few cases in where it was transmitted via blood transfusion.)


Zika virus
Zika virus is spread from infected humans to humans via mosquito bite. No mosquito, no spread. (There may have been a few cases in where it was transmitted via blood transfusion.)


SARS-CoV (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

SARS-CoV February-July 2003 epidemic (pandemic?)
Transmission occurs from human to human, usually in the second week of infection. The majority of cases occurred in a health care environment due to poor sterile/isolation procedures.
8,000+ reported infected, primarily in China, but spread to 25+ countries)
780 dead reported
The overall mortality rate of ~10% was above 50% for those of age 60+.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to significantly effect the transmission of SARS-CoV. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


MERS-CoV (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

First known case occurred in Jordan in 2012. The outbreak has been confined in the Middle East for the most part, primarily to the Arabian Peninsula, though South Korea had an outbreak in 2015.

MERS-CoV is an equal opportunity virus, patients have ranged in age from younger than 1 to 99 years old, and most MERS-CoV patients develop severe respiratory illness with symptoms of fever, cough and shortness of breath, regardless of age. However, MERS-CoV (like SARS-CoV and COVID-19) is most likely to hit the elderly the hardest, with the large majority of deaths occurring in the 65 and older age group.

The overall mortality rate of MERS-CoV is extreme, substantially higher than that of SARS-CoV or COVID-19, at between 30% and 40%. For an as yet unknown reason, MERS-CoV does not transmit as readily as SARS-CoV and COVID-19.

During the South Korea outbreak, there were 38 deaths out of 186 confirmed cases, a mortality rate of 20%.

There have only been 2 confirmed cases in the US, with 0 US deaths.

The WHO and US CDC, along the equivalent agencies of other countries, are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to significantly effect the transmission of MERS-CoV. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
Transmission (in humans) occurs from human to human by contact/proximity.

Data from China shows that each COVID-19 patient seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. The average flu patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others. The same data set from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 cases are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about 10x times more often than flu. This is in line with US CDC findings that the hospitalization rate for the flu is 1%-2% depending on type.

As of 29 February 2020 there were 15 (22?) confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, with 1 resulting death (in Seattle WA).

As of 15 March 2020, out of 4,226 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, there were 44 resulting deaths, for a mortality rate of just over 1%. 80% of US deaths related to COVID-19 were in the age group of 65+, with 34% of deaths older than 85. There had been no US COVID-19 related deaths (as of March 16) of anyone under 19 years of age.

As of 21 March 2020, out of 26,867 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, there were 348 resulting deaths, for a mortality rate of just under 1.3%.

The mortality rate for the seasonal flu that comes around each year is .1%, or in other words, the US mortality rate for COVID-19 is 10x-13x that of the seasonal flu, so far.

Please note that warm weather does not appear to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, here is no evidence, to date, of any warm climate reducing effect.*


For anyone who thinks that the current behavior/actions of the WHO, US CDC, and the equivalent agencies of other countries are under- or over-estimating the potential danger of COVID-19:

SARS | Guidance in Absence of SARS-CoV Transmission Worldwide | CDC

Although the above link is to a document produced by the US CDC, the modern equivalent agencies in most other nations with capable healthcare systems, as well as the WHO, have very similar documents.

It is also telling in that - though the US has an agency (the CDC) specifically for such things, and possesses a massive modern healthcare system - even with this document from late-2003 indicating how seriously the CDC took a potential later SARS-CoV outbreak - the US was still seriously unprepared for the current COVID-19 outbreak. In this case, as far as I can tell, politics had little to do with the US experience. There was, however, a serious initial willingness to ignore the potential problems by the current government.

*A general rule is that temperatures of 60°C/140°F for 60 minutes or more are required to destroy most viruses. Except for direct exposure to sunlight on some surfaces (such as sand in the desert for one example) these temperatures do not generally occur under humans living conditions.


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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My two friends in Germany who tested positive have been keeping me updated. One has pretty severe symptoms, but is not requiring hospitalization. The other never developed symptoms at all, other than slightly higher temperature, which has since gone away. *Just shows you how it affects people differently*.



My grandchildren in Seattle developed severe fever and were tested. One result was negative and the other neither positive or negative requiring a retest that was again neither positive or negative. Then ten days back my son in law, mid 30's, developed severe lethargy and a bad cough. He runs lots of half marathons etc so this is definitely not normal.

He immediately self isolated and contacted his medical centre who said he could not be tested because his temperature was normal. He has gone down hill badly since then. Friday he actually got a telephone consultation with his doctor and a few seconds into the consult he had one of his coughing fits. The doc said that was a classic Covid-19 cough and prescribed medication for the cough. He is now sleeping properly, coughing far less and no longer looking grey so we are now expecting him to recover.


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## Marcel (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> My grandchildren in Seattle developed severe fever and were tested. One result was negative and the other neither positive or negative requiring a retest that was again neither positive or negative. Then ten days back my son in law, mid 30's, developed severe lethargy and a bad cough. He runs lots of half marathons etc so this is definitely not normal.
> 
> He immediately self isolated and contacted his medical centre who said he could not be tested because his temperature was normal. He has gone down hill badly since then. Friday he actually got a telephone consultation with his doctor and a few seconds into the consult he had one of his coughing fits. The doc said that was a classic Covid-19 cough and prescribed medication for the cough. He is now sleeping properly, coughing far less and no longer looking grey so we are now expecting him to recover.


Hope everything will turn out fine.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 22, 2020)

Yeah, whether he has the coronavirus or not, he seems very sick: I hope he pulls through


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## rochie (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> except that the hotel guests, if any, have to feed. If no guests then I totally agree with you.


agreed but why are they traveling when our government has asked people not to travel unless absolutely necessary.
and if people are travelling what about the risks to staff who serve them and the risk they pass it on to every one else in the hotel, we cannot work and separate effectively.

it just seems a bit strange to me but am glad i am still working and getting paid for now


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## rochie (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> He must be ex military or ex public service


neither, just trying to save his own arse i think !


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## rochie (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> My grandchildren in Seattle developed severe fever and were tested. One result was negative and the other neither positive or negative requiring a retest that was again neither positive or negative. Then ten days back my son in law, mid 30's, developed severe lethargy and a bad cough. He runs lots of half marathons etc so this is definitely not normal.
> 
> He immediately self isolated and contacted his medical centre who said he could not be tested because his temperature was normal. He has gone down hill badly since then. Friday he actually got a telephone consultation with his doctor and a few seconds into the consult he had one of his coughing fits. The doc said that was a classic Covid-19 cough and prescribed medication for the cough. He is now sleeping properly, coughing far less and no longer looking grey so we are now expecting him to recover.


hope he recovers quickly


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## Wayne Little (Mar 22, 2020)

State borders to be closed here on Tuesday, same with Western Australia, 2 states already have done so...


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## tomo pauk (Mar 22, 2020)

As if the virus is not enough, Zagreb was hit by an earthquake, 5.5 strong. Seems like there are no casualties, though, the main damage was on buildings from 19th century and older, including the cathedral.


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## stona (Mar 22, 2020)

There are still scare stories being published.

I understand that it is important to make people understand how serious the situation is, and it is serious, but I really don't think the scare stories do anything to alleviate the panic that seems to be spreading around the world.

A lot of people have died in Italy, every loss is a tragedy for the family concerned, BUT, as of Friday. the age of Italians dying of COVID-19 was averaging out at 78.5.
Almost 99 percent of them were also suffering from at least one pre-existing condition or ailment, perhaps not surprising given their age. 

Of the seven people that died in Wales overmight all were in the high-risk category, either over 70 or with underlying health conditions. 

I don't want our elderly to die prematurely anymore than anyone else. I just wish that some of the reporting would keep some perspective.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

stona said:


> There are still scare stories being published.
> 
> I understand that it is important to make people understand how serious the situation is, and it is serious, but I really don't think the scare stories do anything to alleviate the panic that seems to be spreading around the world.
> 
> ...



And the latest data actually shows that 30-40% of all coronavirus intensive care cases involve people under 50 with no underlying health issues. At least in the US. Experts are starting to change their tune on the elderly bit.

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## Elmas (Mar 22, 2020)

The problem is not only the most serious number of the daily deaths (more than 500 in Lombardy alone yesterday; a number very seldom achieved even in the worst (by the population point of view of course, not that of ‘Bomber Harris’ bombing raids over Italian towns in WWII) but the huge number of patients that need a very serious and lengthy medical treatment in the hospital.
It is true that the vast majority of the deaths are of elderly people that had a heavy smoker story behind ( in Italy in the '50, '60s and '70 practicaly every male smoked not less than 20 cigarettes/day) but there are deads and very serious ilnesses even in young sportsmen.


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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

Elmas said:


> The problem is not only the most serious number of the daily deaths (more than 500 in Lombardy alone yesterday; a number very seldom achieved even in the worst (by the population point of view of course, not that of ‘Bomber Harris’ bombing raids over Italian towns in WWII) but the huge number of patients that need a very serious and lengthy medical treatment in the hospital.
> It is true that the vast majority of the deaths are of elderly people that had a heavy smoker story behind ( in Italy in the '50, '60s and '70 practicaly every male smoked not less than 20 cigarettes/day) but there are deads and very serious ilnesses even in young sportsmen.


My place of work in Italy was bombed by US forces on 6 July 1944, the company address is still "PIAZZA CADUTI 6 LUGLIO 1944", and they have a Choral concert to commemorate it every anniversary, 274 people lost their lives.


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## stona (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And the latest data actually shows that 30-40% of all coronavirus intensive care cases involve people under 50 with no underlying health issues. At least in the US. Experts are starting to change their tune on the elderly bit.



That is not the sort of numbers being measured in the UK. I saw a CDC report showing that in the US 20% of the hospitalised patients and 12% of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44. 

Yes, some young and healthy people do develop serious symptoms, but it is not as high as one in three. I can't find any data for young healthy people succumbing in the UK, because at the moment only overall figures are published on government websites. What is published related to age or fitness is consistent statements that those dying are in high risk groups, and these are individual statements from the Health Trusts concerned, not some central government authority. The seven Welsh deaths were in three different Trusts for example.

The data from Italy is correct and persuasive because it is being accurately _and honestly_ collated from what is now, unfortunately, the largest source.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Normally I would agree but there is also a story in the US press that a certain Presidents son-in-laws brother had just registered a company to make and sell a Corvid-19 vaccine before that meeting and both families are known to be control freaks and like large profits. And yes CureVac was the German company.


If it was before the meeting as the story you site suggests it would make sense that it would be to manufacture the vaccine that the US had already had in the works for some time. Not sure that would be all that great either but not nearly as bad as what the first sorry suggested. If the story is true. Lots of........um...." less than accurate" journalism these days, from both sides.
Vaccines are not normally great profit makers. In fact as of about 5 years ago I know there were zero companies in the US making vaccines comercialy due to there inability to make a profit due to liability issues unique to the US. That may have changed and there may be one or two now, don't know. Still plenty of research and development but actual manufacturing had to be done abroad due to the aforementioned legal liability landscape unique to the U.S..


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## Marcel (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And the latest data actually shows that 30-40% of all coronavirus intensive care cases involve people under 50 with no underlying health issues. At least in the US. Experts are starting to change their tune on the elderly bit.


ditto here


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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And the latest data actually shows that 30-40% of all coronavirus intensive care cases involve people under 50 with no underlying health issues. At least in the US. Experts are starting to change their tune on the elderly bit.


A doctor here was explaining that the problem is interpretation of statistics. If you only look at deaths then it is affecting the old more. However there are also many in intensive care who are not old and don't die, these are the ones who therefore occupy a place in Intensive care the longest and play a huge part in swamping the medical service.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> My grandchildren in Seattle developed severe fever and were tested. One result was negative and the other neither positive or negative requiring a retest that was again neither positive or negative. Then ten days back my son in law, mid 30's, developed severe lethargy and a bad cough. He runs lots of half marathons etc so this is definitely not normal.
> 
> He immediately self isolated and contacted his medical centre who said he could not be tested because his temperature was normal. He has gone down hill badly since then. Friday he actually got a telephone consultation with his doctor and a few seconds into the consult he had one of his coughing fits. The doc said that was a classic Covid-19 cough and prescribed medication for the cough. He is now sleeping properly, coughing far less and no longer looking grey so we are now expecting him to recover.


Thank God he is doing better. I keep seeing stories about doctors sending people home with serious symptoms, like they can't breathe, or refusing to see them in the first place. One man who vidio showed obviously needed some maner of supportive care due to his inability to catch his breath was sent home.....and died. This was by a Kieser doctor/ facility( which in my experience are usually pretty good but not this time apparently).


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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

pbehn said:


> A doctor here was explaining that the problem is interpretation of statistics. If you only look at deaths then it is affecting the old more. However there are also many in intensive care who are not old and don't die, these are the ones who therefore occupy a place in Intensive care the longest and play a huge part in swamping the medical service.


Additionally, as the infections increase, more health workers become infected. One London hospital has 3 doctors infected already, very quickly the pre pandemic facilities are just enough for the health service to treat itself when the infections rise. I think 10% of Italians receiving treatment at present are health workers or doctors.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

stona said:


> That is not the sort of numbers being measured in the UK. I saw a CDC report showing that in the US 20% of the hospitalised patients and 12% of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44.
> 
> Yes, some young and healthy people do develop serious symptoms, but it is not as high as one in three. I can't find any data for young healthy people succumbing in the UK, because at the moment only overall figures are published on government websites. What is published related to age or fitness is consistent statements that those dying are in high risk groups, and these are individual statements from the Health Trusts concerned, not some central government authority. The seven Welsh deaths were in three different Trusts for example.
> 
> The data from Italy is correct and persuasive because it is being accurately _and honestly_ collated from what is now, unfortunately, the largest source.



Yeah, when did you read that report, because that is not case. The CDC is reporting that 38% of people needing hospitalization in the United States are under 55 years old.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...states-according-new-cdc-data/?outputType=amp


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

pbehn said:


> A doctor here was explaining that the problem is interpretation of statistics. If you only look at deaths then it is affecting the old more. However there are also many in intensive care who are not old and don't die, these are the ones who therefore occupy a place in Intensive care the longest and play a huge part in swamping the medical service.



Absolutely.

Hense why all these stupid 20 year old college kids hanging around the beach saying “I’m young, if I get I get it” are dumb as shit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

Then you have a large segment of idiots here in the rural areas where I live that rely too much on Fox News for facts. They were told that this was all a hoax a few weeks ago, and therefor took that as gospel. All you hear from them is that it is a hoax to bring down the economy and the POTUS (I will not say anything further on thus due to forum rules). They are refusing to social distance because of this saying that there are no infections, that no one actually knows anyone who is sick, and therefore the hoax is fact. (I personally now know 3 people so that debunks their ignorant theory).

Anyhow, I think in times like this the idiots come out of the wood works and shine. I think we should take all these conspiracy theory nutjobs and 20 year old kniw it alls who want to hang out on the beach by the thousands, and put them in a locked stadium together. Let nature take it course...

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

Just read a story that a large part of the reason for shortages of basic mecical supplies is due to supply chain disruptions in China( read we outsourced manufacturing of these critically important items so as to maximize profit now we will pay the price for being so short sighted). 
Examples the article gave were hand sanitizer shipments down 50% and the last shipment of n95 masks was over a month ago. Usually they are rolling in constantly of course.
It's perhaps abouve my pay grade to define exactly what they are but when this thing is all over shurly there are many lessons to be learned.

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> Hense why all these stupid 20 year old college kids hanging around the beach saying “I’m young, if I get I get it” are dumb as shit.


Well it isnt just confined to the young. 3 UK members of parliament have got it already, one of them just said she will oppose any removal of civil liberties. She is 69, her husband is also an MP and he is 70. I don't care if they don't care if they get infected, I do care about them infecting other people. With their "civil liberties" nonsense they are ignoring the obvious fact that the first civil liberty is to actually stay alive. ALL politicians and press all over the world think it doesn't apply to them.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Then you have a large segment of idiots here in the rural areas where I live that rely too much on Fox News for facts. They were told that this was all a hoax a few weeks ago, and therefor took that as gospel. All you hear from them is that it is a hoax to bring down the economy and the POTUS (I will not say anything further on thus due to forum rules). They are refusing to social distance because of this saying that there are no infections, that no one actually knows anyone who is sick, and therefore the hoax is real. (I personally now know 3 people so that debunks their ignorant theory).
> 
> Anyhow, I think in times like this the idiots come out of the wood works and shine. I think we should take all these conspiracy theory nutjobs and 20 year old kniw it alls who want to hang out on the beach by the thousands, and put them in a locked stadium together. Let nature take it course...


Well I think people are prone to believe what they want to believe and that is usually what re enforces the beliefs that they already hold and will seek out media that will tell them what they want to hear.. It is a universal human quality but varies widely by individual,(There are societal and origin of humanity reasons for this but won't go into that here) at one end of the spectrum are people who yes may be drawn to a particular point of view all things being equal but will rapidly adapt as new circumstances become apparent. At the other end are those that will cling to pre conceived beliefs even unto there own demise.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> Hense why all these stupid 20 year old college kids hanging around the beach saying “I’m young, if I get I get it” are dumb as shit.



I was pi$$ed two days ago here when a fit, young woman saying something along the lines "but I must go to the gym, since I don't have the same machines and weights at home" on the national TV. That was so selfish and arrogant. Want to do workout during lockdown? There is plenty of workout excercises you can do with using nothing but your body and and a lot of items found in any home, like chairs, walls etc. One can do push-ups, stand-ups, that excercise to gain 6-pack etc. Family/home members can help. But no, she needs to go to the gym.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 22, 2020)

Are you making fun of me?

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

tomo pauk said:


> I was pi$$ed two days ago here when a fit, young woman saying something along the lines "but I must go to the gym, since I don't have the same machines and weights at home" on the national TV. That was so selfish and arrogant. Want to do workout during lockdown? There is plenty of workout excercises you can do with using nothing but your body and and a lot of items found in any home, like chairs, walls etc. One can do push-ups, stand-ups, that excercise to gain 6-pack etc. Family/home members can help. But no, she needs to go to the gym.


On radio someone said "footballers wont be able to get their hair dressers to fly in to cut their hair". In this time of crisis THAT is exactly what "thinking of others" doesn't mean.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

Well no band practice today. Looks like our singer has it.


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## at6 (Mar 22, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Hopefully I'm misreading your humor and you have not tested positive.


I don't have it and God willing, it won't get me. I'm following all of the guide lines so that the cooties can't get me.

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I didn't think about that angle. I just read the lyrics and got a chuckle. You ok At6?
> ( Larry I believe? Sorry im so bad at remembering names)


I'm doing very well. I wouldn't have created the lyrics if I actually had it. Even as a child I had the philosophy of laugh or cry. I chose to laugh.
Larry

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## Marcel (Mar 22, 2020)

Some people still don’t seem to understand it. The mortality figures at this moment don’t mean anything. 
Here in The Netherlands, a rough figure of around 20%of the known infected are on the intensive care. This consists of roughly 50:50 older than 50 and younger than 50. Around 15% of the people in IC have died until now. Yes, all death are over 63 years old, but remember this is with enough IC beds and breathing aid machines. We are estimated to run out of those somewhere next week, given the speed the virus is spreading. So what will happen then? I think we can safely say that most people ending up in IC, even the younger ones would not have survived without breathing aid. And then I’m not even talking about patients with other illnesses that can not be optimally treated because of the pressure on the hospitals at this moment.

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2020)

To Hell with mortality rates. I'd rather recover. Oh, and I'm 70 years old with C A D.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We are estimated to run out of [ICU beds] somewhere next week, given the speed the virus is spreading. [E]ven the younger ones would not have survived without breathing aid. And then I’m not even talking about patients with other illnesses that can not be optimally treated because of the pressure on the hospitals at this moment.


Does anybody know what equipment is "usually all you need" besides a breathing machine?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Some people still don’t seem to understand it. The mortality figures at this moment don’t mean anything.
> Here in The Netherlands, a rough figure of around 20%of the known infected are on the intensive care. This consists of roughly 50:50 older than 50 and younger than 50. Around 15% of the people in IC have died until now. Yes, all death are over 63 years old, but remember this is with enough IC beds and breathing aid machines. We are estimated to run out of those somewhere next week, given the speed the virus is spreading. So what will happen then? I think we can safely say that most people ending up in IC, even the younger ones would not have survived without breathing aid. And then I’m not even talking about patients with other illnesses that can not be optimally treated because of the pressure on the hospitals at this moment.



It’s amazing people don’t seem to get this.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 22, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 5,476, sicks cumulative 59,138, recoveries 7,024, tests 258,402
fatality rate 9,3%
mortality rate 91 per million

news: in Italy you can only leave your municipality for work or for health or emergency reasons


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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Some people still don’t seem to understand it. The mortality figures at this moment don’t mean anything.
> So what will happen then? I think we can safely say that most people ending up in IC, even the younger ones would not have survived without breathing aid. And then I’m not even talking about patients with other illnesses that can not be optimally treated because of the pressure on the hospitals at this moment.



There are none so blind as those who will not see

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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Well no band practice today. Looks like our singer has it.



Keep safe and my best wishes for your friend and colleague

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## MiTasol (Mar 22, 2020)

Cartoonists views on hoarding and on quarantine

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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Just read a story that a large part of the reason for shortages of basic mecical supplies is due to supply chain disruptions in China( read we outsourced manufacturing of these critically important items so as to maximize profit now we will pay the price for being so short sighted).
> Examples the article gave were hand sanitizer shipments down 50% and the last shipment of n95 masks was over a month ago. Usually they are rolling in constantly of course.
> It's perhaps abouve my pay grade to define exactly what they are but when this thing is all over shurly there are many lessons to be learned.


China have now sent their experienced people to Italy and Europe, it wouldn't surprise me if they are sending most of their manufacturing capacity there too, where the need is greatest.

As for hand sanitiser, the US must have capacity to manufacture it: here in NZ distilleries have taken to making it using the 'heads and tails' of the distillation process (the first and last runs off the still).


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> As for hand sanitiser, the US must have capacity to manufacture it: here in NZ distilleries have taken to making it using the 'heads and tails' of the distillation process (the first and last runs off the still).



there are several distilleries here in Colorado doing this right now and giving free bottles to medical workers and first responders


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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> there are several distilleries here in Colorado doing this right now and giving free bottles to medical workers and first responders


Good, Someone like the Jim Beam must have a huge capacity to manufacture it. Here the limiting factor is getting the gelling agent.

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## Marcel (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Well no band practice today. Looks like our singer has it.


Same here. Our drummer has it.


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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Same here. Our drummer has it.


Good luck to him and to you. Hope we all get through this ok.


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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

Oh, more news that might be helpful. I read This morning that during the 1918 flu outbreak several hospitals found that when they were out of space and literally had to put patients outside or in makeshift tents( the pictures shown looked like there was lots of fresh air ventilation through open sides and some sun early and late) that the mortality rate of the seriously I'll dropped from about 40% to about 14%. 
Apparently this is pretty well documented and occurred at several different hospitals as un probable as it sounds. Don't know if the same dynamics might exist with the Covid19 virus but I thought it was worth mentioning. 
A little fresh air and sunshine if the weather allows. Another one of those things that may help and certainly can't hurt.

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## mikewint (Mar 22, 2020)

A wise Precaution to take in these times:

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## herman1rg (Mar 22, 2020)

mikewint said:


> A wise Precaution to take in these times:


That's actually quite funny

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

Fauci: U.S. 'looking very closely at' severe coronavirus symptoms in younger Americans

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Oh, more news that might be helpful. I read This morning that during the 1918 flu outbreak several hospitals found that when they were out of space and literally had to put patients outside or in makeshift tents( the pictures shown looked like there was lots of fresh air ventilation through open sides and some sun early and late) that the mortality rate of the seriously I'll dropped from about 40% to about 14%.
> Apparently this is pretty well documented and occurred at several different hospitals as un probable as it sounds. Don't know if the same dynamics might exist with the Covid19 virus but I thought it was worth mentioning.
> A little fresh air and sunshine if the weather allows. Another one of those things that may help and certainly can't hurt.


Since ancient times hospitals were distrusted, Florence Nightingale became famous by making army hospitals actually safer than staying on the battlefield. During the recent H5N1 virus infection in UK it was fount that health service employees mainly administrators were spreading the infection within and between hospitals. I was in hospital for a week in 1971 in an "old school" hospital, the windows were always open during the day. In a modern UK hospital you cant open the windows.

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## rochie (Mar 22, 2020)

Some big companies are announcing they are shutting down over here tonight, wondering if they know something is coming ?

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Fauci: U.S. 'looking very closely at' severe coronavirus symptoms in younger Americans


It seems to be a consistent dynamic that for whatever reason as more data becomes available the age curve keeps flattening.

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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> It seems to be a consistent dynamic that for whatever reason as more data becomes available the age curve keeps flattening.


Possibly the older die faster, while younger, fitter people hold out for a few more weeks.

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Possibly the older die faster, while younger, fitter people hold out for a few more weeks.


 Yes, but not all the young are fit, an 18 yr old with health issues died today in UK. Many young fit people recover, after weeks of intensive care. When the system runs out of intensive care beds then patients are triaged and choices made, those with the best chance of recovery are treated so even more old and sick people die. Due to patient confidentiality the UK health service dont give specifics on "underlying health issues" sometimes relatives do via the press.

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

Some of "the young" think they are fit when they aren't. The son of my wifes friend found out he had leukaemia when he signed his apprentice football contract and had a medical, on the beep tests he was at the top in the club (Middlesbrough) which was in the Premier League at the time. People with Leukaemia are vulnerable to CV19.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> It seems to be a consistent dynamic that for whatever reason as more data becomes available the age curve keeps flattening.



Yup


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Possibly the older die faster, while younger, fitter people hold out for a few more weeks.



The younger are not seeing fatality rates increase, just that the age gaps for serious infection is narrowing. As Marcel has pointed out its not about the fatality rate.


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## mikewint (Mar 22, 2020)

Yesterday 3/21 there were 118 positive COVID-19 in Arkansas today, one day later that has jumped to 165
Tested positive:


10 children
62 adults aged 65 and older
*93 adults aged 19-64*
19 patients are currently being hospitalized with 12 in the ICU, 6 of those patients are on a ventilator.
Gov. Hutchinson said the state received only 25% of the personal protective equipment (PPE), which includes gloves, masks, etc. it requested from the federal government.

"After we exhaust that supply, we are on our own."


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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Possibly the older die faster, while younger, fitter people hold out for a few more weeks.


That had not occurred to me. It may very well at least be a part of the reason for the flattening of the curve. It makes sense....... unfortunately.


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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> It seems to be a consistent dynamic that for whatever reason as more data becomes available the age curve keeps flattening.


This was explained today my the health officer for UK, in the initial stages the first people to be affected and die are those who are old and sick already. As time passes those who are younger and or less sick stay longer in intensive care before they recover or dont. It is only a matter of weeks since European countries recorded the first deaths.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

I saw a chart in an article a few hours ago that showed the percentage rate of increase acceleration has rolled over world wide. In other words it's still increasing but the curve in the parabola is becoming less steep. This is a very forward-looking and tricky statistic but often gives a glimpse into the future of trends. At least in economics( where I am familiar with it).
Perhaps a glimmer of hope that all these efforts will pay off shortly. .....lets hope.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 22, 2020)

Bergamo area Mayors claim that actually deaths from COVID-19 are hundreds more of official count, talking of their communities

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## pbehn (Mar 22, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Bergamo area Mayors claim that actually deaths from COVID-19 are hundreds more of official count, talking of their communities


There was a medical guy from Italy explaining various reasons people don't go onto the official statistics.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 22, 2020)

The partial closure of production is postponed to 25th March, because of industrialist association pressure

On the casualties of Bergamo area, left activist talking of thousands more deaths


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## jetcal1 (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Well no band practice today. Looks like our singer has it.


Best of luck to him.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Same here. Our drummer has it.


Best of luck to him.

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

A Dutch scientists at the university of Groningen just announce he has developed aerosol chloroquine. Says it imediatly stops the virus replicating in the lungs and there fore the damage. Says it will be ready in two weeks. Sounds like maybe not a cure in absolute terms but one in the way that really matters the vast majority of the time i.e. lung function.
Lets keep our fingers crossed this actually pans out.

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## ThomasP (Mar 22, 2020)

Hey TheMadPenguin,

re your post#753: "Does anybody know what equipment is "usually all you need" besides a breathing machine?"

The supplies needed, for the most part, are in line with any severe illness that requires admission to the hospital. Some examples are those needed to set up an IV or blood draw with an IV:

This:
Sterile Gloves
Tourniquet
Antiseptic solution
Local anesthetic solution (maybe)
2" x 2" Gauze Pad (2x)

Plus the following if IV set-up:
IV Needle/Plastic Cannula
Tape
Transparent Dressing (tegaderm)
Sticker (stick-on label)
Saline flush (normally in pre-filled syringes)
IV Catheter
IV Extension or Cap
IV Tubing
Vent/Drip Chamber
Roller Clamp
IV Piggy Back (usually a Y-type) (1x or more)
Filter (sometimes)
IV Pump/Monitor
IV Fluids (ie Saline, Anti-Biotics, Anti-Coagulants, etc.)

Plus the following if blood draws:
IV Needle/Plastic Cannula
1-mL Syringe with a 30-gauge Needle (typical needle size, but can vary)
Adaptor
Vacuum Collection Tubes
Sticker(s) (stick-on labels for collection tubes

(I am working from memory here so I am sure I have left some bits and pieces out)

In addition, within the current environment, you can figure a relative high level of PPE will be needed. PPE will include Sterile Gloves, Masks, Face Shields, Gowns, etc. The usage rate will be a lot higher than normal.

Several friends work at one of the local larger hospital systems. When it became apparent that there was a problem brewing (beginning of March) the hospital placed an initial order of 2,500,000 masks in addition to what they normally order. They have received about 200,000 of that order to date. They use somewhere around 10,000 each day under normal conditions. They have devised a system to sterilize/recycle the masks for reuse.

Additional materials may be needed for any pre-existing/underlying conditions, varying from case to case.

As most people are aware, supplies of COVID-19 test kits are in short supply, as are the materials needed for the Labs to process the test samples.

There are also many test kits that are often used in 'normal' day-to-day operations. The pre-existing conditions in many patients will demand increased usage of these kits and the associated processing materials. Also, previously healthy patients will develop secondary infections/illnesses that will require tests to determine their natures. Testing for the pre-existing conditions and new secondary infections/illnesses will require even greater use of Blood Draws and subsequent use of IVs for treatments, beyond that required due to the simple increase in patient numbers.

The above are just a few examples.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 22, 2020)

If you're sent away from the ICU, could a CPAP help in lieu of a respirator/ventilator?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2020)

Well the first person in our company has died from the virus. Granted at another facility in another state, but still, damn...


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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2020)

Well, the whole of New Zealand is on lockdown as of Wednesday night. We're currently on severe restrictions.


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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well the first person in our company has died from the virus. Granted at another facility in another state, but still, damn...


Really sorry to hear that. I hope there won't be another. We have been very fortunate both at our company and in our area. Nobody at our company has gotten seriously ill yet dispite our exposure to biohazards in general( one of the things we haul is trash) and between LA and Orange county last I heard there were a total of 5 fatalities after it being here several weeks.
I guess we're fortunate that for whatever reason we have been mostly spared but at the same time its heart wrenching to watch what is happening to other areas not so fortunate( if you can call it that) all over the world.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 22, 2020)

Crazy shit Chris - sorry to hear that.

I was thinking today - Many of us lived in a era where at times we lived on the brink of nuclear annihilation, now we are facing another cataclysmic scenario possibly caused by bats. Is this a bad dream?!?

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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Crazy shit Chris - sorry to hear that.
> 
> I was thinking today - Many of us lived in a era where at times we lived on the brink of nuclear annihilation, now we are facing another cataclysmic scenario possibly caused by bats. Is this a bad dream?!?


It does seem like a bad dream doesn't it.
Sometimes when I'm watching the proceedings I get that " is this really happening" kinda feeling.

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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> It does seem like a bad dream doesn't it.
> Sometimes when I'm watching the proceedings I get that " is this really happening" kinda feeling.


I had that feeling when picking my son up from school today. It'll be at least 4 weeks until he gets back there


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## michael rauls (Mar 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I had that feeling when picking my son up from school today. It'll be at least 4 weeks until he gets back there


Everything is getting so crazy. Now people I know are getting sick( though none of them seriously thank God). Good luck to you and your son. Hopefully you come through this unscathed.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 22, 2020)

We're all facing a crisis inherited from China.
China got it right off the bat.
</pun>

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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> there are several distilleries here in Colorado doing this right now and giving free bottles to medical workers and first responders



Remember those two articles I posted from the *American Society of Microbiologists.* 

You need to *active hand scrub for four minutes with the best hand sanitizers *or thirty seconds with saline. Yes the testing was done with influenza A but that was, until now, the most contagious virus known.

We carry a 2 litre spray bottle of saline (water with salt added) with us and a stash of hand toweling. Slightly messy but a damned site better than hand sanitizers. 

*Situations Leading to Reduced Effectiveness of Current Hand Hygiene against Infectious Mucus from Influenza Virus-Infected Patients*

*Towards Better Hand Hygiene for Flu Prevention*


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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Crazy shit Chris - sorry to hear that.
> 
> I was thinking today - Many of us lived in a era where at times we lived on the brink of nuclear annihilation, now we are facing another cataclysmic scenario possibly caused by bats. Is this a bad dream?!?



Interesting that you raised this because I was about to post a TED talk on just that that Bill Gates made on April 4th, 2015. He starts his talk with one of the food canisters that people stored food in during those days and finishes basically predicting what is happening now.


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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

Sign of the times?


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## stona (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Fauci: U.S. 'looking very closely at' severe coronavirus symptoms in younger Americans



There is a concerted campaign here to make younger people understand the risks. They simply don't take it seriously and while they might not be at much risk themselves, they put others who are at risk in danger. The problem with such scare tactics is that they scare everyone else as well.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Remember those two articles I posted from the *American Society of Microbiologists.*
> 
> You need to *active hand scrub for four minutes with the best hand sanitizers *or thirty seconds with saline. Yes the testing was done with influenza A but that was, until now, the most contagious virus known.
> 
> ...



Sorry MiTasol, it is true that English is no my mother language, actually i don't speak English just understand some writen English, but i don't find where they tell to use saline as sanitizers, as i understand they tell the soap and water are better of alcohol based sanitizers versus virus in mucus


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Sorry MiTasol, it is true that English is no my mother language, actually i don't speak English just understand some writen English, but i don't find where they tell to use saline as sanitizers, as i understand they tell the soap and water are better of alcohol based sanitizers versus virus in mucus


Advice in UK is that soap and water is best, but hand sanitisers are portable, so next best.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Sign of the times?


What's with the toilet paper thing? Honestly, if you have flowing water, you don't need to worry all that much, just go in the shower, turn it on and spread your cheeks. It should blast everything off just fine.

I kind of first used this when I had one of those "whole rollers" -- you know, you wipe, and wipe, and wipe, and it won't all come off. So, I stood in the shower -- it had one of those nozzles you could take off the holder, and move it around, so I put it a few inches from where the sun don't shine and blasted away. A few seconds later, I went back to find it got rid of everything the paper wouldn't.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

stona said:


> There is a concerted campaign here to make younger people understand the risks. They simply don't take it seriously and while they might not be at much risk themselves, they put others who are at risk in danger. The problem with such scare tactics is that they scare everyone else as well.



It’s not a scare tactic. The stats that several of us have posted have shown you otherwise.


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## Marcel (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Sorry MiTasol, it is true that English is no my mother language, actually i don't speak English just understand some writen English, but i don't find where they tell to use saline as sanitizers, as i understand they tell the soap and water are better of alcohol based sanitizers versus virus in mucus


Here for instance


> Our clinical study showed that EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

My wife’s cousin over in Germany has it now. The bad part is that he lives in the same house as my wife’s 87 year old Grandmother.

Also, although 53% of my company is able to work from home, there are many that have to go to work. One of the guys that does has tested positive. The whole building was sanitized this weekend while his coworkers were off.


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## MIflyer (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> If in the end it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I'm going to be seriousyly p*ssed.



This reminds me a story of a lady in Oklahoma who really did not understand the difference between a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning. When a Tornado Watch was issued she would go down into her basement with a portable radio and a flashlight and wait until it was over. After several such instances, she began to call the weather bureau each time and complain that she had been frightened and forced to sit in her basement with no reason, but she kept taking the same precautions.

Then one day there was Tornado Watch, and as she sat in her basement a tornado struck her home and destroyed it. Unharmed, she pushed her way up out of the debris, went to a neighbor's home, called the weather bureau, and said, "Well, dammit, that's more like it!" 

So I guess some people will feel better if they catch the disease.

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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

A word of caution involving zinc. Several people here, including myself have posted that zinc appears to be helpful for Covid19 patients. From what I read the half life of zinc in the human body is 280 days.
What this means is a little zinc good, huge doses bad. This is not a if a little is good then alot is better situation. A single low dose supplement is probably ideal. 
The potential for Zinc toxisity exists for large doses taken for an extended period of time. Vitamin D extremely large doses can be hard on the liver.
It's probably ok to take a sumwhat larger dose for a few weeks if one actually does get sick. I'm gonna do some research later and see if I can find the dose they were using to good affect in South Korea. Have to head off to work right now.
Hope this helps.


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## Marcel (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> If in the end it turns out to be much ado about nothing, I'm going to be seriousyly p*ssed.


Have you looked at Italy and Spain?


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

worldwide exceeded 350k cases, 15k deaths, 100k recoveries


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## rochie (Mar 23, 2020)

I am sat in the hotel where i work waiting for my manager to finish a conference call with head office and the other hotels in the group.

Dont know yet if were closing or staying open.
Dont know if employment being terminated or job being kept with government assistance.

Very worrying.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Here for instance



as i understand there they tell that alcohol based sanitizers are inferior to fight the virus in mucus comparate their fight capability in virus in saline not that saline is a better sanitizers


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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> as i understand there they tell that alcohol based sanitizers are inferior to fight the virus in mucus comparate their fight capability in virus in saline not that saline is a better sanitizers


I keep hearing healthcare professionals say that hand washing with soap and water for at least 30 seconds is supperior to alcohol based hand sanitizer for this.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Have you looked at Italy and Spain?



Since I posted that I had Italy but not Spain. Between October 2019 and January 23rd 2020 there were 2,768,000 confirmed cases of the flu in Italy. In the 2nd week of January there were 488,000 new confirmed cases in that week alone, however there were only 240 deaths associated with it.

Source: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

In the US, the CDC estimates that almost 31,000,000 Americans got the flu with 210,000 to 370,000 people requiring hospitalization with 34,200 expecting to die. 

Source: This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year

My biggest concern is this being blown out of proportion? 50k causes of Corona viruses is on the verge of shutting down the Italian Medical system that handled almost new 500k causes of the flu in one week and was already handling the ones from the prior weeks?

I'm a nerd so pretty big on facts and data and it seams emotions are driving the narative more than data. Reglardess, I feel for the people having to deal with this and regardless of the infection or death rates of this vs the fly, it still is tragic for those having to bury loved ones.


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> I'm a nerd so pretty big on facts and data and it seams emotions are driving the narative more than data. Reglardess, I feel for the people having to deal with this and regardless of the infection or death rates of this vs the fly, it still is tragic for those having to bury loved ones.


Seems to me you are choosing the facts you like.


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## swampyankee (Mar 23, 2020)

Using the current estimate of about 1.5% fatality rate, and the estimated 0.1% fatality rate of the flu that killed about 34,000 people in the US last year, we should expect at least 500,000 deaths in the US.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I keep hearing healthcare professionals say that hand washing with soap and water for at least 30 seconds is supperior to alcohol based hand sanitizer for this.


full agree, but all start from the MiTasol words: 
"You need to *active hand scrub for four minutes with the best hand sanitizers *or thirty seconds with saline. Yes the testing was done with influenza A but that was, until now, the most contagious virus known.
We carry a 2 litre spray bottle of saline (water with salt added) with us and a stash of hand toweling. Slightly messy but a damned site better than hand sanitizer"

where he claim that saline is a better sanitizers of alcohol based sanitizers


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## stona (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It’s not a scare tactic. The stats that several of us have posted have shown you otherwise.



This is not the apocalypse. Hundreds of thousands will die worldwide, and the young will comprise a very, very small percentage of them. The very young will be a vanishingly small percentage.

Did someone post the story of the caravan and the plague here? I read it somewhere. It is very pertinent.

I'm not so young, I fall between the young and the high risk groups. The virus might kill me! If it doesn't something else will, sooner or later, hopefully later; nobody lives forever. Sic transit gloria mundi. I refuse to get caught up in the panic and hysteria and it is the noise on social media (including this forum) and our pervasive 24 hour news networks that contributes to it. I will follow current advice, limit social interaction etc. but I will continue with my life as best I can

There is a concerted campaign to force people, particularly young people to comply with current advice and restrictions. In the Midlands the case of a previously healthy 36 year old nurse, who is very gravely ill, has been used to this effect. I would wish her all the best and I hope she recovers.

I happened to see the latest statistics from the Netherlands this morning. There were 545 new infections, taking the total to 4,749. The death toll rose to 213, with victims aged between 55 and 97. *The average age was 82,* even older than in Italy. This disease is much more lethal to older people and that is why younger people should be following the rules.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2020)

This might make interesting reading. MITRE is a not-for-profit company that runs Federally-funded Research and Development Centers in the U.S. that span national security, homeland security, healthcare and more. The paper was authored by people with deep domain expertise, many of whom have worked previous epidemics/pandemics. They are not "selling" anything and the organization is not prone to exaggeration - MITRE's mantra is to work in the public interest. 

https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/publications/COVID-19_MITRE_Action_Paper_March-2020.pdf

A key observation relates to the "doubling time" it takes for the number of cases to...well, double. It is this exponential growth that is the key problem because of its potential to swamp healthcare providers. Yes, there may well be more flu victims that COVID-19 victims but the key problem is the latter group are happening all at once, in large numbers, and victims who require hospitalization represent a significant increase ontop of "routine" cases.

The challenge is not the death rate. The challenge is the need to rapidly spin up to cope with those being hospitalized. Few healthcare systems have much excess capacity and, even then, there's a need for specialized equipment (e.g. ventilators). Even just a few thousand extra intensive care patients happening all at once will strain resources to breaking point in most parts of the developed world. 

The measures being adopted are all aimed at trying to slow the spread of the disease to give healthcare providers more time to cope with the influx: 200 people arriving over 2 weeks is much easier to deal with than 200 people in one night. It's a simple capacity problem.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

I think it is obvious this is not blown out of proportion. The stats only show confirmed cases. The authorities estimate the actual numbers are closer 10+ times, because we cannot sufficiently test everyone.

One has to understand how to look at the numbers, and interpret what they mean.
If 1% require intensive care, our healthcare system breaks. Doctors are warning this will happen in the next two weeks. Once that happens, the fatality rates will increase because we do not have the ventilators and capacity to treat. Hospitals will be performing triage.

We are Italy number two because we did not take this serious early enough when we should have.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

stona said:


> This is not the apocalypse. Hundreds of thousands will die worldwide, and the young will comprise a very, very small percentage of them. The very young will be a vanishingly small percentage.
> 
> Did someone post the story of the caravan and the plague here? I read it somewhere. It is very pertinent.
> 
> ...



Stona you are purposely ignoring the point. It has nothing to do with death rates. It does not matter if the young die or not. As more and more people get sick, regardless of age, our hospitals and resources become overwhelmed. We only have so many ventilators, and ICU’s. Once this happens death rates will increase across all age groups because we cannot simply treat everyone.

Young people need to realize they are just as susceptible to severe symptoms and take precautions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

I think it is time to round up every person refusing to take precautions, social distance, as well as those that believe its a hoax or not serious and throw them together in the locked stadium. Lesson the burden on the healthcare system and let nature take its course.




Obviously I am kidding...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

Here is the thing people. Right now fatalities are mostly limited to elderly and those with underlying health conditions because the rest are able to get the intensive care they need. Once the system is overwhelmed and younger people with severe symptoms are not able to get treatment their fatality rates will increase too. Why? Because they are not getting the necessary treatment due to lack of resources.

You should be looking at the numbers getting sick, not fatality rates right now. Each tells a different story.

I believe people need to relax, and not panic. Panic is the worst thing you can do. Pretending this is nothing, and comparing it to past pandemics such as the flu though is wrong too however. They are not the same.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well the first person in our company has died from the virus. Granted at another facility in another state, but still, damn...


Condolences to the family. Please take care of your family and yourself.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> What's with the toilet paper thing? Honestly, if you have flowing water, you don't need to worry all that much, just go in the shower, turn it on and spread your cheeks. It should blast everything off just fine.
> 
> I kind of first used this when I had one of those "whole rollers" -- you know, you wipe, and wipe, and wipe, and it won't all come off. So, I stood in the shower -- it had one of those nozzles you could take off the holder, and move it around, so I put it a few inches from where the sun don't shine and blasted away. A few seconds later, I went back to find it got rid of everything the paper wouldn't.



Do we have "over-sharing" or TMI emojis? If not, we need them!

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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

There is a 28 yr old footballer got it and recovered, but he was unable to breathe unaided for a week. The UK has ordered 30,000 ventillators. At present 12.5 % of intensive care beds are occupied by CV patients, other people who are seriously ill don't just go away, you can stop scheduled operations but many of those are obviously important too. When the situation is overwhelmed you have dark choices to make, do you take an old man off a ventilator to put the young footballer, do you just stop treating people over a certain age?

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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> I am sat in the hotel where i work waiting for my manager to finish a conference call with head office and the other hotels in the group.
> 
> Dont know yet if were closing or staying open.
> Dont know if employment being terminated or job being kept with government assistance.
> ...


They'd be nutz to terminate. Laid off, furloughed, etc.? that maybe be a possibility. Best of luck to you and your yours.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Do we have "over-sharing" or TMI emojis? If not, we need them!



Yes we do.


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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yes we do.




Is this it?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

pbehn said:


> There is a 28 yr old footballer got it and recovered, but he was unable to breathe unaided for a week. The UK has ordered 30,000 ventillators. At present 12.5 % of intensive care beds are occupied by CV patients, other people who are seriously ill don't just go away, you can stop scheduled operations but many of those are obviously important too. When the situation is overwhelmed you have dark choices to make, do you take an old man off a ventilator to put the young footballer, do you just stop treating people over a certain age?



I’m still amazed that people do not understand this, or are choosing to ignore this.

I don’t think they understand simple statistics or medicine. (I’m not saying anyone here falls into this category). They keep citing current fatality rates, and confirmed infection numbers which are known to be incorect, and then draw conclusions from this false data usually through a preconceived bias. I highly recommend these people take a legit statistics class. Its actually eye opening.


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m still amazed that people do not understand this, or are choosing to ignore this.
> 
> I don’t think they understand simple statistics or medicine. (I’m not saying anyone here falls into this category). They keep citing current fatality rates, and confirmed infection numbers which are known to be incorect, and then draw conclusions from this false data usually through a preconceived bias. I highly recommend these people take a legit statistics class. Its actually eye opening.


The issue is what the statistics are and what they tell you. One of Boris Johnsons advisors spoke at length about this yesterday, it is extremely complex and "Just give me the bottom line" doesn't work in the discussion.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The issue is what the statistics are and what they tell you. One of Boris Johnsons advisors spoke at length about this yesterday, it is extremely complex and "Just give me the bottom line" doesn't work in the discussion.



Agreed. Thats why I think the “Its only killing old people because stats show..., is not valid. Look at the whole damn picture.


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. Thats why I think the “Its only killing old people because stats show..., is not valid. Look at the whole damn picture.


 They were saying that after the first few people died in UK, well 3 isnt a big sample is it? The people without underlying conditions survive longer before dying if they dont recover, they are starting to die now, it is a very grim discussion.


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## Bucksnort101 (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think it is time to round up every person refusing to take precautions, social distance, as well as those that believe its a hoax or not serious and throw them together in the locked stadium. Lesson the burden on the healthcare system and let nature take its course.
> 
> 
> Obviously I am kidding...



Starting to look like this may be a good idea. Drove past several houses in my neighborhood that had 15+ cars parked in the driveway and in front of the house. Figuring there is one driver and possibly one or two more people in each car, that's a whole lot of people enclosed in one house at the same time. Only takes one infected person to infect several others, if not the whole bunch, then spread it to the masses. Dumb!

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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

Bucksnort101 said:


> Starting to look like this may be a good idea. Drove past several houses in my neighborhood that had 15+ cars parked in the driveway and in front of the house. Figuring there is one driver and possibly one or two more people in each car, that's a whole lot of people enclosed in one house at the same time. Only takes one infected person to infect several others, if not the whole bunch, then spread it to the masses. Dumb!


Also, the type of contact you have in someones house is much more likely to spread an infection than going to a sports stadium. You are all touching the same doors repeatedly, same taps, handing things around from the fridge etc.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2020)

This graphic is quite illuminating to show the exponential growth in cases while recoveries are only increasing linearly.








Per the WHO today, it took the world 67 days to reach the milestone of the first 100,000 cases. The 200,000 figure was reached just 11 days later, and 300,000 just 4 days after that. That delta between cases and recoveries is what's scaring healthcare professionals. Italy has been generating 5,000+ new cases per day. That will put a strain on any healthcare system.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2020)

Ok, Shasta County has a case and get this, it's a 70 year old Asian woman who returned to Shasta County after visiting her sick grand-daughter in the Bay Area - *who has the Corona Virus *


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

Selfish morons...

Deniers and Disbelievers: 'If I Get Corona, I Get Corona.'

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## stona (Mar 23, 2020)

It's not just old people who die.

People in all sorts of risk groups die too.

Young previously healthy people die, but in very small numbers.

What young people do is ignore the restrictions in place for everyone's safety, and in so doing put others in higher risk groups in potentially fatal danger, Some could be killing their own grand parents.

Nearly 50 people died in England alone in the last twenty four hours. Here is the statement from NHS England.

"A further 46 people who tested positive for the coronavirus (Covid-19) have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in England to 303.
Patients were aged between 47 and 105 years old and all had underlying health conditions.
Their families have been informed."

I am not denying that some younger people will require hospitalisation or even intensive care, but it is a small percentage of those infected. It's still a small percentage of those tested and confirmed with the virus (a distinction lost on many). I do understand statistics, it was ,once upon a time, part of my job.

I'm not going to contribute anymore to this thred, which, in my opinion, is borderline scaremongering.

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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> This graphic is quite illuminating to show the exponential growth in cases while recoveries are only increasing linearly.
> 
> View attachment 574585
> 
> ...


That's a scary chart.


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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

Just heard on the radio that there is a civil liberties protest in LA. Basically saying the government has no right to impose these results...............incredible.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> That's a scary chart.



Take a look at the linked paper in my post on the previous page regarding "doubling rate".

And for those who think I'm scaremongering...I'm not. This is a serious situation and it requires people to be sensible and follow the bluddy advice they've been given: avoid social contact, wash hands frequently and report if symptoms develop. It's not hard, people. Do the basics, and this thing will pass more quickly and with less impact. Trying to struggle on and live a "normal" life will just prolong the pain for all of us.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 23, 2020)

Mythbuster on safe sneezing


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

stona said:


> It's not just old people who die.
> 
> People in all sorts of risk groups die too.
> 
> ...



Except the data is now saying otherwise. The US is reporting that 38% of intensive care patients are under 55. Marcel said the same about the Netherlands,

It’s not “scaremongering”, its not avoiding the facts.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Just heard on the radio that there is a civil liberties protest in LA. Basically saying the government has no right to impose these results...............incredible.



Put them all in the stadium. Let nature takes its course.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Take a look at the linked paper in my post on the previous page regarding "doubling rate".
> 
> And for those who think I'm scaremongering...I'm not. This is a serious situation and it requires people to be sensible and follow the bluddy advice they've been given: avoid social contact, wash hands frequently and report if symptoms develop. It's not hard, people. Do the basics, and this thing will pass more quickly and with less impact. Trying to struggle on and live a "normal" life will just prolong the pain for all of us.



Ding, ding, ding...

Tell him what he won Johnny!


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Seems to me you are choosing the facts you like.



Please by all means if I've posted something inaccurate or have left out something feel free to tell me. I've learned far more in life being wrong on something than I have ever by being right.

-------------------------------

Following locations/states in the US have issued Stay at Home orders:

San Francisco Bay six county area
California
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Illinois
Indiana
New Jersey
New York
Kansas City
St. Louis
Nashville
Dallas County TX
Kentucky
Indiana
Ohio
Hawaii (starting 4pm today their time)
Louisiana
Delaware
Philadelphia


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## rochie (Mar 23, 2020)

Well we have shut the hotel until 1 july !

all staff are on furlough, with government paying 80% of our salary.

things are about to get very tough for me but fortunately i will be better off than some.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2020)

Man, sorry to hear that.

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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> Well we have shut the hotel until 1 july !
> 
> all staff are on furlough, with government paying 80% of our salary.
> 
> things are about to get very tough for me but fortunately i will be better off than some.



Wait, you're a Brit, right? That 80% cut should mean you have more money in your pocket now that the pubs are closed! 

Seriously, take care, and I'm glad to hear you didn't terminated.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> Well we have shut the hotel until 1 july !
> 
> all staff are on furlough, with government paying 80% of our salary.
> 
> things are about to get very tough for me but fortunately i will be better off than some.



Sorry to hear that. Good luck my friendZ

I am very fortunate that my employment is considered critical infrastructure by the Homeland Security, so my work will not go away.

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## Bucksnort101 (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Please by all means if I've posted something inaccurate or have left out something feel free to tell me. I've learned far more in life being wrong on something than I have ever by being right.
> 
> -------------------------------
> 
> ...



I'm surprised Minnesota has not issued the order yet, but I'm afraid it's coming soon. Probably the best thing to do, but the thought is still deppressing. Governor just put himself under self-quarantine after coming in contact with someone with the virus.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


>


I concur, that's definitely a good emoji (it's actually one of my favorite)

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## rochie (Mar 23, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Wait, you're a Brit, right? That 80% cut should mean you have more money in your pocket now that the pubs are closed!
> 
> Seriously, take care, and I'm glad to hear you didn't terminated.


Thanks, but you got it the wrong way round 
our government is paying me 80%of what i would of earned, still gonna be difficult but better than nothing and i'm very grateful for the financial help and having a job to go back to whenever that may be.

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## mikewint (Mar 23, 2020)

The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the U.S. was 41,511 as of Monday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins putting the U.S. third in the world. At least 499 deaths have been blamed on the virus.

Worldwide, the total number of cases neared 367,000 with more than 16,100 deaths. China remains the highest number of cases with 81,454 and Italy Second with 59,138

At least 12 states have implemented "stay at home" or "shelter in place" orders or advisories. Monday morning, Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ordered non-essential businesses to close and asked the state Health Department to advise residents to stay at home beginning at noon Tuesday and lasting until April 7.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered residents of her state to a stay at home for at least the next three weeks. She also ordered all non-critical businesses to close.

Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb issued a stay at home order that goes into effect just before midnight Tuesday and lasts until April 6.

Similar shelter-in-place or stay home orders were already in place for Louisiana, Ohio, Delaware, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and New York, and many individual cities.

"This week, it's going to get bad," U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said Monday morning on NBC's "Today" show, adding that Americans must stay home.

At least 1.5 billion people — a fifth of the world's population — have been asked or ordered to stay home to try to dampen the spread of the coronavirus, according to The Associated Press.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said he thinks targeting the Florida counties hit hardest by the coronavirus instead of imposting a statewide lockdown is the way to go for now. He said about a third of Florida's 67 counties have no confirmed cases and another third have few.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced in a news conference Monday that 20,875 people across the state have tested positive for coronavirus. At least 157 people have died, he said. The New York City region now accounts for about 5% of confirmed coronavirus cases globally, the New York Times reported. Ellis Island and Liberty Park were closed to visitors

Rep. Ben McAdams, a Utah Democrat and one of two members of the U.S. House of Representatives to test positive for COVID-19, said he has been hospitalized since Friday. He said he had been receiving oxygen for shortness of breath. The second Congressman to test positive, Republican Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart of Florida, said he has self-quarantined in his Washington home. Former presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar said her husband, John Besser, has tested positive for coronavirus. In a post on Medium, the Democrat from Minnesota wrote that Besser checked into a Virginia hospital where he has pneumonia and is on oxygen. Klobuchar said she and her husband have not been in the same place in the past two weeks, and doctors told her she didn't need to take a test.

After crowds of people flocked to California beaches, hiking trails and parks over the weekend, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced on Twitter late Sunday that he was closing sports and recreation at all LA City Parks and shutting down parking at city beaches. Point Reyes National Seashore is now closed to visitors as is Yosemite National Park. He said people should stay home and save lives.

Colorado’s Rocky Mountain National Park and Oregon closed all of its state Parks today

On a positive note MIT scientists announced that the coming warm month may slow the transmission of the virus, Most transmissions occurred between 37.4F to 62.6F. Regions where average temps exceed 64.4F accounted for less than 6% of global cases. Arizona, Florida, and Texas have the slowest transmission rate in the U.S.


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## gumbyk (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> I'm a nerd so pretty big on facts and data and it seams emotions are driving the narative more than data. Reglardess, I feel for the people having to deal with this and regardless of the infection or death rates of this vs the fly, it still is tragic for those having to bury loved ones.


You must be looking at different data to the rest of us then. Forecast figures are, quite frankly horrifying.

This is a NOVEL virus, as in not seen in humans before, as in no-one has immunity to it. It travels easily, and is more lethal than seasonal flu.

Its also NOT about the fatality rate - no country's medical system can cope with the hospitalisation rate, so people will die needlessly of other accidents/illnesses that would have otherwise lived. These don't show up in your Covid fatality rates.

I certainly hope that in 18 months time, those ignorant ones amongst us ARE able to say "much ado about nothing" because then, the measures we're taking now will have worked.

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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Please by all means if I've posted something inaccurate or have left out something feel free to tell me. I've learned far more in life being wrong on something than I have ever by being right.
> 
> -------------------------------
> 
> ...


Influenza not a common cold but the real thing is often the cause of death in the old and infirm because it brings on pneumonia. A young fit person doesn't normally die of influenza, they go home with some meds and feel bad for a week or two. CV19 may be equally survivable for a young fit person but they don't go home for a while they have to be kept alive by a ventilator. Survivability therefore depends on how many intensive care beds there are. In this there comes some counterintuitive stats. London has a higher number of cases, some people who can are leaving London to where they have holiday homes in rural areas, but these nice country areas have less than a quarter of Londons capacity to treat people and a tenth of the resources to get things done.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

mikewint said:


> The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the U.S. was 41,511 as of Monday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins putting the U.S. third in the world. At least 499 deaths have been blamed on the virus.
> 
> Worldwide, the total number of cases neared 367,000 with more than 16,100 deaths. China remains the highest number of cases with 81,454 and Italy Second with 59,138
> 
> ...



please provide sources (links) for your copy and pasting.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 23, 2020)

Karl, it seems the right decision, despite the potential hardships, given the circumstances. Stay safe my friend.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 23, 2020)

Inasmuch as sadistics statistics has never been my forte, I'd petition here for a chart showing 6 tracings:
Influenza infections
Influenza hospitalizations
Influenza deaths
CV infections
CV hospitalizations
CV deaths
for this year since "flu season" started.

At the same time, has anybody obtained confirming/negating information about China's "zero new cases" claims?


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## Airframes (Mar 23, 2020)

Sorry to hear that Karl, but good to know you'll get at least some help, and also be out of one 'risk zone'. Hope you've got plenty of paint and glue though .............. and of course, you can't go the pub anyway, as they've been shut since Friday night.

British Prime Minister is to address the nation at 20..30 hrs tonight - expecting some more stringent measures, and many non-essential stores have now closed, along with hotels, pubs, restaurants, cafes, clubs, gyms, etc etc., and all events cancelled.
This is now the worst "Disaster Movie " ever , and Bruce Willis ain't coming to the rescue - the sooner some selfish idiots realise that, the better !


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Inasmuch as sadistics statistics has never been my forte, I'd petition here for a chart showing 6 tracings:
> Influenza infections
> Influenza hospitalizations
> Influenza deaths
> ...


It was zero new deaths in Wuhan I believe. Maruane Fellani (Belgian soccer player) just tested positive in China Jinan where he plays. With CV the stats are hard to compare, a "case" or infection depends on the level of testing.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> please provide sources (links) for your copy and pasting.


Perhaps some from Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. today
deaths 6,077, cases 63,927, recovered 7,432, tests 275,468
fatality rate 9.5% (this is overestimated, the cases are much higher, actually also the deaths are higher but less)
mortality rate 101 per million
tests rate 4.6 per thousand

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## rochie (Mar 23, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Karl, it seems the right decision, despite the potential hardships, given the circumstances. Stay safe my friend.


you are correct Andy been arguing with my GM for 2 days that we should be closed.


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## mikewint (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> please provide sources (links) for your copy and pasting.



Sources quoted are in the posting but they are as taken from the post:
according to Johns Hopkins
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ordered
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb issued
U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said
according to The Associated Press.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced
Rep. Ben McAdamssaid he has been hospitalized since Friday
Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart of Florida, said he has self-quarantined
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar said In a post on Medium
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced on Twitter
MIT scientists announced

Links are numerous and I did not get each individual one as I trolled various state, federal, and news sites


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## Gnomey (Mar 23, 2020)

UK now on full lockdown as so many people were idiots and ignored the warnings over the weekend...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> UK now on full lockdown as so many people were idiots and ignored the warnings over the weekend...



It’s going to have to happen here in the US as well.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Sources quoted are in the posting but they are as taken from the post:
> according to Johns Hopkins
> Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ordered
> Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered
> ...



Please provide the links. It is not hard to copy and paste.


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## gumbyk (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It’s going to have to happen here in the US as well.


That'll turn ugly really fast.

Not sure there's an alternative though.


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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Sorry MiTasol, it is true that English is no my mother language, actually i don't speak English just understand some writen English, but i don't find where they tell to use saline as sanitizers, as i understand they tell the soap and water are better of alcohol based sanitizers versus virus in mucus





Marcel said:


> Here for instance
> *Our clinical study showed that EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline. *



_EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline _means _EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was *much less effective than* IAV in saline_._._ Also the very next sentence says _IAV in mucus remained active despite 120 s of AHR _(in sanitizer);_* however, IAV in saline was completely inactivated within 30 s* meaning *IAV in saline was killed within 30 s*_

This is what happens when you get authors who like to show their wide vocabulary instead of writing in plain simple English that translates widely like them saying _We aimed to elucidate the situations _instead of _We aimed to clarify the issues or We aimed to make the differences in methods clear._


This is not just a problem in medical document writing. I have seen _Quality Manuals _that are full of phrases like _proactive synergy_. When you walk out onto the floor of those organisations you find without fail that none of the general staff have ever seen the manual and when you ask someone like a cleaner what that means he/she looks at you blankly. A_ Quality Manual_ must be written in language that the lowest educated person in the company can fully understand and every staff member must be trained on it for it to be effective and it should not require hours of training.


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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> Thanks, but you got it the wrong way round
> our government is paying me 80%of what i would of earned, still gonna be difficult but better than nothing and i'm very grateful for the financial help and having a job to go back to whenever that may be.


No sir, 
Wasn't wrong way round. with the pubs closed, you Brits will have a net gain of 5-10% in your pockets!

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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2020)

mikewint said:


> The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the U.S. was 41,511 as of Monday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins putting the U.S. third in the world. At least 499 deaths have been blamed on the virus.


1.202%


> Worldwide, the total number of cases neared 367,000 with more than 16,100 deaths.


4.387%


> New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced in a news conference Monday that 20,875 people across the state have tested positive for coronavirus. At least 157 people have died, he said.


0.752%


> On a positive note MIT scientists announced that the coming warm month may slow the transmission of the virus, Most transmissions occurred between 37.4F to 62.6F. Regions where average temps exceed 64.4F accounted for less than 6% of global cases. Arizona, Florida, and Texas have the slowest transmission rate in the U.S.


Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> 1.202%
> 4.387%
> 0.752%
> Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...



Zipper, do you realize the death rates are not accurate, and really do not show the problem that is coming? Stop harping on them.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> _EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was extremely reduced compared to IAV in saline _means _EBD effectiveness against IAV in mucus was *much less effective than* IAV in saline_._._ Also the very next sentence says _IAV in mucus remained active despite 120 s of AHR _(in sanitizer);_* however, IAV in saline was completely inactivated within 30 s* meaning *IAV in saline was killed within 30 s*_
> 
> This is what happens when you get authors who like to show their wide vocabulary instead of writing in plain simple English that translates widely like them saying _We aimed to elucidate the situations _instead of _We aimed to clarify the issues or We aimed to make the differences in methods clear._
> 
> ...



but the saline is not the sanitizers, is EBD the sanitizer, if they used the EBD for attack the virus in mucus also after 120 sec this is active but if the virus is in saline the EBD is effective in 30 seconds

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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Zipper, do you realize the death rates are not accurate, and really do not shoe the problem that is coming? Stop harping on them.


Zippers ability to divide one number by another without any reason or aim is always a joy to behold.


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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. Thats why I think the “Its only killing old people because stats show..., is not valid. Look at the whole damn picture.



And especially that part of the picture for later in the spread of this disease. 

Yes, initially it is only killing oldies because their are more of them with serious underlying diseases but then it starts killing off the younger ones as well. There was a post a couple of days ago that said that in Italy the deaths are now equal for those over and under the age of 50. No source was provided but, if correct, that is the message the young need to be lead to understand. China and Iran are trumpeting about people aged over 100 that have survived.

I suspect we need to start trumpeting those under 30 that have died


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And especially that part of the picture for later in the spread of this disease.
> 
> Yes, initially it is only killing oldies because their are more of them with serious underlying diseases but then it starts killing off the younger ones as well. There was a post a couple of days ago that said that in Italy the deaths are now equal for those over and under the age of 50.



In Italy the deaths under 50 are 1%, that over 99%
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_23marzo ENG.pdf


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## Marcel (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> but the saline is not the sanitizers, is EBD the sanitizer, if they used the EBD for attack the virus in mucus also after 120 sec this is active but if the virus is in saline the EBD is effective in 30 seconds


 that’s about right.


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## rochie (Mar 23, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> No sir,
> Wasn't wrong way round. with the pubs closed, you Brits will have a net gain of 5-10% in your pockets!


probably true


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> 1.202%
> 4.387%
> 0.752%
> Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...


Zipper divide the figures for New York by the population of NY, divide the figures for US by the population of US and the world figures by the world population. A virus isn't a bullet, read up on the science, it is all about concentrations and percentages and vulnerabilities.

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## MiTasol (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> In Italy the deaths under 50 are 1%, that over 99%
> https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_23marzo ENG.pdf



Thank you for the correct information.


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## jetcal1 (Mar 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> probably true


Even as a sailor, I couldn't keep up with my English hosts the several times I went drinking with them.
And, frankly? A poolside shandy at 9 AM was a bit too much for me. (I keep track on that last one, my host knocked back 25 pints (Imperial, of course.) that was the last time I went crawling with an Englishman.

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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> 1.202%
> 4.387%
> 0.752%
> Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...


Further to my other post, a virus isn't like a bullet it is like flak. The further away you are from the source the better, it may be theoretically possible to down a B-17 with a rifle but highly unlikely. To make a B-17 sick or kill it you need hundreds of rifle bullets, not the same in a Zeke and certainly not a Dr1 Triplane. The stronger you are and the more protection you have coupled with the distance from danger the better your chances are. The virus can survive at 98.6 F but not for as long, so the concentration of the virus is less and so it is less dangerous at that temperature humidity is also a factor.


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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> 1.202%
> 4.387%
> 0.752%
> Why would that be? The virus can survive at 98.6F...


Because the casing( can't think of the proper term right now) that encapsulates the virus degrades much quicker in higher temperatures.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 23, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> In Italy the deaths under 50 are 1%, that over 99%
> https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_23marzo ENG.pdf



Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?


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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2020)

To 
P
 pbehn
and 
M
 michael rauls


So, it can't survive high temperatures outside the confines of the human body? Inside the human body, it can last enough to latch onto a host and keep the cycle going?


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## ThomasP (Mar 23, 2020)

Hey TheMadPenguin,

See Vincenzo's posts#533 & 583.


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> To
> P
> pbehn
> and
> ...


I am not an expert, why don't you read some stuff instead of firing a simple question that will lead to more questions. I have been in a dry air temperature of 110C (not a misprint 110C) measuring a cracking furnace tube temperature with a thermographic camera in Saudi Arabia. That is fatal to humans for any sort of extended period. We worked in a group of 3 for 10 minutes in an hour, only one was required but you needed the other two for safety, if anyone fell down the two standing had to drag the other guy out.


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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> To
> P
> pbehn
> and
> ...


It can't remain viable as long in higher temperatures. It's a progressive scale.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 23, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?


the age are for teens, from 30 to 79 we have 50,4% of deaths, so around 78 years and 11 months could be the median, the average in a bit older docs was 78.5 years
take in the count that the average age in Italy is over 45 years

a statistical note average and median are not the same thing


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## pbehn (Mar 23, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Can you say what age is the 50%/50% mid-point (average age of victim at death)?


Just on UK TV UK critical care admissions for CV19. 71% male average age 62.6 ...…….5% are under 30, 10% are 40-49 20% are 50-59, 27% are 60-69 28% are 70-79 and 6% are 80+

75% of patients needed a ventilator within 24 hours of admission 50% of those who have recovered needed a ventillator for 9 days or more, 12% needed kidney dialysis.


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## ThomasP (Mar 23, 2020)

Hey Zipper730,

With the normal flu type virus warm weather will reduce the rate of transmission. This is primarily due to a beneficial effect on the mucus linings of the human body. The higher temperatures do not directly cause the reduction in transmission from human to human. However, when the weather is warmer, there is usually a higher level of UV light, resulting in the destruction of the virus when sitting on directly and indirectly exposed surfaces.

In addition, some viruses are more vulnerable to different levels of humidity, due to the humidity's effect on the protective coatings that exist on many viruses. The max possible level of ambient humidity varies depending on the air temperature, altitude, and available water source.

However, according to recent postings by the WHO, and other agencies:

From my post#720 with bold emphasis added:

"Please note that *warm weather does not appear to reduce the transmission of COVID-19*. Other than exposure to elevated levels of UV light, there is no evidence, *to date*, of any warm climate reducing effect.*"

"*A general rule is that temperatures of 60°C/140°F for 60 minutes or more are required to destroy most viruses. Except for direct exposure to sunlight on some surfaces (such as sand in the desert for one example) these temperatures do not generally occur under humans living conditions."

TIme will tell us more, as the virus spreads in countries that are near the equator (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, southern India, etc) or in the southern hemisphere such as Australia - including many of the African and South American nations which cover both latitudes.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2020)

We had the first two deaths here today. A man in his 70’s died in St. Charles county (where I live) as well as a women in her 30’s died in St. Louis city.


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## gumbyk (Mar 23, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> TIme will tell us more, as the virus spreads in countries that are near the equator (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, southern India, etc) or in the southern hemisphere such as Australia - including many of the African and South American nations which cover both latitudes.



We're just coming into winter so its getting colder down here, and flu season is about to start, so they're both ramping up together... Could be ugly if both peak together.


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## michael rauls (Mar 23, 2020)

After more research...... chloroquine is in fact a synthetic darivitive of quinine with the same mechanism of action. In a trial in South Korea 8 of 12 people treated with chloroquine were rid of the Covid19 virus after 6 days. In the placebo control group 2 out of 12 were rid of it in 6 days.
In a previous post I suggested that quinine MAY help with Covid19. Upon further research I think it's fairly safe to say, at least if this study is any indication( and yes the test group is small but the difference in recovery times is dramatic) that chloroquine/ quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics. 
In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 23, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
> As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
> So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics.
> In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.



Have you found any note how many mg/dose and how many dose/day?
(that's probably a LOT of tonic for the dosage)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> After more research...... chloroquine is in fact a synthetic darivitive of quinine with the same mechanism of action. In a trial in South Korea 8 of 12 people treated with chloroquine were rid of the Covid19 virus after 6 days. In the placebo control group 2 out of 12 were rid of it in 6 days.
> In a previous post I suggested that quinine MAY help with Covid19. Upon further research I think it's fairly safe to say, at least if this study is any indication( and yes the test group is small but the difference in recovery times is dramatic) that chloroquine/ quinine IS helpful( very) with Covid19.
> As I mentioned in my previous post quinine is the active ingredient in tonic water.
> So let's get to tipping back a few gin and tonics.
> In all seriousness probably better to leave the gin part out under these circumstances........unfortunately.



Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common.

In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common. In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.



How bad were these side effect in the first 6-10 days? (serious question here)
I can see these effect affecting a trooper's work, especially if you don't have the malaria, but somebody in isolation who does have COVID-19 might see things a bit different.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Have you found any note how many mg/dose and how many dose/day?
> (that's probably a LOT of tonic for the dosage)


If I remember right, I'll double check and report back. The dosage of quinine for malaria was typically 300mg. A typical 4oz tonic water will give you about 10 mg.
The mechanism of action is a little lengthy to discribe here but my impression was that it was not subject to a efective dose band in relation to its viral replication inhibitive properties. That is many drugs have an effective dose below which they are ineffective and above which they are toxic. Other drugs have a best dose above which the potential for side effects outweighs possible benefits but even a lower dose is still beneficial, although less so. Quinine/chloroquine from what I could gather indicated from it's mechanism of action falls into the later category in relation the viral replication inhibition properties but not it's anti malarial properties.
That's a long way of saying even 30, 40, or 50 miligrams should be helpful to some degree.


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## Zippythehog (Mar 24, 2020)

If not already stated, the chief objective of the present quarantine is to slow the spread. There isn’t enough equipment to treat many people. About 1/3 of the infected are asymptomatic but still contagious. 

We’ve been idled in Ohio for a week. I’m getting caught up on house projects and starting back at models soon. 

Stay healthy all.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common.
> 
> In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.


True but a few tonic waters a day is very unlikely result in those side effects. Ive never heard of it and lots of people drink it.
And like I said it appears that even a small dose should be helpful to inhibit viral replication.
Ive been tipping back 4 or 5 a day since last week( so 40 or 50mg) and have had none of the side affects at all.


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## at6 (Mar 24, 2020)

Two days ago Fresno County had 6 cases, today it's 13 and rising. So far no one has died but that could change at any time as our 5 county region reported 35 cases of the virus with one recovery in a neighboring county. As for the age groups, the young are an ever increasing number in the ICUs. They thought that they were invincible as do many of them.

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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

Let me be clear. I certainly wouldn't advocate taking a madicinal dose of quinine without seeing a doctor. However, I don't think a couple tonic waters a day, maybe just until this thing is over( unless you really like it) is likely to have any negative affects and by all indications appears that it will most certainly be beneficial if one is unfortunate enough to be exposed to this.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 24, 2020)

Seeing as how we don't need a federal license or prescription for Gin & Tonic (or just the tonic) I'll reckon it falls in the category "it couldn't hurt, try it as a prophylactic".

What juice does a good (non-alcoholic) job of smothering the taste of the tonic?


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## MiTasol (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Chloroquine can have very serious and common side affects, including depression and suicidal thoughts. Its actually pretty common.
> 
> In Iraq we were all given chloroquine to prevent malaria. Many complained of nasty effects. I actually stopped taking it. I decided I would take my chances with malaria (pretty shitty decision to make) because I just felt terrible.



In PNG most FIFO and long term expats do not take any anti-malarials as the modern medical practice in this country says that the side effects of chloroquine use are far far worse than getting the malaria and taking modern medication for that. Mind you PNG only has two types of malaria, vivax and cerebal so this may not be a good program in many other countries with other variants. Modern malarial medicines, especially the French one whose name I cannot recall right now, are excellent if taken in accordance with the instructions. Unfortunately Artemeter and Fansidar which were really good 10-15 years ago are now next to useless because the nationals stop taking the medicine (and sell the remaining script to others) as soon as they feel "cured". This naturally resulted in Artemeter and Fansidar resistant malaria.

One exploration company wanted all of our staff on their sites to take doxicyclin daily as a prophalactic. A letter from the International Medical Research institute in Chicago with a covering letter from our company lawyer stopped that dead in its tracks. Discovering that someone is allergic to Doxi after their first dose at an exploration site in the wet season with a good chance of being weathered in for a week was never in their original calculations.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> What juice does a good (non-alcoholic) job of smothering the taste of the tonic?


Citrus juices go well with Tonic water (without alcohol) like Orange juice with a small bit of Lemon juice.

You'll have to adjust for taste.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2020)

at6 said:


> Two days ago Fresno County had 6 cases, today it's 13 and rising. So far no one has died but that could change at any time as our 5 county region reported 35 cases of the virus with one recovery in a neighboring county. As for the age groups, the young are an ever increasing number in the ICUs. They thought that they were invincible as do many of them.



That's inline with the "doubling rate" assessment in the MITRE paper a few pages back which indicated the US had the worst doubling rate of all assessed countries (about 1.8 days - very short, leading to exponential growth). That means if your county has 13 cases today (Tues), by Thurs it'll be 26, by Saturday 52 and on Monday 104...give it another week or so, if no direct action is taken, your county may well be struggling with thousands of new cases every day.


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## MiTasol (Mar 24, 2020)

An Irish appreciation of the situation

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> How bad were these side effect in the first 6-10 days? (serious question here)
> I can see these effect affecting a trooper's work, especially if you don't have the malaria, but somebody in isolation who does have COVID-19 might see things a bit different.



do you meam someone in isolation that does not have a strong support network to recognize that something is mentally wrong with the person?

They were pretty strong effects. That does not mean everyone will get them, but it was enough that many in my unit started throwing the pills away.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

*ALSO THIS FORUM IS NOT A PLACE FOR NON-MEDICAL PERSONNEL AND NON-PROFESSIONAL EXPERTS TO GIVE ADVISE ON TAKING MEDICINES OR OTHER TREATMENTS APPROVED OR OTHERWISE.*

*LEAVE THAT TO THE DOCTORS PLEASE.*

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> True but a few tonic waters a day is very unlikely result in those side effects. Ive never heard of it and lots of people drink it.
> And like I said it appears that even a small dose should be helpful to inhibit viral replication.
> Ive been tipping back 4 or 5 a day since last week( so 40 or 50mg) and have had none of the side affects at all.



It is quite common with chloroquine and other malaria drugs, and is well documented. Leave the medical advice to the Doctors, before someone reads it, and gets themselves hurt or worse by taking something they shouldn’t. Just like this guy and his wife in Arizona.

A man died after ingesting a substance he thought would protect him from coronavirus

*Again, leave the medical advice to the Doctors and professionals.*

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Let me be clear. I certainly wouldn't advocate taking a madicinal dose of quinine without seeing a doctor. However, I don't think a couple tonic waters a day, maybe just until this thing is over( unless you really like it) is likely to have any negative affects and by all indications appears that it will most certainly be beneficial if one is unfortunate enough to be exposed to this.



I am only referring to any specific advice about medications.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

Ok...........that wasn't exactly the response I was expecting for researching a couple common dietary items that might help people here. 3 vitamins and a type of soda pop........sometimes food is the best medicine as they say.......I always feel compelled to help friends in time of need but fair enough.......I won't mention it again.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

If I could just give a corollary example. I don't think suggesting that blue cheese might be helpful with certain digestive conditions, which it is, would somehow constitute medical advice because it contains a very small amount of penecilim mold. I certainly didn't think I was giving medical advice nor do I see how it could be interpreted that way. Lot of guys here mentioned vitamins and at least one an actual medication. But fair enough this isn't my parade I just march in it , so no more dietary thoughts from me


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Ok...........that wasn't exactly the response I was expecting for researching a couple common dietary items that might help people here. 3 vitamins and a type of soda pop........sometimes food is the best medicine as they say.......I always feel compelled to help friends in time of need but fair enough.......I won't mention it again.



I’m referring to the chloroquine references, I can care less about you or anyone talking about food or water.

Also I was making a general statement to everyone regarding medicine advice. Last I checked only one of us here is a Dr.

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## mikewint (Mar 24, 2020)

"A man has died and his wife is under critical care after the couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks," one of the anti-malaria drugs that President Trump has mentioned in recent days, according to Banner Health, the hospital system that treated both patients.

*Why it matters: *People who attempt to self-medicate risk serious side effects or death, and it's why any messaging about chloroquine and the related hydroxychloroquine should emphasize that these drugs have not been approved to prevent or treat the new coronavirus.

*Worth noting:* The malaria drug comes in tablet form, but the type the couple used was a toxic substance — not medication.


The man's wife told NBC News: "I had it in the house because I used to have koi fish."
_Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect the fact that the form of chloroquine the couple ingested was used in aquariums —_ _and it was not a medication._

Nigeria is reporting two poisonings from the drug chloroquine, a drug that's been touted as a potential but as-yet unproven treatment for coronavirus,Bloomberg reports.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2020)

Just throwing out another chart to illustrate why social distancing is so important:

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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

mikewint said:


> "A man has died and his wife is under critical care after the couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks," one of the anti-malaria drugs that President Trump has mentioned in recent days, according to Banner Health, the hospital system that treated both patients.
> 
> *Why it matters: *People who attempt to self-medicate risk serious side effects or death, and it's why any messaging about chloroquine and the related hydroxychloroquine should emphasize that these drugs have not been approved to prevent or treat the new coronavirus.
> 
> ...


Ok, thanks Mike but just to be clear what I said was that a couple tonic waters and a good multi vitamin with zinc etc. might be helpful. Feel like people are taking what I said and really going off the deep end with it.


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## pbehn (Mar 24, 2020)

You cant self medicate, "hydroxychloroquine" just sounds like "chloroquine". Even using industrial oxygen instead of medical oxygen can kill. Warfarin is/was used as a rat poison and a drug to treat thrombosis that doesn't mean you take a bit of rat poison when your prescription runs out.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Ok, thanks Mike but just to be clear what I said was that a couple tonic waters and a good multi vitamin with zinc etc. might be helpful. Feel like people are taking what I said and really going off the deep end with it.



I’m not going off any deep end. In your first post you referenced small sample sizes and specific medications to combat a virus that have not been verified. Despite the FDA, CDC, and Doctors saying further tests have to be done to determine its effectiveness and safety when treating the coronavirus, so it is not recommended. It is a drug with dangerous side affects. Chloroquine is not a vitamin you should tip back 3 or 4 a day to ward off viral infection. Despite these warnings, our wonderful leader went out and ran his mouth telling people he endorsed it, and now several people are dead or in critical condition in the USA and Nigeria.

The same goes with Zinc which you referenced as well. Zinc in too high of a dosage is toxic.

My point is tell people all you want to drink water, eat vegetables and fruits, but leave the actual medicinal advice to the experts, i.e. the doctors. Something that neither you or I are.

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## at6 (Mar 24, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> That's inline with the "doubling rate" assessment in the MITRE paper a few pages back which indicated the US had the worst doubling rate of all assessed countries (about 1.8 days - very short, leading to exponential growth). That means if your county has 13 cases today (Tues), by Thurs it'll be 26, by Saturday 52 and on Monday 104...give it another week or so, if no direct action is taken, your county may well be struggling with thousands of new cases every day.


We're pretty much on lock down with social distancing. We can still go to the park or for walks but no close proximity to anyone. There goes a lot of sex lives.


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## pbehn (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The same goes with Zinc which you referenced as well. Zinc in too high of a dosage is toxic.


Zinc is a metal used in rust prevention, we need to galvanize ourselves into being precise with the names of chemical compounds.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Zinc is a metal used in rust prevention, we need to galvanize ourselves into being precise with the names of chemical compounds.



Yes, and is also used a vitamin supplement.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 24, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. today
cases 69,176, deaths 6,820, recovered 8,326, tests 296,964
fatality rate 9.9% 
mortality rate 113 per million
test rate 4.9 per thousand

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## pbehn (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yes, and is also used a vitamin supplement.


Zinc? Or Zinc acetate, zinc gluconate? Licking a sheet of galvanized steel wont do you any good at all ever.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Zinc? Or Zinc acetate, zinc gluconate? Licking a sheet of galvanized steel wont do you any good at all ever.



This Zinc:

Zinc


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

United States could become coronavirus epicenter: WHO


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not going off any deep end. In your first post you referenced small sample sizes and specific medications to combat a virus that have not been verified. Despite the FDA, CDC, and Doctors saying further tests have to be done to determine its effectiveness and safety when treating the coronavirus, so it is not recommended. It is a drug with dangerous side affects. Chloroquine is not a vitamin you should tip back 3 or 4 a day to ward off viral infection. Despite these warnings, our wonderful leader went out and ran his mouth telling people he endorsed it, and now several people are dead or in critical condition in the USA and Nigeria.
> 
> The same goes with Zinc which you referenced as well. Zinc in too high of a dosage is toxic.
> 
> My point is tell people all you want to drink water, eat vegetables and fruits, but leave the actual medicinal advice to the experts, i.e. the doctors. Something that neither you or I are.


Ok, no problem. Just thought I might be able to help friends from un necessary suffering or perhaps worse in light of the current situation. Even though nutrition and medicine are one of my life long interests and areas of study I wont refrence them again. It will be difficult when someone here is sick and I know something that will almost certainly help but I will hold my tounge so to speak.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Ok, no problem. Just thought I might be able to help friends from un necessary suffering or perhaps worse in light of the current situation. Even though nutrition and medicine are one of my life long interests and areas of study I wont refrence them again. It will be difficult when someone here is sick and I know something that will almost certainly help but I will hold my tounge so to speak.



So despite Doctors saying that it is uncertain and further testing is required, you know you that it will certainly help?



 Gnomey
, you are an actual doctor, who went to years of medical school, and works as a medical professional, do you think it is wise to tell people to pop a few pills to ward off a virus that have not been properly tested and confirmed to work?


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Do you think it is wise to tell people to pop a few pills to ward off a virus that have not been properly tested and confirmed to work?



That would depend on whether said pills were available to me, and how sick I am. BUT (more to your point) I wouldn't suggest to others to take said pills, but study the matter the best you can and decide for yourself what to do.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So despite Doctors saying that it is uncertain and further testing is required, you know you that it will certainly help?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was referencing other situations like a ketogenic diet for diabetes for example.
Not saying im any medical genius or any smarter than anyone else. Its just ive read alot of literature/ studies that others may not have due to having several chronic conditions that I have been able to cure by the way, Diabetes, high blood pressure and GIRD. It took over a decade of study and experamentation with diet etc but I no longer suffer from those ailments. I just cant stand to see others suffer if I have been through the same thing and know what will help or even if its not something ive been through and I think I know something that might help. What kind of person would I be if I kept such information to myself. 
I will however keep any such knowledge to myself in the future.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> That would depend on whether said pills were available to me, and how sick I am. BUT (more to your point) I wouldn't suggest to others to take said pills, but study the matter the best you can and decide for yourself what to do.



Then you use other forums to pass on untrained medical advice.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I was referencing other situations like a ketogenic diet for diabetes for example.
> Not saying im any medical genius or any smarter than anyone else. Its just ive read alot of literature/ studies that others may not have due to having several chronic conditions that I have been able to cure by the way, Diabetes, high blood pressure and GIRD. It took over a decade of study and experamentation with diet etc but I no longer suffer from those ailments. I just cant stand to see others suffer if I have been through the same thing and know what will help or even if its not something ive been through and I think I know something that might help. What kind of person would I be if I kept such information to myself.
> I will however keep any such knowledge to myself in the future.



One final last time...

You have no clue what will get rid of coronavirus. Neither do I. Neither doanyone else. You are not a doctor, and we will not have people getting possible ill advice on how to prevent or treat a novel virus. That is the job of a person’s doctor.

I have consulted with the other staff of this forum and they agree.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> That would depend on whether said pills were available to me, and how sick I am. BUT (more to your point) I wouldn't suggest to others to take said pills, but study the matter the best you can and decide for yourself what to do.


I never said anybody SHOULD take anything. And I never mentioned pills unless one considers a LOW DOSE zinc supplement a pill. I summarised and aggregated research, readily available to anyone if they care to look.......Thought it might help.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> One final last time...
> 
> You have no clue what will get rid of coronavirus. Neither do I. Neither doanyone else. You are not a doctor, and we will not have people getting possible ill advice on how to prevent or treat a novel virus. That is the job of a person’s doctor.
> 
> I have consulted with the other staff of this forum and they agree.


Ok, No problem. You asked me a question in your post so I answered you honestly. I said I would not and have not suggested anything additional helpful in regards to diet etc.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

Pence again touts chloroquine as coronavirus treatment after it's linked to deaths


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

Here is my final and last thought on this. If medical experts perform tests on a drug (chloroquine for instance) and they determine that at a specific dosage for a specific time will stop coronavirus, then by all means do so on your doctors orders. I would.

As for zinc the recommended daily dosage by medical experts is between 8 and 11 mg, not 50 mg or any other number (40 mg is the upper limit for adults, it’s 4 mg for infants). It interferes with certain antibiotics. Taken at high doses or for an extended period of time can cause copper deficiency.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 24, 2020)

Post 927 is very worrisome.

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## Gnomey (Mar 24, 2020)

Just to put this to bed.

*THERE IS NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENT FOR COVID-19 OTHER THAN SUPPORTIVE CARE. THIS IS WHY THE ISOLATION AND LOCKDOWNS ARE HAPPENING. *

There have been small scale trials with a variety of agents. These include chloroquine, antivirals, anti-HIV meds and others. All have been less than 50 people with generally poor results and no significant improvement in mortality, length of stay or duration of intubation. We are looking at everything that might help and doing everything to find more effective treatments. There’s nothing yet though. 

Everyone reacts differently to the virus those that are most unwell suffer due to cytokine storm and the onset of adult respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary oedema and multi-organ failure. These are the ITU cases with poor prognosis. Initial treatment is oxygen as needed, antibiotics (to cover concurrent and later developing bacterial pneumonia), fluids as needed and help them though. Similar to flu management expert we have antivirals that help with flu.

Symptoms and manner of spread are similar to flu however COVID-19 is 3 times more infectious as 3-10 times more deadly.

*To put it in context. *

*1 person with flu infects on average 1.3-1.5 others. After 10 cycles of spread that’s 14 people from 1 index case. Now for COVID-19 this is as follows:*

*1 person infects roughly 3 people and those 3 infect and so for 10 cycles that 1 index case would spread to 59,000 people. *

*Just think about that for a minute. *

No health system can cope with the numbers if unconfined spread occurs there are just too many that are too unwell and not enough ventilators available. It would be catastrophic. That is why we are trying to flatten the curve so we can cope with the numbers. Thousands (probably hundreds of thousands all told) will die but it would be millions without isolation procedures.

*Stay inside, keep your distance and don’t listen to hacks on the internet. If you have symptoms isolate, call your GP and go from there. Leave it with the professionals not the toilet paper hoarders. *


M
 michael rauls

This ends here. I will not tolerate the posting of unsubstantiated (and unreferenced) medication advice that may influence others and cause undue harm to others even if unwittingly. Anymore and you can spend some time at the beach thinking it all over.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

Thank you Dr. Gnomey.


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## gumbyk (Mar 24, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> M
> michael rauls
> 
> This ends here. I will not tolerate the posting of unsubstantiated (and unreferenced) medication advice that may influence others and cause undue harm to others even if unwittingly. Anymore and you can spend some time at the beach thinking it all over.


And this is why...


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## pbehn (Mar 24, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> *To put it in context. *
> 
> *1 person with flu infects on average 1.3-1.5 others. After 10 cycles of spread that’s 14 people from 1 index case. Now for COVID-19 this is as follows:*
> 
> ...


I presume this is why I have heard several people (the ones stood next to Boris Johnson at briefings) talking about quote "reducing social contact by 75%," to bring the spread down to "flu" levels. Not in terms of the disease itself but the maths/statistics of the spread.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2020)

Yep...as illustrated at Post #917.


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## michael rauls (Mar 24, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Just to put this to bed.
> 
> *THERE IS NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENT FOR COVID-19 OTHER THAN SUPPORTIVE CARE. THIS IS WHY THE ISOLATION AND LOCKDOWNS ARE HAPPENING. *
> 
> ...


Well I sincerely apologize if I broke any forum rules of which I was not aware. I would not have persued it if one of the other moderators had not liked my post when I first mentioned it but instead said that discussion of supplements or medicinal properties of food and drink are against forum rules. I always respect the rules" politics, religion, etc. 
That's all that was needed.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 24, 2020)

Sigh...


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## nuuumannn (Mar 24, 2020)

Dammit! Y'all are right. it is bad. I'm over it already and we haven't even begun the lockdown in New Zealand yet - tonight at midnight. I won't be able to see my daughter, who lives in another town an hour and a half away (Hi Aaron) or my girlfriend, who lives a five minute drive away, ffs! I feel like having a coughing fit...


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## at6 (Mar 24, 2020)

I'm just going to take my vitamins and stay away from people. The best way is to dodge all possibilities of catching it. Still not 100 percent safe, but better than nothing. Central Cal now has over 42 cases of the virus.

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## N4521U (Mar 25, 2020)

Being retired,
abandoned every day, my wife still works,
at my bench most every day,
eating occasionaly, 
nothing has changed!
Should I feel cheated?


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## at6 (Mar 25, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Being retired,
> abandoned every day, my wife still works,
> at my bench most every day,
> eating occasionaly,
> ...


Hell no !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ThomasP (Mar 25, 2020)

Hey guys,

As an addition to my post#786 which was in answer to TheMadPenguin's post#753, re: "Does anybody know what equipment is "usually all you need" besides a breathing machine?"

A large increase in hospital usage of asthma related drugs to treat cases of COVID-19, most notably in the group known generally as bronchodilators, is creating a shortage of ready-use inhalers in the general market. Note that the drugs used in the inhalers are not in short supply, just the inhaler devices. (An example of the inhalers I am referring to are the small canisters with the bent elbow tube on the end that the asthma sufferer inhales through.)

The shortage of ready-use inhalers, particularly of the Albuterol type, is not critical yet. However, the healthcare system and the manufacturers are developing a "fair share" allocation process based on current need and projected demand.

The manufacturers of the devices are currently ramping up production.


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## wuzak (Mar 25, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I was referencing other situations like a ketogenic diet for diabetes for example.
> Not saying im any medical genius or any smarter than anyone else. Its just ive read alot of literature/ studies that others may not have due to having several chronic conditions that I have been able to cure by the way, Diabetes, high blood pressure and GIRD.



These conditions can be solved or alleviated by good diet and weight loss (not including GRID, which I am not sure is a chronic condition).

The keto diet is a low carb/low energy diet that helps with weight loss.

There are two types of diabetes. The one you are speaking of can be controlled solely by diet in many people. Others may need drugs and a few will require insulin.

Now the other type of diabetes will not be cured by any diet, keto or otherwise. Diet can help in managing the condition, and its many side effects that come with poor control, and reduce the amount of insulin required, but as it stands this type of diabetes is for life.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Being retired,
> abandoned every day, my wife still works,
> at my bench most every day,
> eating occasionaly,
> ...



You don't need to feel cheated. I freely admit to being jealous, though!


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## stona (Mar 25, 2020)

I couldn't resist this:

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

I have resisted the temptation to link to another study showing where Italian hospitals rank in terms of _bacterial _pneumonia infections in the Europe. Lets just say not very well. It is entirely possible that not all infected patients are _dying _of COVID-19 in Italy (or elsewhere for that matter, it kills 30,000 in a normal year in the UK). Hospital is the best place to contract it, particularly if you already have other problems, like COVID-19.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 25, 2020)

stona said:


> I couldn't resist this:
> 
> Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
> 
> I have resisted the temptation to link to another study showing where Italian hospitals rank in terms of _bacterial _pneumonia infections in the Europe. Lets just say not very well. It is entirely possible that not all infected patients are _dying _of COVID-19 in Italy (or elsewhere for that matter, it kills 30,000 in a normal year in the UK). Hospital is the best place to contract it, particularly if you already have other problems, like COVID-19.



on the Oxford study, the problem are the assumption

link that study on the italian hospitals rank


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## mikewint (Mar 25, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Should I feel cheated?


We're rowing the same boat. Personally I'm glad I don't feel dead!

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## Zipper730 (Mar 25, 2020)

mikewint said:


> We're rowing the same boat. Personally I'm glad I don't feel dead!


Uh, dead people don't feel anything -- that said, I think I know what you mean...


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## mikewint (Mar 25, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Uh, dead people don't feel anything


While that is not what organized religion preaches it is none-the-less my most fervent prayer. All I know for certain sure is that they certainly don't complain


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## Zipper730 (Mar 25, 2020)

mikewint said:


> While that is not what organized religion preaches it is none-the-less my most fervent prayer.


Worried about being hell-bound, eh?


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## Vincenzo (Mar 25, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. today
cases 74,386, deaths 7,503, recovered 9,362, tests 324,445
fatality rate 10%
mortality rate 124 per million
tests rate 5.4 per thousand inhabitant


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## Gnomey (Mar 25, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> Well I sincerely apologize if I broke any forum rules of which I was not aware. I would not have persued it if one of the other moderators had not liked my post when I first mentioned it but instead said that discussion of supplements or medicinal properties of food and drink are against forum rules. I always respect the rules" politics, religion, etc.
> That's all that was needed.


All I’m asking is that false treatment information is not spread we don’t need people self medicating on possible treatments that have been popularised that cause harm. By all means discuss them but don’t preach them as effective when the data is not there.

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## gumbyk (Mar 25, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Dammit! Y'all are right. it is bad. I'm over it already and we haven't even begun the lockdown in New Zealand yet - tonight at midnight. I won't be able to see my daughter, who lives in another town an hour and a half away (Hi Aaron) or my girlfriend, who lives a five minute drive away, ffs! I feel like having a coughing fit...



Hey, just BAU for me, except that none of my customers are doing anything so no work for me... Time to do some business development I guess.
You missed the opportunity to quarantine with your GF. I've heard of quite a few people doing this, just so they're not holed up by themselves, THAT is what would drive me crazy.

We've started making sure that we video chat with at least one family member each day.

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## mikewint (Mar 25, 2020)

A Pyrrhic Victory but a positive during this terrible disease pandemic:
Satellite images show nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from 10 March to 22 March, 2020 compared to the same period last year.
NO2, represented by the colour density on the maps, is shown to be in remarkably lower concentrations this month over New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Detroit and Houston. Millions of Americans have been ordered to stay home in the hope of slowing the Covid-19 outbreak. 
The analyses of NO2 emissions were provided to _The Independent_ by Descartes Labs, a geospatial analysis group. The images, using the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite data, represent weighted mean NO2 concentrations.

CHICAGO









DETROIT









HUSTON

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## jetcal1 (Mar 25, 2020)

N4521U said:


> Being retired,
> abandoned every day, my wife still works,
> at my bench most every day,
> eating occasionaly,
> ...


No, but we should.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 25, 2020)

mikewint said:


> A Pyrrhic Victory but a positive during this terrible disease pandemic:
> Satellite images show nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from 10 March to 22 March, 2020 compared to the same period last year.
> NO2, represented by the colour density on the maps, is shown to be in remarkably lower concentrations this month over New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Detroit and Houston........



I may regret this but......WTF does this have to do with anything???

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> You missed the opportunity to quarantine with your GF. I've heard of quite a few people doing this, just so they're not holed up by themselves, THAT is what would drive me crazy.



Yup, there was no way we could quarantine together, not with my work hours at night, but we have discovered a loophole in that I'm her son's alternate guardian and that means we are in the same circle. Weare lucky where I live since we are on the side of a hill that is sparsely housed and there's walking tracks around us, so can get out and get fresh air at least.

Are you in walking distance from the Wither Hills?

As they say, stay safe.


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## gumbyk (Mar 25, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Yup, there was no way we could quarantine together, not with my work hours at night, but we have discovered a loophole in that I'm her son's alternate guardian and that means we are in the same circle. Weare lucky where I live since we are on the side of a hill that is sparsely housed and there's walking tracks around us, so can get out and get fresh air at least.
> 
> Are you in walking distance from the Wither Hills?
> 
> As they say, stay safe.


Yeah, might get out for a ride - that's got to be almost the same as a walk, and actually less likely to encounter someone.

Work has started to dry up; a couple of customers do ag work, and things like re-seeding for winter can't really be put off or there'll be no feed next summer. Also got a customer who does a bit of Civil Defence type work that has to be ready to go, so we're working on risk management plans for them. But after that, who knows?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

A person from my building at work has tested positive and was hospitalized due to their symptoms. Apparently he became infected after we started working from home though.

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## MIflyer (Mar 26, 2020)

By the way, any lady who needs a mask probably already has a supply of them.

However, they call them "brassieres." Cut a bra in half in the middle, wrap the strap around and sew on catch of some kind for it. If you want more filtering put a used dryer sheet on the inside or outside, or both.

Those molded paper masks you see originally were designed by 3M to be bras. They worked great but were so ugly no lady would wear one. But someone put one over his face and said, "Hey! You can breathe through this!" And a new accidental product line was born.

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## mikewint (Mar 26, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> Cut a bra in half in the middle, wrap the strap around and sew on catch of some kind for it. If you want more filtering put a used dryer sheet on the inside or outside, or both.



AND, If she is exceptionally well-endowed you can make Fencing Masks for the whole family....

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## MIflyer (Mar 26, 2020)

P.S. Don't try this with an Aluminum Training Bra.

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## Johnny Curedents (Mar 26, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Just to put this to bed.
> 
> *THERE IS NO EFFECTIVE TREATMENT FOR COVID-19 OTHER THAN SUPPORTIVE CARE. THIS IS WHY THE ISOLATION AND LOCKDOWNS ARE HAPPENING. *
> 
> ...



Source?


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## Bucksnort101 (Mar 26, 2020)

Co-worker called in sick this past Monday. Then she came to work on Tuesday with a runny nose and sneezing. Management sent her home. Wonder what part of "If you're sick, stay home" she didn't understand?


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## fubar57 (Mar 26, 2020)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Source?


He's a for real doctor

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## Vincenzo (Mar 26, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
cases 80,539, deaths 8,215, recovered 10,361, tests 361,060
fatality rate 10.2%
mortality rate 136 per million
tests rate 6 per thousand


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## jetcal1 (Mar 26, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. today
> cases 80,539, deaths 8,215, recovered 10,361, tests 361,060
> fatality rate 10.2%
> mortality rate 136 per million
> tests rate 6 per thousand


Stay safe!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

53% of my company at my location (there are 16,000 of us) can work from home. 

2 more of those who cannot were sent home today. It’s started.


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## gumbyk (Mar 26, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 53% of my company at my location (there are 16,000 of us) can work from home.
> 
> 2 more of those who cannot were sent home today. It’s started.


Stay safe Adler...

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## grueni62 (Mar 26, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Just to put this to bed.
> ...
> Symptoms and manner of spread are similar to flu however COVID-19 is 3 times more infectious as 3-10 times more deadly.
> *To put it in context.
> ...



not to contradict the doc or a „Globetrotting Surgeon General„ 
but if COVID-19 is 3 times as infectious as a flu at 1,3-1,5 infections per cycle, 
that brings the COVID-19 rate per cycle to 3,9 - 4,5 
and the number of cases after 10 cycles to 814.040 - 3.405.063 
the increase for even 0,1 is surprisingly high


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## gumbyk (Mar 26, 2020)

grueni62 said:


> not to contradict the doc or a „Globetrotting Surgeon General„
> but if COVID-19 is 3 times as infectious as a flu at 1,3-1,5 infections per cycle,
> that brings the COVID-19 rate per cycle to 3,9 - 4,5
> and the number of cases after 10 cycles to 814.040 - 3.405.063
> the increase for even 0,1 is surprisingly high



Either way its still f**king scary, so why pick at rounding differences?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Stay safe Adler...



I’m good, I have been working from home for almost 2 weeks now. Thanks though.

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## mikewint (Mar 26, 2020)

It's good to know that America's youth is not going to let a silly virus stop their partying....Ya know it's been MONTHS!!!



And per Hollywood it's silly to worry...your gonna die anyway


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## Airframes (Mar 26, 2020)

That is *SO *bl**dy annoying !
They need their ars*s kicking, hard !!

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## gumbyk (Mar 26, 2020)

Well, its not like church leaders (or any leaders) are giving clear, unambiguous advice.

Someone wanted church pews packed for Easter....

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## Gnomey (Mar 26, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, its not like church leaders (or any leaders) are giving clear, unambiguous advice.
> 
> Someone wanted church pews packed for Easter....


Well they do believe they’re all safe because it’s gods will and prayer will protect them...

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## MiTasol (Mar 26, 2020)

mikewint said:


> It's good to know that America's youth is not going to let a silly virus stop their partying....Ya know it's been MONTHS!!!
> 
> 
> 
> And per Hollywood it's silly to worry...your gonna die anyway




Same sort of idiots on tv here last night too

Good news was they are starting to show the young ones who died on the news which should slow this "it only kills boomers" crap that some of the young are spouting.
Unfortunately, unless a news item is about saint Greta or Kim K I do not think these self centred twits pay attention


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## Marcel (Mar 26, 2020)

There are now more people infected in the USA than there have been in China according to the New York Times.


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## MiTasol (Mar 26, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Well they do believe they’re all safe because it’s gods will and prayer will protect them...



and until they find out the hard way like that Korean church they will continue to believe that


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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, its not like church leaders (or any leaders) are giving clear, unambiguous advice.
> 
> Someone wanted church pews packed for Easter....



Not my Church. All services globally were cancelled 2 weeks ago, albeit with a very.limited set of exceptions. At the same time, senior citizen and medically vulnerable missionaries were returned home. The exceptional services have now also been cancelled. From where I sit, the guidance has been specific, unambiguous and pretty appropriate to the understood threat.


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## gumbyk (Mar 26, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Not my Church. All services globally were cancelled 2 weeks ago, albeit with a very.limited set of exceptions. At the same time, senior citizen and medically vulnerable missionaries were returned home. The exceptional services have now also been cancelled. From where I sit, the guidance has been specific, unambiguous and pretty appropriate to the understood threat.


Arkansas pastor claims church members willing to 'lick the floor' to prove coronavirus a hoax
Missouri Sues Televangelist Jim Bakker For Selling Fake Coronavirus Cure
Conservative pastor says his church "will never close" because of coronavirus: "We're raising up revivalists, not pansies"
Trump’s Easter goal in war on virus a nod to faith, business

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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2020)

As a (slight) tonic to all the bad news, at 2000 this evening, people all over the UK leaned out of their windows or stood in their yards and clapped as a sign of thanks to the National Health Service staff who are combating the virus. A classy gesture. Hopefully,.many health workers heard their neighbours' gratitude.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Same sort of idiots on tv here last night too
> 
> Good news was they are starting to show the young ones who died on the news which should slow this "it only kills boomers" crap that some of the young are spouting.
> Unfortunately, *unless a news item is about saint Greta or Kim K I do not think these self centred twits pay attention*



Depends on your choice of news poison. A good portion of our country thinks this a hoax because a certain someone told them it was. There are bumbling dumb idiots on both sides of the coin, and at all levels of society.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

Marcel said:


> There are now more people infected in the USA than there have been in China according to the New York Times.



USA! USA! USA!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

Crimea_River I opened no door. I chose my words very wisely. Sorry I have to delete it, it only opens a can of worms.  

(Funny video though. I have seen it...  )


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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2020)

It is a tad frightening considering its possible impact. I saw recently that 85 percent of those who get covid-19 will recover successfully, but I don't like the chances for the 15 percent who won't...

Not exactly the most accurate source, but interesting to see those little numbers ticking over as time goes on:

Coronavirus Update (Live): 531,806 Cases and 24,073 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Note that the Diamond Princess cruise ship has its own column! Well, that was a dumb idea...


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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> USA! USA! USA!



Yup, Still Number One! The Greatest Country In The World! (Sorry, couldn't help it. Said with tongue firmly planted in cheek.)

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## fubar57 (Mar 26, 2020)

My post was moved from another thread, doesn't make sense any more


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> My post was moved from another thread, doesn't make sense any more



Yeah mu apologies. I screwed it up during the move. The announcement thread was supposed to be a closed thread.

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## gumbyk (Mar 26, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Crimea_River I opened no door. I chose my words very wisely.
> 
> (Funny video though. I have seen it...  )


Looks like one of mine may have been deleted too. No worries I wasn't particularly attached to it...


(or maybe I thought better of it and didn't post)

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## fubar57 (Mar 26, 2020)

Mine as well


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Looks like one of mine may have been deleted too. No worries I wasn't particularly attached to it...
> 
> 
> (or maybe I thought better of it and didn't post)



You must have thought better.  I only deleted one. It was a soft delete. Only made non visible. Technically the post is still there.


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## pbehn (Mar 27, 2020)

Boris Johnson, (British Prime Minister) and Prince Charles (British son of his mother) have both tested positive for CV-19. The kettle has been put on with crisis level increased to "time for a brew".


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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 27, 2020)

I have heard from a marginally informed medical source that maintaining a 40 proof alcohol content in one's saliva will kill the virus. I am doing my best to maintain that regimen as I self-isolate. However, the furniture is proving to be something of a nuisance. Someone keeps moving it in my path.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 27, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Crimea_River I opened no door. I chose my words very wisely. Sorry I have to delete it, it only opens a can of worms.
> 
> (Funny video though. I have seen it...  )


 
Figured that would happen but your post 991 was an open door in my mind - and it's still there. Anyway no argument from me.


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## Marcel (Mar 27, 2020)

My wife’s cousin has it. He’s in hospital with a double pneumonia. His wife and kids have the mild variety.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

Marcel said:


> My wife’s cousin has it. He’s in hospital with a double pneumonia. His wife and kids have the mild variety.



Take care my friend. Be safe.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

A guy from my floor at work who had to work from the office came down with symptoms a few days ago and was sent home. He, however, was not tested. That pisses me off. The response in this country to the virus is a joke.

With an incubation period of up to 14 days, and we have been working from home for 10 now, we all were possibly exposed to him.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 27, 2020)

Hope all here stay healthy.

Went out for a walk yesterday and ran into a friend who was doing the same. We stopped and chatted, keeping our 2 meter distance. Paul told me that he was out the other day and ran into someone he hadn't seen in a while. Turns out this guy just got back from the US 2 days ago. Now, it's s standing order in our country that, if you have travelled outside of our borders and return, you must self isolate for 14 days, punishable by fine. So Paul asked what the hell he was doing out here walking about. He said he felt fine so why the fuss. They went their separate ways and then Paul saw him sitting with an octogenarian with emphysema.

God save us from stupid people.

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## mikewint (Mar 27, 2020)

Saw on the news that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for COVID-19 and as I recall so did Prince Charles.
Detroit, Chicago (take care T-Bolt), and New Orleans are the new epicenters in the US.
A 1YO baby in Florida has tested positive and a 17YO in California became the first child to die of the virus in the US
The Washington Post reported that 300 people in Iran had died after drinking methanol to "cure" the virus and another 1,000 were seriously ill after drinking the methanol
South Africa is on a three week total lock-down and has banned dog walking, cigarette sales and alcohol sales (AP news release)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Saw on the news that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for COVID-19 and as I recall so did Prince Charles.
> Detroit, Chicago (take care T-Bolt), and New Orleans are the new epicenters in the US.
> A 1YO baby in Florida has tested positive and a 17YO in California became the first child to die of the virus in the US
> The Washington Post reported that 300 people in Iran had died after drinking methanol to "cure" the virus and another 1,000 were seriously ill after drinking the methanol
> South Africa is on a three week total lock-down and has banned dog walking, cigarette sales and alcohol sales (AP news release)



According to the CDC, New York City is the epicenter not Detroit, Chicago, or New Orleans. They are seeing more cases but nothing like New York. New Yorks daily cases are more than any city in the US. It averages 5,500 cases a day, and so far almost 45,000 cases alone.

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres


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## herman1rg (Mar 27, 2020)

Well drinking methanol is another height of stupidity I've just heard about.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

herman1rg said:


> Well drinking methanol is another height of stupidity I've just heard about.



That is what happens when unqualified people give medical advice to others.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 27, 2020)

Trump had spent quite a bit of time with several leaders that were tested positive for COVID-19. He might very well end up testing positive, as did Johnson.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 27, 2020)

In Croatia, we're now at almost 600 tested positive. Several deaths have occured. Population is a bit more than 4 million.



oldcrowcv63 said:


> I have heard from a marginally informed medical source that maintaining a 40 proof alcohol content in one's saliva will kill the virus. I am doing my best to maintain that regimen as I self-isolate. However, the furniture is proving to be something of a nuisance. Someone keeps moving it in my path.



Cheers, oldcrow, long time no see

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## mikewint (Mar 27, 2020)

Chris, my error, re-read the article and the term actually used was that they (Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans) were becoming "HOT SPOTS" not epicenters as I posted: Lapus Memori


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## Vincenzo (Mar 27, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. today
cases 86,498, deaths 9,134, recovered 10,950, tests 394,079
fatality rate 10.6%
mortality rate 151 per million
tests rate 6.5 per thousand


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)



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## vikingBerserker (Mar 27, 2020)

LMAO, Awesome!

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## herman1rg (Mar 27, 2020)

I agree viking


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> LMAO, Awesome!



I think it is important to try and maintain a sense of humor in these crazy times.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 27, 2020)

Always good. It's the universal language, unless you are German.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 27, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Always good. It's the universal language, unless you are German.



Das stimmt!

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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 27, 2020)

Cheers, oldcrow, long time no see [/QUOTE]

Yes, I have missed you guys (and the occasional gal) while submerged in distracting occupations that have required what remains of my full attention. I have resisted the occasional temptation to barge into the forum with some typically pithy comment (e.g. "_squirrel!_"). That resistance was helped by forgetting my password,  and not making the effort required to reset it (hey! it's complicated ). Forgetting things and trying to remember them is becoming an all-absorbing hobby , no doubt now accelerated by the 40-proof state of my saliva .

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## fubar57 (Mar 27, 2020)

Welcome back Malcolm

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 27, 2020)

It is good to see you my friend. I will be attempting to equal the proof of your saliva myself this weekend!

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## mikewint (Mar 27, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Das stimmt!



*Und du wirst es mögen und du wirst lachen - verstehen*


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## Gnomey (Mar 27, 2020)

Firstly stay safe everyone.

Secondly drinking methanol it’s bad for you ok.

Thirdly here is what to look out for with one addition the loss of taste and smell is also a symptom.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 27, 2020)

Jawohl!


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## gumbyk (Mar 27, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You must have thought better.  I only deleted one. It was a soft delete. Only made non visible. Technically the post is still there.


O.K. It was marginal, but if you have to stop and think, it probably got too close to the line.


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## MiTasol (Mar 27, 2020)

mikewint said:


> *Und du wirst es mögen und du wirst lachen - verstehen*



Yes sir
No sir
Three bags full SIR


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## MiTasol (Mar 27, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Secondly drinking methanol it’s bad for you ok.



Back in the seventies there were several mass deaths in PNG from methanol.
In the first some locals stole some metho, MEK and several other fluids with potent vapours and mixed them together and naturally most who drank it died

In the second a group stole some water-meth from Rabaul airport and again many died. The government decided it was the stockists fault and announced they would be taking them to court for causing these deaths. Next morning the law of unintended consequences struck when first (Government airline) Fokker arrived and ordered full tanks of water-meth, as always, and were told _we destroyed it all_. The aircraft departed very empty and even then the takeoff was reportedly pretty marginal. No more water-meth until the threat of court action was firmly rejected.


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## MiTasol (Mar 27, 2020)

The law of unintended consequences strikes again

Malaysian men in shopping muddle amid lockdown

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## gumbyk (Mar 27, 2020)

BWa hahaha!!
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/mexican-protesters-block-border-crossing-over-coronavirus/

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 27, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report 5 p.m. today
> cases 86,498, deaths 9,134, recovered 10,950, tests 394,079
> fatality rate 10.6%
> mortality rate 151 per million
> tests rate 6.5 per thousand



I look every day for your report to reassure myself that you're not one of the 'statistics'.
Keep reporting please!
(could you add "new cases today"?)

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## fubar57 (Mar 27, 2020)



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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 28, 2020)

"mikewint said, "_Und du wirst es mögen und du wirst lachen - verstehen_[?]"

Zuerst, Ich Verstehe nicht, Mike. Mein Deutch ist vierzig jähr alt und Ich vergessen zu viele. as my literal English-to-Deutch translation allows.

I think, It means"_I will like it and I will laugh_" As in a command, no? "_I *WILL* like it and I *WILL* Laugh._"

In which case, "_*Jawohl! Main Fuehrer!*_"  

(Apologies John (R.), if you are listening or reading this forum from on high test flying your new Supermarine-like wings.)


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 28, 2020)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> "mikewint said, "_Und du wirst es mögen und du wirst lachen - verstehen_[?]"
> 
> Zuerst, Ich Verstehe nicht, Mike. Mein Deutch ist vierzig jähr alt und Ich vergessen zu viele. as my literal English-to-Deutch translation allows.
> 
> ...


You will like it and you will laugh. Does not have to be an order, so keep your fuhrer in your pants. )

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## T Bolt (Mar 28, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Saw on the news that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for COVID-19 and as I recall so did Prince Charles.
> Detroit, *Chicago (take care T-Bolt), *and New Orleans are the new epicenters in the US.



Trying too. Since I'm an "Essential Critical Infrastructure Worker" I'm still working but only outside. I refuse to step foot in our field office which is in a 4 story office building. Still feels very stressful working around other people outside even though I'm keeping my distance. Both kids in collage are doing there work on-line and my wife is still at home with a broken shoulder and recovering from a PE she threw after the surgery.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 28, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. (CET) today
cases 92,472, new cases 5,974, deaths 10,023, new deaths 889, recovered 12,384, new recovered 1,434, tests 429,536, new tests 35,457
fatality rate 10.8%
mortality rate 166 per million
tests rate 7.1 per thousand

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2020)

As I said before, I take this very serious. I wish so many others would as well. At the same time we need to keep our humanity. Having a sense of humor goes along with that.

Enjoy...

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## gjs238 (Mar 28, 2020)

Is this the genesis of the next baby boom?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2020)

gjs238 said:


> Is this the genesis of the next baby boom?



I think we will see one...

If I were still able to have kids, the wife and I might have possibly been in trouble with all this sheltering in place.


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## Marcel (Mar 28, 2020)

So everywhere in the world, people are stocking food in order to face this crisis and in America they start buying more weapons? I do like America very much, but I don’t even pretend I understand them.


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## mikewint (Mar 28, 2020)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> As in a command, no?


My Deutsch is nicht sehr gut. Parents spoke broken hillbilly sort of German so what I grew up with actually hurt my ability to learn/speak Real German when i took classes in college. In present day spoken German (Chris correct me if I err here) there is a tendency to use the Familiar/Informal Case to just about everyone. In my limited German the use of DU WIRST softens the command whereas had I said SIE WERDEN in formal case it hardens into a command.
If Mom called out Komst Du hier I knew I was OK BUT... KOMMEN SIE HIER was an Oh scheisen I'm dead meat

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2020)

Marcel said:


> So everywhere in the world, people are stocking food in order to face this crisis and in America they start buying more weapons? I do like America very much, but I don’t even pretend I understand them.



People here are afraid of:

1. People coming to steal their food when society breaks down.

2. The big bad gubment imposing martial law and taking their freedumz!

I don’t quite understand Americans either, and I am one.


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## pbehn (Mar 28, 2020)

Marcel said:


> So everywhere in the world, people are stocking food in order to face this crisis and in America they start buying more weapons? I do like America very much, but I don’t even pretend I understand them.


In UK they are now throwing out the stuff they didn't want but bought in a panic weeks and months ago, happily toilet rolls don't go out of date.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 28, 2020)

gjs238 said:


> Is this the genesis of the next baby boom?



Some of us are of sufficient age that a "baby boom" means blowing up cabbage patch kids.

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## mikewint (Mar 28, 2020)

Marcel said:


> don’t even pretend I understand them


Can't speak for everyone but personally -
I'm too old to run very far or very fast and by the same token to stand my ground and take an arse whoppin
So simply put -
Since I can't throw a rock at 3200 feet per second and cops are way too big to keep in my pocket - I carry Col. Colt's solution to the problem

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## MIflyer (Mar 28, 2020)

pbehn said:


> In UK they are now throwing out the stuff they didn't want but bought in a panic weeks and months ago, happily toilet rolls don't go out of date



Well, you CAN freeze toilet paper and it will keep for a loooong time.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 28, 2020)

mikewint said:


> So simply put -


 When seconds count, the Police are only minutes away.

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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 28, 2020)

I think what may be happening is that folks without weapons are suddenly waking up to the idea that maybe in a society suddenly confronted by shortages of what have been perceived as essentials, (like fresh cooked pizza, the absence of which is certainly the first harbinger of doom) they would be one harbinger short of a catastrophic breakdown of the society which would result in riffraff breaking into homes to steal people's mozzarella. In this country we defend our mozzarella, let alone our freedom (to buy and eat pizza) with our lives. Therefore I think the people procuring mozzarella defense weapons (commonly and mistakenly believed to be for "home defense") are mainly those without weaponry, unless of course they are looking to upgrade to anti-tank artillery or land mines when things really go to sh*t. That's my current theory, but I could be wrong. Ok, it's a stupid post... Remember that 40 proof saliva before judging. There may be more such contributions.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 28, 2020)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> I think what may be happening is that folks without weapons are suddenly waking up to the idea that maybe in a society suddenly confronted by shortages of what have been perceived as essentials, (like fresh cooked pizza, the absence of which is certainly the first harbinger of doom) they would be one harbinger short of a catastrophic breakdown of the society which would result in riffraff breaking into homes to steal people's mozzarella. In this country we defend our mozzarella, let alone our freedom (to buy and eat pizza) with our lives. Therefore I think the people procuring mozzarella defense weapons (commonly and mistakenly believed to be for "home defense") are mainly those without weaponry, unless of course they are looking to upgrade to anti-tank artillery or land mines when things really go to sh*t. That's my current theory, but I could be wrong. Ok, it's a stupid post... Remember that 40 proof saliva before judging. There may be more such contributions.


You should drink much more, or much less.

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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 28, 2020)

I think I had a point to make but kind of lost it part way through the post. That seems to happen a lot now.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2020)

Good clip from "the man."
Trevor Noah gets 13 minutes with the one guy you want to listen to on COVID-19

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## MIflyer (Mar 28, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> When seconds count, the Police are only minutes away.



From responding to the wrong address.

But seriously folks, in various areas around the country they are letting criminals out of jail so they won't catch COVID-19 and a number of district attorneys have decided that many crimes are not worth prosecuting, or at least requiring bail even if they are arrested.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 28, 2020)

but are arresting people for breaking stay at home rules or crowd limit size. That one really lost me.

Only reason I'm stocking up on guns and ammo is to protect the toilet paper!

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## ThomasP (Mar 28, 2020)

Hey guys,

For anyone interested in the historical aspects of viral pandemics involving the USA in the past 100 years or so (and by extension the rest of the world).

Found this a couple of years ago when I was researching WWII operational stuff and got sidetracked into medical aspects of the war, which led me to some WWI stuff and medical aspects of that war, etc. Just found the links again:

1918 Pandemic Influenza Historic Timeline | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

Influenza Milestones 1917 – 2009 Timeline | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-re...images/pandemic-flu-milestone-infographic.jpg

Plus this for the 2009 influenza pandemic:

2009 H1N1 Pandemic


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## nsmekanik (Mar 28, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Good clip from "the man."
> Trevor Noah gets 13 minutes with the one guy you want to listen to on COVID-19



This always bugs me


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## fubar57 (Mar 28, 2020)

Odd Tim. I got the video. Maybe its just Eastern Canada


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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> So everywhere in the world, people are stocking food in order to face this crisis and in America they start buying more weapons? I do like America very much, but I don’t even pretend I understand them.


Because guns are about the only thing left on the shelves here...

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## Zipper730 (Mar 29, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Because guns are about the only thing left on the shelves here...


Plus, I think those types are suspecting a zombie-apocalypse.


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## Marcel (Mar 29, 2020)

One of my wife’s friends firmly believes that the virus spread is caused by the 5G system. Her way of thought: the virus originated from China where the 5G system is from and in The Netherlands it started in Brabant, where they are testing 5G at the moment.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> One of my wife’s friends firmly believes that the virus spread is caused by the 5G system. Her way of thought: the virus originated from China where the 5G system is from and in The Netherlands it started in Brabant, where they are testing 5G at the moment.


I've heard that claim. While there are some issues with 5G, this isn't one of them.


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## nsmekanik (Mar 29, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Odd Tim. I got the video. Maybe its just Eastern Canada


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## Elmas (Mar 29, 2020)

Probaly some of yours will already know ...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> One of my wife’s friends firmly believes that the virus spread is caused by the 5G system. Her way of thought: the virus originated from China where the 5G system is from and in The Netherlands it started in Brabant, where they are testing 5G at the moment.



My father thought the same thing, until I explained to him what 5G is...lol


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## Glider (Mar 29, 2020)

A virus story that made me smile. In Malaysia some Einstein came up with the instruction that only the head of the household was allowed out of the house. The result was many thousands of men having to do the shopping for the first time, resulting in a new definition of the phrase 'Panic Buying'.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> So everywhere in the world, people are stocking food in order to face this crisis and in America they start buying more weapons? I do like America very much, but I don’t even pretend I understand them.



In some areas looting has begun. I spoke to an old friend who lives north of LA. He told me there's been issues with looters (Palmdale/ Lancaster) especially around closed businesses. In rural areas the police may not be able to respond to an issue rapidly so people are taking matters into their own hands or making sure that are capable of defending themselves. Im my part of the country, it seems even the criminals have gone on hiatus. Some politicians talked about confiscating guns before everything else.


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## fubar57 (Mar 29, 2020)

Vancouver and Victoria, B.C. are experiencing a spike in break-ins as well in closed shops


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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 29, 2020)

Before I took refuge in enhanced saliva toxicity, I Found this CDC website about the seasonal burden of the Flu in recent years: 

Burden of Influenza

Unfortunately, the numbers appear to diminish concern about the impact of the COVID-19 Virus in terms of its societal impact. Consider the estimated 61,000 US dead and over 800,000 hospitalizations during the 2017-2018 and other seasonal outbreaks for which vaccines were available and widely distributed. Today, the US is reporting only a little over 2,200 dead with about 123,000 reported cases. In simple numbers, this flu looks to be relatively inconsequential over a season, but we are in the midst of it and don't yet know the final toll. One might ask, what's the big deal? It's just another flu. The video presentation by Fauci posted by Flyboy provides some needed perspective on the Rona with its focused and high mortality rate and extreme contagion, compared to these other seasonal flu outbreaks whose effects were spread over a seasonal time frame instead of weeks to a month.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Plus, I think those types are suspecting a zombie-apocalypse.


In California, the Governor is ordering the release of inmates from state and county prisons and has pardoned some pretty hard-core felons.
His explanations seem to vary, but supposedly it's to make room for "infected inmates", which doesn't makes much sense.

So that's not helping an already frightened public...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

How Serving in the Military in both Iraq and Afghanistan has prepared Me For This Pandemic: (Copied from my fellow military brothers/sisters)

1. You're used to seeing the same thing every day for months on end. The same colors, the same people, the same buildings.

2. You're used to being in a specific, defined area and not being able to leave.

3. Being told you can't go to certain places doesn't bother you.

4. Eating the same food, at the same place, every day, every week, every month is no big deal.

5. AAFES sells-out of stuff for months and you just roll with it.

6. Unless you're seriously injured, or sick enough to be in danger of dying, you're used to medical personnel telling you there's nothing they can do for you. Drink more water, and take the Tylenol or whatever you have in your personal stash.

7. You get a respiratory infection from Hell every time you go on R&R.

8. You are near people from all over the world who don't necesssrily use Western standards of Personal Hygiene.

9. Using bathrooms and showers that are shared by hundreds of people a day, and get nasty beyond description...is routine. Not to mention Porta-Johns that would scare Satan himself.

10. You live and work in parts of the world where Tuberculosis and the danger of a smallpox outbreak is something the Army takes very seriously.

11. You can get along with a$$holes you desperately want to throat punch. Every. Single. Day. For months.

12. Being "Bored" takes on a whole new meaning. We can deal.

13. The idea of dying is a little more real to you every hour of every day than it is to most people back home. It isn't a joke.

All the while, the Mujahideen, Al Quada, Iranian Militia, Insurgents, etc are trying to kill you.

Hang in there, y'all. This too will pass.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 29, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 97,689, new 5,217, deaths 10,779, new 756, recovered 13,030, new 646, tests 454,030, new 24,494* * one region miss
fatality rate 11%
mortality rate 179 per million
tests rate 7.5 per thousand

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## Marcel (Mar 29, 2020)

Here in the Netherlands, they are not testing as much anymore. So there are way more patients and deaths related to the virus then what they know. Death count is now 771, but probably is twice as high. Known infected is around 10800. We’ve run out of the 1000 IC beds we could mobilise, so from now on its survival of the fittest.

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## MIflyer (Mar 29, 2020)

And in the military you are used to having someone grab you and stick a needle in your arm.

What I'd like to see is Pres Trump say the following during one of the news conferences:

"In the past we have had problems with people encrypting the databases in hospitals and public facilities and demanding ransom to release them.".

"This is unacceptable, but I can tell you that now, in this grave emergency, it will simply not be tolerated. If this occurs we will consider it an act of war! We will go to whatever lengths are required to exterminate the criminals. We will not sue. We will not prosecute. We will kill! If any nation tries to protect the cybercriminals by interfering with our response then that entire nation will be considered to be complicit. If you want anti-tank missile to come through your window as you sit at your computer, or a much larger missile to lay waste to your entire town, just try to pull some of this cybercrime now! For offenders within the United States we will sit aside posse comitas and use the military directly against the offenders, with or without the cooperation of the local authorities! No more Mr Nice Guy when it comes to this kind of crap!"

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## gumbyk (Mar 29, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> And in the military you are used to having someone grab you and stick a needle in your arm.
> 
> What I'd like to see is Pres Trump say the following during one of the news conferences:
> 
> ...


Some would take that as a challenge, and I don't think this is the time to be picking fights.

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## gumbyk (Mar 29, 2020)

We've just had our first death, a woman in her 70's with multiple underlying health issues. Thing is, the hospital treating her initially though tit was flu, so weren't taking the precautions they should have, and now 21 medical staff are in quarantine.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Here in the Netherlands, they are not testing as much anymore. So there are way more patients and deaths related to the virus then what they know. Death count is now 771, but probably is twice as high. Known infected is around 10800. We’ve run out of the 1000 IC beds we could mobilise, so from now on its survival of the fittest.



Nobody is testing the numbers they should.

People need to start listening to the *REAL EXPERTS*, business cannot be ready by Easter in our country. Doing that will only send more to their deaths.

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## mikewint (Mar 29, 2020)

You Guys is always talking about your "Personal Stash" so here be mine, and sorry not sold at Ikea


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## Gnomey (Mar 29, 2020)

Whilst the curve is still on the upward trend then the impact won’t seem to bad in terms of deaths etc. However once the ITU capacity it all used then is when the real toll will be seen. Already there are cases where we are avoiding ITU care for far longer than we would in any other situation because of the clinical course of the disease.

Some people can walk into the emergency department and leave intubated and ventilated to ITU and then be in multi-organ failure in the space of 3-6 hours. The deterioration is rapid when it comes and death is too if there’s no ITU capacity.

But that said here’s some light hearted relief...

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## pbehn (Mar 29, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> Well, you CAN freeze toilet paper and it will keep for a loooong time.
> 
> View attachment 575342


Up to last week the UK had spent an EXTRA £1 billion on groceries in a month. That is obviously £1 billion that will go in the skip because there isn't a shortage of anything, just a logistical problem caused by idiots suddenly buying everything they can see because they can see it.

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## pbehn (Mar 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Nobody is testing the numbers they should.
> 
> People need to start listening to the *REAL EXPERTS*, business cannot be ready by Easter in our country. Doing that will only send more to their deaths.


In UK our press and media quite obviously don't listen to the experts they are asking questions and we have former Prime Ministers weighing in who obviously havnt listened to anything for months. Its hard to figure out what the situation is and the media are zero help at all.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

pbehn said:


> In UK our press and media quite obviously don't listen to the experts they are asking questions and we have former Prime Ministers weighing in who obviously havnt listened to anything for months. Its hard to figure out what the situation is and the media are zero help at all.



Par for the course I see.


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## rochie (Mar 29, 2020)

Watching the government update every day, it looks to me at least the media are now starting to turn against the government.

questions are now more about " should we have done x, y or z sooner" etc, expecting things can just be plucked out of thin air and be in exactly the right place at the right time, like no one else in the world is trying to get their hands on the same products


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## pbehn (Mar 29, 2020)

rochie said:


> Watching the government update every day, it looks to me at least the media are now starting to turn against the government.
> 
> questions are now more about " should we have done x, y or z sooner" etc, expecting things can just be plucked out of thin air and be in exactly the right place at the right time, like no one else in the world is trying to get their hands on the same products


What I see is people turning against the media. Today the BBC asked "what will next week look like" what sort of idiotic question is that? They seem incapable of acting like grown ups in a serious situation.

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## rochie (Mar 29, 2020)

pbehn said:


> What I see is people turning against the media. Today the BBC asked "what will next week look like" what sort of idiotic question is that? They seem incapable of acting like grown ups in a serious situation.


on the bbc website it had "what would of happened if corona virus hit in 2005 ? "

I what kind of crap is that ?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

rochie said:


> Watching the government update every day, it looks to me at least the media are now starting to turn against the government.
> 
> questions are now more about " should we have done x, y or z sooner" etc, expecting things can just be plucked out of thin air and be in exactly the right place at the right time, like no one else in the world is trying to get their hands on the same products



Same here, but many think that is fake news too.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 29, 2020)

Two publications in Soviet times: Izvestia and Pravda. The names mean "news" and "truth" respectively.
The saying among Soviets: "There is no izvestia in Izvestia, there is no pravda in Pravda".
Meaning: it's all politically motivated propaganda with a few facts stirred in to make it look/read different from Yesterday's propaganda.
It seems to me this has become a global pandemic, infecting most (all?) "news" publications.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 29, 2020)

Actually i think was: there is no pravda in Izvestia and there is not izvestia in Pravda, В «Правде» нет известий, в «Известиях» нет правды
if was actually in use in Soviet Union idk

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 29, 2020)

I don't think of it as fake news, but I also don't trust something that appears to me of being sensationalized.

Worldwide, the total number of positive cases of this has finally exceeded the upper range of estimated deaths (and deaths alone) from the flu this season. In the US alone, flu has required 400,000 to 730,000 to be hospitalized with 18,000,000 to 26,000,000 Dr's visits and 24,000 to 62,000 deaths (from CDC).

Worldwide 1 billion people have contracted the flu with 291,000 to 646,000 deaths. (I could not find total stats on hospitalization). 

As of today there are 718,685 confirmed cases of Covid-19, most of which are of people that can recover at home. Of these there have been 33,881 deaths.

We going all out to stop Covid-19 (a novel virus) while we ignore the 800 lb gorilla in the room (that our systems have been fighting off for years and is still kicking our arse). 291,000 to 646,000 have died and 1,000,000+ have been hospitalized and we don't bat an eyelash but this comes along and early on the world goes crazy. Personally, I am far more concerned about Ebola of which some strains have a 90% death rate.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates 
Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 29, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Actually i think was: there is no pravda in Izvestia and there is not izvestia in Pravda, В «Правде» нет известий, в «Известиях» нет правды
> if was actually in use in Soviet Union idk


It seems you're right. Either way, it's a telling comment.
There is no truth in the news and no news in the truth from Planck's Constant
Roaring Youth Of America Today Need Rapid Defense Against Liberal Lies And Deceit Before All Is Lost
There is no Pravda in Izvestia
Izvestia at 100: A Russian Century Through the Lens of the Top Soviet Newspaper (halfway down the long page).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> I don't think of it as fake news, but I also don't trust something that appears to me of being sensationalized.
> 
> Worldwide, the total number of positive cases of this has finally exceeded the upper range of estimated deaths (and deaths alone) from the flu this season. In the US alone, flu has required 400,000 to 730,000 to be hospitalized with 18,000,000 to 26,000,000 Dr's visits and 24,000 to 62,000 deaths (from CDC).
> 
> ...



Except all the medical experts disagree with you. They repeatedly are saying this is nothing like the flu. They are saying it spreads easier, that since it is a novel virus we have no resistance to it (unlike the flu), and that the fatality rate is higher than flu.

People like Dr. Fauci (I get it, he is the big bad man now because he doesn’t bow down to others and repeat what they are supposed to say like a good lil minion), have stated that up 200,000 Americans will die from the virus this year if we do start taking this serious.

Fauci: Coronavirus could hit millions; Trump considers guidelines

Look I get it. I too thought this was nothing but another flu type event. The panic and the hoarding need to stop. People simply need to stay home and stop being vectors for the virus. Nut just because whatever flavor of news media you enjoy, or whatever flavor or leadership you care for disagrees with it for whatever reason that may be, its not the flu, and it needs to be taken serious.

Our medical professionals out there are telling us they are about to break. Why is it so hard to believe them? Once they break, death rates will rise because the people cannot be helped because the resources are not there. 

 Gnomey
is that an inaccurate thing to say?

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 29, 2020)

AIUI anybody who gets the flu didn't have immunity to that strain.
YES I think the Chinese Coronavirus AND "COVID-19" are overhyped, possibly for political ambitions; nevertheless this plague worries me on a few points:
1: Novelty: Influenza is all over the world. People talk about "flu season", but "flu season" in the world is like "Vodka Season" in Russia. (starts 1/1, runs to end of year). COVID-19 started in ONE point, and is world-wide now. In the next years, when Chinese Coronavirus (CCV) is not novel, it'll start in multiple places like Flu does, with slightly different strains here vs there. There will be vaccines for both, they will have varying effectiveness. This is a bit scary in its own right.
2: Communicability: CCV is much more efficient at propagating to new hosts than Influenza is. R-Nought for flu is like 1.3, for CCV is like 3. The effect of this is that in the time it takes influenza to go from 1 person to 14, CCV goes from 1 to 59,000. In the coming years, when there are multiple strains of CCV erupting from multiple locations, this could be quite damaging to nations and economies.
3: Lethality: Influenza appears to be lethal in .1% of cases, CCV appears to be lethal in 3% of cases averaged out. We don't really know this because China lies about its case load, Italy has some unusual characteristics (advanced age of society, greater incidence of underlying lung problems from smoking, intense import of infections from China to textile industries in Lombard region, etc), and the disease is too damned new to really boil the lethality down as we have with Influenza.
4: Virulence: the 1918-1920 Influenza plague could kill in a few hours. Modern Influenza kills (generally) in a few days. CCV kills rapidly, but it is too new to be certain if it is a few hours, a few handfuls of hours, or a few days. Current impression: if it kills it does so quickly, in hours.
5: Repeatability (I got it once but I'll get it again): Too little is known here for me to guess. Influenza mutates so rapidly that if you get this year's version, you'll be immune next year just from having it this year. However, next year will bring you at least one "new" strain you're not immune to. With CCV, it's too new to tell.
6: Side effects: Permanent lung damage? More susceptible in the future? Dunno.

I don't want to hype for panic's sake, but the enemy is deadly, and we don't have much to use against it.

Gnomey, please correct my Layman's Misunderstandings if you would please.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2020)

Political ambitions is why we got a late start on combating this, and why we were so poorly unprepared for this. I cannot go further into that without getting political.

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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 29, 2020)

Gnomey, your Ladybird Book was brilliant. Well posted sir.


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## MiTasol (Mar 30, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Vancouver and Victoria, B.C. are experiencing a spike in break-ins as well in closed shops



In Queensland the scum are breaking in to non-profits like the rural fire service and volunteer emergency services to steal the tools. One group even had their defibrillator taken.


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## cherry blossom (Mar 30, 2020)

Elmas said:


> Probaly some of yours will already know ...


Alternatives include  or

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## at6 (Mar 30, 2020)

God will protect you if you follow the guide lines. He never said that you'd be protected from stupidity.


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## at6 (Mar 30, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Well they do believe they’re all safe because it’s gods will and prayer will protect them...





fubar57 said:


> My post was moved from another thread, doesn't make sense any more


What does make much sense these days?


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## at6 (Mar 30, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> BWa hahaha!!
> https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/mexican-protesters-block-border-crossing-over-coronavirus/


At this rate, Mexico will build the wall after all.

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## at6 (Mar 30, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> In California, the Governor is ordering the release of inmates from state and county prisons and has pardoned some pretty hard-core felons.
> His explanations seem to vary, but supposedly it's to make room for "infected inmates", which doesn't makes much sense.
> 
> So that's not helping an already frightened public...


Dave, You have to remember that Newsom is a San Fransisco idiot. The new name is Crimafornia.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 30, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Some politicians talked about confiscating guns before everything else.


Have any followed through? I remember that happening in New Orleans with Katrina.



GrauGeist said:


> In California, the Governor is ordering the release of inmates from state and county prisons and has pardoned some pretty hard-core felons.


That's why I'd want some firepower. I had to go to great lengths to stock up on that much toilet paper j/k.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

So now the WH changed its tune again. Saying that keeping CV-19 deaths in America to 100,000 would be a job well done. Got to keep moving the bar. Ratings you know.

Now that it comes from the WH admin though, and not just from the medical experts maybe more will take it serious, and not think its just a media sensationalized flu.

I doubt it though. Not when you have governors and mayors with political ambitions issuing executive orders in some states that negate the necessary social distancing recommendations to stop the spread of the virus, and people stupid enough to believe them over the medical experts. But mah freedumz! 

Damn it is so hard to venture too far into political waters. I don’t want to be forced to close the thread because of me...

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## Crimea_River (Mar 30, 2020)

Well, as your northern neighbour, I can only say that I'm watching carefully and mostly shaking my head.

On the other end of the spectrum, there's this, which was on our news last night:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/germany-coronavirus-death-rate-reasons-1.5513816


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## buffnut453 (Mar 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Damn it is so hard to venture too far into political waters. I don’t want to be forced to close the thread because of me...



You need to stand in the corner and give yourself a good talking-to!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> You need to stand in the corner and give yourself a good talking-to!



Agreed...lol


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Well, as your northern neighbour, I can only say that I'm watching carefully and mostly shaking my head.
> 
> On the other end of the spectrum, there's this, which was on our news last night:
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/germany-coronavirus-death-rate-reasons-1.5513816



My family in Germany has the same sentiments as that article.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

Well the WH CV-19 coordinator just made herself a target and will be replaced. Cannot say contradicting things. She said best case we are looking at up to 200,000 deaths is the best case scenario. 

Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 coronavirus deaths 'if we do things almost perfectly'


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## oldcrowcv63 (Mar 30, 2020)

I wonder if she is including the second and third waves which are reputed to sometimes be worse than the original, although with vaccines in the modern day, it seems unlikely that they would be. 
In the meantime....

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## Marcel (Mar 30, 2020)

I also don’t want to be too political, but some governments just make me speechless

Brazil leader wants to end social distancing even as cases soar past 3,400


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I also don’t want to be too political, but some governments just make me speechless



It’s hard not to with all this idiocracy isn’t it?

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## Dinger (Mar 30, 2020)

Informative, very short, Youtube video from a UK doctor. He talks through some of the early statistics recently released by both the UK and EU healthcare authorities. The Video was posted on 30th March.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 30, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Have any followed through? I remember that happening in New Orleans with Katrina.


I haven't heard any more of this


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## pbehn (Mar 30, 2020)

Dinger said:


> Informative, very short, Youtube video from a UK doctor. He talks through some of the early statistics recently released by both the UK and EU healthcare authorities. The Video was posted on 30th March.



In the early stages it is quite possibly true, the virus will kill those who are old and sick much quicker than those who are. We are now seeing young fit people dying from CV-19 because they are in intensive care longer. The statistics change with time, that doesn't mean previous reports are untrue.


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## Torch (Mar 30, 2020)

pbehn said:


> No worries I don't eat Chinese food or drink Mexican beer, surprised the Chinese don't make their own beer to be honest.


Tsingtao Brewery - Wikipedia


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 30, 2020)

oldcrowcv63 said:


> View attachment 575535


3 times/hour! (("Never let a crisis go to waste" can be taken more than one way!))
Also note:
FDA Gives Emergency Authorization of Hydroxychloroquine Use

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## swampyankee (Mar 30, 2020)

Extrapolating from the 0.1% fatality rate for last year's flu to the reported 2% fatality rate for Covid-19, Birx is probably about right at 200,000. There were about 34,000 flu deaths last year (this is the best estimate), so one would expect about 700,000 fatalities for Covid-19, which puts it up into Spanish flu (which, as far as anyone can tell actually originated in Kansas) territory. Of course, the US population in 1918-1919 was about 110,000,000. 

Prisons and detention centers are highly crowded and tend to be places where diseases spread rapidly. Of course, releasing prisoners into a system where they don't have access to medical care or housing could also be a death sentence. One could go deeply into the failures of the US treatment of released felons, but that's not just dipping into politics but jumping in with both feet.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> 3 times/hour! (("Never let a crisis go to waste" can be taken more than one way!))
> Also note:
> FDA Gives Emergency Authorization of Hydroxychloroquine Use



See how that works? Now it a person’s Dr. tells them to take it at a specific dosage, said person should do so. Not when Joe Smith on Aviation Forum says to.


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## pbehn (Mar 30, 2020)

Torch said:


> Tsingtao Brewery - Wikipedia


I was just joking, I used to drink it when I was in China and went to Tsingtao when I was in China just before the Olympics were held there.


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## mikewint (Mar 30, 2020)

Projections of 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths is a best case scenario even "if we do things almost perfectly," Dr. Deborah Birx, the lead coordinator of the White House’s coronavirus task force, said on NBC's "Today" show.
On Monday morning, the U.S. had 143,055 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the deadly respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. At least 2,573 deaths have been recorded.
Around the world, nearly 7368000 people have been infected, and more than 35,000 have died.
-Dr. Fauci also warned on Monday that the coronavirus outbreaks in New Orleans and Detroit show signs that “they're going to take off,” and the same could happen in smaller cities. “There are a number of smaller cities that are sort of percolating along, couple hundred cases, the slope doesn't look like it's going up,” Fauci told ABC's “Good Morning America.” "What we’ve learned from painful experience with this outbreak is that it goes along almost on a straight line, then a little acceleration, acceleration, then it goes way up. ... We're going to have all of these little mini outbreaks throughout various cities in our country," he said. 
-Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has issued a stay-at-home order that will go into effect at 8 p.m. Monday. Residents should not leave their homes unless they are traveling for an essential job or for an essential need, such as food or medicine.

-Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he doesn't want Holland America's Zandaam, where four people died and more than 130 passengers and crew have symptoms, to dock in Fort Lauderdale. The cruise ship was not allowed to dock in South America after leaving Argentina on March 7. It passed through the Panama Canal Sunday night and is about three days from Florida. “We cannot afford to have people who are not even Floridians dumped into South Florida using up those valuable resources," DeSantis told Fox News.
-DeSantis also said Monday he will sign an executive order saying people in Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties must stay at home because of the high number of COVID-19 cases in South Florida.

-Anyone entering Vermont from another state must self-quarantine for 14 days, Gov. Phil Scott announced. He also said hotels, bed and breakfasts, and short-term rentals such as Airbnb and campgrounds have to suspend operations.

-New York is building a 68-bed field hospital in Central Park to accommodate additional coronavirus patients, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday.

-Arizona officials announced schools in the state will remain closed for the rest of the school year.

-Prince Charles, 71, the heir to the British throne who was quarantined in Scotland over the last seven days after testing positive for the coronavirus, has taken himself out of isolation, Buckingham Palace announced on Monday. “The prince is in good health,” an official at the palace said. “He is now operating under the current standard medical restrictions that apply nationwide.”

-After an aide tested positive for the conronavirus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his staff placed themselves in self-isolation until their own test results come back.

-The United Kingdom's Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to self-isolate after testing positive for COVID-19, and his chief adviser Dominic Cummings also is quarantined after developing symptoms.


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## Torch (Mar 30, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I was just joking, I used to drink it when I was in China and went to Tsingtao when I was in China just before the Olympics were held there.


Lol, actually a decent beer....


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> See how that works? Now it a person’s Dr. tells them to take it at a specific dosage, said person should do so. Not when Joe Smith on Aviation Forum says to.


What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> What do you mean? That I should NOT have passed the link to read what is said by Dr.s? I haven't said to anybody to take anything. Let's please take a deep breath, that's as far as I go in ministering to peoples' symptoms.



No, sorry, my post was quoting yours, but not directed at you. I should have been more specific.

It was a general statement related to a conversation that was part of this thread earlier.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No, sorry, my post was quoting yours, but not directed at you. I should have been more specific.
> 
> It was a general statement related to a conversation that was part of this thread earlier.


Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Gotchya. Thanks. Any news from Dr. Gnomey since Yesterday?



Haven’t heard from him.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 30, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 101,739, new 4,050, deaths 11,591, new 812, recovered 14,620 new 1,590, tests 477,359, new 23,329* * one region, the same of yesterday, reported less total tests of saturday (-2,001)
fatality rate 11.4%
mortality rate 192 per million
test rate 7.9 per thousand


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## rochie (Mar 30, 2020)

On BBC this morning.

Doctor "we dont have enough ppe, all we have are face masks, disposable aprons and gloves, this is not acceptable protection"

5 minutes later.

Another Doctor "we have enough ppe, all we really need are face masks, disposable aprons and gloves to protect us"

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## Gnomey (Mar 30, 2020)

Dinger said:


> Informative, very short, Youtube video from a UK doctor. He talks through some of the early statistics recently released by both the UK and EU healthcare authorities. The Video was posted on 30th March.



This video nicely summarises why we are worried. This coronavirus causes such a profound hypoxia (lack of oxygen) that the only way to manage severe cases is mechanical ventilation and the estimates are around 5-10% of cases will need it. Of these on average 50% will die. Now that’s around 2.5-5% of currently ~800,000 cases which is 20-40,000 people so far have died (which roughly correlates with stated figures by all the countries). Now bear in mind there’s probably double if not more actual cases around given lack of testing and many more who’ve died with undiagnosed disease so the numbers are likely higher for both.

Now the severe cases are difficult to predict but are likely male and over 50 (not everyone but likely most people here) however it can happen to anyone no matter their age it is indiscriminate in this regard. Age isn’t really a factor as severe disease can happen to anyone. Yes it’s more likely if you are older but not exclusive to them like the flu generally is. There is far less need for ventilation in flu vs COVID and that’s the issue. We do not have enough ventilators to manage if the expected numbers are seen hence the rush for them. We are already delaying ITU for a lot patients to maximise the resource as much as possible. If you have bad underlying lung function and other co-morbidities it will be managed as best we can in a ward/HDU setting as outcomes from ITU is this group are very poor (a similar decision would be made in severe flu cases in this group as well so this is nothing new). We have to make these choices all the time, we don’t like doing it but experience helps. ITU aims to get back to normal function with mechanical aids if this is unlikely despite all that ITU can offer them then they won’t go in the first place and will he kept comfortable. 

Take the UK as a whole, we have around 4000 ITU beds which can ventilate normally for a population of 70 million. Work out 10% of 70 million and you see the problem. The measures are to attempt to be able maximise the ITU resource which is imperative to maximise survival rates even the numbers are still going to be large and shocking for modern society.


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Except all the medical experts disagree with you. They repeatedly are saying this is nothing like the flu. They are saying it spreads easier, that since it is a novel virus we have no resistance to it (unlike the flu), and that the fatality rate is higher than flu.
> 
> People like Dr. Fauci (I get it, he is the big bad man now because he doesn’t bow down to others and repeat what they are supposed to say like a good lil minion), have stated that up 200,000 Americans will die from the virus this year if we do start taking this serious.
> 
> ...



This is reasonable.



TheMadPenguin said:


> AIUI anybody who gets the flu didn't have immunity to that strain.
> YES I think the Chinese Coronavirus AND "COVID-19" are overhyped, possibly for political ambitions; nevertheless this plague worries me on a few points:
> 1: Novelty: Influenza is all over the world. People talk about "flu season", but "flu season" in the world is like "Vodka Season" in Russia. (starts 1/1, runs to end of year). COVID-19 started in ONE point, and is world-wide now. In the next years, when Chinese Coronavirus (CCV) is not novel, it'll start in multiple places like Flu does, with slightly different strains here vs there. There will be vaccines for both, they will have varying effectiveness. This is a bit scary in its own right.
> 2: Communicability: CCV is much more efficient at propagating to new hosts than Influenza is. R-Nought for flu is like 1.3, for CCV is like 3. The effect of this is that in the time it takes influenza to go from 1 person to 14, CCV goes from 1 to 59,000. In the coming years, when there are multiple strains of CCV erupting from multiple locations, this could be quite damaging to nations and economies.
> ...


This is essentially what I posted in the sticky thread in announcements. It’s covers why we are worried by it as I’ve further detailed above.

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## N4521U (Mar 30, 2020)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers

I read a post "we should get our shit together here in Oz"!
I think we are doing pretty well, considering that Feckin cruise ship let 200 people off roaming the streets of Sydney!!!
Went in to the biggest hdwre store, Bunnings, they had marked the Entrance and Exit with arrows and tape to keep a narrow passage one way each way. So I did the right thing. Exiting a Bunnings Exec entered the Exit right thru to the "Unavailable" elevator. Gonna call them today and unload shit onnem!!!!


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## mikewint (Mar 30, 2020)

US coronavirus: Doctor says, ''We are slowly descending into chaos' - CNN

CNN)The latest projections on coronavirus in the US were so alarming, there was virtually no choice but to extend social distancing guidelines, two of the nation's top infectious disease experts said.
Federal guidelines originally scheduled to end this week have now been extended to April 30.
That means all Americans should avoid groups of 10 or more people, avoid discretionary travel, and consider canceling all social visits in homes. Older residents should stay home.
But even with continued social distancing, "I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 100,000 deaths," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It was patently obvious, looking at the data ... if we try to push back (on social distancing) prematurely, not only do we lose lives, but it probably would even hurt the economy," he sai


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## Vincenzo (Mar 30, 2020)

Social distancing effective is no group, you can only group with that living in your home,

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## cherry blossom (Mar 30, 2020)

As all you students of WW2 already know "The Blitzkrieg Legend" by Karl-Heinz Frieser has a short section on a map exercise by a General André-Gaston Prételat over May-June 1938 which suggested that the Germans could rapidly penetrate the Ardennes. The conclusion reached by the leaders of the French Army was that this result should be kept secret so that the troops would not be worried The Blitzkrieg Legend.

I remembered this whilst reading an article in the Telegraph about Exercise Cygnus from 2016 Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government which modelled Britain's response to a pandemic and revealed serious failings. The article includes "...the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed “too terrifying” to be revealed. Others involved cited “national security” concerns."


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## pbehn (Mar 30, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Social distancing effective is no group, you can only group with that living in your home,


This has just been expressed in mathematics by the CSO in UK. To reduce the number of infected people the only way is to ensure each infected person infects less than one other. The only way to do this is to reduce "social" contact of the mass of the population to almost zero because there are some like health workers, police and many in required jobs who cant avoid coming into contact with others.


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## Night Fighter Nut (Mar 30, 2020)

Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.


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## swampyankee (Mar 30, 2020)

Well, it's certainly not impossible that the Chinese authorities are lying. Gee, authoritarian regimes (and wannabes) lying. Such a surprise.

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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 30, 2020)

Night Fighter Nut said:


> Researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families.


Subtract the number of urns "filled and given to families" the same month last year (3 numbers for Jan, Feb, & March) for the city Wuhan, the province Hubei, and China, and you might have a good indicator to Wuhan/Hubei/China COVID-19 deaths.

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## pbehn (Mar 30, 2020)

cherry blossom said:


> As all you students of WW2 already know "The Blitzkrieg Legend" by Karl-Heinz Frieser has a short section on a map exercise by a General André-Gaston Prételat over May-June 1938 which suggested that the Germans could rapidly penetrate the Ardennes. The conclusion reached by the leaders of the French Army was that this result should be kept secret so that the troops would not be worried The Blitzkrieg Legend.
> 
> I remembered this whilst reading an article in the Telegraph about Exercise Cygnus from 2016 Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government which modelled Britain's response to a pandemic and revealed serious failings. The article includes "...the report detailing the findings of Exercise Cygnus have never seen the light of day. A senior former government source with direct involvement in the exercise said they were deemed “too terrifying” to be revealed. Others involved cited “national security” concerns."


It is perfectly understandable that such things have been kept secret. Today I had a member of the press that has reported that CV-19 tests are between 30 and 60% accurate AND has been told that an inaccurate test is more dangerous than no test DEMANDING to know when we will do "more tests" they don't say what tests and on whom they just want 60 million tests a day and if they don't get done the "press" want answers. They are as useful as fluffy kitten in a fire.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 30, 2020)

Night Fighter Nut said:


> Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.


Read several reports that have stated that the director of Wuhan Central Hospital has gone missing after his public statements regarding how the government was not taking the situation seriously and a number of journalists and doctors who were trying to put out actual numbers have also turned up missing.
Radio Free Asia has suggested that the death toll in China is roughly 20 times higher than the Government is admitting, based on sources from inside China that the government isn't aware of...yet.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 30, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Based on sources from inside China that the government isn't aware of...yet.


And God help them when they are discovered. 
RIP the valiant, who love the truth more than life. 
Communism will ever be your accuser, and will ever be your slayer. </political>


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## gumbyk (Mar 31, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> And God help them when they are discovered.
> RIP the valiant, who love the truth more than life.
> Communism will ever be your accuser, and will ever be your slayer. </political>


I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....

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## jetcal1 (Mar 31, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm sure we could name another political leader who just wishes he could do the same....


Rouhani? Perhaps Xi? Perhaps Corbyn?


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## N4521U (Mar 31, 2020)

God help NYC............................
If you believe,
otherwise..................... wise up you apples!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 31, 2020)

I have obviously opened the political can of worms. I accept the blame for that. Lets try and lay off the politics again.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 31, 2020)

Just an interesting bit of info: CBS news was reporting on the dire situation in New York but the images were of Italian hospitals.

I asked a couple friends who live in New York how bad the situation was at their hospitals and they said the're like ghost towns - no one around.

So what the hell?


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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2020)

Interesting video from the BBC - check out the graphs which align all countries to a common "start" date so you can see the variation in slopes:

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## Vincenzo (Mar 31, 2020)

Night Fighter Nut said:


> Read an article this morning on line from researchers in Wuhan. As I understand it, the Chinese government states that only 2500 people died in this area as a result from the virus and that there are no more new cases. However, that being published, these researchers checked the number of cremation urns being returned to families. There are three crematoriums in this area and they are running 24/7 with an estimated 500 a day from each one. It was reported that they had to bring in other operators from outside to handle the workload. It is currently estimated that there are approximately 42,000 urns that will be returned to families by the first week of April. Something to think about.



there is some reports that normal quarter crematory work is more of 50 thousands


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 31, 2020)

I dunno about this ... he might get mobbed for those wheels.

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## swampyankee (Mar 31, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> View attachment 575622
> 
> I dunno about this ... me might get mobbed for those wheels.



Where's the propeller?


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 31, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Where's the propeller?


Behind the radiator?


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## swampyankee (Mar 31, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Rouhani? Perhaps Xi? Perhaps Corbyn?



Netanyahu? Strache? Orban?

Historically, the far right and hyper-nationalists haven't exactly been more supportive of dissent than the communists.


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 31, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Historically, the far right and hyper-nationalists haven't exactly been more supportive of dissent than the communists.


I think we just got "political", by several measures.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 31, 2020)

Ok guys lets ALL knock off the political talk.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Where's the propeller?


No propeller, silly! It's a rocket.


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## mikewint (Mar 31, 2020)

I has finally found out how to solve the "empty store shelves" syndrome....Just ask the hoarders to relinquish....politely...that is


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## Vincenzo (Mar 31, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 105,792, new 4,053, deaths 12,428, new 837, recovered 15,729, new 1,109, tests 506,968, new 29,609
fatality rate 11.7%
mortality rate 206 per million
tests rate 8.4 per thousand


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## TheMadPenguin (Mar 31, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I has finally found out how to solve the "empty store shelves" syndrome....Just ask the hoarders to relinquish....politely...that is


"A polite word and a gun > A polite word alone" (Al Capone, "The Untouchables").


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## mikewint (Mar 31, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> gun


Gun? Gun? OH you mean the black POINTER he used. Just an "attention getter" and "focuser"


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## ThomasP (Mar 31, 2020)

Hey guys,

A range of interventions was tried in the US in 1918, including closure of schools and churches, banning of mass gatherings, mandated mask wearing, case isolation, and disinfection/hygiene measures.

The first attached graph shows the difference in expansion rates of infection for Philadelphia and St. Louis. US epidemiologists use this as a classic example of why early action is so important.

It should be noted that Philadelphia leaders downplayed the seriousness of the situation. The city council delayed taking active measures from their first reported cases on 17 September until 3 October. The leaders in St. Louis took the situation seriously and started active measures on 7 October, only 2 days after their first reported cases. Note the difference in the curves.





Philadelphia's sharp drop in fatalities (and hence the associated infection rates) is due to the realization by the masses in Philadelphia that the situation was serious, the resulting mass fear drove them to self isolation and social distancing. By then, however, the health system was totally overwhelmed. The peak for the Philadelphia curve is equal to about 12,000 deaths after only 30 days, as opposed to about 1,700 total deaths for St. Louis through the entire 1918-year. The greater metro area populations were about the same for both cities. The St. Louis health system was seriously taxed but did not become overwhelmed.


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## ThomasP (Mar 31, 2020)

Hey GrauGeist,

re your post#1143:"I asked a couple friends who live in New York how bad the situation was at their hospitals and they said the're like ghost towns - no one around. So what the Hell?"

For the last few years I have been working as a small package/medical courier in-between contract manufacturing jobs. It keeps me busy and I find I quite like the job.

Earlier today I picked up a prescription run at a local major hospital, and there were very few people evident in the common areas.

I live in the Twin-Cities metropolitan area in Minnesota and we have a relatively low number of cases so far. The non-ICU/CCU/Isolation areas are not too busy yet, the ER less so than usual as the hospital/clinic system is diverting non-COVID-19 cases to other hospitals and clinics when possible. The normal ER area has been moved to a less accessible area deeper into the hospital in order to limit transient exposure. Visitors are discouraged, and hospital personnel are not supposed to linger at the hospital in order to limit their possible exposure to COVID-19.

It was not quite a ghost town, but I was surprised at how few people I saw during my visit. It is usually a fairly busy time of day.

Minnesota report, March 31
cases 629, recovered 288, hospitalized 112, deaths 12, tested 19,780
fatality rate 1.9%
mortality rate ? per million (Hey Vincenzo, how are you calculating this?)
tests rate 3.5 per thousand
(Note that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Minnesota occurred March 6)

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## MIflyer (Apr 1, 2020)

I find this propaganda campaign against the hydroxycocquinn drug to be very disturbing. My brother is a pharmacist and he tells me it has been used as both a treatment and a preventative since 1945. But the Red Chinese and some of the MSM are attacking it. One person died from it they say, but they had taken the Phosphate version of the drug used to clan fishtanks, which is like getting sulfur and sulfuric acid confused. Doctors in NYC are taking it now to help prevent them getting the disease. The only reason to attack a useful treatment that I can think of is to make things worse.

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## Marcel (Apr 1, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> I find this propaganda campaign against the hydroxycocquinn drug to be very disturbing. My brother is a pharmacist and he tells me it has been used as both a treatment and a preventative since 1945. But the Red Chinese and some of the MSM are attacking it. One person died from it they say, but they had taken the Phosphate version of the drug used to clan fishtanks, which is like getting sulfur and sulfuric acid confused. Doctors in NYC are taking it now to help prevent them getting the disease. The only reason to attack a useful treatment that I can think of is to make things worse.


Or plain ignorance. There have been more doubtful scientific researches concerning covid-19 the last few months. Also some results have been compromised in the translation from Chinese to English.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 1, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> I find this propaganda campaign against the hydroxycocquinn drug to be very disturbing. My brother is a pharmacist and he tells me it has been used as both a treatment and a preventative since 1945. But the Red Chinese and some of the MSM are attacking it. One person died from it they say, but they had taken the Phosphate version of the drug used to clan fishtanks, which is like getting sulfur and sulfuric acid confused. Doctors in NYC are taking it now to help prevent them getting the disease. The only reason to attack a useful treatment that I can think of is to make things worse.



If you are referring to the conversation here, it was about non medical professionals telling people to simply take it. I have taken it before as an anti malaria drug, and am very aware of the side effects. I decided to take my chances with malaria because of them. It should only be taken under a doctors orders, and under their dosage. That was the point of the convo here.

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## MIflyer (Apr 1, 2020)

No, I was not aware of the conversation here. Of course it should be only taken under the supervision of a doctor and usually is accompanied by an antibiotic as well. I believe that probably was the same drug an officer I served with refused to take when he had a TDY to Xichang.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 1, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> No, I was not aware of the conversation here. Of course it should be only taken under the supervision of a doctor and usually is accompanied by an antibiotic as well. I believe that probably was the same drug an officer I served with refused to take when he had a TDY to Xichang.



I took it in Iraq and quit because of the side effects. So did much of my unit.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 1, 2020)

in Italy is used, or was in use the 1st March the clorochina or the idrossiclorochina, in the most severe Remdesivir plus the same or the Lopinavir/ritonavir, medicines name in italian

per million, i just take deaths and divide per population, in my case ISTAT, national statistic office, estimated for the 1st January 2020,

a journalistic investigation, supported from many Mayors, for the Bergamo province claim around 4,500/5,000 deaths for COVID-19 versus the ~2050 official

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 110,574, new 4,782, deaths 13,155, new 727, recovered 16,847, new 1,118, tests 541,423, new 34,455
fatality rate 11,9%
mortality rate 218 per million
test rate 9 per thousand


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## gumbyk (Apr 1, 2020)

Some wise words of advice...

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## mikewint (Apr 1, 2020)

During early Vietnam (1963) I was issued quinine for malaria, about 300mg tablets as I recall. It never worked very well so next we received Chloroquine and Primaquine tablets which worked much better, at least for a while. Next we began hearing that sulfa drugs would work for the chloroquine resistant strains. We began treating with sufadoxine and pyrimethamine. Adverse reactions were rare but tended to be serious Friends who stayed in after I left in 1968 and Viet-vets I've talked to stated that about 1970 or so they were given Mefloquine which had the advantage of only being taken once a week, however, they like Chris mentioned some nasty neuropsychiatric effects. As such many troops simply refused or faked taking the drug.
Those small bottles of mosquito repellent had a smell which carried several meters in the jungle so were not used where they were most needed. Mosquito nets draped around your boonie hats kept the critter off your face but interfered with vision so mostly not used.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 1, 2020)

Penguins only practice Social Distancing from Leopard Seals and sharks.
Otherwise ... well... we're birdbrains, OK?

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## Tieleader (Apr 1, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Some wise words of advice...



Who says learning can't be fun?
There isn't anyone on the planet that can swear as well as Jackson's grandmaster level ability.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 1, 2020)

Tieleader said:


> Who says learning can't be fun?
> There isn't anyone on the planet that can swear as well as Jackson's grandmaster level ability.


Don't know any sailors do you?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Don't know any sailors do you?


Or mechanics

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## ThomasP (Apr 1, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 1
cases 689, recovered 342, hospitalized 122, deaths 17, tested 21,191
fatality rate 2.5%
mortality rate 3 per million
tests rate 3.7 per thousand
(Note that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Minnesota occurred March 6. "Social Distancing" order with all schools, bars, and restaurants closed began March 18. "Shelter In Place" order with all "non-essential" business and services closed began midnight of March 27.)


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## MiTasol (Apr 2, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I has finally found out how to solve the "empty store shelves" syndrome....Just ask the hoarders to relinquish....politely...that is



There are stories here now that the locusts are trying to return toilet paper for refunds but being told get lost.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2020)

Most stores here in town have implemented a no return policy for "bulk item purchases" and surprisingly enough, Wal-Mart was quick to limit bulk water and TP purchases.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 2, 2020)

Tieleader said:


> There isn't anyone on the planet that can swear as well as Jackson's grandmaster level ability.





jetcal1 said:


> Don't know any sailors do you?





GrauGeist said:


> Or mechanics


Or night freight pilots

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## swampyankee (Apr 2, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Or mechanics



Or middle schoolers

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## nsmekanik (Apr 2, 2020)

*****​
EDIT: THIS DID NOT COME FROM JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY. IT IS A FAKE FACEBOOK, SOCIAL MEDIA, AND EMAIL CHAIN MAIL. 

MUCH OF THE INFO IS UNVERIFIED OR FALSE.

****​*

Copy and past from an email sent to me by my Mom



*Subject:* FW: Important info from Johns Hopkins *Date:* 2020-03-31 20:03 *From:To:* >





Hope this come through okay.


*Sent:* Tuesday, March 31, 2020 2:02 PM
*Subject:* Fwd: Important info from Johns Hopkins



​ 
*This is a good explanation of what Covid 19 is and is not and how to deal with it. Never saw this in other write ups .* 

*The following is from Irene Ken, physician, whose daughter is an Asst. Prof in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University.*

_ * The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code (mutation) and converts them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies_.
_ * The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam cuts the fat (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).
By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is good to use water above 77 degrees F for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% dissolves fat, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. Since the virus is not a living organism like bacteria, antibodies cannot kill what is not alive._
_* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only_:
-3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic). 

But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
_* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial environments such as air conditioning in houses and cars. 
They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. But be careful because it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, work. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE SERVES as it is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better. 
* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there._​ JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL

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## buffnut453 (Apr 2, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> Copy and past from an email sent to me by my Mom
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm unsure of the provenance of that information. My mother-in-law emailed it to me a few days ago with exactly the same introduction, which suggests (to me) that it's spam and can't be trusted.

The whole UV thing has been debunked (only a certain type of UV can be used, and it's lethal to humans). The loiter times on various surfaces also do not tally with other data I've seen from reputable sources. 

Bottom line...if you can't confirm the source, don't trust it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 2, 2020)

It is fake. John Hopkins has announced that this did not come from them, and that it unreliable. It is a prime example of fake social media Facebook chain mails.

Did Johns Hopkins Publish This 'Excellent Summary' of COVID-19 Advice?

Please stop forwarding fake information.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 2, 2020)

Fact checking is free, and usually only takes a few. Don’t believe everything you read or see on the internet.


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## nsmekanik (Apr 2, 2020)

That's why I think it's good to post such things I think, I also found the times to be a bit suspiciously contradictory. It benefits all of us if those in the know can do a little fact checking as all though Mom is a retired nurse I suspect she is no less vulnerable to misinformation then most people in this and I certainly don't want her to become exposed due to being misinformed.
There are just to many mental deficients out and about with access to toys they are not mature enough to play with, such as internet connections and key boards. 
I will pass this on to her, thanks.

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## nsmekanik (Apr 2, 2020)

Just to add I'm not at home on my computer and I don't have much time to do much fact checking as I'm working overtime and trying to get some domestic responsibilities fulfilled so my apologies for any misunderstanding.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 2, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> Just to add I'm not at home on my computer and I don't have much time to do much fact checking as I'm working overtime and trying to get some domestic responsibilities fulfilled so my apologies for any misunderstanding.



No worries...

Take care of yourself and family.

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## swampyankee (Apr 2, 2020)

A couple of errors that a person who remembers high school biology (I don't) should be able to catch. 

Neither DNA nor RNA are proteins.
Viruses usually don't have a lipid coat (some do; see Molecular Expressions Cell Biology: Virus Structure), but they will usually have a protein coat, and all that have a lipid coat will have it on top of a protein coat.
As an aside, a noroviruses, among other viruses, aren't degraded by alcohol. Soap tends to be a better option, as vigorous hand washing will physically remove micro-organisms from the skin.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 2, 2020)

Perhaps this is information this group does not need: Wild Turky 151 whiskey is 75% alcohol. It kills conversations, marriages, gunnery skills, and maybe also viruses and other things.
(I've been informed: Wild Turkey max strength is 101; bacardi rum is gets to 151. I consider this evidence that I don't drink!)

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## Vincenzo (Apr 2, 2020)

Italy report 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 115,242, new 4,668, deaths 13,915, new 760, recovered 18,278, new 1,431, tests 581,232, new 39,809
fatality rate 12.1%
mortality rate 231 per million
test rate 9.6 per thousand

Worldwide go over 1 million cases, 50 thousands deaths and 210 thousands recovered


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## Glider (Apr 2, 2020)

I have just come home to a letter from the NHS warning me that with my back history I have been identified as being at very high risk should I catch the virus. As a result I am grounded for 12 weeks under strict conditions no face to face at all with anyone apart from my wife. No leaving the house, only medical personnel can see me, must work at home, you get the picture. 

The somewhat ironic thing is that physically I am probably better now than at any time over the last 10 - 15 years. Down 55 pounds, blood pressure well within bounds and blood sugar readings below the level of that which define diabetes. 

It's a nasty virus this. I used to be a counsellor in a Inner City London hospital where my clients were the doctors, nurses and other front line medical personnel. Talking to my ex colleagues over the weekend, the pressure they are under supporting their clients is almost frightening.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 2, 2020)

Glider said:


> I have just come home to a letter from the NHS warning me I am grounded for 12 weeks under strict conditions, you get the picture.
> 
> The somewhat ironic thing is that physically I am probably better now than at any time over the last 10 - 15 years. Down 55 pounds, blood pressure well within bounds and blood sugar readings below the level of that which define diabetes.
> 
> It's a nasty virus this. I used to be a counsellor in a Inner City London hospital where my clients were the doctors, nurses and other front line medical personnel. Talking to my ex colleagues over the weekend, the pressure they are under supporting their clients is almost frightening.



This could drive you to drink, but you're not allowed to drive!
Stay well, videochat with your councelees. They may need some gratis support such as you've given; patients and their families are likely also in need.


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## mikewint (Apr 2, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Wild Turky 151 whiskey is 75% alcohol.


Everclear is 190 proof or 95% ethanol why fiddle with the piddly stuff. Now if you really want to go for the GUSTO....there is 200 proof absolute alcohol....
SKAL....PROOST....Na zdrowie


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 2, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Everclear is 190 proof or 95% ethanol why fiddle with the piddly stuff. Now if you really want to go for the GUSTO....there is 200 proof absolute alcohol....
> SKAL....PROOST....Na zdrowie
> 
> View attachment 575870


Danger Will Robinson!
Ingesting anything like Everclear 190 proof or pure ethanol can tempt you to shoot at revenuers, and miss!

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## mikewint (Apr 2, 2020)

ArcGIS Dashboards
World wide Corona-19 cases are over 1 million yup 1,011,490 as of 4/2. 238,820 in the USofA


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 2, 2020)

mikewint said:


> ArcGIS Dashboards
> World wide Corona-19 cases are over 1 million yup 1,011,490 as of 4/2. 238,820 in the USofA



Some perspective (which I lack rather frequently) 1 million infections is 1/7800 of the world population, and 1/331 (.03%) of the US population (not including penguins, who don't matter).
US deaths so far is less than deaths from "regular flu" over the same time period. (rough guesstimate is 40,000 dead of "regular flu" since 1 Oct 2019 vs 5850 deaths from CCV)
I wonder what would happen if we responded to "regular flu" this way.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 2, 2020)

40,000 are statistical deaths or actually tested for seasonal flu that die?
in Italy the last season 2018/9, we get 205 deaths tested positive to flu


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## pbehn (Apr 2, 2020)

Having listened to the UK government advisors today trying to cope with the idiots in the press creche I conclude that there are almost no "facts" in this at the moment, there is a lot of information and even more statistics, but, for instance no woman has yet carried a baby full term, start to finish in a CV-19 environment. There is all sorts of "stuff" like that.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 2, 2020)

Someone should explain to them that female humans need 9 months...


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## pbehn (Apr 2, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Someone should explain to them that female humans need 9 months...


Well we all know that I hope but anyone who claims any treatment vaccine or even just stats about the effects is ignoring that simple "thing". Thalidomide only affected the embryo in a very specific time in gestation, and while so far no evidence of transmission across the placenta exists there is very little actual evidence to go on outside of China.


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## Staffeln Kommandant (Apr 2, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> The 2% is a low estimate, as its hard to get a figure while the pandemic is in progress, as you don't know exactly how many people have it: Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer
> 
> Mortality rate for influenza is less than 1%, also something complicated by other respiratory issues. But, yes, this virus does seem to disproportionately affect older people. Doesn't help to say that 'it only affects old people, so why should I worry?'



Looks like about 4.5%.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 2, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> 40,000 are statistical deaths or actually tested for seasonal flu that die?
> in Italy the last season 2018/9, we get 205 deaths tested positive to flu


CDC said 20k - 60k deaths, I took 40k as an "about".


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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Perhaps this is information this group does not need: Wild Turky 151 whiskey is 75% alcohol. It kills conversations, marriages, gunnery skills, and maybe also viruses and other things.


Wild Turkey *101 *is 50.5% alcohol by volume.
Bacardi *151* was 75.5% alcohol by volume.

And Wild Turkey is a Kentucky Bourbon.

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## ThomasP (Apr 3, 2020)

Hey TheMadPenguin,

For the normal influenza season, ~40,000 deaths (averaged estimated) out of ~46,000,000 infected (averaged estimate) results in only .09% fatality rate (rounded up). Note that this is not slightly less than 1% at .9%, but slightly less than 1/10 of 1%. If the fatality rate was 1% the number of deaths for the the same ~46,000,000 infected would be 460,000, not 40,000.

(Hey Vincenzo, see: "Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates" for the US flu season estimates)

This is one reason why COVID-19 is rather alarming. If the US ends up with a similar number of people (ie ~46,000,000) infected by COVID-19, using the current US fatality rate of ~2.4%, there will be ~1,112,000 deaths. If the US fatality rate eventually equals that of Italy at 12.1%, the total number of dead will be ~5,566,000. If the current measures being taken in the US do not get a handle on the spread of COVID-19, the infection rate and consequent number of deaths will be even higher.

Minnesota report, April 2
cases 742, recovered 373, hospitalized 138, deaths 18, tested 22,394*
fatality rate 2.4%
mortality rate 3.2 per million
tests rate 3.9 per thousand
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
(Note that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Minnesota occurred March 6. "Social Distancing" order with all schools, bars, and restaurants closed began March 18. "Shelter In Place" order with all "non-essential" business and services closed began midnight of March 27.)

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## at6 (Apr 3, 2020)

Statistics are almost meaningless unless you happen to in the diseased or deceased category. I'm going to take all of the precautions and not worry about it. As long as my supply of Canadian Mist holds out I'm good.

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## wuzak (Apr 3, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Some perspective (which I lack rather frequently) 1 million infections is 1/7800 of the world population, and 1/331 (.03%) of the US population (not including penguins, who don't matter).
> US deaths so far is less than deaths from "regular flu" over the same time period. (rough guesstimate is 40,000 dead of "regular flu" since 1 Oct 2019 vs 5850 deaths from CCV)
> I wonder what would happen if we responded to "regular flu" this way.



For perspective, the number of Covid 19 deaths in the US quadrupled in one week.

Let's say that rate is slowed by social distancing measures to doubling in a week.
Currently the number of deaths in the US is ~6,000.
1 week: ~12,000
2 weeks: ~24,000
3 weeks: ~48,000
4 weeks: ~96,000

Also note that the rate of fatalities per confirmed cases has changed - for a while it was less than 1%, which was of comfort to many, but now it stands at 2.5%. So you have the double effect of cases increasing and the fatality rate increasing.


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## Sid327 (Apr 3, 2020)

Hopefully some useful information.....


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## buffnut453 (Apr 3, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Some perspective (which I lack rather frequently) 1 million infections is 1/7800 of the world population, and 1/331 (.03%) of the US population (not including penguins, who don't matter).
> US deaths so far is less than deaths from "regular flu" over the same time period. (rough guesstimate is 40,000 dead of "regular flu" since 1 Oct 2019 vs 5850 deaths from CCV)
> I wonder what would happen if we responded to "regular flu" this way.



That's certainly one perspective. Here's another from a doctor in NYC. Some key take-aways:

- On average, the hospital makes one crash-cart call (due to cardiac arrest) every week. This doctor heard 9 crash-cart calls in one 12-hour shift (and all 9 patients died).

- The hospital has beds for 283 patients but currently is treating in excess of 500.

- The hospital has been given double the number of ventilators that it originally had - but they are already being fully utilised and they need more.

- "The most anxiety I have is around ventilator allocation. Seeing people die is not the issue. We're trained to deal with death. Nor is it the volume of people dying. The issue is giving up on people we wouldn't normally give up on."

- A patient was brought in from an old people's home, already on a ventilator. All the doctor could see before her was the ventilator - not the patient. "When he came in we were so desperate for vents, all I wanted to do was get the ventilator off him. I wanted to get that vent off him to allow it to go to someone else."

- Doctors are playing God.

And all of the above are AFTER social distancing and a city-wide lockdown were put in place. You ask what it would be like if we treated COVID-19 just like the flu? I think we'd be in a world of hurt.

The total numbers you cite are not showing the whole picture, and your "same time period" is nonsense. Flu season in the US lasts from late-fall thru the spring, which is 4-5 months. The COVID-19 cases in the US have happened in THREE WEEKS! It's a tsunami...ontop of the normal cases our healthcare professionals have to deal with.

I don't know how many times people have to say this....COVID-19 IS NOT THE FLU. It's far more infectious, and it's overloading our healthcare services. That's the key problem here.


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## Glider (Apr 3, 2020)

I am sure most of you would have seen the conversion in the UK of the O2 arena into a 4,000 bed hospital which has started taking patients after nine days since the start of the build. What I have for some reason just realised, is that it isn't just a 4,000 bed hospital, it's a 4000 bed intensive care hospital. Every bed has its own Oxygen, ventilator, ECG, and other equipment, even blanket warmers, and I have to say I find that seriously impressive.
When you see how desperate some hospitals are around the world for Ventilators and other often basic PPE equipment, even in the most advanced countries, it shows that when push comes to shove the UK can still get things done.

One word about the danger of comparing this to anything else. As I understand it some people are saying that ordinary flu kills more people than this virus. Just remember that the USA will be lucky, very lucky to get away with less than 150,000 deaths and most experts are giving numbers well in excess of 200,000 for the USA alone. A highly transmittable virus with no cure, no treatment and a vaccine that is at best 12 months away with no guarantee that it will be effective for everyone, or will be without side effects.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2020)

And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
1) They're expensive.
2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!

Just like military budgets in "peace" time.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 3, 2020)

The second positive in my town die, so we have 100% of fatality rate
i've meet this man, around 80 years old, the 10th March, this is the 24th day so i suppose that if take from him i'm symptomless or i don't get it


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## herman1rg (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
> 1) They're expensive.
> 2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
> 3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!
> ...


And I would expect it doesn't get votes.........................


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## Marcel (Apr 3, 2020)

Can someone please reinstall 2020? It has a virus...

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## Marcel (Apr 3, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> The second positive in my town die, so we have 100% of fatality rate
> i've meet this man, around 80 years old, the 10th March, this is the 24th day so i suppose that if take from him i'm symptomless or i don't get it


Condolences. But it seems hopeful for you that you don’t show symptoms yet. Stay healthy 

 Vincenzo


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2020)



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## buffnut453 (Apr 3, 2020)

Well, COVID has hit 3 of my work colleagues, one of whom is now on a ventilator. Hoping and praying that individual is one of the fortunate ones to pull through.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, COVID has hit 3 of my work colleagues, one of whom is now on a ventilator. Hoping and praying that individual is one of the fortunate ones to pull through.



Sorry to hear this. Stay safe my friend.


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## wuzak (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And why doesn't the US have the equipment and testing abilities this thing calls for?
> 1) They're expensive.
> 2) There's been no demonstrated need, til now.
> 3) THERE'S NOT ENOUGH PROFIT IN IT!
> ...



Just heard that the US military will delivering 200,000 masks to NYC. To a warehouse - belonging to a commercial distributor. Who is free to sell to anyone they like, including foreign countries.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 3, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sorry to hear this. Stay safe my friend.



Yeah...me too!  

One of those infected sits about 10 feet from my desk. Luckily, I haven't been in the office since 13 March so I'm in the clear...for now.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 3, 2020)

Here we go....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/3m-n95-masks-1.5520326


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## Airframes (Apr 3, 2020)

I've noticed that a particularly well known on-line source of goods and gadgets seems to be getting on the 'band wagon' with face masks.
Those types normally found in hardware stores for a couple of Pounds, are offered for many times that amount - bl**dy bandits !


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2020)

Like it says in Sid's video, human brains are trained to think linearly; pandemics spread exponentially. That's kind of hard for those of us (and ALL of the media) in the non-STEM population to wrap our heads around.

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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Like it says in Sid's video, human brains are trained to think linearly; pandemics spread exponentially. That's kind of hard for those of us (and ALL of the media) in the non-STEM population to wrap our heads around.


 It all depends on the "R" number. R=re infection rate. If one person infects less than 1 person on average then the infection slowly goes away. If 1 person infects 1 other it remains the same but if on average he infects two or more it mushrooms massively.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2020)

*w*


pbehn said:


> if on average he infects two or more it mushrooms massively.


The very nature of this virus makes the "two or more" rate practically a given in any but the most disciplined, well equipped, and *well led* populations.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> and *well led* populations.



Nailed it...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2020)



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## Vincenzo (Apr 3, 2020)

Italian report, 5 p.m. (CEST), today
cases 119,827, new 4,585, deaths 14,681, new 766, recovered 19,758, new 1,480, tests 619,849, new 38,617
fatality rate 12.3%
mortality rate 243 per million
test rate 10.3 per thousand
today test rate 640 per million


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## mikewint (Apr 3, 2020)

Chris, it's already been made:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2020)

What a terrible show. I tried watching it when it came out. Didn’t make it through the 1st episode.


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## Glider (Apr 3, 2020)

If this story is only partly true, then its still an epic failure
The vacant Comfort hospital ship is a symbol of our coronavirus failure


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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

Glider said:


> If this story is only partly true, then its still an epic failure
> The vacant Comfort hospital ship is a symbol of our coronavirus failure


As I understood it the ship was sent to help take cases that weren't CV related, its logical to make sure a ship is not infected with a virus.


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## Glider (Apr 3, 2020)

pbehn said:


> As I understood it the ship was sent to help take cases that weren't CV related, its logical to make sure a ship is not infected with a virus.


True but in the whole of the city they can only find 15-20 patients?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 3, 2020)

Hell of a hit-piece.

Basically an op-ed with no investigative work to see _WHY_ the ship does not have Covid cases...


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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Hell of a hit-piece.
> 
> Basically an op-ed with no investigative work to see _WHY_ the ship does not have Covid cases...


Funny that, because even sat in front of my UK television I have heard someone explaining that its function was NOT to deal with CV=19 but everything else, it is a general hospital ship with operating theatres etc, that seemed perfectly logical to me.

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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

Glider said:


> True but in the whole of the city they can only find 15-20 patients?


They may have been 20 people admitted for surgery, I assume all press to be as useless as ours in UK.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2020)

"Doctor, can you *prove* that *none* of the patients you have referred to this ship for non-Covid treatment have ever been at any time in the presence of a non-symptomatic Covid carrier?"


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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Doctor, can you *prove* that *none* of the patients you have referred to this ship for non-Covid treatment have ever been at any time in the presence of a non-symptomatic Covid carrier?"


Aye, there is the rub. As they say, the best laid plans of mice and men, it quickly goes from a "case" in one hospital to being endemic and everywhere.


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## pbehn (Apr 3, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Doctor, can you *prove* that *none* of the patients you have referred to this ship for non-Covid treatment have ever been at any time in the presence of a non-symptomatic Covid carrier?"


We have he same issue in UK with testing labs. There are many labs who have "tests" but even from my layman's knowledge they are not suitable. Their labs and procedures are there supposedly testing a swab or sample of blood but not isolated from the technician doing the test. It only takes one technician to have the virus and the whole system is compromised.


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## Gnomey (Apr 3, 2020)

There’s a lot of asymptomatic infection happening. We’ve had quite a few completely asymptomatic patients who’ve had CAT scans and then have been found to be COVID (they are better at diagnosing it that the swabs).

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## jetcal1 (Apr 3, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Or mechanics


I was both.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 3, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Fact checking is free, and usually only takes a few. Don’t believe everything you read or see on the internet.



I loved that commercial. We had a manager that was a chronic liar where I was working at the time. We'd be in a meeting and I would say in response to some of his "more choice comments" - I heard it on the internet........he never got it.

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## Marcel (Apr 3, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> There’s a lot of asymptomatic infection happening. We’ve had quite a few completely asymptomatic patients who’ve had CAT scans and then have been found to be COVID (they are better at diagnosing it that the swabs).


Hugh, is it true that some patients turn out negative with the RT-PCR and than appear positive with the scan? I heard this from friends at the Rotterdam hospital. Not sure what the story I’d behind that. Are these really Corona patients? I would think the PCR would be more reliable.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 4, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> I was both.


All three here.

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## ThomasP (Apr 4, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 3
cases 789, recovered 410, hospitalized 156, deaths 22, tested 24,227*
fatality rate 2.8%
mortality rate 3.9 per million
tests rate 4.2 per thousand*
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## Marcel (Apr 4, 2020)

According to official count, about 700 people in The Netherlands died last week of Corona. But the total amount of deaths last week is around 1400 higher then the same week in other years. So that’s with the official number is worth.

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## Night Fighter Nut (Apr 4, 2020)

Something I came across in my readings. What do you guys think?

"at the2 University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, scientists say they may have found one already. What’s more, is that their findings show their supposed treatment can be rolled out rapidly to reduce the spread of the virus. The delivery system is not one injection, but in a fingertip-sized patch containing 400 “microneedles” (via NY Post):

The researchers announced their findings Thursday and believe the vaccine could be rolled out quickly enough to “significantly impact the spread of disease,” according to their study published in EBioMedicine.

The vaccine would be delivered on a small, fingertip-sized patch. When tested on mice, the vaccine produced enough antibodies believed to successfully counteract the virus.

[…]

“These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus,” read a statement from co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, M.D., associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine.

“We knew exactly where to fight this new virus.”

[…]

Researchers said they sided with using a patch, rather than a traditional needle, to deliver the spike protein to the skin, which elicits the strongest immune reaction.

The patch contains 400 tiny “microneedles” made of sugar and protein pieces. It would be applied like a Band-Aid with the needles dissolving into the skin.

The vaccine would be “highly scalable” for widespread use, the researchers said in a news release."

Waiting to see the results.


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## Glider (Apr 4, 2020)

I always remember the wise words of advice.

'If something looks too good to be true, it normally is'

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## swampyankee (Apr 4, 2020)

Reportedly, there's a conspiracy theory thst Covd-19 is being spread by 5G networks. 

How goddamn stupid can people be? The CT mob claims to have "secret knowledge"; many of them only show their special and deep stupidly.


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## Marcel (Apr 4, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Reportedly, there's a conspiracy theory thst Covd-19 is being spread by 5G networks.
> 
> How goddamn stupid can people be? The CT mob claims to have "secret knowledge"; many of them only show their special and deep stupidly.


Yeah, posted that earlier in the thread.


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## rochie (Apr 4, 2020)

708 died in th UK in 24 hours upto 17.00 hrs yesterday, numbers of deaths are increasing each day !
4313 deaths in total in the UK

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

Starting to get an elevated temperature and feeling very under the weather. No cough as of yet. I am isolating from my wife and children to be on the safe side. We’ll see.


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## tomo pauk (Apr 4, 2020)

Oh, boy. Let's hope for the best.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

My entire body aches, elevated temperature and the chills. They still won’t test though because I have not reached the magical 100.4 temp.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

The weird thing is that I have been working from home, and have not been out in 24 days. Neither has my family.


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## mikewint (Apr 4, 2020)

Chris, my MOST sincere hope and prayers to you that you are just getting a cold/flu ect.


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 4, 2020)

Chris - hoping the best for you and your family!


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## Vincenzo (Apr 4, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST), today
cases 124,632, new 4,805, deaths 15,362, new 681, recovered 20,996, new 1,238, tests 657,224, new 37375
on the recovered that counted are only hospital dismissed, the positives that recovered in house are not counted or are not counted in all the region in Lombardy the regional press conference give around 26k recovered ~half hospital dismissed and ~half without hospital passage
fatality rate 12.3%
mortality rate 255 per million
test rate 10.9 per thousand
test rate today 620 per million


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## Vincenzo (Apr 4, 2020)

Chris in italian is use tell, in bocca al lupo
I Hope will go all right for you and your family


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## Crimea_River (Apr 4, 2020)

All the best Chris.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 4, 2020)

Hi Cris i very much hope for the best. Now although you must think the worst ( i would) , it still can be a more common bug. Allergie, flu whatever. Certainly after 24 days. Keep strong. Keep washing those hands.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

I just want to get tested, so my family can know. But this ass backwards place still is not taking testing seriously.


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## at6 (Apr 4, 2020)

They don't want to test any of us. It's just another way to get rid of us "OLD" people.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

at6 said:


> They don't want to test any of us. It's just another way to get rid of us "OLD" people.



I’m not old, I’m turning 40...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

Temp now a 100.6. I will call and see if they will test now. None of the shortness of breath or cough yet. Just fever, headache, body aches and chills. I really just need to know because of the family. Its not like they will give me anything regardless.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The weird thing is that I have been working from home, and have not been out in 24 days. Neither has my family.



Chris,

There are some weird bugs doing the rounds at present, some of which are scarily like COVID. One of my work colleagues had been fine until a few days ago, then started feeling really rough. Said his chest felt like an elephant was standing on it, and so painful that it kept him awake at night. He also had a slight fever. Managed to get tested which came back negative. 
I hope your current affliction is something similar to my colleague. You and your family are in our thoughts and prayers. 

Mark

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## Marcel (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Starting to get an elevated temperature and feeling very under the weather. No cough as of yet. I am isolating from my wife and children to be on the safe side. We’ll see.


Stay safe Chris.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Chris,
> 
> There are some weird bugs doing the rounds at present, some of which are scarily like COVID. One of my work colleagues had been fine until a few days ago, then started feeling really rough. Said his chest felt like an elephant was standing on it, and so painful that it kept him awake at night. He also had a slight fever. Managed to get tested which came back negative.
> I hope your current affliction is something similar to my colleague. You and your family are in our thoughts and prayers.
> ...



Yeah, I’m not too crazily worried, I just want to know for the family. Unless I get severe symptoms, I will treat this like a bad bug. Stay away from my family, drink fluids and take over the counter.

Fever still rising though.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

I just talked to the Dr. Due to lack of coronavirus tests in our area I will not be tested.

Self isolate for 7 to 14 days.

If I get breathing problems call back again.


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## Elmas (Apr 4, 2020)

Stay safe Chris!
Antonello


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I just talked to the Dr. Due to lack of coronavirus tests in our area I will not be tested.
> 
> Self isolate for 7 to 14 days.
> 
> If I get breathing problems call back again.



Stay safe - feel better!


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## mikewint (Apr 4, 2020)

Chris it's not close and they do charge but it is legit and results come in 24 hours -
*BRANSON, MO. -- *There is now another option for COVID-19 testing in the Ozarks, as a local clinic is offering a test with a one-day turn around.






Ozark Valley Medical Clinic is offering the tests at their clinics in Branson and Ozark.

On April 2, the clinic in Branson set-up a testing tent outside of their clinic on West 76 County Boulevard. At first, many people were asking about the legitimacy of the site.

"I said 'Honey, look at that COVID 19 tent over there, it doesn't even look legit,'" Clark Timberlake said. "That sure looks not right."

However, the health department assures the public that the coronavirus testing is on the up-and-up.

"We do things by the book. That's just how you do things. We care and our history shows we care," Ozark Valley Medical Clinic Owner Dr. Trisha Derges said.

Dr. Derges learned that the clinic needed a city permit to test out of the tent. So, they have removed the tent. Patients now just pull up to the clinic, call the office, and the doctor comes curbside. Dr. Derges says the doctors *won't deny patients who are showing any symptoms the testing.*


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## Gnomey (Apr 4, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Hugh, is it true that some patients turn out negative with the RT-PCR and than appear positive with the scan? I heard this from friends at the Rotterdam hospital. Not sure what the story I’d behind that. Are these really Corona patients? I would think the PCR would be more reliable.


The swab is only about 75% sensitive. There’s been cases that have been treated as corona that have had 3 negative swabs before a positive one (but still been treated as corona). CAT scans are better at looking for the underlying inflammation caused by the virus on the lungs and have shown the characteristic changes without symptoms or swabs.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I just talked to the Dr. Due to lack of coronavirus tests in our area I will not be tested.
> 
> Self isolate for 7 to 14 days.
> 
> If I get breathing problems call back again.


Tower to Chris: You are not cleared for departure.


swampyankee said:


> How goddamn stupid can people be?


<Humanity>Ummm... Hold my beer.</Humanity>


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 4, 2020)

Hang in there, Chris. Stay isolated, stay safe, keep your chin up, and know we're all pullin' for ya!
Wes

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

Thanks.So far, other than the fever, aches, and chills I do not feel all to bad. Hopefully it stays mild like this. Dr. thinks it’s likely Corona, but know way to confirm without a test.

So I just take it day at a time, and hope I am one of the mild ones.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 4, 2020)

You're young, you'll get over it!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

And our hospitals have reached the breaking point...

Which coronavirus patients will get life-saving ventilators? Guidelines show how hospitals in NYC, US will decide


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

ATTENTION:
EMPLOYEE NOTICE
Due to the current financial situation caused by the Corona Virus and slowdown in the economy, the Government has decided to implement a scheme to put workers of 50 years of age and above on early, mandatory retirement, thus creating jobs and reducing unemployment.
This scheme will be known as RAPE (Retire Aged People Early).
Persons selected to be RAPED can apply to the Government to be considered for the SHAFT program (Special Help After Forced Termination).
Persons who have been RAPED and SHAFTED will be reviewed under the SCREW program (System Covering Retired-Early Workers).
A person may be RAPED once, SHAFTED twice and SCREWED as many times as the Government deems appropriate.
Persons who have been RAPED could get AIDS (Additional Income for Dependents & Spouse) or HERPES (Half Earnings for Retired Personnel Early Severance).
Persons who have AIDS or HERPES will not be SHAFTED or SCREWED any further by the Government.
Persons who are not RAPED and are staying on will receive SHIT (Special High Intensity Training). The Government has always prided itself on the amount of SHIT it gives to its citizens.
Should you feel that you are not receiving enough SHIT, please bring this to the attention of your immediate supervisor, who has been trained to give you all the SHIT you can handle.
Sincerely,
The Committee for Economic Value of Individual Lives (E.V.I.L.)
PS - Due to Corona Virus, recent budget cuts, the rising cost of utilities and current market conditions, The Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.

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## Graeme (Apr 4, 2020)

My wife (registered nurse) had flu-like symptoms recently and was tested for Corona. When on the phone with the Corona virus 'hot line' she asked if until the result was known should I stay home. Their advice was, provided we "stay away from each other" and I'm asymptomatic, I can continue to work.

Hmmm.....


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

Graeme said:


> My wife (registered nurse) had flu-like symptoms recently and was tested for Corona. When on the phone with the Corona virus 'hot line' she asked if until the result was known should I stay home. Their advice was, provided we "stay away from each other" and I'm asymptomatic, I can continue to work.
> 
> Hmmm.....



Ridiculous. That is why we cannot get ahead of this (despite our ridiculously late response to it). People and our leaders do not take social distancing serious, or the virus (just look at some of the posters here). The lockdowns/shutdown is a joke. The only essential places that should be open are grocery stores, hospitals and clinics, law enforcement, fire departments, and gas stations.

Home Depot or Lowes for instance are not “essential”, yet go drive past one and the parking lot is full. 

People need to stay home. The sooner we figure that out, the sooner we can try and get back to something resembling normalcy. Sure people can still get it. Look at me, I have only been to the grocery store once in the last 24 days, and I seem to have gotten it, but numbers will be drastically reduced.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 4, 2020)

Night Fighter Nut said:


> Something I came across in my readings. What do you guys think?
> 
> "at the2 University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, scientists say they may have found one already. What’s more, is that their findings show their supposed treatment can be rolled out rapidly to reduce the spread of the virus. The delivery system is not one injection, but in a fingertip-sized patch containing 400 “microneedles” (via NY Post):
> 
> ...


I heard something about this, if I recall the small microneedles weren't really for vaccination, but a means of determining who's vaccinated using a new technology called quantum-dots.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)



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## Zipper730 (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The lockdowns/shutdown is a joke. The only essential places that should be open are grocery stores, hospitals and clinics, law enforcement, fire departments, and gas stations.


Hey, I've been sitting at home the whole time.


> Home Depot or Lowes for instance are not “essential”, yet go drive past one and the parking lot is full.


They're morons, but so are all the people buying toilet paper by the ton (Wouldn't you go with rice, beans, peanut butter, jugs of distilled water, gatorade first? After all without food, you don't really need the toilet paper...)

I figure this would burn out fairly fast if there was no host. It can't last long outside the human body, so you just deprive it of a host and it will simply go away.


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## MiTasol (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Starting to get an elevated temperature and feeling very under the weather. No cough as of yet. I am isolating from my wife and children to be on the safe side. We’ll see.



Oh shit.
Hope it is just the flu or passes quickly
Best wishes


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## MiTasol (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My entire body aches, elevated temperature and the chills. They still won’t test though because I have not reached the magical 100.4 temp.



Same with my son in law and then when he eventually got a video consult with his doctor after having coughing fits for over a week it only took seconds before he had one of his coughing fits and they _you got it_ and prescribed medication to reduce the cough. He is starting to recover but if he had been on the medication a week earlier would be much better. * He has never had an elevated temperature.*

I suggest the moment you get a cough get a video consult.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Same with my son in law and then when he eventually got a video consult with his doctor after having coughing fits for over a week it only took seconds before he had one of his coughing fits and they _you got it_ and prescribed medication to reduce the cough. He is starting to recover but if he had been on the medication a week earlier would be much better. * He has never had an elevated temperature.*
> 
> I suggest the moment you get a cough get a video consult.



I did one earlier. They said to self-isolate for 7-14 days, and self-medicate unless I start getting trouble breathing.


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## MiTasol (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The lockdowns/shutdown is a joke. The only essential places that should be open are grocery stores, hospitals and clinics, law enforcement, fire departments, and gas stations.


One of my family is on an island in Honduras. Martial law and they are not kidding. Curfew from 8pm to 6am but not allowed off property unless to shop or get medical. Only allowed to shop one day a week (set by ID/passport last digit). Shops only open three days a week. Smugglers have their boats sunk. Some idiot tourists who showed up on a yacht told leave NOW or we sink your boat and all its contents and slam you in the pokey. Funny thing is they got the message.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> One of my family is on an island in Honduras. Martial law and they are not kidding. Curfew from 8pm to 6am but not allowed off property unless to shop or get medical. Only allowed to shop one day a week (set by ID/passport last digit). Shops only open three days a week. Smugglers have their boats sunk. Some idiot tourists who showed up on a yacht told leave NOW or we sink your boat and all its contents and slam you in the pokey. Funny thing is they got the message.



I’m honestly all about personal freedoms, but in the end, restricting them in the short term, might be the thing that saves lives over there. I think everyone can get through a lil short term inconvenience for the long term good.

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## ThomasP (Apr 4, 2020)

Hey guys,

Some numbers that you might find interesting.

US hospital bed numbers over the last 55 years. The US decline in hospital beds began in the early-1980s with the advent of federal deregulation of the hospital/healthcare system.

Hospital Type________1975________1995_________2020
Community
non-profit__________3339________3092_________2937
for-profit____________775_________752_________1296
state/local_________1761________1350__________965
Federal____________1177________1071__________209
total hospitals*_____7052________6265_________5407
total beds*____1,460,000____1,017,000______924,107
total ICU beds**__86,500_______69,500_______97,955

Population___216,000,000__266,600,000__331,000,000

people/hospital___30,630_______42,554_______61,217
people/bed_________148__________262__________358
people/ICU bed____2,497________3,836________3,379
beds/1000 people____6.8__________3.8 __________2.8
*As far as I know these numbers do not include psychiatric hospitals or their associated beds.
**Overall, adult sized Intensive Care beds account for about 10% of the total number of beds, with the actual number of ICU beds per hospital ranging from 1 actual bed to 16%. This number is for ICU beds in non-Federal hospitals only.

Hospital bed numbers compared around the world. Data is from 2013-14.
Country______beds/1000
Australia__________3.8
Austria___________7.6
Belarus_________11.0
Belgium__________6.2
Canada__________2.7
Croatia___________5.6
China____________4.2
Cuba____________5.2
Czech Rep._______6.5
Estonia__________5.0
France___________6.5
Germany_________8.3
Hungary_________7.0
Italy_____________3.4
Japan__________13.4
Kazakhstan______6.7
North Korea____13.2
South Korea____11.5
New Zealand_____2.8
Norway__________3.9
Poland__________6.3
Russian Fed._____8.2
Slovak Rep.______5.8
Spain___________3.0
Sweden_________2.6
Switzerland______4.7
Ukraine_________ 8.8
United Kingdom__2.8
United States____2.9*
*Note that in 1975, during the Cold war, the US had 6.8 beds per 1000 people. Also note that nearly all the countries with a number of 5 or higher occupy the expected Hot War areas in a WWIII scenario.


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## wuzak (Apr 4, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> They're morons, but so are all the people buying toilet paper by the ton (Wouldn't you go with rice, beans, peanut butter, jugs of distilled water, gatorade first? After all without food, you don't really need the toilet paper...)



If I'm getting beans in bulk I am also getting toilet paper in bulk.

Gatorade? Seriously?

Why distilled water? Why not just water? Or tap water, if your region has decent tap water, that is (so not including Flint MI).

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## wuzak (Apr 4, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, I’m not too crazily worried, I just want to know for the family. Unless I get severe symptoms, I will treat this like a bad bug. Stay away from my family, drink fluids and take over the counter.
> 
> Fever still rising though.



It could just be the flu....

But I hope all is well mate and that you recover quickly.


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## ThomasP (Apr 4, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 4
cases 865, recovered 440, hospitalized 180, deaths 24, tested 25,423*
fatality rate 2.8%
mortality rate 4.2 per million
tests rate 4.5 per thousand*
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 5, 2020)

wuzak said:


> If I'm getting beans in bulk I am also getting toilet paper in bulk.


Yeah but without food, TP is irrelevent.


> Gatorade? Seriously?


Yup, it is good for maintaining an electrolyte imbalance. You can dilute it about 1/2 with water to avoid a sugar rush.


> Why distilled water? Why not just water?


They sell it at stores in gallon size, and if water was to fail, it'd be good to have about a gallon per person per day. The odds aren't high, as the water system works fine.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 5, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Some numbers that you might find interesting.
> 
> US hospital bed numbers over the last 55 years.


Well, that's 48 years, but regardless, we have 63.3% the number of beds and 158% the people. Basically there are almost 2.5 times the number of people to beds.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2020)

Latest figures suggest New York State, despite having a population that's only one-third the size, is rapidly approaching the same number of infections as all of Italy. Of note, the rate of increase in Italy appears to be tapering off a little, whereas that in New York seems to be continuing unabated.


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## rochie (Apr 5, 2020)

Get well soon Chris


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 5, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Latest figures suggest New York State, despite having a population that's only one-third the size, is rapidly approaching the same number of infections as all of Italy. Of note, the rate of increase in Italy appears to be tapering off a little, whereas that in New York seems to be continuing unabated.


It seems the areas/ cities where living space is cramped are the most affected.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It seems the areas/ cities where living space is cramped are the most affected.



Absolutely, Joe, but it's indicative of how rapidly this virus is communicated. Simple, mundane actions like pushing the button for the elevator or opening a communal door mean that apartment buildings can become hotbeds for infection. 

There are early signs that the infection rates are lessening slightly in Europe. Hope the US can turn things around, too...and soon.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 5, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 128,948, new 4,316, deaths 15,887, new 525, recovered 21,815, new 819, tests 691,461, new 34,237
fatality rate 12.3% (2nd day stable)
mortality rate 263 per million
test rate 11.5 per thousand
test rate today 568 per million

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

Seems things are starting to take a turn for the better in Italy. Stay safe Vincenzo.

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## at6 (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Temp now a 100.6. I will call and see if they will test now. None of the shortness of breath or cough yet. Just fever, headache, body aches and chills. I really just need to know because of the family. Its not like they will give me anything regardless.


I sincerely hope that it's not the virus.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Seems things are starting to take a turn for the better in Italy. Stay safe Vincenzo.


Yes. Thanks and too You all

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## pbehn (Apr 5, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It seems the areas/ cities where living space is cramped are the most affected.


People often compare New York city to London but for the same population London has twice the area.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

at6 said:


> I sincerely hope that it's not the virus.



Temp climbed to 101.1 last night, but dropped back down to the 100.4 range today. Still got the aches and shakes, and a lil scratchiness in the throat. Otherwise feeling ok. Very mild symptoms so far, whatever it may be (flu or corona) I hope it stays this way, and that I will be good by easter.

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## Elmas (Apr 5, 2020)

Sharon Stone is with us!


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## Marcel (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Temp climbed to 101.1 last night, but dropped back down to the 100.4 range today. Still got the aches and shakes, and a lil scratchiness in the throat. Otherwise feeling ok. Very mild symptoms so far, whatever it may be (flu or corona) I hope it stays this way, and that I will be good by easter.


That’s around the 38C. Not too bad. If it doesn’t get bigger, you’ll be fine.


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## Gnomey (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Temp climbed to 101.1 last night, but dropped back down to the 100.4 range today. Still got the aches and shakes, and a lil scratchiness in the throat. Otherwise feeling ok. Very mild symptoms so far, whatever it may be (flu or corona) I hope it stays this way, and that I will be good by easter.


It’s more likely to be corona than flu particularly at this time of year. Flu season usually ends by March and it’s been superseded by corona recently. There’s hardly been any flu around so I would say it’s unlikely it’s a flu and more likely it’s corona even if you aren’t tested.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> It’s more likely to be corona than flu particularly at this time of year. Flu season usually ends by March and it’s been superseded by corona recently. There’s hardly been any flu around so I would say it’s unlikely it’s a flu and more likely it’s corona even if you aren’t tested.



Despite not testing me, my Dr. stated most likely it is corona. So far it is not too bad for me.

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## Marcel (Apr 5, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> It’s more likely to be corona than flu particularly at this time of year. Flu season usually ends by March and it’s been superseded by corona recently. There’s hardly been any flu around so I would say it’s unlikely it’s a flu and more likely it’s corona even if you aren’t tested.


But Chris has been in quarantine for more than 3 weeks. That’s a bit scary isn’t it?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

Marcel said:


> But Chris has been in quarantine for more than 3 weeks. That’s a bit scary isn’t it?



The only thing I can think of is when I went to get groceries about 10 days ago.


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## mikewint (Apr 5, 2020)

Study suggests new coronavirus may remain on surfaces for days

SARS-CoV-2 remained active on plastic and stainless steel surfaces for two to three days under the conditions in this experiment. It remained infectious for up to 24 hours on cardboard and four hours on copper. The virus was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours. These times will vary under real-world conditions, depending on factors including temperature, humidity, ventilation, and the amount of virus deposited.

We do any shopping ONLY on Tuesdays from 6-7AM when the stores are open only to seniors (60 or older) and we wear gloves and P95 masks while doing so. Gloves are removed outside the car and placed in a plastic bag which is sealed. Hands are then sanitized twice with alcohol gel (70%). Masks are removed in the car and placed in separate plastic bags. We bring our own shopping bags to the store checkout and they go from the car into the garage where they sit until the next day. (The people stocking shelves did not wear masks or gloves.) Frozen foods go directly into a freezer where they will stay until Saturday when they will be removed to another freezer. All canned goods are wiped down with disinfectant wipes as are any plastic wrapped items. (we wear gloves and P95 masks). Any boxes arriving via FedEx, UPS, or USPS remain outside until the next day. I used to bring ordinary mail directly into the house until I noticed that our rural mail carrier was unmasked and ungloved in their car. Arriving mail now goes into a special box in the garage where it sits until the next day.

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## gumbyk (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The only thing I can think of is when I went to get groceries about 10 days ago.


That could be your source - we're advised to wash all shopping with soap. I've stopped short of washing veges such as broccoli, etc that is going to be cooked, but it will sit in the fridge for 3 days until we use it.

Get well soon.


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## Gnomey (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The only thing I can think of is when I went to get groceries about 10 days ago.


Must be it though the latent time seems very variable for corona.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 5, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Absolutely, Joe, but it's indicative of how rapidly this virus is communicated.


And the fact that you can be non-infectious and still be spreading it completely unwittingly.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> That could be your source - we're advised to wash all shopping with soap. I've stopped short of washing veges such as broccoli, etc that is going to be cooked, but it will sit in the fridge for 3 days until we use it.
> 
> Get well soon.



Yeah we have been disinfecting everything in the garage before it comes in the house.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

A coworker of mine has passed. No confirmation if it was coronavirus related, but he was delivered to the ICU with pneumonia a few days ago. Either way it sucks. He was a good man.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> A coworker of mine has passed.


Ouch, sorry about that. Regardless of what he died for, it's still tragic.


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 5, 2020)

mikewint said:


> The virus was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours. These times will vary under real-world conditions, *depending on factors including temperature, humidity, ventilation, and the amount of virus deposited*.



Mike - glad you posted that. I saw this article this morning and my blood boiled. I'm no scientist or doctor but I think this was totally off base and irresponsible to publish, I could be wrong and if I am I'll admit it. Hugh, please chime in as well...

_"Prather has found that the ocean churns up all kinds of particulate and microscopic pathogens, and every time the ocean sneezes with a big wave or two, it sprays these particles into the air. She believes that this new coronavirus is light enough to float through the air much farther than we think. The six-feet physical distancing rule, she said, doesn't apply at the beach, where coastal winds can get quite strong and send viral particles soaring."_

Coronavirus at beaches? Surfers, swimmers should stay away, scientist says

No consideration to the items Mike mentioned, let alone the salt environment. If she went out and actually detected COVIS particulants, I'd find this more believable. IMO this is just adding to the hysteria.


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## Shortround6 (Apr 5, 2020)

Chris, get well soon and hope your family is safe.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2020)

Just when I thought I'd heard all possible permutations of COVID-19 stories, I learn that tigers at Bronx Zoo have tested positive. Suspicion is that an infected zoo worker passed it along.

Tiger at US zoo tests positive for coronavirus

You can't make up this stuff!!!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 5, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Just when I thought I'd heard all possible permutations of COVID-19 stories, I learn that tigers at Bronx Zoo have tested positive. Suspicion is that an infected zoo worker passed it along.
> 
> Tiger at US zoo tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> You can't make up this stuff!!!


Saw that earlier! Amazing!


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## gumbyk (Apr 5, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Just when I thought I'd heard all possible permutations of COVID-19 stories, I learn that tigers at Bronx Zoo have tested positive. Suspicion is that an infected zoo worker passed it along.
> 
> Tiger at US zoo tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> You can't make up this stuff!!!


So, people can't get tested, but Tigers can?

As long as it's not making the jump back to human again.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> So, people can't get tested, but Tigers can?



I said the same damn thing...


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## mikewint (Apr 5, 2020)

Domestic cats have been infected with COVID-19 by their owners, Live Science previously reported. Cats seem to have a receptor protein on the outsides of respiratory cells that is similar to the human counterpart involved in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Called ACE2, this receptor protein is what allows the virus to break into these cells and multiply.


"The feline ACE2 protein resembles the human ACE2 homologue, which is most likely the cellular receptor which is being used by SARS-CoV-2 for cell entry," Steven Van Gucht, virologist and federal spokesperson for the coronavirus epidemic in Belgium, told Live Science previously.


In a recent report published online in the preprint journal medrXiv, Hualan Chen of Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, described how SARA-CoV-2 was transmitted between cats in their respiratory droplets. Another paper, also published in medrXiv, found that of 102 cats tested in Wuhan, nearly 15% had antibodies to the virus, suggesting they can contract the virus from humans or other cats. No evidence has been found that cats can transmit the virus to humans, the authors of both studies noted.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 5, 2020)

Dam Chris, hope you get better quickly!

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## javlin (Apr 5, 2020)

[.  Kevin


buffnut453 said:


> Simple, mundane actions like pushing the button for the elevator or opening a communal door mean that apartment buildings can become hotbeds for infection.


Elevators!!!!!!!!!!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

My fever has gone down, but the chills have gotten worse. I cannot stop shivering.


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## javlin (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My fever has gone down, but the chills have gotten worse. I cannot stop shivering.


Keep an eye on the lungs Chris on 3/3 started what they thought was bronchitis AB's for two weeks ran out three days later pneumonia in the R/lung and now a 4 1/2 weeks later still om AB's (antibiotics) and still using inhalator.I have not had pneumonia in 50yrs strange timing but I never ran a fever or sore throat just that frigg'in cough.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

javlin said:


> Keep an eye on the lungs Chris on 3/3 started what they thought was bronchitis AB's for two weeks ran out three days later pneumonia in the R/lung and now a 4 1/2 weeks later still om AB's (antibiotics) and still using inhalator.I have not had pneumonia in 50yrs strange timing but I never ran a fever or sore throat just that frigg'in cough.



I still don’t have a cough fortunately. I honestly don’t know what I have. Just have to keep monitoring.

Get well and be safe my friend.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> So, people can't get tested, but Tigers can?


One serious problem I could think of is that, when infections use another species as a host, they can mutate: RNA viruses already mutate a lot, and depending on the exact nature of a Tiger's immune system, this could make things worse for all I know.



mikewint said:


> Domestic cats have been infected with COVID-19 by their owners, Live Science previously reported. Cats seem to have a receptor protein on the outsides of respiratory cells that is similar to the human counterpart involved in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Called ACE2, this receptor protein is what allows the virus to break into these cells and multiply.
> 
> "The feline ACE2 protein resembles the human ACE2 homologue, which is most likely the cellular receptor which is being used by SARS-CoV-2 for cell entry," Steven Van Gucht, virologist and federal spokesperson for the coronavirus epidemic in Belgium, told Live Science previously.


Do you think there's an odds that it could mutate into something deadlier?



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My fever has gone down, but the chills have gotten worse. I cannot stop shivering.


Yikes. Have you had any difficulty breathing?


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## wuzak (Apr 5, 2020)

I've got chills.

Mainly because the boss just came into his office and opened his door. I am convinced his office is the source of all coldness in this building!

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## wuzak (Apr 5, 2020)

FWIW cats have their own common coronovirus type. Apparently this novel coronavirus is quite similar to the cat version, and almost a perfect match to the bat version.

So it may not be so surprising that cats can get this virus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Yikes. Have you had any difficulty breathing?



Nope

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## ThomasP (Apr 5, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 5
cases 935, recovered 451, hospitalized 202, deaths 29, tested 26,777*
fatality rate 3.1%
mortality rate 5.1 per million
tests rate 4.5 per thousand*
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## jetcal1 (Apr 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Nope


Take care of yourself. You have a lot of friends here who will be mad at you if you don't.

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## Gnomey (Apr 6, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Mike - glad you posted that. I saw this article this morning and my blood boiled. I'm no scientist or doctor but I think this was totally off base and irresponsible to publish, I could be wrong and if I am I'll admit it. Hugh, please chime in as well...
> 
> _"Prather has found that the ocean churns up all kinds of particulate and microscopic pathogens, and every time the ocean sneezes with a big wave or two, it sprays these particles into the air. She believes that this new coronavirus is light enough to float through the air much farther than we think. The six-feet physical distancing rule, she said, doesn't apply at the beach, where coastal winds can get quite strong and send viral particles soaring."_
> 
> ...



Wind will certainly spread the virus particles more than 6ft (then so can a sneeze). The salty environment should counteract that. So there is some truth to it but very hard to prove either way so just follow the prescribed precautions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

I am not having breathing difficulties, but last night was weird. I kept feeling like I would stop breathing, but I wouldn’t. My breathing is normal, no shortness of breath, just a weird feeling.

Fever might have broken last night. I don’t have one at the moment, but I did take meds last night before bed.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 6, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Wind will certainly spread the virus particles more than 6ft (then so can a sneeze). The salty environment should counteract that. So there is some truth to it but very hard to prove either way so just follow the prescribed precautions.


Thanks Hugh - my thoughts as well. As always appreciate your input especially with all the BS being thrown around in the media.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll


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## Vincenzo (Apr 6, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) today
cases 132,547, new 3,599, deaths 16,523, new 636, recovered 22,837, new 1,022, tests 721,732, new 30,271
fatality rate 12.5%
mortality rate 274 per million
test rate 12 per thousand
today test rate 502 per million


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## mikewint (Apr 6, 2020)

Now here's the man that knows how to survive in this now virus infected world

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## Airframes (Apr 6, 2020)

Just been announced that British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been moved into ICU as the CV-19 symptoms have worsened.


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## Marcel (Apr 6, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Just been announced that British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been moved into ICU as the CV-19 symptoms have worsened.


Don’t like the guy, but I hope he will be okay.

here 4 weeks of quarantine start to ask its toll It’s mostly hard on the kids, with no social contracts which the computer cannot replace. They start to learn that having so much free time is not as fun as it seems to be at first. For me it’s easier, I work from home, making a 7:30 to 16:00h workday and actually doing what I do every day at work as well.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 6, 2020)

I hate being cooped up and this is maddening. I started getting a bad headache and cramps so I was worried about catching COVID, but thankfully it's just my better half trying to poison me. PHEW!

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## mikewint (Apr 6, 2020)

Omnipotens sempiterne Deus, qui salutis perpetuae illorum qui creditis: exaudi nos pro tua infirmum a fámulo tuo Boris Johnson., pro quo obsecro ut ope misericordiae tuae misericordiae misericordes, quia, cum corporali sanatione a restaurata, et ut Propter magnam gloriam tuam

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## eagledad (Apr 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am not having breathing difficulties, but last night was weird. I kept feeling like I would stop breathing, but I wouldn’t. My breathing is normal, no shortness of breath, just a weird feeling.
> 
> Fever might have broken last night. I don’t have one at the moment, but I did take meds last night before bed.



Heal swiftly and completely. May God Bless and protect you and your family.

Eagledad

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## tomo pauk (Apr 6, 2020)

Hopefully I'll not hex it, but here there was 'just' 40 of new cases and 1 death in last 24 hours, so we're at downward side of the curve. Hoping to the best for everyone.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

My fever seems to have broken after three days. It is still an elevated temp, but it has not been higher than 99.7 today. Body aches are much better.

New symptom though: mucus and scratch in the throat. No cough, and no problems breathing. The cherry trees outside are blooming. Seasonal allergies could play a part.

Had another conference call with my Dr. Fairly certain it is corona based off of what she is seeing. No test though, because all testing now is restricted to healthcare professionals and 1st responders only in my area. She said ICU patients are not even being tested anymore, because of a lack of testing kits. If they have corona symptoms they are just counted and treated as corona patients now. Yet someone way up top keeps touting in their press conferences that tests are everywhere, and everyone is getting tested. What did Göbbels say? If you tell a lie enough, it becomes the truth.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Just been announced that British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has been moved into ICU as the CV-19 symptoms have worsened.



See thats the part that scares me. How long did he have mild symptoms for before it became bad. I am afraid that I feel good to go and then it takes a turn for the worst unexpectedly and quickly two weeks from now.

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## Airframes (Apr 6, 2020)

Apparently he was confirmed as having the virus about 10 days ago, and went into hospital on Sunday, moved to ICU this evening, UK time, as " a precaution ".


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

Doctor Scolds Fox News: It’s ‘Irresponsible’ to Promote Unproven Coronavirus Drug


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 6, 2020)

tomo pauk said:


> Hopefully I'll not hex it, but here there was 'just' 40 of new cases and 1 death in last 24 hours, so we're at downward side of the curve. Hoping to the best for everyone.


Which territory/area is this?


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## tomo pauk (Apr 6, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Which territory/area is this?



Croatia (4 million population).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

Yeah lets listen to this arrogant piece of shit, rather than the real doctor and medical expert Dr. Fauci. This is the problem when you surround yourself with unqualified yes men who simply spew the shit you want to hear, rather than listen to people who say what you don’t, but speak the truth.

'I have a PhD': The spotlight is now on Peter Navarro's role in White House coronavirus response

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## pbehn (Apr 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Doctor Scolds Fox News: It’s ‘Irresponsible’ to Promote Unproven Coronavirus Drug


We now have daily "miracle cures" from all sorts of ventilators and breathing equipment to various drugs and vaccines "developed in just 9 days" I can develop a drug in 9 days, It doesn't mean it works. Today we have someone developing an "app" that can diagnose CV-19 from the sound of peoples voice, well that's going to be 99% accurate at least, I cant wait to buy it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

pbehn said:


> We now have daily "miracle cures" from all sorts of ventilators and breathing equipment to various drugs and vaccines "developed in just 9 days" I can develop a drug in 9 days, It doesn't mean it works. Today we have someone developing an "app" that can diagnose CV-19 from the sound of peoples voice, well that's going to be 99% accurate at least, I cant wait to buy it.



I am just getting so frustrated, and do not understand how so many can eat up this BS.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

Half of the US hydroxychloroquine supply — the drug Trump touts as a possible coronavirus treatment — has been abruptly cut off

So now we have a drug being touted by dimwits as a miracle cure for coronavirus, but real life experts are saying not so much, in short supply. So people who really need it such as those being treated for Lupus won’t be able to get it. Someone needs to stop feeding the people BS, and realize their words have consequences. Hopefully doctors are telling their patients this is nonsense.


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## pbehn (Apr 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am just getting so frustrated, and do not understand how so many can eat up this BS.


On this side of the pond they just don't listen, so then they can make up "stuff" later much of it would be funny if people weren't dying.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2020)

pbehn said:


> On this side of the pond they just don't listen, so then they can make up "stuff" later much of it would be funny if people weren't dying.



Here people just lap it up. It’s very odd because many of them are highly educated smart people, and they knowingly ignore what is standing right in front of them for reasons that I will not name.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 6, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Wind will certainly spread the virus particles more than 6ft (then so can a sneeze).


I figure it'd be best for people to wear some form of improvised face-mask, if for no other reason than to contain the infection to those who have it (and since you can be asymptomatic and able to infect others unwittingly). 

The larger droplets have often proven to be the primary avenue of spread, so I would figure that would confine things at the source. When I was in the doctors office in late January (I had an upper-respiratory infection), there wasn't really much concern about COVID-19 (that said, it was the tail end of flu season, and my PC physician is a pulmonologist by training), but I was given a face-mask to wear. This never happened before, but nonetheless, I complied. I was later told that this kind of mask will not protect an uninfected person from the virus, but it would confine the infection to the person who has it.

That seems a good enough reason, as the virus has less ability to spread, and you can just run the clock out.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> See thats the part that scares me. How long did he have mild symptoms for before it became bad. I am afraid that I feel good to go and then it takes a turn for the worst unexpectedly and quickly two weeks from now.


He apparently had symptoms for 10 days before he went into the ICU. He was diagnosed at least on 3/26.


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## wuzak (Apr 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Doctor Scolds Fox News: It’s ‘Irresponsible’ to Promote Unproven Coronavirus Drug





> “What do you have to lose?” Trump asked over the weekend.



I'm guessing one's life, if the medicine isn't administered correctly.

According to the NY Times:

Total Cases: 365,525
Deaths: 10,925

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 6, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Total Cases: 365,525
> Deaths: 10,925.


"It'll just go away". Our fearless leader said so. It must be true.

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## wuzak (Apr 6, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "It'll just go away". Our fearless leader said so. It must be true.



Just like a miracle. I believe he also said that!


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## jetcal1 (Apr 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah lets listen to this arrogant piece of shit, rather than the real doctor and medical expert Dr. Fauci. This is the problem when you surround yourself with unqualified yes men who simply spew the shit you want to hear, rather than listen to people who say what you don’t, but speak the truth.
> 
> 'I have a PhD': The spotlight is now on Peter Navarro's role in White House coronavirus response



Relax, we're in good hands.

There's no need to worry until they say, "I'm from the government and here to help!"

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## pgeno71 (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah lets listen to this arrogant piece of shit, rather than the real doctor and medical expert Dr. Fauci. This is the problem when you surround yourself with unqualified yes men who simply spew the shit you want to hear, rather than listen to people who say what you don’t, but speak the truth.
> 
> 'I have a PhD': The spotlight is now on Peter Navarro's role in White House coronavirus response



Wasn't Fauci on TV about a week before Trump instituted the travel ban from China saying people in the US had nothing to worry about?


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Wasn't Fauci on TV about a week before Trump instituted the travel ban from China saying people in the US had nothing to worry about?


If he was, I must have missed it. That doesn't sound right, most un-Fauci-like.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Just like a miracle. I believe he also said that!


Just so!


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## ThomasP (Apr 7, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 6
cases 986, recovered 470, hospitalized 223, deaths 30, tested 28,128*
fatality rate 3.1%
mortality rate 5.2 per million
tests rate 4.9 per thousand*
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.










Here are some numbers to compare with the US and international numbers listed in my post#1,285. There are 143 community hospitals in the state of Minnesota, but the bed numbers are only for 129 of them.
total hospitals*________143
total beds*_________14,500+
total ICU beds*______1,500+

Population______5,700,000

people/hospital_____39,860
people/bed___________393
people/ICU bed____~3,800
beds/1000 people_____2.5+
*As far as I know these numbers do not include psychiatric hospitals or their associated beds.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Wasn't Fauci on TV about a week before Trump instituted the travel ban from China saying people in the US had nothing to worry about?



He said “At the time” it was not a major threat, using the information they had. Context my friend, context. That was with taking necessary precautions, which were never done.

The point of the post is that Peter Navarro is giving medical advice and telling the public they should listen to him because he has a PhD. His PhD’s are in Economics and Public Policy. Dr. Fauci is a real doctor whose PhD is in medicine, and has infectious disease experience. Trump should be taking medical advice from one, and not the other. The public should be given advice on medicine and cures from one, and not the other.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> If he was, I must have missed it. That doesn't sound right, most un-Fauci-like.



there are several websites that have cut portions of his statement and portrayed a narrative that he advised it was no big deal. This is not the case. If you read the entire statement, it basically states with certain precautions it is not a major threat. Which he had said all along.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2020)

Well my fever completely broke on night 3. Here on day 4, I feel much better, but my body is completely drained and void of energy. It took a lot of my body to beat whatever it was fighting. It feels like I ran a marathon. No more fever, very light aches, no more chills, less mucus, and only a very light scratch in the throat. Next few days will be interesting.

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## swampyankee (Apr 7, 2020)

Very few US politicians have significant STEM education (there are a few, although some of them, _e.g._, Ben Carson [the pyramids were not grain storage facilities; they are approximately solid lumps of rock, which kind of limits their use in that role] are far worse than a typical politician). Politicians without STEM education and with disdain for STEM expertise, the scientific method, and who mistake ideology for evidence are a massive problem. Like it as not, we have one in the White House and one in Blair House.

One thing many people -- especially strongly ideological people of any political stripe -- don't seem to understand is that scientific thought is _never absolute_: scientific theories are only as good as the latest _physical_ evidence. Documents and oral traditions, no matter how sacred, are completely irrelevant.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well my fever completely broke on night 3. Here on day 4, I feel much better, but my body is completely drained and void of energy. It took a lot of my body to beat whatever it was fighting. It feels like I ran a marathon. No more fever, very light aches, no more chills, less mucus, and only a very light scratch in the throat. Next few days will be interesting.



That''s great news, Chris. Glad you seem to be well on the road to recovery. Looks like we won't have to send the boys round to give you a good talking-to!!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2020)

And there you have it...

Trump has a distant financial link to a pharma giant that makes the drug he's been pushing to fight COVID-19 — but it's probably worth less than $1,000

Although his stake is very small, several of his associates have much higher financial stakes in the drug. Interesting article.

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## swampyankee (Apr 7, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Minnesota report, April 6
> cases 986, recovered 470, hospitalized 223, deaths 30, tested 28,128*
> fatality rate 3.1%
> mortality rate 5.2 per million
> ...



There are about 8700 hospital beds in Connecticut, including the short-term psychiatric beds in hospitals. About 10% of these are ICU beds. This count doesn't include long-term psychiatric facilities, _e.g., _the Institute of Living. 

Throughout the US, there has been a long-term decline in the number of hospital beds since the early 1980s. There is also a tendency for hospitals to keep minimum inventories of consumables, like N95 masks, which makes economic sense, but only works until there's a pandemic and the demand for consumables spikes and the supply chain gets disrupted. While hospitals do plan for mass casualty events, a local event, like a plane crash or a terrorist attack, doesn't disrupt the supply chain and nearby stockpiles, such as at distant hospitals or suppliers' warehouses can be transferred to the area of high demand. With this global, ongoing pandemic that kind of planning is insufficient. Incidentally, it has been thought about: the Obama->Trump transition period had an exercise covering global pandemic coming into the US. We've also had global pandemics in the past: Spanish flu (which almost certainly originated in the US Midwest) being the most widespread and lethal. We've also had endemic tuberculosis (which killed two of my father's grandparents; his grandfather probably contracted it during his service in the US Civil War), polio (run, don't walk, to get your children vaccinated!) and severe outbreaks of measles, mumps, and rubella.

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## Gnomey (Apr 7, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Apparently he was confirmed as having the virus about 10 days ago, and went into hospital on Sunday, moved to ICU this evening, UK time, as " a precaution ".


9-10 days in is the typical tipping point for whether you’ll get better or not. Then it just a matter of time and what level care is needed.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> strongly ideological people of any political stripe -- don't seem to understand is that scientific thought is _never absolute_: scientific theories are only as good as the latest _physical_ evidence.





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> there are several websites that have cut portions of his statement and portrayed a narrative that he advised it


The deliberative, non-commital nature of scientific speech renders it especially susceptible to out-of-context sound bites. And what percentage of American adults have even heard the term "media literacy", never mind understand it? American schools, you're WAY behind the 8-ball! Ask any European or ("free" world) Asian, they'll tell you.
OTOH, even educated folks who should know better are often more loyal to ideological ties than to scientific rigor. Ideology has replaced traditional religion as the faith of the people.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 7, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) today, 7th April
cases 135,586, new 3,039, deaths 17,127, new 609, recovered 24,392, new 1,555, tests 755,455, new 33,723
fatality rate 12.6%
mortality rate 284 per million
test rate 12.5 per thousand
test rate today 559 per million


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> OTOH, even educated folks who should know better are often more loyal to ideological ties than to scientific rigor. Ideology has replaced traditional religion as the faith of the people.


MEA CULPA! Despite my high-sounding rhetoric, I sometimes find myself unreceptive to repugnant facts from the other side of the aisle, even though I can't legitimately refute them. Intellectual honesty has its limits.
Cheers,
Wes


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## pgeno71 (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He said “At the time” it was not a major threat, using the information they had. Context my friend, context. That was with taking necessary precautions, which were never done.
> 
> The point of the post is that Peter Navarro is giving medical advice and telling the public they should listen to him because he has a PhD. His PhD’s are in Economics and Public Policy. Dr. Fauci is a real doctor whose PhD is in medicine, and has infectious disease experience. Trump should be taking medical advice from one, and not the other. The public should be given advice on medicine and cures from one, and not the other.



I think people should take medical advice only from the doctor that is treating them. Nor should Fauci, or anybody else be giving medical advice at a presss conference, doctor or not. As for context, you seem to imply it was a lack of information. I think it was more likely hubris on the part of experts who have actually never experienced a disease as easily-spread and fatal as this one. I am not saying that Fauci does not know what he is doing, I am not a political hack, but experts always think they know what will happen, and when it does, it doesn't always follow there game plan. I do not what to go down the rabbit hole and play "should have/could have " (like some politicians are), but I think a person of his experience should have been more concerned. Do I blame him? Of cources not. It is a pandemic of a novel virus. I do not believe anything could have stopped it from spreading, especially if asymptomatic people can infect others. That is a game changer. And we as a nation and a planet were not prepared, nor do I believe we could have been. And, sadly, will not be in the future. When things go back to normal, we may focus on preparedness for the next one, but how long will that last. How many ventilators will we stock pile? How many PPE's will we require hospital to have in stock as they take up space and increase the costs of hospital administrators? How long will it last? The US had not seen a similar situation in just over a century and our focus and attention on preparedness will not last that long.

We do not know enough about the virus "at this tine" to assess the cost and efficacy of the response. Regardless of what you think about certain political leader on either side of the aisle, it is and was always going to be a chaotic response because government and the health care systems are bureaucracies and bureaucracies to not respond to out-of-the-ordinary business very well. Partisanship on the part of the press and government leaders does not make it better either, but that is the nature of their world as the jockey for ratings and political name-recognition in an election year. 

When I started this post I was mad, not an any individual person or post, but at the partisanship that keeps creeping up in people's posts. I read this thread because we have people on it from all over the world and I am curious about there experiences in this event that is affecting almost all of us.. If I wanted not to hear partisan jabs at politicians that people hate, I would read Twitter. And there is plenty of criticism and second-guessing for all of them. 

BTW, I hope you are feeling better and wish you a speedy recovery, and hope the rest of your family stays healthy. Wish every else and their family safety and good health.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2020)

I agree with you that people should only take medical from their doctors. I also agree with much of your post.

I try to keep politics out of my posts, because it does not belong on this forum. But i will be honest, it is very difficult to not be partisan, and not get political. Especially with what we have at the moment. In all honesty I don’t consider myself partisan. In fact those that actually know me personally know that I am very centered in my beliefs. Some of me leans left, some leans right, I am very middle of the road. Outside of this forum I criticize both sides of the coin. Unfortunately in the context of this topic, my criticism lies mostly with the one particular side.

But I agree, this should not be the place for it.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 7, 2020)

Very glad to hear you are on the mend Chris.

Thought I'd post this interesting product my wife picked up at the grocery store yesterday. It's hand sanitizer made by a local craft brewery, hence the container, and you could only get it at the customer service desk.

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## Marcel (Apr 7, 2020)

Yeah, stop it Chris or I’ll have to ban you 

Arjen Lubach ( the guy from “The Netherlands second”) had a nice graph setting the seriousness of the pandemic against the amount of action of different governments. Some of he lines were quite interesting

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> It's hand sanitizer made by a local craft brewery


Two of our local distilleries and numerous microbreweries have switched over to sanitizer production.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 7, 2020)

Yeah, we have quite a few here doing that but its the first time I've actually seen their product.


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## Airframes (Apr 7, 2020)

Just hope they get the right stuff in the right cans when this is all over !!!


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## pgeno71 (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree with you that people should only take medical from their doctors. I also agree with much of your post.
> 
> I try to keep politics out of my posts, because it does not belong on this forum. But i will be honest, it is very difficult to not be partisan, and not get political. Especially with what we have at the moment. In all honestly I don’t consider myself partisan. In fact that those that actually know me personally know that I am very centered in my beliefs. Some of me leans left, some leans right, I am very middle of the road. Outside of this forum I criticize both sides of the coin. Unfortunately in the context of this topic, my criticism lies mostly with the one particular side.
> 
> But I agree, this should not be the place for it.



Thanks for your thoughtful response. There is just one more point I forgot to make in the earlier post. I think there is a difference between being partisan and political. I believe being political be having a discussion of what works/ed, what failed, which choice turned out to be right or wrong. Now I understand no one will be objective in their assessment, everybody comes with an angle, but I think there is a wide range of acceptable criticism that is helpful. 

Ex. 1 (Political)
He or she's decision to do A was wrong because it led to B. He or she should have done C because it would have led to D.

Ex. 2 (Partisan)
He or she's decision to do A was wrong because it led to B, which proves he or she is an idiot, racist, xenophobe, misogynist, economically-motivated, etc. And since he or she was all of the aforementioned things, he or she would not have C, which would have led to D, which he or she did not what D to happen because he or she is an idiot, racist, xenophobe, misogynist, economically-motivated, etc. 

Now this does not mean we cannot make a moral assessment of someone. Let's take for example Adolph Hitler. To easy, I know, but pretty much everybody concludes evil. I agree. But Hitler's evilness was not the cause of the widespread anti-Semitism of Europe and the US in the early decades of the 20th century, which directed and rooted his ideology. I believe you nailed on the head in an earlier post when you said "context" and timely-information. You do not get either in partisan battles which a just often times hyperbole. I do not believe _Time_ magazine thought Hitler was evil when they named him Man of the Year in 1938. 

Ok, I'm done with this, it is too much like work. It is giving me a headache. I have decided that today I will continue to save the world by keeping my fat ass firmly planted on my cough. If sitting on my ass was a super power, I'd be the new Captain America, minus the spandex suit. Nobody wants to see that. 

Take care and good health.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I think people should take medical advice only from the doctor that is treating them. Nor should Fauci, or anybody else be giving medical advice at a presss conference, doctor or not.


Slippery slope here. Where do you draw the line between public health policy recommendations and medical advice? When does a procedure, policy, or treatment mentioned or advocated by a national medical spokesman cross that line?
Food for thought.
Cheers,
Wes

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## jetcal1 (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well my fever completely broke on night 3. Here on day 4, I feel much better, but my body is completely drained and void of energy. It took a lot of my body to beat whatever it was fighting. It feels like I ran a marathon. No more fever, very light aches, no more chills, less mucus, and only a very light scratch in the throat. Next few days will be interesting.


Well, you were feeling good enough to give us a status report. And that's a good sign.

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## mikewint (Apr 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> from the doctor that is treating them.


WOW!! You live in a place where you ACTUALLY see an ACTUAL M.D. Doctor and you actually get to SPEAK to one ZOWIE-Batman you must be a VERY special person or live in a very special place. Around this neck of the woods only God speaks to an actual M.D.-type Doctor and then only with an appointment 3 months in advance. Calling (at least 3 times) gets you a Doctor's Nurse's telephone recording in which they tell the same joke "Your call is important to us and will be returned in 24 hours" Yea sure, and I'm Queen of the May. Appointments, here you actually see a P.A. who supposedly discusses his/her findings with the Doctor who rumor has it recommends a course of treatment. Oh yea, as icing on the cake you never see the same P.A. twice in a row so P.A. X take you off a particular drug and 6 months later P.A. Y puts you back on the original drug.
It has been three years since I've actually seen an M.D. except on TV


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## jetcal1 (Apr 7, 2020)

mikewint said:


> "It has been three years since I've actually seen an M.D. except on TV"



They're really not doctors, they just play one on TV. For best results, find one who stayed at Holiday Inn Express last night.

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## gumbyk (Apr 7, 2020)

mikewint said:


> WOW!! You live in a place where you ACTUALLY see an ACTUAL M.D. Doctor and you actually get to SPEAK to one ZOWIE-Batman you must be a VERY special person or live in a very special place. Around this neck of the woods only God speaks to an actual M.D.-type Doctor and then only with an appointment 3 months in advance. Calling (at least 3 times) gets you a Doctor's Nurse's telephone recording in which they tell the same joke "Your call is important to us and will be returned in 24 hours" Yea sure, and I'm Queen of the May. Appointments, here you actually see a P.A. who supposedly discusses his/her findings with the Doctor who rumor has it recommends a course of treatment. Oh yea, as icing on the cake you never see the same P.A. twice in a row so P.A. X take you off a particular drug and 6 months later P.A. Y puts you back on the original drug.
> It has been three years since I've actually seen an M.D. except on TV


Well, that's the for-profit medical system for ya!
Nurses here are limited in what they can do, usually vaccinations, triaging, etc. Medical P.A? Never heard of them outside of this forum...

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## ThomasP (Apr 7, 2020)

Hey guys,

For anyone not familiar with the PA:

A Physician Assistant (PA) is someone who - under the supervision of an MD - is licensed to diagnose, treat, and prescribe medication for patients who have illnesses within their and the supervising MD's area of expertise. For the most part the PA functions as a workload relief aide in the general medicine area, allowing MDs to focus on the more difficult diagnoses and treatments, and allowing the MDs to deal with more cases. The PA may, however, specialize in much the same way as an MD.

Most state governments and medical systems require a Masters degree, testing and certification by the state in which they work, and an internship under the close supervision of qualified medical personnel with whom they intern (MDs, senior PAs, senior Nurses, etc). As with all professional medical careers in the US, there is also a requirement for continuing education and performance/qualification evaluations.

The above should not in any way serve to understate the value or skill of the PA. In many cases an experienced PA can be as skilled as an MD, within the PA's limits of education, experience, and authority.

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## javlin (Apr 7, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> The above should not in any way serve to understate the value or skill of the PA. In many cases an experienced PA can be as skilled as an MD, within the PA's limits of education, experience, and authority.


I have seen the same PA 3X in the 4 weeks because my regular doctor at another office required a weeks notice but the offices are related.


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## wuzak (Apr 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Some of me leans left, some leans right,



I'm sure your left side leans left and your right side leans right. And if both are in balance, you don't fall over.

Good to hear that you are doing better.

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## gumbyk (Apr 7, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I'm sure your left side leans left and your right side leans right. And if both are in balance, you don't fall over.
> 
> Good to hear that you are doing better.


No, the left side has to lean right, and the right side has to lean left. Otherwise he'd fall apart 


I'll get me coat...

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## ThomasP (Apr 7, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 7
cases 1,069**, recovered 549, hospitalized 242, deaths 34, tested 29,260*
fatality rate 3.2%
mortality rate 6 per million
tests rate 5.1 per thousand*
*Test kits are in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**296 of the cases are healthcare workers, nearly all contracted the virus through their work duties.


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## gumbyk (Apr 7, 2020)

We're still pretty lucky here - around 1,200 cases, and one fatality. Daily new case numbers were 54 yesterday, and 50 today, and trending down.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 7, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> around 1,200 cases, and one fatality.



Yup, and even then, according to health professionals that fatality was a result of complications from an existing condition, she just happened to have covid-19. How you doing Aaron? Still working? We've grounded over half the fleet of Dashes and ATRs, but some are still flying, so we have work, but on a reduced scale.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Oh yea, as icing on the cake you never see the same P.A. twice in a row


That's the regime I learned to fly under. The club actively discouraged students from developing attachments to any one instructor, all in the name of standardization, and they were relentless about it. Bad idea in my book.


ThomasP said:


> As with all professional medical careers in the US, there is also a requirement for ongoing education/performance evaluation/qualification.
> The above should not in any way serve to understate the value or skill of the PA. In many cases an experienced PA can be as skilled as an MD, within the PA's limits of education, experience, and authority.


I go to a rural health center which has one very senior, very experienced, very wonderful MD, (who keeps the place running in his spare time), three young, enthusiastic, and green as grass MDs, and, seven or eight PAs who are mostly old hands who've seen it all. "My" PA holds a PHD in medical education, is chair of the Physicians Assistant program at a medical school over in NH and works at our health center one day and two nights a week. She "counsels" the young docs like a GySgt with a brand new 2nd Lt. Just a VT farm girl who grew up milking cows before school and before dinner and homework, and never quite quit "growing up". I get regularly asked if I mind a PA student sitting in on my appointment, as I have a long term chronic condition that I'm an experienced manipulator of. Usually results in some interesting conversations and meeting dedicated and talented young people. I keep hearing: "I want to do 'hands on' medicine, not be an administrator like the MDs".
Cheers,
Wes


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## MiTasol (Apr 8, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I figure it'd be best for people to wear some form of improvised face-mask, if for no other reason than to contain the infection to those who have it (and since you can be asymptomatic and able to infect others unwittingly).
> 
> The larger droplets have often proven to be the primary avenue of spread, so I would figure that would confine things at the source. When I was in the doctors office in late January (I had an upper-respiratory infection), there wasn't really much concern about COVID-19 (that said, it was the tail end of flu season, and my PC physician is a pulmonologist by training), but I was given a face-mask to wear. This never happened before, but nonetheless, I complied. I was later told that this kind of mask will not protect an uninfected person from the virus, but it would confine the infection to the person who has it.
> 
> That seems a good enough reason, as the virus has less ability to spread, and you can just run the clock out.



I would offer two other reasons for wearing a mask of some sort.

I suffer from dry eye so am always rubbing my eyes and have done so for years because it assists the eyelids to express lubricant
I have also had an itchy nose for years.
Breaking these habits has been impossible so far so when I went to town today for first trip in 3 weeks I wore one of my wife's wood turning masks.

Probably totally useless as a medical mask but it was very effective to stop the rubbing of both eyes and nose because as soon as I touched it it provided the proverbial _stop that you idiot _message

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## MiTasol (Apr 8, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Ok, I'm done with this, it is too much like work. It is giving me a headache. I have decided that today I will continue to save the world by keeping my fat ass firmly planted on my cough. If sitting on my ass was a super power, I'd be the new Captain America, minus the spandex suit. Nobody wants to see that. Take care and good health.



Then obviously you are planning on following the instructions in one particular video I got in an email today exactly. I will not post it as it probably would not pass the profanity test but one of the background images is the famous Brit Keep calm poster with the bottom half saying _and do %^& all_


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## MiTasol (Apr 8, 2020)

mikewint said:


> WOW!! You live in a place where you ACTUALLY see an ACTUAL M.D. Doctor and you actually get to SPEAK to one ZOWIE-Batman you must be a VERY special person or live in a very special place. Around this neck of the woods only God speaks to an actual M.D.-type Doctor and then only with an appointment 3 months in advance. Calling (at least 3 times) gets you a Doctor's Nurse's telephone recording in which they tell the same joke "Your call is important to us and will be returned in 24 hours" Yea sure, and I'm Queen of the May. Appointments, here you actually see a P.A. who supposedly discusses his/her findings with the Doctor who rumor has it recommends a course of treatment. Oh yea, as icing on the cake you never see the same P.A. twice in a row so P.A. X take you off a particular drug and 6 months later P.A. Y puts you back on the original drug.
> It has been three years since I've actually seen an M.D. except on TV



And then when you actually get to see a doctor there is the problem of what their religious and political biases are. 
Here it usually only takes 3 weeks to get a non critical appointment in normal times but the clinic, like all others in rural areas, has a very high staff turnover.
In the last couple of years I have had one want to take me off a medication prescribed days earlier because it contained alcohol and another tell me I should not have the latest flu vaccine because it is manufactured in the USA. In both cases I informed them I would be reporting them to the medical ombudsman and they quickly decided that the advice they gave seconds earlier was mistaken


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 8, 2020)

This was interesting, in the US if a patient dies with COVID, regardless of why they died it's classified as a death from COVID.

Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> This was interesting, in the US if a patient dies with COVID, regardless of why they died it's classified as a death from COVID.
> 
> Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause



Would they have likely died now had they not had the virus? Diabetes is an underlying condition that contributes to coronavirus deaths, but is manageable under normal conditons. Therefore you should not list it as a death caused by diabetes right?

Point is that if the virus was the catalyst it should be the cause of death, with contributing factors.

It’s no different when classifying aircraft accidents. You put the actual probable cause, and then you list the contributing factors (i.e. underlying issues).

Examples:

Cause of death: Covid-19
Contributing factor: heart disease
Contributing factor: obesity

Cause of accident: Controlled Flight Into Terrain
Contributing factor: Pilot had alcohol in his system
Contributing factor: spatial disorientation

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2020)

There's no 100% satisfactory way to record the deaths. Per the interview with a NYC doctor I posted a few pages back, we wouldn't put a cause of death as "Doctor took the patient off a ventilator because it was needed for someone younger." The line has to be drawn somewhere and the line, as-is, is probably as good as any other. 

This article might be interesting:

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

Fever is completely gone. Headache is completely gone. Chills are completely gone.

Scratch in throat has increased, but still mild. Tightness in chest is being felt now, but also very mild. Slight cough now too, but also very mild. No breathing problems.

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## Gnomey (Apr 8, 2020)

Definitely is announcing itself as corona Chris. Should be on the mend now though.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Definitely is announcing itself as corona Chris. Should be on the mend now though.



I hope so...


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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2020)

For those who are sheltering-in-place, use this handy-dandy grading scheme to determine how well you're bearing up (yes...pun is entirely intentional!):








Just trying to lighten the mood a wee bit!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

Well in an effort to be our forums live streaming patient... 

Dry cough has become much stronger and more persistent. Increasing rapidly. It now hurts a lil when I cough. It appears the virus is rearing its ugly lil head.


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## Marcel (Apr 8, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well in an effort to be our forums live streaming patient...
> 
> Dry cough has become much stronger and more persistent. Increasing rapidly. It now hurts a lil when I cough. It appears the virus is rearing its ugly lil head.


Oef. Sounds like corona alright. Best wishes send...

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## Crimea_River (Apr 8, 2020)

Take care of yourself and those around you Chris.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 8, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST), today 8th April
cases 139,422, new 3,836, deaths 17,669, new 542, recovered 26,491, new 2,099, tests 807,125, new 51,670
fatality rate 12.7%
mortality rate 293 per million
test rate 13.4 per thousand
today test rate 857 per million


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Take care of yourself and those around you Chris.



Nothing I can do for them, but cross my fingers. I’m locked in a 9 by 12 room since Saturday, hoping they by some chance do not get it.


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## gumbyk (Apr 8, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Yup, and even then, according to health professionals that fatality was a result of complications from an existing condition, she just happened to have covid-19. How you doing Aaron? Still working? We've grounded over half the fleet of Dashes and ATRs, but some are still flying, so we have work, but on a reduced scale.


Still 'working', but there's not a lot to do. I'm using the time to catch up on some business development plans, like a website, etc. I've got a couple of customers who are essential services, or support for it, so have a bit on, but not enough to pay the bills. I'm just lucky that I've built up some reserves, and between the Gov't subsidy and that I can keep going for 3-4 months without any income.


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## mikewint (Apr 8, 2020)

Chris, if Gnomy is correc and this is Corona it can do severe lung and heart damage in a very short time IMHO it is time to physically see and MD and get the test


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## michaelmaltby (Apr 8, 2020)

Half of us are going to come out of this quarantine as amazing cooks. The other half will come out with a drinking problem.

I used to spin that toilet paper like I was on Wheel of Fortune. Now I turn it like I'm cracking a safe

I need to practice social-distancing from the refrigerator.

Still haven't decided where to go for Easter ----- The Living Room or The Bedroom

PS: every few days try your jeans on just to make sure they fit. Pajamas will have you believe all is well in the kingdom.

Homeschooling is going well. 2 students suspended for fighting and 1 teacher fired for drinking on the job.

I don't think anyone expected that when we changed the clocks we'd go from Standard Time to the Twilight Zone

This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat. It was obvious she thought her cat understood her. I came into my house, told my dog..... we laughed a lot.

So, after this quarantine.....will the producers of My 600 Pound Life just find me or do I find them?

Quarantine Day 5: Went to this restaurant called THE KITCHEN. You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal. I have no clue how this place is still in business.

My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the toilet.

Day 5 of Homeschooling: One of these little monsters called in a bomb threat

I'm so excited --- it's time to take out the garbage. What should I wear?

I hope the weather is good tomorrow for my trip to Puerto Backyarda. I'm getting tired of Los Livingroom.

Classified Ad: Single man with toilet paper seeks woman with hand sanitizer for good clean fun.

Day 6 of Homeschooling: My child just said "I hope I don't have the same teacher next year".... I'm offended.​Better 6 feet apart than 6 feet under.
*REMEMBER, NO STORM LASTS FOREVER. HOLD *​

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Chris, if Gnomy is correc and this is Corona it can do severe lung and heart damage in a very short time IMHO it is time to physically see and MD and get the test



It does not work that way Mike.

There are no in person Dr. visits anywhere. They are all virtual now. There are no tests here. Protocol here is to only test 1st responders, doctors and nurses.

The only way you see a Dr in person is to go to the Emergency Room, and there they will only admit you if you are in respiratory distress.

There is no cure. All you can do is take over the counter drugs and let your body fight it off. My symptoms are very mild. I am not in respiratory distress. If I were to go to the ER, I would take up resources from someone who actually needs it now.

For 90% of the people who get this, staying at home and taking over the counter drugs will do the trick. That is what everyone has to do until symptoms become worse. Hopefully mine won’t. So far the DayQuil is working at keeping me comfortable.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So far the DayQuil is working at keeping me comfortable.



Hoping and praying that DayQuil continues to be sufficient for you, Chris, and that you make a full and rapid recovery with no knock-on consequences for your family.

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## ThomasP (Apr 8, 2020)



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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> View attachment 576674


Reverting to Bedouin style. That's what the left forefinger is for.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2020)

So sad...

A New York nurse laments his coronavirus patient's last words before intubation: 'Who's going to pay for it?'

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## Crimea_River (Apr 8, 2020)

I can't help but wonder, as I sit and see no contrails in the air and the fact that I can't recall the last time I drove my car further than a round trip to the grocery store, how much less carbon has been pumped into the atmosphere and how does this compare with what nations would need to do to meet the Paris accord. May be a bit off topic but I'm trying to exercise my brain.

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## fubar57 (Apr 8, 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/covid19-co2-emissions-1.5521271


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## fubar57 (Apr 8, 2020)

The only plus of this, if there is a plus, my car is now getting 3 weeks to the litre.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 8, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm just lucky that I've built up some reserves, and between the Gov't subsidy and that I can keep going for 3-4 months without any income.



Well, hang in there Aaron. Keep us updated.

The airline has very different plans for what happens going forward. Very few international flights and retirement of some of the fleet of Triple Sevens, as well as A320s, but domestic and regional will likely not change, which is a relief for us in Nelson.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 8, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/covid19-co2-emissions-1.5521271



Yeah, it stands to reason that this is all just temporary and we'll just get back to the same old ways eventually and do nothing for carbon reduction overall. But what I was trying to figure out is whether the reduced rate that we are now pumping out is what we would have to do every year to get on the reduction curve that the climate change experts say we need to be on. Or would we need to do even more. Anyway, this is all off topic and should go to a separate thread if there's interest.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 8, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> The only plus of this, if there is a plus, my car is now getting 3 weeks to the litre.



And the gas that you are now NOT needing to buy is really cheap!


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## wuzak (Apr 8, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> And the gas that you are now NOT needing to buy is really cheap!




Funny that here the price drop hasn't been nearly as much as it should. 10-20 cents per litre instead of the 40-50 it should have been.


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## gumbyk (Apr 8, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Well, hang in there Aaron. Keep us updated.
> 
> The airline has very different plans for what happens going forward. Very few international flights and retirement of some of the fleet of Triple Sevens, as well as A320s, but domestic and regional will likely not change, which is a relief for us in Nelson.


Hopefully things will pick up relatively quickly domestically. I know there's a lot being done behind the scenes, particularly for GA.


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## gumbyk (Apr 8, 2020)

Only 29 new cases today, looks like we may be getting on top of it!
Decision on lifting lockdown will be made on 20th April, hopefully it'll be lifted, even with borders effectively closed.

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## ThomasP (Apr 9, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 8
cases 1,154, recovered 632, hospitalized 271, deaths 39, tested 30,753*
fatality rate 3.4%
mortality rate 6.8 per million
tests rate 5.4 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## destrozas (Apr 9, 2020)

Here in Spain the situation begins to stabilize, with a contagion rate of. 1 / 0.98 soon there will be a lot of infections yesterday, the first day with less than 5000 new infections, but a rebound in deaths, here we are at 9.9% deaths and 38.7% cured, next week they will A population study of half a million people in 13 autonomous communities (for those who do not know it, Spain is constituted in a configuration of autonomous regions where all or almost all the powers of the state are transferred to regional governments), to make a study of asymptomatic and to know the population epidemiological level, since if it is close to 60% of the infected population or that it has overcome the infection it is considered an immunized population and it would begin to lift the confinement ... question that those who have respiratory complications, of some organ or immundepressants we would have an indefinite confinement until the vaccine was obtained or if we were lucky as with sars 1 and it disappeared completely ... here they have made a study and the death this virus produces for you. multi-organ failure, nl only the lungs have inflammation, if not the liver, panceas, stomach, heart even the heart ...


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## GrauGeist (Apr 9, 2020)

Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.

Great...

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## Zipper730 (Apr 9, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.


Well, I guess that means you'll be sitting at home quite a lot -- if you have netflix, hulu, and so on, you might want to get in on that.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 9, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.
> 
> Great...


It is about time you get a break djeezz.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 9, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.
> 
> Great...



Sorry to hear that. This thing is hitting the entire economy and it feels like nobody is immune from financial impacts. Hope things pick up soon and that you'll get taken back on.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

destrozas said:


> Here in Spain the situation begins to stabilize, with a contagion rate of. 1 / 0.98 soon there will be a lot of infections yesterday, the first day with less than 5000 new infections, but a rebound in deaths, here we are at 9.9% deaths and 38.7% cured, next week they will A population study of half a million people in 13 autonomous communities (for those who do not know it, Spain is constituted in a configuration of autonomous regions where all or almost all the powers of the state are transferred to regional governments), to make a study of asymptomatic and to know the population epidemiological level, since if it is close to 60% of the infected population or that it has overcome the infection it is considered an immunized population and it would begin to lift the confinement ... question that those who have respiratory complications, of some organ or immundepressants we would have an indefinite confinement until the vaccine was obtained or if we were lucky as with sars 1 and it disappeared completely ... here they have made a study and the death this virus produces for you. multi-organ failure, nl only the lungs have inflammation, if not the liver, panceas, stomach, heart even the heart ...



Have they confirmed that those recovered have immunity?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.
> 
> Great...



Sorry to hear that. Keep your head up.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

Virtual patient update...

Day 6 of symptoms. Had a persistent strong cough last night. Could not sleep on my back. Slept on my left side the entire time. Woke up every 30 minutes with anxiety that I could not breath*.

Woke up this morning with continued throat chest discomfort and cough. This remains mild though. 

*Note: This was all mental. At no time was I in respiratory distress. I could breath just fine. It was all in my head.*


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## buffnut453 (Apr 9, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Have they confirmed that those recovered have immunity?



Unfortunately, the FDA has only approved one test for COVID antibodies and I don't know how widespread they've been distributed. If we're struggling to distribute infection tests, I imagine we have similar problems getting the antibody tests to the community.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Unfortunately, the FDA has only approved one test for COVID antibodies and I don't know how widespread they've been distributed. If we're struggling to distribute infection tests, I imagine we have similar problems getting the antibody tests to the community.



If that test has been “distributed widely” like the actual virus test kits have, then it hasn’t been distributed at all.


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## fubar57 (Apr 9, 2020)

Bummer Chris. Get well Alder.


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## Marcel (Apr 9, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Have they confirmed that those recovered have immunity?


Here they found that people with mild symptomes had considerably less amount of anti-bodies in their blood. Not sure what it means, yet, but it might be that less symptomes correlate with a lower level of immunity.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Here they found that people with mild symptomes had considerably less amount of anti-bodies in their blood. Not sure what it means, yet, but it might be that less symptomes correlate with a lower level of immunity.



Yeah I am not reading anything about immunity. In fact I am reading that until a vaccine is developed this will not go away.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

Basically, we don’t know shit...

What to Know About Coronavirus Immunity and Chances of Reinfection

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## Marcel (Apr 9, 2020)

Yeah, that is quite accurate. It’a even more complicated than the amount of anti bodies. So basically, anti bodies recognise a part of the virus, which we call antigen. Once you’ve developed antibodies against a certain antigen, you’ll be immune to viruses having that particular antibody for the rest of your life. However, the antigen in RNA based viruses tend to change. Hence you’ll get ill of the flu every year again, although you’re immune for last ‘s flu for the rest of your life. 
we don’t even know how fast this virus mutates, but given this is an RNA virus, is very possible it’s as fast as the flu. Hence we can expect an epidemic every year.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

Damn...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

China, can we stop eating bats, cats, dogs, as well anything else just because it has a pulse? And can we change the way we treat and sell our food when it is still alive?

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## Vincenzo (Apr 9, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) 9th April
cases 143,626, new 4,204, deaths 18,279, new 610, recovered 28,470, new 1,979, tests 853,369, new 46,244
fatality rate 12.7%
mortality rate 303 per million
test rate 14.1 per thousand
test rate today 767 per million


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## pgeno71 (Apr 9, 2020)

Here's a couple of articles that might be worth reading.

Iceland is Doing Science — ~50% of People with COVID-19 Not Showing Symptoms, ~50% Have Very Moderate Cold Symptoms [UPDATED] | CleanTechnica
Iceland lab testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic - CNN

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## tomo pauk (Apr 9, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Since I was employed in the automotive business, I had to go to work because we were deemed "essential", however, with a drastic reduction in customer income, I was not deemed essential to the company, so I was laid off today.
> 
> Great...



Impact after an impact. Keep your chin up, Dave, and good luck.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)



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## vikingBerserker (Apr 9, 2020)

Man, I have an all new respect for DHEC and other government inspectors of food stuff


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## mikewint (Apr 9, 2020)

Chris, again IMHO that you cannot even "see" an MD and receive a test is a terrible travesty. What about the VA? While "seeing" a specialist like my cardiologist or orthopedist is a "fat-chance-bunkie" proposition I can still get in to see my primary Physician or one of the GPs that work with him within days of a call and I'm assuming he could refer me to a testing site but that is conjecture on my part. 
While I know that nothing really works against the virus itself there are supportive prescription drugs that work better the the OTC stuff like Prednisone and Nebulizer inhalation type drugs that can be very supportive. 
Möge der gute Gott über dich wachen, dich beschützen und dich in seiner Hand halten

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 9, 2020)

mikewint said:


> Chris, again IMHO that you cannot even "see" an MD and receive a test is a terrible travesty. What about the VA? While "seeing" a specialist like my cardiologist or orthopedist is a "fat-chance-bunkie" proposition I can still get in to see my primary Physician or one of the GPs that work with him within days of a call and I'm assuming he could refer me to a testing site but that is conjecture on my part.
> While I know that nothing really works against the virus itself there are supportive prescription drugs that work better the the OTC stuff like Prednisone and Nebulizer inhalation type drugs that can be very supportive.
> Möge der gute Gott über dich wachen, dich beschützen und dich in seiner Hand halten



Mike for the love of god, RELAX! I really appreciate your concern, but you need to chill. I am in touch with my Dr. She is advising me. No physicians office here in my area is seeing patients in person unless there is an emergency. It’s great that is not the case down where you live, but that is not case where I live.

I don’t need to see a specialist or any other Dr. unless my condition worsens. I am going through what 95% of other corona patients go through, and all of them are told to:

1. Take OTC Meds
2. Get rest.
3. Drink fluids.
4. STAY HOME

Thats it.

How are they supposed to give tests, when there are none in my area? Think about it.

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## fubar57 (Apr 9, 2020)

LOL...one day I may unblock him, Here's an interesting site...COVID Near You


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 9, 2020)

Wait, we can block people???????


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## Vincenzo (Apr 9, 2020)

3rd case in my town, 
now is asymptomatic, is a 55 years old worker in ICU


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## ThomasP (Apr 9, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 9
cases 1,242, recovered 675, hospitalized 293, deaths 50, tested 32,294*
fatality rate 4%
mortality rate 8.8 per million
tests rate 5.7 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.

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## MiTasol (Apr 10, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Funny that here the price drop hasn't been nearly as much as it should. 10-20 cents per litre instead of the 40-50 it should have been.



Same here in regional Qld. $1.29/l yesterday was the cheapest I saw going to and in town. ABC had an article on Sydney prices a few days back - ranged from 78c to $1.58/litre.

According to the Prime Minister to hoard is not Australian.

His silence on price gouging obviously means he considers that truly Australian.

Maybe this sums up his philosophy

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## wuzak (Apr 10, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Same here in regional Qld. $1.29/l yesterday was the cheapest I saw going to and in town. ABC had an article on Sydney prices a few days back - ranged from 78c to $158/litre.
> 
> According to the Prime Minister to hoard is not Australian.
> 
> ...



Still $1.39/l at most places here. Down from $1.54-$1.59/l


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## ThomasP (Apr 10, 2020)

Hey guys,

I thought that a similar report concerning the 1918 H1N1 'Spanish' flu pandemic might be interesting as a comparison to today's pandemic.

US report, 1918-1919***
cases ~25,500,000, recovered ?, hospitalized ?, deaths 555,000+, tested 0*
fatality rate 2.2%
mortality rate 5,388+ per million**
tests rate 0 per thousand*
*Test kits did not exist in 1918-1919.
**The US population was ~103,000,000 in 1918.
*** There were 3 waves, the first beginning in March 1918, the second in the fall of 1918, and the third in early-1919 - the third wave was relatively mild in the US.

Incidentally, the 'Spanish' flu did not originate in Spain. The first cases did not appear in Spain until [May 1918, two months]* after the first forensically confirmed cases of H1N1 in the US. The pandemic, however, is not considered to have begun in Spain until November 1918.*

It is possible (probable?) that the H1N1 virus responsible for the epidemic/pandemic originated in the US in the east coast region of New York, and was transported initially to military bases in the US and overseas via our soldiers sent to fight in WWI. In the 1800s and early-1900s the pigeon (aka squab) was routinely hunted (by the hundreds of millions, thus endeth the Passenger Pigeon) and eaten in restaurants on the east coast, as commonly as chicken is today. Pigeons for food were also raised in the same manner as chickens, with the advantage that the pigeon took up less space and resources and was therefor easier to raise in big cities. Humans were in close proximity and contact at a large scale, ideal for transmission of an inter-species virus (sound familiar?).

The first officially US recorded cases in Europe occurred in the early-summer of 1918, when doctors, accompanying reinforcements for the AEF, noted AEF soldiers displaying the symptoms onboard ship before arrival at Brest. The close confines of the troopships were a perfect place to spread the disease quickly (sound familiar?) among the soldiers.

Although the first cases were recorded in early-1918, the worldwide pandemic was not considered to have begun until late-summer to early-fall of 1918.

* My edit to reflect better information, it originally said "November 1918, eight months". And I added "The pandemic, however, is not considered to have begun in Spain until November 1918."


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 10, 2020)

Cough intensified last night. Got pretty strong. But has since passed. Very interesting how this thing is progressing.

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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 10, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 576841​



Yes, it is really showing us how stupid people are. If people would just listen, and stay away from each other we could get through this.


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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)

Watching the morning news just now; all coastal ferries are running, full of idiots travelling on the long weekend


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## swampyankee (Apr 10, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 576841​


There's a third: how dense the leadership is.

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## Marcel (Apr 10, 2020)

4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.


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## Shortround6 (Apr 10, 2020)

Hmmmm, radio waves................virus cells/microbes.................yep, sounds like the same thing to me, I will now go out and play in the middle of the road.


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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)

Supporters were last seen wearing tinfoil hats


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> 4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.


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## swampyankee (Apr 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> 4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.



The worst contagious disease in a crisis is stupidity


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> 4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.



I have a friend who seriously believes this was a biological attack to weaken the US before a military invasion. Seriously, he thinks this. He also thinks the Dems and “European Socialists” are helping.

He is actually an intelligent guy. It frightens me that he truly believes this.


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## rochie (Apr 10, 2020)

Here in UK in the last 24 hours.
980 dead
8985 total deaths


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## Vincenzo (Apr 10, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST), 10th April
cases 147,577, new 3,951, deaths 18,849, new 570, recovered 30,455, new 1,985, tests 906,864, new 53,495
fatality rate 12.8%
mortality rate 312 per million
test rate 15.1 per thousand
test rate today 887 per million


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## mikewint (Apr 10, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> It is possible (probable?) that the H1N1 virus responsible for the epidemic/pandemic originated in the US in the east coast region of New York,


I would most sincerely doubt it. While the exact foci will never be known I consider three candidates to be the most probable
1. The UK troop staging area in Etaples France. Fresh troops arrived everyday, a large hospital treated battlefield wounded, and transferring units passed through constantly. To feed all these troops a large pig and poultry farm/slaughter house was maintained on site. In late 1917 Army doctors at the camp recorded a new disease with a high death rate was sweeping the camp.
2. Haskell County Kansas. A pig/poultry farm in the county supplied nearby Fort Riley. In early 1918 Albert Glitchell a recruit from the county reported sick. With in a week there were over 500 more cases. Troops from Ft. Riley were sent to new York for embarkation to Europe.
3. Chinese pig/poultry farms and wet markets. The 1918 flu season in China was reportedly very mild with few deaths leading to speculation that the virus had been circulating for some time and the population had built an immunity to the virus. The British and French had imported over 95,000 Chinese laborers to work be hind the lines doing various types of manual labor. The laborers brought the virus with them

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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)



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## vikingBerserker (Apr 10, 2020)

5G towers causing this is ridiculous, everybody knows its from Swiss Chem Trails.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> 5G towers causing this is ridiculous, everybody knows its from Swiss Chem Trails.


Bullshit! It's libtard farts!

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## mikewint (Apr 10, 2020)



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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I have a friend who seriously believes this was a biological attack to weaken the US before a military invasion. Seriously, he thinks this. He also thinks the Dems and “European Socialists” are helping.
> 
> He is actually an intelligent guy. It frightens me that he truly believes this.


Goebbels would be proud. "Truth" spun in any way that supports the cause, and the loudest voices define the "mainstream" narrative, with more "extreme" interpretations not discouraged or refuted.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2020)

mikewint said:


> View attachment 576886


Behind every supertanker on the sea today.

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## pbehn (Apr 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> 4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.


The UK government and chief scientist were asked about this at a CV-19 briefing, it was only the fourth most stupid question asked that day. Even asking the question gives the story credibility and encourages the conspiracy theory, the most stupid part of it is 5G will carry the conspiracy theory just as well as it transmits the virus.... oops see what I just did?


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## buffnut453 (Apr 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The UK government and chief scientist were asked about this at a CV-19 briefing, it was only the fourth most stupid question asked that day. Even asking the question gives the story credibility and encourages the conspiracy theory, the most stupid part of it is 5G will carry the conspiracy theory just as well as it transmits the virus.... oops see what I just did?



I see exactly what you did. You said "oops" when your action was entirely intentional. Nothing "oops" about it!

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> the most stupid part of it is 5G will carry the conspiracy theory just as well as it transmits the virus.


So it DOES help the virus to spread! By indiscriminately spreading false info, encouraging inappropriate behavior.
THEY WERE RIGHT!

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## pbehn (Apr 10, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> So it DOES help the virus to spread! By indiscriminately spreading false info, encouraging inappropriate behavior.
> THEY WERE RIGHT!


If they destroy all the masts then their access to conspiracy theories is destroyed too. It is utter madness no comedy script could dream up, have we moved on from making statues of cows to worship? Because this stuff about 5G masts is like talk of "evil spirits".


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> If they destroy all the masts then their access to conspiracy theories is destroyed too.


Don't you worry about that. Conspiracy theories, like mushrooms, grow just fine in the dark, as long as you can generate enough sh...er.."fertilizer" to keep 'em going!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 10, 2020)

5G doesn't spread COVID-19
COVID-19 didn't start in a Chinese Lab
George Soros and Bill Gates did not finance COVID-19
The Chinese are not buying up stocks at bargain prices
Jeffrey Epstein did not kill himself

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## rochie (Apr 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The UK government and chief scientist were asked about this at a CV-19 briefing, it was only the fourth most stupid question asked that day. Even asking the question gives the story credibility and encourages the conspiracy theory, the most stupid part of it is 5G will carry the conspiracy theory just as well as it transmits the virus.... oops see what I just did?


At home we have started turning over as soon as the journalist start talking.

Same stupid questions day after day, more interested in finding a scandal than anything else, especially the BBC !

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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)



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## pbehn (Apr 10, 2020)

rochie said:


> At home we have started turning over as soon as the journalist start talking.
> 
> Same stupid questions day after day, more interested in finding a scandal than anything else, especially the BBC !


The press are demanding an inquiry into everything except themselves and their own idiotic performance and our "satirists" are satirising everything except the comedy gold that is the "press briefing". Most FB political forums are running a "stupid question of the day" post.


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## rochie (Apr 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> The press are demanding an inquiry into everything except themselves and their own idiotic performance and our "satirists" are satirising everything except the comedy gold that is the "press briefing". Most FB political forums are running a "stupid question of the day" post.


Well they have plenty to choose from, especially from Laura Kuenssburg !


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## pbehn (Apr 10, 2020)

rochie said:


> Well they have plenty to choose from, especially from Laura Kuenssburg !


I cant tell them apart but her "what will next week look like minister" was a new low for our national treasure's senior political editor.


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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2020)

Sounds a lot like Canadian "reporters" at the daily PM press conferences


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## pbehn (Apr 10, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Sounds a lot like Canadian "reporters" at the daily PM press conferences


Well it is a global problem needing a global "solution" achieved by asking the same stupid questions by different people in a different way. How many ways are there to say there is no vaccine, there is no treatment known to work apart from helping the patient to overcome the virus themselves, there is no reliable test to say if you have it or if you had it yet and screeching loudly wont change that.

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## Airframes (Apr 10, 2020)

Let's face it, if media reporters had any intelligence, they'd have a real job !

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## pgeno71 (Apr 10, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Let's face it, if media reporters had any intelligence, they'd have a real job !


It is frightening sometimes.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> 4 antennas for mobile telephony have been set on fire, probably by supporters of the theory that 5G helps spreading Corona.


It's not the first time anti-5G activists have set antennas on fire (they're generally a minority). 

The thing I'm amazed they don't get is: If the towers were causing the symptoms of CV-19 -- why would people be getting better?



pbehn said:


> The UK government and chief scientist were asked about this at a CV-19 briefing . . . . Even asking the question gives the story credibility and encourages the conspiracy theory


Conspiracy theories surface because people don't believe they are being told the truth. I would say the best way a person could feed into it would be to dismiss it out of hand without explaining why it's wrong. I figure the argument should be countered swiftly with accurate scientific responses.

5G works by transmitting at higher frequencies to facilitate a faster transmission of data, now this does have a variety of problems in that...

Higher frequencies don't travel as easily over long distances, and penetrate structures as well as lower frequency energy
This requires more power output, and more antennae in closer proximity to one another, which would increase the exposure to radio-frequency energy.
...This isn't good for public health for obvious reasons, and while I'm not a proponent of 5G, the fact is: It does *NOT* cause COVID-19: COVID (which is an abbreviation for *Co*rona *Vi*rus *D*isease) is caused by a virus, SARS-CoV-2. Microwave frequency radiation does not cause viruses.

Though some will talk about censorship, it's not the right answer: I can explain why, but it'll go into political territory and will probably get this whole thread killed.


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## ThomasP (Apr 11, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 10
cases 1,336, recovered 732, hospitalized 317, deaths 57, tested 33,894*
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 10 per million
tests rate 6 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.

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## wuzak (Apr 11, 2020)

Australia as at 1500 AEST, April 11 2020.

Confirmed cases: 6,292
Cases Recovered: 3,265
Deaths: 56
Fatality Rate: 0.89%
Current ICU cases: 80
Current Cases Admitted to Hospital: 240
Total Tests Conducted: 347,847
Positive Tests: 1.8%

Cases (Deaths) by State/Territory
Australian Capital Territory: 103 (2)
New South Wales: 2,857 (22)
Northern Territory: 27 (0)
Queensland: 974 (5)
South Australia: 429 (3)
Tasmania: 123 (4)
Victoria: 1,265 (14)
Western Australia: 514 (6)

65.2% of cases confirmed infected overseas, 23.9% confirmed infected locally from contact with known case, 8.9% confirmed infected locally, source unknown. The remainder to be determined.

As of yet, no deaths of people under the age of 50.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/def...avirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_7.pdf

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## wuzak (Apr 11, 2020)

Testing rate is about 14 per thousand.


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## tomo pauk (Apr 11, 2020)

In Croatia: 1945 confirmed positive (of those 82 are from yesterday), 21 deaths, 231 recovered.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 11, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Australia as at 1500 AEST, April 11 2020.
> 
> Confirmed cases: 6,292
> 
> ...



Afaik the Deaths/Cases is called fatality rate, mortality rate is deaths/population


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## wuzak (Apr 11, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Afaik the Deaths/Cases is called fatality rate, mortality rate is deaths/population



Fair enough...I'll fix it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> This isn't good for public health for obvious reasons, and while I'm not a proponent of 5G, the fact is: It does *NOT* cause COVID-19: COVID (which is an abbreviation for *Co*rona *Vi*rus *D*isease) is caused by a virus, SARS-CoV-2. Microwave frequency radiation does not cause viruses.
> .



Are you sure???


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## eagledad (Apr 11, 2020)

Gentlemen

I find this website of great use if you are interested in the latest CV-19 data

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,715,580 Cases and 103,841 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

This site has data for the countries of the world. If one is interested in US state data. click on the USA link and you will get data by state.

FYI

Eagledad

*

 DerAdlerIstGelandet
*

Am continuing to pray for your complete recovery and continued protection for you and your family.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2020)

Live patient update...

Woke up today feeling much better. Cough appears to have gone away, or diminished. Chest tightness has also diminished. See how it goes the rest of the day. 

My Dr. tells me that at least 7 days, plus 3 days no fever or symptoms, and I should be good to go. So maybe be Monday without any setbacks.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 11, 2020)

IF you stand close enough to a 5G transmitter, for long enough time, ALL your Corona Viruses will be dead! Guaranteed!

(and you'll be Medium Rare!)

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## swampyankee (Apr 11, 2020)

One of the problems politicians have asking any STEM-related questions is that most of them have no better -- and frequently worse -- STEM backgrounds than the journalists. Unless they are well-advised, intelligent, and -- the most likely problem -- sensible enough to defer to experts (or at least say "I don't know the answer to that question; here's my STEM expert" or "I don't know the answer to that; I'll have my staff get back to you" _and follows up_) -- they and their supporters are just going to scream that they're being set up by the hateful media.

One of the side effects of the rise of highly nationalistic leaders is that many of them are also very attached to traditional values of obedience to authority, devaluation of the individual, antipathy to science, and firm belief in the rights and privileges of traditional social elites.

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## fubar57 (Apr 11, 2020)



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## Crimea_River (Apr 11, 2020)

Ah, but the seat is still intact.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 11, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 577032​


It's an Ikea!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2020)

What is making this so difficult is that we are in middle of allergy season. I have 5 cherry trees (not the edible kind) and 2 oak trees in my yard. The ground, and windows are covered in a green/yellow polen.

My Dr. told me that until my cough is gone I cannot leave quarantine. My cough is so mild and infrequent now that I cannot tell if it is coronavirus related, or because of the polen. This could last for weeks.

The only way to defeat this is through mass testing. Additionally we need to stop telling people in press conferences that there are plenty of tests. Its just another lie.

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## Marcel (Apr 11, 2020)

Problem here is that with the monopoly of Roche in hospital labs, the tests are scarce as Roche cannot supply everyone fast enough. The ones using BioRad tests don’t have that problem, but AFAIK only Groningen hospital uses that.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Problem here is that with the monopoly of Roche in hospital labs, the tests are scarce as Roche cannot supply everyone fast enough. The ones using BioRad tests don’t have that problem, but AFAIK only Groningen hospital uses that.



I have no clue what kind they use here. Just keeping people in the dark...


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## rochie (Apr 11, 2020)

917 more deaths in UK in last 24 hours.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 11, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST), 11th April
cases 152,271, new 4,694, deaths 19,468, new 619, recovered 32,534, new 2,079, tests 963,473, new 56,609
fatality rate 12.8%
mortality rate 323 per million
test rate 16 per thousand
test rate today 939 per million


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## mikewint (Apr 11, 2020)




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## Marcel (Apr 11, 2020)

For us, the amount of ICU patients is levelling out, it’s neither significantly increased, nor decreased. Seems like we reached our peak, well below the maximum capacity, which is good. Death toll today was about 160, well below last weeks average of 250 per day. I’m hopeful that we are in an upward slope again.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 11, 2020)

This was pretty interesting, they are testing waste water to measure the true extent of its spread. Unless this multiplies in waste water, its pretty ingenious. 

New research looks at wastewater to detect community spread of Covid-19

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## Marcel (Apr 11, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> This was pretty interesting, they are testing waste water to measure the true extent of its spread. Unless this multiplies in waste water, its pretty ingenious.
> 
> New research looks at wastewater to detect community spread of Covid-19


It’s been found in wastewater here as well.


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## at6 (Apr 11, 2020)

Can we have all of the media types swim in drink the waste water? Plus we could send them to a facility with no ventilators when they get infected as they would be no loss. The I. Q. levels would greatly increase.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 11, 2020)

Methinks part of the problem is we're living in a soundbite world. Like the rest of us, journalists have become accustomed to just quoting the latest tweet or headline-grabbing comment. 

Unfortunately, we're living through a long-term issue with no reliable estimate for how long it will go on. Eventually, you just run out of questions to ask...but journalists are paid to keep asking questions, so they do (even if the questions become inane and unanswerable).

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## fubar57 (Apr 11, 2020)

As mentioned elsewhere, my favorite daily question is, "Where do you think we'll be in a week from now?"


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## ThomasP (Apr 11, 2020)

Hey fubar57,

Are you sure? My records show that there should be 29,834 parts...

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## MiTasol (Apr 11, 2020)

From todays ProMed daily report (I edited out about 75% and just left the prologue and findings summary)

[4] Obesity as risk factor for severe disease
Date: Fri 10 Apr 2020
Source: Clinical Infectious Diseases [edited]
<*https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa415/5818333*>


ref: Lighter J, Phillips M, Hochman S, et al. Obesity in patients
younger than 60 years is a risk factor for COVID-19 hospital
admission. Clin Infect Dis. 2020. pii: ciaa415. doi:
10.1093/cid/ciaa415. [Epub ahead of print]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Letter to the Editor:
Risk factors for infectious disease severity are determined by the
pathogen, host and environment [1]. COVID-19 disease, caused by
SARS-CoV-2 infection includes a spectrum of illness; from asymptomatic
infection [2] to severe pneumonia characterized by acute respiratory
injury in about 20% of patients presenting to medical care [3]. The
risk factors associated with disease severity, included increased age,
diabetes, immune suppression and organ failure [3]. Recognition of
risk factors for morbidity and mortality is important to determine
prevention strategies as well as to target high-risk populations for
potential therapeutics.

Though patients younger than 60 years are generally considered a lower
risk group of COVID-19 disease severity, based on data from our
institution, obesity appears to be a previously unrecognized risk
factor for hospital admission and need for critical care. This has
important and practical implications, where nearly 40% of adults in
the US are obese with a BMI equal to or greater than 30 [4]. The BMI
range of individuals in this study appears representative of the
nation, as 36% of the patients have a BMI of 30 or higher. There is
geographic variation in reported mortality, as South Korea, China, and
Italy report case fatality rates of 0.8, 2.3, and 7.2, respectively
[5] and regional risk factors such as prevalence of smoking,
pollution, or aging population has been cited. Unfortunately, obesity
in people younger than 60 years is a newly identified epidemiologic
risk factor which may contribute to increased morbidity rates
experienced in the US.

*[References and table available at the source URL above]*


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## rochie (Apr 11, 2020)

Todays stupid question at the UK's daily briefing led by the Home Secretary.

"Where have you been for the last 3weeks ?

As if she's been sat at home awol doing nothing.......

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## swampyankee (Apr 11, 2020)

at6 said:


> Can we have all of the media types swim in drink the waste water? Plus we could send them to a facility with no ventilators when they get infected as they would be no loss. The I. Q. levels would greatly increase.




Let’s try this with YEC politicians and those other politicians who think an MBA encompasses all knowledge.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What is making this so difficult is that we are in middle of allergy season. I have 5 cherry trees (not the edible kind) and 2 oak trees in my yard. The ground, and windows are covered in a green/yellow polen.
> 
> My Dr. told me that until my cough is gone I cannot leave quarantine. My cough is so mild and infrequent now that I cannot tell if it is coronavirus related, or because of the polen. This could last for weeks.
> 
> The only way to defeat this is through mass testing. Additionally we need to stop telling people in press conferences that there are plenty of tests. Its just another lie.



Sir, I believe there's some fairly good HEPA room purifiers available. And given that your lung cilia are currently not happy, it might help your recovery and reduce the chance of infection.

Might want to run that by your Doc.

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## ThomasP (Apr 11, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 11
cases 1,427, recovered 793, hospitalized 340, deaths 64, tested 35,404*
fatality rate 4.5%
mortality rate 11.2 per million
tests rate 6.2 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## at6 (Apr 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> As mentioned elsewhere, my favorite daily question is, "Where do you think we'll be in a week from now?"


Hopefully, still here and alive.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> "Where do you think we'll be in a week from now?"


Still trying to get my GD house (that I bought last summer) livable - plagues be damned.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 12, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) 12th April
cases 156,363, new 4,092, deaths 19,899, new 431, recovered 34,211, new 1,677*, tests 1,010,193, new 46,720, * yesterday South Tyrol wrongly reported 110 more recovered, so today actually are 1787
fatality rate 12.7% (0.1* less of yesterday, if i remember right it's first time, *actually less for rounding)
mortality rate 330 per million
test rate 16.7 per thousand
today test rare 775 per million

adding 4th case in my town, the wife of the 3rd

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## jetcal1 (Apr 12, 2020)

Deleted. Posted on another thread!


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## ThomasP (Apr 12, 2020)

My fingers are crossed Vincenzo (ie wishing Italy the best of luck).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 12, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) 12th April
> cases 156,363, new 4,092, deaths 19,899, new 431, recovered 34,211, new 1,677*, tests 1,010,193, new 46,720, * yesterday South Tyrol wrongly reported 110 more recovered, so today actually are 1787
> fatality rate 12.7% (0.1* less of yesterday, if i remember right it's first time, *actually less for rounding)
> mortality rate 330 per million
> ...



It looks like you guys might be on the other side of the curve now though. 431 new deaths is substantially lower than yesterdays 619. Fewer new infections as well. Let’s hope this trend continues.

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## fubar57 (Apr 12, 2020)

Take care Vincenzo

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## michaelmaltby (Apr 12, 2020)

.... years ago City of Rome tested waste water and Tiber River water and discovered to their dismay that the citizenry liked cocaine . really like cocaine. 
Such testing will be key going forward


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## at6 (Apr 12, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> .... years ago City of Rome tested waste water and Tiber River water and discovered to their dismay that the citizenry liked cocaine . really like cocaine.
> Such testing will be key going forward


So are we going to snort the Tiber?

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## nsmekanik (Apr 13, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 577032​





ThomasP said:


> Hey fubar57,
> 
> Are you sure? My records show that there should be 29,834 parts...



My car has 2 parts.......me and it, 3 if you count the oil change specialist.

Rumor has it the plant is running 160 short inside, this does not mean there is 160 cases or even 1 for that matter, but everyone gets a temp reading before entering the premises. In one of those rarities we all got an actual long weekend this weekend, normally there is no such thing as a long weekend at Cargil, or every weekend is a long weekend, depending on how you look at it. What it means I don't know, but considering how things have been dragging along and that we were supposed to be working every weekend maybe a sign of things having slowed down. 

On the other hand the local grocery store is as busy as it's ever been, considering that much of the population was shopping else where before it's probably a boon for them. It appears that the grocery stores the next town up are also doing a fair business as well. How that relates to things at the plant I'm not sure as a lot of the production heads south of the border. The big box stores are open, Canadian Tire is offering curbside pick up with the option to order online or via email and I think by phone. Nobody is doing cash where we have been, took wifey out for an A&W snack and went through the drive through, nice to see her scrubbing the debit machine right after we used it. Of the few places we have gone to they have all the floors marked out and the plexiglass barriers up and the staff wearing gloves, no dining in although it is possible to go in and order in the fast food places. As much as I'd like to go pick up a few things at the hardware store('s) I've decided to not bother at this time and limit ourselves to the grocery store and the occasional coffee outing. 

We've all been avoiding Mother like the plague lately, she's 80+ and lives alone still at home, the deal is if she needs something done I'll come over and do it, but we won't get close. As far as I am concerned I'd hate to go for a visit and 2 days later come down with the symptoms, that would kill me faster then the disease. Fortunately she's stocked up and has enough to keep herself occupied, but I know she misses her outings and visits. Her reaction to the Johns Hopkins thingy.


> I can see that the internet can really distort so called info. Almost criminal activity. I don't like it.



Paying very little attention to the media as they are like a pack of hyenas circling a carcass in my opinion.

You all stay healthy and stay safe.

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## MiTasol (Apr 13, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> My car has 2 parts.......me and it, 3 if you count the oil change specialist.
> 
> Rumor has it the plant is running 160 short inside, this does not mean there is 160 cases or even 1 for that matter, but everyone gets a temp reading before entering the premises. In one of those rarities we all got an actual long weekend this weekend, normally there is no such thing as a long weekend at Cargil, or every weekend is a long weekend, depending on how you look at it. What it means I don't know, but considering how things have been dragging along and that we were supposed to be working every weekend maybe a sign of things having slowed down.
> 
> ...



What have you got against hyenas? *They *are an important part of the food chain in the wild. On the other hand the media are getting less important by the day


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## rochie (Apr 13, 2020)

The BBC was putting out race angled stories about the virus yesterday 

And lots of mentions of medical supply stock being low, well I'm not an expert but if just about the whole world is using more of everything stock levels will be lower !
Never actually said anything had ran out, just trying to spread fear and discontent i believe!


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2020)

rochie said:


> The BBC was putting out race angled stories about the virus yesterday


But of course, racial/ethnic minorities are always going to get the short end of the stick, become sicker by the numbers, and be seen as threats to public health. Ugly but true.

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## rochie (Apr 13, 2020)

Thats a very sad way of looking at things

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## destrozas (Apr 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Have they confirmed that those recovered have immunity?



I tell you what health says after a small study from the Carlos III university that works as a research center on covid here in Spain, those cured in their blood have antibodies to eviatr recontagiate, but they cannot assure the lasting or lasting immunity of the virus it is very new and the studies must spend more time, in order to have a long-term study.



Marcel said:


> Here they found that people with mild symptomes had considerably less amount of anti-bodies in their blood. Not sure what it means, yet, but it might be that less symptomes correlate with a lower level of immunity.



In some studies that the Spanish administration works that have presented and placed it open to have access to whoever they want, they say that the sars2 virus has been with us for a while, although it was not infectious for humans, that there is certain tolerance to the virus for a certain type of people, they are doing studies in 800 cases of people who have not presented symptoms (asymptomatic) and mild symptoms to see what may be what makes them so and not catch it. doing a study of the medications and diseases that have happened in case it was something prior that was inoculated.
being new everything is all study and trials.

keep everyone safe and take care, if you can follow the advice of the OMS

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2020)

destrozas said:


> I tell you what health says after a small study from the Carlos III university that works as a research center on covid here in Spain, those cured in their blood have antibodies to eviatr recontagiate, but they cannot assure the lasting or lasting immunity of the virus it is very new and the studies must spend more time, in order to have a long-term study.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Here they are saying that it has not not been verified that they have immunity when the revover, but it is a good possibility that they do for at least a few months.


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## destrozas (Apr 13, 2020)

spain sars-cov 2 pandemic estatistics today

Total infected: 169469 infected yesterday: 3477
total deaths: 17489 deaths yesterday: 517
Total healed: 64,727 Healed yesterday: 2,336
3.05% increase in deaths compared to Sunday
2.09% increase in infections compared to Sunday

death rate by age
+80 years 21.5%
70-79 10.7%
60-69 3.45%
50-59 1.01%
40-49 0.47%

20,000 daily tests in addition to those carried out in nursing homes that are about 75,000 daily. to date, 7 million tests of symptomatic and sick people, 65,000 tests in 13 communities of population without symptoms for an epidemiological study of asymptomatic and control of healed without symptoms.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 13, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> My car has 2 parts.......me and it, 3 if you count the oil change specialist.
> 
> Rumor has it the plant is running 160 short inside, this does not mean there is 160 cases or even 1 for that matter, but everyone gets a temp reading before entering the premises. In one of those rarities we all got an actual long weekend this weekend, normally there is no such thing as a long weekend at Cargil, or every weekend is a long weekend, depending on how you look at it. What it means I don't know, but considering how things have been dragging along and that we were supposed to be working every weekend maybe a sign of things having slowed down.
> 
> ...



You too Tim. Are there any known cases in Nanton? I mean COVID cases, not nut cases!


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 13, 2020)

I though in Japan and Korea they noted a number of people who got it again.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 13, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> I though in Japan and Korea they noted a number of people who got it again.


After how long an interval?


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2020)

rochie said:


> Thats a very sad way of looking at things


I agree, very sad, but it's the elephant in the living room and won't go away by tiptoeing around it. A natural effect of the tribalization of our societies today which I lay at the feet of social media, the consolidation of "big journalism", and economic stratification of society. There's not much that any one of us can do alone about those forces, but we can all reach out to our neighbors, give up a little of our expensive "privacy" to those less fortunate than we, and make sure "social" distancing is purely physical, not cultural, economic, or social. I've got several neighbors who lean rather hard to the right hand end of the spectrum, but who are actually pretty decent folks when you get to know them. Despite being born and raised in the same geographical area, they've grown up in a different world than I did, largely due to the economics of their neighborhoods. Second only to public health and safety, our priority should be re-establishing a sense of community with those we disagree with and getting outside our individual hall of mirrors. If we all try we can light the candle at the end of the tunnel.
Cheers,
Wes


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## Vincenzo (Apr 13, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST), 13th April
cases 159,516, new 3,153, deaths 20,465, new 566, recovered 35,435, new 1,224, tests 1,046,910, new 36,717* * both yesterday and today in Italy are Holyday
fatality rate 12.8%
mortality rate 339 per million
test rate 17.4 per thousand
test rate today 609 per million

Lombardy extends the quarantine for the positives to 4 weeks

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## mikewint (Apr 13, 2020)

It seems to me that the "Antibody Test" (whichever version get off the ground) will in and of itself create a new minority, i.e. the immune and the non-immune.
How are you going to mix the two in the work place, for example. They were talking a while ago about a "certification" that you were immune and could therefore return to your job


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> I though in Japan and Korea they noted a number of people who got it again.



It’s all really unknown at this point.

1. The test that said they were cured could have been false.

2. The virus could have been dormant.

3. The test may be picking non-active remnants of the virus and reporting a positive.

4. They could have been re-infected and there is no immunity.

Who knows at this point.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2020)

mikewint said:


> It seems to me that the "Antibody Test" (whichever version get off the ground) will in and of itself create a new minority, i.e. the immune and the non-immune.
> How are you going to mix the two in the work place, for example. They were talking a while ago about a "certification" that you were immune and could therefore return to your job



Accept for that to work, you have to know if there is actual immunity. I can see that aspect of being totally ignored just to “open back up”.

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## pgeno71 (Apr 13, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I agree, very sad, but it's the elephant in the living room and won't go away by tiptoeing around it. A natural effect of the tribalization of our societies today which I lay at the feet of social media, the consolidation of "big journalism", and economic stratification of society. There's not much that any one of us can do alone about those forces, but we can all reach out to our neighbors, give up a little of our expensive "privacy" to those less fortunate than we, and make sure "social" distancing is purely physical, not cultural, economic, or social. I've got several neighbors who lean rather hard to the right hand end of the spectrum, but who are actually pretty decent folks when you get to know them. Despite being born and raised in the same geographical area, they've grown up in a different world than I did, largely due to the economics of their neighborhoods. Second only to public health and safety, our priority should be re-establishing a sense of community with those we disagree with and getting outside our individual hall of mirrors. If we all try we can light the candle at the end of the tunnel.
> Cheers,
> Wes



There are also some specifics that contribute to the higher percentages of African-American cases and death. Black folks tend to have a higher percentage of underlying conditions, especially diabetes. Secondly, a higher percentage of African-Americans live in densely-populated cities, which are the hardest hit areas. These are measurable faxts. The theories/reasons for the heath and demographic disparities are beyond the scope of what I want to say on the forum, as per the rule not delve into political/partisan discussions. 

Take care evey one and stay safe.


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## swampyankee (Apr 13, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> But of course, racial/ethnic minorities are always going to get the short end of the stick, become sicker by the numbers, and be seen as threats to public health. Ugly but true.



Ugly, true, and frequently used to political advantage, most often and most egregiously by nationalist movements, but history is full of political movements who have come to prominence specifically by demonizing ethnic minorities. Examples abound, but there are a lot in the US, such as all the Dixiecrats and their current ideological descendants.

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## pgeno71 (Apr 13, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Ugly, true, and frequently used to political advantage, most often and most egregiously by nationalist movements, but history is full of political movements who have come to prominence specifically by demonizing ethnic minorities. Examples abound, but there are a lot in the US, such as all the Dixiecrats and their current ideological descendants.



Not to mention all those "good" liberals in the north that used relining to prevent African-Americans from moving out of the cities and diverted investment out of urban areas as they voted in JFK and LBJ.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> The theories/reasons for the heath and demographic disparities are beyond the scope of what I want to say on the forum, as per the rule not delve into political/partisan discussions.


No need to delve into the theories/reasons. They're pretty well known at this point.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Not to mention all those "good" liberals in the north that used relining to prevent African-Americans from moving out of the cities and diverted investment out of urban areas as they voted in JFK and LBJ.


Caution! The MASTER WARNING light is flashing, the POLITICAL telltale is lit, and the guard is up on the EMERG SHUTDOWN toggle!

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## swampyankee (Apr 13, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Not to mention all those "good" liberals in the north that used relining to prevent African-Americans from moving out of the cities and diverted investment out of urban areas as they voted in JFK and LBJ.



If you really want to get into the history of redlining, I would take that off line.

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## Marcel (Apr 13, 2020)

Caution, guys, I don't think you want to go further into that topic. Please go back on track.

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## mikewint (Apr 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> you have to know if there is actual immunity.


That would be nice but any/all lab tests have false pos/neg results. The coming important/critical factor will be having that little "certified immune" card allowing that person to return to work while the non-immune is barred from the workplace. I also see another scenario:
So Chris suppose you and I were equally qualified or even that I had more qualifications than you and we were in line for the same position/job. You've had Covid (most likely) and again, most likely would test POS for the antibodies thus you get the card. Who do you think would get the job? The immune person who's not going to get sick and take off or the non-immune.
The only hope the non-infected will have is when a vaccine is developed at some point in the future, maybe-we-hope


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## pbehn (Apr 13, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> No need to delve into the theories/reasons. They're pretty well known at this point.


They are just theories as far as the UK is concerned. Almost everyone gets the same health care and details of deaths isn't know. The Press are reporting all sorts of things based on their usual agenda, saying "this community has been adversely affected". There have been various "communities" affected but the main connection seems to be that they are communities who meet and greet each other regularly, or do jobs that puts them meeting more people than average.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Caution! The MASTER WARNING light is flashing, the POLITICAL telltale is lit, and the guard is up on the EMERG SHUTDOWN toggle!



Smart man, tread lightly everyone.

One thing I hate more than anything is this bullshit liberal vs. conservative division crap. That is the stuff of SHEEP. It has no place in this forum, let alone our country. Those who do have fallen in the trap of their “masters” as they want a divided population, because a divided one is powerless.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> this bullshit liberal vs. conservative division crap. That is the stuff of SHEEP. It has no place in this forum, let alone our country. Those who do have fallen in the trap of their “masters” as they want a divided population because a divided one is powerless.


 Der Adler speak truth. Masters speak with forked tongue. Great Spirit say bury hatchet.

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## pbehn (Apr 13, 2020)

I don't how things are in the States around sport, but our lot here are in complete denial. Wimbledon has just been formally called off, as if it could possibly go ahead. The Football Association (soccer) have just said they will make Wembley and St Georges available as "neutral grounds", if there are no spectators then all grounds are neutral grounds and they are both in London, why would anyone want to schedule anything in London? I cant see any big sporting events going ahead until there is a vaccine and treatments that are known to work yet they are still whistling in the wind here talking about "finishing off the season"? No one seems to be able to get their head around the idea that spectator sport of any kind cant be considered ATM and events like the Olympics and World Cups in Soccer Rugby Cricket Handball F1 etc may be a thing of the past, or stopped for a year or two at least.

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## MiTasol (Apr 13, 2020)

mikewint said:


> That would be nice but any/all lab tests have false pos/neg results. The coming important/critical factor will be having that little "certified immune" card allowing that person to return to work while the non-immune is barred from the workplace. I also see another scenario:
> So Chris suppose you and I were equally qualified or even that I had more qualifications than you and we were in line for the same position/job. You've had Covid (most likely) and again, most likely would test POS for the antibodies thus you get the card. Who do you think would get the job? The immune person who's not going to get sick and take off or the non-immune.
> The only hope the non-infected will have is when a vaccine is developed at some point in the future, maybe-we-hope



One thing that is appearing in the press, and in general the press at present is so desperate for a scoop that what they print is about as reliable as wikipedia, is that it appears that this disease affects different people very differently. It appears that some people get primarily a breathing illness and others get primarily a blood illness like malaria and others of course are asymptomatic. 

This suggests to me that 

finding a cure or vaccine is going to be a very difficult task as it must deal with at least three variable outcomes in those affected and/or
there may well be one or more factors such as genetics or blood group that dictate which "reaction" an infected person will get and/or
diet may be a factor, and/or
it is mutating far faster than the influenza virus which we still have no effective vaccine for (only a series of vaccines against previous versions)
I hope I am wrong because that scenario means this "new normal" is going to be around for several years.

Hopefully Gnomey or some other medical expert will be able to provide a clue on where we are headed but with his current work load I suspect he is totally focused on the here and now, not considering some future where he can relax his focus


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## nsmekanik (Apr 13, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> You too Tim. Are there any known cases in Nanton? I mean COVID cases, not nut cases!



Nut Cases are rampant everywhere here and there






No cases in Nanton I'm aware of, BUT, there is one case in the long term care unit of the High River Hospital, and several staff who have tested positive who may or may not live in the community, High River online, My sister works part time there and is now in self isolation, though she hasn't indicated wether or not she tested positive.

Also the High River 7-11 (a convenience store), , "has been placed on lock down after an employee tested positive for COVID-19. It is being recommended that anyone who visited the convenience store between March 29th - April 10th take the Government of Alberta's self-assessment test. The store has been closed for cleaning and will re-open on the 25th of April." High River online.

Just got a text this morning from the head cheese not to come in tonight and maybe not for a few days, the rumor is that the plant may shut down for 2 weeks. which may be related, as guess where a lot of people stop for their morning coffee.........including the head cheese, with whom I share a truck.......Good Times





Happy I decided not to visit me Mum


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## gumbyk (Apr 13, 2020)

We're currently at 1349 cases, with 5 deaths (3 from one rest home)
19 new cases in the last 24 hours, with 75 new recovered cases.

Looks like we may be getting on top of this and actually be able to eliminate it from New Zealand.

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## rochie (Apr 13, 2020)

pbehn said:


> They are just theories as far as the UK is concerned. Almost everyone gets the same health care and details of deaths isn't know. The Press are reporting all sorts of things based on their usual agenda, saying "this community has been adversely affected". There have been various "communities" affected but the main connection seems to be that they are communities who meet and greet each other regularly, or do jobs that puts them meeting more people than average.


which was the point i was trying to make.


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## nsmekanik (Apr 13, 2020)

Update, just got another text, it seems that to many are getting the virus, implying that a few inside workers are positive. as it is what I'm aware of is 1 CFIA (Canadian food inspection agency) worker is positive and the 7-11 worker also worked as a cleaner at the plant. Not unlikely to be getting an early vacation.


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## fubar57 (Apr 13, 2020)

That's hitting pretty close to home Tim. Take care


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## nsmekanik (Apr 13, 2020)

It was only a matter of time I think. You all take care too.


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## nsmekanik (Apr 13, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> What have you got against hyenas? *They *are an important part of the food chain in the wild. On the other hand the media are getting less important by the day


you do have a point........


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## pbehn (Apr 13, 2020)

rochie said:


> which was the point i was trying to make.


I know, but so far in UK it has infected Charles and his wife, Boris and his fiancé, it has affected London's Jewish community and its Muslim community. It has basically infected a lot of communities, like the horse racing community that went to Cheltenham for their annual booze up. You cannot make a case for it targetting the poor when such people are infected, it is a virus, it will propagate anywhere, and doesn't care about the UKs political or economic system. Some are making an issue about bus and train drivers on Londons transport system, but a train driver on the tube doesn't meet his passengers and a bus driver doesn't go as close to the passengers as the passengers do to each other.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 13, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> Nut Cases are rampant everywhere here and there
> View attachment 577349
> 
> 
> ...



Just watched the 6 o-clock news. Something going on at Cargill it seems. Hope you stay safe Tim.


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## at6 (Apr 13, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> What have you got against hyenas? *They *are an important part of the food chain in the wild. On the other hand the media are getting less important by the day


A little tough, but they can be tasty as well.


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## at6 (Apr 13, 2020)

I saw where some one got the "ANTI-BODY " treatment and still died. It would seem the "cured" may yet still not be immune after all.


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## swampyankee (Apr 13, 2020)

The best estimate, by the competent, is that testing a vaccine to see if it's safe and effective takes at least a year. It's one of those tasks that can't be sped up no matter how much money is thrown at it: it takes time to sequence genomes (far less than it used to), time to produce test samples, time to test them, time to scale up to mass production (making the few hundred vaccine doses for testing can be done by a well-equipped lab. PhDs, grad students, and professors using lab equipment aren't a workable method to produce hundreds of millions of doses.) It will further take time to determine if the vaccine will invoke long-term immunity. The vaccine is likely to use just the virus' protein shell, so it's not likely to produce disease, but that also has to be ruled out (iirc, the 1976 swine flu -- A/Victoria/75 (H3N2) vaccine was implicated in causing Guillain–Barré syndrome. The causal link is, however, quite suspect.)

It's not like producing each year's flu vaccine. There are three or four strains of flu that are the dominant causes of disease (see Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine each year's vaccine uses different mixes of the most recent available varieties of these strains. 

As for minority groups? Many times minority communities have ancestral connections to heavily persecuted communities in their home countries. Even if they live in highly egalitarian, prejudice-free countries (which don't exist), they will be very distrustful of laws to restrict movement and association.


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## wuzak (Apr 14, 2020)

at6 said:


> I saw where some one got the "ANTI-BODY " treatment and still died. It would seem the "cured" may yet still not be immune after all.



Antibody treatment?

I thought they were just testing for antibodies to determine if an individual has had the infection?


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## MiTasol (Apr 14, 2020)

I have seen several medical discussions on extracting antibodies from blood plasma and injecting them into patients. 
I have not seen any that say it has actually been done though several media reports inferred that had been done and not gone well. The only thing I noted in the medical discussions was that the quantity of antibodies varies considerably depending on the level of infection the donor experienced. Asymptomatic almost zero antibodies, non ICU more but still not many, up to almost died and loaded with antibodies. As far as I know the viability of the various antibodies for medical use is still being researched. I have not seen any indications that the antibodies are identical between patients, unlikely given the wide range of symptoms, or of the same strength. 
The other item was that women had less antibodies which may be related to the fact that, as a rule of thumb, two out of every three deaths are male. Another variable to research and, outside of China, we are only 12-14 weeks into this problem so there are still far more questions than confirmed answers. I know it feels like 12-14 months already to many but we are still what an author might call the prologue of the story.


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## rochie (Apr 14, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I know, but so far in UK it has infected Charles and his wife, Boris and his fiancé, it has affected London's Jewish community and its Muslim community. It has basically infected a lot of communities, like the horse racing community that went to Cheltenham for their annual booze up. You cannot make a case for it targetting the poor when such people are infected, it is a virus, it will propagate anywhere, and doesn't care about the UKs political or economic system. Some are making an issue about bus and train drivers on Londons transport system, but a train driver on the tube doesn't meet his passengers and a bus driver doesn't go as close to the passengers as the passengers do to each other.


Bingo !

The BBC were running with 14%of UK is of ethnic minorities yet there is a higher percentage of that community effected (big headline)

Then buried in the story, were possible reasons of, bigger multi generational families, vast majority of cases in London where the those same ethinic minorities account for 40% of the population etc which skews the figures !

Labour party now screaming for an inquiry already.

Not enough news to report so lets just stir up fear and resentment


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## at6 (Apr 14, 2020)

This virus may never have a vaccine. Just what the hell did China create?


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## nsmekanik (Apr 14, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Just watched the 6 o-clock news. Something going on at Cargill it seems. Hope you stay safe Tim.



Were you watching the CBC, I looked it up and watched it myself, 38 inside workers, first I've heard of it. but it goes with the rumor of 160 short inside. Looks like they've cut out the afternoon/night shift which would explain why I'm not working, I guess I'm going to have to have a chat with the owner of our company if it looks like this is going to continue outside of a few days.

I think to give an idea how the foreign workers/immigrants are affecting things this map might help, The Province







You will notice that the highest concentration of cases is in the Calgary area, this area has the highest concentration of foreign/immigrant workers, and the majority of workers at the Cargil plant I work at fit into that, many commute from Calgary. Many of these individuals travel abroad to visit friends and family and are as, if not more so in some cases, lacking good hygiene habits with an attitude that goes with ignoring such things as self isolating etc. If this comes across as a little biased or prejudiced, then I suggest you go and have a chat with some truck stop personal who have to clean up the washrooms and showers. Some ethnic groups are worse then others. Fortunately they are putting things in place to monitor and enforce many of the requirements to reduce the spread, but I think it is doing us all a disservice not identifying these groups as understanding the demographics is very important in understanding the hows and whys this pandemic is spreading the way it is. It's not prejudice, it's just the facts Mam.

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## nsmekanik (Apr 14, 2020)

at6 said:


> This virus may never have a vaccine. Just what the hell did China create?



There is hope on the radar Global news

Entos Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is developing a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 infections — and it could be ready in less than a year.
The Edmonton-based company is led by Dr. John Lewis, a University of Alberta researcher who is world-renowned for his team’s work on prostate cancer detection, progression and drug delivery.
Entos is creating a DNA-based vaccine which would protect against multiple components of the new coronavirus for “maximum protection.”
Unlike a traditional vaccine which gives patients a weakened or inactive virus to provoke an immune response, Lewis said the Entos product would deliver battle instructions.
“We can just give the DNA instructions for our own cells to make [novel coronavirus] proteins, to make part of the virus, and then have our body create our own therapeutic vaccine,” Lewis told Global News.
The Entos CEO says the method, named Fusogenix, has several advantages: stronger defense, a more stable vaccine and the ability to make a lot of product quickly. 
The company plans to have a candidate vaccine ready within a few weeks, and is now in talks with potential partners to fast-track it to human trials. 
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday that Canada is spending $192 million on developing and producing vaccines for the new coronavirus.
Trudeau said being prepared to mass-produce a vaccine will be essential for suppressing COVID-19 in the long run.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 14, 2020)

Back on the german study of 0.37% fatality rate, this one https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...chenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

they report in the first analysis the results from 500 people (not a statistical sample) of this 14% has the antibodies and 2% has the coronavirus, so in raw number 70 and 10, after they report a fatality rate of 0.37% so 0.296 deaths but this is very strange or there is a death in the sample or there is not
someones can clear this point?


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## Crimea_River (Apr 14, 2020)

Tim, that map says nothing about sources and I disagree with your assertion that this is due to immigrants and foreign workers. If you have facts to back up your claim then let's see 'em. The reason, in my opinion, that the Calgary zone has the most cases is that this city is a corporate hub with a large international airport.

As I see it, the source of the disease and its spread in Canada is due to ALL international and domestic travel (remember March break?) that continued uninterrupted for some time after this disease was already established in BC and Ontario.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 14, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) 14th April
cases 162,488, new 2,972, deaths 21,067, new 602, recovered 37,130, new 1,695, tests 1,073,689, new 26,779* * very low number, lower since 30th March
fatality rate 13%
mortality rate 349 per million
test rate 17.8 per thousand
test rate today 444 per million

adding infos from news, the 55% of italian workes is working, 65% of people go in ICU in Lombardy survived


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## Marcel (Apr 14, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> There is hope on the radar Global news
> 
> Entos Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is developing a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 infections — and it could be ready in less than a year.
> The Edmonton-based company is led by Dr. John Lewis, a University of Alberta researcher who is world-renowned for his team’s work on prostate cancer detection, progression and drug delivery.
> ...


Gene therapy, within weeks, really?

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 14, 2020)

Not sure which I am scared more of.


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## Marcel (Apr 14, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Not sure which I am scared more of.


Afaik it’s never been effective to use such a technique, but I’m not up to speed with the latest developments.


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## ThomasP (Apr 14, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 13
cases 1,650, recovered 842**, hospitalized 361**, deaths 70**, tested 38,427*
fatality rate 4.3%**
mortality rate 12.3 per million**
tests rate 6.7 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
<
<
Minnesota report, April 14
cases 1,695, recovered 909, hospitalized 405, deaths 79, tested 39,241*
fatality rate 4.7%
mortality rate 13.9 per million
tests rate 6.9 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Marked stats are due to temporary failure of recording system, resulting in incomplete update data and giving a false zig in the curve between 12, 13 and 14 April.


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## nsmekanik (Apr 14, 2020)

I've deleted the part of my previous post as I think it wasn't written very well and failed to convey the message I intended. Insteasd I'll just leave this here

My wife, whom Andy has met, wicked Welsh wench that she is, is an immigrant, her Father has immigrated twice.


City news 
*Canada's 'colourblind' coronavirus data could leave officials blind to racial inequities*
by Kelvin Gawley

Posted Apr 7, 2020 6:45 pm PDT

Last Updated Apr 8, 2020 at 8:50 am PDT

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Black Canadians are almost certainly getting sick and dying from the coronavirus at a disproportionate rate – but without the data to quantify the problem, it cannot be properly addressed, some experts and advocates say.
Canada is “operating in the blind,” according to June Francis, director of Simon Fraser University’s Institute for Diaspora Research and Engagement.
B.C. and the federal government have not released ethnic or racial data related to COVID-19.

*‘Colourblind’ data could leave inequities unaddressed*
“Black people are likely to face the very worst outcomes of this crisis, and without having the data, it’s hard for public policy to respond in specific ways to address the needs of particularly vulnerable populations,” said Francis, who is also co-chair of Hogan’s Alley Society, a non-profit working to revitalize the former hub of Vancouver’s black community in the Strathcona neighbourhood.

She said Canadians of African descent are at higher risk of contracting and dying from COVID-19 for a multitude of reasons: Higher rates of poverty correlated with crowded housing and an inability to stay home from work; over-representation in front-line work, including delivery, retail and in care homes; higher rates of underlying health conditions such as diabetes; and distrust of medical authorities based on previous experiences of racism.
Where data exists in the U.S., African Americans have been shown to be contracting and dying of COVID-19 at higher rates than the general population. A quarter of Milwaukee County’s population is black but half the sick and 81 per cent of the dead have been African American, according to Pro Publica, which reported similarly disproportionate rates elsewhere in the country.

Francis said she suspects the numbers are similar in Canada for both black and Indigenous people, but the lack of information from health officials make it impossible to prove.

She said the lack of demographic data is indicative of a common but misguided idea that Canadians and Canadian society are “colourblind” – blind to race and therefore not racist.

“The systems that we are operating in are not colourblind. They operate to disadvantage us. When you do not acknowledge that, when you decide that it doesn’t exist, then it cannot be addressed,” Francis said.

“It doesn’t go away just because you wish it away.”

Francis said many Canadians are well-intentioned but nevertheless unconsciously perpetuate systemic racism. If they are confronted with hard numbers that lay bare their society’s inequities, they are more likely to confront their implicit biases, she said.

“I have a feeling … that when we see the data, we would respond in appropriate ways to really help achieve this colourblind society that we all seek.”


But simply collecting and publishing such data should not be considered an end in and of itself, according to Farah Shroff, a professor at the UBC’s school of population and public health.

“I have been a researcher who works from a feminist, anti-racism perspective for a few decades and I’m not necessarily somebody who is an advocate for more race-based data,” she said.

The U.S. has some of the most robust and sophisticated demographic data related to HIV and other diseases and yet that country’s systemic inequities remain deeply ingrained, according to Shroff.

Racial data should only be collected if it’s going to be used for programs and research specifically designed to address racism, Shroff said.

“Just collecting data for no reason isn’t helpful,” she said.


In fact, she said, data showing one group as disproportionately affected by the pandemic can be harmful if presented without context.

“They will be seen as the vectors of disease,” she said. “We just have to be careful with how these data are used.”

Shroff said there are many, complex ways society should address the inequities of this and other health crises – but with or without the hard data, she has no doubt COVID-19 is “not an equal-opportunity disease.”

“It’s not going to affect people equitably because almost no disease does. Diseases often fall in the pattern of money and power. So those with money and power typically manage to stay healthy,” she said.
*Officials don’t address question of race and COVID-19*

Both B.C.’s provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, and Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, have been asked about demographic data this week, but neither directly addressed race.

On Monday, Henry said she is monitoring how the pandemic is affecting the province along socioeconomic lines, but said, “I don’t have the data yet.”

Tam said on Tuesday the federal government is collecting “detailed” demographic data, which is available online. But the government’s epidemiological summary page only included information about patients’ age and sex as of Tuesday afternoon.

NEWS 1130 asked both the provincial and federal government about their policies and practices around collecting and sharing demographic case data about COVID-19. Neither responded by Tuesday afternoon.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 14, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Tim, that map says nothing about sources and I disagree with your assertion that this is due to immigrants and foreign workers. If you have facts to back up your claim then let's see 'em. The reason, in my opinion, that the Calgary zone has the most cases is that this city is a corporate hub with a large international airport.
> 
> As I see it, the source of the disease and its spread in Canada is due to ALL international and domestic travel (remember March break?) that continued uninterrupted for some time after this disease was already established in BC and Ontario.



I think your point about Calgary being a major transportation hub is very interesting and may apply to Detroit as well. Detroit and its surrounding counties are the overwhelming majority of Michigan's cases. Detroit is a major hub for Delta Airlines.


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## rochie (Apr 15, 2020)

Something positive

Cptn Tom Moore 99years old wanted to raise £500000 before his 100th birthday but the total raised is now actually more like £5m !

Well done Sir your an inspiration

Army veteran, 99, raises £4m for 'humbled' NHS

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## buffnut453 (Apr 15, 2020)

rochie said:


> Something positive
> 
> Cptn Tom Moore 99years old wanted to raise £500000 before his 100th birthday but the total raised is now actually more like £5m !
> 
> ...



Saw that one. Capt Moore is a CLASS ACT. There are many who would do well to emulate his example. Absolute bluddy hero!!!!


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## pbehn (Apr 15, 2020)

nsmekanik said:


> *Canada's 'colourblind' coronavirus data could leave officials blind to racial inequities*
> 
> *Officials don’t address question of race and COVID-19*
> 
> .


Probably because they don't have it and any data means little at the moment, such things come later. The people who are dying today may have been infected 4 weeks ago. This is just politicizing the pandemic in accordance with the writers agenda. What is known is that the old are extremely vulnerable and in UK that means predominantly white. The first people in UK to be infected had connections to China, or to skiing holidays in Italy and Austria. There were several Arsenal footballers and the manager were infected by the owner of Olympiacos, well that may fit the racial element of the piece being "not white" but all of them are either millionaires or billionaires.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 15, 2020)

pbehn said:


> ...... This is just politicizing the pandemic in accordance with the writers agenda. What is known is that the old are extremely vulnerable and in UK that means predominantly white.......



I agree that it's politicizing the issue. We have bigger issues to worry about than stewing over why we aren't breaking down the numbers based on race.


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## swampyankee (Apr 15, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Afaik it’s never been effective to use such a technique, but I’m not up to speed with the latest developments.





Crimea_River said:


> I agree that it's politicizing the issue. We have bigger issues to worry about than stewing over why we aren't breaking down the numbers based on race.



Breaking down the numbers on race is probably less important than breaking them down based on socio-economic status. Like it as not, the poor tend to have worse access to health care than do relatively wealthy people. So do people in rural areas, which is why I expect the rate of cases and fatalities in areas like North Dakota and Idaho is going to end up being at least as great as that in more urbanized, densely populated states.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 15, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. (CEST) 15th April
cases 165,155, new 2,667, deaths 21,645, new 578, recovered 38,092, new 962, tests 1,117,404, new 43,715
fatality rate 13.1%
mortality rate 359 per million
test rate 18.5 per thousand
test rate today 725 per million


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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

20 new cases, but no new deaths yesterday.
number recovered is now more than that of active cases.

We haven't had any new cases in our region for 5 days now.

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## MiTasol (Apr 15, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Breaking down the numbers on race is probably less important than breaking them down based on socio-economic status. Like it as not, the poor tend to have worse access to health care than do relatively wealthy people. So do people in rural areas, which is why I expect the rate of cases and fatalities in areas like North Dakota and Idaho is going to end up being at least as great as that in more urbanized, densely populated states.



One great advantage of living in a rural area though is the chance of infection is far lower as you can self isolate quite easily and still be very busy. When you have multiple hectares/acres you can easily walk without meeting anyone else and the upkeep, mowing, fence repairs (thanks kangaroos, I dont think) irrigation system, pruning, etc mean you are never without another task to do.


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## fubar57 (Apr 15, 2020)

Small town as well. I take dawg for a walk at about 2200hrs and never see a soul. In the way back when during normal nights one could pass at least 4-5 walkers


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## MiTasol (Apr 15, 2020)

Shopper who used team to stockpile $10k of toilet paper, sanitiser refused refund

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## fubar57 (Apr 15, 2020)

Good stuff. I believe Canada has done something along the same lines. I know for sure that the Costco in PG is doing that


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> 20 new cases, but no new deaths yesterday.
> number recovered is now more than that of active cases.
> 
> We haven't had any new cases in our region for 5 days now.



Congrats to you guys for showing us how it is done right. Here people just bitch about being inconvenienced, and go out of there way to fight against it.


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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Congrats to you guys for showing us how it is done right. Here people just bitch about being inconvenienced, and go out of there to fight against it.


Here there's no desire to be out of it too early.
The problem is, that we're not really going to be any better off long-term with our borders effectively closed until there's a vaccine.


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## MiTasol (Apr 15, 2020)

Regarding other damage that covid-19 is doing to the body.
This link from the Washington Post summarises some of the other known problems. It is behind a paywall but you might get access as a one off visitor.
Coronavirus destroys lungs. But doctors are finding its damage in kidneys, hearts and elsewhere.

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## at6 (Apr 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Shopper who used team to stockpile $10k of toilet paper, sanitiser refused refund


I found it funny because the a$$ hat is now stuck with all of it. All of the stores here have had a "No Refund" policy since all of this started and people ran in panic buying anything and everything in large quantities. Three weeks ago there people using two and three shopping carts piled high and now they will have to either eat it or wipe with it.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 15, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Regarding other damage that covid-19 is doing to the body.
> This link from the Washington Post summarises some of the other known problems. It is behind a paywall but you might get access as a one off visitor.
> Coronavirus destroys lungs. But doctors are finding its damage in kidneys, hearts and elsewhere.



Which brings me to the Rosie. The Captain absolutely made the right call in order to protect his aircrew and his Damage Control Attack Teams (Fire fighters.) If you can't fight the ship (Airwing, and Damage Control.) you're a mission kill.

Edit: I also agree with his relief for cause and agree that SecNav needed to go. After being retired from the Navy and watching this unfold? I can say with great dignity; Not my circus, not my monkeys.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Congrats to you guys for showing us how it is done right. Here people just bitch about being inconvenienced, and go out of there to fight against it.


Hope you're doing well/better.

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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

15 new cases today, no new deaths.
Also, another day with no local cases.

But I'm really starting to struggle with the lock-down and lack of social interaction.



 DerAdlerIstGelandet
how are you doing?

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## jetcal1 (Apr 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> 15 new cases today, no new deaths.
> Also, another day with no local cases.
> 
> But I'm really starting to struggle with the lock-down and lack of social interaction.
> ...


How's your stash and paint supply?


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## at6 (Apr 15, 2020)

If his stash and paint supply are anything like mine, he'll never leave home except for food and T.P.

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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> How's your stash and paint supply?


I'm not into modelling. Rather play with the real things, which is what makes it worse, as I can't get out and do that.

Also, I usually work from home (self-employed) so I'm trying to work out what I'm going to do until this blows over and work picks up again.


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## jetcal1 (Apr 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm not into modelling. Rather play with the real things, which is what makes it worse, as I can't get out and do that.
> 
> Also, I usually work from home (self-employed) so I'm trying to work out what I'm going to do until this blows over and work picks up again.


I gotchya'. May I kindly suggest mail order some models, or trolling people on the internet?


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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> I gotchya'. May I kindly suggest mail order some models, or trolling people on the internet?


They won't arrive until after lockdown, nothing except essential items is being delivered, so that unnecessary stuff doesn't crowd out the limited delivery space.

THAT'S the extent of our lockdown. Went out for a half-hour bike ride today and feel a bit better for it. I think I need a bit of 'me' time...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> 15 new cases today, no new deaths.
> Also, another day with no local cases.
> 
> But I'm really starting to struggle with the lock-down and lack of social interaction.
> ...



I’m doing ok, thanks for asking. My symptoms are pretty much gone now. I’m still not leaving the house at all, and taking it easy, but I think I am in clear.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m doing ok, thanks for asking. My symptoms are pretty much gone now. I’m still not leaving the house at all, and taking it easy, but I think I am in clear.


Good time to read or build something from the shelf of doom.


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## ThomasP (Apr 15, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 15
cases 1,809, recovered 940, hospitalized 445, deaths 87, tested 40,242*
fatality rate 4.8%
mortality rate 15.3 per million
tests rate 7.1 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## MiTasol (Apr 15, 2020)

at6 said:


> I found it funny because the a$$ hat is now stuck with all of it. All of the stores here have had a "No Refund" policy since all of this started and people ran in panic buying anything and everything in large quantities. Three weeks ago there people using two and three shopping carts piled high and now they will have to either eat it or wipe with it.



Cockroaches love paper. I hope in a years time they find that it is all infested with roaches and have to send it to the tip

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## gumbyk (Apr 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m doing ok, thanks for asking. My symptoms are pretty much gone now. I’m still not leaving the house at all, and taking it easy, but I think I am in clear.


Good to hear.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 16, 2020)

Today, like Yesterday, and like Saturday, I walked the 1/2 mile to the intersection, fished from the bridge, and walked home.
I ran out of worms, but have 3 panfish in my aquarium now.
The cats scamper madly about the house (they don't like rain), my wife watches movies (we have about 200), and I troll the internet.
Strangely similar to The Time Before Covid.
I'm glad for your apparent improvement Adler; stay well Vincenzo, and good luck to us all!

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## nuuumannn (Apr 16, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Went out for a half-hour bike ride today and feel a bit better for it. I think I need a bit of 'me' time...



Hang in there Aaron. It affects all of us differently. My girlfriend is suffering a bit as a result of the lockdown - she's quite a social person (whereas I'm not), so she finds it hard, too.

We've decided we are having a gathering at my house once the lockdown is over (!) and we're inviting friends and whomever over.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 16, 2020)

A not so unpredictable side effect of lockdown...

Pornhub offers quarantined Italians free access - CNN

Porn Use Surges Nearly 20% During The Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown

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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> A not so unpredictable side effect of lockdown...
> 
> Pornhub offers quarantined Italians free access - CNN
> 
> Porn Use Surges Nearly 20% During The Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown



To be followed by unprecedented demand for corrective lenses in the years to come?

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## Vincenzo (Apr 16, 2020)

There is someones from Belgique/Belgie? Their situation is not good, almost for the numbers i can see


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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2020)

Good to see that crass stupidity still hasn't been eradicated:

Michigan protesters honk against coronavirus order

While I appreciate the desire to get back to work, I'm just shaking my head at the woman who wants things to reopen so she can "buy things we need" (ignoring, for a moment, the fact that people can get what we need (food, medication etc) in pretty much all countries...they just can't get everything they want). 

The next comment takes the biscuit, though. She wants shops to open so she can get her hair dyed to hide her grey roots. That is SUCH a First World problem!

I'm not normally a vengeful person but I find a small part of me hoping some of these idiots contract the virus because they didn't maintain social distancing during this protest.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Good to see that crass stupidity still hasn't been eradicated:
> 
> Michigan protesters honk against coronavirus order
> 
> ...



Hense my earlier comment about people just bitching and fighting. People are so selfish.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2020)

In better news, 99 year-old WW2 veteran completes 100 laps of his garden as a fundraiser....and raises GBP 12 million for the UK's National Health Service:




STILL THE GREATEST GENERATION!!!!

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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Which brings me to the Rosie. The Captain absolutely made the right call in order to protect his aircrew and his Damage Control Attack Teams (Fire fighters.) If you can't fight the ship (Airwing, and Damage Control.) you're a mission kill.
> 
> Edit: I also agree with his relief for cause and agree that SecNav needed to go. After being retired from the Navy and watching this unfold? I can say with great dignity; Not my circus, not my monkeys.



If the Roosevelt’s captain had gone through the chain of command and been ignored, he really had little choice (my choice response would have been a quiet letter of reprimand, not a very public punishment. He didn’t run his ship into a reef or encourage ill-discipline.) Warships are even more densely packed than military barracks and prisons, and this makes them very susceptible to rapid spread of airborne disease.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2020)

There have also been suggestions that the Secretary of the Navy invited the Roosevelt's skipper to contact his office directly. Now, those of us who've been in the military know that senior officials saying "Yeah, call me anytime" don't usually mean it...but if chain-of-command methods were failing, then the only options are (a) remaining silent or (b) breaking a few rules. Personally, I'd go with (b) every time...and the best officers I served with/under also fell into that category.

Bottom line...we need to see what the investigation uncovers. I think we can say with some certainty, though, that it won't be particularly flattering to a number of senior Navy officials.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2020)

I think we will ever know the true story of what happened. I honestly would not he surprised (and neither should anyone else who has served) that the Capt. of the Roosevelt did use the chain command, but was shot down with the usual _“This is the military, take 1000 mg Motrins, drink water and drive on!”_

The whole thing was mismanaged, and the SecNav screwed up royally by firing him the way he did, and then addressing the crew the way he did. This caused a serious rift between the military and civilian leadership that will be difficult to overcome.

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## Marcel (Apr 16, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Hang in there Aaron. It affects all of us differently. My girlfriend is suffering a bit as a result of the lockdown - she's quite a social person (whereas I'm not), so she finds it hard, too.
> 
> We've decided we are having a gathering at my house once the lockdown is over (!) and we're inviting friends and whomever over.


Cannot promise to be there


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## Marcel (Apr 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> There is someones from Belgique/Belgie? Their situation is not good, almost for the numbers i can see


They are actually levelling out. The amount of ICU patients were stabilising the last few days.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 16, 2020)

Well, if he posted his address, there'd be half a chance.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Cannot promise to be there


Be a champ!
Bike to my place, we'll drive to his.
Aussie land isn't *that* far away now, is it?


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## fubar57 (Apr 16, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Hang in there Aaron. It affects all of us differently. My girlfriend is suffering a bit as a result of the lockdown - she's quite a social person (whereas I'm not), so she finds it hard, too.
> 
> We've decided we are having a gathering at my house once the lockdown is over (!) and we're inviting friends and whomever over.


The missus is going bat-sh!t crazy because she can't see/hug the grandkid who lives a kilometer away


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## fubar57 (Apr 16, 2020)

Latest brain-dead reporter question to our PM minutes ago....."Why didn't this weeks deaths match your prediction model last week?"

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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think we will ever know the true story of what happened. I honestly would not he surprised (and neither should anyone else who has served) that the Capt. of the Roosevelt did use the chain command, but was shot down with the usual _“This is the military, take 1000 mg Motrins, drink water and drive on!”_
> 
> The whole thing was mismanaged, and the SecNav screwed up royally by firing him the way he did, and then addressing the crew the way he did. This caused a serious riff between the military and civilian leadership that will be difficult to overcome.



I think it adds to a rift that's already been started by, for example, pardoning the SEALS convicted, in a military court, of serious crimes. In general, I feel that the internal discipline of the armed forces should be left to the services, themselves, unless there is some systemic malfeasance within the military justice system or widespread corruption, _e.g._, the Fat Leonard case. Internal policies are a different matter; for example, when Truman ordered the integration of the armed forces. Citizens are citizens, and the government -- including the armed forces -- should not impede citizens from service.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Latest brain-dead reporter question to our PM minutes ago....."Why didn't this weeks deaths match your prediction model last week?"



Two weeks ago, it was "why can't you release the models" and now it's "what went wrong with your model?" I hope the general public is smarter than that.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I hope the general public is smarter than that.



They aren't. See post #1627 if you need proof.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 16, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 16th April
cases 168,941, new 3,786*, deaths 22,179, new 525, recovered 40,164, new 2072, tests 1,178,403, new 60,999
*i suppose we start to see the Easter effect
fatality rate 13.1%
mortality rate 368 per million
test rate 19.5 per thousand
test rate today 1,011 per million, new record

news: Bergamo municipality estimated that Covid-19 deaths are ~0.5% of population


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## rochie (Apr 16, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Good to see that crass stupidity still hasn't been eradicated:
> 
> Michigan protesters honk against coronavirus order
> 
> ...


Saw that on the news.
dont understand why they need to wear tactical clothing and carry assault rifles ?

Compensating for a lack of genitals methinks !

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## rochie (Apr 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Latest brain-dead reporter question to our PM minutes ago....."Why didn't this weeks deaths match your prediction model last week?"


ours was "can you give a time limit on the lockdown ?" From the BBC's chief political correspondent.
30 seconds after the Home Secretary went into detail explaining the criteria for easing restrictions and how it would be irresponsible to pre guess any outcome without looking at the data first !


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## MIflyer (Apr 16, 2020)

Well, it took 33 years but we finally found out why Darth Vader was wearing that respirator and breathing so heavily.

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## fubar57 (Apr 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> ours was "can you give a time limit on the lockdown ?" From the BBC's chief political correspondent.
> 30 seconds after the Home Secretary went into detail explaining the criteria for easing restrictions and how it would be irresponsible to pre guess any outcome without looking at the data first !


Yesterday the B.C. lockdown was extended to the end of April


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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> ours was "can you give a time limit on the lockdown ?" From the BBC's chief political correspondent.
> 30 seconds after the Home Secretary went into detail explaining the criteria for easing restrictions and how it would be irresponsible to pre guess any outcome without looking at the data first !


It is now clear that our journalists study "how to be stupid" to a very high level, all questions today showed the journalist hadn't listened, hadn't a clue what is happening or both. There is more talk of "modelling" in the briefing than there is on this forum, I hope they never move onto air brush techniques.

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## rochie (Apr 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Yesterday the B.C. lockdown was extended to the end of April


We have three more weeks !


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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Latest brain-dead reporter question to our PM minutes ago....."Why didn't this weeks deaths match your prediction model last week?"


Oh, we have lots of questions like that, that is the base level of stupidity (based on present modelling). Today we had "What do you think will be learned from this when the pandemic is over" the ministers answer was followed by "Do you think you will impose sanctions on China then"?

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 16, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> The missus is going bat-sh!t crazy because she can't see/hug the grandkid who lives a kilometer away


You can't both walk a half klick and meet in the middle? Sneak somebody over in the night and stay a few days? Meet at WalMart or PigglyWiggly or whatever you have there?


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## rochie (Apr 16, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> In better news, 99 year-old WW2 veteran completes 100 laps of his garden as a fundraiser....and raises GBP 12 million for the UK's National Health Service:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Absolute legend !

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## fubar57 (Apr 16, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Good to see that crass stupidity still hasn't been eradicated:
> 
> Michigan protesters honk against coronavirus order
> 
> ...


Yesterday, another Grade-A idiot...https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ry-clerk-over-limit-on-toilet-paper-1.5533624


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## Zipper730 (Apr 16, 2020)

One of the vaccine proposals troubles me, because it's not a vaccine, it's gene therapy: Genes interact with one another, and with something of this nature being developed, what if it made us vulnerable to something else or had some bizarre effect down the road?

I remember there's a mutation to CCR5 Delta 32 which makes people immune to many strains of HIV, but people with it are severely affected by the West Nile virus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2020)

And here we go with the politics again...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2020)

I am reopening this thread.

Lets all stay out of the realm of left vs. right, dem vs. rep political shit. That is the stuff of sheep, and nothing more. If you want to discuss that kind of stuff take it to whatever politically slanted propaganda forum suits your purpose, but lets keep it off of here. Too many friendships on this forum have been lost because of it.

Thanks...

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## Vincenzo (Apr 16, 2020)

I'm sorry for my reply to buffnut453, sometime i don't remember the political ban

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I'm sorry for my reply to buffnut453, sometime i don't remember the political ban



It’s ok. We have all done it, me included.

The conversation started ok, and then it took a turn for the south.

I do not like censorship, in fact I hate it, but there are other places for that type of discussion on the internet. Let’s not turn this place into one of them. Let’s leave that for Facebook, it’s already flooded with that hate and BS.

On a side note: politics from a historical point of view, i.e. as it pertains to the war, or history will always be allowed here. It’s part of the military and aviation topic. We just don’t want the left vs. right type stuff going on.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> and then it took a turn for the south.



I think this means something which has nothing to do with the cardinal points

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## MiTasol (Apr 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> ours was "can you give a time limit on the lockdown ?" From the BBC's chief political correspondent.
> 30 seconds after the Home Secretary went into detail explaining the criteria for easing restrictions and how it would be irresponsible to pre guess any outcome without looking at the data first !



I have to say that in Australia some reporters are asking intelligent questions of our politicians and getting nonsensical answers. Our Prime Minister is adamant that children cannot get Covid-19 or pass it on to others so schools and pre-schools must remain open.
I have a son in law who got Covid-19 from one or both my grandchildren and five weeks later he is still in isolation and still very ill. He's worked from home for over a year and only goes out for exercise (he runs half marathons but there were none in that time frame) and occasional shopping and had no contact with anyone who had the virus except the two children who both had high fevers for the week ten days before he became ill.

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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I think this means something which has nothing to do with the cardinal points


No one knows the origin, there are many theories, but it means taking a turn for the worse.


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## MiTasol (Apr 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am reopening this thread.
> 
> Lets all stay out of the realm of left vs. right, dem vs. rep political shit. *That is the stuff of sheep, and nothing more. *If you want to discuss that kind of stuff take it to whatever politically slanted propaganda forum suits your purpose, but lets keep it off of here. Too many friendships on this forum have been lost because of it.
> 
> Thanks...



Agreed. And that applies to racism as well

I may have a slightly different slant on that because, since 2000, I have spent over half my time in Papua New Guinea and the rest in Aus. In Aus I am one of the white majority. In PNG I am one of the (very small) white minority so I see racism from both sides.

Intelligent people, and I try hard to be one but do not always succeed, treat all men as gentlemen and all women as ladies until proven otherwise. I must admit that, although I have friends from one particular country which is not Aus or PNG, that I tend to treat the majority of one countries new residents who are in PNG as ignorant arrogant scum because at least 90% of those I meet are. Interestingly, those second, third and fourth generation residents from that country living in PNG treat the newcomers with even greater contempt.

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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Two weeks ago, it was "why can't you release the models" and now it's "what went wrong with your model?" I hope the general public is smarter than that.



Probably not, but politicians are even worse. If they don’t like the results of the model they ignore them and attack all science.


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## mikewint (Apr 16, 2020)

A number of sources are given most likely, IMHO, if from standard 2-D maps where North is up and South is down. I've also read that in certain Native American Indian tribes there was a belief that after death the soul traveled south so "going south" became a euphemism for dying. Criminals oft times headed South to Mexico to escape pursuit, in effect, disappearing. Take your pick


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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

There was a question about the demographics of people dying in UK at the government briefing today. A discussion after the briefing revealed the statistic (source not stated) that the London "Asian" community has 6 times the level of type two diabetes than the white population. "Asian" is in quotes because in UK now Asia means the former India before independence.


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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> Saw that on the news.
> dont understand why they need to wear tactical clothing and carry assault rifles ?
> 
> Compensating for a lack of genitals methinks !



Possibly. One of my brother's coworkers (both do IT support for a bank) bought 3 or 4 skids of freeze-dried food and 10,000 rounds of ammunition. By brother, who is a shooter (he used to shoot expert with .45) and used to be a hunter; he's never had more than 50 or 100 rounds in his house. He has a rather negative opinion of his coworker's sanity....


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## rochie (Apr 16, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Possibly. One of my brother's coworkers (both do IT support for a bank) bought 3 or 4 skids of freeze-dried food and 10,000 rounds of ammunition. By brother, who is a shooter (he used to shoot expert with .45) and used to be a hunter; he's never had more than 50 or 100 rounds in his house. He has a rather negative opinion of his coworker's sanity....


More money than sense !


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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> Possibly. One of my brother's coworkers (both do IT support for a bank) bought 3 or 4 skids of freeze-dried food and 10,000 rounds of ammunition. By brother, who is a shooter (he used to shoot expert with .45) and used to be a hunter; he's never had more than 50 or 100 rounds in his house. He has a rather negative opinion of his coworker's sanity....


I know nothing about guns but I know battleships wore out their barrels, can any gun fire 10,000 rounds? How many guns do you need to use that many rounds?


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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I know nothing about guns but I know battleships wore out their barrels, can any gun fire 10,000 rounds? How many guns do you need to use that many rounds?



After the first few, the SWAT team would likely stop his shooting rather permanently.

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## Shortround6 (Apr 16, 2020)

A battleship (pre WW II) could wear out a barrel in around 125 rounds. 

Small arms are variable, some highpower hunting rifles can go in as little as 6-800 rounds. 

Some rifles can go 5000 or more (depends in your standard of accuracy and how much rapid fire you do. Hot barrels burn out quicker.

Pistols can last for thousands of rounds. A lot less heat per shot.


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## pbehn (Apr 16, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> After the first few, the SWAT team would likely stop his shooting rather permanently.


It was a serious question, I doubt any soldier used 10,000 rounds in the war, I also doubt many aircraft aces used that much ammunition and they had a team servicing their MGs. It is a huge number.


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## wuzak (Apr 16, 2020)

> This is COVID-19, not COVID-1 folks, and so you would think the people in charge of the World Health Organization, facts and figures, would be on top of that.



Its not just the media saying stupid things!


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## gumbyk (Apr 16, 2020)

Down to 8 new cases today, with 2 more deaths. Only 14 people still in hospital, with 2 in ICU.
1409 total cases, with 816 recovered.


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## ThomasP (Apr 16, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 16
cases 1,912, recovered 1,020, hospitalized 475, deaths 94, tested 41,675*
fatality rate 4.9%
mortality rate 16.5 per million
tests rate 7.3 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, and are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Cannot promise to be there



You are welcome anytime, Marcel. It's a long way to come, but when you decide to make the trip, get in touch. Good food, comfy bed, neat aviation museums...

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## jetcal1 (Apr 16, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> If the Roosevelt’s captain had gone through the chain of command and been ignored, he really had little choice (my choice response would have been a quiet letter of reprimand, not a very public punishment. He didn’t run his ship into a reef or encourage ill-discipline.) Warships are even more densely packed than military barracks and prisons, and this makes them very susceptible to rapid spread of airborne disease.



The silence by his chain is deafening.


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## jetcal1 (Apr 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think we will ever know the true story of what happened. I honestly would not he surprised (and neither should anyone else who has served) that the Capt. of the Roosevelt did use the chain command, but was shot down with the usual _“This is the military, take 1000 mg Motrins, drink water and drive on!”_
> 
> The whole thing was mismanaged, and the SecNav screwed up royally by firing him the way he did, and then addressing the crew the way he did. This caused a serious rift between the military and civilian leadership that will be difficult to overcome.



You mean he got a "Your the CO, handle it!"
Well, he handled it.
Worse than the senior leadership divide, the guy down on the deckplates is now going to serious question if Senior Leadership really cares about them.

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## swampyankee (Apr 16, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> You mean he got a "Your the CO, handle it!"
> Well, he handled it.
> Worse than the senior leadership divide, the guy down on the deckplates is now going to serious question if Senior Leadership really cares about them.



I predict that the relieved captain's replacement is not going to find a ship full of welcoming, happy-to-see-him faces. It may be a long time before the _Roosevelt_ can be considered a "happy ship."


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## jetcal1 (Apr 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We just don’t want the left vs. right type stuff going on.


Well, I've always disagreed with engines that want to go left. Any honest propeller always wants to go clockwise from the cockpit.

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## jetcal1 (Apr 16, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> I predict that the relieved captain's replacement is not going to find a ship full of welcoming, happy-to-see-him faces. It may be a long time before the _Roosevelt_ can be considered a "happy ship."


In the divisions like Engineering and Air that eat their young? You're absolutely right. A Work Center in OA Division were the weather guessers hang out? Depending on their E-5/E-6 leadership, they'll do okay.


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## gumbyk (Apr 16, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Well, I've always disagreed with engines that want to go left. Any honest propeller always wants to go clockwise from the cockpit.



No, no, no. Propellers should turn anti-clockwise!!!

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## jetcal1 (Apr 16, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> No, no, no. Propellers should turn anti-clockwise!!!


Lefty!

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## gumbyk (Apr 16, 2020)

jetcal1 said:


> Lefty!


Righty!!

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## Marcel (Apr 17, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> You are welcome anytime, Marcel. It's a long way to come, but when you decide to make the trip, get in touch. Good food, comfy bed, neat aviation museums...


If I get the chance, I sure will.


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## Capt. Vick (Apr 17, 2020)



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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2020)

Capt. Vick said:


> View attachment 577779




Hmmm....I'm pretty sure those won't protect anyone from anything. Not because they don't have good filtration capabilities. Not because they won't fit well over the nose and mouth. No, the simple reason is that I were to wear one of those, I'd eat it in less than 3 seconds.


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## pbehn (Apr 17, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> No, no, no. Propellers should turn anti-clockwise!!!


They do, the issue is where you stand to observe the rotation.

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## cherry blossom (Apr 17, 2020)

Someone sent me 
"Actually its only quarantine if it comes from the quarantine region of France. Otherwise it’s just sparkling isolation."

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 17, 2020)

I’m stealing this.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 17, 2020)

That's hysterical!


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## rochie (Apr 17, 2020)

Brilliant !


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## Zipper730 (Apr 17, 2020)

Actually, speaking of the bacon mask image, there is a particularly serious problem: The food-chain. 

Farm workers are starting to get sick in increasing numbers in some places. There's already been some dairy farms dumping milk, for example. This isn't a problem that will present in just cattle and dairy farms, but even farms for just fruit & veg, as the illness spreads from human to human.

Frankly, I've been trying to contact some activists and stuff and figure out if it's possible to set up some kind of community farming thing, or figure out a way to raise money for a lot of masks. If the food chain goes, most of us are toast.

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## mikewint (Apr 17, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> If the food chain goes, most of us are toast.


Then again for some of us the food chain comes to us

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## Vincenzo (Apr 17, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 17th April
cases 172,434, new 3,493, deaths 22,745, new 575, recovered 42,727, new 2,563, tests 1,244,108, new 65,705
fatality rate 13.2%
mortality rate 377 per million
test rate 20.6 per thousand
test rate today 1,089 per million, new record
positive rate 13.9% (cases/total tests)
positive rate today 5.3% (new cases/new tests)


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## Marcel (Apr 17, 2020)

I saw on the news that in the US the wants to ’restart society again’. Sounds a bit strange at a moment when they have the highest death toll by corona in the world. But I don’t know about the hospital numbers. Is the amount of new patients per day going down?


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I saw on the news that in the US the wants to ’restart society again’. Sounds a bit strange at a moment when they have the highest death toll by corona in the world. But I don’t know about the hospital numbers. Is the amount of new patients per day going down?


The key factor is not numbers it's percentage; in this case the percentage of free/available ICU beds and ventilators, whichever percentage is lower. This is a difference in methodology: Are we attempting ducking/dodging the disease, or enduring it and retaining functionality during it.

*

 mikewint
*"Then again for some of us the food chain comes to us " OK, show us how you bag, gut, and cook a Peterbuilt?
*

 jetcal1
*: "Any honest propeller always wants to go clockwise " Please note: dishonest propellers lie about which way they go ... some swing both ways ...

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## GrauGeist (Apr 17, 2020)

The U.S. appears to have a higher count because it has a higher population (outside of China, who has masked their actual toll) but statistic-wise, it's lower than many nations with 107 deaths per million compared to nations like Belgium (445 deaths per million), Spain (417 deaths per million), Italy (376 deaths per million) and so on. In that respect, the U.S. ranks #13.

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## fubar57 (Apr 17, 2020)

Speaking of ventilators, interesting article about them here...https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ventilators-covid-overuse-1.5534097

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I saw on the news that in the US the wants to ’restart society again’. Sounds a bit strange at a moment when they have the highest death toll by corona in the world. But I don’t know about the hospital numbers. Is the amount of new patients per day going down?



We also have the highest critical care numbers as well.

People don’t seem to understand how this works. Lets open everything up, and then let all the infected people keep spreading it. Thats how to beat a virus! lol

I keep hearing people compare this to the flu (and I was guilty of that too a few months ago) but that is such a naive and simple thing to do. They keep saying the flu kills more, and more get infected with it. Well yeah dumb ass, thats because we don’t social distance with the flu. CV-19 has three times the fatality rate, and is more contagious. We are keeping the numbers down by shutting everything down. Think about what the numbers would be if we treated it like the flu.

You cannot get through to these internet armchair doctors and virus experts though...

I’m really getting to the point that I want to contain all these people together, and let the virus remove them from the gene pool.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I saw on the news that in the US the wants to ’restart society again’.


We need that like a hole in the head: While it appears to have almost topped off, there are still a lot of people who are ill and capable of spreading the illness around. If social distancing would stop at this point, the rates would increase to absurd proportions. Our system is already overburdened.

I'd figure you'd want to wait until you went over the top of the curve and were on the downside in all 50 states, and then wait about 37 days minimum (that seems to be about the time it takes from when a person first is infected, to stops being infectious).

That still revolves around the presumption that all international travel remained halted


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## Marcel (Apr 17, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> We need that like a hole in the head: While it appears to have almost topped off, there are still a lot of people who are ill and capable of spreading the illness around. If social distancing would stop at this point, the rates would increase to absurd proportions. Our system is already overburdened.
> 
> I'd figure you'd want to wait until you went over the top of the curve and were on the downside in all 50 states, and then wait about 37 days minimum (that seems to be about the time it takes from when a person first is infected, to stops being infectious).
> 
> That still revolves around the presumption that all international travel remained halted


Yeah that is what I thought and really didn’t understand it.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> The U.S. appears to have a higher count because it has a higher population (outside of China, who has masked their actual toll) but statistic-wise, it's lower than many nations with 107 deaths per million compared to nations like Belgium (445 deaths per million), Spain (417 deaths per million), Italy (376 deaths per million) and so on. In that respect, the U.S. ranks #13.



Bear in mind that the virus really took hold in the US a couple of weeks after it was already running rife through Europe...so let's compare the numbers in a few weeks, particularly if States start opening up without adequate precautions.

As to China, I would agree that they have been less than forthcoming. However, in many respects China had the easier problem to deal with because was the epicentre for the virus. Any infectious disease is easier to handle if it breaks out in just one location. Measures can be taken to contain it by preventing travel out of that one region. Other countries, including the US, had a much more challenging problem because it started in multiple locations simultaneously due to international travel. 

For all the talk of the US having peaked, I fear it may be a false dawn. Even if deaths and infections have peaked, the death rate is still much higher than most other countries. If that continues for several weeks, then the deaths-per-million may well increase considerably.

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## ThomasP (Apr 17, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 17
cases 2,071, recovered 1,066, hospitalized 518, deaths 111, tested [43,053]*
fatality rate 5.4%
mortality rate 19.5 per million
tests rate [7.6] per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, the number is increasing dramatically. At the current time, processing capacity for test kits is also a significant problem. Tests are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.

edit: numbers in [ ] corrected due to typo in the reported statistics - 45,053 corrected to 43,053 and 7.9 corrected to 7.6


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## pgeno71 (Apr 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I saw on the news that in the US the wants to ’restart society again’. Sounds a bit strange at a moment when they have the highest death toll by corona in the world. But I don’t know about the hospital numbers. Is the amount of new patients per day going down?



It's not that wierd if you look at the geographic disparity of the pandemic. It is in all 50 states, yes, but with in the states the outbreaks are concentrated. Some areas and occupations that could be safely reopened on a limited basis using the necessary precautions will soon have to in order to limit the economic devastation. For example, in Michigan, the total number is third highest in the country, but half the counties in the state have zero to less that 10 reported cases after a month of stay-at-home. Outside of the Detroit/Flint corridor and Grand Rapids, the place is filled with little towns and is very rural. I live in a county with a quarter million people, we have 88 reported cases with 5 deaths. I know if we throw the doors off and open up eveything that the disease will spread and the numbers will go up, that's why it needs to be done cautiously, but it needs to be done or people will start losing their businesses and livelihoods.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 17, 2020)

One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.

If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.

It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.

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## fubar57 (Apr 17, 2020)

Fresh update for my province 30 minutes ago, dependant on numbers continuing to going down of course

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-data-1.5535716


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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.
> 
> If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.
> 
> It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.



I fully comprehend the geography of the North American continent and entirely agree that different regions will require different approaches when it comes to easing lockdown measures. My concern is that public pressure to open things too quickly will result in renewed outbreaks.

The following story about Sioux City, SD, should be cautionary for anyone seeking to open everything immediately. Sioux City isn't a particularly big burg...and rapid outbreaks like the one in the article could easily overwhelm local healthcare resources if we're not careful:

The untold story behind America's biggest outbreak


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## MiTasol (Apr 17, 2020)

This applies to so many people

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## pbehn (Apr 17, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> One thing that our forum members need to realize that is different from most of their home countries, save for Australia, is the sheer size of the American and Canadian landmasses. Because of this, there are regional differences that must be recognized. I'll speak for Canada because it's my home.
> 
> If you place Canada on a map of Europe, Vancouver would be in Lisbon and St John's would be east of Tehran. The situations in our country vary with geography as much as you'd expect the situations to differ regionally across Europe. Though there is a federal oversight that offers a more standardized approach than one would expect to see between nations, the fact remains that some regions on my country saw the outbreaks earlier than others so, while some are on the upswing, some are levelling off and may in fact be on the way down.
> 
> It's entirely appropriate, in my mind, to consider a phased restart of "normal life" by region in countries like mine whilst carefully controlling travel in and out of the regions that have seen the pandemic through. I in no way expect this to happen any time soon and do not agree with a "damn the torpedoes" approach to restarting too early. However, I do see it as entirely appropriate for regions within Canada to restart while others are still in lock down and they should be allowed to do so with the appropriate measures in place.


We have the same arguments from the opposite end of the idiocy spectrum. We have people (from London) arguing that the lockdown should be raised in London first, they ignore the obvious fact that they are not "regions" they are not separated from anywhere in any real sense, much more than half the UK population live within a days bicycle ride for any reasonably fit person.


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## mikewint (Apr 17, 2020)

My state which is Arkansas (Population 3.018 million as of 2019) reports, as of 4/16

1,695 Number of people in Arkansas who have tested positive for COVID-19. 52.3% are female

37 Number of people in Arkansas who have died from COVID-19

92 Number of Arkansans currently hospitalized with COVID-19

23 Number of Arkansans with COVID-19 currently on a ventilator

116 Number of Arkansans with COVID-19 who are residents of a nursing home

593 Number of people in Arkansas who have recovered from COVID-19

21,055 Number of people in Arkansas who tested negative

My county which is Baxter (Population 41,932 as of 2019) has just FOUR (4) confirmed cases as of 4/16. Of course there is no way to measure asymptomatic cases or those who do not seek medical care. 
On 3/31 there were 122 confirmed cases and that has risen to 1620 as of 4/16. The slope is almost linear but is rising as the days pass.
Our learned Gov Asa H has steadily refused to issue a "Stay-at-Home" order making us one of only seven states not issuing such an order AND he intends to begin lifting restrictions on May 4.


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 17, 2020)

ArcGIS Dashboards
World: 2.2M
USA: 700K
Florida: 25K
Bay County: 44
BUT we don't have any idea how many symptom-less positives have gone untested;
AND we don't know how many symptomatic cases just stayed home to endure because they didn't consider their case sufficiently severe, or thought it was likely something else than CCV;
AND we don't know how many Positive or Negative tests were false;

SO I'll just go fishing again.


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## ThomasP (Apr 18, 2020)

Addition to the Minnesota report, April 17

About 1,000 people staged a protest outside the Minnesota governor's residence today. They were protesting the business shut-down effects of the 'social distancing' and 'shelter-in-place' orders. I was not there but - based on TV news and social media videos - almost none wore masks, and maybe 10%-15% made any attempt to follow social distancing guidelines. Anyone want to take bets on whether there is a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases - due to these individuals, and the people they infect, and the people they infect in turn infect, etc - over the next 2-3 weeks or so? It is also interesting that there were no elderly people in the videos. (This has nothing to do with politics, by the way. I understand their position. But WTF?!!!)


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## MiTasol (Apr 18, 2020)

It will be interesting to see how many of those who participated have CV in two weeks time and how many got it during that protest. And if they still think it is a hoax.
The absence of older persons probably indicates that the older people are smarter and recognised this was a potential mass distribution event.


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## rochie (Apr 18, 2020)

In a stampede to publish bad news stories the BBC did this.

BBC correction on Burberry coronavirus plea

the original story was their top headline on their website all day.

Correction hidden away down the bottom of the page.

Things are bad enough without the media making it worse


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## Dinger (Apr 18, 2020)

In case anyone is struggling with finding clear guidance, for the sake of clarification, here are those lockdown rules, one more time:

1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house.

2. Masks are useless at protecting you against the virus, but you may have to wear one because it can save lives, but they may not work, but they may be mandatory, but maybe not.

3. Shops are closed, except those shops that are open.

4. You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work.

5. You should not go to the Doctor's or to the hospital unless you have to go there, unless you are too poorly to go there.

6. This virus can kill people, but don’t be scared of it. It can only kill those people who are vulnerable or those people who are not vulnerable. It’s possible to contain and control it, sometimes, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.

7. Gloves won't help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes, or not.

8. STAY HOME, but it's important to go out.

9. There is no shortage of groceries in supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won’t need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some.

10. The virus has no effect on children except those children it affects.

11. Animals are not affected, but there was a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

12. Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point 11).

13. You will have many symptoms if you get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non-contagious with symptoms...it's a sort of lucky/unlucky dip.

14. To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it's better not to go to the shops unless you need toilet roll or a fence panel.

15. It's important to get fresh air but don't go to parks but go for a walk. But don’t sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you’re not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don’t eat your picnic, unless you've had a long walk, which you are/aren't allowed to do if you're old or pregnant.

16. Don’t visit old people but you have to take care of the old people and bring them food and medication.

17. If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can’t go out when you are better unless they need to go out.

18. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including frozen pizza.

19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but they can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

20. You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours ... or four hours...or six hours... I mean days, not hours. But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry... in the air, as long as the air is not plastic.

22. Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children unless you can send them to school because you’re not at home. If you are at home you can home educate your children using various portals and virtual classrooms unless you have poor internet, or more than one child and only one computer, or you are working from home. Baking cakes can be considered maths, science or art. If you are home educating you can include household chores within their education. If you are home educating you can start drinking at 10 am.

23. If you are not home educating children you can also start drinking at 10 am.

24. The number of corona related deaths will be announced daily but we don't know how many people are infected as they are only testing those who are almost dead to find out if that's what they will die of. The people who die of corona who aren’t counted, won’t or will be counted but maybe not.

25. We should stay in locked down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected so it’s important we get infected and some don’t get infected.

26. You can join your neighbours for a street party and turn your music up for an outside disco and your neighbours won’t call the police. People in another street are allowed to call the police about your music whilst also having a party which you are allowed to call the police about.

27. No business will go down due to Coronavirus except those businesses that will go down due to Coronavirus.

Hope that makes things clearer for you

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 18, 2020)

Dinger said:


> In case anyone is struggling with finding clear guidance, for the sake of clarification, here are those lockdown rules, one more time:
> 
> 1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house.
> 
> ...


You cause me severe pain ... or maybe not.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 18, 2020)

Italian report, 5 pm (CEST) 18th April
cases 175,925, +3,491, deaths 23,227, +482, recovered 44,927, +2,200, tests 1,305,833, +61,725
fatality rate 13.2%
mortality rate 385 per million
test rate 21.6 per thousand
positive rate 13.5%
test rate today 1.023 per million 
positive rate today 5.7%


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## fubar57 (Apr 18, 2020)



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## rochie (Apr 18, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 577933​


Yeah bit sick of celebrities, royalty and all round rich people telling me were all in this together l

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## pbehn (Apr 18, 2020)

rochie said:


> Yeah bit sick of celebrities, royalty and all round rich people telling me were all in this together l


Harry has a dog to walk you know, life long friend of the last two weeks.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 18, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 577933​


Ummm ... lemme suggest that fireworks should be set off OUTSIDE?


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## ThomasP (Apr 18, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 18
cases 2,213, recovered 1,118, hospitalized 561, deaths 121, tested 44,368*
fatality rate 5.5%
mortality rate 21.2 per million
tests rate 7.8 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, the number is increasing dramatically. At the current time, processing capacity of the test kits is as much of a problem as supply of test kits. Tests are currently being used only for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 18, 2020)



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## fubar57 (Apr 18, 2020)

Daaaa...da.....daaaa da....tun, tun, tun, tun, tun

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## MiTasol (Apr 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 577972



Sorry but for me in Aus that makes no sense - unless it a long forgotten screen shot from jaws

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## rochie (Apr 19, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Harry has a dog to walk you know, life long friend of the last two weeks.


yes and the other two know how stressful it is staying home all the time !

guess one of there staff must of told them ......

and i'm glad their Granny has shown she's down with us normal folk and cancelled her birthday gun salute, i was unsure if i should still carry on with mine ?


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## Marcel (Apr 19, 2020)

Talked to my wife’s cousin yesterday. She is working with people with Alzheimer. Last few weeks have been crazy. All staff is ill with corona apart from her and one colleague so she is taking care of 15 patients on her own. 5 out of the 15 already died from corona, only 2 patients have tested negative. Patients pull out their oxygen and refuse to drink. She expects others to die soon as well. This has been going on for the last few weeks so she’s quite exhausted at the moment.


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## rochie (Apr 19, 2020)

Sad news Marcel, i fear its the same here


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Sorry but for me in Aus that makes no sense - unless it a long forgotten screen shot from jaws



Its from jaws...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Talked to my wife’s cousin yesterday. She is working with people with Alzheimer. Last few weeks have been crazy. All staff is ill with corona apart from her and one colleague so she is taking care of 15 patients on her own. 5 out of the 15 already died from corona, only 2 patients have tested negative. Patients pull out their oxygen and refuse to drink. She expects others to die soon as well. This has been going on for the last few weeks so she’s quite exhausted at the moment.



Sorry to hear that.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 19, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 19th April
cases 178,972, +3,047, deaths 23,660, + 433, recovered 47,055, +2,128, tests 1,356,541, +50,708
fatality rate 13.2%
mortality rate 392 per million
test rate 22.5 per thousand
positive rate 13.2%
test rate today 841 per million
positive rate today 6%


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## mikewint (Apr 19, 2020)

I'm sure that Chris has heard/seen this news item: Greene County Missouri (Springfield, 3rd largest City, is located here) Apr. 17, demonstrating his social consciousness and knowledge of current news, a Greene County man ill with classic Corona-19 symptoms decided that he really need to go to work, his fever and cough not withstanding. Naturally, as a result, he potentially infected SIXTY-FIVE (65) of his co-workers 13 of which have already tested positive for Corona and the remainder are quarantined for 14 days.
Say "Thank You very Much Dumb Bass"


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## rochie (Apr 19, 2020)

Today's update was fun first question from Hugh Pim BBC reporter.

can you comment on shortages of ppe ?

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries

Look i think we need a grown up adult conversation about ppe !
Then proceded to very calmly tear him a new arse.

Loved it

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## gumbyk (Apr 19, 2020)

rochie said:


> Today's update was fun first question from Hugh Pim BBC reporter.
> 
> can you comment on shortages of ppe ?
> 
> ...


Well, that seems to be one common thread. 
Politicians: "We've got plenty of PPE!"
Healthcare workers: "We're having to re-use disposable PPE!"

Here, the day after the PM announced that we had good stocks of masks/gowns, etc they announced that they had used private companies contacts and supply chain to purchase millions more, so that they could by-pass normal bureaucracy.


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## rochie (Apr 19, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, that seems to be one common thread.
> Politicians: "We've got plenty of PPE!"
> Healthcare workers: "We're having to re-use disposable PPE!"
> 
> Here, the day after the PM announced that we had good stocks of masks/gowns, etc they announced that they had used private companies contacts and supply chain to purchase millions more, so that they could by-pass normal bureaucracy.


Dont think for one minute our government has got everything correct but a bit of balanced reporting would be nice !


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## Vincenzo (Apr 19, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I'm sure that Chris has heard/seen this news item: Greene County Missouri (Springfield, 3rd largest City, is located here) Apr. 17, demonstrating his social consciousness and knowledge of current news, a Greene County man ill with classic Corona-19 symptoms decided that he really need to go to work, his fever and cough not withstanding. Naturally, as a result, he potentially infected SIXTY-FIVE (65) of his co-workers 13 of which have already tested positive for Corona and the remainder are quarantined for 14 days.
> Say "Thank You very Much Dumb Bass"



This is a crime in your country?
In my is highly probable it is


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## tomo pauk (Apr 19, 2020)

rochie said:


> Today's update was fun first question from Hugh Pim BBC reporter.
> can you comment on shortages of ppe ?
> Deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries
> Look i think we need a grown up adult conversation about ppe !
> ...



Link, please


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## jetcal1 (Apr 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Talked to my wife’s cousin yesterday. She is working with people with Alzheimer. Last few weeks have been crazy. All staff is ill with corona apart from her and one colleague so she is taking care of 15 patients on her own. 5 out of the 15 already died from corona, only 2 patients have tested negative. Patients pull out their oxygen and refuse to drink. She expects others to die soon as well. This has been going on for the last few weeks so she’s quite exhausted at the moment.



I hope her cousin can weather the storm she is going through. Our thoughts are with her.


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## jetcal1 (Apr 19, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I'm sure that Chris has heard/seen this news item: Greene County Missouri (Springfield, 3rd largest City, is located here) Apr. 17, demonstrating his social consciousness and knowledge of current news, a Greene County man ill with classic Corona-19 symptoms decided that he really need to go to work, his fever and cough not withstanding. Naturally, as a result, he potentially infected SIXTY-FIVE (65) of his co-workers 13 of which have already tested positive for Corona and the remainder are quarantined for 14 days.
> Say "Thank You very Much Dumb Bass"


This gentleman needs to be prosecuted.

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## rochie (Apr 19, 2020)

tomo pauk said:


> Link, please


Sorry Tommo, it was live tv

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## tomo pauk (Apr 19, 2020)

rochie said:


> Sorry Tommo, it was live tv



Okay.
Our public TV also has it's moments - like how they annonounced that 'Tonight is the earthquake' in some city, instead of 'Last night there was an earthquake'. Or, 'statisticians will asses the damage buildings susuatined from the 'quake', thus replacing the people that deal with statics (= engineers) with people that do statistics (= economists).
All in 10 minutes.


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## MiTasol (Apr 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Talked to my wife’s cousin yesterday. She is working with people with Alzheimer. Last few weeks have been crazy. All staff is ill with corona apart from her and one colleague so she is taking care of 15 patients on her own. 5 out of the 15 already died from corona, only 2 patients have tested negative. Patients pull out their oxygen and refuse to drink. She expects others to die soon as well. This has been going on for the last few weeks so she’s quite exhausted at the moment.



That is bad news as she, and others in similar circumstances, will be more likely to get the disease as exhaustion will cause their safety measures to slip.


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## MiTasol (Apr 19, 2020)

rochie said:


> yes and the other two know how stressful it is staying home all the time !



That is because, unlike us mere humans, they are suffering from ADS*.

In their defense I must admit they have one of the worlds worst jobs - having to smile and be polite to (insert here the name(s) of your least favourite politician/dictator/creep/a**hole/ scumbag)

* Attention Deficit Syndrome

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## MiTasol (Apr 19, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, that seems to be one common thread.
> Politicians: "We've got plenty of PPE!"
> Healthcare workers: "We're having to re-use disposable PPE!".



And here they are bragging they just bought in a 747 load of PPE from China. Probably the same plane load that Italy, Spain, etc, etc, etc sent back because they were no @#$%^&* use.


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## pbehn (Apr 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And here they are bragging they just bought in a 747 load of PPE from China. Probably the same plane load that Italy, Spain, etc, etc, etc sent back because they were no @#$%^&* use.


If it flares up again in China no one will get any PPE out of China, the global experiment may be about to take a tragic nose dive, with national interest over ruling every sentiment, deal and agreement.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 19, 2020)

mikewint said:


> I'm sure that Chris has heard/seen this news item: Greene County Missouri (Springfield, 3rd largest City, is located here) Apr. 17, demonstrating his social consciousness and knowledge of current news, a Greene County man ill with classic Corona-19 symptoms decided that he really need to go to work, his fever and cough not withstanding. Naturally, as a result, he potentially infected SIXTY-FIVE (65) of his co-workers 13 of which have already tested positive for Corona and the remainder are quarantined for 14 days.
> Say "Thank You very Much Dumb Bass"



That kind of behavior is running rampant here in Missouri. So many people still think it’s a hoax.


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## gumbyk (Apr 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That kind of behavior is running rampant here in Missouri. So many people still think it’s a hoax.


Whereas here, he'd find himself under guard, pending a court appearance (likely via video) and then spending some quality alone time in jail. They've already jailed one guy who was coughing over people and didn't have the virus.


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## wuzak (Apr 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And here they are bragging they just bought in a 747 load of PPE from China. Probably the same plane load that Italy, Spain, etc, etc, etc sent back because they were no @#$%^&* use.



Probably the left-overs from the PPE that was bought a few months ago by China.


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## fubar57 (Apr 19, 2020)

About time but maybe a bit too late....https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...uging-reselling-of-medical-supplies-1.5537737


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## swampyankee (Apr 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And here they are bragging they just bought in a 747 load of PPE from China. Probably the same plane load that Italy, Spain, etc, etc, etc sent back because they were no @#$%^&* use.



US companies shipped millions in PPE _to _China in January, about the time the US government said there was not going to be a problem here.


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## ThomasP (Apr 20, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 19
cases 2,356, recovered 1,160, hospitalized 574, deaths 134, tested 45,716*
fatality rate 5.7%
mortality rate 23.5 per million
tests rate 8 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Tests are currently being used primarily for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 20, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 20th April
cases 181,228, +2,256, deaths 24,114 +454, recovered 48,877, +1,822, tests 1,398,024, +41,483
first time that active cases go down -20 
fatality rate 13.3%
mortality rate 400 per million
test rate 23.2 per thousand
positive rate 13%
test rate today 688 per million
positive rate today 5.4%

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## michaelmaltby (Apr 20, 2020)

thank you for the facts ....


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## gumbyk (Apr 20, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> US companies shipped millions in PPE _to _China in January, about the time the US government said there was not going to be a problem here.


Which means that they were ordered probably 3 months prior to that.


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## swampyankee (Apr 20, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Which means that they were ordered probably 3 months prior to that.



Possibly. It's Covid-19 because the disease caused by the virus was first reported in 20*19*. Unlike what some people seem to think, it wasn't a sequence number.


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## Gnomey (Apr 20, 2020)



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## Vincenzo (Apr 21, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 21st April
cases 183,957, +2,729, deaths 24,648, +534, recovered 51,600, +2,723, tests 1,450,150, +52,126, active cases 107,709, -528
fatality rate 13.4%
mortality rate 409 per million
test rate 24 per thousand
positive rate 12.7%
test rate today 864 per million
positive rate today 5.2%


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## mikewint (Apr 21, 2020)

-Oil prices continued to collapse Tuesday, in turn driving stock markets lower. As of 11 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 was down 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 538 points, or 2.3%, to 23,104, and the Nasdaq was down 3.4%. A barrel of U.S. oil to be delivered in May was at $3.81, after falling to negative $37.63 on Monday. A barrel of U.S. oil for delivery in June dropped $5.48, or 27%, to $14.94. Brent crude, the international oil standard, fell nearly 22% to $20.05 per barrel.

-The U.S. will need to be able to perform millions of coronavirus tests each week before the country can reopen, two new reports say. A plan from the Rockefeller Foundation said the U.S. should expand testing capacity to 3 million tests per week within the next two months and 30 million tests per week over the next six months. A proposal by Harvard University's Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics said the country will need to deliver at least 5 million tests per day by early June to begin reopening. It says as many as 20 million tests per day would be needed to fully remobilize the economy, ideally by late July. So far, the U.S. has performed only about 4 million coronavirus tests, according to CNN, and governors have reported continued shortages of the materials needed to run tests, from chemical reagents to swabs.

-The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized a COVID-19 diagnostic test that allows a person to collect samples with the included nasal swabs at home and send them to a laboratory for testing using LabCorp’s Pixel by LabCorp COVID-19 Test home collection kit. LabCorp intends to make the kits available to consumers in most states, with a doctor’s order, in the coming weeks, the FDA said in a news release.

-States are moving ahead with reopening plans. On Monday, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp said fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, hair and nail salons and massage therapy businesses can reopen as early Friday. Theaters and restaurants will be allowed to open on Monday.

-The mayors of Atlanta and Augusta and other Georgia cities pushed back against Gov. Kemp’s decision to allow more businesses to reopen and say they were caught off guard by his announcement. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottom told ABC News, “I will continue to use my voice as mayor of Atlanta to ask people to continue to stay home, follow the science and exercise common sense.” Hardie Davis Jr., mayor of Augusta, told CNN, “We are at a place where we’re putting folks in harm’s way as opposed to taking these grave measures to continue to flatten the curve.” Savannah Mayor Van Johnson told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Kemp's move is "reckless, it's premature and it's dangerous." Mayor Bo Dorough of Albany, the epicenter of one of Georgia’s biggest outbreaks, called the rollback dangerous.

-South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said Monday that department stores and other retail businesses deemed “nonessential,” such as sporting goods stores, book, music, shoe and craft stores, jewelry stores, floral shops and other luggage and leather goods stores, can reopen this week.

-Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee announced his statewide stay-at-home order will expire April 30, and most businesses in 89 counties will be allowed to reopen May 1.


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## Marcel (Apr 21, 2020)

We’re having the first huge drop in IC occupation. Seems like we’re heading there right way.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We’re having the first huge drop in IC occupation. Seems like we’re heading there right way.



At least somebody is...


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## tomo pauk (Apr 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We’re having the first huge drop in IC occupation. Seems like we’re heading there right way.



We're probably also heading the same way here in Croatia - about 20-25 newly tested positive average for the last 3-4 days.Yesterday there were no deaths, and just 10 new positives.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study


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## Zipper730 (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study


Is it wrong that I'm not surprised at all...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Is it wrong that I'm not surprised at all...



Nope. I’m not surprised either. It’s why I said it was stupid too keep touting it as a miracle drug in WH press conferences even though medical experts were saying all along there was no proof of it. It’s also why I got so upset at someone in our forum telling people to take it even though they are not a medical professional.

To many people from the bottom up think they are experts in things they are not.

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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Nope. I’m not surprised either. It’s why I said it was stupid too keep touting it as a miracle drug in WH press conferences even though medical experts were saying all along there was no proof of it. It’s also why I go so upset at someone in our forum telling people to take it even though they are not a medical professional.
> 
> To many people from the bottom up think they are experts in things they are not.


Not sure how accurate this is, but I heard that they were pulling the original paper, because it had some serious flaws.


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

5 new cases and 1 new death in New Zealand yesterday. And its just been announced that we've got three more weeks in lockdown....
I think it going a bit too far here now.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Not sure how accurate this is, but I heard that they were pulling the original paper, because it had some serious flaws.



Who knows, but the point still stands. Don’t push things before they are confirmed.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> 5 new cases and 1 new death in New Zealand yesterday. And its just been announced that we've got three more weeks in lockdown....
> I think it going a bit too far here now.



It could be they are concerned about a possible 2nd wave.


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It could be they are concerned about a possible 2nd wave.


We're almost at two weeks with no infections in my region. If they lifted restrictions regionally, and restricted travel between regions (like they initially said) things will be a lot more bearable.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> We're almost at two weeks with no infections in my region. If they lifted restrictions regionally, and restricted travel between regions (like they initially said) things will be a lot more bearable.



crossing my fingers for you.

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## MiTasol (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> If they lifted restrictions regionally, and restricted travel between regions things will be a lot more bearable.



I have relatives trapped in NZ by CV who have been in Coromandel since the UK locked down and prevented them returning home. Over Easter the population doubled with people who drove from Auckland and Hamilton despite the travel restrictions. The ones who appeared either side of the relatives arrived in the early morning and bragged they left home at 3am to avoid the police.

Do you honestly think those morons would stay in their regions if restrictions were eased?

Maybe ease the restrictions and add the Honduras solution to non-essential travel - your car and all its contents is impounded and you pay storage fees for the rest of the lockdown or your boat and its contents are taken off shore and sunk - would work. 

MAYBE the thought of walking home from Coromandel to Auckland or Hamilton would keep these clowns home but I doubt it.

Also there are always this sort of clown. 
French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK The first story I saw on this said the organizer told the French police to issue a fine which he would pay and then they must let his group get on the helicopters an go to Cannes.


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## MiTasol (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study



There was an interesting analysis on the Australian Broadcasting Corp news by their health expert several nights ago but there was no print version of the story or I would have passed it to Gnomey for his comment and posting by him if he thought it appropriate. It claimed that both CV-19 and Hydroxychloroquine extend one particular segment of the heart beat which would result in a higher risk of death.
DerAdlerIstGelandet's link *appears* to support that ABC story.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Is it wrong that I'm not surprised at all...



This story is the epitome of what is wrong with the press. First, it seems it was written by a person in high school, and not a very smart one at that. Secondly, the writer did not even delve into to a major problem with the study, because it already confirms her bias. The reports assessment of hydroxychloroquine seems contradictory and scientifically weak. The crux of my assessment is on page 11-12, where the doctors admit that, “hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin.” So, basically, sicker patients were prescribed HC or HC+AZ, and a higher percentage of the sicker patients were ventilated and died, whereas less sick patients were not prescribed these drugs and the less sick patients recovered. Profound.

But they explain this away when they concluded that, “the increased risk of overall mortality in the hydroxychloroquine-only group persisted after adjusting for the propensity of being treated with the drug. That there was no increased risk of ventilation in the hydroxychloroquine-only group suggests that mortality in this group might be attributable to drug effects on or dysfunction in non-respiratory vital organ systems.” Might be? They are implying that the hydroxychloroquine treatment is killing the patients more than helping. Might be? This conclusion was not supported by any data in the study or any information about these patients, but rather they cited another study that found HC to be “associated with cardiac toxicity. The fact that these patients were sicker when they come to the hospitals is dismissed by a footnote. I thought this was science and that science was supposed to be based on observation, not assumptions. Why aren’t lupus or rheumatoid arthritis patients dropping dead with toxic hearts?

This would not be so problematic if they did not contradict themselves. Later in the report, they wrote that, “data from ongoing, randomized controlled studies will prove informative when they emerge. Until then, the findings from this retrospective study suggest caution in using hydroxychloroquine in hospitalized Covid-19 patients, particularly when not combined with azithromycin.” From this last bit I concluded that the report is saying that azithromycin is some type of miracle drug that will eliminate the deadly results of hydroxychloroquine.

HC = death? (Remember: Trump, “what do you have to lose?’ CNN’s mantra, “only your life!”)
HC+AZ = a prudent treatment? According to their own numbers the HC+AZ treatment produced the fewest needed ventilations 6.9% and the greatest number of those discharged without ventilation (82.2%)

HC is not a miracle cure, but to say it doesn’t work is not scientific because even this study clearly suggests it has a role.

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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> HC is not a miracle cure, but to say it doesn’t work is not scientific because even this study clearly suggests it has a role.


Which study? This one? Hydroxychloroquine-COVID-19 study did not meet publishing society’s “expected standard”


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I have relatives trapped in NZ by CV who have been in Coromandel since the UK locked down and prevented them returning home. Over Easter the population doubled with people who drove from Auckland and Hamilton despite the travel restrictions. The ones who appeared either side of the relatives arrived in the early morning and bragged they left home at 3am to avoid the police.


And yet the same thing didn't happen in the Marlborough Sounds. Again, the rest of the country is being punished for a few idiots, enabled by the fact that we've got a 9-5 police force (unless its for drink driving...)


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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Which study? This one? Hydroxychloroquine-COVID-19 study did not meet publishing society’s “expected standard”



No, sorry, the study by the VA cited in this article.

More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study


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## MiTasol (Apr 21, 2020)

In post 1771 I referred to an Australian ABC report on how Hydroxychloroquine depresses one part of the heart beat. 

The presenter is a qualified doctor and an example of his work is his investigative program on scientific fraud and the well-known gynecologist Dr William McBride. The program exposed fraudulent research and led to Dr William McBride being stripped of his medical registration. For those who have never heard of Dr William McBride he is the man who proved that birth defects were linked to thalidamide. 

This is the video report - go to 2m40 for the part on how the heart works - Dr Norman Swan looks at coronavirus treatment

As far as I am concerned for all medications - if a Doctor does not prescribe it, *do not take it*

I think it is also important to remember that certain persons who promote certain treatments have shares in the manufacturers of those treatments.

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## ThomasP (Apr 21, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 20
cases 2,470, recovered 1,202, hospitalized 602, deaths 143, tested 46,850*
fatality rate 5.8%
mortality rate 25 per million
tests rate 8.2 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Tests are currently being used primarily for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> This story is the epitome of what is wrong with the press. First, it seems it was written by a person in high school, and not a very smart one at that. Secondly, the writer did not even delve into to a major problem with the study, because it already confirms her bias. The reports assessment of hydroxychloroquine seems contradictory and scientifically weak. The crux of my assessment is on page 11-12, where the doctors admit that, “hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin.” So, basically, sicker patients were prescribed HC or HC+AZ, and a higher percentage of the sicker patients were ventilated and died, whereas less sick patients were not prescribed these drugs and the less sick patients recovered. Profound.
> 
> But they explain this away when they concluded that, “the increased risk of overall mortality in the hydroxychloroquine-only group persisted after adjusting for the propensity of being treated with the drug. That there was no increased risk of ventilation in the hydroxychloroquine-only group suggests that mortality in this group might be attributable to drug effects on or dysfunction in non-respiratory vital organ systems.” Might be? They are implying that the hydroxychloroquine treatment is killing the patients more than helping. Might be? This conclusion was not supported by any data in the study or any information about these patients, but rather they cited another study that found HC to be “associated with cardiac toxicity. The fact that these patients were sicker when they come to the hospitals is dismissed by a footnote. I thought this was science and that science was supposed to be based on observation, not assumptions. Why aren’t lupus or rheumatoid arthritis patients dropping dead with toxic hearts?
> 
> ...



But there is the problem, not a single person here is saying that it will not work. Those of us skeptical of it are saying to not tout it as a miracle drug like so many “not so experts” have done. Like it or not, medical experts are saying it is not showing the promise that some are pushing.

Take your choice of news articles and they all pretty much state that. Well I guess it just depends what news supports a person’s preconceived beliefs.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> In post 1771 I referred to an Australian ABC report on how Hydroxychloroquine depresses one part of the heart beat.
> 
> The presenter is a qualified doctor and an example of his work is his investigative program on scientific fraud and the well-known gynecologist Dr William McBride. The program exposed fraudulent research and led to Dr William McBride being stripped of his medical registration. For those who have never heard of Dr William McBride he is the man who proved that birth defects were linked to thalidamide.
> 
> ...



Ding, ding, ding, ding!

Tell him what he has won! You perfectly summarized exactly the crux of the problem here. Why are drugs not tested or proven being pushed so hard, despite many medical experts saying not so fast.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ding, ding, ding, ding!
> 
> Tell him what he has won! You perfectly summarized exactly the crux of the problem here. Why are drugs not tested or proven being pushed so hard, despite many medical experts saying not so fast.



Because thousands of people are dying daily from a novel virus and doctors and medical professions in hospitals want to save people's lives.


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## pbehn (Apr 21, 2020)

Ive just seen two "anti vaxers" arguing about taking or not taking a vaccine that doesn't exist. Im am taking up debating how many fairies can dance on a pin.


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## fubar57 (Apr 21, 2020)

4


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Because thousands of people are dying daily from a novel virus and doctors and medical professions in hospitals want to save people's lives.


So, they give them drugs that are as likely to make it worse as better?


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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> So, they give them drugs that are as likely to make it worse as better?



Chemotherapy or radiation treatment. These fight cancer and they do damage. Sure there approved, but if I had a family member on a ventilator and they wanted to live, I would choose the treatment that might save them if if it did damage.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Because thousands of people are dying daily from a novel virus and doctors and medical professions in hospitals want to save people's lives.



You are right, they care about saving lives. The doctors are the ones saying to hold everyone’s horses regarding the drug.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Ive just seen two "anti vaxers" arguing about taking or not taking a vaccine that doesn't exist. Im am taking up debating how many fairies can dance on a pin.





An old school friend of mine is a huge antivaxer. I’ll give you two guesses whether he believes the 5G conspiracy theory BS as well.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> So, they give them drugs that are as likely to make it worse as better?



Its a poor comparison to compare chemo to taking malaria drugs for CV19. Chemo is at least approved, and has shown to be effective. Doctors from the beginning were saying that so far tests for the drug have had very limited results in fighting CV19, and that there needed to be more testing before it is approved.


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Its a poor comparison to compare chemo to taking malaria drugs for CV19. Chemo is at least approved, and has shown to be effective. Doctors from the beginning were saying that so far tests for the drug have had very limited results in fighting CV19, and that there needed to be more testing before it is approved.


And chemo walks a very fine line between killing the cancer and killing the patient.

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## pbehn (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> An old school friend of mine is a huge antivaxer. I’ll give you two guesses whether he believes the 5G conspiracy theory BS as well.


Novak Djokovic says he wont accept to have to have a vaccine, nice to have seen you play Novak, enjoy retirement. The world is going mad.


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## pbehn (Apr 21, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> 4


Has to be an odd number to balance the genders.


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## fubar57 (Apr 21, 2020)

If you include all genders......57

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Novak Djokovic says he wont accept to have to have a vaccine, nice to have seen you play Novak, enjoy retirement. The world is going mad.



Then you had the 60 year old gentlemen from Ohio who was very outspoken that the virus was fake, and a political ploy. He called social distancing rules bullshit. Well he got the coronavirus and died on April 15th.

I feel for his family. His ignorance took him from them.

Man who called COVID-19 lockdown 'bull****' dies from the virus


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## pbehn (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Then you had the 60 year old gentlemen from Ohio who was very outspoken that the virus was fake, and a political ploy. He called social distancing rules bullshit. Well he got the coronavirus and died on April 15th.
> 
> I feel for his family. His ignorance took him from them.
> 
> Man who called COVID-19 lockdown 'bull****' dies from the virus


That's just so sad, its like every year we have to have warnings here telling people A) not to go to the seafront in a storm and B) If your dog ends up in the sea don't go after it. It still happens year after year dog goes in, owner tries to save it owner drowns and the dog gets out. Some people just wont learn.


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## at6 (Apr 21, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Ive just seen two "anti vaxers" arguing about taking or not taking a vaccine that doesn't exist. Im am taking up debating how many fairies can dance on a pin.





fubar57 said:


> 4


5 if they're from San Francisco.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 21, 2020)

I would figure looking at some numbers, there was a report that said the virus was present in the stool at 50-52 days after diagnosis, and the illness is often diagnosed approximately 2-12 days after becoming infected, with the median being around 11.5, and one case taking 27 days: This would mean that you would have a person effectively able to infect others from as little as 54 to as much as 79 days after the fact with a typical figure of around 63.5 days.

Think about those numbers for a second. Today is April 21 (which will change in 75 minutes), and the 111th day of the year. So, basically, you'd see the last person infected in this wave being non-infectious around day 190, which is July 9th. Not too long ago, I made an estimate that we'd probably need to keep the country closed for 75-100 days (I made this estimate on the 18th), and I'm unfortunately closer to accurate than I'd have liked to have been.

This would require the country to remain on lockdown all the way until July 26 for this to completely go away with no travel into and out of the United States during this period.

As a piece of advice, I would advocate people get masks -- you don't need N95's, but masks that would be of some degree of medical grade because of the fact that they usually keep others from getting infected by you: This might not sound so smart, but it can't live very long outside the body, and this would starve it of hosts. Once it runs out of hosts, it's amount of time is very limited.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m steeling this.



I think another side effect of the virus is poor spelling and grammar.

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 21, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Im am taking up debating how many fairies can dance on a pin.


40
The explanation is simple: 40, as used, is a type of "a month of Sundays" measure, implying a finite but not definite quantity.
Basis for this is that Angels (faeries) are real, but not well enough understood.
Therefore, how many can dance on the head of a pin is finite, but not definite.
Ergo, 40.

Those silly conundra weren't all silly.


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## MiTasol (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Chemotherapy or radiation treatment. These fight cancer and they do damage. Sure there approved, but if I had a family member on a ventilator and they wanted to live, I would choose the treatment that might save them if if it did damage.



I have a good friend who has had chemo for her leukemia.

She says *never never never again* - the cure is worse than the problem


pbehn said:


> That's just so sad, its like every year we have to have warnings here telling people A) not to go to the seafront in a storm and B) If your dog ends up in the sea don't go after it. It still happens year after year dog goes in, owner tries to save it owner drowns and the dog gets out. Some people just wont learn.



And others die trying to save a football that costs less than a second of the family income

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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I have a good friend who has had chemo for her leukemia.
> 
> She says *never never never again* - the cure is worse than the problem


My father-in-law says the same thing after throat cancer.


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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I would figure looking at some numbers, there was a report that said the virus was present in the stool at 50-52 days after diagnosis, and the illness is often diagnosed approximately 2-12 days after becoming infected, with the median being around 11.5, and one case taking 27 days: This would mean that you would have a person effectively able to infect others from as little as 54 to as much as 79 days after the fact with a typical figure of around 63.5 days.
> 
> Think about those numbers for a second. Today is April 21 (which will change in 75 minutes), and the 111th day of the year. So, basically, you'd see the last person infected in this wave being non-infectious around day 190, which is July 9th. Not too long ago, I made an estimate that we'd probably need to keep the country closed for 75-100 days (I made this estimate on the 18th), and I'm unfortunately closer to accurate than I'd have liked to have been.


Except we practice fairly good hygiene where faeces is involved. I know I try to keep it as far away from my face as possible...

Oh, and is the virus viable?


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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Its a poor comparison to compare chemo to taking malaria drugs for CV19. Chemo is at least approved, and has shown to be effective. Doctors from the beginning were saying that so far tests for the drug have had very limited results in fighting CV19, and that there needed to be more testing before it is approved.



I was not comparing the two. The point I was making was that everyday people take medicines that do damage to their bodies for the purpose of fighting a disease. Also, I don't quite understand the hang-up about the drug not being approved for use against COVid-19. There are dozens of drugs that are prescribed for off-label uses and HC was approved for use in 1955. There are millions prescribed the drug every year just in the US. The dangers and side effects are well-known. Now, yes it needs more study, and I believe that is what most studies and criticisms conclude, but in the meantime I'm on the side of letting doctors decide how to best treat their patients because they are the one's that will find what really works through trial and error. There are also other drugs that are being used as a treatment, but there does not seem to be such a backlash against them., nor were they approved to fight the disease either. Studies are nice when we have the time to go through all the protocols, labs tests, animal and human subject tests, etc, but treatments need to be devised because the economic devastation caused by the societal shutdown is only getting worse. The cost of a barrel of oil was fell below zero today. Now I am not a fan of big oil corporations, Saudi sheiks, or Russian oligarchs, but that is not good.

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## gumbyk (Apr 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I was not comparing the two. The point I was making was that everyday people take medicines that do damage to their bodies for the purpose of fighting a disease. Also, I don't quite understand the hang-up about the drug not being approved for use against COVid-19. There are dozens of drugs that are prescribed for off-label uses and HC was approved for use in 1955. There are millions prescribed the drug every year just in the US. The dangers and side effects are well-known. Now, yes it needs more study, and I believe that is what most studies and criticisms conclude, but in the meantime I'm on the side of letting doctors decide how to best treat their patients because they are the one's that will find what really works through trial and error. There are also other drugs that are being used as a treatment, but there does not seem to be such a backlash against them., nor were they approved to fight the disease either. Studies are nice when we have the time to go through all the protocols, labs tests, animal and human subject tests, etc, but treatments need to be devised because the economic devastation caused by the societal shutdown is only getting worse. The cost of a barrel of oil was fell below zero today. Now I am not a fan of big oil corporations, Saudi sheiks, or Russian oligarchs, but that is not good.


Except its not the doctors who are recommending it.
Patient turns up, demands the treatment they've seen advertised (or endorsed by a President), so the doctor gives in and prescribes it. After all, the customer is always right, huh?

The testing is also to find out if it can make it _worse_ for patients. Would you still be so keen to take the drug if you were told "here, take this pill, it _may_ make you better... or it may make you worse"

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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Except its not the doctors who are recommending it.
> Patient turns up, demands the treatment they've seen advertised (or endorsed by a President), so the doctor gives in and prescribes it. After all, the customer is always right, huh?
> 
> The testing is also to find out if it can make it _worse_ for patients. Would you still be so keen to take the drug if you were told "here, take this pill, it _may_ make you better... or it may make you worse"




Is the alternative death? Not trying to be an ass here. but if its a choice between experimental treatment or dying. I'll choose the former and live with the consequences.


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## fubar57 (Apr 21, 2020)

Probably mentioned somewhere here but bears mentioning again given the last few posts...

Hydroxychloroquine: Side effects, dosage, COVID-19 (under study)

https://www.google.ca/search?newwin...&ved=0ahUKEwiqrtGij_voAhVVsp4KHX-fCNkQ4dUDCAs


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## ThomasP (Apr 21, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 21
cases 2,567, recovered 1,254, hospitalized 629, deaths 160, tested 47,697*
fatality rate 6.2%
mortality rate 28.1 per million
tests rate 8.4 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Tests are currently being used primarily for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I was not comparing the two. The point I was making was that everyday people take medicines that do damage to their bodies for the purpose of fighting a disease. *Also, I don't quite understand the hang-up about the drug not being approved for use against COVid-19. * There are dozens of drugs that are prescribed for off-label uses and HC was approved for use in 1955. There are millions prescribed the drug every year just in the US. The dangers and side effects are well-known. *Now, yes it needs more study, and I believe that is what most studies and criticisms conclude, but in the meantime I'm on the side of letting doctors decide how to best treat their patients because they are the one's that will find what really works through trial and error. * There are also other drugs that are being used as a treatment, but there does not seem to be such a backlash against them., nor were they approved to fight the disease either. Studies are nice when we have the time to go through all the protocols, labs tests, animal and human subject tests, etc, but treatments need to be devised because the economic devastation caused by the societal shutdown is only getting worse. The cost of a barrel of oil was fell below zero today. Now I am not a fan of big oil corporations, Saudi sheiks, or Russian oligarchs, but that is not good.



See the highlighted points...

No hangup. Why? Because the second highlighted point is what was being said the entire damn time.

Unfortunately despite doctors saying that it was not effective, it was still being touted as a miracle drug. The point was, and I will repeat this one final time...

If someone is not a Doctor, they should not be telling people to take it on national television.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Except its not the doctors who are recommending it.
> Patient turns up, demands the treatment they've seen advertised (or endorsed by a President), so the doctor gives in and prescribes it. After all, the customer is always right, huh?



Thank you...


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## ThomasP (Apr 22, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota report, April 21

In Minnesota, the supply of the special test swabs is not a limiting factor at the current time. However, it is a problem in some states/areas in the US. A possible reason:

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## MiTasol (Apr 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I don't quite understand the hang-up about the drug not being approved for use against COVid-19.
> 
> in the meantime I'm on the side of letting doctors decide how to best treat their patients because they are the one's that will find what really works through trial and error.



On the first item - the hang up for responsible doctors is that they know that Covid-19 and HC both extend the QT phase of a persons heartbeat. * If the QT phase extends too far you die - no ifs, no buts, no exceptions.*

*MODERATORS - PLEASE FEEL FREE TO EDIT THE FOLLOWING IF IT BREACHES POLICY*

On the second statement, the vast majority of doctors are far too busy at present to research the few recorded known affects of HC on Covid-19 (after all they first have to filter out all the crap in social media and from those with a vested interest in greater HC sales).

Being harassed by patients who have listened to Farcebook and other sites, or to a person who owns shares in a HC manufacturer and who says it can't hurt to try it (because the more you buy the bigger the dividends I get), are likely to give in to the relentless pressure and prescribe it.

If the person who demand it then dies or commits suicide (that is a known side effect of HC) then you can be absolutely positive that, once more detailed research shows how dangerous HC is, the next of kin will sue the poor bloody overworked overstressed doctor because they cannot sue Farcebook and the vested interests pushing for the use of HC. 

My guess is ambulance chaser attorneys are already lining up cases and preparing for a feeding frenzy.


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## MiTasol (Apr 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Is the alternative death? Not trying to be an ass here. but if its a choice between experimental treatment or dying. I'll choose the former and live with the consequences.



Mounting evidence is that HC attacks not just the lungs but the heart and other organs.

If you are one of the many where Covid19 attacks the heart then HC will *multiply *the effect of Covid-19s damage so it is more than likely* you will not live* with the consequences.

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## at6 (Apr 22, 2020)

So far only 471 cases here in Fresno with 7 dead. Not good but not bad either. People screaming to open the country too soon will regret it when the virus explodes with an even greater vengeance. As bad as the "lock down" may be, the consequences are even worse. The big problem is that the younger generations were taught that they are entitled to instant gratification. I was always too poor to afford any gratification and had to learn patience plus waiting. H&ll, maybe I am old.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> but if its a choice between experimental treatment or dying.



Careful not to step in the BS as you make your way through life, young man. If the intended medication doesn't prevent you from getting the virus, then not only have you suffered from the side-effects, your chances of dying have increased because you didn't heed the advise of people who know what they are talking about. _Doctors, medical professionals, nurses, scientists. _Those are the people you listen to and take the advice of, *not* former reality TV show hosts, opinonated media personalities or scaremongers on dodgy websites.

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## pbehn (Apr 22, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Except we practice fairly good hygiene where faeces is involved. I know I try to keep it as far away from my face as possible...
> 
> Oh, and is the virus viable?


I read that improved sanitation actually led to the polio epidemics of last century. this virus malarkey is more complicated than I thought possible.


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## rochie (Apr 22, 2020)

News channels in a feeding frenzy about the UK government's failure to join the EU's ppe procurement plan last month !

Trouble is said plan has yet to deliver a single item of ppe to anybody so it didnt make a single bit of difference !


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## pbehn (Apr 22, 2020)

rochie said:


> News channels in a feeding frenzy about the UK government's failure to join the EU's ppe procurement plan last month !
> 
> Trouble is said plan has yet to deliver a single item of ppe to anybody so it didnt make a single bit of difference !


When you read the details of that scheme it was dreamed up by a schemer. Basically the EU takes money from states and places bulk orders around the world, then distributes it as the EU sees fit. This doesn't produce any more PPE, it drives up the price then gives it to people the EU wants to bribe or curry favour with. If they were setting up a factory or factories to mass produce the basic plastics and other materials then make the basics by the million to help all in Europe and the world I would have been impressed. Of course that is the last thing on their minds. They have spent six months ruminating on a process to make things worse but as usual they are so late to the game it will be finished with by the time they are ready, for the next time.


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## rochie (Apr 22, 2020)

pbehn said:


> When you read the details of that scheme it was dreamed up by a schemer. Basically the EU takes money from states and places bulk orders around the world, then distributes it as the EU sees fit. This doesn't produce any more PPE, it drives up the price then gives it to people the EU wants to bribe or curry favour with. If they were setting up a factory or factories to mass produce the basic plastics and other materials then make the basics by the million to help all in Europe and the world I would have been impressed. Of course that is the last thing on their minds. They have spent six months ruminating on a process to make things worse but as usual they are so late to the game it will be finished with by the time they are ready, for the next time.


Exactly, but its not going to stop whichever BBC correspondent asking why we delayed joinng this holy grail of ppe procurement schemes that would've saved thousands of lives during this crisis !

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## Vincenzo (Apr 22, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 22th April
cases 187,327, +3,370, deaths 25,085, +437, recovered 54,543, + 2,943, active cases 107,699, -10, tests 1,513,251, +63,101
fatality rate 13.4%
mortality rate 416 per million
test rate 25.1 per thousand
positive rate 12.4%
test rate today 1,046 per million
positive rate today 5.3%

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 22, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 22th April
> cases 187,327, +3,370, deaths 25,085, +437, recovered 54,543, + 2,943, active cases 107,699, -10, tests 1,513,251, +63,101
> fatality rate 13.4%
> mortality rate 416 per million
> ...



Looks like your numbers keep coming down. Crossing my fingers for you all.


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## Zipper730 (Apr 22, 2020)

The reopening of the country at this point would be a disaster.

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## Airframes (Apr 22, 2020)

Britain's Chief Medical Officer has stated that we can expect to live with restrictions for the rest of the year. 
To be expected, I guess, as this virus is NOT going to just go away and, until a cure and or preventative drugs are found, the situation, globally, will remain very serious indeed.
Those who think otherwise should start to realise this, and observe the local rules, instead of protesting that they can't do this or do that. If they don't, then there very well could be no this or that to do in the future !


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## mikewint (Apr 22, 2020)

-Two pet cats in New York tested positive for COVID-19, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a news release Wednesday. They are the first pets in the U.S. to test positive. The cats lived in separate areas of the state and were tested after they exhibited symptoms of mild respiratory illness. In one case, the cat's owner had previously tested positive. In the other, no one in the house was known to have COVID-19. The second case may have come from an asymptomatic person in the household or from contact with someone outside the home, the CDC said. While the agency says there's no evidence that pets play a role in spreading COVID-19, it recommends that pets not be allowed to interact with anyone outside their household, cats be kept outdoors and social distancing be maintained when walking or exercising pets. 
-A total of 777 crew members on board the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, the Navy said in an update. Some 3,900 results came back negative, with 99% of the crew now having been tested. More than 4,000 sailors have moved off the ship. Overall, 1,298 sailors Navy-wide have tested positive. 
-*The state of Missouri *is suing the Chinese government over the coronavirus pandemic. "TheChinese government lied to the world about the danger and contagious nature of COVID-19, silenced whistleblowers, and did little to stop the spread of the disease," State Attorney General Eric Schmitt said in a statement. Experts say the lawsuit has no chance of success, and critics contend it and similar moves to discredit China are politically motivated, the Washington Post reported. More than 6,200 people in Missouri have been confirmed to have COVID-19 and at least 229 have died.
-A lawyer in Florida has sued Gov. Ron DeSantis and officials in Hillsborough County over restrictions imposed to help stop the spread of coronavirus, alleging the emergency orders violated both the state and U.S. constitutions, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Florida has the eighth highest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, with more than 27,800. At least 867 people have died in the state.


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## gumbyk (Apr 22, 2020)

And now the real toll is becoming evident....
28,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis


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## pbehn (Apr 22, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Britain's Chief Medical Officer has stated that we can expect to live with restrictions for the rest of the year.
> To be expected, I guess, as this virus is NOT going to just go away and, until a cure and or preventative drugs are found, the situation, globally, will remain very serious indeed.
> Those who think otherwise should start to realise this, and observe the local rules, instead of protesting that they can't do this or do that. If they don't, then there very well could be no this or that to do in the future !


Chris Whitty didn't say anything different to what he and all the other people he works with have been saying from day one. It is the media who have had a sudden change of heart, perhaps they decided to listen for once. Rigby Kuenssberg and Peston along with all the others have been talking about lifting the lockdown and "getting back to normal" among themselves for weeks without any reference to what is going on, it seems to have dawned on them suddenly that it wont happen.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 22, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Careful not to step in the BS as you make your way through life, young man. If the intended medication doesn't prevent you from getting the virus, then not only have you suffered from the side-effects, your chances of dying have increased because you didn't heed the advise of people who know what they are talking about. _Doctors, medical professionals, nurses, scientists. _Those are the people you listen to and take the advice of, *not* former reality TV show hosts, opinonated media personalities or scaremongers on dodgy websites.



Thank you for your sage advice and I agree. But I you are reading into something I did not say. I never said the drug will prevent the disease or that I would accept it as a preventative. My remark that I would take as an alternative to death was not some rhetorical gesture or hyperbole to cause a reaction. What I meant was that if I were put on a ventilator, which means my lungs were no longer working and the next step was suffocation and death, I would not oppose my family choosing an untested or experimental treatment if it might save my life. Especially when the drug is prescribed to millions and millions of people every year. Sure there may be side-effects. What drug does not have a laundry list of side effects? There is already a very high probability that I am going to die. This is the situation I have been talking about in my posts. Doctors do not have many options in the scenario I just mentioned? Sure the plasma treatments will be safer but we don't have enough right now for dying patients. 

As for your second point, I never said people should be administered the drug because the word came out of Trump's mouth or I saw some talking head on TV touting success stories. Trump's inept attempt to give the country hope did not and will not shape my opinion on the subject. My position has always been to let medical professions decide and hope they are competent. And I know that doctors are using HC+AZ on high risk patients. Unfortunately, the whole topic has been politicized and all I was trying to do was have a discussion of the topic and not push a political agenda. This is not a veiled jab at any one, it is only a statement of my intent.

Everyone stay safe and sane.

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## Sid327 (Apr 22, 2020)




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## gumbyk (Apr 22, 2020)

Sid327 said:


>



You owe me 3 minutes for wasting my time with that bullshit.

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## MiTasol (Apr 22, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Probably mentioned somewhere here but bears mentioning again given the last few posts...
> Hydroxychloroquine: Side effects, dosage, COVID-19 (under study)



To expand on my previous post about HC causing heart attacks and suicide the above link includes the following and lots of information under the headings I left in. 

NOTE THAT THIS MEDICATION *CAN *ALSO CAUSE BRONCHOSPASM - that is a tightening of the muscles that line the airways in your lungs. When these muscles tighten, your airways narrow. Narrowed airways don’t let as much air in or out of your lungs. This limits the amount of oxygen that enters your blood,* just like Corona Virus does.*

I have edited out far more than I left in and made a couple of items bold but all the bold warnings are in the original document - *this stuff is dangerous and should never be taken without the prescribing doctor knowing your FULL medical history*.
************

Serious side effects and their symptoms can include the following:

blurred vision or other vision changes, which may be permanent in some cases
*heart disease, including heart failure and issues with your heart rhythm; some cases have been fatal*
ringing in your ears or hearing loss
angioedema (rapid swelling of your skin)
hives
*mild or severe **bronchospasm*
sore throat
*severe hypoglycemia*
unusual bleeding or bruising
blue-black skin color
muscle weakness
hair loss or changes in hair color
*abnormal mood changes*
*mental health effects, including suicidal thoughts*
*SUICIDE PREVENTION*
If you know someone at immediate risk of self-harm, suicide, or hurting another person:

Ask the tough question: “Are you considering suicide?”
Listen to the person without judgment.
Call 911 or the local emergency number, or text TALK to 741741 to communicate with a trained crisis counselor.
Stay with the person until professional help arrives.
Try to remove any weapons, medications, or other potentially harmful objects.
If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide, a prevention hotline can help. The National Suicide Prevention Lifeline is available 24 hours a day at 1-800-273-8255. During a crisis, people who are hard of hearing should call 1-800-799-4889.
Click here for more links and local resources.

*Hydroxychloroquine may interact with other medications*
Examples of drugs that can cause interactions with hydroxychloroquine are listed below.
*Heart drugs*
Taking *digoxin* with hydroxychloroquine may increase the levels of digoxin in your body. This may increase your risk of side effects from digoxin.
*Insulin and other diabetes drugs*
Hydroxychloroquine and diabetes drugs all decrease your blood sugar level. Taking hydroxychloroquine with these drugs could cause hypoglycemia (low blood sugar). Your doctor may need to reduce your dosage of insulin or the other diabetes drugs.
Examples of other diabetes drugs include:
*Drugs that affect heart rhythm*
*Hydroxychloroquine should not be taken with other drugs that could cause heart arrhythmias (irregular heart rate or rhythm). Taking hydroxychloroquine with these drugs could cause dangerous arrhythmias. *Examples of these drugs include:
*Certain malaria drugs*
Taking hydroxychloroquine with certain other malaria drugs *can increase your risk of seizures*. Examples of these drugs include:
*Antiseizure drugs*
*Taking antiseizure drugs with hydroxychloroquine can make the antiseizure drugs less effective*.
*Immunosuppressant drugs*

*Hydroxychloroquine warnings*

*Allergy warning*
*Don’t take this drug again if you’ve ever had an allergic reaction to it. Taking it again could be fatal (cause death).*
*Alcohol interaction warning
Warnings for people with certain health conditions*
*For people with skin problems:
For people with liver problems or alcohol misuse:
For people with certain enzyme deficiencies:*
*Warnings for other groups*
*For pregnant women:
For women who are breastfeeding:
For seniors:* *This drug is processed by your kidneys. Older adults with reduced kidney function may not be able to process this drug well, which can increase the risk of side effects, including vision damage. *Older adults may require more frequent eye exams while taking this drug to monitor for signs of vision damage.
*For children:* This drug can be dangerous to children. Accidentally swallowing even just a few tablets can lead to death in a small child. Keep this drug in a child-resistant bottle out of reach of children.
*Hidden costs*
Beyond the cost of this drug, you may need to pay for additional eye exams and blood tests.
*Prior authorization*
Many insurance companies require a prior authorization for this drug. This means your doctor will need to get approval from your insurance company before your insurance company will pay for the prescription.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> To expand on my previous post about HC causing heart attacks and suicide the above link includes the following and lots of information under the headings I left in


I didn't even know about the hypoglycemic effects, though severe hypoglycemia can be quickly fatal.


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## MiTasol (Apr 22, 2020)

Sid327 said:


>




Man who called COVID-19 lockdown 'bull****' dies from the virus
and so will many more with this attitude - those who attend _Liberate _---- events are placing their lives at risk and too ***** to know it


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## Zipper730 (Apr 22, 2020)

I figure if there is even contemplations for re-opening, everybody involved needs to be properly protected.


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## gumbyk (Apr 22, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> *For seniors:* *This drug is processed by your kidneys. Older adults with reduced kidney function may not be able to process this drug well, which can increase the risk of side effects, including vision damage. *Older adults may require more frequent eye exams while taking this drug to monitor for signs of vision damage.


And, since Covid affects the kidneys amongst other organs, that warning would apply to most patients.

Something to note: It looks like the US has the _least_ deadly strains of the virus:


> The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington State, according to their paper.


Covid 19 coronavirus: Study shows disease has mutated - and some strains hit harder

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## wuzak (Apr 22, 2020)

Regarding "herd immunity", has there been any evidence that those recovered from the disease have immunity from being infected again?

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, to have her immunity you need upwards of 90% of people to have that immunity for it to work.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Unfortunately, the whole topic has been politicized and all I was trying to do was have a discussion of the topic and not push a political agenda



Well, that's something. The reality is neither am I, despite my poorly veiled references. My advise is devoid of political agenda, just good ole common sense. _Listen to the medical professionals._

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## Zipper730 (Apr 22, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Regarding "herd immunity", has there been any evidence that those recovered from the disease have immunity from being infected again?


It would appear that people who are infected sometimes relapse, which produces the illusion of catching it again. That said, immunity does appear to occur, but if the disease mutates sufficiently, it might be like the cold. The problem is the common cold doesn't have a mortality rate of 3%.


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## gumbyk (Apr 22, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> It would appear that people who are infected sometimes relapse, which produces the illusion of catching it again. That said, immunity does appear to occur, but if the disease mutates sufficiently, it might be like the cold. The problem is the common cold doesn't have a mortality rate of 3%.


I don't think its a case of _if_ it mutates sufficiently. There are already over 30 different identified strains, refer to my earlier link in post #1831

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## Marcel (Apr 23, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I don't think its a case of _if_ it mutates sufficiently. There are already over 30 different identified strains, refer to my earlier link in post #1831


It’s an RNA virus, sure it mutates. The Chinese research however has been flawed from the beginning in this virus. Many claims have been made from that side that have been disputed or proven false later. Let’s just wait and see.


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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 22
cases 2,721, recovered 1,317, hospitalized 660, deaths 179, tested 49,344*/**
fatality rate 6.6%
mortality rate 31.4 per million
tests rate 8.7 per thousand*/**
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Tests are currently being used primarily for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Minnesota is currently building a supply chain and processing system that will allow testing of upto 20,000 people per day. Exactly how long before this rate will be achieved is unknown, but FWIW my estimate is 6-8 weeks before we CAN do it, and 8-12 weeks before we actually DO do it. Hopefully I am wrong and it will be sooner. (I separate the CAN do and Do do because, even if the testing system will allow it, the herd will have to be convinced it is necessary.)


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## fubar57 (Apr 23, 2020)




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## rochie (Apr 23, 2020)

Ive read today that the UK's pandemic stockpile of ppe has NOT even been used up yet !
not saying there have not been shortages but the level of hysteria the media is stirring up is shocking !

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## Vincenzo (Apr 23, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 23rd April
cases 189,973, + 2,646, deaths 25,549, +464, recovered 57,576, + 3,033, active cases 106,848, -851, test 1,579,909, + 66,658
fatality rate 13.4%
mortality rate 424 per million
test rate 26.2 per thousand
positive rate 12%
test rate today 1,105 per million
positive rate today 4%


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## gumbyk (Apr 23, 2020)

rochie said:


> Ive read today that the UK's pandemic stockpile of ppe has NOT even been used up yet !
> not saying there have not been shortages but the level of hysteria the media is stirring up is shocking !


It's probably like the issues we have here.
I have no doubt that there is plenty of PPE. And there always will be, if you don't hand it out to the people who need it.

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## fubar57 (Apr 23, 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-bright-whistleblower-hydroxychloroquine-1.5542131

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 23, 2020)

"the level of hysteria the media is stirring up is shocking !"
You're not accustomed to it yet?
Remember about Pravda and Izvestia? They married. Their many children emigrated to US/UK/EU. Now you understand?
Truth, fact, understanding, wisdom, perspective, these all have no "currency value". 
Readership, which sells advertising, is the sole metric. Clickbait > fact.


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## at6 (Apr 23, 2020)

Sid327 said:


>





gumbyk said:


> You owe me 3 minutes for wasting my time with that bullshit.


Ha ha. I didn't watch it so I saved 3 minutes.


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## gumbyk (Apr 23, 2020)

And now I've just seen that your Dear Leader is enquiring about injecting disinfectant?


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 23, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> And now I've just seen that your Dear Leader is enquiring about injecting disinfectant?




Probably not.

Fact Check: No, Trump Didn't Propose Injecting People with Disinfectant


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## gumbyk (Apr 23, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Probably not.
> 
> Fact Check: No, Trump Didn't Propose Injecting People with Disinfectant


Ummm, that's Breitbart - Kind of like using TheOnion as a source...

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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 23, 2020)

Better "The Onion" than any of the lamestream media.


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## gumbyk (Apr 23, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Better "The Onion" than any of the lamestream media.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Breitbart pushes half truths and “alternative facts“ to push its partisan agenda. So how is that any better? Answer: It’s not.

They can spin it however they want, his words were “ And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?" Trump said during his daily briefing at the White House. "Because, you see, it gets on the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So that you're going to have to use medical doctors, but it sounds — it sounds interesting to me."


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## TheMadPenguin (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Breitbart pushes half truths and “alternative facts“ to push its partisan agenda. So how is that any better? Answer: It’s not.
> 
> They can spin it however they want, his words were “ And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?" Trump said during his daily briefing at the White House. "Because, you see, it gets on the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it'd be interesting to check that. So that you're going to have to use medical doctors, but it sounds — it sounds interesting to me."



Sounds like inhalation therapy to me, not an IV.

Half-truth is a measure NYT, WaPo, and Yahoo seldom meet. "Alternative fact" applies to them extensively. Let's consider this "getting political" please.

Donald Trump is the President of the United States, not a "former reality show host", just as President Barak Obama was the President of the United States, not a "former community organizer".

President Trump is not a doctor, he does not play one on TV, but he does dare think aloud.


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## T Bolt (Apr 24, 2020)

I recorded this clip Thursday morning at 5:30 am just south of the junction of interstates I-90 and I-94 on the north side of Chicago.
Doesn’t look likepeople are paying attention to the lockdown
There is going to be a second wave for sure.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Sounds like inhalation therapy to me, not an IV.



Even so, inhaling a disinfectant into your lungs? Really? There is a reason they are for external use only... 



> Half-truth is a measure NYT, WaPo, and Yahoo seldom meet.





So you admit Breitbart is nothing more than a partisan opinion hack job?



> "Alternative fact" applies to them extensively. Let's consider this "getting political" please.



That can of worms was opened with the use of Breitbart as a factual source.

I’ll refrain from answering to the rest...


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## wuzak (Apr 24, 2020)

*United States*
April 24, 2020, 05:47 GMT
Total Cases: 886,709
New Cases: +267
*Total Deaths: 50,243*
New Deaths: +7
Total Recovered: 85,922
*Active Cases: 750,544
Serious/Critical: 14,997*
Total Cases/1M Population: 2,679
Deaths/1M Population: 152
Total Tests: 4,775,625
Tests/1M Population 14,428


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## wuzak (Apr 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Sounds like inhalation therapy to me, not an IV.



Injection doesn't suggest inhalation, nor is it necessarily IV. It suggests injection.

It isn't clear where "injection inside" would mean. Whether that was in the lungs, or the body in general.

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## wuzak (Apr 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> President Trump..... does dare think aloud.



That's fine in meeting with the experts that can say whether it is a good idea or not. 

But in a televised briefing, not so much.


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## ThomasP (Apr 24, 2020)

I am sorry to say that watching the whole of the press conference with President Trump does not provide any reason to think that he did not mean direct injection. Don't get me wrong, he may not have meant direct injection . . . possibly he meant using a disinfectant lung lavage (ie a lung bath) or some such. Lung lavage (using a saline solution) is sometimes used to remove contaminants or biological substances that build up in the lungs and result in difficulty breathing. There are two problems with this idea.

One problem is that although saline lung lavage has been used to treat lung disease symptoms (ie DIP and PAP), it has no known effect on the underlying pathogenic or genetic cause.

Another problem is that a lung lavage using disinfectant is not the same as a lung lavage using saline solution. Any type of disinfectant that is capable of killing a virus (ie alcohol, lye, acid, various high test solvents, etc) will damage the lungs in rough proportion to the type and amount of the disinfectant used. The virus is, for the most part, not just lying around on the interior surfaces of the lung. For the chemicals to kill the virus causing the damage they would first have to penetrate the various lung structures and cell walls, damaging the structures and killing the cells in the process. In addition, the lung damage caused by these chemicals is the type of damage that can result in ARDS, which is similar to/the same as what is often the end stage killer in COVID-19.

There are some ionized gases that will kill nearly all bacteria and viruses present in the area of effect. Such a gas (ozone for example) could easily be introduced into the lungs in a controlled manner. The problem with using such gases for treating pneumonia or other pathogenic lung diseases is that they have been shown to trigger cell death (apoptosis) and/or cause tumors.


As for UV light, unless the COVID-19 virus takes up residence on or a short distance under the skin, the UV wavelength that can penetrate any distance into the human body will not have any direct effect.

A process called Ultraviolet Blood Irradiation (UBI) was tried in the late-1800s/early-1900s, and one study reported a 100% success rate (75 out of 75) vs pneumonia. If this success rate were true, any responsible physician should be using the UBI process in place of pretty much all other treatments (today's fatality rate for pneumonia being treated in a hospital setting with antibiotics/antivirals is 5%-30% depending on the type, with an overall average of 5%-10%). UBI is apparently not used at all?

To use UV light internally is physically possible, and has been tried on otherwise probably terminal pneumonia patients. Once again however, the virus is for the most part not just lying around on the interior surfaces of the lung. An relatively powerful light source would have to be used for the virus to be killed in "a minute" or so, powerful enough to penetrate the mucous and other fluids (ie saline, blood sera, etc) coating the lung structures, the lung structures themselves, cell linings, etc. That much UV will itself will cause damage. A less powerful light source could be used for a longer time, but since the effects of such radiation is cumulative, the damage would still occur. As I said above, the process has been tried, using nasal/trachea passage of leads, but the success rate was apparently nil. If it had looked promising, the method would be in common use for the more serious pneumonia cases at the very least. It is apparently not used at all?


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## ThomasP (Apr 24, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 23
cases 2,942, recovered 1,536, hospitalized 712, deaths 200, tested 51,548*
fatality rate 6.8%
mortality rate 35.1 per million
tests rate 9 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Current testing primarily reflects use for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. However, use is increasing in non-hospital facilities where COVID-19 cases have occurred (nursing homes, meat packing plants, etc) in order to determine if a facility needs to be closed or can continue in operation.


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## wuzak (Apr 24, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> The virus is, for the most part, not just lying around on the interior surfaces of the lung.



I would think that the virus would not be found exclusively in the lung either.

I believe some studies show that there is damage to other organs as well.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

There is a search going on here in the state for a guy who tested positive for the corona. He walked out of the hospital and no one knows where he is. Unbelievable!


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## MiTasol (Apr 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Probably not. Fact Check: No, Trump Didn't Propose Injecting People with Disinfectant



I do not believe or dis-believe the video but unfortunately far tooooo many videos are edited for political "gain".

However you must remember that Breitbart is/was run by Bannon who was the big T's mouthpiece for several months. I will wait to see what Snopes says as they do not favour any political party or person and kick/praise both sides equally when required.

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## rochie (Apr 24, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> "the level of hysteria the media is stirring up is shocking !"
> You're not accustomed to it yet?
> Remember about Pravda and Izvestia? They married. Their many children emigrated to US/UK/EU. Now you understand?
> Truth, fact, understanding, wisdom, perspective, these all have no "currency value".
> Readership, which sells advertising, is the sole metric. Clickbait > fact.


Man WTF are you banging on about !

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## pbehn (Apr 24, 2020)

Harold1071 said:


> There is a search going on here in the state for a guy who tested positive for the corona. He walked out of the hospital and no one knows where he is. Unbelievable!


The mentally ill get infected just as anyone else does. There was a report here from a psychiatric ward in a hospital showing the chaos caused by people with paranoia and other conditions suddenly being confronted by people in masks and goggles.


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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2020)



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## Marcel (Apr 24, 2020)

Indeed, try to stay away from politics guys. I know it's hard in this case, but it's the rules.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Indeed, try to stay away from politics guys. I know it's hard in this case, but it's the rules.



Agreed, but it is really hard. I’m guilty too. Thats what happens in this reality TV show though...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Sad too that Doctors have to even say this...

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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2020)

Makers of Lysol as well. Ignore the Trump part and scroll down a bit...https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-disinfectant-light-reaction-1.5543563

EDIT: CBC just edited this and removed all the Tweets from top doctors and experts horrified by this

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Then again, kids were eating Tide Pods, so maybe it does need to be said.


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## swampyankee (Apr 24, 2020)

Of course, introducing powerful disinfects into the human body will kill the corona virus. It will also kill the human body that's hosting the corona virus, _probably before all the virus is destroyed_. The same thing with introducing intense UV light into the body. UV will kill the virus; it will also kill human body cells, probably long before the virus is destroyed.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 24, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 24th April
cases 192,994, +3,021, deaths 25,969, +420, recovered 60,498, +2,922, active cases 106,527, -321, tests 1,642,356, +62,447
fatality rate 13.5%
mortality 431 per million
test rate 27.2 per thousand
positive rate 11.8%
test rate today 1,035 per million
positive rate today 4.8%


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 pm (CEST) 24th April
> cases 192,994, +3,021, deaths 25,969, +420, recovered 60,498, +2,922, active cases 106,527, -321, tests 1,642,356, +62,447
> fatality rate 13.5%
> mortality 431 per million
> ...



It really looks like you guys are trending in the direction. Keeping my fingers crossed this continues.

I fear we are a long ways off from doing the same here because people where incapable of being “inconvenienced” a month ago or longer.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It really looks like you guys are trending in the direction. Keeping my fingers crossed this continues.
> 
> I fear we are a long ways off from doing the same here because people where incapable of being “inconvenienced” a month ago or longer.



unlucky also here the people show of being "inconvenienced", after Easter there is more people around, on cars, on feet there is relatively less growth


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> unlucky also here the people show of being "inconvenienced", after Easter there is more people around, on cars, on feet there is relatively less growth



I am sure everyone is tired of this, and just wants it to be over. I know I do.

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## pbehn (Apr 24, 2020)

rochie said:


> Man WTF are you banging on about !


Three conspiracy theorists walked into a bar, well don't tell me THAT is coincidence!

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## Peter Gunn (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am sure everyone is tired of this, and just wants it to be over. I know I do.


Yup, all this telecommuting is just hell...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Peter Gunn said:


> Yup, all this telecommuting is just hell...
> 
> View attachment 578691



I have been working from home since March 16th.


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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2020)

Company just sent an email saying they want to ramp up again, My start date tentatively May 13th. They are also applying to the government to be allowed to run two weeks on, two weeks off until the end of July

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 24, 2020)

Today my niece tested positive - She's an LVN and been working at a convalescent hospital. No symptoms, self isolating.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am sure everyone is tired of this, and just wants it to be over. I know I do.


Agreed!


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Today my niece tested positive - She's an LVN and been working at a convalescent hospital. No symptoms, self isolating.


😢


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

There is a lot of he said she said going on. Frankly, I am tried of it. I know I have been locked up since the 13th of March. I didn't clean out my classroom never thinking school would be shut down for the year. My wife has type 1 diabetes, so that worries me all the time. I have type 2, which doesn't help when you stress. All the complaining and name calling we see in the news helps nothing. Let's all get out and vote (if we can) to make ourselves heard. This is scary stuff. I have a friend who was my mentor my first year teaching who just got married in August 2019. Her husband died this month. He was 35. I know it's hard to resist commenting on it. Me and brothers all voted in different directions, so go figure. Now good news, I have to sign up for 40 hours of virtual PD, yay!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Today my niece tested positive - She's an LVN and been working at a convalescent hospital. No symptoms, self isolating.



Sorry to hear that my friend. I hope she recovers well.

My wife’s niece also tested positive. She works at a retirement home, and several if the elderly there tested positive too.

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## Gnomey (Apr 24, 2020)

Just in case you needed to think about it...







Stay safe everyone. Get well soon those who are unwell

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Harold1071 said:


> There is a lot of he said she said going on. Frankly, I am tried of it. I know I have been locked up since the 13th of March. I didn't clean out my classroom never thinking school would be shut down for the year. My wife has type 1 diabetes, so that worries me all the time. I have type 2, which doesn't help when you stress. All the complaining and name calling we see in the news helps nothing. Let's all get out and vote (if we can) to make ourselves heard. This is scary stuff. I have a friend who was my mentor my first year teaching who just got married in August 2019. Her husband died this month. He was 35. I know it's hard to resist commenting on it. Me and brothers all voted in different directions, so go figure. Now good news, I have to sign up for 40 hours of virtual PD, yay!



My condolences to you and your friend.

Stay safe and take care of your family.

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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My condolences to you and your friend.
> 
> Stay safe and take care of your family.


Thank you. Stay safe and well.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Harold1071 said:


> Thank you. Stay safe and well.



I get to venture out to restock the pantry tomorrow. I only hope that my 2 week illness I had earlier this month was the coronavirus, and that you do in fact get immunity. I don’t like being sick regardless of what it is, or how mild it is.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

I never let my wife do any shopping. I do it all. I was sick back in March. Many of my students came in sick and I eventually became sick too. For awhile there in March I lost all sense of smell and taste. I couldn't taste or smell anything. My senses finally came back, so I think I might have had as well.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 24, 2020)

Chances are you did. And I do all the shopping right now. We have a 3 year old and a 1 year old that are attached to her like white on rice. If she got sick it would be bad.

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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2020)

Good Gawd!!!.............https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ng-season-saved-despite-covid-fears-1.5544254


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Good Gawd!!!.............https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ng-season-saved-despite-covid-fears-1.5544254


unbelievable! trees!


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Chances are you did. And I do all the shopping right now. We have a 3 year old and a 1 year old that are attached to her like white on rice. If she got sick it would be bad.


My 3 year old is attached to us at the hip. The 11,9 and 8 year old not so much.


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## MiTasol (Apr 24, 2020)

Today in Australasia is ANZAC day, the day we honour our war dead and those that served with dawn parades, other parades and a public holiday.

For many years part of this has involved the flyover of most daytime parades by warbirds and the daytime parades are staggered so that the flyover takes place about mid parade at most locations.

This year our Chief Medical Officer proved what a complete and utter moron she is by banning the flyovers.

Here is her "logic". 
Yet we can still get in our car to go shopping or to visit friends (so long as no more than two visitors at once).

AND she is the person who has issued hundreds of permits for more than 10 people at a funeral and you can travel long distances for that. At least one exception allowed 80 at a funeral.
@#$%^&*() hypocrite.

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## Freebird (Apr 24, 2020)

.

View attachment 578696




Gnomey said:


> DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
> 
> 
> > Sad too that Doctors have to even say this...
> ...



The NEJM statement is hilarious!

Ah, a little disinfectant is good for the system.
CDC says that 70% alcohol will kill almost all viruses, these three gentleman, having dutifully watched the President's press conference are now diligently going through Coronavirus elimination protocol with 75% Bacardi 151 disinfectant...

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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

Freebird said:


> .
> 
> View attachment 578696
> 
> ...



That's where it's at!


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## ThomasP (Apr 24, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 24
cases 3,185, recovered 1,594, hospitalized 756, deaths 221, tested 53,787*
fatality rate 6.9%
mortality rate 38.8 per million
tests rate 9.4 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Current testing primarily reflects use for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. However, use is increasing in non-hospital facilities where COVID-19 cases have occurred (nursing homes, meat packing plants, etc) in order to determine if a facility needs to be closed or can continue in operation.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Chances are you did. And I do all the shopping right now. We have a 3 year old and a 1 year old that are attached to her like white on rice. If she got sick it would be bad.


Tragic.


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## at6 (Apr 24, 2020)

This is one time that the Chinese should have kept what they made. I highly suspect that this is no natural virus because no one was catching it before. Not only that, the "Bat" virus has been around for thousands of years and never effected anyone until now.


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## at6 (Apr 24, 2020)

Harold1071, My condolences to you and the family and friends.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 24, 2020)

at6 said:


> Harold1071, My condolences to you and the family and friends.


Thank you. She can't stop crying. I feel so bad for her.


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## Freebird (Apr 24, 2020)

And for gawd's sake people- use common sense!
Dont drink bleach!
Read the damn label!








hydroxychloroquine = Malaria drug, MIGHT work on Coronavirus
chloroquine phosphate = Aquarium cleaner! Poisonous! Death!!!

Man Dies, Woman Hospitalized After Taking Form Of Chloroquine To Prevent COVID-19


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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2020)

You need this one....


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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2020)

This joke seems to be popular in New Zealand at present - I have been sent it by several Kiwis and a Pom (Brit) who is trapped there.

You really need to have spent some time there to appreciate it

_God was recently seen in New Zealand. When asked what he was doing there, his answer was "Working from home, Bro." _

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## Marcel (Apr 25, 2020)

at6 said:


> This is one time that the Chinese should have kept what they made. I highly suspect that this is no natural virus because no one was catching it before. Not only that, the "Bat" virus has been around for thousands of years and never effected anyone until now.


 the Chinese made a mess of it and now we’re all in trouble. Problem is that they didn’t learn from it, so it will happen again.

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## Harold1071 (Apr 25, 2020)

Word is that disease was found to be in a fresh food market, which includes fresh bat.


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## rochie (Apr 25, 2020)

In yesterday's briefing here in the UK i found it interesting that on the graph showing number of deaths i other countries they removed China from the list, it has been on since these briefings began ?


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## Harold1071 (Apr 25, 2020)

They claim their death rate is lower than the USA which is at the moment over 50,000. Last time I saw a number it was under 20,000. This is hard to believe.

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## Harold1071 (Apr 25, 2020)

Latest rate for China is 8,632.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 25, 2020)

Correction 4,632, even lower.


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## Crimea_River (Apr 25, 2020)

New study casts more doubt on true scale of China's coronavirus outbreak


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## Airframes (Apr 25, 2020)

The media in the UK, particularly the BBC, now seem to be directing their attention to anything to do with the possible easing of 'lockdown'.
After their frenzy over 'Brexit', I wonder how long it will be be before they start calling it 'Loxit' ?!!!!

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## mikewint (Apr 25, 2020)



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## Vincenzo (Apr 25, 2020)

Italy report, 5 p.m. CEST, 25th April, here is national Holyday
cases 195,351, +2,357, deaths 26,384, + 415, recovered 63,120, +2,622, active cases 105,848, -679, tests 1,707,743, +65,387
fatality rate 13.5%
mortality rate 437 per million
test rate 28.3 per thousand
positive rate 11.4%
test rate today 1,084 per million
positive rate today 3.6%


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## Harold1071 (Apr 25, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 p.m. CEST, 25th April, here is national Holyday
> cases 195,351, +2,357, deaths 26,384, + 415, recovered 63,120, +2,622, active cases 105,848, -679, tests 1,707,743, +65,387
> fatality rate 13.5%
> mortality rate 437 per million
> ...


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## pbehn (Apr 25, 2020)

Airframes said:


> The media in the UK, particularly the BBC, now seem to be directing their attention to anything to do with the possible easing of 'lockdown'.
> After their frenzy over 'Brexit', I wonder how long it will be be before they start calling it 'Loxit' ?!!!!


Minister 20,000 have died so far do you think the strategy was wrong and can we all get back to how it was next week minister? Why havnt you got a vaccine yet minister? Don't you care minister?


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## mikewint (Apr 25, 2020)



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## swampyankee (Apr 25, 2020)

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png

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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2020)

mikewint said:


> View attachment 578824


That top line in the yellow band should say ... and people

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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2020)

Harold1071 said:


> They claim their death rate is lower than the USA which is at the moment over 50,000. Last time I saw a number it was under 20,000. This is hard to believe.



That will be because they did a total lockdown of the city from the rest of China as soon as they knew it was on the loose and allowed anyone who wanted to travel internationally to go and spread the disease as widely as possible while still pretending it did not exist. Idiot nations, bl00dy near all, like lemmings sent in planes to bring the disease home and many did not have or enforce quarantine until far too late.

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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Today in Australasia is ANZAC day, the day we honour our war dead and those that served with dawn parades, other parades and a public holiday.
> 
> For many years part of this has involved the flyover of most daytime parades by warbirds and the daytime parades are staggered so that the flyover takes place about mid parade at most locations.
> 
> This year our Chief Medical Officer proved what a complete and utter moron she is by banning the flyovers.



Three warbirds in the Bundaberg region and one on the Sunshine coast ignored the ban and flew their schedule anyway.

I wonder if they will be prosecuted. I doubt it with an election in six months.


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## Gnomey (Apr 25, 2020)

Freebird said:


> And for gawd's sake people- use common sense!
> Dont drink bleach!
> Read the damn label!
> 
> ...


Hydroxychloroquine has shown no benefit in most recent trial data.



MiTasol said:


> This joke seems to be popular in New Zealand at present - I have been sent it by several Kiwis and a Pom (Brit) who is trapped there.
> 
> You really need to have spent some time there to appreciate it
> 
> _God was recently seen in New Zealand. When asked what he was doing there, his answer was "Working from home, Bro." _


It’s so good because it’s so close to the truth

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## Freebird (Apr 25, 2020)

Thanks for the clarification.



Gnomey said:


> Hydroxychloroquine has shown no benefit in most recent trial data.


On the bright side it's not as instantly lethal as aquarium cleaner...

One could muse on the wisdom of uninformed leaders going on national TV to speculate on untested and unproven home brew remedies.

There's probably a joke to be had there involving Pearls of Wisdom, swine and White House briefings, but would likely violate the "No Politics" rule.


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## ThomasP (Apr 26, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 25
cases 3,446, recovered 1,654, hospitalized 797, deaths 244**, tested 56,597*
fatality rate 7.1%
mortality rate 42.8 per million
tests rate 9.9 per thousand*
*Test kits are still in short supply, however, at the current time test kit processing is limited more by lack of materials (primarily reagents). Current testing primarily reflects use for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. However, use is increasing in non-hospital facilities where COVID-19 cases have occurred (nursing homes, meat packing plants, etc) in order to determine if a facility needs to be closed or can continue in operation.
**Approximately 75% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths are from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest person to die was 50 years old, the oldest was 109, with a median of 83.


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## rochie (Apr 26, 2020)

Have a friend who works in a DIY/hardware store that just reopened, she has to wear plastic visor to protect her its company policy.

She's been abused several times by customers, main theme is she should be ashamed that she's using vital ppe that could be used by the NHS !

Are these people real ?
If they stayed at home and didnt go out to browse through the shops because they are bored, she wouldn't need to work wearing a plastic visor !

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2020)

rochie said:


> Have a friend who works in a DIY/hardware store that just reopened, she has to wear plastic visor to protect her its company policy.
> 
> She's been abused several times by customers, main theme is she should be ashamed that she's using vital ppe that could be used by the NHS !
> 
> ...









I despair of humanity at times.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 26, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 26th April
cases 197,675, +2,324, deaths 26,644, +260, recovered 64,928, +1,808, active cases 106,103, +255, after six days of go down, go back up, tests 1,757,659, +49,916
fatality rate 13.5%
mortality rate 442 per million
test rate 29.1 per thousand
positive rate 11.2%
test rate today 828 per million
positive rate today 4.7%


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 5 pm CEST 26th April
> cases 197,675, +2,324, deaths 26,644, +260, recovered 64,928, +1,808, active cases 106,103, +255, after six days of go down, go back up, tests 1,757,659, +49,916
> fatality rate 13.5%
> mortality rate 442 per million
> ...



Look at that! Numbers coming down. I happy for you all in Italy that the worst appears to be behind you now.

God knows you all were being hit really hard, until the US said “Hold my Bud Lite!”

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## ThomasP (Apr 26, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 26
cases 3,602***, recovered 1,774, hospitalized 829, deaths 272**/***, tested 58,987*/***
fatality rate 7.6%
mortality rate 47.7 per million
test rate 10.3 per thousand*
*Although Test kits and reagents are still in short supply, the primary cause of the still relatively low numbers of tests is due to a combination of factors including logistics and training times. Current testing primarily reflects use for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. However, use is increasing in non-hospital facilities where COVID-19 cases have occurred (nursing homes, meat packing plants, etc) in order to determine if a facility needs to be closed or can continue in operation. Access to testing (in limited numbers) for the general population is scheduled to begin in 2 weeks.
**Approximately 75% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths are from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest person to die was 44 years old, the oldest was 109.
***Although the health measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.

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## tomo pauk (Apr 26, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> **Approximately 75% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths are from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest person to die was 44 years old, the oldest was 109.



Same here in Croatia. Out of 50 deaths, 10 were people located in single nursing home for the elderly, so were a number of others.
BTW, seems like we're weathering the storm here, last 7 days there was average of about 20 new cases (people tested positive) per day.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 27, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 27th April
cases 199,914, +1,739, deaths 26,977, +333, recovered 66,624, +1,696, active cases 105,813, -290, tests 1,789,662, +32,093
fatality rate 13.5%
mortality rate 447 per million
test rate 29.7 per thousand
positive rate 11.2%
test rate today 532 per million
positive rate today 5.4%

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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 27
cases 3,816***, recovered 1,842, hospitalized 861, deaths 286**/***, tested 61,268*/***
fatality rate 7.5%
mortality rate 50.2 per million
test rate 10.7 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Approximately 75% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths are from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest person to die was 44 years old, the oldest was 109.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota report, April 27

Minnesota now has the lab capacity to process ~8,000 tests/day, but is completing only ~2,300 tests/day. The current stumbling block is the logistics of getting the tests and materials to and from the test locations and processing facilities. The short-term goal is ~5,000 completed tests/day by mid-May.

However, the demand for testing is increasing in rural areas where COVID-19 outbreaks have occurred (nursing homes, meat packing plants, etc) in order to determine if a facility needs to be closed or can continue in operation. Due to the serious outbreaks in the communities where these sites are located, there is still a shortfall in overall testing.

Most of the recent increase in rate is due to serious outbreaks in more rural communities, where COVID-19 has been transported over the last 3 weeks. A significant part of the increase in cases is due to people refusing to stay at home - going to summer cabins/homes, 'visiting friends' in rural communities, students returning home, etc - figuring that they would go someplace where they were less likely to be exposed to the virus, but carrying the virus with them to areas that were previously COVID-19 free.


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## fubar57 (Apr 28, 2020)



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## Zipper730 (Apr 28, 2020)

How have people become so stupid? I know, when it comes to alacrity at math and foreign language, I'm pretty lousy, but I'd have thought almost anybody would know that injecting disinfectants into their veins would be suicidal.

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## pbehn (Apr 28, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> How have people become so stupid? I know, when it comes to alacrity at math and foreign language, I'm pretty lousy, but I'd have thought almost anybody would know that injecting disinfectants into their veins would be suicidal.


It must be a cultural thing between nations, in UK people don't randomly inject themselves with stuff, even a nurse isn't authorised to decide what a patient is given.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 28, 2020)

You don't BECOME stupid.

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## cherry blossom (Apr 28, 2020)

I am going to make a suggestion on Covid-19 despite lacking any medical qualifications. I noticed an extensive discussion in the British media that people of Black and Asian origin seemed more susceptible to Covid-19 than White people of similar socio-economic status. I also noted that it is the end of the British Winter and that people with black skins may be suffering from a slight deficiency of vitamin D. I have found a few articles such as Vitamin D and the Immune System mentioning that vitamin D has a role in the immune system. Thus I have started taking vitamin D supplements. Am I deluded?

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## Crimea_River (Apr 28, 2020)

Stupid media question of the day: Our prime minister was asked, in french, by not one but two reporters, how he could justify receiving imported PPE that did not exhibit the required labelling in both official Canadian languages.

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## rochie (Apr 28, 2020)

BBC still banging on about PPE, reporter Hugh Pim today shamelessly used his question to plug a BBC Panorama programme about ppe shortages that was on last night.

Health Secretary answered with " i saw the programme and I'm not sure that was a fair and unbiased piece of journalism !"


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## Vincenzo (Apr 28, 2020)

Italy report. 5 pm CEST, 28th April
cases 201,505, +2,091, deaths 27,359, +382, recovered 68,941, +2,317, active cases 105,205, -608, test 1,846,934, +57,272
fatality rate 13.6%
mortality rate 454 per million
test rate 30.6 per thousand
positive rate 10.9%
test rate today 950 per million
positive rate today 3.7%


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## pbehn (Apr 28, 2020)

rochie said:


> BBC still banging on about PPE, reporter Hugh Pim today shamelessly used his question to plug a BBC Panorama programme about ppe shortages that was on last night.
> 
> Health Secretary answered with " i saw the programme and I'm not sure that was a fair and unbiased piece of journalism !"


At least 4 of the medical staff interviewed are Labour activists 2 are members of momentum and have been on a platform with the Magic Grandpa.

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## rochie (Apr 28, 2020)

pbehn said:


> At least 4 of the medical staff interviewed are Labour activists 2 are members of momentum and have been on a platform with the Magic Grandpa.


Thought that might be the case, but am not surprised


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## swampyankee (Apr 28, 2020)

pbehn said:


> It must be a cultural thing between nations, in UK people don't randomly inject themselves with stuff, even a nurse isn't authorised to decide what a patient is given.



Nurses can't do that here, in the US, except for the relatively few Advanced Practice RNs who, if I remember, spend about as much time in school as US MD's.

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## pbehn (Apr 28, 2020)

rochie said:


> Thought that might be the case, but am not surprised


Anyone confused about what the government means when it says stay at home should tune into Sky who will clarify it for you.


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## fubar57 (Apr 28, 2020)

Just voted on whether or not our camp will go from 7on/7off to 14on/14off. Find out shortly. The Ministry of Mines wanted 21/21 but the company convinced that this would create too much financial hardship. If the vote succeeds, I go back to work on May 13. If it fails the mine will shut down indefinitely.

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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> You don't BECOME stupid.



Agreed, but it is possible for your stupidity to be manipulated so that it becomes a dominant factor for a time. The success of con men depends on this regardless of what sort of a con they are running.


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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Stupid media question of the day: Our prime minister was asked, in french, by not one but two reporters, how he could justify receiving imported PPE that did not exhibit the required labelling in both official Canadian languages.



We have the same stupid reasoning here exhibited by our state government which has decided that no-one is permitted to be a volunteer fire fighter unless they hold a blue card proving that they have had a police check to determine if they have any criminal history suggesting they might be a pedophile. Someone completely lacking in common sense has decided that a firey might have their evil way with that child while dragging that child out of a burning building.

They claim it is about child safety but the reality is there is a fee payable to get and renew the blue card so it is all about creating a revenue stream fir the government. God botherers, who have a long history of such abuse, do not need a blue card.


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## rochie (Apr 28, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Stupid media question of the day: Our prime minister was asked, in french, by not one but two reporters, how he could justify receiving imported PPE that did not exhibit the required labelling in both official Canadian languages.


must've been BBC Canada ?


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## fubar57 (Apr 28, 2020)

Thought I would post this here as well as the Obituary Thread as it is relevant.


Veteran Philip Kahn dies of Covid-19 over 100 years after his twin brother died from the Spanish Flu Pandemic

WWII veteran dies from coronavirus 100 years after his twin died of Spanish Flu

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## Crimea_River (Apr 28, 2020)

rochie said:


> must've been BBC Canada ?



Right! The BBC objecting over lack of french!

Placer la masque sur nez et la bouche et shut le f!ck up!!!!!

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## gumbyk (Apr 28, 2020)

Well, down to just two new cases here yesterday, and we're still in lockdown, although it's relaxed a bit.

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 28
cases 4,181***, recovered 1,912, hospitalized 912, deaths 301**/***, tested 63,829*/***
fatality rate 7.2%
mortality rate 52.8 per million
test rate 11.2 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Approximately 75% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths are from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest person to die was 44 years old, the oldest was 109.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.

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## Vincenzo (Apr 29, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 29th April
cases 203,591, +2,086, deaths 27,682, +323, recovered 71,252, +2,311, active cases 104,657, -548, tests 1,910,761, +63,827
fatality rate 13.6%
mortality rate 459 per million
test rate 31.7 per thousand
positive rate 10.7%
test rate today 1058 per million
positive rate today 3.3%


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## at6 (Apr 29, 2020)

Now there are rumors of the virus re-activating in some who were "cured". There may be no stopping this one. Thank you Beijing for making us all sick.


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## fubar57 (Apr 29, 2020)

Perhaps not a rumour but they say they need to look into it more....https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-relapse-or-reinfection-1.5546771

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 29, 2020)

A good sign, maybe...

6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine

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## pgeno71 (Apr 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> A good sign, maybe...
> 
> 6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine



Those were some smart monkeys to con Oxford professors to create a monkey vaccine before a human vaccine.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 29, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Those were some smart monkeys to con Oxford professors to create a monkey vaccine before a human vaccine.



You always test on animals first...


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## Gnomey (Apr 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You always test on animals first...


After Petri dishes...

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## gumbyk (Apr 29, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> After Petri dishes...


Yeah, those dishes catch all sorts of diseases...

Does Covid19 infect monkeys? There seems to be conflicting accounts of how species-specific it is (cats, etc)


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## pgeno71 (Apr 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You always test on animals first...



Really?


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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2020)

The Rhesus group of monkeys have been found susceptible to many of the same diseases as humans, including virus based diseases. Testing in the past, using Rhesus monkeys, has successfully helped develop vaccines and antibiotics for humans. The similarity of DNA between Primates (ie humans, great apes, monkeys, etc) allows many diseases to spread between them, usually far more easily than between humans and birds, or humans and pigs. (Rhesus monkey DNA is considered to be ~93% the same as human, while Chimpanzee DNA is considered to be ~98% the same - although there is some debate as to the exact % depending on the criteria used to evaluate the 'sameness'.)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 29, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Really?



Yeah, pretty much. Lab testing, then animal tests, then human tests.

Why are animals used for testing medical products?


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## gumbyk (Apr 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, pretty much. Lab testing, then animal tests, then human tests.
> 
> Why are animals used for testing medical products?


Nah, just skip that - then you can get straight to injecting disinfectant....

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## wuzak (Apr 29, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Yeah, those dishes catch all sorts of diseases...
> 
> Does Covid19 infect monkeys? There seems to be conflicting accounts of how species-specific it is (cats, etc)



I would think that some other monkeys were exposed to Covid-19 without he vaccine, to see whether they were infected.


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## wuzak (Apr 29, 2020)

I saw a video from one of the cable news networks talking about modelling that showed 74,000 deaths in the US by early August.

Considering the current count is 61,000 and 2,000 people lost their lives today, that number will be achieved sooner.


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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 29
cases 4,644***, recovered 2,043, hospitalized 950, deaths 319**/***, tested 66,744*/***
fatality rate 6.9%
mortality rate 56 per million
test rate 11.7 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general public is beginning in small numbers (<200/day).
**Approximately 78% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. So far in Minnesota, only 3 deaths have occurred in patients with no known underlying health conditions.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. Currently, this is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate. However, the volume of testing is increasing dramatically and this may soon effect/skew the ratios.


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## Harold1071 (Apr 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> How have people become so stupid? I know, when it comes to alacrity at math and foreign language, I'm pretty lousy, but I'd have thought almost anybody would know that injecting disinfectants into their veins would be suicidal.


Sadly some people will believe anything. People should always consider the source.


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## fubar57 (Apr 30, 2020)



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## nuuumannn (Apr 30, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> You don't BECOME stupid.



No, but some people get told stupid and accept it willingly.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 30, 2020)

at6 said:


> Thank you Beijing for making us all sick.



Perhaps you should be thanking your government for not dealing with it as well as it should have, not Beijing.



wuzak said:


> I saw a video from one of the cable news networks talking about modelling that showed 74,000 deaths in the US by early August.



How is it that the richest nation on earth can be getting this so wrong? 

U.S. coronavirus deaths now surpass fatalities in the Vietnam War


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## Zipper730 (Apr 30, 2020)

The thing is, disease has accounted for more deaths, historically, than every single war, humanity has ever waged, put together (as far as I know).


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## nuuumannn (Apr 30, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> The thing is, disease has accounted for more deaths, historically, than every single war, humanity has ever waged, put together



That doesn't answer the obvious question though - why is the US government getting its response to the virus so terribly wrong compared to other nations?


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## Vincenzo (Apr 30, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> The thing is, disease has accounted for more deaths, historically, than every single war, humanity has ever waged, put together (as far as I know).


I don't understand this disease a around 230 thousands official deaths to now, the alone world war II has 50+ millions deaths w/o including related famine and disease


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## rednev (Apr 30, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I don't understand this disease a around 230 thousands official deaths to now, the alone world war II has 50+ millions deaths w/o including related famine and disease


Zipper is referencing all diseases since caveman times till now

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> That doesn't answer the obvious question though - why is the US government getting its response to the virus so terribly wrong compared to other nations?



First of all the answer to that involves having a level of competence. I would answer more to that, but unfortunately it would dive too far into politics, and offend certain people. Therefor I shall refrain.

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## Bernhart (Apr 30, 2020)

I work in mental heath and we are now seeing people coming in that are to be on precautions. Because of their illness there is very little understanding or compliance . So far we have not had anyone test positive or show symptoms, but if it happens I worry about containment

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

I liken the US response to the virus like when someone pees in a pool.


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## swampyankee (Apr 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> That doesn't answer the obvious question though - why is the US government getting its response to the virus so terribly wrong compared to other nations?



We seem to be doing better than Brazil....

Not to get too deeply into politics, but MDs, PhDs, and those MD/PhD, MD/DVMs, and those people with _educations_ that actually require academic work, vs plagiarism_, _have knowledge and expertise. Ignoring them because of a combination of ideology ("Chinese hoax"), arrogance ("stable genius"), and willful ignorance is stupid even in a ditch-digger; it's criminal verging on treasonous in a head of state or head of government.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

Although I agree with you completely, let’s leave it at that. It is going down dangerous waters.


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## swampyankee (Apr 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Although I agree with you completely, let’s leave it at that. It is going down dangerous waters.



Agreed.


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## Vincenzo (Apr 30, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 30th April
cases 205,463, +1,872, deaths 27,967, +285, recovered 75,945, +4,693, active cases 101,551, -3,106, tests 1,979,217, +68,456
fatality rate 13.6%
mortality rate 464 per million
test rate 32.8 per thousand
positive rate 10.4%
test rate today 1,135 per million
positive rate today 2.7%


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## pgeno71 (Apr 30, 2020)

How is it that the richest nation on earth can be getting this so wrong?

Is it? I think your looking at the wrong number. Earlier threads explained why the US would have higher total cases and deaths. You should go back and read them. The number that is more comparative is deaths per million because that actually adjusts for population differences between nations. Here is a list of those:

* Confirmed deaths(absolute) Population (in millions) Deaths per million*
Belgium 7,501 11.42 656.71
Spain 24,275 46.72 519.54
Italy 27,682 60.43 458.07
United Kingdom 26,097 66.49 392.5
France 24,121 66.99 360.08
Netherlands 4,711 17.23  273.4
Ireland 1,190 4.85 245.18
Sweden 2,462 10.18 241.77
Switzerland 1,716 8.52 201.49
United States 60,908 327.17 186.17

Sorry the chart did not translate. Numbers are from _Statista_.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

Death rates are only a part of the story though. One has to look at the entire picture. Sorry but everything from our response time, to the organization of our response, to the way we are handling it has been a joke. I know, I know, certain ideological followers continue to deny this, but facts are facts. Incompetence has reared its ugly head here.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 30, 2020)

> And you are the arbiter of which facts are facts. Thanks big brother.

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## swampyankee (Apr 30, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> And you are the arbiter of which facts are facts. Thanks big brother.



I don't know who you may be directing the snark towards, but it's an opinion that needs to be dealt with.

Expertise and knowledge are _earned_ attributes. It would seem that you're suggesting that somebody like Jenny McCarthy should be given equal weight concerning what the _facts_ are about vaccines as, say, Dr Birx and the opinion of a random political pundit on, say, atmospheric physics and radiative heat transfer, should be given as much weight as someone who has earned a PhD in the subject.

Something like a PhD or an MD isn't handed out in a candy store; they're earned after years of rigorous and highly examined work that has to meet criteria settled upon by decades of effort by thousands of people.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> And you are the arbiter of which facts are facts. Thanks big brother.



I did not say that did I? It’s rather obvious we do not agree on this. Better to agree to disagree. No need to insult, and make things personal. Hmmm...


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## swampyankee (Apr 30, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I was waiting for this study.
> 
> Israel Researchers Believe CBD Could Play Crucial Role In COVID-19 Treatment - The Fresh Toast.



A local neurologist, who has recently retired (I went to him for migraines; my wife after a stroke) has said that nothing he's heard of in several decades of practicing medicine cured so many things as marijuana derivatives.


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## pgeno71 (Apr 30, 2020)

[


swampyankee said:


> Evidence and data are the facts; opinion is just that. Expertise and knowledge are _earned_ attributes. While I don't claim to be an arbiter of facts, I would argue that somebody like Jenny McCarthy should not be given equal weight concerning what the _facts_ are about vaccines as, say, Dr Birx, nor should the opinion of somebody whose highest educational achievement is an MBA be given equal weight on questions of atmospheric physics than someone with a PhD in the subject.



I did not address that statement to you and I edited that post because it would have been non-productive. I agree with everything you said. Experts in a field are given the benefit of the doubt because of the earned attributes you identified, but evidence and data do not stand alone, they are interpreted. In many areas, this causes experts to reach different conclusions or even to disagree with one another. Even experts can possess biases and agendas that shape their interpretation of evidence. The simple choice of which data or information you are giving greater weight to reflects a bias that may be conscious or unconscious.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> A local neurologist, who has recently retired (I went to him for migraines; my wife after a stroke) has said that nothing he's heard of in several decades of practicing medicine cured so many things as marijuana derivatives.



I have a good friend whose daughter has an inoperable brain tumor. It causers her to have seizures. The doctors tried several medications to no avail. She is now prescribed medicinal marijuana and her seizures are now in check.

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## pgeno71 (Apr 30, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> A local neurologist, who has recently retired (I went to him for migraines; my wife after a stroke) has said that nothing he's heard of in several decades of practicing medicine cured so many things as marijuana derivatives.



The list of useful treatments is growing. Some people with chronic pain that would have to take debilitating opioids can be effectively treated with medical marijuana.


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## gumbyk (Apr 30, 2020)

We're now at the point where there is serious concern that the increase in suicide rate due to economic effects will be worse than the virus itself.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> We're now at the point where there is serious concern that the increase in suicide rate due to economic effects will be worse than the virus itself.



I think that is big problem. The economy is obviously in very big trouble. People are losing their careers. There needs to be a balance between mitigating the risk posed to people, and that of the economy. The question is who decides what is more important. I guess that depends on who you ask.


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## Gnomey (Apr 30, 2020)

The mental health aspects are vastly underrated and with the stretch on services before all this then who knows what the true ramifications will be.

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## at6 (Apr 30, 2020)

When it comes to the mental health aspect, I don't have to worry very much then. The shelter in place is so close to my life style that I've hardly noticed any difference. The only bad part is that my local Hobby shop is closed.

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## fubar57 (Apr 30, 2020)

B.C.s numbers after 100 days.










​I personally believe this person deserves most or all the credit for how things are transpiring in the province and possibly saving a lot of lives. Unlike a lot of places in the world, no one is doubting her call. When this is all over and done with, she deserves a long holiday and a knighthood




​Her credentials...https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/dr-bonnie-henry-profile-1.5531167

​

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## wuzak (Apr 30, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I don't understand this disease a around 230 thousands official deaths to now, the alone world war II has 50+ millions deaths w/o including related famine and disease



The Spanish Flu killed between 50 and 100 million people after WWI.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 30, 2020)

Smoking kills 500,000 people annually just in the US.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Smoking kills 500,000 people annually just in the US.



But that is a choice the smoker makes, knowing damn well what the risks are. Nobody wants to catch a virus, let along choosing between risking the virus, or putting food on the table.


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## Shortround6 (Apr 30, 2020)

If I walk though the smoker's 2nd hand smoke for 10-20 seconds the odds of me dying in the next 2-3 weeks are pretty darn slim.
If I walk through the coronavirus carriers droplet cloud for 10-20 seconds the odds of me dying in the next 2-3 weeks are somewhat greater.

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## gumbyk (Apr 30, 2020)

Looks like some of you might have bigger things to worry about than Coronavirus....
Hundreds of protesters, some carrying guns in the state Capitol, demonstrate against Michigan's emergency measures


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## wuzak (Apr 30, 2020)

Looking at the data from the US it looked as though it was starting to go past the peak, with the number of active cases staying steady or declining, and the number of deaths declining.

But it appears that yesterday (30 April) the number of deaths for the day jumped up above 2,000 again, and the number of active cases rose by about 40,000. Whether that is because fewer people recovered, more people contracted the virus or more tests proved positive I don't know.


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## wuzak (Apr 30, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> How is it that the richest nation on earth can be getting this so wrong?
> 
> Is it? I think your looking at the wrong number. Earlier threads explained why the US would have higher total cases and deaths. You should go back and read them. The number that is more comparative is deaths per million because that actually adjusts for population differences between nations. Here is a list of those:
> 
> ...



Give it time!

While countries like Italy and Spain are having reducing new deaths per day, the US is still running quite high numbers.

Also, you would have to consider demographics. Whether the countries above have older populations than the US.

Certainly a number of the countries in that list have greater population densities than the US. 

New York is running at 1,200+ deaths per 1M population, New Jersey 800+, Connecticut 630 and Massachusetts over 500.


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## gumbyk (Apr 30, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Looking at the data from the US it looked as though it was starting to go past the peak, with the number of active cases staying steady or declining, and the number of deaths declining.


Experience here in NZ is that deaths lag infections, so you'd expect to see hte number of active infections start to decline about 2 weeks before the number of deaths do.



wuzak said:


> Give it time!
> 
> While countries like Italy and Spain are having reducing new deaths per day, the US is still running quite high numbers.
> 
> ...



Our (New Zealand) figures are 19 deaths for just under 5 million people, so around 4 per million


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> But that is a choice the smoker makes, knowing damn well what the risks are. Nobody wants to catch a virus, let along choosing between risking the virus, or putting food on the table.



You are absolutely correct, just like everybody knows the risk when they drive, when they fly, when they drink alcohol, when they eat grilled meats, when they go out during flu season or when people voluntary/involuntarily are around smokers and die from it (8% of deaths from smoking fall in this category).

IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?


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## gumbyk (Apr 30, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Y
> 
> IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?


But you fail to consider the rights of those who you unknowingly pass it on to.

I don't think its any coincidence that the countries that have fared best are the ones that value collective rights over personal ones.

There is a balance, but some countries aren't even looking for a balance. Personally, I think NZ has persisted on our elimination path for too long, and hte gain we're getting for an extra couple of weeks isn't worth it, but to have re-opened any sooner that that would have been murder.


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## swampyankee (Apr 30, 2020)

Well, the acute issue I have with second-hand smoke is that it's a very effective migraine trigger, at least for me. I won't die from a migraine; it just feels like one wants to. 

But the previous poster, ShortRound6, is absolutely right: covid-19 could kill you in a week. Unless you're severe asthmatic, second-hand smoke will take decades.

----

Yes, it's also true that the Spanish flu (which most likely originated in Kansas) killed tens of millions. Part of the reason was the disruption due to WW1, part due to inadequate medical care, and part due to inadequate response. Well-fed, fit people tend to be less susceptible to disease than malnourished ones; many places in Europe had years of chronic food shortages due to the depredations of war and bad harvests (the Russian Revolution was partly due to bad harvests and poor response by the Russian government). There were also about 675,000 deaths in the US, with some areas managing much worse than others.


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## wuzak (Apr 30, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Experience here in NZ is that deaths lag infections, so you'd expect to see hte number of active infections start to decline about 2 weeks before the number of deaths do.



My point is that they were declining, and now they're not.


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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2020)

I had never thought I’d ever worry about NOT being able to get a haircut.


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## fubar57 (May 1, 2020)

I cut my own hair. My kids call the "insane asylum look"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> You are absolutely correct, just like everybody knows the risk when they drive, when they fly, when they drink alcohol, when they eat grilled meats, when they go out during flu season or when people voluntary/involuntarily are around smokers and die from it (8% of deaths from smoking fall in this category).
> 
> IMHO it is far better to have a job with insurance and risk getting COVID (or any other virus) than to be told to stay home and lose your job and insurance to have a less chance of getting a virus. Sadly, we took away this choice from 20+ million people who are now unemployed because of this. So now its down to the question: Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?



Except that people going to work risk giving it to others whether they work or not. Because every infected person can pass it to others at home, or at the store. With a virus like this, where you are contagious weeks before symptoms start, it is too risky. For that to even remotely have a chance of working, you have to know who has the virus, and who doesn’t. It’s too late to do that because we sat with our thumb up our ass for too long.

Your idea only works as well when there is decent health insurance. Not the joke we have now, where 40% of the country either has no insurance, or insurance that does not cover shit. Where people have to go to work even when sick because they won’t get paid if they don’t, or cannot afford the out of pocket medical expenses. “Oh you’re sick? Too bad, get to work and infect others, or your kids go hungry.”

Then what good does it do to have plants and factories shutting down anyhow because thousands of workers are getting sick and spreading it too each other? Take the Tyson meat plants, for instance. They are spreading the virus like wildfire, and production is down by 25%.

Some people say the United States was not built to be shut down. At the same time it was not built for people to get sick. The system will fail them regardless. It is a no win situation. You are screwed if you don’t work, and you are screwed if you do. Fuck em though. Every man for themself.

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2020)

__________Population***
___________Density__Population____Confirmed_______________Deaths/
___________(sq.mi.)___ (millions)______Cases________Deaths____million

Japan________867_____126.5_________14,305_________455_______3.6___(Japan first confirmed case was on 6 January)*

S.Korea_____1,325______51.3_________10,774_________248_______4.8___(Korea first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

US____________94_____331.0______ 1,090,000______63,538_____192.0___(US first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

Germany_____ 623______83.8________163,000_______ 6,623______79.0___(Germany first confirmed case was on 27 January)

*Note that Japan had 14 days less warning than the US. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
**Note that S.Korea and the US confirmed their first cases on the same day. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
***Note that the US has the lowest population density, by a factor of 5.7x to 14x.

_________________Population****
__________________Density__Population____Confirmed_______________Deaths/
__________________(sq.mi.)___ (millions)______Cases________Deaths____million

Tokyo_____________15,957_____9.273________4,152_________117_______12.6

Seoul_____________44,052_____9.776_________ 634___________ 2________0.2
Daegu_____________ 7,302_____5.120________6,867_________172_______33.6*****

New York City_____ 26,403_____8.399_____ 167,000______ 12,976____1,544.9

Berlin _____________ 9,870_____3.769________5,827_________147_______39.0

****Density of the city only, not the metropolitan area, except for Daegu (actually Daegu–Gyeongbuk metropolitan area).
*****The Daegu–Gyeongbuk metro was the hardest hit of the cities in S.Korea.


Test rates as of 29-30 April

Japan_______ 1.3 (TTI) per thousand******
S.Korea_____12.1 (TTI)
US_________ 19.3
Germany____30.5

******Compare the above test rates in combination with the low case rate and death rate in the countries that immediately instituted Test,Trace, and Isolate (TTI) or maybe Track, Test, and Isolate (still TTI).

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2020)

Minnesota report, April 30
cases 5,136***, recovered 2,172, hospitalized 1,044, deaths 343**/***, tested 70,276*/***
fatality rate 6.7%
mortality rate 60.2 per million
test rate 12.3 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Approximately 78% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. So far in Minnesota, only 3 deaths have occurred in patients with no known underlying health conditions.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

Another thing that the “But the Ecomony” crowd who just want to open everything up, keep choosing to ignore is that the purpose of the lockdowns was to reduce the number of people becoming critically ill and overburdening our healthcare system. Once all the ICUs are gone, you are going to see a spike in deaths from all sorts of things. Not just from the coronavirus. Flu deaths will go up, infection deaths will go up, fatalities due to car accidents will go up, and fatalities due to otherwise treatable conditions will go up. Because of a lack of resources. It’s a simple fact that our healthcare experts have pointed out from day one, and people still refuse to accept.

Demanding your rights, without acknowledging your responsibilities is not freedom, its adolescence.

And no, before anyone gets their panties in a bunch, I am not saying anyone here is doing this.

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## Snautzer01 (May 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Demanding your rights, without acknowledging your responsibilities is not freedom, its adolescence.


Well spoken and T shirt or beter face mask worthy.


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## Shortround6 (May 1, 2020)

Maybe I am being simplistic but it seems to me it is a bit like freedom of speech, Yes you have a constitutional right of freedom of speech but it stops short of yelling "fire" in a crowded movie theater to use an old example.
Your rights end when they endanger other people because they have rights too.

You should be able to go to work and pay your bills if it can be done without endangering other people.
Unfortunately we are in a situation/system where there is not enough testing to find out who is really sick/contagious and who is not.
We are in a situation/system where for years/decades people have been penalized or punished for taking sick time in the name of productivity. It takes a while to change that perspective.
Unfortunately we have, in some quarters, gotten to the point of some people say other people should be willing to die for the sake of productivity.

Sorry but when did your right to go to the beach top my right to live(keep breathing, not go out to the Do Drop Inn on friday night?)

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

Shortround6 said:


> Maybe I am being simplistic but it seems to me it is a bit like freedom of speech, Yes you have a constitutional right of freedom of speech but it stops short of yelling "fire" in a crowded movie theater to use an old example.
> Your rights end when they endanger other people because they have rights too.
> 
> You should be able to go to work and pay your bills if it can be done without endangering other people.
> ...



My response is lil off-topic, but maybe it relates to the way some people think. I actually had a conversation with someone who said that drinking and driving laws infringe on his freedoms and rights. When I asked him about the lives he endangers by doing so, his response was that is the price of freedom. An extreme example? Yes, but I hear things like this all too often now.


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## Shortround6 (May 1, 2020)

33 years as a firefighter and my truck/s usually had the rescue equipment (Hurst tools). Things changed over time and NOT going out at 2:00 AM at bar closing time on a regular basis was one of the better changes. Stupid people were job security but they often affect other people who had nothing to do with the poor decision. Nobody should be injured or killed as a "price" that society has to pay for the "Freedom" to drive while impaired (drunk, sick or texting). I would really like somebody to show me in the constitution where it says you can endanger other people?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

I do not like Huffpost as a source. I think it is a very biased news source that cherry picks spins things its way (Then again Faux News, CNN, etc. all do the same thing, and are no better). So I do not vouch for this article. Regardless of the truth or not, I do think it sheds a light to the problem we are discussing between balancing the economy and peoples health.

'Incensed' Sheriff Slams 'Dysfunctional' Tyson For 900 COVID-19 Cases In Iowa Hot Spot


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## vikingBerserker (May 1, 2020)

I think that is one thing we agree upon, I am all for balance and common sense.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

One last thing. To open everything up, we have to change our draconian ways. It’s time to start protecting workers. If you want people to work during a pandemic, give them paid sick leave. When someone is sick, they will stay home and not get 5 to 10 other people sick. Why? because they know they can still feed their families. Then when they are not sick, they go back to work. Doing otherwise, you get exactly what is happening at the meat processing plants.

It works in other places, it can work here too.

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## Marcel (May 1, 2020)

Oh no, I’m not going to be dragged into this one. Maybe we should go back on topic?

Hope everyone is still healthy.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Oh no, I’m not going to be dragged into this one. Maybe we should go back on topic?
> 
> Hope everyone is still healthy.



Technically it is on-topic. Even if people do not want to hear it. 😉


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## pbehn (May 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Another thing that the “But the Ecomony” crowd who just want to open everything up, keep choosing to ignore is that the purpose of the lockdowns was to reduce the number of people becoming critically ill and overburdening our healthcare system. Once all the ICUs are gone, you are going to see a spike in deaths from all sorts of things. Not just from the coronavirus. Flu deaths will go up, infection deaths will go up, fatalities due to car accidents will go up, and fatalities due to otherwise treatable conditions will go up. Because of a lack of resources. It’s a simple fact that our healthcare experts have pointed out from day one, and people still refuse to accept.
> .


We are already seeing this in UK DESPITE the health system not being overwhelmed. It is too early to tell why, but it seems people with chest pains (for example) are not seeking help and dying of heart attacks and strokes. People are not visiting doctors or hospitals as they did. For this I blame our press who cant cover any issue without complete hysteria. They give the impression hospital wards are over run, that all wards and care homes with their staff are infected throughout the country and all care homes are little more than places of mass execution. I don't believe in control of the press but many in UK should take a serious look at themselves. So far in UK there are about 8,000 additional unexplained deaths basically caused by people being misled about the situation.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

pbehn said:


> We are already seeing this in UK DESPITE the health system not being overwhelmed. It is too early to tell why, but it seems people with chest pains (for example) are not seeking help and dying of heart attacks and strokes. People are not visiting doctors or hospitals as they did. For this I blame our press who cant cover any issue without complete hysteria. They give the impression hospital wards are over run, that all wards and care homes with their staff are infected throughout the country and all care homes are little more than places of mass execution. I don't believe in control of the press but many in UK should take a serious look at themselves. So far in UK there are about 8,000 additional unexplained deaths basically caused by people being misled about the situation.



That is a problem everywhere my friend. Modern news media is a business. It is not here to simply report the news anymore. It is all opinion based, and distorted sensationalized alternative facts to increase ratings and profit.

Earlier in the pandemic, for instance, the media reported that if a child was hospitalized for coronavirus, they would be isolated alone. That the parents could not he with the child at all. Parents were refusing to take their kids to the doctors out of fear their kids would be taken to solitary isolation. It is a frightening thought to any parent or child. Hospitals and doctors had to come out and explain that a parent will always be with their child at all times. That the media was wrong. It took weeks to finally get this through to people.

It’s an honest shame how things have gone with the media. *Below is not meant to he political. Please do not take it as such. It just explains how media in the US has become.*

What actually happened:

A commercial airliner suffered a structural failure and broke apart over the Atlantic ocean. 310 people died.

How CNN reports it:

A commercial airliner crashed over the Atlantic. 310 people are dead. Our panelists here are telling us that this likely occurred because President Trump did not do anything. We need to increase the tax on gasoline.

How Fox News reports it:

A commercial airliner crashed over the Atlantic. 310 people are dead. Trump is telling us that this is all Obama’s fault. It’s true. We need to bring God back to the airlines.

Choose your poison...

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## Vincenzo (May 1, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 1st May, in Italy is national holiday
cases 207,428, +1,965, deaths 28,236, +269, recovered 78,249, +2,304, active cases 100,943, -608, tests 2,053,425, +74,208
fatality rate 13.6%
mortality rate 468 per million
test rate 34 per thousand
positive rate 10.1%
test rate today 1,230 per million
positive rate today 2.6%


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

Interesting read...

Coronavirus may last 2 years, study warns. And its second wave could be worse.


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## stona (May 1, 2020)

pbehn said:


> For this I blame our press who cant cover any issue without complete hysteria. They give the impression hospital wards are over run, that all wards and care homes with their staff are infected throughout the country and all care homes are little more than places of mass execution. I don't believe in control of the press but many in UK should take a serious look at themselves. So far in UK there are about 8,000 additional unexplained deaths basically caused by people being misled about the situation.



One of the scare stories being peddled by the press was that surviving infection did not confer immunity and we could all either contract the virus again or it might 'reactivate'. This would make it quite unlike any other corona virus and I thought it was BS at the time. Turns out I was correct.
Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies.
There have been more than 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea, with 245 deaths. Reported cases of coronavirus patients relapsing after overcoming the disease were actually due to testing failures, something the UK's CMO has maintained all along.

Also, these fatality rates are being over stated. They are based on a ratio of deaths to confirmed cases, but we know that in many countries only symptomatic cases are tested and in many, not even all of those. I have three relatives who have all exhibited classic signs of this virus, one of whom was quite ill. NONE of them were tested and would only have been if they had been admitted to hospital. That's three, in one family, in Surrey, The West Midlands and Lancashire! The actual level of infection must be far higher than being tested, if it wasn't this virus would be less contagious than other recent outbreaks, and we know that is not the case, it is very contagious.

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## vikingBerserker (May 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That is a problem everywhere my friend. Modern news media is a business. It is not here to simply report the news anymore. It is all opinion based, and distorted sensationalized alternative facts to increase ratings and profit.
> 
> Earlier in the pandemic, for instance, the media reported that if a child was hospitalized for coronavirus, they would be isolated alone. That the parents could not he with the child at all. Parents were refusing to take their kids to the doctors out of fear their kids would be taken to solitary isolation. It is a frightening thought to any parent or child. Hospitals and doctors had to come out and explain that a parent will always be with their child at all times. That the media was wrong. It took weeks to finally get this through to people.
> 
> ...



My God, if I could award you the "Knight's Cross with Oak Leaves, Swords, and Bacon" for a statement that has never been truer I would

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

stona said:


> One of the scare stories being peddled by the press was that surviving infection did not confer immunity and we could all either contract the virus again or it might 'reactivate'. This would make it quite unlike any other corona virus and I thought it was BS at the time. Turns out I was correct.
> Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies.
> There have been more than 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea, with 245 deaths. Reported cases of coronavirus patients relapsing after overcoming the disease were actually due to testing failures, something the UK's CMO has maintained all along.
> 
> Also, these fatality rates are being over stated. They are based on a ratio of deaths to confirmed cases, but we know that in many countries only symptomatic cases are tested and in many, not even all of those. I have three relatives who have all exhibited classic signs of this virus, one of whom was quite ill. NONE of them were tested and would only have been if they had been admitted to hospital. That's three, in one family, in Surrey, The West Midlands and Lancashire! The actual level of infection must be far higher than being tested, if it wasn't this virus would be less contagious than other recent outbreaks, and we know that is not the case, it is very contagious.



There is a difference between a virus “reactivating” and “getting it again”. Virologists and doctors are saying they do not know yet if there is immunity.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> My God, if I could award you the "Knight's Cross with Oak Leaves, Swords, and Bacon" for a statement that has never been truer I would





The problem is the millions upon millions of people that believe this stuff.

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## Gnomey (May 1, 2020)

pbehn said:


> We are already seeing this in UK DESPITE the health system not being overwhelmed. It is too early to tell why, but it seems people with chest pains (for example) are not seeking help and dying of heart attacks and strokes. People are not visiting doctors or hospitals as they did. For this I blame our press who cant cover any issue without complete hysteria. They give the impression hospital wards are over run, that all wards and care homes with their staff are infected throughout the country and all care homes are little more than places of mass execution. I don't believe in control of the press but many in UK should take a serious look at themselves. So far in UK there are about 8,000 additional unexplained deaths basically caused by people being misled about the situation.


This is true but I’ve not seen the effects to a massive extent. There have been a few where you wonder why they haven’t come sooner but the vast majority have been using the services appropriately (actually far more appropriately than usual). You still get them though like the man a saw earlier this week who had 4 days of a ‘sore tummy and not opened his bowels’ who had a ruptured AAA...

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## pbehn (May 1, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> This is true but I’ve not seen the effects to a massive extent. There have been a few where you wonder why they haven’t come sooner but the vast majority have been using the services appropriately (actually far more appropriately than usual). You still get them though like the man a saw earlier this week who had 4 days of a ‘sore tummy and not opened his bowels’ who had a ruptured AAA...


I was just referring to what was said by Whitty Vincent Tan et al at the daily briefings.


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## cherry blossom (May 1, 2020)

There is some interesting research on how Covid-19 is spread. It seems that most cases arise after people talk, sing or cough to or on each other COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons - Quillette but it is not clear whether the transmission only involves large droplets or aerosols Experts unable to confirm or deny airborne transmission of coronavirus. This is important because large droplets are stopped by face masks whilst aerosols will pass through The scientists in Scotland hoping to discover whether masks help prevent spread of coronavirus or do more harm than good. Of course, this transmission may only be dominating because, following the SARS outbreak, everyone has been urged to wash their hands frequently.


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## at6 (May 1, 2020)

Still, it must all be true. Don't they get their facts from the internet and Wikipedia?

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 1
cases 5,730***, recovered 2,282, hospitalized 1,096, deaths 371**/***, tested 74,829*/***
fatality rate 6.5%****
mortality rate 65.1 per million
test rate 13.1 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel.
**Approximately 78% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. To date, approximately 98% of deaths have occurred in patients with underlying health problems.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. This is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.
****As of today the overall fatality rate in confirmed cases is only 6.5%. However, the fatality rate for confirmed cases in the 70+ age range is 26.5%.


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## stona (May 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is a difference between a virus “reactivating” and “getting it again”. Virologists and doctors are saying they do not know yet if there is immunity.



The Koreans are saying that infection and recovery does confer immunity. What they can't say (obviously) is for how long.

Today's scare story is about Covid-19 causing strokes in healthy people. It is based on a report from the _New England Journal of Medicine_ which details the cases of *five people*, ages 33 to 49, in New York City who had strokes and subsequently tested positive for Covid-19. All of them had large-vessel strokes outside of the hospital before experiencing other severe symptoms of the virus; one of them has since died.

What is a healthy person? There was a recent article in the UK about a 'healthy' 37 year old man succumbing to the virus. That was the headline. I bothered to read the article. His wife said he was healthy, but he suffered from Type 2 Diabetes and had a heart attack four years earlier. Healthy? Public Health England classifies Type 2 Diabetes as 'a serious medical condition' and it is a known factor increasing the chances of serious symptoms and death to the current virus. As for the heart attack we don't have any other information, but the death of any portion of your heart muscle hardly contributes to better health.

Try and fine a statistic for the average age of those dying in the UK. If you find the number put it in this thread.
I have seen articles giving statistics on the numbers of confirmed cases requiring hospitalisation, requiring intensive care, and of the latter the numbers dying. I have found statistics based on gender and race. I have found all sorts of statistics and analysis. There is an acknowledgement that older people are more likely to die, but that average? The last statistics giving an average age for fatalities which I have found were those published by the Italians weeks ago. Why?

There is a 'project fear' being run to help the authorities maintain lock downs and particularly cajole younger people into compliance. In the UK that is frankly insulting. The vast majority of people here appreciate the severity of the disease and how easily it is transmitted. Failing to publish all information, and publishing idiotic headlines about 'healthy' people, who clearly are not, in the assumption that many won't actually read the entire article, is not helpful and makes people suspicious and cynical of the press.

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## Vincenzo (May 2, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I would say the Korean data is the best so far, because they have pretty much tested their whole population -- this gives the best statistical figures. This doesn't diminish the harm the virus can cause, but it gives us a better perspective.


form worldometers data the South Korea did only 623k tests on a population of 50 millions this is relatively less of that did in USA and much less of that did in Span, Germany and Italy for not talking of Faeroe, Iceland, UAE, Falkland

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## Marcel (May 2, 2020)

What I find curious is that some countries with less rigorous quarantine measures don’t seem to have come off worse than the ones who had. For instance we had a lot of flak from the Belgians for not going into total lock down as they did. But we seemed to have fared better then they did. Our countries are very much interwoven, so situations are comparable otherwise. The fact that we are only in partial lockdown keeps me from going insane.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 2, 2020)

Marcel said:


> What I find curious is that some countries with less rigorous quarantine measures don’t seem to have come off worse than the ones who had. For instance we had a lot of flak from the Belgians for not going into total lock down as they did. But we seemed to have fared better then they did. Our countries are very much interwoven, so situations are comparable otherwise. The fact that we are only in partial lockdown keeps me from going insane.



I don’t believe a total lockdown is necessary, if people do the things they should do. Wear masks, stay 6 feet apart, don’t go to work when you are sick. Places where people resist this, or cannot comply for various reasons fair worse than those that do.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 2, 2020)

stona said:


> The Koreans are saying that infection and recovery does confer immunity. What they can't say (obviously) is for how long.
> 
> Today's scare story is about Covid-19 causing strokes in healthy people. It is based on a report from the _New England Journal of Medicine_ which details the cases of *five people*, ages 33 to 49, in New York City who had strokes and subsequently tested positive for Covid-19. All of them had large-vessel strokes outside of the hospital before experiencing other severe symptoms of the virus; one of them has since died.
> 
> ...



No medical journal is part of a scare tactic or anything. They are scientific journals that are peer reviewed presenting data for discussion.

The problem is that news media does not understand what they are reading, and they cherry pick data.

There is no scare campaign going on to control people. That can be chocked up in tin foil hat category.


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## stona (May 2, 2020)

The press and other media in the UK is absolutely complicit, knowingly or otherwise, in reporting in a way that scares people into compliance. My point is that this is unnecessary as people are not stupid (here at least) and most will comply anyway.

I think reporting, a couple of examples of which I gave, is irresponsible. It's like the 'eating bacon increases the chances of developing cancer by X or Y percent' reporting seen a couple of years ago. Most journalists do not have a background in the natural sciences or mathematics and they do not understand the issues or the statistics. Unfortunately nor do most of their readers. Editorial control is now weak or non-existent. For example, the Guardian would never have published that ing article about David Cameron's 'privilege' when he lost a disabled child had there been competent editorial oversight.

I'll call it for what it is. That 37 year old Welshman was NOT healthy by any normal measure, so why put that word _in the headline_.

Five people who suffered strokes before developing more serious symptoms of a virus which has infected millions, the connection to which is not proven, should not be trumpeted as a headline in mainstream media. This sort of reporting (remember hydroxychloroquine?) is ignorant at best and irresponsible at worst. I'd be interested to know how you would characterise it?

Have you found an average age for UK Covid-19 deaths published anywhere in the mainstream media? I thought not.

You don't need a tin foil hat to call BS when you see it. You just need a background which equips you to form an educated opinion of the statistics.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 2, 2020)

Yes its called sensationalism to increase ratings and profit.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 2, 2020)

Lets also not insult each other and insinuate someone is not educated. Got it?


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## stona (May 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yes its called sensationalism to increase ratings and profit.



And the campaign has been so effective in scaring the sh*t out of people at low risk that, as we look to try to slowly open up the country towards the end of this month, we see things like this.

_"Prof David Spiegelhalter, a leading statistician who chairs the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University, said: "I think we do need to have some sort of campaign to encourage people who are very low risk to get out and start living again, when we are able to."_

Very low risk means just about all healthy people under 50, you know, the ones who keep the economy moving.

In other news, the children of 'key workers' were supposed to be able to attend school, nursery, kindergarten, etc. Less than 10% have done so far. 

Millions more workers have availed themselves of the Treasury's furlough scheme, because they can and because they too have had the crap scared out of them and_ choose_ not to work, but to stay at home (often looking after the kids).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 2, 2020)

stona said:


> And the campaign has been so effective in scaring the sh*t out of people at low risk that, as we look to try to slowly open up the country towards the end of this month, we see things like this.
> 
> _"Prof David Spiegelhalter, a leading statistician who chairs the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University, said: "I think we do need to have some sort of campaign to encourage people who are very low risk to get out and start living again, when we are able to."_
> 
> ...



And you have an equal amount of people who think this is a joke, don’t take this seriously and putting everyone at risk. Even low risk people can carry it, and pass it on to others. Others that might be high risk. Look at the meat plant near St. Louis where I live. 300 just tested positive. 900 out of the 2200 at the plant in Iowa. Yeah it’s just a scare campaign though. Hmmm...

SMFH...


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## Shortround6 (May 2, 2020)

somehow people just take out what they want from certain sentences. I may be guilty myself.

"_who are very low risk to get out and start living again, *when we are able to*_ "

The quoted statement by Stona makes no mention of how or what constitutes being _*able to. *_

Common sense would say at a certain level of infection and with monitoring by testing. Unfortunately testing seems to be so rare and performed in such a haphazard fashion that valid conclusions are hard to come by. Doctors/scientists are making educated guesses. At some point we may have to go with a best guess rather than wait for 100% certainty. But is that time now? 

Unfortunately many of the naysayers think that because they themselves are not sick it means they can start "living" again. Going to bars. restaurants, beaches, not wearing masks, etc. 
going to mega church services and then going to the Grocery store? 

We may be over doing precautions in some areas and not doing enough in others, but nobody knows for sure and things like Florida (where I live) deciding to no longer release death statistics (in accurate as they may have been) sure doesn't help the general public assess the danger. Maybe Florida didn't need to shut down the whole state (some counties had next to no cases) but unless you could restrict travel to and from the worst the counties how do you stop it from spreading? 
As the meat packing plants show, even rural areas for from big cities can get a large outbreak and the stories about the meat plants only tell about the numbers of workers at plants. not family members or workers in local businesses, etc. 

We are operating in a knowledge vacuum, hopefully we can gain the needed knowledge to handle this thing soon without too much more disruption.

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## Vincenzo (May 2, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 2nd May
cases 209,328, +1,900, deaths 28,710, +474, recovered 79,914, +1,665, active cases 100,704, -239, tests 2,108,837, +55,412
fatality rate 13.7%
mortality rate 476 per million
test rate 35 per thousand
positive rate 9.9%
test rate today 919 per million
positive rate today 3.4%


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## fubar57 (May 2, 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/droplet-transmission-1.5549547

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## Crimea_River (May 2, 2020)

Golf courses reopened here as of today. Tee time Wednesday morning. Pro Shops and Clubhouses remain closed. Physical distancing rules in effect. Flags can not be removed. 1 person per cart (we walk anyway). No lunch over a beer afterwards though. Baby steps.

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## fubar57 (May 2, 2020)

They opened two in Vancouver yesterday; booked solid for the next three weeks. Mine still has a foot of snow on it in most places


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## fubar57 (May 2, 2020)



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## fubar57 (May 2, 2020)

Never mind, too political....have this instead




​

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## Shortround6 (May 2, 2020)

US government trying to get supplies to the states??????


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## pgeno71 (May 2, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No medical journal is part of a scare tactic or anything. They are scientific journals that are peer reviewed presenting data for discussion.
> 
> The problem is that news media does not understand what they are reading, and they cherry pick data.
> 
> There is no scare campaign going on to control people. That can be chocked up in tin foil hat category.



Agree. Also, these types of journals are really intended for the professionals they serve and not for mass audiences.

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2020)

Hey stona,

re: "Have you found an average age for UK Covid-19 deaths published anywhere in the mainstream media? I thought not."

I do not know where you live? Possibly the actual news programs are very different where you are.

Here in Minnesota the actual news programs are Channels 4 (WCCO/CBS), 5 (KSTP/ABC), 9 (KMSP/Fox), 11 (KARE/NBC) and 2 (PBS/TPT), along with some affiliates. I usually watch the news in the early afternoon and evening. All of these stations routinely mention and refer viewers to the following website:

"Situation Update for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Minnesota Dept. of Health"

I know that many (most? all?) of the other states have the same type of website available because I am in routine contact with relatives/friends and we compare notes sometimes.

All of the actual news programs in Minnesota also routinely give a general overview of the numbers on a fairly regular basis, including the median (not average/mean) ages for various items of interest. The MDH, CDC, etc, websites also provide actual numbers of deaths among the different age groups. The numbers of deaths amongst the different age groups are also reported semi-regularly by the actual news programs, albeit in a rather general sense.

The Minnesota Star-Tribune newspaper, our largest paper in terms of subscribers, also publishes the same information.

The MDH, CDC, etc, use the median age because they feel it more correctly provides the at-risk situation value better than an average age would.

Using a median age value in a normal aging population, with a wide age range and with many of the numbers in the set having the same value, will let you predict that the greatest risk of death is at or around the median number and greater.

To use an average age in the same situation would imply the greatest risk is the average value, and gradually decreases as the number moves farther away in either the plus or minus direction.


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## fubar57 (May 2, 2020)

The median age of 114 deaths due to the virus in B.C. is 86 as of April 23
COVID-19: B.C.’s epidemic by the numbers

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 2
cases 6,228***, recovered 2,397, hospitalized 1,159, deaths 395**/***, tested 79,007*/***
fatality rate 6.3%
mortality rate 69.3 per million
test rate 13.9 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions (including general frailty due to age). In Minnesota the median age of death due to COVID-19 is 83.
***Although the measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') is still increasing. Currently this is true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## rochie (May 3, 2020)

Steve

I'm pretty sure they said in the briefing here in the UK a few days ago the average age for deaths was 80.
though i dont remember if it was for the total or just the daily figure.


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## nuuumannn (May 3, 2020)

Shortround6 said:


> We are operating in a knowledge vacuum, hopefully we can gain the needed knowledge to handle this thing soon without too much more disruption.



Here, let your buddies down south help you out...

Unite Against COVID-19 | New Zealand Government

Thi is updated everyday and is on TV, social media and newspaper sites, so you can't miss it.

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## Vincenzo (May 3, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 3rd May
cases 210,717, +1,389, deaths 28,884, +174, recovered 81,654, +1,740, active cases 100,179, -525, tests 2,153,772, +44,935, 
fatality rate 13.7%
mortality rate 479 per million
test rate 35.7 per thousand
positive rate 9.8%
test rate today 745 per million
positive rate today 3.1%

5th case in my town
fatality rate 40%
positive rate on population 1 per thousand


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## nuuumannn (May 3, 2020)

Marcel said:


> What I find curious is that some countries with less rigorous quarantine measures don’t seem to have come off worse than the ones who had.



This is an interesting construct and it is used here as a reason why we shouldn't have such rigorous lockdown proceedures, but the reality of the situation is that every environment is different, from whole countries to individual households. Perhaps what you are saying might be the case, Marcel, but it might not either. What makes one group of people survive and another not? There are too many unknowns to be presumptuous about it. Each government has handled the virus its way based on its expert advice, but we really don't know what will happen if things were done differently where we are.

Some people here believe that the lockdown we have/had should be lifted sooner because of the damage to the economy, they could be right, but we just don't know enough about what might happen if we did get rid of lockdown, there's no saying things would be better or worse, but evidence says it _could_ be worse and perhaps for those making the decisions about lockdown that is enough.

As for comparisons with other countries, that just can't be validated because of so many variables. People here reckon that Australia is doing really well and they didn't have a Level 4 lockdown. Firstly, people in Australia think their government isn't doing enough. Secondly, what's to say that had Australia imposed a Level 4 lockdown their rates of illness and death wouldn't be less. They probably would be. Should we just accept that yes, people are gonna get sick and die, or should we do as much as we can to prevent the spread?

The struggling economy is a political football at the moment, but let's just clarify that the whole world is going through this and a small country like New Zealand relies so much on international trade that even if we went into a system that we think might help the economy, what difference would it actually make if no one is taking our products? Getting out of this lockdown won't save the economy at home if the rest of the world is not buying from us and we are not letting people in. Whose also to say that if we went back to life before this that our death and infection rate wouldn't escalate, like it has in the USA?

Political commentators and the media are not experts and are not doing the research required to make informed decisions. Governments, despite what they think are their best efforts also have to make decisions based on what they know, but even then they really don't know either way what might or might not happen if they didn't take the stance they did. And if they don't know enough, why take the risk?

Look at me changing my stance from before!

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## ThomasP (May 4, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 3
cases 6,663***, recovered 3,013, hospitalized 1,199, deaths 419**/***, tested 82,632*/***
fatality rate 6.3%
mortality rate 73.5 per million
test rate 14.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying (including general frailty due to age) health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, and our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be almost constant. This appears true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## Vincenzo (May 4, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 4th May
cases 211,938, + 1,221, deaths 29,079, +195, recovered 82,879, +1,225, active cases 99,980, -199, tests 2,191,403, +37,361
fatality rate 13.7%
mortality rate 482 per million
test rate 36.3 per thousand
positive rate 9.7%
test rate today 619 per million, very low
positive rate today 3.3%
Today is the first day of relaxed lock down, i see too many people around, many cars around, i hope gone fine but i suspect we will go up with cases

i've more infos on the 5th case of my town, she is the 75 years old wife of the 2nd case, just want note that are 45 days from when we known his husband was positive and 31 from him die

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## fubar57 (May 4, 2020)

Sorry to hear about the death but great news that your country is making the slow return back to normal

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## nuuumannn (May 5, 2020)

Meanwhile, in our corner of the world...

No new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand

Hard data from the Ministry of Health:

COVID-19 - current cases

My girlfriend is a Community health nurse and she spends her days down at the local testing station. She and her fellow health workers in the hospital(as well as health experts round the country) all say that this is working and to get out of lockdown right now would blow it all away.

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## fubar57 (May 5, 2020)

Yep. Right now the health officials figure we're running about 30% of normal and winning. This is today's model chart if we stay as is or go completely nuts.






https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...le-without-a-resurgence-of-covid-19-1.5554868​

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## at6 (May 5, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Meanwhile, in our corner of the world...
> 
> No new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand
> 
> ...


Mean while, here idiots are gathering in large groups to protest the lock downs without any masks or other forms of protection. They are also ignoring social distancing and gathering in large crowds at other locations. I can see a major catastrophe looming just ahead that will make what we've been going through look like a dress rehearsal for a really messed up play.


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## nuuumannn (May 5, 2020)

at6 said:


> Mean while, here idiots are gathering in large groups to protest the lock downs without any masks or other forms of protection. They are also ignoring social distancing and gathering in large crowds at other locations. I can see a major catastrophe looming just ahead that will make what we've been going through look like a dress rehearsal for a really messed up play.



Now I'm beginning to understand the answer to my question about why things are so bad in the USA right now.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

at6 said:


> Mean while, here idiots are gathering in large groups to protest the lock downs without any masks or other forms of protection. They are also ignoring social distancing and gathering in large crowds at other locations. I can see a major catastrophe looming just ahead that will make what we've been going through look like a dress rehearsal for a really messed up play.



So far most people in my area are taking it seriously. We shall see though. The governor just opened up large scale events again to the public such as concerts (I bet the casino lobbyists had something to do with that too...) despite the numbers of confirmed cases not declining.


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## fubar57 (May 5, 2020)

I'm not sure about the rest of Canada but in B.C. the casinos will be the very last places to open


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## ThomasP (May 5, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 4
cases 7,234***, recovered 4,212, hospitalized 1,271, deaths 428**/***, tested 85,941*/***
fatality rate 5.9%
mortality rate 75.1 per million
test rate 15.1 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, and our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be almost constant. This appears true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## wuzak (May 5, 2020)

at6 said:


> Mean while, here idiots are gathering in large groups to protest the lock downs without any masks or other forms of protection. They are also ignoring social distancing and gathering in large crowds at other locations. I can see a major catastrophe looming just ahead that will make what we've been going through look like a dress rehearsal for a really messed up play.



Some with semi-automatic rifles.

With them all being riled up, what could go wrong?


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## pbehn (May 5, 2020)

We had a media commentator yesterday demanding a track and trace app that doesn't interfere with civil liberties and right to privacy by recording personal information. So basically we demand you do what S. Korea does without being able to do what S. Korea does. That is a real win win for someone who wants to have something to complain about 24/7.

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## rochie (May 5, 2020)

Pressure is on for details of the UK's plan to ease the lockdown, as i work in a hotel i am not sure when i may go back to work.

i hope as a small hotel ( 25 rooms ) and being in the middle of nowhere we dont have too much passing trade and only really cater for our residents, we can operate while practicing social distancing.
It is our weddings and function business i worry about, our weddings were cancelled or moved to a different date for April, May, June and July, we still have weddings booked from 8th August but i cannot see even them going ahead !


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## rochie (May 5, 2020)

pbehn said:


> We had a media commentator yesterday demanding a track and trace app that doesn't interfere with civil liberties and right to privacy by recording personal information. So basically we demand you do what S. Korea does without being able to do what S. Korea does. That is a real win win for someone who wants to have something to complain about 24/7.


Another beauty from the BBC, car sales down 97% 
UK car sales plunge to lowest level since 1946
Really, what do you think was going to happen when the country is on lockdown and car dealerships ate closed ?
Why do i still have to pay a licence fee ?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

pbehn said:


> We had a media commentator yesterday demanding a track and trace app that doesn't interfere with civil liberties and right to privacy by recording personal information. So basically we demand you do what S. Korea does without being able to do what S. Korea does. That is a real win win for someone who wants to have something to complain about 24/7.



I hope that anyone with a smart phone is not stupid enough to complain about this.


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## pbehn (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I hope that anyone with a smart phone is not stupid enough to complain about this.


Of course they are, they can simultaneously complain about everything even two completely opposing policies. Our opposition leader has demanded that we "follow the science" AND establish a consensus among the population about future policy. What if the "consensus" is to isolate London Mr Starmer you fool. Our union leaders are thinking up all sorts of reasons for people to go on strike when much more than half the population is not working. People can complain about an "evacuation flight" from Australia or India cost $1,300 AND it was CROWDED, with no social distancing daaaahling. Well the plane has to fly there empty and there are no economies of scale any more.. The same people who say "You locked down too late" are now saying "Now we are past the peak why aren't you opening the economy". We still have hundreds dying every day and thousands of new cases, we may have passed the peak in UK but that doesn't mean in any way it is over. Many people (me included) are now feeling much sympathy for the government, they are confronted with utter stupidity from all sides from sunrise to sunset. In most cases there isn't really any "politics" apart from the grim balancing of health and wealth where all possibilities mean loss of life in some way. My objection is to the whole field being littered with idiots like the one who asked about the "science" behind the governments advice on raising the lockdown then asked "at precisely what date and time the "peak" was reached", this proves he actually doesn't know what the "peak" is.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

You hit the nail on the head with idiots everywhere.


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## Airframes (May 5, 2020)

Yep. The sooner the 'idiots' (in all sectors) realise that this is as bad as, perhaps worse than, the after effects of NBC warfare, the better.
Peaks may have been reached and passed, but it far from over - raising lockdown may ease the temporary inconvenience, but it will not prevent things getting worse, again.
When these fools eventually get to grips with the facts, and understand that easing lockdown and getting back to 'normal' now, could very well prolong the long term effects, where World economy. and health, would sink to unmanageable levels, resulting in poverty and famine worldwide, the sooner sensible policies can be enforced.
I have normally no time for any politician, but I have to agree with pbehn, and have huge respect for the UK Government at this time, for the way they're handling the situation, and providing at least some support, healthwise and financially, for the UK population.

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## rochie (May 5, 2020)

Same with all these meetings about when and how the football season can restart !

as if any sport is of any consequence right now.

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## pbehn (May 5, 2020)

rochie said:


> Same with all these meetings about when and how the football season can restart !
> 
> as if any sport is of any consequence right now.


To keep away from politics we frequently have "Talksport" on the radio. They cant seem to get their heads around the fact that things have changed. Football will be the last thing to "re start". There will be some fans who will go regardless but a lot wont. with half the country not working many wont pay for a season ticket, for a season that has no guarantee of finishing or even starting. I am even supposed to worry that clubs may lose their £100million players if they don't keep paying them over £1 a month. I don't remember being asked when they set up that madness. Most of all, I think our "media" based in London cant come to terms with the fact that London may never be the same. The theatres, clubs, bars and sports events may never reopen in the way they were.


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## stona (May 5, 2020)

Well, I finally found some data for the age of UK deaths to Covid-19

They are from 24th April.

*The percentage of those dying aged under 45 is 1.25% *(percentage of total deaths registered as Covid-19). We don't know whether or what any contributing health problems were factors in these deaths.

88.6 % of deaths were aged over 65 and 74.3% over 75 (percentages of total).

Now, I am not suggesting that we throw older people under the bus. I'm over 60 myself, and not far off the first high risk group. What I am suggesting is that we have to look at ways to get nations moving again while protecting our elderly. The lockdowns were a useful *and necessary *tool to do this, but we have to start looking at ways out of this.

The lockdown kills too. In the UK, for example, referrals of cancer patients for specialist treatment fell by 76% last month. That will kill people too. There is substantial evidence that first responders are attending more deaths at home from strokes, heart attacks etc., because people are reluctant to call 999. That too is people dying, sometimes unecessarily.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

How does economic collapse alter the mortality rate?


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## Vincenzo (May 5, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 5th May
cases 213,013, +1,075, deaths 29,315, +236, recovered 85,231, +2,352, active cases 98,467, -1,513, tests 2,246,666, +55,263
fatality rate 13.8%
mortality rate 486 per million
test rate 37.2 per thousand
positive rate 9.5%
test rate today 916 per million
positive rate today 1.9%


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## Zipper730 (May 5, 2020)

New Strain of Coronavirus has Emerged

This is quite troubling. I'm not sure what the basic reproduction figures are for the new strain.


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## pbehn (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How does economic collapse alter the mortality rate?


That only refers to a recession within a country. Many oil producing nations in the middle east have economies based purely on oil based at a price of $60. Many countries are hugely reliant on tourism or trade using aircraft. While others rely heavily on remissions from their nationals working in richer countries.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

pbehn said:


> That only refers to a recession within a country. Many oil producing nations in the middle east have economies based purely on oil based at a price of $60. Many countries are hugely reliant on tourism or trade using aircraft. While others rely heavily on remissions from their nationals working in richer countries.



Of course there are different variables. Every country is going to be different.


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## pbehn (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Of course there are different variables. Every country is going to be different.


Of course, but people frequently refer to the 1918 pandemic. In 1918 the world population was 1.6 billion. That is just above the population of China and India today, it is quite possible that we aint seen nothing yet.


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## Zipper730 (May 5, 2020)

Deleted Post: I figured this is probably going to get the thread closed.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Of course, but people frequently refer to the 1918 pandemic. In 1918 the world population was 1.6 billion. That is just above the population of China and India today, it is quite possible that we aint seen nothing yet.



It certainly will be interesting too see where this all goes.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> That's a good question, what would you suspect?



Did you read it?

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## swampyankee (May 5, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Of course, but people frequently refer to the 1918 pandemic. In 1918 the world population was 1.6 billion. That is just above the population of China and India today, it is quite possible that we aint seen nothing yet.



The 1918 Spanish Flu (it was first detected at a US Army base in Kansas, which was once Spanish, but the reason it's the Spanish flu, not the Kansas flu, is because the Spanish newspapers weren't under the same censorship restrictions, so news of it was first published in Spain) is widely considered the most comparable pandemic, and it's certainly arguable that it's the most similar one for many years: Ebola never spread significantly beyond Africa, while measles, mumps, and polio were around for a very long time and had a fairly constant background level with occasional spikes. 

Yes, the world had fewer people; it also had far lower capability for medical care. The only method of slowing the spread of the epidemic was social distancing (quarantine). On about a third of the current population, the US had 675,000 deaths due to Spanish flu until it burned itself out, out of about 50,000,000 world wide. (the US was about 10% of the World's population at the time) Scaling the 675,000 to current US population would give about 1.9 million; the 50,000,000 worldwide value would scale to about 300,000,000 worldwide. There are a lot of poor, densely populated countries out there. I think that India, Pakistan, and Myanmar are going to be very hard hit.

Covid-19 is actually _not_ a flu, although influenza is also a highly mutating viral disease.


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## Zipper730 (May 5, 2020)

Yes I did, but I decided to delete my post because, while there was no intention to make it political: I figure there's no way it can be not interpreted as political, and I'd rather not get the thread locked down.

I was curious simply from the standpoint that you seem to be a reliable person.


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## Marcel (May 5, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> New Strain of Coronavirus has Emerged
> 
> This is quite troubling. I'm not sure what the basic reproduction figures are for the new strain.


Old news.

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## fubar57 (May 5, 2020)

Dating back to early March........


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## gumbyk (May 5, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Dating back to early March........


I read about there being over 30 identified strains, some deadlier than others. And the strains inthe US aren't the deadly ones...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Yes I did, but I decided to delete my post because, while there was no intention to make it political: I figure there's no way it can be not interpreted as political, and I'd rather not get the thread locked down.
> 
> I was curious simply from the standpoint that you seem to be a reliable person.



I think that there are trade offs. Social distancing stops infections, but it does hurt the economy too. I, however, don’t believe in the argument that the “Open Up At All Costs Because of the Economy” people always use. The argument that the cure will be worse than the disease. They say that deaths will rise because of people losing their jobs. Not, because I think that is false. Sure some suicides and deaths may increase, but not as much as if we lift all the restrictions. If you do that not only will deaths from the virus increase, but for all other causes as well because the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. The article touches on that a bit.

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## Zipper730 (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I read about there being over 30 identified strains, some deadlier than others. And the strains inthe US aren't the deadly ones...


Apparently the most lethal ones were hitting China and Italy.


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## pgeno71 (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think that there are trade offs. Social distancing stops infections, but it does hurt the economy too. I, however, don’t believe in the argument that the “Open Up At All Costs Because of the Economy” people always use. The argument that the cure will be worse than the disease. They say that deaths will rise because of people losing their jobs. Not, because I think that is false. Sure some suicides and deaths may increase, but not as much as if we lift all the restrictions. If you do that not only will deaths from the virus increase, but for all other causes as well because the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. The article touches on that a bit.



I agree with your logic, but balancing suicide deaths v. Covid deaths is still a brutal calculus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I agree with your logic, but balancing suicide deaths v. Covid deaths is still a brutal calculus.



I personally do not see suicide deaths outpacing Covid deaths.

is there any factual or scientific evidence that this would occur? Serious question.


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## Marcel (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I read about there being over 30 identified strains, some deadlier than others. And the strains inthe US aren't the deadly ones...


It's a fast mutating virus, like the flu. I have seem many genomes with all minor substitutions. Don't know what they consider to be a different 'strain' or that the media calls it that way.


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## gumbyk (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think that there are trade offs. Social distancing stops infections, but it does hurt the economy too. I, however, don’t believe in the argument that the “Open Up At All Costs Because of the Economy” people always use. The argument that the cure will be worse than the disease. They say that deaths will rise because of people losing their jobs. Not, because I think that is false. Sure some suicides and deaths may increase, but not as much as if we lift all the restrictions. If you do that not only will deaths from the virus increase, but for all other causes as well because the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. The article touches on that a bit.


We're getting epidemiologists and mental health experts now saying that we risk the unintended consequences being worse for the country than the virus. We've had 20 Covid deaths, and it will take less than a 10% increase in suicide to eclipse this.

I personally think we've gone too far with a countrywide lockdown. We've got regions that have been a month without any cases, so there is definitely a case for lifting lockdown regionally.
But... I'm not going to go out and ignore it to protest like an idiot


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> We're getting epidemiologists and mental health experts now saying that we risk the unintended consequences being worse for the country than the virus. We've had 20 Covid deaths, and it will take less than a 10% increase in suicide to eclipse this.
> 
> I personally think we've gone too far with a countrywide lockdown. We've got regions that have been a month without any cases, so there is definitely a case for lifting lockdown regionally.
> But... I'm not going to go out and ignore it to protest like an idiot



If your country has beaten it because your people did the right things, then by all means the economic effects would be worse at this point. But if a country does not have the spread under control, opening the country will not help anything. Things will get worse.

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## pgeno71 (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I personally do not see suicide deaths outpacing Covid deaths.
> 
> is there any factual or scientific evidence that this would occur? Serious question.



I don't believe suicides will outpace Covid deaths either, and I do not know of any studies addressing the current issue. In 2018, with a robust economy and no pandemic over 48,000 Americans committed suicide. During the Great Recession (2007-2010) there was a 4.8 percent increase in suicides in the US. What I meant by brutal was that as a society we are going to choose the option that costs the fewer number of human lives., knowing that continued isolation and personal economic devastation will cause more people to kill themselves. It is a sad situation.


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## fubar57 (May 5, 2020)

Only eight new cases in B.C. today, lowest since the beginning of March

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## gumbyk (May 5, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I don't believe suicides will outpace Covid deaths either, and I do not know of any studies addressing the current issue. In 2018, with a robust economy and no pandemic over 48,000 Americans committed suicide. During the Great Recession (2007-2010) there was a 4.8 percent increase in suicides in the US. What I meant by brutal was that as a society we are going to choose the option that costs the fewer number of human lives., knowing that continued isolation and personal economic devastation will cause more people to kill themselves. It is a sad situation.


Maybe not in the US. however, a 4.8% increase in NZ's rate would equate to 33 people. Significantly more than the 21 Covid deaths so far


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## wuzak (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> We're getting epidemiologists and mental health experts now saying that we risk the unintended consequences being worse for the country than the virus. We've had 20 Covid deaths, and it will take less than a 10% increase in suicide to eclipse this.
> 
> I personally think we've gone too far with a countrywide lockdown. We've got regions that have been a month without any cases, so there is definitely a case for lifting lockdown regionally.
> But... I'm not going to go out and ignore it to protest like an idiot



New Zealand can't be far from having no active cases?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I don't believe suicides will outpace Covid deaths either, and I do not know of any studies addressing the current issue. In 2018, with a robust economy and no pandemic over 48,000 Americans committed suicide. During the Great Recession (2007-2010) there was a 4.8 percent increase in suicides in the US. What I meant by brutal was that as a society we are going to choose the option that costs the fewer number of human lives., knowing that continued isolation and personal economic devastation will cause more people to kill themselves. It is a sad situation.



I agree it is a very sad situation. What do you do though? One is more likely to kill more than the other.


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## gumbyk (May 5, 2020)

wuzak said:


> New Zealand can't be far from having no active cases?



172 at the moment, and decreasing.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree it is a very sad situation. What do you do though? One is more likely to kill more than the other.


You listen to the experts. Unfotunately, we have experience at mental health issues following disasters, so there isn't a huge amount of speculation going on.


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## fubar57 (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> You listen to the experts.



That's what happened in B.C.. The only places ordered to close were, barbers, hair salons, manicurists and casinos as these places had extreme close contact. Every other business voluntarily closed down. Its hurting them a lot but they felt this was the best way and its showing. The Premier is going on tomorrow to discuss plans for partial reopening. To his credit, he is listening to Dr. Henry and the thought is he will just make a slightly bigger social bubble.

*




*​


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## nuuumannn (May 5, 2020)

stona said:


> The lockdowns were a useful *and necessary *tool to do this, but we have to start looking at ways out of this.



It's a tough one at the moment when we are in the middle of it and when things are so uncertain that a move in the wrong direction could so easily make things much worse. I was devastated to see that the USA government wants to end lockdown to get the economy rolling (and that Jared Kushner seems to think the US response is a 'success'), but to what end?

This is what supporters of getting the economy rolling don't really get. The whole world is suffering. The market has changed. Normal trade simply cannot happen because of what's going on everywhere else. Perhaps the USA can survive on its own resources and internal trade, but it will still have a detrimental effect on business not being able to trade internationally. And what happens if the ignorance of social distancing causes another peak in the virus? Are lives dispensible now?

Sensible governments should block international flights from the USA to stop the spread of this round the world. Build a wall I say!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> You listen to the experts.



I agree. It looks like you guys did just that.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 5, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> I was devastated to see that the USA government wants to end lockdown to get the economy rolling (and that Jared Kushner seems to think the US response is a 'success'), but to what end?



As quoted to Joseph Göbbels (whether that is true or not):

_“ If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”_


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## nuuumannn (May 5, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree. It looks like you guys did just that.



Yup, the government has acted strongly in resisting calls to bring the levels down, which are largely coming from across the political divide.


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## ThomasP (May 5, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 5
cases 7,821***, recovered 4,614, hospitalized 1,350, deaths 455**/***, tested 88,009*/***
fatality rate 5.8%
mortality rate 79.8 per million
test rate 15.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, and our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be almost constant. This appears true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed
cases, test rate, or death rate.


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## stona (May 6, 2020)

Our scare stories still continue. 

This one, from Liverpool, was about a family tragedy where a mother died in the same hospital in which her daughter was being treated. The daughter is quoted as saying that her mum didn't have any underlying health conditions, had type-2 diabetes, but was regularly at the gym and was "quite fit".

Diabetes is a known factor in Covid-19 fatalities and anyone with Type 2 diabetes cannot and should not be described as having no underlying health conditions. It is not just disingenuous it is factually incorrect. The lady who sadly died was also 65 years old, just nudging into the higher risk age range too.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 6, 2020)

They just lifted all restrictions in our county despite cases increasing.

i suspect cases and deaths will increase more, and then economy will suffer even more.

It’s all just a scare tactic hoax though. smh


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## fubar57 (May 6, 2020)

Good Lord. Wish you guys well down there


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 6, 2020)

58 percent of workers at Tyson meat factory in Iowa test positive for coronavirus

This is an example of why one needs better testing, and better worker protections, i.e. paid sick leave. If you open things up, as things are now you will never stop it. The economy will suffer even more because of worker shortages. You need to balance health/safety and the economy. One cannot be done without the other.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 6, 2020)



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## Shortround6 (May 6, 2020)

Florida is doing pretty much the same. the 3 counties near Miami have tighter restrictions and there were law suits being filed just on the strength of the announcements, on the basis of not being "fair" before the easing of the restrictions even took effect. 
Florida is a real microcosm of the whole country with some of the aspects even more exaggerated. We have the oldest, highest risk population. We also have an economy based on tourism/service and many of the jobs are low paying. We also have the lowest unemployment payouts in the nation. We also have some high density cities/urban areas and some low density agriculture areas (or swamp) with very few reported cases. We also have a fair number of fundamentalist churches. 

It is not a good recipe.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 6, 2020)

I think the naysayers will be in for a very rude “Told you So” awakening. Like with everything else, ego will get in the way, and blame will be deflected.


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## rochie (May 6, 2020)

649 deaths in UK in last 24 hours, yet hints that some easing of restrictions may start on monday !
That still seems pretty high number of people dying on a daily basis


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## Vincenzo (May 6, 2020)

Italy report, 5 pm CEST 6th May
cases 214,457, +1,444, deaths 29,684, +369, recovered 93,245, +8,014, active cases 91,528, -6,939, tests 2,310,929, +64,263
fatality rate 13.8%
mortality 492 per million
test rate 38.3 per thousand
positive rate 9.3%
test rate today 1,065 per million
positive rate today 2.2%


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## at6 (May 6, 2020)

How long before Covid becomes a Mosquito borne infection I wonder?


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## swampyankee (May 6, 2020)

at6 said:


> How long before Covid becomes a Mosquito borne infection I wonder?



Well, hypothetically, it already is: a person with Covid-19 could get bitten by a mosquito, which could then ingest some of the circulating virus from her victim (the mosquitoes that suck blood are all female; they need the iron in blood for egg development). Then, she could bite a second person and transfer some of the virus into a second person.

Since there is already a pretty effective, _direct_, person-person path, it's unlikely that the mosquito vector would become that important. 

I'm not an epidemiologist, so my knowledge is on the subject is strictly limited, nor do I have an MBA, so I don't think I know everything, but I think most arthropod-vectored illness (ticks, mosquitoes, and kissing bugs are all arthropods) are bacterial (Lyme) or protozoans (leishmaniasis, malaria, Chagas disease), not viral.


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## fubar57 (May 6, 2020)

The Premier has spoken, coming soon....family hugs.

"Small dinner parties, backyard barbecues and hugs with family are set to return to B.C., just in time for the Victoria Day long weekend, while haircuts and elective surgeries might be available again within weeks.
The provincial government announced its plans Wednesday for a gradual return to normal life in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As of next weekend, gatherings with two to six guests are OK, as long as there's a strict understanding that no one will socialize if they have any symptoms of COVID-19, including coughing and sneezing.
Even long-verboten signs of affection like hugging extended family members might be acceptable, as long as the recipient isn't vulnerable to serious illness"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-may-6-1.5556699


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## Crimea_River (May 6, 2020)

Alberta will make a call on a Stage 1 relaxations on May 14. There were "early" relaxations last week that opened parks, hiking trails, golf courses among other things. Golfed today with the new rules - flags stay in the hole (that are actually screwed in place), keep your separation (no problem with the way I play) use your own tees, once person per cart (though we walked). Oh, and don't kiss anyone's balls. The last one I made up. Here are Alberta's cases:

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## Vincenzo (May 6, 2020)

imho your assumption that after 2 weeks a people is recovered is too optimistic, in my town we have a asymptomatic positive after 48 days

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## gumbyk (May 6, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> imho your assumption that after 2 weeks a people is recovered is too optimistic, in my town we have a asymptomatic positive after 48 days


Yeah, we had a new infection here after 3 weeks too.

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## Crimea_River (May 6, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> imho your assumption that after 2 weeks a people is recovered is too optimistic, in my town we have a asymptomatic positive after 48 days



It's not MY assumption. This is from the official government website. The only way to make sure someone has recovered is to test them, and that's a waste of a test kit for most people. And while there may be cases recurring after 2 weeks, I understand that this is more the exception than the rule.

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## ThomasP (May 7, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 6
cases 8,579***, recovered 5,005, hospitalized 1,405, deaths 485**/***, tested 93,232*/***
fatality rate 5.7%
mortality rate 85.1 per million
test rate 16.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, and our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be almost constant. This appears true regardless of whether the controlling factor used is confirmed cases, test rate, or death rate.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 7, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> imho your assumption that after 2 weeks a people is recovered is too optimistic, in my town we have a asymptomatic positive after 48 days



Not really, 48 days is an outlier. Most people are found to have recovered at around 14 days. That does not mean that some do not take longer.

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## Airframes (May 7, 2020)

Hmm. I wonder if our UK Prime Minister will lower the threat level from "Irritated" to "Miffed" .........................

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 7, 2020)

AP Exclusive: US shelves detailed guide to reopening country

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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)

White house staff member tested positive?


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## rochie (May 7, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Hmm. I wonder if our UK Prime Minister will lower the threat level from "Irritated" to "Miffed" .........................


Think its going back up to "slightly annoyed"
Rumours of easing lockdown has fuelled speculation in the press about what will be allowed, so much the PM has issued a be cautious message to calm things down a bit !


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## Airframes (May 7, 2020)

Ah, well, as long as it doesn't go up to "Getting slightly p*ssed off", we should be OK for now !

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## Vincenzo (May 7, 2020)

Italy report, 7th May 5 pm CEST 
cases 215,858, +1,401, deaths 29,958, +274, recovered 96,276, +3,031, active cases 89,624, -1,904, tests 2,381,288, +70,359
fatality rate 13.9%
mortality rate 497 per million
test rate 39.5 per thousand
positive rate 9.1%
infected rate 3,579 per million (cases/population)
active rate 1,486 per million (active cases/population)
test rate today 1,166 per million
positive rate today 2%
new cases today 23 per million


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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)

One of Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus


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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 7, 2020)

Everybody hurry up and spread this before the White House makes a statement saying otherwise.

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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)

I've been saving these for this moment....thanks

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## Airframes (May 7, 2020)

"And verily, there shall be pestilence and a great gnashing of teeth, for it is written". 
Virus pandemic, plagues of locusts in Africa, Murder Hornets .......... **** me, what's next, non-stop Justin Bieber ?
AARGH !!!!!!!!!!!

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## buffnut453 (May 7, 2020)

Methinks it's time for the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch...if it can kill the Legendary Black Beast of Arrrghhh in the Cave of Caerbannog, perhaps it can sort out the Killer Hornets from Outer Space (or wherever they come from)?





Personally, I think I'm going a bit funny. Do you think maybe I've been in isolation too long?

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## Marcel (May 7, 2020)

What’s all this about murder hornets?


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## buffnut453 (May 7, 2020)

Marcel said:


> What’s all this about murder hornets?



An invasive species that has hit the US:

"Murder hornets" have now entered the U.S. — and they could decimate the honeybee population - CBS News


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## MiTasol (May 7, 2020)

Airframes said:


> "And verily, there shall be pestilence and a great gnashing of teeth, for it is written".
> Virus pandemic, plagues of locusts in Africa, Murder Hornets .......... **** me, what's next, non-stop Justin Bieber ?
> AARGH !!!!!!!!!!!


That would triple the suicide rate within hours

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## Marcel (May 7, 2020)

Was th


buffnut453 said:


> An invasive species that has hit the US:
> 
> "Murder hornets" have now entered the U.S. — and they could decimate the honeybee population - CBS News


Was this before or after Will Smith killed the aliens?


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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent...fer-little-threat-to-humans-experts-1.5556549


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## ThomasP (May 7, 2020)

Bring'em on...bring-em on.




available at all Bug Killers "R" Us stores (not really)

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## pgeno71 (May 7, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Bring'em on...bring-em on.
> View attachment 580491
> 
> available at all Bug Killers "R" Us stores (not really)



No way, those things are over two inches long. I say we go old school...

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## fubar57 (May 7, 2020)

You'll only make them madder


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 7, 2020)




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## ThomasP (May 8, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 7
cases 9,365***, recovered 5,308, hospitalized 1,459, deaths 508**/***, tested 97,421*/***
fatality rate 5.4%
mortality rate 89.1 per million
test rate 17.1 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly due to the increased rate of testing. The death rate appears to be remaining steady.


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## cherry blossom (May 8, 2020)

There is a very interesting way of showing the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on the death rate in England and Wales at COVID-19 - Florence Nightingale Diagram's of UK Deaths - CEBM

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## vikingBerserker (May 8, 2020)

This is interesting, Vitamin D deficiency might play a role in the severity of COVID 19. If true, this might help explain why it impacts some races more than others.

Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates: Patients with severe deficiency are twice as likely to experience major complications


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## Crimea_River (May 8, 2020)

"Breaking News" this morning. Worst jobless rate in decades!

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## fubar57 (May 8, 2020)

Can't wait to hear what the "reporters" say at the 8 o'clock this morning about this


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## Crimea_River (May 8, 2020)

Question: "Good morning Mr. Trudeau. When will the jobless rate be back to normal?"

Answer: "We are very aware of the importance of getting people back to work from coast to coast to coast. That's why we have established a committee to study the issue, whose mandate is to come back with some recommendations on how we should create the right climate for our working people to return to work so that our economy can come roaring back. We will be able to share those recommendations with you very soon."

"Et en francais?"

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## fubar57 (May 8, 2020)

LMAO.....yes!!


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## Crimea_River (May 8, 2020)

Actually, delete "We are very aware" and replace with "We recognize". "Very aware" belongs to Freeland.


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## buffnut453 (May 8, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Question: "Good morning Mr. Trudeau. When will the jobless rate be back to normal?"
> 
> Answer: "We are very aware of the importance of getting people back to work from coast to coast to coast. That's why we have established a committee to study the issue, whose mandate is to come back with some recommendations on how we should create the right climate for our working people to return to work so that our economy can come roaring back. We will be able to share those recommendations with you very soon."
> 
> "Et en francais?"



In English we say "Sorry, I haven't a clue!"


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## Vincenzo (May 8, 2020)

Italy report, 8th May 5 PM CEST
cases 217,185, +1,327, deaths 30,201, +243, recovered 99,023, +1,847, active cases 87,961, -763, tests 2,445,063, +63,775
fatality rate 13.9%
mortality rate 501 per million
test rate 40.5 per thousand
positive rate 8.9%
total case rate 3,601 per million
active case rate 1,458 per million
test rate today 1,057 per million
positive rate today 2.1%
new case rate today 22 per million


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## MiTasol (May 8, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> This is interesting, Vitamin D deficiency might play a role in the severity of COVID 19. If true, this might help explain why it impacts some races more than others.
> 
> Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates: Patients with severe deficiency are twice as likely to experience major complications



That means many people on statins are at an increased risk. Simplified to h*ll - sunlight acting on the cholesterol in your body makes vitamin D.


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## ThomasP (May 9, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 8
cases 10,088***, recovered 5,697, hospitalized 1,549, deaths 534**/***, tested 101,270*/***
fatality rate 5.3%
mortality rate 93.7 per million
test rate 17.8 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, there are currently more available than needed to meet the demands of testing for suspected COVID-19 cases and first responder/healthcare/medical personnel. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109. 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly due to the increased rate of testing. The death rate appears to be remaining steady.


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## rochie (May 9, 2020)

An average of 500+ people a day are dying of covid-19 complications here in the UK that we know of yet there seems to be real pressure gathering to ease restrictions !


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## Dinger (May 9, 2020)

cherry blossom said:


> There is a very interesting way of showing the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on the death rate in England and Wales at COVID-19 - Florence Nightingale Diagram's of UK Deaths - CEBM


Thanks for posting this. A brilliant way of displaying the statistics. - And to think Florence Nightingale came up with this type of graph back in the Crimea war! - Clever Girl! If any idiot still says to me "this is just like seasonal flu" I'll show them this graph.


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## Vincenzo (May 9, 2020)

Italy report, 9th May 5 pm CEST
cases 218,268, +1,083, deaths 30,395, +194, recovered 103,031, +4,008, active cases 84,842, -3,119 , tests 2,514,234, +69,171
fatality rate 13.9%
mortality rate 504 per million
test rate 41.7 per thousand
positive rate 8.7%
total case rate 3,619 per million
active case rate 1,407 per million
test rate today 1,147 per million
positive rate today 1.6%
new case rate today 18 per million


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## CATCH 22 (May 9, 2020)

cherry blossom said:


> There is a very interesting way of showing the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on the death rate in England and Wales at COVID-19 - Florence Nightingale Diagram's of UK Deaths - CEBM


Some time ago I started thinking that all of these Covid "news" have been written by robots learning whatever language they use from Google. The above "article" consists of 5 sentences. One of them is this:
_"Florence Nightingale used a form of radial plots to display data from the Crimean War and to demonstrate that better hygiene would reduce the death rate amongst soldiers could be reduced by better hygiene."
_


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## pbehn (May 9, 2020)

rochie said:


> An average of 500+ people a day are dying of covid-19 complications here in the UK that we know of yet there seems to be real pressure gathering to ease restrictions !


Most of it coming from our press creche who are so keen to have a "scoop" that they are becoming like a Monty Python script "it is a sign". After demanding "quarantine" for all new arrivals to UK to UK they have just realised no one will go into 2 weeks quarantine for a holiday to London and anyone having a weekend in Paris will be a "new arrival" when they come back. They are slowly coming around to the full horror of the situation, London will never be the same. Without a transport system, bars, theatres, cinemas and restaurants what is it?

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## fubar57 (May 9, 2020)

Edinburgh.? Sorry.....an old joke I heard when I was in Scotland years ago

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## kiwimac (May 9, 2020)

We here in NZ are slowly coming out of lockdown. It's been a long hike frankly but a necessary one.


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## MiTasol (May 9, 2020)

cherry blossom said:


> There is a very interesting way of showing the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on the death rate in England and Wales at COVID-19 - Florence Nightingale Diagram's of UK Deaths - CEBM



What I found most interesting was the fact that the weeks just before and just after Christmas always have a significantly lower death toll.


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## pbehn (May 9, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> What I found most interesting was the fact that the weeks just before and just after Christmas always have a significantly lower death toll.


That probably is due to reporting, not only are people like coroners not working neither is anyone else. Deaths generally have two dates, the first when the person dies and the second when the cause of death is confirmed by whatever means. Its a bit like no one has ever officially died in the UK houses of parliament and probably never will "officially" because it is a royal palace as well as the centre of government.


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## Vincenzo (May 10, 2020)

Italy report, 10th May 5 pm CEST
cases 219,070, +802, deaths 30,560, +165, recovered 105,186, +2,155, active cases 83,324, -1,518, tests 2,565,912, +51,678
fatality rate 13.9%
mortality rate 507 per million
test rate 42.5 per thousand
positive rate 8.5%
total cases rate 3,632 per million
active cases rate 1,381 per million
test rate today 857 per million
positive rate today 1.6%
new cases rate today 13 per million


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## Airframes (May 10, 2020)

Saw on the BBC Internet News, that the infection rate in Germany has increased since lifting the lock down. Now there's a surprise ............
I guess we'd better get used to lock down for some time to come.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 10, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Saw on the BBC Internet News, that the infection rate in Germany has increased since lifting the lock down. Now there's a surprise ............
> I guess we'd better get used to lock down for some time to come.



Same with South Korea.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 10, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy report, 10th May 5 pm CEST
> cases 219,070, +802, deaths 30,560, +165, recovered 105,186, +2,155, active cases 83,324, -1,518, tests 2,565,912, +51,678
> fatality rate 13.9%
> mortality rate 507 per million
> ...



Glad your numbers are coming down.

I suspect the US numbers will start to go up even more.


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## Vincenzo (May 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Glad your numbers are coming down.
> 
> I suspect the US numbers will start to go up even more.



I hope the Italy numbers continue to go down also after the relaxing of lock down, the next week we will see the result 

I also hope the in US will go fine, i've many relatives there, one aunt, 2 first cousins, 2 first cousins once removed, and many 2nd cousins and their off springs


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## at6 (May 10, 2020)

pbehn said:


> London will never be the same. Without a transport system, bars, theatres, cinemas and restaurants what is it?


San Francisco?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 10, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I hope the Italy numbers continue to go down also after the relaxing of lock down, the next week we will see the result
> 
> I also hope the in US will go fine, i've many relatives there, one aunt, 2 first cousins, 2 first cousins once removed, and many 2nd cousins and their off springs



At least you guys waited until you got it under control. The dumpster fire in the US continues to burn, and we just started putting more fuel on the fire.


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## TheMadPenguin (May 10, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Which is worse, the virus or the reaction to it?


Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.

Today's Imponderable: What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?


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## ThomasP (May 10, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 9
cases 10,790***, recovered 6,322, hospitalized 1,549, deaths 558**/***, tested 106,263*/***
fatality rate 5.2%
mortality rate 97.9 per million
test rate 18.6 per thousand*
<
<
Minnesota report, May 10
cases 11,271***, recovered 6,882, hospitalized 1,657, deaths 578**/***, tested 111,088*/***
fatality rate 5.1%
mortality rate 101 per million
test rate 19.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109, and 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing. HOWEVER, over the last 10 days, the new hospitalization rate has slowly increased from 118/day to 199/day. The death rate has remained steady for the last 10 days at 20-30 per day.


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## MiTasol (May 10, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
> Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.


I would say that should be
Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
Answer 2: That likely depends on which risk group you are in.
Answer 2: The reaction, which will depend on whether your area is opening up too fast or too slow.

At present mine seems to be opening about right but other states like Victoria are opening while the infection rate is climbing again. Thank the gods there are two borders between there and here.


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## Crimea_River (May 10, 2020)

I think this guy is spot on:


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## ThomasP (May 10, 2020)

Hey TheMadPenguin,

re your post#2,184: "Today's Imponderable: What would . . ."

There is quite a bit at the link below related to your question (not specifically H1N1 but to similar viruses) with the focus on planning for the eventuality.

"National Pandemic Strategy | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC"

Note the continued plan updates at the bottom of the website page.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 10, 2020)

A good friend of mine who happened to be one of those not taking this seriously, and foolishly thinking the reaction to the virus Is an overreaction just announced on FB his mother was just put on a ventilator because of it.


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## MiTasol (May 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> A good friend of mine who happened to be one of those not taking this seriously, and foolishly thinking the reaction to the virus Is an overreaction just announced on FB his mother was just put on a ventilator because of it.



I hate to say _it serves him right _but only because it is his mother, not him, who is infected


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 10, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I hate to say _it serves him right _but only because it is his mother, not him, who is infected



I don’t know what kind of contact he had with her, if she was working, or if she was social distancing.


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## MiTasol (May 10, 2020)

Either way I hope he feels as guilty as **** because it is highly likely she was taking a lot of her clues from him and not social distancing


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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2020)

Hmm...wonder if he still thinks people are over-reacting? Either way, I hope his Mum beats the virus and pulls through.

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## nuuumannn (May 11, 2020)

Here in NZ we are about to move to Alert level 2, which some people are saying couldn't come soon enough. I have to admit, going a bit stir crazy. Here's what Level 2 will look like:

Alert Level 2

It'll take a few weeks to determine what the impact of opening up shops, restaurants and bars and allowing lengthy travel within the country will be, whether the decreasing rate of infection will continue or whether it will increase as a result of Level 3 restrictions being lifted.

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## Vincenzo (May 11, 2020)

Italy report, 11th May 5 pm CEST
cases 219,814, +744, deaths 30,739, +179, recovered 106,587 , +1,401, active cases 82,488, -836, tests 2,606,652, +40,740
fatality rate 14%
mortality rate 510 per million
test rate 43.2 per thousand
positive rate 8.4%
total case rate 3,644 per million
active case rate 1,368 per million
test rate today 675 per million
positive rate today 1.8%
new case rate today 12 per million


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## swampyankee (May 11, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Answer 1: That likely depends on whether you lost family members to it;
> Answer 2: FORTUNATELY the reaction.
> 
> Today's Imponderable: What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?



There's data out there. Cities within the US which responded rapidly with social distancing and quarantining did better than those which didn't. Compare, for example, St Louis and Philadelphia.

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## MiTasol (May 11, 2020)

Here in Aus they are also opening up and some of it makes no sense at all.
Restaraunts are allowed 10 patrons - regardless of size. 
Our two favourite restaraunts hold 16 people and over 200 people respectively and both are only allowed the same number of patrons. The small one cannot social distance with more than one table.

And I got this from a friend in the US. I am sure many will agree with it. I think it was written by a woman and I have removed the political words.

THE COVID IS RAGING
MY LIFE IS A MESS
I LIVE IN PYJAMAS
AND DON’T HAVE TO DRESS

I’M IN ISOLATION
JUST STAYING AT HOME
AND WOULD GIVE MY LAST DOLLAR
TO BE FREE TO ROAM

I’M SERIOUSLY AT RISK
(OR THAT’S WHAT THEY SAY)
TELLING ME TO STAY IN
AND NOT GO OUT EACH DAY

IN MY HEAD I’M SO YOUNG
THOUGH MY LICENCE REVEALS
I’M A 70-PLUS SENIOR
(BUT THAT’S NOT HOW IT FEELS!)

WHEN I RUN OUT OF FOOD
AND DELIVERIES ARE LATE
I HAVE TO BUY GROCERIES
BETWEEN 7 AND 8

SO EARLY IN THE MORNING
I HEAD OUT TO RESTOCK
AND DISCOVER A LINE UP
THAT WINDS ‘ROUND THE BLOCK

SOCIAL DISTANCING SENIORS
ALL 6 FEET APART
MAKE ME WONDER JUST WHEN
I BECAME AN OLD FART

MY MEALS ARE REPETITIVE
(A LOT LIKE MY GAS!)
AND I’M TIRED OF DISCUSSING
WHY ***** IS AN ASS

MY LATEST NEW OUTFIT
IS GLOVES AND A MASK
AND I’M STARTING TO WONDER
IF I’M UP TO THIS TASK

I WASH ALL MY GROCERIES
ALL FRUIT, MEAT AND VEG.......
WILL THIS ADDITIONAL PRECAUTION
TIP ME OVER THE EDGE?

MY BEAUTIFUL BROWN HAIR
HAS WIDE ROOTS OF GREY
NO HAIRDRESSERS AROUND
TO HELP WASH THEM AWAY

I’VE BEEN TALKING TO MYSELF
NOW I’M ANSWERING BACK
IS IT MONDAY OR FRIDAY?
I’VE REALLY LOST TRACK

I’VE STOPPED DOING HOUSEWORK
IT’S WEEKS SINCE I’VE DUSTED
AND I KNOW WITHOUT VISITORS
I’LL NEVER GET BUSTED

I FACETIME MY FRIENDS
OR WE GROUP CHAT ON ZOOM
AND TRY TO PRETEND
WE’RE ALL IN THE SAME ROOM

THANK GOD LIQUOR STORES
ARE CONSIDERED ‘ESSENTIAL’
WITHOUT DAILY DRINKS
THIS WOULD DRIVE US ALL MENTAL

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE
IT IS GOOD TO REFLECT
ON WHAT THIS ALL MEANS
AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT

IT’S A TIME TO BE GRATEFUL
FOR ALL THAT WE’VE GOT
LIKE A WARM HOUSE AND FOOD
THAT OTHERS HAVE NOT

THE BOTTOM LINE HERE
BY THE TIME THIS ALL ENDS
IS THAT WE’LL GET THROUGH IT
WITH OUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS

SO EVEN IF YOUR PARTNER
IS A BIT OF A GRUMP
YOU CAN REALLY BE GRATEFUL
YOU’RE NOT MARRIED TO *****!

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## swampyankee (May 11, 2020)

Here (Connecticut, just to the right of New York on the map), they'll be allowing restaurants to open outside seating areas starting on May 20th, then may go to allowing dine-in eating at 50% of capacity, so patrons can be seated in groups six feet apart. Restaurants were allowed to sell food for delivery or for take-out, but this didn't work quite so well for bars. Some restaurants were also selling drinks for take-out although this is technically illegal it doesn't seem to be enforced. Regardless, this has been very bad for restaurant staff, especially the people who work in the front of the house as their income is almost entirely dependent on tips.


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## fubar57 (May 11, 2020)

Latest B.C. numbers.















​Good enough for me to return to work Wednesday night


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## nuuumannn (May 11, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> What would have been the change to the 1918-1919-1920 plague if we'd responded to it as we have the Wuhan Kung Flu?



A damn site better than what traditionally happened. Following the war, the Pacific Islands, previously distanced from the effects of the 'flu because of their geography, suffered terribly as a result of their reliance on seaborne trade with New Zealand. Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji, the Cook islands all had very high rates of infection, with Western Samoa being the worst, oddly, because American Samoa managed to stave off the effects and didn't suffer a single fatality.

Why? Because the US governor of American Samoa had monitored the effects the 'flu was having in the continental USA and decided to take matters into his own hands, placing a quarantine in effect across the whole island and no ships from NZ were allowed, nursing stations were set up around the island and social distancing measures were put in place. US navy ships were brought in as offshore hospitals where the contaminated were removed to, to avoid the virus' spread. He warned the NZ governor of Western Samoa to do the same, but alas he did not and the population suffered extraordinarily high rates of death and infection.

How American Samoa Kept a Pandemic at Bay | James Stout

If ever there was a demonstration of the effectiveness of the imposition of lockdown compared to when it isn't imposed, this is it.

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## TheMadPenguin (May 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That is a problem everywhere my friend. Modern news media is a business. It is not here to simply report the news anymore. It is all opinion based, and distorted sensationalized alternative facts to increase ratings and profit.
> *Below is not meant to he political. Please do not take it as such. It just explains how media in the US has become.*
> 
> What actually happened:
> ...



This illustrates American PARTISANSHIP, more than Politics. I meet partisanship all over the web; I meet very little politics anywhere.

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## ThomasP (May 12, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 11
cases 11,799***, recovered 7,536, hospitalized 1,716, deaths 591**/***, tested 115,781*/***
fatality rate 5.0%
mortality rate 103.7 per million
test rate 20.3 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**Approximately 80% of Minnesota COVID-19 deaths have been from cases originating in nursing homes and assisted care facilities. As of today, the youngest to die was 30 years old, the oldest was 109, and 98% of deaths have occurred among patients with underlying health conditions. In Minnesota the median age of death is 83.
***The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing. HOWEVER, over the last 10 days, the new hospitalization rate has slowly increased from 118/day to 199/day. The average death rate for the last 10 days is 22.5 per day.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)



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## ThomasP (May 12, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota report, May 11

If I am calculating it right, the average per capita daily death rate for Minnesota has just passed that of Italy.

Minnesota__ 22.5/million
Italy________21.8/million


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## nuuumannn (May 12, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> If I am calculating it right, the average per capita daily death rate for Minnesota has just passed that of Italy.



Hang in there mate.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


>


Yeaatchh! KOOLAID tastes better!

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> This illustrates American PARTISANSHIP, more than Politics.


What's the difference, heh? Partisanship & Politics Promote Pissed-off People. Consensus Deteriorates Catastrophically.

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## ThomasP (May 12, 2020)

Although it can be argued to a minor extent, the following is the difference between Politics and Partisanship.

Politics (in the national or state sense) is a mechanism or system used to achieve an outcome oriented toward management of a social group. Politics is inherently neither moral nor immoral, anymore than a pencil, a car, or a gun is.

Partisanship is promoting one idea over another, and may be moral, immoral, or neither.

Pencils do not misspell words, cars do not cause accidents, and guns do not shoot people. In the same sense, a political system does not misspell words, cause accidents, or shoot people. There is no inherent moral or immoral nature in pencils, cars, guns, or politics.

By definition, a Partisan is a person, and Partisanship sets one group against another. If one group wants to use a Tungsten-Carbide cutting tool and the other wants to use High Speed Steel, it can be argued that the intent is neither moral nor immoral. When one group argues that Tungsten-Carbide should not be used due to the need to purchase the material from a country that uses slaves to mine and process the Tungsten, it can be considered to be a morally good thing to not use Tungsten-Carbide. If the group in favor of using High Speed Steel lies to the other group in order to generate sales for a company owned by one of the group, a company that buys its Tungsten from the same country that uses slave labor mentioned above, that group can be considered to be acting immorally.

People misspell words, cause traffic accidents, and shoot people. In addition, pencils, cars, and guns can all be used to kill people. In the same way, people who behave in a Partisan manner are responsible for how a Political system is used - morally, immorally, or neither. Partisans sometimes use Politics to kill people.

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## stona (May 12, 2020)

The United States is about to take part in a large experiment to establish whether removing restrictions at a time when a pandemic is not under control will lead to a rapid increase in infections (and inevitably hospitalisations and deaths), or not.

Millions of Americans will unwittingly or reluctantly be the guinea pigs in this experiment.

The two probable outcomes are widely at variance with each other. If the medical experts are correct, then hundreds of thousands of Americans will die. If the politicians are correct, then the virus will go away and everything will be fine.

The results will not be in for a couple of months, but I found this graph which does not look very promising for the politicians.


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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Yeaatchh! KOOLAID tastes better!


Understanding how a mask works helps keep some people from looking like an ass.
An N95 (NIOSH) mask has filtration that prevents passage of pathogens.
ANYTHING else is either ineffective or harmful. A cloth mask, for example, captures moisture from a person's breath and attracts microbes/bacteria and creates an environment favorable to pathogens.
In addition, every single time a person wears a mask, it must be properly disposed of after wearing, not placed on the counter, car seat, in a purse, at cetera - no one follows this rule because no one cares enough to educate the public.
People who should wear a mask are people at risk with compromised immune systems, people who are sick (with the virus, etc.) and people who work around others that may be compromised.
Otherwise, a mask is not nessecary for a healthy peraon and is both a placebo and a waste of a mask that otherwise could be useful to someone who really needs it.

The Surgeon General of the U.S. has been trying to tell people about this very thing and it appears no one is paying attention...

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## Marcel (May 12, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Understanding how a mask works helps keep some people from looking like an ass.
> An N95 (NIOSH) mask has filtration that prevents passage of pathogens.
> ANYTHING else is either ineffective or harmful. A cloth mask, for example, captures moisture from a person's breath and attracts microbes/bacteria and creates an environment favorable to pathogens.
> In addition, every single time a person wears a mask, it must be properly disposed of after wearing, not placed on the counter, car seat, in a purse, at cetera - no one follows this rule because no one cares enough to educate the public.
> ...


A specialist here said that masks prevent 10 to 40% of the virusses to reach the nose or mouth. With other words, it'll do nothing.

I just heard I'll have to work from home until the 1st of september. Pffff....


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## rochie (May 12, 2020)

No hotels open until 4th july at the earliest, yet there is now talk of the government furlough scheme being cut to 60% of salary !
I cannot pay all my bills, rent etc if i only have 60%of what i normally earn.

Hoping we reopen before that happens.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Otherwise, a mask is not nessecary for a healthy peraon and is both a placebo and a waste of a mask that otherwise could be useful to someone who really needs it.


Not according to what I've read. A mask doesn't exist to protect the wearer, but to protect others from the wearer. Even a cloth mask with a removable paper towel liner is effective for this if it's properly sanitized and liner replaced after use. Given the idiosyncrasies of this virus, *nobody* is known to be non-infectious, even if they're ostensibly "healthy".
I lucked out and stumbled on a package of N95s tucked away in my wood shop. Gave one to my lady friend, kept one for myself, and gave the rest to my local health center. Mine has lettering on the front: "My mask protects YOU. YOUR mask protects me. WHERE IS IT??"
I expect mask wearing will become the new normal and go on indefinitely, as will social distancing and a downsized economy. This thing isn't going away anytime soon.
Cheers,
Wes

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Politics (in the national or state sense) is a mechanism or system used to achieve an outcome oriented toward management of a social group





ThomasP said:


> Partisanship is promoting one idea over another


We all know the definitions. The point is they're equally effective at creating divisiveness, closed mindedness, and weaponized personal interactions. Leading, at best, to functional paralysis and at worst to outright warfare.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> Understanding how a mask works helps keep some people from looking like an ass.
> An N95 (NIOSH) mask has filtration that prevents passage of pathogens.
> ANYTHING else is either ineffective or harmful. A cloth mask, for example, captures moisture from a person's breath and attracts microbes/bacteria and creates an environment favorable to pathogens.
> In addition, every single time a person wears a mask, it must be properly disposed of after wearing, not placed on the counter, car seat, in a purse, at cetera - no one follows this rule because no one cares enough to educate the public.
> ...



Except you are conveniently ignoring two points...

1. The Surgeon General is appointed, and pushing the agenda of the administration.

2. Pretty much every medical expert that is not a so called “Facebook Expert” says to wear the masks because:

A. due to the high numbers of asymptomatic people, and not knowing who is sick and who isn’t it will help lower the transmission of the disease.

B. Even if a mask is not 100% effective it lowers the risk of transmission, especially when multiple people are wearing it, because it protects the healthy person from the sick person.

But sure, lets ignore the medical community, and take the word of one who is obviously pushing a prescribed agenda.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)



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## buffnut453 (May 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Not according to what I've read. A mask doesn't exist to protect the wearer, but to protect others from the wearer. Even a cloth mask with a removable paper towel liner is effective for this if it's properly sanitized and liner replaced after use. Given the idiosyncrasies of this virus, *nobody* is known to be non-infectious, even if they're ostensibly "healthy".
> I lucked out and stumbled on a package of N95s tucked away in my wood shop. Gave one to my lady friend, kept one for myself, and gave the rest to my local health center. Mine has lettering on the front: "My mask protects YOU. YOUR mask protects me. WHERE IS IT??"
> I expect mask wearing will become the new normal and go on indefinitely, as will social distancing and a downsized economy. This thing isn't going away anytime soon.
> Cheers,
> Wes



Exactly! Wearing a mask doesn't protect the wearer from infection but even a cloth covering over the mouth and nose will prevent the escape of droplets. A large proportion of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic or only suffer very mild symptoms, which means they could be (and almost certainly are) spreading the virus unknowingly to their friends, neighbours, work colleagues etc. Wearing masks will help slow that innocent transmission.

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## fubar57 (May 12, 2020)

I must have finally achieved my goal of becoming a time traveller....

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Exactly! Wearing a mask doesn't protect the wearer from infection but even a cloth covering over the mouth and nose will prevent the escape of droplets. A large proportion of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic or only suffer very mild symptoms, which means they could be (and almost certainly are) spreading the virus unknowingly to their friends, neighbours, work colleagues etc. Wearing masks will help slow that innocent transmission.



It amazes me how people don’t seem to grasp something so simple, that or choose to simply ignore it. How the hell did we become a super power? I guess it does take brains to wield a big stick.

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## Crimea_River (May 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> ,,,,,. Mine has lettering on the front: "My mask protects YOU. YOUR mask protects me. WHERE IS IT??"
> ......



Doesn't the other person need to be closer than 6 feet to read that?

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## Marcel (May 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Except you are conveniently ignoring two points...
> 
> 1. The Surgeon General is appointed, and pushing the agenda of the administration.
> 
> ...


Except for the fact that the medical community is not unanimous. Our experts actually say that masks are not effective. They call it 'schijn veiligheid' or 'false sense of security'. As Dave points out, they only help if used correctly. I can attest to that. Used in a wrong way, it only enhances spreading the virus. In the best situation it is estimated here that a mask will prevent somwhere between 10 nd 40% of virus particals from reaching your nose or mouth. There is also no good scientific ground to conclude that it will reduce the transmission. It's never been researched properly. Meanwhile we will all use up masks that they need so badly in our hospitals, so I'm not in favour of everybody wearing them.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Except for the fact that the medical community is not unanimous. Our experts actually say that masks are not effective. They call it 'schijn veiligheid' or 'false sense of security'. As Dave points out, they only help if used correctly. I can attest to that. Used in a wrong way, it only enhances spreading the virus. In the best situation it is estimated here that a mask will prevent somwhere between 10 nd 40% of virus particals from reaching your nose or mouth. There is also no good scientific ground to conclude that it will reduce the transmission. It's never been researched properly. Meanwhile we will all use up masks that they need so badly in our hospitals, so I'm not in favour of everybody wearing them.



I do not disagree that people need to wear them properly. That will never happen either way because a huge segment of the population will play the “You can’t tell me what to do BS”.

Even with regular cloth masks, any reduction of droplets entering the air, lowers the risk. If everyone is wearing a mask, the risk should be reduced, even if only by a little. That does not mean people should stop taking other precautions. With not knowing who is sick, and who isn’t, I think that is reasonable. How can anyone reasonably expect to feel safe shopping, getting a haircut, going out to eat, and not knowing who is sick and who isn’t.

As for using up the supply of masks that our healthcare providers desperately need, I agree whole heartedly. The supplies have not been properly maintained or procured. That is another failure of a country and states leadership, and that problem has probably persisted for decades.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)

One also has to remember the purpose of the mask is not to protect yourself, but those around you. In an environment where testing is still lackluster, and no one knows who has it and who doesn’t, masks sure as hell seem like a good idea to me when they reduce the number of droplets in the air.


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## rochie (May 12, 2020)

My worries were unfounded, government is not lowering financial assistance for those who cannot work because the business is closed because of the virus

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## fubar57 (May 12, 2020)

Good stuff Karl

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## Vincenzo (May 12, 2020)

Italy report, 12th May 5 pm CEST
cases 221,216, +1,402, deaths 30,911, +172, recovered 109,039, +2,452, active cases 81,266, -1,222, tests 2,673,655, +67,003
fatality rate 14%
mortality rate 512 per million
test rate 44.3 per thousand
positive rate 8.3%
total case rate 3,668 per million
active case rate 1,347 per million
test rate today 1,111 per million
positive rate today 2.1%
new case rate today 23 per million


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## rochie (May 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Good stuff Karl


One less thing to worry about


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## pbehn (May 12, 2020)

In my opinion the mask discussion is just to get people back on trains and buses closer than 2m apart.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It amazes me how people don’t seem to grasp something so simple, that or choose to simply ignore it.


"WTF? Sounds like hocus-pocus to ME! If it doesn't protect ME, WHY TF WEAR IT, and look like a F_ _ _ING DORK??"

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Doesn't the other person need to be closer than 6 feet to read that?


BOLD BLOCK CAPITAL LETTERS on the mask and cloth splashguard attached below it.


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## Capt. Vick (May 12, 2020)

Went for a walk on the boardwalk at Jones beach with wife and son. About half the people were wearing masks and most were observing social distancing. The boardwalk was somewhat partitioned to keep the east and west bound traffic separate. Included this picture of the west bath house because it looks good and the flags are at half mast.

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## MiTasol (May 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Except you are conveniently ignoring two points...
> 
> 1. The Surgeon General is appointed, and pushing the agenda of the administration.
> 
> ...



And wear one if you have an ingrained habit of touching your face for any reasons as it keeps your fingers off your skin


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And wear one if you have an ingrained habit of touching your face for any reasons as it keeps your fingers off your skin



People have tendency to touch their face more with a mask I believe. You really have to discipline yourself.


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## pbehn (May 12, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "WTF? Sounds like hocus-pocus to ME! If it doesn't protect ME, WHY TF WEAR IT, and look like a F_ _ _ING DORK??"


Exactly how I feel about airport security, I just tell them I havnt a bomb or gun and they say "have a nice flight sir" and wave me through.


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## fubar57 (May 12, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Exactly how I feel about airport security, I just tell them I havnt a bomb or gun and they say "have a nice flight sir" and wave me through.


A few years ago I was flying from PG to Vancouver and went through security. My pockets were emptied and my luggage checked. As I went by the security guard I asked him, "What about a cavity check?" He looked confused and said, "Wut?" I said, "I really want one." He said, "Not on my watch buddy"

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## pbehn (May 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> A few years ago I was flying from PG to Vancouver and went through security. My pockets were emptied and my luggage checked. As I went by the security guard I asked him, "What about a cavity check?" He looked confused and said, "Wut?" I said, "I really want one." He said, "Not on my watch buddy"


Try that in Europe and you will probably get one, or at least an interview long enough to screw up your whole trip.

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## fubar57 (May 12, 2020)

When we were flying back security took my son aside, I'm assuming for a drug check. After I had been processed and went through he was already there waiting for me. I asked him how long he had been waiting for me and he said about 15 min. Next time I'm claiming drugs.............

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## gumbyk (May 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> When we were flying back security took my son aside, I'm assuming for a drug check. After I had been processed and went through he was already there waiting for me. I asked him how long he had been waiting for me and he said about 15 min. Next time I'm claiming drugs.............


My last trip to PNG, I got explosives tested every airport I went through - both directions.

There's no way it's random, expecially when the security person told one of the crew to come through the gate after me...


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## Crimea_River (May 12, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> A few years ago I was flying from PG to Vancouver and went through security. My pockets were emptied and my luggage checked. As I went by the security guard I asked him, "What about a cavity check?" He looked confused and said, "Wut?" I said, "I really want one." He said, "Not on my watch buddy"



I didn't know the also performed dental services.

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## pbehn (May 12, 2020)

I was on a flight (Teesside to Amsterdam) Security took the pilots aftershave off him as it was more than 200cl. No one was sure how to take it since if he wanted to crash the plane he doesn't need any sort of device at all. They were the biggest bunch of pricks ever assembled in one airport. Threatened my daughter with not flying if she didn't remove her cap, before she had chance to remove the cap. Poor kid was terrified.


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## ThomasP (May 12, 2020)

re the face mask and its ability to prevent the spread of germs.

'Any sufficiently advanced technology will appear to be magic to a primitive.'

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2020)

pbehn said:


> They were the biggest bunch of pricks ever assembled in one airport.


 I have medications I have to take daily, and when I started with the airline it was never an issue, as flight crews by passed security. About the time I made Captain, they started sending us through with the passengers, and I got grilled (right in front of the passengers, no less) as to what those pills and liquids were, what diseases they treated, who prescribed them, how come I was flying if I was diseased, and finally how could I prove my medical waivers weren't counterfeit. All this from a bunch of pre-TSA minimum wage security twits. They wound up turning us over to Airport Police who called my company and told them to cancel the flight and send another crew to retrieve the plane, because this crew wasn't going anywhere. My FO and I sat there on hold until 9AM when the FAA Regional Offices opened and they could confirm we were legit. My FO got a thorough going over in the meantime, as she was 25, looked about 15, and didn't have a particularly respectful attitude toward these dweebs. These guys were convinced they'd caught a couple imposters. I'm with you, pbehn.
Cheers,
Wes


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## MiTasol (May 13, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Exactly how I feel about airport security, I just tell them I havnt a bomb or gun and they say "have a nice flight sir" and wave me through.



Yep and often the machines are turned down to ignore everything. My wife has metal in both hips, one shoulder and one ankle so should set the machines off every time. It is amazing how often they do not detect her metal inserts.


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## MiTasol (May 13, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> My last trip to PNG, I got explosives tested every airport I went through - both directions.
> 
> There's no way it's random, expecially when the security person told one of the crew to come through the gate after me...



Yes to that tho I think BNE and POM check about every third person some days.

One trip out of CNS in 2009 there were just three of us on a post maintenance flight and all company employees. We carried not only our baggage but also the aircraft's emergency kit. The [email protected]#$%^&*I(O)P_+ morons confiscated the knives and flares from the kit. We cancelled the flight, got another company to install the kit - complete with new knives and flares - and departed four hours late.


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## MiTasol (May 13, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I was on a flight (Teesside to Amsterdam) Security took the pilots aftershave off him as it was more than 200cl. No one was sure how to take it since if he wanted to crash the plane he doesn't need any sort of device at all. They were the biggest bunch of pricks ever assembled in one airport. Threatened my daughter with not flying if she didn't remove her cap, before she had chance to remove the cap. Poor kid was terrified.



Edinburgh is equally bad and Sydney (Aus) can be extremely obnoxious also - especially for transit passengers getting back on the same aircraft they flew in on.

I always hated going to HNL as every flight there from Australia I seemed to arrive just behind what seemed like 20 747s of Chinese tourists so the lines were very long, very slow, very noisy and most immigration stations were closed. 

Our best experience was just a few days after the liquids limit started when we flew out of SFO and during check in they discovered my wife had three bottles of lens cleaner for her glasses in her carry on. The guy got her to line them up and then said _touch one_. He binned that one and gave the other two back.

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I have medications I have to take daily, and when I started with the airline it was never an issue, as flight crews by passed security. About the time I made Captain, they started sending us through with the passengers, and I got grilled (right in front of the passengers, no less) as to what those pills and liquids were, what diseases they treated, who prescribed them, how come I was flying if I was diseased, and finally how could I prove my medical waivers weren't counterfeit. All this from a bunch of pre-TSA minimum wage security twits. They wound up turning us over to Airport Police who called my company and told them to cancel the flight and send another crew to retrieve the plane, because this crew wasn't going anywhere. My FO and I sat there on hold until 9AM when the FAA Regional Offices opened and they could confirm we were legit. My FO got a thorough going over in the meantime, as she was 25, looked about 15, and didn't have a particularly respectful attitude toward these dweebs. These guys were convinced they'd caught a couple imposters. I'm with you, pbehn.
> Cheers,
> Wes



Reminds me of a case donkeys years ago when I was still in uniform. I led a flight trials team, one member of whom was a highly experienced E-3 captain. It was the practice, for any overseas flights, that the service police would check bags prior to departure. My E-3 skipper gets in line and, like the rest of us, suffers the indignity of having a police corporal rummage through EVERYTHING. Conversation went something like this:

Corporal: "Aha!!!" (sensing he'd uncovered a heinous plot) "Sir, you can't take these nail clippers onboard." 

Captain: "Why not?"

Corporal: "You could use them as a weapon and take control of the plane."

Captain: "I already have control of the plane. I'm flying the bluddy thing."

Corporal: "But, Sir, you could steal the aircraft."

Captain: "Corporal, I have the opportunity to steal an aircraft every working day of my life. I just sign the form to fly and off I go."

Corporal: "Well, I'm sorry, Sir, but rules are rules and you can't take these with you."

Captain shakes head in disbelief and walks away.

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## GrauGeist (May 13, 2020)

The Surgeon General of the U.S. did not come into that position by watching YouTube videos and listening to Facebook Physicians.

In my case, I have had fist-hand experience with facemask starting with my time as an assistant to my step-dad, who was the chief entomologist/vector control for the United States Navy. His office was at NWS Seal Beach and he also covered NAWS China Lake and NAD Fallbrook as well as advising at MCAS El Toro, USMC Camp Pendleton and the USN complex San Diego.
So I had to qualify for respiratory hazard coverage, which included insecticides, herbicides and biological (along with a pile of other stuff).
In the private sector, I have experience with wildlamd fire suppression, automotive bodywork (polyester resin and lead) as well as paint (acrylic lacquer and enamels) as well as fabrication - all of which require specific and often specialized filtration for respiratory protection.

So I am not talking out my ass.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> In my case, I have had fist-hand experience with facemask starting with my time as an assistant to my step-dad, who was the chief entomologist/vector control for the United States Navy.





GrauGeist said:


> So I am not talking out my ass.


I (and I suspect, all of us) respect your experience. You're certainly no amateur. But I suggest this quirky virus requires an evolution away from the traditional mindset of self protection, especially since effectively protective masks are in short supply. We need to think of less than ideal masks as protecting others from us, and hope others behave accordingly. Every person is a potential vector and no one, no matter how "healthy" they are or appear to be is guaranteed to be non-infectious.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> My wife has metal in both hips, one shoulder and one ankle so should set the machines off every time.


I used to fly with a pilot who had been shot down three times flying Slicks in Vietnam. He had permanent shrapnel in his legs and titanium in his ankles, knees, and femur, and how he could light up the metal detector! We took delays and cancelled flights because the dorks wouldn't let him on the plane. Finally the company got the FAA to sign off on an x-ray he could carry around with him to show security folks he was legit. It had his x-ray image along with his Bronze Star, Purple Heart, and a waiver signed by the regional aeromedical examiner. Problem solved.
Cheers,
Wes


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## pbehn (May 13, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Reminds me of a case donkeys years ago when I was still in uniform. I led a flight trials team, one member of whom was a highly experienced E-3 captain. It was the practice, for any overseas flights, that the service police would check bags prior to departure. My E-3 skipper gets in line and, like the rest of us, suffers the indignity of having a police corporal rummage through EVERYTHING. Conversation went something like this:
> 
> Corporal: "Aha!!!" (sensing he'd uncovered a heinous plot) "Sir, you can't take these nail clippers onboard."
> 
> ...



That is basically what everyone was thinking. If security do have issues with the pilot then let me know what they are because in 30 minutes time he will be in control behind a locked door.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> The Surgeon General of the U.S. did not come into that position by watching YouTube videos and listening to Facebook Physicians.
> 
> In my case, I have had fist-hand experience with facemask starting with my time as an assistant to my step-dad, who was the chief entomologist/vector control for the United States Navy. His office was at NWS Seal Beach and he also covered NAWS China Lake and NAD Fallbrook as well as advising at MCAS El Toro, USMC Camp Pendleton and the USN complex San Diego.
> So I had to qualify for respiratory hazard coverage, which included insecticides, herbicides and biological (along with a pile of other stuff).
> ...



No one said you were talking out of your ass, just that you were cherry picking (Don’t worry we are all guilty of it) Same with the surgeon general. Is he highly qualified? Of course, but he also is there to push agenda. The agenda should be obvious to everyone at this point.

Over the years you should have learned that I have nothing but respect for you. That does not mean I will agree with you on everything. Your stance on this virus is one of those things. Keeping that in mind, that does not mean I would not bye you a beer any day of the week... 

But only if you are social distancing...

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## The Basket (May 13, 2020)

The advice getting in UK is contradictory so no idea what going on.

One minute told it's the plague and next minute off to work you go.

Okey dokey then.


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## pbehn (May 13, 2020)

Today in the house of commons, "Could the prime minister give a reason for these unexplained deaths" from the leader of the opposition.


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## rochie (May 13, 2020)

pbehn said:


> Today in the house of commons, "Could the prime minister give a reason for these unexplained deaths" from the leader of the opposition.


Doh !

Also big news is UK economy shrank by 2% worst drop since 2008 !
No shit Sherlock, government spending 8 billion a month just to support furloughed workers, never mind all the other financial aid going on, not like it was unexpected

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## fubar57 (May 13, 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/1918-pandemic-flu-coronavirus-1.5566524


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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2020)

Leadership: "Hey! Hey! You...."
Opposition: "Make hay! Make hay! While...."

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## Vincenzo (May 13, 2020)

Italy report, 13th May 5 pm CEST
cases 222,104, +888, deaths 31,106, +195, recovered 112,541, +3,502, active cases 78,457, -2,809, tests 2,735,628, +61,973
fatality rate 14%
mortality rate 516 per million
test rate 45.4 per thousand
positive rate 8.1%
total case rate 3,682 per million
active case rate 1,301 per million
test rate today 1,027 per million
positive rate today 1.4%
new case rate today 15 per million


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## stona (May 13, 2020)

I applied for and will receive my income support grant as a self employed person. It is equivalent to 80% of my monthly profit for three months, based on my last three years tax returns. I'm basically being paid to stay at home for three months, and the money is very welcome. According to HMR&C it will be transferred to my bank account within 6 days.

It's not all bad!

Cheers

Steve

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## fubar57 (May 13, 2020)

I received the Canadian version. Unfortunately they paid me for the time I was still working and now have to pay it back. I've finally got a number for how much I can keep but it'll have to wait until I get out of camp next week


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## Vincenzo (May 13, 2020)

on income support, also for the new "Reddito di emergenza" emergency income, i'm out, i've no income but i'm too rich...
however they give 600 euros to autonomous/freelance workers also if they income are not hit


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## at6 (May 13, 2020)

Mean while, Fresno makes national news because protesters act like third world idiots. I'm no big fan of the local lock down but I'm also 70 years old with an under lying heart condition which places me in the high risk group. Infections and deaths are still on the rise here in the Central Valley but there will always be some pee brains [that was no misspelling because they have pee for brains] who don't care who they may expose and kill.

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## TheMadPenguin (May 13, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> re the face mask and its ability to prevent the spread of germs.
> 
> 'Any sufficiently advanced technology will appear to be magic to a primitive.'


Counterpoint: If your "advanced technology" DOESN'T appear to be magic, it's not sufficiently advanced!

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## ThomasP (May 13, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 12
cases 12,913**, recovered XXXX, hospitalized 1,799, deaths 614**, tested 118,518*/**
fatality rate 4.8%
mortality rate 107.7 per million
test rate 20.8 per thousand*
<
<
Minnesota report, May 13
cases 12,917**, recovered 8,787, hospitalized 1,851, deaths 638**, tested 122,035*/**
fatality rate 4.9%
mortality rate 111.9 per million
test rate 21.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing. HOWEVER, from May 2 to May 11, the new hospitalization rate slowly increased from 118/day to 199/day.

NOTE: There was a significant change in how New Cases/Recovered Cases/Tested numbers are recorded. Because of this change, the numbers for May 12-13 are incomplete and somewhat non-representative relative to each other and to the numbers from previous dates.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

at6 said:


> there will always be some pee brains [that was no misspelling because they have pee for brains] who don't care who they may expose and kill.


Some of the younger generation around here gleefully refer to this pandemic as "the great boomer remover".
"They f_ _ked up this world for us to live in, and now they're using up and wearing out Social Security and Medicare so there won't be any for us when we need it. F_ _k'em! Hope they all die off!"


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## Stig1207 (May 14, 2020)

Comparisons are also being drawn to a war situation; we are under attack by an invisible enemy. However, if the we were under attack by a visible, physical enemy, young people would be sent out defend us, risking losing their lives some 70 or 80 years too early. 

That is a major difference to this situation, where every contingent is made to safeguard those who have lived 70 or 80+ years. 
I can understand if young people might feel some frustration.


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## The Basket (May 14, 2020)

I see that early days people were ok with it.

Now boredom has set in and the lockdown is getting less suppprt.

The downsides in mental health or domestic abuse or financial meltdown are starting to out way the benefits of lockdown which is mainly for the benefit of a small group of society.

Them plenty of conspiracy theories and all sorts going on plus the bizarre advice we reciveing from British Government which is contradictory in nature. 

So that leaves me in the position of not knowing anything and being bored at same time. And the Scottish Government is saying something else.

Fantastic.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2020)

How is the lock down only a benefit of a small group of society?

The purpose was to reduce the burden on the hospitals and health care services. Surely that is a benefit to all.

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## The Basket (May 14, 2020)

People buy lottery tickets which prove that the general population have no concept of probabilities.

Technically I have no reference point apart from the contradictory Government advice and the loons who either want armed insurrection or we should be isolated for years.

It's just a giant mess with no answer.

It would silly to have a lockdown for a month or 2 and then back to normal.

Either it is or it ain't and it looks as though the fear of the economy tanking will take precedence over health concerns


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## stona (May 14, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> on income support, also for the new "Reddito di emergenza" emergency income, i'm out, i've no income but i'm too rich...
> however they give 600 euros to autonomous/freelance workers also if they income are not hit



For the self employed in the UK the income support has been limited to a maximum of £7,500 for the first three months. Given that the sum we receive is based on 80% of profit over the last three years there will be some self employed who will hit that limit. Nonetheless it is a significant sum and is intended to keep you in business until you can begin trading again, not pay to keep your wife in a manner to which she is not accustomed!
Cheers
Steve


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## Vincenzo (May 14, 2020)

Italy report, 4th May 5 pm CEST
cases 223,096, + 992, deaths 31,368, +262, recovered 115,288, +2,747, active cases 76,440, -2,017, tests 2,807,504, +71,876
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 520 per million
test rate 46.5 per thousand
positive rate 7.9%
total case rate 3,699 per million
active case rate 1,267 per million
test rate today 1,192 per million
positive rate today 1.4%
new case rate today 16 per million


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## stona (May 14, 2020)

I just did a quick trawl through today's headlines, and, sure enough, the narrative is changing.

The scare stories are now notably absent. Those suggesting the vulnerability of young people are completely absent, probably due to considerable resistance to the planned re-opening of schools on June 1. We now have headlines about A&E (accident and emergency) attendance being at a record low and people dying due to postponed cancer treatments.

This is the UK, we have a free press, but to imagine that sections of it do not promote the government narrative would be naïve.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

The Basket said:


> It would silly to have a lockdown for a month or 2 and then back to normal.
> 
> Either it is or it ain't and it looks as though the fear of the economy tanking will take precedence over health concerns.


What we need is a new normal. This thing isn't going away anytime soon, and we'll never again be able to operate in the ways we've become used to.
It's time we all climbed out of the conceptual holes we've dug ourselves into, and start working to develop a new sustainable economy that can function long-term under the social restraints this virus (and others yet to come) will be imposing on us indefinitely.
The British surrendered at Yorktown to the strains of a then-popular tune: "The World Turned Upside Down", a sentiment we must learn to embrace in this time. There's no going back to life as we knew it; it's not sustainable in the new reality. All else is wishful thinking and wilful disregard of the facts. Get used to it.
Cheers,
Wes


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

Stig1207 said:


> That is a major difference to this situation, where every contingent is made to safeguard those who have lived 70 or 80+ years.
> I can understand if young people might feel some frustration.


And I sympathize with their perspective. My generation (boomers) has been the single most destructive demographic (economically, environmentally, socially, and morally) in the sorry history of mankind, and have earned the enmity sometimes displayed to us by younger folk.
If we as a species continue to insist on populating ourselves away from the dinner table, we're going to have to forgo some of the luxuries we've become accustomed to, such as a long and comfortable retirement, or a "safety net" to prevent the less fortunate from littering the street with unsightly corpses.

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## The Basket (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> What we need is a new normal. This thing isn't going away anytime soon, and we'll never again be able to operate in the ways we've become used to.
> It's time we all climbed out of the conceptual holes we've dug ourselves into, and start working to develop a new sustainable economy that can function long-term under the social restraints this virus (and others yet to come) will be imposing on us indefinitely.
> The British surrendered at Yorktown to the strains of a then-popular tune: "The World Turned Upside Down", a sentiment we must learn to embrace in this time. There's no going back to life as we knew it; it's not sustainable in the new reality. All else is wishful thinking and wilful disregard of the facts. Get used to it.
> Cheers,
> Wes



Well you want a new normal?

A Burger King drive thru opened up and the traffic jams were horrendous.

So much for common sense and logic.

Fools gotta fool.


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## Airframes (May 14, 2020)

I was slightly amused by an announcement here in the UK today.
Four months ago, the Government were advising "Use public transport, to reduce pollution. Leave the car at home, or if you can't use public transport, look at car sharing".
Today, it's "Avoid public transport, use your car " !


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2020)

The Basket said:


> Well you want a new normal?
> 
> A Burger King drive thru opened up and the traffic jams were horrendous.
> 
> ...



I’d question more your desire to eat at Burger King. Yuck. Fools gotta fool.

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## Shortround6 (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> If we as a species continue to insist on populating ourselves away from the dinner table, we're going to have to forgo some of the luxuries we've become accustomed to, such as a long and comfortable retirement, or a "safety net" to prevent the less fortunate from littering the street with unsightly corpses.



the thing is it should be done in a careful and planned manner, which is usually too much to ask for in many democracies. I am a retired Firefighter, I made my money from the tax payer.
I took the pay that was offered (often grudgingly) knowing that I probably could have made more in private industry, for the job security and the retirement package. 
Now we have people saying that those who are retired or about to retire (too late to change careers) should accept lower than promised or delayed retirements because the politicians could manage the retirement funds properly and it will be too much burden on the young folk. Guess what, If they can yank the promised (read contracted as in signed) retirement benefits from people who worked 20-40 years for them what makes the young people think the same group of bozos will keep their new promises.?
You want to change the social structure? fine, but do it slow enough that people have time to plan career changes or strategies. 

In America you get a major tax deduction for interest paid on a house mortgage, In Australia you don't (or didn't) so In America people take out 30 year mortgages and pay more to banks and try for the tax deduction. In Australia they pay the mortgage off as fast a possible (often a 15 year loan to begins with) so when retirement comes the house in much more likely to be paid off. Won't even go into the difference in health care except to say that in Australia everybody gets at least some sort of basic care. 

Everything has to fit together as a system. Changing just a few things can really upset the system.


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## The Basket (May 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’d question more your desire to ear at Burger King. Yuck. Fools gotta fool.


I never said I was there.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2020)

The Basket said:


> I never said I was there.



Ok, I question the people dumb enough to wait in a burger king drive thru traffic jam.

Fools gotta fool...

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## TheMadPenguin (May 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok, I question the people dumb enough to wait in a burger king drive thru traffic jam.
> 
> Fools gotta fool...



What gets me: People eat at BG/McD/DQ et amici because the cooking there is better than they do at home.

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## gumbyk (May 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok, I question the people dumb enough to wait in a burger king drive thru traffic jam.
> 
> Fools gotta fool...


Here, the company that owns BK went into receivership  meanwhile once they were able to trade again, the queues were ridiculous.

But, 7 weeks after we went into lockdown, we're into our 'new normal': Keep at least 1m away from people, and record where you go and when, and who you interact with.

We've had three consecutive days with no new cases, so fingers crossed...

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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> But seven weeks after we went into lockdown, we're into the 'new normal': Keep at least 1m away from people, record where you go and when, and who you interact with.
> 
> We've had three consecutive days with no new cases, so fingers crossed...


Now if the whole world could behave like that for a long enough period of time, maybe we could lick this thing once and for all. Fat chance!


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## gumbyk (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Now if the whole world could behave like that for a long enough period of time, maybe we could lick this thing once and for all. Fat chance!



I think its too late for some countries to have an effective lockdown. 7 weeks was starting to lose to goodwill of the public here, and the required length of lockdown in the US or UK would be months longer.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

Shortround6 said:


> the thing is it should be done in a careful and planned manner, which is usually too much to ask for in many democracies.


True. Part of the reason countries like South Korea and Germany have had relatively low impacts from this virus is because they have relatively more disciplined populations, more willing to accept the obvious facts, and less prone to ideological disputes and insurrectionist rhetoric about personal freedom.


Shortround6 said:


> Now we have people saying that those who are retired or about to retire (too late to change careers) should accept lower than promised or delayed retirements because the politicians couldn't manage the retirement funds properly and it will be too much burden on the young folk.


We're headed for a much less efficient society, one that can't afford the financial burdens of supporting non-productive populations. During the industrial revolution/gilded age when our society was at its most efficient and amassed the greatest portion of the industrial, technical, and financial capital it's been coasting on ever since, there was a much more utilitarian view of human life. People were as productive as they could be for as long as they could be, then died soon after, unless they had the financial resources to support retirement. This, and keeping the working class poverty stricken, freed up more resources to fuel economic growth.
Clearly this is not a desirable model, but it could be in our future if we don't get it right.
Cheers,
Wes

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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> and the required length of lockdown in the US or UK would be months longer.


You're a bit optimistic, I think. As long as we have defiant non-cooperators, aided and abetted from the highest level of government, lockdown will be cyclic and eternal. We're going to have to learn to live with it, and the US risks turning from a world leader into a world outcast.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You're a bit optimistic, I think. As long as we have defiant non-cooperators, aided and abetted from the highest level of government, lockdown will be cyclic and eternal. We're going to have to learn to live with it, and the US risks *turning from a world leader into a world outcast.*



Risk? We are well on our way in more ways than one.

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## gumbyk (May 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Risk? We are well on our way in more ways than one.


Well, I wasn't going to say it...

My comment about length of lockdown is _if_ you managed to get everyone to comply.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> My comment about length of lockdown is _if_ you managed to get everyone to comply.


In the land of the brave and the free? Surely you jest!


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Risk? We are well on our way in more ways than one.


Make
America
Gefahrlich
Again!

"ICAO designates US as "unsafe" for international air travel, and prohibits member countries from providing air service there. US carriers denied international operations due to Coronavirus risk."

"Protestors show up at anti-lockdown rallies in tactical gear and carrying assault rifles."


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## gumbyk (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> In the land of the brave and the free? Surely you jest!


I think your idea of 'free' and the rest of the world's idea of free is somewhat different...


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I think your idea of 'free' and the rest of the world's idea of free is somewhat different...


Yes, the rest of the world has a more responsible interpretation of the word than our vocal headline makers do!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2020)

Ok gents, lets reel it back in.


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## at6 (May 14, 2020)

There is a 5 month old infant with Covid 19 here in the valley but is recovering from it at home. Just proves that absolutely no one is safe.


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## nuuumannn (May 14, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Yes, the rest of the world has a more responsible interpretation of the word than our vocal headline makers do!



I think the idea is the same, but its the consequences of our responses to what we consider our freedoms as individuals that is open to question. We don't seem to recognise that everything has consequences.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> its the consequences of our responses to what we consider our freedoms as individuals that is open to question. We don't seem to recognise that everything has consequences.


"To hell with the consequences! They're part of the cost of freedom. Not my problem! Get outta my face!"
Seems to be the way too many people think.

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## nuuumannn (May 15, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> They're part of the cost of freedom.



Ooo there's that turn of phrase, "The Price of Freedom" - it excuses so much hypocracy and ignorance.

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## at6 (May 15, 2020)

The price of freedom has been paid by those on the frontlines either in combat during war or those who died from treating those with the virus.. As for the rest of them, they can suck a long hairy fat one . If any one is offended by my feelings, then suck it with them. I pray that no one in my family or any of my friends become infected since I realize all too well what this [email protected] virus will mean. This thing doesn't give a sh!t what your politics or philosophy is, it will kill all the same with no exceptions. Politics be d&mned since I would like to live long enough to give my "Bark Angels" a good life while I can and would like to out live them so that they can be properly attended to after they pass.


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## at6 (May 15, 2020)

By the way. Too hell with your "freedom". What the hell about our lives?"


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## ThomasP (May 15, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 14
cases 13,435**, recovered 9,136, hospitalized 1,915, deaths 663**/**, tested 128,752*/**
fatality rate 5.3%
mortality rate 116.3 per million
test rate 22.6 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing.


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## at6 (May 15, 2020)

I wish that testing would stop the spread but regrettably it won't. We only get numbers with no hopeful results. I like living and this sh!t may yet get many of us including my a$$.


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## stona (May 15, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> What we need is a new normal. This thing isn't going away anytime soon, and we'll never again be able to operate in the ways we've become used to.



I don't agree with this, not in the long term.

Things went back to normal after the Spanish flu pandemic, but it did take a couple of years. In the absence of a vaccine (and we have never yet developed a close to 100% effective vaccine against a coronavirus, which means eradication is a very remote possibility) this virus will remain with us. The pandemic will peter out in the same way that Spanish flu did. People do not want to hear this, but the mechanism is simple. Herd immunity, something certain governments were castigated for even mentioning, will become established in populations. This does not eradicate a virus, it simply limits the rate of infection. People will still contract and die of the disease, just as they do from flu every year, but _epidemics will be prevented by immunity in a sufficiently high proportion of a given population._ That is pretty much a definition of herd immunity, something so often misrepresented and misunderstood; it does not mean the eradication of the disease. In the mean time a lot more people will die, the number was estimated at 50 million worldwide in the Spanish flu pandemic. This immunity can only be acquired in two ways; naturally, by a high enough percentage of a population recovering from infection; artificially, by mass vaccination with an effective enough vaccine. Social distancing and other measures simply manage the rate of infection and avoid the sort of scenes we saw in northern Italy earlier this year. The slowed rate of infection (and hospitalisations and deaths) will be extended over a much longer time, but that time will eventually come to an end. I wouldn't bank on it being before late 2022.

The reason this message is not being promoted is political, not medical.

This poses serious problems for nations that did enforce rigorous lock downs and isolation. They will be the ones with vulnerable populations. Hardly anyone in the country has been infected, the latest estimate for Stockholm County, Sweden, is 35% of the population infected. The Swedes are well ahead of that particular curve. If a vaccine is not developed countries like NZ have very limited options. For example, can N Z realistically quarantine every visitor for 14-21 days for the next several years? It only needs one infected person to arrive in their vulnerable population to set of another epidemic.

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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2020)

A rather sobering statistic from the UK yesterday. Of all the people who died in hospitals due to COVID-19, some 25% had diabetes. As someone who lives with that chronic condition (and not from any lifestyle decisions I made), it certainly makes me nervous about the future as rules get relaxed. My big fear is that people will stop doing the basic things that help slow the spread of this (and any other) virus. 

My workplace is spread across a large number of buildings, and hand-washing stations have been set up for people to use before they enter buildings and/or engage with support staff. Yesterday, I walked to one of the buildings and duly washed my hands for the recommended 20 seconds (twice through Happy Birthday). In that time 2 other people "washed" and dried their hands and went into the building ahead of me. 

If I'm stupid then I deserve to be subject to the consequences of my actions...but it makes me really angry that my life is being threatened because people can't wash their bluddy hands properly or refuse to wear masks. Sorry for the rant but I'm only just north of 50, I'm a contributing member of society, and I want the opportunity to see my kids marry and start raising their own families. For pity's sake people, just be considerate of others and do your bit to protect them from this virus.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2020)

at6 said:


> By the way. Too hell with your "freedom". What the hell about our lives?"


"That's your lookout, buddy not mine!"


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## rochie (May 15, 2020)

To complicate matters sky news are reporting that london is registering 24 new cases of infection per day.
yet the north east (where i live) is reporting around 4000 cases daily !
Middlesbrough, a couple of miles away from my house is a national hotspot and we see lots of local reports of large groups ignoring government advice.

the local council in Middlesbrough are keeping parks etc closed against government advice, probably because they can see the numptys cant be trusted to help keep us all safe


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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2020)

stona said:


> People do not want to hear this, but the mechanism is simple. Herd immunity,


That's great, IF it works on this virus. Despite the hoopla, it's not a proven fact that previous infection confers immunity against this virus, and it seems to be able to mutate pretty frequently, perhaps outstripping the pace of vaccines and acquired immunity to keep up with ever newer strains. There's definitely not enough certainty in any of this to be basing public policy on.

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## cherry blossom (May 15, 2020)

Coming back to one of the minor inconveniences of this crisis, I found an interesting page online mentioning similar problems from 1942 The Infamous Toilet Paper Letter.

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## stona (May 15, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> That's great, IF it works on this virus. Despite the hoopla, it's not a proven fact that previous infection confers immunity against this virus, and it seems to be able to mutate pretty frequently, perhaps outstripping the pace of vaccines and acquired immunity to keep up with ever newer strains. There's definitely not enough certainty in any of this to be basing public policy on.



Antibodies do confer immunity. The extent of that immunity and length, nobody knows, yet. They are not necessarily strain specific, that's not how our immune system works. We can think of it working on a 'best fit' principle.

This is a coronavirus and it is not an exceptional virus. _The problem is not that it is contagious, or that it is particularly lethal, it is that it is new. _We have not developed our biological responses to it and we still have a lot to learn about it.

We are going to have to live with it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2020)

stona said:


> I don't agree with this, not in the long term.
> 
> Things went back to normal after the Spanish flu pandemic, but it did take a couple of years. In the absence of a vaccine (and we have never yet developed a close to 100% effective vaccine against a coronavirus, which means eradication is a very remote possibility) this virus will remain with us. The pandemic will peter out in the same way that Spanish flu did. People do not want to hear this, but the mechanism is simple. Herd immunity, something certain governments were castigated for even mentioning, will become established in populations. This does not eradicate a virus, it simply limits the rate of infection. People will still contract and die of the disease, just as they do from flu every year, but _epidemics will be prevented by immunity in a sufficiently high proportion of a given population._ That is pretty much a definition of herd immunity, something so often misrepresented and misunderstood; it does not mean the eradication of the disease. In the mean time a lot more people will die, the number was estimated at 50 million worldwide in the Spanish flu pandemic. This immunity can only be acquired in two ways; naturally, by a high enough percentage of a population recovering from infection; artificially, by mass vaccination with an effective enough vaccine. Social distancing and other measures simply manage the rate of infection and avoid the sort of scenes we saw in northern Italy earlier this year. The slowed rate of infection (and hospitalisations and deaths) will be extended over a much longer time, but that time will eventually come to an end. I wouldn't bank on it being before late 2022.
> 
> ...



Last I heard, MEDICAL EXPERTS not POLITICAL EXPERTS are saying that immunity is not guaranteed, or enough to ensure herd immunity. They are not sure yet that you get any form of immunity in a capacity to do herd immunity. More testing is required.

Political control theories are nothing more than tin foil hattery.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2020)

Now, one final time, let’s ALL (me included) knock it off with the politics.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2020)

I have an antibody test appointment today. If it comes back positive, which I expect it will, then my wife will get tested.


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## pbehn (May 15, 2020)

rochie said:


> To complicate matters sky news are reporting that london is registering 24 new cases of infection per day.
> yet the north east (where i live) is reporting around 4000 cases daily !
> Middlesbrough, a couple of miles away from my house is a national hotspot and we see lots of local reports of large groups ignoring government advice.
> 
> the local council in Middlesbrough are keeping parks etc closed against government advice, probably because they can see the numptys cant be trusted to help keep us all safe


I saw that, the figures include Yorkshire, but TBH I don't believe them.


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## rochie (May 15, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I saw that, the figures include Yorkshire, but TBH I don't believe them.


Yes, sorry north east and Yorkshire !


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## Vincenzo (May 15, 2020)

Italy report, 15th May 5 pm cest
cases 223,885, +789, deaths 31,610, +242, recovered 120,205, +4,907, active cases 72,070, -4,370, tests 2,875,680, +68,176
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 524 per million
test rate 47.7 per thousand
positive rate 7.8% 
test rate today 1,130 per million
positive rate today 1.2%
new case rate today 13 per million


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## pgeno71 (May 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Last I heard, MEDICAL EXPERTS not POLITICAL EXPERTS are saying that immunity is not guaranteed, or enough to ensure herd immunity. They are not sure yet that you get any form of immunity in a capacity to do herd immunity. More testing is required.
> 
> Political control theories are nothing more than tin foil hattery.




The "MEDICAL EXPERTS" in Sweden disagree. I know there needs to be more testing and study, but herd immunity is not a political invention, it is a basic biological concept. And, I am sure there are epidemiologist and doctors in the US and elsewhere that support a herd immunity approach. But, like the climatologists that disagree with global warming, they probably are refraining from speaking for fear of being smeared as "murderers" or worse. What stona was explaining is pretty much straight out of a science textbook, not a political handbook. What the press & social media have effectively done surrounding the epidemic is politicized medical discourse to support the stay-at-home THEORY. Two doctors from California had videos removed from Facebook for espousing the herd immunity theory. Medical experts have been wrong about this epidemic or have changed their minds about different aspects of it from death totals, including mitigation, to a million in the US alone to the role of masks, and now, they may be proven wrong about when the virus arrived. Just saw a news report that French doctors now believe that patients who died in November were infected with CoVid-19. I know science changes with new evidence and information, which means it is not infallible. I remember when Pluto was a planet, until they changed the definition.


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## pgeno71 (May 15, 2020)

Watched the news earlier and they reported that pot sales in Michigan are booming and you can't get a haircut legally. The end result for everyone here....







The dude abides

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> The "MEDICAL EXPERTS" in Sweden disagree. I know there needs to be more testing and study, but herd immunity is not a political invention, it is a basic biological concept. And, I am sure there are epidemiologist and doctors in the US and elsewhere that support a herd immunity approach. But, like the climatologists that disagree with global warming, they probably are refraining from speaking for fear of being smeared as "murderers" or worse. What stona was explaining is pretty much straight out of a science textbook, not a political handbook. What the press & social media have effectively done surrounding the epidemic is politicized medical discourse to support the stay-at-home THEORY. Two doctors from California had videos removed from Facebook for espousing the herd immunity theory. Medical experts have been wrong about this epidemic or have changed their minds about different aspects of it from death totals, including mitigation, to a million in the US alone to the role of masks, and now, they may be proven wrong about when the virus arrived. Just saw a news report that French doctors now believe that patients who died in November were infected with CoVid-19. I know science changes with new evidence and information, which means it is not infallible. I remember when Pluto was a planet, until they changed the definition.



Again, MEDICAL EXPERTS have said that more testing needs to be done before we can say herd immunity works. This is a new virus, and they do not know. Even Swedish officials have stated that only 25% of the population has antibodies, and that immunity may be too short lived to cause herd immunity. Some people who become infected are showing negative for antibodies.

And I am well aware how science works. My wife happens to be a scientist. I’m not a tin foil hatter or someone who follows the flavor of the month because their chosen leader in DC tells them what to think, thank you very much.


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## pgeno71 (May 15, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Again, MEDICAL EXPERTS have said that more testing needs to be done before we can say herd immunity works. This is a new virus, and they do not know. Even Swedish officials have stated that only 25% of the population has antibodies, and that immunity may be too short lived to cause herd immunity. Some people who become infected are showing negative for antibodies.
> 
> And I am well aware how science works. My wife happens to be a scientist. I’m not a tin foil hatter or someone who follows the flavor of the month because their chosen leader in DC tells them what to think, thank you very much.



I never accused you of being a conspiracy nut or following the flavor of the month, nor did I mean to imply it. I am sorry if you got that impression. As you correctly point out this is a new virus that we know little about, I was only postulating that we don't fully know what information is actually correct or what are/will be the best practices. I am not saying that stay-at-home is wrong because it would make a hypocrit because that is what I've been doing for two months. My post was a response to what I perceived as people piling on stona for expressing a scientific theory that I have seen real doctors espouse, with my own eyes, during this pandemic. 

Also, as for antibody tests, I don't know about you, but my governor told me they can't be trusted, and she bases everything she says and does on science.


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## MIflyer (May 15, 2020)

There seems to be a lot of confusion about wearing of masks in response to the Wuflu Pandemic. The attached illustration shows the proper way to wear a mask.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I never accused you of being a conspiracy nut or following the flavor of the month, nor did I mean to imply it. I am sorry if you got that impression. As you correctly point out this is a new virus that we know little about, I was only postulating that we don't fully know what information is actually correct or what are/will be the best practices. I am not saying that stay-at-home is wrong because it would make a hypocrit because that is what I've been doing for two months. My post was a response to what I perceived as people piling on stona for expressing a scientific theory that I have seen real doctors espouse, with my own eyes, during this pandemic.
> 
> Also, as for antibody tests, I don't know about you, but my governor told me they can't be trusted, and she bases everything she says and does on science.



I was not pilling on Stona, I was merely pointing out that the idea that herd immunity will work is not known. Everything he says is about a government media conspiracy to control the population. You can chalk that up there with Chemtrails. I have nothing but respect for Stona, and consider him a valuable member of our family, but a spade is a spade...

As for the antibody test I am merely getting it because it may confirm the illness I had for 2 weeks in April. The illness I could not get tested for because all those tests we were telling everyone were available, actually weren't. Is it a 100%, of course not, but my company paid so I don’t care.


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## pbehn (May 15, 2020)

rochie said:


> Yes, sorry north east and Yorkshire !


North of Watford so who cares? The North east can randomly include or exclude everyone who isn't from London or Scotland as far as I can see, have to check every time I see the name and a "stat" attached.

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## ThomasP (May 16, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 15
cases 14,240**, recovered 9,503, hospitalized 1,985, deaths 683**/**, tested 134,669*/**
fatality rate 4.8%
mortality rate 119.8 per million
test rate 23.6 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing.


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## stona (May 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Last I heard, MEDICAL EXPERTS not POLITICAL EXPERTS are saying that immunity is not guaranteed, or enough to ensure herd immunity. They are not sure yet that you get any form of immunity in a capacity to do herd immunity. More testing is required.
> 
> Political control theories are nothing more than tin foil hattery.



Herd immunity is a long established factor in limiting the spread of contagious diseases.

You can calculate the proportion needed to achieve herd immunity if you know the basic reproduction number, Rₒ. This is the average number of people that one infected person will infect, given a completely susceptible population. 

The equation is: 

H % = (1-1/Rₒ) x 100 

It is estimated that Rₒ is about 3 for Sars-CoV-2 for developed countries, with no measures taken in mitigation. Most developed countries are managing to keep this number at about 1 or less, but at almost incalculable cost. If we take the value as 3, this gives the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity to be 66.7%. That is why we have heard the figure of 70% bandied about by epidemiologists.

It is not about political control. It is about the unwillingness of democratically elected politicians to say things that are likely to be unpopular vote losers.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2020)

stona said:


> Herd immunity is a long established factor in limiting the spread of contagious diseases.
> 
> You can calculate the proportion needed to achieve herd immunity if you know the basic reproduction number, Rₒ. This is the average number of people that one infected person will infect, given a completely susceptible population.
> 
> ...



Again, MEDICAL EXPERTS and Scientists are saying that herd immunity is not guaranteed because the length of immunity is possibly very short lived with this novel coronavirus. They quite simply do not know for this virus.

Science is not absolute. What worked before, may not be possible now. No one is saying herd immunity is not possible, but before you risk getting 65% of the population sick killing off lots of people in the process you might what to do more research and find out if it does. That is what the majority of experts are saying.

It’s not about fricken control, its about doing things right and minimizing the burden on the hospitals.


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## Vincenzo (May 16, 2020)

Italy report, 16th May 5 pm cest
cases 224,760, +875, deaths 31,763, +153, recovered 122,810, +2,605, active cases 70,187, -1,883, tests 2,944,859, +69,179
fatality rate 14.1%
mortality rate 527 per million
test rate 48.8 per thousand
positive rate 7.6%
test rate today 1,147 per million
positive rate today 1.3%
new case rate today 15 per million


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## Dinger (May 16, 2020)

Phewww! - what a relief! - I bet this had you all awake at nights worrying! - Wondering what gender the French would make "Covid"????

Who would have guessed feminine! - I'd have put my money on "le Covid"! - But "La Covid" wins out!

Protectors of the French language says 'Covid' takes a feminine article - CNN


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## at6 (May 16, 2020)

Now people with children have to worry about a new Covid related problem. An illness similar to Kawasaki has even been detected locally. Fortunately the child survived but tested positive for Covid anti-bodies.


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## TheMadPenguin (May 16, 2020)

stona said:


> It is not about political control. It is about the unwillingness of democratically elected politicians to say things that are likely to be unpopular vote losers.


or donation losers, or media fame losers...

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## Vincenzo (May 16, 2020)

Dinger said:


> Phewww! - what a relief! - I bet this had you all awake at nights worrying! - Wondering what gender the French would make "Covid"????
> 
> Who would have guessed feminine! - I'd have put my money on "le Covid"! - But "La Covid" wins out!
> 
> Protectors of the French language says 'Covid' takes a feminine article - CNN



because the Corona Virus Diseade is "une maladie" "maladie" the french word for disease is feminine as the italian word "malattia" , or the spanish "enfermedad" or the portugues "doenca" (i've not the right keyboard), my romanian is nil so IDK if is feminine also in this neo-latin language

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## rochie (May 16, 2020)

Well the idiots were out in force in London today !

Coronavirus: Arrests in Hyde Park as lockdown protesters denounce 'fake' virus


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## TheMadPenguin (May 16, 2020)

Point of sorrow: either I'm really really low on brain fluid, or the closure/lockdowns should have been done by county, not by state (speaking of the US). Dade/Miami lockdown? Yes. Those partying idiots should have been spanked naked and sent home glow-butt. Here in Bay/Panama City, the beach density is low enough that 6 feet was minimum clearance between family gatherings before CCV. Mexico Beach (the city) was ground zero for Hurricane Michael; before the storm the clearance was more like 12 feet between family gatherings. We didn't profit from a beach closure. Miami did. I'm not sure any state (Rhode Island maybe) is so homogeneous that a one-size-fits-all actually fits all. The Press, the Politicians, and The Money are all concentrated in cities. Maybe that's why state-wide closure/lockdown was implemented, why The Press buys in, and why outsiders are seriously riled about it all.


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## pgeno71 (May 16, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Point of sorrow: either I'm really really low on brain fluid, or the closure/lockdowns should have been done by county, not by state (speaking of the US). Dade/Miami lockdown? Yes. Those partying idiots should have been spanked naked and sent home glow-butt. Here in Bay/Panama City, the beach density is low enough that 6 feet was minimum clearance between family gatherings before CCV. Mexico Beach (the city) was ground zero for Hurricane Michael; before the storm the clearance was more like 12 feet between family gatherings. We didn't profit from a beach closure. Miami did. I'm not sure any state (Rhode Island maybe) is so homogeneous that a one-size-fits-all actually fits all. The Press, the Politicians, and The Money are all concentrated in cities. Maybe that's why state-wide closure/lockdown was implemented, why The Press buys in, and why outsiders are seriously riled about it all.



I think your ok on brain fluid. Part of the problem was the panic when they believed there were going to be a million deaths in the US even with mitigation policies.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2020)

Even if Herd Immunity works with Covid-19, lets put it into perspective. It’s John Hopkins, but then again maybe they are part of the conspiracy too...

Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception


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## Zipper730 (May 16, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Even if Herd Immunity works with Covid-19, lets put it into perspective. It’s John Hopkins, but then again maybe they are part of the conspiracy too...
> 
> Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception


The numbers work out to 15-21% of people in NYC affected (8.4 million), with 17500 (as of the date of the publication) died, you have a current running mortality rate around 0.992% to 1.389% not factoring potential non-counted cases. That figure seems to be around the same as the numbers that Korea came up with early on.

If I did my math remotely right, to run through 231,000,000 people with even that mortality rate figure, you'll lose something around 2.3 to 3.2 million, not half a million to reach that 70% figure. Since the virus mutates at a decent clip, herd immunity might not be guaranteed. The cold mutates so often that even if we are immune to one strain, so many others exist to create trouble.


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## Zipper730 (May 16, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Watched the news earlier and they reported that pot sales in Michigan are booming and you can't get a haircut legally. The end result for everyone here....
> 
> View attachment 581524


My hair's getting a little longer than I'm used to, though I'm not quite that far yet. That said, I had considered just shaving it off.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 17, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> My hair's getting a little longer than I'm used to, though I'm not quite that far yet. That said, I had considered just shaving it off.


Mine's way past shaving. I'm feeling like a shaggy dog. Anybody got some flea powder......or better yet, a BrushHog?


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## XBe02Drvr (May 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> The Press, The Politicians and The Money are all concentrated in cities. Maybe that's why state-wide closure/lockdown was implemented, why The Press buys in, and why outsiders are seriously riled about it all.


If you're going to lockdown the cities and let the countryside run free, you'll have to freeze all travel between them or defeat your whole purpose. Part of the reason my state has such a low infection rate, in addition to our thin population, is that casual interstate travel results in a 14 day quarantine. Professional border crossers such as FedEx, UPS, fuel tankers, etc are monitored closely with wellness checks and where indicated, Covid testing. Out of state plates on the highway attract unsolicited attention.
My Massachusetts cousins set out today to come up and open up camp for the summer. They stopped (maskless) at the welcome station on the Interstate for a snack and were told if they were to continue into VT to expect to stay in quarantine for two weeks before interacting with the locals. Meanwhile, an officer took a photo of their vehicle and plates for the record. Wisely, they turned around and went home.
Cheers,
Wes


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## XBe02Drvr (May 17, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> because the Corona Virus Diseade is "une maladie" "maladie" the french word for disease is feminine


My irrepressible next door neighbor in high school days grew up in a French farming village and married a GI during WWII. She tutored me in French and said the true meaning of "la maladie" was the ferocious bout of PMS she suffered monthly. "Les hommes ne comprenez pas! C'est l'enfer!!"
Cheers,
Wes


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## pgeno71 (May 17, 2020)

I am not questioning or challenging anyone's math, but a problem with all of this is that we don't have accurate numbers and may not have for some time. We don't really know how many people have died because doctors are looking back at older cases and finding more Covid fatalities. Also, heath officials are struggling to account for the excess death that has occurred in places since January. If the French doctors are right, they had patients die from the virus in November, which means the pathogen could have been around a lot longer than previously thought. We don't know how many people are/were infected either. I have heard the 80% figure bantered about for people that will show mild or no symptoms. Does that mean that 1.46 million confirmed cases is actually over 5 million people infected? What does that mean for the mortality rate? I don't know and I don't claim to know the answers, I'm just putting it out there as food for thought.

Also, I have seen a lot of estimates for some aspects of the pandemic, but I have not seen any estimates that identify the total number of infected people in the US. If any one has seen or knows that number, could you please share it with us.


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## pgeno71 (May 17, 2020)

A quick not on my 5 million figure from my previous post is based on an assumption that a person with mild or no systems would not seek to be tested or go to the hospital to be diagnosed. Sorry I wasn't clearer earlier.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 17, 2020)

stona said:


> Herd immunity is a long established factor in limiting the spread of contagious diseases.


True, but it's predicated on the effect of individual acquired immunity functioning en masse. Individual acquired immunity is not an established fact with this virus, at least not on a universal level, as with the more "traditional" contagions. Not a wise thing to base policy on.....yet.

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## stona (May 17, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> True, but it's predicated on the effect of individual acquired immunity functioning en masse. Individual acquired immunity is not an established fact with this virus, at least not on a universal level, as with the more "traditional" contagions. Not a wise thing to base policy on.....yet.



This is not what the scientists are saying. Antibodies confer immunity. This is true for any virus. _It is why we have survived as a species on this planet, on which we have co-evolved with other life forms which are pathogenic._

What the current science is saying is that they do not yet know how effective or for how long this immunity will last. This is being interpreted in a scare mongering and sensationalist press as "infection does not confer immunity", something which would make this particular coronavirus absolutely unique among all other viruses, and other pathogens which the human species has encountered since it's immune system started to evolve. 

The first story came from S. Korea, when the press jumped on some apparent cases of re-infection or re-activation of the virus in some individuals. This was subsequently found to be due to errors in testing, as was also the case in similarly reported cases in the UK. Errors in testing have been prevalent; a test regarded as being very close to 100% accurate was only released last week.


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## ThomasP (May 17, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 16
cases 14,969**, recovered 10,271, hospitalized 2,039, deaths 700, tested 143,281*/**
fatality rate 4.7%
mortality rate 122.8 per million
test rate 25.1 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test has just passed 5,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however our rate of spread (reflected by the 'curve') now appears to be increasing again. In theory this is at least partly (largely?) due to the increased rate of testing.


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## at6 (May 17, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> My hair's getting a little longer than I'm used to, though I'm not quite that far yet. That said, I had considered just shaving it off.


You Hippie!

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## at6 (May 17, 2020)

The problem with trying to figure out whether or immunity will protect those who've had it is that there has never been a virus like this one.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 17, 2020)

at6 said:


> The problem with trying to figure out whether or immunity will protect those who've had it is that there has never been a virus like this one.


That's pretty much the case with any "new" virus; we have to learn its quirks and details before we know how to intelligently confront it. Some follow somewhat predictable patterns and fortunately are countered by well coordinated and supplied research, medical, and public policy initiatives. Others are more enigmatic and take longer to figure out, especially if they encounter undersupplied, poorly managed, ideologically contentious efforts to combat them.
Which of these scenarios do we see around us?
Cheers,
Wes


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## Glider (May 17, 2020)

There was some good news in the last week. On Friday the number of new cases in London was 24. How long it will stay at that level is a different question, but its a glimmer of light

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## stona (May 17, 2020)

at6 said:


> The problem with trying to figure out whether or immunity will protect those who've had it is that there has never been a virus like this one.



Yes there has. It is one of a large family of viruses. Of the hundreds known, there are at least seven that are known to infect and cause disease in humans.

As I said before, the problem is that this one is new and unfamiliar. Developments in efforts to counter the virus and the disease it causes are therefore on going. 

For example, specialists at Royal Brompton Hospital’s severe respiratory failure service established the clearest link yet between Covid-19 and blood clotting in the small vessels of the lungs by using hi-tech dual energy CT scans to take images of lung function in their most serious patients. All of those tested suffered a lack of blood flow, suggesting such clotting. This partly explains why some patients are dying of lung failure through lack of oxygen in the blood. Prof Openshaw, a specialist in experimental medicine at Imperial and honorary physician at St Mary's hospital, said: "This intravascular clotting is a really nasty twist that we haven't seen before with many other viruses". Scientists are usually careful with their words (unlike the press and politicians) and he said "many other viruses"; but it is not unique, just unusual and newly discovered. Incidentally, this also offers hope that blood thinning drugs might help seriously ill patients. It will probably work better than shoving a light up your arse and drinking disinfectant.


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## Glider (May 17, 2020)

stona said:


> . Scientists are usually careful with their words (unlike the press and politicians) and he said "many other viruses"; but it is not unique, just unusual and newly discovered. Incidentally, this also offers hope that blood thinning drugs might help seriously ill patients. It will probably work better than shoving a light up your arse and drinking disinfectant.


Don't tell Trump that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2020)

stona said:


> This is not what the scientists are saying. Antibodies confer immunity. This is true for any virus. _It is why we have survived as a species on this planet, on which we have co-evolved with other life forms which are pathogenic._
> 
> What the current science is saying is that they do not yet know how effective or for how long this immunity will last. This is being interpreted in a scare mongering and sensationalist press as "infection does not confer immunity", something which would make this particular coronavirus absolutely unique among all other viruses, and other pathogens which the human species has encountered since it's immune system started to evolve.
> 
> The first story came from S. Korea, when the press jumped on some apparent cases of re-infection or re-activation of the virus in some individuals. This was subsequently found to be due to errors in testing, as was also the case in similarly reported cases in the UK. Errors in testing have been prevalent; a test regarded as being very close to 100% accurate was only released last week.



More of the scare tactic non-sense. It is only scare tactics to people who want it to be that. The media sensationalizes every thing, but knock it off with the control conspiracy nonsense. Sorry, Stona, I think you are looking too much into this my friend.

They have stating that immunity is likely, but unknown. Current studies show it to be very short lived as well. 4 to 5 months only, and whether it is enough for herd immunity, or two fight off a second bout.

What doctors and virologists are saying is that they simply do not know with this virus. Their data knowledge is changing every day.

_” Ultimately, researchers are still uncertain about what level of long-term immune memory is sufficient to protect against future coronavirus infection, and how long it takes for the immune system to drop below that level. It's not even clear whether someone with immunity could spread the coronavirus to others while fighting off a second infection, Vabret and Samstein said. If the immune response were strong enough to crush the virus quickly, the person probably wouldn't transmit it further, they said. ”_

After recovering from COVID-19, are you immune? | Live Science


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## Vincenzo (May 17, 2020)

Italy report, 17th May 5 pm cest
cases 225,435, +675, deaths 31,908, +145, recovered 125,176, +2,366, active cases 68,351, -1,836, tests 3,004,960, +60,101
fatality rate 14.2%
mortality rate 529 per million
test rate 49.8 per thousand
positive rate 7.5%
test rate today 996 per million
positive rate today 1.1%
new case rate today 11 per million

From now i will report weekly on Sunday, unless unexpected


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## at6 (May 17, 2020)

stona said:


> It will probably work better than shoving a light up your arse and drinking disinfectant.


Insertion of the light was difficult but so very warm later. The disinfectant tasted like a bit bleach with a slight hint of Hand sanitizer.


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## Gnomey (May 17, 2020)

We don’t know if herd immunity will work yet as we don’t know if one infection provides you with immunity for future infections. This is similar to the common flu. There have been documented cases of re-infection weeks after index infection. It’s also thought to be a fast involving virus which doesn’t help the herd immunity.

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## TheMadPenguin (May 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Even if Herd Immunity works with Covid-19, lets put it into perspective. It’s John Hopkins, but then again maybe they are part of the conspiracy too...
> 
> Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception


N.B. they (John Hopkins) continue to list China as having gone "flat-line" in new cases back in Feb... so they aren't validity-checking the data.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> N.B. they (John Hopkins) continue to list China as having gone "flat-line" in new cases back in Feb... so they aren't validity-checking the data.



Care to explain?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> We don’t know if herd immunity will work yet as we don’t know if one infection provides you with immunity for future infections. This is similar to the common flu. There have been documented cases of re-infection weeks after index infection. It’s also thought to be a fast involving virus which doesn’t help the herd immunity.



I know you are a medical expert, but can you please not contribute to the scare tactics with this nonsense.



just kidding...


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## TheMadPenguin (May 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Care to explain?


COVID-19 Map
Click on each Country name on the left side. On the lower right, there's a graph of the numbers reported in that country over the last few months. Note that most graphs form a curve which rises rather steeply.
A few have a negative second derivative (cases climbing but rate slowing).
Only China appears to have a zero (or about zero) first derivative.
Perhaps I'm alone and foolish in being flat-out incredulous of China's claim of no (or near no) new cases since early March. I rather doubt that. Make your own conclusions, and make them known if you will.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> COVID-19 Map
> Click on each Country name on the left side. On the lower right, there's a graph of the numbers reported in that country over the last few months. Note that most graphs form a curve which rises rather steeply.
> A few have a negative second derivative (cases climbing but rate slowing).
> Only China appears to have a zero (or about zero) first derivative.
> Perhaps I'm alone and foolish in being flat-out incredulous of China's claim of no (or near no) new cases since early March. I rather doubt that. Make your own conclusions, and make them known if you will.



You are looking for something nefarious on the part of John Hopkins when there is nothing there.

They can only post what China reports. That’s not the fault of John Hopkins. They are only reporting the numbers given to them. China’s claimed numbers have been very low for weeks. It does not matter what your source is. Yesterday, China reported 6 total new cases, and 1 new death. Everyone knows that China’s numbers are not accurate or truthful. Everyone is reporting the same numbers as John Hopkins because that is what is being reported.

But what is John Hopkins supposed to do, and how is John Hopkins at fault for China’s reported numbers? Should they call China up and smack their hand for it?


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## TheMadPenguin (May 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You are looking for something nefarious on the part of John Hopkins when there is nothing there.


No, not JHU: China.


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They can only post what China reports. Everyone knows that China’s numbers are not accurate or truthful.


 This is what I would expect JHU to note...


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Should they call China up and smack their hand for it?


That would be a good start. Specifically, I'm not asserting JHU has any part in any conspiracy.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> No, not JHU: China.
> This is what I would expect JHU to note...
> 
> That would be a good start. Specifically, I'm not asserting JHU has any part in any conspiracy.



Sure it is. You implied that JHU is not “validity-checking” their data. They can’t though. The only data they have is what China reports. They can’t compare the data because only China has it. China does not care what JHU or anyone else thinks. Nor can any University or anyone else hold China accountable for it.


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## gumbyk (May 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Perhaps I'm alone and foolish in being flat-out incredulous of China's claim of no (or near no) new cases since early March. I rather doubt that. Make your own conclusions, and make them known if you will.


Considering they had a widely reported lockdown of Harbin in April, I have to doubt your numbers.
Second wave: Alarm bells ring as China scrambles to stop NEW outbreak - lockdown initiated


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## stona (May 18, 2020)

We can take the official Chinese figures at face value or not. The Chinese government is stating that the total number of confirmed cases is just under 90,000, some sources_ in China_ reckon that number should be 640,000.

We have no way of knowing which is more accurate.

We know some countries are definitely under reporting, several in central and south America for example. Russian figures look a bit dubious too, but again, dubious and provably false are not the same thing.

In the UK every death which has Covid-19 mentioned on either portion of the death certificate is recorded as a coronavirus death, wherever it occurs. My wife recently held a service for someone who died at home, having been sent home from palliative care in a hospice to do just that. The death certificate mentioned Covid-19, but her family, rightly in my opinion, do not believe this was the cause of death. She was NOT tested. The lady died primarily from a lung cancer for which she had been treated for the last 18 months and from which she was terminally ill.


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## ThomasP (May 18, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 17
cases 15,668**, recovered 10,897, hospitalized 2,090, deaths 722**, tested 150,605*/**
fatality rate 4.6%
mortality rate 126.7 per million
test rate 26.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.

As of today, ~26% of the 70+ age group who contracted COVID-19 have died. Of the 60-69 age group ~5% have died. Of the 40-49 age group ~1.5% have died. 98% of all fatalities had underlying pre-existing conditions.


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## pbehn (May 18, 2020)

stona said:


> We can take the official Chinese figures at face value or not. The Chinese government is stating that the total number of confirmed cases is just under 90,000, some sources_ in China_ reckon that number should be 640,000.
> 
> We have no way of knowing which is more accurate.
> 
> ...


The international agreement is for cases to be reported by a confirmed case in a hospital. If you don't test anyone you have no cases.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

stona said:


> We can take the official Chinese figures at face value or not. The Chinese government is stating that the total number of confirmed cases is just under 90,000, some sources_ in China_ reckon that number should be 640,000.
> 
> We have no way of knowing which is more accurate.
> 
> ...



Certain media outlets and people keep saying the same thing here in the US, usually in another conspiracy attempt to downplay the seriousness of the virus. Yet one can argue that the numbers are understated as well.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...virus-deaths-are-undercounted/?outputType=amp

Most likely I would think with some that in the end the numbers even themselves out, and largely are about what is being reported in places like the US and England.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

Take the US as well. There are large swaths of area not reporting a single case or death. When you look at testing in those areas, there was virtually none due to a lack of available testing. This too contributed to lower numbers at first.

As I stated further, the numbers probably even themselves out.

Also many rural places have less overall cases due to the sparsity of the population, but also people in such areas are less likely to be tested as well.


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## nuuumannn (May 18, 2020)

at6 said:


> "To hell with your "freedom". What the hell about our lives?"



Ask your government, at6.

One country absent from the JHU list is the Cook Islands. No cases of covid-19 and no deaths! Go Rarotonga!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Ask your government, at6.
> 
> One country absent from the JHU list is the Cook Islands. No cases of covid-19 and no deaths! Go Rarotonga!



Lies! They are not reported cases as part of the Deep State conspiracy!

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## nuuumannn (May 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Lies! They are not reported cases as part of the Deep State conspiracy!



You might have something there! The Chinese did fund a new courthouse and police station in the capital Avarua (in a bid for fishing rights, which were denied to them).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> You might have something there! The Chinese did fund a new courthouse and police station in the capital Avarua (in a bid for fishing rights, which were denied to them).



See!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

So my antibody test was “inconclusive”. Whatever the heck that means...lol Apparently it is neither positive, nor negative. 

I’m being told to retake it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

I bet they count me as two, one as positive, one as against. Part of the deep state conspiracy.

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## Crimea_River (May 18, 2020)

So if the first test is inconclusive, how confident should they be in the veracity of the second test result?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> So if the first test is inconclusive, how confident should they be in the veracity of the second test result?



Good question...lol

I suspect the lab screwed up. According to what I am being told, the test required 72 to 96 hours to get accurate results. The lab waited like 12 hours...


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## Airframes (May 18, 2020)

"Sorry, Mr. Adler.The test was inconclusive - but congratulations, you're three months pregnant."

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## Crimea_River (May 18, 2020)

LMAO Terry!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

I just told my wife that. She loved it.

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2020)

It just confirms we're a weird bunch. But at least we recognize it. Well...some of us do.

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## Torch (May 18, 2020)

Best two out of three?????


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## cherry blossom (May 18, 2020)

A little more cautious advice on the vitamin D issue https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/bmjnph/early/2020/05/13/bmjnph-2020-000089.full.pdf

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## vikingBerserker (May 18, 2020)

Dang-it! And I had already bought the world's supply of Vitamin D Toilet Paper!

Seriously, it just (to me) stated common sense, there is no need to OD on the stuff but it was interesting.


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## at6 (May 18, 2020)

I'm taking "safe" doses of "D" and safe levels of vitamin C plus all of the other precautions as recommended so that I might live another 15 years at least. I really don't want to pass over before I reach 85 to perhaps even 100. I'm only 70 years old and that's too young for me.


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## pgeno71 (May 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So my antibody test was “inconclusive”. Whatever the heck that means...lol Apparently it is neither positive, nor negative.
> 
> I’m being told to retake it.



An inconclusive test you say...huuummm. Definitely sounds like something is afoot to me. And, they want you to take it again. Yup, sounds like Russians bots to me, for sure. No wait. May be it was Kazakhstani hackers, those guys get ever body. It could even be the Centaurians from Alpha Centauri A, but they are usually a lot sneakier in there tactics, if you know what I mean.  You guys will have to excuse me I have to go change the tin foil in my hat, I can feel some signals getting though.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 18, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> An inconclusive test you say...huuummm. Definitely sounds like something is afoot to me. And, they want you to take it again. Yup, sounds like Russians bots to me, for sure. No wait. May be it was Kazakhstani hackers, those guys get ever body. It could even be the Centaurians from Alpha Centauri A, but they are usually a lot sneakier in there tactics, if you know what I mean.  You guys will have to excuse me I have to go change the tin foil in my hat, I can feel some signals getting though.



Don’t lie, you actually believe that...

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## pgeno71 (May 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Don’t lie, you actually believe that...



Alright, you got me.

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## at6 (May 19, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Ask your government, at6.
> 
> One country absent from the JHU list is the Cook Islands. No cases of covid-19 and no deaths! Go Rarotonga!


I know some were slightly offended at what I said but freedom to gather in close quarters with no masks and spread the danger bothers me. I hate big government and more socialist style [Communist] government but at this point I'm willing to try a few restrictions temporarily just to stay well. I want business to re-open and would dearly love to sit in a Denny's eating a Denny Burger but I accept that I can't at this time. I see more and more people not using masks in stores and not using social distancing and I don't want any one closer than six to even ten feet from me. I want to be 100 making love to a 21 year old.

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## ThomasP (May 19, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 18
cases 16,372**, recovered 10,764***, hospitalized 2,128, deaths 731**, tested 156,606*/**
fatality rate 4.5%
mortality rate 128.2 per million
test rate 27.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.
***A correction to the number of cases no longer needing isolation was made between the 17th and 18th.


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## pbehn (May 19, 2020)

Most people can understand that 2 meters is the same as 6ft when "social distancing" is concerned, when the jobsworths with their tape measures start measuring up and marking out classrooms and corridors, it makes a huge difference.


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## cherry blossom (May 19, 2020)

One of the great mysteries of this epidemic is that individuals have widely different responses to infection. I found an article in one of the top biomedical journals that stated that "Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2" https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3. I haven't read the complete article but perhaps people who have recently had a coronavirus related "common cold" Common Cold Causes: Rhinoviruses and More may be primed to fight off Covid-19.


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## Freebird (May 19, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> . This is similar to the common flu. There have been documented cases of re-infection weeks after index infection. .



Would these not be more likely from testing errors or other factors vs true recovery and reinfection?


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## Marcel (May 19, 2020)

Bit annoyed here. We now have to wear non-medical masks in public transportation our face a €90 fine although they know it’s BS. Those non- medical masks are as effective as wearing a tinfoil hat. I’d rather have them focused on things that really help instead of this political BS.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 19, 2020)

I don’t have a problem with the mask requirement. They keep a person from blasting droplets throughout the area around them, as the majority will stay near the infected person. Is it entirely effective? No, but that is why it should be used in a combination of other barriers such as keeping a distance from people. You combine all the barriers and you reduce the risk. Not remove the risk, but reduce it.

Sure it would be nice to replace them with real medical masks, but that is not possible. Do the best with what we have.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 19, 2020)

To me a mask is nothing but an inconvenience. A minor one at that too. Just my opinion, but I think many people have no clue what real inconvenience is. (This is not regarding anyone here. Just a general statement about society)


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## Marcel (May 19, 2020)

Might be, but it’s harder to breath for no gain and I’m a bit asthmatic. They do this against advices of the experts which makes it more political than anything else.

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## Freebird (May 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Bit annoyed here. We now have to wear non-medical masks in public transportation our face a €90 fine although they know it’s BS. Those non- medical masks are as effective as wearing a tinfoil hat. I’d rather have them focused on things that really help instead of this political BS.


Are you allowed to use a handkerchief if you dont have a mask?

New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have made wearing a mask mandatory in public places



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t have a problem with the mask requirement. They keep a person from blasting droplets throughout the area around them, as the majority will stay near the infected person. .



It's easier to enforce than a "No inconsiderate infectious assholes" rule...

There was the case of the 50 yrs old bus driver in Detroit, after a woman got on the bus and coughed all over him he got sick and died 10 days later.
He had 6 kids.
Now they have to enforce basic courtesy in public.

Detroit bus driver Jason Hargrove dies days after making video about coughing passenger - CNN


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## Marcel (May 19, 2020)

Masks are only good if you know how to handle them and if they are medical masks. Otherwise they only help spreading the virus. Most non-medical masks don’t stop a significant amount of viruses when you sneeze or cough. Estimated for good masks is 10 to 30% which is as good as nothing. And then I’m not even talking about the Handkerchiefs or masks made out of scarves or socks. They just let you make a trail of virus particles like a breadcrumb trail.


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## gumbyk (May 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Masks are only good if you know how to handle them and if they are medical masks. Otherwise they only help spreading the virus. Most non-medical masks don’t stop a significant amount of viruses when you sneeze or cough. Estimated for good masks is 10 to 30% which is as good as nothing. And then I’m not even talking about the Handkerchiefs or masks made out of scarves or socks. They just let you make a trail of virus particles like a breadcrumb trail.


30% is a _lot _better than nothing... In fact I'd say it's a significant contributor to bringing transmission rates down
Given the number of people who are wearing medical masks improperly, I'd say that their effectiveness is probably around 30% for the general public.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Might be, but it’s harder to breath for no gain and I’m a bit asthmatic. They do this against advices of the experts which makes it more political than anything else.



Experts here are recommending the use of masks when in public. And yes it is political too. Those experts who are for it typically lean a certain way, those who lean the other way are against. I can actually only think of one expert who is advising against it, and he works in a political position.

Of course the CDC has flip flopped on this too.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 19, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Masks are only good if you know how to handle them and if they are medical masks. Otherwise they only help spreading the virus. Most non-medical masks don’t stop a significant amount of viruses when you sneeze or cough. Estimated for good masks is 10 to 30% which is as good as nothing. And then I’m not even talking about the Handkerchiefs or masks made out of scarves or socks. They just let you make a trail of virus particles like a breadcrumb trail.



I’m going to disagree. They are about protecting those around you. If you cough, and have a mask on, the particles are not going to blow wildly all over the place.


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## gumbyk (May 19, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Experts here are recommending the use of masks when in public. And yes it is political too. Those experts who are for it typically lean a certain way, those who lean the other way are against. I can actually only think of one expert who is advising against it, and he works in a political position.
> 
> Of course the CDC has flip flopped on this too.


Our director General of Health and the Gov't have been consistent that they aren't mandatory. But, we got on top of it a lot earlier than most countries. Only two new cases in the last week.


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## cherry blossom (May 19, 2020)

I am told that some people in Britain have been seen wearing industrial dust masks with a valve. The idea of such masks is that the air coming in is filtered and the valve allows you to exhale without any resistance. Naturally these do nothing to protect anyone else.


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## Marcel (May 20, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m going to disagree. They are about protecting those around you. If you cough, and have a mask on, the particles are not going to blow wildly all over the place.


That’s what I’m trying to say, most of them actually don’t prevent that.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> That’s what I’m trying to say, most of them actually don’t prevent that.



While I agree that most are not effective (which has never been debated), we will agree to disagree on their usefulness. As I said, when used in conjunction with other barriers, any type of mask should reduce the risk.

Think of the swiss cheese model used in safety management. If you have no barriers, the hazard always gets through. You start adding barriers (swiss cheese slices), and the likelihood of the hazard getting through reduces. There are always holes in every barrier though, so you add more. The more slices (barriers) the more the likelihood reduces. Additionally, because of mitigation caused by the use of more barriers, the consequences are typically lessened.

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## ThomasP (May 20, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 19
cases 17,029**, recovered 11,540, hospitalized 2,221, deaths 748**, tested 161,835*/**
fatality rate 4.4%
mortality rate 131.2 per million
test rate 28.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.


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## nuuumannn (May 20, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I suspect the lab screwed up.



"Sorry Mr Adler, the test was inconclusive, but you did test positive for syphilis..."

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## Marcel (May 20, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> While I agree that most are not effective (which has never been debated), we will agree to disagree on their usefulness. As I said, when used in conjunction with other barriers, any type of mask should reduce the risk.
> 
> Think of the swiss cheese model used in safety management. If you have no barriers, the hazard always gets through. You start adding barriers (swiss cheese slices), and the likelihood of the hazard getting through reduces. There are always holes in every barrier though, so you add more. The more slices (barriers) the more the likelihood reduces. Additionally, because of mitigation caused by the use of more barriers, the consequences are typically lessened.
> 
> View attachment 582143


There is more to it, as this is very much a simplification. But I don't want to put too much time in that argument at the moment, so indeed lets agree to disagree.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> There is more to it, as this is very much a simplification. But I don't want to put too much time in that argument at the moment, so indeed lets agree to disagree.



Marcel, I agree there is more to it.

Relax, my friend. No argument from me, at any point. Nothing more than a discussion. I am saddened that you feel we are arguing.

I will take my leave from further discussion...

No need to upset my friends.


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## Freebird (May 20, 2020)

Marcel said:


> That’s what I’m trying to say, most of them actually don’t prevent that.


Do you have data from a particular study in mind?
I'm assuming that while a cloth mask is far from idea, it's better than nothing?


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## Gnomey (May 20, 2020)

Freebird said:


> Would these not be more likely from testing errors or other factors vs true recovery and reinfection?


It’s possible. The tests are around 75% sensitive so they aren’t great. There are more than 1 similar strain running around though.

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## Marcel (May 20, 2020)

Freebird said:


> Do you have data from a particular study in mind?
> I'm assuming that while a cloth mask is far from idea, it's better than nothing?


Well, you can find multiple. One I recently read was this one  https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342


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## at6 (May 20, 2020)

Even with a mask, cough or sneeze into your elbow as you should have before. That can help with protecting others. I don't have a virus, but I still practice all protocols as if I did.

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## ThomasP (May 20, 2020)

Hey Marcel,

The following is from the comments section of the study you refer to: "Prevention of the spread of coronavirus using masks."

"In fact, compared with the control condition, the petri dish viral load was less with a cloth mask for all patients, and in half, was not detectable."

The following is from the study's author "Author's response to the comments" near the end if the page.

"We totally agree with Dr. Camioli’s comments indicating that there are no evidence about that surgical masks are ineffective for healthcare workers. In addition, we agree with his opinion that masks may reduce the forward momentum of the virus-spit particles. Our small study did not show surgical or cotton masks have no role to spread SARS-CoV-2 to the environment. We assume that surgical mask may be not equivalent to N95-equivalent high efficient masks for outward spreading especially in coughing COVID-19 patients, while we just completed additional experiment using N95-equivalent masks. *We did not show that any kind of masks such as cotton or surgical masks have no role to quantitatively reduce the spread of coughing SARS-CoV-2 to the environment.* Based on empirical evidence, masks might shorten the distance of aerosol containing virus (Dr. Camioli’s comments), redirect the turbulent jets in less harmful directions (outward protection), and reduce the amount of virus particles from the patients, although the targeted studies using SARS-CoV-2 are lacking."

Also see the following mask vs no mask study, which included 111 test subjects: Leung NHL, Chu DKW, Shiu EYC, Chan K-H, McDevitt JJ, Hau BJP, et al. Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks. Nat Med [Internet]. 2020 Apr 3 [cited 2020 Apr 6]; Available from: "Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks"

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## Marcel (May 21, 2020)

Yeah nothing is black and white. And I agree that most of these studies are not extensive enough to be a real scientific basis, so they are covering up for that here and don’t do hard conclusions. They don’t take sides. 
And probably for every study I could put here you’ll be able to find something with opposite conclusions. Non of the studies I’ve seen cover all the facets. 
F.i the fact that after coughs there is more virus in the outside of the mask then on the inside is an interesting one, especially given the long survival time of the virus on surfaces. There is a study, which I can’t find right now which shows that inexperienced people wearing masks will touch that mask more. So they will spread it through their hands, touching surfaces which is the main method for spreading for most flu like viruses anyway. So this will not stop that or even enhance that method of spreading. And we have the psychology factor to consider. I expect the false sense of security will let many to not fully follow the protocols anymore. Considering the evidence, I still believe coughing in your elbow and keeping distance will be way more effective than wearing a cotton mask. 

I’m not talking about the N95 masks here. They might have some effect, but even there people need proper training on how to use them. And they won’t be as effective as for doctors and surgeons. The outside world is not a controlled environment like a surgical room.


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## ThomasP (May 21, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 19
cases 17,029**, recovered 11,540, hospitalized 2,221, deaths 748**, tested 161,835*/**
fatality rate 4.4%
mortality rate 131.2 per million
test rate 28.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.


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## rochie (May 21, 2020)

Just hoping England doesn't have a second wave in a week or so, beaches and tourist spots were busy yesterday as the temperature was in the mid 20's centigrade, if some of the tv reports and pictures ive seen are true very little social distancing was being observed.
Seen footage of huge queue's just to go through a McDonald's drive through that had reopened !
We are not a well disciplined population sadly.


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## ThomasP (May 22, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 20
cases 17,670**, recovered 12,227, hospitalized 2,308, deaths 777**, tested 167,338*/**
fatality rate 4.4%
mortality rate 136.3 per million
test rate 29.4 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.


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## buffnut453 (May 22, 2020)

Interesting article on the BBC about a potential treatment for people who suffer severe COVID-19 symptoms. Apparently, a pattern has emerged with more than 70% of patients with severe symptoms also suffer from a significant drop in T-cells within the blood (T-cells are part of the body's immune system to help fight off diseases and infections). The drop in T-cells is in the range 50%-75% which is huge. Essentially, the virus appears to be somehow hindering the body's ability to fight back. The precise mechanism for how COVID-19 achieves this is unknown but, in the meantime, this discovery has led to a trial using a drug that helps boost the body's ability to generate T-cells. The drug has already been safely trialled on patients with sepsis. Here's the article:

Immune clue sparks coronavirus treatment hope 

If the trial with COVID-19 patients is successful, this could be a game-changer by providing an ability to test for those who are most at risk, and give ER professionals something to actually fight back against this virus rather that putting people on ventilators and hoping for the best (I know that's not exactly what's happening now...but a good, reliable treatment to help fight the virus has yet to be identified). 

Just sharing this glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, the smart healthcare professionals of the world are making headway against this virus.

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## rochie (May 22, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting article on the BBC about a potential treatment for people who suffer severe COVID-19 symptoms. Apparently, a pattern has emerged with more than 70% of patients with severe symptoms also suffer from a significant drop in T-cells within the blood (T-cells are part of the body's immune system to help fight off diseases and infections). The drop in T-cells is in the range 50%-75% which is huge. Essentially, the virus appears to be somehow hindering the body's ability to fight back. The precise mechanism for how COVID-19 achieves this is unknown but, in the meantime, this discovery has led to a trial using a drug that helps boost the body's ability to generate T-cells. The drug has already been safely trialled on patients with sepsis. Here's the article:
> 
> Immune clue sparks coronavirus treatment hope
> 
> ...


lets hope it leads to something more solid


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## pgeno71 (May 22, 2020)

rochie said:


> lets hope it leads to something more solid



I thought we have remdesivir now. That was supposed clear everybody up in three days or so. The new standard remember.


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## at6 (May 22, 2020)

rochie said:


> Just hoping England doesn't have a second wave in a week or so, beaches and tourist spots were busy yesterday as the temperature was in the mid 20's centigrade, if some of the tv reports and pictures ive seen are true very little social distancing was being observed.
> Seen footage of huge queue's just to go through a McDonald's drive through that had reopened !
> We are not a well disciplined population sadly.


Sounds like you've been to California.


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## Gnomey (May 22, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting article on the BBC about a potential treatment for people who suffer severe COVID-19 symptoms. Apparently, a pattern has emerged with more than 70% of patients with severe symptoms also suffer from a significant drop in T-cells within the blood (T-cells are part of the body's immune system to help fight off diseases and infections). The drop in T-cells is in the range 50%-75% which is huge. Essentially, the virus appears to be somehow hindering the body's ability to fight back. The precise mechanism for how COVID-19 achieves this is unknown but, in the meantime, this discovery has led to a trial using a drug that helps boost the body's ability to generate T-cells. The drug has already been safely trialled on patients with sepsis. Here's the article:
> 
> Immune clue sparks coronavirus treatment hope
> 
> ...


Indeed will be interesting to see what happens with this.

We’ve been looking at lymphocyte counts on bloods as a marker for COVID infection and lower levels correlate well with positive infection rates. Before now we never really took much notice of the lymphocyte counts.


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## ThomasP (May 23, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 22
cases 19,005**, recovered 12,696, hospitalized 2,432, deaths 842**, tested 180,971*/**
fatality rate 4.4%
mortality rate 147.7 per million
test rate 31.7 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.


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## ThomasP (May 24, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 23
cases 19,845**, recovered 13,485, hospitalized 2,432, deaths 852**, tested 189,493*/**
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 149.5 per million
test rate 33.2 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The measures used by Minnesota have reduced the rate of spread significantly, however, our rate of spread (reflected by the death rate 'curve') appears to be steady.


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## The Basket (May 24, 2020)

Speaking to someone who said they had it.

Although they were not tested so only proof is the symptoms.

A fully fit adult with no health concerns should shake it off.

A person especially with respiratory issues is in for a bad time.


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## Vincenzo (May 24, 2020)

Italy report, 24th May 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 229,858, +4,423, deaths 32,785, +877, recovered 140,479, +15,303, active cases 56,594, -11,757, tests 3,447,012, +442,052, people tested 2,198,632
fatality rate 14.3% (+0,1)
mortality rate 544 per million (+15)
test rate 57.1 per thousand (+7.3)
positive rate 10.5%* this is the true positive rate not the apparent like the previous, the apparent is 6.7% (-0.8)
test rate this week 7329 per million
apparent positive rate this week 1% (-0.1)
new case rate this week 73 per million


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## at6 (May 24, 2020)

With the way people are behaving, I expect to see a spike in cases fairly soon. I wonder how long it will be before Brazil exceeds the U. S. as the number one hot spot.


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## ThomasP (May 25, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 24
cases 20,573**, recovered 14,115, hospitalized 2,588, deaths 869**, tested 197,964*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 152.5 per million
test rate 34.7 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days).


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## wuzak (May 25, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Minnesota report, May 24
> cases 20,573**, recovered 14,115, hospitalized 2,588, deaths 869**, tested 197,964*/**
> fatality rate 4.2%
> mortality rate 152.5 per million
> ...



Putting your numbers into perspective....

Minnesota has ~1/5 the population of Australia.
Around 3 times the number of recorded infections, and over 8.5 times the number of deaths!

Australia now has under 500 active cases.


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## ThomasP (May 25, 2020)

Hey wuzak, unfortunately you are correct. 

The first known case of COVID-19 in the United States was reported on 19 January, and confirmed on 20 January

The first known COVID-19 case in Minnesota occurred 45 days later on 5 March, and was traced to an elderly man returning home from vacation, He had been a passenger on the Grand Princess cruise liner, and had been allowed to debark before the ship's quarantine went into effect. However, it is now known (via antigen testing of people that had relatively mild symptoms at that time) that COVID-19 was present in Minnesota as early as the 3rd week of February. It is believed (via tracing at a later date) that some of the late-February cases were communicated from our neighboring state of Wisconsin, which had its first known case reported on 30 January (although it was not confirmed until February 5).

Unfortunately, Minnesota was no different than most states in the US (or most countries worldwide) and we were seriously unprepared relative to testing/tracing/isolating. Hence we also underestimated the speed at which COVID-19 was spreading. Minnesota did not issue the social distancing/stay at home order until 27 March - 22 days after Minnesota case#1. By that time there were 635 confirmed cases, and given what we now know about the percentage of people who show mild or no symptoms, there were probably at least 2x as many unconfirmed cases.

Although there were other factors, the sudden rapid increase in cases and deaths in our care facilities during the third week of March prompted immediate action. If we could have kept COVID-19 out of the nursing home/extended care/assisted living facilities (~80% of our fatalities) Minnesota's number of deaths would probably look more like Australia's, although our number of cases would still be about as high.

On the plus side, we did manage to prevent our hospitals and ICUs from being overwhelmed, though it is heartbreaking to see how the medical personnel are being affected. I mentioned up-thread that I sometimes work as a medical courier, so I spend a fair amount of time at a couple of hospitals, and during my visits I have gotten to know a lot of staff. I could be (hope I am) wrong but I suspect we will be losing a significant number of people to burnout and/or early retirement after this is over. And I do not even want to think about the amount of non-combat PTSD that will occur.

I am getting my keyboard wet so I think I will look at funny cat pictures for a while.


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## Glider (May 25, 2020)

I used to be a Psychotherapist in a London Hospital before moving four years ago to working in a Police Force. At the hospital my clients were the medical and other staff, not the patients of the hospital. Speaking to my colleagues still working at the hospital they, not surprisingly, are having a tough time of things and my heart goes out to them.

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## MiTasol (May 25, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Unfortunately, Minnesota was no different than most states in the US (or most countries worldwide).



The only countries that acted properly for their own citizens were Taiwan and, I REALLY hate to say this, China.

China immediately banned all travel from Wuhan to every other part of China and totally locked Wuhan down. 

In hindsight that should have told every other country that this virus was dangerous and that everyone else should have banned all travel from Wuhan.

Instead everyone else allowed flights from Wuhan to transmit the disease world wide.


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## Crimea_River (May 25, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> ......China immediately banned all travel from Wuhan to every other part of China and totally locked Wuhan down......



Well, that's what they _said _they did. Who knows what they really did.


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## MiTasol (May 25, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Putting your numbers into perspective....
> 
> Minnesota has ~1/5 the population of Australia.
> Around 3 times the number of recorded infections, and over 8.5 times the number of deaths!
> ...



But in Australia the Federal Feral and NSW governments are demanding that all states open their borders even though NSW, and Victoria, still have a significant number of new cases daily.

I also dislike the way the Feral government changed the statistics a couple of weeks ago so that cases are now listed by the state the victim normally resided in, not the state where the person was infected. This slashed the NSW total some 60% and artificially inflated the other states infection levels.

For those overseas the vast majority of Aus cases came from three cruise ships that the NSW government allowed to unload without any testing or quarantine and all had some level of Covid infection. One of those, the Ruby Princess, was loaded with infected people who then went home on public transport and commercial airlines and spread their illness to passengers and locals before the source was discovered. All those who were diagnosed in their home state are naturally listed as local infections when in reality they should have been listed as NSW because if NSW had tested and quarantined those people in Sydney they would never have spread their illness outside NSW.


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## MiTasol (May 25, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Well, that's what they _said _they did. Who knows what they really did.



True, _China _and _dishonesty _are synonyms but there was no shortage of press reports at the time showing the lockdown of the city and closure of all roads and railways in and out of town. I am fairly sure if someone here was to check flight tracking websites for flights in and out of Wuhan internal Chinese flights will show as ceasing about the same time.

We know from other sources that Wuhans death toll was over 70,000 and the stats for the rest of China are equally suspicious but the western journalists in the rest of China were not showing major restrictions elsewhere and those deported have not changed their tune since.


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## pbehn (May 25, 2020)

If we stop making and buying cars would that help with this car owner virus? Just an idea?

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## fubar57 (May 25, 2020)

You'll probably want this....

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## pbehn (May 25, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> You'll probably want this....
> 
> View attachment 582866​


I am already in the next town.

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## MiTasol (May 25, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I am already in the next town.



Wow - the worlds first supersonic chicken

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## pbehn (May 25, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Wow - the worlds first supersonic chicken


I never post without putting on the hat and coat first and have a table reserved near the door.

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## wuzak (May 25, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> But in Australia the Federal Feral and NSW governments are demanding that all states open their borders even though NSW, and Victoria, still have a significant number of new cases daily.
> 
> I also dislike the way the Feral government changed the statistics a couple of weeks ago so that cases are now listed by the state the victim normally resided in, not the state where the person was infected. This slashed the NSW total some 60% and artificially inflated the other states infection levels.
> 
> For those overseas the vast majority of Aus cases came from three cruise ships that the NSW government allowed to unload without any testing or quarantine and all had some level of Covid infection. One of those, the Ruby Princess, was loaded with infected people who then went home on public transport and commercial airlines and spread their illness to passengers and locals before the source was discovered. All those who were diagnosed in their home state are naturally listed as local infections when in reality they should have been listed as NSW because if NSW had tested and quarantined those people in Sydney they would never have spread their illness outside NSW.



Didn't the Ruby Princess depart on another cruise after having positive cases?

It wasn't just the NSW government that allowed those people to disembark and go on their merry way, the Border Farce also have responsibility in that area. 

The Border Farce are also in charge of airports, where returning passengers were not screened and were herded in tight confines through the airports. After the travel bans were in place.


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## Crimea_River (May 25, 2020)

pbehn said:


> I never post without putting on the hat and coat first and have a table reserved near the door.



Say hello to Terry while you're out on the sidewalk.

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## at6 (May 25, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Say hello to Terry while you're out on the sidewalk.



This ended up as a double post. At last I've achieved what I believed only a few others here could do!!! Yaaaay!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## at6 (May 25, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Say hello to Terry while you're out on the sidewalk.


Just remember to wear a mask and practice social distancing.


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## Shortround6 (May 25, 2020)

With jokes like that the social distancing is pretty much assured

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## Crimea_River (May 25, 2020)

Was going to say exactly the same thing! And now we eagerly await the vaccine!


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## MiTasol (May 26, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Didn't the Ruby Princess depart on another cruise after having positive cases?
> 
> It wasn't just the NSW government that allowed those people to disembark and go on their merry way, the Border Farce also have responsibility in that area.
> 
> The Border Farce are also in charge of airports, where returning passengers were not screened and were herded in tight confines through the airports. After the travel bans were in place.



Yes the Ruby Princess was a repeat offender but NSW Health gave it a clean bill of health regardless. ********s black shirts claim they had no responsibility when it comes to ships and I really honestly believe them *NOT *- I think they take lessons from China, just like their chief


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## MiTasol (May 26, 2020)

And todays news about Border Farce - they knew for days before arrival a ship going to Fremantle had covid on board but did not tell Freo until now *four days after it docked*

And their previous boss says they were responsible for the Ruby Princess debacle


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## ThomasP (May 26, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 25
cases 21,315**, recovered 14,816, hospitalized 2,676, deaths 881**, tested 204,059*/**
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 154.6 per million
test rate 35.8 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days).


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## Zipper730 (May 26, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Didn't the Ruby Princess depart on another cruise after having positive cases?
> 
> It wasn't just the NSW government that allowed those people to disembark and go on their merry way, the Border Farce also have responsibility in that area.
> 
> The Border Farce are also in charge of airports, where returning passengers were not screened and were herded in tight confines through the airports. After the travel bans were in place.


It seems we're led by a bunch of inept morons.


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## Vincenzo (May 26, 2020)

6th case in my town

is the ~75 years old mother of my friend, very strange case she is not going out since before of pandemia she can't walk


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## fubar57 (May 26, 2020)

Things are slowly...slowly returning to normal because for the most part B.C. is listening to the expert. As of yesterday...






























​Still lacking in testing however

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 26, 2020)

Well the US toppled 100,000 deaths so far...


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## Crimea_River (May 26, 2020)

30 x 9-11's and where's the outrage?


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## MiTasol (May 26, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> 6th case in my town
> 
> is the ~75 years old mother of my friend, very strange case she is not going out since before of pandemia she can't walk



Here in Australia we have two new cases with two months incubation if caught overseas and no indication of local infection. *Scary*


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## ThomasP (May 26, 2020)

An interesting piece of information I ran across the other day.

For the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic, in countries where detailed record keeping was possible, the following applied:

Average age of fatality was 28.
99% of deaths occurred in the under 65 age group.
People over the age of 65 had a 4% mortality rate.
People over the age of 75 had the lowest mortality rate.

For the current COVID-19 influenza pandemic, in Minnesota, the following applies:

Average age of fatality is 86 (median age is 83).
~1.5% of deaths are occurring in the under 50 age group, with a mortality rate of .1% (ie 1/10 of 1%)
98.5% of deaths are occurring in the over 50 age group.
People of the age 50-59 have a 1.3% mortality rate.
People of the age 60-69 have a 5% mortality rate.
People of the age 70-79 have a 15% mortality rate.
People of the age 80-89 have a 27% mortality rate.
People of the age 90-99 have a 36% mortality rate.
People of the age 100+ have a 43% mortality rate.


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## ThomasP (May 26, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 26
cases 21,960**, recovered 15,523, hospitalized 2,709, deaths 899**, tested 209,898*/**
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 157.7 per million
test rate 36.8 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days).


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## ThomasP (May 28, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 27
cases 22,464**, recovered 16,314, hospitalized 2,796, deaths 932**, tested 216,532*/**
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 163.5 per million
test rate [38] per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 7,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.

EDIT Doh! Should be 38 not 40, did the math wrong.


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## pgeno71 (May 28, 2020)

ThomasP said:


> Minnesota report, May 27
> cases 22,464**, recovered 16,314, hospitalized 2,796, deaths 932**, tested 216,532*/**
> fatality rate 4.1%
> mortality rate 163.5 per million
> ...



ThomasP,

Do you know if the new case totals for Minnesota include both viral and antibody tests results?


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## vikingBerserker (May 28, 2020)

After working from home for well over a month, we finally get to work in office this coming Monday. I will miss sleeping in until 7:30 as opposed to getting up at 5:45 am.

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## gumbyk (May 28, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> After working from home for well over a month, we finally get to work in office this coming Monday. I will miss sleeping in until 7:30 as opposed to getting up at 5:45 am.


There are plenty of people here who are continuing to work form home. Businesses have realised that people can be just as productive at home (at least for a couple of days a week).

I wouldn't want to be the owner of an office building at the moment. Companies closing, and those that are still operating are realising that by have people work form home half hte time, they don't need the same amount of office space.

Airlines have a similar worry - people have realised that they don't need to have as many face-to-face meetings: on-line can work just as well for some things. Business travel may not bounce back to what it was...

I think this virus will change the way we work and do business.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 28, 2020)

I will most likely continue to work from home until at least August. I’m ok with that too. In fact if given the option to work from home permanently, I will probably do so. I am still productive, but I get to see my family more. Instead of leaving at 4:30 in the morning before my family wakes up, I get up right before 6. I can have breakfast and lunch with the family. I get off at 14:30, and can go straight to doing family stuff.

Work-Life balance. Something this country I feel has forgotten a thing or two about.

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## gumbyk (May 28, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I will most likely continue to work from home until at least August. I’m ok with that too. In fact if given the option to work from home permanently, I will probably do so. I am still productive, but I get to see my family more. Instead of leaving at 4:30 in the morning before my family wakes up, I get up right before 6. I can have breakfast and lunch with the family. I get off at 14:30, and can go straight to doing family stuff.
> 
> Work-Life balance. Something this country I feel has forgotten a thing or two about.


Having been working from home now for 10 years, I know how you feel.

It's not all good though. It's really easy to work 12+ hour days, and be 'always on call'. 
If we didn't have a dedicated office space then I don't think I could do it successfully. I still have the 'go to work' and 'come home form work' mindset.
I also sit here when the weather's good and think about all the jobs you could be doing around the house.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Having been working from home now for 10 years, I know how you feel.
> 
> It's not all good though. It's really easy to work 12+ hour days, and be 'always on call'.
> If we didn't have a dedicated office space then I don't think I could do it successfully. I still have the 'go to work' and 'come home form work' mindset.
> I also sit here when the weather's good and think about all the jobs you could be doing around the house.



Having a dedicated office certainly helps. I could not do it without one. My kids would not let me get any work done. lol

I converted an extra bedroom into an office. Got a nice desk and office chair, and I brought my 2 monitors, 2 mouses, keyboard, docking station and everything from my work desk home.


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## ThomasP (May 29, 2020)

Hey pgeno71,

I asked your question at the lab today and was told that currently the case rate is based only on new cases, ie someone who tested positive for the COVID-19 virus antigen - meaning that they were infected at the time of the test. For the vast majority of the cases counted this means the positive test was of the PCR variety. There have been a few cases of people receiving an antibody (serology) test while being infected with COVID-19 and being non-symptomatic (an antibody test can sometimes indicate active virus also), and these people were subsequently counted as new cases. The results of serology tests that only show past infection are, however, being recorded for use in historical tracing of the spread of the virus.


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## ThomasP (May 29, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 28
cases 22,947**, recovered 16,665, hospitalized 2,880, deaths 967**, tested 225,208*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 169.6 per million
test rate 39.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 8,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.


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## ThomasP (May 29, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota report, May 28

To date, Minnesota has been able to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. However, over the last week 2 out of 3 Level 1 trauma centers in the Twin Cities metro area (the trauma centers with the most capable and largest ICU capacities) have had to begin using their 'surge' capacity.


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## ThomasP (May 29, 2020)

Some Singaporean COVID-19 humor







and

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## TheMadPenguin (May 29, 2020)

World Health Org promised that canines can't transfer Wu Han Kung Flu to humans. So yes, WHO let the dogs out.

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## ThomasP (May 29, 2020)

LOL. Good one.


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## Gnomey (May 29, 2020)

Well I got antibody yesterday today along with a lot of the other hospital staff. I’ve been asymptomatic but will not be surprised if it’s positive...

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## ThomasP (May 30, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 29
cases 23,531**, recovered 16,930, hospitalized 2,936, deaths 996**, tested 233,873*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 174.7 per million
test rate 41 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota's ability to test is now more than 8,000 people/day. Testing of the general population is beginning in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.


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## ThomasP (May 30, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 30
cases 24,190**, recovered 17,864, hospitalized 3,011, deaths 1,026**, tested 242,508*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 180 per million
test rate 42.5 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 8,000 people/day. Testing is available to the general population in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.


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## Vincenzo (May 31, 2020)

Italy report, 31st May 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 233,019, +3,161, deaths 33,415, +630, recovered 157,507, +17,028, active cases 42,075, -14,519, tests 3,878,739, +431,727, people tested 2,433,621, +234,989
fatality rate 14.3% (=)
mortality rate 554 per million (+10)
test rate 64.3 per thousand (+7,2)
positive rate 9.6% (-0.9)
test rate this week 7,158 per million
positive rate this week 1.3%, apparent positive rate this week 0.7% (-0.3)
new case rate this week 52 per million

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## ThomasP (May 31, 2020)

Minnesota report, May 31
cases 24,850**, recovered 18,695, hospitalized 3,047, deaths 1,040**, tested 249,519*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 182.5 per million
test rate 43.8 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 8,000 people/day. Testing is available to the general population in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.

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## Marcel (Jun 1, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Having a dedicated office certainly helps. I could not do it without one. My kids would not let me get any work done. lol
> 
> I converted an extra bedroom into an office. Got a nice desk and office chair, and I brought my 2 monitors, 2 mouses, keyboard, docking station and everything from my work desk home.


I work from the living room. But fetched my chair and a monitor. It’s doable but last week I’ve been at the office for one day which was great.


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 1, 2020)

Only bad things about working at home is I no longer have a refuge from work. Beyond that I enjoyed it.

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## gumbyk (Jun 1, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Only bad things about working at home is I no longer have a refuge from work. Beyond that I enjoyed it.


Yeah, but you can drink at work if you work from home...

It takes a bit of discipline to not answer the phone out of hours. I'm not a work-a-holic type anyway so don't have too much problem that way, but can put in a 12 hour day, and still have dinner with the family and spend time with my son.

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## ThomasP (Jun 2, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 1
cases 25,208**, recovered 19,441, hospitalized 3,086, deaths 1,050**, tested 255,592*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 184.2 per million
test rate 44.8 per thousand*
*Test kits and reagents are becoming more available, and Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 8,000 people/day. Testing is available to the general population in small numbers.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the potential rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days), but it needs to be remembered that the test rate is increasing significantly.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 2, 2020)

Just got the "dashboard report" from my state. No new cases in six days, 1 (one) person currently in hospital (not ICU), no deaths in almost two weeks, total deaths to date 55, out of a state population of 630,000.
Barbershop opened today and I got shorn!
Cheers,
Wes


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## rochie (Jun 2, 2020)

Rather predictably the UK press who a couple of weeks ago were calling for us to come out of lockdown are now saying we're coming out of lockdown too early !


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## rochie (Jun 2, 2020)

Unfortunately it seems the UK government is bowing to the financial pressure to come out of lockdown rather than the medical and scientific data.

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## Airframes (Jun 2, 2020)

Yep, they've run out of things to senstionalise. Next week, we can probably expect stories about cats stuck up trees.


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## ThomasP (Jun 3, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 2
cases 25,508**, recovered 20,381, hospitalized 3,134, deaths 1,072**, tested 258,747*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 188.1 per million
test rate 45.4 per thousand*
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 8,000 people/day, and testing is available to the general population in small numbers. However, logistics are still a problem.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. However, based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days). The number of current cases in hospitals and ICUs has risen slowly but steadily to 3,134 and 1,003 respectively.


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## ThomasP (Jun 5, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 3
cases 26,269**, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 3,203, deaths 1,086**, tested 265,718*/**
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 190.5 per million
test rate 46.6 per thousand*


Minnesota report, June 4
cases 26,273**, recovered 21,490, hospitalized 3,253, deaths 1,115**, tested 275,642*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 195.6 per million
test rate 48.4 per thousand*
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 8,000 people/day, and testing is available to the general population in small numbers. However, logistics are still a problem.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. Based on the hospitalization and death rates, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days).


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## Gnomey (Jun 5, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Well I got antibody yesterday today along with a lot of the other hospital staff. I’ve been asymptomatic but will not be surprised if it’s positive...


Results are in and it’s negative. Guess PPE works...

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## Vincenzo (Jun 5, 2020)

Updating data from my town
6 cases total (one each 800 people)
2 deaths
3 recovered (2 were asymptomatic and one mild)
1 active but asymptomatic


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## pgeno71 (Jun 6, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Results are in and it’s negative. Guess PPE works...



Great news Gnomey, I inadvertently "agreed" with your post, when I was looking for a "good news" or "happy" response. Take care.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2020)

Inadvertently...


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## ThomasP (Jun 6, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 5
cases 26,985**, recovered 21,864, hospitalized 3,289, deaths 1,148**, tested 322,340*/**/***
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 203.2 per million
test rate 56.6 per thousand*/***
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 10,000 people/day, and testing is available to the general population in small numbers. However, logistics are still a problem.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. Based on the hospitalization and death rates for the last 20 days, the rate of spread is still increasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.035 new cases each day (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 20 days). Using the number of tests coming in positive the R factor is 1.045 (ie the number of new cases each day is doubling every 16 days).
***Minnesota had an unusually large number of test results come in today, due to delayed test completion for the last 4-5 days. The delays were caused by logistical problems due to the current unrest across the country.


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## Bernhart (Jun 6, 2020)

we have had our first positive patient, no symptoms. I've been tested and am negative!

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## Crimea_River (Jun 6, 2020)

Good to know. I had a sore throat for 3 days during the week and got tested Thursday evening. Awaiting results.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Inadvertently...



My laptop has it in for me...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> My laptop has it in for me...



I find it amazing you would not agree.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I find it amazing you would not agree.



I'm not sure what you mean.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I'm not sure what you mean.









Gnomey who happens to be a Dr. said that apparently the PPE works, as he tested negative despite treating coronavirus patients. You responded, saying that you inadvertently agreed with him. That means you did so by accident, meaning you don’t agree.

I don’t understand why anyone would disagree.


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## Crimea_River (Jun 6, 2020)

He's saying that he hit the "Agree" button by mistake instead of the "Like" button.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> He's saying that he hit the "Agree" button by mistake instead of the "Like" button.



Ah, either way. It’s not a bad thing to agree with.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ah, either way. It’s not a bad thing to agree with.



I was not saying PPEs don't work...they do. I thought that agreeing to the news about Gnomey was odd because I thought it made me sound like I was saying "Yes, I agree your test is negative." Which sounds strange to me since I had nothing to do with administering the test. I read the part about the PPEs, but I was more focused on the news of the test results, and that was the target of my response. The joke about my laptop was pretty much what Crimea_River explained. I was looking through the response options and I must have pressed too hard on the scroll pad as I moved the cursor and accidentally selected agree. Next time, I guess, I'll just go straight to bacon.


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## at6 (Jun 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I was not saying PPEs don't work...they do. I thought that agreeing to the news about Gnomey was odd because I thought it made me sound like I was saying "Yes, I agree your test is negative." Which sounds strange to me since I had nothing to do with administering the test. I read the part about the PPEs, but I was more focused on the news of the test results, and that was the target of my response. The joke about my laptop was pretty much what Crimea_River explained. I was looking through the response options and I must have pressed too hard on the scroll pad as I moved the cursor and accidentally selected agree. Next time, I guess, I'll just go straight to bacon.


Bacon is delicious.


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## at6 (Jun 7, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Results are in and it’s negative. Guess PPE works...


Thank God that you haven't caught it. This is virus to to dismiss even though many fail to take it seriously.


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## at6 (Jun 7, 2020)

People who who want to gather in close quarters deserve what they get if they catch it. Just stay the hell away from me as I don't want it. I'm practicing social distancing and wearing my mask. As for the protestors, they get it and die, so what? No skin off of my butt.

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## Vincenzo (Jun 7, 2020)

Italy report, 7th June 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 234,998, +1,979, deaths 33,899, +484, recovered 165,837, +8,330, active cases 35,262, -6,813, tests 4,236,535, +357,796, people tested 2,627,188, +193,567
fatality rate 14.4% (+0.1)
mortality rate 562 per million (+8)
test rate 70.2 per thousand (+5.9)
positive rate 8.9% (-0.7)
test rate this week 5,932 per million (-1,226)
positive rate this week 1% (-0.3)
new case rate this week 33 per million (-19)


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## Gnomey (Jun 7, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I was not saying PPEs don't work...they do. I thought that agreeing to the news about Gnomey was odd because I thought it made me sound like I was saying "Yes, I agree your test is negative." Which sounds strange to me since I had nothing to do with administering the test. I read the part about the PPEs, but I was more focused on the news of the test results, and that was the target of my response. The joke about my laptop was pretty much what Crimea_River explained. I was looking through the response options and I must have pressed too hard on the scroll pad as I moved the cursor and accidentally selected agree. Next time, I guess, I'll just go straight to bacon.


You can change it anyway but hitting remove and choosing another one...


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## ThomasP (Jun 7, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 6
cases 27,498**, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 3,336, deaths 1,170**, tested 333,484*/**
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 205.3 per million
test rate 58.5 per thousand*/**


Minnesota report, June 7
cases 27,886**, recovered 21,864, hospitalized 3,367, deaths 1,186**, tested 344,203*/**
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 208.1 per million
test rate 60.4 per thousand*
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 10,000 people/day, and testing is available to the general population in small numbers. However, logistics are still a problem.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 7, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> You can change it anyway but hitting remove and choosing another one...



Thanks for the tip. Take care, stay safe.


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## Crimea_River (Jun 8, 2020)

Interesting graphic on global deaths since January: Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020

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## Glider (Jun 8, 2020)

That is a very scary chart. If anyone out there still thinks it's bit like the flu, should be made to look at it

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## buffnut453 (Jun 8, 2020)

One of the things it really brought out for me was the rapid acceleration of cases in March. It illustrates quite well, I think, how COVID had the potential to overwhelm health systems as it rapidly went up the table from last place to first in just a few weeks....and that was with countries taking measures to prevent the spread. Imagine what it would have been like without social distancing!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 8, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> One of the things it really brought out for me was the rapid acceleration of cases in March. It illustrates quite well, I think, how COVID had the potential to overwhelm health systems as it rapidly went up the table from last place to first in just a few weeks....and that was with countries taking measures to prevent the spread. Imagine what it would have been like without social distancing!



You are about to find out, with places oike Florida, Texas and Alabama throwing out all restrictions.


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## at6 (Jun 8, 2020)

We're really going to find out with all of the protesters doing their thing.

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## Gnomey (Jun 8, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Interesting graphic on global deaths since January: Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020


Really highlights the issues!


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## Crimea_River (Jun 8, 2020)

I was surprised to see Parkinson's so high up the list. I have a good friend who has it.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 8, 2020)

I just hope we start protecting the elderly and immuno-compromised. Numbers show those group have significantly higher mortality. The Michigan website is currently being rework so the age data isn't readily available, but when I checked a few weeks ago, people age 70 or over accounted for over 90% of total deaths in the state.


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## Gnomey (Jun 8, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I was surprised to see Parkinson's so high up the list. I have a good friend who has it.


Lots of long term complications and morbidity from falls and Parkinson’s associated dementia.

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## gumbyk (Jun 8, 2020)

Well, we're officially covid free here in New Zealand - been about 17 days since our last new case, and the last active case was cleared yesterday.
No restrictions internally, just border controls, and the Government is asking people to record where they have been to contact trace if it resurfaces.

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## fubar57 (Jun 8, 2020)

Three days without a virus related death...https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-covid-19-update-june-8-1.5603508


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 8, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, we're officially covid free here in New Zealand - been about 17 days since our last new case, and the last active case was cleared yesterday.
> No restrictions internally, just border controls, and the Government is asking people to record where they have been to contact trace if it resurfaces.



And that is how it’s done. You inconvenience yourself for a temporary time, beat it, and move on. Meanwhile in the US...

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## gumbyk (Jun 8, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And that is how it’s done. You inconvenience yourself for a temporary time, beat it, and move on. Meanwhile in the US...


I'm just worried about the suicide epidemic that's going to follow with all of the job losses and company failures. We're a country of small businesses, and losing a business is like losing a family.
We don't seem to have a plan to deal with that.


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## wuzak (Jun 8, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Well, we're officially covid free here in New Zealand - been about 17 days since our last new case, and the last active case was cleared yesterday.
> No restrictions internally, just border controls, and the Government is asking people to record where they have been to contact trace if it resurfaces.



Meanwhile the number of active cases in Australia has dropped below 450. But we are starting to open up for activity, some states more than others. 

South Australia and the Northern Territory have 0 active cases, Tasmania has 2 active cases.


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## ThomasP (Jun 8, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 8
cases 28,224**, recovered 23,657, hospitalized 3,336, deaths 1,197**, tested 354,226*/**
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 210 per million
test rate 62.1 per thousand*/**
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 10,000 people/day, and testing is available to the general population in small numbers. Logistics for testing the general population is still a problem, but slowly becoming less so.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. During the today's COVID-19 update by the Minnesota governor, the director of MDH mentioned the possibility that Minnesota is entering the plateau stage (ie where the rate of spread is no longer increasing). The director said that it is too early to say for sure, but it looks promising.


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## ThomasP (Jun 8, 2020)

An Observation of People Concerning the Wearing of Masks.

Over the last week I have traveled outside the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area several times. Because most of my packages are in the medical category (ie involving hospitals, clinics, and individuals with medical conditions that require specialized medicines) I always wear my surgical quality mask when picking up and delivering said packages. I drove a total of just over 1000 miles during the last week, and (beyond the 2nd tier suburbs) the only places I saw people wearing a mask was at the hospitals and clinics, plus about 5 employees in Holiday gas stations.

The above in and of itself is kind of telling, but wait - there's more!

Not only was there a disregard of the value of wearing masks, I actually observed anti-mask/anti-mask wearer attitudes. I encountered bewilderment, resentment, contempt, and anger - directed at myself, because I was wearing a mask. I expected the disregard for mask wearing, and most people behaved the same as usual. But there were maybe 20-25 people in the general public that presented an attitude.

If I had an IQ less than a cucumber I might have had my feelings hurt, or been intimidated?


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## ThomasP (Jun 8, 2020)

No, unfortunately I am not joking (about the attitudes that is).


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## fubar57 (Jun 8, 2020)

At the mine, if we don't wear our masks in designated areas and on the buses and other transport vehicles its an automatic 7 day unpaid vacation and the way they've been firing people lately, it could be a lot longer


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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2020)

Within the metro area, a few cities require the wearing of a mask anytime the individual cannot social distance. In addition, many businesses enforce the wearing of masks (the new state guidelines require it). Outside the metro area, I know some businesses require the wearing of masks (eg meat packing/processing facilities) but there was no sign of masks in any of the 8 out-state non-medical businesses I visited.


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## Zipper730 (Jun 9, 2020)

I've managed to stay inside ordering in for... I guess late March? Other than walking around the garden -- which isn't huge, but there's more than 6 feet on all sides from any other house. Needless to say, I have masks and would wear them outside.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 9, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> I'm just worried about the suicide epidemic that's going to follow with all of the job losses and company failures. We're a country of small businesses, and losing a business is like losing a family.
> We don't seem to have a plan to deal with that.



Is there evidence this is guaranteed to happen?


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## Marcel (Jun 9, 2020)

I don’t believe in wearing masks in public. If anything it gives you a false sense of security.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 9, 2020)

This is going to make things interesting.

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says


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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I was surprised to see Parkinson's so high up the list. I have a good friend who has it.



So have I and mine has managed to improve his condition considerably by taking up Tai Chi. That does not mean it will work for everyone as _one size fits all _medicine is only preached by people with vested interests


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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Meanwhile the number of active cases in Australia has dropped below 450. But we are starting to open up for activity, some states more than others.
> 
> South Australia and the Northern Territory have 0 active cases, Tasmania has 2 active cases.



Queensland has kept the land borders closed but allows airlines in and on day two in came a person from Victoria who is infected. He spent a day spreading it in Brisbane then went to work in Bundaberg requiring 250 people to be tested. Bundy is less than two hours away from me and a tourist town. We are just off the highway north that the tourists take


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## Gnomey (Jun 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I don’t believe in wearing masks in public. If anything it gives you a false sense of security.


It has its role but in open spaces this is likely minimal.


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## fubar57 (Jun 9, 2020)

Had a guy in camp cough beside me....I felt it. A mask definitely would have stopped that


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 9, 2020)

Thats the thing that really ticks me off, just cover your damn mouth!

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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2020)

Yep - cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing is what is needed. If you are in a situation where you cannot use you hand/arm/elbow then wear a mask to protect the other people.

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## Marcel (Jun 9, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> It has its role but in open spaces this is likely minimal.


yeah, that’s what I think, too. I just hope that the people wearing masks will remember that keeping a distance is way more important.

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## Gnomey (Jun 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> yeah, that’s what I think, too. I just hope that the people wearing masks will remember that keeping a distance is way more important.


Indeed. That and good hand hygiene.

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## gumbyk (Jun 9, 2020)

Well, woke up with a sore throat yesterday, so I'm off for a test today....


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## fubar57 (Jun 9, 2020)

Good luck


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## buffnut453 (Jun 9, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Good luck



Amen.


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## gumbyk (Jun 9, 2020)

Well, that was a f*%king horrible experience.

When will I learn that when a nurse/doctor says "this won't be that bad" it translates into "this will be one of the most uncomfortable things you'll ever experience"

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## fubar57 (Jun 9, 2020)

Yikes


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## Crimea_River (Jun 9, 2020)

When I got mine, they didn't do the nasal brain tickle but just a throat swab. Even that was far enough back to get the gag reflex going.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 9, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> It has its role but in open spaces this is likely minimal.



In open spaces I don’t see the point either. Just keep your distance from others. In enclosed spaces with little chance to keep distance from people then I think it will reduce the risk.

I had to go into work for a meeting today that could not be performed virtually for instance, and everyone in the briefing room wore a mask. Despite company policy, it just makes sense.

Afterwards I had a physical therapy appointment. Both my therapist and myself wore a mask. Clinic policy, and it makes sense.

Same with grocery stores...

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## ThomasP (Jun 10, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 9
cases 28,523, recovered 24,221, hospitalized 3,441, deaths 1,217, tested 360,991
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 213.5 per million
test rate 63.3 per thousand


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## MiTasol (Jun 10, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> When I got mine, they didn't do the nasal brain tickle but just a throat swab. Even that was far enough back to get the gag reflex going.



You were lucky - in the hands of a sadist the 4x4 rough swawn plank they use with the mace head on it is definitely "uncomfortable"

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## Marcel (Jun 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> In open spaces I don’t see the point either. Just keep your distance from others. In enclosed spaces with little chance to keep distance from people then I think it will reduce the risk.
> 
> I had to go into work for a meeting today that could not be performed virtually for instance, and everyone in the briefing room wore a mask. Despite company policy, it just makes sense.
> 
> ...


It does when you are wearing an N95 mask I guess or never touch your mask and discard it regularly (say every 30 minutes).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> It does when you are wearing an N95 mask I guess or never touch your mask and discard it regularly (say every 30 minutes).



Any mask will reduce the amount of particles being spread in the air. If that were not the case, then surgeons would wear N95 masks instead of surgical masks.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2020)

In the scientific communities you will usually have differing sides, but..,

Widespread mask-wearing could prevent COVID-19 second waves: study


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## Marcel (Jun 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Any mask will reduce the amount of particles being spread in the air. If that were not the case, then surgeons would wear N95 masks instead of surgical masks.


Yes and a fork can hold a little water, but you won’t use it to eat your soup.

i don’t know where to start to explain this. A surgeon won’t have corona in the first place, neither will his assistants when they are operating. A surgeon will be very conscious about hygiene, washing hands at every opportunity. He’ll also be in a sterile environment which is very precisely cleaned as will his assistants be. Shall I go on? There is a night and day difference between a hospital and the outside road. Non N95 masks only have woven cloth, they will let micro aerosols through. The mask will hold bacteria from getting through, but bacteria are way bigger than a virus. And that’s still the next best thing, being a surgeal mask, I’ve not even started on the masks, or, god forbid, socks, scarves and handkerchieves that we have to wear, not being surgeons.

But something else. Will you cough or sneeze in your elbow while wearing a mask? Remember you’re not supposed to touch the mask, so no, you won’t or you’re doing it wrong. But your elbow will prevent more viruses to spread than your non-N95 mask.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yes and a fork can hold a little water, but you won’t use it to eat your soup.
> 
> *i don’t know where to start to explain this.A surgeon won’t have corona in the first place, neither will his assistants when they are operating. A surgeon will be very conscious about hygiene, washing hands at every opportunity. He’ll also be in a sterile environment which is very precisely cleaned as will his assistants be. Shall I go on? There is a night and day difference between a hospital and the outside road. Non N95 masks only have woven cloth, they will let micro aerosols through. The mask will hold bacteria from getting through, but bacteria are way bigger than a virus. And that’s still the next best thing, being a surgeal mask, I’ve not even started on the masks, or, god forbid, socks, scarves and handkerchieves that we have to wear, not being surgeons.*
> 
> *But something else. Will you cough or sneeze in your elbow while wearing a mask? Remember you’re not supposed to touch the mask, so no, you won’t or you’re doing it wrong. But your elbow will prevent more viruses to spread than your non-N95 mask.*



You can explain your point just fine. I’m not an idiot, and will understand what you are saying just fine.

Everything you said, I already am aware of anyhow. I still disagree with your stance. Walk down any given street, and how many people do you think will actually cover their mouths when the cough? I bet more than none will simply blast their germs into the air, and in that case a mask will help.

in fact I was at my office today for a bit. Saw two people at the coffee bar cough into thin air while looking at their phones.


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## Marcel (Jun 10, 2020)

I know you’re not an idiot Chris, don’t worry. And although this was an answer to your l I actually meant it more in general.

okay, we disagree. I still think we should focus on what really matters instead of running after something which is not half as agencies as most people seem to think.

so;
1. stay home if you can
2. Stay away from crowds
3. Keep a 1.5 to 2 meter distance
4. Wash your hands well with soap as much as possible
...
15. Wear a mask outside and make sure it’sa good one, not a sock or some other crazy cloth.

masks are not the wonder protection everybody seems to think.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I know you’re not an idiot Chris, don’t worry. And although this was an answer to your l I actually meant it more in general.
> 
> okay, we disagree. I still think we should focus on what really matters instead of running after something which is not half as agencies as most people seem to think.
> 
> ...



No one said masks are the wonder protection. In fact I don’t think anyone us saying that at all.

What is said is that the mask is one barrier, and when used in conjunction with other barriers can reduce the risk.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 10, 2020)

I wear a mask indoors because other people just cannot be trusted. Forum members excluded...of course.


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## at6 (Jun 10, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I wear a mask indoors because other people just cannot be trusted. Forum members excluded...of course.


That's because no one has figured out how to cough or sneeze through the internet.


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## Marcel (Jun 10, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No one said masks are the wonder protection. In fact I don’t think anyone us saying that at all.
> 
> What is said is that the mask is one barrier, and when used in conjunction with other barriers can reduce the risk.


As I said I highly doubt wearing masks will have any significant positive effect reducing the risks. But we disagree and let’s leave it at that.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I wear a mask indoors because other people just cannot be trusted. Forum members excluded...of course.



And I would agree with your thoughts here. I too don’t wear one outdoors. I just keep my distance, don’t touch my face, and wash my hands. But when I am indoors in a high density area where that is not possible, I wear a mask. It makes sense.


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## Zipper730 (Jun 10, 2020)

When I'm in the yard, I don't wear one as there's a lot of spacing available between my neighbors. I don't have a huge property, but enough for social distancing.

Now, if I went outside, I'd have a mask on and maintain 6-9 feet of spacing.


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## gumbyk (Jun 10, 2020)

Marcel said:


> As I said I highly doubt wearing masks will have any significant positive effect reducing the risks. But we disagree and let’s leave it at that.


For real-world efficacy, have a look at Japan, where mask wearing is routine if you're sick.
Alternatively, New Zealand didn't go through widespread mask-wearing, but had a strict lockdown.

Similar results, two totally different methods.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 10, 2020)

Best not to celebrate too early...

New Zealand drops Covid-19 restrictions after nation declared 'virus-free'

Now comes the rebuild. The airline is financially stuffed and the CEO warns of more job losses. Most of us are wondering how that can happen as staff numbers have been slashed pretty savagely. No more scenes like this, though, almost all our aircraft are back up and working. Then there is the little matter of unfair practices in letting staff go - the airline is being taken to court by the unions for unfair practices in at least one instance of staff shedding. It sometimes sucks working for an airline.





DSC_2488


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

Arizona calls for emergency plan as COVID-19 spikes after reopening


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## wuzak (Jun 11, 2020)

at6 said:


> That's because no one has figured out how to cough or sneeze through the internet.



Not so. 5G is known to spread viruses (according to some loonies)!

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## wuzak (Jun 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Arizona calls for emergency plan as COVID-19 spikes after reopening



I'm shocked!


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## ThomasP (Jun 11, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 10
cases 28,869**, recovered 24,675, hospitalized 3,482, deaths 1,236**, tested 369,795*/**
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 216.8 per million
test rate 64.9 per thousand*/**
*Minnesota now has the ability to test more than 10,000 people/day, and availability of tests to the general population
in increasing. Logistics for testing the general population is still a problem, but slowly becoming less so.
**The stay-at-home and shut down measures used by Minnesota have kept the rate of spread significantly below what it would have been without such measures. Based on the hospitalization and death rates for the last 30 days, the rate of spread is decreasing slightly with an approximate R factor of 1.023 generating a doubling of total cases every 30 days (vs the R factor of 1.035 from a month ago, which resulted in a doubling every 20 days). When we take into account the greatly increased testing numbers the rate of spread may actually be decreasing slightly.


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## ThomasP (Jun 11, 2020)

In the US, 9 out of 50 states are reporting a sudden increase in cases during the last week. 5 other states are seeing a continuing increase in cases.


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## at6 (Jun 11, 2020)

Exposure increases and so do the numbers. There's nothing to surprising about that. Wait until the numbers go up due to all of protest idiots out there.


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## Glider (Jun 11, 2020)

at6 said:


> Exposure increases and so do the numbers. There's nothing to surprising about that. Wait until the numbers go up due to all of protest idiots out there.


And those who plan to attend any large gatherings such as political conventions, sports meetings and so on


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 11, 2020)

But testing is also expanding as well so its not as clear cut as the media would like to portray.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> But testing is also expanding as well so its not as clear cut as the media would like to portray.





This not a media issue. Regardless of whether testing is more or not, the virus is still spreading. It’s not like the people would not be infected because testing did not occur.

All we are seeing is how pathetic our response to the virus has been.


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 11, 2020)

Again it depends. From what I understand If you are tested today and show you have antibodies present that would be a positive test marked as of today, even though you were sick 2 months ago.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

vikingBerserker said:


> Again it depends. From what I understand If you are tested today and show you have antibodies present that would be a positive test marked as of today, even though you were sick 2 months ago.



The understanding I got was that only a handful of states were doing that, and they have since stopped doing that.

Add to that the states who are not reporting cases in order to make their numbers look better. Georgia/Florida.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> This not a media issue. Regardless of whether testing is more or not, the virus is still spreading. It’s not like the people would not be infected because testing did not occur.
> 
> All we are seeing is how pathetic our response to the virus has been.


Here we're finding that positive tests are increasing at about the same rate as the rate of testing availability has increased, while the number of symptomatic cases and cases requiring treatment is declining. Death total stagnant for two weeks now at 55 statewide.
This suggests not so much increased spreading, as increased discovery of silent infections, now that voluntary testing is available.
Cheers,
Wes


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Here we're finding that positive tests are increasing at about the same rate as the rate of testing availability has increased, while the number of symptomatic cases and cases requiring treatment is declining. Death total stagnant for two weeks now at 55 statewide.
> This suggests not so much increased spreading, as increased discovery of silent infections, now that voluntary testing is available.
> Cheers,
> Wes



I fully expect death rates to decrease as case numbers go up initially. More people are being tested than those ending up in hospitals. That could change though over time, especially if the hospitals become overburdened.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I fully expect death rates to decrease as case numbers go up initially. More people are being tested than those ending up in hospitals. That could change though over time, especially if the hospitals become overburdened.


As of last night, we had one, O N E, hospitalized case, statewide. (630K population)
Haven't checked today, yet.
Cheers,
Wes


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> As of last night, we had one, O N E, hospitalized case, statewide. (630K population)
> Haven't checked today, yet.
> Cheers,
> Wes



Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, California, Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi and Utah are all seeing their hospitalizations spike

Arizona is at 76% ICU capacity now, up 49% from two weeks ago.

It is not a media spin. The US is failing to contain the virus.


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## Marcel (Jun 11, 2020)

We went from 1500 to 77 ICU patients in 4 weeks.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We went from 1500 to 77 ICU patients in 4 weeks.



That is good news.

I am sure there a lot of factors in the US cases including the average health of the US population.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That is good news.
> 
> I am sure there a lot of factors in the US cases including the average health of the US population.


And the average unruliness and contrariness of the US population.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And the average unruliness and contrariness of the US population.



I wasn’t going to go there...

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## at6 (Jun 11, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I wasn’t going to go there...


How can you not go there? You already live here.

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## gumbyk (Jun 11, 2020)

Well, I just got the all clear.

Didn't want to be the one guy who came back positive after the country finished lockdown.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 11, 2020)

Heartiest congrats! Delighted you're in the clear.


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## Gnomey (Jun 11, 2020)

Marcel said:


> As I said I highly doubt wearing masks will have any significant positive effect reducing the risks. But we disagree and let’s leave it at that.


If you have it, it prevents you spreading it if you don’t it’s not as effective in stopping you getting it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 11, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> If you have it, it prevents you spreading it if you don’t it’s not as effective in stopping you getting it.



Thank you!


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## ThomasP (Jun 12, 2020)

Hey vikingBerzerker,

re your post#2,567 "But testing is also expanding as well so its not as clear cut as the media would like to portray."

The CDC and individual state Departments of Health are currently using the *hospitalization rate* as the primary indicator of spread. This is due to the relative ratio of hospitalizations within a given demographic, which may vary between states, but gives a pretty good answer within each state as a whole. An increase in the rate of hospitalization indicates the minimum increase in rate of spread - regardless of the rate of testing. The increased rate of testing will indicate (historically) a different true ratio of cases to hospitalizations, as opposed to the minimum ratio. (I am not sure if I phrased this clearly?)


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## at6 (Jun 12, 2020)

I haven't been tested yet so I should study for it.

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## Marcel (Jun 12, 2020)

Okay, I give up. I’ll leave one last quote from an expert:


> There's been enough research done to be able to confidently say that masks wouldn't be able to stop the spread of infection, that they would only have a small effect on transmission," Cowling said. "We shouldn't be relying on masks to help us go back to normal."


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## ThomasP (Jun 12, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 11
cases [29,316]**, recovered 24,870, hospitalized 3,522, deaths 1,249**, tested 381,841*/**
fatality rate [4.3]%
mortality rate 219.1 per million
test rate [68] per thousand*/**

numbers in [ ] edited to correct reporting errors


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## ThomasP (Jun 12, 2020)

Hey Marcel,

I may be wrong here, but your last post leads me to believe that you and DerAdlerIstGelandet are arguing 2 slightly different things. As far as I know, *no one has said that wearing a mask will stop the spread of COVID-19*, only that it will reduce the rate at which it spreads under a given set of circumstances. The amount of reduction depends on the circumstances. From what I have read, wearing a mask will only reduce the rate of spread about 15% in typical circumstances. But, depending on the R factor, that reduction may be enough to significantly reduce the chance of overloading the healthcare system.

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## Marcel (Jun 12, 2020)

Yeah that’s right.

But what I really argue is that the slight benefit they possibly have doesn’t counter the disadvantages. I see people throwing away their possibly infected masks like they are cigarette-butts. You find them everywhere on the street here. I see people pulling down the masks in order to use their cellphone, in the mean time touching the possibly infected outside of their inadequate masks, increasing the amount of particles on their hands and smearing that on surfaces for transmission to others (surfaces are the main way of spreading cold- and influenza viruses anyway, not aerosols). These people go out even with symptoms, not keeping distance because they have a mask that 'will protect anyway'. These are just examples of the disadvantages and I believe they are more contributing to the spreading than really countering it.

The other thing I am arguing against is the promotion of self made masks or using other non-effective masks. I saw the Belgian government promoting masks made out of old socks for crying out loud. 95% of the air and moisture you breath will go right through or around those masks.

My conclusion: possibly in a highly disciplined society masks would help, *if* you could get the adequate ones, but not in this one.


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## ThomasP (Jun 12, 2020)

I wish I could argue against the lack of self discipline part of your argument, but I cannot - at least not relative to Minnesota. (sigh, reference my post#2,521)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Okay, I give up. I’ll leave one last quote from an expert:



Last sentence in your quote.

_We should not be relying on masks relying on masks to get back to normal_

Agreed, no one said masks can do that. For the last time...

It is only one barrier, in a system of barriers, that together can help reduce the risk. not a single person says it is the end all be all. Anyone can pick and choose data and info to support their argument one way or the other though.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 12, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yeah that’s right.
> 
> But what I really argue is that the slight benefit they possibly have doesn’t counter the disadvantages. I see people throwing away their possibly infected masks like they are cigarette-butts. You find them everywhere on the street here. I see people pulling down the masks in order to use their cellphone, in the mean time touching the possibly infected outside of their inadequate masks, increasing the amount of particles on their hands and smearing that on surfaces for transmission to others (surfaces are the main way of spreading cold- and influenza viruses anyway, not aerosols). These people go out even with symptoms, not keeping distance because they have a mask that 'will protect anyway'. These are just examples of the disadvantages and I believe they are more contributing to the spreading than really countering it.
> 
> ...



I disagree with you. If only half of the people do things correctly by wearing masks, social distancing, coughing in their arm, and washing their hands, they have reduced possible transmission. Especially considering the people you talk about probably don’t follow good hygiene with or without mask. I’m all about protecting my family, and my children, especially in a country with millions of neanderthals who have been brainwashed into thinking social distancing and common sense restrictions are BS because the virus is a political hoax.

Either way no point in this discussion anymore...


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## Marcel (Jun 12, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I disagree with you. If only half of the people do things correctly by wearing masks, *social distancing, coughing in there arm, and washing their hands*, they have reduced possible transmission. Especially considering the people you talk about probably don’t follow good hygiene with or without mask. I’m all about protecting my family, and my children, especially in a country with millions of neanderthals who have been brainwashed into thinking social distancing and common sense restrictions are BS because the virus is a political hoax.
> 
> Either way no point in this discussion anymore...


The bold part I think that's the point of the discussion. I would obviously give them another order in importance, but for the rest I agree on that. For the rest, let's rest the case indeed.


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## Zipper730 (Jun 12, 2020)

I remember being given a mask in January when I visited the doctor's office. At this point in time society wasn't on a lockdown, but I had a respiratory illness of sorts (who knew I'd be ahead of my time?). I was given a mask, and at a later date was told that such a mask doesn't actually stop you from getting the virus, but stops others from getting infected by you.

That said, if everybody's wearing such a mask, and this wasn't an N95 mask -- it'd still do some good because if everybody's wearing a mask, and this virus doesn't survive long outside the body, you just have to wait out the clock: It can't survive without a host (us), so if you can deprive it of any new hosts long enough -- it's gone for good.

Even if more people wear such a mask, it still provides a benefit, and the more people you can get to do this (I already put a hashtag on FB #WearTheFuckingMask), the better things will be.

BTW: Since I haven't been out of my house since this all started, I have not worn any mask except one case, where I was getting ready to head out of the house, except that it wasn't necessary. That said, since I was putting the mask on -- I clearly would have worn it outside the house. The fact that I wear glasses might also provide an added level of protection (it doesn't serve any other good!)


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 12, 2020)

Marcel, Adler, I agree with you both, and it gives me a headache (no cough though).

Re Florida: The Florida Department of Health in Bay County (DOH-Bay) received confirmation of four additional cases of COVID-19 including a 34-year-old male, a 31-year-old female, a 21-year-old female, and a 20-year-old female. Bay County’s total diagnosed COVID-19 cases now stands at 139, including six non-resident cases. DOH-Bay is conducting the contact investigation and working to identify and notify individuals who need to self-monitor for symptoms for 14 days. Contact investigations are a critical way for staff epidemiologists to track and prevent the spread of disease. Bay County’s overall COVID-19 positive testing rate is 3 percent. Of the 5,239 tests processed, 5,097 tests are negative. Four Bay County residents, or 3 percent of all positive Bay County cases, have died from COVID-19. A total of 15 Bay County residents, or 11 percent of all cases, have been hospitalized with COVID-19. Data is preliminary and subject to change based on public health investigations. During Phase 2, DOH-Bay will send news releases and text alerts Monday through Friday. Each Monday, we will catch up on any weekend data. The dashboard and reports will continue to be updated daily around 10 a.m. at FloridaHealthCOVID19.gov. Especially. 

Re: Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020
Recalling that figures can't lie but liars can figure: If somebody dies with both malaria and WuHanKungFlu, how do they count the death? I can't trust these graphs/charts, as the meaning of the numbers is not given. "Died with malaria and had covid antibodies" or "Died of heart failure but had Malaria also" get reported how? "Why did you die, check all that apply" doesn't show up in these charts. This rant applies also to the John Hopkins University dashboard I've slam-tongued before.

Marcel: "[A] fork can hold a little water, but you won’t use it to eat your soup. " Let's agree that I won't cook for you.

I'd go fishing again, but I need a bigger tank to put the fish in.


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## at6 (Jun 12, 2020)

If this arguing keeps up, I'm going to wrap all of you in bubble wrap so that I won't get sick.


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## wuzak (Jun 12, 2020)

*Cases in Tasmania *
New cases in past 24 hours 0
Total cases 226
*Active* *0*
Recovered 213
Deaths 13

* 0 hospital inpatients (0 in ICU)

*Laboratory tests * 
Laboratory tests completed in the past 24 hours 635
Total laboratory tests 39,981

Tasmania is generally divided into 3 regions - South, North, North-West.

The South is the biggest population region, having roughly 1/2 the state's population. The North is the next biggest, and the North-West the smallest of the three.

*Cases by Region*
South 45
North 29
North-West 149

(Must be some others!)

The second largest city in the North-West region, Burnie, has 64 cases. 
The city I live in, Clarence, has twice the population of Burnie but only 5 cases.

Most cases in Tasmania can be traced directly or through community transmission to the Ruby Princess. Thanks Gladys.

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 12
cases 29,795, recovered 25,028, hospitalized 3,557, deaths 1,274, tested 395,202
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 223.5 per million
test rate 69.3 per thousand


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## at6 (Jun 13, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Marcel: "[A] fork can hold a little water, but you won’t use it to eat your soup. " Let's agree that I won't cook for you.


If you cook like I do that's a good thing. It would be worse than the virus

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## MiTasol (Jun 13, 2020)

Lets not forget the other side of the equation.


If I am wearing a mask, and
I am asymptomatic, and 
I cough or sneeze 
the vast majority of the droplets are trapped and the rest only travel a fraction of the distance they would if I was NOT wearing a mask.

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## Dash119 (Jun 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yes and a fork can hold a little water, but you won’t use it to eat your soup.



If all you have is a fork to eat the soup, I would suggest that is better than not eating at all.

Highly inefficient but better than the alternative...

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## Dash119 (Jun 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> The other thing I am arguing against is the promotion of self made masks or using other non-effective masks. I saw the Belgian government promoting masks made out of old socks for crying out loud. 95% of the air and moisture you breath will go right through or around those masks.



Again, 5% is better than 0%. Ask my sister, a nurse, she will take 5% all day long.

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## Dash119 (Jun 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> But what I really argue is that the slight benefit they possibly have doesn’t counter the disadvantages. I see people throwing away their possibly infected masks like they are cigarette-butts. You find them everywhere on the street here. I see people pulling down the masks in order to use their cellphone, in the mean time touching the possibly infected outside of their inadequate masks, increasing the amount of particles on their hands and smearing that on surfaces for transmission to others (surfaces are the main way of spreading cold- and influenza viruses anyway, not aerosols). These people go out even with symptoms, not keeping distance because they have a mask that 'will protect anyway'. These are just examples of the disadvantages and I believe they are more contributing to the spreading than really countering it.



Most of the current research I am seeing suggests Covid-19 is less likely to spread through surface transmission and more likely to be spread via aerosol.

Frankly at this point I'm not sure anyone knows what is really going on, which argues the point that we should do everything we can to tamp down the spread. If some people don't follow safe practices that is not a good argument to discontinue those practices.

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## ThomasP (Jun 14, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 13
cases 30,172, recovered 25,620, hospitalized 3,581, deaths 1,283*, tested 407,992
fatality rate 4.3%*
mortality rate 225.1 per million
test rate 71.6 per thousand

*On the plus side:

As of the end of April, approximately 80% of Minnesota's COVID-19 deaths occurred among cases originating in Minnesota's extended care and assisted living facilities. Over the last 2 months Minnesota has exerted great effort to control the outbreaks in these facilities. Beginning on or about 25 May the efforts appear to have begun paying off. As the case rate among the more vulnerable elderly living in extended care and assisted living facilities has decreased, so has the overall fatality rate, falling from a high of 7.6% on 26 April to a steady 4.3% over the last 2 weeks.

On the minus side:

Minnesota has seen an uptick in cases and deaths among people less than 60 years of age. Although the overall numbers are still small (accounting for only 7% of the fatalities), approximately 15% of these fatalities had no known underlying health issues. This is drastically different compared to the previous 2 1/2 months, where the fatalities without underlying health conditions accounted for only 1.5%.

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## at6 (Jun 14, 2020)

If I wear the mask, I am not prevented from catching the Chinese virus. Your wearing a mask reduces my chance of being infected. The life you save by wearing one might be mine.

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## Vincenzo (Jun 14, 2020)

Italy report, 14th June 5pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 236,989, +1,991, deaths 34,345, +446, recovered 176,370, +10,533, active cases 26,274, -8,988, tests 4,620,718, +384,183, people tested 2,846,621, +219,433
fatality rate 14.5% (+0.1)
mortality rate 569 per million (+7)
test rate 76.6 per thousand (+6.5)
positive rate 8.3% (-0.6)
test rate this week 6,369 per million (+437)
positive rate this week 0.9% (-0.1)
new case rate this week 33 per million (=)

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## Bernhart (Jun 14, 2020)

not the Chinese virus, Covid-19

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 14, 2020)

Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.

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## Dash119 (Jun 15, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.



I was going to rate this as Dumb, but that would be rude so I will just Dislike it.

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## MiTasol (Jun 15, 2020)

Been too busy to check my promed mails since mid last week.
Here is an interesting report from Switzerland - it appears to have 10.6 undiagnosed cases for every confirmed case 
_we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11.6 infections in the community._

Equally interesting is _those older than 65 years (RR, 0.50 [0.28-0.78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. _Maybe Gnomey can translate that into simple English.


[2] Switzerland (Geneva) serosurvey
Date: Thu 11 Jun 2020
Source: The Lancet [edited]
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31304-0/fulltext>


Citation: Stringhini S, Wisniak A, Piumatti G, et al. Seroprevalence
of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland
(SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study. Lancet. Epub 11 Jun 2020.
<https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31304-0>

Summary
------
Background: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically
attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing
strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation.
Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method
for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the
epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2
antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the
epidemic.

Methods: The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former
participants of the Bus Sante study [an annual health examination
survey of a representative sample of the population of the canton] and
their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly
serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous
population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5
years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG
antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated
seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into
account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's
population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the
study.

Findings: Between 6 Apr 2020 and 9 May 2020, we enrolled 2766
participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution
similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the 1st week, we estimated
a seroprevalence of 4.8% (95% CI, 2.4-8.0; n = 341). The estimate
increased to 8.5% (5.9-11.4; n = 469) in the 2nd week, 10.9%
(7.9-14.4; n = 577) in the 3rd week, 6.6% (4.3-9.4; n = 604) in the
4th week, and 10.8% (8.2-13.9; n = 775) in the 5th week. Individuals
aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.11-0.63]) and
those older than 65 years (RR, 0.50 [0.28-0.78]) had a significantly
lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After
accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every
reported confirmed case, there were 11.6 infections in the community.

Interpretation: These results suggest that most of the population of
Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite
the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical
cases over less than 2.5 months in the population of half a million
people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated
with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from
coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the
population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed
for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared
with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries
considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

[It is interesting to see that the estimated uncaptured rate of the
surveillance system is 11.6 -- so for each reported case there are
11.6 additional infected individuals -- in keeping with the estimated
range of 10 to 20 uncaptured infections per reported case. The survey
population is described as: "The SEROCoV-POP study is a
population-based study of former participants of the Bus Sante study
and their household members. The Bus Sante study is a yearly
representative stratified sample of 500 men and 500 women from the
general population of the canton of Geneva. Eligible individuals were
aged 20-74 years, identified through an annual residential list
established by the local government." -- providing somewhat more
validity to the results as representative of the population of the
Canton of Geneva. Interestingly, there was only one positive child in
the 5- to 9-year-old age-group, in a household where there was a
positive adult case, consistent with the observation of children being
less affected. The authors mentioned that there was household
clustering, but there were 21 (17.1%) that had at least one positive
household member. - Mod.MPP]

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## ThomasP (Jun 15, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 14
cases 30,471, recovered 26,090, hospitalized 3,610, deaths 1,288, tested 417,710
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 226 per million
test rate 73.3 per thousand


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## Zipper730 (Jun 15, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Chinese Corona Virus, causing the Wu Han Kung Flu.


I would have went with "Kung Flu". If this things ever dies down, we can change it to "Kung Flu: The Legend Continues"

Disclaimer
Since you need one on everything these days, this is not meant to be considered in anyway insulting to: Chinese people, the People's Republic of China, people of Asian descent and people who like Chinese food, or additionally, those that were fans of Kung Fu: The Legend Continues...

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 15, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Disclaimer
> Since you need one on everything these days, this is not meant to be considered in anyway insulting to: Chinese people, the People's Republic of China, people of Asian descent and people who like Chinese food, or additionally, those that were fans of Kung Fu: The Legend Continues.


Insult is determined in the eyes of the recipient, not the intentions of the perpetrator, making disclaimers irrelevant. You have just insulted everyone in your disclaimer and then some: easily a quarter of the world's population, and the true Master Race to come. As a small minority in the coming turbulent world, we can no longer afford that sort of cultural arrogance. Tread lightly, my friend!

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## pgeno71 (Jun 15, 2020)

"People's Republic"... is that an oxymoron?

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## wuzak (Jun 16, 2020)

I see New Zealand has a couple of cases, after having got down to 0.

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## at6 (Jun 16, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I see New Zealand has a couple of cases, after having got down to 0.


Even so, they have a better control over it than almost anyone else. Besides the have a hot PM.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 16, 2020)

at6 said:


> Besides the have a hot PM.


Hot? You mean as in stolen property?

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## rochie (Jun 16, 2020)

Wow quite a few racist overtones emerging in this thread

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## wuzak (Jun 16, 2020)

at6 said:


> Even so, they have a better control over it than almost anyone else. Besides the have a hot PM.



I believe those cases were imported as well.


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## gumbyk (Jun 16, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I believe those cases were imported as well.


Yeah, people who came into the country, and because of compassionate reasons didn't complete the 14 days quarantine. For some reason, that also meant that they didn't have to have testing....


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> Wow quite a few racist overtones emerging in this thread


Call it racist if you will, but a generation or two hence, Asians will dominate the world, economically, culturally, and politically.

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## at6 (Jun 16, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hot? You mean as in stolen property?


No. as in she's absolutely beautiful.


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## at6 (Jun 16, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Call it racist if you will, but a generation or two hence, Asians will dominate the world, economically, culturally, and politically.


That is the intent of Beijing and always will be. It must be considered where the last viruses have come from. Swine Flu, Bird Flu, and now this one which is more deadly than any of the others.

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## Gnomey (Jun 16, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I see New Zealand has a couple of cases, after having got down to 0.


2 people who travelled from the UK to NZ for a funeral...


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## gumbyk (Jun 16, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> 2 people who travelled from the UK to NZ for a funeral...


And we'll continue to get these cases. Although we've closed our borders, we can't keep NZ citizens out.
Yes, give compassionate exemptions to the quarantine, but why did they not do testing before letting them go on their way? I got my results back in a little over 24 hours.

And apparently they weren't going to the funeral, just visiting a family member, who, I assume was dying.


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## ThomasP (Jun 16, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 15
cases 30,693, recovered 26,609, hospitalized 3,630, deaths 1,304*, tested 422,922
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 228.8 per million
test rate 74.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, June 16
cases 30,882, recovered 27,006, hospitalized 3,658, deaths 1,313*, tested 429,145
fatality rate 4.3%
mortality rate 230.4 per million
test rate 75.3 per thousand

*The system that Minnesota uses to report the COVID-19 statistics listed above has a lag in it of upto 3 days in some cases. An example is over the weekend when there is reduced staffing for testing logistics and processing. This lag is represented in the above reported number of deaths for June 15 (originally 6 deaths, edited to 16) and 16 (currently 9 deaths, not yet including additional probables), with an additional 31 deaths probably due to COVID-19 that have not yet had their tests processed. These additional deaths are sometimes edited into the original number, but are usually included over the next 2-3 days. Hence there is usually a low death rate reported for the first 2 days of the work week and a higher number for days 3&4, causing a weekly mini-wave pattern.


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## ThomasP (Jun 16, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota report, June 16

The rate of spread for Minnesota appears to have reached a plateau (at least temporarily), and we may be on the downward side of the 'curve'. The average rate of new cases (even with the increased rate of testing) has remained about the same over the last 2 1/2 weeks, and the average rate of new hospitalizations has been decreasing steadily.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 16, 2020)

rochie said:


> Wow quite a few racist overtones emerging in this thread



Like what? Remembering out loud where this virus came from? That's "racist" only in your own heads. I've nothing against Chinese people.  Nobody here has spoken (to my recollection) against the Chinese people. 

The CCP is another matter.


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## gumbyk (Jun 16, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Like what? Remembering out loud where this virus came from? That's "racist" only in your own heads. I've nothing against Chinese people. Nobody here has spoken (to my recollection) against the Chinese people.
> 
> The CCP is another matter.


"Wuhan Kung Flu" is a bit more than racist overtones....

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## Crimea_River (Jun 16, 2020)

And saying the NZ PM is "hot". What, are we in high school now?

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 16, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> "Wuhan Kung Flu" is a bit more than racist overtones....


I disagree, emphatically.
As with "Chinese Corona Virus", "Wuhan" remembers whence it arose, and does not name nor suggest a race, for emphasis positive or negative. 
"Kung Flu" is a pun/malaprop. 
Methinks the Princess of PC doth protest too much.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 16, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> And saying the NZ PM is "hot". What, are we in high school now?


Sometimes I wonder if some of us "auld fahts" aren't regressing a little.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 16, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> I disagree, emphatically.
> As with "Chinese Corona Virus", "Wuhan" remembers whence it arose, and does not name nor suggest a race, for emphasis positive or negative.
> "Kung Flu" is a pun/malaprop.
> Methinks the Princess of PC doth protest too much.


And I disagree emphatically with you. Wuhan is where WE first became aware of it. It may have arisen there, or in some weapons lab somewhere, or in a southeast Asian jungle or Siberian forest or Mongolian bat cave. The jury is still out.
Methinks the Princess of PC doth protest in too soft a voice, as too many seem not to hear, and need to.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 16, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> It may have arisen there, or in some


Wuhan in Hubei is all I've been able to find as the first point of infection. If you have better data, please share. If what you have is speculation for the purpose of synthetic assertion, it's wasted air/electrons.


XBe02Drvr said:


> Methinks the Princess of PC doth protest in too soft a voice, as too many seem not to hear, and need to.


I do not have any such need.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 16, 2020)

Does that mean every person that uses the term MERS is being anti-Semitic?


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 17, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Does that mean every person that uses the term MERS is being anti-Semitic?


To pick nits, anti-semitic usually connotes anti-Hebrew (now anti-Jew); MERS affected mostly Arab peoples in the Middle East. I don't know of any Israeli, or of any Jewish, patient/victim of the disease.
To pick another nit, the Arab people are most descendants of Shem, and so are Semitic people (that being the origin of the term Semitic).


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## at6 (Jun 17, 2020)

It must be remembered that during the Middle Ages when most of Europe was being ravaged by the Plague, the Jews were the only ones not being effected as much because they kept their homes and bodies clean. It did lead to some people becoming Anti-semitic since many of the suvivors mistakenly thought that Jewish people had something to do with the disease. It is even more important with this virus to practice good hygiene, social distancing, and mask wearing if we wish to live.Here in California the infection rate is still rising and I'm still keeping myself in basic lock down to stay healthy.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> To pick nits, anti-semitic usually connotes anti-Hebrew (now anti-Jew); MERS affected mostly Arab peoples in the Middle East. I don't know of any Israeli, or of any Jewish, patient/victim of the disease.
> To pick another nit, the Arab people are most descendants of Shem, and so are Semitic people (that being the origin of the term Semitic).



Yes, I know how it is commonly used and I know its original meaning which included both Jews and/or Arabs. Hence, my question about a disease named after a region of the world (Middle East) populated by people that speak Semitic languages. Does the name MERS demean or oppress these people? Does the name Lyme Disease demean or oppress the people of Connecticut? How about West Nile Virus or other diseases named after places where the pathogens were identified, are they racist?


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## rednev (Jun 17, 2020)

Before this thread drifts to far a question for gnomey .
Have any of the much touted potential miracle drugs lived up to there media hype in any noticeable way or are clinical outcomes still about the same as at the start ?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2020)

Suggestion:

Everyone get on topic.


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## Dash119 (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Like what? Remembering out loud where this virus came from? That's "racist" only in your own heads. I've nothing against Chinese people. Nobody here has spoken (to my recollection) against the Chinese people.
> 
> The CCP is another matter.



While it may not be "racist", I am quite sure it is offensive to some Chinese people to refer to it as the "Chinese Corona Virus", as it is to me. If you were to refer to Covid-19 as the "CCP Corona Virus" or the "Asian Corona Virus", it would be easier to accept your comments.

We did not refer to the 1995/1996 Hantavirus outbreak as the "U.S. Hantavirus" or the "New Mexico Hantavirus". MERS also refers to a region, the Middle East, not a specific country or group of people. The same applies to the "West Nile Virus", a region, not a country or specific group of people. And while the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 is sometimes referred to as the "Spanish Flu", it got that name not because Spain was the origin, but because that country was very successful at controlling its spread.

Additionally, labeling a slur as a malaprop/pun, or adding a "Disclaimer" to it, is intellectually dishonest at best...

If this is what you refer to as being overly Politically Correct, I plead guilty. But I make no apologies. I always just thought of it as respectful dialog between several Human Beings.

Regards,

Kim

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 17, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> of people. And while the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 is sometimes referred to as the "Spanish Flu", it got that name not because Spain was the origin, but because that country was very successful at controlling its spread.


No it got that name because spanish newspapers reported freely about it. Being neutral it had a free press un like most european countries.

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## wuzak (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Wuhan in Hubei is all I've been able to find as the first point of infection. If you have better data, please share. If what you have is speculation for the purpose of synthetic assertion, it's wasted air/electrons.



There were reports that deaths in France in November (or earlier?) that have now been attributed to Covid 19, around the same time as the outbreak in Wuhan.


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## rochie (Jun 17, 2020)

wuzak said:


> There were reports that deaths in France in November (or earlier?) that have now been attributed to Covid 19, around the same time as the outbreak in Wuhan.


There have been a few cases here of covid like symptoms very early

The strange case of the choir that coughed in January


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 17, 2020)

rochie said:


> There have been a few cases here of covid like symptoms very early
> 
> The strange case of the choir that coughed in January


Point of contact: A friend of a member who had just returned from WUHAN.


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## rochie (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Point of contact: A friend of a member who had just returned from WUHAN.


Yes but 3 months before there was officially a case of covid over here so if this was covid 19 when did it really appear in Wuhan ?


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## pgeno71 (Jun 17, 2020)

rochie said:


> Yes but 3 months before there was officially a case of covid over here so if this was covid 19 when did it really appear in Wuhan ?



I'd bet that the evidence or people that could answer that question have disappeared.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 17, 2020)

rochie said:


> Yes but 3 months before there was officially a case of covid over here so if this was covid 19 when did it really appear in Wuhan ?


"Yes but" is a broad denial of what was said before.
The article itself declares that the first person with Kung Flu symptoms had just returned from Wuhan. Per the article, that was in January 2020, two months (not 3) before the first confirmed case in England. This CCP virus was known to the CCP existing in Wuhan back in November. There are intimations that there are known records of this appearing months earlier in Wuhan, but I can't put them in our text stream for lack of precision. 

So, yes, this is the Wuhan Kung Flu, and your dislike/disagree/disapproval changes nothing.

If you can find evidence suggesting this is really the Botswana Monkey Flu, or from someplace else, please present.


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## at6 (Jun 17, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I'd bet that the evidence or people that could answer that question have disappeared.


That would be because they knew when the virus actually started.


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## rochie (Jun 17, 2020)

I think I'll just keep away from this thread as you seem to be spoiling for an argument.


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## gumbyk (Jun 17, 2020)

rochie said:


> I think I'll just keep away from this thread as you seem to be spoiling for an argument.


Yep, I'm about to stop feeding the troll too.


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## swampyankee (Jun 17, 2020)

Use of the term "Chinese" somewhat implies that it's a deliberate product, a conclusion to which all available evidence, including detailed studies of the virus' genome, is to the contrary.

The source of the virus is currently uncertain, although the first major outbreak was in Wuhan, it's not certain that's where the virus originated. Corona viruses are not that uncommon; see Taxonomy browser (Coronaviridae)

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2020)

Everyone, let’s dial it down a bit ok?


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## Dash119 (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> The article itself declares that the first person with Kung Flu symptoms had just returned from Wuhan. Per the article, that was in January 2020, two months (not 3) before the first confirmed case in England. This *CCP virus* was known to the CCP existing in Wuhan back in November.



First, thank you for not using the aforementioned term for the virus, I appreciate the courtesy.

Second, I did not read the article but I'm curious to know if it referred to Covid-19 as "Kung Flu", or did you interject that term yourself?




TheMadPenguin said:


> "Kung Flu" is a pun/malaprop.





TheMadPenguin said:


> So, yes, this is the Wuhan Kung Flu, and your dislike/disagree/disapproval changes nothing.
> 
> If you can find evidence suggesting this is really the Botswana Monkey Flu, or from someplace else, please present.



Third, I assumed your original use of this pun/malaprop was intended to be humorous, and yet your tone here appears to be quite serious...

Fourth, unless the origin of Covid-19 moves the ball forwards in terms of how we address the current outbreak, I don't understand the need to label it with any origin. Is there some concern that someone will forget where the outbreak fist occurred?

If the Scientific Community can beneficially expand our collective knowledge about Covid-19 by examining the origin of the disease so be it. But I think the consensus so far is that Covid-19 occured naturally, it was not created in a lab. And if we did in fact discover that Covid-19 was a Biological Weapon, what is our response? If we can determine that the CCP released the virus on purpose, do we retaliate with some type of WMD? What if Covid-19 was a Biological Weapon, but it was unleashed by accident, what is our response?

Should the CCP have been more open at the beginning of the outbreak? Yes. Would that have prevented it from becoming a Pandemic? Not likely. This focus on the origin of the virus, feels like we are putting down the fire hoses while fighting the fire, to call the arson investigator...

Regards,

Kim


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## Gnomey (Jun 17, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> And we'll continue to get these cases. Although we've closed our borders, we can't keep NZ citizens out.
> Yes, give compassionate exemptions to the quarantine, but why did they not do testing before letting them go on their way? I got my results back in a little over 24 hours.
> 
> And apparently they weren't going to the funeral, just visiting a family member, who, I assume was dying.


Yes I was incorrect in this matter. I think the person in question then passed away hence my comment re. Funeral. 

Apparently one of them was showing symptoms before flying but put it down to an existing condition. Not sure how they were let on the plane if this was the case.


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## gumbyk (Jun 17, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Yes I was incorrect in this matter. I think the person in question then passed away hence my comment re. Funeral.
> 
> Apparently one of them was showing symptoms before flying but put it down to an existing condition. Not sure how they were let on the plane if this was the case.


Not sure how they were let out of quarantine without having a test either. The government is having all sorts of difficult questions asked of them at the moment. It seems that almost no-one was being tested as they should have been.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 17, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> but put it down to an existing condition


This is not hard... the symptoms are not unique.
I got a questionnaire including "muscle pains, joint pains, weakness, [and] trouble sleeping". These were answered in the affirmative.
They then ask "how many days" I've had these symptoms. I answer "above 5000".

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## wuzak (Jun 17, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> So, yes, this is the Wuhan Kung Flu, and your dislike/disagree/disapproval changes nothing.



It cannot be the "Wuhan Kung Flu" because it is a coronavirus, not an influenza virus.

The term is racist, not because it references Wuhan, because it is a word play on a racial stereotype.

Perhaps the correct name for the virus should be used - SARS-CoV-2 or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2020)

Ok, everyone lets get this back on track.

No one has to have the last word on this, move on.

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## Zipper730 (Jun 17, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Perhaps the correct name for the virus should be used - SARS-CoV-2 or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.


I prefer SARS-CoV-2. Or just SCV-2


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## Dash119 (Jun 17, 2020)

My apologies to all.

I have been referring to the Virus as Covid-19, when in fact the Virus is SARS-CoV-2.

Covid-19 is the illness that results from the exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.


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## at6 (Jun 18, 2020)

What ever one calls it, now the US death toll is expected to be 200,000+ by October 1. Locally, the infection rate and death toll is still going up. I'm not going to try returning the "old" way of doing things until the infection rate is under control.


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## ThomasP (Jun 18, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 17
cases 31,296, recovered 27,404, hospitalized 3,658, deaths 1,325, tested 448,587
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 232.5 per million
test rate 78.7 per thousand


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## Lucky13 (Jun 18, 2020)

*Spanish flu:*
_A likely misnomer, the Spanish flu is so named because Spain is where media reports of the outbreak first emerged. As one of the few countries to remain neutral in World War I, its press was not censored and therefore able to report on the outbreak without fear of affecting public morale.
Since nations under media blackout could only read about the illness from Spanish sources, it became known as "the Spanish Flu" in May 1918. Its actual origin is still debated with France, China, Britain and the US all nominated as possible sources._

*Zika virus: *
_The virus was first identified in the Zika valley, in central Africa, in 1947 and is spread by infected mosquitoes in the Aedes genus.
Its greatest risk is associated with birth defects, when an expectant mother becomes infected with the virus._

*Ebola:*
_One of the deadliest infections, Ebola virus disease (EVD) was discovered in 1976 when two consecutive outbreaks of fatal haemorrhagic fever occurred in different parts of central Africa.
The first occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) in a village near the Ebola river._

*Hendra virus:*
_A rare emerging zoonosis (a disease that can be transmitted to humans from animals), Hendra virus (HeV) infection can cause severe and often fatal illness in both horses and humans.
HeV was identified during the first recorded outbreak of the disease in the Brisbane suburb of Hendra in 1994._

*SARS:*
_Identified in 2003, the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) coronavirus, or SARS-CoV, is thought to be an animal virus that originated from an animal reservoir, perhaps bats, that spread to other animals (civet cats) and first infected humans in Guangdong province, southern China, in 2002._

*Swine flu:*
_The 2009 H1N1 influenza virus was first detected in people in the US in April 2009.
This virus was originally referred to as "swine flu" because laboratory testing showed that its gene segments were similar to influenza viruses that were most recently identified in — and known to circulate among — pigs._

*MERS:*
_Middle East Respiratory Syndrome is an illness caused by a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) known as MERS-CoV.
Health officials first reported the disease in Saudi Arabia in September 2012. Later investigations identified the first known cases of MERS to have occurred in Jordan in April 2012._

*Covid-19:*
_The first case of the 2019 novel coronavirus was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the virus named SARS-CoV-2 and, as previously noted, is shorthand for 'coronavirus disease 2019'._


I fully expect that the next virus that'll pop up, will get a weird name, instead for being named after from where it originates.
If nothing else, it'll prove one thing...._political correctness!_
Not naming viruses after where they're first discovered is progressive...._my hairy arse_....well then, rename Spanish, Ebola, Zika, Hendra!

People are, have become weak!


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## Marcel (Jun 18, 2020)

I think 

 DerAdlerIstGelandet
asked to leave it alone and I agree. So stop it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 18, 2020)

at6 said:


> What ever one calls it, now the US death toll is expected to be 200,000+ by October 1. Locally, the infection rate and death toll is still going up. I'm not going to try returning the "old" way of doing things until the infection rate is under control.



They have been easing restrictions here for weeks, and healthcare officials have been warning that rates and hospitalizations are going up. 2 days ago the county government lifted all restrictions as if there was no virus at all. I don’t see this ending well.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 18, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I think
> 
> DerAdlerIstGelandet
> asked to leave it alone and I agree. So stop it.



I feel like I am talking to a brick wall...


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## fubar57 (Jun 18, 2020)

Our camp went from Defcon 3 or whatever they call it back to 2. This was because the guy who tested positive while on his days off and away from camp has been cleared. What does it mean? Absolutely nothing. Social distancing, masks, following arrows and standing on markers are still in effect. I just want my condiments back

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## Zipper730 (Jun 18, 2020)

Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Looking at these numbers, the mortality rate for NY, which might still be leading the country is around 1.35% based on revised statistics.


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## Lucky13 (Jun 18, 2020)

With all these gatherings and what not, I'm expecting a 2.0 version in a near future....

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## buffnut453 (Jun 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I feel like I am talking to a brick wall...



Sorry...were you saying something? 😊

I'll get my coat.

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## Zipper730 (Jun 18, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> With all these gatherings and what not, I'm expecting a 2.0 version in a near future....


Yeah, they're actually planning to open the pool where I live: I went out a few days ago. While I was out I had a mask and gloves at the ready if I was to leave the car. Since my vision sucks, I wear glasses -- that said, I wasn't driving the car -- but it's nice to see right. As an additional precautionary, I did have the A/C to recirculate, however low the odds.

Either way I noticed about 2/3 people were wearing masks. The lack of vigilance reminds me of the same problem that occurs with untreated strep-throat: They give you penicillin, amoxycillin to kill the strep. They tell you to complete the whole bottle -- while many actually follow orders, there's always that small percentage that figure "I feel better, I don't need anymore of this", then stop taking it. If it hasn't killed all the strep, it grows back and they'll get sick all over again: The best part is that it now might need a new antibiotic to treat it (provided you're not the index patient for a new superbug).


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 18, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Sorry...were you saying something? 😊


Never mind him, he talks to walls.

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## Lucky13 (Jun 18, 2020)

The legendary, mythical....Wall Whisperer!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 18, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Never mind him, he talks to walls.



And you’re the brick wall.


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## ThomasP (Jun 18, 2020)

A 1.35% fatality rate would generate ~4,468,000 deaths if everyone in the US contracted COVID-19 (US current population ~331,000,000).

For anyone not already familiar with the numbers, this is ~13.5x the death rate of the 'normal' influenza ('normal' influenza death rate being 0.1%).

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 18, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And you’re the brick wall.


If you looked at the junk I own, you'd call me a brick-a-brack wall. And I'd plead guilty as charged, and proud as hell.


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## ThomasP (Jun 19, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 18
cases 31,675, recovered 27,566, hospitalized 3,718, deaths 1,344, tested 460,879
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 235.8 per million
test rate 80.9 per thousand


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## at6 (Jun 19, 2020)

There over 3000 cases our county with somewhere around 800 recoveries 60+ deaths. We're seeing a spike in the infection rate and I'm still staying on my own lock down.


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## fubar57 (Jun 19, 2020)

One week, no deaths. One in the last 13 days
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-coronavirus-update-june-19-1.5620197


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 19, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> One week, no deaths. One in the last 13 days
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-coronavirus-update-june-19-1.5620197



Must be nice...


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## fubar57 (Jun 19, 2020)

We listened to our doctor.....for the most part

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## nuuumannn (Jun 20, 2020)

at6 said:


> What ever one calls it, now the US death toll is expected to be 200,000+ by October 1.



Astounding. Perhaps it should be called the USA virus, since regardless of where it started, America is doing its damnedest to perpetuate it.


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## Lucky13 (Jun 20, 2020)

....at least you don't have the same spineless, incompetent, useless leadership as we do in Sweden! 😉😆😂😢😥😭

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 20, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Astounding. Perhaps it should be called the USA virus, since regardless of where it started, America is doing its damnedest to perpetuate it.



We just love “winning”...

USA, USA, USA!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 20, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> ....at least you don't have the same spineless, incompetent, useless leadership as we do in Sweden! 😉😆😂😢😥😭



You have got to be trolling...

We lead the world in that as well at the moment.

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## Lucky13 (Jun 20, 2020)

Well my dear friend, they've must have taken, or skipped the same classes! 🙈🙉🙊😉😆😂


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## gumbyk (Jun 20, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> ....at least you don't have the same spineless, incompetent, useless leadership as we do in Sweden! 😉😆😂😢😥😭


My understanding was that the Swedish constitution didn't allow the government to introduce a lock-down.


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## Lucky13 (Jun 20, 2020)

I think that might be correct, but when they're saying:

"The virus won't hit Sweden that hard...."

....and:

"The virus won't reach Sweden!" 

....you begin to wonder if they're capable of dressing themself in the morning! 

I could go on, but then you'd get nightmares! 😉😆😂

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 20, 2020)

Oh no! TheMadPenguin disagreed with my post! What will I do?????

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 20, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> I think that might be correct, but when they're saying:
> 
> "The virus won't hit Sweden that hard...."
> 
> ...



That is all the same shit we heard here too from our leadership. The response across the board from the top in DC down to the state level has been a joke at best.

It won’t hit the US...

There will be very few cases...

It will be gone within a few weeks...

Our response has been great and tremendous....

Meanwhile 120,000 deaths later.

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## Lucky13 (Jun 20, 2020)

I guess that you and I could say a few things, but....this _is _a family friendly forum, right? 😉😆😂🍻

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 20, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> I guess that you and I could say a few things, but....this _is _a family friendly forum, right? 😉😆😂🍻



And we would not want to offend any snowfla...

Oh I will just stop. 

But really, it is impossible anyhow without breaking forum politics rules.

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## nuuumannn (Jun 20, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You have got to be trolling...
> 
> We lead the world in that as well at the moment.



<Kellyanne Conway has entered the chat>

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## at6 (Jun 21, 2020)

Oh come on now. Kellyanne is almost sexy. Hell. Did I just say that? I've been without a woman for far too long.

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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> ....at least you don't have the same spineless, incompetent, useless leadership as we do in Sweden! 😉😆😂😢😥😭



The Australian Federal government is giving Sweden some competition. The state of Victoria has experienced its fifth day in a row of new coronavirus cases in the double digits, with 19 new cases today and 25 yesterday and Prime Minister Moronson and his cabinet are still saying the other states must open their state borders.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> The Australian Federal government is giving Sweden some competition.



Your umpteenth Prime Minister in as many years wants an open border policy with eNZed, but Cinders has said not until Australia gets coronavirus under control. I agree, as much as I like going there and look forward to such a thing.


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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Your umpteenth Prime Minister in as many years wants an open border policy with eNZed, but Cinders has said not until Australia gets coronavirus under control. I agree, as much as I like going there and look forward to such a thing.



Yep, she and Anna Alphabet here in Qld have the right idea, tho stupidly Anna did let the airlines fly interstate pax in for a couple of days. Day 2 bought in new cases, a bit like NZ with the two Brits.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> a bit like NZ with the two Brits.



Yup, someone stupidly dropped the ball there. It's too easy to get complacent at this time and these are signs of that. It's not over yet.

It used to make me cringe how commentators here in Kiwiland used to look to Qld as a reason why we should go to Level Three when we were in Level Four, but the reality that should have been addressed was that if Qld had gone to level Four for as long as us, there might have been even fewer deaths.


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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Yup, someone stupidly dropped the ball there. It's too easy to get complacent at this time and these are signs of that. It's not over yet.
> 
> It used to make me cringe how commentators here in Kiwiland used to look to Qld as a reason why we should go to Level Three when we were in Level Four, but the reality that should have been addressed was that if Qld had gone to level Four for as long as us, there might have been even fewer deaths.



Complacency is the cause of many if not most accidents and some idiots, even in aviation, promote it. Gidday Qantas, I am looking at you.

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## ThomasP (Jun 21, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 19
cases 32,029, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 3,748, deaths 1,360, tested 475,228
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 238.6 per million
test rate 83.4 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, June 20
cases 32,467, recovered 28,205, hospitalized 3,767, deaths 1,372, tested 492,043
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 240.7 per million
test rate 86.3 per thousand


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## wuzak (Jun 21, 2020)

Meanwhile, one game in this weekend's round of Australian Rules Football was postponed after a player from one of the teams has tested positive.

The player is an Irishman, who had returned from Ireland a month ago and had undergone 2 weeks of isolation. He had tested negative several times, until the positive test that showed a low level of infection.

Both of the teams involved are Victorian based.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 21, 2020)

"Former _New York Times_ reporter Alex Berenson told on Saturday the mainstream media has pushed false narratives about the coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19, and in his view, there is marginal evidence that lockdowns work.” 

I've been so locked down I can't tell.

What are y'alls takes on whether lockdowns have positive effect on the plague?

Consensus here seems to me to be that catching/spreading the plague is one thing, putting people in ICU is a more significant thing (because of limits in ICU beds). How have lockdowns effected either event?


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## fubar57 (Jun 21, 2020)

Working here, as mentioned above, now zero deaths in 13 days


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## wuzak (Jun 21, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> "Former _New York Times_ reporter Alex Berenson told on Saturday the mainstream media has pushed false narratives about the coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19, and in his view, there is marginal evidence that lockdowns work.”
> 
> I've been so locked down I can't tell.
> 
> ...



Lockdown here led to 0 deaths in several weeks and 0 active cases.


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## buffnut453 (Jun 21, 2020)

In the UK, there were grave fears that COVID would overwhelm the NHS. The Royal Army Medical Corps set up a temporary hospital in a convention centre in London in preparation for the expected overflow of COVID patients. Thankfully, the excess capacity wasn't needed due, in large part, to the quarantine that significantly slowed the rate of infection.


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## wuzak (Jun 21, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Lockdown here led to 0 deaths in several weeks and 0 active cases.



To expand on this, and give some perspective:

Tasmania, population ~537k, 226 cases, 13 deaths., 0 active cases

Closest US states in terms of population are Wyoming and Vermont.
Wyoming, (~579k pop) 1,179 cases, 20 deaths, 263 active cases
Vermont, (~623k pop), 1,147 case, 56 deaths, 171 active cases

Neither Wyoming or Vermont have cities the size of Greater Hobart (~240k) or Launceston (~87k). The disease spreads most easily in more populated areas.


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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh no! TheMadPenguin disagreed with my post! What will I do?????



In all fairness, this is not an appropriate or respectful response...

I am one of the members going back and forth with other members on this forum, over the use of specific terms and phrases. I understand that we are not supposed to discuss politics, but in our current world it seems that everything is politics. For the most part the other members I have addressed have been respectful.

Like this post, there has been some trolling/taunting on this thread. However, trolling is not an intellectually honest form of argument, and is only effective if the "trollee" rises to the bait.

I would hope that we could have open, honest and respectful debates on this forum, on any subject. I also hope this Moderator can understand that I must hold him to a somewhat higher standard, and hope that this response was an aberration to a job otherwise well done.

Regards,

Kim

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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> "Former _New York Times_ reporter Alex Berenson told on Saturday the mainstream media has pushed false narratives about the coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19, and in his view, there is marginal evidence that lockdowns work.”



I am just curious, where did Mr. Berenson go to Medical School? In his tweet he quotes an economist, who appears to have no medical background. This is the first I have heard that putting people in quarantine/lockdown was not effective. 

Health officials in countries with around the world, with governments of all types, have instituted lockdowns, based on science. I am going to assume for the moment that they have a better understanding of public health than a newspaper reporter and an economist.

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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

I almost forgot the most important thing today;

Happy Fathers Day to all all the fathers.

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## pgeno71 (Jun 21, 2020)

this might be a good place to start for people interested in the lockdown effectiveness issue.

Lockdown Effectiveness Studies Roundup | National Review


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> "Former _New York Times_ reporter Alex Berenson told on Saturday the mainstream media has pushed false narratives about the coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19, and in his view, there is marginal evidence that lockdowns work.”
> 
> I've been so locked down I can't tell.
> 
> ...



Let’s see lockdowns prevented people from being in close proximity to one another, which prevents the spread.

Science says that is correct, because you cannot give the virus to someone else if you are not in close proximity. That is a fact. How do you think the countries in the world that have contained the virus did it? By thoughts and prayers? No they did it by keeping away from each other. But if course it only works when your population is not made up of selfish me first and “my freedumz” people.

Besides it was never about stopping the virus, but to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed. Some places such as Arizona that opened up very quickly without any restrictions at all, are now seeing just this. Arizona has gone from 24% ICU capacity to 75% capacity in the several weeks since. The hospitals in my county are raising the flag too. 

The BIG problem is not the main stream media, not when the most misinformation and false narratives are coming from the WH.

But I hey, go ahead and disagree with this post too. if the Fox News propaganda network is not reporting it, its just lame stream fake news right?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> In all fairness, this is not an appropriate or respectful response...
> 
> I am one of the members going back and forth with other members on this forum, over the use of specific terms and phrases. I understand that we are not supposed to discuss politics, but in our current world it seems that everything is politics. For the most part the other members I have addressed have been respectful.
> 
> ...



Kim,

Thank you for your kind words. Unfortunately, the post I made was not political. It was about the United States response to the pandemic, which has been a joke on all fronts and all levels. It was not a knock on Mad Penguins precious “Party”. 

The fact remains on all levels, there has been disorganization, mismanagement, false information, and lack of unifying leadership. I repeat at all levels.

Disagreeing with that straight is sticking your head in the sand.

Please feel free to send me a PM if you wish to further call me out. Thank you.

Warm regards,

Adler


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

And yes, I am being quite sarcastic at the moment. Please do not feel offended. It is not intended.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

And no, I actually have nothing but respect for MadPenguin, as I do all members of this forum. I consider this an online family, and like with all families, we do not always agree. I will drink a beer, and call all of you brothers and sisters though anyday.

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## Crimea_River (Jun 21, 2020)

Don't you dare call me a sister, you.....you......hrumph!!!!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> Don't you dare call me a sister, you.....you......hrumph!!!!



Sister...

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## Crimea_River (Jun 21, 2020)

That's it! Sniff....Where's my Haagen Dazs!!!

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## Vincenzo (Jun 21, 2020)

Italy report, 21st June 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 238,499, +1,510, deaths 34,634, +289, recovered 182,893, +6,523, active cases 20,972, -5,302, tests 4,984,370, +363,652, people tested 3,041,750, +195,129
fatality rate 14.5% (=)
mortality rate 574 per million (+5)
test rate 82.6 per thousand (+6)
positive rate 7.8% (-0.5)
test rate this week 6,029 per million (-340)
positive rate this week 0.8% (-0.1)
new case rate this week 25 per million (-8)


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## pgeno71 (Jun 21, 2020)

Beer...hmmm, I'd prefer a glass of whiskey.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Beer...hmmm, I'd prefer a glass of whiskey.



I’m down with that too. I do enjoy a nice scotch or irish.

Middleton Very Rare please

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## gumbyk (Jun 21, 2020)

> Influenza in epidemic form made its appearance in the army camps of the United States during March, 1918.... Influenza became epidemic in Spain about the middle of May and in other countries received the name “Spanish influenza” which is not more applicable than the designation “Russian influenza” often applied to the disease during the pandemic of 1889–90.



It seems that even in 1921 people recognised that it shouldn't have been termed 'Spanish Flu"

from: The Project Gutenberg eBook of Epidemic Respiratory Disease, by Eugene L. Opie


oh, and I'll have a Glenlivet Nadurra thanks...


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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

I have no real issue with using the *geographic* origin in the name of the disease. However, using the name of a country implies to some, that the people of that country are somehow complicit in the outbreak. And, once again, the origin of a virus has very little bearing on how we get through a Pandemic. 

Here in the United States, there has been a substantial increase in hate crimes and hate speech perpetrated against people of Asian decent in the last few months. I have also seen and heard some of my fellow citizens ask if they could contract Covid-19 from Chinese food...

Unfortunately, in this day and age words do matter... Not for the right reason, but they matter nonetheless.

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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

Oh, and yes make mine a Rum and Coke, a tall one...


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## wuzak (Jun 21, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> In his tweet he quotes an economist, who appears to have no medical background. This is the first I have heard that putting people in quarantine/lockdown was not effective.
> 
> Health officials in countries with around the world, with governments of all types, have instituted lockdowns, based on science. I am going to assume for the moment that they have a better understanding of public health than a newspaper reporter and an economist.



To be fair, I think economists have difficulty with economics, let alone medicine.

And when was the last time when a "reporter" reported anything? These days all they seem to produce is opinion, so maybe their profession should be changed to "opinionator".


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> this might be a good place to start for people interested in the lockdown effectiveness issue.
> 
> Lockdown Effectiveness Studies Roundup | National Review



The National Review?

lol

It is a politically slanted conservative mouth peace. It’s on the same level as CNN, Breitbart, Fox News and Huffpost for lack reliability due to its slanted bias.


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## pgeno71 (Jun 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The National Review?
> 
> lol
> 
> It is a politically slanted conservative mouth peace. It’s on the same level as CNN, Breitbart, Fox News and Huffpost for lack reliability due to its slanted bias.



The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.

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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

wuzak said:


> To expand on this, and give some perspective:
> 
> Tasmania, population ~537k, 226 cases, 13 deaths., 0 active cases
> 
> ...



And, due to the failure of the NSW government to quarantine the _Ruby Princess_ cruise ship passengers most of the Tassie cases came from passengers on that ship that were told they did not need to quarantine or take any other precautions.

Had the NSW government health department been run by competent persons the Tassie infection and death toll would have been much much much lower.

If Chinese figures are to be believed (in most things I think they are full of ****) locking down Wuhan prevented the rest of China being infected until they allowed returning travelers into Beijing.

Quarantine works

*Or to look at it a different way*

*What two countries have the poorest lockdown - Brazil and the USA*

*What two countries have the highest per capita death toll - Brazil and the USA*

*Quarantine works*


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.



We will agree to disagree. Anyone can pick and choose studies that agree with their bias. Unless it is an independent study with no bias, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

The same can be said for any “journalistic” article that comes from a slanted source that only panders to its viewers preconceived beliefs such as the National Review.


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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unless it is an independent study with no bias, it must be taken with a grain of salt.



I hate to say it but in the present political climate in multiple countries an independent study and independent peer review are [email protected]#$%^&* near impossible to find.


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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We will agree to disagree. Anyone can pick and choose studies that agree with their bias. Unless it is an independent study with no bias, it must be taken with a grain of salt.



I have yet to meet the human being without bias... Isn't that part of the Human condition?

Although I am no fan of the National Review, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

No side, Right or Left, Conservative or Liberal, has a monopoly on good or bad ideas.


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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> No side, Right or Left, Conservative or Liberal, has a monopoly on good or bad ideas.



100,000% correct


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## Dash119 (Jun 21, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> I have yet to meet the human being without bias... Isn't that part of the Human condition?





Dash119 said:


> No side, Right or Left, Conservative or Liberal, has a monopoly on good or bad ideas.



Of course due to my own bias, while I do not have a monopoly on good ideas, I have nearly cornered the marketplace...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> I have yet to meet the human being without bias... Isn't that part of the Human condition?
> 
> Although I am no fan of the National Review, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
> 
> No side, Right or Left, Conservative or Liberal, has a monopoly on good or bad ideas.



I do not disagree with you.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I hate to say it but in the present political climate in multiple countries an independent study and independent peer review are [email protected]#$%^&* near impossible to find.



They can be found, people just have to put their bias aside and actually look for them.

It’s why I laugh on facebook every time I read somebody post some conspiracy theory BS and say they “researched” it.


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## wuzak (Jun 21, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> The National Review is a bias publication, but the article contained about 30 links to actual studies on the topic. A much better example of useful journalism than just another news articles that skews facts or expresses hypocritical opinions. I will channel my inner Rod Sterling here but ... picture, if you will, a society were people research topics and weigh information and data from multiple and contradictory sources and arguments to reach there own conclusions rather than following the lead of some talking head with a political agenda to push or cower to the current radical chic.



One of the links that support the idea that lockdown was ineffective:



> “Do Lockdowns Work? A Counterfactual for Sweden.” This study compares Sweden with a “synthetic” version of Sweden, a mix of other countries that had similar trends pre-lockdown: 39 percent Netherlands, 26 percent Denmark, 19 percent Finland, 15 percent Norway, and 1 percent Portugal. The upshot is that the real Sweden had no more deaths than the fake Sweden. The real Sweden saw a lot of voluntary social distancing, but its mobility rates didn’t fall quite as much as the fake Sweden’s did.



Let us look at Sweden:
Data from: Coronavirus Update (Live): 9,044,563 Cases and 470,665 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Coronavirus Cases: 56,043 (Oz: 7,461; NZ: 1,511)
Active Cases: N/A (Oz: 463; NZ 7*)
Deaths: 5,053 (Oz: 102; NZ: 22)
Cases/1m population: 5,550 (Oz: 293; NZ: 302)
Deaths/1m populations: 500 (Oz: 4; NZ: 4)























Note that Sweden has ~40% of Australia's population and yet some days the number of deaths from Covid 19 exceed the total from Australia.
And Sweden has ~2 times the population of New Zealand, yet on some days the deaths exceed 5 times the total number of deaths in New Zealand.

I don't think Sweden is a good example against the efficacy of lockdown.


Other examples:


> “Full Lockdown Policies in Western Europe Countries Have No Evident Impacts on the COVID-19 Epidemic.” This one looks at “full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom” and finds “no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends.”



Not sure these countries are the best examples of lockdown, since all seem to have been quite late in acting, well after the virus took hold. The UK even held the policy, initially, of letting the virus spread.




> Finally, Carl Quintanilla of CNBC recently circulated an analysis from JPMorgan pointing out that the states that have reopened haven’t seen the virus take off. This could imply that the lockdowns never did anything, that these states’ replacement policies were adequate, or simply that a spike is still to come.



That report may have been premature, as several states are no experiencing record numbers.





















And I believe that these two states never really did the lock down.











The trends seem pretty clear.


* New Zealand had 0 active cases until they imported a couple.

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## Marcel (Jun 22, 2020)

I think anyone arguing that lockdown is not efficient is not thinking clearly. 
I think a much more interesting debate is how strict this lockdown has to be. So at what point do extra measurements stop being significant. 
For instance The Netherlands and Belgium are demographically quite similar. The pandemic reached these countries almost simultaneously. While the Belgians has a very strict lockdown, we had slightly less so. Still in both countries the curve seems to be the same. The number of ICU patients started to decline at about the same moment with the same rate. Based on that, admittedly single, example, one could argue that the extra measures taken by the Belgians were not significant. One could argue that the NL did it slightly better as the little bit more freedom lessened the mental burden for the population. 
On the other hand, both countries fared better than Brazil, so both lockdowns seem to be more efficient than doing nothing. 

Admittedly this is pure anecdotal evidence, so maybe these observations should be taken with a grain of salt. 

One remark about the efficiency of the New Zealand lockdown is that NZ are islands in the middle of a big ocean, while European countries are not. So more has to be considered when comparing countries at how well they did.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I think anyone arguing that lockdown is not efficient is not thinking clearly.
> I think a much more interesting debate is how strict this lockdown has to be. So at what point do extra measurements stop being significant.
> For instance The Netherlands and Belgium are demographically quite similar. The pandemic reached these countries almost simultaneously. While the Belgians has a very strict lockdown, we had slightly less so. Still in both countries the curve seems to be the same. The number of ICU patients started to decline at about the same moment with the same rate. Based on that, admittedly single, example, one could argue that the extra measures taken by the Belgians were not significant. One could argue that the NL did it slightly better as the little bit more freedom lessened the mental burden for the population.
> On the other hand, both countries fared better than Brazil, so both lockdowns seem to be more efficient than doing nothing.
> ...



Nothing to disagree with here in my opinion. Well said, and I agree.


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## MiTasol (Jun 22, 2020)

Today's figures from the WHO show that the two countries with the least effective lockdowns set new records today. Think how bad it would be if the whole US was as bad as states like Florida. And how much lower it would be if these "its only a flu" states had locked down like NY did.

To quote
_The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported the largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases *since the start of the pandemic*, with more than 183,000 new cases detected in the past 24 hours.
The UN health agency said Brazil led the way with 54,771 cases tallied, while the US was next at 36,617._


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## Lucky13 (Jun 22, 2020)

Since we're all indulging in some alcoholic libations, I'll have some spiced rum please....

There's been a long while since Sweden was a pioneering country in anything....
There's a chance when it comes to our government though, which more often than not, takes stupid to a new level....with the media being the good little....well, you know, that's pioneering, right? 😉😆😂
You can always ask my parents what they think about the Clown Academy, you'll be embarrassed with their use of language! Since they're not members, the mods here would put _me _on time out, for _their_ crime! 😉😆😂

As for the different names of the virus, I've got no problems calling it C-19, Co Virus, Ch Virus or W Virus, neither am I blaming certain parties for it, except those that are actually responsible for this, I'm more level headed than that, unfortunately....some people need to be rebooted, reset for their, again....stupidity, I mean....seriously!?

Is it just me who wonder, is _progressive _just a posh name for _stupid _sometimes? 🤨🤔😉😆😂

Man, I need a massive BBQ....😉🤤

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## at6 (Jun 22, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sister...


Hey, I'm a guy. If I have to change genders, you'll have to sniff my panties.

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## Lucky13 (Jun 22, 2020)

at6 said:


> Hey, I'm a guy. If I have to change genders, you'll have to sniff my panties.



So it's _you, _that's been stealing Terry's panties!? 😳😲

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## fubar57 (Jun 22, 2020)

Yikes!!!! *_quickly backs out of room_

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2020)



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## pgeno71 (Jun 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I think anyone arguing that lockdown is not efficient is not thinking clearly.
> I think a much more interesting debate is how strict this lockdown has to be. So at what point do extra measurements stop being significant.
> For instance The Netherlands and Belgium are demographically quite similar. The pandemic reached these countries almost simultaneously. While the Belgians has a very strict lockdown, we had slightly less so. Still in both countries the curve seems to be the same. The number of ICU patients started to decline at about the same moment with the same rate. Based on that, admittedly single, example, one could argue that the extra measures taken by the Belgians were not significant. One could argue that the NL did it slightly better as the little bit more freedom lessened the mental burden for the population.
> On the other hand, both countries fared better than Brazil, so both lockdowns seem to be more efficient than doing nothing.
> ...



Marcel,

I agree, and your ideas were sound, your thought processes were logical and your words were clearly stated and succinct. You did not even attack anyone. That post has no place on social media.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Marcel,
> 
> I agree, and your ideas were sound, your thought processes were logical and your words were clearly stated and succinct. You did not even attack anyone. That post has no place on social media.



Maybe people are just following examples made by others in important high positions. Lead by example right? We’ll let them remain unnamed though.

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## Marcel (Jun 22, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Marcel,
> 
> I agree, and your ideas were sound, your thought processes were logical and your words were clearly stated and succinct. You did not even attack anyone. That post has no place on social media.


Isn’t a forum also social media? Maybe I should remove it then?


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## at6 (Jun 22, 2020)

Now I'm hearing that virus has mutated into a more contagious and deadly form. However, it has also been said that when or if an effective vaccine is developed, the vaccination will still be effective.


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## Marcel (Jun 22, 2020)

at6 said:


> Now I'm hearing that virus has mutated into a more contagious and deadly form. However, it has also been said that when or if an effective vaccine is developed, the vaccination will still be effective.


Old news. The Chinese claimed this already in February.


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## MiTasol (Jun 22, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Isn’t a forum also social media? Maybe I should remove it then?



Not necessary. the average IQ on twitter, facebook, etc is similar to my shoe size.

This forum has an average IQ many times higher that that.

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## at6 (Jun 23, 2020)

I have no need for Fartbook, Twitland, Pinhead, Snoopchat, etc. We have a much better set of associates and friends here.

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## ThomasP (Jun 23, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 21
cases 32,919, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 3,797, deaths 1,380, tested 504,473
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 242.1 per million
test rate 88.5 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, June 22
cases 33,227, recovered 29,065, hospitalized 3,830, deaths 1,384, tested 513,137
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 242.8 per million
test rate 90 per thousand


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## ThomasP (Jun 24, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 23
cases 33,469, recovered 29,399, hospitalized 3,860, deaths 1,393, tested 520,045
fatality rate 4.2%
mortality rate 244.4 per million
test rate 91.3 per thousand

The MN rate of spread appears to be decreasing significantly, with the number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases dropping from 606 on 28 April, to 339 as of 23 June. This decrease in the rate of spread is approximately confirmed by the new case rate (in spite of the grossly increased test rate) and death rate as shown by the following charts. YAY!

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## Crimea_River (Jun 24, 2020)

I'm watching our recent slight uptick very closely:

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 25, 2020)

Vermont's governor and staff, in their Wednesday Coronavirus press briefing today, said our rates of infection and hospitalization are deemed "unreliable" by federal standards, as being so low as to "fall within the statistical margin of error".
Don't come here unless you want to go into solitary for fourteen days.

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## ThomasP (Jun 25, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 24
cases 33,763, recovered 29,707, hospitalized 3,897, deaths 1,397, tested 529,643
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 245.1 per million
test rate 92.9 per thousand


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## Lucky13 (Jun 25, 2020)

Sweden didn’t impose a lockdown, but its economy is just as bad as its neighbors

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2020)

Well Florida and Texas just announced they are going back into partial lockdowns. Huge spikes in ICU cases. Apparently Houston is almost at 100%. Florida announced they are at 81%. Everything we were trying to avoid.

Yet the rest of the industrial western world is getting through this.Do people still think that the response from our leadership and population is not a joke?

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## ThomasP (Jun 27, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 25
cases 34,118, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 3,943, deaths 1,406, tested 542,718
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 246.7 per million
test rate 95.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, June 26
cases 34,616, recovered 30,008, hospitalized 3,966, deaths 1,411, tested 557,278
fatality rate 4.1%
mortality rate 247.5 per million
test rate 97.8 per thousand


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## michaelmaltby (Jun 27, 2020)

Why is COVID-19 so much more dangerous to men? This Canadian geneticist has a personal stake in finding out

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 27, 2020)

"... Do people still think that the response from our leadership and population is not a joke?"

Perhaps ... but THAT is not unique to _this_ crisis or _this _administration. The RestOfWorld has often thought USA was out-of-whack in the past. So what ...? That didn't make ROW right.

There is a strong whiff of _hypocrisy_ around this topic, IMO

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 27, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Don't come here unless you want to go into solitary for fourteen days.


Oops! I gloated too soon. Yesterday the governor opened our borders to visitors from neighboring counties with low infection rates (below 400 per million), which includes most of NH, ME, western MA, and northern NY. Les Québécois still not welcome, per Der Fuehrer in DC and his ICE-y attitude regarding "furriners". (Anglo Canadians seem to be OK.) WTF!

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> There is a strong whiff of _hypocrisy_ around this topic, IMO.


Of course, it's the human condition. As we reluctantly acknowledge our innate subconscious biases, how can we disavow the hypocrisies that arise from them?

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> Perhaps ... but THAT is not unique to _this_ crisis or _this _administration. The RestOfWorld has often thought USA was out-of-whack in the past. So what ...? That didn't make ROW right.


The US, ever since it became a world power, has behaved like a muscular, arrogant, headstrong adolescent: "Baby Huey", a bull in a china shop, to the consternation of the ROW who mostly have much older, more experienced societies than we. We lack the wisdom to match our muscle. Look who we choose for leaders.

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## Marcel (Jun 27, 2020)

So we’re down to 29 ICU patients (was 1500 in April), 2 dead today. Total amount of patients In hospital with COVID is less then 200. Contrary to the believe of some world leaders, the total amount of known corona patients went down, *despite* of increasing the amount of tests considerably.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> There is a strong whiff of _hypocrisy_ around this topic, IMO



How so? Please explain.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

Marcel said:


> So we’re down to 29 ICU patients (was 1500 in April), 2 dead today. Total amount of patients In hospital with COVID is less then 200. Contrary to the believe of some world leaders, the total amount of known corona patients went down, *despite* of increasing the amount of tests considerably.



What???? You increased testing, but your cases went down??? How is that possible???



You guys must be doing something right...

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 27, 2020)

How so? Please explain.
The crisis is just that, a biological crisis, _that _should not be confused with a _politica_l crisis ... this is not case.
I shouldn't have to explain that to a Mod, IMO


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> How so? Please explain.
> The crisis is just that, a biological crisis, _that _should not be confused with a _politica_l crisis ... this is not case.
> I shouldn't have to explain that to a Mod, IMO



Sorry, but you would be completely wrong. Here in the US it is both a biological and a political crisis. Leaders on both sides are failing the people, spreading false information and lies all for their own personal gain.

That should be plain as day and self explanatory to anyone, IMO

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## Marcel (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> How so? Please explain.
> The crisis is just that, a biological crisis, _that _should not be confused with a _politica_l crisis ... this is not case.
> I shouldn't have to explain that to a Mod, IMO


 I don't really understand what you mean. It's not only a biological crisis in my opinion, it's a humanitarian crisis, a political crisis, an economical crisis as wel as a biological one. Everything is involved. The worst will be the economical crisis, as many companies will struggle to get through this.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I don't really understand what you mean. It's not only a biological crisis in my opinion, it's a humanitarian crisis, a political crisis, an economical crisis as wel as a biological one. Everything is involved. The worst will be the economical crisis, as many companies will struggle to get through this.



Exactly everyone and everything is effected. 

The sad part is that this was the perfect time for leaders on all sides to come together and unify the people. To reassure them, that we will come out of this together. That it will be tough, but we will learn and grow from it. We have missed the mark, IMO...

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 27, 2020)

"It's not only a biological crisis in my opinion, it's a humanitarian crisis, a political crisis, an economical crisis as wel as a biological one. Everything is involved."
ugh huh


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## Marcel (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> "It's not only a biological crisis in my opinion, it's a humanitarian crisis, a political crisis, an economical crisis as wel as a biological one. Everything is involved."
> ugh huh


Hmmm, that's not really helpful. I'm genuinly puzzeled what you are trying to say.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> "It's not only a biological crisis in my opinion, it's a humanitarian crisis, a political crisis, an economical crisis as wel as a biological one. Everything is involved."
> ugh huh



So I don’t get the problem...


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## MiTasol (Jun 27, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> The US, ever since it became a world power, has behaved like a muscular, arrogant, headstrong adolescent: "Baby Huey", a bull in a china shop, to the consternation of the ROW who mostly have much older, more experienced societies than we. We lack the wisdom to match our muscle. Look who we choose for leaders.



Unfortunately the US is no longer a world power due to breaking so many contracts with other countries and abrogating so many international treaties.

To explain further would involve a political discussion but given the higher than average IQ of this forum most will be able to instantly identify both the various actions and resulting changes in the worlds power structures.

The attached video from an unknown source explains many of the minor factors quite accurately but predates Covid-19. I do not think it violates the politics ban but if it does will the mods please remove it. I suspect it is from a movie but I do not know which one. If anyone does will they please advise the forum or PM me. Thank you

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## Crimea_River (Jun 27, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Oops! I gloated too soon. Yesterday the governor opened our borders to visitors from neighboring counties with low infection rates (below 400 per million), which includes most of NH, ME, western MA, and northern NY. Les Québécois still not welcome, per Der Fuehrer in DC and his ICE-y attitude regarding "furriners". (Anglo Canadians seem to be OK.) WTF!



I think our weak fuehrer in Ottawa is on board as well and so is the bulk of the Canadian population. In THREE DAYS, the US has had as many cases as all of Canada has had since this all started back in March. We locked down and generally beat the curve down. Some provinces did it well, others not so much. So, the last thing we Canucks need is an open border for obvious reasons.

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 27, 2020)

So I don’t get the problem...
hypocracy.


_




_

_"... Hmmm, that's not really helpful. I'm genuinly puzzeled what you are trying to say._"

And I'm really puzzled by your platitudes Marcel. You have a sharp nose for politicization of threads when it suits you.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> So I don’t get the problem...
> hypocracy.
> 
> 
> ...



Where is the hypocrisy in that picture and my post?

I’m seriously puzzled.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

Lawmakers in Canada and Scotland have pointed to the US as an example of failed coronavirus containment


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## Glider (Jun 28, 2020)

It's hard to disagree with that observation

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> The attached video from an unknown source explains many of the minor factors quite accurately but predates Covid-19. I do not think it violates the politics ban but if it does will the mods please remove it. I suspect it is from a movie, but I don't know which one.


In this highly charged atmosphere, everything is political, so there's no escaping it. Even the history we all cherish is merely politics in the past tense, as we view it through ideology tinted lenses. What this video clip focusses on is the corrosion of a great society from within, the inevitable result of the demonization of any and all opposition as evil, not simply misguided.
It didn't use to be this way. In the America of my youth, people could still agree to disagree, and invite each other over for dinner and swim in each other's pools. Politics was politics, manners were manners, and neighbors were neighbors. Today your neighbors all think like you and if you choose to socialize on the "other side" it's "fraternizing with the enemy". Abe Lincoln said it best: "A house divided against itself cannot stand".
My next door neighbor is a racist redneck, and every time I have to speak with him I find myself gritting my teeth, which makes it hard to smile and be friendly. Too bad, he's got the makings of a nice guy, as long as you're white, and not Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, or "a libtard".
Unity, wherefore art thou?

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## Marcel (Jun 28, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> And I'm really puzzled by your platitudes Marcel. You have a sharp nose for politicization of threads when it suits you.


Is that so? Maybe you could point that out to me where I seem to do that. But please in a PM.

To all: if you have a problem with me or one of the others of the forum team, please don’t try to ventilate that through some cryptic posts. Pm me or the mod concerned and state clearly what you think goes wrong. We’re only human and make mistakes just like you do. So it’s okay if you want to correct something. I’m not a bully and can admit when I’m wrong. If you don’t feel comfortable with me alone in a pm, just add one of the team that you do trust.

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 28, 2020)

"... In this highly charged atmosphere, everything is political,"
I agree .... but one President didn't make it so .... it has followed the same course in Canada and GB ...
Sadly, I am expecting to see Winston Churchill's statue torn down any day now.

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 28, 2020)

Lawmakers in Canada and Scotland have pointed to the US as an example of failed coronavirus containment
Big deal .... they're _politicians._ They are hardly the pillars of precision and good judgement.
Law makers in the EU and elsewhere have villanized Poland, Hungry and Slovakia for elitist, non-inclusive immigration policies yet these countries have had successful COVID-19 containment policies .... so pick and chose your cherries ...
_The only thing I care about is how successful countries are in restoring their economies ... without progress in this the world slips backwards._

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> I agree .... but one President didn't make it so ....


I first became aware of it in the 1964 presidential campaign, when Barry Goldwater, admittedly a little too far right for mainstream America of the time, was painted by the media image mongers as the devil incarnate. I didn't agree with his politics, but thought he didn't deserve all the vitriol thrown at him.
That was stage one of the cancer, and anyone who's had their ear to the ground in the years since can fill in the rest of the story. Paul Simon noticed it early on:
"And the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls...and tenement halls...echoing the sounds...of silence". 1965 to 2016, it took awhile, but prophecy can be like that.
There've been a few honest gentlemen/women on both sides of the aisle over the years, but not enough to stitch together the diverging narratives of history, social values, and world view, so that now we live in alternate realities that are mutually incomprehensible. Each believes the other to be fabricated out of whole cloth and based on warped social values and deliberately distorted truths for nefarious purposes.
Consensus, what's that?? Sounds too much like capitulation to me, man! MWOTH!! (My way or....)

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## MIflyer (Jun 28, 2020)

I'd guess what I'd like to know is what is really a good source of information. I understand that it's been admitted that the "Ordinary people don't need an N95 mask." statements made by the professionals early in the pandemic were outright lies, focused on making sure the masks were available for medical personnel. Now they admit that an N95 is really the only thing that will stop the virus. But we are told to keep wearing the largely ineffective masks anyway, and this has been remphasized lately.

We were told that people who display no symptoms but test positive can transmit the virus to others. Then we are told that children who test positive can transmit the virus to others only very rarely, if ever. Okay, what about adults who test positive but have no symptoms? I have lost track of the truth on this. I suspect that when the "authorities" realized they had shut down the schools for no reason they decided they'd better shut up.

We were told that the virus can persist for long periods, perhaps weeks on surfaces. Now, it seems that while it might persist it usually does not do so in quantities and at a virulence level that is likely to cause actual transmission.

The list of possible symptoms keeps growing. We were told that a runny nose meant a cold, not the WuFlu. Now they say a runny nose is a symptom. I fully expect that the list of symptoms eventually will be expanded to include everything, including athelete's foot, gastric reflux, and rabies.

One of my favorite sayings: "There is no such thing as 'Science'; there is only that which quickly becomes practical engineering and that which remains as unfounded speculation." To that I add my own: "The only thing 'Settled' in science is the politics." 

Which is "Science"? Which is practical engineering? Which is politics? And which is mere rumor?

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## michaelmaltby (Jun 28, 2020)

"consensus" is not leadership ....
There are 2 things to fear in life .... 1. the law of unintended consequences; 2. The Tyranny of Good Intentions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> Lawmakers in Canada and Scotland have pointed to the US as an example of failed coronavirus containment
> Big deal .... they're _politicians._ They are hardly the pillars of precision and good judgement.
> Law makers in the EU and elsewhere have villanized Poland, Hungry and Slovakia for elitist, non-inclusive immigration policies yet these countries have had successful COVID-19 containment policies .... so pick and chose your cherries ...
> _The only thing I care about is how successful countries are in restoring their economies ... without progress in this the world slips backwards._



I’m still confused at your problem. Why you felt the need to attack and call people hypocrites. I am really starting to get annoyed. 

All I am saying is that the response in the US by our leaders, professionals and population on all sides has been a joke and a failure. 

Thats pretty much a fact, whether you like it or not. Anything else is putting your head in the sand.

Now I would recommend you follow Marcels advice.


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## Glider (Jun 28, 2020)

What I find equally annoying is the fact that this is taking our eyes off other very important factors. It's been reported that Russia was paying a bounty for every death of an American or British soldier and I haven't heard a squeak from either government.

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## Gnomey (Jun 28, 2020)




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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

Shaking my head...

The American population is equally to blame for this. Stupidity is another reason why we are losing the battle with the virus.

How did we ever become a superpower? 😂


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## Zipper730 (Jun 28, 2020)

I don't see why people won't just wear a stupid mask. It's not hard to do.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I don't see why people won't just wear a stupid mask. It's not hard to do.



That is a topic that will be debated till the end of time. No need to beat a dead on horse on it either. Nothing anyone says on this forum will change the minds of any one person here whether they agree or disagree.

On another note...


The entire topic of the coronavirus is a very difficult one, because everything about it is political. We have rules on this forum pertaining to that, and it is really hard to separate the non-political from the political. I struggle with it myself. I am human, as are all Mods, just as Marcel has pointed out, and I am very passionate about this topic and what I perceive are the reasons for our failure. Unfortunately, that means I go too far sometimes. As stated, I am human. That does not make me a hypocrite or whatever the heck people want to call me. I have to catch myself, and do better. I don’t mind people pointing it out either, but they can certainly do it in a better way.

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## Crimea_River (Jun 28, 2020)



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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The entire topic of the coronavirus is a very difficult one, because everything about it is political. We have rules on this forum pertaining to that, and it is really hard to separate the non-political from the political. I struggle with it myself. I am human, as are all Mods, just as Marcel has pointed out, and I am very passionate about this topic and what I perceive are the reasons for our failure. Unfortunately, that means I go too far sometimes. As stated, I am human. That does not make me a hypocrite or whatever the heck people want to call me. I have to catch myself, and do better. I don’t mind people pointing it out either, but it can certainly be done in a better way.


I think all of the above applies to all of us here, Chris. We've got to channel our passion into motivating action, and avoid letting it antagonize discussion. Easier said than done, I know, and my apologies for sounding like a preachy kindergarten teacher. If we can keep a civil tongue in our head, we can get through this minefield unscathed.
Cheers,
Wes

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I think all of the above applies to all of us here, Chris. We've got to channel our passion into motivating action, and avoid letting it antagonize discussion. Easier said than done, I know, and my apologies for sounding like a preachy kindergarten teacher. If we can keep a civil tongue in our head, we can get through this minefield unscathed.
> Cheers,
> Wes



I do not disagree. I, however, question the feasibility of that when our country would rather divide ourselves than work together.

We have turned on each other so much in this country, we have forgotten who we are. I honestly believe our leadership wants this. A divided population is an ignorant and powerless one.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> I'd guess what I'd like to know is what is really a good source of information.


Join the club, brother! There is no gospel here, and none of those preaching at us are ordained priests. When it comes to information, we all need to practice a little media literacy and decide for ourselves what information we trust. Scary, isn't it? Requires us to be active editors of information, not passive consumers of it. I know, I get lazy too, sometimes.
Our problem, (as I see it) is that we are living in the middle of a global science experiment, where we are both the lab rats and the researchers, and the raw observation notes of every step of every investigation are being trumpeted to the public as the latest "scientific fact" without vetting or peer review. Meanwhile, the new and unknown virus under investigation is a moving target, evolving under our noses before we can nail it down.
Fortunately, I have a woodshop, and had a package of N95s on hand when this thing blew up. I grabbed one for myself, gave one to my lady friend, and the rest went to our local community health center. I don't expect my mask to protect me from the virus. Its function is to protect others from any virus I may be carrying. I expect them to extend me the same courtesy. If we ALL observe these courtesies, grant each other our prescribed two meters personal space, wash hands frequently, and stay home as much as possible, we can lick this thing in short order. Will we? Nah, too much discipline for Americans to abide by. "Damned if I'll let some egghead X-spurt with more letters after his name than an English lord tell ME what to do." Thus we will be the eternal reservoir, keeping the virus alive after the rest of the world has mostly eradicated it.
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!

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## Vincenzo (Jun 28, 2020)

Italy report, 28th June, 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 240,310, +1,811, deaths 34,738, +104, recovered 188,891, +5,998, active cases 16,681, -4,291, tests 5,314,619, +330,249, people tested 3,220,020, +178,270
fatality rate 14.5% (=)
mortality rate 576 per million (+2)
test rate 88.1 per thousand (+5.5)
positive rate 7.5% (-0.3)
test rate this week 5,475 per million (-554)
positive rate this week 1% (+0.2)
new case rate this week 30 per million (+5)


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## Marcel (Jun 28, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I don't see why people won't just wear a stupid mask. It's not hard to do.


I’m not starting that discussion again. If you want to wear a mask, please do, but learn how to operate them correctly, dispose them safely and often and get the best mask possible and don’t just wear a self made cloth. And last of all, don’t think the mask on it’s own will protect you, make sure you do all the other things, keeping distance, don’t go out if you don’t have to, don’t go to crowded places, sneeze in your elbow and wash those hands well with soap as often as necessary.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Join the club, brother! There is no gospel here, and none of those preaching at us are ordained priests. When it comes to information, we all need to practice a little media literacy and decide for ourselves what information we trust. Scary, isn't it? Requires us to be active editors of information, not passive consumers of it. I know, I get lazy too, sometimes.
> Our problem, (as I see it) is that we are living in the middle of a global science experiment, where we are both the lab rats and the researchers, and the raw observation notes of every step of every investigation are being trumpeted to the public as the latest "scientific fact" without vetting or peer review. Meanwhile, the new and unknown virus under investigation is a moving target, evolving under our noses before we can nail it down.
> Fortunately, I have a woodshop, and had a package of N95s on hand when this thing blew up. I grabbed one for myself, gave one to my lady friend, and the rest went to our local community health center. I don't expect my mask to protect me from the virus. Its function is to protect others from any virus I may be carrying. I expect them to extend me the same courtesy. If we ALL observe these courtesies, grant each other our prescribed two meters personal space, wash hands frequently, and stay home as much as possible, we can lick this thing in short order. Will we? Nah, too much discipline for Americans to abide by. "Damned if I'll let some egghead X-spurt with more letters after his name than an English lord tell ME what to do." Thus we will be the eternal reservoir, keeping the virus alive after the rest of the world has mostly eradicated it.
> That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!



I agree with a lot of what you say, and it honestly worries me. Our response to the virus both leadership and personally as a population has been so poor. 

July 1st, the EU will open up borders and travel, but NOT to the US because we are doing so poorly. My mother is aging, and I worry about her health, and I cannot travel to Germany to see her. My children’s grandparents cannot come see them either. Our economy will not recover regardless of whether we open up or not. All because we as a nation are not mature enough to be inconvenienced for the greater good. Our leaders (Not just the one sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. although I give him the biggest share) are more concerned about ratings than the health of a nation. Worst of all...

*We the people demand our rights, without recognizing our responsibilities, and that is not freedom but adolescence.*

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## at6 (Jun 28, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How did we ever become a superpower? 😂


Because there were rational leaders with common sense back then. Not the self serving pimple heads in DC today.

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## Glider (Jun 28, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Shaking my head...
> 
> The American population is equally to blame for this. Stupidity is another reason why we are losing the battle with the virus.
> 
> How did we ever become a superpower? 😂


By beating another Superpower.

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## at6 (Jun 28, 2020)

Much of the problem with our population not having the discipline to wear a mask comes from the lack of discipline among the younger generations. The spoiled "I want it now and I'm entitled" groups. I was brought up with a strict code of behavior that is so sadly lacking today which contributes to the spread of the virus. Admittedly, a mask is uncomfortable but the alternative is worse.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 28, 2020)

D.C. is not the center of the problem, it is where the attention is focused; the real responsibility for how Ca, NY, and Tx deal with the Chinese Corona Virus rests primarily with the governors of the states, the administrators of the Counties, and the Mayors of the cities. Not only are they unable to do so (like how many of us have managed a population of 5000+ through a plague?) they are both hobbled by, and hobbling others, under the influence of Partisanship (not politics).

On top of this there is the anarchist insurrection calling itself BLM/Antifa/etc who are acting to tear down what is America and plant their flag on the top of the smoldering rubble more than to address and redress any particular problems.

To whatever extent this post seems Political to anybody, please don't. It's me looking at why this Wuhan Kung Flu might just throat-punch us.

I suppose thesee ongoings make us look bad to foreigners, to me it makes us look like a million junkies fighting tooth and nail over access to our favorite drug.

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## Glider (Jun 28, 2020)

at6 said:


> Much of the problem with our population not having the discipline to wear a mask comes from the lack of discipline among the younger generations. The spoiled "I want it now and I'm entitled" groups. I was brought up with a strict code of behavior that is so sadly lacking today which contributes to the spread of the virus. Admittedly, a mask is uncomfortable but the alternative is worse.


I think I am right is saying that Socrates in Ancient Greece said pretty much the same thing. Which is one of the reasons he concentrated on trying to develop the mind of the young. He died when the political leaders turned against him.
At the time Athens was in the midst of losing its important place in the world and tried to hang on to its glorious past whilst Socrates tried to get them to see the error of their ways. As he was seen as turning the youth against the 'official thinking' he was considered to be a traitor. This despite an excellent record not just as a philosopher but as a successful soldier in many campaigns unlike the politicians leading the country. He was charged with treason and corrupting the youth, being sentenced to death.

You can see certain patterns of these types of behaviour in British History, where we hang on to memories of old victory's and Empire. It could also be said that you are starting to see some of these in American behaviours where the leaders in some ways are trying to protect traditional approaches and not being flexible and recognising that times and situations change.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 28, 2020)

Glider said:


> By beating another Superpower.


No by loaning them money. That stategy worked from start ww1 onwards through Marshall help to now. That is how France , Holland and the Uk etc. lost everything outside their borders. Uk was still on foodstamps while the Germans got on holiday and bought Audi's.
In the end it is not the boots on the ground that make a change, but dollars in the bank. Deprive the top of money and things will start happening.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

at6 said:


> Much of the problem with our population not having the discipline to wear a mask comes from the lack of discipline among the younger generations. The spoiled "I want it now and I'm entitled" groups. I was brought up with a strict code of behavior that is so sadly lacking today which contributes to the spread of the virus. Admittedly, a mask is uncomfortable but the alternative is worse.



I think it depends on where you live. Here in the midwest where I live it is the older 35 to 50 crowd refusing to distance themselves using the “You can’t restrict my freedumz” excuse. If you go to the cities or places with beaches for instance, it is the younger crowd.

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## swampyankee (Jun 28, 2020)

at6 said:


> Because there were rational leaders with common sense back then. Not the self serving pimple heads in DC today.



"Self-serving pimple heads" are hardly new in US politics. James Polk started a war with Mexico largely to expand slavery; Andrew Jackson started a tradition of the US abrogating treaties to serve domestic politics (and threw in a bit of ethnic cleansing), Thomas Jefferson's anti-trade policies decimated the economies of large swathes of the US, Rutherford Hayes' term saw the premature end of Reconstruction and acceptance of the results of racist terrorism (the KKK and similar organizations) and encouraged and even enforced massive violations of civil rights in the South, Woodrow Wilson, through both arrogance and racism dumped his "self-determination" rhetoric when it applied to the Middle East (leaving imperialistic French and British policies in place that were largely responsible for setting the stage for everlasting conflict there) and other imperial possessions. 

They're not new. We just don't pay attention to how bad many of the US politicians were in the past. Check out, for example, the corruption during Warren Harding's administration, Jefferson's "affair" with Sally Hemings*, starting when she was 14, John Adams and his ill-thought out sedition laws, a pro-slavery congressman beating abolitionist Charles Sumner nearly to death, ...


---

* The only slaves Jefferson every freed were Sally Hemings' children, so it's highly likely (and strongly supported by DNA evidence) that her children were Jefferson's. The exact time sex between the two started is not known -- Jefferson didn't write about it and Hemings couldn't -- but she was born in 1773 and most historians place the start of their "affair" while Jefferson was in France.

** Sumner had many more accomplishments than being beaten by some racist hothead; among others, he fought for the desegregation of schools in Boston. He failed in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, but the legislature desegregated them in 1855. This probably didn't end the segregation, which was continued because of extra-legal methods, like deed covenants, redlining, real estate agencies and local ordinances.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> D.C. is not the center of the problem, it is where the attention is focused;



I disagree. In DC is the leader of our country spreading false information about the virus, and doing his best to not unify the people, as well as not displaying an ounce of competency. In DC you also have the Senate and House (Both Dems and Reps) refusing to work together. No, the problem starts at the top in DC. That is were leaders set the tone for everyone.

We have a “boss” in DC, not a leader. A leader leads from the front by example. With decency, compitence, respect, and as a role model. That is not occurring. Not admitting this is ignoring the truth, probably occurs along party lines.

The problem does not stop there. It goes all the way to the state and local level.

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## Glider (Jun 28, 2020)

Snautzer01 said:


> No by loaning them money. That stategy worked from start ww1 onwards through Marshall help to now. That is how France , Holland and the Uk etc. lost everything outside their borders. Uk was still on foodstamps while the Germans got on holiday and bought Audi's.
> In the end it is not the boots on the ground that make a change, but dollars in the bank. Deprive the top of money and things will start happening.


I was thinking of the War of Independence. There is a train of thought that this was the first time the British Empire had suffered a significant loss, plus of course the USA became fully independent.


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## swampyankee (Jun 28, 2020)

Glider said:


> By beating another Superpower.



No, by having both a liberal economy and vast internal resources. By WW1, the US had more economic output than France and Germany combined. Russia, which could have had that sort of success decided that maintaining autocracy and keeping those new-fangled ideas of the Enlightenment at bay were more important than economic progress.

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## Marcel (Jun 28, 2020)

Guys, let’s go back on topic. Political discussions went far enough now. 

A positive note: we had another day without Corona deaths.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 28, 2020)

True Marcel. Should start a thread on this but not in this one. Btw written history is not political. Interpretation is.

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## MiTasol (Jun 28, 2020)

at6 said:


> Much of the problem with our population not having the discipline to wear a mask comes from the lack of discipline among the younger generations. The spoiled "I want it now and I'm entitled" groups. I was brought up with a strict code of behavior that is so sadly lacking today which contributes to the spread of the virus. Admittedly, a mask is uncomfortable but the alternative is worse.



*Yes. * And the refusal to socially distance and refusal to cooperate with anyone.

I too was raised in the time when rights were only obtained by accepting responsibilities and accepting that others had the same rights that you do. Until this returns I doubt that things will change for the better.

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## MiTasol (Jun 28, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> I suppose these ongoings make us look bad to foreigners, to me it makes us look like a million junkies fighting tooth and nail over access to our favorite drug.



Yes, the same mindless behavior has been evident to foreigners for a long time.

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## MiTasol (Jun 28, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> There've been a few honest gentlemen/women on both sides of the aisle over the years, but not enough to stitch together the diverging narratives of history, social values, and world view, so that now we live in alternate realities that are mutually incomprehensible. Each believes the other to be fabricated out of whole cloth and based on warped social values and deliberately distorted truths for nefarious purposes.



John McCain tried to stitch the country together after he lost the race to Barack Obama and for that he was almost lynched by his own people.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> John McCain tried to stitch the country together after he lost the race to Barack Obama and for that he was almost lynched by his own people.


Proof positive of the point you quoted to make that reply. One of the few remaining honest gentlemen with common sense.
RIP, John.

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## Zipper730 (Jun 28, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> July 1st, the EU will open up borders and travel, but NOT to the US because we are doing so poorly.


How long will the US be put under isolation?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> How long will the US be put under isolation?



Until we get it under control.

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## Crimea_River (Jun 28, 2020)

More likely until patience runs out so, I give it 8 days.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 28, 2020)

Glider said:


> the leaders in some ways are trying to protect traditional approaches and not being flexible and recognising that times and situations change.


The very definition of "reactionary".

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## ThomasP (Jun 29, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 27
cases 35,033, recovered 30,401, hospitalized 3,986, deaths 1,417, tested 568,907
fatality rate 4%
mortality rate 248.6 per million
test rate 99.8 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, June 28
cases 35,549, recovered 30,809, hospitalized 4,010, deaths 1,425, tested 585,417
fatality rate 4%
mortality rate 250 per million
test rate 102.7 per thousand

Minnesota, Texas, California, and Florida all began reopening within a week of each other.

Texas, California, and Florida have all had more new cases in the last 7 days than Minnesota has had in total since the beginning of the pandemic. Some of this increase is due to increased testing rates, as it is for Minnesota and other states who have ramped up their test rates. Based on hospitalization rates, the models that also take the increased testing into account indicate approximately the same total percentage of the population in each state has contracted COVID-19, ie 6-10%. However, the rate of spread is increasing in Texas, California, and Florida, whereas the rate of spread in Minnesota is level or decreasing. If we look at the rate of spread ratio between the states, taking into account the larger populations of the other 3 states, and using the value of 1.00 for Minnesota, we get:

_________________________7-day
_________________________ New
_______________ Pop._____Cases____ Ratio
Minnesota_______5.7M____ 3,082_____1.00
Florida_________20.4_____42,449_____3.85
Texas__________29.9_____40,066_____2.48
California______ 41.0_____41,017_____1.85

Minnesotans are pretty bad where mask wearing is concerned, but we are still social distancing to a large extent, and are going slow on reopening. Although there are segments of the population that are ignoring the social gatherings rules (primarily the bar crowds, some churches, and such) the majority of people (even the younger ones) are doing a fairly good job of staying at home and avoiding contact with the older population. Because of this, the number of current COVID-19 cases in Minnesota hospitals has dropped from a high of 606 on 27 May, to 288 as of 28 June, and is the lowest it has been since 25 April.

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## at6 (Jun 29, 2020)

Even 4 percent can be a grim number given the right numbers. This is one scary a$$ virus since kills at will regardless of age group now. Whjo gives a crap about fault at this time? We common sense procedures to slow or halt the spread. Newsom isn't the best but then Brown would have been no better. Somebody "screwed the pooch" and now we have what we have. I'm trying to hide until 2030 to escape the plague.


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## MIflyer (Jun 29, 2020)

Experts say that the N95 mask does not filter your exhaust, so you ain't helping anybody but yourself, at best.


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## Lucky13 (Jun 29, 2020)



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## Zipper730 (Jun 29, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Until we get it under control.


You know, I was hoping for figures more like 1-3 months -- some number that isn't indefinite.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> You know, I was hoping for figures more like 1-3 months -- some number that isn't indefinite.


Dream on! Ain't nothing definite about this bug, except it's a bastard. Stay light on your feet, roll with the punches, and you can go the distance.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> View attachment 586536


SHOP OUR WEEK-LONG "LOST COLONY" ANNUAL SALE!

LOWEST PRICES OF THE YEAR ON GUILLOTINES, LONDON TOWER AXES, CHOPPING BLOCKS, AND BLACK HOODS!

Visit us @Execute.com

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> You know, I was hoping for figures more like 1-3 months -- some number that isn't indefinite.


That would require that human stupidity is neither infinite nor indefinite.
Strike one
Strike two
...


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> Experts say that the N95 mask does not filter your exhaust, so you ain't helping anybody but yourself, at best.


Which experts?
In this ugly mess, there are experts saying whatever you want to quote.
<cynical>The CDC and WHO have the best experts that money can buy</cynical>


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> View attachment 586536


If the UK actually had a Queen/King....
....She/He'd start with the Parliament, then the lawyers, then sweep HRM's Court benches with a broadsword.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> You know, I was hoping for figures more like 1-3 months -- some number that isn't indefinite.



They said they will evaluate every 2 weeks...

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## Lucky13 (Jun 29, 2020)

Some (which from now on, should used with "-") "experts" come out with statements one day, only to be followed the next day with something completely different and then yet again followed by....at this point you just go...._really!?...._and you doing a 🤦‍♂️! 

Case in point, our Mr. Tegnell in Sweden and his mob! 🙄😆😆😆😂😂😂


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## Zipper730 (Jun 29, 2020)

Gnomey

Why are people saying that wearing a mask dangerous? If masks were dangerous, wouldn't doctors be kicking off like flies?


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> Experts say that the N95 mask does not filter your exhaust, so you ain't helping anybody but yourself, at best.


X-spurts? You can find one to endorse any concept you choose. Ain't none of 'em infallible. Gotta do your homework.
I'm not looking for my N95 to "filter my exhaust", or my intake either. To do either of those perfectly would require an aircraft style tight fitting pressure regulated monstrosity with lung sized filters. No, all my N95 does, and I believe, does effectively, is reduce the range to which I spew potentially infectious particles in normal conversation. This, in conjunction with two meters social distance, is the best that can be hoped for.
Coughs and sneezes? All bets are off. I haven't coughed or sneezed in public since before the pandemic, but in a "what if" fake cough experiment, I dislodged my mask entirely and it wound up hanging from my chin.
That's the best I can hope for, and it's better than nothing.
Cheers,
Wes

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## Airframes (Jun 29, 2020)

Don't know if you've noticed TMP, but the UK has had a Queen or King for many, many centuries, the current Monarch, HRH Queen Elizabeth II, having reigned now for 67 years ...............


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Don't know if you've noticed TMP, but the UK has had a Queen or King for many, many centuries, the current Monarch, HRH Queen Elizabeth II, having reigned now for 67 years ...............


Powerless Royal Figurehead =/= King or Queen.
Should Elizabeth II utter like the thunder of the Almighty: "I'M TIRED OF YOUR SHIT!" what is the actual result? Banish/Exile from the UK? Pains and Penalties? Rollicking laughter? 30 column inches print in the Globe? England has not had a King/Queen for quite a while now.


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## Gnomey (Jun 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Gnomey
> 
> Why are people saying that wearing a mask dangerous? If masks were dangerous, wouldn't doctors be kicking off like flies?


Yes but ignorance and stupidity abounds everywhere and particularly across parts of certain countries...

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## Airframes (Jun 29, 2020)

Not worth the effort of a genuine reply .................

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## Lucky13 (Jun 29, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Yes but ignorance and stupidity abounds everywhere and particularly across parts of certain countries...



Ie....Sweden and Stockholm! 😉😆😂

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## Marcel (Jun 29, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> @Gnomey
> Why are people saying that wearing a mask dangerous? If masks were dangerous, wouldn't doctors be kicking off like flies?


Wearing a mask per see is not dangerous. But if you don’t know how to operate them, chances are that you’ll be the next centre of a micro outbreak. And I myself find the false sense of security quite dangerous for the ignorant mass.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Powerless Royal Figurehead =/= King or Queen.
> Should Elizabeth II utter like the thunder of the Almighty: "I'M TIRED OF YOUR SHIT!" what is the actual result? Banish/Exile from the UK? Pains and Penalties? Rollicking laughter? 30 column inches print in the Globe? England has not had a King/Queen for quite a while now.



Clearly, you don't understand the vital role the Queen provides. It is not the job of the Queen to lead the country; that's the job of the Prime Minister and his/her elected government. 

The reigning monarch provides vital checks and balances in the British political system. In the UK, military officers hold the Queen's Commission which empowers them to disobey any illegal orders issued by politicians. Similarly, the court system is headed by the Crown which helps ensure the courts are not subverted by the politics of the day.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Wearing a mask per see is not dangerous. But if you don’t know how to operate them, chances are that you’ll be the next centre of a micro outbreak. And I myself find the false sense of security quite dangerous for the ignorant mass.



Looking at the protests in Austin, TX, over the weekend, it would appear that the ignorant masses don't even want to consider wearing a mask. 

I'll keep wearing one, thanks!


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## Marcel (Jun 29, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Looking at the protests in Austin, TX, over the weekend, it would appear that the ignorant masses don't even want to consider wearing a mask.
> 
> I'll keep wearing one, thanks!


Well then I hope you know how to take them off and how to dispose them. I also hope you change them regularly and never touch them. And if you still keep your distance and wash your hands even while wearing your mask. Then by all means, wear them.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Yes but ignorance and stupidity abounds everywhere and particularly across parts of certain countries...


Just the countries with people in them.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Looking at the protests in Austin, TX, over the weekend, it would appear that the ignorant masses don't even want to consider wearing a mask.


Austin supposedly represents the "intelligentsia", the best of Texas. If they're "ignorant masses", I shudder for the rest of the state. But then again, I always have.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> England has not had a King/Queen for quite a while now.


Started with the Magna Carta, and it's been a slippery slope ever since. You don't have REAL power unless your name is Adolph or Josef or Mao.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 29, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Just the countries with people in them.


I was taught by my high school advanced biology professor that:
The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2020)

There are only 2 groups of people who truly scare me: the arrogant and the ignorant.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 29, 2020)

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups. That’s from my favorite refrigerator magnet.


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## swampyankee (Jun 29, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> There are only 2 groups of people who truly scare me: the arrogant and the ignorant.



There is a great deal of overlap between the two groups.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> There are only 2 groups of people who truly scare me: the arrogant and the ignorant.





swampyankee said:


> There is a great deal of overlap between the two groups.


What's scary is the Venn diagram showing People, Arrogant people, and Ignorant people. How much of the set of People is still there when these two overlapping groups are discounted?


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## gumbyk (Jun 29, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Started with the Magna Carta, and it's been a slippery slope ever since. You don't have REAL power unless your name is Adolph or Josef or Mao.


Really?
The thing with QE2 is that she works very much behind the scenes. Just because the power wielded isn't overt, doesn't mean its not there. When it does need to be displayed, then it is.

So, when a Commonwealth country went through a Government shutdown (which occurs frequently in some countries), she (through the Governor-General) dismissed the Prime Minister, and forced a new election. No real power? being able to dissolve an elected government, without there being a major constitutional crisis is hardly no real power.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 29, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Really?
> The thing with QE2 is that she works very much behind the scenes. Just because the power wielded isn't overt, doesn't mean its not there. When it does need to be displayed, then it is.
> 
> So, when a Commonwealth country went through a Government shutdown (which occurs frequently in some countries), she (through the Governor-General) dismissed the Prime Minister, and forced a new election. No real power? being able to dissolve an elected government, without there being a major constitutional crisis is hardly no real power.


When and where was this please? I'll gladly research!


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## gumbyk (Jun 29, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> When and where was this please? I'll gladly research!


Australian Constitutional Crisis - 1975. Its the only time its had to be done.
You might also want to look up Royal Assent as well - nothing gets passed into law without her (or her representative's) O.K. But this hasn't been withheld for so long that people don't consider it. From what I understand, she works at a much more 'unofficial' level to prevent her from having to withhold assent.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 29, 2020)

Ok guys, lets get this back on topic, less politics (me included).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 29, 2020)

Hard to argue with them, when many countries are very successful, and a few are doing very poorly.

WHO: 'The worst is yet to come' and the coronavirus pandemic is 'speeding up' because some countries aren't taking it seriously enough


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## wuzak (Jun 29, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Really?
> The thing with QE2 is that she works very much behind the scenes. Just because the power wielded isn't overt, doesn't mean its not there. When it does need to be displayed, then it is.
> 
> So, when a Commonwealth country went through a Government shutdown (which occurs frequently in some countries), she (through the Governor-General) dismissed the Prime Minister, and forced a new election. No real power? being able to dissolve an elected government, without there being a major constitutional crisis is hardly no real power.



The Queen has much less power than Kings and Queens of several centuries ago.

The Monarchy has not been able to levy taxes for ~900 years. Only Parliament can do that. If the monarch wanted more money (eg for a war), he/she would have to call Parliament and ask them to levy additional taxes.

And then there was the civil war in the 17th century, which was between Royalists and Parliamentarians over whether the monarch or Parliament had the right to legislate. The Parliamentarians won. Now the monarch has no legislative power, beyond the (theoretical) ability to block legislation.


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## wuzak (Jun 29, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Australian Constitutional Crisis - 1975. Its the only time its had to be done.
> You might also want to look up Royal Assent as well - nothing gets passed into law without her (or her representative's) O.K. But this hasn't been withheld for so long that people don't consider it. From what I understand, she works at a much more 'unofficial' level to prevent her from having to withhold assent.



I am unsure as to whether the Governor-General can block legislation in Australia. 

As to the Constitutional Crisis, some would describe that as a coup backed by the CIA. Certainly there were things that the Whitlam government were trying to do that would not please multi-national companies, such as buying back mining leases so that it would go towards the common wealth.

The crisis stemmed from the opposition blocking funding bills in the Senate (Blocking Supply) which would make the government unable to function. Once it was rejected twice, Whitlam could have gone to the Governor-General and sought a double-dissolution election, which meant that all representatives and all senators were up for election, and which the Governor-General could not refuse.

When he did go to the Governor-General it was to be sacked.

Since then the convention (so far unbroken) is that the Senate would not block supply (some funding can be blocked, but I think the main funding of the government cannot).

There are, apparently, correspondence on the matter between the Queen and the Governor-General held in the UK that have not been made public, despite several requests over the years.


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## swampyankee (Jun 29, 2020)

While this sideline into British and English constitutional history is fascinating, and does show the benefits of separating the head of state from the head of government, and may be relevant to how the UK responds to political crises, I'm not sure how it applies to the particular corona virus causing the current pandemic. 

The countries that seem to have done best are those where the people with expertise in those countries' public health departments have been able to see their recommendations implemented as _country-wide_ public policy (the exception seems to be Sweden, where it seems the public health authorities may not have had the best ideas). Pretending it doesn't exist or pretending that it can be shoved down to local governments hasn't worked.

Of course, public health experts change recommendations based on new data. This is the basic tenet of the scientific method: if something's not working, one changes it. Analogy: if you're driving on some back road in Maine and a moose is standing in the middle of it, you don't stay the course.

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## ThomasP (Jun 29, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 29
cases 35,861, recovered 31,225, hospitalized 4,031, deaths 1,435, tested 592,955*
fatality rate 4%
mortality rate 251.8 per million
test rate 104 per thousand
*Minnesota's governor announced today that we now have the ability to process 20,000 test kits per day - a goal that was announced on 17 April - so it took us ~73 days (10+ weeks) to accomplish. However, due to a combination of logistics and lack of cooperation on the part of the herd, we are only averaging a bit over 10,000/day.

(see the notes in my post#1,837)

Although it is taking longer than was planned (also longer than I thought it would take) - and taking into account what I am forced to conclude has been/still is an attempt by the current President to prevent a rapid increase and widespread level of testing - Minnesota has not done too badly in this area.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Don't come here unless you want to go into solitary for fourteen days.



What else is there to do in Vermont? Didn't people do that anyway? 



michaelmaltby said:


> but THAT is not unique to _this_ crisis or _this _administration.



Yeah, true, but that doesn't justify what is happening in the USA right now. The USA government's response could have and should have been better than it is and there really is no excuse for some of the sh*tf*ckery that's going on in that administration at the moment. To claim that the USA _always_ does stuff like this just doesn't cut it and doesn't give due justice to the victims of whats happening there right now.

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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How did we ever become a superpower?



The same as in the music charts. Making it to Number One is easy if you have a sure fire hit. Keeping it there is the hard bit.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> D.C. is not the center of the problem, it is where the attention is focused; the real responsibility for how Ca, NY, and Tx deal with the Chinese Corona Virus rests primarily with the governors of the states, the administrators of the Counties, and the Mayors of the cities. Not only are they unable to do so (like how many of us have managed a population of 5000+ through a plague?) they are both hobbled by, and hobbling others, under the influence of Partisanship (not politics).
> 
> On top of this there is the anarchist insurrection calling itself BLM/Antifa/etc who are acting to tear down what is America and plant their flag on the top of the smoldering rubble more than to address and redress any particular problems.
> 
> ...



Buck stops at the door of the Whitehouse, mate. To blame the state governments and the Chinese is just hollow and not acknowledging that the US government has got its response so wrong.

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## wuzak (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> The same as in the music charts. Making it to Number One is easy if you have a sure fire hit. Keeping it there is the hard bit.



Wrote a 4 chord song?

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## Zipper730 (Jun 30, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Wearing a mask per see is not dangerous. But if you don’t know how to operate them, chances are that you’ll be the next centre of a micro outbreak.


So you'll get infected.

Frankly I think wearing a bandanna over my face seems more practical. I have glasses which cover my eyes, and I think the next time I go out, I'm putting on the mask whether or not I get outside the car.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> What else is there to do in Vermont?


Hiking, biking, swimming, sailing, kayaking, fishing, hunting, (we're being overrun by an exploding bear population), glider rides (you sit upstream of the pilot), what more could you ask? Oh BTW, the bar hopping and the nightlife are kinda dragging right now, but they never were that great anyway. And you can always find a demonstration to participate in, just bring your mask and a couple yardsticks.
After you get out of solitary, that is.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 30, 2020)

swampyankee said:


> if you're driving on some back road in Maine and a moose is standing in the middle of it, you don't stay the course.


I tried to sidle past a moose standing in the middle of the Kankamangus holding up traffic one moonless night, and got a whopping big bash in the roof of my car and a broken window for my trouble. Ah, the days of young and foolish!

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 30, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hiking, biking, swimming, sailing, kayaking, fishing, hunting, (we're being overrun by an exploding bear population), glider rides (you sit upstream of the pilot), what more could you ask? Oh BTW, the bar hopping and the nightlife are kinda dragging right now, but they never were that great anyway. And you can always find a demonstration to participate in, just bring your mask and a couple yardsticks.
> After you get out of solitary, that is.


Sounds like a good deal. Nature wise that is. But being allergic to bears and demonstrations i will have to pass.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Buck stops at the door of the Whitehouse, mate. To blame the state governments and the Chinese is just hollow and not acknowledging that the US government has got its response so wrong.


Civics lesson: The US Constitution enumerates Federal powers; everything NOT enumerated to the Federal government remains a power/responsibility of the States. 
So: find the part of the Constitution that makes face masks, congregations, business closures, "safe distancing", or disease management a Federal matter, and you have reason to say that the buck stops at 1600 Pennsylvania ave. Per my reading, the Federal powers applicable to this plague include closing the National boarders, terminating visitor visas, and loaning help when asked for by the States. The Buck has 51 mailing addresses at which it stops.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Civics lesson: The US Constitution enumerates Federal powers; everything NOT enumerated to the Federal government remains a power/responsibility of the States.
> So: find the part of the Constitution that makes face masks, congregations, business closures, "safe distancing", or disease management a Federal matter, and you have reason to say that the buck stops at 1600 Pennsylvania ave. Per my reading, the Federal powers applicable to this plague include closing the National boarders, terminating visitor visas, and loaning help when asked for by the States. The Buck has 51 mailing addresses at which it stops.



Entirely agree that there isn't a single point of failure. I think it's also fair to say that there have been significant, and avoidable, failures at all levels of government. Unfortunately (as always) this dissolved into a debate over political leaning: the left are taking away freedoms and over-reaching while the right wants to focus solely on the economy regardless of the human cost (neither paradigm is accurate but we Americans like our binary choices). 

IMHO, one of the biggest failures has been of leadership. Words and actions matter, even if the office doesn't have actual responsibility. Lack of unified, or at least somewhat consistent, messaging from 1600 Pennsylvania down through the Governors to local mayors has led to the situation where people are bristling against the mandatory wearing of masks because so many political leaders refuse to wear them. 

It just frustrates (and frightens) me that we can't even come together to fight a global pandemic.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 30, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Entirely agree that there isn't a single point of failure.
> It just frustrates (and frightens) me that we can't even come together to fight a global pandemic.


This is not because of the pandemic, nor because of mixed signals, but because of a cultural change: the Greatest Generation followed by the Me Generation has now become the Ungovernable Generation. The Ungovernable Generation is a powder keg, the Pandemic is merely a spark.
I think I just tripped over the wire into Politics, so I'll stop here.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ok guys, lets get this back on topic, less politics (me included).



I will say it one more time...

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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> The Buck has 51 mailing addresses at which it stops.



I don't buy it. The US government is called the US government. It governs the USA. The pandemic has hit your country and your leadership is failing your country's people. Blaming state government is a cop out. Such is a time when leadership from the top is paramount and your government is not providing it.

Leadership lesson: Every day of Lockdown and for the subsequent two months afterwards, our Prime Minister got up in front of our country and gave the latest information that health professionals had. Every day. Our country's leader, not the mayors and county councils, but *OUR PRIME MINISTER*. Lockdown was strict and nationwide. When self appointed experts began ranting about opening the borders and getting back to work, our Prime Minister resisted because the health professionals advised her not to. 

That's leadership. From the very top. As a result, our government's efforts are being praised around the world for its handling of this virus. Can't say the same about the USA. Because of your government's mismanagement of this crisis, the USA is looked upon as how *not* to handle it. But, it's okay, right, it's everyone else's fault, not the President's.

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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> (we're being overrun by an exploding bear population),



Exploding Bears?! I thought their claws and brute strength was bad enough, and now they explode??!! (It was a joke at the state's expense, I will admit) It does sound pretty kewl.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jun 30, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> (we're being overrun by an exploding bear population)


Sounds horribly messy. Our bear population is a nuisance with trash can raids and such, but fortunately they aren't exploding.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Leadership lesson: The US government is called the US government. It governs the USA. The pandemic has hit your country and your leadership is failing your country's people. Blaming state government is a cop out. Such is a time when leadership from the top is paramount and your government is not providing it.
> 
> Every day of Lockdown and for the subsequent two months afterwards, our Prime Minister got up in front of our country and gave the latest information that health professionals had. Every day. Lockdown was strict and nationwide. To this day our government is warning about the resergence of this pandemic even though we got to a stage of complete absense of cases, but now numbers are reappearing, the government has agreed that borders must be kept closed and additional steps must be taken to prevent it from getting worse. Our country's leader, not the mayors and county councils, but *OUR PRIME MINISTER*.
> 
> That's leadership. From the very top. As a result, our government's efforts are being praised around the world for its handling of this virus. Can't say the same about the USA. Because of your government's mismanagement of this crisis, the USA is looked upon as how *not* to handle it. But, it's okay, right, it's everyone else's fault, not the President's.



While I agree with you 100%, we need to get away from the politics of this. I know it is hard, believe me I know it is tough, I am biting my tongue to keep from pointing out what should be obvious to even the most diehards. Believe me...

Let’s just leave the politics though before it degenerates into other things.


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## nuuumannn (Jun 30, 2020)

Yes, sorry Adler, I am trying not to make this about a particular party or point of view, but you are right.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Yes, sorry Adler, I am trying not to make this about a particular party or point of view, but you are right.



I hear you, and I agree with everything you said. It is just too difficult to keep from going into other areas we should not, and remain civil.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 30, 2020)

Well it’s official. The EU is lifting restrictions on international travel...

Except the United States. 

Will be evaluated every two weeks, but looks like I will not see my family this year, and they will not see their grandkids. 

So terribly sad and pathetic what is going on here...

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 30, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Exploding Bears?! I thought their claws and brute strength was bad enough, and now they explode??!!


Last week one exploded through my neighbor's barn door and killed four goats and nine chickens, then couldn't get back out through the inward-bent broken boards. He died of lead poisoning, administered by the game warden.
450+ pounds of bear, and the landowner wasn't allowed to keep the carcass. He's a traditional style black powder shooter, and bear grease is the absolute best bore lubricant and anti-rust coating there is. "Needed for biological research", he was told.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well it’s official. The EU is lifting restrictions on international travel...
> 
> Except the United States.
> 
> ...




I have the same problem in reverse. Our 2 oldest kids are Stateside attending university. We haven't seen them since Christmas and, as things stand, it's unlikely that we'll see them before next Christmas. Nor can we get them over to Europe to see their Grandmother.


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## Crimea_River (Jun 30, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well it’s official. The EU is lifting restrictions on international travel...
> 
> Except the United States.
> 
> ...



And you got lumped in with Russia and Brazil. Fine company. And yet....Hundreds of thousands of U.S. visitors are still crossing border into Canada each week | National Post


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## swampyankee (Jun 30, 2020)

There are several US states with voluntary quarantine [likely unenforceable] orders placed on travelers, even those from within the US. The trouble with this concept is that unless you have existing border controls in place, this makes the idea of not having a national protocol in place rather inane.

A foreign government isn't going to place different restrictions on a traveler is coming from Dallas, Seattle, or Boston as they're in the same country. They'll look at country-wide statistics and country-wide responses.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 30, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> I have the same problem in reverse. Our 2 oldest kids are Stateside attending university. We haven't seen them since Christmas and, as things stand, it's unlikely that we'll see them before next Christmas. Nor can we get them over to Europe to see their Grandmother.



That’s right, you are in Stuttgart. That is where our families are. When this finally over, we need to meet up for a beer when I get back over there.

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## wuzak (Jun 30, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> And you got lumped in with Russia and Brazil. Fine company. And yet....Hundreds of thousands of U.S. visitors are still crossing border into Canada each week | National Post



I saw something that said US citizens can't fly to Canada, but they can drive!


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 30, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I saw something that said US citizens can't fly to Canada, but they can drive!


I was in Derby Line the other day, and saw several cars go through the US border station northbound, then get turned around at the Canadian station and sent back. Make of it what you will, I didn't stick around to ask questions. The ICE folks didn't appear to be in a friendly mood.


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## Marcel (Jul 1, 2020)

So here in the Netherlands, a huge organisation for doctors had spoke against all Corona rules, including keeping distance and personal protection, claiming that the rules and precautions cost more lives then saving them. Also they say there is no scientific prove of the effectiveness of those measures. 

Unfortunately in Dutch:



> De huidige wereldwijde maatregelen, genomen ter bestrijding van SARS-CoV-2 schenden in hoge mate
> deze visie op gezondheid en de rechten van de mens. VWS gaat regelrecht in tegen de, in haar eigen nota vastgelegde, visie op gezondheidsbeleid en het potentieel ervan.
> De maatregelen betreffen onder meer verplichte sociale distantie, (semi-)verplichte isolatie,
> hygiënemaatregelen en verplichte persoonlijke beschermingsmaatregelen.6,7
> ...



Google translate:


> Current global measures taken to combat SARS-CoV-2 are highly violating
> this view of health and human rights. VWS directly contradicts the vision on health policy and its potential, as set out in its own memorandum.
> The measures include compulsory social distance, (semi-) compulsory isolation,
> hygiene measures and mandatory personal protection measures 6.7
> ...




Brandbrief - Brandbrief Nederlandse artsen over coronamaatregelen


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## Zipper730 (Jul 1, 2020)

There seems to be more trouble on the horizon, a new strain of influenza (Designation: G4 EA H1N1) has been identified as having pandemic potential coming out of China. This is clearly a very serious problem, and the last thing we need with one pandemic, is a pandemic on top of another.

There was a pandemic response unit that was created under the previous administration aimed at operating teams worldwide to identify and contain stuff like this at their source. It was disbanded in 2018 for a variety of reasons, and while it might have seemed a good idea at the time, the results were ultimately catastrophic.

Since pandemics are considered inevitable, the idea of being able to contain them right away is extremely important: I created a petition asking for this unit to be re-cosntituted and the petition goes to a number officials including the President, Senators & Congressmen (particularly those who are involved in appropriations, defense, and if I recall, possibly homeland security).

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## fubar57 (Jul 2, 2020)

Interesting....and utterly stupid if true...People in Alabama are throwing COVID-19 parties with a payout when one gets infected: official


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## rochie (Jul 2, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Interesting....and utterly stupid if true...People in Alabama are throwing COVID-19 parties with a payout when one gets infected: official


No accounting for stupid !


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## at6 (Jul 2, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Interesting....and utterly stupid if true...People in Alabama are throwing COVID-19 parties with a payout when one gets infected: official


Their parents must have been Brother and Sister.


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## Lucky13 (Jul 2, 2020)



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## ThomasP (Jul 2, 2020)

Minnesota report, June 30
cases 36,303, recovered 31,601, hospitalized 4,054 (270)*, deaths 1,441, tested 605,013*
fatality rate 4%
mortality rate 252.8 per million
test rate 106.1 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 1
cases 36,710, recovered ??,???, hospitalized 4,081 (260)*, deaths 1,446, tested 616,922*
fatality rate 3.9%
mortality rate 253.7 per million
test rate 108.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 2
cases 37,210, recovered 32,163, hospitalized 4,112 (271)*, deaths 1,458, tested 630,427*
fatality rate 3.9%
mortality rate 255.8 per million
test rate 110.6 per thousand

*re hospitalized x,xxx (xxx)
Currently, since the need for hospitalization is not in any way influenced by changing rates of testing, the number of hospitalized cases seems to be the best indicator of what is happening as far as the rate of spread is concerned. Because of this I will be including Minnesota's number of current hospitalizations in my future Minnesota report posts.

For anyone who is uncertain about what is going on in their own area, I would suggest you rely on the local hospitalization numbers to get a good feel for the true rate of spread. If the reporting authority is doing its job anywhere near competently, this will be your best measure unless/until the hospital system gets totally overwhelmed - and will probably still be the best option even then.


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## fubar57 (Jul 2, 2020)




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## Gnomey (Jul 3, 2020)

at6 said:


> Their parents must have Brother and Sister.


Well it is Alabama...

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## Vincenzo (Jul 5, 2020)

Italy report, 5th July 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 241,611, +1,301, deaths 34,861, +123, recovered 192,108, +3,217, active cases 14,642, -2,039, tests 5,638,288, +323,669, people tested 3,398,239, +178,219
fatality rate 14.4% (-0.1)
mortality rate 578 per million (+2)
test rate 93.5 per thousand (+5.4)
positive rate 7.1% (-0.4)
test rate this week 5,366 per million (-109)
positive rate this week 0.7% (-0.3)
new case rate this week 22 per million (-8)

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## ThomasP (Jul 6, 2020)

Minnesota report, July 3
cases 37,624, recovered 32,347, hospitalized 4,139(270), deaths 1,466, tested 645,172*
fatality rate 3.9%
mortality rate 257.2 per million
test rate 113.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 4 (No update due to holiday)
<
<
Minnesota report, July 5
cases 38,236, recovered 33,408, hospitalized 4,710(253), deaths 1,471, tested 674,015*
fatality rate 3.8%
mortality rate 258.1 per million
test rate 118.2 per thousand

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## Airframes (Jul 6, 2020)

And now, a suspected case of bubonic plague has been announced, in China !


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## pgeno71 (Jul 6, 2020)

Airframes said:


> And now, a suspected case of bubonic plague has been announced, in China !



I have not seen an article that mentions the number of current cases in China, but I think this is just alarmist journalism. Occasional cases do occur in countries with infected rodent populations. The southwest US can have as many as a dozen or more cases a year, but it's usually less. Stay away from prairie dogs.

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## Airframes (Jul 6, 2020)

Fortunately, there are no prairie dogs where I live, although there are plenty of Hippocroccofrogs !!

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Fortunately, there are no prairie dogs where I live, although there are plenty of Hippocroccofrogs !!



Stay away from Kangarillopigs, too!

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## Airframes (Jul 6, 2020)

At least they're better looking !

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2020)

Only if you drink 'em pretty.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> First, thank you for not using the aforementioned term for the virus, I appreciate the courtesy.


I've said I'll call it what I want to. Your thanks seem condescending. Please understand that what friction will arise will be worse to the extent that you strive to act as my language monitor.



Dash119 said:


> Second, I did not read the article but I'm curious to know if it referred to Covid-19 as "Kung Flu", or did you interject that term yourself?


I'm a troglodyte, and I hear the term in many places, including official US Gov't expressions.



Dash119 said:


> Third, I assumed your original use of this pun/malaprop was intended to be humorous, and yet your tone here appears to be quite serious...


 And? I call it the "Wuhan Kung Flu" as a serious malapropism.



Dash119 said:


> Fourth, unless the origin of Covid-19 moves the ball forwards in terms of how we address the current outbreak, I don't understand the need to label it with any origin. Is there some concern that someone will forget where the outbreak fist occurred?


Here is room for much reply. To be brief: "How we address" should be based on its origin, as well as the machinations that enhanced its spread. And indeed, there is much PC language-enforcement attempted with apparent intent to forget its origin.



Dash119 said:


> Should the CCP have been more open at the beginning of the outbreak? Yes. Would that have prevented it from becoming a Pandemic? Not likely.


 ABSOLUTELY. Had the CCP raised the proper flags and
1: Stopped incoming air flights, Chinese New Year notwithstanding
2: Stopped outgoing air flights, foreign employment of millions of Chinese nationals notwithstanding
3: Informed the world to quarantine anybody coming from China,
This outbreak would have been relatively small.

Flagging "dislike" etc on my speech ? You're not my mommy.


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## TheMadPenguin (Jul 6, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I have not seen an article that mentions the number of current cases in China, but I think this is just alarmist journalism. Occasional cases do occur in countries with infected rodent populations. The southwest US can have as many as a dozen or more cases a year, but it's usually less. Stay away from prairie dogs.


Here on the Panhandle, the dangers are mostly from the Crocroach. Not as carriers of Yersinia Pestis, but once you've been eaten it doesn't much matter why you're dead.
Once my 30-year-old, when 5, spotted a Hippopirhanamus. No more swimming there, thank you very much.

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## fubar57 (Jul 6, 2020)

Tick...tick...tick.....

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## TheMadPenguin (Jul 6, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Tick...tick...tick.....


We have ticks, but the danger there is Lyme's Disease, not Bubonic/Pneumonic/Septicemic plague.


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## Marcel (Jul 6, 2020)

Okay guys, the right and official name for this virus illness is COVID-19 and I would appreciate it if you guys refer to it that way. Corona is also accepted as the virus is classed in the family of the Corona viruses. Any other names, both emotionally or humor inspired ones are not accepted and could result in a few days vacation from this forum.

I hope I make myself clear.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 6, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Okay guys, the right and official name for this virus is COVID-19 and I would appreciate it if you guys refer to it that way. Corona is also accepted as it is classed in the family of the Corona viruses. Any other names, both emotionally or humor inspired ones are not accepted and could result in a few days vacation from this forum.
> 
> I hope I make myself clear.



Thank you, it should be obvious there is nothing PC about it.


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## pgeno71 (Jul 6, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Okay guys, the right and official name for this virus is COVID-19 and I would appreciate it if you guys refer to it that way. Corona is also accepted as it is classed in the family of the Corona viruses. Any other names, both emotionally or humor inspired ones are not accepted and could result in a few days vacation from this forum.
> 
> I hope I make myself clear.



I agree and accept and I am not trying to be a wise ass, but to be technical the name of the virus is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoVid-2). CoVid-19 refers to the disease caused by the pathogen.

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## MiTasol (Jul 6, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I saw something that said US citizens can't fly to Canada, but they can drive!


We sort of have the reverse here in Aus. People from Victoria, where it is out of control, are not allowed into Queensland by car but can fly in, and since some stupid time like 10am Monday those who fly in must hotel quarantine at their own expense for 14 days but those who landed ten minutes earlier do not have to. Officially Queensland had closed borders for the last two months but when my brother in law returned from Victoria June 30 he was waved straight through because he had Qld plates. When he tried to get a Covid test at the local public testing station he was told he needed paperwork to get one. He then went to the local hospital, told them he wanted a test as he had just returned from Vic, and they sent him to a GP to get a referral. Four days later he got his test.

NSW is now closing their border to Victoria and are calling Vic irresponsible yet NSW were the people that turned loose all the infected cruise ship passengers to fly all over Aus. _Hypocrisy thy name is politician._

Interestingly the majority of new cases in Vic are aged below 40.

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## MiTasol (Jul 6, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> in reply to _Dash119 said:__ Should the CCP have been more open at the beginning of the outbreak? Yes. Would that have prevented it from becoming a Pandemic? Not likely._
> Said
> ABSOLUTELY. Had the CCP raised the proper flags and
> 1: Stopped incoming air flights, Chinese New Year notwithstanding
> ...



The correct answer to that question is
_ABSOLUTELY. Had other countries reacted correctly when the CCP raised the alarm flags by banning all internal travel in China originating in Wuhan and
1: Stopped incoming air flights from China, and
2: Stopped outgoing air flights to China, Chinese New Year notwithstanding, and
3: Prohibited anybody coming from China through other countries, then:
this outbreak would have been relatively small._

Regardless of what country you are in, blaming China for your own governments stupidity, *especially when Taiwan was telling everyone this is what you absolutely must do RIGHT NOW*, is hypocrisy and the typical response of a spoilt brat who never accepts responsibility for their own actions and stupidity.

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## TheMadPenguin (Jul 6, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> The correct answer to that question is
> _ABSOLUTELY. Had other countries reacted correctly when the CCP raised the alarm flags by banning all internal travel in China originating in Wuhan and
> 1: Stopped incoming air flights from China, and
> 2: Stopped outgoing air flights to China, Chinese New Year notwithstanding, and
> ...



I have not done so and do not do so. The 52+ governments in charge of various parts of the US response to the pandemic have manifested very poor thought in many places.

Correct quote:
1: Stopped incoming air flights, Chinese New Year notwithstanding
2: Stopped outgoing air flights, foreign employment of millions of Chinese nationals notwithstanding
3: Informed the world to quarantine anybody coming from China,
This outbreak would have been relatively small.


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## Dash119 (Jul 6, 2020)

With my apologies to the Moderators;

The quotes by me in the posts above were made on June 17th, and I thought we had moved on. I was absent from the Forum for about five days as I had a heart attack on June 27th. So believe me when I tell you that stress is the last thing I need in my life at this point, and as such I have taken many deep breathes, and a nap, before diving back into this...

I am a newer member of this forum, and while I can appreciate the idea that politics is not allowed, how can you have a thread on this subject without it becoming political? These are the times in which we live, and frankly always have.

I believe that to a great degree, the biggest problem we face here in the United States is that we cannot have honest, intellectual dialogs between opposing groups. We tend to retreat to our respective corners and hurl invectives at one another. When I was younger, I watched my Fathers generation argue with my Grandfathers generation over Watergate. While these conversations were heated, they were civil, and when they were over everyone was still talking to each other.

I have never directly called another member a name, nor ascribed a negative trait to a member. I personally believe such name calling and labeling is a sign than the member cannot defend their position intellectually. I don't want to retreat to my corner, I want you to convince me my thinking on the subject needs some fine tuning or perhaps a complete re-think. I do not believe I have a monopoly on good ideas. 

This requires that all of us are at least respectful to other members, regardless of how their comments may make our blood boil. It also requires that we take into account those things that others find offensive, and avoid them if possible, and when necessary.

Highest Regards,

Kim Neelley

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## TheMadPenguin (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> I believe that to a great degree, the biggest problem we face here in the United States is that we cannot have honest, intellectual dialogs between opposing groups.
> 
> Highest Regards,
> 
> Kim Neelley



That is agreed as one of the bigger obstacles to either seeing one another's thinking , or changing our own.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 6, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Interestingly the majority of new cases in Vic are aged below 40.



Many ICU cases now too are people under 40.


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## Dash119 (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> First, thank you for not using the aforementioned term for the virus, I appreciate the courtesy.





TheMadPenguin said:


> I've said I'll call it what I want to. Your thanks seem condescending. Please understand that what friction will arise will be worse to the extent that you strive to act as my language monitor.



I am sorry that you interpreted that as condescending, it was not the intent. If you look back over your posts, you had actually stopped using the offensive term at that point in time. I assumed you were extending me some courtesy, as I had told you earlier that I personally found the term offensive.

The last thing I want is to be your language monitor, as your own words speak volumes But although we have the First Amendment here in the United States, not all speech is free...

I rated your post this morning with a "Dislike" because despite the progress we seemed to have made several weeks ago, with regards to this offensive term, you have reverted to using it. Not the highest form of debate, or courteous to those around you, just kind of dickish...

Regards,

Kim Neelley

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 6, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> That is agreed as one of the bigger obstacles to either seeing one another's thinking , or changing our own.



Then people need to start seeing facts instead of false truths and “alternative facts” because “daddy” said so.

No the forum will stick to it’s no politics rule. If you want to discuss politics, go to what ever flavor of the month’s forum you choose or facebook.

I will not let this forum degenerate into a left vs. right argument. Too many friendships have been lost over it.

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## Marcel (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> With my apologies to the Moderators;
> 
> The quotes by me in the posts above were made on June 17th, and I thought we had moved on. I was absent from the Forum for about five days as I had a heart attack on June 27th. So believe me when I tell you that stress is the last thing I need in my life at this point, and as such I have taken many deep breathes, and a nap, before diving back into this...


Wow! Hope you are recovering well. Take care.


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## Dash119 (Jul 6, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Wow! Hope you are recovering well. Take care.


Thank you Marcel. The prognosis is for a full recovery.

If your doctor recommends a change in lifestyle, follow their advice.

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## Marcel (Jul 6, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> I agree and accept and I am not trying to be a wise ass, but to be technical the name of the virus is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoVid-2). CoVid-19 refers to the disease caused by the pathogen.


Of course, I stand corrected.


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## Dash119 (Jul 6, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I will not let this forum degenerate into a left vs. right argument. Too many friendships have been lost over it.


I wasn't suggesting that the rule was wrong, just that the digression into politics on this particular topic was inevitable...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> I wasn't suggesting that the rule was wrong, just that the digression into politics on this particular topic was inevitable...



I do not disagree. The entire topic is political.

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## Marcel (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> Thank you Marcel. The prognosis is for a full recovery.
> 
> If your doctor recommends a change in lifestyle, follow their advice.


Glad to hear that. You’ve been lucky.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 6, 2020)

Dash119


I too wish you well, and a speedy recovery.


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## rochie (Jul 7, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> With my apologies to the Moderators;
> 
> The quotes by me in the posts above were made on June 17th, and I thought we had moved on. I was absent from the Forum for about five days as I had a heart attack on June 27th. So believe me when I tell you that stress is the last thing I need in my life at this point, and as such I have taken many deep breathes, and a nap, before diving back into this...
> 
> ...


get well soon Kim

Karl

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 7, 2020)

Hope you get well soon.


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## Dash119 (Jul 7, 2020)

Adler, Karl and Snauter01,

Thank you for your thoughts. I am on the mend.

Highest Regards,

Kim


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## Airframes (Jul 7, 2020)

Sounds like you've had a rough time there Kim, but good to know you're recovering.
Keep at it, but stay safe.


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## Zipper730 (Jul 7, 2020)

New York became the highest, and is now running quite low in cases.


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## fubar57 (Jul 7, 2020)

Dash119
With all here. A speedy recovery and stay safe


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## Dana Bell (Jul 7, 2020)

The naming of diseases after their original point of recognized infection is a long-standing medical tradition, so I neither take nor offer any offense with the use of the term "Wuhan flu/virus."

However, there is also a tradition for dropping the locality when folks _do _get offended, regardless of the original intent. The name Lyme disease originated in Old Lyme, Connecticut, and that name has proved an source of discomfort to some citizens of that town. The people of Norwalk, Connecticut, (my original home town) seemed to have learned that lesson. Combining the lesson with a bit of political pull, what was originally called the "Norwalk virus" is now generally known as the "Norovirus."

We know the recent problem began in Wuhan, China, not with visiting US servicemen as reported by the Chinese government. But Covid 19 seems to be the most commonly accepted name for this plague, so "Covid 19" it is!

Cheers,


Dana


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## buffnut453 (Jul 7, 2020)

My gripe with "Wuhan Flu" is that COVID-19 is NOT influenza. It never has been and it never will be. Yes, there are some similarities regarding symptoms and the Wuhan Flu does have a nice rhyming pattern to the name...but it is an entirely separate, genetically different virus. 

To me, associating it with the flu is part of the process of diminishing its impact despite the evidence before our eyes of the colossal toll it is taking, both human and financial.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 7, 2020)

Dana Bell said:


> The naming of diseases after their original point of recognized infection is a long-standing medical tradition, so I neither take nor offer any offense with the use of the term "Wuhan flu/virus."
> 
> However, there is also a tradition for dropping the locality when folks _do _get offended, regardless of the original intent. The name Lyme disease originated in Old Lyme, Connecticut, and that name has proved an source of discomfort to some citizens of that town. The people of Norwalk, Connecticut, (my original home town) seemed to have learned that lesson. Combining the lesson with a bit of political pull, what was originally called the "Norwalk virus" is now generally known as the "Norovirus."
> 
> ...



Here is the thing, if he/they were calling it the Wuhan Virus, or Chinese Virus that would be naming it after its origination location.

Calling it the Wuhan Kung Flu or whatever buzzword is the flavor of the day is a tasteless and childish attempt at mockery and an attempt to insult, and quite possibly rile people up. Just look where the phrase comes from.

And it has nothing to do with political correctness for that matter. Especially since most people that complain about PC are just trying to justify their own poor behavior and actions.

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## Marcel (Jul 7, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> My gripe with "Wuhan Flu" is that COVID-19 is NOT influenza. It never has been and it never will be. Yes, there are some similarities regarding symptoms and the Wuhan Flu does have a nice rhyming pattern to the name...but it is an entirely separate, genetically different virus.
> 
> To me, associating it with the flu is part of the process of diminishing its impact despite the evidence before our eyes of the colossal toll it is taking, both human and financial.


There are also people calling it a ‘cold virus’ which is essentially correct. Every year we get the cold from either Rhino viruses or corona viruses. But this one is just that little bit nastier.


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## at6 (Jul 7, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Okay guys, the right and official name for this virus illness is COVID-19 and I would appreciate it if you guys refer to it that way. Corona is also accepted as the virus is classed in the family of the Corona viruses. Any other names, both emotionally or humor inspired ones are not accepted and could result in a few days vacation from this forum.
> 
> I hope I make myself clear.


I thought Corona was a beer.

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## at6 (Jul 7, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> With my apologies to the Moderators;
> 
> The quotes by me in the posts above were made on June 17th, and I thought we had moved on. I was absent from the Forum for about five days as I had a heart attack on June 27th. So believe me when I tell you that stress is the last thing I need in my life at this point, and as such I have taken many deep breathes, and a nap, before diving back into this...
> 
> ...


Thankfully, you're still here with us. Hoping and praying for your speedy recovery.


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## at6 (Jul 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I do not disagree. The entire topic is political.


Just when I believed that it was going viral.

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## Zipper730 (Jul 7, 2020)

Great...


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## wuzak (Jul 7, 2020)

Just in case Covid 19 wasn't enough:

Bubonic plague: Case found in China's Inner Mongolia - CNN

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 7, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Just in case Covid 19 wasn't enough:
> 
> Bubonic plague: Case found in China's Inner Mongolia - CNN



Bubonic plague has always been around though. There is an average of 9 cases a year in the US for instance. 2015 there were 16 in the US.

World wide there are between 600 and 700 caes per year annually.

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## wuzak (Jul 7, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Bubonic plague has always been around though. There is an average of 9 cases a year in the US for instance. 2015 there were 16 in the US.
> 
> World wide there are between 600 and 700 caes per year annually.



True.

And it doesn't look likely that this will lead to an outbreak.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 7, 2020)

wuzak said:


> True.
> 
> And it doesn't look likely that this will lead to an outbreak.



Careful...

It is 2020.

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## at6 (Jul 8, 2020)

wuzak said:


> Just in case Covid 19 wasn't enough:
> 
> Bubonic plague: Case found in China's Inner Mongolia - CNN


Lately we keep being plagued by one thing or another from China.


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## nuuumannn (Jul 8, 2020)

at6 said:


> Their parents must have been Brother and Sister.



"This is mah wahf an' sistrr Ee-laine..."


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## nuuumannn (Jul 8, 2020)

at6 said:


> Lately we keep being plagued by one thing or another from China.



Might not ever stop. Certain regions of the world don't have the controls on health and hygiene that we might be used to where we live, but a well prepared and organised response from competent health officials will stop the spread of such things within our countries. If governments act accordingly and prevent a disease's spread, it won't be an issue.

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## Marcel (Jul 8, 2020)

Woke up with a sore throat and it’s getting worse. I have an appointment to be tested in half an hour. Don’t think it’s Covid but you never know. I’ll let you know the results.

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## ThomasP (Jul 8, 2020)

Minnesota report, July 6
cases 38,569, recovered 33,907, hospitalized 4,219(258)*, deaths 1,474, tested 679,693
fatality rate 3.8%
mortality rate 258.6 per million
test rate 119.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 7
cases 39,133, recovered 34,377, hospitalized 4,252(267)*, deaths 1,477, tested 685,247
fatality rate 3.8%
mortality rate 259.1 per million
test rate 120.2 per thousand

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases.


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## Airframes (Jul 8, 2020)

Hope it's negative Marcel !

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## rochie (Jul 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Woke up with a sore throat and it’s getting worse. I have an appointment to be tested in half an hour. Don’t think it’s Covid but you never know. I’ll let you know the results.


Quick block Marcel, dont want him infecting us through the 5G network ! 

Hope its negative and get well doon my friend

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## Marcel (Jul 8, 2020)

They say they’ll have result in 24-48 hours. We’ll see.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Woke up with a sore throat and it’s getting worse. I have an appointment to be tested in half an hour. Don’t think it’s Covid but you never know. I’ll let you know the results.



Hope you feel better.


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## Crimea_River (Jul 8, 2020)

Fingers crossed Marcel. My soar throat last month turned out to be non-Covid.


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## Dash119 (Jul 8, 2020)

Airframes, fubar57 and at6,

Thank you for your kind thoughts.

Highest Regards,

Kim


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## Gnomey (Jul 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Woke up with a sore throat and it’s getting worse. I have an appointment to be tested in half an hour. Don’t think it’s Covid but you never know. I’ll let you know the results.


Fingers crossed Marcel. There emu h les so fit going around currently than there was so high hence its negative.


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## at6 (Jul 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Woke up with a sore throat and it’s getting worse. I have an appointment to be tested in half an hour. Don’t think it’s Covid but you never know. I’ll let you know the results.


Will have to hope and pray that it isn't. Do please let us know.


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## MiTasol (Jul 8, 2020)

An interesting experiment to determine how effective mask are
Does This Photo Show the Difference a Mask Makes?

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## nuuumannn (Jul 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> They say they’ll have result in 24-48 hours. We’ll see.



Positive thoughts, Marcel. Hope you are okay.


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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> An interesting experiment to determine how effective mask are
> Does This Photo Show the Difference a Mask Makes?


Well, not really. What you see is bacteria. They are a 1000 times bigger than viruses. Of course they are effective against bacteria. After all, that’s why surgeons wear them. This is like saying “my fence can keep the cows in, so it should also be able to keep the flies out”.

Edit: read the text and they agree with what I said. One thing I don’t agree with is the droplets. This only measures big droplets and only up front. Korean scientists showed that with non-medical masks and most medical as well, turbulent air from coughing is redirected sideways, vortexing around the mask through the side. Had you had been standing next to this person wearing the mask, you would have gotten the full blast. Also the mask would have been soaked with mouth liquid and virus particles, so after this you should discard the mask.

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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

Thanks for the well wishes, guys. Up until now the illness follows the normal pattern of a common cold. I still don’t believe I’ve got COVID, but hopefully I’ll get the results today.


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## wuzak (Jul 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Thanks for the well wishes, guys. Up until now the illness follows the normal pattern of a common cold. I still don’t believe I’ve got COVID, but hopefully I’ll get the results today.



Good luck Marcel.

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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

Thanks Wuzak. I’m not too worried. At the moment they do thousands of tests a day, less than 1% is positive. As you will only be tested if you display symptoms, I guess all these other people have the common cold, which as the name suggests is far more common than COVID at the moment.


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## fubar57 (Jul 9, 2020)

Hoping for the best Marcel


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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

Still no result. They are taking their time. I guess they first call the positive ones


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## Airframes (Jul 9, 2020)

Probably, and no news is ( hopefully ) good news.


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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

Yup confirmed. Test was negative. 

Still wondering, with all the precautions, staying home, keeping distance, I even wear the freaking masks although I don’t believe in them. And still I got a cold virus.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yup confirmed. Test was negative.
> 
> Still wondering, with all the precautions, staying home, keeping distance, I even wear the freaking masks although I don’t believe in them. And still I got a cold virus.



Well they call it common for a reason...

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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well they call it common for a reason...


I think I got it from the mask


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## at6 (Jul 9, 2020)

You have to remember that the cold virus resides within you. It is dormant until something triggers it.

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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

at6 said:


> You have to remember that the cold virus resides within you. It is dormant until something triggers it.


Ah that could explain it. I started swimming again last week. Could be the trigger.


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## Dash119 (Jul 9, 2020)

If you really want fast test results, just have a heart attack. I was negative and the results took less than four hours...

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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> If you really want fast test results, just have a heart attack. I was negative and the results took less than four hours...


The quick test is less reliable. So I prefer the slower one.


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## Gnomey (Jul 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Ah that could explain it. I started swimming again last week. Could be the trigger.


This is the likely reason Marcel. Glad to hear it was negative.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 9, 2020)

Saw this on FB, and got a good chuckle out of it.

*Covid hits Europe*

European governments: Hey we need to lock down for a while and everyone wear masks.

European citizens: Ok good idea

American citizens: haha that'll never happen here silly Europeans

*Covid hits America*

American government: Hey we need to lock down for a while and everyone wear masks

American citizens: F*k you open everything I'm not wearing a mask I want a haircut

American government: Guys c'mon really...

American citizens: *points machine gun in governments face* Open everything now we need hamburgers

*Covid gets better in Europe*

European governments: hey guys good job you all did your part, we can start opening now just still wear a mask please

European citizens: Sweet thanks glad we could help

American government: Since y'all are mad we'll start reopening but please wear a mask

American citizens: F*k you I don't want to wear a mask the virus is fake anyway

*Covid gets worse in America*

American government: Guys seriously if you don't wear a mask we'll have to lock down again nobody wants to do that.

American citizens: F*k you I'm not wearing a mask! Freedom!!

European governments: Guys you did a great job feel free to travel and go hang out now enjoy your summer just bring your masks and be safe

European citizens: Yay summer! I'm gonna go visit my friends!

American citizens: They just want to control us and take our rights away man.

*Covid keeps getting worse in America*

American government: Guys c'mon we told you.....now we need to lock down again please please wear a mask please

American citizens: They just want to control us!! Masks are tyranny!!

European governments: We gotta quarantine America, don't invite them to your summer parties

European citizens: Yea good idea those people are crazy.

American citizens: FREEDOM!!!

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## nuuumannn (Jul 9, 2020)

And now this...

Coronavirus: COVID-19 may not have originated in China - Oxford University expert


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## wuzak (Jul 9, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> If you really want fast test results, just have a heart attack. I was negative and the results took less than four hours...



I'm a bit late, but glad to hear you survived your scare Dash.

Hope all is well now.


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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> And now this...
> 
> Coronavirus: COVID-19 may not have originated in China - Oxford University expert


Well, mr Jefferson is a bit controversial. He likes coming up with radical theories.


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## nuuumannn (Jul 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Well, mr Jefferson is a bit controversial. He likes coming up with radical theories.



Can't say I know anything about him. Is his theory incorrect though?


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## Marcel (Jul 9, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Can't say I know anything about him. Is his theory incorrect though?


Don’t know, it’s not been confirmed though. And part of his reasoning is not based on fact. He claims that Samoa got the Spanish flu without having had contact with the outside world. This is not true, the flu was brought there by passengers on a ship. I just looked that one up.


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## nuuumannn (Jul 9, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Don’t know, it’s not been confirmed though. And part of his reasoning is not based on fact. He claims that Samoa got the Spanish flu without having had contact with the outside world. This is not true, the flu was brought there by passengers on a ship. I just looked that one up.




Yeah, I posted some info about Samoa's battle with the Spanish flu earlier in this thread. The ship came from New Zealand and went to Apia in Western Samoa, which was ravaged by the flu, but Jefferson is partially right as American Samoa remained Spanish flu free, thanks to the efforts of its US governor who quarantined the island and prevented New Zealand ships from visiting there.

As a contrast to what's happening today, New Zealand was largely responsible for the Spanish flu spreading throughout the Pacific and as far as South Africa following the Great War; New Zealand ships carrying infected crew and passengers transmitted the virus around the world.


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## ThomasP (Jul 10, 2020)

Minnesota report, July 8
cases 39,589, recovered 34,902, hospitalized 4,272(265)*, deaths 1,485, tested 692,970
fatality rate 3.8%
mortality rate 260.5 per million
test rate 121.6 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 9
cases 40,163, recovered 35,193, hospitalized 4,305(251)*, deaths 1,490, tested 705,440
fatality rate 3.7%
mortality rate 261.4 per million
test rate 123.8 per thousand

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has ranged up and down between 251 and 274 over the last 10 days, indicating a "slow" but steady rate of spread.


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## Dash119 (Jul 10, 2020)

wuzak said:


> I'm a bit late, but glad to hear you survived your scare Dash.
> 
> Hope all is well now.


Had my first post-hospital visit to the Cardiologist today, so far everything looks good.

Thank you for your thoughts,

Kim

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## Airframes (Jul 10, 2020)

Good to know you're on the mend.


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## Crimea_River (Jul 10, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> Had my first post-hospital visit to the Cardiologist today, so far everything looks good.
> 
> Thank you for your thoughts,
> 
> Kim



I was going to give you a bacon but thought that it might not be a good idea! Glad things are better for you.

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## Shortround6 (Jul 10, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I was going to give you a bacon but thought that it might not be a good idea! Glad things are better for you.




we will have to give him blasphemous bacon (T****Y)

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## Dash119 (Jul 10, 2020)

Crimea_River said:


> I was going to give you a bacon but thought that it might not be a good idea! Glad things are better for you.





Shortround6 said:


> we will have to give him blasphemous bacon (T****Y)



Ouch. You guys really know how to kick a guy when he's down. I haven't been able to wrap my head around the idea of Bacon that starts life as a bird...

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## at6 (Jul 11, 2020)

Dash119 said:


> Ouch. You guys really know how to kick a guy when he's down. I haven't been able to wrap my head around the idea of Bacon that starts life as a bird...


That's only because you still don't believe that pigs can fly.

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## ThomasP (Jul 11, 2020)

LOL! good one.


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## rednev (Jul 11, 2020)

RAAF F111c aka pig proved they can

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## ThomasP (Jul 13, 2020)

Minnesota report, July 10
cases 40,767, recovered 35,442, hospitalized 4,329(227)*, deaths 1,495, tested 725,825
fatality rate 3.7%
mortality rate 262.2 per million
test rate 127.3 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 11
cases 41,571, recovered 36,012, hospitalized 4,366(241)*, deaths 1,499, tested 742,095
fatality rate 3.6%
mortality rate 263 per million
test rate 130.2 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 12
cases 42,281, recovered 36,582, hospitalized 4,399(251)*, deaths 1,502, tested 755,052
fatality rate 3.6%
mortality rate 263.5 per million
test rate 132.4 per thousand

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has ranged up and down between 227 and 274 over the last 15 days, indicating a "slow" but steady rate of spread.

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## Vincenzo (Jul 13, 2020)

I'm sorry for the late
Italy report 12th July, 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 243,061, +1,450, deaths 34,954, +93, recovered 194,928, +2,820, active cases 13,179, -1,463, tests 5,938,811, +300,523, people tested 3,568,887, +170,648
fatality rate 14.4% (=)
mortality rate 580 per million (+2)
test rate 98.5 per thousand (+5)
positive rate 6.8% (-0.3)
test rate this week 4,982 per million
positive rate this week 0.8% (+0.1)
new case rate this week 24 per million (+2)

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## Marcel (Jul 13, 2020)

We seem to have a slow increase in number of patients. It’s still quite low, but we’re not out of the woods yet.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 13, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We seem to have a slow increase in number of patients. It’s still quite low, but we’re not out of the woods yet.



We keep going deeper into the woods...lol


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## Marcel (Jul 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We keep going deeper into the woods...lol


Yeah, our numbers are nothing compared to the great 4, of which the USA is number one.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 13, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yeah, our numbers are nothing compared to the great 4, of which the USA is number one.

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## Marcel (Jul 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 587977


“America first!”

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## gumbyk (Jul 13, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> Yeah, I posted some info about Samoa's battle with the Spanish flu earlier in this thread. The ship came from New Zealand and went to Apia in Western Samoa, which was ravaged by the flu, but Jefferson is partially right as American Samoa remained Spanish flu free, thanks to the efforts of its US governor who quarantined the island and prevented New Zealand ships from visiting there.
> 
> As a contrast to what's happening today, New Zealand was largely responsible for the Spanish flu spreading throughout the Pacific and as far as South Africa following the Great War; New Zealand ships carrying infected crew and passengers transmitted the virus around the world.



I think that's part of the reason why our response was so drastic. I heard a couple of politicians say that we didn't want a repeat of that happening. That, and we had just recently exported measles there as well.


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## N4521U (Jul 13, 2020)

Here in Oz, we are awaiting the Second wave.
Not the surfing type.
Why people still continue to gather in groups of a hundred or more is just beyond me.


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## MiTasol (Jul 13, 2020)

Marcel said:


> “America first!”



Actually America is 9th but unlike most other countries it is fast rising up the table (404 to 417 in two days). Ninth highest deaths per million population that is.





Or 23rd if you are counting tests per million population.


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## MiTasol (Jul 13, 2020)

Interesting article in today's news calculating cost of home versus hotel quarantine.
Should all coronavirus patients be put into hotel quarantine? We did the maths 

Not discussed is the flow on if one of the other people in the home becomes asymptomatic and goes to work.

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## at6 (Jul 13, 2020)

We are shutting down again. No church services, no malls, no hair cuts, no nails or perms for the hens, no bars[pubs], no dine in, no movies, no nothing. Dumb a$$ people ruined everything.

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## N4521U (Jul 14, 2020)

This is the Virus version of a Neutron bomb.
All the people, every living organism is dade,
but all the Stuff remains.

All them hot rods and custom cars, yeeeeeow.


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## gumbyk (Jul 14, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Interesting article in today's news calculating cost of home versus hotel quarantine.
> Should all coronavirus patients be put into hotel quarantine? We did the maths
> 
> Not discussed is the flow on if one of the other people in the home becomes asymptomatic and goes to work.


And its keeping the hotel employees employed, who would otherwise be on unemployment.

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## ThomasP (Jul 16, 2020)

Minnesota report, July 13
cases 42,772, recovered 37,199, hospitalized 4,424(247)*, deaths 1,504, tested 768,989
fatality rate 3.5%
mortality rate 263.9 per million
test rate 134.9 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 14
cases 43,170, recovered 37,749, hospitalized 4,452(236)*, deaths 1,510, tested 777,614
fatality rate 3.5%
mortality rate 264.9 per million
test rate 136.4 per thousand
<
<
Minnesota report, July 15
cases 43,742, recovered 38,179, hospitalized 4,495(254)*, deaths 1,518, tested 790,497
fatality rate 3.5%
mortality rate 266.3 per million
test rate 138.7 per thousand

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has ranged up and down between 227 and 274 over the last 20 days, indicating a "slow" but steady rate of spread.


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## MiTasol (Jul 16, 2020)

Unfortunately this seems to be the rational in far too many countries on both sides of politics. The Australian Federal government says keeping schools open is safe. The reality is recognized in many other countries - ie the children take it home to the parents and grandparents. Maybe the Feds hope to massively reduce the budget deficit by eliminating all those on the pension.

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## MiTasol (Jul 18, 2020)



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## Gnomey (Jul 18, 2020)




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## MiTasol (Jul 19, 2020)

Funny thing going on with the Corona virus worldometer site.
Two days ago the USA had 946 new deaths from CV-19





Yesterday they had 813 new deaths





Today they have none.


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## fubar57 (Jul 19, 2020)

Obviously the world is winning. Open everything back up again


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## Dash119 (Jul 19, 2020)

10th Place
2nd Place
7th Place

It is so hard to keep track of our standing in the world...

And Canada didn't even place in the top ten once.


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## ThomasP (Jul 19, 2020)

A few days ago President Trump ordered the CDC and other Federal agencies to send their data on the Corona virus (ie cases, rate of spread, hospitalizations, deaths, etc) through the White House rather than directly to the various news and other non-Federal reporting agencies. I heard on the news last night that said decision had been reversed, but we will have to see what happens. So the numbers may be odd for the next few days, at least, while the President and his buddies play with themselves.

You can find the US number of cases and deaths on the Johns Hopkins website here: "Cumulative Cases" although the numbers will be about 1 day behind (it is 03:00 on the 19th here, too early for the update for the 18th, so the last listing is for the 17th with 77,243 new cases and 943 new deaths).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Funny thing going on with the Corona virus worldometer site.
> Two days ago the USA had 946 new deaths from CV-19
> View attachment 588903
> 
> ...



Yeah because it has not updated. Whenever the day starts new, it resets to zero. Check back in a few hours.


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## Marcel (Jul 21, 2020)

We are having an increasing number of new contamination again. The ratio is over 1.2 again. I think most people thought it was over and stopped following the rules.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> We are having an increasing number of new contamination again. The ratio is over 1.2 again. I think most people thought it was over and stopped following the rules.



Sorry to hear that. If you makes you feel better, we are way higher than 1.2 in many places, and people still don’t follow the rules.


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## Marcel (Jul 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sorry to hear that. If you makes you feel better, we are way higher than 1.2 in many places, and people still don’t follow the rules.


Hope we won’t go that way. I also hope we don’t have to go in another lockdown.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Hope we won’t go that way. I also hope we don’t have to go in another lockdown.



For that to happen you need people to stop being selfish and stupid, and follow the rules, not fight them every step of the way.


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## Marcel (Jul 21, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> For that to happen you need people to stop being selfish and stupid, and follow the rules, not fight them every step of the way.


Well, that’s basically what caused this upsurge I suspect. Many younger people thought that corona was history and they could party like its 1999.


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## fubar57 (Jul 21, 2020)

Same as here....https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...covid-19-infections-in-young-people-1.5655401


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 21, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Well, that’s basically what caused this upsurge I suspect. Many younger people thought that corona was history and they could party like its 1999.



Here it depends on what side of the river you are. On this side its mostly your 35 to 45 “It’s all a hoax Freedom Fighters” crowd that are spreading it. On the other side as you get closer to the city it appears to be the younger “I’m invincible” crowd that are driving up the score.


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## at6 (Jul 22, 2020)

Hey, let's host a Covid Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ThomasP (Jul 22, 2020)



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## Marcel (Jul 22, 2020)

at6 said:


> Hey, let's host a Covid Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


We did that a month ago using Zoom.

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## Vincenzo (Jul 22, 2020)

I'm sorry i missed my weekly report,
i've this thread on watch but i don't get notices, i hope you all are ok
Italy report 19th July, 5 pm cest, weekly changes
cases 244,434, +1,373, deaths 35,045, +91, recovered 196,949, +2,021, active cases 12,440, -739, tests 6,238,049, +299,238, people tested 3,740,447, +171,560
fatality rate 14.3% (-0.1)
mortality rate 581 per million (+1)
test rate 103.4 per thousand (+4.9)
positive rate 6.5% (-0.3)
test rate this week 4,961 per million (-21)
positive rate this week 0.8% (=)
new case rate this week 23 per million (-1)

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## at6 (Jul 23, 2020)

Now it's in the news that the anti-bodies may cease to be effective after 90 days. If that's the case, why waste money on a vaccine that needs boosters every few weeks?


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## michaelmaltby (Jul 23, 2020)

.... if that is the case, the 'strategy' will have to be re-tweaked, but a 90 day vaccine would have a role for protecting health care workers or selective target populations, IMO


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## Crimea_River (Jul 23, 2020)

Seems we are well on our way to round 2. City of Calgary has mandated masks to be worn in all indoor public spaces and transit as of Aug 1.

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## Marcel (Jul 23, 2020)

at6 said:


> Now it's in the news that the anti-bodies may cease to be effective after 90 days. If that's the case, why waste money on a vaccine that needs boosters every few weeks?


It’s not just about anti bodies in the blood at6. It’s preparing the immune system so it can react faster.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 23, 2020)

Interesting read:

Can Masks Save Us From More Lockdowns? Here's What The Science Says

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## Zipper730 (Jul 23, 2020)

While I think people should be wearing masks and there's clearly a serious problem: I'm curious if the criteria they're using for classifying cases is overly nebulous. It's one thing when you lack adequate testing and list some cases under some kind of criteria like "pending", or even "pending, assumed positive" until tests are done -- if proved negative, by test, they should be classified as negative.

Otherwise, it'll undermine all the statistical data.


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## MiTasol (Jul 23, 2020)



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## MiTasol (Jul 23, 2020)

Marcel said:


> It’s not just about anti bodies in the blood at6. It’s preparing the immune system so it can react faster.



Agreed but there is mounting evidence that Covid is like Dengue - you have far more serious symptoms with each following case so you chance of dying increases with each relapse.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 24, 2020)

at6 said:


> Now it's in the news that the anti-bodies may cease to be effective after 90 days. If that's the case, why waste money on a vaccine that needs boosters every few weeks?



This article is somewhat more reassuring:

How Long Will Immunity To The Coronavirus Last?


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## at6 (Jul 24, 2020)

That is some what hopeful. Only time will tell if the "experts" are right. In the meantime I am going to do all that I can to avoid even the slightest contact with an infected person.


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## ThomasP (Jul 24, 2020)

Minnesota report, current overall totals as of July 23
cases 48,721, recovered 42,524, hospitalized 4,818(282)*, deaths 1,561, tested 905,315
fatality rate 3.2%
mortality rate 273.8 per million
test rate 158.8 per thousand

Minnesota 8 day amalgamated report, for July 16-23
new cases 4,377
new hospitalizations 292
new deaths 35**

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 227 and 283 over the last 23 days.
**There were 5 deaths that were probably due to COVID-19 which are not included in the total deaths or new deaths. This is due to no test having been performed.


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## Gnomey (Jul 24, 2020)

at6 said:


> That is some what hopeful. Only time will tell if the "experts" are right. In the meantime I am going to do all that I can to avoid even the slightest contact with an infected person.


Exactly. It’s far too new a human pathogen to be able to ascertain exactly what I’ll happen with immunity. Still lots to be learnt.


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## MiTasol (Jul 24, 2020)

My apologies to the female members but this message mainly needs to go to certain males.

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## at6 (Jul 25, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> My apologies to the female members but this message mainly needs to go to certain males.
> View attachment 589608


That's an absolutely perfect analogy. If females are offended, too bad. The message applies to everyone.


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## at6 (Jul 25, 2020)

Gnomey said:


> Exactly. It’s far too new a human pathogen to be able to ascertain exactly what I’ll happen with immunity. Still lots to be learnt.



I'm not gay but I won't even let you kiss me. Infected females, maybe. That depends on whether I really wish to die or not and if she's really super desirable.


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## Vincenzo (Jul 26, 2020)

Italy report 26 July 5 pm CEST, weekly changes
cases 246,118, + 1,684, deaths 35,107, +62, recovered 198,446, +1,497, active cases 12,565, +125 (first up after weeks), tests 6,560,572, +322,523, people testes 3,922,995, +182,548
fatality rate 14.3% (=)
mortality rate 582 per million (+1)
test rate 108.8 per thousand (+5.4)
positive rate 6.3% (-0.2)
test rate this week 5,347 per million (+386)
positive rate this week 0.9% (+0.1)
new case rate this week 28 per million (+5)

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## ThomasP (Aug 1, 2020)

Minnesota amalgamated report, for July 24-31 (8 days)
new cases estimated to be ~4,000, actual number unknown due to delays in testing
new hospitalizations 266
new deaths 39

Minnesota report, July 31
cases 54,463, recovered 47,289, hospitalized 5,155(312)*, deaths 1,600, tested 1,024,916
fatality rate 2.9%
mortality rate 280.7 per million
test rate 179.8 per thousand

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases.


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## Vincenzo (Aug 2, 2020)

Italy report 2 August, 5 pm CEST, weekly changes (after this i get out the hour info, i suspect that now the report is updated only at the day before midnight)
cases 248,070, + 1,952, deaths 35,154, + 47, recovered 200,460, +2,014, active cases 12,456, -109, tests 6,916,765, +356,193, people tested 4,118,068, +195,073
fatality rate 14.2% (-0.1)
mortality rate 583 per million (+1)
test rate 114.7 per thousand (+5.9)
positive rate 6% (-0.3)
test rate this week 5,905 per million (+558)
positive rate this week 1% (+0.1)
new case rate this week 32 per million (+4)

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## ThomasP (Aug 5, 2020)

Addition to Minnesota COVID-19 Report

Hospitalized case rate 9.4%
Hospitalized cases in ICU rate 2.7% (ie 28% of hospitalized cases are either admitted directly to ICU or eventually end up in ICU)

Week Ending May 14______Median Age
All cases____________________44
Non-hospitalized cases_______43
Hospitalizes cases___________ 61
Hospitalized cases in ICU_____62
Deaths_____________________ 83


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## ThomasP (Aug 8, 2020)

Minnesota report, current overall totals as of August 7
cases 59,185, recovered 51,940, hospitalized 5,458(300)*, deaths 1,640, tested 1,121,299
fatality rate 2.8%
mortality rate 287.7 per million
test rate 196.7 per thousand

Minnesota 7 day amalgamated report, for August 1-7
new cases estimated to be ~3,000, actual number unknown due to delays in testing
new hospitalizations 230
new deaths 40**
positivity rate 4.5%

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 227 and 328 over the last 30 days.
**There were 2 deaths that were probably due to COVID-19 which are not included in the total deaths or new deaths. This is due to no test having been performed.

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## Vincenzo (Aug 10, 2020)

Italy report 9th August, weekly changes
Cases 250,566, +2,496, deaths 35,205, +51, recovered 202,098, +1,638, active cases 13,263, +807 (again positive and over 6x of 2 week ago), tests 7,249,844, +333,079, people tested 4,296,730, +178,662
fatality rate 14.1% (-0.1)
mortality rate 584 per million (+1)
test rate 120.2 per thousand (+5.5)
positive rate 5.8% (-0.2)
test rate this week 5,522 per million (-383)
positive rate this week 1.4% (+0.4)
new case rate this week 41 per million (+9)

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## MiTasol (Aug 10, 2020)

And New Zealand has just gone 100 days without a single new local covid infection.
 
Seems to me that closing hard and fast and suffering for a short time does far less damage to the economy than staying half open _to "save the economy"._

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## nuuumannn (Aug 11, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> And New Zealand has just gone 100 days without a single new local covid infection.



The USA has warned about travelling to New Zealand because apparently we have 29 active cases in obligatory quarantine!


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## buffnut453 (Aug 11, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> The USA has warned about travelling to New Zealand because apparently we have 29 active cases in obligatory quarantine!



Yeah...we just came back to Europe after a spot of leave back in the States. There is a supreme irony when COVID cases in much of Europe are largely under control. COVID deaths in Europe are running at 200-300 per day for a population of 740-ish million compared to daily deaths in the US at over 1000 for a population of 360 million...and yet the US is warning its population not to travel to Europe because of the COVID threat?

"Pot to kettle. State colour, please. Over."

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## MiTasol (Aug 11, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> The USA has warned about travelling to New Zealand because apparently we have 29 active cases in obligatory quarantine!



Obviously that report was prepared by the Department of MISinformation.

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## nuuumannn (Aug 11, 2020)

Well, it's happened. Our run of no community cases had ended. New Zealand is now back in Lockdown! Well, a part of it; the city of Auckland has a Level Three Lockdown in place for three days, with the rest of the country in a Level Two situation of no large gatherings and contact tracing, as well as masks etc. This is after four new community cases from the same family who has had no overseas travel.

New Zealand's Alert Levels are changing at 12 noon on Wednesday 12 August

Covid 19 coronavirus: Auckland in lockdown, rest of country in level 2 - Four cases of community transmission


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 11, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...we just came back to Europe after a spot of leave back in the States. There is a supreme irony when COVID cases in much of Europe are largely under control. COVID deaths in Europe are running at 200-300 per day for a population of 740-ish million compared to daily deaths in the US at over 1000 for a population of 360 million...and yet the US is warning its population not to travel to Europe because of the COVID threat?
> 
> "Pot to kettle. State colour, please. Over."



The misinformation campaign here Is through the roof.

If you tell a lie enough, it becomes the truth.

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## michaelmaltby (Aug 11, 2020)

" a lie has spread around the world before truth has time to get his trousers on"
Churchill, IIRC, and those words before social media.


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## Glider (Aug 12, 2020)

There may be some light at the end of the tunnel. According to the John Hopkins site the UK yesterday had 2 new cases and 0 deaths. Even if that's a statistical one off things may be turning

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## MiTasol (Aug 14, 2020)



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## Zipper730 (Aug 15, 2020)

I'm curious how bad they expect this to get during the Autumn and Winter months?


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## buffnut453 (Aug 15, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> I'm curious how bad they expect this to get during the Autumn and Winter months?



The big fear is the impact on hospital capacity once flu season starts. With COVID already stressing medical services in some US cities, there just aren't beds available to also treat the usual number of people who are hospitalized due to seasonal flu.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...we just came back to Europe after a spot of leave back in the States. There is a supreme irony when COVID cases in much of Europe are largely under control. COVID deaths in Europe are running at 200-300 per day for a population of 740-ish million compared to daily deaths in the US at over 1000 for a population of 360 million...and yet the US is warning its population not to travel to Europe because of the COVID threat?
> 
> "Pot to kettle. State colour, please. Over."


If you took the time to read the State Department's press release, travel to ANY destination for Americans is discouraged to help arrest transmission - coming or going.


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## MiTasol (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> The big fear is the impact on hospital capacity once flu season starts. With COVID already stressing medical services in some US cities, there just aren't beds available to also treat the usual number of people who are hospitalized due to seasonal flu.



I *hope *the US has a similar flu season to Australia but given how many Americans refuse to distance *and *refuse to take any other precautions I doubt that it will occur.

In the Aus Capital Territory last year 450+ died of the flu. This year less than 10% of that died from the same cause. 

Social distancing and better hygiene made all the difference. Masks were a rarity so do not factor in or out.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 15, 2020)

GrauGeist said:


> If you took the time to read the State Department's press release, travel to ANY destination for Americans is discouraged to help arrest transmission - coming or going.



Trust me, we really didn't want to fly to the States but one of my wife's close relatives is in the terminal stages of cancer and we wanted to spend some time with her while she was still "herself". 

The key problem is not the risk of transmission coming into the US from overseas. It's the much higher risk of transmission internally within the US because many people are being idiots and not taking basic precautions to limit spread 9fntue disease. From what I saw, only about 40 percent of people seemed serious about taking precautions.

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## ThomasP (Aug 15, 2020)

Minnesota report, August 14
cases 63,723, recovered 56,659, hospitalized 5,783(313)*, deaths 1,693, tested 1,219,816
fatality rate 2.7%
mortality rate 297 per million
test rate 214 per thousand

Minnesota 7 day amalgamated report, for August 8-14
new cases estimated to be ~3,800, up 800. The exact number is unknown due to delays in testing
new hospitalizations 277, up 20%
new deaths 40**
positivity rate 5.2%, up 0.7%

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 302 and 337 since August 1st.
**There were 4 deaths that were probably due to COVID-19 which are not included in the total deaths or new deaths. This is due to no test having been performed.

Note that the number I am using for the population of Minnesota is 5,700,000 and is rounded down to the nearest thousand for simplicity.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Trust me, we really didn't want to fly to the States but one of my wife's close relatives is in the terminal stages of cancer and we wanted to spend some time with her while she was still "herself".
> 
> The key problem is not the risk of transmission coming into the US from overseas. It's the much higher risk of transmission internally within the US because many people are being idiots and not taking basic precautions to limit spread 9fntue disease. From what I saw, only about 40 percent of people seemed serious about taking precautions.

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## Gnomey (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> The big fear is the impact on hospital capacity once flu season starts. With COVID already stressing medical services in some US cities, there just aren't beds available to also treat the usual number of people who are hospitalized due to seasonal flu.


There wasn’t a flu season this year as it was all COVID there was almost no flu. It’s probable that this will happen in this winter as well.


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## MiTasol (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> From what I saw, only about 40 percent of people seemed serious about taking precautions.



The rest are obliviots - a portmanteau word created from *obli*vious idi*ots* - who are oblivious to reason and their own stupidity, and who wear their stupidity with pride.

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## MiTasol (Aug 15, 2020)

From a friend in Victoria - home of Australia's worst outbreak. ADF = Australian Defense Force. Most of these comments can be applied world wide

*Pointing the finger*

Before we get too hung up on blaming the state govt, or the federal govt, or China for our COVID situation let’s review some facts:

1. We had to bring in mandatory quarantining in hotels, because we couldn’t trust people to stay home after returning from overseas.

2. We then had to bring in security, because we couldn’t trust people to stay in those hotels.

3. We then had to bring in ADF, because we couldn’t trust the security guards not to have sex with those in quarantine in the hotels.

4. We had to get police to door knock and check up on people, because we couldn't trust those who were meant to be self-isolating to actually stay at home.

5. We also have to have police and ADF reinforce the metropolitan Melbourne zone and state borders, because we can’t trust people to follow the restrictions.

6. We are now being asked to use masks, because we cannot trust people to social distance when they are in public.

7. Through it all, our supermarkets have had to introduce shopping restrictions because we couldn’t trust people to not to take more than what they needed.

So we can get as mad as we want at politicians or health officials for imposing restrictions, or the country where the virus originated, but essentially it’s our own fault that we find ourselves here.

Too many people aren’t willing to think of others rather than just themselves.

Selfishness, lack of empathy and stupidity seems to be as much of a disease as COVID-19 itself.

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## michaelmaltby (Aug 15, 2020)

"... here wasn’t a flu season this year as it was all COVID"

Please clarify this statement, Doctor. 
Are you saying there were no Flu cases last year? or, Are you saying there were no Flu cases REPORTED last year.
There is no scientific evidence that COVID has eradicated seasonal Flu, that I am aware of, so I am left to conclude that COVID numbers have been conflated with statistically typical Flu incidents, inflating the COVID numbers.


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## Zipper730 (Aug 15, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> The big fear is the impact on hospital capacity once flu season starts. With COVID already stressing medical services in some US cities, there just aren't beds available to also treat the usual number of people who are hospitalized due to seasonal flu.


Yeah, I figure we're going to be in the same condition we were in through March or April.

We'll have to end up using stadiums, and large indoor places to house people that the hospitals can't make up for. I hope the folks at the farms are still wearing the masks, because it could imperil our food supply if they all get sick.

People don't seem to have the discipline to just stay home or wear a mask long enough to drive this virus to extinction. Had the WHO & CDC been honest with us about the efficacy of face-masks (the CDC knew based on trials done years earlier regarding the concern of the Avian Flu which involved various types of masks including some based on articles of clothing -- they apparently didn't want healthcare workers to be without masks -- despite the fact that such articles of clothing would be in our closets, and not their inventories) there wouldn't be all this confusion about the effectiveness of them, and we'd have probably been free of this thing.

Instead, where I live, we have about 10 new cases everyday, and about 300 people in the hospital.

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## fubar57 (Aug 16, 2020)



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## buffnut453 (Aug 16, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> Had the WHO & CDC been honest with us about the efficacy of face-masks (the CDC knew based on trials done years earlier regarding the concern of the Avian Flu which involved various types of masks including some based on articles of clothing -- they apparently didn't want healthcare workers to be without masks -- despite the fact that such articles of clothing would be in our closets, and not their inventories) there wouldn't be all this confusion about the effectiveness of them, and we'd have probably been free of this thing.
> 
> Instead, where I live, we have about 10 new cases everyday, and about 300 people in the hospital.



I think you're being a tad harsh on the WHO and the CDC. When COVID first emerged, it wasn't clear how the disease was transmitted. The full title of the disease is Novel Coronavirus...and the Novel part means it hasn't been seen before, so experience from other viruses won't necessarily be applicable. 

Viruses use different transmission mechanisms, and it takes time to determine which mechanisms are most relevant. There's no point recommending face masks if primary transmission occurs through some other mechanism. Again, we need to stop thinking of COVID as somehow equivalent or similar to influenza. It's a different disease and requires a different response.

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## Gnomey (Aug 16, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> "... here wasn’t a flu season this year as it was all COVID"
> 
> Please clarify this statement, Doctor.
> Are you saying there were no Flu cases last year? or, Are you saying there were no Flu cases REPORTED last year.
> There is no scientific evidence that COVID has eradicated seasonal Flu, that I am aware of, so I am left to conclude that COVID numbers have been conflated with statistically typical Flu incidents, inflating the COVID numbers.


There were still cases of flu but not statistically significant. We stopped testing for flu in March as there just wasn’t the point anymore. Both conditions are treated the same way anyway so not testing for it doesn’t make that much difference.


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## MiTasol (Aug 16, 2020)



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## MiTasol (Aug 16, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> "... here wasn’t a flu season this year as it was all COVID"
> ..... so I am left to conclude that COVID numbers have been conflated with statistically typical Flu incidents, inflating the COVID numbers.



Actually the number of Covid deaths is far higher than reported in most jurisdictions, the most accurate reporting being from New York.

Two financial newspapers (from memory the Economist and ????) did similar but different studies about two months back at the height of the NY infection. Both found that the death toll from Covid greatly exceeded the official toll in many countries.

They compared the death toll for a number of weeks last year with the death toll for the equivalent weeks this year. *Last years death toll includes all the flu deaths for that year.*

For the current year New York reported just over 1300 additional deaths per week and attributed just under 1300 to Covid. The balance, well under 100, were attributed to persons suffering heart attacks, strokes, etc, who refused to go to hospital.

In Britain, Spain and Italy the additional deaths were in many cases more than double the deaths from Covid. I think it is safe to say that the death toll in those countries from persons suffering heart attacks, strokes, etc, who refused to go to hospital was not higher than the death toll from Covid and that the Covid death toll in those countries was in fact around double the reported deaths.

Was this false reporting by these governments? Probably not because most would only record those known to have Covid and no-one was going to waste a hard to get test on a corpse and therefore deprive a living person of the test they need.

Additionally here in Australia the flu death rate in the ACT has been less than 10% of last years toll because better hygiene and social distancing have dramatically reduced the spread of the flu. Australia has even lower social distancing hand washing requirements than most countries.

Here social distancing is 1.5m = 4sq m. The US has six feet = 1.83= 10.52sq m, most countries have 2m spacing or 12.57sq m.

Here the government says hand washing needs 20 seconds with ordinary soap. The WHO say 40 to 60 seconds.

Fortunately for us Australia is sparsely populated and the vast majority of cities are, by world standards, low density. New York state has 20m population, Aus 24m. NYC has 8.4m and covers 784sq km, Sydney has 5.3m in 4,196sq km giving a population density of just 1,171 persons per square kilometre. Greater Sydney - City of Sydney The NYC population density is almost ten times higher at 10,194/sq km and Manhattan's 25,846/sq km means that small area has almost 25 times Sydney's density.


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## rochie (Aug 16, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> So we can get as mad as we want at politicians or health officials for imposing restrictions, or the country where the virus originated, but essentially it’s our own fault that we find ourselves here.
> 
> Too many people aren’t willing to think of others rather than just themselves.
> 
> Selfishness, lack of empathy and stupidity seems to be as much of a disease as COVID-19 itself.


Never a truer word said !

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## Vincenzo (Aug 16, 2020)

Italy report 16 August 2020, weekly changes
Cases 253,915, +3,349, deaths 35,396, +191, recovered 203,786, +1,688, active cases 14,733, +1,470 (+~80% to past week), tests 7,557,417, +262,573 (-~20% to the already low past week), people tested 4,455,931, +159,201
fatality rate 13.9% (-0.1)
mortality rate 587 per million (+3)
test rate 125.3 per thousand (+5.1)
positive rate 5.7% (-0.1)
test rate this week 4,353 per million (-1,169)
positive rate this week 2.1% (+0.7)
new case rate this week 56 per million (+15)


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## Zipper730 (Aug 18, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> I think you're being a tad harsh on the WHO and the CDC.


The disease was called SARS-CoV-2. SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. That's either airborne or through respiratory droplets.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 18, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> The disease was called SARS-CoV-2. SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. That's either airborne or through respiratory droplets.



The SARS refers to the impact of the virus on the patients' lungs and ability to breathe. It has nothing to do with the mode of transmission. Pneumonia is a common lung disease that can just as easily be contracted by eating or drinking something as it can from airborne droplets. Again, the exact transmission mechanism has to be known in order for corrective measures to be recommended. Now, it's perhaps reasonable to assume that a disease that affects the lungs might be transmitted by airborne means...but it's not guaranteed.

Also bear in mind the likely reaction, particularly in the US, if the WHO or CDC had said back in March "Right, everybody should wear masks, now!" Remember the messaging coming out of governments at that time? Lots of (paraphrasing here) "It isn't here yet", "I don't think we need to worry", "It'll all just blow over". Even with over 170,000 deaths, there are millions of Americans who still balk at wearing a mask. Do you really think they'd respond well to such a directive after, say, a dozen deaths?


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## stona (Aug 18, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> The SARS refers to the impact of the virus on the patients' lungs and ability to breathe. It has nothing to do with the mode of transmission. Pneumonia is a common lung disease that can just as easily be contracted by eating or drinking something as it can from airborne droplets.



Pneumonia can also be contracted by shoving breathing tubes down someone's throat in an effort to treat, say Covid-19. Italian hospitals had one of the worst rates for bacterial pneumonia infection in Europe, _before_ the pandemic.
Lots of elderly people in Europe died from pneumonia, not Covid-19, in the early days, as treatment regimes were developed.
This will all come out when the various enquiries across the world are completed in the next couple of years.

I'm just saying that this is a far more complicated issue than most of the armchair pundits allow. I often see meaningless comparisons between countries who collect data in different ways. Look at the Russian data for infections and deaths...seriously?

One thing is for sure, here in the UK our current rolling average daily death rate is at about 12-14 (depending which set of data you believe) and in most European countries it is something similar. In the US it is over 1,000 a day and every day hundreds of Americans are dying needlessly. If I was an American I would be asking why.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 18, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> The SARS refers to the impact of the virus on the patients' lungs and ability to breathe. It has nothing to do with the mode of transmission. Pneumonia is a common lung disease that can just as easily be contracted by eating or drinking something as it can from airborne droplets. Again, the exact transmission mechanism has to be known in order for corrective measures to be recommended. Now, it's perhaps reasonable to assume that a disease that affects the lungs might be transmitted by airborne means...but it's not guaranteed.
> 
> Also bear in mind the likely reaction, particularly in the US, if the WHO or CDC had said back in March "Right, everybody should wear masks, now!" Remember the messaging coming out of governments at that time? Lots of (paraphrasing here) "It isn't here yet", "I don't think we need to worry", "It'll all just blow over". Even with over 170,000 deaths, there are millions of Americans who still balk at wearing a mask. Do you really think they'd respond well to such a directive after, say, a dozen deaths?



You forgot two.

“It will just go away. It will simply disappear from one day to the next.”

and...

“It’s a hoax.”

You actually have a bunch if people here who think this virus will magically go away come November 3rd. The whole world has come together to create this elaborate hoax.

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## nuuumannn (Aug 18, 2020)

A wee update on the new outbreak in Kiwiland. The country has been placed in a Level Two lockdown situation (see here for definitions: Home ) Auckland, our largest city is in Level 3 lockdown, which still gives local freedoms, so not as severe conditions as when we were in Level 4 a few months back. We have 78 active cases since the weekend, with them all in quarantine and 5 recovering in hospital, no deaths yet - our total death toll stands at 22.

To put that into perspective, thankfully some helpful people on the internet have done their sums and came up with the following figures, On Saturday the USA had 53,523 new cases, NZ, 7. On Sunday the USA had 37,516 new cases, NZ, 13, On Monday the USA had 29,225, NZ, 9. Total in 3 days, USA 120,264, NZ, 29. Just to clarify, this is not considered a 'big surge'; our figures are still incredibly low compared to the rest of the world. It's not over yet, folks.

The misinformation is really starting to flow over this, even the country's deputy leader of the opposition has put forward the theory that the government was deliberately hiding the fact there had been new cases. Thankfully there has been a backlash and he's had to admit that he didn't intend on stoking the fires of conspiracy.

Out of interest's sake, how to recognise a conspiracy: COVID: Top 10 current conspiracy theories - Alliance for Science

Al Jazeera tends to hold a considered view on things: Why are there so many conspiracy theories around the coronavirus?

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## Zipper730 (Aug 18, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> The misinforma6tion is really starting to flow over this, even the country's deputy leader of the opposition has put forward the theory that the government was deliberately hiding the fact there had been new cases. Thankfully there has been a backlash and he's had to admit that he didn't intend on stoking the fires of conspiracy.


The problem with the conspiracy theories is that censoring them simply reinforces the attitude that it's a coverup.


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## Acheron (Aug 19, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> The problem with the conspiracy theories is that censoring them simply reinforces the attitude that it's a coverup.


While there definitely will be people who will claim that the "censoring" proves a cover-up, quite some of those might be the ones who would believe in the conspiracy myth anyway, no?

With something like Corona going on, I fear we have to try and figure out what is more harmful, possibly giving credibility to the conspiracy myths by censoring them or letting them run rampant and possibly convince more gullible people.

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## Glider (Aug 19, 2020)

I found these rather sobering numbers which cover the last week.

*New Zealand:* 73 new cases, 0 deaths
*South Korea:* 1,101 new cases, 1 death
*Australia:* 2,060 new cases, 107 deaths
*Italy: *3,410 new cases, 191 deaths
*United Kingdom:* 7,672 new cases, 73 deaths
*Germany: *8,192 new cases, 33 deaths
*France: *17,184 new cases, 107 deaths
*United States:* 343,925 new cases, 7,034 deaths

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## MiTasol (Aug 19, 2020)

To add to that - here are the most recent death rate per million residents figures for the same countries.

*New Zealand:* 4/m and none for over 100 days. Certain people with a total disregard for honesty claim NZ has a terrible problem with covid. NZ is again close to control
*South Korea:* 6/m - last death unknown, appears to be Aug 6th
*Australia: *18/m and 12 yesterday, 17 the day before, good partial control
*Italy: *586/m and 5 yesterday, 4 the day before, close to full control
*United Kingdom: *609/m and 3 yesterday, 12 the day before, close to full control
*Germany: * 111/m and 9 yesterday, 6 the day before, close to full control
*France: * 466/m and 24 yesterday, 17 the day before, good partial control
*US:* 529/m and rapidly rising (yesterday 524/m). 1.,358 new deaths yesterday, 589 the day before. * COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL*

Certain people like to point out that the US has a lower death toll than the UK but the US started much later and were only 404/million earlier this month. They will almost certainly pass the UK's 609/m before the end of this month. The US could have learned from Italy, Spain and the UK's mistakes before the virus got a hold but did not.

As far as I have seen the US has the youngest victims and many of them but I have been unable to find official data on that.


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## Snowygrouch (Aug 19, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> *COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL*.



I`m not really particulary convinced that one CAN "control" any virus by political means. There is no data which suggests that nations with harder lockdowns achieved less deaths per capita (except China...go figure), in fact the opposite is in many cases true. If you want to learn from mistakes in Europe, let me tell you now, DONT lock down your society, it will not stop the virus spreading
(we know this because there is no improvement between nations which DID, and those that DIDNT), and what the media seems to be falling over themselves to
never talk about, is the huge number of excess deaths which were not attributable to the virus. Do a graph of hospital admissions in the UK over the last 6months,
you`ll soon see why. All the people who would normally have gone to hospital and survived, are now just dying at home, heart attacks, cancer, etc. (well
either that or by "magic" thousands of people spontainously got cured, the naysayers say "well thats just all your timewasters not bothering to get free care",
i`d say the drop is far too large to possibly account for the "oh I stubbed my toe, put me in intensive care" types. Its no fun in the NHS these days either
so I`m not sure how many people want to wait 5hours in an A&E because they had nothing better to do... anyway...)







I have a friend in the UK (whats called a "general practitioner" here), he told me patients are not presenting, they have all be terrified out of their minds that the`re
staying at home. Huge numbers are dying from cancelled chemo operations, and so on. This is utterly verboten info at least as far as TV news is concerned.

Cancer treatment delayed as patient priority lists drawn up

Coronavirus 'wreaks havoc' on cancer services

'More than two million in UK wait for cancer care'

An extra 18,000 cancer patients 'could die sooner' due to COVID-19

Sweden (who like several other nations) didnt lock down, are portrayed in the media here as some sort of bunch of murdering madmen, oddly when I chat to
friends in Sweden, they say everything is basically fine there. (they apparently did one big mistake, which was however not isolating their care homes properly).

In UK, basically what happened was that Prof. Ferguson released a study saying if we DIDNT lock down 500,000 would die, so the Govt basically closed the NHS to
normal opertaions, and turned it into a virus response organisation. Ferguson later had to resign when it turned out he`d been ignoring the lockdown rules
he made everyone else follow to have an affair.

Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19

Later, his mathematical models were utterly taken apart and branded nonsense by many qualified persons:

His modelling was described as potentially: "the most devastating software mistake of all time"

‘Politicised nature’ of lockdown debate delays Imperial report | Free to read

“So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?” « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Can we trust Neil Ferguson’s computer code? | The Spectator

Neil Ferguson: Coronavirus response adviser's previous epidemic mistakes revealed

(for those outside the UK, Ferguson has a track record of consistently getting virus modelling completely wrong)

To clear spaces the moved thousands of old people in hospital into care homes !!! (yes
really), which many are now saying directly caused huge numbers of deaths because many of those in hospital had the virus, and they moved them into
concentrated pockets of old people. Yet anyone who voices a critical view, is told basically "you`re murding old people !!!". Yet this is exactly what the
government policy resulted in.

The result of cancelled operations and cessation of cancer care etc can be see in the areas where the green data goes above the
5-year average line. It should be noted that the blue bars are NOT by any stretch deaths cased BY the virus, even the official
data admits this "Deaths involving...". In fact in the UK, they even had it that ANYONE who died of ANYTHING who had been
given a + covid test in the 2months (60 days in the official documents) preceding their death was marked as "Covid involved". So you have people in there
who died of internal bleeding after a car crash, being listed as Covid as they crashed maybe 2months after a + test.

Note that these "virus deaths" are ADDED to those who actually had Covid on the death certificate. So the coroner does NOT have to
even menion "covid" on the death certificate for it to be logged as a "involving covid" death. Utterly astonishing.

The media seems to also have enjoyed mixing up Case Fatality Rate and Infection Fatality Rate. (I had no idea what those were until
someone told me about it a few weeks ago). Whichever you choose, you do have to make it one or the other! This can
dramatically skew the comparisons between Flu and Covid deaths if you get it wrong.






I really have no interest in engaging in any arguments/debate, merely stating my viewpoint here for those interested.

Its even clear from the official (fudged) data below that certainly in the UK, the virus is essentially well on its way out,
yet the media are still trying to terrify all and sundry. In fact if you plot data going back 10 years, there was at least one
perfectly normal Flu year which killed more than Covid did here. Yet; absolutely nothing was said about it.

Interestingly, although you cannot absolutely PROVE causation, it is "interesting" to plot the dates when excess deaths
started rising, relative to when the lockdowns were imposed. I`m not suggesting its 100% causality here, but I think
it at the very least shows that there is a very large negative effect on death rates by imposing lockdowns. I`ve looked
at several countries, and they`re all amazingly similar. I think the most extreme one I`ve seen is New York city. They`re
not all quite as cut-and-dry as this, but it makes the issue clearly one to be discussed (sorry its a screenshot
from a video which is why the quality is rubbish, but the data is from CDC. The dotted line is when lockdown
was imposed. As I say this is probably the most extreme example, it is of course possible to say "of course you
get this graph because they imposed a lockdown when the virus became most prevalent". This is a reasonable
assertion, but doesnt match very well to latest data on when the virus first started being detected in major cities,
which seems to have been many months beforehand, which makes one wonder what the virus was doing for months on-end.

Also given how appaulingly bad the predictions have been from govt reports, i`m a bit incredulous that they all somehow
managed to start lockdown EXACTLY before the spikes in deaths. It seems more likely that the case-effect here is 
excess deaths due to very sick people being locked in their homes. Some of these deaths are of course virus related too, sadly
I dont have (yet) a good plot of that.






Rolls-Royce let go thousands here a few months ago, the job market is dead, buisinesses closed for ever, its going to be
an economic apocalypse, and we have a higher deaths per capita than any nation which didnt have a lockdown. Total insanity,
the suicides, domestic violence and other unspeakable issues for those with disabled children like Autism who have been left
to literally rot is never mentioned on the news. I have a aquantance with an Autistic son who was supposed to be in a day-care
centre. That was closed down, he`s now stuck at home and she`s trying to take care of him whilst he literally screams and
smashes the house up. Nobody is even allowed to talk about these consiquencs of "locking down".

I have no idea what the best solution is/was, but I do resent the lack of media coverage of the problems govt policy is having.











https://assets.publishing.service.g..._PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths_20200812.pdf

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## Zipper730 (Aug 19, 2020)

Acheron said:


> While there definitely will be people who will claim that the "censoring" proves a cover-up, quite some of those might be the ones who would believe in the conspiracy myth anyway, no?


Actually, censoring makes it worse. You're thinking of this through the frame of two scenarios, of which one is "good", and the other is "bad".

Instead, let's think of it as two bad scenarios: One is simply worse than the other.

A good example of this would be a man who's been stabbed: He's not dead, but he's in serious condition and, while an ambulance is en-route, all you can do is one of two things

1. Leave the blade in him, possibly stabilize it​2. Remove the knife​
Instinctively, the natural response is to not leave the knife in the guy, but to yank it out. It turns out, it's the worst of two scenarios: Remove it, and you've uncorked the wound and the person might very well bleed out.

I would say it's best to

1. Flood the Zone: Saturate the system with accurate data​​2. Truth Sandwich: Sounds funny, but it's a specific way to counter determined deception efforts. The idea involves starting with the truth, then illustrating the inaccurate message, then reiterating the truth. Basically you surround the lie with truth, sandwiching it, and start with and finish with the truth. The idea is to make sure the truth is heard more than lies. Unfortunately, many people -- even the media -- tend to often illustrate the deceptive message first, which serves to reinforce it, before you've successfully started to dismantle it.​​3. Understand the Cause: Conspiracy theories surface because people don't believe they're being told the truth about matters. This is not _always_ unjustified.​​The fact that that there have been scares over viruses of far greater lethality over the past 15-20 years such as Ebola (80-90% mortality rate historically, 30% in 2014), SARS (11% mortality rate), MERS (34.4%), that were handled in a more measured manner with successful containment, made the reaction seem completely overboard. There was also conflicting data in some cases between national leadership (It's no big deal), media (The sky is falling!), and the medical community (This is quite serious, but...) about the exact threat the virus posed created a lot of fear and uncertainty, as well as a feeling that people aren't being told the whole truth on this matter (a ripe environment for conspiracy theories).​


Snowygrouch said:


> There is no data which suggests that nations with harder lockdowns achieved less deaths per capita (except China...go figure), in fact the opposite is in many cases true.


Ironically, such extreme measures by China were required because they tried to keep the matter secret until it got so badly out of control. Dictatorships sometimes have a tendency to do this to protect themselves from their people, and to avoid appearing weak to other nations.


> Sweden (who like several other nations) didnt lock down, are portrayed in the media here as some sort of bunch of murdering madmen, oddly when I chat to
> friends in Sweden, they say everything is basically fine there. (they apparently did one big mistake, which was however not isolating their care homes properly).


That happened in New York too. There were a lot of deaths in nursing homes, it's sad.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 19, 2020)

So much misinformation being believed and spread here...

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## gumbyk (Aug 19, 2020)

Snowygrouch said:


> There is no data which suggests that nations with harder lockdowns achieved less deaths per capita (except China...go figure), in fact the opposite is in many cases true.


Ummm, you might want to have a look at where NZ sits in those statistics.
The latest cases have barely affected anyone outside Auckland (besides the economic one of lack of domestic tourism). 
In fact, our lockdown was so severe, that it has been deemed 'unlawful'. But guess what? everyone is saying that it was still justified, and proportionate to the risks, but that the law-making was too slow to keep up with the government's actions. Big deal, no-one cares.

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## Snowygrouch (Aug 19, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Ummm, you might want to have a look at where NZ sits in those statistics.
> The latest cases have barely affected anyone outside Auckland (besides the economic one of lack of domestic tourism).
> In fact, our lockdown was so severe, that it has been deemed 'unlawful'. But guess what? everyone is saying that it was still justified, and proportionate to the risks, but that the law-making was too slow to keep up with the government's actions. Big deal, no-one cares.



Firstly for extremely obvious geographic reasons NZ is not a useful comparator.

Data more broadly do not support your assertions. This is obviously merely a cross-section, but it is very representative of the general
lockdown vs not. It should be noted that Mexico went into a lockdown just before the data used to collate this was made,
Therefore you should probably disregard it. Sadly the data is not current, but I do not believe if you update it the
overall story will alter.

The "big deal who cares" was rather thoroughly covered in my first, and rather heavily reference-laden post.


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## gumbyk (Aug 19, 2020)

Snowygrouch said:


> Firstly for extremely obvious geographic reasons NZ is not a useful comparator.
> 
> Data more broadly do not support your assertions. This is obviously merely a cross-section, but it is very representative of the general
> lockdown vs not. It should be noted that Mexico went into a lockdown just before the data used to collate this was made,
> ...


It's not only how strict the lockdown was, its the time taken to enact it. As I said, our was in effect even before parliament could pass the laws to make it legal.
UK initially tried the 'herd immunity' approach, then changed to a lockdown, USA is hardly in lockdown with the number of idiots ignoring it. Italy, likewise delayed any form of lockdown. As for the others, I don't know, but it would be interesting to do this exercise again, taking into effect the time between first case, and lockdown being implemented.

As for the Asian countries in the 'non-lockdown' list - their culture is significantly different. Before this pandemic, if you were sick you wore a mask in public, so there was no great change in behaviour required.


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## wuzak (Aug 19, 2020)

Snowygrouch said:


> Firstly for extremely obvious geographic reasons NZ is not a useful comparator.
> 
> Data more broadly do not support your assertions. This is obviously merely a cross-section, but it is very representative of the general
> lockdown vs not. It should be noted that Mexico went into a lockdown just before the data used to collate this was made,
> ...



Calum, that data seems to be a bit out of date.

The current deaths/1m population for the US is around 532, against 193 in the chart. And the USA didn't have a country wide lock down.

Sweden are at around 574/1m population and Mexico 447. South Korea 6 and Japan 4. Iceland is still 29.

I don't think many countries instituted a lock down before the virus took hold, the lock down being a measure to bring an outbreak under control.

And, as mentioned above, the UK did not initially lock down.


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## ThomasP (Aug 20, 2020)

This is an update from my post#2,012 on 1 May. The numbers in ( ) are the current numbers

__________Population***
___________Density__Population_________Confirmed_______________________ Deaths/
___________(sq.mi.)___ (millions)____________Cases____________Deaths_______million

Japan________ 867_____126.5_________14,305(57,550)_______455(1,128)______ 3.6(9)____(Japan first confirmed case was on 6 January)*

S.Korea_____1,325______51.3_________ 10,774(16,346)_______248(307)________4.8(6)____(Korea first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

US____________94_____331.0______ 1,090,000(5,700,931)__63,538(176,337)__192.0(532)__(US first confirmed case was on 20 January)**

Germany_____ 623______83.8________ 163,000(229,700)____ 6,623(9,314)_____ 79.0(111)__(Germany first confirmed case was on 27 January)

*Note that Japan had 14 days less warning than the US. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
**Note that S.Korea and the US confirmed their first cases on the same day. The ensuing spread of COVID-19 in the two countries is an example of one country doing things about as well as can be done, and the other not anywhere near as well.
***Note that the US has the lowest population density, by a factor of 5.7x to 14x.

Also:

Japan did declare a state of emergency and institute a "voluntary lockdown" that lasted for ~1.5 months (7 April to 26 May). Their lockdown was similar to that of the US in that it was mostly voluntary, with social distancing, mask wearing, and work/stay at home. Their lockdown was different in that they did not order the shutdown of "non-essential" businesses en mass, but they did penalize troublesome organizations and businesses. The 2 main differences between the results for Japan and the US are that:
1. Japan took the coronavirus threat seriously from the start, and instituted quarantines and TTI**** immediately. Their reaction was so quick that the spread was virtually stopped in its tracks. There have been numerous small outbreaks since then, but Japan's methods have kept them in check.
2. Japan's population has a significantly lower percentage of obliviots. When they were told to social distance, wear masks, work/stay at home, avoid certain businesses/neighborhoods . . they did.

South Korea did declare a state of emergency and institute a "voluntary lockdown", but like Japan they did not order the shutdown of "non-essential" businesses en mass. They have, however, penalized and/or ordered the shut down of troublesome organizations and businesses when needed, including schools, gyms, parks, museums, churches, etc. The 2 main differences between the results for South Korea and the US are that:
1. South Korea took the coronavirus threat seriously from the start, and instituted quarantines and TTI**** immediately. Testing, in particular, was so quickly implemented that the spread was virtually stopped in its tracks. Like in Japan there have been numerous small outbreaks since then, but South Korea's methods have kept them in check.
2. South Korea's population has a significantly lower percentage of obliviots. When they were told to social distance, wear masks, work/stay at home, avoid certain businesses/neighborhoods . . they did.

The US did declare a state of emergency, and order a fairly stiff lockdown (not by any means the stiffest). This included closing what were deemed non-essential businesses, schools, churches, etc., along with social distancing and stay-at-home/shelter-in-place orders. Most states, but not all, required some of the above under threat of monetary penalty. However, not only did a large minority of average citizens not obey the social distancing/stay-at-home/shelter-in-place orders at the beginning of this whole mess, a majority refused to wear masks when it was first recommended and STILL refuse to wear masks and social distance. The need for the stiff lockdown in the US was due to the appallingly bad initial reaction to the pandemic, and the reason that it did not work (better) was that only the business closures were adhered to (for the most part). We are so far off the mark that it is difficult to relate the differences that have resulted in the disparity between the US and Japan or South Korea . .the closest I can get is:
1. The US did not take the coronavirus seriously at the start, and aside from a couple of cruise ships did not institute mandatory quarantine and initiate TTI****. Many of our states and their leaders only began to take the pandemic seriously in the last month or so. Many of our citizens still do not take it seriously.
2. Unfortunately, unlike Japan and South Korea, a very large percentage of the US citizenry are obliviots, or possibly just the run of the mill idiots (I have not decided yet), which includes a significant percentage of our leaders. When ordered to stay-at-home/shelter-in-place and wear masks, not only did many not do so . . many have also proudly refused to do so, claiming that it infringes on their civil rights. The only voluntary stricture largely obeyed was that of working at home where possible.

Incidentally, the US (aside from in a few states like New York that were hit so severely at the beginning) still has not instituted TTI on a significant scale. We are only just now beginning to build the organization necessary . . ~6.5 months after our first case.

****Test,Trace, and Isolate (TTI) or maybe Track, Test, and Isolate (still TTI).

[edited by me for clarity, on August 23]


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## MiTasol (Aug 20, 2020)

A good article on the intelligence of the government agencies administering covid control in Australia.
Farmers despair as they're told to put sheep, hay and harvesters on planes 
If brains were gasoline they would not have enough to start a cigarette lighter.

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## Vincenzo (Aug 22, 2020)

Italy Today report 1,071 new cases, first time over one thousand since 12th May

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## MiTasol (Aug 22, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy Today report 1,071 new cases, first time over one thousand since 12th May



Bugga.

Keep safe.


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## MIflyer (Aug 22, 2020)

I have a simple double layer cloth mask that a friend made, probably out of dishcloths. I wear it when I go into a store that requires you to wear one. It just loops over the ears. I think it looks stupid but it meets the requirement.

But those full lower face and jaw masks that people are wearing, where the straps wrap around their head....
I can't shake the feeling that they are wearing jock straps on their faces. It is hard not to laugh.

Anybody else notice that?

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## ThomasP (Aug 22, 2020)

I can't decide whether to give you (MIflyer) an Agree symbol or a Funny symbol, maybe we need a combined symbol?


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## ThomasP (Aug 22, 2020)

Minnesota report, August 22
cases 68,687, recovered 61,698, hospitalized 6,113(316)*, deaths 1,761, tested 1,357,595
fatality rate 2.5%
mortality rate 308.9 per million
test rate 238.2 per thousand

Minnesota 8 day amalgamated report, for August 15 through 22
new cases estimated to be ~3,100, actual number unknown due to delays in testing.
new hospitalizations 291, up 5%
new deaths 62, up 35%**
positivity rate 5.1%, up 0.6%

*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 273 and 335 over the last 30 days.
**This number is not as bad as it may seem. The fatalities tend to trail the new case/hospitalizations by anywhere from 2-6 weeks. Also this number is for 8 days as opposed to the 7 days in the last amalgamated report.


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## MIflyer (Aug 22, 2020)

The most informative thing I have read on the Chinese Wuflu is here, and it is the opinion of the top experts:
The Good News the Media and Our Health Experts™ Are Hiding About COVID-19

Key points:

1. There is no such thing as being infected without symptoms. They may be mild or very severe, but there are always symptoms.

2. The majority of the "new infected" people are in fact people whose immune systems destroyed the virus and there are pieces of the virus still floating around, causing no harm and provoking no immune response. But all of the various "virus tests" detect not the whole virus but just a piece of it. Thus, most of the "new infected" are people who already got it and got over it. Thus this is not only a Chinese Virus but essentially a Chinese Fire Drill.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> The most informative thing I have read on the Chinese Wuflu is here, and it is the opinion of the top experts:
> The Good News the Media and Our Health Experts™ Are Hiding About COVID-19
> 
> Key points:
> ...



You are aware that PJ Media is a far right opinion based “news” source that is known for spreading false, inaccurate, and often conspiracy theory stuff right? I would not count it as informative...

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## Lucky13 (Aug 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So much misinformation being believed and spread here...



Honestly, I can't remember when media was truthful and were sticking to facts last....Denzel Washington is very much right in his video on YouTube, about media!
A favourite of mine, is when swedish media was running wild with news about russia flying spy planes over one of our big exercises (with Nato), using a photoshop aircraft....a BOEING! 😳😲😆😆😆😂😂😂

I know, off topic and I apologise! 

A few pubs here in Glasgow has been shut down, due to customers have phoned in, telling the staff that they've got the Big Sniffles! One of my colleagues at work was off on Thursday night because of this, self isolation, until the test results are back and he knows. See what happens with the rest of us if he's got the Drips Majoris, it'd be half the nightshift f🤬cked should that be the case, me included!


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## at6 (Aug 23, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> I can't shake the feeling that they are wearing jock straps on their faces. It is hard not to laugh.


If it keeps junk in, it should keep other junk out.

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## MIflyer (Aug 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You are aware that PJ Media is a far right opinion based “news” source that is known fir spreading false, inaccurate, and often conspiracy theory stuff right? I would not count it as informative...



As opposed to everyone else?

They are quoting real, verifiable experts, not fabricating things out of thin air like CNN and the NYT.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

Lucky13 said:


> Honestly, I can't remember when media was truthful and were sticking to facts last....Denzel Washington is very much right in his video on YouTube, about media!
> A favourite of mine, is when swedish media was running wild with news about russia flying spy planes over one of our big exercises (with Nato), using a photoshop aircraft....a BOEING! 😳😲😆😆😆😂😂😂
> 
> I know, off topic and I apologise!
> ...



i was not talking about the media. I was talking about members of the forum.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> As opposed to everyone else?
> 
> They are quoting real, verifiable experts, not fabricating things out of thin air like CNN and the NYT.



lmao...

You can get any “verifiable person” to say what you want, when they align themselves with your choice of political vomit. Just look at demon sperm doctor lady.

PJ has been proven over and over and debunked over and over for spewing fake news misinformation.


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## MIflyer (Aug 23, 2020)

They are QUOTING people who should be believed based on their expertise and the research they have done.

PJ Media was created to FIGHT fake news., The CBS G.W. Bush TX Air Guard Hoax was debunked by people who had the necessary expertise to point out that the format of the letter was wrong for that time frame ( I could confirm that) and that it was not typed on an IBM Selectric but using a computer.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> They are QUOTING people who should be believed based on their expertise and the research they have done.
> 
> PJ Media was created to FIGHT fake news., The CBS G.W. Bush TX Air Guard Hoax was debunked by people who had the necessary expertise to point out that the format of the letter was wrong for that time frame ( I could confirm that) and that it was not typed on an IBM Selectric but using a computer.



So what about all people we should be believing, but don’t? I mean are we picking and choosing which which experts to believe. I know its not cool politically to believe Dr. Fauci right?

Who cares what they were created for? They spread fake news left and right. So you combat fake news with more fake news...

_ 18]
*False claimsEdit*

In August 2018, PJ Media published an article by then supervising editor Paula Bolyard[19] claiming that Google was manipulating its algorithm to prioritize left-leaning news outlets in their coverage of President Trump.[20] Bolyard acknowledged that her study was "not scientific," though she did conclude that "the results suggest a pattern of bias against right-leaning content." Fact checkers at PolitiFact rated this claim false[21]
In January 2019, PJ Media published a column by their senior editor Tyler O'Neil[22], in which he insinuated in his article that a Muslim community patrol in New York City might be enforcing ShariaLaw and might be linked to the NYPD.[23] This group, the Muslim Community Patrol Service (MCPS)[24] was a certified volunteer Neighborhood watch in Brooklyn, a NYC CERT[25] along with other community patrols such as the Brooklyn Asian Safety Patrol[26] and the Guardian Angels. PJ Media offered nothing that demonstrated the MCPS could, or planned to, “enforce Sharia law,” beyond engaging in the speculative hypothetical that the MCPS might somehow “apply … Sharia in its community monitoring.” Fact-checkers at Snopes rated this claim false.[27]
In February 2019, PJ Media published a column by one of their writers John Hawkins,[28] also creator of Rightwingnews, in which he stated in an article titled "The Six Most Bizarre Proposals from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal"[29] making five out of six claims such as "getting rid of airplanes" or "getting rid of cows", aim to "get rid of gas-powered cars in a decade", call for eliminating carbon emissions in ten years "without the use of nuclear power", or "promise 'economic security' for those 'unwilling to work'". Fact checkers at NewsGuard rated these five claims false[30] which can be further verified by the official government resolution H.Res.109 Green New Deal[31] proposed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
In January 2020, PJ Media published a column by one of their writers,[32] Robert B. Spencer, also founder and director of the anti-Muslim conspiracy blog Jihad Watch, in which he stated that congresswoman Ilhan Omar had given Iran military advice by suggesting it could target Trump hotels, and thus committed treason.[33] Fact-checkers at Snopes rated this claim false.[34]
In February 2020, PJ Media published a column by one of their writers [35] Victoria Taft also a conservative talk show host,[36] in which she stated that President Barack Obama waited until millions were infected and 1000 dead in the U.S. before he declared the Pandemic H1N1/09 virus an emergency.[37] Fact-checkers at Snopes rated this claim false.[38]
In August, 2020, PJ Media published an article by their Chicago editor Rick Moran[39] claiming Democrats were urging presidential candidate Joe Biden not to debate with President Trump because they were concerned with the former vice presidents mental stamina[40]. The source for this claim cited on the PJ Media article was from Newsweek, but the Newsweek article states that the former vice president was advised not to debate Trump citing "publicity stunts and disregard for the rules in 2016" as well as cancelling debates over concerns of the COVID-19 pandemic[41]. Furthermore, the Newsweek article cited by PJ Media makes no mention about any mental stamina. According to CNN, Biden spokesman TJ Ducklo stated that presidential candidate Biden has already agreed to three debates with President Trump in Fall 2020_
PJ Media - Wikipedia

yes its from wiki, but its the easiest way for me to post it on my phone.


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## Lucky13 (Aug 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> i was not talking about the media. I was talking about members of the forum.



I know my friend, I just dragged it out and wandered off with it! 😉😆😂


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## nuuumannn (Aug 23, 2020)

A little bit of tongue-in-cheek humour to lighten the mood, making news around NZ at the moment, some idiot on twitter posted this, after the US President's comments about the country's latest outbreak of the virus (speaking of fake news):

"You can't leave. And you can't easily have people in. And you're back in lockdown in major parts of the country. And the quarantine camps are public knowledge. Your country is a hellhole."

So, in typical fashion, Kiwis have responded with the hashtag NZHellhole and posting how miserable their lives are not! Not only is it a great advertisement of how beautiful our country is, but just how ridiculous the claims that are being made overseas by the uninformed actually are!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NZHellhole?src=hashtag_click

This one from my town:

"Awful day here in the #NZHellhole. The Nelson Market was cancelled so had to get fresh-baked bread and organic sausages from the Farmers’ Market instead. Off for a stroll in native bush this afternoon and maybe go to a movie. O the tyranny of this jackbooted regime."

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

nuuumannn said:


> A little bit of tongue-in-cheek humour to lighten the mood, making news around NZ at the moment, some idiot on twitter posted this, after the US President's comments about the country's latest outbreak of the virus (speaking of fake news):
> 
> "You can't leave. And you can't easily have people in. And you're back in lockdown in major parts of the country. And the quarantine camps are public knowledge. Your country is a hellhole."
> 
> ...




Ole Orange one actually said New Zealand is a hell hole?


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## buffnut453 (Aug 23, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> They are QUOTING people who should be believed based on their expertise and the research they have done.



Not sure I can buy that. Nobody is worthy of belief simply because of their position. That's precisely why the scientific community requires high-quality, peer-reviewed research. AFAIK, none of the individuals quoted have gone through that process. The few items of published research that are identified in the article are then followed by rather speculative interpretations or explanations which are not included in the original text. It's also frustrating that the article fails to recognize that these "discoveries" were all necessary precisely BECAUSE it was a novel virus.

The article doesn't get off to a promising start. It quotes a Beda M. Stadler and touts his comments on COVID despite admitting Dr Stadler's incorrect prognostication that COVID would wither away in the summer heat. It then goes on to state that "COVID-19 is 78% similar to SARS" and therefore it wasn't "novel". The logic of this is stupefying given that a dog is genetically 84% similar to a human...yet would we suggest canines and humans are the same, suffering the same diseases and reacting the same way to those diseases?

The article also references America's Frontline Doctors (AFD) who criticize other COVID research as "fake science" and yet they offer no evidence themselves of their "un-fake" research. AFD recommendations include use of hydroxychloroquine but they offer no substantive, peer-reviewed research to justify their claim. As Adler has noted, the ranks of AFD include Dr. Stella Immanuel who, among other things, has claimed that many gynecological illnesses are the result of having sex dreams with succubi and incubi and receiving demon sperm. She asserted in 2015 that space alien DNA is used in medical treatments and that "reptilian spirits" and other extraterrestrials run the U.S. government. She also said in 2015 that Illuminati are using witches to destroy the world through abortion, gay marriage, children's toys and media (e.g. _Harry Potter_, _Pokémon_, _Wizards of Waverly Place_ and _Hannah Montana_). In another 2015 sermon, she said scientists are developing vaccines to stop people from being religious.

Sorry but, for my money, I'll take scientifically sound, double-blind, peer-reviewed research over anything stated by AFD. I also take with a huge dose of salt ANY "expert" who seeks to use the megaphone of the internet to make their points rather than seeking to influence the scientific consensus through well-designed and thoroughly reviewed medical trials.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 23, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Not sure I can buy that. Nobody is worthy of belief simply because of their position. That's precisely why the scientific community requires high-quality, peer-reviewed research. AFAIK, none of the individuals quoted have gone through that process. The few items of published research are then followed by rather speculative interpretations or explanations which are not included in the original text. It's also frustrating that the article fails to recognize that these "discoveries" were all necessary precisely BECAUSE it was a novel virus.
> 
> The article doesn't get off to a promising start. It quotes a Beda M. Stadler and touts his comments on COVID despite admitting that Dr Stadler's prognostication that COVID would wither away in the summer heat. It then goes on to state that "COVID-19 is 78% similar to SARS" and therefore it wasn't "novel". The logic of this is stupefying given that a dog is genetically 84% similar to a human...yet would we suggest canines and and humans are the same, suffering the same diseases and reacting the same way to those diseases?
> 
> ...



Thank you. You very reasonably stated what I was going to say when I had more time.

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## Crimea_River (Aug 23, 2020)

buffnut453 said:


> Not sure I can buy that. Nobody is worthy of belief simply because of their position. That's precisely why the scientific community requires high-quality, peer-reviewed research......



Case in point: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kulvinder-kaur-gill-tweets-cpso-1.5680122

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## swampyankee (Aug 23, 2020)

Scientists follow data. That's the _entire basis of science_. Picking "scientists" based on ideology results in people like Lysenko, who did not follow data or evidence.

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## nuuumannn (Aug 23, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ole Orange one actually said New Zealand is a hell hole?



I don't think he did; it was a tweeter who had run with his comments that described it as a hell hole, nevertheless, his comments are laughable to say the least. Our prime minister has simply responded by stating that his comments are wrong and refuses to indulge in the BS that is sweeping the air waves these days, to her everlasting credit.



buffnut453 said:


> Dr. Stella Immanuel who, among other things, has claimed that many gynecological illnesses are the result of having sex dreams with succubi and incubi and receiving demon sperm. She asserted in 2015 that space alien DNA is used in medical treatments and that "reptilian spirits" and other extraterrestrials run the U.S. government. She also said in 2015 that Illuminati are using witches to destroy the world through abortion, gay marriage, children's toys and media (e.g. _Harry Potter_, _Pokémon_, _Wizards of Waverly Place_ and _Hannah Montana_). In another 2015 sermon, she said scientists are developing vaccines to stop people from being religious.


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## MiTasol (Aug 24, 2020)

Latest in Victoria AUS _Victoria has recorded 116 new coronavirus cases and 15 deaths, as Premier Daniel Andrews announced his Government will seek to change laws so that Victoria's state of emergency *can be extended by another 12 months*. _

Andrews seeks power to extend state of emergency by 12 months 

I think this smells of a power grab but only time will tell if it is justified


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## at6 (Aug 24, 2020)

Never waste a good pandemic.


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## gumbyk (Aug 24, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Latest in Victoria AUS _Victoria has recorded 116 new coronavirus cases and 15 deaths, as Premier Daniel Andrews announced his Government will seek to change laws so that Victoria's state of emergency *can be extended by another 12 months*. _
> 
> Andrews seeks power to extend state of emergency by 12 months
> 
> I think this smells of a power grab but only time will tell if it is justified



It's better than extending by 3 months, and then in three months having to go back again, and again...

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## Vincenzo (Aug 24, 2020)

Italy report, 23rd August, weekly changes
cases 259,345, +5,430, deaths 35,437, +41, recovered 205,470, +1,694, active cases 18,438, +3,705, tests 8,007,637, +450,220, people tested 4,739,968, +284,037
fatality rate 13.7% (-0.2)
mortality rate 588 per million (+1)
test rate 132.8 per thousand (+7.5)
positive rate 5.5% (-0.2)
test rate this week 7,464 per million (+3,111)
positive rate this week 1.9% (-0.2)
new case rate this week 90 per million (+34)


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## MIflyer (Aug 27, 2020)

On Monday, the CDC updated its testing guidelines to say that not everyone needs to get a test for COVID-19: You only need a test if you have symptoms or have had close contact with an infected individual. They have finally defined close contact to be within six feet for at least 15 minutes. 

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

This essentially confirms the concerns about false positives raised by Dr. Stadler, a Swiss immune system expert.


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## gumbyk (Aug 27, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> On Monday, the CDC updated its testing guidelines to say that not everyone needs to get a test for COVID-19: You only need a test if you have symptoms or have had close contact with an infected individual. They have finally defined close contact to be within six feet for at least 15 minutes.
> 
> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> 
> This essentially confirms the concerns about false positives raised by Dr. Stadler, a Swiss immune system expert.


Hmmm, pushed through while Dr Fauci was in surgery...

The best way to deal with false positives is to do a second test, as is fairly common in medicine where the possibility of a false positive is large.


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## MIflyer (Aug 27, 2020)

The problem is that the tests used will show positive even when the immune system has done its job and destroyed the virus, leaving pieces of the virus floating around, which are detected by the commonly used tests. It's rather like you having a flat tire on your car and the tire store saying you need 4 new ones because if one is flat they must all be.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 27, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> Hmmm, pushed through while Dr Fauci was in surgery...
> 
> The best way to deal with false positives is to do a second test, as is fairly common in medicine where the possibility of a false positive is large.



The new guidelines go against everything the vast majority of experts say on the subject. This was influenced heavily by politics, and pretty much everyone knows this.


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## gumbyk (Aug 27, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> The problem is that the tests used will show positive even when the immune system has done its job and destroyed the virus, leaving pieces of the virus floating around, which are detected by the commonly used tests. It's rather like you having a flat tire on your car and the tire store saying you need 4 new ones because if one is flat they must all be.


Depends on the type of test: Coronavirus Testing Basics


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## at6 (Aug 28, 2020)

I still practice the distancing and wear a mask as per the "guide lines" which seem to be so superfluous that I am coming to the conclusion that the politicians and the experts are all full of dung.

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 28, 2020)

at6 said:


> I am coming to the conclusion that the politicians and the experts are all full of dung.


Stands to reason, doesn't it? Look at the words: 
POLITICIAN:
POLI - a form of "polly", meaning "many"
TICIAN - built around the root "tice", the source of "entice", but in the form of practitioner of same.
SO: "a practitioner of many enticements", in other words a "pied piper" or "demagogue".

EXPERT:
EX - meaning "formerly" or "in the past"
PERT - root of "pertinent" meaning "relevant" or "having bearing on the issue".
SO: "an out-of-date former authority", a "has been".

Fills you with confidence and respect, doesn't it?
Bottom line: You've got to fact check everybody and decide for yourself who meets your standards of credibility. It's tough to get outside your comfort zone, recognize and try to ignore your emotional biases, and separate hard facts from ideology, but if democracy is to survive, we all need to learn to do it, and do it well. (Wouldn't a benevolent despot be so much easier on our harrassed, overstressed minds? Seems to hold an attraction for many today.) Think about it.
Cheers,
Wes

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 28, 2020)

Yes but is the benevolent despot you describe gluten free?

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 28, 2020)

Snautzer01 said:


> Yes but is the benevolent despot you describe gluten free?


Actually, quite glutinous from his photos!

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## Acheron (Aug 29, 2020)

at6 said:


> I still practice the distancing and wear a mask as per the "guide lines" which seem to be so superfluous that I am coming to the conclusion that the politicians and the experts are all full of dung.


Why do masks and distancing seem superfluous?


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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 29, 2020)

Acheron said:


> Why do masks and distancing seem superfluous?


Because there's so much spurious and misleading information floating around out there that people start to question the effectiveness and necessity of these measures and begin to subscribe to conspiracy theories about nefarious manipulation of the innocent and ignorant public.


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## at6 (Aug 29, 2020)

From reports on various news channels, I'm thinking that this plague will never end. People becoming re-infected with a new variant while World wide there are dramatic increases in the infection rate. China has ruined economies and lives with this one. If anything, it brings us closer to God seeking his protection and guidance.


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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 29, 2020)

at6 said:


> From reports on various news channels, I'm thinking that this plague will never end. People becoming re-infected with a new variant while World wide there are dramatic increases in the infection rate.


I think you're right. IMHO, globally, we've long since lost any chance we may have had to get ahead of this thing and corral it. We'll have to learn to live with it as a permanent fixture, like the flu and the cold, and the sooner we as a species learn to accept that fact and adopt the attitudinal, lifestyle, and institutional changes to cope with it, the sooner we can relegate it to the less lethal status of its viral relatives. Forget panaceas like vaccines and miracle drugs. It can evolve faster than our science can.
It didn't have to be this way. We (or at least some of us) have known for some time how to deal with outbreaks of this kind. We just haven't had the social will and social cohesion to allocate the resources to prepare for this kind of threat before it becomes imminent. For that the butcher bill is being paid, but not by the guilty parties.
As a species, our widespread inability to differentiate factuality from ideology and adapt to rapid change might well be our undoing, or at least the undoing of our society as we know it.
This may sound callous, but depending on your perspective, you could say this pandemic has some benefits. Like reducing the huge burden the boomer generation has placed on the Social Security system.
We who have grown up in a world of eternal verities and stable institutions are philosophically and emotionally ill adapted to life in this explosively changing social environment we find ourselves in. Alvin Toffler nailed it in his book "Future Shock" back in the 1960s. Not enough people have read it. And unfortunately the people who need it most won't read it.
Is this cause for feelings of depression? On a personal level, no, life will go on with or without any particular one of us individually. And our descendants, having grown up in a much more fluid and fast paced world than we did, are better adapted. With any luck at all, they will operate the world on their watch more wisely than we did on ours.
Cheers,
Wes

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## at6 (Aug 30, 2020)

I happen to be one the Boomer Generation and I plan to out live many of the Millennials.

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 30, 2020)

at6 said:


> I happen to be one the Boomer Generation and I plan to out live many of the Millennials.


I'm not sure I want to, but if that's what happens, que sera sera. But I'm not banking on it.
"For every thing there is a season,
And a time for every purpose under heaven."
"Don't fear the reaper!"

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## at6 (Aug 30, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Don't fear the reaper!"


I will be the reaper.

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 30, 2020)

at6 said:


> I will be the reaper.


Only if you make it through the minefield before the reaper finds you!

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## michaelmaltby (Aug 31, 2020)

Be careful what you wish for .....
China’s internet watchdog launches new app to squash online rumours


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## Vincenzo (Aug 31, 2020)

Italy report 30th August, weekly changes
cases 268,218, +8,873, deaths 35,477, +40, recovered 208,536, +3,066, active cases 24,205, +5,767, tests 8,591,341, +583,704, people tested 5,117,788, +377,820
fatality rate 13.2% (-0.5)
mortality rate 588 per million (=)
test rate 142.4 per thousand (+9.6)
positive rate 5.2% (-0.3)
test rate this week 9,677 per million (+2,213)
positive rate this week 2.3% (+0.4)
new case rate this week 147 per million (+57)

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## MIflyer (Aug 31, 2020)

Well, now even the New York Times has been forced to admit that our testing methods produce a huge number of false positives, perhaps even the majority of test results.

According to The New York Times, potentially 90 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have such insignificant amounts of the virus 
present in their bodies that such individuals do not need to isolate nor are they candidates for contact tracing. Leading public health experts are now 
concerned that overtesting is responsible for misdiagnosing a huge number of people with harmless amounts of the virus in their systems.

Looks like what that immunology expert doctor was warning about, with the tests detecting pieces of the virus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 31, 2020)

MIflyer said:


> Well, now even the New York Times has been forced to admit that our testing methods produce a huge number of false positives, perhaps even the majority of test results.
> 
> According to The New York Times, potentially 90 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have such insignificant amounts of the virus
> present in their bodies that such individuals do not need to isolate nor are they candidates for contact tracing. Leading public health experts are now
> ...



That is not what the article says. It says that the people tested may not have viral loads high enough to be contagious. The current testing methods only say yes or no. The experts are saying that we need to different tests that reports the viral load.

From your same New York Times article. Can’t cherry pick data to prove a point, especially one with political motovations.

_” Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time. But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without symptoms, as recently suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive.​“The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation.​In fact, we should be ramping up testing of all different people,” he said, “but we have to do it through whole different mechanisms.”​_​
_ It’s just kind of mind-blowing to me that people are not recording the C.T. values from all these tests — that they’re just returning a positive or a negative,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York. It would be useful information to know if somebody’s positive, whether they have a high viral load or a low viral load,” she added.“_​​​

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## Marcel (Sep 5, 2020)

Yes, PCR tests are very sensitive. The whole question of what influences how contegious someone is is still in research. It's a very complex question.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I think you're right. IMHO, globally, we've long since lost any chance we may have had to get ahead of this thing and corral it. We'll have to learn to live with it as a permanent fixture, like the flu and the cold, and the sooner we as a species learn to accept that fact and adopt the attitudinal, lifestyle, and institutional changes to cope with it, the sooner we can relegate it to the less lethal status of its viral relatives. Forget panaceas like vaccines and miracle drugs. It can evolve faster than our science can.
> It didn't have to be this way. We (or at least some of us) have known for some time how to deal with outbreaks of this kind. We just haven't had the social will and social cohesion to allocate the resources to prepare for this kind of threat before it becomes imminent. For that the butcher bill is being paid, but not by the guilty parties.
> As a species, our widespread inability to differentiate factuality from ideology and adapt to rapid change might well be our undoing, or at least the undoing of our society as we know it.
> This may sound callous, but depending on your perspective, you could say this pandemic has some benefits. Like reducing the huge burden the boomer generation has placed on the Social Security system.
> ...


Sadly, I agree.


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## nuuumannn (Sep 6, 2020)

XBe02Drvr said:


> For that the butcher bill is being paid, but not by the guilty parties.



Politics in a nutshell.

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## Gnomey (Sep 6, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Yes, PCR tests are very sensitive. The whole question of what influences how contegious someone is is still in research. It's a very complex question.


This is true but then we still don’t know how long the antibodies last for immunity. Some people who’ve been symptom positive have been PCR/antibody negative.

We don’t know the viral load to be contagious vs that to be Swan/PCR positive. There’s still loads needed to be researched and understood before we can make definite conclusions on pathophysiology.

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## Vincenzo (Sep 7, 2020)

Italy report 6th September, weekly changes
Cases 277,634, +9,416, deaths 35,541, +64, recovered 210,015, +1,479, active cases 32,078, +7,873, tests 9,219,257, +627,916, tested people 5,538.028, +420,240
fatality rate 12.8% (-0.4)
mortality rate 589 per million (+1)
test rate 152.8 per thousand (+10.4)
positive rate 5% (-0.2)
test rate this week 10,410 per million
positive rate this week 2.2% (-0.1)
new case rate this week 156 per million

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## ThomasP (Sep 11, 2020)

Minnesota report, September 10
cases 82,249, recovered 75,425, hospitalized 6,830(257)*, deaths 1,884, tested 1,646,961
fatality rate 2.3%
mortality rate 330.5 per million
test rate 288.9 per thousand
positivity rate 5%, down 0.1% since 1 month ago
*The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 257 and 339 over the last 30 days.

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## at6 (Sep 12, 2020)

I was going to post a photo that reflects how I've come to feel about the virus.


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## at6 (Sep 12, 2020)



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## michaelmaltby (Sep 12, 2020)

I can't unsee that ...


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## michaelmaltby (Sep 12, 2020)

Hong Kong medics - for whom I have much respect, despite the regime - are now recognizing that fecal contamination in infants and the elderly, can remain 'hot' for up to 4 months. The reality of defending against such a virus is daunting. If we want a society in which COVID is under control (as Polio and Measles once were), the only way to do it at a bearable cost , IMO, is saliva, self-admined swabs - 2 minutes wait time for results. 
To paraphrase the Beatles' song: "Woke up! Got out of bed, dragged a comb across my head ..*" Like brushing your teeth. 
* Day in the Life"


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## Vincenzo (Sep 12, 2020)

7th case in my town, if don't wrong with the count

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## rochie (Sep 13, 2020)

Middlesbrough 1 mile south of me is an area of concern due to rising number of cases, Hartlepool 1 mile north is the same !
going to start wrapping myself in clingfilm before i leave work

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## Marcel (Sep 13, 2020)

Yeah Zuid-Holland where I live has been code Orange for many weeks now. Rotterdam is one of the centres from where the virus is spreading again. Can’t do anything except for following the rules and pray no one I know will be harmed by Covid.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 13, 2020)

My county just turned orange with a record-breaking seven new cases in one day. Labor day weekend come home to roost.

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## at6 (Sep 13, 2020)

Stupid people doing stupid things and everyone pays.

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## Vincenzo (Sep 13, 2020)

8th case in my town

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## Vincenzo (Sep 14, 2020)

Italy report 13th September, weekly changes
cases 287,753, +10,119, deaths 35,610, +69, recovered 213,634, +3,619, active cases 38,509, +6,431, tests 9,818,118, +598,861, people tested 5,924,322, +386,294
fatality rate 12.4% (-0.4)
mortality rate 590 per million (+1)
test rate 162.8 per thousand (+10)
positive rate 4.9% (-0.1)
test rate this week 9,929 per million (-481)
positive rate this week 2.6% (+0.4)
new case rate this week 168 per million (+12)

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## Gnomey (Sep 15, 2020)



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## MiTasol (Sep 17, 2020)

I think this should be the universal punishment for those that refuse to wear masks when mandated and those that refuse to stay isolated when ordered to.
Indonesians caught without a mask forced to dig graves for Covid-19 victims - CNN

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## Marcel (Sep 18, 2020)

My area of the Netherlands has become code Red by Belgium and Germany. Annoying. We’re being punished for what happens in the big cities like Rotterdam where I never come in the first place. But it can’t be helped I guess.


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## Marcel (Sep 18, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> I think this should be the universal punishment for those that refuse to wear masks when mandated and those that refuse to stay isolated when ordered to.
> Indonesians caught without a mask forced to dig graves for Covid-19 victims - CNN


Well that must be the dumbest I’ve seen. Being harshly punished for not following a measurement that has never proven to be effective in the first place. A fine I can imagine, but this is out of proportion. i think people should be punished for not disposing the useless things properly. In Belgium masks were literally littering the streets. There you go with your hygiene.

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## Vincenzo (Sep 21, 2020)

Italy report 20th September, weekly changes
cases 298,156, +10,403, deaths 35,707, +97, recovered 218,351, +4,717, active cases 44,098, +5,589, tests 10,432,814, +614,696, people tested 6,302,761, +378,439
fatality rate 12% (-0.4)
mortality rate 592 per million (+2)
test rate 173 per thousand (+10.2)
positive rate 4.7% (-0.2)
test rate this week 10,191 per million (+262)
positive rate this week 2.7% (+0.1)
new case rate this week 172 per million (+4)


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## Zipper730 (Sep 22, 2020)

michaelmaltby said:


> Be careful what you wish for .....
> China’s internet watchdog launches new app to squash online rumours


These fact-checking sites are merely excuses to justify censorship.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2020)

Zipper730 said:


> These fact-checking sites are merely excuses to justify censorship.



Are you referring to China only or to fact-checking in general?


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## ThomasP (Sep 22, 2020)

Minnesota report, September 21
cases 90,942*, recovered 82,174, hospitalized 7,199(255)**, deaths 1,969, tests 1,855,308***(1,312,937)****
fatality rate 2.2%
mortality rate 345.4 per million
test rate 225.5 per thousand
*90,942 confirmed cases amounts to ~1.6% of Minnesota's population of ~5,700,000 people.
**The number in parenthesis is Minnesota's currently hospitalized COVID-19 cases. This number has varied between 233 and 316 over the last 30 days. The new case rate, hospitalization rate, and death rate all show that we appear to have 'flattened the curve' again.
***This number is the total number of tests that have been processed.
****The number in parenthesis is the total number of people who have been tested. Minnesota has now tested ~23% of it's population.


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## Vincenzo (Sep 26, 2020)

9th case in my town


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## at6 (Sep 26, 2020)

I no longer pay any attention to the numbers around here. As long as I keep practicing safety measures, take my vitamins, and avoid contact with humanity, I most likely won't become one of the statistics.

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## Marcel (Sep 26, 2020)

at6 said:


> I no longer pay any attention to the numbers around here. As long as I keep practicing safety measures, take my vitamins, and avoid contact with humanity, I most likely won't become one of the statistics.


Agreed. I stopped following the corona numbers which are depressing here anyway. Only not the regulations as they change. I’ll just stay home I guess.

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## Vincenzo (Sep 28, 2020)

Italy report 27th September, weekly changes
cases 309,870, +11,714, deaths 35,835, +128, recovered 224,417, +6,066, active cases 49,618, +5,520, tests 11,087,064, +654,250, people tested 6,700,432, +397,671
fatality rate 11.6% (-0.4)
mortality rate 594 per million (+2)
test rate 183.8 per thousand (+10.8)
positive rate 4.6% (-0.1)
test rate this week 10,877 per million (+686)
positive rate this week 2.9% (+0.2)
new case rate this week 194 per million (+22)


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## Marcel (Sep 28, 2020)

Marcel said:


> My area of the Netherlands has become code Red by Belgium and Germany. Annoying. We’re being punished for what happens in the big cities like Rotterdam where I never come in the first place. But it can’t be helped I guess.


So we are a code Red area because in the whole town, 120,000 people we have 16 confirmed cases of Covid.


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## Airframes (Sep 28, 2020)

Latest UK restrictions, nationwide (in addition to some areas under "local" lockdown again), have imposed a curfew on pubs, cafes, restaurants etc, which* have* to have table service only, and must close at 22.00 hrs. ( maybe Covid is only infectious after 22.00 hrs !!].
This is all very well, by I've heard from my friend who' has the local pub, and he's had to close his doors, shutting the pub until further notice, as there is no way he can meet the demands of the rules, being a one-man business. I suspect there are many similar situations throughout the UK too.

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## fubar57 (Sep 28, 2020)

The only way a bar/pub can survive these days

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## gumbyk (Sep 28, 2020)

Airframes said:


> Latest UK restrictions, nationwide (in addition to some areas under "local" lockdown again), have imposed a curfew on pubs, cafes, restaurants etc, which* have* to have table service only, and must close at 22.00 hrs. ( maybe Covid is only infectious after 22.00 hrs !!].
> This is all very well, by I've heard from my friend who' has the local pub, and he's had to close his doors, shutting the pub until further notice, as there is no way he can meet the demands of the rules, being a one-man business. I suspect there are many similar situations throughout the UK too.


We went through that too. Some bars opened, others chose to close.


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## fubar57 (Sep 30, 2020)

If you're looking for a safe place to live, scroll down; New Caledonia sound nice...Coronavirus Update (Live): 33,987,683 Cases and 1,014,931 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


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## gumbyk (Sep 30, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> If you're looking for a safe place to live, scroll down; New Caledonia sound nice...Coronavirus Update (Live): 33,987,683 Cases and 1,014,931 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> View attachment 596681​


Nope - no way you're going to get into New Caledonia: New Caledonia: Coronavirus (Covid-19) safe travel destination ✓ 
Same with most of the pacific islands, and others are worse: they've closed their borders, even to their own citizens.

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## rochie (Sep 30, 2020)

In last 24 hours uk has had.

7108 cases
71 deaths

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## Alex Smart (Oct 2, 2020)

Just a story from across the pond,

A large Country is about to have an election
The President of a large country did badly in a face to face televised debate.
Result - deep discussion about what to do next as there are more face to face meetings to take place.
Find a way out.
Tell the media that the President has caught Covid.
Hoped for result - Simpathy from the voters, votes hoped to be in his favour.
Other option - postpon the election to a more favorable time.
Hoped for result - the President gets re-elected 
Investigation into how he caught the virus.
Result of investigation - Got it from opposition leader.
Opposition leader jailed for endangering the President.
President made a miraculous recovery and is fitter now and younger than any other president has or ever will be.
😃🍻

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## herman1rg (Oct 2, 2020)

How do you catch a hoax? Asking for a friend.


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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 2, 2020)

And we thought Richtohfen had a flying circus, and banana republics were only in Latin America! Ooopps, I guess that includes us now. Spanish our official language by 2050, just you wait and see. Saludas, amigos!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 2, 2020)

Lets not get political again...

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## fubar57 (Oct 2, 2020)

Just read Trump and his missus have COVID. Anyone else hear this?

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## Peter Gunn (Oct 2, 2020)

fubar57 said:


> Just read Trump and his missus have COVID. Anyone else hear this?


Yup, as of 1:00 am Eastern Time is was announced.

I cannot lie, it was me, he asked me to fly to Washington and give him some advice and I forgot my mask.

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## michaelmaltby (Oct 2, 2020)




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## fubar57 (Oct 2, 2020)



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## Marcel (Oct 2, 2020)

I think Adler already mentioned we don't want politics here.

Yes President Trump has Covid. I wish him and his wife a speedy recovery and hope the symptomes stay mild.

Carry on to other topics.

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## Gnomey (Oct 2, 2020)

Trump to be taken to hospital after positive test


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## Vincenzo (Oct 5, 2020)

Italy report, 4th October, weekly changes
cases 325,329, +15,459, deaths 35,986 +151, recovered 231,914, +7,497, active cases 57,429, +7,811, tests 11,784,105, +697,041, people tested 7,117,315, +416,883
fatality rate 11.1% (-0.5)
mortality rate 597 per million (+3)
test rate 195.4 per thousand (+11.6)
positive rate 4.6% (=)
test rate this week 11,556 per million (+679)
positive rate this week 3.7% (+0.8)
new case rate this week 256 per million (+62)

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## MiTasol (Oct 5, 2020)

Interesting findings that need more research.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...ow-coronavirus-spreads-new-study-finds/823777


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## at6 (Oct 5, 2020)

What I get from the study is that "experts" still can't accurately decide what will stop the spread. This thing may not go away until there is no one left to infect.


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## gumbyk (Oct 6, 2020)

at6 said:


> What I get from the study is that "experts" still can't accurately decide what will stop the spread. This thing may not go away until there is no one left to infect.


It's fairly unanimous that a vaccine will stop the spread. Except maybe in the US where not enough people will get it: U.S. Public Now Divided Over Whether To Get COVID-19 Vaccine


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## Glider (Oct 6, 2020)

at6 said:


> What I get from the study is that "experts" still can't accurately decide what will stop the spread. This thing may not go away until there is no one left to infect.



I fundamentally disagree. 

The UK got off to a dreadful start when the virus hit losing up to approx. 900 people a day at it's worst. Then they clamped down on movement country wide, now everyone wears masks when in shops or when close to each other. Stringent cleaning processes are in place and according to the independent Johns Hopkins organisation website, yesterday the UK had 19 deaths due to the virus. 
There have been a handful of days when no one died in the UK because of the virus and the 19 is the sign of the second wave arriving due to schools and universities reopening. As a result the authorities are introducing targeted restrictions in areas where there are hotspots but outside those areas people can travel at will. 

The basics are very simple
a) You can have the virus and be contagious without showing any symptoms
b) The virus is transmitted primarily via droplets in the air. People argue about how far, but no one argues that it isn't airborne
c) Wearing a mask whether or not you have symptoms, massively reduces the amount of contaminated droplets in the air
d) As a result contamination is significantly reduced, reducing the spread 

900ish down to 19 is by any standards a massive reduction, in my mind the evidence is unarguable unless anyone has a better explanation for this massive improvement. 

I fail to see how anyone finds the above difficult or inconclusive

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## at6 (Oct 6, 2020)

I've even started to wear a mask when I'm posting to this thread.

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## swampyankee (Oct 6, 2020)

at6 said:


> What I get from the study is that "experts" still can't accurately decide what will stop the spread. This thing may not go away until there is no one left to infect.



One issue is that stopping the spread requires a) long-term immunity and a vaccination of enough of the populace or b) all the susceptible people die. Option a is not certain, as 1) there is some evidence, currently anecdotal[1], that lasting immunity may not occur 2) there is a significant amount of anti-vax idiots[2], which seems to be concentrated in the First World[3] and the more conservative parts of Pakistan and 3) a sufficiently effective vaccine may not be possible. Option b is deprecated on moral grounds.


[1] There have been two cases reported in the non-refereed medical press. 

[2] I'm being kind.

[3] Interestingly, refusal to vaccinate in the US tends to be greater in wealthier ZIP codes. This is proof wealth and intelligence are not perfectly correlated[4].

[4] See [2]

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## at6 (Oct 7, 2020)

I've discussed the vaccination possibility with my Health Care Provider and he said that he would be first in line to be Vaccinated as a first responder. I would be next due to underlying conditions. The rest of you will just have to wait or die which ever comes first.

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## Vincenzo (Oct 7, 2020)

10th case in my town, a boy of the middle school, him class go in quarantine 
he is not asymptomatic

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## Marcel (Oct 7, 2020)

I still say, the effect of the mask has never been proven to be that effective. In the mean time you are breathing your own exhaust gasses.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2020)

I don’t see how a mask does not *reduce* the number of particles in the air.


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## Glider (Oct 7, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I still say, the effect of the mask has never been proven to be that effective. In the mean time you are breathing your own exhaust gasses.



Can I ask which part of the following isn't clear :-

a) You can have the virus and be contagious without showing any symptoms 
b) The virus is transmitted primarily via droplets in the air. People argue about how far, but no one argues that it isn't airborne
c) Wearing a mask *whether or not you have symptoms (see 'a' above),* massively reduces the amount of contaminated droplets in the air
d) As a result contamination is significantly reduced, reducing the spread 

Re your comment '_In the mean time you are breathing your own exhaust gasses.'_
If you have the virus it doesn't matter if you are breathing your own gasses, because you already have the virus. However if you have the virus, then wearing a mask significantly reduces the chances of you spreading the virus to others.

Remember the UK numbers are massively down from the peak and if you have a better reason for this fall then I would like to hear it, because it wasn't luck.

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## Dash119 (Oct 7, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I still say, the effect of the mask has never been proven to be that effective. In the mean time you are breathing your own exhaust gasses.


Even if the droplets are smaller than the mesh of the mask, some are bound to hang up in the material it is constructed from. And, I'm pretty sure if you ask any Surgeon or Surgical Nurse, the breathing of one's own exhaust gasses is not an issue...


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## Bernhart (Oct 7, 2020)

i wear them for 8 hours a day when at work, don't like them but the whole breathing in your exhaust gasses has been proven false, O2 levels don't change with mask on or off.


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## at6 (Oct 7, 2020)

Wear the mask. It keeps your particulates confined to you. As far as your exhaust gas, it still beats breathing a fart.


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## tyrodtom (Oct 7, 2020)

I'm a bodyman, always in the presence of a lot of dust, or paint overspray.
I wear a mast at least half of every workday, sometimes the whole day.
Been doing this for over 45 years.
I guess it's amazing I've been breathing my own exhaust for that long and still living.

I'm the only 70+ year old bodyman in my area still working, mainly because I wore that stupid little paper mask from day one .

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## Marcel (Oct 8, 2020)

Fact is that there is no proof that the mask does any significant good.
It’s not that I have never worn a mask. I’ve been wearing them for years in the lab and these were not the rubbish people put on their faces nowadays. But I will not start the discussion again. Believe what you want to believe.
Now someone will come up with the “pee in the pants” cartoon...

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## Dash119 (Oct 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> because viruses are 80 nm wide. Not many cloths, even layered ones will block that. Not if you still want to breathe, that is.


Marcel,

So none of the virus will get caught in the cloth fibers of the mask? One Hundred percent of viruses will pass through the gaps between the cloth fibers...
Maybe that is true, but it seems unlikely to this layman. Is there some proof that is the case?

If not, isn't blocking any percentage of the virus from becoming airborne better than nothing at all? In this case, I know my sister the nurse would say anything is better than nothing.

Respectfully,

Kim

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## Marcel (Oct 8, 2020)

Dash119
I removed that post as it was an insufficient answer, sorry. 



Glider said:


> Can I ask which part of the following isn't clear :-
> 
> a) You can have the virus and be contagious without showing any symptoms
> b) The virus is transmitted primarily via droplets in the air. People argue about how far, but no one argues that it isn't airborne
> ...



Okay, against better judgement I'll answer this one as it was the post I reacted upon:

a) There are indications that this seems to be the case indeed. But it still seems rare. _*edit* People seem to hang up on this argument. But it's not important. I'm merely addressing the points made in the quoted post but it does not have a whole lot to do with the effectiveness of masks. I should have omitted this here, but now I leave it as otherwise later posts here would be out of context._
b) although it seems counter intuitive, it's not yet been scientifically proven that droplets play a significant role in spreading, also the role of aerosols are not totally clear. That it's airborne is clear, but the mechanisms doesn't seem as simple as people like to perceive.
c) here again, scientific proof is very thin. There are as many studies proving that there is as much or more virus particles outside of the mask than inside. Coughing makes turbulence, the insufficient amateur masks we wear will let the turbulent air out through both the sides and through the pores it has itself. Unlike what everybody believes, you are usually not infected by the direct blast, but by virus particles flowing in the air, hence a good ventilation system is way more effective than any mask will be. Even the distancing is questionable, although hugging an infected person will not be a good idea of course. We see dentists having on average a higher degree of resistance against upper-respiratory pathogens, even while wearing masks, which indicates that the mask does not prevent infection by said pathogens.
d) Except for, for instance Spain. They made wearing masks compulsory when they were hit hard in the first wave. So everybody wears them, but still the second wave is raging through the country. Masks don't seem to significantly slow down the pandemic in any way. In the Netherlands we did not have the rule to wear masks and the proceedings of the pandemic followed roughly the same pattern as that of the more strict countries. Research institutes like IZA in Germany have confirmed this, the introduction of masks did not significantly effect the spreading of the viruses.

But lets talk about the down sides of wearing a mask:
a) When you breathe in, air will flow in from the side, carrying virus particles. The mask creates an enclosed environment in which the virus concentration will be higher than outside the mask (remember ventilation?). The chances are that you're even more likely to contract an infection than without a mask. Admittedly this is not proven, but neither is the positive influence of masks, it shows you how unfounded all claims are.
b) Breathing through a mask over a longer time takes more energy. This energy is lost for other metabolic processes like the immune system.
c) Cheap masks, like bought from China contain plastics and microfibers, which can damage the mucociliary and lun epithelium, which will enhance the vulnerability for pathogens. Apart from that they can contain particles enhancing the risk of cancer in the long run.
d) Even the WHO says, by breathing through a mouth mask of any quality, the O2 content of the air you breath is lowered. risking fainting or other problems. This especially if you do any exertion
e) above makes already vulnerable people even more vulnerable when wearing masks.
f) the high mask consumption results in an upsurge of plastic waste with all the environmental problems associated with it


I know I'm going against the common consensus that the internet seems to have. I also know that none of this will convince you. If it's any worth, I'm a trained microbiologist with 15 years of practice under his belt. Doesn't make me an expert, though. You guys can shoot at me now if you want.

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## stona (Oct 8, 2020)

Your point A is absolutely proven.
In England (and probably the rest of the UK) Public Health England has been carrying out voluntary random testing in hot spots and adjacent areas. In my region the level of testing has increased by 25% _in the last two weeks._ I had a chat with them when they dropped of our test kits and they reckoned that at least one in three households was agreeing to do the test. 
People here do this 'for the greater good', in the same way that they wear masks. I know that 'the greater good' is something of an alien concept to many Americans, particularly if they can spin it to somehow infringe on some concept of 'natural' rights.
At least 20% of people tested in the UK are asymptomatic and some studies suggest that this figure may be much higher. This should not be a surprise, it has been known from the early stages of the pandemic, with Chinese studies of medical workers and their families in Wuhan, and has now been confirmed innumerable times ( by studies in Italy, Spain, France, Australia, Singapore, S Korea, etc,. etc.)

The issue in the UK is not about masks, it is the politically rather than medically driven lockdowns. There is a difference between a logical response and a rational response. If a boy has his head trapped in railings it might be a logical response to free him by cutting off his head, but that would not be rational. A rational response would be to grease his head, or spread the railings. At the moment we are cutting off heads.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 8, 2020)

40% of Covid cases are asymptomatic. How is that rare?


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## Marcel (Oct 8, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 40% of Covid cases are asymptomatic. How is that rare?


The fact that they are infecting other people is rare. Infectious means “able to infect others”


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> The fact that they are infecting other people is rare. Infectious means “able to infect others”



I understand what infectious means. No need to belittle...


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## Marcel (Oct 8, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I understand what infectious means. No need to belittle...


Sorry Chris when I read your post I assumed otherwise. Not trying to belittle, just trying to communicate clearly. The problem here is that I directly get 2 answers about asymptomatic infected people while I assume that point a is about infectious people.


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## Vincenzo (Oct 8, 2020)

Marcel said: 


because viruses are 80 nm wide. Not many cloths, even layered ones will block that. Not if you still want to breathe, that is. 

sory for this not standard citation

but the mask don't need to stop the 80 nm viruses but the droplets where the virus are in, and the droplets are much larger

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## Marcel (Oct 8, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Marcel said:
> 
> 
> because viruses are 80 nm wide. Not many cloths, even layered ones will block that. Not if you still want to breathe, that is.
> ...


Apart from the fact that the role of droplets and aerosols are not really understood, I believe I withdrew that statement and made a better explanation in a later post. I see people making theories about this all the time although they have no scientific foundation. The infamous cartoon about peeing in your pants that circulates on FaceBook is an illustration of this. I can try to explain what the difference is, but I'm afraid that people will take it out of context as happened before in this thread.

Final word: to see the effectiveness of masks in the whole scheme of things, one only has to look at Belgium and the Netherlands. Demographically very similar countries with a totally different approach. Belgium forcing everybody to wear masks everywhere in public for months, the Netherland more lenient. Still we are both affected by the second wave in similar fashion. They follow the same curve as we do.


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## bentwings (Oct 8, 2020)

michael rauls said:


> I'm not sure exactly what to make of it. By some metrics it looks like nothing anymore worrisome than a bad flu and by others quite bad.
> I think the potential bad case scenario involves sheer numbers. While the fatality rate is no more spectacular than a bad flu it is about 3 or 4 times more contagious.
> Whether this turns out to be just another" bad flu year" kinda thing or something really ugly because 2% of say 30% of the worlds population is alot of people, will depend on how much of a foothold it gets.
> Looks to me like it has the potential to be either no big deal or the Spanish Flu act 2.
> Lets just hope its the former.


Ok, now what effect will the fly on V.P. Pense’s head cause? It was there over two minutes so could have spread or contacted a good many people and animals.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 8, 2020)

bentwings said:


> Ok, now what effect will the fly on V.P. Pense’s head cause? It was there over two minutes so could have spread or contacted a good many people and animals.

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## Vincenzo (Oct 8, 2020)

an other point on the masks
if this are not goof for stop the virus, as they can stop the gases? the CO2 is much smaller.

I've a question for the US friends, somewhere i read that sometime some sheriff or other police authority declared that they not would not enforce the compulsory mask order, as they can do this declaration? They are not committing a crime, disobey a order?


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## tyrodtom (Oct 8, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Final word: to see the effectiveness of masks in the whole scheme of things, one only has to look at Belgium and the Netherlands. Demographically very similar countries with a totally different approach. Belgium forcing everybody to wear masks everywhere in public for months, the Netherland more lenient. Still we are both affected by the second wave in similar fashion. They follow the same curve as we do.



What was the compliance rate in Belgium ?
what % of the people wore mask in the Netherlands, even though it wasn't mandated ?
Without having any idea of what those statistics might be, your final word doesn't mean much.


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## TheMadPenguin (Oct 8, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I've a question for the US friends, somewhere i read that sometime some sheriff or other police authority declared that they not would not enforce the compulsory mask order, as they can do this declaration? They are not committing a crime, disobey a order?



The US has a governmental structure unique to this planet.
Primary authority rests with the people, not the king, the Parliament, or the government by any name.
Some authority was delegated by the people to their States, other authority to the United States. The people retain to themselves all the rest.
That was 1787.
Fast Forward 200+ years, and you see a never-ending crusade to reduce the people from "the Sovereign" to "mere citizens"; while those in authority promote "The Majesty Of Government".

Effect: Whenever a "good idea" comes to the mind of one "In Authority", the impulse is to impose it as a command enforced by armed and armored police.
That's what got our original revolution started.
So it's important to us (culturally as well as legally) to couch good ideas as "good ideas" with study results backing up the goodness of "the good" idea, rather than issuing commands and edicts, and leave us (The People) to manifest our wisdom (or lack thereof).

Another monster in this soup is the number of "good ideas" that aren't, but are backed up by studies that are made (and paid) to produce conclusions that are suppportive of the "good idea". THIS engenders distrust of Authority, Science, and "good ideas".

Then the polarity of the political environment here manifests: if God Almighty revealed to Trump (or Biden) how to stop the Wuhan Flu dead in its tracks, half of the country would reject the solution because of its source, without regard to its effectiveness. This manifests in State/City responses to Trump's suggestions, be they good or bad. SO (e.g.) Maskless rioters go unpunished and uncriticized, but churches and synagogues are shut down.

The Magnitude of The Universe, and Human Stupidity ... so far the Universe looks like it is at best in second place.

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## rochie (Oct 9, 2020)

in an attempt to lighten the mood i have been issued new protective equipment at work !

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## Vincenzo (Oct 9, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> The US has a governmental structure unique to this planet.
> Primary authority rests with the people, not the king, the Parliament, or the government by any name.
> Some authority was delegated by the people to their States, other authority to the United States. The people retain to themselves all the rest.
> That was 1787.
> ...




I'm not sure of understand you, also in the italian constitution is write that "sovereignty belongs to the people" but i don see the connection with my question, if you are a military or a policeman you get orders and if this are legal you must obey or you commit the disobey crime, people has the right to demonstrate versus the mask mandatory order but this a different thing


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## TheMadPenguin (Oct 9, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> I'm not sure if I understand you, also in the Italian constitution is written that "sovereignty belongs to the people" but I don't see the connection with my question, if you are a military or a policeman you get orders and if this are legal you must obey or you commit the disobey crime, people has the right to demonstrate versus the mask mandatory order but this a different thing


The question asked here (and perhaps other places too) Does the Government have authority from the people to issue this order? If not, the Authority has issued an illegal order, and the Police are bound NOT to enforce it. what the Police DO, varies from place to place and from order to order.


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## Vincenzo (Oct 9, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> The question asked here (and perhaps other places too) Does the Government have authority from the people to issue this order? If not, the Authority has issued an illegal order, and the Police are bound NOT to enforce it. what the Police DO, varies from place to place and from order to order.


The question is that, the order is legal or not, but in this case the policeman would go to denounce to tribunal not go in tv to tell i don't enforce the order.


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## TheMadPenguin (Oct 9, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> The question is that, the order is legal or not, but in this case the policeman would go to denounce to tribunal not go in tv to tell i don't enforce the order.



If the Court can be trusted to act quickly and correctly (which is not certain); but it is faster (and perhaps sufficient) to tell the Executive "No, we're not doing this" by a public message, with which the public can pressure the executive, giving the executive immediate feedback to guide revision(s) to order(s). ALSO, party/partisan politics features in both the order and the rejection of the order. Welcome to America.


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## Vincenzo (Oct 9, 2020)

Just as info, in Italy if a order is illegal you still must obey, you can required the order in the write form, if the order is criminal you can disobey, this was for military (in Italy around half of police force is military) i think this is true also for civilian police


p.s. Italy again reported more of 5 thousands new cases today


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## Vincenzo (Oct 10, 2020)

11th to 17th case in my town, all in a asylum seekers house

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## Lucky13 (Oct 11, 2020)

Back into furlough where I work, except for two gaffers, me and another three guys. The gaffers and the other two guys has split up to work Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday night respectively, so two shifts each, while I and another guy....we work the full two weeks, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday _and _Thursday night! 

Better _not _be much to do! 😉😆😂

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## nuuumannn (Oct 11, 2020)

Glider said:


> The basics are very simple
> a) You can have the virus and be contagious without showing any symptoms
> b) The virus is transmitted primarily via droplets in the air. People argue about how far, but no one argues that it isn't airborne
> c) Wearing a mask whether or not you have symptoms, massively reduces the amount of contaminated droplets in the air
> ...



Agree with you, Glider. I guess in the USA, the reality that AT6 describes could quite possibly come about as a result of the US government's piss poor handling of the virus. Over 200,000 deaths and 7 million infected and rising points to sheer incompetence and a basic lack of understanding of how to manage this on a national scale. I spit out my coffee every time a representative of the US government comes along and tells us that its response to COVID is doing well. Just madness! What planet are these people living on? Election time, Americans. You guys need a government that can manage this, or you are all toast. Sorry for making this political, but this is utterly contemptible.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 11, 2020)

While I agree with your sentiments, lets not turn this political again. I know its tough. The entire topic has politics all written through it. Everything about it is political. We, however, don’t need to go down that rabbit hole again here on the forum.

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## at6 (Oct 11, 2020)

Businesses were just starting reopen on a limited basis and now they say that next week we could see them close again because virus cases have risen again. I feel sorry for business people because they can't sustain this madness much longer. It's been reported that 30 percent of the small businesses locally are gone permanently and others are on the edge of collapse Some of the owners are about to revolt and open anyway because they and the people they employ can't survive any longer the way the Governor has been handling things.

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## ThomasP (Oct 11, 2020)

We are not doing too badly here in Minnesota. The preparations we made for the '2nd' wave are working pretty well. As far as I know the hospitals are coping with the increased numbers (we are running at ~70% ICU/non-ICU capacity). The only significant problem I am aware of is the continuing workload on the medical staff/caregivers (although the expanded personnel and modified scheduling have improved the situation from what it was earlier this year). There is also a moderately low level of PPE - not a shortage, but if the sh*t really hits the fan there could be a problem. Minnesota had contingency contracts with a few manufacturers even before COVID-19 came along, and we contracted with various additional manufacturers for supplies since, but just like any build-up for emergency situations there is a lag in deliveries, and the manufacturers are already running at maximum.

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## Vincenzo (Oct 12, 2020)

Italy report, 11th October, weekly changes
cases 354,950, +29,621, deaths 36,166 +180, recovered 239,709, +7,795, active cases 79,075, +21,646, tests 12,564,713, +780,608, people tested 7,592,410, +475,095
fatality rate 10.2% (-0.9)
mortality rate 600 per million (+3)
test rate 208.3 per thousand (+12.9)
positive rate 4.7% (+0.1)
test rate this week 12,942 per million (+1,386)
positive rate this week 6.2%* (+2.5)
new case rate this week 491 per million (+236) 

*with this high rate of positive is easy that the are more positive not find

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## Vincenzo (Oct 12, 2020)

18th case in my town, an other middle school boy


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## Marcel (Oct 12, 2020)

Daughter of one of the band members tested positive. She has sneezed for two days and hasn’t had symptoms after that. The whole family stayed in quarantine for ten days but none of them has developed symptoms. Quarantine is over now. Lucky escape I guess.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 12, 2020)

I’m glad they are ok.


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## at6 (Oct 12, 2020)

I'm not going near my neighbor/friend right now. He says it may only be a cold but he went and got tested. No results until Thursday at the earliest


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## ThomasP (Oct 12, 2020)

Hey Vincenzo,

May I ask about the numbers for children in your country, or even just for your provence? In general the under 20 age group seems to have a very low number of serious cases, and few or no deaths. Here in Minnesota we have had only 1 death in the under 20 age group, but that child was very young (less than 2, I think) with multiple significant health issues. That is 1 death out of ~18,500 confirmed cases in the under 20 age group.


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## Vincenzo (Oct 13, 2020)

COVID-19 integrated surveillance data in Italy


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## ThomasP (Oct 13, 2020)

Thank you for the reply Vincenzo.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 13, 2020)

Well my home town back in Germany is putting restrictions back in place as cases are rising. Not a full lockdown, just restrictions. Young kids not doing what they are supposed to.

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## fubar57 (Oct 13, 2020)

Same as Canada


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 13, 2020)

I’m beginning to think I will never see my family again. I’m so sick of all these ignorant people who only think about themselves. Wait they are not capable of thinking for themselves.

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## Vincenzo (Oct 13, 2020)

19th case in my town an other middle school student

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## Marcel (Oct 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m beginning to think I will never see my family again. I’m so sick of all these ignorant people who only think about themselves. Wait they are not capable of thinking for themselves.


True. We’re going totally the wrong way now. Infection rate has never been as high as it is now. 7000+ per day. Normal health care has been scaled down again. And in the mean time, the police arrested another bunch of idiots that had an illegal party.

also here, the first person to die of Covid after being infected a second time.


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## Snowygrouch (Oct 13, 2020)

I found this an extremely worthwhile data-set - which provides _perspective_ that all and sundry can agree upon regardless of arguments.


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## TheMadPenguin (Oct 13, 2020)

Snowygrouch said:


> I found this an extremely worthwhile data-set - which provides _perspective_ that all and sundry can agree upon regardless of arguments.
> View attachment 598118


Layer on top of that the expected "death by old age" age.


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## Snowygrouch (Oct 13, 2020)

TheMadPenguin said:


> Layer on top of that the expected "death by old age" age.



Layer on top of that the dramatically smaller population in early years, and hence vastly higher impact. Also note that total deaths have exceeded those of "covid year" twice in very recent times which are completely unaffected by changes in life expectancy.

Also layer on top the 2.4 MILLION people in Britain who didnt get cancer screenings due to the lockdown measures. We will be experiencing the fallout from that for the next decade, Sweden - will not. None of this my is my conjecture, simply reporting the UK news. It should be noted if you are unfamiliar with UK data that the ITV news figure of 60,000 extra cancer deaths exceeds the entire UK total for "with covid" deaths (43,000 as of 14th Oct) - (which also includes ANY person tested covid+ within 28 days of death by UK method of recording it - I do not know how this is done elsewhere).

2.4 MILLION patients are caught in coronavirus cancer backlog | Daily Mail Online

Extra cancer victims may reach 35,000 after screening and treatment missed | News | The Times

'60,000 cancer patients may die': Oncologist on the coronavirus dilemma | ITV News

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## nuuumannn (Oct 13, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well my home town back in Germany is putting restrictions back in place as cases are rising.



My friend in Berlin got COVID from a patient of hers and had to stay in quarantine at her house - her husband and child had to move away for two weeks while she recovered. She's okay now though, which is a relief. They had that large protest through the Tiergarten by idiots refusing to remain in lockdown a month or so ago - feckin morons.


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## ThomasP (Oct 14, 2020)

Hey guys,

I am going to saddle up and reiterate some things that have already been posted here (mainly just to refocus) and add a couple of things.

The idea behind the various preventive measures that have been implemented by the various nations and localities have been/are oriented to accomplish two primary objectives:

1. Slow the spread of the disease to prevent overloading the Hospitals and supportive and long term care systems.

2. Slow the spread of the disease in order to buy time to develop a vaccine.

Although it can be argued just how effective the measures have been - there is no rational argument (as far as I have observed personally or have been informed of by people who know a lot more about this than I) that the measures taken have not slowed down the spread in all of said countries.

If we (ie the US and many other nations represented by members of this forum) have accomplished the two above objectives effectively, the number of serious illnesses and deaths have been diminished significantly, to this point in time. What the near term and long term futures will bring remains to be seen.

I was invited to sit in at a meeting (effectively a briefing) the other day at one of the local hospitals I routinely visit while doing my courier job. During said meeting the projections created by the models that are currently being used - here in Minnesota and many other state and federal agencies and/or have been used to predict the spread and effects of COVID-19 - were discussed, in order to allow informed decision making by the responsible medical professionals. There was a very interesting recap of what has been accomplished to date, what remains to be accomplished, what is effectively being done to what purpose, etc.

One of the particular bits of info that I think is worth adding at this point is that, when restarted from the first cases that appeared in the US - [if we had not taken the precautions we did] and with the information we have now - ALL of the models say that we (ie the US) would currently be at somewhere around 750,000 deaths, with more than 1,000,000 by the end of the year. The only time the models do not allow for this level of fatalities is when a particular random factor is added in, ie that the effects become so terrifying that people begin to hide in their homes and not go out unless necessary for food and such. Although the models for rate of spread do not cover other resulting effects for such an occurrence, there are historical precedents for such an event, and the Minnesota departments responsible for crisis management (along with other state and federal agencies) have studied/are studying the matter. Most of you know enough history that you can realize the possible effects on societal morals and the economy, ie social-economic collapse. The conclusion so far, by ALL of the agencies, is that the potential of such an occurrence must not be allowed, as even the lowest level adverse effects predicted would be far worse than any of the effects so far encountered.

Obviously, these are only the conclusions drawn by agencies in the US and may not apply in some measure to other nations or sub-communities.

[edit to add words in bracket]

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## Vincenzo (Oct 14, 2020)

Italy
Today record of new case in a day 7,332
previous one 6,554 the 21st March

p.s. actually the 21st March is highly probable effective new cases were some times that registered

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## Marcel (Oct 14, 2020)

Vincenzo said:


> Italy
> Today record of new case in a day 7,332
> previous one 6,554 the 21st March
> 
> p.s. actually the 21st March is highly probable effective new cases were some times that registered


You are going the same way as we are.


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## gumbyk (Oct 14, 2020)

For those still struggling with why masks are important. This is a very common approach to accident prevention, and sums it up in a way better than I have seen done with words:

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## Marcel (Oct 14, 2020)

Another freaking cartoon

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 14, 2020)

gumbyk said:


> For those still struggling with why masks are important. This is a very common approach to accident prevention, and sums it up in a way better than I have seen done with words:
> 
> View attachment 598232



I think have a mentioned the swiss cheese model a few times in this discussion.

Yeah, I am a former aviation safety guy...

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## gumbyk (Oct 14, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Another freaking cartoon


Some people don't understand words...

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## ThomasP (Oct 14, 2020)

re:"I think have a mentioned the swiss cheese model a few times in this discussion."

Yes, but gumbyk's has superior graphics and labels.

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## at6 (Oct 14, 2020)

And you can make a sandwich with it. Yum.

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## Crimea_River (Oct 15, 2020)

Good reason to wear 2 masks:

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## Gnomey (Oct 15, 2020)

CDC data for age groups. Underlying health issues (respiratory predominating) is the second greatest risk factor after age.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

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## pgeno71 (Oct 15, 2020)

Michigan has found a new way to drive up the numbers. On the state's website they have a new stat - cases per million for each county. Let's take Luce County as an example. Luce County has a total population of 6,631 and has had 28 confirmed cases, but their cases per million according to the state government's website is 4,223. How is it possible to have a cases per million total greater that the total number of cases? This same phenomenon applies to every county in the state. Now I am sure there is no political agenda behind it, as our genius governor has repeatedly said her actions are based on science and data, but has never explained what science or data was behind any of her decisions.


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## Vincenzo (Oct 15, 2020)

simply because the county population is 6,631, 
6,631:1,000,000=28:X


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## buffnut453 (Oct 15, 2020)

pgeno71 said:


> Michigan has found a new way to drive up the numbers. On the state's website they have a new stat - cases per million for each county. Let's take Luce County as an example. Luce County has a total population of 6,631 and has had 28 confirmed cases, but their cases per million according to the state government's website is 4,223. How is it possible to have a cases per million total greater that the total number of cases? This same phenomenon applies to every county in the state. Now I am sure there is no political agenda behind it, as our genius governor has repeatedly said her actions are based on science and data, but has never explained what science or data was behind any of her decisions.



The number of cases per million of the population is one of the standard measures being used to track the progress of the disease within countries. I do agree that it seems rather odd to apply it to such a small population: the small sample size of the local population means that even minor changes in the number of cases would result in dramatic swings in the "per million" statistic. However, from a standardization perspective, the use of a common measuring stick makes some sense.

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## MiTasol (Oct 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> Another freaking cartoon



Based on the very scientific Swiss cheese model of accident prevention by James Reason. That "cartoon" has been the most essential tool in demonstrating safety management practices for over twenty years now.


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## Marcel (Oct 16, 2020)

MiTasol said:


> Based on the very scientific Swiss cheese model of accident prevention by James Reason. That "cartoon" has been the most essential tool in demonstrating safety management practices for over twenty years now.


so?


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## MiTasol (Oct 16, 2020)

If you have to ask you may not understand but here goes

Every hole in each sheet of cheese represents a potential pathway towards an accident, or, in this case, infection.

Every time a potential accident or infection gets through a hole in your protective processes and is stopped by the absence of a hole in the next layer that represents an accident or infection that has been prevented.

The greater the number of layers (defenses) the lower the chance of accident/infection. As an example; moving your social distancing from 1.5m (Australia) to the US 1.8m or European 2m provides four times the level of protection so is effectively four layers.

If however there are a series of holes in your defenses that align with the potential for an accident/infection then such an accident/infection can, and inevitably will, occur.

For example consider masks, social distancing, surface hygiene, hand hygiene, not touching your face with your hands each as a single layer of cheese.

Now if an infected person is not wearing a mask *and* coughing all over surfaces that keep the virus active *and other *people are putting their hands on those surfaces *and *not cleaning their hands properly *and *rubbing their noses lips or eyes the holes in each cheese are in alignment and the infection *will *get through.

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## Marcel (Oct 16, 2020)

I’m not stupid, I knew this, but just putting any words in a cartoon, even this one, doesn’t make them magically true. For all you know the holes are bigger than drawn. What if the mask is just a small border with everything open in it? It is just a bad way to prove that masks do any good as the post claimed.


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## MiTasol (Oct 16, 2020)

Another way to look at it - consider each of these countries as inhabited with laboratory mice

One of these three laboratories has put in place lots of cheese even though the mice are closely confined so the death rate is only 81/m. 

In the other two laboratories most of the mice have far more room but the key members of the government have restricted their cheese by saying there is nothing to worry about, ignore masks, ignore hygiene and ignore social distancing. One laboratory does have some people supplying cheese by wearing masks and social distancing and hygiene. It has a death rate of 672/m. The minimum cheese no smart mice laboratory has 716 deaths per million.







Which of those three laboratories has the lowest death toll per million? The one with the most cheese.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 16, 2020)

Marcel said:


> I’m not stupid, I knew this, but just putting any words in a cartoon, even this one, doesn’t make them magically true. For all you know the holes are bigger than drawn. What if the mask is just a small border with everything open in it? It is just a bad way to prove that masks do any good as the post claimed.



Thats why you have multiple barriers. The “cartoon” is perfectly sensible.

It has nothing to do with masks being good. It shows that masks are just one layer or barrier. Each barrier by itself is not much, but each barrier together helps to reduce transmission together.

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## Marcel (Oct 17, 2020)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Thats why you have multiple barriers. The “cartoon” is perfectly sensible.
> 
> It has nothing to do with masks being good. It shows that masks are just one layer or barrier. Each barrier by itself is not much, but each barrier together helps to reduce transmission together.



For the cartoon itself you are right, but context is important here and it came with a text. It clearly does state that it shows that masks are important. Let me show you, emphasis is mine:



gumbyk said:


> *For those still struggling with why masks are important.*This is a very common approach to accident prevention, and sums it up in a way better than I have seen done with words:
> 
> View attachment 598232




I’m sorry, but I just can’t see how this cartoon is any helpful in the discussion about the effectiveness of masks.

Before anyone takes this out of context again: I do know and do believe in the layered approach. No problem there. But there is more to it. The drawing does assume things like the fact that each of the layers has a relatively moderate positive effect and ignores the possibility that some of the layers might have negative side effects.


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## Snowygrouch (Oct 17, 2020)

An instructive data-set of the UK situation, and relative dates of measures imposed.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 17, 2020)

Marcel said:


> For the cartoon itself you are right, but context is important here and it came with a text. It clearly does state that it shows that masks are important. Let me show you, emphasis is mine:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No need to take it out of context...


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## Marcel (Oct 17, 2020)

Sigh.....


Marcel said:


> Okay, against better judgement I'll answer this one as it was the post I reacted upon:



I should have followed my initial judgement in the first place.
I think I'll remove myself from this discussion, I'm tired of it.

To teach myself a lesson:

```
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
Discussing on internet is like talking against a selective wall.
```

[/code]

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 17, 2020)

No it’s not. I don’t understand that view point. We may disagree, but we are friends and we remain civil. I respect and like you no less than before.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 17, 2020)

I think this thread is not worth the risk of losing friendships.

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