# Earhart's Plane Found?!



## FLYBOYJ (May 30, 2013)

Amelia Earhart’s Plane May Have Been Found Using Sonar | WebProNews


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## Readie (May 30, 2013)

Blimey, finding that plane was like finding a needle in a haystack...
Amazing.
Thanks for posting Joe


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## Procrastintor (May 30, 2013)

No, more like finding a needle in a haystack that takes up like 30% of the earths surface.


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## mikewint (May 30, 2013)

Thanks Joe but still pure speculation at this point, pie in the sky as it were


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## syscom3 (May 30, 2013)

This is the google satellite image of the atoll. What a lonely island.

Nikumaroro - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



loc: -4.68,-174.517 - Google Maps


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## Thorlifter (May 30, 2013)

It would be great to know the answer, but I'll believe it when I see it.


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## Njaco (May 30, 2013)

The comments are priceless.


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## Gnomey (May 30, 2013)

Would certainly be great if it was. Be interesting to see what happens in further explorations of the site.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 31, 2013)

I hope this is it. I have my doubts, but it would be one of the worlds great mysteries finally solved.


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## herman1rg (May 31, 2013)

Intriguing


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## evangilder (May 31, 2013)

If the photo in the story is any indication, it could be anything. While it would be cool to solve the mystery, I don't have a lot of optimism. How many times has the location been "discovered" only to be proven it wasn't. Kind of like the 20, then 50, then hundreds of Spitfires that were buried in the jungles. Maybe I'm just getting cynical. There seem to be a lot of these kind of stories popping up lately that get hyped like crazy that turn out to be nothing. 

Looking back at the photo, it bears a resemblance to Jimmy Hoffa...


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## vikingBerserker (May 31, 2013)

So that's waht happened to him, he stowed away on her plane! I KNEW IT!


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## Capt. Vick (May 31, 2013)

mikewint said:


> Thanks Joe but still pure speculation at this point, pie in the sky as it were



Mike, How can you say that?!?!?! Look at the image! It's right next to the crated Spitfires! Duh!


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## buffnut453 (May 31, 2013)

Not to mention it's pretty close to Nessie's winter holiday cave!


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## Njaco (May 31, 2013)

buffnut453 said:


> Not to mention it's pretty close to Nessie's winter holiday cave!



On the grassy knoll?


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## buffnut453 (May 31, 2013)

Under it, actually!


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## evangilder (May 31, 2013)

It does have an uncanny resemblance to a pimple I had on my nose as a teenager.


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## Wayne Little (Jun 1, 2013)

You Guys crack me up...


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## B-17engineer (Jun 1, 2013)

Will be interesting to see a follow up report


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## Readie (Jun 1, 2013)

Atlantis was actually in the Pacific....


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## Readie (Jun 1, 2013)

Never interrupt someone doing what you said couldn't be done.

Amelia Earhart


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## mikewint (Jun 1, 2013)

It's got to be a really great life. Traveling the world, seeing exotic places, getting to play with REALLY neat super-expensive toys, the chance to become world-famous, and all on someone elses dime. Beats the heck out of working for a living.

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## ccheese (Jun 4, 2013)

I'm with the majority of you guys. I'll believe it when I see it ! For now I'll just wait, and watch.

Charles


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## bob44 (Jun 6, 2013)

This would be great if they did find the plane, but I doubt it. I do not subscribe to the Gardner Island theory. To far fetched and no real evidence.


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## Matt308 (Jun 12, 2013)

...and a twist

Amelia Earhart plane lawsuit says wreckage was found in 2010


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## BlackSheepTwoOneFour (Jun 12, 2013)

Nuts... he beat me to it. LOL! Now things are gonna get interesting.


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## evangilder (Jun 13, 2013)

Geez, rather than be concerned about discovering something historic, it becomes a battle of greed.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 13, 2013)

Saw that the other day. TIGHAR has been getting a lot of flack about asking for big donations and not delivering. To some it seems that they always "need a million more dollars" to finish the search. I'm intrigued about the whole thing regardless; I hope they find her to finally shut up the conspiracy theorists.


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## nincomp (Jun 13, 2013)

I watched the video from 2010. Look at it and see if you reach the "definitive conclusion that that is in fact the wreckage, and it had been discovered two years before our client paid for another expedition."

_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9NXJnwJmRY_
_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9NXJnwJmRY_

"According to TIGHAR, Mellon believes that not only parts of the plane are visible, but also remain of a banjo, violin, guitar, a flyswatter, and even Earhart herself."

I saw a piece of rope and a section of cable (possibly used by the space aliens in the abduction of Bigfoot). Other than that, I got nothing from it (other than a little seasicknes). 




FLYBOYJ said:


> I hope they find her to finally shut up the conspiracy theorists.


I dunno. My experience has been that no amount of proof well convince a diehard conspiracy theorist. Bring in a new expert and: "Your so-called expert is part of the conspiricy." Find physical wreckage and: "THEY planted it there. THEY are very clever will stop at nothing to hide the truth." Find proof of a natural disaster and: "God is also part of the conspiracy."

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 13, 2013)

nincomp said:


> I dunno. My experience has been that no amount of proof well convince a diehard conspiracy theorist. Bring in a new expert and: "Your so-called expert is part of the conspiricy." Find physical wreckage and: "THEY planted it there. THEY are very clever will stop at nothing to hide the truth." Find proof of a natural disaster and: "God is also part of the conspiracy."


Very true. A friend of my brother in law and I went at it over 911 and the WTC. At the end of the day he thinks I'm a government plant!


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## nincomp (Jun 13, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Very true. A friend of my brother in law and I went at it over 911 and the WTC. At the end of the day he thinks I'm a government plant!



So... how did THEY convince you to join THEM? Blackmail maybe? The chance to fly warbirds? Come on, you can level with us.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 13, 2013)

nincomp said:


> So... how did THEY convince you to join THEM? Blackmail maybe? The chance to fly warbirds? Come on, you can level with us.


I was promised 72 virgins


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## nincomp (Jun 13, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was promised 72 virgins



Sadly,at my age, I think that I would prefer the ride in a Warbird.


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## johnbr (Jun 13, 2013)

+1


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## bob44 (Jun 13, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I hope they find her to finally shut up the conspiracy theorists.



Amen to that.


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## nincomp (Jun 13, 2013)

bob44 said:


> Amen to that.



I bet the conspirators* forced* Bob to say that. You are not fooling me!

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## evangilder (Jun 14, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Very true. A friend of my brother in law and I went at it over 911 and the WTC. At the end of the day he thinks I'm a government plant!



But you ARE a government plant.


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## Matt308 (Jun 15, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was promised 72 virgins



Exposure to turbine engines destroys hearing. FlyboyJ was promised 72 vermin.


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## nincomp (Jun 15, 2013)

Matt308 said:


> Exposure to turbine engines destroys hearing. FlyboyJ was promised 72 vermin.


Ouch!


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## richard schwab (Jun 16, 2013)

I would be pissed if i gave some one a Million Dollars and all they showed me was that. It would appear that the camera is moving in the current while having it`s tether line trapped. The wire and rope are no doubt parts off the camera tether.

Rich


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## nincomp (Jun 16, 2013)

richard schwab said:


> I would be pissed if i gave some one a Million Dollars and all they showed me was that. It would appear that the camera is moving in the current while having it`s tether line trapped. The wire and rope are no doubt parts off the camera tether.
> 
> Rich


 
According to the lawsuit, the wire and rope are definitely Earhart's airplane! Don't forget the banjo, violin and skeletons in the video as well.
I will cut the searchers a little bit of slack on this particular video. The ROV was literally at the end of its tether and did not have enough power to overcome the weight of the cables of the boat bobbing on the surface. That particular ROV was not designed to operate at that depth and this dive was not part of the original plan. 

The ROV used in 2012 could dive deeper on the occasions when it was operating properly. On the documentaries of underwater searches that I have seen, it seems that equipment failures always seems to eat up a significant percentage of the search time. The same thing happened on the 2012 search for Earhart. The cameras were down so much of the time that they never got to the area of the anomaly. 

In fact, they had no idea that there was an anomaly during the expedition. The sonar images that included the anomaly could not be viewed in real-time and were not available to the searchers until they got home. The anomaly was discovered several months after the expedition, almost by accident. 
I would truly like to have a job where noone expects my equipment to work properly.


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## mike siggins (Jun 20, 2013)

I live with 5 females I couldn't imagine 72 id just kill myself


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## bob44 (Jun 20, 2013)

mike siggins said:


> I live with 5 females I couldn't imagine 72 id just kill myself



My sympathies Mike. I live with 2 and that is bad enough.


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## snowmobileman (Jun 26, 2013)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was promised 72 virgins


This implies that they will be female, but I am betting on them being 72 Microsoft IT nerds or something!


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## JimX (Jun 26, 2013)

Check out this site....then make up your mind. Amelia Earhart And The Irene Craigmile Bolam Connection


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## A4K (Jun 27, 2013)

Interesting! The 'Gervaise-Irene' certainly does seem to resemble her in the photos there...


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## B-17engineer (Jun 27, 2013)

Very cool thanks for sharing


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 27, 2013)

That is pretty interesting.


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## Njaco (Jun 27, 2013)

JimX said:


> Check out this site....then make up your mind. Amelia Earhart And The Irene Craigmile Bolam Connection



My question would be....why?


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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 27, 2013)

100% BS - with a little research one could poke 1000 holes in another half-witted conspiracy theory although the web page is pretty!


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## GrauGeist (Jun 27, 2013)

Maybe Whitehead came and rescued them in his flying canoe and they floated off happily to the secret Nazi base in Antartica...

That's why there's a cover-up...


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 27, 2013)

So, she is hanging out with Elvis?


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## T Bolt (Jun 27, 2013)

GrauGeist said:


> Maybe Whitehead came and rescued them in his flying canoe and they floated off happily to the secret Nazi base in Antartica...
> 
> That's why there's a cover-up...


If she ended up at the secret Nazi base in Antarctica then you just have to watch Iron Sky to know that she went from there to the moon. That blond is probably Earhart's daughter


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## GrauGeist (Jun 27, 2013)

Dang...then that explains alot, right there!

So then, did they to the moon in the Do-STRA (haunebu)?


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## T Bolt (Jun 28, 2013)

You've got it!


_View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KEueJnsu80_

Iron Sky (2012) - IMDb


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## nincomp (Jun 30, 2013)

vikingBerserker said:


> So, she is hanging out with Elvis?



Gee-wiz! "Hanging out with Elvis." Some of you are soooo gullible. 
Don't be an idiot! She liked 'em tall! She is hanging out with Bigfoot!


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## bob44 (Jun 30, 2013)

JimX said:


> Check out this site....then make up your mind. Amelia Earhart And The Irene Craigmile Bolam Connection



That one is pretty far out there.

Not even worth a comment.


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## mikewint (Jul 1, 2013)

It is indeed a strange scenerio but then Fame is a double edge sword. Look at the problems fame caused Lucky Lindy. I cost him his son's life and he had to leave the US to get some respite. Elvis, the same. He couldn't go anywhere public without being mobbed. I don't know enough about her to say but was Earhart comfortable being Earhart or was this her chance at escape in a more normal life?


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## R Pope (Jul 2, 2013)

Bottom line, she was a mediocre pilot with an inept navigator and stretched her limits too far one last time. A publicity hound, she could no more hide her identity for years than could Elvis, or Hitler. Get over it and let her rest in peace.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 2, 2013)

R Pope said:


> Bottom line, she was a mediocre pilot with an inept navigator and stretched her limits too far one last time. A publicity hound, she could no more hide her identity for years than could Elvis, or Hitler. Get over it and let her rest in peace.


While I agree, I do hope they find her plane just to finally shut up all the conspiracy theorists (or at least most of them)


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## A4K (Jul 2, 2013)

Would be good to finally know the truth whichever way. 

As Mike said, alot of famous people do try and escape it all in one way or another, so wouldn't be surprised if that were proven true - nor would I be surprised if her plane was found at the bottom of the ocean.


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## mikewint (Jul 2, 2013)

Fred Nonan has been given a lot of flack over he years and has always stood in Eahart's shadow. Fred was born in Cook County Illinois not far from me so I've always felt that he had gotten the short-end of the stick. A bit about Fred:
At the age of 17, Noonan shipped out of Seattle as an ordinary seaman on a British sailing ship. During his career he sailed around Cape Horn seven times, with three of those times being under sail. Rising steadily through the rating system by receiving excellent performance reviews, he reached officer status. As an officer on ammunition ships during WWI, he served on three ships that were sunk from under him by U-boats. After the war, Noonan continued in the Merchant Marine serving a total of 22 years.
In the late 1920s he learned to fly and by 1930 he had received a "limited commercial pilot's license" In following year as a Merchant Mariner, he was awarded his Master rating, any ocean," Qualifying him to return to sea as a ship’s Captain. However he remained with aviation and by the early 1930s, had accepted a position with Pan American World Airways as a navigation instructor in Miami and an airport manager in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Once again, rising through the ranks he eventually became the inspector for all of the company's airports.
In March 1935, Noonan was the navigator on the first Pan Am Sikorsky S-42 clipper at San Francisco Bay. In April he navigated the historic round-trip China Clipper flight between San Francisco and Honolulu Noonan was also responsible for mapping all Pan Am's clipper routes across the Pacific Ocean. In 1937 he felt he had risen through the ranks as far as he could as a navigator, and decided to starting a navigation school.
Enter Earhart and her proposed flight. The world was already crisscrossed by commercial airline routes (many of which Noonan himself had first navigated and mapped), so nothing new or important was expected from this flight. In fact it was mostly an adventurous publicity stunt for Earhart to gather public attention for her next book. Noonan was also attracted to this project because Earhart's mass market fame would almost certainly generate considerable publicity, which in turn might reasonably be expected to attract attention to him and the navigation school that he hoped to establish when they returned.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 2, 2013)

And Noonan being a world-class navigator, wasn't going to screw up that easily, which casts more mystery into thier fate.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 2, 2013)

GrauGeist said:


> And Noonan being a world-class navigator, wasn't going to screw up that easily, which casts more mystery into thier fate.



Actually the day of their disappearance (which happens to be 76 years ago today) Noonan got them close enough to Howland Island where she (Earhart) should have been able to find Howland Island. The USS Itasca picked up strong radio transmissions from Earhart indicating that she was close to the ship (and Howland Island).

From Wiki;

_"During Earhart and Noonan's approach to Howland Island the Itasca received strong and clear voice transmissions from Earhart identifying as KHAQQ but she apparently was unable to hear voice transmissions from the ship. At 7:42 am on July 2, Earhart radioed "We must be on you, but cannot see you—but gas is running low. Have been unable to reach you by radio. We are flying at 1,000 feet." Her 7:58 am transmission said she couldn't hear the Itasca and asked them to send voice signals so she could try to take a radio bearing (this transmission was reported by the Itasca as the loudest possible signal, indicating Earhart and Noonan were in the immediate area). They couldn't send voice at the frequency she asked for, so Morse code signals were sent instead. Earhart acknowledged receiving these but said she was unable to determine their direction."_

More....

_"Through a series of misunderstandings or errors (the details of which are still controversial), the final approach to Howland Island using radio navigation was not successful. Fred Noonan had earlier written about problems affecting the accuracy of radio direction finding in navigation. Some sources have noted Earhart's apparent lack of understanding of her Bendix direction-finding loop antenna, which at the time was very new technology. Another cited cause of possible confusion was that the Itasca and Earhart planned their communication schedule using time systems set a half hour apart (with Earhart using Greenwich Civil Time (GCT) and the Itasca under a Naval time zone designation system).

Motion picture evidence from Lae suggests that an antenna mounted underneath the fuselage may have been torn off from the fuel-heavy Electra during taxi or takeoff from Lae's turf runway, though no antenna was reported found at Lae. *Don Dwiggins, in his biography of Paul Mantz (who assisted Earhart and Noonan in their flight planning), noted that the aviators had cut off their long-wire antenna, due to the annoyance of having to crank it back into the aircraft after each use.*"_

My last swipe at this - several years ago I did some research on this and I think I found the closest Japanese garrison to Howland island was something like 800 miles away. 

In 1937 the USAAC just took delivery of the first YB-17s and that summer used them in training exercises. A year later B-17s intercepted the ocean liner Rex in the Atlantic. If anyone really needed intelligence on the Japanese in this part of the world in 1937, several B-17s could have been flown there at altitudes where they would not have even been suspected. This nonsense about Earhart being a spy or captured by the Japanese is clearly squashed with just a little research.

OK, I'm off my soapbox...


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## bob44 (Jul 2, 2013)

Yes, the radio or lack of radio communication was the problem. 
All the stuff about AE spying makes no sense. By the time she would have been over any appreciable Japanese "target", it would have been dark out. And what about fuel to get back?
And all the stuff about landing on Gardner Island, makes little sense also. 
My thinking is, when unable to radio or sight Howland, she either started a search pattern for Howland, and or turned back for the Gilberts.


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## R Pope (Jul 3, 2013)

The whole spying thing doesn't wash with me. 007 aside, a spy wants to be inconspicuous. A world famous woman pilot with all the planet hanging on her every move is hardly the ideal snooper.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 3, 2013)

And on the same token, if the Japanese had found/rescued Amelia and Fred, they would have most likely played that up in the media, coming to the aid of the famous world travellers. Just imagine the propeganda opportunities to be had there.

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## mikewint (Jul 3, 2013)

It has always, to me anyway, been a question of Fred. All of the so called theories have always centered around Earhart with never a word about Fred's fate. Was he killed, die of exposure, etc. Radio hams had always claimed they'd heard distress signals from the pair but again possible BS for publicity.
The British official who had found female bones and a sextant on Gardner Island had always been an intriguing story:
Some months ago working party on Gardner discovered human skull - this was buried and I only recently heard about it. Thorough search has now produced more bones (including lower jaw) part of a shoe a bottle and a sextant box. It would appear that (a) Skeleton is possibly that of a woman,
(b) Shoe was a womans and probably size 10,
(c) Sextant box has two numbers on it 3500 ( stencilled ) and 1542– sextant being old fashioned and probably painted over with black enamel. Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhardt. If United States authorities find that above evidence fits into general description, perhaps they could supply some dental information as many teeth are intact. Am holding latest finds for present but have not exhumed skull. There is no local indication that this discovery is related to wreck of the "Norwich City". Gallagher.


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 3, 2013)

Dave, you are spot on.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 3, 2013)

The Earhart Project


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## nuuumannn (Jul 28, 2013)

A couple of links to a story doing the rounds about a local chap at the RNZAF Museum and some photos he found.

Old Aerial Photographs May Hold the Key to Solving the Amelia Earhart Mystery

Chch man finds clue in Earhart mystery - Story - NZ News - 3 News


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## B29WereWolf (Sep 21, 2013)

Woman pilot, nuff said.....


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2013)

B29WereWolf said:


> Woman pilot, nuff said.....





I've flown with many great women pilots. Some would outfly their male counterparts.

Nuff said...


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## Gnomey (Sep 21, 2013)

B29WereWolf said:


> Woman pilot, nuff said.....



Male navigator...



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I've flown with many great women pilots. Some would outfly their male counterparts.
> 
> Nuff said...



True that!


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 21, 2013)

Gnomey said:


> Male navigator...



If he had only stopped and asked for directions.....

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## Gnomey (Sep 22, 2013)

How do you know if they didn't try that one, maybe the locals just weren't friendly and cannibalised them...

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## nuuumannn (Sep 26, 2013)

Where's Dora the Explorer when you need her...


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 26, 2013)

nuuumannn said:


> Where's Dora the Explorer when you need her...



 it was Swiper!


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## nuuumannn (Sep 26, 2013)

Everyone call out! "Swiper. no swiping! Swiper, no swiping!" Ooow, maaaan...


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## nuuumannn (Sep 26, 2013)

Everyone call out! "Swiper. no swiping! Swiper, no swiping!" Ooow, maaaan...


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 26, 2013)




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## gumbyk (Sep 26, 2013)

R Pope said:


> The whole spying thing doesn't wash with me. 007 aside, a spy wants to be inconspicuous. A world famous woman pilot with all the planet hanging on her every move is hardly the ideal snooper.


Inconspicuous huh? 10 Celebrities Who Spied on the Side | Mental Floss

That aside, I don't put any credence on the spying thing either.


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## nuuumannn (Sep 26, 2013)

Interesting post, Aaron. Fleming was largely responsible for the deceit that became known as "The man who never was" as a prelude to the invasion of Sicily. It is rumoured that his inspiration for his most famous spy creation was a Yugoslav double agent working for MI6 as part of the Double Cross System, but 'spying' for the Germans, named Dusko Popov. Popov had all the hallmarks that we now recognise in Bond, tall, good looking, suave, a way with the ladies, frequented casinos and lived the playboy lifestyle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dušan_Popov

Dusko Popov, Real Life James Bond, Ran Afoul of the FBI | Defense Media Network

None of you guys would make good spy catchers; its always the ones you never would suspect for whatever reason that make the best spies.


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## gumbyk (Sep 26, 2013)

Yeah, but Julia Childs???


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## R Pope (Oct 19, 2013)

Most of those 10 famous spies became famous after they were spies.


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## N4521U (Oct 19, 2013)

?
How could they become famous Before the fact???


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## mikec1 (Oct 20, 2013)

Capt. Vick said:


> Mike, How can you say that?!?!?! Look at the image! It's right next to the crated Spitfires! Duh!


.
.
.
Greetings Capt;


I guess, I missed that one ............. 

"O" well ......... I would still liked to have meet her.



Mike
.
.
.


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## mikec1 (Oct 20, 2013)

Gnomey said:


> How do you know if they didn't try that one, maybe the locals just weren't friendly and cannibalised them...





No they can't do that ......... They can kill us....... but, it is against the law to eat us.


Mike
.
.
.


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## R Pope (Oct 24, 2013)

They became famous for something else after they were spies.
One story was that, while not an actual spy, Earhart was ordered to land on an island to give the Navy an excuse to search for her, thus uncovering any secret Japanese activity in the area.


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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 24, 2013)

R Pope said:


> They became famous for something else after they were spies.
> One story was that, while not an actual spy, Earhart was ordered to land on an island to give the Navy an excuse to search for her, thus uncovering any secret Japanese activity in the area.



With the closest Japanese garrisons something like 800 miles away?


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## GrauGeist (Oct 24, 2013)

R Pope said:


> They became famous for something else after they were spies.
> One story was that, while not an actual spy, Earhart was ordered to land on an island to give the Navy an excuse to search for her, thus uncovering any secret Japanese activity in the area.


One of many stories where the logic just isn't there.

The U.S. wasn't at war with Japan at the time, so any civil plane, like the Pan Am clippers or fishing boats could do the same thing and without drawing attention to themselves.

Also, had the Japanese found Earhart, they would have certainly rescued them and played up the fact in the media. That would be a propeganda tool that most only dream about.

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## mikec1 (Oct 24, 2013)

.
.
.
Greetings Folks;


I started out following Flyboy's post. Along the way I ran into two interesting
items.

1. ...... Supposedly when Admiral "Bull" Halsey was on his death bed, he admitted that the US Naval
Authorities knew what happened to her all along. She was captured by the Japanese and
latter be-headed as a suspected US Navy spy.

I find this story interesting because before she started her flight she was observed being
ushered into a room in the hanger, and having a conversation with some men that was
suspected to be US Government Intelligence people.

2. This is a very interesting set of stamps........ issued by the Marshall island postal service
after the Second World War was over.










Later,


Mike
.
.
.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 25, 2013)

Those are interesting stamps...especially the bottom two.


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## mikec1 (Oct 25, 2013)

.
.
.
....... Yes Dave,


They are. Notice in the bottom left stamp there are three people. If you look close or
enlarge the image it appears that the person on the far right is wearing a flight jacket.
The person on the far left seems to be wearing a khaki uniform, and has a sword.


Mike
.
.
.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 25, 2013)

Yep...that bottom right stamp shows a Japanese flagged ship recovering the Electra and that does appear to be a Japanese officer standing next to the two people (I assume Fred and Amelia)

Very interesting


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## Marcel (Oct 25, 2013)

They are from 1987......


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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 31, 2013)

mikec1 said:


> .
> .
> .
> Greetings Folks;
> ...



All fiction, but the stamps are pretty...

One could easily reseach where the Japanese were in the South Pacific during this period. Their interests were more east. Earheart's plane was picked up (and heard) by Howland Island (witnesses).


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## GrauGeist (Oct 31, 2013)

Marcel said:


> They are from 1987......


Yep, but I still think that Howland island is where it all ended in disaster. There does seem to be more hard evidence indicating that the adventure did not end well than anywhere else.

There will always be speculation and conspiracy theories in high-profile events. The moon landings, JFK's assasination and Hitler's demise a just a very few examples of where the public imagination runs wild.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 31, 2013)

Marcel said:


> They are from 1987......


Yep, but I still think that Howland island is where it all ended in disaster. There does seem to be more hard evidence found there indicating that the adventure did not end well than anywhere else.

There will always be speculation and conspiracy theories in high-profile events. The moon landings, JFK's assasination and Hitler's demise a just a very few examples of where the public imagination runs wild.

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## J dog (Nov 1, 2013)

I heard after she crashed the plane that her new form of transportation was Unicorns and running across water. LOL

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## GrauGeist (Oct 30, 2014)

And the plot thickens:

Amelia Earhart Plane Fragment Identified : Discovery News


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## fubar57 (Oct 30, 2014)

Interesting.

Geo


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## Siddley (Oct 30, 2014)

Would it be usual to find a piece of aircraft skin that has been completely detached from it's underlying structure like this ? I can't think of how it might happen unless a human agent removed the rivets. If they did, they made very neat job of it. Given the difficulty of taking all those rivets out, why would anyone bother ?

I'm no expert on airframe construction or aviation archaeology though, not by a long way.


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## stona (Oct 30, 2014)

Even if it is a part of the relevant aeroplane where's the rest of it? Who's to say that piece hasn't washed up on this reef hundreds of miles from where the aeroplane was lost? Coconuts wash up on the English coast from time to time but nobody thinks they grew here. There are palms that can survive here but the coconut isn't one of them.

I'd need some more convincing that it is a part of Earhart's aeroplane and even more that it is proof of where she went down.

Cheers

Steve


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## Gnomey (Oct 30, 2014)

Interesting! Still feel there is more to the story than has been let on so far though...


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## GrauGeist (Oct 30, 2014)

There was a good deal of evidence found over the decades that do indicate an aircraft was there at one time. In the late 30's (about 1938 or 1939), a colony was established on the island and aparently, the islanders found and used a good deal of aircraft aluminum from some source. The remains of which, where found in the abandoned village later on.

There was also the campsite found on the far end of the island with artifacts that indicate a castaway was subsiting on shellfish, birds and fish for a while, using a damaged pocketknife and stones as cooking utinsils and bottles were found in the campfire pit that show signs of being used to boil water.

Near the campsite, there was also the skeleton of what appeared to be a tall female of European traits found near some artifacts, which had appeared to have been scavanged thoroughly by the large crabs that inhabit the island.

Quite a few unanswered questions, but they all seem to indicate that there was a situation of a mysterious castaway on the island as well as a plane wreck at one time.


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## gumbyk (Oct 30, 2014)

stona said:


> Even if it is a part of the relevant aeroplane where's the rest of it? Who's to say that piece hasn't washed up on this reef hundreds of miles from where the aeroplane was lost? Coconuts wash up on the English coast from time to time but nobody thinks they grew here. There are palms that can survive here but the coconut isn't one of them.
> 
> I'd need some more convincing that it is a part of Earhart's aeroplane and even more that it is proof of where she went down.
> 
> ...



Aluminium doesn't float anywhere near as well as coconuts...
As for whether it is part of her plane, who knows. But it definitely is a sign that _an aircraft _was there.


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## stona (Oct 31, 2014)

gumbyk said:


> Aluminium doesn't float anywhere near as well as coconuts....



A piece of aluminium like that could go a long way.

A more substantial quantity, as indicated above, would be a different matter. As far as I can tell that is not exactly the case, nor have any identifiable human bones been found. 

Cheers

Steve


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## soulezoo (Nov 10, 2014)

I believe Occam's Razor applies here. 

The resultant knowledge vacuum flames the fires of conspiracy where none is likely to exist.


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## stona (Nov 10, 2014)

soulezoo said:


> The resultant knowledge vacuum flames the fires of conspiracy where none is likely to exist.



Particularly when TIGHAR needs more money.

Cheers

Steve

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## Treez (Nov 29, 2014)

stona said:


> A piece of aluminium like that could go a long way.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Steve



I have to politely disagree. Any piece of aluminum that is sheet or solid only goes one direction in water ....... down. 
Pure physics.


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## stona (Nov 29, 2014)

Treez said:


> I have to politely disagree. Any piece of aluminum that is sheet or solid only goes one direction in water ....... down.
> Pure physics.



We don't know how it entered the water or what it was attached to, only how it was found. A flat sheet alone will of course sink, but I could make a good canoe out of sheet aluminium.

Cheers

Steve


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## Treez (Nov 29, 2014)

Good point. Attached to a floater it would travel. 

Canoe . . . even farther !


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## Capt. Vick (Nov 29, 2014)

I actually HAVE an aluminum canoe. A Grumman (Marathon) to be exact. Bought it mostly to say I own a Grumman. I was young(er).

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## GrauGeist (Nov 29, 2014)

Treez said:


> I have to politely disagree. Any piece of aluminum that is sheet or solid only goes one direction in water ....... down.
> Pure physics.


Then apply the physics of wave action, which can move objects underwater, including sheets of aluminum. The dimensions of this particular sheet of aluminum is not all that large and would easily be shifted around by currents, especially wave action in and around the nearby coral reef.


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## vikingBerserker (Nov 29, 2014)

Or it could have fallen from the sky


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## Sweb (Dec 7, 2014)

JimX said:


> Check out this site....then make up your mind. Amelia Earhart And The Irene Craigmile Bolam Connection



That was wild. I never heard of this and even though I have to squint really hard to make the facial similarity work, the personalities supporting it make me come to a near conclusion on her survival.


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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 8, 2014)

Utter BS - there are so many holes in these conspiracy theories you could drive a truck through them. You can’t have a partial conspiracy theory. It’s all of nothing. The biggest issue that blows any of this out of the water is the fact that in 1937 the closest Japanese garrison to Howland Island was almost 800 miles away.

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## meatloaf109 (Dec 31, 2014)

Yep, the most plausible theory is that she and Fred crashed and died in the vast ocean as so many have over the years. I remember something I was told many years ago when I was assigned to the area known as the "Bermuda Triangle"; Pick any "triangle", "square" or "circle" on any ocean you want, the number of "weird" disappearances are the same. Simple fact.... The sea is a harsh mistress,... ships, aircraft, go down. Often with no warning and no trace. 
You pay your nickel, you take your chances.....


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## bobbysocks (Jan 11, 2015)

you have as many or more mysteries in the great lakes...


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## GregP (Mar 12, 2015)

That piece of aluminum came from the Nazi base on the moon. It was a test shot before they return in 2018.

We better be ready for them. Maybe they've been up there so long, they forgot that reentry generates a LOT of heat and they'll just burn up when they get here ... but if they don't, they'll surely be pissed off when they find Hispano Ha.1112's flying around on Merlin engines. That's just wrong.

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## Capt. Vick (Mar 12, 2015)

January, 1863

** "The hen is the wisest of all the animal creation because she never cackles until after the egg has been laid."

- A. Lincoln -


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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2015)

Well now...here we go...

Someone else has decided to make money off of the mystery - Oops - I mean offer expert advise on her demise.

And, of course, it's a consipracy spin.

Here's just a teaser:


> Amelia Earhart was captured by the Japanese whilst on a secret spying mission for the US and returned to America under an assumed name to cover it up for President Roosevelt, a new book claims.
> 
> The aviator lived out WWII in a Japanese POW camp and was given a new identity because the administration feared embarrassment if the truth came out.
> 
> ...



Amelia Earhart was Japanese prisoner in WWII, claims WC Jameson's new book | Daily Mail Online


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## Cybermat47 (Dec 30, 2015)

Actually, that theory makes perfect sense. Disguised interdimensional Lizardmen like FDR never own up to their mistakes.

But in all seriousness, as a commenter on that news article posted, the Japanese would have told the world.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2015)

Cybermat47 said:


> But in all seriousness, as a commenter on that news article posted, the Japanese would have told the world.



My sentiments exactly (two years ago):



GrauGeist said:


> And on the same token, if the Japanese had found/rescued Amelia and Fred, they would have most likely played that up in the media, coming to the aid of the famous world travellers. Just imagine the propeganda opportunities to be had there.



And *if* the Japanese had caught them "spying", that too, could have been used as a huge propeganda tool and played up in the media to their advantage.

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 30, 2015)

100% unadulterated BS! The Japanese garrison on Mili island was small in 1937 and the island was 800 miles away. The Ithaca clearly picked up her radio transmissions indicating she was close to Howland. Even if she crashed there, the state of Japanese/ US relations was such that her capture would have been made propaganda tool providing she was on a spy mission.


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## pbehn (Dec 30, 2015)

Her plane is in a crate full of spitfires, typhoons and tempests. its a big crate.

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## vikingBerserker (Dec 30, 2015)

I bet she is still living with Elvis and Salman Rushdie.

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## Gnomey (Dec 31, 2015)

That makes perfect (non)sense...


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## at6 (Jan 1, 2016)

We should remember that her plane was also carrying the Nazi gold train as well.

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## GrauGeist (Jan 15, 2016)

I think they've discovered the secret Nazi airbase in the Antarctic... 

This may be where Emelia Earhart has been hiding (not far from all those crated Spitfires)

Ruins Of Ancient City Found In Antarctica - The seven tales


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## Gnomey (Jan 15, 2016)

Well seemingly people will believe anything...


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 10, 2016)

The latest.

Eerie evidence Amelia Earhart died a castaway | New York Post


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## stona (Sep 10, 2016)

All that conclusively proves is that the Australians are stretching the definition of 'castaway', at least in the traditional English sense 
I suppose it sounds better than survivor.
Cheers
Steve

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## Token (Sep 12, 2016)

FLYBOYJ said:


> The latest.
> 
> Eerie evidence Amelia Earhart died a castaway | New York Post



"Gillespie said that fro the time the plane vanished off radar on July 2 to July 6, there where more than 100 radio transmissions from Earhart calling for help".

Except, of course, none of these transmissions were heard by the searchers in the area, it was always someone far away and unrelated to the search.

And then, of course, comes the question, just what kind of radar did she vanish off of in July of 1937? And if she was on "radar", why did the Itasca need desperately to get an RDF fix, but was unable to because she (Earhart) was using a frequency that was below their ability to RDF on?

T!

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## bobbysocks (Sep 12, 2016)

why was she only flying at 1230 feet ( how do they know that ) and at that altitude how was she seen on any radar? If I am trying to find a needle in a haystack like an island I would be up several thousand feet where I have a better vantage point and better fuel economy. why didn't she tap out morse code that is usually easier and clearer to receive?


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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

FLYBOYJ said:


> The latest.
> 
> Eerie evidence Amelia Earhart died a castaway | New York Post


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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

There are a lot of books about Amelia Earhart. The best one that I've ever read is called 'AMELIA EARHART SURVIVED' written by Col. Rollin C. Reineck U.S. Air force (Ret.) He lived in Hawaii. I knew him personally and the amount of time he spent researching and dedicating over 25 years of his life compiling extremely detailed information, in the cover-up by the Government and others.There are pictures of EH in the 30s, the day she and Noonan took off, and pictures of her in the 60s and 70s. It's hard to not believe the photos are anything other than the aged EH, who by the way of course went by another name. 
I suggest for those of you that are non believers, is to get a copy of the book before you pass any judgement.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 14, 2016)

But Amelia was on the verge of greatness by completing her voyage, why would she throw it all away by "disappearing" and thus failing to complete her mission?


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## stona (Oct 14, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> I suggest for those of you that are non believers, is to get a copy of the book before you pass any judgement.



Don't bother. 
Even TIGHAR does not believe Reineck's theory. Richard Gillesppie of TIGHAR wrote an article discrediting the book. You can read the full article on TIGHAR's website, here is the conclusion. 
_
"In summary, there is not now, nor was there ever, cause to suspect that Irene Bolam was Amelia Earhart. Those who originally concocted the chimera had their book withdrawn, were sued, and failed to convince two judges of their claims. Reineck’s book attempts to breath new life into discredited allegations by repeating folklore and falsehood as fact. As such, Amelia Earhart Survived joins the ranks of a dozen or more conspiracy books that mislead the unwary and perpetuate the mythology that surround the Earhart mystery."_

The basic premise that Amelia Earhart survived via Japanese captivity and subsequently lived as Irene Bolam was first published in Joe Klaas' 1970 book, it is not even Reineck's original idea. He simply regurgitated a previous work in new clothing. Klaas' book was pulled from the market by the publisher, McGraw-Hill, shortly after its release. Mrs. Bolam sued Klaas, his associate Joe Gervais, and McGraw-Hill for defamation.

TIGHAR has come in for some stick over its own allegations and suppositions about the fate of Earhart, but clearly draws a line at these fantastic stories of her survival and repatriation.

Cheers

Steve

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## Capt. Vick (Oct 14, 2016)

I think it was Lincoln who said that the hen is the wisest of all birds, she only clucks AFTER the egg is laid.


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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 14, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> There are a lot of books about Amelia Earhart. The best one that I've ever read is called 'AMELIA EARHART SURVIVED' written by Col. Rollin C. Reineck U.S. Air force (Ret.) He lived in Hawaii. I knew him personally and the amount of time he spent researching and dedicating over 25 years of his life compiling extremely detailed information, in the cover-up by the Government and others.There are pictures of EH in the 30s, the day she and Noonan took off, and pictures of her in the 60s and 70s. It's hard to not believe the photos are anything other than the aged EH, who by the way of course went by another name.
> I suggest for those of you that are non believers, is to get a copy of the book before you pass any judgement.



I've heard of his work and I TOTALLY disagree. 

BTW I seen Elvis recently, he looks good for his age.


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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I've heard of his work and I TOTALLY disagree.
> 
> BTW I seen Elvis recently, he looks good for his age.


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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

Dear Flyboy,
Your reply doesn't count. Because you said, in your reply, " I've Heard of his work"... " HEARD" OF A WORK DOESN'T COUNT" AT ALL!
In my message, I said don't be a critic, unless you've read the book.
You probably have HEARD of the Bible too. But that ALSO doesn't count.
BTW - You also said in your Poor English, I "SEEN Elvis recently ..." You didn't "SEEN", but if you SAW Elvis recently, you're also wrong.
He died in July of 1977. I KNOW because I was there and helped load his body into the ambulance that took him away !
In one of the the threads listed below, I spent a few hours reading what was written about Earhart last night. You might try reading that. 
It goes on and on with great historical detail and great pictures. It confirms what Col. R. C. Reineck wrote in his book, with several accounts of conversations with important people.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 14, 2016)

Dear Ploesti,
I have just read your account that you helped load Reineck's body into an ambulance. Based on your own words, it doesn't count, because I didn't see it personally.

Regarding Earhart, there is absolutely no reason why she would throw away her career to go incognito. None whatsoever. And there is accumulating physical evidence on Howland Island that carries more credibility than alledged sightings and hearsay.

And back to your own words, Reineck's book doesn't count, because he NEVER saw her. He compiled his book based on other's accounts, photographs and assumptions.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 14, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> Dear Flyboy,
> Your reply doesn't count. Because you said, in your reply, " I've Heard of his work"... " HEARD" OF A WORK DOESN'T COUNT" AT ALL!
> In my message, I said don't be a critic, unless you've read the book.
> You probably have HEARD of the Bible too. But that ALSO doesn't count.
> ...

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## fubar57 (Oct 14, 2016)




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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> Dear Ploesti,
> I have just read your account that you helped load Reineck's body into an ambulance. Based on your own words, it doesn't count, because I didn't see it personally.
> 
> Regarding Earhart, there is absolutely no reason why she would throw away her career to go incognito. None whatsoever. And there is accumulating physical evidence on Howland Island that carries more credibility than alledged sightings and hearsay.
> ...


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## Ploesti (Oct 14, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> Dear Ploesti,
> I have just read your account that you helped load Reineck's body into an ambulance. Based on your own words, it doesn't count, because I didn't see it personally.
> 
> Regarding Earhart, there is absolutely no reason why she would throw away her career to go incognito. None whatsoever. And there is accumulating physical evidence on Howland Island that carries more credibility than alledged sightings and hearsay.
> ...


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## fubar57 (Oct 15, 2016)

Hmmmmmmmmmmm..............?


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## GrauGeist (Oct 15, 2016)

It appears that they are better at correcting other's grammar than they are at quoting a post.

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## Ploesti (Oct 15, 2016)

Dear GG. I see that you can't read either. I didn't say I helped load up Reineck's body. I said that I was present in July 1977 when Elvis 
died, and was part of the ambulance crew that helped in loading up Elvis's body. Therefore, you were in fact correct, you didn't see it,as it never happened. What a brilliant deduction! I suggest you might see more when you know how to read, and take a roll of TP with you so you can clean your glasses more often.
You are also wrong, because if you HAD Read the book, you will see that Reineck did meet with EH,and talked to her under her disguise
as Bolum. I have (had) an uncle who was with the the FBI I.O. who said probably more than he should at a families Christmas dinner, and knew some things dealing with E.H.,but closed up after he realized what he said. My Grandma just smiled, knowing more about it than anyone else at the table. I was there!


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## fubar57 (Oct 15, 2016)

Amelia Earhart Survived

Irene Bolam | Amelia Earhart: The Truth at Last


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 15, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> Dear GG. I see that you can't read either. I didn't say I helped load up Reineck's body. I said that I was present in July 1977 when Elvis
> died, and was part of the ambulance crew that helped in loading up Elvis's body. Therefore, you were in fact correct, you didn't see it,as it never happened. What a brilliant deduction! I suggest you might see more when you know how to read, and take a roll of TP with you so you can clean your glasses more often.
> You are also wrong, because if you HAD Read the book, you will see that Reineck did meet with EH,and talked to her under her disguise
> as Bolum. I have (had) an uncle who was with the the FBI I.O. who said probably more than he should at a families Christmas dinner, and knew some things dealing with E.H.,but closed up after he realized what he said. My Grandma just smiled, knowing more about it than anyone else at the table. I was there!



And we don't tolerate people coming in here and being an insulting ass. You have been warned.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 15, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> Dear GG. I see that you can't read either. I didn't say I helped load up Reineck's body. I said that I was present in July 1977 when Elvis
> died, and was part of the ambulance crew that helped in loading up Elvis's body. Therefore, you were in fact correct, you didn't see it,as it never happened. What a brilliant deduction! I suggest you might see more when you know how to read, and take a roll of TP with you so you can clean your glasses more often.
> You are also wrong, because if you HAD Read the book, you will see that Reineck did meet with EH,and talked to her under her disguise
> as Bolum. I have (had) an uncle who was with the the FBI I.O. who said probably more than he should at a families Christmas dinner, and knew some things dealing with E.H.,but closed up after he realized what he said. My Grandma just smiled, knowing more about it than anyone else at the table. I was there!


Ohh...my mistake. You're poorly constructed sentences gave me the impression that you had loaded Reineck's body into the ambulance, not Elvis. So yes, I did in fact struggle through your post - therefore, I read it. Perhaps you should trade that roll of TP in for writing classes?

Now, let's discuss reality, why don't we?

Earhart was a person who pushed herself to be the best, to accomplish things that others hadn't. So why, at the verge of accomplishing greatness, she all of a sudden quits and drops out of public view. This flies in the face of everything that she ever worked hard for and wanted to achieve.

Anybody can write a book and publish it. The world is loaded down with publications about secret Nazi airbases, Lizard people, faked moon landings and whatnot. This means nothing.

The fact of the matter is, that official government records clearly state that Amelia and Fred were near the Itasca...they did not have enough fuel to fly off to Japanese held territory and other destinations as some theories suggest. Anyone who has examined her Lockheed's modified fuel capacity and consumption data will know this as a fact.

As has been stated before, the Imperial Japanese Government knew that Earhart was a world-wide celebrity and if she were in need of help, they would have had a HUGE propaganda boost by lending her aid, not capturing her as a spy and run the risk of causing a worldwide media sensation that put them in a negative light - especially when they were trying to keep tension between them and the U.S. down at the time. The Japanese weren't stupid.

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## stona (Oct 15, 2016)

Not forgetting that Mrs Bolam sued the original perpetrators of this myth having no way of knowing that they would back down and settle out of court. If Bolam had been Earhart this would have been an incredibly risky thing to do as it might well have entailed extensive investigations into her true identity, which would surely have been revealed by any rigorous inquiries. Of course, if Mrs Bolam was ....errrr ...Mrs Bolam, then there was no risk at all which makes her bringing the case for defamation much more easily explainable. Any investigation would have shown that she was who she said she was 
Cheers
Steve


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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 15, 2016)

Ploesti said:


> Dear Flyboy,
> Your reply doesn't count. Because you said, in your reply, " I've Heard of his work"... " HEARD" OF A WORK DOESN'T COUNT" AT ALL!
> In my message, I said don't be a critic, unless you've read the book.
> You probably have HEARD of the Bible too. But that ALSO doesn't count.
> ...


Well here's something in more poor English - you're being a total asshole. I suggest you read the rules of this forum and decide if you want to continue to play here. In the mean time I suggest you do some research in Japanese military strength in the region and how far away the closest garrison was from Howland Is.


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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 15, 2016)

Ya know Ploesti, after reading some of your other responses, I determined that this probably isn't the place for you, enjoy cyberspace


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## Tom Maxwell (Oct 15, 2016)

I would like to throw my idea (theory?) into the discussion mix. The idea has been on other aviation forums- many may have already seen it. It is a Japanese capture theme except the spy angle is entirely different. Is this the B25 that went missing 1944 Canton -to Tutulla, Samoa? is it Amelia Earhart's L10E? or is it a pile of rocks? More info at Pacific Wrecks(Wreck and Losses)or my website aquariusradar.com/OronaSaipanTheory.html


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 15, 2016)

I think anyone can see whatever they want to see in that picture...

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## stona (Oct 16, 2016)

When someone produces one piece of hard evidence that Earhart and Noonan were ever in Japanese hands then I'll take these theories seriously. If the Japanese military really 'captured' two such high profile Americans there would be plenty of it. 
"Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead", yet we are expected to believe that dozens or hundreds took this one to their graves.

As for that photograph....Jeeez. 

Cheers

Steve

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## Shinpachi (Oct 16, 2016)

Interesting progress of talking as it sometimes goes.

Not only the Pacific War but even the 2nd Sino-Japanese War did not happen when Earhart disappeared.
Since the Manchurian Incident in 1931, U.S. and Japan had been seeking a better solution for the eternal peace between two countries and this effort was continued till just before the Pearl Harbor in early December of 1941.

If Japanese had been so fortunate as to find and rescue Earhart, Americans would have been very grateful for it and the coming Pacific War might have been avoided.

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## stona (Oct 17, 2016)

Shinpachi said:


> If Japanese had been so fortunate as to find and rescue Earhart, Americans would have been very grateful for it and the coming Pacific War might have been avoided.



Quite right Shinpachi. If the Japanese had found Earhart and Noonan the last thing they would have done was keep it secret. It would have been a huge propaganda opportunity for the Japanese, and one that they would have taken.
This is just one of many reasons why all the theories based on the premise that somehow the pair fell into Japanese hands just don't hold water.

There are only really two supportable theories. First, that they went into the Pacific Ocean and were lost without trace. Second, that they made landfall and a forced landing on a remote island (insert name of your choice) and subsequently perished there.
Whatever I may think of TIGHAR, it essentially pursues the second option, and it is a possibility at least. They haven't produced the evidence to convince me, but the possibility cannot be ignored.

Cheers

Steve

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## buffnut453 (Oct 17, 2016)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think anyone can see whatever they want to see in that picture...



If I cross my eyes slightly, i get a perfect 3D picture of a dolphin balancing a beachball on its snout. Then again, it might be work-induced stress indicating it's time for me to vacation to the place with the beige decor and bouncy walls.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 17, 2016)

I imagine the life raft was rubber so I don't see that being scuttled.

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## Shinpachi (Oct 17, 2016)

I loved adventure novels like Robinson Crusoe, Two Years Holiday and 20000 Leagues Under the Sea as a kid but had never heard of such an exciting story as Japan's involvement on the Earhart's disaster. I would have more loved it than novels if there had been any possibilities

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## Tom Maxwell (Oct 20, 2016)

Here is an oblique view of the Orona lagoon from GE 2006


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 20, 2016)

lol

No offense, but there is nothing in that computerized screenshot.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 20, 2016)

Except my dolphin balancing a beach ball on it's snout...this time it's in perspective with the background. 

All right...I'll get my coat!

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## fubar57 (Oct 21, 2016)

Sorry but I couldn't see anything either but if you look closer.....

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## bobbysocks (Oct 23, 2016)

if she was alive she would have been able to tell us exactly where the Japanese buried 17 A6Ms, brand new in crates, on Howland.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 1, 2016)

And the beat goes on...

Did Amelia Earhart die as a castaway on a remote island?

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 4, 2016)

Well , no. Just about every student of the AE mystery has dismissed the Nikumaroro theory years ago. Dying of thirst and eaten by crabs. A dreadful idea. I rather think AE spent five pleasant years on Roi-Namur before dying under attentive but unsuccessful medical care on Saipan. In order to believe in crash and sink or Nikumaroro one must think the US Marine veterans of the Saipan liberation were spinning war yarns ( a kinder way of saying lying). The Orona Saipan theory hasn't been tested. The other major ideas have been tested numerous times and failed each test. That's what theories are for- test methods to find the truth. The truth can then become history or science, etc. E=MC2 was mostly theory until a scientist pushed the plunger down in the New Mexico desert and on seeing the dramatic result said.. Damn, this really does work!


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## Robert Porter (Nov 4, 2016)

You missed one fubar57 but it is okay, I added it.


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 4, 2016)

Tom Maxwell said:


> Well , no. Just about every student of the AE mystery has dismissed the Nikumaroro theory years ago. Dying of thirst and eaten by crabs. A dreadful idea. I rather think AE spent five pleasant years on Roi-Namur before dying under attentive but unsuccessful medical care on Saipan. In order to believe in crash and sink or Nikumaroro one must think the US Marine veterans of the Saipan liberation were spinning war yarns ( a kinder way of saying lying). The Orona Saipan theory hasn't been tested. The other major ideas have been tested numerous times and failed each test. That's what theories are for- test methods to find the truth. The truth can then become history or science, etc. E=MC2 was mostly theory until a scientist pushed the plunger down in the New Mexico desert and on seeing the dramatic result said.. Damn, this really does work!



Believe what you want, if you look at the underlying facts (transmissions received from the Ithaca) and the way AM radio works, she was close to Howland at one point - FACT!

The closest Japanese garrison - 800 miles away manned by a handful of soldiers - FACT!

As been pointed out here many times, the politics of the day dismiss a Japanese capture. It also dismisses a spy mission.

E=MC2, sure - I know plenty of Marines who lie, especially at closing time.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 4, 2016)

fubar57 said:


> Sorry but I couldn't see anything either but if you look closer.....
> 
> View attachment 355339


You sir, have earned bacon for the day!


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## Gnomey (Nov 6, 2016)

fubar57 said:


> Sorry but I couldn't see anything either but if you look closer.....
> 
> View attachment 355339


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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 6, 2016)

Reviewing Flyguy's post: 

Yes, the flight got very close to Howland Island. But the flight overflew Howland and after searching, the flight turned south in hopes of finding one of Phoenix group. Noonan was familiar with the National Geographic expedition at Canton only three weeks earlier and thought help might still be there. The Itasca never transmitted a homing signal the flight could use. Couldn't see smoke...no sense in searching further. Kelly Johnson said the aircraft had the necessary endurance and could fly to the Phoenix group.

Yes the Japanese presence in the Marshalls was limited and didn't build up substantially until the war started. But to believe the pro-Axis Japanese would not be survelling whoever and whenever they could doesn't make sense. Only a small party of radio experts on Nikumaroro would be necessary to pick up the conversations of the HMS Wellington and USS Avocet at Canton and later the faint signals of Amelia's radio from Orona.

Yes Amelia was a pacifist and would never be involved in spying. The Orona theory is not about AE spying, it's about her being accused of spying ..a Hoax by the IJA...to influence the IJN.

Earlier in the thread someone noted that it would take dozens, perhaps 100's of dead men to keep the spy hoax and AE's capture secret. That's exactly what happened at Roi-Namur and at Saipan. The Japanese soldier.. very determined and a tenacious fighter..only a few surveyed out of the thousands in the defending garrisons. The Marines killed them all.


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 6, 2016)

Tom Maxwell said:


> Reviewing Flyguy's post:
> 
> Yes, the flight got very close to Howland Island. But the flight overflew Howland and after searching, the flight turned south in hopes of finding one of Phoenix group. Noonan was familiar with the National Geographic expedition at Canton only three weeks earlier and thought help might still be there. The Itasca never transmitted a homing signal the flight could use. Couldn't see smoke...no sense in searching further. Kelly Johnson said the aircraft had the necessary endurance and could fly to the Phoenix group.
> 
> ...



And reviewing Tom's post - you seem to know little about aircraft and the events of the day - first of all Kelly Johnson didn't design the Model 10, it was designed by Hal Hibbard and Lloyd Stearman, Kelly suggested some design changes to the tail when the aircraft was placed in a wind tunnel, aside from this, what's your point? The fact that the Ithaca picked up a strong LF radio signal PROVED beyond a shadow of a doubt that the aircraft was close to Howland and in one of Earhart's transmission she said they were *low on fuel* killing any theory that she was anywhere else in the Pacific. The fact that Kelly Johnson "SAID" the aircraft had the range to make the Phoenix group is irrelevant, BTW, Kelly Johnson didn't even have a pilot's license during this period!!! Kelly Johnson would have had to be clairvoyant as well as a brilliant engineer to know their fuel situation was they neared Howland!!!

FACT - Earhart made it close to Howland and was low on fuel (Possibly 4 hours at about 120 mph groundspeed depending on winds)
FACT - She was heard transmitting on her radio at a time when she probably ran out of fuel or landed her aircraft
FACT - (I'll repeat) The closest Japanese garrison was 800 miles away
FACT - The state of US/ Japanese relations in 1937 were not hostile

The only significant event that strained US/ Japanese relations at this time was the USS Panay incident which occurred months after Earhart's disappearance,

You keep bringing up theories but not a shread of evidence to support them. What does the tenacity of the Japanese soldier have to do with this?!? Dead witnesses?!? No supporting documentation and years of questionable witnesses. Bottom line, you're grasping at air to conger a conspiracy theory that doesn't exist.

I've read about the "Orona theory." Think about this - its war time1944 and the US discovers that Amelia Earhart was held captive since 1937 and then dies in Japanese captivity - *THE GREATEST PIECE OF ANTI-JAPANESE PROPAGANDA SINCE PEARL HARBOR!!!

Don't you think someone would have wanted this news out to further rally the American People!!!*



Is E=MC2 a theory? Maybe we should try turning coal into gold!

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## Shinpachi (Nov 7, 2016)

That's correct, FLYBOY.

The worst period between the western countries, especially America, and Japan was, if I may dare to say very simply, only 5 years from December 1941 to August 1945. There were many westernized Japanese people who were happy to speak English as well as French and German until 1940 when the local mass media like Asahi Shinbun which supported militarism strongly launched anti-English campaign. I must remark, however, that the navy did not necessarily obey the mood like the army as it was originally pro-British since its foundation in 1872.

Tojo was a countryman who did not understand the world but Yamamoto was a genuine military man who obeyed Emperor's order.

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 7, 2016)

As Flyboy points out, the Orona-Saipan theory has a long way to go before getting any traction among investigators of the AE mystery. 2017 will be a turning point if TIGHAR group gets the deep dive off Nikumaroro financed. I think this should put the Nikumaroro theory to sleep as professional HURL personnel will be operating the PISCS IV and V diving machines and observing during the dives. This will prevent the "we discovered an anomaly and must return" excuse to continue considering Nikumaroro. With Nikumaroro out, that leaves crash and sink, New Britain PNG, Milli Atoll, and last and least Ortona. My prediction is that Orona will be next to be tested simply because of low cost. Crash and sink costs millions. Who will do it? I don't know.


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 7, 2016)

Crash and sink or the castaway theory IMO are the on viable avenues to look at as they have offered the greatest amount of sensible evidence so far. IMO I believe she landed (or crash landed) the aircraft in a location where she thought it could be salvaged. I make that statement because what's never brought up is she made two attempts to fly around the world. On the first attempt she ground looped her aircraft on Ford Island. It had to be shipped backed to Lockheed for repairs. Although she had folks with deep pockets backing her, I'm sure she was considering the loss of her Model 10 which cost $80,000 ($1.3 million in today's money) and the $30,000 it cost to fix it. If you ever flew in an aircraft approaching bingo fuel it's amazing, despite being taught about self-preservation the remarkable ability one's brain has to recall purchase and repair cost of the aircraft you're flying as that fuel caution light illuminates. Additionally, there's an old navy saying, "it's better to die than to look bad." Again my opinion...

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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2016)

Tom Maxwell said:


> As Flyboy points out, the Orona-Saipan theory has a long way to go before getting any traction among investigators of the AE mystery. 2017 will be a turning point if TIGHAR group gets the deep dive off Nikumaroro financed. I think this should put the Nikumaroro theory to sleep as professional HURL personnel will be operating the PISCS IV and V diving machines and observing during the dives. This will prevent the "we discovered an anomaly and must return" excuse to continue considering Nikumaroro. With Nikumaroro out, that leaves crash and sink, New Britain PNG, Milli Atoll, and last and least Ortona. My prediction is that Orona will be next to be tested simply because of low cost. Crash and sink costs millions. Who will do it? I don't know.


However, Nikumaroro island has the only evidence in the form of aircraft wreckage and non shipwreck/colonist presence. The shipwreck was on the opposite island from where aircraft wreckage was found as well as the artifacts that were non-shipwreck related.

There were also credible reports from pilots and sailors who reported signs of habitation before the British brought colonists to the island. Add to this, the verified radio direction finder bearings from Wake, Midway and Hawaii that converge on the Pheonix group, falling almost directly on Nikumaroro island during the short time that radio transmissions were picked up after her disappearance.

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## Peter Gunn (Nov 17, 2016)

I think the part that saddens me the most is how easily people can ignore some basic facts and latch on to some runaway theory that does a pretty good dis-service to the actual people involved at the time (AE, U. S. Navy, Japan). The Nikumaroro thing to me is at least _plausible_, but I lament that crackpot theories with NO basis in fact are considered (and will probably gain traction as the years pile up) "history". The whole 'captured by the Japanese and killed as a spy' thing is so patently ridiculous to any thinking person as to belie imagination, yet over the years it now seems it's an accepted theory/fact as to what happened to her.

Cr*st all Friday, I lose faith in the human race more each day.

As an aside, I've always figured it was crash and sink unfortunately, but any evidence to the contrary (based in fact) makes me keep an open mind about it.

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## Robert Porter (Nov 19, 2016)

I was fascinated with this story for years and have read everything I could lay my hands on. Have to agree with FlyBoyJ. From what few facts are known the crash and sink and/or Nikumaroro castaway thoughts seem the most likely. I just cannot believe if she had been captured and executed we would not have heard something. It would have been a propaganda coup for both sides. The problem is at this point honestly all we have are thoughts and theory there is darn little factual data to support any serious conclusions. 

Truly, just for the sake of historical closure I would love for someone to definitively find the evidence to close this event out. But as more time goes by the likelihood of that happening gets much less. I suppose she, along with Hitler, and Elvis, could have been kidnapped by aliens at this point its probably as viable a theory as any other.

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 20, 2016)

The 2017 Nikumaroro expedition will be the tenth test of the Nikumaroro theory. All the previous tests at Nikumaroro have failed to bring forth definitive evidence.
The Orona theory is not new. James Donahue's 1987 book claims that the flight landed at Orona (Hull Island) and that the resident manager William Jones was an agent of British intelligence. And further, the USN made up the entire -Lambrecht landed and talked to Jones- story. Donahue thought that Jones and coconut crew pushed the aircraft off the reef flat and sank it in deep water. Sound familiar? This "AE was a spy" version says AE died while under house arrest in American Samoa.

My current Orona theory says the flight crashed at Orona and she was captured by Japanese. Somehow Donahue got wind of the Orona story and Jones involvement. Entirely different scenerios of course. My version says AE was not a spy and she was not executed. She was the pawn in a hoax spy accusation by the IJA convincing the IJN that the US was spying. All of those involved in the captivity and death of AE (by illness) died at either Roi-Namor or Saipan. The top military people- Saito, Nagumo, Yamamoto - all died before war's end. Tojo took the secret with him to the gallows.

Testing Orona will be easy. Water depth about 35 feet. If the image is light and shadow and not the real thing, the test will be a one time test. None of this -we found an anomaly.....


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## GrauGeist (Nov 20, 2016)

Nonsense...like I have stated before, if the Japanese came across Earnhart in distress, this would have been a *HUGE* propaganda opportunity for them as the benevolent saviors.

The Nikumororo (Gardner) Island artifacts lend far more credibility as they indicate not only a woman's presence there, but there is also period aircraft debris all found in an area that had no contact with later colonists or the earlier shipwreck event.

Also, Nikumororo is in line with Howland Island with respect to the Electra's fuel capacity and would be consistant with a navigational error in regards to the Electra's fuel exhaustion. Add to that, the radio beam triangulation from U.S. military radio stations in the short time after her disappearance and this adds up to far more credibility than conspiracy theories and whatnot. The Japanese weren't stupid...a quick search of her aircraft would have shown that there was no surveillance or photo recon aboard. And again, she was a world-wide celebrity and would have been a massive PR coupe if the Japanese had rescued her.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 20, 2016)

Evidently Tom needs a history lesson about US/ Japanese relations in 1937. All this cloak and dagger myth is from an over active imagination.

Tom, as mentioned, you're entitled to your opinions and theories are all good, but when they don't match the actual and REAL current events of the day, those theories become myths and distortions. For example, as for some of those who could have been behind holding EA;

In 1937 Tojo was in China. In 1937 Yamamoto was Deputy Navy Minister, way above the capacity of playing with a captured American flyer. In 1937 Nagumo was the commander of the IJN torpedo school at Oppama near Yokosuka, thousands of miles from the South Pacific and Saito was in China as a major general.

Tom, wrap your head around the fact that Japan was not preparing for war against the US when EA disappeared, relations were good and the US was still trading with Japan and all those major players didn't come on scene until 1939/ 1940. The push for war against western powers began in 1940 and it wasn't until mid 1941 when the US embargo began, did the Japanese become truly anti-west. If EA disappeared in 1940, your theory would be more creditable, but actual events of the day blow it out of the water!

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## Shinpachi (Nov 20, 2016)

This is a Japanese weekly magazine published in 1937.
Deanna Durbin - a Hollywood Star

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## Shinpachi (Nov 20, 2016)

From April 10 to August 10 in 1937, Helen Keller visited Japan for the US-Japan friendship !

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## Robert Porter (Nov 20, 2016)

I have often read, with the notable exception of Tojo, that most of the Japanese military was not at all interested in war with the US. That sentiment changed somewhat about 1939 - 1940 as we pressed harder for them to leave China and threatened an embargo of several critical materials if they did not. Until that time Japan was more friendly than not to the US. I find it incomprehensible that they would at any level have done anything other than render aide to AE if she were found by them. Since I don't actually know the truth I cannot say for certain that it did not happen. But I believe *Ockham's razor *applies here and the simplest answer that fits the known facts is most likely the truth.

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## Shinpachi (Nov 20, 2016)

Good point, Robert 

Baseball became very popular rapidly in Japan since 1934 when Babe Ruth visited.










Japan's baseball magazine in 1937.

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 20, 2016)

You are confusing Japanese society and the pro-Axis (Nazi) elements that slowly enveloped the nation's political system. Germany and the US maintained relations until it became apparent what Hitler was up to. Japan and the US maintained relations until the IJA crimes in China became intolerable. Japanese society was kept in the dark about what was developing. The Japanese military didn't wait until a summers day in 1941 to decide to ramp up capability and plan the Pearl Harbor attack. The planning and training to attack the US took years starting in the middle of 1937. The IJA rampage in China that started in late '37 forced the buildup as the pro-Axis forces in the IJA knew war with the US was inevitable. Tojo in China doing his dirt to the Chinese in 1937 doesn't mean he could not control the IJA in the mandated area.

Yamamoto was not involved in the initial capture. He and other IJN leaders were the target of the spy hoax. The IJA portrayed AE as a spy and helped motivate the IJN to a offense strategy. Abandoning the decades old defensive strategy took years of re-training in tactics and equipment. Yamamoto rejected the idea of war with the US knowing the US could float much more steel in the long run. The spy hoax, political pressures, and veiled death threats from Tojo's goons forced him into the Pearl Harbor plan.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 20, 2016)

The US maintained diplomatic relations with Nazi Germany even after the US ambassador was recalled in late 1938 following Kristallnacht. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Japan and Italy wasn't signed until 1940. The tipping point for war between the US and Japan was the latter's move into southern Indo-China in July 1941. How can these events possibly have influenced Amelia Earhart's disappearance in 1937? Your timeline simply doesn't make sense.

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## Robert Porter (Nov 21, 2016)

On another forum years ago I read a long thread where two folks honestly seem to believe that a US "special" unit attacked Pearl Harbor with Japanese planes in order to push the US into the war. No amount of factual argument could dissuade these folks of their theory. There are pictures of us pulling dead Japanese pilots from the harbor, and those pilots had identity papers. Not to mention thousands of pages of Japanese planning documents recovered after the war etc. I guess some people just want to cling to their world view no matter how much it strays from established fact. Hey, they could be right I suppose but honestly I think I will stick to the known and documented facts and timelines that are well established.

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## Shinpachi (Nov 21, 2016)

I understand there was conflict of interest between two countries in the prewar but I think I have found out the evidence that the relationship between the U.S. and Japan was friendly and normal when she was alive. Here are copies of official documents issued by the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo though the flight itself seems cancelled.

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 21, 2016)

buffnut453 said:


> The US maintained diplomatic relations with Nazi Germany even after the US ambassador was recalled in late 1938 following Kristallnacht. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Japan and Italy wasn't signed until 1940. The tipping point for war between the US and Japan was the latter's move into southern Indo-China in July 1941. How can these events possibly have influenced Amelia Earhart's disappearance in 1937? Your timeline simply doesn't make sense.



Well obviously buffnut453 is looking at the timeline from some angle that is different than mine. Events that occur after 1937 can not impact the previous event that occurred in '37. In no way could the events of '38, '40, or '41 impact the events of '37. That's how time works. The events in '37 could of course impact later events.

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## Shinpachi (Nov 21, 2016)

Memos attached to the screening docs tell that, according to the international aviation rules, Japanese authorities should give her flight permission but, to do so, they need to be presented a certificate of air worthiness because there were not a few crash accidents by the record challengers at the time.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 21, 2016)

Very nice!

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## Robert Porter (Nov 21, 2016)

Great stuff *Shinpachi! *

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## Peter Gunn (Nov 21, 2016)

The whole "Death by the Japanese" just doesn't wash. I would think Japan (the people and government) would have been thrilled and honored that AE would have chosen to land in their country (re; the 1936 communique by Shinpachi). You can't look through the lens of WWII and let it cloud your judgement of the prewar era. I have always found the Japanese to be a warm, honest and civilized people with an enviable code of honor. Even in late 1941 there were many in the Japanese government still trying to find a peaceful solution to the tensions in the Pacific.

Agreed many of those tensions were brought on by their actions in China, but when AE was on her round the world flight, I can't see anything but them bending over backwards to help if asked.

I think the question I've always had was why she changed the flight plan from west to east. In 1936 she would have crossed the Pacific first when she and Noonan were fresh and just starting out. The navigation wouldn't have been to find a tricky little sand spit in the middle of the ocean. Perhaps one of you leaned gentlemen know more as to why she chose to head east in 1937 instead of west out of California as originally planned in 1936.

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## Peter Gunn (Nov 21, 2016)

Tom Maxwell said:


> Well obviously buffnut453 is looking at the timeline from some angle that is different than mine. Events that occur after 1937 can not impact the previous event that occurred in '37. In no way could the events of '38, '40, or '41 impact the events of '37. That's how time works. The events in '37 could of course impact later events.




No, I think what Buff is saying is that he is pointing out that relations between the U.S. and the Axis powers were still civilized enough even after AE disappeared to suggest that the Japanese murdering AE is ridiculous...patently.

Added to what FBJ said earlier regarding the timeline and where all your major players are and what they are doing also suggests that your theory needs some readjustment.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 21, 2016)

> The planning and training to attack the US took years starting in the* middle of 1937.* The IJA rampage in China that started in *late '37* forced the buildup as the pro-Axis forces in the IJA knew war with the US was inevitable. Tojo in China doing his dirt to the Chinese in 1937 doesn't mean he could not control the IJA in the mandated area.



"Could of, would of, should of." Tom, your own statements blow away your own theories. 

And again the fact that the closed manned Japanese garrison was 800 miles away from AE's LKP.

Tom - you're grasping at sporadic half facts. You can't have a viable conspiracy theory when places, people and historic time lines don't match.

I think Kelly Johnson designed the P-38 knowing that several years later it would be used for an aerial assassination.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 21, 2016)

Shinpachi said:


> Memos attached to the screening docs tell that, according to the international aviation rules, Japanese authorities should give her flight permission but, to do so, they need to be presented a certificate of air worthiness because there were not a few crash accidents by the record challengers at the time.


Just for the record, the certificate of airworthiness was issued by the US CAA and carried aboard the aircraft. During this period US civil aviation regulation was still in its infancy and there were many rouge operators who ignored CAA rules. Some states even tried to set up their own state aviation agencies.

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## Robert Porter (Nov 21, 2016)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I think Kelly Johnson designed the P-38 knowing that several years later it would be used for an aerial assassination.


Wow, had no idea Kelly Johnson had a crystal ball!


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 21, 2016)

Robert Porter said:


> Wow, had no idea Kelly Johnson had a crystal ball!



Him along with a bunch of rogue Japanese soldiers causing mayhem in the South Pacific during the summer of 1937!

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 21, 2016)

Again for the record;

Mili Atoll was the closest Japanese military base to Howland Island and AE LKP in 1937. During that time it had maybe 150 personnel on the island who operated a weather station and ADF facility. Mili is over 850 miles to the north east of Howland.

_"*Between the wars. *After the capitulation of the German Empire in 1918, the newly formed League of Nations gave all former German possessions north of the Equator for administration to the Japanese Empire. The Japanese established a centralised district administration in Jaluit,with the internal affairs of Mile left to be handled by a local atoll authorities. There is an unsubstantiated notion that the famous aviator, Amelia Earhart who disappeared on a trans-Pacific flight in 1937, crashed in Mile Lagoon.

*The Mile airbase. *In the late 1930s Japan began to fortify its Marshallese possessions contrary to the Convenant of the League of Nations. These fortifications were centered on Kwajalein, Maloelap and Wotje. Any development of Mile Atoll, however, was not part in the grand strategic scheme."_

WWII sites on Mili Atoll, Marshall Islands

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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2016)

Ok, let's consider Tom's point for a moment: Earhart was a Yankee spy and needed killing.

But then why wasn't Charles Lindbergh captured and killed when he was in Germany as late as 1939? He even met Hitler on several occasions, toured aircraft factories, met top Luftwaffe officials, etc. - this was two years after Earhart disappearance.

Japan also had a great chance to snuff Yankee spies cleverly disguised as baseball players when Babe Ruth, Jamie Foxx, Earl Averill, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer, Lefty Gomez, Connie Mack, Moe Berg and others visited Japan under the cover of a "Goodwill Tour" - why Japan let this golden opportunity get away from them, we'll never know...but perhaps they took out their frustrations on a solitary woman and her navigator to save face.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2016)

Peter Gunn said:


> No, I think what Buff is saying is that he is pointing out that relations between the U.S. and the Axis powers were still civilized enough even after AE disappeared to suggest that the Japanese murdering AE is ridiculous...patently.
> 
> Added to what FBJ said earlier regarding the timeline and where all your major players are and what they are doing also suggests that your theory needs some readjustment.



Yup...What he said.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2016)

Posted in error. Please ignore. 

Nothing to see here...move along!


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## Shinpachi (Nov 21, 2016)

Records are coming up one after another from the JACAR archives.

IJN had close and friendly ties with U.S. Navy in the search of Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan.
As of July 9, 1937, Japanese Consulate General Yoshimi Sato in New Orleans reports Tokyo with a local newspaper copy.
"American people are so grateful for our sincere cooperation with the search of Amelia Earhart and her crew like this Houston Post dated July 8 reports". Hard to read with noise. Sorry.

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## bobbysocks (Nov 21, 2016)

good find!

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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2016)

Something that some people may find interesting, is on 15 July, 1937, a psychic from Seattle Washington, Gene Dennis made the statement that her friend (Amelia) is "safe on a south sea island and will be rescued" she goes on to say "Fishing boats will find the flyers, possibly near the Gilbert Islands, near the end of the week."


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## stona (Nov 21, 2016)

Another 'psychic' that got it wrong 

No surprise there then!

Cheers

Steve


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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2016)

stona said:


> Another 'psychic' that got it wrong
> 
> No surprise there then!
> 
> ...


Well...the part I found particularly interesting, was the "safe on a south sea island" bit.

If we look at the Navy and Coast Guard's reaction, they assumed Amelia went down at sea and that the Lockheed would most likely remain afloat for some period of time. The Lexington and Battleship Colorado conducted their air searches in areas north of Howland Island - no one at the time thought to search to the south...


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## stona (Nov 21, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> Well...the part I found particularly interesting, was the "safe on a south sea island" bit.
> .



I'd say Gene was hedging her bets. There are about 20,000 south sea islands !

It's something psychics and other fraudsters do, emphasising the positives (gained by chance) and ignoring the negatives, which would statistically demonstrate their fraud.
Had Earhart been found on ANY south sea island, which might have been possible, then everyone would have remarked what a great psychic Gene was .
In a way she was unlucky !

Cheers

Steve

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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2016)

Ever notice how a "psychic" will usually ask you for your name when you first meet?

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 21, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, let's consider Tom's point for a moment: Earhart was a Yankee spy and needed killing....
> 
> Let me be clear- the Orona theory does not paint AE as a spy and the Japanese military did not execute her or mistreat her in any way. The theory speculates that AE spent five years on Roi-Namur under IJN protection and wasn't removed to Saipan until mid '42 after Midway when the influence of the IJN was in decline. The USMC veterans discovered the "quarters outfitted for a woman" and the diary labeled "10 year diary of Amelia Earhart" after the liberation of Roi-Namur.
> Very few Japanese defenders survived that battle.
> ...


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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2016)

Pro-Axis Pirates doesn't sink in because it's a ridiculous term.

And out of all of these conspiracy theories, no one has actualy come foreward and stated conclusively *WHY *Amelia would have been of such great interest to the Japanese government, other than some vague half-baked theories of her being a spy.

As for Marines finding quarters for a woman (or women) - there were Dutch and Australian army nurses captured during the war. There were Catholic Nuns interned during the war. There were foreign diplomats and their wives interned during the war. 

There has been mountains of speculation, assumptions and tall tales that all lead nowhere.

Meanwhile, on Gardner (Nikumaroro) Island, there is at least tangible evidence that provides a stronger case than all the conspiracies combined.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 21, 2016)

Theories, theories, theories...

*FACT - She was close to Howland Island - *This kills any possibility that she was up to 800 miles off course as some AE researchers claim.

FACT - The closest Japanese garrison was over 850 miles from her LKP (Mili Island)
FACT - The Japanese had no motives during 1937 to hold AE
FACT - With 4 to six hours (the latter is wishful thinking) of fuel on board she would have had to fly north east (almost opposite from her LKP to come within 200 miles of the only Japanese military garrison in that part of the Pacific.

Marines claim to have seen her dairy, some early newspaper reports stated she was picked up by a fishing boat, several witnesses on Saipan gave sketchy and conflicting reports about a white man and woman being executed, but yet not a shred of documented evidence ever emerged.

Again - if there were credible evidence that the Japanese held AE, the US military would have had the greatest propaganda tool of the war and would have exploited it to no end! 

BTW - The distance from Mili Islands to Saipan is 1871 miles - why take her there??


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## GrauGeist (Nov 22, 2016)

FLYBOYJ said:


> BTW - The distance from Mili Islands to Saipan is 1871 miles - why take her there??


Because that's where Elvis was busy burying crates full of Spitfires at the time?

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## Tom Maxwell (Nov 22, 2016)

The criticisms of the Orona theory posted on this thread are justified. It will take time for the idea to gather support. The Nikumaroro theory will be tested once again this coming mid-2017 and I can confidently predict that this test will also fail. I say so because the missing fliers were very capable people and would have left substantial evidence of their presence on Nikumaroro if the theory were correct. Investigators will turn to new avenues of research after 2017. The Orona theory may be among those chosen. Supported by the GE image and the relative ease of testing, the Orona theory may become more popular given the very expensive crash and sink search.

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## Peter Gunn (Nov 22, 2016)

Let me start by saying I think Tom has done a pretty good job presenting his ideas/theories and responding to posts. I love a good mystery and AE's disappearance captured my attention as a kid when I met Ann Pellegreno after her re-enactment of the round the world flight in 1967 (grew up very near her home town). Something that seems a bit forgotten by history, but such is life.

Anyway, Tom's theory has a lot of merit if you believe in large intricate conspiracies ( I don't ), but much like many other conspiracy theories, it doesn't stand up well to documented facts. I must admit though, even if I can't really see the outline of an Electra in the images of Orono lagoon, considering how shallow and accessible it is, I'd really like to see divers check it out. IF there is a plane there my money is on it being a B-25 but I'd be eager to know whatever it is down there ( if anything ).

So Tom, I've re-read your theory, I don't think it holds water, but you seem to be an intelligent and amiable fellow, I think if you found a more plausible theory you'd probably take it an run with it quite a way. I wish you luck in your endeavors and I hope you'll keep us posted on any developments that crop up.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 22, 2016)

Tom Maxwell said:


> The criticisms of the Orona theory posted on this thread are justified. It will take time for the idea to gather support. The Nikumaroro theory will be tested once again this coming mid-2017 and I can confidently predict that this test will also fail. I say so because the missing fliers were very capable people and would have left substantial evidence of their presence on Nikumaroro if the theory were correct. Investigators will turn to new avenues of research after 2017. The Orona theory may be among those chosen. Supported by the GE image and the relative ease of testing, the Orona theory may become more popular given the very expensive crash and sink search.



Tom - appreciate your discussions. On this forum you're dealing with a "tough crowd" (as Rodney Dangerfield used to say), a lot of knowledge and experience in aviation and history.

As far as "the missing fliers were very capable people," I take that with some skepticism. AE WAS NOT a super experienced pilot, (at least by today's standards) had maybe 1500 hours and crashed 6 planes (including her last flight). She also had an additional four incidents where she was forced to land an aircraft off field due to mechanical issues or damaged the aircraft on landing. Of course I will state that aircraft reliability and maintenance practices during that period were a shadow of what they are today.

IMO AE was a "celebrity pilot" who had people with deep pockets backing her. (the term today is "more money than brains) I remember reading somewhere that some of her colleagues worried about her staying current and proficient. 

This is a paragraph from Wiki taken from Fred Noonan's bio. IMO it provides some good technical explanations;
_
Many researchers including navigator and aeronautical engineer Elgen Long believe that the Electra ran out of fuel and that Earhart and Noonan ditched at sea. The "crash and sink" theory is often the most widely accepted explanation of Earhart’s and Noonan’s fate.

In her last message received at Howland Island, Earhart reported that they were flying a standard position line (or sun line), a routine procedure for an experienced navigator like Noonan. This line passed within sight of Gardner Island (now called Nikumaroro) in the Phoenix Island Group to the southeast, and there is a range of documented, archaeological, and anecdotal evidence supporting the hypothesis that Earhart and Noonan found Gardner Island, uninhabited at the time, landed the Electra on a flat reef near the wreck of a freighter, and sent sporadic radio messages from there. It has been surmised that Earhart and Noonan might have survived on Nikumaroro for several weeks before dying as castaways. In 1940, Gerald Gallagher, a British colonial officer and a licensed pilot, radioed his superiors to tell them that he believed he had found Earhart's skeleton, along with a sextant box, under a tree on the island's southeast corner. In a 1998 report to the American Anthropological Association, researchers, including a forensic anthropologist and an archaeologist, concluded, "What we can be certain of is that bones were found on the island in 1939–40, associated with what were observed to be women’s shoes and a navigator’s sextant box, and that the morphology of the recovered bones, insofar as we can tell by applying contemporary forensic methods to measurements taken at the time, appears consistent with a female of Earhart’s height and ethnic origin.

Contradictory research has recently been advanced; it is possible to set course for and see Gardner from a point on the over Howland sunline (passing seven miles east of), but one does not simply reach Gardner by following such line. A position line is part of a circle circumference and may be considered a straight line, only for limited distances. The Sun's azimuth change per hour is about 15 arcdegrees, whereas the Howland-to-Gardner flight (409 statue miles) would have taken 2 hours 55 minutes (at 140 mph). As a result the aircraft, when having followed the LOP by astronavigation, would have passed far northward of Gardner when reaching its meridian. The "Gardner" hypothesis originates from a 1980s book, where navigator Paul Rafford, Jr. "fell off his chair when seeing that the position line points in the direction of Gardner Island". Apart from such supposition, it was with the available fuel reserves (45 gallons) impossible to reach Gardner from the Howland region: the route would have taken 120 U.S. gallons at least.

The author of an article in Journal of Navigation, Vol. 9, No. 3, December 2011, avers that due to insufficient fuel reserves from 1912 GMT, no land other than Howland itself and Baker at 45 miles could be reached. With a maximum ferry range of 2,740 statute miles even the closest islands Winslow Reef and McKean Island at 210 and 350 miles away respectively, were unreachable._

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## Shinpachi (Nov 22, 2016)

On the way to war.

As of January 14, 1938, Japanese Consulate General in Sydney Torao Wakamatsu reports Tokyo.
" Requested by Your Excellency(Foreign Minister Kohki Hirota)'s mail dated last December 6, we made best efforts to obtain the original copy of Australian "Smith's Weekly" dated October 16 but were unable to obtain to send. Therefore, we enclose typed copies in duplicate herewith".

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## Shinpachi (Nov 22, 2016)

The same copy was sent to Colonel Masao Nishida in the navy by the ministry of foreign affairs on February 7, 1938.
He is famous as an active leader for Tripartite Pact.


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## Peter Gunn (Nov 22, 2016)

From the Wiki article:

_"In October 1937, Eric Bevington and Henry E. Maude visited Gardner with some potential settlers. A group walked all the way around the island, but did not find a plane or other evidence.[151]

In December 1938, laborers landed on the island and started constructing the settlement.[152] Around April 1940, a skull is discovered and buried, but British colonial officer Gerald Gallagher does not learn of it until September 1940.[153] In September 1940, Gallagher, a licensed pilot, instituted a search and then radioed his superiors that he had found a "skeleton... possibly that of a woman," along with an old-fashioned sextant box, under a tree on the island's southeast corner. He was ordered to send the remains to Fiji. Gallagher believed there was a small chance that the skeleton was Earhart's. In 1941, British colonial authorities took detailed measurements of the bones and concluded they were from a male about 5 ft 5 in tall (165 cm).[154] These bones were misplaced in Fiji long ago, so they cannot be reexamined.[155] In 1998, an analysis of the measurement data by forensic anthropologists did not confirm the original findings, concluding instead that the skeleton had belonged to a "tall white female of northern European ancestry."

During World War II, US Coast Guard LORAN Unit 92, a radio navigation station built in the summer and fall of 1944, and operational from mid-November 1944 until mid-May 1945, was located on Gardner Island's southeast end. Dozens of U.S. Coast Guard personnel were involved in its construction and operation, but were mostly forbidden from leaving the small base or having contact with the Gilbertese colonists then on the island, and found no artifacts known to relate to Earhart"
_
To me, that pretty much shoots the Gardner Island theory in the head. But combined with FBJ's post above, I don't see how the Electra could have made it to Orono either. Also, I've long held the opinion that she wasn't the most proficient pilot, as FBJ says, more of a celebrity pilot, even her buddy Paul Mantz said the crash in Honolulu on her first round the world attempt was due to pilot error. When thinking of a good female pilot my first thoughts always go to Jackie Cochran.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 22, 2016)

Peter Gunn said:


> When thinking of a good female pilot my first thoughts always go to Jackie Cochran.



Or Amy Johnson.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 22, 2016)

Peter Gunn said:


> From the Wiki article:
> 
> _"In October 1937, Eric Bevington and Henry E. Maude visited Gardner with some potential settlers. A group walked all the way around the island, but did not find a plane or other evidence.[151]
> 
> ...


How does that kill the Gardner theory?

They did conclude in 1998, that the skeletal remains were a female of European ancestry. Add to that, the artifacts that were found, dating before the colonists (1938) and later than the shipwreck (1929). Of these artifacts found were a broken jar of freckle ointment, which was a unique shaped trademark design of Dr. C.H. Berry Company. They found fragments of a glass bottle that has been identified as being manufactured by Owens-Corning, New Jersey plant in 1933 for the Compana Corporation, used for their Italian Balm skin softener product line.

They have also found aircraft grade aluminum pieces as well as clearly identifiable aircraft parts, none of which would be found on a ship AND no other known aircraft wrecks are known to have occurred on Gardner before or during WWII.

They say that the "expedition" that landed in 1937 "walked around" the island, but I might make a few observations about this: First, they weren't looking for Earhart. AT that point in time, the assumption had been made that she was lost to sea, most likely to the north-east or north-west of Howland. Secondly, they were scouting for a place on the island for a suitable location for building, not looking for any signs of castaways - this was a deserted island with the last known human presence (although temporary) being 1929 - so a small campsite in a remote area could have easily been overlooked, especially if it had been made in a sheltered spot away from the elements. Otherwise, they would have found a corpse, not a skeleton, as was found a few years later.

The location they selected for the "village" was just south of the SS Norwich wreck, on the west coast, which is a broad area, unlike the far south-eastern area of the island, which is very narrow and unsuitable for any sort of building - which happens to be where the campsite and human remains were found.

Add to this, that all of the aircraft debris (aluminum, plexiglass, etc.) has been found on the western shore, in the area directly around the reef where the SS Norwich is located (and the anomaly in the 1937 photograph was sighted) and no where else on the island. All of the bottles, sextant case, shoes, animal bones and skeleton were found on the south-eastern shore at the campsite.

So as far as I can see...there is a fair amount of evidence that an aircraft did put down there and that someone was castaway. If it's not Earhart, then who was it?


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## GrauGeist (Nov 22, 2016)

By the way, that was a good post about the search, Shinpachi. 

The Allies did use the opportunity to find Earhart as a reason to "look" near Japanese held islands.

Like I've said in the past, the Japanese weren't stupid. They could have accomplished huge propaganda by returning Amelia safe to the U.S. AND stopped the "searching" of their island locations immediately by doing so...

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## Shinpachi (Nov 22, 2016)

Agreed, Dave.

IJN also used the chance to investigate the U.S. Navy operation system and sent dozens of reports back to homeland.
I have no guts to translate them all but these docs show Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan were not captured by Japanese.

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## fnqvmuch (Nov 22, 2016)

Great, Shinpachi - It is very interesting for the big picture of geopolitics and I'ld never have found it ; Smith's Weekly was not really 'mainstream' press ( provocative and disrespectful, best cartoons though ). O>T> but there is reference to a '... Japanese naval base and arsenal at Borrin ...
opposite the British Singapore ...' can anyone give me a clue as to name now? thanks, Steven

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## Shinpachi (Nov 22, 2016)

Thanks for your information about Smith's Weekly, fnqvmuch.
Japanese government had known the article through a news in London on December 3, 1937 when British magazine "Cavalcade" quoted it.


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## fnqvmuch (Nov 22, 2016)

Yampi Sound was probably of interest to the pearling trade; Thursday Island on the east had had a large Japanese
element due to it but the modern industry is all north-west coast

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## Shinpachi (Nov 23, 2016)

Thanks, fnqvmuch.


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## Shinpachi (Nov 23, 2016)

Intercept information of the U.S. domestic radio broadcasting (middle-wave)

Is Woman Flyer in Japanese Prison ?( Sacramento 20:00 April 13, 1943)
.. Husband of prominent woman flyer Amelia Earhart, Hutchinson, says it is ridiculous to believe Ms Earhart is currently a prisoner of Japanese military ..

*********************
I have no idea who Hutchinson is.

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## bobbysocks (Nov 23, 2016)

i just caught the last couple minutes of a travel chanel show called expedition unknown. tonights show was about AE...and the host of the show found bones under a house in Fiji he is pretty certain are hers....but he couldnt stick around for the DNA tests.


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## GrauGeist (Nov 24, 2016)

bobbysocks said:


> i just caught the last couple minutes of a travel chanel show called expedition unknown. tonights show was about AE...and the host of the show found bones under a house in Fiji he is pretty certain are hers....but he couldnt stick around for the DNA tests.


lmao..now she's in Fiji??

Maybe they should check Antarctica too, just in case!

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 24, 2016)

Actually the bones were from Gardner, brought there and then lost


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## GrauGeist (Nov 24, 2016)

Ahh yes, you're right, Joe!

The British that found the remains took them there and they became lost. With all these sightings and speculations, I completely forgot.

But I still think they should look near the secret Nazi airbase in Antarctica...just in case!

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## Airframes (Nov 24, 2016)

Nah, they should look in one of the crates containing a Spitfire, which is now on a train in a tunnel somewhere ...................

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## Peter Gunn (Nov 29, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> How does that kill the Gardner theory?
> 
> They did conclude in 1998, that the skeletal remains were a female of European ancestry. Add to that, the artifacts that were found, dating before the colonists (1938) and later than the shipwreck (1929). Of these artifacts found were a broken jar of freckle ointment, which was a unique shaped trademark design of Dr. C.H. Berry Company. They found fragments of a glass bottle that has been identified as being manufactured by Owens-Corning, New Jersey plant in 1933 for the Compana Corporation, used for their Italian Balm skin softener product line.
> 
> ...



Listen you big meanie, don't make me come out there... 

Seriously though, points well taken, and I can agree to a certain extent but ( there's always a but, or a butt... ), in reference to FBJ's post 224 re: the navigation/range issue, then the prospective colonists walking the island, plus during WWII there were actual inhabitants there ( granted they may have been restricted on where they could go ), I just don't really see it. I'm lukewarm on the Gardner Island theory at best but I won't say positively "No" on it just yet. The circumstantial evidence is tantalizing I agree, sort of adds to the whole mystery because we can't get a definitive piece of data to prove it's her electra, or her freckle cream jar, or her shoe etc.

Believe me, I'd be the first to admit I'm wrong if they find that one shred of evidence to prove that's where AE and FN met their end.

Cheers.

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## Robert Porter (Nov 29, 2016)

I wish you guys would stop talking about the secret Antarctic base, thats where I keep most of my stash and if enough people go poking around down there my wife might find out.

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## fubar57 (Dec 13, 2016)

Just keeping this alive............

The Controversial Army Veteran Who's Spent Decades Not Finding Amelia Earhart

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## vikingBerserker (Dec 13, 2016)

Oey................


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## Robert Porter (Dec 13, 2016)

fubar57 said:


> Just keeping this alive............
> 
> The Controversial Army Veteran Who's Spent Decades Not Finding Amelia Earhart


Great article, kind of sums up the 3 main theories as well as paints a rather um unflattering picture of Mellon who I honestly think may have lost it awhile back.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 13, 2016)

Good article and it even makes an excellent point with Dorothy Cochrane's comment:,
“This is the greatest mystery of the 20th century. *A legitimate excellent pilot*, hero, role model, one of the celebrities of the century."
While Earhart may have been many things, she was NOT an excellent pilot.

And even if she were, how many famous pilots throughout history have come to an untimely end through pilot or mechanical error?

Just because one is a legend does not make one infallible.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 13, 2016)

It's a thin line between being famous and being infamous!


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## Robert Porter (Dec 13, 2016)

Agreed, all I have read suggests she was actually rather inept as a pilot. Many hard landings, several navigational errors of note and so forth. She is indeed famous, but fame does not confer ability. Still it would be lovely to know exactly how she met her end. I can't believe it was at the hands of the Japanese, but my current favorite of the theories is the castaway one.

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## JimX (Dec 17, 2016)

I would suggest you go to this site .......... www.irene-amelia.com


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## GrauGeist (Dec 17, 2016)

JimX said:


> I would suggest you go to this site .......... www.irene-amelia.com


I'm actually surprised that there isn't any links to Chemtrail or Illuminatti sites on that "interesting" page...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 17, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm actually surprised that there isn't any links to Chemtrail or Illuminatti sites on that "interesting" page...



I fly chemtrail spreading aircraft for mind control purposes for my masonic lodge. 

You just read this on the internet, so it's true...

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## Robert Porter (Dec 17, 2016)

JimX said:


> I would suggest you go to this site .......... www.irene-amelia.com


Wow, ah no, the "facts" as discussed on that site have been almost all officially debunked, the rest are obviously false on their face. Sorry, the cool thing about the web is anyone can post anything. That bad side of the web is that anyone can post anything. I found this out myself recently after quoting "facts" from another site that turned out to be rather less than truthful.


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## Robert Porter (Dec 17, 2016)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm actually surprised that there isn't any links to Chemtrail or Illuminatti sites on that "interesting" page...


Dang it! I was just about to post my links to the Chemtrail expose I found. Has pictures of mysterious cylinders connected to jet engines and everything!!! Now you robbed my thunder.

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 18, 2016)

JimX said:


> I would suggest you go to this site .......... www.irene-amelia.com


Oh for gods sake......!!!!

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## bobbysocks (Dec 18, 2016)

with all the hours of flight time that she had she should have been a top notch pilot! she used to race. I would think if she was that bad of a pilot she would have bought the farm doing this...


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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 18, 2016)

bobbysocks said:


> with all the hours of flight time that she had she should have been a top notch pilot! *she used to race*. I would think if she was that bad of a pilot she would have bought the farm doing this...



Depends what kind of racing. I think most of here racing was cross country racing, I don't know if she ever did any pylon stuff - a lot more difficult.

The ground loop in Hawaii was a rookie mistake IMO. Although the aircraft was heavily loaded and the runway was wet (it rained the night prior) the winds were almost calm.

Here's a clip about the Hawaii ground loop, I couldn't find a Model 10 POH so I wonder about her reasoning for using asymmetric control during take off.

20 March 1937 - This Day in Aviation


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## Robert Porter (Dec 18, 2016)

She raced for transcontinental races including the so called 'Powder Puff Derby' specifically for women pilots. But as far as I can tell she had no pylon racing or even short haul distance racing. And honestly as far as I can tell she only raced a few times. She did set a women's time to altitude and highest altitude for a women records. And of course her transatlantic crossing as the first woman solo pilot etc. 

Anecdotal evidence including the famous ground loop in Hawaii would indicate that she was not a terribly great pilot. Rather her fame revolved around her sex in a male dominated field and at a time in history when woman were making significant strides in their struggle for equality etc. 

I certainly admire her tenacity and ability to do the things she did, but I think even she would disagree with being placed on any kind of pedestal for her skills alone. Interestingly she initially decided she was not the person to do the transatlantic solo as a woman and suggested several other 'more skilled' female pilots. She offered to help sponsor it, but it took some convincing for her to actually make the attempt herself.

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## bobbysocks (Dec 18, 2016)

a lot of the pilots I know that have some sort of incident made bone headed mistakes that 99.99% of the time they wouldn't have. brain farts, distractions, showing off, getting sidetracked from your normal routine all can have bad results and lead to an "Oh $#!T!!" moment. I am not saying she was top notch but that stupid crap happens to even the best of them.

it would be interesting to see how other women pilots like pancho barnes rated her flying.

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## fubar57 (Dec 22, 2016)

JimX said:


> I would suggest you go to this site .......... www.irene-amelia.com

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## vikingBerserker (Dec 22, 2016)

You sir get bacon!

+6 points for using Opus.

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## Robert Porter (Dec 22, 2016)

Opus is as they say 'da bomb' always loved that strip!

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## Old Wizard (Apr 4, 2017)

The latest news.
The Castaway of Gardner Island

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## Airframes (Apr 4, 2017)

Just read it all the way through, nd then realised this was written in 1997 !!!

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## Robert Porter (Apr 4, 2017)

Yep, old new news! Ha say that 5 times quickly!


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## Peter Gunn (Apr 5, 2017)

Just thought I'd keep this thread alive, much like the ridiculous theories surrounding AE's disappearance.


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## Robert Porter (Apr 5, 2017)

Based on the title of the thread, not much worry about finding her but everyone seems to want the damn plane. Pretty sure she had not paid it off and Ford Motor Credit wants their plane back.

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## Peter Gunn (Apr 5, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Based on the title of the thread, not much worry about finding her but everyone seems to want the damn plane. Pretty sure she had not paid it off and Ford Motor Credit wants their plane back.



Could be, or the Puppeteers want their General Products built fuselage returned...

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## Robert Porter (Apr 5, 2017)

Oooo! Ringworld! Hah! Knew I liked you for a reason!

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## Peter Gunn (Apr 5, 2017)

Ringworld = Great Reading.

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## mikewint (Jul 5, 2017)

The History Channel July 9th

Les Kinney, a retired government investigator who has spent 15 years looking for Earhart clues, said the photo, taken by someone believed to be spying on the Japanese military for the U.S., "clearly indicates that Earhart was captured by the Japanese." The photo was discovered in what was once a top secret file in the National Archives. Independent analysts have told History the photo appears to be legitimate.

The photo, marked "Jaluit Atoll" and believed to have been taken in 1937, shows a short-haired woman -- potentially Earhart -- on a dock with her back to the camera. (She's wearing pants, something for which Earhart was known.) She sits near a standing man who looks like Noonan.

The Japanese ship, the Koshu, was photographed towing something that appears to be a plane that has the same measurements as Earhart's. NBC's "Today" show reported that locals at the time said that they saw the plane crash and that the Koshu picked up both the flyers and the plane.

The photo would confirm a popular theory stating Earhart and Noonan survived the crash and were held prisoner by the Japanese on the island of Saipan, where they both eventually died.

Japan's Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry and National Archives told NBC News they have no documents of Earhart being in their custody. However, many records from that time were destroyed during or after World War II.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

The Koshu was in service of Korea-Japan route as a cargo ship from November 1932 to March 1944.
Sunken by the U.S. air attack as an IJN requisition ship in the East China Sea on March 24, 1945.


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## mikewint (Jul 5, 2017)

Through Vincent V. Loomis 1981 research in Tokyo, which was later supported by Fukiko Aoki, we know that the Japanese survey ship Koshu, which wasn’t a part of the 12th Squadron, was anchored in Ponape on July 2, 1937, and at 5 p.m., July 6, Lieutenant Yukinao Kozu, the ship’s radioman, logged the official order for the ship to depart Ponape for the Marshalls to join the Earhart search. Koshu was steaming for Jaluit on July 9, arriving there just after noon July 13. “That night she took on coal,” Loomis wrote. “One of those loading the fuel was Tomaki Mayazo, who heard the crew members excitedly mention they were on the way to pick up two American fliers and their aircraft, which had crashed at Mili. The next day the ship steamed out of Jaluit for Mili Mili, where it picked up both the Electra and its crew.”
The photo, which Kinney believes must have been taken before 1943, shows a ship towing a barge with an airplane on the back with several people on a nearby dock. Two independent analyses by Doug Carner and Kent Gibson said the photo appears to be legitimate, according to People. Carner determined it had not been altered, and Gibson, who specializes in facial recognition, said it’s likely the individuals are Earhart and Noonan. They both recognized the ship in the photo as Koshu Maru, a Japanese military vessel said to have captured the duo after their crash.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

Research facts by yourself and say with your own words, Mike.
The Koshu (杭州丸 Koshu Maru) was a civilian cargo ship until March 1944.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

Who is Fukiko Aoki, by the way ?
Fukiko Aoki I knew was a left-wing journalist and a daughter of communist.


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## mikewint (Jul 5, 2017)

Shinpachi, various sources various spellings, various descriptions depending on whose book you are reading:
In “East to the Dawn” by Susan Butler, she tells of a Japanese journalist named Fukiko Aoki (she later became bureau chief for the Japanese version of Newsweek) who, in 1981, wanted to find out about the rumors that said Amelia Earhart had been executed in Saipan.
In her search, she interviewed Kozu Yukinao who had served as communications officer on the ship Koshu, which is believed to have been involved in finding Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan. She also saw copies of the log for that ship. She made notes of the dates and places where the ship had been.
She stated that the Koshu received orders to help in the search for the missing plane.

The Japanese navy’s 2,080-ton survey ship Koshu almost certainly picked up Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan from their landfall near Mili’s Barre Island, took the pair to Jaluit, where Bilimon Amaron tended to Noonan’s wounded knee, and carried the Earhart Electra to Saipan, where it was discovered by American forces in June 1944.

For his book_Amelia Earhart : The Final Story,_ Vince Loomis went to considerable efforts to dig out the records of what Japanese ships were in the Marshalls in July 1937. He was trying to figure our what ship his star witness, Bilimon Amaron, had seen carrying the Earhart Electra on its aft deck. The only ship Loomis could come up with anywhere near the Marshalls was the seaplane tender_Koshu_. She was in Ponape, about 400 miles west of the Marshalls, on July 2, 1937 and arrived in Jaluit in the Marshalls on July 13. Loomis says _Koshu_ then left Jaluit but returned sometime before July 19 when she sailed for Truk and eventually Saipan. It is between its departure from and return from Jaluit that he says the ship picked up Earhart, Noonan and the plane at Mili Atoll in the southern Marshalls.

The _Koshu_ was doing oceanographic surveys, and based upon their reports, one can deduce from their speed and departure date to have arrived in the Marshalls (Jaluit) no earlier than July 9th. Official correspondence between the US Navy and State Dept. and Japanese officials at that time acknowledge only the_Koshu_ in assisting in the survey for AE wreckage.

The Honolulu Star Bulletin has an AP release dated 6 Jul 37 from New York; in sum, Japanese officials report that the " 2100 ton survey ship _Kooshu_" is searching in the Marshall Islands. In the main article the spelling is "Koshu", so probably an extra "o" typo. Also the Japanese were searching in "other areas near Howland".

This is probably independent corroboration of the _Koshu_'s status. Fukiko Aoki, Japanese author, writes in_Searching for Amelia Earhart _in 1984 that there were two Japanese ships in the area. The "battleship _Koshu_" and the carrier _Kamoi_. According to her, she reviewed the logs of the _Koshu _which reflect the dates and places reported. The _Koshu _left Jaluit on 19 Jul 37 headed to Saipan.

From: U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Pearl Harbor Attack Hearings; Pt. 35, the Clausen Investigation, pp. 52-62.
Fourth Fleet: Survey and Patrol Division: Koshu




*The Japanese navy’s 2,080-ton survey ship Koshu almost certainly picked up Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan from their landfall near Mili’s Barre Island, took the pair to Jaluit, where Bilimon Amaron tended to Noonan’s wounded knee, and carried the Earhart Electra to Saipan, where it was discovered by American forces in June 1944.*
*




Japanese journalist Fukiko Aoki, wife of American writer Pete Hamill. Aoki told Fred Goerner she wanted to help him in his Earhart investigations in the early 1980s*


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

I might not be interested in the Earhart mystery so much as you are, Mike, but -

Does this ship look the Koshu ?





This is the Koshu and she was not in the Pacific in 1937.





Also, can anyone find out Earhart and Noonan in this picture ?
I can't tell even who are Europeans or Asians exactly.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

Yes, she is Fukiko Aoki I knew.
She was a left-wing activist.


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## mikewint (Jul 5, 2017)

Shinpachi, At this point it is certainly a very intriguing possibility. As to the ship, they look the same to me and other who know more than I ever will have determined that it is the Koshu. The theory that the Japanese military could be responsible for the disappearance of the two aviators – who they “may have believed were American spies,” has been floating around for decades.

But it’s the discovery of a black-and-white photograph – unearthed by retired U.S. Treasury Agent Les Kinney in 2012 and revealed for the first time in the documentary – that suddenly makes the theory more plausible, adds the former FBI boss. A longtime Earhart buff who has spent thousands of hours combing through government records, Kinney discovered the photo in a “formerly top secret” file in the National Archives.
“It was misfiled,” he tells Henry in the documentary, referring to the photo which depicts two blurry images on a dock believed to be Noonan and Earhart – who stares out at a nearby ship with her back turned to the camera. “That’s the only reason I was able to find it.”

By the time Earhart embarked on her around-the-world flight, the Japanese controlled many of the islands in the South Pacific that she and Noonan were flying on this final leg of their adventure.


Kinney insists that any document that directly refers to Earhart as a Japanese prisoner was long ago “purged” from official files to hide the fact that the government knew Earhart was a prisoner and did nothing about it, including one report that totaled more than 130 pages.
Kinney’s undated photograph came from an Office Of Naval Intelligence file, he says, and was meticulously examined and evaluated by two of the nation’s top forensic photo analysts, using extensive recognition and proportional comparison technology.

“I can say with more than 99.7 percent confidence that the photo is authentic and untouched,” explains digital forensic analyst Doug Carner.

Facial recognition expert Kent Gibson, who compared known images of Noonan and Earhart with the individuals photographed on the dock, believes it’s “likely” they are the two lost aviators. The recognition software matched Noonan’s “Widow’s Peak” hair line, prominent nose, and eye brow ridge almost perfectly

“There’s nothing that points me in another direction,” says Gibson, who adds that the figure believed to be Earhart has the “same prominent, athletic shoulders as Amelia” and the same “short, bobbed hair and is wearing pants, unusual for women at that time”

After her disappearance, the government launched what at the time became the largest ever sea and air search. American vessels, however, weren’t allowed into the Japanese-controlled Marshall Islands.

No trace of the flyers or their plane was ever found.

Days after their alleged crash landing, Henry believes Earhart and Noonan, along with their plane, were picked up by the Japanese military and taken roughly 200 miles to Jaluit Island, where Kinney’s photograph — which contains the caption: “MARSHALL ISLANDS, JALUIT ATOLL, JALUIT ISLAND. JALUIT HARBOR.” — was later snapped on the dock.

*Forensic analyst Carner identified the ship that the individual presumed to be Earhart appears to be staring at as the Koshu Maru, a Japanese cargo ship.
*
Behind the ship on a barge is an object resembling an airplane that Gibson calculated to be 38 feet long. Records show that Earhart’s Lockheed Electra measured 38.7 feet long.

The Koshu Maru is believed to have transported the flyers nearly 2,000 miles to the island of Saipan.
It is not clear why the U.S. government might want to cover up what happened to Amelia,” he says.

“If in fact she was spying on the Japanese, the government may not have wanted the American public to know they put ‘America’s sweetheart’ in that situation and she was captured.”


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## Shinpachi (Jul 5, 2017)

Amazing story like the Nazi base on the moon, Mike !


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## Robert Porter (Jul 5, 2017)

Dang it! That's twice someone on this forum blabbed about my secret hiding place for my 1:1 stash! Now I am going to have to make room next to the Grail Cup!

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## buffnut453 (Jul 5, 2017)

The 3 photographs on p.14 of this thread (posts #276 and #277) appear to be of 3 different vessels. The images posted by Mike showing what is alleged to be Earhart show a vessel with 2 masts, but the rear mast is close to the main superstructure. By comparison, Shinpachi's photo shows a vessel with the rear mast well aft of the superstructure. Now to the other pic allegedly of Koshu Maru at Post #276 which shows a vessel where the sides of the hull curve down from the superstructure to the lower deck whereas the "Earhart" photo is squared-off in the same area. Also, #276 has a flag staff at the front of the poop deck while on the "Earhart" photo the flag staff at the aft end of the poop deck.

If the scans are at all representative of the quality of the original image, then you'd have a really, REALLY hard time confirming that the person identified as Earhart is (a) female or (b) Caucasian. Also, if the image analyst confirmed body proportions of both Earhart and Noonan, where's Noonan on the photo?

The "aircraft" could equally be a vessel behind the "Koshu Maru" or any number of other items. 

Sorry but my 20 years as an image analyst raises a whole heap of questions about these images that just don't jive. It truly feels like people are situating the appreciation here and seeing what they want to see.

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## mikewint (Jul 6, 2017)

Buff, If you look at my original post #271, Noonan is the first red arrow to the far left. Facial recognition gave a very close match as you can see at least some of his face, i.e. the "Widows Peak" hair line, prominent nose, eye brow ridge, etc. In addition they did an overlay of his photo onto the dock photo and the match was very very close. There is less visible of the "Earhart" figure so the match is by body -type which is much less definitive.
So until DNA and or aircraft parts with serial numbers are found it all remains speculative though along with all of the "witness" testimony, IMHO, closer to possible than not.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2017)

I can't think of a facial recognition algorithm out there that could make a positive ID of Noonan from that photo. You can't even see the entire face while the nose is very indistinct. It's even hard to tell which direction the face is pointing. If it's pointing towards the camera, then the so-called widow's peak is on the wrong side of his head and the hairstyle is wrong. People are definitely seeing what they want to see here and not looking objectively at the image.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 6, 2017)

Sorry Mike - this is another conspiracy theory that is grasping at straws. I've seen grassy knoll photos clearer than those.

Again some inconvenient points.

1. The largest Japanese garrison was hundreds of miles away from where they went missing.
2. During this period, relations between Japan and the US were good.
3. There is no plausible reason why the Japanese would imprison these two people. 
4. Sketchy witness testimony.
5. The item on the barge could be anything.

But agree with your statement "until DNA and or aircraft parts with serial numbers are found it all remains speculative."

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2017)

Here's a less contrasty version of the image courtesy of the Daily Mail:






This clearly shows that "Noonan" is facing the camera and the widow's peak is on the right side of his head, whereas the photo Mikewint posted of Noonan shows the parting was on the left of his scalp. 

Also, look at the position of the mast on the "Koshu Maru" which doesn't match the photo Shinpachi posted. The so-called aircraft wreckage could easily be a vessel similar to the ones we're seeing in the left foreground, just partially obscured by the main ship and other dark stuff that, frankly, can't be positively identified. If, as the "experts contest, the aircraft wreckage is being towed on a barge, where did the barge come from? If Noonan and Earhart crashed onto a deserted island, did Koshu Maru just happen to have a barge tagging along for the ride? Or was the wreckage transferred to the barge at Jaluit...which, given this photo, would have been more readily identified by SOMEONE. 

Finally, we have to ask why Earhart and Noonan would be allowed off the Koshu Maru if the Japanese were holding Noonan and Earhart as bargaining chips? Bear in mind this is 1937, some 4 years before Pearl Harbor and well before tensions between the US and Japan escalated. What would be the purpose of Japan holding onto the 2 pilots and not telling anyone? Surely it would be in their best interest to show what good global citizens they were being? 

Sorry to be a nattering naybob of negativism but this whole conspiracy theory just doesn't add up for me.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2017)

According to the Daily Mail (yeah, I know...hardly the most reputable of news sources but still better than National Enquirer), the photo actually comes from a series of pics taken in 1940 and not in 1937 as initially claimed.

Here's the article for those who want to peruse:

Photo 'showing Amelia Earhart' is not the US aviator | Daily Mail Online

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## CATCH 22 (Jul 6, 2017)

buffnut453 said:


> This clearly shows that "Noonan" is facing the camera and the widow's peak is on the right side of his head, whereas the photo Mikewint posted of Noonan shows the parting was on the left of his scalp.


Buffnut, "widow's peak" is the hair triangle in the middle, not the bald area! My "widow's peak" e.g. is ca. 20% of Noonan's.
But for what you say, in his photos one can see bald areas on both sides of his forehead.




BTW one don't need to be bald to have a "widow's peak".


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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2017)

Fair enough...but the photo could simply be showing a male with a parting on the right side of his head. We can't see the entire head so there's a lot of speculating going on here.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 6, 2017)

Mike told me Fukiko Aoki is a wife of American writer Pete Hamill.
This is his testimony about his New York Post days.

Paul Sann, Pete Hamill's mentor in New York Post, gave him a motto a journalist could live by in 1960.
"If you've got the story, tell it. If you don't have the story, write it."

Data source: AT HOME WITH: Pete Hamill; On Background

This would be a real nature of journalism.

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## CATCH 22 (Jul 6, 2017)

buffnut453 said:


> Fair enough...but the photo could simply be showing a male with a parting on the right side of his head. We can't see the entire head so there's a lot of speculating going on here.


Could be anybody - I'm not saying at all this is Noonan. Lookalikes in old photos are very common. Especially if one's looking for them.

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## mikewint (Jul 6, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> 2. During this period, relations between Japan and the US were good.


First to Buff:
wid·ow's peak noun
a V-shaped growth of hair toward the center of the forehead, especially one left by a *receding hairline in a man.
*
Joe, U.S. / Japanese relations began to sour beginning in 1915, when Japan issued its so-called "Twenty-One Demands" on China. These demands, presented as an ultimatum to the Chinese government, would have amounted to giving Japan a privileged status in certain parts of the country. This was in direct conflict with the stated policy of the United States toward China—the famous "Open Door," in which all countries were to respect Chinese sovereignty and enjoy equal access to Chinese trade.

The second blow was the economic problems of Japan in the late 1920s, made worse by the Great Depression which swept the industrialized world in the early 1930s. As an island country with few natural resources, Japan was dependent on international trade, which was disrupted by the economic crisis. Moreover, Japan was overpopulated, but other countries—most importantly the United States—closed the door to Japanese emigrants. Increasingly Japan's military leaders became convinced that only through domination of China could they solve their country's problems

Blow three came when on 18 September 1931, when Lt. Suemori Kawamoto detonated a small quantity of dynamite close to a railway line owned by Japan's South Manchuria Railway near Shenyang. The explosion was so weak that it failed to destroy the track and a train passed over it minutes later, but the Imperial Japanese Army accused Chinese dissidents of the act and responded with an attack on the Chinese garrison and occupation of the town. The League of Nations, at China’s request, immediately ordered the Japanese army to withdraw. Japan’s delegates at the League’s headquarters in Geneva, agreed to this demand and blamed the event on army “hot-heads”.
The Japanese government in Tokyo also agreed to this demand. However, the army did not listen and it launched a full-scale invasion of Manchuria and by the end of 1931, it had occupied the whole of the province. The civilian government had clearly lost control of the army, and the League’s position was that it would deal with the government of the aggressor nation. But the Japanese civilian government had no control over the army which was in charge of the invasion.

At the outset, U.S. officials viewed developments in China with ambivalence. On the one hand, they opposed Japanese incursions into northeast China and the rise of Japanese militarism in the area, in part because of their sense of a longstanding friendship with China. On the other hand, most U.S. officials believed that it had no vital interests in China worth going to war over with Japan. Moreover, the domestic conflict between Chinese Nationalists and Communists left U.S. policymakers uncertain of success in aiding such an internally divided nation. As a result, few U.S. officials recommended taking a strong stance prior to 1937, and so the United States did little to help China for *fear of provoking Japan*.

P*ause here to note that Earhart left New Guinea On the morning of 2 July 1937. Twenty hours later (still 2 July as she had crossed the Dateline) she was missing*

Blow four: U.S. likelihood of providing aid to China increased after July 7, 1937, when Chinese and Japanese forces clashed on the Marco Polo Bridge near Beijing, throwing the two nations into a full-scale war. As the United States watched Japanese forces sweep down the coast and then into the capital of Nanjing, popular opinion swung firmly in favor of the Chinese. Tensions with Japan rose when on 12 December 1937, the Japanese Army bombed the U.S.S. Panay as it evacuated American citizens from Nanjing, killing three. The U.S. Government, however, *continued to avoid conflict* and accepted an apology and indemnity from the Japanese. An uneasy truce held between the two nations and the United States adopted a policy of a refusing to recognize Japanese conquests, limited economic sanctions against Japan, and equally limited military and economic assistance for China.
Nevertheless, the Japanese bitterly resented even these halfway measures, and when their war against China bogged down in 1939 they blamed outside interference for the stubborn refusal of the Chinese to submit to their terms. They sought a way to prevent foreign aid from reaching China, and to replace the foreign resources that they could no longer acquire due to American economic sanctions.

After concluding an alliance with Germany in July 1940, Japan pressured the French government into allowing Japanese troops to occupy the northern part of French Indochina. In the following year Japanese forces occupied the entire country.

The final Blow: The U.S. government met this latest series of aggressive moves with a steadily escalating campaign of economic sanctions, so that by late summer of 1941 Japan was no longer able to purchase any materials from the United States. This was a tremendous blow for many reasons, but particularly because Japan was almost completely dependent upon U.S. imports for its supply of oil. The U.S. was strangling Japanese industry and its war machine, a humiliation that no Japanese leader would accept.

As early as 1927, war games at the Japanese Navy War College included an examination of a carrier raid against Pearl Harbor. The following year, a certain Captain Yamamoto lectured on the same topic. By the time the United States moved the Pacific Fleet from the West Coast to Pearl Harbor in May 1940, Yamamoto was already exploring how to execute such a bold operation. According to the chief of staff of the Combined Fleet, Vice Admiral Fukudome Shigeru, Yamamoto first discussed an attack on Pearl Harbor in March or April 1940. After the completion of the Combined Fleet’s annual maneuvers in the fall of 1940, Yamamoto told Fukudome to direct Rear Admiral Onishi Takijiro to study a Pearl Harbor attack under the utmost secrecy.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2017)

None of that explains why Japan would imprison Earhart and Noonan in 1937. As Joe pointed out, the nearest Japanese military installations were over 400 miles away so the claim that Earhart and Noonan were conducting espionage is fanciful at best. If they were doing espionage, it was at an incredibly low level that could have been done by any member of any ship's crew anywhere in the world. The US didn't start imposing sanctions on Japan until 1938 thus, despite the deterioration in relations, things still hadn't progressed to concrete action by either side at the time Earhart and Noonan disappeared. So why would the Japanese abscond with two world-renowned aviators in 1937? What's the justification?

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## Airframes (Jul 6, 2017)

It's all b*ll*cks -- the photo shows Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers, in between takes for one of the 'road' movies, on the back lot somewhere in 'dream land' ..... .....

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 6, 2017)

*"Tensions with Japan rose when on 12 December 1937, the Japanese Army bombed the U.S.S. Panay as it evacuated American citizens from Nanjing,"
*
That's the time everything started going south. Yes, there were times of tensions but this incident occured months after Earhart's disappearance - I mention this several pages ago.

Japan had no strategic interest in this part of the world during this time. Had Earhart disappeared over occupied China, the hostage theory would be more plausible. Sorry, this doesn't add up and i think its a case of conspiracy theorists trying to piecemeal evidence to support their argument.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 6, 2017)

Lets not forget, cargo ships from the US arrived in port in Japan as late as December 9th, 1941. They were a trading partner literally up until the attack on Dec 7. There was a real feeling that continued engagement with the government of Japan and stern warnings and trade tactics would help the civilian government to eventually regain control of the Army. Nothing I am aware of in the lead up to the war would have benefitted Japan if they took Earhart hostage. In fact in any scenario that makes sense if they actually did do that they would likely have had a show trial and shown whatever evidence they felt supported their case for Earhart being a spy. No scenario to capture them in secret makes sense.

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## Graeme (Jul 6, 2017)

To my eyes it looks like a jet aircraft in the background?
Time travel.....

The Final Countdown (1980) - IMDb

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## Shinpachi (Jul 7, 2017)

mikewint said:


> This is probably independent corroboration of the _Koshu_'s status. Fukiko Aoki, Japanese author, writes in_Searching for Amelia Earhart _in 1984 that there were two Japanese ships in the area. The "battleship _Koshu_" and the carrier _Kamoi_. According to her, she reviewed the logs of the _Koshu _which reflect the dates and places reported. The _Koshu _left Jaluit on 19 Jul 37 headed to Saipan.



Log of IJN seaplane tender "Kamoi (神威)" with reference code: C11084206500 & C11084206600 at JACAR tells -

On July 2 1937, IJN seaplane tender Kamoi was at Saipan
On July 3, she left Saipan for Isewan (Nagoya, Japan)
July 4 - 9, viewing the islands of Mariana, she cruised to Isewan.
On July 10, Kamoi arrived at Isewan.

Log




Kamoi

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 7, 2017)

While an intriguing photo, I'm not buying. The major issue I've always contended that makes a Japanese conspiracy theory bollocks is _motive_. The Japanese had none, nada, nothing as far as reasons go to capture, keep secret and then execute Earhart and Noonan.

Conversely, the Japanese had *EVERY* reason to announce and trumpet from the highest platform that they had found and rescued the famous flyers. Over and over, it's _1937_, not _1941_, sure tensions were starting to heat up but just barely and not enough for this scenario to play out. In fact, if the Japanese *had* rescued Earhart and Noonan, don't you think that would have benefited U.S. - Japan relations?

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## Shinpachi (Jul 7, 2017)

Sorry again but let me obey my first impression ,
I think this ship in question on the right is a German cargo ship which was built by Howaldts-Werke in Kiel in the early 1900's. German ships in the Pacific were captured by the Great Britain/Commonwealth and Japan after the ww1 was over as you may know well.

The picture looks having been taken during 1906-1914 when Germany still occupied the area because the vessel's painting scheme does not show any military purposes yet. People in the center look Germans with local people, of course.






To make my guess clearer, here are couple of such German vessels, namely Signal, which was given to Australia as Bulga and another one namely Michael Jabsen which was given to Japan in 1915. To my surprise, Michael Jabsen was renamed "Koshu (膠州)" later.
There was one more Koshu, not Koshu Maru, which I did not know.

Bulga





Koshu (膠州)

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 7, 2017)

Airframes said:


> It's all b*ll*cks -- the photo shows *Fred Astaire* and *Ginger Rogers*, in between takes for one of the 'road' movies, on the back lot somewhere in 'dream land' ..... .....



*AHA! * Caught you you insidious disinformation specialist! _EVERYONE_ knows that *Bob Hope* and *Bing Crosby* did the "On the Road to ..." movies!!!

Sooooo, you're part of the cover up then eh?

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 7, 2017)

The alleged plane looks like it has a single tail instead of a double.

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## Airframes (Jul 7, 2017)

Ah, but Fred and Ginger were to make a guest appearance in this movie, "Er heart is broken, dancing on the road" !


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## Gnomey (Jul 7, 2017)

I'm certainly still not convinced...


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## Robert Porter (Jul 8, 2017)

Nope, not at all convinced. The book mentioned has been at least partially discredited right here in the forum. The logs the author claimed as proof obviously were not as she said. On and on, the pictures prove nothing and as a software developer I am very familiar with and have access to facial recognition (we used it in a project that identified drivers in traffic cams). Those pictures would be rejected as unusable by any version of facial recognition I am aware of. And I doubt very much the author or her sources had access to any more capable version than I do. 

Lastly I agree with above. There is no conceivable motive for Japan to have done anything other than shout to the world if they had actually found the fliers either dead or alive.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 8, 2017)

Yes, the book was very controversial for Japanese veterans and old crews of the ships in the 1980s.
They were glad when TIGHAR stood up to prove facts scientifically and so cooperative with its research.

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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

While living in Los Angeles in 1923, Earhart worked in a photography studio; she and a friend later briefly operated their own photography business. This interest endured; Earhart took a number of photographs of clouds and ships that passed below as the Friendship crossed the Atlantic in 1928 and she continued to take pictures of the people and places she visited. These pictures from 1937, along with diary entries that she was writing for the book about her flight, were mailed back to Putnam in the United States.

Author Randall Brink interviewed a Lockheed technician, who told him: "I recall that I was directed to cut two 16-to-18-inch-diameter holes for the cameras, which were to be mounted in the lower aft fuselage bay and would be electrically operated." These cameras, Mr. Brink says, were placed there to take pictures of Japan's military buildup in the islands.

Japan seized the islands from the Germans during World War I (1914). The League of Nations awarded a mandate to the Japanese after the War under the authority of Article 22 of the League of Nations Charter. The Japanese set up their administration at Jaluit which had been the German administrative center. The Marshalls were referred to as the Eastern Mandates. The Japanese after World War I settled about 1,000 Japanese civilians on the Marshalls in addition to military personnel. As Japan began to move toward war (late-1930s), they began to *militarize the islands *with the idea of expansionism south and toward other islands in Oceania. This was a violation of the League of Nations Mandate under which the islands had been administered, but Japan had withdrawn from the League (1934). The Japanese had, however, on at least one of the islands in the major atoll group *built airstrips for military aircraft*.

Very soon after seizing the islands in 1914, Japan placed serious restrictions on visits there by ships of other nations. Concern on the part of Britain and the U.S. over this development – both because it restricted trade by their merchants and because it could permit the Japanese to fortify the islands in secret – may have led the U.S. to instigate a diplomatic conflict over a cable relay station on Yap in 1921. In settling its dispute with the U.S. over this station Japan in 1922 agreed to unrestricted access to Micronesian territorial waters by U.S. commercial vessels, and to the extension of an existing free trade agreement, the Treaty of Commerce and Navigation, to the mandated islands. However, Port visits could be carried out only in accordance with complex regulations, so complex and restrictive, that they had the effect of excluding foreign shipping. These regulations and their implementation served to *keep other nations in the dark about just what the Empire was up to in its mandated islands.* The result was suspicion on the part of nations like the U.S., which *initiated intelligence operations* to find out what was going on. Between 1915 and 1922, most intelligence work involved interviewing people who had traveled to or through the islands for commercial or other reasons. The period from 1922 through 1929 saw the active if not always very effective use of spies operating under cover of commercial and scientific activities. The third, during the 1930s and 1940-41, emphasized monitoring radio transmissions, censoring mails, *the continuing use of agents and aerial overflights.*

Two major questions have been raised: First, would the U.S. have had any reason to organize such a spy mission, and second, would the Japanese, had they discovered it, have had any reason to *keep the matter secret and execute the spies?*

By 1937 the Imperial Japanese Navy was calling the shots in Micronesia and initiated construction of major improvements in air, sea and land facilities. Sea-plane facilities had already been built for the Nan'yõ-Cho (South Seas Government) in the late 1930s on several islands of the former Mandated Territory and between 1935 and 1937 the Japanese government spent almost 1,000,000 Yen on further construction of air facilities. In the Marshall Islands, known seaplane bases with shore facilities were located on Wotje, Wotje Atoll; Ebeye, Kwajalein Atoll; Jabwor, Jaluit Atoll; Djarrit, Majuro Atoll; and Engebi, Enewetak Atoll. Suspected seaplane facilities or temporary seaplane bases may have existed on Rongelap, Mile and Bokak. Certainly the U.S. was suspicious of Japanese intentions in the islands, and its suspicions had to be heightened by Japan’s withdrawal from the League of Nations and its abrogation of the naval treaties. *Certainly, too, the U.S. was actively involved in gathering intelligence about what the Japanese were doing in the mandate.*

Under these circumstances it is not unreasonable to think that U.S. intelligence would have been interested in having someone fly over key islands in the mandate. Before and during World War II, Truk Lagoon was Japan’s main base in the South Pacific theatre, a heavily fortified base for Japanese operations against Allied forces in New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, serving as the forward anchorage for the Japanese Imperial Fleet.

In 1937, U.S. intelligence would have been extremely interested in the status of this naval base, once known to Allied forces as Japan’s “Gibraltar of the Pacific,” and Amelia might have been asked to observe and possibly even take some photos. If the Electra had turned NE from New Guinea it would have arrived over Truk at about 7 p.m. local time, with plenty of daylight left. Now I fully understand that we have no proof that Amelia attempted to perform such a mission, but her actions during the final flight suggest something very strange was afoot, and she had two meetings with top U.S. officials during April 1937, according to Margot DeCarie, her personal secretary.

So after leaving New Guinea, Amelia could have turned NE aiming for Truk, overfly Truk and the rest of that island group and the turn SE to aim for Howland. Earhart's final in-flight radio message occurred at 08:43_: “We are on the line 157-337. We will repeat this message. We will repeat this on 6210 kilocycles. Wait,” _she said. 157/337 is a compass heading from the north to the south and would intersect a line drawn straight East from Truk. So after flying East from Truk, Earhart could then turn South along this heading to hit Howland.

*Now before you all jump in here*, once again I do understand that there is an alternative explanation: Noonan, unable to take celestial bearings during the night due to cloudy conditions would have used the time of sunrise to determine his East-West position. The sun rises in a slightly different direction every day, and it climbs at an angle so the direction is constantly shifting. That morning it came up at 67 degrees, and because a Line of Position is always at a right angle to the observed celestial body, the line to be derived from the rising sun was 157/337. By noting the time that the sun came up, Amelia’s navigator, Fred Noonan, could draw a 157/337 line on his map and know that they were somewhere on that line. He can then draw a 157/337 line that passes through Howland. The distance between those two parallel lines tells then how far they have to fly East to hit the second 157/337 line. The problem is now that they have no way of knowing their North or South distance from Howland. They now have to visually sight Howland. At the time an Excellent navigator would get +/- 5 miles from their destinations by this DR method and +/- 10 miles was an acceptable error. However this included being able to take bearings *during* the flight to correct for North/South drift.

One can only guess what Earhart might have seen/photographed over Truk. Had Amelia Earhart flown over any of the Marianas or Carolines ... she would have seen only the same sort of facilities available to Pan-American Airways at its new commercial base at Guam; had she flown over the Marshalls ... she might have seen Japanese warships at Jaluit Atoll and possibly the construction of new facilities such as the new Japanese airbase on Taroa Island

But of course, what Earhart and Noonan actually saw or could have seen, whether they were or were not spies is not really relevant. No one who has worked in a bureaucracy can have much trouble imagining a situation in which someone makes a stupid mistake – a local military official or police official overreacts to the crash landing of what he thinks is a spy plane – and things spiral out of control, to the point at which there is nothing to do but execute the supposed spies and hide the evidence that it ever happened to “save face” and remember that by this point in time the Japanese military, even lower ranking officers were making the decisions not Tokyo. 

Again I point out the Shenyang/Mukden incident that triggered the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Three Colonels and a Major, Colonel Seishirō Itagaki, Lieutenant Colonel Kanji Ishiwara, Colonel Kenji Doihara, and Major Takayoshi Tanaka had laid complete plans for the incident by May 31, 1931.
At Dalian in the Kwantung Leased Territory, Commander-in-Chief of the Kwantung Army General Shigeru Honjō was at first appalled that the invasion plan was *enacted without his permission*, but he was eventually convinced by Ishiwara to give his approval *after the fact*.

The Japanese invasion of China itself was triggered by a Japanese private. When a Japanese soldier, Private Shimura Kikujiro, failed to return to his post, Chinese regimental commander Ji Xingwen (219th Regiment, 37th Division, 29th Route Army) received a message from the Japanese demanding permission to enter Wanping to search for the missing soldier. The Chinese refused. And, although Private Shimura returned to his unit, by this point both sides were mobilizing, with the Japanese deploying reinforcements and surrounding Wanping. A Truce was eventually negotiated but again a Japanese Garrison Infantry Brigade commander General Masakazu Kawabe rejected the truce and, against his superiors' orders, continued to shell Wanping for the next three hours, until prevailed upon to cease and to move his forces to the northeast.

The question of whether Earhart and Noonan ditched in the sea and sank or made a landing is also open to question.

Transmissions from Earhart's Electra (NR16020) were possible on three primary frequencies: 3105 kHz, 6210 kHz and 500 kHz. For the latter, however, there were no reported post loss signals.
On her world flight, Earhart transmitted on 3105 kHz at night, and 6210 kHz during daylight, using her 50-watt WE-13C transmitter.
The Itasca transmitted on 3105 kHz, but did not have voice capability on 6210 kHz.

Under favorable propagation conditions, it was possible for aircraft operating on the U.S. West Coast at night to be heard on 3105 kHz in the central Pacific. In fact, the Itasca reported hearing such signals on one occasion. TIGHAR built a detailed catalog and analysis of all the reported post-loss radio signals, and selected the credible ones based on those frequencies. Amelia Earhart did not simply vanish on July 2, 1937. Radio distress calls believed to have been sent from the missing plane dominated the headlines and drove much of the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy search. When the search failed, all of the reported post-loss radio signals were categorically dismissed as bogus.

Using digitized information management systems, antenna modeling software, and radio wave propagation analysis programs, TIGHAR re-examined all the 120 known reports of radio signals suspected or alleged to have been sent from the Earhart aircraft after local noon on July 2, 1937 through July 18, 1937, when the official search ended. They concluded that 57 out of the 120 reported signals are credible.

The results of the study suggest that the aircraft was on land and on its wheels for several days following the disappearance since a plane under water could not transmit. Since these were open broadcasts they certainly could have been heard by the Japanese who then located and captured the pair.


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## stona (Jul 8, 2017)

I'm not an expert, but I'm surprised that none of the so called photo-analysts noticed that there is something very odd going on with the horizon as indicated by my arrows.






Also half of 'Noonan' seems to be missing. This whole area looks to have been doctored to me, and not even very well.

I'm calling this a fake and wonder whether some people just see what they want to believe, or what those paying them wnat them to see.

Cheers

Steve

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## buffnut453 (Jul 8, 2017)

Mike,

There needs to be a consistent timeline for these spying ideas to work. According to the well-regarded Pacific Wrecks website, Taroa airfield wasn't started until 1939. Similarly, Truk wasn't fortified until 1940 as described here. Even after the start of WW2, Truk was little more than a deep lagoon with no piers or facilities for permanent ship repairs (all supplies for ships visiting Truk had to be taken out by lighter until well into WW2). There was precious little for Earhart and Noonan to see and certainly nothing that merited their murder in 1937.

Even if they were conducting aerial reconnaissance on behalf of the US Government, wouldn't it have been in Japan's best interest to highlight that fact? If Japan went to the trouble of sending a vessel to rescue the two aviators, and that mission succeeded in recovering the aircraft wreckage, wouldn't that have been a stupendous political coup to show the world the reconnaissance installation? Notwithstanding the potential for low-ranking Japanese officers to foment unrest, surely it would be in the best interests of those Japanese officers to embarrass the US Government by revealing the Noonan/Earhart flight as hostile? 

As to the radio transmissions, if the US Government thought there was any chance that these 2 airborne spies were still alive, wouldn't they move heaven and earth to rescue them and the film from the cameras allegedly installed in the aircraft? Investigations were made at the time and all transmissions were found to be unrelated to the Earhart/Noonan flight. Why would the Government do that if there was a risk that their clandestine mission would be compromised by the Japanese? 

Sorry but none of this makes any sense to me. Given the widespread nature of the islands, in order to do a proper reconnaissance would require Earhart and Noonan to fly around all the islands, unless they were focusing on one in particular...but which one? As noted, Truk was just a deep lagoon. Tarao and Mili airfields and the Ebaye seaplane base weren't started until years later so what, exactly, was there to be seen in 1937?

The romantic in me would really like some aspect of this story to be true but the evidence just doesn't match up. None of it makes coherent sense, I'm afraid.

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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Steve, got to admit I never noticed that before. The Noonan figure seems to be with his right arm/hand holding onto a pole/post/board with a notice/sign attached but I see now that his lower waist and upper waist don't seem to match and that's in that non-matching horizon part of the photo. I went to a number of web site featuring that photo and found this on one of them: *an old, cracked photograph found in the National Archives, showing a group of people on a dock in the Marshall Islands. Among the figures: two people who just might be Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan. *
so possibly a defect in the photo? We are working with a copy of a copy...


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## stona (Jul 8, 2017)

Is it a glass plate?
Sounds like more nonsense.
Cheers
Steve


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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Buff, I've got to disagree with you in part. My post is long but I think I've already covered your objections



mikewint said:


> But of course, what Earhart and Noonan actually saw or could have seen, whether they were or were not spies is not really relevant.





mikewint said:


> These regulations and their implementation served to *keep other nations in the dark about just what the Empire was up to in its mandated islands.* The result was suspicion on the part of nations like the U.S., which *initiated intelligence operations* to find out what was going on.





mikewint said:


> a local military official or police official overreacts to the crash landing of what he thinks is a spy plane – and things spiral out of control, to the point at which there is nothing to do but execute the supposed spies and hide the evidence that it ever happened to “save face”



I think that you are asking these officials to make decisions on an international scale, way above their pay grade. So a short sighted official (in such a back-water post he may not have even known of Earhart's flight or even recognized her) suddenly has a foreign plane land and begin broadcasting. He has two "White-Devils in hand with a plane that had over flown forbidden air space and they had a camera. The scenario screams spies and he reacts accordingly. 



buffnut453 said:


> sending a vessel to rescue the two aviators, and that mission succeeded in recovering the aircraft wreckage, wouldn't that have been a stupendous political coup to show the world the reconnaissance installation?



Being cautious he lets them think that they and their plane are on their way to rescue until the arrive on Siapan where their true status as prisoners becomes apparent and they are put in prison. By the time higher level authorities are made aware of what has transpired Earhart & Noonan have been in prison, ill treated as befits spies and tortured to admit their guilt. 
As has happened in the past, lower ranking Japanese have presented their superiors with a fait accompli and the "save face" cover up begins


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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Steve, you've made a valid observation but I have several old photos taken by my grandfather in which the emulsion is beginning to wrinkle and crack.
So I can't say that it hasn't been Photoshopped but for a national broadcast on TV one would expect better work


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## stona (Jul 8, 2017)

mikewint said:


> for a national broadcast on TV one would expect better work



Not here, not always. Producers need to sell their programmes and let's just say editorial standards aren't what they were. There are more channels and a lot more hours to fill these days

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## Robert Porter (Jul 8, 2017)

If the photo exists in the national archives, misfiled or not, upon its retrieval by the authors it would have been cataloged and a highly accurate scan/reproduction would be available at the national archives site. So it should be fairly easy to determine the condition of the photo at the time the authors "discovered" it in their research. They obviously claim to have reproduced the photo themselves as they published a reproduction. It just seems pretty sketchy and very typical of conspiracy theory nutjobs with an axe to grind, as one of the authors clearly had.


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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Robert, the veracity of that particular photograph really has nothing to do with the Earhart/Noonan Japanese prisoner scenario. It has bee bandied about for years 

Goerner mentions the statement Nimitz made to him on the phone in late March 1965: “Now that you’re going to Washington, Fred, I want to tell you that Earhart and her navigator did go down in the Marshalls and were picked up by the Japanese.”

Later Admiral Nimitz became vitally interested in the Earhart questions, providing suggestions for further research and attempting to help with access to classified information. Before his death in 1966, Nimitz advised, “Never give up. You are on to something that will stagger your imagination.”

Gen. Graves B. Erskine, USMC (Ret.) one of the U.S. Marine Corps’ most distinguished officers told CBS in a 1966 private interview, “We did learn that Earhart was on Saipan and that she died there.”

Gen. Alexander A. Vandegrift, USMC (Ret.), who commanded the US Marine Corps during the later stages of WW II the Pacific stated on August 10, 1971, “It was substantiated that Miss Earhart met her death on Saipan. The information was given to me directly by General Thomas Watson, who commanded the 2nd U.S. Marine Corps Division during the assault on Saipan in 1944.”

President Franklin D. Roosevelt personally interested himself in the flight, directing the War, Navy, Army and State Departments to cooperate. Enthusiasm was not unanimous. One high-ranking Navy officer wrote in longhand on the margin of the directive, “*Why are we doing this? There isn’t that much to gain, and it’ll excite the Japs.”*

U.S. Congressman William I. Sirovich one day dropped by to see his friend Claude A. Swanson, who was secretary of the U.S. Navy. Sirovich, curious about the seeming mystery surrounding the Earhart disappearance, asked Swanson for his feelings about the matter.
“*This is a powder keg,” replied Swanson. “Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I’m not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse*.”

In 1944 on Majuro Atoll during the invasion of the Marshall Islands, Vice Adm. Edgar A. Cruise learned from a native interpreter named Michael Madison that an American man and woman flyers had been picked up and brought into the Marshalls in 1937.

At almost the same time, Eugene F. Bogan, serving as a senior military government officer at Majuro (Bogan is now one of America’s leading tax attorneys in Washington, D.C.) interviewed a Marshallese native named Elieu Jibambam, who told the same story.

Major Rick Spooner, USMC retired, was there when Marines found a photo album in a military home on Saipan, and how his fellow Marines described it as a book filled with photos of Earhart and Noonan and other "white people." He believes the book came from the Electra. He also observed that the book was taken by Wallace Green, USMC, who turned it over to military intelligence.


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## fubar57 (Jul 8, 2017)

That is an awful lot of people who seem to know the "truth" and still have this remain a mystery


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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Personally I think it stems from the fear of becoming the "White Crow". So all are verbal, you know "plausible deniability"
Whistle Blowers seldom get parades


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## buffnut453 (Jul 8, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Buff, I've got to disagree with you in part. My post is long but I think I've already covered your objections
> 
> I think that you are asking these officials to make decisions on an international scale, way above their pay grade. So a short sighted official (in such a back-water post he may not have even known of Earhart's flight or even recognized her) suddenly has a foreign plane land and begin broadcasting. He has two "White-Devils in hand with a plane that had over flown forbidden air space and they had a camera. The scenario screams spies and he reacts accordingly.
> 
> ...



You would have a valid point if the captain of the recovery vessel (or some other official) decided, on the spot, to execute Earhart and Noonan before leaving the crash site. However, the longer the 2 are held and they further they get from the crash site, the less likely your "rogue junior official" theory becomes. The Japanese vessel must have received radio orders to proceed to the crash site. It's therefore entirely reasonable that it would report back on what it found as a matter of urgency. If it reported back to higher HQ that the 2 fliers had been rescued with the aircraft wreckage, and that the latter had evidence that they had been conducting a reconnaissance mission, I think it highly likely that higher HQ would have provided direction for how to handle the situation...and dragging them away from the island, then letting them loose in the harbor at Jaluit, only to imprison them back on board before executing them stretches credibility too far. If Tokyo had unimpeachable evidence of US intelligence gathering over Japanese mandated islands, they surely would flout that evidence to the world rather than bury it. And if it was a rogue official, that would more likely happen sooner rather than later. The longer Earhart and Noonan survive, the greater the likelihood that someone would see them (particularly if they let them off the boat at Jaluit), and the greater the chance that executing them would backfire.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 8, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Robert, the veracity of that particular photograph really has nothing to do with the Earhart/Noonan Japanese prisoner scenario. It has bee bandied about for years
> 
> Goerner mentions the statement Nimitz made to him on the phone in late March 1965: “Now that you’re going to Washington, Fred, I want to tell you that Earhart and her navigator did go down in the Marshalls and were picked up by the Japanese.”
> 
> ...




And this all brings us back to the fundamental assumption that Earhart and Noonan saw SOMETHING...but nobody can tell us what it was and the only "evidence" is some name-dropping quotes that, with one possible exception, are entirely unprovable. Even then, people's memories are fallible. They can mistake the timing of things, insert activities that never really happened etc...but we're supposed to take all this at face value?

The Marshalls only really started being developed as military bases in 1940 so Earhart and Noonan didn't see that activity. Any sorties by IJN vessels would be, by their very nature, transitory in nature so the intelligence provided would be highly perishable. What was going on in that part of the Pacific in 1937 that was so important?

What secret could they have discovered that was so significant it would break US-Japanese relations 25 years after the fact...oh, and after those nations had waged a 4-year war that killed hundreds of thousands of people and ended with the only operational use of nuclear weapons? After all that, we're supposed to believe that Earhart and Noonan saw something worse than all that?

Sorry but I can't think of ANYTHING that important happening in that part of the world in 1937. Oh, yeah...that right. It's because it's a secret! Gimme a break!!

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## Shinpachi (Jul 8, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Again I point out the Shenyang/Mukden incident that triggered the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Three Colonels and a Major, Colonel Seishirō Itagaki, Lieutenant Colonel Kanji Ishiwara, Colonel Kenji Doihara, and Major Takayoshi Tanaka had laid complete plans for the incident by May 31, 1931.
> At Dalian in the Kwantung Leased Territory, Commander-in-Chief of the Kwantung Army General Shigeru Honjō was at first appalled that the invasion plan was *enacted without his permission*, but he was eventually convinced by Ishiwara to give his approval *after the fact*.



Status of Kwantung Army was equal to IJA and IJN.
It did not necessarily have to consult with Tokyo each time but had to report what it did afterwards without delay.
So, they had thought that anything could be allowed if it was successful.


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## wuzak (Jul 8, 2017)

stona said:


> I'm not an expert, but I'm surprised that none of the so called photo-analysts noticed that there is something very odd going on with the horizon as indicated by my arrows.
> View attachment 377668
> 
> 
> ...



Looking at the image at a larger scale, it looks like where the horizon appears to change there is some land.

Also, "Noonan's" body seems to be twisted. He appears to be holding some sort of pole with a banner on the top with his right hand, his left shoulder rotated away from the camera and his left hand appears to be on his hip, or maybe it is holding the pole too. Hard to tell.

He also has shadows of his arms on his body. Those of you who are experienced in photo analysis might be able to say if the shadows are consistent.







http://cdn.history.com/sites/2/2017/07/DockPhoto.jpg


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## mikewint (Jul 8, 2017)

Exactly what I had stated in an earlier post. The military was in charge of the government and did not answer to civilian authority. And the dreaded Kenpeitai made sure no one showed any opposition

Buff, I see the same things that you do but drawn a opposite conclusion. The "captain" that initially "rescued" Earhart and Noonan is/was in many/most accounts a Japanese fisherman. He was in effect a true rescuer and his simple fishing boat had no radio. There are differing accounts as to where the fisherman took Earhart and Noonan but eventually they are in the hands of Japanese authorities on Jaluit and not exactly prisoners but more like House Arrest. It's after all a pier and neither Earhart or Noonan have any inkling of what is in store for them so they're relaxed expecting to be cleared and returned. On board the Koshu it's much the same, it's a ship on the ocean where are they going to go. There true status become apparent at the Kenpeitai Headquarters in Susupe, Saipan and it is too late to do anything. 
You mention witnesses, there are literally hundreds of them so many in fact that the Republic of the Marshall Islands issued stamps portraying the crash, Earhart and Noonan on the beach, and the Koshu taking them and their plane to Saipan. Over 200 people claim to have seen her, nursed her, fed her, washed her clothes when she got to Saipan, for example, *"I saw her in the back of a truck in May 1944 being transported by soldiers. I had never seen a white woman in my life, and it's not the kind of thing you forget, even at age 12 - a woman dressed like a man with her arms bound and a blindfold. She was parked in front of me for 30 minutes. My brother was next to me."*
As to what if anything they saw or photographed I repeat again that it matters not. The Japanese were VERY secretive about what was going on in their Mandate so what matters is that the Japanese thought they had seen/photographed something of note. Denials merely fueled the disbelief.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 8, 2017)

mikewint said:


> You mention witnesses, there are literally hundreds of them so many in fact that the Republic of the Marshall Islands issued stamps portraying the crash, Earhart and Noonan on the beach, and the Koshu taking them and their plane to Saipan.



So, when were those souvenir stamps issued ?
Wasn't it after some journalists wrote the story ?

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## buffnut453 (Jul 8, 2017)

Mike,

Kosho is not a trawler so we're talking about a different vessel that carried the 2 pilots to Jaluit and then transferred them to Kosho? If so, how did the wreckage get to Jaluit? 

Irrespective, as soon as the pair were onboard the Kosho they were on a vessel that had radio contact with the outside world. Again, why just detain them and not expose them as being spies? You're not answering the fundamental question of WHY they would be killed by the Japanese instead of being exposed on the world stage to the embarrassment of the US Government? 

Shinpachi makes a good point about how many of these eyewitness accounts have come out since the topic became a noted conspiracy theory? This has all the hallmarks of something that can never be unproven because the "evidence" is nothing more than hearsay and may not be reliable. 

If you can come up with a cogent reason for exactly WHY the Japanese would murder 2 US civilians in 1937 when the US didn't impose sanctions until 1938? Give me any shred of a reasonable reason and I'll start to pay more attention...like every good cop show, in order to convict there must be a MOTIVE. Until that happens, I'm going to remain hugely skeptical of the so-called evidence.

Cheers,
Mark

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## Robert Porter (Jul 8, 2017)

Sorry but I still don't see it, Nimitz and the others, there is not one shred of substantiation that any of that was said by any of them, it is a perfect storm of conspiracy theory at work. That many folks of that high a rank could not have kept the information from their respective staff's and family. Just does not happen, especially where the US had nothing to lose if they were spies, and less so if they were not.

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## Graeme (Jul 9, 2017)

wuzak said:


> Also, "Noonan's" body seems to be twisted. He appears to be holding some sort of pole with a banner on the top with his right hand, his left shoulder rotated away from the camera and his left hand appears to be on his hip, or maybe it is holding the pole too. Hard to tell.



That's my interpretation as well Wuzak. But I can't figure if I'm seeing a flexed right knee or canvass awning belonging to that boat?? Is that difference in the sea level a land mass in the background??
Then again - I'm due for a Specsavers visit.

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## mikewint (Jul 9, 2017)

Graeme beautiful job on the photo unfortunately copy of a copy. Be nice to have the original negative. The slightly different shadings on the horizon may indeed show "something on the water? And the dark shape above Noonan's? left belt?

Robert, that is the exact goal of "Plausible Deniability". Men like Nimitz had a LOT to loose by coming out against official government policy so they drop tidbits and hope someone will take up the cause. As to "what was there to loose" re-read the Swanson quote:
*This is a powder keg,” replied Swanson. “Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I’m not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse*.”
Remember the US was walking a tightrope with Japan still hoping to avoid an all-out war.

Buff (Mark), I am still somewhat skeptical myself but the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence are hard (for me at least) to totally discount. I am also very much aware of FDR's more realistic appraisal of Japanese motives and intent and his use of civilian resources to avoid a military tie-in. Are you aware of FDR's "Astor Spy Ring"?
Vincent Astor’s “job” was forwarding civilian gathered intelligence directly to FDR at least as early as 1933. Most early data concerned general conditions in the Caribbean and Panama Canal Zone, but in 1936 Fred Dearing wrote Roosevelt from his post in Peru that Astor planned to cruise off the Pacific coast of Latin America. "I understand that Vincent Astor is going back to the Galapagos Islands again with a few visitors, but I expect he might pick up some scraps of information for you while he is there." Though anxious to have Astor check rumors that Japanese ships were surveying the Galapagos to locate a site for an advanced base, Roosevelt was more concerned to learn what the Japanese were doing on their far distant islands in the South Pacific held since World War I as League of Nations mandates. Conveniently, Astor and Kermit Roosevelt planned a scientific expedition to the Marshall Islands as a cover for other investigations.
Astor made elaborate preparations, including establishment of a recognition code word for the Nourmahal, a 41 foot yacht built for multi-millionaire Astor in 1928 at Krupp Iron Works in Kiel, Germany, to tie in with the United States Navy radio network and a briefing by Director of Naval Intelligence Ralston S. Holmes. "Admiral Holmes (O.N.I.) told me he believed the Japs had a lot of Radio stations in the islands," Astor advised FDR. "I should think that it would be interesting to know their exact location," and "Nourmahal has a Radio Direction Finder."

In early 1938 Astor sent a lengthy report to the president reviewing his voyage with Kermit Roosevelt to the South Pacific. "On my return, I shall of course make a proper report to O.N.I.," he explained. "However in the remote possibility of trouble between now and then, you might consider the following conclusions of mine concerning the Marshall Islands worth forwarding to Naval Operations & O.N.I." In his message to the president, Astor admitted that when the Japanese refused to grant permission to land he had become a bit of a coward and had left the area. However, through intercepted radio messages and interviews with British intelligence people on the nearby Gilbert and Ellice Islands he had gathered some important data. Astor observed that Eniwetok, not Jaluit or Wotje, seemed to be the principal Japanese naval base, since large docks, fuel stores and ships had been observed there for several years. Bikini Atoll, Astor confided, abounded in suspicious activity and was off-limits to local natives. In addition, Roosevelt's man had learned that trucks and tractors worked to clear an air strip on Wotje, while six Japanese submarines lurked in a nearby lagoon. Astor performed one valuable service by correcting the common impression in Washington that Japan had fortified the Marshall Islands, insisting that the concrete platforms on one island comprised floors for warehouses not emplacements for guns. "I feel moderately certain that there are none [forts] in the Marshalls," he wrote FDR. The Japanese protested vehemently to the U.S. State Department, and one Japanese press report indicated that the U.S. Navy had sent “warships” into the Marshalls and was forming a task force for an attack. Astor had caused a storm with Japan, but his mission was unknown in America.

However, the Japanese while ostensibly building “civilian” structures had built them to heavier, thicker, stronger standards making them easily convertible to later military usage. The U.S. had long believed that Japan was violating that treaty in the Mandated Islands, but could not prove it. The U.S. had countered on Midway and Wake Islands through cooperation with Pan American airways by building “civilian” air fields there, and now Earhart would become the civilian reason or cover for building a landing strip on Howland. To further disguise the Howland venture, President Roosevelt diverted funds from the civilian Works Progress Administration, an obfuscation tactic he had used several times before.
So IMHO, Earhart and Noonan surviving the crash would answer many post-crash questions like the radio messages heard by many official and un-official radio operators. Were Earhart and Noonan spies in the traditional sense, No, but collecting "White Intelligence" I think Yes. Would this infuriate the Japanese, IMHO, Yes. The Japanese Kenpeitai answered to no one and their brutality well known. Would the Kenpeitai consider this White Intelligence spying? again I think Yes. Earhart and Noonan were already thought of as dead and under torture who knows what Noonan may have confessed to, so execution was the easy way to make the problem "go away".
Unpopular? You bet, to the extreme. One only has to look through the replies to these postings to see how many members, whom I would have expected more of, have resorted to Adpellatus Illudere posts 

Shimpachi - the Independent Republic of the Marshall Islands issued the four stamps in 1987 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Amelia Earhart's landing at Mili Atoll and pick-up by the Japanese survey ship Koshu in July 1937. To the Marshallese people the disappearance of Amelia Earhart is no mystery or rumor but a stone cold fact.


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## fubar57 (Jul 9, 2017)

Amelia Earhart Captured and Killed? New Evidence Debunks History Channel’s Crazy Theory

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## Robert Porter (Jul 9, 2017)

I understand Plausible Deniability but also understand that the more people that know a secret the faster it no longer becomes a secret. And you keep quoting the same nutcases each time attributing remarks supposedly made to them by numerous high ranking people. Sorry but common sense would tell anyone that if that many people knew about this there would be many more sources confirming these attributed statements. And Nimitz certainly had MANY ways to expose such a plot without exposing himself if he wanted to do so, it happens all the time. Most "leaks" are not truly people talking out of turn, they are engineered to disclose information that a party wants to disclose without being seen as the one doing so. This tactic has been in use as far back as recorded history goes. There is no need to play the drop hints games alluded to.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 9, 2017)

fubar57 said:


> Amelia Earhart Captured and Killed? New Evidence Debunks History Channel’s Crazy Theory



Yes, Aoki revised her "Looking for Amelia" in 1995 in order to introduce the TIGHAR as another possibility.


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## mikewint (Jul 9, 2017)

Geo, The Daily Beast, not exactly the most accurate news source. OK let's review:
_However, in 1982 a Japanese author and journalist, Fukiko Aoki, published a book in Japanese, Looking for Amelia._

Go back over the posts in this thread to see what Shinpachi thinks of her

_As Aoki’s research indicates, the assumption that the Japanese military was under orders to arrest and quietly kill_

Never at any time was this even hinted at. Again re-read all posts. The Kenpeitai were responsible for the imprisonment and execution on their own initiative.

_a minor clash between Japanese and Chinese troops near Beijing suddenly turned into all-out war between the two nations._

Minor? Probably not to the 500 Chinese troops that were killed by the Japanese during their invasion of Mukden

Near? Actually 690km but they actually meant the Chinese garrison of Beidaying (well they both start with Bei) only 800 m distant
Suddenly turned into? Believing that a conflict in Manchuria would be in the best interests of Japan, and acting in the spirit of the Japanese concept of gekokujō (overthrowing ones superiors), Kwantung Army Colonel Seishirō Itagaki and Lieutenant Colonel Kanji Ishiwara independently devised a plan to prompt Japan to invade Manchuria by provoking an incident from Chinese forces stationed nearby. However, after the Japanese Minister of War Jirō Minami dispatched Major General Yoshitsugu Tatekawa to Manchuria for the specific purpose of curbing the insubordination and militarist behavior of the Kwantung Army, Itagaki and Ishiwara knew that they no longer had the luxury of waiting for the Chinese to respond to provocations but had to stage their own. Plans were in place by May 31 and the dynamite set off on Sept 18 1931
Again all this covered in previous posts

_Then there is how the Japanese treated Charles Lindbergh_

Not germane by any sense. This was 1931 US / Japanese relations were still very good, FDR was not president, The Marshall Island mandate had not yet occurred and Lindberg had not overflown a restricted Japanese territory preparing for a military conflict. Apples and Oranges.

_The theory that Earthart crash landed in the Marshall Islands is not supported by the basic rules of geography and navigation. It rests on the idea that, once Earhart realized she had missed a scheduled rendezvous with a U.S. Coast Guard cutter on tiny Howland Island, she reversed direction._

True. Amelia had a fall-back plan. While Noonan was sure he could locate Howland, after all he had been on PanAms Midway and Wake Island flights for years, Earhart had planned to turn back WEST towards the Gilbert Islands if she could not find Howland

_way beyond the range of the Electra as it was running low on gas at the end of a long leg from Papua, New Guinea_

A repeat of a common error as one author takes from another. Earhart’s first intelligible message to Lae, at 2:18 p.m. local time, when she reported, “HEIGHT 7000 FEET SPEED 140 KNOTS” Pilots know, that when you give a position, you report the speed you are making over the ground, or GROUND SPEED, not TRUE AIR SPEED whereas several authors have confused this reporte 140 knots to be Earhart’s TRUE AIR SPEED.
The increased ground speed reflected a tailwind component for that period of the flight, a normal condition the Electra might encounter in the intertropical convergence zone where winds tend to vary.
At 5:18 p.m. (0718 GMT), seven hours, eighteen minutes after takeoff, Earhart reported her position as 4.33 south, 159.7 east, at 8,000 feet over cumulus clouds with winds at 23 knots. Please note that no direction is/was given. Most authors claim that Earhart ran out of gas some 20 hours and 32 minutes after she left Lae, New Guinea, however Earhart, maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH and using the power settings provided her by Lockheed, had over 24 hours of flying time ahead of her. When she called in at 1912 GCT, she had flown approximately 2556 miles … at an average ground speed of 133 MPH. Maintaining a true air speed of 150 MPH would mean that she had encountered an average head wind of 17 MPH. At 2014 [GMT, or 8:44 a.m. Howland Time], Earhart, in her last message said we are running north and south. At that time it can be reasonably assumed that she departed the Howland Island area and was headed towards the Marshall Islands. She would have had approximately four hours of fuel remaining at this time. Using maximum range true airspeed of 150 MPH (130 knots) and a tail wind of 17 miles per hour, she would have been able to travel some 680 more miles. This issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation by Kennedy is superior to any Lockheed literature. She had the range to reach either the Gilbert Islands, or the lower part of the Marshall Islands

Approaching the question of the Electra’s fuel consumption from another angle, we can apply the plane’s performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane’s climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,100 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion.

Let’s back up a bit. Based on the total amount of fuel she had onboard her Lockheed Electra, Fred and Amelia could have flown another four to six hours. Remember if they couldn't find Howland her fallback plan was to turn west and head toward the Gilbert Islands. She was sure she could find a beach, on one of those islands, to land her plane.
Now due to the general winds along their route and considering that Fred could not correct their flight path by a celestial fix most analysts put him as much as 150 miles NORTH of Howland. She didn't find Howland because she was too far north. Remember the compass heading Amelia gave 157/337 that essentially a NW line so following that line northward and then turning west (as she planned to do if she didn't see Howland), the first piece of land she might have seen was Mili Atoll.

_To believe this demands two leaps of faith or, more likely, of the imagination. The first is that Earhart managed to land on the atoll and the second is that she did so with such skill that her radio remained able to operate._

Actually, the witnesses to the crash landing reported a broken off right wing with the left being canted upwards. With the left engine/generator intact the radio was usable. The Marshall Island stamp shows the witnesses description of the crashed Electra. The Japanese moved the Electra by using ammunition carts whose remains are still on the island as are gouges in the reef.

TIGAR had it even easier as the reef there is as flat as a pancake and almost dry at low tide. Thus both engines were intact and runable. Earhart was able to transmit until tides/waves/wind pushed the Electra over the reef

_They most certainly didn’t die in a Japanese prison._

200 eyewitnesses on Saipan will be surprised to hear that


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## fubar57 (Jul 9, 2017)

The logbook of the ship is not credible?


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## mikewint (Jul 9, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> you keep quoting the same nutcases



For shame Robert, adpellatus illudere, has never been a valid method of arguement

Geo, if you were taking American spies into the hands of the Kenpeitai would you announce it in a log that could at some point be examined? Or would you keep your head on your shoulders and omit the incriminating? Log books written by humans can reflect human mendacity


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## fubar57 (Jul 9, 2017)

And what would be the reason for Lieutenant Sachinao Kouzu to keep quiet years later? If he were to say that they were in fact on the ship that would have been the scoop of the last century


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## Shinpachi (Jul 9, 2017)

After checking the logs, my impression is that Imperial Japanese Navy was not serious about discovering Earhart and her partner in the huge Pacific Ocean. Japanese ships were busy about their daily routine, after all.

The log of IJN special-service ship Koshu (特務艦　膠州) with reference code: C11083156000 & C11083156100 & C11083156300 & C11083156400 at JACAR tells -

General:
Routine job: Observation of upper air by baloon, sea water (streaming, depth, transparency etc) by instruments, laundry, military exercise, lecture, cleaning, maintenance etc.
Off-time entertainment: movie, show-time etc.

July 2 1937 Palau-Ponape
1745 Recognized Greenwich atoll

July 3 Palau-Ponape
0605 recognized Greenwich atoll
0815-0828 Halt. Rescue exercise using a cutter and a launch.
0831-1353 Delivery of supplies & shift member(s) to observatory on Greenwich atoll
1615 Left atoll

July 6-9 Ponape
Loaded coal and water.

July 10 Ponape-Jaluit
0915-0945 Fire‐fighting exercise

July 14-19 Jaluit
Joined athletic games in the stadium, baseball and party.

July 20-23 Jaluit-Ponape

July 24-27 Ponape
Loaded coal and water. Joined exercise.

July 28-August 10 Ponape-Saipan

August 11-20 Saipan

August 21 Left Saipan for Palau

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 10, 2017)

Airframes said:


> Ah, but Fred and Ginger were to make a guest appearance in this movie, "Er heart is broken, dancing on the road" !



OUCH! I must admit I had to read that twice, but well played sir, although I'm still keeping an eye on you, I think you've had too much liquid sun of late.


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## Peter Gunn (Jul 10, 2017)

Gnomey said:


> I'm certainly still not convinced...



Me neither, I still say Airframes is part of the cover up.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 10, 2017)

*“It was substantiated that Miss Earhart met her death on Saipan. The information was given to me directly by General Thomas Watson, who commanded the 2nd U.S. Marine Corps Division during the assault on Saipan in 1944.”*

"IF" Earhart was indeed captured by the Japanese, the US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 10, 2017)

For me, too much of the "evidence" is anecdotal, "he said she said" kind of stuff that I put little stock in, especially years or now decades after the event and much of it second hand at that. Also I'll go out on a limb here and posit that probably more than one airplane may have had to ditch in the XXX lagoon/bay of YYY island/atoll 80 years ago that could have been misidentified by rather primitive islanders.

In short, they could have seen _any_ airplane ditch in their harbor and when pressed by a zealous reporter/researcher claim it was the Electra.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 10, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> *“It was substantiated that Miss Earhart met her death on Saipan. The information was given to me directly by General Thomas Watson, who commanded the 2nd U.S. Marine Corps Division during the assault on Saipan in 1944.”*
> 
> "IF" Earhart was indeed captured by the Japanese, the US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.



Not only that, but surely efforts would have been made to bring those responsible to justice. Such was the climate of the War Crimes Trials that adding to the list of accused the murderer(s) of 2 American civilians in 1937 wouldn't have been a hard thing to accomplish.





mikewint said:


> Buff (Mark), I am still somewhat skeptical myself but the vast amounts of circumstantial evidence are hard (for me at least) to totally discount. I am also very much aware of FDR's more realistic appraisal of Japanese motives and intent and his use of civilian resources to avoid a military tie-in. Are you aware of FDR's "Astor Spy Ring"?
> Vincent Astor’s “job” was forwarding civilian gathered intelligence directly to FDR at least as early as 1933. Most early data concerned general conditions in the Caribbean and Panama Canal Zone, but in 1936 Fred Dearing wrote Roosevelt from his post in Peru that Astor planned to cruise off the Pacific coast of Latin America. "I understand that Vincent Astor is going back to the Galapagos Islands again with a few visitors, but I expect he might pick up some scraps of information for you while he is there." Though anxious to have Astor check rumors that Japanese ships were surveying the Galapagos to locate a site for an advanced base, Roosevelt was more concerned to learn what the Japanese were doing on their far distant islands in the South Pacific held since World War I as League of Nations mandates. Conveniently, Astor and Kermit Roosevelt planned a scientific expedition to the Marshall Islands as a cover for other investigations.
> Astor made elaborate preparations, including establishment of a recognition code word for the Nourmahal, a 41 foot yacht built for multi-millionaire Astor in 1928 at Krupp Iron Works in Kiel, Germany, to tie in with the United States Navy radio network and a briefing by Director of Naval Intelligence Ralston S. Holmes. "Admiral Holmes (O.N.I.) told me he believed the Japs had a lot of Radio stations in the islands," Astor advised FDR. "I should think that it would be interesting to know their exact location," and "Nourmahal has a Radio Direction Finder."
> 
> ...



So...in 1937, Earhart and Noonan are executed for spying but in 1938, Astor isn't despite bobbing around in a boat for weeks and clearly asking to go to places that are off-limits, resulting in a diplomatic storm in Japan? Again, where's the logical consistency here? Having a few submarines or large ships in a lagoon doesn't really count as a major secret (IMHO) and those things (per Astor) were clearly visible to vessels visiting the Marshalls throughout the period in question. Why single out Noonan and Earhart and why use aerial reconnaissance when it was apparently easy to get civilian ships to the area? I still come back to the fundamental question of what could they possibly have seen that was so secret?


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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

Sorry Mike, you are correct. But my point is 200 eyewitness's never came forward. The only source of that and other "facts" you are quoting are one person. And that one person is neither reputable or considered a reliable source. Hence my nutcase remark.


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 10, 2017)

The part I have a hard time believing is you have hundreds and hundreds of people from multiple nations, yet nothing was ever written down and all the evidence is "what somebody told me"?

The one thing bureaucracy excels at is paperwork. We have paperwork from that time of top secret projects, military actions, civilian atrocities committed on all sides, secret negotiations, personal thoughts of the highest ranking civilians and generals, yet not one report from anybody about them crashing and being taken prisoner and executed?

If they had been captured I would have a hard time believing the Emperor was not informed. So at the end of the war the Emporer broadcasts Japan is surrendering, then repudiates the divine status of Japan's emperors and was willing to apologize to his people for the war. I am not an expert on Japanese culture but that are some pretty big deals. So he will do this but not admit the killing of a couple of civilians?

That's REALLY a stretch!

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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

That's my point, we have direct written evidence of far worse atrocities, including those committed by us, but no official or even semi official information on this. Instead we have ramblings and so and so told so and so with no actual evidence. Yes it is in the realm of possibility, but it so unlikely, especially to have survived this long with a secret still intact that I would apply *Occam's razor *and say this is by far more of an overcomplicated answer than the reality. These supposed 200 odd eyewitnesses, none have ever come forward surprised or not. Heck we have found diary entries from numerous officials from the time period including those of Japanese soldiers and civilians documenting horrific episodes yet not one about this?

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## mikewint (Jul 10, 2017)

Guys, I don't have all the answers and all the answers will probably never be discovered 80 years later. BUT, for me, in any case there is too much smoke for there not to have been a gun fired out there somewhere.
FDR had a documented history of using civilians as semi-spies., gathering white information if nothing else. Even in 1937, FDR and a few others knew/suspected that war with Japan was inevitable. While Earhart was well known and applauded for her pro-feminist views and feats in the US, those very things would have been an anathema in Japan. Noonan was essentially a nobody. They had already essentially vanished onto a deserted island in Mili Atoll. The only witnesses would be native Marshallese already Japanese military control.
Now multi-millionaire William Astor, Kermit Roosevelt son of a former president AND a 264 foot long steel yacht ( used as a USCG gunboat in WWII) were a TOTALLY different story. They would be very difficult to make suddenly vanish without MAJOR international consequences. Astor also requested permission to dock, was refused, and then left the area. The Nourmahal was also not using a 50-Watt transmitter with two very simple antennas AND had professional operators who actually knew radio procedures,



Robert Porter said:


> But my point is 200 eyewitness's never came forward


And neither would you if you were surrounded by the Japanese Military. The Marshallese were well acquainted with the fate of anyone foolish enough to displease the Japanese.



Robert Porter said:


> The only source of that and other "facts" you are quoting are one person. And that one person is neither reputable or considered a reliable source. Hence my nutcase remark.


Not sure to whom you are referring to here. There are reams of documents as well as written and video recorded witness statements. Any number of authors have pulled most of this together and the recent investigation by Shawn Henry, a former FBI assistant executive director is hardly a "nutcase" and you don't rise that high in the FBI, or anywhere else by being "unreliable".



buffnut453 said:


> Such was the climate of the War Crimes Trials


The US Japanese trials were almost a joke. 28 accused 25 found guilty. 25 guilty, really:
NANKING MASSACRE
300,000 Chinese civilians killed 80,000 women raped and the documented contest between to officers to see who could kill 100 people with a sword first. They lost count so started again going for 150
COMFORT WOMEN
Starting at 15YO 200,000 women forced into prostitution
RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION
60,000 POWs and 200,000 enslaved locals 110,000 died
UNIT 731
Horrific medical, disease, and chemical testing 300,000 die horribly
BAATAN DEATH MARCH
2500 Filipinos and 500 US soldiers die while in the associated Internment camps run by the Kenpeitai 26,000 Filipinos and 7000 US soldiers die
BANGKA ISLAND MASSACRE
Ships fleeing Singapore are shelled and bombed survivors swim to Bangka Island. 65 Australian nurses, injured/uninjured soldiers who make it to the beach are machine gunned
SANDAKAN DEATH MARCH
Retreating Japanese force 26,000 Australian soldiers into the jungle without food or water. 65 survive

There are many more. So 25 guilty...



fubar57 said:


> And what would be the reason for Lieutenant Sachinao Kouzu to keep quiet years later?


Again I can't speak with any certain knowledge but human nature. If you had lied, compiled false records and stood by that for years, how anxious would you be to confess. Also keep in mind the "Saving Face" mindset.



FLYBOYJ said:


> US would have had everything to gain by making this information public, especially if it was discovered before the war's end. The taking of Saipan was bloody and costly and this would have been a huge propaganda coup if proven to be true.


Joe, again no special knowledge on my part except speculation. Pre-war I can only repeat the words of Navy Secretary Swanson:
“*This is a powder keg,” replied Swanson. “Any public discussion of it will cause an explosion. I’m not the only one in this department who feels that she saw activities which she could not have described later and remained alive. To speculate about this publicly probably would sever our diplomatic relations with Japan and lead to something worse*.”
AND if Earhart was collecting intelligence, even white, FDR was involved. Could have been his Watergate.
During the War no access to witnesses behind Japanese lines PLUS Earhart's loss was already "officially" a crash and sink and with the war raging not really a concern.
Post-war I would say that Swanson's quote again applies. The US wanted a viable ally and trading partner in post-war Japan and Earhart/Noonan had been dead for 8 years. Let sleeping dogs lie as it were.



vikingBerserker said:


> If they had been captured I would have a hard time believing the Emperor was not informed.


While the Emperor was the titular head of state the military was running the country and, in effect, the Emperor. There has always been a great deal of debate over what Hirohito knew, did not know, did, or did not do. His status with the Japanese people made him untouchable and any attempt to punish him would have brought about a general revolt as MacArthur well knew.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 10, 2017)

Mike,

I think those numbers apply only to the International War Crimes Tribunal for the Far East for Class A war crimes. There were plenty of other war crimes trials activities. According to Japanese records, 5,700 Japanese individuals were indicted for Class B and Class C war crimes. Of this number, 984 were sentenced to death; 475 received life sentences; 2,944 were given more limited prison terms; 1,018 were acquitted; and 279 were never brought to trial or not sentenced. The number of death sentences by country is as follows: the Netherlands 236, Great Britain 223, Australia 153, China 149, United States 140, France 26, and Philippines 17. Still not large numbers given the atrocities committed but there's little doubt that a proportion of those who were guilty died during the war (and, undoubtedly, some that never faced justice). 

The quote from Swanson is another of those "I know a guy who knows a guy" quotes that can't be proven, and even if it were it simply states his belief that she may have seen something...but we still don't have a clue about what that something might be. Governments make complaints about each other all the time. While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later. 

The "ooops, we killed them" theory is pretty sketchy given the alleged efforts expended by Japan to recover Earhart and Noonan. It's far more probable that, if Japan had them AND had evidence of spying, that they'd flaunt it for the world to see...if nothing else to embarrass Roosevelt (if, as you indicate, this would have been his Watergate). 

I think we're going round and round in circles on this. The lack of any tangible evidence beyond the items recovered by TIGHAR, none of which is positively attributable to Earhart or Noonan, puts this firmly in the conspiracy theory category. People will continue to believe it as long as there's a market for sensational stories, irrespective of how illogical or ill-founded they may be.

Cheers,
Mark

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## fubar57 (Jul 10, 2017)

It's going to the dogs now.........

Researchers think they know where Amelia Earhart died after History Channel suggested she may have lived

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## stona (Jul 10, 2017)

I find myself in the position where I can only agree with TIGHAR, which isn't something I can often say 
Cheers
Steve


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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

There is better and more first person evidence that Elvis is alive and living in Argentina than there is that the Japanese captured and killed the pair. Just shows that there are believers for any theory no matter how wild. I would have to agree TIGHAR is the most logical and believable at the moment, but so far, no one has come up with irrefutable evidence as to their fate.


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## mikewint (Jul 10, 2017)

buffnut453 said:


> think those numbers apply only to the International War Crimes Tribunal for the Far East for Class A war crimes.


 Three died during trial. The other 25 were found guilty. Of those, 7 were hanged and 18 were sentenced to prison terms, but were pardoned by 1958. In 1959, Japan’s Emperor Hirohito ordered the names of the war criminals added to a shrine in Tokyo where Japanese have traditionally memorialized their fallen fighters.
“I have a special appreciation for the families of our war criminals,” Hirohito said in a benediction. “I know what they have done for Japan. They were among our greatest leaders.” Subsequent Japanese leaders have visited the shrine but claim they are not honoring war criminals, just fulfilling their obligations to the dead.
Different definition of "Great" 
Historians estimate Japan killed 3 to 14 million civilians during the course of the war



buffnut453 said:


> While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later.


Yup, which is why all this has started to surface



buffnut453 said:


> I think we're going round and round in circles on this. The lack of any tangible evidence


Agreed, while I'm not totally convinced, as I posted before, there is too much smoke not to have a gun firing somewhere so I find the evidence thus far very compelling.
The very goal of "Conspiricy Theory" is to make it seem ridiculous/far fetched/crazy and the people promoting it to be "nutcases" the perfect cover. WHO in their right mind would believe:
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military created and approved a plan called Operation Northwoods that would allow for acts of terrorism on U.S. soil in order push Americans into supporting a war against Cuba.
President Kennedy ultimately rejected the plan that involved the killing of innocent Americans by shooting them on the streets, sinking boats carrying refugees fleeing Cuba, violent terrorism to be executed in Washington, D.C., Miami, and more, framing people for bombings they did not commit, and planes being hijacked.

A CIA program called MKUltra was a plan devised to develop biological and chemical weapons capability during the Cold War. The CIA ended up using the plan as a means to take advantage of drugs, electronics, hypnosis, sensory deprivation, verbal and sexual abuse, and torture to conduct experimental behavioral engineering experiments on subjects. The program made its way into 80 different institutions including universities, hospitals, prisons, and pharmaceutical companies.
CIA Director Richard Helms had the majority of the MKUltra files destroyed in 1973, however, and so much of what occurred during these experiments remains unknown. Not one person was brought to justice either. Nonetheless, according to the Church Committee, at least two American deaths can be attributed to this program.
In 1995, President Clinton issued a formal apology on behalf of the U.S. government for the MKUltra program.

From 1920 to 1933 the US banned the sale and production of all alcohol, driving a huge underground movement of hidden speakeasies. In an attempt to enforce the ban, the American government poisoned alcohol which resulted in the death of around 700 people.

Between 1932 and 1972 the United States Public Health Service gave 400 poor African-American men syphilis in order to monitor its progression. The aim was to see if the fatal disease behaved differently in black and white men. The men were given wrong and potentially dangerous treatments and medication was sometimes withheld altogether in order to learn more about the STD.
Initially supposed to last just six months, the study continued for 40 years.
Only 74 of the men were still alive by the end and shockingly 40 wives and 19 children had also contracted the disease as a result.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

And those numbers and the programs revealed prove the point. Even horrific home grown atrocities are exposed. For this relatively minor happening to have remained secret so long suggests there is no secret to reveal, just a lot of unknowns to answer.

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## mikewint (Jul 10, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> irrefutable evidence as to their fate.


Robert we're dealing with human here so do we have irrefutable evidence the Earth is a globe?

And speaking of Conspiracy Theory. Would the President of the United States be involved?...Never...Never...Ever..How crazy to believe 
In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson told the public that Vietnamese forces attacked US ships in the waters of the Gulf of Tonkin.
American warships fired over 300 shells
This sparked outrage from the American citizens which escalated the Vietnam War and Congress passed The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution allowing US forces to strike against North Vietnam.
More than three million lives were lost in the conflict.
In 2005 documents were released proving that Johnson had fabricated the Gulf of Tonkin incident in order to justify attacking North Vietnam.

And you think the government would get all upset over two people

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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

Very true!


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## fubar57 (Jul 10, 2017)

At least with the dogs it will be yea or nay. If....if they find bones and if...if DNA can be extracted, there will be results. With this photo "evidence" presented on the "History" Channel, I'm thinking the final statement of the show will be...(Probably one of the Duck Dynasty guys will be narrating) ".....you be the judge..." On a side note, conspiracy wise, the Kennedy Assassination Papers may or may not be released this year though with CIA and other government agencies heavy hands at censoring, they probably look like this...

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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

Sounds about right! And I hear area 51 is opening for tours next year, however you will have to wear a hood over your head, have your hands and legs shackled, and ear muffs will be required. Upon getting on the tour bus you will be gassed into unconsciousness, given the tour, then returned and hopefully wake up. Tour done!


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 10, 2017)




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## buffnut453 (Jul 10, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Three died during trial. The other 25 were found guilty. Of those, 7 were hanged and 18 were sentenced to prison terms, but were pardoned by 1958. In 1959, Japan’s Emperor Hirohito ordered the names of the war criminals added to a shrine in Tokyo where Japanese have traditionally memorialized their fallen fighters.
> “I have a special appreciation for the families of our war criminals,” Hirohito said in a benediction. “I know what they have done for Japan. They were among our greatest leaders.” Subsequent Japanese leaders have visited the shrine but claim they are not honoring war criminals, just fulfilling their obligations to the dead.
> Different definition of "Great"
> Historians estimate Japan killed 3 to 14 million civilians during the course of the war
> ...



Smoke can indicate but it can also obscure. Undoubtedly there isn't a nation on the planet whose various governments through the ages have not engaged in some form of heinous skullduggery on behalf of or even against their own citizens. You cite several examples above but, in each case there is some clearly defined rationale for the event/activity, no matter how twisted or sick the logic. Also, most such crimes do eventually come to light in archives, personal contemporaneous records etc. 

We also need to be careful about how facts are couched. For example, in your alcohol poisoning example, the work was carried out on industrial alcohol that was being stolen by bootleggers. Now, there were certainly better alternatives but one can see the logic of the argument that if people didn't break the law, they wouldn't get hurt. It seems wildly extreme by today's standards but there is a thread of logic there, and it wasn't like the Government was poisoning bottles of Jack Daniels...at least not directly. 

Going back to Earhart, I truly think there's WAYYY more smoke than fire here. For any of the potential Earhart conspiracy theories to be true, there would simply HAVE to be some contemporaneous document SOMEWHERE, in the US or Japan, to augment the hearsay accounts. After more than 30 years of delving into the archives by various researchers, no such evidence has come to light. I find it highly implausible that it was so sensitive that all documents would be destroyed...not when evidence of Astor's spying or any of the other examples you cite DID survive. 

As for "conspiracy theories" being synonymous with crackpots, there's some history there I'm afraid - and plenty of it, to include those who believe Sandy Hook was faked. I'm all for re-evaluating history based on new evidence...but there has to be some real, solid evidence presented and not just hearsay. The same "fact" repeated 200 times does not make that "fact" any more real. In the intelligence game, it's called circular reporting where a single report gets repeated by several organizations, lending it a credibility that simply isn't there. Third-hand reporting of statements by people who can't correct the record does not, under any circumstances, represent credible evidence...and a greater volume of incredible evidence does not make a theory or argument any stronger. Unfortunately, many do not evaluate information critically, a problem that's getting worse and worse in the so-called "information age" when we're failing to teach our kids critical thinking skills in the era of immediate "fake news".

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## buffnut453 (Jul 10, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Sounds about right! And I hear area 51 is opening for tours next year, however you will have to wear a hood over your head, have your hands and legs shackled, and ear muffs will be required. Upon getting on the tour bus you will be gassed into unconsciousness, given the tour, then returned and hopefully wake up. Tour done!



The Scene: RAF Lyneham Officers' Mess, Oxfordshire, England

The Year: 1990

Two Herc navigators were sitting quietly in the bar one Friday Happy Hour, away from the main group of drinkers who were letting their hair down at the end of the week. Each of the 2 navs wore a pointed hat made of tin foil. The Station Commander, intrigued by their odd (even by Herc aircrew standards) behavior, walked over and asks "Ok chaps, I have to know. Why the hats?" The navigators paused their drinking, fixed their eyes on "Harry Staish" and declared solemnly, "So you can't steal our thoughts, sir." They then lowered their eyes and resumed their pints without saying another word. The Station Commander, entirely nonplussed, walked away shaking his head.

Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you!

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## Robert Porter (Jul 10, 2017)

Years ago a co-worker told me that he and a college friend went out for drinks wearing tinfoil hats and wearing rabbits feet on straps on their wrists. He said no one asked them a thing about it. He was not sure which disturbed them more, that no one asked or that no one needed to ask.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 10, 2017)

mikewint said:


> buffnut453 said:
> 
> 
> > While the US needed Japan as an ally postwar, I have a really hard time believing anything Earhart and Noonan did could possibly impact international relations decades later.
> ...



There were always communists in the 1930s, like Richard Sorge and Hotsumi Ozaki as journalists, behind the conflicts between Japan and the U.S. to drive them into the war. Situation would resemble if the alliance got broken.
Good point, Mike.


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## Peter Gunn (Jul 11, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Sounds about right! And I hear area 51 is opening for tours next year, however you will have to wear a hood over your head, have your hands and legs shackled, and ear muffs will be required. Upon getting on the tour bus you will be gassed into unconsciousness, given the tour, then returned and hopefully wake up. Tour done!



So I see you've taken the tour then.

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## gumbyk (Jul 11, 2017)

The photo is looking less like evidence now...

In an English-language post, the blogger explains that "the photograph was first published in Palau under Japanese rule in 1935, in a photo book ... So the photograph was taken at least two years before Amelia Earhart disappear[ed] in 1937 and a person on the photo was not her."
The photo book in question was digitized and published online by Japan's National Diet Library. The publication date is listed in the traditional Japanese style as "Showa 10" — that is, 1935.

Japanese Blogger Points Out Timeline Flaw In Supposed Earhart Photo

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## Shortround6 (Jul 11, 2017)

Well that explains what Earhart and Noonan found that was so important that it had to be suppressed for over 80 years.
.
.
.
.
.
.

TIME TRAVEL!!!


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## Robert Porter (Jul 11, 2017)

Oh great! Another of my hiding places and methods for my 1 to 1 stash blown.... So much for hiding them in the past....


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## buffnut453 (Jul 11, 2017)

Can I interest you in one of these? A nice runner, very reliable. Going cheap Only a few millennia on the clock...


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## Old Wizard (Jul 11, 2017)

Darn! I was looking forward to another new documentary about her this Sunday.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 12, 2017)

Thanks for the info, gumbyk


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## stona (Jul 12, 2017)

gumbyk said:


> The photo is looking less like evidence now...
> 
> "the photograph was first published in Palau under Japanese rule in 1935, in a photo book ... So the photograph was taken at least two years before Amelia Earhart disappear[ed] in 1937 and a person on the photo was not her."



I thought the photo was suspicious....but for entirely the wrong reasons.

Once again an entire programme built on so called evidence that could have been disproved with some proper research.

Maybe the History Channel should stick to it's normal nonsense about aliens and submarines to Argentina and leave real history to someone else.

Incidentally, I think Airframes was right all along, the photo clearly shows Fred and Ginger visiting the set of South Pacific at least twenty years after Earhart's demise.

Cheers

Steve


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## parsifal (Jul 12, 2017)

Shinpachi said:


> After checking the logs, my impression is that Imperial Japanese Navy was not serious about discovering Earhart and her partner in the huge Pacific Ocean. Japanese ships were busy about their daily routine, after all.
> 
> The log of IJN special-service ship Koshu (特務艦　膠州) with reference code: C11083156000 & C11083156100 & C11083156300 & C11083156400 at JACAR tells -
> 
> ...



thankyou Shinpachi. very informative. it should be noted the Japanese were meticulous record keepers. For me this is proof enough....Earhart was never a guest of the IJN

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## Robert Porter (Jul 12, 2017)




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## stona (Jul 12, 2017)

I see that Shawn Henry of the History Channel is now on the record saying
_"I think the evidence that we've collected thus far in totality says that Noonan and Earhart landed in the Marshall Islands. I think that that's true." _
This despite the doubts (to put it mildly) about the provenance of their discovered photograph, the original of which they didn't bother to look for. Had they found it they would have discovered when it was taken, or at least published.
I suppose when you've got egg on your face the best thing is to ignore it and hope nobody else notices 
Cheers
Steve

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## Robert Porter (Jul 12, 2017)

I am familiar with the feeling of egg on my face, not enjoyable, but it has taught me to be somewhat more careful before I pass on info without checking. Still happens, just not as frequently. Now how do you like your eggs, over medium, scrambled, sunny side up? I can serve em any way you want! The redness of my face always insures they are correctly cooked!


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## Robert Porter (Jul 12, 2017)

Anyone else noticing weird stuff happening with the forum like the word New being prepended to posts?


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 12, 2017)

History Channel’s Amelia Earhart Story Quickly Unravels

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## stona (Jul 12, 2017)

How difficult would it have been for the History Channel's team of so called researchers to check the photograph? Not very.

As Japanese military history blogger Kota Yamano noted in a July 9 post, he found the book [containing the photograph] after searching the National Diet Library, Japan's national library, using the term "Jaluit Atoll," the location featured in the photograph._ “The photo was the 10th item that came up,” _he said in an interview with the Guardian_. “I was really happy when I saw it. I find it strange that the documentary makers didn’t confirm the date of the photograph or the publication in which it originally appeared. That’s the first thing they should have done.”_

No sh*t Sherlock 

Just how quickly and easily the whole nonsense of a story has unraveled is also revealing. It was shoddy work done by shoddy or dishonest research which didn't even last a week in the light of day. It's pathetic. 

Cheers

Steve


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 12, 2017)

Well obviously they flew through a worm hole the Japanese had created at their secret base that is never mentioned in any paperwork, that's the reason why they and the wreckage were never found.

That photo just confirms it.......................


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## stona (Jul 12, 2017)

As a cautionary note regarding witness accounts, I would draw attention to the number of people who have emerged from the woodwork claiming to have seen Earhart or Noonan on Saipan *SINCE* the now discredited photograph appeared. I suspect they will all now gracefully retire back into the woodwork 
Cheers
Steve

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## Robert Porter (Jul 12, 2017)

But but but I seen it on the internet AND TV... it HAS to be true! Cousin momma sister said to ask uncle brother daddy if I did not believe it!


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## stona (Jul 12, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> But but but I seen it on the internet AND TV... it HAS to be true! Cousin momma sister said to ask uncle brother daddy if I did not believe it!



This is what really grinds my gears about the whole episode. It gave credence to the Marshall Islands/ Saipan story which is hardly new (see Campbell's nonsense in 'Amelia Earhart: The Truth at Last). Unfortunately the unraveling of the story, which was predicated on that photograph, some thoroughly unreliable recollections, and other baseless conjecture, will do nothing to remove from people's minds the idea that Earhart and Noonan fell into the hands of the Japanese and suffered an unfortunate fate in their hands. It doesn't help that this panders to some nasty and unjustified prejudices about the Japanese.
The producers admitted the pivotal role of the photograph in their argument when one of the researchers for the programme told the Washington Post

_“When you look at the totality of what we put together and then hold that photograph. …* I think that photograph is as close to a smoking gun as you’re going to have in a cold case that’s 80 years old,”
*_
My bold.

Well it isn't a smoking gun, it is provably bogus, but, as you say, there are certain people who will believe it because they watched a two hour documentary on the History Channel that said it was so. How long will the rebuttal be? Will they apologise? they show no signs of doing so yet.
All the programme makers have done so far is issue the following statement

_“HISTORY has a team of investigators exploring the latest developments about Amelia Earhart and we will be transparent in our findings. Ultimately, historical accuracy is most important to us and our viewers.”_

The last sentence actually made me laugh out loud! (I had just read that the programme makers reversed their image of Noonan to make the hairline match that of the man in the infamous photograph, so much for objectivity.)

Just to clarify, I don't know what happened to Earhart and Noonan. I'm pretty sure that they were never in Japanese hands. I suspect, simply based on the probabilities, that they went into the Pacific Ocean, which means that TIGHAR have got it wrong as well. I doubt that we will ever know for sure. The one thing I am sure about is that none of them, Campbell, Gillespie (TIGHAR), or any of the others are just one piece of evidence away from proving their pet theory, but while they can find mugs to finance their efforts I'll wish them good luck.

Cheers

Steve


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## mikewint (Jul 12, 2017)

ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited. It's truly amazing how so many of you jump with total belief and vindication glee on that ONE negative finding that supports your belief but reacted with total disbelieving disdain and ridicule when the one positive finding (photograph) was first presented.
Personally the photograph was never a serious piece of evidence especially in today's digital world where photographs are so easily altered. Likewise the blurry indistinct Earhart figure was only suggestive. I was more impressed with the Noonan-figure. Though blurred as well facial features and hairline very very close matches.
So my opinion is unchanged, photograph or not. There is too much other circumstantial and documented evidence present not to give credence to the Earhart/Marshall Island/capture scenario.

Actual documents show that Earhart's Electra had 1156 gallons of fuel on board at take off and at the estimated burn rate she had easily 4 - 5 hours of flying time remaining when she arrived in the vicinity of Howland (IF she was in that vicinity). The running low on fuel messages were not that her tanks were empty but that she had used up her "search for Howland" allotment. Turning west and heading for the Gilberts (her documented back-up plan) meant the end (most likely) of her round the world attempt. A bad landing, plane damage, possible injuries, etc. in such a remote location would have doomed the attempt hence her panic. I think that TIGAR's scenario has some validity but the Mili Atoll and capture scenario has so much anecdotal evidence from so many sources that I cannot simply dismiss it out of hand.

IMHO Fred Noonan is the key to the entire mystery. Earhart only flew the plane. Noonan had to determine WHERE they were in the vast Pacific ocean. But at the same time Earhart had to follow his directions and Earhart had no navigational skills. On an earlier leg when approaching Africa they were supposed to land at Dakar. Noonan offset his course to the north and told Earhart to turn south she instead turned North. Fortunately over land, they "found" St.Louis, Sengal missing Dakar by 120 miles.
Radio Direction Finder
Bendix D-Fs are designed to operate in conjunction with Bendix Type RA-1 receiver, but will also give accurate and dependable bearings when used with any standard radio receiver covering the desired frequency range. The Bendix company specs put these within the frequency range of 200–1500 kilocycles.

Where Earhart got the idea that her direction finder could cover “from 200 to 1500 and 2400 to 4800 kilocycles” is not clear, but the signals she requested on 7500 kilocycles were far beyond even those limits.

In a system using only the Western Electric receiver with a Bendix coupler unit, any change of reception frequency and/or antenna functions from communications to D/F would involve complex switchology: changing bands, considerable cranking of the coffee-grinder receiver control head, as well as tuning the Bendix coupler.
There were always two positions of the loop antenna that produced a null, one pointed toward the radio station, while the other pointed 180 degrees away from the radio station. The two null points were potentially confusing. To resolve she must know the general direction of the transmitter. The loop antenna on Howland Island and the one on board Itasca would each have two nulls. Accordingly, for resolution, radio operators would need to know the direction from which the aircraft is approaching. 

Earhart had requested a DF system be placed on Howland and had likely assumed that the DF that had been installed at Howland in response to the suggestion made earlier by Noonan and herself was a functional equivalent of a PAA-Adcock system that she was familiar with.
Unfortunately the direction finder station on Howland Island actually consisted of an aircraft type radio receiver and an aircraft type rotatable loop antenna which had been “hay-wired” together into a temporary DF installation. It operated off storage batteries borrowed from Itasca. The receiver and loop had been “moon-light requisitioned” from a Navy patrol plane at Fleet Air Base, Pearl Harbor.

The equipment appears to have been a military version, of the Bendix receiver and loop in the Earhart plane. At any rate, with a loop antenna, it certainly was not a high frequency direction finder and the probability of taking meaningful bearings with it on 3105 kHz over any significant distance, was practically nil. The Howland DF operator [Radioman 2nd Class Frank Cipriani] had only two opportunities to try taking a bearing on the plane, and in each case the plane’s transmission was so short that a really good attempt could not be made.

Back to Fred Noonan, he offsets the heading to the north. By happenstance, cumulative navigation errors turn out to be near the extreme left of the direct course taking the flight outside the range of the DF. At the ETA for the 157/337 LOP, Noonan calls for a turn toward the south onto a heading of 157 degrees. 

After some period of time on that heading Amelia Earhart concludes that the flight should be inside the DF’s range, but gets no joy on the radio. Both Fred Noonan and Amelia Earhart are unaware that, because of multiple critical issues, no usable DF existed either at Howland Island or on Itasca.

Amelia Earhart then concludes that Fred Noonan's landfall offset was to the wrong side and Howland lies to the north. As pilot-in-command, Amelia Earhart decides to reverse direction to 337 degrees and flies toward the north, away from Howland.

The Itasca operators transmitted on 3105 asking Earhart to send on 500 kilocycles so the ship’s low frequency direction finder could get a fix on her. Obviously no one on Itasca knew that Earhart did not have the equipment to broadcast on 500 kilocycles, BUT her DF could have RECEIVED on this frequency but Itasca was listening not broadcasting

At 0512, Earhart’s voice “WANT BEARINGS ON 3105 KILOCYCLES ON HOUR. WILL WHISTLE IN MICROPHONE.

The only high-frequency direction finder available that could take a bearing on 3105 kilocycles was the Navy set ashore on Howland and Earhart wasn’t staying on the air long enough for him to get a fix. The whistling into the mike helped, but it was too short as well. Another important factor was that the wet-cell batteries that powered the direction finder were the wrong type and were beginning to run down.

At 0545 “PLEASE TAKE A BEARING ON US AND REPORT IN HALF-HOUR. I WILL MAKE NOISE IN MICROPHONE. ABOUT 100 MILES OUT.” Still more whistling. On Howland, Cipriani made a note on his log: “Her carrier is completely modulated. I cannot get a bearing.”

At 0757, still on 3105 kilocycles, Amelia’s voice“WE ARE CIRCLING BUT CANNOT SEE ISLAND. CANNOT HEAR YOU. GO AHEAD ON 7500 KILOCYCLES ON LONG COUNT EITHER NOW OR ON SCHEDULE TIME OF HALF-HOUR”

The Itasca operators looked at each other in amazement. Now Earhart was trying to use her own direction finder, but none of them had any idea it ranged to 7500 kilocycles. Quickly the Itasca transmitter (Morse Code) began to pour forth a stream of letter “A’s” on the suggested frequency.

Almost immediately, at 0803, Amelia replied, “WE RECEIVED YOUR SIGNALS BUT UNABLE TO GET MINIMUM. PLEASE TAKE BEARING ON US AND ANSWER ON 3105 KILOCYCLES.” This time she made long dashes by depressing the microphone button, but still the Howland direction finder could not get a bearing. Cipriani shook his head in desperation. The batteries were almost completely discharged.

At 0843, “WE ARE ON THE LINE OF POSITION 157 DASH 337. WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE ON 6210 KILOCYCLES. WE ARE NOW RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH.”

Amelia was switching to her daytime frequency. Itasca‘s operators immediately monitored 6210 kilocycles but were greeted with nothing but static. It was their last radio contact.

Commander Thompson to his credit raised Itasca’s anchor at 1040 hours. He spent the first night chasing meteors which he mistook for flares. However, given Noonan’s professional reputation, Thompson should have searched initially along Noonan’s Line-of-Positioning (LOP) as radioed by Earhart. Why would you adopt any other starting point? The search should have been conducted during daylight hours only, whilst at night the cutter should have hove to, allowing the two-knot current to equally carry both vessel and downed aircraft (assuming it was still afloat) in the same direction. Thompson instead searched an arc a good hundred miles east of the Noonan’s LOP. Why he thought that Noonan could wander off course this far is hard to fathom, for such would have required an error around nine times Noonan's proven maximum error and Earhart had radioed that she was flying North, along the 157-337 LOP. History will never know why Commander Thompson looked so far elsewhere.

For those of you who favor the “Open Ocean Ditching” scenario (which I find to be possible but WHY when you have fuel for 4 - 5 hours) note that the swell was uncharacteristically calm around Howland that morning, so the chances are that Earhart ditched successfully. While the Electra had a positive buoyancy of about 2,400 Kg the center of buoyancy was well aft of the engines, meaning that shortly after ditching the Electra would have nosed downwards. The cockpit would soon have flooded, forcing the tail higher and making it difficult to reach the dinghy and all the emergency gear stored aft. Unless Earhart and Noonan were able to secure and clamber into the raft, they would not have survived long under such conditions. Given all other factors, neither would have the Electra. What happened in the first day of the search was crucial. Days and more days were wasted as Commander Thompson and Itasca wandered purposely, yet increasingly distant from the Electra – assuming it remained afloat. Perhaps the two crew made it into their raft and then drifted into a prolonged death through exposure.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 12, 2017)

mikewint said:


> ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited. It's truly amazing how so many of you jump with total belief and vindication glee on that ONE negative finding that supports your belief but reacted with total disbelieving disdain and ridicule when the one positive finding (photograph) was first presented.



Mike - you can't have a partial conspiracy theory, it's all or nothing. I'm sorry but everything you've presented so far is based on assumptions, here say and speculation. Personally I have an easier time buying into some of the Kennedy Assassination theories then I do buying into this. Go back a few pages and read some of the other pages that slams shut the "Japanese Theories" and shows quite clearly that she just ran out of fuel, probably ditched and probably survived a few days. As you're so quick to jump on the Japanese Prisoner bandwagon, consider this...

Mystery Deepens Over Bones Linked to Amelia Earhart

Exclusive: Bone-Sniffing Dogs to Hunt for Amelia Earhart's Remains

Go back to pages 9 - 11 of this thread and a lot of what you're bringing up was previously discussed.

Earhart's Plane Found?!

Here's another link showing that she actually asked the Japanese permission to overfly their territory during 1936

Earhart's Plane Found?! | Page 10 | WW2Aircraft.net Forums

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## Robert Porter (Jul 12, 2017)

mikewint said:


> ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited.


But it is not just one piece of evidence. The photo takes out the whole issue of the ship supposedly used to transport them and tow their plane. That photo was the keystone to the whole house of cards, when it went all the rest of the related evidence went with it. Of the facts in actual evidence no one is in dispute. It is how those facts were woven together to support a massive concoction that is in dispute. Not only has the photo been discredited but so has the the supposed FBI whatever, and the communist woman that tied the whole thing in a nice neat ball. As more and more true investigators are jumping on this more and more of the supposed evidence is turning into well someone I know told me that someone that knew someone else said. 

Like has been stated over and over, heresy evidence is thankfully not admissible. For very good reasons. And 90% of their story was based on just that. And now the 10% of their supposed facts have been shown to be frauds. This is one dead dog, further flogging of it is only going to raise dust.

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## Graeme (Jul 12, 2017)

Still - it was fun looking at head, hairlines and body shapes from old photographs.
Saw this in a book circa 1949.
Did he somehow survive?? A new conspiracy theory? That guy getting his luggage checked also looks suspicious...

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## Shinpachi (Jul 13, 2017)

In fact, how would Earhart and Noonan have been treated by Japanese if they had been captured ?

1931 trans-Pacific flight
Pangborn and Herndon in Japan in 1931

With their eyes on a $25,000 prize, Pangborn and Herndon next decided to attempt the first nonstop trans-Pacific flight. They flew from Siberia to Japan in preparation. In the spirit of documentation, Herndon took several still pictures and 16 mm motion pictures, some of which were of Japan's naval installations. The photography and inadequate documentation to enter the country (which they had not been aware of), the men were jailed. They were eventually released with a $1,000 fine, but they were allowed only one chance to take off in Miss Veedol; if they returned to Japan, the plane would be confiscated and the men would return to prison.
Clyde Pangborn - Wikipedia

This was official news at the time.






Monument in Misawa

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## stona (Jul 13, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Personally the photograph was never a serious piece of evidence especially in today's digital world where photographs are so easily altered. Likewise the blurry indistinct Earhart figure was only suggestive. I was more impressed with the Noonan-figure. Though blurred as well facial features and hairline very very close matches.
> So my opinion is unchanged, photograph or not. There is too much other circumstantial and documented evidence present not to give credence to the Earhart/Marshall Island/capture scenario.
> .



It was the producers of the programme that described the photograph as "near to a smoking gun", not me. I didn't hinge all the pre-show publicity to stump up audience numbers on a bogus photograph, they did. I didn't reverse a photograph of Noonan to match the hairline of an unknown figure, they did. It's bad research and bad history...period.

The circumstantial evidence is just that, and doesn't add up to substantial proof of the Marshall Islands scenario. Some of that has been discredited too.

We will probably never know what happened to the unfortunate pair, but execution or death during imprisonment at the hands of the Japanese would be very close to the bottom of a rational list of possibilities.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Jul 13, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> everything you've presented so far is based on assumptions, here say and speculation





FLYBOYJ said:


> ran out of fuel,


Joe, you are somewhat correct. Unfortunately at this late date speculation and conjecture are all the probably remains. BUT there are some documented sources such as her fuel report that shows 1156 gallons of fuel at take off and at fuel consumption of 42 gallons per hour she had 27 flying hours. So * at *20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining. More than enough to reach a land mass. That of course does not preclude a ditching but does make it a more remote possibility. The permission letter and its written refusal are another smoking gun. She had asked and been denied and then in spite of that did it anyway!! What would THAT say to the Japanese were she captured? To get something labeled as conspiracy is an automatic way to get a majority to discount it, mission accomplished.
It is also strange that every time something concrete is discovered it manages to disappear. Bones have been found 3 times. The skeleton on Nik, bones from a grave on Saipan reported to be Earhart's dug up by two Marines, a brief case found in a safe in Kenpeitat Headquarters on Saipan, and years later bone fragments from that same grave. All vanished after being turned in to higher authorities


FLYBOYJ said:


> quick to jump on the Japanese Prisoner bandwagon


I simply think that it is more credible than having her ditching with hours of fuel remaining. Add to that the Japanese Military take over of the civilian government, Japanese expansionist doctrine, Japanese total blackout of what was going on in the Marshalls, and the prevalent principle of gekokujo within the IJA make a capture and imprisonment likely had she landed within the Marshalls. So that is speculation but so is the ditch and sink scenario. 



Robert Porter said:


> The photo takes out the whole issue of the ship supposedly used to transport them and tow their plane.


No Robert it does not. The photo, if verified would have been documentation of the story Marshallese natives had been telling since after WWII. The Marshall Island stamps were issued long before that photo. The original stories were by actual eye witnesses though now they have become heresay since these men have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today 


Robert Porter said:


> As more and more true investigators


Definition: The people who agree with me...anyone else is a "nutcase"



Shinpachi said:


> In fact, how would Earhart and Noonan have been treated by Japanese if they had been captured ?


Again, like Lindbergh's treatment this is not germane. Pangborn had left on July 27th and landed in Japan on August 8, 1931. The Japanese invasion of Manchuria did not occur until September 18, 1931. The installations photographed by Pangborn were hardly in the same state of war preparations as they would be in 1937. Japan was still a member of the League of Nations and had not withdrawn so it had not been isolated and US embargos had not been imposed. They were dealing with a much different Japan than it would be in 1937 and they were in Tokyo dealing with civilian courts not in an isolated island group dealing with the Kenpeitai.
Not to mention that the principle of gekokujo did not apply in civilian life only to the military who were not trying this case.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 13, 2017)

Mike, everything looks coming from your imagination with less historical reseach by yourself which, I don't know why, you don't want to do.

So, which Japanese ship carried them to Saipan, Mike ?
The Koshu theory has turned out to be Aoki's imagination and it took almost 2 weeks from Jaluit to Saipn by the vessel.
Why didn't IJN use a flying boat to carry if it did not want to hand them over to the U.S. ?
Strange.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 13, 2017)

The Gekokujo was a matter of Manchuria, not in the Pacific.
Kenpeitai had no authority in IJN.

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## mikewint (Jul 13, 2017)

Shinpachi, It is true that I have no "original document" but I believe that this has already been answered.
A fishing boat had picked them up from an island in the Mili Atoll. Taken them to Jalut where the Koshu took them and the plane to Saipan the Military headquarters for the Marshall Islands.
Another scenario was that the pair was taken by Japanese ship to Yap, and then a flight by Japanese Naval Seaplane to Saipan.
As for the Kenpeitai, while it was principally an Army unit, it also discharged the functions of the military police for the IJN under the direction of the Admiralty Minister (although the IJN had its own much smaller Tokkeitai), those of the executive police under the direction of the Interior Minister, and those of the judicial police under the direction of the Justice Minister.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 13, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Another scenario was that the pair was taken by Japanese ship to Yap, and then a flight by Japanese Naval Seaplane to Saipan.



Any evidence ?


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 13, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Joe, you are somewhat correct. Unfortunately at this late date speculation and conjecture are all the probably remains. BUT *there are some documented sources such as her fuel report that shows 1156 gallons of fuel at take off and at fuel consumption of 42 gallons per hour she had 27 flying hours*. So * at *20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining. More than enough to reach a land mass. That of course does not preclude a ditching but does make it a more remote possibility. The permission letter and its written refusal are another smoking gun. She had asked and been denied and then in spite of that did it anyway!! What would THAT say to the Japanese were she captured? To get something labeled as conspiracy is an automatic way to get a majority to discount it, mission accomplished.
> It is also strange that every time something concrete is discovered it manages to disappear. Bones have been found 3 times. The skeleton on Nik, bones from a grave on Saipan reported to be Earhart's dug up by two Marines, a brief case found in a safe in Kenpeitat Headquarters on Saipan, and years later bone fragments from that same grave. All vanished after being turned in to higher authorities
> n have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today



Mike - there's a lot of assumptions there. First no one knows if she was burning 42 gallons per hour. If she decided to fly rich for engine cooling purposes or had a any type of head wind that blows that out. 5.5 hours of fuel (speculated at the best case) at 130 MPH still doesn't solve anything and the fact that her radio transmissions were heard quite clear by the Itasca proves she was at least close to Howland Island. Back in the beginning of this thread that fact was beat to death.

The fact she was denied permission is irrelevant. There were many pilots trying to break records that were denied civil flight permits during that period. Ever hear of "Wrong Way Corrigan"? 

Mike - I bet there are at least 1000 people in Nashville alone who had seen Elvis.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 13, 2017)

mikewint said:


> No Robert it does not. The photo, if verified would have been documentation of the story Marshallese natives had been telling since after WWII. The Marshall Island stamps were issued long before that photo. The original stories were by actual eye witnesses though now they have become heresay since these men have died. The same is true of the 200 or so people on Saipan who actually saw Earhart and a few of those are alive even today


The photo was the main evidence of the ship in question and was used to "prove" that specific ship was used. Read the book you quote from. That photo WAS their proof. As to the eyewitnesses, it is simply too convenient that the ONLY person they spoke to was the author of this book. She lists no other sources for those eyewitnesses, and living or dead they apparently never came forward to anyone else. Unless you can find an independent verification of their "testimony" it might as well be a figment of the authors imagination. The stamps honestly prove absolutely nothing other than they were well known celebrities of the day which were often used as subjects of stamps.

By real investigators I mean those with degrees in investigative journalism as well as actual trained investigators of which there have been literally 100's that have looked into this. And none of those with established credentials have found anything to support this account. Indeed to the contrary they were unable to find a single eyewitness to come forward. And please don't tell me they would still be intimidated into silence after all this time. At the very least we would expect a death bed confession or two. 

It makes a great yarn, but there is pretty much no solid or even tangential evidence to back this theory up. And I know you are neither under educated nor simple minded, if you take an objective step back and look at the counters to this story that have been published I am sure you would/will come to the same conclusion.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 14, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Japan was still a member of the League of Nations and had not withdrawn so it had not been isolated and US embargos had not been imposed. They were dealing with a much different Japan than it would be in 1937 and they were in Tokyo dealing with civilian courts not in an isolated island group dealing with the Kenpeitai.
> Not to mention that the principle of gekokujo did not apply in civilian life only to the military who were not trying this case.



Even after Japan left the League of Nations in 1933, Japan made efforts to keep good relationships with the western countries. Celebration flight for the coronation ceremony of King George VI by Asahi Shinbun's Kamikaze from Tokyo to London in April 1937 was symbolic. Japan was also glad to participate in Expo 1937 held in Paris during May-November 1937.

The U.S. was not a member of the League of Nations either (why ?) but tightened her watch on Japan since 1933. In 1937 only, the U.S. government frequently asked Japanese government to allow her naval warships to visit Japanese ports. Japanese government accepted them as much as it could but looks tired in the end of the year. What would have happened if Japan had hidden Earhart and Noonan ? Awful to imagine.

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 14, 2017)

Speaking of stamps used for proof...











Long Live the King...

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## stona (Jul 14, 2017)

And there's more; here is just two examples.











How many people claim to have seen these two? Yet for all the investigations, no conclusive evidence has been found for the existence of either. Yeti artefacts* invariably* prove to be from different animals, and as for Nessie, well, she's good for the tourist trade.

Cheers

Steve

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## stona (Jul 14, 2017)

Dorothy Cochrane a curator at the aeronautics department at the National Air and Space Museum was shown the photograph and certainly wasn’t so sure about it, or the 'expert' opinions used in the programme._ “I can't really comment definitively on the photograph, and I don't think [History investigators] can either.”_ She noted that the image is _“kind of a blurry photograph.”_ She was of course merely stating the obvious, just look at the image in question. However, her dissenting view was not included in the programme, which had a different agenda. Her caution has now been vindicated.
Did I mention that this sort of 'history' programme really grinds my gears 
Cheers
Steve

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## Robert Porter (Jul 14, 2017)

People like History channel and the author of the book in question prey, knowingly, on the human desire to have an answer to the unanswered. We have likely all fallen prey to one or another very convincing story on a topic of interest to us. I have had my fair share of things I was sure of only to find out I was mistaken or taken advantage of. It is human nature after all, on both sides. It is sad that certain individuals and companies take advantage of that part of human nature to sell books and promote TV shows but they do. And the more controversial the story the more potential revenue for them. And with the advent of the internet and social media, these stories spread far and wide and very quickly. It is why fact checking sites and debunking sites have shown up all over as well. I would be willing to bet that right now I "know" something that is totally false but I have yet to realize it.

A good writer can weave an very compelling story out of lots of little pieces for both print and TV and that has happened more than once with this particular event in history. Until DNA can be found, or the wreck of the aircraft itself we will probably not know the answer. Even then there may be portions of the tale we will just never know.

Have to run, I have a dinner meeting with Elvis and then I am going dancing with Marilyn Monroe. See you all soon.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 14, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Have to run, I have a dinner meeting with Elvis and then I am going dancing with Marilyn Monroe. See you all soon.



You lucky dog!

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## mikewint (Jul 14, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> First no one knows if she was burning 42 gallons per hour. If she decided to fly rich for engine cooling purposes or had a any type of head wind that blows that out.


Very true but again base on what is actually documented the 42 gph is reasonable and Yea another assunption. Remember, this issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation was made by Kennedy a man who would know. Secondly, again documented, we can apply the plane’s performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight (which would decrease with time) and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane’s climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,156 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion so dropping that to 4 hours still gives her flight time.
Joe, as a pilot would you ditch in the open ocean given a choice or would you stay in the air as long as possible?



FLYBOYJ said:


> There were many pilots trying to break records that were denied civil flight permits during that period


Yes, there were, but none trying to over fly a Japanese territory that they had been keeping as totally restricted as possible for years and had denied everyone access. The very reason Roosevelt was so anxious to find out exactly what they were up to in this area. Based on this another theory is that Earhart never intended to land at Howland but intended to "get lost" thus giving the US Navy an excuse to search in restricted areas. Joe, think militarily. If you had asked a superior permission to do something and been denied and then did it anyway what would be the result? As opposed to doing without asking and asking forgiveness afterward? So Earhart ASKING and being DENIED makes any type of overflight so much worse if/when captured. 



FLYBOYJ said:


> I bet there are at least 1000 people in Nashville alone who had seen Elvis.


Yea, it's the "nutcases" that give conspiracy theory a bad rep. I've been called MUCH worse in my time. I do realize that I can be and possibly am wrong but, IMHO the crash land, rescue, in Japanese hands, imprisonment scenario is highly plausible 



Robert Porter said:


> The photo was the main evidence of the ship in question and was used to "prove" that specific ship was used


In the sense of "prove" I'd have to agree. In Amelia Earhart : The Final Story, Vince Loomis went to considerable efforts to dig out the records of what Japanese ships were in the Marshalls in July 1937. He was trying to confirm what ship his witness, Bilimon Amaron, had boarded and which had been seen carrying the Earhart Electra on its aft deck. His book claims that he was able to determine that the Japanese really did not carry out the search for Earhart they later claimed to have made, because the ships of the "12th Squadron" supposedly used in the search were, in fact, in port in Japan the whole time. The only ship Loomis could come up with anywhere near the Marshalls was the seaplane tender Koshu. She was in Ponape, about 400 miles west of the Marshalls, on July 2, 1937 and arrived in Jaluit in the Marshalls on July 13. Loomis says Koshu then left Jaluit sailing for Saipan

On Jaluit, Bilimon Amaron, a medical corpsman for the Japanese stated that he was taken to the ship, Koshu, in the harbor to treat an American man and woman. The crew of the ship said they picked them [two Caucasians, a male and a female] up between the Gilbert Islands and Mili Island, on a small atoll. "We treated the man – I personally did. The wound on the front side of the head was not very serious, but the wound around the knee was kind of a four-inch cut, inflamed, slightly bleeding; it was infected and had been open for quite a long time. I could not stitch it but used Paraply on the knee. The head wound required only a bandage." Bilimon told his brother at a later time that the man had some false teeth. Fred had taken a bad fall and broke out several teeth a while before the trip and his dentist had made a temporary bridge or plate to use till he got back The Japanese on board told him that the man and woman had run out of fuel and came down near Mili; the man hurt himself when the plane landed.
Later, in 1984, Bilimon provided additional information when he was interviewed about the treatment he’d provided in 1937: …Bilimon Amaron recalled that the Japanese navy had been taking an exercise in the area at the time of the crash. The crewmen of the cargo ship were military, not civilian, he remembered, and there were guards aboard as well. The wounded man and the woman were not being treated as spies, however.
In fact, Amaron found nothing memorable about the event except the race of the marooned pair. He saw no other Caucasians in the Marshalls during those years. At the time, he had never heard of Amelia Earhart. Only much later did he recognize her and Noonan from photographs and realize what he had actually seen that day. .



Shinpachi said:


> The U.S. was not a member of the League of Nations either (why ?) but tightened her watch on Japan since 1933. In 1937 only, the U.S. government frequently asked Japanese government to allow her naval warships to visit Japanese ports. Japanese government accepted them as much as it could but looks tired in the end of the year. What would have happened if Japan had hidden Earhart and Noonan ? Awful to imagine.


League of Nations - 
The League of Nations was an American idea championed by President Woodrow Wilson (a Democrat). However, many Americans feared the League's 10th Article. They believed that this article allowed the League of Nations to force the United States to commit its military and economic power in places that were not beneficial to the country. They also wanted to stick with the country's traditional aversion to international entanglements. Senator Lodge (a Republican) and President Wilson had a bitter mutual antipathy and Lodge was very angry that Wilson had not consulted him and the US Senate (a Senate controlled by the members of the Republican Party who viewed him as both an idealist and a political enemy). Then Wilson had a massive stroke in 1919 that limited his ability to negotiate for the Treaty. Without Wilson to back it, the treaty languished for months until the Senate voted it down 49-35 in 1920.
US tightens her watch - because of Japans increasing militarism and expansion:
During the 1930s, Japan's increasingly expansionist policies brought it into renewed conflict with its neighbors, Russia and China. 
In March 1933, Japan withdrew from the League of Nations in response to international condemnation of its conquest of Manchuria. 
On January 15, 1936, Japan withdrew from the Second London Naval Disarmament Conference because the United States and Great Britain refused to grant the Japanese Navy parity.
In July 1937, a second war between Japan and China began with the Marco Polo Bridge Incident. The attack was condemned by the U.S. and several members of the League of Nations including Britain, France, Australia and the Netherlands. Japanese atrocities during the conflict, such as the notorious Nanking Massacre that December, served to further complicate relations with the rest of the world.
Japan's new military power and willingness to use it threatened Western economic and territorial interests in Asia.
Beginning in 1938, the U.S. adopted a succession of increasingly restrictive trade restrictions with Japan. This included terminating its 1911 commercial treaty with Japan in 1939, further tightened by the Export Control Act of 1940.
Also in 1940 Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, officially forming the Axis Powers.
The Tripartite Pact guaranteed assistance if a signatory was attacked by any country not already involved in conflict with the signatory; this implicitly meant the U.S. The Roosevelt administration would not be dissuaded; believing the American way of life would be endangered if Europe and the Far East fell under military dictatorship. Thus, the United States slowly moved from being a neutral power to one preparing for war.
American warship visits - Again apples and oranges. Your documents are for open visits to open main Island ports not a clandestine over flight of heavily restricted areas and ports
What would have happened - Terrible outrage in the US and severe embargoes which is why they had to be quietly and secretly made to vanish into unmarked graves, 



Peter Gunn said:


> Speaking of stamps used for proof...


Actually no one did offer the stamps as proof of anything except as evidence of how widespread the story and belief in it had become in the Marshall Islands as witness after witness came forth


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## mikewint (Jul 14, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> By real investigators I mean those with degrees in investigative journalism as well as actual trained investigators





Robert Porter said:


> Have to run, I have a dinner meeting with Elvis and then I am going dancing with Marilyn Monroe. See you all soon.


And with an attitude like that you have to question WHY "real" investigators shy away from topics like this? I don't consider you to be uneducated or I-Gor-Ent Neither yet you continually resort to ridicule when things don't match your preconceived notions.
Just as "real" scientists and "investigators" shy away from anything to do with UFOs. They face the same type of pejorative reception and loss of reputation. Not easy to not back the Party Line.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 14, 2017)

mikewint said:


> witness after witness came forth


Yet aside from two accounts from an author trying to peddle his book, no record of those witnesses exists. No police statements, memoirs, diaries, etc. And there are still many people alive today from that time period and/or their families, and none of those witnesses can be found by any recent expeditions. Most credible authors when interviewing witnesses get a documented and witnessed signed statement from their sources. Yet somehow these two authors did not. And one of those authors was supposedly a trained FBI agent that knows without backing evidence eye witness testimony especially after a great deal of time has passed, is the least credible evidence of all.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 14, 2017)

mikewint said:


> you continually resort to ridicule when things don't match your preconceived notions.


I am sorry if you perceived that as ridicule it was meant as humor to relieve a little of the built up tension. And my whole point is I don't have a preconceived notion, I don't know what did or did not happen to them, and I seriously doubt the veracity of this and many other stories that have surfaced over the years.


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## mikewint (Jul 14, 2017)

stona said:


> Did I mention that this sort of 'history' programme really grinds my gears


Will agree with you totally PLUS it makes it so much more difficult for anything else to follow this line.


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## mikewint (Jul 14, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> it was meant as humor


One of Plato’s objections to laughter is germane here, it is malicious. In Philebus (48–50), he analyzes the enjoyment of comedy as a form of scorn. “Taken generally,” he says, “the ridiculous is a certain kind of evil, specifically a vice.” That vice is self-ignorance: the people we laugh at imagine themselves to be wealthier, better looking, or more virtuous than they really are. In laughing at them, we take delight in something evil—their self-ignorance—and that malice is morally objectionable.



Robert Porter said:


> I don't have a preconceived notion


Your very words and post belie that. I don't know either but I am open to all the various theories finding some closer to possible reality than others. Some I consider to be really out there in left field like Earhart being Tokyo Rose or a New Jersey housewife Irene Bolam.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 14, 2017)

Kim Jong-un might be a good guy.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 14, 2017)

mikewint said:


> That vice is self-ignorance: the people we laugh at imagine themselves to be wealthier, better looking, or more virtuous than they really are. In laughing at them, we take delight in something evil—their self-ignorance—and that malice is morally objectionable.


I think that is true, if one is being laughed at. However I was not laughing at you at all so I am not sure I follow. However according to modern psychology, humor and laughter are some of the healthiest emotions. Plato was cool, but he is not all that and a box of crackers.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 14, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Your very words and post belie that. I don't know either but I am open to all the various theories finding some closer to possible reality than others. Some I consider to be really out there in left field like Earhart being Tokyo Rose or a New Jersey housewife Irene Bolam.


Okay, guess I will take your word on that but not sure how you came to that conclusion. Perhaps the same way you came to the conclusion that she was captured by, and subsequently executed by the Japanese. I clearly stated in numerous posts in this thread that I make no claim to any particular belief or story. I find some more believable or at least plausible than others. But not having a specific theory of my own does not mean I have a preconceived idea or notion, in fact at least as I understand the english language and grammatical usage, admittedly poorly, it means the exact opposite?


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## mikewint (Jul 14, 2017)

Shinpachi said:


> Kim Jong-un might be a good guy.


His dog wags its tail and licks his hand..



Robert Porter said:


> not sure how you came to that conclusion.


I guess I jumped to that conclusion because of your strong anti responses to the capture theory and then your resort to ridicule of the people proposing it. I never felt that any of it was directed at me but why impune the character of an unknown author unless you have direct knowledge of his mendacity. I do understand circumstantial evidence and heresay but in certain circumstances it's all you have and when hundreds of people echo essentially the same story you have to at least begin to wonder.
The Ditch in the Ocean Theory may well be the case and while I don't think that it is correct I have never vehemently opposed it or termed its proponents "nutcases". My major objection to it is her documented fuel load and the "time-in-the-air" it would give her calculated by Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment.
Such ridicule bothers me because it closes the door to highly qualified people with reputations to maintain who might otherwise investigate the various theories. It's also the reason so many of the higher echelon witnesses won't commit themselves on paper.
I consider the majority of people on this site to be intelligent, educated, skilled and well above average yet review the tones of their anti-posts: Quod Erat Demonstrandum


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 15, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Very true but again base on what is actually documented the 42 gph is reasonable and Yea another assunption. Remember, this issue was discussed at length with Art Kennedy, who had overhauled her engines prior to the second attempt, and who calibrated her engines with PRATT & WHITNEY factory test equipment. His test cell engine records still exist and barring fuel cell leakage and gross mixture control mismanagement, she had between 4.5 and 5.5 hours of fuel remaining after her 20:14 [8:44 am Howland Time] transmission. This calculation was made by Kennedy a man who would know. Secondly, again documented, we can apply the plane’s performance during its 2,400-mile Oakland to Honolulu flight in March 1937. Records show that the Electra consumed 617 of the 947 gallons it held during the fifteen-hour, fifteen-minute Honolulu flight, for an average per-hour burn rate of 38.97 gallons. Round that off to forty gallons per hour. At Lae, loaded with 200 more gallons (1,200 pounds) the plane was about 800 pounds heavier, add one gallon per hour for the extra weight (which would decrease with time) and another gallon per hour in consideration of the plane’s climb to higher altitudes after leaving Lae. With 1,156 gallons departing Lae, at an average consumption of 42 gph, at 20 hours 15 minutes, she had burned 850.50 gallons of fuel and had close to 6 hours left before fuel exhaustion so dropping that to 4 hours still gives her flight time.
> Joe, as a pilot would you ditch in the open ocean given a choice or would you stay in the air as long as possible?



Mike - you make points but IIRC she flew a north/ south pattern in an effort to find Howland and no one knows how long she did that so even with 5 hours of fuel no one could accurately predict where she would wind up. Take her LKP and calculate a 5 hour flight radius (this was shown earlier) and it still puts her in the middle of nowhere and nowhere close to that threatening and evil Japanese garrison hundreds of miles away manning that threatening and intimidating weather reporting station.



mikewint said:


> Yes, there were, but none trying to over fly a Japanese territory that they had been keeping as totally restricted as possible for years and had denied everyone access. The very reason Roosevelt was so anxious to find out exactly what they were up to in this area. Based on this another theory is that Earhart never intended to land at Howland but intended to "get lost" thus giving the US Navy an excuse to search in restricted areas. Joe, think militarily. If you had asked a superior permission to do something and been denied and then did it anyway what would be the result? As opposed to doing without asking and asking forgiveness afterward? So Earhart ASKING and being DENIED makes any type of overflight so much worse if/when captured.


 Mike, US military ships made port calls. If Roosevelt was that anxious to find out what was in this area he could have sent several B-17s with the most advanced cameras of the day to fly all over the area and no one would have ever known they were there. 

AND you're missing one huge fact - the Japanese held NO territory over the path of her 1937 flight!







Intercepting the “Rex” > National Museum of the US Air Force™ > Display

Mike, get it though your head, there was no interest in this part of the world by the Japanese in 1937. They had their interest in China and Indo-China. 



mikewint said:


> Yea, it's the "nutcases" that give conspiracy theory a bad rep. I've been called MUCH worse in my time. I do realize that I can be and possibly am wrong but, IMHO the crash land, rescue, in Japanese hands, imprisonment scenario is highly plausible


 Mike, I'm pretty open minded but I'm sorry, with a hand full of sketchy and contradicting witnesses, the story doesn't hold water. Ships, transferring through ports, flights on seaplanes, would have left thousands of eye witnesses and despite the discipline within the Japanese military during WW2, if this was indeed true, someone CREDIBLE within the Japanese military would have come forward with the truth after the war. 

Mike - in 1937 there was no reason for the Japanese to capture Amelia Earhart. They had everything to gain by helping in her rescue and everything to lose to do her harm, but let's say they did - it again would have benefited the Japanese to come clean in the post war years considering they did so when unit 731 was uncovered.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 15, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Such ridicule bothers me because it closes the door to highly qualified people with reputations to maintain who might otherwise investigate the various theories. It's also the reason so many of the higher echelon witnesses won't commit themselves on paper.
> I consider the majority of people on this site to be intelligent, educated, skilled and well above average yet review the tones of their anti-posts: Quod Erat Demonstrandum


I would tend to agree that ridicule can be a powerful disincentive, however in this particular case several of the key pieces of evidence including the photo, and the ship in use, have been shown to be frauds, purposely and knowingly perpetrated frauds. Therefor not only ridicule but also scorn is appropriate. Anyone truly interested in the truth would not have committed fraud in furtherance of their goal. 

And lots of people have come forward to support every major theory in this case, according to the various proponents of each theory. Not to mention that literally hundreds of thousands of people claim to have seen everyone from Elvis, to Hitler, to believing strongly that the world is flat. So numbers of people claiming a thing does nothing in my mind to make it more real. 

During the DC Sniper spree, at the first or second shooting, someone "spotted" a white box truck leaving the scene. Within days as the shootings escalated more and more people, in the 1000's, also reported a white box truck leaving the scene. Upon further investigation after the sniper was actually caught the FBI noticed a pattern, people who were not even near the scene were injecting themselves into the investigation with reports and tips that were entirely figments of their imagination out of a desire to be involved. This bit of misinformation, because it was reported and the actual perpetrators heard it reported, they actually began to seek out white box trucks and commit their shootings near them in order to further throw off the police. Time and again stories relayed by 100's of people have been found to be a case of one or two folks that repeated a story over and over and others joined in to feel like they belonged or were a part. The original one or two may have been truthful but the vast majority of the "me toos" were not.

This means to me that I do not actually look at the numbers alone, after all when President Kennedy was shot there were literally 900 direct eyewitnesses and to this day they cannot even agree where they thought the shot came from. Or even how many loud rifle shots there were.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 15, 2017)

American researchers were probably unable to speak Japanese and Japanese journalist who had anti-Japan mind was interested in fame and better income only. Mike, or anybody, have you ever heard of or know anything about this Seikai Maru (or Harumi Maru) ?

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 15, 2017)

I like to think I keep an open mind on (almost) any subject, and the Japanese capture theory has many tantalizing anecdotes. But, none of it is hard, documented evidence and again, and _I can't stress this point strong enough_... *THE JAPANESE HAD NO MOTIVE*. I start to dismiss the argument once there is no hard, documented evidence, and the motive has been removed. At that point, I start seeing straw man arguments.

Mike - I get (and respect) your arguments, and I see that you do have an open mind about it all, but I have to respectfully disagree with the one that the Japanese had anything to do with their disappearance in any way. To me it only makes sense if viewed through the lens of 1937 future history. While it may seem plausible to us, knowing what was on the horizon, that's only if we ignore the state of the world as it was in 1937, and not transpose that knowledge of the postwar era onto prewar events.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 15, 2017)

Just to be very clear, Mike absolutely none of my ridicule is aimed at you. I actually respect both you and your obvious intelligence, and have really enjoyed reading your posts and learned a lot from you. This particular topic is one that I have followed on and off my entire adult life, mostly because I truly am curious about what exactly happened to them. And as I read more and learned more my opinions and beliefs changed over time. One thing I am positive of is this event has such a great deal of interest to the general public even today, that there are many many people trying to profit from that interest. So as time passes I have become very skeptical of theory's with little or no hard evidence to support them and eyewitness testimony is not hard evidence. 

I spent a year on a Grand Jury panel. We met once or twice a week to hear the prosecutor present evidence that we used to make decisions on if we should or should not indict the person or persons being charged. This experience taught me in a way nothing else could about the rules of evidence and what constitutes reliable evidence. And eyewitness testimony is actually rarely considered reliable, in fact the more witnesses the less reliable it becomes. If the only evidence available is eyewitness evidence we rarely returned an indictment as it is impossible to know the motivations or intentions of the possible witness and for serious crimes like murder it is insufficient for most prosecutors to even bring before a grand jury.

There are exceptions of course, but in general most law enforcement folks as well as officers of the court prefer impartial hard evidence to eyewitness evidence. TV shows would have us believe the opposite is true, in fact how many news stations across the country actually use the word "Eyewitness" in the name of their shows? It is a lot! Yet this myth has been largely perpetrated on us from TV and movie writers not because it is a truism. 

So when I hear that the majority of the evidence to an event is eyewitness evidence I immediately stop and look for any supporting documentary evidence and judge the merits of the theory based on the quality and amount of such documentary evidence. 

A great example of this is the famous Woodstock concert, which did not actually happen at Woodstock. It was Bethel in the end on a hay field. It was meant to be at Woodstock but no suitable location was found, then they tried White Hill and one other location but lost permits to both before the concert took place. Yet 1000's of people to this day insist they went to Woodstock, the city. In fact people who attended the concert still show up there today and are stunned to find out the location they actually attended is actually a goodly distance away. Another fun fact is how many people _still _ claim they saw XYZ singer or band perform there that never actually performed there. 

In conclusion stories like this one, lack all of the main elements we look for to verify a tale. Motive is missing, yes you can sort of make a case for motive but it is only when looking with modern eyes and knowledge at the past that it can be made to make sense. In the context of the time it makes no sense.

Opportunity, well depending on how you interpret their fuel consumption and course you can just barely come up with opportunity but a lot of the existing evidence such as radio calls etc would suggest just as strongly there was no opportunity so that becomes a wash.

Means, well the vessel supposedly used, which has never changed in every telling and even supposedly supplied some of the eyewitnesses to these authors, has been proven to not be in the area at the time. And what little documentary evidence has been found is either open to interpretation or in some cases, like the photo, has been found to be not at all applicable and indeed was even used fraudulently. 

So with Motive, means, and opportunity all either missing or weak and open to interpretation, then add the fact that the motives of the author are questionable and that actual intentional fraud has been promulgated by the author and claims made by a supposed highly trained FBI agent are not only heresy but just not something an FBI agent would even entertain in a shop lifting investigation then yes I will ridicule the source.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 15, 2017)

Japanese, and probably Germans too, are familiar with this kind of claims.
Our lesson is "Win the war or don't make the war"

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## stona (Jul 15, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> And what little documentary evidence has been found is either open to interpretation or in some cases, like the photo, has been found to be not at all applicable and indeed was even used fraudulently.



I agree with just about everything in your post, but I don't think the photograph was used fraudulently. I don't think that the programme makers knew it was taken in 1935, so there was no intent to deceive. The fact that they didn't bother to undertake even the most basic historical research to establish the provenance of the photograph, the linchpin of their documentary, illustrates very slapdash programme making and reflects very badly on both the producers and their so called researchers, but I don't think it was done with malice, just with ignorance. 
Had they bothered to thoroughly research the photograph, then they would have had no programme! That does raise the possibility of wilful ignorance, in which case you would have a point. The question is whether we believe that the producers were stupid enough to intentionally not look too hard to discover the real provenance of the photograph because they thought it might not support their contention, or whether they were just stupid, shoddy and slapdash in their historical research. In neither case do they come out smelling of roses.

I'm still awaiting an apology from 'History', but I doubt we'll get one. The programme will probably be repeated, unedited, in years to come.

Did I mention that this sort of thing really grinds my gears 

Cheers

Steve


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## Robert Porter (Jul 15, 2017)

stona said:


> I agree with just about everything in your post, but I don't think the photograph was used fraudulently. I don't think that the programme makers knew it was taken in 1935, so there was no intent to deceive. The fact that they didn't bother to undertake even the most basic historical research to establish the provenance of the photograph, the linchpin of their documentary, illustrates very slapdash programme making and reflects very badly on both the producers and their so called researchers, but I don't think it was done with malice, just with ignorance.
> Had they bothered to thoroughly research the photograph, then they would have had no programme! That does raise the possibility of wilful ignorance, in which case you would have a point. The question is whether we believe that the producers were stupid enough to intentionally not look too hard to discover the real provenance of the photograph because they thought it might not support their contention, or whether they were just stupid, shoddy and slapdash in their historical research. In neither case do they come out smelling of roses.
> 
> I'm still awaiting an apology from 'History', but I doubt we'll get one. The programme will probably be repeated, unedited, in years to come.
> ...


My mistake, I was under the impression that the author of the book also used that photo, in which case it would be fraudulent as even the most basic of fact checking would have turned that fact up. 

It grinds my gears as well! Often thought the Family Guy writers should have attempted a spin off of the what grinds my gears!


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## stona (Jul 15, 2017)

I don't ridicule the programme makers, but I am reminded of the message carried to the Dauphin of France by Henry V's messenger, Exeter, in Shakespeare's play. The Dauphin asks what message the English have for him and receives Henry's opinion of him in this scathing reply.

"Scorn and defiance; slight regard, contempt,
And any thing that may not misbecome
The mighty sender, doth he prize you at.
Thus says my king;..."

He had a way with words that Shakespeare fellow.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Jul 16, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> none of my ridicule is aimed at you


Robert, rest assured, that thought never entered what's still left of my mind. I do however object to it being used aimed at anyone as a counter to a point of contention.



Robert Porter said:


> trying to profit from that interest.


Yea, the American way though again in many cases a legitimate attempt to find a solution. Getting to the "scene of the crime" to do any field work/research/interviews/etc. is very expensive and needs to be underwritten in most cases so now "entertainment value" enters the picture.



Robert Porter said:


> no hard evidence


Yea, it would be a wonderful thing if everyone doing anything illegal/immoral would just document/photograph/record it so we could nail them with it at some point in time. Unfortunately so much of this happens sub rosa for that very reason so circumstantial is all you have. We can differ on whether the Japanese captured and held them but I think we could probably agree that if they did they would not want to announce that to the world community from which they were already being marginalized due to their actions in China/Manchuria/SE Asia. 



Robert Porter said:


> Motive is missing,





Peter Gunn said:


> *THE JAPANESE HAD NO MOTIVE*.


Here we depart. The Japanese were absolutely obsessive about keeping outsiders away from the Mandate. It really doesn't matter if or what was going on or if Earhart/Noonan saw or filmed anything the mere fact that they were there and could have was a guilty verdict especially in such a backwater isolated part of the Empire far removed from any type of civilian control. Then once begun backing up and admitting error is to loose face, not something that's going to happen in Japanese culture. Consider Otto Warmbier, he took a POSTER!!! and the N. Koreans jailed him for a year and a half and somehow he ended up in a coma and died after being released AND No One Don't Know Nothing!!! Think any hard official records still exist?
Motive is a very subjective thing. I kill you 'cause you are Christian. Muslim, Jewish, Blond, Female, White, Black, etc. not to mention the old "in-the-wrong-place-at-the-wrong-time" motive which was Earhart/Noonan's "crime".



Robert Porter said:


> interpret their fuel consumption


I disagree but grant you your point. The amount of fuel loaded at Lea is a hard fact at 1156 gallons. The Electra's fuel consumption from Oakland to Honolulu in March at 38.97 gph is a hard fact. A hard fact detailed engineering report was prepared by a young Lockheed engineer named Clarence L. (“Kelly”) Johnson to provide data for the best takeoff, climb and cruise performance with the very heavily loaded airplane. The maximum speed for the Model 10E Special at Sea Level and maximum takeoff weight was 177 miles per hour (284.9 kilometers per hour), a reduction of 25 miles per hour (40.2 kilometers per hour) over the standard airplane. The maximum range was calculated to be 4,316 miles (6946 kilometers) using 1,151 gallons (4,357 liters) of fuel. Hard fact, Art Kennedy overhauled and calibrated her engines using Pratt & Whitney test equipment after which he gave her 4.5 to 5.5hrs additional flight time after her 20:14 transmission to the Itasca. Now that's not a hard fact but a calculation however Earhart at no time reported a fuel leak and she was well aware of proper mixture settings.



Shinpachi said:


> Seikai Maru (or Harumi Maru) ?


Shinpachi, one problem we will always face here it trying to translate Japanese written/spoken into English written. As you well know there are a number of methods of rendering Japanese in Roman letters. The Hepburn method of romanization, designed for English speakers, is a de facto standard widely used inside and outside Japan. The Kunrei-shiki system has a better correspondence with kana, which makes it easier for native speakers to learn. It is officially sanctioned by the Ministry of Education and often used by non-native speakers who are learning Japanese as a second language. Other systems of romanization include Nihon-shiki, JSL, and Wāpuro rōmaji. I find a Seikai Maru as a gunboat in the battle of the Coral Sea and the Harumi as an Ocean-going tug. 
As to the Log Book it could easily been altered or the captain ordered not to include Earhart/Noonan in it, or even to alter locations and Dates. The captain would not have wanted to disobey the Kenpeitai 



FLYBOYJ said:


> she flew a north/ south pattern in an effort to find Howland and no one knows how long she did that so even with 5 hours of fuel no one could accurately predict where she would wind up. Take her LKP and calculate a 5 hour flight radius (this was shown earlier) and it still puts her in the middle of nowhere


Joe as I understand Noonan's DR methods: Cloudy conditions prevent Him from taking a celestial fix that night. At sunrise he has a sun azimuth of 67 degrees True and an LOP of 337-157. He knows his East/west position from the time of sunrise but not his North/South. He draws a 337-157 LOP on his chart and parallel LOP through Howland. Now that it is daylight he can approximate their ground speed and drift and thus determine the time required to fly the distance between his two LOPs. He tells Earhart they will reach his second LOP at 19:00 GMT. To find Howland they must now fly a ladder search North then South then North again the South further and further each time. Eventually she gives up and turns West towards the Gilbert Islands but she is further North than expected and reaches Mili Atoll instead of the Gilberts as was her back-up plan



FLYBOYJ said:


> could have sent several B-17s with the most advanced cameras


Joe, after the crash of the Model 229 the Army cut its order of the YB-17 to just 13 aircraft the first of which flew on 2 Dec 1936. When its brakes fused and it nosed over the Army quickly transferred all Yb-17s to Langley field Virginia to develop safety protocols and heavy bomber techniques. The YB-17A of which there was only one first flew 29 April 1938 so at the time of Earhart's flight the US heavy bomber fleet was 13 YB-17s. Not to mention the the US could not be MILITARILY interested in the Marshalls thus Roosevelt's use of civilians like Astor. I honestly don't think Earhart was trying to spy but was ask to "Keep her eyes open and camera handy"



FLYBOYJ said:


> there was no interest in this part of the world by the Japanese in 1937.


Actually by this point the Japanese were thinking of a Pacific war and had thus begun to militarize the Marshalls. Ostensibly civilian structures they were constructed to military standards for easy conversion. Thus they had begun building air bases on several atolls. The Marshall Islands were in an important geographic position, being the easternmost point in Japan's defensive ring at the beginning of World War II



FLYBOYJ said:


> it again would have benefited the Japanese to come clean in the post war years considering they did so when unit 731 was uncovered.


If only Governments were so straight forward and honest.
Head Priest Nagayoshi Matsudaira, who rejected the Tokyo war crimes tribunal's verdicts, enshrined the Class A war criminals in the Yasukuni Shrine in a secret ceremony in 1978.
The Yasukuni Shrine's museum and web site have made statements criticizing the United States for "convincing" the Empire of Japan to launch the attack on the United States in order just to justify war with the Empire of Japan, as well as claiming that Japan went to war with the intention of creating a "Co-Prosperity Sphere" for all Asians.
On October 2006, while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed an apology for the damage caused by its colonial rule and aggression, more than 80 Japanese lawmakers from his ruling party LDP paid visits to the Yasukuni Shrine.
On 2 March 2007, the issue was raised again by Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe, in which he denied that the military had forced women into sexual slavery during World War II. He stated, "The fact is, there is no evidence to prove there was coercion." Before he spoke, a group of Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers also sought to revise the Kono Statement (a government study that found that the Japanese Imperial Army had forced women, known as comfort women, to work in military-run brothels during World War II. The Japanese government had initially denied that the women had been coerced until this point.)
On 31 October 2008, the chief of staff of Japan's Air Self-Defense Force Toshio Tamogami was dismissed with a 60 million yen allowance due to an essay he published, arguing that Japan was not an aggressor during World War II, that the war brought prosperity to China, Taiwan and Korea, that the Imperial Japanese Army's conduct was not violent and that the Greater East Asia War is viewed in a positive way by many Asian countries and criticizing the war crimes trials which followed the war.
On 11 November, Tamogami added before the Diet that the personal apology made in 1995 by former prime minister Tomiichi Murayama was "a tool to suppress free speech".


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## Robert Porter (Jul 16, 2017)

mikewint said:


> I disagree but grant you your point.


I snipped the rest of that part of the reply. But this illustrates part of my point. All of the hard facts you spoke of, actually have zip to do with her last leg. In order for those facts to become hard facts she communicated information at the end of each leg as to how she flew etc. Since she never got that chance we have no idea if she ran lean or rich, or if she had other issues like a strong headwind, or problems maintaining altitude because of icing or cloud cover or what. Literally anything could have happened. So to extrapolate past performance, even recent past performance is at best an educated guess and by no means a hard fact. And if you look over the entire history of her last flights, her GPH burn rate varied a lot! Most of the variance was due to environmental conditions. But the point is we don't really know. And we cannot depend on local weather forecasts for her route as not all the areas of her route were observed in that timeframe. Pacific weather is known for its localized volatility in fact, with downpour and gale force winds in one area, and 10 miles away clear skies and gentle wind. 

That is a classic trap that a lot of investigators that are not aviation folks fall into when attempting to figure out the possible endurance of her last leg. And it is something that time and again knowledgable aviators have just shaken their heads and said "we just don't know, for all we know she could have developed a small fuel leak, or lost an engine." (Not a real quote, just an amalgamation of some of the ones I have heard.)

So truly we are left with a good baseline to extrapolate from but no actual hard evidence for her final leg. Or at least not much hard evidence.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 16, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Shinpachi, one problem we will always face here it trying to translate Japanese written/spoken into English written. As you well know there are a number of methods of rendering Japanese in Roman letters. The Hepburn method of romanization, designed for English speakers, is a de facto standard widely used inside and outside Japan. The Kunrei-shiki system has a better correspondence with kana, which makes it easier for native speakers to learn. It is officially sanctioned by the Ministry of Education and often used by non-native speakers who are learning Japanese as a second language. Other systems of romanization include Nihon-shiki, JSL, and Wāpuro rōmaji. I find a Seikai Maru as a gunboat in the battle of the Coral Sea and the Harumi as an Ocean-going tug.
> As to the Log Book it could easily been altered or the captain ordered not to include Earhart/Noonan in it, or even to alter locations and Dates. The captain would not have wanted to disobey the Kenpeitai



I have understood that the researchers didn't check the Seikai Maru.
Thanks.


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## Shinpachi (Jul 17, 2017)

I have checked the Seikai Maru like follows.

Ref code: B10074880000
@JACAR

Dated July 10, 1937
Regarding the search of (Ms) Earhart

To Consulate General Fukuma in Honolulu
From Foreign Minister Hirota (Tokyo)

"In answer of your question No.174, we are sending the Seikai Maru to the Marshall Islands and the special-service ship Koshu toward the estimated flight route of the Earhart plane but no clues at the moment. They will begin search upon arrived at Jaluit on/around July 12....."

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## stona (Jul 17, 2017)

Occam's razor, reasonably summed up in this simple sentence.
_
"Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected."
_
Both the Marshall Islands hypothesis and TIGHAR's hypothesis most definitely do not fit with this definition. The Marshall Island's hypothesis is simply a mountain of assumption, extrapolation and conjecture.
There are a few minute specks of land out there, and we know Earhart didn't make the one she was heading for, and an awful lot of water.

My hypothesis is that Earhart and Noonan got lost (supported by radio traffic and the fact that they certainly didn't find their objective), ran out of fuel (had to happen sooner or later and she reported "gas is running low") and went into the Pacific Ocean (by far the biggest 'target' out there by orders of magnitude). This also conveniently explains why no trace has ever been found of the aircraft or its crew.

Cheers

Steve

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## Shinpachi (Jul 17, 2017)

Agreed Steve.
My impression is that the aftermath was more emotional than rational though I can understand how her family felt.

B10074880000
@JACAR

Sent on September 7, 1937
Arrived on September 8, 1937

To Foreign Minister Hirota
From Consulate General Shiozaki in San Francisco

"On 7th, Mr Edward E. Brodle visited our office as attony of Mr George Plmer Putnam, (Ms) Earhart's husband, to inquire us if Japanese government would be further cooperative for search of his wife. According to Putnam's own research, there is a tidal current of 20mph near the Howland Island toward the Marshall Islands. Putnam thinks there could be any wreckage of her wife's plane in our Mandate. Mr Brodle said all costs should be owed by Mr Putnam. I promised him to inform his request to our government and, at the same time, advised him to contact with his government for the official request to our government."

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## Shinpachi (Jul 17, 2017)

mikewint said:


> American warship visits - Again apples and oranges. Your documents are for open visits to open main Island ports not a clandestine over flight of heavily restricted areas and ports



Saipan, Palao, Augaur (?), Yaluit (Jaluit), Truk and Ponape were open ports though requested permission.
Not heavily restricted in 1937 yet.










Ref code: B04122001000

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## stona (Jul 17, 2017)

Occam's razor again.

The problem isn't just suppositions made in many of the more exotic hypotheses to explain the fate of Noonan and Earhart, it is bad science and mis-reading of history to justify the suppositions.

Nikumaroro Island must be THE prime example. It has been frequented constantly and even settled by humans for periods over the last 200 years that we know of, yet every artefact, shoe heel, wooden box, buck knife etc. is attributed to Noonan/Earhart without any consideration of a more likely provenance. This reflects a general trend in so called 'research' which is well illustrated by the History Channel's photo debacle.

Cheers

Steve

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## Robert Porter (Jul 17, 2017)

Occam's razor was also brought up by me earlier in this thread for the same reasons. When the majority of the supporting evidence for any theory is full of speculation or unrepeatable testimony it is more and more unlikely to be the correct answer. Not impossible, just more unlikely. Also the fact that none of the supposed witnesses came forward on either side of this theory considering far worse atrocities on both sides were discovered and investigated is to me a sign the eyewitnesses were not reliable. Or did not exist. Post war a lot of documents were seized and investigated and many prisoners traded information for reduced sentences or other personal gains. And by the 60's US involvement in many rather unsavory activities in war zones began to come to light. Our society by its more open nature does not tolerate secrets for long. If there is even a whiff of controversy investigative journalists begin to feed at the trough of public opinion. More than one public figure even President can attest to that.

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 17, 2017)

mikewint said:


> *MOTIVE*
> 
> *SNIP*
> 
> Here we depart. *SNIP*



Agreed. While your post has some sound reasoning for speculation, not a lot of it is going to hold much water in a court of law.

I concede it's _possible_ that a backwater commander could have acted out of what he thought was best I just don't see it happening here. She was a world famous aviatrix and the Japanese Government was extending all sorts of offers of help in search and rescue. I guess we agree to disagree and that's cool.

Also, as mentioned before, some pretty horrendous war crimes have come to light post war, but not a shred of evidence on this.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 17, 2017)

Amen.................

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 17, 2017)

mikewint said:


> I disagree but grant you your point. The amount of fuel loaded at Lea is a hard fact at 1156 gallons. The Electra's fuel consumption from Oakland to Honolulu in March at 38.97 gph is a hard fact. *A hard fact detailed engineering report was prepared by a young Lockheed engineer named Clarence L. (“Kelly”) Johnson to provide data for the best takeoff, climb and cruise performance with the very heavily loaded airplane. *The maximum speed for the Model 10E Special at Sea Level and maximum takeoff weight was 177 miles per hour (284.9 kilometers per hour), a reduction of 25 miles per hour (40.2 kilometers per hour) over the standard airplane. The maximum range was calculated to be 4,316 miles (6946 kilometers) using 1,151 gallons (4,357 liters) of fuel. Hard fact, Art Kennedy overhauled and calibrated her engines using Pratt & Whitney test equipment after which he gave her 4.5 to 5.5hrs additional flight time after her 20:14 transmission to the Itasca. Now that's not a hard fact but a calculation however Earhart at no time reported a fuel leak and she was well aware of proper mixture settings.



FYI In 1937 Kelly Johnson didn't have a pilot's license!!!!! This is all calculated data and again you have no data concerning what her actual cruising speeds, head or tail winds, and mixture settings were.



mikewint said:


> Joe as I understand Noonan's DR methods: Cloudy conditions prevent Him from taking a celestial fix that night. At sunrise he has a sun azimuth of 67 degrees True and an LOP of 337-157. He knows his East/west position from the time of sunrise but not his North/South. He draws a 337-157 LOP on his chart and parallel LOP through Howland. Now that it is daylight he can approximate their ground speed and drift and thus determine the time required to fly the distance between his two LOPs. He tells Earhart they will reach his second LOP at 19:00 GMT. To find Howland they must now fly a ladder search North then South then North again the South further and further each time. Eventually she gives up and turns West towards the Gilbert Islands but she is further North than expected and reaches Mili Atoll instead of the Gilberts as was her back-up plan



So right there you contradict your earlier statement and eats up that alleged 5 hour reserve.



mikewint said:


> Joe, after the crash of the Model 229 the Army cut its order of the YB-17 to just 13 aircraft the first of which flew on 2 Dec 1936. When its brakes fused and it nosed over the Army quickly transferred all Yb-17s to Langley field Virginia to develop safety protocols and heavy bomber techniques. The YB-17A of which there was only one first flew 29 April 1938 so at the time of Earhart's flight the US heavy bomber fleet was 13 YB-17s. Not to mention the the US could not be MILITARILY interested in the Marshalls thus Roosevelt's use of civilians like Astor. I honestly don't think Earhart was trying to spy but was ask to "Keep her eyes open and camera handy"


 Mike, if the US so desperately wanted to spy on the Japanese, they had the tools to do it despite the state of the YB-17 fleet in 1937. To think US intelligence would send a woman who didn't even have 1000 hours flying around the world to "Keep her eyes open and camera handy" is ridiculous and on Earhart's behalf I'd say she would have told them she had more important things to worry about!

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## Shinpachi (Jul 18, 2017)

Mike seems to be fond of Kenpeitai. So, I have researched.

*The Kenpeitai in 1936*
According to the Kenpeitai's statistics issued on June 1 1937 (JACAR ref code C05111066800), 45 foreigners were detained as the suspects of illegal photo shooting on the Japanese military fortresses in 1936. They were all released after interrogation with fine as they excused "Oh, I didn't know !". Cameras and films were confiscated.

UK 12
US 12
China 4
France 7
Germany 4
USSR 2
Dutch 1
Turkey 1
Belgium 1
Swiss 1

Total 45

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## mikewint (Jul 18, 2017)

I had no idea that they were such "nice" guys.
Founded in 1881 as the military police of the modernizing Imperial Japanese Army, they were largely unremarkable until the rise of expansionist Japanese imperialism after World War I. The Kempeitai became a brutal organ of the state, *holding jurisdiction over the occupied territories, captured prisoners of war, and subject peoples.* The Kempeitai worked as both spies and counterintelligence agents. They used torture and extrajudicial execution to maintain their power over millions of innocent people. When Japan surrendered, *many documents were deliberately destroyed by the Kempeitai,* so the true scale of their atrocities may never be known.

In 1932, the Kempeitai took complete control of organized prostitution for the military, building military brothels with barracks or tents used to house women who were forced into service. They were imprisoned behind barbed wire and guarded by Japanese or Korean yakuza. Railway cars were also used as mobile brothels. Girls as young as 13 years old were forced into prostitution, with prices varying depending on ethnic origin and whether the clients were commissioned officers, noncommissioned officers, or privates. Japanese women fetched the highest fees, followed by Koreans, Okinawans, Chinese, and Southeast Asians. Caucasian women were also forced into service during the war. It is believed that up to 200,000 women were forced to sexually service up to 3.5 million Japanese soldiers. The women were kept in appalling conditions and received little to no money, despite being promised 800 yen a month for their “service.”There are still many questions about Japan’s use of comfort women, as there was a great degree of secrecy, as well as destruction of evidence. In 1945, the British Royal Marines captured Kempeitai documents in Taiwan that detailed how the prisoners were to be dealt with in the case of an emergency: *Whether they are destroyed individually or in groups, or however it is done, with mass bombing, poisonous smoke, drowning, decapitation, or what . . . it is the aim not to allow the escape of a single one, to annihilate them all and not to leave any traces.*


The Kempeitai had kept a presence in Shanghai since the Imperial Japanese Army occupied the city in 1937, and the secret police were headquartered in a building known as Bridge House. Shanghai’s foreign presence and intellectual culture saw the rise of resistance publications against the Japanese. The Kempeitai and the collaborationist Reformed Government used a paramilitary organization made up of Chinese criminals called the Huangdao hui (Yellow Way Organization) to commit murders and terrorist actions against anti-Japanese elements in foreign settlements. In one notable incident, Cai Diaotu, editor of an anti-Japanese tabloid, was beheaded, and his head was strung up from a lamppost in front of the French Concession with a placard reading, “Look! Look! The result of anti-Japanese elements.”After Japan’s entry into World War II, the Kempeitai were turned loose against Shanghai’s foreign population, who were arrested on charges of anti-Japanese activity or espionage and transported to Bridge House, where they were imprisoned in steel cages and subjected to beatings and torture. Conditions were awful: “Rats and disease-infested lice were everywhere, and no-one was allowed to bathe or shower, so diseases from dysentery to typhus and leprosy ran rampant.”*The Kempeitai reserved particular attention for British or American journalists who had reported on Japanese atrocities in China*. John B. Powell, the editor of the China Weekly Review, was a typical case of the treatment meted out to prisoners: *“When the questioning began, they had to remove all their clothing and kneel before their captors. When their answers failed to satisfy their interrogators, the victims were beaten on the back and legs with four-foot bamboo sticks until blood flowed.”* Powell was repatriated but died following the amputation of a gangrenous leg, and many other reporters were permanently injured or driven insane by the treatment.In 1942, a number of Allied civilians who were tortured at Bridge House were released as part of a repatriation deal brokered through the Swiss embassy. The journey was made deliberately unpleasant by the Japanese. The internees were placed belowdecks in overcrowded, sweltering conditions as the ship picked up more internees from Yokohama and Hong Kong and then made its slow and grueling journey to the neutral Portuguese port of Lourenco Marques in Mozambique.

After the Japanese occupied the Dutch East Indies, a group of about 200 British servicemen found themselves stuck in Java during the invasion. They took to the hills to fight as a guerrilla resistance force, but they were captured and tortured by the Kempeitai. According to over 60 eyewitnesses testifying at the Hague following the war, these men were tied in pairs, two to each other, facing each other, and stacked, like pigs, in the baskets, lying down and were then forced into 1-meter-long (3 ft) bamboo cages meant to transport pigs. They were then transported via trucks and open rail cars to the coast, in temperatures reaching 38 degrees Celsius (100 °F). The prisoners, already suffering from severe dehydration, were then placed on waiting boats, which sailed off the coast of Surabaya, whereupon the cages were thrown into the ocean. The prisoners were drowned or eaten alive by sharks.

After the Japanese captured Singapore, they renamed the city Syonan (“Light of the South”) and set the clocks to Tokyo time. They then initiated a program to clear the city of Chinese whom they considered dangerous or undesirable. Every Chinese male between the ages of 15 and 50 was ordered to report to registration points throughout the island for screening, where they would be closely questioned to determine their loyalties and political inclinations. Those who passed the tests were stamped on their face, arms, or clothing with the word “examined.” Those who failed the tests—communists, nationalists, secret society members, English speakers, civil servants, teachers, veterans, and criminals—were taken to holding areas. For many, simply having a decorative tattoo was enough to be branded as a member of an anti-Japanese secret society. For two weeks after the screening, those marked as undesirable were taken to be executed at plantations or coastal areas like Changi beach, Ponggol foreshore, and Tanah Merah Besar beach, where the bodies would be washed out to sea. Methods of execution varied according to the whims of four section commanders. Some were marched into the sea and then machine-gunned, while others were tied together before being shot, bayoneted, or decapitated. At later war crimes trials, the Japanese claimed that there were around 5,000 victims, while local estimates range from 20,000 to 50,000.Following the massacre, the Kempeitai maintained a rule of terror and torture, including a form of punishment in which a victim was forced to ingest water by fire hose and then kicked in the stomach. One administrator, Shinozaki Mamoru, was so horrified by the torture that he issued thousands of “good citizen” and safe passage passes, which were usually intended only for those collaborating with the Japanese. He issued almost 30,000 of them, saving many Chinese lives, much to the fury of the Kempeitai. He is remembered today as “Singapore’s Schindler.”

The city now known as Kota Kinabalu was founded as Jesselton in 1899 by the British North Borneo Company and served as a way station and source of rubber until it was captured by the Japanese in January 1942 and renamed Api. On October 9, 1943, an uprising of ethnic Chinese and native Suluks assaulted the Japanese Military Administration, attacking Japanese offices, police stations, military hotels, warehouses, and the main wharf. Despite being armed with only a few hunting rifles, spears, and long parang knives, the rebels were able to kill 60–90 Japanese and Taiwanese occupying the city and surrounding towns before retreating into the hills. Two army companies and the Kempeitai were sent to initiate vicious reprisals, which were aimed not just at the rebels, but also the population at large. Hundreds of ethnic Chinese were executed simply for being suspected of aiding or supporting the rebels. They also targeted the Suluk natives on the offshore islands of Sulug, Udar, Dinawan, Mantanani, and Mengalum. The entire male population of the island of Dinawan was annihilated, while the women and children were forcibly moved elsewhere. Similar massacres took place on Suluk and Udar. While the Japanese estimated that only 500 died, others gave a number closer to 3,000, and the treatment of the Suluks in particular has been described by as genocidal.

In October 1943, a group of Anglo-Australian commandos called Special Z infiltrated Singapore harbor using an old fishing boat and folding canoes. They placed limpet mines that sank or disabled seven Japanese vessels, including an oil tanker. They slipped out without being seen, so the Japanese became convinced that the attack had been orchestrated by British guerrillas out of Malaya, acting on information passed to them by civilians and inmates of the Changi prison.On October 10, the Kempeitai raided the prison, conducted a day-long search for evidence, and arrested suspects. Further inspections saw 57 of the internees arrested for involvement with the harbor sabotage, including an Anglican bishop and a former British colonial secretary and information officer. They would spend the next five months crammed together in cells that were always brightly lit without bedding or room to lie down, as well as being subjected to starvation and brutal interrogation. One suspect was executed for supposed connection to the sabotage, while 15 others ultimately died due to Kempeitai torture. During the 1946 trial of those involved in what became known as the Double Tenth incident, British prosecutor Lieutenant Colonel Colin Sleeman described the Japanese mentality of the time: *It is with no little diffidence and misgiving that I approach my description of the facts and events in this case. To give an accurate description of the misdeeds of these men, it would be necessary for me to describe actions which plum the very depths of human depravity and degradation. The keynote of the whole of this case can be epitomized by two words—unspeakable horror. Horror stark and naked permeates every corner and angle of this case from beginning to end, devoid of relief or palliation. I have searched, I have searched diligently amongst a vast mass of evidence to discover some redeeming feature, some mitigating factor in the conduct of these men which would elevate the story from the level of pure horror and bestiality and ennoble it, at least upon the plane of tragedy. I confess I have failed.*

Guam was the only populated territory of the United States occupied by the Japanese during World War II. Seized in 1941, the island was renamed Omiya Jime (Great Shrine Island), while the capital Agana was renamed Akashi (Red City). The island was initially under the supervision of the Imperial Japanese Navy’s Keibitai. The Japanese used vicious methods to try to remove all American influences and force the native Chamorro people to adhere to Japanese social mores and customs, in the hope of making them into pliant citizens of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.The Kempeitai took control of the island in 1944, as the war was turning against the Japanese and the American war machine was barreling across the Pacific Ocean. Forced labor for Chamorro men, which had been in place since 1943, was expanded to include women, children, and elders. The Kempeitai were convinced that the pro-American Chamorros were engaging in espionage and sabotage and cracked down harshly on the population. Civilians were raped, shot, or beheaded by the military police as discipline broke down. One man, Jose Lizama Charfauros, bumped into a Japanese patrol while foraging for food and was forced to kneel down before being chopped in the neck with a sword. He was found by friends days later; maggots had entered his wounds and kept him alive by clearing out infection. He survived the war with a massive scar on his neck.

The Kempeitai was placed in charge of the Unit 173 facility in the Manchurian city of Pingfan. Eight villages were razed to allow the construction of the facilities, which included living quarters and facilities for thousands of researchers and medics, as well as Kempeitai barracks, a prison camp, underground labs and bunkers, and a large crematorium to dispose of bodies. The Orwellian expression used to describe the body in charge of facilities and others was “Epidemic Prevention Department.” Shiro Ishii was the man in charge, and he introduced his staff to the center by saying, “A doctor’s God-given mission is to block and treat disease, but the work on which we are now to embark is the complete opposite of those principles.” Prisoners who were sent to the Pingfan facility were usually those who had been earmarked as “incorrigible,” “die-hard anti-Japanese,” or “of no value or use.” The majority were Chinese, but there were also Koreans, White Russians, and later Allied POWs from the United States, the UK, and Australia. The Japanese staff referred to the prisoners as murata (“logs”) and referred to the Pingfan facilities as a lumber mill. These facilities used live human subjects to test the effects of biological and chemical weapons, as well as exposure to diseases like bubonic plague, cholera, anthrax, tuberculosis, and typhoid. Live vivisections without anesthetic were also common. One researcher new to the facilities described the process used on a 30-year-old Chinese male: *The fellow knew that it was over for him, and so he didn’t struggle when they led him into the room and tied him down. But when I picked up the scalpel, that’s when he began screaming. I cut him open from the chest to the stomach, and he screamed terribly, and his face was all twisted in agony. He made this unimaginable sound, he was screaming so horribly. But then he finally stopped. This was all in a day’s work for the surgeons, but it really left an impression on me because it was my first time*. Other facilities supervised by the Kempeitai and the Kwantung Army were present in other parts of China and the rest of Asia. Unit 100 in Changchun developed vaccines for Japanese livestock and biological weapons to decimate Chinese and Soviet livestock, while Unit 8604 in Guangzhou bred rats designed to carry bubonic plague. Other facilities to research malaria and plague were established in Singapore and Thailand, though many records were destroyed before they could be captured by the Allies

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## wuzak (Jul 18, 2017)

Um, that's a lot of words!

Thanks for the history lesson, but that does not shed any light on the theory of Amelia Earhart's disappearance.

fwiw I do believe she went into the ocean. And considering that authorities have not conclusively found MH370 after 3 years of looking, and despite all the modern navigation and tracking equipment available, the hope of finding Earhart's plane must be very slim.

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## parsifal (Jul 19, 2017)

for steve (stona)

On probability, you would have to make some allowance for what they were aiming for....They weren't just making random stabs in the ocean, they were on a north south meridian, and were aiming for some land. It is at least plausible that they reached some land, so the chances of them reaching gardner are higher than the simple area of ocean to area of land comparisons might otherwise suggest. 

I don't buy the Japanese capture conspiracy at all. it doesn't add up to me. But the Gardner Is theory does arouse some interest, though its far from proven, and far from even being the most likely contender. most likely they drowned at sea. that scenario far outweighs the other possibilities by a long shot

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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

Yes, MH370 is a good example to understand the Earhart mystery.


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## Peter Gunn (Jul 19, 2017)

wuzak said:


> Um, that's a lot of words!
> 
> Thanks for the history lesson, but that does not shed any light on the theory of Amelia Earhart's disappearance.
> 
> fwiw I do believe she went into the ocean. And considering that authorities have not conclusively found MH370 after 3 years of looking, and despite all the modern navigation and tracking equipment available, the hope of finding Earhart's plane must be very slim.



^^^ What he said...

No offense but I've seen more than one prosecutor and defense attorney for that matter, use similar type of arguments when they have a weak case. I understand you're laying the groundwork/background for who you contend might have captured the famous pair and how they could have murdered them and covered up the evidence. But even Perry Mason would have a hard time with this, it's all circumstantial at best, there is no concrete evidence for this scenario.

On a side note, I appreciate the use of breaks between paragraphs, MUCH easier to read, and your stuff is always worth reading Mike.


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 19, 2017)

I knew I had read most of that before, a lot of that is Cut-N-Pasted from a Listverse article.

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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

Yes, cut-and-pasted, and mixed, to be illogical.

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## parsifal (Jul 19, 2017)

Everyone is entitled to an opinion on this. Remember, nobody has the answers for this....


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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

mikewint said:


> *many documents were deliberately destroyed by the Kempeitai*



You can find out those many documents at JACAR.
I'm now being excited to read them, especially what they did in China.
Let me introduce them in the future if any chance.

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 19, 2017)

Shinpachi said:


> *SNIP*
> *Let me introduce them in the future if any chance*.



Yes please, would be very interested!


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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

wuzak said:


> Thanks for the history lesson, but that does not shed any light on the theory of Amelia Earhart's disappearance.


Depends, Shinpachi's earlier post portrayed the Kenpeitai in a positive light, a slap on the hand, a tsk-tsk, a don't do that no more, and released and on your way. By overwhelming evidence the Kenpeitai made the Gestapo look like the BSA . My point has been throughout this thread that once Earhart/Noonan were in their (Kenpeitai) hands, especially in an isolated backwater part of the Empire their fate was essentially sealed. Higher authorities would have reacted differently but by the time they were informed they had been presented with a fait accompli and had no choice but to "save face" and bury the evidence. Historically one has only to look at the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Three colonels and a major staged the incident and began the invasion. At Dalian in the Kwantung Leased Territory, Commander-in-Chief of the Kwantung Army General Shigero Honjo was appalled that the invasion plan was enacted *without his permission.  *The Japanese principle of Gekokujo was very much a part of the Japanese military.



vikingBerserker said:


> a lot of that is Cut-N-Pasted from a Listverse article.





Shinpachi said:


> Yes, cut-and-pasted, and mixed, to be illogical.


Viking, yes indeed as NONE of this is new. It's old, well documented history. There is no way to portray organizations like the Kenpeitai in a positive light. A former member of the Kempeitai would later tell the New York Times: “Even crying babies would shut up at the mention of the Kempeitai. Everybody was afraid of us. The word was that prisoners would enter by the front gate but leave by the back gate, as corpses.”
Shinpachi, ILLOGICAL?? In what way or sense? As above there is no way to portray the Kempeitai positively. Now in 1937, in large cities, where their activities were supervised by higher authority and subject to international exposure they were forced to be more judicious in their behavior toward foreign nationals. Saipan was not such an area



parsifal said:


> Everyone is entitled to an opinion on this. Remember, nobody has the answers for this....


Absolutely true Michael. In simple terms, that whole second attempt was a disaster just waiting to happen. A Cluster Fork if there ever was one! We can look at what little "hard" facts remain and try to surmise/project/extrapolate but in the end there is no way to know what went on before/during/after that flight unless and until DNA or serial numbered aircraft parts are recovered


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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

Peter Gunn said:


> Yes please, would be very interested!



There are 14,526 records relating to the Kenpeitai like the rules, manuals and activities. 489 of them are official reports written by it, which cover battles with communists and spies.


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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

parsifal said:


> they were on a north south meridian, and were aiming for some land.


844: “WE ARE ON A LINE OF POSITION 157/337. WE WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE ON 6210 kc. RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH.”
At 20 hours and 14 minutes after lifting off from Lae, Amelia Earhart transmitted her last officially acknowledged radio message. The true meaning of the above words “LINE OF POSITION 157/337” is debatable and there seems to be colossal differences over the true meaning of the phrase.
I too find that Gardner island is a distinct possibility. It all depends on whether Earhart had drifted North or South of Fred's planned flight path. Earhart's stated back up plan if she could not find Howland was to turn west towards the Gilberts. If she was North of the flight path there are no Islands to find and she would have then turned west and reached Mili Atoll. If South then the 157/337 line could have brought them to Gardner and a nice flat reef to land on. Many post radio "messages" if from Earhart seem to confirm this theory


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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Shinpachi, ILLOGICAL?? In what way or sense?



Because your post denies the police organization itself.
Good or bad, it's necessary for the nation.
Speechless.


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## stona (Jul 19, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Depends, Shinpachi's earlier post portrayed the Kenpeitai in a positive light, a slap on the hand, a tsk-tsk, a don't do that no more, and released and on your way. By overwhelming evidence the Kenpeitai made the Gestapo look like the BSA . My point has been throughout this thread that once Earhart/Noonan were in their (Kenpeitai) hands, especially in an isolated backwater part of the Empire their fate was essentially sealed.



Firstly, I don't think that was the intention of, nor the effect of Shinpachi's post. The fate of others caught taking photograph's in restricted areas is surely relevant. I doubt they were as well known as Earhart.

The fate of Noonan and Earhart was only sealed when they fell into the hand of the Japanese if it happened immediately, or at least quickly. Nobody so far has argued for this. Even in your account they were transported across the Pacific in an unidentified Japanese vessel (it can't be the one proposed in the documentary). Other accounts have Earhart succumbing to dysentry and Noonan executed, though this is as fanciful as everything else in this theory.
It is inconceivable that two lost celebrities who the Japanese government was either offering to help search for or actively helping to find could be captured by any Japanese organisation (Kempetai or any other), be transported to another destination, imprisoned and executed by some kind of rogue element. Writing it down, it looks ridiculous. Someone, somewhere and at some stage of the operation would surely have contacted a higher authority, not least to say "we've found them, what do you want us to do?" The reason there is no evidence or record of any of this preserved by the Japanese is because none of it ever happened.
There is no evidence, that is ZERO evidence to support any hypothesis predicated on the capture of Earhart and Noonan by the Japanese.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

Shinpachi said:


> Good or bad, it's necessary for the nation.


Nothing on God's green Earth can justify an organization like the Kempeitai OR their methods. 
Tojo Hideki was head of the Kempeitai in Manchuria from 1935 to 1937, where he made his reputation by effectively transforming the Kempeitai into the arm of a police state. The extent to which the Kempeitai thereafter became a law unto itself, rather than ruthlessly executing the policies of the Japanese Army leadership, remains unclear.

The civilian counterpart to the Kempeitai was the Tokubetsu Koto Keisatsu (Tokko in short) or Special Police, known popularly as the "Thought Police." Though the Kempeitai were better known to Westerners, due to their jurisdiction over prisoners of war and civilian internees, the Tokko more closely resembled the Gestapo and other secret police organizations. However, by 1941, Japan had become a military dictatorship, and the Kempeitai often asserted jurisdiction even in Japan itself, on the grounds that they were responsible for enforcement of conscription laws and counterespionage. As a result, they sometimes clashed with the Tokko. The Navy had its own military police in areas under its control, the Tokkeitai, which was created in part to protect Navy personnel from the excesses of the Kempeitai but was equally brutal towards conquered peoples.

The Kempeitai had a relationship with the Japanese criminal underworld, sometimes using gang members as informants. This reflected the older samurai practice of hiring gangsters to terrorize peasants.

The organization and methods of the Kempeitai resembled those of other historical secret police organizations. A Kempei was empowered to arrest personnel of rank up to three grades greater than his own. In wartime Japan, there was no concept of habeas corpus and the Kempeitai could arrest whoever they liked and hold them for as long as they pleased. There was also no presumption of innocence under Japanese law; the burden lay on the one charged with a crime to prove his innocence, rather than on the Kempeitai to prove his guilt. The Kempeitai held their own trials (gunritsu kaigi, "martial law proceedings") at which the defendant had no right to mount a defense and was sometimes not even told the nature of the charges against him. There was no explicit legal authority for these trials, which differed from the regular courts-martial (gunpo kaigi) prescribed by Army regulations.

The Kempeitai made frequent use of torture. The methods most commonly reported included suspending a suspect by his wrists in a way that partially dislocated his shoulders or forcing a suspect to kneel and putting a heavy timber on his calves on which the interrogators stood, partially dislocating the victim's ankles. Other forms of torture included water torture, burning, and electric shock. Beatings were frequent. Kempei were encouraged to be creative in developing new methods of torture. A Kempeitai handbook on torture stated (Hoyt 1993):
Methods of procedure
(a) Torture
This includes kicking, beating, and anything connected with physical suffering. This method is only to be used when everything else has failed as it is the most clumsy. Change the interrogating officer after using torture and good results can be obtained if the new officer questions in a sympathetic manner.
(b) Threats
(1) Hints of future physical discomforts, for example: torture, murder, starvation, solitary confinement, deprivation of sleep.
(2) Hints of future mental discomforts, for example: not to be allowed to send letters, not to be given the same treatment as others and (for prisoners of war) to be kept back last in the event of an exchange of prisoners.

Australian lieutenant Rod Wells described his treatment by the Kempeitai at Sandakan (AWM 2010):

*The interviewer produced a small piece of wood like a meat skewer, pushed that into my left ear, and tapped it in with a small hammer. I think I fainted some time after it went through the drum. I remember the last excruciating sort of pain, and I must have gone out for some time because I was revived with a bucket of water. Eventually it healed but of course I couldn’t hear with it. I have never been able to hear since.*

The Kempeitai sometimes planted evidence of crimes against suspects. A British civil engineer was held for over three weeks in a wooden cage measuring 10' by 20' that held up to 42 other prisoners. Interrogations were frequent and food was limited to an inadequate quantity of boiled rice. However, he was relatively fortunate; although he could hear the screams of other prisoners being tortured, and many of the Chinese prisoners kept with him were dreadfully ill, he was eventually repatriated.

During the occupation of Singapore, the Kempeitai erected iron stakes outside the YMCA and Cathay Building, on which they periodically impaled the severed heads of persons executed for anti-Japanese activity.

How can you say this was NECESSARY?

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## stona (Jul 19, 2017)

What's any of that got to do with Earhart? We have already established the fate of others caught taking photographs in restricted areas, which is relevant.
I'm not going to defend the actions of the Kempetai any more than Nazi Germany's Einsatzgruppen, but neither is pertinent to the hypothesis being debated.

Cheers

Steve

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 19, 2017)

Nothing, he just likes to Cut-N-Paste and claim it as his own.

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## stona (Jul 19, 2017)

The problem is that this is the sort of obfuscation so beloved of conspiracy theorists. They love to throw in a few red herrings to muddy the waters.
There is no evidence that the Japanese ever captured the two. I've never seen any evidence that the Kempetai was even present in these areas of the Pacific in 1937, though if it was I'll gladly hear where and in what numbers. Now we have the pair not only falling into Japanese hands but into the hands of the Kempetai. Moreover this is not just any unit of the Kempetai, but a rogue unit, prepared to execute (or allow to expire due to bad treatment) two famous aviators who have been transported on a Japanese vessel, which has conveniently not reported their presence, despite the international hullabaloo generated by their disappearance.
Did I mention that just writing it down makes it look ridiculous?
Cheers
Steve

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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

Reading your post would be a torture for me if it was double length.
Go on, Mike.

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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

I'm sure most of you will Poo-Poo this too but:





When CNN came out with their denunciation of the Earhart/Noonan/Jaluit Dock Photo I was curious, what book was this from? They said a “Travelogue Book”. Well, wait long enough and guess what, it wasn't a book - that no photo was dated, and that somehow CNN and others managed to overlook those details.
First of all, "the book" cited was not "published in 1935." It's a portfolio of photographs that are tied together with string. Not a book by any stretch of the imagination - books are bound, printed and published. Not this photo album.





The "book" is a photo portfolio, a photo album in effect AND none of the photographs in this portfolio are dated. 






In addition there are no dates in the book, other than a stamp at the back of the book by someone who put it into this library. A Librarian. So a librarian did the stamp, not a copyright office.






So to sum it all up, this is NOT a published book, it’s a photo album - and the librarian obviously made a mistake with the date, because according to the Official Marshall Island letter, there was no dock in Jaluit harbor in 1935. 
There do exist Dated Photos from the 1930’s and there is no dock in the photos of Jaluit in the 1930's, but definitely a dock by those who were there in 1937 and those who stood on the dock in 1937. The Marshallese confirm the dock didn't exist in 1935. It was built in 1936. 

So CNN should have said "a photo album that bears an imprint of a librarian's stamp that says 1935." But clearly, if the dock wasn't built until 1936 - the stamp was wrong.


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## stona (Jul 19, 2017)

No, but I'd like some solid evidence. "Jabor dock was built in 1936. The events of this period are still recalled by our eldest citizens." is not such evidence, particularly as the difference is just one year. I grew up in a country where the vast majority of people over 30 (in the 1960s) could not tell you which year they were born in, a constant source of annoyance to the British who had only recently relinquished their colonial powers and still largely ran the civil service in an 'advisory' role.

Someone will be able to confirm when exactly the dock in question was built and whether that was before 1935 or not.

I can't read Japanese so I can't comment on the stamp. The person who originally dated the portfolio as being from 1935 was Japanese.

Are we now to believe that whoever stamped the item into the national library used the wrong date stamp, or that the recollections of some of the 'eldest citizens' of the Marshall Islands might be out by a year or two? Occam's razor again.

If the date is confirmed I'll be waiting for a chorus of "the photo could have been added later" !

Cheers

Steve


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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

stona said:


> f the date is confirmed I'll be waiting for a chorus of "the photo could have been added later" !


Actually was going to post that earlier. Again, NOT a bound book but a photo album of UNDATED photos tied together with string. Be almost impossible to add a page


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## Robert Porter (Jul 19, 2017)

I would tend to agree, if it is an string tied album, and none of the individual 


mikewint said:


> Actually was going to post that earlier. Again, NOT a bound book but a photo album of UNDATED photos tied together with string. Be almost impossible to add a page


Eh? It would be dead simple to add a page. Not sure what you meant there?


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## mikewint (Jul 19, 2017)

Robert you should know me by now, I'm a 




and was being FACETIOUS


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## Robert Porter (Jul 19, 2017)




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## Shinpachi (Jul 19, 2017)

Hope this helps.

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## wuzak (Jul 19, 2017)

mikewint said:


> My point has been throughout this thread that *once* Earhart/Noonan were in their (Kenpeitai) hands, especially in an isolated backwater part of the Empire their fate was essentially sealed.



That word is the problem with your statement. It should read *IF*.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 19, 2017)

Hard to understand how a book (or binder) could be marked as received 2 years before an object it contains a picture of was built. Unless the photo was added after the book was received, however I am more prone to believe the Marshall Islanders were interested in keeping the controversy alive.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 20, 2017)

mikewint said:


> I'm sure most of you will Poo-Poo this too but:
> View attachment 378554



Why isn't that press release signed by an official? 

Here's the link at the bottom of that page. RMI Washington D.C. Embassy - Press Releases

and more

RMI Washington D.C. Embassy - Minister of Foreign Affairs

Something doesn't seem right!


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## wuzak (Jul 20, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Why isn't that press release signed by an official?
> 
> Here's the link at the bottom of that page. RMI Washington D.C. Embassy - Press Releases
> 
> ...



I see on that page the press releases aren't signed either.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 20, 2017)

They are not, but I cannot find this particular press release on their site either. Or am I just not looking in the right location? Plus the wording on that last sentence seems awkward and contrived unlike the usage in the press releases elsewhere on their site?

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## Shortround6 (Jul 20, 2017)

I would note than any elder, no matter how respected and venerated, who is saying anything in 2017 and is now 84 years old would have been 4 years old in 1937.

I am only 66 and I sure can't remember much from when I was four.

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 20, 2017)

Shinpachi said:


> There are 14,526 records relating to the Kenpeitai like the rules, manuals and activities. 489 of them are official reports written by it, which cover battles with communists and spies.



So, you'll have them posted next week then...

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## Peter Gunn (Jul 20, 2017)

So what's the second photo supposed to be of? It looks like a bay but is that supposed to be the same spot as the "Earhart" photo? Also, them's some mighty big radio towers in the distance, they had those but no docking facilities?

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## buffnut453 (Jul 20, 2017)

Shortround6 said:


> I would note than any elder, no matter how respected and venerated, who is saying anything in 2017 and is now 84 years old would have been 4 years old in 1937.
> 
> I am only 66 and I sure can't remember much from when I was four.



And oral history is notoriously malleable.

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## stona (Jul 20, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> I am more prone to believe the Marshall Islanders were interested in keeping the controversy alive.



Particularly as they, meaning the Marshall Islanders, have a financial incentive to do so, whereas some official stamping a volume into a library, the printers and publishers in 1935 did not.

Why on earth would someone add a photograph, page, whatever, to a folio already in the library? The original, Japanese, discoverer found it with an online search days after the History programme was broadcast. Is someone supposed to have nipped into the library and stuck the page in the folio in the intervening few days just to discredit the programme.
Once again I would apply Occam's razor.

I would note that this is not a photo album in the sense most understand it. The photographs are printed on the pages. Thanks to Shinpachi we know that the volume was received by the collection of the Imperial Library on 25th October 1935, was printed on 5th October 1935 and published on 10th October 1935. That would be a lot of mistakes to make on a volume destined for the Imperial Library, which I would guess was/is a prestigious institution.

One of the common trends in all conspiracy theories is that the more the evidence stacks up against them the more outlandish the rebuttals become. Either that or a denial of any kind of 'official story' as being unreliable and manipulated by some unidentified authority to back up their version of events (see aircraft wreckage and the Pentagon or unknown person or persons sneaking a 1937 photograph into a 1935 folio in Japan's national library).

Cheers

Steve

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 20, 2017)

buffnut453 said:


> And oral history is notoriously malleable.



Heck, eye witnesses to crimes committed 30 minutes prior are pretty unreliable.

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## mikewint (Jul 20, 2017)

Shinpachi, thank you for the translation. Is there anything written there that indicates the source of the photos?


wuzak said:


> It should read *IF*.


Yes, true, and I have never portrayed this as anything other than a Theory which, IMHO, consider to be more likely than the crash and ditch theory based upon the amount of fuel they had (OK estimated) on board AND all of the Post-Loss radio signal received by so many official and unofficial sources AND Earhart's stated back-up plan to turn west. 



Robert Porter said:


> photo was added after the book was received, however I am more prone to believe the Marshall Islanders were interested in keeping the controversy alive.


Robert, both are possible but as I posted since this is NOT a bound book (piece of string holding it together) and is WITHOUT an OFFICIAL DOCUMENTED (the phrase so many of you love, interesting to see if you'll apply it so vigorously here) printed copyright/published/identifier stamp the date of the photo album and the photograph are questionable.



FLYBOYJ said:


> Why isn't that press release signed by an official?


Joe, I wondered about that as well. Believe it or not, much to my surprise the Marshall Islands has an Embassy here in Arkansas (will wonders never cease). I've Emailed them and if I get a response will post it.


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## stona (Jul 20, 2017)

mikewint said:


> but as I posted since this is NOT a bound book (piece of string holding it together) and is WITHOUT an OFFICIAL DOCUMENTED (the phrase so many of you love, interesting to see if you'll apply it so vigorously here) printed copyright/published/identifier stamp the date of the photo album and the photograph are questionable.



We can argue the definition of a book ad nauseam, but I disagree with your assertions above. I have no idea what traditions of bookbinding or bookmaking were prevalent in Japan in the 1930s, but this may well be a commonplace method of binding such a document, particularly for presentation to the Imperial Library.

The 'book' is printed. It is dated by the printer. It is dated by the publisher. It is dated by the Imperial Library on its receipt by that institution.
I would argue that this makes the date of the document as unquestionable as British published book with a copyright stamp and acceptance by the British library.
The evidence that this document was printed, published and produced in October 1935 is extremely strong. I don't see it being refuted.
Your original assertion was that the librarian made a mistake with the date of his stamp which seems unlikely, but cannot be discounted as a possibility. Now we must also believe that the printer and publisher also mis-dated the document. This beggars belief.

As an aside, another Japanese source has expressed surprise at the absence of any Japanese in the photograph and suggested that had it been taken two years later, in 1937, there would almost certainly have been some present. I don't attach much weight to such circumstantial evidence, but found it an interesting comment.

Cheers

Steve

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## Shinpachi (Jul 20, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Shinpachi, thank you for the translation. Is there anything written there that indicates the source of the photos?



The photo book was published by Futabaya Gofukuten (二葉屋呉服店), a souvenir shop located in Koror, Palau. As edited by Motoaki Nishino (西野元章) who, according to other data source, was the owner and engineer of the shop, it would be natural to think that those pictures were taken by Mr Nishino.


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## mikewint (Jul 20, 2017)

stona said:


> As an aside, another Japanese source has expressed surprise at the absence of any Japanese in the photograph and suggested that had it been taken two years later, in 1937, there would almost certainly have been some present


Ah, Steve, methinks Amelia herself could show up in person on your doorstep to testify and you'd say "well I don't know.."
That's why I am amazed that you accept wholeheartedly the statements of an unknown Japanese blogger as to when where and how he "found" this book AND the "books" authenticity. No doubts. No questions. Obviously true. Yet jump with both feet on anything that does not support your crash & burn THEORY! Your question above has already been addressed. At this point Amelia/Noonan were "guests". They were on an island, on a dock, where were they going to escape to? Soon to be on a ship, jump overboard and swim? Only on Saipan was their true status made apparent.

Ok, let's turn this question around with a more cogent question. What was the photograph doing in a classified file in the National Archives in a file of the Office of Naval Intelligence? The answer has to be that the photograph was valuable to US Intelligence prior to World War II.

Look at photographs (from the net) of the harbor at Jabor. In 1905 it had a wooden dock. The Germans had agreements to run these islands (and turned the Marianas over to Spain, who turned over Saipan to Japan in 1914.)

Skip forward to the 1930's. The League of Nations "allowed" Japan to mandate the Marshall islands in return for their promise that they would not "fortify the islands" for war. The Japanese were so secretive about these islands (and their fortifications) that two British citizens were beheaded for spying, and numerous other people were arrested, their boats sunk or confiscated by the Japanese for observing their fortifications. They were fortifying them for war.

Which is how/why this photograph got into the ONI file. It's evidence of the strengthened dock that the Japanese had built in 1936 to hold and receive heavy military material. So IMHO whomever put it in the file didn't care about the people on the dock – they were just interested in the dock itself as it gave credence to the rumors of Japan militarizing the Mandate.

How about actual documentation from someone who was there in 1937 and wrote a book about it. Yea, an actual bound and copyrighted and printed book.
The French explorer Eric De Bisschop who had sailed through the Marshalls on a simple hand-made boat (a Polynesian double canoe) on July 2, 1937. He was arrested near Mili for doing so. His ship was searched, and he writes about it in his book The Voyage of the Kaimiloa. Much like Thor Heyerdahl he had built a simple Polynesian style boat and sailed it vast distances. In 1939 he arrived in Cannes where was thoroughly questioned by US and French authorities. He was asked about seeing Earhart on Jaluit.

Transcribed in Cannes: "In connection with the above", the following statement was made by M. Eric De Bisschop, a former French naval officer..." after mentioning he'd sailed past Mila (sic) atoll, the *Japanese turned hostile *and searched his boat. *"He was arrested, suspected of espionage,* and given a severe and thorough questioning for several hours... (his ship the "Fou Po" was) searched from bow to stern.")

"At Jaluit he had seen shells for 3-inch guns... the Japanese have dredged the harbor and entrance channels... much larger and freer from obstructions then are shown on current charts." The charts are being held confidentially, not for "sale or distribution."

He noticed "an airplane ramp.." an "airplane hangar... a concreted dock... radio transmitter..." He said "as to Mila (sic) dredging and building was going on... It is held so confidential that even Japanese merchant ships are not allowed to visit there... coal, 3" shells, dynamite... are brought to Jaluit.. (then) by small navy transport" to Mila (sic) atoll.

(Part of the page torn away) "the story about Miss Earhart and other people kept... (n)er... is concerned, M. de Bisschop that while possible,... (torn). He said that it was much easier to find someon(e)... ned then to keep them prisoners. He had heard from... (torn) 'efore his visit one such white skin man who had visited Jaluit... (torn) day but with indications that he had been struck over... (torn) e natives declared that this man was rumored to have been (torn).

Yea, the best part missing again but you can fill-in the missing parts. Mr. De Bisschop said he had not seen her but that it was possible she had been there, that it was easier to arrest people than to "keep prisoners." And then he recounted a story of a man who had been beaten and possibly killed for being a spy.)







To continue the Jaluit story, from his book: "And the last place of call of the Fou Po, at Jaluit, yonder, in the Marshalls. Ah! the ugly faces of that Japanese Governor and of those policemen, with their little daggers at their sides. . . . Spies ! We? What a joke! Some note-books showing positions, a few survey notes on the north coast of Australia ... that's not spying !

Kept prisoners for a fortnight, watched closely all the same ... the natives threatened with imprisonment if they approached our craft; and that searching of the Fou Po whilst we were being questioned ashore; just think, a wireless transmitter, an electric sounding apparatus must be hidden somewhere.

Maybe I had thrown everything overboard before landing, but they'll find the traces all right ... everywhere, anywhere . . . under the planking, amid the provision tins... the fools!

*And our departure? only just managed it, luckier than that American, a year ago, than that Englishman, six months ago ! . . . disappeared, both of them . . . poof! dissolved into thin air,* for the greater glory of the Mikado's Empire.” (page 5)

"... the port of Jaluit (under Japanese mandate) is the port of entry for Nauru Island, which is under the control of New Zealand. I would not advise even my greatest enemy to go to Jaluit in the Marshall Archipelago and ask there for a permit to call in at Nauru. He would be received by a nasty Japanese Governor, with a shaved skull, *then kept a prisoner, and accused by him of espionage, and perhaps would not have the luck to slip through his fingers *as we did on the Fou Po. (page 211)


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## fubar57 (Jul 20, 2017)

Any thoughts given that the photo might have been planted in the National Archives? The person "finding" it could say, "Hey...look what I found in the Office of Naval Intelligence. This must be important if it was placed here." and hope the original was never found


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## Robert Porter (Jul 20, 2017)

Well for one, any item in the National Archives, misfiled or not, is stamped with a control number sort of like a library accession number. This number is used to track location and usage of the document or photo. Including any copies made which receive the same number with an increment added. Now the photo was presumably classified as well at some point, which would mean a classification (and subsequent declassification stamp) yet no mention of these numbers are made. Had they been, even if incorrectly filed, we would then be able to determine the source of the photo, the date the photo was acquired, and how it was indexed and classified. Any FBI agent would be well aware of all of this yet as I say no mention of this information was made. This would strongly suggest a manufactured presence or planting of the photo. If the photo were real then the information thus obtained by those numbers would certainly support the agent's claim, yet mysteriously no such information is referenced. 

We just keep bumping into missing information, from sources that should not be missing. All of which suggests an effort to obscure not bring to light. While I have no doubt the Japanese did not welcome people into areas they felt sensitive, and to this very day some people do go missing under questionable circumstances the world over, in this specific case the evidence is totally circumstantial at the very best, and as we are seeing in regards to the photo, fairly obviously interpreted intentionally incorrectly. I am certainly more inclined to think the publisher, printer, and library were accurate than all 3 are in error. 

Remaining fuel aboard may give credence to any number of possibilities but as we truly do not know, they could have also suffered any number of mechanical mishaps. After all we are talking of the 1930's and 1920's technology. Aircraft engines of the time were not exactly known as reliable, corrosive effects of prolonged exposure of aircraft components, hydraulic lines, fuel bladders and lines, to salt sea air were also just being well understood. Heck a wing spar could have folded or a microburst could have sheared the wings off, or aileron flutter could have brought them down. All more likely to me than being captured by Japanese troops and executed as spies. Again, even if they were, there are sure to be surviving records, diary's etc somewhere. After all we have historians still sifting masses of documents in national archives including our own. Stuff does tend to eventually come to light when a governmental agency takes any such action.

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## stona (Jul 21, 2017)

I don't accept a Japanese blogger's word for anything. I accept the dates printed twice and stamped once in the book.

As for the rest.....I give up 

Cheers

Steve

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## fubar57 (Jul 21, 2017)



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## vikingBerserker (Jul 21, 2017)

Amen.......................

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## mikewint (Jul 21, 2017)

George, couldn't agree more. The Marshallese consulate has not replied to my email as of yet so I'm waiting on that.
It's simply that there are 3 good possibilities: 1. Crash and ditch which most of you seem to support and I agree that that is possible and the simplest explanation. There are a number of universities that have done computer modeling of the Electra ditching and the forces on the occupants in that scenario. All show the occupants with minimal injuries. Whether and for how long the Electra would float is questionable. Their Lea take off preparations show a rubber life raft but it is unknown if it was placed on board and if it were it would be in the very back and difficult to reach. So survival possible but not for long.
2. Landing at Nikumaroro reef. I like this one too. It was on/near their reported 157/337 LOP and they had plenty of fuel to be able to reach it. So if they were South of the Howland line it was findable and the reef is flat and smooth. A landing here would keep the engines above water, allow for running them to charge the batteries and transmit at low tide and there were many post-loss radio calls on 3105 heard by both amateur and professional radio operators. Pan-Am tracking stations triangulated these calls as coming from the Nikumaroro region. A Navy aircraft from the Colorado reported signs of recent habitation but saw no people and no Electra. The reef here ends in a 1700ft drop so searching and recovery will be difficult.
3. The Mili Atoll landing. My scenario of choice which so many of you disagree with so vehemently. Earhart had plenty of fuel, 1156 gallons. She had flown Oakland to Honolulu, 2400 miles on 617 gallons. Lea to Howland was 2556 miles just 156 miles more. I realize that many things could have increased fuel usage but Earhart was a good pilot, fuel conservation had been pounded into her head, and Art Kennedy had praised her abilities in this regard. My researches in this area have convinced me that they had drifted North of Noonans course. Earharts stated back-up was to turn west for the Gilberts failing Howland. And there lies Mili and so very many anecdotal reports of their landing, capture, and transport to Saipan. There is also tons of evidence of Japanese paranoia over the Marshall Islands as well as documented evidence of Japanese treatment of captives guilty or not. So I find this credible and possible.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 22, 2017)

mikewint said:


> but Earhart was a good pilot,



Not really - she crashed several aircraft including the Electra she disappeared in. She had under 1000 hours and many of her peers sometimes worried about her not keeping her proficiency up. 

I do agree she would have done everything to stay in the air as the aircraft was part of a university grant IIRC. Everything else about rouge Japanese militias, POW camps etc. is a fantasy. Had she been held and transported as many times as theorized, there would have been a trail of thousands of witnesses. Again, it would have behooved any alleged captors, especially those who held a high command to come clean at war's end if this indeed was the truth.

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## mikewint (Jul 22, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Not really - she crashed several aircraft including the Electra she disappeared in. She had under 1000 hours and many of her peers sometimes worried about her not keeping her proficiency up.


Joe, I am only aware of one airplane "crash" and that is when she ground-looped the Electra then those autogiro crashes, two as I recall and that machine had a number of mechanical issues. As to the Electra's "ground-loop" some called it pilot error others that she blew a tire. I can find nothing about her total hours flying though with all the records she set 1000 seems low. Do you have a source for that?
The last part is very true firstly because she grew up in the "fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants" era when aircraft had few instruments and navigation was DR all the way. So she hired people to do the new tech stuff. Her refusal to learn was also in part due to her fame. Everything turned into a photo-op like her one shot at learning to use the Bendix loop DF. She was also kept busy constantly giving lectures all over the country to raise money.

Her "pilot" history begins with her taking lessons at Bert Kinner’s airfield on Long Beach Boulevard from Neta Snook on January 3, 1921. Snook gave her lessons in a rebuilt Canuk, the Canadian version of the Curtiss JN4 Jenny, which proved to be to lumbering and slow for Earhart—by summer, she had a bright yellow Kinner Airstar that she called The Canary.
Snook thought Earhart was ready to fly solo after 20 hours of flight training—generally 10 hours were deemed sufficient at the time—but Earhart insisted on having stunt training before flying alone. *She got her U.S. flying license in December 1921. *She began participating in public aerial demonstrations and air rodeos. In the fall of 1922, she set an unofficial altitude record for women, flying to 14,000 feet. On March 17, 1923, she received top billing for the air rodeo and opening event at Glendale Airport in Glendale, California. *In 1923, Earhart received her international pilot's license - only the 16th woman to do so *- by the world governing body for aeronautics, The Federation Aeronautique. Unfortunately, due to a change in the Earhart family’s fortune and her own inability to earn enough to keep the plane, Earhart sold the Airstar in June 1923.

In 1928 she was invited to join pilot Wilmer "Bill" Stultz and co-pilot/mechanic Louis E. "Slim" Gordon as a passenger on their transatlantic flight set to take place a little over a year after Charles Lindbergh’s landmark flight—she would be the first woman to fly across the Atlantic. On June 17, 1928, they left Newfoundland in a Fokker F7 and, about 21 hours later, arrived at Burry Port, Wales. The successful flight made headlines across the world. Earhart was just a passenger—in her own words, "a sack of potatoes"—the trip set the stage for Earhart to become a pioneer of aviation and a celebrity. By the end of the year, Putnam had arranged for her first book to be published, titled 20 Hrs. 40 Min., Our Flight in the Friendship: The American Girl, First Across the Atlantic by Air, Tells Her Story.

In August 1929 the Cleveland Air Race, a transcontinental race, was opened to women as a nine-stage race that began in Santa Monica, California, and ended in Cleveland, Ohio. In the Women’s Air Derby, dubbed the "Powder Puff Derby" by humorist Will Rogers, Earhart piloted a new Lockheed Vega-1, the heaviest of the planes flown in her class. Due to several mishaps and one fatality, only 16 of the 20 pilots completed the race. Louise Thaden won the Class D race with a Beechcraft Travel Air Speedwing, Gladys O’Donnell came in second with a Waco ATO, and Earhart came in third in her Vega, two hours behind the winner.

Never had so many female pilots spent a significant amount of time together or gotten to know each other so well. Because of the camaraderie and support they felt during the race, Thaden, O’Donnell, Earhart, Ruth Nichols, Blanche Noyes, and Phoebe Omlie gathered to discuss forming an organization for female pilots. All 117 of the women pilots licensed at the time were invited to join. On November 2, 1929, twenty-six women, including Earhart, met at Curtiss Airport in Valley Stream, New York to form the organization now known as the 99s, named for the 99 charter members. Earhart was the first president of the organization.

In 1930, after only 15 minutes of instruction, Earhart became the first woman to fly an autogiro, which featured rotating blades to increase lift and allow short takeoffs and landings. The Pitcairn autogiro was a contender in the safe-to-fly/no-stall airplane movement to attract more civilian pilots. On April 8, 1931, Earhart set an altitude record in a Pitcairn autogiro that would stand for years. She was sponsored by Beech-Nut company in an attempt to be the first pilot to fly an autogiro from coast to coast, but discovered on arrival that another pilot had accomplished the feat a week before. She decided to attempt to be the first to complete the first transcontinental round-trip flight in an autogiro, but crashed after taking off at Abilene, Texas, on the return leg of the trip, for which she received a reprimand for negligence from Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Aviation Clarence Young. Although she completed the trip in a new autogiro, she abandoned the rotorcraft after several other mishaps.

To dispel rumors that Earhart was not a skilled pilot but merely a publicity figure created by Putnam, they began planning a solo transatlantic flight from Harbor Grace, Newfoundland, to Paris, which would make her the first female and second person to fly solo across the Atlantic. Earhart took off May 20, 1932, in her Lockheed DL-1—five years to the day after Lindbergh began his historic flight. Mechanical problems and adverse weather forced Earhart to land in a pasture near Londonderry, Ireland, rather than Paris, but her achievement was undeniable. The National Geographic Society awarded her a *gold medal,* presented by President Herbert Hoover, and Congress award her a *Distinguished Flying Cross—both awarded to a woman for the first time.*

Earhart continued to set records and achieve firsts for females in aviation. In August 1932, she became the first woman to fly nonstop coast-to-coast across the continental United States in her Lockheed Vega. She had the fastest nonstop transcontinental flight by a woman in 1932. In 1933, she was one of two women to enter the Bendix race from Cleveland, Ohio, to Los Angeles, California, which officials had opened to women, allowing them to compete against men in the same race for the first time. Although she crossed the finish line six hours behind the men, on her return flight, she beat the nonstop transcontinental flight record she set the previous year by two hours.

Earhart received many awards and accolades for her record-setting achievements. She won the Harmon Trophy as America’s Outstanding Airwoman for 1932, 1933, and 1934. She was given honorary membership in the National Aeronautic Association and was awarded the Cross of Knight of the Legion of Honor by the French government.

She also worked with Paul Mantz, a Hollywood stunt pilot and technical advisor, to prepare for a new record flight from Hawaii to California as the first person to fly solo across the Pacific. She received FCC approval to install a two-way radio in her Hi-Speed Special 5C Lockheed Vega—the first in a civilian aircraft.

The Vega was shipped to Honolulu, Hawaii, in late December and on January 11, 1935, Earhart took off from Wheeler Army Airfield near Honolulu. A little over 18 hours later, she landed in Oakland, California, after an uneventful flight.

Hoping to break another record, in April 1935 she became the first person to fly solo from Los Angeles, California, to Mexico by official invitation from the Mexican Government, but became lost 60 miles from her ultimate goal of Mexico City and had to stop for directions. In May, she set a record traveling nonstop from Mexico City to Newark, New Jersey, arriving in just over 14 hours. In August 1935, she flew in the Bendix race again, this time with Mantz, and placed fifth, winning $500.

There have been more than a few (some of the armchair variety) critics who have criticized and rebuked Amelia’s flying skills. Let them try flying a heavy, noisy airplane with crude autopilot capabilities for some 10 to 20 hours at a stretch, over vast oceans, hostile unexplored deserts and mountains, through monsoon rains of unimaginable intensities, with virtually no radio navigation aids to help find your way, with no decent charts for visual reference.
Personally I have problems tolerating a 12-hour flight in luxuriously pampered cushy comfort on a 747! So it is difficult for me to criticize her pilot skills. She had managed to successfully fly from Miami to Lae. HOWEVER piloting skills and radio skills are two distinct and separate endeavors. The former has been aptly demonstrated, but the latter has from time to time come under sharp criticism. From people who knew her personally:

ART KENNEDY: “I think that a lot of the questions about her lack of using the radio correctly is because she would not learn how it worked or how to properly operate it. To me she had no real knowledge of what any radio could do. Kennedy believed that Earhart’s cavalier attitude toward radios led to her undoing. “In her unique fashion Earhart was quite a lady, although it is well known that she punctuated her airport conversation with a spectacular lexicon of aviation vulgarities,” Kennedy wrote. “This was especially the case when she had trouble contacting the tower, because she was notoriously lazy about learning how to use the radio properly. She would get so frustrated that her language became unprintable and Burbank tower operators often found it necessary to reprimand her. That failure to learn radio procedures may be significant in light of the apparently frantic transmissions before she disappeared. I remember Paul Mantz telling her that she must be up to speed on frequencies for daylight and night transmissions, but she just nodded and said, “#%*$¢! I will just turn the knobs until I get what I want.’”

PAUL RAFFORD JR.: Paul tells the story of how his PAN AM Division Radio Engineer met with AE at Miami to discuss radio and suggested several possible changes to increase safety and better radio capability. To his surprise and chagrin Amelia brushed him off with, “I don’t need that! I’ve got a navigator to tell me where I am!”


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 22, 2017)

Mike, a lot of cut and past there that's been read over and over again and beat to death. She had a lot of bucks backing her and there's an old saying in aviation, "more money than brains."

_"There have been more than a few (some of the armchair variety) critics who have criticized and rebuked Amelia’s flying skills. Let them try flying a heavy, noisy airplane with crude autopilot capabilities for some 10 to 20 hours at a stretch, over vast oceans, hostile unexplored deserts and mountains, through monsoon rains of unimaginable intensities, with virtually no radio navigation aids to help find your way, with no decent charts for visual reference."_

*Mike, by no means do I consider myself a super pilot but I'll tell you right here and now I'm no armchair and probably forgotten more about flying than you'll ever know and have time in aircraft that you could only dream about, so if you ever want to compare resumes, I'm game.*

Some of her accomplishments were incredibly brave but incredibly stupid, but in her defense I will say at times she was a victim of the times and her own fame, again* "more money than brains."*

In 1928 she had a landing accident as she hit a rut when landing, in 1930 I know she nosed over a Vega. I believe there's a few more.

I'm trying to find where her total flight hours are published.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 22, 2017)

Earhart Biography

Read why she stopped flying autogyros


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## Zipper730 (Jul 22, 2017)

FLYBOYJ,

I think I get the pattern: She made some bone-headed mistakes

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## Robert Porter (Jul 22, 2017)

From the same page Mike quoted above but farther down:

*There is no denying that Earhart had difficulty learning to fly. It took her more than 15 hours of flight time and nearly a year to solo the Kinner, and she had a number of mishaps afterward, most of them during landings. As one biographer noted: Unfortunately, though highly intelligent, a quick learner, and possessed of great enthusiasm, Amelia did not, it seems, possess natural ability as a pilot. This is no disparagement of Amelia, it is simply the view of many of her contemporaries in the flying world. Indeed, given this apparently important drawback, it is to her great credit that she was subsequently able to achieve so much.

Amelia Earhart | HistoryNet*

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## Robert Porter (Jul 22, 2017)

Ummm, by the way, we all consider it a nicety to actually mention what part of ones post is copied vs original text. And if possible add a link to the quoted/copied content. This helps when we are reading to understand where something came from, and as importantly where and who it came from. I learned this the hard way here early in my membership by quoting a questionable source. My "hat" was handed to me fairly quickly but it was also a good learning experience for me about checking my sources carefully before quoting them as gospel. In my case I quoted a game site as a reference on Spitfire performance. To put it mildly it was personally embarrassing but as I said I learned. The depth and breadth of knowledge among the members here is astounding and as we all know most are very willing to share it freely. But as I learned, they are just as quick to, nicely, call foul when a faulty source is quoted or used.

Several of Mike's sources are solid, but a few, notably History Channel and Wikipedia have potential issues so it always helpful to know where something comes from.

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## wuzak (Jul 22, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Ummm, by the way, we all consider it a nicety to actually mention what part of ones post is copied vs original text. And if possible add a link to the quoted/copied content.



Or a citation for parts copied from a book or other source not available online.

Parts copied from other websites could be placed in a quotation box, so we would know that it is a quote!


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## mikewint (Jul 23, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Mike, by no means do I consider myself a super pilot but I'll tell you right here and now I'm no armchair and probably forgotten more about flying than you'll ever know and have time in aircraft that you could only dream about, so if you ever want to compare resumes, I'm game.


Joe, ABSOLUTELY AND MOST POSITIVELY that was NOT IN ANY SENSE directed towards you. If you took it that way, you have my deepest and most sincere apologies. Your piloting abilities and knowledge has never been and never will be in question by me.
Spent many "happy" hours sitting in various aircraft and jumping out of some perfectly good ones and once or twice a friend who has a small single engine has let me "hold" the controls. Keeping the dram thing straight and level was not easy and that was in a modern aircraft. Can't imagine what it must have been like flying/controlling those 1920's aircraft. 



FLYBOYJ said:


> victim of the times and her own fame,


Indeed very true and don't forget Putnam whose only job was pushing her further and further along that path



Zipper730 said:


> She made some bone-headed mistakes


Yes, but not as a pilot. That was my point. She managed to fly 20,000 miles and was almost home. In 1937 that was a significant accomplishment. Her bone-headedness was in her lack of ability to use her only two lifelines, the radio and the Bendix DF which was a poor choice to begin with, but they were a sponsor.


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## mikewint (Jul 23, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> stopped flying autogyros


As I understand it, she had 15 minutes of instruction on the machines and I can't imagine what it must have been like to control one. Certainly much different than a standard aircraft. All her instincts and previous experience/training would have been working against her. Just another publicity stunt to get her another first and I suspect money changed hands (Putnams)


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 23, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Joe, ABSOLUTELY AND MOST POSITIVELY that was NOT IN ANY SENSE directed towards you. If you took it that way, you have my deepest and most sincere apologies. Your piloting abilities and knowledge has never been and never will be in question by me.
> Spent many "happy" hours sitting in various aircraft and jumping out of some perfectly good ones and once or twice a friend who has a small single engine has let me "hold" the controls. Keeping the dram thing straight and level was not easy and that was in a modern aircraft. Can't imagine what it must have been like flying/controlling those 1920's aircraft.



All good


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 23, 2017)

"Good, very good and great" record breaking pilots of the era were folks like Lindberg, Jeppesen, Byrd, Post, Doolittle, and to keep gender correctness, Jackie Cochran. Read about how they flew, their training, some of the innovations they brought to basic flying (airport directories, approach procedures, checklists) and how they maintained proficiency. At times Earhart was a publicity stunt being pushed and funded by big bucks and IMO it cost her her life.

Fast forward several dozen years later and folks were still pushing young women aviators to do dumb things. There were sooo many things wrong when this happened and to be honest when this stunt was announced I had a feeling it wasn't going to end well. 

Girl, 7, Seeking U.S. Flight Record, Dies in Crash


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## Zipper730 (Jul 24, 2017)

mikewint said:


> and don't forget Putnam whose only job was pushing her further and further along that path


Who's Putnam?


> Yes, but not as a pilot.


Well she did bang up a few planes, not that I think I could do any better (I'm not sure truthfully that I could even get one started up)


> She managed to fly 20,000 miles and was almost home. In 1937 that was a significant accomplishment. Her bone-headedness was in her lack of ability to use her only two lifelines, the radio and the Bendix DF which was a poor choice to begin with, but they were a sponsor.


So she wasn't able to use the navigation equipment and radio: I'm surprised Noonan didn't...


> As I understand it, she had 15 minutes of instruction on the machines and I can't imagine what it must have been like to control one.


I know almost nothing about them other than the fact that you have a propeller in the back and a rotating wing.


> There were sooo many things wrong when this happened and to be honest when this stunt was announced I had a feeling it wasn't going to end well.
> 
> Girl, 7, Seeking U.S. Flight Record, Dies in Crash


I think I know about this one...


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## wuzak (Jul 24, 2017)

Zipper730 said:


> Who's Putnam?



He was a publisher. And he was Mr Earhart.

George P. Putnam - Wikipedia


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## fubar57 (Jul 24, 2017)



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## mikewint (Jul 28, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "Good, very good and great" record breaking pilots of the era were folks like Lindberg, Jeppesen, Byrd, Post, Doolittle,


Joe, while all of these had some familiarity to me I did have to do some research. Lindberg and Dolittle were the most familiar followed by Byrd and Post. Most of what I found was a real eye-opener. In those free-wheeling, no government regulations, no insurance safetycrats, times $500 for a surplus Jenny and an hour or so of instruction made you a pilot. The trick was LUCK and SURVIVAL.

Charles Lindburg on 9 Apr 1922 he made his first flight but not alone. He did not have the money to pay for a damage deposit. In June he joined a flying Circus as a _wing walker and parachutist_. May 1923 he bought his own plane a surplus Curtiss JN-4 and _spent a half an hour _with a pilot who’d come to buy his own surplus Jenny. He then _climbed into his own Jenny and soloed_. He returned to barnstorming this time as a pilot. He _broke several propellers in bad landings and once ran into a ditch._ In 1924 he _crashed the Jenny_ for good when the engine stalled on takeoff. 19 March 1924 he joined the USAAS to become an Army pilot. There were 104 new cadets and only 18 made it to the end. On 5 March 1925 just before graduation he had _a mid-air collision _with another cadet. He managed to parachute to safety. 25 October he became an air mail pilot flying from St. Louis to Chicago. Due to bad weather he _got lost and ran out o fuel twice having then to bailout at night_ as he approached Chicago. His 33.5 hour flight, New York to Paris is a legend, fighting storms, winds, icing, and fatigue, several times he flew just feet above the ocean to throw spray into his face. In the last hours he began to hallucinate to the point of have conversations with them. Landing in Paris he became a worldwide celebrity, Luck Lindy the Lone Eagle. 27 May 1927 he married Ann Morrow and they eventually had six children the first Charles Lindburg Jr. was kidnapped and murdered. During WWII Roosevelt would not allow him back in the Army Air Force calling him a “Damned Nazi”. He did manage to get sent to the Pacific as a consultant where various combat units allowed him to fly combat missions, 50 of them, and in one shot down a Japanese plane. Starting in 1957 during his frequent trips to Germany he began having affairs with 3 German women two of them being sisters and the third his private secretary. He had 3 children with the first and two children with her sister and two more with his secretary. 10 days before his death he wrote to each and asked them to keep the secret which they did until 2001. DNA tests have confirmed their parentage.

Elrey Jeppesen
At 18 joined a Flying Circuis as a ticket taker, prop turner, wingwalker and parachutist. After 2 hours and 15 minutes of instruction he bought a surplus Jenny which he then flew solo. In 1930 he joined the Boeing Air Transport as an air mail pilot. During his many flights he kept a small black book of routes, landmarks, possible landing fields, and farmers willing to help. Initially he gave thes away to fellow pilots but eventually started selling them for $10 each. When Boeing began carrying passengers he became one of the first commercial pilots and was the first to carry a stewardess. On 10 June 1941 while landing his DC-3 in a rain storm he over ran the airport boundary lights and crashed into a 3 foot deep ditch. There were no injuries but the aircraft was badly damaged. Soon after this he and his wife founded the Jeppesen Company and began the commercial production of his charts

Wiley Post
He just managed to complete the 6th grade and had his first airplane ride at 15 in 1913. He enrolled briefly in a flying school but did not get far so he turned to work in the oil field. He join the USAAF but WWI ended before he could complete his training. Jobs were tight so he turned to armed robbery. Arrested and sent to prison in 1921 he was paroled in 1922. In 1926 he joined a flying circus as a parachutist. An accident on 1 Oct 1926 cost him his left eye but the settlement money allowed him to buy his own aircraft and learn to fly. By 1928 he became the personal pilot for two wealthy oilmen who had purchased a Lockheed Vega they named the Winnie Mae. Post used this aircraft to win the L.A. to Chicago Air Derby in just over 9 hours. He then used the Vega to fly his first round the world flight starting on 23 June 1931. Eight days and almost 16 hours later he landed back in New York. On 15 July 1933 he departed New York on his second round-the-world flight this time flying solo using a newly developed Sperry auto-pilot and Radio compass in place of a navigator. After 7 days and almost 19 hours he returned to New York. In 1935 Post decided to develop an Air/passenger route from the US west coast o Russia. Short on cash he decided to build his own aircraft using the fuselage of a Lockheed Orion and the wings of a Lockheed Explorer. Since there were many lakes in both Alaska and Siberia he decided to fit pontoons. When the custom set he ordered did not arrive he decided to use a larger pair from a Fokker aircraft which made the already nose-heavy aircraft even more so. In early August he and Will Rodgers left on their west coast to Russia flight. On August 15th they left Fairbanks Alaska heading to Point Barrow. Almost there the weather turned bad with fog and they became lost. They landed on a lake to ask directions and when they were told that Barrow was only 7 miles away they decided to push on. They had been flying on the forward fuel tanks which were almost empty (plane was nose-heavy) and in their haste to leave Post forgot to switch to full tanks. Just after take-off the engine failed and the aircraft dove into the ground. Post was crushed by the engine being rammed backward and Rodgers had been thrown out of the aircraft. Both were killed instantly.

Richard Byrd
He earned his Naval Aviator wings in August 1917 after which he became very interested in aircraft navigation and developed a Drift Indicator, a sun compass, and the bubble sextant for aircraft navigation. On 9 May 1926 Byrd and Chief Petty Officer Floyd Bennett took off from Spitzbergen Norway flew to the North Pole, circled for 13 minutes, and returned to Spitzbergen, a total of 1535 miles in 15 hours and 57 minutes. Both Byrd and Bennett were awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor in spite of the requirement that it be awarded for action against enemy combatants.
However there has always been controversy about this polar flight which has grown in recent times. In 1958, Bernt Balchen, (Norwegian pioneer polar aviator, navigator, aircraft mechanical engineer and military leader. He also worked on Amelia Earhart’s Lockheed Vega preparing it for her transatlantic flight) claimed that Bennett confessed to him that they had never reached the pole. In 1996 Byrd’s diary was made public. In it were several erased (but still legible) sextant readings that did not agree with those in his official written report. Dennis Rawlins (American astronomer and member of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry) using Byrd’s erased entries calculated that Byrd had gotten to within 150 miles of the Pole when he turned back due to an oil leak in his engine. There are also Byrd supporters who counter these negative claims.

Jimmy Doolittle
The surprise here for me was the vast contributions he made to instrument flying when most felt that human senses/perception/instinct were all that was needed. In 1927 he made that impossible outside loop. In 1929 he was the first to takeoff, fly, and land an aircraft totally blind using only instruments. He developed the Artificial Horizon and Directional Gyroscope. He influenced Shell Oil to produce the first 100 octane AvGas. He was very active in racing aircraft winning the Thompson Trophy in 1932 in that notorious Bee Gee R-1. The Doolittle Raid needs no commentary, while doing little actual damage its psychological effect and its effect on US moral is beyond measure


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## buffnut453 (Jul 29, 2017)

Amy Johnson wasn't too shabby when it came to committing aviation.

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## Robert Porter (Jul 29, 2017)

Bessie Coleman is my personal favorite of the era. She was ten times the pilot as Earhart and most male pilots for that matter.


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## stona (Jul 29, 2017)

buffnut453 said:


> Amy Johnson wasn't too shabby when it came to committing aviation.



Another person about whom all sorts of ridiculous conspiracy theories have grown over the years. There was a third, unidentified person on board, presumably some sort of VIP on a clandestine mission (zero evidence). She was shot down by the RAF in a 'friendly fire' incident (zero evidence) in an Airspeed Oxford, not exactly a type unfamiliar to RAF pilots at the time, nor reminiscent of any German type likely to be encountered, etc., etc.
Cheers
Steve

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 29, 2017)

Mike, there's a lot of cut and paste there with some negative overtones, I don't know if that was intentional but most of them irrelevant when you want to discuss their aviator's skills.. What you fail to mention that despite the incidents that those folks I posted had, *they were 3x the pilot Earhart was*. Each one of them eventually changed aviation and some of their innovations became a standard that could be seen today (Approach charts, Jeppesen, Checklists, Lindberg, Instrument flying Doolittle, etc.) As you said "The trick was LUCK and SURVIVAL" but throw stupidity and/or lack of skill or proficiency into the mix and the end result will be disaster.

So getting this back on track, those folks were innovators and pioneers, Earhart was a mediocre pilot at best with a lot of money backing her who took great risks that eventually caught up with her.


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 29, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Bessie Coleman is my personal favorite of the era. She was ten times the pilot as Earhart and most male pilots for that matter.



Agree, unfortunately her death was a fiasco. I use her accident as a case study in FOD training and risk mitigation.

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## mikewint (Jul 29, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> there's a lot of cut and paste there with some negative overtones, I don't know if that was intentional but most of them irrelevant when you want to discuss their aviator's skills.


Joe, actually not a bit but when you read something, like Doolittles outside loop, how many ways are there to say/write it? Skill/luck? In the 1929 Cleveland National Air Races he attempted to repeat the outside loop in a Curtiss P-1C Hawk when the wings came off. Fortunately he managed to parachute to safety though he could have easily been killed. 
Negative overtones, again not intentional. My point was that these pilots that you posted took some outrageous chances and through skill/luck/whatever managed to survive while others trying the same thing failed/died. Lindberg could have easily been killed at almost any point. Walking on a wing and parachuting have killed many and old air racers are very rare. Flying at wave height trying to throw up spray could have easily resulted in a wave hitting his plane and it would have been the end of Lucky Lindy and he would have been just another also-ran. Lindburg was actually the 19th person to fly across the Atlantic. John Alcock (pilot) and Arthur Brown (navigator) were actually the first in their Vickers Vimy and their flight was also inches from disaster including getting lost in fog and clouds, a stall that brought them within feet of the ocean, ice and snow that choked out an engine that they barely restarted and landing nose over in a bog in Ireland, skill/luck? Post also could have been killed during his armed robbery career while becoming a pilot with only one eye is truly a fantastic accomplishment. Lockheed flatly refused to have anything to do with his Orion/Navigator hybrid and fitting those outsized Fokker pontoons through impatience was a disaster waiting to happen. Again through skill/luck he flew it until one oops, forgetting to turn a valve, again that was impatience as they could have easily stayed put and flew out the next day in much better weather.
Jeppesen's charts were a tremendous plus for all pilots beyond a doubt and the one bad landing was weather related and all survived, skil/luck?
Byrd, his sun compass, drift indicator, bubble sextant are tremendous pluses to air navigation but his Polar flight (didn't Bennett actually do the flying while Byrd navigated) is under serious doubt though will probably never be settled one way or another.
Joe, I ask most sincerely and openly with no undertones whatsoever,: What makes a great/skilled pilot? Earhart, IMHO, followed much the same path as these men and with a bit more luck would have found Howland and finished her flight. Her biggest fault was in ignoring the technical aspects of her flight and the use of her radio and RDF unit


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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 29, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Her biggest fault was in ignoring the technical aspects of her flight and the use of her radio and RDF unit



There was nothing wrong with that equipment so total operator error. It also works better when you don't discard a large portion of the antenna (maybe that's the conspiracy theory to be chased)


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## Robert Porter (Jul 29, 2017)

Umm ignoring the technical aspects and proper use of equipment is almost the textbook definition of a poor pilot, not a good or even average one, a poor pilot.


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## wuzak (Jul 29, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Lots of words about other aviators of the time



None of which made Earhart a better pilot.




mikewint said:


> Earhart, IMHO, followed much the same path as these men and with a bit more luck would have found Howland and finished her flight. Her biggest fault was in ignoring the technical aspects of her flight and the use of her radio and RDF unit



I don't know anything about her around the world flight, but maybe she had plenty of luck getting as far as she did.


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## mikewint (Jul 29, 2017)

Robert depends on your terms. The pilot guides the plane from beginning to end of flight. However radios their usage and procedures were relatively new at this point. 1915 saw the first ever ground to air and two months later air to ground but the radios were heavy bulky short-ranged and prone to break down. It was not until 1930 that reliable and powerful enough radios were available. Still range was limited and pilots had to send messages to the nearest airfield who then contacted the nest airfield who contacted the next and so on. Planes could and did arrive before their messages did. The Army developed its point to point AACS system in 1938 thus Army aircraft could be in constant communication. Earhart took her first flying lesson in Jan 1921 so 9 years before radios became available. As to tech, a water temp gauge, Oil pressure, tach, altimeter and air speed. Most navigation (pilot) was done by looking out of the cockpit and following road maps. Poor Pilot, let's see:
Earhart took off May 20, 1932, in her Lockheed DL-1—five years to the day after Lindbergh began his historic flight. Mechanical problems and adverse weather forced Earhart to land in a pasture near Londonderry, Ireland, rather than Paris. The National Geographic Society awarded her a gold medal, presented by President Herbert Hoover, and Congress award her a Distinguished Flying Cross—both awarded to a woman for the first time.
In August 1932, she became the first woman to fly nonstop coast-to-coast across the continental United States in her Lockheed Vega. She had the fastest nonstop transcontinental flight by a woman in 1932. 
In 1933, she was one of two women to enter the Bendix race from Cleveland, Ohio, to Los Angeles, California. Although she crossed the finish line six hours behind the men, on her return flight, she beat the nonstop transcontinental flight record she set the previous year by two hours.
She won the Harmon Trophy as America’s Outstanding Airwoman for 1932, 1933, and 1934. 
She was given honorary membership in the National Aeronautic Association and was awarded the Cross of Knight of the Legion of Honor by the French government.
She received FCC approval to install a two-way radio in her Hi-Speed Special 5C Lockheed Vega—the first in a civilian aircraft.
January 11, 1935, Earhart took off from Wheeler Army Airfield near Honolulu. A little over 18 hours later, she landed in Oakland, California.
April 1935 she became the first person to fly solo from Los Angeles, California, to Mexico by official invitation from the Mexican Government, but became lost 60 miles from her ultimate goal of Mexico City and had to stop for directions.
In May, she set a record traveling nonstop from Mexico City to Newark, New Jersey, arriving in just over 14 hours.
In August 1935, she flew in the Bendix race again, this time with Mantz, and placed fifth, winning $500.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 30, 2017)

Not doubting she had some nice achievements, however common sense would tell any pilot about to set out on a round the world trip to know about, understand the usage of, and ensure she had the best equipment available. Instead she removed a large portion of the antenna system. She is on record as saying she did not understand DF and figured that was someone elses job. Which is great until something goes wrong. Good pilots do not leave anything they don't have to to chance. She made a fairly large number of mistakes throughout her career as a pilot that were both predictable and avoidable. Honestly she was the 30's equivalent of the 80's and 90's made up boy and girl bands. She was novel as a female aviator, good looking, and had a lot of money and publicity behind her. But her records speak for themselves, she was moderately capable as a pilot but she took a lot of shortcuts in both her skills and her flying. But for the time she was a novelty and very much in the public eye. Of course aviation of any kind was very much in the public eye and a lot of people capitalized on her public appeal. In short some folks enabled her to continue her bad habits for the money involved.


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## mikewint (Jul 30, 2017)

Robert we are almost in total agreement. Common sense is really not that common and old habits are very hard to break. Doolittle was one of the very first to recognize that aircraft were getting beyond human senses ability to control especially when weather/darkness intervened. Pilots who had come up the "old way" were loathed to trust these "new-fangled" instruments which could and did malfunction. Even today with modern aircraft, instruments, radar, training, etc. pilots make avoidable errors. John Kennedy Jr. crashed his aircraft into the ocean when haze obscured the horizon and he became spatially disoriented. He had instruments on board and had been taking lessons to qualify for Instrument Only flight but he trusted his senses not his instruments.
Now I totally agree that Earhart suffered from more than her share of hubris. She "hired" people to navigate and expected others to make up for her inabilities on the radio. Earhart viewed the radio as a luxury and not a necessity and during the flight it's difficult to find an instance where she successfully used the radio. Art Kennedy wrote. “This was especially the case when she had trouble contacting the tower, because she was notoriously lazy about learning how to use the radio properly. She would get so frustrated that her language became unprintable and Burbank tower operators often found it necessary to reprimand her. Paul Mantz told her that she must be up to speed on frequencies for daylight and night transmissions, but she just nodded and said, “#%*$¢! I will just turn the knobs until I get what I want." The Pan Am Division Radio Engineer met with Earhart at Miami to discuss radio and suggested several possible changes to increase safety and better radio capability. To his surprise and chagrin Amelia brushed him off with, “I don’t need that! I’ve got a navigator to tell me where I am!”



Robert Porter said:


> she removed a large portion of the antenna system. She is on record as saying she did not understand DF


There is no record of Earhart removing or having removed the Trailing Antenna (250ft long, reeled out from the tail, used for low frequency, 500kHz). When she crashed in Hawaii 20 March it was crushed and most likely not reinstalled since neither Noonan or Earhart could use Morse and it had considerable weight. In addition the port-side belly antenna (for DF) was also not reinstalled.
So, at the time of the second world flight attempt the plane had three antennas - the starboard belly wire, the Bendix loop, and the dorsal vee. There is some evidence from the filmed takeoff at Lae that the belly wire hit the ground and was ripped off unbeknownst to Earhart.
Which may explain why she had so much trouble hearing Itasca's broadcasts.
The Dorsal Antenna was a "vee" type running from the tip of each vertical stabilizer to a mast atop the fuselage. It was lengthen to a total of 46ft long in an attempt to accommodate 500Kcs as well as her primary 3105KHz & 6210KHz . It was a very poor decision as it provided no meaningful capability to transmit on 500 Kcs while greatly complicating the problem of putting out a decent signal on 3105 and 6210.
The Bendix Loop was installed just before the flight and replaced the Hooven radio compass, a much more advanced system that required no operator input once tuned. A dial in Earhart's cockpit would simply point at the transmitting station. BUT, the Bendix company was one of her sponsors and the Hooven system weighed 30lbs. She had it removed to save weight. Prior to leaving the US Earhart had gone to Bendix to receive instruction on the "new" loop system. Unfortunately it turned into a media circus and photo-op and she ended up receiving little usable instruction. The loop antenna had to be turned manually to find the two null points and the transmitter was between them, Sounds easy BUT you had to be able to hear the nulls and this would have to be done for a weak transmit signal in a cockpit filled with roaring engines over static filled earphones while stearing the aircraft and slowly turning the loop antenna



Robert Porter said:


> Good pilots do not leave anything they don't have to to chance


Very true but one person cannot do everything and those old planes did not fly themselves that's why all those early record flights were NOT solo: Pilot and Navigator. So you end up depending upon others to do their jobs



Robert Porter said:


> She made a fairly large number of mistakes throughout her career as a pilot that were both predictable and avoidable.


And that can be said for every pilot even the ones on FBJ's list. Amy Johnson was lost and out of fuel; Bessie Coleman did not fasten her seatbelt and her mechanic had forgotten a wrench; Wiley Post was lost and forgot to switch to a full fuel tank; Lindberg's mid-air collision at graduation, his getting lost twice flying to Chicago at night and having to bailout. No one is perfect and mistakes are always glaring in retrospect but your point is well taken


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## Robert Porter (Jul 30, 2017)

I guess we have to agree to disagree. Her ambivalence to proper usage of the radio was classic of a wannabe not a real aviator regardless of having a navigator aboard. Her frequent temper tantrums were legendary as you yourself alluded to. And they directly and negatively affected her ability to fly. She was easily flustered, and easily distracted and even confused which resulted in various issues throughout her career.

All together her personality and disregard for safety and proper usage of the available equipment are all symptomatic of a serious lack of understanding and a spoiled personality that honestly assumed success and did not worry about potential issues. 

The lens of history has painted her as an intrepid serious hard working aviator. But contemporary information, oft overlooked or downplayed portrayed her as spoiled, willful, and headstrong. In and of themselves not all that bad, aviators are often Type 1 or "A" personalities. However in combination with the long duration flights and difficult navigational tasks it was fatal. 

In all she was ill prepared, ill trained, and ill equipped to tackle the task before her. Had everything gone right it probably would have ended well. However it did not go right and she did not have the fortitude to deal with significant adversity. Don't get me wrong, I think there is much to admire, but she by no means deserves to be put on a pedestal. The records she did set did not last long, and the real reason she is remembered today is the fact she disappeared, in other words she failed.

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## mikewint (Jul 31, 2017)

Again I would agree with you almost completely on your assessment. The "Elvis" or "Michael Jackson" syndrome, i.e.; surrounded by YES-men who assure you constantly that EVERYTHING you do is correct and normal...After all your....



Robert Porter said:


> Her ambivalence to proper usage of the radio was classic of a wannabe not a real aviator


Here is where we part company. IMHO you are making a 21st century judgement of early 20th century tech. Remember Earhart did not learn to fly until 1921. Radio communication, radio beacons, flight instruments, and navigation (other than DR) were in the future and as I said before old habits are tough to break. I don't have a "smart" phone, my cell phone only makes telephone calls, and this so called "social media" is the dumbest stuff I've ever come across. I look at 99% of these posts and the only reply I can come up with is "Who gives a Rat's Bass".
Wanabee?? Remember, she became the 16th woman to have been issued a pilot’s license by the ‘Federation Aeronautique Internationale’ on May 15, 1923. She was hardly famous at this time.
She was presented the Army Air Corps Distinguished Flying Cross in 1932.
She was awarded the Gold Medal of National Geographic Society in 1932.
She won the Harmon Trophy for ‘America’s Outstanding Airwoman’ for three consecutive years; 1932, 1933 and 1934. These are hardly indifferent/mediocre achievements and it puts her in the same league as Jacqueline Cochran who won 5 times
I'd also remind you that it was not until her January 11, 1935 – First person to solo the 2,408-mile distance across the Pacific between Honolulu and Oakland, California that a civilian aircraft carried a two-way radio. She had received special permission from the FCC to do so. Her round the world flight was just two years later so she had only had the radio for two years.


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## mikewint (Jul 31, 2017)

Historical perspective: Radio was the cutting edge tech of the 1930s and new developments came hard and fast, Pilots and navigation were the beneficiaries of all this new tech.
1919, U.S. Army Air Service Lieutenant Donald L. Bruner began using bonfires and the first artificial beacons to help with night navigation.
In February 1921, an airmail pilot named Jack Knight made an all-night flight to Chicago from North Platte, Nebraska by using bonfires lit by Post Office staff, farmers, and the public.

By July 1923 the Army had opened an experimental lighted airway between McCook Field in Dayton, Ohio, and Norton Field in Columbus, a distance of 72 miles (116 kilometers). The Post Office was also working to complete a transcontinental airway of beacons on towers spaced 15 to 25 miles (24 to 40 kilometers) apart, each with enough brightness, or candlepower, to be seen for 40 miles (64 kilometers) in clear weather.

On July 1, 1924, postal authorities began regularly scheduled night operations over parts of this route.

By June 1927, 4,121 miles (6,632 kilometers) of airways had lights. By 1933, 18,000 miles (28,968 kilometers) of airway and 1,500 beacons were in place. Each tower had site numbers painted on it for daytime identification. At night, the beacons flashed in a certain sequence so that pilots could match their location to the printed guide that they carried. Besides the rotating beacon, one fixed tower light pointed to the next field and one to the previous tower, forming an aerial roadway. Official and emergency fields were lit with green lights while dangerous fields were marked with red. It also prescribed that all landing fields should be at least 2,000 feet by 1,500 feet (610 meters by 457 meters) to allow plenty of room for landings. As a final safety device, the requirement for a searchlight to be mounted on airmail airplanes was appended to the Post Office's set of requirements.

The use of lighted airways allowed pilots to fly at night, but pilots still needed to maintain visual contact with the ground. A really useful air system demanded two-way voice communication and the ability to find out about changing weather conditions while in flight.

In 1926, pilots could only receive weather information and details about other planes in the air just before takeoff. If conditions changed while flying, the ground had no way to warn them. A pilot, too, had no way of communicating with the ground.

By April 1926, they had an experimental ground-to-air radiotelephone system operating that could communicate up to 50 miles (80 kilometers). Soon after, a transmitter installed at Bellefonte, Pennsylvania, on the transcontinental airway, successfully communicated with an airmail plane 150 miles (241 kilometers) away.

In October 1928, the new Aeronautics Branch of the Bureau of Standards installed a group of new radio stations to complement the 17 it had inherited from the Postal Service. It also began sending voice information to help pilots navigate, first by radiotelegraphy (Morse) and then by teletypewriter. The Bureau also developed a radio navigation beacon system, and in 1929 the Aeronautics Branch standardized a four-course radio range whereby pilots listened to audio signals (Morse A [dit-dah] and Morse N [dah-dit] plus every 30sec a two letter station identifier) to determine if they were on course. The Aeronautics Branch stepped up installation of four-course radio ranges, and this technology became standard for civil air navigation through World War II. Earhart was familiar with this system which is why Itasca was broadcasting Morse "A" and Ontario Morse "N" 
*NOTE: Today airports use three letters but you can still see the old code. Los Angles used to be LA, Now LAX; Phoenix was PH now PHX; Portland was PD now PDX; Sioux City was SU now SUX. The Navy reserved all “N” codes; the Federal Communications took W (East of the Mississippi and “K” west of the Mississippi. Telecommunications took “Q” thus QRL ‘are you busy’; QFO ‘may I land’. Canada took the “Y” thus YUL is Montreal. Lastly “Z” is reserved for special usage: ZCX is the FAA’s traffic control headquarters outside Washington D.C.*

As I already posted, in September 1929, Army Lt. James H. Doolittle became the first pilot to use only aircraft instrument guidance to take off, fly a set course, and land. He used the four-course radio range and radio marker beacons to indicate his distance from the runway. An altimeter displayed his altitude, and a directional gyroscope with artificial horizon helped him control his aircraft's orientation, an altimeter for attitude, without him ever seeing the ground.

The Aeronautics Branch began formal flight inspection of airway navigation aids in 1932.

By the end of 1934, there were 68 communications stations and many pilots could request navigation help by two-way radio.

Through 1935, the antennas for transmitting and receiving radio range beacons were improved and more instrument navigation tests conducted. September 1935 marked the first simultaneous transmission by radiotelephone of voice and weather information and radio beacon signals for navigation, and by the end of 1938, six stations were complete and 159 were in progress.


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## Robert Porter (Jul 31, 2017)

Her awards, if you read the stories associated with each, were not for any particular outstanding feat of aviation, they were presented for rather mundane feats mostly because of her sex. Modern day feminists would rotate at warp speeds were awards like that presented to a women today. 

Again, I truly admired her fortitude and effort, but refuse to glorify what was in essence a rather mediocre career. And yes radio was in its infancy as were most flight instruments, however that is NO excuse for not being proficient and able with equipment actually installed in her aircraft. That is the very definition of a wannabe IMHO. Anyone serious about their chosen career, or heck, their hobby, usually endeavors to understand as much as they can about there tools of the trade.

Flying VFR requires few of the instruments available in an modern aircraft, yet pilots are required to understand the usage and potential issues with all the standard instruments in an aircraft to gain their PPL. I am no longer qualified but I was for about 10 years. Most of what I learned in ground school I have never had to use in practice. But when bad things happen you are ever so grateful that you have that knowledge. 

I was flying as a passenger in an old Beechcraft Bonanza, the V-Tail version. The pilot, and his wife were in the front seats, I had just started ground school so had zero hours in a plane at that point. His wife was not a pilot but enjoyed flying with her husband. We were flying VFR in southwest Florida and were skirting a Thunderstorm moving in from the gulf on our way from Miami to Ft Myers. The aircraft suddenly and rapidly gained altitude and speed. The pilot reduced the throttle to idle and we were still hovering near VMAX for our rate of climb. He stayed cool and collected but uttered a phrase that I knew meant serious trouble. "Aileron Flutter", his wife had no clue what was happening and was blissfully enjoying the view. The pilot and I were both having cold sweats. We flew out of the updraft as fast as we flew into it, and the pilot brought us back down to our proper altitude after gently testing all the control surfaces and responses. 

My point of that was while he was certified for IFR we were in VFR conditions until then, he had to file an IFR popup at that point because of the rapid uncontrolled gain in altitude put us outside of the parameters for VFR. So the fact that he new what to do and how to do it probably made all the difference in our actually landing and walking away that day. He later confided to me that he was as scared as he had ever been in an aircraft at that point and he was my instructor! 

But he drilled into all of his students that you have to know your aircrafts operating envelope and how to use and read ALL the instruments available to you in a given aircraft. To him it was the ultimate act of irresponsibility to fly in an aircraft you did not fully understand including all optional or non standard equipment. 

On the other side of the coin I witnessed a pilot's last ever flight. At this point I had my license, and was flying with him in his own Piper Cherokee. We had taken off from a small field in rural Penn, and were heading to another rural field in western Mass. Along the way we had to transit the New Jersey/New York air corridor. We were flying VFR then as well, but if you have never been through that area it is very busy and you need to change/monitor multiple frequencies and contact both regional and local control centers for clearance and instructions. Those controllers are very calm but very busy and they don't like to repeat themselves. 

He had to ask several times for clarification and it was obvious to me he was getting situational saturation. We eventually landed at our destination. He shut the plane down, we parked and tied it down, then he walked into the flight office and voluntarily surrendered his pilots license. Said he could no longer deal with the demands of a busy airspace and felt he was a danger to himself and others. At the time I was in my 30's he was in his late 60's. I ended up flying us home where he sold his airplane to the local flying club. THAT is a real pilot. No temper tantrum just a sober realization that the stresses were no longer manageable for him.

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## Shortround6 (Jul 31, 2017)

I would note that the 1930s were a period of very rapid change and development. 
While Earharts Vega may have been the first "private" plane fitted with a radio by mid 1935 or so (in some cases 1934?) radio equipment is listed as optional on planes such as the Beech 17 Biplane, the Stinson Reliant and Waco Biplanes (both cabin and open cockpit) and perhaps others. How many planes were actually equipped with these options I have no idea but obviously the manufacturers felt the need to offer them (in some cases two different brands of radio) and the shielding/bonding needed for them. 
According to a biography of William Lear 1/2 of all US Private planes were using Lear radios and navigation equipment by some point in 1939. This may be an exaggeration? 
It is one thing to be an old school (don't need no new fangled radio) crop duster or barnstormer, trying to be an old school round the world record setter is not real smart. 

The Early US Air Mail service was a bit of trying too much with too little, Lindbergh was not the only air mail pilot to bail out when lost at night or in bad weather. It was pretty much standard procedure at the time rather than trying to land at night in poor visibility (anything but a full moon night with few/no clouds).


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## Robert Porter (Jul 31, 2017)

Shortround6 said:


> I would note that the 1930s were a period of very rapid change and development.
> It is one thing to be an old school (don't need no new fangled radio) crop duster or barnstormer, trying to be an old school round the world record setter is not real smart.


Agreed! That is my primary point, she was not flying typical flights of the day, she was trying to set records and go beyond the norm. And no one with even a glimmer of intelligence does that without stacking the deck in their favor as much as possible. It is exactly where the phrase there are bold pilots and old pilots but damn few old bold pilots comes from. And she more or less proved the point. A better understanding of her equipment may have saved her.

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## mikewint (Aug 1, 2017)

Guys, 99% agreement. As you observed the 1930s were a time of tremendous change as tech development multiplied logarithmicly. Not everyone is comfortable with revolutionary changes. Einstein could never accept the changes that Quantum Theory brought to Physics. He had learned his trade in a deterministic universe. My grandfather only very grudging accepted electricity in the house and only for lights and his new-fangled radio. Grandma had an ICE box until the ice company stopped delivering blocks of ice. Grandpa hated that electric refrigerator said it gave the food an "electric" taste. Reminds me of computer/internet growth in our own time. I go back to the Radio Shack Model One days with an audiotape memory. When I worked at Fermi Lab we had row after row of washing machine sized disk drives that held 12 metal platters each. The platters were a meter in diameter and each held ONE Gigabyte of data. You were king of the hill if you had 256 Meg memory. I really appreciate how difficult it must have been to go from those free-wheeling barnstorming days to ridged Fed-controlled insurance regulated days. 
As I posted earlier AE learned to fly in 1921 when there were no aids to flying, navigation, or communication, in a kite that had a motor. Robert, you talk about your training and how it regulated your actions well the same is true for AE but her training was 1920 vintage. IMHO in those days taking off, flying straight and level, finding your destination and landing in one piece was a major accomplishment. 
Netta Snook, herself a pioneer woman flyer taught AE for $1 per minute in war bonds for the first 5 hours and for the next 15 hours she taught her for free in AE's Kinner Airster biplane. Nine months after her first lesson AE flew that open cockpit 3-cylinder 66-hp biplane to 14,000 ft setting an altitude record. 
I will maintain that all those records, trophies, and honors did not all happen JUST because she was female. AE was a competent FLYER whose biggest fault was in the technical electronics developments of the aircraft. Her radio log during that final flight puzzled me from the first time I read it to today. Short, terse, with no real information conveyed. Reminds me of the radio contacts we made in Vietnam trying to keep the VC/NVA from locating us.
Consider for a minute the out of fuel-ditch scenario most of you favor. At 08:43 AE gave her "on the line 157-337" message. At 08:55 she stated "we are running on line north and south" and that was it. The Electra had two engines both do not run out of fuel and quit at the same time and the Electra could fly on one engine. When that first engine began to sputter I'D BE ON THAT RADIO in a flash yelling MAYDAY with some kind of position even if just a guess yet there was never such a message.


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## gumbyk (Aug 1, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Consider for a minute the out of fuel-ditch scenario most of you favor. At 08:43 AE gave her "on the line 157-337" message. At 08:55 she stated "we are running on line north and south" and that was it. The Electra had two engines both do not run out of fuel and quit at the same time and the Electra could fly on one engine. When that first engine began to sputter I'D BE ON THAT RADIO in a flash yelling MAYDAY with some kind of position even if just a guess yet there was never such a message.



The one person who I know has had a double-engine failure due to fuel starvation said that there was less than 30s between the engines stopping. He barely had one engine secured before the second quit. it is conceivable that she went through a similar time-frame, without having the time to get a mayday out. It is already established that she was easily flustered, and a double-engine failure could have just been enough that she became overwhelmed and completely lost it.

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 1, 2017)

mikewint said:


> I will maintain that all those records, trophies, and honors did not all happen JUST because she was female.


Agree - it happened because she had some big bucks backing her up!

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## Robert Porter (Aug 1, 2017)

Exactly, and the big bucks were attracted by the novelty for the time of a female aviator. Not because she was a highly proficient aviator.

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## stona (Aug 2, 2017)

There were plenty of early female aviatrix, think of Raymonde Deroche (first woman to fly? certainly the first to receive a licence in 1909) and who became a test pilot before being killed in a crash in 1919.
Blanche Scott, Bessica Raiche (who is officially the first US aviatrix, because Scott's first flight was 'unintentional'), Helene Dutrieu, Ruth Law (who set a distance record in 1916 flying from Chicago to New York), Bessie Coleman (first African American aviatrix, though she had to go to France to learn to fly), Pancho Barnes (who beat Earhart's world speed record for women), and many more, Adrienne Bolland to Jaqueline Auriol.
Why don't we remember them? Some of these names will be unfamiliar even on a forum like this. It's because they were for the most part not the publicity seeking publicists that Earhart and her entourage were, and they didn't get themselves killed through their own incompetence and in circumstances that others, to serve their own ends, have decided were in some way unusual.
Cheers
Steve

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## Robert Porter (Aug 2, 2017)

That sort of goes along with my point, her lasting fame is mostly due to her death not her success.


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## mikewint (Aug 2, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> it happened because she had some big bucks backing her up!


Joe, with your background you know better than I that flying and maintaining your own plane takes BIG bucks today just as it did back then. $500 for a used Jenny doesn't sound like much today but the average yearly income in 1921 was under $1000. If you wanted to fly or even learn to fly the price was high. Earhart's family was not poor but her father was a alcoholic who eventually was unemployed. Her mother took the children to Chicago where they lived on a trust fund left by her grandmother. If she wanted to fly she'd have to earn the funds. Working at a variety of jobs, including photographer, truck driver, and stenographer at the local telephone company for almost a year, she managed to save $1,000 for flying lessons. Then in order to reach the airfield, Earhart had to take a bus to the end of the line, then walk four miles.
Joe, consider that at the time there was nothing like commercial aviation. Once you were a pilot and had an airplane the only way to keep both was barnstorming OR just as today become famous for something and find sponsors. Earhart took her Airister biplane to 14,000 feet and set a record and had her first fame.
From the Kiplinger Magazine 2015:
During the summer of 2014, Amelia Rose Earhart and co-pilot Shane Jordan spent 18 days flying around the world in a Pilatus PC-12 NG plane. Successfully completing the journey at the age of 31, Earhart became the youngest woman to circumnavigate the globe in a single-engine aircraft.

*How did you afford your trip around the world?* It would have been tough to raise enough money by trying to save or asking people to donate. *So I asked sponsors to take part, and the sponsorships were my sole source of funding for the trip*. I considered every manufacturer that had put something on the plane I flew—the wheels, the engine, the avionics inside the cockpit, the propeller, the brake system. I asked myself, What value would these companies get out of being associated with this story?

*What major expenses did the trip entail?* We had to find an airplane to use, as well as pay for training, fuel, permits to fly through the airspace of other countries, landing fees and visas. Plus, there were travel expenses leading up to the trip, including open-water survival training in Connecticut.

*My public relations team was the biggest investment*. I wanted to give my sponsors an awesome return on an inspiring aviation story, so I needed to get immense amounts of media coverage.

*How did you approach the sponsors?* I made sure that I had done all my homework on the companies, learning how they got started and what their founders were passionate about. I also had a mission statement. I think everybody has a calling for a hero's journey, and a lot of aviation companies stand for adventure. That's what I played up in the face-to-face meetings—*an aviator's journey to chase horizons and cross boundaries that haven't been crossed before.* I got financial support from 21 of the 22 companies I approached.

*How did you publicly recognize your sponsors? *I put logos on the outside of the aircraft and wore a flight jacket that had all the sponsor names on it. Another component was a massive social media campaign. On a daily basis, certain sponsors would get recognition on my Facebook, Twitter and Instagram pages. I tried to post authentic explanations of something relevant to the flight. For instance, when talking about the engine manufacturer, I included a photograph of the inner workings of the engine.
Also, we got exposure on television and radio and in newspapers. The final press kit showed that over the course of 18 days, *we generated $18 million* in ad value for all of the sponsors. I was able to show my sponsors how much they got in return for their contributions.

*What was the most challenging part of gathering enough funding for the project?* The nerves that came along with making that first phone call to a sponsor. I told myself that the greater impact of my flight was giving people a story to follow and getting other young women interested in aviation. Right now, only about 5% of pilots [in the Air Line Pilots Association] are women. I reminded myself to keep that passion and heart in my voice when I made the phone calls.

*What advice would you give to young people who want to finance a big dream? *Be humble, and be willing to meet your partners and sponsors halfway. There were certain things about the flight that I would have loved to do bigger or smaller or bolder or a different color. But if people are willing to contribute to you financially, you may *have to bite your tongue.* That's okay, because once you're done, you realize that the petty discrepancies along the way mean nothing.


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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 2, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Joe, with your background you know better than I that flying and maintaining your own plane takes BIG bucks today just as it did back then. $500 for a used Jenny doesn't sound like much today but the average yearly income in 1921 was under $1000. If you wanted to fly or even learn to fly the price was high. Earhart's family was not poor but her father was a alcoholic who eventually was unemployed. Her mother took the children to Chicago where they lived on a trust fund left by her grandmother. If she wanted to fly she'd have to earn the funds. Working at a variety of jobs, including photographer, truck driver, and stenographer at the local telephone company for almost a year, she managed to save $1,000 for flying lessons. Then in order to reach the airfield, Earhart had to take a bus to the end of the line, then walk four miles.
> Joe, consider that at the time there was nothing like commercial aviation. Once you were a pilot and had an airplane the only way to keep both was barnstorming OR just as today become famous for something and find sponsors. Earhart took her Airister biplane to 14,000 feet and set a record and had her first fame.
> From the Kiplinger Magazine 2015:
> During the summer of 2014, Amelia Rose Earhart and co-pilot Shane Jordan spent 18 days flying around the world in a Pilatus PC-12 NG plane. Successfully completing the journey at the age of 31, Earhart became the youngest woman to circumnavigate the globe in a single-engine aircraft.
> ...



Mike, you're beating to death cut and paste facts that most of us already know for gods sake. Mr.Porter said it perfectly;

*"the big bucks were attracted by the novelty for the time of a female aviator. Not because she was a highly proficient aviator."
*
Amelia Rose Earhart is a reporter in my home town. After her adventure shes now doing hourly 5 minute traffic reports on the hour on FOX 31.

Forget the poor child BS, she was a victim of her own fame. Personally I believe she flew that aircraft until she had BOTH engines just about flame out and either landed in the water or on a coral reef. She would have done anything to make sure that aircraft stayed in one piece after she pranged it at Ford Island.

And Mike - again, if you're flying a twin and both engines are feeding from the same tank, you're going to flame out both engines almost at the same time. If you're in a twin and you're running low on fuel, I don't believe flying one engine is an economic option, maybe unless you're in a Cessna Skymaster.


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## mikewint (Aug 2, 2017)

Robert Porter said:


> Exactly, and the big bucks were attracted by the novelty for the time of a female aviator. Not because she was a highly proficient aviator.


Exactly that plus setting records. Is it any different today? What's the income of a highly proficient pilot? Can you make a living being a very proficient swimmer? Heck yea, if you break records. How much money do you think Michael Phelps receives due to his Olympic performance?
Look at Steve's post. Records last only until they're broken and the fame passes on. Amy Johnson was famous when she was the first woman to fly London to Australia and then to Moscow. Then her speed record Japan to Cape Town.
Harriet Quimby 1911 first woman pilot in the US and the first woman to fly the English Channel
Raymonde de Laroche 1st woman in the word to earn a pilots license #36 from the FAI. Longest flight by a woman 201 miles and an altitude record of 15,700ft.
Very few remember them today. Would you remember Christa McAuliffe today if not for her death? She was not even a pilot and had no special qualifications to become an astronaut. She was a social studies teacher.
James Dean made 3 movies total and two were released after he died
Vincent van Gogh sold ONE painting while he lived
Emily Dickinson was a recluse her sister found 40 volumes, some 1800 poems after Emily's death

*Nothing in his life became him like the leaving it.*


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## Shortround6 (Aug 2, 2017)

For those who have not seen it before; Lockheed's recommendations for long range flight attempts by the Electra 10E.

https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Report_487/Report487.pdf

Please note that in regular airline service the plane had a max gross weight of 10.500lbs and at such weight the *absolute* single engine ceiling was 9500ft. altitude at which the plane could climb at 100fpm was much lower.

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## mikewint (Aug 2, 2017)

In the final days of preparations for Amelia Earhart’s first world flight attempt, Lockheed engineer Clarence “Kelly” Johnson sent three telegrams in which he discussed the power management procedures which he recommended that Earhart follow to obtain the best efficiency on her flight from Oakland, California to Honolulu, Territory of Hawaii. Johnson arrived at his recommendations *through actual test flights with Amelia in her own airplane.* The numbers were checked and confirmed by A. H. Marshall at Pratt & Whitney Aircraft in Hartford, Connecticut.

TWS 
Mar 11 1937
AMELIA EARHART
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
OAKLAND CALIF
I AM ADVISING MARSHALL AS FOLLOWS QUOTE COMPLETE FUEL CONSUMPTION TESTS ON EARHART ELECTRA AT FIVE THOUSAND FEET ALTITUTDE WITH TWENTY TO THIRTY DEGREE HEAD TEMPERATURE RISE GIVE FOLLOWING STOP NINETEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY NINE INCHES WITH CAMBRIDGE ZERO SEVEN ONE GIVES FIFTY ONE POINT FIVE GALLONS PER HOUR FOR AIRPLANE STOP EIGHTEEN HUNDRED AT TWENTY EIGHT AT ZERO SEVEN ON GIVES FIFTY TWO POINT FOUR GALLONS PER HOUR STOP FIFTEEN HUNDRED FIFITY AT TWENTY FOUR AT ZERO SEVEN ZERO GIVES THIRTY EIGHT POINT SIX STOP EIGHTEEN HUNDRED AT TWENTY SIX AT ZERO SEVEN ONE GIVES FORTY THREE STOP SEVENTEEN HUNDRED AT TWENTY TWO AT ZERO SEVEN ZERO GIVES THIRTY SIX STOP OTHER VALUES ALSO TESTED STOP HEAD TEMPERATURES NOT OVER THREE SIX FIVE STOP ENGINES SMOOTH USED NEW PLUGS AND HAD EXCELLENT CONDITIONS STOP WE RECOMMEND FOLLOWING POWER AND CAMBRIDGE SETTINGS ON FLIGHT STOP THREE HOURS EIGHTEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY EIGHT INCHES FOUR THOUSAND FEET AT CAMBRIDGE SETTING ZERO SEVEN THREE AND FIFTY EIGHT GALLONS HOUR STOP THREE HOURSE SEVENTEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY SIX POINT FIVE INCHES SIX THOUSAND FEET AT ZERO SEVEN TWO AT FORTY NINE GALLONS PER HOUR STOP THREE HOURS SEVENTEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY FIVE INCHES EIGHT THOUSAND FEET AT ZERO SEVEN TWO AT FORTY THREE GALLONS STOP AFTER NINE HOURS FLY AT SIXTEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY FOUR INCHES OR FULL THROTTLE TEN THOUSAND FEET AT ZERO SEVEN TWO AT THIRTY EIGHT GALLONS PER HOUR STOP AWAIT YOUR COMMENTS BY WIRE TODAY FOR ADVISING EARHART UNQUOTE WILL ADVISE YOU MORE FULLY TONIGHT STOP PLEASE WIRE RESULTS OF YOUR TEST HOP OVER OCEAN ON WAY TO OAKLAND AT ONCE.

C L JOHNSON
LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION

telegram 2

TWS 
Mar 11 1937
AMELIA EARHART
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
OAKLAND CALIF

WIRE FROM MARSHALL CONFIRMS MY RECOMMENDATION OF POWER AND FUEL CONSUMPTION STOP REMEMBER TO LEAN MIXTURE VERY SLOWLY STOP NINE HUNDRED GALLONS FUEL AMPLE FOR FORTY PERCENT EXCESS RANGE TO HONOLULU FOR CONDITIONS GIVEN IN WIRE THIS MORNING STOP IF NECESSARY MIXTURE CAN BE LEANED TO ZERO SEVEN ZERO ON LAST HALF OF FLIGHT IF EXCEPTIONAL HEAD WINDS EXIST STOP CHECK SPARK PLUGS BEFORE TAKEOFF STOP WIRE ME FUEL REQUIRED FOR TRIP TO HAWAII ON ARRIVAL THERE SO I CAN RECHECK FUEL REQUIRED FOR OTHER HOP STOP PHONE ME AT BURBANK TWO SEVEN FOUR SIX TONIGHT IF YOU NEED MORE DATA STOP HOLD ALTITUDE GIVEN IN WIRE WITHIN TWO THOUSAND FEET IF WINDS UNDER TEN MPH ARE ENCOUNTERED

C L JOHNSON
LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION

Telegram #3

TWS 
Mar 13 1937
AMELIA EARHART
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
OAKLAND CALIF

REVISED FLIGHT DATA FOR EIGHT THOUSAND FEET AT BEGINNING OF FLIGHT AS FOLLOWS STOP CLIMB AT TWO THOUSAND FIFTY RPM TWENTY EIGHT AND ONE HALF INCHES AT ZERO SEVEN EIGHT TO EIGHT THOUSAND FEET STOP FIRST THREE HOURS AT NINETEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY EIGHT INCHES AND ZERO SEVEN THREE AT SIXTY GALLONS HOUR STOP NEXT THREE HOURS AT EIGHTEEN HUNDRED RPM TWENTY SIX POINT FIVE INCHES AT ZERO SEVEN TWO AT FIFTY ONE GALLONS HOUR STOP AFTER SIX HOURS USE DATA GIVEN IN PREVIOUS LETTER OR WIRE STOP GALLONS PER HOUR SHOULD RUN LITTLE UNDER FIGURES GIVEN

C L JOHNSON
LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION


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## stona (Aug 3, 2017)

We don't know what she actually did though. We have no idea how she actually managed her engines and fuel consumption, only she and Noonan would know that, and we can't ask either.
There's a lot of conjecture in all the conspiracy theories about the theoretical endurance she may have had, but her own transmission stating that she was running low on gas, about an hour before her final transmission, surely doesn't leave much room for doubt.
I would say that it supports the theory that some time shortly after that final transmission she was no longer low on gas, but out of gas and heading inevitably for the old briny.
Cheers
Steve

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 3, 2017)

Yup, and that would be common sense.

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## mikewint (Aug 3, 2017)

stona said:


> We don't know what she actually did though. We have no idea how she actually managed her engines and fuel consumption,


Very true BUT the past has always been used to predict the future. It's not 100% but then nothing is so, I've burnt my finger before in fire so I predict that if I put them in the fire again I'll get burnt again. So looking at her previous 2400 mile flight, when the Electra landed at Wheeler Field after nearly fifteen hours and 15 minutes of flying time. Earhart told the awaiting press when asked how much longer she could have flown if she had missed Oahu, “…I have over four hours of fuel remaining.” Earhart had used 617 gallons of fuel out of the 947 that she had carried. So she had actually burned an average of 40 gph. She had 330 gallons remaining in her tanks or 8 hours of flying time remaining. From this statement and from what was known of the fuel load for the next sector, one can deduce that the Electra, as operated by Earhart, used slightly less fuel than the consumption figures issued by the aircraft builder, Lockheed. On that basis the Lae to Howland leg was 2556 miles and she carried 1156 gallons of fuel. At 42 gph she had 27.5 hours flying time when she left Lae before fuel exhaustion. Her last recorded contact was at 08:55 and the Itasca operators had a possible at 09:00 though nothing could be understood. That's 23 hours in the air. Now before you all jump with hob-nail boots I do understand that that is conjecture but so is your belief that the sun will rise tomorrow. It's reasonable based on previous data.



stona said:


> she was running low on gas, about an hour before her final transmission, surely doesn't leave much room for doubt.


Ah Steve twer it only so. "RUNNING LOW" what does that actually mean. "LOW" is not OUT of fuel. When my car gauge nears the 1/4-mark I consider myself LOW on fuel. So my doubts here the threefold:
#1. See above. At 09:00 she should have had at least 4 hours of fuel remaining
#2. AE had stated that her back-up plan in case of missing Howland was to turn West and head for the Gilbert Islands and heading west she would have had a tail-wind as well. So the statement "LOW ON FUEL" becomes I'm getting into my reserve fuel supply which I need to reach the Gilberts.
#3. The total lack of ANY emergency/Mayday type radio message after the possible 09:00 contact. As I posted above BOTH engines do not fail at the same time and even with both dead the plane does NOT suddenly drop like a rock. Yea I know conjecture again but I find it hard to believe that in an Out Of Fuel situation, engines dead or dying, she or anyone else would not have grabbed at their only remaining lifeline, the RADIO and MAYDAYED until they were 30ft under water.


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## Shortround6 (Aug 3, 2017)

Something to consider is the that the wings tanks held a max of 250 gallons (but normally 200) . . The Fuselage tanks would have at least one of the wing tanks on each side. 

Fuel diagram for Earharts plane.










Could there have been a problem switching tanks? 

Faulty selector, air bubble? Engines cut and wouldn't restart?


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## gumbyk (Aug 3, 2017)

Man, I hope there is a mistake in those fuel selector valves. The Rear floor valve shows 4 149 Gal tanks, but the diagram shows 3 149Gal and one 70 Gal tanks.

If the engines were running from the fuse tanks when they ran dry, they would both stop within seconds of each other. It could take a long time to get fuel back to the engines, depending on the details of how it is all plumbed up.


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## Airframes (Aug 3, 2017)

Were the radios of the period reliant on an engine-driven generator ?
I'm guessing they were.
So, if total engine failure (due to lack of fuel), there'd be no power to the radio generator, and therefore no signal strength, or, at best, a very weak signal from residual power.

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## Shortround6 (Aug 3, 2017)

There should have been an aircraft battery. How long it was good for????


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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 3, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Very true BUT the past has always been used to predict the future. It's not 100% but then nothing is so, I've burnt my finger before in fire so I predict that if I put them in the fire again I'll get burnt again. So looking at her previous 2400 mile flight, when the Electra landed at Wheeler Field after nearly fifteen hours and 15 minutes of flying time. Earhart told the awaiting press when asked how much longer she could have flown if she had missed Oahu, “…I have over four hours of fuel remaining.” Earhart had used 617 gallons of fuel out of the 947 that she had carried. So she had actually burned an average of 40 gph. She had 330 gallons remaining in her tanks or 8 hours of flying time remaining. From this statement and from what was known of the fuel load for the next sector, one can deduce that the Electra, as operated by Earhart, used slightly less fuel than the consumption figures issued by the aircraft builder, Lockheed. On that basis the Lae to Howland leg was 2556 miles and she carried 1156 gallons of fuel. At 42 gph she had 27.5 hours flying time when she left Lae before fuel exhaustion. Her last recorded contact was at 08:55 and the Itasca operators had a possible at 09:00 though nothing could be understood. That's 23 hours in the air. Now before you all jump with hob-nail boots I do understand that that is conjecture but so is your belief that the sun will rise tomorrow. *It's reasonable based on previous data*.



To start with your last statement, it's not reasonable.

WINDS!

You don't develop fuel consumption data (or assumptions) based on two flights. Additionally I believe this flight was during the first attempt when she later ground looped at Ford Island. 

I'll let my pilot and maintainer friends chime in on this but in my experience, anytime you prang an aircraft, even after a good repair, it's never the same. Many times you'll have issues with asymmetry and it will show when the aircraft flies. Its very possible that after her aircraft was repaired it flew straight and true but the slightest deviation in asymmetry could cause the aircraft to fly out of trim and consume more fuel than calculated when the aircraft was factory fresh. To know for certain you would need several flights to confirm performance data developed from the factory.

With that said, I'm all ears if someone has information on her fuel consumption during several or all of her legs before she disappeared.

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## wuzak (Aug 3, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Now before you all jump with hob-nail boots I do understand that that is conjecture but *so is your belief that the sun will rise tomorrow*.



Is that some sort of flat earth theory BS?

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## wuzak (Aug 3, 2017)

mikewint said:


> #2. AE had stated that her back-up plan in case of missing Howland was to turn West and head for the Gilbert Islands and heading west she would have had a tail-wind as well. So the statement "LOW ON FUEL" becomes I'm getting into my reserve fuel supply which I need to reach the Gilberts.



So, does that mean that on her original planned course she had a head wind?

Would that mean that either she had to run the engines at higher power to make the schedule, or she was short of her objective?


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## wuzak (Aug 3, 2017)

Shortround6 said:


> Could there have been a problem switching tanks?
> 
> Faulty selector, air bubble? Engines cut and wouldn't restart?



Could there have been a fuel leak?


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

Low on fuel surely means exactly that? Why do conspiracy theorists always try to read other meanings into plain language? She did not say she was switching to reserve or running on reserve, she said she was low on 'gas'. It's plain American English.
I don't know what the normal situation for 'low on gas' would be in an aircraft, I'm not a pilot. My car is low on petrol when it goes 'bing bong' and an amber light which looks like a fuel pump comes on 

It is also worth remembering that journalists on Lae, which was an Australian mandated territory at the time of the flight, quoted Noonan as saying that they would take off with 950 gallons of fuel, not the maximum possible amount. Putnam told journalists that Earhart had been practicing take offs with 1,000 gallons of fuel which 'strained' the aircraft. You can find these reports in the British Library, but not, I'm afraid, online.
In a letter to the British Director of Civil Aviation from whom permission for the flight was required (Australia/Commonwealth and all that) she wrote that for the Lae-Howland leg _"I shall carry probably 1,000 gallons of gasoline."_
If either of these to statements is true, one verbal from Noonan, one indisputably written by Earhart, then the aircraft left Lae with either 150 gallons or 200 gallons less than the full 1,150 gallon load, something almost always ignored by the conspiracy theorists in their endurance calculations.
I have seen the endurance for 950 gallons calculated by ex RAF navigator Roy Nesbit ( Aeroplane Monthly January/February 1989) as 20 hours and 13 minutes, but I can't vouch for this and don't know how it was done. If that is correct, at the time of her last desperate message, she had already exceeded that time by 12 minutes.
Cheers
Steve

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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

Nesbit also believes that Earhart went in on a line about 35 miles north west of Howland Island. He bases this on the evidence of two radio transmissions received around sunrise which, be believes, show that Noonan made a fundamental error in his navigational calculations.
The clue lies in two radio messages giving her position. In the first, at 6.14am, she placed herself 200 miles from Howland Island, but in a second, sent 31 minutes later, she was only 100 miles out.

According to Nesbit, himself a trained and experienced navigator

_"What many American researchers have overlooked or not realised is the significance of the two messages that were recorded around about sunrise.
This revision of position provides a very important clue to the ultimate fate of the machine and its occupants. The aircraft could not possibly have covered 100 miles in 31 minutes, even allowing for rounding up of distances."_

Noonan, he explained, would have plotted his position by the stars until dawn, when he would have had to use the sun as a reference point. Marine navigators are trained to pinpoint the exact point at which the top, or upper limb, of the sun appears on the horizon.
Nesbit believes Noonan, who was trained as a marine navigator, miscalculated his position by forgetting to make a crucial adjustment for the "dip", the difference between a reading taken from the surface, and that taken from an altitude of 2,000ft.

_"I think he [Noonan] was exhausted after 18 hours of flying, and simply forgot. They were probably flying up and down a line looking for the island 35 miles west of where they thought they were."
_
Now, it can be argued that Nesbit is making a conjecture, but it is a educated attempt, by another navigator, to explain a navigational error. Some such an error was undoubtedly made, otherwise Earhart and Noonan would have found Howland and this thread would not exist.

Earhart was not a navigator, and despite Noonan's undoubted ability he was not proficient in morse code. Neither Noonan nor Earhart had the radio expertise of Harry Manning, and it is an interesting 'what if' to imagine what might have happened had Earhart stuck with Manning.
Other posters have already alluded to the fact that the decade between Lindbergh's Paris flight and the disappearance of Amelia Earhart witnessed a transformation of aerial navigation technology and practice. A small community of innovators worked to find better tools and techniques. One of these was a Navy Lt. Commander named Phillip Van Horn Weems. He developed simplified methods of celestial navigation that, when combined with improved sextants, provided a reliable means of determining position (either a fix or a “line of position) when the sun or stars could be seen. By 1928, Weems had gone into business teaching air navigation. His initial students and clients included Charles Lindbergh, eager to find a better way than simply relying on luck to cross oceans, polar explorer Lincoln Ellsworth, and Harold Gatty, the soon-to-be-famous navigator of Wiley Post’s Winnie Mae on its around-the-world record flight of 1931.
Weems also trained famous British Aviatrix Amy Johnson, seen here examining a navigational device (the caption says a drift meter) with Weems.





Weems sent the following letter to the Earhart's offering to train her in his navigational techniques.






Putnam replied






She did 'shove off' for another flight pretty soon, and we all know how it ended. I would suggest we also have a pretty good idea why it ended that way too. Such training might not have averted disaster, but it might have helped her to appreciate shortcomings in planning and equipment, and maybe even tempered a tendency to over confidence.

Cheers

Steve

Edit: The 'Hagenberger' referred to by Weems is in fact Albert H*e*gengerger, for those who like to google the people mentioned.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 4, 2017)

mikewint said:


> #3. The total lack of ANY emergency/Mayday type radio message after the possible 09:00 contact. As I posted above BOTH engines do not fail at the same time and even with both dead the plane does NOT suddenly drop like a rock. Yea I know conjecture again but I find it hard to believe that in an Out Of Fuel situation, engines dead or dying, she or anyone else would not have grabbed at their only remaining lifeline, the RADIO and MAYDAYED until they were 30ft under water.



IIRC her radio required a working engine, so if they had stopped due to being out of fuel then they could not have called out.


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

As Roger Connor at the Smithsonian put it.

_"My own conclusion is that is that the accident chain started with the selection of a South Pacific route and the choice of the Lockheed 10E with inadequate range that then locked in the poor choice of Howland Island as the expedition's most critical way-station. The great shortfall in the Earhart's and Noonan's approach was the inability to see the magnitude of the risk they were taking in selecting Howland and gambling on the reliability of largely untested radio equipment."_

He might have added which neither of them properly understood or knew how to operate.

Cheers

Steve

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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

I've been looking into the often made assertion that Earhart was regarded as a very competent pilot. She was certainly portrayed as such by her publicity. She was tutored to fly the twin engine Electra by the then already famous Paul Mantz. He did not feel that she had an instinctive feel for the controls of an aeroplane, something most 'natural' pilots are credited with, and was particularly concerned with the way she adjusted for slight swings in take off by using the throttles rather than rudder.

I can't comment on her piloting skills, except to note that at least some contemporaries had some doubts about some aspects of her performance.
The evidence of her lack of navigational and radio skills are well documented. It may be that in selecting Noonan as navigator (and his traditional navigational skills are not in doubt) she may nonetheless have picked the wrong guy.

Cheers

Steve


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## Shortround6 (Aug 4, 2017)

I would note that with a fuel load of fuel her Electra was almost 60% over it's normal certified gross weight which may have something to do with it's ground handling problems. It may have had something to do with her taking off with the reported less than full fuel load?


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

Shortround6 said:


> It may have had something to do with her taking off with the reported less than full fuel load?



Putnam said that taking off with 1,000 gallons 'strained' the aircraft, whatever that means.

Noonan said they would leave Lae with 950 gallons. As the navigator he should surely have needed to know what their fuel supply and thus endurance would be.

Earhart wrote that she would _'probably'_ carry 1,000 gallons for the Lae-Howland leg.

Whether this reduction in fuel load from the maximum theoretically possible was due to the problems with ground handling and take off of the overloaded aircraft (and the ground loop in March at Luke Field may well have had something to do with the decision) or not we don't know. But there is substantial evidence that those calculating her endurance based on the full 1,150 (1,156?) gallon capacity are using the wrong data.

Cheers

Steve

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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

I reckon I know where Earhart's plane is.
I have prepared a map (well, at minimal expense, google earth and microsoft paint has) to show the area , all I need now is a few million dollars and I'll be off. There are a couple of very minor problems, it is literally in the middle of nowhere and in about 5000m of water, but let's not be discouraged. My evidence is at least as good as any of the other organisations looking for the aircraft, I think it's a lot better 







Any donations to:
Steven A Conman Esquire
Conspiracy Street
Consville
England

With a bit of luck, and enough gullible people, I could make a decent living out of this!

Thanks

Steve

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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

vikingBerserker said:


> IIRC her radio required a working engine, so if they had stopped due to being out of fuel then they could not have called out.



It's why the Gardner Island theory is dependent upon Earhart making a* wheels down* emergency landing on the island, making some radio transmissions before her aircraft was washed off into the sea, conveniently before the USN searched the island (from the air) a few days later, finding no trace of her, Noonan or the aircraft. The island is small and certainly had no kind of prepared strip on which such a landing would normally be attempted. It also implies that she had some fuel left to run whichever engine powered the generator.
Occam's razor again. That's a lot of hypotheses, and some unlikely ones too.
Cheers
Steve

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 4, 2017)

I posted this 10 years ago;

AP diary adds clue to Earhart mystery By RICHARD PYLE, Associated Press Writer
Sat Mar 31, 6:03 PM ET

It's the coldest of cold cases, and yet it keeps warming to life. Seventy years after Amelia Earhart disappeared, clues are still turning up. Long-dismissed notes taken of a shortwave distress call beginning, "This is Amelia Earhart...," are getting another look.

The previously unknown diary of an Associated Press reporter reveals a new perspective.

A team that has already found aircraft parts and pieces of a woman's shoe on a remote South Pacific atoll hopes to return there this year to search for more evidence, maybe even DNA.

If what's known now had been conveyed to searchers then, might Earhart and her navigator have been found alive? It's one of a thousand questions that keep the case from being declared dead, as Earhart herself was a year and a half after she vanished.

For nearly 18 hours, Earhart's twin-engine Lockheed Electra drummed steadily eastward over the Pacific, and as sunrise etched a molten strip of light along the horizon, navigator Fred J. Noonan marked the time and calculated the remaining distance to Howland Island.

The date was July 2, 1937, and the pair were near the end of a 2,550-mile trek from Lae, New Guinea, the longest and most perilous leg of a much-publicized "World Flight" begun 44 days earlier in Oakland, Calif.

At the journey's end there a few days hence, Earhart, already the most famous aviator of the decade, was to become the first female pilot to circumnavigate the globe.

Noonan, a former Pan American Airways navigator, estimated when the plane would reach an imaginary "line of position" running northwest-southeast through Howland, where they were to land, rest and refuel for the onward flight to Hawaii.

Earhart pushed the talk button on her radio mike and said, "200 miles out."

Her voice — described as a "whispery drawl," evoking her Kansas roots — was heard by the Coast Guard cutter Itasca, rocking gently in calm seas off Howland. The U.S. government had built an airstrip on the treeless, 500-acre coral spit, and at the request of Earhart's husband and manager, publisher George Putnam, dispatched the cutter from Hawaii to help her find her way.

During the night, Itasca's radio operators had become increasingly exasperated. Earhart's voice had come through in only a few, brief, static-marred transmissions — "sky overcast" was one — and hadn't acknowledged any of Itasca's messages or its steady stream of Morse code A's sent as a homing signal: dot-dash, dot-dash... They decided the glamorous 39-year-old "Lady Lindy" was either arrogant or incompetent.

What nobody knew — not Earhart, and not Itasca — was that her plane's radio-reception antenna had been ripped away during the takeoff from Lae's bumpy dirt runway. The Itasca could hear Earhart, but she was unable to hear anything, voice or code.

Also listening in the Itasca's radio room was James W. Carey, one of two reporters aboard. The 23-year-old University of Hawaii student had been hired by The Associated Press to cover Earhart's Howland stopover. His job was to send brief radiograms to the AP in Honolulu and San Francisco.

But during the eight days since arriving at Howland, Carey also had been keeping a diary.

In small notebooks, he jotted down comments about the island's "gooney birds," beachcombing and poker games in Itasca's wardroom. He also noted how Earhart's delayed departure from Lae was affecting crewmembers' morale, writing on June 30: "They are getting tired of waiting for a `gooney' dame who doesn't seem to be aware of the annoyance the delays have made."

Carey's diary was unknown to Earhart scholars until last September, when a typewritten copy turned up on eBay and was bought by a member of The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery, or TIGHAR. The non-profit organization believes Earhart and Noonan were not lost at sea, but landed on an uninhabited atoll called Gardner Island, and lived for an unknown period as castaways.

"Even though the diary doesn't answer the big question, it's an incredible discovery," said TIGHAR executive director Ric Gillespie, who has led eight expeditions to the island since 1989, and plans another this July if his group can raise enough money.

"We have long had the transcripts of the radio traffic, but this is the first document that puts a real person aboard Itasca and tells us something from a firsthand witness about what went on during those desperate hours and days."

___

On July 1, word came from New Guinea that the Electra was finally airborne.

Early on Friday, July 2, Carey wrote in his diary: "Up all last night following radio reports — scanty ... heard voice for first time 2:48 a.m. — `sky overcast.' All I heard. At 6:15 am reported `200 miles out.'"

By the time Earhart, her voice stronger, reported she was "100 miles out," a welcoming committee had gone ashore and was "waiting restlessly," Carey wrote.

If Noonan's dead-reckoning did not bring the plane directly over Howland at the "line of position," Earhart would fly up and down the 337-157 degree line until she found the island.

"To the north, the first landfall is Siberia," says Gillespie, "so if they didn't find it soon, they'd have turned back south, knowing that even if they missed Howland, there were other islands beyond it — Baker, McKean and Gardner — on that same line."

But nothing was that simple. By now, Earhart would be burning into her five-hour fuel reserve, and even in daylight, islands could be obscured by billowy clouds and their shadows on the water.

At 7:42 a.m. local time, Earhart's voice suddenly came loud and clear: "KHAQQ to Itasca. We must be on you but cannot see you. But gas is running low. Been unable to reach you by radio. We are flying at 1,000 feet."

At 7:58 a.m., there was a nervous edge to Earhart's normal calm. A log entry had her saying, "we are drifting but cannot hear you." An operator changed this to "we are circling." Gillespie believes she actually said, "we are listening."

As birds wheeled over the Howland shoreline, human ears strained for the sound of engines, and binoculars scanned for any sign of the silver Electra. Itasca continued sending Morse code A's.

About 8:30 a.m., believing Earhart must be out of gas, Itasca's captain, Cmdr. Warner K. Thompson, ordered the welcoming committee back to the ship. "Flash news from ship Itasca: `Amelia down,'" Carey wrote in his diary.

Suddenly, at 8:55 a.m., Earhart was back on: "We are on the line 157 337... we are running on line north and south." The radiomen agreed she sounded distraught; one thought she was near hysteria.

Then the radio went silent.

Having won a coin-toss with his United Press rival, Howard Hanzlick, to decide whose news bulletin would go first, Carey had prepared two versions: "Earhart landed __ Howland time," and "Flash Earhart crackup landing __ Howland time."

He had not anticipated a third alternative, that she might not land at all.

Now, with all frequencies reserved for possible distress calls, neither reporter could send anything. While AP broke the "Earhart missing" story from Honolulu, quoting Coast Guard officials there, it would be 18 hours before Carey's first report reached San Francisco.

In the meantime, he kept busy with the diary: "Itasca set off `full speed ahead' to search the northwest quadrant off Howland," the most likely area for the plane to be afloat on empty gas tanks.

Nothing was sighted, and by evening the ship's mood, Carey wrote, had "taken a turn to the more serious side."

Part 2...

Seventy years later, the mystery lingers. Millions have been spent on expeditions and deep-sea probes, and although legally declared dead by a California court in early 1939, Earhart has been the subject of more than 50 nonfiction books.

"In 1937 she was a celebrity — today she's an icon," says Gillespie, of Wilmington, Del., whose own book, "Finding Amelia: The True Story of the Earhart Disappearance," was published last year.

Theories have ranged from the official version — that the Electra ran out of gas and crashed at sea — to the absurd, including abduction by aliens, or Earhart living in New Jersey under an alias.

A 1943 Hollywood movie, "Flight for Freedom," echoed groundless claims that the pair were on a secret government spying mission against the Japanese and were captured and executed. A 1999 book asserted, without proof, that "the solution to the Earhart mystery lies on the ocean floor under 17,000 feet of water."

Gillespie's book, along with "Amelia Earhart's Shoes," a 2001 book written by four other TIGHAR volunteers, offers a bold, reasoned thesis that Earhart and Noonan crash-landed on a flat reef on Gardner, in the Phoenix Islands, 350 miles south of Howland, and survived, perhaps for months, on scant food and rainwater.

Searches of the remote atoll, now called Nikumaroro, have produced a tantalizing, if inconclusive, body of evidence.

In 1940, Gerard Gallagher, a British overseer on Gardner, recovered a partial human skeleton, a woman's shoe and an empty sextant box at what appeared to be a former campsite, littered with turtle, clamshell and bird remains.

Earhart being his first thought, Gallagher sent the items to Fiji, where a British doctor, examining the human bones secretly to avoid "unfounded rumors," decided they belonged to a stocky European or mixed-blood male, ruling out any Earhart-Noonan connection.

The bones later vanished, but in 1998, TIGHAR investigators located the doctor's notes in London.

Dr. Karen Ramey Burns, a forensic osteologist at the University of Georgia, found the Fiji doctor's bone measurements were more "consistent with" a female of northern European descent, about Earhart's age and height. Burns' report was independently seconded by Dr. Richard Jantz, a University of Tennessee forensic anthropologist.

On their own visits to Gardner, TIGHAR teams recovered an aluminum panel that could be from an Electra, another piece of woman's shoe and "Cat's Paw" heel dating from the 1930s; another shoe heel, possibly a man's, and an oddly cut piece of clear Plexiglas.

The sextant box might have been Noonan's. The woman's shoe and heel resemble a blucher-style oxford seen in a pre-takeoff photo of Earhart. The plastic shard is the exact thickness and curvature of an Electra's side window.

The evidence is promising but, as Gillespie is careful to note, remains circumstantial. "We don't have serial numbers," he says.

___

As the news that the aviators were missing flashed around the world, confusion, official bungling and missed opportunities had only begun.

Itasca searched along the "line of position" northwest of Howland, wrongly assuming the plane's empty fuel tanks would keep it afloat.

The Navy ordered six warships into the hunt, including the battleship USS Colorado from Pearl Harbor and the aircraft carrier USS Lexington from San Diego, 4,000 miles away.

On July 3, a day after Earhart vanished, her technical adviser, Paul Mantz, suggested to reporters that she had crash-landed in the Phoenix Islands. Even if the plane's undercarriage was damaged, Mantz said, "the fliers could have walked away ... uninjured."

Meanwhile, several shortwave radio listeners as far away as the U.S. mainland were picking up the faint voices of a woman and a man, sending apparent distress calls. And both the Itasca and a New Zealand cruiser, HMS Achilles, reported what seemed to be Morse code "dashes."

When Pan Am's Pacific stations triangulated the signals to the Phoenix Islands, the Achilles, less than 48 hours away at its top speed of 32 knots, was ignored. Instead, the Colorado was sent south, but by the time it reached the area a week later, the radio calls had ceased.

After a float-plane search of eight atolls, senior pilot Lt. John O. Lambrecht reported that "signs of recent habitation were clearly visible" at Gardner Island, but "repeated circling and zooming failed to elicit any answering wave from possible inhabitants, and it was finally taken for granted that none were there."

Had Lambrecht known that the island had been uninhabited for more than 40 years, he might have looked more closely. In an interview years later, he described the signs only as "markers," without elaboration. Inexplicably, the final report by Colorado's captain said no sign of habitation had been found.

Among reports of voice messages, two from teenagers using shortwave antennas rigged by their fathers were most disturbingly credible.

In Rock Springs, Wyo., Dana Randolph, 16, heard a voice say, "This is Amelia Earhart. Ship is on a reef south of the equator." Radio experts, aware that "harmonic" frequencies in mid-ocean often could be heard far inland, viewed the report as genuine.

Turning the shortwave dial in St. Petersburg, Fla., 15-year-old Betty Klenck was startled to hear a woman say, "This is Amelia Earhart Putnam," followed by pleas for help and agitated conversation with a man who, the girl thought, sounded irrational.

Having heard Earhart's voice in movie newsreels, she had no doubt that it was her.

"In my mind, a picture of her and what she was saying lasted for years. I remembered it every night of my life," Betty Klenck Brown, now 84 and widowed, said in a recent telephone interview from her home in California.

The man, she recalls, "seemed coherent at times, then would go out of his head. He said his head hurt ... She was trying mainly to keep him from getting out of the plane, telling him to come back to his seat, because she couldn't leave the radio.

"She was trying to get somebody to hear her, and as the hours went by she became more frantic."

Betty listened for nearly two hours, taking notes in a school composition notebook as the signals faded in and out. They ended when the fliers "were leaving the plane, because the water was knee-deep on her side," she said.

She believes she may be the last living person to have heard Earhart's distress calls.

Her father, Kenneth, who also heard the voices, contacted the Coast Guard at St. Petersburg, but was brushed off with assurances that the service was fully engaged in searching for the fliers, she said. "He got mad and chucked the whole thing because of the way he was treated."

Both teenagers' accounts would support TIGHAR's premise that Earhart crash-landed on Gardner's flat reef at low tide, was able to run its right engine to power the radio, and escaped the aircraft before tides eventually carried it off the reef into deep water.

On July 18, 16 days after Earhart and Noonan disappeared, the Navy and Coast Guard ended what the AP called "the greatest search ever undertaken in behalf of a lost flier." To justify the official finding that the Electra was lost at sea, the government dismissed the radio distress calls as hoaxes or misunderstandings.

Betty Klenck Brown's response today: "I know I am right."

Last September, Arthur Rypinski, a TIGHAR volunteer who regularly scans the Internet for Earhart-related material, found a woman in West Virginia offering an "Amelia Earhart Original Flight Plan" for sale on eBay.

"I was deeply intrigued," says Rypinski, of Rockville, Md., and he bought the document for $26.

The "flight plan" proved instead to be a copy of Carey's diary, along with news clippings and other items. Stamps showed it was once owned by the U.S. Army Military History Institute in Carlisle, Pa. The seller, Dolores Brown, told Rypinski she probably had found it at a Goodwill store.

According to Carey's son, Tim Carey of Woodbridge, Va., his father served as a naval officer in the Pacific in World War II and had a career in public relations before his death in 1988.

His role as an AP reporter on the Earhart story became part of family history, his son says. And he adds: "The diary was completely in character for him. He was a real note-keeper."

Now raising funds for a ninth TIGHAR expedition to Nikumaroro in July, Gillespie says the Carey diary serves as a reminder to always "expect the unexpected" in the Earhart case.

"Pacific islanders don't wear shoes, so we know there was one foreign castaway, and maybe two, a man and a woman, on Gardner ... We hope this summer to recover human remains for DNA testing and find aircraft pieces that could be conclusively identified as from Amelia's plane.

"This is the expedition that could at last solve the mystery. I think we are right on the edge of knowing for a certainty what happened."


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 4, 2017)

That's pretty interesting. I wonder if they fired off flares.


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

By most accounts Earhart had removed all emergency equipment from the aircraft before setting off. She and Noonan had none of the emergency equipment one would normally carry on a long over water flight, not even a life raft, so I very much doubt that they had any flares or other signals. It's a convenient part of the TIGHAR theory, that the castaways could not signal to the USN aircraft over flying Gardner Island after their aircraft was washed off the island. Why they couldn't manage a signal fire or some other signal with brush or stones, scrape SOS in the sand/soil ffs, etc., (as even the most basic survival courses teach) is conveniently overlooked. The removal of the emergency equipment was just one of the many risks they took, and why I have always felt that they were either over confident or seriously underestimated the potential hazards of the task ahead or both.
Contemporary accounts also suggest that the sea was far from calm, one describing 6' waves. Alighting in such conditions, even when trained to do so (as naval aviators are) is difficult at best and quite possibly beyond Earhart's ability, particularly if she had lost power.

From the Smithsonian article I quoted above:

_"Whether or not Weems' instruction would have helped Earhart cannot be known. Perhaps it may have made her realize that her “flying laboratory” was that in name only. The Lockheed was not well fitted for navigation. It lacked a rooftop hatch or viewing port for unobstructed celestial observations and none of their navigational equipment, save for a Bendix direction finding radio, could be considered state-of-the-art. Unfortunately, Earhart struggled with the Bendix radio during the flight. Its newness, mechanical unreliability and Earhart’s inexperience with the equipment likely reduced its utility. However, the most vivid illustration of how poorly equipped the Electra was can be seen in the following year with Howard Hughes’ around-the-world flight in a Lockheed 14 that was similar to Earhart’s 10E, but which was truly a flying laboratory that accommodated two navigators and a host of new navigational equipment. This included a new averaging sextant, a new drift sight, new dead reckoning computers, a special observation portal, and a remarkable (and secret) line of position computer made by Fairchild-Maxson."_

Cheers

Steve


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> What nobody knew — not Earhart, and not Itasca — was that her plane's radio-reception antenna had been ripped away during the takeoff from Lae's bumpy dirt runway. The Itasca could hear Earhart, but she was unable to hear anything, voice or code.



I've never bought into this one either. A supposed puff of dust on a poor quality film of the take off is the only evidence. Given the known position of the antenna masts and wire (there are photos online) it seems most unlikely unless the undercarriage collapsed.
Also, one asks rhetorically, wouldn't someone have picked up the wire and possibly other debris from the runway and asked 'what the f#ck is this?' There are no such reports, though TIGHAR likes to refer to some untestable, unverifiable and unreliable 'anecdotal evidence', something typical of many conspiracy theories.
How many of you model makers can see the radio or IFF antenna wires fitted to many British fighters in the early years of WW2 in photographs? Very often they simply don't show up. It's why the Wright brothers, in their obsessive quest for secrecy, painted many parts of their aircraft control systems in aluminium paint. It was hard to discern in photographs.

More likely cause of communication problems is Earhart and Noonan's inability to use the radio equipment they had properly. Neither knew how this really worked:







Cheers
Steve

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## Peter Gunn (Aug 4, 2017)

stona said:


> *SNIP*
> 
> With a bit of luck, and enough gullible people, I could make a decent living out of this!
> 
> ...



Hey why not, it's worked for TIGHAR for what? Decades now? Except once the millions start rolling in, I think you should share the wealth here...


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## Airframes (Aug 4, 2017)

Mr. Conman, I am willing to donate $3 million in Monopoly money, if that will help to get the project underway ..............


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 4, 2017)

I meant I wondered if the Coast Guard ever sent up flares.


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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 4, 2017)

stona said:


> I've never bought into this one either. A supposed puff of dust on a poor quality film of the take off is the only evidence. Given the known position of the antenna masts and wire (there are photos online) it seems most unlikely unless the undercarriage collapsed.
> Also, one asks rhetorically, wouldn't someone have picked up the wire and possibly other debris from the runway and asked 'what the f#ck is this?' There are no such reports, though TIGHAR likes to refer to some untestable, unverifiable and unreliable 'anecdotal evidence', something typical of many conspiracy theories.
> How many of you model makers can see the radio or IFF antenna wires fitted to many British fighters in the early years of WW2 in photographs? Very often they simply don't show up. It's why the Wright brothers, in their obsessive quest for secrecy, painted many parts of their aircraft control systems in aluminium paint. It was hard to discern in photographs.
> 
> ...


Agree - if someone found the antenna on the runway,a whole different story


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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 4, 2017)

stona said:


> It's why the Wright brothers, in their obsessive quest for secrecy, painted many parts of their aircraft control systems in aluminium paint. It was hard to discern in photographs.
> 
> Cheers
> Steve



Actually it was to cover up their lies!


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

Airframes said:


> Mr. Conman, I am willing to donate $3 million in Monopoly money, if that will help to get the project underway ..............


with that kind of money I might actually win a game


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## stona (Aug 4, 2017)

vikingBerserker said:


> I meant I wondered if the Coast Guard ever sent up flares.


Itasca laid a smoke screen, supposedly visible from miles and for a long time. Obviously not from more than 30 miles. The smoke was recorded in the log as
_"stretching out for ten miles and not thinning out greatly."_
There is much debate about just how effective or visible this smoke may have been. I think the Itasca probably started making it too early, and as no note of the cessation of smoke is in the log, we don't know for how long it was continued.

Earhart and Noonan's inability to properly use their radios cannot be over emphasised. On San Francisco's instructions the radiomen on Itasca slowed their morse transmissions to just ten words per minute, a rate a boy scout should be able to understand, but it was to no avail. Earhart and Noonan's inability to understand morse meant that about 90% of the Itasca's efforts to establish two way communication were pointless.
For the estimated two and a half hours that Earhart was in range, Itasca transmitted on 500 and 7500 kilocycles exclusively in code, which nobody on the aircraft could understand or properly reply to. A spoken message on 3105 kilocycles was transmitted for one minute in a three minute period after the hour or half hour.
The radiomen were competent operators and followed what, for them, was normal procedures. They could not know that they had a couple of amateurs on the receiving end of their transmissions.
Earhart's last message came on 3105 and she said she would repeat it on 6210 (here is not the place to get into harmonic radio frequencies), nothing was heard from her again. I can easily imagine a sudden fuel emergency developing as she or Noonan were fiddling with the radio, changing frequencies, at 1,000 ft, but that is TIGHAR style conjecture

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

FLYBOYJ said:


> WINDS!


Duly noted and factored in. Joe, I'm not a pilot an therefore some of my terminology may be weird but, I am well acquainted with vectors and taking their components. An airline pilot is concerned with keeping a schedule and therefor when facing a headwind or any component thereof increases the power to compensate for the reduced Ground Speed increasing his Air Speed and increasing fuel consumption. AE on the other hand had no schedule to keep. Howland and the CG were going nowhere therefore she did not increase power but kept to her Long Range Flight Plan of maximum fuel efficiency. This would mean that the Electra's ground speed (ocean?) would be reduced by the headwind or its component. In 1935 Lockheed had issued memo 465 giving fuel/power settings for all Electras and then in June of 1936 a specific memo 487 for Long Range Electras. This was further enhanced by Kelly Johnson (see telegrams) stating that the Electra's best economy was at a TAS of 130 knots or 150 MPH. In nil wind the two speeds are the same and the 2556 miles to Howland take 17.04 hours. A 10mph headwind reduces the G/S to 140mph and Howland is now 18.25 hours away. NOW I do understand that this increased TIME also burns fuel but at a lesser rate that upping the power to keep the G/S at 150mph since air resistance is proportional to the velocity (of the air) squared. 

Forecast received at Lae on June 30th:
_EARHART LAE
WEATHER LAE AND HOWLAND GENERALLY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR FIRST 600 MILES WIND ESE10-15 HEAVY LOCAL RAIN SQUALLS TO WESTWARD ON ONTARIO DETOUR AROUND AS CENTER DANGEROUS CLOUDY ONTARIO TO LONG 175 EAST OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS WINDS EAST AT 10 THENCE TO HOWLAND PARTLY CLOUDY UNLIMITED VISIBILITY WIND ESE 15-20 ADVISE CONSULTING LOCAL WEATHER OFFICIALS AS NO REPORTS YOUR VICINITY AVAILABLE HERE
FLEET AIR BASE PEARL HARBOUR_

Another forecast received at Lae on July 1st:
_EARHART LAE
FORECAST THURSDAY LAE TO ONTARIO PARTLY CLOUDED RAIN SQUALLS 250 MILES EAST OF LAE WIND EAST SOUTH EAST TWELVE TO FIFTEEN PERIOD ONTARIO TO LONG ONE SEVEN FIVE PARTLY CLOUDY CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT TEN THOUSAND FEET MOSTLY UNLIMITED WIND EAST NORTH EAST EIGHTEEN THENCE TO HOWLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS WIND EAST NORTH EAST FIFTEEN PERIOD AVOID TOWERING CUMULUS AND SQUALLS BY DETOURS AS CENTRES FREQUENTLY DANGEROUS
FLEET AIR BASE PEARL HARBOUR
_
Altogether, the winds are not favorable for the flight to Howland Island. For the reports that did not reach Earhart and Noonan before they left, the Lae Radio Operator, Harry Balfour, continually broadcast these reports to the Electra but did not receive any acknowledgement that they had been heard.

The fuel loads that we know of, and the mileages that they were intended for:
a. Oakland to Honolulu: 947 USG for 2400 statute miles which included a 40% excess range, i.e. 960 “more miles” making the total 3360 statute miles on 947 USG. A telegram from Kelly Johnson of Lockheed to Earhart states that 900 USG is “ample” for this flight and the 40% excess range.
b. Luke Field, Honolulu to Lae: 900 USG for 1900 miles plus a reserve of 200 USG.
c. Lae to Howland Island: 1100 USG (or 1151 USG) for 2556 Statute Miles plus a further 600 miles if the Contingency Plan was invoked and a turn-back for the Gilbert Islands was made. Total would then be 3156. Note that this 3156 Statute Miles requirement is less than the range possible on 900 USG of the Johnson telegram mentioned at a., above.

On the “First Attempt” flight from Oakland to Honolulu, Earhart made notations that were later put into the book “Last Flight” by her husband George Palmer Putnam. In my copy of the book on pages 33-34, there are notations. There is a section of these notes which are for a point 6 hours and 35 minutes into the flight, she writes:

_“Harry (Manning) reports we’re ahead of the dead reckoning. Noonan is just figuring position. Gas so far is o.k. The ship now flies like an airplane with almost 2000lbs rt up.”_

The letters “rt” in “rt up” in the print font, are taken from Earhart’s handwriting, and her “r” and “e” are similar. Her handwritten note could have been “et up” which means “eaten up” or perhaps in long form, “used right up,”. This indicates that at the 6 hour, 35 minute “into the flight point” or at the latest, the 7 hour point, nearly 2000 lbs of fuel have been used which means “nearly” 333 USG gone. At this 6:35 hour point and according to the Lockheed Long Range Plan, the Electra should have used 413 USG. It had to be 333 because it is defined by “almost 2000 lbs” and 433 USG would weigh 2598 lbs while 333 USG would be 1998 lbs. This could mean that Earhart did not use a high power climb-out but “cruise-climbed” at a lower power setting, thereby using less fuel.

For the Electra at Sea Level, Lockheed states that VL/D. at Sea Level for a weight of 9,300 pounds is 11.85: 1 at 110 mph IAS. 
For 12,900 pounds it is 11.85: 1 at 120 mph IAS 
For 16,500 pounds AUW it is 11.9: 1 at 150 mph IAS. 
In comparison, a Cessna 150 has a Lift Drag Ratio of 7:1, a Boeing 747 has an L/D of 17:1.


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

stona said:


> Low on fuel surely means exactly that


Steve, words like LOW and HIGH or TALL and SHORT are NOT quantitative terms. They are RELATIVE terms and even with a specific referent convey little actual information. This has nothing to do with conspiracy and everything to do with language. If I want to take my boat 30 miles down the lake, 1/2 tank is LOW on fuel and I'll gas-up but if were going 2 miles to a beach I'm no longer LOW.
Earhart's stated contingency plan was to turn West to the Gilberts if not able to find Howland. The Gilberts were 600 miles from Howland which is 4 hours flying time at her best cruise speed of 150 mph G/S. Since the Islands lay in a convergence zone the winds are from the East most of the time so she could count on a tail wind. Once reaching the Gilberst she'd have to "look around" a bit to find a suitable "landing" spot so some loiter time needs to be included. Based on her previous fuel usage I figure she needs 200 - 250 USG remaining at/near Howland. SO when she gets to this point she is getting LOW on fuel


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

wuzak said:


> So, does that mean that on her original planned course she had a head wind?
> 
> Would that mean that either she had to run the engines at higher power to make the schedule, or she was short of her objective?


Yes almost invariably since the islands lie in a convergence zone. That's why the original plan was to fly west to east
No she didn't she had no set schedule to keep so the Electra was kept at its best economy power a TAS of 150 mph


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

It may have had something to do with her taking off with the reported less than full fuel load?

All tanks were filled except for the 100 octane tank. Lae did not have that grade of fuel so AE elected NOT to dilute what remained of her 100 octane in that tank. Reportedly it was 1/2 full and the Lae refueler recorded 1100 USG. The 50 USG of 100 octane were used at takeoff so that the engines produced their highest horsepower


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

stona said:


> I can't comment on her piloting skills, except to note that at least some contemporaries had some doubts about some aspects of her performance.
> The evidence of her lack of navigational and radio skills are well documented. It may be that in selecting Noonan as navigator (and his traditional navigational skills are not in doubt) she may nonetheless have picked the wrong guy.



From a letter written by Fred Hooven (inventor of the Radio Compass Earhart removed to save 30lbs):
Miss Earhart was furthermore the product of the age of “seat-of-the-pants” piloting, when any self-respecting pilot felt that the use of any instrument was a reflection on his piloting ability. She had only recently, during her current round-the-world flight, ignored the advice of her navigator and made a considerable navigation error. Crossing the Atlantic, heading for Dakar, Noonan had advised her to turn south, as she was north of her course. She nevertheless turned north, and landed 165 miles off course in St. Louis, Senegal.

The people responsible for installing the radio equipment and instructing Miss Earhart in its use reported that they had difficulty in retaining her attention, and it became obvious as the flight progressed that she did not understand the frequency limitations of her direction finder, nor how to make proper use of it.1

Fred Noonan was a first-class navigator in the classical sense. He could take positions from observations of the sun and stars, and had developed ingenuous [sic] methods for working out these observations in a short time, to accomodate [sic] to the high speed of aircraft. However, for the flight, he was confined to the rear of the plane’s passenger compartment, the entire front part of which was completely occupied by tanks. He had no view of the sky except that available through a small window in the side of the compartment. There was no communication between the navigator and pilot except a long stick with a notch in the end which could be used for passing notes along the narrow space between the tanks and the fuselage wall.


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

vikingBerserker said:


> her radio required a working engine, so if they had stopped due to being out of fuel then they could not have called out.


Not quite, no more than your car radio requires that you have your engine running. The Electra had a standard automotive -type system of generator/batteries, The batteries (2) were Exide 6-FHM-13-1, 12-volt, lead-acid type, with 85 AH capacity. The transmitter operated from the 12-volt DC electrical system aboard the aircraft. The tube filaments and the relays in the control circuitry were powered directly from 12 volts. High-voltage power for the tubes was provided by a dynamotor, a motor-generator unit which operated from the 12-volt system and produced 1050 volts DC at approximately 300 milliamperes.
Primary power requirements for the transmitter were approximately 11 amperes on standby (tube filaments alone), and 65 amperes on transmit using voice (tube filaments, relays, and dynamotor).
So on just one battery AE could transmit for over an hour. The engine generator was necessary to recharge the batteries just as in your auto. The generator was limited to 50 amp output. When transmitting the load rose to 68 amps thus the batteries provided the extra 18 amps. For each minute of transmitting it required 13 minutes of recharge at 6 USG per hour fuel burn


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## mikewint (Aug 5, 2017)

stona said:


> Noonan, he explained, would have plotted his position by the stars until dawn


Steve another IF ONLY. The Smithsonian guy ignores the following: At 14:15 GMT a faint scratchy radio message was heard and picked up and recorded by Chief Radio Operator Bellarts on the USCG _Itasca_. Several people heard the call but only Chief Bellarts was able to discern the words: “_Cloudy and overcast._”

The meaning of that call was ominous and would mean that *no Astro Navigation was possible.* This in turn means that it is not possible to know the G/S or the wind value and therefore there is no knowledge of progress made, all that can be done is to work from historical data. At 1415 GMT, my calculations show the Electra to be 866 Sm from Howland Island and from then on, over that 866 miles, without Astro Navigation, a ten percent lateral error of 86 miles is possible in theory. The wind was forecast from the east-northeast (058o Magnetic) and their Magnetic steer into Howland was 068o close to Howland. The wind angle on them had been around 10 degrees, so the most that they could have been pushed to the south over 6 hours is around 30 miles.
At 1515 GMT Earhart is calling, and the word “Overcast” is again heard. They are still 736 Sm from Howland. At 1624 GMT, Earhart was heard but very faint and the words, “Partly cloudy,” were recorded. All in all, these radio receptions from Earhart indicate that NO positional fix could be made until the sun fix at dawn


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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 5, 2017)

mikewint said:


> Duly noted and factored in. Joe, I'm not a pilot an therefore some of my terminology may be weird but, I am well acquainted with vectors and taking their components. An airline pilot is concerned with keeping a schedule and therefor when facing a headwind or any component thereof increases the power to compensate for the reduced Ground Speed increasing his Air Speed and increasing fuel consumption. AE on the other hand had no schedule to keep. Howland and the CG were going nowhere therefore she did not increase power but kept to her Long Range Flight Plan of maximum fuel efficiency. This would mean that the Electra's ground speed (ocean?) would be reduced by the headwind or its component. In 1935 Lockheed had issued memo 465 giving fuel/power settings for all Electras and then in June of 1936 a specific memo 487 for Long Range Electras. This was further enhanced by Kelly Johnson (see telegrams) stating that the Electra's best economy was at a TAS of 130 knots or 150 MPH. In nil wind the two speeds are the same and the 2556 miles to Howland take 17.04 hours. A 10mph headwind reduces the G/S to 140mph and Howland is now 18.25 hours away. NOW I do understand that this increased TIME also burns fuel but at a lesser rate that upping the power to keep the G/S at 150mph since air resistance is proportional to the velocity (of the air) squared.
> 
> Forecast received at Lae on June 30th:
> _EARHART LAE
> ...



Mike, all good information but there's another angle left out when we talk about winds - WINDS ALOFT which will generally be greater then reported on the ground. If the winds are 10-15 on the ground usually you'll find them greater at altitude, especially if you have squalls in the area. "Any speculation based on her first flight fuel performance is a guess" for many reasons already given.


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## stona (Aug 6, 2017)

mikewint said:


> The meaning of that call was ominous and would mean that *no Astro Navigation was possible.*



At that altitude.

Another critical decision to be made. Do we continue on dead reckoning, seat of the pants, across the Pacific Ocean or use fuel to climb and establish a position?
Nobody has ever disputed Noonan's ability as a traditional navigator and once again, we don't know what they did. Maybe this was another decision that they got wrong.

It raises an interesting question about the dynamic between Earhart and Noonan. The Dakar example is used in a paper I found on line but has no attribution. It analyses the navigation on the Natal-Dakar flight (including blowing some holes in some more of TIGHAR's theories, particularly re: the copies of charts they are flogging which are NOT authentic and may even be falsifying some data).

fer3.com/arc/img/115631.navigationtodakar.pdf

The conclusion is that in fact

_"The bottom line is that the Dakar flight provides no help in explaining the final disappearance."_

Because the argument that,

_"... the reason the Dakar story had relevance to the final disappearance is that it offered an
explanation for why they were unable to find Howland. It seemed possible, at the end, that
Earhart refused, as she had done on the approach to Dakar, to follow Noonan's advice on the
heading to follow that would have taken them the Howland."
_
doesn't stand up to this particular analysis. Earhart may have made some confusing and contradictory ststements about the flight, but they at some stage made a decision to head for St Louis rather than Dakar, possibly for the Air France facilities available there.

_"Most significantly, to the question of whether they accidentally missed Dakar, you can see
on Noonan’s chart that there had been a sun line that ran to Dakar on an approximate 21º T
course but this line was erased (but still visible) and the sun line was advanced to 1800 Z to run
to Saint Louis. This confirms that they deliberately hit the coast south east of Dakar and then
deliberately flew to Saint Louis. It's no coincidence that the 1800 Z sun line runs directly to Saint
Louis. and that the parallel line to Dakar had been erased."_

Africa is a much bigger target than an island in the Pacific Ocean (few realise just how big it is!) so they could hardly miss it, but there are still some questions raised about the navigation across the Atlantic.

Cheers

Steve

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## stona (Aug 6, 2017)

Matters of opinion.

I've been looking into the famous missing antenna.

First, the only known photograph of Earhart taking off from Lae is of too poor a resolution to form any reasonable opinion, either way. I know TIGHAR has employed an 'expert' to state that the antenna is missing. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have spent many years analysing the details of aircraft in pictures, including searching for masts and antenna wire in a quest for model making accuracy and in my opinion that photograph proves nothing. Have a look for yourselves.
I can barely see the port undercarriage leg in this detail from the photograph, but nobody would suggest that it's not there  There are other bits that nobody is suggesting were not there which are not visible in this photograph.









Second, the take off film. Long after the 'puff of dust' when the aircraft is in fact airborne at the 31 second mark I think I can see the antenna masts (obviously not the wire at the resolution of the film). Others may disagree. Have a look for yourselves, there is a link to the film on Tighar's site. The quality is probably even worse than in the one still photograph.
Again, the point is that there is no really good evidence either way. From this you cannot base an entire theory on a missing antenna.

Cheers

Steve

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## stona (Aug 6, 2017)

Can anyone explain why the

"PROCEEDINGS OF A BOARD OF OFFICERS APPOINTED TO INVESTIGATE AND REPORT UPON THE CRASH OF MISS AMELIA EARHART'S AIRPLANE NR 16020 AT LUKE FIELD, OAHU, T. H., AT 5:50 A.M., MARCH 20, 1937, AND CIRCUMSTANCES RELATING TO HER ARRIVAL AND STAY AT WHEELER AND LUKE FIELDS, MARCH 18 TO 20, 1937."

keeps referring to the 'landing mat' at Luke Field? There are several references to it in the report.

I know this can't refer to Marston mat which was yet to be invented, and while I know that various other systems had already been developed in Europe, and possibly the US, I can't see any evidence for it in the photos of the crashed Electra. Nonetheless, the report states,

_"approximately 50 square feet of the Luke Field landing mat was damaged necessitating replacement..."
_
The report is essentially an effort by the USAAC to exculpate itself from any possible blame or legal action by the Earhart team, and this area of 'landing mat' was the only damage to government property.

Cheers

Steve

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 6, 2017)

Great info Steve!


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## stona (Aug 6, 2017)

To put the 'take off photograph in context, here it is again, in it's entirety






And this shows what we are actually supposed to be missing






You can draw your own conclusions. Tighar's 'expert' concluded that.

_*"Insufficient Image Resolution.* There are objects of similar size to the missing antenna masts that successfully imaged in the photograph. Therefore, it is improbable that the antenna masts are absent from the photograph for this reason. 


*Obscuration.* There is a single object capable of obscuring the belly antenna masts – the fuselage. For the fuselage to obscure the antenna masts, the film plane would have to be near the horizontal centerline of the fuselage or above. It can be observed from the photograph that the film plane was well below the centerline of the fuselage by the amount of the underside of the wing that has been imaged. Further, nearly the complete port and starboard landing gears have been imaged. Therefore, the fuselage could not have obscured the antenna masts. 


*Missing.* Therefore, through deduction, the antenna masts must be missing from the belly of the fuselage."_

I disagree 100% with his first contention. There are similar sized details which I can't see, even expanding and messing around with the photograph. I wonder if he has looked at as many photographs of antennae and their masts on less than perfect photographs and films as I have in the last thirty years? I would substitute 'probable' for 'improbable' in that second sentence 

His second point is safer, but I don't agree that the fuselage is the only object capable of obscuring* both* masts. I would like to see an analysis to discount the possibility that the port gear leg is not obscuring the fore mast at this angle. I think it is a possibility which has not even been considered. I have already noted that the much more substantial gear leg is very poorly resolved in the image.

The third and concluding point is a brave assertion. I don't think we can be sure either way, but the crucial lack of anyone finding anything on the field after the departure alone should surely urge one towards caution rather than confidence.
To be fair to the analyst (Jeff Glickman) he has used the word 'probable' in his first point and prefaced his final conclusion with the words 'by deduction', before concluding that the masts 'must be missing'. He is certainly a qualified person and entitled to his opinion. I have a problem with his use of language, the conditional 'probable' and certainty of 'must' seem mutually exclusive, but then two nations divided by a common language and all that 

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Aug 6, 2017)

stona said:


> keeps referring to the 'landing mat' at Luke Field? There are several references to it in the report.


In the tropics rain and lots of it would often make landing fields unusable. The solution was to cover the landing field with first a 6 inch thick layer of crushed rock, then use a heavy roller to pack it down, then this layer was coated with emulsified asphalt, and then covered with a second layer of fine stone also rolled down. The resulting "Landing Mat" promoted rapid drainage of rain water.

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## mikewint (Aug 6, 2017)

stona said:


> but they at some stage made a decision to head for St Louis rather than Dakar,


As it turns out AE did make the correct decision. When they arrived at the African coast south and east of Dakar, conditions were very hazy/foggy less than half mile visability. Reaching Dakar which is located on a peninsula jutting out into the Atlantic would have meant either flying into a setting sun in fog and haze or turning back out toward the ocean and then trying to find Dakar with no radio, limited fuel, and fading light. It was safer to turn northeastward and follow the coast to St. Louis.
The French authorities had given Earhart approved routes and they expected her to go where she had said she would go. All of the approved routes across Africa began in Dakar. Failing to land there, if seen as willful disregard of the approved itinerary, might result in the airplane and crew being impounded and fined. If missing Dakar was represented as a navigational mistake, however, especially one for which the female pilot took the blame for not listening to her male navigator, the French authorities might be less likely to hold it against her.


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## mikewint (Aug 6, 2017)

stona said:


> I've been looking into the famous missing antenna.


Steve, yea, I am aware of that contention and there is another one of those "anecdotal" statements made a few years after the flight by an airport worker, that he had found a length of antenna wire at the end of the runway.
R.E. Fullenwider told TIGAR that he "spent some time in Lae during World War Two courtesy of Uncle Sam." As he remembers it, the old-timers there often said they hadn’t been surprised when Earhart was lost because "she left part of her trailing wire antenna laying on the runway"

IMHO it is kind of a moot point with all her other radio problems.
Transmitting Antennas
The high-frequency antenna installed aboard the Electra was the dorsal “Vee” type. The original antenna was a total of 46 feet, doubled back onto itself. This length did not include the lead-in wire. This antenna was by itself 15% longer than optimum; but since the radio equipment had been installed by Bell Labs we must assume that it was tuned properly at that time.

While a bit too long for the HF frequencies the 46 foot length was totally unsuitable for the low-frequency 500 KHz operation, as the total length would be miniscule compared to the wavelength at this frequency. At 500 KHz, the wavelength is 600 meters (1968 feet). Thus Lockheed installed the 250 ft long (1/8 wave) trailing antenna in the “from the factory” Electra

Joseph Gurr, a radio technician privately engaged by Lockheed to check out the communications equipment while the aircraft was under repair at the Burbank factory, proposed that if the fixed H-F Vee antenna could be lengthened, it would serve on both 500 KHz and the high-frequency channels. He moved the antenna mast on the fuselage forward increasing the Vee’s total length to 54 feet. There was a further slight increase in the length of lead-in, because the location of the feed-through insulator was changed to a point lower on the fuselage side. He also removed the Western Electric loading coil used with the trailing wire – a relatively small value of inductance – and substituted a very large, home-made coil. The extra antenna wire did not bring the antenna any closer to a proper length for low-frequency operation; but it may have been just enough, judging by an antenna-current indication alone, to make things appear to be working on 500 KHz.

This was a serious mistake. For the most part, the transmitter’s output power was being dissipated in the coil, rather than radiated by the antenna. Very little R-F was actually going out despite whatever antenna current reading may have been observed.

Any signal radiated by this system on 500 KHz would be extremely weak. To overcome the losses in the loading coil and achieve any meaningful signal output would have required tremendous transmitter power in order to afford being able to waste a lot of R-F – far greater power than the 50 watts produced by the 13 series transmitter. None of this mattered on the final flight as Earhart removed all Morse equipment to save weight. What is important here is whether Gurr’s modifications included the removal of the antenna transfer switch as well. One function of this switch was to remove the loading coil from the antenna circuit on H-F. If the huge homemade coil was left in the circuit all the time, operation on 3105 and 6210 could have been even more affected. The coil could have acted like a radio-frequency choke, blocking part of the transmitted power as well as part of the received signal.

The lengthened antenna was now almost 33% longer than the optimum length specified for the 13 series transmitter, in the H-F range. As for 500 KHz, this extra eight feet made practically no difference. At H-F, however, the extra length radically altered the tuning.

The length of antenna plus extra lead-in was now very close to an odd fraction of a resonant length on both frequencies, 3/16 wavelength at 3105 and 3/8 wavelength at 6210 (about 57 feet in each case). The increase in length meant a radical change in the antenna’s characteristic impedance at both frequencies. Complete retuning of the transmitter was necessary.

In actual practice, these odd fractions of a resonant wavelength are often difficult to properly match. The reason for such difficulties lies in the R-F voltage and current distributions over the length of the antenna wire, and resultant standing waves along the antenna which cause power to be reflected back into the transmitter rather than transmitted out as RF

The doubling-back of the antenna length in the Vee configuration could have played havoc with the antenna’s characteristic impedance, as the two halves of the Vee may have reacted upon each other. Also, a Vee configuration meant that more of the antenna was in close proximity to the metal skin of the aircraft, which could have further affected its operation and tuning.

The transmitter could easily have become so mistuned that power was actually being radiated on the wrong frequencies. If the transmitter were mistuned, the modulation quality would suffer. The signal might become broad and the speech distorted. Indeed, observations were made at Lae, New Guinea, before Earhart’s final takeoff which indicated such distortion on 6210 KHz. It would be interesting to know how much deviation from standard tuning procedure may have been taken by their engineers, but available records do not reveal this.

*Receiver*
Overall, the Model 20 series receiver was, at best, an average radio, built with cost in mind. In terms of the technology of the times, it was hardly the best choice for a flight of this magnitude. It suffered from several design deficiencies.

The most significant was that it seems to have been designed with a view to maximize performance on the lower-frequency bands, 188-420 and either 485-1200 or 550-1500 KHz. This was logical, because in the mid-1930s, many U.S. domestic control towers at civilian airfields were still transmitting on low frequencies below 400 KHz, while listening for aircraft calls on the H-F channels. Two-way H-F was widely employed by the military, but only gradually coming into use by civilian ground stations. The H-F bands in the Model 20 seem to have been an afterthought and these were the two bands that Earhart relied on and used

*Antenna Inputs*
The antenna input circuit of the Model 20 receivers was designed to accept connections from two separate antennas: one for low-frequency Bands 1 and 2, the other for high-frequency bands 3 and 4.

Normally, the high-frequency antenna would be shared with the transmitter, and connected to the receiver through the antenna changeover relay inside the transmitter. The low-frequency antenna could be a separate structure connected to the low-frequency antenna input. Since the Gurr modifications meant the same antenna would now be used for transmitting on both the L-F and H-F bands, however, it becomes unclear how the two inputs on the receiver might have been used. Perhaps they were simply jumpered together. If so, sensitivity degradation may have resulted from connecting the input circuits for the low – and high-frequency bands in parallel, due to one partially detuning the other; but the actual extent is not known.

There is debate as to the exact nature of the receiving antennas aboard the Electra. It is possible that the dorsal Vee antenna was not used for receiving at all, but transmitting only; and that the receiver was not connected through the antenna changeover relay, but directly to one or more antennas installed on the belly of the aircraft. If that is/was the case THEN we have the theory that the belly antenna was destroyed, when the mast or the wire made contact with the ground during the final takeoff from Lae, New Guinea. This scenario may explain why Earhart seems to have been unable to hear any transmissions from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Itasca at Howland Island, as she approached the end of this leg of her flight.

So while the existence of the belly antenna is an established fact, it may or may not have been employed for communications reception at all due to the Gurr modifications.

Bendix DF
The Bendix D/F package simply used a direction-finding adapter or loop coupler to match the loop antenna into the low-frequency antenna input of the Western Electric receiver.

It seems logical to me that some kind of second receiver should have been incorporated; for if the one and only radio receiver was tied up in direction-finding duties, it would not be available for receiving communications. Thus she could not direction find and communicate at the same time
To further complicate things, in such a system, using only the Western Electric receiver with a Bendix coupler unit, any change of reception frequency and/or antenna functions from communications to D/F would involve complex switchology: changing bands, considerable cranking of the coffee-grinder receiver control head, as well as tuning the Bendix coupler. As a result, given the pressures and consequent fatigue of the long flight, operational quirks of the equipment and Earhart’s well known lack of radio acumen, Earhart’s attempts at communications and D/F failed.

The Hooven Radio Compass which had been in the Electra did have its own receiver and required no operator input or monitoring once tuned to the desired broadcast frequency. AE only have had to follow an arrow, on a gauge, which simply pointed to the broadcasting station.

Why did Earhart not have any frequencies used by organizations such as Pan American Airways? This is especially puzzling, since by 1937 Pan Am had an extensive radio system, and direction-finding facilities across the Pacific. Fred Noonan had pioneered the Pacific routes for Pan Am and was well familiar with their system. It’s also puzzling that the two midway “Guard” ships, Ontario and Swan had NO way to communicate with Earhart. All their equipment was LF and she was HF. AE and Noonan were supposed to visually see Ontario as the flew over it in the dark YET neither ship was fitted with any type of special lighting.

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## stona (Aug 7, 2017)

mikewint said:


> The French authorities had given Earhart approved routes and they expected her to go where she had said she would go. All of the approved routes across Africa began in Dakar. Failing to land there, if seen as willful disregard of the approved itinerary, might result in the airplane and crew being impounded and fined. If missing Dakar was represented as a navigational mistake, however, especially one for which the female pilot took the blame for not listening to her male navigator, the French authorities might be less likely to hold it against her.



The author of the article makes the point that between them a decision was made to deliberately head for St Louis rather than Dakar. He doesn't believe that Earhart and Noonan had a divergence of opinion, something sometimes advanced as a reason for missing Howland and ending up somewhere else, depending on to which hypothesis one subscribes.

His analysis of Noonan's navigation is based on his scans of the ORIGINAL chart, not that sold by Tighar.

_"TIGHAR sells a copy of what it claims is this chart but it IS NOT an accurate copy of the actual
chart, markings have been erased and, even more inexplicably, it has added markings and
notations, so its provenance is suspect."_

Which is being quite diplomatic.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Aug 10, 2017)

Steve, obtained a copy of the original from Purdue. Been going over it myself and trying to follow Fred's methods and it's not easy as he uses judgement as much as observed sightings and actually ignores his own observations when he feels that they are incorrect. 
I was hoping to come across some glaring error of Fred's that put them North of Dakar and then AE turning her way North instead of Fred's South recommendation. IT IS just NOT THERE. The story of AE disregarding Fred's navigation advice is pure hogwash. So unfortunately the Dakar navigation sheds no light on them missing Howland. 
They had crossed the African coast exactly where she wanted south of Dakar at or near Bathurst WHICH by the way, had an airfield that had been built in 1934. From Bathurst to Dakar was 10 miles or so while St. Louis was over 90 miles. Another point that shocked me was the shape of the coastline. North of Dakar it runs about 040 T while South it tends 320 T. An 80 degree difference. All she had to do was align the Electra with the coast and read the compass to immediately tell if she was North or South of Dakar. So her story is total BS. She WANTED to go to St. Louis not Dakar all along, possibly because of the extensive Air France facilities located there.
So in short AE did cross the coastline between St. Louis and Dakar, only it was from the land side NOT coming in from over the ocean.
I can post Noonan's charts if you'd like to see them.


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## fubar57 (Dec 23, 2017)



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## mikewint (Dec 23, 2017)

A lot of truth in that. Was her one chance to learn how to operate the direction finder. There were no manuals, no instructions, and none of the controls were labeled. The press turned it into a photo-op and nothing was accomplished. Noonan could get her close to the island but only the direction finder could actually home her in


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## MiTasol (Mar 8, 2018)

Bones discovered on a Pacific island belong to Amelia Earhart, a new forensic analysis claims

Case closed???
OR
Birth of some more conspiracy theories???


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 8, 2018)

MiTasol said:


> Bones discovered on a Pacific island belong to Amelia Earhart, a new forensic analysis claims
> 
> Case closed???
> OR
> Birth of some more conspiracy theories???


Another thread is running this.


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## parsifal (Mar 8, 2018)

I don't think there is anything much new here....
Bones Found on South Pacific Island '99 Percent' Likely to Be Amelia Earhart's, Researcher Says

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## Zipper730 (Mar 8, 2018)

Fascinating to solve one more puzzle about her.


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## stona (Mar 9, 2018)

“Until definitive evidence is presented that the remains are not those of Amelia Earhart, the most convincing argument is that they are hers,”

That is a very strange thing for any trained scientist to say. Jantz is a respectable and highly qualified anthropologist, which is why I'm so surprised. 

*It is up to him, or someone else, to provide definitive or at least compelling evidence that the bones are Earhart's, not the other way round.* If he had said that his hypothesis, based on his assessment of the bones, which differs from others, is that the bones might be Earhart's I would have been happier. Is he looking for funding? Does he need to raise his or his university's profile? Plenty have jumped on the Earhart bandwagon for less noble causes.

His "most convincing argument" is little more than educated conjecture. I think he would have chosen his words more carefully in a court of law.

Cheers

Steve

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## Marcel (Mar 9, 2018)

Yeah, that's my first thought as well. 
But you never know, I don't know this program of his and I saw good results coming from research projects with data that was even more unreliable.


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## Les Kinney (May 16, 2018)

Marcel said:


> Yeah, that's my first thought as well.
> But you never know, I don't know this program of his and I saw good results coming from research projects with data that was even more unreliable.



I stumbled upon this site and thread quite by accident.
I must say, I am impressed with the quality of the comments on this topic.
I though you might be interested in a rebuttal I wrote challenging Jantz's and TIGHAR's finding. 

Les Kinney

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## stona (May 17, 2018)

Nice article. It really confirms how economical with the truth and selective in its use of the scant data available TIGHAR can be.

As one with a scientific background myself I find it depressing how easily and 'authoritative' opinions can be bought from 'experts' in just about any field.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (May 17, 2018)

The operative word here is "opinion" and any scientist is always at a disadvantage in an debate with a non. 
E.G.: Can you flip a coin and get 1000 heads in a row? Well...yes, it is possible. 
Only the actual bones can answer the question and they have so conveniently disappeared. Unfortunately with any biological question there are seldom absolutes. I knew that she had had surgery but had no idea it had been that severe


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## stona (May 17, 2018)

mikewint said:


> Only the actual bones can answer the question and they have so conveniently disappeared. Unfortunately with any biological question there are seldom absolutes.



Not just the bones, but the contrary opinions of other medical professionals who examined them. TIGHAR simply ignores that they were considered male, came from an individual somewhat shorter than Earhart, were older than the date when she and Noonan met their demise and, in the case of the skull, did not show very obvious signs of a medical procedure which Earhart had undergone.
It's not just buying an opinion. It's ignoring a mountain of contrary evidence, or massaging it to suit a different narrative, and buying a _dishonest_ opinion.

I would suggest that the evidence does not support the conclusion, “this analysis reveals that Earhart is more similar to the Nikumaroro bones than 99% of individuals in a large reference sample” but the exact opposite. They could have been from any number of other people but almost certainly not from a Caucasian woman about 5'8" tall

Cheers

Steve


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## mikewint (May 17, 2018)

I have a strong tendency to agree with you. TIGAR certainly has an agenda and after so much time, energy, and money spent it is near impossible for them to just walk away.
The skull would certainly settle things one way or another but drawings and measurements made by Hoodless are questionable. The skull had its right zygoma and malar bones broken off which could obscure the operation on that side, so again more questions than answers


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## Les Kinney (May 17, 2018)

mikewint said:


> I have a strong tendency to agree with you. TIGAR certainly has an agenda and after so much time, energy, and money spent it is near impossible for them to just walk away.
> The skull would certainly settle things one way or another but drawings and measurements made by Hoodless are questionable. The skull had its right zygoma and malar bones broken off which could obscure the operation on that side, so again more questions than answers



To make it clear, TIGHAR would have you believe since the right zygoma and malar bone was broken off it would be impossible to see the results of the Caldwell-Luc procedure. Not necessarily true. It would depend if the whole cheek bone was missing. Doctors Isaac and Hoodless surely would have mentioned that in their analysis?







The Doctors described five teeth still intact but didn't say where they remained. 
Regardless, it's a moot point. Earhart had this procedure on both sides of her skull. As I mentioned in the paper, the results of this procedure would have been immediately observed by a five year old. I find it unusual that Dr. Jantz, who has had a working relationship with TIGHAR for over 10 years, never mentioned the skull in his analysis.

As you correctly mention, TIGHAR can't walk away from Gardner.

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## stona (Jun 28, 2018)

There is an interesting take on Gillespie and his organisation from an ex 'loyal TIGHAR' here. I have the distinct feeling that he feels he wasted his money!

TIGHAR - Finding Amelia or Living the Good Life?

Cheers

Steve


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## mikewint (Jun 29, 2018)

Steve, Gillespie is no different than anyone else who, in effect, dedicate their lives to some particular idea/cause no matter what it might be. It's your pet and you've dedicated years of your life, large amounts of money (yours & others), your reputation, ... It soon becomes literally impossible to reverse course and say "I forked up!!" Tighar is Gillespie's particular tiger and he has to ride it...and natchurally they all do it in supreme comfort.
I worked for several years in the '70s at Fermilab in Batavia, IL. I met and spoke many times with Leon Lederman (Lab director at the time and a Nobel Prize winner) he and his "girlfriend" (high society wife lived in New York) lived in a very large home on Fermilab grounds totally free. The lab paid for everything including a private stable for their horses, furniture, utilities, cars, medical, dental, maintanence, grounds keeping.... He, the director of security, top execs and scientists, hunted and fished (the Fed stocked several of the cooling ponds with game fish and deer in the inner ring...strictly as an experiment, of course) on site. While he was the titular "Head" of the lab he essentially had no actual duties. A traveling figurehead basically.
Einstein lived in much the same manner at Princeton and when his own calculations indicated a Universe he felt was wrong, he introduced the "Cosmological Constant" essentially a fudge factor to make his calculations come out the way he thought they should.
Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker and their tele-evangelistic empire, multiple super luxury homes in vacation-type areas, a theme park, and their own closed community development for the faithful.
The list is endless


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## stona (Jun 29, 2018)

Yet, this year, Lederman at the age of 92 sold his Nobel Prize (for $765,000). Gillespie won't have much to sell. Lederman is a well respected physicist (even if he started a chemist  ) who enjoyed an illustrious career.

Gillespie is a conman, more fair ground shyster than researcher and with more in common with the Bakkers, Popoffs, scientologists, homeopathists or others of that ilk. These people are amoral and prey on the vulnerable, ignorant and gullible.

Cheers

Steve

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## mikewint (Jun 29, 2018)

And I take nothing away from him. Just one example of how one can leverage fame into someone else footing all the bills and then some


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 29, 2018)

Wow, what a scammer!


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## mikewint (Jul 1, 2018)

Yea, I just jealous I couldn't find a nice Cause Celebre to lead along with several thousand dedicated followers and donors to fund my "research center" on Tahiti


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## buffnut453 (Jul 25, 2018)

Aaaannnnndddd....he's at it again!

Dozens heard Amelia Earhart’s final, chilling pleas for help, researchers say


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## stona (Jul 26, 2018)

He probably needs to stump up some cash to sustain his lifestyle...errr...I mean fund his research.

I liked this bit

_"...we are also very much aware that we live in a time of rampant science denial."_

Do some proper science and you might be met with less denial Mr Gillespie. The 'science' that Gillespie is currently doing is best classified as 'pathological science'.

Cheers

Steve


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## GrauGeist (Jul 26, 2018)

If they can find the Lexington and even ID the F4F-3's pilot insignia on the aircraft at a depth of 2 miles, they should be able to find Earhart's Lockheed in/around the reef of Howland.

Otherwise: give up, go home and shut the f**k up...


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## mikewint (Jul 26, 2018)

Discounting TIGAR for a second, trying to do a legitimate scientific-type study of Earhart's disappearance is like trying to study UFOs or the like. The result is almost immediate ridicule. Now don't get me wrong, I do NOT defend TIGAR in any sense. They've, IMHO, got a bad case of tunnel vision and unfortunately, like UFOs, the fakers, con-artists, and 15-minutes of fame nuts are fully on board.
Again, like UFOs, there remain a number of reports that cannot be discounted as known phenomenon or fakes. I would venture to say that the same is probably true for the Earhart radio calls but at this late date I doubt if it is possible to winnow them out.
It would be really wonderful if someone would under take a comprehensive high tech sonar search of the Howland Island sea floor especially in the area where the plane (supposedly) had been on the reef. The remoteness of Howland and therefore the cost are going to make this highly unlikely


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## EdwardMc (Nov 13, 2019)

mikewint said:


> Steve, yea, I am aware of that contention and there is another one of those "anecdotal" statements made a few years after the flight by an airport worker, that he had found a length of antenna wire at the end of the runway.
> R.E. Fullenwider told TIGAR that he "spent some time in Lae during World War Two courtesy of Uncle Sam." As he remembers it, the old-timers there often said they hadn’t been surprised when Earhart was lost because "she left part of her trailing wire antenna laying on the runway"
> 
> IMHO it is kind of a moot point with all her other radio problems.
> ...



It seems that AE was way overconfident to be without decent radio equipment on such a long flight. I read that her radio operator quit the flight because he'd lost confidence in her flying skill.


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