# "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)



## XBe02Drvr (Feb 24, 2022)

So it has begun, the reassembly of the USSR, or maybe even the old Russian Empire.
Hey Fulda, how's your gap?

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 24, 2022)

Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion


Russia has launched a large-scale military attack on its southern neighbour - here's what we know.



www.bbc.com












Russian invasion of Ukraine begins – in pictures


Vladimir Putin announces a military operation in Ukraine with explosions heard across multiple cities and outside eastern regions held by Russian-backed rebels




www.theguardian.com












NATO Chief Condemns Russia’s ‘Brutal Act of War’ Against Ukraine


Jens Stoltenberg said he would convene a summit of alliance leaders following an activation of defense plans, responding to an invasion that has given NATO a new unity of purpose




www.wsj.com

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Anything of interest going on near Taiwan?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Ok gents…

This event is too big of a deal to not discuss. We are literally witnessing an event that was decades in the making and has huge global ramifications.

This thread will remain open. Here are the ground rules…

1. All discussion must pertain to the invasion of Ukraine.

2. No political BS. By political BS I mean NO insulting, ignorant, hate filled Left vs. Right, Liberal vs. Conservative, Trump vs. Biden BS. We don’t need that stuff here on our forum. Everyone has their own beliefs and opinions, but we are friends and family. Lets not ruin that. I’ve lost too many friends already because of it.

This is not up for debate, and the rule will be enforced.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Thread re-opened.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

We are also reviewing the forum’s politics rule to cone to a way to allow discussion without the hateful tripe and arguments that it usually devolves into.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 24, 2022)

There was a documentary made in 2016 by Oliver Stone called Ukraine on Fire. I suggest watching it.

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 24, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> There was a documentary made in 2016 by Oliver Stone called Ukraine on Fire. I suggest watching it.


I've heard of it, not seen it, and wonder how to access it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

I feel so sorry for the children that have to live in fear because of the senseless act of aggression. It breaks my heart.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Sources for all photos: USA Today and Associated Press

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Putin and the Russian military have long put a high value on _maskirovka_ and _provokatsiia. _That's exactly what we've seen here. Present a counter-factual narrative, cite justifications based on actions by the adversary WITHOUT offering any evidence of them...and then do whatever you feel is necessary. 

Logically, I could see a case, based on Putin's statements over the past week, for Russian forces to enter the separatist regions of Donbas to stabilize the front line and act as a deterrent against Ukrainian forces in the region, and use forces in Belarus, Crimea and elsewhere to pressure for a favourable settlement. 

However, my logic clearly doesn't align with Putin's. His actions in the past 24 hrs have gone far beyond anything I expected.

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## Jerad (Feb 24, 2022)

До сьогодні я був виключно читачем вашого форуму, сьогодні після того, що сталося в Києві, можу дати вам інформацію. У мережі багато пропаганди, Російська Федерація перебільшує свої успіхи, показуючи фейки, де над українськими містами піднімають російські прапори. Ситуація складна, але контрольовані, за офіційними даними, збито 7 російських літаків і пару вертольотів. Російська Федерація з боку моря, Білорусі та Придністров’я випустила колібрі на радари та системи протиповітряної оборони. Багато аеродроми також зазнали атаки з повітря. У район Сумської області увійшли сухопутні війська, але їх просування зупинилося в районі Чернігівської області. Я в Києві, скільки буде працювати інтернет - не знаю. За офіційними даними, загинули 40 бійців ЗСУ.
Вибачте, якщо щось важко зрозуміти, я користуюся перекладачем.

Офіційна інформація
Головне про оперативну ситуацію в Україні на прохання глави держави:

Харківський напрямок дуже складний, сили захисту міста працюють надійно;
найбільш проблемна ситуація на півдні. Українські війська ведуть запеклі бої в передмісті Херсона. З окупованого Криму ворог намагається просуватися в бік Мелітополя;
на півночі ворог повільно просувається на Чернігівщину, але є «кому його тримати»;
на Житомирщині – надійна оборона;
У місті Гостомель був заблокований збройний десант, військам наказано його знищити;
серед української армії є втрати, російські воїни потрапили в полон, частина з них перебуває на лікуванні в українських лікарів;
було знищено багато російської авіації та бронетехніки.
джерело
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/...Позиція через 12 годин після початку інвазії:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Until today, I was exclusively a reader of your forum, today after what happened in my city of Kiev, what happened, I can give you some information. There is a lot of propaganda in the network, the Russian Federation overstates its successes, showing fakes where Russian flags are raised over Ukrainian cities. The situation is complicated, but controlled, according to official data, 7 Russian aircraft and a couple of helicopters were shot down. The Russian Federation from the side of the sea, Belarus and Transnistria released Hummingbirds on radars and air defense systems. Many airfields were also attacked from the air. In the area of the Sumy region, ground troops entered, but their advance stopped in the region of the Chernihiv region. I'm in Kiev how long the Internet will work, it's hard to predict. According to official sources, 40 APU soldiers died.



Please be safe my friend. I hope you and your family are ok. 

I am sorry that you and your people have to live through this madness, and for what?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

I hope the Ukrainian army gives them hell every inch.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

This meme was posted this morning in one of my groups over at FB and I about choked on my coffee.

I thought we could use a bit of humor during this sad and unfortunate situation!

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## Crimea_River (Feb 24, 2022)

The 4 Indictments lodged in the Nuremburg trials: (1) crimes against peace (i.e., the planning, initiating, and waging of wars of aggression in violation of international treaties and agreements), (2) crimes against humanity (i.e., exterminations, deportations, and genocide), (3) war crimes (i.e., violations of the laws of war), and (4) "a common plan or conspiracy to commit" the criminal acts listed in the first three counts.

So far, 1 and 4 have been met. Hope the trial starts soon.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

Putin's made a big mistake. The Ukrainians are, I sense, determined to slug it out, by insurgency if necessary, and their terrain is ideal for that, being swampy and forested in the western third. I think he just may have entered into another Afghanistan, but what were his options? Back down and lose face and prestige domestically? He put himself into the knight's fork with his brinksmanship.

My heart hurts for the Ukrainian people. May they defend their homeland.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin's made a big mistake. The Ukrainians are, I sense, determined to slug it out, by insurgency if necessary, and their terrain is ideal for that, being swampy and forested in the western third. I think he just may have entered into another Afghanistan, but what were his options? Back down and lose face and prestige domestically? He put himself into the knight's fork with his brinksmanship.
> 
> My heart hurts for the Ukrainian people. May they defend their homeland.



Agree...my big concern is that armed citizens will be going up against tanks and helicopter gunships. Not sure I like those odds.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

The Ukraine's neighbors are weighing in on the situation:









'Barbaric Act': NATO's Central European Members Condemn Russia's Attack On Ukraine


NATO nations on the alliance’s so-called “eastern flank” condemned Russia’s early morning attack on Ukraine, with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis labeling it a "very grave breach of international law.”




www.rferl.org

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## tomo pauk (Feb 24, 2022)

Again and again, the weakest suffer and will continue to suffer. Prayers and thoughts are with people in Ukraine.

Time to remove that MiG-29K from my sig. (Lame, I know.)

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Apparently Russian paratroops have taken over the Antonov air base which is just 15-20 miles from Kyiv.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree...my big concern is that armed citizens will be going up against tanks and helicopter gunships. Not sure I like those odds.



That's why the terrain matters. The swamps in the west make poor tank country, and the forest therein mitigate the application of airpower. It's not ideal, sure -- no one wants to war in their own country anyway -- but the terrain gives those with a will to take up insurgency a chance.

The Ukrainian military will likely be crushed, but that doesn't mean the Russians can't get literally bogged down in the misadventure.

Here's hoping this isn't the third world war with its seeds in Eastern Europe.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Sanctions clearly mean nothing to Putin. So what do the western allies do now?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Meanwhile on the Pacific Front…









Taiwan reports 9 Chinese aircraft in its air defense zone


Taipei responds to latest entry, coming on day Russia invades Ukraine




asia.nikkei.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I've heard of it, not seen it, and wonder how to access it.


It's on line, I got it through Tubi TV - if you have Roku you can find it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Biden details new Russian sanctions as death toll climbs in Ukraine


Russian troops appear to be advancing on Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. A Ukrainian official says Russia now controls the Chernobyl nuclear site.




www.yahoo.com


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## Marcel (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I feel so sorry for the children that have to live in fear because of the senseless act of aggression. It breaks my heart.


This.

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 24, 2022)

A-Fricken-Men


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## tomo pauk (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sanctions clearly mean nothing to Putin. So what do the western allies do now?



Apart from sanctions and some limited hep to Ukraine? Probably nothing.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Apart from sanctions and some limited hep to Ukraine? Probably nothing.



Those things and, hopefully, bolstering military presence within NATO's defensive mandate, particularly for those nations that have borders with Russia/Belarus/Black Sea.

Maybe now Europe will start funding defence forces at a more serious level...and this has nothing to do with the 2% GDP question. Back when I was a lad, the UK routinely spent 4.0%-5.5% of GDP on defence. Now it's just 2.1%-2.3%. Other European nations made similar reductions over time. Most of those cuts came from the "peace dividend" following the end of the Cold War.
How's that peace dividend looking now?

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine's neighbors are weighing in on the situation:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for the link, Dave. I just subscribed. I figure I can trust Radio Free Europe. I didn't know it was still around.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Thanks for the link, Dave. I just subscribed. I figure I can trust Radio Free Europe. I didn't know it was still around.


You're welcome.

Yep, RFE is still there, doing it's thing.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Estonia has invoked NATO Article 4 which requires NATO countries to meet and discuss the current crisis. Those meetings start tomorrow (Friday) after today's G-7.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin's made a big mistake. The Ukrainians are, I sense, determined to slug it out, by insurgency if necessary, and their terrain is ideal for that, being swampy and forested in the western third. I think he just may have entered into another Afghanistan, but what were his options? Back down and lose face and prestige domestically? He put himself into the knight's fork with his brinksmanship.
> 
> My heart hurts for the Ukrainian people. May they defend their homeland.


Thinking the same, Bro'. I'm no strategist but I couldn't see "Uncle Vlad" not invading, short of Ukraine handing themselves over without a fight. Had he backed down after mobilization, he would have lost his credibility. The good folks at Nato wouldn't take him seriously again. I don't know what his endgame is but I wonder how correct his assessment is of "Western" reaction is. And China (the big one) is probably enjoying this more than should be allowed by law.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Again and again, the weakest suffer and will continue to suffer. Prayers and thoughts are with people in Ukraine.
> 
> Time to remove that MiG-29K from my sig. (Lame, I know.)


Why? Isn't that a Polish MiG?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Estonia has invoked NATO Article 4 which requires NATO countries to meet and discuss the current crisis. Those meetings start tomorrow (Friday) after today's G-7.



I just don’t see what NATO is going to do short of going to war.


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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I just don’t see what NATO is going to do short of going to war.



NATO won't (can't) do anything militarily as an alliance unless a member nation is attacked. I'm hopeful that Putin isn't THAT stupid...but who knows. If a NATO ally is attacked, then Article 5 can be invoked...at which point, it's time to kiss goodbye to the world as we know it.

The most that can reasonably be expected is that NATO member nations will bolster defences. We've already seen that with both the US and UK deploying additional troops to continental Europe.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Well, after posting to this thread, my desktop locked up. Spooky, no?

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

The cursor went bye-bye.


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## tomo pauk (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Why? Isn't that a Polish MiG?



The -29K was the Soviet/Russian development for carrier vessels.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Oh.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

On the other hand, several Eastern nations have pledged direct support of the Ukraine which are NATO members.

So if they get involved, then that creates a situation of NATO involvement via NATO alliances and could create a domino effect, much like how WWI started.

I have a feeling (to which I hope I'm wrong) that this will turn into a fugly mess.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Thinking the same, Bro'. I'm no strategist but I couldn't see "Uncle Vlad" not invading, short of Ukraine handing themselves over without a fight. Had he backed down after mobilization, he would have lost his credibility. The good folks at Nato wouldn't take him seriously again. I don't know what his endgame is but I wonder how correct his assessment is of "Western" reaction is. And China (the big one) is probably enjoying this more than should be allowed by law.



His endgame is the return of Russia’s borders, influence, and control to the German border. The return of the USSR. He will not stop at Ukraine I am afraid. He is already trying to bully Bulgaria, Hungary, Turkey, and Estonia.

NATO has no choice but to draw a line and stick to it.

Remember 1938? Germany walked into Austria. The world stood by. Hitler was emboldened. Next came Czechoslovakia. The world said it was ok to “secure peace.” Hitler was further emboldened. Next came Poland.

If we don’t stand our ground now, its Ukraine today, and Poland tomorrow.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> On the other hand, several Eastern nations have pledged direct support of the Ukraine which are NATO members.
> 
> So if they get involved, then that creates a situation of NATO involvement via NATO alliances and could create a domino effect, much like how WWI started.
> 
> I have a feeling (to which I hope I'm wrong) that this will turn into a fugly mess.



There's a subtle but important difference. The domino effect that led to WW1 was enabled because of mutually-supporting defensive treaties between power blocs. 

Individual NATO member nations are at liberty to provide whatever support to Ukraine that they see fit...but that's not a formal, binding treaty. And just because the US, UK or others provide some support to Ukraine does not equate to "NATO involvement". 

Even if there are forces on the ground in Ukraine from NATO member nations (e.g. training teams), that doesn't mean NATO needs to act if those troops get caught up in the fighting.

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## The Basket (Feb 24, 2022)

So we have the option of Russian domination of Ukraine or all out nuclear war?

That's messed up.

I was hoping logic was there but now it's a box of frogs with extra gravy.

I like reading about world wars. Not being a player.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

Putin did make it clear that he wanted NATO out of Bulgaria and Romania, so if either of those two nations get involved, he will most likely use that as an excuse to claim "NATO involvement", even though, as you mentioned, any nation can act independently.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Putin did make it clear that he wanted NATO out of Bulgaria and Romania, so if either of those two nations get involved, he will most likely use that as an excuse to claim "NATO involvement", even though, as you mentioned, any nation can act independently.



He also demanded that Turkey (a NATO country) shuts down the Bosphorus Strait and publicly support the invasion of Ukraine. He has gone mad.

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## Glider (Feb 24, 2022)

I have the feeling that the Russian forces are not getting along as well as they expected. By this time I would have seen lots of PR videos showing beaten and crushed Ukrainian forces to support the statement that large numbers of the defending forces were laying down their arms. 
There is very little along those lines

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

If the Ukrainian reports are correct, the Russians are advancing but sustaining significant casualties.

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## J_P_C (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Why? Isn't that a Polish MiG?


it is chroatian mig-21um

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Apart from sanctions and some limited hep to Ukraine? Probably nothing.



The Moscow stock exchange lost 40% of its value this morning, and with one of the sanctions being locking Russia out of the international banking system, it will be very difficult for those companies to recover that value. This matters because these are the oligarchs Putin is in symbiosis with, and support his regime.

As a result, the ordinary Russian will be feeling the pinch for a long time to come, I think.

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## The Basket (Feb 24, 2022)

I want to chat about the thin armour of HMS Indefatigable again.

I am genuinely fearful for the future about now.

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## tomo pauk (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Moscow stock exchange lost 40% of its value this morning, and with one of the sanctions being locking Russia out of the international banking system, it will be very difficult for those companies to recover that value. this matters because these are the oligarchs Putin is in symbiosis with, and support his regime.
> 
> As a result, the ordinary Russian will be feeling the pinch for a long time to come, I think.



Strongmen never care how the ordinary people feel.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Strongmen never care how the ordinary people feel.



He sees himself as the next great dictator of the USSR, and the man who brought it back to glory. He can careless about anyone but himself.

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## J_P_C (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree...my big concern is that armed citizens will be going up against tanks and helicopter gunships. Not sure I like those odds.


We will give them as many Spikes and Piorun MANPADS as they will need....

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

We have a lot of armchair strategists positing "if those guys just did this" or "why didn't they do this" etc for earlier wars. Well, this is the real deal. What schemes should be put into effect, now? Here's the chance to really shine and show one's strategic insight now that we're in a situation SIMILAR to '39. Reverse lebensraum if you will. 

I'm not serious. Just venting.

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## Marcel (Feb 24, 2022)

Back to the attack itself. I understand Chernobyl has been taken. And there is fighting on an airfield near Kiev.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Oy.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Unfortunately, I see no happy ending for Ukraine. Ukraine will fall, seize to exist in its current state, and a pro Putin puppet satellite state will be created.

And China will also be emboldened. 

Scary times indeed gentlemen.

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## Marcel (Feb 24, 2022)

Correction, that airfield has been taken.
Our military readiness has been raised, reserve has been called.


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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Correction, that airfield has been taken.



Yep...that was Antonov airfield I mentioned in post #22.

Apparently, Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking and hoping to dislodge the Russian paratroops that landed on the airfield. I suspect it's a race against time as more Russian forces flow in from Belarus in the north.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Russian forces are also laying siege to the port of Mariupol. If that falls, it will give Russia a land bridge between Crimea and the separatist portions of eastern Ukraine.

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## GTX (Feb 24, 2022)

Some interesting analysis:









Here's why the West doesn't know how to fight Putin's Ukraine war


As globalisation rises in the West, Vladimir Putin is encouraging the return of the tribe. He sees the West's individualism as a weakness and his approach has set the world ablaze, writes Stan Grant.




www.abc.net.au

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> So it has begun, the reassembly of the USSR, or maybe even the old Russian Empire.
> Hey Fulda, how's your gap?


With ultimate respect, it was started in 1979!

I bet you (or some other members) know what happened to the rescue forces in desert!!! Eagle Claw or something like it.

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

That shit won't help! Grab a gun and fight the invaders. Show them no mercy.


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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> View attachment 659285
> 
> 
> That shit won't help! Grab a gun and fight the invaders. Show them no mercy.


That sounds like my father!

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Hope the trial starts soon.


Never ever that will happen. I bet on my life.

History repeats itself, don't forget this.

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That sounds like my father!


Or maybe his great grandson, in terms of age difference.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Strongmen never care how the ordinary people feel.



Tell that to the Shah ... or Antonescu ... or the CCCP ... or the Tsar ... or Louis XVI ...

Whether the strongman cares or not often doesn't matter. When the people suffer enough, they often rise up.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some interesting analysis:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Spot on! I had several friends visit Ukraine a few years ago trying to purchase surplus L39s, parts and engines. This was in between several of their "political crises." Very corrupt, everyone sought some kind of kickback, so I've been told.

From what I can see the Ukraine was a political mess, far left and right wing factions against each other to include a large Russian speaking population in the eastern portion of the country (Russian backed rebels) this combined with meddling from Russia and the West didn't help matters. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not supporting Putin and this invasion in any way shape or form, but there's a lot of dynamics here to include regional identity between Ukrainian nationals and pro-Russian supporters (as mentioned in that article)

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## tomo pauk (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Tell that to the Shah ... or Antonescu ... or the CCCP ... or the Tsar ... or Louis XVI ...
> 
> Whether the strongman cares or not often doesn't matter. When the people suffer enough, they often rise up.



Decades/centuries of suffering, then suffering during the revolution, only to replace one strongman with another so the ordinary people can continue with suffering.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We are also reviewing the forum’s politics rule to cone to a way to allow discussion without the hateful tripe and arguments that it usually devolves into.


I quit my account at NavWeaps Forums when the political discussions were quickly taken over by hate-speech, conspiracists, dogmatists, denigrators and followers of pseudoscience . I did my very best to reign it in here. 

I come here to WW2 Aircraft specifically because it eschews politics, like a good pub.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I quit my account at NavWeaps Forums when the political discussions were quickly taken over by hate-speech, conspiracists, dogmatists, denigrators and followers of pseudoscience . I did my very best to reign it in here.
> 
> I come here to WW2 Aircraft specifically because it eschews politics, like a good pub.
> 
> View attachment 659289



We are looking at updating our politics rule to prevent that, but allow healthy political discussions for topics like this one.

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## v2 (Feb 24, 2022)

Is there already an arrest warrant for Putin?


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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

The end of story is way bitter than ongoing war...

Many more shall suffer, phisically or mentally.

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

v2 said:


> Is there already an arrest warrant for Putin?


No, why should be? He has money. More than enough to buy and sell anyone and anything.

Maybe a few privates or corporals, got arrested and even, executed.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We are looking at updating our politics rule to prevent that, but allow healthy political discussions for topics like this one.


Good. I think strict moderation will keep the extremists at bay.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 24, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> No, why should be? He has money. More than enough to buy and sell anyone and anything.


It's a rare Russian leader that retires before he's dead. I think Putin's fear of the Hague (likely sent there by his successors) will keep him in power until he expires.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good. I think strict moderation will keep the extremists at bay.



It will be. We will also present the updated rules to the forum community as an act of transparency and to gain their input before rolling it out. We are not dictators like our friend Putin here, but we must prevent this forum from becoming a cesspool of hate and fighting at the same time.

Enough talk of this for now, though, more to follow when we have it figured out.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Russian police arrest almost 1,000 anti-war protestors.









Russia arrests anti-war protesters amid invasion of Ukraine


Hundreds have already been detained in demonstrations in Russian cities following the Russia's military assault on Ukraine on Thursday.



www.businessinsider.com


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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's a rare Russian leader that retires before he's dead. I think Putin's fear of the Hague (likely sent there by his successors) will keep him in power until he expires.


Well, I bet my lifetime won't reach there!!!

Beside that, I really don't think that Hague is for rich men... They can buy all that place, would cost a single cent for them, comparing their wealth.

The only real things that can end his and his puppet's tyranny, are hot lead and cold still.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Decades/centuries of suffering, then suffering during the revolution, only to replace one strongman with another so the ordinary people can continue with suffering.



I'm not arguing that revolutions actually overcome injustices. I'm arguing that strongmen who don't take into account popular feeling have felt and will continue to feel the sharp edge of that blade.

It's a subtle but important distinction in the context of this discussion. Putin is doing this in part, I believe, to cement his place in Russia history. But it may well turn out that he will do so in a way entirely unforeseen in his scheme. The Law of Unintended Consequences kicks ass.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Law of Unintended Consequences kicks ass.



We can only hope that karma runs over his dogma.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I quit my account at NavWeaps Forums when the political discussions were quickly taken over by hate-speech, conspiracists, dogmatists, denigrators and followers of pseudoscience . I did my very best to reign it in here.
> 
> I come here to WW2 Aircraft specifically because it eschews politics, like a good pub.
> 
> View attachment 659289



I'm a very politically-interested person. What I eschew is demonization, which is the bugbear of healthy discussion. Of course, this relies upon maturity from all involved, and that cannot be assured; so I understand and accept the political rules here _in situ_, and go elsewhere when I want to discuss politics.

Compartmentalization, if you will.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> The end of story is way bitter than ongoing war...
> 
> Many more shall suffer, phisically or mentally.



There should be a sad-face emoticon for this, indicating sad agreement.

I have one in my library but it's wonky:

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm a very politically-interested person. What I eschew is demonization, which is the bugbear of healthy discussion. Of course, this relies upon maturity from all involved, and that cannot be assured; so I understand and accept the political rules here _in situ_, and go elsewhere when I want to discuss politics.
> 
> Compartmentalization, if you will.



Amen, brother. If I may add, I also reject adulation, which is a close-cousin of demonization. 'Fraid I've been around the block (and around governments) too much to believe that any one person/ideology has all the answers. 

From my time as an intel professional, it was recognized that bringing together a group with disparate views ALWAYS results in a better analysis than a group with members who all approach the problem from the same perspective. The same is true in the political world...collaboration and compromise tend to bring stability where discordant, "winner takes all" mentalities tend to destabilize. 

A wise man once said "We can disagree without being disagreeable." I wish more politicians followed that mantra.

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## ARTESH (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There should be a sad-face emoticon for this, indicating sad agreement.
> 
> I have one in my library but it's wonky:
> View attachment 659290


Actually many would talk about war losses, dead, disabled, wounded, captives ...

But no one would talk about how many people have suffered in different ways from this (or any other) war...

Many Ukrainian Artists have deactivated Thier social media accounts...

Many gamers, deleted their accounts ...

No one noticed them, no one cares about them ...

They even hurts more than the war itself.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Amen, brother. If I may add, I also reject adulation, which is a close-cousin of demonization. 'Fraid I've been around the block (and around governments) too much to believe that any one person/ideology has all the answers.
> 
> From my time as an intel professional, it was recognized that bringing together a group with disparate views ALWAYS results in a better analysis than a group with members who all approach the problem from the same perspective. The same is true in the political world...collaboration and compromise tend to bring stability where discordant, "winner takes all" mentalities tend to destabilize.
> 
> A wise man once said "We can disagree without being disagreeable." I wish more politicians followed that mantra.



Damn, I wish more people thought like you. The problem is the extremes on all sides are becoming louder and people are becoming too polarized in a “my way or the highway” way.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

But my way is right.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)




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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> But my way is right.



No it's not!

....and THAT's how the fight started!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Fucking terrorists! (Botton video about the sounds of war)

That poor child. I think of my children and it brings tears to my eyes. I never want them to experience this.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

I have experienced a year of combat, and 10 months of peace keeping in the former Yugoslavia countries, and the children are always the one who suffer the most. Their innocence is robbed of them.

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## pgeno71 (Feb 24, 2022)

From a purely strategic viewpoint, I know Putin stockpiled billions before the invasion, but does Russia really have the manpower and economic where-with-all to occupy Ukraine and fight a potentially stiff insurgency? Also, I am sure he would want to expand to other former Soviet territories, but does he possess the economic/military ability?

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 24, 2022)

I don't think logic has played into his strategy this time. At least with Crimea if gave them a naval base. Ukraine has a lot of natural resources but i don't think its anything Russia does not already have. It comes down to the adage, "You can't expect an unreasonable man to be reasonable."

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> No it's not!
> 
> ....and THAT's how the fight started!


I'd give you a "disagree" but that would only escalate.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

According to an official Ukrainian Government release, Antonov airfield has been recaptured from Russian paratroops that landed there last night. However, it's not clear whether fighting is continuing. I suspect this won't be the last we hear about this part of the fighting.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> According to an official Ukrainian Government release, Antonov airfield has been recaptured from Russian paratroops that landed there last night. However, it's not clear whether fighting is continuing. I suspect this won't be the last we hear about this part of the fighting.



Please let this be true. Give em hell boys!

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Please let this be true. Give em hell boys!


I just imagined them hearing you. They've got a "Don't Tread On Me" flag (in Cyrillic).

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Now I want a "Don't On Tread Me" flag (in Cyrillic).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> No one noticed them, no one cares about them ...



I'm not so sure about this part. Art informs culture and society in important ways.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> But my way is right.



... right over here.

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> But my way is right.


Yes, but is it _extreme-right?_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I have experienced a year of combat, and 10 months of peace keeping in the former Yugoslavia countries, and the children are always the one who suffer the most. Their innocence is robbed of them.



Speaking from my experience, living through the revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1978-79 as a 12-year-old boy, I can attest to this. I grew up much too fast for my own good thanks to bullets and shells.

Wars of any sort inflict scars that last a lifetime.

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## Marcel (Feb 24, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> From a purely strategic viewpoint, I know Putin stockpiled billions before the invasion, but does Russia really have the manpower and economic where-with-all to occupy Ukraine and fight a potentially stiff insurgency? Also, I am sure he would want to expand to other former Soviet territories, but does he possess the economic/military ability?


About economics. Russia has a population of around 145,000,000 people and their economy is roughly as big as the BeNeLux (Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxemburg combined) which has a population of a little less than 30,000,000 people.
So in comparison, Russia isn’t all that rich. I don’t think they can sustain a longer war, which is either a good or a bad thing.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Now I want a "Don't On Me" flag (in Cyrillic).


You can try "не ме тъпчете" which is close: "don't trample me".

And for the bonus, this is Bulgarian, not Russian

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## nuuumannn (Feb 24, 2022)

This reminds me suspiciously of a similar incident that took place in 1938, annexing territory that has a dominant ethnic group as a pretext to greater action. It began with annexing the Crimea and it continues with the Donbass/Luhansk/Donetsk regions. Paratroops attacking strategic points of interest bodes ill and warns us of the real intent behind the Russian advance. Securing the Antonov production facility makes tactical and strategic sense for Russia. "Peacekeeping troops", huh.

On the day Putin made the announcement I was writing an article on military exercises the Ukrainian air force was holding in the country's west, this was named Zemetil (Blizzard) and involved the two Tactical Aviation Brigades that operate Su-27s, as well as MiG-29s, Su-24s and Su-25s. It was a close support, interdiction type exercise against simulated Russian armour. It'll be interesting to see how the UAF get on, as the biggest threat to low-level strikes will be Russia's formidable mobile anti-aircraft batteries. During the 2014 Donbass conflict, the UAF's helicopter brigades suffered high losses to separatist groundfire.

Whilst I am sceptical that Ukraine could defeat a full-blown invasion by Russian forces, particularly with deployable forces already based on Ukrainian soil - there are masses of Il-76s based in Crimea waiting for the signal to deploy troops as we speak, but I do believe the conflict will naturally break down into guerilla warfare, which could be to the defenders' advantage. The most obvious take-away is that either way the civilian population will suffer the most from this.

An excuse to dust off these images of UAF Su-27s...





Su-27 take-off 




Su-27 approach 




Su-27 static

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> From a purely strategic viewpoint, I know Putin stockpiled billions before the invasion, but does Russia really have the manpower and economic where-with-all to occupy Ukraine and fight a potentially stiff insurgency? Also, I am sure he would want to expand to other former Soviet territories, but does he possess the economic/military ability?



I don't think so. ~190,000 troops is roughly 20% of Russia's active-duty army, in a huge country with long miles to guard. Expanding into other former SSRs will require equal if not larger troop commitments -- look at Kazakhstan, much larger than Ukraine.

As for fighting an insurgency in Ukraine without any other expansionism, they're still going to be hard-pressed economically, especially after the sanctions come into play.


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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Yes, but is it _extreme-right?_


No! It's "Anything not forbidden is MANDATORY-right"
Or left. Whatever I'm feeling.

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 24, 2022)

I didn't know you live in Minnesota.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This reminds me suspiciously of a similar incident that took place in 1938, annexing territory that has a dominant ethnic group as a pretext to greater action.Su-27 static



My son and I were talking about this earlier and I told him the same thing: this is no different than Hitler's ploy for the Sudetenland and then digesting the rump Czechoslovak six months later -- same justification, same playbook, perhaps accelerated in pace.

Putin's problem is that he was betting that a Chamberlain would show up, and since none has, his hand has been forced. I think that's why he courted Macron so.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 24, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This reminds me suspiciously of a similar incident that took place in 1938, annexing territory that has a dominant ethnic group as a pretext to greater action. It began with annexing the Crimea and it continues with the Donbass/Luhansk/Donetsk regions. Paratroops attacking strategic points of interest bodes ill and warns us of the real intent behind the Russian advance. Securing the Antonov production facility makes tactical and strategic sense for Russia. "Peacekeeping troops", huh.
> 
> On the day Putin made the announcement I was writing an article on military exercises the Ukrainian air force was holding in the country's west, this was named Zemetil (Blizzard) and involved the two Tactical Aviation Brigades that operate Su-27s, as well as MiG-29s, Su-24s and Su-25s. It was a close support, interdiction type exercise against simulated Russian armour. It'll be interesting to see how the UAF get on, as the biggest threat to low-level strikes will be Russia's formidable mobile anti-aircraft batteries. During the 2014 Donbass conflict, the UAF's helicopter brigades suffered high losses to separatist groundfire.
> 
> ...


I’m surprised over the last year that Ukraine’s mikitary wasn’t upgraded from their Soviet surplus kit. They need F-16s and Leo IIs from surplus Nato stocks.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin's problem is that he was betting that a Chamberlain would show up, and since none has, his hand has been forced. I think that's why he courted Macron so.


I expect Putin expected that to be Trump, but didn’t count on his man losing.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

Putin's buddies are not going to think he's so awesome, now.

Canada and the U.S. just froze their assets and it appears the UK is doing the same.

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## Glider (Feb 24, 2022)

I just found this photo of Russian tanks that are supposed to be entering the fighting. The top cover looks hastily fitted and I wonder if the Javelin AT rockets are making their presence felt

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## buffnut453 (Feb 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> I just found this photo of Russian tanks that are supposed to be entering the fighting. The top cover looks hastily fitted and I wonder if the Javelin AT rockets are making their presence felt
> 
> View attachment 659304



I suspect that structure has a couple of functions: (1) to provide additional stowage, and (2) to deflect hand grenades, molotov cocktails etc. I don't see it having any effect on the efficacy of Javelin missiles.


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## fubar57 (Feb 24, 2022)

World Juniors are slated to be rescheduled for August. Time to do some un-inviting.....that'll learn them

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> I just found this photo of Russian tanks that are supposed to be entering the fighting. The top cover looks hastily fitted and I wonder if the Javelin AT rockets are making their presence felt
> 
> View attachment 659304


I swear, I thought it crashed through a gazebo at first glance.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m surprised over the last year that Ukraine’s mikitary wasn’t upgraded from their Soviet surplus kit. They need F-16s and Leo IIs from surplus Nato stocks.


I thought I read something about that a few years ago. Neither NATO nor the Ukrainians wanted to tick off Putin.


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 24, 2022)

Supposedly the Javelins given to them by the West have knocked out a number of T-72 tanks. British NLAW's are also taking a toll


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## special ed (Feb 24, 2022)

If I may add, I have been thinking much the same as Nuuumannn. Being a history nut, I see the similarities in the beginnings of both WW! & WW2. Just as in history, Russia will take Ukraine with only lip service from the world. Then, the next step, just as Hitler took Poland, Putin will take Bulgaria or Romania. Still no action by those having treaties but possible declarations. Again the Phoney War or Sietzkrieg. Then when Putin tries to take Poland, the world will begin to actually fight. This next one may last more than a decade or two.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> I just found this photo of Russian tanks that are supposed to be entering the fighting. The top cover looks hastily fitted and I wonder if the Javelin AT rockets are making their presence felt
> 
> View attachment 659304



The "top-cover" is explosive-reactive armor. It explodes when an incoming round impacts it. It has a full sheath of armor underneath. This reactive explosion adds to the effective protection of the inherent armor without adding the weight of more steel plates. The cage over the top is designed to protect against top-shoot rounds. This is not an improvisation.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

special ed said:


> If I may add, I have been thinking much the same as Nuuumannn. Being a history nut, I see the similarities in the beginnings of both WW! & WW2. Just as in history, Russia will take Ukraine with only lip service from the world. Then, the next step, just as Hitler took Poland, Putin will take Bulgaria or Romania. Still no action by those having treaties but possible declarations. Again the Phoney War or Sietzkrieg. Then when Putin tries to take Poland, the world will begin to actually fight. This next one may last more than a decade or two.


Don't think that Romania or Bulgaria will be a pushover, though - plus they are NATO nations.
They will hit any Russian advances head-on and make such an attempt very costly.

As far as the "cages" atop the Russian armor, these are field mods as a result of previous fighting in the eastern Ukraine, where they were attacked with improvised weapons.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 24, 2022)

special ed said:


> If I may add, I have been thinking much the same as Nuuumannn. Being a history nut, I see the similarities in the beginnings of both WW! & WW2. Just as in history, Russia will take Ukraine with only lip service from the world. Then, the next step, just as Hitler took Poland, Putin will take Bulgaria or Romania. Still no action by those having treaties but possible declarations. Again the Phoney War or Sietzkrieg. Then when Putin tries to take Poland, the world will begin to actually fight. This next one may last more than a decade or two.


We could use a "you scared the crap outta me" award.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)



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## nuuumannn (Feb 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m surprised over the last year that Ukraine’s mikitary wasn’t upgraded from their Soviet surplus kit.



The problem is Ukraine is not a wealthy country and can't really afford an escalation in defence expenditure, not to mention having to restock its forces with the continuing Donbass conflict, which never really stopped. Its best hope is supply of weaponry through the West now overt Russian occupation has begun in the East. Britain has supplied hand held anti-tank weaponry to the country, which will prove useful in guerilla style warfare of the type that's been conducted in the country as of late.

It's interesting to watch the state of the war - trench warfare has proven necessary as large parts of the combat arena are flat plains, with the odd village here and there that usually gets flattened by artillery, followed by hurried advances to the next objective, where new trenches are dug. The frontline is for the most part, up to this point relatively static, with movement between the two sides confined to the taking of towns and villages in and around the front. The separatists remain in control of the East and with more substantial and overt Russian help - let's face it, the Russians have been in Ukraine from the outset - that's not going to change very soon and the frontline will progressively move further west as the Russian influence will be a more mobile approach to territory occupation.

It's interesting to look at Google maps. Take a look at the coastal areas between the cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk in the south of the country on the Sea of Azov, which contains the border of the Donetsk region, The Donbass, which was the frontline, and trenches and roughly hewn bunker sites can readily be made out in the terrain. If you look closely you can see in some of the smaller villages, the destruction wrought from shelling. Entire villages have been destroyed.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


>




Unfortunately, all the soldiers on the small island were killed.











2022 Snake Island campaign - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 24, 2022)

Here's some wishful hope - I doubt it's true but it's a great story!









The Ghost of Kyiv, Ukraine's urban legend of a hero ace pilot


If you have been following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, you might've already stumbled upon the urban legend of 'The Ghost of Kyiv'. Twitter is going wild with the alleg




www.marca.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here's some wishful hope - I doubt it's true but it's a great story!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Sometimes a fabricated legend with a mesage of hope can ignite a spark.

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## nuuumannn (Feb 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unfortunately, all the soldiers on the small island were killed.



"Idi Nahui!" Brilliant!

Sadly the Ukrainians have no navy to speak of. That Moskva cruiser is a powerful thing, look at those cruise missile launchers, deadly supersonic things that are extremely difficult to counter if all fired simultaneously. Even the best See-wizz would find it hard to knock them all down. This was the tactic that the Kiev Class cruisers and their replacements as offensive elements of the Russian navy were based around. An American carrier would find it a very difficult prospect to shoot down every one, which will be what's needed because just one hit is gonna be a bad day for whatever's on the receiving end of those things. The Kiev carried 24 of those big Bazalt supersonic cruise missiles, I don't know how many that Moskva carries, but they'll be equally if not more potent.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 24, 2022)

Ukrainians are reporting 800 Russian casualties.

Not sure the validity of this, but if true, the Ukranians are holding on well and putting up a good fight.









Ukraine-Russia: Kyiv Near 'Catastrophe,' Berdyansk Falls, UN Session Called


Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned the capital now "lacks the infrastructure necessary to receive food and medical deliveries."




www.newsweek.com

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## nuuumannn (Feb 24, 2022)

This clip shows the helicopter assault in Kiev's north against the Antonov Airport, note the Kamov Ka-50 helicopter downed in the exchange. It's the next clip after the dude putting on his Press flak jacket.









Explosions heard in Kiev and other cities after Russia declares war on Ukraine


Missile strikes have hit Ukrainian command centres in cities including Kiev and Kharkiv




www.independent.co.uk


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## GrauGeist (Feb 24, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> An American carrier would find it a very difficult prospect to shoot down every one, which will be what's needed because just one hit is gonna be a bad day for whatever's on the receiving end of those things.


However, a USN Carrier task Force has cruisers and frigates that are bristling with countermeasures for such a situation.
They'll also lock on the source and counter-battery even while they're swatting the last of the inbound missiles.

The radar on the Cruisers was sensative enough to track 16" shells fired on Beruit back in the 80's - not much will get past them.


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## nuuumannn (Feb 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, a USN Carrier task Force has cruisers and frigates that are bristling with countermeasures for such a situation.
> They'll also lock on the source and counter-battery even while they're swatting the last of the inbound missiles.
> 
> The radar on the Cruisers was sensative enough to track 16" shells fired on Beruit back in the 80's - not much will get past them.



It's not a matter of tracking them, it's bringing them down. 24 missiles launched in waves four every few minutes is going to stretch the defences, no doubt about it. I have no doubt the US Navy would not allow itself to be put in a position where a Russian warship _could_ launch its cruise missiles at the task force, but bear in mind that if it did happen, the surface fleet would be supported by submarine launched cruise missiles, joined by cruise missiles launched from aircraft such as the Backfires, all of which could do a heck of a lot of damage, if such a scenario were to happen. To believe that_ every_ missile in such a concentrated attack would be shot down is a bit of a stretch, even for modern defences. It just takes one.

During the 70s and 80s the US Navy ships were not as well defended with CIWS as they are now and it's unlikely that a massed launch of these missiles against a carrier strike group would result in every missile shot down. Even the Bazalt was supersonic.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

The defense layer around a task force is really impressive.
Aside from the CAP over the fleet, Cruisers alone carry about 122 missiles each as part of the Mark 41 missile system equipped with the SM-6 and they are at the ready 24/7 - this has been a maturing new threat upgrade in answer to the Chinese navy's offensive systems, which Russia lags behind.

Of course, if any enemy missiles get past the SM-6, there's the air-launched defenses and closer in, the Phalinx - in return, launch points are marked and targeted.

It would be an ugly endeavor to attack a USN Carrier task Force.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m surprised over the last year that Ukraine’s mikitary wasn’t upgraded from their Soviet surplus kit. They need F-16s and Leo IIs from surplus Nato stocks.


there is no something like "surplus NATO stocks" - lead time for prime military equipment are years now - two years ago Poland ordered F-35 - start of delivery has been set up no sooner than 2028, the same with every possible piece of military hardware from US - lead time for most of the spares is 8-"who knows?" months - this the relity of "corporate culture" /"our lawyer will analyse this" world

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here's some wishful hope - I doubt it's true but it's a great story!
> 
> 
> 
> ...





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sometimes a fabricated legend with a mesage of hope can ignite a spark.


Back in the 1990s an ex FB111 Wizzo, name of Dale Brown wrote a novel, _Chains of Command, _in which this very scenario, in this very place, under these very circumstances, takes place. The young Ukranian "ace in a day" even flew a MiG29. Talk about life imitating art! (If you can call such a trashy action novel "art".)
Dale was stationed at the SAC base right next to our commuter crew base, and had started trying to write novels while he was still on active duty. Never met the guy, but ran into his reputation a couple times, as he was a bit of an anomaly in the culture of SAC. There's a ne'er do well Wizzo in the book who doesn't fit in, and whom I suspect to be a bit autobiographical. Don't think I'll offend anyone by revealing that the book ends with the madman Russian dictator being decapitated in a joint US-Ukranian surgical nuclear strike. Will Putin follow the script? Stay tuned.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> there is no something like "surplus NATO stocks" - lead time for prime military equipment are years now - two years ago Poland ordered F-35 - start of delivery has been set up no sooner than 2028, the same with every possible piece of military hardware from US - lead time for most of the spares is 8-"who knows?" months - this the relity of "corporate culture" /"our lawyer will analyse this" world


The F-35 isn't surplus.
The F-16, F-15, F-18, etc. is surplus as newer models are entered into service.

As for the F-35, it's being manufactured in a non-war environment, meaning that it's manufacturing is done at a relaxed pace, with orders processed in chronological order.

This is not "corporate culture" (nice "new age" catch-word, by the way), but standard business practice.

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## msxyz (Feb 25, 2022)

Nothing will happen to Romania or any other NATO nation, unless somebody with criminal intentions will trigger a false flag attack. US and Russian forces are having close encounters over the skies of Syria for years but they're highly trained and professional individuals. And nobody knows the value of life more than a soldier with field experience. Not the paper pushers behind their desks, but those who put their lives on the stake every day.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if, in some weeks, China will offer to act as a mediator and peacekeeper in Ukraine. They would accomplish two goals: protect one of their major foreign source of food and strike another blow at the US influence in Europe.

Europe in all of these will have nothing to say, beyond the usual empty talks. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place and even if all the media here are aligned to US-UK views, there's a growing discontent against NATO and the US, especially after the decades long war on terror, the so called 'arab springs' and the untimely ousting of Gheddafi, which caused more harm than good to all Europe (Ironically all the gas and oil coming from Libya would have helped in this situation).

As usual, the only ones winning in this war are the weapons manufacturers: after all, somebody will have to replace all that damaged hardware...

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The "top-cover" is explosive-reactive armor. It explodes when an incoming round impacts it. It has a full sheath of armor underneath. This reactive explosion adds to the effective protection of the inherent armor without adding the weight of more steel plates. The cage over the top is designed to protect against top-shoot rounds. This is not an improvisation.


the top cover is roof weled out of the steel bars just to add aditional protection to the Javelin which is "top attack" missile - definitely is giving some level protection boost, especially combined with ERA armour bricks on the top of the turret, from other hand - hard to expect it is very effective


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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

We know it is difficult to keep a nice political-free discussion about current situations. It's because of this we always pushed the non-political rule. We're trying to find a balance here which is difficult at best, not to apply censorship, but keeping things clean. To me the following post is might be over the edge already as it also handles internal European politics that don't handle Ukraine directly (Libya), although I can understand why the poster was triggered to write this. Whether I agree or not is irrelevant, but I warn all of you to not go down that route. This is not meant to slam msxyz here but I use his post as an example what I think we shouldn't do.

This is an experiment. If we cannot make this work, we'll have to go back to the very strict "no-politics" rule and we'll have to close the thread.



msxyz said:


> Nothing will happen to Romania or any other NATO nation, unless somebody with criminal intentions will trigger a false flag attack. US and Russian forces are having close encounters over the skies of Syria for years but they're highly trained and professional individuals. And nobody knows the value of life more than a soldier with field experience. Not the paper pushers behind their desks, but those who put their lives on the stake every day.
> 
> However, I wouldn't be surprised if, in some weeks, China will offer to act as a mediator and peacekeeper in Ukraine. They would accomplish two goals: protect one of their major foreign source of food and strike another blow at the US influence in Europe.
> 
> ...

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## wlewisiii (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


>



11 women and 2 men, border guards - basically cops. All killed by the Russians. 

Edit to add: The Battle of Snake Island Yeah, it's wiki but follow the links for more info.

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## msxyz (Feb 25, 2022)

Sorry I didn't mean to go over the edge into dangerous territory with my post  I will refrain from touching any subject that isn't technical or historically related to aviation. By all means, delete my earlier post if you feel it's the right thing to do. I understand.


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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

msxyz said:


> Sorry I didn't mean to go over the edge into dangerous territory with my post  I will refrain from touching any subject that isn't technical or historically related to aviation. By all means, delete my earlier post if you feel it's the right thing to do. I understand.


No no, it's just that we'll have to find a good balance here and we'll have to do that together. But that might be an utopia. I don't know, yet.

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## ARTESH (Feb 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> 11 women and 2 men, border guards - basically cops. All killed by the Russians.
> 
> Edit to add: The Battle of Snake Island Yeah, it's wiki but follow the links for more info.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> there is no something like "surplus NATO stocks"…


Well, perhaps Ukraine's ex-Warsaw Pact neighbors have warehouses full of Soviet smallarms. Time to start cleaning off the cosmoline.

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 25, 2022)

Ukraine launched missiles against a Russian Air Base















Russian Military Base Blown Up as Ukraine Fights Back


Video shows a huge explosion at an air base in Millerovo, Rostov from what appears to be a Ukrainian missile strike.




www.newsweek.com

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, perhaps Ukraine's ex-Warsaw Pact neighbors have warehouses full of Soviet smallarms. Time to start cleaning off the cosmoline.


we have 30 years from warsaw pact dissolution - are you sure WP magazines have been as vast like NATO ones? - i dont think so... main possesor of the stocks was USSR with huge part of this has been located on... Ukraine. Other WP countries had "something for the good start" - after this majority of supplies should be provided by Big Brother. Soviets havent tolerated high tech weapon development at their... allies???

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> the top cover is roof weled out of the steel bars just to add aditional protection to the Javelin which is "top attack" missile - definitely is giving some level protection boost, especially combined with ERA armour bricks on the top of the turret, from other hand - hard to expect it is very effective



That's what I pointed out, albeit without your more-elegant wording.

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## ThomasP (Feb 25, 2022)

A significant part of the 'gazebo' on top of the tanks is to protect against sniper fire in built up areas, ie from higher elevations such as apartment building high rises and business offices.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Feb 25, 2022)

Gees, that last picture.......


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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Ukraine launched missiles against a Russian Air Base
> 
> View attachment 659343
> 
> ...


That yellow object on the pavement is a standard tow bar used on many Russian and East Bloc aircraft


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> That yellow object on the pavement is a standard tow bar used on many Russian and East Bloc aircraft


yes and no - tow bars are aircraft type specific - this one is for Su27 family

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

It appears that Ukraine forces (4th Rapid Reaction Brigade) retook Hostomel (Antonov) airport from the Russian paratroopers (11th Seperate Guards Air Assault Brigade).

Not sure about casualties on either side (numbers are all over the place), but the An-225 seems to have survived the fighting (so far).


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## buffnut453 (Feb 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It appears that Ukraine forces (4th Rapid Reaction Brigade) retook Hostomel (Antonov) airport from the Russian paratroopers (11th Seperate Guards Air Assault Brigade).
> 
> Not sure about casualties on either side (numbers are all over the place), but the An-225 seems to have survived the fighting (so far).



Russia is now claiming to have taken Antonov airfield. Looks like Ukrainian forces weren't able to maintain the tactical advantage.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russia is now claiming to have taken Antonov airfield. Looks like Ukrainian forces weren't able to maintain the tactical advantage.


If so, it was a valiant effort by the 4th and more important, threw off Putin's timeline for a quick invasion.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

I don’t think Putin has met any of his objectives for the first day of the invasion. I don’t think he believed Ukrainian resistance would be as tough. That might be why is apparently now willing to negotiate.

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t think Putin has met any of his objectives for the first day of the invasion. I don’t think he believed Ukrainian resistance would be as tough. That might be why is apparently now willing to negotiate.


He demands demilitarisation first. That doesn’t sound like he’s willing to, but more like a diversion.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> yes and no - tow bars are aircraft type specific - this one is for Su27 family


It looked like some of the ones I used - they worked on MiG-15, 17s and L29s IIRC


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## ARTESH (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t think Putin has met any of his objectives for the first day of the invasion. I don’t think he believed Ukrainian resistance would be as tough. That might be why is apparently now willing to negotiate.


Back in 1980, in 3rd day of war, Saddam Hussein talked about negotiations... 

So many stories about reasons behind this decision, but I go with this one:

He didn't meet any of his political or military goals.

IMO, same happened here. But with different outcome, this time. Unknown by now, yet to be discovered.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> He demands demilitarisation first. That doesn’t sound like he’s willing to, but more like a diversion.



Yeah….I fear the consequences of the Ukrainian military don’t disarm. I see a real risk of atrocities by Russian forces, particularly as the fighting gets messier in the urban areas or ground that’s beneficial for insurgents.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah….I fear the consequences of the Ukrainian military don’t disarm. I see a real risk of atrocities by Russian forces, particularly as the fighting gets messier in the urban areas or ground that’s beneficial for insurgents.



I was just coming here to post this article I picked up on NPR:

_
Amnesty International is accusing Russia of launching indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine, which it said could amount to war crimes.

"The Russian military has shown a blatant disregard for civilian lives by using ballistic missiles and other explosive weapons with wide area effects in densely populated areas." Agnes Callamard, Amnesty International's Secretary General, said in a statement.

"Some of these attacks may be war crimes," she added. "The Russian government, which falsely claims to use only precision-guided weapons, should take responsibility for these acts."

The organization used satellite, photographic and video evidence to document three incidents where it said the Russian military used inaccurate weapons which struck civilian areas.

The deadliest strike hit a hospital building in Donetsk, killing four civilians and wounding 10 others. Donetsk is a breakaway region in eastern Ukraine, and Russia recently stoked tensions by recognizing it as independent.

Amnesty International's weapons investigator used photos from the scene to determine that a 9M79 Tochka ballistic missile, which is extremely inaccurate, was used in the attack. Hospitals are protected from being targeted in war under international law.
_









Russia invades Ukraine live updates: Russian advance on Ukraine's capital appears slower than the Kremlin expected


A senior U.S. defense official says Russian troops have not yet taken any population centers and appears to have lost “a bit of momentum.” Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Ukraine’s military to end its resistance and cooperate with Russia’s military, asking Ukraine’s military to seize...



www.npr.org





I don't think anyone's been under many illusions about the Russians being willing to commit war-crimes, whether or not the Ukrainians disarm. And of course they won't disarm, rightfully so. Negotiations at that point could only be a sham -- like an unarmed victim negotiating with his robber.

It follows that this is simply a Russian ploy to message, "But hey, we _tried_ to settle this, we wanted to end it."

Typical Putin bullshit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> He demands demilitarisation first. That doesn’t sound like he’s willing to, but more like a diversion.



It very well could be. The man is crooked dictator. Everything he does is calculated and for his benefit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah….I fear the consequences of the Ukrainian military don’t disarm. I see a real risk of atrocities by Russian forces, particularly as the fighting gets messier in the urban areas or ground that’s beneficial for insurgents.



Apparently the Russians are making apartment buildings identifying them as bomb targets.

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

On the meantime, Russia is not allowed to participate in the European Song Contest. That’ll teach them!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I was just coming here to post this article I picked up on NPR:
> 
> 
> _Amnesty International is accusing Russia of launching indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine, which it said could amount to war crimes.
> ...



It could be an attempt to lure out the government.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> On the meantime, Russia is not allowed to participate in the European Song Contest. That’ll teach them!



Or host the Champions League. Give em the red card UEFA!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It could be an attempt to lure out the government.



That's a possibility, though I imagine it would start with low-level deputies.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Agreed


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or host the Champions League. Give em the red card UEFA!



Formula One has also cancelled the Sochi race.

I'm waiting for the EU to stop bickering so we can bar Russia from the SWIFT protocols. That would cut them off from the vast majority of the world's financial tools and prevent them from selling debt or trading in dollars.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

With all this going on, how has the I.S.S. and future missions been affected? I can't see people from other nations hitching rides up there from Baikonor.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

_Russian forces moving towards Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv are “meeting more resistance than they expected,” a senior defense official said Friday. 

“I can't give you an exact geographic location of where they are, but they are not moving on Kyiv as fast as what we believe they anticipated they would be able to do,” the official told reporters. 

“In general, the Russians have lost a little bit of their momentum,” the official later added. 

The official said Russian troops haven't taken any population centers and Russia does not have air superiority over Ukraine as “Ukrainian air defenses are still working,” and the country still has air and missile defenses. 

The Russians are continuing to advance into three major areas of Ukraine since beginning an assault on the country early Thursday morning, local time. Kremlin troops are advancing toward Kyiv from Belarus; into the Kharkiv area in the east, Ukraine’s second largest city; and from Crimea in the south towards Kherson, which sits on a major river, the official said. 

Russian forces moving toward Kherson have also appeared to split off to head to the northeast “in the direction of Mariupol and the Donbas region,” the official added. 

The U.S. assessed Russian forces have fired more than 200 missiles into Ukraine since the start of the invasion.

[...]

The official also confirmed that there is a Russian “amphibious assault” underway to the west of Mariupol along the Ukrainian coast. The assault is coming from the Sea of Azov, with indications that the Russians “are putting potentially thousands of naval infantry ashore there.” 

[...]

Of the total Russian forces amassed near Ukraine ahead of the invasion, Moscow has used “about a third of their combat power” as of Friday, the official said. 

“That does not mean that they will not commit more, I’m just giving you a snapshot of what we’re seeing right now,” they added. _









US defense official: Russians ‘meeting more resistance’ than they expected


Russian forces moving toward Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv are “meeting more resistance than they expected,” a senior defense official said Friday. “I can’t give you a…




thehill.com


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## GTX (Feb 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I don't think logic has played into his strategy this time. At least with Crimea if gave them a naval base. Ukraine has a lot of natural resources but i don't think its anything Russia does not already have. It comes down to the adage, "You can't expect an unreasonable man to be reasonable."


I think it does have a certain logic...if you think the way Putin does about reforming the old Russian empire and facing what he sees as a weak and directionless 'West'. The article I posted earlier at Reply #64 touches upon this. If you are interested in more, I highly recommend Stan Grant's latest book (see below) which covers both Russia and China amongst others.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

From Poland to Ukraine - just crossed the border for unloading.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

An interesting side note to all of this:

the two "people's republics" in the Ukraine that Putin is "liberating", Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic, have an obvious Soviet style setup and the LPR's "national" emblem is even a Soviet style red star encompassed by sheafs of wheat.

They are also using the .SU domain for their websites.

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## GTX (Feb 25, 2022)

special ed said:


> If I may add, I have been thinking much the same as Nuuumannn. Being a history nut, I see the similarities in the beginnings of both WW! & WW2. Just as in history, Russia will take Ukraine with only lip service from the world. Then, the next step, just as Hitler took Poland, Putin will take Bulgaria or Romania. Still no action by those having treaties but possible declarations. Again the Phoney War or Sietzkrieg. Then when Putin tries to take Poland, the world will begin to actually fight. This next one may last more than a decade or two.


I don't think it would be so much Bulgaria or Romania as they were never really part of the 'Russian/Soviet empire'. I would more worried if I was in one of the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia or Lithuania since they were once part of said empire.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It looked like some of the ones I used - they worked on MiG-15, 17s and L29s IIRC




















for the russians towbars as well FOD coovers or weather protection blankets are part of 1:1 aircraft equipment set, in difference to NATO they never tried standardize this part of GSE

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Formula One has also cancelled the Sochi race.
> 
> I'm waiting for the EU to stop bickering so we can bar Russia from the SWIFT protocols. That would cut them off from the vast majority of the world's financial tools and prevent them from selling debt or trading in dollars.



I don’t understand why this has not been done yet.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> With all this going on, how has the I.S.S. and future missions been affected? I can't see people from other nations hitching rides up there from Baikonor.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> I don't think it would be so much Bulgaria or Romania as they were never really part of the 'Russian/Soviet empire'. I would more worried if I was in one of the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia or Lithuania since they were once part of said empire.



Finland was part of Tsarist Russia. The Law of Unintended Consequences kicks ass, though. This war ostensibly started over Putin's wanting to prevent an expansion of NATO to the Russian border ... but Finland's Prime Minister is saying that this invasion will change the NATO debate in her country.

Both Sweden and Finland will be in attendance at today's NATO summit.

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> I don't think it would be so much Bulgaria or Romania as they were never really part of the 'Russian/Soviet empire'. I would more worried if I was in one of the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia or Lithuania since they were once part of said empire.


First there is one huge difference between Baltic states and Ukraine - landscape. If russian army will try to push there the same style like on Ukraine they will live their bones in forests. Second Baltic states are NATO members - article 5 - we will be in full out war with Russia the same moment they will put their foot on wrong side of the border.

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## special ed (Feb 25, 2022)

A neighbor was talking to a man I didn't know about the Ukraine war. My neighbor said that Putin wanted to be the man that restored the old Russian Empire. The man said, "Let 'em have it." I stuck in at this point and said, "Then he will want Romania, Bulgaria and Poland." "So, let 'em have it" I countered, "What if he wants East Germany back?"
"I don't care" I then said, "What if he wants Alaska back?" "What?" I said, "Didn't you know we bought Alaska from Russia. They thought they put one over on us because there was nothing there. Now we have oil wells, pipelines and gold mines and lots of US citizens there. I can see why he might want it back now." At that point, the unknown man decided the conversation had turned silly and he had somewhere important to be. Another one who slept through history class.

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## swampyankee (Feb 25, 2022)

Putin is following in his immediate forebears -- Lenin and Stalin -- for the same reasons. He's using different words, but no difference.

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## GTX (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> First there is one huge difference between Baltic states and Ukraine - landscape. If russian army will try to push there the same style like on Ukraine they will live their bones in forests. Second Baltic states are NATO members - article 5 - we will be in full out war with Russia the same moment they will put their foot on wrong side of the border.


Good point re the NATO aspect - I had forgotten they had already joined.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> I don't think it would be so much Bulgaria or Romania as they were never really part of the 'Russian/Soviet empire'. I would more worried if I was in one of the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia or Lithuania since they were once part of said empire.


Bulgaria does have historic ties to the Rus peoples, including introducing the Cyrillic language to the Kievs.

More recently, the Russians helped the Bulgarians defeat the Ottomans (including the epic battle at Shipka Pass).

None of that matters, though. What matters is that Russia (Putin, rather) sees it's former post WWII European territorial gains as it's rightful property.
This would be:
Romania
Poland
Hungary
Albania
Bulgaria
East Germany
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Slovakia
Croatia
Serbia
Slovenia
etc., etc....

And the Baltic region was held by several powers long befor the Russian Empire, particularly Germans like the Teutonic order and Poland.
The Russian Empire managed to take control of the region from Sweden in the 1700's.
So, technically speaking, Sweden gets the Baltic states, not Russia

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t understand why this has not been done yet.


That’s ready to explain. Some European countries are afraid they will suffer as much of this action as Russia and there are not prepared to make the sacrifice.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> That’s ready to explain. Some European countries are afraid they will suffer as much of this action as Russia and there are not prepared to make the sacrifice.



Then they should buck up. War is hard.

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Then they should buck up. War is hard.


Sure, but we cannot force them.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Sure, but we cannot force them.



Events have a way of imposing themselves on people ... without regard to any desires.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 659367
> 
> View attachment 659368
> 
> ...


Very cool! I see the L39 towbar - I used a similar one without the cables - when we towed we were careful not to put much pressure on the nose. It seemed that towbar worked on the L29 as well but many operators here in the states would make their own. I think it worked on the MiG-15


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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Events have a way of imposing themselves on people ... without regard to any desires.


The European countries still are all autonomous countries, something which, after the current events, is even more precious. Therefore they are allowed to have their own choice as much as we regret it. Wether it has been the right choice, only time will tell. I know my government fought hard to get that proposal through but in vain for now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> The European countries still are all autonomous countries, something which, after the current events, is even more precious. Therefore they are allowed to have their own choice as much as we regret it. Wether it has been the right choice, only time will tell. I know my government fought hard to get that proposal through but in vain for now.



Right, and now of all times is not the time for recriminations.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Very cool! I see the L39 towbar - I used a similar one without the cables - when we towed we were careful not to put much pressure on the nose


oh yes - frontal undercarriage is pretty soft element - needs to be handled with extra caution in most of the airplanes


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## GTX (Feb 25, 2022)

Speaking of potential future 'hot spots', let's not forget the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Sure, but we cannot force them.








But I don’t like it…

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Speaking of potential future 'hot spots', let's not forget the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad:
> 
> View attachment 659372


i think Belarus have been painted wrong color on this map....

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, and now of all times is not the time for recriminations.


Isn’t it? Then why does NATO not more than shout? It’s not that simple. There always other things at stake and what’s at stake is for everybody different. People forget that the EU it’s nota country and cannot always act in unity. Even though I regret that sometimes. But we’re straying. Let us not go that way.


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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 659373
> 
> 
> But I don’t like it…


Same here.

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 25, 2022)

special ed said:


> A neighbor was talking to a man I didn't know about the Ukraine war. My neighbor said that Putin wanted to be the man that restored the old Russian Empire. The man said, "Let 'em have it." I stuck in at this point and said, "Then he will want Romania, Bulgaria and Poland." "So, let 'em have it" I countered, "What if he wants East Germany back?"
> "I don't care" I then said, "What if he wants Alaska back?" "What?" I said, "Didn't you know we bought Alaska from Russia. They thought they put one over on us because there was nothing there. Now we have oil wells, pipelines and gold mines and lots of US citizens there. I can see why he might want it back now." At that point, the unknown man decided the conversation had turned silly and he had somewhere important to be. Another one who slept through history class.


This is why Sarah Palin is sitting on her back porch right now with a pair of binoculars in one hand and a shotgun across her lap, with a pile of shells and a bottle of Jack Daniels on the side table.

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## special ed (Feb 25, 2022)

Then, all's well on the North Western front.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Isn’t it? Then why does NATO not more than shout? It’s not that simple. There always other things at stake and what’s at stake is for everybody different. People forget that the EU it’s nota country and cannot always act in unity. Even though I regret that sometimes. But we’re straying. Let us not go that way.



Of course it's not the time for bickering and recriminations. It's the time for a cohesive front, even though not all members agree on all proposed responses.

Are you arguing otherwise, or am I misunderstanding you?

NATO doesn't do more than shout because the decision to go to war is grave and NATO has no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine. Whether it's wise for NATO going to war or not over Ukraine right now is arguable in either sense.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is why Sarah Palin is sitting on her back porch right now with a pair of binoculars in one hand and a shotgun across her lap, with a pile of shells and a bottle of Jack Daniels on the side table.


Doesn’t everyone? 
Okay, I’m a bourbon man myself.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Yuck, whiskey.

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course it's not the time for bickering and recriminations. It's the time for a cohesive front, even though not all members agree on all proposed responses.
> 
> Are you arguing otherwise, or am I misunderstanding you?
> 
> NATO doesn't do more than shout because the decision to go to war is grave and NATO has no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine. Whether it's wise for NATO going to war or not over Ukraine right now is arguable in either sense.


There is always a reason is what I tried to say. Easy for us to judge. And in the end we cannot decide for other autonomous nations. As I said, Europe is not a country, it’s a group of countries. We here in the Netherlands can bear the economic repercussions we would get from said measurements, but this is not true for all members of the EU.
I’m not happy with it either but it is what it is.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Marcel said:


> There is always a reason is what I tried to say. Easy for us to judge. And in the end we cannot decide for other autonomous nations. As I said, Europe is not a country, it’s a group of countries. We here in the Netherlands can bear the economic repercussions we would get from said measurements, but this is not true for all members of the EU.
> I’m not happy with it either but it is what it is.



Yes, I understand the political nature and structure of the EU.


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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 25, 2022)

I mentioned Oliver's Stone documentary earlier in this thread. I found the trailer, mind you this was made in 2016! Food for thought!

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## pgeno71 (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t understand why this has not been done yet.


I'm not sure if the answer is satisfying, but here's an article "explaining" why Russia hasn't been cut-off from SWIFT.
Biden, Europe waiting on key SWIFT sanction against Russia

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## Dimlee (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> There was a documentary made in 2016 by Oliver Stone called Ukraine on Fire. I suggest watching it.


As someone who lived most of his life in Ukraine, Russian Federation (RSFSR earlier), USSR in general... And not just witnessed but studied the history of USSR and former USSR... I suggest forgetting this documentary soon after watching it. And to move to some serious stuff.

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> As someone who lived most of his life in Ukraine, Russian Federation (RSFSR earlier), USSR in general... And not just witnessed but studied the history of USSR and former USSR... I suggest forgetting this documentary soon after watching it. And to move to some serious stuff.


i tend to agree with you - this stuff is full of BS

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> As someone who lived most of his life in Ukraine, Russian Federation (RSFSR earlier), USSR in general... And not just witnessed but studied the history of USSR and former USSR... I suggest forgetting this documentary soon after watching it. And to move to some serious stuff.


what you are thinking about "icebreaker" book - is Suvorov properly compelling facts in your opinion? - for many of his thesis sounds at least plausible..

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## Dimlee (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> We will give them as many Spikes and Piorun MANPADS as they will need....


I heard that Piorun was well accepted. Probably already used.

Za naszą i waszą wolność.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I heard that Piorun was well accepted. Probably already used.
> 
> Za naszą i waszą wolność.


you are most welcome - i personally know guys standing behind it's development - clever ones...

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## Marcel (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee
are you currently in the Ukraine? Hope all is okay with you and you are safe.

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## nuuumannn (Feb 25, 2022)

Watching FR24 and there's a Global Hawk over the Black Sea keeping an eye on activities on the southern border, an RAF Voyager and a KC-135 out of Mildenhall flying racetrack patterns over Romania (refuelling what...) and I spotted an MC-130J at low level scooting around Bulgaria.



GrauGeist said:


> It would be an ugly endeavor to attack a USN Carrier task Force.



But not without heavy losses to the USN. We're talking about more than thirty supersonic cruise missiles travelling from multiple directions all at the same time... To reassure you, Dave, yup, the US Navy is the world's most powerful, but to expect to get away with destroying all the cruise missiles? That takes a special kind of suspension of disbelief.

As a British soldier once said to his American ally, you're good, but you're not_ that _good.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I'm not sure if the answer is satisfying, but here's an article "explaining" why Russia hasn't been cut-off from SWIFT.
> Biden, Europe waiting on key SWIFT sanction against Russia



Thanks for posting that link, it's cleared up some of my misconceptions about SWIFT sanctions, and has also helped me to better understand 

 Marcel
's point.

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## rochie (Feb 25, 2022)

Agrre with Marcel, hope your safe 

 Dimlee

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee, J P C - as you folks are from Eastern Europe, I totally respect your opinions and agree - I wanted to see how others (especially our friends from Eastern Europe) would view this. I have friends from the Czech Republic, their feelings are the same.

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## Dimlee (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> what you are thinking about "icebreaker" book - is Suvorov properly compelling facts in your opinion? - for many of his thesis sounds at least plausible..


I could speak for hours about Viktor Suvorov... 
Briefly and in my humble opinion. He was right in his principle thesis but made plenty of errors, some technical, some logical in his first book. Not completely his own fault since he did not have access to the Soviet archives. It was like the discovery of Neptune - the mathematical prediction before the factual observation. He was criticised, laughed at, etc. Ironically, later on, many of his Russian critics silently agreed with his thesis about the Red Army preparations in 1941.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> As someone who lived most of his life in Ukraine, Russian Federation (RSFSR earlier), USSR in general... And not just witnessed but studied the history of USSR and former USSR... I suggest forgetting this documentary soon after watching it. And to move to some serious stuff.





J_P_C said:


> i tend to agree with you - this stuff is full of BS



As an American with some knowledge but clearly without y'all's perspective, would either one of you be so kind as to go into further detail? It's not that I disagree; I just want a better understanding from folks who've lived there either directly or in the region.

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I could speak for hours about Viktor Suvorov...
> Briefly and in my humble opinion. He was right in his principle thesis but made plenty of errors, some technical, some logical in his first book. Not completely his own fault since he did not have access to the Soviet archives. It was like the discovery of Neptune - the mathematical prediction before the factual observation. He was criticised, laughed at, etc. Ironically, later on, many of his Russian critics silently agreed with his thesis about the Red Army preparations in 1941.


that was exactly my impression after reading


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 25, 2022)

The man has lost it, he is now threatening NATO if they don't dump some of their members and pull back their forces.


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## nuuumannn (Feb 25, 2022)

I worked with a Lithuanian Russophile for years, lovely guy, married to a Ukrainian girl. He was very much in the Russian camp during the Donbass conflict, made a for a few awkward conversations at work. I had to stop engaging because he only heard the Pravda version of events, like the one that stated that MH-17 was shot down by a Ukrainian Su-25 (!) for example. I wonder what he feels about this little endeavor...

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> The man has lost it, he is now threatening NATO if they don't dump some of their members and pull back their forces.


Power trip, you think?

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 25, 2022)

I think it's full blown Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

Can you spell "Barbarossa" backwards?

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## Dimlee (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> As an American with some knowledge but clearly without y'all's perspective, would either one of you be so kind as to go into further detail? It's not that I disagree; I just want a better understanding from folks who've lived there either directly or in the region.


Well... It's hard to explain without writing 100 pages thesis and risking breaking the forum's rules... 
In my *firm* opinion, Stone's film was biased and in some instances wrong in facts. I'd recommend instead the works of Timothy Snyder on the same topic. He is a real expert in East European history and politics. Or articles by Anders Aslund, an economist but well versed in many aspects of modern Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Well... It's hard to explain without writing 100 pages thesis and risking breaking the forum's rules...
> In my *firm* opinion, Stone's film was biased and in some instances wrong in facts. I'd recommend instead the works of Timothy Snyder on the same topic. He is a real expert in East European history and politics. Or articles by Anders Aslund, an economist but well versed in many aspects of modern Ukraine and the Russian Federation.



Thanks for the tips ... I've got some reading/viewing to do.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> As an American with some knowledge but clearly without y'all's perspective, would either one of you be so kind as to go into further detail? It's not that I disagree; I just want a better understanding from folks who've lived there either directly or in the region.


I think Dimlee is perfect person to answer on your question in details - in short words: for me Vlad is next incarnation of red tsar (little bit like Stalin or Brezhnev were), equally power hungry as his predecessors, only difference is that he has no ideology just he is master of manipulation - this is his KGB's DNA. He told to Mr.Stone exactly what he expected to hear - bravo - masterpiece. Mr. Stone even didn't analyzed facts why all this countries from ex-soviet influence zone so hard pushed for NATO membership. In Poland public referendum for NATO membership approval has ended with 88% voting peoples supporting this decision and around 50% participation from authorized voters side.

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> In Poland public referendum for NATO membership approval has ended with 88% voting peoples supporting this decision and around 50% participation from authorized voters side.


So the anti-NATO voters boycotted the referendum?


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## tomo pauk (Feb 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Dimlee, J P C - as you folks are from Eastern Europe, I totally respect your opinions and agree - I wanted to see how others (especially our friends from Eastern Europe) would view this. I have friends from the Czech Republic, their feelings are the same.



All of this is too much like the war in Bosnia, but at an even more skewed ratio between the forces. Poor souls on the receiving end. If Ukrainian forces manage to withstand the onslaught next 5 days, that will be a major miracle.

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

no - in democratic countries 40-60% participation in voting is normal one - huge portion of societies in each country is called "politically inactive". In well developed democracies like Belarus or Russia this number is going behind 95%. By the way i always been wonder about this 12% - my theory is that it was part of voters who already celebrated membership and had serious difficulties with reading not mentioning with putting cross in correct box - but this is normal after couple shoots of Zhubrovka.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> All of this is too much like the war in Bosnia, but at an even more skewed ratio between the forces. Poor souls on the receiving end. If Ukrainian forces manage to withstand the onslaught next 5 days, that will be a major miracle.



Sad to say I agree with you; regular Ukrainian forces will likely be crushed soon.


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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sad to say I agree with you; regular Ukrainian forces will likely be crushed soon.


Ukrainians are extremely though peoples with great love for freedom - don't underestimate them

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I'm not sure if the answer is satisfying, but here's an article "explaining" why Russia hasn't been cut-off from SWIFT.
> Biden, Europe waiting on key SWIFT sanction against Russia



I get it, I do, but the only way to stop a bully sometimes is to bully back.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Ukrainians are extremely though peoples with great love for freedom - don't underestimate them



I don't. I think the multiple vectors of attack will put regular forces out of action soon; but as I noted on the first page of this thread, I believe the inevitable insurgency stands a good chance of forcing a Russian withdrawal in the years to come.

But in the immediate picture, between their multiple avenues of attack, and their air superiority, the Russians will force a surrender of Ukrainian forces.

In the meantime, the Ukrainians will suffer.

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## J_P_C (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't. I think the multiple vectors of attack will put regular forces out of action soon; but as I noted on the first page of this thread, I believe the inevitable insurgency stands a good chance of forcing a Russian withdrawal in the years to come.
> 
> But in the immediate picture, between their multiple avenues of attack, and their air superiority, the Russians will force a surrender of Ukrainian forces.
> 
> In the meantime, the Ukrainians will suffer.


considering "magic of numbers" you are exactly right this is most probable scenario - but war is little bit more than just simple equation with just one possible solution.... we will see what result will be this time

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> the Russians will force a surrender of Ukrainian forces.


Not very likely:









Ukrainian troops allegedly told Russian forces "f*** you" before being killed for refusal to surrender


The soldiers who reportedly defied the Russian troops will be posthumously awarded as "Heroes of Ukraine," President Zelensky announced.




www.cbsnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not very likely:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I should have written "defeat" instead of "surrender". I think my point is apt all the same. They were crushed, sad to say.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Interesting…









Cracks emerge between Beijing and Moscow as two Chinese banks restrict lending


Two Chinese state-owned banks will restrict financing for Russian commodity purchases in a sign that cracks may be emerging between Beijing and Moscow as the Kremlin faces harsh international sanctions.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> considering "magic of numbers" you are exactly right this is most probable scenario - but war is little bit more than just simple equation with just one possible solution.... we will see what result will be this time



Right. I personally think the Russians have stuck their nose into a bear-trap. Ukrainians seem highly motivated (they're fighting for kith and kin); they're inured to fighting already after the last eight years; and there is, from my understanding, a deep antipathy to Russian rule that predates WWII.

They also have the advantage of some good terrain for insurgent ops, good weapons, and they're highly motivated.

I'm not denigrating the Ukrainian military, but just pointing out that their strategic position is pretty much hopeless. That doesn't mean I think the nation or its people will be cowed -- on the contrary, I think they stand a good chance of putting another Afghanistan onto the Russians just in time to write the end of Putin's regime, just as the Afghan war was a factor in the fall of the USSR.

To repeat: I believe the Russians have stuck their nose into a bear-trap ... and I wish the best for the Ukrainians, no matter the intervening setbacks. I hope we in the West do our utmost to support them in their fight.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Saw an article today about an 80 year old man volunteering to fight Russian invaders . When asked why by a reporter he said he was fighting them so his grandchildren did not have to later.

I know its from the movie Robin Hood Prince if Thieves, but there is some truth to the saying that a “A man fighting for his lands is worth ten trained soldiers.” Look at Afghanistan and Iraq. I’m not saying Ukraine can beat Russia militarily round for round, but they can certainly make it costly enough that support back in Russia falters.

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## Crimea_River (Feb 25, 2022)

I'm sure China is taking copious notes on all this for when they do the same to Taiwan.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Interesting…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nothing personal. It's business, Comrade.

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## rochie (Feb 25, 2022)

the more statements i hear from the UN / NATO the more i see the scene in Team America where Puppet Hans Blix tells the Puppet Kim Jung 

"we will be very angry with you and we will write you a letter telling you how angry we are ! "

i do not know the answer and do not want WW III but i fear we are sacrificing Ukraine.

i fear whats in the near future if Russia is allowed to keep any territory it seizes as it seems to be on a long term " bite and hold" strategy on its western borders and how far west will it be allowed to march ?

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I know its from the movie Robin Hood Prince if Thieves, but there is some truth to the saying that a “A man fighting for his lands is worth ten trained soldiers.”


Then out spoke brave Horatio,
Captain of the gate.
"To every man upon this earth,
death cometh soon or late.
And how can man die better, 
than facing fearsome odds,
for the ashes of his fathers,
and the temples of his gods."

Vive Ukraine!

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## fubar57 (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Saw an article today about an 80 year old man volunteering to fight Russian invaders . When asked why by a reporter he said he was fighting them so his grandchildren did not have to later.
> 
> I know its from the movie Robin Hood Prince if Thieves, but there is some truth to the saying that a “A man fighting for his lands is worth ten trained soldiers.” Look at Afghanistan and Iraq. I’m not saying Ukraine can beat Russia militarily round for round, but they can certainly make it costly enough that support back in Russia falters.


Saw another news article where the man told the reporter, "We are now desperate." A desperate man is a dangerous man with nothing to lose and will fight to the end to defend what is his as happened in Afghanistan.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Can you spell "Barbarossa" backwards?



It starts with an ass, that's fo sho.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Then out spoke brave Horatio,
> Captain of the gate.
> "To every man upon this earth,
> death cometh soon or late.
> ...





Emilio Zapata said:


> I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Nothing personal. It's business, Comrade.



Money talks.

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

rochie said:


> i fear whats in the near future if Russia is allowed to keep any territory it seizes as it seems to be on a long term " bite and hold" strategy on its western borders and how far west will it be allowed to march ?


I can just see Putin now:
"The East-West Germany partition line at a bare minimum, but, given past antagonisms, I best make It the Rhine, for safety's sake. But then there's 1812. Hmmm, how about the Atlantic coast? Better clean out those pesky Scandinavians too, while I'm at it."

BoB revisited?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

rochie said:


> the more statements i hear from the UN / NATO the more i see the scene in Team America where Puppet Hans Blix tells the Puppet Kim Jung
> 
> "we will be very angry with you and we will write you a letter telling you how angry we are ! "
> 
> ...



I see no positive outcome for Ukraine without NATO intervention which we know is not going to happen.

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## rochie (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I see no positive outcome for Ukraine without NATO intervention which we know is not going to happen.


Very true unfortunately

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## The Basket (Feb 25, 2022)

The Russian people are going to suffer to. The Russian economy is going to go so far down the toilet it may no longer be viable. It will no longer be a modern state.

It is a shame that the Russians are going to be economically back in the Victorian era.

Kahless once said
Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory.
And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat

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## BlackSheep (Feb 25, 2022)

I worry about the Russian army’s “mobile crematorium”. The Russians say it is for health safety during extended conflicts. Critics say it is a way for the Russians to downplay their casualties. I wonder how many civilian bodies will find their way into this device. “Missing civilians” sounds better than “accidentally killed in bombing raid”.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I can just see Putin now:
> "The East-West Germany partition line at a bare minimum, but, given past antagonisms, I best make It the Rhine, for safety's sake. But then there's 1812. Hmmm, how about the Atlantic coast? Better clean out those pesky Scandinavians too, while I'm at it."
> 
> BoB revisited?


Channel Islands too?


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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 25, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The Russian people are going to suffer to. The Russian economy is going to go so far down the toilet it may no longer be viable. It will no longer be a modern state.


May just be, but they'll all know it was the fascist West and NATO that did it to them, not their beloved "Uncle Vlad".

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## wlewisiii (Feb 25, 2022)

Ukrainian Civilians getting issued small arms and ammo. Anyone who is willing to fight can have it:

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## fubar57 (Feb 25, 2022)

This 64yr old can't view the video


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## Greg Boeser (Feb 25, 2022)

We are too old for you tube.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

I’m 67 and I approve this message.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 25, 2022)

Sorry, I didn't realize they'd slapped those restrictions on that account. I've been following it closely at Youtube.


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## fubar57 (Feb 25, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-attack-feb25-2022-1.6364051


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)

_
Russia's space agency chief said that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies over Russia's invasion into Ukraine could potentially destroy cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS).

After President Biden announced Thursday that the U.S. would sanction major Russian banks and impose export controls on Russia to curtail high-tech imports, Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin tweeted that the ISS's current location is under Russian control.

"If you block cooperation with us, who will save the International Space Station (ISS) from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or...Europe?" Rogozin said in one of his tweets. "There is also the possibility of a 500-ton structure falling on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, therefore all the risks are yours. Are you ready for them?"

Currently, there are four NASA astronauts, two Russian cosmonauts and one European astronaut onboard the outpost, according to CNN.
_









Russian space chief threatens International Space Station over sanctions


Russia's space agency chief said that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies over Russia's invasion into Ukraine could potentially destroy cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS).




thehill.com





Bring our astronauts home, and let the Russians know that if it lands on American soil it'll be regarded as an attack.

This bully needs slappin'.

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## The Basket (Feb 25, 2022)

The dark forest theory.

The idea that in the future we may meet an alien race. But that is a problem. The alien race will be so sophisticated that it will be able to destroy us.

So since we do not know this alien race, we may have to destroy them first regardless of whether they are friendly. Coz the only other alternative is that they destroy us first.

I think very soon that if Russia keeps on threatening NATO then a first strike maybe on the cards.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

Can we we talk about HMS Indefatigable?

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

Hey, I know, let's all watch Dr. Strangelove or How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Bomb!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 25, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

Exactly!

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russia's space agency chief said that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies over Russia's invasion into Ukraine could potentially destroy cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS).
> 
> After President Biden announced Thursday that the U.S. would sanction major Russian banks and impose export controls on Russia to curtail high-tech imports, Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin tweeted that the ISS's current location is under Russian control.
> 
> ...


That Russian is a tool.

The ISS makes one full orbit of the earth each hour of the day and as it does so, the orbit inclines (I don't recall the technical term) meaning that each orbit sees the ISS moving a few degrees.

So yes, the ISS passes over Russia just as it passes over every other continent and both poles.

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## Vincenzo (Feb 25, 2022)

I find you all, 
ok, this a hot and complicated argument

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

Not sure of the validity, but apparently Putin has given orders that the families of Ukranian soldiers who do not lay down their arms and surrender should be found and killed. Even if this is just a fear tactic, this proves he has gone mad. Putin must be stopped.



US: Russia to threaten families of Ukrainian soldiers who refuse to surrender | News | gazette.com

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## GrauGeist (Feb 25, 2022)

Odd how Putin said he wanted to rid the Ukraine of Nazis, but he acts like Hitler.

Some mighty big hypocracy going on right there...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Odd how Putin said he wanted to rid the Ukraine of Nazis, but he acts like Hitler.
> 
> Some mighty big hypocracy going on right there...



Now would be the perfect time for his vehicle’s “brakes to fail” while driving at high speed.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

Polonium in his pierogis.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Odd how Putin said he wanted to rid the Ukraine of Nazis, but he acts like Hitler.
> 
> Some mighty big hypocracy going on right there...


Was it Goebbels who said you have to tell the BIG lie, over and over?


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## buffnut453 (Feb 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Not sure of the validity, but apparently Putin has given orders that the families of Ukranian soldiers who do not lay down their arms and surrender should be found and killed. Even if this is just a fear tactic, this proves he has gone mad. Putin must be stopped.
> 
> 
> 
> US: Russia to threaten families of Ukrainian soldiers who refuse to surrender | News | gazette.com



Goes back to my point earlier about Ukrainians not laying down arms being a pretext for Russian atrocities. This really is appalling.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

Oh... Fu*k... 






I know it's probably staged. Propaganda to the 'n-th degree. But it's a damn good one that tells the world what what needs to be told. 

This. Snake Island. The Ghost of Kyiv. Zelenskyy staying to fight and die with his army. These people are better than this world deserves. May the good lord bless them and keep them close.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

I’m honestly questioning Putins current mental state. It concerns me that he has nuclear weapons. I can only hope that cooler heads exist in Russia and they make the tough decision to remove him, before he does something that cannot be undone.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh... Fu*k...
> 
> View attachment 659424
> 
> ...


This brought a tear to my eye

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m honestly questioning Putins current mental state. It concerns me that he has nuclear weapons. I can only hope that cooler heads exist in Russia and they make the tough decision to remove him, before he does something that cannot be undone.


Right now he's the nightmare every US & Russian leader has had since 1945. A lunatic with his hand on the button. 

We are left to pray that there are many more like Stanislav Petrov in the Imperial (I use that phrase intentionally) Russian military.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

Considering Putin's irrational behaviour and veiled threats of nuclear strikes on the west, I'm willing to bet someone within his own ranks is going snuff him before this situation escelates.

Especially since most of his "loyal" posse has had all their assets frozen.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Considering Putin's irrational behaviour and veiled threats of nuclear strikes on the west, I'm willing to bet someone within his own ranks is going snuff him before this situation escelates.
> 
> Especially since most of his "loyal" posse has had all their assets frozen.


I pray, even as I lost much of my faith in the Covid years, that you are right.

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## The Basket (Feb 26, 2022)



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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

That veto right in the security council at the UN is a joke. It’s like having a criminal being his own judge.

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Odd how Putin said he wanted to rid the Ukraine of Nazis, but he acts like Hitler.
> 
> Some mighty big hypocracy going on right there...


It's a proven fact that the abused often grow up to become abusers. In the "Great Patriotic War", Russia was invaded from the west and abused mightily, so it's not surprising if there's an appetite for abusing the west in turn.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Marcel said:


> That veto right in the security council at the UN is a joke. It’s like having a criminal being his own judge.



The charter should be amended to require that countries whose behavior is being reviewed should be forced to recuse from voting.

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## Snautzer01 (Feb 26, 2022)

Watching this oldie again might help

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

_NATO, for the first time in its history, is activating its NATO Response Force (NRF) in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“We have activated NATO’s defense plans to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies and secure Alliance territory, including by drawing on our response forces,” NATO heads of state and government said in a joint statement released Friday after the alliance held a virtual summit. 

“We are now making significant additional defensive deployments of forces to the eastern part of the Alliance. We will make all deployments necessary to ensure strong and credible deterrence and defense across the Alliance, now and in the future.” 

The leaders stressed the moves “are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory.” 

The extraordinary move marks the first time NATO has activated the NRF, a multinational force comprised of around 40,000 land, air, maritime and special operations personnel the alliance can deploy on short notice as needed. All 30 members of NATO must agree to activate the force, which they did on Thursday. _









NATO activates response force for first time in history


NATO, for the first time in its history, is activating its NATO Response Force (NRF) in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.




thehill.com





I wonder where the nuclear clock is sitting right now?


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wonder where the nuclear clock is sitting right now?


IDK, but we must be a Defcon3. DEFCON - Wikipedia


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## ThomasP (Feb 26, 2022)

For anyone interested, this Wiki article give a pretty good overview of the origins and purpose of the Veto ability of the UN Security Council:

"United Nations Security Council veto power - Wikipedia"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, but we must be a Defcon3. DEFCON - Wikipedia



It's apparently 100 seconds to midnight ... but it was last updated on 20 Jan. It should have changed by now.

As for American alert status, I can guarantee you there are Bones and B-2s sitting locked and loaded at places like Dyess and Ellsworth and Whiteman AFBs, able to be airborne within five minutes of receiving the order.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> As for American alert status, I can guarantee you there are Bones and B-2s sitting locked and loaded at places like Dyess and Ellsworth and Whiteman AFBs, able to be airborne within five minutes of receiving the order.


Indeed, I expect leave has been canceled for all of NATO. Even here in Canada where we’ve neglected the CAF for decades we’re about to send additional forces to the Baltics.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

_Editor’s Note: This story was updated at 11:25 a.m. on Feb. 24 to include information about the B-52 Bomber Task Force mission.

Six F-35s operating from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, ordered to NATO’s eastern front by President Joe Biden Feb. 22, arrived to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions Feb. 24 to reassure Allies as Russian forces move into Ukraine. At the same time, a B-52 from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., interacted with Polish fighters in the Black Sea region during a Bomber Task Force operation.

“We are facing a dynamic environment, and the deployment of F-35s to NATO’s eastern flank enhances our defensive posture and amplifies the Alliance’s interoperability,” said Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, U.S. Air Force in Europe–Air Forces Africa commander, in a statement.

The F-35s, from the 34th Fighter Squadron at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, will join 24 F-15s and F-16s in Romania and Poland taking part in NATO enhanced air policing missions. USAFE said the aircraft will forward deploy “for a period of time” to the Baltics at Estonia’s Amari Air Base and Lithuania’s Siauliai Air Base, and to the Black Sea region at Romania’s Fetesti Air Base._









F-35s, B-52 Arrive at NATO's Eastern Front as Russia Invades Ukraine | Air & Space Forces Magazine


Six F-35s deployed to Germany arrived to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions Feb. 24 to reassure Allies as Russian forces move into Ukraine.




www.airforcemag.com





and:

_On Feb. 24, 2022, two RNlAF F-35A Lightning II aircraft departed from Leeuwarden Air Base in the Netherlands to reinforce NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe. The Dutch Ministry of Defence had previously announced the plan to deploy two of its 5th generation jets to Bulgaria between March and April, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the initial plan.

It’s not clear whether the F-35s are being deployed to Graf Ignatievo or not: the official statement of the MOD says they have been moved “in the vicinity of Poland”. Anyway, what’s certain is that on their way to the destination, the F-35s flew over Poland and refueled from a RNlAF A330 MRTT north of Gniezno, Poland, around 13.30LT today, where photographer Tomek Urbański spotted them._









Dutch F-35As Deployed In Response To Russian Invasion of Ukraine Spotted Over Poland Today


Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Royal Netherlands Air Force has deployed two F-35As that initially planned to move to Bulgaria in March-April,




theaviationist.com


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Six F-35s operating from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, ordered to NATO’s eastern front by President Joe Biden Feb. 22, arrived to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions Feb. 24 to reassure Allies as Russian forces move into Ukraine. _


Where are the F-22s?


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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Where are the F-22s?


I hope it's the bad guys wondering the same thing.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is a very good reason they are where they are. Trust me. All I can say.


Given it first flew a quarter of a century ago is the F-22 still the world’s best air superiority fighter?


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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

The B-52 is the still the best at what it does.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Given it first flew a quarter of a century ago is the F-22 still the world’s best air superiority fighter?



Yes.

All I can say.

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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

Sending the F35 makes way more sense than the F22.

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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

Dutch “luchtmobiele brigade” (airmobile brigade) is going to do exercises in Rumania near the Ukraine border.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Sending the F35 makes way more sense than the F22.



At this moment and time…

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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

The F-35s are designed to work in a multi-layered battlefield environment.

Having F-22s in the mix is not required, they can network with other NATO aircraft as well.

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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> At this moment and time…


Indeed


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Could the CF-18 in all its obsolescence still fight alongside NATO? Could the systems integrate with a F-35 strike?


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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> At this moment and time…


Was I the only one who heard ominous music?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Where are the F-22s?



<edit, misread your question>

I don't know. Haven't read anything about them.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

In the beginning was the Plan.

And then came the Assumptions.

And the Assumptions were without form.

And darkness was upon the face of the Workers.

And they spoke among themselves, saying, "It is a crock of shit, and it stinketh."

And the workers went unto their Supervisors and said, "It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odour thereof."

And the Supervisors went unto their Managers, saying, "It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it."

And the Managers went unto their Directors, saying, "It is a vessel of fertiliser, and none may abide its strength."

And the Directors spoke amongst themselves, saying one to another, "It contains that which aids plant growth, and it is very strong."

And the Directors then went onto the Vice Presidents, saying unto them, "It promotes growth and is very powerful."

And the Vice Presidents went unto the President, saying unto him, "This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigour of the company; with powerful effects."

And the President looked upon the Plan, and saw that it was good.

And the Plan became Policy.

This is How Shit Happens.

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 26, 2022)

I have to say, much respect for Mr Zelenskyy. When asked if he would like the US to evacuate he replied: "the fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Honestly, why is it taking the Russians to long to roll over the small Ukrainian army? This was supposed to be the army we’d fear would roll over Europe. I have to think that a full on invasion was never part of the plan.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Boris Johnson was on the news speaking Ukrainian and Russian, speaking directly to the citizens of both countries. Cynics might suggest the timing benefited Johnson as a distraction from his Covid transgressions.



Good to see Canada’s Deputy PM Freeland doing the same in Ukrainian.

https://globalnews.ca/video/8643870...n-attack-now-is-the-time-for-us-to-be-strong/


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## Greg Boeser (Feb 26, 2022)

The Ukrainians weren't supposed to fight back. Plan meets reality.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The Ukrainians weren't supposed to fight back. Plan meets reality.


But now they are, where’s the Russian army’s heavier response?

if nothing else, this conflict is clearly shattering many of the myths that have been built about Russian military advantage. At every level, the Russians have punched well beneath their weight so to speak. Their strategic assumptions (Ukraine won't fight, Europe won't react) have been utterly dispelled.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

!!! Ukraine's Interior ministry asked residents to take down street signs in order to confuse oncoming Russian troops. The state road-signs agency went one step further. (Roughly: all directions are to "go fuck yourselves")

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> !!! Ukraine's Interior ministry asked residents to take down street signs in order to confuse oncoming Russian troops. The state road-signs agency went one step further. (Roughly: all directions are to "go fuck yourselves")
> 
> View attachment 659468


Real or photoshop?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Honestly, why is it taking the Russians to long to roll over the small Ukrainian army? This was supposed to be the army we’d fear would roll over Europe. I have to think that a full on invasion was never part of the plan.



One thing the Russians may not have considered much: it's been a relatively mild winter in Ukraine, with the result that instead of the mud freezing, the ground is glutinous and bad for vehicle ops once they're off the pavement.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Like the Spanish civil war I wonder if military service people from friendly states, in this case Poland would remove their national insignia and move to fight in Ukraine.

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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But now they are, where’s the Russian army’s heavier response?
> 
> if nothing else, this conflict is clearly shattering many of the myths that have been built about Russian military advantage. At every level, the Russians have punched well beneath their weight so to speak. Their strategic assumptions (Ukraine won't fight, Europe won't react) have been utterly dispelled.


Maybe good to point out that there is a difference between the current Russian army and the Soviet army of the 1980’s.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Real or photoshop?


Honestly, I don't know. I'd like to believe it's real though given the inspiration to them of Snake Island.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Boris Johnson was on the news speaking Ukrainian and Russian, speaking directly to the citizens of both countries. Cynics might suggest the timing benefited Johnson as a distraction from his Covid transgressions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wars have been a time tested distraction.


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 26, 2022)

I just read an interesting article that said most of the Russian soldiers actually fighting are conscripts. It ties into a platoon of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade surrendering to the Ukraine military because they did not know they were supposed o actually be fighting.









Ukraine-Russia War: Russian troops underfunded, equipment sub-par, according to reports


The military has not been able to make significant advances at night due to a lack of training and proper equipment.




www.foxnews.com

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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

Unless Putin sent in second rate troops/equipment as a ruse, while holding the modern equipment and professional troops back in the hopes that NATO becomes involved...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But now they are, where’s the Russian army’s heavier response?
> 
> if nothing else, this conflict is clearly shattering many of the myths that have been built about Russian military advantage. At every level, the Russians have punched well beneath their weight so to speak. Their strategic assumptions (Ukraine won't fight, Europe won't react) have been utterly dispelled.





> Russia is growing frustrated by the level of Ukrainian resistance its military has encountered during the invasion, according to a senior U.S. Defense Department official who briefed reporters on Saturday, USA Today reported.
> 
> The official said that there has been an increase in the influx of troops into the country. Thirty percent of Russian troops entered Ukraine as of Friday, but later, that number jumped to 50 percent. The Defense official added that the situation is fluid and constantly changing, the newspaper reported.
> 
> ...











Defense Department says Russia frustrated by Ukrainian resistance


Russia is growing frustrated by the level of Ukrainian resistance its military has encountered during the invasion, according to a senior U.S. Defense Department official who briefed reporters on S…




thehill.com





I'm trying to find the source I read this morning indicating that Putin is ordering a second wave with the reserves in the region. Remember, as of yesterday, only 60,000 troops were committed to the offensive out of 180,000 that had been marshalled. Once I re-find that source I'll link it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Honestly, why is it taking the Russians to long to roll over the small Ukrainian army? This was supposed to be the army we’d fear would roll over Europe. I have to think that a full on invasion was never part of the plan.



Because a man fighting for his county fights harder than an 18 year old conscript questioning why in the hell he is fighting at all.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Because a man fighting for his county fights harder than an 18 year old conscript questioning why in the hell he is fighting at all.


IDK, the Afghans rolled pretty quickly when the Taliban approached. I wonder if that influenced Putin’s thinking.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, the Afghans rolled pretty quickly when the Taliban approached. I wonder if that influenced Putin’s thinking.



Apples to oranges. The Taliban are largely Afghans. They were not foreign invaders. The Ukranians are not Russians.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

It appears Turkey has agreed to cut off the Black Sea to new Russian Warships.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, the Afghans rolled pretty quickly when the Taliban approached. I wonder if that influenced Putin’s thinking.



Aside from the points above, the Afghan government, as corrupt as it was, inspired no buy-in at all from its people or its military.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It appears Turkey has agreed to cut off the Black Sea to new Russian Warships.



I think Zelinisky spoke too soon or more likely in order to nudge the issue. Turkey has not announced this.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

_MOSCOW, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russian troops have captured the city of Melitopol in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhya region, Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday, the first significant population centre to be taken over since Moscow launched an invasion.

The ministry also said Russia had used air- and ship-based cruise missiles to carry out overnight strikes on military targets in Ukraine.

It said Russian troops had hit hundreds of military infrastructure targets and destroyed several aircraft and dozens of tanks and armoured and artillery vehicles.

Ukrainian officials could not be immediately reached for comment on the matter._









Russia says it has captured Ukraine's Melitopol


Russian troops have captured the city of Melitopol in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhya region, Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday, the first significant population centre to be taken over since Moscow launched an invasion.




www.reuters.com





And for a moment of levity in a grim thread, I just noticed the byline on this linked article:



> Reporting by Olzhas Auyezov Editning by Sam Holmes and Mark Potter



lol

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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think Zelinisky spoke too soon or more likely in order to nudge the issue. Turkey has not announced this.


Turkey will be restricting access.

They had deliberated it, but have since decided to go ahead.

Moscow is objecting, saying it violates the international treaty - which is somewhat amusing, considering that they are knee-deep in quite a few international treaty violations, currently.

Also, if Moscow were to read that treaty, they would know that Turkey has the right to do so in the event of war.









Turkey to block passage of Russian warships in Black Sea; Moscow disputes access claims


Turkey issued the first official clarification since Zelenskyy appeal, stating that Turkey has agreed to cut off the waterways to Moscow’s warships.




www.republicworld.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Turkey will be restricting access.
> 
> They had deliberated it, but have since decided to go ahead.
> 
> ...



Except per the treaty they cannot restrict it to ships that are home based in the Black Sea.

Not that I care though. Fuck Putin. Close it off!

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## buffnut453 (Feb 26, 2022)

A couple of interesting new developments. Germany has decided to send SAMs and AT missiles to Ukraine. For those who track modern German attitudes to war, this is a BIG deal.

Also, the BBC is reporting that the relatively slow progress by Russian forces (due to stiffer than expected Ukrainian resistance) is starting to strain Russian logistics. They report some Russian units are running out of fuel and other supplies. Really, REALLY hope that’s accurate.

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## GTX (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m honestly questioning Putins current mental state. It concerns me that he has nuclear weapons. I can only hope that cooler heads exist in Russia and they make the tough decision to remove him, before he does something that cannot be undone.


Please allow me to caveat what is written below by the statement that I do not support or condone Putin/Russia's attack here and strongly believe that they should be forced out of the Ukraine.

That said, I would also argue against any implying that Putin is mad or is a new Hitler (or anything akin to). To do so risks belittling the situation into a "me good, you bad" style analysis that doesn't actually help understand the conflict and/or work towards resolving (or dare I say preventing the next). The real world isn't black/white but rather many shades of grey. 

As I have previously mentioned, I believe that from Putin's POV, he is simply working to return the Russian Empire or at least sense of national pride. This is seemingly his underlying goal and one that helps define many of his actions over the last 20yrs or so - he is playing the long game one might say. This is aided by the fact that the West, especially the USA, appear weak and impotent and inward looking. As such, Putin saw an opportunity and took it. I suspect that if the West had been willing to admit Ukraine to NATO and/or put their own forces in the Ukraine rather than simply sending lots of, often old, weapons he may have backed off. The fact is that this did not happen though so we now have this tragedy unfolding.

I have previously (at Reply #64) posted an article by the Australian Journalist/Author/Analyst Stan Grant that addresses some of what I am talking about. Below is another, somewhat more pointed one. I apologise if anyone takes offence but please note that I do it not to start arguments but rather to help point out what I believe is one of the things that has helped contribute to this situation. It is also not trying to place blame for things such as the Russian aggression on Ukraine on others than Putin/Russia but rather to help explain one aspect of the journey that has seen the world reach this point.









Putin has sensed his moment, and we are left with one question: Where did America's power go?


In 1991, after the end of the Cold War, the United States stood unchallenged in the global order. But the last 30 years have seen a persistent erosion of American power and prestige, writes Stan Grant.




www.abc.net.au

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Please allow me to caveat what is written below by the statement that I do not support or condone Putin/Russia's attack here and strongly believe that they should be forced out of the Ukraine.
> 
> That said, I would also argue against any implying that Putin is mad or is a new Hitler (or anything akin to). To do so risks belittling the situation into a "me good, you bad" style analysis that doesn't actually help understand the conflict and/or work towards resolving (or dare I say preventing the next). The real world isn't black/white but rather many shades of grey.
> 
> ...



I don’t think he is mad because of the invasion. I think he is mad because of his actions since the invasion.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> As such, Putin saw an opportunity and took it. I suspect that if the West had been willing to admit Ukraine to NATO and/or put their own forces in the Ukraine rather than simply sending lots of, often old, weapons he may have backed off. The fact is that this did not happen though so we now have this tragedy unfolding.


I remember wondering in 2014 had the US sent a warship (briefly) and some long term troops to Crimea (upon the invite of Kiev) in advance of the Russians if that would have made a difference.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

In Kyiv, defiant Ukrainians hold off Russian army: 'We know we will win'


“Good morning, Ukrainians!” Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video posted Saturday on Twitter at 6:57 am. “I am here, we are not laying down our weapons, we will protect our land!”




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Feb 26, 2022)

Some useful analysis here that can help explain the Russian side (again, in no way attempting to legitimise):





__





Institute for the Study of War


Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently sought a set of objectives since his rise to power in 2000: the preservation of his regime, the end of American hegemony, and the reinstatement of Russia as a global power. The West must understand




www.understandingwar.org

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## GTX (Feb 26, 2022)

This is also very useful to get a picture of the status of the invasion:







More here:






Institute for the Study of War


Russian forces entered major Ukrainian cities—including Kyiv and Kherson – for the first time on February 25. Russian forces’ main axes of advance focused on Kyiv, successfully isolating the city on both banks of the Dnipro River. Poorly planned and organ




www.understandingwar.org

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## J_P_C (Feb 26, 2022)

there are some enunciations that russian attack has been ill prepared operation, russian forces are short of all kind of supplies, and their combat looses are mounting far behind worst predictions made by their planners. One of Ukrainian officials send request to red cross to help them transfer bodies of the russian soldiers back to motherland. For today number of killed servicemen for russian army exceeded 4000 + unknown number wounded. Result of today's operation for russian military aviation - they have 3 Su30SM, 2 Su25, 2 IL76MD and 11 helicopters less than in the morning + unknown type combat jet shoot down by their own warship operating close to Odessa. Ukrainians has ambushed Chechen regiment during its approach to combat zone. One of the killed Chechens was regiment commander col. Tushayev.


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## Dimlee (Feb 26, 2022)

Hopefully, I don't break the forum rules if I publish some links.
Ukrainian sources in English.








Russian invasion of Ukraine: tanks and rocket attacks on the cities. Breaking news


Russian invasion of Ukraine: tanks and rocket attacks on the cities. Breaking news




news.liga.net












Ukrainska pravda


Ukrainska Pravda — Ukraine's news




www.pravda.com.ua












Ukrainian Struggle Centre // War Ukraine Russia News


The international press center reports on war crimes committed by Russia towards Ukraine. Videos from the conflict zone, photos from the battlefield and real information from Ukraine - we're telling the truth about the war in Ukraine. #StopRussia




t.me




All three are non-government. They are faster to report than official sources but occasionally less accurate.
None should be considered as "neutral" or completely free of censorship, of course. War is war.
The last one is a new English version of the popular war channel managed by volunteers and veterans who are not trying to be "politically correct". 








Останній Блокпост 🛡


Волонтерський центр "Останній Блокпост" публікує хроніку збройної та інформаційної боротьби з російським агресором, а також організовує адресну допомогу захисникам України. Канал ведеться учасниками тероборони. Зв'язок: @lastBP_feedback_bot 🛡




t.me




For example, there are videos of RF POWs that are not well protected against "public curiosity" (Geneva Convention 1949, Article 13). Well, it is what is. At least they are safe now.
Ukrainians are very angry. Someone has stepped into a snake den.

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## J_P_C (Feb 26, 2022)

last minute info - huge explosion in russian fuel dump close to Lugansk. Possible causes - self-ignition or ukrainian spec forces operating Warmate drone, by the way what this KC135 and KC10 over Romania and Poland are doing? they just circling to to increase greenhouse effect??


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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

Probably a SigInt aircraft claiming to be a KC or there are other aircraft in the area that it's supporting?

Also:

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Probably a SigInt aircraft claiming to be a KC or there are other aircraft in the area that it's supporting?


Ukraine is getting precise intel from the US on exactly where Russia units are, including fuel trucks. The signals intelligence and communications intercept guys at the Pentagon are probably have a hoot of a time - getting to do what they’ve always trained for. 

Reports of more Javelin missiles arriving. This suggests of course that the Ukranians are already proficient in their use. US sends 300 Javelin missiles to Ukraine in latest military aid during Russia standoff

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## J_P_C (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine is getting precise intel from the US on exactly where Russia units are, including fuel trucks. The signals intelligence and communications intercept guys at the Pentagon are probably have a hoot of a time - getting to do what they’ve always trained for.
> 
> Reports of more Javelin missiles arriving. This suggests of course that the Ukranians are already proficient in their use. US sends 300 Javelin missiles to Ukraine in latest military aid during Russia standoff


more than 100 MBTs and 500APCs destroyed - i would say Ukrainians keep learning pretty intensively......

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> more than 100 MBTs and 500APCs destroyed - i would say Ukrainians keep learning pretty intensively......


Time to start displaying the Russian dead as they‘re shipped home.









Ukraine is asking the Red Cross to repatriate thousands of bodies back to Russia, as the Russian Federation remains silent about its casualties


Saturday, 26 February 2022, 11:35 AM Ukrainian authorities are asking the Red Cross to repatriate back to Russia thousands of bodies of the Russian military personnel killed in action during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, the Russian Federation does not inform its...




www.pravda.com.ua

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## buffnut453 (Feb 26, 2022)

One of the many ways to resist the Russian invasion...man stands in front of a tank to slow its advance:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621a9432ec502b53cd47fe08%26WATCH%3A%20Man%20tries%20stop%20tank%20with%20his%20bare%20hands%262022-02-26T21%3A10%3A48.463Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:15211f65-114d-47d8-a61b-1aa4f614154d&pinned_post_asset_id=621a9432ec502b53cd47fe08&pinned_post_type=share



How brave is that?


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

The Javelin looks very effective. The low launch blast is ideal for concealed launching.



I recall the USA armed the Mugahadeen with Stinger missiles to kill Russians.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

The tankers that are endlessly circling over Eastern European nations are refueling points for increased NATO patrols.

More info:








Ukrainian Crisis: NATO Order Of Battle (Updated)


NATO’s build-up continues following the invasion of Ukraine, with multiple fighter jets relocating and reinforcements arriving on the Eastern flank. As we




theaviationist.com

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

I’ve read many accounts and refutations of early kill claims in our Forum. The Ghost of Kiev is very inspiring but I didn’t get my hopes up. Let’s remember a few threads back we were having a pleasant row over who shot down exactly what.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

Edit: Apparently there are doubts about the image. And now it's been deleted from twitter.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



That looks like anti aircraft bursts rather than parachutes. Dropping into a hostile, prepared urban environment is suicide.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That looks like anti aircraft bursts rather than parachutes. Dropping into a hostile, prepared urban environment is suicide.


Probably. I was a treadhead and stayed on the ground.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 26, 2022)

This on the other hand I do know about. The autoloader in Russian tanks has no protection other than the outer armor. Anything penetrates? Boom. One less tank and three less tankers. You can tell this was a Russian T-90 from the anti-top attack armor that doesn't appear to have worked.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This on the other hand I do know about. The autoloader in Russian tanks has no protection other than the outer armor. Anything penetrates? Boom. One less tank and three less tankers. You can tell this was a Russian T-90 from the anti-top attack armor that doesn't appear to have worked.
> 
> View attachment 659479


Gazebo senselessly destroyed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> In Kyiv, defiant Ukrainians hold off Russian army: 'We know we will win'
> 
> 
> “Good morning, Ukrainians!” Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video posted Saturday on Twitter at 6:57 am. “I am here, we are not laying down our weapons, we will protect our land!”
> ...



He's proving to be more than a little Churchillian in his ability to inspire his people.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He's proving to be more than a little Churchillian in his ability to inspire his people.


And somewhat Nelsonian.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And somewhat Nelsonian.



I'm not much a student of Nelson?


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## buffnut453 (Feb 26, 2022)

Another report from the BBC....A senior US official told ABC News they've heard a Russian soldier on a radio call saying "We don't know who to shoot...they all look like us." 

The official also said some Russian forces are disoriented, realizing the battles against Ukrainians are harder than they thought.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another report from the BBC....A senior US official told ABC News they've heard a Russian soldier on a radio call saying "We don't know who to shoot...they all look like us."
> 
> The official also said some Russian forces are disoriented, realizing the battles against Ukrainians are harder than they thought.


The US likely has listening posts across Ukraine. That plus satellite imagery and NSA intercepts is likely giving the Ukrainians precise info. The Russians should have invaded Ukraine in 2014, now it’s too late.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 26, 2022)

The US, EU and UK just released a coordinated statement that, in the next few days, they will remove selected Russian banks from the Swift financial transfer system, thus further isolating Russia from global financial markets and resources.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Yes I know its the Mirror…









Driver offers Russian tank crew lift home after they run out of fuel in Ukraine


A Russian tank crew were left stranded at the side of the road when they ran out of fuel but soon a Ukrainian driver passed by and offered to give the soldiers a lift back to the border




www.mirror.co.uk

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 26, 2022)

Some footage of (allegedly) AA against (allegedly) russian aircraft & helo:





The logistical problems for the russian army:




And a russian column destroyed in Kherson region (seems like sappers or engineers):

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not much a student of Nelson?


Ya' can't go wrong by closing with the enemy. He certainly ain't running.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ya' can't go wrong by closing with the enemy. He certainly ain't running.



Ah, gotcha. You're right, you gotta love a man who asks for more ammo rather than a flight out.

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## Marcel (Feb 26, 2022)

I don’t buy all the propaganda. I’ll only believe the Russian army is messing up when I see it. These are just rumours on my opinion.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I don’t buy all the propaganda. I’ll only believe the Russian army is messing up when I see it. These are just rumours on my opinion.



True, but damn I hope its true. I hope it goes so bad that Russian unite and overthrow that miscreant criminal Putin.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 26, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I’ll only believe the Russian army is messing up when I see it. These are just rumours on my opinion.


The Russian army was supposed to be able to counter NATO but can’t seem to roll over Ukraine in a few days. If I’m an opposition leader in Bellarus I’m thinking the emperor has no clothes.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 26, 2022)

And yet another example of the law of unintended consequences for Putin’s dream of a region of Russian influence and hegemony. Azerbaijan has pledged to provide free fuel for Ukraine’s emergency services (fire, ambulance etc).

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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I don’t buy all the propaganda. I’ll only believe the Russian army is messing up when I see it. These are just rumours on my opinion.


Direct from the U.S. Department of Defense:








Ukrainian Military Fighting Bravely Against Russian Invaders


Ukrainian service members are fighting bravely — and effectively — for their country against the massive Russian onslaught, a senior defense official said.



www.defense.gov

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet another example of the law of unintended consequences for Putin’s dream of a region of Russian influence and hegemony. Azerbaijan has pledged to provide free fuel for Ukraine’s emergency services (fire, ambulance etc).



When you've made enough enemies you must fight off a horde.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

Germany sending 1,000 MANPATs and 500 MANPADS. Major policy change against shipping weapons to a warzone.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Germany sending 1,000 MANPATs and 500 MANPADS. Major policy change against shipping weapons to a warzone.


Wow

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Wow



I think between this and German acquiescence to removing Russia from SWIFT, we're seeing a big change in German policy. I wouldn't be surprised if it's driven by the German polity.


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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

Who cares? It's another Democracy on the team.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 26, 2022)

Meanwhile, in the Med...









UPDATED: Russian Navy Cruisers Positioned to Counter U.S., French and Italian Carrier Groups in the Mediterranean - USNI News


This post has been updated with a statement from Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday. This post has been updated to correct Monday’s position of RTS Marshal Ustinov. Three Russian guided-missile cruisers have been arrayed across the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to counter three...




news.usni.org

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

What's Russian for "Torpedo boats! Japanese torpedo boats!"?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Germany sending 1,000 MANPATs and 500 MANPADS. Major policy change against shipping weapons to a warzone.



Sehr gut, sehr gut!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Who cares? It's another Democracy on the team.



I like the idea of another democracy coming off the sidelines. I don't know if this is driven by public opinion but I'd sure as hell be happy if it is.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia


The United States and European nations agreed Saturday to impose the most potentially crippling financial penalties yet on Russia over its unrelenting invasion of Ukraine, going after the central bank reserves that underpin the Russian economy and severing some Russian banks from a vital global...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I like the idea of another democracy coming off the sidelines. I don't know if this is driven by public opinion but I'd sure as hell be happy if it is.



Germany has largely maintained a strict non-interventionist policy since the end of WW2 for obvious reasons like it or not. However, I think Germany understands the severity of Russia winning this war. It has huge implications for the future of Europe.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

All is not well in camelot.









What the Russian media is saying about the war in Ukraine


The Kremlin's hold on Russian media coverage appears to be slipping, which could present President Vladimir Putin with a fresh challenge, as he faces domestic and international opprobrium for his attack on Ukraine.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Meanwhile, in the Med...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good. Because of the Montreux Convention, none of the Western ships can move into the Black Sea anyway; and two of the three Russian missile cruisers won't be supporting ops against Ukraine either given that they're not based in the Black Sea. _Moskva_ is locked up in the small sea, and the Russians will have a hard time keeping the other two on station given the sanctions.

By the way, do they have a tug handy?

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## SaparotRob (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Germany has largely maintained a strict non-interventionist policy since the end of WW2 for obvious reasons like it or not. However, I think Germany understands the severity of Russia winning this war. It has huge implications for the future of Europe.


I think they might have some understanding for those under hostile occupation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Germany has largely maintained a strict non-interventionist policy since the end of WW2 for obvious reasons like it or not. However, I think Germany understands the severity of Russia winning this war. It has huge implications for the future of Europe.



Exactly. I think they understand this at least as well as, say, France or the UK.

I get why they've played it safe through the Cold War; after all, they were pretty much Ground Zero for any nuclear exchange and had a vested interest in, uh, not getting nuked.

Any Germans here able to comment on the public feeling on the ground there? I don't think I'm the only one interested in hearing the German public's views.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Exactly. I think they understand this at least as well as, say, France or the UK.
> 
> I get why they've played it safe through the Cold War; after all, they were pretty much Ground Zero for any nuclear exchange and had a vested interest in, uh, not getting nuked.
> 
> Any Germans here able to comment on the public feeling on the ground there? I don't think I'm the only one interested in hearing the German public's views.



It wasn’t just that. Following WW2, Germany’s constitution allowed the country’s military to be a defensive military only. Public opinion prevented it from being changed. It is too fresh in their minds. German military and civilian deaths in WW2 were 7,375,800. There is not a town in Germany without a memorial wall full of names on it memorializing the towns fallen sons and fathers. There is not a family in Germany that did not witness and experience the horror of war. Until now, they simply did not want to fight anymore, or contribute to someone else's war.

Just for context, the pics below are from my wife’s town which has a population of 2,064. The walls to the left and right are names of thise who have fell in WW1 and WW2. Its a pretty significant amount.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 26, 2022)

I’ve spoken with my personal friends and family on the ground in Germany. All have the same sentiment, they wish there was no war, but they support Ukraine.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

It's in the West's best interest for Russia to lose. Or even if they win, they lose a lot of feathers.

There is a lot of support to Ukraine and also sympathy to the long suffering Russian population.

Maybe the Russian and Ukrainian are simply to much alike to be seen as the enemy. You're not fighting an enemy but a mirror image of yourself.

The next fear is if things do go sour then the only option would be go home or go hard. Such as using the full range of air power to bomb the civilian population.

Of course we don't know nothing. Maybe the Russians thought it would be a milk run. Maybe the Russian logistics are about to run dry Plenty's on social media about abandoned armour which has fun out of fuel. Maybe the West is supplied intel which makes it easy to target high value assets.

Dunno.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

I think Putin is going to pump more and more troops into the Ukraine meat grinder until he overpowers them with sheer numbers

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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think Putin is going to pump more and more troops into the Ukraine meat grinder until he overpowers them with sheer numbers


However, there is a large number of volunteers heading to the Ukraine to join the fight.

I was just reading that volunteers are coming from Croatia, Israel and even some Americans who were working for a tech company (Just Answer) in the Ukraine joined in.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

Whatever happened it's clear Plan A didn't work.

I would assume the Russian just thought turning up would be enough.

But now the West is openly supplying arms to Ukraine and resistance is getting harder and Russia is losing soldiers and material.

The Russian banking system is about to be wiped out and the economy is going to go back to the medieval era.

Russia has already lost. The question or rather the fear is that whether the Russians realise this.


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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Whatever happened it's clear Plan A didn't work.
> 
> I would assume the Russian just thought turning up would be enough.
> 
> ...


It's whether or not Putin realizes it or decides to go Fuehrerbunker. Or perhaps an oligarch decides on enlightened self interest. I can't see Putin able to back out down without some brilliant diplomatic move.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

Pretty sure this played out once before in Russia's history.

It had something to do with Finland and resulted in a serious ass-kicking.

Kids, this is why it's important to pay attention to history class.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

Problem is that if he looks weak then his whole schtick is that he isn't.

I would assume the plan would be that Ukraine folds like paper and the West cowers like old ladies hiding under their beds. Plus how is Putin going to create a puppet Ukrainian state now?

Instead Ukraine is still fighting, and the West is openly supporting Ukraine and places like Poland and Finland are now angry and openly Finland is talking about joining NATO.

It's gone horribly wrong and even the most optimistic Russian assessment must see that. 

There wasn't supposed to be any fighting and the West wasn't supposed to be united and now totally opposed to you.

What's worse you have highlighted that from a conventional warfare standpoint, you ain't all that. So yeah taking on NATO is an extremely hollow threat.

My goodness, the Russians have screwed up. And they didn't need to and didn't have to.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure this played out once before in Russia's history.
> 
> It had something to do with Finland and resulted in a serious ass-kicking.
> 
> Kids, this is why it's important to pay attention to history class.


Winter War 2: Electric Boogaloo? 

< whistles innocently >

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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

I wish I could be so optimistic. I still believe we’re only fed the info that we are supposed to get. Not that I blame them for doing that. 

But I hope it’s true that it’s going bad for the Russians. That it’s not going to plan is to be expected. The first casualty of war is always the plan. 

I fear that the only solution is that the Russian people stand up for themselves. And I don’t see that happen very soon.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

So plan A has failed.

Now it's plan go hard or go home.

And maybe that's the worst kind of plan. The Zapp Brannigan plan where you keep on sending men and material until the enemy runs out of ammunition.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I wish I could be so optimistic. I still believe we’re only fed the info that we are supposed to get. Not that I blame them for doing that.
> 
> But I hope it’s true that it’s going bad for the Russians. That it’s not going to plan is to be expected. The first casualty of war is always the plan.
> 
> I fear that the only solution is that the Russian people stand up for themselves. And I don’t see that happen very soon.


I agree with someone (sorry don't remember who) that said that if things were going good for Rusia we would have see plenty of victorious footage.

And that is not the case, at least till now.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

Funny Russians - they have a short memory!









Russia threatens ‘military and political consequences’ if Finland, Sweden try joining NATO


Russia threatened “military and political consequences” against Finland and Sweden on Friday if they attempted to join NATO.Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned against othe…




thehill.com

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## msxyz (Feb 27, 2022)

I've the bad feeling that the war in Ukraine is just like Archduke Ferdinand's assassination in 1914. It doesn't matter how it will end on the field. It will be just the starting point for something more sinister especially for Europe.

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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

Alarmist views like that don’t help either IMHO.

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## msxyz (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Alarmist views like that don’t help either IMHO.


People like Kissinger have been predicting where things would be headed even 10 years ago but went unheard. 

As citizen of a country which had friendly ties with both Ukraine and Russia, I would have liked to see my government to take a stance as neutral as possible. Instead, it's being sucked into the general "either with us or against us" prevailing narrative of the west. This alone is a tell-tale sign that the fate of Ukraine is of rather secondary importance in the grand scheme of things. When you see two friends fighting, even if one of them started the fight, you just don't rush headlong into the fray. You try to separate them and then listen to the reasons of both of them. That is what sane persons would do.


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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

msxyz said:


> People like Kissinger have been predicting where things would be headed even 10 years ago but went unheard.
> 
> As citizen of a country which had friendly ties with both Ukraine and Russia, I would have liked to see my government to take a stance as neutral as possible. Instead, it's being sucked into the general "either with us or against us" prevailing narrative of the west. This alone is a tell-tale sign that the fate of Ukraine is of rather secondary importance in the grand scheme of things. When you see two friends fighting, even if one of them started the fight, you just don't rush headlong into the fray. You try to separate them and then listen to the reasons of both of them. That is what sane persons would do.


You’d rather be a Nevil Chamberlain than Winston Churchill is what you are saying?

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

So what you saying you ok that Russia is invading Ukraine. You ok that Russia is killing Ukraine civilians.
You ok that Russia wants to put in a puppet government. This ain't a fight between friends...how do I know that?

BECAUSE FRIENDS DON'T INVADE EACH OTHER!!!

This is war. Red in tooth and nail with military consequences.

And other countries are next. So the Kremlin has said that there will be consequences if Finland and Sweden join NATO. When did the Kremlin decide who joins NATO? So that's a no. Kremlin just threatened Sweden and Finland so bring neutral ain't going to do nothing.

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## Snautzer01 (Feb 27, 2022)

msxyz said:


> When you see two friends fighting, even if one of them started the figh


Ofcourse Putin will directly stop and listen to a befriended nation. Yes he always does that or is he? No wait he doesnt gives a rats ass about other nations opinions. Never did never will. So now what do you propose?

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## msxyz (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> You’d rather be a Nevil Chamberlain than Winston Churchill is what you are saying?


UK at the time was like the US of today and it couldn't ignore the developing situation in Europe, since her influence was at stake. In the end, after WW2, UK lost his position as dominant country and her empire anyway, so in retrospect either choice leads to UK loosing the primacy. That's a good example of how empires come and go and mankind repeats the same mistakes.

India, in recent times, it's a perfect example of a country trying to maintain a perfect balance and neutrality (even with their border disputes with China. Neither country is so stupid as to escalate the tensions outside of the contested regions).


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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He's proving to be more than a little Churchillian in his ability to inspire his people.


He is doing much better than many of us (myself included), expected. The little funny boy has grown up fast. Miracles happen.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

What has the British Empire got to do with Ukraine?

Are we invading Ukraine? I would not support invading Ukraine. I hope next time we invade Ukraine, someone tells me. 

Although if Britain did invade Ukraine we would hopefully be doing a better job than the shower trying it at the moment.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Whatever happened it's clear Plan A didn't work.
> 
> I would assume the Russian just thought turning up would be enough.
> 
> ...


Unfortunately, Kremlin has plans B, C and probably more. I don't know what letter they have assigned for the nuclear attack. If someone says "impossible", I'll just shrug and remind that it was impossible to strike Kyiv with missiles just 4 days ago. And to send armour groups into Ukraine until August 2014. And to bomb the merchant port of Poti, Georgia until August 2008. Etc.
Slippery slope or well though policy? Probably, it doesn't matter anymore.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Ukrainian Air Force Command reported the first shipment of air-to-air missiles arrived from the West.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, there is a large number of volunteers heading to the Ukraine to join the fight.
> 
> I was just reading that volunteers are coming from Croatia, Israel and even some Americans who were working for a tech company (Just Answer) in the Ukraine joined in.


Zelensky has invited international volunteers officially and promised that there will be a separate unit for them.
Allegedly, French Legion's command allowed Ukrainians to take leave and to return to the homeland.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Many Eastern Europeans have seen that before... Note, these "liberators" can not be hungry or exhausted. They left their camps probably just a few hours ago.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Ukrainian Air Force Command reported the first shipment of air-to-air missiles arrived from the West.


Air to Air? There are western AAM compatible with soviet/russian hardware?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Many Eastern Europeans have seen that before... Note, these "liberators" can not be hungry or exhausted. They left their camps probably just a few hours ago.



Looting food in the supermarket speaks a lot about logistical problems.

Did the russian troops got briefed that they would be received as liberators?

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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> What has the British Empire got to do with Ukraine?





The Basket said:


> Are we invading Ukraine? I would not support invading Ukraine. I hope next time we invade Ukraine, someone tells me.
> 
> Although if Britain did invade Ukraine we would hopefully be doing a better job than the shower trying it at the moment.


Not really a fair comment as it was I who made the comparison to Chamberlain and Churchill.

Maybe a better comparison would be my own country. We tried to stay neutral in 1939 and look what happened.
I think the reason that we cannot and should not stay neutral is because of the lessons learned in 1939/1940.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

There are NATO countries that have R-73 so I would assume that's the missile they talking about.

Although if Ukraine still has jet fighters is a moot point.

We all seem to be on the same page so any Russian Bot is wasting pixels if he tried to sell his Soviet Propaganda on here.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I wish I could be so optimistic. I still believe we’re only fed the info that we are supposed to get. Not that I blame them for doing that.
> 
> But I hope it’s true that it’s going bad for the Russians. That it’s not going to plan is to be expected. The first casualty of war is always the plan.
> 
> *I fear that the only solution is that the Russian people stand up for themselves.* And I don’t see that happen very soon.



The bold part is what I pray for.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

Germany is boosting its defense budget this year to the tune of €100 billion. That’s a BIG increase but a one-off spend by one country is t going to alter the trajectory of European armed forces and NATO defense. The spending needs to be sustained for years, and forces built up. However, maybe this is the start of Europe taking its own defense seriously once again. One can only hope….

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## J_P_C (Feb 27, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Air to Air? There are western AAM compatible with soviet/russian hardware?





Dimlee said:


> Many Eastern Europeans have seen that before... Note, these "liberators" can not be hungry or exhausted. They left their camps probably just a few hours ago.




worth to watch

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

I’m hearing reports that Russian troops have broken through into Kyiv. Fierce fighting in the streets.


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## J_P_C (Feb 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m hearing reports that Russian troops have broken through into Kyiv. Fierce fighting in the streets.


i think Ukrainian Army has initiated new tactics - they let Russians penetrate their defense just to separate and totally destroy frontal elements of russian troops - looks like they did it today's morning at Kharkov

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Whatever works

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## tomo pauk (Feb 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i think Ukrainian Army has initiated new tactics - they let Russians penetrate their defense just to separate and totally destroy frontal elements of russian troops - looks like they did it today's morning at Kharkov



They are applying the old tactics. It worked for months in Vukovar, and it worked in 1st Chechen war.

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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

No bodies.

So we're they destroyed in combat or did they run out of fuel? And then destroyed?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Problem is that if he looks weak then his whole schtick is that he isn't.
> 
> I would assume the plan would be that Ukraine folds like paper and the West cowers like old ladies hiding under their beds. Plus how is Putin going to create a puppet Ukrainian state now?
> 
> ...



Quoth Sun-Tzu: "Never interrupt an enemy when he's making a mistake."

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

The battle of Bucha aftermath. 3-4 km from Kyiv. Today.
Local resident walking around the destroyed RF column and damaged buildings, obviously shocked and very angry.
By the way, he speaks and curses mostly in Russian. The one who does not want to be "liberated", obviously.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> No bodies.
> 
> So we're they destroyed in combat or did they run out of fuel? And then destroyed?


Dispersed, ran away, some captured, some dead and bodies moved out.


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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Air to Air? There are western AAM compatible with soviet/russian hardware?


Old stocks, probably? Or someone cared to make the systems compatible...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

BBC was reporting this morning that the Ukrainians repulsed a Russian amphibious assault near Odessa.



Dimlee said:


> Old stocks, probably? Or someone cared to make the systems compatible...



The Germans inherited Soviet equipment when the reunion happened, perhaps they came from that?


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## The Basket (Feb 27, 2022)

Mr Putin has put his nuclear forces on special alert.

So my goodness. Its going down.

That's what I call spicy.

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## Dana Bell (Feb 27, 2022)

I'm almost as concerned that the sanctions _will _work as I am that they might not. While it's easy to compare what's happening today to the Nazis creating WW2 (with a bit of help from the Soviets, remember), there is also the problem of sanctions against the Japanese for their war against China. As the sanctions succeeded and the Japanese economy began to fail, Japanese militarists realized that they had only months to attack America - this led to Pearl Harbor, and we all know what that led to.

My concern right now is that Vlad is hungry; what will happen if the sanctions make him desparate?

Cheers,



Dana

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Mr Putin has put his nuclear forces on special alert.
> 
> So my goodness. Its going down.
> 
> That's what I call spicy.



He needs to be removed.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

It has been suspected and now it is confirmed.
An-225 Mriya has been destroyed in her hangar on the Gostomel (Antonov) airfield. Most probably during the first attack 3 days ago.
She was great.





Turn to 11


Turn your amplifier to 11 before watching... :cool:



ww2aircraft.net

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> My concern right now is that Vlad is hungry; what will happen if the sanctions make him desparate?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...



That’s my biggest fear. I really hope there are Russians that see that he is a threat to the entire world including Russia and forcibly remove him before he does something beyond stupid.

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## J_P_C (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Old stocks, probably? Or someone cared to make the systems compatible...


old stocks - standarization is only for bomb racks - NATO and soviet/russians have exactly the same dimmensions allowing using captured dumb bombs - of course smart weapons not as much - mostly requiring digital connection to fire control system

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> It has been suspected and now it is confirmed.
> An-225 Mriya has been destroyed in her hangar on the Gostomel (Antonov) airfield. Most probably during the first attack 3 days ago.
> She was great.
> 
> ...


It came once to Gran Canaria (LPA airport). Even from the highway a couple of kms away was an awesome sight. Truly one of a kind.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

Ukraine Creates Foreign Legion as Volunteers From Abroad Join the Fight


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would welcome foreigners to fight for the country.




www.newsweek.com





I expect Poles will join, plus anyone else who fancies shooting some Russians.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i think Ukrainian Army has initiated new tactics - they let Russians penetrate their defense just to separate and totally destroy frontal elements of russian troops - looks like they did it today's morning at Kharkov


Obviously the russian bear couldn't tackled head on but seems like that ukrainians were well aware of that and have opted for ambushing it..

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

_The U.S. and its allies have beefed up forces on NATO's eastern flank but so far have ruled out deploying troops to fight Russia. Instead, the U.S., the European Union and other countries have slapped wide-ranging sanctions on Russia, freezing the assets of businesses and individuals including Putin and his foreign minister.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, warned that Moscow could react by opting out of the last remaining nuclear arms pact, freezing Western assets and cutting diplomatic ties.

“There is no particular need in maintaining diplomatic relations,” Medvedev said. “We may look at each other in binoculars and gunsights.”_









Russia hits Ukraine fuel supplies, airfields in new attacks


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia unleashed a wave of attacks on Ukraine targeting airfields and fuel facilities in what appeared to be the next phase of an invasion that has been slowed by fierce resist…




thehill.com





Losing the treaty is not good at all, but the rest of it, meh.

NPR is reporting that in addition to boosting Germany's defense budget by €100bil this year alone, Schulz plans to finance two offshore LNG terminals to relieve Germany's reliance on Russian gas.

Also:

_KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia unleashed a wave of attacks on Ukraine targeting airfields and fuel facilities in what appeared to be the next phase of an invasion that has been slowed by fierce resistance. The U.S. and EU responded with weapons and ammunition for the outnumbered Ukrainians and powerful sanctions intended to further isolate Moscow.

Huge explosions lit up the sky early Sunday south of the capital, Kyiv, where people hunkered down in homes, underground garages and subway stations in anticipation of a full-scale assault by Russian forces.

Flames billowed into the air before dawn from an oil depot near the Zhuliany airport, about 25 miles (40 kilometers) south of the capital, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office and the mayor of the nearby town of Vasylkiv.

Zelenskyy's office also said Russian forces blew up a gas pipeline in Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, prompting the government to warn people to protect themselves from the smoke by covering their windows with damp cloth or gauze.

"We will fight for as long as needed to liberate our country," Zelenskyy vowed._









Russia hits Ukraine fuel supplies and airfields in fresh attacks


The latest wave of attacks targeted Ukrainian airfields and fuel supplies as the Russian invasion appears to have been blunted by fierce resistance even as the U.S. and EU send Ukraine more weapons.




www.npr.org

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

For all the videos we’re seeing of armed groups and burned out columns of purportedly Russian AFVs, I‘ve seen none of actual combat with the Russians.

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## swampyankee (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Where are the F-22s?





Dimlee said:


> It has been suspected and now it is confirmed.
> An-225 Mriya has been destroyed in her hangar on the Gostomel (Antonov) airfield. Most probably during the first attack 3 days ago.
> She was great.
> 
> ...


Saw it taking off from Bradley when I worked at Hamilton Standard.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)



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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

Not happy with the developments, although it seems there are some negotiations going on. Not sure how serious we should take those though.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Not happy with the developments, although it seems there are some negotiations going on. Not sure how serious we should take those though.



It is definitely a very alarming and scary situation. Putin has to go.

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## fubar57 (Feb 27, 2022)

For what its worth.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-putin-nuclear-1.6366262


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> BBC was reporting this morning that the Ukrainians repulsed a Russian amphibious assault near Odessa.
> 
> 
> 
> The Germans inherited Soviet equipment when the reunion happened, perhaps they came from that?


Looks like the AAM came from Poland

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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)




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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> For all the videos we’re seeing of armed groups and burned out columns of purportedly Russian AFVs, I‘ve seen none of actual combat with the Russians.



I'd imagine they were kinda busy at the moment ...

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

This is not the first time I've heard about them running out of fuel, which is why I was surprised when they destroyed a fuel depot.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> This is not the first time I've heard about them running out of fuel, which is why I was surprised when they destroyed a fuel depot.


Artillery is only so good as the FO. They don't seem to have any FO...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd imagine they were kinda busy at the moment ...



Can you imagine it?

"Viktor, wtf are you doing taking a selfie?! Shoot the goddamned thing and _then_ take your freakin' pics!"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)



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## Glider (Feb 27, 2022)

One of the major surprises to me anyway, is the lack of combat the Russian Airforce seem to be involved in. They had a huge numerical advantage and knowing how they don't like to export equipment equal to their own, probably a technical advantage. They would have known where the Ukraine airbases are and by now I would have expected them to be all over the battlefield.

The stingers which have been supplied would be a deterrent, but no more. Does anyone know more about this than myself?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> One of the major surprises to me anyway, is the lack of combat the Russian Airforce seem to be involved in. They had a huge numerical advantage and knowing how they don't like to export equipment equal to their own, probably a technical advantage. They would have known where the Ukraine airbases are and by now I would have expected them to be all over the battlefield.
> 
> The stingers which have been supplied would be a deterrent, but no more. Does anyone know more about this than myself?



There are reports the Russians are suffering fuel shortages. Maybe this plays a factor?


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## Glider (Feb 27, 2022)

Not at an airbase miles from the front line. I can see difficulties in supplying the front line but not airbases that would have been prepared for the conflict.

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## ThomasP (Feb 27, 2022)

It is a distinct possibility (at least in my mind) that the Russian high command is keeping the majority of its (operable) air force out of the Ukraine conflict in order to have it available in case NATO takes action. In a serious war between NATO and the Russian Federation, NATO would shred the RF air forces, possibly at very high cost, but still . . .

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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> One of the major surprises to me anyway, is the lack of combat the Russian Airforce seem to be involved in. They had a huge numerical advantage and knowing how they don't like to export equipment equal to their own, probably a technical advantage. They would have known where the Ukraine airbases are and by now I would have expected them to be all over the battlefield.
> 
> The stingers which have been supplied would be a deterrent, but no more. Does anyone know more about this than myself?


It appears that the Russian Air Force has not been as active the past day or so as it was early on.
I am suspecting that since Russian forces have not been successful in disabling Ukraine's command and control, coupled with losing over five fighters, several helicopters and transport aircraft, they have limited their missions - perhaps waiting for successes in Kiev via the ground war?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> Not at an airbase miles from the front line. I can see difficulties in supplying the front line but not airbases that would have been prepared for the conflict.



We don’t know the entire Russian supply system, or if those shortages extend outside of the conflict.

I don’t see any other reason, unless Ukraine has air superiority. Why would you not use your aircraft more?


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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There are reports the Russians are suffering fuel shortages. Maybe this plays a factor?


I’ve seen commentary about Russia wanting territory for defense and to acquire Ukrainian coastal energy resources too. This would strengthen Russia as a Europe’s Petro State.
If Russia is a petroleum giant, why are their vehicles running out? Has the Oligarchy been selling the stuff for ?????
This whole attack seems half-hearted. Are the forces sent in some kind of sacrificial bait? Waiting to see how quickly NATO caves? 
Any of that abandoned equipment being refurbished? I kind of always liked T-55s.


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

Russia lost 14 planes, 8 helicopters, 102 tanks, 536 BBM, 15 heavy machine guns, and 1 BUK missile since Feb. 24, according to Ukraine's military. 

The Kremlin also lost over 3,500 soldiers, Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Feb. 26. Nearly 200 service members have been kept hostage.









Russia faces heavy losses as it attacks Ukraine on all fronts


Russia lost 14 planes, 8 helicopters, 102 tanks, 536 BBM, 15 heavy machine guns, and 1 BUK missile since Feb. 24, according to Ukraine's military. The Kremlin also lost over 3,500 soldiers, Ukraine’s Armed Forces said on Feb. 26. Nearly 200 service




kyivindependent.com





What is really interesting to me is the Ukraine has started a website listing the names of Russian solders killed and those captured. They includes pics of IDs and such.








Ukraine Launches Website for Russians to Find Killed Soldiers - The Moscow Times


Ukrainian authorities on Sunday launched a website to help Russian families track down soldiers who have been killed or captured fighting in Moscow's invasion of the pro-Western country. The site — 200rf.com — contains pictures of the documents and corpses of Russian soldiers Ukraine said had...




www.themoscowtimes.com





to bypass the article, the website is Ищи своих

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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> For all the videos we’re seeing of armed groups and burned out columns of purportedly Russian AFVs, I‘ve seen none of actual combat with the Russians.


Mysterious isn't it. Like in the horror movie, where people just - poof! - and disappear. 

But seriously, do not expect foreign reporters to be present at the real fighting scene. Even if they are brave (or reckless), how do they know what happens and where? There is no static frontline, except in some areas in the East. As for the Ukrainian combat videos, they are classified.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Not happy with the developments, although it seems there are some negotiations going on. Not sure how serious we should take those though.


We should not. 
Immediately after the announcement of the talks, at least two missiles were launched from the territory of Belarus. One has stricken the airfield in Zhytomyr, another one - Chernihiv downtown.

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## Dimlee (Feb 27, 2022)

A glimpse into the ops room. According to the background talk, the operators were disappointed that all munitions were used and the UAV should be returned to the base. And they mentioned the destruction of at least one Buk launcher in the earlier attack.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> A glimpse into the ops room. According to the background talk, the operators were disappointed that all munitions were used and the UAV should be returned to the base. And they mentioned the destruction of at least one Buk launcher in the earlier attack.



A tight column like that is a recipe for disaster if they get striked

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## tomo pauk (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> And they mentioned the destruction of at least one Buk launcher in the earlier attack.



Video shoving the Buk launcher is destroyed (~ 1 min in the video), plus a truck before that.


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## Marcel (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> We should not.
> Immediately after the announcement of the talks, at least two missiles were launched from the territory of Belarus. One has stricken the airfield in Zhytomyr, another one - Chernihiv downtown.


I did not hear anything about a cease fire. But I agree, it’s quite probably that the Russians are not really serious about this.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

Something I've noticed about videos taken by Ukranian forces engaged with Russians, is that the Ukranians avoid showing Russian dead.

In this video, Ukranines have engaged and knocked out a convoy in Kharkiv. A lead vehicle is trying to get away and they take it out with RPGs.

There are two bodies between the vehicles and the sidewalk, but the cameraman goes to the far side of he vehicles while filming and once past where the dead are, moves to the other side of the convoy to view the lead vehicle that was just taken out - but does not zoom in for long, as there are two dead in the street (to the left of the truck).

So there are casualties, it just seems (at least to me) that the Ukranians do not not want to show them.









Ukrainian Troops Knock Out Russian Tigr-M Convoy In Kharkiv


Ukrainian troops successfully ambushed a Russian column of Tigr-M armored trucks in north east Kharkiv on Feb. 27, 2022.




funker530.com

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> But seriously, do not expect foreign reporters to be present at the real fighting scene.


Not reporters, but I expect all 30+ million Ukrainian adults have a cell cam.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Not reporters, but I expect all 30+ million Ukrainian adults have a cell cam.



Yes, but you can’t operate a weapon AND film with a cell phone. And if you’re in combat, your teammates won’t thank you for futzing around with a cell phone when you’re supposed to be fighting.

As for non-combatants, they should rightly be hiding as far from the fighting as they can manage.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yes, but you can’t operate a weapon AND film with a cell phone. And if you’re in combat, your teammates won’t thank you for futzing around with a cell phone when you’re supposed to be fighting.
> 
> As for non-combatants, they should rightly be hiding as far from the fighting as they can manage.



Should be obvious…lol

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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Not reporters, but I expect all 30+ million Ukrainian adults have a cell cam.


Yes, and some footage has been shared by civilians, like video taken from an apartment window showing the Russian truck that was caught by Ukraine troops, the driver and gunner killed.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Not happy with the developments, although it seems there are some negotiations going on. Not sure how serious we should take those though.


Of course there are negotiations. No one is coming to Ukraine’s direct aid, they can’t hold off the Russians forever, and Putin and the Russians can’t politically accept these unexpected losses. It‘s a stalemate that must now be settled diplomatically. Putin, like Asad is going nowhere.


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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

I'm sure there's many terrified people, hunkered down in place with nothing else to do, recording from their hidey holes.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It appears that the Russian Air Force has not been as active the past day or so as it was early on.
> I am suspecting that since Russian forces have not been successful in disabling Ukraine's command and control, coupled with losing over five fighters, several helicopters and transport aircraft, they have limited their missions - perhaps waiting for successes in Kiev via the ground war?



When we remember the weak state of the Russian aviation industry, they may well be concerned with their ability to replace losses quickly, especially now that significant cash reserves have been frozen.


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## fubar57 (Feb 27, 2022)

Real?

​


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

EU countries to send 'fighter jets' to Ukraine
We're going to provide even fighting jets. We're not talking about just ammunition.'

EU countries will send "fighter jets" to Ukraine at Kyiv's request to help it counter the Russian air and land assault, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.
"We're going to provide even fighting jets. We're not talking about just ammunition. We are providing more important arms to go to a war," he told a press conference.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the EU "they need the kind of fighting jets that the Ukrainian army is able to operate... some member states have these kinds of planes," Borrell said.






i24NEWS







www.i24news.tv

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## Glider (Feb 27, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Video shoving the Buk launcher is destroyed (~ 1 min in the video), plus a truck before that.


What struck me was the operators had plenty of time to pick the target they wanted and there didn't seem to be any action on the ground.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

More from the BBC about the latest UN move:

_In a rare move, the United Nations' Security Council has voted to hold an emergency special session of the General Assembly to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The meeting, scheduled for Monday, will give all 193 members the floor to provide their views on the attack.

Russia voted against the meeting, but under a particular UN resolution it was unable to veto the move.

The resolution, called "Uniting for Peace", allows members of the Security Council to call a special session with the General Assembly if the five permanent members (Russia, US, UK, France and China) cannot agree how to act together to maintain peace._


While I'm not a particular fan of the UN, I do think this is a very savvy move. First of all, Russia can't veto the emergency session so all the other nations get to say their piece. Secondly, we'll get a clear view of any nations still siding with Russia. Thirdly, it puts China squarely in the spotlight, throws into sharp focus the dilemma facing Beijing.

Monday could prove a really interesting day...I just hope it's in a good way!

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> EU countries to send 'fighter jets' to Ukraine
> We're going to provide even fighting jets. We're not talking about just ammunition.'
> 
> EU countries will send "fighter jets" to Ukraine at Kyiv's request to help it counter the Russian air and land assault, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.
> ...


OK, I’m all about giving them support but this is kind of ignorant. If we sent two squadrons of F-16s over to them, their pilots aren’t going to just jump in and start flying the aircraft, it’s going to take weeks if not months to train them up in the most simplest combat operations. Wishful thinking but their heart is in the right place.

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

After market trading the Ruble has lost half of it's value and a good chunk of Russian reserves are locked in foreign banks. Economist and several Russian billionaires are coming out against the war now. Putin's air of invincibility is cracking.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More from the BBC about the latest UN move:
> 
> _In a rare move, the United Nations' Security Council has voted to hold an emergency special session of the General Assembly to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> ...



My sense is that most countries are firmly against this, and rightfully so. Calling Russia out on the world stage is fair game.


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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> OK, I’m all about giving them support but this is kind of ignorant. If we sent two squadrons of F-16s over to them, their pilots aren’t going to just jump in and start flying the aircraft, it’s going to take weeks if not months to train them up in the most simplest combat operations. Wishful thinking but their heart is in the right place.


 They are sending fighters over they now how to fly, a number of EU countries have them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> OK, I’m all about giving them support but this is kind of ignorant. If we sent two squadrons of F-16s over to them, their pilots aren’t going to just jump in and start flying the aircraft, it’s going to take weeks if not months to train them up in the most simplest combat operations. Wishful thinking but their heart is in the right place.



Right, but several NATO countries have Soviet/Russian equipment, right? The Poles have MiG-29s, and iirc, the Germans have a stock of Soviet fighters inherited in that nation's reunion. Maybe that's the reason for the caveat, ""they need the kind of fighting jets that the Ukrainian army is able to operate"?

ETA: Granted, they're not top-of-the-line, and the Russians probably know well the strong- and weak-points, and how to combat them.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> OK, I’m all about giving them support but this is kind of ignorant. If we sent two squadrons of F-16s over to them, their pilots aren’t going to just jump in and start flying the aircraft, it’s going to take weeks if not months to train them up in the most simplest combat operations. Wishful thinking but their heart is in the right place.



Yeah, I’m interested in how this is going to work, unless it is EU countries with Migs and Suchois? Do any EU countries operate them?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> After market trading the Ruble has lost half of it's value and a good chunk of Russian reserves are locked in foreign banks. Economist and several Russian billionaires are coming out against the war now. Putin's air of invincibility is cracking.



I read he is increasingly isolated and at some compound in the Urals.

Kind of reminds you of the last days of WW2 in Europe in the Führerbunker.

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## Vincenzo (Feb 27, 2022)

Bulgaria has MiG-29, Su-25, L-39
Croazia has MiG-21
Polonia has MiG-29 and Su-22
Romania has MiG-21
Slovacchia has MiG-29 and L-39
this are operational type, in all around 110 airplanes and not all can gifted, at example Croazia at the MG-21 alone

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 27, 2022)

Since you mentioned the Führerbunker, I did see this protest sign.

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## Glider (Feb 27, 2022)

I notice the of all countries, Sweden has voted to give the Ukraine a fair amount of military equipment namely AT rockets, armour and ration packs. I cannot help but wonder if Putin's threat to Sweden and Finland a few days ago hasn't given them the nudge to join the support effort.
I think the last time Sweden gave any military support was in 1939 when it gave Finland some support.

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## tomo pauk (Feb 27, 2022)

Vincenzo said:


> Bulgaria has MiG-29, Su-25, L-39
> Croazia has MiG-21
> Polonia has MiG-29 and Su-22
> Romania has MiG-21
> ...



We like the Ukrainian pilots. Hence we will not give them any of our MiG-21s.
Polish MiG-29s (good deal of them are ex-DDR machines) on the other hand...


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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

There must be Russian films and TV shows about the last days in the fuhrerbunker, right? I don't know if he managed sole control of the keys or his villa is some kinda' Bond supervillain hideout but I hope someone can give Putin a timeout.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

And the EU continues measures across multiple fronts to deal with the Ukraine crisis:

_More now on the EU agreeing to take in Ukrainian refugees for up to three years without asking them to first apply for asylum. 

The BBC has been told that the vast majority of European interior ministers are in favour of invoking the EU's Temporary Protection Directive for the first time ever, to cope with the mass influx of displaced Ukrainians arriving in EU states.

Currently, Ukrainians can stay visa-free within the EU for 90 days. The EU says invoking the temporary protection directive would make it easier for Ukrainians to temporarily settle in EU countries, removing all paperwork associated with typical asylum applications.

Having received a majority of support, ministers can now take this to the next council meeting on Thursday. The commission will then have to come up with a full proposal for member states to sign up to._

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They are sending fighters over they now how to fly, a number of EU countries have them.


The only fighters that could possibly be sent to the Ukrainians that would be effective are MiG-29s, SU-2x series, L39ZA, from other former east bloc countries and maybe Germany still has a few MiG-29s left. Even then, the transition isn’t going to be that quick. If this was done when troops were massing on the Ukraine border, they might have an ample amount of pilots trained up by now. I’m still baffled about the lack of Russian air power, something definitely is not right. From what I understand, the Ukrainian MiG-29s were recently modified to perform a ground attack role as well as air to air


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## ThomasP (Feb 27, 2022)

I agree something is not right. It is almost as if Putin has been pressured into this, and is putting on a show to distract from something else. (I am assuming he has not actually gone senile.)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I agree something is not right. It is almost as if Putin has been pressured into this, and is putting on a show to distract from something else. (I am assuming he has not actually gone senile.)



That or his military commanders are completely inept.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> OK, I’m all about giving them support but this is kind of ignorant. If we sent two squadrons of F-16s over to them, their pilots aren’t going to just jump in and start flying the aircraft…


I assumed they came equipped with that essential part, the volunteer foreign pilot. 

Like the Russian pilots in the VPAF during the Vietnam War, or the American and other foreign pilots who volunteered in the Spanish Civil War.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There must be Russian films and TV shows about the last days in the fuhrerbunker, right? I don't know if he managed sole control of the keys or his villa is some kinda' Bond supervillain hideout but I hope someone can give Putin a timeout.



Go to 00:54 in this clip:

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I assumed they came equipped with that essential part, the volunteer foreign pilot.


We can only hope


Admiral Beez said:


> Like the *Russian pilots in the VPAF *during the Vietnam War, or the American and other foreign pilots who volunteered in the Spanish Civil War.


That was never fully confirmed. Korea, yes.

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## ThomasP (Feb 27, 2022)

Hey DerAdlerIstGelandet,

re "That or his military commanders are completely inept."

I do not know if that would explain it. The Ukraine has ~200,000 active military personnel (~170,000 ground forces), plus ~60,000 national guard, plus ~50,000 quasi-military border police. And the total population is around 44,000,000 people. You can not be anyway sure of winning a military action at ~1:1 odds on the ground, and there is no way the RF could sustain an occupation of Ukraine that would not be a disaster in terms of expense (even without the new economic sanctions).

Maybe if he appointed people to the positions that had no military strategy training? The majority of the wargamers I know understand the historical odds factor for attack vs defense, and basic logistics.

If I let my paranoia loose, it is as if this is a side show, or maybe expected to become a side show.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey DerAdlerIstGelandet,
> 
> re "That or his military commanders are completely inept."
> 
> ...



I think the buildup campaign over the last six months was hoped to undermine Ukrainian morale, and that the hope was for a walkover as a result.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

A possible hiccup for Britons who want to join the cause.









Liz Truss criticised for backing Britons who wish to fight in Ukraine


Present and former Conservatives warn that anyone volunteering for combat in embattled country will be breaking the law




www.theguardian.com





_"The comments of the foreign secretary may be entirely honourable and understandable, but unless the UK government gives formal licence to people to go to Ukraine, they would be in breach of the Foreign Enlistment Act and committing a criminal offence," said Grieve, who left the Conservative party over Brexit._

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## ww2restorer (Feb 27, 2022)

I don't see it posted, however a couple of days ago, the Russian destroyed the Antonov 225


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## ThomasP (Feb 27, 2022)

The US has a similar law:

Title 18 U.S. Code § 959 - Enlistment in foreign service

(a) Whoever, within the United States, enlists or enters himself, or hires or retains another to enlist or enter himself, or to go beyond the jurisdiction of the United States with intent to be enlisted or entered in the service of any foreign prince, state, colony, district, or people as a soldier or as a marine or seaman on board any vessel of war, letter of marque, or privateer, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

(b) . . .

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

This convoy will be target #1 tonight. The West likely has satellites positioned right on top to guide Ukrainian missile and ground strikes.









Massive Convoy Of Hundreds Of Russian Military Vehicles Stretching For Miles Spotted Heading To Kyiv | The Daily Wire







www.dailywire.com













Russian convoy of ground forces, tanks moving toward Kyiv, Maxar says


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Satellite imagery taken on Sunday showed a large deployment of Russian ground forces including tanks moving in the direction of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv from approximately 40 miles (64 km) away, a private U.S. company said. The images released by Maxar Technologies Inc...




news.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This convoy will be target #1 tonight. The West likely has satellites positioned right on top.



... and no doubt this is being shared as close to real-time as possible with the Ukrainians.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The US has a similar law:
> 
> Title 18 U.S. Code § 959 - Enlistment in foreign service
> 
> ...


And depending who that foreign prince, state, colony, district is, this has been ignored.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And depending who that foreign prince, state, colony, district is, this has been ignored.


Indeed. It’s one thing to go to Syria to join ISIS, another to serve alongside the West’s friends in Ukraine against Putin.

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 27, 2022)

Then there was the Abraham Lincoln Battalion in Spain 1937-38


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## special ed (Feb 27, 2022)

Those who went to Canada to fly for the RAF were forgiven.

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 27, 2022)

Did any go to Germany?
I know that a number of Japanese-Americans either joined or were impressed into the Japanese armed forces.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> We can only hope











Can Ukraine Really Use Donated Fighter Jets? That Depends


After EU says it will send some aircraft to Ukraine, a retired U.S. fighter chief explains how that might work.




www.defenseone.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Did any go to Germany?
> I know that a number of Japanese-Americans either joined or were impressed into the Japanese armed forces.



I've read of Americans who served under German colors. I'll have to look again for specifics so apply salt as needed.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Then there was the Abraham Lincoln Battalion in Spain 1937-38


Many of them came back to the US and were labeled communists. Elena Roosevelt helped preventing them from being persecuted

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> Those who went to Canada to fly for the RAF were forgiven.



Not according to William Ash who flew Spitfires for the RAF. His autobiography notes that he was stripped of his American citizenship and ended up settling in the UK and became a British citizen.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Can Ukraine Really Use Donated Fighter Jets? That Depends
> 
> 
> After EU says it will send some aircraft to Ukraine, a retired U.S. fighter chief explains how that might work.
> ...


Neither here nor there but what if the U.S. offered to replace Ukraine bound MiG-29s/SU-25s with F-16s or F/A-18s? What kind of message would it send?

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 27, 2022)

Many Americans that fought for the UK were repatriated during the war, being transferred back into US units. Ajax Baumler, who had flown for the Republicans in Spain, had his passport revoked to prevent him from joining the AVG.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Neither here nor there but what if the U.S. offered to replace Ukraine bound MiG-29s/SU-25s with F-16s or F/A-18s? What kind of message would it send?


Some degree of US plausible deniability would be necessary. The USAF has twenty or so MiG-29s. Those would be the ones to send.









The Secret Is Out: America Purchased 21 Russian MiG-29 Fighters (Here Is What Happenned)


One test pilot concluded that the Fulcrum’s “abilities equals and sometimes even exceeds those of the F-15 and F-16 jets. The aircraft is highly maneuverable, and its engines provide higher weight to thrust ratio. Our pilots must be careful with this aircraft in air combat. Flown by a well...




nationalinterest.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Many Americans that fought for the UK were repatriated during the war, being transferred back into US units. Ajax Baumler, who had flown for the Republicans in Spain, had his passport revoked to prevent him from joining the AVG.



Thanks for the tip ... that guy was just looking for a scrap!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Some degree of US plausible deniability would be necessary. The USAF has twenty or so MiG-29s. Those would be the ones to send.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't see deniability being a hurdle. We can lend, give, or sell our planes as we see fit. If Russia has a problem with America sending planes to European countries, I'm sure they would have said something by now.

Rob was talking about backfilling the donated Soviet equipment with American replacements. There might be some retraining involved but there's certainly not any legal issues.

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## special ed (Feb 27, 2022)

I had a USAF instructor, who when he was 18, left to join the RCAF to get into the Battle of Britain. He told of the bus stopping at the border while he and one other walked across, then reboarded the bus on the Canadian side. I think the year he went was 1940 but we heard this in 1959-60. He was disappointed that he was trained as a bomber pilot because that was who they most needed at the time. The part that made him smile was when telling of disembarking from the ship. An RAF sargeant told the bomber pilots to line up here and the fighter pilots over here. It seems the paperwork didn't make the ship. He said he and two other guys lined up as fighter pilots and the rest of the 200 lined up as bomber pilots. He told us the Battle of Britain was long over by that time, but he flew 22 Hurricane strike missions across the channel and just had received Spitfires, and on his second Spitfire mission was met when he parked and was told the CO wanted him. He then flew 25 missions, or what was a normal tour, in Wellingtons. He told us at the end of the 25, the crew could request new crew assignment and the only one of his original crew who stayed was the tail gunner who requested top gunner position. The ex-tail gunner was killed on their second mission of the new crew. He was called into the CO's office more than once being told the USAAC wanted him to transfer, but each time he requested to stay with the RCAF, although he was told he could get US pay if he transferred. Eventually, the CO told him that the US HQ was making it difficult for his British superiors, so he transferred. He commented about signing papers which restored his citizenship, as he had to renounce US citizenship to join RCAF. He got his wish to fly fighters, just not in combat. He was sent home to the US as an instructor and did get to fly P-47s.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Some degree of US plausible deniability would be necessary. The USAF has twenty or so MiG-29s. Those would be the ones to send.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


All good but how are they configured? What avionics to they have? Is all the support equipment available? As mentioned earlier, Ukraine's MiG-29s were recently given a strike capability. I would suspect these MiG-29s owned by the US are configured for an air to air role. This has to be planned and integrated into their forces. Sure, this could be expedited but I still see it taking weeks if not months to accomplish.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Many Americans that fought for the UK were repatriated during the war, being transferred back into US units. Ajax Baumler, who had flown for the Republicans in Spain, had his passport revoked to prevent him from joining the AVG.


Read this book a few months ago. Frank Tinker 8 kills over Spain.


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## wlewisiii (Feb 27, 2022)

I only have this as a jpg not as a link to twitter. That said, this is amazing.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Some degree of US plausible deniability would be necessary. The USAF has twenty or so MiG-29s. Those would be the ones to send.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I didn't know we had them, or at least that many of them. Yes to plausible deniability. Trans-ship these high mileage, no book value planes () to ??? Still, replace the diminished air arms of friends who seem to be out of WP fighters with a more NATO flavored variety. 
I just watched an interview with Condoleezza Rice. She said (not a direct quote) that she had never seen NATO so unified nor had she ever expected it to before the invasion. Aren't there former Soviet republics now considering NATO membership that hadn't before?


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## GrauGeist (Feb 27, 2022)

This may shed some light on the jets intended for the Ukraine:
"Josep Borrell, a Spanish politician currently serving as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and as Vice-President of the European Commission, announced earlier today that the bloc would provide funding for Ukraine to purchase fighter jets from unspecified member states. While he did not identify what types of aircraft might be headed to Ukraine in the near future, he did *indicate that they would be ones that the Ukrainian Air Force already operates, which would help get them into combat faster*. This is just one part of a larger military assistance package valued at 450 million Euros, or just over $501 million at the rate of conversion at the time of writing."
(My bold).

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## SaparotRob (Feb 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't see deniability being a hurdle. We can lend, give, or sell our planes as we see fit. If Russia has a problem with America sending planes to European countries, I'm sure they would have said something by now.
> 
> Rob was talking about backfilling the donated Soviet equipment with American replacements. There might be some retraining involved but there's certainly not any legal issues.


Yup, and with a hand-off, all sorts diplomatic shenanigans can ensue. 
"What? No sir, we're not arming any combatants."

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## buffnut453 (Feb 27, 2022)

The latest twist…..according to US officials, Belarus is now considering deploying its own forces to support the Russian invasion. Until now, Belarus has simply been a launching point for Russian forces. Sending its own forces adds yet another dimension in this complicated debacle.

It’s possible that Belarus, having already been included in western sanctions for its role to-date, simply decided that it may as well join the party wholeheartedly. 

It’s also possible that Putin asked for (ordered?) deeper Belarus involvement in a bid to accelerate overwhelming Ukrainian defences.

Regardless, it’s a rather unwelcome development.

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## J_P_C (Feb 27, 2022)

if some body speak about transferring -29th from EU member state it may be just Poland and Bulgaria, this two countries are last possesors of the type. Polish Migs are in better technical condition - if US promised speed up F35 shipmentsN F16 assmbly line in Mielec will be commissioned faster than anticipated it seams to be logical decision.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Bulgaria has about 15 MiG-29s, which are soon to be replaced.

Slovakia operates MiG-29s and I beleive that Hungary and Romania may theirs stored.

Poland would be the major source, as they received quite a few from neighboring nations in addition to their own.

I don't think Serbia will be interested in selling theirs.

And that's just MiG-29s, the Ukraine also operates Su-24, Su-25 and Su-27 aircraft.

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## Marcel (Feb 28, 2022)

Von der Leyden now offered the Ukraine membership of the EU. It’sa provocation of Putin if ever saw one. With Putin clattering with his nukes, they must be damn sure he is not going to use them.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> if some body speak about transferring -29th from EU member state it may be just Poland and Bulgaria, this two countries are last possesors of the type. Polish Migs are in better technical condition -* if US promised speed up F35 shipments*N F16 assmbly line in Mielec will be commissioned faster than anticipated it seams to be logical decision.


Agree about the aircraft coming from Poland. 

As far as "speeding up F-35 shipments," that will not happen for a number of reasons - first, the pace of production has been contracted and more than likely "the customer," be it the US or a foreign buyer will make progress payments based on that negotiated production rate. Second, vendor made parts and sub-assemblies will have to be accelerated, some of these items like landing gear are long lead time items so that will definitely impact any accelerated timeline. Third consideration, someone will have to come up with a contract modification and money to LMCO to make this happen, LMCO will not make any attempt to bring in additional resources on their own. The last major consideration (there are many more) is once you get everything in place you will need the people to support production, and keep in mind that you re going to have a learning curve once you get everything in place.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

The Bulgarian Air Force is set to replace their MiG-29s with F-16s by 2024.

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## at6 (Feb 28, 2022)

Putin should be made to realize that one nuclear launch will mean total destruction of his own country. War is terrible but nuclear war with no response is worse. My prayers are with the people of the Ukraine. May god grant you victory.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

Whow, one go to sleep and, at wake up, a bunch of things started to pick up.

As for the Condoleza Rice remarks, I fully agree. I don't know if NATO was ever so united. Even the EU looks like a solid block and even UK is playing like it's an member state yet.

That german pledge to spike the defense expending, the change in Finland and Sweden position in the joining NATO, the military help from the west to Ukrainia are all not very foresable at the beginning of the crisis.

For the lack of performance of the RF, it could leas to 21st century purgues?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I only have this as a jpg not as a link to twitter. That said, this is amazing.
> 
> View attachment 659619


When heavier the censorship, the people became smarter.

Hurrah for the old lady!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Agree about the aircraft coming from Poland.
> 
> As far as "speeding up F-35 shipments," that will not happen for a number of reasons - first, the pace of production has been contracted and more than likely "the customer," be it the US or a foreign buyer will make progress payments based on that negotiated production rate. Second, vendor made parts and sub-assemblies will have to be accelerated, some of these items like landing gear are long lead time items so that will definitely impact any accelerated timeline. Third consideration, someone will have to come up with a contract modification and money to LMCO to make this happen, LMCO will not make any attempt to bring in additional resources on their own. The last major consideration (there are many more) is once you get everything in place you will need the people to support production, and keep in mind that you re going to have a learning curve once you get everything in place.


In order to speed up things, it could be posible that those F-35A intended for the agressor squadrons instead be sent to, say, Poland so training start earlier and when the real deal arrived in place the pilots were almost combat capable?

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## msxyz (Feb 28, 2022)

Since a war is not only fought with weapons, here's an interesting news coming from the Shagai stock market. Chinese Payment Stocks Soar Amid SWIFT Curbs Against Russia

Stock tied to CIPS (China's own alternative to SWIFT) are soaring. So much, in fact that trading had to be suspended once some of them reached a +20% appreciation in one day.
'De-dollarization' of the world is the end game. Taking away the control of the financial markets from the US, UK and EU will make the 'west' irrelevant. This war is not about Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

msxyz said:


> Since a war is not only fought with weapons, here's an interesting news coming from the Shagai stock market. Chinese Payment Stocks Soar Amid SWIFT Curbs Against Russia
> 
> Stock tied to CIPS (China's own alternative to SWIFT) are soaring. So much, in fact that trading had to be suspended once some of them reached a +20% appreciation in one day.
> 'De-dollarization' of the world is the end game. Taking away the control of the financial markets from the US, UK and EU will make the 'west' irrelevant. This war is not about Ukraine.



And yet CIPS operates at a tiny fraction of the level of SWIFT. Democratic nations, which make up the vast majority of international trade, are not going to flip from SWIFT to CIPS. Yes, CIPS may get a larger share of the pie but I just don’t see it getting a dominant slice.

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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

My view is that the invasion was going to be a cake walk. And that was planned for. Not what is going on now.

Also the West is united. Even this forum is united. So that must be a first. 

If Putin and the Russian forces genuinely believed this was a peace keeping mission then this would account for the mess. 

The idea that Putin would be overthrown in some kind of coup is wishful. Dictators always fill the highest ranks with lackeys and yes men. So no.

Maybe Putin wants to invade other countries or expects invasion. He will need the bulk of his forces and air power for the wars to come.

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## msxyz (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet CIPS operates at a tiny fraction of the level of SWIFT. Democratic nations, which make up the vast majority of international trade, are not going to flip from SWIFT to CIPS. Yes, CIPS may get a larger share of the pie but I just don’t see it getting a dominant slice.


It's a snowball effect. One you start to weaponize the SWIFT or the dollar, more and more actors will move away from it in fear of getting caught in situations like these. Other systems will also rise, tied to other currencies. India already announced that is shifting its trade with Russia from dollars to Rupees. Most likely, other BRICS nations will follow.

And I wouldn't discount large corporations keeping a foot in both boats for the time being or finding ways to circumvent sanctions. They have no moral compass and their only obligations are to their shareholders. Take Apple, for example: it has now 23% of the smartphone market in China. Do you think they will give up all that income in case China and the US relationship will deteriorate?

There is a common phrase in Mandarin that roughly translates: "A lot of help, with a little badmouth." The phrase means that even 'friends' will have to criticize your actions from time to time. But so long as those 'friends' are advancing your interests on the important things, you will overlook that.

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## Marcel (Feb 28, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Even this forum is united. So that must be a first.


That’s for sure.


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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

Thing about being rich is that you want to be richer. Being rich and then losing money is bad. So let's not do that.

Obviously Russia can survive sanctions. That is not a debate. But at what cost?

Would you be 30% poorer? Would you like that to happen? Could you survive that? Just because you can survive doesn't make it good.

In my view sanctions will hit very very hard plus now the West is going to place even further NATO forces against Russia.

So all Putin will show is a poorer Russia, stronger more aggressively NATO, and whatever disaster will be salvaged from Ukraine. So yeah. How will that be shown in a positive light?

And none of these events had to happen.

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## J_P_C (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Agree about the aircraft coming from Poland.
> 
> As far as "speeding up F-35 shipments," that will not happen for a number of reasons - first, the pace of production has been contracted and more than likely "the customer," be it the US or a foreign buyer will make progress payments based on that negotiated production rate. Second, vendor made parts and sub-assemblies will have to be accelerated, some of these items like landing gear are long lead time items so that will definitely impact any accelerated timeline. Third consideration, someone will have to come up with a contract modification and money to LMCO to make this happen, LMCO will not make any attempt to bring in additional resources on their own. The last major consideration (there are many more) is once you get everything in place you will need the people to support production, and keep in mind that you re going to have a learning curve once you get everything in place.


i thought about diverting some of USAF ordered machines -- just shifting order of deliveries - Poland already did payed two tranches for F35 - US did it couple of times for Israel why not for Poland? I know that LM is rapidly upgrading its factory in Mielec for F16 th assembly - sure they stated that initiially it will be just "front, middle and aft part of fuselage"  - PW factory in Rzeszow has been already tooled for F100-220 assembly - i bet that LM plan is transfer most of the F16 program to Poland just to let focus their US assembly lines on F35 program


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## msxyz (Feb 28, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Thing about being rich is that you want to be richer. Being rich and then losing money is bad. So let's not do that.
> 
> Obviously Russia can survive sanctions. That is not a debate. But at what cost?
> 
> ...


Most Russians tends to become Nihilists with age. I was told it's something that even predate the hardships suffered under the soviet rule. It's just a way of life. Newer generations exposed to internet and the western culture may be different but there's a large disconnect between the people living in Moscow or in other few cities on the European and those living in smaller towns the middle of nowhere in that vast land.

I was there the last year at the height of the pandemic. In all the large cities there were structures where you could get your vaccine shot by simply asking. The newsreels broadcasted interviews to doctors and testimonials literally begging people to get vaccinated. I asked a Russian person I know why so few Russians chose to be vaccinated and she simply shrugged off the question: "maybe it's not safe" she replied "maybe it is - but I'd rather take my chances getting Covid than using medicines. Surviving a disease makes you stronger".

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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

Problem is people will bet in a winning horse. 

Not a losing horse.

Ever watch Game of Thrones? A king who has to go round telling people he is the King is not true king.

We got Putin threatening nuclear war every half hour. Is that the sign of a sensible and reasonable fellow? 

I will be extremely annoyed if he launches nuclear war on Friday. Why not today? Means I don't have to work.

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And depending who that foreign prince, state, colony, district is, this has been ignored.
> 
> View attachment 659613


Title 18, US Code S 959 doesn't say anything about airmen.


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## msxyz (Feb 28, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Problem is people will bet in a winning horse.
> 
> Not a losing horse.
> 
> ...


In this case, once the dust settles, the winning horse will be China. Europe is acting the way it is, instead of taking a more cautious approach, to appease Washington. Russia is stuck between an uneasy alliance with China and a western world whose only goal has always been putting their hands on their immense reserves of raw materials (and they nearly succeeded when Yeltsin was president). Other players are remaining at the window or they support tepidly the western side for fear or lack of better alternative.

Look for a Kissinger interview he gave in 2016; among the various subjects touched there was the Ukraine situation and he pretty much predicted what would happen and why the west was doing a favour to China by continuing to push Russia in a corner. Kissinger is possibly the greatest strategist of the 20th century and he was instrumental in winning the cold war. I'd trust what he says over the word of any other politician today.

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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

Er....no.

People know one thing.

Do you think Poland is thinking or Finland is thinking?

They know they been invaded by Russia in the past and they don't want more.

Stop Russia in Kyiv before they get to Helsinki.

This has nothing to do with America or China. Stop changing the subject.

Japan only used Kamikaze tactics because they knew they were going to be invaded. Europe is only doing what they are doing because they are under genuine threat. They are scared. Not of China or America but because a country has invaded another country for no reason and now threatens other countries.

Stop being a Russian Bot and think for yourself.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 28, 2022)

Not sure if I should consider this a joke or a farce...

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Not sure if I should consider this a joke or a farce...
> 
> View attachment 659637


We see these burning tanks, but where are the Ukrainian tanks? Is this a Ukrainian tank? 

Ukraine makes a unique tank, the T-64 Ukraine modernises T-64BVK


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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

More Spring than winter
Maybe the Russians forgot that General Winter isn't going to show up in March.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This convoy will be target #1 tonight. The West likely has satellites positioned right on top to guide Ukrainian missile and ground strikes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why hasn’t this convoy been destroyed overnight?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Er....no.
> 
> People know one thing.
> 
> ...



Let’s keep the debate civil. No need to make personal attacks. Attack the message, not the poster.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

msxyz said:


> In this case, once the dust settles, the winning horse will be China.


China, and the world’s arms producers and dealers. Russia is going to end up as a Chinese vassal.

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## msxyz (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> China, and the world’s arms producers and dealers. Russia is going to end up as a Chinese vassal.


In 4 years Trump convinced Germany to raise the defence budget from 1.2% to 1.4%, in 4 days Putin convinced them to raise it to 2%.

Even if Putin is ousted from power, he has a bright future in the board of directors of some weapons manufacturer

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The latest twist…..according to US officials, Belarus is now considering deploying its own forces to support the Russian invasion.


That should speed up what could be called the Slavic Spring of 2022-2025. The Belarusians also want to be Europeans and won’t put up with being involved in a modern day Holodomor. Lukashenko’s going to end up like Ceaușescu.

As for other former Soviet republics, Georgia‘s president can see the future and chose the right side.









President of Georgia expresses solidarity with Ukraine


President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili expressed solidarity with Ukraine and welcomed the actions aimed at maintaining peace and strengthening security in Europe, Ukrinform reports, referring to the information portal Novosti-Georgia. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

US State Department is halting embassy operations in Belarus, at least temporarily.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> US State Department is halting embassy operations in Belarus, at least temporarily.


The Pentagon will take their place, if unofficially.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

More evidence that sanctions are starting to bite. 

The Russian stock exchange failed to open today and the Russian central bank has more than doubled its baseline interest rate. 

There are also reports of long queues outside many banks, with some expressing fear that there may be a run on several financial institutions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More evidence that sanctions are starting to bite.
> 
> The Russian stock exchange failed to open today and the Russian central bank has more than doubled its baseline interest rate.
> 
> There are also reports of long queues outside many banks, with some expressing fear that there may be a run on several financial institutions.



What I've read on the Hill is that the run has already started:



> Western nations ramped up the pressure with a freeze on Russia’s hard currency reserves, threatening to bring Russia’s economy to its knees. Russians withdrew savings and sought to shed rubles for dollars and euros, while Russian businesses scrambled to protect their finances.











Ukraine slows Russian advance under shadow of nuclear threat


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Outgunned but determined Ukrainian troops slowed Russia’s advance and held onto the capital and other key cities — at least for now. In the face of stiff resistance and devasta…




thehill.com






A
 Admiral Beez
, a friend of mine at another forum reports she heard that column was mauled overnight, but she didn't provide a link and I think she misread an article about a different recon column, as that's the only one I could find at her preferred source.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What I've read on the Hill is that the run has already started:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



They are showing pictures and video of a freshly destroyed Russian column. Still smoking. Not sure if it is that one though.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They are showing pictures and video of a freshly destroyed Russian column. Still smoking. Not sure if it is that one though.



This?









Ukraine hits back! Kyiv obliterates Russia convoys in drone strikes


UKRAINE has claimed to have destroyed Russian convoys in two separate drone strikes on Sunday as the Eastern European country continues to push back against the invasion.




www.express.co.uk


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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i thought about diverting some of USAF ordered machines -- just shifting order of deliveries -


Again, that would need approval and to do so would also change the supply chain because the internal equipment in the aircraft would be different - equipment, avionics, long lead time items would need to be rescheduled


J_P_C said:


> Poland already did payed two tranches for F35 - US did it couple of times for Israel why not for Poland?


First, Poland, like other customers, contracted for their aircraft but did not pay for the entire order. They will make progress payments based on their delivery schedule. Even the US does not hand the entire contract amount to the contractor, this is also done for the customer's budgetary planning and to make sure the contractor delivers on time and their product is acceptable. I do not believe the US cut into F-35A (USAF version) orders for Israel.


J_P_C said:


> I know that LM is rapidly upgrading its factory in Mielec for F16 th assembly - sure they stated that initiially it will be just "front, middle and aft part of fuselage"  - PW factory in Rzeszow has been already tooled for F100-220 assembly - i bet that LM plan is transfer most of the F16 program to Poland just to let focus their US assembly lines on F35 program


And when they make that transfer, do you think LMCO will just plop down tooling and parts and F-16s will start rolling down the assembly line? Tooling has to be manufactured, set up and inspected, you have to train people on how to manufacture the aircraft and as mentioned a learning curve before viable assets can be delivered in a timely manner. We're still looking at months if everything goes perfectly.

I worked on/ around several production lines (P-3, L1011, F-117A and the B-2) and it takes time to not only set things up properly, but to train people and to have a supply chain up and running to supply the production line. Even at the end of the P-3 production, we were still running into part shortages on long lead time items because of variations of the production flow, and that aircraft produced over 30 years!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


IDK, the pics show a much longer convoy.









Russian military convoy traveling toward Kyiv, satellite images show


Satellite images released Sunday show a large convoy of Russian ground forces in Ivankiv, Ukraine, according to Maxar Technologies.




www.militarytimes.com


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


>



The purges begin?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, the pics show a much longer convoy.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The convoy could have split.

In my combat experience, you don’t keep a convoy that large so close together once you reach a combat zone or near the lines.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

What does getting fired mean in Putin’s Russia?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What does getting fired mean in Putin’s Russia?



Maybe Putin can do the world a solid and purge himself.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Poland already did payed two tranches for F35 - US did it couple of times for Israel why not for Poland?


The only time I'm aware of production line aircraft being diverted to Israel was during the Yom Kippur War and they received F-4s. At that time the F-4 was being produced by the hundreds for several years, the production line was mature and McDonnel Douglas had a huge, highly trained work force. You also did not have special avionics, built in sensors or RAM composites to deal with so this made a transfer very easy.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Germany shakes off post-World War II timidity to back Ukraine defense against Russia


Shocked out of its postwar lethargy by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany was transforming itself by arming Ukraine with weaponry and boosting defense spending.




www.yahoo.com


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Germany shakes off post-World War II timidity to back Ukraine defense against Russia
> 
> 
> Shocked out of its postwar lethargy by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany was transforming itself by arming Ukraine with weaponry and boosting defense spending.
> ...


Meanwhile here in Canada our new Minister of Defence is focused on sexual misconduct and #metoo issues.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, the pics show a much longer convoy.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Right, but still wondering.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Maybe Putin can do the world a solid and purge himself.



I presume you don't mean colonic irrigation?

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 28, 2022)

Depends on what you use.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Depends on what you use.



Maybe a 155mm enema?

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Anything of interest going on near Taiwan?











Exclusive: Biden sends former top defense officials to Taiwan in show of support


The visit, led by one-time chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, comes as Taiwan has stepped up its alert level, wary of China taking advantage of a distracted West to move against it.




www.reuters.com





Looks like Biden is telling the Chinese, _"We know what you're thinking. But we're not that distracted by Ukraine, so don't even think about it."_

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Another political development...Switzerland has decided to adopt all the EU sanctions against Russia. This tidbit from the BBC:
_
After some soul-searching, neutral Switzerland will adopt all EU sanctions against Russia.

There will be no exceptions: five oligarchs have already been banned from entering Switzerland, the bank accounts of all 336 people on the EU's list, including Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, will be frozen with immediate effect.

Swiss banks are believed to hold billions of dollars in Russian funds.

The country's air space is closed to Russian aircraft, while Swiss airlines have cancelled their flights to Russia.

Make no mistake, this is a huge step for Switzerland, which has often agonised over what being neutral actually means.

Today Swiss President Ignazio Cassis made it clear: the attack on Ukraine was an unacceptable attack on freedom and democracy, "playing into the hands of aggression is not neutral", neither is standing by while the Geneva Conventions, which Switzerland is home to, are "trampled underfoot"._

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 28, 2022)

That sounds...
Uncomfortable.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another political development...Switzerland has decided to adopt all the EU sanctions against Russia. This tidbit from the BBC:


Goodness. Is there any western democracy not yet on board? How about Latin America? We know Brazil's leader is a fan of Putin.









Some Latin American nations call for Russian withdrawal from Ukraine


Colombia, Argentina and Chile on Thursday called for swift withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, as other Latin American countries rejected the use of force but stopped short of calling for a Russian exit.




www.reuters.com


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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another political development...Switzerland has decided to adopt all the EU sanctions against Russia. This tidbit from the BBC:
> 
> _After some soul-searching, neutral Switzerland will adopt all EU sanctions against Russia.
> 
> ...


Wow!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


>



The start of the purges?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The purges begin?


Didn't saw your post when postes mine

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Remember, Uncle Vlad wants to restore the glory of Soviet Russia.

Pretty sure purges are included in that fun-filled vision of "happy times"...

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> That sounds...
> Uncomfortable.



That's rather the point.


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, Uncle Vlad wants to restore the glory of Soviet Russia.
> 
> Pretty sure purges are included in that fun-filled vision of "happy times"...



I think I might invest in some secluded woodland in Siberia. Methinks there may be an emerging market for "tree counters".

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I think I might invest in some secluded woodland in Siberia. Methinks there may be an emerging market for "tree counters".


You might be able to get a good deal right now, too - considering the current financial situation, handing over a bundle of Benjamins would also earn you a medal.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You might be able to get a good deal right now, too - considering the current financial situation, handing over a bundle of Benjamins would also earn you a medal.



Maybe I could add "Hero of the New Soviet Union" to my forum persona. It's a catchy title...but I suspect it'll be short-lived.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's a catchy title...but I suspect it'll be short-lived.


And of course it's being a limited edition makes it all the more notable.

Something to make the rest of us extremely jealous, you know.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Vlad’s “mini-me” dictator is puffing his chest. Will ditch non-nuclear status.









Mass arrests as Belarus confirms ditching non-nuclear status in referendum vote


The vote sparked the biggest protests in months as thousands took to the streets in Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko has imposed a sweeping crackdown on dissent after a contested election challenged his grip on power in 2020. The vote to change the constitution, passed by 65%...




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Now Russian oligarchs are starting to make their voices heard...it's just a few but it's a start (again, from the BBC):

_More now on the news that the Russian oligarch and owner of Chelsea FC, Roman Abramovich, has been asked by the Ukrainian government to help find a "peaceful solution" to the war in Ukraine.

Abramovich's move is a significant intervention from a member of Russia's elite. We have been keeping an eye on other oligarchs and what they have to say.

The Financial Times revealed on Sunday that Mikhail Fridman, the founder of one of Russia's largest private financial institutions, Alpha Bank, wrote to London-based staff of his private equity company LetterOne that "war can never be the answer".

Fridman, who is worth an estimated $11.7bn (£8.7bn), was born in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv and said: "I'm deeply attached to Ukrainian and Russian peoples and see the current conflict as a tragedy for them both."

Meanwhile, Oleg Deripaska, who runs the aluminium giant Rusal, took to social media to call for negotiations.

Deripaska, who has amassed a fortune of around $4bn (£2.9bn) and was once described as "Putin's favourite industrialist", wrote on Twitter that "peace is the priority".

And Oleg Tinkov, a banker estimated to be worth around $3bn (£2.2bn), took the most emphatic stance when posted a photo of his family to Instagram with the caption "we are against this war", adding that "innocent people are dying every day, this is unthinkable and unacceptable".

Forbes estimated on Thursday that 116 billionaires had already lost more than $126bn since 16 February, and Russia's richest man, Vladimir Potanin, personally lost $3bn in a single day's trading last week. Since then, __the economic picture has worsened._

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## Glider (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I think I might invest in some secluded woodland in Siberia. Methinks there may be an emerging market for "tree counters".


With the strength of the rouble, $50 should buy a decent sized spread

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

The UK has announced a complete asset freeze on 3 more Russian banks, including the "national development bank". The UK has also instructed ports to refuse access to any Russian-flagged, Russian-registered, Russian-owned or Russian-controlled ships, ahead of new legislation coming into effect.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Also, it seems at least some of the Snake Island defenders may still be alive:
_
Ukrainian soldiers who were reportedly attacked on Zmiinyi (Snake) island are still alive, according to a statement posted on Facebook by Ukraine's naval services.

"We are very happy to learn that our brothers are alive and well," the statement posted on Monday said.

The sailors "rebuked twice the attacks of the Russian invaders," but could no longer continue to protect the island, the statement continued.

Connection with the island was completely cut off and attempts to reach the sailors futile, after Russian armed forces destroyed its infrastructure, the navy said._

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

Russian military logistics are clearly not up to this task.









Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks


Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine. Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has



warontherocks.com

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Apparently, it's Britain's fault that Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "unacceptable" remarks were made about possible "clashes" between Nato and Moscow over Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Speaking at a press briefing on Monday, Mr Peskov said: "Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia. "We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable. I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."

A review of recent statements by the British Foreign Minister reveal no substantive basis for Peskov's claims. The most aggressive statement was that the UK would support any British citizens who want to go to Ukraine and support the fighting...but that hardly warrants a response by Russian nuclear forces. 

I LOVE the last part of Peskov's statement. "I would not call the authors...by name....but it was the British foreign minister." You can't make this stuff up. It's comedy GOLD!!!

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Russia is notorious for being a bully while acting like a whiney bitch.

My favorite is the recent comment by their space program director saying the ISS never passes over Russia and might fall on (insert any country name here).

And all because it's the fault of the international community objecting to the Ukraine being invaded.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _After some soul-searching, neutral Switzerland will adopt all EU sanctions against Russia._


I am wondering if Switzerland was asked to hold off on the adopting the EU sanctions. In the face of every western revenue/banking regulator chasing them, presumably all the Russian oligarchs would have been looking for somewhere safer to stash their billions of ill-gotten money, including that laundered and held for Putin. Where better they might think than the stubbornly neutral Switzerland. So the money starts flowing in and a week later, the door slams shut with Switzerland freezing all the accounts.









Where do Russia’s wealthy keep their money? — The Bell — Eng


The richest men and women in Russia prefer to invest in bonds, have begun paying more taxes in Russia and are looking to extract assets from Cyprus and Latvia, according to a survey (Rus) published Thursday by Ernst & Young and international real estate broker Tranio. We gathered some of the...




thebell.io




_"Aside from Cyprus and Latvia, the other most in-demand destinations for Russian money are Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Malta." _

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russia is notorious for being a bully while acting like a whiney bitch.



Absolute classic...in fact, that's a trait we often see with bullies. They're only too keen to blame everyone else for their problems. 

You get my vote for "quote of the day".

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Apparently, it's Britain's fault that Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "unacceptable" remarks were made about possible "clashes" between Nato and Moscow over Russia's attack on Ukraine.
> 
> Speaking at a press briefing on Monday, Mr Peskov said: "Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia. "We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable. I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister."
> 
> ...


The russian chatter certainly would be hillarious if there was no invasion. Now is just a bad taste joke.

Obviously they are reading the script written for them but what makes me angry are the ones that swallow all this nosense in the free world, like those that made a demonstration last friday in Madrid against... NATO!

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## XBe02Drvr (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russian military logistics are clearly not up to this task.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Highly recommend warontherocks. More plausible realistic-sounding info than I've seen anywhere. Interviews with analysts who grew up in Eastern Europe, understand the context of Ukraine, and have studied Russia and its military for years.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

_In the latest salvo, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Nations, compared Putin to Adolf Hitler, appearing to suggest Putin kill himself just like Hitler did a year after western Allied armies landed in Normandy, France, and pushed Germans back to Berlin.

"If [Putin] wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in… 1945," Kyslytsya said Monday at a United Nations General Assembly meeting on Russia's invasion._









U.S. Fears Putin Will Throw Mother of All Hissy Fits if Kyiv Attack Fails


(Photo by ALEXEY NIKOLSKY/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)As Russian forces try to encircle Kyiv, the Biden administration is growing concerned that if Russia’s efforts to take Ukraine’s capital city aren’t as successful as Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes, the situation in Ukraine could...




www.yahoo.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russian military logistics are clearly not up to this task.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That explain a lot! Thanks for sharing

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## Dimlee (Feb 28, 2022)

So, negotiations between RF and Ukraine were completed...

Several minutes after the announcement, a new strike between Brovary and Kyiv. Allegedly, ballistic Iskanders.








Сильні вибухи в околицях Києва. Говорять про удар балістичної ракети. ВІДЕО


Близько 18:45 пролунав дуже сильний вибух, який було видно з Лівого берега Києва. Вибух стався через кілька хвилин після оголошення повітряної тривоги.




novynarnia.com





After that, Bela Tserkva was striken.


And shelling in Kharkiv was resumed.


And new air or MRL raid of Irpen.

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## Marcel (Feb 28, 2022)

Not much to laugh about today. Tomorrow could be even worse.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

This is your war Mr. Putin…







The child's mother, reacts as paramedics perform CPR on the girl who was fatally injured during shelling in Mariupol yesterday. She clutches her blood-soaked hand to her mouth while clutching the child's belongings with the other including shoes and a scarf









Horrific reality of Putin's Ukraine invasion in a single photo


WARNING GRAPHIC CONTENT: These upsetting pictures chart the fight to save a little girl wearing pink unicorn pyjamas who was fatally injured in a Mariupol apartment block yesterday.



www.dailymail.co.uk

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Hopefully Putin gets what he has coming to him.

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## vikingBerserker (Feb 28, 2022)

I cannot imagine being a parent and dealing with this crap.

Norway has agreed to supply arms to Ukraine, breaking a 50+ year trend of not supplying arms to a non NATO country.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Hopefully Putin gets what he has coming to him.


Few Russian Presidents leave voluntarily. If Putin resigns his successor, seeking both to eliminate a rival and to build rapprochement with the West will put him on the next flight to the Hague, to die in prison like Milošević.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> _In the latest salvo, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Nations, compared Putin to Adolf Hitler, appearing to suggest Putin kill himself just like Hitler did a year after western Allied armies landed in Normandy, France, and pushed Germans back to Berlin.
> 
> "If [Putin] wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use nuclear arsenal. He has to do what the guy in Berlin did in a bunker in… 1945," Kyslytsya said Monday at a United Nations General Assembly meeting on Russia's invasion._
> 
> ...


We hear these words but do the people who can prevent world annihilation hear these words. Will they allow the Rodina to become The Bunker?


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Will they allow the Rodina to become The Bunker?


Steiner's assault will bring it under control.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I cannot imagine being a parent and dealing with this crap.


The picture of that mother crying and the child in the ambulance dying choked me up. I had tears in my eyes. I just want to go and hold my children.

That is the problem with wars. It is the innocents who suffer for the greed, hate, and ambitions of their leaders.

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## Dimlee (Feb 28, 2022)

According to one member of Rada, Poland begins to release MiG-29s and air-to-air missiles to Ukrainian crews.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Feb 28, 2022)

Ukrainians are doing some drive-by molotov throwing.

Very risky. Don't know if it is genuine or a throw at a fuel starved and abandoned APC.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

I am concerned and deeply worried about tonight. It appears that 3 mile convoy has arrived at Kyiv. I think Putin will turn the heat up. The brave Ukranian fighters at some point may be overwhelmed. I think tonight could be a very bloody one. 

To all of you in Ukraine, please be safe.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Ukrainians are doing some drive-by molotov throwing.
> 
> Very risky. Don't know if it is genuine or a throw at a fuel starved and abandoned APC.




Even if it is broken down or out of fuel it can be repaired or fueled. It is still a genuine target.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I am concerned and deeply worried about tonight. It appears that 3 mile convoy has arrived at Kyiv. I think Putin will turn the heat up. The brave Ukranian fighters at some point may be overwhelmed. I think tonight could be a very bloody one.


I expect much of the Ukrainian Javelin force will be ready, likely with night vision equipment from NATO. The Russians seem to stop dead at night.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I expect much of the Ukrainian Javelin force will be ready, likely with night vision equipment from NATO. The Russians seem to stop dead at night.



Still at some point numbers are simply too much.

It is a good sign that the Russian forces appear to be very poorly trained and disciplined.

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## v2 (Feb 28, 2022)

Nearly two years old Stanisław Skalski at Kharkiv, now Ukraine, where his family moved from Kodyma, also Ukraine. A short while later family fled to Poland, following Bolshevik Revolution.
He would later became the first fighter ace of WWII, and the leading Polish fighter ace, ever. At 30 he was already a living legend of the Polish Air Force.
Post-war he returned to Soviet controlled Poland (Thanks to Yalta), was arrested and went through hell, but survived.
You can read the full story in this book, link below.
Right now, Kharkiv is heavily bombed by the people who glorify those, who tortured and murdered heroes like Skalski, thanks to whom Germany was defeated.
There are many children there, looking just like him on the photo. How many will never grow up to become worldwide recognised?
There are many questions which require quick and strong answers.








Skalski Against all Odds: The First Allied Ace of the Second World War (paperback edition)


A unique and detailed insight of a fighter pilot who became the first Allied ace The first time that the subject has been covered in English Superbly illustrated with striking and unpublished photographs Skalski Against all Odds: The First Allied Ace of the Second World War provides a gripping...




www.fonthill.media

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## Snautzer01 (Feb 28, 2022)

I miss a link


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

The International Criminal Court will open an investigation into alleged war crime conducted by Russia in Ukraine.

"There is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine," Karim AA Khan, the ICC prosecutor has said.

"It is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine".

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

The BBC included this link of Russian shelling in Kharkiv...perhaps this is what Russia considers "precision targeting"?



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d3803ec502b53cd4802af%26WATCH%3A%20Kharkiv%20and%20Chernihiv%20hit%20by%20heavy%20shelling%262022-02-28T21%3A02%3A10.066Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:269e8029-b4fa-4d24-af60-7fb6e42cbf6e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d3803ec502b53cd4802af&pinned_post_type=share

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The International Criminal Court will open an investigation into alleged war crime conducted by Russia in Ukraine.
> 
> "There is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine," Karim AA Khan, the ICC prosecutor has said.
> 
> "It is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine".



Enough said…


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## v2 (Feb 28, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Brakuje mi linku











Skalski Against all Odds: The First Allied Ace of the Second World War (paperback edition)


A unique and detailed insight of a fighter pilot who became the first Allied ace The first time that the subject has been covered in English Superbly illustrated with striking and unpublished photographs Skalski Against all Odds: The First Allied Ace of the Second World War provides a gripping...




www.fonthill.media

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## manta22 (Feb 28, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> So it has begun, the reassembly of the USSR, or maybe even the old Russian Empire.
> Hey Fulda, how's your gap?


We kept them out of the Fulda Gap when I was there in '61 to '63. We were armed with the first rocket artillery missile the US ever fielded- the Corporal IIB, a nuclear-armed liquid-fueled missile that was transported by huge LeTourneau vehicles. Our unit operated out of a kaserne in Babenhausen, Germany but we spent lots of time in the field training.

I think the best outcome to this current Russian-Ukraine war is for the senior Russian leadership to take out Putin by force.

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## Builder 2010 (Feb 28, 2022)

Whew! A lot of thread to read. The Russians seem to be running out of fuel… that happened to another despots army I recall and in Russia too. Russian equipment has lousy fuel economy and the fact that this operation is taking so much longer fuel is a big deal. A tank without fuel is scrap metal. Depending on their engineering, they may or may not need the prime mover on line to generate power for the rest of the systems. Those convoys are sitting ducks and much of that convoy would be necessary to resupply the heavy equipment. Many battles are lost due to destruction of simple trucks. The US Army and Air Force realized you didn't have to kill all the tigers and panthers with the p47s and Typhoons, you just needed to blow up the fuel trucks. The last thing Putin wanted was an urban war with a civilian population armed to the teeth and mad as hell. Even grandmothers are learning to shoot an AK47. This can be very disturbing to a conscript army.


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## J_P_C (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Again, that would need approval and to do so would also change the supply chain because the internal equipment in the aircraft would be different - equipment, avionics, long lead time items would need to be rescheduled
> 
> First, Poland, like other customers, contracted for their aircraft but did not pay for the entire order. They will make progress payments based on their delivery schedule. Even the US does not hand the entire contract amount to the contractor, this is also done for the customer's budgetary planning and to make sure the contractor delivers on time and their product is acceptable. I do not believe the US cut into F-35A (USAF version) orders for Israel.
> 
> ...


Mielec is aircraft factory with 80 years of tradition - this is not workshop building tractors and blessed with all knowledge coming out from LOCKMART. They have build first UH60 airframe in less than 6 months after Sikorski took possession of the factory. I think first F-16 fuselage assembly delivery to Mobile assembly line is planned before end of this year and Lockheed decided to transfer this work to Poland not because they do like bigos and polish beer but because US supply chain caused 2 years delay with delivery of new F16 to the customers. 
 and yes i'm impressed with your experience - mine (except 12 years in aircraft maintenance) is limited just to A380, A350, A320NEO, B747-8, B787, A321P2F, and couple others programs and i'm still learning how to work effectively in my profession. By the way i've heard about all structural problems of P3 i would say this airplane is "oversustained" - decision related to replacement should be hammered when P-7 proposal have been presented to USN more than 40 years ago, not pushing for P-8 which is, in my personal opinion, inferior MPA airplane design vs proposed one. Also i'm aware of all bureaucracy in aviation/defense industry - but as any artificially created obstacle it may be bypassed - if political will exist. Here in Poland especially in military circles we have impression of being treated as third grade allay - first grade is Israel (in many cases uncle Sam is paying for their hardware out of yours - us taxpayer's pocket), 1.5 is UK, tier 2 are "old" NATO members, and than tier 3 - ex WP tail. Considering revealed cost/delivery schedules i would say rule here is - sell with biggest possible margin and delay delivery as much as you possibly will be able to negotiate. It is understandable trade practice - but all this hardware is sold through FMS mechanism as a government to government deal - shouldn't be national/international security more important factor than earning couple $$? Could be this kind of policy leads us directly to the Ukraine like situation?

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## Greg Boeser (Feb 28, 2022)

That's the problem with the Military-Industrial Complex. It's first purpose is to insure profitability.
PS: You get a like just for mentioning bigos and Polish beer.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Mielec is aircraft factory with 80 years of tradition - this is not workshop building tractors and blessed with all knowledge coming out from LOCKMART. They have build first UH60 airframe in less than 6 months after Sikorski took possession of the factory. I think first F-16 fuselage assembly delivery to Mobile assembly line is planned before end of this year and Lockheed decided to transfer this work to Poland not because they do like bigos and polish beer but because US supply chain caused 2 years delay with delivery of new F16 to the customers.
> and yes i'm impressed with your experience - mine (except 12 years in aircraft maintenance) is limited just to A380, A350, A320NEO, B747-8, B787, A321P2F, and couple others programs and i'm still learning how to work effectively in my profession. By the way i've heard about all structural problems of P3 i would say this airplane is "oversustained" - decision related to replacement should be hammered when P-7 proposal have been presented to USN more than 40 years ago, not pushing for P-8 which is, in my personal opinion, inferior MPA airplane design vs proposed one. Also i'm aware of all bureaucracy in aviation/defense industry - but as any artificially created obstacle it may be bypassed - if political will exist. Here in Poland especially in military circles we have impression of being treated as third grade allay - first grade is Israel (in many cases uncle Sam is paying for their hardware out of yours - us taxpayer's pocket), 1.5 is UK, tier 2 are "old" NATO members, and than tier 3 - ex WP tail. Considering revealed cost/delivery schedules i would say rule here is - sell with biggest possible margin and delay delivery as much as you possibly will be able to negotiate. It is understandable trade practice - but all this hardware is sold through FMS mechanism as a government to government deal - shouldn't be national/international security more important factor than earning couple $$? Could be this kind of policy leads us directly to the Ukraine like situation?



What’s wrong with the P-8 that makes it inferior? It’s a great platform and its capabilities are excellent.


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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Mielec is aircraft factory with 80 years of tradition - this is not workshop building tractors and blessed with all knowledge coming out from LOCKMART. They have build first UH60 airframe in less than 6 months after Sikorski took possession of the factory. I think first F-16 fuselage assembly delivery to Mobile assembly line is planned before end of this year and Lockheed decided to transfer this work to Poland not because they do like bigos and polish beer but because *US supply chain caused 2 years delay with delivery of new F16 to the customers.*


I'm well aware of Mielec (great company) but you proved my point - it took six months to get set up to *build* the first UH60 airframe. How much time did it take to get everything set up before the first rivet was bucked?

And earlier I did mention the supply chain - the F-16 WAS NOT set up in a war time production mode. There was a steady pace on what was required, customers and acquisition of certain components, LMCO will slow down to line to maintain key personnel and to have the supply chain "catch up" when they can. Some items like engines, avionics and even the landing gear are "Government Furnished Equipment" and the US government supplies those items. For foreign customers, they sometimes purchase those items and their orders will take a back seat to US "GFE" so you see how this can get complicated.



J_P_C said:


> and yes i'm impressed with your experience - mine (except 12 years in aircraft maintenance) is limited just to A380, A350, A320NEO, B747-8, B787, A321P2F, and couple others programs and i'm still learning how to work effectively in my profession. By the way i've heard about all structural problems of P3 i would say this airplane is "oversustained" - decision related to replacement should be hammered when P-7 proposal have been presented to USN more than 40 years ago, not pushing for P-8 which is, in my personal opinion, inferior MPA airplane design vs proposed one. Also i'm aware of all bureaucracy in aviation/defense industry - but as any artificially created obstacle it may be bypassed - if political will exist.


Thank you - and I see you've been around as well.  I worked extensively on the P-3, first at the factory and later in the USNR. Towards the end of my career with Lockheed I was actually on the P-7 program, the acronym for the P-7 program was "LRAACA," we used to joke that it meant "falling stone" in Spanish! The program was very mis-managed and it was no surprise when it got cancelled. 


J_P_C said:


> Here in Poland especially in military circles we have impression of being treated as third grade allay - first grade is Israel (in many cases uncle Sam is paying for their hardware out of yours - us taxpayer's pocket), 1.5 is UK, tier 2 are "old" NATO members, and than tier 3 - ex WP tail. Considering revealed cost/delivery schedules i would say rule here is - sell with biggest possible margin and delay delivery as much as you possibly will be able to negotiate. It is understandable trade practice - but all this hardware is sold through FMS mechanism as a government to government deal - shouldn't be national/international security more important factor than earning couple $$? Could be this kind of policy leads us directly to the Ukraine like situation?


I can see your point about being a third grade ally. When I was on the Australian P-3 program, some of their folks felt the same way. Israel will always seem like the #1 procurer because of their unique situation. I agree about national security with regards to all of our allies but in the bigger picture money will dictate priorities unless the highest levels of the US government steps in and tells the contractor which foreign customer to prioritize. So far the only country I'm aware of is Israel.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> That's the problem with the Military-Industrial Complex. It's first purpose is to insure profitability.
> PS: You get a like just for mentioning bigos and Polish beer.


"Military-Industrial Complex" An obsolete term - 50 years ago yes, but look how many large defense contractors are left. I've worked half of my career as a government contractor and I can tell you the "tail doesn't wag the dog." Read "Skunk Works" by Ben Rich and you'll get a feel on how things really work 


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What’s wrong with the P-8 that makes it inferior? It’s a great platform and its capabilities are excellent.


My biggest beef with the P-8 is it uses a sensor instead of the traditional Magnetic Anomaly Detection (MAD) system which Boeing says is better, I've heard the opposite. It has a surface search radar that has had issues and I believe it's because it operates at higher altitudes than the P-3. I think the P-8 is a good surveillance aircraft, but as far as hunting and killing subs, you need an aircraft that can loiter for long periods of time at lower altitudes and maintain a modern version of the "Julie-Jezebel" system along with a strong surface search radar. The P-8 does have an impressive armament package.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "Military-Industrial Complex" An obsolete term - 50 years ago yes, but look how many large defense contractors are left. I've worked half of my career as a government contractor and I can tell you the "tail doesn't wag the dog." Read "Skunk Works" by Ben Rich and you'll get a feel on how things really work
> 
> My biggest beef with the P-8 is it uses a sensor instead of the traditional Magnetic Anomaly Detection (MAD) system which Boeing says is better, I've heard the opposite. It has a surface search radar that has had issues and I believe it's because it operates at higher altitudes than the P-3. I think the P-8 is a good surveillance aircraft, but as far as hunting and killing subs, you need an aircraft that can loiter for long periods of time at lower altitudes and maintain a modern version of the "Julie-Jezebel" system along with a strong surface search radar. The P-8 does have an impressive armament package.



I think the P-8 has usual teething problems, but its a solid proven platform and extremely capable. The P-8 does operate a lower altitudes as well. 

I know, I know, I’m biased..

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses


Ukrainian pilots are headed to Poland after other countries pledged to donate used planes.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, Uncle Vlad wants to restore the glory of Soviet Russia.
> 
> Pretty sure purges are included in that fun-filled vision of "happy times"...



It's no coincidence that he's led the rehabilitation of Stalin, nor that he's acting like Stalin now.


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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
> 
> 
> Ukrainian pilots are headed to Poland after other countries pledged to donate used planes.
> ...


This is wonderful news! It seems then the Polish aircraft were similar enough to used by Ukraine with minimal training, if any was needed at all!

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

I don't see Bulgaria giving up their MiG-29s, as these are their only front line fighters until they receive F-16s.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Here's some Ukraine Drone action.

They strike on the Russian railroad fuel tankers was excellent!









Ukrainian Drone Hit Fuel Train Deep Behind Russian Lines


Video shows a compilation of Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone strikes against Russian military targets, and among the clips is a strike against a fuel train deep behind Russian lines.




funker530.com

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

omg guys, this is pure gold!!

A Russian Navy ship is requesting fuel from a Georgian Navy refueler and the Georgians aren't giving it up!

* there is some cuss words, so beware *

** By the way, at the end of the video, the First Officer's comments didn't get captioned. **
What he said, was:
Glory to the heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!









Georgian Refueling Ship Tells Russian Ship Running on Empty to Paddle Home


The crew of a Georgian refueling ship has recently released footage of them telling a Russian transport ship that they can paddle themselves home if they're out of fuel.




funker530.com

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## The Basket (Feb 28, 2022)

I haves questions.

So the only Fulcrums are Slovak, Polish and Bulgarian. Not Serb obviously.

The Poles can give up their Fulcrums but Slovakia and Bulgaria don't have any other fighter. Plus Bulgaria has Frogfoots but from what I've read Bulgaria are not playing.

So the question is what has happened to the Ukrainian fighters? Is any operational? Does Ukraine have the pilots? Where are these new Fulcrums going and is it worth it against the latest Flankers? I have no idea.

If the Slovaks give up their fighters I would have to assume they are getting back something. Maybe NATO fighters based there until F-16 became operational.


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's some Ukraine Drone action.
> 
> They strike on the Russian railroad fuel tankers was excellent!
> 
> ...



That's a neat "greatest hits" compilation.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Hey...to lighten the mood a little, I just realized that I have the same number of "Liked" reactions as posts on the forum. 

Does that make me an "influencer"? 

Anybody want to see what I had for breakfast? 

Or I could don a mankini and video myself doing yoga. Yoga seems to works for the Rybka twins so why not me?

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Or I could don a mankini and video myself doing yoga. Yoga seems to works for the Rybka twins so why not me?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's some Ukraine Drone action.
> 
> They strike on the Russian railroad fuel tankers was excellent!
> 
> ...



Perfectly in accord with the linked article earlier about targeting Russian logistics given their limitations.


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Good advertising for Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. Wonder if they'll see an increase in orders?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

More on the impact to Russia's economy:









Unprecedented Western sanctions strangling Russian economy


Financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Western allies are strangling the Russian economy.As Russian President Vladimir Putin wages war against Ukraine, his country’s economy has begun to colla…




thehill.com













Biden: Public shouldn’t worry about nuclear war with Russia


President Biden said Monday he does not believe Americans have reason to be concerned about nuclear war amid tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.Biden responded to the question with a…




thehill.com













Shell joins BP in divesting from Russia


Shell will end all joint ventures with Russian majority state-owned oil company Gazprom in response to the invasion of Ukraine, the oil company announced Monday.As part of the divestiture, Shell wi…




thehill.com

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> This is wonderful news! It seems then the Polish aircraft were similar enough to used by Ukraine with minimal training, if any was needed at all!


Nice. How does IFF work?


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. How does IFF work?



First, you ensure the switch isn't in the OFF position.

Sorry...couldn't resist.

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## FLYBOYJ (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. How does IFF work?


My guess is these aircraft have already integrated a NATO IFF system or they would have one that is compatible with one already being operated by the UAF. J P C would know.


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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I don't see Bulgaria giving up their MiG-29s, as these are their only front line fighters until they receive F-16s.


Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004. No way the Russians strike there. Might as well bomb Manhattan.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004. No way the Russians strike there. Might as well bomb Manhattan.



Tu-160s could pull it off, I bet, but it would be a pinprick without nukes. And I bet they're sitting on nuke alert per Putin's recent order.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Slovakia is surrounded by NATO nations that will provide mutual aid and protection, Bulgaria is in a key front location and while they welcome NATO assistance, they are adamant about maintaining their own security foremost.

Even if the U.S. bumped up the F-16 delivery timetable, there is still training and work up time.

The Bulgarian Air Force, in their MiG-29s, have an advantage of familiarity, so best let them remain there, where they can do the most good.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

I hope to wake up tomorrow and find Kyiv still standing, and the Russian horde was again repelled. I’m very concerned though. That convoy should have been hit before reaching the city.

My thoughts are with everyone there. The world stands with you!

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Tu-160s could pull it off, I bet, but it would be a pinprick without nukes. And I bet they're sitting on nuke alert per Putin's recent order.


For sure it can be done, but it won’t be. Once Putin hits a NATO member we’re all in.

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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Tu-160s could pull it off, I bet, but it would be a pinprick without nukes. And I bet they're sitting on nuke alert per Putin's recent order.


They've got a Ju390 on hot pad status.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> For sure it can be done, but it won’t be. Once Putin hits a NATO member we’re all in.



And likely all out too…

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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

So grab your credit cards and PARTEE' now!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

I so wish there was a way to send in several squadrons of A-10s too turn that column of Russian vehicles into a column of smoldering twisted metal.

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## special ed (Feb 28, 2022)

At least drones from Poland. Who's to know?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Something had to prevent them from at hitting that convoy in an attempt to prevent it from reaching the city. That or there is something planned that I just can’t figure out.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> For sure it can be done, but it won’t be. Once Putin hits a NATO member we’re all in.



Right, just addressing the point about capability.

As far as willingness goes, bullies don't want a fight; bullies want an easy victory. A stern and solid face without panic or exotic concerns is what's called-for.

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## Admiral Beez (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Something had to prevent them from at hitting that convoy in an attempt to prevent it from reaching the city. That or there is something planned that I just can’t figure out.


Or there is no single big convoy as described.


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## Denniss (Feb 28, 2022)

I hope they have some forces hiding on both sides of the road, waiting for a coordinated attack. First drone attacks for confusion amongst russians then RPG attacks from the sides.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

I suspect they may be "allowing" the convoy to pass before attacking with a plan of concerted attack that breaks it into manageable "pieces".

It is an old tactic and if I were a Russian in that convoy, I'd be nervous AF...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Something had to prevent them from at hitting that convoy in an attempt to prevent it from reaching the city. That or there is something planned that I just can’t figure out.



Ukrainian capabilities may have been degraded enough to prevent what we all see as possible (stopper up the leading vehicles, plug the rear vehicles, and have a shooting gallery). Night ops are tough, especially if your troops aren't fully-trained, or is ammo is low.

Cities are, however, troop-sponges. The Russians may yet regret actually reaching Kyiv.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I so wish there was a way to send in several squadrons of A-10s too turn that column of Russian vehicles into a column of smoldering twisted metal.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

In case anyone's interested in a long read...here's the summary of today's opening day of the General Assembly emergency session. The session reconvenes tomorrow. Interestingly, Brazil and China both struck rather conciliatory tones in their comments today. 






United Nations Stands with People of Ukraine, Secretary-General Tells General Assembly, Stressing ‘Enough Is Enough’, Fighting Must Stop, as Emergency Session Gets Under Way | UN Press







www.un.org

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## wlewisiii (Feb 28, 2022)

That's the good news for now. It remains to be seen what the dawn brings.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Or there is no single big convoy as described.


 Satellite images say otherwise.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suspect they may be "allowing" the convoy to pass before attacking with a plan of concerted attack that breaks it into manageable "pieces".
> 
> It is an old tactic and if I were a Russian in that convoy, I'd be nervous AF...



That’s what I’m thinking/hoping.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> View attachment 659742



Thats exactly what inspired post.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Thats exactly what inspired post.



I was never so proud of my beloved Air Force. We did not forget Falaise, we only made it hurt worse the next go-round.

It's a shame the Ukrainians couldn't turn the trick, but from what I've read that convoy has reached Kyiv. Hopefully the city will help sponge up Russian troops. Urban fighting is the toughest fighting, I think.


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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Satellite images say otherwise.


The convoy is stretched out roughly 40 miles currently.

That is one big-ass target, to be honest - I simply cannot beleive Russian strategists are that stupid.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The convoy is stretched out roughly 40 miles currently.
> 
> That is one big-ass target, to be honest - I simply cannot beleive Russian strategists are that stupid.



Wasn't their jump-off point 40 miles north already?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The convoy is stretched out roughly 40 miles currently.
> 
> That is one big-ass target, to be honest - I simply cannot beleive Russian strategists are that stupid.



I said the same thing. It is an A-10 pilots dream. The vehicles are so close to one another too. Very poor discipline.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Feb 28, 2022)

Republicans introduce joint resolution demanding Russia lose permanent seat on UN Security Council


Several high-profile Republicans are introducing a joint resolution calling on President Biden to pressure the United Nations to strip Russia of its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which gives Moscow a veto over the council's resolutions.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Wasn't their jump-off point 40 miles north already?


According to current sat. images, the convoy is stretched out over 40 miles, closely packed and mixed vehicles.

I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this convoy *almost* seems like bait to NATO interdiction.

As I mentioned before, I cannot beleive their strategists are this stupid.

For a look at the convoy, go here:








Satellite images show much longer convoy of Russian military vehicles


A Russian military convoy is getting closer to Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv, according to new satellite images released Monday by Maxar Technologies.




www.militarytimes.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Republicans introduce joint resolution demanding Russia lose permanent seat on UN Security Council
> 
> 
> Several high-profile Republicans are introducing a joint resolution calling on President Biden to pressure the United Nations to strip Russia of its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which gives Moscow a veto over the council's resolutions.
> ...





GrauGeist said:


> According to current sat. images, the convoy is stretched out over 40 miles, closely packed and mixed vehicles.
> 
> I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this convoy *almost* seems like bait to NATO interdiction.
> 
> ...



If they're packed that close for 40 miles, you can light 'em up with RPGs from off-road. That's some shoddy planning, agreed.

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## wlewisiii (Feb 28, 2022)

The convoy gets to Kyiv and the driver of the lead vehicle gets out.

"Anyone here? We'd like to defect."

(yeah, I know but it seemed funny  )

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## at6 (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Meanwhile here in Canada our new Minister of Defence is focused on sexual misconduct and #metoo issues.


Is he now the Minister of Self Defense?

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## at6 (Feb 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. Is there any western democracy not yet on board? How about Latin America? We know Brazil's leader is a fan of Putin.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Does that mean Putin will hide like Mengele?


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## at6 (Feb 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> With the strength of the rouble, $50 should buy a decent sized spread


That means that I might buy half of Russia for $250.00?


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## at6 (Feb 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Hopefully Putin gets what he has coming to him.


A Vodka and Arsenic enema.

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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

at6 said:


> A Vodka and Arsenic enema.



Delivered by this puppy:









New firefighting water cannon said to produce up to 81000 liters/minute


It requires larges bodies of water but it can allegedly reach 3 kilometers (1,7 miles) from the water source.




www.ctif.org





22,000 gals per minute. That'd bring a tear to his eys.

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## GrauGeist (Feb 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Delivered by this puppy:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We actually need something like that here in NorCal for fire season...


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## J_P_C (Feb 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "Military-Industrial Complex" An obsolete term - 50 years ago yes, but look how many large defense contractors are left. I've worked half of my career as a government contractor and I can tell you the "tail doesn't wag the dog." Read "Skunk Works" by Ben Rich and you'll get a feel on how things really work
> 
> My biggest beef with the P-8 is it uses a sensor instead of the traditional Magnetic Anomaly Detection (MAD) system which Boeing says is better, I've heard the opposite. It has a surface search radar that has had issues and I believe it's because it operates at higher altitudes than the P-3. I think the P-8 is a good surveillance aircraft, but as far as hunting and killing subs, you need an aircraft that can loiter for long periods of time at lower altitudes and maintain a modern version of the "Julie-Jezebel" system along with a strong surface search radar. The P-8 does have an impressive armament package.


spot on about P8 - is simply short legged on low altitude because of the propulsion - and i think whole BAMS concept is ... far from perfection i would say. Another weak spot is bomb bay arrrangement - biga airplane without capability to carry big load of weapon. From other hand it is jet - pilots like it ...


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## buffnut453 (Feb 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> We actually need something like that here in NorCal for fire season...



But shooting water, not vodka...right?

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## SaparotRob (Feb 28, 2022)

at6 said:


> That means that I might buy half of Russia for $250.00?


Alaska is taken.

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> My guess is these aircraft have already integrated a NATO IFF system or they would have one that is compatible with one already being operated by the UAF. J P C would know.


yes our -29th are equipped in NATO compatible IFF (locally produced on Thales licence) and communication gear working in Have Quick mode as well - finally E3 crewas will have better view on situation in the air

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

looks like US will provide us with used F16 as a replacement for MiGs transferred to Ukrainian pilots - it sounds like very reasonable move of US administration - let me express my personal gratitude to all US taxpayers! By the way our governmet let Ukrainian AF to use our airfields as operational bases. undoubtfully it is significant escalation...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> As I mentioned before, I cannot beleive their strategists are this stupid.


Don't underestimate the foolness which people are capable.

If Putin is surrounded by like minded people and nobody is thinking outside their box, nobody will ask what if questions:

-What if the ukrainians didn't surrender at the first shoot?
-What if the West got united?
-What if the sanctions go ahead?

Thinking different from uncle Vlad is no recipe for a long and good life in Rusia today.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Don't underestimate the foolness which people are capable.
> 
> If Putin is surrounded by like minded people and nobody is thinking outside their box, nobody will ask what if questions:
> 
> ...


I guess he really did out smart the West. We never thought he could do it so wrong.

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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Ukrainians are doing some drive-by molotov throwing.
> 
> Very risky. Don't know if it is genuine or a throw at a fuel starved and abandoned APC.



Extremely risky, of course. But people are very angry and produce those cocktails in thousands. Polystyrene foam is in deficit.
By the way, I said recently "Molotov's cocktail" to one "producer", who is a local coffee shop owner, and was corrected. "F**k Molotov", she said. "This is our Bandera-Smoothie".

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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Good morning, Kharkiv.








Унаслідок обстрілу Харкова загинули щонайменше 10 людей, третина будівлі ОДА обвалилася (оновлено) (фото)


Росія вдарила по центру міста.




lb.ua





Some years ago, I studied some episodes of the WWII history of Kharkiv. I didn't find any evidence of bombing of this square either by Germans or by Soviets.

Edit: Two missiles. The second one arrived 5-6 min later when rescue service and firefighters were on the square helping survivors.


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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

one of my US friends use to said about war propaganda - dehuminizing of your enemy is key for success in this field - i would say Ukrainians are good in this game - from other hand considering typical russian warfare style - it is process with minimal extra effort.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> According to current sat. images, the convoy is stretched out over 40 miles, closely packed and mixed vehicles.
> 
> I'm not a conspiracy nut, but this convoy *almost* seems like bait to NATO interdiction.
> 
> ...


Did you read the linked article several pages back, _Feeding the Bear_? Apparently Russian units are organized kind of light on logistics elements in order to pack more firepower in a given sized unit. This limits the range they can operate without pauses to replenish. This huge and ungainly mixed column probably has extra logistics support "borrowed" from other units, and not organic to the combat units. In a largely conscript army made up of troops with limited experience and not encouraged to innovate much, coordinating with "foreign" supply troops from other units with other traditions and other SOPs could easily go SNAFU or even FUBAR pretty quick.
Mighty tempting target. Javelin, anyone?

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## Stosser (Mar 1, 2022)

Sorry I interveen and if repeating anything on those 34 pages. I didn't had the time to read it all. 
I'm from Romania. Our people offered al the support we could for ukrainian refugees and our military have allready send 7 campaign hospitals to the borders, together with military medics, to asist wounded. 
There had been captured some strange prisoniers. Very young and not knowing what they are into. Some asked gas at the police station. Others telled their captors that they were officially at exercises, stationed in the night near the border and at first light received the order to move ahead. Then when shot at troop comanders told them that this is a peace maintainig war mission against turbulent, neonazis elements. Due to the fact that in most of Ukraine, russian is common language, only with some dialect differences it was hard for them to understand what they are facing. Also the russian people in Russia are strongly disinformed. Also russian head of army are bound by their oath and so reluctant to overthrow the president. 
So, the situation is very complicated localy, as history was allways. 
Lets hope the reason wi prevale and innocent souls could return home in peace.

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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Stosser said:


> I'm from Romania. Our people offered al the support we could for ukrainian refugees and our military have allready send 7 campaign hospitals to the borders, together with military medics, to asist wounded.


Mulțumesc !

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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Over Kyiv reservoir. Splash.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Over Kyiv reservoir. Splash.



There is an airborne assault going on?


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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

List of aircraft to be received from NATO. The list is not complete.

Bulgaria MiG-29 - 16, Su-25 - 14
Благодаря !
Poland MiG-29 - 28
Dzięki !
Slovakia MiG-29 - 12
Vďaka !
...
Hungary... prohibits transit of military cargoes to Ukraine.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> List of aircraft to be received from NATO. The list is not complete.
> 
> Bulgaria MiG-29 - 16, Su-25 - 14
> Благодаря !
> ...



I don't think this is true it's more of that available on hand for Bulgaria and Slovacchia and are all the combat jet they have

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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Vincenzo said:


> I don't think this is true it's more of that available on hand for Bulgaria and Slovacchia and are all the combat jet they have


Numbers are from Ukraine's Air Force Command.


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 1, 2022)

Please stop doing this.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Numbers are from Ukraine's Air Force Command.


I've read the source, they can lie


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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Over Kyiv reservoir. Splash.



Probably, the same place and time.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 1, 2022)

If they are already having logistic issues, the deeper the convoy goes in the further away they are from their supply lines. Finland targeted the Soviet mobile kitchens, I'd think targeting the fuel trucks would work well.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 1, 2022)

I'm done working my overnight shift at the hotel. After I get up from a few hours of rest, today seems like a good day to go to the local range and practice with my Zastava AK & my Canik (Turkish) CZ75 clone and think good thoughts about Ukraine while making lots of .3" holes

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Numbers are from Ukraine's Air Force Command.


28 is the number confirmed by polish officials - it means all in flyable condition we have

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Probably, the same place and time.



This are Pioruns - works as designed

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

A portion of the 40-mile convoy:






The Ukrainians must not be contesting the air much any more, no way could the Russians get away with this otherwise.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I said the same thing. It is an A-10 pilots dream. The vehicles are so close to one another too. Very poor discipline.


It's also a dream target for the PSU's Sukhoi Su-25. They had seventeen prewar, and I believe received more from former Warsaw Pact nations last week. IDK how many are left.






I'm surprised the PSU has/had no attack helicopters in its current (prewar) fleet. Considering our expectation that Ukraine fight a proxy war against Russian on our behalf, the West really let down Ukraine on providing the necessary kit. As for that 40 mile long convoy, I have to think that many of the thousand or more MANPATs the Ukrainians have now received are in-place along that route.

Once they enter Kiyv I expect the Ukrainians will fight from house to house. I wonder if some of the sharper eyed members of the Ukrainian shooting federation will become snipers. Is there a modern day Lyudmila Pavlichenko among them?






These moms are my heros! _"We will stay here together, whatever. This is our home. We will fight for it."_





_"Zhaglo, a marketing researcher, spent the equivalent of $1,300 on the Zbroyar Z-15 carbine, which she learned how to use by attending a two-week sniper's course."_









Ukrainian mom buys powerful hunting rifle, vows to ‘fight for Kiev’


A Ukrainian mother-of-three has armed herself with a powerful hunting rifle, vowing to “fight for Kiev” amid fears of a Russian invasion.




nypost.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

As expected, the British Government has passed legislation today banning ships with "any Russian connection" from entering UK ports.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> As expected, the British Government has passed legislation today banning ships with "any Russian connection" from entering UK ports.


ok, I take it back


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Britain needs to cancel all visitor, student and business Visas from every Russian citizen and expel them, and seize, if only temporarily all Russian-owned assets in the UK, including Chelsey FC. Round up the Russians, from the owners of football clubs to university student, to the hotel cleaning lady and send them packing. Residency for non-citizens is a privilege, not a right. Give them one week to pack and quit the country.



Why should Britain alone do that? How about Canada, the US, the EU? There are Russians in pretty much every country in the world.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

I'm not big on punishing individuals based solely on their nationality rather than their behavior. It's one thing to sanction businesses and the individuals who aid and abet this series of war crimes, but the concept of collective guilt -- in this case based solely on nationality -- has some ugly echoes from history.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not big on punishing individuals based solely on their nationality rather than their behavior. It's one thing to sanction businesses and the individuals who aid and abet this series of war crimes, but the concept of collective guilt -- in this case based solely on nationality -- has some ugly echoes from history.



In addition, it's probably impossible to implement...how do you get these people back to Russia when all flights between Russia and the west have been cancelled? How much would it cost to track down people who go into hiding? Who pays for the flights and the roundup operation? The taxpayers? 

Finally, such evictions would do NOTHING to influence Putin. He doesn't care about people.

In short, evictions won't have any desired impact on Russian political and financial leaders. I also agree that it paints all Russians as enemies when that's simply not the case...and that's a dangerous precedent. As Sting said, Russians love their children too:

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> If they are already having logistic issues, the deeper the convoy goes in the further away they are from their supply lines. Finland targeted the Soviet mobile kitchens, I'd think targeting the fuel trucks would work well.


ukrainians today have shown field rations issued to russian's troops -expired 2015. If i may suggest something to ukrainian soldiers - after lunch your enemyies are in bushes....

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 1, 2022)

Those expiration dates are just suggestions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not big on punishing individuals based solely on their nationality rather than their behavior. It's one thing to sanction businesses and the individuals who aid and abet this series of war crimes, but the concept of collective guilt -- in this case based solely on nationality -- has some ugly echoes from history.



Well said, and spot on!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Those expiration dates are just suggestions.


This whole campaign is demonstrating to the world just how shoddy the Russian military has become. Expired rations, no fuel for the trucks and tanks, jeez. I wonder if their nuclear arsenal would even work - not that I want to see that tested!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This whole campaign is demonstrating to the world just how shoddy the Russian military has become. Expired rations, no fuel for the trucks and tanks, jeez. I wonder if their nuclear arsenal would even work - not that I want to see that tested!



Expired rations are probably found in every military. The MREs I had in the Army were past due as well. So were the rations we had from the British when we were on a multi-week training excercise. They are stockpiled in huge amounts in warehouses for when they are needed, so they go past their dates. If you wait to buy them until you need them, you cause supply issues, and your troops starve.

Rations are so pasteurized and treated that they last for years and years past their date.

The dates are are recommendations only. Consider them “best used by” dates.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The dates are (as pointed out already by someone else) are recommendations only. Consider them “best used by” dates.



And "best" is a debatable concept for any military rations.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Expired rations are probably found in every military. The MREs I had in the Army were past due as well.


I enjoy this guy's MRE channel

Here's rations from 1902. He eats it and lives.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I enjoy this guy's MRE channel
> 
> Here's rations from 1902. He eats it and lives.



While that's cool and all, I wouldn't touch anything canned through the early 20th century, as they used lead to seal the seams...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Expired rations are probably found in every military. The MREs I had in the Army were past due as well. So were the rations we had from the British when we were on a multi-week training excercise. They are stockpiled in huge amounts in warehouses for when they are needed, so they go past their dates. If you wait to buy them until you need them, you cause supply issues, and your troops starve.
> 
> Rations are so pasteurized and treated that they last for years and years past their date.
> 
> The dates are are recommendations only. Consider them “best used by” dates.


When my uncle was a conscript soldier in Spain (early 80s) he saw frozen meat from Peron's Argentina (guess the second sting, mid 70s).

Economic crisis doubtlessly was a reason but the need for stock was the main one.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Why should Britain alone do that? How about Canada, the US, the EU? There are Russians in pretty much every country in the world.


The EU was going to debate this issue as well.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

If Putin does launch ICBMs is there any NATO weaponry to intercept them? I think we’re still 30 years away from an anti ballistic missile system. We’d need to find and kill the boomers too. I imagine every NATO and friendly SSN and SSK is out looking. Anti-ballistic missile - Wikipedia


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

NATO has a BMD network in place across Europe.

Over the years, the Russians have whined about Europe's defense system, claiming that it's "aggressive" and "concerning" to Russia's security.

In other words, Moscow hates anything that's a deterrent to aggression.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> NATO has a BMD network in place across Europe.
> 
> Over the years, the Russians have whined about Europe's defense system, claiming that it's "aggressive" and "concerning" to Russia's security.
> 
> In other words, Moscow hates anything that's a deterrent to aggression.



It's straight out of the Soviet playbook...with it's scary similarity to Orwell's "1984" (Ministry of Truth, anyone?). 

Only Russia could call a defensive treaty (NATO) and defensive systems (BMD) "aggressive". It's part of the "opposite world" which the Russian leadership inhabit.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Some more details and updates about the "40-mile" Russian convoy bound for Kyiv:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621e4827980bea49f4b7a9f1%26Russian%20column%20near%20Kyiv%20hampered%20by%20breakdowns%262022-03-01T16%3A31%3A24.843Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:12b3cd38-8a66-48ee-b603-4788635f51f7&pinned_post_asset_id=621e4827980bea49f4b7a9f1&pinned_post_type=share


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## glennasher (Mar 1, 2022)

I have to wonder about the reports of Russia's troops being out of fuel. Isn't that part of what this war is about, oil? 

Russia sells oil all over Europe and the US, so why would there be shortages of such a commodity? A person would think they have plenty of oil to be used, and that such a vital commodity would be readily available to them.

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Putin does launch ICBMs is there any NATO weaponry to intercept them? I think we’re still 30 years away from an anti ballistic missile system. We’d need to find and kill the boomers too. I imagine every NATO and friendly SSN and SSK is out looking. Anti-ballistic missile - Wikipedia


aegis ashore


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

glennasher said:


> I have to wonder about the reports of Russia's troops being out of fuel. Isn't that part of what this war is about, oil?
> 
> Russia sells oil all over Europe and the US, so why would there be shortages of such a commodity? A person would think they have plenty of oil to be used, and that such a vital commodity would be readily available to them.



But you have to get the right stuff at the point of need. It's the classic "last mile" problem. Yes, I may have gas stations all over Europe that could provide fuel...but can I get that to the Russian forces in the front line...or to the convoy BEFORE it runs out of fuel.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

glennasher said:


> I have to wonder about the reports of Russia's troops being out of fuel. Isn't that part of what this war is about, oil?
> 
> Russia sells oil all over Europe and the US, so why would there be shortages of such a commodity? A person would think they have plenty of oil to be used, and that such a vital commodity would be readily available to them.


This was post some pages earlier. Is a very insightful read and explain a lot of the russian logistical problems:









Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks


Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine. Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has



warontherocks.com

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## glennasher (Mar 1, 2022)

^^^^^^^ Understood completely, but surely, SURELY, the Russians thought this through, and planned for such matters. I would have, and I'm just a four-year infantryman, not a logistics goober. Surely they'd have planned this stuff better, or, it's all propaganda............................................. You literally cannot trust anything you hear or read about, from any sources, these days.

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## fubar57 (Mar 1, 2022)

The Russians probably planned for a quick in and out; no need to worry about fuel if your enemy caves on the first day

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And "best" is a debatable concept for any military rations.



Agreed


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

glennasher said:


> ^^^^^^^ Understood completely, but surely, SURELY, the Russians thought this through, and planned for such matters. I would have, and I'm just a four-year infantryman, not a logistics goober. Surely they'd have planned this stuff better, or, it's all propaganda............................................. You literally cannot trust anything you hear or read about, from any sources, these days.



All planning is based on assumptions...get the assumptions wrong, and the entire plan collapses. As others have noted, the biggest problem (and it's a built-in constraint) is the lack of sufficient organic logistical resources within Russian army formations. 

Russian planning may have assumed a certain rate of progress but if that rate isn't achieved, you need a Plan B. If the planners didn't develop that Plan B, then they'll have problems...and that's likely what we're seeing here.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> The Russians probably planned for a quick in and out;



I tell my wife that all the time…

Oh wait, wrong conversation. Sorry.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I tell my wife that all the time…
> 
> Oh wait, wrong conversation. Sorry.



In other words "You'll enjoy this...didn't you?"

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## Crimea_River (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Meanwhile here in Canada our new Minister of Defence is focused on sexual misconduct and #metoo issues.



It's really unfortunate that you make this claim without context. While I, along with many, lament the state of Canada's armed forces, mention of a little-known (internationally) long term mandate announced by Minister Anand 5 months ago when things were very different only serves to further erode any negative preconceptions about our military state. To say that our minister is "focused" on those issues suggests that the pressing issues in Ukraine are taking a back seat to a long-term initiative and that's unfair. 

Canada has taken a strong, consistent and unified stance with our allies against this Russian aggression. We had forces personnel in the Ukraine as recently as last month and are now supplying military hardware and ammo. Yes, our contribution is small in the grand scheme of things but to suggest that we are an inward-looking outlier in all of this is plain wrong.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> It's really unfortunate that you make this claim without context. While I, along with many, lament the state of Canada's armed forces, mention of a little-known (internationally) long term mandate announced by Minister Anand 5 months ago when things were very different only serves to further erode any negative preconceptions about our military state. To say that our minister is "focused" on those issues suggests that the pressing issues in Ukraine are taking a back seat to a long-term initiative and that's unfair.
> 
> Canada has taken a strong, consistent and unified stance with our allies against this Russian aggression. We had forces personnel in the Ukraine as recently as last month and are now supplying military hardware and ammo. Yes, our contribution is small in the grand scheme of things but to suggest that we are an inward-looking outlier in all of this is plain wrong.


All good points. Anand was chosen for this role in order to focus on cleaning up sexual misconduct and harassment issues. That was her focus. With the collapse of the CPC, Trudeau is guaranteed a majority at the next election, but that doesn't stop him from virtue signaling in these appointments of inexperienced yet seemingly gender/ethnically/linguistically correct roles.

But yes Canada's stance with Ukraine has been solid. I just hope Anand remembers to replace asap those MANPATs she's just taken from CAF stores and donated to Ukraine. And maybe she can push her boss to meet our 2% defence spending commitment to NATO.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

Can’t we buy more from Russia? They’ll be needing hard currency.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 1, 2022)

Sadly, they are not an outlier. Here in the US much training time over the years has been wasted pursuing politically fashionable social agendas, whereas the focus should always be on training to the highest standard in warfighter skills to deter, and if necessary, defeat any foreign aggression.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> All good points. Anand was chosen for this role in order to focus on cleaning up sexual misconduct and harassment issues. That was her focus. With the collapse of the CPC, Trudeau is guaranteed a majority at the next election, but that doesn't stop him from virtue signaling in these appointments of inexperienced yet seemingly gender/ethnically/linguistically correct roles.
> 
> But yes Canada's stance with Ukraine has been solid. I just hope Anand remembers to replace asap those MANPATs she's just taken from CAF stores and donated to Ukraine. And maybe she can push her boss to meet our 2% defence spending commitment to NATO.



Agree with all you say. I just felt that it was important to set the record straight and not dredge up completely unrelated and little-known Canadian political issues with our international forum mates that risks making us look like a bunch of idiots. God knows we don't need any help in that regard.....

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And maybe she can push her boss to meet our 2% defence spending commitment to NATO.



Canada and all other NATO members except the US (3.42%), Greece (2.24%), Estonia and UK (2.13%), Romania (2.04%), and Latvia and Poland (2.01%).



NATO Spending by Country 2022

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Canada and all other NATO members except the US (3.42%), Greece (2.24%), Estonia (2.13%), the UK (2.13%), Romania (2.04%), and Poland (2.01%).
> 
> 
> 
> NATO Spending by Country 2022



Key words in that agreement: “by 2025” (something that some people don’t mention).

Having said that, I think everyone can agree that meeting that requirement sooner is better in light of our current situation.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Canada and all other NATO members except the US (3.42%), Greece (2.24%), Estonia and UK (2.13%), Romania (2.04%), and Latvia and Poland (2.01%).


I expect the Germans will exceed 2.5% by the end of 2022. They'll be pulling double shifts at KMW, Dynamit Nobel AG and Eurofighters, etc. The Luftwaffe has some capability gaps to fill, like an attack helicopter. Time to make some calls to Italy's Agusta for their A129 Mangusta.


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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Can’t we buy more from Russia? They’ll be needing hard currency.


you mean like Vladivostok or Novosibirsk??

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Key words in that agreement: “by 2025” (something that some people don’t mention).
> 
> Having said that, I think everyone can agree that meeting that requirement sooner is better in light of our current situation.



Yes...plus the mandate isn't actually to achieve that level. It's merely to aspire to meet that level. I'm paraphrasing but it's typical "peace dividend" weasel-wording so that countries can say they're trying without being actually held to a real target. 

Hopefully, recent events will encourage ALL NATO members to up their game and bolster their military forces. At the end of the Cold War, the RAF numbered about 95,000 personnel with 36 fast-jet squadrons (including OCUs). Today, the RAF has just 33,000 personnel and 10 fast-jet squadrons, and that doesn't factor in the reduction in assets like MPAs from 5 squadrons in the late-80s to just 9 aircraft today.

The big problem, at least for the RAF, is that they sold off all the unused airfields, or transformed them to non-flying uses, including Coltishall, Chivenor, Honington, Kinloss, Leuchars, St.Mawgan, Wattisham, Wyton, not to mention the 4 bases the RAF closed in Germany (Laarbruch, Wildenrath, Gutersloh, Bruggen). It'll be a REALLY tough task to grow front-line strength when there aren't sufficient airfields to house any additional squadrons.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

I’m sure spending will go up now. Putin’s sitzkrieg was a wake up call to all. NATO caught a break (a little).


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## GTX (Mar 1, 2022)

Some very interesting analysis on the background to the current conflict:









‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes


Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.




www.politico.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some very interesting analysis on the background to the current conflict:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Apparently during a meeting with then president Trump he told him that the nuclear option was on the table if war broke out. Not sure the validity of this, so take it for what it is. I guess Putin threatening with nukes should not surprise anyone anyhow.

“Additionally, Hill said in one of the final meetings between Trump and Putin — where she was present — Putin tried to warn Trump about this very possibility but she didn't "think Trump figured out what he was saying."

She said: "Putin was making the point that: 'Well you know, Donald, we have these hypersonic missiles.' And Trump was saying, 'Well, we will get them too.' Putin was saying, 'Well, yes, you will get them _eventually_, but we've got them first.'”









Fiona Hill says Trump missed Putin warning nuclear option was possible


"So if anybody thinks that Putin wouldn't use something that he's got that is unusual and cruel, think again," Hill said.



www.businessinsider.com

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## v2 (Mar 1, 2022)

Colonel Oleksandr "Grey Wolf" Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.
Col. Oksanchenko, considered one of the world's best display pilots, posthumously awarded the title of "Hero of Ukraine" by President Zelensky.
Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows.
Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.
He came out of retirement to defend his country from the Russian invasion and paid the highest price. Col. Oksanchenko was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine by the president of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Blue Skies Sir!


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)




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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)




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## Dash119 (Mar 1, 2022)




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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)




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## wlewisiii (Mar 1, 2022)




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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 1, 2022)




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## fubar57 (Mar 1, 2022)

Rest in Peace, freedom fighter


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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)




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## Airframes (Mar 1, 2022)




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## vikingBerserker (Mar 1, 2022)

dammit


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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some very interesting analysis on the background to the current conflict:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Does Putin have the ability to launch on his own? Are there people, with children, between him and the “Key”? Does Putin have children? Probably doesn’t matter.

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## Grandson312 (Mar 1, 2022)

I've read through this whole thread so far. Good discussion. My heart goes out to all the people, and especially children being harmed by this shortsighted action - Ukrainians, Russians, and anyone else who will be impacted. In a way, I'm glad the "Candy Bomber" passed away before this really broke out. I would hate to have him had that kind of anxiety when leaving this life. 

One aspect I researched was Putin's justification of "de-Nazifying" Ukraine. I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, and unfortunately is not just Russian propaganda. Ukraine really does have a serious Nazi problem which has to be addressed, when this is over. Ukraine is no innocent lamb by any stretch, and the Black & White portrayal being pushed by the same media that we know has lied to us constantly should ring a few alarms. 

If Ukraine has the right to self-determination, why does the Donbas region's people not have that right? 

What kind of nation allows a Nazi-riddled battalion to officially enter their National Guard? Desperate times create strange allies, for sure. I'm not judging Ukrainians, or justifying Putin's war. I don't even understand the extent of it. All I'm basing this on is the unit's own admission (Drill Sgt. claimed 50% of the unit were Nazis, Official Spokesperson praised that officer, and said "only" 10%-20% of the unit were Nazis)

It is in my opinion reasonable to assume that either a) there are Nazis at higher levels in the Ukraine military that allowed this unit to be accepted into its official Guard, or b) there were major conditions attached to that acceptance that I have not found a report on, and it's also possible both of these things are true at once. 

Anyway, this is the source article from 2015 in which the first interviews took place. It wasn't all that easy to find. 

Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis

I could not find a follow-up report, so I don't know if the problem worsened, improved, or stayed the same. We can say for sure that in 2015, there was zero intention to correct it. 

Hiding the Ukrainian Nazi problem only lends credence to Putin's exaggerations, so please don't confuse this with a pro-Putin stance. 

Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had allowed Donbas to secede? 
Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had de-Nazified its own military? 
Do severe sanctions that starve and freeze a people have a substantially different effect than killing civilians outright? If severe sanctions over time kill more civilians and starve more children than the war itself, does that not only perpetuate the cycle? 

The purpose of my questions is the interest in peace, and finding different paths to it, because it seems we (humanity) are repeating patterns that have not worked very well, and squanders the bravery and strength of our warriors in my opinion. There must be alternatives to what has been tried before, and so clearly failed. 

What could be done differently? Any thoughts on de-escalation? Also, please tell me how and where I am wrong.

Thanks

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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> She said: "Putin was making the point that: 'Well you know, Donald, we have these hypersonic missiles.' And Trump was saying, 'Well, we will get them too.' Putin was saying, 'Well, yes, you will get them _eventually_, but we've got them first.'”


I suspect that with most new high-tech things, the U.S. isn't going to advertise their hypersonic weapons like Putin does.

Remember back when there was talk of high-tech stealth fighters and bombers, but they weren't revealed until they appeared suring the Gulf War?

I've seen reports of "test failures" of the HAWC and ARRW HSMs, but Raytheon/Grumman and Lockheed-Martin are really good at what they do.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

v2 said:


> Colonel Oleksandr "Grey Wolf" Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.
> Col. Oksanchenko, considered one of the world's best display pilots, posthumously awarded the title of "Hero of Ukraine" by President Zelensky.
> Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows.
> Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.
> ...


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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> I've read through this whole thread so far. Good discussion. My heart goes out to all the people, and especially children being harmed by this shortsighted action - Ukrainians, Russians, and anyone else who will be impacted. In a way, I'm glad the "Candy Bomber" passed away before this really broke out. I would hate to have him had that kind of anxiety when leaving this life.
> 
> One aspect I researched was Putin's justification of "de-Nazifying" Ukraine. I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, and unfortunately is not just Russian propaganda. Ukraine really does have a serious Nazi problem which has to be addressed, when this is over. Ukraine is no innocent lamb by any stretch, and the Black & White portrayal being pushed by the same media that we know has lied to us constantly should ring a few alarms.
> 
> ...


With all respect... 
If you do want to learn more about Ukraine, drop me some questions in PM and I'll do my best to answer them.
Ask me about "self-determination, "Nazis", etc.
Really, there is no need to repeat Kremlin propaganda again and again.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 1, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> <snip>



Was typing the answer, but it goes neck-deep in politics, so I'd better not go there.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Does Putin have the ability to launch on his own? Are there people, with children, between him and the “Key”? Does Putin have children? Probably doesn’t matter.


As far an I know he have 2 daughters from his first (and only?) marriage (divorced in 2013) and some grandchildren (don't know numbers) that by his own admision he do not see too often.

They keep a low profile due to security concerns (at least officially).

Been like this is as good as not having any descendants. 

Also, he is a man in a crusade to bring Rodina back on his feet, so I guess that nobody is above that mission, perhaps not even himself.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> With all respect...
> If you do want to learn more about Ukraine, drop me some questions in PM and I'll do my best to answer them.
> Ask me about "self-determination, "Nazis", etc.
> Really, there is no need to repeat Kremlin propaganda again and again.


I’d like to read a bit of that, too. If you aren’t too tired of typing.


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## Dimlee (Mar 1, 2022)

v2 said:


> Colonel Oleksandr "Grey Wolf" Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.
> Col. Oksanchenko, considered one of the world's best display pilots, posthumously awarded the title of "Hero of Ukraine" by President Zelensky.
> Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows.
> Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.
> ...








The Here, Now


AFT



ww2aircraft.net


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## Marcel (Mar 1, 2022)

Putin does have children. I believe his daughter lives out used to live in Alkmaar The Netherlands, don’t know if she is still there.


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## davparlr (Mar 1, 2022)

Several thoughts I have had.
1. The Russian Army looks very weak and indecisive. They have some very effective weapons systems but seems to be unorganized and undedicated. I'm not sure they are any better than the Iraqi army. If they engaged any NATO force I think they would be surprised. Shock and awe to them was fizzle, of course the Ukrainis are not the Iraqis in fighting spirit. Getting supplies into Ukraine is going to be difficult if the Russian try to seal the borders. Vietnam tactics may work, move at night, hide in the daytime, Russia seems to be weak in night fighting.
2. I am sure China is watching carefully and is probably stunned at the difficulty the Russians or having, and more importantly, how the world reacted to the Ukraine invasion. Would they really want to get bogged down in an extended war while the world was watching? Ukraine maybe helping us out in that arena.
3. If I was Taiwan, I would be stocking up in Harpoons, Stingers, Exocets (?), javelins, Patriot missiles, air deployable underwater mines, and tons of decoys.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> If Ukraine has the right to self-determination, why does the Donbas region's people not have that right?



So, by that calculus, the Confederacy should have been allowed to secede from the Union. Is that what you're saying? That path simply leads to increasingly smaller "balkanized" geopolitical entities that lack the ability to be self-sustaining....so they become vassals for a larger, more powerful neighbour in which case, how much self-determination do you think they truly have? 




Grandson312 said:


> What kind of nation allows a Nazi-riddled battalion to officially enter their National Guard? Desperate times create strange allies, for sure. I'm not judging Ukrainians, or justifying Putin's war. I don't even understand the extent of it. All I'm basing this on is the unit's own admission (Drill Sgt. claimed 50% of the unit were Nazis, Official Spokesperson praised that officer, and said "only" 10%-20% of the unit were Nazis)
> 
> It is in my opinion reasonable to assume that either a) there are Nazis at higher levels in the Ukraine military that allowed this unit to be accepted into its official Guard, or b) there were major conditions attached to that acceptance that I have not found a report on, and it's also possible both of these things are true at once.
> 
> Anyway, this is the source article from 2015 in which the first interviews took place. It wasn't all that easy to find.



Firstly, it's clear that more senior leaders above the drill sergeant disagreed not only with his characterization of the unit, but also with the way in way he engaged with the media. 

I'd like to understand what constitutes a "nazi." Every nation has problems with right-wing extremists...the EU nations and the US are no exceptions. What's the dividing line between US right-wing extremists and Ukrainian "nazis"? I'd like to understand so we can determine if Ukraine is so very different from other nations. 

The report dates from 2015. Zelensky was elected in 2016 on a promise of eradicating Ukrainian corruption and he's made decent progress. It's not something that can be changed overnight but substantial progress, according to international metrics, has been made. The weaving of any extreme ideology within democratic structures inherently brings corruption, via nepotism if nothing else, so I have to assume some progress has been made....perhaps not enough. 

Please understand I'm not saying Zelensky is a saint (he is, after all, a politician...which is a four-letter word). Nor am I saying that Ukraine is blameless in this debacle. However, the action by Russia is entirely disproportionate to any threat Ukraine posed. 





Grandson312 said:


> Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had allowed Donbas to secede?



You need to look at what happened in 2014 in more detail. Even a casual study reveals that the fighting in Donbas in 2014 resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees, which went roughly 50/50 west and east. Donbas was not homogenously Russian-leaning. There were plenty of loyal Ukrainians living there. The simple fact is that Russia stoked aggression in the region, provided arms to militants and special forces operatives to disrupt the situation. They took portions of Donbas by force...and then complained about Ukraine resisting that invasion. I'm not saying Ukraine is innocent but it's more complex than simply saying "let Donbas secede." What about all the loyal Ukrainians in Donbas who didn't want to secede?




Grandson312 said:


> Would there be a war right now, if Ukraine had de-Nazified its own military?



Putin is using the whole nazi moniker to self-justify the decisions he'd already made. Did Putin ever say "De-nazify your military and we'll pull back"? Nope. He simply said "We're just holding exercises. We're not planning to invade." Don't be fooled by Putin throwing around the nazi moniker...he's doing that to stoke his own support in Russia based on memories of the Great Patriotic War. 

Putin wanted to keep Ukraine within Moscow's sphere of influence. He didn't want Ukraine leaning further towards the west (which is where Zelensky was leading the country), and he particularly didn't want Ukraine joining NATO. So, yes, we would have still had war if Ukraine had "de-nazified" (whatever that means) its military.




Grandson312 said:


> Do severe sanctions that starve and freeze a people have a substantially different effect than killing civilians outright? If severe sanctions over time kill more civilians and starve more children than the war itself, does that not only perpetuate the cycle?



Putin doesn't care about civilians...his own or anybody else's. The only way to invoke change with Putin is either militarily (which NOBODY wants in Europe for fear of escalation into nuclear war) or to hit him with sanctions that not only impact him but also affect all his cronies and the oligarchs that run Russia. 

Please note if any NATO nation gets involved militarily, then it simply lets Putin say "I told you so...NATO isn't defensive, it's aggressive and focused on destroying Russia."




Grandson312 said:


> The purpose of my questions is the interest in peace, and finding different paths to it, because it seems we (humanity) are repeating patterns that have not worked very well, and squanders the bravery and strength of our warriors in my opinion. There must be alternatives to what has been tried before, and so clearly failed.
> 
> What could be done differently? Any thoughts on de-escalation? Also, please tell me how and where I am wrong.



The biggest problem right now is finding an exit strategy. Putin clearly wants Ukraine to be disarmed and become a puppet of Moscow. Ukrainians aren't going to let that happen. One possible negotiated settlement is the ceding of some territory from Ukraine to Russia but, again, I don't see Kyiv or the Ukrainian people doing that...it simply rewards hostile aggression. 

So...no, I don't see an easy way out of this. While Ukraine isn't totally innocent, nothing that's been done to-date by Ukraine justifies the actions that Putin has taken. The only hope is that, somehow, Putin is deposed by a more rational leader...and I'm not holding my breath for that to happen any time soon.

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## Marcel (Mar 1, 2022)

Hmm, the Russians look weak, but still I expect them to surround the city of Kiev in the coming days. Don’t see the Ukrainians capable of preventing that. 
My thoughts are with all Ukrainian members and especially with the ones living in Kiev. Stay safe!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> I've read through this whole thread so far. Good discussion. My heart goes out to all the people, and especially children being harmed by this shortsighted action - Ukrainians, Russians, and anyone else who will be impacted. In a way, I'm glad the "Candy Bomber" passed away before this really broke out. I would hate to have him had that kind of anxiety when leaving this life.
> 
> One aspect I researched was Putin's justification of "de-Nazifying" Ukraine. I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, and unfortunately is not just Russian propaganda. Ukraine really does have a serious Nazi problem which has to be addressed, when this is over. Ukraine is no innocent lamb by any stretch, and the Black & White portrayal being pushed by the same media that we know has lied to us constantly should ring a few alarms.
> 
> ...


Just a quick point about the so-called Nazis - President Zelensky's family save for one brother, was murdered by Nazis in WWII.
The one survivor, Zelensky's grandfather, fought the Germans during WWII.

Pretty sure that if there were actual Nazis in Ukraine, Zelensky would have dealt with the issue without needing Putin's help...

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## pgeno71 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Apparently during a meeting with then president Trump he told him that the nuclear option was on the table if war broke out. Not sure the validity of this, so take it for what it is. I guess Putin threatening with nukes should not surprise anyone anyhow.
> 
> “Additionally, Hill said in one of the final meetings between Trump and Putin — where she was present — Putin tried to warn Trump about this very possibility but she didn't "think Trump figured out what he was saying."
> 
> ...


I am sure there is no knowing what he would do if he got desperate enough. But I would not put too much stake in what she says. Isn't this the same Fiona Hill who during the Obama administration argued against sending weapons to Ukraine as it might provoke a Russian attack and then criticized Trump during the impeachment hearings for following the same policy and not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Is this also the Fiona Hill who introduced Christopher Steele to Igor Denchenko and never divulged that fact to Congress or the DOJ? Just asking..... now I'll probably get a warning about being too political, but you unnecessarily included in your post the criticism of Trump by Hill, who has become a clear partisan operator.

Another take on the same conversation is of course Trump is downplaying the threat. Or, would she rather see the U.S. President grovel and say, "oh no please Mr. Putin don't launch your missiles at us." Give me break.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I am sure there is no knowing what he would do if he got desperate enough. But I would not put too much stake in what she says. Isn't this the same Fiona Hill who during the Obama administration argued against sending weapons to Ukraine as it might provoke a Russian attack and then criticized Trump during the impeachment hearings for following the same policy and not supplying Ukraine with weapons? Is this also the Fiona Hill who introduced Christopher Steele to Igor Denchenko and never divulged that fact to Congress or the DOJ? Just asking..... now I'll probably get a warning about being too political, but you unnecessarily included in your post the criticism of Trump by Hill, who has become a clear partisan operator.
> 
> Another take on the same conversation is of course Trump is downplaying the threat. Or, would she rather see the U.S. President grovel and say, "oh no please Mr. Putin don't launch your missiles at us." Give me break.



That wasn’t my point…

My point was Putin has always made his intentions clear. It should come as no surprise.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Steady on, chaps...we're gusting perilously close to politics here (and I'm not a moderator). This has been a great thread with lots of good inputs. I'd hate to see it closed down because we err into domestic US politics.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 1, 2022)

Putin threatening with nukes does not surprise anyone. The fact he's threatening everyone reminds me of a hostage taker waving his gun at anyone who comes near.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Putin threatening with nukes does not surprise anyone. The fact he's threatening everyone reminds me of a hostage taker waving his gun at anyone who comes near.



TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 1, 2022)

Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:






vs the USD its pretty close as well.

I have to feel bad for the innocent Russian citizens who like most of us are just trying to
make it through they day with shelter over their head and food on the table.

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## J_P_C (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.


for me he looks like Khrushchev during UN session screaming on rest of the world with shoe in his hand - scary and funny in the same time..... and very... russian/imperial

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:
> View attachment 659857
> 
> 
> ...



I entirely agree. It's always the innocent who suffer when those who think they're invulnerable or omnipotent become aggressive. 

Given that many of the oligarchs grew up during the Soviet era, perhaps they'd be willing to share their billions with the common workers to help alleviate their suffering? No? Thought not!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> TBH, that's my biggest fear. He's embarked on this ridiculous adventure with no clear exit strategy. He isn't going to win in the long run and anything less than victory makes him look weak. I worry that he'll feel cornered...and we all know what happens to a cornered bear.



Ditto. He is basically like a wounded dog backed into a corner with no way out. He played all his cards in a game he cannot win. He is capable of anything at this point. Very scary times.

I still hope there is another modern day Colonel Stanislav Petrov that will stop him. Hopefully there are enough cooler heads within his regime who are holding secret talks and one morning we wake up to him being removed from office.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Here is the Ruble to Euro exchange rate right now:
> View attachment 659857
> 
> 
> ...



The Russian people are victims of this too. It’s not good for anyone.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ditto. He is basically like wounded dog backed into a corner with no way out. He played all his cards in a game he cannot win. He is capable of anything at this point. Very scary times.
> 
> I still hope there is another modern day Colonel Stanislav Petrov that will stop him. Hopefully there are enough cooler heads within his regime who are holding secret talks and one morning we wake up to being removed from office.


I agree. Come on, its' Russia. There has to be somebody angling for Putin.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Russian people are victims of this too. It’s not good for anyone.



Agreed. I'm reading these reports of Russian POWs who thought they were on a training exercise in Russia/Belarus and then suddenly found themselves in a shooting war. It's not clear how far up the command chain the obfuscation occurred. Clearly, the pilots knew exactly where they were flying and what they were attacking. It's easier to hide the truth from the grunt soldiers, particularly if the officer is the only one with the map.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just a quick point about the so-called Nazis - President Zelensky's family save for one brother, was murdered by Nazis in WWII.
> The one survivor, Zelensky's grandfather, fought the Germans during WWII.
> 
> Pretty sure that if there were actual Nazis in Ukraine, Zelensky would have dealt with the issue without needing Putin's help...



Agreed. It's hard to see Zelensky, who's Jewish, blithely allowing nazis to walk the highest halls of power in Ukraine. Again, that just beggars belief.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

I’m under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what’s going on?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

If Kyiv falls, will Zelensky be allowed to be taken alive? It would be easier to disappear him in a combat zone. He must be on Vlad’s enemies list.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what’s going on?



There are unofficial news sources in Russia but they're heavily oppressed. A day or two ago, one news media outlet asked it's readers if it should continue reporting on the Ukraine situation or stop altogether. Continuing would risk very unwelcome attention from the powers-that-be. 

Russians can also access some foreign news sources but, again, they're controlled and can be turned off if officials don't like what's being written. 

Undeterred, news is often passed via other means. One example recently cited was using online restaurant review websites as a means of passing along news updates. Those pesky plebian masses have a nasty habit of working around any rules the powers-that-be try to invoke.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 1, 2022)

While we've been talking about nuclear threats, what is also concerning is to what extent a cyberattack on one or more NATO members, something that Putin must be considering, might trigger Article 5.









Cyberattack on NATO could trigger collective defence clause - official


A cyberattack on a NATO member state could trigger Article 5, its collective defence clause, a NATO official said on Monday, amid concerns that chaos in cyberspace around Russia's invasion of Ukraine could spill over into other territories.




www.reuters.com


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So, by that calculus, the Confederacy should have been allowed to secede from the Union.


By today’s measure, that of a people’s self determination, yes the Confederacy should have been allowed. The voluntarily joined the union and should have been able to leave it just as easily.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

Is Putin aware of that?

RE post #800


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> By today’s measure, that of a people’s self determination, yes the Confederacy should have been allowed. The voluntarily joined the union and should have been able to leave it just as easily.



Again, what about the people who want to stay in the union but live in the secessionist state(s) (use of lower case is deliberate)? In the Donbas, those people who remained loyal to Kyiv had zero choice...their homeland was forcibly separated from the rest of Ukraine. Is that fair? Is that self-determination?

By the time of the American Civil War, the US had over 80 years' experience in evolving its democratic approach...and that was based on a number of centuries of freedoms inherited from the United Kingdom. Ukraine has had a non-autocratic government for, what, eight years? Democracy and democratic values require time to take root. Given the relative ease with which Russian operatives could disrupt the situation in the Donbas, what chance any referendum on Donbas secession being free and/or fair?

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## Crimea_River (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is Putin aware of that?
> 
> RE post #800



He is now.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agreed. It's hard to see Zelensky, who's Jewish, blithely allowing nazis to walk the highest halls of power in Ukraine. Again, that just beggars belief.



Didn’t he lose a family member in the Holocaust?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what’s going on?



The state controls the media. Reports are coming though that Putin us losing control of that.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what’s going on?



This is timely...from the BBC:
_
Two leading independent media outlets - TV Rain and the Ekho Moskvy (Echo of Moscow) radio channel - were taken off air on Tuesday night.

This follows a complaint from the Russian prosecutor general's office that both outlets have been airing "calls to extremist activities" and "premeditated false information about Russian servicemen".

Both TV Rain and Ekho Moskvy have denied the allegations.

They remain visible and able to operate on social media and YouTube.

Separately, Russian Wikipedia said that media watchdog Roskomnadzor had issued it with a warning, demanding it remove an article entitled "Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022", or risk being blocked.

Russian authorities and the state-controlled media do not refer to the "invasion" of Ukraine or the "war", instead calling it a "military operation"._


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Didn’t he lose a family member in the Holocaust?


His entire family, except for one of four brothers, was murdered.

The lone survivor was his Grandfather.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> His entire family, except for one of four brothers, was murdered.
> 
> The lone survivor was his Grandfather.



Damn, and Putin wants to play the Nazi card?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Expired rations are probably found in every military. The MREs I had in the Army were past due as well. So were the rations we had from the British when we were on a multi-week training excercise. They are stockpiled in huge amounts in warehouses for when they are needed, so they go past their dates. If you wait to buy them until you need them, you cause supply issues, and your troops starve.
> 
> Rations are so pasteurized and treated that they last for years and years past their date.
> 
> The dates are are recommendations only. Consider them “best used by” dates.



We had expired MREs in Desert Storm the first few weeks we were at Moron AB. They were indeed edible, but in typical GI fashion we broke the acronym down to "Meals Refused by Ethiopians."

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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Damn, and Putin wants to play the Nazi card?



Ministry of Truth, remember?

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## Denniss (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ministry of Truth, remember?


Is that Truth Social ?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Pentagon official says Russian troops have 'deliberately punched holes' in their own gas tanks 'presumably' to avoid combat as morale declines: report


In an apparent attempt to avoid combat, some Russian troops have punched holes in their vehicles' gas tanks, a Pentagon official said, according to the New York Times.




www.yahoo.com


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Damn, and Putin wants to play the Nazi card?


Right?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Back to the discussion about Russian equipment. Since the fall of the Soviet Union (and probably long before) they have always had issues with equipment.

I certainly don't think they are what they used to be, or what we thought they were. Russian doctrine was always to overpower with superior numbers. How do you think they beat the Germans in WW2?

I actually worked with Russian soldiers in Kosovo back in 2002-2003. There equipment was atrocious. They did not even have winter boots. I had one soldier offer to trade me his bayonet if I bought him a pair of US Army winter boots from the camp PX.

Their aviation unit had Mi-24 Hinds. They were constantly grounded for maintenance largely due to lack of parts, and aircraft looked like they were maintained by a kindergarten class. I remember sitting in the aircraft and thinking it would come apart.


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## Denniss (Mar 1, 2022)

Did we have this already?
Lukashenko presenting a map of Ukraine divided into 4 occupation zones (+ Crimea) and arrows pointing to force movements. One of them ends in Moldova


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

v2 said:


> Colonel Oleksandr "Grey Wolf" Oksanchenko who was the Ukrainian Air Force Flanker display pilot between 2013-2018 has lost his life on Friday night when his jet was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 Triumph Air Defence Missile System.
> Col. Oksanchenko, considered one of the world's best display pilots, posthumously awarded the title of "Hero of Ukraine" by President Zelensky.
> Col. Oksanchenko was not only a very experienced pilot who won a number of awards for the best flying display at many events across Europe, but he was also a true fan of airshows.
> Despite leaving the active service and joining the reserves in late 2018 he volunteered to remain in the Ukrainian Flanker Solo Display Team as a coach/advisor and travelled with the team during the 2019 display season which was also the last airshow season for the team.
> ...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Did we have this already?
> Lukashenko presenting a map of Ukraine divided into 4 occupation zones (+ Crimea) and arrows pointing to force movements. One of them ends in Moldova




Mussolini redux, a jackal hoping to get in on the spoils.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m under the impression that the Russian people are better informed generally than the folks in the DPRK. Do they have only approved sources of information or do they have access to international news? Do they know what’s going on?



The media in Russia is controlled.

_
WASHINGTON/ST. PETERSBURG — "For more than a decade I've seen how dramatically the space for independent journalism has been shrinking at the regional level," Moscow-based freelancer Artem Filatov told VOA.

Speaking ahead of a constitutional vote that gave President Vladimir Putin sweeping powers, the former Echo of Moscow radio journalist said, "There is little critical reporting toward Putin's system. And many Moscow-based media are also under control [of the state or state-aligned corporations]."

Since Putin came to power in 2000, Russia has moved to limit news media and critics. Steps have included passage of a 2014 law threatening bloggers and a 2019 law to control the internet, plus measures on extremism, foreign interference and false news that can be used to punish journalists.

Media buyouts by state-owned companies or Putin supporters have led to journalists quitting over censorship. While some independent news outlets have survived or emerged, many are located overseas for protection from interference or retaliation.

Impunity has increased the sense of threat. Since January 2000, at least 25 journalists have been killed for their work, but full justice has been achieved in only one case — Anastasiya Baburova of Novaya Gazeta — according to a count by the press freedom group Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). A Moscow court in 2015 sentenced the leader of an extremist group to life in prison for her murder. Two others were convicted in connection with the killing 2011._









Russian Media Fights for Survival Under Putin


Over two decades of media suppression, Russia’s independent journalists move online or outside nation's borders




www.voanews.com





The access of the average Russian to non-state-controlled media seems pretty slim ... and dangerous to its purveyors. Perhaps not DPRK-level control, but there's definitely a hand at the helm, steering the message.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There are unofficial news sources in Russia but they're heavily oppressed. A day or two ago, one news media outlet asked it's readers if it should continue reporting on the Ukraine situation or stop altogether. Continuing would risk very unwelcome attention from the powers-that-be.
> 
> Russians can also access some foreign news sources but, again, they're controlled and can be turned off if officials don't like what's being written.
> 
> Undeterred, news is often passed via other means. One example recently cited was using online restaurant review websites as a means of passing along news updates. Those pesky plebian masses have a nasty habit of working around any rules the powers-that-be try to invoke.



Solzhenitsyn documents the use of Samizdat going back to the 60s in the USSR in his opus _The GULag Archipelago_.

The trouble with oppressing people is that they try to find workarounds.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Did we have this already?
> Lukashenko presenting a map of Ukraine divided into 4 occupation zones (+ Crimea) and arrows pointing to force movements. One of them ends in Moldova




Notice the information about USA military units in the upper right corner? That’s a 1st Cav patch. Something is definitely up. Is the shit about to hit the fan?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

I’m wondering if Putin plans to launch his main assault on Kyiv to coincide with the state of union address.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Notice the information about USA military units in the upper right corner? That’s a 1st Cav patch. Something is definitely up. Is the shit about to hit the fan?


Yeah, it's definately a 1st Cav. emblem.
This phone won't let me zoom in enough to see the row to the right or the emblem and row above  

Also, them laying their sights in Moldova would not go over well with Romania, who has an accord with that nation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m wondering if Putin plans to launch his main assault on Kyiv to coincide with the state of union address.



3 AM might not be good for his troops.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Yeah, it's definately a 1st Cav. emblem.
> This phone won't let me zoom in enough to see the row to the right or the emblem and row above
> 
> Also, them laying their sights in Moldova would not go over well with Romania, who has an accord with that nation.



This map shows the beginning of WWIII.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 3 AM might not be good for his troops.



Good point.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 1, 2022)

This is the best close-up I can get....it doesn't help much:

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 1, 2022)

Video clip captures a UAF L39. I know they have at least one "ZA" (ground attack version).

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 1, 2022)

And from Ward Carroll


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This is the best close-up I can get....it doesn't help much:
> 
> View attachment 659877


I can almost make out what looks like armor in the row to the right.

Above that, is the insignia perhaps a Polish armor unit insignia and related armor in the row to the right?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 1, 2022)

That big convoy has to be target number one. Hit the head and block the road. The Rasputitsa prevents overland driving.

When and how will it be hit?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 1, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And from Ward Carroll



Was that an F-15 at the 53 second mark or the Russian look alike? I can't see Ward Carroll making that kind of mistake.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Was that an F-15 at the 53 second mark or the Russian look alike? I can't see Ward Carroll making that kind of mistake.



That was an Eagle

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That big convoy has to be target number one. Hit the head and block the road. The Rasputitsa prevents overland driving.
> 
> When and how will it be hit?



My understanding is that Ukrainian Su-25s are largely based in the south of the country, away from Russian ADA/ADM and fighters. There's probably not going to be much coming from the air unless the Ukes decide to take a dose of Fukitol and launch a mass strike.

They can still hammer it from the ground, as you say, due to the mud.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Was that an F-15 at the 53 second mark or the Russian look alike? I can't see Ward Carroll making that kind of mistake.


That was an Eagle - I think he threw that in there to get the next pan shot

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 1, 2022)

Russian Hit Squad Sent to Assassinate Zelensky ‘Eliminated,’ Ukrainian Official Says


The Chechen special-forces team sent to assassinate Zelensky was "directly destroyed," a Ukrainian defense official said.




www.yahoo.com


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## GrauGeist (Mar 1, 2022)

Well, that puts the Chechens at 0 for 2, since the Ukranians wiped out a Chechen convoy near Kiev Saturday, killing it's commander General Tushayev in the process.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

3 members of Russia's parliament speak out against Putin's invasion of Ukraine, marking a rare moment of dissent


The three members — Vyacheslav Markhaev, Oleg Smolin, and Mikhail Matveyev — said they weren't aware a full-scale invasion would ensue.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 3 members of Russia's parliament speak out against Putin's invasion of Ukraine, marking a rare moment of dissent
> 
> 
> The three members — Vyacheslav Markhaev, Oleg Smolin, and Mikhail Matveyev — said they weren't aware a full-scale invasion would ensue.
> ...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

Uh oh...is there dissention in Putin land?

Looks like three parliaments members are about to have unfortunate accidents...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Uh oh...is there dissention in Putin land?
> 
> Looks like three parliaments members are about to have unfortunate accidents...



I may have my first 3 guests at my Siberian forest hideaway.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I actually worked with Russian soldiers in Kosovo back in 2002-2003. There equipment was atrocious. They did not even have winter boots. I had one soldier offer to trade me his bayonet if I bought him a pair of US Army winter boots from the camp PX.
> 
> Their aviation unit had Mi-24 Hinds. They were constantly grounded for maintenance largely due to lack of parts, and aircraft looked like they were maintained by a kindergarten class. I remember sitting in the aircraft and thinking it would come apart.


How can you run a modern, highly technical armed force with conscripts that you only have for two years? Especially when most of them don't bring much technical experience or training with them coming in the door.
In the Navy in the 1970s, 1/4 of my obligated service was consumed in training, and I was fast-tracked because I was a "sort of" techie. Eventually my rate was abolished and replaced by civilian contractors, as the training/service ratio had reached one third or more.
Add to that a force composition that is weighted heavily to firepower over support and supply, and you see the result on your screens.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 2, 2022)

This is beyond craziness. 

Is truly all this equipment been abandoned by russian troops?

Really some soldiers just left their vehicles and march back to the border?









Ukrainians Citizens Are Taking It Upon Themselves To Capture Russian Military Vehicles (Updated)


These actions are symbolic of the problems that have slowed the Russian advance and the will of average Ukrainians to resist the invasion.




www.thedrive.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 2, 2022)

Kherson yesterday.
Civilian volunteers tried to organise the defence in the park and came under fire. No survivors, probably.

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## The Basket (Mar 2, 2022)

I think.

What is the goal? What is the end game? How do you win?

None of this makes sense.

Conquer Ukraine. But the population don't want to be conquered. What happens then?

Destroy Ukraine? Why? What is that saying? 

None of this makes a lick of sense. Economically or Socially or Military.

It's just evil for the sake of evil? This is what is beyond me. It doesn't make sense.

And Putin threatening nuclear war. Other countries have nuclear weapons too. And Russia is not going to come out lightly.

It just crazy.

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can almost make out what looks like armor in the row to the right.
> 
> Above that, is the insignia perhaps a Polish armor unit insignia and related armor in


confirm 18 mechanized division - early in forming stage - for sure long time untill it will be combat capable


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

Worries grow over Putin’s stability, mindset


The White House and other observers are increasingly sounding the alarm about the mindset of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seems poised to escalate his country’s war with Ukraine.Experts, a…




thehill.com





Also, the Ukrainian government is telling its citizens to not worry about declaring Russian vehicles they've captured on their taxes.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

I work nights, too much time to think sometimes. 

I was a tanker in the active army & infantry in the Guard. Then they sent me to battalion level intel analysist school that concentrated on Soviet tactics so we could recognize what they were doing. This is _not_ the Red Army we were supposed to be in fear and awe of. 

I look at the maps and none of this makes any military sense.

Hell by now the two columns - one to Kyiv & one to Kharkov, should have united south of Kyiv and be moving south to cut off the UKA fighting the separatists. The big cities bypassed or flattened by artillery or both. 

This... mess... makes no sense at all.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I work nights, too much time to think sometimes.
> 
> I was a tanker in the active army & infantry in the Guard. Then they sent me to battalion level intel analysist school that concentrated on Soviet tactics so we could recognize what they were doing. This is _not_ the Red Army we were supposed to be in fear and awe of.
> 
> ...



Agreed it makes no sense


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## Denniss (Mar 2, 2022)

There are rumors that Putin wants to install former president Janukovitch as head of a new puppet regime in Ukraine. Remember that's the the money-grabbing bastard the ukrainian people revolted against in 2014 causing him to flee into the arms of the big brother Putin.

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## Peter Gunn (Mar 2, 2022)

RE: the Russians, it comes as no surprise to me that they're apparently in over their heads, for starters I've never been overly impressed with much of their equipment or tactics. I still maintain that they were in for a RUDE awakening if they had tried anything in 1945 (yes, I believe they were in for a b!tch slapping of major proportions). They've been nothing but blustering bullying bullshitters for 80 years who've done fuc# all since WWII. This is just exposing the chimera of russian "power".

*The problem* is as already stated in this thread, with options running out and Putski-boy being forced more and more into a corner, the atomic option starts looking more attractive to a madman like him.

Like the anonymous spy in "Law Abiding Citizen" said, if you want Clyde dead, walk into his cell and put a bullet in his head, and while I find murder abhorrent, methinks that might be the best solution for putin.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, that puts the Chechens at 0 for 2, since the Ukranians wiped out a Chechen convoy near Kiev Saturday, killing it's commander General Tushayev in the process.


I‘m not taking claims from either side at face value. There’s a lot of overly positive news mixed with wishful thinking on the good side.

Meanwhile the Britain's Royal Navy and Marines are heading into the Arctic. I expect all their available SSNs are also at sea.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Russian state news accidentally publishes article saying Russia has defeated Ukraine and restored its 'historical borders'


"Ukraine has returned to Russia," the article, which ran on RIA Novosti and has since been taken down, said.




www.yahoo.com

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Ukrainian troops fighting for Garlovka - town located on land taken by russians in 2014 - this is first offensive action of Ukrainian army in this campaign

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

Twitter thread on the end of the Russian Airline Industry ...

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

One nation that cannot be pleased by the West's new interest in rearmament and protection of breakaway territories is China. Britain's budget for the Royal Navy, for instance has just jumped by 25%. UK Unveils 10-Year, $270 Billion Defense Spending If China doesn't act to take Taiwan within this decade the world's democracies will have much larger naval, air and ground forces. China was counting on global complacency and neglect of defence spending.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 2, 2022)

And all because a comedian refused to take a free flight to safety.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed it makes no sense



Chris, your statement got me thinking. I'm starting to wonder if, in Putin-world, there's a binary divide between "loyal, friendly, right-thinking (pro-Russian) Slavs" and nazis? Think about it. I'm Putin, sitting in Moscow seeing "loyal Slavs" in Donbas wanting to secede. I try to help them but Ukraine attacks me. Clearly, Ukraine is led by "non-loyal Slavs" and, looking back, the most non-loyal Slavs were those who sided with Nazi Germany in the Great Patriotic War. 

I, Putin, decide to surround Ukraine and make it clear that I want to de-nazify the country. Clearly, any "loyal Slavs" would welcome this move. As the tanks roll forward, "loyal Slavs" would strew their path with flowers and welcome the liberators with open arms, just as the "loyal Slavs" in Donbas did (and just as people welcomed the advancing Soviet army in 1944). Therefore, anyone who opposes the liberation effort cannot possibly be a "loyal Slav" and must, by default, be a nazi. This includes anyone who remains in a besieged city because, clearly, they have something to hide...and the defenders of that city, also, must be nazis.

It's a really twisted piece of ideological genocide, and it undoubtedly originates from the darkest recesses of an evil mind. However, it might account for what we're seeing on the ground with indiscriminate shelling of cities. 

The problem, of course, remains the lack of an exit strategy. The last time such an ideological war was fought, it was Nazi Germany attacking the USSR. German forces bombarded cities but that just made them harder to overwhelm (Stalingrad, anyone?). Even if Putin succeeds in replacing Zelensky with a puppet, Russian forces will still have to occupy the country because it will be impossible to rebuild the Ukrainian military. They won't be able to trust the police forces either because they're likely infested with nazi sleeper agents. 

Thus Putin has frog-marched into a never-ending insurgency against what he perceives as lingering nazi elements but which, in reality, are mostly ordinary Ukrainian citizens simply resisting an oppressive invader.

If this is even remotely the case, then we're heading for a long and really ugly period in European history.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

Another BBC update...primary school children in Moscow arrested for an anti-war protest. You really can't make up this stuff:
_
When I saw reports and photographs on Tuesday suggesting that primary school children had been arrested by police in Moscow for laying flowers at the Ukrainian embassy and holding signs saying "No to war" I refused to believe it was real.

But now it has been confirmed by the Nobel prize-winning newspaper Novaya Gazeta. In an update the newspaper says the children have since been released.

The images show the children with officers behind metal bars, perhaps in a police vehicle, and then in a police station, holding their flowers and placards.

The Kremlin appears to be taking increasingly draconian measures to try to keep a grip on its war narrative._

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

Link to that story about the school kids? I'm not finding it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The problem, of course, remains the lack of an exit strategy. The last time such an ideological war was fought, it was Nazi Germany attacking the USSR. German forces bombarded cities but that just made them harder to overwhelm (Stalingrad, anyone?). Even if Putin succeeds in replacing Zelensky with a puppet, Russian forces will still have to occupy the country because it will be impossible to rebuild the Ukrainian military. They won't be able to trust the police forces either because they're likely infested with nazi sleeper agents.
> 
> Thus Putin has frog-marched into a never-ending insurgency against what he perceives as lingering nazi elements but which, in reality, are mostly ordinary Ukrainian citizens simply resisting an oppressive invader.
> 
> If this is even remotely the case, then we're heading for a long and really ugly period in European history.



That is 100% exactly the problem, and a very scary one at that.

There is no endgame here that is good for him. He loses no matter what.

1. Even if he wins this war it will only bog the Russians down in a decades long insurgency. How long can he sustain that with Russia’s sons continually being sent home in body bags?

2. He can’t push further west. That leads to war with NATO. We all know how that will end.

3. He can’t quit and go home. It will make him look weak and he will not allow himself to lose face.

So what does he have to lose? What choice does he have?

Let’s hope the Russians take matters into their own hands.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Link to that story about the school kids? I'm not finding it.



Here ya go...



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60582327?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621f74ee980bea49f4b7ac17%26Russian%20primary%20school%20children%20detained%20for%20anti-war%20protest%262022-03-02T14%3A38%3A02.474Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:0fd480dd-93a7-474a-a7cc-5b45a7c7baa8&pinned_post_asset_id=621f74ee980bea49f4b7ac17&pinned_post_type=share

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Ukraine jets hit Russian column; Russia has used thermobarics, Ukraine military says


Startling new claims in Russia's war on Ukraine by the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

The Ukrainians have created a catchy song for the Bayraktar TB2 UAV with its own video...with an absolutely AWESOME ending:



I also love the reference to orcs in the lyrics. Hope this reaches #1 in the charts!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

If only some hacker could get this onto Soviet media.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Ukrainians have created a catchy song for the Bayraktar TB2 UAV with its own video...with an absolutely AWESOME ending:
> 
> 
> 
> Hope this reaches #1 in the charts!



Very catchy. I'm already humming Bay Raktar to myself.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

Holy chit, that's awesome! 

Love it!!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Very catchy. I'm already humming Bay Raktar to myself.



Agreed. It's definitely ear-worm material.


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## Dimlee (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Ukrainians have created a catchy song for the Bayraktar TB2 UAV with its own video...with an absolutely AWESOME ending:
> 
> 
> 
> Hope this reaches #1 in the charts!



Good lyrics, by the way. I'm sure our Polish friends can understand most words.

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## Dimlee (Mar 2, 2022)

Another grocery shop has been liberated by the Red Army Soviet Army Horde of Orcs? 
Decisive victory.
Shevchenkove, Kharkiv region.

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Another grocery shop has been liberated by the Red Army Soviet Army Horde of Orcs?
> Decisive victory.
> Shevchenkove, Kharkiv region.



this is most cultural robbery i ever seen - they even used shopping bags - did they payed eco fee for using plastic ones?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

It's June 1914 all over again, the Serbs are threatening to mobilize.









Vučić: "There is huge pressure on Serbia, it will be difficult to endure"


Latest Serbia news in English, latest Kosovo news in English, Serbian economy news, Serbian business news, Serbian politics news, Balkan regional news in English




www.b92.net












"We have died for the sake of others; they aren't against Russia, but against Serbia"


Latest Serbia news in English, latest Kosovo news in English, Serbian economy news, Serbian business news, Serbian politics news, Balkan regional news in English




www.b92.net

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's June 1914 all over again, the Serbs are threatening to mobilize.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He's just making noise - note that there are elections?

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's June 1914 all over again, the Serbs are threatening to mobilize.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


after this speach serbians may be sure that their accession request papers will be lost in Brussel's dungeons for pretty much forever.

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Another grocery shop has been liberated by the Red Army Soviet Army Horde of Orcs?
> Decisive victory.
> Shevchenkove, Kharkiv region.



Dimlee - is word "sviniosabaki" has different meaning than just combination of two? is it idiom or kind of "newspeak" ?


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 2, 2022)

Schweinhund auf Deutsch?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

Take that oligarchs, Harley-Davidson just suspended shipments to Russia. 
Now it’s SERIOUS.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

From Reuters:

_The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.

The resolution, supported by 141 of the assembly's 193 members, ended a rare emergency session called by the U.N. Security Council and as Ukrainian forces battled on in the port of Kherson in the face of air strikes and a devastating bombardment that forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee.

The text of the resolution "deplores" Russia's "aggression against Ukraine." The last time Security Council convened an emergency session of the General Assembly was in 1982, according to U.N. website.

Thirty-five members including China abstained and five countries including Russia, Syria and Belarus voted against the resolution. While General Assembly resolutions are non-binding, they carry political weight._


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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

BREAKING NEWS: Georgia has announced it wants to join the EU "immediately"....and, no, that's not the Georgia that has Atlanta as its state capital.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> From Reuters:
> 
> _The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.
> 
> ...



It says a lot about the character of the 35 countries that abstained and five that voted against the resolution. Not surprised, but it says a lot.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Here is the tally…

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

I can understand nations not wanting to vote one way or another, so as not to be involved, but check out China, Vietnam and Cuba, abstaining instead of supporting Moscow.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can understand nations not wanting to vote one way or another, so as not to be involved, but check out China, Vietnam and Cuba, abstaining instead of supporting Moscow.



Good point, but thats also them just playing the game.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Ukrainians block road to nuclear plant


Hundreds of Ukrainian nuclear power plant workers and nearby citizens on Wednesday blocked Russian troop access to a nuclear power plant, attempting to prevent Russian forces from advanci…



thehill.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 2, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Dimlee - is word "sviniosabaki" has different meaning than just combination of two? is it idiom or kind of "newspeak" ?


I heard it in 2014 or 2015 for the first time in my life. Copied from German, most probably.
What about Polish?


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## Dimlee (Mar 2, 2022)

I know, we should not underestimate the enemy, but...
I have that warm nostalgic feeling... Equipment is similar to my training in the early 1980s. Just somewhat better, my calculator was not solar powered.

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## Peter Gunn (Mar 2, 2022)

OH NO! Not a U.N. resolution! I'm sure _that'll_ make the Russians do an about face and leg it back to the motherland any minute now.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I heard it in 2014 or 2015 for the first time in my life. Copied from German, most probably.
> What about Polish?


Could it be Serbian, perhaps?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

Okay, I’m no strategist but is Uncle Vlad carrying out a cunning plan?


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## GTX (Mar 2, 2022)

Peter Gunn said:


> OH NO! Not a U.N. resolution! I'm sure _that'll_ make the Russians do an about face and leg it back to the motherland any minute now.


It might not carry any binding weight but it does convey a sense of showing how the majority of countries view this

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## The Basket (Mar 2, 2022)

You got to ask yourself one question.

What would Stalin do?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Russian troops are looting towns and banks.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

They're liberating towns ands banks. Especially banks.

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I heard it in 2014 or 2015 for the first time in my life. Copied from German, most probably.
> What about Polish?


nope - we dont have exact substitute - but we have plenty different words reserved for russians - it has something with their popularity within poles and probably vice versa

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They're liberating towns ands banks. Especially banks.


don't forgot about liquor stores - this are strategically important installations....

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I know, we should not underestimate the enemy, but...
> I have that warm nostalgic feeling... Equipment is similar to my training in the early 1980s. Just somewhat better, my calculator was not solar powered.



i wouldn't like to break your nostalgic recollections but this is exact copy of standard Wehrmacht flashlight dated around 1936-9 later models were more advanced

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It says a lot about the character of the 35 countries that abstained and five that voted against the resolution. Not surprised, but it says a lot.


I would that says a lot that China don't sided with Rusia in this voting neither in the one of the Security Council. I would say that is as near to a rebutal of the russian invasión as it could be from a close Ally.

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## J_P_C (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Ukrainians have created a catchy song for the Bayraktar TB2 UAV with its own video...with an absolutely AWESOME ending:
> 
> 
> 
> I also love the reference to orcs in the lyrics. Hope this reaches #1 in the charts!



in my opinion - solid candidate for Grammy award this year....

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## pgeno71 (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It says a lot about the character of the 35 countries that abstained and five that voted against the resolution. Not surprised, but it says a lot.


It says a lot about the United Nations as well.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I would that says a lot that China don't sided with Rusia in this voting neither in the one of the Security Council. I would say that is as near to a rebutal of the russian invasión as it could be from a close Ally.


Russia is now China's b#tch, the former cannot stand on the world stage without the latter propping it up.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 2, 2022)

The Basket said:


> You got to ask yourself one question.
> 
> What would Stalin do?


Maybe engineer a famine that kills millions of his own people. Or he could purge the party and kill millions more. A few high-profile show trials also worked for Uncle Joe.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can understand nations not wanting to vote one way or another, so as not to be involved, but check out China, Vietnam and Cuba, abstaining instead of supporting Moscow.


I had the feeling that Vietnam was warming to the USA, even looking to become a friend to the USN as a counter to the PLAN.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> A few high-profile show trials also worked for Uncle Joe.



Maybe General Gerasimov might be first in the dock?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Maybe engineer a famine that kills millions of his own people. Or he could purge the party and kill millions more. A few high-profile show trials also worked for Uncle Joe.


That's it. He was lied to. 
"Like, it was so totally not my fault, Dude"

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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Maybe General Gerasimov might be first in the dock?


Take one for the team.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 2, 2022)

Now it seems that scores of An-2 are based near the northern frontier of Ukrainia.

Yes, An-2 Colt.

It is not clear the purpoise. SOF insertion, UAV to force the AA defense to show up, UAV attack or even para drops or resupply.









Russia Appears To Be Preparing Its Ancient An-2 Biplanes For War In Ukraine


A large number of the distinctive Cold War-era utility planes have appeared at an airfield close to the Ukrainian border.




www.thedrive.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Take one for the team.



There's no "i" in team....but there is an "i" in Putin....but there's no "team" in Putin. I'm getting confused!

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## Marcel (Mar 2, 2022)

I’m quite impressed with the Ukrainian authorities. They asked China for help, maybe for them to step up to lead the negotiations. I think it’s brilliant. It flatters the Chinese, it will also help them out of the very embarrassing dilemma to either have to support Russia in the face of the whole world, or having to support Ukraine against their Russian friends. I hope the Chinese will bite. Will be one important friend less for the Russians.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Today’s crime scene photos…




































Photos: Residential areas hit by missile strikes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters 7th day


As Russia’s military assault on Ukraine continued Wednesday, images taken by photographers inside the war-torn nation show the devastation left by the bombings.




news.yahoo.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Today’s crime scene photos…
> 
> View attachment 659978
> View attachment 659979
> ...


so sad

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 2, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

I can't imagine the Canadian Armed Forces Reserves running an add like that. What do you mean it's not all eating with my mates and traveling?


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## Glider (Mar 2, 2022)

I came across this photo on a newscast. This artillery gun looks straight out of the 1950's. If this museum piece is what they are using in the assault, there cannot be much left back in Russia

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> I came across this photo on a newscast. This artillery gun looks straight out of the 1950's. If this museum piece is what they are using in the assault, there cannot be much left back in Russia


That's a T-12 Anti-Tank gun In service since 1961. 100 mm anti-tank gun T-12 - Wikipedia

Look how long that barrel is! Hardly easy to conceal.

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## Glider (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's a T-12 Anti-Tank gun In service since 1961. 100 mm anti-tank gun T-12 - Wikipedia
> 
> Look how long that barrel is! Hardly easy to conceal.


I was close, and its still a museum piece. Also that AK47 looks a little rough. I'm sure it will still work well but I would be surprised if any professional soldier of any modern army would let their weapon look that rough

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> I came across this photo on a newscast. This artillery gun looks straight out of the 1950's. If this museum piece is what they are using in the assault, there cannot be much left back in Russia
> 
> View attachment 660003



That helmet though…

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## ARTESH (Mar 2, 2022)

Just a question in my mind ...

Why they don't recycle old equipment? Instead of making war to get rid of them???

Everyday passes and I more and more understand what my 1st grade teacher told us ...

"Only bastards become politians" ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Okay, I’m no strategist but is Uncle Vlad carrying out a cunning plan?



He doesn't seem to understand that "rope-a-dope" only works in a boxing ring.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There's no "i" in team....but there is an "i" in Putin....but there's no "team" in Putin. I'm getting confused!



As we say in my family: "There's no 'I' in 'team', but there's three 'u's in 'shut the f*ck up'."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's a T-12 Anti-Tank gun In service since 1961. 100 mm anti-tank gun T-12 - Wikipedia
> 
> Look how long that barrel is! Hardly easy to conceal.



Using tail-draggers for AT guns in ... what is it ... 2022?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

In other news, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced he has opened an investigation into potential war crimes by Russia during its invasion of Ukraine.

Karim Khan wrote that in a "preliminary examination of the Situation in Ukraine, my Office had already found a reasonable basis to believe crimes within the jurisdiction of the Court had been committed, and had identified potential cases that would be admissible".

The chief prosecutor said on Monday he intended to seek authorisation from the court's presidency to open the inquiry, but a referral by the UK and 38 other nations to the court meant he now intended to launch the investigation immediately.

With 39 different countries--including all 27 members of the EU, Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland--initiating the complaint, this is the largest ever referral to the ICC. 

Not sure this will go anywhere...but it's a start.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 2, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Everyday passes and I more and more understand what my 1st grade teacher told us ...
> 
> "Only bastards become politians" ...


Of course, because people who are self-centered, arrogant, power-hungry, and amoral are often excellent in the qualities needed to amass power if they're also smart. They aren't limited by moral conventions, they aren't concerned about other commitments except when it suits their purposes, and once you remove decency, compassion, and empathy from a human mind -- you're just left with the will to win.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 2, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Just a question in my mind ... Why they don't recycle old equipment? Instead of making war to get rid of them???


The Soviet doctrine was to never throw anything away. I imagine there a thousands of T-55 tanks stored somewhere just in case the T-72s don‘t get through.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 2, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Just a question in my mind ...
> 
> Why they don't recycle old equipment? Instead of making war to get rid of them???
> 
> ...


 Artesh, I hope one day I have the pleasure of sharing a pot of tea with you.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Soviet doctrine was to never throw anything away. I imagine there a thousands of T-55 tanks stored somewhere just in case the T-72s don‘t get through.


There are. Some (many?) have been upgraded with laser rangefinder, digital fire control and new 100mm ATGM's that can be fired through the gun tube.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 2, 2022)



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## The Basket (Mar 2, 2022)

The guy with the dodgy AK has a white armband.

That signifies Russian side but from Donetsk Luhansk so he is not regular army. Prob some irregular with 2nd hand me out kit.


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## Denniss (Mar 2, 2022)

Haven't they dumped most of their T-55s into Africa and Middle East, fueling the multiple wars there in the 1960s-90s ?


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## WARSPITER (Mar 2, 2022)

Russia has several thousand T55 T72 and T80 tanks in reserve - most are T72. Having them in reserve means they have been parked up
somewhere with the latest types the are in reserve being so since around 2008 and the oldest since 1992.

The questions are have any been cannibalised for parts over time, what state of readiness are they in considering the problems that seem
to be surfacing with the already active units, and how many have had upgrades to make them currently viable ?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

_The Spanish defense minister said on Wednesday that Spain will be sending grenade launchers and machine guns to Ukraine amid Russia's ongoing invasion into the country.

"In this first shipment that will go aboard two planes, we expect to send 1,370 anti-tank grenade launchers, 700,000 rifle and machine-gun rounds, and light machine guns," Defense Minister Margarita Robles told Antena3 television, Reuters reported.

"It is very important because (the equipment) allows for a very individualized defense that can be used even by people who do not have much experience using weapons," she added._









Live coverage – Russian push for Ukrainian cities accelerates


Russian forces pressed their attacks on crowded Ukrainian cities on Wednesday after President Biden’s warned during his State of the Union address that Russian President Vladimir Putin wouldn…




thehill.com





Great weapons to help an insurgency.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

... and:

_A Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday said that the Russian economy was taking "serious blows" amid sanctions imposed by foreign governments as Moscow continues its attack on Ukraine. 

"Russia's economy is experiencing serious blows," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a call with foreign reporters, according to CNN.

"But there is a certain margin of safety, there is potential, there are some plans, work is underway," he added.

Peskov's remarks came after a question about a comment made by President Biden during Tuesday night's State of the Union address.

"Russia’s economy is reeling and Putin alone is to blame," Biden said in his speech.

[...]

Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have imposed harsh sanctions on the country. _

Read a little more, but you've got the gist of the article:









Russian economy taking ‘serious blows,’ Kremlin says


A Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday said that the Russian economy was taking “serious blows” amid sanctions imposed by foreign governments as Moscow continues its attack on Ukraine.&nbs…




thehill.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 2, 2022)

Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Reportedly Seized in Germany


Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s 512-foot Dilbar, one of the biggest yachts in the world, seized after European Union announces sanctions against him




www.yahoo.com

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## davparlr (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Back to the discussion about Russian equipment. Since the fall of the Soviet Union (and probably long before) they have always had issues with equipment.
> 
> I certainly don't think they are what they used to be, or what we thought they were. Russian doctrine was always to overpower with superior numbers. How do you think they beat the Germans in WW2?
> 
> ...


My brother was over there working on Afghan Russian supplied helicopters with Russain maintenance personnel installing western equipment into the helicopters. He reported a similar concept of Russian equipment. He said interchangeability between aircraft were problematic. He also had a laser to, I believe, set the boresight on the vehicle and the Russian was amazed at it. He told them it was theirs under contract. He said they were good guys to work with.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Reportedly Seized in Germany
> 
> 
> Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s 512-foot Dilbar, one of the biggest yachts in the world, seized after European Union announces sanctions against him
> ...



He'll be slumming on his 200-footer in the Aral Sea.

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## at6 (Mar 2, 2022)

Even if Pootface is charged with war crimes, how the hell are you going to arrest his nasty a$$?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> Even if Pootface is charged with war crimes, how the hell are you going to arrest his nasty a$$?


It can happen, for example:
Slobodan Milošević and Radovan Karadžić of Serbia.

Then there was Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania, though he didn't make it to an international court.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Reportedly Seized in Germany
> 
> 
> Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s 512-foot Dilbar, one of the biggest yachts in the world, seized after European Union announces sanctions against him
> ...



Y'know, I can't fathom the obscene amount of money a person must have to afford a $600M yacht. I mean, really, it's more than $1M per foot of length. Meanwhile, I have to be content with the rubber ducky in my bathtub. Life just isn't fair sometimes.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> Even if Pootface is charged with war crimes, how the hell are you going to arrest his nasty a$$?



By impoverishing his country and letting his people do the dirty work.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Y'know, I can't fathom the obscene amount of money a person must have to afford a $600M yacht. I mean, really, it's more than $1M per foot of length. Meanwhile, I have to be content with the rubber ducky in my bathtub. Life just isn't fair sometimes.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It can happen, for example:
> Slobodan Milošević and Radovan Karadžić of Serbia.
> 
> Then there was Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania, though he didn't make it to an international court.


It's said that it's Muammar Gaddafi's end that scares him the most.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 2, 2022)

Go get em!

'Wanted: Dead or Alive': Russian Tycoon Puts $1M Bounty on Putin's Head

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## wlewisiii (Mar 2, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Go get em!
> 
> 'Wanted: Dead or Alive': Russian Tycoon Puts $1M Bounty on Putin's Head


This reminds me that an old veteran friend at another site recycled an old soviet joke tonight:

Frustrated guy was standing in a long line to buy shoes. After three hours he said: "That's it, I'm going over to the Kremlin and kill Putin."

Forty minutes later, he was back in line. Buddy asked him: "Did you chicken out?"

"No, but the line was longer."

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## ThomasP (Mar 2, 2022)

re "sviniosabaki"

There is a ~corruption/simplification of a Bangla phrase (s'vini osaba ki) meaning literally "What is all that?" or normal usage "What is going on?" or a polite way of saying "What the Hell?". I do not know for sure if this is the only source of the word/phrase.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> It's said that it's Muammar Gaddafi's end that scares him the most.


IL Duce (and Clara) didn't have a very good end, either.

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 3, 2022)

I have learned more from this site than from watching the talking heads on the network news.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

at6 said:


> Even if Pootface is charged with war crimes, how the hell are you going to arrest his nasty a$$?


There's got to be a bunch of high ranking officers who got to be pretty uncomfortable right now. How 'bout justice and decency get raped, the generals stage a purge with the understanding Pooty will get away to some country (Switzerland?, China?). Pootface gets to keep a billion as a consolation prize for NOT incinerating the Earth.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

I would think that Putin putting a gun to his head deep in an embattled bunker would be more fitting.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

Fully agree with you GrauGeist, provided he doesn't have access to the launch codes.


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## at6 (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I would think that Putin putting a gun to his head deep in an embattled bunker would be more fitting.





SaparotRob said:


> Fully agree with you GrauGeist, provided he doesn't have access to the launch codes.


The problem is that he probably does have the codes. Why else would he keep making threats and moving weapons to Belarus? The 'LEADERSHIP" of Belarus need to realize that they too would be exterminated with the Russians. Even Putin's predecessors knew that nuclear was not a realistic option. But then what we have here is a mentally unstable animal, not a human being.

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## at6 (Mar 3, 2022)

It may sound terrible, but I would like to be the one to personally execute Putin. Probably because I grew up in a "Better Dead Than Red" era. I'm only sorry that age, health, and lack of a passport prevent me from going to hunt Russian 'rabbits".l More sporting than American rabbits since US rabbits don't shoot back.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 3, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> I have learned more from this site than from watching the talking heads on the network news.



A place like this has several advantages: the wide variety of experience of the posters, the vast array of resources all of us have different from each other and, finally, the differences in political temperaments. While we don't discuss politics, it inevitably colors the analysis that we make on these issues. Different opinions give slightly different analysis that, together, make a better overall picture than someplace (most news organizations left or right) that has all similar people working for it. 

I know I've found a great deal of value here.

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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2022)

We’re really missing input from the Russian side. Our view, or at least mine, is coloured by our western background. I really try to be objective, but it’s hard to be that in a situation like this.

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## NVSMITH (Mar 3, 2022)

-This is a link to the English translation of a Russian editorial that was posted and then removed. It seems that the "victory" isn't quite as complete as the author claims. The new world order - The Frontier Post


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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

More precision targeting, this time Borodyanka:










 Marcel
asked for inputs from the Russian side...well here are a few. First up is Abbas Gallyamov (Note: I caveat this report because he's speaking to Western media and so may be trotting out stories that they now the West wants to hear, rather than his true opinions):

_Vladimir Putin's former speechwriter, Abbas Gallyamov, worked under Putin for three years when he first became president of Russia and has described him as "illogical and irrational".

He says Putin aimed for "Russian troops to enter the border, the Ukrainians would surrender and [President] Zelensky would flee away to the USA".

He says Putin's ideologies derived from never "hearing objections or criticism" from those around him and believes he's become "the victim of his own system he created".

Gallyamov says Putin would see the sanctions put in place by the West as something he'd need "cancelling", along with Ukraine "meeting [his] demands to not join Nato".

Both would be reason enough for Putin to relax his current stance, he says._


And now Rifat Shaykhutdinov, a Russian MP speaking to national TV:

_A Russian MP has said Moscow started planning for an invasion of Ukraine 12 months ago.

"We did not prepare this, this operation spontaneously," State Duma member Rifat Shaykhutdinov said on state-controlled Channel One TV on Wednesday.

"It had been in preparation for a year, maybe more. We understood what [was happening] and had been warning them in advance," he said in remarks on Channel One's daily talk show Time Will Tell.

He suggested that Russia would have come under attack had it not invaded.

"As soon as intelligence data arrived... that we would beat them by two days by attacking, of course we are defending our citizens there above all."_


Shaykhutdinov's statement is particularly interesting as it, again, displays the typical Russian art of making claims (e.g. "Russia would have come under attack") without offering any evidence or even say who would be doing the attacking. Is he really suggesting that Ukraine would attack Russia? Or is the the NATO bogeyman again? 

Anyhoo...I offer these insights for whatever they're worth...

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## wlewisiii (Mar 3, 2022)

A very interesting and long thread with Winter War comparisons:

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## Dimlee (Mar 3, 2022)

Now they transport ammunition under the Red Cross...

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## Dimlee (Mar 3, 2022)

New official site set up by Foreign Ministry of Ukraine. In English.


https://war.ukraine.ua/

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> IL Duce (and Clara) didn't have a very good end, either.


Take your pick, Ceaușescu or Milošević. That's Putin's dilemma, even if he wanted to retire he can't, as his successor would use Putin as a chip, sending him to the Hague to reestablish relations with the west.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> New official site set up by Foreign Ministry of Ukraine. In English.
> 
> 
> https://war.ukraine.ua/


Nice. My wife is Ukrainian-Canadian and we've decided once this is over we will visit Ukraine as tourists, to spend some cash to support their businesses.

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## msxyz (Mar 3, 2022)

Marcel said:


> We’re really missing input from the Russian side. Our view, or at least mine, is coloured by our western background. I really try to be objective, but it’s hard to be that in a situation like this.


This is something I can agree on. I regularly read online media from all over the world, sometimes with the help of google translate. Those who allow open comments are particularly interesting because you get a glimpse of what people think. I can tell you that, outside of the western world, most of the comments I read, regardless of the nation, are pro Russia. This includes some developed countries as well. The reasons are different: some of these people have been directly or indirectly at the 'receiving end' of western democracy. Other had a colonial past, other yet think that western people only care about their short term profit and lack any moral compass.

It would be simplistic to label these online comments as the product of some 'keyboard warriors' or doubt their veracity because these people resides in countries which we are told they don't allow freedom of speech. It's a sentiment I've felt travelling all over the world in the years. That's also the reason why Asia, South America and Africa are slowly pivoting away from the western world, even if means falling into the embrace of China

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are supposed to commence again today. According to Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, Russia's negotiating position comprises:

Ukraine must"demilitarise" and "deNazify"
Crimea is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia
The breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic) are formally recognised

I think Ukraine might accept the second and third bullets, albeit with a lot of heartache. I don't see how Ukraine could accept a demand to "demilitarise"...there's no way ANY sovereign nation would accept such an abdication of self-defence. Frankly, I'm not even sure what "deNazify" means nor how it would be measured. I see a real risk that this is simply giving a mandate for Russia (i.e. FSB) to go after any individuals that Russia doesn't like....which, clearly, may have absolutely nothing to do with any nazi ideologies.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are supposed to commence again today. According to Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, Russia's negotiating position comprises:
> 
> Ukraine must"demilitarise" and "deNazify"
> Crimea is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia
> ...


It's an odd thing how everyone throws the term Nazis around. If there were true Nazis they would have murdered or enslaved every non-Aryan, including Ukrainians, Poles, Russians, etc. and Ukrainian's Jewish president would be dead long ago. Where does this idea of Nazis in Ukraine come from?


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## Denniss (Mar 3, 2022)

I do not believe Ukraine would accept any point of this "compromise". They had made it clear they will never give up Crimea

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> > He suggested that Russia would have come under attack had it not invaded.



The similarity to the justifications for Operation _Barbarossa_ by NaZi apologists cannot have gone unnoticed.

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## msxyz (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's an odd thing how everyone throws the term Nazis around. If there were true Nazis they would have murdered or enslaved every non-Aryan, including Ukrainians, Poles, Russians, etc. and Ukrainian's Jewish president would be dead long ago. Where does this idea of Nazis in Ukraine come from?


Azov Battalion. I would take with a pinch of salt whatever information you find about them especially these days. Some claim the image there is fake but it's possible to find other ones with similar symbolism









Azov Battalion , Donbas


Nazis in Ukraine?




www.militaryimages.net

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

msxyz said:


> I can tell you that, outside of the western world, most of the comments I read, regardless of the nation, are pro Russia.



How do you reconcile that with the UN vote which showed the nations of the world overwhelmingly against this crime?

What websites are you reading where most comments are pro-Russian?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Marcel said:


> We’re really missing input from the Russian side. Our view, or at least mine, is coloured by our western background. I really try to be objective, but it’s hard to be that in a situation like this.



I would welcome the view of Russian civilians to better understand how they feel about the entire situation, however, I don’t need to hear Putin’s drivel. His input is the same thing as the galloping squirts.

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## msxyz (Mar 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> How do you reconcile that with the UN vote which showed the nations of the world overwhelmingly against this crime?
> 
> What websites are you reading where most comments are pro-Russian?


The resolution voted was quite watered down and many smaller countries vote always pro west for fear of economic repercussions. 

Look at the comment section of this Indian online newspaper (it's in English so you don't need to translate) Russia Ukraine Latest News: US recalls cable saying India, UAE in 'Russia’s camp': Report | India News - Times of India The article also claims that US put pressure on India's UN ambassador to vote along with the west. India, China and Pakistan abstained from the vote, which is quite interesting because these three countries don't go along very well for various reasons and yet they're in the same camp on this.

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## EwenS (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's an odd thing how everyone throws the term Nazis around. If there were true Nazis they would have murdered or enslaved every non-Aryan, including Ukrainians, Poles, Russians, etc. and Ukrainian's Jewish president would be dead long ago. Where does this idea of Nazis in Ukraine come from?


Perhaps because in the early days of the German invasion of the USSR in 1941, elements of the Ukrainian population saw the Germans as their liberators from the Soviet oppression of the previous 20 years. Turned out they had just swapped one oppressor for another!

But there were enough anti-Soviet recruits of Ukrainian origin (from whatever motive from genuine political support for the Nazi regime, to hatred of the Soviets, to simply try to save themselves from being worked to death) to form an SS Division








14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Galician) - Wikipedia
 






en.m.wikipedia.org





The way that borders have moved over the centuries in Eastern Europe, the ethnic groups have mixed so complicating the politics of today that the likes of Putin try to exploit. We saw the same thing happen with the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. That led to “ethnic cleansing” as different ethnic groups claimed what they saw as there “homelands” with the result that we now have 7 separate states in that region.

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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I would welcome the view of Russian civilians to better understand how they feel about the entire situation, however, I don’t need to hear Putin’s drivel. His input is the same thing as the galloping squirts.


Exactly. I meant the common man on the street (or of course a WW2 aircraft nut  )

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

EwenS said:


> Perhaps because in the early days of the German invasion of the USSR in 1941, elements of the Ukrainian population saw the Germans as their liberators from the Soviet oppression of the previous 20 years.


Yes, my Ukrainian-Canadian wife's great uncle served in the SS. The family lore is that he was coerced, but what else is he going to say. He had the SS tattoo and all, wasn't allowed to emigrate to Canada but the US took him in. But that's history, and I firmly believe that you get no credit and no blame for the actions of those who came before you. I'm British-born, I imagine many in my history did some awful things too. That doesn't reflect on me or the British people today. So, why do people say there are Nazis in Ukraine in 2022?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _He says Putin's ideologies derived from never "hearing objections or criticism" from those around him and believes he's become "the victim of his own system he created"._



In this I would agree very much.

If it's true that the invasion was planned during a year (which I doubt) someone have to lose his job.



Thumpalumpacus said:


> How do you reconcile that with the UN vote which showed the nations of the world overwhelmingly against this crime?
> 
> What websites are you reading where most comments are pro-Russian?



One thing is the goverment and quite another the people. Even in full democracies you can have one diverting a lot from the other about the same topic.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> How do you reconcile that with the UN vote which showed the nations of the world overwhelmingly against this crime?
> 
> What websites are you reading where most comments are pro-Russian?



There is a difference between what the government and what the people think.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yes, my Ukrainian-Canadian wife's great uncle served in the SS. The family lore is that he was coerced, but what else is he going to say. He had the SS tattoo and all, wasn't allowed to emigrate to Canada but the US took him in. But that's history, and I firmly believe that you get no credit and no blame for the actions of those who came before you. In British-born, I imagine many in my history did some awful things too. That doesn't reflect on me or the British people today. So, why do people say there are Nazis in Ukraine in 2022?



Well, there are people with nazi ideologies in pretty much every European nation, as well as the US, Canada and elsewhere. The Azov Battalion is one well-known example and it clearly contains some repulsive characters among its membership. Since that unit was employed in the Donbas, I'm wondering if there were some localized atrocities committed by its members, and it's those actions that have stoked Putin's ire. Again, that doesn't justify indiscriminate shelling of civilians...but, equally, units like the Azov Battalion shouldn't have any role in any Government's defensive or special forces capabilities.

The challenge is where do we draw the line between someone who's simply right-wing and someone who's a nazi? The difference may not always be clear, particularly since there's a continuum and people may move (relatively) left or right on individual topics. In particular, I fear any attempt to "de-nazify" based on Russian criteria will simply lead to anyone who disagrees with Putin being labelled as a "nazi" with no due process being followed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is a difference between what the government and what the people think.



Of course. That's why I asked him to reconcile the difference. He is, after all, the one perusing those peoples' opinions.

I should hope it's obvious by now that I'm not so naive as to think that a government directly reflects the feelings of its subjects. But clearly more than three-quarters of the world's governments feel comfortable denouncing this invasion, and that includes democracies from every continent (whose people could hold that government accountable if it spoke out of turn).

So I was asking why he thinks that is. Thanks.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is a difference between what the government and what the people think.



There are also differences between what people think. Some will be strongly supportive of Putin while others will vehemently disagree with him. I'm afraid trying to capture "what the Russian people think" will simply result in a broad spectrum ranging from "restore the USSR" to "remove Putin and join NATO"....and all points in between. 

I also expect there'd be a standard distribution of the population between those polar opposites...with the bulk of the populace either slightly agreeing with Putin but having reservations about his approach, while others slightly disagree with him but still would like to see Russia better recognized on the world stage.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course. That's why I asked him to reconcile the difference. He is, after all, the one perusing those peoples' opinions.
> 
> I should hope it's obvious by now that I'm not so naive as to think that a government directly reflects the feelings of its subjects. But clearly more than three-quarters of the world's governments feel comfortable denouncing this invasion, and that includes democracies from every continent (whose people could hold that government accountable if it spoke out of turn).
> 
> So I was asking why he thinks that is. Thanks.



I don’t think you are naive at all. I think you are very well spoken and level headed, I was simply adding to.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There are also differences between what people think. Some will be strongly supportive of Putin while others will vehemently disagree with him. I'm afraid trying to capture "what the Russian people think" will simply result in a broad spectrum ranging from "restore the USSR" to "remove Putin and join NATO"....and all points in between.
> 
> I also expect there'd be a standard distribution of the population between those polar opposites...with the bulk of the populace either slightly agreeing with Putin but having reservations about his approach, while others slightly disagree with him but still would like to see Russia better recognized on the world stage.



Agreed, what you just described will be found in any country. It’s no different here in the US. You have extremes on both sides of everything who are the loudest, but the vast majority probably lie somewhere in the middle of every situation/topic/decision.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> If it's true that the invasion was planned during a year (which I doubt) someone have to lose his job.



Actually, that wouldn't surprise me at all. Having been a military planner at the joint level, I have some concept for what it takes to pull off an operation of this scale. There are a tremendous number of moving pieces and it could easily take a year to do that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

And its those extremes on either side why we had to ban political discussion. I’m very encouraged by this thread, and I thank everyone for how well it has gone (of course the fact that we all agree on this topic helps…).

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## ARTESH (Mar 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> A place like this has several advantages: the wide variety of experience of the posters, the vast array of resources all of us have different from each other and, finally, the differences in political temperaments. While we don't discuss politics, it inevitably colors the analysis that we make on these issues. Different opinions give slightly different analysis that, together, make a better overall picture than someplace (most news organizations left or right) that has all similar people working for it.
> 
> I know I've found a great deal of value here.








Unfortunately I couldn't find a "Huge Bacon" for you, here you have a "huge like" medal, first class in cement.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:




Had a friend in Australia send me this, I had already done the research and knew this, but he confirmed...

I've tried several times to compose a proper reply, but I honestly don't know what to say in reply.

Seriously guys, I've known him for like 26 years and he's always been level headed and pretty well informed.

But this sh*t totally blew me away.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

I have a couple of similar relationships. A heart felt sigh of commiseration.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

Life's too short to entertain the delusional. I reckon if I were in your shoes my best reply would be complete radio silence going forward.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 3, 2022)

11 sites??!! I knew about the five, but 6 more. Wow. I'm still hoping they can liberate the Sandy Hook kids.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:
> View attachment 660059
> 
> Had a friend in Australia send me this, I had already done the research and knew this, but he confirmed...
> ...



I have a friend who believes this as well. It’s scary because he is an educated person. Prior to a few years ago he was not so “crazy”, and something just switched in him. He is a “Q” now. Needless to say our friendship us suffering.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

Entertaining the delusional is what I try to do here.

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## ARTESH (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Soviet doctrine was to never throw anything away. I imagine there a thousands of T-55 tanks stored somewhere just in case the T-72s don‘t get through.


Not only Soviets, but also the US have lots of old planes, and possibly lots of other equipment, grounded and stored ... 

If they don't fit for museums, or they don't want to sell them, why they keep them???

To get rid of them in proxy wars??? Or they stored them, so they can sell them more expensive, when anyone ran out of materials???

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## ARTESH (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:
> View attachment 660059


Best answer would be:

Mate, that's too long! And I don't have time to read it. Good night.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I have a friend who believes this as well. It’s scary because he is an educated person. Prior to a few years ago he was not so “crazy”, and something just switched in him. He is a “Q” now.


Yeah, I've known several people who buy into that "Q" thing and I've tried telling them on several occasions that this fantasy bullsh*t is distracting them from the real picture.

But they won't have it. 😠

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Not only Soviets, but also the US have lots of old planes, and possibly lots of other equipment, grounded and stored ...
> 
> If they don't fit for museums, or they don't want to sell them, why they keep them???
> 
> To get rid of them in proxy wars??? Or they stored them, so they can sell them more expensive, when anyone ran out of materials???


I wouldn't be surprised if a lot that equipment was lost. Shipping records misfiled.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Not only Soviets, but also the US have lots of old planes, and possibly lots of other equipment, grounded and stored ...
> 
> If they don't fit for museums, or they don't want to sell them, why they keep them???
> 
> To get rid of them in proxy wars??? Or they stored them, so they can sell them more expensive, when anyone ran out of materials???


As U.S. equipment gets dated, they're offered to National Guard units and/or to smaller nations.

If they're beyond a certain age or battlefield fitness, they'll end up in a storage depot for eventual surplus sale or scrapping.

Most aging aircraft end up at a facility in the desert, ships go to one of several locations to be "mothballed" and tanks/vehicles are stored in various storage facilities.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 3, 2022)

And if it gets too old and worn out, they issue it to the Marines.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And if it gets too old and worn out, they issue it to the Marines.


lmao!

I was just thinking about how I should have mentioned that!

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## msxyz (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, there are people with nazi ideologies in pretty much every European nation, as well as the US, Canada and elsewhere. The Azov Battalion is one well-known example and it clearly contains some repulsive characters among its membership. Since that unit was employed in the Donbas, I'm wondering if there were some localized atrocities committed by its members, and it's those actions that have stoked Putin's ire. Again, that doesn't justify indiscriminate shelling of civilians...but, equally, units like the Azov Battalion shouldn't have any role in any Government's defensive or special forces capabilities.


Well, according to various sources, the civil war raging in Donbass since 2014 claimed some 13000-14000 lives. The hatred between ethnic groups must be quite strong.

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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2022)

Seems like the Russians are using clusterbombs against civilian targets.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if a lot that equipment was lost. Shipping records misfiled.


I know for a fact that a Russian sub was sold for a Bond story cause I saw it in the film.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And if it gets too old and worn out, they issue it to the Marines.


With a box of crayons.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Seems like the Russians are using clusterbombs against civilian targets.



No comrade. That is all lies!


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 3, 2022)

An amphibious landing may be on the way to Odesa.









Russian Amphibious Assault Ship Armada Seen Off Crimea As Fears Of Odessa Beach Landing Grow


While the huge Russian column north of Kyiv has stalled, a major assault on the Black Sea port city of Odessa might soon begin.




www.thedrive.com


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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> With a box of crayons.


They do like to snack.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 3, 2022)

NVSMITH said:


> -This is a link to the English translation of a Russian editorial that was posted and then removed. It seems that the "victory" isn't quite as complete as the author claims. The new world order - The Frontier Post


That editorial is scary. It brings echos from the past.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Entertaining the delusional is what I try to do here.



Well I, for one, feel thoroughly entertained!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

msxyz said:


> Well, according to various sources, the civil war raging in Donbass since 2014 claimed some 13000-14000 lives. The hatred between ethnic groups must be quite strong.



As you note, it was a civil war and they're always bloody. No doubt there were atrocities on both sides. It's clear that neither side abided by the Minsk accords. It's also pretty clear that Russia was stoking the fire by providing arms and undercover forces to implement the insurrection in the first place. Unfortunately, neither side seemed interested in actually negotiating a settlement. That still doesn't justify what we're seeing today.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And if it gets too old and worn out, they issue it to the Marines.



There's no point giving nice things to the Marines 'cos they'd only break them.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That editorial is scary. It brings echos from the past.


It had a lot of wishful thinking I thought.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 3, 2022)

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich will sell Chelsea soccer club and donate proceeds to victims in Ukraine


Abramovich, who was once Russia's richest man, said he will set up a foundation where net proceeds from the sale will be donated.




www.cbsnews.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It had a lot of wishful thinking I thought.


Sure but you make some changes in the names and could pass for a 90 year old Brown shirt editorial

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:
> View attachment 660059
> 
> Had a friend in Australia send me this, I had already done the research and knew this, but he confirmed...
> ...



Yeah...I feel for you. I can't get my head around this kind of stupidity. The most frustrating part is that any attempt to show how their "knowledge" is incorrect is merely met with the "that's fake news" statement.

However...just to try and bring some common sense to this ridiculous notion, it should be noted that if you bomb a bio lab, then the bio weapons get released into the atmosphere. Why are there no reports of Russian troops or Ukrainian civilians suffering from the effects of these bio weapons? Why is Putin not crowing about taking out these labs? 

I know there's no way to convince these conspiracy theorists that they're mistaken...but the lack of basic critical thinking skills simply astounds me.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> ....tanks/vehicles are stored in various storage facilities.


I believe one place the tanks and vehicles go to is the Sierra Army Depot (SIAD). Sierra Army Depot - Wikipedia















Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) | Defense Media Network


TACOM LCMC Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) plays a critical role in partnerships with organizations like AMC’s Responsible Reset Task Force (R2TF).




www.defensemedianetwork.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

More pleas from Russia to end the war:

_Russia's second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, is calling for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

In a statement on its website, the company said it was concerned by the "tragic events in Ukraine" and supported the negotiations to end the conflict.

Its board called for "the immediate cessation of the armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through the negotiation process and through diplomatic means".

The company is thought to be one of the first major Russian firms to speak out against the invasion._

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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No comrade. That is all lies!


Indeed


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## Marcel (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...I feel for you. I can't get my head around this kind of stupidity. The most frustrating part is that any attempt to show how their "knowledge" is incorrect is merely met with the "that's fake news" statement.
> 
> However...just to try and bring some common sense to this ridiculous notion, it should be noted that if you bomb a bio lab, then the bio weapons get released into the atmosphere. Why are there no reports of Russian troops or Ukrainian civilians suffering from the effects of these bio weapons? Why is Putin not crowing about taking out these labs?
> 
> I know there's no way to convince these conspiracy theorists that they're mistaken...but the lack of basic critical thinking skills simply astounds me.


They are missing the art of critical thinking. A good read for anyone who wants to improve himself in that area https://cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/1990/01/22165233/p50.pdf


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe one place the tanks and vehicles go to is the Sierra Army Depot (SIAD). Sierra Army Depot - Wikipedia
> 
> View attachment 660061
> 
> ...


SAD is about an hour and a half drive east of me, here in Northern California.

Several local law enforcement agencies have received vehicles from them like HumVees and even a South African Army Casper (armored car).

There's quite a few others across the U.S., too.


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## GTX (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:
> View attachment 660059
> 
> Had a friend in Australia send me this, I had already done the research and knew this, but he confirmed...
> ...


Total batshit crazy! The sad thing is that they believe the delusional crap.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe one place the tanks and vehicles go to is the Sierra Army Depot (SIAD). Sierra Army Depot - Wikipedia
> 
> View attachment 660061
> 
> ...


This reminds me of a Cal Worthington commercial. 
“If you’re looking for an auto or a tank,
GO SEE CAL!
If you’re looking for an auto or a tank,
GO SEE CAL!……
If you buy a tank, I’ll eat a bug!”

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 3, 2022)

I so remember those commercials growing up!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I so remember those commercials growing up!



You grew up? When did that happen? 

Must've been while I wasn't watching. 

For the record, I firmly believe that growing up is vastly overrated.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

A small glimmer of hope?

Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak says the sides have reached an understanding on "jointly securing humanitarian corridors to evacuate peaceful civilians, and also on supplying medicine and food to the places of the most fierce fighting".

He adds there is a possibility, "I stress, with a possibility of a temporary ceasefire for the evacuation period in certain sectors".

The Ukrainian report on the talks jives with comments by the Russian presidential aide and former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky who told news channel Rossiya 24 it was possible to find mutual understanding on some points of negotiation - "the main issue that we resolved today is the issue of saving people, civilians who found themselves in the zone of military clashes".

He says the two defence ministries have agreed a format for maintaining humanitarian corridors "for the exit of the civilian population [and] on the possible temporary cessation of hostilities in the sector of the humanitarian corridor for the period of the exit of the civilian population".

"I think that this is significant progress," he adds.

News agency Reuters is reporting that the next round of talks will take place at the start of next week.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> With a box of crayons.


Whoa, Chris, not so fast! They may be Uncle Sam's Misguided Children, but they ain't all dummies. Three of the top five in my fast track Avionics "A" School class were Marines, one of them female, and our class was only 15% Marine and 5% female. All the Marines were in the top quarter of the class. Semper Fi where it's due. Good thing, because they had to endure hand-me-down equipment.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Whoa, Chris, not so fast! They may be Uncle Sam's Misguided Children, but they ain't all dummies. Three of the top five in my fast track Avionics "A" School class were Marines, one of them female, and our class was only 15% Marine and 5% female. All the Marines were in the top quarter of the class. Semper Fi where it's due. Good thing, because they had to endure hand-me-down equipment.



Chris never identified what the Marines would DO with the crayons...but one suspects it has little to do with making pretty pictures. Rapid insertion up an adversary's nostril, for example, is a very Marine-like thing to do with a crayon...they probably learned the trick in kindergarten.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Several local law enforcement agencies have received vehicles from them like HumVees and even a South African Army Casper (armored car).


The militarization of policing is a problem. People should join the police for the same reason they want to become a nurse or firefighter, to help people, not to play soldier.

We had a wave of police militarization here in Canada in the 2010s, mostly about replacing friendly, bright paint on cruisers to black and greys, and officer's uniforms changing from light blues to blacks. But we also saw municipal police buying armoured vehicles for that one riot every decade that gets out of hand. Everyone wants to feel like they're in Starship Troopers I suppose.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Chris never identified what the Marines would DO with the crayons...but one suspects it has little to do with making pretty pictures. Rapid insertion up an adversary's nostril, for example, is a very Marine-like thing to do with a crayon...they probably learned the trick in kindergarten.


I'm told a Crayola Kindergarten Special fits neatly in the pitot tube of a MiG. Preflight test of the pitot heat melts and cures it in the Russian winter, and by launch time it's polimerized and invisible. How's your accelerate-stop distance with full ordnance on a wet runway? "Roll the equipment, Comrade!"

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## special ed (Mar 3, 2022)

Up until at least about 20 years ago, the government published a GSA surplus list. The top of the pecking order was other Govt agencies, then state agencies, then counties within the states. There was apparently proof needed of a requirement. Terrebonne Parish (county) in Louisiana had two L-20 Beavers, three DUKW amphib trucks, and a couple of deuce and a half. The aircraft were used for search over the swamps for aircraft down. The trucks were handy during hurricane relief. The Louisiana Dept of Wildlife and fisheries received two YO-3As which they used to catch illegal shrimpers. While I was working for Kodak I serviced a processor at the NASA Stenis rocket test center and was shown a piece of equipment which filled a 9 by 12 foot room. The dept head got it from GSA surplus. The only thing it could do was make perfect black & white 8" by 10" photo prints. It was one of two built for NASA and used in California. There was no solid state electronics, all vacuum tubes. Once calibrated, it had to stay powered on constantly. I was shown some prints from film exposed in various lighting and full of shadows and hidden detail. When printed by this machine, the exposure for the print compensated so that it looked as if it were photoed outside on a sunny day. I was completely impressed with this piece of equipment as at the time I had a darkroom in my garage. Seeing it had a very limited use in the late 80s, I asked why he had it. His response was, "I just couldn't let this machine be scrapped."

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Whoa, Chris, not so fast! They may be Uncle Sam's Misguided Children, but they ain't all dummies. Three of the top five in my fast track Avionics "A" School class were Marines, one of them female, and our class was only 15% Marine and 5% female. All the Marines were in the top quarter of the class. Semper Fi where it's due. Good thing, because they had to endure hand-me-down equipment.



M.A.R.I.N.E

My Ass Rides In Navy Equipment

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The militarization of policing is a problem. People should join the police for the same reason they want to become a nurse or firefighter, to help people, not to play soldier.
> 
> We had a wave of police militarization here in Canada in the 2010s, mostly about replacing friendly, bright paint on cruisers to black and greys, and officer's uniforms changing from light blues to blacks. But we also saw municipal police buying armoured vehicles for that one riot every decade that gets out of hand. Everyone wants to feel like they're in Starship Troopers I suppose.


"Militarization" of LEO has been a response to a part of society that increasingly glorifies "gang culture" and disregards the laws of society.
A good point would be several years ago, when gunmen in Los Angeles robbed a bank and then battled police in a running street fight. The police were under equipped and out-gunned by the robbers and it took a tremendous effort to stop them - the police were armed with revolvers and shotguns versus the robber's Soviet manufactured weapons and body armor. That event made LAPD upgrade to better equipment to better protect their officers and in turn, provide the ability to s

Tehama County Sheriff's Casper has only been used on a few occasions, all were incidents where a gunman was barricaded and battling deputies, requiring a SWAT response.

Shasta County Sheriff's HumVees are used for Search and Rescue or accessing the many illegal marijuana plantations that pop up in remote areas of the county.

City of Redding's SWAT armored car, on the other hand, was special ordered from Ireland.

Holding hands and offering hugs and cookies to today's bad people is not going to stop them from shooting a cop (or a 13 year old girl) in the face.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 3, 2022)

special ed said:


> Up until at least about 20 years ago, the government published a GSA surplus list. The top of the pecking order was other Govt agencies, then state agencies, then counties within the states.





special ed said:


> Seeing it had a very limited use in the late 80s, I asked why he had it. His response was, "I just couldn't let this machine be scrapped."


Just before I reported to my Permanent Duty Station NAS, a destroyer squadron was disestablished at the NavBase downtown, and a little later a sub squadron followed (old diesel boats), resulting in a major downsize of the Ships Repair Department. Suddenly all kinds of machine tools and other paraphernalia appeared on the GSA surplus list, so our E7 Chief OIC went downtown on a shopping spree. He just couldn't let that stuff get away and scored a lathe, a small milling machine, two drillpresses, a table saw, a bandsaw, a radial arm saw, a joiner, two sanders, a bending brake, and several lots of tools and cutters, all in top condition. These promptly got installed in a large open space in our shop that the Air Station CO had been considering taking away from us and moving another activity into.
One hand washes the other. We got to keep the space and the machinery in return for doing odd fabricating jobs for the air station and other tenant commands in lieu of having them let out to contract. We built a cockpit procedures trainer for the SH3 helicopter after NavTraDevCen refused to supply one. Also, various bulletin boards, display cases, directional signs, and fixtures for various shops around the base. But mostly we did "cumshaw", using it for our own personal projects and vehicle maintenance or making retirement plaques for officers and chiefs.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Lets try not to get too far off track here gentlemen. It’s ok to get off topic, but things such as police, gang culture, etc. really don’t have anything to do with the war in Ukraine. These topics open the door up to other things.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Otherwise gentleman, carry on. I really enjoy the fact that we are peacefully carrying on this discussion for 52 pages without any real moderation. It makes me think some of us are adults after all.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Zelensky: 'The end of the world has arrived'


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday issued a dire appeal for help as Russia's attacks across the country intensified.




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

France's Macron thinks 'the worst is yet to come' in Ukraine after talking with Putin, reports say


A senior French official said Putin was determined to carry out the ongoing war in Ukraine until "the end."




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Video shows crowd of Ukrainian civilians blocking Russian army from reaching Europe's biggest nuclear power plant


The mayor of Enerhodar shared drone footage of vast crowds blocking the route to Russian soldiers seen advancing in the distance.




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Sorry, this did give me a chuckle.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Ok…

Not a problem. More jobs for our aerospace industry to develop and build our own.









Russia is stopping rocket engine sales to the US and their space chief said, ‘Let them fly on something else, their broomsticks’


On Thursday, Roscosmos also announced that it will no longer collaborate with Germany on research at the International Space Station.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

From an investment perspective, Russian debt is now solidly in "junk" territory. S&P just downgraded Russia's credit score from "BB+" to "CCC-" because of the high risk of Russia defaulting on loans.

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## The Basket (Mar 3, 2022)

Ukraine only hope is that the Soviet economy tanks before they do.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

msxyz said:


> Well, according to various sources, the civil war raging in Donbass since 2014 claimed some 13000-14000 lives. The hatred between ethnic groups must be quite strong.



"Civil war" ... with one side backed by a foreign power.

Your spin is discernible.

I'd have a problem with a neighbor who tried to seize part of my back yard, too.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It had a lot of wishful thinking I thought.



Not to mention a bunch of historical mistakes and misrepresentations.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> This reminds me of a Cal Worthington commercial.
> “If you’re looking for an auto or a tank,
> GO SEE CAL!
> If you’re looking for an auto or a tank,
> ...



You missed the little bouncy ball, damn it!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

I forgot all about that. I do remember the elephant, though.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Estonian Cargo Ship Sinks After Possible Mine Strike Near Odesa


An Estonian-owned small cargo ship sunk in the Black Sea earlier today with conflicting reports that...




www.maritime-executive.com


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 3, 2022)

For all who think that Putin is a madman, I say think again. He is doing exactly what he has intended to do since he gained power. That this invasion war military exercise / peacekeeping mission is not going as planned is because of two reasons. First, his army is not nearly as well trained as we have been led to believe all these years, and second, Zelensky didn't hop on the first plane to the West the minute missiles started dropping. He still wields the oil/gas weapon over Europe and the US, which is a major reason, besides the nuclear threat, that he expects to prevail.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Holding hands and offering hugs and cookies to today's bad people is not going to stop them from shooting a cop


That’s hardly what I was suggesting. Here in Canada gun crime is closer to the UK than US.


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## The Basket (Mar 3, 2022)

Putin will certainly prevail. He can throw enough tanks and men and they actually seem to be doing stuff now.

Question is now what? Any occupation force will cost money and he is losing money as the Russian economy tanks.

What are they thinking or did they ever think? Any victory will be a very bitter one and certainly not worth it.

Maybe Ukraine will be destroyed but it still will have a population who will not capitulate and NATO will get bigger and bigger. Even the Germans are going to rearm. It's all gone wrong and the oligarchy will have there luxury taken away from them. A sensible man will run around screaming in horror for the fate that awaits Russia. It will be awful.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Putin will certainly prevail. He can throw enough tanks and men and they actually seem to be doing stuff now.
> 
> Question is now what?


The plan is to achieve a fait accompli. The Russians take all of Ukraine, set up a puppet governor and then stand down and then offer to negotiate with the West. The globe is run by money not morals, so deals will be made, and within six months our interests will be elsewhere.


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## Dimlee (Mar 3, 2022)

msxyz said:


> Well, according to various sources, the civil war raging in Donbass since 2014 claimed some 13000-14000 lives. The hatred between ethnic groups must be quite strong.


Could you be so kind as to name those "ethnic groups". 
1 - ?
2- ?
3 - ? 
etc.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Could you be so kind as to name those "ethnic groups".
> 1 - ?
> 2- ?
> 3 - ?
> etc.


Isn't that ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Isn’t this obvious, or are you trying to make a point?


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## wlewisiii (Mar 3, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Isn't that ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Isn’t this obvious, or are you trying to make a point?



I think that's Dimlee's point...Russians and Ukrainians are all ethnically Eastern Slavs. 

The civil war in eastern Ukraine wasn't an ethnic war. It was a nationalistic and ideological war. Putin issuing Russian passports to residents of Donbas, as he did last year, clearly indicates it was nationalistic and ideological. You'll also note that Putin didn't shy away from identifying religious and ethnic differences in previous conflicts (Chechnya, anyone?).

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## The Basket (Mar 3, 2022)

Destroy Ukraine and then forget?

No. No forget. Poland I doubt will forget or the Baltic States or Finland.

The sanctions will roll on and within 6 months Russia will be back in the Medieval age. They will be bartering a chicken for a gallon of petrol.

Money means nothing in the face of war. The oligarchy will have their yachts towed away and even that Chelsea guy is feeling a squeeze.

No. It will not be forgotten.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The plan is to achieve a fait accompli. The Russians take all of Ukraine, set up a puppet governor and then stand down and then offer to negotiate with the West. The globe is run by money not morals, so deals will be made, and within six months our interests will be elsewhere.



But Russia can't stand down, even after a puppet governor is installed. Putin wants Ukraine to be disarmed...which means the puppet governor can only be maintained in power by having Russian forces in Ukraine.

This is the supreme irony of Putin's actions. He didn't want Ukraine joining NATO because it would have placed another NATO nation on Russia's borders. However, by eradicating Ukraine as we know it, he's essentially doing EXACTLY that...pushing the boundary of Russia out to touch the NATO-nation borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and greatly increasing the extent of the border with Romania. 

I do wonder what Moldova will do next. That country has seen a very recent (2020) sweep away from a pro-Russian stance to pro-European. I wonder if Putin might next seek to annex Moldova...but, again, all he's doing is extending "new-USSR's" borders with NATO.

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## Dimlee (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s that ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians? Isn’t this obvious, or are you trying to make a point?


I'm trying to get a clear answer from another forum member.
But since you asked... Some facts from 2014.
The 1st person killed by pro-Russian separatists or by the Russian secret service in Crimea was ethnic Qirimlar (Crimean Tatar).
The 2nd person killed by the Russian aggressors in Crimea was an ethnic Russian who was a Ukrainian citizen who served in Ukrainian Forces.
The first casualties on the Ukrainian side near Sloviansk in April 2014 were ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians, SBU officers. They were ambushed by the so-called "Girkin" group that arrived from the Russian territory. That group was mostly Russian, but there were several ethnic Ukrainians as well.
The first active volunteer "battalion" on the Ukrainian side consisted of both ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians, mostly inhabitants of the Donetsk region. Their first commander was ethnic Russian.
The first leader of the so-called DNR was a Russian citizen and then a local resident with a Ukrainian surname took over.
The first leader of the so-called LNR was (probably) ethnic Russian and the second one was ethnic Ukrainian.
I can go on and on.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s hardly what I was suggesting. Here in Canada gun crime is closer to the UK than US.



And this has what to do with the war in Ukraine?

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## Dimlee (Mar 3, 2022)

A nuclear power plant near Zaporizhzhia is being shelled by RF forces right now. Some parts are on fire.


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## ARTESH (Mar 3, 2022)

Not sure about reliability of this, but She is Ukrainian, a great artist and one of my friends ...







English translation:

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## ARTESH (Mar 3, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> A nuclear power plant near Zaporizhzhia is being shelled by RF forces right now. Some parts are on fire.



Chernobyl wasn't enough??? 

Do they want a second version of that???

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Not sure about reliability of this, but She is Ukrainian, a great artist and one of my friends ...
> 
> View attachment 660095
> 
> ...


Has this been verified? It is disturbing.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But Russia can't stand down, even after a puppet governor is installed. Putin wants Ukraine to be disarmed...which means the puppet governor can only be maintained in power by having Russian forces in Ukraine.
> 
> This is the supreme irony of Putin's actions. He didn't want Ukraine joining NATO because it would have placed another NATO nation on Russia's borders. However, by eradicating Ukraine as we know it, he's essentially doing EXACTLY that...pushing the boundary of Russia out to touch the NATO-nation borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and greatly increasing the extent of the border with Romania.
> 
> I do wonder what Moldova will do next. That country has seen a very recent (2020) sweep away from a pro-Russian stance to pro-European. I wonder if Putin might next seek to annex Moldova...but, again, all he's doing is extending "new-USSR's" borders with NATO.





Soundgarden said:


> Whatsoever I've feared has come to life
> And whatsoever I've fought off became my life
> Just when everyday seemed to greet me with a smile
> Sunspots have faded, now I'm doing time
> ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

A report I read earlier:


_
Vindman said he believes that the Russian leader made a series of miscalculations when he decided to invade the former Soviet nation one week ago.

"I don't think he cared that much, but that was another major miscalculation. You make decisions based on assumptions. A fundamental assumption was that the Ukrainians would roll over. A fundamental assumption was that the West would be weak in its response," Vindman told podcast host Jane Coaston.

"A fundamental assumption would be that the Russian population would take it because security services and repression of dissent," he continued. "Those are three massive, massive miscalculations."

[...]

Vindman said that Putin had a "deep misunderstanding" of the West's willingness to defend its interests and a misunderstanding of the ability of Ukraine to defend itself.

"And all of these things coming together into a huge, huge trap for Vladimir Putin. He's consolidated the entire free world against him in condemnation and inaction," he said.
_









Vindman: This is the ‘beginning of the end’ for Putin


Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman said that he believes the Russian invasion into Ukraine marked the “beginning of the end” for Russian President Vladimir Putin as casualties from…




thehill.com





The Law of Unintended Consequences is called a "law" for a reason.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 3, 2022)

If nothing else, Fuhrer Putin has helped unit a lot of people.

I just want to know who is the brilliant artillery person that thinks its a good idea to shell a nuclear power plant.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> If nothing else, Fuhrer Putin has helped unit a lot of people.
> 
> I just want to know who is the brilliant artillery person that thinks its a good idea to shell a nuclear power plant.


Yeah...they didn't really think that one through.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 3, 2022)

Denying resources to the enemy.
Like setting the oil fields on fire in Quwait.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Is this madman trying to cause a massive dirty bomb?









Live updates: Johnson to seek UN Security Council meeting


The office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he will seek an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting after Russian troops in Ukraine attacked a nuclear power plant and sparked a fire. Johnson's office says he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the early hours of the...




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

The plant is on fire. Someone needs to take him out now. He is about to cause a nuclear disaster. 









Putin likens Western sanctions to war as Russian assault traps Ukrainian civilians


Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western sanctions were akin to war as his forces pressed their assault on Ukraine on Saturday for a 10th day and the IMF warned the conflict would have a "severe impact" on the global economy.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 3, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Not only Soviets, but also the US have lots of old planes, and possibly lots of other equipment, grounded and stored ...
> 
> If they don't fit for museums, or they don't want to sell them, why they keep them???
> 
> To get rid of them in proxy wars??? Or they stored them, so they can sell them more expensive, when anyone ran out of materials???



One thing us Americans use our boneyards for is spare parts.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 3, 2022)

Today’s crime scene photos.

Another innocent child lost…
























https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2022/03/03/ukrainian-father-sobs-by-sons-body-as-putins-brutality-continues/amp/

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 3, 2022)

From Janes






Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?


Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...



www.janes.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 3, 2022)

I think this isn’t indicative of the VKS. Putin thought a small show of force was all that was needed. He sent in reservists expecting a training exercise. He kept the real stuff ready in case NATO did stuff. 
Not going as expected.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So this morning, I get an email from a long time friend that has a screenshot accompanied by his comment:
> View attachment 660059
> 
> Had a friend in Australia send me this, I had already done the research and knew this, but he confirmed...
> ...



So...these are all "tactical military and bio weapon facilities"?









Ukraine conflict: Before and after images reveal Russian destruction


These images show the aftermath of devastating Russian missile attacks on civilian areas across Ukraine.



www.bbc.com


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## GrauGeist (Mar 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So...these are all "tactical military and bio weapon facilities"?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Aparently - I told my friend that his "source" in Australia was probably a Russian kid in his Mom's basement flooding social media with "Q" riffs for a few rubles a day from RT news and he won't talk to me now.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aparently - I told my friend that his "source" in Australia was probably a Russian kid in his Mom's basement flooding social media with "Q" riffs for a few rubles a day from RT news and he won't talk to me now.



Hey, at least SOMEONE got a happy ending from this debacle. 😃

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## Marcel (Mar 4, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 4, 2022)

Looks like the worst had been avoided at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.









Fire At Europe's Largest Nuclear Plant In Ukraine Has Been Extinguished (Updated)


The plant has been at the center of an ongoing battle between Russian and Ukrainian forces.




www.thedrive.com





The largest vessel in the ukrainian navy had been scuttled. 









The Ukrainian Navy's Flagship Appears To Have Been Scuttled


The pride of the Ukrainian Navy's fleet, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, is now partially sunk.




www.thedrive.com


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 4, 2022)

Marcel said:


> View attachment 660109


LOVE Calvin & Hobbes!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> LOVE Calvin & Hobbes!



Agreed….they are the keenest purveyors of truth and wisdom.

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## msxyz (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "Civil war" ... with one side backed by a foreign power.
> 
> Your spin is discernible.
> 
> I'd have a problem with a neighbor who tried to seize part of my back yard, too.


BOTH sides backed by foreign powers. Nobody can claim a higher moral ground in this tragedy.

This old article from 2014 (of the NYT none the less!) is just to give you an idea of what was happening.









Evacuating Children Along a Dangerous Ukraine Route (Published 2014)


Volunteer-run minivans are evacuating children from the besieged eastern city of Slovyansk, taking them beyond the reach of artillery fire and twitchy gunmen.




www.nytimes.com





Just like what happened in the former Yugoslavia, outside actors played the old 'divide et impera' tune and then they pick a side, blaming the other one for all the problems.


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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

The answer to the Ukrainian question is not the former Yugoslavia.

Answer the issues.

The answer to what is the capital of Peru is not the Former Yugoslavia.

This is deflection. Not an answer.

Seen it and seen it. A deflection to not being able to answer the question. Or to try and paint everyone as bad guys.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

One General apparently KIA by Ukrainian sniper.











Top Russian general killed in Ukraine


Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding general of the Russian 7th Airborne Division, was killed in fighting in Ukraine earlier this week.




www.stripes.com

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 4, 2022)

Or he was "relieved".


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

_Officials said Friday the fire that started in the training center of the facility has been extinguished with Russian troops taking over after an intense day of fighting, Reuters reported. 

"Personnel are on their working places providing normal operation of the station," an official told the news outlet.

The fire and damage that occurred were believed to be started by a Russian projectile, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said. 

The official told Reuters he has no control over the potential radiation issues from the plant, no communication with the plant’s managers or any oversight after the Russian seizure.

Russia is falsely blaming Ukraine for the fire at the facility and also said the site is running normally, according to Reuters.

It is the second nuclear win for Russia during the fighting after forces seized the old Chernobyl nuclear plant at the beginning of the invasion. 

Zaporizhzhia only has one reactor working around 60 percent capacity currently, Reuters noted.

Ukraine has one of the world’s largest nuclear fleets that includes four power plants and 15 reactors that provide about half of the country’s power. The country, however, houses no nuclear weapons._









Fire out as Russia seizes Europe’s largest nuclear plant


A fire is out at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as Russian forces have taken control of Europe’s largest nuclear site. Officials said Friday the fire that started in the training center of t…




thehill.com





I can't find what cities the power plant services, but the aim of cutting power to the defenders is obvious. I'd imagine Kherson and the other southern cities are going to be very endangered without power.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

msxyz said:


> BOTH sides backed by foreign powers. Nobody can claim a higher moral ground in this tragedy.



What forgeign troops in unmarked uniforms were on Ukrainian soil? Be specific and support your claims with links to reputable sources, please.

This old article from 2014 (of the NYT none the less!) is just to give you an idea of what was happening.









Evacuating Children Along a Dangerous Ukraine Route (Published 2014)


Volunteer-run minivans are evacuating children from the besieged eastern city of Slovyansk, taking them beyond the reach of artillery fire and twitchy gunmen.




www.nytimes.com





Just like what happened in the former Yugoslavia, outside actors played the old 'divide et impera' tune and then they pick a side, blaming the other one for all the problems.
[/QUOTE]

Your article is paywalled, so I can't read it. Maybe you could offer a summary and an excerpt or two?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Or to try and paint everyone as bad guys.



Exactly. The name for this informal logical fallacy is  tu quoque.

Nothing that happened in 2014 justifies Russia's unprovoked 2022 invasion.

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## Marcel (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The answer to the Ukrainian question is not the former Yugoslavia.
> 
> Answer the issues.
> 
> ...


One can use a comparison or an example to show what they mean. I don’t see any problem with that. 

Btw the capital of Peru is indeed Lima and not the Former Yugoslavia.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

When do we think Kyiv will fall to the Russians? My guess is on Monday.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Here's another example of Russians targeting "tactical military and bio weapon facilities" (Report from the BBC):








_Ana Morari, from Leicestershire, has family in Izyum, north-eastern Ukraine, who have been sending her updates.

Her cousin has a three-year-old baby and has moved to safety in Petrovs'kyi in the east. Meanwhile, his mum, dad and brother are still in Izyum.

"My cousin has moved to safety, but the rest of his family didn't want to leave Isyum.

"My aunty is a pharmacist. She's been working full time, but unable to go to shops.

"They are absolutely trapped. *They've been bombed for three days non-stop.* They're in a shelter.

"Russian news say Izyum is a military strategic point. Maybe it was 100 years ago. It had one weapons factory which was closed 30 years ago. However, the Russians are saying this is what needs levelling down.

"Now they're firing on blocks of flats, on homes, on schools. One warehouse has been shelled. They have nothing there.

"We're looking at how we can help get supplies to them. They asked for diapers etc. In the same cellar, there are kids. My uncle is very ill, not very mobile.

"Many don't want to leave because there are gangsters ready to raid their flats and homes. Now they're stuck. They can't even go out"_

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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

Marcel said:


> One can use a comparison or an example to show what they mean. I don’t see any problem with that.
> 
> Btw the capital of Peru is indeed Lima and not the Former Yugoslavia.


So Putin is not responsible for his actions? Because of what happened in the former Yugoslavia?

I dont understand the logic.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Putin's taking yet more control of the information environment (from the BBC):

_The lower chamber of the Russian parliament has approved a law that would impose jail sentences of up to 15 years for people spreading "fake" information.

A number of independent outlets in Russia have been shut down, or chosen to stop operating. International outlets the BBC and Deutsche Welle have been restricted.

Now the BBC director-general says the corporation is temporarily suspending the work of all BBC journalists in Russia, in response to the law.

"This legislation appears to criminalise the process of independent journalism," says director general Tim Davie.

"It leaves us no other option than to temporarily suspend the work of all BBC News journalists and their support staff within the Russian Federation while we assess the full implications of this unwelcome development.

"Our BBC News service in Russian will continue to operate from outside Russia.

"The safety of our staff is paramount and we are not prepared to expose them to the risk of criminal prosecution simply for doing their jobs. I'd like to pay tribute to all of them, for their bravery, determination and professionalism.

"We remain committed to making accurate, independent information available to audiences around the world, including the millions of Russians who use our news services.

"Our journalists in Ukraine and around the world will continue to report on the invasion of Ukraine."_

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 4, 2022)

I think he's trying to say that Putin is justified in his actions, because Yugoslavia.


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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I think he's trying to say that Putin is justified in his actions, because Yugoslavia.


Cool. I can bomb France because of my Citroen. 

They had it coming.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Cool. I can bomb France because of my Citroen.
> 
> They had it coming.


I can see that.

Or a Renault...

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 4, 2022)

I won't judge. But Frog might object.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

So did Poland give them their Migs?

Poland is saying they did not.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Ukraine military kills a top Russian general


Ukrainian defense forces say they killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky in combat earlier this week.




www.yahoo.com


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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

I read no. No Fulcrums.

So who knows what we are reading.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Another unintended consequence...a steady stream of Russians crossing the border into Finland:
_
At Finland's border crossing with Russia at Vaalimaa, 120 miles (193 kilometres) east of Helsinki, buses and cars stop for passport and customs checks.

These aren't Ukrainians, they're Russians - and although the flow isn't heavy, it is constant.

People are anxious to get out of Russia because there has been a persistent rumour that Vladimir Putin's government might soon introduce martial law to deal with demonstrations against the invasion of Ukraine.

We spoke to one young Russian woman who was leaving for the West. She was in despair at what has been happening.

"People in Ukraine are our people – our family," she says. "We shouldn't be killing them."

Would she think of going back, I asked?

"Not while our dreadful government is there. It is so, so sad."

There's immense sympathy for people like her in Finland, just as there is for Ukraine and its inhabitants.

This sympathy, and the fear that Russia might lash out at other neighbours like Finland itself, is changing attitudes to Finland's traditional neutrality.

According to the latest opinion polls, a growing majority of Finns believe that it's time for their country to join Nato and get the protection that membership of the alliance would bring._

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

Just a thought, but the announcement of NATO nations specifically supplying fighter aircraft to the Ukraine could be used as an excuse for Putin to retaliate.

So it seems to me, that the announcement would be retracted in the media.

Now, if the Jets "just happened" to quietly find their way to the Ukraine, that's a different matter...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just a thought, but the announcement of NATO nations specifically supplying fighter aircraft to the Ukraine could be used as an excuse for Putin to retaliate.
> 
> So it seems to me, that the announcement would be retracted in the media.
> 
> Now, if the Jets "just happened" to quietly find their way to the Ukraine, that's a different matter...



That’s what I am thinking as well.


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## Marcel (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> So Putin is not responsible for his actions? Because of what happened in the former Yugoslavia?
> 
> I dont understand the logic.


I didn’t say that, relax.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Regardless, I am honestly getting more worried. I think Putin knows there is no endgame, and this is his “last stand” and he is perfectly ok with everyone burning with him.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Regardless, I am honestly getting more worried. I think Putin knows there is no endgame, and this is his “last stand” and he is perfectly ok with everyone burning with him.



Agreed. Putin has stated previously that there would be "no world without Russia" (similar statements were made in the past few days by one of his lackeys). Putin seems to believe that he IS Russia...which adds to my angst.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agreed. Putin has stated previously that there would be "no world without Russia" (similar statements were made in the past few days by one of his lackeys). Putin seems to believe that he IS Russia...which adds to my angst.



I keep going over every scenario, and I see no scenario where he stops without NATO military intervention.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another unintended consequence...a steady stream of Russians crossing the border into Finland:
> 
> _At Finland's border crossing with Russia at Vaalimaa, 120 miles (193 kilometres) east of Helsinki, buses and cars stop for passport and customs checks.
> 
> ...


Wow. 
It’s like NATO is singing “We are the world “. Who’s next ?


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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Wow.
> It’s like NATO is singing “We are the world “. Who’s next ?


NATO was never a threat to Russia (offensively) and up until 2013-2014, there was a quiet status quo.

Europe and Russia both had good trade, a decent economy and so forth.

There really wasn't any reason, other than personal aspirations, for Russia to be concerned with NATO. All he had to do, was see the shrinking defense budgets of the various European nations, to know that there was no threat to Mother Russia from the west.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> NATO was never a threat to Russia (offensively) and up until 2013-2014, there was a quiet status quo.
> 
> Europe and Russia both had good trade, a decent economy and so forth.
> 
> There really wasn't any reason, other than personal aspirations, for Russia to be concerned with NATO. All he had to do, was see the shrinking defense budgets of the various European nations, to know that there was no threat to Mother Russia from the west.



He complains about former East Bloc countries joining NATO, but maybe he should ask himself why they are seeking out to join NATO in the first place.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Washington's Newest Worry: The Dangers of Cornering Putin


WASHINGTON — Senior White House officials designing the strategy to confront Russia have begun quietly debating a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions directed at Moscow, which has gained speed faster than they imagined, is cornering President Vladimir Putin and may prompt him to lash...




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Russians should not assassinate Vladimir Putin, says Boris Johnson


Brexit on back burner due to Ukraine Anger over knighthood for Gavin Williamson NHS axes free flu jabs for over-50s and secondary students Fraser Nelson: Putin will regret a war that has united Europe Labour holds seat in by-election with reduced majority US says Nato is 'ready for conflict'...




www.yahoo.com


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 4, 2022)

I don't think the world has had a lot of luck trying to pacify madmen.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

I think Lindsey Graham is an idiot, but I agree with what he said. Somebody in Russia needs to take him out. Not just for the world, but for the sake of their own country.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 4, 2022)

I actually see that as being the best course of action for everybody involved.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> NATO was never a threat to Russia (offensively) and up until 2013-2014, there was a quiet status quo.
> 
> Europe and Russia both had good trade, a decent economy and so forth.
> 
> There really wasn't any reason, other than personal aspirations, for Russia to be concerned with NATO. All he had to do, was see the shrinking defense budgets of the various European nations, to know that there was no threat to Mother Russia from the west.



I don't think he was actually afraid of NATO. I personally believe he was using NATO expansion as a "justification" for his ambition to rebuild the Russian empire.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think Lindsey Graham is an idiot, but I agree with what he said. Somebody in Russia needs to take him out. Not just for the world, but for the sake of their own country.



Yeah...but it would need to be a qualified marksman to hit Putin at the opposite end of that LOOOOONNNGGGG table!














Same-same for the Duma:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think Lindsey Graham is an idiot, but I agree with what he said. Somebody in Russia needs to take him out. Not just for the world, but for the sake of their own country.



While I do agree with you on both points, I wonder if killing him would provake a Russian civil war? I don't know the mood on the ground of the Russian citizenry, but there appears to be _some_ division.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

If that alone wasn’t a clue to his cronies.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't think he was actually afraid of NATO. I personally believe he was using NATO expansion as a "justification" for his ambition to rebuild the Russian empire.



Agreed. He knows that NATO was never a threat to invade Russia. He also knows he has all the power and can practically do what he wants because NATO will not risk Nuclear War. I fear for Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, etc.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...but it would need to be a qualified marksman to hit Putin at the opposite end of that LOOOOONNNGGGG table!
> 
> 
> View attachment 660154
> ...



If you are that afraid that should tell you something about yourself.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> While I do agree with you on both points, I wonder if killing him would provake a Russian civil war? I don't know the mood on the ground of the Russian citizenry, but there appears to be _some_ division.



I agree, but what other options are there?


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If you are that afraid that should tell you something about yourself.



I get the impression Putin isn't big on self-reflection.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If you are that afraid that should tell you something about yourself.


Insert my post #1113 here. Thump got the jump on me posting.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I get the impression Putin isn't big on self-reflection.



I get the feeling I actually hate this man. I try not to hate anyone.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. He knows that NATO was never a threat to invade Russia. He also knows he has all the power and can practically do what he wants because NATO will not risk Nuclear War. I fear for Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, etc.



I read earlier today that a majority of Finns now support joining NATO. I say welcome 'em in, the sooner the better.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I read earlier today that a majority of Finns now support joining NATO. I say welcome 'em in, the sooner the better.



Same with Sweden.

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## soulezoo (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I get the feeling I actually hate this man. I try not to hate anyone.


Hate is a very strong emotion my friend. I try to limit myself to "head over heels in dislike".

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. He knows that NATO was never a threat to invade Russia. He also knows he has all the power and can practically do what he wants because NATO will not risk Nuclear War. I fear for Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, etc.


If he attacks any of those NATO countries the west will need to go to war, if only to expel the Russians from NATO territory. And can you imagine the Russian military trying to invade Poland in the same condition and skill it invade Ukraine? That forty mile convoy? NATO air forces will chew it to bits. Abrams, Leo IIs and Challenger 2s will mop up the rest. I am surprised Canada hasn't dispatched its Leo IIs to the CAF force in Latvia - they're doing us no good here. I wouldn't want to be flying a forty year old CF-18 against the latest VVS fighters though.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If he attacks any of those NATO countries the west will need to go to war, if only to expel the Russians from NATO territory. And can you imagine the Russian military trying to invade Poland in the same condition and skill it invade Ukraine? That forty mile convoy? NATO air forces will chew it to bits. Abrams, Leo IIs and Challenger 2s will mop up the rest. I am surprised Canada hasn't dispatched its Leo IIs to the CAF force in Latvia - they're doing us no good here. I wouldn't want to be flying a forty year old CF-18 against the latest VVS fighters though.



After his army's showing in Ukraine, any attack on NATO would have to involve WMDs for the Russians to have a chance, I believe -- especially after reading the article about Russian logistics linked upthread.

Were it not for nuclear arms, I'd almost welcome this as a way to remove him from power.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If he attacks any of those NATO countries the west will need to go to war, if only to expel the Russians from NATO territory. And can you imagine the Russian military trying to invade Poland in the same condition and skill it invade Ukraine? That forty mile convoy? NATO air forces will chew it to bits. Abrams, Leo IIs and Challenger 2s will mop up the rest. I am surprised Canada hasn't dispatched its Leo IIs to the CAF force in Latvia - they're doing us no good here.



Unless NATO backs down to prevent Nuclear War. Unlikely, but who is who is more likely to not back down because he has less to lose?

You seem to think that 40 mile convoy is the entire Russian military. The vast majority of his forces (better equipped and trained regulars) are held in reserve incase NATO enters. All of that is backed with 6000 nuclear warheads and a madman who *cannot* back down


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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

The forces NATO would face would be the A team, not the Stolichnaya National Guard troops in Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If he attacks any of those NATO countries the west will need to go to war, if only to expel the Russians from NATO territory. And can you imagine the Russian military trying to invade Poland in the same condition and skill it invade Ukraine? That forty mile convoy? NATO air forces will chew it to bits. Abrams, Leo IIs and Challenger 2s will mop up the rest. I am surprised Canada hasn't dispatched its Leo IIs to the CAF force in Latvia - they're doing us no good here. I wouldn't want to be flying a forty year old CF-18 against the latest VVS fighters though.


CF-18s would fare quite well against their Russian opponents.
They have the latest electronics, they have top-notch maintenance and their pilots have considerable stick time with constant flight excersizes.

Also, if the CF-18 were to be pitched against Russian forces, they would not be doing it alone.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> *After his army's showing in Ukraine, any attack on NATO would have to involve WMDs for the Russians to have a chance,* I believe -- especially after reading the article about Russian logistics linked upthread.
> 
> Were it not for nuclear arms, I'd almost welcome this as a way to remove him from power.



Ding, ding, ding. The writing is all over the wall, and that’s what makes this so dangerous. The west has no desire to use WMDs, but Putin has no problems. Its everything or nothing for him.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The forces NATO would face would be the A team, not the Stolichnaya National Guard troops in Ukraine.



Right, but that doesn't change the paucity of organic logistics units or the home-field advantage -- not to mention the technological discrepancies between Russian and NATO equipment.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but that doesn't change the lack of organic logistics units or the home-field advantage -- not to mention the technological discrepancies between Russian and NATO equipment.


We told you not to mention that.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

One thing I keep remembering is NEVER underestimate your opponent.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> One thing I keep remembering is NEVER underestimate your opponent.



It’s easy to do when we are all 7,000 mile away keyboard warriors.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Agreed with both the posts above. I sure don't underestimate the carnage that would ensue from a Russo-NATO conflict, but dispatching the Russian reserves against a NATO country would strip Russia of freedom of operational action in Ukraine and force them to commit an occupation force against an insurgency that is certain to arise there.

It would, I think, be a bigger blunder than the invasion of Ukraine is itself, with little promise of success while removing any possibility of the Ukrainian invasion being a short, sharp, action.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

I always get a kick on social media when people are so quick to scream for war. It’s like “there is a recruiting office down the street guys. I’m sure the Marines or Army would love to have you.”

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed with both the posts above. I sure don't underestimate the carnage that would ensue from a Russo-NATO conflict, but dispatching the Russian reserves against a NATO country would strip Russia of freedom of operational action in Ukraine and force them to commit an occupation force against an insurgency that is certain to arise there.
> 
> It would, I think, be a bigger blunder than the invasion of Ukraine is itself, with little promise of success while removing any possibility of the Ukrainian invasion being a short, sharp, action.



I agree completely it would be a blunder. I just question whether Putin thinks NATO will bluff and then he does something stupid. I think he thinks he has nothing to lose.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

_Following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, a sweeping wave of sanctions by the European Union and the U.S. has combined with an exodus of foreign companies and investors, leaving Russia more isolated and economically restricted.

[...]

The value of the ruble has plummeted to a record low, less than 1 cent, as many people watched their savings erode in Monday's free-fall of the Moscow stock exchange. The indexes remained closed as of Wednesday.

The Russian Central Bank more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%, after the U.S. and allies froze much of its foreign reserves that would normally be used to prop up the ruble. Last week, Moscow Times correspondents reported that Moscow banks and ATMs were no longer doling out euros and dollars. They remain in short supply.

The Kremlin has in turn banned all Russians from transferring foreign currency abroad and ordered exporters to exchange 80% of their foreign currency proceeds for rubles.

[...]

Many people in Russia who work for foreign companies have been anxious about being able to receive pay, as the first batch of key Russian banks has been booted from the interbank SWIFT system to target oil and gas profits. A similar anxiety has spread to those outside Russia who receive payments from within the country — for instance, for remote tutoring or freelance work._

Read more: 









How everyday Russians are feeling the impact from sanctions


Rising prices, stranded tourists and lines at ATMs are just some of the ways ordinary Russians are seeing repercussions from sanctions and restrictions imposed on their country for invading Ukraine.




www.npr.org





The demand that exporters turn over 80% of foreign currency for rubles is really going to hurt those companies, given that this forces them to incur huge losses against planned income. How many workers will show up for work when each ruble is now only worth one penny?

I'm betting hyperinflation sets in unless the government enforces draconian measures to stop it.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I always get a kick on social media when people are so quick to scream for war. It’s like “there is a recruiting office down the street guys. I’m sure the Marines or Army would love to have you.”



Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly? 

I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem. 

NATO's fundamental problem is that it CANNOT be seen as stretching beyond its self-defensive mandate. Doing that would give Putin all the evidence he needs to say "See? I told you so. NATO is an aggressive threat." Nor can NATO member nations act unilaterally because, again, it gifts Putin a propaganda coup.

It's an ugly, gnarly problem with few good options for defusing the situation.

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## Airframes (Mar 4, 2022)

Putin - Rasputin.
There are very close similarities .................

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree completely it would be a blunder. I just question whether Putin thinks NATO will bluff and then he does something stupid. I think he thinks he has nothing to lose.



I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

Airframes said:


> Putin - Rasputin.
> There are very close similarities .................


Just make sure Putin stays dead.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly?
> 
> I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem.
> 
> ...



Spot-on. If y'all will pardon my language, it's a shit-sandwich and there's no way around eating it, bite-by-bite, at this point ... unless we want to see a general and perhaps a nuclear war.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.


Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn’t.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Airframes said:


> Putin - Rasputin.
> There are very close similarities .................



But Rasputin was a lover...of the Russian queen. YOU ASKED--NAY BEGGED--FOR THIS>>>

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn’t.



I don't know that he's irrational. It may be that his premises are flawed. I don't doubt that there are military leaders in Russia telling him the same things I'm mentioning here. I mean, if some Internet idiot like me can see the problems, no doubt they can too, and much more clearly.

They know the bind they're in better than any of us, and I'm pretty sure they're just as accustomed to and fond of breathing as we are.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But Rasputin was a lover...of the Russian queen. YOU ASKED FOR THIS>>>




There _must_ be something in the forum's rules against a post like this!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There _must_ be something in the forum's rules against a post like this!



Hey....at least I'm "entertaining"!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> One thing I keep remembering is NEVER underestimate your opponent.


I think the first step there is ALWAYS understand your opponent. Hitler didn't bother to confirm how many tanks, planes and men the Soviets had before invading. Tojo didn't bother to understand how American might personally and industrially react to Pearl Harbour. Putin didn't bother to check the potential staying power and will of Ukraine's people. 

It's not that hard to understand your opponent, but first you must park your own hubris, ego and especially confirmation bias. This requires you to listen to others with an open mind, trust the expertise of others, but first your advisors must feel free to speak without fear.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

Putin’s advisors are free to speak their minds, once.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I always get a kick on social media when people are so quick to scream for war. It’s like “there is a recruiting office down the street guys. I’m sure the Marines or Army would love to have you.”


Don't be so sure. I know that recruiting and retention is always a problem, and the US military has really loosened the physical and mental standards of late, but, we don't need any mouth-breathing basement-dwellers. Present company excluded, of course.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> ....we don't need any mouth-breathing basement-dwellers. Present company excluded, of course.


Indeed, my keriorrhea and ozostomia would keep me out of the forces.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hey....at least I'm "entertaining"!



"Entertaining" as in _fapping with sandpaper_?

This could probably do better in the "modern music" thread ... though Boney M was cutting a path for crappy music long ago ...

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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)

It reminds me of the outsized impact the Sagger AT3 had on "the initial phases of the Yom Kippur War.[9] Later in the war, the Israelis adopted new tactics and learned to neutralize the Sagger threat by employing large concentrations of artillery fire to either distract or kill the Sagger operators.[9] Other improvised methods used by the Israelis to defeat the Saggers involved firing in front of the tank to create dust, moving back and forth and firing at the source of Sagger fire.[10] These Israeli tactics were later adopted by NATO forces to counter the threat posed by Warsaw Pact ATGMs.[10] In total, Saggers knocked out more than 800 Israeli tanks and other combat vehicles during the war.[11]" <a href="9M14 Malyutka - Wikipedia">9M14 Malyutka</a>

The key difference seems to be that the Imperial Russian Army doesn't appear to be able to come up with counter tactics as the Israeli Army was.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the first step there is ALWAYS understand your opponent. Hitler didn't bother to confirm how many tanks, planes and men the Soviets had before invading. Tojo didn't bother to understand how American might personally and industrially react to Pearl Harbour. Putin didn't bother to check the potential staying power and will of Ukraine's people.
> 
> It's not that hard to understand your opponent, but first you must park your own hubris, ego and especially confirmation bias. This requires you to listen to others with an open mind, trust the expertise of others, but first your advisors must feel free to speak without fear.





Sun-Tzu said:


> Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are certain in every battle to be in peril.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)

Ooops! As if Ukrainian forces weren't bad enough!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:









Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'


These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Problem is, while you are rational, Vlad the Impaler isn’t.


Big difference between Vlad Putin and Vlad Tepis.

Vlad Tepis was was defending his homeland from ruthless invaders...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The Russians have a detailed understanding of the importance of controlling the narrative, both in domestic and international terms.

I'd rant about the "fake news" trope but it would shut this thread down mos' rickey-tick, so I'll leave the readers to ascertain my opinion.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Closely followed by "The West should do something!" Do what, exactly?
> 
> I understand the frustration many feel but the available options are limited and to do anything militarily would risk significant escalation. Is that REALLY what people want to see? A war that's relatively contained for now spreading throughout Europe and the world? Not sure that's the right answer to this thorny problem.
> 
> ...



Agreed. Our hands are really tied behind our back.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope you're wrong. In any case, he will have to act before sanctions cripple Russia's ability to conduct war, which is the most-expensive human endeavor outside of perhaps space exploration/operations.



The sanctions are a double edge sword. By crippling him, it might further drive him to do something stupid because he believes he has no other options.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Don't be so sure. I know that recruiting and retention is always a problem, and the US military has really loosened the physical and mental standards of late, but, we don't need any mouth-breathing basement-dwellers. Present company excluded, of course.



Except the loudest aren’t your open mouth basement dwellers, its your camo wearing, yeti cup drinking, Ford-50000000 driving guys that are the loudest. Their also the “I would have served, but didn’t…” crowd.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Russians have a detailed understanding of the importance of controlling the narrative, both in domestic and international terms.
> 
> I'd rant about the "fake news" trope but it would shut this thread down mos' rickey-tick, so I'll leave the readers to ascertain my opinion.



Methinks you and I are probably on the same page....but let's leave it there.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The sanctions are a double edge sword. By crippling him, it might further drive him to do something stupid because he believes he has no other options.



True enough. That discussion is going on in US gov't circles according to an article I read this morning ... their term is "Putin's Corner".

It boils down to whether he thinks he can win out before the sanctions really bite, or not -- and what he, or the Russian populace, will do once the sanctions really start to hurt.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The sanctions are a double edge sword. By crippling him, it might further drive him to do something stupid because he believes he has no other options.



Well, if things do turn nasty and we all get vaporized, at least we can console ourselves in the knowledge that we maintained the moral high ground....right?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> With Putin implementing laws that imprison anyone for spreading "fake news" (oh, how I HATE that term!), here are some first-hand experiences that demonstrate the power of Russian propaganda:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I saw an interview with a Russian woman. She was asked if she knows whats happening in Ukraine. She said she had heard the reports, but does not know whether to believe it because its you know fake news. 

The word has become a buzz word for “The news is going against what I have been told to believe, and therefore it is fake.” Uggghhh

Anyhow, I won’t go down that rabbit hole.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Russians have a detailed understanding of the importance of controlling the narrative, both in domestic and international terms.
> 
> *I'd rant about the "fake news" trope but it would shut this thread down mos' rickey-tick, so I'll leave the readers to ascertain my opinion.*



Agreed, and why I said I won’t go down the rabbit hole…

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## pgeno71 (Mar 4, 2022)

I am trying to get my head around the situation between our "support" for Ukraine and the "crippling sanctions" against Russia. On the one hand were trying to get Javelins and other supplies into Ukraine without directly provoking Putin, but on the other hand were still buying Russian oil with U.S. dollars at $100+ per barrel. Now I think Nancy Pelosi is a complete moron, but even today she realized that was bad policy. Also, the exchange rate today for dollars to rubles was 1:121, and considering the tens of billions of petrodollars he compiled over the last year as oil prices rose, did we give Putin more purchasing power to fund the war by devaluing the ruble? I know a devalued ruble will have severe consequences for Russia's economy and people, but Putin doesn't give a shit about that. I'm suspicious of any effect sanctions will have. Just curious to know what you guys think.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I am trying to get my head around the situation between our "support" for Ukraine and the "crippling sanctions" against Russia. On the one hand were trying to get Javelins and other supplies into Ukraine without directly provoking Putin, but on the other hand were still buying Russian oil with U.S. dollars at $100+ per barrel. Now I think Nancy Pelosi is a complete moron, but even today she realized that was bad policy. Also, the exchange rate today for dollars to rubles was 1:121, and considering the tens of billions of petrodollars he compiled over the last year as oil prices rose, did we give Putin more purchasing power to fund the war by devaluing the ruble? I know a devalued ruble will have severe consequences for Russia's economy and people, but Putin doesn't give a shit about that. I'm suspicious of any effect sanctions will have. Just curious to know what you guys think.



Well what do you propose? I ask because I honestly don’t know the solution.

We can’t go to war. Sanctions are our only option. They are a doubled edged sword.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I am trying to get my head around the situation between our "support" for Ukraine and the "crippling sanctions" against Russia. On the one hand were trying to get Javelins and other supplies into Ukraine without directly provoking Putin, but on the other hand were still buying Russian oil with U.S. dollars at $100+ per barrel. Now I think Nancy Pelosi is a complete moron, but even today she realized that was bad policy. Also, the exchange rate today for dollars to rubles was 1:121, and considering the tens of billions of petrodollars he compiled over the last year as oil prices rose, did we give Putin more purchasing power to fund the war by devaluing the ruble? I know a devalued ruble will have severe consequences for Russia's economy and people, but Putin doesn't give a shit about that. I'm suspicious of any effect sanctions will have. Just curious to know what you guys think.


I guess people never got the memo: Biden stopped the flow of money into Russia. It doesn't matter if a tanker shows up with Russian oil, the Russians are not getting paid for it.

The US buys very little Russian petroleum. Most of our imports are products (i.e. stuff that comes from refineries). And how much of that is then re-exported I do not know, but US exports of petroleum products is almost as large as our imports. 

It's very similar to the talks about the pipeline from Canada that was going to help our "energy independence" when 90% of that really poor quality oil from sand is sold to China.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well what do you propose. I ask because I honestly don’t know the solution.
> 
> We can’t go to war. Sanctions are our own option. They are a doubled edged sword.



It's less about the US and more about Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas. I know moves are afoot to secure oil from other locations. For example, Algeria has offered to increase production. I wonder if North Sea oil production could also be increased. I doubt those 2 measures alone will be enough...but every barrel that's bought from a country other than Russia helps tighten the financial screws on the Putin regime. Now...(and I mean this quite literally, folks) let's hope we don't screw them too tightly.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> [...]
> 
> but on the other hand were still buying Russian oil with U.S. dollars at $100+ per barrel. Now I think Nancy Pelosi is a complete moron, but even today she realized that was bad policy. Also, the exchange rate today for dollars to rubles was 1:121, and considering the tens of billions of petrodollars he compiled over the last year as oil prices rose, did we give Putin more purchasing power to fund the war by devaluing the ruble?
> 
> ...



Given that Russian oil and gas companies will be forced to turn over 80% of their dollars into rubles, thereby essentially negating about 80% of any profits, Putin will in the short term gain more dollars into government coffers to spend on the international market -- to companies that will do business with him, that is. 

In the meantime, the companies selling energy on the open market will have their profit-margins squeezed very tightly and struggle to stay afloat. And any company going under will by default reduce the ability of Russians to capture foreign currency, by dint of less exports.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The US buys very little Russian petroleum. Most of our imports are products (i.e. stuff that comes from refineries). And how much of that is then re-exported I do not know, but US exports of petroleum products is almost as large as our imports.



Most of our petroleum imports are actually crude drawn to America for refining purposes and thereafter exported again, as refined products, at a profit.

I don't think we import much Russian crude for this purpose, as the Russians have large refineries capable of processing their own uptake. Most of what we import, refine, and then re-export is from Canada and Mexico/SouthAmerica, as well as Saudi Arabia.

From domestic production, we can right about cover daily domestic needs. Most of our imports come in for processing and re-export rather than satisfying daily national needs.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well what do you propose. I ask because I honestly don’t know the solution.
> 
> We can’t go to war. Sanctions are our own option. They are a doubled edged sword.


I don't have a solution because I'm not sure my assessment is even correct. I was just kinda thinking out loud, but I do believe we're not really impacting his ability to fight the war. The sanctions so far seem to be intended to generate political pressure on Putin, which I do not believe he cares about, or cause a coup. While that would be great, I think the fear of failure and the consequences of that failure will prevent that from occurring. I do not think a Brutus will emerge anytime soon. And I agree with you Lindsey Graham is an idiot. But, I think a good start might be to stop buying his most valued commodity (a global embargo would ideal) and lower the global price of oil by producing it again here in the U.S. and making some type of deal with the Middle East producers. We only import about 7% of our oil from Russia, roughly 500,000 barrels a year. Increasing our production levels would help if we cut that off


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I don't have a solution because I'm not sure my assessment is even correct. I was just kinda thinking out loud, but I do believe we're not really impacting his ability to fight the war. The sanctions so far seem to be intended to generate political pressure on Putin, which I do not believe he cares about, or cause a coup. While that would be great, I think the fear of failure and the consequences of that failure will prevent that from occurring. I do not think a Brutus will emerge anytime soon. And I agree with you Lindsey Graham is an idiot. But, I think a good start might be to stop buying his most valued commodity (a global embargo would ideal) and lower the global price of oil by producing it again here in the U.S. and making some type of deal with the Middle East producers. We only import about 7% of our oil from Russia, roughly 500,000 barrels a year. Increasing our production levels would help if we cut that off



We are not impacting his ability in the short term, but we are impacting the long-term by tanking his economy and production. You can’t wage war if you can’t produce.

And secondly his people will suffer, and hopefully they will revolt. Hopefully before he does something stupid.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

As for stopping to buy his oil, all the oil company’s are pulling out of Russia. His ability to produce and ship it is faltering.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> The sanctions so far seem to be intended to generate political pressure on Putin, which I do not believe he cares about, or cause a coup.
> 
> [...]



That is all the sanctions are designed to do. They can't and won't impede ongoing military ops for some time to come, assuming Russia has laid in reserves of vital materials, which is my understanding.



pgeno71 said:


> But, I think a good start might be to stop buying his most valued commodity (a global embargo would ideal) and lower the global price of oil by producing it again here in the U.S. and making some type of deal with the Middle East producers.



I doubt that will happen. The Saudis are preventing OPEC from increasing daily production, keeping prices up; but most American oil production nowdays (56% or so the last time I read) is from fracking or refining sand-oils (i.e. "tight oil"), which doesn't turn a profit above ~$45/bbl or so. Now, oil is at ~$110/bbl right now, but the low prices over the last three-four years have seen frackers etc go bust in America the last four years or so, and it will take some time to restart those ops.

Saudis can pull a profit at $12-14/bbl because their oil is easy to get at. The Russians need about $30/bbl to come out ahead, but with sanctions in place that number will surely rise.



pgeno71 said:


> We only import about 7% of our oil from Russia, roughly 500,000 barrels a year. Increasing our production levels would help if we cut that off



If we go that route, Americans must be ready for $6/gal for gas, for the reasons given above.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And secondly his people will suffer, and hopefully they will revolt. Hopefully before he does something stupid.



Right, that is the race, and why "Putin's Corner" is a concern in the higher echelons of American government. Might we push him into something drastic?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's not that hard to understand your opponent, but first you must park your own hubris, ego and especially confirmation bias. This requires you to listen to others with an open mind, trust the expertise of others, but first your advisors must feel free to speak without fear.


That is the part missing in autocracies, seldom could one speak freely (as 

 SaparotRob
said, once at most) not only for fear of reprisals, also because you are in the same mindset than the others in the room.

As they say, for a hammer everything is a nail.

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## Glider (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't think he was actually afraid of NATO. I personally believe he was using NATO expansion as a "justification" for his ambition to rebuild the Russian empire.


I do agree with this as stated in the past tense. However even the most amateur warrior can look at the huge logjams of equipment many miles long and imagine what a co-ordinated airstrike would do to them. 
In the present tense, he and his generals may well now be afraid of Nato as literally the war on Ukraine could be over in a day. The one thing that NATO is well equipped for, and has a lot of experience in, is ground attack.

The follow up of course is the real risk of a nuclear response, which is probably the only thing that's stopping such an airstrike.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That is the part missing in autocracies, seldom could one speak freely (as
> 
> SaparotRob
> said, once at most) not only for fear of reprisals, also because you are in the same mindset than the others in the room.
> ...



Exactly. Putin is in the claws of Maslow's Hammer.

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## special ed (Mar 4, 2022)

Re: The fake news. You have reminded me of many years back when Geraldo Rivera was doing exposes for his shows. He was doing one on professional wrestling in the US for TV. I remember after a match , he ran up to a wrestler walking down a hallway, shoved the microphone in his face and said, "This is all fake, isn't it?" The wrestler smacked Geraldo's face, open handed, hard enough to lift him and knock him down, and said, "Was that fake?"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That is all the sanctions are designed to do. They can't and won't impede ongoing military ops for some time to come, assuming Russia has laid in reserves of vital materials, which is my understanding.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I used to work in the oil and gas industry. I was going to comment in agreement and elaborate why, but I think it might go too far out of the topic realm. You covered it nicely…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I used to work in the oil and gas industry. I was going to comment in agreement and elaborate why, but I think it might go too far out of the topic realm. You covered it nicely…



I manage a gas station and pay attention to this stuff. 

Sorry if I went too far off-topic, but I thought it needed addressing.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I manage a gas station and pay attention to this stuff.
> 
> Sorry if I went too far off-topic, but I thought it needed addressing.



No you were good. I was going to jump into the economics that everyone ignores, which would have gone way out there. I decided to leave it alone.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> For example, Algeria has offered to increase production.


That is more a patch than a solution. The problem for the argelian gas is that the pipes from there to Spain and Europe run through Morocco and both countries are once again at odds (so bad this time that there are no ambassadors) and Morocco don't let the gas go by so it has to be carried by ship and there isn't any where near the transport capacity to ship all needed neither the capacity to process the natural gas back from liquid state to gas state.

The sooner the West gets energy independence (most likely from renovables) the better, so we can get rid of all those m.th.rf.ck.rs blackmailers dictators and satraps, either in the East or the middle east or wherever they are.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, if things do turn nasty and we all get vaporized, at least we can console ourselves in the knowledge that we maintained the moral high ground....right?


The P-39 rules and the Mustang, FW 190 and Spitfire were rubbish!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

There will now be a shortage of healthcare workers in Russia…









12,000 Russian healthcare workers dared publicly oppose Putin’s war


12,000 medical personnel signed a letter asking Putin to stop the invasion of Ukraine




qz.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Has Reportedly Survived 3 Assassination Attempts In The Last Week


The Kremlin has dispatched two separate groups of mercenaries to Kyiv in an attempt to kill the Ukrainian President.




www.yahoo.com


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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I manage a gas station and pay attention to this stuff.
> 
> Sorry if I went too far off-topic, but I thought it needed addressing.


The stuff I was going on was different but it's always good to get more info.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No you were good. I was going to jump into the economics that everyone ignores, which would have gone way out there. I decided to leave it alone.



The economics is why the sanctions do indeed matter, right? I know that they take more time to bite, and that the sanctions cannot and probably will not save Ukraine, unfortunately. But it beats all hell out of Global Thermonuclear War.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The economics is why the sanctions do indeed matter, right? I know that they take more time to bite, and that the sanctions cannot and probably will not save Ukraine, unfortunately. But it beats all hell out of Global Thermonuclear War.



Any economic decision whether it is fiscal or monetary policy takes time. It’s never immediate. There is always a lag. A decision made by one administration usually is not fully felt until the next (some are). Hence why its funny when any of them take claim when its going well.

The same can be said for economic sanctions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Volodymyr Zelenskyy Has Reportedly Survived 3 Assassination Attempts In The Last Week
> 
> 
> The Kremlin has dispatched two separate groups of mercenaries to Kyiv in an attempt to kill the Ukrainian President.
> ...



If this part of the report you linked is true, it bespeaks dissension inside the government of Russia itself:



> Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov told a Ukrainian television network that anti-war elements in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) have been essential in helping foil some of the plots.



Of course, there's no telling if it isn't propaganda as well. I myself hope it's true.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

I used to be totally ignorant of macroeconomics before starting my Masters in Business Administration. I’m still no where near being an expert, but I really enjoy it now and understand it a lot more. My studies were eye opening to say the least. 

One more week and I graduate!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I used to be totally ignorant of macroeconomics before starting my Masters in Business Administration. I’m still no where near being an expert, but I really enjoy it now and understand it a lot more. My studies were eye opening to say the least.
> 
> One more week and I graduate!



My understanding of economics (micro- or macro-) can be fitted into a thimble.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The P-39 rules and the Mustang, FW 190 and Spitfire were rubbish!



Y’know there’s a special corner of purgatory reserved in the forever-after for people like you!

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## Vincenzo (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I used to be totally ignorant of macroeconomics before starting my Masters in Business Administration. I’m still no where near being an expert, but I really enjoy it now and understand it a lot more. My studies were eye opening to say the least.
> 
> One more week and I graduate!


i like you will graduate in BA but i don't see the connection within BA and macroeconomics can you explain?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The P-39 rules and the Mustang, FW 190 and Spitfire were rubbish!



We should ship some Groundhogs to Ukraine and give those Russkies a taste of their favorite medicine!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The stuff I was going on was different but it's always good to get more info.



I've had a beer or two and wont to go off on tangents, sorry

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We should ship some Groundhogs to Ukraine and give those Russkies a taste of their favorite medicine!



And for good measure, send them Buffaloes -- lots and lots of Buffaloes.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And for good measure, send them Buffaloes -- lots and lots of Buffaloes.



It worked for the Finns against the USSR. 😃

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It worked for the Finns against the USSR. 😃



And they're wanting to join NATO now ... it's win/win!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 4, 2022)

Hey, can we invite Ukraine into AUKUS? Putin zigs, we zag!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding of economics (micro- or macro-) can be fitted into a thimble.



Mine was a thimble, now its a shot glass.

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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The P-39 rules and the Mustang, FW 190 and Spitfire were rubbish!


Which mark of Spitfire?

Are you including Seafires?

The great thing about nuclear winter is that it will counter act any global warming. I don't think the positive of nuclear war has been talked about.

And in millions of years time, flowers will bloom again. A new Eden.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Mine was a thimble, now its a shot glass.



This drink's on you, then.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Vincenzo said:


> i like you will graduate in BA but i don't see the connection within BA and macroeconomics can you explain?



The connection between the administration of a business and macroeconomics? It should be obvious how they are connected. Everything about an economy and its condition has an effect on business. Where and when to expand? When to enter into a new market? Especially in international business which is what my masters specialization is. Macroeconomics deals heavily in the decision making of economics and how it impacts an economy. If you don’t understand how a countries economic decisions (fiscal and monetary) impact an economy how can you make business decisions? 

My MBA studies covered both macro and microeconomics. Macroeconomics interests me more though.

This is from Wiki because its simply easier to copy and paste it than fat finger it on my phone.

_“Macroeconomics is branch of economics dealing with performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. For example, using interest rates, taxes, and government spending to regulate an economy's growth and stability. This includes regional, national, and global economies.

Macroeconomists study topics such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), unemployment (including unemployment rates), national income, price indices, output, consumption, inflation, saving, investment, energy, international trade, and international finance.”_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> And in millions of years time, flowers will bloom again. A new Eden.



George Carlin had a few words about this. NSFW for language:

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## The Basket (Mar 4, 2022)

Even if every nuclear weapon explodes the Earth will be fine.

Humanity gone. But Earth ok.

And millions of years later there will be new life with new stories.

So when Vlad pushes the button. Don't be sad. Just be thankful that new species and new life will grow again.

It will be glorious.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Even if every nuclear weapon explodes the Earth will be fine.
> 
> Humanity gone. But Earth ok.
> 
> ...



Don't know about anyone else, but I've grown accustomed to breathing.

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## Vincenzo (Mar 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The connection between the administration of a business and macroeconomics? It should be obvious how they are connected. Everything about an economy and its condition has an effect on business. Where and when to expand? When to enter into a new market? Especially in international business which is what my masters specialization is. Macroeconomics deals heavily in the decision making of economics and how it impacts an economy. If you don’t understand how a countries economic decisions (fiscal and monetary) impact an economy how can you make business decisions?
> 
> My MBA studies covered both macro and microeconomics. Macroeconomics interests me more though.
> 
> ...


it is a good answer

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Vincenzo said:


> it is a good answer



Thank you. Like I said, I am no expert, just because I have a business degree soon. All it does is give me enough of an understanding and appreciation to begin to put my knowledge to use. Only with real world experience will I really learn.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 4, 2022)

I've been following this thread from the beginning and have found it very interesting. Thanks to everyone for your contributions and for managing to keep it apolitical and (mostly) on track!

So how about this? Fast forward 6 months. Ukraine has fallen after much destruction and casualties on both sides. Zelenski is dead, a puppet government has been installed, and an oppressive police state exists that is brutally cracking down on all Ukraine resistance. NATO never got involved as there has been no incursion into other European arenas. Western sanctions remain in place and have been "maxxed out" to the extent that no further actions are possible. China has stepped in behind the scenes and backstopped Putin and his cronies financially so they can "get by" on their million dollar a week allowances, not to mention with some long-term payback agreed to. The Russian people are suffering but mass arrests continue to stifle protests. Putin hangs on. The vacuum created in the Russian economy has partially been alleviated with Chinese products and services. In the meantime, you are driving to the grocery store on $5/gal. gasoline to buy your $6 loaf of bread and $10 head of iceberg lettuce. Western populations are demanding action from their governments to do something about the rampant inflation. Opposition parties feed on the mayhem, blaming those in power for ruining our ways of life in order to position themselves for the landslide elections to come.

Ultimately, we get the regime changes but not the ones that we are presently hoping for.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 4, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I've been following this thread from the beginning and have found it very interesting. Thanks to everyone for your contributions and for managing to keep it apolitical and (mostly) on track!
> 
> So how about this? Fast forward 6 months. Ukraine has fallen after much destruction and casualties on both sides. Zelenski is dead, a puppet government has been installed, and an oppressive police state exists that is brutally cracking down on all Ukraine resistance. NATO never got involved as there has been no incursion into other European arenas. Western sanctions remain in place and have been "maxxed out" to the extent that no further actions are possible. China has stepped in behind the scenes and backstopped Putin and his cronies financially so they can "get by" on their million dollar a week allowances, not to mention with some long-term payback agreed to. The Russian people are suffering but mass arrests continue to stifle protests. Putin hangs on. The vacuum created in the Russian economy has partially been alleviated with Chinese products and services. In the meantime, you are driving to the grocery store on $5/gal. gasoline to buy your $6 loaf of bread and $10 head of iceberg lettuce. Western populations are demanding action from their governments to do something about the rampant inflation. Opposition parties feed on the mayhem, blaming those in power for ruining our ways of life in order to position themselves for the landslide elections to come.
> 
> Ultimately, we get the regime changes but not the ones that we are presently hoping for.



Ugggghhh

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

On the otherhand, let's suppose that the Ukraine pulls off Finland V2.0 and mires Russia down into a protracted guerilla war that becomes extremely unpopular at home.

The Ukranian people are a very determined people who have proven through history to be resilient in the face of adversity.

If Putin succeeds in murdering Zelensky, he will become a martyr and a rallying point that will Steele the Ukraine's resolve that much more.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 4, 2022)

CR, Perhaps you mean not the one the sanctions were supposed to produce. Some may be looking forward to regime change in our western democracies. That's what opposition parties do. Otherwise, they're not really opposition parties, are they?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 4, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I've been following this thread from the beginning and have found it very interesting. Thanks to everyone for your contributions and for managing to keep it apolitical and (mostly) on track!
> 
> So how about this? Fast forward 6 months. Ukraine has fallen after much destruction and casualties on both sides. Zelenski is dead, a puppet government has been installed, and an oppressive police state exists that is brutally cracking down on all Ukraine resistance. NATO never got involved as there has been no incursion into other European arenas. Western sanctions remain in place and have been "maxxed out" to the extent that no further actions are possible. China has stepped in behind the scenes and backstopped Putin and his cronies financially so they can "get by" on their million dollar a week allowances, not to mention with some long-term payback agreed to. The Russian people are suffering but mass arrests continue to stifle protests. Putin hangs on. The vacuum created in the Russian economy has partially been alleviated with Chinese products and services. In the meantime, you are driving to the grocery store on $5/gal. gasoline to buy your $6 loaf of bread and $10 head of iceberg lettuce. Western populations are demanding action from their governments to do something about the rampant inflation. Opposition parties feed on the mayhem, blaming those in power for ruining our ways of life in order to position themselves for the landslide elections to come.
> 
> Ultimately, we get the regime changes but not the ones that we are presently hoping for.



In the meantime, the Russians have to support a large occupation force to fight an insurgency, on an economy hamstrung by sanctions which you yourself acknowledge is only partly offset by Chinese support. The Chinese, by the way, aren't happy that the democracies have been awakened by Putin's gambit, and are more cautious in their dealings with him. I doubt they'll be handing out big doles to such a problem child.

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## swampyankee (Mar 4, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I've been following this thread from the beginning and have found it very interesting. Thanks to everyone for your contributions and for managing to keep it apolitical and (mostly) on track!
> 
> So how about this? Fast forward 6 months. Ukraine has fallen after much destruction and casualties on both sides. Zelenski is dead, a puppet government has been installed, and an oppressive police state exists that is brutally cracking down on all Ukraine resistance. NATO never got involved as there has been no incursion into other European arenas. Western sanctions remain in place and have been "maxxed out" to the extent that no further actions are possible. China has stepped in behind the scenes and backstopped Putin and his cronies financially so they can "get by" on their million dollar a week allowances, not to mention with some long-term payback agreed to. The Russian people are suffering but mass arrests continue to stifle protests. Putin hangs on. The vacuum created in the Russian economy has partially been alleviated with Chinese products and services. In the meantime, you are driving to the grocery store on $5/gal. gasoline to buy your $6 loaf of bread and $10 head of iceberg lettuce. Western populations are demanding action from their governments to do something about the rampant inflation. Opposition parties feed on the mayhem, blaming those in power for ruining our ways of life in order to position themselves for the landslide elections to come.
> 
> Ultimately, we get the regime changes but not the ones that we are presently hoping for.



In most of the world, $5/gallon gas would be a significant price cut. Leaving that aside, an interesting side affect of sanctions against Russia is they produce 20% of the world's titanium, while China produces 45%. Kazakhstan and Ukraine produce about 10% and 4%, respectively. (Top Titanium Producing Countries). 

It's telling that Putin is using the same sort of rhetoric to justify the invasion of Ukraine that Hitler used to justify the invasions of Poland and Czechoslovakia.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Mar 4, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



What’s the point of armour on Russian tanks? MAPATS seem to slice right through them. NATO introduced HEAT-resistant Chobham laminated composite tank armour thirty years ago - where’s the Russian equivalent?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What’s the point of armour on Russian tanks? MAPATS seem to slice right through them. NATO introduced HEAT-resistant Chobham laminated composite tank armour thirty years ago - where’s the Russian equivalent?


Depends on where the tank was struck as well as the variant of tank, too.

Many of the tanks sent into the Ukraine are older and don't have the latest kontakt-5 reactive protection.

However, in the vid, the shot was broadside to the hull and looked like it was aimed low, where just about any AFV in the world would be at risk.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> CR, Perhaps you mean not the one the sanctions were supposed to produce. Some may be looking forward to regime change in our western democracies. That's what opposition parties do. Otherwise, they're not really opposition parties, are they?



Not sure I agree with your premise, Greg. An opposition party can have a very different political perspective but can still support the structures, checks and balances by which political authority is exercised. IMHO, regime change goes somewhat further than that by trying to eradicate those established structures, checks and balances or replace them with something fundamentally different.

Voting Democratic or Republican may feel like regime change in the US but, in reality, it's not. Swapping American democratic values for autocracy where the rule of law is removed, along with freedom of speech and freedom of the press...that would constitute regime change.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What’s the point of armour on Russian tanks? MAPATS seem to slice right through them. NATO introduced HEAT-resistant Chobham laminated composite tank armour thirty years ago - where’s the Russian equivalent?


Where to start? 

Since the T-64, the Soviet tank designs had a form of composite armor. Quoting the Wiki "The first widespread use of a composite armour appears to have been on the Soviet T-64. It used an armour known as Combination K, which apparently is glass-reinforced plastic sandwiched between inner and outer steel layers. Through a mechanism called thixotropy, the resin changes to a fluid under constant pressure, allowing the armour to be moulded into curved shapes. Later models of the T-64, along with newer designs, used a boron carbide-filled resin aggregate for greatly improved protection. The Soviets also invested heavily in reactive armour, which allowed them some ability to control quality, even after production." Composite armour - Wikipedia

This gave the T-64 and T-72 good protection against older HEAT, HEP & APDS rounds. The 105mm L7/M68 was thought to be especially weak against them though we have learned better since. It does not stand up well to APFSDS, especially DU, rounds. The ERA was supposed to help with ATGMs and other hand held weapons. During the 2nd Chechen war, the T-90 was essentially invulnerable to the RPG-7 that had chewed up the T-80. However, tandem warheads seem to be able to defeat this protection as we are seeing in Ukriane where it is not as effective as expected and, for example, the Javelin has a 93% kill ratio against all of the Russian tanks currently employed.

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## at6 (Mar 5, 2022)

I read today that the Russians offered oil at a reduced price and no one bought it. So Putin and friends must be hurting some. I also no longer have anything to do with one of my internet "friends" because he supports Putin. He made the stupid claim that Putin is a Christian leader fighting for good Russian morals and values against an un-Christian goverment. I can't brook such stupidity from anyone. Just because Zelensky is Jewish doesn't justify Putin.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 5, 2022)

at6 said:


> I read today that the Russians offered oil at a reduced price and no one bought it. So Putin and friends must be hurting some. I also no longer have anything to do with one of my internet "friends" because he supports Putin. He made the stupid claim that Putin is a Christian leader fighting for good Russian morals and values against an un-Christian goverment. I can't brook such stupidity from anyone. Just because Zelensky is Jewish doesn't justify Putin.


Wow. Putin a Christian leader? I generally don't begrudge anyone's religious beliefs, but that is out there.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 5, 2022)

Update from the BBC - Russia announces humanitarian corridors to 2 cities in Ukraine:

_Russia's defence ministry says humanitarian corridors will open at 10:00 Moscow time (07:00GMT) on Saturday from the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha.

A "regime of quietness" will be implemented for the civilian population to leave the cities and has been agreed with the Ukrainian authorities, the defence ministry said according to Russian media.

However, we haven't seen any confirmation from the Ukrainian side as yet.

Earlier, Mariupol's mayor Vadym Boichenko called for a humanitarian corridor amid an ongoing blockade and what he has called "ruthless attacks" by Russian troops._

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Don't know about anyone else, but I've grown accustomed to breathing.


Vladimir Putin will decide your fate.

Don't look surprised in the shadow of the mushroom cloud.

Nuclear war is only one of many scenario but it fits the available facts.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

Putin can give the order, but there are others down the line that have to turn the keys, flip the switches and so on.

Putin is a narcissist, he wants to be emperor and is rattling an atomic saber in the hopes that everyone will be cowed at his bare-chested, bear riding self.

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## rochie (Mar 5, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> So how about this? Fast forward 6 months. Ukraine has fallen after much destruction and casualties on both sides. Zelenski is dead, a puppet government has been installed, and an oppressive police state exists that is brutally cracking down on all Ukraine resistance. NATO never got involved as there has been no incursion into other European arenas. Western sanctions remain in place and have been "maxxed out" to the extent that no further actions are possible.



what i fear will happen

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## Marcel (Mar 5, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Vladimir Putin will decide your fate.
> 
> Don't look surprised in the shadow of the mushroom cloud.
> 
> Nuclear war is only one of many scenario but it fits the available facts.


Wow, I guess you are quite fun at parties.

I still believe Putin does this

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## buffnut453 (Mar 5, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Wow, I guess you are quite fun at parties.
> 
> I still believe Putin does this
> View attachment 660194



While, in reality, he's more like this?

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

Funny saw route of Tokyo to London flight.

They have to fly over Alaska and Greenland in a big circle to avoid flying over Russian Federation.

Impossible with Earth being flat obviously but they use magic.

Adds 3 hours but the upside is you don't take a Buk to the face.

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Wow, I guess you are quite fun at parties.


I am never fun. 

I live very close to a first round nuclear strike target so I'm good.

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## J_P_C (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unless NATO backs down to prevent Nuclear War. Unlikely, but who is who is more likely to not back down because he has less to lose?
> 
> You seem to think that 40 mile convoy is the entire Russian military. The vast majority of his forces (better equipped and trained regulars) are held in reserve incase NATO enters. All of that is backed with 6000 nuclear warheads and a madman who *cannot* back down


just consider situation that against ukraine has been used best what russia have - just consider fact that VDV are counted in russia as a superelite forces, the same is for Taman and Kantemirovska divisions - this two practically destroyed and remainings withdrown from combat

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## at6 (Mar 5, 2022)

I finally responded one last time to internet "friend" I know that he will be angered but then why give a fecal dropping about that? I gave him a small background history lesson about Stalin and Hitler's religious up bringing and Putin's Soviet background. I told him that his view meant that Hitler should be canonized and proclaimed Saint Adolf of Berlin. Putin or Hitler, what's the difference?

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

Ok what the problem.

Russia has big army and does spend big money on defence.

But that money is on nuclear and navy so problem is Kyiv is not designed for submarines.

So the majority of your budget is not going where it needs to be right now.

Second is corruption which is the issue as corruption is pretty much everything. And if the big guy is corrupt then nothing wrong with the little guy wetting his beak.

So on paper there maybe a lotta Gasolina but only on paper as it was either not bought or sold on. The money has disappear into the ether.

So kinda obvious maybe that things are not working out.

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## Dimlee (Mar 5, 2022)

"Some 74% of Americans - including solid majorities of Republicans and Democrats - said the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine, the poll found"








EXCLUSIVE Americans broadly support Ukraine no-fly zone, Russia oil ban -poll


A broad bipartisan majority of Americans think the United States should stop buying Russian oil and gas and work with NATO to set up "no-fly zones" to protect Ukraine from Russian air strikes, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Friday.




www.reuters.com





I hope that those "solid majorities" will be heard.

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## Dimlee (Mar 5, 2022)

Just another day.
Another helicopter, another Su.








Українці на Київщині за допомогою ПЗРК збили російський вертоліт. ВІДЕО


Близько дев'ятої години ранку українські військові на Київщині збили російський бойовий вертоліт. Аеророзвідка поширила оперативне відео.




novynarnia.com












Над Черніговом збили ще один російський штурмовик: що сталося з пілотами. ФОТО, ВІДЕО


Українські військові збили в районі Чернігова ще один російський військовий літак. Про це вранці 5 березня повідомило оперативне командування "Північ",




novynarnia.com




Two pilots, one survived. The aircraft crashed in the residential area with 3 bombs unexploded, probably FAB-500.

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## Dimlee (Mar 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Update from the BBC - Russia announces humanitarian corridors to 2 cities in Ukraine:
> 
> _Russia's defence ministry says humanitarian corridors will open at 10:00 Moscow time (07:00GMT) on Saturday from the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha.
> 
> ...


Mariupol corridor was shut down, unfortunately.

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## Marcel (Mar 5, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "Some 74% of Americans - including solid majorities of Republicans and Democrats - said the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine, the poll found"
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The problem is, it’s also a major risk of fatal escalation what we are risking here. Once there, there will be no turning back.

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## Marcel (Mar 5, 2022)

One thing that annoys me is that also on our side the worst of humanity surfaces. It seems that quite regularly only ‘white” Ukrainian refugees are welcome and not for instance African students that want to flee. 
We can see it here in the NL as well. We welcome these Ukrainians with open arms (and rightfully so) but that was very different last year when all our helpers from Afghanistan wanted to come here after our self made debacle there and everybody here was angry. The double moral annoys the hell out of me.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "Some 74% of Americans - including solid majorities of Republicans and Democrats - said the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine, the poll found"
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Dimlee, I truly understand your sentiment, and I wish we could, however a no fly zone would end up being a disaster. You have to remember that there are approx 11,000 warheads pointed at each other.

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

If they would impose a no-fly zone (i hope not as that would drag NATO into the war) this would limit Ukraine too. So far they still have a limite dnumber of aircraft and drones for surprise attacks

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Kremlin says the West is behaving like a bandit


LONDON (Reuters) -The Kremlin said on Saturday that the West was behaving like a bandit by cutting economic relations over the conflict in Ukraine but that Russia was far too big to be isolated as the world was much larger than just the United States and Europe. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov...




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin says the West is behaving like a bandit
> 
> 
> LONDON (Reuters) -The Kremlin said on Saturday that the West was behaving like a bandit by cutting economic relations over the conflict in Ukraine but that Russia was far too big to be isolated as the world was much larger than just the United States and Europe. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov...
> ...


SMH.


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## Glider (Mar 5, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just another day.
> Another helicopter, another Su.
> 
> 
> ...



The pilot who survived was one very lucky person. The missile hit head on and it hit the ground with some force

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

msxyz said:


> In 4 years Trump convinced Germany to raise the defence budget from 1.2% to 1.4%, in 4 days Putin convinced them to raise it to 2%.


I wonder what Germany’s defence priorities will be? The Luftwaffe‘s combat fleet has 140 Eurofighters and 100 Tornado IDS. I‘m surprised they have no attack helicopters like the Apache or Italy’s Agusta A129 Mangusta.

Perhaps Germany will order the F-35 and Apache….









Germany Re-considering US F-35s to Replace Tornados for US Nuke Missions - American Defense News


A comprehensive source for foreign affairs and defense-related news brought to you by one of America's premier national security experts.




americandefensenews.com










Berlin Security Conference 2021: Germany shows interest in Apache gunship


Germany has expressed its interest in the Boeing AH-64 Apache, issuing the US government with a request for information (RFI) on the helicopter gunship.



www.janes.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Vladimir Putin will decide your fate.
> 
> Don't look surprised in the shadow of the mushroom cloud.
> 
> Nuclear war is only one of many scenario but it fits the available facts.



I made my peace with death long ago, boyo.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

More German news, one of the architects of Germany’s dependence on Russian oil and gas is making the news…









Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder loses entire staff after refusing to resign from Russian energy company boards


Gerhard Schroeder, known to be a close friend of Vladimir Putin, has come under criticism for profiting from the Russian regime




www.theglobeandmail.com





I think when this is over Germany and much of Europe will have a much reduced dependence on Russian oil and gas.

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Germany’s defence priorities will be? The Luftwaffe‘s combat fleet has 140 Eurofighters and 100 Tornado IDS. I‘m surprised they have no attack helicopters like the Apache or Italy’s Agusta A129 Mangusta.
> 
> Perhaps Germany will order the F-35 and Apache….
> 
> ...


Ever heard of the Tiger?








Eurocopter Tiger - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




I really hope they don't buy this F-35, they should either develop something with France (and other european partners) or get an upgrade version of Eurofighter/Rafale.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin says the West is behaving like a bandit
> 
> 
> LONDON (Reuters) -The Kremlin said on Saturday that the West was behaving like a bandit by cutting economic relations over the conflict in Ukraine but that Russia was far too big to be isolated as the world was much larger than just the United States and Europe. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov...
> ...



Yeah, and stealing land from your neighbors is the very definition of "banditry."

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Ever heard of the Tiger?


No, otherwise I would have mentioned it. I’d forgotten that the army has its own aviation wing.

If Germany tries to develop a fighter with France it won’t enter service until the mid 2030s. It’s either American or the Eurofighter. How about the F-15E Strike Eagle? Still in production and very lethal.









F-15EX Eagle II unveiled as newest fighter


Lt. Gen. Duke Richardson, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics military deputy, presented the F-15EX Eagle II during an unveiling and naming



www.af.mil

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Germany’s defence priorities will be? The Luftwaffe‘s combat fleet has 140 Eurofighters and 100 Tornado IDS. I‘m surprised they have no attack helicopters like the Apache or Italy’s Agusta A129 Mangusta.
> 
> Perhaps Germany will order the F-35 and Apache….
> 
> ...



I suspect they will purchase the Apache.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

Go Boeing!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, otherwise I would have mentioned it. I’d forgotten that the army has its own aviation wing.
> 
> If Germany tries to develop a fighter with France it won’t enter service until the mid 2030s. It’s either American or the Eurofighter. How about the F-15E Strike Eagle? Still in production and very lethal.
> 
> ...



The F-15E is no longer being built. My office (when I go in) is just upstairs from the assembly line. The current line is the XE.

It would be a great stop gap aircraft until their own 6th Gen is developed if they choose to go that route.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Go Boeing!



Music to my ears.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The current line is the XE. It would be a great stop gap aircraft until their own 6th Gen is developed if they choose to go that route.


How about your firm’s Super Hornet?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

Russia seizes US athlete.









Brittney Griner, Star W.N.B.A. Center, Is Detained in Russia


Russian customs officials said a U.S. basketball player had vape cartridges containing hashish oil in her luggage. A Russian news agency identified the player as Griner.




www.nytimes.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How about your firm’s Super Hornet?



As a stop gap aircraft it is a great cheaper alternative.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> As a stop gap aircraft it is a great cheaper alternative.


I was surprised to see that LM is still making F-16s. Is there a secret line producing Phantoms somewhere?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was surprised to see that LM is still making F-16s. Is there a secret line producing Phantoms somewhere?



No, but the road leading to my work is called Phantom Blvd. because it used to be McDonnell Douglas and the F-4 was produced there.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia seizes US athlete.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What are the odds of an American being "caught" in Russia with "drugs" on them?

She ahould have left when the state department said "leave, immediately"...

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Go Boeing!


as long as they don't crash because the flight control program said so ......
EDIT: Attack Helos are typically in the Army, not the Air Force.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> as long as they don't crash because the flight control program said so ......



You mean like the Airbus used to do as well?

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You mean like the Airbus used to do as well?


I believe this is one A320 with limited loss of life vs two B737 with major loss of life. Nobody wins in this contest though.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

_In a break with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s second-largest oil company called for the country's invasion in Ukraine to end, joining a growing list of organizations, in and outside of Russia, urging for peace.

“The Board of Directors of LUKOIL expresses herewith its deepest concerns about the tragic events in Ukraine. Calling for the soonest termination of the armed conflict, we express our sincere empathy for all victims, who are affected by this tragedy,” Lukoil’s board of directors said in a statement on Thursday. 

“We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy,” the statement continued.

The board of directors added that the company would try to continue its operations in all countries and regions where it currently has a presence._









Russian oil company calls for peace in Ukraine in break with Putin


In a break with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s second-largest oil company called for the country’s invasion in Ukraine to end, joining a growing list of organizations, i…




thehill.com





If enough companies speak out, this could be the offramp.

Or the Kremlin could just confiscate the company(ies) and their holdings, and jail the directors.

In either event, the sanctions seem to be causing enough angst to make these businessmen risk their business and even their freedom in signing this statement.


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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

A "slight" problem for russian internet providers


https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-internet-cogent-cutoff/










Internet Traffic Handler Cuts Off Some Russian Customers


One of the world's biggest handlers of internet traffic told some Russian customers Friday it had cut them off. Cogent Communications Holdings Inc. told major Russian internet service providers including Rostelecom that it would terminate their service starting Friday afternoon. The Washington, D.C




www.wsj.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I believe this is one A320 with limited loss of life vs two B737 with major loss of life. Nobody wins in this contest though.



The point was this, both companies have had aircraft with problems. Airbus and Europe should not throw rocks in glass houses.

The 737 Max crashes were tragic events, but it is now the safest plane in the skies. The incoming orders are evident of this.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I believe this is one A320 with limited loss of life vs two B737 with major loss of life. Nobody wins in this contest though.


The A320 has had 17 fatal accidents that claimed 1393 lives...

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The A320 has had 17 fatal accidents that claimed 1393 lives...


An the B737 had how many incidents with how many lives lost?
If one wants to compare 737 Max with A320 one has to use A320 Neo (same era/timeframe). And as I said before, nobody wins in this contest as each life lost is one too much.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

The 737 has been flying A LOT longer than the A320 so…

I suggest we get back to the topic of Ukraine.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 5, 2022)

Agree. Stuff is difficult enough to pull in other discussions.

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

The civilian evacuation of Mariupol failed miserably despite a negotiated ceasefire. Question is does Vlad still control his units or did he really intent to fire his artillery at refugee convoys?
Both options would be really bad.

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## GTX (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The F-15E is no longer being built. My office (when I go in) is just upstairs from the assembly line. The current line is the XE.
> 
> It would be a great stop gap aircraft until their own 6th Gen is developed if they choose to go that route.


It will be F-35.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg...-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378


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## GTX (Mar 5, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Wow. Putin a Christian leader? I generally don't begrudge anyone's religious beliefs, but that is out there.


I don't see why this would be surprising to anyone, Putin has made a big thing of religion, especially the Russian Orthodox Church. Moreover, it just puts him as the latest 'Christian leader' to commit atrocities. One can go back to the Crusades or even earlier and look at the centuries of atrocities done in the name of or by so called Christian leaders.

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## J_P_C (Mar 5, 2022)

The Basket said:


> i wonder what Germany’s defence priorities will be? The Luftwaffe‘s combat fleet has 140 Eurofighters and 100 Tornado IDS. I‘m surprised they have no attack helicopters like the Apache or Italy’s Agusta A129 Mangusta.





Admiral Beez said:


> Perhaps Germany will order the F-35 and Apache….
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Luftwaffe has around 60 Eurocopter Tigers in active duty whicha are pretty much attack helicopters- Mangusta is attack helicopter without capability to survive on battlefield this is why only Italian army is using this c...p. And Germany will order F35 - uncle Sam left them no choice - new versions of B61 will be certified for use only with this type.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 5, 2022)

Anyone else picked up on the slight change in terminology coming out of Moscow? Previously, Putin and others had spoken of “nazis” but in the pst 24 hours the term “nationalists” is being used. Both Putin and a foreign office spokesperson have used that term.

Wonder if this is the start of painting anyone who resists as an enemy, regardless of their political alignment?

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

Luftwaffe has no Tiger, the Heer (Army) operates them


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Anyone else picked up on the slight change in terminology coming out of Moscow? Previously, Putin and others had spoken of “nazis” but in the pst 24 hours the term “nationalists” is being used. Both Putin and a foreign office spokesperson have used that term.
> 
> Wonder if this is the start of painting anyone who resists as an enemy, regardless of their political alignment?


Saw that! "Nazis" while the president of Ukraine is Jewish!

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## at6 (Mar 5, 2022)

Now there are reports that Russian soldiers are raping the women in occupied territories. That came as no surprise. Can't get it at home so grab it by force next door.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

Stinger missile in action:

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

From Twitter "Two portable 2D Squire ground-based surveillance radars and five AN / TPQ-36 Firefinder weapons detection radars will be delivered to Ukraine by the Dutch Ministry of Defense to counter Russian aggression."

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

From Twitter: "One of the last Su-34s (board number "24 red"), built in 2018 and part of the 2nd Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 21st Mixed Aviation Division of the 14th Smolensk Red Banner Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Central Air Force"

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

One more...

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

One after the other will be shot down. Just give the Ukrainians enough SAMs to accomplish that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> It will be F-35.
> 
> https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg...-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378



I’m not surprised.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Stinger missile in action:




Whoopsie-daisy!

No punchout, either.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

You can tell its a stinger. Russian built ones tend to have a lil more corkscrew.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> From Twitter: "One of the last Su-34s (board number "24 red"), built in 2018 and part of the 2nd Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 21st Mixed Aviation Division of the 14th Smolensk Red Banner Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Central Air Force"
> 
> View attachment 660279
> 
> ...


What I understand, is that Ukraine ground forces downed two.
One of them, the pilot managed to survived and was taken prisoner.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Putin says Ukraine's future in doubt as cease-fires collapse


Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Saturday that Ukrainian statehood is in jeopardy and likened the West's sanctions on Russia to “declaring war,” while a promised cease-fire in the besieged port city of Mariupol collapsed amid scenes of terror. With the Kremlin’s rhetoric growing fiercer...




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Germany To Russia: We're 'Kinda Experts' On Nazism, And Russia Isn't Fighting It


"What Russia is doing in Ukraine is slaughtering innocent children, women and men for its own gain," the German Embassy in South Africa tweeted.




www.yahoo.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What I understand, is that Ukraine ground forces downed two.
> One of them, the pilot managed to survived and was taken prisoner.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Germany To Russia: We're 'Kinda Experts' On Nazism, And Russia Isn't Fighting It
> 
> 
> "What Russia is doing in Ukraine is slaughtering innocent children, women and men for its own gain," the German Embassy in South Africa tweeted.
> ...



German sarcasm is the best.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

Good info and details about the eight Russian aircraft shot down today, including info on the pilot you posted, Joe - he aparently was a someone important:









Sukhoi Su-34 Pilot who stood next to Assad and Putin in 2016 Photo was flying one of the eight Russian Aircraft shot down over Ukraine today - The Aviation Geek Club


Sukhoi Su-34 Pilot who stood next to Assad and Putin in 2016 Photo was flying one of the eight Russian Aircraft shot down over Ukraine today




theaviationgeekclub.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> German sarcasm is the best.



My wife has to explain it to Americans quite often, otherwise they often misunderstand her. German’s are very frank, blunt, and to the point. They don’t beat around the bush.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Good info and details about the eight Russian aircraft shot down today, including info on the pilot you posted, Joe - he aparently was a someone important:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Looks like Porky got shot down. Do the Russians not have weight and fitness standards? 

Also what is it with the Russians and their Space Balls inspired helmets?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My wife has to explain it to Americans quite often, otherwise they often misunderstand her. German’s are very frank, blunt, and to the point. They don’t beat around the bush.



If WWII had been fought with sarcasm rather than rounds, the Germans would have beaten the Brits -- and that's saying a lot, for this American who regards sarcasm, when done right, as an art.

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

The Su-34 which is the best Russian strike fighter is flying at low level firing unguided rockets?

What the cinnamon toast f#@& is this!

Why is their most expensive asset doing such donkey work? What the hell.

My goodness and they lost 2 today?

Mind boggles.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Looks like Porky got shot down. Do the Russians not have weight and fitness standards?
> 
> Also what is it with the Russians and their Space Balls inspired helmets?



And god help them if they ever had to evade the enemy after getting shot down in those bright orange flight suits. They look like a cross between a Rebel X-Wing pilot and a deer hunter in New York.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Looks like Porky got shot down. Do the Russians not have weight and fitness standards?
> 
> Also what is it with the Russians and their Space Balls inspired helmets?


Not one of those pilots in the Assad publicity shot look to be in good shape.

And X-Wing pilots have much better looking helmets!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not one of those pilots in the Assad publicity shot look to be in good shape.
> 
> *And X-Wing pilots have much better looking helmets! *



Agreed. I’m referring to the orange suits.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. I’m referring to the orange suits.


Yep, the orange suits are...well, a bit bright - but those goofy helmets, though.

That's why I mentioned the X-Wing pilot's helmets. If you're wearing day-glo, at least be stylish.

And not caught by a TIE Pilot..

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

No one's touched on CoG issues yet?! Am I in the right forum?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No one's touched on CoG issues yet?! Am I in the right forum?



He is not flying a P-39.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No one's touched on CoG issues yet?! Am I in the right forum?


If you're referring to the second photo in post #1282, it has more than just CoG issues...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He is not flying a P-39.



If he had been, would he have been shot down? Come now.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

Interesting points....









Here’s why Moscow declared ‘Total Aerial Superiority’ in the Skies over Ukraine and why Russia does not use its Jets as Multi-Role Aircraft - The Aviation Geek Club


Here’s why Moscow declared ‘Total Aerial Superiority’ in the Skies over Ukraine and why Russia does not use its Jets as Multi-Role Aircraft




theaviationgeekclub.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

On a more-serious note:

_Russia's military on Friday once again advanced toward a nuclear plant in Ukraine.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the U.N. Security Council that Russian troops were inching closer to Ukraine's nuclear plant in Yuzhnoukrainsk, according to Fox News.

The report comes just one day after Russian forces attacked Ukraine's largest nuclear facility, the news outlet noted.

Thomas-Greenfield during the Friday emergency session warned that the nuclear power station in Yuzhnoukrainsk was in "imminent danger."

"Russian forces are now 20 miles, and closing, from Ukraine’s second-largest nuclear facility," she reportedly said. "So this imminent danger continues."

Earlier in the session, Thomas-Greenfield signaled that Russia's focus on nuclear plants could pose a problem for Ukraine.

"Nuclear facilities cannot become part of this conflict," Thomas-Greenfield said, Fox News reported. "Reliable electricity is vital for the nuclear facility, as are back-up diesel generators and fuel. Safe transit corridors must be maintained. Russia must halt any further use of force that might put at further risk all 15 operable reactors across Ukraine – or interfere with Ukraine’s ability to maintain the safety and security of its 37 nuclear facilities and their surrounding populations."_









Russian forces closing in on another nuclear facility


Russia’s military on Friday once again advanced toward a nuclear plant in Ukraine.U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the U.N. Security Council that R…




thehill.com





We'll see for sure here whether or not bombarding the first plant was intentional or not. If they do it again, it's certainly intentional. Planning will have marked these sites on maps as installations of strategic value, either to destroy or to preserve. If they shoot this one up too, that will tell the truth about their intentions.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Looks like Porky got shot down. Do the Russians not have weight and fitness standards?


He's a porker! Could probably take a lot of Gs!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> He's a porker! Could probably take a lot of Gs!
> 
> View attachment 660286



I've never really had a close-up of a prehensile belly. Thanks for ... I dunno.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 5, 2022)

So, the Ukrainans are claiming eight aircraft downed today. The aircrew are a far cry from the supermen that Soviet and RF propaganda, (and Western, for that matter,) have made them out to be. It just kills me that we as a community of nations are willing to sit by wringing our hands while Putin and his minions slowly, inexorably subdues Ukraine.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> So, the Ukrainans are claiming eight aircraft downed today. The aircrew are a far cry from the supermen that Soviet and RF propaganda, (and Western, for that matter,) have made them out to be. It just kills me that we as a community of nations are willing to sit by wringing our hands while Putin and his minions slowly, inexorably subdues Ukraine.



What would you suggest?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> So, the Ukrainans are claiming eight aircraft downed today. The aircrew are a far cry from the supermen that Soviet and RF propaganda, (and Western, for that matter,) have made them out to be. It just kills me that we as a community of nations are willing to sit by wringing our hands while Putin and his minions slowly, inexorably subdues Ukraine.



So you want a nuclear weapons exchange?

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

Full scale nuclear war of course.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What would you suggest?



Weren’t we just talking about this? Recruiting office is down the street? 

Just kidding…

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## Denniss (Mar 5, 2022)

I suggest a trip to Ukraine. Bring your protective gear, a pistol/rifle with sufficient ammo and as many Stingers as you can carry.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So you want a nuclear weapons exchange?



That would be a potential endgame for any NATO involvement.

There's very much a subtext of the Trolley Problem in this discussion.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Full scale nuclear war of course.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That would be a potential endgame for any NATO involvement.
> 
> There's very much a subtext of the Trolley Problem in this discussion.



That is why we have not engaged militarily. I guarantee you there is not a NATO country that does not want to do more. Hell, there is not an A-10 pilot not waking up with a chubby after dreaming of that 40 mile convoy. 

Our response has been measured to what we can safely do without risking the lives of literally millions.

It really is not hard to understand.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

You trolly example is pretty spot on unfortunately.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> From Twitter "Two portable 2D Squire ground-based surveillance radars and five AN / TPQ-36 Firefinder weapons detection radars will be delivered to Ukraine by the Dutch Ministry of Defense to counter Russian aggression."
> 
> View attachment 660278


Whilst it’s a great way to test NATO kit I hope the Alliance can replenish their armaments in case it all goes to sh#t.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Whilst it’s a great way to test NATO kit I hope the Alliance can replenish their armaments in case it all goes to sh#t.



Rest assured NATO is not releasing anything that will degrade its capabilities.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

VISA and Mastercard blocking all sales (domestic and international) and ATM withdrawals from Russia.This could potentially have a huge impact. They are cutting into the ability of the people and their personal money supplies. Could hasten any descent…









Mastercard, Visa Suspend Operations In Russia After Plea From Zelenskyy


“We are compelled to act following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the unacceptable events that we have witnessed," said Visa's CEO.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That is why we have not engaged militarily. I guarantee you there is not a NATO country that does not want to do more. Hell, there is not an A-10 pilot not waking up with a chubby after dreaming of that 40 mile convoy.
> 
> Our response has been measured to what we can safely do without risking the lives of literally millions.
> 
> It really is not hard to understand.



Oh, I understand it. My emotional response to this catastrophe is to let loose my beloved Air Force over Ukraine and problem-solved ... except that like so many things in human experience, the solution can create problems much bigger than the original.

Which is why I adhere to reason as my problem-solving heuristic.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Full scale nuclear war of course.


How about a nice game of chess?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I understand it. My emotional response to this catastrophe is to let lose my beloved Air Force over Ukraine and problem-solved ... except that like so many things in human experience, the solution can create problems much bigger than the original.
> 
> Which is why I adhere to reason as my problem-solving heuristic.



Sorry, I was not clear. My response was not saying you don’t understand. It was targeted at the people that don’t seem to understand why we are not rolling tanks across the border and engaging the Russians. They are not looking at the entire situation, and only see a very narrow view of it. That is not meant as an insult to them, just they need to think of the entire situation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How about a nice game of chess?



22 guys on a field, full pads, and none of this protect-the-quarterback crap.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I understand it. My emotional response to this catastrophe is to let lose my beloved Air Force over Ukraine and problem-solved ... except that like so many things in human experience, the solution can create problems much bigger than the original.
> 
> Which is why I adhere to reason as my problem-solving heuristic.


Very close to my emotional response as well. I never served. I have no children or grandchildren. I'm not responsible for large numbers of civilians or Government personnel. When the mushrooms start sprouting, so what? I've had my fun and my marriage sucks. Yeah, let's blow stuff up! Easier than divorce court. 
As much as I would love to see Putin "desert stormed", it would be morally bankrupt of me to say "we should do it".

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## wlewisiii (Mar 5, 2022)

Interesting bit in The Atlantic today:


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/russia-ukraine-invasion-classified-intelligence/626557/





> Russia's invasion of Ukraine looks like a horrific Cold War throwback. Once again, a strongman rules in Moscow, Russian tanks are rolling across borders, and a democratic nation is fighting for its survival, street by street, day by day, armed with little more than Molotov cocktails and a fierce belief in freedom. For all the talk of emerging technologies and new threats, the violence in Ukraine feels raw and low-tech, and the world suddenly looks old again.
> 
> And yet, amid all these echoes of the past, Russia's invasion has ushered in one development that is altogether new and could dramatically change geopolitics in the future: the real-time public disclosure of highly classified intelligence.
> 
> Never before has the United States government revealed so much, in such granular detail, so fast and so relentlessly about an adversary. Each day over the past several weeks seemed to bring new warnings. Not vague, "Russia may or may not be up to something" kind of warnings, but "Here's the satellite imagery showing up to 175,000 Russian troops in these specific locations near the border" kind of warnings. Even as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that he had no plans to invade and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky complained that the U.S. was hyping the threat and roiling his economy, the intelligence disclosures kept coming—detailing updated troop numbers and locations, invasion timetables, casualty estimates, and more. It felt like watching a hurricane barreling toward landfall.

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## The Basket (Mar 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How about a nice game of chess?


Only nuclear war will show Vladimir who the boss is.

This is the way.

You have to out crazy the crazy.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

That I understand!


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What would you suggest?


Continue and increase shipments of MANPATS, MANPADS and other man portable weapons like mortars. Get them more Bayraktar TB-2 drones and any Ukraine-familiar strike aircraft along with their ordinance. Cancel any domestic legal restrictions to anyone wanting to join the ILTDU and facilitate their travel to Poland.

Is there something we can give the Ukrainians that can pinpoint and strike the launch points of these missiles hitting their civilians areas? Surely the West’s satellites might have an idea?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Very close to my emotional response as well. I never served. I have no children or grandchildren. I'm not responsible for large numbers of civilians or Government personnel. When the mushrooms start sprouting, so what? I've had my fun and my marriage sucks. Yeah, let's blow stuff up! Easier than divorce court.
> As much as I would love to see Putin "desert stormed", it would be morally bankrupt of me to say "we should do it".



Rob, serving in a branch, or not, or having a child, or not, doesn't change, hopefully, how we feel about our fellow humans. Having that emotional desire to gank the bastard is for me easily understood on an emotional level, but as you point out, on a moral and intellectual level it is bankrupt.

We all have skin in this game, every single one of us. Whether it's for our own skin or our sense of humanity, it's a difficult terrain to tread because no matter which way we wish to step, people will die.

The key is, to me, to set aside my own feelings and think about what this means for the world at large. My heart is with the Ukrainians, but what my feelings say would be worse for the world and humanity than what my rationality says.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

Just finished watching this from MAH, and while I get some of it I'd appreciate those more in the know giving some opinions if they're willing:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Rob, serving in a branch, or not, or having a child, or not, doesn't change, hopefully, how we feel about our fellow humans. Having that emotional desire to gank the bastard is for me easily understood on an emotional level, but as you point out, on a moral and intellectual level it is bankrupt.
> 
> We all have skin in this game, every single one of us. Whether it's for our own skin or our sense of humanity, it's a difficult terrain to tread because no matter which way we wish to step, people will die.
> 
> The key is, to me, to set aside my own feelings and think about what this means for the world at large. My heart is with the Ukrainians, but what my feelings say would be worse for the world and humanity than what my rationality says.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 5, 2022)

Amen, Brother!

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## WARSPITER (Mar 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> From Twitter: "One of the last Su-34s (board number "24 red"), built in 2018 and part of the 2nd Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 21st Mixed Aviation Division of the 14th Smolensk Red Banner Army of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Central Air Force"
> 
> View attachment 660279
> 
> ...


Thise two pics are a perfect illustration of the poor state of Russian maintenance ability.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If WWII had been fought with sarcasm rather than rounds, the Germans would have beaten the Brits -- and that's saying a lot, for this American who regards sarcasm, when done right, as an art.


Don't forget Britain had the Tweed Jacket Charm School and was producing Basil Fawlties since 1898 - fousands of em.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 5, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Don't forget Britain had the Tweed Jacket Charm School and was producing Basil Fawlties since 1898 - fousands of em.



I'm not too familiar with 'em, will look up.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 5, 2022)

Try the TV show Fawlty Towers for the end result.

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He is not flying a P-39.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> If he had been, would he have been shot down? Come now.


No. He just wouldn't have taken off. If that fat oinker is the pilot, he would been greased up fit in.

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> He's a porker! Could probably take a lot of Gs!
> 
> View attachment 660286


I think Putin got him pregnant and sent him trying to get out of child support.

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## ThomasP (Mar 6, 2022)

re ". . . Hell, there is not an A-10 pilot not waking up with a chubby after dreaming of that 40 mile convoy."

LMAO!! I am not an A-10 pilot but . . .

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re ". . . Hell, there is not an A-10 pilot not waking up with a chubby after dreaming of that 40 mile convoy."
> 
> LMAO!! I am not an A-10 pilot but . . .


I know, right?


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 6, 2022)

Remember, gentlemen,
The Geneva Convention prohibits subjecting prisoners to degrading and humiliating treatment.
I believe fat shaming would qualify as an offense. See you at the Hague.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

If this has already been posted, sorry but damn it's good...

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## pgeno71 (Mar 6, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Remember, gentlemen,
> The Geneva Convention prohibits subjecting prisoners to degrading and humiliating treatment.
> I believe fat shaming would qualify as an offense. See you at the Hague.


It depends on who is being fat shamed. At this point, I believe Russians are free game.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 6, 2022)



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## marathag (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Whilst it’s a great way to test NATO kit I hope the Alliance can replenish their armaments in case it all goes to sh#t.


Russians won't be able to use the excuse of export 'Monkey Models' being the cause of poor performance with the Iraqis.
This is the Ivan 'A-Team', supposedly the best they got

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Luftwaffe has no Tiger, the Heer (Army) operates them


correct


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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> From Twitter "Two portable 2D Squire ground-based surveillance radars and five AN / TPQ-36 Firefinder weapons detection radars will be delivered to Ukraine by the Dutch Ministry of Defense to counter Russian aggression."
> 
> View attachment 660278


are they going to deliver crews as well, or at least instructors and ask putin to hold for a moment to train crews of radars put them in service, train artilery units how to utilize this??


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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not one of those pilots in the Assad publicity shot look to be in good shape.
> 
> And X-Wing pilots have much better looking helmets!


explanation is very simple - money - Syria adventure was payed extra in USD - only high ranked and well connected pilots were able to go there

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

It's always been said when, especially the T-72, Russian equipment has been hammered by Western militaries, they were "monkey models" that weren't as good as that used by the Red Army. Yet now we see that isn't an excuse that works anymore.

This is supposed to be the A Team. The best training. The best gear. The best support.

And they're being hammered into the dirt.

Once upon a lifetime ago, we were told we had to kill 5 Soviet tanks (where I was, they would have been Czech T-72's) before we died. That would slow them enough for REFORGER to have time to work. I begin to wonder if we might have survived after all

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> He's a porker! Could probably take a lot of Gs!
> 
> View attachment 660286


With that belly tank he could go from UK all the way to Berlín escorting bombers, fight and go back!

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You can tell its a stinger. Russian built ones tend to have a lil more corkscrew.


Grom or Piorun also using guidance system similar to Stinger one, also have bigger range higher celling, heavier warhead more sensitive seaker - US Army selected Piorun as a Stinger replacement

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## Marcel (Mar 6, 2022)

Israel seems to take the mediator role. Let’s hope they get some results.

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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

A no fly zone obviously is a declaration of war on Russia and will be seen as such.

Problem is any NATO aircraft will be fired upon from Russian soil so do you attack SAM sites on Russian soil? Things will escalate. 

Obviously an out of shape pilot wouldn't fly in the west. But in a corrupt state where people have the right connection then it don't matter.

Back in the day the Russians took out of service all single engine aircraft like Su-17 and MiG-27 which would be useful in this environment.


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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

Did the Russians get it wrong?
The west has done very little of Chechnya or Georgia or 2014 invasion so why would they do anything now?

So why would the Russians not invade as they have no behaviour pattern to suggest otherwise.

Certainly wouldn't expect the severe sanctions or the west so openly arming Ukraine.

Good point about war as NATO is effectively at war. We are arming Ukraine and the sanctions are obviously going to send the Russian economy into the stone age. What exactly more obvious that we are at war do anyone need.

Without the threat of nuclear war then this would be on.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

Why? Blonde, blue eyed Ukrainians vs non-white other nationalities? Nah, couldn't be that obvious... 

More seriously, the war began in 2016 when Russia ensured the outcome of that US election. I do not wish to see us escalate above the nuclear threshold, but I will be the first to say that I believe that we have been at war this whole time and there are those who should fear Article III, Section 3 of the US Constitution...

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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

I live under the beautiful and benevolent rule of Queen Elizabeth II and therefore most of the world's problems are not mine. We probably caused most of them but that a you problem. 

However, we could be at war with Russia in a moment. Nuclear war in a moment. So yeah it's a big deal.

So maybe Ukraine is different because it involves NATO and nuclear weapons but also the genuine threat of Russia attacking a NATO member and UK going to war.

If Poland is getting all emotional and empathetic then that is a me problem because Poland could be the catalyst for Russian attacks.

Understand clearly. Let me make it crystal clear. We are at war and nuclear destruction of every human soul is only a shot away. So how is that not a big deal?

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## Marcel (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Why? Blonde, blue eyed Ukrainians vs non-white other nationalities? Nah, couldn't be that obvious...
> 
> More seriously, the war began in 2016 when Russia ensured the outcome of that US election. I do not wish to see us escalate above the nuclear threshold, but I will be the first to say that I believe that we have been at war this whole time and there are those who should fear Article III, Section 3 of the US Constitution...


The war for us began in 2014 when the Russians shot down MH17.

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

Now Putin calls sanctions a declaration of war. This dirty bastard stops at nothing. Russians are erecting statues os of Stalin and referring to him as a hero. That tells you one thing. Russians are vermin.


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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

I watched the video of the Russian helicopter going down and I want that for all Russians.


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## Marcel (Mar 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> Now Putin calls sanctions a declaration of war. This dirty bastard stops at nothing. Russians are erecting statues os of Stalin and referring to him as a hero. That tells you one thing. Russians are vermin.


I know quite a few Russians, all of them great guys. Let’s not decent into generalisation and hate propaganda, shall we?

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Very close to my emotional response as well. I never served. I have no children or grandchildren. I'm not responsible for large numbers of civilians or Government personnel. When the mushrooms start sprouting, so what? I've had my fun and my marriage sucks. Yeah, let's blow stuff up! Easier than divorce court.
> As much as I would love to see Putin "desert stormed", it would be morally bankrupt of me to say "we should do it".


I can sympathize with you as my situation is similar. I share a house with an estranged wife and my "Bark Angels" are all that I have to live for. It's a shame to have to admit it that but life is what it is. I was 4F during Vietnam and at 72 they most likely wouldn't accept me but I do know how to use a fire arm.


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## Marcel (Mar 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> I do know how to use a fire arm and would really like to to kill a Russian before I die.


Okay, this isn’t the discussion I want on this forum. Let’s stop right there!

To everybody: I’ll allow your opinions on the policy and actions of the Russian authorities and army. But I don’t allow unfounded general hatred towards the Rusian (or any) people in general. If I see anything like that in this thread, the experiment is over. I won’t issue any other warning. I hope that it’s clear.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 6, 2022)

Evil flourishes when good men do nothing - I think it goes like that.

What is being done by countries in response to this is certainly not nothing and has so far been tempered with common sense.

The good men in Russia itself must be allowed time make their case for stopping all this and it can happen as there are good men in every country
of the world. Sometimes it takes something like this for them to stand up and be counted.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 6, 2022)

Russian troops are protecting soft skinned vehicules with wood logs in vulnerable parts.

Also, the ukrainians mangling with road signs (either by removing or altering them) looks to be very effective in wrecking havoc with the russian supply chain.

Which puzzles me. Mean, we are (supposedly) in the 21st century, there are satélites all over the space with cameras looking down snaping photos. If the invasion was at least one year in the making as a Duma member claimed, there was more than enough time to get all the maps needed.

This is a very botched invasion, poorly planned and badly executed. The big problem is that Putin isn't a guy that could admit a mistake and backtrack. More likely he would rise the stakes and a nuclear exchange could not be ruled out at all.









Desperate Russian Rear-Area Troops Are Armoring Their Vehicles With Wood Logs


Absent better security, Russian drivers are doing whatever they can to survive Ukrainian ambushes.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Why? Blonde, blue eyed Ukrainians vs non-white other nationalities? Nah, couldn't be that obvious...


That explains why Europe is welcoming a million refugees. Make those Ukrainians into Syrians, Nigerians, Rohingya, Roma or Uyghurs and Europe says no thanks. Then again, my wife is Ukrainian-Canadian and I’m quite partial to the blonde, blue eyed, tough yet graceful women of Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Evil flourishes when good men do nothing - I think it goes like that.


There is no mushy middle, if you're Russian today (or German in 1933-45) and you're not resisting Russia's war on Ukraine, you're either complicit or complacent. One's motivations in either direction can vary from: self/familial preservation; to willful ignorance/disinterest; to firm belief in "the cause"; to plain old self advancement and gain.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

So, what happens if an Oligarch tries to fly his jet over EU airspace?



https://twitter.com/ruoligarchjets


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Why? Blonde, blue eyed Ukrainians vs non-white other nationalities? Nah, couldn't be that obvious...
> 
> More seriously, the war began in 2016 when Russia ensured the outcome of that US election. I do not wish to see us escalate above the nuclear threshold, but I will be the first to say that I believe that we have been at war this whole time and there are those who should fear Article III, Section 3 of the US Constitution...



Do not bring the 2016 election into this. That is a rabbit hole we will NOT go down in this forum. We still have rules on politics in this forum. This thread is about the Ukraine war, stick with it!

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Dimlee, I truly understand your sentiment, and I wish we could, however a no fly zone would end up being a disaster. You have to remember that there are approx 11,000 warheads pointed at each other.


"No-fly zone" is a vague definition. It can be provided by different means, for example, giving Ukraine SAMs and assisting with electronic countermeasures.

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

Another attempt to evacuate civilians from Irpin.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "No-fly zone" is a vague definition. It can be provided by different means, *for example, giving Ukraine SAMs and assisting with electronic countermeasures.*



We are doing those things the best we can. We are already skirting the line.

I really feel for you. Ukraine is being thrown under the bus. I wish it were not so, and I wish more than ever that we could do more. Unfortunately, we have to think of the entire European continent and North America as well. Literally billions of people. It’s not that simple.

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "No-fly zone" is a vague definition. It can be provided by different means, for example, giving Ukraine SAMs and assisting with electronic countermeasures.


introducing any complex armament ssystems is taking months or years before it become real threat for enemy - sorry to say so but giving Ukrainians anything may require more than 8 hours training is pointless

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> No. He just wouldn't have taken off. If that fat oinker is the pilot, he would been greased up fit in.



A P-39 carried Little Boy and Fat Man ... simultaneously.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We are doing those things the best we can. We are already skirting the line.
> 
> I really feel for you. Ukraine is being thrown under the bus. I wish it were not so, and I wish more than ever that we could do more. Unfortunately, we have to think of the entire European continent and North America as well. Literally billions of people. It’s not that simple.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That explains why Europe is welcoming a million refugees. Make those Ukrainians into Syrians, Nigerians, Rohingya, Roma or Uyghurs and Europe says no thanks. Then again, my wife is Ukrainian-Canadian and I’m quite partial to the blonde, blue eyed, tough yet graceful women of Ukraine.


Europe took in 1.3 million refugees back in 2015, that were fleeing wars in the middle east.

Europe has also taken in refugees from former colonies during times of civil unrest.

In this case, the Ukraine happens to be physically part of Europe, so the crisis will hit closer to home, than an area in Africa or eastern Asia.

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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> View attachment 660191


In terms of manpower (quantity), yes, that's true!

650000 active personnel and 350000 in reserve ... And that's just Army, no talking about IRGC traitors and terrorists. That looks good from a far ... 

But in terms of quality, Iran's army is nothing more than a walking museum. Small arms, big guns, Tanks, other heavy equipment, aircrafts, any thing else, the newest of them are +40 years old ... Completely outdated, complete obsolete. If they don't kill our men, we'll be so glad.

I didn't count morale and psychological matters ... If you add them, we'll be on top, but from bottom.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> are they going to deliver crews as well, or at least instructors and ask putin to hold for a moment to train crews of radars put them in service, train artilery units how to utilize this??


That's a good question - if I had to guess I bet they would send "contractors" there to give OJT and operate the system at the same time.

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## ARTESH (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Has this been verified? It is disturbing.


Unfortunately, yes. It is verified.

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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

One issue which is clear is the destruction of the Russian economy.

So...

Worker either don't get paid or his pay is worth a lot less.

So in reality he is working for free. The goods and services he once bought are either no longer available or too expensive.

So Ivan is not going to work for nothing.

He will down tools and walk.

The Russian economy is deader than fried chicken.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Over 11,000 Russian troops have been killed since the invasion began, Ukrainian military says


Over 11,000 Russian troops have been killed since the invasion began, Ukrainian military says




www.yahoo.com


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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2022)

I suspect the real number of Russians killed is somewhere between the 11000 Ukraine claims and the 500 that Russia admitted to a few days ago.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 6, 2022)

The Basket said:


> One issue which is clear is the destruction of the Russian economy.
> 
> So...
> 
> ...


No it isnt. Oil, 10% of western needs no less, gas a fast hinterland,China, puppet states etc. It will be more difficult to get some stuff but non western suppliers will buy or fill in needed. goods. It will not be a soviet economy were everything is scarse.


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## Glider (Mar 6, 2022)

Regarding the escalation risk. The one weapon that Russia used fairly freely in Syria and other conflicts, and yet hasn't been seen or even talked/speculated about in the Ukraine is Chemical Weapons.

Should he use those as he has done before, then most countries consider them to be weapons of mass destruction. The resulting furore, could easily be the trip wire for NATO to get involved. 

I do hope that someone through the backdoor communications that I am pretty confident are going on has explained this

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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That explains why Europe is welcoming a million refugees. Make those Ukrainians into Syrians, Nigerians, Rohingya, Roma or Uyghurs and Europe says no thanks. Then again, my wife is Ukrainian-Canadian and I’m quite partial to the blonde, blue eyed, tough yet graceful women of Ukraine.



Not just Europe. Back in 2015, Canada proudly announced that it would take in 25000 Syrian refugees. Now, the same Government announces that applications for Ukrainians would be "unlimited".


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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> No it isnt. Oil, 10% of western needs no less, gas a fast hinterland,China, puppet states etc. It will be more difficult to get some stuff but non western suppliers will buy or fill in needed. goods. It will not be a soviet economy were everything is scarse.


Can you provide any sources?

I can provide plenty of sources from economist even Russian ones that Russia is going to be economically annihilation.


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 6, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Can you provide any sources?
> 
> I can provide plenty of sources from economist even Russian ones that Russia is going to be economically annihilation.


For card payment they are locking in with china unionpay system.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Not just Europe. Back in 2015, Canada proudly announced that it would take in 25000 Syrian refugees. Now, the same Government announces that applications for Ukrainians would be "unlimited".


Ukrainians are essentially a founding European people of modern Canada. Everyone in Canada likes Ukrainians nowadays. Whereas Islamophobia was/is rampant back in 2015 - it will likely be 100 years after 9/11 before that subsides.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2022)

I agree in general but it's a bit of a stretch to call them a "founding people of modern Canada". That's another topic for a discussion elsewhere and at another time.

All I'm saying is that Marcel is right in observing that race is playing into the refugee selection process. It's not limited to a few countries nor is it the first time or the last.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

This is interesting:

_"Lt. Yevgeny Yarantsev of Ukraine said his country's soldiers fight differently than the Russians. The troops under his command organize in small, nimble units that can sneak up on and ambush the lumbering columns of Russian tanks."_

*Makes me think of the Finns during the Winter War with a modern twist.*

_"Lt. Dmitry Kovalensky, who had fought in a Russian tank unit and spoke at the behest of his Ukrainian captors, said he recently came under fire from an armed drone and shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles on a road near Sumy in northeastern Ukraine. "The whole column burned," he said.

Around the same time and a few miles away, at a makeshift Ukrainian military base in an abandoned building on the western edge of Kyiv, Ukrainian soldiers prepared for the same sort of ambushes that took out Kovalensky's unit."_









Russian Prisoners and Ukrainian Soldiers Describe Two Sides of the Conflict


KYIV, Ukraine — With hands still dirty from the battlefield, a dozen Russian prisoners of war sat, stony-faced, in a conference room of a Ukrainian news agency Saturday and described being captured after their armored columns were ambushed. Lt. Dmitry Kovalensky, who had fought in a Russian tank...




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There is no mushy middle, if you're Russian today you're either complicit or complacent.


So how do you classify those Russians who have protested against this invasion???

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how do you classify those Russians who have protested against this invasion???


Prisoners who may never be seen again.


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## Glider (Mar 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how do you classify those Russians who have protested against this invasion???


Personally I would class them as exceptionally brave. I honestly don't know if I would have that level of courage.

There is a very good chance that they will be treated harshly and it may impact their futures

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)



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## GTX (Mar 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> Prisoners who may never be seen again.


So neither complicit or complacent (to reference your earlier post)?

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## special ed (Mar 6, 2022)

Regarding the use of logs to protect trucks, I would counter with fire bombs as the fuel penetrates wood better than metal.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Smart, independently guided termite bombs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> There is a very good chance that they will be treated harshly and it may impact their futures



Classic British understatement if I've ever seen it.

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## at6 (Mar 6, 2022)

I can't help but wonder how POWs are being treated. The Russians are notorious for mistreatment.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Smart, independently guided termite bombs.



Launched by you-know-who to soften up the target --

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

BRILLIANT! I never would of thought of that. A red white and blue weapon system too. Appropriate.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how do you classify those Russians who have protested against this invasion???





at6 said:


> Prisoners who may never be seen again.





GTX said:


> So neither complicit or complacent (to reference your earlier post)?


Complicit until their protests are effective and Putin is gone. Only results matter.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

Well, now it seems the source of all our trouble is from Japan...

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> introducing any complex armament ssystems is taking months or years before it become real threat for enemy - sorry to say so but giving Ukrainians anything may require more than 8 hours training is pointless


"8 hours training"... Ukraine is fighting for 10 days already.
Poland is the next or one of the next. I hope your politicians do understand that.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well, now it seems the source of all our trouble is from Japan...



It explains a lot.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how do you classify those Russians who have protested against this invasion???


I omitted the important part in error. Fixed it.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Poland is the next or one of the next. I hope your politicians do understand that.


Wouldn't Moldova be next? They're a breakaway Republic, not in NATO or the EU and are essentially Ukraine Light.

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We are doing those things the best we can. We are already skirting the line.
> 
> I really feel for you. Ukraine is being thrown under the bus. I wish it were not so, and I wish more than ever that we could do more. Unfortunately, we have to think of the entire European continent and North America as well. Literally billions of people. It’s not that simple.


Of course, it's not simple. But so far the position declared by NATO *is* simple: we do not interfere. 
Simple. Simply stupid. No kind of "ambiguity", a kind that was used towards Taiwan.
This is not an "appeasement" anymore. This is an encouragement. The aggressor now feels free to continue without any fear for his flanks. And he got the signal: NATO is morally weak.

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "8 hours training"... Ukraine is fighting for 10 days already.
> Poland is the next or one of the next. I hope your politicians do understand that.


please understand my point - im backing all possible effective help we may deliver to Ukraine - key word here is " effective". Training single soldier in effective use of Javelin or Piorun missiles taking couple hours and both of this weapon system are effective. If Poland will give to Ukraine Mig 29 it is possible to make immediate use of this, the same with 2S1 SP guns or any other well known by Ukrainians equipment - this is as well effective help. Giving to Ukraine complex wepon system they dont know it is not effective help just creating illusions.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Wouldn't Moldova be next? They're a breakaway Republic, not in NATO or the EU and are essentially Ukraine Light.


Moldova is a former territory of Romania with a large ethnic Romanian population and as recently as last year, there was talk of reunification.

Russia invading Moldova *may* see Romania becoming involved more than politically.

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> please understand my point - im backing all possible effective help we may deliver to Ukraine - key word here is " effective". Training single soldier in effective use of Javelin or Piorun missiles taking couple hours and both of this weapon system are effective. If Poland will give to Ukraine Mig 29 it is possible to make immediate use of this, the same with 2S1 SP guns or any other well known by Ukrainians equipment - this is as well effective help. Giving to Ukraine complex wepon system they dont know it is not effective help just creating illusions.


I do understand your point and thank you for your support. I do not understand the number of hours (days, weeks) as a measure of effectiveness. Imagine Polish pilots in 1940 who are told: no Spitfires for you, never, because the training takes a long time.
Training for the use of complex weapon systems creates not illusions but a firm background for future actions. This is a long war.
And "short term" and "long term" assistance are not mutually exclusive.

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## Dimlee (Mar 6, 2022)

Interesting.
This pilot of Su-30SM says (1:25) that just before his aircraft was hit by two missiles, communication with the base was almost lost.
Probably jamming is still possible.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> This is interesting:
> 
> _"Lt. Yevgeny Yarantsev of Ukraine said his country's soldiers fight differently than the Russians. The troops under his command organize in small, nimble units that can sneak up on and ambush the lumbering columns of Russian tanks."_
> 
> ...



This all points back to lack of accurate planning by the Russian military. I mean, what sort of fight did they think they were getting into? Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in terms of outright military power. Did Russian military leaders really expect a big tank battle? Tanks are absolutely useless against an insurgency so why send them into Ukraine….or were they simply supposed to be an overwhelming show of strength that would cow the Ukrainians into surrender? If so, then the tanks would be useful for the victory parade through the streets of Kyiv. 

Unfortunately for Moscow, it seems the Ukrainian military refused to be overwhelmed….indeed, they weren’t even whelmed. They were distinctly underwhelmed, and adopted tactics that enable them to inflict losses on Russian forces by use of these nimble insurgency tactics. Has the Russian military really forgotten ALL the lessons from their experiences in Afghanistan?

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I do understand your point and thank you for your support. I do not understand the number of hours (days, weeks) as a measure of effectiveness. Imagine Polish pilots in 1940 who are told: no Spitfires for you, never, because the training takes a long time.
> Training for the use of complex weapon systems creates not illusions but a firm background for future actions. This is a long war.
> And "short term" and "long term" assistance are not mutually exclusive.


actually it has happen - first two polish squadrons have been equipped with Hurricanes because Spitfires as prime equipment has been reserved for british squadrons - it was clear misundersanding of where factor laying - most of the polish pilots have been well trained battle hardened veterans - in british squadrons core of pilots has been kids with 10 to 20 hours in spitfires - first 126 aerial victories of 303 sq has been done with this Hurricanes. Problem is war is now, and we have to think how effectively repeal russians right now - im pretty sure that Ukraine will have access to most of the complex weapon systems as Poland or any other NATO country has. Also im strongly backing Ukraine membership in NATO and EU. All this not just because of my great personal sympathy to Ukraine but also because i strongly believe that it is best we can do for Europe and the world. We may not allow Russia to became superpower. Marshal Pilsudski clearly expressed opinion that for Russia Ukraine is necessary factor for superpower status. Im not biggest fan of Marshal but i think he has been right in this matter.

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## J_P_C (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Interesting.
> This pilot of Su-30SM says (1:25) that just before his aircraft was hit by two missiles, communication with the base was almost lost.
> Probably jamming is still possible.



scarry - it was flight wthout any clear orders by statement of pilot - they just treating them as a cannon fodder

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Of course, it's not simple. But so far the position declared by NATO *is* simple: we do not interfere.
> Simple. Simply stupid. No kind of "ambiguity", a kind that was used towards Taiwan.
> This is not an "appeasement" anymore. This is an encouragement. The aggressor now feels free to continue without any fear for his flanks. And he got the signal: NATO is morally weak.



Dimlee, I am sure you are thinking with emotion because I know you are a rational and smart man my friend. You know very well what would actually happen if war broke out between the NATO countries and Russia.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

For what it’s worth, I‘d be yelling “stop this mental masturbation and stop this evil now! “ too, if I were in Dimlee’s place.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You know very well what would actually happen if war broke out between the NATO countries and Russia.


Given the itchiness of a certain trigger finger and the post cold war de-emphasis on ASW, do we know where all the boomers are in real time, and do they all have their "tails"?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Thanks Wes. I wasn’t enough of an insomniac.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> For what it’s worth, I‘d be yelling “stop this mental masturbation and stop this evil now! “ too, if I were in Dimlee’s place.



I agree. I would too. And I honestly feel for him and his fellow Ukranians. I wish we could do much more.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

I miss the griping about Covid.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I miss the griping about Covid.


Tempest in a teapot. Now we're on to the big stuff.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Someone did let that Japanese demon out.


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## Glider (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



What struck me about this video was the guns, all lined up close to each other, without any attempt to dig them in. They were simply asking to be knocked out

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Hubris or inexperience?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> What struck me about this video was the guns, all lined up close to each other, without any attempt to dig them in. They were simply asking to be knocked out


Hopefully some of that stuff is useable and finding new homes.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hubris or inexperience?


Both?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 6, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> View attachment 660396


Funny but sadly true

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## Dana Bell (Mar 6, 2022)

Two observations:

Putin doesn't have to believe anything he's saying - he just has to believe that there are others in the West who _do_ believe it.

Second, I can guarantee that I will never see a nuclear war break out with Russia. Of course, I make that guarantee because I live 2.5 miles from Ground Zero: the Pentagon. If a nuclear war breaks out, I won't be here to see it...

Just some cheery thoughts for the day,



Dana

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

From Twitter:

"91165" in better days











It looks like some of the helicopters were painted prior to this "military action."

"39th Helicopter Regiment based at Dzhankoy Air Base, Crimea"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Has the Russian military really forgotten ALL the lessons from their experiences in Afghanistan?



Another thing that's been rattling around in my head about institutional memory is -- where did the WWII lessons from the Red Army go? How do you forget logistics in a country this large? Didn't they keep better maps so that airborne units aren't captured asking for directions?

Zhukov would be making assignments to penal battalions _en masse_ in this clusterfuck.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

Some more from Twitter:

Mi-35M (RF-13017)





























ДвіЩ


Залишки збитого російського гелікоптера




t.co

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Someone did let that Japanese demon out.



Who? Who- who?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Funny but sadly true



I read an op-ed in Bloomberg this morning arguing otherwise. Here's the gist, but the full article is worth the read:

_If the “no limits” partnership announced between China and Russia on the eve of the Winter Olympics amounted to a blueprint for a new world order, it’s already looking a little frayed around the edges. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left Beijing struggling to straddle a line between its cardinal foreign-policy principle of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and support for an ally. That discomfort has set off a flurry of speculation over what China knew about President Vladimir Putin’s intentions.

Whatever the conclusion, it doesn’t look flattering for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Russia’s aggression has led to international isolation, galvanized a united front of opposition across Europe, the U.S. and beyond, and sent ripples through financial markets. Even a pro-Russian autocratic leader such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban has agreed to back sanctions against Moscow. Was Beijing aware of Putin’s plans and went ahead with its pact with Russia regardless, hitching itself to a country that was about to turn into a pariah? The alternative explanation is that Putin kept his hand hidden. If that’s the case, it hardly helps to burnish Xi’s reputation as a master strategist steering China’s path back to greatness, in a year when he will seek a precedent breaking third leadership term.

[...]_









Did Xi Jinping Get Played by Putin on Ukraine?


From the awkward public discourse to its failure to evacuate citizens in danger, all signs point to the likelihood that Beijing was kept in the dark about the invasion.




www.bloomberg.com





Granted that the above is an opinion piece, it makes some good points and I tend to agree with the author, that the Russians weren't transparent with China. China's courting of Putin is probably going to come to an end as a result of this invasion. Putin will be having his hand out for help, but I think the Chinese are pretty irked that he's galvanized the democracies, _and_ placed them into the position of arguing for their own "territorial integrity" while having to address Russia's lack of respect for that principle after they had such a grand public pronouncement. They don't like looking like fools and this will be no different, I think.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)



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## The Basket (Mar 6, 2022)

Javelin goes boom.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

And as the Russians continue to be opposed, they're getting more vicious.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 6, 2022)

This is the part of war I hate!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Who? Who- who?


Scheming Yankee Imperialist tools of Wall Street of course. 

Hey, is China still communist or what?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 6, 2022)

Damn...

Russian troops keep that up, I seriously doubt Ukraine forces will no longer make an effort to take prisoners.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey, is China still communist or what?


Very much so.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 6, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is the part of war I hate!



So what part do you like?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

Aircraft identification posters.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 6, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> So what part do you like?


The stylish uniforms, the fancy equipment, things that go boom. 
I did a tour in Iraq, so I'm used to scenes of destruction, but the human cost of war has always disturbed me.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The stylish uniforms, the fancy equipment, things that go boom.
> I did a tour in Iraq, so I'm used to scenes of destruction, but the human cost of war has always disturbed me.



The only thing I liked about the war I helped (in the rear with the gear where my dumb ass belonged) was the sense of mission. The book became recommendations and the mission became primal.

It was only later that I gave thought to how, even indirectly, I was helping to kill a shitload of folk.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Scheming Yankee Imperialist tools of Wall Street of course.
> 
> Hey, is China still communist or what?



lol, you missed this joke --


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## SaparotRob (Mar 6, 2022)

D'oh!

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## JDCAVE (Mar 6, 2022)

I don’t know much about this sort of thing, but I wonder if perhaps an effective strategy/weapon would be saturating some of these cities with snipers at this rage of the “game”? The effect on morale might be considerable.

*Edit:* “rage” I meant “stage”…or did I mean “rage”?

Jim

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

“Poland wants to donate its old MiGs to Ukraine. But there's a catch — it needs U.S. jets.”









White House weighs 3-way deal to get fighter jets to Ukraine


Poland wants to donate its old MiGs to Ukraine. But there’s a catch — it needs U.S. jets.




www.politico.com


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> “Poland wants to donate its old MiGs to Ukraine. But there's a catch — it needs U.S. jets.”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Saw that and we had this discussion the other day - right now Poland has a sizeable F-35 order coming. If it was a perfect world it would be great to peel their aircraft off the current production line and hand them over, but for a number of reasons previously explained, I really doubt that's going to happen. Now what I think is do-able is possibly sending them some newer F-16s that might be temporally stored at Davis Monthan or deploying a National Guard unit to Poland to support this "gap" until dedicated F-16 can be loaned to Poland until their F-35 order comes in. In either case this will be a time consuming process unless a lot of red tape can be cut, but the biggest time consumer I see is properly configuring the aircraft to meet Poland's needs.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Saw that and we had this discussion the other day - right now Poland has a sizeable F-35 order coming. If it was a perfect world it would be great to peel their aircraft off the current production line and hand them over, but for a number of reasons previously explained, I really doubt that's going to happen. Now what I think is do-able is possibly sending them some newer F-16s that might be temporally stored at Davis Monthan or deploying a National Guard unit to Poland to support this "gap" until dedicated F-16 can be loaned to Poland until their F-35 order comes in. In either case this will be a time consuming process unless a lot of red tape can be cut, but the biggest time consumer I see is properly configuring the aircraft to meet Poland's needs.


My wonder was if fighters is where Ukraine needed the most help? Surely they need Sams and antitank.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> And as the Russians continue to be opposed, they're getting more vicious.




Fucking bastards.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The only thing I liked about the war I helped (in the rear with the gear where my dumb ass belonged) was the sense of mission. The book became recommendations and the mission became primal.
> 
> It was only later that I gave thought to how, even indirectly, I was helping to kill a shitload of folk.



The only thing I liked about war was getting on a plane back to Germany to my family. The rest of it can go fuck itself.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The only thing I liked about war was getting on a plane back to Germany to my family. The rest of it can go fuck itself.



Being single helped. War is for the young.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My wonder was if fighters is where Ukraine needed the most help? Surely they need Sams and antitank.


It seems to me they need a good multi-role aircraft. Their MiG-29s were modified a few years ago for a strike capability, so if they get the Polish MiG-29s perhaps they can possibly help in a CAP role


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I don’t know much about this sort of thing, but I wonder if perhaps an effective strategy/weapon would be saturating some of these cities with snipers at this rage of the “game”? The effect on morale might be considerable.
> 
> *Edit:* “rage” I meant “stage”…or did I mean “rage”?
> 
> Jim



Cities sponge up offensive troops very well. Snipers are useful, but even without them rubble makes for good defense.

I suspect we haven't seen the worst of Russian losses.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It seems to me they need a good multi-role aircraft. Their MiG-29s were modified a few years ago for a strike capability, so if they get the Polish MiG-29s perhaps they can possibly help in a CAP role


Even if the thus far surviving Ukrainian pilots are experienced with the MiG-29 in a CAP role would they necessarily be able to identify and accurately strike ground targets? Seems akin to asking a F-22 pilot to swap to an A-10.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Being single helped. War is for the young.



I was 23. My wife was 20. We got married 5 months prior (and only 2 months after getting home from my other deployment).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I was 23. My wife was 21. We got married 5 months prior (and only 2 months after getting home from my other deployment).



On the other hand, I had "no deeds to do, no promises to keep." Without an attachment at home, it was fun, until the 21-hour days hit. I liked and volunteered for Prime BEEF duty.

I can understand why a family man might disagree.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Even if the thus far surviving Ukrainian pilots are experienced with the MiG-29 in a CAP role *would they necessarily be able to identify and accurately strike ground targets? * Seems akin to asking a F-22 pilot to swap to an A-10.


They can. They can also work in coordination with bomb carrying aircraft. Remember, there are many Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace, making it harder for the Russians to support their troops will make it that much easier on the outnumbered Ukrainian forces. I'm not sure how the Polish MiG-29s are configured, but the way the Ukraine forces have been fighting, I'm sure they'll make good use of what ever they can get. I'm sure 
J
 J_P_C
can give some good insight on how Polish MiG-29s are configured.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> On the other hand, I had "no deeds to do, no promises to keep." Without an attachment at home, it was fun, until the 21-hour days hit. I liked and volunteered for Prime BEEF duty.
> 
> I can understand why a family man might disagree.



I went off to Kosovo on a NATO peace keeping mission for 10 months, came home for 5 months (during which I got married, spent a month at Primary Leadership Development Course (PLDC), spent a month in the field training, and a month at the range re-qualifying and practicing door gunnery) and then flew off to Iraq for a year. I felt burnt out.

Don’t take me wrong. I made the best of it, and I will always cherish the brotherhood and camaraderie, but overall that was 22 months of suck.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I went off to Kosovo on a NATO peace keeping mission for 10 months, came home for 5 months (during which I got married, spent a month at Primary Leadership Development Course (PLDC), spent a month in the field training, and a month at the range re-qualifying and practicing door gunnery) and then flew off to Iraq for a year. I felt burnt out.
> 
> Don’t take me wrong. I made the best of it, and I will always cherish the brotherhood and camaraderie, but overall that was 22 months of suck.



I ain't taking you wrong, brotha, and I sure respect your service.

I had the luxury of a girlfriend back home while I was off gallivanting. Different thang.

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## tyrodtom (Mar 6, 2022)

I'm following this situation very closely.
My daughter works as a scheduler for a organisation called Mercy Chefs, they feed first responders , and victims, at floods and other disasters.
I didn't think they had ever deployed internationally , but they now have people in Poland, or Romania, or both.
They co-ordinate with local churches, in the areas where they deploy.

She is wanting to go, and her 21 year old daughter. The arrangements will take at least over a week or more , I hope.
I know how she feels, I felt the same need a 50+ years ago.
Sometimes you can't just stand by and watch. 

I advised her, right now Romania, and Poland seems safe, and the refugees will probably be there for quite some time even after whatever happens in the Ukraine, happens.
But if things go bad, they'll go very bad, very fast.

Maybe I'm about to get a better understanding of what my parents went through when I was in Vietnam.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 6, 2022)

Once again, I'm reminded that I was very lucky to be a cold war only soldier. My M-60A3 TTS tank in Germany never had to do it's mission, I trained for years later in the guard and reserves and even when Gulf One came up we weren't called up and I spent it at the BN S2 level Intel Analyst school at Ft Huachuca instead. 

They did cut me orders for Kosovo but rescinded them when it was realized I was too short and that with my 2 permanent profiles (back and knee injuries) I wasn't going to be re-enlisting any more. 

I'm glad I was there, I'm glad I got to enjoy the fun parts but equally I'm glad it never came down to it for real for me.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 6, 2022)

tyrodtom said:


> I'm following this situation very closely.
> My daughter works as a scheduler for a organisation called Mercy Chefs, they feed first responders , and victims, at floods and other disasters.
> I didn't think they had ever deployed internationally , but they now have people in Poland, or Romania, or both.
> They co-ordinate with local churches, in the areas where they deploy.
> ...



May she be well and do good work. We never stop worrying, do we?

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Saw that and we had this discussion the other day - right now Poland has a sizeable F-35 order coming. If it was a perfect world it would be great to peel their aircraft off the current production line and hand them over, but for a number of reasons previously explained, I really doubt that's going to happen. Now what I think is do-able is possibly sending them some newer F-16s that might be temporally stored at Davis Monthan or deploying a National Guard unit to Poland to support this "gap" until dedicated F-16 can be loaned to Poland until their F-35 order comes in. In either case this will be a time consuming process unless a lot of red tape can be cut, but the biggest time consumer I see is properly configuring the aircraft to meet Poland's needs.


one of my friend in US send me message that both of this thing will be done - a wing of F15 will be assigned as a temporary boost of air defence of Poland and meanwhile used F16 will be refurbished for PAF - i hope will be rised to the V standard as well but who knows

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> They can. They can also work in coordination with bomb carrying aircraft. Remember, there are many Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace, making it harder for the Russians to support their troops will make it that much easier on the outnumbered Ukrainian forces. I'm not sure how the Polish MiG-29s are configured, but the way the Ukraine forces have been fighting, I'm sure they'll make good use of what ever they can get. I'm sure
> J
> J_P_C
> can give some good insight on how Polish MiG-29s are configured.


this are pretty much standard early 9.12 series machines with modificatiions added to the communication gear and IFF system to make this airplane more NATO compatible. except medium raenge R27 missiles (very few left on stock), it may carry R73 - very effective one, working with helmet mounted sights. for the A/G weapon except ex soviet stuff may be transferred couple polish made - mainly thermobaric bombs, cluster bombs and mine laying containers similar in function to MW1 designed for Tornado.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 7, 2022)

If there’s one thing for certain as I watch vids from this war is that VVS is now wholly adopted. Turn your phone folks.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 7, 2022)



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## Glider (Mar 7, 2022)

Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews has noted that Russia's takeover of the Ukraine is stalling, with a key weakness likely being a lack of trucks to transport supplies to forces on the ground.

"So they have certain very fancy pieces of equipment, what they lack is the ability to operate the complex operations needed to utilise those," 

"There was far too much obsession with weapons and numbers of weapons, and not looking at the fundamentals of military power on which the campaign would be waged, and that's a general problem," said the author of _How the War was Won_.

When you remember I think it was General Zhukov who once observed that the most valuable piece of Lend Lease, was the trucks supplied by the USA. It makes you believe that lessons were not learned.

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> They can. They can also work in coordination with bomb carrying aircraft. Remember, there are many Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace, making it harder for the Russians to support their troops will make it that much easier on the outnumbered Ukrainian forces. I'm not sure how the Polish MiG-29s are configured, but the way the Ukraine forces have been fighting, I'm sure they'll make good use of what ever they can get. I'm sure
> J
> J_P_C
> can give some good insight on how Polish MiG-29s are configured.


In my opinion, their primary task would be air defence. As of today, RF's ground offensive stalled in most places and they switched to missile launches from different platforms. The last raid on Vinnytsia was done from the Black Sea, most probably. 8 cruise missiles.

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> this are pretty much standard early 9.12 series machines with modificatiions added to the communication gear and IFF system to make this airplane more NATO compatible. except medium raenge R27 missiles (very few left on stock), it may carry R73 - very effective one, working with helmet mounted sights. for the A/G weapon except ex soviet stuff may be transferred couple polish made - mainly thermobaric bombs, cluster bombs and mine laying containers similar in function to MW1 designed for Tornado.


Can they be effective against low flying cruise missiles, what do you think?


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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

This map can be considered as over-optimistic on the 11th day of the invasion and after all news headlines... But probably it gives a more realistic picture than Kremlin's briefings.
Source:

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> This map can be considered as over-optimistic on the 11th day of the invasion and after all news headlines... But probably it gives a more realistic picture than Kremlin's briefings.
> Source:
> 
> 
> View attachment 660446





 Dimlee
the red lines are the roads actually ocupied by RF?

I mean, they don't control the terrain outside them?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 7, 2022)

Ukrainian Family's Dash for Safety Ends in Death


IRPIN, Ukraine — The bridge was just a shell of its old self, blown up days earlier by Ukrainian soldiers intent on slowing the Russian advance on the capital, Kyiv, but battered as it was, it offered a lifeline to civilians desperate to flee the fighting. On Sunday, as Ukrainian refugees were...




www.yahoo.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> All this not just because of my great personal sympathy to Ukraine but also because i strongly believe that it is best we can do for Europe and the world. We may not allow Russia to became superpower. Marshal Pilsudski clearly expressed opinion that for Russia Ukraine is necessary factor for superpower status. Im not biggest fan of Marshal but i think he has been right in this matter.


Agree wholeheartedly. In the history of the Russian Civil War, there is a famous quote that can be translated as _"even with the devil but against the Bolsheviks"_. It is attributed to different persons as Pyotr Wrangel, Pyotr Krasnov, Andrei Shkuro and also to Marshal Pilsudski.
East/Central Europe is a bit luckier today as we need no "devil" to be allied with. Just react fast and decisively, help your (de-jure and de-facto) allies. Stand for your values, - against new "bolsheviks" or whatever they are called today.

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Dimlee
> the red lines are the roads actually ocupied by RF?
> 
> I mean, they don't control the terrain outside them?


Yes, that is exactly the point. They don't have enough troops to control the terrain and villages and small towns of no strategic value.

One of my business acquaintances operates a factory in the south. RF's units arrived 2 days after the Ukrainian force has left. Entered the office and declared they will set up their base on the territory. All factory personnel refused to cooperate and went home. A few hours later, Russian units left the factory and the town and headed north, leaving no troops in that area.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 660447
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This tragic episode was covered on the CBC National news last night. An update from his morning with a shortened, yet still graphic video here:



https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2010114627972

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## rochie (Mar 7, 2022)

Hard Hitting Video broadcast on Sky here yesterday









Ukraine invasion: Young mother collapses in boyfriend's arms after toddler killed in Russian shell attack


Difficult to watch footage shows an unconscious 18-month-old boy being rushed to hospital after his home was shelled in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.




news.sky.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Yes, that is exactly the point. They don't have enough troops to control the terrain and villages and small towns of no strategic value.
> 
> One of my business acquaintances operates a factory in the south. RF's units arrived 2 days after the Ukrainian force has left. Entered the office and declared they will set up their base on the territory. All factory personnel refused to cooperate and went home. A few hours later, Russian units left the factory and the town and headed north, leaving no troops in that area.


Hardly what could be called an invasión.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 7, 2022)

rochie said:


> Hard Hitting Video broadcast on Sky here yesterday
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Tragic

Would love to see video of Putin caught in a mortar barrage. With sound.

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## rochie (Mar 7, 2022)

yes, so would I.

caught that yesterday as i was flicking channels, incredibly moving footage


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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Hardly what could be called an invasión.


It is an invasion alright. Poorly executed.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Tragic
> 
> Would love to see video of Putin caught in a mortar barrage. With sound.


For years I've been hoping Putin gets a touch of polonium flu. A mortar barrage might be nice.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It is an invasion. Poorly executed.


As we say in Spain, una mierda pinchada en un palo* of an invasion.

*A shit in a stick

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

What has baffled me for years, is how the Russian people, finally free of the Communist yoke, allowed Putin to go from President, to special advisor to the President then to long-term leader of the state, etc.

Sort of reminds me of a certain Corporal who managed to weasel his way into absolute power...

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## Crimea_River (Mar 7, 2022)

Control the message to the masses.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What has baffled me for years, is how the Russian people, finally free of the Communist yoke, allowed Putin to go from President, to special advisor to the President then to long-term leader of the state, etc.
> 
> Sort of reminds me of a certain Corporal who managed to weasel his way into absolute power...


It isn't a very different history.

A once powerful nation loses a war due to (allegedly) an inside treason with help from the outside and the anti... (fill with the apropiate nationality) where everybody profits save the good people of the nation.

Then one leader came with a message of unity and national rebirth and pride and... voilà! the recipe for disaster is ready.

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Can they be effective against low flying cruise missiles, what do you think?


with AWACS or working ground radar system support will works - 29's is carrying pulse-doppler radar, it means locating targets flying in ground clutter is theoretically possible - with underscore of "theoretically". Because of weather KOLS system (thermolocator) may be more effective than radar but still within limited range. Considering short legs of -29 guidance support is rather necessary.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What has baffled me for years, is how the Russian people, finally free of the Communist yoke, allowed Putin to go from President, to special advisor to the President then to long-term leader of the state, etc.
> 
> Sort of reminds me of a certain Corporal who managed to weasel his way into absolute power...


Possibly because those same people never knew freedom of speech or press. From centuries of serfdom to worker’s paradise. 

They didn’t stand a chance.

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## soulezoo (Mar 7, 2022)

If only we could get them some P-39's.... hmm.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

I hear they need trucks. Has Lend-Lease been embargoed yet?

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## The Basket (Mar 7, 2022)

Problem is tank.
You have to have truck and tanker and transporter and some form of engineering vehicle to tow it or recover it and then train the crew and the provide food and supply and ammunition and then you need maintenance facilities and supply facilities and somewhere for the crew to live and all I wanted was a Tank!!

Army is like a chain. It will snap at its weakest link and then be useless.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Stand for your values, - against new "bolsheviks" or whatever they are called today.


"Putinskis"?

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Putinskis"?


Putinicks?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 7, 2022)

In addition to the now infamous Bayraktar TB2 Ukraine is operating their domestically designed UA-Dynamics Punisher. It flies automatically to the coordinates of its targets - coordinates likely precisely and in real-time provided by NATO recon satellites. 









Ukraine's small combat drone "The Punisher" destroys Russian supply lines


Ukraine is deploying a small undetectable drone called "The Punisher" to hit Russian supply lines and it has proven to be successful.




interestingengineering.com







The Russians have basically become every weapon designers (and r/c hobbyists) test case.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Putinskis"?


Gentlemen, the answer is obvious. 

Putzes

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

You guys do know what a putz is, right?

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 7, 2022)

Not all of us are Nyaukers, Rob.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 7, 2022)

Of course we all do, but why you mentioned it is a mystery

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 7, 2022)

Or more American perhaps

Another Putz





another

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 7, 2022)

Or more learned

Putz, MD

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## Marcel (Mar 7, 2022)

I’m usually not one to source a YouTube video in a discussion, but I thought this video did a good job to explain so no-fly zones, so I make an exception here. [youtube]

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 7, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I’m usually not one to source a YouTube video in a discussion, but I thought this video did a good job to explain so no-fly zones, so I make an exception here. [youtube]



With the thousand or more MANPADS now in Ukrainian hands I'd think much of Ukraine is a no-fly zone, for the Russians. The Ukrainians can keep flying their drones.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Of course we all do, but why you mentioned it is a mystery
> 
> View attachment 660484


Well I’ll be.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Or more American perhaps
> 
> Another Putz
> 
> ...


Forgot about him.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 7, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Or more learned
> 
> Putz, MD
> 
> View attachment 660486


Yikes. My bad, my Brother.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 7, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 7, 2022)

That supply convoy getting hit reminds me of this old classic:

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Putinskis"?


We call them "orcs" today.

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## Dimlee (Mar 7, 2022)

International Legion in the outskirts of Kyiv.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

Слава Украйна !

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It is an invasion alright. Poorly executed.



"Invasion", or an invitation to insurrection?

What sort of unit doesn't guard its communications? Wow. Just wow.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 7, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 7, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I’m usually not one to source a YouTube video in a discussion, but I thought this video did a good job to explain so no-fly zones, so I make an exception here. [youtube]




I'm going to watch your vid in a moment. When I opened it in Youtube, I saw this video listed on the sidebar as related, and watched it. I think McMaster makes some good points.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With the thousand or more MANPADS now in Ukrainian hands I'd think much of Ukraine is a no-fly zone, for the Russians. The Ukrainians can keep flying their drones.



MANPADS have altitude restrictions that limit their effectiveness.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> MANPADS have altitude restrictions that limit their effectiveness.


It appears that the Russians are not aware of this, so far...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It appears that the Russians are not aware of this, so far...



Right? They're playing into the strengths of the Ukrainians both on the ground and in the air. It's almost like they believed they'd win just by showing up.

Ask Mike Tyson how that worked out.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 7, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Is Vitaly Gerasimov related to Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? They're both from Kazan, Tatar, and there are some facial similarities. 

Vitaly Gerasimov:






Valery Gerasimov:





According to Wikipedia (yes, I know...) Valery Gerasimov was born in 1955 and was married with one son. Vitaly Gerasimov was born in 1977. Was Vitaly the son of Valery?


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## The Basket (Mar 7, 2022)

Russian aircrafts have shortage of guided weapons. Which means dumbs bombs or rockets.

So the way is to go low.

I was under the impression that Ukraine did have big SAM like the S-300 so not sure about flying at high altitude.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 7, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Russian aircrafts have shortage of guided weapons. Which means dumbs bombs or rockets.


How can a reputed (clearly undeserved) top grade airforce not have LGBs or other precision-guided munitions? How did the VVS expect to fight NATO? These guys wouldn‘t get through NATO’s three Baltic members before they ran out of strike-aircraft.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 7, 2022)

If you've got an hour, it's worth the watch.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How can a reputed (clearly undeserved) top grade airforce not have LGBs or other precision-guided munitions? How did the VVS expect to fight NATO? These guys wouldn‘t get through NATO’s three Baltic members before they ran out of strike-aircraft.


The Russians have them, but not in large quantities.

Their adventure in the Syrian civil war drained them of a large chunk of their stockpile and their economy has been such, that they've been slow to build back their numbers.

For this foray into the Ukraine, Russia appears to act as though it would be a quick action and advanced hardware hasn't been used.

I will also add, that with tensions between Russia and NATO being what it is, I suspect Putin is going to hold the top-notch gear in reserve if the sh*t hits the fan.

And he will most certainly need it.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 7, 2022)

Bwa-hah-hah-ha!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suspect Putin is going to hold the top-notch gear in reserve if the sh*t hits the fan.


Indeed. The VVS has 1,300 fighter and fixed wing strike aircraft. We’re not seeing them over Ukraine in any large numbers. 

Lord knows how he’s going to fund the replacement of their Ukraine losses when this is over. Russia‘s going to end up as a Chinese vassal state, like Pakistan.


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## at6 (Mar 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Gentlemen, the answer is obvious.
> 
> Putzes


More like Putos.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

By the way, the Voyenno Vozdushnye Sily (VVS) merged with the Voyska Vozdushno Kosmicheskoy Oborony (VVKO) back in 2015 to form the Vozdushno Kosmicheskiye Sily (VKS).

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## WARSPITER (Mar 7, 2022)

The other problem for Russia is the ability to economically sustain it's military in a long term conflict.

Russian GDP even before any sanctions was around 1/14th of the United States. Germany, Britain, and France all easily exceed Russia as well.

Military spending as a percentage of GDP - say even 10%, is far less strain on the US or Europe than on Russia. 

It's the same as Germany in 1939 - they need quick victories or attrition takes over.

The only other option gets everyone killed.

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other problem for Russia is the ability to economically sustain it's military in a long term conflict.
> 
> Russian GDP even before any sanctions was around 1/14th of the United States. Germany, Britain, and France all easily exceed Russia as well.
> 
> ...


their GDP is in size of Nrdrlands and military spending were around 15% during at least last 5 years

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other problem for Russia is the ability to economically sustain it's military in a long term conflict.
> 
> Russian GDP even before any sanctions was around 1/14th of the United States. Germany, Britain, and France all easily exceed Russia as well.
> 
> ...


Nederlands i would like to type 😄


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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> By the way, the Voyenno Vozdushnye Sily (VVS) merged with the Voyska Vozdushno Kosmicheskoy Oborony (VVKO) back in 2015 to form the Vozdushno Kosmicheskiye Sily (VKS).


isn't sounds funny right now...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

A Sky News team comes under fire by Russian troops.
Even though they were clearly marked and tried to identify themselves in several languages, the Russians continued to attack.

Fortunately, no one was killed and a nearby shop owner gave them refuge.

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## J_P_C (Mar 7, 2022)

Couple weeks ago ive read analysis indicating that in fact VKS is in terrible shape - with most of their fleet reaching age limit and withserious problems with maintaing what they have rin the inventory. Just consider fact that most russian pilots (especially fast jet) is flying far less than 40 hours a year - at least according to the author of analysis. Situation over Ukraine seems to confirm this information.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Couple weeks ago ive read analysis indicating that in fact VKS is in terrible shape - with most of their fleet reaching age limit and withserious problems with maintaing what they have rin the inventory. Just consider fact that most russian pilots (especially fast jet) is flying far less than 40 hours a year - at least according to the author of analysis. Situation over Ukraine seems to confirm this information.


Recently, I was reading about Russia's problems with keeping their MiG-29 fleet operational, with many being grounded due to maintenance issues.

Couple that with their pilots having 10% of the flight time and practice of their NATO counterparts and it's a disaster.


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## swampyankee (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What has baffled me for years, is how the Russian people, finally free of the Communist yoke, allowed Putin to go from President, to special advisor to the President then to long-term leader of the state, etc.
> 
> Sort of reminds me of a certain Corporal who managed to weasel his way into absolute power...


He's telling them what they want to hear and stifling significant dissent, by censorship, imprisonment, ridicule, and murder. It's worked in many countries with leaders from all parts of the political spectrum. Anti-democratic populism is not that uncommon, nor is it unique to former dictatorships

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other problem for Russia is the ability to economically sustain it's military in a long term conflict.
> 
> Russian GDP even before any sanctions was around 1/14th of the United States. Germany, Britain, and France all easily exceed Russia as well.
> 
> ...


Which is why Putin needs to be shown a face saving exit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> He's telling them what they want to hear and stifling significant dissent, by censorship, imprisonment, ridicule, and murder. It's worked in many countries with leaders from all parts of the political spectrum. Anti-democratic populism is not that uncommon, nor is it unique to former dictatorships



Like you said, its not uncommon in any spectrum. The truth can be made up. Just look at the last 6 years here in the US (no its not limited to just the last 6 years, its just a really good example if people want to be honest). It’s just politics 101. And it’s not limited to just one side (this is not me pointing at any side). Some just take it a bit further like Putin.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which is why Putin needs to be shown a face saving exit.



What face saving exit does he have, other than victory?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What face saving exit does he have, other than victory?


Nuclear holocaust.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nuclear holocaust.



That’s not face saving, because his country has become a nuclear waste land too and he has no country left to rule. His only face saving event is total victory and a powerful USSR.


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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

14 years of contact with Polish people pays off when listening to this guy (... colorful language):

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## J_P_C (Mar 8, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> 14 years of contact with Polish people pays off when listening to this guy (... colorful language):



 im so sorry - lets blame stress level for this

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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> im so sorry - lets blame stress level for this



There is really no need to apologize. Polish have a free pass by me.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That’s not face saving, because his country has become a nuclear waste land too and he has no country left to rule. His only face saving event is total victory and a powerful USSR.


He doesn’t care. Unlike going out with a nuclear bang, a powerful USSR is a fantasy not a goal.

So, what other option does Putin have? Just keep hitting Ukraine for months? I am surprised the Russians havent attacked western Ukraine along the border with Poland in order to cut off the flood of reinforcements.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

I think Vlad is shooting for Imperial Russia more than the Soviet version. He seems to prefer being Tsar. Check out his imperial guards and gold leaf all over the place.

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## J_P_C (Mar 8, 2022)

he said that artillery has been called and targeted by lady from ukrainian army - highest respect ver professionally done job. Funny story from today's news - Russian have lost one of their drones shoot down by other ukrainian lady with jar of pickles... wellll if it is true is even hard to comment this...

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> he said that artillery has been called and targeted by lady from ukrainian army - highest respect ver professionally done job. Funny story from today's news - Russian have lost one of their drones shoot down by other ukrainian lady with jar of pickles... wellll if it is true is even hard to comment this...











Ukrainian woman who 'downed drone with jar of tomatoes' says she has no regrets


As missiles and shells hammer down on Ukraine, one defiant citizen reportedly fought back with a jar of canned tomatoes after spotting a suspicious drone hovering near her apartment




www.mirror.co.uk

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## Denniss (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What face saving exit does he have, other than victory?


The end of a gun barrel?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> He doesn’t care. Unlike going out with a nuclear bang, a powerful USSR is a fantasy not a goal.
> 
> So, what other option does Putin have? Just keep hitting Ukraine for months? I am surprised the Russians havent attacked western Ukraine along the border with Poland in order to cut off the flood of reinforcements.



Wrong. He does care. What good does any of this do when there is no one left to give him a parade down Red Square. Nuclear war is not his goal. Its his deterrent to get what he wants. If it was his goal you would be dust in the wind already.

You severely underestimate him, just because someone does not value human life does not mean he wants to die or the world to end. The entire world being a nuclear wasteland does not fit his end game. It saves no face, and he has ZERO benefit from it. What power does he have then (power is what he really wants)? What control does he have then? What legacy does he then have? The guy who commited mass suicide, and no one is left to talk about it? It is simply his last ditch effort when he cannot save face.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think Vlad is shooting for Imperial Russia more than the Soviet version. He seems to prefer being Tsar. Check out his imperial guards and gold leaf all over the place.



I would tend to agree actually.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The end of a gun barrel?



That I agree 100%.

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## Dimlee (Mar 8, 2022)

Sanctions dashboard.








The Castellum.AI dashboard provides consolidated Russia sanctions data. The page is updated daily. — Castellum.AI


The Castellum.AI sanctions tracker dashboard provides consolidated Russia sanctions data. The page is updated daily. We break down the targeted sanctions adopted by Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, UK, and US. Our sanctions tracker additionally covers export controls and sectoral sanctions adopted agai




www.castellum.ai

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## special ed (Mar 8, 2022)

Regarding flying hours, MiG-25 pilot Victor Belenko (?) who flew his plane to Japan, told in his book of working on the collective farm, tractor driving more hours than flying.

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## Marcel (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So, what other option does Putin have? Just keep hitting Ukraine for months?


He can always do what we did in Afghanistan last year. Fight there a couple of years and then declare it "not our problem" and leave.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Just watched a video from BBC Newsnight. “Putin’s power: Can anyone stop the Russian President?”
A Russian former minister and a former British ambassador to Russia were interviewed. Their conclusion was the only way to stop Putin was by military defeat on the battlefield. 
What I liked most was the urging of Lend-Lease for Ukraine.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Just watched a video from BBC Newsnight. “Putin’s power: Can anyone stop the Russian President?”
> A Russian former minister and a former British ambassador to Russia were interviewed. Their conclusion was the only way to stop Putin was by military defeat on the battlefield.
> What I liked most was the urging of Lend-Lease for Ukraine.



I would say he is correct. Unfortunately, it seems that the defeat has to come from Ukraine.

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## J_P_C (Mar 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Is Vitaly Gerasimov related to Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? They're both from Kazan, Tatar, and there are some facial similarities.
> 
> Vitaly Gerasimov:
> View attachment 660510
> ...


no he was probably his nephew...


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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

One interesting point they brought up is that it could be a land battle rather than one in the air. 
As there seems to be little in VKS activity over Ukraine, this seems to have a kernel of truth. Might that reduce the chance of escalation since no one will launching strikes behind Russian or NATO lines to take out airbases?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> One interesting point they brought up is that it could be a land battle rather than one in the air.
> As there seems to be little in VKS activity over Ukraine, this seems to have a kernel of truth. Might that reduce the chance of escalation since no one will launching strikes behind Russian or NATO lines to take out airbases?



It still has to be a Ukrainian victory.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I would say he is correct. Unfortunately, it seems that the defeat has to come from Ukraine.



I believe that can possibly happen with our non-fighting support.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Hope so.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hope so.



The Ukrainian army will have to avoid encirclement and safeguard the western border with Poland. That will provide a solid land link through which to funnel Lend-Lease -- directly into an area with good terrain for asymmetrical war.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I believe that can possibly happen with our non-fighting support.



Agreed

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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

It seems there's no less appetite for disinformation over the war in Ukraine, with some claiming the whole thing is a hoax (where have I heard that before?):









Ukraine invasion: False claims the war is a hoax go viral


False claims have been spreading that the Ukraine war is a hoax and that actors have been involved in staging events.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It seems there's no less appetite for disinformation over the war in Ukraine, with some claiming the whole thing is a hoax (where have I heard that before?):
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Carl Sagan said:


> It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out.



I am so freakin' tired of these conspiracy numpties.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It seems there's no less appetite for disinformation over the war in Ukraine, with some claiming the whole thing is a hoax *(where have I heard that before?):🫖*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I know right? 

Not going down that rabbit hole though…


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 8, 2022)

I think it's those godless Swiss!

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## VintageIron (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The 4 Indictments lodged in the Nuremburg trials: (1) crimes against peace (i.e., the planning, initiating, and waging of wars of aggression in violation of international treaties and agreements), (2) crimes against humanity (i.e., exterminations, deportations, and genocide), (3) war crimes (i.e., violations of the laws of war), and (4) "a common plan or conspiracy to commit" the criminal acts listed in the first three counts.
> 
> So far, 1 and 4 have been met. Hope the trial starts soon.


Interesting reading your post, the movie Judgment at Nuremburg was on the other night, a fine film, the line from Burt Lancaster, echoed with me, while the context is different, the words still apply, "...Are we going to do this again?"

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## msxyz (Mar 8, 2022)

As I predicted, China steps in the "great pacifier" role. The big looser in the long run of this war will be the EU but, as Vicky Nuland aptly said, "F*** the EU!" 

That's the result of not having a strong identity and letting the show being run by weak politicians.


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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

msxyz said:


> As I predicted, China steps in the "great pacifier" role. The big looser in the long run of this war will be the EU but, as Vicky Nuland aptly said, "F*** the EU!"
> 
> That's the result of not having a strong identity and letting the show being run by weak politicians.



Politics - let's keep that away?


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## msxyz (Mar 8, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Politics - let's keep that away?


Yep. The second sentence is slippery. Apologies

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Biden bans U.S. imports of Russian oil and natural gas, and Britain vows to phase Russian oil out.


The British also said they would phase out imports of Russian oil by the end of the year to increase the economic isolation of Russia’s president, Vladimir. V. Putin.




www.nytimes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

Train full of military tanks spotted rolling through Toronto gives highway drivers a shock



We’ve operated MBTs in the Baltics before. Perhaps they’re on the way to Latvia.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Canadian Leo II tanks on the move.
> 
> 
> 
> We’ve operated MBTs in the Baltics before. Perhaps they’re on the way to Latvia.




Or they are moving to a training exercise in Canada?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or there moving to a training exercise in Canada.


Could be, as the train is westbound and the ports are eastward at Halifax and Montreal. The Armoured School is also to the east at CFB Gagetown but there are other training sites out west. Some good Canadian Leo 2 training footage here.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 8, 2022)

Marcel said:


> He can always do what we did in Afghanistan last year. Fight there a couple of years and then declare it "not our problem" and leave.


He could emulate Senator George Aiken's recommendation on Vietnam: "Declare victory and withdraw!"
Upon taking Kiyv, Putin could install his puppet government, tell them they're on their own, declare victory and skedadle. Zelehnsky would relocate to Lviv and fight on.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Notice Zelehnsky is fighting WITH his people while Putin is hiding from his people?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

It's been a long time since a head of state actually led their nation from the battlefield.

I have a great deal of respect for Zelensky.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's been a long time since a head of state actually led their nation from the battlefield.
> 
> I have a great deal of respect for Zelensky.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Biden bans U.S. imports of Russian oil and natural gas, and Britain vows to phase Russian oil out.
> 
> 
> The British also said they would phase out imports of Russian oil by the end of the year to increase the economic isolation of Russia’s president, Vladimir. V. Putin.
> ...


Can't read it without a subscription but I think I get the gist. 600kbpd if crude will be made up for elsewhere such as internal production, Saudi, and Venezuela. Shame that the 840000 bpd Keystone pipeline from your northern neighbours was cancelled on Biden's first day in office.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Can't read it without a subscription but I think I get the gist. 600kbpd if crude will be made up for elsewhere such as internal production, Saudi, and Venezuela. Shame that the 840000 bpd Keystone pipeline from your northern neighbours was cancelled on Biden's first day in office.



You mean the pipeline that the majority of oil was not going to the US anyhow, and was not the type used for gasoline?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Yup. Stuff bound for China.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

Ok....the big guns are out. McDonalds is temporarily closing all its restaurants in Russia. 

That's it. That's the end of the world as we know it. Putin will be on his knees.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok....the big guns are out. McDonalds is temporarily closing all its restaurants in Russia.
> 
> That's it. That's the end of the world as we know it. Putin will be on his knees.



I wish they would close all their stores here in the US. Can they do that? Yuck!

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

No I mean the heavy crude that many of the Gulf Coast refineries were revamped to take back in the 90s. We're refining the stuff up here into diesel and so can you. Venezuela's crude is no better.


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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

Sand-bagged Shermans step aside. Here is the new queen of impromptu armor:
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxMQwaSRYvLJEVK6Lft111qzQKnDXB5r8V

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## pgeno71 (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or they are moving to a training exercise in Canada?


Training exercises or NATO mobilization - ALL LIES!!! I have it on good information (the internets) that Trudeau is mobilizing on our northern border. He is going to invade through the Minnesota and Wisconsin corridor first because they are good at hockey and have some French-named cities and town. Makes perfect sense to me, but I think he is grossly overstepping al a Putin. Gird your loins men (and women) of the Great Lakes region! The Canadians are coming and there not bringing Molson, at least not for us.

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## soulezoo (Mar 8, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Training exercises or NATO mobilization - ALL LIES!!! I have it on good information (the internets) that Trudeau is mobilizing on our northern border. He is going to invade through the Minnesota and Wisconsin corridor first because they are good at hockey and have some French-named cities and town. Makes perfect sense to me, but I think he is grossly overstepping al a Putin. Gird your loins men (and women) of the Great Lakes region! The Canadians are coming and there not bringing Molson, at least not for us.


Well thank goodness they're not bringing Molson. Labatt's will do just fine though...

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 8, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Training exercises or NATO mobilization - ALL LIES!!! I have it on good information (the internets) that Trudeau is mobilizing on our northern border. He is going to invade through the Minnesota and Wisconsin corridor first because they are good at hockey and have some French-named cities and town. Makes perfect sense to me, but I think he is grossly overstepping al a Putin. Gird your loins men (and women) of the Great Lakes region! The Canadians are coming and there not bringing Molson, at least not for us.


Bastards! I knew they were lying when they said they were shelving their invasion plans!

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## Dimlee (Mar 8, 2022)

_"Poland said on Tuesday that it was ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 fighter jets to the US Air Force's Rammstein Air Base in Germany and place them at the disposal of Washington to provide them to Ukraine..."_









Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine


Russia has proposed a new ceasefire starting 10 a.m. Moscow time Tuesday (or 2 a.m. ET) in five Ukrainian cities. Ukraine has yet to formally agree to the proposal. Follow here for live news updates from on the ground in Ukraine.




edition.cnn.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's been a long time since a head of state actually led their nation from the battlefield.
> 
> I have a great deal of respect for Zelensky.


He did surprise many in Ukraine, both his supporters and opponents. Probably, even his loyal fans did not expect him to be so defiant in the critical situation. 
Just to note that he started his term as a "peacemaker" with a very weak position and ignorance about military matters. His most famous words about the war in 2019 were "everyone should stop shooting", "we need to negotiate and to settle somewhere in the middle", "I can crawl on my knees to Moscow", etc. Army and veterans treated him with suspicion and until 2021 there were fears that Zelensky can give in to Kremlin demands.
I did not believe earlier that a 44 years man can change so fast.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Nothing is more dangerous than a man determined to defend his home.

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## J_P_C (Mar 8, 2022)

Ukrainian government announced that they are ready to pay 1mln USD to each defecting Russian pilot and for non damaged airplane and also help them to receive citizenship of proffered western country - it will be interesting test of VKS morale.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)

Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant... 

Or as one of the replies in the twitter thread commented,

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)

Joshua : A strange game. *The only winning move is not to play*. How about a nice game of chess?

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 8, 2022)

When this is over, I just want to buy every Ukrainian solder a beer.

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## special ed (Mar 8, 2022)

And the citizen fighters, male and female.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 8, 2022)

In honor (or honouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuur for our UK friends) of post 1,957 my son just sent me this:

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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

Made in Germany - Panzerfaust 3 in Ukraine:

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"Poland said on Tuesday that it was ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 fighter jets to the US Air Force's Rammstein Air Base in Germany and place them at the disposal of Washington to provide them to Ukraine..."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Looking at the news now, it seems the US was not informed of Poland’s plan? Janes says Poland has less than thirty MiG-29s. Will they make much of a difference? Where would they fly from? Makeshift highway Runways?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Made in Germany - Panzerfaust 3 in Ukraine:



This reminded me of the Germans training civilians on the Panzerfaust in 1945.













Panzerfaust, A Valuable Anti-Tank Weapon


A look at the German World War II anti-tank weapons Panzerfaust, Panzerschreck, and Faustpatrone.




worldwartwo.filminspector.com

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 8, 2022)

The article I read about the Polish Migs stated the US had agreed to backfill them with F-16s so I'd think they'd had to know.

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## swampyankee (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What face saving exit does he have, other than victory?


A promise Ukraine doesn't join NATO. The trouble with that is that he already violated a Russian promise to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity, so he can't be trusted to honor anything he signs.

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## Glider (Mar 8, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> A promise Ukraine doesn't join NATO. The trouble with that is that he already violated a Russian promise to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity, so he can't be trusted to honor anything he signs.


I think the best that Putin can go for is a recognition that the area in the Crimea and two areas held at the start remain in Russian control. Realistically the Ukrainian Army don't have the power to attack Russian forces in a pitched battle where the Russian army is dug in.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> A promise Ukraine doesn't join NATO. The trouble with that is that he already violated a Russian promise to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity, so he can't be trusted to honor anything he signs.



Agreed, but Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO after this.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 8, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Ukrainian government announced that they are ready to pay 1mln USD to each defecting Russian pilot and for non damaged airplane and also help them to receive citizenship of proffered western country - it will be interesting test of VKS morale.


Umm...has the CIA showed up with wads of cash and stinger missiles. Western Ukraine is very mountainous as well. Are we staging Afghanistan Part II: The European Theater.


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## CATCH 22 (Mar 8, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Training exercises or NATO mobilization - ALL LIES!!! I have it on good information (the internets) that Trudeau is mobilizing on our northern border. He is going to invade through the Minnesota and Wisconsin corridor first because they are good at hockey and have some French-named cities and town. Makes perfect sense to me, but I think he is grossly overstepping al a Putin. Gird your loins men (and women) of the Great Lakes region! The Canadians are coming and there not bringing Molson, at least not for us.


Do you have any further information if we (Canadians) will bring _Poutine_ to the States as well? Because in France some restaurants have been threatened for having _Poutine_ on their menus.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Umm...has the CIA showed up with wads of cash and stinger missiles. Western Ukraine is very mountainous as well. Are we staging Afghanistan Part II: The European Theater.



Afghanistan was like 90% high grounds (hills, mountains). Carpatian mountains account for how much, 5%+- of Ukraine? If Putin holds the plains, Carpatians don't matter.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looking at the news now, it seems the US was not informed of Poland’s plan? Janes says Poland has less than thirty MiG-29s. Will they make much of a difference? Where would they fly from? Makeshift highway Runways?


Virtually every nation in Europe has contingency plans for using road/highways as interim aistrips and dispersal.
Germany was the master of it in WWII and the lesson was not lost in later years.

When I was in Bulgaria back in 2012, the Bulgarian Air Force was conducting exercises along these lines near Plovdiv. Was cool to see, too.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)

Heh. St. Javelin...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Virtually every nation in Europe has contingency plans for using road/highways as interim aistrips and dispersal.
> Germany was the master of it in WWII and the lesson was not lost in later years.
> 
> When I was in Bulgaria back in 2012, the Bulgarian Air Force was conducting exercises along these lines near Plovdiv. Was cool to see, too.



It was a cold war strategy in Germany, and still is today.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 8, 2022)

CATCH 22 said:


> Do you have any further information if we (Canadians) will bring _Poutine_ to the States as well? Because in France some restaurants have been threatened for having _Poutine_ on their menus.


Poutine is awesome, but to prevent wackos from boycotting French restaurants they may have to rename them Kyiv Potatoes or Ukraine Fries. 

The funniest think about the Wikipedia entry:

_This article is about the dish of french fries, cheese curds and gravy. For the Acadian dish of boiled potato dumplings, see _Poutine râpée_. For the president of Russia, see _Vladimir Putin_._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Poutine is awesome, but to prevent wackos from boycotting French restaurants they may have to rename them Kyiv Potatoes or Ukraine Fries.
> 
> The funniest think about the Wikipedia entry:
> 
> _This article is about the dish of french fries, cheese curds and gravy. For the Acadian dish of boiled potato dumplings, see _Poutine râpée_. For the president of Russia, see _Vladimir Putin_._



Freedom Fries damnit! Get it right!

Man, we do some ridiculous things sometimes…

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It was a cold war strategy in Germany, and still is today.


If I remember right, Dominik posted pics of Polish aircraft doing the same in Poland, in his photo thread.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> In honor (or honouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuur for our UK friends) of post 1,957 my son just sent me this:
> 
> View attachment 660620



Interesting...that ain't no tank. It's an SA-15 TELAR. That's a spendy piece of kit to "lose".

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed, but Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO after this.


Wouldn't that put a feather in Putin's cap? One of his demands before invading, and one that he continues to make, is that Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. The west has so far been very careful to not rule out Ukraine joining so why would agree now?

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Wouldn't that put a feather in Putin's cap? One of his demands before invading, and one that he continues to make, is that Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. The west has so far been very careful to not rule out Ukraine joining so why would agree now?



I don’t think it will happen. NATO does not want to provoke a war either. I think Ukraine will end up on its own, and will become the new front line of the new Cold War. I hate to say it, and I feel bad for Ukraine, but I see it playing out this way. Like I said in an earlier post, Ukraine is being thrown under the bus in a way.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Just last week, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership under a "fast track" appeal.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

You may be right on the outcome Chris. I just can't see the west ever telling Putin that they'll never be allowed to join.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Wouldn't that put a feather in Putin's cap? One of his demands before invading, and one that he continues to make, is that Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO. The west has so far been very careful to not rule out Ukraine joining so why would agree now?


I disagree. Ukraine (and Finland, and the other sovereign states that border the former Soviet Union) were always out of NATO as part of a sort of "gentlemen's agreement". They were out precisely to prevent the CCCP from getting nervous. They understood it. NATO understood it. The Russians understood it. Putin changed the story and now it's NATO and the XIII Waffen Ukranian Armee are unleashing Satan (or something). Ukraine was never going to be allowed into NATO. Perhaps it's more worry by Putin over Ukraine joining the EU. My guess is that any NATO discussion of Ukrainian entry is part of the negotiating process. This we can "give up" for Putin's face saving but it will never happen unless there are a bunch of stuff I can't forsee happening

I had stopped following the news pretty much two elections ago. It wasn't "The News" so much as people screaming at each other. I understand that possibly there was discussion about certain states joining NATO way before the troops started massing. I'm sure you'll agree this is not my area of expertise.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

Latvia and Estonia directly border Russia and so does the north tip of Norway, all NATO countries so I don't know where your "gentlemen's agreement" comes in. It would be a mistake for the west to say NOW to the bare-chested blubberhead that Ukraine will never join. He gets what he wants that way and can tell all of his people and his cronies that the invasion, er, sorry, "special military operation", was worth it.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 8, 2022)

Just remember this...

_NATO membership is potentially open to all of Europe's emerging democracies that share the alliance's values and are ready to meet the obligations of membership.

There is no checklist for membership.

We have made clear that, at a minimum, candidates for membership must meet the following five requirements:

--New members must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.

--New members must be making progress toward a market economy.

--Their military forces must be under firm civilian control.

--They must be good neighbors and respect sovereignty outside their borders.

--They must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces.

Again, while these criteria are essential, they do not constitute a checklist leading automatically to NATO membership.

New members must be invited by a consensus of current members.

Decisions to invite new members must take into account the required ratification process in the member states. In the case of the United States, decisions are made in consultation with Congress.

The key determinant for any invitation to new members is whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance and further the basic objective of NATO enlargement, which is to increase security and stability across Europe._

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ukraine (and Finland, and the other sovereign states that border the former Soviet Union) were always out of NATO as part of a sort of "gentlemen's agreement". They were out precisely to prevent the CCCP from getting nervous.


Finland wasn't interested in joining NATO until recently.
During the days of the Soviet Union, European nations with a border against Warsaw Pact nations were part of NATO and after the Soviet Union collapsed, those former Warsaw pact nations joined NATO.

The Ukraine had been working with NATO since it goined independence from Communist rule in the 90's.

Putin's crying about NATO being a threat is just an excuse.

Here is a history of Ukraine's relationship with NATO:








Relations with Ukraine


A strong, independent Ukraine is vital for the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea...




www.nato.int

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

I have been out of touch. I didn't know Latvia and Estonia were part of NATO. I was going from anecdotal sources for my "agreement".


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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I have been out of touch. I didn't know Latvia and Estonia were part of NATO. I was going from anecdotal sources for my "agreement".


During the days of the Soviet Union, Turkey had two borders with the Soviet Union: Bulgaria and the Georgian region and Turkey has been a NATO member since the early 50's. 
Every time a Soviet ship transited the Bosphorus, it was completely surrounded by NATO territory.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> You may be right on the outcome Chris. I just can't see the west ever telling Putin that they'll never be allowed to join.


I agree on that, but what they say and what they do are two different things.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Latvia and Estonia directly border Russia and so does the north tip of Norway, all NATO countries so I don't know where your "gentlemen's agreement" comes in. It would be a mistake for the west to say NOW to the bare-chested blubberhead that Ukraine will never join. He gets what he wants that way and can tell all of his people and his cronies that the invasion, er, sorry, "special military operation", was worth it.



Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia also have borders with Russia...and they're all NATO members. I think the issue is more about Putin not wanting to further expand his NATO frontage...plus he wants buffer states like Belarus and, he hopes, Ukraine that would become battlegrounds in any engagement with NATO, hence saving Mother Russia from the fighting. It's a very odd, twisted logic but it's all about power and protecting Russia. 

Sadly, Belarus in particular hasn't cottoned onto the idea that Putin only wants them as a battleground so he can protect Russia proper. One of our forum mates has a signature block that says "Just because you please your enemy does not make him your friend." That's SOOOOO true when it comes to Putin. Even if he treats you as a friend, you must keep in mind he is the most self-serving of allies.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia also have borders with Russia...and they're all NATO members. I think the issue is more about Putin not wanting to further expand his NATO frontage...plus he wants buffer states like Belarus and, he hopes, Ukraine that would become battlegrounds in any engagement with NATO, hence saving Mother Russia from the fighting. It's a very odd, twisted logic but it's all about power and protecting Russia.



These 3 countries border with Ukraine, not with Russia.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> _*The key determinant for any invitation to new members is whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance and further the basic objective of NATO enlargement, which is to increase security and stability across Europe.*_



And unfortunately, whether we like it or not, Ukraine joining NATO would likely do the opposite.

Me personally? I would welcome them with open arms. I would personally love a soldier of Ukrainian caliber sharing a fox hole with me. But in the grand scheme of things its probably not the best idea.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> These 3 countries border with Ukraine, not with Russia.



Yeah...you're right. Getting ahead of myself. DOH!!!!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 8, 2022)

Seems like there's a kerfuffle between Washington and Warsaw over the gifting of Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine. Poland has offered them to the US but the US doesn't want to own the problem and is saying it's for Poland to decide what to do with the jets. The fear is that having combat aircraft flying from a NATO nation into Ukraine will be seen as provocative.

Seems to me we should learn some lessons from the Neutrality Act prior to US entry into WW2 and drag the aircraft over the border before flying them to Ukrainian military airfields. 












It seems to me there should be some stretch of suitably long and straight tarmac that would be good enough for the job...maybe? Then again, as demonstrated in my previous post, geography isn't my strong suit!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> During the days of the Soviet Union, Turkey had two borders with the Soviet Union: Bulgaria and the Georgian region and Turkey has been a NATO member since the early 50's.
> Every time a Soviet ship transited the Bosphorus, it was completely surrounded by NATO territory.


I did know that Turkey was a member. I remember a lot of noise about it. I chalked that up to "noise". Latvia and Estonia, caught me by surprise. I thought they would always be the "border hostage" states. Part of a demilitarized zone between the Godless communists and capitalist tools of Wall Street.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 8, 2022)

I think with the natural gas deposites the Ukraine posses, I could see them being admited to the EU and then later into NATO especially with Adolph Putin threatening to cut off Germany's supply.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

China now seems to have its petroleum issues solved for a while. Cheap.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Afghanistan was like 90% high grounds (hills, mountains). Carpatian mountains account for how much, 5%+- of Ukraine? If Putin holds the plains, Carpatians don't matter.



The Pripet marshes in the north of Ukraine are also ideal insurgent cover, I'd think.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just last week, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership under a "fast track" appeal.



Does the EU have a mutual-defense clause along the lines of the NATO pact?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Latvia and Estonia directly border Russia and so does the north tip of Norway, all NATO countries so I don't know where your "gentlemen's agreement" comes in. It would be a mistake for the west to say NOW to the bare-chested blubberhead that Ukraine will never join. He gets what he wants that way and can tell all of his people and his cronies that the invasion, er, sorry, "special military operation", was worth it.



No nation or group of nations should change its foreign policy to appease a bully. I'd thought this lesson got learned 80 years ago ....

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## special ed (Mar 8, 2022)

I saw an interesting evaluation by a retired official or officer who pointed out in 1863 Russia took Manchuria and surrounding areas from China. Now that Putin has become indebted to XII (I call him eleven) China may want that territory back. With the Russian military weakened and now short of equipment, with Russia's low GDP rebuilding the military may take a long time.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

I agree with you, T-cus. Were only it were so. I guess it didn't stay learned.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

special ed said:


> I saw an interesting evaluation by a retired official or officer who pointed out in 1863 Russia took Manchuria and surrounding areas from China. Now that Putin has become indebted to XII (I call him eleven) China may want that territory back. With the Russian military weakened and now short of equipment, with Russia's low GDP rebuilding the military may take a long time.


Tsar to vassal. I'm liking it.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No nation or group of nations should change its foreign policy to appease a bully. I'd thought this lesson got learned 80 years ago ....


What Ukraine needs is another nation, clearly one not in NATO to actively join the fight in Ukraine. Moldova is an obvious contender since they’ll be next if Ukraine falls. It’s a damn shame Belarus has chosen the wrong side as they could have stood with Ukraine - together Russia wouldn’t, apparently, stand a chance.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

Regarding China picking up the slack for Russian sales of petroleum products:

1) The Russians would have to finish their pipeline to China first, no?

2) Finding a shipping line that wouldn't be worried about sanctions, and be willing to pay the higher insurance rates such business would incur, might be tough sledding.

I suspect the Chinese will continue their Middle East purchasing and let the Russians sort out the transshipment details.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Regarding China picking up the slack for Russian sales of petroleum products:
> 
> 1) The Russians would have to finish their pipeline to China first, no?
> 
> 2) Finding a shipping line that wouldn't be worried about sanctions, and be willing to pay the higher insurance rates such business would incur, might be tough sledding.


Excellent!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What Ukraine needs is another nation, clearly one not in NATO to actively join the fight in Ukraine. Moldova is an obvious contender since they’ll be next if Ukraine falls. It’s a damn shame Belarus has chosen the wrong side as they could have stood with Ukraine - together Russia wouldn’t, apparently, stand a chance.


Moldova is a former territory of Romania, but they are and want to remain, neutral.

As I mentioned the other day, Moldova (who still has a large ethnic Romanian population) was in talks with Romania about reunification even last year.
So if Putin tries to take Moldova under the auspices if it being "ethnic Russian" or whatever, he'll have to answer to Romania, who has a vested interest in Moldova and has stated clearly that they will defend them.

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## The Basket (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does the EU have a mutual-defense clause along the lines of the NATO pact?


The EU have no army and defence is on a state by state basis.

The Polish Fulcrums news has more twists than Chubby Checker so who knows about that.

Russian Oil seems to be off the western menu so another nail in the economic coffin. 

If we agree that Ukraine can't be a member of NATO or EU then if the Russian retreats then I'm ok with it.

Don't mean you can't pretend that anyhoo.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

Regarding American imports of Russian oil, it's about 600k bbl in the last year (12,600 bbl/month, so about 607k bbl per annum), not *per day*, as posted above. Source: U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports

It's my understanding that this oil is imported for refinement and re-export, rather than American use. I'm not sure how that affects Russian finances, but it would seem to hurt countries downstream if my understanding about re-export is correct.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Moldova want(s) to remain, neutral. If Putin tries to take Moldova he'll have to answer to Romania….


Ukraine wanted to remain neutral as well.

Romania, as a member of NATO cannot provoke a war with Russia as a means to protect Moldova.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 8, 2022)

special ed said:


> I saw an interesting evaluation by a retired official or officer who pointed out in 1863 Russia took Manchuria and surrounding areas from China. Now that Putin has become indebted to XII (I call him eleven) China may want that territory back. With the Russian military weakened and now short of equipment, with Russia's low GDP rebuilding the military may take a long time.


Ah, you've played Diplomacy, too.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does the EU have a mutual-defense clause along the lines of the NATO pact?



No, it is literally just an economic zone.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Regarding American imports of Russian oil, it's about 600k bbl in the last year (12,600 bbl/month, so about 607k bbl per annum), not *per day*, as posted above. Source: U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports
> 
> It's my understanding that this oil is imported for refinement and re-export, rather than American use. I'm not sure how that affects Russian finances, but it would seem to hurt countries downstream if my understanding about re-export is correct.


You sure? April 2020 (mid Covid) numbers had imports from Russia at 408k barrels *per day. *


US Oil Imports by Country 2022



Edited. Left off the "k"


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> You sure? April 2020 (mid Covid) numbers had imports from Russia at 408 barrels *per day. *
> 
> 
> US Oil Imports by Country 2022



In thousands…

408,000 bpd

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> You sure? April 2020 (mid Covid) numbers had imports from Russia at 408 barrels *per day. *
> 
> 
> US Oil Imports by Country 2022



My quoted numbers run from Nov 20 - Dec 21, based on US EIA numbers.

April 2020 is probably going to be a low-point due to Covid, and so the extrapolated annual numbers should be expected to be low.

Edited to correct my misreading.


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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

The April 2020 number quotes the 2019 average barrels per day and it is indeed 408000. 12600 per month sounds wrong for a country that imports 7million bpd.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The April 2020 number quotes the 2019 average barrels per day and it is indeed 408000. 12600 per month sounds wrong for a country that imports 7million bpd.



Edited as above.

I don't understand why the same agency would report such wildly varying figures. 408,000 bbls/day equals about 149 million barrels per year, or about 12+ million bbls/mo.

ETA: The only reason I can think for the discrepancy would be the difference between domestic American use and refining for reshipment.


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## Vincenzo (Mar 8, 2022)

actually most of states bordered the Soviet Union, in Europe, were member of Warsaw pact, the exception were the Finland, neutral, and with some limitation, via peace treaty, and Norway that was a winner of WW2 and joined to NATO

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## Crimea_River (Mar 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Edited as above.
> 
> I don't understand why the same agency would report such wildly varying figures. 408,000 bbls/day equals about 149 million barrels per year, or about 12+ million bbls/mo.
> 
> ETA: The only reason I can think for the discrepancy would be the difference between domestic American use and refining for reshipment.


That's why I was questioning it and wonder if your quoted 12600 barrels per month should be in thousands.

Bottom line is that Russian imports to the US amounted to about 5% so banning imports is manageable. That's why Canada banned them last week. Imports are negligible. Unfortunately the EU is not in the same position.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

CrimeaRiver said:


> That's why I was questioning it and wonder if your quoted 12600 barrels per month should be in thousands.
> 
> Bottom line is that Russian imports to the US amounted to about 5% so banning imports is manageable. That's why Canada banned them last week. Imports are negligible. Unfortunately the EU is not in the same position.



It appears to be a misreading on my part, and I appreciate the correction.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

If Putin keeps this up he’ll end up with a nuclear armed Japan on its western border. China will do a face palm “thanks a lot Putin” at that point.









Japan moves to accept Ukrainian refugees and rebuild its military as countries continue to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine


Japan announced this past week that it would accept Ukrainian refugees displaced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will send bulletproof vests to Kiev.Historically, Japan has resisted taking in refugees and has maintained a pacifistic approach to foreign conflicts since the end of World War...




www.theblaze.com





There‘s no fuzzy middle in this new world order it seems.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 8, 2022)

It would appear that Putin has rung the division bell.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 8, 2022)

Something else from Russia:









Ukraine war: Why is Russia using the letter 'Z' and what does it mean?


From a gymnast on the podium to terminally ill children at a cancer hospice, Russians are sporting the letter seen on their country's forces. There are differing explanations on its origins and what it means - Sky News takes a closer look.




news.sky.com

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine wanted to remain neutral as well.
> 
> Romania, as a member of NATO cannot provoke a war with Russia as a means to protect Moldova.


Member nations of NATO remain sovereign and can act independently of NATO.

Recently, Turkey and Russia clashed in the Syrian war and didn't draw down a NATO response.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Something else from Russia:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They've also been marking Russian equipment with a "V", too.

I thought it was a form of an identifier to tell Russian and Ukrainian equipment apart - sort of like invasion stripes.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or they are moving to a training exercise in Canada?


You‘re right.









Canadian Army armoured vehicles training on Southwestern Ontario roads this weekend


If you see some armoured vehicles on the roads in Southwestern Ontario this weekend, don’t be alarmed: The Canadian Army is advising residents the vehicles will be on Highway 401 to and from Windsor and London this weekend for a training exercise.




windsorstar.com


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## JDCAVE (Mar 8, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I don’t know much about this sort of thing, but I wonder if perhaps an effective strategy/weapon would be saturating some of these cities with snipers at this rage of the “game”? The effect on morale might be considerable.
> 
> *Edit:* “rage” I meant “stage”…or did I mean “rage”?
> 
> Jim


Hmmm! Found this in the NYT:_ 

“Lieutenant Yarantsev, the Ukrainian officer, commands what he described as a mobile group of about 500 soldiers who are skirmishing with the Russians on the western approach to Kyiv. He said that their prospects were bolstered three days ago when they received Barrett 50-caliber sniper rifles in a shipment from the United States.

Sleek and black, with barrels so long they look almost like spears, the rifles were being unpacked and inspected. One sniper, who declined to offer his name, said he had fired one in combat on the outskirts of Kyiv.”_

Jim

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Zestava M93 was already there in theater.

It's a gorgeous piece of equipment.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Zestava M93 was already there in theater.
> 
> It's a gorgeous piece of equipment.


Hope so. But then, I'm very fond of Zastava products - I own a very nice ZPAP M70

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## GrauGeist (Mar 8, 2022)

Several years ago, I was in the process of buying one when my state passed a law banning .50 caliber firearms with no grandfathering, so the sale was aborted.

So I must admire from afar

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## at6 (Mar 9, 2022)

It won't be too long before California limits deer hunting to the use of sling shots.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

at6 said:


> It won't be too long before California limits deer hunting to the use of sling shots.



Bit of a difference between a .50 cal and a slingshot...and, frankly, you don't need a .50 cal for hunting deer (unless you want to render the animal right when you shoot it).

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Bit of a difference between a .50 cal and a slingshot...and, frankly, you don't need a .50 cal for hunting deer (unless you want to render the animal right when you shoot it).


Hitting any game with a .50 cal. would leave nothing but a big stain and stuff that resembled hamburger.  

But we should perhaps get back onto the much more important issues that's going on with the folks in the Ukraine - my fault for the thread drift

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does the EU have a mutual-defense clause along the lines of the NATO pact?


There had been conversations about it for long time (as usually in the EU), I think from the time of the balcan wars, in order to create a kind of QRF to intervene in areas of interes for the EU but not for the USA.

But so far there is nothing like NATO, only some ad hoc missions like Barkhane in the Sahel or Atalanta to fight somali pirates.

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## BlackSheep (Mar 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Was it Goebbels who said you have to tell the BIG lie, over and over?


"Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth", Joseph Goebbels

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 9, 2022)

*Eric Melrose "Winkle" Brown*

On 24 February 2015 Brown delivered the University of Edinburgh Mountbatten Lecture, entitled "Britain's Defence in the Near Future".[71]​ Speaking at the Playfair Library, he warned: "They [the Russians] are playing a very dangerous game of chess. ... They are playing it to the hilt. It may develop into that. It is certainly showing the same signs as what caused the Cold War."[72]​

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

Guys there is still a politics rule in place. We are just amending it (more to follow). Political discussion that has nothing to do with the current topic (whatever it may be), is still not allowed.

Gun laws (its political no matter how you look at it) has zilch to do with the invasion of Ukraine. Besides it only opens other doors.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But we should perhaps get back onto the much more important issues that's going on with the folks in the Ukraine - my fault for the thread drift



Thank you


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

> The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected Poland’s proposal to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. air base in Germany amid the intensifying Russian war in Ukraine.
> 
> Pentagon press secretary John Kirby released a statement Tuesday evening calling the proposal untenable.
> 
> ...











Pentagon: Polish proposal to send MiG fighters to US air base not ‘tenable’


The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected Poland’s proposal to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. air base in Germany amid the intensifying Russian war in Ukraine.Pentagon press secretary John Kirby rel…




thehill.com





This is infuriating.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pentagon: Polish proposal to send MiG fighters to US air base not ‘tenable’
> 
> 
> The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected Poland’s proposal to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. air base in Germany amid the intensifying Russian war in Ukraine.Pentagon press secretary John Kirby rel…
> ...


The Poles were too precious too far here. If you want to help Ukraine then do it, the UAF pilots could have traveled overland to Poland where the freshly re-painted MiG-29s would be ready for them to fly to Ukraine. No media press releases or fanfare, just take off and fly to Ukraine. Just the same as with the thousands of MANPADS, MANPATS and small arms crossing the Polish border every hour. Instead Poland wanted to US to be seen to be involved as some sort of shell game stunt, and then made a big public show of it, without apparently first checking with the US.

This is all on Poland. And they know they’re next on Putin’s list after Ukraine and Moldova. Now‘s not the time for Warsaw to be silly. Even today it’s not too late, repaint those MiG-29s and leave them fuelled, armed and unattended with the “keys” in the ignition. If someone steals them, well that’s life. 

Why not also “donate” your ground-attack optimized Sukhoi Su-17s? The US will make sure you’re not left defenceless.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Poles were too precious too far here. If you want to help Ukraine then do it, the UAF pilots could have traveled overland to Poland where the freshly re-painted MiG-29s would be ready for them to fly to Ukraine. No media press releases or fanfare, just take off and fly to Ukraine. Just the same as with the thousands of MANPADS, MANPATS and small arms crossing the Polish border every hour. Instead Poland wanted to US to be seen to be involved as some sort of shell game stunt, and then made a big public show of it, without apparently first checking with the US. This is all on Poland.



It appears that way, but at the same time the Pentagon's rationale seems arch. I know that sending arms to one side of a war is legally _casus belli_ to the other, but Poland is just as much a member of NATO as Germany.

I don't know the technical issues (fuel fittings compatible? that sort of thing) but barring those I hope President Biden orders the Pentagon to reconsider. Setting foreign policy is not in the Pentagon's purview, after all.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pentagon: Polish proposal to send MiG fighters to US air base not ‘tenable’
> 
> 
> The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected Poland’s proposal to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. air base in Germany amid the intensifying Russian war in Ukraine.Pentagon press secretary John Kirby rel…
> ...



Just put the damn planes in a parking lot unescured. If Ukrainian tourists just happen to acquire them as souvenirs of their time visiting beautiful Poland then so be it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Just put the damn planes in a parking lot unescured. If Ukrainian tourists just happen to acquire them as souvenirs of their time visiting beautiful Poland then so be it.



You've got to admit, those pesky Ukrainians have a habit of stealing everything that isn't nailed down ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

... and this just came up in my feed:

_Poland said on Wednesday that it wants to work with NATO countries to send fighter jets to Ukraine one day after the U.S. rejected Poland’s proposal.

"Such a serious decision as supplying planes must be unanimous and unequivocally made by the whole North Atlantic alliance," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at a press conference, Reuters reported.

On Tuesday, Poland proposed transferring its MiG-29 jets to U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany so the fighters could be sent to Ukraine. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pleading with Western countries to supply the jets to help in his nation fight against Russia. 

The Polish proposal, which was not discussed with the U.S. before becoming public, was rejected by Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby later Tuesday._









Poland says it’s ready to send fighter jets to Ukraine in coordination with NATO


Poland said on Wednesday that it wants to work with NATO countries to send fighter jets to Ukraine one day after the U.S. rejected Poland’s proposal.”Such a serious decision as supplying plan…




thehill.com





That's a fair point about NATO approval, but I don't doubt that'll scupper the idea.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 9, 2022)

That just confuses me. How is it ok to send missles, rockets, ammo and other lethal military hardware but not ok to send aircraft?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 9, 2022)

Political legerdemain? USA doing some sort of bureaucratic butt protection? I agree with vikingBerserker.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> That just confuses me. How is it ok to send missles, rockets, ammo and other lethal military hardware but not ok to send aircraft?


Aircraft, like ships, must bear the flag of the owning nation. 
If a polish flag aircraft landed in Ukraine and then conducted operations, that's an act of war. 
If a aircraft is painted with the Ukrainian flag in Poland and flown to Ukraine, that too ends Polish neutrality. 

The only possible way around it would be to land in a third party nation (Moldova forex) and have them paint the aircraft in primer & drain all fuel & empty all weapons before the Ukrainians push or pull the aircraft across the border. This would be like what the US did at the Canadian border from 1939 to 1941.

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## Denniss (Mar 9, 2022)

Just tow the MiGs to the polish-ukrainian border and let the Ukrainians "steal" them. Just make sure you remove polish insignias before that.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 9, 2022)

US/Canadian border, 1940

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Aircraft, like ships, must bear the flag of the owning nation.
> If a polish flag aircraft landed in Ukraine and then conducted operations, that's an act of war.
> If a aircraft is painted with the Ukrainian flag in Poland and flown to Ukraine, that too ends Polish neutrality.
> 
> The only possible way around it would be to land in a third party nation (Moldova forex) and have them paint the aircraft in primer & drain all fuel & empty all weapons before the Ukrainians push or pull the aircraft across the border. This would be like what the US did at the Canadian border from 1939 to 1941.



There are ways around that though. When we worked on aircraft being sold to foreign countries we would put huge stickers with the N registration number covering the new country registration. Once it landed in another country they merely peel off the sticker and voila its registered in the new country. No painting required.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why not also “donate” your ground-attack optimized Sukhoi Su-17s? The US will make sure you’re not left defenceless.


While more suited for this situation IMO, it's still a matter of operational training if the aircraft can even be supported logistically. Because the UAF was already operating MiG-25s the transfer would be almost seamless

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> That just confuses me. How is it ok to send missles, rockets, ammo and other lethal military hardware but not ok to send aircraft?



Legally all of the above are acts of war. I'm not sure why all the shilly-shallying over airplanes when we've already broken that law.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 9, 2022)

A brigade? Pulled out because of "loss of effectiveness"? Not good for the Russian Army...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

_The operator of the Chernobyl nuclear plant announced on Wednesday that Russian forces disconnected the facility's power grid.

Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian state-owned grid Chernobyl plant, wrote in a Telegram post that there is “no possibility” of restoring the lines because of Russia’s military action in the country.

“Because of military actions of Russian occupiers the nuclear power plant in Chornobyl was fully disconnected from the power grid. The nuclear station has no power supply,” Ukenergo wrote.

“The military actions are in progress, so there is no possibility to restore the lines,” the company added.

Russian forces took control of the Chernobyl nuclear plant last month amid its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow also seized the Zaporizhzhia power plant.

While it is now closed, the Chernobyl plant requires electricity for cooling, ventilation and fire extinguishing systems, according to The Washington Post.

Ukenergo wrote in a Facebook post on Wednesday that emergency diesel generators on site to supply power to critical systems have been turned on, though the fuel is only enough for 48 hours.

The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, wrote in a statement on Tuesday that “remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chornobyl NPP had been lost.”

“The Agency is looking into the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” the organization added.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is now calling for a cease-fire from Russia to allow repair units to rectify issues at the plant._









Ukraine says Russian forces disconnected Chernobyl plant from power grid


The operator of the Chernobyl nuclear plant announced on Wednesday that Russian forces disconnected the facility’s power grid.Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian state-owned grid operator, wrote in a Te…




thehill.com





We all saw what happened at Fukushima when those plants lost power to their cooling systems.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The operator of the Chernobyl nuclear plant announced on Wednesday that Russian forces disconnected the facility's power grid.
> 
> Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian state-owned grid Chernobyl plant, wrote in a Telegram post that there is “no possibility” of restoring the lines because of Russia’s military action in the country.
> 
> ...



Well thats not good. Won’t it overheat?


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well thats not good. Won’t it overheat?


Does this mean these plants aren't designed with a "fail safe" mode where it automatically switches to a low power setting making just enough power to handle its own operating needs? Unbelievable!! Downright criminal!!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Does this mean these plants aren't designed with a "fail safe" mode where it automatically switches to a low power setting making just enough power to handle its own operating needs? Unbelievable!! Downright criminal!!


 
I think the article said they are on emergency power but it was only good for 48 hours.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

From the article…

_"I call on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply… Reserve diesel generators have a 48-hour capacity to power the Chornobyl NPP," Kuleba added in a separate tweet. "After that, cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent."_

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## Crimea_River (Mar 9, 2022)

Coincidentally, the banner on CBC New Network just now shows no apparent concern - yet. I've not been able to verify the banner statement.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Does this mean these plants aren't designed with a "fail safe" mode where it automatically switches to a low power setting making just enough power to handle its own operating needs? Unbelievable!! Downright criminal!!



Without electricity to power the control rods, I'd imagine that's a tall ask. It may be that they can shut it down completely, but I'm not sure about that.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

In regards to the Polish MiG-29s, as has happened before since it was first proposed to supply the Ukraine with NATO MiGs last month, the announcements in the media have to be played down so it doesn't toss gasoline on the fire.

Remember the original announcement was officially retracted, then it surfaced again with an official "no" from Poland and now, here we are again with the MiGs in the media and now the U.S. is saying no.

I will lay money on the fact that the Ukraine will end up with them, but it will be on the down low with the jets being prepped and readied and then towed across a remote border crossing by "farmers" and then using that same highway, off they go by UAF pilot who "just happened to be nearby".

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

If this is true, then we definitely need war crimes trials once this debacle is all over:

_Russia has destroyed a children's hospital in the besieged port city of Mariupol in the south-east of Ukraine, the city council says.

In a statement issued on Facebook, officials say that "Russian occupying forces have dropped several bombs on the children's hospital. The destruction is colossal".

Council officials added that they do not yet know exact casualty numbers.

"The maternity ward in the city centre, the children's ward and the therapy ward at the hospital - all destroyed in a Russian air raid on Mariupol," the head of the regional military administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said in a Facebook video.

He added that those wounded in the strike are being evacuated to the nearest hospital.

The BBC cannot independently verify the allegations, but a local MP, Dmytro Gurin, repeated the claims during an interview with the corporation._


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I will lay money on the fact that the Ukraine will end up with them, but it will be on the down low with the jets being prepped and readied and then towed across a remote border crossing by "farmers" and then using that same highway, off they go by UAF pilot who "just happened to be nearby".



I sure hope you're right.

Given that the alleged nuclear alert Putin announced never materialized, I wonder how serious he can be about his threats.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I sure hope you're right.
> 
> Given that the alleged nuclear alert Putin announced never materialized, I wonder how serious he can be about his threats.


Not sure about empty nuke threats - creating a Chernoble V2.0 is a form of nuclear attack, sort of like one big-ass dirty bomb.
Problem is, his own forces are going to get smothered in the fallout, too...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not sure about empty nuke threats - creating a Chernoble V2.0 is a form of nuclear attack, sort of like one big-ass dirty bomb.
> Problem is, his own forces are going to get smothered in the fallout, too...



Add another war crime to the list. Unfortunately, you need the Russians to hand him over.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Problem is, his own forces are going to get smothered in the fallout, too...



Like Putin gives a damn about his own forces? 

Given his nature, he probably blames the Russian military for their failure to subdue Ukraine. It's not too far a stretch that he could enact a dirty bomb as retribution not only against Ukraine but also against his own soldiers who failed him.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Like Putin gives a damn about his own forces?
> 
> Given his nature, he probably blames the Russian military for their failure to subdue Ukraine. It's not too far a stretch that he could enact a dirty bomb as retribution not only against Ukraine but also against his own soldiers who failed him.



He’ll just call them “Heroes of Russia” and tell their mothers, wives, and children to piss off. Putin is a criminal and the sooner his people figure it out the better off they are.

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## J_P_C (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... and this just came up in my feed:
> 
> _Poland said on Wednesday that it wants to work with NATO countries to send fighter jets to Ukraine one day after the U.S. rejected Poland’s proposal.
> 
> ...


do you really believe that such things haven't been discussed between US an Poland before press release??


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## J_P_C (Mar 9, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> A brigade? Pulled out because of "loss of effectiveness"? Not good for the Russian Army...



this is military "newspeak" - it means unit have probably lost more than 70% of soldiers and all combat equipment

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

Just throwing this out there...I did some googling of hospitals in Mariupol. The video footage that's been release of the children's hospital tallies with this location:






The video footage of the destroyed buildings was taken in the central area of the inverted-U of buildings in the top left corner (buildings 66, 68, and 70) towards the top left corner of the satellite image. That inverted U-shaped set of buildings is not labelled as a children's hospital but many other buildings around there are clearly labelled as hospital facilities.

Just sharing for what it's worth.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You've got to admit, those pesky Ukrainians have a habit of stealing everything that isn't nailed down ...

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## J_P_C (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Without electricity to power the control rods, I'd imagine that's a tall ask. It may be that they can shut it down completely, but I'm not sure about that.


nuclear power pant are designed fail safe for a case of power lost - control rods in such case will be completlyy inserted to the reactor and it will be switched off this way

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 9, 2022)

I thought all the reactors has been shot down years ago, which means the plant is not generating any power at all.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> nuclear power pant are designed fail safe for a case of power lost - control rods in such case will be completlyy inserted to the reactor and it will be switched off this way



Yes but without power the reactor cannot be cooled. At least that is how I understand it.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I thought all the reactors has been shot down years ago, which means the plant is not generating any power at all.



I think you are correct, but don’t the spent fuel rods require cooling?

I am not a nuclear power plant expert… lol


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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

Chernobyl has four reactors, unit 4 is the one that went critical, the other three remained functional until a few years ago.
They've been in the process of decommissioning it, but the three functioning reactors still need their cooling systems operational.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Chernobyl has four reactors, unit 4 is the one that went critical, the other three remained functional until a few years ago.
> They've been in the process of decommissioning it, but the three functioning reactors still need their cooling systems operational.



Yeap, thats how I understand it.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 9, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> US/Canadian border, 1940
> 
> View attachment 660707


I knew Bolos needed more horse power.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You've got to admit, those pesky Ukrainians have a habit of stealing everything that isn't nailed down ...



They're merely acquiring farm tractors with government tax subsidies.

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## msxyz (Mar 9, 2022)

Spent fuel rods need to spend several years under water after they've been extracted from the core. There are several short lived, but highly radioactive isotopes that need to decay inside these spend fuel rods. These emit heat in addition to strong radiation. Water cools them and absorb most of the radiation, ensuring that, after a few years, no major nuclear reaction is happening inside them. This is the real bane of nuclear reactors using uranium fuel (unless it's enriched to very high levels, like it's done in sub reactors). You can't simply pull out a spent fuel rod and stash it somewhere, like you would do with an exhausted battery.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In regards to the Polish MiG-29s, as has happened before since it was first proposed to supply the Ukraine with NATO MiGs last month....


Now I'm beginning to suspect that the MiGs have already been repainted, trucked into Ukraine and are already flying with the UAF.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

wow...tell me if this doesn't sound like a headline from the 1940's but with different players...









Ukraine Cold Snap Set To Freeze Russian Convoy, Could See Soldiers Quit


Glen Grant, from the Baltic Security Foundation, told Newsweek the cold weather will demoralize Russian troops stuck outside the Ukrainian capital and add to the logistical problems they already face.




www.newsweek.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...tell me if this doesn't sound like a headline from the 1940's but with different players...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The irony of this.

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## Dimlee (Mar 9, 2022)

Someone was just betrayed by General Winter...

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## Dimlee (Mar 9, 2022)

_"The purpose of this letter is to urge, in the strongest possible sense, immediate action to
provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a viable mid- and high-altitude air defense capability."_



https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21399038/an-open-letter-to-the-leaders-of-democratic-governments-of-the-world.pdf

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## Dimlee (Mar 9, 2022)

Ben Wallace: 
"However, the capability needs strengthening, so in response to Ukrainian requests the Government have taken the decision to explore the donation of Starstreak high-velocity, man-portable anti-air missiles."








Defence Secretary statement to the House of Commons on Ukraine: 9 March 2022


Defence Secretary Ben Wallace gave a statement to the House of Commons on Ukraine.




www.gov.uk

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Legally all of the above are acts of war. I'm not sure why all the shilly-shallying over airplanes when we've already broken that law.



Yes, but there’s a subtle difference. An aircraft flying from NATO territory into Ukraine could easily be the first wave of a NATO offensive. It’s readily visible on radar. It’s easy to see how Russia would consider that a much more provocative action than driving a truck full of boxes across the border (which can’t really be detected).

I agree that it ought to be possible to simply drag them over the border, just as American aircraft made it to Canada prior to December 1941. However, that’s a substantial logistical challenge, even assuming there are suitable highways at the border that could be used as a take-off runway.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 9, 2022)

Fuhrer 2.0, met Winter War 2.0

Oh the irony...........

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...tell me if this doesn't sound like a headline from the 1940's but with different players...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I thought the Germans were waiting for colder weather to freeze the mud. Assuming they can find gas isn‘t the cold better for the Russians?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yes, but there’s a subtle difference. An aircraft flying from NATO territory into Ukraine could easily be the first wave of a NATO offensive.


Does that same logic prevent Ukraine from receiving MLRS rocket launchers? They’re an effective counter-battery weapon and can hit the Russian launch sites.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does that same logic prevent Ukraine from receiving MLRS rocket launchers? They’re an effective counter-battery weapon and can hit the Russian launch sites.



Those are still trucked on the ground and will not be launching from NATO countries. Cannot be confused as a NATO attack.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thought the Germans were waiting for colder weather to freeze the mud. Assuming they can find gas isn‘t the cold better for the Russians?


I think Putin might be going for a replay of the Winter War. Therefore, this time the snow does not in fact help the Russians.

Thanks vB.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 9, 2022)

Bwa-ha-ha! This is almost as good as the lego'd bear foot...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Cannot be confused as a NATO attack.



Or, given Putin's propensity for altering the truth, deliberately misconstruing it as a NATO attack.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Or, given Putin's propensity for *altering the truth,* deliberately misconstruing it as a NATO attack.



Alternative Facts

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 9, 2022)

Truly sad part, it you're probably spot on.

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## J_P_C (Mar 9, 2022)



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## pgeno71 (Mar 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Alternative Facts


Or the even more Orwellian - "truth over facts."

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thought the Germans were waiting for colder weather to freeze the mud. Assuming they can find gas isn‘t the cold better for the Russians?


The Germans' offensive was launched almost a month and a half late and they assumed a quick victory before winter.

They only time they hoped for frozen ground, was to help their retreat...

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...tell me if this doesn't sound like a headline from the 1940's but with different players...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How about 1812, and yet a different cast of characters?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> do you really believe that such things haven't been discussed between US an Poland before press release??



No. As I noted above, it's infuriating, the bureaucratese being practiced by our American government, to the point of allowing the Pentagon to dictate foreign policy.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I thought all the reactors has been shot down years ago, which means the plant is not generating any power at all.



It was my misunderstanding. I knew the spent fuel still had residual heat. I had thought they were still hot enough to generate an explosion absent cooling water pumped over them. This is apparently not the case; the spent fuel rods do indeed have residual heat, but the waters over them are sufficient.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 9, 2022)

It just absolutely blows my mind, I wish we had more leaders like Zelenskyy.

I cannot fathom leaders being this corwardly.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> It just absolutely blows my mind, I wish we had more leaders like Zelenskyy.


Nah...we're too suave and sophisticated to elect an actor and TV personality to be our president.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No. As I noted above, it's infuriating, the bureaucratese being practiced by our American government, to the point of allowing the Pentagon to dictate foreign policy.


It seems to me, that what's going on, is plausible deniability.

Putin's war is not going his way and he is going to try to use anything as justification for expanding/intensifying the situation.

So the governments are going to deny directly sending any aircraft to Ukraine even though they (Ukraine) *may* end up with some from "somewhere".

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## pgeno71 (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It seems to me, that what's going on, is plausible deniability.
> 
> Putin's war is not going his way and he is going to try to use anything as justification for expanding/intensifying the situation.
> 
> So the governments are going to deny directly sending any aircraft to Ukraine even though they (Ukraine) *may* end up with some from "somewhere".


I hope that's what happens. The whole situation just seems wacky. If you are secretly trying to move planes into the country, just do it. You have deniability. Now, after all these press releases, it actually makes it harder to deny, and it's assumed you are lying. At least our position could have been, "Migs? What Migs? We know nothing of Migs. We build Lockheeds. Are there any Lockheeds in Ukraine?

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## WARSPITER (Mar 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It seems to me, that what's going on, is plausible deniability.
> 
> Putin's war is not going his way and he is going to try to use anything as justification for expanding/intensifying the situation.
> 
> So the governments are going to deny directly sending any aircraft to Ukraine even though they (Ukraine) *may* end up with some from "somewhere".


Yes. The Ukrainian logistics organisation has been training for this. Those tanks being towed by farmers tractors were a warm up for the main event.
Yes, you may also construe this as being not only an attempt at humour but a serious possibility.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 9, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I hope that's what happens. The whole situation just seems wacky. If you are secretly trying to move planes into the country, just do it. You have deniability. Now, after all these press releases, it actually makes it harder to deny, and it's assumed you are lying. At least our position could have been, "Migs? What Migs? We know nothing of Migs. We build Lockheeds. Are there any Lockheeds in Ukraine?


Well hard to make anything of this since WE (the US) been covertly operating MiG-29s in the US since the 1980s. There are even civilians operating them (I know a few)

Although this "plan" got a lot of press I think there is more to this - it might be a cover for some other equipment that might find it's way to Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 9, 2022)

This is all a very sad end for the Mikoyan brand of fighters. Brother on brother with the same types. I wonder if the Mikoyan PAK program will go anywhere or if this is the end of the MiG.


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## Graeme (Mar 9, 2022)

My brother took photos of the 2008 Moscow Victory Day Parade (the first in 17 years?). He said it was a mild affair until the nukes arrived - then the crowd went beserk with wild excitement, thunderous yelling and cheering. So loud you "couldn't hear ya self think."

What's this one?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 9, 2022)

Graeme said:


> My brother took photos of the 2008 Moscow Victory Day Parade (the first in 17 years?). He said it was a mild affair until the nukes arrived - then the crowd went beserk with wild excitement, thunderous yelling and cheering. So loud you "couldn't hear ya self think."
> 
> What's this one?
> 
> View attachment 660776



It's a Topol-M, the replacement for the SS-25 as Russia's land-based mobile strategic deterrent.

CORRECTION...actually that's the older SS-25. It's been replaced by the Topol-M.


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## at6 (Mar 9, 2022)

Putin may be starting to think that he will lose and so wants to kill as many innocent people as possible before withdrawal.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

at6 said:


> Putin may be starting to think that he will lose and so wants to kill as many innocent people as possible before withdrawal.


He was planning on just fighting the Ukraine military.

He had no idea that the grand army of the Farmers would enter the fight and steal all his equipment...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 9, 2022)

Speaking of which...

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I knew Bolos needed more horse power.


Digbys

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## SaparotRob (Mar 10, 2022)

As I was typing "Digby" I was afraid to be wrong again so rather than double check, I played it safe.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

Well, one could argue that in the picture it's a Bolo on it's way to become a Digby because it hasn't been modifed yet ...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> He was planning on just fighting the Ukraine military.
> 
> He had no idea that the grand army of the Farmers would enter the fight and steal all his equipment...


Perhaps we should send the ukrainians more John Deere and less MiG so they can steal russian equipment faster.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Perhaps we should send the ukrainians more John Deere and less MiG so they can steal russian equipment faster.


That would be a good idea!

Also, I was just reading where Russians were stealing fuel from farmers for their vehicles, but the Farmers put chemicals in the fuel in their farm's storage containers, so it ends up disabling the Russian's engines! 😄

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 10, 2022)

I hear the Ukrainians need more busses to haul POWs to the camps. Their fleet seems to be maxed out.

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## J_P_C (Mar 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No. As I noted above, it's infuriating, the bureaucratese being practiced by our American government, to the point of allowing the Pentagon to dictate foreign policy.


i'm with you - 100%

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## J_P_C (Mar 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That would be a good idea!
> 
> Also, I was just reading where Russians were stealing fuel from farmers for their vehicles, but the Farmers put chemicals in the fuel in their farm's storage containers, so it ends up disabling the Russian's engines! 😄


"chemicals" are simply sugar - it is dissoluting in fuel and than chocking fuel system elements.

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## The Basket (Mar 10, 2022)

The oil ban is a point.

Russian Oil is not covered in the sanction so it's open to buy.

So banning is on a country to country option. So the price of petrol is high and getting higher which will have a knock on effect to the economy especially after the COVID lockdown.

Banning Russian Oil is a good idea for Ukraine but bad for the country buying it. The price of oil is already high and it's getting higher driving up inflation and the cost of living.

We are living in interesting times and no mistake.

If oil is the only card Putin can play then removing it can be a game changer.

There are countries like India that are on the fence for reasons. If Putin goes nuts then it does risk what allies he has. Especially if chemical weapons are used.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 10, 2022)

GrauGeist


What were they putting in the fuel to disable tank engines?


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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> GrauGeist
> 
> 
> What were they putting in the fuel to disable tank engines?


As J_P_C said, it's simple sugar. Clogs the fuel filters and injectors and will cause the diesel to stop running.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> As J_P_C said, it's simple sugar. Clogs the fuel filters and injectors and will cause the diesel to stop running.


Then it's just a case of hooking up to a tractor to tow it somewhere safe so the lines can be backflushed and the filters changed. Voila, new owner.
Worst case is the fuel pump will be damaged.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 10, 2022)

wlewisiii

That's just awesome!


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 10, 2022)

How embarrassing is that, step out of your tent and somebody stole your tank.

At least in NYC they have the curtesy of putting your tank on cinder blacks and just stealing the treads.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No. As I noted above, it's infuriating, the bureaucratese being practiced by our American government, to the point of allowing the Pentagon to dictate foreign policy.



I'm not sure that's what we're seeing here. While I haven't worked in the Pentagon, I have seen the relationship between the State Dept and Combatant Commands...and the military never acts without State Dept approval and doesn't dictate anything to the State Dept. That kind of thing just doesn't fly because, at the end of the day, the Pentagon can't dictate anything outside its own area of responsibility.

As noted before, flying a combat aircraft from NATO territory into Ukraine could be perceived/deliberately misconstrued as an attack and, in the heat of the moment, something stupid could happen where Russian forces fire into a NATO nation. Is that really what we want to see happen? 

Recall the Iranian shootdown of a Ukrainian airliner in 2020, which was hit by the same SA-15 missile systems that we're seeing in Ukraine. That event resulted, in part, from Iranian fears of incoming cruise missiles. Imagine if Russian/Belarusian air defenders near the borders with NATO are getting itchy trigger fingers. What's the chance that a similar mistake might not happen if they're worried about an incoming NATO attack? 

I recognize everyone's frustration, indeed I share a lot of it. But flying a combat aircraft from NATO territory is something very different than driving trucks of munitions over the border. It will look different to Russian forces and their response may be disproportionate (that's what we're seeing every day with the shelling of civilian areas in Ukraine). Expansion of this ugly, terrible war would be much worse.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The oil ban is a point.
> 
> Russian Oil is not covered in the sanction so it's open to buy.
> 
> ...



Although UAE has offered to increase production, which resulted in an immediate and substantial fall in the price of crude. Now, how long that might take to reach the pumps is a different question (oil companies are always quick to raise prices but seem to take a lot longer to reduce them).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I recognize everyone's frustration, indeed I share a lot of it. But flying a combat aircraft from NATO territory is something very different than driving trucks of munitions over the border. It will look different to Russian forces and their response may be disproportionate (that's what we're seeing every day with the shelling of civilian areas in Ukraine). Expansion of this ugly, terrible war would be much worse.



Frustration is exactly what it is with me; I hate seeing the Ukrainians suffer so, and equally I hate seeing the gallantry of their men and women underarms go to waste due to some schlub in DC whose worst crisis today will be paying $75 to fill up his SUV.

As for weapons sales, they are indeed a matter of foreign policy in American government, which falls under the purview of the State Dept. DoD can advise, but cannot bar, unless the technology being transferred is under an export ban to the country in question.

I understand the reasoning, and yes, I can see how such a donation, flown in, could be seen as offensive on a radar-screen even if it's an unarmed redeployment.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> "chemicals" are simply sugar - it is dissoluting in fuel and than chocking fuel system elements.


One of the Farmers interviewed, had mentioned liquid fertilizer.

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## The Basket (Mar 10, 2022)

The price of Nickel has gone loopy as I will give u 3 guesses who is the major source for Nickel.

I tell you that economically we are all in such a very tight squeeze.

It's just going nuts.

We could be in for a bumpy ride.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

That's what happens when you remove a huge country from the world economy with little notice or planning. It can't be helped. 

The only thing that'll bite, for me, are the gas prices, because I live a ways out in the country. Even that will be manageable, and given what the Ukrainians are suffering, I'll bite the bullet in the hope that this further cripples ole Vlad the Imposter.

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## The Basket (Mar 10, 2022)

The world economy is entwined.

By trying to wreck the Russian economy it has side effects. Especially with oil and raw material. And Russia may now default on its debt.

Maybe you will accept higher petrol prices but many other will not.

It's now longer if but when the Western economy feels a very sharp pinch. Especially trying to recover from lock down.

I read economy news and then wish I don't.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> As J_P_C said, it's simple sugar. Clogs the fuel filters and injectors and will cause the diesel to stop running.


That reminds me the novel The fist of God of Frederick Forsyth.

Sugar in the fuel tank.

Sweet, indeed!

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## Crimea_River (Mar 10, 2022)

Looks to me like Poutine is setting up for a chemical attack. First, he publicly accuses the US of manufacturing chemical weapons in the Ukraine. Next, IMO he will use them himself under the cover of having destroyed the satanic WMD facilities. Any chemical releases will be the west's fault.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Looks to me like Poutine is setting up for a chemical attack. First, he publicly accuses the US of manufacturing chemical weapons in the Ukraine. Next, IMO he will use them himself under the cover of having destroyed the satanic WMD facilities. Any chemical releases will be the west's fault.



There have also been Russian news reports of Ukrainians stockpiling materials to counter chemical weapons, the inference being that Ukraine is going to launch a chem attack.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

Another update...Russia can take over the assets of foreign companies who've ceased Russian operations:

_Putin says the Russian government can take over the assets of foreign companies pulling out of Russia.

He says Russia can "introduce external management" of those businesses closing their production facilities, and then "hand these enterprises to those who are willing to work."

"We'll find a legal way to do this," he says._

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## Crimea_River (Mar 10, 2022)

If the assets are on Russian soil then that would be a no-brainer for him. Finding a "legal" way to do this is very noble of him.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

I'm sure they can find a legal way. Finding a financial way to make that happen is something else. It's hard to drum up the capital investment to (re)start a business if you're solely reliant on Russian banks and the inflation-hit ruble.

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## The Basket (Mar 10, 2022)

The legal definition will be Finders v Keepers.

What else can go wrong.

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## special ed (Mar 10, 2022)

Let's see how a Russian Mickey Dee will do.

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## Dimlee (Mar 10, 2022)

Mariupol today.
Probably something larger than FAB-500 used earlier.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

Drone footage of a Russian tank column being hit. It's pretty ugly.



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622a2f1a980bea49f4b7bec0%26Watch%3A%20Ukrainian%20strike%20destroys%20Russian%20tanks%262022-03-10T17%3A44%3A32.558Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a7654a67-8856-454b-8994-ebff337279ca&pinned_post_asset_id=622a2f1a980bea49f4b7bec0&pinned_post_type=share

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The world economy is entwined.
> 
> By trying to wreck the Russian economy it has side effects. Especially with oil and raw material. And Russia may now default on its debt.
> 
> ...



And yet the pinch of oil prices promises to put back into production many fracking/tar-sand operations in America which only turn a profit at +$45/ibbl.

I get that my views on feeling the pinch ain't shared by all. Okay.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)

Some interesting interviews with Ukrainian soldiers in Kharkiv:









Ukraine war: On the front line of the battle for Kharkiv


Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian forces fighting to stop the Russian advance on the country's second city.



www.bbc.com


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## SaparotRob (Mar 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And yet the pinch of oil prices promises to put back into production many fracking/tar-sand operations in America which only turn a profit at +$45/ibbl.
> 
> I get that my views on feeling the pinch ain't shared by all. Okay.


Ready, willing and able to take one for the team, Sir! 
I’ve been fortunate all my life. I’ll deal with some discomfort.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ready, willing and able to take one for the team, Sir!
> I’ve been fortunate all my life. I’ll deal with some discomfort.


Same here.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

Me three

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ready, willing and able to take one for the team, Sir!
> I’ve been fortunate all my life. I’ll deal with some discomfort.



We each have the privilege of not being bombarded and/or assaulted. Who am I to complain about gas prices when two million Ukrainians have left everything in life behind to avoid death and destruction?

Pa Thump used to say, "If you can throw money at it, is it really a problem?" In this case, absolutely not -- for those of us lucky enough to not live in the war-zone. That sense of perspective is important and one that we Americans should keep in mind.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

GOP Rep. Cawthorn calls Zelensky a 'thug,' says Ukraine is pushing 'woke ideologies'


Rep. Madison Cawthorn, R-N.C., called President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine a "thug" at a campaign event over the weekend.




www.yahoo.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 10, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> GOP Rep. Cawthorn calls Zelensky a 'thug,' says Ukraine is pushing 'woke ideologies'
> 
> 
> Rep. Madison Cawthorn, R-N.C., called President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine a "thug" at a campaign event over the weekend.
> ...


Just read that - what a tool!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 10, 2022)

Words fail me.

If there was ever a poster child for being out of touch with current events, she's it.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 10, 2022)

Yup. Scratching my head.


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 10, 2022)

I have a friend who is a die hard conspiracy theorist, into the illuminati, believed there were CIA run bio labs in the Ukraine, etc. Up until a week ago she believed the whole war was fake and it was being perpetrated by the "Left Wing Media." Finally changed her tune when some other politicians she was supporting realized they were on the wrong side of public opinion and now came out in support of Ukraine!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

I'd say a whole lot about Cawthorn but it would go across too many red lines here. Suffice to say, I wonder where his campaign money is _really_ coming from. My own state's Senator Johnson as well.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 10, 2022)

Just to lighten things up....

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Words fail me.
> 
> If there was ever a poster child for being out of touch with current events, *she's* it.



He…

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 10, 2022)

Drone footage shows Ukrainian ambush on Russian tanks


Armoured vehicles in built-up area about 22 miles from central Kyiv come under repeated attack




www.theguardian.com

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## The Basket (Mar 10, 2022)

I don't own a motorized vehicle so the price of petrol is not an issue.

However I do enjoy a nice packet of crisps. And the cost will rise due to increased transport costs.

I am aware that the price of petrol in USA is a hot topic. So we shall see if the population is as forgiving as you guys.

I guess one thing is true. I have no idea what's going on. When I wake up in the morning, first thing I do is check news to see what's happening. See if Kyiv is still there.

I suppose waking up in the first place is a good sign of no nuclear strike so on a win already.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

The Basket said:


> I don't own a motorized vehicle so the price of petrol is not an issue.
> 
> However I do enjoy a nice packet of crisps. And the cost will rise due to increased transport costs.
> 
> ...



So I guess we should just let Putin rape and pillage Ukraine so you can have a cheap packets of Walkers Crisps and we can enjoy cheap gas?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 10, 2022)

The Basket said:


> When I wake up in the morning, first thing I do is check news to see what's happening. See if Kyiv is still there.


Me too. And you can get the Ukraine update in the first two minutes. The rest of the news is talking heads and time-filling commentary.


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So I guess we should just let Putin rape and pillage Ukraine so you can have a cheap packets of Walkers Crisps…


Yeah, that’s what he meant. What a dopey comment.

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## Glider (Mar 10, 2022)

There seems to be a general agreement that Russia has now committed almost all its front line troops into the conflict. This has got to be a serious concern for Putin and the leadership. 

Without reserves you cannot exploit opportunities, you cannot rotate or rest your troops, you cannot maintain your combat capability and with that, you cannot maintain your morale.

If he hasn't got the wherewithal to supply his troops with fuel and food then I would be surprised if the Russian Army to have the logistical support and workshops to keep the heavy equipment in fighting condition. If the Ukraine can hold out for another 10 to 14 days then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Russian effort come apart. 

Also in 10 to 14 days the impact on the Russian economy will be clear to even Putin's biggest supporters.

Its going to be a very tense couple of weeks

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yeah, that’s what he meant. What a dopey comment.



Noted.

Next time I’ll inform you specifically of my sarcasm first so I don’t get an equally dopey comment from you. Will that suffice for you?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> If the Ukraine can hold out for another 10 to 14 days then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Russian effort come apart.


No way Russia can encircle and strangle Kyiv in 14 days. Every day the Ukrainians receive more MANPATS/PADS, other weaponry and international legion reinforcements. 

The first offensive should have been straight south from Belarus along Ukraine’s border with Poland to cut off resupply.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> There seems to be a general agreement that Russia has now committed almost all its front line troops into the conflict. This has got to be a serious concern for Putin and the leadership.
> 
> Without reserves you cannot exploit opportunities, you cannot rotate or rest your troops, you cannot maintain your combat capability and with that, you cannot maintain your morale.
> 
> ...



My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention". The Russians could and probably will still win out despite the best efforts of Ukrainian fighters, if they decide to commit regular troops to it.

That would clearly be a bad mistake, bogging the Russians down for a decade to come, I reckon.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention". The Russians could and probably will still win out despite the best efforts of Ukrainian fighters, if they decide to commit regular troops to it.
> 
> That would clearly be a bad mistake, bogging the Russians down for a decade to come, I reckon.



Agreed

My understanding is that it is 100% of the forces dedicated to the invasion of Ukraine are committed. It’s not 100% of Russias forces. His first line and majority of his forces are not committed, and same for the equipment. Putin simply thought the conscripts and reserves would suffice for an easy victory.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention".


Plus he’ll need to leave forces to crush his own sanction-wrecked people when word of 10,000+ dead starts reaching home.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed
> 
> My understanding is that it is 100% of the forces dedicated to the invasion of Ukraine are committed. It’s not 100% of Russias forces. His first line and majority of his forces are not committed, and same for the equipment. Putin simply thought the conscripts and reserves would suffice for an easy victory.



He and his subordinate staff clearly underestimated operational requirements. I too had read that the 180,000 deployed in the build-up are now pretty much fully committed (aside from odds and sods). I don't know that Russia has much in their tank, given the need to guard against NATO, and still man the frontier at a light level.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 10, 2022)

As I've mentioned before, my thought is that the top Russian equipment is being held back for a couple reasons:
The Ukraine should have been taken easily.
There would be the possibility of NATO confrontation.

On the second point, I have suggested that the exposed convoys and unescorted troop transports seemed to me as NATO bait, because no one could be that sloppy with an operation.

Which leads us to another solid point:
Putin has always insisted that NATO has always been a threat to Russia.
And yet, here we are with not so much as a single twitch from NATO during this entire crisis.

So no wonder ol' Vlad is angry - the Ukraine has shown how much he underestimated them and NATO proved him to be a liar...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> On the second point, I have suggested that the exposed convoys and unescorted troop transports seemed to me as NATO bait, because no one could be that sloppy with an operation.



Forgive the Wiki:



> Hanlon's razor is an adage or rule of thumb that states "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."[1]











Hanlon's razor - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

Interesting post.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 10, 2022)

Russian state television goes off message by broadcasting criticism of war


Russian state television has broadcast calls for Vladimir Putin, the country’s president, to stop his war in Ukraine during a programme in which pundits openly likened the invasion to "Afghanistan, but even worse".




www.yahoo.com

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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

> The Head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention of Ukraine (NACP) Oleksandr Novikov sent a thank you letter to the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu praising his efforts to ensure the high level of corruption in the Russian army.
> 
> As particular examples of Shoigu's efforts to disgrace the Russian army, the Head of the NACP names the following facts the Ukrainian army discovered during the war started by Russia on February 24, 2022:
> 
> ...











Ukraine’s corruption prevention agency praises Russia's minister Shoigu for corruption in the army (VIDEO) | National Agency on Corruption Prevention


The Head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention of Ukraine (NACP) Oleksandr Novikov sent a thank you letter to the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu praising his efforts to ensure the high level of corruption in the Russian army. As ...




nazk.gov.ua

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## Zipper730 (Mar 10, 2022)

That's like an Onion satire right?

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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> That's like an Onion satire right?


Ukrainian government website so I presume they're trolling them. True or not is a different question.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 10, 2022)

I am a photographer. I do other things for my living but what I _am_ is a photographer. This is from one I know via the internet and should emulate.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Ukrainian government website so I presume they're trolling them.


You do realize the head of Ukraine was a former comedian? Trolling is the bread and butter of comedians!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 10, 2022)

Do not underestimate the power of mockery.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 10, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Mar 10, 2022)

No FRY Zone

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 10, 2022)

With as bad as their equipment seems to be I wake at night thinking about their NUKES.


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## J_P_C (Mar 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding is that the forces committed to the invasion of Ukraine are reservists, and the Russians are keeping first-line troops in reserve, perhaps to guard against NATO "intervention". The Russians could and probably will still win out despite the best efforts of Ukrainian fighters, if they decide to commit regular troops to it.
> 
> That would clearly be a bad mistake, bogging the Russians down for a decade to come, I reckon.


you are wrong - FR army has used mixed type of units for the invasion but most of used are pretty much " elite" - west simply overestimating Russian army - they did it during cold war and we are keep repeating the same mistake. Just dont try to be oversophisticated in this matter - what you are seeing in news is pretty much real picture of their armed forces.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> you are wrong - FR army has used mixed type of units for the invasion but most of used are pretty much " elite" - west simply overestimating Russian army - they did it during cold war and we are keep repeating the same mistake. Just dont try to be oversophisticated in this matter - what you are seeing in news is pretty much real picture of their armed forces.


J P C - I've heard things like this before from others who lived within the former Warsaw Pact. With that said and with the Ukraine being part of the former USSR, I would guess this is recognized and obviously exploited by the Ukrainian forces. Do you think this why we find the Russians attacking civilian targets?


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## at6 (Mar 11, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> With as bad as their equipment seems to be I wake at night thinking about their NUKES.


If we are lucky perhaps their nukes would explode on the launchers.


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## J_P_C (Mar 11, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> J P C - I've heard things like this before from others who lived within the former Warsaw Pact. With that said and with the Ukraine being part of the former USSR, I would guess this is recognized and obviously exploited by the Ukrainian forces. Do you think this why we find the Russians attacking civilian targets?


couple reasons - 1) civilian targets are easy ones, 2)they are unable to win with ukrainian army and trying to discharge their frustration, 3)their action is fully purposely directed to create shock within civilian population, 4) most important -russian army consist of creatures with mentality of mongolian horde - human posture is out of scope for most of them

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## at6 (Mar 11, 2022)

It would be nice to bury Vlad in Laurel and Hardy plaid.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

at6 said:


> It would be nice to bury Vlad in Laurel and Hardy plaid.



Actually, burying him in drag would be more apropos, IMHO. A nice, figure-hugging red dress covered in sparkly sequins, with matching 6-inch stilettos. Clearly, he’d need a full wig…and make-up plastered on with a trowel.

Naturally, as with all Soviet leaders, his body should be held in state so that the people could file past and pay their last disrespects. The period of in state mourning should continue until the ENTIRE Russian population has seen him in-person.

Am I over-thinking this?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 11, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> With as bad as their equipment seems to be I wake at night thinking about their NUKES.


It's got to cost some to maintain nuclear forces. Putin screwed up and now his "legion of liberation" has to be using more, now limited, resources. Vlad also has to maintain the front line stuff facing NATO. 
Egg carton tank armor. Stealing civilian transport to move men and equipment because his military transport has requisitioned by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. Yeah, I'm worried too. A military that shells nuclear power stations probably hasn't read the latest OSHA bulletins too thoroughly.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Actually, design him in drag would be more apropos, IMHO. I nice, figure-hugging red dress covered in sparkly sequins, with matching 6-inch stilettos. Clearly, he’d need a full wig…and make-up plastered on with a trowel.
> 
> Naturally, as with all Soviet leaders, his body should be held in state so that the people could file past and pay their last disrespects. The period of in state mourning should continue until the ENTIRE Russian population has seen him in-person.
> 
> Ami over-thinking this?


As long as he just goes.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> couple reasons - 1) civilian targets are easy ones, 2)they are unable to win with ukrainian army and trying to discharge their frustration, 3)their action is fully purposely directed to create shock within civilian population, 4) most important -russian army consist of creatures with mentality of mongolian horde - human posture is out of scope for most of them


I spent many evenings with my future father-in-law (who is former Bulgarian Army), discussing the Russian's and their mind-set.
He exclaimed that they are all "villagers and peasants" and have no culture and no decency.
He exclaimed that they are like lost children unless they are told what to do.

The more Rakia we shared, the harsher was his opinion of Russians!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 11, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> With as bad as their equipment seems to be I wake at night thinking about their NUKES.


I wonder if the Russian nukes are even maintained and operational. Their military seems a shambles. Not that I want to test that inquiry.


at6 said:


> If we are lucky perhaps their nukes would explode on the launchers.


IIRC the Russian depend on some hyper reactive fuel that is highly corrosive. Are they being maintained? Of course you just need a few to work.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> 4) most important -russian army consist of creatures with mentality of mongolian horde - human posture is out of scope for most of them


It’s too bad the Weimar Republic didn’t work out, as I believe Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Poland may well have joined forces by the 1940s to counter an expansionist Stalin. We could have been shod of Russian aggression by now.

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## J_P_C (Mar 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s too bad the Weimar Republic didn’t work out, as I believe Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Poland may well have joined forces by the 1940s to counter an expansionist Stalin. We could have been shod of Russian aggression by now.


could be... - i dont like "what if" style historical dyvagations - it usually lead us nowhere because of number of variables influencing series of events.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 11, 2022)

I am looking for an opinion from everyone about the Polish Mig transfer situation. I understand the escalation argument and the explanation delivered by Gen Wolters that the reward for such a risky venture was low, in that, the impact of Ukraine's ability to defend itself would not be enhanced by the few additional Migs. I am looking for people's opinion on the tactical situation that Wolters then presented. He said that the anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons systems were more beneficial for the Ukrainian tactical situation than aircraft. 

You guys have demonstrated a much greater knowledge of modern weapon systems and modern warfare than I have, what do you guys think of Wolters' assessment?


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## ThomasP (Mar 11, 2022)

I think that having the Mig-29s would be a serious morale booster for the Ukrainians while the aircraft survived, but would not have a major effect otherwise on the outcome of the war. The Ukrainians would need many more aircraft to effect the outcome. The problem is that the Ukrainians could not feasibly create a large enough air force to counter the RF assets - the air-to-air regime is probably the area of greatest difference in capability between the two nations. The MANPADS is a far more effective system for the Ukrainians in terms of hurting the RF air force - as long as they do not get cut off from supply and are able to deploy them. Large numbers of drones and the equipment to support them, along with the munitions for them, would be a better investment for the Ukrainians than the Mig-29s, though probably somewhat frustrating.

The MANPATS is in a similar position to effect the RF ground forces. The Ukrainians would need a large number of tanks to counter the RF armoured units - while surviving the threat from the RF aircraft, attack helicopters, tanks, and enemy MANPATS. The Ukrainian MANPATS teams will take out far more enemy vehicles for a given amount of manpower and material cost.

The comparisons that are being made to the USSR / Afghanistan war is IMO a good one, with similar land areas and populations, and with the added factors that the Ukraine has a far larger and more organized military than the Afghans had at the start of their war - and has far better communications and near realtime intelligence sources.

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## The Basket (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So I guess we should just let Putin rape and pillage Ukraine so you can have a cheap packets of Walkers Crisps and we can enjoy cheap gas?


I find it very poor form that it would be considered that I would support the Ukrainian invasion on any level.

Absolutely poor form.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s too bad the Weimar Republic didn’t work out, as I believe Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Poland may well have joined forces by the 1940s to counter an expansionist Stalin. We could have been shod of Russian aggression by now.


Not likely. The mess that was left over from WWI and Versailles pretty much put paid to that concept. The Blood Lands were going to be a war zone pretty no matter what. The only question was when. Hitler didn't create the circumstances rather he took advantage of hates, tensions and economic woes already present.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

In addition it looks like Putin is setting the stage for how he can pull out and stay in power.



Classic Russia - a few trials, a few executions and probably a few internal exiles after Tsar Putin claims he was mislead and status quo ante bellum.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

And a follow up to the photographer I posted last night:

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

No outside verification yet but it's not implausible...






Путін готує теракт на ЧАЕС







gur.gov.ua







> *Message**Putin is preparing a terrorist attack on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant*March 11, 2022
> According to available information, Vladimir Putin has ordered the preparation of a terrorist attack at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The Russian-controlled Chernobyl nuclear power plant plans to create a man-made catastrophe, for which the occupiers will try to shift responsibility to Ukraine.
> Currently, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is completely disconnected from the monitoring systems of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The station is de-energized. The resource of available diesel generators is designed for 48 hours of maintenance of safety systems.
> The occupiers refused to grant access to the station to Ukrainian repairmen. Instead, "Belarusian specialists" went there on the instructions of Alexander Lukashenko. Among them, under the guise of nuclear power plants, Russian saboteurs also come to organize a terrorist attack.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 11, 2022)

On the slightly related news, the Tu 141 recon drone crashed yesterday in Croatia, after flying through Romanian and Hungarian airspace. No casualties.
So much for the air defenses of the 3 countries.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet -- Edited because some people want to tell me what I mean. Let there not be any confusion. (Mar 11, 2022)

The Basket said:


> I find it very poor form that it would be considered that I would support the Ukrainian invasion on any level.
> 
> Absolutely poor form.



That was not my intent. You are not the only one allowed to have sarcasm around here.

However, my apologies. I was honestly not implying you were supporting the invasion.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Noted.
> 
> Next time I’ll inform you specifically of my sarcasm first so I don’t get an equally dopey comment from you.


If my comment was dopey why are you apologizing below? You clearly implied support of the invasion and are now with good reason backtracking. I can only call it as I see it.


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That was not my intent. However, my apologies. It was honestly not my intent to imply you were supporting the invasion.


You appear to have forgotten that the audience, not the writer decides the meaning of what’s written. As the writer, if what’s deciphered is not what you intended, that’s on you.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> In addition it looks like Putin is setting the stage for how he can pull out and stay in power.
> 
> 
> 
> Classic Russia - a few trials, a few executions and probably a few internal exiles after Tsar Putin claims he was mislead and status quo ante bellum.



The purges begin.

In other news…









Chief accountant of SE ranking and her two children killed in Ukraine | MarTech


Tatiana Perebeinis was among four people killed in a Russian attack at the weekend.




martech.org


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If my comment was dopey why are you apologizing below? You clearly implied support of the invasion and are now with good reason backtracking. I can only call it as I see it.
> 
> You appear to have forgotten that the audience, not the writer decides the meaning of what’s written. As the writer, if what’s deciphered is not what you intended, that’s on you.



I’m not backtracking on anything. I apologized to him in good faith because it was the right thing to do as it was not my intent. Its called a courtesy. I’m not an asshole. *Besides, my post was directed to him (not you). Hense, why it was the right thing (and adult thing) to do in the sake of friendship and healthy debate. So why you feel the need to stir the pot when there is no reason is beyond me as it has nothing to do with you.*

Nor did I “clearly imply support of the invasion.” I simply was stating in a sarcastic manner that we either endure some hardships or we let them get away with it.

Who the hell are you to tell me (or anyone for that matter) what I implied or meant to say? I was not aware you were inside my thoughts.

*Now if you have a problem with me then send it to me in a PM, stop distracting from the actual topic of the thread, and stop stirring up shit where there is none, and seriously, please stop making a mountain out of a mole hill.*

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Now if it’s ok with you, maybe we can get back to the topic at hand?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You appear to have forgotten that the audience, not the writer decides the meaning of what’s written. As the writer, if what’s deciphered is not what you intended, that’s on you.



Not that I have a side in this disagreement, but in any communication, misunderstandings can equally-well be based on a mistaken understanding by the audience. Pinning it all on the writer ignores the fact that reading too is an art.

In short: a misunderstanding can arise from several sources ... not only the writer.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not that I have a side in this disagreement, but in any communication, misunderstandings can equally-well be based on a mistaken understanding by the audience. Pinning it all on the writer ignores the fact that reading too is an art.
> 
> In short: a misunderstanding can arise from several sources ... not only the writer.



And thank you…

This really is an issue of misunderstanding that has been clarified. There is no need for anyone to stir the pot.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

If you look at the photos, the difference is the same as the Ukrainian claims. This makes me more confident in the accuracy of their other claims.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> If you look at the photos, the difference is the same as the Ukrainian claims. This makes me more confident in the accuracy of their other claims.




'Fraid you can't make that correlation or draw any such conclusions. The "missing" aircraft could be in the hangar for deep maintenance/repairs or they could be airborne.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> If you look at the photos, the difference is the same as the Ukrainian claims. This makes me more confident in the accuracy of their other claims.




I wonder what Ukraines capabilities are in regards to launching their own missile strikes? Belarus has troops in Ukraine and is allowing Russia to launch air strikes from within its borders. Ukraine would be justified in destroying those aircraft on the ground.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I wonder what Ukraines capabilities are in regards to launching their own missile strikes? Belarus has troops in Ukraine and is allowing Russia to launch air strikes from within its borders. Ukraine would be justified in destroying those aircraft on the ground.



Agree...but I suspect the Russian response would simply be to up the ante on the "shock and awe" they're imposing on the Ukrainian civilian population....if it's possible to be more indiscriminate than they already are.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 11, 2022)

Why did I hear the Bayraktar song in my mind while I was looking at those lines of aircraft?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Why did I hear the Bayraktar song in my mind while I was looking at those lines of aircraft?



That song goes through my mind a lot, too. 

Seems that another Russian general has been killed:










_Western officials have confirmed that a third Russian major general has been killed in Ukraine, adding that he was from Russia's eastern military district.
Officials didn't name the general, but earlier Ukraine's military said Maj Gen Andrei Kolesnikov, commander of the 29th army of Russia's eastern district, had been killed.
Analysts have previously said that the presence of high-ranking military figures on or near the battlefield could be a sign that Russia's operations are not going to plan._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree...but I suspect the Russian response would simply be to up the ante on the "shock and awe" they're imposing on the Ukrainian civilian population....if it's possible to be more indiscriminate than they already are.



Yeah, but if you are going to fight a war of survival you have to fight back and take away the aggressors ability to hurt you. That convoy that is now dispersed was a huge missed opportunity for example. How many days did it sit there?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Marie Yovanovitch Wears Damning Message To Putin On ‘The Late Show’


The former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine condemned the Russian president with her choice of accessory.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, but if you are going to fight a war of survival you have to fight back and take away the aggressors ability to hurt you. That convoy that is now dispersed was a huge missed opportunity for example. How many days did it sit there?



Don't disagree...but launching missiles into Russia or Belarus from Ukraine won't be ignored. The other challenge is whether Ukraine has any assets of sufficient range, and supporting targeting capabilities, to hit the airfield(s) in Belarus.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Don't disagree...but launching missiles into Russia or Belarus from Ukraine won't be ignored. The other challenge is whether Ukraine has any assets of sufficient range, and supporting targeting capabilities, to hit the airfield(s) in Belarus.



Of course it won’t be ignored, but they are in a war. If you can hit back, do it!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Heh. I wonder what they've got up there actually that's pinging that transponder code?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 11, 2022)

Look at the code: FCK PTN

I suspect someone may have either put the actual transponder into another aircraft, or the ident of another aircraft has been altered (which I think is more likely).


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## GrauGeist (Mar 11, 2022)

A great idea for the next GB!

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 11, 2022)

That's awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree...but I suspect the Russian response would simply be to up the ante on the "shock and awe" they're imposing on the Ukrainian civilian population....if it's possible to be more indiscriminate than they already are.



The alternative is to let those assets get locked and loaded -- and there's no telling that they won't be used to attack Ukrainian civilians anyway. 

Given that Belarus is both allowing its territory to be used as a base for offensive action, _and_ that they reportedly have contributed forces to the Russian invasion, the Ukrainians would be within their rights to attack those planes.

What consequences that would bring quickly spin into "what-if" territory.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

To me it comes down to this…

1. Don’t strike at the aircraft in Belarus, and let those aircraft continue to bomb your cities and people.

Or

2. Strike at them and maybe Russia retaliates, but that retaliation cannot occur if the aircraft are smoking craters on the ground.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> To me it comes down to this…
> 
> 1. Don’t strike at the aircraft in Belarus, and let those aircraft continue to bomb your cities and people.
> 
> ...



I wouldn't describe it in such binary terms. Russia has other options for retaliation that haven't (yet...AFAIK) been employed in Ukraine. Examples include thermobaric weapons, chem/bio weapons and great use of long-range rockets/missiles. 

I entirely agree that the aircraft in Belarus are a legitimate target for Ukraine, and I'd love to see as many of them taken out as possible. However, doing so requires some pretty decent targeting capabilities that Ukraine may not possess. The alternative is air attack but I'd have to think that those airfields are well defended by the Russian strategic SAM belt.

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## Dimlee (Mar 11, 2022)

Near Makarov, Kyiv region. Not sure about the date, probably 3-4 days ago.
No survivors.

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## fubar57 (Mar 11, 2022)

Brutal and criminal

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I wouldn't describe it in such binary terms. Russia has other options for retaliation that haven't (yet...AFAIK) been employed in Ukraine. *Examples include thermobaric weapons, chem/bio weapons and great use of long-range rockets/missiles. *
> 
> I entirely agree that the aircraft in Belarus are a legitimate target for Ukraine, and I'd love to see as many of them taken out as possible. However, doing so requires some pretty decent targeting capabilities that Ukraine may not possess. The alternative is air attack but I'd have to think that those airfields are well defended by the Russian strategic SAM belt.



You are 100% correct, however, I would counter that he is going to destroy one way other so you might as well control what you can.

I don’t think there is an easy or right answer to any of this.

As for the second part. That is why I was questioning what capabilities they may have.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Near Makarov, Kyiv region. Not sure about the date, probably 3-4 days ago.
> No survivors.




My god…


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Brutal and criminal



How brave of them to engage that soft target personal vehicle. They must be proud of themselves. They shall be named Heroes of Russia.

***Hopefully everyone understands this post.***

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## GrauGeist (Mar 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Near Makarov, Kyiv region. Not sure about the date, probably 3-4 days ago.
> No survivors.



Bastards should be roasted alive in their AFV for that atrocity

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russia has other options for retaliation that haven't (yet...AFAIK) been employed in Ukraine. Examples include thermobaric weapons
> [...]



Just to say:

_The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it has used a thermobaric rocket launching weapon in its deadly attack on Ukraine, the United Kingdom (U.K.) announced Wednesday. 

Moscow “confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine,” the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense tweeted. 

The statement was accompanied by a video of the Soviet-era weapon, which launches rockets from atop a tank body that suck in surrounding oxygen, creating higher temperatures and more damaging explosions that last longer than conventional blasts. 

"The impact of the TOS-1A is devastating," the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense said in the video. "It can destroy infrastructure and cause significant damage to internal organs and flash burns, resulting in death to those exposed." 

The U.S. military, however, has still seen “no indications” that thermobaric weapons have been used, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters later Wednesday. 

Under international laws of armed conflict, thermobaric weapons are not illegal but can’t be used against military targets if their launch could also harm civilians. 

Footage from the Kremlin incursion, which is now at the two-week mark, has shown TOS-1A weapons deployed to Ukraine. _









Russia says it’s used thermobaric weapon system in Ukraine: UK


The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it has used a thermobaric rocket launching weapon in its deadly attack on Ukraine, the United Kingdom (U.K.) announced Wednesday. Moscow “confirmed the u…




thehill.com





If the Russians admit using it, I'd say that trumps any Pentagon opinion.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> A great idea for the next GB!
> 
> View attachment 660981


Stealing this!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

In a bid to lighten the mood a little...US intelligence has uncovered a Russian sleeper agent who had perfected an attack against Ukrainian tractors used to steal Russian military equipment:



With Mater on Putin's side, what else could go wrong?

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Near Makarov, Kyiv region. Not sure about the date, probably 3-4 days ago.
> No survivors.





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How brave of them to engage that soft target personal vehicle. They must be proud of themselves. They shall be named Heroes of Russia.





GrauGeist said:


> Bastards should be roasted alive in their AFV for that atrocity


Where's a javelin hurler when you need him? Or even his iNLAWS?

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Oh, boy the infighting is becoming intense...

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 11, 2022)

Somebody has to take the fall. It's like when our CIA director said it was a "slam dunk" that Saddam Hussien had WMD. Except nobody actually took the fall for that. 🤔

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Near Makarov, Kyiv region. Not sure about the date, probably 3-4 days ago.
> No survivors.



Despicable.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not backtracking on anything. I apologized to him in good faith because it was the right thing to do as it was not my intent. Its called a courtesy. I’m not an asshole. *Besides, my post was directed to him (not you). Hense, why it was the right thing (and adult thing) to do in the sake of friendship and healthy debate. So why you feel the need to stir the pot when there is no reason is beyond me as it has nothing to do with you.*
> 
> Nor did I “clearly imply support of the invasion.” I simply was stating in a sarcastic manner that we either endure some hardships or we let them get away with it.
> 
> ...



Sorry, I need to add something further to this, and rather than just edit the post I will quote it here. Especially since it obviously got my blood boiling. And I apologize for letting it upset me.

Apologizing to someone is not backtracking. It’s being an adult. There is no need to put fuel to the fire over something that:

A. Does not pertain to you.
B. Was a simple misunderstanding.

Sarcasm can be lost in translation when it is in written form. At no point was anyone being accused of “supporting the invasion.” The intent of the post was simply to say that there are sacrifices and hardships we will endure unless we let Putin have his way. The Basket misunderstood the intent of post and the sarcasm that came with it, hence my apology.

So unless you are in someones head, don’t tell them what they intended to say 
A
 Admiral Beez
.

And this is the last I will say on that. Enough thread hijacking BS (from both of us). I suggest we chalk this up to the missunderstanding it is and kindly move on as friends.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh, boy the infighting is becoming intense...




When you have state organs raiding each other in the middle of a war you instigated, you're kerfuckled.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are offering USD 1million for a plane and USD 500k for a helicopter to any pilot who defects (yeah, that's a thing once again I guess...)

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 11, 2022)

So, if I was a "Russian" pilot that "stole" a Polish Mig 29........................

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## tomo pauk (Mar 11, 2022)

Nasty...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Nasty...




I hope that the Ukrainian shooters were long gone by the time the Russian force responded. It certainly seemed to take the Russians a while to figure out what had happened.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

What is the Wagner Group, and is it in Ukraine?


Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has claimed that members of the Wagner Group — Russia’s shadowy private military — are taking up arms in the country, which is entering its third week of fighting Russian forces.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

Russian airstrikes hit western Ukraine; Biden calls for removal of normal trade relations with Russia: Live updates


Russia widens its military offensive with airstrikes in western Ukraine ahead of its requested meeting with the U.N. Security Council. Latest news.




www.yahoo.com


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## tomo pauk (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I hope that the Ukrainian shooters were long gone by the time the Russian force responded. It certainly seemed to take the Russians a while to figure out what had happened.



Not sure they escaped. Seems like the 1st undamaged tank we see fired and was hit in the same time, at about 53 seconds in the video.
It took just a few seconds (20?) for the Russians to scatter and fire back.

I'm not sure why the butchering of the video.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How brave of them to engage that soft target personal vehicle. They must be proud of themselves. They shall be named Heroes of Russia.
> 
> ***Hopefully everyone understands this post.***


Funny + agree = winner

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I hope that the Ukrainian shooters were long gone by the time the Russian force responded. It certainly seemed to take the Russians a while to figure out what had happened.



Ambushers gonna bush.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I hope that the Ukrainian shooters were long gone by the time the Russian force responded. It certainly seemed to take the Russians a while to figure out what had happened.


Looks like they didn't ever learn counter ambush drills. Their response guaranteed far more casualties than a disciplined force would have taken.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Is it true? I hope this is verified real. Sad how everything can be "photoshopped".


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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is it true? I hope this is verified real. Sad how everything can be "photoshopped".




Should be possible to find if it was in the papers.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 11, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Not sure they escaped. Seems like the 1st undamaged tank we see fired and was hit in the same time, at about 53 seconds in the video.
> It took just a few seconds (20?) for the Russians to scatter and fire back.
> 
> I'm not sure why the butchering of the video.



I'm wondering if the AT missile was fired remotely. I couldn't see anyone moving away from the firing location, and I wouldn't expect the shooters to hang around.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm wondering if the AT missile was fired remotely. I couldn't see anyone moving away from the firing location, and I wouldn't expect the shooters to hang around.



Ukrainian AT missiles can indeed be fired remotely. I saw video of one instance a few days back where the control center was approx. 6 miles from the site of combat.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm wondering if the AT missile was fired remotely. I couldn't see anyone moving away from the firing location, and I wouldn't expect the shooters to hang around.



There was/is such a thing as 'horizontal-action mines' back in the 1980s, where the 'mine' is actually an AT launcher that is controlled by mechanism that senses the vibrations, sound and - possibly, now in 21st century - by IR signature.

In the video, it seems like there was infantry weapons' fire on the column, too.

(on an unrelated note, we have the "Threadmarks" option now here)

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)



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## at6 (Mar 11, 2022)

Putin really does seem to be getting desperate. He's inviting Syrian sh!t pigs to join his invasion. If any get caught there, don't take them prisoner. Execute them where you find them.


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## at6 (Mar 11, 2022)

Scenes of innocent civilians being killed by Russians pain me and anger me more all of the time. When I see a picture of a dead Russian I feel no more compassion for the dead POS than I do for a dead rat.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 11, 2022)

Syrian shit-pigs, Russian rats ... wow.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 11, 2022)

at6 said:


> Putin really does seem to be getting desperate. He's inviting Syrian sh!t pigs to join his invasion. *If any get caught there, don't take them prisoner. Execute them where you find them.*



No, they should not do that. That would make them a war criminal too and no better than those they are fighting.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

Interesting thread.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 11, 2022)

And following _that_ rabbit hole lead to this bad crazy strangeness:

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 12, 2022)

at6 said:


> Putin really does seem to be getting desperate. He's inviting Syrian sh!t pigs to join his invasion. If any get caught there, don't take them prisoner. Execute them where you find them.


This does nothing positive for Syrian refugees trying to flee Ukraine for Poland.

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## Dimlee (Mar 12, 2022)

Just another update from Ukraine in English.
Combat statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, of course.


The Battle for Ukraine Rages On! DAY 16

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## Dimlee (Mar 12, 2022)

A glimmer of hope...
_"to expedite more sophisticated air-defense systems and other armaments into the war zone"_



https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/11/ukraine-weapons-transfers/

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## Zipper730 (Mar 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do not underestimate the power of mockery.


It's extremely powerful: In fact, often when ideas are censored, most people online start making memes that mock the guy who proposed the idea as well as those felt to be responsible for the censorship (i.e. if you can't attack the idea, attack the man).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> It's extremely powerful: In fact, often when ideas are censored, most people online start making memes that mock the guy who proposed the idea as well as those felt to be responsible for the censorship (i.e. if you can't attack the idea, attack the man).



We see it in stand-up comedy and Swiftian satire as well. SNL, when it's on, is another example.

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## Glider (Mar 12, 2022)

I can understand why people are angry as am I about the assault on Ukraine and the methods being used. Few can be in any doubt about the risk of Chemical weapons being used in the near future. Something I mentioned some time ago well before the press started talking about it. 

However and I admit this is a personal view. To call the Russian dead Rats and other insulting comments is for me going too far. There is a very good chance that those Russians didn't want to be in the Ukraine any more than the people wanted them to be on their land. You can use any description you like for Putin and the leadership who make the decisions and give the orders. 

I also recognise that there will be some of all ranks that commit atrocities but am confident that the vast majority of the troops on the ground would much rather go home.

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## Dimlee (Mar 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Ukrainian AT missiles can indeed be fired remotely. I saw video of one instance a few days back where the control center was approx. 6 miles from the site of combat.


Stugna-P with remote control. Recent video:

After several shots and at least two targets destroyed, they dismounted and moved to another position.
But 6 miles is too much for Stugna-P. That control centre coordinated artillery, most probably.

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## Glider (Mar 12, 2022)

Back to the more advanced weapons being considered to be given to the Ukraine forces. There seem to be serious discussions about supplying Starstreak AA missiles which are very effective, more so than the well regarded Stinger AA missile

They are both faster and have a longer range than the Stinger and cannot be fooled by infrared or radar/radio countermeasures. They are also effective against lightly armoured APC targets if the operator is pushed into a corner

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Stugna-P with remote control. Recent video:
> 
> After several shots and at least two targets destroyed, they dismounted and moved to another position.
> But 6 miles is too much for Stugna-P. That control centre coordinated artillery, most probably.




I must have the distance wrong. The video I saw was clearly a rocket-propelled missile.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

From that Twitter thread linked above:



> Igor Baikov 💙💛
> @Killa_ru
> ·
> Mar 10
> A new law forces you to exchange 80% of USD/EUR you got since Jan, 1st as salary to our currency. Now you can only cash out $10k in 6 months in banks, everything over gets converted to ruble w/ bad exchange rate.



These measures are going to make this war Putin's undoing if they last long. These steps represent the government's confiscation of private wealth.

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## Dimlee (Mar 12, 2022)

Another press conference of Zelensky for foreign media.
He mentioned, for the second time since the start of this invasion, KIA number on our side: about 1,300. (His first estimate on the 2nd day was between 100 and 200).
He said that Ukraine has traced all SAMs of Soviet types "up to the storage place" in several countries and is ready to pay for them and deliver them immediately.

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## Dimlee (Mar 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> To call the Russian dead Rats and other insulting comments is for me going too far. There is a very good chance that those Russians didn't want to be in the Ukraine any more than the people wanted them to be on their land.


There is also that linguistic "nuance" that is difficult to recognize in most languages besides Russian and Ukrainian. 
_Rossiysky (российский)_ means associated with Russia as a country, state, government. _Russkiy (русский)_ means associated with the language, ethnicity, culture, etc. But both words are translated as "Russian" in English.
Many Ukrainian soldiers are actually ethnic Russians (_русские_). And many invaders belong to different ethnicities, including Chechens, Tatars, Buryats, etc.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 12, 2022)



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## Zipper730 (Mar 12, 2022)

If this hasn't been covered, I remember hearing that the WHO asked the Ukraine to destroy biological agents they have in stock in some laboratories. Is this indeed correct?

This is from Reuters, and generally seems reliable








EXCLUSIVE WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy pathogens in health labs to prevent disease spread


The World Health Organization advised Ukraine to destroy high-threat pathogens housed in the country's public health laboratories to prevent "any potential spills" that would spread disease among the population, the agency told Reuters.




www.reuters.com





This doesn't seem as reliable, but there is a recording from 45 to 1:45 seconds from Victoria Nuland.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> From that Twitter thread linked above:
> 
> 
> 
> These measures are going to make this war Putin's undoing if they last long. These steps represent the government's confiscation of private wealth.


Are the Russians going to stand for Bolshevik programs?🤣

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## Jamoliva (Mar 12, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> If this hasn't been covered, I remember hearing that the WHO asked the Ukraine to destroy biological agents they have in stock in some laboratories. Is this indeed correct?
> 
> This is from Reuters, and generally seems reliable
> 
> ...



There are no BSL-3 or BSL-4 labs in Ukraine. And all the remaining labs are for biological research as in science. There are no biological weapon development labs. It's war propaganda. This is a useful article on the subject: Ukraine’s Bio-Lab Security Is Becoming an Issue | National Review

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 12, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> If this hasn't been covered, I remember hearing that the WHO asked the Ukraine to destroy biological agents they have in stock in some laboratories. Is this indeed correct?
> 
> This is from Reuters, and generally seems reliable
> 
> ...



Utter BS - this was put out several months ago and it's been fodder for QAnon and other right wing conspiracy whackos. Like any other sizeable country in Europe, it would not seem unlikely to me that Ukraine would have medical bio-labs. The spin was these labs were "CIA Sponsored." Really? Ask yourself - if I was in the CIA and I wanted to set up an off shore bio lab for military purposes, would I place it in a country that not only borders Russia, but had numerous internal political issues since 2014? The only thing we need to worry about is some young Russian conscript getting into one of these labs and damaging some of the equipment or drinking the blue stuff in the beaker!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> If this hasn't been covered, I remember hearing that the WHO asked the Ukraine to destroy biological agents they have in stock in some laboratories. Is this indeed correct?
> 
> This is from Reuters, and generally seems reliable
> 
> ...




Of course they'd want to destroy any pathogens in stock. That would keep bullets, bombs, and shells from scattering them a wide distance and causing an epidemic. That's especially important in wartime given that 1) in a war, malnutrition is a common side-effect, and 2) the medical sector is both overtaxed directly by casualties, and suffering shortages due to communications disruptions.

The fact that pathogens are being stored in situ is not surprising. It's pretty hard to develop a vaccine if you don't have the pathogen you're combatting on hand.

This is simply the application of another razor -- Occam's Razor, in this case.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 12, 2022)

The level of ignorance of most Americans about how the US exercises influence overseas really is quite startling (and, as an American, I can say that without bias).

A number of years ago, I helped conduct a training course at the George Marshall Center in Garmisch. When we first entered the base, I explained to my colleagues, who'd never been to Germany before, that this was a former artillery garrison prior to WW2. One of my colleagues then stated "I didn't know the US had forces in Germany before WW2." It took a lot of self control to patiently explain that this was a GERMAN artillery garrison that was built during Nazi military expansion in the 1930s. It seems many Americans believe the US was always a superpower and always had the level of influence that it enjoys today.

There's also a perception that the rest of the world just needs to do what the US says, regardless of whether the US has any skin in the game or even if it's in the best interest(s) of the other nation(s). That kind of thinking also drives the idea that, somehow, America "owns" other nations and can therefore have offshore capabilities like biological weapons facilities. Having worked both sides of the NOFORN divide, I can absolutely guarantee that the US does NOT offshore ANYTHING that it wants to keep as close-hold.

To get back onto the issue of biological labs...EVERY country has them. They do medical research and help develop treatments. The various studies into COVID and the evolution of the various treatments (not just the vaccines...that's just one part of the story) ALL took place in bio labs around the world, and those labs collaborated for the benefit of mankind. Just because a country has a biological lab with some nasty pathogens does NOT mean they have a biological weapons program. Bio weapons are a complex thing to build, maintain, deploy and use...with massive risk of unintended consequences.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 12, 2022)

Excellent excercise of plausible deniability.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 12, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Excellent excercise of plausible deniability.



Glad to see the men in dark coats didn't arrest you.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 12, 2022)

I just told them _"these are not the 'droids you are looking for." _
Works every time.

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## GTX (Mar 12, 2022)

Ukrainian Supreme Court Judge Earns Fierce Nickname After Leaving Bench For Battle Against Russia - Above the Law


The enemy is dismissed -- with prejudice.




abovethelaw.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> If too political please delete:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Let’s try and avoid the political party stuff. Stick to the war in Ukraine. Many of us are getting very close to crossing a line (me included).

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just another update from Ukraine in English.
> Combat statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, of course.
> 
> 
> The Battle for Ukraine Rages On! DAY 16


I do wish both sides would stop the Nazi labelling. If we want the Russian people to rise up it doesn’t help to categorize them all as Nazis.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 12, 2022)

The latest alleged FSB letter after the raid by the Putin's cops:


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## wlewisiii (Mar 12, 2022)

I'm more comfortable with reports from this source:

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## Capt. Vick (Mar 12, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...you're right. Getting ahead of myself. DOH!!!!


Well, Putin does consider Ukraine to be part of Mordor so you were kind of right. Way more correct than I was.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

I think following this advice would be good for helping this thread stay alive.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let’s try and avoid the political party stuff. Stick to the war in Ukraine. Many of us are getting very close to crossing a line (me included).



Don't get me wrong, I have clear and solid political views, but this thread is much more valuable as a resource than it is for pushing one's own political views. Don't let partisan politics kill it for all of us, eh?

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 12, 2022)

Dude, a-fricken-men!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 12, 2022)

This is what can still give me hope.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 12, 2022)

Tears, man.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This is what can still give me hope.




"Hero" is the right word. I have no doubt those children will remember him and carry the lesson forward.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think following this advice would be good for helping this thread stay alive.
> 
> 
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I have clear and solid political views, but this thread is much more valuable as a resource than it is for pushing one's own political views. Don't let partisan politics kill it for all of us, eh?



Preach!

It’s why we had to ban political talk. It was only a matter of time before the partisan people started.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Preach!
> 
> It’s why we had to ban political talk. It was only a matter of time before the partisan people started.



Right. I have another forum I post at where politics is no-holds-barred, and it descends into shitstorms as often as not, because it relies upon the good nature of people, and we know what a thin reed that is. That's okay; I post my political stuff there because they allow it and I do my rough-and-tumble there.

Here in this thread, I'm getting good info from people who actually know how militaries operate, and to be honest I don't care what one's views are if one's facts are good. If we keep it to facts It should be -- as it has already been -- a good roll. I want to know what's happening as it unfolds, and this thread has been a good resource for finding original sources for news from on the ground there.

I prefer that to continue because the information here is vital. There's an entire world outside of politics, be it American or otherwise, but I've got places I'll go for that.

Hope that's preachy enough!

Someone hit my STFU button already.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2022)

I have removed all of the non-Ukraine related political posts (mine included)

1. They have nothing to do with the topic.
2. They are just turning into the typical sheepish and ignorant left vs. right BS.
3. It really is ruining an otherwise informative thread.

Let me please remind everyone (myself included), this forum still has a politics rule (yes more to follow). While we are easing the ban on political discussion, it must remain civil. Any political discussion that is irrelevant to the topic, insulting to other members of the forum, or is the typical sheeple right vs. left bashing will not be tolerated (staff/mods included). There are plenty of other places you can go to for that. Lets not destroy our place here with that ignorant drivel.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2022)

Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine | Russia | The Guardian


Up to 16,000 volunteers to be paid $3,000 a month – a sum up to 50 times a Syrian soldier’s monthly salary




amp.theguardian.com

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## fubar57 (Mar 12, 2022)

Fodder to save the Russian soldier

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 12, 2022)

Assad is probably happy to have soldiers who are looking for a fight being outside of Syria. It's a win-win between him and Putin.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 12, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Fodder to save the Russian soldier



Most likely

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 12, 2022)

Plus, they won't be squeemish about killing people who look like them.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 12, 2022)

Who's going to pay them?

Syria's economy is a shambles from their civil war and Russia, well, $3,000 Rubles is what, about a buck fifty right now?

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## WARSPITER (Mar 13, 2022)

The Syrian troop question raises a couple of other questions in itself;

Why does one of the worlds most powerful military forces need to start outsourcing ?

Are Russians at home really going to keep believing the broadcasts about how good their own army is ?

Finally, what does this say about the fighting spirit of troops already engaged and how many losses have they really suffered ?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2022)

It is rather odd.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

It seems to me a rather desperate move.

Where's the mighty Russian Army? You know, the one that could "crush" NATO (not my words).
This was supposed to be a military that could counter any and all NATO efforts and the finest and newest American equipment.
And a little nation stops this grand war machine dead in it's tracks to the point where it's imperious leader is calling for mercinaries to help?

Pathetic...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 13, 2022)

Professional military, amateur generals.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It seems to me a rather desperate move.
> 
> Where's the mighty Russian Army? You know, the one that could "crush" NATO (not my words).
> This was supposed to be a military that could counter any and all NATO efforts and the finest and newest American equipment.
> ...


I know. Add it to list of the weirdness of this war. It seems a very antiquated way of fighting. Unless Putin is holding forces back and he's looking for more cannon-, or javelin-, fodder to counter NATO's plan of turning Ukraine into a meat grinder for the Russian army.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Professional military, amateur generals.


Define "professional".

Very few of Russia's Army personnel have done anything more than occasional exercises in the past two decades.

Russia's excursions into war zones have been mostly done by social elites for "street cred".

On the other side of the fence, the U.S. and a large number of it's Allies are hard combat tested veterans, who have been training the Ukraine military for years.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I know. Add it to list of the weirdness of this war. It seems a very antiquated way of fighting. Unless Putin is holding forces back and he's looking for more cannon-, or javelin-, fodder to counter NATO's plan of turning Ukraine into a meat grinder for the Russian army.


I thought Russia's action early on was a ruse, but in light of the recent sacking of the FSB by Putin's "special police" and a series of high ranking Generals being forced to the front (whom several have been killed), it's becoming clear that the plan of subversion and force is not working as his Imperial majesty planned.

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

One aspect that annoys me is how the war is being reported from a day to day aspect. If the Russians are losing then why are they still moving forward?

Wars are won by the force that is bigger and more powerful. If the Russians are willing to take the losses and willing to kill civilians and willing to become what it takes to do that then final victory will be inevitable.

The only things that can stop this is direct NATO intervention or regime change in Moscow. 

Maybe the Ukrainians will force Russia into some form of defeat which makes further operations untenable.
Maybe the collapse of the Russian economy means soldiers won't be paid so they mutiny.
Maybe a general Russian population uprising will mean the end for military operation in Ukraine.

Or maybe full scale nuclear war is on the cards. Which obviously is worst case but certainly a possible outcome.

The only truly positive outcome is regime change in Moscow. A new guy appears who calls for immediate ceasefire and pull out of troops out of Ukraine and then all sanctions are lifted.

The most obvious outcome is Russia wins and Ukraine or what's left of it becomes a Russian slave state.

Which is why the actions of Putin baffles me. How is this the best case scenario? Putin could have been sipping Margheritas on his yacht in the sun somewhere and yet somehow full scale nuclear war is a better option?

When the world goes mad then mad things happen.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The latest alleged FSB letter after the raid by the Putin's cops:



These are a fasinating read. What’s the background and accuracy of these letters?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Define "professional".
> 
> Very few of Russia's Army personnel have done anything more than occasional exercises in the past two decades.
> 
> ...


I imagine many potential advesaries, including NATO, the neutral Finns, Japan as well as China are surprised at the poor results and remarkably terrible tactics, equipment and preparation of the Russian armed forces. If I’m China I might be looking hungrily at the border and considering to revisit the 2005 border dispute treaty.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The most obvious outcome is Russia wins and Ukraine or what's left of it becomes a Russian slave state.


That outcome I think is already inviable. There is no way Rusia could win now. The invasion is widely off the plan, the ukrainian resistance is fiercer than expected and has united (mostly) the people around its president and the independence idea.

Hardly anyone un Ukrainia or any where in the world could think that the demilitarization of Ukrainia is a good idea.

It has pushed Finland and Sweden nearer to NATO, united NATO and reinforced its purpose and launched a rearmament plan across it, specially in Germany.

It had pushed the EU to cut the energy link with Rusia at light speed. Of course it won't be cheap for the EU but do Rusia have the capability to switch the customers? It could sell gas&oil at a discount to different countries but do Rusia have the infraestructure to do that? Or the money to build it?

China could rise to lend a hand but it won't be free and could turn Rusia to a vassal state of China as someone point out (sorry, don't remember who).

The myth of the russian army might lies shattered in an ukrainian ditch and can't be reborn (at least for a long time) so any new menace of the use of force against any country would be unbelivable.

Rusia would we a pariah state as long as uncle Vlad is in power.

We could only wait that Putin won't stay in power much longer and that when the end comes the West don't act like in the end of the Cold War but like at the end of WW2, with some kind of Marshall Plan to rebuild Rusia and bring it out of the darkness once and for all.

PS: Edited for some typos.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2022)

Zelenskyy says Ukraine still in daily talks with Russia; US journalist killed by Russian gunfire: March 13 recap


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he will continue negotiating with Russia despite escalated attacks.




www.yahoo.com

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Good points.


I fear you are incorrect my Spanish amigo.

The Russian plan has not claimed victory.....yet. The Ukrainian resistance is holding....at the moment. Time will tell us on this one.

The word win perhaps was incorrect. Perhaps achieve military goals is a better phrase.

As advised before, I believe Russia, certainly economically has taken such a high dive that it clearly finished as a modern economy. The decline is going to be biblical.

Another issue is that Russia can be turned into a democratic, peace and love country. 2 problems there is corruption is so rampant that it would be a miracle and Russia has no democratic tradition. It has always be controlled. The big bad wolf who controls the other wolves so to speak.

To be a Russian citizen today is certainly not enviable.

The main fear is that Russia simply raises the bar and becomes more unhinged as the victory in Ukraine falters. Use of chemical warfare against Kyiv is certainly an aspect. If the use of Chemical weapons seems to offer a win then I believe they would use them.

The only issue is Russia still has neutral powers or friends that may be outraged by this.

If we are still alive this time next year, then we will have greater clarity than we do now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine many potential advesaries, including NATO, the neutral Finns, Japan as well as China are surprised at the poor results and remarkably terrible tactics, equipment and preparation of the Russian armed forces. If I’m China I might be looking hungrily at the border and considering to revisit the 2005 border dispute treaty.



Given that they've got the Russian economy by the short hairs, I doubt Putin could do anything but acquiesce without a fight.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course they'd want to destroy any pathogens in stock. That would keep bullets, bombs, and shells from scattering them a wide distance and causing an epidemic. That's especially important in wartime given that 1) in a war, malnutrition is a common side-effect, and 2) the medical sector is both overtaxed directly by casualties, and suffering shortages due to communications disruptions.
> 
> The fact that pathogens are being stored in situ is not surprising. It's pretty hard to develop a vaccine if you don't have the pathogen you're combatting on hand.


Makes sense. Still, I hope they did destroy the stocks -- it isn't worth keeping around under such conditions.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Define "professional".
> 
> Very few of Russia's Army personnel have done anything more than occasional exercises in the past two decades.
> 
> ...


I was trying to be nice to the Russian soldiery. They do have better military units than the ones used in Ukraine. Or so I had believed. The Supreme General Staff (or whatever they call it) seems to demonstrate political dependability does not translate to strategic competence.

It's getting harder and harder not to underestimate the enemy but I'm trying!

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## JDCAVE (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> One aspect that annoys me is how the war is being reported from a day to day aspect. If the Russians are losing then why are they still moving forward?
> 
> Wars are won by the force that is bigger and more powerful. If the Russians are willing to take the losses and willing to kill civilians and willing to become what it takes to do that then final victory will be inevitable...


During WW2, (and this a WW2 forum) Stalin was all too willing to sacrifice both his soliers and people for victory. Millions of Soviets died as a result. Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?

He will do whatever it takes…

Jim

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## WARSPITER (Mar 13, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> During WW2, (and this a WW2 forum) Stalin was all too willing to sacrifice both his soliers and people for victory. Millions of Soviets died as a result. Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?
> 
> He will do whatever it takes…
> 
> Jim


Rasputin ? Bare chested rather than the cassock of course.

Has always seemed odd now that you mention the name that the 'bodies' lying in state are still being preserved to be viewed at over one hundred thousand dollars
a year (I think that is right). Seems that there must still be people in the hierarchy who revere certain of those departed.

Worth noting that Kruschev is buried in an unmarked grave apparently - due to failure over the Cuban missile gambit ? 
It may be that some mindsets never change.

Will Vlad be revered or end up in an unmarked plot ?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Regarding Russian troop-quality:




_
The early announcement of the 2022 spring draft is unlikely to increase Russian combat power in Ukraine in the near term.

Recent Russian efforts to create a Western-style reserve force are unlikely to materially impact combat operations in Ukraine.

As Russia exhausts its high-readiness units staffed with contract soldiers, the quality of reinforcements is likely to be much lower than the units first committed to the invasion.
_
_The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains reliant on conscripts, both for its active-duty force and for its reserve forces in the event of general mobilization.[1] Most combat units must be filled out by conscripts or mobilized reservists in order to be combat-capable. Contract soldiers are concentrated in the cadre and elite units, especially the airborne units.

The cadre-and-reserve units of the Russian Armed Forces are maintained at a low readiness with a limited number of professional staff and conscripts, with the expectation that they would be staffed with reservists in the event of mobilization.[2] The Russians have already used many cadre-and-reserve units in Ukraine, and they have not performed well against the Ukrainians, with some units suffering heavy losses. Russia does not likely have a large reserve of highly skilled contract units remaining, although there are probably some uncommitted forces.

[...]

The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat).

[...]

Some of the fall 2021 conscripts are likely already serving in units fighting in Ukraine. The rapid employment of relatively untrained reservists is unlikely to materially increase Russia's combat power in Ukraine.

[...]

According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training.[13]

[...]

Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power._






Institute for the Study of War


The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains




www.understandingwar.org





... and:

_ The Wall Street Journal reports Russia is recruiting Syrians who are “skilled in urban combat” to help the army capture Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, Russia is also deploying units of its regional paramilitary internal security forces known as Rosgvardia, including ones controlled by Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov. While these forces will help bolster Russia’s numbers, experts are skeptical it will combat Moscow’s manpower issue. “Bringing Syrians into Ukraine is like bringing Martians to fight on the moon,” Middle East Institute Syria expert Charles Lister told the Journal, while Kagan told Forbes he “doesn’t think [their help is] going to be enough” and warned against just “cobbling together” different groups. “That starts to be just a collection of individual groups of people who are running around with weapons trying to do stuff” rather than an “effective military force,” Kagan said._









Russia’s Soldier Shortage: Here’s Why It’s Recruiting Foreign Fighters


Experts say Russia doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Ukraine — and recruiting Syrians and Chechen paramilitaries is unlikely to help.




www.forbes.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Will Vlad be revered or end up in an unmarked plot ?



My money's on _a vat of acid to destroy the evidence_.


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## swampyankee (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> From that Twitter thread linked above:
> 
> 
> 
> These measures are going to make this war Putin's undoing if they last long. These steps represent the government's confiscation of private wealth.


Not unprecedented--even for the czarist


JDCAVE said:


> During WW2, (and this a WW2 forum) Stalin was all too willing to sacrifice both his soliers and people for victory. Millions of Soviets died as a result. Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?
> 
> He will do whatever it takes…
> 
> Jim


Listening to Mike Duncan's Revolutions podcast, one gets the feeling Russia has not been well-served by any ideologies. It also seems the Whites lost more because, while the Bolsheviks' treatment of the peasants was quite bad, that of the Whites was both equally bad and promised a return to even worse conditions than they had before the reforms between 1905 and October 1917.

Alas, Putin could as easily be following in the footsteps of many leaders of armed revolution or counter-revolution.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

Interesting Chinese analysis. Considering that they are even more tightly controlled on these subjects than the Russians, one can presume that this is a trial balloon with the knowledge of, if not explicit approval of, Xi Jinping.

**

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 13, 2022)

The big fear, if Russia's offensive runs out of steam, and foreign fighters and paramilitary forces are being used to bolster troop strength, is the likelihood that the conflict will devolve into anarchy and banditry. With no conclusion and endless suffering for the Ukrainian people.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

President Zelensky being astonishing once again. Outdoors with the Russian out for his head...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Not unprecedented--even for the czarist



Of course not. They seemed to have had a problem hanging onto power too.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> President Zelensky being astonishing once again. Outdoors with the Russian out for his head...




That is precisely how one leads: from the goddamned front.

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## fubar57 (Mar 13, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?
> 
> He will do whatever it takes…
> 
> Jim


I was thinking about this last night. My personal thought only but he seems to be emulating Hitler


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## JDCAVE (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Interesting Chinese analysis. Considering that they are even more tightly controlled on these subjects than the Russians, one can presume that this is a trial balloon with the knowledge of, if not explicit approval of, Xi Jinping.
> 
> **



Read while you still can, while it is still online. Very interesting!

Jim

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Given President Xi's support heretofore of Putin's invasion, and Xi's supporting Russian propaganda ploys even a day or two ago, I'd be surprised if that article has Xi's approval.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Given President Xi's support heretofore of Putin's invasion, and Xi's supporting Russian propaganda ploys even a day or two ago, I'd be surprised if that article has Xi's approval.


The phrase you're looking for is "Trial Balloon". The Chinese government is very fond of exploring policy changes this way.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> President Zelensky being astonishing once again. Outdoors with the Russian out for his head...



Zelensky deserves a medal himself.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Given President Xi's support heretofore of Putin's invasion, and Xi's supporting Russian propaganda ploys even a day or two ago, I'd be surprised if that article has Xi's approval.


Be ready to be surprised. The article clearly advocated supporting Putin only as long as he was successful. In Chinese intellectual history it was normal for mandarin scholars to advise emperors, and Xi's apparent tacit approval of this could be a way of projecting an image of gravitas and wisdom ahead of an impending policy change.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Zelensky deserves a medal himself.


It's a pity, the dude is never going to get another comic gig after this.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> It's a pity, the dude is never going to get another comic gig after this.


Hey, he's a Renaissance Man. After this is over he'll have the bully pulpit of the world from which to poke fun at authoritarianism wherever it tries to hide.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

Oooh, serious shade...

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## Zipper730 (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That is precisely how one leads: from the goddamned front.


That's the right way.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The phrase you're looking for is "Trial Balloon". The Chinese government is very fond of exploring policy changes this way.



I know what a trial balloon is, but I wonder if the Chinese really think this invasion can be used for what is essentially a _rapprochement_ with America. 

If they _do_ think so, I think there's some unreasonable optimism in the higher levels of their government, whoever approved this for publication; and if they _don't_ think so, Professor Hu's in for some tough times.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> During WW2, (and this a WW2 forum) Stalin was all too willing to sacrifice both his soliers and people for victory. Millions of Soviets died as a result. Which Soviet Leader do you think Putin admires most and wishes to emulate?
> 
> He will do whatever it takes…
> 
> Jim


Didn't Catherine the Great take Crimea and launch a number of wars to take portions of Ukraine? Russia was always an expansionist empire. The country straddles two continents (three at one point - remember the US bought Alaska from Russia)) and goes from Poland to the Pacific for a reason. Also, there are plenty examples of expansionist leaders/nations in world history, just because someone's expansionist it doesn't make them Hitler. He was also not the first to employ genocidal policies to achieve his objectives, he just took it to a whole other level.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Interesting Chinese analysis. Considering that they are even more tightly controlled on these subjects than the Russians, one can presume that this is a trial balloon with the knowledge of, if not explicit approval of, Xi Jinping.
> 
> **



Seems like China is paving the way to ditch Putin.

Very interesting and obviously it has to have some kind of oficial support to be published.

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## JDCAVE (Mar 13, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Didn't Catherine the Great take Crimea and launch a number of wars to take portions of Ukraine? Russia was always an expansionist empire. The country straddles two continents (three at one point - remember the US bought Alaska from Russia)) and goes from Poland to the Pacific for a reason. Also, there are plenty examples of expansionist leaders/nations in world history, just because someone's expansionist it doesn't make them Hitler. He was also not the first to employ genocidal policies to achieve his objectives, he just took it to a whole other level.


I never said anything about Hitler. Only that I thought that of all the Soviet leaders Putin most admired Stalin. I could have rephrased _likely_ most admired Stalin. I could be wrong. Perhaps he doesn’t identify himself with Stalin. 

…and you are correct. Russia has always been expansionist. However, when one reviews the history of the 20th century, the state was referred to as the Soviet Union, not Russia.

Jim

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## GTX (Mar 13, 2022)

https://www.news.com.au/world/absurd-myth-about-vladimir-putin-finally-shattered-amid-ukraine-invasion/news-story/e9e350ca7035286e07361400cf0b9a1e

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> I fear you are incorrect my Spanish amigo.
> 
> The Russian plan has not claimed victory.....yet. The Ukrainian resistance is holding....at the moment. Time will tell us on this one.
> 
> The word win perhaps was incorrect. Perhaps achieve military goals is a better phrase.



My friend 

 The Basket
, I don´t claim that Rusia has achived victory neither that they has claimed it. My thought is that there is no way that they could achive it in any way now.

It doesn´t matter if Rusia claim victory tomorrow or in two months or in two years. Nobody would belive it, neither the upper officials in Rusia themselves and, certainly, not the soldiers maimed or injured or the relatives and loved of the fallen.

If ukraine resistance colapses tomorrow (unlikely) they will be remembered for a long time and will serve as a lighthouse for all the independece willing ukrainians for generations.

Neither the NATO or the EU countries or the neutrals like Finland or Sweden or even other neighbors of Russia will start doing business as usual the day after and will be very wary of any russian move and will have little fear of a russian army that failed so badly (to the point of recluting mercenaries from Siria) to fight a war. An army highly depleted and incapable of rebuilding due to the sanctions.

So Russia could achive military goals but in no way political goals, so there is no path to victory for Russian now:

- The baltic countries, the former Warsaw Pact countries, the nordic buffers will not renunce to leave NATO or to join it, at least for some generations.
- What ever is left of Ukraine won´t acept a demilitarized condition and a puppet goverment will face an battle hardened insurgence with foreing support or local troops of low moral.



The Basket said:


> As advised before, I believe Russia, certainly economically has taken such a high dive that it clearly finished as a modern economy. The decline is going to be biblical.
> 
> Another issue is that Russia can be turned into a democratic, peace and love country. 2 problems there is corruption is so rampant that it would be a miracle and Russia has no democratic tradition. It has always be controlled. The big bad wolf who controls the other wolves so to speak.



That is the reason I think that the West, and China, should scramble to aid Rusia as early and as fast as it could be posible, that is, when uncle Vlad is under house arrest, with a Hitlerian like end or a Gadaffi of Ceaucescu one. Of course this could only be achived by an inside plot. When the end come we should be ready to aid the russian people due to humanitarian reasons and also to prevent a Putin 2.0 in the decades after.



The Basket said:


> Use of chemical warfare against Kyiv is certainly an aspect. If the use of Chemical weapons seems to offer a win then I believe they would use them.
> 
> The only issue is Russia still has neutral powers or friends that may be outraged by this.
> 
> If we are still alive this time next year, then we will have greater clarity than we do now.



That (or the nukes) would be pretty much of a red line for all the neutrals even China, as the article shared by 

 wlewisiii
shows.

Hope the next year we all be around!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Hardly anyone un Ukrainia or any where in the world could think that the demilitarization of Ukrainia is a good idea. It has pushed Finland and Sweden nearer to NATO, united NATO and reinforced its purpose and launched a rearmament plan across it, specially in Germany. It had pushed the EU to cut the energy link with Rusia at light speed. China could rise to lend a hand but it won't be free and could turn Rusia to a vassal state of China as someone point out (sorry, don't remember who).


Indeed, I can’t imagine anything except a Will Smithesque Independence Day alien invasion doing more to unite so much of the earth behind one cause.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> I know what a trial balloon is, but I wonder if the Chinese really think this invasion can be used for what is essentially a _rapprochement_ with America.


I think the Iranians and especially the Venezuelas are hoping so.



Will war in Ukraine thaw US-Venezuela relations?

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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I never said anything about Hitler. Only that I thought that of all the Soviet leaders Putin most admired Stalin. I could have rephrased _likely_ most admired Stalin. I could be wrong. Perhaps he doesn’t identify himself with Stalin.
> 
> …and you are correct. Russia has always been expansionist. However, when one reviews the history of the 20th century, the state was referred to as the Soviet Union, not Russia.
> 
> Jim


I know you did not mention Hitler, it was merely an add-on reference to another post and the repeated analogy that I keep seeing made in places. Also, you may very well be right that Putin identifies with or most admires Stalin. The purpose of my post was simply to point out that Putin was not the only expansionist leader in the country's history. And yes, while common usage equated the Soviet Union and Russia, they, technically, were not the same. The USSR, or more accurately, the CCCP, was the name given to the collection of nations and areas that the Russian Soviet Republic, which was a part the Soviet Union, exerted control over following the Bolshevik Revolution until its collapse in 1991.

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

My point is two fold.

From a pure action point of view, Russia has invaded Ukraine to achieve 'something'. 

Both political and military. Now, in my view if the goal was the destruction of Ukraine as a viable state then Russia has succeeded. Ukraine economy or infrastructure or territorial integrity or flight of refugees all point to Ukraine failing. On Social media, we have the idea of Ukraine winning which i considered is very wrong because my points stated earlier show that Ukraine is in terrible trouble.

End of the day, Russian forces are within a few miles of Kyiv. This is hardly a military defeat for Russia. So for all the tanks blown up and Hinds shot down, Russia is achieving military and political aims in Ukraine. Maybe not without cost or without consequences...but purely talking about what going on in Ukraine and ignoring the wider picture.

So in my view, Russia can achieve political and military success in Ukraine simply by turning Ukraine into rubble. Which will probably happen. Then Ukraine becomes a disaster zone and Russia can be king of the dirt.

Which was probably the whole point of this. Turn Ukraine from a viable threat into a ruin. 

Putin don't seem to care and his minions are seemingly willing to follow him to the end. So I have no idea where this ends or how it ends but....to be honest....my money is very bad unpleasant things are in our future. 

Every disaster is on the table and it's going to be which level of disaster is acceptable. Full on disintegration of the Ukrainian state or nuclear war?

Economic disintegration or nuclear disintegration?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed, I can’t imagine anything except a Will Smithesque Independence Day alien invasion doing more to unite so much of the earth behind one cause.
> 
> I think the Iranians and especially the Venezuelas are hoping so.
> 
> ...


Thought provoking article. Thanks for the link.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> My point is two fold.
> 
> From a pure action point of view, Russia has invaded Ukraine to achieve 'something'.
> 
> ...


If Putin does turn Ukraine into a rubble filled wasteland, it would achieve a buffer state of sorts. Not a very good one. Ain’t disagreeing with you. I’m betting with you. 
Full disclosure: I never win when I gamble.😉


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> My point is two fold.
> 
> From a pure action point of view, Russia has invaded Ukraine to achieve 'something'.
> 
> ...


Rusia could turn Ukrainia in to rubble and make it an unviable state, which is a Putin´s goal, but the price would be too high to the point that Russia itself could be an unviable state.

And that is only one goal.

What about the rest that Putin had made public? This only reinforces NATO and bring closer the neutral european countries and other non european countries (but neighbors of Russia) to the West.

Not a very clever move. It looks like the beginning of the end for Putin, or so I hope.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> My point is two fold.
> 
> From a pure action point of view, Russia has invaded Ukraine to achieve 'something'.
> 
> ...


I agree Ukraine's near future looks depressing. For fear of a nuclear war, NATO has essentially conceded Ukraine to Putin. Sure, were supplying them with weapons, but I feel we're really laying the groundwork for an insurgency against occupation and/or a puppet government. I believe that there are two main problems with this situation. One, how long is this insurgency going to be and how much more devastation will it cause? Secondly, this insurgency will be fierce and I suspect vengeful. Right now, the Ukrainians have the moral high ground, but insurgencies are difficult to control, and guerillas cannot take to many prisoners. I am afraid at some point it will devolve into atrocity v. atrocity. Given current conditions most people might be alright with those types of acts committed against Russian troops and their mercenaries, but it is still ugly.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Seems like China is paving the way to ditch Putin.
> 
> Very interesting and obviously it has to have some kind of oficial support to be published.


Thank you for posting that, it was very thought provoking and informative.

_"Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment."_

If I was China I would publicly denounce the invasion, announce a severing of China-Russia relations, join the sanctions and begin shipments of weapons to Ukraine, including the H-12 MANPATS. That’ll shock the hell out of the US.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thank you for posting that, it was very thought provoking and informative.


The credit should go to 

 wlewisiii
, the original póster.

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

I personally think Putin is very safe and secure in his position.

The ones who could oppose him will probably be on the next pimpmobile outta there. Or risk the gulags.

Putin is top of the tree and sitting pretty and then decides to chop the tree down. Why would you do that? 

Burning down his own house. This is what annoys me. I cannot get my brain around it and that what annoys me. I cannot imagine any scenario where Russia is better off. 

Maybe he is doing the Batman quote and wants to see the world burn. I dunno.

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## JDCAVE (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Putin is top of the tree and sitting pretty and then decides to chop the tree down. Why would you do that?
> 
> Burning down his own house. This is what annoys me. I cannot get my brain around it…


No. Neither can I. Makes no sense. 

Jim


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Iranians and especially the Venezuelas are hoping so.
> 
> 
> 
> Will war in Ukraine thaw US-Venezuela relations?



I heard a report on BBC about this. While Maduro is talking up the prospect, the Venezuelans interviewed for the report seem roughly split on whether this is good, or whether it's two "hypocritical" nations (word from an interviewee) making a deal of convenience.

I think it's the latter myself, but to be fair, that's lots of diplomacy and international relations: working to steer events into course with one's national interests.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hey, he's a Renaissance Man. After this is over he'll have the bully pulpit of the world from which to poke fun at authoritarianism wherever it tries to hide.



And who better than a comedian to do a takedown on political bullshit?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> End of the day, Russian forces are within a few miles of Kyiv. This is hardly a military defeat for Russia. So for all the tanks blown up and Hinds shot down, Russia is achieving military and political aims in Ukraine. Maybe not without cost or without consequences...but purely talking about what going on in Ukraine and ignoring the wider picture.



The term that came to my mind while reading your post was in the form of a _Jeopardy_ question: "Alex, what is a Pyrrhic victory?'"

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The term that came to my mind while reading your post was in the form of a _Jeopardy_ question: "Alex, what is a Pyrrhic victory?'"


Can't spell Pyrrhic Victory without Victory.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> I personally think Putin is very safe and secure in his position.
> 
> The ones who could oppose him will probably be on the next pimpmobile outta there. Or risk the gulags.
> 
> ...


I don't think he wants to burn down the world because it doesn't benefit him or his legacy. I don't think he is actually a madman. He severely overestimated his forces abilities and grossly underestimated the Ukrainians. Also, he can't pull out now. This is not a new idea, many on this forum have expressed the same views. I think he also underestimated NATO. He probably thought since Europe was so energy dependent upon Russia that they would fuss and condemn, but not do much else, and if Europe did not really care, he figured the US would not get involved. He was probably egged by XI as well.

I have this nagging feeling though, if the invasion had already ended with a blitzkrieg-like victory that crushed Ukraine's ability to resist, with a puppet-government installed in Kyiv, and China's backing, the world's reaction and actions would be different.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Can't spell Pyrrhic Victory without Victory.



Right, but when victory costs more than defeat, what has been accomplished?

I have no doubt that the Russians can crush the Ukrainian regulars with the application of mass firepower.

The Ukrainians don't have to win. They only have to not lose. Check out Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan to see how a weaker power can send a Great Power packing. Couple that with the current sanctions on Russia and the losses they're suffering currently to see how while they may actually conquer Ukraine, it might be a meal that gives them some terrible indigestion.

Put an insurgency on after this Russian "victory" and let it unspool for a couple of years and we'll see who wins.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I have this nagging feeling though, if the invasion had already ended with a blitzkrieg-like victory that crushed Ukraine's ability to resist, with a puppet-government installed in Kyiv, and China's backing, the world's reaction and actions would be different.



Absolutely. It's only been the staunch Ukrainian defense that has galvanized the world into action.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Can't spell Pyrrhic Victory without Victory.


Yeah, but consider King Pyrrus' comment after his second victory (at the battle of Asculum):
"If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined."

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 13, 2022)

Re: Thump

I agree. Had Zelenski accepted that free ride to exile, the whole storyline changes.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I heard a report on BBC about this. While Maduro is talking up the prospect, the Venezuelans interviewed for the report seem roughly split on whether this is good, or whether it's two "hypocritical" nations (word from an interviewee) making a deal of convenience.


I think all international relations are by some degree deals of convenience. Juan Guaidó has to be feeling like yesterday’s news.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think all international relations are by some degree deals of convenience. Juan Guaidó has to be feeling like yesterday’s news.



Right, it's the old conundrum of "do men make history, or does history make men?"

Guaidó came close to exemplifying the former, but events have now left him behind.

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

It's up to Vladimir Vladimirovich who decides who wins and who loses.

As the quote goes...some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.

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## The Basket (Mar 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Yeah, but consider King Pyrrus' comment after his second victory (at the battle of Asculum):
> "If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined."


I will now wiki this guy.

I like his wit.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

A good video explaining the Javelin ATGM

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## Dimlee (Mar 13, 2022)

One of the attempts to compare verified equipment losses. In Russian.








Соотношение потерь военной техники на 13 марта


Подробный список уничтоженной и захваченной техники обеих сторон можно увидеть здесь . Этот список постоянно обновляется по мере появления дополнительных материалов. В этот список включены только та военная техника, о которой имеются фото- и видеоматериалы. Таким образом, количество уничтоженной…




aillarionov.livejournal.com




Titles of the charts, top-down:

All military equipment losses, per date. (Blue - RF, Orange - Ukraine).
Ratio (RF to Ukraine), tanks.
Ratio, other armoured vehicles (BMP, BTR, BMD)
Ratio, artillery systems of all types
Ratio, military cars and trucks
Ratio, fixed-wing aircraft
Ratio, helicopters

Only destroyed and captured units are included, only those of which photo or video evidence is available.
Not included: abandoned equipment of all kinds, hand arms, civilian equipment, trailers.

Based on the data collected here:








Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine







www.oryxspioenkop.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> One of the attempts to compare verified equipment losses. In Russian.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which category of Russian tank losses are attributed to the Ukrainian Farm Tractor regiment?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> One of the attempts to compare verified equipment losses. In Russian.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Imagine being a Russian tank salesman. Who the heck is going to buy a fleet of T-72, T-80 or T-90 when/if Russia returns to global society?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

The Basket said:


> It's up to Vladimir Vladimirovich who decides who wins and who loses.
> 
> As the quote goes...some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.



I wonder how he'll feel about "winning" in a year or two.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 13, 2022)

Couldn’t the US post some Patriot systems in Poland to shoot down any incoming Russian cruise missile attacks on the arms import points? That’s not attacking Russian pilots.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Re: Thump
> 
> I agree. Had Zelenski accepted that free ride to exile, the whole storyline changes.



Zelenskyy has an incredible understanding of optics and motivation. "I don't need a ride, we need ammunition" is as perfect a summation of that as can be expressed.

Ironically enough, Gen Chuikov gave about the same answer to Stavka in 1942 while defending Stalingrad. Q: "What do you need? More men?" A: "More ammo."

Them are fightin' fools.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Couldn’t the US post some Patriot systems in Poland to shoot down any incoming Russian cruise missile attacks on the arms import points? That’s not attacking Russian pilots.



Physically, yes. Not sure about the politics of it.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

There were talks of establishing a NATO BMD system in Europe back in '09 or so, but the Russian's claimed it was a threat to their national security and went to far as to threaten countries like Norway and Denmark.

Because of Russia's tearful objections, it was shelved.

However, there are several USN Aegis warships strategically located around Europe in place of a land-based BMD system, that can do the job.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Physically, yes. Not sure about the politics of it.



Fraid shooting down missiles that are going to land I Ukraine does not count as defending NATO territorial integrity. From a ROE perspective, it would still count as NATO getting directly involved in the fighting.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Fraid shooting down missiles that are going to land I Ukraine does not count as defending NATO territorial integrity. From a ROE perspective, it would still count as NATO getting directly involved in the fighting.



Perhaps so. No doubt this is part of the calculations going on in various capitals. Hence my caveat about political implications.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 13, 2022)

The Patriots are on their way though. 

Two Army Patriot missile batteries dispatched to Poland

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 13, 2022)

Russian warship that attacked Snake Island has been destroyed: report


A military-intelligence group told The Times that the Vasily Bykov was one of two ships that attacked Ukraine's Snake Island last month.



www.businessinsider.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 13, 2022)

Satisfying.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 13, 2022)

It appears that the Russian warship that attacked Snake Island has been sunk by the Ukraine Navy









Ukrainians sink Russian warship that attacked Snake Island – report


Ukrainian military says Vasily Bykov sunk in a missile attack near the port city of Odesa




www.timesofisrael.com

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## Jamoliva (Mar 13, 2022)

In case you have not seen it, here is a very informative speech on war against Ukraine by Andrei Illarionov delivered almost 7 years ago at the Atlantic Council. His analysis on Putin regime and the reasons for war including predicting the current situation is eye opening.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 13, 2022)

Hopefully someone can find more info on this and validate it

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## Crimea_River (Mar 14, 2022)

Well, China is still being China. The attached article covers the closing ceremonies at the Paralympic Games in Beijing. An excerpt mentioning the speech by the IPC president Andrew Parsons follows and the bold is mine:

"These Games opened eight days after the military conflict began, as Parsons made an impassioned plea for world authorities "to come together, as athletes do, and promote peace, understanding and inclusion."

*Parts of Parsons' speech were not translated by Chinese state TV and some of the audio was dropped. The IPC lodged a protest over what it said was likely censorship but was told the silence was caused by an unexplained glitch.*

China has yet to denounce Russia's military action against Ukraine."



https://www.cbc.ca/sports/paralympics/winter-sports/beijing-winter-paralympics-closing-ceremony-1.6383271


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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

I started poking around on those links, wlewisiii. I came across a NATO article on "Cold Response 2022". I hope someone links it. 
Every 2 years Norway, a founding NATO member, hosts "Cold Response". The first one was held in 2016. I think 2018 may have been skipped but the last one was carried out in 2020. There's going to a bunch more of NATO scheduled for 14 March, 2022. . I'll bet those guys can't wait to show off their logistical acumen!

I used to schedule my Thailand vacations to cleverly avoid "Cobra Gold". I never worked for a national defense or intelligence agency.


THIS JUST IN: Russia declined to send observers.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> The Patriots are on their way though.
> 
> Two Army Patriot missile batteries dispatched to Poland



The only thing that’s moving are personnel from the 82nd Airborne. The missiles are already in Germany and have been for some time. Patriot has been employed regularly in Europe-based training exercises for a number of years.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Fraid shooting down missiles that are going to land I Ukraine does not count as defending NATO territorial integrity. From a ROE perspective, it would still count as NATO getting directly involved in the fighting.




A
 Admiral Beez
, what’s to “dislike” about my post? I’m not expressing an opinion. I’m stating a fact. You may not like how NATO is responding but the alternative is all-out war with Russia. Shooting at anything Russian counts as an act of war, hence my comment about ROE.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A
> Admiral Beez
> , what’s to “dislike” about my post? I’m not expressing an opinion. I’m stating a fact. You may not like how NATO is responding but the alternative is all-out war with Russia. Shooting at anything Russian counts as an act of war, hence my comment about ROE.


Agreed.

There is absolutely ZERO that NATO or the EU can do militarily beyond the established borders at this point in time.

Even the Russian drone that strayed into Europe proper and crashed in Croatia did not require a response.

Russia has to militarily violate NATO airspace/territory in order for an article 5 action and they've come within 10 miles of doing so in their recent cruise missile attacks near the Polish border.

As much as we want to step in and help the Ukraine, we cannot allow passion to cloud rational decisions.

Total war would be the result and in this day and age, it would make WWII look like a third world nation border skirmish...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Agreed.
> 
> There is absolutely ZERO that NATO or the EU can do militarily beyond the established borders at this point in time.
> 
> ...



Violations of airspace and maritime areas under NATO control historically aren’t that uncommon due to navigation errors. We don’t want to kick off WW3 just because some poorly trained Russian pilot loses situational awareness. 

It’s all too easy to rattle the sabre, as some commentators on this thread and elsewhere have suggested, if you’re not the one who’s held accountable for a wrong decision that results in NATO service personnel dying unnecessarily or, worse, that escalates an already nasty conflict into a much larger fight.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 14, 2022)

True, it's one thing for an aircraft, ship or even a drone to stray, but if a cruise missile lands in Poland or Romania under the auspices of attacking a town (or rather "military" target), then there will be most likely be a response.
With the current satellite telemetry in action, the source of the cruise missile may/may not be neutralized with a stern warning.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Hopefully someone can find more info on this and validate it



This sounds like wishful thinking on our part and hero propaganda or to be fairer exaggeration on the Ukrainians. 200+ vehicles destroyed? That would take much of the available Ukrainian ATGWs. I hope it’s true, but I‘ll wait for Western verification outside of Twitter. But hell anyways, go Ukraine!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A
> Admiral Beez
> , what’s to “dislike” about my post?


It’s a funny thing how sensitive we are about the perception of others. Someone clicks “winner” and we’re all chuffed and proud. Do you send inquires to anyone who “likes” your posts to find out why? Anyway, l clicked dislike not as a disagreement of your post, what you wrote is spot on, what I disliked was the fact that_ “shooting down missiles that are going to land in Ukraine…would still count as NATO getting directly involved in the fighting.” _ You’re correct, but I don’t like it, hence the dislike. If I’d disagreed with your post I would have clicked that instead.

The Ukrainians need larger, more powerful SAMs than MANPADS in order to keep their supply lines with Poland open, to intercept the ballistic missiles hitting military and civilian areas across the country and to suppress the Russian air forces. What can the West provide? Ukraine has experience with the anti-ballistic missile capable S-300 system. Here’s other SAMs the Ukrainians use. Perhaps Bulgaria or other former Russian vassal states can share them? Are there any NATO long range air defence missile systems we would be willing/able to provide that the Ukrainians would be able to operate? If the Russians can close the corridor to Poland it might be fatal to the Ukrainians - the Russians should have invaded straight down the border with Poland from Belarus on day one.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 14, 2022)

Hoo boy. If these radios - 100% analog with no security - are what the Russian Army is using, they're even worse off than we thought.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 14, 2022)

Heared they were using these in high level communications.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 14, 2022)

Su-25 that was hit by a MANPAD:

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## wlewisiii (Mar 14, 2022)

Damn it...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The only thing that’s moving are personnel from the 82nd Airborne. The missiles are already in Germany and have been for some time. Patriot has been employed regularly in Europe-based training exercises for a number of years.



Yeah, we have had Patriot batteries in Germany for as long as I can remember. Even going back to my teenage days. When I was on active duty we had a battery stationed just down the road from our airfield.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A
> Admiral Beez
> , what’s to “dislike” about my post? I’m not expressing an opinion. I’m stating a fact. You may not like how NATO is responding but the alternative is all-out war with Russia. Shooting at anything Russian counts as an act of war, hence my comment about ROE.



I’m not saying anyone here is like this, but I have found many (especially those in the US) don’t quite understand the gravity of the situation.

All I ever hear is “We are weak!”, “We should be attacking the Russians!”, and “We would win easily!”

They don’t understand how dangerous it is to get involved militarily.

I don’t know about the rest of you all, but I want a world for my kids to grow up in, not a smoldering waste land.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Damn it...




Bastards. There is no reason other than terror to hit a maternity hospital.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

US warns Chinese on support for Russia in Ukraine war


Face to face, President Joe Biden's national security adviser warned a top Chinese official on Monday about China's support for Russia in the Ukrainian invasion, even as the Kremlin denied reports it had requested Chinese military equipment to use in the war. U.S. adviser Jake Sullivan and...




www.yahoo.com

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## Marcel (Mar 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Damn it...



To be fair, these are all stories that are pushed out by Ukranian propaganda to dehumanize the Russian soldiers. Notice how they single out individual stories. Not saying it isn't true, we all know that it happens, but they use this to manipulate the public opinion. If you look at it more neutrally, it just tells you that war is a bitch. (don't confuse this like that I don't have compassion or sympathy for the Ukranian people. I do and I feel very sorry for the poor woman and especially her loved ones).

The stories of shooting down Rusian aircraft can be seen in the same light. Notice how they report every single occurrence of shooting down an aircraft, while there must be hundreds flying out there. It's all to boost moral.

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## Denniss (Mar 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Hoo boy. If these radios - 100% analog with no security - are what the Russian Army is using, they're even worse off than we thought.



AFAIR the russians have a high-end encripted communications system ....... that relies on mobile telephone service. With that gone or disabled for russian numbers this 'high-end' system is worth nothing. these analog things do actually work although the enemy will always have an ear on their comms


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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s a funny thing how sensitive we are about the perception of others. Someone clicks “winner” and we’re all chuffed and proud. Do you send inquires to anyone who “likes” your posts to find out why? Anyway, l clicked dislike not as a disagreement of your post, what you wrote is spot on, what I disliked was the fact that_ “shooting down missiles that are going to land in Ukraine…would still count as NATO getting directly involved in the fighting.” _ You’re correct, but I don’t like it, hence the dislike. If I’d disagreed with your post I would have clicked that instead.



Forgive the "sensitivity" but you're the only forum member I'm aware of who enabled the "ignore" function against my posts because you labelled me a "contrarian," so it's hard to tell whether or not you're making a personal comment. Seems like you're shooting the messenger rather than engaging with the actual problem which remains the simple truth that NATO cannot deliver ANY military effects beyond NATO's borders until Article 5 is enacted. To do so would mean NATO was ceasing to be defensive and starting to be offensive...which is EXACTLY what Putin has been claiming for decades (i.e. that NATO is a threat to Russia).




Admiral Beez said:


> The Ukrainians need larger, more powerful SAMs than MANPADS in order to keep their supply lines with Poland open, to intercept the ballistic missiles hitting military and civilian areas across the country and to suppress the Russian air forces. What can the West provide? Ukraine has experience with the anti-ballistic missile capable S-300 system. Here’s other SAMs the Ukrainians use. Perhaps Bulgaria or other former Russian vassal states can share them? Are there any NATO long range air defence missile systems we would be willing/able to provide that the Ukrainians would be able to operate? If the Russians can close the corridor to Poland it might be fatal to the Ukrainians - the Russians should have invaded straight down the border with Poland from Belarus on day one.



It's not clear how much of the pre-war Ukrainian SAM inventory remains operationally viable. There's no point sending more missiles for existing Ukrainian SAM systems if the launchers and radars have already been destroyed or are inoperable. There's also the challenge of ensuring we're sending missiles that are 100% interoperable with the Ukrainian systems. Just because it says "S-300" on the box does not mean the exact missile variant will work with the launcher, radar etc...and I suspect the Russian manufacturers won't want to help answer those questions.

Any new long-range SAM systems that are not currently operated by Ukraine would simply become targets for Russian air and ground assets. SAMs are incredibly complex systems that require extensive training and integration with other systems (e.g. early warning). Until that level of operational proficiency and integration is achieved, the missile systems are just expensive boxes of electronics that can't threaten anything.

I guess that's me being a contrarian again.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 14, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Heared they were using these in high level communications.
> 
> View attachment 661269


That's considered a secure line. Virtually impossible for our SIGINT guys to intercept.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 14, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> That's considered a secure line. Virtually impossible for our SIGINT guys to intercept.


Yes and the more expensive ones you make a group call. Brilliand russian engineering.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Yes and the more expensive ones you make a group call. Brilliand russian engineering.
> 
> View attachment 661309


Actually, this system had a lot of knotty problems so they canned it.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Actually, this system had a lot of knotty problems so they canned it.



Go and stand in the naughty corner....NOW!!!

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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Go and stand in the naughty corner....NOW!!!


I'm sorry I can't. It's already full of contrarians.

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny said today that there were 259 cruise missiles strikes and 395 cruise missiles were launched by RF.
We can assume that 136 missiles or 35% were intercepted or malfunctioned. 
The grim reality is that Ukrainian stocks of SAMs go down without any prospects (so far) of getting foreign assistance.
RF can dig in, limit costly advances and continue to destroy cities and infrastructure with long-range weapons.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I'm sorry I can't. It's already full of contrarians.



Come to the dark side...we have cookies!

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> @Admiral Beez, what’s to “dislike” about my post? I’m not expressing an opinion. I’m stating a fact. You may not like how NATO is responding but the alternative is all-out war with Russia. Shooting at anything Russian counts as an act of war, hence my comment about ROE.


There are many alternatives. Some of these alternatives are used by several NATO members, but not by NATO itself.

No, shooting at anything Russian does not count as an act of war.
Just two well-known examples.








Battle of Khasham - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












2015 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 shootdown - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny said today that there were 259 cruise missiles strikes and 395 cruise missiles were launched by RF.
> We can assume that 136 missiles or 35% were intercepted or malfunctioned.
> The grim reality is that Ukrainian stocks of SAMs go down without any prospects (so far) of getting foreign assistance.
> RF can dig in, limit costly advances and continue to destroy cities and infrastructure with long-range weapons.


Interesting for me is to know how many cruise missiles Russia has available.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> There are many alternatives. Some of these alternatives are used by several NATO members, but not by NATO itself.
> 
> No, shooting at anything Russian does not count as an act of war.
> Just two well-known examples.
> ...



It rather depends on the political and operational context at the time. The Russians that were or were not hit in the Battle of Khasham were private military contractors and not the Russian military (back to the Kremlin's plausible deniability). For the Su-24 shootdown, the FENCER was (according to Turkey and the US) inside Turkish airspace and had been warned several times to alter course with no response. 

As I noted previously, there are often incursions of Russian aircraft and ships into NATO airspace/waters that do not result in shooting events. Also, accidents do happen. Even in the current situation, I could see a one-off instance Russian fire into NATO territory being brushed off and not drawing a NATO response. What I CANNOT see, given the current crisis, is Russia meekly accepting any NATO member nation opening fire against ANY Russian asset (manned or otherwise). ANY shooting by a NATO member nation into Russian assets in Ukraine will almost certainly be declared by Putin as NATO aggression and, very likely, be labelled as an act of war.

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sounds like wishful thinking on our part and hero propaganda or to be fairer exaggeration on the Ukrainians. 200+ vehicles destroyed? That would take much of the available Ukrainian ATGWs. I hope it’s true, but I‘ll wait for Western verification outside of Twitter. But hell anyways, go Ukraine!


It has not been confirmed yet. Most probably, exaggeration.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It rather depends on the political and operational context at the time. The Russians that were or were not hit in the Battle of Khasham were private military contractors and not the Russian military (back to the Kremlin's plausible deniability). For the Su-24 shootdown, the FENCER was (according to Turkey and the US) inside Turkish airspace and had been warned several times to alter course with no response.
> 
> As I noted previously, there are often incursions of Russian aircraft and ships into NATO airspace/waters that do not result in shooting events. Also, accidents do happen. Even in the current situation, I could see a one-off instance Russian fire into NATO territory being brushed off and not drawing a NATO response. What I CANNOT see, given the current crisis, is Russia meekly accepting any NATO member nation opening fire against ANY Russian asset (manned or otherwise). ANY shooting by a NATO member nation into Russian assets in Ukraine will almost certainly be declared by Putin as NATO aggression and, very likely, be labelled as an act of war.


In the context of current events that is the way things are. It would also be in Russian interests to be able to label NATO as an aggressor as it could help
them to sway certain fence sitters toward them.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> There are many alternatives. Some of these alternatives are used by several NATO members, but not by NATO itself.
> 
> No, shooting at anything Russian does not count as an act of war.
> Just two well-known examples.
> ...



Just because something does not count as an act of war does not mean Russia does not have to perceive it as one and retaliate by starting WW3. Putin will spin and label anything as NATO aggression.

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It rather depends on the political and operational context at the time. The Russians that were or were not hit in the Battle of Khasham were private military contractors and not the Russian military (back to the Kremlin's plausible deniability). For the Su-24 shootdown, the FENCER was (according to Turkey and the US) inside Turkish airspace and had been warned several times to alter course with no response.
> 
> As I noted previously, there are often incursions of Russian aircraft and ships into NATO airspace/waters that do not result in shooting events. Also, accidents do happen. Even in the current situation, I could see a one-off instance Russian fire into NATO territory being brushed off and not drawing a NATO response. What I CANNOT see, given the current crisis, is Russia meekly accepting any NATO member nation opening fire against ANY Russian asset (manned or otherwise). ANY shooting by a NATO member nation into Russian assets in Ukraine will almost certainly be declared by Putin as NATO aggression and, very likely, be labelled as an act of war.


The problem is that NATO bluntly and publicly refused to consider any reaction to this invasion except the "condemnation" and some token assistance. 10 days ago according to Zelensky, whole NATO support was 50 (fifty) tons of diesel oil. I did not see any rebuttals, so most probably, he was right.
There are other alternatives besides the _"shooting by a NATO member nation into Russian assets in Ukraine"._ Everybody knows them. None has been implemented so far - by NATO. All real military assistance so far was done by *individual* agreements with several countries. And since last week - with a help of thousands of brave men who began to arrive in Ukraine from NATO member countries. But almost nothing was done by NATO *as the organisation.* Many in Ukraine consider that as a serious leadership crisis, if not paralysis. A striking contrast with the attitude and actions of the EU, whom we used to consider to be slow and "bureaucratic" in the worst meaning of the word. The EU is acting fast and decisively. Kudos to Ursula and others!
Call me a pessimist but now I think that Macron was right, calling NATO "brain dead".


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee, I will say I understand your frustration. I really do.

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's not clear how much of the pre-war Ukrainian SAM inventory remains operationally viable. There's no point sending more missiles for existing Ukrainian SAM systems if the launchers and radars have already been destroyed or are inoperable. There's also the challenge of ensuring we're sending missiles that are 100% interoperable with the Ukrainian systems. Just because it says "S-300" on the box does not mean the exact missile variant will work with the launcher, radar etc...and I suspect the Russian manufacturers won't want to help answer those questions.
> 
> Any new long-range SAM systems that are not currently operated by Ukraine would simply become targets for Russian air and ground assets. SAMs are incredibly complex systems that require extensive training and integration with other systems (e.g. early warning). Until that level of operational proficiency and integration is achieved, the missile systems are just expensive boxes of electronics that can't threaten anything.
> 
> I guess that's me being a contrarian again.


Actually, it is very clear how much of the Ukrainian SAMs remains operational - for the Ukrainian military. And they do say they need more missiles. Who can know better? Same with the compatibility. Ukrainian experts can decide what exactly they need. President said to the foreign press: we know where compatible equipment is and we are ready to pay and deliver.

About the training. Yes, valid point. But this war lasts for almost three weeks and it might last for many months or years. No, I'm not kidding.
How many manhours are required to get the Patriot battery crew fully prepared? I have no idea, but forum members could provide some figures. The sooner the training begins, the better for everyone.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Actually, it is very clear how much of the Ukrainian SAMs remains operational - for the Ukrainian military. And they do say they need more missiles. Who can know better? Same with the compatibility. Ukrainian experts can decide what exactly they need. President said to the foreign press: we know where compatible equipment is and we are ready to pay and deliver.
> 
> About the training. Yes, valid point. But this war lasts for almost three weeks and it might last for many months or years. No, I'm not kidding.
> How many manhours are required to get the Patriot battery crew fully prepared? I have no idea, but forum members could provide some figures. The sooner the training begins, the better for everyone.


This is a good point. An interview I listened to today with a fellow who has followed this sort of situation for years as an analyst noted that all too often
things such as military aid are made available far too late. Sanctions have generally been too little too late as well.

He also stated that this time things are different in two ways. 

First, sanctions have been imposed very quickly and are hitting hard because they are all in, not just a few around the edges.

Second, although individual countries have decided to supply weapons and other support, it is actually because NATO cannot officially
sanction such moves as again it can be construed as aggression by them.

President Macron derides NATO but is at the same time advocating for an 'EU' army which would take us into the realm of politics but suffice
to say it would be a dangerous thing to have instead of seperate sovereign nations looking to themselves and allied when necessary.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The problem is that NATO bluntly and publicly refused to consider any reaction to this invasion except the "condemnation" and some token assistance. 10 days ago according to Zelensky, whole NATO support was 50 (fifty) tons of diesel oil. I did not see any rebuttals, so most probably, he was right.
> There are other alternatives besides the _"shooting by a NATO member nation into Russian assets in Ukraine"._ Everybody knows them. None has been implemented so far - by NATO. All real military assistance so far was done by *individual* agreements with several countries. And since last week - with a help of thousands of brave men who began to arrive in Ukraine from NATO member countries. But almost nothing was done by NATO *as the organisation.* Many in Ukraine consider that as a serious leadership crisis, if not paralysis. A striking contrast with the attitude and actions of the EU, whom we used to consider to be slow and "bureaucratic" in the worst meaning of the word. The EU is acting fast and decisively. Kudos to Ursula and others!
> Call me a pessimist but now I think that Macron was right, calling NATO "brain dead".



Dimlee,

I do understand your frustration but I'm afraid the "other alternatives" that "everybody knows" aren't very clear to me. NATO has zero forces under its control. All "NATO" forces are supplied by member nations. Including NATO HQ in any decision-making would simply slow things down...so it's better for member nations to work directly with Ukraine to speed deployment of resources.

NATO has mobilized the NATO Response Force (NRF) for the first time...ever. NATO members have increased the readiness of NRF forces, and we've also seen deployments and increased defensive patrols (e.g. CAPs, ISR etc). 

However...this comes back to the question of what more can NATO do as an organization? It has no forces it can deploy. It only takes over military control if a member nation is attacked. This has nothing to do with bureaucracy and everything to do with the role and purpose behind NATO.

What do you want NATO (the organization) to do?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Actually, it is very clear how much of the Ukrainian SAMs remains operational - for the Ukrainian military. And they do say they need more missiles. Who can know better? Same with the compatibility. Ukrainian experts can decide what exactly they need. President said to the foreign press: we know where compatible equipment is and we are ready to pay and deliver.



Yes the Ukrainian military knows how many SAMs they still have operational...I was simply responding to the point that nations should simply provide missiles to Ukraine. I have no problem with providing Ukraine with specific missiles that we know will actually work with their systems. But the devil is always in the details. Even small differences between systems can limit interoperability...which could mean all the effort to provide the missiles has zero operational benefit. I'm all for exploring those issues in detail to determine if more advanced missiles can be provided to Ukraine. I'd love to see more Russian aircraft being shot down. I just don't think it's as easy as everyone seems to think it is....and I base this on many years working systems interoperability and integration issues.




Dimlee said:


> About the training. Yes, valid point. But this war lasts for almost three weeks and it might last for many months or years. No, I'm not kidding.
> How many manhours are required to get the Patriot battery crew fully prepared? I have no idea, but forum members could provide some figures. The sooner the training begins, the better for everyone.



It's more complicated than that. Where will the training occur? In Ukraine or in a NATO member nation? Either approach provides a propaganda gift to Putin because it either puts NATO-member forces in Ukraine or has Ukrainian forces being trained inside NATO...both of which are golden messaging opportunities for Putin. Also, it's one thing to be able to operate the system. It's another thing entirely to operate it in a tactical environment. Larger systems like Patriot aren't well-suited to the type of shoot-and-scoot tactics that Ukraine needs to employ given that it's overmatched by Russian military strength. It takes a LOT of practice to be able to fight effectively with these systems and systems like Patriot that aren't particularly mobile simply become high-value targets for Russian air and ground forces. 

Getting a SAM battery operational is one thing but ensuring it can integrate with the wider early warning network is entirely different. The response time for any SAM battery is a function of the degree of situational awareness that the battery possesses. Less situational awareness means reduced warning, which in turn equates to shorter practical engagement ranges. If you're reducing your engagement range, what's the point of having a "long range" SAM system?

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## Jerad (Mar 14, 2022)

BTR-4 «Bucephalus» destroys Russian technics (BMP-1 and T-72B3) near Mariupol. 14.03.2022



Destroyed colomn rf. North neer Kiev 13.03.2022



Ukraine War - Rooftop Ukrainians Target Russian Forces With ATGM & NLAW Anti-Tank Weapons

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## Grandson312 (Mar 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just a quick point about the so-called Nazis - President Zelensky's family save for one brother, was murdered by Nazis in WWII.
> The one survivor, Zelensky's grandfather, fought the Germans during WWII.
> 
> Pretty sure that if there were actual Nazis in Ukraine, Zelensky would have dealt with the issue without needing Putin's help...



In 2014, the Azov unit, by its own drill Sgt's, account ,was 50% Nazi. Their words, not mine. Their own official spokesperson claimed it was "only" 10-20%. 









Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis


Some members of the Azov Brigade fighting separatists are accused of abuses.



www.usatoday.com





So is the word of their own representatives to be taken seriously? Was that Sgt. a Russian plant? The spokesperson as well? Possible, not likely. Were the avowed Nazis purged in the 8 years since? 

Hard to say, but we do know that the Trump Administration specifically exempted them by name from receiving US Arms. US Senators from either party have mentioned this problem of Nazification in Ukraine and attempted to curtail it and draw attention to it. 

All that I can say for certain is, the Right Sector in Ukraine is not a myth. The Azov Battalion does in fact use a Nazi Dark Sun and Panzer Swastika, in cheerful Ukrainian yellow-and-blue, and has expanded from 900 to 3,000 members since 2014, and is an official part of the Ukraine guard. The founders of Azov have made public statements that leave no room for interpretation, their own Officers have previously admitted to the problem, with no corrective measure even hinted at - so it seems reasonable to conclude there is something to it. 

You can find numerous reports I do not know the validity of, alleging cease-fire violations by this very unit, numbering into the thousands, and statements of threats to Zelenskyy. 

But there is so much Russian BS thrown into the mix - most notably perhaps a large number of very fake stories, investigated by Amnesty International surrounding a horrible event at Odesa - that it's impossible for us to know how bad the problem really is. 


Anyway, I am not a Russian, but it's OK to be Russian. 

The amount of Russophobic lemming behavior of "cancellation" is predictable, but still disheartening, and does nothing but play right into the hands of Putin propaganda. The net result of Russophobia is more confusion, chaos and death. 

One example being Alexander Malofeev, classical pianist, who did in fact make statements against the war, but apparently not to the satisfaction of his censors. To expect Russian artists fearing for their families in Russia and Ukraine to make anti-Putin statements is extremely stupid and cruel, and again, only feeds Russian propaganda.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 14, 2022)

The Chinese said NOPE!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 14, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Mar 14, 2022)

I've encoutered people like that in our Georgia too!

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## GTX (Mar 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The Chinese said NOPE!



Would they really have said yes admitting it?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

This is how we know they did ask.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> In 2014, the Azov unit, by its own drill Sgt's, account ,was 50% Nazi. Their words, not mine. Their own official spokesperson claimed it was "only" 10-20%.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This was brought up in Oliver Stone's 2016 documentary, supposedly these "Ukrainian Nazis" were terrorizing a Russian speaking population living in the eastern part of the country and has been the basis of some of the reasoning behind Putin's invasion.

I call BS to a point.

No doubt these folks were real. There's also been talk about some of these Nazis were plants by the Kremlin.









Putin's claim to rid Ukraine of Nazis is especially absurd given its history


A Holocaust historian explains why Ukrainian history needs to be understood in terms of both past violence against Jews as well as the state’s pluralistic vision.




theconversation.com





Yes, Trump did use these allegations (and other things) for refusal to send arms to Ukraine, I guess these Ukrainian Nazis were not as good as the Nazis who attended Trump rallies!?!







But it looks like some were kicked off Facebook but allowed on a Russian site. - Hey, that's freedom of speech, right?









US White Nationalists Find Haven


One hundred right-wing groups with 10,000 members vent hatred, recruit members on VK




www.voanews.com





But then again, many Nazis in the US supported Trump. I guess that didn't matter to Putin.









Holocaust-denying neo-Nazis among the Trump supporters who stormed US Capitol


White supremacists join Washington rampage, with experts saying the violence was stoked by far-right conspiracy theories like QAnon




www.timesofisrael.com





My point is this twisted ideology can be found in many parts of the world, but is it a representation of ALL the people? NO!

But then again, when Volodymyr Zelenskiy won the 2019 election, he took over 70% of the vote. Not bad for a Jew who supposedly has Nazis running around his country...







"Anyway, I am not a Russian, but it's OK to be Russian."

Agree - but as you pointed out, look who is perpetrating the story...

In the mean time...









'Things Will Only Get Worse.' Putin's War Sends Russians Into Exile.


ISTANBUL — They lined up at ATMs, desperate for cash after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia, swapping intelligence on where they could still get dollars. At Istanbul cafes, they sat quietly studying Telegram chats or Google Maps on their phones. They organized support groups to...




www.yahoo.com





I hope 

 Dimlee
and some of our other friends who are currently in that part of the world comments on this.

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## Dimlee (Mar 14, 2022)

From a different perspective. Good talk with good historians.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 14, 2022)

Grandson312 said:


> In 2014, the Azov unit, by its own drill Sgt's, account ,was 50% Nazi. Their words, not mine.


I’d guess much of the early Bundeswehr soldiers and leaders were former Nazis. I have no doubt there are young, frustrated, angry men in Ukraine seeking a flag-waving nationalist cause that borders on racism and fascism. Peoples opinions and mindsets change, and I expect even the most anti Semitic Ukrainian is now behind their president.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

That's a switch!


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That's a switch!


It’s not such a binary POV. Some of the Azov leadership are themselves Jewish and admirers of Israel. Andriy Biletsky, the founder of the Azov Battalion _“explained that he regards Israel and Japan as role models for the development of Ukraine”._

In 2006 I visited Israel for a week and the Sparta-like, religion/linguistic/ethnic based nationalism and always-ready world class militarism combined with strong democratic and community service traditions, corruption-free governance, free market economy and a lovely, joy-filled, family-focused Mediterranean life would appeal to any people wanting to build a better nation. Just don’t ask the Palestinians.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> corruption-free governance


I think we can leave this part out.









Israel launches state probe into German submarine purchase


JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel's Cabinet approved Sunday the launch of a state investigation into an affair involving the purchase of submarines and other warships from Germany, a case that has embroiled close confidants of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.




apnews.com













Report: Police used NSO’s spyware in corruption probe of Likud MK


Law enforcement allegedly obtained photographs and information from phone of David Bitan's acquaintance; lawmaker appears in court for first time in trial




www.timesofisrael.com













Netanyahu Corruption Trial: Israeli PM to attend opening statement| Latest World News | English News


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial is all set to resume. Netanyahu have arrived in the court to attend the statement of the trial. #I




corruptionbuzz.com

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I think we can leave this part out.


We’ll said, I should have written corruption-reduced governance. Here in Canada our governments at all level suffer from corruption, but it’s lightweight compared to what the former eastern bloc suffered.

On Israel, where Orthodox and Arabs aside, every man and woman is an experienced soldier, can you imagine Russia trying to invade a country as nationally united and militarily organized, experienced and equipped as Israel. Make Ukraine in that guise and Russia is curb stomped by day five.


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## Jerad (Mar 14, 2022)

Stuck in textures..... or something went wrong. Chernigiv region, ukrainian soldiers have hoarded 5 T-80U tanks Rf.
14.03.2022

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Keep eyes and ears open for news on Wednesday:

_The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague has said it will rule on Wednesday on a case brought by Ukraine against Russia, accusing it of falsely justifying its invasion.

Ukraine filed the case soon after the Russian invasion on 24 February. It accuses Russia of using false claims that Ukrainian forces were committing genocide in separatist-held areas of the Donbas region as a pretext to attack.

Russian officials did not appear at an earlier hearing at the UN's World Court on 7 March.

In a statement, the ICJ said that the court will deliver its order at 1600 local time (1500 GMT) on Wednesday, 16 March.

A separate war crimes investigation has also been launched by the International Criminal Court to look into allegations of war crimes committed in Ukraine._


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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

This fella had one lucky escape:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622f91ea980bea49f4b7c8fc%26WATCH%3A%20Missile%20explodes%20in%20front%20of%20civilian%20in%20Kyiv%262022-03-14T19%3A40%3A06.190Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:68d3fcbc-42ca-4258-8638-f9118fd762e7&pinned_post_asset_id=622f91ea980bea49f4b7c8fc&pinned_post_type=share


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## wlewisiii (Mar 14, 2022)

Some interesting footing from a BTR-4



(edit: fixed link)

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

Gutsy protest in Russia:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60717902?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622fb2d9ec502b53cd4822ed%26Russian%20TV%20protester%20opens%20up%20about%20stunt%262022-03-14T21%3A42%3A32.467Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f575a414-3fe0-4d64-8cb0-31a756acbf11&pinned_post_asset_id=622fb2d9ec502b53cd4822ed&pinned_post_type=share

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2022)

Brave Woman!









Antiwar Protester Fined After Storming Set Of State-Run Russian Newscast — Update


UPDATE, 9:51 AM PT: Marina Ovsyannikova, who burst onto the set of a state-Russian newscast to protest the war in Ukraine, was fined 30,000 rouble, or about $280. She also pleaded not guilty on Tue…




deadline.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2022)

Buff - great minds think alike!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 14, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Buff - great minds think alike!



Go see a therapist, Joe. You do NOT want your mind working like mine!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 14, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Brave Woman!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This woman also deserves a medal!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 14, 2022)

BTW, the new fast HMG pickup. Albeit not too much of allroad:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 14, 2022)

_Nearly all Russian advances in Ukraine remain stalled due in part to "creative" strikes from the Ukrainians limiting the ability of Kremlin forces to resupply, a senior U.S. defense official said Monday. 

The Ukrainians "have effectively struck at the Russian logistics and sustainment capabilities," the official told reporters. 

"As we've said all along, they've been quite creative here. They're not simply going after combat capability — tanks and armored vehicles and shooting down aircraft. Although they're doing all that, they are also deliberately trying to impede and prevent the Russians' ability to sustain themselves." 

The official also said "almost all of Russia's advances remain stalled" on the ground in Ukraine, with forces moving toward Kyiv showing no "appreciable change in their progress over the weekend." 

Russian forces have made far less progress in Ukraine than was initially expected thanks to a fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces, poor logistical planning and difficulties with sustainment. 

That struggle has been on display with a miles-long column of Russian vehicles outside of Kyiv that has barely moved over the course of two weeks. 

Russian forces approaching Kyiv from the north, including the convoy, remain about 9 miles outside the city center, the official said. 

Although Moscow is trying to flow in forces behind this advance, "that continues, but not at a great pace," they added. 

Attacks on the cities of Chernihiv and Kharkiv also remain stalled thanks to the strong Ukrainian resistance, but Chernihiv is now isolated, and Kharkiv has seen an increase in long-range fire missile strikes. 

One new development is that the Russians have sent 50 to 60 vehicles towards the town of Izyum in western Ukraine. The assumption is the Kremlin is trying to "prevent the flow westward of any Ukrainian armed forces that would be in the eastern part of the country, prevent them from coming to the assistance of other Ukrainian defenders near Kyiv," according to the official._









Russian advances remain stalled as Ukraine targets supply efforts


Nearly all Russian advances in Ukraine remain stalled due in part to “creative” strikes from the Ukrainians limiting the ability of Kremlin forces to resupply, a senior U.S. defense official said M…




thehill.com





Hard to guard one's supply-lines when you've invaded a country the size of Texas with less than 200,000 troops, and every man-jack there is wanting a chance to shoot.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Nearly all Russian advances in Ukraine remain stalled due in part to "creative" strikes from the Ukrainians limiting the ability of Kremlin forces to resupply, a senior U.S. defense official said Monday.
> 
> The Ukrainians "have effectively struck at the Russian logistics and sustainment capabilities," the official told reporters.
> 
> ...


And better armed. Is that even possible?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And better armed. Is that even possible?



I guess it is when the invader has run out of ammo. I suspect that's one reason we're seeing a shift to missile- and air-strikes from the RF.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

RF forces had to turn to increased air strike operations as their ground forces lack a capable farm tractor defense.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

Buy John Deere along with Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Buy John Deere along with Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.



On a related note, Deere has not only complied with the sanctions program, but donated over $1mil so far to charities serving Ukraine.

I'll buy that!

Now if only Raytheon would donate some Patriots ... manned by, uh, "volunteers" ...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 14, 2022)

The big blue tractors you see on occasion, with or without Russian armor in tow, are Kharkiv tractors.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The big blue tractors you see on occasion, with or without Russian armor in tow, are Kharkiv tractors.



Oh, who needs facts for a rah-rah moment?!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 14, 2022)

OoooH. Ooooh. I do!

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 14, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Mar 14, 2022)

If you're going to be buying stock in a successful tractor company, you need to know which is the best performer.


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## fubar57 (Mar 14, 2022)



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## The Basket (Mar 14, 2022)

The woman who did the protest on the news show is a brave person.

Her career is done and she may get prison time followed by a novichok sandwich.

Didn't have to but she did.

So kudos to her and hope it works out for her.

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 14, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 661345


I thought the Aussies had arrived

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## gumbyk (Mar 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Buy John Deere along with Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.


Does that mean they'll be subject to the ITAR regulations?

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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 661345


Always protect the turret. There's a condom joke in there somewhere......

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## ThomasP (Mar 14, 2022)

Hey WARSPITER,

re "Interesting for me is to know how many cruise missiles Russia has available."

The last estimate I saw said about 1300 tactical land attack cruise missiles as of 2017. I think this included the shipborne land attack variants.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey WARSPITER,
> 
> re "Interesting for me is to know how many cruise missiles Russia has available."
> 
> The last estimate I saw said about 1300 tactical land attack cruise missiles as of 2017. I think this included the shipborne land attack variants.


Should it be assumed that a portion of those were used in Syria ? If so, what is the production rate of replacements ?
Several hundred left might be right ?

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## J_P_C (Mar 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I think we can leave this part out.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 sounds like great joke - how it looks like - order ships in germany, force germany to cover 50% of fee out of german taxpayer's pocked with using holocaust as bussiness negotiation factor than launching investigation.... yes it sounds pretty much like right way


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## Graeme (Mar 15, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

Looks like Russia is bringing out some of their latest kit.

Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine


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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Russia is bringing out some of their latest kit.
> 
> Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine


Behind the paywall. What are they claiming is so mysterious?

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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)

These are getting less and less connected with any part of reality. If this is, in fact, true, I do not see it playing out as they expect. I don't know what would happen but I cannot imagine the US and EU will just fold to Putin's demands.

How ugly it gets…that is a different story.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 15, 2022)

A frightening set of “tweets“. I was looking at some of the other posts as well.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2022)

Someone needs to take him out.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> These are getting less and less connected with any part of reality. If this is, in fact, true, I do not see it playing out as they expect. I don't know what would happen but I cannot imagine the US and EU will just fold to Putin's demands.
> 
> How ugly it gets…that is a different story.



If all these letters are true and this lastest one reflects any plans that Putin and its court are developing for an inmediate future, thinking that this wouldn't trigger NATO in to action (specially given the lackluster performance of the RF) is naive for them:

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## swampyankee (Mar 15, 2022)

"Localized missile strikes" against Poland and the Baltics, which are NATO members is going to elevate "sanctions" to an entirely new, and more violent level, possibly involving enforcing sanctions against Russian warships' existence.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 15, 2022)

Man, if the Russians thought they were getting their asses kicked now ...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Brave Woman!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


She is alive at the moment and out of jail. Appeared in court today and go off with a fine, so far. Brave woman:









Marina Ovsyannikova: Russian journalist tells of 14-hour interrogation


Marina Ovsyannikova has been fined and released after carrying out a protest live on Russian TV.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Behind the paywall. What are they claiming is so mysterious?


Paywalls shouldn’t exist for shared articles.

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## Glider (Mar 15, 2022)

It doesn't look as if the Chinese are playing ball with everything Russia needs

Valery Kudinov, an official at Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, said Russia was in talks to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.

An industry source confirmed to Reuters that Kudinov had been sacked, adding that he lost his job because of his public statements about China. Rosaviatsia declined to comment

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

This is pretty incredible. The Prime Ministers of Slovenia. Poland and the Czech Republic traveled today to
Kyiv by train to meet with Zelensky. Prime Minister's visit to Kyiv | GOV.SI

This is akin to Chamberlain and Daladier flying into Warsaw in late September 1939 to strategize with Poland’s president Mościcki as the Germans and Soviet armies invade.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> It doesn't look as if the Chinese are playing ball with everything Russia needs


China has to tread very carefully these next few weeks. Its very future and place in the world is at stake.

Too many times the leaders of the world powers underestimate the US. The British thought 1776 was going to be a cakewalk, 1812 as well. Spain didn't see its utter defeat coming in 1898. Germany disregarded the threat the US represented in 1917 and 1941, as did the Japanese in arguably the worst military miscalculation of modern times, well until Putin decided to invade Ukraine and enrage and unite the world.

As outsiders we may see a seemingly broken country, beset by civil unrest, failing infrastructure, education and healthcare, greed, vast inequalities of wealth and opportunities, racism, misogyny, mass incarceration, poverty and crime, with a failing economy, a vast in-balance of trade and buried in government debt, much of it foreign held. We see a military that failed in Vietnam, fled from Lebanon after a single terrorist strike, left Iraq unfinished and most recently ran from Afghanistan in an apparent blind panic. China sees this too and thinks their ascendancy is coming. But China, like Britain, Spain, Germany, Japan and now Russia before it may well misunderstand and underestimate the US. The country can pivot like mad from sloth to lion.

This week the US told China that they know Putin asked for aid. China denied it, but the US has essentially told China that we're reading your encrypted communications to Moscow. We know what you're up to. China also knows that once Russia is neutralized the now undistracted US and the now more united West has but one global objective, to contain China. And the world doesn't really need China, sure we'd need to find a new source for cheap consumer goods, and they are a good sink for the West's foreign debt and their cheap prices help to control inflation, but the West has reconfigured the global economy before, they can do it again.

China has a choice now, a fork in the road, be part of the solution or be yet another nation that underestimated the US and get stomped.

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## Jerad (Mar 15, 2022)

New replenishment UAFB (Ukr-Agro-Farm Battalion) (BM-21) 14/03/22

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## Glider (Mar 15, 2022)

You have to say that the NATO AT equipment is really effective

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## SaparotRob (Mar 15, 2022)

NATO equipment definitely looks better!


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> NATO equipment definitely looks better!





Glider said:


> You have to say that the NATO AT equipment is really effective


What the Ukrainians desperately need is counter battery defences. They need to be able to intercept incoming missiles and be able to pinpoint and destroy Russian artillery sites. What does NATO have for these two essential jobs?

In February before the war Israel prohibited the sale of its Iron Dome system to Ukraine. As an anti-missile system there can be few better. It‘s likely too late now to train and set up for this static system.









Israel torpedoed sale of Iron Dome to Ukraine, fearing Russian reaction — report


Kyiv approached US officials last year in bid to buy system, but Israel reportedly vetoed the idea




www.timesofisrael.com

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 15, 2022)

Iron Dome would be perfect

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And the world doesn't really need China, sure we'd need to find a new source for cheap consumer goods



I agree with everything you wrote except for this passage. China has an enormous amount of economic leverage that, while they themselves would suffer, would discombobulate the world's economy even further than our sanctions-package already has. Rare-earth metals for the batteries that power so much of our tech, for instance; you're not going to move production to Vietnam or Bangladesh and call it a day.

Otherwise, your post is spot-on; the Chinese have a choice to make, and either way they choose, will suffer not only a loss of prestige but also an economic blow.

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## GTX (Mar 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Behind the paywall. What are they claiming is so mysterious?


It just looks to be penetration aids on the iskander missiles

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I agree with everything you wrote except for this passage. China has an enormous amount of economic leverage that, while they themselves would suffer, would discombobulate the world's economy even further than our sanctions-package already has. Rare-earth metals for the batteries that power so much of our tech, for instance; you're not going to move production to Vietnam or Bangladesh and call it a day.


True. Good points. A Bretton-Woods global economic reset is best avoided.

But here in Canada we’re sitting on a pile of unexploited rare-earth minerals. In the long term, perhaps 25 years China could be replaced in part by Canadians mines, with batteries produced in the US.






Rare earth elements facts







www.nrcan.gc.ca





There‘s nothing that China supplies that we cannot ultimately get elsewhere, and with less political risk and baggage.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 15, 2022)

A
 Admiral Beez
how about cheap labour and no questions asked?


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## Crimea_River (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But here in Canada we’re sitting on a pile of unexploited rare-earth minerals. In the long term, perhaps 25 years China could be replaced in part by Canadians mines, with batteries produced in the US.



Not if we don't stop selling them.






Sale of Canadian-owned lithium mine was reviewed by national security experts, minister tells committee


An extended review wasn't triggered because 'there was sufficient information to make a determination' at an early stage of the process, François-Philippe…




nationalpost.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2022)

And not if you want them cheap. There is a reason North American and European companies offshore and produce overseas.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Rare earth elements facts
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't know the ins and outs of battery composition., but a 25-year spool-up period doesn't sound promising. As much as we'd prefer otherwise, I think we're stuck with doing business with China, at some level. The shock of cutting China out of the world economy would make our Russian sanctions look like child's-play, and that's if you can get developing nations onboard with your thinking.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't know the ins and outs of battery composition., but a 25-year spool-up period doesn't sound promising. As much as we'd prefer otherwise, I think we're stuck with doing business with China, at some level. The shock of cutting China out of the world economy would make our Russian sanctions look like child's-play, and that's if you can get developing nations onboard with your thinking.



If people are complaining about the side effects of sanctioning Russia they would not survive sanctioning China. China is such a big part of the global economy it is impossible to cut them out now.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If people are complaining about the side effects of sanctioning Russia they would not survive sanctioning China. China is such a big part of the global economy it is impossible to cut them out now.


And that work i think both ways. Besides China has spent years and fortunes on the silk route. Would not be very profitable to throw that away.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 15, 2022)

Maybe it'll put Walmart out of business. Hmmmm.....

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 15, 2022)

Seems like russian comunications on the field are pretty amateur.









A phone relay capture may be the latest of Russia’s communications woes in Ukraine


Sensitive messages have been intercepted since the conflict began.




www.theverge.com

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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> And that work i think both ways. Besides China has spent years and fortunes on the silk route. Would not be very profitable to throw that away.


Agreed


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## gumbyk (Mar 15, 2022)

Chinas walking a tight-rope. They could end up with Russia as a vassal state with the amount of indebtedness they'll have. 
Play their cards tight and they'll profit nicely from the rebuild of Ukraine as well.

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## Jerad (Mar 15, 2022)

Little town Bucha, 20 km north Kyiv 15/03/22. Hidden and abandone techniks RF, is probably from that 60 km column.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 15, 2022)

I do not think China will supply military aid, but they, Iran and, probably to some extent, North Korea, will be the conduit by which Putin will evade the sanctions. I am not holding my breath on any "crippling sanctions" coming China's way in response to any aid and sanction relief they provide. China is a very different story that Russia. Russia's economy is equivalent to the state of Texas. China's is clearly much larger and more influential. Also, our political-ruling class and corporations have enriched and continue to enrich themselves in China. They have the US by the economic shorthairs as well, because China is the single largest holder of and market for US debt. Their manipulation of that debt either by selling it off or refusing to buy more treasury securities would severely damage the value of the dollar and cripple our economy. Now this would certainly hurt them as well, but XI and China are playing the long game and are not subject to the whims of an American electorate. In US politics - its economics, stupid - and will a presidential administration or controlling party really sacrifice themselves politically or destroy our economy to save Ukraine. Money talks, bullshit walks. 

Another poster wrote about how China should not underestimate the US. And I agree to a certain extent, but we have to want to compete. The problem I have with his examples, UK (1776), Spain (1898), Germany (1941), is that in those instances none of those countries had the grip China has on our economy. Not even when the US were English colonies because a good portion of the products being brought into the colonies were smuggled from the Dutch, Spanish, or French Caribbean islands. Remember it was Parliament's attempt to control colonial commerce more effectively that ignited the revolutionary movement.


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## ThomasP (Mar 15, 2022)

I wonder if the Ukrainians could use CLGPs (similar to the US Copperhead for an example) effectively in the conditions they are operating under? For something like the 155mm Copperhead they would need to have heavy artillery available, which would be vulnerable to aircraft and drone strikes. But there are more portable systems, such as heavy mortar projectiles (81mm to 120mm) in service (Merlin, Bussard, Strix, etc).


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## ThomasP (Mar 15, 2022)

As a side note, have any of you noticed that the West's GPS system is in jitter mode? Not the location system types that use cell phone towers, but the hardwired GPS systems that receive their data directly from the GPS satellites. My Garmin is alternating irregularly, but somewhat rapidly, showing me off position by as much as a mile from where I actually am when I am traveling at high speed. It seems to be switching between showing my position off - left/right/short relative to direction of travel - by between .25 and 1 mile, switching about every 1-5 minutes.

I remember reading, in the early 1990s, about the ability of the Government(s) to mess with the GPS system so that it would not be practical to be used by non-friendly targeting systems. I wonder if this is an example?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If people are complaining about the side effects of sanctioning Russia they would not survive sanctioning China. China is such a big part of the global economy it is impossible to cut them out now.


Who’s complaining? We’re seeing a virtual oneupmanship of countries and especially private and public corporations and brands racing to put stronger sanctions than one another. On China I agree, and I want them to get onside, that’s all.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Who’s complaining? We’re seeing a virtual oneupmanship of countries and especially private and public corporations and brands racing to put stronger sanctions than one another. On China I agree, and I want them to get onside, that’s all.



Wake up, people are complaining about gas prices all over the world.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 15, 2022)

They should shut up and buy an EV. 
Or something...


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## fubar57 (Mar 15, 2022)

One year waiting list in B.C. for EV's


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## ThomasP (Mar 15, 2022)

Buy a hybrid. My Toyota 2002 Prius is 20 years old now, with ~576,000 miles on it. It is getting rusty, but still averages ~45 mpg. I have saved ~$20,000 in fuel costs vs what I would have spent if I had bought a conventional Corolla (which is about the same size) at the time. And, although it is difficult to quantify, after subtracting the difference in cost (~$4,000 more for the Prius) I would estimate that the increased reliability of the hybrid has saved me another ~$10,000 at a minimum.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The British thought 1776 was going to be a cakewalk, 1812 as well.



In fairness, I think 1812 was more a case of America underestimating the Canadians.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 15, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> As a side note, have any of you noticed that the West's GPS system is in jitter mode? Not the location system types that use cell phone towers, but the hardwired GPS systems that receive their data directly from the GPS satellites. My Garmin is alternating irregularly, but somewhat rapidly, showing me off position by as much as a mile from where I actually am when I am traveling at high speed. It seems to be switching between showing my position off - left/right/short relative to direction of travel - by between .25 and 1 mile, switching about every 1-5 minutes.
> 
> I remember reading, in the early 1990s, about the ability of the Government(s) to mess with the GPS system so that it would not be practical to be used by non-friendly targeting systems. I wonder if this is an example?


I haven't had that issue at all - during the past couple of weeks I've flown several drones (which are GPS dependent) and flown my club's airplane (which has GPS), no issues and both as satellite dependent. Better check for sunspots!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In fairness, I think 1812 was more a case of America underestimating the Canadians.



It was it think a case of Americans having a weak grasp of strategy in the whole. Who's going to send their army north when the enemy is sailing in from the east?


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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It was it think a case of Americans having a weak grasp of strategy in the whole. Who's going to send their army north when the enemy is sailing in from the east?


That certainly was true. It would have been even worse if we hadn't had the best general in American history up at Chippewa on July 5, 1814. Winfield Scott saved the Army from itself in that campaign.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 15, 2022)

Heavy emphasis on the need to have verification and to see how it plays out long term. This could be like Arras in 1940 where, despite freaking out the German High Command, it was ultimately meaningless.

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## ThomasP (Mar 16, 2022)

On a bit lighter side - Trine Bramsen  from 16 January 2022. Interesting lady.





"Danish F-16 jets arrive in Lithuania to bolster Baltic defence"

"Trine Bramsen - Wikipedia"

Interesting that she was removed from the Defense Minister position on 4 February 2022 and transferred to the post of Transportation Minister. Not saying that there is anything sinister about it, just odd.

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## Stig1207 (Mar 16, 2022)

Not really, she was just out of her depth as Minister of Defence.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

The Baltics need reinforcements from non-US forces. Canada currently has less than a thousand troops there, Operation REASSURANCE - Canada.ca. We should send the Leopard 2 units, for starters.


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## ThomasP (Mar 16, 2022)

Hey Stig1207,

re "Not really, she was just out of her depth as Minister of Defence."

Any reason to think she was out of her depth more than her replacement (Morten Bødskov, whose former post was Mister of Taxation) is?


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 16, 2022)

Stig1207 said:


> Not really, she was just out of her depth as Minister of Defence.


Dont think so. Clearly she has a good set of brains and is not afraid to use it. I mean....

_Following revelations by the DR in May 2021, that Denmark had aided the NSA in spying on ally countries, Bramsen stated that "systematic wiretapping of close allies is unacceptable".[8]​

After two Russian fighter jets flew into Danish airspace in June 2021, Bramsen called it "a deliberate provocation by Russia", further stating the fighters were warned that they were entering Danish airspace. She also warned that "it is a clear sign that they are willing to break every rule" and that "we can't afford to be naive".__[9_​


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## Jerad (Mar 16, 2022)

*A FOURTH Russian general has now been killed, the Ukrainian authorities have said.*
Major-General Oleg Mityaev, 47, died in the storming of Mariupol, along with seven members of an elite SWAT team, in a fresh blow to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.









Putin 'loses FOURTH' general & elite SWAT troops in new blow to Ukraine invasion


A FOURTH Russian general has now been killed, the Ukrainian authorities have said. Major-General Oleg Mityaev, 47, died in the storming of Mariupol, along with seven members of an elite SWAT team, …




www.thesun.co.uk

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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

Dumb and dumber...

_"We only dropped non-locating missiles," Maxim said, meaning what analysts describe as "dumb bombs," unguided munitions which pose a greater risk of causing indiscriminate damage.
"I just used the usual explosive bombs, made of cast iron... the same kind that were used during World War Two with some changes here and there over the years. There are more modern ballistic varieties, of course, but the fact remains that we did not use those," Maxim added.
Last week, US and NATO officials said Russia had relied far more heavily on less sophisticated, so-called "dumb bombs" than it has on its arsenal of precision-guided munitions."_


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/europe/ukraine-russian-prisoners-of-war-intl/index.html

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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

Jerad said:


> *A FOURTH Russian general has now been killed, the Ukrainian authorities have said.*
> Major-General Oleg Mityaev, 47, died in the storming of Mariupol, along with seven members of an elite SWAT team, in a fresh blow to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> ...


According to some sources, it was the combat with the Azov regiment.
Not surprisingly, RF propaganda portrays Azov as "nazis".

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 16, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Buy a hybrid. My Toyota 2002 Prius is 20 years old now, with ~576,000 miles on it. It is getting rusty, but still averages ~45 mpg.


Hybrids have come a long way in 20 years. My Hyundai Plug-in Hybrid Ioniq delivers any where between 60-90 MPG depending on conditions and terrain. It handles like a sports car, stops on a dime, is amazingly peppy for a 4-door sedan on 1.8L, thanks to electric on- demand boost, and has a five speed, dual mode, dual clutch, smart auto transmission that is so smooth it sounds and feels like a constantly variable. On top of that, it comes standard, base model, loaded with features that are options on other brands, and retails <$30K. Hard to find in the Eastern US, as most are consigned to the west coast market. Mid America? Forget it!

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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

Wesley Clark and others.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> According to some sources, it was the combat with the Azov regiment.
> Not surprisingly, RF propaganda portrays Azov as "nazis".


Big chunks of that unit are ideological fascists and their iconography is pure fascism. They are the most problematical unit in the Ukrainian resistance. That said, I can't be too upset if they are 1) not officially sponsored and 2) causing Russian casualties. But they do bear keeping a very close eye on because their very existence gives credence to the Russian propaganda about neo-nazis.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 16, 2022)

On a slightly related note, the Rafales from the French Navy were flying yesterday over Croatia (ruffling some feathers between the president and prime minister, wrt. should the military A/C fly over Zagreb or not).
I've seen 1st hand the E-2 Hawkeye yesterday, for the 1st time in my life.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2022)

That video Zalinsky just shared with Congress shook me up. Those poor children.

Yes, I know its propaganda to rally support for Ukraine, but that does not change the fact that innocent civilians are suffering. Children are suffering and losing their innocence. It breaks my heart. I really hurt inside.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2022)

I so wish we could just go in and wipe the Russian military and Putin from the face of the map.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 16, 2022)

Ukrainia strikes at Kherson AB and destroy múltiple helos.









Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames (Updated)


Satellite images show multiple aircraft were destroyed in a Ukrainian attack on Russia's forward operating near Kherson.




www.thedrive.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2022)

'This is a murder': Zelensky shows Congress graphic video of Russia's assault on Ukraine


During his virtual address to members of Congress on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked U.S. lawmakers to watch a video showing Ukrainian cities before and after Russia's deadly military invasion.




www.yahoo.com


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## Jerad (Mar 16, 2022)

VSU destroyed russians technical in airport Kherson 16\03\2022

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Ukrainia strikes at Kherson AB and destroy múltiple helos.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Looks like the Bayraktar’s work? I don’t think the Ukrainians have artillery or ground launched missiles to hit the airfield with this precision.


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## J_P_C (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like the Bayraktar’s work? I don’t think the Ukrainians have artillery or ground launched missiles to hit the airfield with this precision.


for sure not - demages are far too big - i would say airstrike or heavy artillery barrage, possible MLRS

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> for sure not - demages are far too big - i would say airstrike or heavy artillery barrage, possible MLRS


Agreed


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## GrauGeist (Mar 16, 2022)

The article suggested that Ukraine Naval Infantry used MLRS in the attack.


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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Big chunks of that unit are ideological fascists and their iconography is pure fascism. They are the most problematical unit in the Ukrainian resistance. That said, I can't be too upset if they are 1) not officially sponsored and 2) causing Russian casualties. But they do bear keeping a very close eye on because their very existence gives credence to the Russian propaganda about neo-nazis.


The first two sentences are just another repeat of old and debunked myths.
They are part of the National Guard since November 2014. So, yes, they are "officially sponsored" by us in Ukraine, citizens and taxpayers.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 16, 2022)

Jerad said:


> VSU destroyed russians technical in airport Kherson 16\03\2022



Who recorded and shared that video? Looks like ukrainians. If so, that mean that the airport is in ukrainians hands once again.

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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> On a slightly related note, the Rafales from the French Navy were flying yesterday over Croatia (ruffling some feathers between the president and prime minister, wrt. should the military A/C fly over Zagreb or not).
> I've seen 1st hand the E-2 Hawkeye yesterday, for the 1st time in my life.


Hopefully, next time they do intercept another 40-year-old flying relic...

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## Dimlee (Mar 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Who recorded and shared that video? Looks like ukrainians. If so, that mean that the airport is in ukrainians hands once again.


Recorded by Russian serviceman.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The article suggested that Ukraine Naval Infantry used MLRS in the attack.


Excellent. I’ve always liked the Katyusha MLRS - those things must have terrified the Germans. What modern equivalent do the Ukrainians have today?


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## J_P_C (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Excellent. I’ve always liked the Katyusha MLRS - those things must have terrified the Germans. What modern equivalent do the Ukrainians have today?


BM-21, BM-27 i'm not sure if Ukraine combat tractors units also found couple of BM-30 but yesterday i've seen movie sshowing one of them towing trailer fully loaded with crates of BM-30s missiles - frshly donated by russian nation

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> BM-21, BM-27 i'm not sure if Ukraine combat tractors units also found couple of BM-30 but yesterday i've seen movie sshowing one of them towing trailer fully loaded with crates of BM-30s missiles - frshly donated by russian nation


Nice. It’s amazing that the Russian airforce or recon satellites didn’t spot the MLRS moving into position and neutralize them. Are the Russian recon fatalities playing any role here? I assume the US recon sats are feeding the Ukrainians with real time targeting info for strikes like this one. Though a drone would do the trick.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. It’s amazing that the Russian airforce or recon satellites didn’t spot the MLRS moving into position and neutralize them. Are the Russian recon fatalities playing any role here? I assume the US recon sats are feeding the Ukrainians with real time targeting info for strikes like this one. Though a drone would do the trick.


Doing it properly would require both. You start with the sat imagery that gives you your baseline for planning, then just prior to the strike you verify with drones (or other recon, classically, aerial recon was used for this) that the targets are still in place so that you avoid the problem the initial Russian strikes had of hitting "Dantooine" long after the Rebels have left to steal from classic literature

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## GrauGeist (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Excellent. I’ve always liked the Katyusha MLRS - those things must have terrified the Germans. What modern equivalent do the Ukrainians have today?


The German's Nebelwerfer weapons were just as terrifying.

Allied troops called them a "screaming mimi" because of the sound they made when they were inbound.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

Read the whole thread.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Read the whole thread.




Bastards


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> just prior to the strike you verify that the targets are still in place…


Something the Japanese forgot or intentionally omitted at Pearl Harbour.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Something the Japanese forgot or intentionally omitted at Pearl Harbour.


The IJN's scout planes reported the carriers weren't at Pearl when they overflew the harbor at 6:30 that morning.

Since the carriers weren't spotted in the vicinity they continued as planned.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Hopefully, next time they do intercept another 40-year-old flying relic...


To which "relic" are you referring, the drone, the fighter, or the AWACS? E2 is the oldest platform of the three. They were already in service when I joined USN 52 years ago.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

More proof that Xi is tired of Putin's shit.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> More proof that Xi is tired of Putin's shit.



The true mark of a superpower, having your cake and eating it too! A presence on both sides of the fence.

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## gumbyk (Mar 16, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> The true mark of a superpower, having your cake and eating it too! A presence on both sides of the fence.


China playing the long game - already looking to the rebuild. No matter what the outcome, they'll stand to win in this.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 16, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> China playing the long game - already looking to the rebuild. No matter what the outcome, they'll stand to win in this.


Indeed. Ukraine is going to need financing, construction and rebuilding. Three things China can provide aplenty whilst moving Ukraine into their sphere. Now if Xi (eleven?) flies into Kiyv next week I’ll eat my hat!

They‘ve chatted before on bilateral mega projects.









New China-Ukraine Direct Train Route Indicative Of Europe's Changing Geopolitical Dynamics - Silk Road Briefing


Belarus & Lithuania Create An Opening For Ukraine But Practical Difficulties Remain Earlier this year, President Xi Jinping of China, and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky discussed strengthening infrastructure connectivity and signed off an agreement to do so. Zelensky stated that Ukraine could...



www.silkroadbriefing.com

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## gumbyk (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed. Ukraine is going to need financing, construction and rebuilding. Three things China can provide aplenty whilst moving Ukraine into their sphere. Now if Xi (eleven?) flies into Kiyv next week I’ll eat my hat!
> 
> They‘ve chatted before on bilateral mega projects.
> 
> ...


Russia is going to need financing as well.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> China playing the long game - already looking to the rebuild. No matter what the outcome, they'll stand to win in this.


Though they have been reminded that they are better off economically leaving the status quo alone with regards to the Republic of Taiwan...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed. Ukraine is going to need financing, construction and rebuilding. Three things China can provide aplenty whilst moving Ukraine into their sphere. Now if Xi (eleven?) flies into Kiyv next week I’ll eat my hat!
> 
> They‘ve chatted before on bilateral mega projects.
> 
> ...



It rather depends on whether Ukraine remembers who stood by them during the crisis and who just waved from the sidelines...and, while the US and Europe aren't involved in the actual fighting, they are at least supporting as much as humanly possible, including applying substantial financial pressure on Russia. China, meanwhile, is doing nothing. If I were Ukrainian, I wouldn't be cutting ANY deals with Beijing in the near future.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It rather depends on whether Ukraine remembers who stood by them during the crisis and who just waved from the sidelines...and, while the US and Europe aren't involved in the actual fighting, they are at least supporting as much as humanly possible, including applying substantial financial pressure on Russia. China, meanwhile, is doing nothing. If I were Ukrainian, I wouldn't be cutting ANY deals with Beijing in the near future.


Unless you can use it to put the screws on Moscow. Still, be very cautious...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Unless you can use it to put the screws on Moscow. Still, be very cautious...



Hopefully, the US and EU will be savvy and if, as we all hope, Putin gets deposed, they come in and offer help to rebuild the economy and make real, tangible progress to better integrate Russia into the international community. For too long, Russia has been influenced by ex-Cold War warriors who want to rebuild the glory days. Perhaps this crisis may open the door for a rapprochement between Russia and the West that regains the opportunities we lost, or thoughtlessly surrendered, after the break-up of the USSR. 

I did say I was an optimist...!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)

Meanwhile...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 16, 2022)

God bless that grandmother - you know that she's seen far more than her share of bullshit in her lifetime.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Something the Japanese forgot or intentionally omitted at Pearl Harbour.



Their drones had a launch issue on one critical search leg ...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 16, 2022)

Scout #4 was late launching off of Tone.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> God bless that grandmother



I echo your blessing. The words of Dickens come to mind:

Scrooge: "Is there a peculiar flavour in what you sprinkle from your torch?"

Spirit of Christmas Present: "There is. My own."

Scrooge: "Would it apply to any kind of dinner on this day?"

Spirit of Christmas Present: "To any kindly given. To a poor one most."

Scrooge: "Why to a poor one most?"

Spirit of Christmas Present: "Because it needs it most."

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Their drones had a launch issue on one critical search leg ...


wasn't that Midway?


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 16, 2022)

Forget it, he's rolling.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 16, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 16, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> wasn't that Midway?

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Forget it, he's rolling.


wasn't that the Germans?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 16, 2022)

Pretty insightful read on the current situation by John Simpson:









Ukraine: Putin will search for a way to save face


What might Putin want, to be able to come out of the war looking good in the eyes of Russia's majority?



www.bbc.com

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

I was reading about Finland and this is a good way of creating an out.

Ukraine says it won't join NATO or the EU but keeps its independence.

Russia keeps Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk.

So both sides have a win and can pretend to be happy and the war stops.

This could be the only possible out in which both sides can live with. Not a good or agreeable out but an out.

Short term or long term, this is a peace treaty which can work. And would be better than a bitter insurgency or Russia launching nuclear weapons.

Not a case of whether I agree with this or not but it stops the bullets flying.

Ukraine can't win and Russia needs an out.

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## JDCAVE (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> I was reading about Finland and this is a good way of creating an out.
> 
> Ukraine says it won't join NATO or the EU but keeps its independence.
> 
> ...


Here’s an out for Russia. A bit radical perhaps. Put a price of $250,000,000 on Putin’s head. Then watch how quickly he’d be taken out.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

At this point, I don't think Russia really has an "out".
Their seizure of Crimea and subversion of the Donbass is wrong.
Their attack of the Ukraine proper is wrong.
The only recourse for Russia is to publicly hang and abuse the corpse of Putin, restore the Ukraine's borders to pre-2014 boundaries and pay restitution to the Ukraine.

Period.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> At this point, I don't think Russia really has an "out".
> Their seizure of Crimea and subversion of the Donbass is wrong.
> Their attack of the Ukraine proper is wrong.
> The only recourse for Russia is to publicly hang and abuse the corpse of Putin, restore the Ukraine's borders to pre-2014 boundaries and pay restitution to the Ukraine.
> ...



While I would prefer this “out”, I think it will be something closer to The Baskets “out.”

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

I'm willing to bet that the concession game has been over played by Putin.

The mass targeting of civilians has turned this into a situation where it'll boil down to all or nothing.

Collateral damage is one thing, but if you ever want to inspire a nation to fight to the end, deliberately murder it's civilians.

A clear lesson Putin missed from WWII...

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> While I would prefer this “out”, I think it will be something closer to The Baskets “out.”


And, in a few years, the Russians orchestrate another "liberation movement" in another strategic border area. Nibble, nibble.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

The war has to stop.
Regardless.
Doesn't matter why and where or what.
Put Russia against the wall and the nukes will fly.
A long drawn out insurgency is going to help Ukraine how?

Is Ukraine about to invade Moscow?

It's no longer about winning or losing.

Ukraine is losing and Russia is losing. It is a chance to end this and rebuild and see what transpires in time.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And, in a few years, the Russians orchestrate another "liberation movement" in another strategic border area. Nibble, nibble.



Agreed.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The war has to stop.
> Regardless.
> Doesn't matter why and where or what.
> Put Russia against the wall and the nukes will fly.
> ...


This "nukes will fly" is a bit dramatic, really.

Putin is a master of the saber-rattling tactic.

No, nukes won't fly. His Imperial Majesty is a narcissist and needs accolades for his self image.
If he launches nukes, he'll unleash hell on earth and get an avalanche of the sun on his head. Then who will be left to admire his bare-chested abs?

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## Stig1207 (Mar 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Stig1207,
> 
> re "Not really, she was just out of her depth as Minister of Defence."
> 
> Any reason to think she was out of her depth more than her replacement (Morten Bødskov, whose former post was Mister of Taxation) is?



Time will tell , but hopefully he will handle the job better than Bramsen. She had lost the confidence of the armed forces and the secret services.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

The war has to end.
Find the path of least resistance and sign a peace treaty that both sides can live with.

Talk of 2014 borders or hanging Putin are irrelevant.

It's called Realpolitik. 

Even the Japanese surrender and those boys were absolutely going for the one way ticket to Yasukuni.

I will give you the only two options available to end the war. Invade Moscow or sign a peace treaty. 

Nonsense started this war and nonsense is not going to stop it.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> If I were Ukrainian, I wouldn't be cutting ANY deals with Beijing in the near future.


IDK, if China offers several thousand of GP6 laser-guided 155 mm artillery projectiles and the means to fire and guide them I expect they’d say yes please.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Their drones had a launch issue on one critical search leg ...





SaparotRob said:


> Scout #4 was late launching off of Tone.


Right story, wrong battle. That was the Midway scenario. Three days shy of six months later.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Stig1207,
> 
> re "Not really, she was just out of her depth as Minister of Defence."


That’s an issue for us here in Canada as well. Our MoD was newly appointed to focus primarily on #metoo sexual misconduct and gender/ethnicity representation issues.

Meanwhile the programs to replace the 1980-90s era CF-18 fighters, CP-140 Aurora ASW/patrol aircraft and the Halifax class frigates show little to no substantive progress. On the latter, the first Type 26 isn’t expected to be laid down until 2024 or 2025, with the first entering service in the early 2030s, forty years after the first Halifax class entered service in 1992. Ridiculous.

And now that everyone in NATO is expanding their budgets and likely to rush to Lockheed-Martin to sign up for F-35s it will be well into the 2030s before Canada can field a complete squadron even if they were to commit tomorrow, fifty years after the CF-18 entered RCAF service in 1982!


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## J_P_C (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, if China offers several thousand of GP6 laser-guided 155 mm artillery projectiles and the means to fire and guide them I expect they’d say yes please.


ukraine is not using 155mm artillery pieces at all


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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

This is very very real.

Probably 2 dead guys in this so you warned.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 17, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> ukraine is not using 155mm artillery pieces at all


No, they use 122 & 152 FSU standard artillery. The Chinese, meanwhile, do make a 152mm CLGP that would be very helpful to Ukrainian gunners.









Chinese GP1 series guided artillery projectiles in Libya - Armament Research Services (ARES)


Yuri Lyamin with N.R. Jenzen-Jones Images shared to social media channels in early November show the remnants of a precision guided artillery projectile documented in Warshafana, Libya. According to the Libya Times, these projectiles were fired against Warshafana by forces of Zintan Military...



armamentresearch.com

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## Peter Gunn (Mar 17, 2022)

So I'm guessing those are laser guided artillery shells? Sure put a kink in their day whatever they were using.

Well, that's one vehicle the "liberators" won't be using again anytime soon.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2022)

History as taught us well that you cannot reason with a madman nor expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable, you can pacify him today but he'll be back tomorrow. I do not understand why we should expect Ukraine to pay the same price Poland did in the 40's when the West abandoned them to the Soviets. There still appears to be reasonable people within the Russian Government and Military that would stand up to Putin if he ordered Nukes but that might not be the case a year from now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Right story, wrong battle. That was the Midway scenario. Three days shy of six months later.



Like I explained already in post 2220, it is a joke -- after all, the Japanese didn't have drones at that time!

Jokes, like frogs, rarely survive dissection. Hmph.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

_The Russian-held Kherson International Airport and Air Base near the southern Ukrainian port city has successfully been struck by Ukrainian forces, according to a number of satellite images.

The Ukrainian attack on Tuesday appears to have destroyed a number of Russian helicopters, with images obtained by Planet Labs PBC showing a cloud of thick, black smoke rising from burning helicopters.

The first image shown above [sic]—the one in color—was taken at 1:35 p.m. local time on March 15, 2022.

The satellite images appear to show at least three helicopters on fire, as well as several vehicles. At a pad further away, other helicopters appeared to have been damaged by an earlier strike.

It is not known what kind of weapons Ukrainian armed forces used for their attack.

Drone footage shared on Twitter and heat maps used by NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System—usually used to track forest fires—confirm multiple blazes at the Russian-occupied dual-use airfield.

Ukrainian armed forces have previously struck the airfield, with officials claiming to have destroyed 30 Russian helicopters in an attack using artillery rockets on March 7. However, satellite images at the time didn't show evidence of such large-scale damage._















Ukraine Counter Offensive Destroys Multiple Russian Helicopters


The full extent of the damage to Russian military equipment at Kherson airbase has not yet been confirmed nor is it known what kind of weapons Ukrainian armed forces used for their attack.




www.newsweek.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

_Ukraine said Wednesday it has launched a counteroffensive against Russian forces encroaching on its capital, Kyiv, and other key cities hours before President Volodymyr Zelensky is due to address Congress about the war in his country.

Ukrainian forces also said they pressed an offensive south and east of the southern port of Mykolaiv, moving in the direction of Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital occupied by Russia since the war began Feb. 24. Ukraine said it carried out an airstrike on the Kherson airport, which is now a Russian air base, and satellite imagery of the tarmac showed seven destroyed or damaged Russian helicopters, some of them engulfed in flames. Kyiv also said it shot down two Russian Su-30SM jets over the Black Sea off Odessa.

Moscow has largely not commented on combat losses and said its campaign was progressing.

[...]

President Biden said Wednesday the U.S. would send an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, amounting to a total of $1 billion in such assistance over the past week.

[...]

In the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, a Russian bomb destroyed the city’s main drama theater where hundreds of residents had taken refuge from shelling, city officials said. A bomb shelter under the theater was blocked by rubble, and the city hadn’t yet counted casualties, officials said._









Ukraine Mounts Counteroffensive to Drive Russians Back From Kyiv, Key Cities


Kyiv’s forces appeared to counterattack in the outlying towns of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, while Ukraine said it carried out an airstrike on the Kherson airport, which is now a Russian air base.




www.wsj.com





Regarding the last paragraph, this is the theater in a pre-war picture [ETA -- this pic was taken after the invasion started -- Thump]. Note the open spaces around it and the few other buildings nearby. I've read as well that the building was clearly marked with large letters on each end of the building which read "CHILDREN". If this is correct, this would seem by far to be the worst of the war crimes committed by Russian forces.

ETA: Apparently this _is_ true; this is the picture I had seen earlier, and running the Cyrillic through a translator does give the result, "children".






There needs to be a Nuremberg-style trial set up in the Hague devoted exclusively to the Russian war crimes.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

The building is clearly marked. Putin needs to see the inside of a court room. A .38 afterwards is also justified.

On a positive note, there are reports of people emerging from the building alive.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Ukraine v. Russia: Court ruling against Putin could 'undermine his power'


The International Court of Justice will address Ukraine’s allegations on Wednesday that Russia concocted false claims of genocide to justify waging war on the former member of the Soviet Union.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Ukraine publishes video of artillery barrage on Russian military post near Kyiv, set to AC/DC's 'Highway to Hell'


The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Wednesday his artillery "set up a highway to hell" for Russian forces.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Oh boo fucking hoo. Poor him. He does not know how to live? Now you know how the majority of the world lives. Yet he still has a $3,300 a month allowance allowed by the sanctions. Pathetic piece of shit.









A billionaire Russian oligarch says he doesn't know how to live 3 weeks after being hit with sanctions


Mikhail Fridman has an allowance of $3,300 per month and has to apply for a license to the UK government to spend money, he told Bloomberg.




www.businessinsider.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

I can't help but believe there will be no justice from this. It'll probably go the way The Basket said it will. Russia keeps Crimea and the two Russia puppet states. The world isn't incinerated. The average Russian suffers and Putin probably goes out like Stalin. 
I really hope I'm wrong.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I can't help but believe there will be no justice from this. It'll probably go the way The Basket said it will. Russia keeps Crimea and the two Russia puppet states. The world isn't incinerated. The average Russian suffers and Putin probably goes out like Stalin.
> I really hope I'm wrong.



For there to be justice either the Russian people have to stand up and hand over Putin, or a Seal Team has to go in and capture him (not happening). 

The ball is in your court Russian citizens…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

130 survivors so far…









Blinken joins Biden in accusing Russia of war crimes; 21 people killed by rockets: March 17 recap


Secretary of State Antony Blinken became the second high-level U.S. official in two days to accuse Russia of war crimes. Thursday's recap.




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

I'm kinda' wanting Shin Bet to take out the Czar.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ukraine publishes video of artillery barrage on Russian military post near Kyiv, set to AC/DC's 'Highway to Hell'
> 
> 
> The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Wednesday his artillery "set up a highway to hell" for Russian forces.
> ...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Ukraine killed a Russian general after he made an unsecured call that gave away his location, report says


A large number of senior Russian military officers are being killed in Ukraine, embarrassing losses which appeared to have hampered the invasion.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates


Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates




www.yahoo.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

"The UK will deploy a Sky Sabre Air Defence System to Poland and 100 personnel to operate it." 

I hope it is also a part of the "backfilling".

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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> To which "relic" are you referring, the drone, the fighter, or the AWACS? E2 is the oldest platform of the three. They were already in service when I joined USN 52 years ago.


I mean Tu-141 that recently penetrated NATO airspace undetected and crashed in Croatia.


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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, if China offers several thousand of GP6 laser-guided 155 mm artillery projectiles and the means to fire and guide them I expect they’d say yes please.


I'd say: Comrade Xi, please deploy those 155mm units close to the RF's border in broad daylight. The more the better. I'm sure Ukraine could pay for fuel and food rations while the units are there.
In the meantime, in many of the intercepted phone conversations of Russian soldiers, geographical names as Ussuriysk, Partizansk, Khabarovsk are mentioned. And Japan just noticed some ships leaving Russian Far East:








Russian ships seen in Japan strait may be carrying troops to Ukraine


Pictures of the amphibious transports, typically used for landing expeditionary forces ashore, showed what appeared to be military trucks loaded onto the deck of one of the vessels.




www.japantimes.co.jp

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh boo fucking hoo. Poor him. He does not know how to live? Now you know how the majority of the world lives. Yet he still has a $3,300 a month allowance allowed by the sanctions. Pathetic piece of shit.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


By the way, he was born and grew up in Lviv, Ukraine.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 17, 2022)

It is interesting that the title of the thread seems to be in a way, prophetic.

Humpty seems to be in too many pieces to be put back together - or at least someone forgot the glue.

It also seems that humpties innards shot out and hit king Vlad - leaving him with the obvious on his face.
It will get worse for him as the yolk starts to go off as the sun comes up.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Japan says it spotted Russian amphibious ships heading toward Europe


Japan said on Thursday it spotted four Russian amphibious ships in waters close to its shores on Wednesday. The Japanese military said the four ships sailed in the Tsuruga Strait that separates Japan's Honshu island and Hokkaido island, an unusual move for Russia, Reuters reported.The ships are...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Talk of “cleansing”…









Putin says pro-Western Russians are 'scum and traitors' who need to be removed from society


Putin says pro-Western Russians are 'scum and traitors' who need to be removed from society




www.yahoo.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Talk of “cleansing”…
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The first step in extermination is dehumanization, hence Putin's comparison of dissidents to "midge(s)".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The first step in extermination is dehumanization, hence Putin's comparison of dissidents to "midge(s)".



Looking more and more like Hitler every day. Let’s hope he is holed up in a bunker somewhere pulling what little hair he has left out, with a chambered round at the ready.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

Russia and Ukraine are in the same position of everything going horribly wrong.

And it could go even more horribly wronger.

So it behoves both sides to get peace now while there is still something to deal for.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

Tank go bang

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Looking more and more like Hitler every day. Let’s hope he is holed up in a bunker somewhere pulling what little hair he has left out, with a chambered round at the ready.



This entire ploy and invasion are pages ripped out of Hitler's playbook -- complaining about imagined repression of an ethnic minority, claiming that they need protection, and using that to justify horrific crimes. Appealing to "patriotism" vs "traitors", the whole Mafioso "nice country you got there, it'd be a shame if something happened to it" approach -- we need only read history from the late 1930s to see many striking parallels.

I hope he eats his nine grams before and not after he starts persecuting internal dissidents even more viciously. As used to be a legal defense against murder charges here in Tejas, "He needed killin'." That is so very true in this case. The world will be a better place when he dies.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

My goodness. What ever hit that tank played for keeps.

Absolutely creamed it.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 17, 2022)

Why are these tanks operating individually, without infantry support?

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## WARSPITER (Mar 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Why are these tanks operating individually, without infantry support?


That is a really interesting point.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> My goodness. What ever hit that tank played for keeps.
> 
> Absolutely creamed it.



Looks like a MANPAT in direct-fire mode to me. Little smoke-trail from the tank's port side immediately before the kill looks like an anti-missile round outbound and then wham. And it clearly achieved full penetration.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Why are these tanks operating individually, without infantry support?



Perhaps this speaks again to the poor state of training we've read plenty about already?


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## WARSPITER (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Perhaps this speaks again to the poor state of training we've read plenty about already?


It does seem that way. Tanks aren't the best option for street fighting - not without infantry support anyway.

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## J_P_C (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> My goodness. What ever hit that tank played for keeps.
> 
> Absolutely creamed it.


mine - side acting - there is trace at the right side of the tank (left side of the picture)

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2022)

I didn't even see whatever hit it fire, it was just tank them boom.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Russia and Ukraine are in the same position of everything going horribly wrong.
> 
> And it could go even more horribly wronger.
> 
> So it behoves both sides to get peace now while there is still something to deal for.


So what are the options for peace?

So far, Russia wants to keep Crimea and the Donbass. He also wants a demilitarized Ukraine. He wants NATO out of Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria as well as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...most likely Poland, too.

Another point of consideration, is that NOTHING that Putin agrees to, is honored.

So literally any appeasement given to Russia at this point, allows Russia to regroup, consolidate his forces (aling with purging low performers) and then most likely move into Moldova (because there is a small ethnic Russian population that needs saving) as well as most likely finish it's reclamation of Georgia, which Russia took 20% of in 2008 and has yet to honor most of it's cease-fire agreements.

Putin, like Hitler and Stalin, cannot be bargained with. They were all megalomaniacs bent on their own desires.
None were honorable, none were to be trusted and none of the lot gave a single damn about the value of human life.

The only choice Putin should be given, is what caliber of bullet he wants between his eyes...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This entire ploy and invasion are pages ripped out of Hitler's playbook -- complaining about imagined repression of an ethnic minority, claiming that they need protection, and using that to justify horrific crimes. Appealing to "patriotism" vs "traitors", the whole Mafioso "nice country you got there, it'd be a shame if something happened to it" approach -- we need only read history from the late 1930s to see many striking parallels.
> 
> I hope he eats his nine grams before and not after he starts persecuting internal dissidents even more viciously. As used to be a legal defense against murder charges here in Tejas, "He needed killin'." That is so very true in this case. The world will be a better place when he dies.


I would prefer the Khaddafy exit for Uncle Vlad. I understand he doesn't want to wind up like Mussolini either.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So what are the options for peace?
> 
> So far, Russia wants to keep Crimea and the Donbass. He also wants a demilitarized Ukraine. He wants NATO out of Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria as well as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...most likely Poland, too.
> 
> ...


I'm liking swinging from a lamppost more and more.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

I suspect that if Putin is killed (assuming that's even possible), Russia will descend into civil war.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So what are the options for peace?
> 
> So far, Russia wants to keep Crimea and the Donbass. He also wants a demilitarized Ukraine. He wants NATO out of Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria as well as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...most likely Poland, too.
> 
> ...



Agreed. Anything else is Neville Chamberlainisque…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect that if Putin is killed, Russia will descend into civil war.



I think so as well. Regardless we are witnessing serious implications to Russian and global history.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think so as well. Regardless we are witnessing serious implications to Russian and global history.



If nothing else, Putin has done two things for the world outside Ukraine:

1) given NATO another 4 or 5 decades of life, and

2) put China on notice that its retaking of Taiwan will probably not be in accordance with the schedule they would like to see.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. Anything else is Neville Chamberlainisque…


Indeed - *if* the League of Nations had lived up to their mission and leaned on Hitler when he attempted to annex the Sudentenland (shades of Donbass anyone?), then the dominoes of Czechslovakia, Austria and Poland would not have fallen.

You do not try to give a rabid dog hugs and kisses and hope all is well ever after...

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## Denniss (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Japan says it spotted Russian amphibious ships heading toward Europe
> 
> 
> Japan said on Thursday it spotted four Russian amphibious ships in waters close to its shores on Wednesday. The Japanese military said the four ships sailed in the Tsuruga Strait that separates Japan's Honshu island and Hokkaido island, an unusual move for Russia, Reuters reported.The ships are...
> ...


Would be interesting to know how they wanna reach russian soil. Shipping to St Petersburg and then all the way down to Ukraine? To Syria then somehow airlift them? They can't get into Black Sea unless they want to drag Turkey into the war on Ukraine's side.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Japan says it spotted Russian amphibious ships heading toward Europe
> 
> 
> Japan said on Thursday it spotted four Russian amphibious ships in waters close to its shores on Wednesday. The Japanese military said the four ships sailed in the Tsuruga Strait that separates Japan's Honshu island and Hokkaido island, an unusual move for Russia, Reuters reported.The ships are...
> ...


As of 28 February, Turkey closed the Bosphorus to all warships except those based in the Black Sea in accordance to the Montreaux Convention.

So not sure what good any of those ships (and cargo) will do, if they can't reach the Black Sea.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

It’s definitely an interesting development


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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

Wonder if the Russian Navy will try and test Turkey's authority...

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

The options for peace are dependent on what the options are.

Now you may be 100% right. I maybe 100% wrong.

Maybe Putin cannot be trusted but there is now a difference. Putin is in a jam. So it's now no longer his word but his circumstances that are dictating the rules.

He is now in a very weak position so getting a peace treaty is possible. So the West must capitalize on this weak position to get the best deal.

If you get 5 years peace then that is something.

You must remember as long as the war goes on more and more civilians will be killed. Going down in flames should not be on the table. I don't really care if this may be weak sauce. 

Hitler wanted to go down in flames and that's what he did. Doenitz, oddly, didn't want to go down with the ship and signed what he could to stop the war.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2022)

It's not like the Russians have been brilliant in their logistics to begin with.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The options for peace are dependent on what the options are.
> 
> Now you may be 100% right. I maybe 100% wrong.
> 
> ...



Only Putin getting out on favorable terms only kicks the can down the road. He will learn fron this, correct his problems, and come back again even stronger and more dangerous. That is why appeasement does not work.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

> Slovakia’s defense minister on Thursday said the country would “immediately” provide its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine if it’s guaranteed a “proper replacement” in the near term.
> 
> Jaroslav Nad’ said Slovakia is in discussions with the United States and other allies on the possibility of deploying its S-300s to Ukraine to help the embattled country in its fight against invading Russian forces. But the agreement hinges on Bratislava receiving a stand-in system for its air defenses.
> 
> ...











Slovakia says it would give Ukraine its air defense systems if it gets ‘proper replacement’


Slovakia’s defense minister on Thursday said the country would “immediately” provide its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine if it’s guaranteed a “proper replacement” in the near term. Jarosla…




thehill.com





How many Patriot batteries do we have in Germany? Enough to provide loaners until a more-permanent replacement can be provided? The Greeks and Bulgarians also field the S-300, perhaps they could provide some loaners in addition or instead of the Patriots, which would obviously require American manning?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Hitler wanted to go down in flames and that's what he did. Doenitz, oddly, didn't want to go down with the ship and signed what he could to stop the war.



Only after Hitler was gone…


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Only Putin getting out on favorable terms only kicks the can down the road. He will learn fron this, correct his problems, and come back again even stronger and more dangerous. That is why appeasement does not work.



Appeasement almost always emboldens, rather than deters, future aggression. If nothing else, the 30s taught us that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Appeasement almost always embolden, rather than deters, future aggression. If nothing else, the 30s taught us that.



I give them the benefit of the doubt for the 30s. They had just come out of WW1 and hind sight is always 20/20. Today we have no excuse though. We have Chamberlain to thank for teaching us what not to do.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I give them the benefit of the doubt for the 30s. They had just come out of WW1 and hind sight is always 20/20. Today we have no excuse though. We have Chamberlain to thank for teaching us what not to do.



Right, they were feeling their way through those tough times, but the one great thing about hindsight is that it is the basis for learning. Only fools ignore hindsight in more modern times, because history always has something to teach us.

That's why the apparent lack of institutional memory in the Russian army is to me so baffling.

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## Glider (Mar 17, 2022)

I have to be honest I did like this


Russian state propagandists laugh at new 'correspondent' Tucker Carlson in Colbert sendup

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> I have to be honest I did like this
> 
> 
> Russian state propagandists laugh at new 'correspondent' Tucker Carlson in Colbert sendup



Tucker Carlson is a disgrace. He is Putin’s employee of the month.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Blinken joins Biden in accusing Russia of war crimes; 21 people killed by rockets: March 17 recap


Secretary of State Antony Blinken became the second high-level U.S. official in two days to accuse Russia of war crimes. Thursday's recap.




www.yahoo.com


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Tucker Carlson is a disgrace. He is Putin’s employee of the month.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

If there are Russian’s here on this forum, and you still have access to non-state sponsored internet, know that I do not blame you for this. You are not at fault, and you are welcome and safe here on this forum. This is one man’s war only.

Despite what your govt. tells you, you must know, just like the Germans in 1939 you are on the wrong side of history, justice, and right and wrong. Your sons, husbands, and fathers will continue to come home in bags (even if you succeed in taking Ukraine). However, innocent civilians are dying and suffering too. Do not listen to your govt. lies and propaganda.

Look at these pictures.

Show these pictures to your friends and family.
































This is the truth…

Take back your country, and hold this man accountable:

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## J_P_C (Mar 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I didn't even see whatever hit it fire, it was just tank them boom.

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## J_P_C (Mar 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I didn't even see whatever hit it fire, it was just tank them boom.


you shouldn't - it was mine - per definition should be rather barely visible

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2022)

That makes a lot more sense, I was under the impression it was a rocket, thanks!

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

I got a chuckle out of this - I guess the same way they are putting Ukraine in their place!









Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place


LONDON (Reuters) -Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart. Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now...




www.yahoo.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

But yet...









Kremlin: many people in Russia are behaving like traitors


LONDON (Reuters) -The Kremlin said on Thursday that many people in Russia were showing themselves to be "traitors" and pointed to those who were resigning from their jobs and leaving the country. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made the comments a day after President Vladimir Putin delivered...




news.yahoo.com

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## Jerad (Mar 17, 2022)

ZSU hit on technics (URAL) with soldiers RF. Kharkiv. 16.03.2022
.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect that if Putin is killed (assuming that's even possible), Russia will descend into civil war.


Yikes! Dat ain't good.


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## Marcel (Mar 17, 2022)

All weapons


Thumpalumpacus said:


> If nothing else, Putin has done two things for the world outside Ukraine:
> 
> 1) given NATO another 4 or 5 decades of life, and
> 
> 2) put China on notice that its retaking of Taiwan will probably not be in accordance with the schedule they would like to see.


Not to mention he brought the countries of the EU together more than ever.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket
, while I may not agree with you that Ukraine’s best interest is to concede its disputed territories and guarantee neutrality as Putin will spin this as total victory and he will come back for the rest in the future, I do think it is the likely scenario. I think in the end Ukraine and Russia will reach this agreement.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Basket
> , while I may not agree with you that Ukraine’s best interest is to concede its disputed territories and guarantee neutrality as Putin will spin this as total victory and he will come back for the rest in the future, I do think it is the likely scenario. I think in the end Ukraine and Russia will reach this agreement.


Reality sucks.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> That is a really interesting point.


Or air support? Who the hell drives a single tank down a road without air cover and infantry support? And why just one tank? The Russians should have hundreds. Where was this one tank going? What possible mission could it have?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If nothing else, Putin has done two things for the world outside Ukraine:
> 
> 1) given NATO another 4 or 5 decades of life, and
> 
> 2) put China on notice that its retaking of Taiwan will probably not be in accordance with the schedule they would like to see.


And 3) made sure that the whole world is now aware of Ukraine as a separate, independent nation with its own language, culture, government and people. Putin has essentially put Ukraine on the map.

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## The Basket (Mar 17, 2022)

Reality doesn't suck, bro. It's good.

It's the crazy loons who believe crazy loons that are the problem.

It's the Putins of the world who have big dreams and big egos that drive the nonsense.

Sane, rational people don't do silly things.

Apart from the British Empire....of course. Biggest empire the world has ever seen, old boy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Basket
> , while I may not agree with you that Ukraine’s best interest is to concede its disputed territories and guarantee neutrality as Putin will spin this as total victory and he will come back for the rest in the future, I do think it is the likely scenario. I think in the end Ukraine and Russia will reach this agreement.



I can see them ceding Crimea. Not so sure about the Donbas.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And why just one tank? The Russians should have hundreds. Where was this one tank going? What possible mission could it have?



The Russians may have relearned the rule of spreading out rather than clustering targets. We don't know if there aren't more tanks outside of the video's framing.

But you're right about the lack of infantry or air support. Using armor in a city at the very least requires infantry support, and ideally air support as well, though its capabilities are more constrained. There should be infantry in close support precisely to deal with close-in threats.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Basket
> , while I may not agree with you that Ukraine’s best interest is to concede its disputed territories and guarantee neutrality as Putin will spin this as total victory and he will come back for the rest in the future, I do think it is the likely scenario. I think in the end Ukraine and Russia will reach this agreement.


If I was Ukraine I would cede Crimea and the smaller areas in the east the separatists occupied before the war. Those three places are vastly majority Russian populated and thus a likely source of trouble in the future. Focus on keeping the areas populated by Ukrainians, make peace and then militarize like hell, including setting up your own Iron Dome system, to be ready for the next time.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 17, 2022)

....and if they reach this agreement, Adolph Putin will be back tomorrow for another portion of Ukraine. It's insane to expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable and it's Ukraine that will pay the price, in land and blood. When Uklaine disapears, which country volunteers to be the next sacrificial lamb?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

Jerad said:


> ZSU hit on technics (URAL) with soldiers RF. Kharkiv. 16.03.2022
> .



Is this a coordinated effort between drone operator and ground forces? If so, that’s cutting edge work. Nice. That infantry carrier didn‘t explode like I anticipated.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Reality doesn't suck, bro. It's good.
> 
> It's the crazy loons who believe crazy loons that are the problem.
> 
> ...



Reality is not always good, bro… lol

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If I was Ukraine I would cede Crimea and the smaller areas in the east the separatists occupied before the war. Those three places are vastly majority Russian populated and thus a likely source of trouble in the future. Focus on keeping the areas populated by Ukrainians, make peace and then militarize like hell, including setting up your own Iron Dome system, to be ready for the next time.



So when do they stop ceding territory? The next time Putin wants a chunk (and you know he will) just give him those too? How about the ethic Russians can go back to Russia if they would rather live under the thumb of a totalitarian quasi dictator.

Let me ask you, would you be ok with Quebec leaving Canada? They are practically ethnic French. Hell their official language is French.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> ....and if they reach this agreement, Adolph Putin will be back tomorrow for another portion of Ukraine. It's insane to expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable and it's Ukraine that will pay the price, in land and blood. When Uklaine disapears, which country volunteers to be the next sacrificial lamb?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So when do they stop ceding territory? The next time Putin wants a chunk (and you know he will) just give him those too? How about the ethic Russians can go back to Russia if they would rather live under the thumb of a totalitarian quasi dictator.
> 
> Let me as you, would you be ok with Quebec leaving Canada? They are practically ethic French. Hell their official language is French.


Russia will be back, so I’m suggesting that Ukraine cede the pre-war territories in order to buy time. In Crimea Ukraine hardly fired a shot, they did nothing to defend the territory, and fled like the Afghans at Kabul as the Taliban approached. It’s sh#tty and not right for Ukraine to cede anything, but reality sucks.

Had Quebec voted to exit in the 1995 Referendum all Canadians would have let them go without any bloodshed or drama necessary. Instead we would have renegotiated the constitution to create whatever new relationship the two sides wanted. Self determination is important.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

The Ukrainians will be getting another 2,000 or so Javelins, 700 Stingers, 100 light-attack drones, and about 7,000 small-arms, along with 20,000,000 rounds of ammo for them.









What’s in the new US military aid package to Ukraine?


Washington has announced an additional $800m in security aid including drones and anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems.




www.aljazeera.com





The Brits are also sending 500 StarStreak MANPADs, from what I understand, which are quite a bit more capable than Stingers.

Reality may be just as harsh on the Russians in the next few weeks.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 17, 2022)

It's great we learned the lessons of the 1930's, hopefully we also learned the lesson to not sit around with your thumb up your ass and do nothing as one country mobilized troops on another country's border for over a year, especially after that mobilizing country had previously taken part of the country. That is, if we really give a shit about that country's sovereignty and democracy. But then we would deny all the self-righteous and self-aggrandizing politicians the opportunity to get their faces on TV and talk about and condemn all the atrocities that did jack shit to prevent.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia will be back, so I’m suggesting that Ukraine cede the pre-war territories in order to buy time. In Crimea Ukraine hardly fired a shot, they did nothing to defend the territory, and fled like the Afghans at Kabul as the Taliban approached. It’s sh#tty and not right for Ukraine to cede anything, but reality sucks.
> 
> Had Quebec voted to exit in the 1995 Referendum all Canadians would have let them go without any bloodshed or drama necessary. Instead we would have renegotiated the constitution to create whatever new relationship the two sides wanted. Self determination is important.



And why is Russia back again? Because Ukraine did not put up a fight. Appeasement gets you know where. Have we not learned anything from Hitler and Chamberlain?

And then British Columbia goes “Hmmm what’s good for Quebec is good for us too. Bye Canada”. And then the next, and the next…

Obviously Canada and Quebec is pretty oddball example, but the point still stands the lands In Ukraine are Ukrainian, not Russia. Ukraine should not be seeding land because some people think they are someone else.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And why is Russia back again?


Because when this war inevitably ends with some agreement of terms between the two countries, Russia will break it and attack again. As long as Russia exists as an autocratic, grievance-wrought militaristic failed state that sees an opportunity no matter how slight or fantastical, they will always be back to try again.

If British Columbia wants to leave Canada they can vote to do so. Unlike the USA we have a formal means for provinces to exit Canada. No shooting required. Clarity Act - Wikipedia

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Because when this war inevitably ends with some agreement of terms between the two countries, Russia will break it and attack again. As long as Russia exists as an autocratic, grievance-wrought militaristic failed state that sees an opportunity no matter how slight or fantastical, they will always be back to try again.



Which strikes me as all the more reason to not cut a deal, especially if it gives up bridgeheads in Eastern Ukraine that could be used in any continuation of this war in years to come.

The best card Ukraine holds is promising to not join NATO, but clearly Putin won't believe that.

Stopping the killing is of course a laudable goal. Kicking the can down the road, which allows the Russians to reconstitute their forces, not so much, imho.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Because when this war inevitably ends with some agreement of terms between the two countries, Russia will break it and attack again. As long as Russia exists as an autocratic, grievance-wrought militaristic failed state that sees an opportunity no matter how slight or fantastical, they will always be back to try again.



You are correct, and people like Putin (aka a bully) only understand being pushed back. If Ukraine was long term security and peace it needs to fight back until Putin is defeated and gone, which will only happen when his people have had enough. Giving up and letting him “win” will not drive his people to remove him.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Which strikes me as all the more reason to not cut a deal, especially if it gives up bridgeheads in Eastern Ukraine that could be used in any continuation of this war in years to come.
> 
> The best card Ukraine holds is promising to not join NATO, but clearly Putin won't believe that.
> 
> Stopping the killing is of course a laudable goal. Kicking the can down the road, which allows the Russians to reconstitute their forces, not so much, imho.



Exactly. Insurance to not join NATO is fine, and probably a good deal. Giving up strategic territory is not.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You are correct, and people like Putin (aka a bully) only understand being pushed back. If Ukraine was long term security and peace it needs to fight back until Putin is defeated and gone, which will only happen when his people have had enough. Giving up and letting him “win” will not drive his people to remove him.


I agree, but regime change is not within the abilities of the Ukrainians. Russians will fight like Ukrainians if they’re now defending their own homes and families. Besides, if Ukrainian forces take one step outside of Ukraine’s borders the West will worry about an escalation and tell the Ukrainians to stand down. No one is invading Russia to the point that the Kremlin falls without provoking a nuclear strike.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I agree, but regime change is not within the abilities of the Ukrainians. Russians will fight like Ukrainians if they’re now defending their own homes and families. Besides, if Ukrainian forces take one step outside of Ukraine’s borders the West will worry about an escalation and tell the Ukrainians to stand down. No one is invading Russia to the point that the Kremlin falls without provoking a nuclear strike.



Why would Russians be defending their homes? Ukraine is not invading them. Ukraine has ZERO intent or ability to invade Russia. That scenario has nothing to do and is irrelevant with what’s going on. All Ukraine wants is Russia to go home? Is seeding territory to Russia in their best interest? Hell no. You say it will buy them more time? Strategically that is bad. Why? Because Russia gets more time to prepare before they come back again. And next time ole Putin will not underestimate the Ukrainians.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No one is invading Russia


Nuff said...

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

Here we go! These Ruskies are funny guys!









A Russian lawmaker wants Alaska back. 'Good luck with that!'


Mar. 17—A Russian parliament member has called for the return of Alaska to Russian, prompting a quick dismissal from Alaska politicians and others. The statement came as Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to rewrite history in an effort to explain away his war in Ukraine. But Russia...




news.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I can see them ceding Crimea. Not so sure about the Donbas.


I'm wondering how many of those "Russian separatists" still prefer Russia over Ukraine. Not the ones imported by Putin.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here we go! These Ruskies are funny guys!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



In the name of peace we should allow this to happen. Putin is a noble man and only wants peace.

I have returned from Russia with peace for our time!

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## Glider (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And 3) made sure that the whole world is now aware of Ukraine as a separate, independent nation with its own language, culture, government and people. Putin has essentially put Ukraine on the map.


And 4) No one will mess with the Ukraine for a long long time

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## Jerad (Mar 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is this a coordinated effort between drone operator and ground forces? If so, that’s cutting edge work. Nice. That infantry carrier didn‘t explode like I anticipated.


There was no information about this anywhere, my thoughts are rather yes than no.

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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

Prominent speakers, excellent discussion.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here we go! These Ruskies are funny guys!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A flag we flew here in Texas 187 years ago:






PS -- Russia, let us know how it works out for you.

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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm wondering how many of those "Russian separatists" still prefer Russia over Ukraine. Not the ones imported by Putin.


We will never know. Future historians will try to estimate, probably.
Just for info. The last professional independent social surveys in the first half of 2013 have indicated that just about 30% of the population in Crimea wanted unification with Russian Federation. Percentage in the East of Ukraine was similar. I mention the first half of the year because Kremlin started a massive propaganda campaign in the summer of 2013, which was actually a preparation phase for the invasions of 2014.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

From this day, two years ago, regarding Crimea.









Crimea: Six years after illegal annexation


Six years after Russia illegally annexed Crimea, Ukraine lacks the leverage to restore sovereignty over the region, but the West should not accept it since doing so would only encourage Russia to believe it can get away with annexing territory from other countries.




www.brookings.edu

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## Airframes (Mar 17, 2022)

Putin only wants peace.
A Piece of Ukraine, a piece of Crimea, a piece of Latvia, Lithuania, and maybe a piece of Poland, Czech republic etc etc.........
With apologies to the movie "The Producers" ................

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## Dimlee (Mar 17, 2022)

One of the rare public comments from the Ukrainian military about the state of air defence.
It's more about the alarm system but there are some other tidbits:
- It is recognised that the radar system was de-facto destroyed on the first day of the invasion. It was restored, but only partly.
- It is said that only 10% of Russian missiles are shot down. What is not clear, did they mean all missiles including ballistic Iskanders?
- Cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea were especially difficult to detect since they were flying very low over the Dniester river.
In Ukrainian:








Як працює повітряна тривога – пояснюють Повітряні сили ЗСУ


За 22 дні війни в Україні, певно, не залишилося великих міст, де б не лунав сигнал повітряної тривоги. У столиці він вмикається по 5-7 разів на день.




www.pravda.com.ua

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## special ed (Mar 17, 2022)

I believe I mentioned they would want Alaska back up thread.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

special ed said:


> I believe I mentioned they would want Alaska back up thread.



Want in one hand, shit in the other, and see which one fills up first.

The Russians seem to have both hands full in Ukraine anyway, this parliamentarian bluster aside.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

That idiot also mentioned claiming Antarctica as Russian, too.

They spotted it from afar, but they didn't step foot on it first.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

I’ll give all three guesses who said this…

They will not allowed into “the superior caste, the superior race"


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## swampyankee (Mar 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Wonder if the Russian Navy will try and test Turkey's authority...


That could be considered an attack on a NATO member. Putin's navy could be improved into a number of artificial, albeit polluted, reefs.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> That could be considered an attack on a NATO member. Putin's navy could be improved into a number of artificial, albeit polluted, reefs.


Several years ago the Turks shot down a Russian fighter that went into their airspace. They will not mess around.

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## swampyankee (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So when do they stop ceding territory? The next time Putin wants a chunk (and you know he will) just give him those too? How about the ethic Russians can go back to Russia if they would rather live under the thumb of a totalitarian quasi dictator.
> 
> Let me ask you, would you be ok with Quebec leaving Canada? They are practically ethnic French. Hell their official language is French.


Not being either Canadian or Québécois, I don't get a vote on that, but it's fundamentally different for Québec to leave Canada than for somebody to invade Canada to "liberate" the province.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Not being either Canadian or Québécois, I don't get a vote on that, but it's fundamentally different for Québec to leave Canada than for somebody to invade Canada to "liberate" the province.



Agreed, but I am referring to the break away provinces in Ukraine that declared their independence before the invasion.

They are part of Russias justification for war. Putin says he is liberating and protecting them.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin says he is liberating a[nd] protecting them.



Hitler said just as much about protecting Germans in Sudetenland. Hitler wasn't trustworthy, and neither is Putin. We now know better and should do what steps we can to shut this down ASAP -- having history as a guide.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let me ask you, would you be ok with Quebec leaving Canada? They are practically ethnic French. Hell their official language is French.


Just had to, LOL!

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## JDCAVE (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I give them the benefit of the doubt for the 30s. They had just come out of WW1 and hind sight is always 20/20. Today we have no excuse though. We have Chamberlain to thank for teaching us what not to do.


I’m not giving them any befit of the doubt. None. Neither did Churchill. And the US position towards Nazi Germany was even more reprehensible, right up until Pearl Harbour.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Hitler said just as much about protecting Germans in Sudetenland. Hitler wasn't trustworthy, and neither is Putin. We now know better and should do what steps we can to shut this down ASAP -- having history as a guide.



My wife’s grandmother is from the Sudetenland. She has some crazy stories to tell. She was only 7 when she fled her home to get away from the advancing Russians. Heartbreaking stories to hear first hand.

*This post is not justifying what the Germans did, just further demonstrating how children suffer the most in war regardless of what country or side they were born into.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I’m not giving them any befit of the doubt. None. Neither did Churchill. And the US position towards Nazi Germany was even more reprehensible, right up until Pearl Harbour.



I’m specifically talking about the appeasement prior to WW2. Europe was still recovering from the horrors of WW1. Nobody wanted another costly war.

You and I have the benefit of hind sight, and the ability to objectively judge the actions taken. Had an entire generation of our sons been butchered in the trenches, we might be thinking this differently.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I’m not giving them any befit of the doubt. None. Neither did Churchill. And the US position towards Nazi Germany was even more reprehensible, right up until Pearl Harbour.



Given the fact that we were in an undeclared shooting war against the Germans before PH was attacked, I'm not sure how valid your complaint is. "Shoot on sight" was official American policy the last couple of months of 1941, and indeed one of the points Hitler cited in justifying his declaration of war on America on 11 Dec.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m specifically talking about the appeasement prior to WW2. Europe was still recovering from the horrors of WW1. Nobody wanted another costly war.
> 
> You and I have the benefit of hind sight, and the ability to objectively judge the actions taken. Had an entire genetation of our sons been butchered in the trenches, we might be thinking this differently.



The other factor is that, in 1938, Britain was in no fit state to go to war against Germany. At that time, Fighter Command comprised just 25 squadrons, most of which were still biplanes. At the time of the Battle of Britain, the RAF had 63 fighter squadrons, almost all equipped with Hurricanes and Spitfires. The speed with which Britain was re-arming in the late-1930s often gets forgotten. It was galloping to regain some sort of parity with Germany, and it was a race it barely won even with the outbreak of war in September 1939 when there were just 18 Hurricane squadrons in Fighter Command. 

With a massively outnumbered, outperformed and outgunned fighter force, zero strategic bombers, and an outnumbered army, it's tough to see what Britain could have done to deter Hitler in 1938. It's particularly hard to see how Britain could have stopped Germany advancing into the Sudetenland. The only option would have been to band together with France and attack Germany...and that was not politically viable given the vivid memories of the Great War. 

Chamberlain gets a lot of stick but he bought critical time for Britain to continue re-arming. It's also worth remembering that no other leader of a major power was doing anything more aggressive to deter Hitler. Lumping all the blame on Chamberlain's shoulders is unfair.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The other factor is that, in 1938, Britain was in no fit state to go to war against Germany. At that time, Fighter Command comprised just 25 squadrons, most of which were still biplanes. At the time of the Battle of Britain, the RAF had 63 fighter squadrons, almost all equipped with Hurricanes and Spitfires. The speed with which Britain was re-arming in the late-1930s often gets forgotten. It was galloping to regain some sort of parity with Germany, and it was a race it barely won even with the outbreak of war in September 1939 when there were just 18 Hurricane squadrons in Fighter Command.
> 
> With a massively outnumbered, outperformed and outgunned fighter force, zero strategic bombers, and an outnumbered army, it's tough to see what Britain could have done to deter Hitler in 1938. It's particularly hard to see how Britain could have stopped Germany advancing into the Sudetenland. The only option would have been to band together with France and attack Germany...and that was not politically viable given the vivid memories of the Great War.
> 
> Chamberlain gets a lot of stick but he bought critical time for Britain to continue re-arming. It's also worth remembering that no other leader of a major power was doing anything more aggressive to deter Hitler. Lumping all the blame on Chamberlain's shoulders is unfair.


Aw c'mon, man! I was composing a similar post mentioning Sir Neville buying time. I was going to throw in Chain Home. I was even about to write "Sir Neville gets a lot of stick..." 
Oh well, I'll add my uninformed thoughts. 
Sir Neville Chamberlain gets a lot stick for being an appeaser. From various posts and links on some threads, I was made aware of PM Chamberlain's accomplishments.... aw, the heck with it. You guys brought it up before so I'm reminding you guys of what you made me aware of.
So there!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> With a massively outnumbered, outperformed and outgunned fighter force, zero strategic bombers, and an outnumbered army, it's tough to see what Britain could have done to deter Hitler in 1938.



I think that's exactly the lesson we should draw, using hindsight, when analyzing the 30s. And you're right that this wasn't Chamberlain's fault, in the sense that Defence had been left to languish long before he took office. That too is a lesson we should draw.

Deterrence needs the potential of force to make it useful. If the force is not there, deterrence is hollow.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Aw c'mon, man! I was composing a similar post mentioning Sir Neville buying time. I was going to throw in Chain Home. I was even about to write "Sir Neville gets a lot of stick..."
> Oh well, I'll add my uninformed thoughts.
> Sir Neville Chamberlain gets a lot stick for being an appeaser. From various posts and links on some threads, I was made aware of PM Chamberlain's accomplishments.... aw, the heck with it. You guys brought it up before so I'm reminding you guys of what you made me aware of.
> So there!



I'll check with you to confirm that I may speak before writing my next post.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'll check with you to confirm that I may speak before writing my next post.



Pre-checking my posts with Rob has saved me a couple of embarrassing moments. Why, I once almost posted that the Buffalo was a dog, but Rob set me straight.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

Blame should not be placed on Chamberlain, but rather squarely on tje shoulders of the League of Nations.

Their special sessions, conferences and assemblies acheived diddly-squat.

No one single nation could have deterred Germany from it's wants, but banded together, the LoN could have easily put Hitler in check with their collective military and economic power.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think that's exactly the lesson we should draw, using hindsight, when analyzing the 30s. And you're right that this wasn't Chamberlain's fault, in the sense that Defence had been left to languish long before he took office. That too is a lesson we should draw.
> 
> Deterrence needs the potential of force to make it useful. If the force is not there, deterrence is hollow.


On the point of deterrence, Dimlee's post # 2339 of the NATO SACEURs panel, addresses it. I don't want to boil the link down because I can't do it justice. ONE of the many items discussed was that The West never offered a credible threat. Rather, NATO says what it won't do. It has backed down so as not to appear provocative. It hasn't worked. Many interesting ideas were floated. If Putin truly is afraid of having his empire nuked, then perhaps some avenues are open. The combat and logistical effectiveness of the RF forces has been laid bare to the West, Asia and more importantly, Vlad himself. Really, check it out. Four generals, sixteen stars. What could be bad?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> On the point of deterrence, Dimlee's post # 2339 of the NATO SACEURs panel, addresses it. I don't want to boil the link down because I can't do it justice. ONE of the many items discussed was that The West never offered a credible threat. Rather, NATO says what it won't do. It has backed down so as not to appear provocative. It hasn't worked. Many interesting ideas were floated. If Putin truly is afraid of having his empire nuked, then perhaps some avenues are open. The combat and logistical effectiveness of the RF forces has been laid bare to the West, Asia and more importantly, Vlad himself. Really, check it out. Four generals, sixteen stars. What could be bad?



I haven't had the time to watch that vid yet, but I bookmarked it as soon as I saw Dimlee's post. Until then I can't offer any informed opinion on it. I should be able to get to it tomorrow.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> On the point of deterrence, Dimlee's post # 2339 of the NATO SACEURs panel, addresses it. I don't want to boil the link down because I can't do it justice. ONE of the many items discussed was that The West never offered a credible threat. Rather, NATO says what it won't do. It has backed down so as not to appear provocative. It hasn't worked. Many interesting ideas were floated. If Putin truly is afraid of having his empire nuked, then perhaps some avenues are open. The combat and logistical effectiveness of the RF forces has been laid bare to the West, Asia and more importantly, Vlad himself. Really, check it out. Four generals, sixteen stars. What could be bad?



C'mon Rob. NATO has NOT backed down. It is simply abiding by it's established purpose. It is meant to deter attack against member nations. It clearly has done that successfully for most of its history. NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe. That's not its function.

The problem is that any other international intervention (e.g. via the UN Security Council) can be vetoed by Russia. Clearly, having Russia as a permanent member of the Security Council gives Putin an unusual degree of latitude - he can take aggressive action and then veto any attempts to counter it within the UN. I think it's time for the UN to consider removing Russia as a permanent member of the Security Council until such time as the Kremlin can show some consideration for constructive engagement with the international community. Doing so would enable a vote from the remaining members which could allow peacekeeping forces to deploy into Ukraine under the UN banner. 

Of course, the UN is unlikely to remove Russia's permanent member status...but I hope they're at least exploring the option.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

I thought the UN suspended Russia's vote through a clause?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe. That's not its function.



I would disagree with this. Deterrence was NATO's _raison d'etre_ from its very foundation in 1949.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

Like I said, I can't do it justice. See what happens when I "boil down" a complex series of actions and events into a pithy phrase?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I thought the UN suspended Russia's vote through a clause?


What clause? Did someone actually think it through way back when?


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## JDCAVE (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m specifically talking about the appeasement prior to WW2. Europe was still recovering from the horrors of WW1. Nobody wanted another costly war.
> 
> You and I have the benefit of hind sight, and the ability to objectively judge the actions taken. Had an entire genetation of our sons been butchered in the trenches, we might be thinking this differently.


I am referring to American Isolationist sentiment, by diverse groups including the America First Committee headed by Roger Wood and other industrialists, together with star figures such as Charles Lindberg and others. These groups were still highly influential right up until December 1941. Sorry, but the war was well underway for 2 years before America became involved. The Isolationist policy had little to do with appeasement after the invasion of Poland.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

I think the clause was a suggestion made upthread. There's no requirement for any Security Council member to recuse itself from a vote on its own actions.

The UN should take this advice, though.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I would disagree with this. Deterrence was NATO's _raison d'etre_ from its very foundation in 1949.



But only deterrence against attack on the member nations. NATO has no charter to deter attack anywhere else. From NATO's own website:

*Safeguarding the freedom and security of its members*
_
NATO's essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means. Collective defence is at the heart of the Alliance, as set out in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. NATO's greatest responsibility is to protect and defend Allied territory and populations against attack in a world where peace and security cannot be taken for granted.

Deterrence is a core element of NATO's overall strategy: preventing conflict and war, protecting Allies, maintaining freedom of decision and action, and upholding the principles and values it stands for – individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Free societies and the rules-based international order need to be backed by credible transatlantic defence.

NATO's capacity to deter and defend is supported by an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defence capabilities, which complement each other, and is underpinned by an array of civil and military resources to support these capabilities and the posture more broadly. NATO also maintains the freedom of action and flexibility to respond to the full spectrum of challenges with an appropriate and tailored approach._


The capitalized term "Allies" has a specific meaning and relates solely to those countries who are party to the NATO treaty. Other nations who align with NATO but are not signatories of the treaty are termed partners...and you'll note that "partners" does not appear in the description.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But only deterrence against attack on the member nations. NATO has no charter to deter attack anywhere else. From NATO's own website:
> 
> *Safeguarding the freedom and security of its members*
> _
> ...



Right. But it was deterrence all the same against an attack from the [then] Soviet Union, so the statement "NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe" just isn't accurate. NATO came together specifically to deter a Soviet attack into Western Europe by tying those countries together and presenting the USSR with a united front. The very passage you quote refers to NATO's mission of deterrence.

That was its entire purpose: deterring a Soviet attack upon the rest of Europe.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The other factor is that, in 1938, Britain was in no fit state to go to war against Germany. At that time, Fighter Command comprised just 25 squadrons, most of which were still biplanes. At the time of the Battle of Britain, the RAF had 63 fighter squadrons, almost all equipped with Hurricanes and Spitfires. The speed with which Britain was re-arming in the late-1930s often gets forgotten. It was galloping to regain some sort of parity with Germany, and it was a race it barely won even with the outbreak of war in September 1939 when there were just 18 Hurricane squadrons in Fighter Command.
> 
> With a massively outnumbered, outperformed and outgunned fighter force, zero strategic bombers, and an outnumbered army, it's tough to see what Britain could have done to deter Hitler in 1938. It's particularly hard to see how Britain could have stopped Germany advancing into the Sudetenland. The only option would have been to band together with France and attack Germany...and that was not politically viable given the vivid memories of the Great War.
> 
> Chamberlain gets a lot of stick but he bought critical time for Britain to continue re-arming. It's also worth remembering that no other leader of a major power was doing anything more aggressive to deter Hitler. Lumping all the blame on Chamberlain's shoulders is unfair.



I can agree with all of that. Its all very complicated. As I said, we have the luxury of looking at it decades later from our armchairs.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right. But it was deterrence all the same against an attack from the [then] Soviet Union, so the statement "NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe" just isn't accurate. NATO came together specifically to deter a Soviet attack into Western Europe by tying those countries together and presenting the USSR with a united front. The very passage you quote refers to NATO's mission of deterrence.
> 
> That was its entire purpose: deterring a Soviet attack upon the rest of Europe.



No...it's not about deterring attack against the rest of Europe. It's about deterring attack against NATO members. If Russia (or the USSR) decided to roll into Finland or Sweden, or drop bombs on Switzerland, we'd be having EXACTLY the same discussion. None of these European nations are members of NATO and hence the Treaty nations are under no obligation to respond. Putin has painted NATO as a threat to Russia, hence if NATO responds outside its established limits then it's doing exactly the same thing that Putin's doing (i.e. not following the established treaties).

Putin knows that NATO cannot respond if he doesn't directly attack the member nations, which is exactly why he's pursuing this policy. He also knows that Russian veto in the UN prevents military intervention by other means. The only other approach is to assemble a "coalition of the willing" but that would have to happen outside UN approval....and we all know how well that would be received. The very nations complaining about Russia not abiding by the rule of law would, themselves, be breaking that rule of law.

Now, of course things aren't always that cut and dried. NATO can, theoretically, engage in operations outside its borders. Examples include the air attacks on the Former Yugoslavia which were initially conducted in support of UNPROFOR (UN Protection Force). Later operations were done without UN sanction and drew strong criticism, with questions remaining about their legality. 

If some means could be found to insert UN forces into Ukraine, then there could be the opportunity for NATO to get involved if the UN approved the employment of force.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I can agree with all of that. Its all very complicated. As I said, we have the luxury of looking at it decades later from our armchairs.



We also have the obligation to learn from it so that no other generation suffers again what those folk, the world over, suffered between 1937 and 1945.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I am referring to American Isolationist sentiment, by diverse groups including the America First Committee headed by Roger Wood and other industrialists, together with star figures such as Charles Lindberg and others. These groups were still highly influential right up until December 1941. Sorry, but the war was well underway for 2 years before America became involved. The Isolationist policy had little to do with appeasement after the invasion of Poland.



Sure, but you were responding directly to a post about appeasing Germany for temporary peace, not American isolationism.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> No...it's not about deterring attack against the rest of Europe. It's about deterring attack against NATO members.



Well, that sounds like deterrence to me.

You had written: "NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe". 

NATO was certainly intended to deter an attack against member nations, 10 of the original 12 being located in Europe.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We also have the obligation to learn from it so that no other generation suffers again what those folk, the world over, suffered between 1937 and 1945.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What clause? Did someone actually think it through way back when?


I'm not sure exactly, I just recall hearing something about Russia whining about being vilified and the other UN members carrying on about objections.

The UN is about as worthless as tits on a Nun.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Well, that sounds like deterrence to me.
> 
> You had written: "NATO was never meant to deter any attack anywhere in the world, nor even within Europe".
> 
> NATO was certainly intended to deter an attack against member nations, 10 of the original 12 being located in Europe.



Exactly...it was to defend the 10 member nations within Europe and the 2 nations outside of Europe. It was not to defend all the countries of Europe. 

About the only wriggle room I can detect in the NATO charter relates to response to a humanitarian crisis. We can all see such events in Ukraine, and they're clearly having a destabilizing influence. Again, I think it would take UN endorsement before NATO took action using that angle.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Exactly...it was to defend the 10 member nations within Europe and the 2 nations outside of Europe. It was not to defend all the countries of Europe.
> 
> About the only wriggle room I can detect in the NATO charter relates to response to a humanitarian crisis. We can all see such events in Ukraine, and they're clearly having a destabilizing influence. Again, I think it would take UN endorsement before NATO took action using that angle.




My point is that you wrote that NATO was not about any deterrence anywhere, even in Europe. That's simply not correct, as you yourself have noted and cited. Their mission statement speaks directly to deterrence, and you acknowledged "It's about deterring attack against NATO members."

NATO came about for deterrence. That is why it was created. It wasn't worldwide deterrence, it doesn't extend to any non-NATO countries, but NATO would not have come about without the threat of the USSR pushing further westward. We both know this. It was put in place in order to deter Stalin's USSR from getting too high on the hog.

Of course NATO has shifted its outlook, but Article Five makes plain the point of the treaty.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My point is that you wrote that NATO was not about any deterrence anywhere, even in Europe. That's simply not correct, as you yourself have noted and cited. Their mission statement speaks directly to deterrence, and you acknowledged "It's about deterring attack against NATO members."
> 
> NATO came about for deterrence. That is why it was created. It wasn't worldwide deterrence, it doesn't extend to any non-NATO countries, but NATO would not have come about without the threat of the USSR pushing further westward. We both know this. It was put in place in order to deter Stalin's USSR from getting too high on the hog.
> 
> Of course NATO has shifted its outlook, but Article Five makes plain the point of the treaty.



Ok….what I wrote was not what I was thinking. My original statement should have read “all of Europe” rather than “within Europe”. Mea culpa….although I’m disappointed that you can’t read my mind. 😊

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok….what I wrote was not what I was thinking. My original statement should have read “all of Europe” rather than “within Europe”. Mea culpa….although I’m disappointed that you can’t read my mind. 😊



lol, my ESP board is in the shop getting a chipset upgrade, so yeah. This is as much, if not more, me getting geeky as you not writing perfectly, so no tripping out here.

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 18, 2022)

Watch out

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

Слава Украйна !

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Exactly...it was to defend the 10 member nations within Europe and the 2 nations outside of Europe. It was not to defend all the countries of Europe.
> 
> About the only wriggle room I can detect in the NATO charter relates to response to a humanitarian crisis. We can all see such events in Ukraine, and they're clearly having a destabilizing influence. Again, I think it would take UN endorsement before NATO took action using that angle.


That was one of the issues brought up by that panel. "Hiding" behind Article 5 emboldened Putin. He invaded Georgia. No one did a thing. He invaded Crimea. That was easy. He responded to cries for assistance from Donbas and Luhansk apparatchiks. Got away with that too! All while working to undermine NATO unity and snagging a cool yacht and Chateau/Evil Supervillain Hideout. "Nyet! I will tell you what clubs you can and cannot join." he tells sovereign nations. And gets away with it. To Putin, any time he succeeds at rebuilding Imperial Russia, NATO has backed down, in his mind.
Humanitarian aid, aye there's the wriggle room. It was done in Bosnia with the involvement of both sides. Send an aid mission with Chinese and Indian observers (remind Eleven China isn't the only country in Asia). Will he shoot at several C-19s with appropriate NATO fighter escort that have international observers aboard? Let's see how Vlad reacts to provocation himself. I seem to recall there are gaps in Soviet air coverage from Military Aviation History's vid on the no fly zone. He might not really believe his own statements about having the might to take us down. Look at what it's costing him just to being able to not conquer Ukraine.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That was one of the issues brought up by that panel. "Hiding" behind Article 5 emboldened Putin. He invaded Georgia. No one did a thing. He invaded Crimea. That was easy. He responded to cries for assistance from Donbas and Luhansk apparatchiks. Got away with that too! All while working to undermine NATO unity and snagging a cool yacht and Chateau/Evil Supervillain Hideout. "Nyet! I will tell you what clubs you can and cannot join." he tells sovereign nations. And gets away with it. To Putin, any time he succeeds at rebuilding Imperial Russia, NATO has backed down, in his mind.
> Humanitarian aid, aye there's the wriggle room. It was done in Bosnia with the involvement of both sides. Send an aid mission with Chinese and Indian observers (remind Eleven China isn't the only country in Asia). Will he shoot at several C-19s with appropriate NATO fighter escort that have international observers aboard? Let's see how Vlad reacts to provocation himself. I seem to recall there are gaps in Soviet air coverage from Military Aviation History's vid on the no fly zone. He might not really believe his own statements about having the might to take us down. Look at what it's costing him just to being able to conquer Ukraine.


Now would be the time for Georgia to reclaim the land stolen and occupied from them in 2008.

Create a two front war to tax Putler's resources.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now would be the time for Georgia to reclaim the land stolen and occupied from them in 2008.
> 
> Create a two front war to tax Putler's resources.



I'd pay cash money to watch his reaction if he got that news.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

I wonder if a referendum were held now in Crimea how it would go. Not just the two choices Putler gave them but a third choice; being reunited with their country, Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd pay cash money to watch his reaction if he got that news.


You 'n me both, brother.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Oh yeah, there’s a UN troop for every Ukrainian and Russian soldier during said referendum.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You 'n me both, brother.



You just know he'd be shitting bricks sideways.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now would be the time for Georgia to reclaim the land stolen and occupied from them in 2008.
> 
> Create a two front war to tax Putler's resources.


Perhaps when Mikhail’s Navy sails by Turkey.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wonder if a referendum were held now in Crimea how it would go. Not just the two choices Putler gave them but a third choice; being reunited with their country, Ukraine.


At the time of the "Annexation" vote in 2014, the voter turn out was claimed to be over 70%, yet only 35% registered showed up.
Oddly enough, the line for "remain within Ukraine" didn't have a checkbox.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps when Mikail’s Navy sails by Turkey.


We've already seen how friendly the Georgian Navy is with the Russian Navy!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now would be the time for Georgia to reclaim the land stolen and occupied from them in 2008.
> 
> Create a two front war to tax Putler's resources.



Putler

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

Well, we have a nobody KGB officer who's weasled his way to the rank of Imperious Leader.
Same as an angry Imperial German Army Corporal who was just a messenger.

Therefore: Putler

And I hope the former's demise is the same as the latter's...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 18, 2022)

Russian attack helicopters shooting rockets salvo upwards.

Looks like a tactic to extend the range at the cost of precision.

Ukrainian AA fire pretty fearsome for low flying aircraft.









Russian Attack Helicopters Are Now Wildly Lobbing Rockets Over Ukraine (Updated)


While this tactic is likely forced upon Russian helicopters by Ukrainian air defenses, the military value of it is questionable, to say the least.




www.thedrive.com

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 18, 2022)

Airborne Katyusha multiple rocket launcher

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 18, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Russian attack helicopters shooting rockets salvo upwards. Looks like a tactic to extend the range at the cost of precision.


IMO this is an example of a pilot both wanting to survive and not too supportive of the invasion who cleared his rockets into the general direction of the enemy so he can return to base with empty racks, suggesting he’s done his duty.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IMO this is an example of a pilot both wanting to survive and not too supportive of the invasion who cleared his rockets into the general direction of the enemy so he can return to base with empty racks, suggesting he’s done his duty.


And presumably no "gun" cameras showing otherwise...

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 18, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> And presumably no "gun" cameras showing otherwise...


The gunner may have inadvertently switched them off.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The gunner may have inadvertently switched them off.


Twice! Probably malfunction!

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## ARTESH (Mar 18, 2022)

------

Just imagine 40 years later, a 15 years old girl, tweets about the reason behind 3rd world war:

"Who knows? Maybe Putin fell in love with the eyes of an Ukrainian girl?" 

------

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 18, 2022)

I bought a new t-shirt last night:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps when Mikhail’s Navy sails by Turkey.



I _love_ a good pun!

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## special ed (Mar 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But only deterrence against attack on the member nations. NATO has no charter to deter attack anywhere else. From NATO's own website:
> 
> *Safeguarding the freedom and security of its members*
> 
> ...


I suspect the lawyers among you might see the phrase "Allied territory AND POPULATIONS against attack" as a loophole for protecting ethnic peoples living in a non-NATO country as did Hitler with those Germans in the Sudatenland.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

_When the invasion of Ukraine began three weeks ago, many thought it would end quickly because of Russia's military strength. But as the war drags on and Ukraine digs in, two questions are increasingly being asked: Can Ukraine win this war, and what will it take?

[...]

The reason for Russia's lack of battlefield success started before the invasion began and can be attributed to systemic issues, including corruption and poor training, and bad assumptions, said Steven Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Horrell, also a former U.S. naval intelligence officer, thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin saw the attack on Ukraine unfolding in a vastly different way.

"I think Putin truly believed the things that he said about the Ukrainian people welcoming them," Horrell told NPR. "They just failed to understand that the Ukrainian armed forces of 2022 are far different from the Ukrainian armed forces of 2014 when they annexed Crimea and began their adventures in eastern Ukraine."

[...]

Russia wants to control Ukraine and have it be a non-Western leaning state, but Horrell said the Ukrainian people had shown that the invasion alone would not eliminate their Western ideals. And, he said, they would not accept a president who was chosen by Russia.

"That is almost zero chance of occurring now," Horrell said. "And for Ukraine ... you would define victory as the complete expulsion of the Russian invaders, not just this recent invasion, but to get the borders back to 2014 before Crimea was illegally annexed."

[...]

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges serves as the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at CEPA and said that based on his experience and the reports of Russian ammunition and manpower shortages, the war may culminate in the next week.

"The time challenge for Russia is not just military," Hodges wrote in his analysis on Tuesday. "The effects of sanctions are growing — Russia may soon default on $150 billion of foreign currency debt — and Russian domestic resentment is also growing."

Hodges said the U.S. and other Western powers needed to move with "urgency" to offer more support against Russia._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Putin vows Russia will prevail in Ukraine but glitch hinders TV


LONDON (Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine before a packed soccer stadium on Friday but coverage of his speech on state television was unexpectedly interrupted by what the Kremlin said was a technical problem with a server. Speaking on a stage at the...




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Private jets are leaving Russia for Dubai after Putin threatened to purge Russian society of traitors


Many Russians have fled the country since the invasion of Ukraine, citing fears of Russian crackdowns and the country's new economy.




www.yahoo.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Russia threatens Bosnia and Herzegovina over NATO membership


A Russian ambassador said Bosnia and Herzegovina could face the same military aggression unleashed on Ukraine if the country joins NATO.




www.yahoo.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

_Russian state TV confirmed on Friday that one of its top commanders died in in Ukraine, CNN reported.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed on Twitter that its soldiers “eliminated” Col. Sergei Sukharev, commander of the elite 331st Guards Airborne Regiment.

“He took part in the Battle of Ilovaysk in 2014 and 2015, where he committed a war crime,” the ministry said, referring to the conflict which saw pro-Ukrainian paramilitaries attempt to capture and restore control over the city.

“The Last Judgment to announce its verdict soon,” it added. 

Russian television network GTRK Kostroma, citing the Regional Military Commissariat, confirmed that Sukharev had died along with several other members of the unit. 

The service members “gave their lives for the security of [Russia]," GTRK Kostroma reported the Commissariat saying, according to CNN.

Confirmation of the death follows several reports of top Russian generals dying in the invasion, which is now 23 days old. _









Russia state TV confirms death of top commander


Russian state TV confirmed on Friday that one of its top commanders died in in Ukraine, CNN reported.Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense claimed on Twitter that its soldiers “eliminated” Col. Sergei Sukh…




thehill.com





They'll have corporals leading companies before too long, at this rate.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia threatens Bosnia and Herzegovina over NATO membership
> 
> 
> A Russian ambassador said Bosnia and Herzegovina could face the same military aggression unleashed on Ukraine if the country joins NATO.
> ...


And just how does Russia expect deliver on that threat?
Bosnia/Herzegovina is landlocked by Croatia and Montenegro, both being NATO nations and to get to them would mean violating either's borders...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And just how does Russia expect deliver on that threat?
> Bosnia/Herzegovina is landlocked by Croatia and Montenegro, both being NATO nations and to get to them would mean violating either's borders...


We all know he does not plan on stopping at Ukraine so why not? No point in keeping it a secret.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We all know he does not plan on stopping at Ukraine so why not? No point in keeping it a secret.


All Putler needs to do, is watch old CNN footage of the first 72 hours of Operation Desert Storm to see what'll happen to his glorious military if he tries...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Easiest way to stop a Russian offensive: booby-trap the grocery stores.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> All Putler needs to do, is watch old CNN footage of the first 72 hours of Operation Desert Storm to see what'll happen to his glorious military if he tries...



Agreed, but I think he lives in a delusional world. That makes it a really dangerous situation. He thinks he can do what he wants because he holds the keys to 6000+ nukes. 

I would not be surprised if he has some aggressive form of brain cancer that is affecting his ability to think rationally.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

He has been successful in his rise to power and manipulating the Russian constitution to maintain his position.

It would appear that with his success, he has somehow gotten the idea that he's invincible.

Now the problem is, his military has been neglected, underfunded and poorly organized since the fall of the Soviet Union and his tossing threats around about his mighty military don't match what it is actually capable of.

At least Hitler, in the early years, fielded a military that could back his play.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And just how does Russia expect deliver on that threat?
> Bosnia/Herzegovina is landlocked by Croatia and Montenegro, both being NATO nations and to get to them would mean violating either's borders...



B&H borders with Serbia, too.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> B&H borders with Serbia, too.


Correct, Serbia and I beleive Macedonia, aren't NATO member nations.
However, all the nations surrounding them are.
So any access to those non-member nations means crossing NATO territory (air, sea and land).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And just how does Russia expect deliver on that threat?
> Bosnia/Herzegovina is landlocked by Croatia and Montenegro, both being NATO nations and to get to them would mean violating either's borders...



Bluster from a desperate man. He's shaking his fist at the clouds.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Correct, but Serbia and I beleive Macedonia, aren't NATO member nations.
> However, all the nations surrounding them are.
> So any access to those non-member nations means crossing NATO territory (air, sea and land).



... unless they feel like towing their aircraft-carrier into the Adriatic or Aegean, lol.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 18, 2022)

I'm going to post a shout-out to Dimlee's post #2339. If anyone has not watched the video there I recommend that you do.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... unless they feel like towing their aircraft-carrier into the Adriatic or Aegean, lol.


Might be awkward if they try.
The USN has the USS Truman and it's taskforce currently stationed in the Adriatic along with two Italian Navy carrier groups.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Private jets are leaving Russia for Dubai after Putin threatened to purge Russian society of traitors
> 
> 
> Many Russians have fled the country since the invasion of Ukraine, citing fears of Russian crackdowns and the country's new economy.
> ...


Dubai is the hole in the net around russian money. Those who can has been transfering money there to avoid restrictions.

From there they can move where they need it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Might be awkward if they try.
> The USN has the USS Truman and it's taskforce currently stationed in the Adriatic along with two Italian Navy carrier groups.



Mazactly. Russia simply doesn't have the ability to project power in accordance with that threat, rendering it empty words. And when you're hearing empty threats, you know you're dealing with someone who's more afraid than he is confident. 'Twas ever thus.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I'm going to post a shout-out to Dimlee's post #2339. If anyone has not watched the video there I recommend that you do.



I just finished downloading it and will watch it tonight. I enjoy round-table discussions with informed panelists such as that seems to be, and am looking forward to it.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Bluster from a desperate man. He's shaking his fist at the clouds.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Bluster from a desperate man. He's shaking his fist at the clouds.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

I knew you, of most here, would get it!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Be nice if I knew how to crop these shots or post a gif.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Be nice if I knew how to crop these shots or post a gif.



Find the image or .gif you want to post. Right-click on the image, and select "copy image address".

Come back here to the reply box. Type the command "img" between two brackets. Right-click, and select "paste". Type the command "/img", again between two brackets. Your closing command will look like this: [/img]. Your opening command will look like this:



[img].

Ignore the red "x", it's an artifact of the software. Forgive my displaying the commands in reverse order, but I had to do it that way to show you the actual commands without the software trying to make it a pic.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Just took a screenshot of the instructions. 
Dude, you’re a Dude!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Figured out the coding access here, this is what it will look like:


```
[img]your image address goes here[/img]
```

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Example:






To see how BBCode works, quote this very post, select the three vertical dots on the far right of the response box, then from the drop-down select the "[ ]" icon. That will show you how to type it in to present an image.

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## GTX (Mar 18, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here we go! These Ruskies are funny guys!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So how will Tucker Carlson react to that I wonder...


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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

We will know when Putin tells him how to react.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how will Tucker Carlson react to that I wonder...



By rolling over and presenting his belly, lapdog that he is.

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## GTX (Mar 18, 2022)

Go Canada!!!









Russia slams 'kindergarten-level libel' after Canada's UN group tweets annotated letter


Russia accuses Canada of childishly annotating a letter it sent at the United Nations seeking support for its draft resolution on providing aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## J_P_C (Mar 18, 2022)

hard to not to respect such leader

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 18, 2022)

God bless Canada! 

 that was awesome!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> So how will Tucker Carlson react to that I wonder...



He will say that all poor Russia wants is its land back, and that we should not bully them. By taking Alaska back Putin is protecting the people.

And his gullible viewers will eat it up like they always do. I actually know someone who thinks Tucker is a lighthouse in the search for truth, that he only says what true patriots think, and that he is a great example of good journalism. His words not mine.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Go Canada!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Awesome!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> hard to not to respect such leader




We had a couple of sayings about leadership in the service:

"I'd follow him into Hell."

"He couldn't lead a flight to the latrine if they had amoebic dysentery".

Clearly Zelenskyy is the former; one hell of a leader. Any country in similar circumstances would be lucky to have a leader cut from the same cloth: able to give true voice to the determination and will of his people, and able to inspire them to perform far beyond objective expectations.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

To compare --

Putin:






Zelenskyy:






One sits at the far end of a table in an ornate room. The other is walking amongst the sandbags encouraging his folk.

I know who I'd follow.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

I’m thinking President Zelenskyy just might be very akin to President Lincoln as a wartime leader.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

And a big round of applause to the three leaders who paid a visit to President Zelenskyy.

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## Jerad (Mar 18, 2022)

ZSU published a new video Bayraktar 2TB



Destroyed column RF Sumy region 17\03\22



Destroyed column 26.02.22 near Kharkov. Recording video ~15\03\22



ZSU with Stugna-P weapons destroyed tehniks RF 18\03\22



One more  ~17\03\22

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Vlad the Impaled must have access to Western press. What goes through his mind when he sees his opponent lauded by all (except Fox) and leading from the front AMONG his people?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

It really is getting harder and harder to not underestimate the bad guys.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> God bless Canada!
> 
> that was awesome!


It’s rapidly becoming my favorite state.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 18, 2022)

Hoo boy! DShK as a bipod mount infantry support rifle... From Forgotten Weapons.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m thinking President Zelenskyy just might be very akin to President Lincoln as a wartime leader.



He strikes me more as Churchillian, but then Lincoln didn't have the advantage of electrical communications to common folk. Zelinskyy's using his communications to marshal his country, on point, with a clear message. That's something Lincoln couldn't really understand given the technical limitations of the day. Zelinskyy understands that. He is, after all, a performer -- and that is not a criticism. He knows how to work an audience.

In any event, the sonofabitch knows how to move people, and that's exactly what Ukraine needs right now: a leader who isn't cowed, who inspires.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Jerad said:


> ZSU published a new video Bayraktar 2TB
> 
> 
> 
> ...




F**k yeah.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> F**k yeah.


Was that a squadron of Bayraktar 2TB?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Was that a squadron of Bayraktar 2TB?



I dunno. I just like seeing the Russian army catching a black eye or three here.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Was that a squadron of Bayraktar 2TB?



Looks more like an artillery strike to me.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He strikes me more as Churchillian, but then Lincoln didn't have the advantage of electrical communications to common folk. Zelinskyy's using his communications to marshal his country, on point, with a clear message. That's something Lincoln couldn't really understand given the technical limitations of the day. Zelinskyy understands that. He is, after all, a performer -- and that is not a criticism. He knows how to work an audience.
> 
> In any event, the sonofabitch knows how to move people, and that's exactly what Ukraine needs right now: a leader who isn't cowed, who inspires.


The reason why I'm thinking of Lincoln is that there is war in the middle of his country. Both led from their capitols within the sound of gunfire. Both trying to reunite their nations with the lands taken from them. Lincoln led a "Team of Rivals" to get the job done (great book BTW). 
President Zelenskyy is more popular than President Lincoln was, IMO. FDR and Winnie certainly could rouse their countrymen and President Zelenskyy is definitely an inspiring leader. Zelenskyy was interviewed before the invasion (really, check the link in Dimlee's post, # 2339). When questioned why wasn't he massing at the border to defend he replied "You focus on the sexy things...." The Ukrainians were building defense in depth. Was the President a brilliant tactician or let those who know run the show? That's where I see parallels with President Lincoln. Leading from the front with his guys.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Voicing an opinion over Tucker Carlson is not politics. He is just an ignorant mouth piece. I can care less what his network or political leaning is. Notice the post had nothing to do with left vs. right, or any political party.

Stop bringing up the sheepish left vs. right and liberal vs. conservative political BS. You can go to your political forums and do that.

Stop getting triggered over nothing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The reason why I'm thinking of Lincoln is that there is war in the middle of his country. Both led from their capitols within the sound of gunfire. Both trying to reunite their nations with the lands taken from them. Lincoln led a "Team of Rivals" to get the job done (great book BTW).
> President Zelenskyy is more popular than President Lincoln was, IMO. FDR and Winnie certainly could rouse their countrymen and President Zelenskyy is definitely an inspiring leader. Zelenskyy was interviewed before the invasion (really, check the link in Dimlee's post, # 2339). When questioned why wasn't he massing at the border to defend he replied "You focus on the sexy things...." The Ukrainians were building defense in depth. Was the President a brilliant tactician or let those who know run the show? That's where I see parallels with President Lincoln. Leading from the front with his guys.



I think all three -- Lincoln, Churchill, and Zelinskyy -- earn a judgment of greatness simply for holding a country together through trying times.

I haven't yet watched Dimlee's vid (that's on deck in an hour or so) but I doubt Z was designing the defensive strategy; that's why he's got generals.

I don't think Lincoln led from the front. I think his particular skill was getting rid of the deadwood so that talent could percolate upwards. He went through how many generals in the first two years? But once he got the A-team together, there you go.

None led on the battlefield much, though Churchill had a bit in WWI. Their real leadership shows up in how they marshal a battered country to struggle through tough times. Z has got more hard times in front of him and we'll see how he does. But I think his head and his heart are both in the right place.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Inside the cutting-edge Switchblade drones the U.S. is shipping to Ukraine


On Wednesday. the White House announced a new $800 million military support package for Ukraine in a bid to help that country fight back against the ongoing Russian invasion.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

How very Nürnbergesque of Putler…









Putin holds rally to bolster support as Ukraine war falters


Russian President Vladimir Putin held a rally on Friday to boost public morale, as the invasion of Ukraine he launched last month continued to meet with determined resistance, bolstered by the United States and Europe.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Russians are blocked at US border, Ukrainians are admitted


About three dozen would-be asylum seekers from Russia found themselves blocked from entering the U.S. on Friday while a group of Ukrainians flashed passports and were escorted across the border. The scene reflected a quiet but unmistakable shift in the differing treatment of Russians and...




www.yahoo.com

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## tomo pauk (Mar 18, 2022)

This never grows old:

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 18, 2022)

As I watch these videos it's clear why the Marines decided to get rid of their tanks. They are just self propelled coffins now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> As I watch these videos it's clear why the Marines decided to get rid of their tanks. They are just self propelled coffins now.



Without air or infantry support, sure. Combined arms, they certainly have a valuable role.

These videos speak more to the ineffectiveness of Russian practice than they do of armor in land warfare.

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## The Basket (Mar 18, 2022)

Main logistics supply are trucks.

So you need a vehicle to convoy and escort the trucks.

Maybe this escort vehicle should be armoured. With some form of weapons. 

In my view, the modern tank would reinvent itself time and time again.

Maybe the main battle tank could go but some form of armed armoured escort vehicle is necessary.

The effect of modern anti tank weapon is certainly having consequences as the tank cannot move for fear of getting splashed. Same with helicopter as modern manpads mean helicopter cannot be used in transport or combat role either.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 18, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Main logistics supply are trucks.
> 
> So you need a vehicle to convoy and escort the trucks.
> 
> ...



Control the air, and suppress the anti-tank fire. Infantry guards against close-in attacks. Tanks kill strong-points, or provide flanking maneuver. Convoy rolls. Not sure what I'm missing here?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Main logistics supply are trucks.
> 
> So you need a vehicle to convoy and escort the trucks.
> 
> ...


That's the benefit of smart weapons - you can stand off and lay accurate fire outside of their defensive hardware range.

Russia is suffering a high loss rate with their aircraft because they are using dumb-fire weapons, which require getting low and slow to have any chance at accuracy.

So here we are in the 21st century and Russia is doing no better with their ground attack than they did in WWII...


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Without air or infantry support, sure. Combined arms, they certainly have a valuable role.
> 
> These videos speak more to the ineffectiveness of Russian practice than they do of armor in land warfare.



The Marines got rid of them out of doctrine. Per Marine Commandant Gen. David H. Berger, should armor be needed by Marines, he would look to the Army to provide that capability.

At the annual Modern Day Marine Military Expo in September 2020, Berger emphasized that the Army's job is to be big, heavy and lethal while Marines must be light and expeditionary.

Army is huge," he said. "We need a big Army. They win our wars. The Marine Corps doesn't win the wars. We win the battles."

But the heavy emphasis specialization has some retired Marines and others in defense circles questioning the change might be an overreach that would diminish the Corps' versatility — a selling point for the service for much of its modern existence.









Goodbye, tanks: How the Marine Corps will change, and what it will lose, by ditching its armor


Commandant Gen. David H. Berger has said that should armor be needed by Marines, he would look to the Army to provide that capability.




www.marinecorpstimes.com

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## wlewisiii (Mar 18, 2022)

The marines not having organic armor is almost as bad as the army pretending that light wheeled vehicles can be substituted for armor. The Stryker is a death trap in anything other than Low Intensity Conflict and even then IED's would make me very nervous. The performance of the BTR-80 in the Russian forces shows their vulnerability.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

It was my understanding that the USMC is shifting to a more Pacific-centric fitness and in that shift, heavy armor logistics is a choke-point they want to eliminate.

It seems that they want to get back to something similar to how they operated in the PTO during WWII.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 18, 2022)

There's more to that Canada story about marking up that Russian draft proposal. After the Russian UN ambassador tweeted thanking Canada for their "kindergarten-diplomacy", our ambassador Bob Rae tweeted back "What tragically the Russian Federation knows about kindergartens is how to blow them up."



We need to settle this with a hockey game again.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 18, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> There's more to that Canada story about marking up that Russian draft proposal. After the Russian UN ambassador tweeted thanking Canada for their "kindergarten-diplomacy", our ambassador Bob Rae tweeted back "What tragically the Russian Federation knows about kindergartens is how to blow them up."
> 
> 
> 
> We need to settle this with a hockey game again.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 18, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> There's more to that Canada story about marking up that Russian draft proposal. After the Russian UN ambassador tweeted thanking Canada for their "kindergarten-diplomacy", our ambassador Bob Rae tweeted back "What tragically the Russian Federation knows about kindergartens is how to blow them up."
> 
> 
> 
> We need to settle this with a hockey game again.



That was an epic burn!!

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## at6 (Mar 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh boo fucking hoo. Poor him. He does not know how to live? Now you know how the majority of the world lives. Yet he still has a $3,300 a month allowance allowed by the sanctions. Pathetic piece of shit.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Poor" little bastard. Take him out behind the barn and give him a freshly ground jalapeno pepper enema.

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## ThomasP (Mar 19, 2022)

US V Corps has begun deploying to Europe. A few of my friends were called up in the last few weeks.

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## at6 (Mar 19, 2022)

Watched a video where civilian left his car and tried to surrender. Russian bastards shot him dead the proceeded to remove a woman and child from the same car. They were led into the woods and we all know what happened.

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## Jerad (Mar 19, 2022)

Ukrainian defenders killed generals Andrey Mordvichev, commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation 






Homepage - Mini Feed News







minifeednews.com

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## at6 (Mar 19, 2022)

The Chinese should be wondering about their military equipment since it is based on Russian technology. Do you really want to go to war with that ? Based on what has happened in the Ukraine, Russian anything is questionable.

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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

Tanks have issues.
They work in the perfect world.
As seen in Ukraine, probably not so much in the imperfect world.

Clown on a unicycle with a bazooka can operate in the perfect world.

But what happens when it all goes horribly wrong?

Tanks are big expensive items with big heavy logistics and things go wrong.

In Ukraine, we have seen tanks get stuck in mud or run out of fuel or blown up.

If infantry can now destroy tanks easily and reliably then the tank is in trouble because you're paying a lot of money for something that's destroyed easily.

Also the other option is to husband tanks and only use them in areas that are safe to do so. Which is pointless for a tank as it's supposed to be offensive.

If you have to treat tanks like glass then you have a problem.

Road transport is very vulnerable as it has to use the available road network which allows ambush and IED. Tanks need fuel and the tankers are not armoured so can be destroyed by even RPG. So a tank with no fuel is an expensive pillbox.

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## at6 (Mar 19, 2022)

Where ever the Russians have taken over, the elected city officials have been kidnapped and we all all know what most likely was their fate. Putinistas replaced them with either Russians or Ukrainian Quislings. If The Ukrainian people do manage by a miracle to defeat Russia, execute them as traitors without delay.


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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

Accordingly to the news....

Putin has put forward proposal for peace based pretty much on what I have said. So it would be interesting to see if the Ukrainian go for it.

Obviously the idea that Ukraine should disarm is nonsense but the idea that Ukraine is not threat to Russia is an odd statement as Ukraine hasn't been a threat to Russia in the first place.

Now to Crimea. The proposed is that Ukraine accept Crimea is now Russian and live with it. 

Brass tacks. Can Ukraine take back Crimea.? Let's say no. Will the Russians defend Crimea?let's say yes 

So Ukraine giving up on Crimea is a case of reality as it's not getting it back anyhow and it's sacrifice what it doesn't have anyway.

In Ye olde days, this is how wars were fought. You go to war, sign a peace treaty, get some land and then go home. Franco Prussian war is a good example. 

Which is another odd concept as Putin is fighting for land which could be considered medieval in its thinking.

So would Ukraine give up on Crimea or the Donbass? For peace and withdraw of Russian forces from the Ukraine of 2020…? We shall see....but I believe the answer will be yes.


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## at6 (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Accordingly to the news....
> 
> Putin has put forward proposal for peace based pretty much on what I have said. So it would be interesting to see if the Ukrainian go for it.
> 
> ...


Regaining Crimea is a lost cause. On other issues, no compromise under any circumstances. Any victory for Poot hog is out of the question. Exterminate all Russian forces on the ground and make that Son of a Rat Turd beg to stop the genocide of the Ukrainian culture. Arrest him and hang his a$$ from a tree in public. It's a damn shame that a Daisy Cutter didn't land in the stadium during his rally and speech. May God forgive me but it would have been so satisfying.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 19, 2022)

The T 72 series tank was first produced as far back as 1969. Modified versions are still in use but they are not state of the art so to speak.

Abrams, Challenger, and Leopard tanks are far tougher opponents in modern terms. This is all a good example of the state of the Russian armed forces.

It's also why Russian tanks don't stand up to more modern hand held AT weapons.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 19, 2022)

A good meme: picture.

Putin: So what's going on? Are we winning?
Aide: How would I put it... Second place.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 19, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Ukrainian defenders killed generals Andrey Mordvichev, commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Another general KIA? How many so far? When was the last war so many generals get KIA, WW2?

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## tomo pauk (Mar 19, 2022)

Thank you, Lithuania:

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## Dimlee (Mar 19, 2022)

Believe it or not, but Chornobayevka airbase near Kherson was hit by Ukrainian artillery again - for the sixth time - last night and again Russian equipment was destroyed.
RF army continued to use the airfield after five strikes. Where is that groundhog?

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## tomo pauk (Mar 19, 2022)

There is a lot of people that are afraid of this special forces' unit, that sports the immortal 'Idi na huy' slogan:

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Tanks have issues.
> They work in the perfect world.
> As seen in Ukraine, probably not so much in the imperfect world.
> 
> ...


As a former tanker, let me simply say that what we're seeing in the Ukraine is typical. It happens every time you commit tanks without proper combined arms support. Tanks need infantry and artillery. Artillery needs tanks and infantry. Infantry needs artillery and tanks. Of the three only the infantry can get by without the others for a short time but without support, you can only run an insurgency for the long term. 

I have seen in videos from this war, over and over, of tanks operating without infantry support and getting ambushed as a result. And when columns are ambushed they do not know anti-ambush drills (at it's simplest - turn into the ambush and charge firing at anything that moves) and in their panic loose far more as a result. 

The FSU (former Soviet Union) tank designs have significant flaws but can provide appropriate support for their branch of the combined arms triad if the logistics, training and maintenance is up to snuff. When any of them, much less all of them, are fails then you have nothing but coffins for three men each. 

These deaths lead to fury, fear and panic which leads to the war crimes we see as well because the troops have no discipline or training to fall back on and they take it out on civilians instead since to go up against the highly trained and disciplined Ukrainian army has been shown to be, essentially, suicide. Discipline is not an end in itself but without it, nothing else can be made to happen. The Russian army is even worse than the US Army of 1975 ~ 1980 in this respect. But we got over the debacle that was Vietnam; they still haven't gotten over Afghanistan.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Another general KIA? How many so far? When was the last war so many generals get KIA, WW2?


Mordichev would make the 5th.

So far, the list of top officers (not including the most recent General) killed in the Ukraine, is:

Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky
Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov
Maj. Gen. Andrey Kolesnikov
Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev
Lt. Col. Dmitry Safronov
Lt. Col. Denis Glebov
Guard Col. Konstantin Zizevsky
Guard Lt. Col. Yuri Agarkov
Col. Andrei Zakharov
Gen. Magomed Tushaev (Chechen)
Col. Vladimir Zhoga (seperatist commander)

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## ARTESH (Mar 19, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Another general KIA? How many so far? When was the last war so many generals get KIA, WW2?


If you accept Executed and Assassinated as KIA, it would be Iran's Revolution of 1979.

81 Generals, including several retired ones, were Killed, executed or Assassinated.

If you add the incidents leading to the events, the number would rise to 115 successful execution / assasinations, and 22 failed attempts.

If you add "High Ranking Officers", the list goes beyond 750.

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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

I ain't no expert but me is thinking that Mr Putin won't sign nutin that involves his execution or possible war trial.

I ain't clairvoyant but that's probs a no.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Accordingly to the news....
> 
> Putin has put forward proposal for peace based pretty much on what I have said. So it would be interesting to see if the Ukrainian go for it.
> 
> ...



I think that is exactly what will happen, but its a mistake. Putin will be back for the rest, and he won’t make the same mistakes.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 19, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Ukrainian defenders killed generals Andrey Mordvichev, commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation


Kudos to these Generals for fighting alongside their men. But if the Generals are at the front who’s at the rear managing strategy?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Why allow Putin to keep anything? I do agree with The Basket and Der Adler as to what will probably happen but hear me out. Ukraine is winning so bargain from strength. Why even talk about ceding any territory? If Putler knows he's starting off with Crimea, and Donbas, he'll demand more. Meanwhile, his army is being whittled down, displaying its incompetence for all the world to see. Putin may be on the ropes. Don't make it easier for him. Force him to bargain rather than let him think he keeps what he stole. The longer Russia is stuck in there, the more losses while being humiliated. Putler's grip just might be weakening a bit. If you are one of his generals, the future ain't looking too good. Take the rap for him and die or take a bullet and die. The Russian economy ain't to healthy right now. Not good for the guy in charge.
Now we play hard ball. No Western "timidity". Donbas, Luhansk and Crimea? Referendum time. For every Russian troop there, one each from several other nations. De-militarization of Belorussia. No one way disarmament. He don't like? Too bad. We keep talking until his country is broken. 
He's going to want an out. If he still wants to keep his phony baloney job he will be forced to bargain. However, make it crystal clear that he is losing something. No win at all. We get all Ferengi on his ass!

I think that Crimea is a lost cause but maybe not. Make Putler sweat. Make him howl! It is very cavalier for me to say we'll fight to the last Ukrainian. I don't want to see a replay of the Sudetenland where Czechoslovakia is distributed among great powers with no say in its fate at all.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Kudos to these Generals for fighting alongside their men. But if the Generals are at the front who’s at the rear managing strategy?


Sycophants.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Were those flight suits standard Russian issue as in before the invasion?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Why allow Putin to keep anything? I do agree with The Basket and Der Adler as to what will probably happen but hear me out. Ukraine is winning so bargain from strength. Why even talk about ceding any territory? If Putler knows he's starting off with Crimea, and Donbas, he'll demand more. Meanwhile, his army is being whittled down, displaying its incompetence for all the world to see. Putin may be on the ropes. Don't make it easier for him. Force him to bargain rather than let him think he keeps what he stole. The longer Russia is stuck in there, the more losses while being humiliated. Putler's grip just might be weakening a bit. If you are one of his generals, the future ain't looking too good. Take the rap for him and die or take a bullet and die. The Russian economy ain't to healthy right now. Not good for the guy in charge.
> Now we play hard ball. No Western "timidity". Donbas, Luhansk and Crimea? Referendum time. For every Russian troop there, one each from several other nations. De-militarization of Belorussia. No one way disarmament. He don't like? Too bad. We keep talking until his country is broken.
> He's going to want an out. If he still wants to keep his phony baloney job he will be forced to bargain. However, make it crystal clear that he is losing something. No win at all. We get all Ferengi on his ass!
> 
> I think that Crimea is a lost cause but maybe not. Make Putler sweat. Make him howl! It is very cavalier for me to say we'll fight to the last Ukrainian. I don't want to see a replay of the Sudetenland where Czechoslovakia is distributed among great powers with no say in its fate at all.



I agree with you, and that’s what I have been advocating all along. If Ukraine gives anything, Putler will see that as weakness and want a bigger piece of the pie. Ceding land for peace is just kicking the can down the road.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

I got go to stop using my phone to post here. I make so many grammar mistakes. lol

Piece instead of peace…lol


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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Same here, bro'.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I got go to stop using my phone to post here. I make so many grammar mistakes. lol
> 
> Piece instead of peace…lol


It's actually quite apt to me. Peace is not peace if you have been taken to pieces.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Kudos to these Generals for fighting alongside their men. But if the Generals are at the front who’s at the rear managing strategy?


Several high rankings officers were specifically targeted by Ukrainian forces because of poor commsec. 
The frequency of high ranking commanders being caught in forward areas, is because the Kremlin is ordering them up there to get things moving.

They were not supposed to be up there initially - they are not fighting alongside their men, but they are at least dying with them...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Several high rankings officers were specifically targeted by Ukrainian forces because of poor commsec.


This is another aspect of the institutional memory of the Russian Army which baffles me. They got annihilated at Tannenberg in 1914 in large part due to inadequate comsec, and then in the opening days of Barbarossa the suffered huge defeats in some cases due to poor comsec ... yet here they are again.

I wonder if their equivalent of our Army's Training and Doctrine Command has been starved of funding in order to build weapons? They seem to be repeating so many grievous and yet elementary mistakes.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Starved of funding to buy chateaus, dachas and mega yachts?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

I am also curious as to what they are teaching in officer school.

I know that in their public school system (particularly during Soviet years) a great deal of what actually happened in Imperial Russia was glazed over and so too, details about the "Great Patriotic War".
So with all the historical wrangling and editing, perhaps unfavorable situations, losses and failures have been forgotten?

In the early stages of Putler's invasion, I was convinced that the amateur performance of the mighty Russian Army was a ruse, because there was no way a military supposedly ranked up there in the world's top three could be so inept.

It appears that I was wrong...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Were those flight suits standard Russian issue as in before the invasion?


Russian Cosmonaut flight suits are typically blue.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 19, 2022)

Especially considering they are now down at four under the third largest, The Ukrainian Farmers Federation which has undergone a phenomenal armament
increase in a very short space of time. Efficient use of facilities and good logistic plans - maybe Vlad should pay them for some advice.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Especially considering they are now down at four under the third largest, The Ukrainian Farmers Federation which has undergone a phenomenal armament
> increase in a very short space of time. Efficient use of facilities and good logistic plans - maybe Vlad should pay them for some advice.


I understand that the Ukranian government also stated that any Russian vehicles they happened find (and keep) will be tax exempt.

They have been kindly "donating" working equipment that they've "found" to the Ukraine Army, though.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am also curious as to what they are teaching in officer school.
> 
> I know that in their public school system (particularly during Soviet years) a great deal of what actually happened in Imperial Russia was glazed over and so too, details about the "Great Patriotic War".
> So with all the historical wrangling and editing, perhaps unfavorable situations, losses and failures have been forgotten?
> ...


Same here. Now he’s dipping into his front line units. The only non-nuclear might he could threaten us with would have to be Chinese.


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## JDCAVE (Mar 19, 2022)

Evidently some of these cruise missiles have come from naval vessels off Odessa. I have seen film footage from Odessa showing these vessels lined up off-shore. Does Ukraine have Exocet Missiles or equivalent to take these vessels out? Can they be provided by NATO or is that equipment too difficult to deploy?

Jim


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## buffnut453 (Mar 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> As a former tanker, let me simply say that what we're seeing in the Ukraine is typical. It happens every time you commit tanks without proper combined arms support. Tanks need infantry and artillery. Artillery needs tanks and infantry. Infantry needs artillery and tanks. Of the three only the infantry can get by without the others for a short time but without support, you can only run an insurgency for the long term.
> 
> I have seen in videos from this war, over and over, of tanks operating without infantry support and getting ambushed as a result. And when columns are ambushed they do not know anti-ambush drills (at it's simplest - turn into the ambush and charge firing at anything that moves) and in their panic loose far more as a result.
> 
> ...



Entirely agree. You should have infantry sweeping the flanks of the tank advance to identify, and preferably neuralize, ambush points. 

I was also going to make the same point as 

 WARSPITER
. The T-64 and T72 are 1960s vintage designs. Yes, they've had upgrades but they're still considerably more vulnerable than either the M1 Abrams or Challenge 2. Bolting on ERA will improve protection somewhat but, as we're seeing, it's not sufficient against modern AT weapons.

All this brings me back to the point I made a few pages back...I just can't comprehend what sort of war the Russian forces were expecting. Unsupported tank columns smacks of expecting "Kursk v2.0" which was NEVER going to happen in Ukraine...but even at Kursk, the largest tank battle in history with approx 10,000 tanks employed by both sides, there were still significantly more infantry (over 2 million soldiers on both sides).

I wonder if we're seeing the impact of ingrained, decades-long requirement to provide the "appropriate" answer up the chain, instead of the answer that the facts support?

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## Jerad (Mar 19, 2022)

Russian column was ambushed, the video appeared on youtube 18/03/22 Information about place and time not have.



Ukrainian soldier was wounded 18\03\22 near Kiev (Or Chernigiv)



Destroyed column technic RF 14\03\22



One more column technic RF ~18\03\22



Destroyed technic RF near Izyum(Kharkov region) 16\03\22

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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

First rule is to stop the bleeding.

If you're chased by the tiger then it's not time to hang about.it's not about 10 years time but all about 10 seconds time.

Future Putin is future Ukraine's problem. Have to deal with the present.

If it makes ya feel better then at least you can say Ukraine has no other choice.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> First rule is to stop the bleeding.
> 
> If you're chased by the tiger then it's not time to hang about.it's not about 10 years time but all about 10 seconds time.
> 
> ...



And give the Russians a few years to rebuild their forces and come back for seconds? First rule of thumb in training both animals and people is that you never reward bad behavior.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> First rule is to stop the bleeding.
> 
> If you're chased by the tiger then it's not time to hang about.it's not about 10 years time but all about 10 seconds time.
> 
> ...



Sure, kick the can down the road so your children bleed later…

No thanks, You fight now so your children have a future.

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## Jerad (Mar 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Особливо враховуючи, що вони зараз опустилися на чотири місця під третьою за величиною, Українською федерацією фермерів, яка зазнала феноменального озброєння.
> збільшення за дуже короткий проміжок часу. Ефективне використання засобів і хороші логістичні плани – можливо, Владу варто заплатити їм за пораду.



Cutting video with trophies Agro-Farm Battalion

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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

Children are bleeding now.

The wicked don't get punished and the meek don't inherent the earth.

Putin's economy is about to do a nosedive into oblivion and his army is short of a tank or two.

Putin is now in such a weak position that he is now only getting weaker.

If it weren't for his nukes then I would say it's all over.

Russia is in this situation because of all it's weaknesses. Not it's strength. And it's weakness will only get worse.


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## GTX (Mar 19, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Mar 19, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Russian column was ambushed, the video appeared on youtube 18/03/22 Information about place and time not have.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Is it me or does the tactical performance by the Russian soldiers in that first video seem pretty poor? They're very slow to respond, take a long time to get over the barrier, and are bunched together. That strikes me as poor behaviour for infantry...or am I missing something?

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## GTX (Mar 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Mar 19, 2022)

Another reason why I believe the invention of religion was humankind's greatest mistake:









Why Putin's invasion of Ukraine is an utterly modern holy war


It is not possible to understand the war in Ukraine without understanding the way faith is weaponised, how religion as identity can exert a deadly hold, writes Stan Grant.




www.abc.net.au


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Children are bleeding now.
> 
> The wicked don't get punished and the meek don't inherent the earth.
> 
> ...



And if you concede now the children bleed longer. Its tucking your tail between your legs so future generations have to fight an even greater battle. Not the present generations problem though, for a few years peace.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

Don’t take me wrong, you should always try and negotiate for peace, but when you have them on their heals you negotiate from a point of strength. Anything otherwise, including ceding your sovereign territory only tells them you will cower and they can bully you more.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

Theodore Roosevelt said it best"
"Speak softly, but carry a big stick".

Also had it pointed out to me that virtually every significant war that Russia has been victorious in, involved the Ukraine.
So perhaps it wasn't Russia after all

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

If you needed any more evidence that Putin plans to keep going after swallowing Ukraine,

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Cutting video with trophies Agro-Farm Battalion




The spirit of the people shines through in that montage.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Is it me or does the tactical performance by the Russian soldiers in that first video seem pretty poor? They're very slow to respond, take a long time to get over the barrier, and are bunched together. That strikes me as poor behaviour for infantry...or am I missing something?



What struck me was that in taking cover on the berm of the road, they opened themselves up to enfilade fire from cover. If the Ukrainians had set a sniper or LMG enfilading from up the road a couple hundred yards, those guys would have been decimated ... especially as bunched up as they are, to your point.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And if you concede now the children bleed longer. Its tucking your tail between your legs so future generations have to fight an even greater battle. Not the present generations problem though, for a few years peace.



Doesn't anyone remember the interlude between Versailles and Poland?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> If you needed any more evidence that Putin plans to keep going after swallowing Ukraine,




If I was Modova, I'd be submitting my application to join NATO lickety split!

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## GTX (Mar 19, 2022)

It's fascinating to consider the similarities between the Ukrainian war and the First Soviet-Finnish War  including the supply of weapons, soviet losses, foreign volunteers etc.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> It's fascinating to consider the similarities between the Ukrainian war and the First Soviet-Finnish War  including the supply of weapons, soviet losses, foreign volunteers etc.


In the run up I was telling people that someone should be whispering "Winter War" in Putin's ear to warn him. I knew that the people and army of Ukraine were going to be a very tough nut to crack but what I didn't expect was that the Russian Army would be as bad as the Red Army was coming off the purges.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

Oops! Duplicate post!


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russian Cosmonaut flight suits are typically blue.


Ok but nobody at Roscosmos notice that the cosmonaut was wearing a yellow suit? 

Or did he smuggled it to the capsule? 

One can smuggle something that big to a spacecraft? 

If this was intentional, where the hell he think he would land? 

Do he plan to desert in orbit and plea for political asylum?

To me it looks like more a coincidence than any thing else... but reality could be stranger than fiction so who knows? Perhaps only the cosmonaut knows the true.


Jerad said:


> Cutting video with trophies Agro-Farm Battalion



For me is truly amazing all the abandoned equipment. The scores we have seen. Nobody thought of blowing it or bobby trap or disable at least?

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## Glider (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And give the Russians a few years to rebuild their forces and come back for seconds? First rule of thumb in training both animals and people is that you never reward bad behavior.


It took the Russians a lot of time and a lot of money tyo develop their army to this level. To rebuild it again with an uncertain but almost certainly badly damaged economy and political fallout will take at least ten years. In that time who knows what the world will be like.
Personally I believe that China will be a far greater threat to Russia than Europe.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> It took the Russians a lot of time and a lot of money tyo develop their army to this level. To rebuild it again with an uncertain but almost certainly badly damaged economy and political fallout will take at least ten years. In that time who knows what the world will be like.
> Personally I believe that China will be a far greater threat to Russia than Europe.



I can't argue with the last point, but given Putin's grip on both the economy and the media, I'm not so sure it would take as long as you postulate. I could certainly be wrong about that, but I think he could squeeze out a bit of money from oligarchs who are beholden to him for their wealth.

Of course, I favor planning for the worst and hoping for the best, so my view could certainly be wrong.

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## Glider (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I can't argue with the last point, but given Putin's grip on both the economy and the media, I'm not so sure it would take as long as you postulate. I could certainly be wrong about that, but I think he could squeeze out a bit of money from oligarchs who are beholden to him for their wealth.
> 
> Of course, I favor planning for the worst and hoping for the best, so my view could certainly be wrong.


None of us really know what will happen. I was thinking along the following lines

1 Money will be tight
2 if money is tight then modern technology will be expensive and in short supply
3 His army needs more modern equipment 
4 The morale of the Army and Airforce will be basically shot to bits and need rebuilding
5 The training of all levels of the Army and Airforce will need fundamental change from the most basic level to cover the most complex scenario's
6 China is a fast growing and very capable nation technically and will no doubt look at what happened to Russia and will learn from their mistakes
7 East Russia has a huge landmass, small population and a lot of potential mineral wealth. 
8 China has a huge population and will have a need for those resources

15 - put 7 and 8 together, and you have a significant potential risk of a very worrying clash

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> None of us really know what will happen. I was thinking along the following lines
> 
> 1 Money will be tight
> 2 if money is tight then modern technology will be expensive and in short supply
> ...



I wasn't really thinking about Russia and China fighting it out in the East, but that's an interesting point and worth a bit of thought. I was thinking more of Russia reconstituting its forces in order to reconstruct the old Tsarist borders while maintaining an alert against NATO, which I think will be much more wary going forward. Of course, your point about Chinese desire for Russian resources affects that, but I think the Chinese would much prefer to gain them by economic leverage than brute force; they seem to prefer that approach.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wasn't really thinking about Russia and China fighting it out in the East, but that's an interesting point and worth a bit of thought. I was thinking more of Russia reconstituting its forces in order to reconstruct the old Tsarist borders while maintaining an alert against NATO, which I think will be much more wary going forward. Of course, your point about Chinese desire for Russian resources affects that, but I think the Chinese would much prefer to gain them by economic leverage than brute force; they seem to prefer that approach.


I agree. I don't really see how China's expansion into Eastern Russia benefits them especially since now that they are having their own set of economic issues. Russia will be desperate after this war and will probably be willing to give the resources away pretty cheaply for any help. I don't think China needs Lebensraum, they need raw materials and markets. The US and EU have opened the door for them, and they are playing the economic empire game very well. A war for territory would just screw that up. But who knows? Anything can happen in this crazy world.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> If I was Modova, I'd be submitting my application to join NATO lickety split!


Remember, Moldova is former Romanian territory with a larger ethnic Romanian population and there have been recent (as of late last year) talks about reunification.
Romania has stated on several occasions they will defend it if nessecary.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, Moldova is former Romanian territory with a larger ethnic Romanian population and there have been recent (as of late last year) talks about reunification.
> Romania has stated on several occasions they will defend it if nessecary.


Yep and as a NATO member, there would be article 5 considerations there as well.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

Given their presidents previous occupation, this seems appropriate somehow...

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## Dimlee (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Mordichev would make the 5th.
> 
> So far, the list of top officers (not including the most recent General) killed in the Ukraine, is:
> 
> ...


One more today, probably near Mariupol:
Capt. 1st rank, deputy commander of the Black Sea Navy Andrey Paliy.








Заступник командувача Чорноморського флоту РФ Андрій Палій – теж “200-й”


Українські сили оборони ліквідували заступника командувача Чорноморського фоту РФ з військово-політичної роботи, капітана 1 рангу Андрія Палія.




novynarnia.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, Moldova is former Romanian territory with a larger ethnic Romanian population and there have been recent (as of late last year) talks about reunification.
> Romania has stated on several occasions they will defend it if nessecary.


According to my contacts in Moldova, urgent unification with Romania is considered as one of the emergency options if the Russian threat becomes imminent. Without the separatist Transnistria, of course.

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## Dimlee (Mar 19, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I agree. I don't really see how China's expansion into Eastern Russia benefits them especially since now that they are having their own set of economic issues. Russia will be desperate after this war and will probably be willing to give the resources away pretty cheaply for any help. I don't think China needs Lebensraum, they need raw materials and markets. The US and EU have opened the door for them, and they are playing the economic empire game very well. A war for territory would just screw that up. But who knows? Anything can happen in this crazy world.


From all "unequal treaties" that were imposed on China, only treaties with Russian Empire are still valid.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> None of us really know what will happen. I was thinking along the following lines
> 
> 1 Money will be tight
> 2 if money is tight then modern technology will be expensive and in short supply
> ...


Frighteningly informative.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> From all "unequal treaties" that were imposed on China, only treaties with Russian Empire are still valid.


Perhaps it's time to re-negotiate some treaties, as long as we're discussing financing, eh Comrade?

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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

If Ukraine wins and gets its 2014 borders back and make off like bandits then it still has a problem.

Putin and Russia. Which are still there!

Not read a word on how Putin or Russian power can be cut off. How is that possible?

End of the day even the best case scenario is still not satisfactory as the root cause of the problem is still there.

So unless someone has a foolproof plan then apart from wish dreams and moonbeams it's going to be a tight one.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 19, 2022)

Yes, Russia and Putin will still be there. Russia will always be there. Putin, maybe not so much. 
Ukraine has had some history with hostile neighbors. It comes with the geography.


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## The Basket (Mar 19, 2022)

Replace Putin with Putin 2. The Empire strikes back.

Problem is there are only problem and not solution.

If you look at Western rigged regime change over the last few years then boy howdy I ain't touching that with a barge pole.

There is no solutions. No happy endings and no lived happily ever after.

Just which lesser evil you wish to pick.

And there going to be plenty evil to choose from.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> If Ukraine wins and gets its 2014 borders back and make off like bandits then it still has a problem.
> 
> Putin and Russia. Which are still there!
> 
> ...



So Ukraine should just say fuck it, go ahead take our lands, and come back for some whenever you feel like it.

Why should Ukraine do that?
If you home was threatened by someone would you be ok with doing that?

Dreams and moonbeams? lol I’m not even going to go there…


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Replace Putin with Putin 2. The Empire strikes back.
> 
> Problem is there are only problem and not solution.
> 
> ...



And that means they should just give in to Russia’s demands?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

Giving up now and giving into Putlers demands would be a slap in the face to the men and women, both military and civilian who have fought so bravely the last 4 weeks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, Moldova is former Romanian territory with a larger ethnic Romanian population and there have been recent (as of late last year) talks about reunification.
> Romania has stated on several occasions they will defend it if nessecary.



If the ole memory chipset is working right, they claimed Bessarabia in 39 or 40 as part of the Ribbentrop Pact. That's most of modern Moldova. I don't doubt that if they succeed in Ukraine now, Moldova is next on the menu, in a few years.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

First of all, the Ukraine is a sovereign nation with internationally recognized borders.

There is no "agreement" or "concession", Russia has illegally invaded with the intention of conquering that sovereign nation regardless.

This cannot be tolerated, condoned nor appeased.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Yep and as a NATO member, there would be article 5 considerations there as well.



Moldova is not a member of NATO -- Article Five would not apply.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps it's time to re-negotiate some treaties, as long as we're discussing financing, eh Comrade?



Right, the Russians weren't shy in claiming Port Arthur.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Moldova is not a member of NATO -- Article Five would not apply.


Romania is. If they rejoin Romania and Putin refuses to accept that, then it will apply.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

The Basket said:


> If Ukraine wins and gets its 2014 borders back and make off like bandits then it still has a problem.
> 
> Putin and Russia. Which are still there!
> 
> ...



Of course Ukraine will always have that problem. Big neighbors can make for a tough neighborhood. 

But what's being said is not "wish dreams and moonbeams", rather, it's that not fighting it out now invites further bullying and depredation. The Ukrainians ain't surrendering, and I admire that. We've got a saying down here in the South -- "It ain't the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog."

Ukraine is a small dog with a bunch of fight.

They don't need to win. They need to not lose. I don't think they will lose.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Romania is. If they rejoin Romania and Putin refuses to accept that, then it will apply.



Gotcha, sorry my reading was subpar.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't doubt that if they succeed in Ukraine now, Moldova is next on the menu, in a few years.


Agreed

Didn’t the leader of Belarus not show forces moving into Moldova on his map?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course Ukraine will always have that problem. Big neighbors can make for a tough neighborhood.
> 
> But what's being said is not "wish dreams and moonbeams", rather, it's that not fighting it out now invites further bullying and depredation. The Ukrainians ain't surrendering, and I admire that. We've got a saying down here in the South -- "It ain't the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog."
> 
> ...



Very good point. Ukraine does not have to win, it just has to hold on long enough that Russia can’t.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 19, 2022)

Zelenskyy calls Mariupol terror a war crime; Russia uses first hypersonic missile: March 19 recap


Evacuations from besieged cities proceeded Saturday along eight of 10 humanitarian corridors, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed
> 
> Didn’t the leader of Belarus not show forces moving into Moldova on his map?


May have been Transneistra, which is A Russian occupied territory - which has a similar history to Donnas, too.
Though I don't doubt that Moldova is in Putler's sights.

Unlike the Ukraine, however, Moldova is a poor nation and has virtually no military.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So Ukraine should just say fuck it, go ahead take our lands, and come back for some whenever you feel like it.


No, they shouldn’t. Has anyone here suggested that? But Ukraine can’t take Moscow and can’t take out Putin - instead Ukraine must focus on achievable goals. The best Ukraine can do is take back as much land as possible before agreeing to an armistice and beginning negotiations. My worry is that the West, losing interest and wanting to return to global business, pressures Ukraine to accept the first olive branch no matter their situation.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, they shouldn’t. Has anyone here suggested that? But Ukraine can’t take Moscow and can’t take out Putin - instead Ukraine must focus on achievable goals. The best Ukraine can do is take back as much land as possible before agreeing to an armistice and beginning negotiations. My worry is that the West, losing interest and wanting to return to global business, pressures Ukraine to accept the first olive branch no matter their situation.



Sure there are. Read the posts. The Basket thinks Ukraine needs to agree to Russia’s demands for short term peace. Those demands are a neutral state (no issues with this), recognizing Crimea as Russian, and giving up the disputed areas that Russia recognizes as independent.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My worry is that the West, losing interest and wanting to return to global business, pressures Ukraine to accept the first olive branch no matter their situation.


The West won't lose interest.
The Ukraine has been part of NATO programs and EU cooperation since the 90's - as far as the Ukraine accepting any olive branch, it will be only when Russia and it's operatives leave it's sovereign boundaries.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The West won't lose interest.
> The Ukraine has been part of NATO programs and EU cooperation since the 90's - as far as the Ukraine accepting any olive branch, it will be only when Russia and it's operatives leave it's sovereign boundaries.



The west cannot and will not lose interest because what happens here is in the west’s interests. If Russia is successful here they will grow bolder and will want an even bigger piece of the pie.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The west cannot and will not lose interest because what happens here is in the west’s interests. If Russia is successful here they will grow bolder and will want an even bigger piece of the pie.


What would reassure me and likely Ukraine is if the USA and NATO declared unambiguously and publicly the terms they are willing to accept as an official end of the conflict. I suspect the return of Crimea will not be one of them, but a full or partial (to pre-war lines) return of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to full Ukraine control will likely be one.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Ask anyway (demand). Then bargain.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)

Even the cats are fighting in Ukraine...

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## JDCAVE (Mar 20, 2022)

I cannot see the Putin regime in Russia surviving the combined debacle in Ukraine and the crushing demise of the economy due to sanctions. It might take several years, but remember the collapse of the Soviet Union was an economic one on the heels of the prolonged war in Afghanistan. While we may not know how this happens at this time, I cannot see how Putin will not survive this. Something has to break here.

Jim

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would reassure me and likely Ukraine is if the USA and NATO declared unambiguously and publicly the terms they are willing to accept as an official end of the conflict. I suspect the return of Crimea will not be one of them, but a full or partial (to pre-war lines) return of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to full Ukraine control will likely be one.


What makes you think the USA and NATO can declare terms? You cannot declare terms if you are not at war. The only country that has any right to declare terms is the sovereign state of Ukraine. It is their country, and they get to decide.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I cannot see the Putin regime in Russia surviving the combined debacle in Ukraine and the crushing demise of the economy due to sanctions. It might take several years, but remember the collapse of the Soviet Union was an economic one on the heels of the prolonged war in Afghanistan. While we may not see how this happens at this time, but Putin will not survive this. Something has to break here.
> 
> Jim



I think thats the point of the Sanctions besides impacting his ability to wage war. Cause economic disaster and force an uprising.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The only country that has any right to declare terms is the sovereign state of Ukraine.


If that’s true why do you ask why the USA and NATO cannot declare terms? Haven’t you answered your own question? You don’t need us for that, a mirror will suffice.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If that’s true why do you ask why the USA and NATO cannot declare terms? Haven’t you answered your own question? You don’t need us for that, a mirror will suffice.









Huh? You said the USA and NATO should declare terms. I asked what makes you think they can.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion


Vladimir Putin isn't happy, and it's triggering infighting and upheaval in his government.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Zelenskyy calls Mariupol terror a war crime; Russia uses first hypersonic missile: March 19 recap


Evacuations from besieged cities proceeded Saturday along eight of 10 humanitarian corridors, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

Just to recap, the U.S. and/or NATO is not officially involved in the Russo-Ukraine war.
As such, ANY agreements between the belligerent nations have to be concluded by those nations.

The UN, as worthless as it is, could (in a perfect world) start a peace brokering process, but not NATO nor the U.S., Japan, Australia or any other nation.

Keep in mind that Putler sees NATO as a threat to his Empire and the U.S. as Russia's arch-rival. Turkey tried to broker a peace before the shooting started and the Kremlin dismissed Erdogan.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What makes you think the USA and NATO can*not* declare terms? You cannot declare terms if you are not at war. The only country that has any right to declare terms is the sovereign state of Ukraine. It is their country, and they get to decide.


A little typo here? Didn't you mean to ask if he thought USA and NATO *can*, rather than *cannot,* declare terms?
Makes more sense that way. Damn that auto-correct, anyway!

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## WARSPITER (Mar 20, 2022)

Either way the point of this whole thing is a sovereign nation being invaded. A sovereign nation has the right to
set it's own terms. Look at history - 1937 - a sovereign state did not get to set it's own terms and was carved up.
Then two years later the can is picked up down the road, the lid was opened, and out came the worms.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 20, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Either way the point of this whole thing is a sovereign nation being invaded. A sovereign nation has the right to
> set it's own terms. Look at history - 1937 - a sovereign state did not get to set it's own terms and was carved up.
> Then two years later the can is picked up down the road, the lid was opened, and out came the worms.


I agree, a sovereign nation being invaded should have the sole right to set its terms with the invader once the war is over. But, as you mention in those 1930s examples, the great powers can interfere in surprising ways.


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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

A few brass tacks.

Russia invaded Ukraine and probably would have succeeded.

The only reason Ukraine is doing as well as it is because NATO are sending billions of dollars worth of arms to them. Probably also intel and who knows what else. Money and supplies by the truck load.

The West is funding and supplying and supporting Ukraine in this war. That's an act of war in itself. Russia is fighting NATO by proxy.

So NATO has the whip hand and has a lot more in this fight. So absolutely NATO can dictate terms. Ukraine would be back to 2014 if NATO suddenly gave up.

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Stopping Hitler cost about 100 million dead people.

That's a very expensive cost.

You don't stop war by doing more war.

If you can negotiate a peaceful treaty which is acceptable to both sides then that would be better. 

Of course you don't surrender but if the reality says otherwise then not much you can do.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> A little typo here? Didn't you mean to ask if he thought USA and NATO *can*, rather than *cannot,* declare terms?
> Makes more sense that way. Damn that auto-correct, anyway!



Ugggh! Yeah, stupid typo. I need to use my laptop and not my phone. He said that he wants the US and NATO to declare terms. I meant to ask how he thought they could do that. They cannot.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> A few brass tacks.
> 
> Russia invaded Ukraine and probably would have succeeded.
> 
> ...



How does NATO get to dictate terms? Explain. 

Last I checked NATO, nor Russia declared war on each other.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Stopping Hitler cost about 100 million dead people.
> 
> That's a very expensive cost.
> 
> ...



How is giving up your lands a treaty acceptable and successful to Ukraine?

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Acceptable in the idea that things could be worse. Not acceptable in that things are good.

My father in law had bad cancer. He was given 2 choices. Be cut up or die.

He got plenty cut up. I can say that you wouldn't want that one bit. But it was acceptable because of the alternative.

NATO can tell Ukraine to do whatever it wants. It is the money and power behind Ukraine. So Ukraine must do what NATO says or be cut off.

Now there maybe a window of opportunity coming up soon. From what I read by 1st June, if war continued then Russia will be totally and utterly exhausted. There ability to fight a conventional war is so degraded as to be worthless. Let's see what happens then.


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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

Any news from Circus Maximus???

Is there any report about total losses, both in manpower and equipment???

I'm interested about how many Traitors and Terrorists F***ed up!, Specially Terrorists.

Terrorists in my dictionary is "Checheni Muslim Mercenaries" in your dictionary, and Traitors, obviously, refers to Ukrainian Separatists.


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## MIflyer (Mar 20, 2022)

Now this has got to seriously P.O. a certain somebody. From PJ Media:

"An amazing event in space occurred on Friday when three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station wearing flight suits of yellow and blue — the colors of the Ukrainian flag."

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

According to Russia the flight suits are yellow cos they yellow.

They don't signifies nothing.

Very very strange though.

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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Stopping Hitler cost about 100 million dead people.
> 
> That's a very expensive cost.
> 
> ...


China and Russia control Southern and Northern Seas (The Caspian Sea and The Persian Gulf), without any wars. No one ever dare to resist them.

The Arabs rule over my country for near 50 years. Also no one ever dare to resist them!!!

You just need a few bastards and traitors to overcome anywhere, without war.

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## Jerad (Mar 20, 2022)

Destroyed and abandoned tehniks. Published by ZSU 20\03\22



Cooperation between the Main Directorate Ministry of Defense Ukraine and the Georgian Legion in the enemy's rear. Published 20\03\22



ZSU Battalion AZOV BTR-4 Bucephalus. Published 20\03\22

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The West is funding and supplying and supporting Ukraine in this war. That's an act of war in itself. Russia is fighting NATO by proxy.
> 
> So NATO has the whip hand and has a lot more in this fight. So absolutely NATO can dictate terms. Ukraine would be back to 2014 if NATO suddenly gave up.


NATO may theoretically have the whip hand, but in practical terms? It's in NATO's interest to keep Ukraine in the fight. Risking a Ukrainian defeat by withholding support just to force Zelensky to negotiate to NATO's terms is like throwing out the baby with the bath water. Duhh!

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ugggh! Yeah, stupid typo. I need to use my laptop and not my phone. He said that he wants the US and NATO to declare terms. I meant to ask how he thought they could do that. They cannot.


Don't you just love auto-correct? You proofread your words before you hit POST REPLY, then it pops up on the thread "corrected"! AARRGGH!! Often the "corrections" make no sense at all, just R2D2 trying to read your mind and put words in your mouth. I would delete him if Samsung and 'droid would let me. It seems each generation of these infernal gadgets has more automation and less user control of its features.

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

That depends on your definition of defeat is.

I would fully suspect Ukraine and NATO would happily support any peace treaty that's favourable.

How long do you think Ukraine would have lasted without the support of NATO? Seconds? Minutes? Hours?

Again NATO is fighting the war through Ukraine. Because it suits NATO to do so.

This is what annoys me. When we talk about Chamberlain and Munich.

The British Empire couldn't give two hoots about Czechoslovakia. Couldn't care less even if it tried. So it was no care at all to throw away the Czechs.

No replace Czech with say Gibraltar and war would have begun straight away.

We declared war when Poland was invaded because it was the only option. Again the British Empire couldn't give two hoots about Poland.

So it wasn't appeasement but the Germans were not messing with our stuff so we didn't care.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Acceptable in the idea that things could be worse. Not acceptable in that things are good.
> 
> My father in law had bad cancer. He was given 2 choices. Be cut up or die.
> 
> ...



Things could be worse? It would just be a temporary peace buying time for Russia to get their shit together.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 20, 2022)

Britain and France had a treaty with Poland that was honoured. If they didn't care they would not have honoured it.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin isn't happy, and it's triggering infighting and upheaval in his government.
> ...


Trouble in worker‘s paradise?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> According to Russia the flight suits are yellow cos they yellow.
> 
> They don't signifies nothing.
> 
> Very very strange though.


One of the cosmonauts said the suits were yellow because the had a lot of yellow spacesuit material left. They had to use it up. 
That’s what the translation said.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> So it wasn't appeasement but the Germans were not messing with our stuff so we didn't care.



No. Czechoslovakia was dismembered because the British lacked the strength of arms and the French lacked the political will to fight. Britain gave Poland a guarantee because it realized Germany had become the continental hegemon and the UK reverted to its traditional policy of counterbalancing such a hegemon with an alliance.

Czechoslovakia got mutilated because the Allies were negotiating from a position of weakness.

Now, the longer the Ukrainians hold out, the weaker the Russians become. That rather changes one's negotiating position and tactics. What seems reasonable to you may well be completely unacceptable to Ukrainians for reasons non-Ukrainians might never understand. National and cultural identities matter when you're talking about the will of a people.

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## Denniss (Mar 20, 2022)

Just to make things straight - If Putler is not stopped now he or his follow-up clone will endanger other nations around Russia in the near future, especially those without a protective defense treaty.
Imagine what would have happened if germany would have been sanctioned after their Sudetenland or whole Czech takeover? They were exzessivly depending on oil and rare metals imports. The Luftwaffe and tank units were still building-up and required lots of fuel to train/operate, synth fuel factories had rather limited production, ties with Romania were not that strong that they would have worked around sanctions and deliver oil.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)



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## msxyz (Mar 20, 2022)

German punctuality at work... They should have left a guarantee coupon as well for the new owners...


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## Dimlee (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The only reason Ukraine is doing as well as it is because NATO are sending billions of dollars worth of arms to them. Probably also intel and who knows what else. Money and supplies by the truck load.


The only reason? Many more billions were spent in Afghanistan.

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Russia may get weaker may get stronger who knows. But buys time for Ukraine as well. Time for Russia to fail due to sanctions. 

If the British Empire cared for the Czechs then it wouldn't have sold them down the river. Let's judge on actions and the actions are pretty clear. 

As advised before...they didn't care and why should they?

Again didn't care about Poland but a line in the sand was drawn so...

If it became obvious Hitler was nuts then it was time to step in.

Again and again and again....how are you going to stop Putin and the Russian military? Please tell me how you are going to do it?


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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The only reason? Many more billions were spent in Afghanistan.


If NATO was not backing Ukraine fully with money and weapons then Ukraine would do as well as it did in 2014.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Think good thoughts?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

That theater that was clearly marked "kids" that the Russians bombed?






Here's what it looks like now:














War in Ukraine: Russian forces hit a shelter in Mariupol


Ukrainian officials say Russian troops bombed an art school in the besieged city of Mariupol. Some 400 people had taken shelter there. It's unclear how many may have been wounded or killed in the strike.



www.npr.org





Ukrainian authorities report approximately 130 people saved out of an estimated 1,300 sheltering there when it got attacked. I hope every single person in the decision-chain of that attack gets life in prison with no parole.

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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

That crime needs punishment way more stronger than just a few seconds in prison!

Not only every single person in chain of command, but also all of guards, ground crews, intelligence officers, and anyone else included, has to be executed in most fearsome way as an active revenge response, not only themselves, but also their families.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> That crime needs punishment way more stronger than just a few seconds in prison!
> 
> Not only every single person in chain of command, but also all of guards, ground crews, intelligence officers, and anyone else included, has to be executed in most fearsome way as an active revenge response, not only themselves, but also their families.



That's too easy. I want these guys to spend long lives behind bars, without sunlight, pondering their role in this barbarity. Preferably as Hess was jailed in Spandau, or Kacinsky is jailed here in America: 23 hours in a windowless room, one hour outside for PT.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> If NATO was not backing Ukraine fully with money and weapons then Ukraine would do as well as it did in 2014.


Nope - you saw how well Ukraine did at stopping Russia from stealing their land in 2014.
Since then, they have been helped with training and equipment by Western nations and it's showing.

So here's a thought: let's just say f**k it and let Russia have the Ukraine. All Russia wants, is to have a "demilitarized" region.
Oh, and there are ethnic Russian enclaves in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - so let's kick NATO out of those states and demilitarized them so Russia can feel safe.
Oops, almost forgot about Poland, can't have them keeping Russians up at night worrying abot those pesky Poles, so they need to be kicked out of NATO and demilitarized too.
Ahh..now Romania and Hungary are worrysome to the Kremlin, too. So off they go and wait, didn't Russia claim Bulgaria as their rightful territory at one time? Those three obviously need to be brought back in the fold of Mother Russia, because "reasons".

So where do we stop?
Finland?
Germany?
Macedonia?
Serbia?
Croatia?

Or should we just let Russia do whatever the f**k they want so we can sit at home without interruption to our own daily lives and let those people in far off lands do the suffering for us?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

I would love to give vent to my emotional feelings on appropriate punishment. Then I would devolve to Putler’s level. I’ll force myself to go with the Constitution’s ban on cruel and unusual punishment. 
A basket of polonium pierogis might be nice.

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## Dimlee (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> If NATO was not backing Ukraine fully with money and weapons then Ukraine would do as well as it did in 2014.


1. NATO is not backing fully or partly. Several NATO members do the backing in limited quantities and this is done on the basis of bilateral country-to-country agreements.
2. That backing began in November 2021 (OK, there were some Javelins in 2020 as well and the TB2 Bayraktar program started in 2019 or earlier). You need *years *to build up a military force that is capable to withstand aggression of such scale. And to learn quickly how to deploy and to use whatever cool weapons are given to you.
I should not remind the Afghanistan example again, should I?
3. Without foreign assistance, the situation would be worse, no doubt. How worse, it's a matter of speculation.

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## tyrodtom (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> If NATO was not backing Ukraine fully with money and weapons then Ukraine would do as well as it did in 2014.


You seem to think the Ukrainians learned nothing from the 2014 Crimean invasion .
You give no credit to their abilities to adapt , and prepare for what they knew was coming

Instead you give all the credit to NATO's semi secret support.

You're thinking just like Putin, blame it all on NATO, and also like Putin you think the Ukraine learned nothing from 2014, and this invasion would just be a walkover like it was in the Crimea .

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## Dimlee (Mar 20, 2022)

Town Dergach, Kharkiv region.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Okay, okay. A B-52 strike at Russian forces outside of Mariupol. 
It felt good to get that out.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Town Dergach, Kharkiv region.
> View attachment 661980



Incredible. I got the same sink in my loo.

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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That's too easy. I want these guys to spend long lives behind bars, without sunlight, pondering their role in this barbarity. Preferably as Hess was jailed in Spandau, or Kacinsky is jailed here in America: 23 hours in a windowless room, one hour outside for PT.


I'm thirsty for blood and revenge.

But reality is that neither of those, will happen.

Just a few hundred (thousands, millions or billions, depends on) dollars spent, and no one will ever remember what happened ...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> I'm thirsty for blood and revenge.
> 
> But reality is that neither of those, will happen.
> 
> Just a few hundred (thousands, millions or billions, depends on) dollars spent, and no one will ever remember what happened ...


I really hope you’re wrong. Sadly, you’re more likely right.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)



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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Town Dergach, Kharkiv region.
> View attachment 661980



Ammo rack got hit, we're lucky it didn't blow!!!

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

You can remind me of Afghanistan all day long.

So what?

Advise me on the similarity between this and Ukraine?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I would love to give vent to my emotional feelings on appropriate punishment. Then I would devolve to Putler’s level. I’ll force myself to go with the Constitution’s ban on cruel and unusual punishment.
> A basket of polonium pierogis might be nice.



Nietzsche was right when he wrote "Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

NATO could probably clean out the Russians in Ukraine in lickety split time.

But the question is why not?

If you know the answer to that question then you fully understand what's going on. B-52s could do a number but they ain't.


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Incredible. I got the same sink in my loo.


Me too, but mine is bisque.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Okay, okay. A B-52 strike at Russian forces outside of Mariupol.
> It felt good to get that out.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> My emotional response to this catastrophe is to let loose my beloved Air Force over Ukraine and problem-solved ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




"You mess with a bull, you'll get the horns."

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Nope - you saw how well Ukraine did at stopping Russia from stealing their land in 2014.
> Since then, they have been helped with training and equipment by Western nations and it's showing.


Yes and Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk is proof. They were taken over in 2014.

Again why is NATO not defending Ukraine? Why not send in the B-52s?

You tell me? Why not?

Send in the whole NATO army. But that isn't happening, why not?


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## ARTESH (Mar 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I really hope you’re wrong. Sadly, you’re more likely right.


From the earlies days of Human civilization, The Money was acting as "GOD". Whoever had more of it, could do anything ... 

Even in older beliefs, old Norse / old Egyptian - and if not mistaken, old Greek, as well - They buried lots of treasures with passed away kings and other high rank people, sometimes food, and even a few slaves ... They thought truly that their wealth could lead them to heaven.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Are you familiar with the golden rule?
He who has the gold makes the rules.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Yes and Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk is proof. They were taken over in 2014.
> 
> Again why is NATO not defending Ukraine? Why not send in the B-52s?
> 
> ...



Yes, we've been over the nuclear deterrent; it's an old argument and doesn't need to be rehashed. I'd like to see why you think caving now is better for the Ukrainians when the Russians have already repeated their 2014 behavior and are bound to do so again if they think their bullying will work afresh -- so long as they have enough time to rebuild their army, heh.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

I was going to respond but you covered it very nicely. Thank you.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Yes and Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk is proof. They were taken over in 2014.
> 
> Again why is NATO not defending Ukraine? Why not send in the B-52s?
> 
> ...


Because the Ukraine is not a NATO charter member.

All NATO can do, is follow their guidelines as has been explained many times.

The moment a NATO member's aircraft, tank or whatever, crosses into the Ukraine, Russia will see it as an act of aggression and the Kremlin will claim that they are beung forced to defend themselves.

Putin is a master manipulator - inn2008, they invaded Georgia under the false pretense of protecting ethnic Russian populations and the world accepted it.
Then they took the Crimea and invaded the Ukraine in 2014 under false pretenses, telling the world that they were protecting ethnic Russian populations and the world accepted it.
In January 2022, Russia stated that they were only doing military excersizes on the Ukrain border and the world accepted it.

Now Russia has invaded the Ukraine under the pretense of protecting Russians from Nazis.

So who's next?

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 20, 2022)

This is a feint for the amphibious assault to reclaim Alaska for the Russian Empire.

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, we've been over the nuclear deterrent; it's an old argument and doesn't need to be rehashed. I'd like to see why you think caving now is better for the Ukrainians when the Russians have already repeated their 2014 behavior and are bound to do so again if they think their bullying will work afresh -- so long as they have enough time to rebuild their army, heh.


No. 

The nuclear deterrent thing does need to be rehashed. It cannot be ignored because it's the whole ball game.

It's literally everything. But again I will ask again how you intend to defeat Russia? That is the question.

I have not advised Ukraine to surrender or cave in. I have advised Ukraine must find a favourable position to be so in any peace talks with Russia it can negotiate from a position of strength. From the details I have read that by June 1st, Russia could be in a weak position. So it is possible by June.

Again, how is Russia going to strengthen its army when it's economically going to be devastated.

Russia could be very much weaker in two years time. Look how weak it is now and it's only going to get weaker.

You're giving Russia too much credit. In my view in two years time Russia will be so far down the toilet as to be no longer viable.

And again what is the West doing to save Ukraine? It could end the war tomorrow by stepping in fully.

At no point has anyone else put forward any mechanism to end the war other than to hang Putin.

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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Because the Ukraine is not a NATO charter member.
> 
> All NATO can do, is follow their guidelines as has been explained many times.
> 
> ...


Absolutely wrong.

NATO can invade who it likes and when it wants.

If the people and security of the Ukrainian people is so vital to NATO then I will ask the question again.

Why not intervene in Ukraine and why not go to war with Russia? Perhaps the people of Ukraine is not as important then.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is a feint for the amphibious assault to reclaim Alaska for the Russian Empire.



I kind of wish they would try.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> No.
> 
> The nuclear deterrent thing does need to be rehashed. It cannot be ignored because it's the whole ball game.
> 
> ...



Actually you have. You want Ukraine to sue for peace by agreeing to Putards terms, which is a neutral state (no issues with this), and give up the disputed territories. That’s throwing in the towel. You can call it “stop the bleeding all you want”, it’s throwing in the towel. And what for? A few years of peace before a stronger Russia comes back for another piece.

How can the west end the war tomorrow? This should be good…

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is a feint for the amphibious assault to reclaim Alaska for the Russian Empire.

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## GTX (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


>



Oh, I don't know. Maybe let them have it. Just put Tucker Carlson and all his followers/fellow travellers there first to welcome their new glorious leader then build a wall around...

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 20, 2022)

NATO can invade who it likes and when it wants but only if all members agree and they have a hard enough time agreeing on where to go for dinner. 
The bad thing about waiting two years for the Russian Military to degrade is the less they can relay on their regular military, they more they'll relay on their nuclear forces. If Adolph Putin is still in power he will have purged anybody reasonable. A rabid dog never gets better, they only get worse.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Oh, I don't know. Maybe let them have it. Just put Tucker Carlson and all his followers/fellow travellers there first to welcome their new glorious leader then build a wall around...


We could rename it Coventry 

< whistles innocently >

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is a feint for the amphibious assault to reclaim Alaska for the Russian Empire.


I knew it!


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


>



Don’t forget those grizzlies.


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## special ed (Mar 20, 2022)

As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?


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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

Do you think Russia wants to go to war with NATO? 

A full on invasion by NATO and air campaign into Ukraine would have the Russian running to the border or risk utter devastation.

If the Russians are doing badly against Ukraine then I don't fancy thier chances.

Yes this war must end and yes a peace treaty has to be reached. One that is acceptable to both sides.

This was normally how wars used to be fought. WW1 ended exactly this way. Russo Japanese war and so on. Even the Winter War with the Finns.

Ukraine may have the goal to reclaim say Crimea. Which is fair enough. But how does it intend to do that?

You're saying throw in the towel but that has already happened in 2014.

The war has to be fought with realistic goals and any peace treaty must be written with realistic goals.

Russia has failed because it's goals were not based on reality.

I haven't advocated Ukraine giving territory to Russia but I have advocated Ukraine doing what it takes to do to end the war on favourable terms. Putin I would suspect has zero....zero intentions of giving up Crimea. Stone cold zero.

So if the handover of Crimea is Numero uno on the agenda then the war will continue. For good or bad.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

Maybe a little brinkmanship might help. If there is a safe corridor to somewhere inside of Ukrainian airspace, send non-lethal aid laden cargo planes. 
I just can’t see any country in range of Russian non-nuclear weapons agreeing to be a staging site.

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## GTX (Mar 20, 2022)

When Four Corners got access to Zelenskyy's heavily fortified HQ in Kyiv, here's what happened


In an Australian exclusive, ABC's Four Corners interviews Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister inside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's heavily fortified compound in Kyiv.




www.abc.net.au

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## J_P_C (Mar 20, 2022)

Meanwhile farmer's spec forces are arming up - they slowly starting to be more picky - only newest and best from arsenal of invaders. 2S19 - why not, but another MTLB will be just waste of time....

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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)

Slava Ukraini!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

special ed said:


> As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?



And another person ignoring the nuclear question…

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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And another person ignoring the nuclear question…


People need to remember that even if you live in the US or someplace else, fallout means everywhere is tainted by nukes and if we use enough of them the climate effects are catastrophic. There is no winning a nuclear exchange.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Do you think Russia wants to go to war with NATO?
> 
> A full on invasion by NATO and air campaign into Ukraine would have the Russian running to the border or risk utter devastation.
> 
> ...





lol

You can’t seriously think Putin will not make good on his threat to use Nukes?

This groundhoggery is getting ridiculous.

Oh, and stop backtracking. You advocated for Ukraine to give up their eastern disputed territories for peace.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 20, 2022)

special ed said:


> As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?



The only reason the UN could act against North Korean aggression was because (a) China's seat on the Security Council was held by the Republic of China and not the People's Republic of China, and (b) the USSR was boycotting the Security Council because of Item (a). 

The problem with the UN is that it requires a degree of unanimity which never occurs because certain countries, notably Russia and China, consistently vote against anything that the Western nations try to invoke. Either the UN needs to remove veto power from Permanent Members of the Security Council if they undertake hostile action outside of existing UN Resolutions, or the UN needs to step up aid efforts and then request countries provide protection to aid convoys...however, I can't see Russia (or China) agreeing to such a course of action.

One only as to look at China's strident criticism of Western sanctions against Russia while not making a single negative comment about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There's no way China is going to side with the West.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Seems like he get’s it…

Ukraine will not be giving up territory for peace.









Zelensky draws line in negotiations: We're not giving land to Russia


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said neither he nor his people can accept some of Russia's reported demands for ending its increasingly brutal invasion.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The only reason the UN could act against North Korean aggression was because (a) China's seat on the Security Council was held by the Republic of China and not the People's Republic of China, and (b) the USSR was boycotting the Security Council because of Item (a).
> 
> The problem with the UN is that it requires a degree of unanimity which never occurs because certain countries, notably Russia and China, consistently vote against anything that the Western nations try to invoke. Either the UN needs to remove veto power from Permanent Members of the Security Council if they undertake hostile action outside of existing UN Resolutions, or the UN needs to step up aid efforts and then request countries provide protection to aid convoys...however, I can't see Russia (or China) agreeing to such a course of action.
> 
> One only as to look at China's strident criticism of Western sanctions against Russia while not making a single negative comment about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There's no way China is going to side with the West.



Good points on the political side of it.


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## The Basket (Mar 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> lol
> 
> You can’t seriously think Putin will not make good on his threat to use Nukes?
> 
> ...


Oh dear.

Let's see how history plays out instead. Let's see who is right.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

That would be my wife.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 20, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> Oh dear.
> 
> Let's see how history plays out instead. Let's see who is right.



I don’t either of us will be happy with the outcome.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

The Basket said:


> No.
> 
> The nuclear deterrent thing does need to be rehashed. It cannot be ignored because it's the whole ball game.



No one is ignoring it. It's precisely why we're not providing fighting men in our aid packages.



The Basket said:


> It's literally everything. But again I will ask again how you intend to defeat Russia? That is the question.



You apparently missed the allusions to Afghanistan and insurgency upthread, but that is how this will be stopped. A Russia suffering big losses in men and materiel in this current invasion will likely be too impoverished to stay in Ukraine for ten or so years trying to quell an insurgency.



The Basket said:


> I have not advised Ukraine to surrender or cave in. I have advised Ukraine must find a favourable position to be so in any peace talks with Russia it can negotiate from a position of strength. From the details I have read that by June 1st, Russia could be in a weak position. So it is possible by June.



That's a bit more moderate than conceding the previous depredations in Crimea and Donbas which you recommended accepting.



The Basket said:


> Again, how is Russia going to strengthen its army when it's economically going to be devastated.



Exactly.



The Basket said:


> Russia could be very much weaker in two years time. Look how weak it is now and it's only going to get weaker.



You're getting it.



The Basket said:


> You're giving Russia too much credit. In my view in two years time Russia will be so far down the toilet as to be no longer viable.



No, I'm not. _You're_ the one recommending the Ukrainians bargain away regions of their country for what can only be a temporary peace -- not me or anyone else here.


The Basket said:


> And again what is the West doing to save Ukraine? It could end the war tomorrow by stepping in fully.



At the risk of nuclear war, which would make the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine look like a Sunday drive on a country road.



The Basket said:


> At no point has anyone else put forward any mechanism to end the war other than to hang Putin.



I'd suggest you read for comprehension. Several, myself included, have argued that Ukraine could extract a Russian withdrawal by imposing an insurgency too expensive in men, materiel, and prestige for the Russians to maintain under the weight of drastic sanctions and global opprobrium.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




How do you expect to negotiate peace terms with someone like this. News flash! You can’t.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No one is ignoring it. It's precisely why we're not providing fighting men in our aid packages.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well said, on all accounts…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> When Four Corners got access to Zelenskyy's heavily fortified HQ in Kyiv, here's what happened
> 
> 
> In an Australian exclusive, ABC's Four Corners interviews Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister inside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's heavily fortified compound in Kyiv.
> ...



The Polish ambassador's assessment is spot on:

_
"If Ukraine falls, we will be in big trouble. I believe the implementation of the Russian plan to create a grey zone in central Europe would start, and it would be implemented with the use of force, or a blackmail of force," he said.

And, he said, for Poland that would mean a "second-class NATO membership".

Whatever happens, he said, Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine would force a new order on Europe.

"I believe that we'll now make further steps within NATO, within the United Nations to adjust," he said.

[...]

"Very much dangerous. I think the inner circle of President Putin should take care that the red button is nowhere close to President Putin's fingers," he said, ominously.
_

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 20, 2022)

....and another one bites the dust.









Top Russian naval chief born in Kyiv reportedly killed in battle


Andrey Paliy, 51, a Black Sea fleet commander, was shot dead by Ukrainian forces near the embattled city of Mariupol.




nypost.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> ....and another one bites the dust.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wow...their casualty list is getting top-heavy.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 20, 2022)

So, they're bringing in the top brass to bolster morale. Is it working?


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## pgeno71 (Mar 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Wow...their casualty list is getting top-heavy.


Why the hell did he get off his ship? Was it the Ukrainians or did his own marines knock him off? Hmm.....


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## buffnut453 (Mar 20, 2022)

What's going on in Putin's head? Nobody seems to have much of a clue:









Ukraine war: Western agents seek to get inside Putin's head


Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine shook the West. Now its leaders are trying to predict his next move.



www.bbc.com

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 20, 2022)

This is like watching a drunk guy beating his ex-girlfriend in the street while waving a gun at the bystanders to keep them from intervening.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 20, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Why the hell did he get off his ship? Was it the Ukrainians or did his own marines knock him off? Hmm.....


Ukrainian forces have been exploiting the poor security of Russian communications.

He most likely told the Ukrainians his exact location while leading his Naval Infantry units...

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## swampyankee (Mar 20, 2022)

special ed said:


> As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?



There are five countries that can veto any proposal to protect a member country. Russia is one of them. That veto is there for a simple reason: the people controlling the process that formed the UN wanted to make sure it would never have the power to act against the will of the US, France, UK, China, or the USSR. In other words, the UN is powerless because the US, among others, wanted to make sure it would be. The UN is funded based on the size of each country's economy.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Live updates: Ammonia leak contaminates area in east Ukraine


An ammonia leak at a chemical plant in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy has contaminated an area with a radius of more than 2.5 kilometers (about 1.5 miles), officials said early Monday. The Sumykhimprom plant is on the eastern outskirts of the city, which has a population of about 263,000...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 20, 2022)

Some Russians are breaking through Putin's digital iron curtain - leading to fights with friends and family


Days after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, Maria, a 37-year-old mother in western Russia, downloaded a virtual private network, an effort to circumvent the blockade she saw descending across the country's Internet. The instinct proved correct. As the Kremlin began reversing years of relative...




www.yahoo.com

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## Zipper730 (Mar 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s not such a binary POV. Some of the Azov leadership are themselves Jewish and admirers of Israel. Andriy Biletsky, the founder of the Azov Battalion _“explained that he regards Israel and Japan as role models for the development of Ukraine”._


While some of Azov's leadership might be Jewish and admirers of Israel: Many of its followers are, in fact, basically neo-nazis.

A common, and very interesting trait, of certain authoritarian personalities (particularly followers) is poor critical thinking skills, and a remarkable tendency towards compartmentalized thinking: This is such an example -- Basically, member of the KKK had actually proposed developing a device to fatally irradiate people with X-rays.

While the KKK is primarily anti African-American, they have demonstrated themselves to be xenophobic as fuck (hence an anti-Islamic stance, and plan to use this on Muslims), and anti-semitic. Yet, they proposed giving such a weapon to Israel: Could you imagine the State of Israel and the KKK working together?

In both cases, all I can say is _Oy vey..._



GrauGeist said:


> I'm willing to bet that the concession game has been over played by Putin.
> 
> The mass targeting of civilians has turned this into a situation where it'll boil down to all or nothing.
> 
> ...


Well, technically that's _one_ lesson (it's the lesson _I_ learned at least): Another is that deliberately killing civilians _works_ if you use nuclear weapons, and it not only coerces surrender, but the very _prospect_ of such a weapon being used means you can intimidate people (which is the basic idea of nuclear deterrence).

Of course, there's a fault in that thinking: After all, if other nations have nuclear weapons, and they realize this basic fact; then develop their nuclear arsenals to such a level that they can basically bomb the other off the face of the Earth and provide means of ensuring at least some nuclear weapons will make their target in the event of an attempted first strike: You end up with mutually assured destruction.

I'm kind of amazed that we managed to survive the Cold War to be honest, though I'm happy about it.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 661663


I remember thinking that if I could draw people half decent (like this guy could): I'd never have made it into my 30's.


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## Zipper730 (Mar 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The Ukrainians "have effectively struck at the Russian logistics and sustainment capabilities," the official told reporters.
> 
> "As we've said all along, they've been quite creative here. They're not simply going after combat capability — tanks and armored vehicles and shooting down aircraft. Although they're doing all that, they are also deliberately trying to impede and prevent the Russians' ability to sustain themselves."_


As they say, wars are won/lost by logistics. That's pretty basic stuff.



Admiral Beez said:


> A Bretton-Woods global economic reset is best avoided.


Yeah global economic-resets aren't good ideas. We all need that like a hole in the head.



Greg Boeser said:


> And, in a few years, the Russians orchestrate another "liberation movement" in another strategic border area. Nibble, nibble.


If at first you don't succeed... try, try again.



GrauGeist said:


> No, nukes won't fly. His Imperial Majesty is a narcissist and needs accolades for his self image.
> If he launches nukes, he'll unleash hell on earth and get an avalanche of the sun on his head. Then who will be left to admire his bare-chested abs?


A guy like him is a malignant narcissist: This isn't your typical narcissist.

This type combines narcissism, with amorality, paranoia, and some sadism thrown in for good measure: When cornered, people like this will destroy anything and everything if they can't survive. 

Their ego is more important than all life on Earth: A person like this could easily move to use nuclear weapons if his life or way of life is threatened.



Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect that if Putin is killed (assuming that's even possible), Russia will descend into civil war.


Probably true. Something that will not benefit the Russian public.



FLYBOYJ said:


> Here we go! These Ruskies are funny guys!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If they moved to take Alaska, we'd probably go to war, which would almost certainly mean a nuclear exchange. It'd be a remarkably reckless move.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I would not be surprised if he has some aggressive form of brain cancer that is affecting his ability to think rationally.


It could just be simple hubris. After all, he's been able to stay in power for a long time, far more than the law normally allows, and his successes might have led him to believe he's invincible.

As for some form of brain tumor: It wouldn't have to even be an aggressive one, just one that's pressing on the wrong area of the brain. It is interesting, however, that the most common form of brain-cancer is also the deadliest.


> Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin isn't happy, and it's triggering infighting and upheaval in his government.
> ...


Sounds very Stalinistic, but it could backfire with his assassination. After all, intelligence agencies do know how to do this very well.



XBe02Drvr said:


> Don't you just love auto-correct? You proofread your words before you hit POST REPLY, then it pops up on the thread "corrected"! AARRGGH!! Often the "corrections" make no sense at all, just R2D2 trying to read your mind and put words in your mouth. I would delete him if Samsung and 'droid would let me. It seems each generation of these infernal gadgets has more automation and less user control of its features.


I know! The ironic thing is the program would be simpler without auto-correct...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> While some of Azov's leadership might be Jewish and admirers of Israel: Many of its followers are, in fact, basically neo-nazis.
> 
> A common, and very interesting trait, of certain authoritarian personalities (particularly followers) is poor critical thinking skills, and a remarkable tendency towards compartmentalized thinking: This is such an example -- Basically, member of the KKK had actually proposed developing a device to fatally irradiate people with X-rays.
> 
> ...


When the Azov Battalion was a political militia, they were a group of right wingers, yes.
But since then, they have been brought under the authority of the Ukrainian Army, and are professional soldiers. They are about as Nazi as the morning crew at your local McDonald's.
The Azov Battalion has also been one of the hardest fighting units in this war and have cost the Russians dearly.

In a twist of irony, though, the radical "Sparta Battalion" who boasted they were neo-nazis, was nearly wiped out by Ukraine forces, it's General and most of it's commanders killed.
Almost forgot to mention that the Sparta Battalion was fighting for the Russians...

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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When the Azov Battalion was a political militia, they were a group of right wingers, yes.
> But since then, they have been brought under the authority of the Ukrainian Army, and are professional soldiers. They are about as Nazi as the morning crew at your local McDonald's.
> The Azov Battalion has also been one of the hardest fighting units in this war and have cost the Russians dearly.
> 
> ...


Do you know if they still use the Black Sun and Wolfsangel imagery? Not trying to imply anything with the question, just purely informational.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Can't remember if this has been posted on the thread yet. Apparently it's getting a fair amount of traction in Russia. Let's hope more listen to it and heed the messages it contains:

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Do you know if they still use the Dark Sun and Wolfsangel imagery? Not trying to imply anything with the question, just purely informational.


Not sure, though the internet is a tricky place to get hard facts, sometimes.

The funny thing about the Wolfsangel, the 2nd SS Division emblem has a reversed doppelhauken.
And that symbol is still found across Europe in municipal Coat of Arms, mile markers and so on.

The Azov Battalion was heavily de-politicized when it was officially placed into the military, but as with most things on the internet, myths persist.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not sure, though the internet is a tricky place to get hard facts, sometimes.
> 
> The funny thing about the Wolfsangel, the 2nd SS Division emblem has a reversed doppelhauken.
> And that symbol is still found across Europe in municipal Coat of Arms, mile markers and so on.
> ...


Yeah, I know it is tough to get good info. The thing with all these symbols is that many of them existed and were in use long before the Nazis co-opted them. And now they mean something completely different.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

It's true that the early Azov militia used occult symbols - most groups try to come up with intimidating or embolding icons to boost that "scary" factor.

What is interesting, though, is that a "Wolfsangel" looks different and is about as ancient as the Doppelhauken. The true Wolfsangel icon looks more like a semi-circular leather cutting tool.

On a side note: the Finnish Military finally retired their "Swastika" from their heraldry and military medals, due to public concerns.
Latvia and Finland had used that rune as their national insignia long before Germany adopted it in the 1930's, too.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!

Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death

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## SaparotRob (Mar 21, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!
> 
> Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death


Finally, realistic assessment instead of wild speculation. I can sleep now.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

Holy chit, I just seen that on the internet, so it must be 100% true!

And I am also a bit sad the Putler won't be dying in an underground bunker as Ukranian forces are closing in during savage street fighting in Moscow...

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 21, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!
> 
> Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death


If he loses his power, he loses his life support. No need for lead poisoning.

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## ThomasP (Mar 21, 2022)

re general comments related to 'why the UN is so ineffective'.

Swampyankee beat me to it in his post#2,682. I will only add that while I cannot speak to the exact reasoning of the governments of the other countries with veto power, the US reasons for wanting the UN to be ineffective were quite clearly laid out in the debates in the US congress during the formation of the UN. Many records can be found on line or written about in various print books covering the time period.

The US was quite open in its contemporary debates on the UN, and historical record shows that we were afraid the UN might try to impose the rest of the world's view on the US, and that was not to be allowed unless it was OK with us. We refused to sign the UN charter until the veto clause was put in, including the US being a permanent member of the Security Counsel with the power of the veto.

As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".

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## Glider (Mar 21, 2022)

I saw on-line (so treat it with caution) a video released by the Russian authorities of a strike using what was purported to be one of their hypersonic missiles on an ammunition dump. What was interesting was that it certainly was a missile strike, and may well have been an ammunition dump as it looked like the type of dump used by any army. However if it was it, was a very empty ammunition dump, the roof fell in and there was a small fire but no explosions.

Part of me does hope they wasted one of their few, very expensive, hypersonic missiles, on what clearly was, an empty shed

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## wlewisiii (Mar 21, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Seems like he get’s it… Ukraine will not be giving up territory for peace.


Well yes, one of the first rules in negotiations is to make a hard demand for everything you want, an absolute position so to speak, with the assumption that you’ll need to haggle down from that point. I expect the following:

Ceasefire, perhaps brokered by China (a very smart move on their part, though need to be careful supporting precedents on self determination in Taiwan)
Ukraine haggles down to its prewar borders in return for withdraw of Russian forces
UN sanctioned referendums are held in the smaller pre-war Russian-held territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (not the entire Russian recognized territory) to determine if the populations wants to join Ukraine, Russia or be independent. These two leave Ukraine (and likely good riddance)
Crimea goes to Russia (Ukraine barely raised a finger to hold it in 2014)
Putin remains in power, hero’s welcome in Russia for pacifying Ukraine and regaining Russian populated lands, with promise to protect Russians wherever they are.
Ukraine promises to never join NATO, but refuses to denounce EU hopes or to demilitarize
War declared over. Global business returns to business. Most sanctions end. Nord2 certified and begins pumping gas around Ukraine to Germany.
Ukraine begins rebuilding with most of the money coming from China and Russia.
Ukraine recalls its refugees from across Europe and world, and begins to update military. Ideally with an Israeli-sourced Iron Dome and US-sourced counter battery defence.
Now, I now you’re going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Now, I now you’re going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.



Well I was going to respond, but since you know whats going on in my head (twice now you have claimed this) I see no point. I’ll check in with you before I respond to anyone including my wife so you can tell me what I’m going to say.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The US was quite open in its contemporary debates on the UN, and historical record shows that we were afraid the UN might try to impose the rest of the world's view on the US, and that was not to be allowed unless it was OK with us. We refused to sign the UN charter until the veto clause was put in, including the US being a permanent member of the Security Counsel with the power of the veto.
> 
> As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".



A classic case of the law of unintended consequences. Now that veto power is being used against us to hinder our ability to respond...and it's leveraged with great effect by both Russia and China.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Sanctions are biting in Russia:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=623841c70ce87e491a0f08ef%26%27Sugar%20panic%27%20as%20Russia%27s%20supermarkets%20ration%20goods%262022-03-21T12%3A44%3A17.490Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:e3de6be2-8403-42b7-89ba-164b9f709538&pinned_post_asset_id=623841c70ce87e491a0f08ef&pinned_post_type=share



I wonder if there's a run on toilet paper yet?

If so, I hope the intelligence agencies are using these categories to measure the decline of the Russian population (with apologies for resurrecting an early COVID meme):

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well yes, one of the first rules in negotiations is to make a hard demand for everything you want, an absolute position so to speak, with the assumption that you’ll need to haggle down from that point. I expect the following:
> 
> Ceasefire, perhaps brokered by China (a very smart move on their part, though need to be careful supporting precedents on self determination in Taiwan)
> Ukraine haggles down to its prewar borders in return for withdraw of Russian forces
> ...



That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

_Ukrainian officials on Monday rejected Russian demands of surrender in Mariupol as the city faces an onslaught of attacks.

The Russian military had issued an ultimatum, saying anyone who lays down their arms would be permitted to leave Mariupol through safety corridors.

Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management, called for Ukrainians to "lay down your arms," claiming that a "terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed."

"All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol," Mizintsev said.

However, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk rejected this offer outright, Reuters reported.

"There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms," Vereshchuk said. "We have already informed the Russian side about this."

According to The Associated Press, Mariupol Mayor Piotr Andryushchenko also rejected the demands, cursing the Russian forces in a Facebook post.

Mariupol has faced some of the worst of Russia's attack on Ukraine in the past few weeks. On Sunday, it was reported that Russian forces had bombed an art school where hundreds of refugees were sheltering.









Mariupol officials reject Russian military's surrender demand


Ukrainian officials on Monday rejected Russian demands of surrender in Mariupol as the city faces an onslaught of attacks.




thehill.com




_

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 21, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".


Spoken like a true "ugly American". With superpower authority, an attitude like that, and rapacious industrial might, is it a wonder we didn't inspire the rest of the world to follow worshipfully in our footsteps?


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## Zipper730 (Mar 21, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!
> 
> Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death


The death card doesn't necessarily mean death, it means a great change, often the end of something: It could be the end of his life, or a change in his policies (change can be good, neutral, or bad).

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.


I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway ”Republics” will be begging to return within a generation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway ”Republics” will be begging to return within a generation.



"Pre-war borders"? This war started in 2014.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.


I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.
Admittedly this feels like NC's "peace in our time", but it's only intermission before the second half, and if we use the half-time break to our advantage to get on a war footing, we can make the second half insurmountable to Putardsky, and likely terminate his reign (with extreme prejudice). Played right he's "hoist on his own Putard". (Couldn't resist that one!)

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 21, 2022)

Glider said:


> I saw on-line (so treat it with caution) a video released by the Russian authorities of a strike using what was purported to be one of their hypersonic missiles on an ammunition dump. What was interesting was that it certainly was a missile strike, and may well have been an ammunition dump as it looked like the type of dump used by any army. However if it was it, was a very empty ammunition dump, the roof fell in and there was a small fire but no explosions.
> 
> Part of me does hope they wasted one of their few, very expensive, hypersonic missiles, on what clearly was, an empty shed


Not very probable the use of the hypersonic missile as said by RF:









We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated)


The apparent first use of Russia's air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile against a target in Ukraine doesn't all add up.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.
> Admittedly this feels like NC's "peace in our time", but it's only intermission before the second half, and if we use the half-time break to our advantage to get on a war footing, we can make the second half insurmountable to Putardsky, and likely terminate his reign (with extreme prejudice). Played right he's "hoist on his own Putard". (Couldn't resist that one!)



Bear in mind that Russia to will gain breathing space in the intermission -- and analyze their failures. I don't see any reason to assume Ukraine benefits more in the future from such concessions. I think Crimea is lost no matter what, but it's important that Ukraine retain the Donbas, it seems to me.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 21, 2022)

We bargain for these poor souls as best we can. There are certain realities we have to face. Putin is a nutbag is with nukes. He might/might not be aware of how much stronger and more united he made the West (“I ain’t telling the boss. You tell the boss, comrade“). His economy is weaker, no matter what one thinks of the special economic administration exercise. Whatever time he has to build up, he got a whole buttload of tires to replace. That’s gonna cost a whole lotta’ worthless rubles. Will he be buying them from China?🤣
We face reality. We play hard ball. Crimea ain’t off the table (yeah, I know. Reality sucks, don’t it?). Belorussia is demilitarized and neutral. They were complicit with the invasion. 
All those frozen assets? Russia gets what‘s left after reparations. He might not be getting the best deals on new stuff. Better check out “logistics” too, Vlad. The Donbas region will have real referendums after de-militarization. 
Ukraine joining NATO is not up to Russia. Bargaining chip. He ain’t going to want to go toe to toe with NATO anytime soon. 
Thankfully for you guys that’s all I got.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Glad to see Russian forces are actively targeting nazis and neo-nazis during this operation:

_The administration of the Buchenwald memorial centre in Germany has said a man who survived a number of concentration camps during World War Two was killed in the bombing on his home in the north-eastern city of Kharkiv on Friday, according to his relatives. Boris Romantschenko, who was 96, "actively campaigned for the memory of the crimes of Nazism and was vice president of the Buchenwald-Dora International Committee", they said in a series of tweets.




_Mr Romantschenko. God bless you for your courage, fortitude, and services to humanity.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 21, 2022)

I remember this photo.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Bear in mind that Russia to will gain breathing space in the intermission -- and analyze their failures. I don't see any reason to assume Ukraine benefits more in the future from such concessions. I think Crimea is lost no matter what, but it's important that Ukraine retain the Donbas, it seems to me.


Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
> This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
> NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.


Hit reply by accident.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 21, 2022)

what the Prosecutor General is accusing Russia of is this:
_With genocide is understood any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:_
*(a)* _Killing members of the group;_
*(b)* _Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;_
*(c)* _Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;_
*(d)* _Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;_
*(e)* _Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group._

That is the law in every signatory country. Ukraine's Prosecutor General is beginning a case for 2(e) violation. And it may be referred to the ICC.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 21, 2022)

I've wondered if they have already done that in the breakaway areas. So if it went to a legitimate vote, have all the Ukrainians already been moved out.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "Pre-war borders"? This war started in 2014.


If not 1991, but I‘m referring to the territory held by Ukraine before the Feb 2022 invasion.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well I was going to respond, but since you know whats going on in my head (twice now you have claimed this) I see no point. I’ll check in with you before I respond to anyone including my wife so you can tell me what I’m going to say.


I‘m not on staff here, go ahead and respond. I only surmised based on evidence thus far that you’d reply with a rhetorical question rejecting the post. But I’m not psychic and anything else will surprise me for sure.


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## Dimlee (Mar 21, 2022)

US volunteers in Ukraine. Thank you!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I‘m not on staff here, go ahead and respond. I only surmised based on evidence thus far that you’d reply with a rhetorical question rejecting the post. *But I’m not psychic and anything else will surprise me for sure.*



Thanks for acknowledging that.

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## GTX (Mar 21, 2022)

Is this the 'end of the beginning' for Russia in Ukraine?


There is a growing consensus from both official sources and other experts that Russian forces have, or are on the cusp of, culminating in Ukraine. Mick Ryan explains what that could mean.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Mar 21, 2022)

Here's a moment of hope as well.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 21, 2022)

But there are still the refugees...


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## GTX (Mar 21, 2022)

No-fly zone above Ukraine can no longer be taboo. There is a solution. – European Values Center for Security Policy







europeanvalues.cz

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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> No-fly zone above Ukraine can no longer be taboo. There is a solution. – European Values Center for Security Policy
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think even a limited no-fly zone is going to lead to NATO and Russian aircraft engaging. Putin will not recognize its legality because it would be interpreted as providing a safe harbor for Ukrainian forces. Also, as refugees leave through the corridor, Putin would argue that military supplies are flowing in the other direction under the cover of the no-fly zone. Which he would probably be correct about, because that is what I would use it for as well.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Didn’t the leader of Belarus not show forces moving into Moldova on his map?


Perhaps things won’t be easy for the Russians in Belarus either. If Putin can’t take Ukraine the citizens of Belarus have a road map to true independence.









Advisor to Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya: Belarusian partisans stop Russian trains and damage equipment


Olha Hluschenko – Monday, 21 March 2022, 04:11




www.pravda.com.ua





We’ll see if this is accurate by tomorrow.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 21, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I think even a limited no-fly zone is going to lead to NATO and Russian aircraft engaging. Putin will not recognize its legality because it would be interpreted as providing a safe harbor for Ukrainian forces.



Putin will not recognize legality of a no-fly zone above other country??

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Putin will not recognize legality of a no-fly zone above other country??


If a NATO plane shoots down a Russian plane anywhere, even in the middle of the Atlantic it’s an declaration of war by NATO.


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If a NATO plane shoots down a Russian plane anywhere, even in the middle of the Atlantic it’s an declaration of war by NATO.


You think? They cant take a big city but will take on Nato? 60 clicks of convoy with not enough gas to disperse? In what universe would that give the russians convidence to start a third front?
Self proclaimed admiral or not, think you have to reset your thinking there a bit.


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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Putin will not recognize legality of a no-fly zone above other country??


Yeah.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

The artical also mentioned non-NATO countries conducting no-fly enforcement.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The artical also mentioned non-NATO countries conducting no-fly enforcement.


True, but I think the best no fly enforcement is effective SAMs, not fighter aircraft.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

A neutral aircraft enforcing a no-fly zone does not have to touch Ukrainian soil or Russian occupied soil.

It can enter, traverse and enforce the no-fly area without involving one side or the other.


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## Glider (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> A neutral aircraft enforcing a no-fly zone does not have to touch Ukrainian soil or Russian occupied soil.
> 
> It can enter, traverse and enforce the no-fly area without involving one side or the other.


I'm sorry but I feel that this is going down a blind alley.

a) If any nation NATO or not want to enforce a no fly zone then that will involve firing of Russian forces, and will be taken as the opening of hostilities
b) Only NATO has the forces to try such a thing

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## wlewisiii (Mar 21, 2022)

The only practical No-Fly zone involves getting Ukraine still more S-300's and radars to make it too unhealthy for VVS pilots to stick their noses up in the air.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

The Ukrainian Air Force is still active, so no-fly would mean no-fly (fixed wing, rotary, UAV, etc.) regardless of which side.
Also plenty of non-NATO nations that have advanced aircract capable of meeting the challenge:
Sweden, Israel, Japan, etc.

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## gumbyk (Mar 21, 2022)

Glider said:


> I'm sorry but I feel that this is going down a blind alley.
> 
> a) If any nation NATO or not want to enforce a no fly zone then that will involve firing of Russian forces, and will be taken as the opening of hostilities
> b) Only NATO has the forces to try such a thing


Yep, and the first thing that will happen is that the operating base will be targeted.
NATO, the EU, the US, etc are all desperately trying not to give putin what he wants.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 21, 2022)

Being as unqualified as the next guy, I can strategize as badly as the next guy. All mine are quite heroic, suicidal and ridiculous enough to be made into a Michael Bey film. 
NATO has been brought out of its slumber. If there is trouble in Paradise of RF Vassal States, well, perhaps some fraternal RF forces may have to be diverted to bolster flagging spirits. How long, theoretically, would it take some to gather to gather a really sum' bitchin' air re-supply mission? Sanctions got to be hurting soon. VKS is going to having re-supply issues as well. How willing would Putin be to go up against fresh, front line NATO in a few more weeks? 

It will sadly, probably go down with Crimea and Donbas swallowed. Neutral Ukraine. Crackdowns in Belorussia. I don't like it.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The only practical No-Fly zone involves getting Ukraine still more S-300's and radars to make it too unhealthy for VVS pilots to stick their noses up in the air.



And moves may be afoot to help make that happen. This just posted by the BBC:
_
Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby says the US is in "ongoing discussions" with other countries to provide long-range air defence systems to Ukraine.

To date, the US has provided Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine. These systems, however, are primarily effective against helicopters and low-flying aircraft, rather than higher altitude combat aircraft.

It has been reported a number of countries - including Slovakia - have expressed a willingness to give Ukraine S-300 anti-aircraft systems, provided they receive something to replace them.

Ukraine already uses the S-300 and has personnel trained in its use.

While Kirby does not comment directly on Slovakia or the S-300, he says the US is in "active consultations" about "the kinds of defence capabilities to include long-range air defences, that we know that they're [Ukraine] comfortable using."_

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## gumbyk (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> While Kirby does not comment directly on Slovakia or the S-300, he says the US is in "active consultations" about "the kinds of defence capabilities to include long-range air defences, that we know that they're [Ukraine] comfortable using."


That will be the S-300's that the US has for evaluation.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

Meanwhile, across the Black Sea:
(Page link won't work, sorry)

Here's an artical from last month that is a good analysis of what Russia has been doing to reclaim lost Soviet territory.









Moldova, then Georgia, now Ukraine: How Russia built ‘bridgeheads into post-Soviet space’


Moscow’s recognition of breakaway Ukrainian territories has prompted comparisons with past Russian operations aimed at countering Western influence and bolstering its strategic depth in the former Soviet…




www.france24.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> That will be the S-300's that the US has for evaluation.



Not necessarily. Armenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela all operate S-300s and could, with varying degrees of persuasion, be convinced to gift them to Ukraine. The problem is that only Armenia and Kazakhstan operate a variant that is also used by Ukraine. The others are a smorgasbord of different S-300 variants which may present logistic and maintenance challenges.

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## gumbyk (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not necessarily. Armenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela all operate S-300s and could, with varying degrees of persuasion, be convinced to gift them to Ukraine. The problem is that only Armenia and Kazakhstan operate a variant that is also used by Ukraine. The others are a smorgasbord of different S-300 variants which may present logistic and maintenance challenges.


And any countries that are close to bordering with Russia will be pretty reluctant to hand over their protection, unless someone is willing and able to provide the goods and training in very short time.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
> This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
> NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.



No argument with that, and I hope you're right.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If not 1991, but I‘m referring to the territory held by Ukraine before the Feb 2022 invasion.



I get that, but then that would mean accepting the loss of the Donbas as a _fait accompli_.

I think I'm leaning on emotion too much for this point, so I'll read more and post less regarding it. As noted above to 
X
 XBe02Drvr
, I could well be wrong about this.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

_Russian operations in Ukraine continue to be largely stalled and plagued by logistical issues, according to an assessment from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

In its daily sum-up of the campaign, the institute noted that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations near Kyiv on Monday, and instead reinforced their defensive positions.

Similarly, Russian forces in north-eastern Ukraine remained stagnant and have been "unable to solve logistics issues", the institute said.

In Mariupol, on the other hand, the institute believes that Russian forces have made "slow but steady progress", and have shelled civilian infrastructure. The institute believes the city will fall sometime in the next few weeks.

Additionally, the institute said that Russia has been forced to deploy "low quality" reserves, including "low readiness units" from Russia's Far East, to replace losses in frontline combat units._


As much as I like seeing tanks and other combat vehicles being plinked by Bayraktar, I really think the Ukrainian forces should be prioritizing trucks as their targets. The more they can hinder Russian logistics, the longer the advance will be stalled. I'd also recommend implementing a "scorched earth" policy of destroying any vehicles larger than a motorbike before they fall into Russian hands (of course Russia, is itself doing a fine job destroying every vehicle in the cities they attack), as well as disabling fuel storage/gas stations etc. 

I'm sure they're probably already doing these things but every truck that gets taken out of commission is another load of food, fuel or ammo that won't reach the Russian front lines.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> As much as I like seeing tanks and other combat vehicles being plinked by Bayraktar, I really think the Ukrainian forces should be prioritizing trucks as their targets. The more they can hinder Russian logistics, the longer the advance will be stalled.



From what I've read, and I don't have the articles at my fingertips at this moment, the Ukrainians are practicing precisely this. Of course they're taking out tanks as targets when they are encountered (unless, of course, they're being towed by tractors, lol), but what I've read indicates that Ukrainian military tactics are indeed focused on logistics resources including supply trucks, as a priority for mission-planning.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

In further news:

_The U.S. is sending Ukraine some Soviet-made air defense equipment that Washington took charge of decades ago through a secret program, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. 

The systems, to include the SA-8 short-range surface-to-air missile system, were obtained by the U.S. for the purposes of examining Russian military technology and helping train American troops, U.S. officials told the outlet. 

[...]

But the U.S. government has been hesitant to detail exactly what is being sent in so as not to tip off or draw the ire of Moscow. The Kremlin has publicly stated that any Western country that provides certain weapons to Ukraine, including aircraft and missile defense systems, could be seen as entering the fight. 

The U.S. has a small number of Soviet missile defense systems it acquired in the past 30 years as part of a secret, $100 million project that first gained notice in 1994, a former official involved in the mission told the Journal. 

Among the weapons the U.S. received — some of which have been kept at Redstone Arsenal, Ala. — is the SA-8, which can be easily moved with ground forces and provide cover from aircraft and helicopters. 

Also in the U.S. stockpile is the S-300 long-range air defense system. The system is meant to protect larger areas and is already owned and operated by the Ukrainians. That weapon, however, will not be sent to Ukraine, according to one official.

The administration is authorized to transfer such equipment under the new annual government spending bill President Biden signed into law last week. The legislation approves a $13.6 billion aid package for Ukraine, of which about $3.5 billion will go to the Pentagon to backfill equipment being sent from the U.S. to Ukraine. 

Also under the law, the U.S. can transfer lethal aid to NATO allies that is already overseas or in existing stockpiles._









US sending secretly acquired Soviet air defense equipment to Ukraine: report


The U.S. is sending Ukraine some Soviet-made air defense equipment that Washington took charge of decades ago through a secret program, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.




thehill.com





This hopefully means opening the door to transferring Patriot batteries to backfill for S-300s sent to Ukraine from other NATO countries.

Also:

_Speaking to NBC News, the unnamed NATO official said, “If we’re not in a stalemate, we are rapidly approaching one."

“The reality is that neither side has a superiority over the other," they added.

According to the official, Belarus, a close Moscow ally, may soon launch an attack on Ukraine or allow Russia to position nuclear weapons on its soil. Belarus allowed Russian soldiers to amass along its border with Ukraine prior to the start of the invasion on Feb. 24. 

[...]

“So what happens when you have these two forces then grinding on each other in this way? The loss of life and the damage is going to be quite severe,” said the official. “Neither side here can win. Neither side will capitulate.”

[...]

*A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that the Ukrainians had "effectively struck at the Russian logistics and sustainment capabilities."*

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Sunday that Putin was now attempting to "reestablish some momentum" in his attack on Ukraine.

Discussing Russia's alleged use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, Austin said these actions could suggest that Putin was in short supply of other weapons or lacked confidence in his troops._









NATO official says Russia-Ukraine war 'rapidly approaching' stalemate: report


The war between Russia and Ukraine is nearing a stalemate, with neither side nearing victory or willing to give in, according to a NATO intelligence official.




thehill.com





The emboldened passage above directly addresses 

 buffnut453
's point about striking at the weak link of logistics.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> From what I've read, and I don't have the articles at my fingertips at this moment, the Ukrainians are practicing precisely this. Of course they're taking out tanks as targets when they are encountered (unless, of course, they're being towed by tractors, lol), but what I've read indicates that Ukrainian military tactics are indeed focused on logistics resources including supply trucks, as a priority for mission-planning.



Doesn't surprise. They're far too savvy to simply go tank plinking for the sake of it. It's just that most of the videos show combat vehicles being hit rather than trucks. 

Love the comment about being towed by tractors, BTW!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Doesn't surprise. They're far too savvy to simply go tank plinking for the sake of it. It's just that most of the videos show combat vehicles being hit rather than trucks.
> 
> Love the comment about being towed by tractors, BTW!



The videos show a lot of tanks, probably because they're big and scary-looking, bu there are many videos I've seen of supply convoys and support elements bing ambushed and taken out -- and you're spot-on, the Ukrainians are far too savvy to hunt only tanks. Much like Fighter Command in the BoB, this isn't about glory, but survival, and that means killing the unglamorous targets relentlessly.


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 21, 2022)

They appear to be targeting fuel trucks as well.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They appear to be targeting fuel trucks as well.



Good!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They appear to be targeting fuel trucks as well.



It's a great way to render the unit useless ... or gather another donated piece of kit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Russian operations in Ukraine continue to be largely stalled and plagued by logistical issues, according to an assessment from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
> 
> In its daily sum-up of the campaign, the institute noted that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations near Kyiv on Monday, and instead reinforced their defensive positions.
> 
> ...



I’d love for them to find a away to launch a counter offensive. Knock em back a bit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’d love for them to find a away to launch a counter offensive. Knock em back a bit.



If only --


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's a great way to render the unit useless ... or gather another donated piece of kit.


I imagine every MoD and military school are studying this war. Ideas on deploying (or acquiring new) tanks, the importance of (and of protecting) your logistics, the use and threat of drones, MANPATS, MANPADS and MRLS. So much to learn and apply. Drone jamming and some sort of rapid fire or laser CIWS to protect tanks or aircraft, plus counter battery missiles may be top of list.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine every MoD and military school are studying this war. Ideas on deploying (or acquiring new) tanks, the importance of (and of protecting) your logistics, the use and threat of drones, MANPATS, MANPADS and MRLS. So much to learn and apply. Drone jamming and some sort of rapid fire or laser CIWS to protect tanks or aircraft, plus counter battery missiles may be top of list.



I think if nothing else, this war is showing how the thoughtful application of tech can allow asymmetrical warfare to be a fairer fight if one is the weaker side.

The stuff about providing and protecting logistics isn't new, though. I think the Russians just disregarded it in thinking that they could do a 100-mile steamroller and be done, so didn't provide for long-term sustenance. If I'm correct about that, it boils down more to Russian misjudgment than a new lesson.

Another major blunder they've repeatedly committed is throwing armor into urban areas without infantry scouting and reliable artillery support, as 

 wlewisiii
pointed out upthread in his great post on combined arms. They could probably use some choppers in that mix too.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Another major blunder they've repeatedly committed is throwing armor into urban areas


I don’t understand what the possible mission of these RussIan tanks could have been. They just seem to drive around like they're lost. Tanks are for breakthroughs and encirclements, not for touring the city without fuel or infantry support.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Gotta LOVE this one....the Kremlin has labelled Facebook as "extremist". It really is a parallel universe over there in the Kremlin:

_Russian media must now declare Facebook parent company Meta an "extremist" organisation whenever it is mentioned, following a court decision to ban the platform on Monday.

Earlier in the day, a Moscow court declared Meta to be an extremist group and banned two of its products, Facebook and Instagram. The ban does not apply to WhatsApp.

That designation must now be specified every time Meta is mentioned in the media, according to Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media, also known as Roskomnadzor.

Similar rules apply to the Islamic State, or to organisations associated with Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Facebook has been blocked in Russia since 4 March._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t understand what the possible mission of these RussIan tanks could have been. They just seem to drive around like they're lost. Tanks are for breakthroughs and encirclements, not for touring the city without fuel or infantry support.



I know, right? I was watching a vid last night of a T-72 repeatedly poking its nose out into an intersection and shooting at what seemed to be the same target, then reversing for cover (presumably while reloading). Not a foot soldier to be seen, and not even another tank in the video-frame. Playing cat-and-mouse in a city with a tank strikes me as pretty dumb without supporting elements ... and this guy had none.

I'll see if I can dig up the video in a little bit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 21, 2022)

Turns out Russia is Ukraines largest arms supplier…  









Ukraine captured a batch of Russia's missiles and fired them back at its troops, report says


Ukrainian forces have been documented capturing Russian vehicles and weapons, which can then be deployed back against the invading forces.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Turns out Russia is Ukraines largest arms supplier…
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And the beauty of it is Russia isn't getting a single ruble for it. 

However, it's testament to Russian logistical challenges that they're using Ukrainian tractors to deliver much of this equipment.

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## pgeno71 (Mar 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Turns out Russia is Ukraines largest arms supplier…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I saw that one too. Made me laugh. Karma's a bitch.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I know, right? I was watching a vid last night of a T-72 repeatedly poking its nose out into an intersection and shooting at what seemed to be the same target, then reversing for cover (presumably while reloading). Not a foot soldier to be seen, and not even another tank in the video-frame. Playing cat-and-mouse in a city with a tank strikes me as pretty dumb without supporting elements ... and this guy had none.
> 
> I'll see if I can dig up the video in a little bit.



Here:

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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

What the hell is on that turret?

A clothes rack with women's jackets?


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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here:




I love the bit where the guy with the camera turns it on himself and grins. One presumes he's a Ukrainian soldier.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I love the bit where the guy with the camera turns it on himself and grins. One presumes he's a Ukrainian soldier.




He's surely a joker. When my son was showing me this and we got to that part, I think I spat a kidney.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I love the bit where the guy with the camera turns it on himself and grins. One presumes he's a Ukrainian soldier.


Might be Russian. I can't hear it well enough to tell if he's speaking Russian or Ukranian.

Perhaps Dimlee could weigh in.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Might be Russian. I can't hear it well enough to tell if he's speaking Russian or Ukranian.
> 
> Perhaps Dimlee could weigh in.



Given how he was taking cover early in the video, I'd assumed he was Ukrainian.

At any rate, the lack of supporting infantry is telling.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

Considering how the Ukraine Farm Tractor Battalion is capturing armor left and right, yes...there is most certainly a lack of infantry support.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Considering how the Ukraine Farm Tractor Battalion is capturing armor left and right, yes...there is most certainly a lack of infantry support.



I guess that memo got lost in the paper chase.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Might be Russian. I can't hear it well enough to tell if he's speaking Russian or Ukranian.
> 
> Perhaps Dimlee could weigh in.



Not sure the Russian military would allow their soldiers to post videos online. Particularly not ones that show such bad tactical acumen.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 21, 2022)

I still have questions about the clothes on the turret...


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I still have questions about the clothes on the turret...


Urban camouflage

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I still have questions about the clothes on the turret...



Pillage? The tank commander's wife gave him a shopping list before the invasion? Trying to make the tank look like a babooshka? Took a detour through a shopping mall?




Who knows????

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> One of the cosmonauts said the suits were yellow because the had a lot of yellow spacesuit material left. They had to use it up.
> That’s what the translation said.


That's to hide the pee from thinking about the Russia they will return to.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Pillage? The tank commander's wife gave him a shopping list before the invasion? Trying to make the tank look like a babooshka? Took a detour through a shopping mall?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Speaking of the Blues Brothers, they also outlined the Russian logistics planning -- with better results in the movie:

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2022)

NATO was never envisioned as an Aggressive Alliance. Strictly defensive. Putin will wait a few years and then go after NATO members by surprise and lies.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Speaking of the Blues Brothers, they also outlined the Russian logistics planning -- with better results in the movie:




"It's 106 miles to Chicago. We've got a full tank of gas, half a packet of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses. HIT IT!!!"

And I wrote that without re-watching the clip!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

The tank losses by the Russians just became even less sustainable by the Russian Army.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> "It's 106 miles to Chicago. We've got a full tank of gas, half a packet of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses. HIT IT!!!"
> 
> And I wrote that without re-watching the clip!



As Mr Osman, my seventh-grade science teacher, would say to a slacker kid -- "Son, you're living a champagne life on a Coca-Cola income."

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2022)

The Basket said:


> No.
> 
> The nuclear deterrent thing does need to be rehashed. It cannot be ignored because it's the whole ball game.
> 
> ...





The Basket said:


> Absolutely wrong.
> 
> NATO can invade who it likes and when it wants.
> 
> ...





buffnut453 said:


> Sanctions are biting in Russia:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Who needs toilet paper when you can wipe with Rubles?

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## at6 (Mar 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What the hell is on that turret?
> 
> A clothes rack with women's jackets?
> 
> View attachment 662128


They could be Cross Dressers.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 22, 2022)

at6 said:


> They could be Cross Dressers.


No. It's so they can get out and cleverly disguise themselves in order to escape should a Ukrainian farmer turn up in his tractor.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here:



If that guy had an AT weapon!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Given how he was taking cover early in the video, I'd assumed he was Ukrainian. At any rate, the lack of supporting infantry is telling.


That man needed a MANPATS. But judging by his exposed position my guess is he’s Russian.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The tank losses by the Russians just became even less sustainable by the Russian Army.



The only prototype of the T-80UM2 has been destroyed in action (with a supply column, BTW) in Ukrainia.

Combat trial (unsucessful) or desperate measure due to lack of armour?
Russia’s Only Prototype T-80UM2 Tank Was Destroyed In Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The tank losses by the Russians just became even less sustainable by the Russian Army.



I wonder if Ukraine’s Malyshev tank factory is still operating.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> "It's 106 miles to Chicago. We've got a full tank of gas, half a packet of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses. HIT IT!!!"
> 
> And I wrote that without re-watching the clip!


Ah... a fellow tribesmen, devoted to the church of blues , where the dodge of Monaco is hailed as the the only saint and where we all hate Illinois Nazis.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 22, 2022)

Might be interesting: the latest iteration of the 'Buk' SAM system, deployed in Ukraine (at least it is claimed so). Unlike the previous versions, this one has missiles with active radar homing, the missiles themselves are packed in cylindrical containers. Missiles are also longer ranged. TELAR carries 6 missiles.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The tank losses by the Russians just became even less sustainable by the Russian Army.




And some people think Sanctions don’t do any thing.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Might be interesting: the latest iteration of the 'Buk' SAM system, deployed in Ukraine (at least it is claimed so). Unlike the previous versions, this one has missiles with active radar homing, the missiles themselves are packed in cylindrical containers. Missiles are also longer ranged. TELAR carries 6 missiles.



I always think Russian mobile missile launchers look like long oil drums or cans.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Going back to the question of Ukrainian targeting against trucks, the following tally is illuminating:

_About 15,300 Russian troops have now been killed since the start of the war, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence has claimed in its latest update.
The ministry also lists 509 tanks, 1,556 armored combat vehicles and 252 artillery systems among Russia's military losses since it invaded Ukraine on 24 February.
The BBC cannot verify any of these figures.

Russia has only once provided a figure on the loss of its troops - 498 deaths as of 2 March - while the US recently estimated that about 7,000 Russian troops had been killed in the conflict.

*The rest of the list from Ukraine's defence ministry is:*_

_*multiple rocket launcher: *80 units_
_*air defence:* 45 units_
_*aircraft:* 99 units_
_*helicopters:* 123 units_
_*automotive equipment:* 1,000 units_
_*ships/boats: *three units_
_*fuel tanks:* 70_
_*unmanned aerial vehicle (drone):* 35_
_*special equipment:* 15_

Of note, the BBC has identified 557 Russian deaths based on tracking down reports in Russia and by interviews with family members. These are 557 named casualties. It does not include any deaths where the soldier could not be identified.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> If that guy had an AT weapon!





Admiral Beez said:


> That man needed a MANPATS. But judging by his exposed position my guess is he’s Russian.



He's a journalist for this channel: Vojvodina info - Vojvodjanske Vesti portal sa regionalnim vestima iz Vojvodine,

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

_Ukrainian forces retook a strategically important suburb of Kyiv on Tuesday as the war with Russia approaches its four-week mark. 

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced that troops were able to retake Makariv, northwest of Kyiv, The Associated Press reported.

However, Russian forces were able to gain ground in other suburbs around Ukraine’s capitol city such as Bucha, Hostomel and Irpin.

The Russian troops did not advance in most other areas of the country, the AP added, noting that they have been struggling to take control of any big cities in Ukraine. Russian forces have reportedly fired more than 1,000 missiles since the invasion began last month. 

Meanwhile, the battle for Mariupol continued Tuesday, with residents fleeing the city saying dead bodies are scattered on the ground, according to the AP. _









Ukrainian forces retake Kyiv suburb


Ukrainian forces retook a strategically important suburb of Kyiv on Tuesday as the war with Russia approaches its four-week mark. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced that troops&nbs…




thehill.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He's a journalist for this channel: Vojvodina info - Vojvodjanske Vesti portal sa regionalnim vestima iz Vojvodine,



Thanks for the info. That makes sense. 

Like I said...not a Russian soldier because the Kremlin only allows carefully choreographed reporting to be released to the internet.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russian forces have reportedly fired more than 1,000 missiles since the invasion began last month. _


Beyond killing, dehousing and frightening civilians have those missiles achieved any reductions in Ukrainian armed resistance?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they’re all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.

NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can’t do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can’t accidentally block the Bosporus.

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## Denniss (Mar 22, 2022)

Bosporos is blocked by Turkey for Russian warships which weren't based in Black Sea when their war began.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they’re all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.
> 
> NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can’t do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can’t accidentally block the Bosporus.



Actually, Turkey has said it will block access to the Black See for any military vessels not based there. If the Far East fleet does head to the Black Sea, we could be in for some bigger problems very quickly.

Here's an article from 2 March on the topic:









How Turkey Blocking Russia From The Black Sea Harms Neutral States


Turkey has implemented an international law to block Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. But it's blocking neutral warships too—and its actions could ignite tensions in the region.




www.forbes.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

This is absolutely heartbreaking:









In Mariupol, children bear the brunt of Vladimir Putin's war


At a children's hospital near the besieged city, the true impact of Russia's tactics are on display.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

The fighters from Belarus helping defend Ukraine:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60830013

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Bosporos is blocked by Turkey for Russian warships which weren't based in Black Sea when their war began.


How does Turkey stop them? Clearly international law, like the Montrose Convention is meaningless to Putin.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How does Turkey stop them? Clearly international law, like the Montrose Convention is meaningless to Putin.



Militarily, which is why any attempt to bring Russian warships into the Black Sea is so dangerous. The risk of one or both sides opening fire and causing casualties is considerable. 

However, Turkey is operating entirely within the remit of the Montreux Convention. There is a war happening and Turkey can bar access to belligerents' military vessels except those normally based in the Black Sea.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Ah... a fellow tribesmen, devoted to the church of blues , where the dodge of Monaco is hailed as the the only saint and where we all hate Illinois Nazis.


Dude!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they’re all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.
> 
> NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can’t do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can’t accidentally block the Bosporus.



That will be interesting, because they have to travel through the Bosphorus which is controlled by Turkey. Turkey per treaty has the right to close it, which they have done.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Ah... a fellow tribesmen, devoted to the church of blues , where the dodge of Monaco is hailed as the the only saint and where we all hate Illinois Nazis.



Back in 1992 I got to see Cab Calloway live in Verona, Italy (he performed in a stepped, semi-circular Roman amphitheatre). He was well into his 80s at that time...but he was still absolutely BRILLIANT. His rendering of "Minnie the Moocher" remains a priceless memory for me.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

There's been rumors that Ukraine has given China pause about trying to take over Taiwan. The biggest reason Ukraine has been successful has been their willingness to fight. The second is the supplies pouring in from western countries. But I suspect that one of the reasons that China might be wary is that Ukraine's military discipline has been a result of the military training they received from the US since 2014. We might be a bit bloated militarily, but we still know how to fight.

The other critical issue we're seeing is the corruption we've seen in Russian military spending, how much of it got siphoned off to generals and oligarchs, producing shoddy equipment. That is still one big difference between Russia and us. Our spending might be more than it should be, but at the end of the day, you still get a proper bolt out of our military manufacturing, and not a piece of wood carved into a bolt and painted silver. There is probably a desire in Beijing right now to check how their own production _really_ is.

Finally, the last major combat the Chinese faced was against Vietnam in 1979 and the veterans of the PAV & ARVN combined to kick their asses to the point where the PLA was forced to declare "victory" and leave. The Army probably has no veterans that remember that embarrassment, but the leadership does. The could see that happening again all too easily especially when looking at the Russian experience in Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Beyond killing, dehousing and frightening civilians have those missiles achieved any reductions in Ukrainian armed resistance?



I'd imagine so, given that so much of the fighting is urban and that means that military and civilian casualties are going to be very difficult to disentangle.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

There were reports of the Russian Navy using Anti-Ship missiles as Anti-ground missiles. Looks like ATGMs make good Anti-Ship missiles if the boat is too close to the shore...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Militarily, which is why any attempt to bring Russian warships into the Black Sea is so dangerous. The risk of one or both sides opening fire and causing casualties is considerable.
> 
> However, Turkey is operating entirely within the remit of the Montreux Convention. There is a war happening and Turkey can bar access to belligerents' military vessels except those normally based in the Black Sea.



And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.



Agreed, this is a super dangerous situation. If they try and run the straight and fire upon Turkish forces, that carrier battle group is justified in engaging. I don’t think those Russian ships will last long, but it would potentially be the opening shots in a much larger conflict.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.



While it's Turkey's call whether to implement the Montreux Convention, it won't be operating alone. I'd be astounded if the US 6th Fleet plus assets from other NATO navies won't be in the area to help out in case there's an incident. 

I do fear, though, that if Russia opens fire on a Turkish vessel--or, perish the thought, sinks a Turkish vessel--that it will bring NATO into the conflict.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

I've been trying to link this. Look up "this is too much 🤣 Russian soldier falls off tank" on YouTube.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I've been trying to link this. Look up "this is too much 🤣 Russian soldier falls off tank" on YouTube.



You mean this one?



Real Keystone Cops stuff.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 22, 2022)

Between the Dardenells and the Bosphorus, is the Sea of Marmara - a natural killing zone.
If Turkey is engaged by Russian surface elements, they will be engaged by Turkish land, sea and air assets.

Since Turkey is tasked with control of the Black Sea access, it may not trigger a NATO response. Much like when Russian and Turkish troops clashed in Syria.

But it would be absolutely stupid for Russia to try. As I just mentioned, that waterway is well defended and is a natural killing zone.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I suspect that one of the reasons that China might be wary is that Ukraine's military discipline has been a result of the military training they received from the US since 2014.


I think the utter collapse of the US-trained Afghan Army as soon as the Taliban said boo was a shock to the Chinese and seen as an incentive to Putin. The Ukrainian example is the polar opposite.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You mean this one?
> 
> 
> 
> Real Keystone Cops stuff.



Yup!

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the utter collapse of the US-trained Afghan Army as soon as the Taliban said boo was a shock to the Chinese and seen as an incentive to Putin. The Ukrainian example is the polar opposite.


The best training in the world cannot make up for motivation while motivation (and discipline) can make up for lacks in training. Dictators forget that at their peril...

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

Love the BTR-80 up on blocks like the wheels got stolen ...

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## Dimlee (Mar 22, 2022)

Another report about a cruise missile shot down by MANPAD.








Ukrainian paratroopers allegedly shot down Russian cruise missile with Igla over Mykolaiv region


VALENTINA ROMANENKO - TUESDAY, 22 MARCH, 2022, 17:58




www.pravda.com.ua

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

This has to be the best quote related to the war in Ukraine...from UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres: 

"Continuing the war in Ukraine is morally unacceptable, politically indefensible, and militarily nonsensical... It is time to stop the fighting now and give peace a chance."

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Oh PLEASE let this happen!!! Cut them off and grind them down. That would absolutely be poetic!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Are Ukraine’s forces that organized to run traditional field movements? I was thinking they were more ambush and partisan than an organized army with a formal command structure from Field Marshall to Generals to Colonels to Captain and so on. Is there an Ukranian Montgomery, Patton or Manstein pulling the strings?


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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are Ukraine’s forces that organized to run traditional field movements? I was thinking they were more ambush and partisan than an organized army with a formal command structure from Field Marshall to Generals to Colonels to Captain and so on. Is there an Ukranian Montgomery, Patton or Manstein pulling the strings?


They have been receiving western military training, especially US, since 2014. One thing that receives huge emphasis is mobility in combat. Whether you're a squad doing an anvil and hammer by flanking your enemy or using vehicles or battalion sized elements, staying in motion is key. While they have been fighting a defensive withdrawal (a very difficult operation in itself) successfully they're now in the position to move to the offensive and take up movements to the Russian flanks and rear. This is simply competent leadership from NCO's and up.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> They have been receiving western military training, especially US, since 2014. One thing that receives huge emphasis is mobility in combat. Whether you're a squad doing an anvil and hammer by flanking your enemy or using vehicles or battalion sized elements, staying in motion is key. While they have been fighting a defensive withdrawal (a very difficult operation in itself) successfully they're now in the position to move to the offensive and take up movements to the Russian flanks and rear. This is simply competent leadership from NCO's and up.


Major General Rasputitsa.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Oh PLEASE let this happen!!! Cut them off and grind them down. That would absolutely be poetic!


Promote the Russian officer in charge to Field Marshal. "Not one inch!"

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Promote the Russian officer in charge to Field Marshal. "Not one inch!"


That also deserves a bacon!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



This is looking too similar to the winter war but with more western help.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Russian forces apparently retreating…









Russia could use nuclear weapons if facing 'existential threat', says Kremlin


Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was facing an "existential threat," a Kremlin spokesman has said.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Russia has lost 10% of its combat forces per Pentagon…









Russian military has lost more than 10% of combat force sent to Ukraine; humanitarian convoy seized, Zelenskyy says: March 22 recap


Ukrainian resistance is quick and nimble – and seeking to retake ground from the Russians, a Pentagon official said. Latest Tuesday's recap.




www.yahoo.com

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## gumbyk (Mar 22, 2022)

But now Ukraine has another problem.

What to do with all the POW's? Can non-belligerent countries detain them?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian forces apparently retreating…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hope that the ukrainians don't get the victory disease and overstrecht themselves too much.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are Ukraine’s forces that organized to run traditional field movements? I was thinking they were more ambush and partisan than an organized army with a formal command structure from Field Marshall to Generals to Colonels to Captain and so on. Is there an Ukranian Montgomery, Patton or Manstein pulling the strings?



Ukraine had an established armed forces that were almost certainly trained in traditional combat operations. Some of those regular forces have been engaged in Donbas and so have a fair amount of combat experience, albeit more trench warfare than manoeuvre warfare. 

Then there are the various militia groups, volunteers, new recruits etc who won't be skilled in traditional combat operations. However, in small groups they're probably highly effective in maintaining an insurgency. Anybody who's hunted game knows how to move quietly, remain in a hide for long periods of time, and then hit the target. I know it's not as simple as that...but there's a lot of innate skills that exist outside the military but which can be applied.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 22, 2022)

I would imagine Stalin 2.0 will greet these soldiers as well as Stalin 1.0 did. They'd be better off just becoming Ukranian.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 22, 2022)

Where‘s the Russian Beriev A-50 (AEW&C)?

How Ukraine’s Outgunned Air Force Is Fighting Back Against Russian Jets

Here’s the whole article.



> LVIV, Ukraine — Each night, Ukrainian pilots like Andriy loiter in an undisclosed aircraft hangar, waiting, waiting, until the tension is broken with a shouted, one-word command: "Air!"
> 
> Andriy hustles into his Su-27 supersonic jet and hastily taxis toward the runway, getting airborne as quickly as possible. He takes off so fast that he doesn't yet know his mission for the night, though the big picture is always the same — to bring the fight to a Russian Air Force that is vastly superior in numbers but has so far failed to win control of the skies above Ukraine.
> 
> ...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> This is looking too similar to the winter war but with more western help.


The video is better.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia has lost 10% of its combat forces per Pentagon…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Them I believe.


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## Glider (Mar 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can’t do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can’t accidentally block the Bosporus.


With some luck we can find a large container vessel to block things up for a while

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## Glider (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Love the BTR-80 up on blocks like the wheels got stolen ...



Is the new SOP to stop the farmers towing it away

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

First-hand account of the bombing of the theatre in Mariupol:









A bomb hit this theatre hiding hundreds - here's how one woman survived


The BBC speaks to survivors of the Mariupol theatre attack, who describe for the first time what happened.



www.bbc.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> With some luck we can find a large container vessel to block things up for a while


Call Evergreen. They know go to choke a Channel.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Call Evergreen. They know go to choke a Channel.



Brilliant. Absolutely BRILLIANT. Almost made me snort my soda. 

Well played, sir. WELL PLAYED!!!!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Brilliant. Absolutely BRILLIANT. Almost made me snort my soda.
> 
> Well played, sir. WELL PLAYED!!!!


Glad that you didn't choke 

 buffnut453
!

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## Dimlee (Mar 22, 2022)

Another Chechen-Russian war. 
Fighters of Sheikh Mansur battalion (anti-Moscow Chechens) defending the Kyiv region.

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## JDCAVE (Mar 22, 2022)

From the NYT:

”_As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin's Leadership…_

“Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.”

it’s a good article, worth searching for.

Jim

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 22, 2022)

Nice find Jim, I'll post the link









As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership


Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.




www.nytimes.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Promote the Russian officer in charge to Field Marshal. "Not one inch!"



It's probably very true that the GOC wouldn't want to return to Russia, considering how Putin has treated other failures in his higher echelons of gov't.

ETA: 

 vikingBerserker
got there first, so credit where credit is due.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 22, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration.


Russian minority -- in the Ukraine?


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## JDCAVE (Mar 22, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Nice find Jim, I'll post the link
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks. I have a subscription, so the app makes that difficult for the technically challenged (Me)…

I especially liked “_In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be "pointless and extremely dangerous." It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten "the existence of Russia itself as a state._"

Kinda like what’s happening?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Thanks. I have a subscription, so the app makes that difficult for the technically challenged (Me)…
> 
> I especially liked “_In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be "pointless and extremely dangerous." It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten "the existence of Russia itself as a state._"
> 
> Kinda like what’s happening?



I don't think Russia's existence as a state is in the balance right now, but the other consequences predicted seem to be playing out.

Of course, a defeat that brings about Putin's downfall and potentially instigates a Russian civil war could see Russia's existence called into question, but I think that is at best a remote possibility.

This is certainly ruining their prestige and will likely render them unable to influence world events for a few decades to come, aside from their nukes, of course. Whether they win or lose, they've squandered their diplomatic trust, and any potential allies are looking at this fiasco and asking themselves "what do we do now?"

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## JDCAVE (Mar 22, 2022)

Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I’m going to go out on a limb and I hope I’m wrong:

I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It’s not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.

The question is, how will NATO react?

I‘m worried.

Jim

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## Jamoliva (Mar 22, 2022)

Interesting subject:
The fate of Russia’s soldiers








BBC World Service - Assignment, The fate of Russia’s soldiers


Tim Whewell follows the story of a Russian prisoner of war in Ukraine




www.bbc.co.uk


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I’m going to go out on a limb and I hope I’m wrong:
> 
> I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It’s not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.
> 
> ...



I think chemical is more likely, but I still think it will end up drawing NATO into the war, meaning that nuclear will be on the table from Putin's perspective. I believe that a chemical attack filling Western TVs and laptops with images of mass-murder will prompt a public demand for a no-fly zone that will probably be irresistible by our politicians.

At that point, of course, the danger of a nuclear exchange is increased. On the other hand NATO's strength may force Putin to negotiate more in good faith (on the assumption that no one wants to rule an irradiated desert). But it's hard to read the cards, for me.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

The other thing is that getting NATO in might be what "opens a window" as it were. Others may not be willing to let their families be at risk. There would still be a scramble for power but there always has been since the abdication of the tsar so nothing new there.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 22, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I’m going to go out on a limb and I hope I’m wrong:
> 
> I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It’s not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.
> 
> ...


Here's a good read on the possibility:









Would Russia Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine? - Modern War Institute


Recent nuclear saber rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the West to confront a question that even many national security professionals have been able to ignore for decades: […]




mwi.usma.edu

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## JDCAVE (Mar 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think chemical is more likely, but I still think it will end up drawing NATO into the war…But it's hard to read the cards, for me.


Me, you, we…everyone is trying to figure this out.

sigh.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Ukrainians go on counteroffensive even as Russia tries to subdue strategic port


Amid warnings that Russia could resort to deadlier — and unconventional — weaponry, analysts say ground offensives could be stalling.




www.yahoo.com

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## JDCAVE (Mar 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's a good read on the possibility:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…

_”However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it.”

…_but how? He offers no policy options.

Jim


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

Remember I mentioned in an earlier post how the Russian troops I was in Kosovo with did not have cold weather gear? One wanted to trade me for a pair of US Army winter boots. It shocked me then, and it still shocks me now…









Russian troops are getting frostbite in Ukraine because they don't have the right cold-weather gear, US official says


It's the latest setback Russian forces have faced in their invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops are also said to be losing morale.




www.yahoo.com

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)

Quite the thread...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Remember I mentioned in an earlier post how the Russian troops I was in Kosovo with did not have cold weather gear? One wanted to trade me for a pair of US Army winter boots. It shocked me then, and it still shocks me now…
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Why? I mean, it's not like they have bad winters in Russia, is it?

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## buffnut453 (Mar 22, 2022)

Just when I thought the whole Ukraine/Belarus/Russia thing couldn't get any weirder....









Evan Neumann: US Capitol riot suspect gets asylum in Belarus


Evan Neumann fled to Europe after being charged in connection with the 6 January riot.



www.bbc.com





Please note I offer this solely as a reflection of the craziness of the world right now. It's neither a commentary on the events in Washington DC of 6 Jan 2021, nor is it an invitation to start discussing those events.

If I'm sailing too close to the wind with this post, then would the Powers-That-Be please delete it. I don't want to start a firestorm on this excellent thread that is now in its 144th page!!!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Why? I mean, it's not like they have bad winters in Russia, is it?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…
> 
> _”However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it.”
> 
> ...



My feel for his point is that he thinks we should reconsider our all-or-nothing nuclear strategy, and make sure we prepare for that possibility (in terms of equipment and training, as well as doctrine).

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## wlewisiii (Mar 22, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Quite the thread...




Quite the clusterf**k.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 22, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…
> 
> _”However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it.”
> 
> ...


Keep in mind that the situation in the Ukraine is being closely watched by the US and NATO via high-res satellites.

This would include keeping an eye on any launch vehicles that are known nuclear capable.

I am not sure of the politics behind such a move, but if Russia were to launch a low-yeild short range nuclear missile, I wouldn't put it past the USN to intercept it in flight from one of the several USN Aegis Cruisers in the area.

There's alot going on behind the scenes that we (and the media) are not privy to.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

I suspect any use of chemical weapons or a solitary, low-yield nuke will result in the gloves being thrown off, and NATO will go in with all guns blazing. Putin either has to go big, and nuke the rest of US and Europe, or go home. I'm not saying he isn't deluded enough to try any of these options but I simply don't see the world standing by and accepting the use of chemical weapons or nukes without a military response. Then again...I've been surprised before.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)

If it does come down to a nuclear slugfest, the question is, will the Russian medium/long range missiles survive the Allied countermeasures AND how good are their countermeasures for the enevitable inbound strike?

The old cold war joke was that the Soviets had so many missiles because they wanted to be sure one or two made it through...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Quite the thread...






wlewisiii said:


>




Given the low moral within the RF and with the lower echelons (and not so low) not so deluged about the invasion and the future of Rusia if santions continues, it could be possible that somewhere down the command chain the order to fire chems or nukes stops and go nowhere?

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 23, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It’s not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.


What would be Putin’s motivation for nukes or chemical weapons? The Ukrainians that survive won’t surrender, and Putin will have killed Russian troops and made significant parts of Putin’s coveted Ukraine uninhabitable. Any such strikes on Mariupol or Kyiv will see the prevailing winds poison the Russian to the east, including Moscow and Volgagrad, which even the best propaganda will have trouble spinning. There would likely be a Brutus in Russia to deal with then.


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## Snautzer01 (Mar 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 662258

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I suspect any use of chemical weapons or a solitary, low-yield nuke will result in the gloves being thrown off, and NATO will go in with all guns blazing.


I can see NATO going into Ukraine but not into Russia proper. The question is, what does Russia do in response? Given their shoddy performance, I don’t see Russia launching ground attacks into the Baltic Reps or Poland, but missile strikes, yes. Its SSNs around the globe may begin attacking western warships and civilian ships - NATO’s SSNs and potent SSKs won’t sit back and watch. Once the submarine war begins it‘s close to gloves off. I wouldn‘t want to be on a 40 year old Victoria class SSK if facing a Yasen-class.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 23, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Russian minority -- in the Ukraine?


Those identifying as Russian are definitely in the minority in Ukraine now. That is unless you buy Putard's line that "there are no Ukrainians, just Russians trapped in a hostile state and infected with alien ideas". We old dynasaurs that grew up in the shadow of the cold war tend to think of them all as "Russkis", but times have changed and old habits die hard.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2022)

I wonder if they are gonna see all Russians as potential 5th columnists: That's not good when any nation starts to develop that mindset.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Given the low moral within the RF and with the lower echelons (and not so low) not so deluged about the invasion and the future of Rusia if santions continues, it could be possible that somewhere down the command chain the order to fire chems or nukes stops and go nowhere?


I’m hoping that’s the case myself. Just how rational/informed/committed to the Czar are the theater commanders?
I can’t remember the name of the Soviet naval officer who didn’t go along with launching a nuke from a sub during the Cuban Missile crisis. The world’s survival might hang on such an officer now.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2022)

Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States


One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States
> 
> 
> One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...
> ...


It amazes me that Putin thinks the West shouldn’t interfere. Is he that out of touch with reality that he’s upset we don’t believe a word he says? That we shouldn’t defend ourselves because that’s his view?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 23, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Those identifying as Russian are definitely in the minority in Ukraine now.


I know several loyal Ukranians who only speak Russian (and now English) as they’re from the Soviet era when the Ukrainian language was repressed. Much like here in Canada where most indigenous people don’t speak their historic languages, or how most Irish and Welsh can’t speak their mother tongues. The US actress Mila Kunis identifies as Ukrainian but speaks only Russian, for example. I imagine Russian-only speakers will have trouble proving their loyalty to the Ukrainian forces as they retake places. Civilian level IFF has to be a challenge.

In 2018 I was working a trade show in Germany with my Ukrainian-born colleague. When Ukrainian-speakers came to our booth she was effervescently friendly, welcoming, expressing real joy - clearly to Ukrainians everyone in Ukraine is a cousin or blood brother. But when Russians came, her fluent Russian came out like a hostage taking, and the glint of hatred and potential violence in her eyes was palpable. I moved the stapler and promotional pens away. Wholly justifiable IMO. I don’t think we sold anything to Russians that day.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It amazes me that Putin thinks the West shouldn’t interfere. Is he that out of touch with reality that he’s upset we don’t believe a word he says? That we shouldn’t defend ourselves because that’s his view?


My guess is if Putin uses chemical weapons or begins mass executions NATO will march into Ukraine as “peacekeepers”, but not an inch into Russian territory. If NATO is smart they’ll bring boots, food and media coverage for the now desperate Russians.

Tactical nukes are off the table IMO. Any strike against Kyiv or Mariupol will see the prevailing winds send nuclear fallout straight into Moscow and Volgrad. Much could also be said for any large use of chemical weapons.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States
> 
> 
> One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...
> ...



And there's that dictator-bully/whiny-bitch dual modality at play again. 

Putin wants his way and throws tantrums if he doesn't get it. Any objection to Putin getting his way is not simply a disagreement: it means the person/organization objecting is an "enemy of Russia" (because Putin IS Russia). That extends to any message that is not perfectly aligned with whatever Putin spouts.

And this is the REALLY dangerous part of all this...Putin clearly sees himself as the embodiment of Russia. We've already heard from one of his cronies that "there's no world if there's no Russia" (or words to that effect). Thus if Putin IS Russia, then no Putin means there's no Russia...and if there's no Russia, then what's the point of the world? Against that backdrop, the possibility of Putin hitting the big red button increases somewhat in my simple mind.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

C’mon RF professional soldiers. Purge that mental case!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?









Putin Adviser Chubais Quits Over Ukraine War and Leaves Russia


Russian climate envoy Anatoly Chubais has stepped down and left the country, citing his opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to two people familiar with the situation, becoming the highest-level official to break with the Kremlin over the invasion.




www.bloomberg.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My guess is if Putin uses chemical weapons or begins mass executions NATO will march into Ukraine as “peacekeepers”, but not an inch into Russian territory. If NATO is smart they’ll bring boots, food and media coverage for the now desperate Russians.



The video posted upthread with the four retired SACEURs in a video roundtable brings this up. They seem to all be in agreement that a NFZ is desirable, but that a simple declaration and enforcement would widen the war. One of them suggested that the way to start it would be to fly relief supplies in on a humanitarian airlift _a la_ the Berlin Airlift, with fighters escorting the transports. If the Russian attack a mission, they are seen as actively enforcing their atrocities against outside aid. And if they don't shoot at NATO planes, then supplies can be dropped if targeting Kyiv or southern Ukraine, or landed in the western part and then trucked.

The war will widen soon if it doesn't get negotiated, I believe.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Something more significant, perhaps, is found in the second article on that page:



Bloomberg said:


> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will take part via video link in this week’s special NATO summit to discuss the war.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nice. Bloomberg doesn’t seem to let me in, so here’s another source

Russia's Chubais leaves post as Putin's special representative -source

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)



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## Greg Boeser (Mar 23, 2022)

Don't know about less well equipped. Seems every man-jack is packing some sort of anti-air or anti-tank missile.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

Here's the latest from the whiny bitch:
_
Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will begin insisting that payments for Russian gas from "unfriendly countries" are made in roubles.

He's given the Russian central bank a week to find a way of switching these payments away from other currencies.

He says the change will only affect payments and that gas will continue to be supplied in line with existing contracts. It's not clear what the impact of this decision will be.

Putin says the freeze on Russian assets by Western countries has destroyed trust and that his country's economy has been hit hard by sanctions imposed by the West over Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Sanctions include a move to restrict Russian access to international payment systems._

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m hoping that’s the case myself. Just how rational/informed/committed to the Czar are the theater commanders?
> I can’t remember the name of the Soviet naval officer who didn’t go along with launching a nuke from a sub during the Cuban Missile crisis. The world’s survival might hang on such an officer now.


There were two instances, actually.
The one you're thinking of, was Vasily Arkhipov aboard sub B-59.

Another and very dangerous situation was averted by Stanislav Petrov of the Soviet Air Defense.

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## at6 (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Here's the latest from the whiny bitch:
> 
> _Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will begin insisting that payments for Russian gas from "unfriendly countries" are made in roubles.
> 
> ...


What if customers insist on paying in Bolivars?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Here's the latest from the whiny bitch:
> 
> _Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will begin insisting that payments for Russian gas from "unfriendly countries" are made in roubles.
> 
> ...


Funny how Putler can be so upset at the world.

Can't a despot start a war without pesky outsiders interfering, these days?

And I suppose he missed the history class where they taught about the founding and growth of the Kievan dynasty, which included parts of modern Russia - in other words, the Ukraine is not part of Russia, but the other way around...

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## taly01 (Mar 23, 2022)

> What if customers insist on paying in Bolivars?



There is serious talk India will deal in Ruble<->Rupee and China in Ruble<->Yuan, the big test is if Saudi Arabia will sell oil NOT in $USD.

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## Jerad (Mar 23, 2022)

ZSU with Azov fighters stopped rf special forces 20\03\22 Mariupol



ZSU knocked out RF soldiers from trenches. Published 20\03\22



Gostomel 20 km north Kiev, destroyed column Russian Federation. Published 4\03\2022



ZSU artillery near Kiev 22\03\2022

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## JDCAVE (Mar 23, 2022)

at6 said:


> What if customers insist on paying in Bolivars?


Maybe he’ll accept Canadian Tire money?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

Hey, remember this?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey, remember this?
> View attachment 662328



Plus its all about protecting Europe from Putler, so Europe should be the chess board.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

Another quick update for those who haven't seen it. The mention of EW equipment piqued my interest since that's my "thang" at present:
_
A Russian lieutenant colonel has been captured by Ukrainian forces, a Western official has confirmed.

Ukraine has conducted "limited counter attacks", they said, which had led to the destruction of Russian equipment and capture of some Russian personnel.

"In the area in which he was captured, there was a significant amount of electronic warfare equipment. It's unclear whether he was personally connected with that, but it's something we're looking into currently," the western official said.

Overall, six Russian generals are now thought to have been killed, the most senior is a lieutenant general who was commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. All six will have been replaced, they say.

The official said it was 'remarkable' that Hostomel airport was still being fought over when it was a Day One objective for Russian forces.

They still expect Russian forces to try and edge towards the capital bringing more artillery into range. But Ukrainian forces are doing "well", they say, to take small towns back from Russian forces. In coming days, they expect a focus more on Russian forces manoeuvring in the east of the country.

Russia has been frustrated in its plan to move on three axes simultaneously and may focus more on the east. A concern is that if the Russian forces make breakthroughs, they could surround the main Ukrainian fighting force, the JFO, in the east, the official said.

"The Ukrainian forces there are strong, but they do have a challenge that they potentially have forces coming at them in three directions. This is probably the area where we have the greatest concern," they said._

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And I suppose he missed the history class where they taught about the founding and growth of the Kievan dynasty, which included parts of modern Russia - in other words, the Ukraine is not part of Russia, but the other way around...



This may be a repeat but it still makes me laugh...it was a meme posted by the US Embassy in Kyiv back on 22 Feb that quite viciously mocks Moscow (clearly an "unfriendly" action):

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## GTX (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Just when I thought the whole Ukraine/Belarus/Russia thing couldn't get any weirder....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Birds of a feather...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

He has been granted an unlimited stay.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 23, 2022)

Jerad said:


> ZSU with Azov fighters stopped rf special forces 20\03\22 Mariupol



Do anyboby know what are the documents 8n the red folder of this video?


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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Mar 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 662352


Thats cold true perhaps but stone cold

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 23, 2022)

Ill trump that

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## J_P_C (Mar 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Do anyboby know what are the documents 8n the red folder of this video?


record of usage vehicles, consumption of fuel and lubricants

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2022)

Should show tanks being dragged away

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2022)

Russia’s Ministry of Defense Head Sergei Shoigu reportedly missing, hasn't made public appearances in 12 days


The head of Russia’s Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu reportedly disappeared and hasn't made public appearances in 12 days as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues a witch hunt of his inner circle as the invasion of Ukraine continues.




www.yahoo.com

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## gumbyk (Mar 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia’s Ministry of Defense Head Sergei Shoigu reportedly missing, hasn't made public appearances in 12 days
> 
> 
> The head of Russia’s Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu reportedly disappeared and hasn't made public appearances in 12 days as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues a witch hunt of his inner circle as the invasion of Ukraine continues.
> ...


Sick with Polonium poisoning....

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## SaparotRob (Mar 23, 2022)

Let's do a quick resupply of Ukrainian units trying relieve Mariupol. Just to make Putin even wackier, a little. 

I started out joking but maybe something like that might be enough to "spine up" the remaining generals to relieve Putler for gross incompetence. Or something.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Sick with Polonium poisoning....



Or in a Siberian Gulag.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Let's do a quick resupply of Ukrainian units trying relieve Mariupol. Just to make Putin even wackier, a little.
> 
> I started out joking but maybe something like that might be enough to "spine up" the remaining generals to relieve Putler for gross incompetence. Or something.



That’s what I hope the sanctioning of the law makers does.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Putin says the freeze on Russian assets by Western countries has destroyed trust [...]



Yeah, and forcibly annexing a part of a neighbor, and then invading the remainder, is the act of a trustworthy leader.

Putin wouldn't know trust if it bit him square in the ass anyway -- he's a career spook, a career field where trust is generally a weakness.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

taly01 said:


> There is serious talk India will deal in Ruble<->Rupee and China in Ruble<->Yuan, the big test is if Saudi Arabia will sell oil NOT in $USD.



If they decide to sell in rubles, we should cut our aid for their horrific Yemen war.

Well, we should do that anyway, because it's easily as bad as Ukraine, from the perspective of the suffering civilians.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Russia's global assets should be used to compensate Ukrainian civilians and to rebuild their towns and cities.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He has been granted an unlimited stay.



Fine by me. He may regret at his own leisure.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He has been granted an unlimited stay.


I'm reminded of the old saying "Be careful what you wish for; You might get it."

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

An unlimited stay? Ja, tovarich. Freedom to leave when you please? Nyet!!!!

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

More missiles for the good guys:

_British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce on Thursday that the UK will provide Ukraine with about 6,000 extra missiles.

At the Nato and G7 leaders' meetings in Brussels, Johnson will also unveil £25m ($33m) of funding to help pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots.

The UK government will also provide £4.1m for the BBC World Service to help support its Ukrainian and Russian language services in the region.

"The United Kingdom will work with our allies to step up military and economic support to Ukraine, strengthening their defences as they turn the tide in this fight," Johnson said.

"One month into this crisis, the international community faces a choice. We can keep the flame of freedom alive in Ukraine, or risk it being snuffed out across Europe and the world."

Britain said the new package will come on top of around 4,000 missiles already provided by the UK to Ukrainian forces.

The latest funding is in addition to £400m already committed in humanitarian and economic aid, said UK officials._

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## buffnut453 (Mar 23, 2022)

And yet more whining about "anti-Russian" political manoeuvring:

_It's getting harder and harder for Russia to deny its isolation on the international stage.

Besides its ally, China, all 13 members abstained from voting on Moscow's draft.

The common message from most members was if Russia cared, and wanted to relieve the suffering of the Ukrainian people, it could end its war now.

Instead, Russia's draft does not even recognise it is the sole cause of the humanitarian disaster or respond to the realities on the ground.

Ukraine has its own humanitarian resolution set for a vote in the General Assembly, where Russia cannot wield its veto.

Still, Moscow doesn't show any sign of changing course.

It denounced the latest General Assembly vote as another anti-Russian show and blamed the humanitarian devastation on Ukrainian "nationalists and radicals".

As British diplomat Barbara Woodward told me after the vote: "I think Russia has consistently misplayed its hand here, and seriously underestimated the consequences of what it's done and the international perception of what it's done.

"They tabled this resolution over a week ago and they kept it on the table and rolled it forward. And, we saw the result today. Only one country supported Russia."_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> An unlimited stay? Ja, tovarich. Freedom to leave when you please? Nyet!!!!



Seems like a good time for a musical interlude:

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)

One more - I'm praying for this!

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or in a Siberian Gulag.


Comrade General, it is time you inspected the defenses along our northeastern flank.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Comrade General, it is time you inspected the defenses along our northeastern flank.


"and you will take this cellphone and check in with us on the hour, telling us exactly where you are..."

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## swampyankee (Mar 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah, and forcibly annexing a part of a neighbor, and then invading the remainder, is the act of a trustworthy leader.
> 
> Putin wouldn't know trust if it bit him square in the ass anyway -- he's a career spook, a career field where trust is generally a weakness.


In addition, Russia had previously guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and borders. 

Putin was a KGB officer. This is not a group noted for their strong support of democracy, fair judiciaries, or morality.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 23, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)

Heh. According to this: Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

the Ukrainians have captured more tanks than they've destroyed... LOL!!!

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## GrauGeist (Mar 23, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 23, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> In addition, Russia had previously guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and borders.
> 
> Putin was a KGB officer. This is not a group noted for their strong support of democracy, fair judiciaries, or morality.



And yet he whines about "trust" as if he's earnt it. This is a feeble attempt at gaslighting.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



The only conclusion I drew on this was this guy lost me within 30 seconds.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> The only conclusion I drew on this was this guy lost me within 30 seconds.


Really? I find him quite interesting and, as a current armor branch officer as well as armor historian, very useful to listen to. I don't completely agree though he makes very good points on both sides using propaganda and questioning where are the large Ukrainian army maneuver units (though the recent counter offensives may be answering that). May well be that it's very similar to the kinds of briefings and analysis I was familiar with at BN & BDE S-2 shops.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Really? I find him quite interesting and, as a current armor branch officer as well as armor historian, very useful to listen to. I don't completely agree though he makes very good points on both sides using propaganda and questioning where are the large Ukrainian army maneuver units (though the recent counter offensives may be answering that). May well be that it's very similar to the kinds of briefings and analysis I was familiar with at BN & BDE S-2 shops.


He may have a great background and may have some great points but his delivery is boring IMO. In my short and uneventful career in the military, I can see him being run off a podium by a higher ranking officer within minutes. I can use his clip as background noise to fall asleep!

Compare his narrative to Ward Carroll

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## wlewisiii (Mar 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> He may have a great background and my have some great points but his delivery is boring IMO. In my short and uneventful career in the military, I can see him being run off a podium by a higher ranking officer within minutes. I can use his clip as background noise to fall asleep!
> 
> Compare his narrative to Ward Carroll


Ward is a good entertainer, but I find it harder to follow his arguments. For information, I find this approach preferable. Thank you for explaining though, I do appreciate knowing that.

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## Zipper730 (Mar 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m hoping that’s the case myself. Just how rational/informed/committed to the Czar are the theater commanders?
> I can’t remember the name of the Soviet naval officer who didn’t go along with launching a nuke from a sub during the Cuban Missile crisis. The world’s survival might hang on such an officer now.


I'm not sure, but Captain Arkhipov didn't launch the torpedo out of a moral reservation against using nuclear weapons: He realized we weren't trying to sink the submarine flotilla he commanded. He realized they were using fairly low power charges and trying to scare them to the surface.

Likewise Lt. Col. Petrov didn't confirm the launch order as authentic because he figured it was unlikely to be real: Only one launch was registered at first, followed by another four over a window of a few minutes. Since the USSR & USA would have both launched massive numbers of missiles (for a variety of reasons, some of the launches would have probably been in a staggered fashion, but the numbers would be unmistakeable).

In November, 1979: NORAD had a false alarm which indicated 300 ballistic missile launches followed by another 1900 as a chaser. The data flowing in, as a I remember reading, listed all data as being authentic. Because it was a fairly low ebb during the Cold War (Afghanistan didn't occur until around Christmas of 1979), there was a decision made to actually call each of the sites and determine if the data flowing in was correct (fortunately, they reported nothing).

Ultimately, the cause was a simulator tape that had been put in, which ended up on the main-display. Since it didn't have "simulation" on it, it looked like the real thing. While the actual cause was never fully duplicated, the decision to ensure that there weren't any connections from where the simulator tape was inserted to the main-display appeared to have been made: Interestingly, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, there was a case where somebody put in a simulator tape which displayed a single incoming launch. Because most missiles in those days didn't have storable propellant (most used RP-1 and LOx), it would take around 10-15 minutes to ready the missile upon receiving orders to launch (that said, there was a Minuteman squadron/wing being brought online during this period).

I'm honestly amazed we survived the Cold War: The biggest possibilities of triggering a nuclear exchange included political miscalculation and failures of the early warning systems that could have triggered a nuclear release.

Political Miscalculation

*1. Cuban Missile Crisis:* The USSR was abjectly terrified of the fact that we put Jupiter missiles in Turkey (their distance made reaction time short, something which was already poor in those days owing to ballistic missile design), so they decided to do the same to us (We had also adopted a strategy of containing the USSR through encirclement, which they apparently wanted to subject us to as well). It went over a lot worse than they expected, though it didn't fully seem to register how close things were getting until Maj. Anderson was shot down over Cuba on October 27. An agreement was hashed out to agree to two terms, of which one was to remove the Jupiter missiles: We only addressed one part of the issue (remove the Jupiters, which we were planning to do so anyway), ignoring the other. It would appear the other side either didn't notice, or didn't feel like making anything worse.

*2. Able Archer '83:* The USSR had become extremely paranoid, which combined with: President Reagan's fiery rhetoric, the Strategic Defense Initiative (i.e. Project Star Wars), the presence of the Pershing II MRBM's and BGM-109 Gryphon's (a Tomahawk with a nuke) in Europe, and a NATO exercise planned for November (ironically within two weeks of my birth) had them convinced we were going to use the exercise as cover for a nuclear first-strike.

Since the USSR had considered similar ruses to justify invading Europe: It seemed plausible as, it was in alignment with their mentality. Since the low-flying capabilities of the BGM-109 made them difficult to shoot down, combined with the short flight time of the Pershing II's made reaction-time virtually nonexistent (something that made it impossible for them to order a retaliatory strike), and the misguided belief that the Pershing II had an earth-penetrating warhead designed to take out hardened command bunkers (it was originally conceived to carry such a warhead, but it was cancelled for one reason or another), as well as difficulty understanding what we meant when we used the term 'First Strike' (i.e. Does it mean: "We nuke them because we realize they're an imminent threat, and we shoot first to limit our losses"? Or does it mean: "We nuke them the instant we can catch them with their pants down to get them out of our hair for good"?), resulted in the belief that we not only were planning to execute a nuclear first-strike, but would be able to pull it off without any retaliation.

When the exercise occurred, there were some communications errors that further heightened their paranoia and, it was stated that, if the exercise had continued for another day: They would have launched a nuclear strike against us believing we were inches away from doing the same.

Errors/Failures of Early Warning Systems

These are just the one's I know about. None are classified, and there's probably other non-classified cases I don't readily recall right now.

*1. October 5, 1960:* Thule's BMEWS had just been brought online less than two weeks earlier, and one of the search sectors indicated radar-echoes that were consistent with dozens of ICBM launches. Fortunately, somebody remembered their political briefing and realized that Soviet Premier Kruschev was at the United Nations. Seems odd that they'd nuke us when their head of state is effectively in New York. Since they were unable to ascertain the impact point (something they had trouble doing reliably for a few years), and none of the other radars indicated anything, which led the belief it was erroneous.

It turned out that the false alarm was caused by radar echoes bouncing off the moon as it came over the horizon. I'm amazed the radar didn't read some seriously bizarre ranges as the moon ranges from 225000-253000 miles from earth, but ultimately they had improved the range-gating system to take care of that, and as the years went by, the full system would be brought online by 1964.

*2. 11/24/1961:* Communications failed between SAC, Thule, and NORAD. Since that looked to be a plausible set of places to get taken out should the USSR attack first. Fortunately, a B-52 performing the Thule Monitor mission was able to communicate with SAC, pointing out there appeared to be no damage (the fact that there wasn't a brilliant flash that burned out anybody's retinas, or a mushroom cloud extending dozens of thousands of feet into the air might have also been a good indication whatever happened, it wasn't nuclear).

The culprit was basically a supposedly redundant communication system that wasn't all that redundant. I don't remember what caused the failure, but the fact that the lines all flowed through one location, producing a single-point of failure basically did it.

*3. Cuban Missile Crisis:* There were at least two, and I'm not sure in what order they occurred, but here you go...

a. Simulator Tape 
Already covered

b. Faulty Radar Message
Apparently there were two radar sites, one of which was new, but not as reliable as the older one (probably a mere function of it being brand new). A message indicates a missile inbound, but it's stated to be from the reliable site. Fortunately, the time to impact is a few minutes and when that expires and no earth-shattering kaboom results, the alarm goes away.

*4. Non Specific False-Alarms, Late 1970's:* We started putting up shitloads of satellites with a variety of scanners, of which infrared were among one of them. Since the USSR has loads of forests, much like parts of the United States, with some areas fairly dry, you get the occasional forest fire. The forest fire on an IR system looks like a massive thermal source that could set off the alarm for indicating an ICBM launch.

Fortunately, they were able to conclude these alarms were false for one reason or another. While I don't know the exact way they did, I would guess that it might include some of the following: The location of the thermal emission wasn't where a known ballistic missile site was; the plume wasn't rising and moving around, but remaining in place; optical systems indicated a massive forest fire and nothing else.

*5. 11/9/1979 (NORAD False Alarm):* Already covered.

*6. June, 1980:* NORAD would apparently send this test-message to SAC which would read something like "There are currently 000 missiles airborne" or something like that. All fine and dandy when the number only reads zeroes. Unfortunately a computer chip a few cents cheaper than a 2 liter bottle of pepsi caused some zeroes to read as 2's (i.e. "222 missiles airborne"), it produces a serious scare. The fact that the USSR had already invaded Afghanistan meant that the geopolitical situation was far more tense.

I'm not sure how that one was sussed out, but I'm relieved it was.

*7. 9/26/1983:* This one was Petrov's event, already covered.

*8. 1/25/1995:* That was not a typographical error, that was 19*95*, not 1985 (I was 11), the Cold War was over, and a Canadian Black Brant XII rocket sounding rocket was being readied for launch from Norway through the Aurora Borealis as part of a research project: As was the norm when launching spacecraft, the Russian Federation (probably all nuclear powers) was told specifically that this was being done to avoid fatal misunderstandings: Unfortunately, the message wasn't relayed to the top Generals, to President Yeltsin, and the Early Warning guys (guys who basically had the same job Lt. Col. Petrov had in 1983): All the people that should have been briefed on this.

So, they launch the rocket: As it starts heading on up, it was detected by Russian radar systems. The trajectory looks like it could be consistent with something coming out of the Barents Sea, where we had SSBN's at least during the Cold War. Because of the fact that one SLBM can carry multiple re-entry vehicles, and reaction time is shorter for a launch of this nature, as well as the fact that it's possible to have several warheads detonate as part of an "X-Ray Pin-Down" which would produced persistent energy that would destroy missiles attempting to be launched: They really start to panic, and it only gets worse when the rocket starts shedding stages. It looked very similar to an SLBM shot-gunning off it's RV's.

Predictably, Yeltsin is urged by his generals to launch a retaliatory strike, and given the Cheget (i.e. the Russian version of the Nuclear Football). Fortunately, he was pretty cool under pressure and, receiving no anomalous responses from satellites monitoring the missile-fields in the United States, a stand-down was ordered.



Admiral Beez said:


> Tactical nukes are off the table IMO. Any strike against Kyiv or Mariupol will see the prevailing winds send nuclear fallout straight into Moscow and Volgrad. Much could also be said for any large use of chemical weapons.


It hasn't stopped them from attacking Chernobyl, right?



buffnut453 said:


> And this is the REALLY dangerous part of all this...Putin clearly sees himself as the embodiment of Russia. We've already heard from one of his cronies that "there's no world if there's no Russia" (or words to that effect). Thus if Putin IS Russia, then no Putin means there's no Russia...and if there's no Russia, then what's the point of the world?


And there you have it: You've just illustrated the danger of the Malignant Narcissist. An amoral, paranoid, and utterly self-absorbed person who literally sees himself as mattering more than any other entity on earth. A guy like that could be inclined to order missile launches in order to ensure that "if I go down, you go with me".



FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 662352


I'm not sure if I posted this earlier, but if I could draw people well, I probably would have made political cartoons like this. I would have probably not made it to 38!

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## at6 (Mar 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


>



If the Russians run out of food, let them eat poop. No relief for Ivan.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 24, 2022)



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## J_P_C (Mar 24, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Should show tanks being dragged away


probaby that was last one - "ownership changed, vehicle moved for repainting"

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Love it. But a more accurate title is farmers helped, but the Ukrainian army led the ambush. No matter though, top points for team effort.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 24, 2022)

Nasty....

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 24, 2022)

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine


Ukraine's navy says the Orsk, which was used to ferry Russian troops, was hit in Berdyansk.



www.bbc.com

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

10 minutes of the fire on board of BDK-69 Orsk.


By the way, local tug boats that could pull the ship away, just left - as seen in the first minutes.
Probably, signing "Burn MF".

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## wlewisiii (Mar 24, 2022)

Loose lips sink ships? Apparently, they were on State TV in Moscow and the rumor is that was used to target the attack

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## Denniss (Mar 24, 2022)

AFAIR russian TV applauded it as first ship to enter the "freed" harbour. Now it's the first to sink in it.
Sad they missed the amphib assault ships that are seen to move out some mins into the vid, at least one of them is on fire in front section

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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 10 minutes of the fire on board of BDK-69 Orsk.
> 
> 
> By the way, local tug boats that could pull the ship away, just left - as seen in the first minutes.
> Probably, signing "Burn MF".




That damage NOT going to buff out. Scratch one landing ship!

I'm hearing 2 others are also on fire.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 24, 2022)

That's producing almost as much smoke as their carrier when it's underway.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 10 minutes of the fire on board of BDK-69 Orsk.
> 
> 
> By the way, local tug boats that could pull the ship away, just left - as seen in the first minutes.
> Probably, signing "Burn MF".



What a lovely present for me to wake up to. And I didn't get you anything. 
I noticed some fire behind the Orsk. A second ship or dock equipment? Love all the secondary explosions. Guess they were a little tardy off loading.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That damage NOT going to buff out. Scratch one landing ship!


Indeed, but isn’t hitting the ship after it delivered its lethal cargo a little too late? Reminds of the Battle of Malaya where IIRC the RAF attacked a Japanese troopship, but only after it had unloaded.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 24, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> That's producing almost as much smoke as their carrier when it's underway.



I can't remember the last time it steamed under its own power without breaking down ... you sure you're not adding in the tug's smoke too?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed, but isn’t hitting the ship after it delivered its lethal cargo akin a little too late? Reminds of the Battle of Malaya where IIRC RAF Blenheims destroyed a Japanese troopship, but only after it had unloaded.



Sure, but now there's less reinforcement capability for the invaders.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

It’s too bad the Ukrainian navy didn’t manage to keep their single SSK, the submarine Zaporizhzhia_. _If the Russian navy is as bad as their army this single Ukrainian submarine would have had a hoot of a time, especially if the Ukrainian submariners had received training and updates from NATO. Even better had NATO sold/donated a recently decommissioned submarine of their own.

Imagine a Perisher graduate and his sharply trained crew hunting the Russian transports, with the Russians limited by the treaty on what ASW vessels and submarines they can send into the Black Sea to counter her.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed, but isn’t hitting the ship after it delivered its lethal cargo a little too late? Reminds of the Battle of Malaya where IIRC the RAF attacked a Japanese troopship, but only after it had unloaded.



I've not seen any reporting that the Orsk was empty. Do you have a source that says it had delivered its cargo?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I've not seen any reporting that the Orsk was empty. Do you have a source that says it had delivered its cargo?


I thought the first video showed the unloading of its cargo including IFVs. But maybe that was historical footage.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2022)

A question was asked upthread about the regular manoeuvre units of the Ukrainian Army. This latest BBC report provides a small insight at a personal level:
_
The tale of Kharkiv is the story of the army that didn't fail, and an army that failed to win. Defying widespread expectations that it would collapse in short order, Russian forces have been unable to breach the Ukrainian army's lines around the north-eastern city and have not managed to encircle it.

Russia invaded at 05:00 on 24 February. The night before, 22-year-old Vlad and his brother-in-arms Mark, also 22, were at a fellow private's wedding.

When they learned of the attack, Vlad and Mark joined their battalion - the 22nd Motorised Infantry - and headed straight to the front lines. They have been there ever since.

A month on, while Russian missiles still strike at the city centre and at least half the 1.4m population have fled, there are neighbourhoods that remain untouched.

Against the regular beat of Russian artillery outside, I ask Mark and Vlad what they are fighting for.

Vlad's reply is short and to the point, "For peace in Ukraine." Mark shoots him a glance, "My comrade says for peace in Ukraine," he laughs, then he swears and asks: "Who knows? These people came to our land. No-one was waiting for them here, no-one was calling them."

Do they think of the soldiers on the other side, I wonder. Vlad says he has a message for them: "Run. Run away. Either you stay here in the ground or you go back home."

He pauses, but then adds: "Don't kill kids, destroy homes and families."

This time it is Mark who is to the point: "Go back home while you are still alive"_

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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2022)

_
In Kherson - the only large Ukrainian city captured by Russian forces - Mayor Igor Kolykhaev has posted on his Facebook page to say a huge new Ukrainian flag has been draped over the local city council building.

He says: "On the night when the city council was fired, the rope on which our state flag was held was interrupted. Today we found the opportunity to hang a new one."

Local officials have previously said there was no support for Moscow's actions in Ukraine among the city's largely Russian-speaking population.

Residents have staged regular, peaceful protests in the city, urging Russian troops to "go home"_

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## wlewisiii (Mar 24, 2022)

Just a hoot if you know anything about firearms...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 24, 2022)

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg has had his tenure extended for a year. I think this is sensible because you don't want a leadership change at this critical time. It also looks like he's paving the way for greater NATO involvement if Russia employs chemical weapons. He says the use of chemical weapons "will totally change the nature of the conflict, it will be a blatant violation of international law and it will have widespread consequences."

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg has had his tenure extended for a year. I think this is sensible because you don't want a leadership change at this critical time.


How does the combat command leadership of NATO look? Are these guys up to the job? I recall after Pearl Harbour most of the top US brass were replaced with more combat capable leaders.

Meanwhile, 1st April is the next Russian conscript intake. That should be interesting…

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s too bad the Ukrainian navy didn’t manage to keep their single SSK, the submarine Zaporizhzhia_. _If the Russian navy is as bad as their army this single Ukrainian submarine would have had a hoot of a time, especially if the Ukrainian submariners had received training and updates from NATO. Even better had NATO sold/donated a recently decommissioned submarine of their own.
> 
> Imagine a Perisher graduate and his sharply trained crew hunting the Russian transports, with the Russians limited by the treaty on what ASW vessels and submarines they can send into the Black Sea to counter her.


As someone who was trained to serve on diesel submarines, I agree with you.
Zaporizhia was under repairs in Sevastopol when it was seized in 2014. It's a shame that the Ukrainian Navy was not funded enough to acquire a couple of subs later.

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Probably, the first video with Ukrainian pilots.


And another one.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

Putin holds rally in Moscow, praises Russian troops as Ukraine fights back invasion | RCI


Russian leader says country will 'absolutely accomplish all of our plans'




ici.radio-canada.ca


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> It's a shame that the Ukrainian Navy was not funded enough to acquire a couple of subs later.


A pair of second-hand Type 214 U-boats would have been awesome.

Side question, why didn’t Ukraine fight this hard and with this level of success in 2014 to hold Crimea? Instead the place flipped for the Russians faster than Kabul fell to the Taliban.


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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> A pair of second-hand Type 214 U-boats would have been awesome.
> 
> Side question, why didn’t Ukraine fight this hard and with this level of success in 2014 to hold Crimea? Instead the place flipped for the Russians faster than Kabul fell to the Taliban.


Well, I could write 100 pages about that, referring to my personal experience (born and grew up in Sevastopol)...
Alexander Nevzorov coined a phrase: "Ukraine was lying unconscious and the Crimea stack out of her purse".
Just some facts.
The occupation of Crimea began in February 2014 when the Russian GRU seized the Parliament building in Simferopol.
Ukraine was in turmoil. Top officials who ran away from Kyiv to the Russian Federation: President, Prime Minister, Ministers of Defence, of Internal Affairs, of Justice, of Finance, one or two vice-Prime Ministers, many deputies. Head of SBU (Security Service), etc.
The situation in Crimea:
Commander of VMSU (Ukrainian Navy) who was a top military commander in Crimea, took a "sick leave" and never returned to his office. His successor betrayed Ukraine on the 2nd day after the appointment. Heads of SBU, police, military intelligence, most of the top civilian officials, - all betrayed. About 70% of military personnel deserted and half of them joined Russian forces later. Figures were even higher in police and SBU.
Attempts to resist were chaotic, while the aggressor acted according to the well-developed plans.

Now, if you ask me why all that massive treason... Many articles and books were written about information warfare, about "Gerasimov doctrine", etc. But I'd suggest finding old lectures and interviews with Yuri Bezmenov, it's a good start. Bezmenov's warnings are still valid, not only for Ukraine - for all world.

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## GTX (Mar 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



This is well worth the watch. The question re "Where are the Ukrainian heavy units" is quite interesting.


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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Another video from Berdyansk, from a different angle.
The first explosion at about 0:20.

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## Marcel (Mar 24, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I’m going to go out on a limb and I hope I’m wrong:
> 
> I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It’s not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.
> 
> ...


They don’t have chemical weapons afaik. At least they haven’t trained for using them since the’90ies and their stock was officially destroyed in 2017. Of course they could still have a small reserve of the stuff but they definitely cannot produce them in a large scale. I think it’s quite unlikely that Russia will use chemical weapons.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How does the combat command leadership of NATO look? Are these guys up to the job? I recall after Pearl Harbour most of the top US brass were replaced with more combat capable leaders.
> 
> Meanwhile, 1st April is the next Russian conscript intake. That should be interesting…



The Russians took those up already, from my reading, in anticipation of this invasion. I could be wrong and I welcome any corrections.

_In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18.[4]






Institute for the Study of War


The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains




www.understandingwar.org




_


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 10 minutes of the fire on board of BDK-69 Orsk.
> 
> 
> By the way, local tug boats that could pull the ship away, just left - as seen in the first minutes.
> Probably, signing "Burn MF".



How the fire started? Sabotage? SSM? ASM?


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## Denniss (Mar 24, 2022)

Claimed to be an attack by SS-21
Maybe captured missiles sent back to former owner with greetings from Ukraine .......

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 24, 2022)

Marcel said:


> They don’t have chemical weapons afaik. At least they haven’t trained for using them since the’90ies and their stock was officially destroyed in 2017. Of course they could still have a small reserve of the stuff but they definitely cannot produce them in a large scale.



I'm assuming that "they" in your post refers to NATO. Is this accurate?



Marcel said:


> I think it’s quite unlikely that Russia will use chemical weapons.



I generally agree unless they can apply plausible deniability -- i.e. saying they were attacking a chemical plant.

Any use of NBC weapons would be an escalation NATO would have to answer, I think. Failure to do so would set a bad precedent, much as America's "red line" in Syria was shown to be a paper tiger and allowed for many further atrocities. On the doorstep of Europe? I don't think public opinion would allow for Western half-measures.

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## Marcel (Mar 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm assuming that "they" in your post refers to NATO. Is this accurate?


No, I meant Russia. Russia signed the treaty in 1993. According to the OPCW was the whole Rusian chemical stock destroyed in 2017. Of course they can have some hidden somewhere, but the capacity to make more is not there.

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

A friend in need... Two friends are even better.

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> How the fire started? Sabotage? SSM? ASM?


Rumours say - Tochka-U
But I'm impressed with the accuracy.
Most probably, the Ukrainian Army will not disclose the type of weapon until the war ends. So we are free to speculate: Tochka-U? Vilkha? Neptune? Pion? Mysterious Hrim-2? Or the demolition team?

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## SaparotRob (Mar 24, 2022)

I'm going with Kharma.

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## Dimlee (Mar 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Believe it or not, but Chornobayevka airbase near Kherson was hit by Ukrainian artillery again - for the sixth time - last night and again Russian equipment was destroyed.
> RF army continued to use the airfield after five strikes. Where is that groundhog?


Now, sit down before you hear this.
They did it again. 
10th (tenth) time.
Chornobayevka forever.

Source: charismatic Vitaliy Kim, the head of the Mykolayiv region's administration.


Artist's impression:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 24, 2022)

Marcel said:


> No, I meant Russia. Russia signed the treaty in 1993. According to the OPCW was the whole Rusian chemical stock destroyed in 2017. Of course they can have some hidden somewhere, but the capacity to make more is not there.



Thanks for clarifying, and sorry for my misunderstanding.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 24, 2022)

Just came across this news bit.

It appears that the Russian AFV that opened fire on that sedan on the highway, killing the elderly couple, was ambushed and destroyed shortly after.

If this is the case, then justice for those grandparent came swift and hard.

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just came across this news bit.
> 
> It appears that the Russian AFV that opened fire on that sedan on the highway, killing the elderly couple, was ambushed and destroyed shortly after.
> 
> If this is the case, then justice for those grandparent came swift and hard.



Love to think it was the same, but seems one shows snow on the ground and the other doesn't.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 25, 2022)

It does point out what "The Cheiftain" mentioned in his vid. Looking at edited footage taken out of context doesn't necessarily give the true picture.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just came across this news bit.
> 
> It appears that the Russian AFV that opened fire on that sedan on the highway, killing the elderly couple, was ambushed and destroyed shortly after.
> 
> If this is the case, then justice for those grandparent came swift and hard.



It seems the news agencies from India have done a good job attaining combat footage and giving accurate coverage.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 25, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Love to think it was the same, but seems one shows snow on the ground and the other doesn't.


Note the snow where the AFV was ambushed was sparse and in shadows of the trees.
The area where the pensioners were murdered was open to sunlight (few trees, little shade).


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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

This is an unapologetic propaganda video from Ukrainian side - it's set to a song about the Russian army in Afghanistan...



And here's the song itself

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

I'm told this is an accurate translation of that song. Pardon the expletives'

The English translation of the lyrics (pardon the expletives):

Help

Too bad help didn't come,
No reinforcements were sent.
There are only two of us left,
You and I were fucked.

All the rest are dead
And the ammunition will run out soon,
But we keep the position,
We fight bravely.

The gun is dead - everything is fucked up,
there is nothing left to fight back with.
Well, let's smoke, brother fighter,
We can't escape death.

Too bad help didn't come,
No reinforcements were sent.
Business as usual,
You and I were fucked.
.

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## JDCAVE (Mar 25, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Evidently some of these cruise missiles have come from naval vessels off Odessa. I have seen film footage from Odessa showing these vessels lined up off-shore. Does Ukraine have Exocet Missiles or equivalent to take these vessels out? Can they be provided by NATO or is that equipment too difficult to deploy?
> 
> Jim


Tonight on MSNBC, Retired General Barry McCaffrey called for anti shipping misses to be sent to Ukraine. Also anti aircraft missiles. 

Jim

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It appears that the Russian AFV that opened fire on that sedan on the highway, killing the elderly couple, was ambushed and destroyed shortly after.


From the Russian AFV poorly led, fed and protected crew’s perspective, if (as shown on Ukraine media) every Ukrainian is a possible Molotov-armed partisan, where ambush by MANPATS is constantly feared, a civilian car driving towards your position might just evoke an order of kill all vehicles that approach. The Russians may have feared the car was scouting and reporting targets. It’s a war crime, but I wonder how many innocent civilians in cars were considered possible insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan and destroyed “just in case” by US and Coalition AFV crews (and drone operators).

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

So much for being greeted as a "liberator"!

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> So much for being greeted as a "liberator"!



Which supports my theory that Russians may consider every approaching civilian and vehicle a fair target.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which supports my theory that Russians may consider every approaching civilian and vehicle a fair target.


The colored arm bands are supposed to be the distinguishing uniform markings as required by the Geneva Conventions. Killing a civilian without a valid military reason can still be a war crime.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The colored arm bands are supposed to be the distinguishing uniform markings as required by the Geneva Conventions. Killing a civilian without a valid military reason can still be a war crime.


Absolutely a war crime, no debate from me.

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## RogerdeLluria (Mar 25, 2022)

More evidence of encirclement. Wish it's true.








Ukraine Has Launched Counteroffensives, Reportedly Surrounding 10,000 Russian Troops


We have our first objective observation confirming that, yes, the Ukrainian army is on the move. And the Russians near Ukraine’s capital city could be in big trouble.




www.forbes.com

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 25, 2022)

That's just awesome


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## marathag (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> but I wonder how many regular civilians in cars were considered possible insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan and destroyed by US and Coalition AFVs.


Same ROEs as the guys without a Ride as with one
The Five “S”’s
Escalation of force measure:
Shout
Show
Shove
Shoot to warn off
Shoot to kill

They were all considered as insurgents, but were left alone if overr 100 meters
Now per they guys I talked with in Vehicles, the 'Shove' for approaching vehicle was a warning shot near the vehicle, delay, the next into the engine, and if no attempt to veer off, FA into the cabin

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s a war crime, but I wonder how many innocent civilians in cars were considered possible insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan and destroyed “just in case” by US and Coalition AFV crews (and drone operators).



I was air crew so it was a lil complicated for us, but we always, always fired warning shots first that clearly let them know to not proceed, come closer, or move. We never fired in a lethal manner first.

There is a huge difference between the US/Coalition and what we are seeing from the Russians. Civilian casualties are an unfortunate side effect of war, but the US/Coalition takes great care to mitigate it. I think this comes down to the fact that we seem to place a value on human life.

We always flew with soccer balls, nets, and toys that we dropped to the children below, to try and give them some happiness in the tragedy of war. The Russians would rather drop bombs on the children.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

This is a REALLY interesting development:

*Russia to focus war on eastern Ukraine - Russian army chief*
_The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.
The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.
The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.
Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.
Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.
However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.
The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

_Russian officials on Friday said they have destroyed a fuel depot in Ukraine that was reportedly one of the largest fuel bases in the country.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov in a briefing video said high-precision weapons and cruise missiles fired from the sea struck the fuel depot near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Thursday night.

Konashenk said Russia destroyed 24 pieces of military equipment, including seven tanks and five infantry vehicles, during overnight strikes.

The fuel depot reportedly supplied the Ukrainian army in the center of the country.

Ukrainian officials did not immediately verify the attack publicly.

Reuters reported it could not immediately verify the authenticity of the attack._









Russian officials say it has destroyed major fuel depot outside Kyiv


Russian officials on Friday said they have destroyed a fuel depot in Ukraine that was reportedly one of the largest fuel bases in the country.




thehill.com





... and, when it comes to "but the US did it too" regarding war crimes ...

_Around 300 people were killed when Russia bombed a theater in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol that hundreds of people were using as a shelter, officials said on Friday, citing eyewitnesses, The Associated Press reported.

The news outlet noted that it was unclear how eyewitnesses had come to those figures or if the site had finished being excavated by emergency workers. 

A Ukrainian official said last week that over 100 people had been rescued following the Russian bombing of the theater, which had the words “children” written on either side of it.

The development comes as the Russian invasion moves into its second month, and as Mariupol has seen a number of buildings and sites struck by shelling. The southeastern city has also seen a mosque and a children’s hospital hit by Russian fire._









Officials say 300 dead in Russian airstrike on Mariupol theater


Around 300 people were killed when Russia bombed a theater in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol that hundreds of people were using as a shelter, officials said on Friday, citing eyewitnesses,




thehill.com





I can't think of the US doing anything remotely similar since My Lai -- and we prosecuted that one.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

_DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, Ukraine — As Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine enters its second month, fighting has intensified north of the capital, Kyiv. But Ukrainian forces now claim to have regained most of suburban Irpin.

According to Ukrainian regional defense officials, Russian forces are fanning out further around the city of Kyiv, but still aren’t able to get into the city.

Slavutych, a city east of Chornobyl, is surrounded by Russian forces, and the city council has ordered residents to stay inside to avoid sniper fire.

Further south, Ukrainian forces claim to have pushed back hundreds of Russian troops and captured some of their tanks. It marks the first real series of counterattacks against Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine.

Ukraine said it destroyed a Russian supply ship yesterday, as it was docked in a seaport in the county’s south. They also say Russia responded by firing two rockets at a Ukrainian military installation near the city of Dnipro overnight._









War in Ukraine live updates: As Biden visits Poland, Russian soldiers are reportedly detaining Ukrainian journalists


The president is visiting with U.S. troops on NATO's eastern flank. International groups say Russian soldiers have threatened, detained and even tortured journalists in occupied areas.



www.npr.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This is a REALLY interesting development:
> 
> *Russia to focus war on eastern Ukraine - Russian army chief*
> _The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.
> ...



That definitely reads like they're dialing back war aims in response to being overextended.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 25, 2022)

Saving Kiev for next time.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That definitely reads like they're dialing back war aims in response to being overextended.



Yep...and consolidate key gains to finalize a negotiating position. 

One can only hope!

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## SaparotRob (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That definitely reads like they're dialing back war aims in response to being overextended.


Perhaps setting up for the “We won” Declaration?

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## special ed (Mar 25, 2022)

If one watches the entire video, The civilian car with the old couple stops when the Russian convoy is seen. The Russian APV turns upon seeing the car and fires, reverses and returns to the convoy route.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which supports my theory that Russians may consider every approaching civilian and vehicle a fair target.


Except we clearly saw a Russian AFV steer into oncoming lanes and run over a car in the opening days of the war.
It stopped, backed over the car and continue in it's way. (The elderly gentleman survived, somehow)

If you go back and watch the original video, the AFV opened fire through a couple trees from a side street of that intersection. The car was not a threat.

Several other cases of this happening, too.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That definitely reads like they're dialing back war aims in response to being overextended.



That and the fact that reality is setting in that the Ukrainians have beaten them to a stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out here, they can negotiate from a strong standpoint. This goes back to the discussions earlier about cowering down to Putler and giving in to his demands. I’m glad they have not done that yet.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Except we clearly saw a Russian AFV steer into oncoming lanes and run over a car in the opening days of the war.
> It stopped, backed over the car and continue in it's way. (The elderly gentleman survived, somehow)
> 
> If you go back and watch the original video, the AFV opened fire through a couple trees from a side street of that intersection. The car was not a threat.
> ...



Exactly. This is the fundamental difference between this Russian aggression and actions by US and other Coalition partners over the past 20 years. The US and Coalition partners typically tried very hard to avoid civilian casualties. They weren't perfect. Mistakes were made and, on a few occasions, actions were deliberately taken which went against rules of engagement and killed people unnecessarily. However, in those latter situations, the actors typically were tried in court. 

What we're seeing in Ukraine is indiscriminate action against civilians without any attempt to determine if there's a threat. There are no TTPs in place of the kind that 

 marathag
outlined. The Western military forces trained and practiced those types of TTPs rigourously prior to deployment and throughout their time downrange. This is probably another pointer to (a) the lower relative training level of Russian forces (you can't expect conscripts to perform these types of TTPs in complex operational environments), and (b) the lack of Russian leadership planning and preparation.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps setting up for the “We won” Declaration?



Exactly. If he is more successful here he will claim they achieved their objectives and save face. The world knows otherwise.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That and the fact that reality is setting in that the Ukrainians have beaten them to a stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out here, they can negotiate from a strong standpoint. This goes back to the discussions earlier about cowering down to Putler and giving in to his demands. I’m glad they have not done that yet.



Agreed. The main concern that I see in this move is that it may also be a shift of focus, to encircling Ukrainian maneuver units in the eastern third which, if successful, would likely be fatal to Ukrainian liberty in the short term.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed. The main concern that I see in this move is that it may also be a shift of focus, to encircling Ukrainian maneuver units in the eastern third which, if successful, would likely be fatal to Ukrainian liberty in the short term.



Not so sure. It' seems like the bulk of the Ukrainian manoeuvre forces were in the west to help protect Kyiv.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Exactly. This is the fundamental difference between this Russian aggression and actions by US and other Coalition partners over the past 20 years. The US and Coalition partners typically tried very hard to avoid civilian casualties. They weren't perfect. Mistakes were made and, on a few occasions, actions were deliberately taken which went against rules of engagement and killed people unnecessarily. However, in those latter situations, the actors typically were tried in court.
> 
> What we're seeing in Ukraine is indiscriminate action against civilians without any attempt to determine if there's a threat. There are no TTPs in place of the kind that @marathag outlined. The Western military forces trained and practiced those types of TTPs rigourously prior to deployment and throughout their time downrange. This is probably another pointer to (a) the lower relative training level of Russian forces (you can't expect conscripts to perform these types of TTPs in complex operational environments), and (b) the lack of Russian leadership planning and preparation.



Before we deployed to Iraq, we sat through hours of ROE training, and ran through scenarios of when we could engage and when we could not. We even spent time in field training where actors were used in “real life” scenarios for us to practice and train on.

Then so know one was confused, we had an “ROE Card” that laid out the rules of engagement that we carried in our breast pocket every time we left the wire.

We had one instance where we thought this guy was setting up rocket launchers on his property. We “air assaulted” his house and captured him without firing a shot and killing anyone. It turned out it was drill equipment and he was drilling a well on his property and was released. The US commander returned later that evening to personally apologize and presented him with assistance in digging the well and other supplies.

I am fairly confident had we been Russian troops this would have ended differently…

Same in Kosovo. We treated the local population with respect and kindness. Whenever we landed the children would run out and greet us. People would come and talk to us. When we visited the Russian “protected” sectors, the people feared the Russian “peace keepers.” The people told us they were abused and the Russians looted and treated them rather poorly.

There is a difference in how both sides view human life in general. There is a huge difference in military discipline.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed. The main concern that I see in this move is that it may also be a shift of focus, to encircling Ukrainian maneuver units in the eastern third which, if successful, would likely be fatal to Ukrainian liberty in the short term.



Good points and agreed.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Another thing to point out in the difference between the US/Coalition and Russians and civilian casualties is that many of the area where the US/Coalition has fought is further complicated by the fact that the enemy lacks empathy for human life. They regularly use civilians as human shields. They would put AA guns in school yards for example, or put explosive vests on children. Yet, we still made every effort to limit civilian casualties.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That and the fact that reality is setting in that the Ukrainians have beaten them to a stalemate. If Ukraine can hold out here, they can negotiate from a strong standpoint. This goes back to the discussions earlier about cowering down to Putler and giving in to his demands. I’m glad they have not done that yet.


If the Ukranians cannot now retake all of D&L and the Black Sea coastline I think there’s strong odds the Russians will call a ceasefire and Ukraine will never get this territory back. If the Russians say we’re not leaving, is Ukraine going to recommence hostilties? The West won’t support that as much as a Ukraine under attack. So, Ukraine needs to refuse to negotiate until they’ve recaptured as much land as they can live with.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Update on Russian casualties:

_The Russian defence ministry has given an update on its military casualties – for only the second time – claiming 1,351 of its soldiers have been killed and 3,825 wounded, news agency Ria Novosti reports.

Ukrainian military sources have previously estimated that as many as 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, though this figure may include injured as well as dead. US intelligence suggests half that number may have died.

The first update from the Russian defence ministry on casualties was on 2 March, and stated that 498 servicemen had died during the invasion._


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the Ukranians cannot now retake all of D&L and the Black Sea coastline I think there’s strong odds the Russians will call a ceasefire and Ukraine will never get this territory back. If the Russians say we’re not leaving, is Ukraine going to recommence hostilties? The West won’t support that as much as a Ukraine under attack. So, Ukraine needs to refuse to negotiate until they’ve recaptured as much land as they can live with.



Certainly a possibility, but I think Ukraine would still have the upper hand. It all depends on how long Russia would have to bolster their forces. The tables would turn and the Russians would be the defender which the situation could likely favor. Remember though that in the long term it would likely lead to a long insurgency and I don’t think Russia could win that. Long drawn out insurgencies destroy morale and erode support from the civilian populations back home. 

It’s still a no win situation for Putler.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Certainly a possibility, but I think Ukraine would still have the upper hand.


I worry that the West will betray Ukraine in the peace, demanding that once a ceasefire is declared Ukraine accept sh#tty terms in order to restart capital flows. I just don’t think the West has the unity and attention span to hold a now stood down Russia to the current level of economic and political sanctions for a decade or longer.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

This is interesting (and a pretty impressive piece of journalism) because it's right where things are happening with the Ukrainian pushback of Russian forces west of Kyiv.



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533



UPDATE: The link isn't working correctly....it's the video at the top right of the page titled "Back to the town destroyed in the battle for Kyiv." Try this instead:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I worry that the West will betray Ukraine in the peace, demanding that once a ceasefire is declared Ukraine accept sh#tty terms in order to restart capital flows. I just don’t think the West has the unity and attention span to hold a now stood down Russia to the current level of economic and political sanctions for a decade or longer.



I disagree. I think the west is more unified than ever. This is the new future front line of the Cold War II. It’s in the best interest of the west to see this through.

The Russian civilian population may not see it now, but Putler failing and being toppled is in their best interest as well. Then it would be in the west’s best interest to try and help Russia rebuild and create a less corrupt government and economic system where they can strive peacefully. I fear the west will fail in doing that, and 20 years later we will be doing this all over again.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 25, 2022)

European countries are certainly looking to the long term already with a deal being struck for the US to supply LNG to Europe to
start the process of lower to no dependence on Russian supplies. This is how they will continue to sanction Russia without needing
to sanction them.

No country can afford a large military without the income required and Russia wasn't exactly flush when you look at their GDP, even before sanctions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Then it would be in the west’s best interest to try and help Russia rebuild and create a less corrupt government and economic system where they can strive peacefully. I fear the west will fail in doing that, and 20 years later we will be doing this all over again.



Agreed. I think it was a major blunder of the West to essentially not aid Russia's rebuild after the dissolution of the USSR.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Agreed. I think we really sewed the seeds for Putler, and we are seeing the fruits of that now.

It’s not much different than Germany post WW2. Had the allies treated post war Germany differently than they did, Germany would not have grown into the country it is today.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Now this is REALLY INTERESTING:
_
Two more senior Russian commanders have been killed - one of them apparently died after being attacked by his own men, a Western official has said.

The commanding officer of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, a colonel, was deliberately run over by his own troops as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade, the official said.

"That just gives an insight into perhaps some of the morale challenges that Russian forces are having," they added.

However other reports suggested the colonel - named as Yuri Medvedev - had suffered leg injuries and had been evacuated to Belarus.

A seventh general (commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army) was also killed. The Kremlin has not yet responded to the claims.

The BBC has not been able to confirm this independently._


The simple fact that a brigade is being commanded by a colonel perhaps indicates something amiss. Equally, it could reflect lack of understanding by the journalist of military rank structures.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Putin will soon have 'no choice' but to stop his invasion of Ukraine, former US general says


"Putin will have to halt his war in Ukraine sooner or later and probably in a matter of weeks," retired US Army Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan told Insider.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed. I think we really sewed the seeds for Putler, and we are seeing the fruits of that now.
> 
> It’s not much different than Germany post WW2. Had the allies treated post war Germany differently than they did, Germany would not have grown into the country it is today.



Exactly. The Marshall Plan, and especially the Berlin Airlift reinforcing our commitment to rebuilding any part of Germany we controlled, was crucial in ensuring that Germany evolved into a thriving democracy post-WWII, integrated with the rest of Europe. The Marshall Plan reaped rewards far beyond the costs incurred in executing it.

Compare and contrast that to the post-Versailles treatment of Weimar Germany, and how that treatment allowed for the rise of not only Hitler but widespread right-wing revanchism in general.

I believe, and I don't have much in the way of sourcing for this although I'm sure I could find some, that had we invested both capital and attention in the 90s to a recovering Russia, we would not be where we are today.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Now this is REALLY INTERESTING:
> 
> _Two more senior Russian commanders have been killed - one of them apparently died after being attacked by his own men, a Western official has said.
> 
> ...



From this American's perspective, with several Vietnam War veterans in his family, fragging only occurs in demoralized troops. Well-led, well-supplied troops with a clear sense of mission will generally follow through on plans if for no other reason than survival, but often with more than that as a motivational driver.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> European countries are certainly looking to the long term already with a deal being struck for the US to supply LNG to Europe to start the process of lower to no dependence on Russian supplies.


Here in Canada we have a surplus of natural gas but no where to sell it besides domestic and US markets. A new drive to LNG exports would be a nice economic boom for the Canadian economy, ports, indigenous peoples and much more. The port of Churchill, Manitoba would be ideal, being close via the Arctic Bridge to Europe and in a remote area of Canada needing investment.









Northern energy hub? | Wilderness Committee


Shipping oil by rail across northern Manitoba could be just the beginning. A government report suggests exporting liquified natural gas (LNG) from the Port of Churchill and eventually building a pipeline for Alberta bitumen.




www.wildernesscommittee.org

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 25, 2022)

Top Russian commander is killed in Ukrainian strike: military sources


Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, 48, commander of the army's 49th combined arms division, was killed in a strike by the Ukrainian armed forces, sources in Kyiv said.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Top Russian commander is killed in Ukrainian strike: military sources
> 
> 
> Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, 48, commander of the army's 49th combined arms division, was killed in a strike by the Ukrainian armed forces, sources in Kyiv said.
> ...



Sounds like the US SIGINT is passing on time/place. With absolutely terrible communications security anyone listening will know the best time and place to wack these Generals.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sounds like the US SIGINT is passing on time/place. With absolutely terrible communications security anyone listening will know the best time and place to wack these Generals.



My understanding is that Russian coms were reliant upon encrypted satellite phone links which have been shattered by air assault in-country, meaning the Russians are actually using civilian cell networks and the Ukrainians are using that info to target.

Of course, Western intel is being shared, but I'm not sure that's so real-time that it can be passed on to the Ukrainians for these targeted kills -- if that's indeed what they are.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Exactly. The Marshall Plan, and especially the Berlin Airlift reinforcing our commitment to rebuilding any part of Germany we controlled, was crucial in ensuring that Germany evolved into a thriving democracy post-WWII, integrated with the rest of Europe. The Marshall Plan reaped rewards far beyond the costs incurred in executing it.
> 
> Compare and contrast that to the post-Versailles treatment of Weimar Germany, and how that treatment allowed for the rise of not only Hitler but widespread right-wing revanchism in general.
> 
> I believe, and I don't have much in the way of sourcing for this although I'm sure I could find some, that had we invested both capital and attention in the 90s to a recovering Russia, we would not be where we are today.



Agreed

Hell compare the way the western allies treated West Germany to the way the Russian’s treated East Germany.

I was fortunate enough to get a chance to tour East Berlin and parts of East Germany back in 1988 before the fall of the wall. Took the overnight US Army Duty Train from Frankfurt, West Germany to East Berlin. It was a total culture shock for me. Hell you can still see the huge differences between the east and west today decades after German unification.

It’s no wonder to me that all these former East Bloc countries want to join NATO. They don’t want to get gobbled up under the Russian thumb and behind any future iron curtain.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It’s no wonder to me that all these former East Bloc countries want to join NATO. They don’t to get gobbled up under the Russian thumb and behind any future iron curtain.



Not to mention the economic prospects of closer ties to the West, which further gives them real security.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 25, 2022)

Can this close the skies dare go both ways. Russia says a NATO aircraft engaging a Russian aircraft would be war. So if NATO flies over Ukraine, at its invitation would the Russians shoot down clearly marked and identifiable NATO aircraft?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Can this close the skies dare go both ways. Russia says a NATO aircraft engaging a Russian aircraft would be war. So if NATO flies over Ukraine, at its invitation would the Russians shoot down clearly marked and identifiable NATO aircraft?



That’s why its not enforceable. Russia would consider any aircraft as a defense of Ukraine and legit target.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Can this close the skies dare go both ways. Russia says a NATO aircraft engaging a Russian aircraft would be war. So if NATO flies over Ukraine, at its invitation would the Russians shoot down clearly marked and identifiable NATO aircraft?



Yes, they would. They've shown no compunctions so far in killing thousands of civilians and setting a few million more to flight -- or for that matter cutting of their flight, as in the south where they've agreed to multiple cease-fires only to violate them immediately. I doubt they would care enough to look at markings if their transponders give a non-Russian return signal.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 25, 2022)

As mentioned before, a declared "no-fly" zone would have to be established by non-NATO nations with no skin in the game.
The no fly areas would be clearly indicated and provided to Ukraine and Russia with the understanding of zero-tolerance for incursions and/or "mistakes".

Many nations capable of the mission and plenty of neutral sites to base out of.

So it is entirely possible.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

So now the west is trying to “cancel Russia”… 

I bet this will be Tucker’s next message too.  









Vladimir Putin Defends JK Rowling & Claims West Is “Trying To Cancel” Russia; ‘Harry Potter’ Author Responds – Update


UPDATE, 07:45: JK Rowling responded to Vladimir Putin’s TV broadcast today in which the Russian president defended her as a victim of cancel culture and claimed the West was attempting to cancel his country. On Twitter, the Harry Potter author posted the below message in which she tried to...




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So now the west is trying to “cancel Russia”…



The irony is deafening since Russia is trying to cancel Ukraine...by bombing it back to the dark ages.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The irony is deafening since Russia is trying to cancel Ukraine...by bombing it back to the dark ages.



... and cancelling dissent inside Russia by throwing them into jail, or assassinating them with novichok in UK and other places. 

This is clearly a regime devoted to the free exchange of ideas.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> As mentioned before, a declared "no-fly" zone would have to be established by non-NATO nations with no skin in the game.
> The no fly areas would be clearly indicated and provided to Ukraine and Russia with the understanding of zero-tolerance for incursions and/or "mistakes".
> 
> Many nations capable of the mission and plenty of neutral sites to base out of.
> ...



I wonder if the Aussies could play a lead role in a non-NATO no-fly zone? They have AWACS capability, which will be critical, and are a modern, well-equipped (albeit small) military. However, they could be the nucleus around which other nations could get involved.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... and cancelling dissent inside Russia by throwing them into jail, or assassinating them with novichok in UK and other places.
> 
> This is clearly a regime devoted to the free exchange of ideas.
> View attachment 662528



Yes...free exchange of Putin's ideas. But nobody else's.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The irony is deafening since Russia is trying to cancel Ukraine...by bombing it back to the dark ages.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I wonder if the Aussies could play a lead role in a non-NATO no-fly zone? They have AWACS capability, which will be critical, and are a modern, well-equipped (albeit small) military. However, they could be the nucleus around which other nations could get involved.



I don’t think that would work because of their close ties to NATO and the west. Australia is a close ally, and most certainly would stand with NATO.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t think that would work because of their close ties to NATO and the west. Australia is a close ally, and most certainly would stand with NATO.



I know...but they aren't NATO. I picked on them because, frankly, nobody else out there has the capability to enforce a no-fly zone. There aren't many nations with AWACS capabilities and the Aussies are the only ones I can think of outside NATO. The only other one, who both sides might trust, would be Israel but I don't see Tel Aviv allowing its forces to deploy to Ukraine as that might open the door for hostile action by Iran and others.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 25, 2022)

We could try the Irish, but they'll end up fighting everybody.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> We could try the Irish, but they'll end up fighting everybody.



Including themselves.

Then again, copious quantities of Guinness and Irish whiskey can be good for negotiations.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Including themselves.
> 
> Then again, copious quantities of Guinness and Irish whiskey can be good for negotiations.


Oh, hell yeah, haven't been in a good bar fight since I was stationed in Germany.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 25, 2022)



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## Marcel (Mar 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 662533


The Volvo is indeed a tank.

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## Dimlee (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding is that Russian coms were reliant upon encrypted satellite phone links which have been shattered by air assault in-country, meaning the Russians are actually using civilian cell networks and the Ukrainians are using that info to target.


Actually, it's even more bizarre. Russian encrypted comms system "Era" was reliant on the ground cellular network. But at the same time, some RF units were given orders to destroy cellular towers in Ukraine in the first days of the invasion.

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## Dimlee (Mar 25, 2022)

Good pictures were taken after yesterday's strike in the occupied Berdyansk.
Now we know that the ship was not "Orsk" but "Saratov".
Nice shot anyway, minimal damage to the port infrastructure. I do suspect it was something more precise than old Tochka-U.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Actually, it's even more bizarre. Russian encrypted comms system "Era" was reliant on the ground cellular network. But at the same time, some RF units were given orders to destroy cellular towers in Ukraine in the first days of the invasion.



Yup...a No Strike List is a pretty standard part of the targeting process. Seems like there's even more "left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing" within the Russian operation than I've seen in Western ops...and I've seen some absolute doozies.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 25, 2022)

JAMES VASQUEZ! 









US Army veteran went to Ukraine, helped blow up Russian tanks - thriftylalife


Footage of a US Army veteran from Connecticut, who joined the Ukrainian army to fight the Russian invasion, standing in front of the lines of still blazing




thriftylalife.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Actually, it's even more bizarre. Russian encrypted comms system "Era" was reliant on the ground cellular network. But at the same time, some RF units were given orders to destroy cellular towers in Ukraine in the first days of the invasion.



Our saying in English: _the left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing_. That's some serious operational clusterfuck.

ETA: I just saw that 

 buffnut453
got there first. Right call.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> JAMES VASQUEZ!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Been tempted to do likewise but as fat and out of shape as I am, I'd probably be far more help by taking my Leica and being a photojournalist instead.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 25, 2022)

Some serious teachable moments for our guys at the War College and the academies, eh?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Some serious teachable moments for our guys at the War College and the academies, eh?



I hope our officers aren't so deficient they can learn from this. These are principles that the Russians, even with their conscript forces, should have ingrained into their officer corps.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 25, 2022)

Wonder if this guy has knocked off any officers?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wali-alive-despite-russian-disinformation-1.6393191

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## GrauGeist (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I wonder if the Aussies could play a lead role in a non-NATO no-fly zone? They have AWACS capability, which will be critical, and are a modern, well-equipped (albeit small) military. However, they could be the nucleus around which other nations could get involved.


A coalition of non aligned nations that have conducted joint exercises in tje past with similarly equipped nations, perhaps?

Along with Australia, it could include elements from Sweden, Israel, Japan, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, etc.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 25, 2022)

Such a squandered opportunity for China to step up by brokering and enforcing some kind of humanitarian corridor. Instead they just sit on their hands denying anything bad is happening. Now if a Chinese plane were in Ukraine airspace, it would be interesting to see if the Russians would take a run at it. Fantasy I know but man, that would be nice.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 25, 2022)

That would indeed be interesting. 
Could Ukraine, a sovereign state, invite other nations aircraft into Ukraine? Kaputin did say there is no war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Such a squandered opportunity for China to step up by brokering and enforcing some kind of humanitarian corridor. Instead they just sit on their hands denying anything bad is happening. Now if a Chinese plane were in Ukraine airspace, it would be interesting to see if the Russians would take a run at it. Fantasy I know but man, that would be nice.



China is showing a diffidence that tells the truth about how their leadership see themselves in the world. They are awaiting events to inform their decision, rather than exercising power to influence those events.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 25, 2022)

China is reputed to have a far longer planning horizon than at least the U.S. I’ve heard that about Chinese business planning 10 years out while American industry looked no further than next quarter. This was during my “manufacturing years“. The talking heads I used to listen to on TV said that China plans long term. Based on anecdotal evidence, I believe China is a weathervane just watching to see which way the wind is blowing. 
One Chinese transport plane would be more effective protecting a formation than a squadron of F-22s IMHO.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2022)

Phew! I haven't been here since page 16 (!) and man, this thing has grown! I'll have to go read through the whole lot again, but a few thoughts on a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It's a subject I recently wrote about. I'm a staff-writer for an online business magazine, with my input concentrating on aviation subjects, naturlich, and I put something up recently on this very subject.

Firstly, NATO: NATO Secretary-of-State Jens Stoltenburg has emphatically stated that NATO won't instigate a no-fly zone because of the fear of dragging European nations into full scale war. The reason behind this is Article 5 of the NATO Charter that states that an attack against one NATO member state is an attack against all NATO member states. Putin has stated that any incursion into Ukrainian airspace by a third party operative would be considered an act of war. This means that NATO's hands are tied unless it wants war with Russia, which no one, not even the Russians want.

So, the idea of a non- NATO no-fly zone has been toyed with and discussed, but at this stage there isn't the stomach for it for various reasons and we'll get to those soon. It has been proposed that a UN mandated no-fly zone is an option. It would have one immediate effect in that if the UN did propose such a resolution, like its previous one in which the overwhelming majority voted for Russia leaving Ukraine, it would be a more tangible recognition that the situation would be viewed as Russia versus the World in supporting such an action and not just Russia versus NATO, which it currently is, because of the persistent calls for a NATO no-fly zone.

The next point is that it then renders Article 5 invalid as the resolution would be implemented by the UN, not NATO, even though NATO member states would be providing the bulk of the equipment required to enforce a no-fly zone. The political difference here is the crux of the matter. If a UN member state aircraft were shot down, which also happened to be a NATO member state, because the no-fly zone was UN mandated, Article 5 would not apply.

Some analysts have proposed a limited UN mandated no-fly zone over the western half of Ukraine to protect refugees, which is doable and would have political support from world leaders owing to the humanitarian slant. This would focus on centres like Lviv, which is far enough to the west to be out of range of Russian military action at this stage and from where the humanitarian bodies are based within the country in aiding the refugee crisis.

The problem with all this is it doesn't consider the Russian reaction if the UN gets involved. Putin has "nuclear messaged" before, a term that indicates a threat of the use of nuclear weapons to enforce a point (I wrote a piece on this, too), which could see the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons into the warzone.

Another point that has been raised regarding the action over the east of the country is that thus far, Russian air capability has been of limited application, certainly against what has been expected and what Russia has within its arsenal. What has been making appearances are Su-34 and Su-25 strike aircraft carrying largely 'dumb' weapons as opposed to 'smart' weapons and, as predicted, losses have been mounting, the Ukrainians having shot down both types. Helicopters, such as Mil-17s, Mil-24s, Mil-28s and Ka-52s have all been active and examples of all have been lost to ground fire.

This has led observers to point out that the majority of the destruction wrought by the Russians so far has been by artillery and missiles, so, some have stated, a no-fly zone over the east would be of little consequence. Imposing one would, of course then prompt calls for NATO/UN aircraft to carry out strikes against Russian supply lines etc, which definitely would invoke war...

Some photos I had put in my article, the Rafale M has been conducting patrols along the Polish border, NATO nation Vipers, Rivet Joint EW aircraft are currently on anti-air patrols and would support a no-fly zone and a Ukrainian Su-27, a nice piccie I had to find a use for.





Rafale M




NATO Vipers




Rivet Joint




Su-27

Excuse the lengthy post... Off to paint the deck before the summer sun fades.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> China is reputed to have a far longer planning horizon than at least the U.S. I’ve heard that about Chinese business planning 10 years out while American industry looked no further than next quarter. This was during my “manufacturing years“. The talking heads I used to listen to on TV said that China plans long term. Based on anecdotal evidence, I believe China is a weathervane just watching to see which way the wind is blowing.
> One Chinese transport plane would be more effective protecting a formation than a squadron of F-22s IMHO.



Right, but can they, do they, respond to unfolding events in a supple manner?

The long-term is a great way to look at things, , but so too does a quick response allow a large nation to turn tight corners. Working in the long-term can telegraph motives.

One Chinese relief sortie would matter a lot more in terms of the message it send to Putin, rather than any shielding capacity.

I'm not sure the Chinese will come out ahead here. If they support Russia reclaiming Ukraine, that comports with their view towards Taiwan; but if they say it's not okay for Russia to do this, they sit on the side of world opinion, and undercut their own reasoning for reclaiming Taiwan.

Long-term thinking must be able to cope with these exigencies. The Chinese are running along a narrow bridge.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> It has been proposed that a UN mandated no-fly zone is an option. It would have one immediate effect in that if the UN did propose such a resolution, like its previous one in which the overwhelming majority voted for Russia leaving Ukraine, it would be a more tangible recognition that the situation would be viewed as Russia versus the World in supporting such an action and not just Russia versus NATO, which it currently is, because of the persistent calls for a NATO no-fly zone.



How do you get this past a Russian Security Council veto?

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## GTX (Mar 25, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I bet this will be Tucker’s next message too.


Yes, I am sure Comrade Carlson will be all over that

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## GTX (Mar 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I know...but they aren't NATO. I picked on them because, frankly, nobody else out there has the capability to enforce a no-fly zone. There aren't many nations with AWACS capabilities and the Aussies are the only ones I can think of outside NATO. The only other one, who both sides might trust, would be Israel but I don't see Tel Aviv allowing its forces to deploy to Ukraine as that might open the door for hostile action by Iran and others.


Maybe Australia, Israel, Sweden, Japan even India

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## buffnut453 (Mar 25, 2022)

So…apparently the MIA General in the Russian MOD had a heart attack after Putin tore him off a strip for not winning the war. Maybe….just maybe this will be a clue to the other cronies that maybe, just maybe, Putin isn’t a very nice man:

_Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, has claimed that Russia's defence minister suffered a heart attack. 

Sergei Shoigu had not been seen publicly since 11 March, until he appeared briefly in a video released by Putin on Thursday 24 March. 

"Shoigu's heart attack happened after a tough accusation by Putin for a complete failure of the invasion of Ukraine," Gerashchenko wrote on Facebook, adding that he is currently "undergoing rehabilitation" in hospital. 

There has been no confirmation from Russia of Shoigu's alleged health problems._

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> How do you get this past a Russian Security Council veto?



Mr Nyet is alive and well, so it seems. It wouldn't if Russia did choose to veto within the UNSC, but that shouldn't be a reason why it shouldn't be voted on nonetheless. The political ramifications are great and it still signals that this fight is Russia versus the world, not Russia versus NATO or Ukraine. It needn't necessarily be mentioned that the rest of the world oppose this invasion, so even to be seen to have attempted and failed is better than to have done nothing.

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## Crimea_River (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Chinese are running along a narrow bridge.


 More like sitting on a pointy fence.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Mr Nyet is alive and well, so it seems. It wouldn't if Russia did choose to veto within the UNSC, but that shouldn't be a reason why it shouldn't be voted on nonetheless. The political ramifications are great and it still signals that this fight is Russia versus the world, not Russia versus NATO or Ukraine. It needn't necessarily be mentioned that the rest of the world oppose this invasion, so even to be seen to have attempted and failed is better than to have done nothing.



China will likely abstain, leaving US, UK, and France voting to censure Russia. Fat lot of good that does, because we already know who's lined up where.

Vote on it 'til the cows come home, the two autocracies on the Security Council will not vote to support the defense of democracy, I don't think.

Everyone already knows that most of the world is against Russia's invasion, and I doubt that matters in Moscow, UN vote or no.


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## Wildcat (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> China is showing a diffidence that tells the truth about how their leadership see themselves in the world. They are awaiting events to inform their decision, rather than exercising power to influence those events.


Agreed. In the meantime, however, in our neck of the woods they continue with their plans in the Indo-Pacific...
Solomon Islands defends plans to expand security ties with China, as Canberra, Wellington express concern

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> China will likely abstain, leaving US, UK, and France voting to censure Russia. Fat lot of good that does, because we already know who's lined up where.



Abstention doesn't stop a vote from going ahead. The thing is, even if a limited no-fly zone could be imposed over Western Ukraine, the risks are high and it does depend on world nations and their commitment. If it is angled toward humanitarian reasons, the Russians would look real bad since they are playing the humanitarian crisis card at the moment. The rest of the world is denouncing Russian claims by stating that the end of the conflict and Russian military withdrawal is the only answer to the humanitarian crisis, naturally, but this signals a very different intent and if Russia was to vote against, they look even worse than they do now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Agreed. In the meantime, however, in our neck of the woods they continue with their plans in the Indo-Pacific...
> Solomon Islands defends plans to expand security ties with China, as Canberra, Wellington express concern



I read of that earlier today. It's disturbing, and all the more so because it's taking place while the world is distracted. Whether the Chinese can parlay that into solid support of their aims in the South China Sea remains to be seen, but it must be another consideration.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Abstention doesn't stop a vote from going ahead. The thing is, even if a limited no-fly zone could be imposed over Western Ukraine, the risks are high and it does depend on world nations and their commitment. If it is angled toward humanitarian reasons, the Russians would look real bad since they are playing the humanitarian crisis card at the moment. The rest of the world is denouncing Russian claims by stating that the end of the conflict and Russian military withdrawal is the only answer to the humanitarian crisis, naturally, but this signals a very different intent and if Russia was to vote against, they look even worse than they do now.



One Russian Security Council veto blocks the whole thing. The Chinese abstention is just a plus, to Putin. And I don't think at this point he cares about optics. I mean, he's already rolled the dice.

Russia will, I think, pull back into defensive positions not because of world opinion, but because they are running out of military to accomplish the mission they set themselves to achieve.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And I don't think at this point he cares about optics. I mean, he's already rolled the dice.



Putin might not, but despite his claim that he is Russia, the country is not totally independent of the world. Russia has a lot to answer for already over this war and the damage has been done. Again though, the Russian ambassador cannot be seen to be making claims about the humanitarian crisis on one hand and preventing a resolution from going ahead that aids in the protection of refugees on the other.



Thumpalumpacus said:


> Russia will, I think, pull back into defensive positions not because of world opinion, but because they are running out of military to accomplish the mission they set themselves to achieve.



Very true, as is currently being demonstrated, but what happens afterwards is vital and world opinion will influence that considerably. Russia's list of allies is getting smaller and the ramifications from this war will be enormous, even if it manages to dethrone Zelenskiy. Regional stability has been completely altered and it will result in an escalation of military capability against Russia in Eastern Europe as both sides will bolster their defences at the Ukraine/Belorussian borders with NATO nations. Ukraine won't have the capability to house the weapons that Putin is afraid of, but Romania and Poland most definitely will, as will the Baltic states. The future for Russia is bleak.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 25, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 25, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Putin might not, but despite his claim that he is Russia, the country is not totally independent of the world. Russia has a lot to answer for already over this war and the damage has been done. Again though, the Russian ambassador cannot be seen to be making claims about the humanitarian crisis on one hand and preventing a resolution from going ahead that aids in the protection of refugees on the other.



I know that the Russian people are both smart and empathetic, so my confuzzling them with "Putin" isn't fair and you're right to point that out. However, Putin does have a firm grasp on the body-politic there, and is indeed using this war to further that grasp, so I'm not sure the thoughts of the Russian public will matter much until those thoughts reach boiling-point.

I think everyone already knows that Russian protests about the humanitarian situation are vapid, given their various sieges and violations of cease-fires. No UN vote will alter those perceptions, because they're set already. We all know a fig-leaf when we see one.




nuuumannn said:


> Very true, as is currently being demonstrated, but what happens afterwards is vital and world opinion will influence that considerably. Russia's list of allies is getting smaller and the ramifications from this war will be enormous, even if it manages to dethrone Zelenskiy. Regional stability has been completely altered and it will result in an escalation of military capability against Russia in Eastern Europe as both sides will bolster their defences at the Ukraine/Belorussian borders with NATO nations. Ukraine won't have the capability to house the weapons that Putin is afraid of, but Romania and Poland most definitely will, as will the Baltic states. The future for Russia is bleak.



This is Putin's biggest blunder: he's squandered what little diplomatic trust Russia had in store in this invasion of Ukraine. And at the same time he's brought NATO to his country's doorstep, which he avowed to prevent. It's lose/lose for Russia. No one will trust them under Putin, and with that distrust, NATO is coming back together even as Russia shows its weakness in both diplomacy and military might.

Putin's attack on Ukraine is in this sense an attack upon the accepted order of things, but he lacks the power to overturn that order. A colossal misjudgment.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 25, 2022)

I had to laugh...









Anonymous Says It Hacked Bank of Russia, Monetary Authority Denies Claim – Bitcoin News


Anonymous has attacked the Central Bank of Russia, according to a post on social media, the monetary authority denies the claim, however.




news.bitcoin.com

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## nuuumannn (Mar 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> A colossal misjudgment.



Completely agree, Thump; Putin's done it now...

If he wanted the world to turn against Russia, then he's done that. Multilateral support for action wields a powerful signal, though.

Yes, Russia's humanitarian angle is merely virtue signalling, but a veto against protection for refugees would be a significant blow to sustaining belief in Russia in the eyes of her allies. The Russian people will see multilateral action as punishing, but it will cause more of them to open their eyes - there are plenty of Russians who support Putin, but that support erodes when knowledge of what's actually happens seeps in. The Russian media is censoring all Western outlets, but information is getting through.

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## Glider (Mar 26, 2022)

There is a lot of talk about a no fly zone. However I think people tend to forget some of the basics.

In particular that the Ukraine is a very large country and to declare a No Fly Zone would be a huge undertaking as you are in effect saying that you are going to control the sky 24/7 every day. You have to do that as any breach will be a PR victory to Russia. 

I would suggest that a better alternative is a clear undertaking that if chemical weapons are used then the full might of the NATO air forces are deployed for one day. It should be possible to clear the skies for that day and deploy GA aircraft to attack the RA ground forces and more particularly its artillery, pontoon bridges that have been positioned and supply depots. 
The Ukrainian forces seem to have the measure of the Russian Army and trying to target individual tanks and APC's would be of limited value and logistics is the Russian Achilles heal.

The message to the Russian Leaders would be clear, NATO can and will do immense damage to your forces should you repeat this action. To the troops on the ground, the message is that you are even more vulnerable than you thought and the impact on morale is likely to be significant.

We have to be realistic. It wouldn't be possible to destroy everything in a day but it will be possible to do an awful lot of damage. Russian forces outside the Ukraine will probably have to be off limits due to the risk of Nuclear escalation.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> In particular that the Ukraine is a very large country and to declare a No Fly Zone would be a huge undertaking as you are in effect saying that you are going to control the sky 24/7 every day.



A better proposal is a UN mandated limited no-fly zone over the west of the country in protection of refugees fleeing the east - again a hypothetical proposed by analysts countering the suggestion of a NATO imposed no-fly zone, which for reasons I mentioned above won't happen.

I stated that the problem with a no-fly zone over the entire country would do very little simply because the majority of damage to infrastructure and deaths of civilians is coming from artillery and missile fire, rather than Russian airpower, which inexplicably has been of limited application given the size of the Russian air forces.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> The message to the Russian Leaders would be clear, NATO can and will do immense damage to your forces should you repeat this action. To the troops on the ground, the message is that you are even more vulnerable than you thought and the impact on morale is likely to be significant.



NATO isn't going to sanction war with Russia over Ukraine. The implications of such a thing will be enormous and could result in non-strategic nuclear weapons being used in theatre, which no one wants. Not only that but since Putin has stated that any third party operating over Ukraine will result in military action, it could lead to action against NATO countries that share a border with Russia, specifically the Baltic States, who have been housing NATO military aircraft for EW and observation tasks. I just can't see that happening.

The use of chemical weapons will certainly be crossing a line, but I doubt full-scale war between NATO and Russia is worth it, to be frank. 



Glider said:


> We have to be realistic.



Indeed we do.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 26, 2022)

Why not just do it? Several prominent NATO figures (or was it the same guy, multiple times? I don't remember anymore) said we should stop telling Putin what we will or won't do. Like the man said; Ukraine is a big place. There must be known corridors. Get the supplies closer in to where it's needed. If airfields are available, maybe we might forget a few tuned-up, oil changed (skip the alignment) MiGs. Don't have to be big. What's he going to do? Command and control is a bit wobbly for RF forces. Maybe some freshly promoted generals or FSB types might decide to end this foolishness. 
Nice plot for a bad TV movie but it felt good to say.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 26, 2022)

No-fly zones over humanitarian areas was the proposal, at least to my understanding.

Russia wants to jerk around and drag NATO unto the mix, the entire airspace over the Ukraine would become a no-fly zone in a matter of hours.

And the downside to that, would mean no more Russian tanks left for Ukrainian farmers...

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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

NATO has responded to calls for a no-fly zone with a firm "No", but it was not the originator of the idea. NATO combat and support aircraft currently patrol Romanian and Polish (and Baltic States) skies as warning enough. It has also called for Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine but has publicly offered little other than this.


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## GrauGeist (Mar 26, 2022)

All the border nations have mounted patrols.
Bulgaria is the only nation so far, that does not have NATO forces bolstering their own patrols, but they (like the other eastern European nations) have ramped up their alert status.
Bulgaria was having a bit of a political issue, as their minister of defense was a member of a socialist party and heavily downplayed the invasion and actively blocked NATO support. I understand that Yanev was hastily removed by PM Petkov and they're reevaluating the situation.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

This just in...



Coming Soon! - BalkansTimes

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> All the border nations have mounted patrols.
> Bulgaria is the only nation so far, that does not have NATO forces bolstering their own patrols, but they (like the other eastern European nations) have ramped up their alert status.
> Bulgaria was having a bit of a political issue, as their minister of defense was a member of a socialist party and heavily downplayed the invasion and actively blocked NATO support. I understand that Yanev was hastily removed by PM Petkov and they're reevaluating the situation.


In february 2022 Spain sent 4 Eurofighters to bolster Bulgaria air defenses.






Spain will send four fighter jets and 130 troops to Bulgaria


<div> <p><span class="caps">SOFIA</span> – Spain will send




www.euronews.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 26, 2022)

That’s some low flying.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 26, 2022)

Good analysis here:



Harely a military matter, but it’s good to see my industry (pet and animal products) speaking out from Russia. It takes bravery to speak up in an absolute dictatorship.









Open letter to international pet industry - ZOOINFORM


Dear friends, colleagues and followers of Zooinform, In the recent days we’ve talked to major pet industry companies in Russia and on behalf of the whole industry of our country we address to our colleagues and business partners. Likewise the whole world we are deeply concerned about the current...




zooinform.global

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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2022)

And another Russian general has been killed:

_Another Russian general, Lt Gen Yakov Rezantsev, has been killed in a strike near the southern city of Kherson, Ukraine's defence ministry says.

Rezantsev was the commander of Russia's 49th combined army.

A Western official says he's the seventh general to die in Ukraine, and the second lieutenant general - the highest rank officer reported to have been killed.

It's thought low morale among Russian troops has forced senior officers closer to the front line.

Ukrainian media reports the general was killed at the Chornobaivka airbase, which Russia is using as a command post and has been attacked by Ukraine's military several times._

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## Glider (Mar 26, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> NATO isn't going to sanction war with Russia over Ukraine. The implications of such a thing will be enormous and could result in non-strategic nuclear weapons being used in theatre, which no one wants. Not only that but since Putin has stated that any third party operating over Ukraine will result in military action, it could lead to action against NATO countries that share a border with Russia, specifically the Baltic States, who have been housing NATO military aircraft for EW and observation tasks. I just can't see that happening.
> 
> The use of chemical weapons will certainly be crossing a line, but I doubt full-scale war between NATO and Russia is worth it, to be frank.
> 
> ...


You make some good points, that cannot be denied. However if the Russians firmly believe that the threat of a nuclear war would stop any retaliatory action from NATO, then they have carte blanche to use chemical weapons without any consequences. Sanctions are probably almost as tight as they can be, so there is little room for adjustment. so some form of action will be needed.

A one day hard action from the air followed by a firm cessation would hurt them but wouldn't pose a distinct threat to the existence of Russia which was one of the rules they have for the use of nuclear weapons.

Its a fine point I agree but, some form of action will need to be in place to stop chemicals weapons being used.


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## Greg Boeser (Mar 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 662600


Where did you dig up that old shot?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 26, 2022)

It's from Aug 2020. Here's slo-mo video of it

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 26, 2022)

Major General Aleksandr "Cuddle Bug" Aminov

Due to recent Generals taking a "vacation", Russia just announced the newest General in charge of the Russian operation.

Major General Aleksandr, his most recent assignment was Mrs. Anfisa 5th grade class where he studied lunch.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2022)

Interesting evaluation of "nazism" and the Azov battalion in Ukraine:




Interesting highlights for me were the decline in extreme right-wing election results such that those parties garner less of the vote than, for example, Marine Le Pen's party in France. The study of Azov Battalion social media accounts is also quite telling. People spout a lot of crap on social media and I can't imagine any strident nazi/anti-semitic views not emerging in those narratives.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 26, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> In february 2022 Spain sent 4 Eurofighters to bolster Bulgaria air defenses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As I mentioned, there was political turmoil in the government, and this is currently being addressed (hopefully not too late). Before and during the start of the Russian invasion, this was the ministry's stance:
"take urgent measures to ensure the Bulgarian skies are protected only by Bulgarian pilots with Bulgarian planes."

But there have been some changes and better heads are now prevailing.

This might give an idea of what's going on:








Experts urge Bulgaria to ask NATO for help







www.euractiv.com

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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2022)

Yet another indiscriminate murder of a civilian:


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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2022)

Biden's speech in Warsaw...really like the foot-stomp that the West does not view the Russian people as the enemy:

_Next, Joe Biden addresses the Russian people, saying he's worked with Russian leaders for decades, since the height of the Cold War.

"I've always spoken directly and honestly to you the Russian people," he says.

"Let me say this, if you're able to listen. You the Russian people are not our enemy.

"I refuse to believe you welcome the killing of innocent children and grandparents.

"Or that you accept hospitals, schools, maternity wards for God's sake, being pummelled with Russian missiles and bombs.

"Or cities being surrounded so that civilians cannot flee, supplies cut off and attempting to starve Ukrainians into submission.

"Millions of families are being driven from their homes, including half of all Ukraine's children.

"These are not the actions of a great nation."

He closes his speech with a reference to Vladimir Putin - "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 26, 2022)

_NATO Deputy-General Secretary Mircea Geoana said in an interview with The Associated Press that the group would respond if Russia used chemical or nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.

"NATO is a defensive alliance, but also it's a nuclear alliance," said Geoana, who is also the former Romanian foreign minister and ambassador to the United States. "If they will be using chemical weapons or other kinds of higher-end systems against Ukraine, this will be changing fundamentally the nature of the war that Mr. Putin has waged against Ukraine."

"I can guarantee that NATO is ready to respond proportionately," Geoana added.

Geoana would not detail to the AP what those actions could be, but his comments come as Russian officials have refused to say that Russia won't use chemical or nuclear weapons in its invasion._










NATO official says alliance would be forced to take action if Russia uses chemical, nuclear weapons


NATO Deputy-General Secretary Mircea Geoana said in an interview




thehill.com





Strategic ambiguity can be very dangerous.

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## GTX (Mar 26, 2022)

Meanwhile: 









Russia starts military drill on disputed islands off Japan


The Russian military starts a military exercise involving more than 3,000 troops on a chain of islands including those disputed with Japan, Russian news agency Interfax reports.




english.kyodonews.net

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Meanwhile:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Who knew Russia had 3,000 spare troops? These chaps are likely needed to fill gaps in Ukraine.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Who knew Russia had 3,000 spare troops?


Perhaps they don't know that they don't have those spare troops.

When Uncle Vlad knows about them, he would send straight west. 

Or maybe the troops know that Uncle Vlad needs them and just go on exercise and desertion BTW!

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## JDCAVE (Mar 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So…apparently the MIA General in the Russian MOD had a heart attack after Putin tore him off a strip for not winning the war. Maybe….just maybe this will be a clue to the other cronies that maybe, just maybe, Putin isn’t a very nice man:
> 
> _Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, has claimed that Russia's defence minister suffered a heart attack.
> 
> ...


Was it a “heart attack”? Or was his “heart _*attacked*_”?

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## Dimlee (Mar 26, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Mar 26, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Was it a “heart attack”? Or was his “heart _*attacked*_”?


Perhaps Kaputin is sending a message. Just what that message is?????


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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> However if the Russians firmly believe that the threat of a nuclear war would stop any retaliatory action from NATO, then they have carte blanche to use chemical weapons without any consequences. Sanctions are probably almost as tight as they can be, so there is little room for adjustment. so some form of action will be needed.



Yes, Glider, rightly so. The problem we face is that the Russians don't have the same regard for NBC weapons and their impact as we do. It is within their doctrine that the use of nuclear weapons in particular can and will be used outside of the counter strike scenario - in 1993 the Russians dispensed with the no-first strike pledge the Soviet Union maintained - and the same is with chemical weapons. 

They are looking for an excuse to use them already by making false claims about the US establishing factories in Ukraine - this is the Russians making bogus excuses to "justify" their actions, - the war itself is based on the premise that Nazis run Ukraine, again a bald lie designed to convince the Russian people of why they are doing what they are doing. These things are not for the rest of the world, but designed to convince the Russian people of why the government is ordering this destruction.

In the most recent link I posted, NATO Secretary Genera Jens Stoltenburg stated that NATO will supply counter-NBC equipment to Ukraine, which ominously means that NATO won't do much else beyond the intent to send peace keeping troops into the country, which the Russians have responded with a global nuclear war threat. This of course mean that NATO probably won't do anything more.

The Russians, sadly, regard human life with a much smaller value than we do.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 26, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Yes, Glider, rightly so. The problem we face is that the Russians don't have the same regard for NBC weapons and their impact as we do. It is within their doctrine that the use of nuclear weapons in particular can and will be used outside of the counter strike scenario - in 1993 the Russians dispensed with the no-first strike pledge the Soviet Union maintained - and the same is with chemical weapons.
> 
> They are looking for an excuse to use them already by making false claims about the US establishing factories in Ukraine - this is the Russians making bogus excuses to "justify" their actions, - the war itself is based on the premise that Nazis run Ukraine, again a bald lie designed to convince the Russian people of why they are doing what they are doing. These things are not for the rest of the world, but designed to convince the Russian people of why the government is ordering this destruction.
> 
> ...


Frighteningly informative.


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## Dimlee (Mar 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting evaluation of "nazism" and the Azov battalion in Ukraine:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good video. One small correction is needed. Russia did not just "back" separatists in the East as said at 01:50 but actually installed those so-called separatist regimes after a series of small scale invasions and coups in several cities, all done either by mercenaries from Russian Federation or by FSB and GRU units.
As for Azov, they have media channels where information about them can be learned without intermediaries. Youtube, Telegram, etc.

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## Dimlee (Mar 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Who knew Russia had 3,000 spare troops? These chaps are likely needed to fill gaps in Ukraine.


They did send some units from the Far East earlier. More to come to Ukraine, definitely. Troop movements from the Far East and Siberia were reported during March.

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## Dimlee (Mar 26, 2022)

If I read it right, at least one Patriot battery is in Slovakia already.








Heger: Systém Patriot na leteckej základni Sliač už chráni stredné Slovensko


Systém protivzdušnej obrany Patriot umiestnený na leteckej základni Sliač už chráni stredné Slovensko.




www.aktuality.sk

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Where did you dig up that old shot?


Saw it on social media. Not sure of age or authenticity.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

Russian general killed in Ukraine after gloating war would be over within hours



"The low morale among Russian forces reportedly saw Col Yuri Medvedev deliberately run over by his own men with a tank this week. The 37th Motor Rifle Brigade reportedly turned on him after casualties in their unit."

What the... !

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## fubar57 (Mar 26, 2022)

Fragging or tanking? Neither are a good way to go

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 26, 2022)

Karma is a beautiful thing.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 26, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Russian general killed in Ukraine after gloating war would be over within hours
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That was posted at #3033. Please do try to keep up!

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## nuuumannn (Mar 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That was posted at #3033. Please do try to keep up!



Ah, dangit, knew I should'a read through the thread... 

The news article just popped into my feed. It's not about the tank guy, but that's the first I'd heard of him.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 26, 2022)

US Army veteran who has volunteered to fight in Ukraine says he amps himself up for battle by thinking about 'punchable' Tucker Carlson


James Vasquez from Connecticut, fighting in Ukraine, tweeted that he amps himself up for battle by thinking of "punchable" Tucker Carlson.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> US Army veteran who has volunteered to fight in Ukraine says he amps himself up for battle by thinking about 'punchable' Tucker Carlson
> 
> 
> James Vasquez from Connecticut, fighting in Ukraine, tweeted that he amps himself up for battle by thinking of "punchable" Tucker Carlson.
> ...


I keep seeing this douchebag called "Tucker".
Surely that's a typo, since the T is close to the F on the keyboard...

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## GrauGeist (Mar 27, 2022)

Meanwhile, in the Ukraine:

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## GTX (Mar 27, 2022)

An interesting read:









Is Vladimir Putin preparing for war?


Haunted by the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian president is using the pandemic, the climate crisis, migration and looming conflict to turn chaos into power.




www.newstatesman.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

_Zelensky, in remarks after President Biden met with senior Ukrainian officials in Poland the day before, denounced the West for its "ping-pong about who and how should hand over jets and other defensive weapons to us," The Associated Press reported.
"I've talked to the defenders of Mariupol today. I'm in constant contact with them. Their determination, heroism and firmness are astonishing," Zelensky said in a video address, according to the AP, mentioning the seized Ukrainian city.
"If only those who have been thinking for 31 days on how to hand over dozens of jets and tanks had 1 percent of their courage," he added.
Western allies have provided Ukraine with anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, small arms and protective equipment, Reuters noted, but the military aid has not included fighter jets, which Kyiv has requested on a number of occasions. Earlier this month, the Pentagon said Poland's proposal to transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to a U.S. air base in Germany so they could be sent to Ukraine was not "tenable."_









Zelensky calls for planes, tanks from NATO allies


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called on NATO allies to provide planes and tanks to Kyiv as it defends itself from Russia’s invasion, while also asking if members of the military alliance are afrai




thehill.com






_Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that his country would consider neutral status as part of a peace deal if the such an agreement was guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum.

"Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelensky said, according to Reuters.

Zelensky also said that his country was considering using Russian language in Ukraine as part of its talks with Russia, but the president refused to discuss Moscow's other demands.

His remarks came in a 90-minute video call with Russian journalists. Russian authorities had previously warned Russian media that they should not report on the call, Reuters noted.

Over one month into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said on Sunday that a failure to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty would mean that "brutality, oligarchy and war criminals prevail on our planet."_









Zelensky opens door to making neutral status part of peace deal


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that his country would consider neutral status as part of a peace deal if the such an agreement was guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum.




thehill.com





I agree with Madame Ambassador -- the failure to stop Putin here will mean that the order and security of international relations will be overturned, just as Allied indecision in the mid-30s encouraged further depredations and further weakening of the LoN, which then eventually led to WWII.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 27, 2022)

Corruption hinders Russia's attempts to replace vehicles - Ukraine


Mothballed Russian military equipment is being taken out of long-term storage, but stolen and missing parts are preventing the replenishment of vehicles and the replacing losses.




www.jpost.com




Apparent corruption at its finest.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 27, 2022)

Didn't see this here yet. The Ukrainian ingenuity is amazing.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelensky said, according to Reuters.
> 
> Zelensky also said that his country was considering using Russian language in Ukraine as part of its talks with Russia, but the president refused to discuss Moscow's other demands.




This is good news and looks to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Russia will be pleased with the neutrality bit, but not with Ukraine remaining under Zelenskiy's government. Putin wants a Russian puppet governor like Yanukovich, but I do hope that doesn't happen.

Russian heavihandedness toward its own media in plain sight here.

Zelenskiy's criticisms of the West's approach to the conflict are understandable to a point. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the best the West/NATO can do it is already doing, short of provoking war with Russia, which for obvious (nuclear) reasons would be a bad thing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This is good news and looks to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Russia will be pleased with the neutrality bit, but not with Ukraine remaining under Zelenskiy's government. Putin wants a Russian puppet governor like Yanukovich, but I do hope that doesn't happen.
> 
> Russian heavihandedness toward its own media in plain sight here.
> 
> Zelenskiy's criticisms of the West's approach to the conflict are understandable to a point. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the best the West/NATO can do it is already doing, short of provoking war with Russia, which for obvious (nuclear) reasons would be a bad thing.



I agree with everything you've written. Zelenskyy is trying to both mollify the Russians into leaving Ukraine alone while preserving his own position and making sure that Ukraine can stay on the road to self-determination via the democratic process. His criticisms of us in the West are very understandable, and he has _got_ to say them if he wants to retain the trust and privilege of giving voice to the Ukrainian people -- because no doubt many Ukrainians are saying this much to themselves already and he'd be dishonest to ignore them.

As for the Russian control of their own media, it bespeaks fear on the part of Putin's government. If their cause was truly righteous, he would not be afraid of facts. Whenever we see media repression on this scale, we may rest assured that we are seeing a government that is terrified of the facts coming out and undermining its legitimacy (as if Putin's gov't has any left, lol).

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## GrauGeist (Mar 27, 2022)

I feel that the media may be held to blame for the MiG-29 deal not going through.
If it had been kept quiet and everything done on the down-low, then the Ukraine just may have gotten them.

But no, the media has to know everything.

This reminds me of a comment made by Saddam Hussein, where he stated that his best intelligence source was CNN...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Didn't see this here yet. The Ukrainian ingenuity is amazing.



I have and it's great!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I feel that the media may be held to blame for the MiG-29 deal not going through.
> If it had been kept quiet and everything done on the down-low, then the Ukraine just may have gotten them.
> 
> But no, the media has to know everything.
> ...



Wasn't it a Polish gov't announcement that broke the news, though? One can hardly blame the media if that was the case, because such a story would be reported at any rate.









Polish offer to donate MiG-29 jets to Ukraine takes US officials by surprise


An offer from Poland to donate MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine took US officials by surprise on Tuesday, raising fears the move could draw NATO allies into more direct conflict with Russia. Vice President…




www.france24.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 27, 2022)

Just leave 'em parked near some tractors with the keys in the ignition.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Wasn't it a Polish gov't announcement that broke the news, though? One can hardly blame the media if that was the case, because such a story would be reported at any rate.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Originally, it was a NATO official (don't recall who).

That right there was enough to start some friction since it was coming from NATO itself, he then quickly retracted his statement.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Originally, it was a NATO official (don't recall who).
> 
> That right there was enough to start some friction since it was coming from NATO itself, he then quickly retracted his statement.



I hadn't read that. If that's true, he certainly should have back-channeled it before blabbing to any media source. As the Poles should have, if they were the ones putting it out.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Whenever we see media repression on this scale, we may rest assured that we are seeing a government that is terrified of the facts coming out and undermining its legitimacy (as if Putin's gov't has any left, lol).



Completely agree, Thump. The misinformation and disinformation campaign being waged is primarily aimed at the Russian people, lest they find out the hollowness behind the reasons for going to war in the first place. Russians regard Ukrainians as their brothers and sisters. Such actions that the military have been conducting should be regarded by ordinary Russians as criminal, but if they don't find out, support for the war remains if they think its justified.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Completely agree, Thump. The misinformation and disinformation campaign being waged is primarily aimed at the Russian people, lest they find out the hollowness behind the reasons for going to war in the first place. Russians regard Ukrainians as their brothers and sisters. Such actions that the military have been conducting should be regarded by ordinary Russians as criminal, but if they don't find out, support for the war remains if they think its justified.



Exactly. The two ethnicities to me remind me of a brother and sister, interminably fighting while still loving each other; and Putin knows he has to control the Russian narrative in order to maintain the ongoing support for the fight in Russia, and keep the love on the back-burner. And, by the way, maintain his own hold on power, which is of course his primary aim.

The sad part is that after this, I doubt that sort of fraternal affection between the two peoples will be very easy to rebuild. I believe he's poisoned the well for a long time to come with this brutal invasion.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 27, 2022)

A marvelous statue that sums up too many people's lives right now...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> A marvelous statue that sums up too many people's lives right now...




Your guts cut out ... incredibly moving.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 27, 2022)

This is a very useful bit of information on the sources of Russian disinformation. We rarely hear from these directly but they are then used for stories in pro-Russian media that we do see. (That's as far as I'll take that line of enquiry to avoid getting deep in the partisan political weeds.)

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 27, 2022)

just trying to lighten the mood up a bit

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## gumbyk (Mar 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Just leave 'em parked near some tractors with the keys in the ignition.


If they were left unattended, fully refuelled, with ground power karts handy, then it gives Poland plausable deniability. And of course the US would be obliged to replace stolen goods for a NATO member...

More plausible than putins claims of only targeting military targets.

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## special ed (Mar 27, 2022)

Last week a retired General on one of the channels was discussing the "MiGs" and pointed out that these aircraft were not in good condition. He said they had been East German and after unification the Luftwaffe decided they couldn't keep them because the parts had to come from Russia and the Russian government was delaying orders. The General said they were sold to Poland for Two Euros each as is. His solution was they should have been reduced to assemblies and transported into Ukraine to use for repairs to Ukrainian MiGs. I have not heard any other source comment about using them as parts. Have any members info about this?

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## nuuumannn (Mar 27, 2022)

This made me laugh...

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## nuuumannn (Mar 27, 2022)

This from the touchy feely side of town... Rather beautiful.









Artist George Butler: ‘I draw what happens at the fringes of atrocity’


As millions fled the conflict in Ukraine, the reportage illustrator felt compelled to travel there. He explains why he wants to depict the human cost of war




www.theguardian.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> Last week a retired General on one of the channels was discussing the "MiGs" and pointed out that these aircraft were not in good condition. He said they had been East German and after unification the Luftwaffe decided they couldn't keep them because the parts had to come from Russia and the Russian government was delaying orders. The General said they were sold to Poland for Two Euros each as is. His solution was they should have been reduced to assemblies and transported into Ukraine to use for repairs to Ukrainian MiGs. I have not heard any other source comment about using them as parts. Have any members info about this?



I think I saw the same comment, yeah. It seems much more practical than other suggestions, to me.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 27, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This made me laugh...




Who doesn't hate that Captcha test? Let's see a show of hands.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hadn't read that. If that's true, he certainly should have back-channeled it before blabbing to any media source. As the Poles should have, if they were the ones putting it out.


His comment was back late in February, I had posted it and then several other posts popped up by others shortly after, about Poland will provide, Poland won't provide and so on.

I beleive it all started about 30-40 pages into this thread.
If I have time tomorrow, I'll look for it.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 28, 2022)

special ed said:


> Last week a retired General on one of the channels was discussing the "MiGs" and pointed out that these aircraft were not in good condition. He said they had been East German and after unification the Luftwaffe decided they couldn't keep them because the parts had to come from Russia and the Russian government was delaying orders. The General said they were sold to Poland for Two Euros each as is. His solution was they should have been reduced to assemblies and transported into Ukraine to use for repairs to Ukrainian MiGs. I have not heard any other source comment about using them as parts. Have any members info about this?


I think that fit's the truth, keeping in mind that these MiG's had been delivered to the former East-German Air-force between 1988-1989, as such now being almost 35 years old with
about 26 having seen service (and as such maintained) between 1990-2000 with the reunified German Luftwaffe. In 2004 the remaining 22 were sold (more or less for free - as Germany's
NATO contribution towards Poland).

AFAIK only 10-12 were used by the Polish Air-force at 22nd air base in Malbork , and. 2-3 of the trainer-version MiG-29UB at 23rd air base in Minsk Mazowiecki.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> His comment was back late in February, I had posted it and then several other posts popped up by others shortly after, about Poland will provide, Poland won't provide and so on.
> 
> I beleive it all started about 30-40 pages into this thread.
> If I have time tomorrow, I'll look for it.



No need, I take your word.

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## Glider (Mar 28, 2022)

In the Daily Telegraph today there is a story of the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division which is recognised as being a first line unit being destroyed in battle in the town of Trostyanets.

There are a couple of interesting points about this.

1) The first is that this is one of the elite units and would have been well equipped with the best equipment available
2) Second, the battle took place only 15 miles from the Russian Border so its fair to assume that the lack of supplies wouldn't have been as bad as those units deep in the Ukraine
3) Being so close to the border you would have expected air support and reinforcements to be available
4) Russia captured the town on the 1st March and would have had plenty of time to prepare the town for defence
5) The division broke, leaving a lot of equipment, stores and supplies behind including a fully equipped and operation field kitchen

Put this lot together and the picture isn't good for Putin. If a unit like this can suffer this kind of reverse think what would happen to a replacement unit thrown together at short notice

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## GrauGeist (Mar 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No need, I take your word.


Well, it was bugging me because I couldn't recall who it was that made the statement.
So after some digging, turns out it was an official with the EU (not NATO as I thought).

It was posted on 27 February (post #480):






i24NEWS







www.i24news.tv

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## GrauGeist (Mar 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> In the Daily Telegraph today there is a story of the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division which is recognised as being a first line unit being destroyed in battle in the town of Trostyanets.
> 
> There are a couple of interesting points about this.
> 
> ...


So now this begs the question:
How well prepared are Putler's nuclear forces?

It's clear that post-Soviet Russia's forces (land/sea/air) have suffered due to lack of funding, corruption, inept training and have proven to fall far short of his boasts and claims.

His saber-rattling with nukes (just as he did with his military) may ultimately be his last ditch effort since nothing else is working in his favor, yes, but has the system and equipment been kept free of corruption and slip-shod maintenance?
What degree of training has the the personnel received?
The list of questions goes on, but the bottom line is, do those things even work?

I don't want to find out if they do, of course. However, seeing the piss-poor performance of the mighty Russian military so far, this has crossed my mind.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 28, 2022)

He, he, he...

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## JDCAVE (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think that fit's the truth, keeping in mind that these MiG's had been delivered to the former East-German Air-force between 1988-1989, as such now being almost 35 years old with
> about 26 having seen service (and as such maintained) between 1990-2000 with the reunified German Luftwaffe. In 2004 the remaining 22 were sold (more or less for free - as Germany's
> NATO contribution towards Poland).
> 
> ...


Kinda reminds me of the RCAF's CF-18's

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think that fit's the truth, keeping in mind that these MiG's had been delivered to the former East-German Air-force between 1988-1989, as such now being almost 35 years old with
> about 26 having seen service (and as such maintained) between 1990-2000 with the reunified German Luftwaffe. In 2004 the remaining 22 were sold (more or less for free - as Germany's
> NATO contribution towards Poland).
> 
> ...


Our member J_P_C could probably expand on this.

Regardless of their condition, shouldn't it be up to the Ukrainians to determine whether these aircraft can be brought back into service or cannibalized instead of some politician? I heard Jen Psaki talk about them the other day and she used the term "Fully Mission Capable" like she was trying to pronounce something in Chinese!

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## tomo pauk (Mar 28, 2022)

Bacon is also for the last sentence

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## Dimlee (Mar 28, 2022)

Interesting interview. 








Ukraine’s Intel Chief: We Have Sources in the Kremlin, but We Need Jets


Ukraine intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov says he has sources inside Putin’s Kremlin, but his nation’s air force needs fighter jets.




coffeeordie.com

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 28, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Kinda reminds me of the RCAF's CF-18's


Hi JDCAVE,
Sorry, I don't quite get your meaning.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## wlewisiii (Mar 28, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Interesting interview.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What is hilarious is knowing that it doesn't matter if they do or not. They're in a spot where the Russian's will be eating themselves in hate and fear over who is and who isn't a spy  Putler will kill his best out of fear of them. 

No matter what happens in the long term, Ukraine has already won.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2022)

Billionaire Abramovich, Ukrainian peace negotiators hit by suspected poisoning -reports


Abramovich, who accepted a Ukrainian request to help negotiate an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team, were affected, the WSJ report said. Ukrainian officials poured cold water on the report.




www.yahoo.com


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## GTX (Mar 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This is a very useful bit of information on the sources of Russian disinformation. We rarely hear from these directly but they are then used for stories in pro-Russian media that we do see. (That's as far as I'll take that line of enquiry to avoid getting deep in the partisan political weeds.)



Need to add FoxNews and Comrade Carlson in there...

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## wlewisiii (Mar 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Need to add FoxNews and Comrade Carlson in there...


Please see the last wee bit of my comment

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## GTX (Mar 28, 2022)

Russia's plans A, B and C have failed. The next stage has three key elements


A top Russian general has delivered his first update on the war in Ukraine. But as Obi-Wan Kenobi once explained, analysis only comes from a certain point of view. Here are some others.




www.abc.net.au

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 28, 2022)

Russia Spent Half Billion in Missile Attacks Day Biden Spoke


Russia fired at least 70 missiles on targets across Ukraine on Saturday, the most it has shot since invading the country last month, The Insider has reported.




www.newsmax.com





"Despite the massive Russian attack, Ukraine's air defense also set a record for this war in the number of missiles it shot down in one day, as only eight of the 70 missiles fired by Russia engaged their targets, according to The Insider."

Read more: Russia Spent Half Billion in Missile Attacks Day Biden Spoke | Newsmax.com

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## J_P_C (Mar 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Our member J_P_C could probably expand on this.
> 
> Regardless of their condition, shouldn't it be up to the Ukrainians to determine whether these aircraft can be brought back into service or cannibalized of some politician? I heard Jen Psaki talk about them the other day and she used the term "Fully Mission Capable" like she was trying to pronounce something in Chinese!


Mig-29 story in PAF is difficult to explain simple way. First - technical side - instead of seeing this as one type we should rather think about this as a separate 2-3 subvariants with different modification level. As any other soviet origin military equipment this airplane tybe have been and still is source of headache for PAF because of lack or very limited support from manufacturer side. Enough to mention that all mdifications made during 35 years of service have been done without OKB MIG support, all spares during last more than 15 years have been sourced indirectly - most of it from Belarus or ... Ukraine. I think this comments indirectly answering on your question related to combat readiness of this equipment. Note : technical condition is not equal to combat readiness - it is just one of it's numerous factors.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Mig-29 story in PAF is difficult to explain simple way. First - technical side - instead of seeing this as one type we should rather think about this as a separate 2-3 subvariants with different modification level. As any other soviet origin military equipment this airplane tybe have been and still is source of headache for PAF because of lack or very limited support from manufacturer side. Enough to mention that all mdifications made during 35 years of service have been done without OKB MIG support, all spares during last more than 15 years have been sourced indirectly - most of it from Belarus or ... Ukraine. I think this comments indirectly answering on your question related to combat readiness of this equipment. Note : technical condition is not equal to combat readiness - it is just one of it's numerous factors.


Thank you for this detained insight and I'm not surprised by your comments. Again, if this equipment was made available barring any agreements within NATO or Russia, shouldn't end user (Ukraine) make the final decision if it's worth their time and effort to pursue this equipment?

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## gumbyk (Mar 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> all spares during last more than 15 years have been sourced indirectly - most of it from Belarus or ... Ukraine.


So, from that I take it that Ukraine has (or had) plenty of spares, so they need serviceable aircraft?


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## AAIR (Mar 28, 2022)

Lurker here, but have really found everyone's insight very informative. I have not seen this article posted yet, and found it very interesting, thought others here would too:
The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv

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## Glider (Mar 28, 2022)

The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Mig-29 story in PAF is difficult to explain simple way. First - technical side - instead of seeing this as one type we should rather think about this as a separate 2-3 subvariants with different modification level. As any other soviet origin military equipment this airplane tybe have been and still is source of headache for PAF because of lack or very limited support from manufacturer side. Enough to mention that all mdifications made during 35 years of service have been done without OKB MIG support, all spares during last more than 15 years have been sourced indirectly - most of it from Belarus or ... Ukraine. I think this comments indirectly answering on your question related to combat readiness of this equipment. Note : technical condition is not equal to combat readiness - it is just one of it's numerous factors.


Hi J_P_C,

one could also say - and I think there is nothing wrong by saying this; Poland is aware that due to being cut of from spare supplies via Belarus and the Ukraine that almost 40% of
it's interceptor/strike force (30 MiG 29's incl. 9 ex Luftwaffe) might very soon be rendered useless. (Not taking into account the SU 22's) Therefore offer them to the Ukraine/USA in exchange for e.g. 20 F-16. That is actually what this deal is really about. 
If the Ukrainian Air-force (pilots) are even able to operate these (modified) MiG 29's and how many would be another topic or issue.
That Poland in view of the present situation isn't just standing by and simply watching the demise of a large portions of it's Air-force is understandable.

In regards to technical changes, compatibility to Ukraine's MiG 29 and it's pilots see:








The modernized Mig-29 Fulcrums of 23 BLT Polish Air Force - Aviation Report - ENG


Sily Powietrzne (Polish Air Force) received its first MiG 29 in 1989, equipping the 1 ELT (Eskadra Lotnictwa Taktycznego) based in Minsk Mazowiecki, 45Km far from Warszawa. Between 1995-96 other 10 MiG 29 arrived from the Czech Republic, and the last batch in 2004 when Germany delivered 22 MiG...



en.aviation-report.com





Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 28, 2022)

Ukraine is on the offensive on many fronts. It’s essential that they push the Russians as far back as possible before a ceasefire is called and negotiations begin. The Russians will demand at the very best that they hold the lands they now occupy. What does Ukraine need to accomplish the biggest land grab in the shortest time? Is more MANPATS, MANPADS, secure coms, guns and bullets enough? What does Ukraine need to regain as much ground it can before a ceasefire? My guess is Ukraine has at best two weeks before some level of ceasefire is called.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Poland is aware that due to being cut of from spare supplies via Belarus and the Ukraine that almost 40% of it's interceptor/strike force (30 MiG 29's incl. 9 ex Luftwaffe) might very soon be rendered useless.


I imagine Ukraine would rather have other aircraft than these old MiGs. I expect they’d acclimatize to light attack aircraft like the Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jet easily enough. They used to operate the Aero L-39 Albatros, are there any still in service? It’s a question of what’s available in Europe’s second line stocks.


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## gumbyk (Mar 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine Ukraine would rather have other aircraft than these old MiGs. I expect they’d acclimatize to light attack aircraft like the Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jet easily enough. They used to operate the Aero L-39 Albatros, are there any still in service? It’s a question of what’s available in Europe’s second line stocks.


Combat isn't the best time to be learning a new aircraft.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine Ukraine would rather have other aircraft than these old MiGs. I expect they’d acclimatize to light attack aircraft like the Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jet easily enough. They used to operate the Aero L-39 Albatros, are there any still in service? It’s a question of what’s available in Europe’s second line stocks.


I disagree - first, the UAF would probably welcome these aircraft especially if they are airworthy. It would be easier for Ukraine pilots to jump into these aircraft rather than going into another system, which can take weeks, it not months to transition into, time is something the UAF doesn't have.

The L39 can be used if the trainer is already militarized. The ZA version is a dedicated attack version, heavier and more robust from the trainer version - that would fit perfect into the situation as many if not all UAF currently flying fighters had at one time flown the L39.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 28, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Combat isn't the best time to be learning a new aircraft.


No. But after the war is decided isn’t either. This narrative that Ukraine wanted only ex-Russian combat aircraft may need verification. Did anyone offer them any non-Russian aircraft that they’ve refused due to unfamiliarity? I don’t know how widely trained the UAF pilots and ground crews are - some may well have gained experience on Western types over the decades since Ukrainian independence.

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## Glider (Mar 28, 2022)

The L39 is clearly the best option but I would have thought that any experienced pilot would have little difficulty transitioning to a Hawk, Alpha Jet or similar advanced trainer, all of which are capable GA aircraft. The problem would be in the maintenance, availability of spares and other equipment needed to keep them flying. 

The days of kicking the tyres, lighting the fire, and thundering into the sunset are long gone

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> The L39 is clearly the best option but I would have thought that any experienced pilot would have little difficulty transitioning to a Hawk, Alpha Jet or similar advanced trainer, all of which are capable GA aircraft. *The problem would be in the maintenance, availability of spares and other equipment needed to keep them flying.*
> 
> The days of kicking the tyres, lighting the fire, and thundering into the sunset are long gone


Bingo! You can give the UAF F-16s but without the logistics support structure, they would become bricks within their first few hours of operation.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 28, 2022)

At the end of the day, a good fleet of armed UAVs will do far more for the Ukrainians than another dozen or two aircraft.
Hopefully they will find a way to shoehorn the Stugnas on their Bayraktars, or what have you, before situation allows for the more fancier solutions. 
The AT grenades dropped from the commercial quadricopters are good in want of the bespoke systems.

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## Glider (Mar 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Bingo! You can give the UAF F-16s but without the logistics support structure, they would become bricks within their first few hours of operation.


For this reason if I had any influence over the Finish Airforce I would be asking if there were any F18 and Hawks in their originating countries that could be brought up to current spec ( old aircraft are almost always missing one up date or another). So if push comes to shove I could quickly increase the size of my airforce.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine is on the offensive on many fronts. It’s essential that they push the Russians as far back as possible before a ceasefire is called and negotiations begin. The Russians will demand at the very best that they hold the lands they now occupy. What does Ukraine need to accomplish the biggest land grab in the shortest time? Is more MANPATS, MANPADS, secure coms, guns and bullets enough? What does Ukraine need to regain as much ground it can before a ceasefire? My guess is Ukraine has at best two weeks before some level of ceasefire is called.


Thinking on this, it‘s best to cut off Crimea from Donbas.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Russia Spent Half Billion in Missile Attacks Day Biden Spoke
> 
> 
> Russia fired at least 70 missiles on targets across Ukraine on Saturday, the most it has shot since invading the country last month, The Insider has reported.
> ...


Still, that's 8 too many.


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## gumbyk (Mar 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No. But after the war is decided isn’t either. This narrative that Ukraine wanted only ex-Russian combat aircraft may need verification. Did anyone offer them any non-Russian aircraft that they’ve refused due to unfamiliarity? I don’t know how widely trained the UAF pilots and ground crews are - some may well have gained experience on Western types over the decades since Ukrainian independence.


Western types will be worse than nothing.
Integrating a new aircraft type reduces productivity in _any_ operation, and needs to be carefully managed. Its not as simple as learning how to fly a new aircraft type.

Western aircraft have a different design and maintenance philosophy, which will make the logistics, support and training transition an order of magnitude more difficult than integrating a type that is currently operated.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Who doesn't hate that Captcha test? Let's see a show of hands.



"Vlad? Vasiliy? Dmitriy? Oleg? You all hate it too, no? All of the tank regiment I see..."

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 28, 2022)

The Russians saying now that all those objectives they had for the first few days of the "Military Exercise" are NOT REALLY what they wanted. Like Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do That"!

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> That is actually what this deal is really about.



One thing's for sure, this war is going to do great for Western combat aircraft manufacturers. Aircraft like the Gripen and Viper are going to see increased sales, I reckon, possibly even Rafale, Eurofighter and F-35 - Germany has recently ordered the latter and has an EW variant of the Typhoon on the way to replace its Tornadoes following its massive defence expenditure increase...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Lurker here, but have really found everyone's insight very informative. I have not seen this article posted yet, and found it very interesting, thought others here would too:
> The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv


Good stuff and welcome to the Forum. 
Rob

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> "I meant to do That"!



Yeah, but it's not us the Russians are trying to convince, it's the Russian public at home. As long as the war looks to be justified and the good news keeps rolling in, the blockades, social deprivations and high cost of living appear to be tolerable. It's Nazi Germany after 1942...

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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?


We should check with the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture.

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## FLYBOYJ (Mar 28, 2022)

_The T-14 may not be in Ukraine, simply because Moscow doesn't have enough to actually send. As previously reported, Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod first said the T-14 would be delivered in 2018. Then the distribution of the first nine tanks would come in 2019. After this date came and went, the leadership said 20 would be tested and 80 would be ready by the end of 2021._









We Might Know Why Russia's New Armata Tank Is Missing from Ukraine


The T-14 Armata tank may not be in Ukraine, simply because Moscow doesn't have enough to actually send into battle.




www.19fortyfive.com

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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> One thing's for sure, this war is going to do great for Western combat aircraft manufacturers. Aircraft like the Gripen and Viper are going to see increased sales, I reckon, possibly even Rafale, Eurofighter and F-35 - Germany has recently ordered the latter and has an EW variant of the Typhoon on the way to replace its Tornadoes following its massive defence expenditure increase...


After watching a few Mentour Pilot videos, there's going to be a lot of worthless Boeing and Airbus products being removed from inventory. Maybe there were too many airliners before but now? Boeing and Airbus stock are looking good too.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

Russian nuclear capability is always going to be its silver bullet and Putin wields it like it is his best leverage, which in fact it is. The state of the Russian nuclear forces cannot be verified, but the Strategic Rocket Forces, a separate branch of the Russian armed forces since the Soviet Union days is a multi-faceted arm that comprises more than just ICBMs in silos beyond the Caucasus. Non-strategic weapons on TELS comprise some of the divisions of the RSM, which are quite possibly being deployed near the border with Ukraine as we speak. These could be deadly and aside from what could be predicted as decay in quality of the personnel, equipment and training standards of the home based fixed units, it's fair to say these would be trained to a high state of readiness given their nature. Incidentally, the RSM's motto, "After Us, Silence" is rather chilling.

Putin has a wide array of nuclear devices to choose from. Once he made his "high alert" speech, nuclear capable naval units put to sea in the Baltic and RSM forces were put on a high state of readiness, which is worrying. Presumably air launched cruise missile units of Frontal Aviation have also ben put on a alert too, although thus far we have not seen use of the VVS' big bomber units operating the fearsome Tu-22M-3, which saw combat over Syria and Chechnya.

Western analysts argue that the "high alert" speech and the most recent "nuclear war" statement following NATO's announcement of the placing of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine could well be what's known as "nuclear messaging", stating an intent, but not with the aim of actually using deployed nuclear weapons, to send a message rather than as a prelude to action. At least, that's what we are wanting to believe, but Putin is, above all, unpredictable and will use whatever tool he has in his diplomatic tool kit to gain some kind of leverage.

Nevertheless, as mentioned before, it's worth keeping in mind that all of this is Putin signalling to his people that he is a strong man, not specifically to the rest of us, although it doesn't do his image any harm knowing the rest of the world is unnerved by him. This public perception has always been the case and positive image promotion is paramount to the post-Soviet Russian government. When Putin's popularity waned following the Kursk disaster, a charm offensive was launched and images of him looking dapper atop horses without his shirt on and doing judo - as the head of the World judo body, no less, appeared in greater number.

I remember I was in Russia shortly after the Kursk was lost and I spoke casually to a few people about how they felt about Putin and results were varied, most initially thought he was a fresh change from the post USSR chaos of Yeltsin, but many lost faith following his inaction over the Kursk loss. That disaster really struck home in Russia and people feared he would become just like the former Soviet leaders they despised from the past. I went to the naval museum in St Petersburg and there was a model of the Kursk in the foyer with a big wreath and flowers scattered around it. Very poignant.

One thing is for sure, Putin is nothing if not unpredictable, but the cracks are showing now the pressure is mounting. People back in Russia are beginning to see the truth, but a lot of work has been done to cultivate a slanted image of this particular conflict...

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Boeing and Airbus stock are looking good too.



At this point Boeing and Airbus have nothing to fear, they are both big companies with lots of clout. The 737 Max crisis shook Boeing and the public's perception of the firm to its core, but it's still there getting orders and the Max is selling despite its reputation. Airbus is facing tribulations with airlines refusing to accept aircraft they have ordered because of reduced requirement following covid, not to mention the peeling skin legal issue with Qatar, but again, recent airshow orders in Singapore show that both firms are doing okay despite current global conditions. 

A little controversy every now and then is good for the airline industry. It keeps airlines and manufacturers honest. Big business is a fickle mistress and airlines in particular need to become more resilient to industry shocks to remain competitive. This crisis stuff is good news for the consumer, despite falling sales and a global pandemic, as, once the dust settles, the industry will be forced to rethink its approach and try a different way of doing things. 

Obviously, the rising fuel cost because of war in Ukraine will stifle people's immediate plans to travel as the cost of air fares is currently on the up because of the cost increases in fuel. Add to that the fact that airlines can now no longer fly through Russian airspace means that round the world journeys now take much longer because they have been re-routed through less turbulent airspace and so now is not the best time to travel overseas.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> "Vlad? Vasiliy? Dmitriy? Oleg? You all hate it too, no? All of the tank regiment I see..."



"What roadsigns, dammit? The Ukrainians have taken them all down!"

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## wlewisiii (Mar 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?


Too expensive to produce and so they're stuck using the old tanks. Plus the sanctions have shut down that plant O_O 

As a result &according to Wiki (granted but it's what we have):
"In August 2021, Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko said that the Russian Armed Forces would receive 20 T-14 Armata tanks by the end of 2021.[35]​ On August 23, a Rostec official said that the company had shipped an unspecified number of T-14 tanks in an "experimental batch" to Russian Armed Forces.[36]​ In November 2021, state trials were in progress and expected to be completed in 2022, and a "pilot batch" of twenty tanks was yet to be delivered to the armed forces.[37]​[38]"​

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> The Russians saying now that all those objectives they had for the first few days of the "Military Exercise" are NOT REALLY what they wanted. Like Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do That"!



It makes sense. They've already worked Herman's "I know you are, but what am I?" to death and back.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> The one Russian tank which I did expect to see in action albeit in small numbers is the T14 which is supposed to be their new front line tank. Has anyone else seen any report of it being used?



I haven't. My son, who follows Russian armor development fairly closely, tells me they only have about 20 of them.


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## JDCAVE (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Hi JDCAVE,
> Sorry, I don't quite get your meaning.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


That the aircraft are circa 1980’s-1990’s. What isn’t, was purchased from Australia, although that may be incorrect and I stand to be corrected.






ARCHIVED - CF-18 Hornet Estimated Life Expectancy - Canada.ca


This report is about the estimated life expectancy of the CF 18 Hornet.




www.canada.ca





Jim

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine is on the offensive on many fronts. It’s essential that they push the Russians as far back as possible before a ceasefire is called and negotiations begin. The Russians will demand at the very best that they hold the lands they now occupy. What does Ukraine need to accomplish the biggest land grab in the shortest time? Is more MANPATS, MANPADS, secure coms, guns and bullets enough? What does Ukraine need to regain as much ground it can before a ceasefire? My guess is Ukraine has at best two weeks before some level of ceasefire is called.



I'd add to that list attack drones, heavy-duty trucks, and fuel to provide for mobility, at the least.


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## JDCAVE (Mar 28, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> That the aircraft are circa 1980’s-1990’s. What isn’t, was purchased fro Australia, although that may be incorrect and I stand to be corrected.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hmmm! This is a laugh! They’ve been on this Merry-go-Round for 12 years now.









Canada circles back to Lockheed for F-35s


The government plans to spend up to C$19B to buy warplanes to upgrade the Royal Canadian Air Force.




www.politico.com





wonder what Jagmeet thinks of this!

Jim

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## J_P_C (Mar 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Hi J_P_C,
> 
> one could also say - and I think there is nothing wrong by saying this; Poland is aware that due to being cut of from spare supplies via Belarus and the Ukraine that almost 40% of
> it's interceptor/strike force (30 MiG 29's incl. 9 ex Luftwaffe) might very soon be rendered useless. (Not taking into account the SU 22's) Therefore offer them to the Ukraine/USA in exchange for e.g. 20 F-16. That is actually what this deal is really about.
> ...


sorry to say so but article you have to bring up is filled with different quality truths and semi-truths and mismatched. The equipment standard described in this article is related to around 10 out of 30 remaining in service PAF's MIGs, another 10 have bee pretty much semi- modernized and last 10 is barely different from 9.12 batch standard. Simply founds have been haltd within middle of modification work. more important factor is that life extension or rather "on condition" maitenance philosophy havent been introduced and unified there some indications of extensive airframe fatigue in within critical regions. for the question if PAFs Migs are identhical with this one by Ukraine - no they are different but sure easier to handle than F16 or any other equipment which is totally unrealistic in my opinion. For the question if Poland should transfer Migs to ukraine my answer is of course we should and im really obsed about way how it was screwed by politicians - all interested parties - Ukrainians- because they make this option public, Polish I because they have tried use Americans as a smoke screen, and Americans because of lacke coordination between DoD and as wel because they have tried to make all this risking only with their allies accepting minimal/none risk.

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## Jabberwocky (Mar 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?



Nope. Big quadjets are dead. ETOPS and economics has seen to that. 
There's also still an oversupply of widebodies, as long haul international travel is still ~40% below pre-COVID levels.

Airbus is turning the A380 FAL into a production line for more A321s and the last 747 is due for delivery in October this year. Boeing is being tight-lipped about what it's going to do with the 747 FAL at Everett, but rumour is that it's going to take on some 777X work and maybe freighter conversions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> At this point Boeing and Airbus have nothing to fear, they are both big companies with lots of clout. The 737 Max crisis shook Boeing and the public's perception of the firm to its core, but it's still there getting orders and the Max is selling despite its reputation. Airbus is facing tribulations with airlines refusing to accept aircraft they have ordered because of reduced requirement following covid, not to mention the peeling skin legal issue with Qatar, but again, recent airshow orders in Singapore show that both firms are doing okay despite current global conditions.
> 
> A little controversy every now and then is good for the airline industry. It keeps airlines and manufacturers honest. Big business is a fickle mistress and airlines in particular need to become more resilient to industry shocks to remain competitive. This crisis stuff is good news for the consumer, despite falling sales and a global pandemic, as, once the dust settles, the industry will be forced to rethink its approach and try a different way of doing things.
> 
> Obviously, the rising fuel cost because of war in Ukraine will stifle people's immediate plans to travel as the cost of air fares is currently on the up because of the cost increases in fuel. Add to that the fact that airlines can now no longer fly through Russian airspace means that round the world journeys now take much longer because they have been re-routed through less turbulent airspace and so now is not the best time to travel overseas.



The Max were unnecessary and tragic, however, Boeing has learned and is making the changes it needs to make. The company will become stronger and will recover from it. My heart still goes out to those affected and the victims.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback? The A380 is no longer in production and the 747 line is finishing up, right?



No.

The industry is moving to smaller more efficient two engine aircraft such as the 787 and A350.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 28, 2022)

I have an acquaintence who, in another life, was a US Army sniper and a very thoughtful individual. He had, what I though, was a very interesting comment on Biden's "impromptu" remarks in Poland: 


> Don't imagine for a second that wasn't planned. The exact wording was worked out and approved. It was an impromptu utterance that couldn't be in the official speech but could express the real desire of the United States while allowing the Secretary of State to walk it back.
> 
> My best clue for this? Along with knowing that plenty of "offhand remarks" by world leaders were preplanned, the President has a stutter. When he speaks off the cuff, you can notice a slower rhythm to his speech as he works around the impediment. His speech in Poland had no such slowing in the allegedly ad-ilibed part.
> 
> Joe Biden expressed US policy loud and clear, and you better believe Russia heard it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I have an acquaintence who, in another life, was a US Army sniper and a very thoughtful individual. He had, what I though, was a very interesting comment on Biden's "impromptu" remarks in Poland:



Whether Biden's statement was impromptu or planned, I certainly agree with it. Putin has to go.

That is, of course, up to the Russian people themselves. But it would be a benefit to everyone.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Max were unnecessary and tragic, however, Boeing has learned and is making the changes it needs to make. The company will become stronger and will recover from it. My heart still goes out to those affected and the victims.



Indeed so, but it was a terrible miscalculation by the company and a clear example of corporate corruption if ever there was one. It is interesting to note that before Airbus announced the A320 NEO, Boeing's investigation into a 737 replacement was aiming at an entirely new airframe/engine combo. The CEO even went on record stating that the company wasn't going to base their next gen single-aisle airliner on the 737.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Indeed so, but it was a terrible miscalculation by the company and a clear example of corporate corruption if ever there was one. It is interesting to note that before Airbus announced the A320 NEO, Boeing's investigation into a 737 replacement was aiming at an entirely new airframe/engine combo. The CEO even went on record stating that the company wasn't going to base their next gen single-aisle airliner on the 737.



Agreed


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## wlewisiii (Mar 28, 2022)

Entertaining article from The Guardian:

The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for KyivSpecial IT force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes is vital part of Ukraine's defence, but forced to crowdfund for supplies


> Ukrainian drone brigade claims to have stopped 40-mile column of Russian tanks – video
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could this mean the larger commercial jets might make a comeback?



Bigger capacity jets are still in widespread use and are under development, the 777X has a similar pax capacity to the 747-400, but these days, "two engines good, four engines bad" is the mantra. Mind you, despite production of he A380 ending, there are still a number of these aircraft operating around the world - Air China, Emirates, Korean and others still operate A380s and they'll be around for awhile before they get replaced entirely by the more efficient twins. All the airlines that currently operate the big four engined beasties all operate smaller capacity but more efficient twins.

These days however, the A350 and Dreamliner lead widebody sales, but large capacity aircraft still have a place as airlines contemplate what to do about putting in place COVID restrictions - Japan Airlines is one of a number of airlines that want to reduce total pax capacity to restrict the spread of COVID on its aircraft.

Another advantage to the big Bus in particular is space for a four class cabin, First, Business, Premium and Economy. Full Service Carriers trade on differentiation strategies to maintain a competitive advantage. Singapore Airlines was the A380's first customer and Emirates the second, both offering First Class suites as a point of difference to their competitors, although Etihad has its The Residence First Class suites aboard its A380s. Etihad Dreamliners have three class only, with Business up front.

It's worth noting that Premium and Business is where airlines make their money long haul, not Economy, so the maintenance of high end luxury in that middle bracket is where the majority of airlines sit. Offering First Class, despite the high cost for passengers is quite expensive for the airlines and only the biggest really can afford to offer a consistent true First Class product. It's not just a seat and bed in your own cabin with freshly prepared food and specialty beverages, but airport lounges, exclusive check-in facilities and fast-track boarding privileges, as well as chauffer driven door-to-door service, for example. All this costs money and the airfare costs barely cut it, so true First Class is very costly for airlines and can really only be implemented in aircraft like the A380 and at a stretch the B777 to make money.

The Big Boys will be around for a little while yet.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 28, 2022)

Hate to be a party-pooper but the airliner discussion has little to do with Vlad's forces and Vlad's men trying to put Humpty together again.

Just sayin'....

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## nuuumannn (Mar 28, 2022)

True, Mark, you're right, but it sits within the subject as the war has most definitely affected the airline industry and airlines are scrambling to deal with increased fuel costs and flight times because they are being routed outside Russian airspace. It has relevance. Having to spend more time aboard aircraft means that paying extra for better in-flight service because people are in the air for longer becomes a real choice...

Besides, gotta put this degree to _some _use...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Bigger capacity jets are still in widespread use and are under development, the 777X has a similar pax capacity to the 747-400, but these days, "two engines good, four engines bad" is the mantra. Mind you, despite production of he A380 ending, there are still a number of these aircraft operating around the world - Air China, Emirates, Korean and others still operate A380s and they'll be around for awhile before they get replaced entirely by the more efficient twins. All the airlines that currently operate the big four engined beasties all operate smaller capacity but more efficient twins.
> 
> These days however, the A350 and Dreamliner lead widebody sales, but large capacity aircraft still have a place as airlines contemplate what to do about putting in place COVID restrictions - Japan Airlines is one of a number of airlines that want to reduce total pax capacity to restrict the spread of COVID on its aircraft.
> 
> ...



We’ve actually converted some of our production line downstairs for the 777X flight control surfaces.


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## fubar57 (Mar 28, 2022)

".....damaged tank....."

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## buffnut453 (Mar 28, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> True, Mark, you're right, but it sits within the subject as the war has most definitely affected the airline industry and airlines are scrambling to deal with increased fuel costs and flight times because they are being routed outside Russian airspace. It has relevance. Having to spend more time aboard aircraft means that paying extra for better in-flight service because people are in the air for longer becomes a real choice...
> 
> Besides, gotta put this degree to _some _use...



In fairness, there hasn't been much in the way of "new" news about the conflict. The Russian consolidation is essentially tacit admission that their forces failed to achieve the desired objectives. However, it simply means the situation in eastern Ukraine and the siege of Mariupol will simply get worse. Ukraine really can't afford to lose Mariupol but, equally, there's no way to sustain a resistance when the place is entirely surrounded. I fear there will be some carving up of Ukraine, with Kyiv losing most of its access to the Black Sea and the Donbas region.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 28, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> ".....damaged tank....."
> 
> View attachment 662964​



And the T-34 on the plinth is saying "These young whippersnappers simply don't have what it takes" or something very similar in Russian tankish.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 28, 2022)

Oh. I thought the article was about the T-34 behind the garden sculpture.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Oh. I thought the article was about the T-34 behind the garden sculpture.


Yes they really should do some reno work on that T-34 and drag that modern art junk out of the way. A tractor would probably manage the job.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Yes they really should do some reno work on that T-34 and drag that modern art junk out of the way. A tractor would probably manage the job.



Or a backhoe. They save the tractors for tanks that are still worth something.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Or a backhoe. They save the tractors for tanks that are still worth something.


Yes you're right. I forgot about the tax break.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

From the looks of that ploshtad, there was a hell of a fight.

The T-34 seems to have taken a beating, too - the track has been knocked out on it's right side and it wasn't even in the fight.

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## WARSPITER (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So now this begs the question:
> How well prepared are Putler's nuclear forces?
> 
> It's clear that post-Soviet Russia's forces (land/sea/air) have suffered due to lack of funding, corruption, inept training and have proven to fall far short of his boasts and claims.
> ...


Just looking through the last few pages (they mount up quickly in this thread) the nuclear question posed here becomes very pertinent.

Given that the conventional long range missiles fired - apparently 70 - only got eight hits? on target how many of those were actually shot down and
how many simply failed to get there.

The supposed preponderance of Russian aircraft hasn't made itself master of the air as such so how good is the overall readiness of the 
Russian Air Force ?

Apart from the inept tactics and what seems to be a lack of planning the question of combat style has been interesting as it seems to be 50's / 60's thinking.
Using mobility and state of the art support weapons isn't there either. Maybe the state of the art weapons were state of the art in 1980 ?

I don't really know any answers to these but the whole thing is like a bizarre attempt at achieving two different aims;

First - walk into Ukraine, take over easily and make NATO tremble in their collective boots.

Second - While everyone is busy trembling move on to Moldova then have convenient separatist uprisings in ???? Romania? Latvia? Lithuania? and so on
until everyone else gives up and the Eastern Bloc breathes again.

I have also been pleasantly surprised at the response, especially in Western Europe. Even Switzerland stepped in and froze Russian bank accounts which
I haven't seen happen before.

The sanctions aren't the usual slap on the wrist type - these are already biting an economy that isn't even ten percent bigger than ours in Australia ( not
that we give a rats kneecap about ours for the next six months because footy season has started here so everything else can get stuffed - priorities).
Russia was in bad enough shape for an attrition based game compared to the rest of Europe, let alone the rest of the world and now they will be 
significantly worse.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Mar 29, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> ".....damaged tank....."
> 
> View attachment 662964​


The T-34 need some work in the right thread! 

At this rate, maybe uncle Vlad forces will need to search in the museums for more T-34 to replace losses.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

One thing that seems to be overlooked, is that the USN has Aegis cruisers stationed in the Med and Baltic region.

*if* a nuclear weapon (tactical or otherwise) were to be launched from Russia (and the satellite systems are really good at pinpointing what/where) there is no doubt that there would be an immediate intercept to counter the launch.

Putler's chest beating and theatrics are being taken seriously and it appears that he hasn't stopped to realize that the west is on a higher state of alert than has been seen since the early 1960's. All he has to do is twitch and he will most certainly reap the whirlwind.


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## WARSPITER (Mar 29, 2022)

Is the Aegis one of the automatic weapons systems ? 

Is there anything to stop ICBM's or is that capable as well ?

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> One thing that seems to be overlooked, is that the USN has Aegis cruisers stationed in the Med and Baltic region.
> 
> *if* a nuclear weapon (tactical or otherwise) were to be launched from Russia (and the satellite systems are really good at pinpointing what/where) there is no doubt that there would be an immediate intercept to counter the launch.
> 
> Putler's chest beating and theatrics are being taken seriously and it appears that he hasn't stopped to realize that the west is on a higher state of alert than has been seen since the early 1960's. All he has to do is twitch and he will most certainly reap the whirlwind.


Firstly I do not believe that Zar Putin will use strategic nuclear weapons. - there is absolutely no need for that.
Secondly any interception or military action by a NATO member within the Ukrainian territory - would be a declaration of war towards Russia - even more the interception/destruction
of an intermediate or strategic nuclear missile taking off from Russia.

If the Zar is going to use nuke weapons - then via long-range artillery 30-50 km or from a short-range Missile launcher within the Ukrainian territory - against which an Aegis
system would be ineffective. the Russians might also simply use an aircraft - but due to certain issues coming with that I also find that highly unlikely.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Is the Aegis one of the automatic weapons systems ?
> 
> Is there anything to stop ICBM's or is that capable as well ?


Guess we would have to see - which wouldn't be a great thought. AFAIK there is presently no 100% ensuring system towards that issue. Not even 50%.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> That the aircraft are circa 1980’s-1990’s. What isn’t, was purchased from Australia, although that may be incorrect and I stand to be corrected.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


okay - got you, yes correct.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

A Ukrainian woman recounts being raped by Russian soldiers who killed her husband: 'Shall we kill her or keep her alive?'


"They both raped me one after the other," the woman told The Times. "They didn't care that my son was in the boiler room crying."




www.yahoo.com


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## vikingBerserker (Mar 29, 2022)

Dammit


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 29, 2022)

_Signs of hope for an end to the Russian-Ukraine war emerged on Tuesday morning when a Russian official said Moscow would "reduce military action" in the north of Ukraine near Kyiv and Chirnihiv, according to multiple reports. 

Negotiations between the two sides are taking place in Turkey a little more than a month into a conflict that has killed thousands on both sides, devastated much of Ukraine and led to stiff sanctions on Moscow from the west.

Talks in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine have wrapped for the day but are expected to continue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the talks had argued that an immediate cease-fire was in each party's interest, according to a report by Bloomberg._









Russia says it will reduce military action near Kyiv amid hopes for peace talks


Signs of hope for an end to the Russian-Ukraine war emerged on Tuesday morning when a Russian official said Moscow would "reduce military action" in the north of Ukraine near Kyiv and Chirnihiv, according to multiple reports.




thehill.com





I guess they're tired of trying to feed the beached whale of the offensive against the capital.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Signs of hope for an end to the Russian-Ukraine war emerged on Tuesday morning when a Russian official said Moscow would "reduce military action" in the north of Ukraine near Kyiv and Chirnihiv, according to multiple reports.
> 
> Negotiations between the two sides are taking place in Turkey a little more than a month into a conflict that has killed thousands on both sides, devastated much of Ukraine and led to stiff sanctions on Moscow from the west.
> 
> ...



Just a little more detail on the source of the info about Russia reducing ops near Kyiv:
_
Russia's deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin says Russia will "radically reduce" military activity outside Kyiv and Chernihiv - that's according to the news agency Tass._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Signs of hope for an end to the Russian-Ukraine war emerged on Tuesday morning when a Russian official said Moscow would "reduce military action" in the north of Ukraine near Kyiv and Chirnihiv, according to multiple reports.
> 
> Negotiations between the two sides are taking place in Turkey a little more than a month into a conflict that has killed thousands on both sides, devastated much of Ukraine and led to stiff sanctions on Moscow from the west.
> 
> ...



Aka, we got our ass handed to us in the north, so we will concentrate elsewhere to save face.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Aka, we got our ass handed to us in the north, so we will concentrate elsewhere to save face.



Right. They seem to have scaled back their war aims from the capture of Ukraine in its entirety, to establishing a formal and independent nation in Eastern Ukraine, _a la_ the division of Germany or Korea after WWII. 

I'm skeptical that will work either, as it relies upon Ukrainian forces not refocusing on the area.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

Here's a translation of the comments made by Russia's Alexander Fomin, who's part of the negotiating team in Istanbul:

_Due to the fact that negotiations over an agreement on Ukraine's neutrality and non-nuclear status and security guarantees (for Ukraine) are moving into a practical stage, and taking into consideration the principles discussed during today's meeting, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has taken the decision to drastically reduce combat operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas in order to boost mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and for the signing of the aforementioned agreement._

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 29, 2022)

I think they are just running out of military vehicles to give to the Ukrainian farmers.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

I'm still laughing at "security guarantees"...

In regards to the USN's Aegis warships (in the Med and Baltic), any missile launch by Russia that is determined to have a trajectory that would enter NATO airspace can be intercepted by them.

The issue of Russia launching a "tactical" nuke at the Ukraine would have to be a case by case situation. There is no doubt that the mobile launchers have been tracked and current positions known.

Also, considering the Ukraine's excellent track record of intercepting and destroying Russian missiles so far, I suspect that Russia would have a hard time "nuking" the Ukraine, since Russia wouls be launching a very limited number (one, two, perhaps?) as opposed to the many conventional missile fired so far - as mentioned upthread, out of 70 conventional missiles fired at the Ukraine, only 8 made it through. That's a hell of a fine job done by Ukrainian forces, to be honest.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm still laughing at "security guarantees"...
> 
> In regards to the USN's Aegis warships (in the Med and Baltic), any missile launch by Russia that is determined to have a trajectory that would enter NATO airspace can be intercepted by them.
> 
> ...



Key word if your post “can”.

“Can” be intercepted. What is the success rate? I’m prettuy sure a successful intercept rate of a ballistic missile is not close to 100%.

If it were, there is no deterrent to using them.

Also, if we could shoot down a 100% of their ballistic missiles NATO would have engaged weeks ago and this war would be over.

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## tomo pauk (Mar 29, 2022)

Some things are certain IMO:
- nobody will believe anything the Russian government says in the next 50+- years; make it 100 years for the former USSR republics, Poland and Finland
- people will be ditching T-72/-80/-90 tanks as fast as their defence budgets allows it
- Turkish companies Baryaktar and Roketsan will be filling their pockets, and fast; (not that I have something against that, even though I dislike Erdogan very much)
- Europe better brace for expensive fuel/gas/etc for the next few years
- the only victor in this war is China

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say


LONDON (Reuters) -Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said. The second Chernobyl employee...




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Key word if your post “can”.
> 
> “Can” be intercepted. What is the success rate? I’m prettuy sure a successful intercept rate of a ballistic missile is not close to 100%.
> 
> ...


The most likely Tactical nuclear missile Russia would use, is the SS-21, which they have been firing at the Ukraine already, with conventional warheads.

The Russians also have nuclear artillery - that would be a problem.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> im really obsed about way how it was screwed by politicians


I wouldn‘t waste too much thought and especially any obsession on the Polish MiGs. Let’s instead focus on the unprecedented assistance Ukraine has received from NATO, including over ten thousand man portable missiles, plus sniper rifles, reconnaissance drones, radar systems, night vision and radio equipment. Not to mention the top notch intel the US and NATO is providing to Ukraine through recon satellites and communications intercepts - the latter likely saved Zelinsky’s life through advanced warning of a Russian assassination squad. I’d say, MiGs aside NATO is getting more right than wrong this time around.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The most likely Tactical nuclear missile Russia would use, is the SS-21, which they have been firing at the Ukraine already, with conventional warheads.
> 
> The Russians also have nuclear artillery - that would be a problem.



I’m not sure there would be enough time for an Aegis Cruiser to intercept a short range tactical nuke. We are talking very short distances here. 

I, however, was referring to a ballistic launch against a NATO country. There is no 100% success rate against those missile types. Not even close.


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Entertaining article from The Guardian: The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for KyivSpecial IT force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes is vital part of Ukraine's defence, but forced to crowdfund for supplies


Shouldn’t this info be secret until after war? Was it the Guardian that published the faulty/poorly set fuses on Argentinian bombs in the Falklands, leading to the Argentines to address the matter and sink more RN ships? Isn’t this a new “loose lips” moment?


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Signs of hope for an end to the Russian-Ukraine war emerged on Tuesday morning when a Russian official said Moscow would "reduce military action" in the north of Ukraine near Kyiv and Chirnihiv, according to multiple reports. _


Ukraine needs to retake the coast between Crimea and Donblast. If they don’t now they’ll lose it in the peace. Throw everything at that objective. Russia wants the below land bridge with Crimea in preparation for their next invasion. Take it back now or it’s gone IMO.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not sure there would be enough time for an Aegis Cruiser to intercept a short range tactical nuke. We are talking very short distances here.
> 
> I, however, was referring to a ballistic launch against a NATO country. There is no 100% success rate against those missile types. Not even close.


The Aegis systems have been going through new threat upgrades with extensive testing just last year. It's looking quite impressive at high-threat denial at present.









U.S. Successfully Conducts SM-3 Block IIA Intercept Test Against an Intercontinental Balli


The U.S. Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Navy sailors aboard the USS John Finn intercepted and destroyed a threat-representative Intercontinental Ballistic Missile target during a flight test



www.defense.gov





And here, at wiki (I know, I know, but it has a solid reference list):








Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Shouldn’t this info be secret until after war? Was it the Guardian that published the faulty/poorly set fuses on Argentinian bombs in the Falklands, leading to the Argentines to address the matter and sink more RN ships? Isn’t this a new “loose lips” moment?


No, where can i donate. This is one new thing on a battle field. And i would donate btw

Corparate slogans i imagine:

This tank was killed by Starbucks; with out sugar, 
or 
Amazone; primium and fired,
or
Microsoft update pending.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say
> 
> 
> LONDON (Reuters) -Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said. The second Chernobyl employee...
> ...


Could this be Putler's dirty bomb false flag ops, or will be? "The Ukrainians used dirty bombs on our troops." Folks in Russia don't have the same access to information as we do.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

Just to demonstrate there are bad people on both sides of this war, here's a potential war crime committed by Ukrainian troops on Russian POWs. The details aren't confirmed, and there are lots of questions...but it simply highlights the ugliness of this whole situation:









Does video show Russian prisoners being shot?


Ukrainian authorities investigate a video apparently showing Russian PoWs being shot in the legs.



www.bbc.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could this be Putler's dirty bomb false flag ops, or will be? "The Ukrainians used dirty bombs on our troops." Folks in Russia don't have the same access to information as we do.



Scary thought…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Just to demonstrate there are bad people on both sides of this war, here's a potential war crime committed by Ukrainian troops on Russian POWs. The details aren't confirmed, and there are lots of questions...but it simply highlights the ugliness of this whole situation:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



War brings out the worst in everyone.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The most likely Tactical nuclear missile Russia would use, is the SS-21, which they have been firing at the Ukraine already, with conventional warheads.
> 
> The Russians also have nuclear artillery - that would be a problem.



A tactical nuke solution is firing a nuke warhead spiked grenade from a common artillery howitzer - there is no trajectory to detect or to intercept. range 30-50km

Present modern tactical Russian vehicle based artillery missile systems from the concept similar to, an MLRS - even though there is a trajectory - but it's not a ballistic trajectory,
which is necessary for an Aegis *Ballistic *Missile Defense (*BMD*) System to go into action. One can spot a launch via satellite but with no up-link to an aircraft or
ground based anti-missile system, and even then due to it's restricted time to impact - chances for interception doesn't look good.

The intercepted Russian missiles you are referring to, AFAIK were cruise-missiles which are indeed easy to intercept. - if one has the tec.

The SS-21 is a ballistic missile - therefore unlikely to be used IMHO.

_In 1999, the "efforts" of the Ukrainian rocket engineers "Tochka-U" thundered to the whole world. On April 20, a rocket was launched from the Goncharovsky ground located 130 km north of Kiev, which then deviated from the course and at 15:05 landed in a residential building in Brovary, breaking through nine floors. The tragic incident killed 3 and injured 5 people. Fortunately, the rocket was not equipped with a warhead, otherwise there would have been much more casualties.

On 21 October 1999 US satellites [reportedly the Defense Support Program] tracked two Russian short-range ballistic missile launched from the Russian city of Mozdok some 60 miles northeast of Grozny. The missiles slammed into a crowded Grozny marketplace and a maternity ward, killing at least 143 persons, according to reports from the region. The missiles are believed by intelligence analysts to have been SS-21s.

During the ongoing civil war in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, the "Points" of the Houthi rebels did considerable damage to the Saudi coalition forces_.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## fubar57 (Mar 29, 2022)

Just some guessing...



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russian-losses-cause-result-impact-1.6400495

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

I believe that even if Putin uses a tactical nuke against Ukraine, NATO will still not commence offensive ops into Russia. It’s a defensive alliance and its only job is to deter and counter Russian offensive ops into NATO member territory. Putin can go full on Holocaust and toss a hundred thousand Ukrainian babies into the ovens, or mirror Saddam at Halabja and poison gas entire cities, and still NATO will not budge. It’s a defensive alliance, pure and simple.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

I’m not so sure there. I think even NATO has its limits. NATO at the very least needs Putler to think they will respond. And if I was Putler, I would be very wary about a fight with NATO based on how my forces have performed so for.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe that even if Putin uses a tactical nuke against Ukraine, NATO will still not commence offensive ops into Russia. It’s a defensive alliance and its only job is to deter and counter Russian offensive ops into NATO member territory. Putin can go full on Holocaust and toss a hundred thousand Ukrainian babies into the ovens, or mirror Saddam at Halabja and poison gas entire cities, and still NATO will not budge. It’s a defensive alliance, pure and simple.


Maybe it isn't so much about being a "defensive" alliance. NATO members didn't have a problem attacking underdogs - e.g. Serbia, Libya, Syria, etc.
It's the fear of the Zar's NUKES that keeps them at bay. As such, unfortunately I have to agree with your assessment.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It's the fear of the Zar's NUKES that keeps them at bay. As such, unfortunately I have to agree with your assessment.


Only one nation has used nuclear weapons in war. It’s no wonder that everyone else, and especially anyone not alligned with US geopolitics rushed to get them in order to prevent the originator from once again deciding matters with nukes or the threat thereof. Had Saddam or Gaddafi had nukes they’d likely still be in power today, like Kim in North Korea - he knew the lesson well.

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## GTX (Mar 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Here's a translation of the comments made by Russia's Alexander Fomin, who's part of the negotiating team in Istanbul:
> 
> _Due to the fact that negotiations over an agreement on Ukraine's neutrality and non-nuclear status and security guarantees (for Ukraine) are moving into a practical stage, and taking into consideration the principles discussed during today's meeting, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has taken the decision to drastically reduce combat operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas in order to boost mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and for the signing of the aforementioned agreement._


Does kind of sound like an admission that things have not gone the way they wanted but that they won't admit officially. Also sounds like they are desperate to see this ended before things get worse...on the home front in Russia.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe it isn't so much about being a "defensive" alliance. NATO members didn't have a problem attacking underdogs - e.g. Serbia, Libya, Syria, etc.
> It's the fear of the Zar's NUKES that keeps them at bay. As such, unfortunately I have to agree with your assessment.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


The "no-fly" in Libya was in response to the UN resolution 1973 and was not an offensive operation.
The NATO action in Serbia (Yugoslavia) was a response to the humanitarian crisis - UN sought intervention but was blocked by Russia and China.
The Syrian civil war had zero NATO involvement. Several NATO member nations were involved, but as seperate entities. Keep in mind that Turkey and Russia had direct military confrontation and had it been an official NATO action, then Russia's attack on Turkish forces would have seen an escalation, as Turkey is a member of NATO.

So NATO didn't attack "under dogs", each action mentioned above was a limited response to an ongoing situation.

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## GTX (Mar 29, 2022)

Russian missile rips government building apart in Mykolaiv, killing seven


As Russia's Deputy Defence Minister says the country will drastically cut its military activity around the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv, a Russian strike in Mykolaiv rips apart a building, killing at least seven and injuring many more.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Mar 29, 2022)

When it comes to spreading disinformation online, Russia has a massive bot army on its side


A massive global Twitter bot network is amplifying pro-Russian disinformation about Ukraine as part of an online information war, researchers say. Here's how they found it, and what Twitter is doing in response.




www.abc.net.au

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The "no-fly" in Libya was in response to the UN resolution 1973 and was not an offensive operation.


What does the attack onto Libya by NATO members in 2011 have to do with a UN resolution of 1973? and Libya had not attacked any NATO member


GrauGeist said:


> The NATO action in Serbia (Yugoslavia) was a response to the humanitarian crisis - UN sought intervention but was blocked by Russia and China.


Serbia had not attacked any NATO member - humanitarian action or not, NATO did attack


GrauGeist said:


> The Syrian civil war had zero NATO involvement. Several NATO member nations were involved, but as seperate entities. Keep in mind that Turkey and Russia had direct military confrontation and had it been an official NATO action, then Russia's attack on Turkish forces would have seen an escalation, as Turkey is a member of NATO.


you are joking right? did Turkey attack Syria? yes, did Syria attack Turkey? No - is Turkey a NATO member? yes
Has the US conducted airstrikes in Syria? yes, has Syria attacked the USA? no - are there US troops in Syria? yes, Is the USA a NATO member? yes


GrauGeist said:


> So NATO didn't attack "under dogs", each action mentioned above was a limited response to an ongoing situation.


So yes, NATO members have attacked several countries that have never attacked a NATO member - humanitatrian action or not, except Russia and N-Korea and any other country that has NUKES. As such to call it a "defensive" organisation is ridiculous and presently just being used as an excuse not to get involved with e.g. Russia because they are no underdog since they unfortunately have NUKES.

You honestly believe that if the UN would sanction military actions against Russia, that NATO would follow suit?

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> What does the attack onto Libya by NATO members in 2011 have to do with a UN resolution of 1973? and Libya had not attacked any NATO member
> 
> Serbia had not attacked any NATO member - humanitarian action or not, NATO did attack
> 
> ...



You're either drinking some potent kool-aid or you're getting your wires completely tangled.

NATO has ZERO power to compel member nations to act EXCEPT in defence of any member nation that is attacked. Member nations retain autonomy of foreign, domestic, and defence policies, which means NATO members are free to act militarily within the constraints of their sovereign legal framework. Just because a NATO member nation takes military action does NOT mean that such action is condoned by NATO, nor does it compel other NATO members to join the effort. 

So, yes, NATO is a purely defensive alliance. Nothing more, nothing less. There is some wriggle room when it comes to broader threats to member nations, such as the humanitarian emergency that kicked off the operations against Serbia. We can get into the whys and wherefores of NATO treating Serbia differently than Russia...but please do not confuse the unilateral actions of NATO member nations as somehow being representative of NATO the Organization.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You honestly believe that if the UN would sanction military actions against Russia…


No one believes that. This smells of a tangential distraction.


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## fubar57 (Mar 29, 2022)

From Life magazine, June 30 1941....sounds vaguely familiar

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## nuuumannn (Mar 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And the T-34 on the plinth is saying "These young whippersnappers simply don't have what it takes" or something very similar in Russian tankish.



Possibly something like "idi nahui Rossiya" I'm hoping. Those are everywhere and in every town. When I travelled on the main road between Moscow and Warsaw, every small town and village had a T-34 or some kind of war memorial, modern jet fighters were frequently seen. One small town we passed through had a Yak piston engined fighter, but we didn't stop, so I didn't get a look at it.





GrauGeist said:


> and it wasn't even in the fight.



I'm beginning to think the Russian soldiers are the equivalent of Imperial Stormtroopers in their aiming skills...

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## nuuumannn (Mar 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> then via long-range artillery 30-50 km or from a short-range Missile launcher within the Ukrainian territory



This is of course most likely as the Strategic Rocket Forces divisions operating cruise missiles from TELS have ben put on alert and are around the border, as a precautionary measure, of course. Putin has threatened global nuclear conflict following NATO's statement it would send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine, which is a worry, but again, it could be simply messaging.

I doubt NATO would charge in guns blazing even if Putin used nukes in Ukraine for the reasons stated earlier, to do with Article 5. The UN however might be forced to do something, perhaps enact a resolution, but again, I cannot see NATO as a collective go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 29, 2022)

A couple of overt commentaries by the English and Norwegian football teams during tonight's international matches:

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

That was United Nations resolution NUMBER one nine seven three, issued in 17 March 2011.

Resolution 1973 is not a year...

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## Dimlee (Mar 29, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Lurker here, but have really found everyone's insight very informative. I have not seen this article posted yet, and found it very interesting, thought others here would too:
> The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv


Good article. 
A lot of equipment for those units were purchased by volunteer organisations like this one:





Повернись живим | comebackalive







www.comebackalive.in.ua




The Ukrainian volunteer network has several advantages over the government. Speed, flexibility and ability to overcome export barriers in the countries that ban shipments to Ukraine.

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say
> 
> 
> LONDON (Reuters) -Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said. The second Chernobyl employee...
> ...


They had never heard of the explosion, go figure


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## SaparotRob (Mar 29, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Possibly something like "idi nahui Rossiya" I'm hoping. Those are everywhere and in every town. When I travelled on the main road between Moscow and Warsaw, every small town and village had a T-34 or some kind of war memorial, modern jet fighters were frequently seen. One small town we passed through had a Yak piston engined fighter, but we didn't stop, so I didn't get a look at it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They seem to have the "Red Shirts" part down.


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## Dimlee (Mar 29, 2022)

Some fireworks near Belgorod, Russian Federation.


Just some accident, right. A cigarette, a short circuit...
And why do I remember that:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say
> 
> 
> LONDON (Reuters) -Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said. The second Chernobyl employee...
> ...



They can find _sympathy_ in the dictionary ... between "shit" and "syphillis".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 29, 2022)

Pentagon casts doubt on Russian pledge to pull out of Kyiv


Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the Defense Department has seen a small number of Russian troops leave Kyiv in recent days, in what it assesses is probably a “repositioning, not a major withdrawal.”




www.yahoo.com

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## at6 (Mar 29, 2022)

I've read reports about Ukrainian soldiers picking up cell phones from dead Russians and calling home to taunt the Russian mothers. While some might find it offensive, I like it. One Russian mother was told that only the ass and one leg remained of her boy. As for shooting Russian soldiers in the legs, I question the veracity of that claim since Russians tend to stage a lot of propaganda looking for sympathy. As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?


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## nuuumannn (Mar 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?



Because to differentiate ourselves from those who dehumanise others, we must show humanity toward them, even if in our opinion they are not worthy of it.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> I've read reports about Ukrainian soldiers picking up cell phone from dead Russians and calling home to taunt the Russian mothers. While some might find it offensive, I like it. One Russian mother was told that only the ass and one leg remained of her boy. As for shooting Russian soldiers in the legs, I question the veracity of that claim since Russians tend to stage a lot of propaganda looking for sympathy. As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?


I can understand the temptation. In a similar vein the dog tag I wore during my time on active duty back at the height of the cold war in Germany 1983, didn't have the usual stuff on it. Instead, it said "If you're recovering my body, F*** off." But someone else's child? No, we need to try to be our better selves.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> I've read reports about Ukrainian soldiers picking up cell phone from dead Russians and calling home to taunt the Russian mothers. While some might find it offensive, I like it. One Russian mother was told that only the ass and one leg remained of her boy. As for shooting Russian soldiers in the legs, I question the veracity of that claim since Russians tend to stage a lot of propaganda looking for sympathy. As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?


Be careful in what you're reading.

Russian "bots" are working overtime in spreading disinformation.
So much so, even Twitter has clamped down.

As far as I have seen from verified sources, Ukrainian forces have been exceptionally humane to their adversaries in spite of the atrocities Russian forces have wrought on them.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> *As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?*



1. Because we are better than that? It’s important to keep our humanity.

2. Because not all Russians are raping and pillaging? Using your logic there should be no sympathy for any soldier (including US ones) because during war it happens on all sides (some more than others obviously).

Don’t take me wrong, I think the Russians are far more guilty of these despicable acts. My point is simply that most of these Russian soldiers are not fighting in Ukraine because they want to. In some ways they are victims of their countries authoritarian and tyrannical leadership. They are conscripted pawns with lil or no choice.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> I've read reports about Ukrainian soldiers picking up cell phone from dead Russians and calling home to taunt the Russian mothers. While some might find it offensive, I like it. One Russian mother was told that only the ass and one leg remained of her boy. As for shooting Russian soldiers in the legs, I question the veracity of that claim since Russians tend to stage a lot of propaganda looking for sympathy. As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?


You might well be horrified by the jody calls we'd sing while running through the streets of Germany in 1983 ~ 84 
"We're gonna rape kill pillage and burn" is one that I still remember. 

But if we actually did that? The rest of life in Leavenworth if you avoided the gallows. 

Sometimes things are said that aren't real; sometimes reality is worse than what we say. The US was never perfect. But even the Mỹ Lai massacre was prosecuted and even there one of the greatest stories of courage in the US Army's history happened: look up Hugh Thompson Jr. sometime. His example is what we can, should, must, live up to.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> You might well be horrified by the jody calls we'd sing while running through the streets of Germany in 1983 ~ 84
> "We're gonna rape kill pillage and burn" is one that I still remember.
> 
> But if we actually did that? The rest of life in Leavenworth if you avoided the gallows.
> ...



Where were you stationed in Germany? We were in Bad Kreuznach from 1980-1983, Stuttgart from 1988-2000, and then Ansbach from 2001-2012.


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That was United Nations resolution NUMBER one nine seven three, issued in 17 March 2011.
> 
> Resolution 1973 is not a year...


Ups, my mistake I had overlooked that

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Where were you stationed in Germany? We were in Bad Kreuznach from 1980-1983, Stuttgart from 1988-2000, and then Ansbach from 2001-2012.


Illeshiem. Near Bad Windsheim, down the tracks from Ansbach where BDE headquarters was. C co 1/13th Armor (Cav before, and now again) 1st brigade 1st Armor Division. Later I did a short tour at Hohenfels with the OPFOR unit. Playing door gunner there was a blast for an old tanker.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> and then Ansbach



Ansbach! woop woop! Memories of a terrific night spent in a bar with some Brits, but I got all the attention and lots of freebies from the bar owners and patrons because I was wearing my All Blacks rugby jersey. The Germans were fascinated by the fact there was a New Zealander there - they were used to Yanks and Brits, but not Kiwis...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Illeshiem. Near Bad Windsheim, down the tracks from Ansbach where BDE headquarters was. C co 1/13th Armor (Cav before, and now again) 1st brigade 1st Armor Division. Later I did a short tour at Hohenfels with the OPFOR unit. Playing door gunner there was a blast for an old tanker.



Yeap, Illesheim was just down the road from Ansbach. We used to fly there about every day. Spent many days/nights in the “Hohenhell Box”. I swear Hohenfels had its own weather generator. It could be sunny and clear blue ans 22 outside the perimeter, but inside the box it would be cold and rainy.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Ansbach! woop woop! Memories of a terrific night spent in a bar with some Brits, but I got all the attention and lots of freebies from the bar owners and patrons because I was wearing my All Blacks rugby jersey. The Germans were fascinated by the fact there was a New Zealander there - they were used to Yanks and Brits, but not Kiwis...


Cool! Never worked with anyone from "down under" but I loved occasions we had to work with the Germans, the French (excellent rations! They got stuck with 1st gen MRE's when we traded, poor bastards!) and the BAOR.

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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeap, Illesheim was just down the road from Ansbach. We used to fly there about every day. Spent many days/nights in the “Hohenhell Box”. I swear Hohenfels had its own weather generator. It could be sunny and clear blue ans 22 outside the perimeter, but inside the box it would be cold and rainy.


Oh god yes. And in the spring when the German farmers spread the liquid manure on their fields it made those morning runs even more hellish than the hangovers because of the stench. 

Nice to hear of someone knowing where Illesheim is. A little town in the middle of Bavaria. But it was nice and I spent more than a few DMs at the gasthaus in town for Jagerschnizel


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> ......but please do not confuse the unilateral actions of NATO member nations as somehow being representative of NATO the Organization......


I am not, actually you are
As you can see from my post you quoted and my previous one I have for good reasons written NATO *members* - never NATO alliance as a whole. 
This clearly shows that NATO *members* have taken military action against diverse countries-even amongst themselves, all of them with *no nuke capability*!! 

As such in regards to the Ukraine situation presently forwarding the NATO alliance is a defensive organization and therefore can only act if a member is attacked - is to me a lame excuse, covering up the real reason, which is that no European NATO *member* wants to militarily get entangled with a nuke possessing country, like e.g. Russia.

That's all - there is to it.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh god yes. And in the spring when the German farmers spread the liquid manure on their fields it made those morning runs even more hellish than the hangovers because of the stench.
> 
> Nice to hear of someone knowing where Illesheim is. A little town in the middle of Bavaria. But it was nice and I spent more than a few DMs at the gasthaus in town for Jagerschnizel



Yeah, the Franconia region of Bavaria is beautiful and only a short drive from the alps. Used to love the weekend trips to stay at Cheimsee or the General Walker Hotel near Berchtesgaden.

I spent most of my life in Germany. My mom is German, and my dad was US Army and retired there (still lives there). I was fortunate to be stationed in Germany after basic/AIT, and ended up marrying a German myself and them got out in Germany. If it were not for my career I would still be there. We fly back pretty every year to visit our families.


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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, the Franconia region of Bavaria is beautiful and only a short drive from the alps. Used to love the weekend trips to stay at Cheimsee or the General Walker Hotel near Berchtesgaden.
> 
> I spent most of my life in Germany. My mom is German, and my dad was US Army and retired there (still lives there). I was fortunate to be stationed in Germany after basic/AIT, and ended up marrying a German myself and them got out in Germany. If it were not for my career I would still be there. We fly back pretty every year to visit our families.


My favorite weekend place was Rothenburg ob der Tauber as it was just a hop skip and jump on the trains. I'd snoop in the shops and museums then buy a big picnic of salami, cheese, bread rolls and wine at the shops and hang in the park they made in the moat. Wonderful memories.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am not, actually you are
> As you can see from my post you quoted and my previous one I have for good reasons written NATO *members* - never NATO alliance as a whole.
> This clearly shows that NATO *members* have taken military action against diverse countries-even amongst themselves, all of them with *no nuke capability*!!
> 
> ...


Well, it appears you're not fully versed on NATO's purpose.
It was intended to prevent the Soviet Union from taking the rest of Europe as Stalin had intended.
It was (and is) a defensive organization and as such, cannot initiate an offensive action.
As much as NATO and member nations want to militarily go to the Ukraine's aid, they cannot.
Even with Russian drones violating Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian and even Croatian air space, NATO is being reserved in order to not trigger another World War.

And keep in mind that NATO members that possess nuclear weapons include France and the UK - not just the U.S.

And let's be honest here: little Ukraine has stopped the mighty Russian military dead in it's tracks. Now imagine the full weight of the NATO nations bringing their full weight to bear in an all out war against Russia...it would be swift and conclusive.

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## MiTasol (Mar 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And let's be honest here: little Ukraine has stopped the mighty Russian military dead in it's tracks. Now imagine the full weight of the NATO nations bringing their full weight to bear in an all out war against Russia...it would be swift and conclusive.



And the death toll would almost certainly make ww2 look minuscule because Putin would not hesitate to let the nukes fly if there was any real threat to his position.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

No more comments from my side - I have clearly stated as to the true reason of not being willing to engage with Russia and clearly pointed out some of the factual military actions conducted by NATO *members* in the past 60 years.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No more comments from my side - I have clearly stated as to the true reason of not being willing to engage with Russia and clearly pointed out some of the factual military actions conducted by NATO *members* in the past 60 years.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


I'm not sure if this is accurate, but do you realize you're coming across as just another Tanki? Please feel free to correct me.


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

Tanki ? no idea what that is supposed to mean.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?


Your post demonstrates the power of propaganda and selective media. The Russians are the aggressors here, no argument there, but Ukraine is trying to paint the invader as a murderous, raping horde. I’ll wait for the dust to settle.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Tanki ? no idea what that is supposed to mean.


Something about saying no to glue in sewer pipes and making prudent toilet paper choices, as best I can tell.






Say No To Glue - Tanki


Over 22,000 Tonnes of glue is flushed in the UK because of the toilet paper that we choose. Try Tanki, the glue and plastic free toilet roll




tanki.co.uk





No idea how this apparent brain fart is on topic here.

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## at6 (Mar 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Someone about saying no to glue in sewer pipes, as best I can tell.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Is that why a sample roll of UK toilet paper stuck my butt cheeks together?

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## wlewisiii (Mar 30, 2022)

At least here in America, a Tanki is one of those who is nominally leftist but spends too much time toeing the Moscow line. Talking their propaganda. Presumably a "useful idiot" who believes it but not necessarily. 

Leftism in America was always crippled. Still is. I'm as hard left as 99.99% of Americans that you're likely to ever meet. My attitudes are fairly mild by Euro standards. Our left has always been either corrupted by the fascists or corrupted by the communists. We have found it very difficult to find a path to actually help the proletariat without those corrupting forces. I am nominally part of the DSA because it's as close as we have to a real leftist political organization (the Democrats are Center/Right by European standards, and the Republicans are fascist Right). That said, I do what I can, support any candidate who might get us a step closer, because I don't want to fight an insurgency. I will if it comes to that (and that is why I own an AK47) to keep my son safe, but I really don't want to. 

I hope this helps you understand a wee bit better.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am not, actually you are
> As you can see from my post you quoted and my previous one I have for good reasons written NATO *members* - never NATO alliance as a whole.
> This clearly shows that NATO *members* have taken military action against diverse countries-even amongst themselves, all of them with *no nuke capability*!!
> 
> ...



And yet you said "As such to call it a "defensive" organisation is ridiculous..." so despite your frequent use of the word "members" it's pretty clear you were referring to NATO as an organization.


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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet you said "As such to call it a "defensive" organisation is ridiculous..." so despite your frequent use of the word "members" it's pretty clear you were referring to NATO as an organization.


I certainly got no problem with you quoting me on a previous post of mine.
But please quote and reread my statement in it's *entirety *not just picking out a specific line that fit's to your opinion or interpretation.

_So yes, NATO *members* have attacked several countries that have never attacked a NATO member - humanitarian action or not, except Russia and N-Korea and any other country that has NUKES. As such to call it a "defensive" organization is ridiculous and *presently just being used as an excuse not to get involved *with e.g. Russia because they are no underdog since they unfortunately have NUKES._

My English isn't as good as yours, so instead of using the word "call it" I should maybe have written "referring to it now as being a defensive........."

So can we now please come back to the actual topic - what is the Zar planning? even if he would agree to an armistice - what will be his real goal/intentions? IMHO he is NOT going
to stop persuing his dream of recreating the Former Soviet Union or his Czarist empire.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Something about saying no to glue in sewer pipes and making prudent toilet paper choices, as best I can tell.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


okay got it - thanks

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 30, 2022)

Let’s stop taking this too far into politics gentleman…

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## MiTasol (Mar 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> As Russians tend to rape and murder why would I have sympathy for even one of them?



I have worked with a lot of Russians and like most people they are just like the average American or Brit or whoever else you meet in *normal *circumstances.

War turns many people into animals - regardless of race, colour, religion or any of the other artificial barriers that man invents to justify mankind's inhumanity to mankind.

It was not Russians at Mi Lai https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Mỹ_Lai_massacre any more than it was Americans at Auschwitz or Germans at the Inquisition.

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## Jerad (Mar 30, 2022)

Russian soldiers left behind abandoned in Evac Mission

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## buffnut453 (Mar 30, 2022)

Russia is claiming to have recruited 16,000 mercenaries from the Middle East to fight in Ukraine:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60923158?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62442da61fea84616a6cd44e%26Russia%20claims%20to%20have%20recruited%2016%2C000%20Middle%20East%20fighters%262022-03-30T14%3A15%3A03.847Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c6d214fe-e143-4769-9418-2fbc8d8cec33&pinned_post_asset_id=62442da61fea84616a6cd44e&pinned_post_type=share

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russia is claiming to have recruited 16,000 mercenaries from the Middle East to fight in Ukraine…


Are there any armed forces of the globe that’s had worse success when armed by the Russians than those of the Middle East? Well, by this conflict, besides the Russians clearly. If well armed by NATO, the Ukrainians (along with their own 20,000 volunteer rather than mercenary foreign fighters) will eat these interlopers for lunch.

Ukraine needs to reallocate forces and efforts to the southeast. The Russian-held land connection with Crimea must be severed before the ceasefire. I fear that Ukraine is going to win (or survive) the war but lose the Peace.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 30, 2022)

Bringing in jihadists from foreign countries makes sense if you are fighting in a region with a large Muslim population. They can count on local religious sympathies to assist them. Sending them into a land foreign to Islam against a population that is fighting a foreign invasion might not yield the results you want. Then again, it's mercenaries dying, and not your own people, so, less outcry on the home front.

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## vikingBerserker (Mar 30, 2022)

...and to be paid in rubles on top of that

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## GrauGeist (Mar 30, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> ...and to be paid in rubles on top of that


Putler probably didn't think this one through enough - mercinaries don't usually care who they kill and if you aren't able to pay them, there will be trouble.
If I were Zelensky, I'd put the word out that I'd pay them more, in actual money even!

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## tomo pauk (Mar 30, 2022)

Putlin authorized copying of foreign intellectual property (inventions, software, movies, music) in Russia:

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## imalko (Mar 30, 2022)

> buffnut453 said:
> 
> 
> > And yet you said "As such to call it a "defensive" organisation is ridiculous..." so despite your frequent use of the word "members" it's pretty clear you were referring to NATO as an organization.



People who are on the receiving end of bombs care little if the bombs are dropped by _"NATO member states"_ or _"NATO as an organization"_. Speaking from experience.
However you chose to look at it, Jagdfieger's point is valid - none of aforementioned countries would have been attacked if they had possessed nuclear capability.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 30, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> ...and to be paid in rubles on top of that


Nothing wrong with Rubles, they’re on a near record streak right now.









The ruble surges close to pre-invasion levels as Russia-Ukraine talks raise hopes for end to fighting


Controls that Russia's central bank imposed are also helping to bring the ruble back to life after it tumbled to less than a penny when the war began.




markets.businessinsider.com













Ruble becomes best-performing currency in March; soars to 83 to the dollar


The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.




www.business-standard.com


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## JDCAVE (Mar 30, 2022)

More on what we have suspected all along…

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/30/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#putin-advisers-ukraine

Jim

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## buffnut453 (Mar 30, 2022)

imalko said:


> People who are on the receiving end of bombs care little if the bombs are dropped by _"NATO member states"_ or _"NATO as an organization"_. Speaking from experience.
> However you chose to look at it, Jagdfieger's point is valid - none of aforementioned countries would have been attacked if they had possessed nuclear capability.



Can't disagree with anything in the above. The semantics of whether it's NATO or a member nation acting unilaterally matter a great deal, however, to this man, General Tod Wolters, who is both Commander USEUCOM and SACEUR. 







Any (western) senior military leader who's making decisions about the employment of military force will be acutely aware of the legal framework within which they are operating, the authorities that are delegated to them (and by whom), and the constraints and restraints with which they must comply (e.g. rules of engagement). 

I also entirely agree that possessing nuclear weapons significantly alters the decision dynamic. I still contend that individual acts by NATO member nations do not invalidate the defensive nature of the Alliance.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I still contend that individual acts by NATO member nations do not invalidate the defensive nature of the Alliance.


I agree. There‘s nothing to stop Poland from sending in its army into Ukraine on Kyiv’s invitation tomorrow to help Ukraine. As long as the Poles don’t take a step into Russia they’re good to go. Now, if Russia in retaliation invades Poland, I’m not sure the latter can now claim Article 5 support from NATO.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 30, 2022)

Herein lies the problem, though - even if a NATO member acts on it's own, completely independent of NATO, such as Romania assisting Moldova, for example, Putin will still claim that it's an act of NATO aggression in spite of the facts.

This clown is literally begging for some miniscule shred of evidence to prove that NATO has been mean to Mother Russia this entire time.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 30, 2022)

Now this is REALLY interesting. The report is from the BBC (just so you know it's not me incorrectly depicting GCHQ as Britain's "cyber-intelligence agency"). However, we have a very senior intelligence official providing some pretty specific details of actions by Russian forces...and it's not very complimentary:
_
Russian troops have accidentally shot down their own aircraft and have at times refused to obey orders, according to Britain's cyber-intelligence agency, GCHQ.

In a speech to be delivered at the Australian National University on Thursday, Sir Jeremy Fleming will say it is clear that Vladimir Putin "massively misjudged" the situation in Ukraine, and "over-estimated" the capabilities of Russia's military.

"We've seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale - refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," says the text of the speech on GCHQ's website.

Echoing comments from US and Ukrainian officials this week, Fleming will also say that Putin's advisers "are afraid to tell him the truth".

Even so, Fleming will say that "what's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime".

The speech also notes that GCHQ believes Russia has made a "sustained" attempt to disrupt Ukraine through cyber-attacks.

"And we've certainly seen indicators which suggest that Russia's cyber actors are looking for targets in countries that oppose their actions," he said._

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## fubar57 (Mar 30, 2022)

Maybe someone from this site should send Putin an invitation to join so that he can get the latest updates

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 30, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Maybe someone from this site should send Putin an invitation to join so that he can get the latest updates



Pretty sure we're blocked in Mother Russia by now!

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## nuuumannn (Mar 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> clearly pointed out some of the factual military actions conducted by NATO *members* in the past 60 years.



Have those actions always been under the guise of NATO implementation? There is a difference here - NATO member states have the power to act independently of their NATO commitments. Just because they are members of NATO doesn't mean that NATO governs their every action. The same is with the UN. UN mandated action is not necessarily NATO mandated action, despite the fact that NATO member states might make up the majority of constituents within a particular mandated action. For example, the 1991 Gulf War. NATO member states the UK, USA and France (and other NATO nations) took part but it was not a NATO initiated event. The nations' forces engaged in Desert Storm were not acting on behalf of NATO.

It's easy to get the political distinctions mixed, but it should not happen, lest misrepresentation take place, which I suspect is Mark's point.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 30, 2022)

imalko said:


> However you chose to look at it, Jagdfieger's point is valid - none of aforementioned countries would have been attacked if they had possessed nuclear capability.



To a point. His is a generalisation and in this situation context is everything. I do know that the NATO Secretary General has made it specifically clear it will not act against Russia over Ukraine because of the _fear of war in Europe_, nuclear or otherwise. That Russia has nuclear weapons obviously changes the dynamic if they are used, but let's be clear, in these other circumstances the threat of all-out continental war was not a possible outcome, which also defines what action NATO might or might not take. 

The statement that NATO's past actions are defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power is glib and doesn't sufficiently contextualise the individual circumstances. 

It's not a conclusion that can be applied in this circumstance simply because it isn't the sole driving factor behind NATO's stance. That Russia has nuclear weapons obviously influences the situation because nuclear weapons are held in a different context to conventional weapons but it isn't the _only_ consideration.

Diplomacy is a treading fine line and acting on behalf of other people's interests comes loaded with conditions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 30, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> To a point. His is a generalisation and in this situation context is everything. I do know that the NATO Secretary General has made it specifically clear it will not act against Russia over Ukraine because of the _fear of war in Europe_, nuclear or otherwise. That Russia has nuclear weapons obviously changes the dynamic if they are used, but let's be clear, in these other circumstances the threat of all-out continental war was not a possible outcome, which also defines what action NATO might or might not take.
> 
> The statement that NATO's past actions are defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power is glib and doesn't sufficiently contextualise the individual circumstances.
> 
> ...



In the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US quarantine wasn't a NATO action. Not was either Iraq war, though both were spearheaded by the US.

I think dismissing the nuclear opposition as "glib" is inaccurate. It has been referenced by both sides currently and is offered specifically as a reason for opposing the imposition of a NATO no-fly zone ... so it matters.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think dismissing the nuclear opposition as "glib" is inaccurate.



Clearly, you are misquoting me. Re-read my statement, Thump.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 30, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Bringing in jihadists from foreign countries makes sense if you are fighting in a region with a large Muslim population. They can count on local religious sympathies to assist them. Sending them into a land foreign to Islam against a population that is fighting a foreign invasion might not yield the results you want. Then again, it's mercenaries dying, and not your own people, so, less outcry on the home front.


I saw a DW interview of someone with contacts in the Russian military. Putin learned from Chechnya and Afghanistan. When the body bags started coming back and Russian mothers started protesting, regime change. By using conscripts from distant parts of Russia and not soldiers from the big cities, high casualty figures can be easily hidden. BTW this why the troops are of such low quality. Putin, the only man to defeat Russia in winter. 
There were a few other points brought up (why are so many generals dead, why no one knows who is in charge, etc) and I would like to reference it but I can't find it again. 

Edit: "How large is the discontent among Russia's political and security elite/ Conflict Zone. It's a DW feature.

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## at6 (Mar 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure we're blocked in Mother Russia by now!


And those of us who are unsympathetic to the Kremlin are probably being added to an arrest list.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 31, 2022)

Vlad is just deeply misunderstood. It's NATO's fault.

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## SaparotRob (Mar 31, 2022)

I read an article about declines in the Chinese stock market. It brought up the shelling of Kyiv is sending a contradictory message of Putin’s message of limiting operations around Kyiv. 
Anyone ever seen the movie Mars Attacks? There’s a scene with the Martians carrying the translator “We come in peace “ while laying waste to the entire area.

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## Snautzer01 (Mar 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read an article about declines in the Chinese stock market. It brought up the shelling of Kyiv is sending a contradictory message of Putin’s message of limiting operations around Kyiv.
> Anyone ever seen the movie Mars Attacks? There’s a scene with the Martians carrying the translator “We come in peace “ while laying waste to the entire area.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Have those actions always been under the guise of NATO implementation? There is a difference here - NATO member states have the power to act independently of their NATO commitments. Just because they are members of NATO doesn't mean that NATO governs their every action. The same is with the UN. UN mandated action is not necessarily NATO mandated action, despite the fact that NATO member states might make up the majority of constituents within a particular mandated action. For example, the 1991 Gulf War. NATO member states the UK, USA and France (and other NATO nations) took part but it was not a NATO initiated event. The nations' forces engaged in Desert Storm were not acting on behalf of NATO.
> 
> It's easy to get the political distinctions mixed, but it should not happen, lest misrepresentation take place, which I suspect is Mark's point.


Where would you draw the line in order to differentiate?
NATO undoubtedly was founded as a defensive organization to maintain/guarantee peace in Europe- with special hindsight towards the Warsaw pact and it's big daddy Soviet-union.
And it performed admirably to that role. This however did not exclude NATO members from taking military action e.g. in the Suez Campaign.
As such drawing a line between NATO's overall founding role and commitment of individual NATO members interests.

Turkey (NATO member) had attacked Greece (NATO member) as such the NATO would have had to militaily support Greece and exclude Turkey from NATO. Didn't happen due to obvious NATO (US) interests in Turkey.

The Falklands: despite a NATO member having been attacked - No military NATO response as such, due to articles stated in the NATO framework - excluding an event such as the Falklands. Even if Soviet forces had actively supported the Argentine military - still no NATO issue - but maybe the USA or some other NATO members would have acted independently
in support of the UK.

So far so good, but then come the 90's and onward history of NATO.

From the 90's onward NATO has been looking/searching for a new task (meaning) - still being a defensive organization in it's origin, but no more Warsaw pact and a Soviet-union
perceived as not being a threat anymore towards Europe. So towards who is the European part of NATO going to be defensive organization? That was the main question and issue.

E.g. Italian aircraft's used against Libya were NATO controlled units - meaning under NATO command - not national Italian command. So in that case clearly NATO not just a NATO member had taken military action against a country that had not attacked any NATO member. The same issue also had applied towards e.g. Serbia.

As such if one uses NATO commanded military units in a military attack, then it is an attack conducted and executed by NATO - which in those cases wasn't a defensive act at all.
NATO forces off-course in turn being ordered by the NATO supreme command who in turn got its order from their respective governments.

Also if you remember or have a chance to revisit live news or official government statements in regards to e.g. the Serbia campaign.:
Every single attack or mission was commented as e.g. NATO strike mission onto Serbian forces or installations/targets - in more detail adding information such as e.g. Italian and Dutch aircraft's were amongst NATO conducted missions. So clearly the governments and the media referred to it as what it was NATO led strikes/attacks. and not Italian or Dutch airstrikes or whatever NATO member you might care to choose.

Therefore due to all these NATO commanded actions - not just by individual NATO members (and always against non nuclear powers) Now to bring in the "defensive role" of NATO in regards to the Ukraine to me is ridiculous. It is simply an excuse (realistic towards a sad fact) forwarded by NATO and its respective governments, since no-one is willing (at least in Europe) to risk a nuclear confrontation because of the Ukraine.

However to me it is crystal clear since Putin'ss speech at the German parliament in Dec. 1990 - that this guy means business if he would ever manage to gain control in the Kremlin.

Back to topic:
So NATO is not willing (therefore not able) to engage actively militarily against him being a nuclear power. Next on his agenda will be e.g. Belarus and Moldavia on the West and some others to his East and South. So what is NATO and Europe/USA going to do about it? Drastic economic sanctions seem to be the only viable solution to me - not discussing unrealistic military actions. And off-course stuffing the Ukraine up to the neck with useful military hardware. Problem might be that if the Ukraine can't stop him in the long run - he will get his
hands onto great western military hardware - so back to economic sanctions - no?

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Dimlee (Mar 31, 2022)

Kärnvapenbestyckade ryska plan kränkte svenskt luftrum


Källor till TV4 Nyheterna: Medveten handling i syfte att skrämma




www-tv4-se.translate.goog

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

RUSSIA: "It's our right and our destiny to enjoy the superpower status that we attained by our own efforts and sacrifices and that we were deprived of by the evil corrupt West. Hey, Ukraine, you've had your little fling with corrupt western ideas, but you're rightfully ours, and it's time to come home to papa. Recess is over. Back to class. We're here to liberate you from the tyranny of western idealogies."
UKRAINE: "Sorry, Uncle, I'm on my own now, and you have no jurisdiction over me any more, so buzz off!"
RUSSIA: "What an ungrateful, rebellious child you are! We're coming for you!"
UKRAINE: "Bring it on, Uncle. We're ready!"
"Hey NATO, could you give us a hand? Little overmatched here. Plenty of spirit, but we could use a little ammo and some second hand jets."
NATO: "Yes on the ammo, sorry 'bout the jets. Hang in there, kiddo, we're rooting for you."

Well that about covers the first 168 pages. Anyone want to add to this narrative? Maybe this thread could become another groundhog exercise.

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read an article about declines in the Chinese stock market. It brought up the shelling of Kyiv is sending a contradictory message of Putin’s message of limiting operations around Kyiv.
> Anyone ever seen the movie Mars Attacks? There’s a scene with the Martians carrying the translator “We come in peace “ while laying waste to the entire area.


Actually the Chinese stock-market already declined 20% in the period Jan-Feb. Since the Czar's enterprise it dropped barely 5%. The reason to me lies in the re-surge
of Covid-19 since January - nothing much to do with the Ukraine/Russia conflict. The eastern part of Shanghai (China's most important economic hub) is in total look-down
right now, and the western city part will start tomorrow for 5 days.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Clearly, you are misquoting me. Re-read my statement, Thump.



The comparison of past actions and the current situation seems implied but obvious, to me.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Where would you draw the line in order to differentiate?
> NATO undoubtedly was founded as a defensive organization to maintain/guarantee peace in Europe- with special hindsight towards the Warsaw pact and it's big daddy Soviet-union.
> And it performed admirably to that role. This however did not exclude NATO members from taking military action e.g. in the Suez Campaign.
> As such drawing a line between NATO's overall founding role and commitment of individual NATO members interests.
> ...



I entirely agree that NATO was looking for a purpose in the 1990s and that the decade marked a shift in NATO's understanding of its role and mission. However, these offensive operations were conducted within the scope of UN resolutions against the background of existing civil wars. That context is critical. They were not attacks against peaceful, or at least at-peace, sovereign nations. We can continue to argue the rights and wrongs of the issue but with UN resolutions in-place, NATO leaders and legal eagles clearly felt there was sufficient legitimacy for the use of force. Again, this comes down to the legal framework that enables military operations. It is the legal decision that defines the difference between a NATO operation or unilateral action by one or more members, either acting independently or cooperating within a coalition. 

Now, you're bang on the money that the nuclear issue hangs over every current political and military decision by the western nations. Whether we agree or disagree, prior NATO offensive operations were largely due to the humanitarian issues caused by the civil wars. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is generating an even bigger humanitarian crisis but--and it's a BIG but--NATO involvement will absolutely trigger an all-out war with Russia. That is a HUGE decision for NATO to make....and the problem here is that, if NATO does act in Ukraine, it will be used by Putin to show that NATO is a direct threat to Russia. It will solidify Russian support for the current war and clearly risks descent into nuclear war.

While I agree that Putin only responds to power, it's equally important that he be given some kind of off-ramp. Backing a mad dog into a corner won't end well when that mad dog
has nukes.


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## SaparotRob (Mar 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Actually the Chinese stock-market already declined 20% in the period Jan-Feb. Since the Czar's enterprise it dropped barely 5%. The reason to me lies in the re-surge
> of Covid-19 since January - nothing much to do with the Ukraine/Russia conflict. The eastern part of Shanghai (China's most important economic hub) is in total look-down
> right now, and the western city part will start tomorrow for 5 days.
> 
> ...


The article was about trends and events effecting the market in general. I was taking a break from reading about the war Special Military Piracy. The bit about Putin saying "we're drawing down" while shelling the crap out of Kyiv was one of the destabilizing causes.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

In case anyone's interested, the full text of the GCHQ Director's speech to the Australian National University can be found here:









Director GCHQ's speech on global security amid war in Ukraine


Director GCHQ Sir Jeremy Fleming's full speech from the Australian National University (Thursday 31st March 2022)




www.gchq.gov.uk

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I entirely agree that NATO was looking for a purpose in the 1990s and that the decade marked a shift in NATO's understanding of its role and mission. However, these offensive operations were conducted within the scope of UN resolutions against the background of existing civil wars. That context is critical. They were not attacks against peaceful, or at least at-peace, sovereign nations. We can continue to argue the rights and wrongs of the issue but with UN resolutions in-place, NATO leaders and legal eagles clearly felt there was sufficient legitimacy for the use of force. Again, this comes down to the legal framework that enables military operations. It is the legal decision that defines the difference between a NATO operation or unilateral action by one or more members, either acting independently or cooperating within a coalition.
> 
> Now, you're bang on the money that the nuclear issue hangs over every current political and military decision by the western nations. Whether we agree or disagree, prior NATO offensive operations were largely due to the humanitarian issues caused by the civil wars. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is generating an even bigger humanitarian crisis but--and it's a BIG but--NATO involvement will absolutely trigger an all-out war with Russia. That is a HUGE decision for NATO to make....and the problem here is that, if NATO does act in Ukraine, it will be used by Putin to show that NATO is a direct threat to Russia. It will solidify Russian support for the current war and clearly risks descent into nuclear war.
> 
> ...


Now you seem to be twisting out of the initial content of our discussion - if I may say so, nothing personal against you at all.

The debate wasn't about justified attacks by NATO acting upon UN resolutions, but that NATO is supposedly a purely defensive organization - which it is obviously no more since 1990.
And off-course these UN resolutions again only came in view of attacking -maybe you prefer pacifying - military underdog countries with no nukes. If these countries had been in
possession of nukes, I am dead sure that e.g. the imposition of a no-fly zone in Libya would have never passed the UN approval process.

As for Putin - economic sanctions might take a while to really bite, but at the end it is the only viable solution to me at present. Russian citizens are in vast majority not some dumb brainwashed obedient bunch of starving North-Koreans who got no idea as to what is happening in the world. And IMHO they are the ones who will sooner or later decide about the Czar's fate.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Mar 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The article was about trends and events effecting the market in general. I was taking a break from reading about the war Special Military Piracy. The bit about Putin saying "we're drawing down" while shelling the crap out of Kyiv was one of the destabilizing causes.


Certainly our Western markets and share-markets will be far more affected by increasing actions in regards to the Ukraine/Russia situation then those in China.
Putin's "drawing down" is just a phrase to cover up his other intentions.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Now you seem to be twisting out of the initial content of our discussion - if I may say so, nothing personal against you at all.
> 
> The debate wasn't about justified attacks by NATO acting upon UN resolutions, but that NATO is supposedly a purely defensive organization - which it is obviously no more since 1990.
> And off-course these UN resolutions again only came in view of attacking -maybe you prefer pacifying - military underdog countries with no nukes. If these countries had been in
> ...



We'll have to agree to disagree, I'm afraid. The NATO Charter, which I linked to earlier in this thread, provides some wriggle room for operations if there's a compelling and legal need. Take a look at the text of Article 1 (I've bolded text that is important):

Article 1: The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to *settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means *in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to *refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations*.
NOTE: "Settling international disputes by peaceful means" is a broad term, particularly in the modern era of globalization which often means conflict or other acts outside NATO's territory will impact one or more NATO members...and that's the origin for the more interventionist interpretations of NATO's role. 
NOTE: Article 1 implicitly enables NATO to use force in ways that ARE consistent with the purposes of the UN (i.e. under UN resolutions).

It's worth noting that the 14 Articles of the NATO Charter have not changed since they were first written. What has changed are the legal interpretations of those Articles. 

Since 1990, NATO has embarked on 22 named operations, of which:

2 were due to implementation of NATO Charter Article 5 (due to the 9/11 attack on the US)
3 have involved defence of NATO members' territory
8 were in support of UN resolutions
4 were peacekeeping missions (Joint Endeavor, Joint Guard, Joint Forge, and KFOR) that followed on from prior operations in support of UN resolutions
1 was a security mission to disarm insurgent fighters in Albania (no combat was involved, AFAIK)
1 was a humanitarian airlift to Pakistan
1 was a training support mission to Afghanistan (again, no offensive combat was involved)
That leaves just 2 instances where NATO has conducted offensive operations: Deliberate Force and Allied Force. Ostensibly, Deliberate Force was enacted to protect UN safe areas, and could therefore be tied into the operations in support of UN mandates. Allied Force remains somewhat questionable in terms of legitimacy, depending on which legal interpretation one supports. 

I keep banging on about the legal framework for operations because that is key to how Western nations undertake military operations. There has to be a legal justification for the use of force. We may disagree with that justification, and Allied Force is the one most obvious example. However, overall I think NATO's track record is pretty good when it comes to using force to resolve situations and then help with rebuilding efforts.

Has NATO's role evolved? Yes. Does that mean it's no longer defensive in nature? No.

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## Admiral Beez (Mar 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Back to topic….


Thank JMFC. What an off topic distraction. No one GAF except two or three lobbing nonsense at each other.

Now, really back on topic. Russia is clearly moving its focus to holding and expanding its territory in eastern Ukraine. The Ukranians must prepare to cut off and counter this effort before any ceasefire is called.

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## GrauGeist (Mar 31, 2022)

lmao @ "back to topic"

The "nonsense" about NATO is a very real factor in the current war un Ukraine regarding how and what assistance can be given in support of their fight against Russia.

Just because the facts don't fit a personal narrative does not made it off-topic.

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## Dimlee (Mar 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thank JMFC. What an off topic distraction. No one GAF except two or three lobbing nonsense at each other.
> 
> Now, really back on topic. Russia is clearly moving its focus to holding and expanding its territory in eastern Ukraine. The Ukranians must prepare to cut off and counter this effort before any ceasefire is called.


This is where the lack of mid/long range SAM systems is an obstacle. It's just 100 km from the forward Ukrainian positions to besieged Mariupol where Azov fighters and marines run out of ammo and food. But a 100 km march in that landscape without proper anti-air defence is suicidal.

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## Dimlee (Mar 31, 2022)

In a sentimental mood...
The song in the background is the unofficial hymn of Kyiv.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The comparison of past actions and the current situation seems implied but obvious, to me.



You're still getting my intent totally off mark. This is what I said:

"The statement that NATO's past actions are defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power is glib and doesn't sufficiently contextualise the individual circumstances.

Let's break it down. Firstly, *the statement is glib. *The statement is this part: "NATO's past actions are defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power"

This is what I meant by the whole thing.

NATO's previous actions are _not_ solely defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power, because that does not take the context of NATO's past actions into consideration. 

As I made it plainly clear, the NATO Sec Gen stated he didn't want war in Europe, nuclear or otherwise. Then in the next paragraph I add that nuclear weapons bring a different dynamic to proceedings, which is very much a counter to your assertion that I was thought the nuclear issue is glib.

Very different to what you implied, isn't it...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> NATO's previous actions are _not_ solely defined by whether or not the opposing state was a nuclear power, because that does not take the context of NATO's past actions into consideration.



They're not _solely_ defined by whether or not the opposing power possessed or possesses nuclear arms -- which, by the way is nothing I claimed -- but the public pronouncements of government officials on both sides of the Atlantic have referenced that as _the_ reason for avoiding things such as no-fly zones or delivering the Polish MiGs in this case. It is very much in the discussion on this particular matter. If you'd like sources I'll be happy to provide them.

I think in this particular instance, the nuclear shadow looms large over decision-making in Brussels, Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin. NATO in particular and the West in general are avoiding more-active measures precisely because of Russian nukes. If Russia lacked nuclear capability, I doubt we'd be having this discussion at all.

_That _is my point, and again, I'll be happy to provide support for this point should you desire.

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## fubar57 (Mar 31, 2022)



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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They're not _solely_ defined by whether or not the opposing power possessed or possesses nuclear arms



You're STILL misunderstanding the point I'm making! You've got to the point that you are now inadvertently agreeing with me!

It looks to be that you are deliberately attempting to start an argument, which is nonsense and not necessary. I don't disagree with what you are saying, but what you are saying is NOT counter to the point I was initially making, simply because you* misunderstood *it.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> So NATO is not willing (therefore not able) to engage actively militarily against him being a nuclear power.



Nice that you have pointed all these things out, but you haven't really done anything except provide circumstantial evidence behind your assertion. Were you in the room when the statements of intent were being written? Yes, the nuclear issue is definitely a consideration when tackling a nuclear power, but that doesn't mean NATO is acting in those other scenarios simply because these countries are not nuclear powers - there were outside mitigating factors.

As for things like the Falklands War, what has NATO got to do with it simply because the UK is in NATO? This is the point I made earlier, NATO states do not have to be beholden to NATO, they can act independently of NATO. NATO had NOTHING to do with the UK response to the Argentine invasion of the islands, in fact, I don't even see the connection, to be frank.

Firstly, you are deliberately muddying the waters by considering all actions carried out by NATO member states as being NATO ordered, which clearly they are not. Secondly, the nuclear issue obviously informs how NATO will act, but it is not (take note, others) the _only_ driver behind NATO's actions in the past and present, certainly not in this case when the Sec Gen (again, how many times do I have to point this out?!) stated that NATO was not going to provoke a full scale war in Europe.

Obviously the nuclear issue is big and changes the dynamic (I've said this before...) and NATO is right to be cautious regarding Putin's threats of using nuclear weapons in-theatre. What NATO fears right now is a possible incursion into NATO space that would result in war in Europe. Those Baltic State NATO members are probably feeling quite vulnerable right now.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Slightly off topic, this time forty years ago, hundreds of Argentine soldiers, sailors and airmen were mentally preparing themselves for what they thought was their patriotic duty. Operacion Rosario was finally being set in motion...

Back to our regular programming.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> You're STILL misunderstanding the point I'm making! You've got to the point that you are now inadvertently agreeing with me!
> 
> It looks to be that you are deliberately attempting to start an argument, which is nonsense and not necessary. I don't disagree with what you are saying, but what you are saying is NOT counter to the point I was initially making, simply because you* misunderstood *it.



I understand the point you're making. I just don't think it applies in this instance.

I'm not trying to start an argument -- with you, whom I respect -- but I'm saying that _in this instance_ ignoring the nuclear threat is not something anyone in NATO is actually doing; and that is a threat that didn't obtain in any previous NATO engagement. This is clear from public pronouncements from both American and European gov't officials. This makes it entirely different from previous NATO deployments. They had the luxury of ignoring non-existent nuclear threats in other deployments. They do not have that here.

It's the elephant in the room, which wasn't there in Serbia, or Afghanistan, or Libya, and I think 
J
 Jagdflieger
is right in pointing that out.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 31, 2022)

Everyone, please take a deep breath and calm down..

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Everyone, please take a deep breath and calm down..



Yeah, I agree....


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

Not worked up here. <shrug>


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not worked up here. <shrug>

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's the elephant in the room, which wasn't there in Serbia, or Afghanistan, or Libya, and I think
> J
> Jagdflieger
> is right in pointing that out.



Obviously its consequential, but as I've said, it's not the sole driver behind NATO's past actions. He's simplifying the causes of each of these situations with a broad stroke of the brush, hence the "glib" statement. Why wouldn't NATO be cautious about Russia's nuclear weapons? But to assume that NATO acted in previous scenarios simply because they didn't have nuclear weapons (again...) doesn't take so many other mitigating factors into consideration.

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Firstly, you are deliberately muddying the waters by considering all actions carried out by NATO member states as being NATO ordered


If GDR had attacked FRG back in the 70s or 80s, would we have considered it a solo operation? Of course not, we would have taken it as a Warsw Pact action orchestrated by Moscow. Why should we expect NATO to be viewed any differently by those to the east of us?

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## fubar57 (Mar 31, 2022)

​

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Why should we expect NATO to be viewed any differently by those to the east of us?



Context. Context, context, context.

Britain is a member of NATO, Argentina is not, Britain acted to invade the Falklands because it deemed the islands as its own sovereign territory, NOT because it was acting on NATO resolution.

Even East of the wall the word "context" has meaning.


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Even East of the wall the word "context" has meaning.


Only when it suits their purpose.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Only when it suits their purpose.



This I agree with...


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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Britain acted to invade the Falklands because it deemed the islands as its own sovereign territory


The dominant demographic in the Maldives was of Anglo origin and didn't want to become Latin Americans. Their Argentine neighbors, servants, and hired help didn't have any say in the matter.


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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> The dominant demographic in the *Maldives *was of Anglo origin and didn't want to become Latin Americans.



I suspect you mean Malvinas...

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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> I suspect you mean Malvinas...



I'd much prefer to go to the Maldives, though!

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> I suspect you mean Malvinas...


Touche! Don't get old, your memory banks get cross wired.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd much prefer to go to the Maldives, though!



Aaah, yes, the Malvinas! Sun, sand, cocktails and land mines on the beach, and... Penguins????

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## XBe02Drvr (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Aaah, yes, the Malvinas! Sun, sand, cocktails and land mines on the beach, and... Penguins????


Supposed to be great windsurfing country, though.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Obviously its consequential, but as I've said, it's not the sole driver behind NATO's past actions. He's simplifying the causes of each of these situations with a broad stroke of the brush, hence the "glib" statement. Why wouldn't NATO be cautious about Russia's nuclear weapons? But to assume that NATO acted in previous scenarios simply because they didn't have nuclear weapons (again...) doesn't take so many other mitigating factors into consideration.



Right, and this is indeed where we agree. The actions in the past had other positive motivations (stopping genocide in the former Yugoslavia, redressing the attack of 9/11, and so), but in this case there is a negative motivation that simply was not there in those instances -- a nuclear-armed opponent -- that mitigates against NATO action today.

Had any of those other opponents held nukes, you can bet that NATO would have been much less solid in response. Had any of those other powers had the ability to strike NATO countries with a nuclear response, I doubt NATO would have taken the actions it did in fact take.

NATO didn't act only because Libya or Serbia lacked nukes; the motivation was clearly outside that. But had either nation possessed nukes, I'd be willing to bet NATO's reply would have been very different; and I'm willing to bet that it's only Russia's nuclear forces which are holding a NATO response at abeyance today. 

NATO is generally defensive in nature, to be sure. But how willing it is to be active in defense is surely affected by a potential nuclear response. I think it's fair game to point that out.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think it's fair game to point that out.



It is, and I agree, but not without taking the mitigating circumstances into consideration. Not gonna back down on that. It is too simple to make that connection.

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Supposed to be great windsurfing country, though.



Oh heck yeah. Never been, but the winds are pretty ferocious. Unfortunately due to a little war 40 years ago, many of the beaches had obstacles that made such activities a bit more hazardous though. I have read that the land mine issue has almost completely been cleared up - the Argies didn't make maps, apparently...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> It is, and I agree, but not without taking the mitigating circumstances into consideration. Not gonna back down on that. It is too simple to make that connection.



We don't have to agree 100% to agree in broad principle. I get where you're coming from, just wanted to make sure my own point was plain. I'm sorry if it looked like I was trying to pick an argument, I honestly wasn't, I just wasn't sure I had been clear. I think we're both clear about it now?


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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think we're both clear about it now?



Cool dude. I understand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Only when it suits their purpose.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> NATO didn't act only because Libya or Serbia lacked nukes; the motivation was clearly outside that. But had either nation possessed nukes, I'd be willing to bet NATO's reply would have been very different; and I'm willing to bet that it's only Russia's nuclear forces which are holding a NATO response at abeyance today.



I'm not sure I agree with this conclusion. Both Libya and Serbia were engaged in civil wars. If nukes were added to the mix, there's a strong case to be made for earlier, and perhaps more comprehensive (than an air campaign), decisive action to prevent use of the nukes or their capture by "bad guys" (whoever falls into that category as defined by the UN, NATO, the US et al).

Let's say someone tops Putin and Russia descends into civil war. Do we really think NATO will sit on the sidelines and not help to secure the nukes?


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## SaparotRob (Mar 31, 2022)

Would it be NATO or some other organization? NATO might not be the most politic of choice. How was it done last time?

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## hawkeye2an (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Obviously its consequential, but as I've said, it's not the sole driver behind NATO's past actions. He's simplifying the causes of each of these situations with a broad stroke of the brush, hence the "glib" statement. Why wouldn't NATO be cautious about Russia's nuclear weapons? But to assume that NATO acted in previous scenarios simply because they didn't have nuclear weapons (again...) doesn't take so many other mitigating factors into consideration.


Would you two just get a room.....................................................................I mean open a new thread

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## nuuumannn (Mar 31, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Would you two just get a room.....................................................................I mean open a new thread



But we're friends now...  

Thump holds my respect. Always insightful and thoughtful. A true character and he has great taste in music.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm not sure I agree with this conclusion. Both Libya and Serbia were engaged in civil wars. If nukes were added to the mix, there's a strong case to be made for earlier, and perhaps more comprehensive (than an air campaign), decisive action to prevent use of the nukes or their capture by "bad guys" (whoever falls into that category as defined by the UN, NATO, the US et al).
> 
> Let's say someone tops Putin and Russia descends into civil war. Do we really think NATO will sit on the sidelines and not help to secure the nukes?



I don't know that NATO would have much to say about it, if someone had both the weapons and the codes to fire them.

We do know that Putin has that. If he goes down, who's to say who can operate those weapons, and will they?

While the USSR never descended into civil war, it certainly broke apart, and we've spent the last thirty years devoting time and energy to controlling those nukes that were emplaced outside Russia proper, so I'm not sure what NATO could do, if anything, outside of negotiating those weapons into recycling. But I do think the action(s) would be diplomatic rather than militaristic ... at least at first.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> But we're friends now...
> 
> Thump holds my respect. Always insightful and thoughtful. A true character and he has great taste in music.



And likewise, Nuuu[...]man[...]n . Disagreement need not be disagreeable, and I hope we've shown that here. Up the Irons!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We don't have to agree 100% to agree in broad principle. I get where you're coming from, just wanted to make sure my own point was plain. I'm sorry if it looked like I was trying to pick an argument, I honestly wasn't, I just wasn't sure I had been clear. I think we're both clear about it now?





nuuumannn said:


> Cool dude. I understand.





nuuumannn said:


> But we're friends now...
> 
> Thump holds my respect. Always insightful and thoughtful. A true character and he has great taste in music.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 663264

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## swampyankee (Mar 31, 2022)

I think NATO's remit does not include colonial possessions, such as the Falklands or Aruba, but does, probably, include edge cases like Jersey or the Faeroe Islands.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 31, 2022)

So, Northern Ireland is right out?

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## swampyankee (Mar 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> So, Northern Ireland is right out?


Somewhat confused by that statement.


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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, which is a member of the NATO Alliance.

Article 6 includes geographic definition which includes "the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer" as well as "forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer." 

The text of Article 6 also explicitly mentioned "the Algerian Departments of France" as being included, but the North Atlantic Council decided, on January 16, 1963, those territories had ceased to be included since July 3, 1962.

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## Greg Boeser (Mar 31, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Somewhat confused by that statement.


I was referring to Northern Ireland as a colonial possession.

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## buffnut453 (Mar 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I was referring to Northern Ireland as a colonial possession.



But it's not a colonial possession. It's a formal member of the United Kingdom, just like England, Wales, and Scotland. That's what the people of Northern Ireland wanted and why they fought so long against the IRA.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

Can we at least put East LA into that definition?

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## GrauGeist (Mar 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Can we at least put East LA into that definition?


L.A. used to belong to Spain - pretty sure they don't want it back...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Mar 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> L.A. used to belong to Spain - pretty sure they don't want it back...



To paraphrase Sherman, if I owned Hell and Los Angeles, I'd live in Hell and rent Los Angeles out.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 1, 2022)

The Falklands was an economic war over the production of the froth for the top of stout, ale, beer etc anyway.

In other words, a war over Penguins. You boil them up and the white part floats to the top.

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## at6 (Apr 1, 2022)

Poot hog must be getting desperate. World News reported that he just conscripted another 140,000 future corpses.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)

Looks like Ukrainians are getting fiesty. Apparently they struck an oil facility in Russia

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Nice that you have pointed all these things out, but you haven't really done anything except provide circumstantial evidence behind your assertion. Were you in the room when the statements of intent were being written? Yes, the nuclear issue is definitely a consideration when tackling a nuclear power, but that doesn't mean NATO is acting in those other scenarios simply because these countries are not nuclear powers - there were outside mitigating factors.


Do I need to be in the room to know that NATO and the UN have only acted on non nuclear possessing nations - that's fact - if you decide to ignore this - up to you


nuuumannn said:


> As for things like the Falklands War, what has NATO got to do with it simply because the UK is in NATO? This is the point I made earlier, NATO states do not have to be beholden to NATO, they can act independently of NATO. NATO had NOTHING to do with the UK response to the Argentine invasion of the islands, in fact, I don't even see the connection, to be frank.


The Falklands are British territory - as such NATO member Britain was attacked. As such NATO is obliged to aid Britain, however as I pointed out the NATO framework excluded British territories such as the Falklands. I brought in this example to proof that despite the NATO being a defensive organization at that time, it did not stop Britain from taking military action.
As such what is stopping a NATO member from taking action now in the Ukraine/Russia issue - NUKES. If Argentina would have had nukes - you can bet they would have solved the issue by peaceful means. If you remember Thatcher even threatened nuclear retaliation towards Argentinian mainland if the British troopships (passenger-cruisers) and carriers would be attacked.


nuuumannn said:


> Firstly, you are deliberately muddying the waters by considering all actions carried out by NATO member states as being NATO ordered, which clearly they are not. Secondly, the nuclear issue obviously informs how NATO will act, but it is not (take note, others) the _only_ driver behind NATO's actions in the past and present, certainly not in this case when the Sec Gen (again, how many times do I have to point this out?!) stated that NATO was not going to provoke a full scale war in Europe.


I never stated NATO ordered military involvement - but military actions commanded by NATO upon receiving it's orders from their respective governments. You are muddying in this case. And UN resolutions are guided by their respective members governments - who clearly have never taken steps towards attacking a nuclear armed nation. If you can't realize that
and the reasons okay, your problem not mine.


nuuumannn said:


> Obviously the nuclear issue is big and changes the dynamic (I've said this before...) and NATO is right to be cautious regarding Putin's threats of using nuclear weapons in-theatre. What NATO fears right now is a possible incursion into NATO space that would result in war in Europe. Those Baltic State NATO members are probably feeling quite vulnerable right now.


It is not a big change, absolutely not - because NATO has never attacked a nuclear armed nation and never will.
Putin IMHO will not attack the Baltic states - being NATO members and as such profiting from the NATO nuke deterrent.

That is the *prime purpose of NATO *since the late 60's - to *prevent a nuke war* - since every party was and is aware that a conventional war will sooner or later end in nuclear confrontation, and that is exactly as to why NATO has and will never attack a nuke possessing country.
Putin is very well aware of that. However the Ukraine is not a NATO member so Putin believes he can roam around in non NATO countries as much as he wants.
Just as NATO, Putin adheres exactly to the same doctrine - the existence of nukes *will prevent *a direct involvement of NATO, e.g. in the Ukraine conflict.

Back to topic:
That is why I keep repeating and repeating and repeating that economical sanctions are the presently only valid means to cripple Putin's ambitions. Independently of arming the Ukraine to it's teeth, and not fantasizing about possible theoretical military actions by NATO endorsed by the UN.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2022)

*yawn*

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## tomo pauk (Apr 1, 2022)

Noice:

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## tomo pauk (Apr 1, 2022)

Seems like Russians have left Chernobyl and airport at Hostomel.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 1, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Seems like Russians have left Chernobyl and airport at Hostomel.



That's interesting. The Chernobyl site was an ongoing threat as in if it was blown up or something.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 1, 2022)

Something just seems odd on the alleged oil depot attack in Russia. Why would they send a couple of helicoptors at night into Russia to attack instead of lobbing a couple of missiles?

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Something just seems odd on the alleged oil depot attack in Russia. Why would they send a couple of helicoptors at night into Russia to attack instead of lobbing a couple of missiles?


Equipment availability? Target of opportunity?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2022)

I've read that the Ukrainians are very active at night, both with fixed wing and rotary - something that has plagued the Russians from day one.

To compound the Russian's frustration, the Ukraine equipment is hidden during the day and uses roads and such for operations, rarely staying in the same location for very long.

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## Dimlee (Apr 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Some fireworks near Belgorod, Russian Federation.
> 
> 
> Just some accident, right. A cigarette, a short circuit...
> And why do I remember that:



And again. They really need to improve their safety measures. Ban smoking in hazardous areas, keep the fire extinguisher nearby during the welding work...








Russia accuses Ukraine of helicopter strikes on fuel depot in Russian territory | CNN


Russia accused Ukraine of mounting a helicopter attack on a fuel depot inside Russian territory Friday, as footage surfaced of the facility engulfed in flames.




edition.cnn.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Something just seems odd on the alleged oil depot attack in Russia. Why would they send a couple of helicoptors at night into Russia to attack instead of lobbing a couple of missiles?



There could be several reasons -- equipment availability was just mentioned. Maybe the Ukrainians wanted to go against expectations in order to keep the Russian defenses off-balance. Maybe the helo pilots ran out of trucks to shoot up.

In any event, striking at the fuel reserves of an opponent who has already shown slipshod logistical acumen is a good thing. It can help prevent what is obviously a Russian redeployment (rather than a "humanitarian withdrawal") from the northern front to the Donbas. I've read that eight storage tanks of fuel are burning.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 1, 2022)

I love how “Russia” accuses Ukraine of attacking one of their oil depots. As if Ukraine does not have the right to fight back.

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## Dimlee (Apr 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Something just seems odd on the alleged oil depot attack in Russia. Why would they send a couple of helicoptors at night into Russia to attack instead of lobbing a couple of missiles?


What helicopters. Ukraine's MoD just said that Ukraine is not responsible for the safety accidents on the territory of RF.
Moscow has declared it has established absolute air superiority over a month ago.
UFOs disguised as choppers? A flock of birds with self-combustion capability? Asteroid?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I love how “Russia” accuses Ukraine of attacking one of their oil depots. As if Ukraine does not have the right to fight back.



It's fluent "whiny bitch" again.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

Right, the word "accuse" is sorely out of place in describing a war operation.

Here's the tank farm itself after the attack:








... and a short video of the strike itself can been seen here.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2022)

Yep, the schoolyard bully is being a whiney bitch again.

_"I can beat you up all I want but how dare you try and fight back!
It's not fair (said while crying) and I'm going to show my black eye to anyone who'll listen!"_

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## tomo pauk (Apr 1, 2022)

Mi-28 down, rocket hit severing it's spine:

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 1, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Mi-28 down, rocket hit severing it's spine:



If there’s one thing I’m learning from this war’s combat footage is that VVS has taken over.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Yep, the schoolyard bully is being a whiney bitch again.
> 
> _"I can beat you up all I want but how dare you try and fight back!
> It's not fair (said while crying) and I'm going to show my black eye to anyone who'll listen!"_



Hope you haven't trademarked the "whiny bitch" comment because I used it at #3419. It's the most apt description of how Putin and his cronies react whenever anyone disagrees with them. Such childish temper tantrums....but with nukes in the background.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

_India is not fully committed to either side of the war: The world's largest democracy has become more aligned with the U.S. in recent years, but relies on Russian weapons and oil and has yet to embrace Western sanctions.

[...]

In an interview with Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep, Nuland acknowledges that the situation is complicated, especially since nearly all of India's ground force uses Russian weaponry. That dependence on Russia puts India in an awkward position, as the war in Ukraine and international backlash continue.

"I think they are quite uncomfortable, particularly as they see how Russian weapons have performed and the fact that they're likely not going to be a very reliable supplier going forward," Nuland says. "For a long time the U.S. was not willing to supply weapons to India ourselves, so now that has changed and now we are talking about how we help them make that transition."

While India has long been friendly with Russia (and the Soviet Union before that), Nuland says U.S. officials are emphasizing that Russia is increasingly aligned with China — meaning that if India were to come into conflict with China, it can't count on having Russia in its corner._









War in Ukraine live updates: Ukraine won't deny it struck a Russian oil depot


Russia says Ukrainian helicopters struck on Russian soil for the first time since the war began. Ukraine’s defense ministry also won't confirm the attack. Russian troops leaving Chernobyl suffered radiation exposure, Ukraine says.



www.npr.org

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## tomo pauk (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> *India* is not fully committed to either side of the war: *The world's largest democracy*



(my bold; yes, it's a quote from npr.org)
I wonder for how long that farce will be touted as an undeniable truth.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 1, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Mi-28 down, rocket hit severing it's spine:




Scratch another one for the good guys.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> (my bold; yes, it's a quote from npr.org)
> I wonder for how long that farce will be touted as an undeniable truth.



They're a democracy in the sense that a public vote determines who their leaders are.

They're not a very liberal democracy, given their restrictions on a free press, and the favoritism shown to Hindus above other faiths.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _India is not fully committed to either side of the war: The world's largest democracy has become more aligned with the U.S. in recent years, but relies on Russian weapons and oil and has yet to embrace Western sanctions.
> 
> [...]
> 
> ...


I know India has been reliant on Russian weaponry. There are too many jokes to make and I have to run errands.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I know India has been reliant on Russian weaponry. There are too many jokes to make and I have to run errands.



But in seriousness, the Indians have to be worried about their gear now. The Russian equipment being defeated in droves can't be excused as "selling mild-steel tanks to the Iraqis" -- presumably the Russians made their own stuff as best they could.

I think it was 
A
 Admiral Beez
upthread who pointed out that going back 40 years, we haven't seen one war won by Russian equipment that was facing off against Western gear. Of course, we haven't seen much in the way of aerial or naval battles recently, but his point is certainly valid for ground equipment.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

I don't think India's real concern is how to get more Russian equipment. Xi might be rethinking t.o.e. of his forces as well.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's fluent "whiny bitch" again.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hope you haven't trademarked the "whiny bitch" comment because I used it at #3419. It's the most apt description of how Putin and his cronies react whenever anyone disagrees with them. Such childish temper tantrums....but with nukes in the background.


The term "whiney bitch" is a forum exclusive (like Joe's Caidinism), use it freely and as often as needed!

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The term "whiney bitch" is a forum exclusive (like Joe's Caidinism), use it freely and as often as needed!


It's Rob's Caidinism.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It's Rob's Caidinism.


FlyboyJ coined the phrase back in 2018 






Aviation myths that will not die


1. The Tuskagee Airmen never lost a bomber they were escorting. 2. The Stuka was more vulnerable than other Dive Bomber. 3. The Germans called the P-38 the Fork Tailed Devil. That's funny. I have a soft cover book at home about the P-38 titled "the fork tailed devil." Where did that name come...



ww2aircraft.net


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## al49 (Apr 1, 2022)

My view of this war is full with the eyes of little children, that arrived with their moms in a little house made available for them by our church. Do you know what was the first question adults asked just after their arrival: "is it Wi-Fi" operational? Wi-Fi is the only link they have with their fathers and husbands left in Ukraine to fight.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> FlyboyJ coined the phrase back in 2018
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Oh fart! I made that up and used it before I ever knew of the Forum. Curses! Foiled again.

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## GTX (Apr 1, 2022)

Australia to send Bushmasters to Ukraine

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

_
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that two of his country's top security officials had been dismissed from their roles as generals for being "traitors."

"Regarding antiheroes. Now, I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually they will all be punished," Zelensky said in a speech.

"That is why the ex-chief of the Main Department of Internal Security of the Security Service of Ukraine Naumov Andriy Olehovych and the former head of the Office of the Security Service of Ukraine in the Kherson region Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych are no longer generals," he said.

Zelensky did not elaborate on what had led to the two officials being dismissed, though he noted that under the Ukrainian army's disciplinary statute officers who "have not decided where their homeland is, who violate the military oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people as regards the protection of our state, its freedom and independence" would "inevitably be deprived of senior military ranks."
_









Zelensky: Two Ukrainian generals dismissed for being ‘traitors’


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that two of his country’s top security officials had been dismissed from their roles as generals for being “traitors.”…




thehill.com





I wonder what's going on with this?

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## GTX (Apr 1, 2022)

Zelenskyy warns residents to beware of land mines left by Russians creating a 'complete disaster' outside Kyiv


As Russia withdraws some of its ground forces from areas around Kyiv, residents have been told to beware of land mines left around homes, equipment and dead bodies.




www.abc.net.au

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Smells like a false flag to me. Excuse to drag heels in negotiations.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> But in seriousness, the Indians have to be worried about their gear now.


To be fair, China’s kit is mostly knockoffs of Russian kit, so China vs. India is pretty much an equal fight of sh#t weaponry. Though China’s newer tanks might offer an edge. 

Still, I can’t imagine being a Russian arms merchant once this is over.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Australia to send Bushmasters to Ukraine
> 
> View attachment 663328


What happens if Russia shoots down an Australian C-17? There’s no defence alliance.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Still, I can’t imagine being a Russian arms merchant once this is over


I can't imagine being the Russian helicopter crew assigned the suicide mission of blowing up their own tankfarm.
Plausible deniability requires no surviving participants.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What happens if Russia shoots down an Australian C-17? There’s no defence alliance.


Land in Poland, park Bushmasters on Ukraine border with keys in ignition. Done deal. PresQue'Isle, Maine eighty years later.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> To be fair, China’s kit is mostly knockoffs of Russian kit, so China vs. India is pretty much an equal fight of sh#t weaponry.


China's arms industry appears more technically competent than Russia's, and likely less corrupt. Their older "knockoff" weaponry likely has more effective upgrades on it.
And they likely have more up to date doctrine and training, and have been given a preview of the pitfalls to avoid going forward. Spanish Civil War redux.

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## Glider (Apr 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelenskyy warns residents to beware of land mines left by Russians creating a 'complete disaster' outside Kyiv
> 
> 
> As Russia withdraws some of its ground forces from areas around Kyiv, residents have been told to beware of land mines left around homes, equipment and dead bodies.
> ...


To a certain degree the Russians were on a lose lose situation with this. As you would normally expect a target on this importance to have some form of defence even if its just the ability to ensure that radar cover is in place so that aircover can be called at any time.

If they said nothing then thy have to live with the realisation that there own airspace is very insecure and possibly take more damage. 

If they say something, then they are admitting to the whole world just how woeful the Russian air defences are.

They seem to have taken the second option.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> To be fair, China’s kit is mostly knockoffs of Russian kit, so China vs. India is pretty much an equal fight of sh#t weaponry. Though China’s newer tanks might offer an edge.
> 
> Still, I can’t imagine being a Russian arms merchant once this is over.



1) While we haven't seen what Chinese QA/QC standards are for their military hardware, it's hard to imagine they'd be worse than what we're seeing with the Russians. The graft in the latter's manufacturing and maintenance sectors has, according to a couple of articles I've read, played a part in the inability of the gear to keep up on the battlefield, though I can estimate how accurate those claims are. But I do know that the CCP is very intolerant of graft and corruption when it affects state enterprises.

2) If you read the article I linked, you'll see that part of the point of sending American diplomats to India is to hopefully get them to start ordering American equipment. If successful that'd be a win-win, as the Indians will be getting better kit and American industry would fetch further orders.

3) I bet Russian arms-dealers won't have a problem keeping sales to African nations, where the militaries are more for keeping the civilians in line rather than facing first-rate troops from other nations.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> FlyboyJ coined the phrase back in 2018
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Dave, you have no idea how embarrassed I am. I have never taken credit for anyone else's work. As I never actually work that's easy. In all seriousness, I offer a public apology.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> China's arms industry appears more technically competent than Russia's, and likely less corrupt. Their older "knockoff" weaponry likely has more effective upgrades on it.
> And they likely have more up to date doctrine and training, and have been given a preview of the pitfalls to avoid going forward. Spanish Civil War redux.



Not to mention the fact that the Chinese electronics industry has made tremendous strides in the last two decades.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 1, 2022)

What does Ukraine need to raise the siege of Mariupol and push the Russians back into Crimea and as far as possible into/beyond Dombast? See latest map below. This must happen before any ceasefire - that’s where Ukraine’s gas reserves are, for one. The Ukranians have done miracles on defence, but they need a larger force, offensive weaponry, tanks, mobile artillery, logistics and expert generalship to seize and hold territory. Is there an Ukrainian Montgomery, Patton or Guderian? Staying on defence is a losing game.







This website suggests the Ukrainian have lost seventy-nine tanks. It doesn’t say how many they’ve captured intact.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> To a certain degree the Russians were on a lose lose situation with this. As you would normally expect a target on this importance to have some form of defence even if its just the ability to ensure that radar cover is in place so that aircover can be called at any time.



I was discussing this earlier elsewhere. In the video posted upthread, and its accompanying article, the two heloes are said to have flown a low-level profile of 150' AGL or so, which would greatly affect radar tracking. Because the mission was flown at night, the choppers would be hears, but ID/IFF problems might have delayed a Russian AD response.

I don't know that it had no AD, but if it did, that's one possible explanation. Another is that this is indeed a false-flag and so no defensive fire was offered.

I'm still surprised at the lack of point-defense (as opposed to SAMs) we see in the video.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I was discussing this earlier elsewhere. In the video posted upthread, and its accompanying article, the two heloes are said to have flown a low-level profile of 150' AGL or so, which would greatly affect radar tracking. Because the mission was flown at night, the choppers would be hears, but ID/IFF problems might have delayed a Russian AD response.
> 
> I don't know that it had no AD, but if it did, that's one possible explanation. Another is that this is indeed a false-flag and so no defensive fire was offered.
> 
> I'm still surprised at the lack of point-defense (as opposed to SAMs) we see in the video.


Definitely UFOs disguised as choppers, as 

 Dimlee
said. I don't ser any helicopter.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> If they said nothing then thy have to live with the realisation that there own airspace is very insecure and possibly take more damage.
> 
> If they say something, then they are admitting to the whole world just how woeful the Russian air defences are.
> 
> They seem to have taken the second option.


Night vision warfare requires a level of training and competence difficult to achieve and maintain with unmotivated short term conscripts and low level reservists. Night time Nap Of the Earth helicopter ops is pretty difficult and dangerous with such personnel, hence it appears the Ukrainians own the night skies. An area air defense radar not sited on or adjacent to the target facility would be hard put to detect an NOE attack with enough lead time to prevent launch of their stand-off weapons. 5 AM is the low point in human energy and efficiency, even for night shift folks, especially a "scope dope" nearing the end of a long shift. That's when we were buttoning up our planes and towing them to the gate, and every job had to be separately inspected by two supervisors, the offgoing and the oncoming.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Definitely UFOs disguised as choppers, as
> 
> Dimlee
> said. I don't ser any helicopter.



If you check out the video in this Daily Mail article, helicopters can clearly be seen at :06.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If you check out the video in this Daily Mail article, helicopters can clearly be seen at :06.


Nop helos my friend. Clearly UFOs *disguised* as choppers

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## Glider (Apr 1, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Night vision warfare requires a level of training and competence difficult to achieve and maintain with unmotivated short term conscripts and low level reservists. Night time Nap Of the Earth helicopter ops is pretty difficult and dangerous with such personnel, hence it appears the Ukrainians own the night skies. An area air defense radar not sited on or adjacent to the target facility would be hard put to detect an NOE attack with enough lead time to prevent launch of their stand-off weapons. 5 AM is the low point in human energy and efficiency, even for night shift folks, especially a "scope dope" nearing the end of a long shift. That's when we were buttoning up our planes and towing them to the gate, and every job had to be separately inspected by two supervisors, the offgoing and the oncoming.


I don't disagree with what you are saying, but at the end of the day Russia is admitting that its defences are ineffective. They are supposed to have AWAC's and complete control of the air, and now have admitted that the Ukraine can strike from the air, more or less at will, anywhere in the Ukraine and now over Russia itself. 

For a country that purports to be a major power and one that has invested a lot of money and prestige in its AA forces, both ground and air based this is a major humiliation


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Oh fart! I made that up and used it before I ever knew of the Forum. Curses! Foiled again.


No worries - great minds think alike - I think we had a physic connection!

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## SaparotRob (Apr 1, 2022)

There goes my one hope of being a footnote in aviation history.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There goes my one hope of being a footnote in aviation history.


Nope - you're still a living legend as far as I'm concerned!!!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Smells like a false flag to me. Excuse to drag heels in negotiations.



Given their logistical issues and the need to transport thousands of troops from NW of Kiev, around the interior Ukrainian lines, to the Donbas, they could not have picked a worse target for a false flag. Criminy, attack a radio station or TV station, that gives you dramatic audio and/or video too.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Now we have the answer to the age-old question, "Who's a good dog?"

'Cause that's my kinda dog, right there.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> at the end of the day Russia is admitting that its defences are ineffective. They are supposed to have AWAC's and complete control of the air, and now have admitted that the Ukraine can strike from the air, more or less at will, anywhere in the Ukraine and now over Russia itself.


Picking an electronically silent NOE helicopter out of the ground clutter from a high flying AWACS is a pretty tall order, even for an alert and motivated operator. A tired, bored, frustrated operator who hasn't seen any aerial actitivity in a couple weeks of midwatches is not that paragon of efficiency at 5 AM, especially if his world has been too noisy to facilitate daytime sleep.
A few of my flight students were Vietnam vet Army Guard chopper pilots picking up their fixed wing ratings. They would park their choppers at the armory next door and show up in flight gear for a dusk fixed wing lesson, then I would give them a ride over to the armory on the way home and they would "goggle up" and go out to practice night NOE. I got a couple of rides with them, and to the uninitiated, it's scary stuff. A "perishable skill" like carrier landings. Occaisonally they would chat up the AWACS bird doing drug smuggling border patrol overhead for a visibility check. Most of the time if they were below 500 AGL with IFF off, big bird would report them invisible on radar and faint on IR. The chopper guys listened on VHF, but never spoke unless they heard or saw traffic or entered the Control Zone. Used to drive the FAA Flight Service Station guys nuts.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Now we have the answer to the age-old question, "Who's a good dog?"
> 
> 'Cause that's my kinda dog, right there.


What about the "Sniper Cat" in the previous video? My kind of loyal companion. Wish Onyx and Ebony were that blasé about gunfire!

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## Jamoliva (Apr 1, 2022)

Voices from the alternate universe...








HARDtalk - Maria Butina, Member of Russia’s State Duma


Stephen Sackur speaks to pro-Putin member of Russia’s State Duma Maria Butina.




www.bbc.co.uk





If can't open it here's the podcast version: BBC World Service - HARDtalk, Maria Butina: What is Russia achieving in Ukraine?


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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> That is why I keep repeating and repeating and repeating that economical sanctions are the presently only valid means to cripple Putin's ambitions. Independently of arming the Ukraine to it's teeth, and not fantasizing about possible theoretical military actions by NATO endorsed by the UN.



I was gonna reply, but you know what, Dave summed it up better...

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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> To be fair, China’s kit is mostly knockoffs of Russian kit, so China vs. India is pretty much an equal fight of sh#t weaponry.



An easily drawn but inaccurate assessment of Chinese capability. Yes, it makes knock offs of Russian equipment, but they are good knock-offs and to be feared in terms of regional security. What's more, they act fast and have been consistently upgrading their capabilities to match Western armed forces within the last 20 years, and boy, they've made some progress. No other country has developed a Fifth Gen low-observable fighter and put it into service other than the USA. Sure, we don't know the exact capabilities of the J-20, and we know the initial batch are powered by less powerful Lyulka Saturn engines because the intended engine's development is protracted, but it is an impressive achievement.

It has developed its own Fourth Gen fighter, the J-10 in around half the time that France and Europe developed the Rafale and Typhoon, which is still undergoing upgrades and remains a relevant and capable aircraft. This particular example is an early prototype.





Military Museum 03 1

The latest Tu-16 derivative H-6 "God of War" (cool name!) supersonic cruise missile carriers have turbofan engines, modern avionics and advanced phased array radar, a far cry from the Tu-16 of the Cold War.

It would be foolish to underestimate the Chinese in any military scenario. I doubt sincerely they would act as ineffectively as the Russian armed forces has in Ukraine. One thing is for certain, like Western analysts, the Chinese military observers will be watching this action very carefully and they will put the lessons learned into practise in any conflict.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> It would be foolish to underestimate the Chinese in any military scenario. I doubt sincerely they would act as ineffectively as the Russian armed forces has in Ukraine. One thing is for certain, like Western analysts, the Chinese military observers will be watching this action very carefully and they will put the lessons learned into practise in any conflict.


To be sure, yet the Vietnamese would like to remind you that last war the Chinese fought in 1979 was easily as big a disaster for China and the PLA.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> To be sure, yet the Vietnamese would like to remind you that last war the Chinese fought in 1979 was easily as big a disaster for China and the PLA.



Surely you can't be judging a country's military capability by its last loss over 40 years ago? Really?

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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Surely you can't be judging a country's military capability by its last loss over 40 years ago? Really?


It's the only real experience they had in that time frame unless the rumors of near civil war in the PLA before the crushing of Tiananmen Square are true. So, you have to bear it in mind. Perhaps the modern PLA is better, perhaps not. We certainly did not expect the modern Russian army to so utterly underperform the disastrously poor Red Army of Afghanistan after all.


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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Perhaps the modern PLA is better, perhaps not. We certainly did not expect the modern Russian army to so utterly underperform the disastrously poor Red Army of Afghanistan after all.



Yup, and a fool it would be to underestimate China's new capabilities. One of the fundamental tenets of combat is never underestimate your enemy. The Russians (and to be frank the rest of the world didn't hold much on Ukraine doing as they are right now, too) did and look where its getting them.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 1, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Noice:



Whoop! There goes Ukraine's support from the environmentalists.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Whoop! There goes Ukraine's support from the environmentalists.



The Lada remains a popular car among the enthusiast crowd and the type does come with its own deployable "hole-in-the-ozone-layer" so that ship has sailed...









Kyiv, Ukraine - September 30, 2018: Lada Car. Editorial Stock Image - Image of avtovaz, 1960s: 141250224


Kyiv, Ukraine - September 30, 2018: Lada car.. Photo about avtovaz, 1960s, krokus, soviet, kyiv, design, antique, fiat, classic, cars, based, 1970s, moscow, engine, styled - 141250224




www.dreamstime.com


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## nuuumannn (Apr 1, 2022)

On the subject of Ladas in Ukraine...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> On the subject of Ladas in Ukraine...

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 1, 2022)

Jamoliva said:


> Voices from the alternate universe...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


About what you would expect from this source, WOW she has been drinking the Koolaid


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## WARSPITER (Apr 1, 2022)

The Lada Niva 4WD was very advanced for it's time. It was the first to have a rear window demister which
was to stop peoples hands freezing to the window when pushing it to the next service station.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> About what you would expect from this source, WOW she has been drinking the Koolaid



It's obvious she's put forward as a mouthpiece. I'm hearing her out to be fair, but she's clearly spitting Putin-government game.

I really like British interviewers.

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## special ed (Apr 1, 2022)

As far as the "false flag" oil storage raid, one news broadcast showed eight storage tanks burning. A little much for a "false flag".

By the way, a friend sent an E-mail video of a flight of the co-ax rotor attack choppers being eliminated by Stingers, or similar, with only one chopper seeming to get away. It appears three? missiles detonated early just behind the tail rotors requiring a second shot to finish the job. Impressive to me.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 1, 2022)

All six tweets make a very interesting point.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 1, 2022)

"I'm going after your fuel" is always good messaging in wartime. because it's a cut-throat move and demoralizing. But the gallons burned off probably mean more than the messaging. That's fuel that can't be used to _schlep_ troops. 

The Russian conscript already seems demoralized, to judge from results.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 1, 2022)

Looks like much of the world is going to starve.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 1, 2022)

The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine


The 331st Guards Parachute Regiment based in Kostroma, Russia, has lost many soldiers in Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Now we have the answer to the age-old question, "Who's a good dog?"
> 
> 'Cause that's my kinda dog, right there.


The bacon is for the dog, Dawg.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like much of the world is going to starve.



The Ukraine provides a considerable amount produce, but they aren't even in the top ten exporters.

So we're going to be ok.

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## at6 (Apr 2, 2022)

Jamoliva said:


> Voices from the alternate universe...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The skank pig looks and sounds like she's brain damaged from swallowing too many used condoms.


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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> All six tweets make a very interesting point.



Good point, indeed. And I agree with someone who says: Doolittle raild.

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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine provides a considerable amount produce, but they aren't even in the top ten exporters.
> 
> So we're going to be ok.


Depends on the product. Top 1 in sunflower oil exports, top 4-5 in wheat and corn, etc. Some countries in Africa and Asia depended a lot on Ukraine's food supplies. Ironically, the list included China with over 40% of sunflower oil coming from Ukraine before the invasion.
Export prices across the world continue to climb up, in some sectors such as dairy and edible oils, up to 5%-7% per week.

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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

Starstreak - a good start.









UK missile shoots down first Russian helicopter in Ukraine war


Britain’s most advanced portable missile system is thought to have shot down a Russian helicopter in its first use on the Ukrainian battlefield.




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Depends on the product. Top 1 in sunflower oil exports, top 4-5 in wheat and corn, etc. Some countries in Africa and Asia depended a lot on Ukraine's food supplies. Ironically, the list included China with over 40% of sunflower oil coming from Ukraine before the invasion.
> Export prices across the world continue to climb up, in some sectors such as dairy and edible oils, up to 5%-7% per week.


Some of my customers have seen prices up a 40% in grain just the day the war started and after that more rise.

No more chicken coming from Ukrainia so other producers get an avalanche of orders, rising the prices more, already rised by the rise of grains.

High energy and oil prices further hitting producers and the supply chain.

Don't expect lower inflación any time soon in the first world. The developing and third worlds may even have to brace for shortage.

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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like much of the world is going to starve.



Some countries will suffer. And we do know where those countries are.
This is from my last year's investor pitch deck (I'm in the food exports business). The first slide is about food products in general, the second is about proteins.
Life is unfair for the poorer nations. On the other hand, new opportunities for exporters, for example for edible oil producers in Canada.

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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Some of my customers have seen prices up a 40% in gran just the day the war started and after that more rise.
> 
> No more chicken coming from Ukrainia so other producers get an avalanche of orders, rising the prices more, already rised by the rise of grains.
> 
> ...


Exactly. Add to that the deficit of fertilisers...
It's hard to predict the ripple effect. Hopefully, "the invisible hand" and creativity will help to avoid the worst. 
From history: Japan seized natural rubber plantations in WWII and the synthetic rubber industry expanded.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 2, 2022)

_As the chances fade that Russia will decapitate Ukraine’s government and seize the capital, concerns are growing that Moscow could seek to force Kyiv to give up part of its territory to end the five-week war and eke out some form of victory. 

Ukrainian leaders warned of such a possibility this week, saying they will not accept any peace deal that requires ceding land. 

But if the Kremlin succeeds in encircling and defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, the country’s industrial heartland, keeping that territory could become Moscow’s principal demand in negotiations. 

“I see the Russian troops regrouping, reorganizing. I think that they will try to surround the Ukrainian forces quite soon — in the Donbas region in particular,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday. “And then having captured one-third of the land in Ukraine, they will want to negotiate from this … very strong position.” _









As Russian forces move east, Ukraine digs in against losing Donbas


As the chances fade that Russia will decapitate Ukraine’s government and seize the capital, concerns are growing that Moscow could seek to force Kyiv to give up part of its territory to end t…




thehill.com





Zelenskyy is also accusing retreating RF forces of mining and booby-trapping cities and country-side both. Add another war crime to the list.

Also:

_The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday.

A U.S. official, who spoke to the outlet on the condition of anonymity, did not give provide a timeline on the tanks’ transfer, but noted that the movement will happen soon. The official also did not provide details on which countries the U.S. was assisting to move the military vehicles.

The transfer marks the first time in the conflict that the U.S. has assisted directly to transfer military resources to Ukraine and comes in direct response to a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky has asked the West to transfer weapons for weeks, the source told the Times._









US to assist allies moving Soviet tanks to Ukraine: report


The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday. A U.S. …




thehill.com





The Pentagon is also sending an additional $300,000,000 in aid including counter-drone systems, more Switchblades, and more small arms.

The next couple of weeks will show if the Ukrainians can hold out in the Donbas or not. I think the Russians will be aiming for an encirclement battle.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 2, 2022)

Strange how things turn out. Western Australia usually produces about 7 million tons of wheat per season.
The 2021 harvest was however a new record at close to 12 million tons so there is a bit extra available.

Countries such as Egypt need to be catered for this year as wheat from Ukraine and Russia makes up 85% of their
imports. People in Egypt also have a higher intake per capita of wheat than most countries.

I am hoping these requirements can be met or at least substitutes provided.

Most countries are not going to notice much difference and the capability of agricultural producers around the world
is just getting so much better all the time.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

We don't hear about those PAF MiGs anymore. I wonder if they have been dismantled and being trucked into Ukraine.


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## special ed (Apr 2, 2022)

This is the video to go with post 3481




Your browser is not able to display this video.

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## Glider (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> This is the video to go with post 3481
> View attachment 663422


I've been looking at this and finally worked out what it was that for me is missing. Clearly the helicopters are under attack and taking very serious losses, but there doesn't seem to be any defensive measures in the form of chaff or IR decoy flares. They just seem to being forced to take the hits. 
The way the second one suddenly pitched up and gained height makes me think it must have been hit by small arms or LAA hits as that kind of action often happens if the pilot is hit. Hugging the ground would seem to be their best bet but they just carried on at the same level

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _But if the Kremlin succeeds in encircling and defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, the country’s industrial heartland, keeping that territory could become Moscow’s principal demand in negotiations. _


Absolutely that’s the goal. That might have been Plan A or Plan B right from the get go.









Stephens: What if Putin didn't miscalculate?


What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?




www.yahoo.com





_“Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas.”_

Ukraine must push out the Russians from eastern and southern Ukraine. If they don’t, they’ll survive the war but lose the Peace. To do this Ukraine needs renewed offensive capability. They need tanks for starters; a little late but Biden’s making some moves on that. Though I’m not sure why ex-NATO tanks are okay but MiGs are not.









US to assist allies moving Soviet tanks to Ukraine: report


The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday. A U.S. …




thehill.com





But what about mobile artillery, and more air power? Ukraine can’t fight an offensive war with just rifles, MANPATS and willpower.

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## special ed (Apr 2, 2022)

My thought too. No flares, using only darkness and low altitude for defense. What concerned me. was the near misses/early detonations just behind the tails. Was that a problem with the missile or was there some sort of defense used to cause the early explosion? It appears a rapid second shot defeated any such defensive deployment

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> This is the video to go with post 3481
> View attachment 663422


I do hope this is genuine and not another flight sim Ghost of Kiyv moment.

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## special ed (Apr 2, 2022)

If my faulty memory is correct, I remember the Mujahadeen in Afganistan firing on the Hind D with the captured 14.5mm trying to hit the cockpit windows. They knew the round would not penetrate, but the pilot/crew would not stay and fight with the hits appearing on the other side of the glass.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Absolutely that’s the goal. That might have been Plan A or Plan B right from the get go.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think Putin's original goal was to take just the Donbas region. He went in to "reclaim" Ukraine. He used a lot of resources to take Kyiv and that whole area. He was going for the whole enchilada complete with dress uniforms for the victory parade in Kyiv after installing an acceptable government. This new spin that the Donbas region was what he was after all along (that includes the land bridge to occupied Crimea) smacks of Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do that."

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## tomo pauk (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> As far as the "false flag" oil storage raid, one news broadcast showed eight storage tanks burning. A little much for a "false flag".
> 
> By the way, a friend sent an E-mail video of a flight of the co-ax rotor attack choppers being eliminated by Stingers, or similar, with only one chopper seeming to get away. It appears three? missiles detonated early just behind the tail rotors requiring a second shot to finish the job. Impressive to me.



I've just seen your video. Do you perhaps know time and/or location of the clash?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Absolutely that’s the goal. That might have been Plan A or Plan B right from the get go.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If this is true, Putin's even dumber than he appears at this point. The concentration of mass upon an objective is military doctrine for a reason, in that it 1) accomplishes a mission faster and with fewer casualties, and 2) protects one's forces from defeat in detail, which we've seen the Ukrainians having some success with.

Devoting so many forces to what this article is positing as a feint makes no sense when those same forces could have remained in the east and launched an offensive with added punch, from the northeast of Ukraine, on a southerly axis, with the aim of rolling up the Ukrainian eastern front in the Donbas.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

Another Anti-Tank Guided Cat:

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

And another truth in a cartoon...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If this is true, Putin's even dumber than he appears at this point. The concentration of mass upon an objective is military doctrine for a reason, in that it 1) accomplishes a mission faster and with fewer casualties, and 2) protects one's forces from defeat in detail, which we've seen the Ukrainians having some success with.
> 
> Devoting so many forces to what this article is positing as a feint makes no sense when those same forces could have remained in the east and launched an offensive with added punch, from the northeast of Ukraine, on a southerly axis, with the aim of rolling up the Ukrainian eastern front in the Donbas.


You may be right, but the Ukrainians thus far are showing less ability to retake any territory in the south and east. The Russians will be digging in.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Another Anti-Tank Guided Cat:




Is that a MANPCAT?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You may be right, but the Ukrainians thus far are showing less ability to retake any territory in the south and east. The Russians will be digging in.



Sure. As you pointed out, the Ukrainians need offensive potential; they've shown themselves very capable on the defense even on a shoestring. I think the tank-reinforcement being discussed is important, and I hope the suggestion upthread that the Polish Migs disappearing off the media radar is indeed a matter of them being crated and tractored in. Both those additions would help give the Ukrainians offensive potentials they sorely need. Artillery as well is important for a balanced attack.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sure. As you pointed out, the Ukrainians need offensive potential; they've shown themselves very capable on the defense even on a shoestring. I think the tank-reinforcement being discussed is important, and I hope the suggestion upthread that the Polish Migs disappearing off the media radar is indeed a matter of them being crated and tractored in. Both those additions would help give the Ukrainians offensive potentials they sorely need. Artillery as well is important for a balanced attack.


And when American journalists say "tank" they can mean any and all armored fighting vehicles. The German BMP-1's, some T-72's or 2S1 Gvozdika's are all the same to them. If they can get all three from outside sources, so much the better.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> And when American journalists say "tank" they can mean any and all armored fighting vehicles.


As long as the tracked AFVs, like these Ukrainians below can tow artillery, they’ll do.









Kiev Sees Ukraine Truce Holding, Withdraws Heavy Artillery From Front


KIEV — Ukraine announced Thursday that it would begin withdrawing artillery from the frontline with separatist rebels in the east, a move that amounts to recognition that a cease-fire meant to take effect on Feb. 15 is holding at last.




www.themoscowtimes.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 2, 2022)

_
The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday.

A U.S. official, who spoke to the outlet on the condition of anonymity, did not give provide a timeline on the tanks' transfer, but noted that the movement will happen soon. The official also did not provide details on which countries the U.S. was assisting to move the military vehicles.

The transfer marks the first time in the conflict that the U.S. has assisted in directly moving tanks and comes in direct response to a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky has asked the West to transfer weapons for weeks, the source told the Times._









US to assist allies moving Soviet tanks to Ukraine: report


The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday. A U.S. …




thehill.com





And yes, the media here portray all tracked vehicles as tanks, generally, but given that this a Pentagon spokesman, I suspect they actually mean _tanks_.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As long as the tracked AFVs can tow artillery they’ll do.
> 
> View attachment 663458


True, but SPG's like the 600+ 2S1's that Ukraine already fields are much better for the modern battlefield than any towed artillery that is nothing but counterbattery bait. We haven't been hearing much about Ukrainian artillery in general. But also hear little about the fighting in the separatist regions so I'm hoping they're there and pounding the Russian forces in shoot and scoot mode with their 22 kg OF-462Zh HE-Frag 122mm shells.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> This is the video to go with post 3481
> View attachment 663422


Verdict: fake.









FACT CHECK: Does This Video Show Ukraine Shooting Down 4 Russian Helicopters?


The footage comes from an open-world military simulator




checkyourfact.com





I think we owe it to ourselves to try to verify vids purporting to show combat success in Ukraine *before* we post and share. I suggest you tell your source the same.

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## GTX (Apr 2, 2022)

Ukraine invasion: Secret 'punishment from above' drone army taking on Russia


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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Verdict: fake.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which brings up, which videos are valid. 
There are a few sites with promising previews. Some, with strident titles that sorta’ sound like ‘60s left wing slogans, I dismiss immediately. Others that have more sober titles have channel names I just don’t believe. (They might be actually be legit.)
U.S. Defense News is one I’m wary of. There are a few more that I can’t remember at the moment. Does anyone know which these news channels that should be avoided? Besides Dark Skies, Dark Docs, Dark Seas, Dark……


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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Which brings up, which videos are valid.
> There are a few sites with promising previews. Some, with strident titles that sorta’ sound like ‘60s left wing slogans, I dismiss immediately. Others that have more sober titles have channel names I just don’t believe. (They might be actually be legit.)
> U.S. Defense News is one I’m wary of. There are a few more that I can’t remember at the moment. Does anyone know which these news channels that should be avoided? Besides Dark Skies, Dark Docs, Dark Seas, Dark……



Not sure if this is what you want but these are very useful to me.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

That list probably only just scratches the surface. But yes , that’s what I’m looking for. 
Glad Binkov’s Battlegrounds isn’t on the list.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Which brings up, which videos are valid.


If you can‘t verify it through the MSM assume it’s a fake. 

Or at least do your own sniff test, as it took me all of 2 mins to search for and identify the 
S
 special ed
helicopter vid as fake.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Now, you gotta’ know this is coming. 
What’s the MSM? If I knew that, I would have checked that.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Now, you gotta’ this is coming.
> What’s the MSM? If I knew that, I would have checked that.


Mainstream Media. Before they post combat vids they try to verify the truth. 



Often times they call out the fakes.









Ukraine conflict: Further false images shared online


Misleading videos and images continue to appear on social media following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.



www.bbc.co.uk

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That list probably only just scratches the surface. But yes , that’s what I’m looking for.
> Glad Binkov’s Battlegrounds isn’t on the list.


Yeah, I can think of a number of others that should be on the first list but it makes a good starting point.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Any thoughts on US Defense Report? It has a robot voice and I always imagine it’s really a kid living in his folk’s basement


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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Any thoughts on US Defense Report? It has a robot voice and I always imagine it’s really a kid living in his folk’s basement


Do you have a link so I can look into it?


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 2, 2022)

Maybe occupying Chernobyl was not a good idea


Russia has returned the radioactive site to Ukraine after reports claim Russian soldiers were suffering radiation sickness




fortune.com





I read in another article at least one soldier has died of radiation poisoning.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Mainstream Media. Before they post combat vids they try to verify the truth.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That’s pretty much what I do. I try to go with the “Biggies”. DW, BBC, CBC, MSNBC, ABC etc. If the host is obviously one sided, buh-bye.

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## JDCAVE (Apr 2, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> The Lada remains a popular car among the enthusiast crowd and the type does come with its own deployable "hole-in-the-ozone-layer" so that ship has sailed...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I remember the ad on TV in the 1970’s: “How do you like your Lada? I like it just fine!”

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## Dimlee (Apr 2, 2022)

Antonov airport in Gostomel. Destroyed An-225 Mriya in the background.

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## special ed (Apr 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If you can‘t verify it through the MSM assume it’s a fake.
> 
> Or at least do your own sniff test, as it took me all of 2 mins to search for and identify the
> S
> ...


That IS the purpose of sharing. Those with the ability can do the verification. Once again you attack the messenger in stead of the message. After all, that's what recon is about, seeing thru the camo.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> That IS the purpose of sharing. Those with the ability can do the verification. Once again you attack the messenger in stead of the message.


No attack on the messenger intended. Sharing can be in error, but I do denounce those who create this fakery as purveyors of clickbait and propaganda.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 2, 2022)

Really hope these crimes get investigated and that the perpetrators can be brought to justice:









War in Ukraine: Street in Bucha found strewn with dead bodies


A reporter entering Bucha, near Kyiv, counts at least 20 bodies of men, one with his hands tied.



www.bbc.com


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## hawkeye2an (Apr 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Antonov airport in Gostomel. Destroyed An-225 Mriya in the background.



Do you think a tractor can tow the An to Kermit Weeks?

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## wlewisiii (Apr 2, 2022)

An interesting analysis and some good current sit maps.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I remember the ad on TV in the 1970’s: “How do you like your Lada? I like it just fine!”


Sounds like a Lada crap.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2022)

And no love for the Volga or Trabant, it seems...


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## SaparotRob (Apr 2, 2022)

Do you remember Car & Driver magazine's "Save the Trabant" issue? I think they ran a gag Brabant ad in an April issue too.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2022)

If you ever get a chance to visit Bulgaria, particularly on the east coast, I highly recommend the Retro Museum in Varna.

It has perhaps, one of the largest collections of vintage Eastern European autos & vehicles found anywhere.









Retro Museum


In 2015, on the Labour Day - May 1, in Varna opens doors officially an unique for Bulgaria "Retro Museum". The museum includes exhibits from the period 1944-1989, which are telling in artifacts how Bulgarians lived under socialism. Bulgarian cigarettes without filter, Russian...




visit.varna.bg

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 2, 2022)

special ed said:


> My thought too. No flares, using only darkness and low altitude for defense. What concerned me. was the near misses/early detonations just behind the tails. Was that a problem with the missile or was there some sort of defense used to cause the early explosion? It appears a rapid second shot defeated any such defensive deployment



Most manpads and SAMS are not impact detonated. They are proximity weapons that explode before contact and spread shrapnel out that damages the aircraft.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 2, 2022)

Here's more reporting from Bucha....lotsa hardware that will never return to its garrison:









Ukraine war: Bucha street littered with burned-out tanks and corpses


A BBC team witnesses utter devastation in the town of Bucha, after Russian soldiers pulled out.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Here's more reporting from Bucha....lotsa hardware that will never return to its garrison:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 Love this part:
"_Moscow says, without proof or any reliability, that its war aims in central Ukraine have been achieved, and they never included capturing Kyiv._"

Ok then. So what exactly was the objective, to see how badly they could get their ass kicked?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 2, 2022)

Ex-UN prosecutor urges global arrest warrant for Putin


The former chief prosecutor of United Nations war crimes tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda has called for an international arrest warrant to be issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Putin is a war criminal,” Carla Del Ponte told the Swiss newspaper Le Temps in an interview...




www.yahoo.com

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 2, 2022)

Does anyone know if NATO countries are still being supplied with Russian gas and oil? - thanks

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## at6 (Apr 2, 2022)

"Brave" Russian soldiers wantonly killed innocent civilians on their way out. Some even had their hands tied behind their backs and we are supposed to consider the Russian SOBs as Human? Putin should tried as a War Criminal and executed as slowly and painfully as possible. Him and all of his staff.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Does anyone know if NATO countries are still being supplied with Russian gas and oil? - thanks
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


I suppose you meant "Europe" and the answer is pretty much no.

Putin demanded payment in Rubles and the European nations that have a contract with Russian fuel suppliers said that is a breach of contract.

The US and Middle Eastern countries are going to step up and work to provide Europe with Natural Gas and Petrol.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 3, 2022)

......The US and Middle Eastern countries *are going *to step up and work to provide Europe with Natural Gas and Petrol.....

Thanks, so I assume that presently they are still drawing gas and oil from Russia?

Regards
Jagdfieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> ......The US and Middle Eastern countries *are going *to step up and work to provide Europe with Natural Gas and Petrol.....
> 
> Thanks, so I assume that presently they are still drawing gas and oil from Russia?
> 
> ...


They were, but as mentioned, Putin is now demanding payment in Rubles and contract nations are refusing to accept any fuel deliveries, as the change in payment currency is a breach of their terms.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> They were, but as mentioned, Putin is now demanding payment in Rubles and contract nations are refusing to accept any fuel deliveries, as the change in payment currency is a breach of their terms.


Strategically this is a major loss for Russia as they will now have to go cap in hand to other countries to try to get their sales back up.

As long as Ukraine can keep it's own resources for themselves then they score a win as Europe will be happy to deal with them.

All the propaganda Putin can spout will not make up for economic incompetence.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 3, 2022)

Check out the air the tank turret gets

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 3, 2022)



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## pgeno71 (Apr 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> They were, but as mentioned, Putin is now demanding payment in Rubles and contract nations are refusing to accept any fuel deliveries, as the change in payment currency is a breach of their terms.


I don't think that's the case exactly. Putin's demand was rejected for the second time, but I have not seen any news articles saying that governments were refusing deliveries. They were refusing to pay for gas in rubles because it is a breach of contract as you pointed out. As far as I could tell though, the pipelines have been flowing and are continuing to flow. That's why Germany and Austria are planning gas rationing programs in case Russia turns off the tap in response to their refusal to pay in rubles.

Germany: G7 rejects Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles

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## buffnut453 (Apr 3, 2022)

Putin issued his edict about Europe paying for fuel using rubles on, I believe, 29 or 30 March with a deadline of 1 April to comply. Russia has backed off the deadline date and declared that they won’t cut off fuel supplies yet.

Meanwhile, Lithuania has said it won’t take any more fuel from Russia and is encouraging other European countries to follow suit. That’s easier for some than for others. Notably, Germany falls squarely in the “that’s bluddy difficult” category.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 3, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Check out the air the tank turret gets




WOW! That was one BIG BNAG!!!!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

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## ThomasP (Apr 3, 2022)

I do not know if this has been posted, but re the claims that the videos of RF helos being shot down are fake. The CheckYourFact.com site is owned by The Daily Caller which is(was?) owned by Tucker Carlson and another right wing nutcase Neil Patel. I am not saying their statements are untrue, but it is interesting. As Admiral Beez says - we need to check our sources.

"The Daily Caller"

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I do not know if this has been posted, but re the claims that the videos of RF helos being shot down are fake. The CheckYourFact.com site is(was?) owned by The Daily Caller which is owned by Tucker Carlson and another right wing nutcase Neil Patel. I am not saying their statements are untrue, but it is interesting. As Admiral Beez says - we need to check our sources.
> 
> "The Daily Caller"


Good point. My suggestion is that we collectively assume that all vids are likely to be fake until we can find a third party that’s made at least a cursory claim at verification, even if it’s Fox or right wing nutbar affiliated.

No one shows us anything online without an agenda, sometimes it’s produced just for FOMO and clickbait. Sometimes it’s propaganda intended to provoke our outrage or to influence foreign government action. Question everything you see and you’re told. Ask why has a video been produced and posted. The worst part is when these fakes are caught out it reduces the legitimacy of actual footage - think of the damage the guy who posted the flight sim “Ghost of Kiyv“ or the body bags vid did to people’s perception and trust.

Or, just do a sniff test. If four Kamov helicopters are flying at night under fire and not deploying flares or taking any evasive action…. Well, that might be a fake.

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## ThomasP (Apr 3, 2022)

re the US supplying or helping others supply currently combat capable aircraft such as the Mig-29 etal.

The distance from Kyiv to Moscow is only ~540 miles (870 km). A Mig-29 loaded with DTs and a couple of bombs, flying from Antonov Airport, could easily reach Moscow. Whether they could return safely (fuel wise) I do not know.

There is no way (I think) that the US is going to give Ukraine weapons that can accomplish something like that - not unless the theater situation changes in a very significant way.

Even supplying weapons like the US M270 MLRS system, capable of operating at the grand tactical level, is unlikely (I think). Properly targeted, a single MLRS launch vehicle salvo (12 missiles x 644 HE/AT submunitions each = 7728 potential targets hit) is designed to effectively take out a tank battalion (30+ vehicles) and any support vehicles (AA, ICV, soft skins, etc), in tactical road column or off-road tactical formation capable of mutual-support. Because the M77 submunitions are dual purpose (ie HE and AT) any unprotected infantry would be decimated as well.

Maybe non-land attack capable anti-ship weapons like the RGM-84 Harpoon? "The U.S. Delays Delivery of Harpoon Coastal Defense System to Taiwan - Naval Post- Naval News and Information"

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the US supplying or helping others supply currently combat capable aircraft such as the Mig-29 etal.
> 
> The distance from Kyiv to Moscow is only ~540 miles (870 km). A Mig-29 loaded with DTs and a couple of bombs, flying from Antonov Airport, could easily reach Moscow. Whether they could return safely (fuel wise) I do not know.
> 
> ...


I don’t think China is going to be making any moves on Taiwan until years after the dust has settled and things are analyzed in Ukraine.

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## Glider (Apr 3, 2022)

According to our press the UK are trying to get surface to surface anti shipping missiles to Ukraine

I don't know how many we have to start off with but might have some Exocets in store. I have no idea what condition they may be in. Curently we use Harpoon's but not I believe from shore mounts although something might be jury rigged

The Russians are getting agitated abut the shipment of new arms to the Ukraine, complaining that they are 'destabilising the situation'. I find the choice of words interesting, as I thought the whole idea was to destabilise the situation, in the Ukraine's favour

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

at6 said:


> "Brave" Russian soldiers wantonly killed innocent civilians on their way out. Some even had their hands tied behind their backs and we are supposed to consider the Russian SOBs as Human? Putin should tried as a War Criminal and executed as slowly and painfully as possible. Him and all of his staff.


I would prefer to think the Russian troops were so poorly trained and led that this caused this breakdown of humanity. It seems this is business as usual for Russian leadership. 
I’ve met and worked with many Russians. Except for the cool “Boris Badenov“ accents, they’re the same as everybody else. Not a deep cultural psychological analysis of course. 
If militaries are representative of their leadership, that’s where the fault lay. 
It was an American officer (warrant officer?) who intervened in the massacre at My LaI.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I do not know if this has been posted, but re the claims that the videos of RF helos being shot down are fake. The CheckYourFact.com site is owned by The Daily Caller which is(was?) owned by Tucker Carlson and another right wing nutcase Neil Patel. I am not saying their statements are untrue, but it is interesting. As Admiral Beez says - we need to check our sources.
> 
> "The Daily Caller"


The medal is for Jed. A very informative post. Thanks for the information on the Daily Caller.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

_Ukraine’s forces regained full control of the region around capital city Kyiv on Saturday for the first time since Russia invaded the country at the end of February, according to a Ukrainian official.

Hanna Malyar, the deputy minister for Ukraine’s defense ministry, shared the news in a Facebook post. Malyar said Ukrainians should still refrain from returning to their homes, citing ongoing efforts to clear the area, including from leftover mines.

Earlier this week, Russia said it was withdrawing forces from around Kyiv and the city of Chernihiv, but President Biden expressed skepticism about the claim and the Pentagon said Moscow was actually “repositioning” troops._









Ukraine regains full control of Kyiv region for first time since Russian invasion: official


Ukraine’s forces regained full control of the region around capital city Kyiv on Saturday for the first time since Russia invaded the country at the end of February, according to a Ukrainian …




thehill.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2022)

Oh boo effin hoo…









Sanctioned Russian oligarchs break down in tears over their inability to book private jets, reports say


Russian billionaires have had some of their assets seized or frozen, leaving them struggling to adjust to their new life amid sanctions.




www.yahoo.com

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## Dimlee (Apr 3, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Do you think a tractor can tow the An to Kermit Weeks?


I hope that Kermit can arrive in Gostomel one day and apply his energy and creativity in the restoration process.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh boo effin hoo…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I couldn’t agree more. Would that be schadenfreude?

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## Dimlee (Apr 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Love this part:
> "_Moscow says, without proof or any reliability, that its war aims in central Ukraine have been achieved, and they never included capturing Kyiv._"
> 
> Ok then. So what exactly was the objective, to see how badly they could get their ass kicked?


This is so Soviet and so Orwellian...
_"Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia."._

I was 12 y.o. when I discovered the full 2nd edition of the Great Soviet Encyclopedia in the library on board my Dad's ship.
Article "Albania": ...friendly Albania under attack of the fascist Tito's regime of Yugoslavia...
Article "Yugoslavia": ... friendly Yugoslavia had to deal with the threat of Maoist clique in Albania...
WTF? The first volumes of that massive (51 vol.) edition were printed in the Stalin era, when Albania was good and Yugoslavia evil.
The last volumes - at the end of the 1950s after Khruschev befriended Tito but Albania sided with Bejing in the Soviet-China split.

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## Dimlee (Apr 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The distance from Kyiv to Moscow is only ~540 miles (870 km). A Mig-29 loaded with DTs and a couple of bombs, flying from Antonov Airport, could easily reach Moscow. Whether they could return safely (fuel wise) I do not know.


Tochka-U ballistic missile can do this job without a need to return. But Moscow's defences are too strong and the city itself does not represent a valuable target in this war for Ukraine.
As for the other, more feasible targets, Ukrainian forces can attack across the border using the weapons available. And most probably they will attack, notwithstanding what Washington approves or not.

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## Dimlee (Apr 3, 2022)

I don't like to distribute atrocity videos and sorry if I violate the forum's rules. But it makes sense to watch this one at least once.
I'm afraid it's just the beginning of what will be discovered in many other places in future.
Bucha, Kyiv region, Ukraine. All civilians.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

_The Russian military says it has struck an oil processing plant and fuel depots around the strategic Black Sea port of Odesa.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj.-Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Russian ships and aircraft fired missiles on Sunday to strike the facilities, which he said were used to provide fuel to Ukrainian troops near Mykolaiv.

Konashenkov also said Russian strikes destroyed ammunition depots in Kostiantynivka and Khresyshche.

In an audio message posted by Italian news agency ANSA, Italian photographer Carlo Orlandi said Odessa woke to military sirens at 5:45 a.m. Sunday, followed immediately by the sounds of bombs falling on the port city from two aircraft.

He described a column of dark smoke rising from the targets, and flames from the buildings.

"What we can see is a dense screen of dark smoke, and one explosion after the other,″ Orlandi said._









Russia hits an oil processing plant near the port city of Odesa


Meanwhile, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko spoke of "cruel war crimes" by Russians retreating from the nearby city of Bucha.




www.npr.org

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _but President Biden expressed skepticism about the claim and the Pentagon said Moscow was actually “repositioning” troops._


Indeed. It’s rather easy for Ukraine to liberate the areas around Kiyv when the enemy has departed. Instead of celebrating the Ukrainians had better be preparing for a new massive assault from the east.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It was an American officer (warrant officer?) who intervened in the massacre at My LaI.


Hugh Thompson, Jr

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed. It’s rather easy for Ukraine to liberate the areas around Kiyv when the enemy has departed. Instead of celebrating the Ukrainians had better be preparing for a new massive assault from the east.



The statements I've read from Ukrainian officials indicate that this is exactly what they're doing. The Ukrainians also have the benefit of interior lines as well as having surplus troops available due to the withdrawal.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

.. and they got a buttload of replacement tanks. If that’s still a good thing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> .. and they got a buttload of replacement tanks. If that’s still a good thing.



... against Russian conscripts who've been through hell and then ferried around like luggage? I'll go with even semi-obsolete tanks so long as the ground is good and they have proper support.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I couldn’t agree more. Would that be schadenfreude?



Mehr als Schadenfreude!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> .. and they got a buttload of replacement tanks. If that’s still a good thing.


It‘s all sounds just too good to be true for the Ukrainians. The Russians aren’t dumb, and their next move will be interesting.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 3, 2022)

I still don't get the ok to send tanks, not ok to send aircraft.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 3, 2022)

Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot's Front-Line Account Of The Air War Against Russia


A MiG-29 pilot talks tactics and tribulations in the desperate fight to keep Ukraine’s skies free from Russian domination.




www.thedrive.com






Interview with UkrAF pilot "Juice"

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Mehr als Schadenfreude!


Ich verstehe!
I did have to look up the spelling.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I still don't get the ok to send tanks, not ok to send aircraft.


If the Poles has kept their traps shut the MiGs could have been sent. All the Poles had to do was repaint them in Ukrainian colours for Ukraine pilots to fly over the border. But Poland had to play it cute.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the Poles has kept their traps shut the MiGs could have been sent. All the Poles had to do was repaint them in Ukrainian colours for Ukraine pilots to fly over the border. But Poland had to play it cute.



They clearly didn't want to do that going it alone, hence flying them through a US base. If the ruse were to be discovered, I'm not sure -- nor, apparently, were they -- that Article 5 would apply.

I bet they could still be crated up and driven over the frontier.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

And some Super Hornet and/or Viper instructions. Something to read in the waiting room. 🙂

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And some Super Hornet and/or Viper instructions. Something to read in the waiting room. 🙂



I'd trade MiG-29s for F-16s any day of the week, and twice on Sundays. A bit of training time, to be sure, but worth it.

ETA: I just remembered that today's a Sunday.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They clearly didn't want to do that going it alone, hence flying them through a US base.


I think the Poles wanted their replacement F-16s first.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

I forgot about that bit of fine print. I'm sure that could've been discussed, and buried, with the rest of all the diplomatic chatter.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Poles wanted their replacement F-16s first.


Those MiG29s aren't currently operational for Poland, so don't represent a reduction in active force. Paint them blue and yellow, tow them to the border, and leave the keys in the ignition. Oh, and give "Juice" a call while you're at it.

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## J_P_C (Apr 3, 2022)

special ed said:


> My thought too. No flares, using only darkness and low altitude for defense. What concerned me. was the near misses/early detonations just behind the tails. Was that a problem with the missile or was there some sort of defense used to cause the early explosion? It appears a rapid second shot defeated any such defensive deployment


microwave jammer Lipa/Ispanka - but it does not worked too well - considering speed of missiles and effect it wasn't classic MANPADS - anyway freaking effective

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 3, 2022)

This is my wife french bulldog. Due to its combative spirit, I'm thinking of naming him the Ghost of Kyiv, as an ukrainian bulldog.

Slava Ukrainia!






Your browser is not able to display this video.

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 3, 2022)

"JUICE"

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

The bacon is for the dog, Dawg.


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## swampyankee (Apr 3, 2022)

There are reports that Russian forces have left behind decapitated civilians and tortured children in their latest withdrawal. Alas, powerful enough countries are immune to war crime tribunals.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 3, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Do you think a tractor can tow the An to Kermit Weeks?



On a New Zealand forum, there's talk of sending it to Pioneer or Avspecs at Ardmore, purveyors of fine P-40 and de Havilland Mosquito restorations... 



GrauGeist said:


> And no love for the Volga or Trabant, it seems...



I almost bought a Trabbi when I was dating an East German girl in my 20s. Her cousin in Dresden had one and was gonna sell it to us for 300 deutschmarks. We were thinking of buying it and driving it back to the UK, but to get it insured was more than the car was worth.





Europe 301

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## MiTasol (Apr 3, 2022)

I was asked if I had seen the latest John Deere ad on youtube so went looking. Could not find it but enjoyed some of the footage


https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=john+deere+tank+ukraine


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Poles wanted their replacement F-16s first.



My reading indicates that it was scuppered by American officials. Given reasons include the undesirability of flying them from a NATO base as Poland suggested, as well as the idea of flying NATO aid directly into contested airspace.









Fact check: US rejected Polish plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine


Polish officials announced a plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine through a U.S. base without consulting the U.S. The U.S. won't participate.



www.usatoday.com

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## nuuumannn (Apr 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Love this part:
> "_Moscow says, without proof or any reliability, that its war aims in central Ukraine have been achieved, and they never included capturing Kyiv._"



Wow. Nothing like shifting the goalposts to declare mission completion...

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Does anyone know if NATO countries are still being supplied with Russian gas and oil? - thanks
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



They are. Disentangling Europe from Russian oil & gas imports will take a long time.

I think only the US and UK (and maybe Canada) have enacted/introduced Russian oil & gas embargoes. Most other NATO states are seeking alternative sources (primarily Middle East and Nigeria), but getting those contracts going and then arranging export/import is not something that happens overnight. Think months, rather than days or weeks.

Russian oil exports are already starting to fall precipitously - it looks like March exports will be down by about a third compared to the average of the previous 12 months. Russia exported an average of 4.4 million barrels per day in 2021, but this looks likely to drop to about 3 million barrels for March (and probably for April too). 

There's a couple of flies in the sanctions ointment though - India and China. Indian oil buyers are snapping up Russian crude at record discounts - reportedly $25-30 a barrel below pre-war market levels. India imported 6 million barrels from Russian in the first three weeks of March, or about half of what it imported from Russian in all of 2021. 

China has also started to buy more Russian oil and gas, although there are a couple of things that are keeping Chinese buyers from greater imports. Russia want to be paid in Rubles, China wants to pay in Yuan. Which means they'll probably both have to do the exchanges in USD or EUR.

Medium term, you'll see most of Western Europe cut Russia out of its energy mix. Only problem is that they then have to do business with states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 3, 2022)

I'm thinking it'll be in yuan. 

What's the tallest building in Moscow?
FSB headquarters. You can see Siberia from the basement.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> FSB headquarters. You can see Siberia from the basement.



Lubyanka. "When you go to visit Lubyanka, you never leave Lubyanka again..."

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 3, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Lubyanka. "When you go to visit Lubyanka, you never leave Lubyanka again..."


"You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave."
Welcome to the Hotel Lubyanka.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 3, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave."
> Welcome to the Hotel Lubyanka.



lol, Buff and I addressed something quite similar with the American who defected to Belorus.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 3, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I think only the US and UK (and maybe Canada) have enacted/introduced Russian oil & gas embargoes.



Canada hasn't imported Russian crude oil since 2019 and so we were able to "boldly" declare a ban on imports on Feb 28.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...I'd trade MiG-29s for F-16s any day of the week.....


 - really??

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> - really??
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


If an F-16 stays above 200mph in a confrontation with a MiG-29, the MiG hasn't got a chance.

Think of the days when the Allies confronted the A6M or KI-43. If you slowed down to fight them, then you're doing so on their terms and you've just sealed your fate.
Keep your speed up and force them to fight on your terms, they're now in trouble.

We can get an authority in here to give better details, though - oh 

 BiffF15
would you mind weighing in on this?

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## nuuumannn (Apr 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> We can get an authority in here to give better details, though - oh
> 
> BiffF15
> would you mind weighing in on this?



I'm damned if I can find it, but there was a discussion about this recently, and a link was posted about US pilots impressions of flying German MiG-29s. A good overall perspective and the differences were as much about ideologies and processes as they were about capabilities of the aircraft of the respective sides.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 3, 2022)

Aha! Found it.









How To Win In A Dogfight: Stories From A Pilot Who Flew F-16s And MiGs


Lt. Col. Fred "Spanky" Clifton is one of the most experienced aggressor pilots ever, having flown the F-15, F-5, F-16 and the notorious MiG-29. He's been in dogfights with pretty much every fighter out there and is a graduate of the prestigious Fighter Weapons School. Now he's here to share his...




jalopnik.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 4, 2022)

_"Overall, the MiG-29 was/is not the 10 foot tall monster that was postulated during the Cold War. It's a good airplane, just not much of a fighter when compared to the West's 4th​-generation fighters."_

A contributor on MiGFlug put together a tally board for modern fighters that seen combat. I cant 100% verify accuracy but from what I seen, it looks pretty good. The F-16's air to air combat record for all operators is 76 kills, 2 losses, the US alone had 42-0. The MiG 29 is shown as 6-10. 5 shot down over Iraq, 6 over Kosovo, one by the USAF and one by the RNLAF . There's a lot of consideration that has to be applied here, but if this is half accurate, the MiG-29 doesn't have a great combat record.

Here's another piece about F-16s being compared to MiG-29s









F-16 Vs MiG-29: when the mighty Viper dogfighted with the Fulcrum for the first time - The Aviation Geek Club


F-16 Vs MiG-29: when the mighty Viper dogfighted with the Fulcrum for the first time




theaviationgeekclub.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Canada hasn't imported Russian crude oil since 2019 and so we were able to "boldly" declare a ban on imports on Feb 28.



My god, the sacrifices y'all are making for the Cause!

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## nuuumannn (Apr 4, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Here's another piece about F-16s being compared to MiG-29s



That's good stuff, Joe. Lots of good snippets of data there. It confirms the statements about Russian aircraft and their situational awareness, which is roundly criticised by Western pilots looking at Soviet/Russian aircraft. The pilot seems to be supplied with just enough information to fly the aircraft and deploy the weapons. Visibility from Soviet/Russian aircraft cockpits is generally poorer, too.

I've been doing some reading about the First Gen Harrier compared to the Yak-38 and the former was a far more advanced machine avionics wise in the information provided to the pilot. It had a pre-programmable inertial nav-attack system (Ferranti INAS), head up display, one of the first single-seater attack aircraft to be so fitted, and moving map display connected to the INAS, which in practise no one used, apparently, but the Yak pilots had nothing like these things in their cockpit. These things also made the Harrier quite expensive to buy...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> - really??
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



Yes, really. The onboard avionics of the F-16 are more independent of ground direction, implying fewer support personnel and less infrastructure for command & control. 

The -16 seems to have better weapons available for air-to-air (four AMRAAMs vs 2 Alamos for the -29 for medium range, 4 AIM-9s vs 6 Archers for short-range work), and is more capable in CAS, carrying a broad variety of PGMs.

It's also data-link compatible with NATO AWACs craft, which I'm not sure the Polish -29s are up-to-date on given that they haven't seen much recent use.

The supply of spare parts is also much more reliable, especially given current affairs, meaning that the F16s will probably spend more time actually flying.

So yeah, I'd gladly make that swap if I were in charge of the PAF.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 4, 2022)

Fun bit of trivia:
The "Viper" nickname for the F-16 came from the Sci-Fi TV series "Battlestar Galactica" and it's main fighter of the good guys, the Colonial Viper.

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## J_P_C (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, really. The onboard avionics of the F-16 are more independent of ground direction, implying fewer support personnel and less infrastructure for command & control.
> 
> The -16 seems to have better weapons available for air-to-air (four AMRAAMs vs 2 Alamos for the -29 for medium range, 4 AIM-9s vs 6 Archers for short-range work), and is more capable in CAS, carrying a broad variety of PGMs.
> 
> ...


i tend to agree - you are reciving reliably any needed spares ... 8 months from ordering date

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Fun bit of trivia:
> The "Viper" nickname for the F-16 came from the Sci-Fi TV series "Battlestar Galactica" and it's main fighter of the good guys, the Colonial Viper.



It looks like a pissed-off snake anyway, raising up and about to bite.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 4, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> They are. Disentangling Europe from Russian oil & gas imports will take a long time.


Canada has more natural gas than our tiny population could ever need. This presents an excellent opportunity for the development of LNG infrastructure on both sides of the Atlantic. 









LNG project in Canada’s east could be sped up to supply Europe - BNN Bloomberg


The company behind a proposed liquefied natural gas project off Newfoundland’s coast could push forward its schedule after the Ukraine crises left Europe scrambling to find alternatives to Russian supplies.




www.bnnbloomberg.ca





Plus the Germans must return to nuclear power generation - wind/tidal and solar power can help too.









Nuclear power in Germany - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





I expect in ten years Europe’s energy sources will be quite different, much to Russia‘s detriment. And shame on Gerrard Schroeder for beholding his country and its energy needs to Putin.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It looks like a pissed-off snake anyway, raising up and about to bite.


Personally, I think "Raider" is a better name...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Personally, I think "Raider" is a better name...
> 
> View attachment 663638



It always cracks me up how the 70s sci-fi space fighters all seem to have air inlets. The little one in the foreground looks like a MiG-21 with a bad case of blueballs, to me, lol.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i tend to agree - you are reciving reliably any needed spares ... 8 months from ordering date


That's what goody lockers are for. Deployed at sea with a high sortie rate commitment and infrequent UNREPS, they're your survival tool.

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## J_P_C (Apr 4, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> That's what goody lockers are for. Deployed at sea with a high sortie rate commitment and infrequent UNREPS, they're your survival tool.


wow!...do you have lockers filled with multiple 100k USD worth spares inside? in mine you may find just lockwire, gaskets, washers, bolts and nuts... this is difference between US and remaining part of the world...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> That's what goody lockers are for. Deployed at sea with a high sortie rate commitment and infrequent UNREPS, they're your survival tool.



I reckon it's a hell of a lot easier to source F-16 parts even without that sort of investment, especially when we're asking Russia for parts to repair airplanes flying against them. NATO builds the parts in Norway and Holland, no need for stores-ships, no need to beg parts from a Russian government we're fighting to repair the -29s, and the Ukrainians can either fly or cannibalize them as they see fit.

That alone makes trading -29s for -16s look nice. The goddamned F-16s can actually fly? And we can resupply? Sign me up! Give the MiGs to the Ukrainians, backfill with F-16s, it's all good.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> wow!...do you have lockers filled with multiple 100k USD worth spares inside?


If you have a high sortie rate commitment, such as maintaining a no-fly zone or a full time BARCAP, and you're out of COD range, and the replenishment ships are few and far between, your aviation storekeepers have to get creative. Such as removing a component that still has some life left on it, replacing it with a new one from your latest UNREP, logging the old one as "timed out, discarded", and sticking it in the goody locker for future emergencies. It's now "off the books" and available to bail you out if your "official" stock of spares is depleted and you have to meet the next flight ops cycle. If you're deploying to some godforsaken corner of the world you're going to have to start building up your goody locker about as soon as you weigh anchor. This practice drives stateside bean counters bonkers, and is a court martial offense, but when you're on the bitter end of the chain it keeps the birds in the air. Rare is the squadron Maintenance Officer, Ops Officer, or CO who will write you up for such an offense, as their asses are on the line if your squadron can't meet its commitments.

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## J_P_C (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I reckon it's a hell of a lot easier to source F-16 parts even without that sort of investment, especially when we're asking Russia for parts to repair airplanes flying against them. NATO builds the parts in Norway and Holland, no need for stores-ships, no need to beg parts from a Russian government we're fighting to repair the -29s, and the Ukrainians can either fly or cannibalize them as they see fit.
> 
> That alone makes trading -29s for -16s look nice. The goddamned F-16s can actually fly? And we can resupply? Sign me up! Give the MiGs to the Ukrainians, backfill with F-16s, it's all good.


i think PAF was and is fully committed to such trade and removing all MIG and Su from inventory - unfortunately in this case politicians are making decisions not soldiers - i think continuation of discussion in this matter is somehow pointless.

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## MIflyer (Apr 4, 2022)

From Avweb:

"It's just one plane but Ukrainian forces quickly let the world know that they had shot down one of Russia's most capable aircraft Sunday. A video and photos posted online Sunday showed an Su-35 diving vertically before pancaking in the Kharkiv region. Various sources confirmed that photos showed the wreck of an Su-35, which is considered Russia's most elite and modern platform. It entered full service in 2018."

"Like the F-22, the Su-35 has thrust vectoring engines making it very maneuverable. It also capable of super cruise. It's a remake of the 1980s Su-27 and is worth about $50 million. The plane in Ukraine was shot down by a ground-air missile and was recognizable after crashing in what appears to be a cultivated field. The pilot ejected and was captured by Ukrainian forces. Although there have been reports of dozens of Russian aircraft shot down by the Ukrainians, only 19 kills have been confirmed."

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## nuuumannn (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It always cracks me up how the 70s sci-fi space fighters all seem to have air inlets. The little one in the foreground looks like a MiG-21 with a bad case of blueballs, to me, lol.



I always thought it weird how the Cylon Raiders went into battle with three Cylons on board... The Boulton Paul Defiant of sci-fi...

Come to think of it...









Y-wing Starfighter


The Y-wing is a workhorse starfighter has been in use since the Clone Wars. Used for dogfights and for bombing runs against capital ships and ground targets, Y-wings are often overshadowed by newer models such as the X-wing and the A-wing. But the Y-wing's historical importance is remarkable...




www.starwars.com





It's even got a traversing gun behind the pilot.

Carry on...

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, really. The onboard avionics of the F-16 are more independent of ground direction, implying fewer support personnel and less infrastructure for command & control.
> 
> The -16 seems to have better weapons available for air-to-air (four AMRAAMs vs 2 Alamos for the -29 for medium range, 4 AIM-9s vs 6 Archers for short-range work), and is more capable in CAS, carrying a broad variety of PGMs.
> 
> ...


_...I'd trade MiG-29s for F-16s any day of the week..... _

Okay, okay, I had misunderstood you for saying that you would rather have a MiG 29, then an F-16. my bad, 
I stand correted and we are totally in agreement

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## wlewisiii (Apr 4, 2022)

Russian State Media is hard at work making sure the Russian people fully accept Moscow's real desired endgame: Finishing the genocide started in 32 ~ 33 by Stalin with the Holodomor:

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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Aha! Found it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



My first BFM with a MiG-29 was against Spanky. More later, I have to do a Nassau turn…

Work!😏

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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> My first BFM with a MiG-29 was against Spanky. More later, I have to do a Nassau turn…
> 
> Work!😏


Spanky on my first Fulcrum BFM.

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## Denniss (Apr 4, 2022)

flying a german MiG-29 ?
Or was it so new in US service they forgot to remove german tactical numbers?
According to a site this a/c should be #4109 in Poland now

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Spanky on my first Fulcrum BFM.



A Luftwaffe one. Nice

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

Russia says footage in Ukraine's Bucha was 'ordered' to blame Russia


Zakharova said the immediate Western outcry over the images of dead civilians indicated the story had been part of a plan to sully Russia's reputation. "In this case, it seems to me that the fact that these statements (about Russia) were made in the first minutes after these materials appeared...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

Donbas Conscripts Given Guns From 1800s and Forced to Drink Water From Ponds Infested With Dead Frogs


Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesSome conscripts to the Russian war effort from the Donbas region are turning on their commanders and refusing to fight on, after being handed antiquated rifles designed in the 19th century, and forced to drink from ponds littered with...




www.yahoo.com

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 4, 2022)

Denniss said:


> flying a german MiG-29 ?


The Luftwaffe had taken over the ex. NVA MiG 29's, so Luftwaffe decals and numbers


Denniss said:


> Or was it so new in US service they forgot to remove german tactical numbers?


It was never in US service - the US Major was invited to evaluate the Luftwaffe owned MiG 29's


Denniss said:


> According to a site this a/c should be #4109 in Poland now


Could very well be, since all remaining Luftwaffe MiG 29's were handed over to the Polish air-force in 2004

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## wlewisiii (Apr 4, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i think PAF was and is fully committed to such trade and removing all MIG and Su from inventory - unfortunately in this case politicians are making decisions not soldiers - i think continuation of discussion in this matter is somehow pointless.



It's all chin-wagging over something that just isn't happening.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia says footage in Ukraine's Bucha was 'ordered' to blame Russia
> 
> 
> Zakharova said the immediate Western outcry over the images of dead civilians indicated the story had been part of a plan to sully Russia's reputation. "In this case, it seems to me that the fact that these statements (about Russia) were made in the first minutes after these materials appeared...
> ...


There's the whiney bitch again...

They claim they have have not killed a single civilian and all civilian deaths are "staged" by Ukraine.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It was never in US service - the US Major was invited to evaluate the Luftwaffe owned MiG 29's


A number of MiG-29s were purchased by the US from Moldova. At least one was operated by the USAF for test purposes. At least 3 are operated by private individuals.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 4, 2022)

A lot to read through in this text but it's the first comprehensive study I've seen of Russian and Ukrainian materiel losses based on videos and photographic evidence. The current running tally is that Russia lost 2,406 pieces of military equipment – including tanks, armoured vehicles and military aircraft - compared with 677 losses for Ukraine. Now, Russia is much better able to swallow those losses than is Ukraine....but the disparity is still telling. Here's the analysis based on video and photographic evidence:









Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine







www.oryxspioenkop.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 4, 2022)

When they say "Russia lost equipment", I'm assuming that they're including equipment apropiated by the Tractor Brigade, too.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When they say "Russia lost equipment", I'm assuming that they're including equipment apropiated by the Tractor Brigade, too.



Actually, I suspect not. Equipment that can still be dragged around can be altered to make it look sufficiently different that double counting may occur. I believe the study is only based on destroyed equipment. Happy to be proven wrong, though.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

_
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters.

The new accounts of untrained and ill-equipped conscripts being deployed are a fresh indication of how stretched the military resources at the Kremlin's disposal are, over a month into a war that has seen Moscow's forces hobbled by logistical problems and held up by fierce Ukrainian resistance.

One of the people, a student conscripted in late February, said a fellow fighter told him to prepare to repel a close-quarter attack by Ukrainian forces in southwest Donbas but "I don't even know how to fire an automatic weapon."

The student and his unit fired back and evaded capture, but he was injured in a later battle. He did not say when the fighting took place.

While some information indicating poor conditions and morale among Donbas conscripts has emerged in social media and some local media outlets, Reuters was able to assemble one of the most comprehensive pictures to date.

Besides the student draftee, Reuters spoke to three wives of conscripts who have mobile phone contact with their partners, one acquaintance of a draftee, and one source close to the pro-Russian separatist leadership who is helping to organize supplies for the Donbas armed forces.

[...]

Several Donbas draftees have been issued with a rifle called a Mosin, which was developed in the late 19th century and went out of production decades ago, according to three people who saw conscripts from the separatist region using the weapon. Images shared on social media, that Reuters has not been able to verify independently, also showed Donbas fighters with Mosin rifles.

The student said he was forced to drink water from a fetid pond because of lack of supplies. Two other sources in contact with draftees also told Reuters the men had to drink untreated water.

[...]

After being pushed to the front line near the port of Mariupol -- scene of the heaviest fighting in the war -- a group of about 135 Donbas conscripts laid down their arms and refused to fight on, according to Veronika, the partner of a conscript, who said her husband was among them. Marina, partner of another conscript, said she had been in contact with a friend who was part of the same group.

[...]

None of the five draftees had prior military experience or training, and four of the five were given no training before they were sent into combat, according to the injured draftee, the three wives of conscripted men, and the acquaintance.

[...]

All the accounts gathered by Reuters mentioned an acute shortage of supplies. The sources described little or no safe drinking water, field rations for one man being shared among several, and units having to scavenge food.

"We drank water with dead frogs in it," said the student conscript.

"Supplies for the soldiers right now are a disaster," said the source close to the Donetsk separatist leadership, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
_









Conscripts sent to fight by pro-Russia Donbas get little training, old rifles, poor supplies


Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters.




www.reuters.com





This is the military machine we're supposed to be afraid of.

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## ThomasP (Apr 4, 2022)

Hey Dimlee,

re my post#3558:

". . .
The distance from Kyiv to Moscow is only ~540 miles (870 km). A Mig-29 loaded with DTs and a couple of bombs, flying from Antonov Airport, could easily reach Moscow. Whether they could return safely (fuel wise) I do not know.

There is no way (I think) that the US is going to give Ukraine weapons that can accomplish something like that - not unless the theater situation changes in a very significant way. . ."

and your post#3568:

"Tochka-U ballistic missile can do this job without a need to return. But Moscow's defences are too strong and the city itself does not represent a valuable target in this war for Ukraine.
As for the other, more feasible targets, Ukrainian forces can attack across the border using the weapons available. And most probably they will attack, notwithstanding what Washington approves or not."

Moscow was just an example of what could be attacked. Imagine if it was . . . what would be the fallout? (no pun intended)

Yes, the Ukraine could attack Moscow (or some other city of their choice) with what it has now. Or they could use their longer range weapons and aircraft to attack purely military targets inside of Russia, perhaps inside of cities. And no, they do not need the permission of the US or NATO or anybody else. But what would the fallout be?

Why not have the US send cruise missiles to the Ukrainians? The US could send a thousand BGM-109 TLAM Tomahawk cruise missiles (with single or submunition warheads) to Ukraine. The operators (though not the maintenance crews) could be trained in 3-4 days. They could decimate the assembly and supply areas in Russia out to a radius of ~690 miles (1100 km) from the launch point, or destroy aircraft and airfield faciities within the same range. What would the fallout be?

The Ukrainians could use the weapons already in their possession (many of which were sold to them by, or inherited from, the Russians) to attack targets inside of Russia - but the Russians will not be able to blame NATO or the US. IF the Ukrainians attack targets inside of Russia it will work to the advantage of the Russian propaganda machine, at least as far as generating resentment, fear, and anger, in the Russian people. If they were to attack non-military targets (even by mistake) the propaganda effects would be even worse.

I do not know if most of you have noticed, but the Ukrainians are still flatly denying responsibility for the attack on the oil depot in Belgorad, which is 22 miles (35 km) inside Russia. So either it was a false flag job by the Russians, or an attack by unhappy Russian troops, or an unauthorized mission by the Ukrainian forces, or an authorized mission being denied by the Ukrainians. Interesting.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 4, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> A number of MiG-29s were purchased by the US from Moldova. At least one was operated by the USAF for test purposes. At least 3 are operated by private individuals.


 I am aware of that - but they are not in service as such e.g. like the MiG 29's in the Luftwaffe.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## ThomasP (Apr 4, 2022)

On a lighter note. When I read about the Russian troops in Chernobyl not being aware of the disaster there, my immediate thought was "seriously?". But then I thought "it did happen over 35 years ago" (26 April 1986). Then I thought "sigh . . . I am getting old". I do not know what the age spread is in the Russian ground forces, but for the US only ~20% of our active military (ie not National Guard or Inactive Reserve) were born by 1986, and less than 2% were 18 years of age at the time.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am aware of that - but they are not in service as such e.g. like the MiG 29's in the Luftwaffe.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



You need to do some homework. Search RedEagles and or Constant Peg.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> A number of MiG-29s were purchased by the US from Moldova. At least one was operated by the USAF for test purposes. At least 3 are operated by private individuals.


Just wondering. What would happen if those 3 individuals were to donate their MiGs to Ukraine? 
I know it ain’t happening but I was wondering about legal and international implications of such an event. 
A what if.


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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

These shots were taken at Key West. We fought Top Gun Hornets and MiG-29s. One of my two top TDYs ever. The Germans were world class good guys, and we had a blast. Many brain cells were consumed and no alcohol was hurt…

I took the first shot after doing ACM. The second shot was taken by Sgt Withers, of which another was on the cover of the Air Force magazine. We were flying over Ft Jackson, located about 270/60 off NAS Key West tacan.

Here is yours truly on the cover of the Rolling Stone, okay just the USAF magazine…

And I did buy five copies for my mother.









November 2002 | Air & Space Forces Magazine







www.airforcemag.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Donbas Conscripts Given Guns From 1800s and Forced to Drink Water From Ponds Infested With Dead Frogs
> 
> 
> Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesSome conscripts to the Russian war effort from the Donbas region are turning on their commanders and refusing to fight on, after being handed antiquated rifles designed in the 19th century, and forced to drink from ponds littered with...
> ...


I guess ACTUAL Russian occupation of the Donbas region isn’t the “kumbaya moment“ the separatists were expecting.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

So, anything new going on with the separatists now?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Apr 4, 2022)

First Australian armoured vehicles bound for Ukraine painted and ready to go


Four ADF Bushmaster vehicles are hastily repainted and modified so they can be flown to Europe, after a direct public request for them from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.




www.abc.net.au

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## special ed (Apr 4, 2022)

The Mosin-Nagant model 1891 is a bolt action 7.62 rifle, arsenal upgraded to "91/30" in 1930. It was the main WW2 battle rifle. It is a collector arm in this country.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

special ed said:


> The Mosin-Nagant model 1891 is a bolt action 7.62 rifle, arsenal upgraded to "91/30" in 1930. It was the main WW2 battle rifle. It is a collector arm in this country.



And a very cheap one at that.

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## GTX (Apr 4, 2022)

Zelenskyy visits Bucha as Russia insists 'not a single local person' suffered under its occupation


As Joe Biden calls for a war crimes trial to be actioned against Vladimir Putin over alleged atrocities by Russia in Ukraine, accusations arise that Russia has also broken several Geneva Conventions.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And a very cheap one at that.


Used to own one. Upgraded to an AK-47 instead. My shoulder is much happier

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## Dimlee (Apr 4, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Russian State Media is hard at work making sure the Russian people fully accept Moscow's real desired endgame: Finishing the genocide started in 32 ~ 33 by Stalin with the Holodomor:



I just read the original article on RIA Novosti. If you want to understand the ideology of the Kremlin, it is there. Everything is explained openly and shamelessly.

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## Dimlee (Apr 4, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Dimlee,
> 
> re my post#3558:
> 
> ...


Tomahawk or similar weapons could be given under certain conditions, including the ban on targeting RF territory. The first batch of Javelins was kept far away from the front line in Donbas and its combat usage was not allowed until the end of 2021, as far as I know. Therefore potential "fallout" is not an obstacle. 

As for the Belgorod oil depot, my "gut feeling" is that it was our mission and it was fully authorised. By the way, it was not denied. The official MoD announcement was "we do not confirm and we do not deny" and "Russian Federation is responsible for the safety accidents in its territory".

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## MIflyer (Apr 4, 2022)

Relative to that report on the 19th Century rifles and the dead frogs, I note it was from someone named "Tom Sykes."

There was a rather obvious Russian plant who was a blog commenter at PJ Media and his name was "Bob Sykes." Makes you wonder. 

And by the way, I think the Mosin Nagant rilfes that were being sold here were PRC manufacture. A friend of mien bought some, 25 years or so back.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> You need to do some homework. Search RedEagles and or Constant Peg.


e.g. 419th Fighter Wings, at Hill Air Force Base in Utah - That is an official USAF fighter-wing and integral part of the USAF fighter wings
e.g. JG 73 "Steinhoff" formerly equipped MiG 29's at Laage Germany, now TLG 73 - that is an official Luftwaffe fighter-wing and integral part of the Luftwaffe fighter wings

Those Su 19, Su 22, MiG 23, and others that are operated by the evaluation unit at WtD 61 Manching Germany are not an official fighter-wing.

Anything else is what ever it may be, e.g. 4477th Test and Evaluation Squadron, but not an official fighter wing

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> e.g. 419th Fighter Wings, at Hill Air Force Base in Utah - That is an official USAF fighter-wing and integral part of the USAF fighter wings
> e.g. JG 73 "Steinhoff" formerly equipped MiG 29's at Laage Germany, now TLG 73 - that is an official Luftwaffe fighter-wing and integral part of the Luftwaffe fighter wings
> 
> Those Su 19, Su 22, MiG 23, and others that are operated by the evaluation unit at WtD 61 Manching Germany are not an official fighter-wing.
> ...



I’m familiar with the German MiGs as I went to Laage to fight them, as well as Key West. The USAF operated MiGs, which I thought was what your point was.

Fighter Wing, or Squadron size regardless, they were operated by the USAF.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Just wondering. What would happen if those 3 individuals were to donate their MiGs to Ukraine?
> I know it ain’t happening but I was wondering about legal and international implications of such an event.
> A what if.


Hard to say - operationally these MiGs can only fly to and from certain places within the US. I think they would have to be disassembled and shipped. I think 2 of these aircraft are 2 seat versions,

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## J_P_C (Apr 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Tomahawk or similar weapons could be given under certain conditions, including the ban on targeting RF territory. The first batch of Javelins was kept far away from the front line in Donbas and its combat usage was not allowed until the end of 2021, as far as I know. Therefore potential "fallout" is not an obstacle.
> 
> As for the Belgorod oil depot, my "gut feeling" is that it was our mission and it was fully authorised. By the way, it was not denied. The official MoD announcement was "we do not confirm and we do not deny" and "Russian Federation is responsible for the safety accidents in its territory".


if so this Mi24's crews are real "cossacks" for me ...

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## Dimlee (Apr 4, 2022)

Dmytro Antonov, the last Captain of An-225 Mriya. Initial damage assessment of the home base.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

Is he related to the founder of Antonov?


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## buffnut453 (Apr 4, 2022)

BBC fact-check of Russian claims about bodies found in Bucha:









Bucha killings: Satellite image of bodies site contradicts Russian claims


Russia called footage of bodies in Bucha 'staged' but its evidence for this does not stack up.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

I was watching a CNN YT vid. A retired general who was giving commentary said he's seen reports of Russians mining the Black Sea off Bulgaria and Romania. That's kind of vague but anyone else hear of this?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was watching a CNN YT vid. A retired general who was giving commentary said he's seen reports of Russians mining the Black Sea off Bulgaria and Romania. That's kind of vague but anyone else hear of this?



Was it retired Maj. Gen. Pittard?


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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

Major General Paul Eaton, USA (Ret)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Major General Paul Eaton, USA (Ret)



I was just asking because I have been seeing Pittard a lot on TV. I used to fly him around a lot when he was a full bird colonel and one star.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> There's the whiney bitch again...
> 
> They claim they have have not killed a single civilian and all civilian deaths are "staged" by Ukraine.



To be fair, that's more "lying cocksucker" than whiney bitch, but that's just a nitpick at this point, no?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> These shots were taken at Key West. We fought Top Gun Hornets and MiG-29s. One of my two top TDYs ever. The Germans were world class good guys, and we had a blast. Many brain cells were consumed and no alcohol was hurt…
> 
> I took the first shot after doing ACM. The second shot was taken by Sgt Withers, of which another was on the cover of the Air Force magazine. We were flying over Ft Jackson, located about 270/60 off NAS Key West tacan.
> 
> ...



You, sir, just won the Internet for today. F**kin' A.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

special ed said:


> The Mosin-Nagant model 1891 is a bolt action 7.62 rifle, arsenal upgraded to "91/30" in 1930. It was the main WW2 battle rifle. It is a collector arm in this country.



To make it a fair fight, maybe the Italians could donate to Ukraine some Mannlicher-Carcanos?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> These shots were taken at Key West. We fought Top Gun Hornets and MiG-29s. One of my two top TDYs ever. The Germans were world class good guys, and we had a blast. Many brain cells were consumed and no alcohol was hurt…
> 
> I took the first shot after doing ACM. The second shot was taken by Sgt Withers, of which another was on the cover of the Air Force magazine. We were flying over Ft Jackson, located about 270/60 off NAS Key West tacan.
> 
> ...



More Pics or it didn’t happen…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> More Pics or it didn’t happen…



Fact? We don't need no stinkin' facts! Or pics! Off with ye, begone!

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## SaparotRob (Apr 4, 2022)

More pics would be nice, though.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> More pics would be nice, though.



That’s what I was angling at…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

I’m hoping 

 BiffF15
says “Challenge accepted. Hold my beer.”

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> More pics would be nice, though.



Forum needs a doubleplus agree button for these sorts of posts.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Forum needs a doubleplus agree button for these sorts of posts.



It’s called bacon…

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 4, 2022)

Looking at some open source blogs on Russian losses, the scale is immense:

(Bear in mind these are minimum losses, as confirmed by pictures/videos)

Tanks: 201 confirmed destroyed, 42 confirmed abandoned 176 confirmed captured
AFVs: 131 destroyed, 32 abandoned, 116 captured
IFVs and APCs (tracked and wheeled): 252 destroyed, 48 abandoned, 194 captured
Artillery (tube and missile, towed and self-propelled): 56 destroyed, 25 abandoned, 87 captured
SPAA & SAM: 27 destroyed, 10 abandoned, 17 captured
Fixed wing aircraft: 19 fighters and 3 transports destroyed
Helicopters: 19 attack helicopters and 20 transport helicopters

Against this, the Ukranian General Staff put Russian losses as:

Tanks: 644 tanks
Other armored combat vehicles: 1,830;
Tube artillery: 325
Missile artillery: 105 MLR systems;
Air defense vehicles: 54;
Aircraft: 143
Helicopters: 134 
UAVs: 89;
Ships: 7;
Other vehicles: 1,249 vehicles, 76 fuel tank trucks, 24 units of special equipment, and 4 mobile SRBM systems. 

Even if Russia's actual losses are only half way between the Ukranian claims and the open source confirmed losses that's still north of 525 tanks, 1300 armoured vehicles, 250 artillery and missile systems, 80 fixed wing aircraft and 85 rotary wing aircraft.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It’s called bacon…



Modified IAW this insight.


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## BiffF15 (Apr 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m hoping
> 
> BiffF15
> says “Challenge accepted. Hold my beer.”


I’m on the road, but will check when I get home!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 4, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> I’m on the road, but will check when I get home!

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## buffnut453 (Apr 4, 2022)

Another example of Russian precision targeting of Ukrainian military assets:

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## at6 (Apr 4, 2022)

Putin isn't the only war criminal. The whole sh!t eating Russian government is filled with war criminals. Putin, his generals, the Duma,and Russian officials are guilty as are the Russian soldiers.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2022)

Here's a team of absolute heroes. I dare anyone to watch this and not weep:









Rescuing vulnerable children from Ukraine's front line


A BBC crew follows an ambulance team as medics evacuate 12 children from the city of Sumy.



www.bbc.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)

Loot that didn't make it back to the Russian black market...

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## GrauGeist (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another example of Russian precision targeting of Ukrainian military assets:
> 
> View attachment 663717


Assholes - dare I guess what's covered in the blanket behind the car?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 5, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> I’m familiar with the German MiGs as I went to Laage to fight them, as well as Key West. The USAF operated MiGs, which I thought was what your point was.
> 
> Fighter Wing, or Squadron size regardless, they were operated by the USAF.


No problem, I was initially referring to Denniss post:
_.....Or was it so new in US service they forgot to remove german tactical numbers?...._

Assuming that Denniss thought those ex. Luftwaffe MiG's had become a USAF fighterwing

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It’s called bacon…


Oh thanks - I was wondering all the time

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## ThomasP (Apr 5, 2022)

Hey GrauGeist,

Fortunately the object behind the car is only a duffel of some type.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another example of Russian precision targeting of Ukrainian military assets:
> 
> View attachment 663717


Yep - war and war-zones suck - especially for civilians.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

I hope the Ukrainians are preparing for the coming onslaught in the east.

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## Dimlee (Apr 5, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Is he related to the founder of Antonov?


Just a namesake.

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## Dimlee (Apr 5, 2022)

Anti-tank Stugna vs Ka-52 chopper.
Spoiler: Stugna wins.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

Interesting vid....



Includes how Russia hasn't produced new tanks, that they have few young engineers, and how the dozens of regional governments may cause issues.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 5, 2022)

at6 said:


> Putin isn't the only war criminal. The whole sh!t eating Russian government is filled with war criminals. Putin, his generals, the Duma,and Russian officials are guilty as are the Russian soldiers.



I for one am getting pretty tired of these posts. There have been several in this vane and so I feel that I need to pipe up.

I abhor what is going on in Ukraine and have no doubt that there are clear cases to be made for war crimes charges against many individuals. However, I reject the allusion to guilt by association that underlies this and other posts that you've made and would suggest that it's exactly this kind of argument that Putin used as justification to invade Ukraine in the first place. The sober consideration of facts and the presumption of innocence until guilt is proven is what separates we who hold the rule of law sacrosanct from the flagrant abusers of international order.

History books are FULL of examples of generalized hatred and the resulting horrors. It's time we learned.

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## Macandy (Apr 5, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I for one am getting pretty tired of these posts. There have been several in this vane and so I feel that I need to pipe up.
> 
> I abhor what is going on in Ukraine and have no doubt that there are clear cases to be made for war crimes charges against many individuals. However, I reject the allusion to guilt by association that underlies this and other posts that you've made and would suggest that it's exactly this kind of argument that Putin used as justification to invade Ukraine in the first place. The sober consideration of facts and the presumption of innocence until guilt is proven is what separates we who hold the rule of law sacrosanct from the flagrant abusers of international order.
> 
> History books are FULL of examples of generalized hatred and the resulting horrors. It's time we learned.




Russia is a criminal Mafia state

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey GrauGeist,
> 
> Fortunately the object behind the car is only a duffel of some type.



That's a VERY big duffel. It wouldn't fit width-wise within the car.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 5, 2022)

Damn, that makes me cry.









Some parents are writing important information on the backs of their Ukrainian children in case they are killed


As soon as the first bombs dropped, Aleksandra Makoviy knew she needed an emergency plan for her 2-year-old daughter.




www.yahoo.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)

Speaking of war crimes, looting of prisoners and/or bodies is also a war crime:

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Yep - war and war-zones suck - especially for civilians.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



Entirely agree, although there's a world of difference between deliberate targeting of military capabilities and civilians being caught inadvertently and what we're seeing in Ukraine. The long-range bombardment of civilian apartment blocks in multiple cities, "shoot first and forget about asking later" engagements by combat vehicles against civilian vehicles, attacking hospital facilities....those are not the actions of a military that's seeking to minimize civilian casualties. They're the actions of a military that fundamentally doesn't understand how to wage war except by total annihilation. It's dishonorable, immoral, and entirely contrary to any established norms for most militaries over the past 75 years.

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## Macandy (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Entirely agree, although there's a world of difference between deliberate targeting of military capabilities and civilians being caught inadvertently and what we're seeing in Ukraine. The long-range bombardment of civilian apartment blocks in multiple cities, "shoot first and forget about asking later" engagements by combat vehicles against civilian vehicles, attacking hospital facilities....those are not the actions of a military that's seeking to minimize civilian casualties. They're the actions of a military that fundamentally doesn't understand how to wage war except by total annihilation. It's dishonorable, immoral, and entirely contrary to any established norms for most militaries over the past 75 years.




If WWII had kicked off in Europe, it was always expected the Russians would use chemical weapons to drive huge numbers of fleeing civilians onto the roads to block Western reinforcements coming up, and would strafe the roads constantly to create widespread civilian casualties and terror and further hinder advancing Western troops - would you want to drive your tanks over roads carpeted with your dead and wounded civilians?

There is nothing new about this - Large scale killing of civilians was always part and parcel of the Russian armies playbook.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2022)

Macandy said:


> There is nothing new about this - Large scale killing of civilians was always part and parcel of the Russian armies playbook.



Which brings us back to the total lack of logical planning for the invasion of Ukraine. If you're planning to liberate an oppressed people, you don't do it by deliberately killing them....unless you're using the most expansive definition of the term "liberate".

I can understand wanting to disrupt the civilian population of your enemies. However, Putin and his cronies have persistently asserted that they're bringing freedom to the people of Ukraine who are living under nazi oppression. The illogic is breathtaking.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

Macandy said:


> If WWII had kicked off in Europe, it was always expected the Russians would use chemical weapons


Not to question your numeracy, but are you sure you have the right war? China aside, WWII did kick off in Europe and I don't believe anyone used chemical weapons.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Which brings us back to the total lack of logical planning for the invasion of Ukraine. If you're planning to liberate an oppressed people, you don't do it by deliberately killing them..


It is a head scratcher. What could be the strategy here?


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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Apr 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Speaking of war crimes, looting of prisoners and/or bodies is also a war crime:



There was a new "invasion" in the past few days. In the post offices of Belarus. Returning troops sent parcels to their home places across the Russian Federation. Belarus opposition managed to obtain some shipments' data. Hundreds of kilograms per person...

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## Dimlee (Apr 5, 2022)

Excellent briefing. Highly recommended to anyone who wants to understand the roots of this war.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Excellent briefing. Highly recommended to anyone who wants to understand the roots of this war.



Very informative about Putin's miscalculation and misunderstanding.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Entirely agree, although there's a world of difference between deliberate targeting of military capabilities and civilians being caught inadvertently and what we're seeing in Ukraine. The long-range bombardment of civilian apartment blocks in multiple cities, "shoot first and forget about asking later" engagements by combat vehicles against civilian vehicles, attacking hospital facilities....those are not the actions of a military that's seeking to minimize civilian casualties. They're the actions of a military that fundamentally doesn't understand how to wage war except by total annihilation. It's dishonorable, immoral, and entirely contrary to any established norms for most militaries over the past 75 years.



Maslow's Hammer: "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

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## tomo pauk (Apr 5, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I for one am getting pretty tired of these posts. There have been several in this vane and so I feel that I need to pipe up.
> 
> I abhor what is going on in Ukraine and have no doubt that there are clear cases to be made for war crimes charges against many individuals. However, I reject the allusion to guilt by association that underlies this and other posts that you've made and would suggest that it's exactly this kind of argument that Putin used as justification to invade Ukraine in the first place. The sober consideration of facts and the presumption of innocence until guilt is proven is what separates we who hold the rule of law sacrosanct from the flagrant abusers of international order.
> 
> History books are FULL of examples of generalized hatred and the resulting horrors. It's time we learned.



I'll pipe up, too.

Members of Duma, Russian government, and Russian military officers from colonels up are *all* guilty by association. All of them are lectured individuals, so there is no 'I didn't know' excuse. All of them are conscious human beings (I at least hope they are) giving either voice, or legality, or muscle to Putin, so there is no 'I could do nothing' excuse either. They are either supporting Putin, or are to much of cowards to stop him by any means necessary - either way they are guilty.

It is high time that we learn that a life of a next man in the street is as valuable as a life of anyone in the high-up a position. It is high time for people in position of power in Russia to assume responsibility for their actions, as well as for their inactions. 
Putin himself needs to meet a bullet, for discouragement of the others. That is a way-out for any self-aware member of Russian government or military.

Comparing Ukraine and Russia is bad taste.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday._


Looks like things are happening on the tanks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like things are happening on the tanks.




I hope this is accurate. If so, I'd support pulling any older M1s we have in mothballs for refurbishment and backfilling the Czech arms.

As for the donated tanks being old, yes, they are. But they're facing low-quality troops which have already lost a significant proportion of their own armor, and they won't be operating under opposing air-superiority.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

I have to think the Ukrainians have one of the best MiG-29 paint schemes. 







Might they want some invasion stripes under the wing to avoid friendly AA fire?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have to think the Ukrainians have one of the best MiG-29 paint schemes.
> 
> View attachment 663818
> 
> ...


Brilliant.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have to think the Ukrainians have one of the best MiG-29 paint schemes.
> 
> View attachment 663818
> 
> ...



My radar can't track it, the epileptic fit it brings on breaks lock.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope this is accurate. If so, I'd support pulling any older M1s we have in mothballs for refurbishment and backfilling the Czech arms.


At 0:12, is that a T-72 minus ERA? I thought it looked like an old T-62.

Does Peru still have its twenty-odd MiG-29s? I'm sure a US security guarantee would free those up for a five stage transatlantic flight. Plus the US could send all its MiG-29s. Throw in the Polish ones and that's three or four squadrons worth. But damn it, the West needs to hurry, Russian offensive 2.0 will begin within the next 10 days or so.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have to think the Ukrainians have one of the best MiG-29 paint schemes.
> 
> View attachment 663818
> 
> ...


NATO doesn’t have a National insignia for aircraft per se. I can’t think of a more uniting symbol for its planes. 
The Empire’s air forces, USAAF and Free French aircraft had Invasion Stripes. Kind of like the same nations that form NATO.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> At 0:12, is that a T-72 minus ERA? I thought it looked like an old T-62i.



It looks like one to me, but I'm no expert on Soviet tanks. 

 wlewisiii
would definitely be the better person to ask this to.



Admiral Beez said:


> Does Peru still have its twenty-odd MiG-29s? I'm sure a US security guarantee would free those up for a five stage transatlantic flight. Plus the US could send all its MiG-29s. Throw in the Polish ones and that's three or four squadrons worth. But damn it, the West needs to hurry, Russian offensive 2.0 will begin within the next 10 days or so.



I don't think you're going to see American action in supplying planes. And Peru giving up its only squadron of supersonic fighters is a tall ask, too.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> At 0:12, is that a T-72 minus ERA? I thought it looked like an old T-62.
> 
> Does Peru still have its twenty-odd MiG-29s? I'm sure a US security guarantee would free those up for a five stage transatlantic flight. Plus the US could send all its MiG-29s. Throw in the Polish ones and that's three or four squadrons worth. But damn it, the West needs to hurry, Russian offensive 2.0 will begin within the next 10 days or so.



Yep, it’s a T-72. The T-55 and T-62 both had 5 main road wheels, albeit with different spacing. The T-72 has 6 large road wheels.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yep, it’s a T-72. The T-55 and T-62 both had 5 main road wheels, albeit with different spacing. The T-72 has 6 large road wheels.


In between they tried 6 small roadwheels on the T-64. While they never changed them on those tanks, they never used that pattern again so I can bet it wasn't especially successful. 

Roadwheel number & spacing is one of the best tells of which tanks are which till you get to the T-80/T-90 era.

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## tomo pauk (Apr 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> In between they tried 6 small roadwheels on the T-64. While they never changed them on those tanks, they never used that pattern again so I can bet it wasn't especially successful.
> 
> Roadwheel number & spacing is one of the best tells of which tanks are which till you get to the T-80/T-90 era.



T-80 is a young sibling of the T-64, the family of 'advanced tanks'. Outward similarity are the small wheels.
T-90 is a young sibling of the T-72, the family of 'run on the mill' tanks. Those have the bigger wheels.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Plus the US could send all its MiG-29s.


Nearly all the MiG-29s and Su-27s in the U.S. are privately owned.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 5, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Apr 6, 2022)

This has to stop.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 6, 2022)

Yes. This reinforces the fact that no concessions in territory or anything else can be given to those who are simply going
to bide their time and do it all over again.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



God, my heart breaks for this wee one and all the others.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> This has to stop.



After all these atrocities have come to light, I'm changing my opinion about a no-fly zone. At a certain point these atrocities become ours if we do nothing to stop them.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 6, 2022)

_The U.S. is sending up to $100 million in additional military aid to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion of the country continues.

The State Department and Pentagon announced the military funding in statements Tuesday evening. The money will go toward Javelin anti-armor systems, according to Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he authorized an immediate drawdown to address Ukraine’s need for more anti-armor systems. Drawdowns allow the president to help countries during emergencies without needing approval from a legislative authority or budgetary appropriations, according to a Defense Department handbook.

Tuesday night’s drawdown marks the sixth such allocation the U.S. has made for Ukraine since August, according to Blinken. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with more than $1.7 billion since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February.

“I have authorized, pursuant to a delegation from the President earlier today, the immediate drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $100 million to meet Ukraine’s urgent need for additional anti-armor systems,” Blinken said in a statement._









US to send $100M in additional military aid to Ukraine


The U.S. is sending up to $100 million in additional military aid to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion of the country continues. The State Department and Pentagon announced the military funding in state…




thehill.com





Nice, but not enough.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 6, 2022)

_A small cul de sac in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius did not have a name, and the only address in this street belonged to the Russian embassy. Once formalities are finished, the embassy’s new address will be “Ukraine’s Heroes 2”, in Ukrainian – “Улица Героев Украины 2”.

“Every Russian embassy’s workers’ business card from now on will have to honour Ukrainian heroes,” the city mayor wrote in his Facebook post.

“Everyone who writes a letter to the embassy will have to think about Russia’s aggression and Ukrainian heroes,” Šimašius added._









Street with Russian Embassy in Vilnius to be renamed ‘Ukraine’s Heroes Street’







www.euractiv.com

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 6, 2022)

That is awesome!

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## buffnut453 (Apr 6, 2022)

Well, here's one Russian nationalist who won't be spreading his vile comments any more:









Putin's ultranationalist ally and clown Zhirinovsky dies at 75


Vladimir Zhirinovsky has died in hospital, after a career built on fiery remarks and absurd antics.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 6, 2022)

_
SINGAPORE, April 6 (Reuters) - China's state refiners are honouring existing Russian oil contracts but avoiding new ones despite steep discounts, heeding Beijing's call for caution as western sanctions mount against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, six people told Reuters.

State-run Sinopec (600028.SS), Asia's largest refiner, CNOOC, PetroChina (601857.SS) and Sinochem have stayed on the sidelines in trading fresh Russian cargoes for May loadings, said the people, who all have knowledge of the matter but spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.


Chinese state-owned firms do not wish to be seen as openly supporting Moscow by buying extra volumes of oil, said two of the people, after Washington banned Russian oil last month and the European Union slapped sanctions on top Russian exporter Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM). read more_









Exclusive: China state refiners shun new Russian oil trades, teapots fly under radar


China's state refiners are honouring existing Russian oil contracts but avoiding new ones despite steep discounts, heeding Beijing's call for caution as western sanctions mount against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, six people told Reuters.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (Apr 6, 2022)

A stark message for the EU about the relative expenditures of their support for Ukraine -vs- the money they've given to Russia for oil and gas (Source: BBC):

_The European Union has spent €35bn (£29bn) on Russian fuel since the start of the war, compared to an outlay of just €1bn to Ukraine in arms and weapons, the EU's foreign policy chief has said.
"We have to help [the Ukrainians] defend themselves... We have given Ukraine €1bn. It might seem a lot but €1bn is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he provides us," he told the European Parliament.
His remarks come as EU ambassadors meet to consider a fifth round of sanctions against Moscow – including a ban on imports of Russian coal.
"Today we put an end to coal but this is only a small share of the bill," Borrell told MEPs.
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has said the EU is "working on" additional measures including restrictions on oil imports._


And a related commentary:

_It shouldn't really come as much of a surprise that the EU has spent more on Russian energy since 28 February than on supporting Ukraine's war effort.
The EU's 1bn euros (£830m) of military assistance is hardly an insignificant amount, particularly when combined with other Western commitments (the US total is now around $1.7bn).
But when the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell mentioned the figure earlier today, he clearly meant it to sound shocking, to concentrate vexed European minds on how the EU can wean itself off Russian fossil fuels.
It's an anguished debate on a continent where Russian energy is so crucial and where many voices, notably German, are warning of the economic damage that could be wrought by rapid sanctions on oil and gas.
Today, the EU is poised to end imports of Russian coal, but as Borrell says, this is only "a small share of the bill".
Coal imports are dwarfed by purchases of Russian oil and gas._

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A stark message for the EU about the relative expenditures of their support for Ukraine -vs- the money they've given to Russia for oil and gas (Source: BBC):
> 
> _The European Union has spent €35bn (£29bn) on Russian fuel since the start of the war, compared to an outlay of just €1bn to Ukraine in arms and weapons, the EU's foreign policy chief has said.
> "We have to help [the Ukrainians] defend themselves... We have given Ukraine €1bn. It might seem a lot but €1bn is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he provides us," he told the European Parliament.
> ...


Isnt it paid into a euro controlled account? Thats more or less frozen. Can get in but not out..


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## buffnut453 (Apr 6, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Isnt it paid into a euro controlled account? Thats more or less frozen. Can get in but not out..



I don't think so. I believe the oil and gas are still being paid, albeit in Euros, to Russia to maintain contracts. If Russia wasn't getting the cash, it would be straightforward for Putin to claim breach of contract and shut off supplies.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

I found this video analsis intersting.



The premise is that much of what Russia spends on its military has no relevance in its war with Ukraine, which is odd considering that Russia chose the conflict but invested in areas that had no utility. For example the huge investment in maintaining its nuclear arsenal (boomers and silos), its navy and developing wunderwaffe (hypersonic missiles, stealth fighters, etc.) gives no capability in this war. Meanwhile Ukraine has a focused military, with one purpose, to counter a Russian invasion, so they need no navy, no development of wonder weapons, etc.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 6, 2022)

Putler is redeploying his traveling circus from Northern Ukraine to the Donbas region. Are they bringing their radioactive tanks with them?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putler is redeploying his traveling circus from Northern Ukraine to the Donbas region. Are they bringing their radioactive tanks with them?



Mobile dirty bombs?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 6, 2022)

I’m just thinking that, ya’ know, he’s been kinda cavalier about losses so far. I just see him inadvertently setting up a radioactive border with Ukraine while cleverly maneuvering behind his own lines.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 6, 2022)

He will also be reducing the Russian Army’s payroll in response to the West’s Special Economic Re-Bureautization that accidentally included Russia’s loot.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 6, 2022)

A threadreader series of tweets. It's an interesting analysis.









Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App


@kamilkazani: Why Russia is losing this war? First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It giv...…




threadreaderapp.com

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

Any chance Ukraine can retake Crimea? A third Siege of Sevastopol?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 6, 2022)

Just the geological situation would make the Crimea difdicult to retake, in light of the Ukraine military's numerical disadvantage.

They would need to somehow bolster their naval assets to counter Russia's Black Sea fleet.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 6, 2022)

Completely retaking the Donbas from the separatists is probably a more realistic goal than Crimea. As GG notes, the physical geography and the lack of a significant naval presence keeps the Crimea secure in Comrade Putin's hands.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> They would need to somehow bolster their naval assets to counter Russia's Black Sea fleet.


If only the Ukrainians had a trio of Kilos.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If only the Ukrainians had a trio of Kilos.


A couple/three Type 214 submarines would be even better.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> A couple/three Type 214 submarines would be even better.


True, but If the Russian ASW is anything like their tactics on land any relatively modern SSKs will do the job.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Completely retaking the Donbas from the separatists is probably a more realistic goal than Crimea.


In a way Russia has done Ukraine a favour, since there’s no way Ukraine could have attempted to take the Donbas region militarily before without Russia attacking and likely the West muttering about Kiyv destabilizing the region. Now, Russia‘s already in the fight, the world recognizes the Donbas as Ukrainian territory, and Ukranin may have the ability to once and for all retake the region.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 6, 2022)

The Crimea is still internationally recognized as Ukraine's territory, so *if* Ukrainian forces were to somehow liberate it, it would be accepted as a legitimate action (except by the whiney bitch, of course).

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

What would happen if tomorrow Russia rolls tanks into Latvia? Article 5, I know, but would NATO reaction be? All out attack on Russian military forces world wide, or just a stomping of whatever tanks and men have rolled into Latvia?


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 6, 2022)

Well they took the war to Afghanistan


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

A good caution on combat vids.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 6, 2022)

Yeah, that's a good one to post again. I'm not sure how may pages back in this thread it was when I posted that video from The Chieftan, back when it came out.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would happen if tomorrow Russia rolls tanks into Latvia? Article 5, I know, but would NATO reaction be? All out attack on Russian military forces world wide, or just a stomping of whatever tanks and men have rolled into Latvia?


You mean with the invisible tanks lining the border today? Evidence of an intended invasion by land would become apparent over several weeks/months. Plenty of time for NATO to build up in kind.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Yeah, that's a good one to post again. I'm not sure how may pages back in this thread it was when I posted that video from The Chieftan, back when it came out.


Here’s a new one, helping to explain what the heck Russia wants.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would happen if tomorrow Russia rolls tanks into Latvia? Article 5, I know, but would NATO reaction be? All out attack on Russian military forces world wide, or just a stomping of whatever tanks and men have rolled into Latvia?



With what? The major share of their active armed forces are bogged down in the south.

NATO reaction should the Russians be that dumb would likely to be to stamp out the brush fire in the Baltics, and then impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, as hostilities have already been commenced by the Russians and the NFZ gets a pass after attacking NATO.

It'd be a foolish move by the Russians and guarantee their defeat on both fronts.

World-wide, I'd think NATO would consider blockading all Russian ports, at the very most, rather than opening active combat fronts.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another example of Russian precision targeting of Ukrainian military assets:
> 
> View attachment 663717


"Their white flags can't stand up against our muskets!"

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## SaparotRob (Apr 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Mobile dirty bombs?


I was giving your reply a rethink. Those shattered units redeploying would be irradiating many other of their troops in different locations and create "evidence" of Ukrainian dirty bombs.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was giving your reply a rethink. Those shattered units redeploying would be irradiating many other of their troops in different locations and create "evidence" of Ukrainian dirty bombs.



Speaking of irradiated armor, when we arrived at our FOB in Iraq it was still littered with destroyed Iraqi tanks and armored vehicles. Naturally we wanted to explore, however, were told to not climb in them because several had been taken out by A-10s with 30 mm depleted uranium rounds.







And just for your viewing pleasure a few more pics of destroyed armor we flew upon.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would happen if tomorrow Russia rolls tanks into Latvia? Article 5, I know, but would NATO reaction be? All out attack on Russian military forces world wide, or just a stomping of whatever tanks and men have rolled into Latvia?



Primary reaction would be to evict Russian forces from Latvia. However, it's likely that the fighting would spread pretty quickly. The maritime domain is one area where I see room for broader engagements between NATO and Russian forces...and if that happens, we could see some interesting activities in the Black Sea which might help Ukraine.

I don't see NATO attacking Mother Russia, other than any forces gathering to support offensive operations into NATO nations. Targeting Moscow would, I believe, be off the table initially but military targets within Belarus could easily be viewed as fair game. 

That said, as others have pointed out, Putin has his hands full "liberating" Ukraine. It would be a monumental mistake to start a 2-front war by attacking NATO.

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## at6 (Apr 7, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



This is so heart breaking. Chalk up another war crime to make some one pay for.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

From the BBC: 

_The UN will hold a vote on Thursday to determine whether Russia should be kicked off the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) over the reports of atrocities committed in areas of Ukraine that it had occupied.

The resolution was introduced by the US after evidence of civilian killings emerged in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.

Russia has warned countries that attempts to throw it off the 47-member panel will be viewed as an "unfriendly gesture," according to a letter to diplomats seen by Reuters.

Russia's mission to the UN in New York called on countries to "speak out against the anti-Russian resolution". A two-thirds majority is required to expel Russia from the group.

In a statement to Tass news agency, the head of Russia's UN mission said: "If the resolution is adopted, the Westerners will be able to freely impose on the rest of the countries the concepts and their vision of human rights that please them and their Western accomplices."

"The suspension of Russia's rights as a member of the Human Rights Council will discredit the principle of the Council's universality, harm its effectiveness, and completely undermine trust not only in the Human Rights Council, but in the entire UN human rights system," said Gennady Gatilov._


My personal favourite line is the whole idea that Western concepts and vision for human rights are somehow wrong and being forced on the rest of the world. Presumably, therefore, the Kremlin has a different view. Evidence suggest that the Kremlin doesn't believe there's such a thing as human rights...at least not as far as Ukrainians are concerned.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> My personal favourite line is the whole idea that Western concepts and vision for human rights are somehow wrong and being forced on the rest of the world. Presumably, therefore, the Kremlin has a different view. Evidence suggest that the Kremlin doesn't believe there's such a thing as human rights...at least not as far as Ukrainians are concerned.


I don't believe that this is only the Kremlin's point of view "unfortunately", but on the contra a view shared in majority by African, Asian countries (independently of calling themselves democratic) and maybe even by a majority of the Latin-American countries. Let's see what results this resolution will show/bring.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## wlewisiii (Apr 7, 2022)

Holy St Javelin, Batman! The US Senate just voted to revive Lend Lease! 

In the fight against Putin, Senate unanimously approves measure that once helped beat Hitler



> The Senate unanimously passed major legislation late Wednesday to revive a World War II-era program allowing President Joe Biden to more efficiently send weapons and other supplies to Ukraine amid Russia's bloody invasion.
> 
> Senators quickly rallied behind the proposal, known as Lend-Lease, as Ukraine's military proved it could fend off Russian troops who have been shelling Ukrainian cities and towns since late February. The Lend-Lease program created during World War II was seen as a game-changer in the conflict, as it allowed the U.S. to quickly resupply the Allies without time-consuming procedural hurdles.

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## ThomasP (Apr 7, 2022)

re the area of human rights as viewed/defined by the Russians.

I think this is one area where the RF reps are probably not being deceptive. There are a large majority of the worlds countries that view 'human' rights as distinct (to one degree or another) from 'civil', 'economic', and/or 'political' rights - some more than others, some less so. This includes many(most?) of the 'leading' western nations.

One example of this separation is seen in the area of homeless rates, between the idea of housing as a human right and the idea of economic rights.

The US started on a program in the 1950s to provide housing through one method or another to everyone that needed it, kind of a non-formally defined human right sort of thing. They did not try to incorporate it into the US Constitution at the time. But, other people saw this attempt to provide housing for everyone as an attack on their economic rights - primarily the real-estate companies, landlords of apartment buildings, and individual home owners - due to the potential impact on their ability to make money. Others saw the homeless (for the most part) as inferior since most were poor, of one minority or another, or mentally ill. So through our representative political system the movement was stalled, and only allowed to be implemented in a token manner. The US has had a minimum of ~500,000 homeless at any time in the last 10 years (note that this number does not include unregistered/illegal aliens).

Finland, just in the past few years, decided to put a right to housing into effect. They are well on their way to succeeding - currently they have the lowest per capita homeless rate of any European nation. "https://www.cbc.ca/radio/sunday/the...finland-is-eradicating-homelessness-1.5437402"

Another, more visible difference, is in the area of political protest.

In the past few years here in the US, we have had a significant amount of protesting going on. It has taken the form of everything from peaceful marches and sit-ins, to violent riots in the streets sometimes including destruction of private and government property. The issue primarily revolved around civil rights and how they were not being equally applied to the primarily white ruing class and the various minorities. Although the majority of focus was on the unnecessary killing of black (African American) citizens, it also included other significant ongoing inequitable treatment. Part of the issue was also that the police officers were almost never punished for their actions - at least not in any way that was deemed reasonable by anyone other than the police. The government, for the most part, responded in a reasonable and proportional manner to the level of disturbance and violence perpetrated by the protesters. Some people in this country think that the government was heavy handed, others think that the government should have sent in the police (and national guard if necessary) and had them shoot the protesters. Fortunately, we managed to not make the matter worse, and hopefully something better will come of this so that it will not recur in the future.

What if this same type of protest movement happened in your countries? Would the protesters have been allowed to block traffic - on city streets and freeways? block airport access? hold marches near government centers? interrupt and disrupt political procedures (including protesters entering the building dressed in military gear and armed with loaded pistols and rifles)? hold loud protests outside homes of political leaders (sometimes while armed)? get into fights in the streets with the opposition protesters? get into fights with police? burn down private property? burn down a police precinct HQ building? Would this kind of behavior be protected under the heading of "human' right?

What would happen if this type of protest took place in the RF? I know that there have been serious protests in the RF in the past few decades, but I do not know enough to comment on how they were handled.

And I know that there have been large protests in some of your countries, but again I do not know enough about them to comment.

These were just 2 examples, and probably not the best ones.

Whether we agree/should agree with these separate definitions of rights is another matter, and would probably go too far into politics to be a practical discussion for this forum. But these definitions (views) should not be discounted in our ponderings on what people do and why they do them.

I am not sure how well I expressed my meaning here, but hopefully well enough to be understood.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 7, 2022)

In addition as mercenaries, they are not legally combatants: 



> Rule 108 of the 2005 ICRC customary IHL study prescribes that in the context of an international armed conflict, mercenaries, as defined in Additional Protocol I, do not have the right to combatant or prisoner-of-war status and may not be convicted or sentenced without previous trial.
> 
> *Mercenaries are not entitled to the status of combatant, prisoner of war (API Article 47), or any of the categories of protected persons provided for by the Geneva Conventions, unless they are wounded or sick, although they must always benefit from humane treatment. In conformity with the Geneva Conventions, they can be held criminally responsible if they commit war crimes or other grave breaches of humanitarian law. They are entitled to the fundamental guarantees established for all individuals.
> 
> The Practical Guide to Humanitarian Law*

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Holy St Javelin, Batman! The US Senate just voted to revive Lend Lease!


Good stuff. govinfo 

My guess is the Russians will begin their new offensive against eastern Ukraine and especially Mariupol within the fortnight. How quickly can arms get to the Ukrainian forces? It is interesting that Russia hasn't hit the Ukrainian railways or interior bridges and highways - they have to know that's the route the new weapons come by.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

_
The radio transmissions were obtained by the Bundesnachrichtendienst, Germany's foreign intelligence service, and presented to parliament on Wednesday, Der Spiegel reported.

In one of the recordings, a Russian soldier could be heard describing how he shot someone off their bicycle, Der Spiegel reported._









Germany intercepted conversations of Russian soldiers discussing Bucha killings, contradicting Kremlin claims of a hoax, report says


Russia claims the massacre of civilians in Bucha, Ukraine, are a hoax or conspiracy designed to frame its forces.




www.yahoo.com

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 7, 2022)

Dam....


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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> _The radio transmissions were obtained by the Bundesnachrichtendienst, Germany's foreign intelligence service, and presented to parliament on Wednesday, Der Spiegel reported.
> 
> In one of the recordings, a Russian soldier could be heard describing how he shot someone off their bicycle, Der Spiegel reported._
> 
> ...



It seems wrong to be awarding a bacon for a description of such a heinous act. However, the Western nations will need to do exactly this sort of thing to call out Russian disinformation and prove to the rest of the world the true nature of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good stuff. govinfo
> 
> My guess is the Russians will begin their new offensive against eastern Ukraine and especially Mariupol within the fortnight. How quickly can arms get to the Ukrainian forces? It is interesting that Russia hasn't hit the Ukrainian railways or interior bridges and highways - they have to know that's the route the new weapons come by.



Perhaps preserving them in hopes of using them for the advance.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

New Weapons From U.S. Could Rearm Ukraine’s Bayraktar Drones


Ukraine's iconic Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones may be running short of laser-guided missiles as Turkey hedges over its support. Weapons now being supplied by the U.S. could make up the shortfall.




www.forbes.com





_"The top item in the Pentagon's latest assistance package to Ukraine announced last week is "laser-guided rocket systems." This might seem like a curious description, as by convention any rocket with guidance is called a missile. But in the U.S. military 'guided rocket' refers to a specific weapon — one that could equip Ukraine's fleet of Bayraktar TB2 drones, which may now be running short of missiles."_

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> My personal favourite line is the whole idea that Western concepts and vision for human rights are somehow wrong and being forced on the rest of the world. Presumably, therefore, the Kremlin has a different view.





ThomasP said:


> I think this is one area where the RF reps are probably not being deceptive. There are a large majority of the worlds countries that view 'human' rights as distinct (to one degree or another) from 'civil', 'economic', and/or 'political' rights - some more than others, some less so. This includes many(most?) of the 'leading' western nations.


Go back and replay the videos in posts #s 3695 and 3708. They cover these ideas in ways that us folks "contaminated" with western concepts of human rights can hopefully understand.
Essentially it's the relationship between the individual and the nation/state. We see the state as existing to preserve and protect the political rights and freedoms of every individual person. Political diversity and freedom of expression reign over our value system. This is so deeply ingrained in us that we have trouble wrapping our heads around the idea that most of the world, especially those with ethnic axes to grind, have a different hierarchy of values. For these people, freedom from fear and freedom from want are viewed as requiring unity in support of a powerful government that can protect them from their ethnic rivals and the vicissitudes of global geopolitics, as well as domestic "terrorists" who might have different (and unsettling) ideas. "Freedom" for these people has an economic and social dimension that is missing from our purely political version, and tends to value social order and planned economy more highly than the extreme levels of freedom of expression we enshrine.
To them, we look decadent, self indulgent, chaotic, and lacking the political discipline to rein in dissent and forge an economically efficient society. Due to our resource-rich continent and the cumulative wealth it's given us, we've never had to, and the ocean barriers have largely protected us from existential threats.
Implicit in this is the evolutionary dichotomy between the the sea power state with its broader horizons and multicultural exposure with resulting more progressive outlook, vs the continental power state with its ethnic homogeneity, history of invasions and empire, and more or less continuous existential threat, whether actual or perceived, resulting in a more conservative and authoritarian culture. Each mindset in this dichotomy has great difficulty in understanding and relating to the other, guaranteeing a turbulent past, present, and future.
Ukraine's history has been largely as a subset of one continental empire or another, and yet in each case it has served as a crossroads and a frontier of these powers, so becoming more culturally akin to a seagoing state than the empires it served. The Kievan Russ of a millennium ago were landlocked norsemen who had voyaged the rivers from Scandinavia and established a cosmopolitan culture that had predated and outshown the rise of Moscow and St Petersburg and The Russian Empire. No wonder they bailed out of the Russian orbit the minute they got a chance. And they're not looking back. Russians can't understand this.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Go back and replay the videos in posts #s 3695 and 3708. They cover these ideas in ways that us folks "contaminated" with western concepts of human rights can hopefully understand.
> Essentially it's the relationship between the individual and the nation/state. We see the state as existing to preserve and protect the political rights and freedoms of every individual person. Political diversity and freedom of expression reign over our value system. This is so deeply ingrained in us that we have trouble wrapping our heads around the idea that most of the world, especially those with ethnic axes to grind, have a different hierarchy of values. For these people, freedom from fear and freedom from want are viewed as requiring unity in support of a powerful government that can protect them from their ethnic rivals and the vicissitudes of global geopolitics, as well as domestic "terrorists" who might have different (and unsettling) ideas. "Freedom" for these people has an economic and social dimension that is missing from our purely political version, and tends to value social order and planned economy more highly than the extreme levels of freedom of expression we enshrine.
> To them, we look decadent, self indulgent, chaotic, and lacking the political discipline to rein in dissent and forge an economically efficient society. Due to our resource-rich continent and the cumulative wealth it's given us, we've never had to, and the ocean barriers have largely protected us from existential threats.
> Implicit in this is the evolutionary dichotomy between the the sea power state with its broader horizons and multicultural exposure with resulting more progressive outlook, vs the continental power state with its ethnic homogeneity, history of invasions and empire, and more or less continuous existential threat, whether actual or perceived, resulting in a more conservative and authoritarian culture. Each mindset in this dichotomy has great difficulty in understanding and relating to the other, guaranteeing a turbulent past, present, and future.
> Ukraine's history has been largely as a subset of one continental empire or another, and yet in each case it has served as a crossroads and a frontier of these powers, so becoming more culturally akin to a seagoing state than the empires it served. The Kievan Russ of a millennium ago were landlocked norsemen who had voyaged the rivers from Scandinavia and established a cosmopolitan culture that had predated and outshown the rise of Moscow and St Petersburg and The Russian Empire. No wonder they bailed out of the Russian orbit the minute they got a chance. And they're not looking back. Russians can't understand this.



I understand the differences between the Western vs Russian perspectives. None of that justifies the indiscriminate or deliberate killing, torture, rape, starvation etc of civilians by military forces. Those are some pretty consistent human rights wherever you live in the world, and have nothing to do with whether the government is there to protect the people or the people to drive the government. There is no possible justification for the actions we're seeing in Russia...and it's those fundamental human rights that I'm talking about. I don't care if your a communist or an anarchist...if you're a human being and part of the civilian society, you have a right to live.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I understand the differences between the Western vs Russian perspectives. None of that justifies the indiscriminate or deliberate killing, torture, rape, starvation etc of civilians by military forces.


Right on, buff! An explanation is in no way an excuse or justification. It's merely a feeble attempt to make the incomprehensible dehumanization behind those acts in some way comprehensible.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> if you're a human being and part of the civilian society, you have a right to live.


"Not if you're an enemy of the people and a threat to the foundations of society." Society is more important than you are.
Hard to wrap your head around, isn't it?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I understand the differences between the Western vs Russian perspectives. None of that justifies the indiscriminate or deliberate killing, torture, rape, starvation etc of civilians by military forces.


What I don't understand is what Russia is hoping to achieve by these tactics? Wasn't the goal of their invasion to topple the Ukrainian government and bring it and the Ukrainian people back into the Russian sphere? How does terrorizing the Ukrainian people, including millions of its Russian speaking civilians accomplish this? The result of these atrocities will be the complete opposite, since any Ukrainian who can fight will now fight, the people are now solidly behind their government, a new sense of Ukrainian nationhood has been forever strengthened and almost the entire world is watching aghast and one upping each other to hit Russia and support Ukraine. 

State-led atrocities usually have a purpose. The Holocaust was Germany's plan to clear Europe of Jews and other "_Untermensch_". What's Putin's aim in terrorizing Ukraine's people? Even if they wanted to, these civilians have no means of forcing Ukraine to capitulate.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Not if you're an enemy of the people and a threat to the foundations of society." Society is more important than you are.
> Hard to wrap your head around, isn't it?



But Putin keeps saying he's liberating the Ukrainian people from those enemies. You can't liberate people by killing them. The fundamental problem here is not different views of society. It's about aggressive narcissists in positions of power who refuse to accept ANY view except their own.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

The irony of all this, is that Russia is "liberating" the Ukraine from the "Nazis" the same way that the Germans "liberated" the Ukraine from the Communists 80 years ago...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What I don't understand is what Russia is hoping to achieve by these tactics? Wasn't the goal of their invasion to topple the Ukrainian government and bring it and the Ukrainian people back into the Russian sphere? How does terrorizing the Ukrainian people, including millions of its Russian speaking civilians accomplish this? The result of these atrocities will be the complete opposite, since any Ukrainian who can fight will now fight, the people are now solidly behind their government, a new sense of Ukrainian nationhood has been forever strengthened and almost the entire world is watching aghast and one upping each other to hit Russia and support Ukraine.
> 
> State-led atrocities usually have a purpose. The Holocaust was Germany's plan to clear Europe of Jews and other "_Untermensch_". What's Putin's aim in terrorizing Ukraine's people? Even if they wanted to, these civilians have no means of forcing Ukraine to capitulate.



The idea may be to break the will of the people to resist. It can also have a complete opposite effect as we can see.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The idea may be to break the will of the people to resist.


Has that ever worked? If some foreign power killed our families, would we walk away? Damn no, we'd be standing side by side gunning to kill as many of the scum that we can. Once a man has nothing left to live for, he's most dangerous.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The idea may be to break the will of the people to resist. It can also have a complete opposite effect as we can see.


When the Germans rolled into the Ukraine, the people greeted them as liberators, showering the troops with flowers and celebrations.

THAT right there, should have been a clue to the OKW that they had the hearts of the people and could have easily exploited the people to turn against the Red Army.

Instead, being typical assholes, they started their pogrom and turned the citizens (rightfully so) against them.

This historical fact seems to have been overlooked by Putler...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The irony of all this, is that Russia is "liberating" the Ukraine from the "Nazis" the same way that the Germans "liberated" the Ukraine from the Communists 80 years ago...


If they weren't Nazis the Germans would have have the smarts to see the Ukrainians as useful people to fight against the Russians. Yes, they did have the RKU and Ukrainian units, my wife's great uncle served in the 14th SS, but the Nazis soon showed their true selves and liquidated the Ukrainians.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has that ever worked? If some foreign power killed our families, would we walk away? Damn no, we'd be standing side by side gunning to kill as many of the scum that we can. Once a man has nothing left to live for, he's most dangerous.



It likely works for some, and not so much for others. Many may think its not worth to the risk to lose their loved ones. Overall, though, I would agree it does not work in the grand scheme of things.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Another idea is to kill all men of fighting age.









Bucha survivors recount 'senseless' horror as they emerge from hiding


As Mykola Pavlyuk stood outside his apartment building in Bucha, tears streamed from his eyes, cutting through the grime on his face. Pavlyuk, 53, was one of the surviving residents of the besieged Ukrainian town, northwest of Kyiv, where gruesome evidence of killings and torture has come to...




www.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Another idea is to kill all men of fighting age.


Militarily that may make sense. The challenge is, the women can shoot too.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

BREAKING NEWS:

_The General Assembly of the United Nations has just voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council during a session in New York.

It follows allegations of war crimes by Kremlin troops in Ukraine.

Before votes were cast, Ukraine's ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya accused Russia of "horrific" abuses – raising the issue of alleged civilian killings in the city of Bucha.

Russia's own representative Gennady Kuzmin condemned the vote, and other nations including North Korea and Syria rallied behind him._


UPDATE: Here are some details on how the vote went. Frankly, I'm surprised at the number of votes against and the number of abstentions:
_
Ninety-three countries voted in favour of the move, 24 against, and there were 58 abstentions.

Among the countries who supported the suspension were the US, EU nations, the UK, and of course Ukraine itself.

China, Syria, and Belarus were among those who voted against the motion.

And India, Egypt, and South Africa were among the nations which abstained._

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## buffnut453 (Apr 7, 2022)

Amnesty International is piling on the evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine:
_
Russian forces executed civilians in various locations in the Kyiv region, according to new testimony published by Amnesty International.

The human rights organisation interviewed more than 20 people from towns and villages near the capital, some were witnesses to, or had direct knowledge of, the violence committed, it says.

"In recent weeks, we have gathered evidence that Russian forces have committed extrajudicial executions and other unlawful killings, which must be investigated as likely war crimes," says Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard.

"Testimonies shows that unarmed civilians in Ukraine are being killed in their homes and streets in acts of unspeakable cruelty and shocking brutality."

In one account given, a woman in a village east of Kyiv told Amnesty two Russian soldiers entered her house on 9 March, killed her husband, then repeatedly raped her at gunpoint while her young son hid in a boiler room nearby.

With Russian forces retreating from the north of Ukraine, disturbing stories of life under occupation have been emerging. The BBC's Jeremy Bowen has been told of Russian troops using villagers as human shields against Ukrainian counter-attacks.

Russia has repeatedly denied that its forces have committed atrocities, and sought to point the finger of blame elsewhere._

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What I don't understand is what Russia is hoping to achieve by these tactics? Wasn't the goal of their invasion to topple the Ukrainian government and bring it and the Ukrainian people back into the Russian sphere? How does terrorizing the Ukrainian people, including millions of its Russian speaking civilians accomplish this? The result of these atrocities will be the complete opposite, since any Ukrainian who can fight will now fight, the people are now solidly behind their government, a new sense of Ukrainian nationhood has been forever strengthened and almost the entire world is watching aghast and one upping each other to hit Russia and support Ukraine.
> 
> State-led atrocities usually have a purpose. The Holocaust was Germany's plan to clear Europe of Jews and other "_Untermensch_". What's Putin's aim in terrorizing Ukraine's people? Even if they wanted to, these civilians have no means of forcing Ukraine to capitulate.


I think you well do know what Russia (The Czar) is hoping to achieve.

That soldiers - especially when they had it meted out to them were (are) likely to go into retribution is nothing uncommon - see those GI's murdered by the e.g. SS or GI's having done the same to Wehrmacht members. Or Wehrmacht soldier having been murdered by Partisans and the Germans massacring a civilian town in return. The Allied bombers had killed 100,000's of civilians during WW2 - and not just Germans.
The USA killed/murdered 1 million? Vietnamese civilians by direct military means. 30 years later many Vietnamese were enthusiastic of US tourists and US manufacturing plants opening
up in their country. 
I wouldn't know how many hundreds of civilian cars and its passengers were "murdered" during the Iraq invasion and occupation - later on especially near coalition military installations. As such no war going nation on this planet can say or claim for itself being innocent of these issues.

The Americans foremost paid load's of money directly and indirectly to Germany in order to "neutralize" the prevailing antipathy held by most Germans after the war.
Maybe the Czar will do the same? if not he will still find "his" reasons for justifying the "horrors of war"
In case he should even win this Ukraine invasion (God forbid) - the Czar will be dictating the books as to who's fault it was - off course the USA and their NATO serfs, who else?
As to how much the remaining beaten Ukrainians are going to agree towards his interpretation? we will see.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Militarily that may make sense. The challenge is, the women can shoot too.



You are correct, those that are not caring for their families.

I would suspect the Russians may be a bit old fashioned in their thinking.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> BREAKING NEWS:
> 
> _The General Assembly of the United Nations has just voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council during a session in New York.
> 
> ...



I’m not surprised at all. We should stop doing business with all the abstaining countries. Especially South Africa. You would think with their history they would be on the side of humanity.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think you well do know what Russia (The Czar) is hoping to achieve.
> 
> That soldiers - especially when they had it meted out to them were (are) likely to go into retribution is nothing uncommon - see those GI's murdered by the e.g. SS or GI's having done the same to Wehrmacht members. Or Wehrmacht soldier having been murdered by Partisans and the Germans massacring a civilian town in return. The Allied bombers had killed 100,000's of civilians during WW2 - and not just Germans.
> The USA killed/murdered 1 million? Vietnamese civilians by direct military means. 30 years later many Vietnamese were enthusiastic of US tourists and US manufacturing plants opening
> ...



Murdered civilians near coalition installations during the Iraq war. Huh? I don’t remember any of that happening while I was there? Hmmm…


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

USA and their NATO serfs…

lol

What a joke.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> USA and their NATO serfs…
> 
> lol
> 
> What a joke.


To you and me, but not to the Czar and those willing to listen to him.

You already forgot these mowed down convoys including hundreds of civilian vehicles? And I am sure that many civilian occupied vehicles were being shot at by Coalition forces
that were simply afraid of maybe getting blown up by some suicide bomber. In any film footage one can see dozens of burned out and shot up civilian vehicles in front of check-points
and military installations.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> To you and me, but not to the Czar and those willing to listen to him.
> 
> You already forgot these mowed down convoys including hundreds of civilian vehicles? And I am sure that many civilian occupied vehicles were being shot at by Coalition forces
> that were simply afraid of maybe getting blown up by some suicide bomber. In any film footage one can see dozens of burned out and shot up civilian vehicles in front of check-points
> ...


You were there and saw this first hand?


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## MIflyer (Apr 7, 2022)

Admittedly, this comes from the notorious Creative News Network, but what it makes clear is that small commercially available drones are a game changer to an extent I do not think anyone has realized. We tend to focus on the Predators, Trusted Wingman, MQ-25, and other full sized drones, but the small OTS ones can have a very large impact. This is a new kind of Airpower.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You were there and saw this first hand?


If you prefer to shut your eyes towards actual occurrences and hundreds of interviews and articles by our "free Western press" - up to you.

Regards
Iagdflieger

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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> If you prefer to shut your eyes towards actual occurrences and hundreds of interviews and articles by our "free Western press" - up to you.
> 
> Regards
> Iagdflieger


изглеждаш добре информиран, другарю


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> To you and me, but not to the Czar and those willing to listen to him.
> 
> You already forgot these mowed down convoys including hundreds of civilian vehicles? And I am sure that many civilian occupied vehicles were being shot at by Coalition forces
> that were simply afraid of maybe getting blown up by some suicide bomber. In any film footage one can see dozens of burned out and shot up civilian vehicles in front of check-points
> ...



Hundreds of civilian vehicles being mowed down?

Hundreds?

lol

Sorry, but that is full of crap. I spent 14 months there, did you? I can tell you that no coalition force indiscriminately mowed down any civilian vehicles.

How do I know this?

There were not hundreds of piled up vehicles in front of our gates. Each camp had signs up telling drivers to slow there vehicle and not approach until called upon.

The only vehicles fired upon were those that ignored the signs and drove at high speed toward the gate. Why were they driving at high speed toward the gate? Because they were insurgents aka the enemy. An insurgent is considered a combative, and as such is not a civilian. Think about it, and lay off the kool-aid a bit.

The US and the Coalition had strict rules of engagement to prevent civilian casualties. Does it prevent all? No, unfortunately not. In many ways it forced us to fight with our hands behind our backs, and many US and coalition troops died because they waited too late to open fire because they thought the insurgents were civilians.

I had a child point a PVC pipe at my helicopter as if it were a MANPAD. At a distance it looked like one. I hesitate a second longer before shooting at him, and thankfully realized it was a PVC pipe and not a MANPAD. If it had been one, that second of hesitation would have likely killed our entire crew. Fortunately for everyone involved, I did not fire on him and we all lived another day.

But if you cannot see the difference between the USA and NATO and what Russia is doing then it is you who has a problem.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> If you prefer to shut your eyes towards actual occurrences and hundreds of interviews and articles by our "free Western press" - up to you.
> 
> Regards
> Iagdflieger



I guess my eyes were closed the entire time I was there.

Show me pics of hundreds of massacred Iraqi Civilians and cars. Lets see the the bodies piling up. Where are these actual occurrences of coalition troops “mowing down” hundreds of civilians?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

I find it highly offensive that anyone would compare what the Russians are doing to what any western NATO nation has done regarding civilian casualties.

Civilian’s are the ones who suffer the most in any war, however, one side takes care to limit civilian pain and suffering. The other takes great care to cause it.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 7, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Go back and replay the videos in posts #s 3695 and 3708. They cover these ideas in ways that us folks "contaminated" with western concepts of human rights can hopefully understand.
> Essentially it's the relationship between the individual and the nation/state. We see the state as existing to preserve and protect the political rights and freedoms of every individual person. Political diversity and freedom of expression reign over our value system. This is so deeply ingrained in us that we have trouble wrapping our heads around the idea that most of the world, especially those with ethnic axes to grind, have a different hierarchy of values. For these people, freedom from fear and freedom from want are viewed as requiring unity in support of a powerful government that can protect them from their ethnic rivals and the vicissitudes of global geopolitics, as well as domestic "terrorists" who might have different (and unsettling) ideas. "Freedom" for these people has an economic and social dimension that is missing from our purely political version, and tends to value social order and planned economy more highly than the extreme levels of freedom of expression we enshrine.
> To them, we look decadent, self indulgent, chaotic, and lacking the political discipline to rein in dissent and forge an economically efficient society. Due to our resource-rich continent and the cumulative wealth it's given us, we've never had to, and the ocean barriers have largely protected us from existential threats.
> Implicit in this is the evolutionary dichotomy between the the sea power state with its broader horizons and multicultural exposure with resulting more progressive outlook, vs the continental power state with its ethnic homogeneity, history of invasions and empire, and more or less continuous existential threat, whether actual or perceived, resulting in a more conservative and authoritarian culture. Each mindset in this dichotomy has great difficulty in understanding and relating to the other, guaranteeing a turbulent past, present, and future.
> Ukraine's history has been largely as a subset of one continental empire or another, and yet in each case it has served as a crossroads and a frontier of these powers, so becoming more culturally akin to a seagoing state than the empires it served. The Kievan Russ of a millennium ago were landlocked norsemen who had voyaged the rivers from Scandinavia and established a cosmopolitan culture that had predated and outshown the rise of Moscow and St Petersburg and The Russian Empire. No wonder they bailed out of the Russian orbit the minute they got a chance. And they're not looking back. Russians can't understand this.



Well-written ... this could be the conclusion of a good passing thesis, in that it wraps up several different trends and strands of history to help explain this current situation. Bravo Zulu.

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## Dimlee (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Any chance Ukraine can retake Crimea? A third Siege of Sevastopol?


By political means, yes. Some day. Siege would be insane.


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## Dimlee (Apr 7, 2022)

Defense Minister Reznikov about the weapons that Ukraine needs.

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## Dimlee (Apr 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good stuff. govinfo
> 
> My guess is the Russians will begin their new offensive against eastern Ukraine and especially Mariupol within the fortnight. How quickly can arms get to the Ukrainian forces? It is interesting that Russia hasn't hit the Ukrainian railways or interior bridges and highways - they have to know that's the route the new weapons come by.


They did hit them. Just not so often as other targets. Earlier today they have attacked a railway in the Donetsk region and three evacuation trains with civilians were stuck.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Sorry, I don't do Twitter. Been ravaged enough on Facebook. Sounds like an interesting thread, though. Anybody care to summarize?


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## tomo pauk (Apr 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Sorry, I don't do Twitter. Been ravaged enough on Facebook. Sounds like an interesting thread, though. Anybody care to summarize?



Lady points out that neo-nazism/far-right in Ukraine is no worse than in other European countries, and that actually Russia is a hot bed for those extremists.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But Putin keeps saying he's liberating the Ukrainian people from those enemies. You can't liberate people by killing them. The fundamental problem here is not different views of society. It's about aggressive narcissists in positions of power who refuse to accept ANY view except their own.


You can't refuse OR accept a view that you can't understand, and it's not just those in power who are thus afflicted, it's the general population, who are fed "information" of a bias confirming sort that narrows their vision.
Our boy Putin is a "true believer" in the Eric Hoffer sense, an unreconstructed soviet with a 21st century sheen on his hammer and sickle. Even his skeptical classmates from school days say he always was a dedicated communist from the get-go. His first duty station out of KGB school was with GDR internal security, where a particularly harsh version of communism was practiced, and even they found him a bit hard to take.
I think his sense of "blood and soil" kinship to his fellow ethnic slavs, the Ukrainians, blinded him to the rapid shift in their deeply held allegiances in the last decade. His image of pre-2008 Ukraine hasn't been updated, and he thinks the separatists are representative of Ukrainians as a whole. I think he sincerely believed he was offering them liberation from a poorly understood "puppet statehood" to the west. Remember, he was raised by a generation whose personal experience of the west was limited to the nazis. Small wonder.
Once his attempt at a swift "bloodless" coup bogged down and failed, his generals followed their cold war style playbooks for reducing resistance and pacifying conquered territories, using an army designed for a nuclear WWIII and not suited for asymmetric urban warfare. Meanwhile, the mouthpieces rumbled on, oblivious to The Emperor's nudity.
Anyone who's paid attention to Chechnya, Georgia, or Syria knows how that playbook goes. Only now it's being applied to blue eyed, blond, eloquent, white people, and we're sitting up and taking notice.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It seems wrong to be awarding a bacon for a description of such a heinous act. However, the Western nations will need to do exactly this sort of thing to call out Russian disinformation and prove to the rest of the world the true nature of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


I knew what you meant.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 7, 2022)

The ”troops“ who are committing atrocities are either untrained conscripts or mercenaries. 
Young and untrained, led by incompetent officers, and being mowed down left and right. They are more a mob than soldiers. Forced to scavenge and becoming animals. No training, no discipline. This is what Field Marshal Kaputin fielded. 
Being a gifted KGB officer, he brought out his correct political thought team, Wagner Group, when folks resisted liberation. 
My two cents.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 7, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> To you and me, but not to the Czar and those willing to listen to him.


We don’t need to care what Putin thinks nor what the Russian people think. This war isn’t going to end by winning over the hearts and minds of the Russian people or enciting regime change. Putin and the Russian people have played their hand. This war will end when the Russians are defeated in the field and pushed out of Ukraine and when Ukraine is strong enough to prevent future Russian attacks. After that Russians can sit in their now sanctioned and boycotted sh#thole of a failed state and rot. Our job in the West is to expedite the above.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 7, 2022)

Posted a Ukrainian folk song with a long history in Ukrainian resistance in the "What are you Listening to" thread.



What Are You Listening To???

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Murdered civilians near coalition installations during the Iraq war. Huh? I don’t remember any of that happening while I was there? Hmmm…


I do. Numerous Coalition checkpoints and installations were targeted by suicide bombers. They usually attacked at times calculated to cause maximum carnage among the civilians waiting to get in or out. Same thing happened in Afghanistan. 13 Marines died during the evacuation, but hundreds of Afghan civilians, attempting to flee for their lives, perished. 
That the US followed up with a poorly executed drone strike that killed a carload of friendlies is just the icing on the cake of that debacle.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I do. Numerous Coalition checkpoints and installations were targeted by suicide bombers. They usually attacked at times calculated to cause maximum carnage among the civilians waiting to get in or out. Same thing happened in Afghanistan. 13 Marines died during the evacuation, but hundreds of Afghan civilians, attempting to flee for their lives, perished.
> That the US followed up with a poorly executed drone strike that killed a carload of friendlies is just the icing on the cake of that debacle.



What you describe is not the “mowing down” and murdering of civilians that he claimed.

Did you run around shooting at civilians for sport? Where you ordered to? If so, lets put your ass in jail. Of course I know you did not. Why? Because we don’t have a policy of doing those things. Because we place a value on human life. We try and mitigate civilian casualties. That is a fact.


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## Jabberwocky (Apr 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The ”troops“ who are committing atrocities are either untrained conscripts or mercenaries.



I think it's far too early to draw that conclusion.

There have been dozens (at least) of document atrocities across occupied areas of Ukraine. Including plenty in areas where elite and professional Russian army forces are the primary operating forces.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What you describe is not the “mowing down” and murdering of civilians that he claimed.
> 
> Did you run around shooting at civilians for sport? Where you ordered to? If so, lets put your ass in jail. Of course I know you did not. Why? Because we don’t have a policy of doing those things. Because we place a value on human life. We try and mitigate civilian casualties. That is a fact.


Correct. Methinks he is channeling his "Full Metal Jacket" flashbacks.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Correct. Methinks he is channeling his "Full Metal Jacket" flashbacks.



It’s easy, you don’t lead them as much…


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## Jabberwocky (Apr 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What you describe is not the “mowing down” and murdering of civilians that he claimed.
> 
> Did you run around shooting at civilians for sport? Where you ordered to? If so, lets put your ass in jail. Of course I know you did not. Why? Because we don’t have a policy of doing those things*. Because we place a value on human life. We try and mitigate civilian casualties. That is a fact.*



That's the ideal for forces on the ground. And how things should and are intended to operate.

Mitigate doesn't mean eliminate though. And mistakes happen. The fog or war is a real thing and bombs and missiles don't care what or who they hit. Rules can be inadequate, or get sidestepped or ignored.

In practice, the US air war in the Middle East has killed thousands of civilians, potentially tens of thousands. Per reporting from the _New York Times_ in early 2022, the Pentagon's own data acknowledges *1,417 civilians have died in airstrikes in the campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria* to the end of 2019, with a *further 188 civilian deaths acknowledged in Afghanistan* from US air operations since 2018.

That likely understates the extent of civilian deaths. Potentially to a massive degree. 

A RAND study, mandated by the US Congress and released in early 2022, found that actual civilian casualties could literally be an order of magnitude higher than the figures officially released. For instance, the DoD's official figure for civilian casualties caused by US & Coalition operations in Syria in 2019 is *21*. The *lowest *NGO assessment was 490 (a 23 times multiple), the highest was 1,118 (a 53 times multiple).

RAND also reported the US military's own analysis on post strike damage assessments conducted in 2010 found that these *missed civilian casualties in 19 out of 21 cases*. Because video/photo assessment had already been performed pre-and post strike and those had found no civilian casualties, any other claims of such were dismissed as 'not credible'. 

The US military is generally satisfied that its own photos and video are 'credible', so when third party information comes up that contradicts this, in better than 50% of cases its just dismissed. From that RAND study: _"When military sources showed no evidence of civilian casualties—often because they did not put forth sufficient effort to engage external sources—the U.S. military often used such findings as justification to conclude that reports of civilian casualties were not credible." _In other words, if I refuse to see it, then it didn't happen

There is a problem. If there wasn't the US wouldn't be improving how it assesses, reports and mitigates civilian casualties.

This is an emotive issue, and I'm not accusing the US of a policy of deliberately targeting civilians. But it's clear that more could be done to both limit civilian casualties and to acknowledge them when they do actually occur.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

The only way to eliminate collateral damage, is to eliminate warfare.

There is absolutely no way to prevent non-combatants from being caught in the crossfire, no matter how hard a military tries.

However, there is a big ass difference between injuring/killing civilians while engaging a legitimate target and intentionally targeting civilians in the street, children's hospitals, driving an AFV over a civilian in their automobile, executing bound civilians, shooting a little boy and his grandmother in a boat.

I honestly have no f**king idea how anyone can justify what Russia is doing to the Ukraine at the moment.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> That's the ideal for forces on the ground. And how things should and are intended to operate.
> 
> Mitigate doesn't mean eliminate though. And mistakes happen. The fog or war is a real thing and bombs and missiles don't care what or who they hit. Rules can be inadequate, or get sidestepped or ignored.
> 
> ...



I never said mistakes do not happen. We however do not mow down and murder civilians as our friend is insinuating.

War is very murkey, believe me, I know. It’s especially not easy when your enemy has even more disregard for human life. They place AA guns in school yards and strap bomb vests to children. Imagine how some 24 year old kid must feel who just blasted a poor kid walking at him with a bomb, or the pilot who has to engage that AA gun.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The only way to eliminate collateral damage, is to eliminate warfare.
> 
> There is absolutely no way to prevent non-combatants from being caught in the crossfire, no matter how hard a military tries.
> 
> ...

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## wlewisiii (Apr 7, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Apr 7, 2022)

Wars should be like real life Survivor. Our 10 best guys and your 10 best dropped at opposite ends of an Island. Whoever survives wins. I can Dream.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 7, 2022)

A Bucha couple said they were hunted by Russian soldiers because they had relatives in the Ukrainian army


"They didn't knock on the door, they immediately opened fire," one of the Bucha residents said in a video interview, per an off-camera translator.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 7, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Wars should be like real life Survivor. Our 10 best guys and your 10 best dropped at opposite ends of an Island. Whoever survives wins. I can Dream.


Best?
Hell no - let the politicians fight for the people. These assholes start the wars and they were elected to represent the people, so let them do their job.

And I am not talking modern combat, *eff* no.
They will go into a large arena like the Roman Colliseum, armed only with edged weapons so they can look their adversary in the eye.

The rules are simple:
There is no quarter allowed - kill or be killed.
The last man/woman/whatever standing has won the war.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This war will end when the Russians are defeated in the field and pushed out of Ukraine and when Ukraine is strong enough to prevent future Russian attacks. After that Russians can sit in their now sanctioned and boycotted sh#thole of a failed state and rot.


Before they'll let that happen they'll resort to the nuclear option on a global scale. "If we're going down we're gonna take you with us!"

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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)



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## at6 (Apr 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> BREAKING NEWS:
> 
> _The General Assembly of the United Nations has just voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council during a session in New York.
> 
> ...


It's time to find out how many of those countries voting in favor of Russia or abstaining receive U.S. aid and immediately cut off all funding to them. Let Russia and China give them International Welfare checks.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 8, 2022)

Interesting vid on NATO giving safe harbour to a Ukrainian fighter jet.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)

This is from 1998 and is fully compatible with NATO ammo rather than Russian 152 ammo. They'll have to get western ammo for it but that should be an even better artillery piece than the 2S3 Akatsiya. Perhaps the US can provide them with some M712 Copperhead rounds for it

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Perhaps the US can provide them with some M712 Copperhead rounds for it


I like it. I doubt Ukraine is buying them though. More likely Slovakia is otherwise compensated.

As the M712 is laser guided, does that require an aircraft, drone or man on the ground to light up the target? If that’s the case perhaps the GPS guided M982 Excalibur is the better choice?

There‘s also this…






SMArt 155 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)

Originally it was designed for a man on the ground with a laser designator but drones do it now.


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## Jamoliva (Apr 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Best?
> Hell no - let the politicians fight for the people. These assholes start the wars and they were elected to represent the people, so let them do their job.
> 
> And I am not talking modern combat, *eff* no.
> ...


Major General Smedley Butler moment... War is a racket.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2022)

In case you all hadn't picked up on this, apparently Russia attacked a railway station in Kramatorsk. Over 30 people were killed but the tally may get much higher. 

Over 9,000 people were evacuated through that station yesterday and there were apparently thousands of people at the location when the attack happened. This was the scene at the station on Tuesday:






Here are a few pics of the aftermath of the attack:











The last series are potentially the worst of all. According to Ukrainian authorities, this is a section of one of the weapons that hit the railway station. The inscription on the rear reads "For the children":
















Now, I have to admit to being somewhat skeptical that the only substantial piece of weapon wreckage includes such an inflammatory message. However, if it's true, then it clearly demonstrates that Russia are deliberately targeting civilians. If it's a piece of Ukrainian propaganda, then I fear Kyiv may be overplaying their hand as it will cause all Ukrainian claims to be questioned. The very best thing Ukraine can do now is accurately report and document atrocities. There should be no need for amplification.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2022)

Pink Floyd has recorded its first music in more than 30 years. “Hey, Hey, Rise Up" features vocals by Andriy Khlyvnyuk of the Ukrainian band, Boombox, who recorded himself in full military gear singing the folk song, "The Red Viburnum in the Meadow,"to the empty streets in Kyiv's Sofiyskaya Square.

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## Denniss (Apr 8, 2022)

Strange message on that rocket, if that's really true then Putlers propaganda has worked its way deep into his population (just as intended), it apparently made soldiers believe the Ukrainian "Nazis" are basically "eating children".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In case you all hadn't picked up on this, apparently Russia attacked a railway station in Kramatorsk. Over 30 people were killed but the tally may get much higher.
> 
> Over 9,000 people were evacuated through that station yesterday and there were apparently thousands of people at the location when the attack happened. This was the scene at the station on Tuesday:
> 
> ...



Agreed, I hope for Ukraine this is true. I find it very hard to believe. Not that Russia would not target the station, but that the only surviving piece would just conveniently happen to be this.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

I find it hard to believe, after the Russians lined up their artillery on Mariupol, or the bombing of the theater there that was marked "children", or the other crimes committed by Russian troops, that the Ukrainians would feel the need to fake something like that.

But I've been wrong before.

I also find it hard to believe the Russians would be so stupid as to decorate a weapon with such a message.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Pink Floyd has recorded its first music in more than 30 years. “Hey, Hey, Rise Up" features vocals by Andriy Khlyvnyuk of the Ukrainian band, Boombox, who recorded himself in full military gear singing the folk song, "The Red Viburnum in the Meadow,"to the empty streets in Kyiv's Sofiyskaya Square.



Gilmore has a Ukrainian Daughter in Law and Grandchildren.

You can buy it here: Amazon product

Proceeds go to Ukrainian charity.

That was supposed to be a link to the MP3 on Amazon... sigh.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 8, 2022)

I think Denniss is correct. The writing on the weapon was something like “revenge for the children“. Otherwise, the RF forces are really sick.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I find it hard to believe, after the Russians lined up their artillery on Mariupol, or the bombing of the theater there that was marked "children", or the other crimes committed by Russian troops, that the Ukrainians would feel the need to fake something like that.
> 
> But I've been wrong before.
> 
> I also find it hard to believe the Russians would be so stupid as to decorate a weapon with such a message.



I don’t find it hard to believe. They need to stir up the emotions of the west to cause them to action.

That single pic there did not make a single person in the west (accept a few crazy nuts here and there) to say “Fuck Russia! Let’s go!”


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## Denniss (Apr 8, 2022)

Is it known what kind of rocket this was?
Somewhat strange to see a large part of a rocket survive intact. Maybe a dud or the warhead separated from the rest prior to impact?

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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Is it known what kind of rocket this was?
> Somewhat strange to see a large part of a rocket survive intact. Maybe a dud or the warhead separated from the rest prior to impact?


My understanding is it was an SS-21 Scarab, a short-range ballistic missile in the same category as the old US Lance missile. That could well be the booster segment following along behind the warhead on the ballistic trajectory.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> My understanding is it was an SS-21 Scarab, a short-range ballistic missile in the same category as the old US Lance missile. That could well be the booster segment following along behind the warhead on the ballistic trajectory.



Yep...definitely looks like an SS-21 missile. The lattice guidance vanes at the rear are rather distinctive:







Here's another view of the missile wreckage:






Note the lattice guidance vane in the foreground. The general appearance looks realistic....the missile body hit, parts broke off and the body flipped to its position of rest. I'm just not sure about the spray-painted message.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 8, 2022)

And on the lighter side of things...

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## GrauGeist (Apr 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In case you all hadn't picked up on this, apparently Russia attacked a railway station in Kramatorsk. Over 30 people were killed but the tally may get much higher.
> 
> Over 9,000 people were evacuated through that station yesterday and there were apparently thousands of people at the location when the attack happened. This was the scene at the station on Tuesday:
> 
> ...


I looked at that wreckage as close as possible and the words doesn't appear to have been applied after it landed, the lettering is distorted in proportion to the buckling of the surface and too low to the ground to have been done afterwards.

In other words, it truly appears to have been applied before being launched

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I looked at that wreckage as close as possible and the words doesn't appear to have been applied after it landed, the lettering is distorted in proportion to the buckling of the surface and too low to the ground to have been done afterwards.
> 
> In other words, it truly appears to have been applied before being launched



Agree...it's just "convenient" that the text is entirely visible and even the right way up to be read. 

Unsurprisingly, Russia is denying the attack. They're claiming that they don't use SS-21 any more. However, there are obvious holes in that theory, as outlined by the BBC:

_Russia has denied the attack on Kramatorsk railway station and claims missile fragments found nearby are from a Tochka-U tactical projectile "only used by the Ukrainian armed forces".
Its ministry of defence announced it had stopped deploying the weapons in 2019 in favour of the more modern Iskander-M missiles, according to Russian media.
Ukraine's Donetsk governor has, however, accused the Russian military of using the Tochka-U to detonate cluster munitions in the attack on Kramatorsk.
Manisha Ganguly, an investigative journalist for the BBC World Service, has been looking into Russia's claims and believes they don't add up.
She says there's evidence Russia used Tochka-U tactical missiles on 24 February during a strike on a hospital in Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, which killed four civilians and wounded 10.
An Amnesty International missile investigator analysing photos of the weapon scrap linked to the incident determined a "9M79 Tochka ballistic missile was used in the attack".
These weapons are extremely inaccurate, regularly missing their targets by half a kilometre or more, Amnesty International has said.
Tochka missiles were also used on 19 March in Luhansk, according to the Ukrainian MoD. The Ukrainian military say they shot down one of these missiles with their air defence system._

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In other words, it truly appears to have been applied before being launched


And smacks more of ordnancemen's spontaneous impulse than any kind of official messaging. But the official messaging has clearly sunk in.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And smacks more of ordnancemen's spontaneous impulse than any kind of official messaging. But the official messaging has clearly sunk in.



I chalked a couple of bombs up in 1991 m'self: "Here's a big kiss from the G-man."

In the news:



> Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledged in an interview published on Thursday that Russia had sustained "significant losses of troops" and called it a "huge tragedy."











Kremlin spokesman admits ‘we have significant losses of troops,’ calls it ‘a huge tragedy’


Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledged in an interview published on Thursday that Russia had sustained “significant losses of troops” and called it a “huge trag…




thehill.com





I won't repeat the lies he peddled throughout the interview, but I thought it important that Russia is perhaps admitting what we all already know. Maybe their come-to-Jesus moment is coming soon?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree...it's just "convenient" that the text is entirely visible and even the right way up to be read.
> 
> Unsurprisingly, Russia is denying the attack. They're claiming that they don't use SS-21 any more. However, there are obvious holes in that theory, as outlined by the BBC:
> 
> ...


There was a photo about a month ago showing the wreckage of an SS-21 in a town square, plus Ukraine Drone footage shows a Bayraktar destroying a BAZ-5921 launcher over a month ago.

Actually I beleive the Ukrainian drones have destroyed several.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I chalked a couple of bombs up in 1991 m'self: "Here's a big kiss from the G-man."
> 
> In the news:
> 
> ...



How very Russian of him to call it a tragedy that his invading soldiers have sustained heavy losses yet they launch missiles at women and children.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How very Russian of him to call it a tragedy that his invading soldiers have sustained heavy losses yet they launch missiles at women and children.



Right, the hypocrisy is breathtaking.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2022)

Interesting, and rather chilling, article about Russian "filtration camps":









What are Russian 'filtration camps'?


New details have emerged of how Russian soldiers have forcibly removed tens of thousands of Ukrainians from occupied areas and sent them to “filtration camps” for hours of intense interrogation before shipping them off to various cities around Russia, according to multiple reports.




news.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

buffnut453
's post upthread about Ukrainian atrocities seems borne out, sadly:

_
April 7 (Reuters) - A social media video verified by Reuters and geolocated to an area west of Kyiv appears to show Ukrainian forces shooting and killing a captured and badly wounded Russian soldier.

Three rounds were fired by an off-camera individual into the soldier, who is wearing one of the white armbands used by Russian forces. He is bleeding heavily, lying in a road beside a dead soldier, and appears to be breathing with difficulty.


"Look he's still alive, he's wheezing already ... It's finished," says a voice before two rounds are fired. A third is fired after the soldier continues moving.

The video then pans to two other dead soldiers in the road who also have white armbands. One of them has his hands tied behind his back and has been shot in the head. A Russian armoured vehicle has been abandoned nearby._









Video appears to show Ukrainian forces killing Russian captive


A social media video verified by Reuters and geolocated to an area west of Kyiv appears to show Ukrainian forces shooting and killing a captured and badly wounded Russian soldier.




www.reuters.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Strange message on that rocket, if that's really true then Putlers propaganda has worked its way deep into his population (just as intended), it apparently made soldiers believe the Ukrainian "Nazis" are basically "eating children".


Let's face it, from the Russian perspective there are misplaced Russian sympathizers in Ukraine, worthy of being "saved" with a little re-education, and everyone else is a nazi, fit only for extermination or for slave labor. The nazis are showing their true colors by voting with their feet or by criminally assassinating Russian troops. Children? "Nits grow into lice!"
The more nazis who escape to the west, the more problems the future Ukrainian SSR will have with infiltrators and partisans.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

_
Slovakia has sent an S-300 mobile anti-aircraft system to Ukraine, bolstering its defenses against Russian airstrikes.

Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger confirmed the news Friday, as he visited Kyiv alongside EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Ukraine is "bravely defending its sovereign country and us, too. It is our duty to help," Heger said via Twitter, decrying the loss of human life under Russia's invasion of its neighbor.

The Ukrainian military already has a supply of the S-300 systems, but it has lost a number of the weapons during the war with Russia. The system's original design was created in the Soviet Union, and it can target aircraft and cruise missiles more than 30,000 feet in the air.

Slovakia had previously said that it would ship S-300 systems to Ukraine, if Slovakia's NATO allies promise to backfill them with other weapons._









War in Ukraine live updates: Russian rocket kills at least 50 people as they were trying to evacuate, Ukraine says


A Ukrainian official says about 100 others were hospitalized after the attack on a train station in the eastern city Kramatorsk. The Kremlin denies any Russian involvement. The death toll includes five children.



www.npr.org

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Best?
> Hell no - let the politicians fight for the people. These assholes start the wars and they were elected to represent the people, so let them do their job.
> 
> And I am not talking modern combat, *eff* no.
> ...


I can LIVE with that

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## buffnut453 (Apr 8, 2022)

Some interesting stuff here about Russia's claims not to be using SS-21. 

Some things of note:
1. Apparently, the SS-21 missile body often survives impact if the cluster munition warhead is used.
2. Images apparently showing SS-21 TELs in Belarus give lie to the Russian message that they've retired all their SS-21s.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

And further to my above post about the S-300 being given to Ukraine:

_
President Biden confirmed Friday that Slovakia transferred a Soviet-era S-300 air defense system to Ukraine and said that the U.S. would reposition an American Patriot missile system to Slovakia in return. 

"I want to thank the Slovakian government for providing an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine, something [Ukrainian] President Zelenskyy has personally raised with me in our conversations," Biden said in a statement on Friday. "To enable this transfer and ensure the continued security of Slovakia, the United States will reposition a U.S. Patriot missile system to Slovakia." _









US to send Patriot system to Slovakia to offset S-300 transfer to Ukraine


President Biden confirmed Friday that Slovakia transferred a Soviet-era S-300 air defense system to Ukraine and said that the U.S. would reposition an American Patriot missile system to Slovakia in…




thehill.com





This is the right thing to do.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

_Russia's so-called special operation in Ukraine could end in the "foreseeable future," as its goals are being reached, a Kremlin spokesperson said Friday. 

"The operation continues; *the goals are being achieved*. Substantive work is being carried out both through the military in terms of advancing the operation, and through the [peace] negotiators who are in the negotiation process with Ukrainian counterparts," Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to multiple outlets. 

Asked about the timeline for such a completion, Peskov said, "We are talking about the foreseeable future." 

The comments are sure to be taken with a grain of salt by Western and Ukrainian leaders, who in the past week have frequently warned that Moscow is gearing up for an assault on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. _









Kremlin spokesman says Ukraine operation could end ‘in foreseeable future’


Russia’s so-called special operation in Ukraine could end in the “foreseeable future,” as its goals are being reached, a Kremlin spokesperson said Friday. “The operation continues; the goals …




thehill.com







Hat-tip to good ole Rob.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 8, 2022)

Good explanation on the Russian mindset.

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## Ralph Haus (Apr 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good explanation on the Russian mindset.



Now, that was depressing!

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## GTX (Apr 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> it apparently made soldiers believe the Ukrainian "Nazis" are basically "eating children".


Well the Qanon morons believe it...

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## GTX (Apr 8, 2022)

First Australian Bushmasters on their way with new paint scheme. at this stage 20 are being gifted.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 8, 2022)

Those are some tough looking vehicles

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Those are some tough looking vehicles



Reading the Wiki, they seem pretty bad-ass. I've got no doubt the Ukrainians will put them to good use.


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## MIflyer (Apr 8, 2022)

Remains of an SS-21 missile that hit the train station, short range solid fueled ballistic that also has cruise missile mode. But the UKR is equipped with those missiles, too.

Read today that Romania is still flying Mig-21's, which are being replaced with used F-16's from Norway. Had no idea anyone in Europe was till flying Fishbeds.




i


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## GrauGeist (Apr 8, 2022)

MIflyer said:


> Remains of an SS-21 missile that hit the train station, short range solid fueled ballistic that also has cruise missile mode. But the UKR is equipped with those missiles, too.
> 
> Read today that Romania is still flying Mig-21's, which are being replaced with used F-16's from Norway. Had no idea anyone in Europe was till flying Fishbeds.


I beleive Croatia is still operating MiG-21s.
Bulgaria has long since retired theirs and most are gone, except for a few that are on display in various locations, like the one at Burgas Airport.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I beleive Croatia is still operating *on* MiG-21s.



Bolding added.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Those are some tough looking vehicles


IDK, they look more apt for riot police putting down civil disobedience than for transporting infantry into combat.


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## MIflyer (Apr 8, 2022)

Last I heard, Jordan was still flying F-5's. They augmented the ones they got from the US with some from Europe.

And I understand that India decided their Mig-21's were too hazardous to fly any more.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 8, 2022)

I bet Ukraine could do well with some loaner armed trainers, especially those they’re accustomed to, like the L-39 Albatros. There must be a lot of these about Aero L-39 Albatros - Wikipedia

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I bet Ukraine could do well with some loaner armed trainers, especially those they’re accustomed to, like the L-39 Albatros. There must be a lot of these about Aero L-39 Albatros - Wikipedia
> 
> View attachment 664156


Hell, why not A37 Dragonflies? There must be a bunch of those kicking around.😀

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I bet Ukraine could do well with some loaner armed trainers, especially those they’re accustomed to, like the L-39 Albatros. There must be a lot of these about Aero L-39 Albatros - Wikipedia
> 
> View attachment 664156


This was mentioned earlier about 100 pages ago. The L39 would be perfect as more than likely many if not all the current UAF pilots have probably flown them. What's needed is the L39ZA which is the dedicated light attack version with extra pylons, strengthened landing gear and a centerline GSh-23L cannon. The dedicated trainer versions would have to be modified for any type of attack mission, and that could take time to complete. 

The great thing about the L39 is the engine is made in the Ukraine.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 8, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hell, why not A37 Dragonflies? There must be a bunch of those kicking around.😀


There's some in Central and South America, I doubt the countries still operating them would want to give them up. I doubt there's any left in the US and I believe the last of the T-37s were being cut up.


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## Glider (Apr 8, 2022)

I would hope that a fair bit of equipment is stored in various Nato countries that the Ukrainian Army would be more than grateful to have in their control.

From a UK position the following have either recently been replaced or the use has dropped considerably and are either low tech or widely used by other nations

L118 Sniper rifles
GPMG (Largely replaced in the infantry)
81mm Mortars 
L118 105mm gun (Significantly reduced numbers)
M109 (replaced by the AS90 but was pretty Much standard across NATO)

I have stayed away from high tech kit such as Challenger tanks which would need a huge logistical tail

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## at6 (Apr 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> "Nazis" are basically "eating children".


I thought only Putin did that.

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## MiTasol (Apr 9, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hell, why not A37 Dragonflies? There must be a bunch of those kicking around.😀



But no-one in Ukraine would know how to operate them and what they are capable of so that means weeks of systems school and flight training before they go operational. The L-39 is a far better option as many of the Ukrainian pilots have experience on the type so just a quick refresher and differences course.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> But no-one in Ukraine would know how to operate them and what they are capable of so that means weeks of systems school and flight training before they go operational.


Gotcha! You took me seriously. That was meant to be tongue in cheek. Maybe I should have mentioned something even more ridiculous. Bird Dog? Spad? Skylane?

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## MiTasol (Apr 9, 2022)

Congratulations - not the first and not the last time I will be caught. I still give you bacon.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> From a UK position the following have either recently been replaced or the use has dropped considerably and are either low tech or widely used by other nations
> 
> L118 Sniper rifles
> GPMG (Largely replaced in the infantry)
> ...


I believe the FV433 Abbot SPG has recently left UK service. With its compact size and mobility it looks ideal for Ukrainian needs. Would they have been scrapped?


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Congratulations - not the first and not the last time I will be caught. I still give you bacon.


Well it is a nice cup. He will be proud to put it in his house.

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## Glider (Apr 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe the FV433 Abbot SPG has recently left UK service. With its compact size and mobility it looks ideal for Ukrainian needs. Would they have been scrapped?


Scrapped or sold. You often see them in private hands.

The M109 was widely used across NATO and there is a good chance that a decent number would be available for transfer. Also of course the 155mm M109 was a good deal more effective than the 105mm armed Abbot

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## wlewisiii (Apr 9, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Apr 9, 2022)

Reality

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## GTX (Apr 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Those are some tough looking vehicles

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## GTX (Apr 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, they look more apt for riot police putting down civil disobedience than for transporting infantry into combat.


They have served very well in Afghanistan and Iraq for years both by Australia and others.









The Bushmaster: from concept to combat | The Strategist


When David Nicolson and his fellow soldiers in Combat Team Alpha from the Royal Australian Regiment’s 2nd Battalion served in a remote outpost in Afghanistan’s Mirabad Valley, there was a standing joke in the unit ...




www.aspistrategist.org.au





These were also what Ukrainian President Zelenskyy specifically asked for from Australia.

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## GTX (Apr 9, 2022)

Somewhat off topic but the following version is also on offer for future UK requirement:

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## GTX (Apr 9, 2022)

Ukraine: Johnson pledges aid to Zelensky in Kyiv meeting


The PM offers Ukraine 120 armoured vehicles during a visit No 10 calls a "show of solidarity" .



www.bbc.com





Any idea what specific armoured vehicles and anti-ship missiles?


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## MiTasol (Apr 9, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Well it is a nice cup. He will be proud to put it in his house.
> 
> View attachment 664213



A cup with bacon. What could possibly beat that. Thank you, and more bacon.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 9, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Well it is a nice cup. He will be proud to put it in his house.
> 
> View attachment 664213


Are you kidding? Onyx and Ebony will have that down and debaconized before you can say the word "de-bacon-ized"! It'll look pretty silly without its primary operational component.

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## MiTasol (Apr 9, 2022)

ahhh but the smell will linger so that will be some solace
(and why would I leave the bacon in the pan anyway?)

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 9, 2022)

_
Russia has put general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of its invasion in Ukraine as Moscow's forces regroup after failing to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, according to the BBC and The New York Times. 

The BBC was first to report Saturday that the general was appointed to head Russia's ongoing assault on Ukraine, citing Western officials. 

The Times reported that Dvornikov, commander of Russia's southern military district, has significant combat experience in Syria, where he commanded Russian forces for a year beginning in 2015.

Prior to Dvornikov's appointment, no central commander was directing Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine, the Times reported, citing U.S. officials.

The appointment comes as Russian forces have completely withdrawn from positions in the north of Ukraine, around Kyiv and Chernihiv, after failing to take the Ukrainian capital and even being pushed back as they attempted to capture it._









Russia puts general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of Ukraine invasion: reports


Russia has put general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of its invasion in Ukraine as Moscow’s forces regroup after failing to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, according to the BBC and The…




thehill.com





Paraphrasing Admiral Halsey, this is quite the hot potato they've handed him.

It strikes me that the absence of an overall commander may have something to do with the disjointed lack of co-ordination between Russian forces. If that's correct, we might see more-efficient Russian ops in the next few weeks.

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## MiTasol (Apr 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russia has put general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of its invasion in Ukraine as Moscow's forces regroup after failing to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, according to the BBC and The New York Times. _
> 
> .


One of the papers I read this morning said he has a history of targeting civilians. From what has been seen so far that seems to be the Russian preference. Maybe they are scared of people who can fight back

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Another general KIA? How many so far? When was the last war so many generals get KIA, WW2?


This’ll be the next one I reckon.









Russia puts general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of Ukraine invasion: reports


Russia has put general Aleksandr Dvornikov in charge of its invasion in Ukraine as Moscow’s forces regroup after failing to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, according to the BBC and The New York Times. The BBC was first to report Saturday that the general was appointed to head Russia’s...




news.yahoo.com





I expect US SIGINT will be letting Ukraine know exactly where and when to strike. My guess is Dvornikov is KIA before the end of the month.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> View attachment 664230


Nice. I wonder if Canada could send some LAV IIIs?



https://retiree.gdls.com/products/LAV/LAV-III.html

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> One of the papers I read this morning said he has a history of targeting civilians. From what has been seen so far that seems to be the Russian preference. Maybe they are scared of people who can fight back



That was my first thought when I read that he'd commanded in Syria, that this signals a renewed assault on civilians, and importantly for Ukraine as a nation, their industrial infrastructure. They may be aiming to ruin Ukrainian industry for a generation whether or not they win or lose the battle.

I've also read that the concentration of Russian forces in Donbas will be a quite a bit higher than any other offensive of theirs in Ukraine thus far, in order to aid their chances of success. I haven't seen firm numbers and so can't vouch for this, of course.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've also read that the concentration of Russian forces in Donbas will be a quite a bit higher than any other offensive of theirs in Ukraine thus far, in order to aid their chances of success.


I can’t recall another war of this scale where both sides so publicly announced their redeployments for a coming battle. The Russians are concentrating their forces for an offensive into eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine is concentrating their forces to counter it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I can’t recall another war of this scale where both sides so publicly announced their redeployments for a coming battle. The Russians are concentrating their forces for an offensive into eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine is concentrating their forces to counter it.



Most of what I've heard about Russian deployments have come from Western or Ukrainian reports. Most of what I've heard about Ukrainian deployments has come from the Ukrainians, probably as an attempt to settle civilian nerves and encourage the civvies to GTFO before the shooting ramps up.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 9, 2022)

With the Russians withdrawing their forces to an area to regroup and replenish means some ripe fruit for plucking by the Ukraine forces.

And I'm intrigued by the Ukraine looking to acquire anti-shipping missiles. I'm sure we'll see what they have up their sleeve soon enough, though.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And I'm intrigued by the Ukraine looking to acquire anti-shipping missiles. I'm sure we'll see what they have up their sleeve soon enough, though.




With NATO member Turkey blocking all warship entry into the Black Sea the local Russian navy is quite limited. Maybe Ukraine aims to sink a few of these land attack missile equipped DD/FGs?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With NATO member Turkey blocking all warship entry into the Black Sea the local Russian navy is quite limited. Maybe Ukraine aims to sink a few of these land attack missile equipped DD/FGs?





GrauGeist said:


> With the Russians withdrawing their forces to an area to regroup and replenish means some ripe fruit for plucking by the Ukraine forces.
> 
> And I'm intrigued by the Ukraine looking to acquire anti-shipping missiles. I'm sure we'll see what they have up their sleeve soon enough, though.



The Ukrainians clearly have to defend their southern flank against further Russian reinforcements. ASMs would make a hot mess of a troop ship or DD trying to add weight to the assault on Mariupol.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Ukrainians clearly have to defend their southern flank against further Russian reinforcements. ASMs would make a hot mess of a troop ship or DD trying to add weight to the assault on Mariupol.


They've already sank a few, including the ship that attacked Snake island - which was an epic tale of baiting the bear: Ukrainian Navy boats lured the Vasily Byvok into a chase, leading it into range of Ukrainian Army batteries who nailed it with rockets!


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## Glider (Apr 9, 2022)

It has to be said that the effective use of SSM missiles is a complication that the Russian Navy could do without. To try a landing against such defences is almost suicidal and even the ability to bombard land targets becomes more difficult.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> To try a landing against such defences is almost suicidal and even the ability to bombard land targets becomes more difficult.


_Festung Ukrainia!_
For the Russians D-day could well be Defeat-day.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> They've already sank a few, including the ship that attacked Snake island - which was an epic tale of baiting the bear: Ukrainian Navy boats lured the Vasily Byvok into a chase, leading it into range of Ukrainian Army batteries who nailed it with rockets!



Yeah, so I've read. But I'd imagine they'd like ASMs to improve their capabilities? My understanding was that the Ukrainians used ATGMs -- is that accurate? If so, ASMs would be more useful.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 9, 2022)

I wonder how efficiently the RF redeployment is going. They lost some of their transport going to Kyiv. We saw vids of RF forces using requisitioned civilian SUVs and trucks. The RF lost significant numbers of troops, according to mainstream news. The troops being sent in have to be coming from somewhere. Georgia, Chechnya? Wouldn't it be a hoot if Chechnya and Georgia decided it's a good time to explore other avenues of international relations? I also wonder if Donbas and Luhansk separatists are still as committed to the cause or possibly may being sent to filtration camps themselves.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 9, 2022)

Hey wlewisiii, as long as you're here. I ignore a lot of YT channels of experts explaining why this tank is great/sucks. Your thoughts on the Spookston(?) and Cone of Arc channels? I take the Chieftain at his word.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 9, 2022)

Spookston is fine with in the context of the game he plays. Think about how close or not flight sim games are to real flying? War Thunder, World Of Tanks, etc, are the same for vehicles. 

Don't know cone of arc, I'll look at it sometime. 

The Tank Chats from the Bovington Tank Museum's Channel are exquisite. *


https://www.youtube.com/user/TheTankMuseum


*
Oh, and Sofilein has a fun channel. She just simply enjoys tanks

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## at6 (Apr 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> One of the papers I read this morning said he has a history of targeting civilians. From what has been seen so far that seems to be the Russian preference. Maybe they are scared of people who can fight back


Find where the General's H Q is located and liquidate the dirty sob along with his staff.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> One of the papers I read this morning said he has a history of targeting civilians. From what has been seen so far that seems to be the Russian preference. Maybe they are scared of people who can fight back



Thinking about this some more:

Given the Russian difficulties with comm, to the point of having to use clear-channel stuff, I wonder how efficient his dissemination of orders will be, and more importantly, how secure it will be. My understanding (and I could well be wrong, welcome correction) is that Russian doctrine is less-flexible in devolving decisions to lower echelons; they prefer decisions to be made at higher levels and don't allow for as much adaptation and improv. They seem to be more top-down.

Is this in the ballpark of correct?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> _Festung Ukrainia!_
> For the Russians D-day could well be Defeat-day.



We can always hope. The Ukrainians have a tough slog ahead of them. So, too, do the Russians.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 10, 2022)

at6 said:


> Find where the General's H Q is located and liquidate the dirty sob along with his staff.


I'm sure the eye in the sky has already given the Ukrainians the license plates of his personal vehicle.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wonder how efficiently the RF redeployment is going. They lost some of their transport going to Kyiv. We saw vids of RF forces using requisitioned civilian SUVs and trucks. The RF lost significant numbers of troops, according to mainstream news. The troops being sent in have to be coming from somewhere. Georgia, Chechnya? Wouldn't it be a hoot if Chechnya and Georgia decided it's a good time to explore other avenues of international relations? I also wonder if Donbas and Luhansk separatists are still as committed to the cause or possibly may being sent to filtration camps themselves.


Georgia is no friend of Russia.

Not only did their naval fueler refuse to provide supplies to a Russian Navy ship, they have provided "volunteers" to the Ukraine's International Legion.

Matter of fact, now would be the perfect time for Georgia to launch a military operation to reclaime territory that Russia occupied in 2008 (they were "protecting" an ethnic Russian population, of course).
This would have a two-fold effect:
One, it would catch Russia off guard as their attention is elsewhere.
Secondly, it would divide Russia's resources at a critical time and pull Russia into a two front war.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Matter of fact, now would be the perfect time for Georgia to launch a military operation to reclaime territory that Russia occupied in 2008


"That's approved. Make it so."

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## GrauGeist (Apr 10, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "That's approved. Make it so."


Can you imagine the shitstorm at the Kremlin if the Georgians did?

To the free world, the Georgians would be absolute heros in the league of the Ukranians.

In the Kremlin, Vladolf Putler would be raging and hyperventilating

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In the Kremlin, Vladolf Putler would be raging and hyperventilating


...and buckling on his body armor! And walking around in a huddle of his Praetorian Guard.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2022)

Some of my friends who have studied Russian say that Russians tend to have an ingrained fear of being considered *nekulturny (uncultured)* thugs by foreigners, while at the same time taking a perverse pride in their capacity for ruthlessness. Thus they are all schizophrenic to a greater or lesser extent, it would seem. Does this make any sense to you folks out there more knowledgeable than I? Just a thought.

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## ThomasP (Apr 10, 2022)

Some of the declassified bits from a recent DoD intel briefing, released at a press briefing:

The Russian units that were attacking Kyiv have withdrawn and are refitting in Belarus and western Russia. The units are making their way to Russian towns of Belgorod and Valuyki, which are near the border with Ukraine and the northern part of the Donbas region.

Some of the units that attacked Kyiv were severely mauled, with many battalion tactical groups [BTG] experiencing a combined personnel and equipment reduction of 30% and others hurt even more.

"We've seen indications of some units that are literally ... eradicated — there's just nothing left of the BTG [Battalion Tactical Group] except a handful of troops and maybe a small number of vehicles."

It may take some time for these units to be reconstituted, and this could be further complicated by continuing failures in logistics.

". . . we're seeing antidotal evidence that some of these battalion tactical groups are doing what they can to try to replace manpower on their own. And they're exploring the option of combining BTGs with one another and they hope to get refit / reinforced by new conscripts . . ."

"We believe that they have not solved all of their logistics and sustainment problems and that those problems did not just exist inside Ukraine. They existed outside Ukraine and still do exist. And so, our sense is that they will likely not be able to reinforce the eastern part of the country with any great speed." 

After the failure of the Kyiv campaign, the Russians are moving units to the east and beginning to feed them into the fight for the Donbas. It is becoming the main scene of battle in the country after Russian President Vladimir Putin's failed attempt to take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

"I don't have an update for you on where the troops coming out of Georgia went. Again, I mentioned at the time we're not going to have perfect visibility on all their movements but we have said before that they're going to reinforce the east, and they have. They're up over 40 BTGs [from 30 pre-invasion of Ukraine] in that northeastern grouping of troops that are or will be soon applied to the east."

". . . one unit in particular that we know, the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, they're being transferred to the eastern borders of Ukraine. It's a new division that was formed only in 2021, consists of three mechanized infantry regiments as well as an armored regiment. And our assessment is that they're expected to be applied in eastern Ukraine in the Kramatorsk area, in the area near where that train station was. So, we're seeing the movement of units and the application of force, more force in that part."

"The Russians and the Ukrainians have been focused on the Donbas for eight years, and for eight years [] the Ukrainians have been able to stymie Russia's larger objectives in the Donbas. But the fighting has been bloody, it's been stiff. And it's been pretty consistent for years."

"This will be a knife fight . . . this could be very bloody and very ugly."

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## MIflyer (Apr 10, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Some of my friends who have studied Russian say that Russians tend to have an ingrained fear of being considered *nekulturny (uncultured)* thugs by foreigners,


That is what Robert Heinlein said after visiting the USSR in 1960. If you were not getting treated right then as a last resort stand on tippy toes and fiercely say "Nekulturny!" You'd either get satisfaction or be introduced to a jail cell.

A USAF Colonel who had dealt with the Soviets a lot in arms control negotiations told me he considered Christianity to be reflected in how nice and decent people dealt with one another, and the Soviets were not.

During the Cold War they showed themselves to be a very petty people, often taking actions that made as much sense as some teenagers knocking over mailboxes just for the hell of it - and saying it was justified because they did not like math class, or something. A Soviet agent who came from Eastern Europe and was sent to the US, only to eventually defect, said his evaluation of them was every simple: They desperately wanted to be the United States but weren't. 

By the way, as I expected, they are saying that the missile that hit the train station has a serial number that came from the lot of 500 SS-21 missiles that the UKR has. I don't guess we have any way of verifying that one way or another.

On Youtube they played a couple of Russian military units talking to each other, their situation was desperate and they were asking each other for help. Then someone tried to jam them, breaking in and whistling a familiar tune, "I wish I was in the land of Dixie..." Does the UKR have a lot of Dukes of Hazard fans?

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## c1951 (Apr 10, 2022)

The west disarmed, when before Nimrod was broken up the British sent Haig to Russia to get their assurance they would not expand the Submarine force. They said yes and the Nimrod fleet was broken up to the cheers of the submariners at Murmansk. Then they disarmed. You can get the British Army into a football stadium and have room to spare. The RAF has 18 operational fighters protecting British airspace and the Navy has less than 15 operational ships. Immigrants cross the cannel with impunity - YES its NATOs fault.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 10, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 10, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Apr 10, 2022)

MIflyer said:


> By the way, as I expected, they are saying that the missile that hit the train station has a serial number that came from the lot of 500 SS-21 missiles that the UKR has. I don't guess we have any way of verifying that one way or another.


If that missile was of Ukrainian origin, there's a good chance it was captured by Russian forces earlier in the campaign, when large areas were initially lost.

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## ThomasP (Apr 10, 2022)

Hey c1951,

What are you talking about?

The UK has ~100 operational Typhoon aircraft in 7 active squadrons. Do you mean that the UK has only 18 aircraft on standing guard (aka Quick Reaction Alert)?

Also, RAF is flying Poseidon MRA Mk 1 aircraft for maritime patrol and ASW - although they only have 9 airframes.

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## ThomasP (Apr 10, 2022)



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## MIflyer (Apr 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If that missile was of Ukrainian origin, there's a good chance it was captured by Russian forces earlier in the campaign, when large areas were initially lost.


Supposedly the Russians have phased out that missile and replaced it with another. But as we have already seen, they are using equipment as old as WW1. They may not maintain everything very well but they also don't tend to throw it away. At this point I would not be surprised to see some T-34's come trundling up - from either side. They are still finding them in lakes.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 10, 2022)

Early one. I think that's a T-34 1941 with the original small turret and 76.2mm gun. Interesting balkankruze on it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 10, 2022)

c1951 said:


> The west disarmed, when before Nimrod was broken up the British sent Haig to Russia to get their assurance they would not expand the Submarine force. They said yes and the Nimrod fleet was broken up to the cheers of the submariners at Murmansk. Then they disarmed. You can get the British Army into a football stadium and have room to spare. The RAF has 18 operational fighters protecting British airspace and the Navy has less than 15 operational ships. *Immigrants cross the cannel with impunity* - YES its NATOs fault.

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## MIflyer (Apr 10, 2022)

The Germans made extensive use of captured T-34's and KV-1's in WW2; they had whole units equipped with only those. The early T-34's had serious problems with the transmission and many were abandoned; they even strapped spare transmissions to the rear deck because so many were failing. Note that one has a German style hatch rather than that absurd open from the rear hatch the early T-34's had.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



That second one will be repaired and in Ukraine service soon. Isn‘t the T-80 produced in Ukraine?

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## Denniss (Apr 10, 2022)

Definitely a german-rebuilt T-34, see commanders cuppola on turret roof

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## space dodo (Apr 10, 2022)

*comrade humpty


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## MIflyer (Apr 10, 2022)

For the next phase of the war in Ukraine the Russians have put their top men on it. T O P M E N!

Head'em up! Move'em Out!

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 10, 2022)

Interesting read on the T-80BVM






T-80BVM Main Battle Tank | Military-Today.com


The T-80BVM is a refurbished and upgraded version of the T-80BV main battle tank. It was first publicly revealed in 2017. Russian Army plans to upgrade its T-80 series tanks in order to keep them in operational service.



www.military-today.com





They are kept in reserve due to their operational costs, their gas turbine engine can "consume up to 750 liters of fuel for 100 km driven".

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## J_P_C (Apr 10, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Interesting read on the T-80BVM
> 
> 
> 
> ...


mean fuel consumption in for M1 is 148l/10km - data revealed by Sweden after competitive trials with Leo2, i don't think T-80 is any better in this term. Mass using turbine powered tanks will kill their logistic faster than Ukrainians will be able to do this

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## c1951 (Apr 10, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey c1951,
> 
> What are you talking about?
> 
> ...


There are more Poseidon's than that, they do not have the pilots for seven squadrons


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## space dodo (Apr 10, 2022)

I think ukraines use of anti tank weapons has outweighed their use of tanks by far.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> mean fuel consumption in for M1 is 148l/10km - data revealed by Sweden after competitive trials with Leo2, i don't think T-80 is any better in this term. Mass using turbine powered tanks will kill their logistic faster than Ukrainians will be able to do this



I agree, and not the vehicle you want when you don't have an operational supply line. I just found it interesting that they had to pull them out of reserve in the first place.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 10, 2022)

MIflyer said:


> For the next phase of the war in Ukraine the Russians have put their top men on it. T O P M E N!
> 
> Head'em up! Move'em Out!



Explain to me again why the Russians are struggling with logistics?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 10, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I agree, and not the vehicle you want when you don't have an operational supply line. I just found it interesting that they had to pull them out of reserve in the first place.



Operational trials under combat conditions, perhaps?


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## fubar57 (Apr 10, 2022)

MIflyer said:


> For the next phase of the war in Ukraine the Russians have put their top men on it. T O P M E N!
> 
> Head'em up! Move'em Out!


Possibly drinking tank fuel

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## Denniss (Apr 10, 2022)

poorly trained and/or drunk driver. You can't drive up a loading ramp with full power without getting the vehicle to jump or losing traction.
Guys were lucky there was either no ammo aboard or safely stored.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 10, 2022)

MIflyer said:


> On Youtube they played a couple of Russian military units talking to each other, their situation was desperate and they were asking each other for help. Then someone tried to jam them, breaking in and whistling a familiar tune, "I wish I was in the land of Dixie..." Does the UKR have a lot of Dukes of Hazard fans?


Who knows, but if you wanted to add insult to injury, what better choice?
Ukraine = Successfull Secessionists

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## wlewisiii (Apr 10, 2022)

If this is, in fact, accurate, the Russian Army is going to have an extremely difficult time with its Donbas offensive.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 10, 2022)

I'm not certain if this has ever been discussed, but why did the Ukraine give up its nuclear arsenal?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> If this is, in fact, accurate, the Russian Army is going to have an extremely difficult time with its Donbas offensive.




Good luck with unit cohesion. Scratch forces have a bad habit of falling apart under pressure.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 10, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I'm not certain if this has ever been discussed, but why did the Ukraine give up its nuclear arsenal?



I know it's Wikipedia but it's a decent overview of what happened and why:









Ukraine and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Bottom line is that the nukes in Ukraine belonged to the USSR and hence the launch codes etc were managed from Moscow. It's tough to re-implement that from scratch when you're not a nuclear power, and neither NATO nor Russia wanted another nuclear force on either of their doorsteps, particularly given how uncertain things were in the early 1990s. The Budapest Memorandum captured the details of the agreement for Ukraine to remove its nuclear weapons within a defined period of time.

Of note, Russia has already broken the first 2 articles summarized on the Wiki page.

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## MIflyer (Apr 10, 2022)

Ukraine also gave up its strategic bomber force of Backfires. They did not want them and Russia would not take them, I guess they thought that merely having the bombers was provocative. So lacking ICBMs and bombers, what would they have delivered the nukes with? They invited the USAF in to destroy them. I always thought we should have taken a few Backfires and given them to Israel.

In that same time period Kazakhstan invited the USAF in to destroy the nuclear weapons test facilities there.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

I remember the denuclearization of former SSRs fairly well. Russia, in the post-Soviet collapse, was very insecure about having these nukes on its doorstep, and America was worried about them falling into the hands of terrorists and mined for dirty-bomb usage. So it was that both sides came together and persuaded the former SSRs which had nukes on them (iirc, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) to give up their stockpiles, which they did for the reason 

 buffnut453
points out -- that lacking the codes, they were useless anyway.

It seemed to be a bright spot to me at the time, that they could come together and solve this.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 10, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I'm not certain if this has ever been discussed, but why did the Ukraine give up its nuclear arsenal?


Having nukes wouldn’t have prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China having nuclear weapons didn‘t prevent Russia from attacking China (and vice versa) in 1969. Sino-Soviet border conflict - Wikipedia

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 10, 2022)

space dodo said:


> I think ukraines use of anti tank weapons has outweighed their use of tanks by far.


What do you mean? Is Ukraine having success with its own tanks that is overshadowed by YouTube MANPATS vids?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

The Ukrainians reputedly have a couple of thousand tanks, mostly old T-72s and a smattering of T-64s which are even older. I haven't read too much about their use or possible successes. Perhaps they're being husbanded?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

_Russian forces are transitioning their focus to the southern and eastern portions of Ukraine, prompting Ukrainian officials to warn that battles will be reminiscent of World War II.

Satellite images examined by Maxar Technologies and cited by CNN said a Russian military convoy is moving to southern Ukraine through the town of Velykyi Burluk, which is located in the east.

Russian forces are reportedly planning to move toward the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, the network reported, citing Friday comments from Ukraine's defense intelligence chief._









Zelensky expecting ‘many times more’ Russian weaponry in new wave of war


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a new interview said he is expecting “many times more” Russian weaponry to be used in the next wave of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Asked during an interv…




thehill.com





No doubt the Ukrainians are taking advantage of interior lines to present the toughest face to the enemy, and hopefully this new convoy is also experiencing logistical difficulties as well, as I've read US defense analysts asserting that those difficulties extend into the territory of Russia proper as well. I'm trying to find that source again and will post it when I do.

ETA: posted this earlier, and repost it with emphasis added:

_It may take some time for these units to be reconstituted, and this could be further complicated by continuing failures in logistics. *"We believe that they have not solved all of their logistics and sustainment problems and that those problems did not just exist inside Ukraine," he said. "They existed outside Ukraine and still do exist.* And so, our sense is that they will likely not be able to reinforce the eastern part of the country with any great speed."  









Defense Official Says Conflict in Ukraine


The fight for eastern Ukraine will be a "knife fight," as both sides are familiar with the terrain, population centers and access routes, a senior defense official said.



www.defense.gov




_
Satellite image of the new convoy, estimated to be eight miles long:







Source

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 10, 2022)

Too long to quote, and while an interesting read it seems pretty over-optimistic. Thoughts?









The Breakup: Will Russia Splinter Over War in Ukraine?


Russia is entering a period of political turmoil that is likely to include renewed demands for independence by its constituent republics in a replay of the break-up of the Soviet Union.




nationalinterest.org

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## GrauGeist (Apr 10, 2022)

Lo and behold...

I just mentioned here the other day, how the time would be right for Georgia to expel Russian forces from their country and today, I see this...









In Georgia, Calls Emerge To Retake South Ossetia, Abkhazia


As Russia finds itself increasingly bogged down in Ukraine, social media appeals have emerged in Georgia, a country all too familiar with Russian military aggression, urging people there to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, lands lost in the 2008 war with Russia.




www.rferl.org

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## SaparotRob (Apr 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Too long to quote, and while an interesting read it seems pretty over-optimistic. Thoughts?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Rarely.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Apr 11, 2022)

How ironic, Stalin 2.0 wanted to expand Russia but he might actually shrink it.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> How ironic, Stalin 2.0 wanted to expand Russia but he might actually shrink it.


Poetic justice ?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> How ironic, Stalin 2.0 wanted to expand Russia but he might actually shrink it.



Funny how ironic and moronic rhyme so neatly.

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## swampyankee (Apr 11, 2022)

I think putin's inspiration goes back farther than Stalin: Katherine the Great (When Catherine the Great Invaded the Crimea and Put the Rest of the World on Edge). We can expect Potemkin villages in the next few days....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 11, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> We can expect Potemkin villages in the next few days....


 
Why not? We've already seen the Potemkin Army.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

The Basket said:


> The Kremlin has said that there will be consequences if Finland and Sweden join NATO.


Well, that worked out as planned for Putin.... what a dummy.









Finland and Sweden set to join Nato as soon as summer


Russia has made a “massive strategic blunder” as Finland and Sweden look poised to join Nato as early as the summer




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I fear that the only solution is that the Russian people stand up for themselves. And I don’t see that happen very soon.


That will never happen. As explained here....


Admiral Beez said:


> Good explanation on the Russian mindset.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Holy St Javelin, Batman! The US Senate just voted to revive Lend Lease!
> 
> In the fight against Putin, Senate unanimously approves measure that once helped beat Hitler


Has anything changed? I was expecting to see C-5s and fast transport ships loading up with heavy weapons by now. Hopefully this is all happening beyond the public's eye.









Biden's national security advisor says the US is 'working around the clock to deliver our own weapons' to Ukraine


"We are not resting until we have given them everything that they need to be able to succeed in their aims," Jake Sullivan said.




www.businessinsider.com

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has anything changed? I was expecting to see C-5s and fast transport ships loading up with heavy weapons by now. Hopefully this is all happening beyond the public's eye.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ohh yes things changed.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Ohh yes things changed.


I hope so. If they hope to first hold the line and then evict the Russians from all Ukraine territory (including the Donbas, but likely never Crimea), the Ukrainians need more than MANPATS, MANPADS, drones (and their guided missiles), small/medium arms and communications gear. They need counter battery systems and heavy artillery of their own, plus tanks, etc. You don't win wars playing defence.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 11, 2022)

No not optimistic. Real. It is the first step into weaponising legit. Funding is one, making it legal i think for the USA to supply arms is something else. Yes no advanced airplanes but pesky little anti tank, ship or what have you.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 11, 2022)

Let’s send some stuff to Georgia. 🙂

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 11, 2022)

The funds from europe and others will be well spend. It is also a warning for other states. We can pull together and spend you to oblivion. Hate to say it but Reagan was right. Now ... having said that i am going to eat some humble pie because i did not see his side clearly back then.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2022)

I wonder if the US will begin REFORGER exercises for the first time since the early 90s?

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## space dodo (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What do you mean? Is Ukraine having success with its own tanks that is overshadowed by YouTube MANPATS vids?


as in the use of portable anti tank weapons such as javelins and rpgs


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> It is also a warning for other states. We can pull together and spend you to oblivion.


I imagine China's thinking as they look wistfully at Taiwan, well f#ck Russia, did you have to kick the global beehive and bring the West out of its military and activist complacency?


SaparotRob said:


> Let's send some stuff to Georgia. 🙂


I too have Georgia on my mind. 









The Kremlin’s Next Targets? Georgia and Moldova


Whatever the outcome of Russia's unwarranted war against Ukraine, its implications for Georgia and Moldova are serious and immediate.




cepa.org

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> God bless Canada!  that was awesome!


We've got a long way to go.

Germany: €100B over 4 years for defence in response to the Ukraine crisis with another €100B for climate measures to cut Russian O&G dependence.

Canada: "It's a huge crisis. Worst since WWII. Here's $8B over 5 years."









Canada to increase defence spending by $8B, but that’s less than what NATO wants


The proposed increase in the federal budget would get Canada’s defence spending up to 1.5 per cent of GDP, said a senior government official, below the NATO target of two per cent.




www.thestar.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has anything changed? I was expecting to see C-5s and fast transport ships loading up with heavy weapons by now. Hopefully this is all happening beyond the public's eye.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


US House of Representatives went on Easter recess without voting on it. Too many Putinistas in the house to get the vote done then, not enough to prevent it but enough to delay it.

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## GTX (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Having nukes wouldn’t have prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China having nuclear weapons didn‘t prevent Russia from attacking China (and vice versa) in 1969. Sino-Soviet border conflict - Wikipedia


Different times different capabilities. In 1969 china would have had ~50 nuclear weapons and all would have had to have been delivered by bomber - probably IL-28s or TU-16s.

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## GTX (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Too many Putinistas in the house to get the vote done then, not enough to prevent it but enough to delay it.


Supported by Putin's new propagandists on OANN and Fox 'News'...

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

Gentlemen,
Real reason for special military operation have been finally disclosed. Kremlin spokespersons Mrs Zakharova has stated that Ukraine made claim for all borsch on the world which needs to be counter with military power.



Another prove that russia is not a place on the earth just description of special state of the mind....

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## GTX (Apr 11, 2022)

Although a comedy show, John Oliver highlights very well the way Russian Media is trying to cover things up/spin things along with their OANN comrades - it would be funny if it wasn't so serious:

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

to be honest - at least part of the borsch world reserves belongs to me

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> to be honest - at least part of the borsch world reserves belongs to me


To be honest - you can have it  

(now pickle those beets instead & I'm all noms)

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

OTOH, here's some excellent news from Ukraine:

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## GTX (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> to be honest - at least part of the borsch world reserves belongs to me


Mmmm...thicken it up a bit more and add a dollop of sour cream


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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> To be honest - you can have it
> 
> (now pickle those beets instead & I'm all noms)


this is Ukrainian style soup - you are boiling chopped beets and consuming all this together - delicious stuff

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> OTOH, here's some excellent news from Ukraine:



Ukrainian artillery crews are the masters in their profession - it is hard to believe in such high level of precision....

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> this is Ukrainian style soup - you are boiling chopped beets and consuming all this together - delicious stuff


Ah! I'll have to try it sometime.


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## GTX (Apr 11, 2022)

Rheinmetall might deliver 50 'stored' Leopard-1A5 tanks to Ukraine


Ukraine may receive dozens of tanks from the German concern Rheinmetall in the coming weeks, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing a statement by Rheinmetall CEO




bulgarianmilitary.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Gentlemen,
> Real reason for special military operation have been finally disclosed. Kremlin spokespersons Mrs Zakharova has stated that Ukraine made claim for all borsch on the world which needs to be counter with military power.
> 
> 
> ...



I watched that. Some caption said she was bombed. She looked drunk to me.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

The latest smackdown. To be a Russian tanker has to be demoralizing.



Some more fodder coming in.

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## fubar57 (Apr 11, 2022)

Can someone explain why Russian tanks, almost from start of Russian tank building, produce almost as much exhaust as their aircraft carrier? Camouflaged on the tanks would be a waste of time



wlewisiii said:


> OTOH, here's some excellent news from Ukraine:

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The latest smackdown. To be a Russian tanker has to be demoralizing.



first salvo hitting moving target - almost impossible for me.... Even considering that most of the Ukrainian artillery is fully computerized with Topaz system...

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 11, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Poetic justice ?


Pushkin would be proud.

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## MIflyer (Apr 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Let’s send some stuff to Georgia


Is Georgia sending stuff to Ukraine? After all, they build the Frogfoot there.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> first salvo hitting moving target - almost impossible for me.... Even considering that most of the Ukrainian artillery is fully computerized with Topaz system...


I assumed that was a laser guided weapon, lit up by the drone or from elsewhere.

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## Glider (Apr 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Rheinmetall might deliver 50 'stored' Leopard-1A5 tanks to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukraine may receive dozens of tanks from the German concern Rheinmetall in the coming weeks, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing a statement by Rheinmetall CEO
> ...


I don't want to be the person who pours cold water onto this but I read this afternoon that the German government have refused permission for Marder APC's currently stored with the manufacturer to be refurbished (at the company's expense) and sent to the Ukraine.

If they will not allow the transfer of an APC I cannot see them allowing the transfer of Leopard tanks.

One of the reasons being given was that they wanted to ensure that the Ukraine were given equipment they really wanted. Personally I would lay good money on the Ukraine Army being more than happy with Leopards.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> first salvo hitting moving target - almost impossible for me....


Probably laser guided munitions with a drone illuminating the target. Notice the roadside tree rows? The kill projectile would need a very steep terminal trajectory to avoid pre-triggering.

EDIT (24 min later) Just realized Admiral B made the same comment upthread, and I missed it. My apologies.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> Personally I would lay good money on the Ukraine Army being more than happy with Leopards.


If there was ever a time Canada should deploy its Leopards to eastern Europe it's now. Since we're not, I have to wonder if savings can be made by eliminating the unit and selling/gifting the CAF's approximately one hundred Leopards to Ukraine. 

Canada needs to sort out its defence priorities. No one is invading Canada, so the army can be reduced. The navy needs to be ready to support REFORGER ops, monitor the Northwest Passage/Artic waters and push to join AUKUS (CANZUKUS?). The RCAF clearly needs its F-35s asap, plus replacements for the Aurora MPA, and should be looking into long range patrol drones. 

Back to the tanks, let's gift them to Ukraine.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> I don't want to be the person who pours cold water onto this but I read this afternoon that the German government have refused permission for Marder APC's currently stored with the manufacturer to be refurbished (at the company's expense) and sent to the Ukraine.
> 
> If they will not allow the transfer of an APC I cannot see them allowing the transfer of Leopard tanks.
> 
> One of the reasons being given was that they wanted to ensure that the Ukraine were given equipment they really wanted. Personally I would lay good money on the Ukraine Army being more than happy with Leopards.


Leo 1's would require complete retraining for use by the Ukrainian military. They have a four-man crew with a loader. You may not think it but that is a real set of skills that no tanker in Ukraine would have due to the autoloaders on every Russian tank since the T-64. The operator maintenance, while similar because all tanks have the same needs, will be completely different in detail and they would need to learn the new procedures and manuals. That would be even more miserable at the unit level of maintenance. Then there is the difference in the fire control systems, and I am unfamiliar if the German tanks ever received the laser rangefinder upgrades that the Belgian and Canadian Leo's did. Lastly, they are armed with the L7 105mm rifle. While there is still huge stocks of that ammo available with it's use on things like the godforsaken Stryker Mobile Gun System, none of it is in Ukrainian stocks and would have to be supplied along with the vehicles. 

In short, the Leopard One would be a very poor fit for Ukraine. If there are any T-72's remaining from DDR days, they would be a much better transfer for Ukraine.

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Probably laser guided munitions with a drone illuminating the target. Notice the roadside tree rows? The kill projectile would need a very steep terminal trajectory to avoid pre-triggering.


probably you are correct:








Ukroboronprom


Strategic partner for manufacturing weaponry and military hardware




ukroboronprom.com.ua

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## Glider (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Leo 1's would require complete retraining for use by the Ukrainian military. They have a four-man crew with a loader. You may not think it but that is a real set of skills that no tanker in Ukraine would have due to the autoloaders on every Russian tank since the T-64. The operator maintenance, while similar because all tanks have the same needs, will be completely different in detail and they would need to learn the new procedures and manuals. That would be even more miserable at the unit level of maintenance. Then there is the difference in the fire control systems, and I am unfamiliar if the German tanks ever received the laser rangefinder upgrades that the Belgian and Canadian Leo's did. Lastly, they are armed with the L7 105mm rifle. While there is still huge stocks of that ammo available with it's use on things like the godforsaken Stryker Mobile Gun System, none of it is in Ukrainian stocks and would have to be supplied along with the vehicles.
> 
> In short, the Leopard One would be a very poor fit for Ukraine. If there are any T-72's remaining from DDR days, they would be a much better transfer for Ukraine.


I actually do agree with almost everything you say. Personally the training of the tank crews whilst difficult is probably easier to do than the training of the engineers who will maintain them as special tools would be needed, spares from vision blocks, to tracks, to the complex engines and all the new electronics learnt and understood. 

However the West only have a finite number of ex Russian T72ish tanks available. If there are to be supplemented then the Leopard is a good tank as they were used by many countries and there will be considerable stocks around. There will be differences between the German, Canadian, Dutch, Italian, Belgian and no doubt others, but the core tank will also have similarities
Challenger 1 tanks for example would be useless as there were so few of them made in the first place.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> I actually do agree with almost everything you say. Personally the training of the tank crews whilst difficult is probably easier to do than the training of the engineers who will maintain them as special tools would be needed, spares from vision blocks, to tracks, to the complex engines and all the new electronics learnt and understood.
> 
> However the West only have a finite number of ex Russian T72ish tanks available. If there are to be supplemented then the Leopard is a good tank as they were used by many countries and there will be considerable stocks around. There will be differences between the German, Canadian, Dutch, Italian, Belgian and no doubt others, but the core tank will also have similarities
> Challenger 1 tanks for example would be useless as there were so few of them made in the first place.


After the war, yes. Getting them integrated into NATO standard weapons and vehicles should be a high priority. The Leopard Ones would be an excellent purchase or "Loan" via some form of lend lease. 

During the conflict however, they don't have the time or manpower to spare on the retraining and resupply issues if they can avoid it.


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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> I actually do agree with almost everything you say. Personally the training of the tank crews whilst difficult is probably easier to do than the training of the engineers who will maintain them as special tools would be needed, spares from vision blocks, to tracks, to the complex engines and all the new electronics learnt and understood.
> 
> However the West only have a finite number of ex Russian T72ish tanks available. If there are to be supplemented then the Leopard is a good tank as they were used by many countries and there will be considerable stocks around. There will be differences between the German, Canadian, Dutch, Italian, Belgian and no doubt others, but the core tank will also have similarities
> Challenger 1 tanks for example would be useless as there were so few of them made in the first place.


Only Poland have at least 700 T72 available....400 active duty and 300 in reactivation process started a year ago.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

Oh, boy...

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## tomo pauk (Apr 11, 2022)

Send all and any T-72s that can be found to Ukraine.
Send the M1s and Leo2s to the countries sending the T-72s.

Not my idea, similar job was undertaken with S-300 from Slovakia to Ukraine, with Slovakia getting the Patriot.

Leo1 is a bad joke.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 11, 2022)

That Russian tank column was attacked by the Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade.
What they were using to hit the Russian armor with, I'm not sure, but the 54th has tanks and self-propelled artillery as well as motorized infantry.

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

after Mig29 case Poland is not revealing information about weapon transfer to Ukraine any more - but you have heard about any specific request from Ukraine to Poland in this matter?? - by my observations most of contents of our arsenals are already in Ukraine or on in it's way to be there...

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## fubar57 (Apr 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh, boy...



Ahhhh....a return to the good ole days

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> after Mig29 case Poland is not revealing information about weapon transfer to Ukraine any more...


Indeed, that was pretty dumb of Poland on the MiGs. Someone in media relations in the Polish government or military thought it would be great virtue signaling to tell the world they're helping with the MiGs and the whole thing blew up. When the smart move was to keep it on the down low, paint them all in Ukrainian colours, bus their pilots to Poland and have them fly them home.

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## gumbyk (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed, that was pretty dumb of Poland on the MiGs. Someone in media relations in the Polish government or military thought it would be great virtue signaling to tell the world they're helping with the MiGs and the whole thing blew up. When the smart move was to keep it on the down low, paint them all in Ukrainian colours, bus their pilots to Poland and have them fly them home.


The problem with that is that Poland need to back-fill with US aircraft. It was the US who scuppered the deal by not providing replacement aircraft. There were multiple ways to get the aircraft to Ukraine without involving anyone else, but htat would have left Poland without cover.
Don't forget that every country that was sending equipment to Ukraine was doing it transparently and publicly, likely to signal to putin and the Russian public just how much everyone was against him. I think the initial hope was that this would make him back down. Now that he's obviously doubled-down, it can all happen quietly.

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## J_P_C (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed, that was pretty dumb of Poland on the MiGs. Someone in media relations in the Polish government or military thought it would be great virtue signaling to tell the world they're helping with the MiGs and the whole thing blew up. When the smart move was to keep it on the down low, paint them all in Ukrainian colours, bus their pilots to Poland and have them fly them home.


actually im agree with gumbyk in this matter - parts of the deal who screwed this most were USDoD and USDoS, Polish politicians just added some dumb statements which were "cherry on the top of the cake"

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## nuuumannn (Apr 11, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Spanky on my first Fulcrum BFM.



Magic! I was about to cheekily ask for photos!

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## MiTasol (Apr 11, 2022)

Ukraine might currently be called _*The mouse that roared back*_ so I intend to watch the film _The mouse that roared _for some light relief. Peter Sellers always makes me laugh and the plot has some common points with what is happening.

EDIT Watch The Mouse That Roared Online | Watch Full The Mouse That Roared (1959) Online For Free

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> first salvo hitting moving target - almost impossible for me.... Even considering that most of the Ukrainian artillery is fully computerized with Topaz system...



One shot, one kill is the ideal. I imagine these gunners have had a lot of practice over the last eight years.

My son tells me the Russians are using the Chechens as back-up units to keep the Russians from breaking and running, but I'm not sure how accurate his info is.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 11, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Ukraine might currently be called _*The mouse that roared back*_ so I intend to watch the film _The mouse that roared _for some light relief. Peter Sellers always makes me laugh and the plot has some common points with what is happening.


A point that's probably not lost on Volodymir. Life imitating art.
Loved the bullhorn with an arrow through it!

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## MiTasol (Apr 11, 2022)

and the car tyres/tires with arrows that remain inflated.

The US refusal early on to give Poland new aircraft in exchange for MiGs to Ukraine has bugged me from day one.

Now I suspect that the US may have been worried that Russia would steamroll Ukraine, as was predicted, and, if the MiG deal went through, go straight on into Poland while Poland had no fighter aircraft for defense. Conversion training from the MiG to an American type would take months at best but the trainees could still return home and fly MiG's if the Russians attacked.

Hopefully there are now lots of Poles in the US quietly getting training and some of the MiG's have been "hijacked" to Ukraine. Maybe it is time for some Polish, and other, tank crews to "steal" some tanks and join the Ukrainian army in the east.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 11, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> and the car tyres/tires with arrows that remain inflated.
> 
> The US refusal early on to give Poland new aircraft in exchange for MiGs to Ukraine has bugged me from day one.
> 
> ...


My guess is that the MiGs to Ukraine is a three part problem.

First, the Polish MiGs could easily end up war casualties in short order. Basically wasted.

Second, who pays for the Polish MiGs? They may have a few upgrades, but are a VERY INEXPENSIVE aircraft. Trade one for one for F-16s, again who pays for them.

Lastly, if they did get handed over to the UAF, the country which allowed them to launch (to land in Ukraine) could easily be considered an Ally and end up being drawn into the conflict.

Personally, I would like to see them get more arms, but not sure if diplomatically or via military maneuver handing them over is the right answer.

The after action report should include questions such as: How could this conflict have been avoided? 

And having a US president say it's okay to "invade a little" is not a good answer.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Bottom line is that the nukes in Ukraine belonged to the USSR and hence the launch codes etc were managed from Moscow.


So, they couldn't rework the permissive action links to make the weapon work? Given that some of the missile crews that worked there included ukrainians, as well as some of the missile maintenance guys, that seems like that wouldn't be all that hard to deal with.


> neither NATO nor Russia wanted another nuclear force on either of their doorsteps, particularly given how uncertain things were in the early 1990s.


So there was a concern by NATO that Ukraine would either align with Russia or go its own way and present a wild-card?

While some of the nuclear weapons in the inventory were past their expiration date, it seems foolish to have disposed of them completely regardless: Sadly some people only respond to threats of violence, or actual displays of it.


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## gumbyk (Apr 11, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Second, who pays for the Polish MiGs? They may have a few upgrades, but are a VERY INEXPENSIVE aircraft. Trade one for one for F-16s, again who pays for them.


My understanding is that Poland were to donate them to Ukraine, as they have basically reached the end of their lives and would have only been scrapped anyway.


BiffF15 said:


> Lastly, if they did get handed over to the UAF, the country which allowed them to launch (to land in Ukraine) could easily be considered an Ally and end up being drawn into the conflict.


It's no different than Tanks crossing the border. The only issue could have arisen if they found a target of opportunity during the transit from Poland to Ukraine. That's technically a mission launched from within a NATO country.


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## Jabberwocky (Apr 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Ukrainians reputedly have a couple of thousand tanks, mostly old T-72s and a smattering of T-64s which are even older. I haven't read too much about their use or possible successes. Perhaps they're being husbanded?



They're being deployed, often only singly or in pairs, teamed with small combat forces including a few IFV/APCs and dismounted infantry. 

Ukranian tank losses to date (from Western and third party sources) are somewhere between 100 and 150 vehicles. Russian claims are for more than 400 tanks and about 1500 other armoured vehicles. Assume losses are somewhere about halfway between those two figures.

Most Ukranian tanks seem to have been lost in the first two to three weeks of the conflict. Primary type lost has been T-64B and variants, as well as a few T-72s and some T-84s. That makes sense - pre-war T-64BV/BM made up about 75% of the country's active tank force of about 950-1100 tanks. 

Typical defensive employments with tanks seems to be either short range ambush engagements from cover/concealment, or deployment as mobile pillboxes in support of urban fighting. In the former situation, the tank or tanks seem to usually be used to initiate fire on a Russian column, drawing their attention or pulling them towards a kill box. Then the lighter units and infantry support follow up with ATGMs/shoulder launched rockets. Then the tanks pop/generate smoke and support disengagement.

Offensive use seems to be relatively limited - so far I've really only seen video of Ukrainian tanks being used in over-watch for infantry as they clear villages in counter attacks, or to reduce defensive/sniper positions.

The main problem with wider tank deployment for Ukraine seems to be Russia air superiority - particularly in the form of attack helicopters.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 11, 2022)

The first mention of MiGs for Ukraine was issued by a person in the EU (don't recall who) and they didn't specify from which country.
They caught heat for making the statement and retracted it.
Then shortly after, a news story mentioned that MiGs were available from several countries (Bulgaria was one mentioned - and they have very few and very much need them).
Eventually the stories ended up being about Poland's MiGs.

*if* Poland were to donate their MiGs, all that would need to be done, is push them across the border and use the Highway to take off, as many European nations practice doing (including Ukraine).

Passing tanks across the border is easy, too. Just park them along the Highway and let the 3rd Farm Tractor Brigade work their magic.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 11, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> They're being deployed, often only singly or in pairs, teamed with small combat forces including a few IFV/APCs and dismounted infantry.
> 
> Ukranian tank losses to date (from Western and third party sources) are somewhere between 100 and 150 vehicles. Russian claims are for more than 400 tanks and about 1500 other armoured vehicles. Assume losses are somewhere about halfway between those two figures.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the info, that clears some of the clouds up for me. Much appreciated.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 11, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> and the car tyres/tires with arrows that remain inflated.
> 
> The US refusal early on to give Poland new aircraft in exchange for MiGs to Ukraine has bugged me from day one.
> 
> ...



I'd like to see some Ukrainian pilots pulled back to Germany and trained on surplus A-10s. I know the learning curve is long, but I also know that this war might last months.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine China's thinking as they look wistfully at Taiwan, well f#ck Russia, did you have to kick the global beehive and bring the West out of its military and activist complacency?



Western military budgets have been generally trending upwards for the better part of the last decade - even as they've reduced the actual amount of actual fighting being done.

US defense spending turned positive in 2018, and reached 3.7% of GDP in 2021 (I think the 2022 budget request is for another increase as well). Non-US NATO state spending has been growing since 2014, increasing from $250 billion to $311 billion in 2021 (an increase of just under 25%). It's generally not as great a proportion of GDP as the US, but few Western states are.

NATO for 2021 was expected to spend ~$1028 billion (in 2015 dollars) on defense. That's up from $896 in 2015.

Outside of NATO other Western states have generally had growing defense spending. Australian defense spending bottomed out in 2013 and has grown by just over 25% since then. Japan has been flat but has increased over the last three years - and there's been a huge debate about whether Japan should be taking a more active role globally. South Korea defense spending has also been growing for the last three or four years.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 11, 2022)

Denniss said:


> flying a german MiG-29 ?
> Or was it so new in US service they forgot to remove german tactical numbers?
> According to a site this a/c should be #4109 in Poland now


Dennis,

Sorry just now realized I jumped over your post. I first fought the MiGs while deployed to Iceland. We took three jets cross country from Iceland to Denmark, spent the night, then fought them the next day landing at Laaga AB, GE. We fought them again on the way out and I think we landed at Lakenheath. Timeframe should have been summer of 2000 / 2001. 

Cheers,
Biff

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Passing tanks across the border is easy, too. Just park them along the Highway and let the 3rd Farm Tractor Brigade work their magic.



I think it's actually easier than that, because there's no way they could be said to be on a combat mission at the time they crossed the Polish-Ukrainian frontier, given range limitations. Airplanes taking off from NATO bases wouldn't have the same fig-leaf.

Of course any supply of arms or ammo from neutral parties to a belligerent is by international understanding an act of war and susceptible to interdiction -- hence the undeclared war between Germany and America in autumn 1941 in the Atlantic.

I'm fine with NATO going that far concerning ground weapons, fuel, and munitions supplies. I'm iffy on the airplanes but I'd see if they couldn't be loaded onto trucks with the keys left in the ignition etc. The Ukrainians are fighting dogs and doing the hardest work -- we in the West owe them anything we can do that won't provoke an exchange of nukes, imo.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

As someone with leftist leanings who still willingly served in the defense of the west, this pleases me.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 11, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> I’m on the road, but will check when I get home!


More shots of our adventure of fighting the MiGs down at Key West, FL

First shot is from my room at the Fly Navy building of a waterspout.
Second shot is a selfie at FL460 over the Keys.
Third shot is of a MiG on my wing.
Various shots airborne and on the ramp.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 11, 2022)

Biff, that first pic - is that a RAF Tornado? 

Ok, seriously though, sweet pix, thanks for sharing!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 11, 2022)

Biff, I gave you bacon - wish I could multiply it by 10! Great shots!!!! Thanks for posting!!!

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## BiffF15 (Apr 11, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> More shots of our adventure of fighting the MiGs down at Key West, FL
> 
> First shot is from my room at the Fly Navy building of a waterspout.
> Second shot is a selfie at FL460 over the Keys.
> ...


First shot is the instrument panel enroute to NAS Key West. Radar scope in upper left (turned off), Radar Warning Receiver (RWR) top right, Multi Purpose Color Display (MPCD) below the radar. 
Second, another airborne shot.
Third, sunset while drinking with all the Bro's coming back from snorkeling.
Fourth, RTB after a great ACM ride.
Fifth, NAS Key West from directly above.
More random shots.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 11, 2022)

Biff, thank you so much for sharing these.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 11, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Biff, I gave you bacon - wish I could multiply it by 10! Great shots!!!! Thanks for posting!!!


No sweat. It was one of the best TDYs I ever had.

The Weapons Officer was sitting at his desk one day going over our home airfield airspace and came to the conclusion we couldn't fight the MiGs there. I was standing there when he looked at me, and my only comment was we should meet them in Key West since the airspace is literally ten miles away. Next thing you know, we are going to Key West.'

MiGs and Top Gun Hornets.

Fighting by day, going to Sloppy Joes every night.

Hint, when you fly into the pattern at NAS Key West, look for cruise ships. The more ships, the better the night will be down on the strip.

And you can crawl from the strip back to the billeting (the Fly Navy building).

It was an obscene amount of fun.

And I got paid to do it. UFB. I would have done it for free.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 11, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Fighting by day, going to Sloppy Joes every night.


Heaven...

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## wlewisiii (Apr 11, 2022)

This is an exquisite article by a former commander of US Army Europe. Enjoy! 

I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.



> *I*t was an event I witnessed secondhand—a visit by our U.S. Army Europe band to Moscow. I had been back in the United States when, according to the band's director, "America's Musical Ambassadors in Europe" had "rocked Red Square in six performances." Russia had invited military bands from a half-dozen countries to perform modern music from their respective countries, and soldiers' from our European Army band had knocked-em-dead with a Michael Jackson medley outside the Kremlin.
> 
> A very young sergeant, a trumpet player, confirmed to me that the Red Square concert had been a smashing success. When I pressed her for more details, she offered that the Russian musicians "were good, but they really weren't very impressive. They weren't really soldiers; they were musicians dressed like soldiers. And their leadership. . . well, we wouldn't allow leaders like them in our Army. I wasn't impressed." I asked which countries had impressed her. "Germany was really good, and France performed some great music. But the Ukrainians—those soldiers really got it going on!"
> 
> What can you learn about a military from its band? Usually, not much. But putting on great performance requires some of the same skills as conducting a military operation. It requires recruiting the right people with the right talents (and many militaries, including the American military, use bands as a recruiting tool). It requires equipping those people with the right technology—often highly specialized—so they can do their job. It requires training those people to work together to perform complicated tasks with impeccable timing. It requires developing young leaders, managing logistics, and maintaining high morale. The sergeant I spoke to observed that what came through in the Ukrainians' performance is that they wanted to be there, they wanted to be great, and their leaders were inspirational.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Heaven...


I don't know the literal "sloppy joes" but I've been enough places in Uncle's army to know the places like it (hell the one outside the gates at my first post that we called the "Stab & Jab"  ) so I can sit here and raise a shot glass in honor of that place. Thank you for the service, the photos & most importantly, the stories...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This is an exquisite article by a former commander of US Army Europe. Enjoy!
> 
> I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.



Writing this post as a musician and a vet, this is an interesting comparison.

It's true that the orchestration of a band and the orchestration of an operation are both complicated. I think the two main differences are in the facts that 1) a band is almost always smaller than an operational unit, meaning that the feat of coordination (while scary in both cases) is going to be easier in the smaller scale; and 2) you rarely get shot after a bad gig. 

In seriousness, yes, there's a parallel, and more to her point, teamsmanship matters. A band is only as good as its weakest player, and a force is only as good as its weak link too. Let either of those links fall apart (sloppy drummer, crummy sergeant) and the whole thing goes to hell. The big difference is that dying onstage is a metaphor only.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 12, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> More shots of our adventure of fighting the MiGs down at Key West, FL
> 
> First shot is from my room at the Fly Navy building of a waterspout.
> Second shot is a selfie at FL460 over the Keys.
> ...


Ah, sun, salt, and coral! And don't forget the mangroves! A stroll down memory lane. Spent many an hour down there on the fighter ramp driving those yellow tankers on my off duty part time job. Looks like they haven't changed a bit since the 1970s.
Biff, do they still do Hot Pad?
My barracks was about 200 yards from the approach end of Rwy13. A good night's sleep? Good luck! The morning breeze was usually out of the southeast, and the morning Logair bird usually arrived about two hours before reveille. Tired old Electras that always sounded like they were going to start shedding pieces any minute. Tired old prop synchronizers that would emit a symphony of beat frequencies every time the throttle jockey made a power adjustment. And Lockheed brakes ALWAYS squeal!
Those were the days, my friend, we thought they'd never end! We thought we'd play forever and a day.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ....Of course any supply of arms or ammo from neutral parties to a belligerent is by international understanding an act of war and susceptible to interdiction....


Maybe from an individuals personal interpretation, but not according to some international law.

E.g. when the USA supported Iraq in their war against Iran - no one claimed that he US had therefore declared war on Iran, neither had any Arab or Middle-east country claimed that the US waged or declared war on them by supplying Israel - even during their own Mid-east wars. Though France and Soviet Russia had supplied huge weapon deliveries to Iraq(during the Iran/Iraq war) Iran never claimed that they would see this as a declaraion of war by France or Russia. When the USA and others supported the Mujahedin in Afghanistan even Soviet-Russia never claimed that to be a declaration of war.
There is to my knowledge no international law that would forbid e.g. NATO members to supply weapons to the Ukraine (there are national laws e.g. Germany that forbid weapon sales or deliveries into war prone or war zone areas). However even those laws have not stopped Germany from supplying the Ukraine with weapons some weeks ago.

So I don't think that is the issue - it is IMO that NATO obviously is not in the full picture of the Czar's conventional forces and their actual strength. As such delivering "excessive amounts" of weapons "might" give Putin the propaganda tools towards his own people/country to launch an actual full attack onto the Ukraine - which "might" even include tactical nukes, but
not necessarily, however absolutely depending on the actual capability of Russia's conventional forces.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## BiffF15 (Apr 12, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Ah, sun, salt, and coral! And don't forget the mangroves! A stroll down memory lane. Spent many an hour down there on the fighter ramp driving those yellow tankers on my off duty part time job. Looks like they haven't changed a bit since the 1970s.
> Biff, do they still do Hot Pad?
> My barracks was about 200 yards from the approach end of Rwy13. A good night's sleep? Good luck! The morning breeze was usually out of the southeast, and the morning Logair bird usually arrived about two hours before reveille. Tired old Electras that always sounded like they were going to start shedding pieces any minute. Tired old prop synchronizers that would emit a symphony of beat frequencies every time the throttle jockey made a power adjustment. And Lockheed brakes ALWAYS squeal!
> Those were the days, my friend, we thought they'd never end! We thought we'd play forever and a day.


Wes,

It's funny what one remembers. The smells, the sounds, the weather. I remember the weight / feel of our harness & gear. Getting a laugh out of the crew chief while I looked at the forms and or did the walk around. Touching the nose of the beast I was about to ride. To me she was a living steed which gave me the gift of flight. The sounds of the Jet Fuel Starters (APU) winding up. Or the first time I was the last guy on the ramp to shut down and I finally heard the clanking of the fan blades as they moved. The sweat. The look on the crew chiefs face when you told him the jet was code 1 (no repairs needed). 

Those were some good days.

I'm not familiar with "hot pad". If you mean running refuels, we called those the hot pits, and no we didn't do that at NAS Key West. I'm not sure if they did that there or not, we just didn't partake during any of the times I passed through.

Cheers,
Biff

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## SaparotRob (Apr 12, 2022)

I think the big difference is that Russia itself is a combatant this time. I‘m not sure how to compare it to the Soviet Union supplying North Vietnam while engaged with U.S. forces.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I don't know the literal "sloppy joes" but I've been enough places in Uncle's army to know the places like it (hell the one outside the gates at my first post that we called the "Stab & Jab"  ) so I can sit here and raise a shot glass in honor of that place. Thank you for the service, the photos & most importantly, the stories...


When fighting we would use a common reference point known as Bulls Eye, or B/E. Bulls Eye is the center of the universe when fighting, with targeting and kill calls all made in reference to it. When TDY to NAS Key West, we called Sloppy Joes Bulls Eye, as it really was the center of our evenings universe.

Over the period of about 12 years I spilled my cookies on each of the four corners in front of that place. When you know you will live forever, such events are a mote of dust in your evenings festivities.

And the Mel Fisher Museum is where some of the treasure from the Spanish Galleon the Atocha is displayed.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think the big difference is that Russia itself is a combatant this time. I‘m not sure how to compare it to the Soviet Union supplying North Vietnam while engaged with U.S. forces.


To me the big difference is location. In Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan it was ALWAYS in someone else's backyard. Now, it's in the next door neighbors yard, and everyone is afraid of spill out or escalation. When Trump was in the WH it's my opine that the world looked at him as a bit of a wildcard, unpredictable. I think he was and is very calculating, meanwhile the world behaved and we didn't get into any new conflicts. I think the world is looking at Putin in the same way, with one difference. He isn't walking quietly while carrying and using his big stick.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think the big difference is that Russia itself is a combatant this time. I‘m not sure how to compare it to the Soviet Union supplying North Vietnam while engaged with U.S. forces.


The US had never considered the Soviet Unions weapons supply to North-Vietnam as being a deceleration of war by Russia onto the USA.
So nothing unusual by whatever countries supplying conventional weapons to whom ever. 
The Cuba crisis I think is a far better comparison when it comes to a direct threat towards a Super power.

But the Czar will use even conventional "excessive" weapon support towards the Ukraine, to twist/ further convince his population towards this "necessary"war.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe from an individuals personal interpretation, but not according to some international law.
> 
> E.g. when the USA supported Iraq in their war against Iran - no one claimed that he US had therefore declared war on Iran, neither had any Arab or Middle-east country claimed that the US waged or declared war on them by supplying Israel - even during their own Mid-east wars. Though France and Soviet Russia had supplied huge weapon deliveries to Iraq(during the Iran/Iraq war) Iran never claimed that they would see this as a declaraion of war by France or Russia. When the USA and others supported the Mujahedin in Afghanistan even Soviet-Russia never claimed that to be a declaration of war.
> There is to my knowledge no international law that would forbid e.g. NATO members to supply weapons to the Ukraine (there are national laws e.g. Germany that forbid weapon sales or deliveries into war prone or war zone areas). However even those laws have not stopped Germany from supplying the Ukraine with weapons some weeks ago.
> ...



Scholarly opinion on this goes both ways, but as a practical matter, weapons are best destroyed before being put to use, which implies that each state can define what it considers as an act of war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The US had never considered the Soviet Unions weapons supply to North-Vietnam as being a deceleration of war by Russia onto the USA.
> So nothing unusual by whatever countries supplying conventional weapons to whom ever.
> The Cuba crisis I think is a far better comparison when it comes to a direct threat towards a Super power.
> 
> ...



That's as much a matter of the threat of nuclear war as it is the historical backdrop of neutrality. We certainly had no problem bombing overland supply routes from China until the limitations on bombing were enacted.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ..........which implies that each state can define what it considers as an act of war.


 but that is exactly as to how the Czar tries to "justify" his war onto the Ukraine= which goes hand in hand with his ambition to resurrect the Czarist empire.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I don't know the literal "sloppy joes" but I've been enough places in Uncle's army to know the places like it (hell the one outside the gates at my first post that we called the "Stab & Jab"  ) so I can sit here and raise a shot glass in honor of that place. Thank you for the service, the photos & most importantly, the stories...











Sloppy Joe's


A Key West Tradition




sloppyjoes.com


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Over the period of about 12 years I spilled my cookies on each of the four corners in front of that place. When you know you will live forever, such events are a mote of dust in your evenings festivities.


Spent my day there during a cruise stop over. It was raining pretty hard so not much site seeing was done. I managed to sit at every seat at the bar so I can say I sat in the same seat as Ernest Hemmingway!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 12, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Apr 12, 2022)

Man, I want to be BiffF15 when I grow up.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> but that is exactly as to how the Czar tries to "justify" his war onto the Ukraine= which goes hand in hand with his ambition to resurrect the Czarist empire.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



The justification for the invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do with interdicting the shipment of weapons, from my understanding; it was, as you say, about rebuilding the old empire. 

I'm not sure how your point here applies to my point about neutrality and weapons-shipments.


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## J_P_C (Apr 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


>



personally i would blame a corrosion - it may kill any type of equipment to the extent of total dissapearance... sorry Vlad, from Poland with love...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

_A Ukrainian official on Tuesday said that Russia is using mobile crematoriums to dispose of bodies in Mariupol in an attempt to cover up evidence of war crimes and hide the number of people that have died.

In an interview with CNN, Donestk region military governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said that Russian troops were taking the bodies in order to destroy them in "territory not controlled by Ukraine" in an attempt to hide "evidence of genocide."

"They are using mobile crematoriums and mobile cremation machines and, also, taking people out, taking bodies of the dead in the street and the dead from collapsing buildings," Kyrylenko said, adding they were taking the bodies to destroy them in "territory not controlled by Ukraine."

"They're hiding, since the emergence of the evidence of war crimes in Bucha and the evidence of genocide, they're now hiding the evidence," with the mobile creamtion chambers, he added.

Kyrylenko's comments come as Mariupol's mayor on Monday said that more than 10,000 civilians could be dead in the city. Kyrylenko upped that estimate, saying officials are now looking at between 20,000 and 22,000 dead. _









Donestk official: Russia using mobile crematoriums to dispose of bodies


A Ukrainian official on Tuesday said that Russia is using mobile crematoriums to dispose of bodies in Mariupol in an attempt to cover up evidence of war crimes and hide the number of people that ha…




thehill.com





It's galling to know that Putin and the other architects of this atrocity will likely never face justice ... and likely that the Russian people will never know of it, too -- meaning denialism will probably flourish after the war.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 12, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Man, I want to be BiffF15 when I grow up.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The justification for the invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do with interdicting the shipment of weapons, from my understanding; it was, as you say, about rebuilding the old empire.
> 
> I'm not sure how your point here applies to my point about neutrality and weapons-shipments.


NATO states had shipped increasingly weapons to the Ukraine already before Putin's attack on February. This and the prevailing intention of NATO and the Ukraine viewing onto even a closer cooperation with each other, was what gave Putin the reason to justify his expansion dreams.
I suspect (I might be very wrong) Putin in his initial attack only used in vast majority secondary and conscript units (mixed with some elite units) hoping for an easy victory.
Continued weapon deliveries from NATO (if Russia holds a far more effective conventional force in reserve) might get him to use those and even achieve a broad consent in
doing so by the population.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> NATO states had shipped increasingly weapons to the Ukraine already before Putin's attack on February. This and the prevailing intention of NATO and the Ukraine viewing onto even a closer cooperation with each other, was what gave Putin the reason to justify his expansion dreams.



The shipment of weapons is found nowhere in Putin's justifications. Look at the fulminating speech he gave on the brink of the war -- no mention of NATO shipping weapons, only mention of Ukraine representing an existential threat and vowing to block its accession to NATO and reincorporate it into Russia.

So sorry, I disagree with you that this is germane to my point about arms shipments by a neutral being an act of war. It's not.



Jagdflieger said:


> I suspect (I might be very wrong) Putin in his initial attack only used in vast majority secondary and conscript units (mixed with some elite units) hoping for an easy victory.
> Continued weapon deliveries from NATO (if Russia holds a far more effective conventional force in reserve) might get him to use those and even achieve a broad consent in
> doing so by the population.
> 
> ...



The vast majority of Russian ground forces are conscripts serving one-year sente -- uh, _enlistments_.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The shipment of weapons is found nowhere in Putin's justifications. Look at the fulminating speech he gave on the brink of the war -- no mention of NATO shipping weapons, only mention of Ukraine representing an existential threat and vowing to block its accession to NATO and reincorporate it into Russia.
> 
> So sorry, I disagree with you that this is germane to my point about arms shipments by a neutral being an act of war. It's not.


No problem - Putin's agenda isn't restricted to just one propaganda speech - see: February 8th.








Russian President Putin claims NATO arming Ukraine with weapons amid border tussle


Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations have continued to push weaponry into Ukraine




www.republicworld.com






Thumpalumpacus said:


> The vast majority of Russian ground forces are conscripts serving one-year sente -- uh, _enlistments_.


So was IIRC the US Army during the Vietnam war - why they never send in the professionals (more then a million?) - I wouldn't know. 

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No problem - Putin's agenda isn't restricted to just one propaganda speech - see: February 8th.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm off to work right now but will answer this tonight. Have a great day!

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm off to work right now but will answer this tonight. Have a great day!


You too - and spend some time on the related articles shown in the post - very interesting to see the "confidence" as apposed to what they actually did later on

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> NATO states had shipped increasingly weapons to the Ukraine already before Putin's attack on February. This and the prevailing intention of NATO and the Ukraine viewing onto even a closer cooperation with each other, was what gave Putin the reason to justify his expansion dreams.
> I suspect (I might be very wrong) Putin in his initial attack only used in vast majority secondary and conscript units (mixed with some elite units) hoping for an easy victory.
> Continued weapon deliveries from NATO (if Russia holds a far more effective conventional force in reserve) might get him to use those and even achieve a broad consent in
> doing so by the population.
> ...


Putin's invasion of the Ukraine has nothing to do with NATO.

This all goes back to 2014 when the Ukrainian people ousted their current president and his cabinet, who were corrupt Kremlin puppets. Putin then moved into the Crimea and Donbas to "protect ethnic Russians".
Between the early 90's and 2014, the Ukraine had been receiving military aid and training from Western nations, so again, this has ZERO to do with NATO.

Any former Soviet satellite that hinted at wanting to be closer to the west, has come under Putin's attempt at "protection":
Georgia
Moldova
Ukraine

This is all an attempt to regain former Soviet territory.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Putin's invasion of the Ukraine has nothing to do with NATO.
> 
> This all goes back to 2014 when the Ukrainian people ousted their current president and his cabinet, who were corrupt Kremlin puppets. Putin then moved into the Crimea and Donbas to "protect ethnic Russians".
> Between the early 90's and 2014, the Ukraine had been receiving military aid and training from Western nations, so again, this has ZERO to do with NATO.
> ...


The present Ukraine war has* everything *to do with NATO - totally aside from his agenda of wanting to recreate the ex Czarist empire.
NATO undermined his intentions towards the Ukraine - but never ensured Ukraine's safety - as such they the Ukrainians are now paying the price for those sloppy just talking and weaseling Western NATO politicians.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> So was IIRC the US Army during the Vietnam war - why they never send in the professionals (more then a million?) - I wouldn't know.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


Peak troop strength in Vietnam was over 543,000, that was in 1968. Although the US maintained a draft during this period, you can't compare the typical draftee of the Vietnam era to Russian conscript of today. If you were drafted during the Vietnam era, you had 6 to 8 weeks of boot camp and then after that you received specialty training related to your chosen or assigned career field. Some of our members who were Vietnam War era veterans can expand on this.

My brother enlisted in the US Army during fall of 1966, after boot camp he went to jump school and was eventually assigned to the 101st Airborne. I know he attended several other courses related to combat training before he was deployed and although he was given ample leave on several occasions, he didn't arrive in Vietnam until January 1968, right at the beginning of the Tet Offensive. According to reports, the current Russian conscripts are poorly trained and equipped.


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The present Ukraine war has* everything *to do with NATO - totally aside from his agenda of wanting to recreate the ex Czarist empire.
> *NATO undermined his intentions towards the Ukraine - but never ensured Ukraine's safety *- as such they the Ukrainians are now paying the price for those sloppy just talking and weaseling Western NATO politicians.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


And was it NATO's duty to proactively protect a non-member?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Peak troop strength in Vietnam was over 543,000, that was in 1968. Although the US maintained a draft during this period, you can't compare the typical draftee of the Vietnam era to Russian conscript of today. If you were drafted during the Vietnam era, you had 6 to 8 weeks of boot camp and then after that you received specialty training related to your chosen or assigned career field. Some of our members who were Vietnam War era veterans can expand on this.
> 
> My brother enlisted in the US Army during fall of 1966, after boot camp he went to jump school and was eventually assigned to the 101st Airborne. I know he attended several other courses related to combat training before he was deployed and although he was given ample leave on several occasions, he didn't arrive in Vietnam until January 1968, right at the beginning of the Tet Offensive. According to reports, the current Russian conscripts are poorly trained and equipped.


IIRC the peak strength of US forces in Vietnam was 750,000. But never mind how many, the point I was trying to make was that even though the US (if correct) had a million
full time professional army - 85-90% of those serving as grunts in Vietnam were draftees. Off course well equipped - but certainly not living up to the expertise or motivation 
of a professional soldier.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And was it NATO's duty to proactively protect a non-member?


That is something the politicians will need to answer for. Putin's Czarist ambitions had become absolutely obvious since his speech at the German parliament in December 1990.
As such no politician would be able to claim " I didn't know".
So IMO if one rightfully wants to protect/assist e.g. the Ukraine from Putin's agenda - then guarantees need to be given to Ukraine in the first place (many years ago) and a clear warning towards Putin as to what happens if he intends to use military force. And not just talk and weasel around after Putin placed his cards on the table.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> IIRC the peak strength of US forces in Vietnam was 750,000. But never mind how many, the point I was trying to make was that even though the US (if correct) had a million
> full time professional army - 85-90% of those serving as grunts in Vietnam were draftees. Off course well equipped - *but certainly not living up to the expertise or motivation
> of a professional soldier.*
> 
> ...


Peak troop strength in Vietnam: 543,482 (April 30, 1968).



https://post3legion.org/Vietnam_Statistics.pdf



As far as "not living up to the expertise or motivation of a professional soldier", that's debatable. For what conscripted Vietnam vets had to put up with in-country (and upon their return) they did very well, not so much supporting the mission, but to the survival of themselves and their fellow soldier. Their motivation was to survive their tour and get home as many of them saw they were fighting a politically winless war for a corrupt government who was relying on the US to do the bulk of their fighting. ARVN soldiers used to call the US "THE BIG PX."

My brother fought in Hue as the Tet offensive was winding down, his unit relieved Marines who were there and who took the brunt of the fighting. It was still pretty "hot" there although his unit was told that most of the fighting was over. Although Tet was a military victory for the US, my brother saw it as a victory of survival and could care less about what was considered a successful military counteroffensive (against a well motivated enemy)

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> *That is something the politicians will need to answer for.* Putin's Czarist ambitions had become absolutely obvious since his speech at the German parliament in December 1990.
> As such no politician would be able to claim " I didn't know".
> So IMO if one rightfully wants to protect/assist e.g. the Ukraine from Putin's agenda - then guarantees need to be given to Ukraine in the first place (many years ago) and a clear warning towards Putin as to what happens if he intends to use military force. And not just talk and weasel around after Putin placed his cards on the table.
> 
> ...


As the Ukraine was NOT a NATO member, I see this as a moot point.

Was NATO responsible for Russia's incursion into Georgia as well? I think not.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> As the Ukraine was NOT a NATO member, I see this as a moot point.


Spoken like a politician - sorry since it doesn't mirror the facts


FLYBOYJ said:


> Was NATO responsible for Russia's incursion into Georgia as well? I think not.


I am not sure right now as to what extend Georgia was trying to warm up to NATO and vice-versa - but I do recall that there was such an issue with Shevardnadze and Germany's foreign minister Genscher who were very fond of such an idea. 
A solid intervention by NATO or the USA might very well have taught the becoming Czar a very early lesson and a Ukraine would never have happened.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## SaparotRob (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> As the Ukraine was NOT a NATO member, I see this as a moot point.
> 
> Was NATO responsible for Russia's incursion into Georgia as well? I think not.


It’s not at all NATO’s fault but that is irrelevant to Pee Wee Putler’s “reality “. 
Under the mutual agreement to protect Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s nukes, can countries assist Ukraine, NATO member or not?

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Spoken like a politician - sorry since *it doesn't mirror the facts*


It sure does! Bottom line, the Ukraine WAS NOT a NATO member - cold hard fact! In 2014 few people, if any could have predicted that Putin would attempt an invastion of the Ukraine!


Jagdflieger said:


> I am not sure right now as to what extend Georgia was trying to warm up to NATO and vice-versa - but I do recall that there was such an issue with Shevardnadze and Germany's foreign minister Genscher who were very fond of such an idea.


And it never happened


Jagdflieger said:


> A solid intervention by NATO or the USA might very well have taught the becoming Czar a very early lesson and a Ukraine would never have happened.


What kind of intervention? Military? Risk WW3???

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It’s not at all NATO’s fault but that is irrelevant to Pee Wee Putler’s “reality “.


Certainly not all


SaparotRob said:


> Under the mutual agreement to protect Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s nukes, can countries assist Ukraine, NATO member or not?


Off course, and not just now - already years ago that is exactly what these weasel politicians should have done - instead of just inciting/encouraging Putin with silly actions.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Certainly not all
> 
> Off course, and not just now - already years ago that is exactly what these weasel politicians should have done - instead of just inciting/encouraging Putin with silly actions.
> 
> ...


So let me ask you - as a member of a European country, would you had been willing to go and fight or have one of your sons or daughters fight back then? Would you had been willing to risk a possible nuclear war? Same situation exists today.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It sure does! Bottom line, the Ukraine WAS NOT a NATO member - cold hard fact! In 2014 few people, if any could have predicted that Putin would attempt an invastion of the Ukraine!


This isn't about the Ukraine being a NATO member, it is about NATO inciting a Putin with stupid actions and as such providing him a reason to go for the Ukraine.
And as I said no politician can claim innocence toward Putin's goals since December 1990. He made it *absolutely* clear.


FLYBOYJ said:


> And it never happened


What never happened?


FLYBOYJ said:


> What kind of intervention? Military? Risk WW3???


Oh I see - now it is about (in the worst case) attacking a country that possesses nukes. A sudden no-go what a surprise.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The present Ukraine war has* everything *to do with NATO - totally aside from his agenda of wanting to recreate the ex Czarist empire.
> NATO undermined his intentions towards the Ukraine - but never ensured Ukraine's safety - as such they the Ukrainians are now paying the price for those sloppy just talking and weaseling Western NATO politicians.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


I hate to say this, but that sounds almost verbatim for something one would read at RT.

And if you have already forgotten in the few weeks since Russia launched it's offensive, Putin invaded the Ukraine to liberate it from Nazis.

You can beleive what you want, but that doesn't change what's actually been going in since 1991.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> This isn't about the Ukraine being a NATO member, it is about NATO inciting a Putin with stupid actions and as such providing him a reason to go for the Ukraine.


The only "incitement" I can see NATO do was expand. During the same time the west tried to bring Russia into the west economically and Russia seemed to be doing quite well until, as you say "the Czar" saw things differently


Jagdflieger said:


> And as I said no politician can claim innocence toward Putin's goals since December 1990. He made it *absolutely* clear.


1990? Putin wasn't even thought of!!! The former Soviet Union fell in 1991. Boris Yeltsin was in power July 1991 – 31 December 1999. Putin didn't come into play until the late 1990s. Became Prime Minister in 2008 and President in 2012. 


Jagdflieger said:


> What never happened?


Georgia joining NATO


Jagdflieger said:


> Oh I see - now it is about (in the worst case) attacking a country that possesses nukes. A sudden no-go what a surprise.


It should be, especially for the countries next door to the combatants!!! Would you do it?!?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 12, 2022)

I’m just wondering how far we can go without starting WW III. I am very concerned about the Russian drive in Eastern Ukraine. Mariupol seems to be in serious danger. Odesa is threatened. If Pee Wee Putler succeeds in his quest for the land bridge to Occupied Crimea, it will be a victory. The RF is positioning itself to take energy rich areas and cripple Ukraine’s economy and access to the sea. 
I don’t have any ideas. Just venting.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> So let me ask you - as a member of a European country, would you had been willing to go and fight or have one of your sons or daughters fight back then? Would you had been willing to risk a possible nuclear war? Same situation exists today.


*Yes *and far better risking a military confrontation with a Dimitri Medwedew those days ruling Russia and a totally incapable military, then as now with a very intelligent and dangerous Czar who has done a lot to increase Russia's conventional capabilities - mostly due to the Georgian fiasco. 

There is a saying in German; "Wehret den Anfaengen" (resists the beginnings) After Hitler had militarily occupied the Rhineland in 1935 - and the French army would have reacted Hitler and his gang would have been history after 2 weeks if not within a week.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> 1990? Putin wasn't even thought of!!! The former Soviet Union fell in 1991. Boris Yeltsin was in power July 1991 – 31 December 1999. Putin didn't come into play until the late 1990s. Became Prime Minister in 2008 and President in 2012.


It is not that he was no one - otherwise the German parliament wouldn't have invited him as a guest speaker in December 1990
So the moment this fellow was able to grab the reigns in the Kremlin - all alarm bells should/must have rung.

But obviousy CIA/BND/MI6 etc. etc. must have all been sleeping or those lame politicians never bothered to read those reports seriously.

In July 1998 Pres. Boris Yeltsin made Putin director of the (FSB; the KGB's domestic successor), and shortly thereafter he became secretary of the influential Security Council. Yeltsin, who was searching for an heir to assume his mantle, appointed Putin prime minister in 1999.!!!!!!

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> *Yes *and far better risking a military confrontation with a Dimitri Medwedew those days ruling Russia and a totally incapable military, then as now with a very intelligent and dangerous Czar who has done a lot to increase Russia's conventional capabilities - mostly due to the Georgian fiasco.


Well your opinion - I'd like to see how the rest of Europe would feel about starting a nuclear war that could potentially wipe out mankind







BUT - 

I do agree about dealing with the situation now as we have seen "a totally incapable military"

I think there's many other ways in dealing with this before risking nuclear war!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It is not that he was no one - otherwise the German parliament wouldn't have invited him as a guest speaker in December 1990
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


I think you still got your dates and speeches mixed up!

"*Putin quoted a 1990 speech by Manfred Wörner to support his position that NATO made a binding promise not to expand NATO into new countries in Eastern Europe"*

_The *Munich speech* was given by Russian president Vladimir Putin in Germany on *10 February 2007* at the Munich Security Conference._









2007 Munich speech of Vladimir Putin - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I think you still got your dates and speeches mixed up!
> 
> "*Putin quoted a 1990 speech by Manfred Wörner to support his position that NATO made a binding promise not to expand NATO into new countries in Eastern Europe"*
> 
> ...


*Sorry my bad - 2001 *- that is why I had highlighted his 1999!!!!! appointment. 









Deutscher Bundestag - Wortprotokoll der Rede Wladimir Putins im Deutschen Bundestag...


Wladimir Putin, Präsident der Russischen Föderation: Wortprotokoll der Rede am 25. September 2001 vor dem Deutschen Bundestag(Simultanübersetzung) Sehr geehrter Herr Präsident! Sehr...




www.bundestag.de





Unfortunately only in German.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> *Sorry my bad - 2001 *- that is why I had highlighted his 1999!!!!! appointment.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well I translated that speech and nothing (completed a word search) is made about "NATO made a binding promise not to expand NATO into new countries in Eastern Europe" In that speech text NATO is mentioned 3 times.

He made that comment in 2007 and at that time relations were still good and it seems he hasn't lost his mind yet!

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## BiffF15 (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> There is a saying in German; "Wehret den Anfaengen" (resists the beginnings) After Hitler had militarily occupied the Rhineland in 1935 - and the French army would have reacted Hitler and his gang would have been history after 2 weeks if not within a week.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


There is a saying in English, "Hindsight is 20/20". 

The twenty twenty part is regarded as perfect vision by the optometrist / eye doctor.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> There is a saying in English, "Hindsight is 20/20".
> 
> The twenty twenty part is regarded as perfect vision by the optometrist / eye doctor.


There is also an English saying - "history repeats itself" = or "Learning from history"

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Well I translated that speech and nothing (completed a word search) is made about "NATO made a binding promise not to expand NATO into new countries in Eastern Europe" In that speech text NATO is mentioned 3 times.
> 
> He made that comment in 2007 and at that time relations were still good and it seems he hasn't lost his mind yet!


That speech wasn't about just NATO, but Putin referring to German-Russian history as an example that both nations prospered whilst being allied/aligned - him clearly being
in awe of Czarist Russia and indicating/hinting that Germany might reconsider it's allegiance. 

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> That speech wasn't about just NATO, but Putin referring to German-Russian history as an example that both nations prospered whilst being allied/aligned - him clearly being
> in awe of Czarist Russia and indicating/hinting that Germany might reconsider it's allegiance.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


Well I read it (through translation) and I see no real "bells or whistles" that would have drawn any alarm. To me it sounded like a typical political speech that gave little implications of what he would do today.

Anyway - the latest and I'm not surprised.









Biden says Russia is committing 'genocide'; Putin says peace talks at 'dead end': April 12 recap


Russia's invasion of Ukraine is proceeding as planned and peace talks have reached a "dead end," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. Full recap.




www.yahoo.com


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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> There is also an English saying - "history repeats itself" = or "Learning from history"
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


The full saying, is:
"he who forgets history, is doomed to repeat it"...

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Anyway - the latest and I'm not surprised.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Neither am I, and not anyone else who is familiar with his Czarist worldview - clearly obvious in his 2001 speech. 

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 12, 2022)

Concern over possible use of chemical weapons in Ukraine


STORY: Ukraine officials said Tuesday (April 12) it was checking reports chemical weapons were used by Russian forces in the besieged port city of Mariupol. Hours earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy referred to the possibility in his nightly video address."Today we heard a statement...




www.yahoo.com


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Neither am I, and not anyone else who is familiar with his Czarist worldview - clearly obvious in his 2001 speech.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


If you say so...


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## wlewisiii (Apr 12, 2022)

Another bit of excellent news!



The kremlin has verified it by quickly screaming "fake news!"

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## Denniss (Apr 12, 2022)

A traitor tried to escape putting on an ukrainian's soldier uniform?
What a shame

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Any former Soviet satellite that hinted at wanting to be closer to the west, has come under Putin's attempt at "protection":
> Georgia
> Moldova
> Ukraine
> ...


It's to their credit that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were able to quickly get themselves under the NATO and EU umbrella before Russia woke up.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Another bit of excellent news!
> 
> 
> 
> The kremlin has verified it by quickly screaming "fake news!"



Reminds me of Hess.









Will We Ever Know Why Nazi Leader Rudolf Hess Flew to Scotland in the Middle of World War II?


The remarkable tale of insanity, espionage, and conspiracies remains unanswered after 75 years




www.smithsonianmag.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's to their credit that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were able to quickly get themselves under the NATO and EU umbrella before Russia woke up.


Not sure if many recall that in 2014, there were "separatist" movements in those countries, too.
The seperatist leaders were arrested and found to be members of the FSB.

So also to their credit, is good internal security.

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## Glider (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> This isn't about the Ukraine being a NATO member, it is about NATO inciting a Putin with stupid actions and as such providing him a reason to go for the Ukraine.
> And as I said no politician can claim innocence toward Putin's goals since December 1990. He made it *absolutely* clear.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


An observation on the emphasis of your words.

_it is about NATO inciting a Putin with stupid actions and as such providing him a reason to go for the Ukraine_

NATO did nothing, nothing at all to incite Putin. Putin acted in such a dictatorial manner, *that nations originally in the Warsaw Pact and close to Russia chose *to leave the close link with Russia *and asked to join NATO*. 

NATO *didn't* automatically say yes. They asked them to meet NATO standards before agreeing to accept them into NATO. The fact that *NATO declined the Ukraine's request *to join NATO seems to have been forgotten.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No problem - Putin's agenda isn't restricted to just one propaganda speech - see: February 8th.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's well after Putin had started building up his invasion forces, and only two weeks before unleashing them. So it seems clear that even if NATO sending arms to Ukraine irritated him, it was not the reason he was stacking ~180,000 troops on Ukraine's borders, and holding exercises on one of those borders with Belorus.

And it still doesn't address my point that arming a nation already at war is probably an act of war and opens up the suppliers to attack - because in this case Putin didn't attack the suppliers, he merely *renewed* his attack against Ukraine.

Shall we next blame NATO for the invasion of Crimea? The only thing that happened was an autocrat friendly to Putin got overthrown in favor of one who looked westward. *NATO extended no offer of membership*, and even if it had, the right of a country to self-determination is pretty much settled in international law.

Sorry, but I still don't see any relevance at all to my point that shipping arms may be an act of war. If Putin thought it was in February, why didn't he attack NATO then? Why has he not attacked NATO in the intervening seven weeks? That's right, because he doesn't want a war with NATO, he wants to seize Ukraine.

This blaming NATO for Putin's bloody and disastrous decision to invade is odd, to put it mildly.

He can still attack resupply coming across the Polish border and probably have sounder justification than for his initial decision to *renew* his invasion of Ukraine, due to the historical precedents which have been set.



Jagdflieger said:


> So was IIRC the US Army during the Vietnam war - why they never send in the professionals (more then a million?) - I wouldn't know.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



The US was absolutely set to send professionals and almost surely did. My dad was originally an air-defense artillery guy who worked on SAMs. He wanted to go fight and so cross-trained as a door-gunner on some helo or other, but -- thank Buddha -- got in a serious auto accident three or four days before shipping out in 1971, and so was disqualified from flight duty for the remainder of his time in the Army. He'd enlisted, not a draftee, in 1957.

********



Jagdflieger said:


> After Hitler had militarily occupied the Rhineland in 1935 - and the French army would have reacted Hitler and his gang would have been history after 2 weeks if not within a week.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



A lot easier when the opponent doesn't have four or five thousand nukes. For that reason this is a really inapt historical analogue.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> There is a saying in German; "Wehret den Anfaengen" (resists the beginnings) After Hitler had militarily occupied the Rhineland in 1935 - and the French army would have reacted Hitler and his gang would have been history after 2 weeks if not within a week.


Germany occupied the Rhineland in 1936.

And France at that time was ill-equipped to do anything about it.

When Poland was invaded in 1939, France's promise to help defend her resulted in a half-hearted invasion of the Saar which lasted a week.

I seriously doubt France alone could have stopped Germany without the assistance of other nations. They couldn't even stop Germany from invading in 1940, when they knew well in advance that war was coming and had time to prepare.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When Poland was invaded in 1939, France's promise to help defend her resulted in a half-hearted invasion of the Saar which lasted a week.



To be fair, that was more a lack of political will than the forces arrayed against each other. The Germans had ten or twelve reserve divisions guarding the nascent Siegfried Line, while the French had eighty or so on their Eastern front along with plenty of armored brigades; and French tanks were generally superior to their German equivalents, which were scarce in the area.

The Third Republic, on the other hand, was riven with dissent, and the French found themselves in a war they did not want, making a promise they could not keep, to help Poland.

That last statement applies to the UK as well, for what it's worth.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 12, 2022)

And in the end, to ensure the victory over Fascist Germany, Poland and all of Eastern Europe was handed over as spoil to the Communist USSR.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 12, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> More random shots.



Golden, Biff, thanks for sharing!


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## nuuumannn (Apr 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Ukrainians are now paying the price for those sloppy just talking and weaseling Western NATO politicians.



Wow! Someone has an unsettled beef...

Sorry, NATO doesn't _have_ politicians. NATO is an agreement between signatory nations. I think in your vitriolic stance you completely misconstrue the structure and nature of the organisation and how it fits into each member state's national policy. Go do some homework, man.

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## at6 (Apr 12, 2022)

Poor Putin. His father was a pig dropping and his mother was a puddle of pee. The part of him that might have been decent ran down his daddy's left leg.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 12, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And in the end, to ensure the victory over Fascist Germany, Poland and all of Eastern Europe was handed over as spoil to the Communist USSR.



Possession is 9/10 of the law. In the war-weary world of 1945, not very many were willing to go on to fight the Red Army after Germany had already submitted. In that sense we might say that the Brits lost their war, America came out even-handed, and the Soviets won at a dear price.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Possession is 9/10 of the law. In the war-weary world of 1945, not very many were willing to go on to fight the Red Army after Germany had already submitted. In that sense we might say that the Brits lost their war, America came out even-handed, and the Soviets won at a dear price.


One of the reasons that the western Allies weren't going to commit to pushing the Soviet Union back, was because the Pacific Theater was still raging and the best estimates showed they were looking at least another year of savage battles in order to defeat the Japanese.

This is why Patton was "shuushed". The powers-that-be wanted the fighting in Europe to be over so they could concentrate on the Pacific and they trusted Stalin to keep his word...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> One of the reasons that the western Allies weren't going to commit to pushing the Soviet Union back, was because the Pacific Theater was still raging and the best estimates showed they were looking at least another year of savage battles in order to defeat the Japanese.
> 
> This is why Patton was "shuushed". The powers-that-be wanted the fighting in Europe to be over so they could concentrate on the Pacific and they trusted Stalin to keep his word...



Right, and even after handling the last Axis power standing, who had the stomach for another five years or so of bloodbath? And that's just a ball-park figure.

Patton was backchannelled because he was good at war but not politics. I think we can all agree that was above his paygrade.

FDR's decision at Yalta to agree to Russian dominance in Eastern Europe sucked for the folks who got steamrollered by the USSR. But the two largest powers in the world tearing at each other for an undetermined period of time wouldn't do anyone any good.

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## fubar57 (Apr 13, 2022)

Vultee Vengeance Mk.II - 1/48 scale model construction kit - Dorawings


Vultee Vengeance Mk.II - 1/48 scale model construction kit. Ready to assemble scale models kit. Contains part for one model. Buy from manufacturer | Dorawings




dorawings.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 13, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Vultee Vengeance Mk.II - 1/48 scale model construction kit - Dorawings
> 
> 
> Vultee Vengeance Mk.II - 1/48 scale model construction kit. Ready to assemble scale models kit. Contains part for one model. Buy from manufacturer | Dorawings
> ...


Set aside to order on my next payday. I haven't made a model in... well, literally, decades. But that's a damn good reason to finally start again.

ETA: looked around on their website. Wow. Gonna have to order a CW-21 model too!

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 13, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And in the end, to ensure the victory over Fascist Germany, Poland and all of Eastern Europe was handed over as spoil to the Communist USSR.



There's a difference between "handed over" and not being able to do much about harsh reality. Yalta was pretty much a rubber stamping of the situation as it then was - by the start of February 1945 the Soviet Union had already overrun almost all of Poland, Czechoslovakia and large parts of the Balkans, and was already well across the German border in some sectors.

Churchill did ask the UK's Chiefs of Staff in April or May 1945 to look at the possibility of offensive operations against Soviet forces to kick them out of Poland. Their conclusion was that even with the support of 10 reformed German divisions and partisans within Poland, there was little to no chance of a rapid victory. And, without a rapid victory, the next step total war vs Russia. Of which there was little to no chance of winning.

The assessment was called 'Operation Unthinkable', which probably gives you some insight into the thinking. Their assessment was overly generous in terms of actual Soviet combat manpower and somewhat overstates Soviet tactical airpower. Even so, the Western allies would have faced a manpower deficit of about 1:2 (after having enjoyed a manpower advantage against the Germans of nearly 3:1).

Even as spent as it was from the Battle for Berlin, the Soviet Army was still a formidable opponent in May 1945. And even at this time, there was paranoia about a Western attack - Soviet forces in Germany and Poland were stood back up temporarily in June 1945, on a defensive posture.

Of course, the UK assessment was performed without the knowledge of nuclear weapons.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Sorry, NATO doesn't _have_ politicians. ......


Absolutely amazing and devastating for me to see, as to how little to nothing some people know and understand about NATO and it's setup.

*NATO*
National delegations to NATO

Each NATO member country has a delegation at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, and contributes to the consultation process, *which allows NATO to take collective decisions or actions.*

A delegation represents its country at NATO and has a status similar to that of an embassy.
It is headed by an "ambassador" (also called "permanent representative"), *who acts on instructions from his or her capital *and reports back to the national authorities.
With all the delegations in the same building, they are able to maintain formal and informal contacts with each other, as well as with NATO's International Staff and International Military Staff.
Delegations can vary in size and are *principally* *staffed with civil servants *from the ministries of foreign affairs and defense.
The responsibility and task of each delegation is to represent its member country at NATO. The authority of each delegation comes from its home country's government. It acts on instruction from its capital and reports back on NATO decisions and projects.

Each member country is represented on every NATO committee, at every level. At the top, each member country is represented on the *North Atlantic Council (NAC), the principal political decision-making body within NATO, by an ambassador.*

The ambassadors are supported by their national delegation, composed of advisers and officials who represent their country on different NATO committees, subordinate to the NAC. Delegations can also be supported by experts from capitals on certain matters.

The delegation is headed by an ambassador, *who is appointed by his/ her government for a period ranging between one to eight years.*

The staff of a delegation can vary considerably in size, from the smallest at under half a dozen to the largest at about 200. It comprises *civil servants* from the ministries of foreign affairs, the ministry of defense and other relevant ministries.

The International Staff and International Military Staff at NATO Headquarters *support *the work of the delegations. The military arm of NATO has absolutely no say in regards
to the *political decisions *made by the *politicians *at NATO. They are instructed by those *politicians* as to what and when to do.

North Atlantic Council (NAC)

The North Atlantic Council (NAC) is the *principal political decision-making body *within NATO and is the ultimate authority at the head of a network of committees.
The Council also meets from time to time at the level of *Heads of State *and *Heads of Government *or *Ministers of Foreign Affairs *and *Ministers of Defense*.

The head of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) is presently the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg – Norway's former Prime Minister.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To be fair, that was more a lack of political will than the forces arrayed against each other. The Germans had ten or twelve reserve divisions guarding the nascent Siegfried Line, while the French had eighty or so on their Eastern front along with plenty of armored brigades; and French tanks were generally superior to their German equivalents, which were scarce in the area.
> 
> The Third Republic, on the other hand, was riven with dissent, and the French found themselves in a war they did not want, making a promise they could not keep, to help Poland.
> 
> That last statement applies to the UK as well, for what it's worth.


1939 was far to late. the initiative to rid the world of the Nazis was during the military occupation of the Rhineland in March 1936 by the Wehrmacht.
Also one need to keep in mind that the Rhineland was under the jurisdiction of the League of Nations (forerunner of the UN). As such it would not just have been on the shoulders
of the French army.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> .....And it still doesn't address my point that arming a nation already at war is probably an act of war and opens up the suppliers to attack - because in this case Putin didn't attack the suppliers, he merely *renewed* his attack against Ukraine.....
> 
> ....Shall we next blame NATO for the invasion of Crimea? The only thing that happened was an autocrat friendly to Putin got overthrown in favor of one who looked westward. *NATO extended no offer of membership*, and even if it had, the right of a country to self-determination is pretty much settled in international law......


Somehow you don't seem to get my point or view

It is undeniable that Putin, especially since he started to control the Kremlin - was going to implement the necessary steps to resurrect the Czarist Russian empire.

1. E.g. The more or less non-action by the West in regards to Georgia - was an indication to him as to how he needs to evaluate a response by NATO or it's member-states.
2. The Occupying/Annexation of the Crimea - again was an indication to him as to how he needs to evaluate a response by NATO or it's member-states.
The most important issue for Putin is to find "a legal basis" or "acceptable motives" towards the UN and NATO in order to justify his "expansions" and for all those to come.
And it's is Putin who acts and as such turning the cards by forcing everyone to come up with a delayed solution or reaction.

Exactly as Hitler - if I don't get the Rhineland I will.... if I don't get Austria I will.... if I don't get Sudetenland I will... and so on. Did the appeasement work? no and at the end it
became a hell of a war.

Just because he officially complained on 8th of February about increasing weapons shipment by NATO members towards the Ukraine - does nowhere imply that these shipments
took place a week before. It is known that the Ukraine received increasing weapon-shipments since his annexation of the Crimea.

Neither the shipment of weapons during peacetime nor during wartime's constitute internationally a declaration of war towards other parties. Putin *never* claimed that it was or is
a declaration of war towards Russia. But a clear sign that NATO is trying to change the balance of power and as such the Ukraine posing a danger to Russia. especially in view of
becoming a future NATO member.
As such the more he can convince the world (UN) that he Russia is being threatened - the more he gets encouraged to carry out his plans of extension.

The right way IMO would have been to make it absolutely clear to him, that the annexation of the Crimea is not validated by NATO and it's members or the UN. In order to prevent
further expansions (especially military conducted expansions) NATO and it's members will give all necessary (including conventional weapons) support towards the Ukraine. In case
of a military attack onto the Ukraine by regular Russian units, NATO or it's members will not hesitate to send own military units to support the *neutral* Ukraine.
Independently negotiations need to be conducted between NATO the EU and the UN with Russia to agree towards a solution in regards to Crimea. In return NATO would need to
confirm that it will refrain from expanding its membership or NATO troops being present in a *neutral *Ukraine. (Putin won't live forever).

In such a scenario NATO would have been the active player by setting clear demands and proclamations and not just arming the Ukraine, keeping the membership option open and as such continuing to play into Putin's hands and thus giving him a "justifiable" reason towards his own people and parts of the world (UN) to attack the Ukraine.

Even if after such proclamations Putin had attacked the Ukraine he would never get support by the UN or any country except maybe North Korea and NATO wouldn't need to discuss for month about what to do. And nuclear war? No way IMO - because Putin couldn't justify the use and as such he won't use them.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> 1939 was far to late. the initiative to rid the world of the Nazis was during the military occupation of the Rhineland in March 1936 by the Wehrmacht.
> Also one need to keep in mind that the Rhineland was under the jurisdiction of the League of Nations (forerunner of the UN). As such it would not just have been on the shoulders
> of the French army.
> 
> ...



The League of Nations? You mean the League of Nations that put a firm stop to Mussolini's Ethiopian invasion? The League of Nations that halted Japan in its tracks? _That_ LoN?

Forgive me as I stifle a chuckle. The LoN was even more useless than the UN is today.

Comparing the reoccupation of the Rhineland and stopping it to this invasion of Ukraine and stopping _it_, is, as I wrote, inapt.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Somehow you don't seem to get my point or view
> 
> It is undeniable that Putin, especially since he started to control the Kremlin - was going to implement the necessary steps to resurrect the Czarist Russian empire.
> 
> ...



Explain how _any_ of that is germane to my point about neutrals shipping weapons to a warring party being an act of war. Be specific, and trim your words -- a taut argument needs no wall of text.

Your assigning blame to NATO is an entirely different matter than the point I made, which you replied to. I see no reason to answer points "replying" to mine when they don't actually do so.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The League of Nations? You mean the League of Nations that put a firm stop to Mussolini's Ethiopian invasion? The league of Natiobs that halted Japan in its tracks? _That_ LoN?
> 
> Forgive me as I stifle a chuckle. The LoN was even more useless than the UN is today.
> 
> Comparing the reoccupation of the Rhineland and stopping it to this invasion of Ukraine and stopping _it_, is, as I wrote, inapt.


What the UN is or what it is capable off I think is a different discussion - in regards to Korea, and e.g. Desert-storm no body complained on the Western side. 

The Rhineland occupation isn't in reference to the Ukraine issue but in reference to the Georgia incident - that is were Russian expansion more or less starts of. 

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Explain how _any_ of that is germane to my point about neutrals shipping weapons to a warring party being an act of war....


That is your personal view - which has no foundation in regards to international laws - or anyone ever having declared a war onto someone because of supplying arms to a belligerent party. Which I had stated already before.
So what is it that you are trying to proof or say?

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> That is your personal view - which has no foundation in regards to international laws - or anyone ever having declared a war onto someone because of supplying arms to a belligerent party. Which I had stated already before.
> So what is it that you are trying to proof or say?
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



And your personal view does?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> So what is it that you are trying to proof or say?



Have you really lost track of it as I've continually reminded you?

C'mon, man. Go back and reread the genesis of our sidebar here.




Jagdflieger said:


> What the UN is or what it is capable off I think is a different discussion - in regards to Korea, and e.g. Desert-storm no body complained on the Western side.
> 
> The Rhineland occupation isn't in reference to the Ukraine issue but in reference to the Georgia incident - that is were Russian expansion more or less starts of.
> 
> ...



Then it's even less germane, because if you read back to the inception of this discussion you'll find that I was talking specifically about the possibility of NATO shipping weapons to Ukraine being an act of war.

Here, let me go look it up for you, since you can't seem to muster the energy yourself.



Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course any supply of arms or ammo from neutral parties to a belligerent is by international understanding an act of war and susceptible to interdiction -- hence the undeclared war between Germany and America in autumn 1941 in the Atlantic.



There you go. Since then this discussion has turned into you pushing the goalposts and introducing red herrings, so unless you have something pertinent to say, I'm done with this sidebar. You have a nice day, now.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm done with this sidebar. You have a nice day, now.


Me too. I often think the forum needs a sidebar or OT sub forum. I suppose really OT or one on one banter can go to DMs.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Russian President Putin claims NATO arming Ukraine with weapons amid border tussle
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations have continued to push weaponry into Ukraine
> ...


Well, d’uh. Does Putin think that’s a revelation? Much of the entire free world is sending weapons to Ukraine. Hell, even the Kiwis.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Me too. I often think the forum needs a sidebar or OT sub forum. I suppose really OT or one on one banter can go to DMs.



I have a hard-and-fast rule: I never debate in PMs.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, d’uh. Does Putin think that’s a revelation? Much of the entire free world is sending weapons to Ukraine. Hell, even the Kiwis.


Even Japan is sending aid to the Ukraine.
While it's non-lethal equipment, it's still impressive.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

Looks like Finland is going to join NATO in the next few weeks, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61093302 Threatening the Finns backfired for Putin.

This would mean that every ship destined for Russia's European ports must either pass through NATO's Finnish/Estonian or Turkish waters or take the long way around to the Barents Sea. Of course Kaliningrad is already surrounded by NATO.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

What happens if Putin tomorrow begins firing missiles into Finland as a threat against joining NATO? The Alliance has clearly demonstrated a reluctance to come to the direct aid of any non-members that are attacked by Russia.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And your personal view does?


My personal view? 
show me a UN resolution or Article that states that delivering non ABC weapons into a war zone is considered to be an act of war.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course any supply of arms or ammo from neutral parties to a belligerent is by international understanding an act of war and susceptible to interdiction -- hence the undeclared war between Germany and America in autumn 1941 in the Atlantic.


International understanding! when was this international understanding ratified via a UN resolution? if not, then it is only your personal understanding


Thumpalumpacus said:


> There you go. Since then this discussion has turned into you pushing the goalposts and introducing red herrings, so unless you have something pertinent to say, I'm done with this sidebar. You have a nice day, now.


I have not pushed any goalposts nor introduced any red herrings.
You have a nice day now

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You have a nice day now

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## GrauGeist (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What happens if Putin tomorrow begins firing missiles into Finland as a threat against joining NATO? The Alliance has clearly demonstrated a reluctance to come to the direct aid of any non-members that are attacked by Russia.


Finland will kick Russia's ass.

They are not to be fooled with.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> My personal view?
> show me a UN resolution or Article that states that delivering non ABC weapons into a war zone is considered to be an act of war.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



Irrelevant, no one ever claimed there would be one.

My point simply was you keep throwing around your personal view which in itself has no foundation if anything either. You keep saying others have a lack of understanding on how NATO works, yet you seem to be no different. You post long copy and paste articles or info, highlighting in bold that support your view and glossing over and ignoring other parts that don’t support it.

All of you have good points, but its rather obvious that they are clouded by personal opinions based on your personal bias, and in some ways some negativity that is derived from opinions rather than fact.

Make sense comrade?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Finland will kick Russia's ass.
> 
> They are not to be fooled with.


The Finns remind me of Israelis. Living an in many ways idyllic life, but where every one is prepared for war.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 13, 2022)

At the negotiations, Japan gets the Kuril Islands. Would including Sakhalin Island be too much?

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

today in Warszawa at the front of russian ambassy....

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## SaparotRob (Apr 13, 2022)

You know they’re going to bring that stuff inside when no one is looking.

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## swampyankee (Apr 13, 2022)

Putin invaded Ukraine because he wanted to; it had no more to do with NATO's actions than did pre-20th Century Russia's invasions of Crimea or the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth did decades before NATO was formed.

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You know they’re going to bring that stuff inside when no one is looking.


i tend to agree with you.... , if so citizens will bring more tomorrow...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

Looks like Mariupol is going to fall to the Russians any day now.



Ukraine braces for fall of Mariupol to Russia

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## SaparotRob (Apr 13, 2022)

Putin said the talks are at a dead end, according to a New York Times headline. Does that mean he thinks he can take Eastern Ukraine? That’s too much of for him to get away with. 
Any stirrings in Georgia or Chechnya?


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putin said the talks are at a dead end, according to a New York Times headline. Does that mean he thinks he can take Eastern Ukraine?


I say yes, and he's right. The Ukrainians can only play defence. Notice they only retook northern Ukraine after the Russians departed, for the most part intact.

Putin's goal now is to take all of the Donbas and Mariupol and to connect Crimea to the Donbas. This is entirely feasible.

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I say yes, and he's right. The Ukrainians can only play defence. Notice they only retook northern Ukraine after the Russians departed, for the most part intact.
> 
> Putin's goal now is to take all of the Donbas and Mariupol and to connect Crimea to the Donbas. This is entirely feasible.


you should consider fact that Ukrainians opinion in this matter is slightly different - final result may be far from Putin's wishes - already is quite distant from his initial sick dreams.

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## Glider (Apr 13, 2022)

I think it's worth remembering that Finland are working closely with Sweden and there is a good chance that if Russia takes any direct action against Finland then Sweden will come to their aid. If they don't then there is a serious risk that Russia would tackle them first.

Finland and Sweden have some seriously impressive equipment. It certainly is at least as good, if not superior to the equipment that the Ukraine is having to use. Leopard 2 supported by F18 fighters, and Hawk in the GA role. Possibly Gripen as well.

It should also be worth remembering that the Best Russian forces have almost certainly been in action and will have suffered significant losses.

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

Here is my thought about NATO involvement in this crisis. If we accept definition of war forged by Clausevitz : *War is merely the continuation of policy by other means*. For me it means that actually we are already in war with russia. Some of NATO countries already accepted this fact and directed serious resources to support Ukraine, but some are trying to pretend that this is not a case.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> you should consider fact that Ukrainians opinion in this matter is slightly different - final result may be far from Putin's wishes - already is quite distant from his initial sick dreams.


The Ukrainians lack the offensive capability to take territory. They need more tanks, heavy artillery, etc. You don’t retake territory with MANPATS.

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Ukrainians lack the offensive capability to take territory. They need more tanks, heavy artillery, etc. You don’t retake territory with MANPATS.


sure, please explain your theories to Talibans.....

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## nuuumannn (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It is headed by an "ambassador" (also called "permanent representative"), *who acts on instructions from his or her capital *and reports back to the national authorities.



This is tiresome. *They act on behalf of their own government, so their national interests come first. *NATO acts based on the requirements of its own members, so NATO's "politicians" are NOT specifically NATO's, but those of member states acting in accordance with the collective wishes and agendas of member states. Call them politicians, call them ambassadors, diplomats, call them what you will, but NATO itself is a gathering of individuals representing the interests of member states. If a member state's agenda was different to the collective wishes of those at a NATO meeting, the NATO stuff comes second, you can guarantee that.

Again, Jagdflieger, just because a NATO member state acts, does NOT necessarily mean it is directly or always linked to NATO.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Ukrainians lack the offensive capability to take territory. They need more tanks, heavy artillery, etc. You don’t retake territory with MANPATS.


You're forgetting that the Ukrainians have retaken areas seized and held by Russians before the withdrawl from the Kyiv suburbs.

And they have more than just man portable weapons.
Just recently, their armored brigade tore a Russian armored column apart.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You're forgetting that the Ukrainians have retaken areas seized and held by Russians before the withdrawl from the Kyiv suburbs.
> 
> And they have more than just man portable weapons.
> Just recently, their armored brigade tore a Russian armored column apart.


I want to share your optimism, so I will. Go get them Ukraine.

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## Glider (Apr 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I want to share your optimism, so I will. Go get them Ukraine.


So do I, but unfortunately the Russians seem to have relearnt the lessons of the past. Concentrate your forces, ensure that you logistical tail is as short and secure as possible. Make sure your airpower is as close to the front line as possible and then wear your opponent down with superior firepower before striking.

The one pressure that may assist the Ukrainian forces is if Putin wants a big success for April 9th.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This is tiresome. *They act on behalf of their own government, so their national interests come first. *NATO acts based on the requirements of its own members, so NATO's "politicians" are NOT specifically NATO's, but those of member states acting in accordance with the collective wishes and agendas of member states. Call them politicians, call them ambassadors, diplomats, call them what you will, but NATO itself is a gathering of individuals representing the interests of member states. If a member state's agenda was different to the collective wishes of those at a NATO meeting, the NATO stuff comes second, you can guarantee that.
> 
> Again, Jagdflieger, just because a NATO member state acts, does NOT necessarily mean it is directly or always linked to NATO.



Kind of like ICAO…lol


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## nuuumannn (Apr 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kind of like ICAO…lol



Fancy that...


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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

fresh news - cruiser "Moskva" has been hit with Ukrainian Neptun system missile... - than looks like most potent ship of the Black Sea fleet has been eliminated from combat

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I have not pushed any goalposts nor introduced any red herrings.
> You have a nice day now



This is not the case, but I won't chase it down any further by listing them. The readership that may have followed the discussion can read our posts and decide for themselves; I'm confident they will see my point.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 13, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> than looks like most potent ship of the Black Sea fleet has been eliminated from combat



Wow! That's an impressive score. The Moskva is a powerful ship. It was on hand during the fracas on snake Island, too, so revenge must be sweet.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Regarding the Ukrainian need for arty -- I heard the news on the way home from work that the US has sent another $800 million in equipment.

_Following a call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Joe Biden announced Wednesday his administration is authorizing an additional $800 million for weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, including artillery and armored personnel carriers, as it braces to defend itself from an expected new Russian offensive.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby walked reporters through the aid package in an afternoon press briefing, saying it includes "new capabilities that we have not provided to Ukraine."

"We committed from the very beginning even before the invasion, to helping Ukraine be able to defend itself. This is a piece of that. And this is representative of the kinds of capabilities that the Ukrainians themselves have asked for and said they need as this fighting now gets focused on the eastern part of the country," he said.

"How that gets interpreted by the Russians. you can ask Mr. Putin and the Kremlin," Kirby added._









Biden announces $800M in new military aid for Ukraine


President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that he has authorized an additional $800 million in weapons, ammunition and other security assistance to Ukraine.




abcnews.go.com





IIRC, it includes 16 heavy howitzers, 40,000 rounds for them to shoot, and counter-battery radars to help defend against Russian arty. It also includes an unstated number of APCs and "additional helicopters". According to the Pentagon spokesman interviewed, this package was specifically tailored for the expected upcoming offensive, and it also includes training some Ukrainians outside of Ukraine to operate the systems -- mainly the artillery and its accompanying radar. This directly addresses 
A
 Admiral Beez
's concerns mentioned upthread, though in numbers I think we'd all like to see increased.



J_P_C said:


> fresh news - cruiser "Moskva" has been hit with Ukrainian Neptun system missile... - than looks like most potent ship of the Black Sea fleet has been eliminated from combat



Gosh, I hope this is true.

_Multiple Ukrainian sources have claimed that the nation's armed forces have hit the Russian cruiser Moskva in a guided-missile attack in the Black Sea. 

"It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!" claimed governor of Odesa Maksym Marchenko, referring to the cruiser's involvement in an attack on a Ukrainian border post. "Neptune missiles guarding the Black Sea caused very serious damage to the Russian ship." 

Independent confirmation may be difficult: weather in the region is poor, with heavy cloud cover, rain and winds of about 18 knots. Moskva was last observed departing Sevastopol on April 10.

If true, the attack might be the most audacious strike yet attempted by Ukraine's coastal-defense forces. A previous Ukrainian strike at the port of Berdyansk damaged one Russian tank landing ship and sank another, resulting in an apparent loss of a shipment of munitions. But Moskva is an entirely different kind of warship: she is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, a Slava-class guided missile cruiser.

If the strike is confirmed, it would suggest that Ukraine's anti-ship missile inventory is capable of penetrating heavy air defenses. Among Soviet-era vessels, Moskva is the hardest of targets, possessing three fire-control radars, two search radars, two heavy antiaircraft cannons, six 30mm CIWS cannons, 20 short-range surface-to-air missiles and 64 long-range air defense missiles. _









Ukraine Claims to Have Struck the Flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet


[Updated: Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti confirmsan explosion aboard the Moskva resulting in...




www.maritime-executive.com

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 13, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> sure, please explain your theories to Talibans.....


I'm looking for the "smackdown" emoji.
Anyone?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Regarding the Ukrainian need for arty -- I heard the news on the way home from work that the US has sent another $800 million in equipment.
> 
> _Following a call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Joe Biden announced Wednesday his administration is authorizing an additional $800 million for weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, including artillery and armored personnel carriers, as it braces to defend itself from an expected new Russian offensive.
> 
> ...




Further to the above:

_The Pentagon said more specifically that the aid package includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 18 Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin missiles, unmanned coastal defense vessels and protective equipment in the event of a chemical or biological weapons attack._









Biden announces $800M in Ukraine aid, including artillery, helicopters


President Biden announced Wednesday that his administration would authorize $800 million in additional security assistance to Ukraine, including artillery, helicopters and armored personnel carrier…




thehill.com

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Gosh, I hope this is true.
> 
> _Multiple Ukrainian sources have claimed that the nation's armed forces have hit the Russian cruiser Moskva in a guided-missile attack in the Black Sea. _



Reuters has a statement (via Interfax, a Russian state owned news agency) from Russia's MoD that the Moskva had a fire at sea and suffered an "ammunition detonation" and was "seriously damaged" although all crew had been evacuated. No word on the cause of the ammunition detonation though....

Ukraine claims two hits with Neptunes on Moskva. The same day, Russia says the ship suffered an ammunition detonation. It doesn't take a genius here to draw some conclusions, even though full confirmation on what actually happened will probably remain in the realm of intelligence professionals.

Either way, a fire and ammunition explosion on a 12,500 tonne ship is bad news. If it survived, it looks like it will be out of the fight for a while.

Another expensive embarrassment for Russia.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 13, 2022)

Also, Wikipedia is funny sometimes (check the 'Status' box)

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## gumbyk (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Gosh, I hope this is true.
> 
> _Multiple Ukrainian sources have claimed that the nation's armed forces have hit the Russian cruiser Moskva in a guided-missile attack in the Black Sea.
> 
> ...





> _[Updated: Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti confirms an explosion aboard the Moskva resulting in "serious damage," but asserts that the cause was a shipboard fire and the detonation of ammunition, not a missile strike.]_



I like the late edit - "You didn't blow us up, we blew ourselves up!"
I don't know which is worse, admitting you got hit by an enemy missile, or admitting your equipment is so bad it's doing the enemy's job for them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Reuters has a statement (via Interfax, a Russian state owned news agency) from Russia's MoD that the Moskva had a fire at sea and suffered an "ammunition detonation" and was "seriously damaged" although all crew had been evacuated. No word on the cause of the ammunition detonation though....
> 
> Ukraine claims two hits with Neptunes on Moskva. The same day, Russia says the suffered an ammunition detonation. It doesn't take a genius here to draw some conclusions, even though full confirmation on what actually happened will probably remain in the realm of intelligence professionals.
> 
> ...

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 13, 2022)

I read something that the US turned around and pulled the Mi-17 copters from the aid package, but really did not say why.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 13, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I read something that the US turned around and pulled the Mi-17 copters from the aid package, but really did not say why.


According to the Pentagon, they still have the green light.

Oddly enough, the only news source headline (that I've seen so far) that claims the U.S. declined the MI-17s, is Fox...









Howitzers, Helicopters, Humvees Headed to Ukraine


An additional $800 million drawdown package of security assistance is on its way to Ukraine, and the efforts to get the newly authorized equipment and supplies to the Ukrainian military will begin



www.defense.gov

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## nuuumannn (Apr 13, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> I don't know which is worse, admitting you got hit by an enemy missile, or admitting your equipment is so bad it's doing the enemy's job for them.



If the Admiral Kuznetsov is anything to go by, the latter is definitely the case of what happens in the Russian navy.

It does appear that the Russian government is painting the picture it wants the world and crucially its own people to see. The Russian people will come to realise the truth when the body bags start piling up at home, although there is evidence that in some cases Russian military units are leaving their war dead behind. The ordinary Russian people are not stupid and many see the war for what it is, but are powerless to speak out against it because the government has banned dissent. Conversely, Putin has a _lot_ of support in Russia. Time will tell.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

My son just sent me this video of a T-64 (125mm main gun) with support elements shooting up a column of BTR APCs. Flags denote nationality, the Ukrainian tank is in the lower left.

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## nuuumannn (Apr 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Oddly enough, the inly news source headline that claims the U.S. declined the MI-17s, is Fox...





vikingBerserker said:


> I read something that the US turned around and pulled the Mi-17 copters from the aid package, but really did not say why.



Well, now we know what channel Viking watches... 

Sorry dude, couldn't resist! A slackarse attempt at humour at your expense!

I'll go sit in the naughty corner...

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## SaparotRob (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Further to the above:
> 
> _The Pentagon said more specifically that the aid package includes 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 200 M113 armored personnel carriers, 18 Howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds, 10 counter-artillery radars, 500 Javelin missiles, unmanned coastal defense vessels and protective equipment in the event of a chemical or biological weapons attack._
> 
> ...


Any more info on the unmanned coastal defense vessels? Le Jeune Ecole meets Skynet?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Any more info on the unmanned coastal defense vessels? Le Jeune Ecole meets Skynet?



Sailors not sent is what I inferred.


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## JDCAVE (Apr 13, 2022)

Another interesting analysis. This by “one of America's premier teachers of grand strategy, John Arquilla, who recently retired as a distinguished professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.” and referenced by this article in the NYT.

Opinion | Free Advice for Putin: ‘Make Peace, You Fool’

jim

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## SaparotRob (Apr 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sailors not sent is what I inferred.


What I inferred would have been cooler.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 13, 2022)

The greatest postage stamp ever!

Ukraine issued a postage stamp commemorating the heroes of Snake Island.

"Russian warship … go f**k yourself!"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What I inferred would have been cooler.



Sharks with lasers vs dolphins with Ma Deuces. Who wins?


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> I'm not familiar with "hot pad".


Hot pad was quick reaction alert status. Two birds airborne within five minutes and two more within ten if needed. Radar horizon was at best five minutes in MiG21 time. Fidel's boys weren't shy about making roostertails in the ocean, nor about probing the defenses. Willie Victor, our resident EC121 SIGINT snooper wasn't shy either, flying just outside SA2 trajectory and illuminating various targets with simulated ASM guidance radars. All cold war relics now.
Hot Pad was a monthly detachment commitment rotated between USN/USMC east coast F4 squadrons. The "hot" birds sat plugged in to start carts with open canopies and umbrellas for shade, while the crews sat nearby in a (weakly) air conditioned shack in full flight gear playing acey-ducey. When the scramble bell rang, the plane captains would energize the start manifolds and the ordies would hop in their trucks and dash down to the arming pad. Whenever Willie Victor took off, the plane captains would fire up their start carts and the flight crews would man up and sit in the shade of their umbrellas, as a scramble would often ensue. From that posture they could be wheels up in under three minutes. Occaisonally they would come home missing an item or two of ordnance.
Typical load out: two tanks, two Zuni pods, two AIM7s, and four AIM9s, though often they would skip the Sparrows. With that drag index they were solidly subsonic, and takeoffs were lengthy.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Sloppy Joe's
> 
> 
> A Key West Tradition
> ...


Back in the day SJ's was open 24/7/365, and there was no way to close it because the arches had no doors, barriers, or grills. You could get a burger and beer at 3AM on Sunday if you wanted it.

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## special ed (Apr 13, 2022)

A USAF detachment sat near the Air Guard hangar at the New Orleans joint reserve base, Belle Chasse. This program began shortly after a twin passenger acft flew in from Cuba to New Orleans International (MSY) long ago and was only discovered as he entered the pattern and called the tower. There was a big sugar producers convention/meeting that week in New Orleans and the Cubans, not being invited, decided to come anyway. Amongst my photos I have a shot of the bad ol' Cuban plane hidden in a hangar. As I recall, the Cubans were not allowed in the meetings, but held until the meetings were over, and then escorted on the flight back out of US airspace.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 13, 2022)

Couple of open source intelligence types reporting the _Moskva _has stopped all transmissions. This could be because all crew has left the ship, or because its sunk to the bottom of the Black Sea.

At least one report claims to have intercepted Russian radio transmissions from rescue craft a few hours ago, stating the ship had rolled onto its port side and was still on fire.

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## BiffF15 (Apr 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Hot pad was quick reaction alert status. Two birds airborne within five minutes and two more within ten if needed. Radar horizon was at best five minutes in MiG21 time. Fidel's boys weren't shy about making roostertails in the ocean, nor about probing the defenses. Willie Victor, our resident EC121 SIGINT snooper wasn't shy either, flying just outside SA2 trajectory and illuminating various targets with simulated ASM guidance radars. All cold war relics now.
> Hot Pad was a monthly detachment commitment rotated between USN/USMC east coast F4 squadrons. The "hot" birds sat plugged in to start carts with open canopies and umbrellas for shade, while the crews sat nearby in a (weakly) air conditioned shack in full flight gear playing acey-ducey. When the scramble bell rang, the plane captains would energize the start manifolds and the ordies would hop in their trucks and dash down to the arming pad. Whenever Willie Victor took off, the plane captains would fire up their start carts and the flight crews would man up and sit in the shade of their umbrellacs, as a scramble would often ensue. From that posture they could be wheels up in under three minutes. Occaisonally they would come home missing an item or two of ordnance.
> Typical load out: two tanks, two Zuni pods, two AIM7s, and four AIM9s, though often they would skip the Sparrows. With that drag index they were solidly subsonic, and takeoffs were lengthy.


My Guard unit sits alert at Homestead. We have sat down at Key West (when HST had runway repairs going on), and the alert shack was at the right end of the ramp when viewed from the Hanger offices.

We could get airborne usually in about 5 minutes. Prior to 9-11 our alert site at HST would scramble almost as much as the other 15 alert sites combined. If I sat alert, I usually got one scramble out of it. The majority were guys coming in from the Bahamas, not talking or squawking at the right place. Usually you had just about five minutes from the Horn until they got it figured out and canceled you. If one guy was rolling when the cancel came in, both went. We wanted to get airborne as it was a free sortie (no brief).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 13, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Couple of open source intelligence types reporting the _Moskva _has stopped all transmissions. This could be because all crew has left the ship, or because its sunk to the bottom of the Black Sea.
> 
> At least one report claims to have intercepted Russian radio transmissions from rescue craft a few hours ago, stating the ship had rolled onto its port side and was still on fire.



There are unconfirmed reports that she is sinking. Apparently the crew has abandoned ship.

Please be true, and way to go Ukraine!

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> *Yes *and far better risking a military confrontation with a Dimitri Medwedew those days ruling Russia and a totally incapable military


You think Medvedev was ruling Russia? He was just the mouthpiece for Putin, who was calling the shots. And where were you then? Were you out of diapers yet?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There are unconfirmed reports that she is sinking. Apparently the crew has abandoned ship.
> 
> Please be true, and way to go Ukraine!



Methinks I have another entry for the "What made you happy today?" thread.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

If this is true, it could affect the final battle for Mariupol, which is very important for both sides in my view. _Moskva_ is and/or was a powerful missile cruiser.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 13, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 13, 2022)

"You sunk my battleship!" lololol

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## J_P_C (Apr 13, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Reuters has a statement (via Interfax, a Russian state owned news agency) from Russia's MoD that the Moskva had a fire at sea and suffered an "ammunition detonation" and was "seriously damaged" although all crew had been evacuated. No word on the cause of the ammunition detonation though....
> 
> Ukraine claims two hits with Neptunes on Moskva. The same day, Russia says the ship suffered an ammunition detonation. It doesn't take a genius here to draw some conclusions, even though full confirmation on what actually happened will probably remain in the realm of intelligence professionals.
> 
> ...


nah - it was just small accident, probably selfignition - it happen in the navy...😁

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## SaparotRob (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sharks with lasers vs dolphins with Ma Deuces. Who wins?


We do! Pass the popcorn.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> nah - it was just small accident, probably selfignition - it happen in the navy...😁


Japanese torpedo boats.

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## ThomasP (Apr 14, 2022)

re the video of the Ukrainian tank shooting up the BTRs.

""

I am sure that most of the video is a simulation. Possibly some of the last 15 sec or so is not, although the overhead close-up of the burning vehicle is fake.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the video of the Ukrainian tank shooting up the BTRs.
> 
> ""
> 
> I am sure that most of the video is a simulation. Possibly some of the last 15 sec or so is not, although the overhead close-up of the burning vehicle is fake.



That's realtime footage, not a simulation.

The annotations (flags) were layered over, after, of course.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> This is tiresome. *They act on behalf of their own government, so their national interests come first. *NATO acts based on the requirements of its own members, so NATO's "politicians" are NOT specifically NATO's, but those of member states acting in accordance with the collective wishes and agendas of member states. Call them politicians, call them ambassadors, diplomats, call them what you will, but NATO itself is a gathering of individuals representing the interests of member states. If a member state's agenda was different to the collective wishes of those at a NATO meeting, the NATO stuff comes second, you can guarantee that.
> 
> Again, Jagdflieger, just because a NATO member state acts, does NOT necessarily mean it is directly or always linked to NATO


Your are stretching your goal-posts now to the indefinite, and are now just reiterating my post-reply in regards to your absurd statement that NATO doesn't have politicians. aka isn't run
by politicians. And even telling me to read up onto NATO.
As for your last statement it wasn't part of my reply at all - so why bring up another assumption of yours, who's content was never expressed by me as you now forward it

Regards
Jagdfllieger


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You think Medvedev was ruling Russia? He was just the mouthpiece for Putin, who was calling the shots. And where were you then? Were you out of diapers yet?


Talk, talk, talk, blah, blah blah, - bring in proof if you want to state something-not just baseless assumptions.
Since you got no idea as to how old I am - keep your insinuating and insulting gossip to your self.

Jagdflieger


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## ThomasP (Apr 14, 2022)

Sorry, I wish the video was real, but it is not.

1. The muzzle flash of the Russian auto cannon is wrong, as are the projectile tracer . . traces?
2. The fire from the knocked out vehicle, in the middle of the video, is made up of a series of repeated images/movements.
3. The panning of the drone camera is fake . . there is no movement of the drone platform itself, subtle change of LOS angle movement that is noticeable in real drone camera footage.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Talk, talk, talk, blah, blah blah, - bring in proof if you want to state something-not just baseless assumptions.


If you were reading and watching what was going on in the world at the time, it was pretty obvious who was pulling the strings. Your take on it smacks of somebody reading a history book years after the fact.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Irrelevant, no one ever claimed there would be one.
> 
> My point simply was you keep throwing around your personal view which in itself has no foundation if anything either. You keep saying others have a lack of understanding on how NATO works, yet you seem to be no different. You post long copy and paste articles or info, highlighting in bold that support your view and glossing over and ignoring other parts that don’t support it.
> 
> ...


No not at all - besides that you are clearly showing that you are biased towards facts. - and even declaring these to be just my personal views.

My question to you was upon you siding with another poster in regards to - supplying weapons is by "international understanding" a declaration of war.
Me then asking you to show me were in the UN statutes it says so. - your answer: _irrelevant, no one ever claimed......_
Another guy states that there are no politicians in NATO and tells me to read up upon NATO - your answer: _highlighting in bold that support your view and glossing over and ignoring other parts that don't support it._
Show me in the text I forwarded were it states anything which I had ignored because it doesn't support my view.
And that isn't even just my "view" - that NATO is run and staffed by politicians is a "Fact". That no UN declaration or statute exists towards conventional weapon deliveries - is a "Fact".

Maybe some people here need to learn about the vast difference between stating a "view" and "facts" before posting general statements?

If reasonable, fact based discussions and posts are not favored in this Forum - kindly let me know.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Glider (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> nah - it was just small accident, probably selfignition - it happen in the navy...😁


Russia is claiming that none of the crew were killed. Lets see, two missile hits and an ammunition explosion on a warship with a crew numbered in the many hundreds and no one was killed. Do they expect anyone to believe that?

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## WARSPITER (Apr 14, 2022)

Glider said:


> Russia is claiming that none of the crew were killed. Lets see, two missile hits and an ammunition explosion on a warship with a crew numbered in the many hundreds and no one was killed. Do they expect anyone to believe that?


Well, no... not really.

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## Denniss (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> View attachment 664742
> 
> 
> The greatest postage stamp ever!
> ...


Now they need to revise that stamp and issue follow-up ones, one with missile strike, another one ablaze and the last one as submarine

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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Your are stretching your goal-posts now to the indefinite, and are now just reiterating my post-reply in regards to your absurd statement that NATO doesn't have politicians. aka isn't run
> by politicians. And even telling me to read up onto NATO.
> As for your last statement it wasn't part of my reply at all - so why bring up another assumption of yours, who's content was never expressed by me as you now forward it
> 
> ...



Once again you are conflating NATO responsibilities with those of its member nations. The civilian head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, is a civil servant who reports to the political leaders of the member nations. However, there are no NATO politicians. In order for there to be such an animal, there would have to be elections for them, just as there are separate elections for national politicians and EU politicians within Europe.

NATO is run by civil servants and military personnel. It acts when the political leaders of the member nations agree that action is required. However, this politicians are elected by their national populations and are acting in their own national interest. Thus NATO staff may recommend a course of action but it may not be acted upon due to lack of political will by some member nations.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe some people here need to learn….


Jag, you’re probably a great guy so don’t take this personally, but I’m putting you on Ignore just to clear out the tangential, off topic clutter from my feed.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Once again you are conflating NATO responsibilities with those of its member nations. The civilian head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, is a civil servant who reports to the political leaders of the member nations. However, there are no NATO politicians. In order for there to be such an animal, there would have to be elections for them, just as there are separate elections for national politicians and EU politicians within Europe.
> 
> NATO is run by civil servants and military personnel. It acts when the political leaders of the member nations agree that action is required. However, this politicians are elected by their national populations and are acting in their own national interest. Thus NATO staff may recommend a course of action but it may not be acted upon due to lack of political will by some member nations.


The issue was about NATO not being run by politicians - aka NATO has no politicians, nothing else.
And that statement is blatantly wrong. Since it is a pure political institution run entirely by politicians.

The NATO military personal has nothing to do with NATO council decisions - but simply to obey and work out the feasibility of military actions if voted upon under the leadership of SACEUR.

According to your logic any cabinet in a European country wouldn't consist of politicians because they haven't been voted upon, but e.g. Germany and many others the composition
of a cabinet is decided upon by the Prime-minister or Chancellor - they are not voted upon. The head of the NATO council (NATO Secretary General is voted upon IIRC every 5 years.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The issue was about NATO not being run by politicians - aka NATO has no politicians, nothing else.
> And that statement is blatantly wrong. Since it is a pure political institution run entirely by politicians.
> The NATO military personal has nothing to do with NATO council decisions - but simply to obey and work out the feasibility of military actions if voted upon.
> 
> ...



But the NAC is composed of representatives appointed by their nations. They are appointed bureaucrats, much like UN Representatives or even national ambassadors. They are not elected politicians.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But the NAC is composed of representatives appointed by their nations. They are appointed bureaucrats, much like UN Representatives or even national ambassadors. They are not elected politicians.


Okay if now you want to bring up that "bureaucrats" appointed by the respective countries political figures are not politicians - okay then we should leave it at that.
Wiki:

*Politician*
A politician is a person active in party politics, or a person holding or seeking office in government. Politicians propose, support and create laws or policies that govern the land and, by extension, its people. Broadly speaking, a "politician" can be anyone who seeks to achieve political power in any bureaucratic institution.
Regards
Jagdflieger


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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> According to your logic any cabinet in a European country wouldn't consist of politicians because they haven't been voted upon, but e.g. Germany and many others the composition
> of a cabinet is decided upon by the Prime-minister or Chancellor - they are not voted upon. The head of the NATO council (NATO Secretary General is voted upon IIRC every 5 years.



No...the cabinet membership may not be elected but in order to be a member of the cabinet, you must have been elected by your local constituents. So, yes, the European Cabinets are composed of politicians. 

The NATO Secretary General is "elected" because to do otherwise would mean one nation imposing its will on the others. Nations nominate candidates for the Secretary General role and, because of the nature of the role, those nominees are typically people with a political background. However, there is no process by which the people of the member nations voice their opinions in who becomes NATO Secretary General, thus he/she is a mutually-agreed political appointee and not an elected politician.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> No...the cabinet membership may not be elected but in order to be a member of the cabinet, you must have been elected by your local constituents. So, yes, the European Cabinets are composed of politicians.
> 
> The NATO Secretary General is "elected" because to do otherwise would mean one nation imposing its will on the others. Nations nominate candidates for the Secretary General role and, because of the nature of the role, those nominees are typically people with a political background. However, there is no process by which the people of the member nations voice their opinions in who becomes NATO Secretary General, thus he/she is a mutually-agreed political appointee and not an elected politician.


Can we please stop discussing about facts? please









NATO Politicians to Svalbard in May


NATO's Parliamentary Assembly's next gathering will take place on Svalbard. 80 to 100 NATO politicians will meet in Longyearbyen between the 8th and 10th of May. At the meeting, they will amongst others discuss the security policy situation.




www.highnorthnews.com





NATO's Parliamentary Assembly's next gathering will take place on Svalbard. 80 to 100 NATO politicians will meet in Longyearbyen between the 8th and 10th of May.
At the meeting, they will amongst others discuss the security policy situation.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly is an international organization for parliamentarians from NATO's member countries.
It was created in 1955 and has its headquarters and secretariat in Brussels.
Øyvind Halleraker from the Conservatives chairs the Norwegian NATO parliamentary delegation, while Sverre Myrli from Labor is Deputy Chair.

The foundation for cooperation between NATO and the NATO PA was strengthened in December 1967 when the North Atlantic Council (NAC) authorised the NATO Secretary General to study how to achieve closer cooperation between the two bodies. As a result of these deliberations, the NATO Secretary General, after consultation with the NAC, implemented several measures to enhance the working relationship between NATO and the Assembly. *These measures included the Secretary General providing a response to all Assembly recommendations and resolutions adopted in its Plenary Sessions.*

Now you might also have a better understanding as to who actually runs NATO, who includes their own politicians or bureaucrats if you prefer.






NATO Permanent Representatives


Each member nation is represented on the North Atlantic Council by an Ambassador or Permanent Representative supported by a national delegation composed of advisers and officials who represent their country on different NATO committees.




www.nato.int




Here you can check the vitae of all NATO permanent representatives. 
If you want to draw a line of distinction between a high ranking bureaucrat working in a bureaucratic institution that follows the instructions of his government and a politician
- I will leave that up to you.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay if now you want to bring up that "bureaucrats" appointed by the respective countries political figures are not politicians - okay then we should leave it at that.
> Wiki:
> 
> *Politician*
> ...



Or another definition: Politician - a person who is professionally involved in politics, especially as a holder of or a candidate for an elected office.

It is possible to be in a political role (e.g. an ambassador) without being a politician. The key words for me are "an elected office" which implies becoming a representative for the electorate...i.e. the voters. That's not the case for the NATO Secretary General because the only "voters" are the nations themselves, and it's a workaround to ensure all member nations get a voice in who runs the NATO organization.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No not at all - besides that you are clearly showing that you are biased towards facts. - and even declaring these to be just my personal views.
> 
> My question to you was upon you siding with another poster in regards to - supplying weapons is by "international understanding" a declaration of war.
> Me then asking you to show me were in the UN statutes it says so. - your answer: _irrelevant, no one ever claimed......_
> ...



As a moderator, I will recuse myself from this discussion. I do not feel I can answer in a fitting manner.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Can we please stop discussing about facts? please



So you'd rather keep discussing opinions?





Jagdflieger said:


> NATO Politicians to Svalbard in May
> 
> 
> NATO's Parliamentary Assembly's next gathering will take place on Svalbard. 80 to 100 NATO politicians will meet in Longyearbyen between the 8th and 10th of May. At the meeting, they will amongst others discuss the security policy situation.
> ...



The NATO Parliamentary Assembly is a gathering of political representatives from the member nations. They are elected members of the member nation parliament and they are appointees to the NATO Assembly. They are NOT "NATO POLITICIANS".

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 14, 2022)

Folks - I want to remind all of the ground rules of this thread;

*This event is too big of a deal to not discuss. We are literally witnessing an event that was decades in the making and has huge global ramifications.

This thread will remain open. Here are the ground rules…

1. All discussion must pertain to the invasion of Ukraine.

2. No political BS. By political BS I mean NO insulting, ignorant, hate filled Left vs. Right, Liberal vs. Conservative, Trump vs. Biden BS. We don't need that stuff here on our forum. Everyone has their own beliefs and opinions, but we are friends and family. Lets not ruin that. I've lost too many friends already because of it.

This is not up for debate, and the rule will be enforced.*

I don't want to see this thread go into the abyss. Please start to get this on track!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

What can the West do to help prevent the fall of Mariupol?









Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine


Ukraine has staged a string of successful counterattacks in southern Ukraine around the city of Kherson.



www.nytimes.com













Ukraine war: Mass surrender of troops in Mariupol, says Russia


Russia says more than 1,000 marines in the besieged port have surrendered - but Ukraine denies this.



www.bbc.com





The city is surrounded, so weapons and reinforcements cannot easily (or at all) arrive overland. Once the city falls, the Russians will free up forces to invade more of eastern Ukraine.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 14, 2022)

I'm interested to know what is actually going to be left for them to take. In other words, what exactly is the gain in destroying a city
when it is more likely to galvanise opposition to any further action. 

Somebody didn't think any of this through.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> nah - it was just small accident, probably selfignition - it happen in the navy...😁



The _Moskva_ before and after:

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What can the West do to help prevent the fall of Mariupol?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't wait for Putin to call the next shot - threaten him via NATO and the UN with a no-fly zone and UN troops involvment if hostilities are not ceased immediately in regards to attacking an internationally recognized state. Then see what bluff he will call out.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 14, 2022)

They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 14, 2022)

Just start redeploying NATO forces all over the place. Can NATO (or an individual member nation) send anything into the Black Sea? I know that would involve Turkey. Just move stuff around to keep Putler busy responding to possible multiple threat vectors. RF forces seem to have difficulties moving men and material around.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The _Moskva_ before and after:
> 
> View attachment 664775


Which one was the before ?

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## JDCAVE (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.


That’s bottom paint, exposed as the bow rises above the water.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.


Here's a Slava class cruiser in drydock.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I'm interested to know what is actually going to be left for them to take. In other words, what exactly is the gain in destroying a city


There's a large Ukrainian army and militia garrison there. And this war has demonstrated that every Ukrainian must be considered a potential partisan. By eliminating the city and its fighting potential the Russians can redeploy their army to fight elsewhere. That's why the Ukrainians are trying to hold the city, to deny the Russians the ability to concentrate their forces elsewhere.

This explains why civilians are targeted, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/opinion/putin-ukraine-war-strategy.html

_“But it's their human sensors — the informal Ukrainian observer corps — that are devastating the Russians. Grandmas with iPhones can trump satellites. "The Ukrainian observer corps is made up of babushkas and kids and anyone else who has got a smartphone," he said. "And they've been calling in the locations of where the Russian units are and where they're moving. And so the Ukrainian forces have this big edge in finding the Russians in this big country, and that is giving their small units with smart weapons" real-time, actionable intelligence.”_

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.



Isn’t the other one a cruise ship that burned and sank a while back? I thought I read that, but I could be wrong.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Isn’t the other one a cruise ship that burned and sank a while back? I thought I read that, but I could be wrong.


Damn it you're right! Look what I found on a quick Google image search.









Years of misplaced priorities inside Iran led to embarrassing military mishaps


A series of recent military mishaps makes it clear that Iran has failed to invest in its regular armed forces, even as it heavily bankrolls the IRGC amid an economic crisis.



diyaruna.com







Thumpalumpacus said:


> The _Moskva_ before and after:


We need to be careful about spreading misinformation about the war. A sober sniff test is always best. 

Google Lens allows us to search the web for any image to make sure what is claimed is accurate, Google Lens - Search What You See

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)

And there you have it. An example of misinformation on the internet. (Not saying the Moskva was not sunk, just that the burning ship is not the Moskva).

The burning ship was an Iranian vessel.









Iran Investigates Fire That Sank One of Its Largest Navy Ships


The sinking of the Kharg is the latest blow to the country’s vital infrastructure and military assets.




www.wsj.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)

So much of this reeks of the Nazis…

Philosopher known as 'Putin's brain' says Russia needs to escalate Ukraine war


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

Zelensky's appeal and wish list yesterday in English.

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## J_P_C (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.


agree its fake - background does not match as well, there is storm on black sea since last two days

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## swampyankee (Apr 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What can the West do to help prevent the fall of Mariupol?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Without actually committing forces, which would likely be considered a casus belli by Putin (or just about any country's government in a vaguely similar situation, such as Japan in China in the 1930s or the US in Mexico in the 1840s), sending military and non-military supplies, providi intelligence, and sanctioning Russia and Belarus is about the limit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Don't wait for Putin to call the next shot - threaten him via NATO and the UN with a no-fly zone and UN troops involvment if hostilities are not ceased immediately in regards to attacking an internationally recognized state. Then see what bluff he will call out.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger



Agreed: the time has come for a firmer stand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They look like different ships. The red almost goes up the entire way in the sinking ship.



That's what's below the waterline. In a 12,000 ton cruiser, I'd expect the draught to be deep.

I enlarged the photos before posting and it looks like the after tower is present in the burning. I don't see the beam-mounted ASMs but I assume they were jettisoned once s**t started cooking. The forecastle step-up is visible.

ETA: I stand corrected. My apologies for it.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The _Moskva_ before and after:
> 
> View attachment 664775


'Tis but a scratch!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I'm interested to know what is actually going to be left for them to take. In other words, what exactly is the gain in destroying a city
> when it is more likely to galvanise opposition to any further action.
> 
> Somebody didn't think any of this through.



I think the aim is to link up the Donbas and Crimea to facilitate further operations.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

<edited due to corrections noted above>


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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

Quick update on the Moskva. I do wish they'd release an image of the ship so we can see the extent of the damage


_The US has been giving its reaction to Ukrainian claims that it carried out a missile strike on the Russian flagship the Moskva last night, causing significant damage.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby has told CNN that "there was an explosion" on the warship but that the US could not yet say whether the ship was hit by a missile.

Russia says its warship remains afloat after ammunition on board caught fire, while Ukraine says the vessel was hit by its anti-ship missiles.

"We're not exactly sure what happened here. We do assess that there was an explosion - at least one explosion on this cruiser - a fairly major one at that, that has caused extensive damage to the ship," Kirby told CNN.

Kirby said the damaged Russian warship was afloat and "making her own way across the Black Sea" - "probably" for repairs at Sevastopol in Crimea._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Isn’t the other one a cruise ship that burned and sank a while back? I thought I read that, but I could be wrong.





Admiral Beez said:


> Damn it you're right! Look what I found on a quick Google image search.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I stand corrected. Thank you, gentlemen.

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## Dimlee (Apr 14, 2022)

"Go f yourself".
Done.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 14, 2022)

Even more apt if she was indeed crippled by an accidental onboard fire.

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## Dimlee (Apr 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There's a large Ukrainian army and militia garrison there.


Just to be precise: Marines, National Guard (Azov) and small units of border guards and Navy and auxiliaries.
Probably some "militia" as well. In Ukraine, this is a Territorial Defence (TrO, Territorialna Oborona), but Mariupol TrO was not fully organised before the invasion.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Even more apt if she was indeed crippled by an accidental onboard fire.



As noted above, if your own weapons are doing the enemy's job for them, is that really a plus?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> View attachment 664742
> 
> 
> The greatest postage stamp ever!
> ...


Now they need to add a Bayraktar stamp to the collection! 😃

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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2022)

Meanwhile, in Ukraine...









Farmer's Brigade Continues to Win the Hearts and Minds of Russian Armor


After several weeks of radio silence, the elite 1st Farmer's Brigade of Ukraine has once again dropped a video showing that they're still winning the hearts and minds of Russian armor.




funker530.com

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 14, 2022)

Russia’s Moskva cruiser sinks following Ukrainian claim of missile strike


Russia initially denied reports that warship sank, then later claimed it went down in stormy seas while being towed to port




www.theguardian.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 14, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sailors not sent is what I inferred.


I just watched a new YT vid on Ed Nash's Military Matters channel. Unmanned or autonomous, "Ahoy Skynet". The Ukrainians do seem to have a flair for drones.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Russia’s Moskva cruiser sinks following Ukrainian claim of missile strike
> 
> 
> Russia initially denied reports that warship sank, then later claimed it went down in stormy seas while being towed to port
> ...



Well, they were at least partially truthful. The fires have been extinguished.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

_After saying initially the warship was afloat, late on Thursday Russian state media broke the news that the Moskva had been lost.

"While being towed ... towards the destined port, the vessel lost its balance due to damage sustained in the hull as fire broke out after ammunition exploded. Given the choppy seas, the vessel sank," state news agency Tass quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying._









Russian warship: Moskva sinks in Black Sea


The warship sank while being towed a day after Ukraine claimed to have hit it with a missile.



www.bbc.com





Probably the largest warship lost in combat since 1945. If the Russians are admitting it, I'll assume it's true.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 14, 2022)

Yep at 12,000 tons (per wiki) she was bigger that 9500-ton General Belgrano (former USS Phoenix). I'm not aware of any other larger combat losses. 

(CT's about USS Scorpion don't count. )

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## buffnut453 (Apr 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Yep at 12,000 tons (per wiki) she was bigger that 9500-ton General Belgrano (former USS Phoenix). I'm not aware of any other larger combat losses.
> 
> (CT's about USS Scorpion don't count. )



We’ll….hang on a minute. The 9500 ton displacement for Belgrano was the empty figure. Fully loaded was 12,242tons. Now, Moskva was 3ft longer and 7ft wider than Belgrano.

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## J_P_C (Apr 14, 2022)

Revell already issued update for their kit

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> We’ll….hang on a minute. The 9500 ton displacement for Belgrano was the empty figure. Fully loaded was 12,242tons. Now, Moskva was 3ft longer and 7ft wider than Belgrano.



In any event, it's gotta hurt losing a ship named after the capital of your country.

Good, I say. Is there a ship named _Rossiya_? Sink that, too.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 14, 2022)

LMAO!

J_P_C, that's brilliant!!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

Here's hoping we get a "scratch one flattop cruiser" transmission from the Ukes.

This will change how the assault on Mariupol goes, I think.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> We’ll….hang on a minute. The 9500 ton displacement for Belgrano was the empty figure. Fully loaded was 12,242tons. Now, Moskva was 3ft longer and 7ft wider than Belgrano.



_Moskva_ loads out at 12,500 tons according to Wiki (yeah, I know.)

Record or not, I like it. Go f**k yourself, indeed.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 664794
> 
> Revell already issued update for their kit


Here's the completed kit:

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 664794
> 
> Revell already issued update for their kit


I would give you bacon as well! Brilliant! I'm stealing this!!!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here's hoping we get a "scratch one flattop cruiser" transmission from the Ukes.
> 
> This will change how the assault on Mariupol goes, I think.


I wish the Ukies had a couple of Kilos. They’d make a right mess of the Russians.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wish the Ukies had a couple of Kilos. They’d make a right mess of the Russians.



One thing we've seen in this war is that the Ukrainians make the most of what they have. That bespeaks fighting spirit, _I'll throw a hammer at your ass_ sort of spirit.

All the more reason to keep a continual flow of arms and support -- fuel, food, ammo -- to help, even if concerns about WWIII prevent direct involvement from the West.

Of course I'd like to be on an active flightline helping out, but that's not in the cards.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> All the more reason to keep a continual flow of arms and support -- fuel, food, ammo -- to help, even if concerns about WWIII prevent direct involvement from the West.


It’s the poor chaps surrounded and besieged in in Mariupol that need weapons and reinforcements. Some sort of parachute drop or delivery from the sea?









Ukrainian troops in Mariupol are taking ammo off Russian soldiers and smuggling in weapons to hold out against the assault


There has been "continuous heavy shelling" in the port city since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.




news.yahoo.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 14, 2022)

One more

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 14, 2022)

The Moskva crew joined the navy to see the world, but what did they see? They saw the sea.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s the poor chaps surrounded and besieged in in Mariupol that need weapons and reinforcements. Some sort of parachute drop or delivery from the sea?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Delivery from sea will need Turkish approval; that's uncertain.

Whose airplanes would do the airdrops in your scenario? Do the Ukrainians have the lift-capacity?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Delivery from sea will need Turkish approval; that's uncertain.
> 
> Whose airplanes would do the airdrops in your scenario? Do the Ukrainians have the lift-capacity?


According to Artical 19 of the Montreaux Convention, non-warring (neutral nation) ships are allowed passage.

So any ship (including warship), that does not belong to a warring nation in the region, is allowed passage.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 14, 2022)

Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato


Lithuania plays down threat, claiming Russians already have such weapons in Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad




www.theguardian.com

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## WARSPITER (Apr 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 664794
> 
> Revell already issued update for their kit


That's actually just a rerelease of the Bismark 1942 kit. Some of these companies are getting lazy.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> According to Artical 19 of the Montreaux Convention, non-warring (neutral nation) ships are allowed passage.
> 
> So any ship (including warship), that does not belong to a warring nation in the region, is allowed passage.


That could be very handy.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 14, 2022)

Got this one from Jan (Lucky 13)

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 14, 2022)

Warship sunk by a pair of 1-ton missiles from Ukrainian commanders


The pride of Russia's fearsome Black Sea fleet, the huge Moskva warship, was taken out yesterday in one of the most cunning operations of the war. Commanders destroyed it using drones and missiles.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> According to Artical 19 of the Montreaux Convention, non-warring (neutral nation) ships are allowed passage.
> 
> So any ship (including warship), that does not belong to a warring nation in the region, is allowed passage.



Doing a bit more reading on it, thanks for the kick in the ass.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Doing a bit more reading on it, thanks for the kick in the ass.


The fine print on these treaties/conventions can make a person's eyes glaze over!

The beauty of Artical 19, is that by law, any relief ship can bring supplies, humanitatian or "other" aid directly to the Ukraine via the Black Sea without getting Putler's panties in a wad.

Be it EU, UN or NATO ships - they have legal rights under international law, to not only transit into the Black Sea, but approach any port of the Ukraine.
Any move by Russia would be considered an act of war upon any ship doing so.

So technically, a US carrier can legally and legitimately go into a Ukrainian port and Putin can't touch it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The fine print on these treaties/conventions can make a person's eyes glaze over!



Doing some reading on Art 19, so much referred to Arts 10-18 and yeah, you know I had to try reading that. I'm about ready for a cup of coffee.


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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

That is interesting. A US nuclear carrier and it's attendant ships could then go to a Ukrainian port to offer humanitarian aid in the form
of electricity generation, water supply (desalination), and emergency medical / airlift services without contravening any international
laws. One way to get in there without a no fly zone.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> That is interesting. A US nuclear carrier and it's attendant ships could then go to a Ukrainian port to offer humanitarian aid in the form
> of electricity generation, water supply (desalination), and emergency medical / airlift services without contravening any international
> laws. One way to get in there without a no fly zone.



I'm pretty sure the Convention bars such warships as large.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm pretty sure the Convention bars such warships as large.


Nope, a British Frigate, Japanese Carrier or U.S. destroyer can transit the straights without issue.
They are not involved in the war.

Only Russian and Ukrainian warships are restricted under the convention, as they are at war and only their ships, as registered as being home-ported in the Black Sea are allowed passage.
Any Russian warship home-ported in the Baltic, Pacific or Syria cannot pass.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

That's probably correct but it depends on what Turkey sees as reasonable too. Not that I think it would happen as the US navy wouldn't be keen
on the idea.

I didn't know about the clause being there though as I thought it just meant that Turkey was denying access either way to all shipping. This certainly
leaves room for at least food and medical aid to get to Ukraine in larger amounts.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

Article 19 of the Montreaux Convention regulates the passage of the Dardanelles & Bosporus straits, how is this supposed to help the beleaguered Ukrainian troops in Mariupol?

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Article 19 of the Montreaux Convention regulates the passage of the Dardanelles straits, how is this supposed to help the beleaguered Ukrainian troops in Mariupol?
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


And the Bosphorus.

The conversation is about Artical 19 and who can come and go.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> That's probably correct but it depends on what Turkey sees as reasonable too. Not that I think it would happen as the US navy wouldn't be keen
> on the idea.
> 
> I didn't know about the clause being there though as I thought it just meant that Turkey was denying access either way to all shipping. This certainly
> leaves room for at least food and medical aid to get to Ukraine in larger amounts.


It's not what Turkey deems, as the convention defines who/what can pass.

For example, if Georgia decided to get involved in the fray, then their warships would fall onto the list of restricted warships, along with Ukraine and Russian warships, as Georgian warships are based in the Black Sea.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And the Bosphorus.
> 
> The conversation is about Artical 19 and who can come and go.


I know, that is also what I said - but how is this supposed to help those beleaguered Ukrainians in Mariupol?

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

I understand that. In the example you give that would mean Georgian warships would not be allowed through the Bosporus to the 
Med.

What I didn't know was that non participants are allowed through as long as they fit the protocols for transit. I was under under the impression
that closed meant closed full stop until you posted re article 19.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I know, that is also what I said - but how is this supposed to help those beleaguered Ukrainians in Mariupol?
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


You are interesting.

I post about Artical 19 of the Montreaux Convention and you go on about Maripol.

Ok, so I'll bite - under international maritime law, ANY ship (freighter, cargo or neutral warship) has the right, legally, to approach and dock at ANY Ukrainian port unmolested, as the Ukraine is a sovereign, internationally recognized nation, and offload anything they happen to be transporting.

Russia cannot object, interfere or attack as it would be seen as an act of aggression with consequences.

How it can help those in Maripol, I cannot say, since I don't own a shipping company and I am not a head of state (lucky for Putler) so I cannot directly come to Ukraine's aid.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You are interesting.
> 
> I post about Artical 19 of the Montreaux Convention and you go on about Maripol.
> 
> ...


I saw in the thread the question as to what can be done to support the Ukrainians in Mariupol. (which I believe is of utmost importance in order to prevent the Russians from cutting off the Ukrainians) Then one chap brought in Airdrop supplies. next was, do the Ukrainians have such aircraft's
Then the issue of Article 19 came in - highlighting the possibility of ships being able to enter the Black-sea. But Mariupol isn't situated at the Black-Sea.

As for the difference of an e.g. USN vessel entering Ukrainian territory (harbor) or a C-5 loaded with goodies landing on Ukrainian territory - I will leave that up to you guys to
discuss.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

It isn't necessarily a matter of getting ships direct to Mariupol but one of getting literal shiploads of supplies to Ukraine rather than having to use only
land routes. 

Even to get from the Med to Mariupol you have to go through the Bosporous and then traverse the Black Sea to get to the Sea of Azov. This makes
access under article 19 very important just as any losses of Russian vessels in that area are very important.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It isn't necessarily a matter of getting ships direct to Mariupol but one of getting literal shiploads of supplies to Ukraine rather than having to use only
> land routes.
> 
> Even to get from the Med to Mariupol you have to go through the Bosporous and then traverse the Black Sea to get to the Sea of Azov. This makes
> access under article 19 very important just as any losses of Russian vessels in that area are very important.


Who controls the Sea of Azov - respectively the Kerch strait? Turkey or Russia?
And holding Mariupol is off utmost strategic value - since it's capture would provide the Russians a continued offense towards establishing a land bridge towards the Crimea.

Shipping goods to Ukraine via Sea or land isn't the question to me - both routes have never been obstructed by Russia.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Who controls the Sea of Azov - respectively the Kerch strait? Turkey or Russia?
> And holding Mariupol is off utmost strategic value - since it's capture would provide the Russians a continued offense towards establishing a land bridge towards the Crimea.
> 
> Shipping goods to Ukraine via Sea or land isn't the question to me - both routes have never been obstructed by Russia.
> ...


As I already stated, the point is to be able to get supplies to Ukraine rather than direct to Mariupol. To do this you need to be able to gain access
through the Bosporous. The ability of Ukraine to continue to fight depends on being supplied.

That is the strategic necessity. There is no quick answer to this war and postulating the sending/not sending of anything direct to Mariupol is irrelevant
to the overall picture.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 15, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Even to get from the Med to Mariupol you have to go through the Bosporous and then traverse the Black Sea to get to the Sea of Azov.





Jagdflieger said:


> Who controls the Sea of Azov - respectively the Kerch strait? Turkey or Russia?


Looking at the map, I don't think any ship could reach Mariupol without violating what Putard considers Russian territorial waters. In fact I think he considers the Sea of Azov AND the entire Black Sea to be Russian Lakes. Sphere of influence, you know? If a US carrier task force entered the Black Sea acting independently of NATO, I'm sure he would feel entitled to sink it. That's rather a small "telephone booth" for a blue water fleet to be confined in.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Looking at the map, I don't think any ship could reach Mariupol without violating what Putard considers Russian territorial waters. In fact I think he considers the Sea of Azov AND the entire Black Sea to be Russian Lakes. Sphere of influence, you know? If a US carrier task force entered the Black Sea acting independently of NATO, I'm sure he would feel entitled to sink it. That's rather a small "telephone booth" for a blue water fleet to be confined in.


It's not about what he maybe considers. International maritime-law regulates the boundaries. As such the entire coastline of Western Turkey right up to Bulgaria, then Romania and last not least the Ukraine with its port at Odessa isn't Russian territory. But the access to the Azov Sea via the Kerch-Straits is 100% Russian controlled since his annexation of the Crimea. That
is one of the main reasons why he annexed Crimea - total control of the Azov Sea.

If Turkey allows passage or not to Russian military ships is independent of any freighter traveling to e.g. Romania or Odessa/Ukraine. So far I haven't hear that Putin attacked or threatened to attack merchant-vessels traveling that route. Especially not since all three, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are NATO members.
In case Putin would block access to Odessa - any NATO warship and merchantvessel is free to enter a Romanian port - and from there transport anything into neighboring Ukraine.

Turkey effectively blocked Russian navy ships from traveling through the Bosporus from the Black-Sea into the Aegean Sea and vice versa. Anything else hasn't changed.
However presently this all does not help the defenders at Mariupol or all the Ukrainian positions along the northern coast of the Azov Sea.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Nope, a British Frigate, Japanese Carrier or U.S. destroyer can transit the straights without issue.
> They are not involved in the war.
> 
> Only Russian and Ukrainian warships are restricted under the convention, as they are at war and only their ships, as registered as being home-ported in the Black Sea are allowed passage.
> Any Russian warship home-ported in the Baltic, Pacific or Syria cannot pass.



_ARTICLE 14

The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces which may be in course of transit through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons, except in the cases provided for in Article 11 and in Annex III to the present Convention. The forces specified in the preceding paragraph shall not, however, comprise more than nine vessels._



https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/formidable/18/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-Regime-of-the-Straits.pdf



This limit applies to all non-Black Sea powers.

Note that 

 WARSPITER
specifically mentioned an American nuclear carrier, which ain't going to meet that limit, hence my caveat "that big".

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## J_P_C (Apr 15, 2022)

probably only 14 sailors survived Moskva sunk - for now 496 men are reported missing....

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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s the poor chaps surrounded and besieged in in Mariupol that need weapons and reinforcements. Some sort of parachute drop or delivery from the sea?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There were several helicopter nights raids, supplies in, wounded out. One or two choppers were lost, with only two survivors (POW).

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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably only 14 sailors survived Moskva sunk - for now 496 men are reported missing....


Ouch. I thought there were reports of ~50 being rescued by Turkey?


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Be it EU, UN or NATO ships - they have legal rights under international law, to not only transit into the Black Sea, but approach any port of the Ukraine.


Turkey has banned all warships from all nations from entering the Black Sea.

Turkey warns all countries to not let warships go through the Turkish Straits


https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_262143bbff8aaef6ff22b9f1b5fdf914



So, no, NATO or likeminded warships cannot sail to Mariupol. An UN or Red Cross mission could sail a civilian ship to Mariupol to rescue civilians, but it wouldn‘t bring weapons or reinforcements.

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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably only 14 sailors survived Moskva sunk - for now 496 men are reported missing....


I tried to obtain the information about surviving crew from Sevastopol. Rumours about 54 were saved by the Turkish vessel and an unspecified number by the Russian Navy. Very vague. 
8 years earlier, before the occupation, such a major incident would be discussed in many web forums and chats, in cafes, on the benches of Primorsky Boulevard... 
Now locals are just afraid to speak. And most of those web forums ceased to exist. Back in the USSR, my home town.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


>



Here‘s four for sale 1984 MiG 29UB in Utah for Sale-$4,500,000 And two more, 1986 MiG 29UB in Illinois for Sale-$3,500,000, though not sure if these civilian aircraft will help.









An American who owns a MiG-29 isn't sure the fighter jets would help Ukraine much


A billionaire astronaut who helped train U.S. fighter pilots loves his high-performance Soviet jet but thinks it's no match for Russia's newer planes.




www.nbcnews.com





The US needs to send all its own MiGs now, and offer Peru a security guarantee in exchange for their entire MiG fleet. We’ll park a CVN off your coast if you need us to. In the immediate, the Polish MiGs must go today.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _ARTICLE 14
> 
> The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces which may be in course of transit through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons, except in the cases provided for in Article 11 and in Annex III to the present Convention. The forces specified in the preceding paragraph shall not, however, comprise more than nine vessels._
> 
> ...


Correct

As for merchant vessels (as some suggested that supplies need to be transported to Ukraine via ship) - not possible for Mariupol.
_ARTICLE 4
In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits subject to the provisions._

However as in any treaty or convention, there is always a loop hole. see:
_ARTICLE 21
Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.
Meaning that NATO could send as much warship tonnage as to whatever Turkey agrees._

But anyway nothing changes the possibility of merchant ships transporting goods to Ukraine - or e.g. Romania

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## WARSPITER (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _ARTICLE 14
> 
> The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces which may be in course of transit through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons, except in the cases provided for in Article 11 and in Annex III to the present Convention. The forces specified in the preceding paragraph shall not, however, comprise more than nine vessels._
> 
> ...


Yes I was hoping rather than being realistic.

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## J_P_C (Apr 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I tried to obtain the information about surviving crew from Sevastopol. Rumours about 54 were saved by the Turkish vessel and an unspecified number by the Russian Navy. Very vague.
> 8 years earlier, before the occupation, such a major incident would be discussed in many web forums and chats, in cafes, on the benches of Primorsky Boulevard...
> Now locals are just afraid to speak. And most of those web forums ceased to exist. Back in the USSR, my home town.


russians confirmed final number - 58 survived and 452 presumed dead including ship captain

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> russians confirmed final number - 58 survived and 452 presumed dead including ship captain


She was the Black Sea flagship, so an Admiral have gone down as well.

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## J_P_C (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> She was the Black Sea flagship, so an Admiral have gone down as well.


no words about this so far - could be commander of the fleet followed example of the president and is performing his duties from bunker in Sevastopol

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

What’s the status of her sister ship, now docked in Ukraine? 









Ukrainian cruiser Ukraina - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Apr 15, 2022)

Nice!

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## buffnut453 (Apr 15, 2022)

So Russia first claims that they got the entire crew off the Moskva....then somehow they got the fire under control (without the crew)....then they put all the crew back onboard....and then the ship sinks losing all hands except 58 survivors. Am I tracking that correctly?

To add further evidence that Russia's account is nonsense, the Kremlin claimed that Moskva was not hit by Ukrainian missiles but instead suffered a fire. However, overnight, Russia attacked a Ukrainian missile facility in Kyiv that was responsible for cruise missiles and, crucially, anti-ship missiles:
_
The Russian defence ministry says it has carried out missile strikes targeting Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, warning that attacks like this will intensify in retaliation for what it called Ukrainian "terror attacks" or "acts of sabotage" in Russia.

Russia says its sea-based cruise missiles struck a factory in the city overnight, which produces air-defence systems and anti-ship missiles.

As a result, the plant's "workshops for the production and repair of long-range and medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as anti-ship missiles, were destroyed", the ministry added in a statement published on its Telegram channel.

On Thursday, Russia accused Ukraine of sending helicopters across the border to attack several Russian towns.

The BBC is unable to verify these claims from Moscow._


Yeah...the whole "fire onboard" story is ENTIRELY plausible...NOT!!!!

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is also mocking the Russian Navy....made me LOL!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2022)

I love how Russia thinks its ok to invade another country but when said country defends itself it is “terror attacks.” 

They will retaliate against Ukraine defending itself.  Putler and his pathetic brainwashed cronies are such a joke. Hitler and the Nazi’s would be proud. Göbbels certainly approves.

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## swampyankee (Apr 15, 2022)

Either the _Moskva_ was lost because of spontaneous fires (hah!) or she was hit by a missile. Were I the Russians, I'd find the former worse than a combat loss. Some other ship might spontaneously burst into flames anywhere in the world.

---

I also saw this on a BBC news feed: "A furious ex-MP, Vladimir Bortko, said the sinking of the Moskva was grounds for war": Russian warship: Moskva sinks in Black Sea. 
Apparently, he hasn't noticed that invading a country, which Russia is doing to Ukraine, _is_ war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _On Thursday, Russia accused Ukraine of sending helicopters across the border to attack several Russian towns._



Again with that "accused" verbiage. It's war, Cupcake. You're _supposed_ to be attacked.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Either the _Moskva_ was lost because of spontaneous fires (hah!) or she was hit by a missile. Were I the Russians, I'd find the former worse than a combat loss. Some other ship might spontaneously burst into flames anywhere in the world.
> 
> ---
> 
> ...



The Russians are a joke. They really are. I know its a propaganda game, but damn they sound ridiculously stupid.

How can anyone take them seriously anymore?

It reminds me of the Iraqi Minister of Media and Foreign Affairs Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf during the Iraq war:

_“There are no bombs falling on Baghdad. It is all American lies!”_

*Explosions heard in background. Smoke rising in the distance.

_“There are no American troops in Baghdad! We have beaten back the infidel invaders and defeated them on the battlefield.”_

*Meanwhile an American M1 Abrams tank rolls by in the background and destroys a T-72.

Did all these guys graduate from the Joseph Göbbels school of talking to the media. As long as they are consulting with Tucker I guess…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Again with that "accused" verbiage. It's war, Cupcake. You're _supposed_ to be attacked.



How dare the Ukrainians defend themselves! What are they thinking???

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How dare the Ukrainians defend themselves! What are they thinking???



I know, right?

On the other hand, Russian tears make for sweet lemonade.

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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Ouch. I thought there were reports of ~50 being rescued by Turkey?


Be it 15 or 50 survivors, it all points to a sudden and catastrophic explosion, which can only have come from a missile strike.

The Russian version of a fire, which set of a magazine would have taken time to develop, and time would have enabled more of the crew to escape. 

It has really touched a nerve with Putin supporters now saying that this incident proves that Russia is now fighting NATO in practical terms if not the formal organisation. This is of course rubbish and the missiles used in the attack were designed and built by Ukraine. The amount of heavy equipment given to the Ukraine forces has been minimal compared to the resources in the fighting and what has been given is often older out of date equipment such as the M113 APC which have just been promised.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> It has really touched a nerve with Putin supporters now saying that this incident proves that Russia is now fighting NATO in practical terms if not the formal organisation.



When in fact what this really proves is that there's no aspect of modern combat that the Russians cannot thoroughly screw up.

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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Russians are a joke. They really are. I know its a propaganda game, but damn they sound ridiculously stupid.
> 
> How can anyone take them seriously anymore?
> 
> ...


I'm always reminded of the conversation that took place in early 1941 in Berlin before Germany attacked Russia. The Russian ambassador and Russian Minister were in Berlin and there was an air raid in progress. The Russian minister turned to the German politician and asked why if everything was going so well, why were they in the bomb shelter and not the British?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> It has really touched a nerve with Putin supporters now saying that this incident proves that Russia is now fighting NATO in practical terms if not the formal organisation.


They don't seem to understand that *if* Russia were actually fighting NATO, they would know immediately without question.

This all spins back to the schoolyard bully crying when it's victim stands up to him and gives him a black eye.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 15, 2022)

I was wondering how a magazine explosion on a warship could have resulted in nobody getting hurt. Regardless, if the Captain is still alive, I see a "heart attack" in his future.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I was wondering how a magazine explosion on a warship could have resulted in nobody getting hurt. Regardless, if the Captain is still alive, I see a "heart attack" in his future.



The Guardian is reporting that the Ukrainians claim the captain of the ship was killed in her sinking.

And yeah, with 90% of the crew dead, whatever sank the ship did so very quickly.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

ETA: I found this pic of the ship under tow, before it sank:

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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ETA: I found this pic of the ship under tow, before it sank:
> 
> View attachment 664881


Clearly a fake picture. In reality the farmer wouldn't have let it sink

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> Clearly a fake picture. In reality the farmer wouldn't have let it sink

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## GTX (Apr 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Apr 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Apr 15, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

_Russia has sent a formal letter to the U.S. warning that shipments of sensitive weapons from the United States and NATO were exacerbating tensions in Ukraine and could lead to "unpredictable consequences," The Washington Post reported.

The letter, which was viewed by [t]he Post, added that the U.S. has flouted the rules governing the transfer of weapons to conflict zones.

According to the letter dated Tuesday, Russia accused NATO of impeding early peace negotiation with Ukraine "in order to continue the bloodshed."

The State Department declined to confirm any private diplomatic correspondence. _









Russia sends formal letter warning US to stop arming Ukraine: report


Russia has sent a formal letter to the U.S. warning that shipments of sensitive weapons from the United States and NATO were exacerbating tensions in Ukraine and could lead to “unpredictable …




thehill.com





Stop 'em ... if you can.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 15, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

_
The Russian missile cruiser that was damaged in a fire on Thursday was hit and ultimately sunk by Ukrainian missile strikes, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed on Friday. Russia and Ukraine had offered differing accounts of what happened to the vessel.

The defense source confirmed the ship was hit by two Neptune missiles, and told NPR there are likely casualties._









Russia now says 1 crew member died, 27 are missing in the sinking of its warship


Experts say the loss of the Moskva — the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet — is significant both symbolically and militarily, even if it doesn't deal a decisive blow to Russia's overall operations.




www.npr.org





I'm assuming he has access to satellite imagery or other intel.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

Here's a fantastic artical about rhe parallels between the current Uktaine situation and Finland back in '39 - One of my favorite parts if the artical, is the part that states that the Ukraine and Finland are members of the "f**k around and find out" club! 









Before the Ukrainians, It Was the Finns Who Kicked Russia’s Ass


The largely forgotten Winter War of 1939-40.




www.thebulwark.com

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## buffnut453 (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The Russian missile cruiser that was damaged in a fire on Thursday was hit and ultimately sunk by Ukrainian missile strikes, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed on Friday. Russia and Ukraine had offered differing accounts of what happened to the vessel.
> 
> The defense source confirmed the ship was hit by two Neptune missiles, and told NPR there are likely casualties._
> 
> ...



There definitely were casualties aboard Moskva. Apparently there were only 58 survivors, with all the remainder of the 510 hands onboard either killed in the explosion/fire or going down with the ship. According to Russian sources, the captain was killed in the explosion....and yet they had claimed to have evacuated the entire crew from the ship in the first few hours after Ukraine claimed to have struck the vessel.

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russia has sent a formal letter to the U.S. warning that shipments of sensitive weapons from the United States and NATO were exacerbating tensions in Ukraine and could lead to "unpredictable consequences," The Washington Post reported.
> 
> The letter, which was viewed by [t]he Post, added that the U.S. has flouted the rules governing the transfer of weapons to conflict zones.
> 
> ...


WE HAVE MORE TRACTORS

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 15, 2022)

Well, I can bought some light to the Moskva sinking..

Rusia says that a fire broke out in the ship and ammo exploiding did the damage.

The ukrainian missiles certainly were ammo exploiding.

So, russians are not lying. At most, not connecting the dots!

BTW, in Putin world, if you are so inept to make Rusia look weak, you don't deserve go back to it. So after the crew go out of the ship and uncle Vlad knows, he simply ordered them back to the ship and let the storm decide if they arrive to Port. That's the reason for the news about the out and in of the crew!

Seriously, if the RF navy is in the same state of readiness than the army, the sinking is in no way unexpected. Poor training and not applying SOP for combat could lead to open watertight compartments that spread the fire (what ever the cause) and ineffective firefight and control measures .

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There definitely were casualties aboard Moskva. Apparently there were only 58 survivors, with all the remainder of the 510 hands onboard either killed in the explosion/fire or going down with the ship. According to Russian sources, the captain was killed in the explosion....and yet they had claimed to have evacuated the entire crew from the ship in the first few hours after Ukraine claimed to have struck the vessel.



Yeah, as in so many other instances the Russians just can't seem to get their story straight ... or their act together.

I wonder how this sinking will affect the war in the south.


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## Valdez (Apr 15, 2022)

Ukraine: We sank Russia's ship.
Russia: No you didn't.
Ukraine: Then why did your ship just sink?
Russia: Um... we're idiots. That's our story and we're sticking to it.
Ukraine: We could've told you that already.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Well, I can bought some light to the Moskva sinking..
> 
> Rusia says that a fire broke out in the ship and ammo exploiding did the damage.
> 
> ...


“Ukrainian missiles certainly were ammo exploding.”
🤣🤣🤣

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably only 14 sailors survived Moskva sunk - for now 496 men are reported missing....



Do you or anyone else have good sources for casualties? I've been looking around and they're mostly vague and don't accord with each other.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 15, 2022)

I keep reading that the ship sent out an SOS in morse code. Is that still used?











Relatives of Moskva crew defy Russian censors with unofficial memorial


Ukraine said it launched a missile strike on the Moskva from the coast, which ripped open the Soviet-era ship. Russia admitted last night that the ship sank, but has not said anything of an attack.




www.dailymail.co.uk





From the article:

"Rumours have also began circulating in Ukrainian media that Admiral Igor Osipov - the commander of Russia's Black Sea fleet which the Moskva led - has been arrested in what would be the latest in a string of detentions linked to the bungled invasion.

Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian-Israeli businessman who fled the country in 2003 after being targeted by Putin, said yesterday that 20 Russian generals have been arrested over the military's failings along with 150 FSB officers for providing false information about Ukraine's defences."

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## SaparotRob (Apr 15, 2022)

That’s how to foster Espirit des Corps!

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 15, 2022)



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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's a fantastic artical about rhe parallels between the current Uktaine situation and Finland back in '39 - One of my favorite parts if the artical, is the part that states that the Ukraine and Finland are members of the "f**k around and find out" club!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A really good article, many thanks for finding and posting it.

Personally I found this quote by Khrushchev in 1970 about the Finnish War which is repeating itself today

_Even in these most favorable conditions it was only after great difficulty and enormous losses that we were finally able to win. A victory at such a cost was actually a moral defeat. Our people never knew [in 1940] that we had suffered a moral defeat, of course, because they were never told the truth. Quite the contrary. When the Finnish war ended our country was told, "Let the trumpets of victory sound!" But the seeds of doubt had been sown_

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

This is always fun to see the Russian propaganda machine at work.









US, Allies Face Depleted Weapons Stockpiles As 'Aid' to Kiev 'Blows Through' Supplies: Report


Thousands of Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, and other lethal weapons have already been given to Ukraine by Washington, with the White House announcing on 13 April that it will send $800 million in...




sputniknews.com

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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

Unfortunately I don't seem to be able to access this article


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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So Russia first claims that they got the entire crew off the Moskva....then somehow they got the fire under control (without the crew)....then they put all the crew back onboard....and then the ship sinks losing all hands except 58 survivors. Am I tracking that correctly?
> 
> To add further evidence that Russia's account is nonsense, the Kremlin claimed that Moskva was not hit by Ukrainian missiles but instead suffered a fire. However, overnight, Russia attacked a Ukrainian missile facility in Kyiv that was responsible for cruise missiles and, crucially, anti-ship missiles:
> 
> ...



- It's dead.
- No, it's resting.

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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> I'm always reminded of the conversation that took place in early 1941 in Berlin before Germany attacked Russia. The Russian ambassador and Russian Minister were in Berlin and there was an air raid in progress. The Russian minister turned to the German politician and asked why if everything was going so well, why were they in the bomb shelter and not the British?


Yes, historical fact. Just a bit earlier. Molotov's visit in November 1940.


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## Glider (Apr 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Yes, historical fact. Just a bit earlier. Molotov's visit in November 1940.


I was close


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## Dimlee (Apr 15, 2022)

Coordinates and satellite image.








Satellite Image Pinpoints Russian Cruiser Moskva As She Burned - Naval News


Analysis of radar satellite imagery has revealed the location of the Moskva soon after she was reportedly hit by 2 missiles. The Russian Navy cruiser was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet and is a symbolic as well as naval loss for Russia.




www.navalnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is always fun to see the Russian propaganda machine at work.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's true that our aid is being taken from active stockpiles, and that we'll spend a bit of time and money replacing them. After all, we only produce about 1,000 Javelins/year, and we've given the Ukrainians how many?

But we have the luxury of distance, so this seems like a good calculated risk.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's true that our aid is being taken from active stockpiles, and that we'll spend a bit of time and money replacing them. After all, we only produce about 1,000 Javelins/year, and we've given the Ukrainians how many?


I imagine the US and European manufacturers are working extra shifts to replace what’s been shipped. They’ll gladly take the taxpayer funds. Just like wars before, a lot of industrialists are going to get rich from this one.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Finland will kick Russia's ass. They are not to be fooled with.


Indeed. But that’s not made Putin think before acting before.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine the US and European manufacturers are working extra shifts to replace what’s been shipped. They’ll gladly take the taxpayer funds. Just like wars before, a lot of industrialists are going to get rich from this one.



The article I read talked about introducing second and third shifts, and perhaps even reopening the Stinger II line.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> Unfortunately I don't seem to be able to access this article


I was able to and it's bloody funny.


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## Denniss (Apr 15, 2022)

A copy/repost is available there:








Arab News 24.cArabic Newspaper in Canada & USA / Leading A


Web Ste serving Arabic Community in Canada & USA- The official site for ArabNews Int'l




www.arabnews24.ca


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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 15, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Apr 15, 2022)

Denniss said:


> A copy/repost is available there:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is a good test of the US weapons supply chain. A full on NATO-involved war in the ETO will need more than ten times whatever Ukraine is consuming in MANPATS and MANPADS. Better to know now than later that expedited yet limited (from a world war POV) use stresses replacement rates.

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 15, 2022)

Denniss said:


> A copy/repost is available there:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ok - reading through this quickly, I see some issues...

I see no references indicating that there will be shortages of any kind, no comments from any US officials, nothing from "official" sources. It's obvious that the supply of these weapons can't last forever but it seems this piece is more speculation than fact. 

Now it's funny - About 21 years ago a former employer did some munition testing for bomb stockpiles that were stored at China Lake, CA. *These were 500 pound free fall bombs that pre-dated Vietnam! *A sample was taken from the stockpile and dropped at the ordnance range at Edwards AFB. These bombs worked at advertised and there were still plenty left!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is a good test of the US weapons supply chain. A full on NATO-involved war in the ETO will need more than ten times whatever Ukraine is consuming in MANPATS and MANPADS. Better to know now than later that expedited yet limited (from a world war POV) use stresses replacement rates.


Looks like this was from "Sputnik News" 









US, Allies Face Depleted Weapons Stockpiles As 'Aid' to Kiev 'Blows Through' Supplies: Report


Thousands of Javelin anti-tank weapon systems, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, and other lethal weapons have already been given to Ukraine by Washington, with the White House announcing on 13 April that it will send $800 million in...




sputniknews.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 15, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Apr 15, 2022)

This, OTOH, is not funny but rather typical of Russia and this war.

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> - It's dead.
> - No, it's resting.



Beautiful Plumage

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Ok - reading through this quickly, I see some issues...
> 
> I see no references indicating that there will be shortages of any kind, no comments from any US officials, nothing from "official" sources. It's obvious that the supply of these weapons can't last forever but it seems this piece is more speculation than fact.
> 
> Now it's funny - About 21 years ago a former employer did some munition testing for bomb stockpiles that were stored at China Lake, CA. *These were 500 pound free fall bombs that pre-dated Vietnam! *A sample was taken from the stockpile and dropped at the ordnance range at Edwards AFB. These bombs worked at advertised and there were still plenty left!



And now we are converting free fall bombs to smart bombs.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



I read one of the replies. If the Ukrainians didn't sink it, why are the Russians retaliating?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Looks like this was from "Sputnik News"
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am reminded of Jay Leno's Dorito snack commercials. Don't worry. We'll make more.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Now it's funny - About 21 years ago a former employer did some munition testing for bomb stockpiles that were stored at China Lake, CA. *These were 500 pound free fall bombs that pre-dated Vietnam! *A sample was taken from the stockpile and dropped at the ordnance range at Edwards AFB. These bombs worked at advertised and there were still plenty left!


When I was at NWS Seal Beach in the late 70's, the EOD guys were in the process of going through WWII ordnance, some slated for disposal and some were diverted to practice area storage (most likely shipped to China Lake and Yuma).
Those acres and acres of bunkers held everything from .45 ammunition to 16" shells, bombs and so on.
The station also still had it's munition assembly buildings, though they hadn't been used in decades and were full of office furniture and mess tables, but it could be put back into service easily enough.

I'm also pretty sure that the material we've provided to the Ukraine so far, hasn't put a dent in our stockpiles, stored either in depots or on base across the U.S. or overseas.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read one of the replies. If the Ukrainians didn't sink it, why are the Russians retaliating?



Ole Willie Shakespeare said it best: _Methinks the lady doth protest too much_.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 15, 2022)

As for Javelin resupply: Surge capacity exists for Javelin, but Army has yet to say how many it wants

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## at6 (Apr 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is always fun to see the Russian propaganda machine at work.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Glider said:


> Unfortunately I don't seem to be able to access this article


Neither could I but then it's just as well. Why read Sputnasty arcticles anyway?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 15, 2022)

at6 said:


> Neither could I but then it's just as well. Why read Sputnasty arcticles anyway?


I occasionally check out Al Jazeera, RT and others, just to see the "spin" they put on things.

If anything, it's like reading the Sunday Comic section of the newspaper.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 15, 2022)

As a former tanker, this thread rings true...

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## at6 (Apr 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This, OTOH, is not funny but rather typical of Russia and this war.



Find him and remove his willy with a blow torch.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I occasionally check out Al Jazeera, RT and others, just to see the "spin" they put on things.
> 
> If anything, it's like reading the Sunday Comic section of the newspaper.



I too like to get different news perspectives. It’s worth watching other news sources because if you only watch the ones that tell you what you want to hear you often aren’t getting the news. 

RT is just straight propaganda though and a waste of time.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 16, 2022)

at6 said:


> Find him and remove his willy with a blow torch.


Or find him and toss him into a Turkish prison.
He'll have an entirely different perspective of rape...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Or find him and toss him into a Turkish prison.
> He'll have an entirely different perspective of rape...

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## WARSPITER (Apr 16, 2022)

Apparently in Turkish prisons you may get bounced by bayraktars at any time.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Apparently in Turkish prisons you may get bounced by bayraktars at any time.


Only If you're Russian...

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

Okay, total rant. If Putler says he will act unpredictably let’s start shooting down Russian snooper planes that cross American airspace. They might be carrying nukes.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Okay, total rant. If Putler says he will act unpredictability let’s start shooting down Russian snooper planes that cross American airspace. They might be carrying nukes.


IIRC Donald Trump had cancelled that treaty - so both would be free to do so.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

More ranting. Let’s start shipping M-1 Abrams to Poland. How long to train crews who might already be familiar with, oh I don’t know, T-72s maybe? Let’s assume the trainees are motivated.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

Hey BiffF15, think you could train someone (let’s say someone who is a qualified MiG-29 pilot) to be competent in an F-15C? How long might that take?


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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

Competent does not mean Chuck Yeager level competence.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> More ranting. Let’s start shipping M-1 Abrams to Poland. How long to train crews who might already be familiar with, oh I don’t know, T-72s maybe? Let’s assume the trainees are motivated.


Presuming good motivation? About a year. There is very little in common between an M-1 and a T-72. First you need to enlist 25% more tankers. You need to get them used to being a four man crew, manually loading the main gun, learning the completely different fire-control systems (thermal sights, computer, laser rangefinder, etc). learning to drive the vehicle, leaning to maintain the vehicle according to the -10 and the real killer - everyone learning all four positions well enough to fill in if necessary and work together at them as a team. Then after all that training comes qualifying on the tank gunnery course, a 2 to 3 month process in itself. It may be different now with the improved sim software available but that took lots of hands on work with the crew, dummy rounds and the gunner/TC going through lots of exercises before even firing the first round downrange. 

Meanwhile the unit maintenance and direct support maintenance would need to learn how to maintain the new tank and even worse, the new turret. They would need to learn to use all the special tools that exist for the tank and its electronic components. Swap out the entire spare parts stocks. 

Logistics train would be completely overhauled: 120 mm semi-caseless ammo in place of the two piece 125mm ammo, different fueling techniques and depending on circumstance, different fuel. The M-1 turbine is multifuel but you'll need a _LOT_ more of that fuel. You'll need different recovery vehicles as well. 

Changing vehicle types is one thing M-1 ->M-1A ->M-1A1->M-1A2 or T-64 ->T-80 even, is one thing. Changing vehicle ecosystems is a very different thing and you don't want to be doing it while combat operations are underway (well, unless you're the US in WWII... )

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Presuming good motivation? About a year. There is very little in common between an M-1 and a T-72. First you need to enlist 25% more tankers. You need to get them used to being a four man crew, manually loading the main gun, learning the completely different fire-control systems (thermal sights, computer, laser rangefinder, etc). learning to drive the vehicle, leaning to maintain the vehicle according to the -10 and the real killer - everyone learning all four positions well enough to fill in if necessary and work together at them as a team. Then after all that training comes qualifying on the tank gunnery course, a 2 to 3 month process in itself. It may be different now with the improved sim software available but that took lots of hands on work with the crew, dummy rounds and the gunner/TC going through lots of exercises before even firing the first round downrange.
> 
> Meanwhile the unit maintenance and direct support maintenance would need to learn how to maintain the new tank and even worse, the new turret. They would need to learn to use all the special tools that exist for the tank and its electronic components. Swap out the entire spare parts stocks.
> 
> ...


Or you are in Ukraine being invaded by hordes of semi competent Putinistas. 
I know, I know. I appreciate your answer, big time. It’s just that the West seems to be running out of Soviet tanks. Just like Russia. 
I guess we should start the process now.


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## Glider (Apr 16, 2022)

I admit twelve months to train a tank crew was more than I expected. In a war situation which is what we are talking about there normally are ways to shorten training periods.
How long does it take to train say a National Guardsman to use an M1, presumably as this is part time training it must take three to four years

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## JDCAVE (Apr 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Presuming good motivation? About a year. There is very little in common between an M-1 and a T-72…


Dad went from the OTU on twin engine Wellingtons in July 1944 with a crew of 6, to less than a month at HCU on 4-engine Halifaxes September 1944, adding the flight engineer, and then about 10 days on Lancasters on his operational squadron before his first Op October 4, 1944.

Necessity can contract timelines. Better start translating those Tank Manuals to Ukrainian.

Jim

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## Dimlee (Apr 16, 2022)

During the last few days, I scanned some Russian sources - Telegram channels and forums in order to understand how people in RF discussed the "Moskva" cruiser sinking. Mostly, it was as expected: anger, sadness, blaming NATO and all "West" (because, you know, they are fighting NATO, not Ukraine). 
But one thing did surprise me: they mourned *the ship*, not the crew. Just several questions such as "but how many boys did survive", immediately rebuked: "this is a war and our leadership knows what to disclose". And most of the talk was about the ship, her weapons, her history, her "glory".
Certain things never change in the Moscow-land. They do value their military toys more than human lives.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> During the last few days, I scanned some Russian sources - Telegram channels and forums in order to understand how people in RF discussed the "Moskva" cruiser sinking. Mostly, it was as expected: anger, sadness, blaming NATO and all "West" (because, you know, they are fighting NATO, not Ukraine).
> But one thing did surprise me: they mourned *the ship*, not the crew. Just several questions such as "but how many boys did survive", immediately rebuked: "this is a war and our leadership knows what to disclose". And most of the talk was about the ship, her weapons, her history, her "glory".
> Certain things never change in the Moscow-land. They do value their military toys more than human lives.



Thanks for sharing Dimlee. I’m intrigued by the “this is war” comment. I thought it was a special military operation.

It’s the same contradiction when we saw a Russian politician on TV state that the sinking of Moskva was “an act of war.” If it was a self-inflicted fire, how can it be an act of war?

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## Glider (Apr 16, 2022)

You will all have seen that Russia has started to attack areas that are very important to the Ukraine Army such ast tank repair centres, missile factories and have threatened to attack supplies coming into the Ukraine once they cross the border.

I certainly don't pretend to be a strategic colossus, but I am pretty sure I would have prioritised those targets first, certainly before targeting hospitals, schools and other civilian area's.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

I guess it depends if one is waging war or waging terror.

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## GTX (Apr 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> More ranting. Let’s start shipping M-1 Abrams to Poland. How long to train crews who might already be familiar with, oh I don’t know, T-72s maybe? Let’s assume the trainees are motivated.


First ones arrive later this year: 









Abrams for Poland - we reinforce the potential of the Polish Armed Forces - Ministry of National Defence - Gov.pl website


“It is a very important day in the history of Polish-American cooperation, but also a very important day when it comes to the history of the Polish Armed Forces. An agreement has just been signed, that guarantees the delivery of 250 Abrams tanks in the most modern version for the Polish Army. In...




www.gov.pl

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> First ones arrive later this year:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## Glider (Apr 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I guess it depends if one is waging war or waging terror.


True definately but with what is going on around them I am willing to bet that Poland will be full steam ahead on this

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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2022)

First pictures that purportedly show survivors from the Moskva:

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

I’ll bet they get checked for heart problems right away.

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## special ed (Apr 16, 2022)

It's unfortunate they allowed their ammunition to catch fire. Will they all go to Siberia for losing their ship and surviving?


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## GTX (Apr 16, 2022)

Dead me walking if real

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## Glider (Apr 16, 2022)

I'm sorry but this doesn't pass my smell test. To be sunk in such a manner is hugely traumatic. Then in a couple of days rescue them, transport them back to home port, reissue the uniforms and then stand on parade.

It can be done and may well have happened, but it doesn't feel right.

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## MiTasol (Apr 16, 2022)

And from some of the reports, that only a handful survived, I would suspect a lot of those in that line were assigned to the ship just before the parade.

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## GTX (Apr 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> I'm sorry but this doesn't pass my smell test. To be sunk in such a manner is hugely traumatic. Then in a couple of days rescue them, transport them back to home port, reissue the uniforms and then stand on parade.
> 
> It can be done and may well have happened, but it doesn't feel right.


Agreed


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## MiTasol (Apr 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I too like to get different news perspectives. It’s worth watching other news sources because if you only watch the ones that tell you what you want to hear you often aren’t getting the news.
> 
> RT is just straight propaganda though and a waste of time.


I agree. I routinely watch DW from Germany as well as two US sources (NOT Fox - it is owned by Australias most dangerous export) a Kiwi and an Aus source (again not owned by Murdoch).

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

Same.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 16, 2022)

I miss DW's shortwave English service. I used to love relaxing in a hot bath while listening to it.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It’s the same contradiction when we saw a Russian politician on TV state that the sinking of Moskva was “an act of war.” If it was a self-inflicted fire, how can it be an act of war?


It WAS a "special military operation". Now this loss has escalated it to "act of war" status, regardless of the cause of it. The culprit, friendly or hostile, WILL suffer!


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 16, 2022)

special ed said:


> It's unfortunate they allowed their ammunition to catch fire. Will they all go to Siberia for losing their ship and surviving?


Well, for sure any of them who were aware of incoming Neptunes will need to be out of circulation before they can contaminate anyone else. They're already most likely not in that inspection lineup, along with any ordnance types or damage control troops who might contradict the party line.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 16, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> It WAS a "special military operation". Now this loss has escalated it to "act of war" status, regardless of the cause of it. The culprit, friendly or hostile, WILL suffer!


Uh-oh. The forces of Nature are on Putin's sh!t list.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 16, 2022)

Those guys all looked to be in great shape, considering their ship suffered a massive explosion, fire and sinking...

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## buffnut453 (Apr 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> I'm sorry but this doesn't pass my smell test. To be sunk in such a manner is hugely traumatic. Then in a couple of days rescue them, transport them back to home port, reissue the uniforms and then stand on parade.
> 
> It can be done and may well have happened, but it doesn't feel right.



I tend to agree. There was a fire and an explosion, and allegedly the ship sank under them….but none of the men in that line-up have any visible wounds.

Forgive my skepticism.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 16, 2022)

_The governor of St. Petersburg confirmed that another Russian general has been killed amid the invasion of Ukraine, honoring him in a ceremony on Saturday, Russian media reported.

The deputy commander of the 8th Army, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Petrovich Frolov, died while fighting against Ukraine, Russian news outlets reported, citing St. Petersburg's administration's press service.

[...]

Several other Russian generals and top military personnel have reportedly been killed midst Russia's ongoing invasion against its neighbor, including deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District Andrei Sukhovetsky; Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, Lt. Gen Yakov Rezantsev; and Col. Sergei Sukharev, commander of the elite 331st Guards Airborne Regiment._









Another Russian general killed amid invasion, Russian official says


The governor of St. Petersburg confirmed that another Russian general has been killed amid the invasion of Ukraine, honoring him in a ceremony on Saturday, Russian media reported. The deputy comman…




thehill.com





If this keeps up we'll be seeing corporals leading battalions and sergeants leading regiments.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 16, 2022)

You can hide a lot of assassinations in a war.
Just ask Uriah.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 16, 2022)

_Finland and Sweden appear to be edging closer to joining NATO, a move that leaders and experts see as the best way to confront Russia as it escalates its rhetoric on nuclear weapons. 

The conflict in Ukraine has forced the two Nordic nations to reconsider their absence from the alliance forged after World War II, which commits members to defending one another if attacked. 

*"Mr. Putin is proving NATO relevant and necessary," said Sean Monaghan, a visiting fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "If NATO didn't exist, you'd have to invent it." *

"Finland in particular but also Sweden are very stoic on these matters and see Russia with clear eyes. And that's why I think ultimately they will join NATO because they've seen Russia's revisionist threat has been building. And now it has boiled over with the invasion of Ukraine, and there's kind of no way back, and the best way for them to secure themselves against the threat posed by Russia is to join NATO." 

As politicians and poll results in the two countries have reversed course on the prospect — favoring joining NATO after decades of abstaining — Moscow has renewed its threat of using nuclear weapons. 

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former president of Russia, wrote in a Telegram post on Thursday that "there can be no talk of non-nuclear status for the Baltic" if Finland and Sweden join NATO, adding that "the balance must be restored." 

He said that should Finland and Sweden become part of the alliance, Moscow would need to "seriously strengthen the grouping of land forces and air defense, deploy significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland." _









Russia pushes Finland, Sweden into NATO’s arms


Finland and Sweden appear to be edging closer to joining NATO, a move that leaders and experts see as the best way to confront Russia as it escalates its rhetoric on nuclear weapons. The conf…




thehill.com





I've emboldened what I think is the key point here, and one that seems to be playing out in Swedish and Finnish public opinion.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 16, 2022)

It looks like Mariupol will fall to the Russians within the next day or two.



Russia says all urban areas of Mariupol cleared of Ukrainian forces



A big question will be once this war is over will Ukraine get it back?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It looks like Mariupol will fall to the Russians within the next day or two.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting - Russia claims Ukraine forces in Mariupol surrendered three days ago.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Interesting - Russia claims Ukraine forces in Mariupol surrendered three days ago.


There have been no parades of captured Ukrainian troops. I suspect very few surrender. Instead they’re fighting, escaping or dying.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 16, 2022)

Just about anything claimed by Russia pegs my bullshit meter.

If we recall, just a few weeks ago, Ukraine forces launched a counter-offensive and drove the Russians back, at Mariupol. I honestly don't think the fighting is done there.

The Russians may have cleared a city block or perhaps a parking garage and this would be their great victory claimed.

I'll beleive Mariupol is lost when President Zelensky says it is.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There have been no parades of captured Ukrainian troops. I suspect very few surrender. Instead they’re fighting, escaping or dying.



The Azov btn fighting there won't surrender, simply because that means roadside execution and they know it.

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## MiTasol (Apr 17, 2022)

People keep saying Putin must be allowed to save face. In the face of the continuing atrocities I think that time has passed.

I think it is time for the west to tell Putin *any *use of Nuclear weapons will result in radiation spreading to NATO countries. That will automatically be taken as a declaration of war by Putin, but not the Russian civilian population, on NATO. This also needs to be broadcast from relay transmitters hanging from weather balloons to the Russian population. Such transmitters would be difficult to eliminate and will stay aloft for many hours.

As he knows the Ukranians have proven his army is next to useless and a small NATO force could destroy the rest of his army within days so he needs to sue for peace now. Nothing less than the total removal of all Russian military and quasi-military personnel from all of the 1991 borders of Ukraine will be acceptable.

Unlike Putin NATO does not murder civilians and will do everything in its power to minimize civilian casualties. However, if NATO is forced into this war, they will destroy one Russian city of similar size for every Ukrainian city destroyed and destroy it to the same extent. Unlike Putin however NATO will give the cities 72 hours for all persons to evacuate. 

To prevent Putin from defending said cities ten cities will be told to evacuate for every one to be destroyed. To prove that NATO is serious a military target in each of the named cities will be destroyed.

After the conflict Ukraine and NATO will not occupy any part of Russia.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 17, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> People keep saying Putin must be allowed to save face. In the face of the continuing atrocities I think that time has passed.
> 
> I think it is time for the west to tell Putin *any *use of Nuclear weapons will result in radiation spreading to NATO countries. That will automatically be taken as a declaration of war by Putin, but not the Russian civilian population, on NATO. This also needs to be broadcast from relay transmitters hanging from weather balloons to the Russian population. Such transmitters would be difficult to eliminate and will stay aloft for many hours.
> 
> ...



Sorry, but this ain’t Hollywood my friend.

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## J_P_C (Apr 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> More ranting. Let’s start shipping M-1 Abrams to Poland. How long to train crews who might already be familiar with, oh I don’t know, T-72s maybe? Let’s assume the trainees are motivated.


i think it is already happen right now.... Poland just signed deal for delivery of 250 M1 SEP3 with supporting equipment. They are rumors that first 28 units - older versions delivered has been already delivered from US stocks for training purposes.

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## J_P_C (Apr 17, 2022)

In response to Russian threat's Finns has released special training manual for their citizens:

Looks like taking Russians threats seriously is not quite in fashion right now..

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## SaparotRob (Apr 17, 2022)

That’s funny.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 17, 2022)

Good thread on how the Russians are wasting their reinforcements.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 17, 2022)

And here's a former marine's take on the current situation: 















Comics


The most popular military comic strip in the world! You can't spell disgruntled without grunt.



terminallance.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 17, 2022)

Interesting analysis about the Moskva sinking:









Analysis: Chain of Negligence caused the loss of the Moskva cruiser - Naval News


The shock of the sinking of Moskva continues. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for the event, there has been much speculation.




www.navalnews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'll beleive Mariupol is lost when President Zelensky says it is.


He’s setting up expectations for that announcement.









Zelensky Says Mariupol Situation Is Dire


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the situation in the eastern city of Mariupol “very difficult” and said “it’s clear that things won’t get better.” Speaking during an interview that aired Sun




www.wsj.com

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## JDCAVE (Apr 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Interesting analysis about the Moskva sinking:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The article stated “The claim reveals that the Top Pair radar couldn't distinguish the Neptunes flying over the sea from the crests of the waves due to the stormy weather.”

I’d be surprised if this was the case. Even my 4’ open array radar has anti sea clutter capability. Surely the Russians would have some pretty sophisticated systems that would have the capability to filter interference from sea-state. I think the radar operators just weren’t paying attention. Or for some reason had turned off alarms/alerts possibly due to false alarms received to that point.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 17, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> The article stated “The claim reveals that the Top Pair radar couldn't distinguish the Neptunes flying over the sea from the crests of the waves due to the stormy weather.”
> 
> I’d be surprised if this was the case. Even my 4’ open array radar has anti sea clutter capability. Surely the Russians would have some pretty sophisticated systems that would have the capability to filter interference from sea-state. I think the radar operators just weren’t paying attention. Or for some reason had turned off alarms/alerts possibly due to false alarms received to that point.


Or drunk.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 17, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> The article stated “The claim reveals that the Top Pair radar couldn't distinguish the Neptunes flying over the sea from the crests of the waves due to the stormy weather.”
> 
> I’d be surprised if this was the case. Even my 4’ open array radar has anti sea clutter capability. Surely the Russians would have some pretty sophisticated systems that would have the capability to filter interference from sea-state. I think the radar operators just weren’t paying attention. Or for some reason had turned off alarms/alerts possibly due to false alarms received to that point.


Just after that the article dismiss that idea:

*"These claims lack a solid basis, as the ship in question is a cruiser with good air defense capabilities."*

And further below elaborate why dismessed it:

*"On the other hand, it is not reasonable to compare a search radar (MR -800 Voshkod/Top Pair) with a tracking radar (3P41 Volna). Prior to the introduction of fixed face AESA radar technology, warships use search radars to detect air contacts. If the air operator believes the contact is a threat, he/she forwards the contact to the tracking radar to illuminate the target for surface-to-air missiles. Tracking radars are not there to “detect” a target, but to illuminate the contact that has already been detected by the search radar. These two types of radars are pieces of a puzzle that serve the same purpose.

Also, these radars may have some blind sectors due to the structure of the ship, but there are other radars to cover the blind sectors, just like the Slava class cruisers have more than one radar (Top Dome, 2xPop Group, 3xBass Tilt, Kite Screech fire control radar). So this ship can continuously track the air contacts, even if the contact moves into the blind sector of the radar, the operator can forward the contact to another tracker and keep following.


As mentioned above, the sea state was not tough to hide the sea-skimming missile from radar. Even if there was a tough sea, the search radar would detect it, but it might have some difficulties in maintaining the contact due to the sea clutter. When the sea state is high, the missile’s flying altitude gets higher because the missile’s altimeter adjusts the altitude from the wavetop.

Slava-class cruisers are equipped with the 4xRum Tub electronic support system, which can detect Neptune anti-ship missiles’ radar seekers. After detecting the radar seeker, the ship would have about 2 minutes to defend against the missile. In addition, the Moskva was armed with 6x30mm/AK630 close-in weapon systems that have their own radar and are capable of detecting and engaging the incoming missiles themselves."*

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## SaparotRob (Apr 17, 2022)

And the NATO designations are really entertaining. I haven’t read those since the ‘80s.

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## GTX (Apr 17, 2022)

Suitable poignant Death's Head image of the War:

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Admiral Igor Osipov - the commander of Russia's Black Sea fleet which the Moskva led - has been arrested in what would be the latest in a string of detentions linked to the bungled invasion.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Suitable Death's Head image of the War:


Almost Aztek in appearance...

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## JDCAVE (Apr 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Just after that the article dismiss that idea:
> 
> *"These claims lack a solid basis, as the ship in question is a cruiser with good air defense capabilities."*


Thanks for correcting me. Sorry about that. I should have read further.

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## ThomasP (Apr 17, 2022)

Some time ago (~20 years) I read a summary on the radars of the then most advanced ships in the Russian fleet. One of the things that stuck in my mind is that the non-phased array search radars did not have automated detection alert, ie they relied on the operator to sort the return from the clutter. Some sort of hand-off system was then employed by the operator to give the target to the fire control radar. It was considered a significant weakness. Also, the AK630 weapons system was not used in the automatic mode unless the ship knew it was under attack (not sure why, the report did not give operational reasons).

Also, if the Ukrainians had solid targeting intel, it is possible that the Neptunes did not need to turn on their radar until about 20 sec before impact.

Edit: To clarify, the non-phased array radars had capabilities like moving target indicator, and some included track while scan, but the operator had to tell the radar what was important and had to inform/hand-off the target to the fire control system operator/radar. Kind of like the early AWG-9 system in the F-14 Tomcat.

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## Glider (Apr 17, 2022)

Obviously I don't know but my suspicion is that it's the training and culture of the crew and the service is likely to have been the major problem. Not the equipment on board the ship itself.

The maximum time the crew would have had was approx. two minutes. As the article rightly says the response needs to be instant, there is no time to pass anything up the chain of command. Immediately the ship would need to start strong evasive manoeuvres, chaff and other decoys fired/initiated and the defensive weapons activated.

In a culture where no one is allowed to show initiative, this is a big ask. It's one that would go against every fibre in the crews lifetime experience and that, in a situation where every second counts, could easily have been the recipe for disaster. 

People would want to double check before pushing the alarms because they were afraid of making a mistake. Alternatively, or possibly as well as decisions could have been escalated because they were afraid of making a decision. It all takes time that they didn't have.

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## ThomasP (Apr 17, 2022)

If the search radar system operator did not detect/notice the target at max detection range (say 20 miles), and the missile did not turn on its radar until a time of 20 sec before impact, it is possible the missile would not have been detected/noticed by the RWR/ECM system until it was at a range of 2.5-3 miles.

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## swampyankee (Apr 17, 2022)

Regarding automatic mode on the Moskva's CIGS, I've been told that the USN had to turn off the auto mode of its Phalanx due to its propensity (possibly fixed) to shoot the tips off helicopter rotor blades.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Regarding automatic mode on the Moskva's CIGS, I've been told that the USN had to turn off the auto mode of its Phalanx due to its propensity (possibly fixed) to shoot the tips off helicopter rotor blades.



I recall a similar story when Phalanx first entered service. It was reputedly so sensitive that it would engage an incoming missile...and then proceed to shoot down all the debris after the missile exploded. It sounds cool except that the system was expending all its rounds trying to hit ever smaller pieces of shrapnel. I understand they fixed that "feature".


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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2022)

Update on the Moskva:

_Some 40 sailors were killed, several are missing and many more were wounded in the sinking of the warship Moskva, the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe reports quoting the mother of a sailor believed to be on board.

The mother said her son told her in a phone call that the Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, had been hit by three missiles from land, from Ukrainian territory.

"He called me and was crying because of what he had seen. It was terrifying," she said, adding that she herself was terrified of having to wait for him to finish his service.

He said he would not give her the details of what he had seen because it was so terrible, adding that many of the wounded had lost limbs because of the explosions.

The newspaper has not named the sailor or his mother to protect them.

But it says it has documentary evidence which makes it plausible that the sailor was serving on the Moskva.

Russia's defence ministry has so far given no word of any casualties in the sinking. However, earlier we reported that Radio Liberty had confirmed the death of Midshipman Ivan Vakhrushev.

Meanwhile the ministry on Saturday posted video which it says is of the ship's sailors meeting the commander of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol.

It blames the sinking on a fire on board the ship and stormy weather. Ukraine says it hit the Moskva with two missiles.

Novaya Gazeta Europe was set up earlier this month to get around Russia's crackdown on media freedom. Its Russian counterpart suspended its operations in March after being repeatedly threatened with closure over its coverage of the invasion of Ukraine._


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## GrauGeist (Apr 17, 2022)

Good analysis of the Moskva sinking:









Analysis: Chain of Negligence caused the loss of the Moskva cruiser - Naval News


The shock of the sinking of Moskva continues. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for the event, there has been much speculation.




www.navalnews.com


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> People would want to double check before pushing the alarms because they were afraid of making a mistake. Alternatively, or possibly as well as decisions could have been escalated because they were afraid of making a decision. It all takes time that they didn't have.



As Cary Grant said in Destination Tokio: "That's all right, son. I'd rather submerge for one hundred birds, than NOT submerge for one plane." when they submerge due to a bird sighting.

BTW, is kind of puzzling for me that the RF army, navy, AF and security services don't incentive low rank autonomy for the battlefield. They are fighting like the Red Army in WW2. 

Man, that was some 80 years ago! The battlefield has evolved! 

If is true that Uncle Vlad is so interested in history, specially for the USSR and its falla, It seems that he didn't learn anything. Or he had been fed truely awful lies about the readiness state of the RF armed forces.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> BTW, is kind of puzzling for me that the RF army, navy, AF and security services don't incentive low rank autonomy for the battlefield. They are fighting like the Red Army in WW2.


That would be flying in the face of centuries of Russian/Soviet/Imperial culture. Overly capable and overly autonomous subordinates are unruly and threats to the command structure. Their society is not geared to produce the educated, self-motivated, and self-disciplined young folks that our recruiters get to chose from, nor are they economically able to provide the standard of living and professional pride that would make voluntary enlistment attractive enough to retire the conscription system. Now before you burst out in criticism of American youth, realize I'm talking relative terms here.
Before you can trust your troops with any level of initiative and autonomy, you've got to make them more capable and competent than can be expected in a one year enlistment. And you've got to change the training, habits, and attitudes of the officers and NCOs, which is well nigh impossible in a paranoid, top-down power structure such as exists in Stalin/Putin-land.
I was in the Navy when CNO Zumwalt tried to initiate modest changes in the deeply ingrained culture of the service, and the reactions were seismic, culminating In racial tensions and turf riots on ships in combat ops on Yankee Station and Dixie Station..

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## ThomasP (Apr 17, 2022)

It has been mentioned up-thread, but I will bring it up the 'True Believer' again.

I do not think that most of us understand the mentality of the majority of ruling class in the RF, or as least maybe we can understand but continue to figure that they would think like us. Mind you, the majority of the RF population are not 'True Believers' - like in most other societies the majority just want to be allowed to live their lives in peace.

When the USSR went down, a new social hierarchy arose, populated by many of the same families that had controlled the society under the Soviet government/Communist Party since the end of the Stalin era. These people had lived and worked for years under the Soviet social system, where if you went along with the Party line you were more likely to succeed than people who did not go along with the Party line. Many parents, who wanted their children to succeed under the new/post-USSR system, continued much of the old Party social system. The parents sent their children to the 'right' schools - schools that taught only what the ruling class wanted taught, ie a structure of beliefs that aided their continued control of the country(s). In many ways it was continuation of the same system that existed under the Communist Party, except that the new ruling class had less visible successful reality to build their system on.

(In some ways this is no different than what goes on in other societies. Some parents send their children to the 'right' schools, where they meet the 'right' people, and make social connections that will hopefully help them succeed in life. Sound familiar?)

There are now at least 2 'True Believer' generations of people in the RF. The 1st from the post-WWII reality adjustment under the Communist Party, their children being the 2nd from the post-Iron Curtain reality adjustment, with a 3rd generation in the offing.

I first ran into a 'True Believer' who had immigrated to the US about 2015, at the American Airlines Cargo facility in Bloomington MN. While we waited for our respective packages to arrive, he proceeded to explain to me that Russia was the seat of western civilization, not Egypt, Greece, Rome, Persia, (whoever), etal. He then went on to explain how the Cyrillic alphabet is the basis for all western alphabets, not the Greek and Arabic. And that most of the significant sudden progress type of developments had originated in Russia, and spread to the other western nations. When I brought up that in most of the Western nations we are taught otherwise, he explained that we had been lied to, and brainwashed into believing alternate facts (he actually used that term). The reasoning and convoluted logic and history train he presented made a certain amount of sense - IF you had never been exposed to any real evidence of the contrary. He was 45 years old and was the son of a fairly well-to-do former Communist Party member, now a member of the RF government.

It needs to be remembered that Putin grew up in this culture - he was born in 1952.

It should be noted that the West did not help matters by continuously attempting to undermine the Soviet government from the time it formed at the end of WWI, through the 20s, with a brief respite during the Depression and WWII, and then beginning again in the late 40s and continuing through to the fall of the Iron Curtain. Then came the whole sanction thing over civil rights, the US unilaterally abrogating the SALT treaty, etc. This history of behavior would breed a paranoia in any society that had more brain cells than an amoeba.

There are many other things that can be said relate to the subject, but I think that would venture too far into the politics arena.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 17, 2022)

"We're only trying to defend ourselves, not out to get you....unless we see an opportunity."

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I recall a similar story when Phalanx first entered service. It was reputedly so sensitive that it would engage an incoming missile...and then proceed to shoot down all the debris after the missile exploded. It sounds cool except that the system was expending all its rounds trying to hit ever smaller pieces of shrapnel. I understand they fixed that "feature".


On USS Stark both the radar ops and Phalanx failed to detect and engage two Exocets. Bad luck happens, though FFG-31 luckily survived the event.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> On USS Stark both the radar ops and Phalanx failed to detect and engage two Exocets. Bad luck happens, though FFG-31 luckily survived the event.


U.S.S. Stark, frigate, 2 Exocets, remained afloat. Moskva, guided missie cruiser, 2 Neptuns , sunk.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> U.S.S. Stark, frigate, 2 Exocets, remained afloat. Moskva, guided missie cruiser, 2 Neptuns , sunk.


Yep, sometimes luck is not on your side. HMS Sheffield was sunk after a single Exocet hit that didn’t even detonate. Meanwhile the destroyer HMS Glamorgan was hit by an Exocet and sailed herself back to Portsmouth.

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## BobB (Apr 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> "Rumours have also began circulating in Ukrainian media that Admiral Igor Osipov - the commander of Russia's Black Sea fleet which the Moskva led - has been arrested in what would be the latest in a string of detentions linked to the bungled invasion.
> 
> Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian-Israeli businessman who fled the country in 2003 after being targeted by Putin, said yesterday that 20 Russian generals have been arrested over the military's failings along with 150 FSB officers for providing false information about Ukraine's defences."

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## buffnut453 (Apr 17, 2022)

Photo allegedly shows damaged Moskva. Take it at whatever value you place on Tweets:

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## GrauGeist (Apr 17, 2022)

wow...looks like she was hit hard amidship, possibly in the superstructure, too.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Photo allegedly shows damaged Moskva. Take it at whatever value you place on Tweets:



Looks like a legit pic.



Moscow - Google Search


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 17, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> That would be flying in the face of centuries of Russian/Soviet/Imperial culture. Overly capable and overly autonomous subordinates are unruly and threats to the command structure. Their society is not geared to produce the educated, self-motivated, and self-disciplined young folks that our recruiters get to chose from, nor are they economically able to provide the standard of living and professional pride that would make voluntary enlistment attractive enough to retire the conscription system. Now before you burst out in criticism of American youth, realize I'm talking relative terms here.
> Before you can trust your troops with any level of initiative and autonomy, you've got to make them more capable and competent than can be expected in a one year enlistment. And you've got to change the training, habits, and attitudes of the officers and NCOs, which is well nigh impossible in a paranoid, top-down power structure such as exists in Stalin/Putin-land.
> I was in the Navy when CNO Zumwalt tried to initiate modest changes in the deeply ingrained culture of the service, and the reactions were seismic, culminating In racial tensions and turf riots on ships in combat ops on Yankee Station and Dixie Station..



A one-year hitch is not a lot of time. Even a dingbat fireman like myself had 16 weeks of BMT and tech-school, just to grad as an apprentice, entrusted with a firehose when SHTF but nothing else. It took another six months of OJT and some book study to get my -50 level appointment as a "journeyman" -- USAF term.

Now how much more complex is a ship and its systems? It sounds to me like the RF military is in the habit of plugging warm bodies into personnel slots and calling it a day ... but anyone who's served knows that on stuff like this 1) recruits make mistakes in direct proportion to their inexperience and 2) mistakes in combat (or a fireground, for that matter) can and do kill people.



SaparotRob said:


> U.S.S. Stark, frigate, 2 Exocets, remained afloat. Moskva, guided missie cruiser, 2 Neptuns , sunk.



If the Ukrainian reports are accurate. they hit it with two 330-lb warheads. An Exocet has a slightly larger ~370-lb warhead so the _Stark_ took a little more payload onto a smaller hull. But where they hit matters. A bridge hit hurts. An engineering hit is dangerous. A magazine hit ... well, you know ... The Stark was knocked out of action, but the captain and crew took action to keep the second hit -- which actually exploded and blew out some hull -- out of the water. 

I'm kinda second-guessing myself right now and wondering if those Russian sailors saved their ship from a magazine hit? It would explain the two apparently-contradictory accounts.

In any event, 650-700 lbs of explosive coming aboard quickly is bad for your health. Given the Russian butthurt being shown, I'm in agreement that Ukrainian missiles docked it on the seabed. 

It looks like Putin's in "oh yeah?!" mode.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> But where they hit matters. A bridge hit hurts. An engineering hit is dangerous. A magazine hit ... well, you know ... The Stark was knocked out of action, but the captain and crew took action to keep the second hit -- which actually exploded and blew out some hull -- out of the water.


Agreed. HMS Glamorgan managed to turn the ship so that the detected incoming Exocet partially glanced off. Her radar ops and command folks were up to the task.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Photo allegedly shows damaged Moskva. Take it at whatever value you place on Tweets:




The damage to the stern bespeaks a major and long-lasting fire.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The damage to the stern bespeaks a major and long-lasting fire.


Look at the superstructure in that photo, damn-near all of it's radar array is gone along with what appears to be portions of the structure itself.
One of the Neptunes had to have hit at or near to cause such damage.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 18, 2022)

To paraphrase a reply to the tweet, wasn't there supposed to be bad weather?


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## GrauGeist (Apr 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> To paraphrase a reply to the tweet, wasn't there supposed to be bad weather?


I think the Russians meant to say it was "bad whether or not".
You know how translating Cyrillic to English can have it's complications

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Look at the superstructure in that photo, damn-near all of it's radar array is gone along with what appears to be portions of the structure itself.
> One of the Neptunes had to have hit at or near to cause such damage.



Sure, it's holed upper-side and from the color of the smoke it's clear that there's some fire that hasn't met water.

I just wanted to point out that the stern damage bespeaks something very bad happening there. Missing plating, discoloration, and what seems to be structural damage to the hull.

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## ThomasP (Apr 18, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Apr 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sure, it's holed upper-side and from the color of the smoke it's clear that there's some fire that hasn't met water.
> 
> I just wanted to point out that the stern damage bespeaks something very bad happening there. Missing plating, discoloration, and what seems to be structural damage to the hull.


And the hangar door blown open, too.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> View attachment 665098


русский корабль, иди нахуй !

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## WARSPITER (Apr 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> In any event, 650-700 lbs of explosive coming aboard quickly is bad for your health. Given the Russian butthurt being shown, I'm in agreement that Ukrainian missiles docked it on the seabed.


Just to put that in perspective, the AP mk8 16" shell as used on the Iowa class had a bursting charge of 40.9 pounds.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Just to put that in perspective, the AP mk8 16" shell as used on the Iowa class had a bursting charge of 40.9 pounds.


Creates its own shrapnel as it plows through the armor. Doesn't need too much charge to spread it around once it's in. Guaranteed to set off any flammables or explodables inside.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Photo allegedly shows damaged Moskva. Take it at whatever value you place on Tweets:



A hit in a missile magazine? Doesn't look good for the bridge crew. Skipper was KIA, wasn't he? Not good for damage control management.


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## swampyankee (Apr 18, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> A hit in a missile magazine? Doesn't look good for the bridge crew. Skipper was KIA, wasn't he? Not good for damage control management.


A friend and former USN officer (he retired as the captain of a DDG) said he was told the Exocet destroyed the damage control center, making it more difficult to deal with the fires.

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## Denniss (Apr 18, 2022)

So the russians were not lying when they stated a fire aboard caused an ammo explosion. They just omitted the cause of the fire (did not self-ignite) and made up the storm as final cause of sinking.
The fire and smoke marks show a blast rocking through the whole ship indicating the crew on a weekend trip but not in a combat zone where you would have your watertight doors closed. With that fire still raging near/around the big missiles it just needs to get hot enought to set off their propellant and it's gone.

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## J_P_C (Apr 18, 2022)

something about quality of soviet/russian ship defense systems in compare to US made. When ive served in Polish Navy we have been donated by US two old OHP frigates which replaced ORP Warszawa - 1980 era mod Kashin class destroyer. Till this even very often my unit have been tasked with simulating sea skimmer attack on Warszawa with TS-11 advanced trainer jets. Basically take off from OPCE airfield and flying very low profile to the position of the ship trying to surprise it's AD systems. When OHPs being introduced my friend serving in CIC of the one of the OHPs said that this exercise has loosed all sense - "we have seen this airplane basically when they started taxing on the runway and keep tracking them independently to the best efforts of pilots" - polish coastal is quite flat - there is no terrain profile you may really hide, but russian radar was unable to detect the same airplane in the same training condition until pilot made error or crossed Hel peninsula line.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

A bit of video clearly take n at the same time as my prior post about the Moskva. It’s not really helpful but doesn’t loon fake to me:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And the hangar door blown open, too.



Or opened for ventilation?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Or opened for ventilation?



Or to get rid of the helo so there isn’t yet another flammable object onboard?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Or to get rid of the helo so there isn’t yet another flammable object onboard?



Right. I haven't had my coffee yet, but they don't seem damaged.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

Does the Ukrainian ability to hit the Russians at sea open up opportunities to send reinforcements or supplies to those besieged at the coastal Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol? Perhaps small boats could approach at night? Too bad the Ukrainians don’t have some makeshift fast attack boats armed with Neptunes.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

Another pic of the Moskva showing the damage a little better. Seems like the bridge and radar mast aren’t as badly hit as it may have seemed in the earlier photo:

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does the Ukrainian ability to hit the Russians at sea open up opportunities to send reinforcements or supplies to those besieged at the coastal Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol? Perhaps small boats could approach at night?


From what I gather - the Mariupol defenders are pinned down inland at a steel-plant - with no access to the harbor. And the Sea of Azov is entirely controlled by the Russians.
Even a kind of Commando raid might be possible, but I do not see how this could help the remaining defenders.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## Denniss (Apr 18, 2022)

I don't think they can help them much anymore, helo supply drops might not work anymore as well. a potent soviet commander would place a lot of radar and SAMs there to prevent that. 
If they wanna do a commando raid (and still have soldiers and boats) they should destroy multiple sections of the Kerch strait bridge. This would be another nice blow to russian pride and prevents easy troop/supply transports via Crimea.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just the geological situation would make the Crimea difdicult to retake, in light of the Ukraine military's numerical disadvantage. They would need to somehow bolster their naval assets to counter Russia's Black Sea fleet.


Black Sea Fleet has taken a smack. Now, what of the Russian situation in the Crimea if a Ukrainian offensive cuts the land bridge to the Donbass?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Black Sea Fleet has taken a smack. Now, what of the Russian situation in the Crimea if a Ukrainian offensive cuts the land bridge to the Donbass?



The greater threat is from the east. The Ukrainians should clear up the Donbas before thinking about ops in Crimea, imo.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Black Sea Fleet has taken a smack. Now, what of the Russian situation in the Crimea if a Ukrainian offensive cuts the land bridge to the Donbass?


I don't believe the Ukrainian army has the manpower for such an undertaking - they are and need to be focused towards the Donbas and a renewed attack towards Kiev by
the Russians.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

Lots of rocket/missile attacks by Russia against a range of Ukrainian targets overnight. The following reporting from the BBC uses a pic sourced from Reuters and appears somewhat confused. What the Reuters image cites as a Russian hypersonic ballistic missile looks like a bog-standard SS-21 to me. So either Reuters got it wrong, the BBC got it wrong, or Russia is claiming to use Iskander hypersonic missiles when they're actually using SS-21s (which are neither accurate or precise, nor are they hypersonic)....or Russia is using a mix of Iskanders and SS-21s:






Image caption: An unexploded short range hypersonic ballistic missile, similar to those Russia claims to have used on Monday (Source: Reuters/BBC)

_Russian state media is reporting that its military struck a total of 315 targets in Ukraine overnight, with several cities bombarded on Monday.
Russia's defence ministry said it had destroyed four arms and military equipment warehouses in Ukraine overnight with Iskander missiles, a short-range ballistic missile, the TASS news agency is reporting.
"High-precision air-launched missiles destroyed 16 Ukrainian military facilities during the night," Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.
He added that Russian air defence systems shot down two Ukrainian fighters.
The BBC has not been able to independently verify these claims._

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## WARSPITER (Apr 18, 2022)

If 315 targets were hit how many of these missiles does Russia have left. The sanctions seem to be affecting production in Russia 
so is there a problem there as well ?


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> If 315 targets were hit how many of these missiles does Russia have left. The sanctions seem to be affecting production in Russia
> so is there a problem there as well ?


Once there is, we will know - because either the Russians will pull back or take tactical nukes into consideration. - so as sarcastic as it sounds, let's hope they do not run out
of conventional ammo, whilst the Ukrainians are denying them any further geographical exploitation. The $$ and a disillusioned population are going to bite Putin sooner or later.
That is why stuffing the Ukraine with weapons IMO is crucial, whilst in the meantime forcing both sides to negotiate.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## wlewisiii (Apr 18, 2022)



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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> If 315 targets were hit how many of these missiles does Russia have left.


A "shotgun" attack to nail potential Zelensky hidey holes?


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## Glider (Apr 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> To paraphrase a reply to the tweet, wasn't there supposed to be bad weather?


I was just about to mention that. All that bad weather that so hindered the damage control and rescue activities

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## SaparotRob (Apr 18, 2022)

Perhaps the Black Sea was especially wet that day.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

Glider said:


> I was just about to mention that. All that bad weather that so hindered the damage control and rescue activities



In fairness, the statement about the ship becoming unbalanced is at least accurate.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In fairness, the statement about the ship becoming unbalanced is at least accurate.


From the picture, she's shipped a lot of water, and probably not far from capsize. Better get the towing crew off.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 18, 2022)

The Moskva - another victim of sudden catastrophic climate change.

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## swampyankee (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The Moskva - another victim of sudden catastrophic climate change.


Well, at least of the political climate.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

The Kremlin has (not) responded to the videos purportedly showing Moskva before she sank (reporting from BBC):
_
We reported earlier that pictures and a credible video have emerged showing damage to Russia's Moskva warship, which sank in the Black Sea last week.

The footage and two images all match the shape and design of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship, a BBC analysis shows.

The Kremlin has now responded.

"We did see the footage, but we can't say how authentic and true it is," President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Ukraine says it successfully struck the Moskva with two Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles, while Moscow alleges it was damaged after an explosion and subsequently sank because of "stormy seas"._


I love the "we can't say how authentic it is" comment. They're usually so quick to condemn "fake" videos like the ones of civilian bodies in Bucha...but now they can't say for certain that the video of Moskva is a fake? Hmmm....perhaps it's genuine? 

Hope the person who created the video doesn't end up joining the Moskva.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 18, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Well, at least of the political climate.



(wish I thought of that.)


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## GTX (Apr 18, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Apr 18, 2022)

They should have added a few 40 mm Bofors.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Kremlin has (not) responded to the videos purportedly showing Moskva before she sank....


This is not the first major Russian naval loss under Putin's government. Putin took a lot of unprecedented public abuse over the loss of the Kursk.

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## space dodo (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is not the first major Russian naval loss under Putin's government. Putin took a lot of unprecedented public abuse over the loss of the Kursk.


never forget the lives lost in that hell hole.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The Moskva - another victim of sudden catastrophic climate change


Well maybe it can contribute towards founding corral reefs in the Black sea.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 18, 2022)

I assume to the left and right of the Air Defense radar are fire hoses spraying water. What the heck is the one on the right spraying water on?


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

space dodo said:


> never forget the lives lost in that hell hole.


I'm thinking a lot of Russians haven't forgot either, and this latest loss, especially if the official cause is accidental rather than combat will annoy them again.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I assume to the left and right of the Air Defense radar are fire hoses spraying water. What the heck is the one on the right spraying water on?



I'm thinking they're outlets for the pumps that are trying to counter the flooding.

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## space dodo (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I'm thinking a lot of Russians haven't forgot either, and this latest loss, especially if the official cause is accidental rather than combat will annoy them again.


perhaps it will be sufficient for a coup ?


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

space dodo said:


> perhaps it will be sufficient for a coup ?


No, Russians always prefer a strong man autocrat for their government. If there is a coup it will be from another strong man wanting to take power.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 18, 2022)

space dodo said:


> perhaps it will be sufficient for a coup ?


Dream on! Short of another 1917 they haven't got it in them. The DQ (Desperation Quotient) is nowhere near that level yet.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I'm thinking a lot of Russians haven't forgot either, and this latest loss, especially if the official cause is accidental rather than combat will annoy them again.



Interesting "horns of a dilemma" problem there. Does the Kremlin blame an attack by Ukraine, which is a major shift in narrative and inspires criticism that the Black Sea Fleet' flagship couldn't defend itself....or do they stick with the accidental fire story which suggests incompetence within the Russian Navy.

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## GTX (Apr 18, 2022)

Interesting analysis, especially in regard to the information operations outside of the Western Nations:









Putin is trying to overwhelm Ukrainian forces — but his strategy goes beyond troops and air strikes


Over the weekend, the Russian military conducted a series of strategic strikes on targets across Ukraine. But Putin is looking for different ways to get on the offensive, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

_We're hearing more about the signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in the east of the country.

Earlier we told you about a social media post from Ukraine's Armed Forces Command.

Now Ukraine's National Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov has said Russia attempted to break through Ukranian defences "along almost the entire front line of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions".

"They began their attempt to start the active phase," he added, in comments that were televised.

He said Russian troops had captured the town of Kreminna, about 50km (31 miles) northeast of Kramatorsk, but Ukrainian troops were "holding the line" in the other areas.

Read more about the potential key battles in the east of Ukraine here._

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Dream on! Short of another 1917 they haven't got it in them. The DQ (Desperation Quotient) is nowhere near that level yet.


A public coup, agreed. But the generals might tire of being “heart attacked“ and see Putin’s failings in Ukraine as an opportunity.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 18, 2022)

Its a race to see who will kill the most Russian Generals, the Ukrainians or the Russians.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 18, 2022)

Being a Cold War Kid, I enjoyed that a bit more than I should.

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## fubar57 (Apr 18, 2022)

Back to the HMS Sheffield. Started reading the WIKI version and stopped after a few errors noted compared to this... In perspective: the loss of HMS Sheffield | Navy Lookout

Carry on...........


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 18, 2022)

Well, Google has chosen sides.









Google Denies Removing Blurring For Russia’s Military Sites - The Moscow Times


“We haven’t made any blurring changes to our satellite imagery in Russia,” said a Google spokesperson.




www.themoscowtimes.com

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## WARSPITER (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting "horns of a dilemma" problem there. Does the Kremlin blame an attack by Ukraine, which is a major shift in narrative and inspires criticism that the Black Sea Fleet' flagship couldn't defend itself....or do they stick with the accidental fire story which suggests incompetence within the Russian Navy.


Considering they have a modern tradition of naval incidents another self inflicted incident shouldn't raise too many eyebrows
(Kursk and Kuznetsov for instance).

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## buffnut453 (Apr 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Considering they have a modern tradition of naval incidents another self inflicted incident shouldn't raise too many eyebrows
> (Kursk and Kuznetsov for instance).



Not sure I agree. Kursk and Kuznetsov were peacetime accidents. Theoretically, Moskva was on a wartime footing. One would expect their damage control drills to be much more effectively practiced. 

For all Moscow's efforts to hide the realities of the war in Ukraine, it will all seep out eventually. There will simply be too many parents, siblings or spouses who lost family members and their neighbours will know them. It's like King Cnut trying to hold back the tide...it will come in. I just hope it happens soon and that there's a suitable reckoning for Putin and his cronies.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not sure I agree. Kursk and Kuznetsov were peacetime accidents. Theoretically, Moskva was on a wartime footing. One would expect their damage control drills to be much more effectively practiced.



As the US and Japanese navies both learnt, learning DC in wartime conditions is a bitch. That's certainly something you hammer out in peacetime -- one thing our navy has done very right. I'm sure the Russians will learn from this but I wonder how much will be put into place after the corruption has taken its slice.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 18, 2022)

If the Black Sea wasn't closed off, the Russians would have probably slipped one of their Slava class cruisers in from the Med, renamed it to the Moskva nd then issued a full photo/video propaganda campaign, stating it was never scratched.

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## Denniss (Apr 19, 2022)



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## ThomasP (Apr 19, 2022)

Although signals intel is still being analyzed, it appears that there is no indication that Moskva was aware she was under attack before the first missile hit. ELINT detected no sudden change in radar signatures (ie fire control radars or ECM systems coming online) nor were there any unusual communications between the Moskva and the other assets in the area (prior to the first impact) that would indicate a sudden awareness of incoming missiles. Apparently the missiles hit about 10 sec apart.

NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Although signals intel is still being analyzed, it appears that there is no indication that Moskva was aware she was under attack before the first missile hit. Elint detected no sudden change in radar signatures (ie fire control radars or ECM systems coming online) nor were there any unusual communications between the Moskva and the other assets in the area (prior to the first impact) that would indicate a sudden awareness of incoming missiles. Apparently the missiles hit about 10 sec apart.
> 
> NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.


If these two missiles were launched from this island, and the Moskva was 20-40mls away? seems to me that the Russian intel. simply wasn't aware about these missiles being
stationed there. otherwise it would have been total stupidity and neglect to sail that close by.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## GrauGeist (Apr 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Although signals intel is still being analyzed, it appears that there is no indication that Moskva was aware she was under attack before the first missile hit. Elint detected no sudden change in radar signatures (ie fire control radars or ECM systems coming online) nor were there any unusual communications between the Moskva and the other assets in the area (prior to the first impact) that would indicate a sudden awareness of incoming missiles. Apparently the missiles hit about 10 sec apart.
> 
> NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.


Over confidence mixed with lack of training, perhaps?

It seems to me, that with the loss of the Vasily Bykov, they would have become more wary of Ukrainian capabilities and placed their naval assets on a higher state of alert (meaning: hey, we're actually at war and need to act accordingly).

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## ThomasP (Apr 19, 2022)

The Ukrainian Neptune systems are all (I think) mobile truck or trailer mounted systems.

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## space dodo (Apr 19, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Dream on! Short of another 1917 they haven't got it in them. The DQ (Desperation Quotient) is nowhere near that level yet.


well there was that military coup against gorbachev during the collapse


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 19, 2022)

space dodo said:


> well there was that military coup against gorbachev during the collapse


yes, but it came down to replacing a "weak" man with a supposedly stronger man. or if you prefer a liberal person with a hardliner.

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## space dodo (Apr 19, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> yes, but it came down to replacing a "weak" man with a supposedly stronger man. or if you prefer a liberal person with a hardliner.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


its really surprising that gorbachev wasnt overthrown. Probably the best leader of the USSR.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 19, 2022)

space dodo said:


> its really surprising that gorbachev wasnt overthrown. Probably the best leader of the USSR.


He was, but came back.









Mikhail Gorbachev - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## WARSPITER (Apr 19, 2022)

It is interesting that the Sea of Azov is up to 135km wide when the Neptune missiles can reach 300km. Not a wonder 
the Russians want to get hold of the Southern Ukrainian coast.


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## Macandy (Apr 19, 2022)

Russia - Potemkin Armed Farces

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## Macandy (Apr 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not sure I agree. Kursk and Kuznetsov were peacetime accidents. Theoretically, Moskva was on a wartime footing. One would expect their damage control drills to be much more effectively practiced.
> 
> For all Moscow's efforts to hide the realities of the war in Ukraine, it will all seep out eventually. There will simply be too many parents, siblings or spouses who lost family members and their neighbours will know them. It's like King Cnut trying to hold back the tide...it will come in. I just hope it happens soon and that there's a suitable reckoning for Putin and his cronies.




What are these 'Damage control drills' of which you speak?

The current Russian Fleet is little advanced in basic damage control, firefighting and lifeboat drills over the Russian Fleet that was annihilated at Tsuhima


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 19, 2022)

It all comes down to training. I was reading the average Russian pilot gets almost half the annual flight time as their Western counterparts.

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## Macandy (Apr 19, 2022)

This photo shows you what a farce a Russian 'warship' is. This is the Moskvas S-300 missile silo.
A 'warship'? It's a fake, it's no better built than a cheap a merchant ship, with land based S-300 missiles wedged in. 
No armoured VLC cells able to contain a missile cook off, no water deluge systems, no high capacity sprinkler mains, no compartmentalisation. A huge missile silo filled with unprotected launch tubes that stretches from the upper deck to the keel and the engine room to the aft hanger






A 'warship\
'?

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## special ed (Apr 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Although signals intel is still being analyzed, it appears that there is no indication that Moskva was aware she was under attack before the first missile hit. Elint detected no sudden change in radar signatures (ie fire control radars or ECM systems coming online) nor were there any unusual communications between the Moskva and the other assets in the area (prior to the first impact) that would indicate a sudden awareness of incoming missiles. Apparently the missiles hit about 10 sec apart.
> 
> NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.


Ten seconds apart is just enough time to say, "What was that?" (In Russian)

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## JDCAVE (Apr 19, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> If these two missiles were launched from this island, and the Moskva was 20-40mls away? seems to me that the Russian intel. simply wasn't aware about these missiles being
> stationed there. otherwise it would have been total stupidity and neglect to sail that close by.
> 
> Regards
> Jagdflieger


What island?


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## Macandy (Apr 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Although signals intel is still being analyzed, it appears that there is no indication that Moskva was aware she was under attack before the first missile hit. Elint detected no sudden change in radar signatures (ie fire control radars or ECM systems coming online) nor were there any unusual communications between the Moskva and the other assets in the area (prior to the first impact) that would indicate a sudden awareness of incoming missiles. Apparently the missiles hit about 10 sec apart.
> 
> NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.




Neptune can be launched at a designated position as long as someone provides OTH targeting.
A TB2 will do, but there is also the ever present NATO Intel assets just south of Crimea in the Black Sea who will have been watching Moskva 24/7
Having flown passively to the pre designated kill box, it would only have required the missiles to to a quick pop up and scan to get a fix for their end run.
At that point, the only defence is your CWIS systems, and they were utterly useless on the night.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

More from the Kremlin....apparently they won't use nukes in Ukraine:
_
Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."_


Then again, I seem to recall the Kremlin saying that they weren't going to invade Ukraine, either!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 19, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> It all comes down to training. I was reading the average Russian pilot gets almost half the annual flight time as their Western counterparts.


We can rightfully scoff at the Russians incompetence in the air, on the ground and now sea. But they have the mass to roll right over eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians may have the motivation, training and western weapons, but they're facing over 120,000 Russian troops, Eastern Ukraine offensive - Wikipedia. I wish the Ukrainians well, but am not optimistic.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 19, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> What island?


Maybe I am wrong - I was under the impression that these missiles had been launched or guided from an island near Rybakivka
see map.

Regards
Jagdflieger


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## SaparotRob (Apr 19, 2022)

I think that’s Snake Island. You know, “ Russian warship, go f*** yourself “.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 19, 2022)

Macandy said:


> This photo shows you what a farce a Russian 'warship' is. This is the Moskvas S-300 missile silo.
> A 'warship'? It's a fake, it's no better built than a cheap a merchant ship, with land based S-300 missiles wedged in.
> No armoured VLC cells able to contain a missile cook off, no water deluge systems, no high capacity sprinkler mains, no compartmentalisation. A huge missile silo filled with unprotected launch tubes that stretches from the upper deck to the keel and the engine room to the aft hanger
> 
> ...


Why are all Russian missiles seemingly packed into sewer pipes?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think that’s Snake Island. You know, “ Russian warship, go f*** yourself “.


yes, that is probably the island I had in mind

Regards
Jagdflieger

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## J_P_C (Apr 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why are all Russian missiles seemingly packed into sewer pipes?
> 
> View attachment 665231


exactly the same reason why 90% of missiles using cold start system are packed in similar tubular containers - we are calling this ... physics.

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## space dodo (Apr 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We can rightfully scoff at the Russians incompetence in the air, on the ground and now sea. But they have the mass to roll right over eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians may have the motivation, training and western weapons, but they're facing over 120,000 Russian troops, Eastern Ukraine offensive - Wikipedia. I wish the Ukrainians well, but am not optimistic.


the russian army has always been a blunt instrument, always focusing on quantity over quality.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 19, 2022)

Major props to this man's honor:

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## space dodo (Apr 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Major props to this man's honor:



what a legend

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## wlewisiii (Apr 19, 2022)

This one is just as good but in a different kind of way...

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## wlewisiii (Apr 19, 2022)

OMFG! The Stupidity! IT BURNS!

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 19, 2022)

Ok, that has to be a joke.


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## Glider (Apr 19, 2022)

You have to give her full marks for imagination. I'm waiting for Harry Potter to be blamed

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## Jerad (Apr 19, 2022)

Videos from Mariupol from Azov battalion. First two appeared on YouTube today/yesterday, third
little over a week



Friendly fire grenade

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## Macandy (Apr 19, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> exactly the same reason why 90% of missiles using cold start system are packed in similar tubular containers - we are calling this ... physics.



However, we is the West have the good sense to pack even our cold start missiles in Silos capable of containing the motor cooking off, and a deluge system to stop the warhead cooking off.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

Macandy said:


> However, we is the West have the good sense to pack even our cold start missiles in Silos capable of containing the motor cooking off, and a deluge system to stop the warhead cooking off.



Alas, silos are apt to be not very mobile which makes them easy to target.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 19, 2022)

Personally, I don't want my silos wandering about my ship.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> OMFG! The Stupidity! IT BURNS!



The Turks have to tighten up their security of the Black Sea.

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## GTX (Apr 19, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

Update...unidentified allies have sent military aircraft to Ukraine:

_Ukraine's allies have provided Kyiv with additional military aircraft and aircraft parts to increase their fleet size and repair others in Ukraine's arsenal that were damaged, the US defence department said on Tuesday.

"They have received additional aircraft and aircraft parts to help them get more aircraft in the air," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a news briefing.

He added that Washington had not provided aircraft to Kyiv.

Earlier, US President Joe Biden held a video call with Western leaders about stepping up military support to Ukraine. They pledged to send more weapons to help the country defend itself against the renewed Russian offensive in the east._

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

And the UK is promising to provide Ukraine with Brimstone missiles:

_More now on what's been promised by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, following his video call with President Biden and others earlier.

Johnson was among the Western leaders who pledged to send more artillery to Ukraine.

Specifically, he said he planned to equip Kyiv with anti-ship missiles - including by mounting British Brimstone rockets to vehicles.

Reuters reports that Brimstones have previously been used by UK forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft. They're used against fast-moving land and sea targets._

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## SaparotRob (Apr 19, 2022)

I'm not familiar with the Brimstone missile but it sure has a descriptive name.

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## Glider (Apr 19, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Videos from Mariupol from Azov battalion. First two appeared on YouTube today/yesterday, third
> little over a week



Looking at the first video the Russians seem to be using impressed civilian vans and trucks. 

Also listening to the UK MOD briefing it looks as if the Ukraine Army are holding their own against the Russians:-

_Ukrainian forces have repelled "numerous attempted advances" by Russian forces on the Donbas line of control as Moscow's shelling and attacks in the area "continue to increase" on Tuesday, according to the latest British defense intelligence update._



> "Russia's ability to progress continues to be impacted by the environmental, logistical and technical challenges that have beset them so far, combined with the resilience of the highly-motivated Ukrainian armed forces," the UK Ministry of Defence tweeted.


_Russian forces have not been able to "stamp out resistance" in Mariupol, despite several "indiscriminate" attacks, which is "indicative of their failure to achieve their aims as quickly as they would like," it added._

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm not familiar with the Brimstone missile but it sure has a descriptive name.



It's a pretty good piece of kit. Made by MBDA:









Brimstone (missile) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Its "fire and forget" nature make it well-suited to "shoot and scoot" tactics. However, I'm a bit nervous about the idea of bolting an air-launched missile onto a ground vehicle. I guess the proof of the pudding will be in the number of targets successfully struck.

From the wiki article "In combat, Brimstone has demonstrated accuracy and reliability "both well above 90 percent" according to the MoD; Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton has said that 98.3% to 98.7% of Brimstone fired in Libya "did exactly what we expected"." Just to note that Steve Dalton was one of two CO's I had when I was on 13 Sqn...the other was Glenn Torpy who preceded Dalton as Chief of the Air Staff.

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## J_P_C (Apr 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's a pretty good piece of kit. Made by MBDA:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


it was tested in both vehicle and naval versions, mounted on tracked chassis was part of the proposal in vehicle missile tank destroyer competition for Polish land forces

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## GrauGeist (Apr 19, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> OMFG! The Stupidity! IT BURNS!



I've seen this idiot's FB page - the crap she posts is beyond the fringe of reality.

And there's actually people who beleive her fantasy-trippin' bullshit.

Penny Giorgalis Stafyla

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 19, 2022)

Second offensive (at least the initial stage) seems to be underway, with attacks southwards and southwest from Izyum, northwards from Donetsk City and West from Rubizhne. Total width of the front is reportedly 350 to 400 km, although obviously concentrated around a few key axes.

According to several reports, Russia is concentrating much greater numbers of fixed artillery assets to support these attacks than it did with its first offensive phase. And using far fewer PGMs.

What it has not done though is to substantially rest and refit troops that it has repositioned from the failed encirclement of Kyiv. Troops are still being fed piecemeal into the lines, rather than being reformed and brought fully back up to strength. Interesting choice - suggests to me that time is an important factor to the Russians.

I'd suggest significant Russian territorial advances are inevitable. I don't think we'll see the rapid but narrow advance with armour and light forces of the phase in February and early March. Instead, I suggest this will be much more of a steady grind, taking small chunks of territory, eliminating a portion of the defense, then resetting and going forward again. What will be most telling will the Russian capacity to sustain and support advances over the coming weeks. 

Ukrainian defense so far has appeared to be fairly flexible - willing to cede ground, provided it can do so at significant cost to the attackers. Ukrainian capability to disrupt Russian lines of supply will probably be just as vital as in the first phase, if not more so. A wide push like this could fall apart if one of the elements is stymied from lack of resupply.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Second offensive (at least the initial stage) seems to be underway, with attacks southwards and southwest from Izyum, northwards from Donetsk City and West from Rubizhne. Total width of the front is reportedly 350 to 400 km, although obviously concentrated around a few key axes.
> 
> According to several reports, Russia is concentrating much greater numbers of fixed artillery assets to support these attacks than it did with its first offensive phase. And using far fewer PGMs.
> 
> ...



Agree with all the above...that's a great summary of how things currently stand. I'd only add that Ukraine is stating that their Army has sprung counter-attacks, and they're claiming to have retaken the town of Maryinka near Donetsk. If so, I hope this further helps strengthen/bolster Ukrainian resolve and undermine Russian efforts to defeat the Ukrainian forces.

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 19, 2022)

I know that Ukraine will not consider it but wouldn't it be interesting if they could attack Russia to the North of Kyiv and gain some territory to use for swapping at the end of all this?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 19, 2022)

Ok...this one's a peach:
_
A Russian tycoon has blasted Moscow's "massacre" in Ukraine and called on the West to end the "insane war", in a profanity-laced Instagram post.

"I don't see a SINGLE beneficiary of this insane war! Innocent people and soldiers are dying," wrote Oleg Tinkov, 54, in Russian.

According to him, "90%" of his fellow Russians are also against this war. The remaining 10% "are morons" he said.

Tinkov, one of Russia's most well-known entrepreneurs, founded Tinkoff Bank in 2006.

On Instagram he added: "Waking up with a hangover, the generals realised that they have a shit army.

"And how will the army be good, if everything else in the country is shit and mired in nepotism, sycophancy and servility?"

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Tinkov's wealth had been estimated at more than $4.4bn (£3.4bn).

But he has since lost his billionaire status as shares in his bank have plummeted, Forbes reported last month.

In a statement, Tinkoff Bank said it would not comment on the "private opinion" of its founder, saying he no longer makes decisions for the brand._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 19, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Personally, I don't want my silos wandering about my ship.



We talking corn or wheat?

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## ThomasP (Apr 19, 2022)

I am thinking that Tinkov is not intending to go back to Russia anytime soon - at least not until Putin has been neutered or removed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok...this one's a peach:
> 
> _A Russian tycoon has blasted Moscow's "massacre" in Ukraine and called on the West to end the "insane war", in a profanity-laced Instagram post.
> 
> ...



Sanctions sure do suck, huh?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I am thinking that Tinkov is not intending to go back to Russia anytime soon - at least not until Putin has been neutered or removed.


Ahh, but Polonium tea can find you anywhere...

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 20, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Personally, I don't want my silos wandering about my ship.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> We talking corn or wheat?


*Information*!

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## tomo pauk (Apr 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm not familiar with the Brimstone missile but it sure has a descriptive name.



Anti-tank missile, uses the Hellfire parts as 'muscle', and British-made millimetric-wave radar as 'brain'. Using it as an ground-based anti-ship missile is doubious unless the enemy ship closes under 8+- km close to the launcher. 
Brtitish (and/or other countries') shipment of Exocets or Harpoons would've been a far greater threat to the Russian ships.

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## at6 (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I've seen this idiot's FB page - the crap she posts is beyond the fringe of reality.
> 
> And there's actually people who beleive her fantasy-trippin' bullshit.
> 
> Penny Giorgalis Stafyla





XBe02Drvr said:


> *Information*!


Alright. I had to look this b*tch up. Hope she chokes on a "bent carrot".

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## Macandy (Apr 20, 2022)

Brimstone can also be deployed from UAV's and Helicopters.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 20, 2022)

_
A senior U.S. defense official says the Pentagon is seeing "limited offensive operations" by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, which the U.S. views as a "prelude" for larger Russian attacks still to come.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine has begun, and Russian officials have made similar comments.

The U.S. official stressed he was not attempting to contradict these statements.

Rather, he says, the U.S. sees Russia doing two things: building up its forces in the east and conducting limited attacks in preparation for larger ones to come.

Russian forces are stepping up troop movements and artillery fire outside two eastern towns, Donetsk and Izium.

The U.S. believes Russia is trying to avoid the mistakes it made during its initial invasion, when it didn't have enough food, fuel and other supplies needed for an extended fight._

And in a related article:

_
Since the weekend, Ukraine's second-biggest city, Kharkiv, has been shelled incessantly by Russian forces. Officials say three civilians were killed on Tuesday.

The governor says that the shelling has intensified in the past few days and that residents should stay underground as much as possible.

Previous strikes on Kharkiv had been concentrated in the northern suburbs. But Russian troops are now lobbing shells and missiles closer to the center of the city.

Denis Parkhomenko, a 22-year-old programmer now living in a metro station near the center of the city, says that more than 50 days into this war, he can no longer tell whether things are getting better or worse.

"We just adapted," he says. "We just know what we must do."

Residents just know that when they hear the whizzing of the missiles and the pounding of the shells, they go underground._

Both may be read here.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _A senior U.S. defense official says the Pentagon is seeing "limited offensive operations" by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, which the U.S. views as a "prelude" for larger Russian attacks still to come.
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine has begun, and Russian officials have made similar comments.
> 
> ...


The bacon is for Patron.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 20, 2022)

Finally Canada.... sheesh...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 20, 2022)

_Senior Kremlin insiders in high-level posts in government and business believe Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a "catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years", ten sources told Bloomberg._

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## JDCAVE (Apr 20, 2022)

I found this interesting in the NYT:

“The Pentagon has urged manufacturers to ramp up production. So far, some 7,000 Javelins have been given to Ukraine, about a third of the total American inventory, which will probably take three or four years to replace, wrote Mark F. Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.”

More on this here:









Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks?


The United States has supplied Ukraine with thousands of Javelins, the anti-tank missiles that have become the iconic weapon of the war, but the U.S. inventory is dwindling. The United States has probably given about one-third of its stock to Ukraine. Thus, the United States is approaching the...




www.csis.org

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 20, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I found this interesting in the NYT:
> 
> “The Pentagon has urged manufacturers to ramp up production. So far, some 7,000 Javelins have been given to Ukraine, about a third of the total American inventory, which will probably take three or four years to replace, wrote Mark F. Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.”
> 
> ...


Interesting article, seen similar posted on other outlets. What I find funny is this;

"The Pentagon has urged manufacturers to ramp up production."

Like the manufacturer is going to start pumping these items out without funding!

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

Something that comes to mind when I read articals about the "U.S. is running out of (insert name of weapon here)".

The U.S. isn't going to deplete it's full inventory of any particular type of weapon and many of the stocks being supplied to the Ukraine are most likely older inventory (rotating stock).

Add to that, all the combined weapon systems being provided to the Ukraine from other nations will mean that no one will run their inventory below sustainable numbers.

However, the one thing that's not being mentioned, is how much Russia has used so far versus their inventory numbers.
They have been pounding Ukraine cities and other targets for nearly two months with missiles, rockets and artillery - how is their inventory holding up?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, the one thing that's not being mentioned, is how much Russia has used so far versus their inventory numbers.
> They have been pounding Ukraine cities and other targets for nearly two months with missiles, rockets and artillery - how is their inventory holding up?



I guess the answer rather depends on how much we believe any numbers emerging from Moscow. Serendipitously, this was just posted by the BBC:

_Russia's Ministry of Defence claims its forces have hit 1,053 Ukrainian military facilities overnight.

In a Telegram update this morning, the defence ministry said it had destroyed 106 artillery firing positions and shot down six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.

It said its forces hit 73 military assets of Ukraine, among them:_

_Four command posts_
_57 areas of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment_
_Seven strong points and four ammunition depots_
_Six tanks and nine armoured vehicles and_
_One Msta-B howitzer battery weapon_
_It added that a high-precision missile strike killed up to 40 Ukrainian military personnel and destroyed seven military equipment units.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation said it continues "the special military operation in Ukraine"._


Now I'm definitely not a maths whiz but, by my calculations, they specifically identified a total of 192 items down to individual pieces of equipment. So what on earth were the "1,053 military facilities" that they claim were struck. That sounds like an awful lot of ammo going downrange for precious few tangible results.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

Russian math - take the total number, divide by three.
Then take that number and divide by half.
That is the "rounded up number" that *may* be close to factual.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russian math - take the total number, divide by three.
> Then take that number and divide by half.
> That is the "rounded up number" that *may* be close to factual.



I think that works in reverse too, for example to calculate real numbers the Russians are trying to hide. If you take the approx 1500 military casualties that they acknowledged a few weeks ago, double it and then triple that number you get....drum roll, please....9,000 which falls right into the estimates Western nations were applying at the time (IIRC 7,000-11,000).

You're a scary man, GrauGeist!

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## Crimea_River (Apr 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Finally Canada.... sheesh...




You make it sound like we've done nothing until now. This, according to a 6 week old article, is what we had committed by early March.


 4,500 M72 rocket launchers and up to 7,500 hand grenades;
 $1 million towards the purchase of high-resolution modern satellite imagery;
 100 Carl-Gustaf M2 anti-tank weapons system launchers and 2,000 rounds of ammunition;
 1,600 fragmentation vests and 400,000 individual meal packs;
 $25 million in helmets, body armour, gas masks, and night vision gear; and
 Two C-130J tactical airlift aircraft and a team of 40-50 personnel to deliver aid and support.
Yes, these commitments are small in the grand scheme of things and I don't know what else has been committed since. However, I am aware that an additional $500 million has been budgeted for ongoing aid.

I'm not proud of our numbers and, like you, wish we could do more and hope that we will. My concern here is that, though Canada already has a deserved reputation for being a laggard when it comes to military spending, we don't need to further undermine this perception by inferring that we've been sitting on our hands and doing nothing in this fight.

Let's applaud the commitment to send the artillery and keep our fingers crossed that our red tape doesn't prevent it from being loaded on to our C-17s starting today.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 20, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I'm not proud of our numbers and, like you, wish we could do more and hope that we will. My concern here is that, though Canada already has a deserved reputation for being a laggard when it comes to military spending, we don't need to further undermine this perception by inferring that we've been sitting on our hands and doing nothing in this fight.
> 
> Let's applaud the commitment to send the artillery and keep our fingers crossed that our red tape doesn't prevent it from being loaded on to our C-17s starting today.


Fair point. It's just the artillery could have been loaded onto a pair of CC-177s a month ago. What are those two C-130Js doing? They're short ranged transports.

But if anyone is a laggard it's not us, it's the Germans. They're sending more aid to Russia through continued oil/gas purchases than they're sending to the Ukrainians.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

The bacon is for the "back bacon" in those meals.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

I read an article that said basically the equipment is getting to western Ukraine but that there is a logistical logjam that is preventing the equipment from getting to the front. Anyone hear about it?


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## WARSPITER (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, the one thing that's not being mentioned, is how much Russia has used so far versus their inventory numbers.
> They have been pounding Ukraine cities and other targets for nearly two months with missiles, rockets and artillery - how is their inventory holding up?


This point is very important and is what many including myself have been wondering about for a while.
Given the missile and other ordnance use in Syria coupled with current use what is the capacity for the Russian military industry to replace
these items ? 

Sanctions are already hitting Russian industries with the tank industry already grinding to a halt.

Parts for normal maintenance of vehicles and aircraft also come to mind let alone the need for equipment repairs/replacements due to war damage.

The expenditure in ammunition sounds like it is high and can it be sustained given the Russian lack of ability to fund it.

Ukraine has been given an ongoing lifeline in equipment they can use while their opposition may well be unable to continue current 'spending'
levels into even the near future.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 20, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The expenditure in ammunition sounds like it is high and can it be sustained given the Russian lack of ability to fund it.



Not only is the ammo expenditure high, it's also not being used wisely from a military objectives perspective. Using munitions just to flatten a town isn't going to advance any realistic military objectives. This comes back, yet again, to the apparently poor identification of aims for this war. If you have poor aims, then your objectives won't be realistic/achievable. You then expend weapons that don't advance your cause. We should not forget that it's the Ukrainian civilians who are paying the price for that lack of effective military thought.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 20, 2022)

I wonder if they are trading oil for ammo with China

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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I wonder if they are trading oil for ammo with China


Definitely trading places as a world power.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 20, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Given the missile and other ordnance use in Syria coupled with current use what is the capacity for the Russian military industry to replace these items ?


If there was ever a moment for the Belarusian people to revolt against their autocratic government it is now.









In ‘land of partisans,’ Belarus activists fight their government’s support of Russian war - National | Globalnews.ca


As well as tracking Russian army movements, the anti-war movement has conducted cyberattacks and joined an all-Belarusian battalion fighting in Ukraine.




globalnews.ca





And now's the time for Georgia to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia can't be in all places.



vikingBerserker said:


> I wonder if they are trading oil for ammo with China


China is very pragmatic and shrewd. If they're buying Russian oil it will be at a deep discount with many strings attached.



SaparotRob said:


> Definitely trading places as a world power.


Russia's GDP is smaller than Canada and Italy's. List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia Having nukes does not make you a world power.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Definitely trading places as a world power.



So which one's the down-and-out pretending to be a yuppie and which one's the yuppie pretending to be a deadbeat? 







And, more importantly, who are the Machiavellian characters pulling the strings in the background?






Enquiring minds want to know!

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 20, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> I know that Ukraine will not consider it but wouldn't it be interesting if they could attack Russia to the North of Kyiv and gain some territory to use for swapping at the end of all this?


Interesting yes, but probably counter productive.

It will also be interesting that Moldavia and Ukraine should consider taking on the Russian backed separatists in transnistria and oust the Russian troops there. It is estimated that 1000-2000 Russian troops are stationed there. While Moldavia failed to take control of Transnistria in the 90's because it is really easy to defend across the Dniester river, there is no possible defense if attacked from the Ukrainian side.
To make it more interesting, once Transnistria is handled back to Moldavia, Moldavia and Romania should consider a fast reunification (yes there is some support for reunification), leaving Transnistria in EU and NATO.

Speaking of interesting what-ifs, what about Poland and Lithuania taking over Kaliningrad? I reckon that its quite an expeditive solution to the Kaliningrad question.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 20, 2022)

Germany to Stop Russian Oil Imports by Year End


Germany will cut off Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, a move that comes as European leaders discuss new energy sanctions against Russian oil over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, reports The National Review.




www.newsmax.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting yes, but probably counter productive.
> 
> It will also be interesting that Moldavia and Ukraine should consider taking on the Russian backed separatists in transnistria and oust the Russian troops there. It is estimated that 1000-2000 Russian troops are stationed there. While Moldavia failed to take control of Transnistria in the 90's because it is really easy to defend across the Dniester river, there is no possible defense if attacked from the Ukrainian side.
> To make it more interesting, once Transnistria is handled back to Moldavia, Moldavia and Romania should consider a fast reunification (yes there is some support for reunification), leaving Transnistria in EU and NATO.
> ...


The Ukraine could take Transneistra without issue and handing it over to Moldova for a fast-track to reunification with Romania would work.

But Poland and/or any Baltic States try to take Kaliningrad and Russia would claim NATO aggression - even if they acted as seperate entities.

What would work at this point, would be if Georgia moved quickly to retake territory captured by Russia in 2008.
It would divert Russian attention from Ukraine operations as well as catching Russian forces at a time when manpower and equipment are stretched thin.

And wishful thinking here, but if Georgia did that, then the door would be open for Japan to retake territory seized at the close of WWII, opening a three-front war for Russia.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Germany to Stop Russian Oil Imports by Year End
> 
> 
> Germany will cut off Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, a move that comes as European leaders discuss new energy sanctions against Russian oil over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, reports The National Review.
> ...


Wow.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 20, 2022)

Isn't Kaliningrad pretty much ethnically Russian by now? Interesting to see what results a non-binding referendum would produce.


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine could take Transneistra without issue and handing it over to Moldova for a fast-track to reunification with Romania would work.
> 
> But Poland and/or any Baltic States try to take Kaliningrad and Russia would claim NATO aggression - even if they acted as seperate entities.
> 
> ...


That wouldn't trigger a M. A. D. response.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Isn't Kaliningrad pretty much ethnically Russian by now? Interesting to see what results a non-binding referendum would produce.


Leave Kaliningrad alone. That little rump of the former USSR is a NATO-surrounded liability and huge expense for Russia, not a strategic benefit. I imagine Russian government accountants rue the the day they thought of keeping that now indefeasible and strategically useless bit of the former German empire and lately Poland.

Truman and Churchill's sign off at the Potsdam Conference to turn over Königsberg to the USSR is yet another betrayal of Poland. It's amazing that so many Poles moved to Britain when the latter just kept kicking them.

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## space dodo (Apr 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> View attachment 665247


i should be way to young for this joke, but some how i understand the reference.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 20, 2022)

It was a pretty cool movie

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## wlewisiii (Apr 20, 2022)

I thought about posting this in the Jokes area but it really belongs here:



> Putin is dead and after burning in hell for a time, they decide to release him and he comes back to Earth. He finds himself on a street in Moscow and walks into a bar. He orders a vodka and asks the bartender a question: "Does Crimea still belong to us?" "Yes," the bartender answers. "How about Donbas, Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine?" "All still part of Russia," the bartender answers. Satisfied, Putin finishes his drink and he asks the bartender, "How much do I owe you?" The bartender says, "Five euros."

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> That wouldn't trigger a M. A. D. response.


Doubtful - not a single nation reclaiming their land has anything to do with NATO.

All territory the Russians would deem "under attack" are areas they hold under military occupation.

Not one of the countries have nuclear arms.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 20, 2022)

_MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian military said Wednesday it successfully performed the first test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon President Vladimir Putin said would make the West "think twice" before harboring any aggressive intentions against Russia.

The test launch of the Sarmat missile comes amid soaring tensions between Moscow and the West over the Russian military action in Ukraine and underlines the Kremlin's emphasis on the country's nuclear forces.

[...]

Speaking to senior officials, Putin hailed the Sarmat launch, claiming that the new missile has no foreign analogues and is capable of penetrating any prospective missile defense.

"This really unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and make those, who in the heat of frantic aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country, think twice," Putin said._









Russia test-fires new intercontinental ballistic missile


MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian military said Wednesday it successfully performed the first test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon President Vladimir Putin said would make the West “think twice” before harboring any aggressive intentions against Russia.




apnews.com





Once more, Putin chooses to play the victim even as he tries a bully-tactic. It's like the guy doesn't have any other play in his playbook. It's like he's taking lessons from Kim Jong-Un.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Definitely trading places as a world power.



Russia's star is on the wane, and Putin knows it. If they didn't have nukes, nobody would take them seriously.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 20, 2022)

Narcissistic people seem to genuinely feel like they're being horribly mistreated when people respond to their general prickishness in the predictable way.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

Yeah, so the Russians just tested a "new" secret scary missile.

Translated from Russian propaganda speak:
"We have this prototype missile that was tested successfully.
It's not actually different than the others, except we say it's special.
We can now plan on producing it. We don't have any others at the moment, but the world should still be afraid."

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## WARSPITER (Apr 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Yeah, so the Russians just tested a "new" secret scary missile.
> 
> Translated from Russian propaganda speak:
> "We have this prototype missile that was tested successfully.
> ...


Exactly.

"We will produce hundreds in the next few days even though we haven't got the production or economic capability at the moment
and we will park them next to the 2300 Armarta tanks we were going to make by 2021 but we've only managed about 30 but that's
ok because we are upgrading the new tank to be hypersonic which will mean they can then be parked next to the new version of
the Moskva which will be cleverly pre sunk which will cut costs on propulsion and weapon systems (that's how we get around sanctions)......."

"Oh, and why is it that lately every time I go into any room there is an Elephant in there that tries to take a dump on me ?"

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## GrauGeist (Apr 20, 2022)

In Days of Olde, when one rattled their sabre, there was actually a blade attached to the hilt...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 20, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Narcissistic people seem to genuinely feel like they're being horribly mistreated when people respond to their general prickishness in the predictable way.



... or they climb up on the cross in attempt to explain their prickishness ... choose your explanation.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 20, 2022)

Because they care about themselves, and don't care about others? Basically, they only see that they're being treated so unfairly.

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## ThomasP (Apr 20, 2022)

Some of you probably saw this if you checked out one of the member's post/link up-thread, but for those of you who did not . . .







We can only hope.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting yes, but probably counter productive.
> 
> It will also be interesting that Moldavia and Ukraine should consider taking on the Russian backed separatists in transnistria and oust the Russian troops there. It is estimated that 1000-2000 Russian troops are stationed there. While Moldavia failed to take control of Transnistria in the 90's because it is really easy to defend across the Dniester river, there is no possible defense if attacked from the Ukrainian side.
> To make it more interesting, once Transnistria is handled back to Moldavia, Moldavia and Romania should consider a fast reunification (yes there is some support for reunification), leaving Transnistria in EU and NATO.
> ...



I like the Moldova/Transnistria idea, and I'd also like to see Georgia going on the offensive. Hitting back while Moscow is distracted and can't adequately respond is a great way to keep Putin in his place, seize some of the initiative, and hopefully help deter him from similar actions in the future (although I accept the latter is naiively optimistic).

K-grad is off the table, IMHO. It will involve NATO members acting which will give Putin the opportunity to claim NATO is attacking. Definitely not what we want to be doing right now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Exactly.
> 
> "We will produce hundreds in the next few days even though we haven't got the production or economic capability at the moment
> and we will park them next to the 2300 Armarta tanks we were going to make by 2021 but we've only managed about 30 but that's
> ...



The Potemkin military.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 21, 2022)

About the new ukrainian jet fighters. Everybody says that they are from ukrainian stocks refurbished with parts that came with US aid.

True or ruse to disguise that they came from NATO countries?









No, Additional Fighter Jets Haven't Been Delivered To Ukraine


The Pentagon says Ukraine has more aircraft flying now than it did two weeks ago, but it's not because they got new jets.




www.thedrive.com

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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

I'm sure the west will be obscufating some information regarding supplies to the Ukraine.

Personally, this is why I would never be a good politician, because I would get on the phone to Putin an tell him directly:
"Hey, I'm sending jets, tanks, artillery and a f**k ton of Stingers to bust your ass.
Don't like that? Then let's meet up and you can pull off your shirt and come at me, bro..."

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## pgeno71 (Apr 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure the west will be obscufating some information regarding supplies to the Ukraine.
> 
> Personally, this is why I would never be a good politician, because I would get on the phone to Putin an tell him directly:
> "Hey, I'm sending jets, tanks, artillery and a f**k ton of Stingers to bust your ass.
> Don't like that? Then let's meet up and you can pull off your shirt and come at me, bro..."


No, you would not be a good politician, but you would be a good statesman.

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## at6 (Apr 21, 2022)

Some how I'm beginning to think that Putin spent too much time playing with himself as a kid. They used to tell us we'd go blind or insane if we did it. He didn't go blind but he is insane.

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## MiTasol (Apr 21, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> You make it sound like we've done nothing until now. This, according to a 6 week old article, is what we had committed by early March.
> 
> 
> 4,500 M72 rocket launchers and up to 7,500 hand grenades;
> ...



And I suspect that if you did a dollars per head of population calculation Canada would be much closer to the top than some other countries that are physically much closer to the conflict. That said some of those need to maintain enough to repel boarders in the near future but some relatively far from the conflict but are not pulling their weight if the press are correct

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 21, 2022)

I know everyone's having fun mocking Putin and the Russian performance in this war, but let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment (I went to a Jesuit school, it's what we do).

Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.

Russia has lots of things going for it. They've got air supremacy (although not full dominance), artillery supremacy and significant advantages over the Ukrainians in terms of heavy ground forces - both in terms of numbers, quality and overall mobility. Russia can bring substantially more firepower to any one point at any one time than their opponents can, and in war that matters

They've also got advantages in terms of strategic mobility. Russia basically has control of when and where it attacks. If the Russian Army does encounter strong opposition, it can re-position/reset its axes of advance, or concentrate forces on completely a different axis.

Most of Ukraine's manpower is relatively static/foot mobile and comprised of lightly armed reservists. These troops work well when defending fixed positions against other light forces and 'Thunder Run' style rapid attacks. I question their ability to survive and contribute meaningfully on a battlefield being prepared by artillery and against an opponent using proper combined arms tactics with heavy forces.

Russia and it's leaders - both political and military - aren't dumb (no matter how we might like to deride them). It's armed forces got a rude shock in the initial phase, because their perception of reality and the actual situation on the ground were very different.

I suspect though that they have now had time to adjust and figure some things out. Like logistics. And communications. And SEAD.

Worst case for me is the Russia's second phase operation fixes some of Ukraine's heavy regular army units in place the East of the country, and then manages to destroy them with overwhelming firepower. Then they use these openings in the front to break into open territory where they're opposed by light/reserve/less mobile forces. There's little to stop them completing a major encirclement, with forces linking up from the north and south.

Surviving Ukrainian troops are forced to withdraw westward or are trapped in a pocket. Either way, very heavy losses ensue - including most of Ukraine's heavy equipment and regular army troops. Ukrainian general staff is forced to give up on a wide front in eastern Ukraine, pulling back to the northwest to defend a shorter line (maybe Dnipro-Kharkiv, or Kremenchuk-Poltava-Kharkiv if things really go bad).

Russia ends up controlling everything on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River up to Dnipro City itself and then a large chunk of the country immediately north of that all the way up to the Russian border. It then halts its advance at whatever new defensive line the Ukrainians manage to establish, settles into a defensive posture, declares a 'mission accomplished' with a parade through Red Square and calls for a general cease fire.

Ukrainians become disenchanted with their government after losing the war, blame Zelensky for getting them into something they could never win and vote him out a few years later. In his place is a Russian-friendly candidate who promises to restore good relations with Russia in exchange for some territorial adjustments. He signs a peace treaty, ceding control of certain territories to Russia on the promise of 'free and fair' referendums on whether they want to be part of Russia or not.

End result, Russia acquires ~20-25% of Ukranian territory, controls 80% of its access to the Black Sea and ends up with four or five cities with populations of more than 250,000.

Here endeth the fantasy. Which - in my own not so modest opinion - is not actually that fantastical.

(Of course, I'm ignoring the wider economic and geostrategic issues here. Just assume that Russia's economy is f*cked but it can still win the war using available reserves)

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## WARSPITER (Apr 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> Some how I'm beginning to think that Putin spent too much time playing with himself as a kid. They used to tell us we'd go blind or insane if we did it. He didn't go blind but he is insane.


He actually went insane looking for it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I know everyone's having fun mocking Putin and the Russian performance in this war, but let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment (I went to a Jesuit school, it's what we do).
> 
> Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.
> 
> ...



A couple of things to remember:

1) While Russia may have strategic mobility, Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines, making shifting of forces to critical sectors much easier.

2) We don't know if Russia has air supremacy yet, because the Russians don't seem to want to use airpower much at all.

3) A good proportion of the Russian troops for the upcoming offensive are the same troops who got defeated in front of Kyiv, and the remnants thrown together into ad hoc units. Scratch troops do not good stormtroopers make.

4) Even if the Russians do destroy the mass of the Ukrainian army in the field, after the atrocities we've all seen the Russians are going to face an insurgency that will make Afghanistan look like a garden party.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

Ukraine needs to have an offensive of their own in the works, ideally to Mariupol, even after its fall so to cut off the land bridge. You don’t win wars playing defence.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Because they care about themselves, and don't care about others? Basically, they only see that they're being treated so unfairly.


... or, as I alluded to, they use the "unfairness" ploy in order to garner sympathy.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine needs to have an offensive of their own in the works, ideally to Mariupol, even after its fall so to cut off the land bridge. You don’t win wars playing defence.



With what?

And if defense doesn't win wars, how to explain the Taliban?

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## WARSPITER (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> With what?
> 
> And if defense doesn't win wars, how to explain the Taliban?


Or the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic......

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> With what?
> 
> And if defense doesn't win wars, how to explain the Taliban?


The Taliban ran an excellent offensive, waiting until the exhausted US and Allies fled the field and then marched into Kabul and overwhelmed the terrified defenders, who also fled. It’s an offensive to mark the ages. 2021 Taliban offensive - Wikipedia The Ukrainians should be so lucky.

As for with what, I wrote that the Ukranians need to have an offensive in the works. They can launch it in May or June when much of the heaviest weaponry from the West is in place, but they‘d better be preparing to retake lost territory. If Ukraine settles for a defensive strategy they’ll lose a lot of territory in the peace.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Or the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic......


Neither of those won WW2, but they did play a crucial role in providing and protecting both the place and the means for the Allies to go on the offensive, land troops in Europe and win the war (with Russia’s help). Ukraine‘s Battle of Britain was their successful defence of Kyiv, and their Battle of the Atlantic is their success (so far) in keeping the supply routes to Eastern Ukraine for the West’s weapons open. But those defensive and logistical victories won’t win back eastern Ukraine nor win the war. You must go on the offensive and use your experience and preparation gained while on the defence to now attack and destroy the enemy and retake lost territory. That’s the difference between surviving a war and winning it.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 21, 2022)

Ukraine has to time this right though with offensive action being targeted at weak points as they arise.

A general offensive would be playing into Russian hands.

As has been noted already the ongoing ability of Russian forces will depend on supply and replacement which
they having trouble with. Sanctions are the heaviest I've seen and this is already starting to bite.

This is going to be a matter of patience followed by throwing some good punches at the right times.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Taliban ran an excellent offensive, waiting until the exhausted US and Allies fled the field and then marched into Kabul and overwhelmed the terrified defenders, who also fled. It’s an offensive to mark the ages. 2021 Taliban offensive - Wikipedia The Ukrainians should be so lucky.



So what you're saying is that playing defense for twenty years set up the conditions for their victory. Got it.

Bear in mind that the main reason why they won was that we'd already decided we were tired of spending blood and money there. Their final offensive was simply the period at the end of a long, run-on sentence.



Admiral Beez said:


> As for with what, I wrote that the Ukranians need to have an offensive in the works. They can launch it in May or June when much of the heaviest weaponry from the West is in place, but they‘d better be preparing to retake lost territory. If Ukraine settles for a defensive strategy they’ll lose a lot of territory in the peace.



Little of that donated weaponry is offensive, though. Towed howitzers, Javelins, Stingers, but no airplanes and precious few tanks. Not much transport for their infantry, either.

So again I ask: Go on the offensive _with what_? What capabilities do you think they can use to carry forward a successful offensive?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Ukraine has to time this right though with offensive action being targeted at weak points as they arise.


Agreed. Much of the Russian army has its back to Ukraine as they deal with Mariupol. If, and and a big if, the Ukrainians have the forces now is a good a chance to hit the Russians, since once Mariupol is defeated the Russians will turn around and concentrate their forces on the offensive. If the Ukrainians do not have the forces now for an offensive, they need to whittle down the Russians, as you suggest and prepare to hit them when the latter are weakest.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> So again I ask: Go on the offensive _with what_? What capabilities do you think they can use to carry forward a successful offensive?



On the mark i think. Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the an ukraine offensive.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> On the mark i think. Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the a ukraine offensive.


That is the best strategy for the long term.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> That is the best strategy for the long term.



Entirely agree. If you’re planning your defense correctly, you can select the ground where you want to fight. That was as true today as it was at Gettysburg. Offensives can be very expensive whereas an effective, well planned defence is less costly in terms of losses…and Ukraine needs to carefully husband it’s military forces.

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## JDCAVE (Apr 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Or the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic......


I don’t think the Battle of the Atlantic should be categorized as “Defensive”. The air campaign against the U-boats was an offensive strategy.

Jim


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## Crimea_River (Apr 21, 2022)

I can see the next Russian offensive bypassing the major cities in the east and advancing all the way to the Dnieper. The besieged cities will fight, of course but it will be a matter of time before ammo runs out and no western resupply, short of air-drops, will be possible.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the a ukraine offensive.


NATO consists of fickle, pragmatic countries. Their united position will eventually falter, even now the German unions are protesting Berlin's plan to stop buying Russian oil by end of 2022. Pro-Russian Greeks are protesting on the streets that the sanctions and anti-Russian action are impacting tourism. Bulgarians with Russian flags protested a recent NATO visit. I have little faith that the Italians, French, Bulgarians, etc. have the long-term staying power to keep up their opposition to Russia. Once Putin takes the Donbass and the land bridge to Crimea he may very well declare a unilateral ceasefire and call for negotiations with Kyiv. The Ukrainians will have to attend the talks, and stand down their own troops while they take place. At that point, the weaker-minded/spined Euros will be calling for peace and pressuring Zelensky to come to terms. If this happens, Ukraine will never regain those territories.

So, a defensive war is good for NATO, but not necessarily for Ukraine. And the Ukrainians know it, which is why they're asking for offensive weapons, tanks, APCs and IFVs, mobile artillery including MRLS like the HIMARS, strike aircraft, mobile long range SAMs, etc. in addition to the more defensive man portable missiles and small arms. They know that the window for offensive action before any ceasefire and forced negotiations is closing.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 21, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> I don’t think the Battle of the Atlantic should be categorized as “Defensive”. The air campaign against the U-boats was an offensive strategy.
> 
> Jim


That came later after the defence stage where air cover was not complete. At that stage the U-boats were on the offensive.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

Ukraine forces stalled the initial Russian offensive with defense and counter-attack tactics.

They're doing a remarkable job with what they have and are using their home-turf knowledge to great advantage.

This has become a war of attrition and the Ukrainians are bleeding the Russians beyond sustainable levels.

In WWII, the Soviets did the same thing at Stalingrad. They forced the Germans to commit and expend unsustainable levels of men and material.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ukraine forces stalled the initial Russian offensive with defense and counter-attack tactics.
> 
> They're doing a remarkable job with what they have and are using their home-turf knowledge to great advantage.
> 
> ...


And this time, the Soviets don’t have lend lease. The other guy does.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And this time, the Soviets don’t have lend lease. The other guy does.


Fortunately for the Ukraine, the Russian leadership doesn't seem to have read any WWII history books.

Because everything the Russians are doing right now, is pretty much out of the Unternehmen Barbarossa play book.

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## J_P_C (Apr 21, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I know everyone's having fun mocking Putin and the Russian performance in this war, but let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment (I went to a Jesuit school, it's what we do).
> 
> Russia has a real chance of victory in this second phase. They've paused major operations for several weeks, rested and repositioned forces from northern Ukraine and are preparing the ground for a major wide-front invasion with multiple prongs. The stage is set for them and they have the initiative.
> 
> ...


sorry to say so but you are wrong at many points as other peoples who are analysing this war just considering numbers


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## JDCAVE (Apr 21, 2022)

The loss of he Moskova might signal the beginning of discontent in Russia.









With sunken warship, Russian disinformation faces a test.


Families of missing crew members say the Russian authorities are giving them the runaround after a flagship sank last week in the Black Sea.




www.nytimes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> The loss of he Moskova might signal the beginning of discontent in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Memories of the Kursk and Putin's neglect of families. The video of the sailor's mother being drugged and dragged out of the press conference was horrible.









The Kursk Catastrophe, A Lesson For Putin, Is Fading From Russia’s Attention 20 Years Later


In August 2000, the nuclear submarine Kursk sank during naval exercises on the Barents Sea, killing all 118 sailors in an incident that would prove a turning point for Russian society and for the political system that President Vladimir Putin has shaped in the two decades since.




www.rferl.org

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## tomo pauk (Apr 21, 2022)

Lovely:



Also this:

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Lovely:
> 
> 
> 
> Also this:



I sometimes think hitting BMPs is a waste of a ATGW, unless the vehicle is carrying troops. The Russians have thousands of BMPs. Better to save your powder and hit the tanks, mobile artillery and BMPs on the move that suggest they're full of troops.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 21, 2022)

BMPs are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’ll get.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 21, 2022)

Russia claims to have 'liberated' Mariupol after weeks of bombardment


Russian officials claimed Thursday that the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine had come under their control. The besieged city has been reduced to rubble since the launch of the invasion on Feb. 24 as Russian forces attempted to capture the city for eight weeks.




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 21, 2022)

Remember Mariupol!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I can see the next Russian offensive bypassing the major cities in the east and advancing all the way to the Dnieper. The besieged cities will fight, of course but it will be a matter of time before ammo runs out and no western resupply, short of air-drops, will be possible.



That's if their logistics can support cross-country mobility. I've read articles reporting that the logistics issues extend behind the Russian frontier as well -- though that was a couple of weeks ago and who knows if the problem has been ironed out.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 21, 2022)

Some interesting history and analysis. Ian has a very strong connection with the Finns and has studied their history in depth.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That's if their logistics can support cross-country mobility. I've read articles reporting that the logistics issues extend behind the Russian frontier as well -- though that was a couple of weeks ago and who knows if the problem has been ironed out.



Yeah…I’d be prioritizing trucks over BMPs or tanks, although there will be situations where armour has to be engaged. However, you don’t need expensive missiles to take out trucks. Keep hammering the logistics and any attack will falter. Think Battle of the Bulge….but in Ukraine.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 21, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

My thoughts.
In mobile wars logitics is the key factor. Russia did not have that in order. And that was for a very short war. Now going into offensive in week 9 or 10 again i doubt if the have enough trucks to support a grinding offensive and keeping the rest off russia supplied to start with. Further more the supply collums are going to be monitored by guess who and one can imagine the weapons supplied like drones will disrupt the needed flow. The cold war bear is extinct done with no ussr bear. It still can bite but and that is a big relief no match for nato in a non nuclear war. There is nothing more commited then a soldier who is protecting his home and family from harm.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 21, 2022)

Putler will scream loudly if Ukraine were to somehow strike the logistical nodes behind the Russian border. Has Russian territory become hands off after the helo strike? I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians have the precise coordinates of Russian convoys as well as the license plate numbers by now.

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putler will scream loudly if Ukraine were to somehow strike the logistical nodes behind the Russian border. Has Russian territory become hands off after the helo strike? I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians have the precise coordinates of Russian convoys as well as the the license plate numbers by now.


Bet you they have the plate numbers. I do not think they will be attacking outside Ukrain though. Not much good publicity won and the enemy can move far more freely over a bigger piece of dirt making it harder to hit. I think they will wait for the supply coloms to be formed and on their way for a bit just like they did before. Russia did not like that a bit i think.

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

An other thought. After 8 to 9 weeks fighting in a city, how much of the manpower still fighting fit?
Can these troops still be a power or are it just numbers untill rested reenforced and re armed?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia claims to have 'liberated' Mariupol after weeks of bombardment
> 
> 
> Russian officials claimed Thursday that the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine had come under their control. The besieged city has been reduced to rubble since the launch of the invasion on Feb. 24 as Russian forces attempted to capture the city for eight weeks.
> ...


Didn't they claim just last week that they've taken control of Mariupol?

I also seem to recall that they claimed Ukraine forces in Mariupol surrendered about the same time.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> An other thought. After 8 to 9 weeks fighting in a city, how much of the manpower still fighting fit?
> Can these troops still be a power or are it just numbers untill rested reenforced and re armed?



Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 21, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah…I’d be prioritizing trucks over BMPs or tanks, although there will be situations where armour has to be engaged. However, you don’t need expensive missiles to take out trucks. Keep hammering the logistics and any attack will falter. Think Battle of the Bulge….but in Ukraine.



The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against [t]rucks.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.


Yes i read as much. Now just guessing but the city being a prize not the worst troops should have been engaged. That means more or less fresh boys will be going out to fill and fight before the more or less battle proven are on line again. Should be fun for a fresh reserve to go on offensive with very tired companians.

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.


Stategy. Bleed um dry.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Yes i read as much. Now just guessing but the city being a prize not the worst troops should have been engaged. That means more or less fresh boys will be going out to fill and fight before the more or less battle proven are on line again. Should be fun for a fresh reserve to go on offensive with very tired companians.



I could well be wrong, but I have to wonder how many of these "reinforcements" are from the fresh April draft of conscripts Russia has just impressed. No doubt they will be leavened with vets, but all the same, I think these troops will have lower experience and morale.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Bet you they have the plate numbers. I do not think they will be attacking outside Ukrain though. Not much good publicity won and the enemy can move far more freely over a bigger piece of dirt making it harder to hit. I think they will wait for the supply coloms to be formed and on their way for a bit just like they did before. Russia did not like that a bit i think.


Perhaps I've fallen victim to NATO Exceptionalism but I was thinking that the Ukrainian forces would be able to strike a bit more precisely with little collateral damage. I have no idea how well Ukraine's counter punch has been improved.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps I've fallen victim to NATO Exceptionalism but I was thinking that the Ukrainian forces would be able to strike a bit more precisely with little collateral damage. I have no idea how well Ukraine's counter punch has been improved.


So far, it appears Ukraine forces have been fairly good at avoiding civilian casualties.
For one thing, they are concentrating their weapons on Russian equipment/men and not firing indiscriminately into population centers.

This has a two-fold result:
Russian targets eliminated (of course) and conservation of available munitions.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.


A new word for me. Ask Stew: What Is a Ruck?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So far, it appears Ukraine forces have been fairly good at avoiding civilian casualties.


Well yes, the civilians are Ukrainians.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 21, 2022)

Thanks, I was wondering about Rucks as well


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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well yes, the civilians are Ukrainians.


Unlike the Russian shelling of towns in the Donbas region which supposedly contains "ethnic Russians" which the Russians are there to protect...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Unlike the Russian shelling of towns in the Donbas region which supposedly contains "ethnic Russians" which the Russians are there to protect...


Good point. Russians never seem to grasp the hypocrisy of their leaders.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I could well be wrong, but I have to wonder how many of these "reinforcements" are from the fresh April draft of conscripts Russia has just impressed. No doubt they will be leavened with vets, but all the same, I think these troops will have lower experience and morale.



Likely virtually none.

The first intake of Russia's April conscripts won't have completed their version of basic training for at least another three to six weeks. Then they get 'advanced' training from the units they're assigned to - which could be anywhere from one to four months - with some others getting 'specalist' or 'systems' training at the few dedicated training centres. Russia has a rather ad hoc system based around individual military units rather than large centralised training facilities, and training times and standards vary significantly.

Only after this is when conscripts are considered combat ready. Typically the shortest training window for conscripts is about four months - under Russian legislation conscripts can't even legally go into combat with any less training than this, unless there is a situation of martial law. The longest training window is about eight months.

So, its unlikely that the April intake of conscripts would make an appearance in combat units in Ukraine until around the beginning of August, or even later.

Even then, it's important to note the actual number of new troops available won't be particularly massive. The conscript intake is spread out over about 15 weeks, because Russia's basic training infrastructure can't handle more than about 25-30,000 new bodies at any one time (as of 2019). The main bottleneck appears to be the fact that there aren't enough senior NCOs in the system - and most of these will be deployed in Ukraine at the moment.

If conscripts are going to be pushed into the front lines (which there is evidence of), they will likely be already trained troops from the autumn 2021 intake.

Of course, all of the above is based on peacetime standards. Give that Russia is in 'special military operation' times, reality could be different.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 21, 2022)

Aside from an NCO shortage, Russia appears to be getting low on generals, too...

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## ThomasP (Apr 21, 2022)

A couple of odd bits I ran across today:

G7 finance ministers said they have provided and pledged together with the international community, additional support to Ukraine exceeding $24 billion for 2022 and beyond, adding they were prepared to do more.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated China's opposition to unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction". In a video address to the annual Boao Forum for Asia gathering on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".

RF ground forces attempted to storm the Azovstal complex on Wednesday (21 April). On Thursday (22 April) Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces not to storm the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged port city of Mariupol - instead telling his troops to block it "so that not even a fly can get through". There are 1000+ UAF troops and another 1000+ civilians in the Azovstal complex.

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## at6 (Apr 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Switchblades America is sending will be useful for that. 2.5 lb warhead, good enough against rucks.


We are going rucking crazy?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

Of course China wants to eliminate the potential for sanctions - they see what's happening to Russia and learning for future reference for when they attack Taiwan.

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## ThomasP (Apr 22, 2022)

That is part of what I find interesting about the Xi JinPing blurb. His comments clearly acknowledge the implications of the actions taken by much of the developed world in the current 'West' vs Russian Federation confrontation/situation - as opposed to his sitting back and pretending it has no relevance to China's potential actions.

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## MiTasol (Apr 22, 2022)

Just got this in an email titled _this seems to sum it up. _In many ways I have to agree,

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## ThomasP (Apr 22, 2022)

I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 22, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Russia has a rather ad hoc system based around individual military units rather than large centralised training facilities, and training times and standards vary significantly.


Where have we seen this song and dance before? Like Japanese aircraft carriers and their air wings? And what contribution did *that* make to their eventual victory?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated China's opposition to unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction". In a video address to the annual Boao Forum for Asia gathering on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".



All those high-falutin words and he couldn't be bothered to say one thing about naked aggression. 

What a twatwaffle.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.


Hey ThomasP, you have more information on this?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I was just musing. If the Ukrainians can take out the Admiral Essen, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be without heavy SAM capability. (The Admiral Grigorovich is currently in the Med.) The Ukrainians already hit the Admiral Essen with an unspecified weapon on 3 April 2022, but the frigate was operational on 12 April, so not too much damage was done.


Time for some frogmen and limpet mines I’d say. The Ukrainian navy must have a scuba section, but I don’t see it Ukrainian Navy - Wikipedia. They did train with the SEALS, US Navy SEALs are training with Ukrainian special operations forces

What’s available for mines? 

Mines of the United States of America - NavWeaps





Limpet mine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

Remember that autonomous boat shipment that we don’t seem to hear about anymore?

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 22, 2022)

Apparently Russian loses seem to be in line with Ukrainian/western estimates. Those 7000 missing are probably dead (and abandoned) as well.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

What were the Soviets admitting their losses were, up to this point?


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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What were the Soviets admitting their losses were, up to this point?


Officially they reported about 1300 deads a long time ago, and no other official reports.

In late march a filtration from another Russian tabloid said nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers had died. But the publication was removed and attributed to hackers.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

Thanks!


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## Crimea_River (Apr 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> ....., Xi proposed a "global security initiative" which would, among other things, "reject Cold War mentality, oppose unilateralism, and say no to group politics and bloc confrontation".....



Chairman eleven opposes unilateralism. Now that's rich.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Remember that autonomous boat shipment that we don’t seem to hear about anymore?


Damn, you're right, U.S. Navy Drone Boats May Change the Naval Equation in Ukraine

This war has become a developmental playground for the West's arms manufacturers!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Of course China wants to eliminate the potential for sanctions - they see what's happening to Russia and learning for future reference for when they attack Taiwan.


China cannot be pleased by the West's new unified approach to sanctions, interest in rearmament, and protection of breakaway territories. China was counting on global disunity, complacency and neglect of defence spending.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 22, 2022)

Russian General Lets Slip a Secret Plan to Invade Another Country and Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coastline


Artyom AnikeevAs Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land...




www.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian General Lets Slip a Secret Plan to Invade Another Country and Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coastline
> 
> 
> Artyom AnikeevAs Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land...
> ...


Zelensky told the world, if Ukraine falls the Russians will continue westward. He knows the Russian mind.

The US and NATO are willing to proxy fight to the last Ukrainian. Then it will be the Moldavians turn.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 22, 2022)

Oh to be a fly on the wall for this one...apparently the UN Secretary General is meeting Putin on Monday for a "working meeting and lunch." A romantic lunch for two, at opposite ends of a very long table perhaps?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Oh to be a fly on the wall for this one...apparently the UN Secretary General is meeting Putin on Monday for a "working meeting and lunch." A romantic lunch for two, at opposite ends of a very long table perhaps?
> 
> View attachment 665456


Compare this to photos of President Zelenskyy with his people.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The US and NATO are willing to proxy fight to the last Ukrainian. Then it will be the Moldavians turn.


Nonsense.

The Ukraine came under attack and the world responded as best as it can.

Australia, South Korea and Japan, several South American nations, several middle-eastern nations, who have nothing to do with NATO, are sending military aid.
Even Iceland is helping by transporting supplies from various donors to the Ukraine.

Aside from that, there is absolutely nothing any European nation, or the U.S., can do to help the Ukraine without escalating the war into a global conflagration - no matter how bad they want to roll in and crush Russia.

It simply cannot be done unless Russia makes the first move...

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## Glider (Apr 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aside from an NCO shortage, Russia appears to be getting low on generals, too...


On the up side - Plenty of Promotion prospects

On the down side - The Pension Plan sucks

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Damn, you're right, U.S. Navy Drone Boats May Change the Naval Equation in Ukraine
> 
> This war has become a developmental playground for the West's arms manufacturers!


Shades of the Spanish Civil War...

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> there is absolutely nothing any European nation, or the U.S., can do to help the Ukraine without escalating the war into a global conflagration - no matter how bad they want to roll in and crush Russia.


The EU, US and NATO nations can't join the fight. But there's nothing alliance-wise stopping the Moldavians, Georgians and even Kazaks and Azerbaijanis from actively joining the fight alongside the Ukrainians. They know they're next if Ukraine falls, the Russian high command just told the world clearly. Clearly the Russian-puppet governments in Belarus and Chechnya won't help, but there are others.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Stategy. Bleed um dry.



"An army travels on its stomach" ... and its fuel trucks ... and its ammo trucks ...

A spearhead is nigh-useless without a shaft.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The EU, US and NATO nations can't join the fight. But there's nothing alliance-wise stopping the Moldavians, Georgians and even Kazaks and Azerbaijanis from actively joining the fight alongside the Ukrainians. They know they're next if Ukraine falls, the Russian high command just told the world clearly. Clearly the Russian-puppet governments in Belarus and Chechnya won't help, but there are others.


I think the Moldovans know better than the others. They’re on that map the Belorussian Bozo exposed to the world in February.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> On the up side - Plenty of Promotion prospects
> 
> On the down side - The Pension Plan sucks


But heart medication is free.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> But heart medication is free.



So is the tea, I'm told by Top Men.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> But heart medication is free.


Buh dum bump. 
(I wish I knew how to link a rimshot.)

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Buh dum bump.
> (I wish I knew how to link a rimshot.)

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

As I've mentioned before, Georgia has a golden opportunity to expel the Russians at the moment.
With Russia bogging down in the Ukraine, their reaction to a Georgian offensive would be limited, as they would be hard pressed to reinforce/resupply their garrisons.

Transneistra would be easier for the Russians to defend with it's proximity to Russian supply channels coupled with Moldova's small and poorly equipped military. It would require the Ukraine to assist and I don't think Zelensky can divert the manpower needed, but that's just my thinking. I'm not saying it can't be done, but how the logistics would work, I don't know.

Belarus has had civil dissention, but it's Kremlin puppet president has cracked down hard on the people.
However, there is this:








Hundreds of Belarusians join Ukraine’s fight against Russian imperialism


Hundreds of Belarusians have volunteered to fight for Ukraine in the war against Putin's Russia as anti-imperial forces across the former USSR seek to shake off authoritarian Kremlin influence.




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## GTX (Apr 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Australia, South Korea and Japan, several South American nations, several middle-eastern nations, who have nothing to do with NATO, are sending military aid.


South Korea and Japan aren't really sending Military aid beyond helmets and vests.


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## GTX (Apr 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Shades of the Spanish Civil War...


I've thought similar.

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## GTX (Apr 22, 2022)

The leaders of Sweden and Finland look set to deliver Putin's nightmare scenario


A seismic shift has taken place in Finland since the invasion of Ukraine, which could lead to it possibly joining NATO. It would deliver a significant blow to the Russian President by potentially bringing the West right to his doorstep.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Apr 22, 2022)

The battle over borscht


A lot of ink has been spilled trying to understand why Russia invaded Ukraine, but who’d have thought that soup had anything to do with it? What’s the back story, and why is the soup such an important part of Ukraine’s national identity? We spoke with a chef, a historian, and a Ukrainian emigré...




www.gzeromedia.com

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## GTX (Apr 22, 2022)

Kateryna's workplace has become Mariupol's last pocket of resistance against Russia


The sprawling Azovstal steelworks has become the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in the southern port city of Mariupol. Kateryna Kitrish used to work there.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Again: Potemkin military.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 22, 2022)

Yikes! That would certainly explain the high failure rate. It makes you wonder what condition their Nuke ICBMs are in.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

I was thinking the same. I'm guessing if only 5 percent work, the world will still have a bad day. I hope Putin hasn't relieved all the sane folks watching those things.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Again: Potemkin military.


Yep. Don't throw away you Commodore C-64! It would be a step up for them!

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## SaparotRob (Apr 22, 2022)

Too late.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)

This though is just WTAF???


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was thinking the same. I'm guessing if only 5 percent work, the world will still have a bad day. I hope Putin hasn't relieved all the sane folks watching those things.


If NATO could figure out which 5% they could take them out. But it does make the overall anti-ICBM shield easier to contemplate when the targets are fewer.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This though is just WTAF???




Maybe it was a Ukrainian Special Forces mouse? If so, award him the Dicken Medal.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 22, 2022)

Russia finally provides figures on Moskva casualties...but there seem to be some odd maths at play (Source: BBC):

_One sailor died and 27 more are missing after the Russian warship Moskva sank last week, according to RIA news agency citing Russia's defence ministry.

It adds 396 other crew members were rescued from the Moskva, which was the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Russia says a fire onboard caused ammunitions to explode and the vessel sank as it was being towed in a storm. Ukraine says it hit it with missiles._


So 1 dead and 27 more missing = 28 casualties

If 396 crew were rescued, that gives us 424 sailors aboard.

Crew complement of the Moskva was 510....so what of the ghost 86 sailors? Now, it's possible Moskva was not at full crew complement...but that would be over 16% of the ship's crew. That seems like a dangerous degree of under-manning, particularly when you're in a war...errr, I mean, special operations zone.

Am I missing something?

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 22, 2022)

Wouldn't surprise me at all. Reports indicate tanks are undermanned. Why wouldn't ships be too? What was it Rummy said? You go to war {special military exercise} with the military you have, not the military you wish you had.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Wouldn't surprise me at all. Reports indicate tanks are undermanned. Why wouldn't ships be too? What was it Rummy said? You go to war {special military exercise} with the military you have, not the military you wish you had.



Yes, but there are Slava class ships in the Kola and in the Far East. Given the amount of planning and prep time, one would expect they’d steal from those vessels to ensure the Black Sea Fleet was fully combat ready? Maybe????

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Crew complement of the Moskva was 510....so what of the ghost 86 sailors?


I wonder if the complement normally includes Russian marines. They might have been taken off to fight on land.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/r...te-black-sea—and-it-makes-us-navy-wary-190435

Make that four.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

It seems that the Russian sources cannot agree on any one story with the Moskva.

First, the ship didn't sink. Then it did sink.

It wasn't attacked, it had an accident. Then it *may have* been attacked.
It was attacked in an "act of war".

All crewmen were rescued. Some crew were rescued. Most may have been rescued.

A few may have died. Some died.
One died.

Let's wait a few days and see what new spin they come out with. Should be interesting.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It seems that the Russian sources cannot agree on any one story with the Moskva.
> 
> First, the ship didn't sink. Then it did sink.
> 
> ...



Agreed…..and if only one died, was that the captain? Apparently he was killed in the explosion. 

You really have to wonder about any organization that is so paranoid about “messaging” that it will spout any old lies just to not be seen as failing. I know all governments lie….but the Kremlin takes it to an entirely new level.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 22, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Wouldn't surprise me at all. Reports indicate tanks are undermanned. Why wouldn't ships be too? What was it Rummy said? You go to war {special military exercise} with the military you have, not the military you wish you had.


The Russians are using garbage weaponry, tactics, training, planning and logistics, but they’ve still managed to take much of eastern Ukraine. With their superior weapons, tactics, training and motivation the Ukrainians have not yet found a counter to the mass of the Russian effort. They may be useless, but the Russians are winning so far.







If I was the Ukrainian CNC I’d be worried about that salient in the east. If the Russians can find the tanks and the gas they can drive south and north (once Mariupol is dealt with) and cut off a large portion of Ukraine‘s army. Lots of ifs there I admit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Yep. Don't throw away you Commodore C-64! It would be a step up for them!



Complete with PEEK and POKE graphics thanks to C-BASIC.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




With civilians like that backing you up, what fighting man or woman will lay down arms?

We could use that spirit here in this country too.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 22, 2022)

CityNews







toronto.citynews.ca





Hey, another "ammunition" fire.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Oopsie...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

When even your infrastructure is creaking and groaning under the pressure, you're screwed.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 22, 2022)

Oh, it'll probably be NATO's fault.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> When even your infrastructure is creaking and groaning under the pressure, you're screwed.


And yet the Russians have taken over much of eastern Ukraine. We all enjoy snickering at the paper tiger that has become the Russian military, but shite kit or not, they’re getting results, and will soon hold the near entirety of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. While I don’t think the Russians have much ability to advance any further, I also think the Ukrainians lack the ability to push back the Russians…. Meaning that this will stalemate until a ceasefire is called, and Ukraine loses the peace.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet the Russians have taken over much of eastern Ukraine. We all enjoy snickering at the paper tiger that has become the Russian military, but shite kit or not, they’re getting results, and will soon hold the near entirety of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. While I don’t think the Russians have much ability to advance any further, I also think the Ukrainians lack the ability to push back the Russians…. Meaning that this will stalemate until a ceasefire is called, and Ukraine loses the peace.



Very early in this thread I opined that the Ukrainians would be quickly crushed, and it's one instance where I was truly happy to be wrong. I fear your reading is correct, and I hope to be shown wrong again.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

Let us look back to day 15 of the "special operation" and compare it to the map posted a little bit ago.







What we see is that the Ukraine has refused Russia's initial offensive and contained them to the eastern/south-eastern region.
The Donbas and Crimea regions were already a "red shaded area" on the map and Russia has not really gained much territory in nearly two months.

What the Ukraine has done, is exposed Russian Military weaknesses, drained them of resources and now has them contained in a zone.

This war is not yet two months old, the Ukraine has volunteers streaming in to bolster their ranks, they have weapons and supplies streaming in, they have a leader that leads them from the trenches and they have a will to save their homeland at all costs.

Russia cannot sustain their "defensive offensive" much longer, the Ukrainians are bleeding them out.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

As I said much earlier, they don't have to win, they just have to not lose.

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## at6 (Apr 23, 2022)

With the Russian penchant for raping the women, the women should be allowed to "rape" captured Russian soldiers with any foreign object of their choice. I'm hoping and praying that the Ukrainians can defeat and wipe out the Russian forces.

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## at6 (Apr 23, 2022)

The U N Secretary General might as well be a nobody. It's like stitching a pecker to a sow and expecting piglets.


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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2022)

Hey GTX,

re "South Korea and Japan aren't really sending Military aid beyond helmets and vests."

Japan is also sending commercial drones. Note the term "commercial drones". The drones Japan is sending to Ukraine run the gamut - from small types that can fit in the palm of your hand, with automated locating systems and high definition thermal imaging cameras - to larger types like the ones used by the Public Security Intelligence Agency and police agencies for things like fisheries patrols and anti-terrorism activities, where only the fact that they are not shipped with weapons capability and use different communications protocols differentiate them from other nations military drones of similar sizes. These drones are some of the most advanced in the world, and include things like automatic tracking (ie once you lock on to the target signature it will follow the target/stay on station until it runs out of power or is told to stop) and secure low probability of detection communications. The larger ones are all required by Japanese law to have radar signature enhancing, but if one is not law abiding they can be rendered no more detectable than most military drones, with very little effort.

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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2022)

Hey SparrowRob,

Sorry, I missed your post.

The only info I have on the Admiral Essen is that it was hit by something Ukrainian (not a gun, and probably not a Neptune anti-ship missile) on 3 April, something that caused enough damage the ship lost all power for an unspecified period of time. It was originally taken under tow to one of the nearby harbors controlled by the RF, where it underwent repairs with the aid of one of the RF Navy repair ships, and was back in action by 12 April when it was reported it managed to shoot down a Bayraktar drone.

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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2022)

Just one example of a Japanese "commercial drone".

"Skyfront | Leaders in long endurance hybrid drones"

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey GTX,
> 
> re "South Korea and Japan aren't really sending Military aid beyond helmets and vests."
> 
> Japan is also sending commercial drones. Note the term "commercial drones". The drones Japan is sending to Ukraine run the gamut - from small types that can fit in the palm of your hand, with automated locating systems and high definition thermal imaging cameras - to larger types like the ones used by the Public Security Intelligence Agency and police agencies for things like fisheries patrols and anti-terrorism activities, where only the fact that they are not shipped with weapons capability and use different communications protocols differentiate them from other nations military drones of similar sizes. These drones are some of the most advanced in the world, and include things like automatic tracking (ie once you lock on to the target signature it will follow the target/stay on station until it runs out of power or is told to stop) and secure low probability of detection communications. The larger ones are all required by Japanese law to have radar signature enhancing, but if one is not law abiding they can be rendered no more detectable than most military drones, with very little effort.


The very fact that nations on the other side of the world are actively sending what aid their laws allow, is a statement in itself.
Japan, for example, cannot supply lethal aid, so their sending helmets, body armor and such, is an indication of how the world at large, views the situation.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 23, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> was back in action by 12 April when it was reported it managed to shoot down a Bayraktar drone.


Which it could have done from (dry?)dockside.


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## wlewisiii (Apr 23, 2022)

Interesting argument that the war was really only for domestic consumption...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 23, 2022)

Russian Navy is sending a 110 years old vessel to salvage the Moskva.

A 110 y.o. vessel.









Russia's 110-Year-Old Salvage Ship Deploying To Moskva Wreck: Report


Kommuna, an antique Russian Navy salvage ship, has embarked on a mission to investigate a potential salvage operation for the Moskva wreck.




www.thedrive.com





The US Navy is planning to retire the 22 Ticonderoga clases cruisers in 5 years, with 35 years use in their hulls.









Navy Plans To Rid Itself Of Cruisers In Just Five Years


The Navy is looking to retire all of its remaining Ticonderoga class guided missile cruisers within just half a decade.




www.thedrive.com

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet the Russians have taken over much of eastern Ukraine. We all enjoy snickering at the paper tiger that has become the Russian military, but shite kit or not, they’re getting results, and will soon hold the near entirety of the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea. While I don’t think the Russians have much ability to advance any further, I also think the Ukrainians lack the ability to push back the Russians…. Meaning that this will stalemate until a ceasefire is called, and Ukraine loses the peace.



Not sure I agree with your assessment. Who would broker any peace agreement? Certainly no western country would seek a peaceful agreement that rewarded Russian aggression. China won't be acceptable to western nations, or to Ukraine either, because of Beijing's refusal to condemn the Russian attack. 

I also don't see Ukraine simply giving up and accepting a bad deal. I do see the war bogging down into some sort of stalemate, where Russia can't advance any further and Ukraine can't push back Russian forces. However, it doesn't necessarily follow that there would be a ceasefire. I think Ukraine wants to do what the Taliban did...simply wear down the Russian forces until they eventually give up (or Putin is replaced).

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians are using garbage weaponry, tactics, training, planning and logistics, but they’ve still managed to take much of eastern Ukraine. With their superior weapons, tactics, training and motivation the Ukrainians have not yet found a counter to the mass of the Russian effort. They may be useless, but the Russians are winning so far.
> 
> View attachment 665462
> 
> ...


A pirric victory so far.

Huge losses, not achieving a regimen change in Ukrainia, almost total isolation from the outside world, a united western front, Sweden and Finland bound to NATO arms, EU determined to end dependence on russian oil&gas.

The eastern ukrainian gains for RF are to be temporal, Zelensky said. And frankly, so far Zelensky seems a much more reliable source than Uncle Vlad & Co.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A pirric victory so far.
> 
> Huge losses, not achieving a regimen change in Ukrainia, almost total isolation from the outside world, a united western front, Sweden and Finland bound to NATO arms, EU determined to end dependence on russian oil&gas.
> 
> The eastern ukrainian gains for RF are to be temporal, Zelensky said. And frankly, so far Zelensky seems a much more reliable source than Uncle Vlad & Co.



As I look at Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, they mostly seem to be in areas where Ukrainian forces were previously at risk of being cut off. The push north out of Crimea south coupled with the advance south from Kharkiv theatened to cut off the best of Ukraine's army that was still holding Russian forces in the Donbas. The fact that areas in that eastern region are now being occupied by Russian troops suggest that the Ukranian forces have staged a deliberate retreat so they don't get encircled. If that's the case, then I can definitely see this war lasting a long time and that Russian forces will eventually get ground down.

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## Denniss (Apr 23, 2022)

Ukraine's leadership is not as dumb as the Wehrmacht in person of Hitler who insisted of holding out and fight to the last men.
A tactical retreat is always better then a strategic defeat.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 23, 2022)

Bloated Vladimir Putin video heightens theories Russian leader is sick


A new video shows the Russian president looking bloated and awkwardly gripping a table for support.




nypost.com





So, what happens if Putin dies before the end of 2022? Is there a successor? What happens to the war?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 23, 2022)

Xi moves on the Solomons?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So, what happens if Putin dies before the end of 2022?


That could be the face saving Rusia need. Blanes on the dead.


Admiral Beez said:


> Is there a successor?


That's the big question. In a country that autocratic where the leader is so paranoid that make efforts so nobody can rise against him, who will/could take the reins of the country? Will the russian federation fall apart? It won't be clever for the West to pursuit such a move cos in 20 years another Uncle Vlad could rise again under the banner of western mangling Rusia and then, back in time to the early 2000s.

Typos edited.

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## Glider (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Bloated Vladimir Putin video heightens theories Russian leader is sick
> 
> 
> A new video shows the Russian president looking bloated and awkwardly gripping a table for support.
> ...


I have to say that he doesn't look well in that video clip

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## Glider (Apr 23, 2022)

I notice from the UK MOD they do not believe that Russia is making any significant gains

*Russia takes small towns but makes "no major gains," say UK officials: *Russia has captured dozens of small towns and settlements in its assault on the eastern Donbas region, and Ukrainian officials describe continued heavy fighting throughout Donetsk and Luhansk there. A situation report by the UK's Ministry of Defense, however, said on Saturday that Russian forces had made "no major gains" in the past 24 hours, in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian air and sea defenses have also been able to stop the progress of Russian air and maritime forces, the ministry added in a post on social media.

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## swampyankee (Apr 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.





at6 said:


> The U N Secretary General might as well be a nobody. It's like stitching a pecker to a sow and expecting piglets.





at6 said:


> The U N Secretary General might as well be a nobody. It's like stitching a pecker to a sow and expecting piglets.


Like it or not, the UN is organized and structured _exactly_ how the US wanted it to be when it was organized: powerless in any disagreement involving the five permanent members of the security council.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That could be the face saving Rusia need. Blanes on the dead.
> 
> That's the big question. In a country that autocratic where the leader is so paranoid that make efforts so nobody can rise against him, Who will/could take the reina of the country? Will the russian federation fall apart? It won't be clever for the West to pursuit such a mover cos in 20 years another Uncle Vlad could rise again under the banner of western mangling Rusia and then, back in time to the early 2000s.



Since Vladimir Putin belongs to the party that holds 95% of seats in the Duma, the probable, and most stable, solution would be to have the next "annointed one" from The Party (sounds like Communism, doesn't it?) move in to take Putin's place, with just a sprinkling of faked election to give the illusion that there's some kind of democratic process at work. My bet would be on Medvedev as the successor after Putin.

The other option is that the power vacuum generates enough space for contrary views to be expressed once more, in which case things could get messy. There has been talk of a civil war in Russia but I think a lot of that depends on how Putin's Praetorian Guard (which numbers over 300,000 men!) and the FSB respond to Putin's death. If they don't like the next "annointed one" then things could get really ugly.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Since Vladimir Putin belongs to the party that holds 95% of seats in the Duma, the probable, and most stable, solution would be to have the next "annointed one" from The Party (sounds like Communism, doesn't it?) move in to take Putin's place, with just a sprinkling of faked election to give the illusion that there's some kind of democratic process at work. My bet would be on Medvedev as the successor after Putin.


That is the most probable outcome, but Medvedev? Isn't him amortized?

With 300.000 praetorians, things could get very nasty for all the world if there is a fight for power between two or more.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That is the most probable outcome, but Medvedev? Isn't him amortized?



Nope, he's still sucking air that could be better used by a decent human being.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

_The United States and allied countries are racing against the clock to ship weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine amid a brutal and renewed Russian attack on the country's east.

Juggling supply chain demands, weapons needs and the logistics of actually getting defense aid into Ukraine, the balance is pivotal in Ukraine's effort to hold the Donbas region, according to officials and experts. 

"Having a continuous flow of just supplies and munitions, like ammunition, is critical," said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"You know, it's not very high visibility, it's not very exciting, but that's what keeps armies functioning," he added.

[...]

"Eight to 10 flights a day are going into the theater, and not all of those flights are American flights, but most of them are. And every single day, including this day, there has been ground movement inside Ukraine. So we have seen no slowing down," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Thursday, highlighting the frantic pace of deliveries. 

[...]

But the fact remains that the U.S. doesn't have a terribly reliable way to track what happens to arms shipments after they cross into Ukraine, including what units they go to and how they're used. 

The blind spots are linked to several factors, including the fog of war and the fact that many of the arms being sent in are smaller, man portable systems such as single use drones and shoulder-fired rockets. Those easy-to-transport weapons are far harder to track compared to larger systems such as tanks, air defense systems or aircraft._









US races clock to ship weapons to Ukraine


The United States and allied countries are racing against the clock to ship weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine amid a brutal and renewed Russian attack on the country’s east. Juggling&…




thehill.com

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## SaparotRob (Apr 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Nope, he's still sucking air that could be better used by a decent human being.


What he said.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Nope, he's still sucking air that could be better used by a decent human being.


By amortized I didn't mean that he has had a heart attack, I was meaning that he has been expended was a backup for Uncle Vlad.

Always thought that he was playing the good cop role of the pair.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> By amortized I didn't mean that he has had a heart attack, I was meaning that he has been expended was a backup for Uncle Vlad.
> 
> Always thought that he was playing the good cop role of the pair.



He resigned as Prime Minister when Putin essentially got rid of the role. However, Putin had named him as his own successor. Medvedev is still Deputy Chairman of the Security Council (Putin is the Chairman) which advises Putin on security and strategic affairs. He also leads the United Russia party which holds most seats in the Duma (approx 75%) and has actively supported Putin's policies. I'm pretty sure Medvedev is the front-runner to replace Putin. Frankly, I'm not sure he'd be much of an improvement.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Yet another example of Russian precision targeting, this time in Odesa:





Now...I can see the need to target civilian infrastructure if it's being used to attack your own forces. High buildings provide a good vantage point for MANPAD and MANPAT weapons. However, there aren't any Russian forces even remotely close to Odesa, so there's no way this apartment block can be claimed as a legitimate target. Ukrainian sources state five people were killed, including a 3-month old baby, and 18 were wounded in this attack.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> I have to say that he doesn't look well in that video clip


How much you wanna bet, our lad Vlad feels the sands of time running out of his hourglass and this whole debacle was due to fast tracking Project USSR 2.0 to get it done in time to secure his legacy before he loses his race with The Reaper?

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 23, 2022)

Well, he was counting on a few things that didn't pan out. He expected Zelensky to cut and run at the first application of force. He was counting on a rapid disintegration of Ukrainian resistance with his pro-Russia Quislings quickly taking control of the government with Russian support. He was counting on a paralysed or lack lustre response from NATO.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

I am willing to bet that this disaster, which not only backfired in an epic fashion, but also laid bare to the world that the mighty Russian military is a third-rate clown show, is putting immemse amounts of stress on Putin.

If his health was in bad shape before this "special operation", I can only imagine what's like now - stress alone, can be a killer.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am willing to bet that this disaster, which not only backfired in an epic fashion, but also laid bare to the world that the mighty Russian military is a third-rate clown show, is putting immemse amounts of stress on Putin.
> 
> If his health was in bad shape before this "special operation", I can only imagine what's like now - stress alone, can be a killer.



Stress can be a killer? We can only hope!

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## Glider (Apr 23, 2022)

Just a thought. Russia media in particular is starting to get very paranoid about NATO. We have all seen Russian 'Media' shows saying that in reality Russia is fighting the whole of Nato which is why things are taking longer than originally planned. Now we know that this is far from the truth, but the people watching this stuff will believe it.

Now we get conjecture that the SAS are operating in the Ukraine.

_'The top investigative body in Russia is looking at whether the SAS is "organising sabotage" in Ukraine. 
The Investigative Committee - Moscow's main federal investigating authority - said it would be following up a report from Russia's RIA Novosti news agency.
RIA quoted a Russian security source as saying about 20 members of the SAS had been deployed in the western Lviv region, close to the border with Poland.
The Investigative Committee said it would look at whether - according to the report - the SAS had been sent in to "assist the Ukrainian special services in organising sabotage on the territory of Ukraine"._

Now I am sure that this is rubbish after all. If the source Novosti used was a Russian Security source, then it would take 10 seconds for the Investigative Committee to check it out.

The danger as I see it is that this could become pressure for the RA to do something. If the Russian People start kicking up a head of steam it could well be that Putin has to be seen to do something, something he may not want to do.

It also proves of course that they are S--- Scared of the SAS and no doubt other Nato special forces.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

I'm fairly sure that if the SAS or other special forces were operating in the region, there would be no speculation - they would know immediately by the results.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

There have been other reports, including from Ukraine itself, that the SAS has deployed a team to help train Ukrainian soldiers on some of the new kit they’re getting, and probably on asymmetric warfare tactics. I thought it was foolish of the Ukrainian authorities to admit the SAS training….I guess we’ll see how Putin and his megaphones portray this.

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## Glider (Apr 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm fairly sure that if the SAS or other special forces were operating in the region, there would be no speculation - they would know immediately by the results.


That I don't deny. The point is that true or not, if public pressure grows then he may be 'forced' into doing something which may well escalate things.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

Training is a different matter - especially if they are there as "volunteers" and not active in combat ops.

Perhaps the Russians are just angry that no one is helping them train their army...

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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2022)

Interesting bit of info. Turkey just closed its airspace to flights between Russia and Syria, including both military and civil aircraft.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> That I don't deny. The point is that true or not, if public pressure grows then he may be 'forced' into doing something which may well escalate things.



I don't think Putin gives a damn about public pressure. The only public opinion that matters to Putin is the one that he, himself, so generously gives to the people to help enable the State to accomplish its great and glorious mission. Ergo, the real question is how does Putin see the presence of the SAS in western Ukraine? 

If you come at the problem from the perspective that every right-thinking Ukrainian must want Russian hegemony, then clearly anyone who fights against such rule must be (a) a nazi, or (b) a tool of NATO which is using those tools to destroy Russia (other bêtes-noires are available). I expect Putin to play the presence of the SAS as an example of the latter, and "inflaming" the conflict to prevent Russia from achieving its "righteous" goals.

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## ThomasP (Apr 23, 2022)

A potential mess that could occur involves the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). Belarus is already involved, though not due to the treaty. In my opinion it is unlikely the other nations will get involved in Ukraine - maybe Armenia if enough pressure were applied by Russia? But if Russia becomes unstable - or really screws up in the Ukraine? Just a thought.

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## GTX (Apr 23, 2022)

This village thought swamps would protect them from Putin's troops — who arrived on a mission to kill one woman


When Russians arrived in Mokrets, the village leader was being hunted. Through a whisper network, they protected her. Warning: This article contains details readers might find distressing.




www.abc.net.au

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## MiTasol (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Russian Navy is sending a 110 years old vessel to salvage the Moskva.
> 
> A 110 y.o. vessel.



Hopefully the Ukrainians can park the Kommuna next to the Moskva

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## MiTasol (Apr 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Well, he was counting on a few things that didn't pan out. He expected Zelensky to cut and run at the first application of force. He was counting on a rapid disintegration of Ukrainian resistance with his pro-Russia Quislings quickly taking control of the government with Russian support. He was counting on a paralysed or lack lustre response from NATO.



Well he did get it right on one of the four - the response from NATO could have been earlier and faster tho they did disprove that NATO means No Action Talk Only because they have provided a lot of physical and moral support.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 23, 2022)

Did Zelensky just spill the beans?



Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin headed to Kyiv, Zelenskyy says



Sounds like a juicy target.

Challenger IIs (with British crews) going to Poland as trade for T-72s.









The tanks that the UK plans to send to Poland in order to deliver T-72 to Ukraine







www.outono.net

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## wlewisiii (Apr 23, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> By amortized I didn't mean that he has had a heart attack, I was meaning that he has been expended was a backup for Uncle Vlad.
> 
> Always thought that he was playing the good cop role of the pair.



Sorry -- I thought you were sarcastically referring to being dead.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am willing to bet that this disaster, which not only backfired in an epic fashion, but also laid bare to the world that the mighty Russian military is a third-rate clown show, is putting immemse amounts of stress on Putin.
> 
> If his health was in bad shape before this "special operation", I can only imagine what's like now - stress alone, can be a killer.



We can always hope.

ETA: lol, as usual by now, 

 buffnut453
beat me to it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Zelensky just spill the beans?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Pretty sure Russia's got its hands full right now and doesn't want a shooting war with America.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure Russia's got its hands full right now and doesn't want a shooting war with America.


Aren't we still trembling from Russia's test of their top-secret and completely intimidating new ICBM?

I mean, shouldn't we all be trying to make peace with Russia now, while hiding in our basements?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure Russia's got its hands full right now and doesn't want a shooting war with America.


Agreed, but I hope Zelensky asked Biden if he could make this announcement. Usually senior US cabinet officials would just show up in combat zones, like Iraq and Afghanistan, with the news telling us about it the day they arrived or often after the VIPs left.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed, but I hope Zelensky asked Biden if he could make this announcement. Usually senior US cabinet officials would just show up in combat zones, like Iraq and Afghanistan, with the news telling us about it the day they arrived or often after the VIPs left.



I would imagine that there was talking about the announcement ahead of time. If I'm guessing right, and it is indeed only a guess, it may well be a case of messaging "this is how much we care about this war, and if you want to do something have at it."

I'd double-dog dare them to do something just for the sake of trolling. Fly them in, under fighter escort, and perhaps attach a couple of cargo-planes stuffed to the gills with gear. Egg on the face if Russia does nothing, and some serious beat-down if they try anything.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aren't we still trembling from Russia's test of their top-secret and completely intimidating new ICBM?
> 
> I mean, shouldn't we all be trying to make peace with Russia now, while hiding in our basements?



It slightly disturbed my morning coffee.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I don't think Putin gives a damn about public pressure. The only public opinion that matters to Putin is the one that he, himself, so generously gives to the people to help enable the State to accomplish its great and glorious mission. Ergo, the real question is how does Putin see the presence of the SAS in western Ukraine?
> 
> If you come at the problem from the perspective that every right-thinking Ukrainian must want Russian hegemony, then clearly anyone who fights against such rule must be (a) a nazi, or (b) a tool of NATO which is using those tools to destroy Russia (other bêtes-noires are available). I expect Putin to play the presence of the SAS as an example of the latter, and "inflaming" the conflict to prevent Russia from achieving its "righteous" goals.


The fire in the Russian aerospace/whatever lab that went up was, in my opinion faulty wiring, like they said. It just seems to go along with the rest of their now exposed competence. However, if anyone could have pulled that caper off.....

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The fire in the Russian aerospace/whatever lab that went up was, in my opinion faulty wiring, like they said. It just seems to go along with the rest of their now exposed competence. However, if anyone could have pulled that caper off.....


I honestly feel that the accident was truly just that, an accident.

Russia is in a situation where they need to get an upper hand in Ukraine and I'm sure that Putler has made it clear that failure is not an option - why else would they be testing an ICBM in the middle of a war, especially when resources and manpower are much needed elsewhere.

So these people are probably working long hours and under a great deal of pressure to produce results which is a recipe for disaster.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 23, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




For those not in the know, Applebaum is a highly-regarded scholar of the Holocaust and other elimination operations. I've only read her _Gulag_, but it digs into detail and presents copious footnotes for those wanting to go further down that rabbit-hole.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 23, 2022)

It's a sad day when the leaders of a nation take to censorship as a means to "win" a self-inflicted war.

Erasing the Ukraine and all associated with it, is literally erasing their origins.

It would be like America eradicating England from it's history...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's a sad day when the leaders of a nation take to censorship as a means to "win" a self-inflicted war.
> 
> Erasing the Ukraine and all associated with it, is literally erasing their origins.
> 
> It would be like America eradicating England from it's history...



It's the only sense I agree with that this is a form of genocide. The Russians aren't trying to exterminate all Ukrainians -- but trying to erase the history of a people, to eradicate their culture, is certainly a form of elimination. I speak this as someone who is one-eighth Blackfoot and have no knowledge of that aspect of my own personal heritage, because it has been erased. Wiping out the culture is indeed in one sense wiping out the peoplehood, if you'll pardon the awkward phrase.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



George Orwell foresaw all this back in 1948. Thoughtcrime, doublespeak, and the eradication of history.

"It's all been done before,
it's all been written in the book.
When there's too much of nothing,
no one should look."

And in the final moment, as the bullet entered his brain, he knew at last he loved Big Brother.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> George Orwell foresaw all this back in 1948. Thoughtcrime, doublespeak, and the eradication of history.
> 
> "It's all been done before,
> it's all been written in the book.
> ...











Why Orwell Matters - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





It's a good read.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Why Orwell Matters - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


His collected Essays are here: Collected Essays, by George Orwell - Free e-book

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 24, 2022)

Hitler did the same when he annexed (reunified the Reich) Austria, renaming it Ostmark and redrawing its political boundaries.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Apr 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's a sad day when the leaders of a nation take to censorship as a means to "win" a self-inflicted war.
> 
> Erasing the Ukraine and all associated with it, is literally erasing their origins.
> 
> It would be like America eradicating England from it's history...



Nah….never gonna happen. Not when so many Americans just LOVE to bring up the War of Independence. There’s a whole industry built around it. I looked at the blurb of one book that claimed Britain was a global superpower in 1776 in an attempt to further show American exceptionalism in defeating the Redcoats. It’s nonsense but it’s profitable nonsense. 😁

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I speak this as someone who is one-eighth Blackfoot and have no knowledge of that aspect of my own personal heritage, because it has been erased.


Us Canadians became experts at that with our indigenous people. Introduce smallpox, measles (early germ warfare), alcohol and drugs; invite their chiefs to meetings and then murder them: kidnap the children so to force them to forget their indigenous language; dump the thousands of stolen children who died like garbage into mass, unmarked graves; coerce their parents to live on reservations (including shooting Inuit sled dogs), etc. It’s our own history of apartheid.


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## swampyankee (Apr 24, 2022)

Propagandizing history is an old tactic: the "noble cause" lie in US history and the "stab in the back" of Germany's are both infamous. More recently, outright denial has become fashionable, like Holocaust deniers, and monetized, like those claiming the mass murder at Sandy Hook never happened.

Wiping out a people's history is another old tactic, such as forbidding use of a language, as was done by the US and Canada with respect to First Peoples.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Nah….never gonna happen. Not when so many Americans just LOVE to bring up the War of Independence. There’s a whole industry built around it. I looked at the blurb of one book that claimed Britain was a global superpower in 1776 in an attempt to further show American exceptionalism in defeating the Redcoats. It’s nonsense but it’s profitable nonsense. 😁


Just don't mention that we would have lost with out massive weapons and ammunition transfers from France as well as foreign trainers (Von Steuben, et al). There is a reason that the first Springfield Musket of 1795 is a direct ripoff of the Charleville Model 1763/66. I imagine that, likewise, in a couple of years there will be very good clones of the Javelin out of Ukrainian arms companies.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I imagine that, likewise, in a couple of years there will be very good clones of the Javelin out of Ukrainian arms companies.


I’m interested to see what types of AFVs are rolling out of Ukraine’s tank factory, once it’s back up to speed.

Ukraine’s largest tank factory produced only one tank for armed forces in ten years

I expect the days of Ukraine making clones of former Soviet tanks is coming to a close. Maybe they’ll license build something like Turkey’s Altay or South Korea’s Blank Panther. The latter has an auto loader (see below, note blast door), but not the cook-off, turret-removing carousel setup the Russians use.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m interested to see what types of AFVs are rolling out of Ukraine’s tank factory, once it’s back up to speed.
> 
> Ukraine’s largest tank factory produced only one tank for armed forces in ten years
> 
> I expect the days of Ukraine making clones of former Soviet tanks is coming to a close.


I see the article is from 2019. It would be good to know what may have changed in the meantime.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Just don't mention that we would have lost with out massive weapons and ammunition transfers from France as well as foreign trainers (Von Steuben, et al). There is a reason that the first Springfield Musket of 1795 is a direct ripoff of the Charleville Model 1763/66. I imagine that, likewise, in a couple of years there will be very good clones of the Javelin out of Ukrainian arms companies.


Don't forget the spanish contribution to the USA independence.









Spain and the American Revolution


Examine the role Spain played in the American Revolution, who Spain's major players were, and additional resources to continue learning more.




www.amrevmuseum.org

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## J_P_C (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m interested to see what types of AFVs are rolling out of Ukraine’s tank factory, once it’s back up to speed.
> 
> Ukraine’s largest tank factory produced only one tank for armed forces in ten years
> 
> I expect the days of Ukraine making clones of former Soviet tanks is coming to a close. Maybe they’ll license build something like Turkey’s Altay or South Korea’s Blank Panther. The latter has an auto loader (see below, note blast door), but not the cook-off, turret-removing carousel setup the Russians use.



T-64 clones, including Bulat tank which is modification of T64 with fixing most of the design flaws from T64/72 family. Welded turret equipped in 120mm gun using NATO ammunition and autoloader similar to K2 tank. Malyshew technological center in Kharkov is probably largest tank factory in the world with knowledge and technological capabilities well ahead of Russian Uralmash. I dont know if you are aware of the fact that actually Ukraine were probably most technologically advanced part of USSR, manufacturing turbine engines, majority of rocket industry, optoelectronics, shipbuilding and heavy vehicles. Ukraine is also one of largest food manufacturer/exporter in the world. Possessor of probably biggest deposits of the Titanium and Scandium in the world and.... freshly discovered natural gas as well. Probably this short description should makes needs for "denazification" pretty clear for you.

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## J_P_C (Apr 24, 2022)

T-84 Oplot

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## J_P_C (Apr 24, 2022)

Morozov factory parking lot couple years ago...

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## J_P_C (Apr 24, 2022)

T-84BM Jatagan - this is most advanced version of the family with all mentioned modifications included +6TD engine.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Just don't mention that we would have lost with out massive weapons and ammunition transfers from France as well as foreign trainers (Von Steuben, et al). There is a reason that the first Springfield Musket of 1795 is a direct ripoff of the Charleville Model 1763/66. I imagine that, likewise, in a couple of years there will be very good clones of the Javelin out of Ukrainian arms companies.


You may still have lost had the RN not uncharacteristically lost the Battle of the Chesapeake. Of course France’s helping a grass roots rebellion in 1776 was a little dumb, as it gave their own people the same idea in 1789, with the French King being executed in in 1793.

The smarter French move in North America would have been to sit it out, or even better, offer an alliance with Britain to keep the colonials in their place. France has been at Peace with Britain since 1763. There was no gain for France to provoke Britain, leading to France’s disastrous wars of 1778-1783. An alliance is highly unlikely, but sitting it out was the smarter move for France.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Of course France’s helping a grass roots rebellion in 1776 was a little dumb, as it gave their own people the same idea in 1789.


Nitpicking, I know, but actually nobody would touch the American rebels in 1776. It was the American defeat of Burgoyne's northern invasion in late 1777 that opened the floodgates of foreign aid. Gen. Horatio Gates was credited with that victory, but it was his subordinate, Benedict Arnold, who was the primary architect of the success at Saratoga and the campaign leading up to it.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 24, 2022)

The Dutch were also a key player along with France and Spain.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Dutch were also a key player along with France and Spain.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Why Orwell Matters - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...





wlewisiii said:


> His collected Essays are here: Collected Essays, by George Orwell - Free e-book


Never mind the academic claptrap. The pertinent perspective on Putin, Stalin, Hitler, et al, is encapsulated in _ Nineteen Eighty Four._
A necessary read for any responsible citizen of a democratic society.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Never mind the academic claptrap. The pertinent perspective on Putin, Stalin, Hitler, et al, is encapsulated in _ Nineteen Eighty Four._


I personally found more of value for that in "Homage to Catalonia" with the descriptions of dealing with real Stalinists and fighting the Fascists while not politically acceptable (Trotskyite) to either being in the POUM militia. His wound came, really, just in the nick of time.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> France has been at Peace with Britain since 1763.


Who taught you history?? Have you forgotten the entire Napoleanic wars? 1789 would have happened without the USA's example though probably a little later, and definitely more brutally, if that's conceivable. Napoleon or someone like him would be the result, as the clash of empires still required resolution. Britain and France spent most of the rest of the 19th century snarling at each other. Hardly "at peace with each other".

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## GTX (Apr 24, 2022)

Ukrainian soldiers inside Azovstal release video of children trapped by Russian attacks


As Russian forces step up their assault on Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks, new video appears to show some of the women and children trapped inside.




www.abc.net.au

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I personally found more of value for that in "Homage to Catalonia" with the descriptions of dealing with real Stalinists and fighting the Fascists while not politically acceptable (Trotskyite) to either


Thanks for the tip. Added to my list.
My PoliSci prof at university was a survivor of a Russian _shtetl _upbringing, conscription in the Red Army, German POW camp, Dachau, and the Israeli war of independence, with the scars and tattoos to prove it. We spent half a semester on Orwell and totalitarianism. If you haven't already, add Eric Hoffer's _The True Believer_ to your list. Another necessary asset in today's world.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Who taught you history?? Have you forgotten the entire Napoleanic wars? 1789 would have happened without the USA's example though probably a little later, and definitely more brutally, if that's conceivable. Napoleon or someone like him would be the result, as the clash of empires still required resolution. Britain and France spent most of the rest of the 19th century snarling at each other. Hardly "at peace with each other".


Think that was a typo for "had". The idea being that they were then currently at peace so why kick the dog? Fortunately, Franklin convinced them to do so

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Who taught you history?? Have you forgotten the entire Napoleanic wars?


I do hate the gotcha like replies we sometimes see. Whenever I‘m compelled to reply with such sarcastic dismissals I say to myself, “_Come on Admiral, don’t be a dick. If you have nothing to contribute, keep quiet.”_

I wrote that Britain and France had been (up until the date they joined the Americans in 1778) at peace since 1763, the end of the Seven Years War. As I said, France was at peace with Britain and should have sat out the American revolutionary war. The Napoleonic War started in 1803, a different matter.

But we’re off topic, I’ll say no more on this. Back to Ukraine.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Think that was a typo for "had". The idea being that they were then currently at peace so why kick the dog?





Admiral Beez said:


> Did you forget the Anglo-French war of 1778–1783 that predated the Napoleonic War?


By land, and in Europe, there were periods of "peace" and war, but at sea and globally, conflict never ceased, as the contest for empire and sniping at rival's seaborne trade with privateers and letters of marque was never-ending, despite treaties and conventions.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But we’re off topic, I’ll say no more on this. Back to Ukraine.


Roger that!
I let astonishment get the better of me and missed the obvious typo in your comment.
_Mea culpa._

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

Ukraine to call for heavy arms when top U.S. officials visit Kyiv


Ukraine will ask U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin for more powerful weapons during an expected visit by the officials to Kyiv on Sunday as the Russian invasion enters its third month.




www.reuters.com





_“Ukrainian officials plan to tell Blinken and Austin of the immediate need for more weapons, including anti-missile systems, anti-aircraft systems, armoured vehicles and tanks, Zelenskiy aide Igor Zhovkva told NBC News on Sunday.”_

What US armoured vehicles would Ukraine want? Up to now the US has focused on facilitating Russian-made AFVs from other countries to Ukraine, often backfilling the departing Russian-made AFVs with US kit or even US units. Is this just more of the same or is Ukraine asking for US made and operated AFV? As I understand it the issue is a lack of familiarity and training.

Maybe they’ll get some Light Strike Vehicle - Wikipedia.


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## ThomasP (Apr 24, 2022)

Unless something has changed, the US is sending several hundred M113 APCs including variants thereof, plus an unspecified number&type of wheeled APCs (mostly MRAPs and variants thereof, I think). Both are easy to train in on and relatively easy to support, and because of the nature of this war they can be treated as single use items if they break down or are otherwise abandoned, so spare parts logistics is maybe not so important.

There are a lot of M113 based vehicles available from the US. There are 200+ scheduled for the first deliveries (some already in the air, though I think most of the rest will be sent by ship) with many more currently in the regular Army and National Guard repair and maintenance shops being brought up to operational standards.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is this just more of the same or is Ukraine asking for US made and operated AFV? As I understand it the issue is a lack of familiarity and training.


Besides, isn't the .M1 Abrams kind of long in the tooth these days? And don't we have a stockpile of them out of service as they're considered unsurvivable on a modern battlefield?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Besides, isn't the .M1 Abrams kind of long in the tooth these days? And don't we have a stockpile of them out of service as they're considered unsurvivable on a modern battlefield?


The Marines are getting rid of the M1 also, so there must be some more hundreds of surplus Abrams tanks.

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## GTX (Apr 24, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The Marines are getting rid of the M1 also, so there must be some more hundreds of surplus Abrams tanks.


Being re-manufactured into M1A2 SEP V3s I believe.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 24, 2022)

Other than older M-1 tanks, I don’t think we have anything else other than M-48 and M-60 gate guards. I hope we’ve already been training a Ukrainian M-1 cadre.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Other than older M-1 tanks, I don’t think we have anything else other than M-48 and M-60 gate guards. I hope we’ve already been training a Ukrainian M-1 cadre.


Not Abrams, but still interesting. It’s not clear if they’re training in the UK currently.









Britain reveals Ukrainian soldiers are training locally


Britain has trained the Ukrainian military since 2015, following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.




www.defensenews.com





But if they are, it gives the Ukrainian NCOs and troops a chance to stand down, a little.

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## GTX (Apr 24, 2022)

'I did a smart thing': Russia is trying to delete evidence of its horrors in Mariupol, but Nouri had a plan


As Russia claims the prize of Mariupol, attention turns to establishing exactly what happened in the battle for the city.




www.abc.net.au

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## tomo pauk (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Besides, isn't the .M1 Abrams kind of long in the tooth these days? And don't we have a stockpile of them out of service as they're considered unsurvivable on a modern battlefield?



Considered unsurvivable by whom?

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Besides, isn't the .M1 Abrams kind of long in the tooth these days? And don't we have a stockpile of them out of service as they're considered unsurvivable on a modern battlefield?


Hardly. Perhaps the first gen M1 and M1 IP might be lesser than other M1 models given the 105mm M68 main gun but once you hit the M1A1 with the 120mm gun or the M1A2 which finally had a fire control system better than the M60A3 TTS, any of them, one for one, are the finest tank in the world. With the Israeli active defense systm and DU armor layered into the composite armor it will remain viable, *when properly employed, *for decades to come. Its biggest weakness is the fact that the turbine has an obscene fuel appetite. I personally would want to explore a replacement diesel power pack but I'm not SecDef. 

We have huge stockpiles because of the Marines decision to rely on the Army for armor support and because congress has consistently bought more than we need from Lima as Defense Contractor Welfare. According to wiki we have "some 3,700 more M1A1 and M1A2 in storage" which are very current models. 

This remains especially true since the economic damage from this war will prevent the Russian army from buying the T-14 Armata which might have been nearly a peer to the M1A1. 

Now, I do not advocate that Ukraine should receive anything other than the tanks they are currently qualified on so long as combat operations continue but once there is a peace that looks to last 6 months +, they can start the transition to US M1A1 tanks and the necessary support infrastructure. This needs to be provided free ("loan") to Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Never mind the academic claptrap. The pertinent perspective on Putin, Stalin, Hitler, et al, is encapsulated in _ Nineteen Eighty Four._
> A necessary read for any responsible citizen of a democratic society.



While I agree that _1984_ speaks for itself, dismissing Hitchens's book as "academic claptrap" isn't really fair. It's not academic, but simply Hitchens's views on ole George, written with the former's usual direct and intelligent style, and then correlating them to the time of writing, about twenty-odd years ago. And those reasons he presents are, yes, more pertinent in the age of "alternate facts" and "fake media".

Personally, I bemoan the lack of civics education in American schools (I'm part of the last few cohorts of American high-school students with a civics class being a graduation requirement.), and if I were a civics teacher I'd make a book report on _1984_ and/or _Animal Farm_ a mandatory part of passing my class. 

But I'm edging close to politics and so won't go further here.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Thanks for the tip. Added to my list.
> My PoliSci prof at university was a survivor of a Russian _shtetl _upbringing, conscription in the Red Army, German POW camp, Dachau, and the Israeli war of independence, with the scars and tattoos to prove it. We spent half a semester on Orwell and totalitarianism. If you haven't already, add Eric Hoffer's _The True Believer_ to your list. Another necessary asset in today's world.


Read it, may have been in Jr High School at the time. Mike Harrington's work on democratic Socialism along with Orwell left me a leftist but with a distrust of authoritarians of all kinds.

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## Glider (Apr 24, 2022)

There is a lot of effort being put into supplying the Ukraine armed forces with equipment that they are used to using and supporting. There is a lot of logic in that but it can only be a short term situation for the simple reason that there is only a limited supply of suitable equipment around.

The training on more common or more available western equipment needs to start now. The fighting isn't going to over in six months, this is now a long term situation and training on western equipment that will be available in six months has to start now. In armour probably this means Leopard 1 and M1 tanks as only these are likely to around in sufficient numbers.

In the Air we are looking mainly at F16 as a lot of nations used them and a lot of these are being or have been recently replaced. If the Nato nations are serious then we could continue production of the Typhoon the last of which are about to come off the production line but I cannot see people spending that kind of money.

Recently a lot of the emphasis has been on the ground equipment, but I would have thought a more urgent need is for aircraft. Can anyone think of a major ground war that has been won without control of the air since about 1920?

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## Glider (Apr 24, 2022)

On a different angle on the problems in Russia.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> Can anyone think of a major ground war that has been won without control of the air since about 1920?



The Vietnamese pulled it off against America, but the terrain fought-over was too different to make that a useful comparison, and of course the restraints America imposed upon itself too.

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## fubar57 (Apr 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> On a different angle on the problems in Russia.



Natural causes most likely


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 24, 2022)

Friends of the Clintons by chance?

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> Can anyone think of a major ground war that has been won without control of the air since about 1920?


Diem Bien Phu, but that was more a major battle that actually ended the conflcit.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Vietnamese pulled it off against America, but the terrain fought-over was too different to make that a useful comparison, and of course the restraints America imposed upon itself too.


If one was to examine all the major battles during the Vietnam War *militarily,* the US won hands down, (la Drang Valley, Khe Sanh, Tet and the Easter Offensive). As you say "restraints," make that "political restraints" were placed on the US military. Bumbling by politicians and some military leaders along with supporting an extremely corrupt South Vietnam government didn't help matters. During the whole time The US had almost complete control of the air over North and South Vietnam until the cease fire and withdraw in 1973. Saigon fell 2 years later. 

Getting back to the Ukraine - weaponry and tactics along with Russian blunders seem to be showing that control of the air may not be a necessity, at least in this conflict. It should make one wonder why Russia is not committing more of it's air force to this conflict and why it hasn't made a mass effort to eliminate the UAF???

Caught this one a few days ago...









Ukraine's Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft after influx of spare parts, senior US defense official says | CNN Politics


The Ukrainian Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft to its fleet because of an influx of spare parts, according to a senior US defense official.




www.cnn.com

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## at6 (Apr 24, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Natural causes most likely


There are natural causes in Russia?

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## WARSPITER (Apr 24, 2022)

at6 said:


> There are natural causes in Russia?


1. You failed. Therefore it is only "natural" that this will cause a Vodka induced accident whilst cleaning a gun.
2 and so on are the same but with other "natural" events leading to the same conclusion.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 24, 2022)

Polonium and Lead/Copper are natural elements...

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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2022)

Glider said:


> Can anyone think of a major ground war that has been won without control of the air since about 1920?



Afganistan?

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Personally, I bemoan the lack of civics education in American schools (I'm part of the last few cohorts of American high-school students with a civics class being a graduation requirement.),


Right on! My high school removed civics from the college prep curriculum, retaining it for vocational and "social arts" courses. Instead, we got a civics course labeled US History, with a thin smattering of history (which we'd just had in 8th grade) heavily weighted with political evolution of citizenship, rights and responsibilities, structures of government, and the judiciary system, presented in the light of the controversies that had shaped all these over time. We held town meetings, ran for office, elected officials, and had actual lawyers and judges come to class to hold court and "try cases". Today's kids don't get that experience, which is why we are where we are.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Mike Harrington's work on democratic Socialism


Gotta check that out. Thanks!


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> 1. You failed. Therefore it is only "natural" that this will cause a Vodka induced accident whilst cleaning a gun.
> 2 and so on are the same but with other "natural" events leading to the same conclusion.


And the family, as well as the miscreant, pays the price. "Nits grow into lice" and "the dead tell no tales".

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

Glider said:


> Recently a lot of the emphasis has been on the ground equipment, but I would have thought a more urgent need is for aircraft. Can anyone think of a major ground war that has been won without control of the air since about 1920?


Sometimes total control of the air isn't possible or necessary, just the ability to deny it to the enemy at critical times and locations. Think French Indo China, 1980s Afghanistan, and current day Ukraine. Potent anti-air and limited fighter assets and endurance can sometimes turn the trick.


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## Dimlee (Apr 25, 2022)

Another oil depot. 
Just another cigarette in the wrong place, I think.

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## ThomasP (Apr 25, 2022)

I am wondering just who is responsible for the oil depot fires - the UAF, disaffected RF personnel, Belarus and/or Russian dissidents/dissatisfied employees, SAS Illuminati, . . .? The Belarus dissidents already did a number on the rail system in Belarus, on the main lines between Russia and northern Ukraine, screwing up the RF logistics train. I wonder if there is something similar going on in Russia - but involving oil depots? Just a thought.

"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/23/ukraine-belarus-railway-saboteurs-russia/"


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Right on! My high school removed civics from the college prep curriculum, retaining it for vocational and "social arts" courses. Instead, we got a civics course labeled US History, with a thin smattering of history (which we'd just had in 8th grade) heavily weighted with political evolution of citizenship, rights and responsibilities, structures of government, and the judiciary system, presented in the light of the controversies that had shaped all these over time. We held town meetings, ran for office, elected officials, and had actual lawyers and judges come to class to hold court and "try cases". Today's kids don't get that experience, which is why we are where we are.



At the risk of sounding like my father, I think even "Schoolhouse Rock" would tax the attention-spans of some of the kids I see nowadays.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Another oil depot.
> Just another cigarette in the wrong place, I think.



Damned environmental activists!

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 25, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Afganistan?


And like Vietnam, major military battles won, but politics and the support of a corrupt government let to a political failure the minute US forces withdrew.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And like Vietnam, major military battles won, but politics and the support of a corrupt government let to a political failure the minute US forces withdrew.


I think that's the difference with Ukraine. Zelensky's done an excellent job in presenting Ukraine as a democratic, European-leaning nation based on western values. Of course this is inaccurate, with Ukraine beset by the same corruption as most former Russian held countries, but the West can see themselves in the Ukraine Zelensky has presented, and when we see European women and children killed, injured and fleeing, with their men standing their ground alongside their charismatic, democratically elected leader, against a brutal invader, everyone in the West wants to help. These aren't Afghans, Syrians, Rohingya, Uyghurs, Kurds or other peoples in the developing world needing help from oppressions... this is Europe, Europeans that look like us, that we directly identify with, in need of help. There's a lot of unfairness in what I write above, but it's how I best explain the West's enthusiasm to help.

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There's a lot of unfairness in what I write above



Indeed.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think that's the difference with Ukraine. Zelensky's done an excellent job in presenting Ukraine as a democratic, European-leaning nation based on western values. Of course this is inaccurate, with Ukraine beset by the same corruption as most former Russian held countries, but the West can see themselves in the Ukraine Zelensky has presented, and when we see European women and children killed, injured and fleeing, with their men standing their ground alongside their charismatic, democratically elected leader, against a brutal invader, everyone in the West wants to help. These aren't Afghans, Syrians, Rohingya, Uyghurs, Kurds or other peoples in the developing world needing help from oppressions... this is Europe, Europeans that look like us, that we directly identify with, in need of help. There's a lot of unfairness in what I write above, but it's how I best explain the West's enthusiasm to help.


Important difference: The mass of the population in Ukraine has united behind the government in power. This provides a structure that allows governement to function despite any corruption that may exist unlike in South Vietnam or Afghanistan where the government was as much an enemy of the population as were those invading from outside. This may or may not last but in the meantime provides a very different context for the people of Ukraine to those other situations

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 25, 2022)

Is there any chance that General Zaluzhnyi's army can break the siege of Mariupol? A hard drive southward with the newly arriving tanks and mobile artillery might pull it off.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It slightly disturbed my morning coffee.



That's the American version of a storm in a teacup, right?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

The reason why this war is being fought, is because the Ukraine people grew weary of the corrupt, Kremlin backed politicians in 2014 and got rid of them.

Georgia suffered a similar situation back in 2008 when that country was establishing closer ties to the EU.

We can be sure that if the people did the same in Belarus, Putin would have moved in to "protect ethnic Russians" in that region, too.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The reason why this war is being fought, is because the Ukraine people grew weary of the corrupt, Kremlin backed politicians in 2014 and got rid of them.
> 
> Georgia suffered a similar situation back in 2008 when that country was establishing closer ties to the EU.
> 
> We can be sure that if the people did the same in Belarus, Putin would have moved in to "protect ethnic Russians" in that region, too.



Exactly. So long as countries simply kowtow Putin, he's perfectly happy to let them be. As soon as that pro-Russian leadership is replaced by a western-leaning one, there arises an immediate and existential threat to ethnic Russians (or, at least, there would be such in Putin's mind) and so he feels the need to go in and protect "his" people. The problem, of course, is that so often such "threats" are fomented by Moscow.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> At the risk of sounding like my father, I think even "Schoolhouse Rock" would tax the attention-spans of some of the kids I see nowadays.



"Hey Wes, I'm confused, which was first, the Civil War or the Vietnam War? Paula told us in Social Studies, but those year numbers just don't stick in my head. Now she wants us to write a paper comparing the two, and I don't remember squat about it."
"We'll, if it helps you remember, think of this. My great-great grandfather fought in the Civil War, and I was in the Navy during Vietnam. Tell you what. I'll give you a list of videos and movies to download and watch, and I'll help you make a video that'll knock her off her chair. Deal?"
The trials and tribulations of a school audio-visual/library technician.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

But when the teachers lack the knowledge, the system becomes unstable.
Many years ago, my friend's son was studying the US Civil War and one of their studies, was to identify the various flags used by the belligerents.

My friend was furious because the "battle flag" of the Confederacy was represented by the British Union Jack and when his son questioned the flag as being British, his teacher gave him a failing grade...

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But when the teachers lack the knowledge, the system becomes unstable.
> Many years ago, my friend's son was studying the US Civil War and one of their studies, was to identify the various flags used by the belligerents.
> 
> My friend was furious because the "battle flag" of the Confederacy was represented by the British Union Jack and when his son questioned the flag as being British, his teacher gave him a failing grade...


Incredible. I frequently corrected my teachers in history class. I received poor marks in English class. I wouldn’t bother with homework since I spoke the language better than my teacher.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But when the teachers lack the knowledge, the system becomes unstable.





GrauGeist said:


> My friend was furious because the "battle flag" of the Confederacy was represented by the British Union Jack and when his son questioned the flag as being British, his teacher gave him a failing grade...


You make the job undoable and you wonder why you can't get good help? I chose the rechnician job rather than getting a teaching certificate for that reason.
My teachers in school were TEACHERS. Today's teachers are expected to be cops, psychologists, social workers, and oh yes, do a little teaching on the side.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> his son questioned the flag as being British, his teacher gave him a failing grade...


He failed in "Deportment" and disrespected authority.

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## GTX (Apr 25, 2022)

The artist, now grave digger, dealing with Russian abuses in Ukraine's Bucha


Retrieving scores of bodies has left a Bucha artist and tattooist waking each day with trembling hands that take hours to ease. WARNING: images and themes in this story may be distressing for some readers.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Apr 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Of course this is inaccurate, with Ukraine beset by the same corruption as most former Russian held countries


Russian held countries - former USSR and/or Warsaw Pact? Corruption levels are not the same in that region, they are different.
Just compare the ranks of Estonia, Ukraine, and Turkmenistan.








2021 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the results


How does your country measure up in the 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index?




www.transparency.org

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## Dimlee (Apr 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Important difference: The mass of the population in Ukraine has united behind the government in power. This provides a structure that allows governement to function despite any corruption that may exist unlike in South Vietnam or Afghanistan where the government was as much an enemy of the population as were those invading from outside. This may or may not last but in the meantime provides a very different context for the people of Ukraine to those other situations


We see the nation in the making, so to say. I lived in Ukraine for many years and made Kyiv my home base in 2010. Despite all the knowledge about the country, I'm astonished at how the nation grew up in the last several years. What doesn't kill us makes us stronger, and in Ukraine, it made people smarter, wiser, more resilient and united.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

President Zelensky will probably have a much stronger position to initiate anti-corruption policies after the war. I don’t know how committed he was to reduce corruption before the invasion, but he does have the eyes of the world on him now.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Russian held countries - former USSR and/or Warsaw Pact? Corruption levels are not the same in that region, they are different.
> Just compare the ranks of Estonia, Ukraine, and Turkmenistan.
> 
> 
> ...



And one only has to look at the tremendous strides made by Ukraine since 2014 in striving to overcome corruption, which led to the nation moving several places up the list (with most corrupt at the bottom). Ukraine is absolutely a work in progress...but I feel it's a good work and there are good people striving to do the right thing and overcome the mistakes of the past. Ukraine isn't perfect (which country is?) but, prior to the Russian invasion, they made concerted efforts to improve...and I applaud the leaders and the entire nation for that.

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## GTX (Apr 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> don’t know how committed he was to reduce corruption before the invasion, but he does have the eyes of the world on him now.


I understood that one of his themes during his election was anti-corruption.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

I didn’t want to sound too hopeful.


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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There's a lot of unfairness in what I write above.



Who said people are fair?

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## MiTasol (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But when the teachers lack the knowledge, the system becomes unstable.



And that applies here in Australia as much as in the USA. Forty odd years ago when my son was in grade two in Victoria we would spell check his homework. Often the teacher would mark a correctly spelt word as wrong. When we took her to task on it she said spelling is not important anyway. Soon after that became the norm in the state school system and the mantra when training teachers became "never traumatize a child by saying they are wrong".
Starting the following January our children went to a private school where spelling WAS important. In year 12 our oldest got 86% average and youngest got 96.6% so we have never regretted the expense.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> President Zelensky will probably have a much stronger position to initiate anti-corruption policies after the war.


So will the Russians (once Putin is dead, likely natural cases before 2025), as part of their post-Putin national reckoning and attempt at reintroducting themselves to the free world.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 25, 2022)

I don't think they will have a choice if they want to grow.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I don't think they will have a choice if they want to grow.


The problem is if yet another kleptocratic despot gains power he won't care about anything but sheering the wool and dining on mutton so long as any of the sheep survive.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

Transnistria in the news:
_
Several explosions have hit the state security ministry in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, the interior ministry said on its Telegram channel.

The ministry said the building appeared to have been hit with rocket-propelled grenades, but it said no one was injured.

It comes days after a Russian general suggested Moscow wanted to take full control of southern Ukraine, giving Russia access to the separatist region of Moldova which it supports.

He said there was "oppression of the Russian-speaking population" in Transnistria, a claim which had also been made - without evidence - to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine's defence ministry said the incident was a "planned provocation" by Russia itself to instil "panic and anti-Ukrainian sentiment".

A small Russian-speaking breakaway region, Transnistria borders Ukraine from the west. It claimed independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in a bloody conflict, but is not recognised internationally and officially remains part of Moldova._

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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Transnistria in the news:
> 
> _Several explosions have hit the state security ministry in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, the interior ministry said on its Telegram channel.
> 
> ...


Well, I sure didn't see that coming...

Sarcasm aside, the worst thing the Russians can do at this point, is try to divide their numbers by going to Transneistra's "rescue".
Right now, the Russian Army is safe in numbers, once they expose themselves in southern Ukraine with a contingent, they'll get whittled down.

It will also most likely fast-track reunification with Romania, at which point, Moldovan territory is NATO territory and Russia will have to tread very lightly.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

More nonsense from Lavrov....invading a country isn't war but providing weapons to that invaded country is war...you can't make this stuff up:
_
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said deliveries of Western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is "in essence engaged in war with Russia".

In an interview aired on Monday, he said: "These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia's military acting within the context of the special operation."

Lavrov also told state television: "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."_


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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

Funny how Russia also seems to think that attacking targets with a warship is ok, but when it gets sunk because the defenders don't like being attacked, it's considered an "act of war".

And last time I checked, Russian military backed "separatists" engaging in armed conflict in a neighboring nation is a "proxy war".

So here we are, more whiney bitch tears from the schoolyard bully...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Incredible. I frequently corrected my teachers in history class. I received poor marks in English class. I wouldn’t bother with homework since I spoke the language better than my teacher.



I did that in one history class where the teacher was fool enough to base 80% of the grade on weekly tests, 10% on mid-term and final tests, and 10% on homework. He got mad at me one day when again I didn't turn in a homework assignment and asked me why I refused to do them. "I already know this stuff. Look at my test scores." 

I passed the class with an A because I aced all the tests.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

Good artical on the current situation in Moldova:


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## swampyankee (Apr 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You make the job undoable and you wonder why you can't get good help? I chose the rechnician job rather than getting a teaching certificate for that reason.
> My teachers in school were TEACHERS. Today's teachers are expected to be cops, psychologists, social workers, and oh yes, do a little teaching on the side.


Alas, at least in the US, there is a very strong cabal of politicians and ideologues who want to cripple public education and replace it with their newspeak falsehoods.

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## gumbyk (Apr 25, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You make the job undoable and you wonder why you can't get good help? I chose the rechnician job rather than getting a teaching certificate for that reason.
> My teachers in school were TEACHERS. Today's teachers are expected to be cops, psychologists, social workers, and oh yes, do a little teaching on the side.


I'm on the Board at our school, and didn't realise how much sh1t teachers have to do that isn't teaching.
It seems that they're the ones picking up the pieces for parents that can't or won't do their job.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

If Moldova were to try and unify with Romania (NATO), how would Transnistria figure in it?


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## wlewisiii (Apr 25, 2022)

My guess is Moldova would be best off just saying "Be careful what you wish for. You might get it. Bye" to Transnistria and getting under the NATO umbrella by rejoining with Romania tomorrow.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If Moldova were to try and unify with Romania (NATO), how would Transnistria figure in it?



Earlier in the thread, we were suggesting that Ukraine should attack Transnistria to liberate it and give it back to Moldova. The problem for Moldova is that the Dnister River forms a natural barrier between Transnistria and the rest of Moldova, and the Moldovan military was unable to get across that barrier. HOWEVER (capitals intentional), there's no such barrier to the northeast of Transnistria, which means it could be easily attacked by Ukrainian forces.

The hypothesis is that if Ukraine attacks Transnistria, Russia won't be able to do anything because its forces are committed elsewhere. Ukrainian forces working in conjunction with the Moldovan military might be able to eradicate the Russian separatist forces in Transnistria, thus reunifying it with Moldova. If Moldova then rejoins Romania (it was part of the country for many years), then Moldova automatically gets NATO protection, the Transnistria problem is resolved...and, better yet, there isn't a damn thing that Putin can do about it.

Thus the context for my comment about explosions in Transnistria. If we are seeing efforts by Moldova to re-take Transnistria, then we could be seeing something akin to the theory that we developed here. 

The more I think about it, the more I like this idea.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

That's what I was thinking. With Russian aircraft restricted from NATO airspace, a corridor to the sea might get interesting for our plucky little Stalinists.


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## GrauGeist (Apr 25, 2022)

And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.

If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands...

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## ThomasP (Apr 25, 2022)

🤔Hmmm . . .

February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.

March 31 Explosion at Russian arms depot in Belgorod, 25 miles (40 km) from the Ukraine border. 4 people injured. Although initial media reports claimed that the explosion was caused by a UAF Tochka-U missile strike, Russian officials subsequently reported that the explosion was caused by a fire. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces.

April 1 Major fire at the fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, 21 miles (34 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters were responsible. However, Secretary of Ukraine's national security council Oleksiy Danilov, denied responsibility for the attack. "For some reason, they say that we did it, but in fact this does not correspond with reality," he said on Ukrainian television. Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych said: "We are holding defensive military operations on our own territory … Everything that happens on Russian territory is the responsibility of the Russian leadership. All questions to them."

April 21 Major fire breaks out at Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma, around 210 miles ENE of Moscow and about 540 miles (870 km) from the Ukraine border. The plant is described as "the largest producer of butyl acetate and industrial solvents in Russia" and possibly including eastern Europe. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 21 Major fire at the Russian Defense Ministry's Central Research Institute in the city of Tver, 180 kilometers northwest of Moscow and 350+ miles (564+ km) from the Ukraine border. 17 dead and "dozens" injured. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 23 Russian media report that explosive projectiles hit residential buildings in the Bryansk region. 7 injured. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters are responsible. (Western COMINT and HUMINT says that the local AAA units fired at a drone (maybe) and the damage to the residential buildings and injuries to people were caused by the AAA projectiles.)

April 24 Major fires at 2 large oil depots (1 civilian and 1 military) in the city of Bryansk, 95 miles (154 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials report no injuries or deaths, and say they are investigating. Note that the civilian oil depot is connected to the world's longest oil pipeline (Druzhba) feeding Russian oil to Europe.

So far, Ukraine has either denied or not responded to suggestions that it has struck targets inside Russia.

edited, with some bits added

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## buffnut453 (Apr 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.
> 
> If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands...



And AGAIN...we can only hope!

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## SaparotRob (Apr 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> 🤔Hmmm . . .
> 
> February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.
> 
> ...


Do not fall for fake news. According to Russian state media, it was strictly due to Russian incompetence.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> According to Russian state media, it was strictly due to Russian incompetence.


Ideologically motivated "incompetence"?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 25, 2022)

Russia is hitting the Ukrainain railway networks. It’s 950 miles from Lviv to Dnipro, and then another 200 miles to the frontlines. Does Ukraine have the means to repair the railways? I wonder if Poles and other foreign non-combatants have been brought in to help with repairs.


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## ThomasP (Apr 25, 2022)

Added another recent incident to my post#4,884

April 21 Major fire breaks out at Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma, around 340 km ENE of Moscow and 540 miles (870 km) from the Ukraine border. The plant is described as "the largest producer of butyl acetate and industrial solvents in Russia" and possibly including eastern Europe. Russian officials say they are investigating.

The plant became a total loss. Note that the chemical plant produces a large amount of additives for use in fuels also.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 25, 2022)

Seems like a lot of fuel-production resources inside Russia are having, uh, _issues_.

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## ThomasP (Apr 25, 2022)

Although I am familiar with the concepts used in computer systems and networks, I am not particularly knowledgable concerning anything above basic computer programming. But I have been told by someone who is very capable in the area that the Cyber Partisans (which I mentioned in my post#4,884 up-thread) have embedded their channel(s) in the Telegram network system so thoroughly, that if the Russians want to stop them from operating over Telegram they will have to shut down the Telegram network system for something like 90% of its subscribers.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 26, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Alas, at least in the US, there is a very strong cabal of politicians and ideologues who want to cripple public education and replace it with their newspeak falsehoods.


If you get to teach your alternate reality as historical fact, after a couple generations you've done away with those pesky dissenters. Or so you imagine.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

Let’s get back to the topic, and get away from the politically fueled off topic stuff gents.

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## MiTasol (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.
> 
> If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, *I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands*...



If I believed in god I would pray for that.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> If I believed in god I would pray for that.


Well, here's something to consider.

Putin rose through the ranks from a nobody to "imperious leader" (just like a WWI Corporal).

He dreams of restoring the glory of the Soviet Union (just lime the thousand year Reich).

Putin has used "protecting ethnic Russians" as a means to regain territory lost (just like Germany did in the late 30's).

Putin used a "false flag" ruse to justify an invasion in 2014 (like Hitler did in 1939).

Putin invaded the Ukraine under the auspices of fighting Nazis (Germany invaded the Soviet Union under the auspices of fighting Communism).

Putin's invasion has galvanized the free world against Russia much like Germany galvanized the world against it eight decades ago.

Germany's efforts proved to be a tactical challenge to stop and overcome, Russia, not so much.

In the end, Hitler took a bullet to the head - we can only hope Putin will follow Hitler's example.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 26, 2022)

Su-34 down in Balakliya (Kharkiv oblast) on the 25th.



Speculation is that it was hit by Starstreak. Flat spin and another video shows a burst of fire coming from one engine.

Both occupants ejected.

So far confirmed (photo/video) Su-34 losses are 8 aircraft. Total verified Russian fixed wing losses are 25-30 aircraft, depending on open intelligence source. Ukraine claims 181 Russian aircraft downed, including seven in the last three days.

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## MiTasol (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, here's something to consider.
> 
> Putin rose through the ranks from a nobody to "imperious leader" (just like a WWI Corporal).
> 
> ...



You mean die of the famous Russian "natural causes".

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## ThomasP (Apr 26, 2022)

Here is a link to a pretty good summary of what weaponry and other military equipment the US has sent/is currently scheduled to send to Ukraine:

"Ghost drones, helicopters and howitzers: Here's a look at the weapons the U.S. is sending Ukraine"

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

A nice boost to Ukraine mobile air defence.









Germany Signals Shift on Weapons to Ukraine With Tank Deliveries


Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration signaled more weapons will flow to Ukraine after Germany took a first step to supply heavy weapons to the country by allowing delivery of anti-aircraft tanks to counter Russia’s invasion.




www.bloomberg.com





Not exactly 2020s tech, but neither are the Russians.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

This is exactly what I feared would happen. The UN boss is going to call for a ceasefire, gallingly deciding to meet with Putin before Zelensky!

We must end the war - UN secretary general tells Lavrov

And Putin might just say sure, and then keep all the territorial gains. The UN boss should instead be demanding that Russia return the seized territory. Ukraine must not accept a ceasefire while their territories been held. They’ll lose the Peace for certain if they do.

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## pgeno71 (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Putin's invasion has galvanized the free world against Russia much like Germany galvanized the world against it eight decades ago.


All good points, but one big difference is Hitler was facing invading Allied armies from both sides. Putin is facing a proxy war because the West is afraid to call his nuclear card.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> All good points, but one big difference is Hitler was facing invading Allied armies from both sides. Putin is facing a proxy war because the West is afraid to call his nuclear card.


The West is enjoying the best of both worlds. They get to use their latest weapons to stomp and humiliate a clearly militarily obsolete and incompetent Russia whilst not overly risking a nuclear war. If you're a Western government, especially its Defence and State Departments, or even better, a Western arms manufacturer, what's not to like? Plus they get to show a flick of the sword to warn China and reassure Taiwan that territories that breakaway from despots to become western democracies will be supported/defended.

This war with Russia is the first time I think in my lifetime (b.1971) where the West has a clear binary war to fight. There is a clear bad guy; despotic, murderous Russia and a clear good guy; democratic, heroic Ukraine. Everything else up to now has seen the West stomping North Africans, Middle Easterners and Latin Americans for ambiguous WoT and/or WoD goals, oil/resource access, backing up friendly tyrants, regime change, etc. But this is as close to a localized WW2 fight between clearly good and bad as we can get.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is exactly what I feared would happen. The UN boss is going to call for a ceasefire, gallingly deciding to meet with Putin before Zelensky!
> 
> We must end the war - UN secretary general tells Lavrov
> 
> And Putin might just say sure, and then keep all the territorial gains. The UN boss should instead be demanding that Russia return the seized territory. Ukraine must not accept a ceasefire while their territories been held. They’ll lose the Peace for certain if they do.



It doesn't matter what happens in a Guterres/Putin meeting if the Ukrainians will not accede to the lost territories, and Zelenskyy has already said that he won't.

Meanwhile:

_
More heavy fighting was reported today in eastern and southern Ukraine as Russia continues its assault, although Ukrainian military officials say they've repelled attacks in some areas.

Ukrainian officials describe ground assaults and artillery strikes by the Russian army along much of the front. Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesman for Ukraine's armed forces, says Ukraine's army pushed back assaults in the Donbas region.

"Six enemy attacks have been repelled," Shtupun says, "with four Russian tanks and five Russian artillery systems destroyed."

The latest fighting comes as U.S. officials plan to meet in Europe with other NATO countries in a bid to increase military support for Ukraine.

In an interview with state television, meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said NATO's support for Ukraine heightens the danger of nuclear war, adding that "the risks are now considerable."_









War in Ukraine live updates: The U.N. predicts more than 8 million people will flee Ukraine as refugees


The number is more than double what the U.N.'s refugee agency projected in February when Russia invaded the country. The vast majority of those who have already left are women and children.



www.npr.org

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## GrauGeist (Apr 26, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> All good points, but one big difference is Hitler was facing invading Allied armies from both sides. Putin is facing a proxy war because the West is afraid to call his nuclear card.


If you recall, prior to the U.S. entry into WWII, the U.S. was supplying material to Britain as they were managing to hold off Germany.

Then when Germany turned on the Soviet Union, the Allies provided material to them.

The entire world is sending aid to the Ukraine, not just "the West".

If the world had responded to Poland the same way in 1939, things would have been quite different.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you recall, prior to the U.S. entry into WWII, the U.S. was supplying material to Britain as they were managing to hold off Germany.
> 
> Then when Germany turned on the Soviet Union, the Allies provided material to them.
> 
> ...



Poland’s fate would not have changed. They were dealing with two aggressors invading from the east and west. Furthermore, everything would have taken longer to be shipped. Today munitions and equipment can be put on aircraft and in a matter of hours are on the ground. Back then everything would have taken weeks and travelled by boat across vast oceans, then most likely per rail to its ultimate destination.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you recall, prior to the U.S. entry into WWII, the U.S. was supplying material to Britain as they were managing to hold off Germany.
> 
> Then when Germany turned on the Soviet Union, the Allies provided material to them.
> 
> ...



There's a big difference: geography. With Ukraine, the world can funnel supplies through the Polish border. In 1939, there was no way to get aid to Poland, aside from trying to force the Skagerrak with aid convoys past U-boats. I suppose you could ship to the Med and then across the Balkans, but by the time the first trainload arrives the Germans and Russians are toasting their success.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 26, 2022)

Furthermore, supplies would have had to be shipped through a friendly nation to get to Poland. There weren't any adjacent to Poland. Germany and the Slovakian puppet state and the USSR were hostile aggressors. Hungary and Romania were pro-axis neutrals. The Baltic was controlled by the German Navy.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 26, 2022)

Well, many nations supplied Finland during the Soviet Union's "special operation", too.

But my point about Poland, was if the world responded in the same fashion (at the time) as it has done with Ukraine today, the situation may have had a different outcome.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Thanks, 

 Greg Boeser
, couldn't remember the political stances of the Balkan countries on that hypothetical route.

Poland's goose was cooked even before the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, though, as the Poles refused to permit Soviet forces on their soil, while the French and British were relying on the Soviets to help out after the former had given their vapid guarantees to Poland.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There's a big difference: geography. With Ukraine, the world can funnel supplies through the Polish border. In 1939, there was no way to get aid to Poland, aside from trying to force the Skagerrak with aid convoys past U-boats. I suppose you could ship to the Med and then across the Balkans, but by the time the first trainload arrives the Germans and Russians are toasting their success.



This too.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Furthermore, supplies would have had to be shipped through a friendly nation to get to Poland. There weren't any adjacent to Poland. Germany and the Slovakian puppet state and the USSR were hostile aggressors. Hungary and Romania were pro-axis neutrals. The Baltic was controlled by the German Navy.



Ding, Ding, Ding

Hence the vast oceans.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

A
 Admiral Beez
, how would you get supplies to Poland in 1939 with enough time to change the outcome? Don’t just disagree, explain why you disagree. Otherwise there is no point to the discussion.

What countries were the US, England, France, let alone the “rest of the world” going to funnel supplies through?

What country in 1939 was prepared and had the stocks to supply Poland with munitions and equipment?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 26, 2022)

Bolster Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia's defenses and use them as a supply corridor.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Furthermore, supplies would have had to be shipped through a friendly nation to get to Poland. There weren't any adjacent to Poland. Germany and the Slovakian puppet state and the USSR were hostile aggressors. Hungary and Romania were pro-axis neutrals. The Baltic was controlled by the German Navy.


I think Hungary at the time (summer 1939) was more pro polish and less Axis leaning.

The fought a war with recent born Slovakia in March 1939 just to recover some territory and get a common border with Poland.

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## special ed (Apr 26, 2022)

Don't forget the US was training with broomstick machineguns and trucks for tanks. The first prototypes of WW2 workhorse aircraft were making their first flights & production lines being set up. What could we send?

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## fubar57 (Apr 26, 2022)

special ed said:


> Don't forget the US was training with broomstick machineguns and trucks for tanks. The first prototypes of WW2 workhorse aircraft were making their first flights & production lines being set up. What could we send?


Right now I'm reading all the LIFE magazines pertaining to the war years. Interesting to see what Life knew then and what we know now. The last issue I read had air spotter silhouettes for all U.S. military aircraft except the B-19 which was still top secret in 1941 according to LIFE

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Bolster Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia's defenses and use them as a supply corridor.



That is certainly an option, however, it does not change how the munitions and equipment was going to be transported, and the amount of time needed to transport.

Remember the discussion was about had the world responded to the invasion of Poland in 1939 as they had to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

special ed said:


> Don't forget the US was training with broomstick machineguns and trucks for tanks. The first prototypes of WW2 workhorse aircraft were making their first flights & production lines being set up. What could we send?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Don’t just disagree, explain why you disagree. Otherwise there is no point to the discussion.


This is not the place. The point of this discussion is Ukraine. I disagree with your post but disagree more with taking threads off topic.






But it would be a good topic as a new thread. How to help Poland before Sept 1939?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is not the place. The point of this discussion is Ukraine. I disagree with your post but disagree more with taking threads off topic.
> 
> View attachment 665897
> 
> ...



We always allow a lil bit of off topic banter as long as it is related to the topic. Its part of healthy discussion.

But sure, go ahead and start a new thread. I want to hear how the “rest of the world” was going to get massive amounts of supplies to Poland after Germany and Russia invaded, because that is what you disagreed with.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Bolster Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia's defenses and use them as a supply corridor.



Not really an option. The following is from Wiki (yes...I know) but it gives a gist of the problems the three tiny Baltic nations faced in 1939. The focus is Latvia but the others were little different:
_
Early in the morning of 24 August 1939, the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany signed a 10-year non-aggression pact, called the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.[52]​ The pact contained a secret protocol, revealed only after Germany's defeat in 1945, according to which the states of Northern and Eastern Europe were divided into German and Soviet "spheres of influence".[53]​ In the north, Latvia, Finland and Estonia were assigned to the Soviet sphere.[53]​ A week later, on 1 September 1939, Germany invaded Poland; on 17 September, the Soviet Union invaded Poland as well.[54]​: 32 ​

After the conclusion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, most of the Baltic Germans left Latvia by agreement between Ulmanis's government and Nazi Germany under the Heim ins Reich programme.[55]​ In total 50,000 Baltic Germans left by the deadline of December 1939, with 1,600 remaining to conclude business and 13,000 choosing to remain in Latvia.[55]​ Most of those who remained left for Germany in summer 1940, when a second resettlement scheme was agreed.[56]​ The racially approved being resettled mainly in Poland, being given land and businesses in exchange for the money they had received from the sale of their previous assets.[54]​: 46 ​

On 5 October 1939, Latvia was forced to accept a "mutual assistance" pact with the Soviet Union, granting the Soviets the right to station between 25,000 and 30,000 troops on Latvian territory.[57]​ State administrators were murdered and replaced by Soviet cadres.[58]​ Elections were held with single pro-Soviet candidates listed for many positions. The resulting people's assembly immediately requested admission into the USSR, which the Soviet Union granted.[58]​ Latvia, then a puppet government, was headed by Augusts Kirhenšteins.[59]​ The Soviet Union incorporated Latvia on 5 August 1940, as the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic._


The 5 Oct 39 "mutual assistance pact" doesn't give a lot of time for Latvia to be a funnel for arms to Poland...and it's a route that could easily be closed given the distance of any Allies from the Baltic nations.

One other thing that leapt out at me from the Wiki page was the rather chilling part of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact about respective "spheres of influence" for Nazi Germany and the USSR. We're hearing that EXACT term being used by Moscow to rationalize its actions today in Ukraine....because the west is impinging on what Moscow sees as its rightful area of hegemony. We truly are seeing efforts to replay WW2 and resurrect the USSR.

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 26, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> 🤔Hmmm . . .
> 
> February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.
> 
> ...



Add this one too, near North Korea.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> A nice boost to Ukraine mobile air defence.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I really like this decision...it gives the Ukrainian military an additional dimension of air defence. It's incredibly frustrating, however, to see the news media referring to these as "tanks."

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This war with Russia is the first time I think in my lifetime (b.1971) where the West has a clear binary war to fight. There is a clear bad guy; despotic, murderous Russia and a clear good guy; democratic, heroic Ukraine. Everything else up to now has seen the West stomping North Africans, Middle Easterners and Latin Americans for ambiguous WoT and/or WoD goals, oil/resource access, backing up friendly tyrants, regime change, etc. But this is as close to a localized WW2 fight between clearly good and bad as we can get.



Apart from Desert Storm where there was a clear good-guy who was invaded by a clear bad-guy. Now...Kuwait isn't a paragon of democracy or western standards, but I think the global response to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was pretty close to the "clear binary war" that you describe.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Apart from Desert Storm where there was a clear good-guy who was invaded by a clear bad-guy. Now...Kuwait isn't a paragon of democracy or western standards, but I think the global response to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was pretty close to the "clear binary war" that you describe.



To be fair, that falls under the rubric of "access to oil/resources" that 
A
 Admiral Beez
has mentioned. Most of us understood we were fighting for cheap gas, not Kuwaiti "democracy".

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## MiTasol (Apr 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you recall, prior to the U.S. entry into WWII, the U.S. was supplying material to Britain as they were managing to hold off Germany.
> 
> Then when Germany turned on the Soviet Union, the Allies provided material to them.
> 
> ...



Darn.

I always thought China and India were part of this world

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## Crimea_River (Apr 26, 2022)

Its that world outside the US and its allies thing again. Don't forget all the African nations that abstained or voted for Russia as well.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To be fair, that falls under the rubric of "access to oil/resources" that
> A
> Admiral Beez
> has mentioned. Most of us understood we were fighting for cheap gas, not Kuwaiti "democracy".



Well....kindda but the "we want cheap oil" isn't a sufficient reason. In relative terms, Kuwait wasn't a massive oil producer in 1990...indeed, prior to Desert Storm, oil from Iraq was actually piped to Kuwait for processing. The combined amount of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil production wasn't sufficient to move Iraq above any of the "big 3" oil producers. Thus an argument could be made that, if the world had simply allowed Saddam to take over Kuwait, the impact on oil prices would have been insignificant because any attempt by Saddam to unilaterally increase prices could have been easily checked by other nations simply increasing their production to stabilize global prices.

Arguably, any global oil price increases were temporary in nature and were actually brought on by the Gulf War because of the uncertainty that conflict inevitably invokes. Iraq was, after all, the 4th largest military in the world. Everyone expected a long, drawn out fight with both supply and demand affected, thus prices increased. If the world had just shrugged and said "Meh...Saddam, you can have Kuwait" you can pretty much guarantee that oil prices wouldn't have changed much at all.

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## Glider (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I really like this decision...it gives the Ukrainian military an additional dimension of air defence. It's incredibly frustrating, however, to see the news media referring to these as "tanks."


I remember going to a Farnborough Air Show where the Gepard was on display. It was a simple but effective display. The turret was tracking the aircraft doing their display's and a screen was available and you could just watch the sight following the display's.

As I said, simple but effective


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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> I remember going to a Farnborough Air Show where the Gepard was on display. It was a simple but effective display. The turret was tracking the aircraft doing their display's and a screen was available and you could just watch the sight following the display's.
> 
> As I said, simple but effective



Plus the weapon has the advantage of looking like it belongs on a Star Wars movie set. It's just COOL LOOKING!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well....kindda but the "we want cheap oil" isn't a sufficient reason. In relative terms, Kuwait wasn't a massive oil producer in 1990...indeed, prior to Desert Storm, oil from Iraq was actually piped to Kuwait for processing. The combined amount of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil production wasn't sufficient to move Iraq above any of the "big 3" oil producers. Thus an argument could be made that, if the world had simply allowed Saddam to take over Kuwait, the impact on oil prices would have been insignificant because any attempt by Saddam to unilaterally increase prices could have been easily checked by other nations simply increasing their production to stabilize global prices.
> 
> Arguably, any global oil price increases were temporary in nature and were actually brought on by the Gulf War because of the uncertainty that conflict inevitably invokes. Iraq was, after all, the 4th largest military in the world. Everyone expected a long, drawn out fight with both supply and demand affected, thus prices increased. If the world had just shrugged and said "Meh...Saddam, you can have Kuwait" you can pretty much guarantee that oil prices wouldn't have changed much at all.



My understanding was that by taking Kuwait, Hussein was hoping to corner around 20% of the known reserves of that time, which would have given him leverage over pricing.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My understanding was that by taking Kuwait, Hussein was hoping to corner around 20% of the known reserves of that time, which would have given him leverage over pricing.



Maybe...but you still need to get those reserves out of the ground and persuade somebody to pay for them. According to some sources I've seen, Kuwaiti oil production was less than half that of Iraq in 1990...and Kuwait wasn't even in the top-10 of world oil producers. To me that just doesn't sound like the sort of leverage that could be executed immediately. It would be a long-term strategy which, as I noted, could have been offset by other means.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

_
Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report.

Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any country that refuses Russian President Vladimir Putin's stipulation that countries pay for Russia's gas in rubles, but the European Union has insisted that in doing so, sanctions on Russia would be breeched.

Poland and Bulgaria are both members of the European Union, and the decision to cut off their gas is a major escalation in the fight. Both countries are also members of NATO.

Poland has also served as the main country housing refugees from neighboring Ukraine.

The warnings that gas would soon be cut off came from two different suppliers, PGNiG and Gazprom, according to Bloomberg._









Russia to cut off gas supply to Poland


Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report. Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any coun…




thehill.com





So, less gas for Poles and Hungarians, and less money for the Russians. Who suffers more?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Maybe...but you still need to get those reserves out of the ground and persuade somebody to pay for them. According to some sources I've seen, Kuwaiti oil production was less than half that of Iraq in 1990...and Kuwait wasn't even in the top-10 of world oil producers. To me that just doesn't sound like the sort of leverage that could be executed immediately. It would be a long-term strategy which, as I noted, could have been offset by other means.



Right, but we both know that markets respond skittish to even minor shocks. Look at what's happened at the gas pumps in the last three months for a fresh example of that fear/gouging mentality.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report.
> 
> Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any country that refuses Russian President Vladimir Putin's stipulation that countries pay for Russia's gas in rubles, but the European Union has insisted that in doing so, sanctions on Russia would be breeched.
> 
> ...



Analysis on the BBC suggests Poland won't be impacted much. Apparently, their strategic gas reserve stores are 70% full and, with summer coming, demand will drop. Poland had already announced a plan to stop using Russian gas by the end of this year anyway...so any benefits for Russia in cutting off the supplies seem rather moot at this point.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but we both know that markets respond skittish to even minor shocks. Look at what's happened at the gas pumps in the last three months for a fresh example of that fear/gouging mentality.



That's exactly my point. The idea that the West (and others) would embark on a war to liberate Kuwait caused a LOT of market volatility. If they'd just allowed Saddam to keep Kuwait without getting all excited about it, then I reckon the market fluctuations would have been a lot less and would have subsided sooner. As it was, the markets had 6 months of speculation about how a war with the world's 4th-largest military would go...and that had a big impact on prices. If the world had said "Meh" back in August 1990, I reckon the markets would have been back to normal before Halloween.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Analysis on the BBC suggests Poland won't be impacted much. Apparently, their strategic gas reserve stores are 70% full and, with summer coming, demand will drop. Poland had already announced a plan to stop using Russian gas by the end of this year anyway...so any benefits for Russia in cutting off the supplies seem rather moot at this point.



Let us hope the Beeb is right about this. The Poles have been magnificent in helping Ukraine both in taking in refugees and providing what aid they could.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> If the world had said "Meh" back in August 1990, I reckon the markets would have been back to normal before Halloween.



When you consider that at the time Hussein was the only known user of chemical weapons against folks, I don't think the markets would have been so copacetic. The guy wasn't known for being stable, which is what markets rely upon.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

More on the Transnistria...Ukraine has expressed solidarity with Moldova:
_
As we've been reporting, there have been a series of explosions over the last couple of days in Transnistria, the Russian-controlled slice of territory in Moldova bordering Ukraine.

Ukraine's foreign ministry has pledged its support for Moldova's territorial integrity and accused Russia of trying to create unrest and destabilise the area.

It suggested Russia was attempting to drag the area into its war against Ukraine.

Writing on Twitter, Mykhaylo Podolyak, a Ukraine presidential aide, said "Ukraine will definitely ensure strategic security of the region. But we need to work as a team".

The Russian army has been fighting alongside separatists in Transnistria since the early 1990s._

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I always thought China and India were part of this world


Just my two pennies, but enough with these gotcha moment fails.

India's aid to Ukraine








India's second tranche of humanitarian aid to Ukraine arrives in Romania by IAF flight | India News - Times of India


India News: BUCHAREST: India's second tranche of humanitarian aid to Ukraine arrived in Romania by IAF flight on Wednesday and will be further transported to war-.




timesofindia.indiatimes.com





China's aid to Ukraine








China says it will offer 10 million yuan more of humanitarian aid to Ukraine


The Chinese Red Cross will offer an additional 10 million yuan ($1.57 million) of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on Monday.




www.reuters.com





Aid to Ukraine needn't always be weapons, but any aid that helps keep Ukrainians healthy and fed contributes to the nation's combat capability.



GrauGeist said:


> The entire world is sending aid to the Ukraine, not just "the West".


Africa aside, most of the world is in. List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

This is interesting.... an admission of how close the US shared its intel and how deep their sources are.

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops








U.S. intel helped Ukraine shoot down Russian plane carrying troops


Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News.




www.nbcnews.com


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## gumbyk (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is interesting.... an admission of how close the US shared its intel and how deep their sources are.
> 
> U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
> 
> ...


Apparently there was a US intel aircraft in the region when the Moskva was hit too.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

_
Raytheon Technologies, the maker of the thousands of Stinger missiles sent to Ukraine amid its war with Russia, will not be able to quickly produce more of the weapons due to lack of parts and materials, the company's CEO said Tuesday. 

Raytheon won't be able to ramp up production of Stinger anti-aircraft systems until at least 2023, as the company must "redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head," due to some components no longer being commercially available, CEO Greg Hayes told investors during a Tuesday earnings call. 

That redesign is "going to take us a little bit of time," Hayes said. 

In addition, Raytheon's production line is only able to build a limited number of Stingers and will need a big commitment from the U.S. government to fund a sharp increase in production, factors that mean missile assembly won't be ramped up until next year at the earliest, he predicted. 

The United States has given more than $3.7 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country on Feb. 24. That amount includes more than 1,400 Stingers, which are portable systems that can be used to shoot down aircraft and drones. 

European nations have also pulled hundreds of Stingers from their stockpiles for Kyiv. 

But until the war, the Army had been moving to retire Stingers, moving instead toward a new portable anti-air missile to be built by 2028. 

That drawdown means a slowed timeline to replenish stocks. 

"We've been working with the [Defense Department] for the last couple of weeks, we're actively trying to source some of the material, but unfortunately, DOD hasn't bought a Stinger in about 18 years and some of the components are no longer commercially available," Hayes said. _









Raytheon CEO warns of delays in Stinger missile production


Raytheon Technologies, the maker of the thousands of Stinger missiles sent to Ukraine amid its war with Russia, will not be able to quickly produce more of the weapons due to lack of parts and mate…




thehill.com





As mentioned upthread, while our stocks are being drawn down, we may have to wait some time to replenish them.

I'm okay with it, myself, given that we'll likely not be facing any other demands in the next few years. But this is certainly something to think about.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Raytheon Technologies, the maker of the thousands of Stinger missiles sent to Ukraine amid its war with Russia, will not be able to quickly produce more of the weapons due to lack of parts and materials, the company's CEO said Tuesday.
> 
> Raytheon won't be able to ramp up production of Stinger anti-aircraft systems until at least 2023, as the company must "redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head," due to some components no longer being commercially available, CEO Greg Hayes told investors during a Tuesday earnings call.
> 
> ...


There are only two likely targets for US Army or USMC deployed Stingers; Russian or Chinese combat aircraft. The Ukrainians are handling the former by proxy well enough. Better to use them and reduce Russian's air force, then to let them expire or become obsolete.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 26, 2022)

Ah, so now we know the game! Russia feints with its invasion of Ukraine, drawing down weapons stockpiles in Western nations. Then China, while everyone is distracted, invades Taiwan. Noone can stop them because everyone is out of ammunition!
Those Chinese! So clever!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There are only two likely targets for US Army or USMC deployed Stingers; Russian or Chinese combat aircraft. The Ukrainians are handling the former by proxy well enough. Better to use them and reduce Russian's air force, then to let them expire or become obsolete.



Right, but the point is that they're using existing stock without a working production line to replace those missiles. That stock was to tide the US Army over until the Stinger's replacement came available in five or six years.

Now, there's a shortfall, and no production to make up for it. That's the problem, and the point of my post.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Now, there's a shortfall, and no production to make up for it. That's the problem, and the point of my post.


I’m glad we found out now that the potential burn rate far exceeds the likely replacement rate. Had a conventional WW3 really broken out in Europe presumably the US would have used their Stingers at an even faster rate. Didn‘t the US expect to need these things in a hurry one day?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m glad we found out now that the potential burn rate far exceeds the likely replacement rate. Had a conventional WW3 really broken out in Europe presumably the US would have used their Stingers at an even faster rate. Didn‘t the US expect to need these things in a hurry one day?



You're probably going to use fewer Stingers when you have air superiority or supremacy, along with multiple Patriot layouts ... just sayin'.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 26, 2022)

I'm sure the merry little elves who tinker away at things that go boom have lots of goodies under development. While the stockpile of Stingers are going down, what were they supposed to be used against? Exactly, the Russian stuff going boom right now. Bet we have other goodies in store that have components not made out of Unobtainium. It will take a few years for Russia to restock the best of what they lost. The SU-57 might be the best plane in the sky, both of them! China is still a little too far away to be a Stinger level threat, if we don't wind up having to fight the Battle of the Coral Sea, Guadalcanal, Milne Bay,....2.0 any time soon. The elves in Taiwan must be as busy as beavers right now.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The elves in Taiwan must be as busy as beavers right now.


No doubt China is cursing Putin right now.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is interesting.... an admission of how close the US shared its intel and how deep their sources are.
> 
> U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
> 
> ...


As a former intel guy, stories like this make me cringe.
Don't we practice OPSEC any more? Protect sources and methods? Plausible deniability?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Stingers were but one element of a layered air-defense system composed of fighters, long-range missiles, and point-defense missiles. The Ukrainians lack both fighters and long-range missiles, so of course their use of Stingers is going to be heavy. Couple that with our own assumptions about our own use, and changing over to a replacement, and you can see how there could be a shortfall.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> As a former intel guy, stories like this make me cringe.
> Don't we practice OPSEC any more? Protect sources and methods? Plausible deniability?


Sending a message that doesn't need to be decoded?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> As a former intel guy, stories like this make me cringe.
> Don't we practice OPSEC any more? Protect sources and methods? Plausible deniability?



Sources and methods is a valid concern, but I don't think America is very interested in deniability any more. Releasing intel like this is likely as much political as anything else -- as Rob said, messaging. 

It's a different approach that so far seems to be paying dividends so far as we can tell.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

I wonder what model of transport aircraft the Ukrainians downed on those first days. If it had several hundred men on board as claimed it would need to be big. I haven’t heard of any evidence of a major crash site in Ukraine.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 26, 2022)

I remember a troop plane being downed, but I didn't hear it carried several hundred men

EDIT: Supposedly Il-76's which are not small!

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I remember a troop plane being downed, but I didn't hear it carried several hundred men
> 
> EDIT: Supposedly Il-76's which are not small!


There was one more recently downed near Odessa, but the above article suggests a transport heading for the Ukrainian air base north of Kiyv was shot down in those early days of late February or early March.









Military transport plane reportedly brought down outside Odesa – as it happened


Ukraine president says situation in Mariupol remains ‘extremely severe’ as Moscow tells port city’s remaining defenders to ‘surrender or die’




www.theguardian.com


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

I never know if these tabloid sites can be trusted, but here goes…









Two Russian transport planes shot down around Kyiv, Ukraine says


At least two Russian military transport planes have been shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, Ukrainian officials said early Saturday morning.




www.washingtonexaminer.com

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## wlewisiii (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I never know if these tabloid sites can be trusted, but here goes…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Definitely not a source to trust. One step above the National Enquirer... maybe.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I really like this decision...it gives the Ukrainian military an additional dimension of air defence. It's incredibly frustrating, however, to see the news media referring to these as "tanks."


Depends as to what you would like to call or refer to a tracked vehicle weighing 48t - 53t and able to dispense (660) APDS tungsten rounds in rapid fire succession via 2x35mm cannons that can easily destroy/disable a T-62 to T-72 tank. It's not necessary to "only" use the Flakpanzer Gepard in the AA role.
It was designed to accompany armored units onto the battlefield - to provide AA cover with 620 rounds and additionally fitted with (40) anti-tank rounds for self-defense against AFV's and MBT's.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what model of transport aircraft the Ukrainians downed on those first days. If it had several hundred men on board as claimed it would need to be big. I haven’t heard of any evidence of a major crash site in Ukraine.



Here's one of the reports I read:

_
Two Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft belonging to Russian military were shot down by Ukrainian forces south of Kyiv, reports confirm. 
The Ukrainian military announced that it shot down two heavy transporters with airborne troops on February 26, 2022. However, the claims were difficult to verify due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine's capital. 
Later in the day, Associated Press reported that the first aircraft went down near Vasylkiv, approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Kyiv, and the second crashed near Bila Tserkva, 85 kilometers (50 miles) south of the capital. 
According to AP, two American officials close to the matter verified the claims. 
Numerous NATO airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and drones have been a constant presence in the skies just west of Ukraine and above the Black sea, monitoring the situation over the war-torn country. _









Two Russian Il-76 transport planes shot down - reports


Associated Press, with reference to US officials, reports that two Russian Il-76 heavy transport planes were shot down in Ukraine near Kyiv.




www.aerotime.aero





If those planes were loaded with troops, "hundreds" could well have been killed. They're roughly the equivalent of the C-141 and can probably carry 100-150 combat-loaded troops, so if two were indeed shot down, "hundreds killed" could be accurate.

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## gumbyk (Apr 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They're roughly the equivalent of the C-141 and can probably carry 100-150 combat-loaded troops,


or 2-300 Russian conscripts...

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Depends as to what you would like to call or refer to a tracked vehicle weighing 48t and able to dispense (660) APDS tungsten rounds in rapid fire succession via 2x35mm cannons that
> can easily destroy/disable a T-62 to T-72 tank. It's not necessary to "only" use the Flakpanzer Gepard in the AA role.
> It was designed to accompany armored units onto the battlefield - to provide AA cover with 620 rounds and additionally fitted with (40) anti-tank rounds for self-defense against AFV's and MBT's.



It's armoured, tracked AAA. It may be able to disable another MBT but to destroy it would take an incredible amount of luck. I can see it having a role against AFVs but I don't see it knocking out tanks...except, perhaps, achieving an M-kill. It isn't a tank, though.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's armoured, tracked AAA. It may be able to disable another MBT but to destroy it would take an incredible amount of luck.


IIRC the original Leopard I upon which the Gepard was based was very poorly armoured.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IIRC the original Leopard I upon which the Gepard was based was very poorly armoured.



Yes, the Leo 1 was very light for a MBT. The early Challenger and M1 Abrams had over 50% greater mass than the Leo 1, while the latest M1 variants are gusting close to 75% greater mass.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yes, the Leo 1 was very light for a MBT. The early Challenger and M1 Abrams had over 50% greater mass than the Leo 1, while the latest M1 variants are gusting close to 75% greater mass.


I believe in the era of HEAT and APDS rounds and before Chobham and explosive reactive armour (ERA) the assumption was that nothing could prevent penetration. In this mindset the 70s tanks like the Leopard and AMX-30 were thinly skinned against only light guns. Many NATO MBTs of the 1960s and 70s were like battlecruisers, fast, agile, able to dish it out but not able to take it, Chieftain aside of course.

I’m sure the Ukrainians would do well with Leopards, but they’d prefer Chieftains. Here’s some for sale.









Chieftain Tank For Sale from £18,000 to £50,000 (FV4201)


We have x4 Chieftain Tank for sale from £18,000 to £50,000 (FV4201). They are in various conditions, from non runner to runner with activated main gun.




tanks-alot.co.uk

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## fubar57 (Apr 26, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> or 2-300 Russian conscripts...



Still using it old school

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 26, 2022)

I swear alcohol had to be involved

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## buffnut453 (Apr 26, 2022)

More explosions in Belgorod, this time at an ammo depot:
_
Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.

On social media app Telegram, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he was woken at around 03:35 on Wednesday by the sound of an explosion.

He said that while drafting his social media post he heard another three loud booms.

Gladkov later said preliminary reports indicated an ammunition depot was on fire in a rural settlement, and "no casualties among the civilian population" had been reported._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's armoured, tracked AAA. It may be able to disable another MBT but to destroy it would take an incredible amount of luck. I can see it having a role against AFVs but I don't see it knocking out tanks...except, perhaps, achieving an M-kill. It isn't a tank, though.



If you're using it against MBTs you're probably losing the battle already.

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## fubar57 (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More explosions in Belgorod, this time at an ammo depot:
> 
> _Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.
> 
> ...

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## MiTasol (Apr 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just my two pennies, but enough with these gotcha moment fails.
> 
> India's aid to Ukraine
> 
> ...



I stand corrected.

Thank you


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's armoured, tracked AAA. It may be able to disable another MBT but to destroy it would take an incredible amount of luck. I can see it having a role against AFVs but I don't see it knocking out tanks...except, perhaps, achieving an M-kill. It isn't a tank, though.





https://img.ifunny.co/images/05e11319e146419e59a8e1f07bd5709abb08971b27b37a90da621ea6f6220140_1.webp

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If you're using it against MBTs you're probably losing the battle already.



But take the turret off the hull, stick it onto a mechanized quadrupedal battle walker and it'd make a great AT-AT. Compare the two and see if you agree:

AT-AT Walker:






Gepard Turret:

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

Egads! You're right.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's armoured, tracked AAA. It may be able to disable another MBT but to destroy it would take an incredible amount of luck. I can see it having a role against AFVs but I don't see it knocking out tanks...except, perhaps, achieving an M-kill. It isn't a tank, though.


In German it is called rightfully a Panzer (tank) it is not termed Kampfpanzer (MBT). It isn't build to act as an AFV or MBT but it is able to defend itself, destroy/disable AFV's and MBT's such as in the latter case a T-54/T-62 right up to a T-72. If a Gepard is integrated into a defensive or obstructing position it could and would create havoc towards any soft target, AFV and if neccessary even an MBT.
Just as an A-10 with it's 30mm (uranium depleted) API can obliterate a T-72 - so can a Gepard with it's 35mm (tungsten core) API

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> In German it is called rightfully a Panzer (tank) it is not termed Kampfpanzer (MBT). It isn't build to act as an AFV or MBT but it is able to defend itself, destroy/disable AFV's and MBT's such as in the latter case a T-54/T-62 right up to a T-72. If a Gepard is integrated into a defensive or obstructing position it could and would create havoc towards any soft target, AFV and if neccessary even an MBT.
> Just as an A-10 with it's 30mm (uranium depleted) API can obliterate a T-72 - so can a Gepard with it's 35mm (tungsten core) API



I can buy the ability of the Gepard to shred soft vehicles and AFVs but I still say taking out a tank would require a lucky hit in a poorly defended area (e.g engine compartment, attacking from the rear). 

Your statement about the A-10 isn't actually correct. Trials of A-10s going against MBTs showed that the results really weren't that great. The one thing the A-10 has going for it is that it pumps a lot of rounds downrange very quickly (muzzle velocity is well over twice that of the Gepard), which means an initial round that creates some damage may be followed by a second or third round that can at least disable the tank. I wouldn't bet on the Gepard, shooting just 40 rounds at less than half the muzzle velocity of the A-10, shredding any T-72 that's coming towards your position...again, from the rear is a different story, but against the main armour I just don't buy it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Just as an A-10 with it's 30mm (uranium depleted) API can obliterate a T-72 - so can a Gepard with it's 35mm (tungsten core) API



An A-10's 30-mike is coming in against top armor, whereas the flakpanzer's 35mm is coming in horizontally.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I can buy the ability of the Gepard to shred soft vehicles and AFVs but I still say taking out a tank would require a lucky hit in a poorly defended area (e.g engine compartment, attacking from the rear).
> 
> Your statement about the A-10 isn't actually correct. Trials of A-10s going against MBTs showed that the results really weren't that great. The one thing the A-10 has going for it is that it pumps a lot of rounds downrange very quickly (muzzle velocity is well over twice that of the Gepard), which means an initial round that creates some damage may be followed by a second or third round that can at least disable the tank. I wouldn't bet on the Gepard, shooting just 40 rounds at less than half the muzzle velocity of the A-10, shredding any T-72 that's coming towards your position...again, from the rear is a different story, but against the main armour I just don't buy it.


The tactical implementation (including range) of an A-10 from the air is totally different then that of a Gepard on the ground. Therefore the amount of ammo spend by an A-10 to conceive actual hits is already 30-50times higher then that of a Gepard.
If you have been to NATO training grounds then you would be able to see what 4-6, 35mm tungsten API will do to a T-62, between 1000-1500m, not even to mention 20-40 hits. (total overkill). The unit I served in was heavily integrated with Gepard's so we got to see quite a lot of action by this "beast".

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The tactical implementation (including range) of an A-10 from the air is totally different then that of a Gepard on the ground. Therefore the amount of ammo spend by an A-10 to conceive actual hits is already 30-50times higher then that of a Gepard.
> If you have been to NATO training grounds then you would be able to see what 4-6, 35mm tungsten API will do to a T-62, between 1000-1500m, not even to mention 20-40 hits. (total overkill). The unit I served in was heavily integrated with Gepard's so we got to see quite a lot of action by this "beast".



Frontal armor on an MBT, though? I'm skeptical too. I can see a mobility kill. or a side or rear kill -- but like I wrote earlier, if you're using 'em to fight MBTs at all you've probably already lost the battle.

To track back on topic some, it's been mentioned upthread about training requirements for armored vehicles. so no matter the qualities of the Gephard it will take some time to show its effect. No doubt it will be good to defend against Frogfoot/helo attacks.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The tactical implementation (including range) of an A-10 from the air is totally different then that of a Gepard on the ground. Therefore the amount of ammo spend by an A-10 to conceive actual hits is already 30-50times higher then that of a Gepard.
> If you have been to NATO training grounds then you would be able to see what 4-6, 35mm tungsten API will do to a T-62, between 1000-1500m, not even to mention 20-40 hits. (total overkill). The unit I served in was heavily integrated with Gepard's so we got to see quite a lot of action by this "beast".



And a T-62 is not a T-72. They're very different beasts. Even within the T-72 series, the export versions were considerably less well protected than those retained by Mother Russia. The earliest Russian T-72s had composite ceramic laminated armour for the turret (the export variants didn't have composite armour) and starting in 1985 they added 20mm of applique armour to the front of the hull. If you then start bolting on ERA, things get even trickier for the Gepard. 

I don't deny that the Gepard was a great piece of kit but in a knife-fight with MBTs, it's not going to come off well. The Gepard's gun turret can't protect against much above heavy machine guns. Any success against an MBT that's part of a combine arms attack will involve a heck of a lot of luck, IMHO.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

HEY...LOOK FELLAS!!! WE REACHED 250 PAGES ON THIS THREAD WITHOUT IT BEING SHUT DOWN!!!!!

YAYYY US!!!! WAY TO GO, TEAM!!!!


Donning coat now and furtling off into a quiet corner somewhere to lie down and compose myself.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And a T-62 is not a T-72. They're very different beasts. Even within the T-72 series, the export versions were considerably less well protected than those retained by Mother Russia. The earliest Russian T-72s had composite ceramic laminated armour for the turret and starting in 1985 they added 20mm of applique armour to the front of the hull. If you then start bolting on ERA, things get even trickier for the Gepard.
> 
> I don't deny that the Gepard was a great piece of kit but in a knife-fight with MBTs, it's not going to come off well. The Gepard's gun turret can't protect against much above heavy machine guns. Any success against an MBT that's part of a combine arms attack will involve a heck of a lot of luck, IMHO.


I had mentioned T-54, T-62 right up to a T-72. looking at the Russian tank wrecks in Ukraine, I haven't seen a blown up T-72 with reactive armor (doesn't mean there wouldn't be any)
but mostly T-62's. I think that the US forces aren't familiar with 35mm tungsten ammo. So indeed difficult to imagine unless you have seen it. 
And I haven't forwarded or indicated that a Gepard is suitable for a head on (knife-knife) fight with a T-72 MBT - but being integrated into a defensive/obstructing position it is able
to even knock out a T-72. Since a Gepard in a defensive position would be surrounded by infantry, AFV's, ATGM teams and MBT's it would be a hell of a slaughter for those Russians to come at such a position. 
The Gepard has one huge disadvantage though, due to its huge overweight (it's chassis, tracks and engine deriving from a Leopard I) we usually needed four 8x8 trucks to get them towed out of a muddied field.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...... No doubt it will be good to defend against Frogfoot/helo attacks.


I don't want to dishearten the Ukrainians, but this is exactly as to were I place my personal question mark.
Sure against some unsuspecting Frogfoot or Transport/Liaison helicopter/aircraft it would have an impact, but in regards to today's range of Air-Ground missiles I don't really
see a meaning in a Gepard with it's (antiquated) firing range. Off course other more advanced AA missile systems can link onto it's radar - but for that I wouldn't need a tank.

That is why I had brought in the idea of it being a far more effective ground defense weapon then in its original intended 1980's AA role. In which it was already supposed to
be replaced by the far more capable Ozelot system in the early 90's - but due to budget constrains only realized from 2005 onward.

So maybe in a static position around strategic targets, armed with ahead ammo - it might proof useful against e.g. cruise missiles.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An A-10's 30-mike is coming in against top armor, whereas the flakpanzer's 35mm is coming in horizontally.


No, the A10 has to contend with front, side, or rear armor. Survivability dictates flying nap of the earth. To access top armor requires a pop up and roll in diving maneuver which exposes you to every MANPAD in a 5 mile radius. Not conducive to health and long life. At those speeds pointing your nose at mother earth without plenty of altitude is tantamount to suicide. Target fixation/CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain) kills as many pilots as ground fire does.

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## J_P_C (Apr 27, 2022)

Rheinmetall informed that they have stored only 23k rounds of 35mm ammunition. Single load of Gepard is 680 rounds... it is not even funny.... Rusted 40 years old Striela missiles and flak tanks without ammunition - could be better for Grmany just say "no"?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If you're using it against MBTs you're probably losing the battle already.


True, but imagine the Gepard tearing up a squad of BMPs, BTRs and MTLs.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Rheinmetall informed that they have stored only 23k rounds of 35mm ammunition. Single load of Gepard is 680 rounds... it is not even funny.... Rusted 40 years old Striela missiles and flak tanks without ammunition - could be better for Grmany just say "no"?


Damn. Well, after the thirty odd single loads of 35mm ammo runs out the Gepards can make good artillery tractors and ARVs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I don't want to dishearten the Ukrainians, but this is exactly as to were I place my personal question mark.
> Sure against some unsuspecting Frogfoot or Transport/Liaison helicopter/aircraft it would have an impact, but in regards to today's range of Air-Ground missiles I don't really
> see a meaning in a Gepard with it's (antiquated) firing range. Off course other more advanced AA missile systems can link onto it's radar - but for that I wouldn't need a tank.
> 
> ...



You're ignoring an important point, to wit, the Russians have already shot off most of their smart weapons and missiles, and are now mainly throwing around dumb bombs and rockets

_ Russia is increasingly relying on unguided bombs and brute force in its assault on Ukraine as it seeks to regain momentum and runs out of more precise weaponry, according to western defence officials. Moscow's dependence on heavy artillery barrages of urban centres and its use of so-called dumb bombs indicated a shift in military tactics following its failure to capture big cities or make major advances on other fronts, they said. The move will exact an even greater toll on Ukrainian civilians._






Subscribe to read | Financial Times


News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




www.ft.com





Much better than putting these up against T-72s. Let's hope Rheinmetall gets cracking on making more 35-mm ammo.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

My favourite West Germany AFV is the Kanonenjagdpanzer with its 90 mm gun. A true successor to the Jagdpanzer IV and Jagdpanther of WW2. The ATGM armed Raketenjagdpanzer was also top of mind.



I don’t suppose the Kanonenjagdpanzer’s 90 mm gun and 1980s era ammo would kill the modernized T-72s in Ukraine, but anything lighter will be fare game. Too bad the Germans scrapped them…. For a formerly militaristic people the Germans are really unprepared for today’s world.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Rheinmetall informed that they have stored only 23k rounds of 35mm ammunition. Single load of Gepard is 680 rounds... it is not even funny.... Rusted 40 years old Striela missiles and flak tanks without ammunition - could be better for Grmany just say "no"?


You have to ask the Ukrainians. In beginning of March they had asked to be supplied with Leopard I tanks!!! Somehow they seem to be a lot like the Russians - fancy anything that is heavy and looks like a tank. IMO the Wiesel/Ozelot family and it's weaponry would be perfect for the Ukrainian Army.
And selling/providing e.g. Wiesel/Ozelot vehicles to the Ukraine is far more easy (actually no problem at all) to pass through parliament, then a Leopard IIA7 or the Panzerhaubitze 2000.

However due to NATO (besides maybe the USA) being run down financially there are more or less no chances for any immediate delivery of a present weapon systems employed by NATO without endangering NATO's present fighting capabilities.

Why the USA is not supplying them with e.g. 300 M1A2's and 500 Bradley's from stock based stateside (surely Mexico and Canada are not posing a momentary threat towards them) I wouldn't know.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My favourite West Germany AFV is the Kanonenjagdpanzer with its 90 mm gun. A true successor to the Jagdpanther. The ATGM armed Raketenjagdpanzer was also top of mind.
> 
> 
> 
> I don’t suppose the Kanonenjagdpanzer’s 90 mm gun and 1980s era ammo would kill T-72s, but anything lighter will be fare game. Too bad the Germans scrapped them…. For a formerly militaristic people the Germans are really unprepared for today’s world.



Not the 90mm cannon, but the Jagdpanzer Jaguar 2 with it's TOW-2 missile system would be enough to tear up a T-62 right up to a T-72. However I still believe that the Wiesel/Ozelot family is far more suitable for the urban warfare that the Ukrainian army is conducting.

Germany and it's NATO associates are certainly well equipped to ward of a Russian attack onto NATO - however (except the USA) none of them has the $ or equipment lying around 
to be send/supplied to the Ukraine, without endangering NATO's commitment.


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## vikingBerserker (Apr 27, 2022)

We need those to keep the the residents of Florida and California confined to their states. 

It seems like we are offering those to NATO allies first to replace their Russian made equipment to pass those onto the Ukrainians. Theoretically a win win, allies are upgraded with Western equipment and Ukrainians get equipment they are familiar with.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Not the 90mm cannon, but the Jagdpanzer Jaguar 2 with it's TOW-2 missile system would be enough to tear up a T-62 right up to a T-72.


I wonder how many T-72s Russia has lost to direct gunfire, rather than to missiles, fuel starvation, breakdowns, abandonment and farmers. There was that vid of an Ukrainian MBT shooting up a Russian tank column, but I didn’t see any MBT kills. Are Russian tanks mostly protected against similarly-armed Ukrainian tanks? I wonder how often two countries go to war with essentially identical tanks - maybe China vs. India, or Indian vs. Pakistan in the 70s, or Iraq vs. Kuwait and the coalition in 1991?



Apparently the Ukrainians do have some antitank guns.









Ukraine Rolls Out Soviet-Era Radar-Equipped Anti-Tank Guns


Cold War-era MT-12R anti-tank guns could help bolster Ukraine's anti-armor capabilities in any conflict in the near future.




www.thedrive.com













In the USA, the Ukrainian MT-12R cannon with radar was evaluated


The Drive evaluated the Soviet MT-12R cannon used by Ukraine with radar <br>Although most countries of the world refuse to use towed anti-tank guns in favor of guided missiles, the Soviet MT-12R 100-millimeter anti-tank gun used by Ukraine, equipped with the 1A31 radar sighting system, can be...




vpk.name


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder how many T-72s Russia has lost to direct gunfire, rather than to missiles, fuel starvation, breakdowns, abandonment and farmers. There was that vid of an Ukrainian MBT shooting up a Russian tank column, but I didn’t see any MBT kills. Are Russian tanks mostly protected against similarly-armed Ukrainian tanks? I wonder how often two countries go to war with essentially identical tanks - maybe China vs. India in the 70s?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I can only guess, but due to Ukraine's armed forces conducting urban warfare - I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians already lost a 1000 T- members.


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

re "Why the USA is not supplying them with e.g. 300 M1A2's and 500 Bradley's from stock based stateside . . ."

TIming and logistics. The US and other nations are (for the most part) trying to supply the UAF with equipment that can be used ~immediately. M1s would take a minimum of ~6 weeks to get on the ground and operational in the Ukraine, assuming no problems. If you want effective operational M1 units ~6 weeks from now, the training would have to begin immediately (like tomorrow), the platforms would have to be drawn from active units, the minimal most basic maintenance & logistics capability would have to be established. The M1 is a complicated platform, not intended for one shot use.

Also, as far as I am aware, the UAF still has a large number of their own tanks available. And I do not think that there will be any massed tank vs tank, or any massed tank vs anything battles in the near future.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re "Why the USA is not supplying them with e.g. 300 M1A2's and 500 Bradley's from stock based stateside . . ."
> 
> TIming and logistics. The US and other nations are (for the most part) trying to supply the UAF with equipment that can be used ~immediately. M1s would take a minimum of ~6 weeks to get on the ground and operational in the Ukraine, assuming no problems. If you want effective operational M1 units ~6 weeks from now, the training would have to begin immediately (like tomorrow), the platforms would have to be drawn from active units, the (very basic) maintenance & logistics capability would have to be established. The M1 is a complicated platform, not intended for one shot use.
> 
> Also, as far as I am aware, the UAF still has a large number of their own tanks available. And I do not think that there will be any massed tank vs tank, or any massed tank vs anything battles in the near future.


Initially NATO was convinced that the Russians would roll over the Ukraine within a week.
The way I see it, this Ukraine issue is not going to end before end of the year - so these US "ready" for supply weaponry should already be on it's way to the Ukraine since beginning of
April and training conducted in parallel within NATO countries. I don't agree that it takes an experienced tanker crew several month to become familiar with e.g. an M1A2 or a Bradley.

If necessary combat readiness can be managed within 2 weeks. - maintenance and repair knowledge is another issue that might take 2-3 month to achieve a certain standard.

We were send for the Pershing I/II operating course to the USA for 3 month (actually a kind of reward for signing up) factually the operators course could have been done in 2 weeks.

Since the Ukrainians are fully aware of the sh...y Russian equipment they naturally do not want to engage the Russians with the same equipment.


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

re ". . . I don't agree that it takes an experienced tanker crew several month to become familiar with e.g. an M1A2 . . ."

What are the UAF going to do? Pull their experienced tank crews from the front lines and send them to the US or other countries for training? 300 (or any large number) of M1s going operational is not going to happen anytime soon. And there really is no reason to send just a few, unless they get sent to a non-operations area to begin the training process.

re "Since the Ukrainians are aware of the sh...y Russian equipment they naturally do not want to engage the Russians with the same equipment."

?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Rheinmetall informed that they have stored only 23k rounds of 35mm ammunition. Single load of Gepard is 680 rounds... it is not even funny.... Rusted 40 years old Striela missiles and flak tanks without ammunition - could be better for Grmany just say "no"?


The German government is right now negotiating with Brazil in order to get aprox. 300,000 rounds of ammo for the Gepard. Also Switzerland and Germany are able to produce this ammo more or less immediately - if government funds are coming in.
(statistically this should be enough for the Ukrainians to wipe out the entire Russian army)

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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

ZURICH, April 26 (Reuters) - Neutral Switzerland has vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany is sending to Ukraine, the government said on Tuesday.

SECO received two requests from Germany to transfer to Ukraine ammunition it had previously received from Switzerland. One concerned 35mm ammunition for the Gepard tank. The other concerned 12.7mm ammunition, the agency said in response to a query.

SRF said it was unclear which ammunition Germany was now sending to Ukraine along with the Gepards, following the Swiss veto.

"Swiss veto German request to re-export tank ammunition to Ukraine"

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re ". . . I don't agree that it takes an experienced tanker crew several month to become familiar with e.g. an M1A2 . . ."
> 
> What are the UAF going to do? Pull their experienced tank crews from the front lines and send them to the US or other countries for training? 300 (or any large number) of M1s going operational is not going to happen anytime soon. And there really is no reason to send just a few, unless they get sent to a non-operations area to begin the training process.
> 
> ...


Step by step - taking the Ukrainian army's readiness into account - they have enough tankers that don't want to get slaughtered away in a shi..y T-62/T-72 anyway.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I don't agree that it takes an experienced tanker crew several month to become familiar with e.g. an M1A2 or a Bradley.





 wlewisiii
has already commented upthread about transitioning to a new AFV, which goes well beyond simply training the crew. He's a retired tanker from the US Army so he's got hands-on experience with this stuff.

It's not as simple as turning the key and going for a joyride. Russian tanks don't have a loader position, so first you're going to have to expand your armored crews by 25%, and train the new personnel for a new position on a new model of gun. Then you're going to have to train the mechanics who keep it running, and then ensure a supply-chain of entirely new and incompatible parts is in place to keep these tanks running. Mr Lewis covered it very well upthread but this thread is going fast enough that his post is buried in the weeds and I don't have the time to find it.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> ZURICH, April 26 (Reuters) - Neutral Switzerland has vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition


The bloody Swiss. They sit securely surrounded by NATO but when part of their European house is on fire they withhold the hose.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> wlewisiii
> has already commented upthread about transitioning to a new AFV, which goes well beyond simply training the crew. He's a retired tanker from the US Army so he's got hands-on experience with this stuff.
> 
> It's not as simple as turning the key and going for a joyride. Russian tanks don't have a loader position, so first you're going to have to expand your armored crews by 25%, and train the news personnel for a new position on a new model of gun. Then you're going to have to train the mechanics who keep it running, and then ensure a supply-chain of entirely new and incompatible parts is in place to keep these tanks running. Mr Lewis covered it very well upthread but this thread is going fast enough that his post is buried in the weeds and I don't have the time to find it.


Yes I had already mentioned that maintenance and repair can take 2-3 month to gain a certain standard.

As for weapon systems training I can tell you first hand (due to numerous trainings with US forces) that there is a vast difference in training setup and timing between e.g. Bundeswehr, Brits and Canadians compared to the US Army. For what the US forces took 8 hours we did in 1h and for other issues conducted in the US army manner it takes e.g. 2 month whilst in the other forces it takes a week or two.

Since I am convinced that the Ukraine issue is not going to end before years end (if the Russians are not going to bring in considerable elements of their own army), time for the Ukrainians is running out, not just to defend but to counter attack sucessfully, they need these goodies yesterday and not somewhere around August/September.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The bloody Swiss. They sit securely surrounded by NATO but when part of their European house is on fire they withhold the hose.


True, but on the other hand I kind of admire them for being able to stick towards their laws - unlike presently Germany.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

M-1s have turbine engines, let alone another crew position. I imagine the electronics aren't quite the same as well. That alone makes it way different from the Soviet stuff. I'm hoping (daydreaming) that there have already been some Ukrainian personnel sent here prior to the invasion. Wouldn't it be amusing if a few squadrons of Ukrainian F-16s suddenly popped up to contest the airspace over Donetsk in a couple of weeks?
I am amazed at just how fast a polarized U.S. has acted. I am pleasantly surprised.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The bloody Swiss. They sit securely surrounded by NATO but when part of their European house is on fire they withhold the hose.


BTW, NATO buddy Turkey just entered a second round of talks with Russia for a further tranche of the S-400 system - now that I would consider to be disgraceful in the least.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

It would make it harder for Russia to strike Turkish targets.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> M-1s have turbine engines, let alone another crew position. I imagine the electronics aren't quite the same as well. That alone makes it way different from the Soviet stuff. I'm hoping (daydreaming) that there have already been some Ukrainian personnel sent here prior to the invasion. Wouldn't it be amusing if a few squadrons of Ukrainian F-16s suddenly popped up to contest the airspace over Donetsk in a couple of weeks?
> I am amazed at just how fast a polarized U.S. has acted. I am pleasantly surprised.


Never mind the word turbine - it's a multi fuel engine just as others use like e.g. the Leo II. Electronics yes sure - but operating them isn't the same as inventing those electronics.

F-16 over Ukraine and Russia - yep would be great sight

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

It ain't the fuel that might be a problem. Turbines are a bit different from diesels and I've read they require more maintenance. You got set up a service network. Logistics!


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## Greg Boeser (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> M-1s have turbine engines, let alone another crew position. I imagine the electronics aren't quite the same as well. That alone makes it way different from the Soviet stuff. I'm hoping (daydreaming) that there have already been some Ukrainian personnel sent here prior to the invasion. Wouldn't it be amusing if a few squadrons of Ukrainian F-16s suddenly popped up to contest the airspace over Donetsk in a couple of weeks?
> I am amazed at just how fast a polarized U.S. has acted. I am pleasantly surprised.


The polarization is entirely media driven. Aside from a few crackpots with megaphones, most people get along just fine.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The polarization is entirely media driven. Aside from a few crackpots with megaphones, most people get along just fine.



I disagree, Greg. It's driven by a political process in which ardent loyalists select party candidates who then seek to implement the desires of their supporters when in office. Any attempt to work across the aisle is seen as weakness and, come the next election, you can guarantee there will be a competitor who's further to the right or left (depending on the party) of the incumbent, so the ardent loyalists can push to even more extreme representation. 

The above problem is exacerbated by the information age which gives everyone a mouthpiece, and in particular it gives politicians a megaphone for their parochial perspectives...and they use them to keep the ardent loyalists on-side. It doesn't help when "fake news" is used as a mantra to disbelieve anything in the media...which pours fuel on the fire noted above. 

I'm not saying the media is innocent but it's not all their fault. Some of it is structural and baked into the established processes, and some of it is just a lack of common decency in modern society. As a people, we've forgotten how to disagree without being disagreeable. . 

I'll shut up now because I've already jumped too deeply into political issues.

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 27, 2022)

By disagreeing with me you are calling into question my very being. That outs you as a dangerous hater, who must be destroyed at all costs. ❄️

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> By disagreeing with me you are calling into question my very being. That outs you as a dangerous hater, who must be destroyed at all costs. ❄️



I'm ok with that.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 27, 2022)

Just to further muddy things a little there are older AFV's in storage with various 105mm guns that use the same
ammunition. These are older and simpler (to use?) than the latest types but would definitely be 'competent' on 
the battlefield - particularly for ambush and support.

The L7 105 was developed in response to Soviet tanks which were first seen in the fifties. The Centurion at the time
had the 20lber (84mm) which was deemed to be inadequate against the latest Soviet types. The 105 was developed
along the lines of the 20lber and was built with same mounts as the 20lber so the Centurion could be upgraded very
easily.

It is interesting that the M68 came from a US design which was around at the same time as the first L7. The M68 is often said
to be a derivative of the L7 but it isn't. Both followed parallel thinking and the matching gun tube was used to allow both to
have access to ammunition manufactured by either country.

The rifled 105 can fire a round with far more accuracy than a smooth bore 120 and at longer ranges. Penetration for HESH rounds
and the like is far superior using the 120mm but again, ranges are generally lower.

Some lighter vehicles use 105 guns and can fire the same ammo as the L7 / M68.

Fusing can be changed on the 105 steel shells and due to the instant centrifugal force of the rifling the fuse will be bore safe
on all settings - the 120 is limited in this capability.

Penetration power is still good on the 105 when coupled with later fin stabilised ammo. Accuracy at 1200m of three rounds within
a 20cm circle is gained. Even at up to 5000m the three round hit spread is still less than 50cm. A couple of quick shots into the same 
area of a target is a handy ability to have.

In other words, even older vehicles, with the right gun / ammo and not just tanks, can cause a lot of grief to Russian armour.

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## Denniss (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The bloody Swiss. They sit securely surrounded by NATO but when part of their European house is on fire they withhold the hose.


In wartime they usually had no probem to accept money from all sides. That goes back to WW2 maybe even WW1 so why now?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> In other words, even older vehicles, with the right gun / ammo and not just tanks, can cause a lot of grief to Russian armour.


I don't think the Russians have lost many tanks to gun fire. Usually it's missiles, breakdowns, abandonment, fuel starvation and farmers.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Usually it's missiles, breakdowns, abandonment, fuel starvation and farmers.



Not necessarily in that order of importance.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 27, 2022)

My point is that as a versatile support weapon the 105 equipped vehicles would offer mobility with more than just
AT capability. Support fire from a decent sized weapon which can cover terrain well under it's own steam is important
on the battlefield. 

There are plenty of worthy targets besides tanks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don't think the Russians have lost many tanks to gun fire. Usually it's missiles, breakdowns, abandonment, fuel starvation and farmers.



"International Harvester", indeed!

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Turbines are a *bit* different from diesels and I've read they require more maintenance.


Like maybe, *radically* different? Watching longtime piston-pounder mechanics wrap their heads (and knuckles!) around a turbine engine is an educational experience.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since I am convinced that the Ukraine issue is not going to end before years end (if the Russians are not going to bring in considerable elements of their own army), time for the Ukrainians is running out, not just to defend but to counter attack sucessfully, they need these goodies yesterday and not somewhere around August/September.



I wonder how much longer the Russian can take all this "victory"? But yes -- if the war stretches out to six months, which seems possible and perhaps likely to me, then getting these tanks and other equipment there yesterday is still a mighty fine thing, because the training can start sooner.

I'm sorry if I gave the impression I was disagreeing with you; I wasn't. I don't see us disagreeing as much as (it seems to me) we each have our own particular concerns and perspectives.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Never mind the word turbine - it's a multi fuel engine just as others use like e.g. the Leo II. Electronics yes sure - but operating them isn't the same as inventing those electronics.
> 
> F-16 over Ukraine and Russia - yep would be great sight



The problem with the M-1's engine is not its turbine, it's the thirstiness of the thing.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "International Harvester", indeed!


I.H. in green and yellow! "Red" is a dirty word here!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The polarization is entirely media driven. Aside from a few crackpots with megaphones, most people get along just fine.





buffnut453 said:


> I disagree, Greg. It's driven by a political process in which ardent loyalists select party candidates who then seek to implement the desires of their supporters when in office. Any attempt to work across the aisle is seen as weakness and, come the next election, you can guarantee there will be a competitor who's further to the right or left (depending on the party) of the incumbent, so the ardent loyalists can push to even more extreme representation.
> 
> The above problem is exacerbated by the information age which gives everyone a mouthpiece, and in particular it gives politicians a megaphone for their parochial perspectives...and they use them to keep the ardent loyalists on-side. It doesn't help when "fake news" is used as a mantra to disbelieve anything in the media...which pours fuel on the fire noted above.
> 
> ...



There is truth to what both of you say.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is truth to what both of you say.


And down here at the grassroots, most of us still give our neighbors the benefit of the doubt.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is truth to what both of you say.


I propose a new acronym: T4MF (Tip Toeing Through The Mine Field) for when current discourse drifts into forbidden territory.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Like maybe, *radically* different? Watching longtime piston-pounder mechanics wrap their heads (and knuckles!) around a turbine engine is an educational experience.


I like my humor the way I like my martinis 🍸.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 27, 2022)

Dirty?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

I was going to mention something about changing the glow plugs.


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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Dirty?


That’s the way Mom makes ‘em!

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I like my humor the way I like my martinis 🍸.


Harvey Wallbanger's more my style: sweet tasting and lethal, with a hangover to reinforce your guilt complex.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

_
A fire broke out at an ammunition depot near the Russia-Ukraine border before being extinguished on Wednesday, according to a Russian official.

The fire took place at a depot in a Russian village near Belgorod located roughly 15 miles from the border, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, blasts were reported by authorities in Russia's Kursk and Voronezh regions, where the regional governors said air-defense systems had shot down drones early Wednesday, the Journal reported. Both regions border Ukraine.

Russia has said it will send investigators to Kursk and Voronezh over alleged "illegal actions by the Ukrainian army," according to Reuters.

The incidents come amid a number of other reported attacks and explosions in Russia. _









Russia reports fire at ammunition depot near Ukrainian border


A fire broke out at an ammunition depot near the Russia-Ukraine border before being extinguished on Wednesday, according to a Russian official. The fire took place at a depot in a Russian village n…




thehill.com





Gosh, the Russians just seem to have stuff blowing up or catching fire a lot recently. I wonder what could be going wrong?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There is truth to what both of you say.



So speaketh the Solomon of the forum admins!

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Gosh, the Russians just seem to have stuff blowing up or catching fire a lot recently. I wonder what could be going wrong?


Karma?

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Karma?


Dude!

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## fubar57 (Apr 27, 2022)

Blowing up stuff in other countries is an "illegal action?"

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Blowing up stuff in other countries is an "illegal action?"


Only if I’m hurt. Apparently.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Blowing up stuff in other countries is an "illegal action?"



Right, that jumped out at me. Do the Russians not have a version of the aphorism "all's fair in love and war"? Because if you punch me in the face, I might decide to hit you in the stomach instead. _C'est la guerre_. 

More whiny-bitch stuff from Russia, film at eleven.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 27, 2022)

If someone is shooting at you wouldn’t he expect you to shoot back?

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## buffnut453 (Apr 27, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I propose a new acronym: T4MF (Tip Toeing Through The Mine Field) for when current discourse drifts into forbidden territory.



Sorry....T4MF is already taken and it refers to Vladimir Putin. 

It stands for That Tempestuous Tyrannical Totalitarian....I'll let you guess the rest.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was going to mention something about changing the glow plugs.


I flew a Be99 once that had a -27 PT6 (igniters) on one side and a -28 (glowplugs) on the other to an FAA checkride. The inspector busted me on the checkride because I failed to abort the start on #2 when there were no audible igniter snaps (a checklist item). I protested that #2 was a -28 with glowplugs and he pulled out his spec sheet which said the Be99 had -27s, so this plane was unairworthy and I was in violation for flying it. I said there was a commonly used Supplemental Type Certificate to use -28s in 99s, and we had a copy in the paperwork back at the office. "Rubbish! No such thing! I'm issuing a violation on you and calling your company to come get you. This plane is going out of here on a truck." At that point the FSDO Chief asked his chief airworthiness inspector, who said that yes, there was such an STC. So he reprimanded the ops inspector and sent us back out to fly the checkride. Needless to say, I didn't pass that checkride.
"I'm from the FAA, and I'm here to help."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If someone is shooting at you wouldn’t he expect you to shoot back?



Bullies never expect to get hit .. heheh.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If someone is shooting at you wouldn’t he expect you to shoot back?


"Hell no! You're the guy that offended him! Take your punishment and turn the other cheek!"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 27, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And down here at the grassroots, most of us still give our neighbors the benefit of the doubt.



Exactly. My neighbors are a mixed pot. Lefties and righties, but all of us moderates. We all get along and enjoy each others companies, and have great discussions. The key though is fact that none of us are on the extreme of either side. It’s those crackpots that are the loudest and ruin it for everyone.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The key though is fact that none of us are on the extreme of either side. It’s those crackpots that are the loudest and ruin it for everyone.


Buffnut nailed it. It's a clickbait-driven radicalization process with no checks or balances.
Our only hope is that the outer reaches become so ludicrous as to be evident to all remaining sane people, even the Emperor's Wardrobe Ministry.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Buffnut nailed it. It's a clickbait-driven radicalization process with no checks or balances.
> Our only hope is that the outer reaches become so ludicrous as to be evident to all remaining sane people, even the Emporer's wardrobe ministry.



Yabut now with Musk owning Twitter ...


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## wlewisiii (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yabut now with Musk owning Twitter ...


Of course, he's already breaking the "no disparagement" agreement with the Twitter board, almost like he wants out of what he's realizing is _not_ a good deal for him.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Of course, he's already breaking the "no disparagement" agreement with the Twitter board, almost like he wants out of what he's realizing is _not_ a good deal for him.



Troll's gonna troll ...


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 27, 2022)

Ok guys. We allow a lil off-topic banter, but lets reel it back in.

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## swampyankee (Apr 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It ain't the fuel that might be a problem. Turbines are a bit different from diesels and I've read they require more maintenance. You got set up a service network. Logistics!


They require different maintenance. IIIRC, from when I worked at AVCO-Stratford, the MTOH for the AGT-1500 was about twenty times that of the diesel alternative, and the MTBR was about equal to the tank's planned peacetime service life. 

The engine is also more multi-fuel than the diesel, demonstrating the ability to run on just about any liquid fuel short of unheated marine diesel, although 100/130 avgas left a lot of deposits in the hot end.


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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> My point is that as a versatile support weapon the 105 equipped vehicles would offer mobility with more than just
> AT capability. Support fire from a decent sized weapon which can cover terrain well under it's own steam is important
> on the battlefield.
> 
> There are plenty of worthy targets besides tanks.


Agreed. And once the vehicle is paid for it's likely cheaper to kill BMPs and BTRs with a gun than with an expensive and harder to replace MANPATS. If (a hard if) 105mm L7 equipped AFVs are available the Ukrainians can save their NLAWs and Javelins for hardened targets like MBTs. In the anti-IFV role even an L7 equipped TAM will do nicely.

It's not the L7, but I wonder if Israel has a warehouse filled with 105mm armed Sherman M-51s.

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I can buy the ability of the Gepard to shred soft vehicles and AFVs but I still say taking out a tank would require a lucky hit in a poorly defended area (e.g engine compartment, attacking from the rear).
> 
> Your statement about the A-10 isn't actually correct. Trials of A-10s going against MBTs showed that the results really weren't that great. The one thing the A-10 has going for it is that it pumps a lot of rounds downrange very quickly (muzzle velocity is well over twice that of the Gepard), which means an initial round that creates some damage may be followed by a second or third round that can at least disable the tank. I wouldn't bet on the Gepard, shooting just 40 rounds* at less than half the muzzle velocity of the A-10*, shredding any T-72 that's coming towards your position...again, from the rear is a different story, but against the main armour I just don't buy it.


If I'm not wrong, the Oerlikon GDF has a muzzle velocity of 1440 m/s when firing APDS rounds.
In contrast Gau-8 only manages about 1010 m/s for the API rounds (depleted uranium)

Regards

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## MiTasol (Apr 27, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Blowing up stuff in other countries is an "illegal action?"



Tyrants first law _Do as I say, not as I do_

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 27, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> If I'm not wrong, the Oerlikon GDF has a muzzle velocity of 1440 m/s when firing APDS rounds.
> In contrast Gau-8 only manages about 1010 m/s for the API rounds (depleted uranium)
> 
> Regards


If you're operating your mobile air defence guns within sight of the enemy's MBTs you're doing it wrong. I believe the Gepard will be used close behind the front lines in concealed positions to destroy Russian helicopters and strike aircraft. Any MBT close enough to see the Gepard had better already be dead or fighting for its life against NLAW/Javelin equipped Ukrainian infantry. On the Gepard, can it reliably down cruise missiles and land attack missiles?


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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 27, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Rheinmetall informed that they have stored only 23k rounds of 35mm ammunition. Single load of Gepard is 680 rounds... it is not even funny.... Rusted 40 years old Striela missiles and flak tanks without ammunition - could be better for Grmany just say "no"?


Nammo also produces 35 mm ammo compatible with the gepard oerlikons.

This one in particular is produced (at least) in the Nammo plant in Palencia (Spain)








35 mm × 228 SAPHEI/SD - Nammo







www.nammo.com

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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

The M1's AGT1500 (1500 HP) multi-fuel turbine accounts for about 40% of the platform's current operational maintenance. Although the original intent was to have a 2000 hr MTBO (the requirement was 2000 hr MTBO) the goal was never met (I think). Currently the MTBO is ~700 hrs. This is partly because of aging engines and associated systems, and partly because the M1 has been so heavily used - much more so than envisioned in the original requirements.

The Leopard II's MT883 (1500 HP) multi-fuel diesel met the originally requirement for 2000 hr MTBO, and has maintained that requirement in operations.

There is however, more routine maintenance required on the MT883. I have not been able to find out the difference in times required by levels of maintenance for the 2 engines, but it is probably more for the diesel.

Incidentally, the 'EuroPowerPack' (a variant of the MT883 diesel and Renk transmission) was fitted to a M1A2 in the late-1990s and completed trials satisfactorily. Fuel usage during the trials was ~50% compared to the turbine powered control model.

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## Glider (Apr 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's not the L7, but I wonder if Israel has a warehouse filled with 105mm armed Sherman M-51s.
> 
> View attachment 666046


Probably not but they did have a lot of T55/62 tanks up gunned to the 105 L7


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

re "If I'm not wrong, the Oerlikon GDF has a muzzle velocity of 1440 m/s when firing APDS rounds.
In contrast Gau-8 only manages about 1010 m/s for the API rounds (depleted uranium)"

You have to add the forward velocity of the moving A-10 to the MV of the projectile when fired from a stationary platform. The A-10 attacks at a minimum of about 250 knots (preferably around 300 knots) so the effective MV of the GAU-8 round is ~1450 m/s.


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## swampyankee (Apr 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The M1's AGT1500 (1500 HP) multi-fuel turbine accounts for about 40% of the platform's current operational maintenance. Although the original intent was to have a 2000 hr MTBO (the requirement was 2000 hr MTBO) the goal was never met (I think). Currently the MTBO is ~700 hrs. This is partly because of aging engines and associated systems, and partly because the M1 has been so heavily used - much more so than envisioned in the original requirements.
> 
> The Leopard II's MT883 (1500 HP) multi-fuel diesel met the originally requirement for 2000 hr MTBO, and has maintained that requirement in operations.
> 
> ...


For comparison, the MTBO of the AVDS-1790 variant offered for the M1 was, iirc, under 100 hours. There was quite a lot of trouble getting the AGT-1500 as installed in the M1 to become fully serviceable, mostly as Chrysler (which was the original manufacturer and designer of the M1 tank) couldn't design a decent air cleaner.


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## ThomasP (Apr 27, 2022)

re 'For comparison, the MTBO of the AVDS-1790 variant offered for the M1 was, iirc, under 100 hours.'

"Switching production -- How long might that take?"

Unfortunately the AVDS-1790 variant for the M1 was never fully developed, so it ever had an established MTBO. The later variants in the series were comparable to other engines of similar power, and there was eventually a 1500 HP model developed (but I have not seen any expected MTBOs for it).


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## Jabberwocky (Apr 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I can only guess, but due to Ukraine's armed forces conducting urban warfare - I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians already lost a 1000 T- members.



Ukrainians claim the Russians have lost 969 tanks as of 27 April.

Open source verified Russian MBT losses are 564 (per Oryx blog). That includes 300 destroyed, 215 captured and a further 49 abandoned. Predominant losses are T-72Bs.

UK MoD statement from 25 April was that Russia has lost "at least" 530 MBTs and 1600 other armoured vehicles.

The truth is probably somewhere between the Ukranian and the open source verifications - call it 750 MBTs.

EDIT: The Oryx figures reportedly don't include Russian tanks damaged and then recovered. There are at least 80 parked at a couple of sites in Russia. I suspect that while some of these will be returned to combat, quite a few will never leave these sites.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Ukrainians claim the Russians have lost 969 tanks as of 27 April.
> 
> Open source verified Russian MBT losses are 564 (per Oryx blog). That includes 300 destroyed, 215 captured and a further 49 abandoned. Predominant losses are T-72Bs.
> 
> ...



I bet the money to repair them is pretty scarce, unless the Chinese do some Lend-Lease of their own.

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## pgeno71 (Apr 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I bet the money to repair them is pretty scarce, unless the Chinese do some Lend-Lease of their own.


I hope your right, but I don't know. The EU has probably purchased close to 40 billion Euros worth of gas and oil from Russia since the invasion began. And, if they continue the contracts to the end of the year, which as far as I know is still the plan, that's seven more months of purchases at tens of billions of Euros a month. I'm not sure how much this bolsters Putin's war machine, but I think about a trillion Euros is a lot of money. 

Also, I am generally skeptical of sanctions. Countries always seem to find work arounds and in Russia's case there are many countries that would help just to thumb their noses at the West.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 27, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Also, I am generally skeptical of sanctions. Countries always seem to find work arounds and in Russia's case there are many countries that would help just to thumb their noses at the West.



Even working around sanctions generally involves more expense. It looks to me like Israel, with its recent investment in the yuan, may be angling to be a breathing-tube for the Russian economy.

I think the Russian military is banged-up enough that if those trillion Euros (if that's the actual number) will soak up a bit of it, and then the expense to mollify a Russian public that is seeing hardship may also account for much too.

It's a pity that so much of Europe relies upon Russian energy. Here's hoping that this experience with war teaches them that relying on Russian goodwill is probably not wise money, and here's hoping as well that we Americans and others can step up to replace the Russian business that will be lost.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 27, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> They require different maintenance. IIIRC, from when I worked at AVCO-Stratford, the MTOH for the AGT-1500 was about twenty times that of the diesel alternative





ThomasP said:


> The M1's AGT1500 (1500 HP) multi-fuel turbine accounts for about 40% of the platform's current operational maintenance. Although the original intent was to have a 2000 hr MTBO (the requirement was 2000 hr MTBO) the goal was never met (I think). Currently the MTBO is ~700 hrs.


My experience with turbines (mostly RR Darts and PWC PT6s) is that they have impressive TBOs, but if they're in daily use they're constantly in the shop for (minor) jobs such as Hot Section Inspections, turbine wheel changes, fuel nozzle flow checks, bleed valve changes, accessory timeout replacements, etc. Our PT6s started with 5300 hour TBOs with extensions based on a condition monitoring system, some reaching 10-12K hours of hard usage with very few of the original parts remaining when we traded them in for remans.
I shudder to think of doing that in the field under combat conditions. A diesel that has a slightly shorter TBO, but not so much intermediate tweaking, and better fuel efficiency to boot, looks like a no-brainer to me.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 27, 2022)

To put Russia's tank losses into perspective (assuming ~750 kills):

Russia's active tank fleet prior to the Ukraine war was estimated at between 2700 and 3300 tanks, comprised of about 60% T-72B/BMV/BVMs, 25% T-80U/BV/BVMs and 15% T-90A/T-90Ms. So, *somewhere between 23% and 25% of Russia's pre-war active fleet* *has been destroyed*.

There were another 4500-5500 'modern' tanks (built since about 1985) in storage - predominantly T-72B and T-80B/U. Of these, 1500-2000 have been produced in the last 20 years and have been upgraded to be 'service ready'. This means they should be able to be pulled out of storage, have their wear/time limited parts replaced/replenished, have ERA and other sensitive items installed, get stocked up on fuel and ammo, get tested and then be good to go. 

Theoretically. If they've been stored correctly. And the proper maintenance practices and intervals have been observed. And they haven't had some bits stripped or stolen. And if they're actually there in the first place.

Assume though that Russia's total deployable tank strength against Ukraine is somewhere in the region of 4200-5500 tanks. In that case, Russia has only lost about 14% to 18% of its available tank force.

The remaining 2000-3500 'modern' tanks in storage have been there since the 1990s would need more serious maintenance. This could be something as simple as replacing perished/degraded seals and various fluid lines to much more complex jobs, like performing major overhauls or getting new circuit boards printed to make targeting system firmware compatible with new ammunition. Also, a lot of these stored tanks have been turned into donor vehicles - one article I read suggested that pre-war, as few as one in 10 were actually capable of being put into battle without being returned to the factory for work.

Then there were a further 4000+ 'older' tanks in storage - mostly early T-72 models. These are unmodernised and mostly date from the late 1970s and early 1980s. Most of these would require major work to have them brought up to a compatibility standard with the rest of Russia's tank force. As in thousands of man hours of work per tank. Now, the longer the war drags on, the more time Russia will have to put those older, deep storage vehicles into service. But, that's going to be a slow, time consuming and expensive process, and it assumes that A) Russia can be bothered to put them into service, and B) Russia has the capability to put them into service. 


To put this another way: Russia's sole tank plant at UralVagonZavod is capable of producing around 250 new tanks per year. Again, theoretically. Between 2007 and 2016, it actually produced roughly 75 to 150 new tanks per year. So, in terms of new tanks lost, Ukraine has already cost Russia somewhere between three and six years worth of new production.

UralVagonZavod also upgrades a lot of T-72s and T-80s to more modern standards. Capability to do this is around 300 tanks per year. But actual production was more like 220-230. So, in terms of re-manufactured tanks, Russia has lost at least two to three years worth of production.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 28, 2022)

A very informative post. This brings up a few other Elephants hiding in the corner of the room.

Other equipment is the first. Armoured vehicles and soft skin transport being one. What is the repair / replacement capacity ?

Air assets is the second. What maintenance and parts levels have been kept up ? Are they at a high state of repair and readiness
or are they below par ? Previous posts from knowledgable members have shown the lack of use of air power. Is it actually there ?

The next is ammunition. What are the stocks and what is the current manufacturing capability for a sustained war ?

The last is what is actually being held available to counter other threats ? Is there enough to cover other borders (Poland etc) let
alone carry out offensive operations should they be called for (hopefully not) ?

Lots of questions and so far it seems the answers may not be what higher ups in Russia would want to hear.

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## ThomasP (Apr 28, 2022)

If the Russians are actually paranoid about NATO attacking them when their attention is on the Ukraine, then there is no way that they will deploy more than a limited amount of their air power into the Ukraine. It is just too much of their defensive/offensive ability to risk not having it available and deployable where needed in case of a major NATO attack.

As I mentioned up-thread, in a head-to-head air war, NATO and the US would shred the Russian air forces. The Russian higher-ups should know this. Pretty much every nation that uses the current Western air platforms and/or uses the current Russian platforms knows this, and are often quite open about it on their website discussions. I am not saying that the US and NATO would not take serious losses, but there really is no question as to the general outcome.

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 28, 2022)

The scalation in Transnistria/Moldovia may unfold in unexpected ways.

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## J_P_C (Apr 28, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> If the Russians are actually paranoid about NATO attacking them when their attention is on the Ukraine, then there is no way that they will deploy more than a limited amount of their air power into the Ukraine. It is just too much of their defensive/offensive ability to risk not having it available and deployable where needed in case of a major NATO attack.
> 
> As I mentioned up-thread, in a head-to-head air war, NATO and the US would shred the Russian air forces. The Russian higher-ups should know this. Pretty much every nation that uses the current Western air platforms and/or uses the current Russian platforms knows this, and are often quite open about it on their website discussions. I am not saying that the US and NATO would not take serious losses, but there really is no question as to the general outcome.


couple months ago one of the polish defence specialists published good assasement of the VKS condition. Just to bring only summary of this, by his opinion, condition of the military aviation of russia is close to catastrophical (publication has been made could be two months before war). He pointed to the situation that majority of russian air force equipment already reached or will reach soon limits of equipment life. Observing news stories everything seems to confirm his opinions - for me significant indication is lack of reports of Su-24 actions (officially its number should be bigger than Su-34), no reports about significant activity of MIG29 from russian side and so on...Another significant item is close to none usage of the guided air to ground ammunition by russians - probably stockpiled quantities were enough just for presentation during MAKS airshow.

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## at6 (Apr 28, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Harvey Wallbanger's more my style: sweet tasting and lethal, with a hangover to reinforce your guilt complex.


What? Your family is like mine was?

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## at6 (Apr 28, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Hell no! You're the guy that offended him! Take your punishment and turn the other cheek!"


You sure as hell aren't me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Strike me and die !!!!!!!!!

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm sorry if I gave the impression I was disagreeing with you; I wasn't. I don't see us disagreeing as much as (it seems to me) we each have our own particular concerns and perspectives.


We both don't have a problem to discuss different point of views - but we need to be careful that our (partially opposing) arguments do not end up with us placing wrong 
words into each others mouth. - I think that's all

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Blowing up stuff in other countries is an "illegal action?"


I believe this to be a rather serious issue. Since Russia has been trying (actually did) to justify juridically their political and military actions towards the Ukraine, they are just a interested 
in doing the same in regards to possible actions towards those supporting the Ukraine with weapons. 
It seems obvious to the Russians that these (blowing up stuff) actions are not simply conducted by just Ukrainian forces.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If you're operating your mobile air defence guns within sight of the enemy's MBTs you're doing it wrong. I believe the Gepard will be used close behind the front lines in concealed positions to destroy Russian helicopters and strike aircraft. Any MBT close enough to see the Gepard had better already be dead or fighting for its life against NLAW/Javelin equipped Ukrainian infantry. On the Gepard, can it reliably down cruise missiles and land attack missiles?


I don't agree with that assumption, because that is exactly as for what the Gepard was build for - to accompany infantry and armored vehicles into battle (not 20 miles behind).
That in today's modern arsenal, almost 40 years after it's introduction e.g. composite and reactive armor - the threat posed by a today's MBT is entirely different.

But we are talking about the Ukraine war - conducted on the Russian side by mostly Ukrainian/Russian irregulars and their shitty equipment - e.g. T-62's and T-72's and a huge number
of AFV's. The Ukrainians are forcibly conducting a urban warfare concentrated defense. And a T-62 or T-72 and even better Russian MBT's are basically impractical in such a warfare (unless one doesn't care about MBT losses).
Therefore the Russian "advance" goes antique - artillery and missile shelling supported by airstrikes and then moving their ground-forces into "suspected" clear territory.
So the front-line is actually the perfect? place for a Gepard to be - embedded in a defensive position and logically surrounded by infantry, ATGM teams, AFV and MBT's.

As I had already mentioned before I never suggested or indicated a head on head (knife to knife) fight between a Gepard and a MBT, but a Gepard being an integral part
in a defensive position and if the air is clear (MBT's) even in an offensive move.

Therefore IMO the latest Israeli Merkava is actually the tank, that would be best suited for the Ukrainians - since their counter-offensive will run into the same urban war style
then conducted by the Russians. However I am not sure about Israels view or policy onto the Ukraine/Russian war.

It's updated radar can track objects up to 20 miles (the old one about 10 miles) with it's gun velocity and using Ahead-ammunition it certainly can take out a non-hyper cruise
missile, anything in regards to a ballistic missile is out of it's capability.

But unfortunately as it seems - the Gepard might not come to the Ukraine since so far no decision has been made to produce the respective ammo by Germany or the Brazil ammo-deal
having been concluded. (If I am not wrong, Brazil abstained at the human-rights UN council issue).

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> True, but on the other hand I kind of admire them for being able to stick towards their laws - unlike presently Germany.


Sticking to a law isn't good by itself if the law isn't good.

Regarding the swiss themselves, sticking to banking secret and giving closed eyes to all the money coming from all kind of despots, satraps and money launderers in a gay people in the military 1990s bill (don't ask, don't tell) maybe be lawful but certainly is not right.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Sticking to a law isn't good by itself if the law isn't good.
> 
> Regarding the swiss themselves, sticking to banking secret and giving closed eyes to all the money coming from all kind of despots, satraps and money launderers in a gay people in the military 1990s bill (don't ask, don't tell) maybe be lawful but certainly is not right.


Not disagreeing with maybe non-suitable laws, but the Swiss laws (contrary to almost any other democratic country) are IIRC solely based on the populations decisions.
For any law or change of law a peoples vote/referendum is necessary.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 28, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Not disagreeing with maybe non-suitable laws, but the Swiss laws (contrary to almost any other democratic country) are IIRC solely based on the populations decisions.
> For any law or change of law a peoples vote/referendum is necessary.


That the laws in vigour have a mayoritarian support don't make them right either, but as 
X
 XBe02Drvr
says, T4MF.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I don't agree with that assumption, because that is exactly as for what the Gepard was build for - to accompany infantry and armored vehicles into battle (not 20 miles behind).
> That in today's modern arsenal, almost 40 years after it's introduction e.g. composite and reactive armor - the threat posed by a today's MBT is entirely different.
> 
> But we are talking about the Ukraine war - conducted on the Russian side by mostly Ukrainian/Russian irregulars and their shitty equipment - e.g. T-62's and T-72's and a huge number
> ...


I watched a video by “Bismarck“ (Chris) of Military Aviation History on the Gepard. 
My takeaway was that there isn’t enough of them. He mentioned that of the 50 or so that Rheinmetall-etc have, perhaps about 15 or so might be readily available. That would require a large logistic train for too small a quantity of vehicles. 
I got a kick out of him pointing out that the picture of all those Marders that should have been sent to Ukraine was actually taken in 2004 and was prior to scrapping. Compared to the Russian tanks in “ready reserve “, the “to be scrapped“ Marders look immaculate.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

Well, the whiney bitch (T4FM if you're following all this at home) has gone into overdrive. Here are some of the latest BBC reports:

Kremlin Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova is claiming that the West is openly calling for Ukraine to attack Russia....so, let me get this straight, it's ok for Russia to invade Ukraine but it's not ok for Ukraine to defend itself by disrupting Russian logistics?

_Western countries are now openly calling for Ukraine to attack Russia, Kremlin Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova says.
Speaking after a top UK minister said Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets were legitimate, she warned that the West should take Moscow's vows to respond to strikes on its territory seriously.
Her comments come after Russia reported multiple blasts and an ammunition depot fire yesterday in the country's south, the latest in a spate of incidents described by a top Ukrainian official as "karma."
As we reported earlier this morning, the UK's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that it was fair for Ukraine to strike Russian targets in self-defence.
"If Ukraine did choose to target the logistics structure of the Russian army, that would be legitimate under international law," Wallace said.
Earlier this week another UK minister __said it would be legitimate for Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons on Russian soil._


And Ms. Zakharova again, warning the US that the world will remember US war crimes...except that the US military and its Allies worked really hard to minimize civilian casualties whereas the Russian military is actively targeting them:

_Moscow has responded to reports that the US is considering labelling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, saying it is a measure of an "idiotic nature" which will not remain unanswered.
"We, of course, do not leave anything unanswered, and they should understand this," TASS news agency reported Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, as saying.
She said US attempts to take unfriendly measures against Russia - because of crimes allegedly committed in Ukraine - may "ricochet" on Washington.
"The more the US starts up this topic in the minds of the international community, the more the international community remembers the crimes of the US," she said._


Now it's Dmitry Peskov's turn. Apparently, providing arms to Ukraine is destabilizing Europe (but, again, invading Ukraine didn't?):

_Sending heavy weapons and other arms to Ukraine is dangerous for European security, the Kremlin has warned Western nations.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov was responding to a speech by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urging Kyiv's allies to "ramp up" military production to help Ukraine.
Western allies have maintained their support does not amount to a military confrontation between Moscow and Nato.
But Peskov told reporters: "The tendency to pump weapons, including heavy weapons into Ukraine, these are the actions that threaten the security of the continent, provoke instability."
It comes after President Vladimir Putin warned nations creating "strategic threats" for Russia by intervening in the Ukraine war would face a "lightning-fast" response._


And, last but, but by no means least, back to Ms Zahkarova. Apparently, the UK's comments have given permission for Ukraine to make attacks inside Russian territory:

_Some more now from the Russian foreign ministry press conference, where spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned the West against encouraging Ukraine to attack inside Russian territory.
"Further provocation prompting Ukraine to strike against Russian facilities will be met with a harsh response from Russia," she said.
Zakharova singled out UK armed forces minister James Heappey - saying that his claim that it would be "legitimate" for Kyiv to carry out strikes in Russia was being taken by Ukraine as permission to act.
Russia would not allow Western officials visiting Ukraine to deter it from launching retaliatory strikes on nearby Ukrainian targets, she also warned.
"Advisers from Western countries staying in Ukraine's decision-making centres will not necessarily be a problem for Russia's response measures."_


I'm particularly tickled by the idea that Ukraine now has "permission to act" because Britain's Defence Minister said it was legitimate for Ukraine to make attacks inside Russia (for those not tracking, Heappey formerly served in the British Army and so has some concept of legality in warfare).

This is the problem with totalitarian regimes...they simply can't understand the concept of people actually thinking for themselves. They can't understand that Zelensky isn't defending Ukraine because the US and the West tell him to. He's doing it because it's his JOB and he's acting in his own nation's best interests. And he's FREE to do that without the approval or permission of ANY other nation.

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## special ed (Apr 28, 2022)

In theory Russia can't spend Euros and since Russia demands payment for gas in Rubles, they aren't getting paid. Russia announced they will shut off the gas.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 28, 2022)

special ed said:


> In theory Russia can't spend Euros and since Russia demands payment for gas in Rubles, they aren't getting paid. Russia announced they will shut off the gas.


That’s great. Russia runs out of money sooner.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This is the problem with totalitarian regimes...they simply can't understand the concept of people actually thinking for themselves. They can't understand that Zelensky isn't defending Ukraine because the US and the West tell him to. He's doing it because it's his JOB and he's acting in his own nation's best interests. And he's FREE to do that without the approval or permission of ANY other nation.


Putin is just waiting for Steiner's assault to bring things under control.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That’s great. Russia runs out of money sooner.



Except that European nations may be looking for loopholes so they can pay Russia in roubles and continue to get all that lovely gas. Report below is BBC but based on work by the Financial Times:
_
It's being reported that European energy companies could use a loophole in order to satisfy a Russian demand that gas be paid for in roubles – amid fears that the supply might be cut off to more countries.

On Wednesday, the state-owned energy giant Gazprom halted gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria over their refusal to pay in roubles.

Today, the Financial Times is reporting that two of the single largest importers of Russian gas to Europe - Germany's Uniper and Austria's OMV - are preparing to use a new system which allows them to acquiesce to Russia's demand.

In order not to breach EU sanctions, Russia established a mechanism in late March whereby European companies would continue to pay Gazprombank - the Swiss-based financial arm of Gazprom - for their imports in euros.

The Russian bank, which is not under EU sanctions, would then convert euro-denominated deposits into roubles in a second account opened in their name, for onward payment to Russia, the FT reports.

Tiina Tuomela, chief financial officer of Uniper, told the newspaper that the company believes this amended payment process complies with sanctions._

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## special ed (Apr 28, 2022)

Are there that many Rubles in existance?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That the laws in vigour have a mayoritarian support don't make them right either, but as
> X
> XBe02Drvr
> says, T4MF.


Okay, but what makes the implementation of a law more valid then the wish of the peoples majority?
And the Swiss people in majority are not willing to give up their stance onto neutrality. Off course neutrality being surrounded by friendly powers is somewhat very feasible.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, the whiney bitch (T4FM if you're following all this at home) has gone into overdrive. Here are some of the latest BBC reports:
> 
> Kremlin Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova is claiming that the West is openly calling for Ukraine to attack Russia....so, let me get this straight, it's ok for Russia to invade Ukraine but it's not ok for Ukraine to defend itself by disrupting Russian logistics?
> 
> ...



The Ukrainians have given a Tejas-style reply to this spate of puling whinery:

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I watched a video by “Bismarck“ (Chris) of Military Aviation History on the Gepard.
> My takeaway was that there isn’t enough of them. He mentioned that of the 50 or so that Rheinmetall-etc have, perhaps about 15 or so might be readily available. That would require a large logistic train for too small a quantity of vehicles.
> I got a kick out of him pointing out that the picture of all those Marders that should have been sent to Ukraine was actually taken in 2004 and was prior to scrapping. Compared to the Russian tanks in “ready reserve “, the “to be scrapped“ Marders look immaculate.


Actually only 12 are ready to be send, but as long as the ammo issue isn't solved - it doesn't really matter
Unfortunately for the Ukraine the political process required in Germany to send so called heavy weapons - is probably hindering actual supplies to ever reach the Ukraine before
August/September this year. Sad but fact.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

If Poland is sending T-72s, why not MiG-29s? A lot has changed since those days in March, and I'd like to see Poland revisit the MiG-29 decision.









Poland confirms T-72 tank delivery to Ukraine, with Challenger 2 tanks to fill gap


Poland’s prime minister has confirmed the country supplied its Soviet-designed T-72 tanks to Ukraine to support the fight against Russia, which invaded Ukraine Feb. 24.




www.defensenews.com





If that's all 250-300 of Poland's T-72s that's a serious increase in Ukraine's MBT fleet. Especially if the 2019 upgrades are all made.

Good on the Czechs earlier this month as well.









The main battle tanks and other vehicles that the Czech Republic is sending to Ukraine







www.outono.net

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That’s great. Russia runs out of money sooner.


I wouldn't really know about Russia's financial issues or maybe problems.
But I am aware that the present humanitarian crisis (5-6 million) Ukrainians fleeing and finding refuge outside of the Ukraine might increase to as much as 10 million by Summer/Autumn
this year. And that issue alone will cost tenth of billions for the EU. After all you can't just place 6 million people into tents and ask them to play ping-pong the whole day for month and maybe a year and more to come.
Looking at all our debt ridden Western governments - I wonder where these billions will be coming from, as usual by cutting down on defense spending's?

Please don't get me wrong - but the Czar is anything but stupid when it comes to judging and analyzing our Western countries structures.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Looking at all our debt ridden Western governments - I wonder where these billions will be coming from, as usual by cutting down on defense spending's?


The postwar global economy and international debt system was designed by the West. If the West needs more money, they'll find it. The whole concept of what is money is up for interpretation by those in control.


Jagdflieger said:


> Please don't get me wrong - but the Czar is anything but stupid when it comes to judging and analyzing our Western countries structures.


I think Putin significantly misunderstood and misjudged how the US and the West would unify and react to his Ukraine project. I think the former POTUS might have confused Putin's understanding of the resolve and even interest of the US and western countries.

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## vikingBerserker (Apr 28, 2022)

Even if they find a work around to buy Russian gas, it's only to buy them time until they can fully replace it. I think Europe shot themselves in the foot for becoming so heaivly reliant on Russian gas but I also think Putin has really shot himself in the foot by using it as a weapon.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think Europe shot themselves in the foot for becoming so heaivly reliant on Russian gas but I also think Putin has really shot himself in the foot by using it as a weapon.


It's the same as all of us in the West becoming reliant on cheap Chinese crap to control inflation and to drive our corporate profits and stock markets. We need to think before we chase the all mighty dollar. Look at Australia now, where Australian coal is sold nearly entirely to China. As an aside, Australian coal is now one of the top global producers of GHG.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, the whiney bitch (T4FM if you're following all this at home) has gone into overdrive. Here are some of the latest BBC reports:
> 
> Kremlin Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova is claiming that the West is openly calling for Ukraine to attack Russia....so, let me get this straight, it's ok for Russia to invade Ukraine but it's not ok for Ukraine to defend itself by disrupting Russian logistics?
> 
> ...


So the attacks on russian soil are from the ukrainians????? Not from the SAS????? 

What a deception!!!!! The UK has failed us

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The postwar global economy and international debt system was designed by the West. If the West needs more money, they'll find it. The whole concept of what is money is up for interpretation by those in control.
> 
> I think Putin significantly misunderstood and misjudged how the US and the West would unify and react to his Ukraine project. I think the former POTUS might have confused Putin's understanding of the resolve and even interest of the US and western countries.


Printing money widely causes inflation - and whatever one borrows one needs to pay back with interest - the GDP isn't growing and as such the budgets won't likely increase either.
Putin just as NATO took into account that the Ukraine issue would be dealt with within a week or two. Since end of March his dreams went wet - but he also knows how to adjust towards
the new situation. Either NATO goes in now and calls his bluff or the Ukraine issue will become financially unbearable for the West - just my opinion.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Apr 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay, but what makes the implementation of a law more valid then the wish of the peoples majority?


The moral value of the law. I could put some examples but I doubt this is the place. I think it could be a great debate to hold but would go dangerously close to forbiden waters here.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 28, 2022)

Regarding all the recent whiney bitch rhetoric noted above, though to us there are obvious logical disconnects, the statements are probably more geared toward bolstering government messaging to the perhaps increasingly uneasy Russian public.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Regarding all the recent whiney bitch rhetoric noted above, though to us there are obvious logical disconnects, the statements are probably more geared toward bolstering government messaging to the perhaps increasingly uneasy Russian public.



Undoubtedly true. But that's the problem when you fabricate an alternate reality...it inevitably gets further and further from actual reality, and you end up looking stoopid: to wit, Baghdad Bob. 

Putin and his cronies must KNOW that NATO isn't going to conduct offensive operations against Russia, and yet NATO is one of the bogeymen he uses to whip up anti-western hysteria. 

They also must KNOW that Zelensky is acting on his own cognition and not because western leaders are telling him to do things...indeed, it's more the other way round where western leaders are asking Zelensky for what he needs and helping to reinforce Ukrainian objectives for the fight rather than dictating terms of their own. 

Unfortunately, in such alternate realities, the default approach is to refuse any opportunity for your parallel universe to be questioned, either by solely appearing on media platforms that endorse your view or by applying the "fake news" label to anything that contradicts you. 

We can only hope that, at some point (preferably as soon as possible), Putin and his vile toadies go the way of their illustrious forebear from Iraq.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 28, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Regarding all the recent whiney bitch rhetoric noted above, though to us there are obvious logical disconnects, the statements are probably more geared toward bolstering government messaging to the perhaps increasingly uneasy Russian public.



... and perhaps preparing in them the grounds for a wider war.

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## Crimea_River (Apr 28, 2022)

As in "do you want total war?".....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 28, 2022)

_A senior U.S. defense official said today that Russian troops are making "slow, uneven and incremental" progress in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. The Russians are meeting strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces, and there's lots of "back and forth" in the daily fighting, but no "huge changes," the official said.

As Russia addresses the logistical problems its forces had in the early days of the war, it's operating in a relatively cautious manner to avoid overextending its supply lines, the official said. He noted that the Russians "sprinted" toward Kyiv in the first days of the fighting, and then found themselves stuck because they couldn't be resupplied in a timely manner.

Russia also has begun pulling some of its forces away from the besieged coastal city of Mariupol, presumably so those troops can take part in fighting further inland, the U.S. official said. But many Russian troops remain in Mariupol, the official added, and Russia continues to carry out airstrikes. "You don't do that if you think you've already won the battle of Mariupol," the official said. 









War in Ukraine live updates: The U.N. opens talks on the global response to Russian actions in Ukraine


The U.S. ambassador for global criminal justice cited credible reports of sexual violence and torture in Ukraine, saying "the world is watching." Also, the EU called the moves of Russian energy giant Gazprom a failed attempt to blackmail Europe.



www.npr.org




_

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## J_P_C (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Poland is sending T-72s, why not MiG-29s? A lot has changed since those days in March, and I'd like to see Poland revisit the MiG-29 decision.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


are you sure about Mig29???

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## J_P_C (Apr 28, 2022)

well.... situation will change soon...

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 28, 2022)

Interesting article on the history of Moldovia covering the Romania/Moldovia/Transnistria/Ukriane- Russia conundrum.
Written in April 2015 but could have been written yesterday.



https://euromaidanpress.com/2015/04/16/why-romania-will-fight-russia/

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> are you sure about Mig29???


No. Can’t be sure about anything we read online. What have you read?


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## Glider (Apr 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> So the attacks on russian soil are from the ukrainians????? Not from the SAS?????
> 
> What a deception!!!!! The UK has failed us


Terribly sorry old chap

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## J_P_C (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No. Can’t be sure about anything we read online. What have you read?


i've read that Ukrainian air force since last couple days have +20 Migs and statement of Ukrainian officials that delivery of Migs from Poland will not be subject of discussion any more...

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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> Terribly sorry old chap



For pity's sake, don't apologize. They'll only come back with yet more complaints on how Britain did this wrong or that wrong. They're so NEEDY!!!

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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> For pity's sake, don't apologize. They'll only come back with yet more complaints on how Britain did this wrong or that wrong. They're so NEEDY!!!


Fight damn you fight
I hate peace

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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No. Can’t be sure about anything we read online. What have you read?



To quote Abraham Lincoln_ Everything you read on the internet is true._

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 28, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i've read that Ukrainian air force since last couple days have +20 Migs and statement of Ukrainian officials that delivery of Migs from Poland will not be subject of discussion any more...


Saw this one the other day;









The Ukrainian Air Force Just Got Bigger. Someone Gave Kyiv More MiG Parts.


Amazingly considering the odds against them, Ukraine’s airmen have more flyable fighters today than they did in early April, according to U.S. Defense Department spokesman John Kirby.




www.forbes.com













Ukraine's Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft after influx of spare parts, senior US defense official says | CNN Politics


The Ukrainian Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft to its fleet because of an influx of spare parts, according to a senior US defense official.




www.cnn.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 28, 2022)

For those worried about ammo for the german gepards. Brazil will provide 300.000 shells.


https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brazil-will-provide-300-000-shells-for-the-german-gepard-in-ukraine/



Problem solved.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> For those worried about ammo for the german gepards. Brazil will provide 300.000 shells.
> 
> 
> https://mil.in.ua/en/news/brazil-will-provide-300-000-shells-for-the-german-gepard-in-ukraine/
> ...


It really is amazing how most of the world outside of Africa is sending aid to Ukraine. Does Russia now threaten Brazil?

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Saw this one the other day;
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I bet Peru has a large stockpile of MiG-29 spares.


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## Denniss (Apr 28, 2022)

Polish MiGs disassembled and donated as "spare" parts?

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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2022)

This arrived in my mailbox labelled _Slick Elite Russian tank crew shows how it's done_. Not knowing one tank from another I have a suspicion that this is not a Russian tank but I may be wrong. Comments from those who know please.

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## hawkeye2an (Apr 28, 2022)

Get these updated and sent to Ukraine ASAP, it's Planting season!

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Look at Australia now, where Australian coal is sold nearly entirely to China. As an aside, Australian coal is now one of the top global producers of GHG.



Might want to check your facts there Admiral. 

Japan, not China, is Australia's largest market for coal exports. Around 120 million tonnes a year. China is second largest market, at around 60-80 million tonnes per year. China accoints for less than 25% of total Australian coal exports - and that share has been falling for three years straight.

Next is South Korea and India, which are usually about 35-45 million tonnes. India will likely take more Australian coal than China this year though, thanks to COVIID-19 and China's limiting of steel production.

Also, Australian coal produces circa 3% of total GHG emissions. 

China is Australia's largest market for exports overall - coal, LNG, iron ore, gold and copper. About $150 billion, or nearly half of total exports by value.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 28, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Polish MiGs disassembled and donated as "spare" parts?


And reassembled in Ukraine. I like it.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> This arrived in my mailbox labelled _Slick Elite Russian tank crew shows how it's done_. Not knowing one tank from another I have a suspicion that this is not a Russian tank but I may be wrong. Comments from those who know please.



It's a Russian 2S3 self-propelled artillery piece.


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## buffnut453 (Apr 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And reassembled in Ukraine. I like it.
> 
> View attachment 666199



I vote that they win the forum's awards for all Group Builds for the foreseeable future.

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## at6 (Apr 28, 2022)

Since Russia has decided not to send natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, there might need to be an "accident" at one of the gas facilities.

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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2022)

I do not use Farsebook but a lot of people do. I also have my browser set to block adverts and trackers. Since the last browser update *all* links to Arsebook provide the following message






This to me is great as it shows just how much Farcebook intends to respect your privacy and that my browser is doing what it claims it does. 

Czar Zuckerberg has as much tolerance for your wishes as Czar Putin has for the Ukrainian peoples wishes.

My response to both Czars is _phuque thee_

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## fubar57 (Apr 28, 2022)

I had Facebook for about three minutes and then deleted it. I have Instagram to see what my kids and family are up


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## MiTasol (Apr 28, 2022)

Sorry young fella but you DO use facebook - you just do not realize it.

If you do a web search for who owns instagram this is the result you will get






Saying you don't use Farcebook is just like saying _I do not drive a Ford, I drive a Mustang._

The same lack of privacy etc etc etc apply at Instagram

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## GrauGeist (Apr 29, 2022)

I've had eff-book since '08 - I suppose dealing with the public (and sales staff) for decades has given me thick skin.

I use it to stay in touch with friends and family all over the world, post cat photos to the cat group I'm in, and start sh!t in a few other groups.

I also get great material for my "history according to random people" thread here, from a few sources there

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting article on the history of Moldovia covering the Romania/Moldovia/Transnistria/Ukriane- Russia conundrum.
> Written in April 2015 but could have been written yesterday.
> 
> 
> ...


Historically this article is total nonsense. The Kingdom of Moldavia already existed 500 years before a Romania was born out of the partly joining by the four Kingdoms
Siebenbuergen, Walachia, Transylvania and Moldavia. Unless someone want's to revert history by 2000 years to the Roman Empire. Which then would make most of Europe
Roman anyway - Oh my God I am Italian?

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## J_P_C (Apr 29, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> This arrived in my mailbox labelled _Slick Elite Russian tank crew shows how it's done_. Not knowing one tank from another I have a suspicion that this is not a Russian tank but I may be wrong. Comments from those who know please.


actually this is 152mm self propelled gun-hawitzer 2S3 Akatsya,


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## MiTasol (Apr 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> actually this is 152mm self propelled gun-hawitzer 2S3 Akatsya,


Thanks


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## MiTasol (Apr 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's a Russian 2S3 self-propelled artillery piece.


Thanks


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## MiTasol (Apr 29, 2022)

Two articles from US sources show widely differing outcomes and agendas








Congress Clears Bill to Allow Lending Arms to Ukraine


House passage of the measure, which invoked the World War II-era Lend-Lease Act, sent it to President Biden for his signature.




www.nytimes.com












Congress says $33 billion Ukraine bill will take some time to flesh out | CNN Politics


Republicans and Democrats warn there are many issues that need to be sorted out over President Joe Biden's Ukraine supplemental funding request that officially came Thursday -- including drafting the legislative language -- and the whole process could take weeks until there are final votes in...




edition.cnn.com

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 29, 2022)

Looks like Russia's ground forces have decisively changed tactics over the past 10 days or so.

Gone are the rapid thrusts down single roads to capture population centers from which they could then consolidate territory.

Russia is now applying general pressure across a large area of front and then deploying several reinforced Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) to undertake mutually supporting, careful advances in key areas - supported heavily by tube artillery and tactical air power. These BTGs will advance against Ukranian opposition where they can. Sometimes successfully, sometimes not. Then they will be rotated out of the line to for rest and logistics support. Whatever ground they manage to take will be held by other BTGs. Then another couple of BTGs will take up the advance, in a sort of leapfrog style.

So far its been somewhat successful. Russia has advanced south and west from Izyum, south from Lyman and north from Donetsk City.

However, it's also very expensive in terms of matériel and manpower. Not only is Russia heavily expending artillery ammunition, but its also putting a LOT of armoured vehicles into contact with Ukrainian forces. In the last three days, Ukraine claims to have destroyed 55 tanks, 80 IFVs/APCs, 15 tube artillery systems and three missile systems, three aircraft, one helicopter and about a dozen UAVs, as well as about 900 troops killed.*

Of course, this sort of broader front warfare is also expensive for the Ukrainians. But, they've got a defensive advantage in a relatively static tactical situation, so I suspect the exchange rate is heavily in their favour.

To me, Russia's tactics are reminiscent of Britain's 'bite-and-hold' tactics from WW1: Gain local manpower/matériel superiority, advance with heavy support from artillery, take and hold tactical/local objectives and then repeat ad nauseaum. You don't overextend your lines and wander into an ambush, you don't outrun your logistical support, you don't have to worry about rear/flank security (too much) and you continue to pour pressure on an enemy that is overmatched in terms of total strength.

My worry for the Ukrainians is that all these local/tactical successes are going to add up to a major strategic success for Russia at some point. If Russian BTGs continue to advance west from Izyum or north from Donetsk City, there is a real risk they will outflank Ukraine's defences and heavy forces and find themselves facing much more limited opposition. They can then turn south or northwest and channel their BTG reserves into a proper encirclement. This would force Ukraine to redeploy forces away from the line of contact in the west - potentially giving large amounts of ground to do so - or to pull back entirely and abandon Donetsk Oblast.


*To put that into context, the worst year for coalition personnel in Afghanistan was 2010, when 710 people were killed.

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## MiTasol (Apr 29, 2022)



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## B-17engineer (Apr 29, 2022)

It's just interesting the morale difference between Ukraine and Russia. While I was in Ukraine I met a young boy (had just turned 13) and he had told me it was recently his birthday. I asked with the war if he was able to celebrate at all, he ended up telling me he spent his birthday making Czech Hedgehogs with his grandfather and some neighbors. The morale I saw of those staying within the country while I was there was incredible, for lack of a better word. They're willing to lose everything. Was fortunate to meet a lot of interesting people during my 2 weeks there. 

I kept a journal of my days there, but due to a couple places I was located and events, I can't put it out on the internet while this is still an active conflict. But I would love to share with you guys at some point!

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And reassembled in Ukraine. I like it.
> 
> View attachment 666199


Ohh god donivanp is doing 1:1 kits now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

_
April 29 (Reuters) - Russia used a diesel submarine in the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian military targets with Kalibr cruise missiles, the first time Moscow has announced the use of its submarine fleet to hit its former Soviet neighbour.

The Russian defence ministry released a video showing a volley of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and soaring off into the horizon - to what the ministry said were Ukrainian military targets.

This is the first time Russia's military has reported using submarine strikes against Ukrainian targets, Interfax news agency reported on Friday._









Russian submarine strikes Ukraine with cruise missiles, defence ministry says


Russia used a diesel submarine in the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian military targets with Kalibr cruise missiles, the first time Moscow has announced the use of its submarine fleet to hit its former Soviet neighbour.




www.reuters.com





Wait 'til the Ukrainians put sonar on their tractors.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

And --

_
HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.

Chinese military experts are discussing the conflict in private chat groups, offering their takes on Western involvement in Ukraine and Russia's perceived failings, say two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.

[...]

"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.


They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.

Singapore-based scholar Collin Koh said such an approach would create its own problems for China's People's Liberation Army.

"If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties," said Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition.

[...]

Chinese strategists also worry about how Russia is contending with indirect Western military assistance, a factor China would also face in a Taiwan scenario, say two scholars and four diplomats.

Chinese experts are privately arguing about the need for Beijing to better compete in the so-called information war, which has complicated Russia's position on the battlefield, Zhao said.

Besides isolating Russia economically, Western diplomatic efforts - and reporting on atrocities in the war zone - have made it easier to provide aid for Ukraine and harder for Russia to find outside support.

[...]

"Taiwan would present a far greater logistical challenge than Ukraine, and to ready an invasion force on that scale undetected would be incredibly difficult," said Alexander Neill, who runs a strategic consultancy in Singapore.

[...]

Chinese analysts worry a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait - widely seen as a far greater military challenge - would face similar problems, as it requires smooth co-operation across its recently formed Southern, Eastern and Northern Theatre Commands.

Russia's forces in Ukraine have had command breakdowns and low morale. Analysts say it's unclear how Chinese troops - untested since they invaded northern Vietnam in 1979 - would perform in a modern conflict._









Analysis: Russia's Ukrainian quagmire providing tough lessons for China


From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.




www.reuters.com





On the one hand, China has the opportunity to learn from Russian mistakes. On the other hand, amphibious assault is one of the toughest evolutions even in peacetime exercises, much less under fire. Much of it depends upon Taiwanese determination and the fighting qualities of the individual Chinese soldier.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> On the one hand, China has the opportunity to learn from Russian mistakes. On the other hand, amphibious assault is one of the toughest evolutions even in peacetime exercises, much less under fire. Much of it depends upon Taiwanese determination and the fighting qualities of the individual Chinese soldier.


China's thinking as they look wistfully at Taiwan:

_"Dammit Russia, did you have to kick the global beehive and bring the West out of its military complacency and unite the world behind a democratically-led territory that broke away from a despotic regime?"_

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 29, 2022)

On the other hand, if they just emphasize that the Taiwanese are Chinese _nationalists, _that should weaken the West's support. Especially if they publish old WW2 era photos of Chinese soldiers wearing coal scuttle helmets.

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## fubar57 (Apr 29, 2022)

B-17engineer said:


> It's just interesting the morale difference between Ukraine and Russia. While I was in Ukraine I met a young boy (had just turned 13) and he had told me it was recently his birthday. I asked with the war if he was able to celebrate at all, he ended up telling me he spent his birthday making Czech Hedgehogs with his grandfather and some neighbors. The morale I saw of those staying within the country while I was there was incredible, for lack of a better word. They're willing to lose everything. Was fortunate to meet a lot of interesting people during my 2 weeks there.
> 
> I kept a journal of my days there, but due to a couple places I was located and events, I can't put it out on the internet while this is still an active conflict. But I would love to share with you guys at some point!



Great to hear you're OK Harry



Thumpalumpacus said:


> _April 29 (Reuters) - Russia used a diesel submarine in the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian military targets with Kalibr cruise missiles, the first time Moscow has announced the use of its submarine fleet to hit its former Soviet neighbour.
> 
> The Russian defence ministry released a video showing a volley of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and soaring off into the horizon - to what the ministry said were Ukrainian military targets.
> 
> ...



Soooo, the Moskva finally strikes back

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

When I read this list List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia I am just amazed at how the world has come together for this one cause. Putin had no clue that this much latent desire to help Ukraine (and kick Russia) was present.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> On the other hand, if they just emphasize that the Taiwanese are Chinese _nationalists, _that should weaken the West's support. Especially if they publish old WW2 era photos of Chinese soldiers wearing coal scuttle helmets.


Taiwan's not a nationalist, fascist state. It's a working democracy with six presidents, all more or less peacefully elected since founding in 1948, though they did have a long period of martial law ending in 1987, before becoming the freer place we know today. But there's no contest when it comes to comparing levels of freedom, corruption, free enterprise and human rights. China is right to want to stamp that out of Taiwan, as they don't want those ideals infecting their own people. Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> there's no contest when it comes to comparing levels of freedom, corruption, free enterprise and human rights. China is right to want to stamp that out of Taiwan, as they don't want those ideals infecting their own people. Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.


Democratic ideals are like sulfuric acid. They corrode any vessel intended to contain and isolate them. Especially if it's iron clad.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And --
> 
> 
> _HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.
> ...


I am sure that EVERY country/state is presently studying (except the Vatican) the Russian-Ukraine war. There are indeed a lot of lessons to be learned from.
Besides the event that some foreign power would set up military bases on Taiwan, I don't see any reason for the PRC to attack Taiwan-and Taiwan is fully aware of that.

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## Zipper730 (Apr 29, 2022)

I was watching a podcast which described military conflicts, and the description of the USSR's war in Afghanistan is very eerily similar to the way the war has gone up to this point (it seems tactics have changed recently).


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## Glider (Apr 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's a Russian 2S3 self-propelled artillery piece.


Correction 
It was a working Russian 2S3 self-propelled artillery piece

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## WARSPITER (Apr 29, 2022)

Glider said:


> Correction
> It was a working Russian 2S3 self-propelled artillery piece


That is the anti-tractor towing away parking position.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> There are indeed a lot of lessons to be learned from.


Lesson one. I think Ministries of Defence, General Staff and troops across the West were shocked at just how sh#ttily equipped the supposed all powerful Russian army, air force and navy is. How such a massive misjudgment of capabilities slipped past IDK, maybe it was echoed by the lobbyists selling arms to the West.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 29, 2022)

On Russian TV, European countries are threatened with a nuclear strike for assisting Ukraine


KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - FRIDAY, APRIL 29, 2022, 17:30 On air on "Russia 1" Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva and State Duma deputy from the LDPR faction Alexei Zhuravlev discussed how many seconds the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile would take to reach the capitals of Great Britain...




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Lesson one. I think Ministries of Defence, General Staff and troops across the West were shocked at just how sh#ttily equipped the supposed all powerful Russian army, air force and navy is. How such a massive misjudgment of capabilities slipped past IDK, maybe it was echoed by the lobbyists selling arms to the West.



It slipped past because we haven't seen the Russian Army operate at this scale beyond its borders for many a year. Russia has used Syria as an operational testing area for several years, and their operations there showed a canny ability to achieve their mission aims while disrupting those of the western nations...and yet doing so without provoking escalation. To all apparent evidence, they were adept planners and smart in execution.

You're also missing some of the more nuanced analysis of the different Russian military arms. Few analysts would have claimed that the Russian Navy was "all powerful", although it has useful reach with its tactical missiles. Similarly, readiness levels in the Russian Air Force were also understood, and it was generally accepted that Russian pilots had considerably lower proficiency levels than their western counterparts. That said, the Air Force has been less of a presence than many believed it would be. 

The big shock was the performance of the Russian Army but, again, what we've seen in the past 3 months does not reflect the experience of Ukrainian forces fighting in the east since 2014. Russian operations in the Donbas showed much better integration of different effects (e.g. IO, cyber, EW, and kinetic fires). Some of the Russian failings are probably due to lack of unified command, over-ambitious planning, and lack of logistics. Since Russia shifted focus to the east, I think we're seeing improvements to all of those shortfalls....although much of the damage is done, and it will take time to reconstitute the logistics resources to restore operational mobility.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _April 29 (Reuters) - Russia used a diesel submarine in the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian military targets with Kalibr cruise missiles, the first time Moscow has announced the use of its submarine fleet to hit its former Soviet neighbour.
> 
> The Russian defence ministry released a video showing a volley of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and soaring off into the horizon - to what the ministry said were Ukrainian military targets.
> 
> ...


Humour aside, how does Ukraine kill this sub? SSKs spend a lot of time on the surface. A single hit from a Bayraktar TB2 should hole the hull.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And reassembled in Ukraine. I like it.
> 
> View attachment 666199


I’ll bet those planes are in better shape now than what the UAF had before 24 February. 
Great job, Donivanp!

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## Zipper730 (Apr 29, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Democratic ideals are like sulfuric acid. They corrode any vessel intended to contain and isolate them. Especially if it's iron clad.


Well they benefit people, so they gain traction. Ironically the fact that they require such extraordinary efforts to suppress shows this. The only problem comes in time of crisis and diversity, ensuring people understand why this system is important and worth defending.

I will not touch this anymore because I'm almost certain I got this suspicious looking red-dot right between my eyes that looks like those laser pointers right as I started typing this

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Taiwan's not a nationalist, fascist state. It's a working democracy with six presidents, all more or less peacefully elected since founding in 1948, though they did have a long period of martial law ending in 1987, before becoming the freer place we know today. But there's no contest when it comes to comparing levels of freedom, corruption, free enterprise and human rights. China is right to want to stamp that out of Taiwan, as they don't want those ideals infecting their own people. Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.



You're right in all this, but with the CCP controlling the Chinese media as tightly as they do, it won't be hard to convince the Chinese public to support an invasion if the government there decides upon that course of action -- or at least convince dissidents to stay quiet.

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> On Russian TV, European countries are threatened with a nuclear strike for assisting Ukraine
> 
> 
> KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - FRIDAY, APRIL 29, 2022, 17:30 On air on "Russia 1" Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva and State Duma deputy from the LDPR faction Alexei Zhuravlev discussed how many seconds the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile would take to reach the capitals of Great Britain...
> ...


Meanwhile (assuming its not fake) Chinese state TV is already partitioning post war Russia.

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## RogerdeLluria (Apr 29, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Saw this one the other day;
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Rumors are starting to circulate that a few (one of the rumors said 11 pilots) Ukrainian pilots are already training on F-16, but I have yet to see a credible source.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Humour aside, how does Ukraine kill this sub? SSKs spend a lot of time on the surface. A single hit from a Bayraktar TB2 should hole the hull.



Being unfamiliar with Russian subs in general, I had to look this up.

_Type 636 submarine designThe submarine consists of six watertight compartments separated by transverse bulkheads in a pressurised double-hull. The design and the submarine's optimal reserve buoyancy lead to increased survivability if the submarine is holed, even with one compartment and two adjacent ballast tanks flooded._









SSK Kilo Class (Type 636)


The Russian Kilo-class submarine first entered service in the early 1980s. It was designed by the Rubin Central Maritime Design Bureau in St Petersburg. Subsequent developments led to the improved production versions, including the Type 877EKM, Type 636, and Type 636.3. A successor, the Lada...




www.naval-technology.com





Not sure if the four smart micro-munitions the Bayraktar carries (50 lbs apiece) would be able to overcome this ... I guess a lot would depend upon the damage-control practiced by the sub's crew.

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## SaparotRob (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And --
> 
> 
> _HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.
> ...


The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan 🇹🇼 the espirit des corps as well? It’s one thing to have cool gear but it’s the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I’m thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven’t been following this too closely.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan 🇹🇼 the espirit des corps as well? It’s one thing to have cool gear but it’s the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I’m thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven’t been following in



I know that as of last year we had US GIs on the island helping to train Taiwanese. To what capability, and in what capacity, I'm not sure.

_The US has been secretly maintaining a small contingent of military trainers in Taiwan for at least a year, according to a new report, the latest sign of the rising stakes in US-China rivalry.

About two dozen US special forces soldiers and an unspecified number of marines are now training Taiwanese forces, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The trainers were first sent to Taiwan by the Trump administration but their presence had not been reported until now.

The report came as President Tsai Ing-wen said on Friday that Taiwan will "do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life".

"Taiwan does not seek military confrontation," she told a security forum in Taipei. "It hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbours. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life."_









Secret group of US military trainers has been in Taiwan for at least a year


Small contingent of US special forces and marines training local forces in latest sign of rising US-China tensions




www.theguardian.com





I'd be willing to bet after seeing how what was left of democracy in Hong Kong get snuffed out in the last 18 months that the Taiwanese will be motivated fighters.

According to the _Taipei Times_:


_Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.

However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center._









Poll says 72.5% of Taiwanese willing to fight against forced unification by China - Taipei Times


Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found. However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared...




www.taipeitimes.com





Considering Taiwan's rough terrain, I don't doubt that those Taiwanese willing to fight it out could give the Chinese a bloody nose.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not sure if the four smart micro-munitions the Bayraktar carries (50 lbs apiece) would be able to overcome this ... I guess a lot would depend upon the damage-control practiced by the sub's crew.



Sounds like the Bayraktar is 100% over-equipped with missiles...at least if the Moskva experience is anything to go by. 

Shall I get my coat?

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Lesson one. I think Ministries of Defence, General Staff and troops across the West were shocked at just how sh#ttily equipped the supposed all powerful Russian army, air force and navy is. How such a massive misjudgment of capabilities slipped past IDK, maybe it was echoed by the lobbyists selling arms to the West.


You sure??? - I think those involved in every-days military issues have been aware about this since the 70's.
But it was never in the interest of military hardware producers to openly admit this. I guess they are facing an uncertain future now.

Okay now I will look for my dugout and hide.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan 🇹🇼 the espirit des corps as well? It’s one thing to have cool gear but it’s the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I’m thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven’t been following this too closely.


There used to be quite a frequent exchange with ASEAN countries - foremost Singapore. But upon China waving the $$ this has more or less all gone down to zero, since 2000

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## buffnut453 (Apr 29, 2022)

US DOD reporting more schedule problems for the Russian assaults in the east:
_
The Russian campaign to seize control of the Donbas region is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official has said.

Fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and caution after Russia's failure to capture Kyiv has led to "slow and uneven progress" in the region, the Pentagon believes.

The official said Russian troops are wary of getting ahead of their supply lines, adding: "We believe that essentially what they're doing is continuing to set conditions for a sustained and larger and longer offensive."

The Pentagon believes the Russians "are at least several days behind where they wanted to be," the official said.

Moscow has 92 battalion tactical groups in the east and south of Ukraine now, with more poised on the Russian side of the border, according to the US department of defence.

But those groups are not necessarily full-strength after significant setbacks in the first weeks of the invasion, the official said._

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I know that as of last year we had US GIs on the island helping to train Taiwanese.To what capability, and in what capacity, I'm not sure.
> 
> _The US has been secretly maintaining a small contingent of military trainers in Taiwan for at least a year, according to a new report, the latest sign of the rising stakes in US-China rivalry.
> 
> ...


Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.



Agreed, the Taiwanese want to be left alone, and the Chinese tend to prefer relatively-peaceful long-term designs for attaining foreign-policy objectives.

If the Chinese had plans and processes moving forward for invading Taiwan (not something in a file-cabinet, but actively preparing) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably added a decade to that timetable by dint of the overwhelming response shown by the world to naked aggression. This flexing of soft power is probably giving them second thoughts about any potential invasion.

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## GTX (Apr 29, 2022)

Sobering read:









What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria


Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.




www.politico.com

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed, the Taiwanese want to be left alone, and the Chinese tend to prefer relatively-peaceful long-term designs for attaining foreign-policy objectives.
> 
> If the Chinese had plans and processes moving forward for invading Taiwan (not something in a file-cabinet, but actively preparing) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably added a decade to that timetable by dint of the overwhelming response shown by the world to naked aggression. This flexing of soft power is probably giving them second thoughts about any potential invasion.


Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's now 
ever increasing financial burden into account, might even encourage them to say - now or never. But okay that is just an assumption of mine and not necessarily matching China's long-term play (30-50 years) in regards to Taiwan.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's now
> ever increasing financial burden into account, might even encourage them to say - now or never. But okay that is just an assumption of mine and not necessarily matching China's long-term play (30-50 years) in regards to Taiwan.



It's certainly possible. Chinese designs are sometimes obvious, but are often inscrutable. And yeah, if NATO is overextended then there might be some temptation to do it now. 

China's A2/AD approach to securing the southern seas is not yet fully developed, though, and Taiwan's military (from my understanding) is far better-equipped with missiles than Ukraine. Those two facts in conjunction with China's preference to avoid shooting wars probably militates against the hawks getting their way.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> Sobering read:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's an interesting article, but I don't think Zelenskyy will allow Western ADHD and desire for "de-escalation" to take root. It also ignores the deep concern the EU has in seeing aggression on its doorstep against fellow Europeans.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

RFE, so it may be biased and salt should be applied as needed, but I think there are some good points here: 









Former U.S., NATO Commander Says Putin's War In Ukraine Has Left Russia 'Vulnerable As A Nation'


The former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe has said Russia is "not in a good position" as the 2-month-old Ukraine war grinds on.




www.rferl.org


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## GTX (Apr 29, 2022)

Ukraine latest: Russian troops worn down by assault on Kyiv taking 'colossal losses' in the east, Ukraine says


Ukraine says Russia's renewed push in the country's east has resulted in heavy casualties and the loss of some towns and villages but at much greater cost to the invading troops.




www.abc.net.au

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 29, 2022)

And...









F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’


Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.




www.yahoo.com

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## Glider (Apr 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> US DOD reporting more schedule problems for the Russian assaults in the east:
> 
> _The Russian campaign to seize control of the Donbas region is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official has said.
> 
> ...


The following is from the UK MOD which sees to support the above (albeit in less detail)

Britain said fighting had been particularly heavy around the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, the main part of the Donbas that Russia is still trying to capture, with an attempted advance south from Russian-held Izium towards Sloviansk.

'Due to strong Ukrainian resistance, Russian territorial gains have been limited and achieved at significant cost to Russian forces,' the British defence ministry said in an update.

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## swampyankee (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.


Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.

Quite a few polities have significant political movements to move away from the concept of democracy. Possibly Putin's failure in Ukraine will spill some of the wind from their soot-blackened sails.

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## Glider (Apr 29, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.



I think he was saying that were Ukraine to become an EU member Putin would be verklempt having EU right on his doorstep. Poor deployment of commas.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Glider said:


> I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't



An F-16 pilot is more used to more-complex software. I can't say anything about -29 pilots being able to transition or not, but once you're used to systems architecture, that knowledge is to an extent transferable, whereas if you've never used a system's architecture your learning curve will definitely be steeper.


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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 29, 2022)

Glider said:


> I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't


I can see where he he's coming from. Understand, he's flown all the aircraft in question, and to an extent you and I can only dream of. 
I was in the Navy fighter training world when the F8 was being phased out and pilots were being retreaded in the F4. The younger guys adapted readily, senior LTs and LCDRs, not so much. These were aircraft that came from the same military operational tradition and philosophy, but differed in their flight characteristics, tactical operations, armament and the biggie: CREW COORDINATION. Billy Flynn mentions reflexes and muscle memory, items to be taken seriously where higher time pilots are concerned. Sharing your flight (and fight) with a "back seat driver" is a huge cultural shift for a lone wolf gunslinger.
Now take someone who's become proficient and habitual with a Tonka Toy rocketship like a MiG29, with it's big heavy stick and put him in an electronic whizbang pinball machine with a zero-feedback Atari joystick, like an F16, and you have to rewire his entire nervous system. Its menu of electronic options with all of their ramifications that require split- second decisions easily leads to task saturation. The no-feel joystick leaves a "bank & yank" pilot prone to GLOC. Ask any IP who's had to transition T38 grads into the F16.
Now going a step further, into the F35, and you're asking your "victim" to be a fighter pilot, an attack pilot, a CAS pilot, a wild weasel, a nuclear deterrent delivery system, an intercept director, a battlespace manager, an intelligence gatherer, and a drone pilot. Not your basic MiG29!

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## buffnut453 (Apr 29, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> I was in the Navy fighter training world when the F8 was being phased out and pilots were being retreaded in the F4. The younger guys adapted readily, senior LTs and LCDRs, not so much. These were aircraft that came from the same military operational tradition and philosophy, but differed in their flight characteristics, tactical operations, armament and the biggie: CREW COORDINATION.



The RAF encountered similar problems with the navigators who transitioned from Phantoms to Tornado F3. The 'toom was a mandraulic beast and all that switchography was more than enough to keep the nav busy. Put that same man in the F3, which had a better radar, greater SA due to JTIDS, and all of a sudden the little world of flipping switches just to make the radar work got a whole lot bigger. Now the nav needed to maintain much broader SA and be more of a quarterback than a watchmaker. Not every 'toom nav made the transition.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 29, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

La reina es magnifica.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Nice. What did Spain send, besides sausages?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. What did Spain send, besides sausages?



Grenade launchers? Just a guess.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 29, 2022)

Haven't seen a list yet, but the sausages and the note from the Queen were included with the Grenade Launchers.

So we know that much.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Haven't seen a list yet, but the sausages and the note from the Queen were included with the Grenade Launchers.


What is a modern day grenade launcher? Is it a MANPATS? Or something like Mk 19 grenade launcher - Wikipedia.

I‘d love to see some ex-Spain CASA C-101 Aviojet in UAF colours.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What is a modern day grenade launcher? Is it a MANPATS? Or something like Mk 19 grenade launcher - Wikipedia.
> 
> I‘d love to see some ex-Spain CASA C-101 Aviojet in UAF colours.



Put the sausage in the tailpipe. Queen's orders.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _April 29 (Reuters) - Russia used a diesel submarine in the Black Sea to strike Ukrainian military targets with Kalibr cruise missiles, the first time Moscow has announced the use of its submarine fleet to hit its former Soviet neighbour.
> 
> The Russian defence ministry released a video showing a volley of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and soaring off into the horizon - to what the ministry said were Ukrainian military targets.
> 
> ...



To follow up on this. A poster on another forum and I were discussing this and digging into the details, the _Kilo_-class sub used in this attack is one of seven in the Black Fleet. With four missiles per sub, they have 24 more of these PGMs. Everything else (another 27 subs with anywhere from 10 to 50 missiles aboard) is outside the Black Sea and cannot enter during wartime under the Convention.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What is a modern day grenade launcher? Is it a MANPATS? Or something like Mk 19 grenade launcher - Wikipedia.
> 
> I‘d love to see some ex-Spain CASA C-101 Aviojet in UAF colours.


I still haven't seen a list of what was sent, other than Spain sent (via warship to Poland) 200 tons of weapons and equipment, loaded into several military vehicles and transports (which are also part of the shipment).


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## wlewisiii (Apr 29, 2022)

Looks like Putler is planning on doubling down on his mistake:

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2022)

I read that what Spain sent was pretty much all individual and crew served equipment, ie light AT weapons (~LAW), grenade launchers, small arms ammunition, protective gear, observation gear (ie night vision II and IR), etc.

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## B-17engineer (Apr 29, 2022)

Let him double down. He knows his army has been nothing short of an embarrassment.

Slava Ukraine! 

I’ll always love the video of an elderly woman telling Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets so flowers can grow where they die.

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2022)

ON the one had, I hope Putler does declare War on the Ukraine - as least if he does not plan to de-escalate soon. The options for the countries supporting Ukraine go up significantly by international law when a military acton becomes a War. International laws of war also require behavior that is not necessarily required under 'police actions' and 'Special Operations' by the parties involved in the War, ie Russia and Ukraine. The treaty that Turkey is operating under relative to the Black Sea also has different rules (I think) in event of a declared War.

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## Glider (Apr 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Looks like Putler is planning on doubling down on his mistake:



If ever there was an admission that his special operation wasn't going to plan, this is it.

I do hope that our leaders have military and political, have contingency plans to cover this eventuality

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## buffnut453 (Apr 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Looks like Putler is planning on doubling down on his mistake:




Hmmm...methinks the western nations need to tread carefully with this one. If war is officially declared, then it may change some of the legal aspects of arms shipments that we're providing. It may also limit our freedom of manoeuvre in the Black Sea. 

Then there's the whole issue of Putin's perception of countries that supply arms to his enemy when they're in a declared war. Russia defining the invasion as a "special operation" gave the west some wriggle-room and it also pushed Putin into a corner because he came to realise that the west was exploiting the very legal loophole that he'd created. I'm wondering if, by officially declaring war, Putin is seeking to take more active measures against arms shipments into Ukraine, for example before they even get into Ukraine itself. If that's what he's seeking to do, then escalation is inevitable.

I'm just shooting from the hip on this but there has to be some reason for Putin to suddenly declare war. I know we've all scoffed at the whole "special operation" thing...but there are some dark undertones to this development.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 29, 2022)

The international community by and large, has deemed Russia's invasion as an act of war.

Putler's intention to declare war is him trying to save face to the handful of people who still buy his bullshit.

As far as providing munitions and equipment to a belligerent during the time of a declared war, here is an excellent read on the existing laws and points regarding them, from West point Academy:



https://lieber.westpoint.edu/ukraine-neutrality-co-belligerency-use-of-force/

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2022)

If Putler declares War, or not?:

The International Criminal Court in The Hague defines war crimes as "grave breaches" of the post-World War Two Geneva Conventions, agreements which lay out the international humanitarian laws to be followed in war time. Breaches include deliberately targeting civilians and attacking legitimate military targets where civilian casualties would be "excessive," legal experts said.

The USSR ratified the Geneva Convention of 1954, which is still the main international agreement governing behavior in war.

However, in 2019 Putin revoked Russia's agreement relative to Additional Protocol 1 to the 1949 Geneva Convention, which was ratified by the Soviet Union's Supreme Council in 1989. This Additional Protocol 1 relates to the establishment of an international commission which would be set up in order to investigate war crimes against civilians. Putin explained his action in a letter to the Russian Parliament stating that the commission "has effectively failed to carry out its functions since 1991. . ." and "In the current international environment, the risks of the commission's power abuse by the states, which are acting in bad faith, are increasing significantly, . . ."

Russia is still signatory to the 4 Geneva Convention treaties and the other 3 Protocols.

NOTE: I changed the Roman numeral "I" in "Additional Protocol I" to the European numeral "1" for clarity.

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## at6 (Apr 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. What did Spain send, besides sausages?





Thumpalumpacus said:


> Grenade launchers? Just a guess.


At least they weren't Sausage makers.

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2022)

Good link GrauGeist.

Anyone interested in how the US sees the legal situation in the Ukraine should read it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Looks like Putler is planning on doubling down on his mistake:




lol, it's a bit late in the day for a declaration of war, innit? Who is this guy trying to spoof?

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## ThomasP (Apr 29, 2022)

To be fair, the US has not declared War since WWII.

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## fubar57 (Apr 30, 2022)

Doesn't the highlighted part sound vaguely familiar? From LIFE, 16 Mar. 1942

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## buffnut453 (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The international community by and large, has deemed Russia's invasion as an act of war.
> 
> Putler's intention to declare war is him trying to save face to the handful of people who still buy his bullshit.
> 
> ...



Great post and link, GrauGeist. Unfortunately, Herr Putin has already showed his disdain for the rule of law. I'm less concerned about how we view rules of neutrality because we should (stress SHOULD) have all our legal ducks in a row BEFORE we take any action, including providing arms to belligerents. I'm much more concerned about how the Russian legal system will interpret this. As we've seen, the judicial system in Moscow basically does whatever T4MF tells them to do (e.g. banning free press, locking up peaceful protesters for 15 years etc.). It's not inconceivable (other "Princess Bride" quotes ARE available...allegedly) that Russian legal interpretation may seek to enable more flexibility in how Russia responds to external actors involved in the conflict. It's a very dangerous game...hence my concerns.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

Well, wasn't it stated that the sinking of the Moskva (of course, after no one bought all their other excuses) an "act of war"?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Great post and link, GrauGeist. Unfortunately, Herr Putin has already showed his disdain for the rule of law. I'm less concerned about how we view rules of neutrality because we should (stress SHOULD) have all our legal ducks in a row BEFORE we take any action, including providing arms to belligerents. I'm much more concerned about how the Russian legal system will interpret this. As we've seen, the judicial system in Moscow basically does whatever T4MF tells them to do (e.g. banning free press, locking up peaceful protesters for 15 years etc.). It's not inconceivable (other "Princess Bride" quotes ARE available...allegedly) that Russian legal interpretation may seek to enable more flexibility in how Russia responds to external actors involved in the conflict. It's a very dangerous game...hence my concerns.


If I were Putin (well, that's a rabbit hole we don't want to visit) - ok, let me rephrase that:
The international legal system and the preponderance of evidence of Russia's actions take precedence over what Russia's legal system may interpret what's transpired.

At this point, there is nothing they can do or say that will hold water, no matter which way they spin it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> To be fair, the US has not declared War since WWII.



The point is that when you punch someone in the face, complaining about being struck back looks pretty lame.

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## at6 (Apr 30, 2022)

Isn't Duma Russian for Dumb a$$? As for the trollop threatening nuclear destruction, she's most likely upset because she can't find a Tampon anywhere in Moscow.

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## WARSPITER (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The international community by and large, has deemed Russia's invasion as an act of war.
> 
> Putler's intention to declare war is him trying to save face to the handful of people who still buy his bullshit.
> 
> ...



This is correct. Putin will want to make Ukraine the bad guy to Russians as he will say he was only there to 'save' Russian separatists 
but the vicious Ukrainians decided to go onto a war footing.

This of course will leave him no choice but to declare war on Ukraine to comply with "International" legal requirements.

We know the opposite is true and many Russians probably do too.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The point is that when you punch someone in the face, complaining about being struck back looks pretty lame.


That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.

That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
Got called into the Principle's office shortly after and given a three day detention.

Moral of the story: bullies are whiney bitches and I got a three day vacation for laying one out.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.
> 
> That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
> He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
> ...



One of my proudest moments as a dad was when our eldest was about 4 years old and still in preschool. There was another boy in his class that was an absolute shit. He would take things from people, punch, kick and otherwise hurt them, and generally make life hell for everyone. Naturally, he was bigger than all the other kids. One day, this little monster walks up to my son, puts his hand on my sons face and pushes him hard. No.1 son rocks backwards, sways back to square up to the bully, and then in his loudest voice yells "You shouldn't do that! Now say you're sorry!" The entire preschool, kids and adults (teachers and parents) stopped dead in their tracks to stare at the spectacle. The tiny tyrant suddenly felt the gaze of EVERYONE on him....and he slunk away. There was free ice cream for my eldest for many a week after that little fracas.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.
> 
> That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
> He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
> ...



I attended 8 schools in 12 years and was always the new kid, so yeah, bullying was a thing. Dad taught me to fight back and don't worry about clean. Even after getting my ass kicked, just the fact I fought back made me an uninviting target. _Slava Ukrania._

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## at6 (Apr 30, 2022)

In 5th grade a 6th grader was always bullying me. One after he pushed me down, I got back up and when he decided to do it again I jumped up, grabbed him behind the neck and proceeded bust his lip and bloody his nose with one punch. He ran to his teacher crying but got no satisfaction. His teacher and mine had seen what happened. His teacher laughingly ask mine to not let his kids beat up on 6th graders.

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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

Hey buffnut453,

The information in the link GrauGeist posted - on how the US sees this kind of situation - is important due to some of the items that explain:

1. why we are/are not doing certain things that many people have said we should do (such as establish a no-fly zone) which might result in a 'Hot War' as opposed to a 'Cold War'.
2. the fact that Putin is using many of the same rationalizations that are given in the linked article.

As to #2 above - regardless of what the US citizen likes to think, many of the worlds nations do not agree with the US in some of these areas, and condemn the actions of the US in many of our recent conflicts. (Since I am a US citizen I will only refer to the actions of the US. Citizens of other countries can relate their own nations's behavior if they wish.)

Most of the world sees our invasion of Iraq as unjust, our war on the Taliban as unjust, and the destruction of the infrastructure of Iraq and Afghanistan as unjust, and hence as war crimes. And that that does not include all the civilian deaths and suffering that resulted from our actions. But the US has so much influence over the UN's war crimes commission that nothing will ever be done about our actions.

If anyone objects to Russian misbehavior in Ukraine, all Putin has to do is point at the actions of the US over the last 60 odd years. And much of the world will agree that there is no justice in a system that is applied to one nation and not another that acts in the same or similar manner.

The only area that anyone can claim that Russia is acting significantly differently (for the most part) than the US (over the last 60 years) is in the direct targeting of Ukrainian civilian population centers and hence civilians - as a policy.

Moderators, I do not want to start a political discussion sh*tstorm so I hope this is not too political, if so please take it down.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 30, 2022)

Oh it's stupider than just doubling down...

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

If memory serves me right, Hitler did something similar.

That didn't go well...

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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

The British military believes Russian forces in Ukraine are likely suffering from "weakened morale."

The British Defense Ministry made that assessment in a tweet Saturday as part of a daily report it provides on Russia's war on Kyiv.

It says Russia "still faces considerable challenges" in fighting. The British military believes Russian forces have "been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units from the failed advances in northeast Ukraine."

"Shortcomings in Russian tactical coordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements," the military tweeted.

"Russia hopes to rectify issues that have previously constrained its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, shortening supply lines and simplifying command and control," it said.

The US view is supportive on the impact of the above

A senior U.S. defense official said Friday the Russian offensive is going much slower than planned in part because of the strength of the Ukrainian resistance.

"We also assess that because of this slow and uneven progress, again, without perfect knowledge of every aspect of the Russian plan, we do believe and assess that they are behind schedule in what they were trying to accomplish in the Donbas," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the U.S. military's assessment.

He said the U.S. believes the Russians are "at least several days behind where they wanted to be" as they try to encircle Ukrainian troops in the east.

As the troops try to move north out of Mariupol so they can advance on Ukrainian forces from the south, their progress has been "slow and uneven, and certainly not decisive in any, in any event," the official said.

Personal View

May 9th is a huge day for the Russian Military and a lot of people take the view that he was working towards an announcement of a significant victory on the 9th. Clearly things are not (and have never) gone to plan. His attack on the capital failed, the attempt to destroy or overcome the government failed, the new assault on the areas he wants to claim is running well behind schedule. Russian losses are mounting and nothing destroys the morale of an army more than , failing to achieve your goals, constantly changing objectives whilst taking very significant losses and having a leadership that doesn't care about the losses and you know is lying to you, your loved ones and the loved ones of the friends you have lost.

Russian seems to have lost north of 15,000 dead and its safe to assume that at least another 30-45,000 would have been wounded and he started with approx 175,000 troops. That is a loss ratio of approx 30% which is huge. Stalingrad would have had this scale of losses

Putin is in trouble deep and knows it

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hmmm...methinks the western nations need to tread carefully with this one. If war is officially declared, then it may change some of the legal aspects of arms shipments that we're providing. It may also limit our freedom of manoeuvre in the Black Sea.
> 
> Then there's the whole issue of Putin's perception of countries that supply arms to his enemy when they're in a declared war. Russia defining the invasion as a "special operation" gave the west some wriggle-room and it also pushed Putin into a corner because he came to realise that the west was exploiting the very legal loophole that he'd created. I'm wondering if, by officially declaring war, Putin is seeking to take more active measures against arms shipments into Ukraine, for example before they even get into Ukraine itself. If that's what he's seeking to do, then escalation is inevitable.
> 
> I'm just shooting from the hip on this but there has to be some reason for Putin to suddenly declare war. I know we've all scoffed at the whole "special operation" thing...but there are some dark undertones to this development.


From my understanding the Czar hasn't made use of the Russian army yet, besides Missile, some heavy artillery and Air-force usage. The "special operation" has been conducted vastly by Ukrainian/Russian irregulars - supported in a low numbers (20 -30,000) by members of the Russian army.
Not saying the Russian army will be much better - but certainly not worse then these irregular units. Furthermore declaring war might garner him sympathy in Russia and as you already indicated gives him more room towards international laws. Which as usual always come to light if they offer a benefit, even to the culprit. Additionally he can now legally raise manpower needed for a prolonged Ukraine war, with which he can run the Ukrainian economy, it's army's manpower and equipment into total attrition.
A declaration of war also allows him to make use of "internationally despised" (not forbidden) weapons, aside from ABC - just one of those dropped/fired onto the Azov Steel-plant and that pocket of resistance is literally a vacuum.
Also to my understanding (unless the Czar breaks his neck whilst falling down a staircase) he isn't going to give in towards NATO. - no matter the costs. Since this war has become then a
war of opposing political systems and their respective survival. So even a draw is acceptable to him in that regard.


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

The regular Russian Army had somewhere around 180,000 troops involved in the invasion. With the redeployment of forces to the East at least 1 fresh Russian Motorized Rifle Division (3 Mechanized Infantry regiments + 1 Tank regiment + 1(2?) Artillery regiment + 1 AA regiment + other battalion sized supporting units) with ~15,000 troops (possibly more) was brought in. While there are a significant number of Ukrainian citizens involved in the fighting on the Russian side, nearly all are in the Donetsk/Luhansk/Donbas regions.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The only area that anyone can claim that Russia is acting significantly differently (for the most part) than the US (over the last 60 years) is in the direct targeting of Ukrainian civilian population centers and hence civilians - as a policy.


You mean the deliberate "dehousing" of German and Japanese defense workers by firestorm wasn't "a policy"? Maybe we should look back 80 years? I'm sure the rest of the world is.

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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

I did say "over the las 60 years". 

If we go back 80 years to 1943 WWII, the "terror bombing" er "morale reduction" er "dehousing" campaign was a war crime by today's standard, regardless of whether the country doing the bombing is a signatory (the US was not) to the Geneva Convention article that covers such things.

If we go back 72 years to Korea, again by today's standard the US committed war crimes when they bombed every village, town, and city that they could see from 20,000+ ft. The vast majority of the North Korean people in those population centers were agrarian or small town type shopkeepers and had no say in and nothing to do with the war.

Also see: "What does Japan do if War against USA/UK/DEI postponed to Spring 1942?"

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Then there's the whole issue of Putin's perception of countries that supply arms to his enemy when they're in a declared war. I'm wondering if, by officially declaring war, Putin is seeking to take more active measures against arms shipments into Ukraine, for example before they even get into Ukraine itself.


Reminds me of Hitler declaring war against the US because they were supplying Britain. That worked out well.

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## Admiral Beez (Apr 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You mean the deliberate "dehousing" of German and Japanese defense workers by firestorm wasn't "a policy"? Maybe we should look back 80 years? I'm sure the rest of the world is.


If you go back far enough every country has done bad stuff. Trick is we’ve for the most part the West understands what we did was wrong or unnecessary.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Reminds me of Hitler declaring war against the US because they were supplying Britain. That worked out well.


Bringing in Hitler IMO doesn't serve the purpose - since (Thank God) he did not posses nukes. Even if the USA would have had them at the same time - nutty/desperate Adolf would have used them against USA based targets, just to see if the USA (and especially it's government electors) would still be willing to support his enemies war-efforts.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The regular Russian Army had somewhere around 180,000 troops involved in the invasion.


Certainly not - more then 150,000 are Ukrainian/Russian irregulars that have been trained and equipped by Russia in the last 4-6 years. and these people are still being recruited and
even "forced" into the if you prefer the "Donbass/Donetsk volunteer territorial forces". This is also the reason why the Czar doesn't pay much attention to (Russian army committed war-crimes).
But since about 1 week he is bringing in stronger elements of the actual Russian army. To support approx. 30,000 Russian troops within Ukraine and another 50,000 assembling presently
to move into the Ukraine. The total Russian backup force is around 140,000 independed of those 150,000-200,000 irregulars operating within Russian controlled Ukraine territory and attacking Ukraine held positions.


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Certainly not - more then 150,000 are Ukrainian/Russian irregulars that have been trained and equipped by Russia in the last 4-6 years. and these people are still being recruited and
> even "forced" into the if you prefer the "Donbass/Donetsk volunteer territorial forces". This is also the reason why the Czar doesn't pay much attention to (Russian army committed war-crimes).
> But since about 1 week he is bringing in stronger elements of the actual Russian army. To support approx. 30,000 Russian troops within Ukraine and another 50,000 assembling presently
> to move into the Ukraine. The total Russian backup force is around 140,000 independed of those 150,000-200,000 irregulars operating within Russian controlled Ukraine territory and attacking Ukraine held positions.


Source please.


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

As Snautzer01 says, source please?

US and UK intel has no indication of your assertion. Nor does the UAF. If you have any evidence of what you say, please send it to the US and UK intelligence agencies, and the the Ukrainians as well. I am sure thy would like to know that the majority of the soldiers they have been taking prisoner (in areas other than the Donetsk/Donbas/Luhansk regions) are really conscripted Ukrainians.

However, there is a report that Russia intends to begin conscripting Ukrainians from the newly occupied areas, and has done so in the past few years in Donetsk/Donbas/Luhansk. Is that what you are referring to? If so, those Ukrainians conscripted have been deployed in the occupied areas. 

Also, are you confusing the term conscript with irregular?


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Source please.


Common knowledge within NATO, or feel free to check the internet in timeline since 2014 for hopefully reliable information;
e.g. article from *2015!! *"The joint army of the DNR and the LNR will be 100,000 men strong,"


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> As Snautzer01 says, source please?
> 
> US and UK intel has no indication of your assertion. Nor does the UAF. If you have any evidence of what you say, please send it to the US and UK intelligence agencies, and the the Ukrainians as well. I am sure thy would like to know that the majority of the soldiers they have been taking prisoner (in areas other than the Donetsk/Donbas/Luhansk regions) are really conscripted Ukrainians.
> 
> ...


Did the US, UK intel and UAF call on your expertise? or you just believe to know, because of what the media tells you?


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

Is this the article you are referring to?

"Ukraine rebels plan call-up, want 100,000-strong army"

And it seems to me that if it is common knowledge in NATO, and the US and UK are part of NATO, then it is very strange that they do not know that the majority of the troops invading Ukraine beginning in February are Ukrainian.

And it is very strange that Russia is not broadcasting to the world that the troops invading Ukraine (from inside Russia and Belarus) beginning in February are Ukrainians. That would be propaganda gold.

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Is this the article you are referring to?
> 
> "Ukraine rebels plan call-up, want 100,000-strong army"


Can't open the link - one of those multiple information sources is from the English written newspaper The Moscow Times and such reports and alike are counter-checked and updated e.g. since 2014 by all military/intelligence related institutions, military attache departments or defense contractor/military advisory and security organizations - like the one I am working for since 2000.
Therefore I wouldn't post anything in that matter which isn't common/public knowledge within these circles.


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

And no, I do not just believe what the media tells me. India is not reporting that the invading force was composed mostly of Ukrainian conscripts. Nor are Israel, Germany, Norway, or France. Also maybe ask J_P_C and Dimlee.


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

The link is to Reuters website. The article was written and reported by Reuters staff from their Moscow office in February 2015.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> View attachment 666326
> And no, I do not just believe what the media tells me. India is not reporting that the invading force was composed mostly of Ukrainian conscripts. Nor are Israel, Germany, Norway, or France. Also maybe ask J_P_C and Dimlee.


Why do you think Putin has declared this as a "special operation" and not as an official Russian war deceleration onto the Ukraine? 
Furthermore why should Putin declare or explain the composition of the Russian and pro-Russian forces to the media?
Maybe NATO is fully aware about this and therefore is highly interested to get the Russian government/army fully committed towards the Ukraine and as such in return achieving........, ...,maybe?


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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

?

None of what you just posted makes any sense.

Maybe NATO is aware and has joined together in a vast conspiracy (30 countries after all) to keep the knowledge from everyone, including their own governments to the point where it has not leaked - after almost 3 months? And talked countries like India and Israel into joining the conspiracy?

Maybe Putin is a space alien?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2022)

Some of this stuff is comedy gold.

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## wlewisiii (Apr 30, 2022)

Long thread, good info. There's a good video down thread of some Ukrainian artillery.

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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Why do you think Putin has declared this as a "special operation" and not as an official Russian war deceleration onto the Ukraine?
> Furthermore why should Putin declare or explain the composition of the Russian and pro-Russian forces to the media?
> Maybe NATO is fully aware about this and therefore is highly interested to get the Russian government/army fully committed towards the Ukraine and as such in return achieving........, ...,maybe?


I know that it's Wiki but it goes into considerable detail about the actual units that formed the order of Battle for the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the chain of command

There are a lot of Guards units and air units which are elite units in the Russian military. Nowhere, and I mean nowhere, does it mention any Ukraine based units.

Now if you have a better source that supports your bland statements about the forces that occupied the Ukraine only having a minority of Russian units I am confident that we will all be grateful and would appreciate your information.

Order of battle for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

In other words, it's time to put up or shut up


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> ?
> 
> None of what you just posted makes any sense.
> 
> ...


Whatever you want to believe - fine with me


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Whatever you want to believe - fine with me




Your underestimate of Russian troop strengths is surprising. What news sources are reporting this? Can you link to them?

ETA: Never mind, I see that you've already refused to support your assertion, in which case I refer you to Hitchens's Razor.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Your underestimate of Russian troop strengths is surprising. What news sources are reporting this? Can you link to them?


One needs to separate two different occurrences.
1. the initial attack onto the Ukraine - supported by around 130,000 Russian troops of which around 60,000 actually went into Ukrainian territory (mostly Kiev area 35-40,000) and a further 15 -20,000 in the Donbass/Mariupol area.
2. The stage 2 from March onward is conducted in vast majority by the DNR and the LNR troops (counting up to 250,000) troops, equipped initially with approx. 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's. and supported by around 25-35,000 Russian troops.
In the meantime (since mid April) Russia has assembled approx. 100,000 troops - where likely 60% are focused on coming action towards Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

The question you might answer for yourself is where are, and what are the 150-200,000 DNR and LNR troops doing? and the other remaining 50-100,000? 
As I said and please don't get me wrong - if you prefer or have reasons to believe that 250,000 Russian troops are presently engaging the Ukrainian forces and 250,000 DNR/INR troops 
are patrolling the streets in the occupied territory - fine with me. 

BTW, how strong do you judge the Ukrainian forces to be, that momentarily are holding the 1000km+ stretching front lines? from Kharkiv down to Vuhledar and over to Mykolaiv?


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## Snautzer01 (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Common knowledge within NATO, or feel free to check the internet in timeline since 2014 for hopefully reliable information;
> e.g. article from *2015!! *"The joint army of the DNR and the LNR will be 100,000 men strong,"


Bit of a poor show refering to somewhere on the internet an article (!) . It gives no weight at all to your statement i think as does refering to an article from 2015 to the situation today.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Bit of a poor show refering to somewhere on the internet an article (!) . It gives no weight at all to your statement i think as does refering to an article from 2015 to the situation today.


Why don't you simply check for yourself as to the actual strength of the DNR and LNR in 2021?
Taking into account Putins plans for the Ukraine since 2014 and the fact that an article (amongst numerous articles and sources) already indicates a 100,000 men compassing army
what do you think this Army to be or actually was in 2022? and it's equipment?

_e.g. : By 6 March, the Luhansk separatists (LNR) claimed to have "liberated" more than 100 towns and villages, The "DNR" claimed 67 occupied towns and villages, 36 on March 6 and another 31 March 7.
While there was little information available to corroborate whether these early advances were made by separatist armed formations with, or without any significant Russian reinforcements, their limited scale and pace clearly point to the latter. A photo (unverified) apparently showing "LNR" documents of soldiers captured by Ukrainian troops on 7th of March in the Luhansk region might also support this.
e.g. : originating from a confidential report on February 11th 2022 regarding Draft-notices for the LDNR: - That's what they're doing right now — they're delivering the draft notices to apartments and homes. I don't know the exact number of the notices, but I think we are talking about 50,000-60,000 people._


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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> One needs to separate two different occurrences.
> 1. the initial attack onto the Ukraine - supported by around 130,000 Russian troops of which around 60,000 actually went into Ukrainian territory (mostly Kiev area 35-40,000) and a further 15 -20,000 in the Donbass/Mariupol area.
> 2. The stage 2 from March onward is conducted in vast majority by the DNR and the LNR troops (counting up to 250,000) troops, equipped initially with approx. 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's. and supported by around 25-35,000 Russian troops.
> In the meantime (since mid April) Russia has assembled approx. 100,000 troops - where likely 60% are focused on coming action towards Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.
> ...


Jad
These are just more bland statements. What everyone is after is some explanation as to how you arrived at these numbers.

Nowhere can I find anything that says that DNR or LNR troops are being involved in any numbers.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Why don't you simply check for yourself as to the actual strength of the DNR and LNR in 2021?
> Taking into account Putins plans for the Ukraine since 2014 and the fact that an article (amongst numerous articles and sources) already indicates a 100,000 men compassing army
> what do you think this Army to be or actually was in 2022? and it's equipment?



Normally when someone makes a claim in a discussion (you in this case), the onus is on them to support the claim with facts and provide sources.

Deflecting as you are only reduces the persons credibility.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> As I said and please don't get me wrong - if you prefer or have reasons to believe that 250,000 Russian troops are presently engaging the Ukrainian forces and 250,000 DNR/INR troops
> are patrolling the streets in the occupied territory - fine with me.



Neither I nor anyone else here has made this claim, which renders this a strawman and unworthy of further consideration.


Jagdflieger said:


> BTW, how strong do you judge the Ukrainian forces to be, that momentarily are holding the 1000km+ stretching front lines? from Kharkiv down to Vuhledar and over to Mykolaiv?



I don't know. I know they have the advantage of interior lines and resupply from the west.


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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't know. I know they have the advantage of interior lines and resupply from the west.


Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.


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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.


Re '_who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side_' 

This is my starter for ten as we say in the UK.






Order of battle for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Now where is your supporting evidence?

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.


Are *you* stationed n the Ukraine (or Russia, for that matter) and providing accurate eyes-on information, or merely tossing out numbers you *think* that's correct?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay such a simple issue you wouldn't know - (because it is a secret?) but who is supposedly stationed in Ukraine and fighting on the Russian side you believe to know - according to NATO and the western media sources-right? Well ain't that funny. - just saying.



The media I've read over the last few months has mentioned Russian troop strengths but not Ukrainian troop strengths. I have this annoying habit of sticking to facts that I can support unless I'm opining -- and in that case I clearly label it.

You should give it a try one day. It's a good system that works for me.



Spoiler



Putin ordered a military operation in Ukraine early Thursday morning Moscow time, capping off weeks of speculation that Russia may be planning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia in recent weeks has amassed up to 190,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, heightening tensions in the region.









Live coverage: Ukrainian death toll surpasses 130 in attack’s first day


Russian President Vladimir Putin early on Thursday announced a military operation in Ukraine, leading to international condemnation of what world leaders called the start of a Russian invasion.Puti…




thehill.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

_KYIV, April 30 (Reuters) - Russian forces pounded Ukraine's eastern Donbas region on Saturday but failed to capture three target areas, Ukraine's military said, while Moscow said Western sanctions on Russia and arms shipments to Ukraine were impeding peace negotiations.

The Russians were trying to capture the areas of Lyman in Donetsk and Sievierodonetsk and Popasna in Luhansk, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in a daily update. "Not succeeding - the fighting continues," it said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in remarks published early on Saturday, said lifting Western sanctions on Russia was part of the peace talks, which he said were difficult but continued daily by video link. read more

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has insisted since the Russian invasion began on Feb. 24 that sanctions needed to be strengthened and could not be part of negotiations. He said on Friday there was a high risk the talks would end because of what he called Russia's "playbook on murdering people".

Ukraine accuses Russian troops of atrocities in areas near the capital, Kyiv, that they previously occupied. Moscow denies the claims.

Lavrov said that if the United States and other NATO countries were truly interested in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, they should stop sending weapons to Kyiv. read more_










Pelosi pledges U.S. support on visit to Ukraine; civilians evacuated from Mariupol


Around 100 Ukrainian civilians were evacuated from the ruined Azovstal steelworks in the city of Mariupol on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, after the United Nations confirmed a "safe passage operation" was in progress there.




www.reuters.com





"Give us what we want and we'll continue to negotiate"? My counteroffer would be to supply the sand I'll suggest he hammer up his ass.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

My suggestion to Lavrov, would be to stop attacking the Ukraine, withdraw all military forces to the internationally recognized borders and the fighting would stop.

The whining about "we can't have peace if you keep helping our victim defend themselves" is laughable at best.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

Houses in the town of Irpin, north of Kyiv:















Ukrainians plead for Mariupol rescue; Russian advance crawls


KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces fought village by village Saturday to hold back a Russian advance through the country’s east, while the United Nations worked to broker a civilian evacuation from the last Ukrainian stronghold in the bombed-out ruins of the port city of Mariupol.




apnews.com

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## Jagdflieger (Apr 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The media I've read over the last few months has mentioned Russian troop strengths but not Ukrainian troop strengths. I have this annoying habit of sticking to facts that I can support unless I'm opining -- and in that case I clearly label it.
> 
> You should give it a try one day. It's a good system that works for me.


Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
information that is withheld by NATO. "great"

So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree
1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.
2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.
3. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's
You and others got no alternative information to this and are asking me to bring in proof - if live would only be so easy.
But please feel free to state as to how many LNDR units are presently engaged in combat (or since end of March)
4. I am stating that presently less then 50,000 Russian troops are engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces. (with presently 100,000 being assembled to go into action)
You and others seem to believe that 200,000 Russian troops are fighting already against the Ukrainian forces since February and at present - please forward proof
You and others seem to believe that the LNDR forces are basically just rag-tags with small arms patrolling the streets in occupied territory - please forward proof

Below is the official chart issued by the Ukrainian MoD as of today in regards to Russian total losses. Off course openly spread by NATO and the media.

So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men? and taking no separate stats of the LNDR forces and their equipment into account? As I said I let people believe whatever they want to believe - but I don't appreciate comments of mine to be downgraded to nonsense, just because they don't fit into someones mindset that thrives entirely on a one-sided source of information. - that's all.

A simple: sorry I don't agree with your assessment - should suffice, no?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
> Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
> information that is withheld by NATO. "great"



Right. We all are reliant on media sources. You are no different than anyone in that regard. Yet when asked to provide your sources you refuse to, and instead turn to attacking others for... relying on the media for information.

Of course I cannot know what I don't know. Peddling tautologies is not a good way to strengthen your point.



Jagdflieger said:


> So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree
> 1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.
> 2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
> The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.
> ...



Link to your source so that I may read this for myself.

Until that happens I'm moving onto to more remunerative discussion.

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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay so the only "facts' you posses are due to information you draw from the media which in turn gets it's information from NATO.
> Meaning any information that NATO is not forwarding is unknown to you and others here on the Forum. And I am being asked to forward proof for my assertions which beholds
> information that is withheld by NATO. "great"
> 
> So let's get some basics in this issue straight - if you agree


This should be good


Jagdflieger said:


> 1. I am referring to present (or since end of March) conducted operations against Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces.


I have heard of them operating in areas that have already been cleared or surrounded by Russian forces, but not in the front line


Jagdflieger said:


> 2. I am stating that the 1st and 2nd AKs of the LNDR forces have been subordinated to the 8th Army of the RF Armed Forces,
> The latter was confirmed by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces already on March 2nd.


Which is not the same as operating in the front line


Jagdflieger said:


> 3. I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's


Stating yes, you do that a lot, but without any supporting evidence


Jagdflieger said:


> 4. I am stating that presently less then 50,000 Russian troops are engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces. (with presently 100,000 being assembled to go into action)
> You and others seem to believe that 200,000 Russian troops are fighting already against the Ukrainian forces since February and at present - please forward proof
> You and others seem to believe that the LNDR forces are basically just rag-tags with small arms patrolling the streets in occupied territory - please forward proof


I do believe that between 150,000 and 200,000 Russian soldiers are operating in the Ukraine
My proof (which you seem to be studiously ignoring) is the order of battle which I post again. Any comments you have on this would be appreciated.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_battle_for_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrain




Jagdflieger said:


> Below is the official chart issued by the Ukrainian MoD as of today in regards to Russian total losses. Off course openly spread by NATO and the media.


Wrong again. The last number I saw from the British MOD said that approx 15,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, at the time the Ukraine sources were saying approx 21,000. I am going with the UK and Nato numbers, not the Ukraine numbers 


Jagdflieger said:


> So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men? and taking no separate stats of the LNDR forces and their equipment into account? As I said I let people believe whatever they want to believe - but I don't appreciate comments of mine to be downgraded to nonsense, just because they don't fit into someones mindset that thrives entirely on a one-sided source of information. - that's all.


You presumably cannot disagree with the statement *that Russia and its allies* had lost these amounts of men and material.


Jagdflieger said:


> A simple: sorry I don't agree with your assessment - should suffice, no?


No because you produce nothing to support your statements and ignore what others produce

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> . I am stating that the LNDR strength in February stood at 200-250,000 men - armed with around 1600 tanks and 3500 AFV's
> You and others got no alternative information to this and are asking me to bring in proof - if live would only be so easy.
> But please feel free to state as to how many LNDR units are presently engaged in combat (or since end of March)


I have to ask, where are you getting these numbers from, regarding Luhansk and Donesk manpower numbers.
The estimated civilian population of these to provinces are about 3 million. How are they able to muster a quarter million troops out of such a population?

And accordung to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (oh look, an official source!), Russia committed 2,700 tanks to the "special operation" - so how is it that these two provincial "armies" have more than half the number of tanks than Russia does?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2022)

Agent 00Jagdflieger, in her Majesty’s service.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 30, 2022)

I know this is Wikipedia but it puts the strength of separatist forces in Donbas at about 44,000 as of last year. 









Russian people's militias in Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





It's also interesting that right-wing nationalism (the Russian variant, not the Nazi variant) seems to play a key role within the separatist units. That's not a surprise but it provides yet more evidence of the nonsense that is Moscow's justification for this "special operation-soon-to-be-war."

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

I hope we're sending more tractors to supply the 3rd Ukraine Farm Tractor battalion - that should offset anything that Russia does to boost their AFV numbers...

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## GTX (Apr 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. What did Spain send, besides sausages?



1,370 Instalaza C-90 anti-tank grenade launchers, an unspecified number of light machine guns and 700,000 bullets
1 RG-31 Nyala mine-resistant vehicle configured as an ambulance









España envía una ambulancia blindada y más armamento a Ucrania


El coste del material militar donado por Defensa a Kiev ronda ya los 48 millones




elpais.com

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## GTX (Apr 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> If ever there was an admission that his special operation wasn't going to plan, this is it.


Agreed - I suspect this declaration is more to free up resources to throw into the battle.

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## buffnut453 (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I hope we're sending more tractors to supply the 3rd Ukraine Farm Tractor battalion - that should offset anything that Russia does to boost their AFV numbers...



BREAKING NEWS: Putin has reached out to Biden in an attempt to reduce hostilities. He's actually proposing realistic, achievable reductions in strategic weapons that threaten Russia's hegemony. The proposed treaty, known as START, stands for Strategic Attempt to Reduce Tractors.

Sorry...couldn't resist.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> 1,370 Instalaza C-90 anti-tank grenade launchers, an unspecified number of light machine guns and 700,000 bullets
> 1 RG-31 Nyala mine-resistant vehicle configured as an ambulance
> 
> 
> ...


...and a love letter from the Queen.

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## Jabberwocky (Apr 30, 2022)

According to open source intelligence efforts, there are 76 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups operating in the Donbas area and another 15 north of Crimea. For 91 BTGs actively engaged in combat as of the last week (roughly).

At least 130 different Russian BTGs have been positively identified as active in combat since the start of the war. That's a minimum figure. 

BTGs are tip of the spear combat units. Typical strength is 600 to 800 troops, with 8-12 tanks, 40 to 50 APCs/IFVs, 6 to 12 mobile artillery pieces and some SHORAD assets.

For each BTG in combat you can figure that there is at least one other solider in theatre, acting as support or logistics. BTGs don't act in isolation and they don't include things like heavy artillery, aviation assets, long range air defence, or logistics elements.

130 BTGs would be 78,000 to 104,000 troops. Double that and you're looking at 155,000 to 200,000 Russian troops who have been engaged in fighting or directly supporting the war in Ukraine.

That's a MINIMUM figure. Roll in special forces, air and navy assets and that number climbs substantially higher.

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## GTX (Apr 30, 2022)



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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Common knowledge within NATO, or feel free to check the internet in timeline since 2014 for hopefully reliable information





Jagdflieger said:


> one of those multiple information sources is from the English written newspaper The Moscow Times and such reports and alike are counter-checked and updated e.g. since 2014 by all military/intelligence related institutions, military attache departments or defense contractor/military advisory and security organizations - *like the one I am working for since 2000.*
> Therefore I wouldn't post anything in that matter which isn't common/public knowledge within these circles.


Despite your disclaimer in the last paragraph above, you seem to be claiming access to privileged information you're not authorized to dislose, hence can't supply links for us to independently verify.
"Don't ask me how I know, can't disclose my sources, for their safety, but trust me, I KNOW!"
Sounds like James Bond to me.
And you expect to be taken seriously?

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## ThomasP (Apr 30, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

re "So after 65 day's of fighting, only the RUSSIAN Armed forces lost all this? whilst having supposedly involved 200,000 men?"

What are you trying to say with the above questions? Is there some reason you think the KIA rate is too excessively high to apply to Russian troops?

Modern warfare, when fought with modern front line combat equipment can be exceedingly deadly.

Although the tactical and grand tactical situation was significantly different, during Operation Desert Storm/Gulf War 1 the Iraqi armed forces suffered ~10,000 dead during the ~3 days the ground war lasted. This number was derived from post-war intelligence debriefs of Iraqi POWs, official post-war releases concerning war dead by the Iraq government, and from the international aid community. Most of the fighting occurred in relatively open environments. (Another ~12,000 were killed during the 39 day air campaign leading up to the ground war.)

In comparison, if the intel estimates from NATO of ~15,000 minimum Russian soldiers KIA are correct, the kill rate has been only ~1/15th of the kill rate during Operation Desert Storm. Most of the fighting (not counting the drone war?) has been occurring in urban environments.

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## Snautzer01 (Apr 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Why don't you simply check for yourself as to the actual strength of the DNR and LNR in 2021?
> Taking into account Putins plans for the Ukraine since 2014 and the fact that an article (amongst numerous articles and sources) already indicates a 100,000 men compassing army
> what do you think this Army to be or actually was in 2022? and it's equipment?
> 
> ...


I think it is healthy to take a different view. You do and that is a good thing. However Russia is not the soviet union, even if a guy thinks he still can fill Uncle Joe shoes. That much is very clear.
The weapons fielded are not enough, planning is even shorter then that of Adolf. Supplies are long away and costly to get to the front. And that if ! available.
Cant take a big city, yes murder or rape some to terrorize as they did in well, every where to went too. ( they are not the only ones with this strategy i know )
Can take a bit of dirt but shaky on keeping it.

The other side did get get some heavy stuff after all and a lot of very mobile manpads and (i presume, i agree) a very nice dose of info on where and how many enemy agents are where in real time. And are getting better suited weapons although not the latest in ever more faster pase. This war isnt about how many one can produce to overwhelm the other. There is no time to do that. It isnt ww2 Ost front. Its a fight at best for Russia a stalemate_,_ a powerplay that went over the intended goal. Should have been a blitzkrieg covering a piece of real estate, put your guys in control over the rest and Bob is your Uncle. Did it before ( forgetting Afghanistan as everybody should)
Why didt Putin play Risk? Cant hold the whole of the continent not even for 7 tokens.

That does not take away the force Russia can field, it just shows how it can do in an offensive war AND keeping its hinterland.

It cant.

Again it is not the soviet union nor does it has for a few years unlimited forces

So i hope you do better next time in claiming stuff. I do mean i like a different view but in a hot war, you state sources if you state some thing as the truth.
Not some article written almost nobody knows.

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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Despite your disclaimer in the last paragraph above, you seem to be claiming access to privileged information you're not authorized to dislose, hence can't supply links for us to independently verify.
> "Don't ask me how I know, can't disclose my sources, for their safety, but trust me, I KNOW!"
> Sounds like James Bond to me.
> And you expect to be taken seriously?


Sort of sounds like one of those "authorities" on Geo-engineering/Chemtrails, who got their inside information from a (former)Government official who has to remain anonymous in order to protect self/family...

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## wlewisiii (Apr 30, 2022)

An add on to my earlier post. Scratch one flag officer.

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## fubar57 (Apr 30, 2022)

I’m not an expert in this conflict but I did stay at a Holiday Inn……..

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## FLYBOYJ (Apr 30, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> I’m not an expert in this conflict but I did stay at a Holiday Inn……..


And you're not a pilot but you have read the pilot manuals

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## fubar57 (Apr 30, 2022)

…..I do know my groundhogs though

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Despite your disclaimer in the last paragraph above, you seem to be claiming access to privileged information you're not authorized to dislose, hence can't supply links for us to independently verify.
> "Don't ask me how I know, can't disclose my sources, for their safety, but trust me, I KNOW!"
> Sounds like James Bond to me.
> And you expect to be taken seriously?



He could tell you, but then he would have to kill you.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Apr 30, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And you're not a pilot but you have read the pilot manuals



And stayed at a Holiday Inn Express?

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## Glider (Apr 30, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And you're not a pilot but you have read the pilot manuals


And flown the flight sim

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## SaparotRob (Apr 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He could tell you, but then he would have to kill you.


Okay, but it better be good!

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## pgeno71 (Apr 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Maybe Putin is a space alien?


Aha, I knew there was something fishy about that guy.

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## XBe02Drvr (Apr 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He could tell you, but then he would have to kill you.


Shakin in my shoes!


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And stayed at a Holiday Inn Express?


...where the staff are all on B scale?


pgeno71 said:


> Aha, I knew there was something fishy about that guy.


...like, who he'll be sleeping with?

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## wlewisiii (Apr 30, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Apr 30, 2022)

Slava Ukraini !
Slava Kotki !

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## at6 (Apr 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I know this is Wikipedia but it puts the strength of separatist forces in Donbas at about 44,000 as of last year.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hell! Add stars to the Seperatist flag and you get a Confederate flag. What's next? A Nazi flag?

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## at6 (Apr 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Sort of sounds like one of those "authorities" on Geo-engineering/Chemtrails, who got their inside information from a (former)Government official who has to remain anonymous in order to protect self/family...


Are you telling me that Chemtrails aren't real?

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## Greg Boeser (Apr 30, 2022)

I heard it on Art Bell!
Disinformation!!!!!

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

at6 said:


> Are you telling me that Chemtrails aren't real?


They're real alright, hydrocarbons are chemicals.

lmao @ Art Bell - that clown is onenof the reasons that chemtrails are a thing. He was pushing some sort of snake oil in the 90's that helped ward off the effects of "spraying". Oddly enough, "chemtrails" literally didn't exist as a "thing" before his coast-to-coast a.m. show.

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> An add on to my earlier post. Scratch one flag officer.



Nice work Ukraine.









Tenth Russian General Reportedly Killed in Ukraine - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice


Ukrainian authorities say that Russian Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov was killed near the city of Izyum of the… - May. 01, 2022. By Kyiv Post




www.kyivpost.com

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## MiTasol (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Sort of sounds like one of those "authorities" on Geo-engineering/Chemtrails, who got their inside information from a (former)Government official who has to remain anonymous in order to protect self/family...


or a Nigerian scam artist using a variation on the "I am a banker/politician/lawyer (or other crook) that needs you to open a bank account for me and if you do I will pay you millions"

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## fubar57 (May 1, 2022)

.....still waiting for my millions. Any day now

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> or a Nigerian scam artist using a variation on the "I am a banker/politician/lawyer (or other crook) that needs you to open a bank account for me and if you do I will pay you millions"


I used to work late back in the 90's (before the interwebs took off) and listened to his show for entertainment value.

I have to say, it was always interesting. Especially the people who called in.

Also consider, that back then, there were many people who fell for anything, but they didn't have the interwebs to enable their...uh...convictions?

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## MiTasol (May 1, 2022)

Random thoughts

Some people are suggesting that there are thousands of Ukrainians in the invading forces and quote ancient history (2015 etc) to support this.

Others point out, quite accurately, that if a Russian Army unit that was made up of Ukrainians seized a town Putin would be broadcasting this very loudly as a great propaganda feat.

When Putin's nominated President of the Ukraine was captured he was alone. Being such an important asset surely he would have had a large protection detail consisting exclusively of highly trained Ukrainian "heroes of the liberation".

Makes me wonder if the Ukrainians in the "liberating forces" and who were his security detail changed sides when they found that Putin's orders were to kill as many civilians as possible, including many of the "liberators" friends and relatives, and to destroy as many farms, businesses and as much accommodation as possible so that many/most Ukrainians will have no food, no jobs and nowhere to live, after the liberation.

I wonder how many of the Russian "accidents" and deaths by the soviet version of "natural causes" happened when some of these people changed sides.

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## MiTasol (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Also consider, that back then, there were many people who fell for anything, but they didn't have the interwebs to enable their...uh...convictions?



Yep. The web is like the bible (and probably all the other religions equivalent documents) - you can always find something to support your position - no matter how totally moronic it is.

If anything I would say there are more losers now than _back then._

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I think it is healthy to take a different view. You do and that is a good thing. However Russia is not the soviet union, even if a guy thinks he still can fill Uncle Joe shoes. That much is very clear.
> The weapons fielded are not enough, planning is even shorter then that of Adolf. Supplies are long away and costly to get to the front. And that if ! available.
> Cant take a big city, yes murder or rape some to terrorize as they did in well, every where to went too. ( they are not the only ones with this strategy i know )
> Can take a bit of dirt but shaky on keeping it.
> ...


As I mentioned I am separating two issues - The initial attack in February, and the war that has been going on since end of March.
The issue I was referring to is the one since end of March. so some Wiki unit summarizing article regarding the war in February is of no interest to me.

I am and was also referring to units in combat with the Ukrainian armed forces - not to logistic or reserve units being held back or operating behind the front line.
If e.g. 130 Russian BTG's = 100,000 men would be in combat since end of March - or the other reported 94 BGT's = (75,000men) then automatically at least to me, the question arises how many of these BTG's are actually composed of units from the 1st and 2nd LDNR Army corps (integrated into the 8th Russian army) since 2nd March
._ e.g. : originating from a confidential report on February 11th 2022 regarding Draft-notices for the LDNR: - That's what they're doing right now — they're delivering the draft notices to apartments and homes. I don't know the exact number of the notices, but I think we are talking about 50,000-60,000 people._

The LDNR units had already a strength of more then 140,000 in 2020. So add 50-60,000 people and add e.g. a probable but unknown figure for 2021 and you come up easily with ca. 200,000 men. One also needs to recall that the "civil war" conducted between the Putin termed (Nazi/fascist Ukraine units) and the LDNR units has been ongoing since 2014.
Therefore the Moscow Times article from February 2nd mentions that the LDNR needs to be at 100,000. - in 2015!!
How many Russian troops supported these LDNR units from 2014 to 2022 I wouldn't be able to place a reliable figure.

As for your comparison with WWII - as you know that doesn't stick much, since those territories 80 years ago did not behold hundreds of villages and towns nowadays existing along the front-line and throughout the Ukraine. Also the Ukrainian forces have logically fortified their positions heavily since 2014.

So that e.g. 130 BTG's or 100,000 men or 95 BTG's (75,000men) "including the LDNR units" are only able to make slow or almost no significant progress toward the Ukrainian lines since April is understood. - at least to me.

Therefore my statement; less then 50,000 Russian soldiers are temporarily engaged in combat - with another 100,000 being assembled that will be brought into action.
Since NATO or the media ignores the existence of the LDNR units (but only refers to Russian or BTG's) when it comes to combat numbers, I will logically leave it up to the individual
to make up his own mind or assumptions towards the actual composition of these "Russian units".

On 3rd of March, the LDNR units "claimed" the liberation of around 120 villages, towns and areas (not the Russian army) this was also reported on by the western media - so one can not claim/forward that an LDNR wouldn't exist, or that all conquering was done solely by Russian units.

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

?

NATO has not been ignoring the Russian backed separatist forces. They have mentioned them multiple times in intel press briefings, and each time have placed the overwhelming majority of them in the Donetsk/Donbas/Luhansk areas. They have repeatedly mentioned that they are engaging the UAF forces in those regions. The Russian backed separatist numbers mentioned have ranged from 35,000 to 45,000 troops actively engaged on the eastern front, from the beginning of the invasion. There are also Russian ground forces engaged on the eastern front. These have also been mentioned in the intel press briefings. Since the redeployment NATO has mentioned that there are now more Russian ground forces on the eastern front engaging the UAF there.

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

Well great, my bullshit meter pegged too hard one too many times.

Going to have to replace it (again)...

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Therefore the Moscow Times...


Ahh...I see why my bullshit meter broke...

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> ?
> 
> NATO has not been ignoring the Russian backed separatist forces. They have mentioned them multiple times in intel press briefings, and each time have placed the overwhelming majority of them in the Donetsk/Donbas/Luhansk areas. They have repeatedly mentioned that they are engaging the UAF forces in those regions. The Russian backed separatist numbers mentioned have ranged from 35,000 to 45,000 troops actively engaged on the eastern front, from the beginning of the invasion. There are also Russian ground forces engaged on the eastern front. These have also been mentioned in the intel press briefings. Since the redeployment there are more Russian ground forces on the eastern front engaging the UAF there.


Thank you, so 130 or 94 BTG's = 70,000-100,000 men would include according to your stats 35-45,000 LDNR units. 
Then why would I need to forward proof with my statement that the actual number of Russian units in combat is less then 50,000?

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

The issue is that due to the LDNR units having officially being integrated into the 8th Russian army since March 3rd - NATO simply isn't able or willing to differentiate
between the "real" Russian army and the in-cooperated LDNR units.


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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

Stop with the "LDNR" bullshit already.

Your fantasy trippin' is funny to a certain point, but some of us are starting to think you're actually serious about the crap you're posting.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Stop with the "LDNR" bullshit already.
> 
> Your fantasy trippin' is funny to a certain point, but some of us are starting to think you're actually serious about the crap you're posting.


Language, language - okay!!

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Language, language - okay!!


Nein - I call it like I see it.

Would you be more comfortable if I called your posts "глупости", then?

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

re "Thank you, so 130 or 94 BTG's = 70,000-100,000 men would include according to your stats 35-45,000 LDNR units."

No.

From the start of the invasion in February the Russians fed ~180,000 troops into the Ukraine from Belarus, Russia, and by landing ships from the Black Sea (the airborne troops flew in from Russia). At the start of the invasion there were already ~35,000 to 45,000 Russian backed separatists engaged on the eastern front. There were also a relatively small number of Russian troops (regular, irregular mercenary, advisors, and whatever else you want to call them) estimated at less than 3,000 - already engaged in the fighting on the eastern front.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Jagdflieger,
> 
> re "Thank you, so 130 or 94 BTG's = 70,000-100,000 men would include according to your stats 35-45,000 LDNR units."
> 
> ...


Again you are bringing up February - I am talking about END of MARCH til NOW. geezzh...


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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Nein - I call it like I see it.
> 
> Would you be more comfortable if I called your posts "глупости", then?


Wenn Du an einer zivilisierten Diskussion nicht interessiert bist, oder nichts substanzielles beitragen kannst, dann spar Dir doch einfach Deine meist voellig deplazierten und falschen Aussagen.
Mit schoenem Gruss

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## Jabberwocky (May 1, 2022)

US Intelligence reported in late March that 120 Russian BTGs had deployed in Ukraine at some point in the previous month. Specifically Russian.

US Intelligence briefing as of 24 April had 85 Russian BTGs actively engaged in Donbass. Again specifically Russia. That's per a US Congressional Research Service 27 April update.

A further 22 BTGs have been identified as undergoing rest/refit to the north and east. That's US Intelligence information from some point prior to 19th April.

UK MoD has a further 11 Russian BTGs operating in the regions north and north-east of Crimea, up to Mariupol.

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

And there are still ~35,000 to 40,000 Russian backed separatists engaging the UAF on the eastern front. There are also a very large number of Russian troops estimated at ~110,000+ that have redeployed/are redeploying eastward from the other engagements areas in the Ukraine (I think the latest intel says that the areas around Kyiv and north of Kyiv are empty of Russian troops now). Then there is the 18th Mechanized Division of ~15,000 deploying from Russia to the east. And there are still the Russian troops that originally deployed in the south (estimated at ~15,000).

The total forces in Ukraine fighting against the UAF therefor currently amount to ~35,000 to 45,000 Russian backed separatists + ~110,000 Russian troops redeployed/redeploying from the areas originally invade in the central Ukraine to the east + the ~15,000 Russian troops of the 18th Mechanized Infantry Division + ~15,000 Russian troops in the south + ~3,000 Russian troops (regular, irregular mercenary, advisors, and whatever else you want to call them) for a grand total of ~178,000 to 188,000.

Note that only 35,000 to 45,000 are Russian backed separatists. The rest are Russian, with a small number of mercenary troops thrown in.

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Wenn Du an einer zivilisierten Diskussion nicht interessiert bist, oder nichts substanzielles beitragen kannst, dann spar Dir doch einfach Deine meist voellig deplazierten und falschen Aussagen.
> Mit schoenem Gruss


Du armer wahnsinniger idiot. Wir lachen über deinen Unsinn.

Aber bitte weitermachen, der Spaß lohnt sich.

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

Jabberwocky's post above gives a total number of BTG somewhere around 118. A full strength Russian BTG usually has around 800+ men depending on what specialist units are directly attached.

118 x 800+ = 94,400+

When you add in all the support units for the typical combat unit organizations you can estimate the total number of Russian troops in the Ukraine at about 1.5x to 2x the number of line troops, so

1.5 x 94,400 = 141,600
to
2.0 x 94,400 = 188,800

If you add up just the Russian troops I listed in my post#5,307 you get ~143,000 troops. That is toward the small end of the spectrum, but I suspect it is due to some of the non-combat support units being just across the border in Russia.

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## at6 (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The issue is that due to the LDNR units having officially being integrated into the 8th Russian army since March 3rd - NATO simply isn't able or willing to differentiate
> between the "real" Russian army and the in-cooperated LDNR units.


Are you sure that you don't work for rags like Pravda?

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## at6 (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Du armer wahnsinniger idiot. Wir lachen über deinen Unsinn.
> 
> Aber bitte weitermachen, der Spaß lohnt sich.


Since my German is limited{severely I might add}, I noticed that a certain poster only joined us after the Putin piss fest started. No wonder he has secret sources to be "trusted".

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## at6 (May 1, 2022)

The more dead Russian Generals the better. The stupid troops might get the message. "Russians go home".


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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

Interesting bit of info;

"Russia forcing occupied Ukrainians to use its mobile network"

Another interesting bit of info:

NATO intel assets have indicated that Putin and his buddies have decided to keep the Russian combat units in Ukraine during rebuild of material and replacement of troop combat losses. When you combine this with the Russian troops having been forced to turn in/dispose of their personel cell phones, it appears the intent is to control/prevent contact/communication between troops in the Ukraine and civilians in Russia.

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## at6 (May 1, 2022)

There was coverage of a funeral for a dead Russian soldier. For some reason I felt no sympathy for the whore or her dead bastard.

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## Glider (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Thank you, so 130 or 94 BTG's = 70,000-100,000 men would include according to your stats 35-45,000 LDNR units.
> Then why would I need to forward proof with my statement that the actual number of Russian units in combat is less then 50,000?



Maybe you would like to comment on the following. I would certainly like your views. You will note that units of the 8th Army only form a very small percentage of the Order of battle. This is my supporting evidence, where is you evidence (not a pile of assumptions)






Order of battle for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## rednev (May 1, 2022)

Interesting to see a russian disinformation campaign in action

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

30 April 2022 Intel briefing

Russia is deploying forces drawn from its Eastern Military District units along with several air-defense assets believed to be from the Central Military District. They have reportedly begun moving from Belgorod to the Izyum front to support Russian units attempting to advance south of the city. It is believed the units currently in the Izyum front have been or will soon be attrited to the point where they are no longer capable of offensive operations.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 1, 2022)

rednev said:


> Interesting to see a russian disinformation campaign in action


This forum is worth a russian disinformation campaign? 

What a honour! It must be much more influential than I think!

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Du armer wahnsinniger idiot. Wir lachen über deinen Unsinn.
> 
> Aber bitte weitermachen, der Spaß lohnt sich.


Mir geht es bei den meisten Postings von Euch, speziell in diesem Thread genauso - also bitte weiter so


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## J_P_C (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The issue is that due to the LDNR units having officially being integrated into the 8th Russian army since March 3rd - NATO simply isn't able or willing to differentiate
> between the "real" Russian army and the in-cooperated LDNR units.


let me ask just single basic question - what is your basis for making split between "separatist" and "russian units"? - both are conscripted under russian federation flag, equipped and commanded by russia. Is any difference if soldiers are conscripted in village under Vladivostok or Donetsk? Except of fact that this one from Donetsk are highly probable to shoot their own officers and change colors of the bands on their arms????

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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

If a large majority of the combat troops on the separatist side were Ukraine natives, then Russia might be able to say (with a straight face) that this is actually a civil war - not an invasion - and Russia is just helping out the underdog.

During the last few months (beginning in November 2021) leading up to the invasion the separatist government/occupation authorities (at the 'urging' of the Russian government) attempted to enact a draft system. Unfortunately for the separatists and the Russians, the population as a whole was not in the mood to be drafted, and most refused to answer the summons and show up for intake. On February 19 the separatist government/occupation authorities ordered a general mobilization (which they do not have the authority to do under the separatist government's charter) and began forced conscription. Unfortunately for the separatist government/occupation authorities and the Russians, when they began using force to round up any of the registered citizens they could find - many of the potential conscripts hid or otherwise evaded the authorities, and many refused to cooperate. It is not known exactly how many were successfully conscripted, but the estimate is around 6,000.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> let me ask just single basic question - what is your basis for making split between "separatist" and "russian units"? - both are conscripted under russian federation flag, equipped and commanded by russia. Is any difference if soldiers are conscripted in village under Vladivostok or Donetsk? Except of fact that this one from Donetsk are highly probable to shoot their own officers and change colors of the bands on their arms????


Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.

There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective 
Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.

Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south, there is no evidence as to what the Russian army is actually capable of in the meantime and lets say from August/September onward. This places the actual strength of the Russian Army in February-March at 70-80,000 men involved in combat
and supported by around the same number = so total around 140-160,000 men. Not taking the main force of the LDNR into account that was in a static role in the east till end of March.

There are presently less then 35,000 regulars involved in combat since end of March - foremost in the southern Ukraine-parts and ca. 15-20,000 in combat on the eastern region. These troops are supported (not combat) by around 60-80,000 new conscript units. Making up a total force since end of March of around 100-135,000 Russian regular and newly conscripted units (the latter more then 60%). The ratio of Russian support troops to combat troops is not anywhere near the US or NATO standard.

Besides Mariupol (understandable) these 35,000 regulars involved in combat supported by larger parts of the LDNR in combat made quite an impressive territorial gain in the southern areas from Mariupol to the West, from mid March till mid April. 

So to me Russia is fighting a war towards Ukraine on a very small scale since mid of March- especially after withdrawing around 60-80,000 regular troops into Belarus and the Russian Bryansk area in mid March. If these 60-80,000 are still in the "resting" area or constitute e.g. 50% of the presently assembling 100,000 regulars on the eastern front, I wouldn't know.

If I am correct about the small scale - then Putin and his Army command are taking a 2 year and more approach towards the Ukraine. Big $$$ spending for NATO and the EU, peanut $ for Russia. 

The remaining question to me; is the 200,000 men strong LDNR getting better? (after all they have been in combat almost non-stop since 2014), or is it as most members here believe just 45,000 rag tags? And furthermore how many of these 200,000 LDNR in Feb.2022 are now already a part of these assembling 100,000 "Russian" regulars? and the 50,000 regular combat troops? - meaning Russia wouldn't need to bring in any additional troops of it's own - except to cover attrition, but they could rely onto a territorial force increasing it's capabilities and numbers whilst supporting this campaign with a mere 50,000-80,000 Russian troops. 

Looks to me like a possible Russian-Ukraine remake of the US failed idea in Vietnam. so exact knowledge about the LDNR is of huge interest - at least to me.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2022)

Knock it off with the, insults all of you!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2022)

And while we are at it, if anyone is going to provide “facts” then back it up with sources.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2022)

Russia planned downing passenger jet, blaming Ukraine Security Service of Ukraine


Valentyna Romanenko - Sunday, 1 May 2022, 12:09 The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims to have apprehended a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group that was preparing to shoot down a passenger plane and blame it on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the international partners supplying arms...




www.yahoo.com

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia planned downing passenger jet, blaming Ukraine Security Service of Ukraine
> 
> 
> Valentyna Romanenko - Sunday, 1 May 2022, 12:09 The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims to have apprehended a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group that was preparing to shoot down a passenger plane and blame it on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the international partners supplying arms...
> ...


Wouldn't know if that is true, but certainly these kind of "actions" on all sides can't be out-ruled.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Wouldn't know if that is true



I know right? It didn’t come from the Moscow Times…

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## J_P_C (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.
> 
> There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective
> Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.
> ...


sorry to say so but you are completely misunderstanding military system in russia. You are shuffling numbers without any support in reality - but lets consider you are correct - question is what changed from 2014? - the same "separatist" forces have stalled for 8 years in trench warfare and suddenly... bum... they have organized themselves and started full scale invasion of Ukraine with "small" backup of "almighty" russian army. Your thesis simply doesn't stick together. Just consider this facts - russia is not democratic country, their politicians are stealing incredible amounts of money (and other goods) from their own nation, conscript system in russia is faulty one, almost all conscripted soldiers are coming out from least wealthy part of society - they are not coming to the army because they do love mother russia but because they are starving or they have no money to pay clerk in Voyenkomat for "loosing" their papers. In military soldiers are treated as a cannon fodder by their officers and relations between soldiers itself more reassembling this one known from heavy prisons than from military in western countries. 
I like your style of avoiding answer on my question - what is difference between "separatist" (forcedly conscripted soldiers from regions occupied by russia) and russian "regulars" - is it just fact that some specnaz troops are wearing multicam uniforms and regulars are mostly uniformed in "ratnik" scheme camo?? and please not to try to throw more numbers without calling sources ("sputnik" and press conferences of Mrs. Zakharova are not quite credible ones).

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

I always know when there’s no real news to talk about when the tangential fringe takes over the discussion. I’ll come back later.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> sorry to say so but you are completely misunderstanding military system in russia. You are shuffling numbers without any support in reality - but lets consider you are correct - question is what changed from 2014? - the same "separatist" forces have stalled for 8 years in trench warfare and suddenly... bum... they have organized themselves and started full scale invasion of Ukraine with "small" backup of "almighty" russian army. Your thesis simply doesn't stick together. Just consider this facts - russia is not democratic country, their politicians are stealing incredible amounts of money (and other goods) from their own nation, conscript system in russia is faulty one, almost all conscripted soldiers are coming out from least wealthy part of society - they are not coming to the army because they do love mother russia but because they are starving or they have no money to pay clerk in Voyenkomat for "loosing" their papers. In military soldiers are treated as a cannon fodder by their officers and relations between soldiers itself more reassembling this one known from heavy prisons than from military in western countries.
> I like your style of avoiding answer on my question - what is difference between "separatist" (forcedly conscripted soldiers from regions occupied by russia) and russian "regulars" - is it just fact that some specnaz troops are wearing multicam uniforms and regulars are mostly uniformed in "ratnik" scheme camo?? and please not to try to throw more numbers without calling sources ("sputnik" and press conferences of Mrs. Zakharova are not quite credible ones).


Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?

The* optical *difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 800,000 conscript-regulars etc. have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over. 

As for the LDNR - there is far more to this issue then just numbers or your assumptions of them having been just in "trench warfare".
Considerable numbers of them have been very well trained by the Russian special and intelligence branches, in parallel just as certain units of the Ukrainian army by the CIA and other NATO special and intelligence branches since 2014. The question just remains - how strong are they presently and what has Russia in mind regarding a territorial army of which the special sections of the LDNR are the nucleus.
Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!


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## RogerdeLluria (May 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> 1,370 Instalaza C-90 anti-tank grenade launchers, an unspecified number of light machine guns and 700,000 bullets
> 1 RG-31 Nyala mine-resistant vehicle configured as an ambulance
> 
> 
> ...


I think a clarification is due here.

The numbers you cite are the contents of the first plane carrying military material. Spain has shipped so far *11 planes* with military/humanitarian material. Additionally, coinciding with president Sanchez visit to Kiev, Spain sent *a ship* with 200 (metric) tons of material (which is reported to be 2x the total material sent previously).

Spain made public the content of the 1rst shipment. However, after that, contents have never been public because of "national security reasons". So probably total military material sent to Ukraine is about 30 X the one reported by El Pais in March.

https://www.europapress.es/nacional...cion-40-caminones-ucrania-20220421145921.html
Initially I though it was withheld from the public so that potential enemies (I can only think about Morocco) didn't know what weapons we where depleting. But the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that actually the reason is to hide those contents from the extreme left party in the government coalition. Some of their member are openly vocal about not sending offensive material.

Regards.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!



Or, you could simply link to your sources so we can learn more.

I personally think that if the Russians are resorting to leavening their own units with Ukrainian conscripts, they got their asses kicked worse than anyone realizes. In that sense, I hope you're right. But I'd have to see a good source before I get that hopeful.

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## J_P_C (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?
> 
> The* optical *difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350-400,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 500-550,000 conscript-regulars have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over.
> 
> ...


I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.

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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.


I was really looking forward to your reply. You didn't disappoint.

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## buffnut453 (May 1, 2022)

More gains for Ukraine in the north...wish they could do likewise in the south:

_The head of the military administration in Kharkiv has confirmed to the BBC that four districts have been re-captured from the Russians.

Oleg Sinegubov said Ukrainian soldiers have regained full control over Kutuzovka, Verkhyna Rohanka, Slobidske and Prelensne.

"In Kutuzovka, about one hundred people, most of them elderly and children, lived in cold basements for two months without light, gas and food supplies," Sinegubov said. "Today our defenders were greeted with tears".

But while the situation has somewhat improved for people in those regions, the shelling has continued, he said.

Kharkiv, in Ukraine's north-east, was one of the places to come under early Russian assault._


It's unclear whether these areas were actually liberated through military action or if the Russian forces simply redeployed elsewhere.

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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?
> 
> The* optical *difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 800,000 conscript-regulars etc. have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over.
> 
> ...


Ain't jumping on you. I think you bring up some good points though your sources may be suspect. Russian forces may be better or larger than Allied estimates. That seems to me an historical "fact" (Allies underestimating remaining Axis aircraft for example). One side can't know everything about its opponent. Perhaps you might be trying to sound a warning against "unbridled enthusiasm". That is something I am for. Never underestimate your enemy, although it's getting harder and harder for me at this point. 
I do question your posting that considerable numbers of LNDR were "very well trained". RF forces up to this point have not demonstrated the training and capabilities that a first class, competent military should. That is my view.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.


Okay so your expertise towards Russia seems to be somewhat 25 years and more ago - not saying that one or you can't update yourself from 2nd hand information. As for me I was 20 years in the Bundeswehr - Army and Air-force and since 2000 till now active in the military advisor and defense consultant sector. Judging upon joint operation reports from China/Russia and former Soviet republics - the present regular Russian core army isn't that bad at all on the tactical up to Brigade level, but this is also known to NATO.

However less then 40,000 of those fellows were active in Ukraine and even far less right now - so you can make up your own mind as to who these NATO reported BTG's are composed off.
And Russia IMO will not sacrifice their core troops for getting their hands onto the remaining Ukraine - that will be the job of the new territorial army supported initially by around 100 -120,000 conscript-regulars. and about 30,000 regulars. Additionally supported at any given time by never more then 40,000 of the core force. 

So to me it is obvious that Russia in a first step is going to setup a sort of independent territorial army with around 200,000 men.

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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

I agree that Russia will attempt to build a territorial army.

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## swampyankee (May 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Yep. The web is like the bible (and probably all the other religions equivalent documents) - you can always find something to support your position - no matter how totally moronic it is.
> 
> If anything I would say there are more losers now than _back then._


As a proportion of the population, it's probably unchanged, but the Internet gives them all a bully pulpit. This broader dissemination of falsehoods has emboldened politicians to build campaigns around them.

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## J_P_C (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay so your expertise towards Russia seems to be somewhat 25 years and more ago - not saying that one or you can't update yourself from 2nd hand information. As for me I was 20 years in the Bundeswehr - Army and Air-force and since 2000 till now active in the military advisor and defense consultant sector. Judging upon joint operation reports from China/Russia and former Soviet republics - the present regular Russian core army isn't that bad at all on the tactical up to Brigade level, but this is also known to NATO.
> 
> However less then 40,000 of those fellows were active in Ukraine and even far less right now - so you can make up your own mind as to who these NATO reported BTG's are composed off.
> And Russia IMO will not sacrifice their core troops for getting their hands onto the remaining Ukraine - that will be the job of the new territorial army supported initially by around 100 -120,000 conscript-regulars. and about 30,000 regulars. Additionally supported at any given time by never more then 40,000 of the core force.
> ...


i'm fully respecting your knowledge and experience (even consultants are my preferred group of peoples - no responsibility for words and actions) , and yes im aircraft engineer with little bit rusted military experience even i still have plenty friends in Ukraine who are sharing with me their knowledge in a matter we are talking about. Considering my lacks of expertise in this matter, please explain to me your standpoint - lets assume even russia have gained 100% of Donetsk and Lugansk regions - which is not a case - how possibly you may mobilize 200k troops from territory with population less than 1 mln????

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ain't jumping on you. I think you bring up some good points though your sources may be suspect. Russian forces may be better or larger than Allied estimates. That seems to me an historical "fact" (Allies underestimating remaining Axis aircraft for example). One side can't know everything about its opponent. Perhaps you might be trying to sound a warning against "unbridled enthusiasm". That is something I am for. Never underestimate your enemy, although it's getting harder and harder for me at this point.
> I do question your posting that considerable numbers of LNDR were "very well trained". RF forces up to this point have not demonstrated the training and capabilities that a first class, competent military should. That is my view.


No problem.
One needs to understand the actual setup of the Russian armed forces. just simply counting BTG's in Ukraine as being Russian regulars simply ain't true.
The only regulars (core) they have is around 350,000. (For the whole of Russia). Therefore never more then 40,000 of those were ever involved.
From those 800,000 conscript-regulars, Camel papers checking troops at most 150,000 are somewhat equivalent to the UAF. (Again for the whole of Russia)

Therefore the only feasible option I can see Russia enacting - is the formation of this territorial army. Once this army stands, IMO 2 years at most, there is no way for the Ukraine to get back their lost territory. Wait another 2-3 years and Russia will have their own additional forces to have a 3rd go at Ukraine - which is already and for the next years to come devoid of
any own significant industry and economic power.

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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

UAV? To me that means unmanned aerial vehicle.

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More gains for Ukraine in the north...wish they could do likewise in the south:


Me too. I hope the UAF can muster the necessary mechanized forces for a quick drive on Mariupol. Those heroic men and women need to see the siege lifted.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i'm fully respecting your knowledge and experience (even consultants are my preferred group of peoples - no responsibility for words and actions) , and yes im aircraft engineer with little bit rusted military experience even i still have plenty friends in Ukraine who are sharing with me their knowledge in a matter we are talking about. Considering my lacks of expertise in this matter, please explain to me your standpoint - lets assume even russia have gained 100% of Donetsk and Lugansk regions - which is not a case - how possibly you may mobilize 200k troops from territory with population less than 1 mln????


AFAIK Russia and Human rights watch plus several more accepted international organizations have claimed/confirmed that 1,5-2,0 million Russo-Ukrainians were displaced into Russia between 2014-2020. Actually by those Putin termed (Nazi and fascist UKi units)
Bring these back, plus those presently still remaining and add if necessary 1 million "volunteer settlers" and the population will be at minimum around 4 million ( I got no idea as to how many right now are living additionally on the Crimea) so 4 million shouldn't be a problem to feed/nurture a 200-250,000 men strong army - paid anyway by Russia - how much internal unrest will actually occur is difficult to analyze but easier to remedy knowing that Russia aka Putin is actually no democrat at heart

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## Glider (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.
> 
> There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective
> Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.
> ...


You are correct I do not tire about bringing up the February Stats because they are a petty detailed breakdown of the order of battle at the start of the invasion. What I am waiting for is some comment from yourself as to those stats.
Its worth mentioning as you in the above section state : -
'_Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south_'
The stats that I show (which you don't seem to deny) come to massively more than the 75,000 you state. You could of course be correct but you will appreciate that we would like some form of supporting evidence to form a balanced opinion.

Just for a slight change in direction, can you give us your assessment of the losses suffered by the Russian and it's allied forces?

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> You are correct I do not tire about bringing up the February Stats because they are a petty detailed breakdown of the order of battle at the start of the invasion. What I am waiting for is some comment from yourself as to those stats.
> Its worth mentioning as you in the above section state : -
> '_Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south_'
> The stats that I show (which you don't seem to deny) come to massively more than the 75,000 you state. You could of course be correct but you will appreciate that we would like some form of supporting evidence to form a balanced opinion.
> ...


I stated about 3-4 days ago that I would not be surprised to find out that Russia has already lost about 1000MBT's. - this figure was confirmed by the UAF stat published and posted yesterday. Whereby I have reasons to believe that around 60% of the Russian losses occurred around Kiev in the first 10-15 days.
Personally I tend more to the UAF stat then the one the UK department forwarded. 

As for the UKF - since they have far more less hard targets to offer, and their defensive layout their losses can't be more then 15% of the RF
Since Russia so far has restrained from exessive cluster ammo usage and totally from vacuum bombs, manpower wise I would estimate UAF losses at 4000-5000. 
Whereby Mariupol alone might increase this figure from 5000 to 8000.

What figures would you have?


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## Glider (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I stated about 3-4 days ago that I would not be surprised to find out that Russia has already lost about 1000MBT's. - this figure was confirmed by the UAF stat published and posted yesterday. Whereby I have reasons to believe that around 60% of the Russian losses occurred around Kiev in the first 10-15 days.
> Personally I tend more to the UAF stat then the one the UK department forwarded.
> 
> As for the UKF - since they have far more less hard targets to offer, and their defensive layout their losses can't be more then 15% of the RF
> ...


I would go with your set of assumptions. If we work on the basis that approx 2-3 people are wounded for everyone that is killed, and split the difference between the UK earlier assessment of 15,000 killed and the Ukraine figure of about 21,000. That would give about 18,000 killed and 45,000 wounded giving an almost unbelievable casualty figure of 63,000 casualties out of a starting force of about 175,000, in the area of 1/3rd which is a real horror story.

There are of course no hard and fast stats, but the numbers are stacking up at a serious rate

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 1, 2022)

_
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons against its neighbor.

Kinzinger announced the joint resolution during an interview with moderator Margaret Brennan on CBS's "Face the Nation." Asked if it is too soon to be discussing potential use of force in Ukraine, Kinzinger said, "No, I don't."

"I don't think we need to be using force in Ukraine right now. I just introduced an AUMF, an authorization for the use of military force, giving the president basically congressional leverage for permission to use it if WMDs, nuclear, biological or chemical are used in Ukraine," Kinzinger said.

The congressman said the AUMF would give Biden leverage, adding that the resolution could serve as a deterrent to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Doesn't compel the president to do it, it just says if it is used, he has that leverage. It gives him, you know, a better flexibility, but also it is a deterrent to Vladimir Putin," Kinzinger said.

"If Vladimir Putin wants to escalate with the West, he will. It's easy for him to do it. And I think right now what we're doing with supplying, with lend-lease, with the financing is right," he added._









Kinzinger introduces AUMF to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological, nuclear weapons


Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukra…




thehill.com





I think this is a good step.

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## Jagdflieger (May 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons against its neighbor.
> 
> Kinzinger announced the joint resolution during an interview with moderator Margaret Brennan on CBS's "Face the Nation." Asked if it is too soon to be discussing potential use of force in Ukraine, Kinzinger said, "No, I don't."
> 
> ...


Well finally one western politician laying the cards on the table before Putin pulls his fantasy Joker.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Well finally one western politician laying the cards on the table before Putin pulls his fantasy Joker.



Agreed. Ambiguity in diplomacy can be a dangerous thing.

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## GTX (May 1, 2022)

M777s gifted by Australia:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 1, 2022)

Putin is inching towards his nukes, threatening to annihilate the world if he fails to capture Ukraine, says foreign affairs expert


The world has to stop Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, because he is an existential threat to the human civilization, international affairs expert Ivan Yakovina said in an interview with NV Radio. We print an edited transcript of the interview below:




www.yahoo.com


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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> M777s gifted by Australia:
> 
> View attachment 666505
> 
> ...


Good on ya', Mate!


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## tomo pauk (May 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since Russia so far has restrained from exessive cluster ammo usage and totally from vacuum bombs, manpower wise I would estimate UAF losses at 4000-5000.



TOS-1 was probably used in 2022, it's ordnance counts under 'vacuum bombs' IMO.

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> M777s gifted by Australia:
> 
> View attachment 666505
> 
> ...


Putin has to be itching to strike their airfields in Poland and thereabouts.

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## ARTESH (May 1, 2022)

Several of my friends volunteered to join the Ukrainian Resistance ...

Some other Iranians from nearby countries, volunteered too!

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Several of my friends volunteered to join the Ukrainian Resistance ...


“Resistance”, as in partisans behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine? Or, volunteered to join the Ukrainian armed forces?


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## SaparotRob (May 1, 2022)

I thought hyperbaric bombs were used attacking the steel plant in Mariupol.


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## ARTESH (May 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> “Resistance”, as in partisans behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine? Or, volunteered to join the Ukrainian armed forces?


I do not know much.

But the Ukrainian embassy was asking for those who want to help by fighting.


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## ThomasP (May 1, 2022)

Interesting bit of info.

Although China has been somewhat politically supportive of Russia's actions re the Ukraine, they have also been somewhat quietly sending large amounts of humanitarian aid to the Ukraine (ie the Zelenskyy side of Ukraine) to the tune of about $10,000,000 since mid-march. Not a huge amount in the grand scheme, but it is a comment on what their view is regarding the happenings in Ukraine. The Chinese have been flying the supplies into Romania, from where it is trucked into Ukraine.

When asked why China was sending humanitarian aid to the Ukraine opposing the Russia invasion - which China has not condemned - the spokesman replied "Zhè shì zuòrén de wèntí" which translates as "It is a matter of being human".

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting bit of info.
> 
> Although China has been somewhat politically supportive of Russia's actions re the Ukraine, they have also been somewhat quietly sending large amounts of humanitarian aid to the Ukraine (ie the Zelenskyy side of Ukraine) to the tune of about $10,000,000 since mid-march. Not a huge amount in the grand scheme, but it is a comment on what their view is regarding the happenings in Ukraine. The Chinese have been flying the supplies into Romania, from where it is trucked into Ukraine.
> 
> When asked why China was sending humanitarian aid to the Ukraine opposing the Russia invasion - which China has not condemned - the spokesman replied "Zhè shì zuòrén de wèntí" which translates as "It is a matter of being human".


I feel that China has a fair degree of FOMO. They don’t want something big happening somewhere without the world seeing Beijing involved in some measure.

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## vikingBerserker (May 1, 2022)

I will say, I've always thought China was very good at playing Chess

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## vikingBerserker (May 1, 2022)

Not sure if this has been posted yet.









Ninth Russian general killed as Ukrainians launch devastating attack on HQ


VLADIMIR Putin has lost his ninth general while fighting in Ukraine following an attack on a military base. The tyrant’s war has taken a toll on Russia’s army as Major General Andrei Si…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## MiTasol (May 1, 2022)

A source I saw earlier to day - yahoo - says they have now lost 10. Obviously someone somewhere is adding/missing a death.








A Russian general who commanded electronic-warfare units was killed in a strike that killed 100 soldiers, Ukraine official says


Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov was said to be killed when Ukrainian forces bombarded a Russian command post near the city of Izyum.




news.yahoo.com





I also saw this item which is so b---- obviously the sort of thing you would expect from Putin given his history tho I think he is more likely to be targeting Russians who have escaped his control.








Putin's army of saboteurs 'could enter UK to attack key targets'


BRITAIN’S security services were on high alert on Saturday amid fears Putin’s army of saboteurs “could infiltrate the UK to attack key targets”, it was claimed. Senior offic…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## GrauGeist (May 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> A source I saw earlier to day - yahoo - says they have now lost 10. Obviously someone somewhere is adding/missing a death.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If Putin wants to play that game, he had better make sure his ase is not dangling in the breeze.
Moscow has plenty of "key targets", too.

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## Admiral Beez (May 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I also saw this item which is so b---- obviously the sort of thing you would expect from Putin given his history tho I think he is more likely to be targeting Russians who have escaped his control.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Putin just can’t believe he’s not the smartest guy in the room. Are his saboteurs any better at their jobs than his officer corps and line troops? Does Russia really want to send covert forces into Britain? I suspect the latter might be better at it than your guys.


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## MiTasol (May 1, 2022)

Yeah - if he did that he might find his office plastered with SAS recruitment stickers - just before he expired of natural causes.

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## JDCAVE (May 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That goes back to the Schoolyard Bully who gets his ass kicked by the kids who are tired of his sh!t - so he runs of crying like a whiney bitch, telling anyone who'll listen, that mean people beat him up.
> 
> That actually happened to me in school - the bully and his posse were hassling kids in the hallway, making them pay up to pass. As I came down the hall, he stopped me and said "a buck to go by" and I looked him square in the eye and told him to go eff himself. He poked me in the chest and said "your ass is mine after scho......".
> He never get the last words out, I nailed his face with a left jab and followed with a right cross and he fell like a sack of bricks, then I stepped on him on my way past his clowns, who were standing like statues.
> ...


I did something similar. Pushed the bully down, sat on his chest and wailed on his nose. The teacher looked at the situation and wanted on by.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I also saw this item which is so b---- obviously the sort of thing you would expect from Putin given his history tho I think he is more likely to be targeting Russians who have escaped his control.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Is this Putin throwing bullshit into the air, or a media outlet trying to drum up clickbait? The rhetoric in that article is pretty overheated, which causes my bullshit detector to drop into active mode.

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## Glider (May 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Is this Putin throwing bullshit into the air, or a media outlet trying to drum up clickbait? The rhetoric in that article is pretty overheated, which causes my bullshit detector to drop into active mode.


I would go for the Media outlet part of your posting. I also suggest your bullshit detector is working just fine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> I would go for the Media outlet part of your posting. I also suggest your bullshit detector is working just fine.



Thanks, appreciate the doublecheck.

Of course, spooks are gonna spook.


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## FLYBOYJ (May 2, 2022)

Hmmmm...









Ghost of Kyiv 'killed' after shooting down FORTY Russian aircraft


Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29, a father of one, was flying a MiG-29 when it was shot down on March 13 battling 'overwhelming' enemy forces.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## fubar57 (May 2, 2022)



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## ThomasP (May 2, 2022)

I suspect that the saboteurs being talked about are of the cyber-warfare and hacking variety.

The US has transmitted a warning to all concerned (this includes NATO and such) that they should plan on various levels of cyber attacks to be attempted by the Russians. This includes the possibility of everything from data theft to destruction/corruption of data to ransomware attacks to impairment of soft and hard systems functionality. There have been Russian operatives spotted in the US using pretty sophisticated electronic systems and software to recon the accessibility to local internet based systems, and map/determine soft and hard access points to various systems.

The US has been upgrading the cyber security on its critical infrastructure over the last 20 years or so. Part of that upgrade includes limiting the access points to the systems potentially exploitable by cyber attackers.

An example of what we are talking about is the Cyber Partizan attacks on the Belarus/Russian railway system. Part of the attack was through hacking into the railroad's scheduling software (ie ticketing -> routing -> monitoring) through 'hardware' system access points. Some of the disruption was caused by the actual hands-on physical destruction of electronic control hardware used in the routing and monitoring systems, accomplished by dissidents within and without the railroad worker community.

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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I thought hyperbaric bombs were used attacking the steel plant in Mariupol.


The RF has made very limited use of their TOS-1A "Flamethrower" system - based on an MLRS system
If they had made use of "vacuum bombs" - we wouldn't be reading about Mariupol in the news anymore. So far I have not heard about NATO's intended response if Putin resorts
to this or similar non ABC weapons. After-all that is a real civilian killer weapon - since the UKF is to a high degree defensively embedded in urban positions. 





TOS-1A Heavy Flamethrower System | Military-Today.com


The TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system is the latest version of the original TOS-1. It was accepted to service with the Russian Army in 2001. The TOS-1A saw combat in Chechnya.



www.military-today.com


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## ThomasP (May 2, 2022)

Some interesting back ground info (maybe) for those not aware of some of the stuff leading up to the fighting between Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk. (This includes me before before I began reading up on the subject )

"Donbas - Wikipedia"

"Donetsk - Wikipedia"
"Donetsk Oblast - Wikipedia"

"Luhansk - Wikipedia"
"Luhansk Oblast - Wikipedia"

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The RF has made very limited use of their TOS-1A "Flamethrower" system - based on an MLRS system
> If they had made use of "vacuum bombs" - we wouldn't be reading about Mariupol in the news anymore. So far I have not heard about NATO's intended response if Putin resorts
> to this or similar non ABC weapons. After-all that is a real civilian killer weapon - since the UKF is to a high degree defensively embedded in urban positions.
> 
> ...


There is no international law forbidding thermobaric weapons.

They are not as devestating as you allude to - they've been used as recently as Syria.

A MOAB bomb in an urban center would be more devestating.

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## fubar57 (May 2, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-ghost-of-kyiv-myth-1.6437895

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## MiTasol (May 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Is this Putin throwing bullshit into the air, or a media outlet trying to drum up clickbait? The rhetoric in that article is pretty overheated, which causes my bullshit detector to drop into active mode.



Don't know - I just read the opening paragraph and went "well duh" - freeking obvious given his history

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## J_P_C (May 2, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 666548​


quite nice kit - comparable to Italeri could be even slightly better

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## J_P_C (May 2, 2022)

HM Intelligence opinion..., i will be grateful 
J
 Jagdflieger
for making comments....

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## buffnut453 (May 2, 2022)

There's stooping low and then there's digging a tunnel to Australia:









Israel outrage at Sergei Lavrov's claim that Hitler was part Jewish


The Russian foreign minister's claim that Hitler "had Jewish blood" is denounced as unforgiveable.



www.bbc.com

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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)

That's called digging a hole, continuing to dig and then pulling the dirt in on top of you.

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## Zipper730 (May 2, 2022)

Is this data reliable? I'm curious about the possibility of the following

Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
State of Emergency declared in the United States as a precautionary measure
Escalation to nuclear war


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

There won't be a "state of emergency" in America, for political reasons. That's as much as I will say.


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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Is this data reliable? I'm curious about the possibility of the following
> 
> Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
> State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
> ...


I don't know if this helps, but I find on my posts where I include a photo it comes out way too large. If you click edit you can grab the corner of the image and shrink it. I do that most times. It doesn't work when you initially post, even if you shrink the image before posting it still posts at the original huge size, but if you click edit after posting you can effectively shrink the image. Just my two pennies.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There's stooping low and then there's digging a tunnel to Australia:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Anything that encourages Israel to send some lethal aid to Ukraine is welcome.

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## buffnut453 (May 2, 2022)

More from BBC....looks like Ukraine has hit a couple of small Russian Navy vessels:





_
A Ukrainian drone has destroyed two Russian patrol ships in the Black Sea, Ukraine's military chief says.

"Two Russian Raptor-class boats were destroyed at dawn today near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island," Chief of General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhniy says.

Unverified drone footage released by the Ukrainian military appears to show two ships being targeted by missiles from the air while on patrol in the Black Sea.

Moscow is yet to respond to the claim._

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## buffnut453 (May 2, 2022)

Fracture points within EU over Russian oil?

_Budapest remains opposed to the introduction of an EU embargo on oil and gas imported from Russia, government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs says.

"The Hungarian stance regarding any oil and gas embargo has not changed: we do not support them," he says.

A total embargo on the two Russian fossil fuels is currently being considered by the EU Commission for inclusion in its sixth round of sanctions against Moscow.

EU energy ministers are hoping to reach a united stance on Russian gas and oil via a series of emergency talks this week.

However, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck admits there's no unanimous view among the bloc's 27 countries on winding down supplies of Russian energy.

Of a potential oil embargo, he says: "Other countries aren't there yet, and I think that needs to be respected. In the case of gas, for example, we would not be ready either."

Moscow continues to state that foreign gas buyers must pay into its own private bank, Gazprombank, which would convert any dollars or euros into roubles.

The European Commission suggests European countries complying with Moscow's banking requirement may breach EU sanctions._

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## Jerad (May 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Подробнее от Би-би-си… похоже, Украина нанесла удар по паре малых кораблей ВМФ России:
> 
> View attachment 666599
> 
> ...

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## buffnut453 (May 2, 2022)

Jerad said:


>




Yep...that'll be 2 more vessels to join the Russian Black Sea Fleet's man-made reefs project.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More from BBC....looks like Ukraine has hit a couple of small Russian Navy vessels:
> 
> _A Ukrainian drone has destroyed two Russian patrol ships in the Black Sea, Ukraine's military chief says.
> 
> ...


If that's accurate, the Russian navy has thus far lost...

1 x Slava-class guided missile cruiser (flagship of the fleet, Moskva)
1 x Tapir-class landing ship (BDK-65 Saratov). There's also some news of another, BDK-69 Orsk being also sunk, but IDK)
2 x Ropucha-class landing ships (not sunk, but significant damage)
3 x Raptor-class patrol boats

Next target should be the Kilo class SSK, Satellite photos show missiles being loaded onto Russian submarine. Dolphin pens, too.

Why did Ukraine scuttle its flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny? With Moskva's loss the Sahaidachny would be one of the most powerful warships on the Black Sea. Were the Ukrainians unable to put to sea to avoid capture? When this war's over Ukraine will need a new flagship, maybe they can get one (or two) or the Type 23 frigates Britain is decommissioning.... though they're lacking in the land attack capability needed by the Ukrainians.

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

The Ukrainian Navy couldn't get her out to sea in the short time they had to react.

The U.S. Navy will be retiring many of it's Ticonderoga class cruisers here soon - perhaps the Ukraine could use some?

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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 666565
> 
> HM Intelligence opinion..., i will be grateful
> J
> ...


Testing me? okay I will take on the bait, 

The Russian army is in majority still on a Brigade/Regimental Tactical Group level, especially again since April. Since the Russian army (for whatever reason) does not deploy e.g. an entire Division but only parts of it - e.g. 1st Brigade of the 1st Division is deployed to X. 50% of this 1st Brigade is composed of e.g. 2 BTG's the rest of the Brigade isn't equipped and trained to operate as a BTG and therefore remains non-active. (staying at their base) Not every Russian Division or Brigade is BTG capable, therefore only some have the tactical elements of a BTG.

So yes around 120 BTG's constitute around 60% of Russia's BTG trained units. if you know about the composition and tactical role of a BTG, then you will also realize that these formations are totally self-dependent - meaning as some forum members posted, e.g. 1 BTG =700 men + about the same amount or more in a supportive role, is wrong. since they
run their own support, logistic, medical etc. within these approx. 700men strong BTG's. - that is why the Russians developed these BTG formations in the first place.

Actually very useful and capable - in a surprise or initial phase of an attack - especially when faced with irregulars or militias. (The latter is actually the reason for their implementation) The BTG tactics actually paid of very well in the initial occupation of e.g. Kiev-Hostomel airport by the VDV's BTG's and "some" forward based BTG elements of the "core" army. What caused the disaster wasn't the BTG tactics - but the total inability of the respective Army commands to give clear battle-orders and to ensure the continued supply of these BTG's. via the "standard" armed forces setting up supply depots/infrastructure.
Furthermore complicated by the issue of "standard" formations not even having the supplies needed by BTG's and the communication required to arrange logistics. BTG's are usually
prepared or entrusted with 2-4 day lasting operations.

Important to know is that most BTG capable Brigades and Regiments are drawn from the National Guard, Border-Guard Divisions, Naval infantry and from Militias - not really from the "core" army, or the conscript-regular army.
Entirely different story in regards to the BTG's from the VDV forces - basically 100% are organized in that tactical layout.

Coming back to the stats - the BTG units have suffered the brunt of the losses from 24th February till mid/end March - since April The Russian Army Command has to 85% relied on the "old" Brigade/Regimental tactical layout since there is no more a surprise element in their attack - and having realized that the UAF are in very well prepared defensive/urban areas
and equipped with suitable heavy equipment.

The question now remains if these "battered" BTG's are going to be refitted entirely and redeployed to their original base units or to a large part integrated into the combined arms-layout of an Brigade/Regimental Tactical Group level within newly found/designated divisions-in view of a general mobilization call. Personally I think that the Russians will opt for the latter possibility.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The U.S. Navy will be retiring many of it's Ticonderoga class cruisers here soon - perhaps the Ukraine could use some?


No, too manpower heavy and not suitable for the confines of the Black Sea. Ukraine needs short range, low-manpower frigates capable of NGFS and land attack missile strikes, plus AShM, ASW, SAM and CIWS capability. 

It will need to be a second hand ship in order to manage cost. Something like Malaysia's British-made Lekiu-class frigates, but modified with more land attack capability.

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

The Ticonderoga class fits inbetween the Slava class cruisers and the Krivak class frigates both in size and compliment.


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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ticonderoga class fits inbetween the Slava class cruisers and the Krivak class frigates both in size and compliment.


You can compliment them all you want, but the Ukrainians can't support a cruiser-sized complement.

If postwar, money can be had for acquisition and training on the automated systems, Ukraine could find the 80-100 complement for the Type 31 frigates that Poland has just announced. Though I'm not sure Ukraine will be able to afford new-built warships without significant foreign aid.









Poland strikes deal to buy British Type 31 Frigates


Babcock has won a bid to supply three new warships to Poland's navy.




www.forces.net





With its success with drones, man portable missiles and sigint; I would argue this war has clearly demonstrated that Ukraine needs to pursue military technology over manpower. The UAF of 2032, including its navy will look very different from today's.

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## Glider (May 2, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 666565
> 
> HM Intelligence opinion..., i will be grateful
> J
> ...


I wouldn't hold your breath, but I would be delighted to be wrong

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## Glider (May 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Is this data reliable? I'm curious about the possibility of the following
> 
> Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
> State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
> ...



Just a personal guess but these are my thoughts

Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
Cyber - attacks would be highly likely, indeed probable, but Crippling the country highly unlikely as a number have already been launched. One of the big surprises of the campaign is just how ineffective the Russian cyber attacks have been. Indeed they have been on the receiving end of some highly effective cyber attacks. In this and in so many ways Russia has been seen to be a paper Tiger. Confront it, see it for what it is and it loses a lot of its presumed strength, and with that, fear. I am not saying it should be discounted, but looked at in a realistic manner. The fantasy of one attack knocking out an entire country is so unlikely it's almost a fantasy. besides countries have contingency plans. 
State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
Why? NATO is already a target for nuclear missiles, and have been for decades. In practical terms what has changed? If Russia makes a formal declaration of war against the Ukraine a more likely response would be NATO and other European countries will lose any inhibitions in giving the Ukraine forces what they need, in particular Aircraft. Russia's armed forces are suffering, can you imagine the additional pressure that would come if they lost control of the air? 
State of Emergency declared in the United States as a precautionary measure
Same as (2)
Escalation to nuclear war. In some ways an almost irrelevant question as if it did reach that stage, you and I, and everyone on the planet wouldn't be around as there are no winners

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2022)

Interesting info regarding the Oligarch mentioned up-thread, who criticized the war.

From the NY Times:

_Oleg Y. Tinkov was worth more than $9 billion in November, renowned as one of Russia's few self-made business tycoons after building his fortune outside the energy and minerals industries that were the playgrounds of Russian kleptocracy.
Then, last month, Mr. Tinkov, the founder of one of Russia's biggest banks, criticized the war in Ukraine in a post on Instagram. The next day, he said, President Vladimir V. Putin's administration contacted his executives and threatened to nationalize his bank if it did not cut ties with him. Last week, he sold his 35 percent stake to a Russian mining billionaire in what he describes as a "desperate sale, a fire sale" that was forced on him by the Kremlin.
"I couldn't discuss the price," Mr. Tinkov said. "It was like a hostage — you take what you are offered. I couldn't negotiate."
Mr. Tinkov, 54, spoke to The New York Times by phone on Sunday, from a location he would not disclose, in his first interview since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine. He said he had hired bodyguards after friends with contacts in the Russian security services told him he should fear for his life, and quipped that while he had survived leukemia, perhaps "the Kremlin will kill me."
...
Indeed, Mr. Tinkov claimed that many of his acquaintances in the business and government elite told him privately that they agreed with him, "but they are all afraid."
...
"I've realized that Russia, as a country, no longer exists," Mr. Tinkov said, predicting that Mr. Putin would stay in power a long time. "I believed that the Putin regime was bad. But of course, I had no idea that it would take on such catastrophic scale."
The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.
Tinkoff, the bank Mr. Tinkov started in 2006, denied his characterization of events and said there had been "no threats of any kind against the bank's leadership." The bank, which announced last Thursday that Mr. Tinkov had sold his entire stake in the company to a firm run by Vladimir Potanin, a mining magnate close to Mr. Putin, appeared to be distancing itself from its founder._

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2022)

Hey Admiral Beez,

Not saying I disagree with you about the Ukraine affording a Ticonderoga class, or its suitability for Black Sea operations by Ukraine, but the crew size is ~100 less than the Moskva (ie 400 vs 500).

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Admiral Beez,
> 
> Not saying I disagree with you about the Ukraine affording a Ticonderoga class, or its suitability for Black Sea operations by Ukraine, but the crew size is ~100 less than the Moskva (ie 400 vs 500).


And 100 more crew (roughly) than a Krivak class Frigate.


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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Admiral Beez,
> 
> Not saying I disagree with you about the Ukraine affording a Ticonderoga class, or its suitability for Black Sea operations by Ukraine, but the crew size is ~100 less than the Moskva (ie 400 vs 500).


Okay, but the Moskva wasn't operated by the UAF


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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)

Pity the Independence & Freedom class LCS ships turned out to be such dogs. IF they'd worked as planned, transferring a couple of them might have been good for Ukraine's navy.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay, but the Moskva wasn't operated by the UAF


No, but her sister Slava class, the cruiser Ukraina was supposed to be. Wouldn't that have made for a good match, Slava vs. Slava.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, but her sister Slave class, the cruiser Ukraina was supposed to be. Wouldn't that have made for a good match, Slava vs. Slava.


How Drachnifellian!

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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, but her sister Slave class, the cruiser Ukraina was supposed to be. Wouldn't that have made for a good match, Slava vs. Slava.


Yes I know, but never used and not even finished/ready for operations. - no maybe not a good match

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## ThomasP (May 2, 2022)

I am thinking that if a full capability Ticonderoga became available, the Ukrainian navy would find the man power if they though it was a useful ship for the Black Sea.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Is this data reliable? I'm curious about the possibility of the following
> 
> Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
> State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
> ...


Relax, Zipper, que sera sera. What will be, will be. Nothing you or I can do will change it, so let's maintain an even strain and not get high on anxiety. Make the most of today and deal with tomorrow when it raises its ugly head. My recipe for health and a good life.

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## SaparotRob (May 2, 2022)

If that fails, play with a dog.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I am thinking that if a full capability Ticonderoga became available, the Ukrainian navy would find the man power if they though it was a useful ship for the Black Sea.


I could see Ukraine getting two of Britain's Type 23 frigates as the final dozen leave RN service. But they're lacking any land attack missiles.

Good video channel for updates...

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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I could see Ukraine getting two of Britain's Type 23 frigates as the final dozen leave RN service. But they're lacking any land attack missiles.
> 
> Good video channel for updates...



There are 15 Oliver Hazzard Perry Class Frigates in the Inactive Fleet Storage in Philadelphia. I could see one or three of them being a very good transfer to Ukraine. Poland and Turkey are already operating these frigates so there would be easily tapped local experience.

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## Zipper730 (May 2, 2022)

There are other news articles saying the same thing









Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to ex-FSB chief: report


Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to undergo cancer surgery and temporarily hand over power to a hardliner former federal police chief.




nypost.com

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

The Ukrainian Navy did receive five Island Class cutters from the U.S. Coast Guard (I beleive one of them was sunk in the early days of the war) as well as two to the Georgian Navy, so providing US ships to the Ukraine would not be anything new.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> There are 15 Oliver Hazzard Perry Class Frigates in the Inactive Fleet Storage in Philadelphia. I could see one or three of them being a very good transfer to Ukraine. Poland and Turkey are already operating these frigates so there would be easily tapped local experience.


Nice. Add some TLAM system like Norway's NSM or TLAM-D (Tomahawk with cluster munition) for added bombardment capability and we're all set.

I can see this war solidly strengthening the already warm relationship between Ukraine and Poland. They've come a long way since Polish–Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (May 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> There are 15 Oliver Hazzard Perry Class Frigates in the Inactive Fleet Storage in Philadelphia. I could see one or three of them being a very good transfer to Ukraine. Poland and Turkey are already operating these frigates so there would be easily tapped local experience.



The problem is how do you get them to Ukraine? Since Ukraine is a combatant, I have to assume that the Dardanelles would be closed to them. Perhaps the workaround would be to declare their main operating base as Odesa which should (stress SHOULD) allow their entry to the Black Sea.

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

I beleive the home port has to be officially registered prior to the outbreak of hostilities.

A workaround would be to have either Bulgaria or Romania "purchase" them and then turn around and "donating" them to Ukraine?

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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The problem is how do you get them to Ukraine?


No, I’m referring to postwar. When the UAF needs rebuilding. The last thing Ukraine needs now is naval strength when tanks, mechanized artillery, IFVs, APCs, drones, and infantry weapons are needed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

_
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov says Ukraine is already transitioning to Western-caliber technology, including 155-millimeter artillery. He says the move will ensure Ukraine becomes fully "interoperable" with NATO, which will strengthen the alliance's eastern flank.

In NATO-speak, this means Ukrainians would be able work smoothly with NATO while helping to protect front-line NATO states, such as Poland.

Reznikov wrote on Facebook last week that "tectonic philosophical shifts have occurred" since he took up his position this past fall.

"I will admit — three months ago an achievement like this would have been considered almost impossible," he said. "But thanks to the courage and professionalism of Ukrainian defenders, and the resilience of the Ukrainian people, everything has changed."

He also credited a number of Ukrainian officials — including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and a slew of diplomats — with personally helping with the transition.

While Ukraine is still open to receiving Soviet-style equipment and weapons to strengthen its army in the short term, Reznikov said that "material changes have already taken place."

He noted that Ukraine's armed forces have been gaining expertise in the use of Western weapons for quite some time, though he said the specifics of this work were not being publicized for confidentiality reasons.

"I can provide an example of a recent and very relevant experience: Our artillerymen, who were training on a 155-mm ACS at a test site in one of our partner countries, hit their target with their first shot," he said. "And they then helped our foreign colleagues to improve the computer software that manages this ACS, which impressed them."_









War in Ukraine live updates: Civilians escape from Mariupol; Europe looks for energy alternatives


European energy ministers are meeting in Brussels today to address Russia's move to cut off natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria and to consider a ban on Russian oil. Also, about 100 civilians were evacuated Sunday from a Mariupol steel plant.



www.npr.org





Of course this probably will not have much effect on this war. But it's telling that the concern is to make the Ukrainian military more compatible with NATO standards.

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## MiTasol (May 2, 2022)

Are these barrels a Russian field mod to extend range? If so looks like a good way to cook the crew


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

_
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - Britain said on Monday it would provide 300 million pounds ($375 million) more in military aid to Ukraine, including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around 200 million pounds of assistance so far.

Britain has sent Ukraine more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles and five air defence systems as well as other munitions and explosives since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24, which has destroyed cities and left thousands of people dead or injured._









Britain promises further $375 mln in military aid for Ukraine


Britain said on Monday it would provide 300 million pounds ($375 million) more in military aid to Ukraine, including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around 200 million pounds of assistance so far.




www.reuters.com





Good on 'em. The Starstreak has already gotten a couple of kills, too, from what I've read.

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## Reluctant Poster (May 2, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Are these barrels a Russian field mod to extend range? If so looks like a good way to cook the crew
> View attachment 666654


External tanks are actually common on Soviet tanks going back to the T-34. The fire hazard to the crew isn't really that great, particularly with diesel.

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## wlewisiii (May 2, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Are these barrels a Russian field mod to extend range? If so looks like a good way to cook the crew
> View attachment 666654


They are fuel tanks to increase the range, but diesel is about as safe as any fuel can be. They're designed to be jettisoned in combat. Really, they aren't dangerous at all until hit by something hot enough to ignite diesel. The flash point of diesel is 500-600 degrees F, which is hotter than shrapnel from an HE shell or incendiary bullet.

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## GrauGeist (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, I’m referring to postwar. When the UAF needs rebuilding. The last thing Ukraine needs now is naval strength when tanks, mechanized artillery, IFVs, APCs, drones, and infantry weapons are needed.


If the Ukrainian Navy had a stronger presence in the Black Sea, it would be able to challenge the Russian Navy and draw them away from coastal areas currently under attack.
It would also force the Russians to use land for logistics rather than shipping supplies/troops.

At current, I beleive the Russian Black Sea fleet has about 40 ships...well, a few less, now...


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## vikingBerserker (May 2, 2022)

Top Russian general narrowly escapes Ukrainian attack that killed 200: Report


Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer made a secret trip to the front lines in eastern Ukraine last week and narrowly escaped a Ukrainian attack, according to a report on Sunday.




www.washingtonexaminer.com





Arrived on the April 29th to take personal commend, and at least wounded the next day.

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## Greg Boeser (May 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There's stooping low and then there's digging a tunnel to Australia:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


All is fair in love and "special military excercises." 🤷‍♂️

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the Ukrainian Navy had a stronger presence in the Black Sea, it would be able to challenge the Russian Navy.


For sure, but the Montrose Agreement makes that impossible while the war’s on. But what is possible and likely in the works is to significantly increase the armament of existing Ukrainian warships and requisitioned civilian craft.

I wonder what’s up with the Centaur-class fast assault craft - Wikipedia


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## SaparotRob (May 2, 2022)

The Ukrainian Navy needs a greater ASW capability. How many subs do the Russians have in the Black Sea? Those subs are launching missiles at Odessa. The TB-2 is not much of an ASW asset. I don't think the Ukrainians are ready for P-3s yet.

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The Ukrainian Navy needs a greater ASW capability. How many subs do the Russians have in the Black Sea?


It looks to be seven.









Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Top Russian general narrowly escapes Ukrainian attack that killed 200: Report
> 
> 
> Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer made a secret trip to the front lines in eastern Ukraine last week and narrowly escaped a Ukrainian attack, according to a report on Sunday.
> ...



Your linked article says he wasn't there for the attack, that he'd left early.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> For sure, but the Montrose Agreement makes that impossible while the war’s on. But what is possible and likely in the works is to significantly increase the armament of existing Ukrainian warships and requisitioned civilian craft.
> 
> I wonder what’s up with the Centaur-class fast assault craft - Wikipedia



Zelenskyy has already told the Ukrainian population that they will have to be more like Israel, militarized against surrounding threats.

I bet the Ukrainian Navy -- and all other branches as well -- will have plenty of volunteers after this war is wound up. I bet as well they will receive military aid on the cheap, as well. The biggest problem may be paying the salaries of the fighting forces.

Hostilities will of course have to cease before the Dardanelles is opened up to sell the Ukrainian Navy further units.

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## vikingBerserker (May 2, 2022)

There is another report from a Russian that stated he got hit with shrapnel but did not hit bone. I'll see if I can find it

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It looks to be seven.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The only bright spot here is that they're all _Kilo_-class, meaning they can each only carry four cruise missiles before needing resupply. On the other hand, these subs are extremely quiet when submerged on electric power. They can make 20 kts fully submerged on batteries, but only for a short distance. And Kalibr missiles have sufficient range to stay outside Ukrainian territorial waters while launching a missile barrage, meaning that mine-laying wouldn't be an effective defense in that regard.

Ukraine will need aircraft equipped with MAD, sonobuoys, and homing torpedoes to get at these craft, and as 

 SaparotRob
notes, that's a steep learning curve for the Ukrainian Air Force. Maybe they have some helicopters that are capable of this duty?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 2, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> There is another report from a Russian that stated he got hit with shrapnel but did not hit bone. I'll see if I can find it



Let us cross our fingers.

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## swampyankee (May 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I could see Ukraine getting two of Britain's Type 23 frigates as the final dozen leave RN service. But they're lacking any land attack missiles.


Given that the Black Sea is likely to have somewhat better weather than the north Atlantic, the Type 23 may have enough topweight for some land attack missiles in canisters.

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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Relax, Zipper, que sera sera. What will be, will be. Nothing you or I can do will change it, so let's maintain an even strain and not get high on anxiety. Make the most of today and deal with tomorrow when it raises its ugly head. My recipe for health and a good life.


My coffee machine is flicking a red light right now - and coffee is vital to me, could that be due to cyber warfare?

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## Jagdflieger (May 2, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Top Russian general narrowly escapes Ukrainian attack that killed 200: Report
> 
> 
> Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer made a secret trip to the front lines in eastern Ukraine last week and narrowly escaped a Ukrainian attack, according to a report on Sunday.
> ...


The UAF purposely spared his life, since he is essential to them for leading the continued Russian offensives 
(after-all he made such a great impression especially during the first 4 weeks around Kiev)

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## Admiral Beez (May 2, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Given that the Black Sea is likely to have somewhat better weather than the north Atlantic, the Type 23 may have enough topweight for some land attack missiles in canisters.


A good point on the weather. Maybe a half dozen corvette types is a better low complement, heavy hitting option?

In 2020 Ukraine signed up for two units of the Ada-class corvette - Wikipedia. That will be a good start, with a credible 3” gun for limited NGFS. It’s not a Buyan class, but is competitive.

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## SaparotRob (May 2, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Top Russian general narrowly escapes Ukrainian attack that killed 200: Report
> 
> 
> Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer made a secret trip to the front lines in eastern Ukraine last week and narrowly escaped a Ukrainian attack, according to a report on Sunday.
> ...


I hope the wound doesn't lead to heart trouble.

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## at6 (May 3, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> There are other news articles saying the same thing
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I hope he dies.

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## wlewisiii (May 3, 2022)

at6 said:


> I hope he dies.


Eh, I've only seen this reported in tabloids. I can't take it seriously. NYPest, Daily Fail, Washington Examiner none of them are believable.

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## GrauGeist (May 3, 2022)

He's got something going on, but being a narcissistic megalomaniac, he's not going to go for surgery while he's trying to restore the Soviet Union.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 3, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Are these barrels a Russian field mod to extend range? If so looks like a good way to cook the crew
> View attachment 666654


A punky tank! Look at that crest!


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## J_P_C (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The only bright spot here is that they're all _Kilo_-class, meaning they can each only carry four cruise missiles before needing resupply. On the other hand, these subs are extremely quiet when submerged on electric power. They can make 20 kts fully submerged on batteries, but only for a short distance. And Kalibr missiles have sufficient range to stay outside Ukrainian territorial waters while launching a missile barrage, meaning that mine-laying wouldn't be an effective defense in that regard.
> 
> Ukraine will need aircraft equipped with MAD, sonobuoys, and homing torpedoes to get at these craft, and as
> 
> ...


yes they had Mi-14PL but ASW equipment of this one is really POC

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## SaparotRob (May 3, 2022)

Putler is going under the knife now? A hypochondriac like him not knowing when he needed to schedule surgery? Which dedicated, "committed to the cause" wacko will have the launch codes? Or will it be "Stalin and his terrified doctors" part deux? Maybe he is sick and feels has to act sooner than later. As Thump said; a spook's gonna' spook. 
GrauGeist is right.


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## J_P_C (May 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putler is going under the knife now? A hypochondriac like him not knowing when he needed to schedule surgery? Which dedicated, "committed to the cause" wacko will have the launch codes? Or will it be "Stalin and his terrified doctors" part deux? Maybe he is sick and feels has to act sooner than later. As Thump said; a spook's gonna' spook.
> GrauGeist is right.


historically such event in russia never ends with returning to the status quo, most probable new tsar will surfacing.
By the way - next update from Her Majesty Intelligence






this time i will not be insisting for comments, still digesting last one - i almost forgot how comprehensive and informative are NATO experts delivered assessments. i'm Just working with EASA certification experts for UAV project their documents looks strikingly similar to this delivered by Jagdflieger.

Here is fresh Ukrainian joke i've heard yesterday - sorry is little bit "harsh".
FSB head is standing at the tsar's face
"Sir i have two messages good and bad one.
OK good one first.
gen. Gerasimov has been only wounded in the leg.
What is bad one than?
We are unable to find remaining parts of his body...."

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## ThomasP (May 3, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

Sorry, but for some reason I missed this earlier in your post#5,394.

re "So yes around 120 BTG's constitute around 60% of Russia's BTG trained units. *if you know about the composition and tactical role of a BTG, then you will also realize that these formations are totally self-dependent - meaning as some forum members posted, e.g. 1 BTG =700 men + about the same amount or more in a supportive role, is wrong. since they run their own support, logistic, medical etc. within these approx. 700men strong BTG's. - that is why the Russians developed these BTG formations in the first place.*"

The bold part is incorrect. There is a common misunderstanding about the 'independent' aspect of the current Russian BTG. The BTG is the smallest 'independent' maneuver unit in the Russian army. That means that in terms of command & control they are supposed to be capable of operating for a limited amount of time without as constant supervision and as constant supply/support from higher level assets.

The attached specialty units (like an artillery battery for example) gives them more rapid response to requests for fire support because requests go directly from the line companies to BTG HQ to the artillery battery, as opposed to the larger formation Regiment or Brigade which has 1 or 2 more steps in the division communication network. While they may bring a bit more ready ammunition per gun with them than a regimental artillery unit might have in close proximity, they still have to have a similar ammunition logistics chain - or they run out of ammo. Remember, when they say attached units, we are not talking about giving them an artillery battalion. It is usually 2-4 guns at the most - nothing to laugh at but they still have limited fire endurance.

Another unit that may be attached is an Aviation asset. Again, this unit will be dedicated to the BTG in the command net. The helicopter unit will usually consist of 2-6 attack helicopters operating in reconnaissance and attack, flying out of a rear area base unless there is reason to think more rapid response will be required - in which case the helos might be temporarily forward based in close proximity to the BTG. But, the forward based aviation unit will have only the most basic maintenance support and limited ammunition. They will still have to rely on serious maintenance and resupply from the rear areas. They just won't have to perform the first resupply quite as soon.

The only instance where the examples in limitation I mention above (and several others) might not apply is if the unit does not maneuver in the sense of leaving one area and advancing into another, but instead remains stationary in an attempt to control an area (such as the Russian experience in Afghanistan) in which case more of the support units can be brought to the forward base areas (if they can be kept secure).

The BTG still requires all the normal number of support units or more than a regular unit of similar size, it just won't need it to be in quite as immediate proximity. The same is true for US and most other NATO 'independent' maneuver units.

An extreme example of what we are talking about is the US Army Ranger units. In theory a Ranger unit will deploy with the intent to be reinforced at some point in the near future, or extracted from the area, or make their own way out of the area. The plan is always to equip the unit with at least enough material to accomplish the limited time of the planned mission. But in order to have any confidence that they can operate in this manner they have to constantly maintain a high level of training and competence, including integrating with support units. The last time I had any contact with any Ranger personnel, the average training budget and logistic/support chain for a Ranger battalion exceeded that of the average Armored Brigade. (To be fair, part of the support chain for a Ranger unit includes the transport unit - which could be a fair number of transport aircraft/helos or ship/boat transport - plus aviation assets like attack helicopters and fast movers for CAS.)

Basically, you don't get more for less, You get more by providing more.

Hopefully what I typed makes sense?

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## J_P_C (May 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Jagdflieger,
> 
> Sorry, but for some reason I missed this earlier in your post#5,394.
> 
> ...


i think you have explained everything in detail and in precise manner - there is no magic behind new organization of the russian army or its NATO/Ukrainian adversaries - key are logistic and I2C (intelligence, communication and command) - exactly the fields where russian army have shown greatest incompetence and simultaneously Ukrainians made bigger progress.

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## Jagdflieger (May 3, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> historically such event in russia never ends with returning to the status quo, most probable new tsar will surfacing.
> By the way - next update from Her Majesty Intelligence
> View attachment 666695
> 
> ...



(taken out as it was primarily meant for J_P_C) sorry guys

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## Jagdflieger (May 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hopefully what I typed makes sense?


Makes sense off course - but obviously you did not read my entire post


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## ThomasP (May 3, 2022)

I read your entire post. Then I read it again.

Anyway, some info people might find interesting on the US Army's assessment of the Russian BTG concepts and capabilities.

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## J_P_C (May 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe because my main contractors are EADS and KMW/Rheinmetall ?
> 
> Below is an excerpt of a finalization review - signed at the time by Malaysia's MoD Chief and later Primeminister


well i thought EADS is gone since at least 4 years... now i will not be sleeping until i will find out why Malaysia needs anechoic chamber for RCS measurements.....

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

Putin Cancer Surgery Rumors Swirl Over Alleged Report From Kremlin Insider



Maybe he’ll benefit from better care in the EU. I imagine The Hague has top notch docs.

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## Jagdflieger (May 3, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> well i thought EADS is gone since at least 4 years... now i will not be sleeping until i will find out why Malaysia needs anechoic chamber for RCS measurements.....


Don't worry and keep your resting time, this project wasn't about an anechoic chamber 
In case you had something like this on your mind.


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## Dimlee (May 3, 2022)

One of the aims of the aggressor. When prices go up and there is another food crisis in Africa, we know the reason...
Modern grain elevator complex in Rubizhnoye, Ukraine. Completed in 2020. 30,000 metric tons storage capacity. 3,000 mt per day loading capacity.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putler is going under the knife now? A hypochondriac like him not knowing when he needed to schedule surgery? Which dedicated, "committed to the cause" wacko will have the launch codes? Or will it be "Stalin and his terrified doctors" part deux? Maybe he is sick and feels has to act sooner than later. As Thump said; a spook's gonna' spook.
> GrauGeist is right.



If the report is indeed true, and I share 

 wlewisiii
's skepticism, then FSB boss Patrushev seems to be the front-runner, and he's just as loathsome as Vladdie.

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## buffnut453 (May 3, 2022)

Interesting insights into the ongoing pain of Ukrainians, even in the liberated areas around Kyiv. I suspect we may never find out what happened to many of the "disappeared":









In Ukrainian villages, a desperate wait for news of the missing


Stop in a village in the region west of Kyiv, and you will hear a story of someone who vanished.



www.bbc.com

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## wlewisiii (May 3, 2022)

That's why the Russians brought those mobile crematoriums along. Where they were, no evidence of war crimes in mass graves.

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## GrauGeist (May 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting insights into the ongoing pain of Ukrainians, even in the liberated areas around Kyiv. I suspect we may never find out what happened to many of the "disappeared":
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Many may still be counted as missing due to the confusion of fleeing the area and going to neighboring areas or to Moldova, Romania or Poland, etc.

It may take quite a while to get an accurate headcount of those that either perished and have yet to be recovered from ruins or truly disappeared

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

I remain surprised that Russia has not yet destroyed the rail network linking Poland to eastern Ukraine. That should have been a target on day one, but even now Ukrainian trains are bringing tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.

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## SaparotRob (May 3, 2022)

I just watched some news video of Putin’s Mouthpiece calling for nuclear annihilation of England.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> That's why the Russians brought those mobile crematoriums along. Where they were, no evidence of war crimes in mass graves.




Those crematoria literally bespeak premeditated intent to kill numbers of people, numbers so large that digging graves for them would be inefficient.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I remain surprised that Russia has not yet destroyed the rail network linking Poland to eastern Ukraine. That should have been a target on day one, but even now Ukrainian trains are bringing tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.



One of the initial thrusts should have been due south from Belorus in order to cut the road and rail communications between Lviv and Kyiv. Lacking that (or the manpower to do that, more accurately) they should have applied much more airpower to bridges and railyards.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 3, 2022)

Russian troops stole $5M worth of farm vehicles from a John Deere dealership, which remotely locked the thieves out of the equipment


"When the invaders drove the stolen harvesters to Chechnya, they realized that they could not even turn them on, because the harvesters were locked remotely," a source told CNN.




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (May 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian troops stole $5M worth of farm vehicles from a John Deere dealership, which remotely locked the thieves out of the equipment
> 
> 
> "When the invaders drove the stolen harvesters to Chechnya, they realized that they could not even turn them on, because the harvesters were locked remotely," a source told CNN.
> ...


It seems Ukrainian tractors are better protected than Russian tanks.

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## GTX (May 3, 2022)

Putin's army is threatening these soldiers' families. It's all the motivation they need to keep fighting


Ukrainians on the frontline of Russia's war don't pretend to know what's going through the minds of "the enemy", but if they had to guess, they think their invaders' hearts aren't in it. That's not so for the local soldiers.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian troops stole $5M worth of farm vehicles from a John Deere dealership, which remotely locked the thieves out of the equipment
> 
> 
> "When the invaders drove the stolen harvesters to Chechnya, they realized that they could not even turn them on, because the harvesters were locked remotely," a source told CNN.
> ...


John Deere can remotely brick those.









Ukrainian John Deere tractors stolen by Russia 'bricked'


If true, a good use for DRM?




www.theregister.com

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## Jagdflieger (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> John Deere can remotely brick those.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


From your posted article:
_Ironically, back in 2017, American farmers were importing cracked John Deere software from Ukraine to hack their US-based tractors to repair and modify them._

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> From your posted article:
> _Ironically, back in 2017, American farmers were importing cracked John Deere software from Ukraine to hack their US-based tractors to repair and modify them._


Yeah I saw that too. I suppose the Russians can also crack them. But at about $500k a pop, US$5 million in new JD harvesters isn't many vehicles, maybe a dozen.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> John Deere can remotely brick those.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes, thats what the article I posted said.


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## wlewisiii (May 3, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> One of the initial thrusts should have been due south from Belorus in order to cut the road and rail communications between Lviv and Kyiv. Lacking that (or the manpower to do that, more accurately) they should have applied much more airpower to bridges and railyards.











Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?


Western officials are debating the Kremlin’s calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.




www.nytimes.com

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## wlewisiii (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?
> 
> 
> Western officials are debating the Kremlin’s calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.
> ...


More proof that the Times is long past it's relevancy. Yo, Grey Lady? There is a huge difference between not doing something and NOT BEING ABLE to do something no matter what your both sides writers want to claim.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?
> 
> 
> Western officials are debating the Kremlin’s calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.
> ...



I can't read that, might you summarize or is there another source I can look up?

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I can't read that, might you summarize or is there another source I can look up?


_Russia's War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?_Western officials are debating the Kremlin's calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.

Russia's war against Ukraine has leveled cities, killed tens of thousands of people and forced millions of others from their homes. But quietly, some military analysts and Western officials are asking why the onslaught has not been even worse. Russia could be going after Ukrainian railways, roads and bridges more aggressively to try to stanch the flow of Western weapons to the front line. It could have bombed more of the infrastructure around the capital, Kyiv, to make it harder for Western leaders to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky in shows of unity and resolve. And it could be doing far more to inflict pain on the West, whether by cyberattack, sabotage or more cutoffs of energy exports to Europe.

Part of the reason appears to be sheer incompetence: The opening weeks of the war demonstrated vividly that Russia's military was far less capable than believed before the invasion. But American and European officials also say that President Vladimir V. Putin's tactics in recent weeks have appeared to be remarkably cautious, marked by a slow-moving offensive in eastern Ukraine, a restrained approach to taking out Ukrainian infrastructure and an avoidance of actions that could escalate the conflict with NATO.
The apparent restraint on the ground stands in contrast to the bombast on Russian state television, where Moscow is described as being locked in an existential fight against the West and where the use of nuclear weapons is openly discussed. The issue is whether, as the war grinds on, Mr. Putin will change tack and intensify the war.

That is a particularly urgent question ahead of the Victory Day holiday in Russia next Monday, when Mr. Putin traditionally presides over a grandiose parade marking the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany and gives a militaristic speech. Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, predicted last week that Mr. Putin would use the speech for an official declaration of war and a mass mobilization of the Russian people.

American and European officials say that they have not seen any on-the-ground movements that would show any much larger push with additional troops beginning on May 9 or soon after. Those officials now expect a slower, grinding campaign inside Ukraine. But they do not disagree that Mr. Putin could use the speech to declare a wider war and a deeper national effort to fight it.

For the moment, Mr. Putin appears to be in a military holding pattern, one that is allowing Ukraine to regroup and stock up on Western weaponry. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official called Russia's latest offensive in eastern Ukraine "very cautious, very tepid." In Russia, there is grumbling that the military is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, with the strategy and aims not understood by the public.

"This is a strange, special kind of war," Dmitri Trenin, until recently the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said in a phone interview from outside Moscow. "Russia has set some rather strict limits for itself, and this is not being explained in any way — which raises a lot of questions, first of all, among Russian citizens."

Mr. Trenin is one of the few analysts from his think tank, shuttered last month by the Russian government, who chose to stay in Russia after the war began. He said that he was struggling to explain why the Kremlin was fighting at "less than half strength."

Why isn't Russia bombing more bridges and railway networks, he asked, when they are allowing Ukraine's military to receive more of the West's increasingly lethal weapons deliveries with every passing day? Why are Western leaders — like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday — still able to visit Kyiv safely?
"I find this strange, and I can't explain it," Mr. Trenin said.

To be sure, Russian missile strikes have targeted infrastructure across Ukraine, including an important bridge in the country's southwest on Monday and the runway of the Odesa airport on Saturday. But across the Atlantic, officials and analysts are asking themselves similar questions as Mr. Trenin.

For weeks, officials in Washington have discussed why the Russian military has not been more aggressive in trying to destroy the supply lines that send Western arms shipments into Ukraine. Part of the answer, officials say, is that Ukrainian air defense continues to threaten Russian aircraft, and the deeper Russian planes go into 
Ukraine the greater the chance they are going to be shot down.
Russia has also struggled with its precision munitions — missiles or rockets with guidance systems. Many of those weapons have failed to work properly, and Russian supplies of the weapons are limited. Strikes on rail lines or moving convoys must be very precise to be effective.

Other officials have argued that Moscow is eager to avoid destroying Ukraine's infrastructure too severely, in the possibly misguided hope that it can still take control of the country. Russia would be stuck with a huge rebuilding job if it took over cities devastated by its own bombing.

A senior American defense official said that Mr. Putin may have avoided destroying Ukraine's rail network because he did not want to hurt his own ability to move equipment and troops around the country. The Russians have been more focused on destroying weapon storage areas than the rail network.

American officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private military and intelligence assessments.
Then there is the question of why Russia hasn't hit back harder against the West. The Kremlin narrative is of an existential war with NATO being fought on Ukrainian soil, but Russia is the one taking military losses while the West keeps a safe distance and supplies weapons that kill Russian soldiers.

"A lot of people in this town are asking why they haven't retaliated yet," said Samuel Charap, a former U.S. State Department official in Washington and a Russia analyst with the RAND Corporation. "It seems low probability that the U.S. and its allies will experience no blowback from having put this many Russian soldiers in their graves."

Russia has the tools to do widespread damage to the West. The gas shortages caused by the cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline last year showed the disruption that Russian hacking can inflict on American infrastructure. Berlin has warned that a cutoff of Russian gas could throw the German economy into a recession.
And then there is Moscow's world-leading nuclear arsenal, with an estimated 5,977 warheads: Their catastrophic capability is being hyped in ever-shriller terms in the Russian media.
"You thought you could destroy us with other people's hands and observe from the sidelines from a safe distance?" Sergei Mironov, an outspoken hawk in Russia's Parliament, said on Saturday, claiming that his country's new intercontinental ballistic missilecould destroy Britain in a single strike. "It won't work, gentlemen — you'll have to pay for it all in full!" he added.

Mr. Putin has also warned of retaliation, but he values ambiguity, too. Last year, he said that those crossing a "red line" would face an "asymmetric, fast and tough" response — an indication that the response would come at a time and place of Moscow's choosing.

"Nobody really knows where the red line is," Mr. Charap, the analyst, said. "I don't even think the Russians know, because we are in such uncharted waters."

American and allied officials have debated why Mr. Putin hasn't tried widespread or more damaging cyberstrikes. Some say that Mr. Putin has been effectively deterred. The Russian military, struggling to make gains in Ukraine, cannot handle a wider war with NATO and does not want to give the alliance any excuse to enter the war more directly.

Others argue that a cyberstrike on a NATO country is one of the few cards Mr. Putin can play and that he may be waiting for a later stage in his campaign to do that. While Mr. Putin has been unafraid of escalating the rhetoric, his actions have suggested he does not want to do anything that could prompt a wider war.
"The general sense is that he wants to snatch some sort of victory out of this debacle of his," said the American defense official, suggesting that Mr. Putin was not interested in "borrowing more trouble."
Before the invasion on Feb. 24, Mr. Trenin, of the Carnegie center, predicted that the Ukrainian military would put up a fierce resistance and that Mr. Putin would discover a lack of political support for Russia in Ukraine. On that, Mr. Trenin turned out to be right.

What he was wrong about, Mr. Trenin said, was the information that aides and commanders would provide to Mr. Putin about Russia's capabilities, which turned out to be flawed. Mr. Trenin says he still sees Mr. Putin as fundamentally rational, rather than someone willing to engage in a nuclear war, with a "maniacal determination to destroy mankind.""That would not be a mistake — that would be a total departure from rationality," Mr. Trenin said. "I hope that now I am not wrong."

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## Jabberwocky (May 3, 2022)

Ukrainian and Western sources reporting an increasing likelihood that full declaration of war will happen on May 9th.

Major result would be to give Russia more freedom around mobilisation of troops and resources, particular conscripts and men with recent military experience. If it happens, it's likely that more of the October (2021) conscript intake will be put into service in Ukraine, as could some of the initial April conscript intake - at least those that have completed basic training. Some sources have estimated this will add 75,000 to 130,000 fresh bodies to Russia's manpower pool. 

On the ground, the Russians paused most operations in the east for the first few days of May (likely still dealing with logistics issues). Progress has been "slow and incremental" to quote the UK MoD, mostly limited tactical gains in the advance from Izyum. Ukranian claims about Russian armour losses have slowed noticeably in the last few days, suggesting a much reduced operational tempo.

Ukrainians have counter-attacked east of Kharkiv, enlarging the penetration they established in mid April. Reports are they've driven northwards about 20-30 km along a front anchored by the Siverski Donestk River to the east. Some penetrations are estimated to have gone another 10-15 km deeper into Russian held territory.

If they can continue to drive north, Russian troops in Ukraine west of the Siverski Donestk River risk being cut off from their supporting forces. Potentially, one of the two major road supply routes to Russia's southward/westward drive out of Izyum becomes threatened or cut off. 

On the resupply front - Western heave equipment has started to arrive in numbers. US DoD confirmed 70 of 90 M777 howitzers due to be supplied to Ukraine have already arrived. Germany also reportedly agreed to supply some 155mm artillery.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> _Russia's War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?_Western officials are debating the Kremlin's calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.
> 
> Russia's war against Ukraine has leveled cities, killed tens of thousands of people and forced millions of others from their homes. But quietly, some military analysts and Western officials are asking why the onslaught has not been even worse. Russia could be going after Ukrainian railways, roads and bridges more aggressively to try to stanch the flow of Western weapons to the front line. It could have bombed more of the infrastructure around the capital, Kyiv, to make it harder for Western leaders to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky in shows of unity and resolve. And it could be doing far more to inflict pain on the West, whether by cyberattack, sabotage or more cutoffs of energy exports to Europe.
> 
> ...



Thanks reposting in full, it's very much appreciated.

To answer what I think are key points, all drawn from the article:

1) "[...] President Vladimir V. Putin's [...]"

I'm grateful they put the middle initial in there, lest I confuse this guy with another Vladimir Putin, Villain, Esq. 

2) "That is a particularly urgent question ahead of the Victory Day holiday in Russia next Monday, when Mr. Putin traditionally presides over a grandiose parade marking the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany and gives a militaristic speech. Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, predicted last week that Mr. Putin would use the speech for an official declaration of war and a mass mobilization of the Russian people.

American and European officials say that they have not seen any on-the-ground movements that would show any much larger push with additional troops beginning on May 9 or soon after. Those officials now expect a slower, grinding campaign inside Ukraine."

a) I wonder how much they can afford to put on a "grandiose parade" when they've got troops fighting and dying in the Donbas.

b) What I've read indicates that the redirected offensive is itself bogging down, supporting the slower, grinding reports from Western intel.

3) "Why isn't Russia bombing more bridges and railway networks, he asked, when they are allowing Ukraine's military to receive more of the West's increasingly lethal weapons deliveries with every passing day?"

It's either a lack of ability, a lack of operational art, or Ukrainian defenses working. I'm inclined towards the first, namely that running low on PGMs, the Russians have expended much of this capability on cities rather than key nodes.

4) "Others argue that a cyberstrike on a NATO country is one of the few cards Mr. Putin can play and that he may be waiting for a later stage in his campaign to do that. While Mr. Putin has been unafraid of escalating the rhetoric, his actions have suggested he does not want to do anything that could prompt a wider war.
"The general sense is that he wants to snatch some sort of victory out of this debacle of his," said the American defense official, suggesting that Mr. Putin was not interested in "borrowing more trouble.""

This may well be the case, but it makes me wonder why Russia didn't launch cyberwarfare not only against Ukraine but against the US given their doctrine of hybrid warfare.

At this point, it's too late -- such digital attacks will surely be seen as attacks anyway.

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## at6 (May 3, 2022)

Putass invades and waits nearly 4 months to declare war. Everyone in the Kremlin shoud be shot.


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## buffnut453 (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This may well be the case, but it makes me wonder why Russia didn't launch cyberwarfare not only against Ukraine but against the US given their doctrine of hybrid warfare.
> 
> At this point, it's too late -- such digital attacks will surely be seen as attacks anyway.



Not necessarily. The key challenge with cyber is attribution. It's really tough to positively associate a cyber attack to an entity that has direct connections to the Kremlin. Most attribution statements go along the lines of "with known ties to" rather than explicitly stated "this attack was instigated by General Vlodvlodlvlod." 

Attacks could be directly sponsored/directed by the Kremlin. They could also be from a group of patriotic young Russian who are trying to help their country. They could also be done by criminals who just enjoy screwing with people.

Even if the western nations suffer cyber attacks, that usually doesn't ratchet up alert levels unless there's something else happening, and so the cyber attacks are more of an Indications and Warnings thing rather than a redline that, once crossed, leads to further/escalated conflict.

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## Admiral Beez (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 4) "Others argue that a cyberstrike on a NATO country is one of the few cards Mr. Putin can play and that he may be waiting for a later stage in his campaign to do that.


These Russians seem to forget that the entire internet, code and the digital computer itself was a western invention. Why do the Russians think they can do cyberwar better? To often Russians (and China) see the buffoonery in America and the West and underestimate the latent power under the circus. Don’t the Russians wonder how the UAF with their precision munitions seem to always know the location/timing of Russian generals, warships and airborne assaults.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In Russia, there is grumbling that the military is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, with the strategy and aims not understood by the public.


Deja vu. Only thing missing is the rice paddies. Or maybe the Mujahideen. Take your pick.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> These Russians seem to forget that the entire internet, code and the digital computer itself was a western invention. Why do the Russians think they can do cyberwar better? To often Russians (and China) see the buffoonery in America and the West and underestimate the latent power under the circus. Don’t the Russians wonder how the UAF with their precision munitions seem to always know the location/timing of Russian generals, warships and airborne assaults.



Americans invented the airplane in 1903, but in WWI was reliant upon foreign powers to equip its own air force. 

The British invented the tank in 1915-16, but in WWII were hard put to field anything scary until the Firefly -- which was based on an American design coupled with a British gun.

The Japanese didn't invent the torpedo, but sixty years on they had the best fish in the world.

The fact that one nation invented something doesn't mean that that nation retained any leadership in the tech or doctrine involved in deploying it.

The Russians didn't invent the Internet, but that isn't relevant to how they've learnt to use it.

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## hawkeye2an (May 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I remain surprised that Russia has not yet destroyed the rail network linking Poland to eastern Ukraine. That should have been a target on day one, but even now Ukrainian trains are bringing tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.


This is one of the most basic things you need to accomplish in a war, I guess maybe it is just a Special Military Operation after all.


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## GrauGeist (May 3, 2022)

Well, I have a question:
Just how many Nazis has Putin managed to catch/kill so far, during this fiasco?

Is the world safe yet?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, I have a question:
> Just how many Nazis has Putin managed to catch/kill so far, during this fiasco?
> 
> Is the world safe yet?



When will he round up Mel Gibson? The enquiring minds want to know.

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## Greg Boeser (May 3, 2022)

We will probably never know for sure. But you can rest assured, no innocent Ukrainians have been killed in this special military exercise. They are all Nazis, or Nazi collaborators.


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## GrauGeist (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> When will he round up Mel Gibson? The enquiring minds want to know.


Which one, the blue troublemaker or the Patriot?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> We will probably never know for sure. But you can rest assured, no innocent Ukrainians have been killed in this special military exercise. They are all Nazis, or Nazi collaborators.



I bet in Putin's mind there's no such thing as an "innocent Ukrainian" at all.

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## Greg Boeser (May 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I bet in Putin's mind there's no such thing as an "innocent Ukrainian" at all.


Since I'm sure he considers Ukraine to be an integral part of the _Rodina, _those who oppose his reunification efforts are violent insurrectionists.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> no innocent Ukrainians have been killed


Of course not, that's an abolished species designation. Reclassified as "treasonous Russians".

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## Zipper730 (May 4, 2022)

at6 said:


> I hope he dies.


That's a pretty easy thing to understand. The thing I'm thinking about is: The guy he is replaced with is a hard-liner and one who's the intelligence-chief. Somebody likely to be competent. There's been concerns about cyber-warfare attacks for some time. There's been a few so far, but none have been all-out.

There was the Cyber-Polygon exercise based on the premise of a massive all-out cyber-attack on financial-services, supply-chains, as well as the power-grid.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> That's a pretty easy thing to understand. The thing I'm thinking about is: The guy he is replaced with is a hard-liner and one who's the intelligence-chief. Somebody likely to be competent. There's been concerns about cyber-warfare attacks for some time. There's been a few so far, but none have been all-out.
> 
> There was the Cyber-Polygon exercise based on the premise of a massive all-out cyber-attack on financial-services, supply-chains, as well as the power-grid.


I agree with your assessment.

Is there a 100% traceability towards the initiator of a cyber-attack ?
If so then what would be the difference between Putin ordering a cyber-attack e.g towards the power-grid (including the running operations "cooling process" of a nuke power plant) in
e.g. the UK and lobbing a nuke warhead onto e.b. Birmingham?

The same goes for extensive damage to the e.g financial system - it would be viewed as an attack of Russia onto a NATO country - something he is clearly trying to avoid.
So if cyber-warfare towards NATO is conducted it would be on a rather small scale, without really having a worthy impact.
Using it towards the Ukraine might be a totally different ball-game - but presently the Ukraine has already been reduced to a non self-sustainable country - void of any substantial economic output and financial assets.

Is the EU or NATO going to bring up e.g. 150 Billion $ annually to keep the Ukraine and it's 6 million refugees and 8 million people internally displaced afloat? (Ukraine's GDP in 2021 
was approx. 160Billion $. in 2013 it was approx. 190Billion$, and in 2015 (wartime) it was down to approx. 90Billion $. So far AFAIK the EU's and NATO's actual contribution in military 
and humanitarian/economic assistance since 2014 till today hasn't even reached 20 Billion - and they are already chewing on their fingernails. - There is obviously no money to be made in this war.

That is why IMO, Putin is out for a 2 year or more - attrition war with the Ukraine and NATO, and since mid April this war isn't going to be decided by imminent military capabilities any more. (of which Russia has enough resources to maintain at minimum a status quo). and since May Russia has been increasingly concentrating on attacking the infrastructure of the Ukraine. Financially and economically Russia is prepared and is unlikely to take a hit before end of 2023.

Furthermore there are still Belarus and Serbia who can cause a considerable headache for NATO and the EU. NATO continuing for playing for time will rather work in the Czar's favor - just my thoughts.


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## Zipper730 (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Is there a 100% traceability towards the initiator of a cyber-attack ?


There's all sorts of way to spoof and falsely attribute attacks, and with operatives located outside Russia, one wouldn't really be able to reliably pin-down a physical location like one could pin-down say a flight-path of an aircraft or ballistic missile.


> If so then what would be the difference between Putin ordering a cyber-attack e.g towards the power-grid (including the running operations "cooling process" of a nuke power plant) in e.g. the UK and lobbing a nuke warhead onto e.b. Birmingham?


Fortunately much of the power-grid isn't generally connected to the internet, but there are smart-grids which are vulnerable to this kind of attack. I'm not sure if nuclear reactors are, but if so, the difference would be that nuclear bombs produce a lot more blast and fire damage.

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> There is obviously no money to be made in this war.











War in Ukraine a Windfall for Weapons Industry


Military contractors "will benefit, and in the short term we could be talking about tens of billions of dollars, which is no small thing, even for these big companies," said one analyst.




www.commondreams.org













For Arms Manufacturers, the War in Ukraine Is a Profits Bonanza


Not even 1 percent of NATO military hardware will actually be used to help Ukraine. But the Russian invasion has provided a pretext for massively increased arms spending — and it’s great news for weapons manufacturers’ profits.




www.jacobinmag.com

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## Zipper730 (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> War in Ukraine a Windfall for Weapons Industry
> 
> 
> Military contractors "will benefit, and in the short term we could be talking about tens of billions of dollars, which is no small thing, even for these big companies," said one analyst.
> ...


War has historically proven quite lucrative for a small number while being horrifically costly for most.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Americans invented the airplane in 1903, but in WWI was reliant upon foreign powers to equip its own air force.
> 
> The British invented the tank in 1915-16, but in WWII were hard put to field anything scary until the Firefly -- which was based on an American design coupled with a British gun.
> 
> ...




A
 Admiral Beez
, how is this post "creative"? The only thing I've done is reiterate facts. What does this "creative" rating you've given it mean?

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> War in Ukraine a Windfall for Weapons Industry
> 
> 
> Military contractors "will benefit, and in the short term we could be talking about tens of billions of dollars, which is no small thing, even for these big companies," said one analyst.
> ...


Money paid or spend on military hardware via statedebts (or credits) doesn't produce a profit for a country - for weapons manufactures yes, but even for that the Ukraine can't pay for it themselves like e.g. Saudi Arabia or the UAE having a war with Yemen. (So the latter can indeed be seen as a profitable war)

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Russia is now hitting the rail infrastructure and the substations that power the trains. Clearly counter battery capability is needed ASAP.



https://www.unian.info/society/ukraine-defenses-army-receives-newest-zoopark-3-counterbattery-radar-11395621.html

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Fortunately much of the power-grid isn't generally connected to the internet, but there are smart-grids which are vulnerable to this kind of attack. I'm not sure if nuclear reactors are, but if so, the difference would be that nuclear bombs produce a lot more blast and fire damage.


Sure, but that isn't the issue. Radiation leaking at near Chernobyl style from a EU based Nuke power-plant might be enough to render that particular or neighboring EU countries
of their will to keep supporting the Ukraine. So traceability of a cyber attack is essential towards such a scenario.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia is now hitting the rail infrastructure and the substations that power the trains. Clearly counter battery capability is needed ASAP.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.unian.info/society/ukraine-defenses-army-receives-newest-zoopark-3-counterbattery-radar-11395621.html


Yes, strange indeed that latest since March there doesn't seem to be a valid Patriot ability been given (supplied) to Ukraine.

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## J_P_C (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Sure, but that isn't the issue. Radiation leaking at near Chernobyl style from a EU based Nuke power-plant might be enough to render that particular or neighboring EU countries
> of their will to keep supporting the Ukraine. So traceability of a cyber attack is essential towards such a scenario.


clearly you have very limited clue about security of nuclear installations. All of its critical systems are designed to be be completly separated from internet and immune to the cyberattacks untill you will drive your tank to the control room and hook up to the powerplant's computers from there. Even so it will take you weeks to communicate with control nodes not mentioning breaching firewalls. I can assure you that dropping FAB1500 on the reactor cooling system building is much easier way to "organize" catastrphy.

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

When Putin dreams…

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> .....clearly you have very limited clue about security of nuclear installations.....


Yes I would certainly admit to this - that is why I am trying to find out about the 'feasibility" of cyber attacks, especially in regards to nuke plant operators in the former Eastern Block countries.

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## J_P_C (May 4, 2022)

the


Jagdflieger said:


> Yes I would certainly admit to this - that is why I am trying to find out about the 'feasibility" of cyber attacks, especially in regards to nuke plant operators in the former Eastern Block countries.


there is not much differwence between security level of nuclear installations in UK, France or for example Slovakia or Hungary - they have to conform to the exactly the same international regulations and standards.

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## ARTESH (May 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I suspect we may never find out what happened to many of the "disappeared"


Maybe not all of them, but at least half of them, can be found in "Black Market", if you get it!!!


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

_
The United Kingdom's defense ministry said on Wednesday that Russia is "highly likely" to try to capture the Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, effectively consolidating Moscow's control of the Donbas region. 

Should that happen, Russia would have what the ministry called in its intelligence update a "staging point for their efforts to cut-off Ukrainian forces in the region."

At least 21 civilians were left dead after attacks in the eastern Donbas region, according to The Associated Press, which cited Ukrainian officials. 

That death toll marks the highest known fatalities since at least 59 people were killed on April 8 after a missile struck a railway station in Kramatorsk, the news service noted._









Russia ‘highly likely’ to move to consolidate control of northeastern Donbas: UK


The United Kingdom’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that Russia is “highly likely” to try to capture the Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, effectively consolidating Moscow&#8217…




thehill.com





...and even if the Russians can't encircle and destroy the Ukrainian forces there, securing the Donbas could perhaps give Russia the fig-leaf it desperately needs to get out of the fight.

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...and even if the Russians can't encircle and destroy the Ukrainian forces there, securing the Donbas could perhaps give Russia the fig-leaf it desperately needs to get out of the fight.


My worry is that if Russia calls a unilateral ceasefire that Ukraine will forever lose the opportunity to recapture the Donbas region. Will the West continue to send weapons and money for Ukraine to keep fighting if the Russians have stood down? I fear there's a great betrayal of Ukraine in the works, akin to Yalta in 1945 and before.









Western betrayal - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My worry is that if Russia calls a unilateral ceasefire that Ukraine will forever lose the opportunity to recapture the Donbas region. Will the West continue to send weapons and money for Ukraine to keep fighting if the Russians have stood down? I fear there's a great betrayal of Ukraine in the works, akin to Yalta in 1945 and before.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Would you mind answering the question I asked? What do you mean when you called one of my points "creative"?

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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Yes I would certainly admit to this - that is why I am trying to find out about the 'feasibility" of cyber attacks, especially in regards to nuke plant operators in the former Eastern Block countries.



The key word is "access." In order to attack via cyber mechanisms, the hacker must be able to reach the targeted system via some external means. To use a stupid example, if I buy a computer but never connect it to the internet, and I never put any third-party software or files on there (i.e. the only software or data comes from me personally) then my computer can't be the target of a cyber attack because there's no way for a hacker to access my system. I could even have a local wired network with multiple computers but if none of them have external access, then they can't be targeted via cyber means.

If there's no external access, then the only way to deliver a cyber attack to that system is by physically getting a human being into my facility, breaking all my username and password protections, and successfully uploading a file that I didn't create. While that's often seen in movies, it's incredibly tough to do in reality.

The one caveat for external human access is insider threats. The larger the system/network, the greater the risk that an authorized system user could inject malicious code. A disaffected user, or a vulnerable user susceptible to bribes (financial or otherwise), could provide access to a foreign nation, which is why Governments put a lot of time in layered mechanisms to prevent it such as human security (background checks etc), leadership/management (ensuring staff aren't disaffected/vulnerable), access control (limiting users to specific functions so a general user can't upload malicious code), and monitoring (ensuring staff aren't alone when they access a system, and ensuring all actions are logged and alerted in real time).

Cyber isn't a silver bullet. It takes a lot of time and hard work to develop access...and after all that work, access can disappear in the blink of an eye if the vulnerability in the target system is identified and closed off (e.g. regular software updates to close security holes, firing (or otherwise removing) possible insider threats, etc).

Bottom line...if the nuclear computer control systems do not have external access, and the staff are patriotic, loyal and largely incorrupt, then the systems are pretty much unhackable.

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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> We will probably never know for sure. But you can rest assured, no innocent Ukrainians have been killed in this special military exercise. They are all Nazis, or Nazi collaborators.



Yes, even the 2 known Holocaust survivors who were killed.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The key word is "access." In order to attack via cyber mechanisms, the hacker must be able to reach the targeted system via some external means. To use a stupid example, if I buy a computer but never connect it to the internet, and I never put any third-party software or files on there (i.e. the only software or data comes from me personally) then my computer can't be the target of a cyber attack because there's no way for a hacker to access my system. I could even have a local wired network with multiple computers but if none of them have external access, then they can't be targeted via cyber means.
> 
> If there's no external access, then the only way to deliver a cyber attack to that system is by physically getting a human being into my facility, breaking all my username and password protections, and successfully uploading a file that I didn't create. While that's often seen in movies, it's incredibly tough to do in reality.
> 
> ...


Off course access is the key-word, and this seems to be possible in many way's, e.g was done IIRC in 2017 at a German nuclear plant via virus infected/corrupted USB sticks.
Also the new trend regarding the use of interconnected smart phones and blue-tooth poses additional new threats.
According to paper regulations things are pretty tight - but reality seems to be at various different levels in many countries in contra to the theoretical security measures.

I for myself "unintentionally" and also intentionally have brought my Mobil into highly restricted areas into the MoD's of several countries.
As for actually observed safety protocols in many countries - I wouldn't be willing to place my hand into the fire.

I can't open the following link, so I wouldn't know about the articles relevant date.





Belgium's Nuclear Plants Face Threat of Cyber-attack: EU Counter-terror Chief | SecurityWeek.Com


Belgium's network of nuclear power plants and other major infrastructure face the threat of a cyber-attack over the next five years, the European Union's counter-terror chief said.




www.securityweek.com


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## Wildcat (May 4, 2022)

Re cyber attacks. Let's just hope nuclear power plants have taken the lessons of Stuxnet to heart and that all vital software is airtight from the internet. The problem with cyber, however, is that software, network architecture, and cyber security all rely on one thing - human input. We all know humans make mistakes, are lazy or their skills simply aren't up to the task. This is the weakness cyber-criminals probe for.

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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Re cyber attacks. Let's just hope nuclear power plants have taken the lessons of Stuxnet to heart and that all vital software is airtight from the internet. The problem with cyber, however, is that software, network architecture, and cyber security all rely on one thing - human input. We all know humans make mistakes, are lazy or their skills simply aren't up to the task. This is the weakness cyber-criminals probe for.



Going back to my earlier post, while cyber is generally not seen as escalatory, I think attacking nuclear facilities would definitely cross a line and would lead to a response. I think any attack against a western nuclear facility would result in NATO Article 5, regardless of whether the attack could be directly attributed to the Kremlin.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I can't open the following link, so I wouldn't know about the articles relevant date.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Here's the article for you, unedited:

_
*Belgium's network of nuclear power plants and other major infrastructure face the threat of a cyber-attack over the next five years, the European Union's counter-terror chief said in an interview published Saturday.*

"I would not be surprised if there was an attempt in the next five years to use the Internet to commit an attack," Gilles de Kerchove told daily La Libre Belgique.

"It would take the form of entering the SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition), which is the nerve centre of a nuclear power plant, a dam, air traffic control centre or railroad switching station," he added.

His concerns come as Belgium is on high alert following Tuesday's suicide bombings at Brussels airport and aboard a metro train that killed 31 people and injured some 300.

Belgium's neighbors have raised concerns over the country's creaking nuclear plants for some time, after a series of problems ranging from leaks to cracks and an unsolved sabotage incident.

Doel 1, the country's oldest reactor, was originally shuttered in February 2015 under a law calling for the country's gradual phasing out of nuclear power, but the government then restarted it under an extension deal.

According to reports, a security guard at a Belgian nuclear power plant was murdered Thursday and his access badge stolen. Officials were not immediately available to comment.

These reports follow the discovery by investigators last year of surveillance footage of a Belgian nuclear plant official in the flat of a suspect linked to the Brussels and Paris attacks._

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Going back to my earlier post, while cyber is generally not seen as escalatory....


IDK, I would expect the West to hit Russia's internet accessible systems pretty hard in response.

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## WARSPITER (May 4, 2022)

Anonymous have been hacking Russian systems and causing disruptions (trains etc) in response to invasion of Ukraine.
They have also stated they will not stop until Russia gets out.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here's the article for you, unedited:
> 
> 
> _*Belgium's network of nuclear power plants and other major infrastructure face the threat of a cyber-attack over the next five years, the European Union's counter-terror chief said in an interview published Saturday.*
> ...


Hey thanks a lot, so it seems this article is from 2016, which still might make the issue relevant.

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## SaparotRob (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> My worry is that if Russia calls a unilateral ceasefire that Ukraine will forever lose the opportunity to recapture the Donbas region. Will the West continue to send weapons and money for Ukraine to keep fighting if the Russians have stood down? I fear there's a great betrayal of Ukraine in the works, akin to Yalta in 1945 and before.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Some “talking head” brought this up a few weeks ago. You just can’t say a war is over, especially if you started it. The guy you attacked might have something to say about it.

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## Dimlee (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I remain surprised that Russia has not yet destroyed the rail network linking Poland to eastern Ukraine. That should have been a target on day one, but even now Ukrainian trains are bringing tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.


They do hit the rail network on the regular basis. Last week Odesa region, yesterday Lviv region, about an hour ago - Dnipro city. Usual targets are hubs, terminals, and rail bridges.

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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, I would expect the West to hit Russia's internet accessible systems pretty hard in response.



Which is why Russia took the extraordinary step a few years ago to try and firewall the Russian internet off from the rest of the world. It won't be an impervious firewall but it shows Russia is aware of the risk and wants to limit the exposure. 

One added side-effect of the firewall is that it makes it much easier to stop Western "propaganda" corrupting the noble, righteous Russian mind.

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## Dimlee (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> _Russia's War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?_Western officials are debating the Kremlin's calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.
> 
> Russia's war against Ukraine has leveled cities, killed tens of thousands of people and forced millions of others from their homes. But quietly, some military analysts and Western officials are asking why the onslaught has not been even worse. Russia could be going after Ukrainian railways, roads and bridges more aggressively to try to stanch the flow of Western weapons to the front line. It could have bombed more of the infrastructure around the capital, Kyiv, to make it harder for Western leaders to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky in shows of unity and resolve. And it could be doing far more to inflict pain on the West, whether by cyberattack, sabotage or more cutoffs of energy exports to Europe.
> 
> ...


Mr.Trenin was a Kremlin's mouthpiece for many years, disguised as an "independent expert". He ruined his reputation a long time ago.
The premise about "restraint" is complete BS. Restraint - as in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Bucha, Borodyanka, in numerous (10-30 cruise missiles at once) raids all over the territory, up to the NATO border?
Trenin says: _"Why isn't Russia bombing more bridges and railway networks"_. Damned lies. Such bombings never stopped.
But damaged rail lines are being restored quickly.
_"He said that he was struggling to explain why the Kremlin was fighting at "less than half strength.""_ Another BS.
It's a typical propaganda trick - to spread the message about "fighting with one hand tied" as an explanation of own failures. Some Russian "military experts" now talk about the Vietnam war and US self imposed restrictions. So typical as well. The hatred of the USA mixed with envy and with an eternal desire to copy at least something from those damned Americans.
About alleged "restraint", very good video from Perun:

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## RogerdeLluria (May 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, I have a question:
> Just how many Nazis has Putin managed to catch/kill so far, during this fiasco?
> 
> Is the world safe yet?


Hope this answers your question.

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## Dimlee (May 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This may well be the case, but it makes me wonder why Russia didn't launch cyberwarfare not only against Ukraine but against the US given their doctrine of hybrid warfare.


Against Ukraine - they did. The number of cyberattacks was on the rise in 2021 and during last winter. But the defence was more robust than during the not-Petya attack, Cooperation with NSA and with major software players such as Microsoft helped.

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## Dimlee (May 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Hope this answers your question.
> 
> View attachment 666909


The map is not complete yet. 
Foreign minister Molotoff Ribbentrop Lavrov discovered Nazi supporters in Israel and spoke about the Jewish origins of Adolf Hitler.








Israel outrage at Sergei Lavrov's claim that Hitler was part Jewish


The Russian foreign minister's claim that Hitler "had Jewish blood" is denounced as unforgiveable.



www.bbc.com












Russia doubles down, says Israel 'supports neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine'


***




www.haaretz.com

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## GrauGeist (May 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The map is not complete yet.
> Foreign minister Molotoff Ribbentrop Lavrov discovered Nazi supporters in Israel and spoke about the Jewish origins of Adolf Hitler.
> 
> 
> ...

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## GTX (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why do the Russians think they can do cyberwar better?


Because they tend to do just that. Also, remember that not all cyberwar is about hacking. Disinformation campaigns and getting people to turn against their own side or believe fake news is part of it too. In this respect, Russia (and China) have been conducting cyberwar activities for many years, at least back to 2015.

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## GTX (May 4, 2022)

Speaking of which:


https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/analysts-reveal-alarming-amount-of-prorussia-content-is-originating-in-china/news-story/783163c74cdf432c09229b20895ba7ff

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> They do hit the rail network on the regular basis. Last week Odesa region, yesterday Lviv region, about an hour ago - Dnipro city. Usual targets are hubs, terminals, and rail bridges.


Hopefully the Ukrainians were warned or expected this and have prepared to repair the tracks and reroute as needed. I would not be surprised if volunteer civilian railway crews from Poland and elsewhere are helping to put things to rights.

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## Glider (May 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> clearly you have very limited clue about security of nuclear installations. All of its critical systems are designed to be be completly separated from internet and immune to the cyberattacks untill you will drive your tank to the control room and hook up to the powerplant's computers from there. Even so it will take you weeks to communicate with control nodes not mentioning breaching firewalls. I can assure you that dropping FAB1500 on the reactor cooling system building is much easier way to "organize" catastrphy.


In addition there are contingency plans. I don't know about other countries but the UK have a number of plans to protect and / or limit the damage that can be done to the power grid. For instance if all the power stations in the UK were some how to be turned off, there are plans and equipment in place for all the power stations to be on line within 48 hours. They do this by nominating a number of stations as 'self starter stations'. These are equipped with gas turbine engines (Olympus engines at the station my son worked at). These can start the home station and these can then be linked to other power stations and so on until they are all up and running. Some self starter stations are Hydro but the principle is the same, they start themselves and then power the rest.
The grid itself can be split into areas to limit damage and then re-joined to make a complete system. Critical systems for infrastructure such as as banks, other big business's, defence, government, departments, police etc have back up sites for the data, which can be cold start or hot start sites. On the one I worked on, the site was linked to another site. Both sites had twice the power needed to run the site and could run the other site if needed. In addition to this both sites had power stations that were switched off and could be switched on if the main power network was down and again each site could run both sites if needed. As a final back up both sites could run for 48 hours using battery power and all the systems and data needed for the smooth running of the organisations was held at both sites.

Does this mean that a cyber attack couldn't do damage, clearly no, only a fool would give that guarantee. But when you consider the above plus the difficulty in knocking out Gas, Solar, Wind, Coal, and Nuclear sites all at the same time, its as safe as you are likely to get.

Its also worth pointing out that there have been a few days in the UK where all the power was generated by renewables, which give an extra layer of protection should some stations be knocked out.

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## J_P_C (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Off course access is the key-word, and this seems to be possible in many way's, e.g was done IIRC in 2017 at a German nuclear plant via virus infected/corrupted USB sticks.
> Also the new trend regarding the use of interconnected smart phones and blue-tooth poses additional new threats.
> According to paper regulations things are pretty tight - but reality seems to be at various different levels in many countries in contra to the theoretical security measures.
> 
> ...


Until your post i've wondered why German government is so pushy with closing it's nuclear power plants... but now it become quite clear. I have some doubts in relation to your professional level - you have intentionally breached security regulations and you are announcing this publicly - well... don't you think something is wrong here?

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## RogerdeLluria (May 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The map is not complete yet.
> Foreign minister Molotoff Ribbentrop Lavrov discovered Nazi supporters in Israel and spoke about the Jewish origins of Adolf Hitler.
> 
> 
> ...


Yep, Kremlin making friends all over the world. Seems that Israel is a bit pissed off and has changed its stance vs Ukraine.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...rd-sending-defensive-military-aid-to-ukraine/https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-705695

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Yep, Kremlin making friends all over the world. Seems that Israel is a bit pissed off and has changed its stance vs Ukraine.


Goodness, this is becoming the known universe vs. The Borg. They attempted to assimilate the Ukrainians and get a whooping instead. I guess resistance is not futile.

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## GTX (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness, this is becoming *the known universe* vs. The Borg.


Not quite:






And for those countries supplying military equipment to Ukraine:

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> Not quite:


True. Africa is notably out. Too bad, as there must be hundreds of T-72 tanks in Africa. And South Africa has some very suitable, low tech yet effective kit. That aside, when your actions can unite an otherwise squabbling NATO and bring the likes of China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Vietnam, Argentina, Japan and even the Kiwis onto your enemy’s side, well you might have overstepped.









List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## SaparotRob (May 4, 2022)

Remember, there's a Gamma Quadrant too.

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## Greg Boeser (May 4, 2022)

Does the red color represent involuntary agricultural transfers?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

lol, I can add 

 hawkeye2an
to the _happy to add an iconic response but apparently uncomfortable with entering into discussion _file. Six, count 'em six, "creatives" and *not one* written reply is obvious trollery.

You do you, brotha. Let me know if you want to discuss things, and if not, well, there's the round file and enjoy the silence.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> Because they tend to do just that. Also, remember that not all cyberwar is about hacking. Disinformation campaigns and getting people to turn against their own side or believe fake news is part of it too. In this respect, Russia (and China) have been conducting cyberwar activities for many years, at least back to 2015.



Hybrid warfare is in my opinion a useful concept. I'm just surprised that Russia, which pretty much codified the ideas of it, has done so poorly in execution.


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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Until your post i've wondered why German government is so pushy with closing it's nuclear power plants... but now it become quite clear. I have some doubts in relation to your professional level - you have intentionally breached security regulations and you are announcing this publicly - well... don't you think something is wrong here?


There is IMO nothing wrong with hinting or even stating certain issues that are well known within certain communities. This is not "007" stuff, it's general knowledge. And did I state any countries names? 
What I find questionable is the issue of e.g. you previously stating (that someone has obviously no clue) 
So I can answer - yes I admit I don't, or should I forward exact information as to how it is done (e.g. via a publicly printed issue such as the German nuclear plant incident) or actual insider information to proof a point? or naming sources in order to be judged more viable by those asking?
I hope that we are a bit more clear now - regards
Jagdflieger


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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Would you mind answering the question I asked? What do you mean when you called one of my points "creative"?


Creative, *2. *resulting from originality of thought; imaginative. I thought it was insightful to compare the invention of the internet to the invention and subsequent proliferation of earlier technological innovations. Do you ask why others click Winner or Like after your posts? Or is the Creative button a singular trigger for you? I meant no cheekiness, I thought your post was creative in the above sense. But really, what others think really shouldn‘t be that important. Who cares what they liked or thought was “winner” worthy?

Now, let’s bring ourselves back on topic. Interestingly, Russia is doubling down on their connecting Israel and Ukrainian’s supposed Nazi regime.









Kremlin again targets Israel with claims of supporting ‘neo-Nazi regime’ in Ukraine


The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Israel of supporting a “neo-Nazi regime” in Ukraine Tuesday, a day after Israel’s chief diplomat demanded an apology from his counterpart Sergey Lavrov fo…




nypost.com

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## XBe02Drvr (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Creative, *2. *resulting from originality of thought; imaginative. I thought it was insightful to compare the invention of the internet to the invention and subsequent proliferation of earlier technological innovations.


And then there are those who take the "Creative" icon to imply "created out of whole cloth with no supporting logic", which is why I try to avoid using it on this forum, even when it might be warranted.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> In addition there are contingency plans. I don't know about other countries but the UK have a number of plans to protect and / or limit the damage......
> 
> Does this mean that a cyber attack couldn't do damage, clearly no, only a fool would give that guarantee. But when you consider the above plus the difficulty in knocking out Gas, Solar, Wind, Coal, and Nuclear sites all at the same time, its as safe as you are likely to get.
> 
> Its also worth pointing out that there have been a few days in the UK where all the power was generated by renewables, which give an extra layer of protection should some stations be knocked out.


Please don't get me wrong, but the "common term" cyber warfare isn't simply about hacking or causing a serious incident (off course one can't simply out-rule the latter)
Cyber warfare encompasses all kind of interwoven levels/layers in order to create difficulties in whatever regards - including disinformation and resulting panic.

Simply disrupting or interfering in the operation of e.g. a nuke power plant (which IMO is quite a realistic scenario) and in parallel lancing/leaking information to the media of such an "incident" can and will cause the political landscape and decision making process of many EU countries to be "unbalanced". 

E.g. the Green party in Germany was nowhere in view of it's political agenda in regards to "environment" or "rather red then dead" of being a political force to be reckoned with - until Chernobyl. But I will leave it up to the forum members to decide if their today's political force is evaluated as being rather positive or negative. But thanks to the media they are a political force that meanwhile beholds up to 40% of the populations support. 

I do hope that you get my meaning - because I hate to get myself into politics


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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Please don't get me wrong, but the "common term" cyber warfare isn't simply about hacking or causing a serious incident (off course one can't simply out-rule the latter)
> Cyber warfare encompasses all kind of interwoven levels/layers in order to create difficulties in whatever regards - including disinformation and resulting panic.
> 
> Simply disrupting or interfering in the operation of e.g. a nuke power plant (which IMO is quite a realistic scenario) and in parallel lancing/leaking information to the media of such an "incident" can and will cause the political landscape and decision making process of many EU countries to be "unbalanced".



Well, that rather depends on whose doctrine you're reading or adhering to. In the US, there's Defensive Cyber Operations to protect friendly networks and Offensive Cyber Operations which directly attack adversary networks. 

Disinformation falls under Information Operations. Just because the IO message is delivered via the internet does not make it a cyber operation. 

Other countries, of course, have different definitions and doctrine, so you can't make a blanket statement about what "cyber warfare" includes or doesn't include. US doctrine on cyber operations (Joint Publication 3-12...it's available online) does not even include the term "cyber warfare."

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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

U.S. intelligence is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals, officials say.
WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.

Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.

The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine. That intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow's secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of U.S. assistance.
The United States has focused on providing the location and other details about the Russian military's mobile headquarters, which relocate frequently. Ukrainian officials have combined that geographic information with their own intelligence — including intercepted communications that alert the Ukrainian military to the presence of senior Russian officers — to conduct artillery strikes and other attacks that have killed Russian officers.
The intelligence sharing is part of a stepped-up flow in U.S. assistance that includes heavier weapons and tens of billions in aid, demonstrating how quickly the early American restraints on support for Ukraine have shifted as the war enters a new stage that could play out over months.
U.S. intelligence support to the Ukrainians has had a decisive effect on the battlefield, confirming targets identified by the Ukrainian military and pointing it to new targets. The flow of actionable intelligence on the movement of Russian troops that America has given Ukraine has few precedents.
Since failing to advance on Kyiv, the capital, in the early part of the war, Russia has tried to regroup, with a more concentrated push in eastern Ukraine that so far has moved slowly and unevenly.
Officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss details of the classified intelligence being shared with Ukraine.
The administration has sought to keep much of the battlefield intelligence secret, out of fear it will be seen as an escalation and provoke President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia into a wider war. American officials would not describe how they have acquired information on Russian troop headquarters, for fear of endangering their methods of collection. But throughout the war, the U.S. intelligence agencies have used a variety of sources, including classified and commercial satellites, to trace Russian troop movements.
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III went so far as to say last month that "we want to see Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine."
Asked about the intelligence being provided to the Ukrainians, John F. Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said that "we will not speak to the details of that information." But he acknowledged that the United States provides "Ukraine with information and intelligence that they can use to defend themselves."
After this article published, Adrienne Watson, a National Security Council spokeswoman, said in a statement that the battlefield intelligence was not provided to the Ukrainians "with the intent to kill Russian generals."
Not all the strikes have been carried out with American intelligence. A strike over the weekend at a location in eastern Ukraine where Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer, had visited was not aided by American intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials. The United States prohibits itself from providing intelligence about the most senior Russian leaders, officials said.
Image





President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia's highest-ranking uniformed officer. Ukrainians struck a location where Gen. Gerasimov had visited, acting on their intelligence.Credit...Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse
But American intelligence was critical in the deaths of other generals, officials acknowledged.
The United States routinely provides information about the movement of Russian troops and equipment, and helps Ukraine confirm the location of critical targets. Other NATO allies also give real-time intelligence to the Ukrainian military.
The Biden administration is also supplying new weaponry that should improve Ukraine's ability to target senior Russian officers. The smaller version of the Switchblade drone, which is now arriving on the battlefield, can be used to identify and kill individual soldiers, and could take out a general sitting in a vehicle or giving orders on a front line.
American officials have acknowledged publicly that the United States began giving Ukraine actionable intelligence in the run-up to Russia's invasion on Feb. 24. Ahead of the invasion, for example, U.S. intelligence agencies warned of an impending attack on the Hostomel airport north of Kyiv. That allowed Ukraine to strengthen its defenses. Russian airborne forces were ultimately unable to hold the airfield.
While the information the United States has provided Ukraine has proved valuable, Russian generals have often left themselves exposed to electronic eavesdropping by speaking over unsecure phones and radios, current and former American military officials said.
"It shows poor discipline, lack of experience, arrogance and failure to appreciate Ukrainian capabilities," said Frederick B. Hodges, the former top U.S. Army commander in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. "It is not hard to geo-locate someone on a phone talking in the clear."
Russian military tactics have also left senior generals vulnerable. A centralized, top-down command hierarchy gives decision-making authority only to the highest levels — compared to the more decentralized American structure that pushes many battlefield decisions to senior enlisted personnel and junior officers — forcing Russian generals to make risky trips to the front lines to resolve logistical and operational issues.
"When there are problems, the general officers have to go sort it out," said General Hodges.
Although the administration remains wary of inflaming Mr. Putin to the point that he further escalates his attacks — President Biden has said he will not send American troops to Ukraine or establish a "no-fly zone" there — current and former officials said the White House finds some value in warning Russia that Ukraine has the weight of the United States and NATO behind it.
Image




Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III went so far as to say last month that "we want to see Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine."Credit...Michael A. McCoy for The New York Times
Some European officials believe, despite Mr. Putin's rhetoric that Russia is battling NATO and the West, he has so far been deterred from starting a wider war. American officials are less certain, and have been debating for weeks why Mr. Putin has not done more to escalate the conflict.
Officials said Moscow has its own calculations to weigh, including whether it can handle a bigger war, particularly one that would allow NATO to invoke its mutual defense charter or enter the war more directly.
"Clearly, we want the Russians to know on some level that we are helping the Ukrainians to this extent, and we will continue to do so," said Evelyn Farkas, the former top Defense Department official for Russia and Ukraine in the Obama administration. "We will give them everything they need to win, and we're not afraid of Vladimir Putin's reaction to that. We won't be self-deterred."
But intelligence sharing is considered a safe form of help because it is invisible, or, at least, deniable. American intelligence has given secret information to Ukraine in a wide range of areas, from Russian troop movements to targeting data, officials said.
Last month, the United States increased the flow of intelligence to Ukraine about Russian forces in the Donbas and Crimea, as Kyiv's military forces prepared to defend against a renewed offensive by Moscow in eastern Ukraine, U.S. officials said.
"There's a significant amount of intelligence flowing to Ukraine from the United States," Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Senate panel on Tuesday. "We have opened up the pipes."

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> ....Disinformation falls under Information Operations. Just because the IO message is delivered via the internet does not make it a cyber operation.....


Well - certain disinformation and cyber-operations e.g in country X are not run by separate government "institutions" - just separate but coordinated departments. 
Which in some "other" countries does sometimes lead to the issues that different services aren't in the full picture even with each other.


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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> U.S. intelligence is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals, officials say.
> WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.
> 
> Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.
> ...


This and other target valued information is what pees off the Czar the most - much more then those weapon deliveries.

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## wlewisiii (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> U.S. intelligence is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals, officials say.
> WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.
> 
> Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.


I'm curious about if this was released intentionally to let the Russians (as an aside, I keep wanting to write Soviets ) know they can run but can't hide or if someone spilled the beans on something they'd have rather kept under wraps. With the poor state of the mass media in the US it's hard to know either way.

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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I'm curious about if this was released intentionally to let the Russians (as an aside, I keep wanting to write Soviets ) know they can run but can't hide or if someone spilled the beans on something they'd have rather kept under wraps. With the poor state of the mass media in the US it's hard to know either way.


Anything the Russians and the "informed" circles of other countries are both aware off - is legit to be published - no?


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## Admiral Beez (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> This and other target valued information is what pees off the Czar the most - much more then those weapon deliveries.


Agreed. Though I wonder if this puts US and NATO generals at risk. Maybe a letter bomb arrives at home? Or when a US general visits a US base overseas.


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## Jagdflieger (May 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. Though I wonder if this puts US and NATO generals at risk. Maybe a letter bomb arrives at home? Or when a US general visits a US base overseas.


I would say that is the reason why the Czar is openly threatening retaliation (by what ever means - IMO however certainly not via using nukes on NATO targets)

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## buffnut453 (May 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Well - certain disinformation and cyber-operations e.g in country X are not run by separate government "institutions" - just separate but coordinated departments.
> Which in some "other" countries does sometimes lead to the issues that different services aren't in the full picture even with each other.



Lack of coordination happens in every Government organization. It doesn't matter how you slice the cake, you always end up with gaps between wedges...and those gaps hinder communication and coordination. And that's before we consider that sometimes those wedges are artificial in nature, with the result that topics almost inevitably span those gaps. Add Governmental rice-bowl-ism where organizations seek to grow their size and influence, and it's no wonder things get screwed up.

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## GrauGeist (May 4, 2022)

Disinformation warfare is (or was) called "PsyOps", not "cyber warfare" and is much, much older than the interwebs...

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## Jagdflieger (May 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Disinformation warfare is (or was) called "PsyOps", not "cyber warfare" and is much, much older than the interwebs...


Yes - but the internet has enhanced "PsyOps", propaganda and disinformation campaigns tremendously and made it far more simple to apply or spread.
And it has become an integrated tool within cyber ops.


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## GrauGeist (May 5, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Yes - but the internet has enhanced "PsyOps", propaganda and disinformation campaigns tremendously and made it far more simple to apply or spread.
> And it has become an integrated tool within cyber ops.


Nope, sorry but, no.

Cyber "warfare" is attacking networks and related.

Disinformation, regardless of venue, is not covered under that definition.


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## buffnut453 (May 5, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> And it has become an integrated tool within cyber ops.



Again, according to whose doctrine? Cyber delivered IO is not a cyber op. It’s IO….at least in the US. If you’re going to make a bald statement like that, please be clear about whose doctrine you’re quoting. 

Sorry to keep banging on about this but you’re using a very broad brush to delineate a very complex set of inter-relationships between different types of non-kinetic effects.

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## hawkeye2an (May 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> lol, I can add
> 
> hawkeye2an
> to the _happy to add an iconic response but apparently uncomfortable with entering into discussion _file. Six, count 'em six, "creatives" and *not one* written reply is obvious trollery.
> ...


Sorry mate, just the first time I've seen someone taken to task for calling someone creative.

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## GrauGeist (May 5, 2022)

Still trying to figure out how media outlets like RT and Pravda are conducting "cyber warfare" when Goebbels was doing the exact same thing well over 40 years before the internet...

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## Jagdflieger (May 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Again, according to whose doctrine? Cyber delivered IO is not a cyber op. It’s IO….at least in the US. If you’re going to make a bald statement like that, please be clear about whose doctrine you’re quoting.
> 
> Sorry to keep banging on about this but you’re using a very broad brush to delineate a very complex set of inter-relationships between different types of non-kinetic effects.


Oh come on, how detailed do you want to go?

there are enough known occurrences were e.g. IT systems from intelligence and security agencies have been accessed (cyber ops) and then used to send falsified information directly
"laying false IP information tracks" onto journalists and other intel. services in order to forward "authentic" false information and documents (disinformation campaign) right down to falsified archive registered and filed data deposits into breached data-banks.
That basic disinformation campaigns and basic cyber operations are two different topics is known, but they do not automatically exclude one from the other. Actually the opposite is rather the case.
Article from 2012!!
_has the advent of the internet allowed militaries around the globe to *bring psyops tactics into the cyber arena*. In the American context, this cyberwarfare concept is coordinated under CYBERCOM, a sub-unit of STRATCOM, one of the nine unified commands under the Department of Defense. Although little is directly known about the current operational tactics and methods that are *being deployed to bring psyops campaigns to the digital domain*, numerous treatises, papers, articles and open discussions are taking place in military journals, strategy documents, and congressional subcommittees over the vital role that the internet is set to play in 21st century psychological warfare campaigns._

So it clearly runs under Cyber-warfare. - especially in the USA

From the official US Army career brochure - dated 2022

Influence with Information, Psychological Operations:
Military Information Support Operations (MISO) missions involve sharing specific information to foreign audiences to influence the emotions, motives, reasoning, and behavior of foreign governments and citizens. This* can include cyber warfare *and advanced communication techniques across all forms of media.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 5, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Sorry mate, just the first time I've seen someone taken to task for calling someone creative.



In the context, six "creatives" without a reply (until this one, of course) looks really sketchy.

If you want a conversation, maybe write some words about what you think is so "creative" and we can discuss? I mean, that's what I'm here for, how about you?

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## at6 (May 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> U.S. intelligence is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals, officials say.
> WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.
> 
> Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.
> ...


No one should have revealed this if true.Putin is the enemy and the person or persons who chose to reveal this should chearged with treason and if it warrants, executed.


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## at6 (May 5, 2022)

I've noticed that Ukraine has not revealed numbers of volunteers or where they've come from. This is a wise move on Zelensky's part.


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## Jagdflieger (May 5, 2022)

at6 said:


> No one should have revealed this if true.Putin is the enemy and the person or persons who chose to reveal this should chearged with treason and if it warrants, executed.


Don't worry, it's only a specific group of people who need the media to tell them about issues that have been going on in parts or in general for month or years.


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## Dimlee (May 5, 2022)

Defense Officials Hold Media Brief on the Training of Ukrainian Military








Defense Officials Hold Media Brief on the Training of Ukrainian Military


Defense officials held a media briefing on the training of Ukrainian military.



www.defense.gov




United we stand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Creative, *2. *resulting from originality of thought; imaginative. I thought it was insightful to compare the invention of the internet to the invention and subsequent proliferation of earlier technological innovations. Do you ask why others click Winner or Like after your posts? Or is the Creative button a singular trigger for you? I meant no cheekiness, I thought your post was creative in the above sense. But really, what others think really shouldn‘t be that important. Who cares what they liked or thought was “winner” worthy?



Thank for the answer. The reason I ask about "creative" is not because it's a "trigger", but because unlike "winner" or any of the other opinion icons, it is ambiguous and not clear. I should have thought that would be obvious by dint of the fact that I had to ask what you meant by it.


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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

at6 said:


> No one should have revealed this if true.Putin is the enemy and the person or persons who chose to reveal this should chearged with treason and if it warrants, executed.


It does remind me of the British media reporting, mid-Falklands War that the fuses on Argentine air force bombs were not set correctly.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I'm curious about if this was released intentionally to let the Russians (as an aside, I keep wanting to write Soviets ) know they can run but can't hide or if someone spilled the beans on something they'd have rather kept under wraps. With the poor state of the mass media in the US it's hard to know either way.



I'd be willing to bet it's intentional, in order to get inside Russian heads.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

*Russian automakers will grow potatoes*. 
The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated by 10 acres of land to every employee for arranging vegetable gardens.
The company took this step due to the "difficult economic situation."









Russian automakers will grow potatoes


Photo: avtotor.ru Two land plots with a total area of 300 hectares were allocated for the factory workers The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated 10 acres of land to its employees for arranging vegetable gardens. The company took this step due to “difficult economic situation”...




www.perild.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated by 10 acres of land to every employee for arranging vegetable gardens.


The Kaliningrad oblast should not even exist. What the heck were Atlee and Truman thinking at Potsdam? Two newbies got railroaded by Stalin, is my guess. It reminds me of how the Russians asked for the specs and drawings for the Rolls-Royce Nene and Atlee sent them right over so that the Russians could make their own copy, the Klimov VK-1 - Wikipedia Stalin must have thought the West was run by idiots.

Now for the rest of time Europe has a rump of totalitarian and criminal Russia stuck in its midst.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

Pro-Russian propagandist Anatoly Shariy was arrested in Spain, reports Ukrainian intelligence.

Confirmed by several Spanish news papers








Detienen en Cataluña a Anatoli Sharí, periodista y opositor ucraniano prorruso


El bloguero Anatoli Sharí, acusado de traición por Ucrania, fue detenido en el municipio de Roda de Berá, en Tarragona, su lugar de residencia. El juez le ha puesto en libertad provisional




www.elconfidencial.com

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## Dimlee (May 5, 2022)

Lessons continue to be learned after the Moskva sinking.








Antiship Missile Lessons from Sinking of the Moskva


The missile attack that sank the Russian Navy’s Slava-class cruiser reveals that missiles with more precision, longer range, and smaller warheads cause far more damage than most models estimated.




www.usni.org

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## Crimea_River (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> *Russian automakers will grow potatoes*.
> The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated by 10 acres of land to every employee for arranging vegetable gardens.
> The company took this step due to the "difficult economic situation."
> 
> ...



"10 acres of land to every employee". Article says "Avtotor allocated 10 acres of land to its employees". Accuracy matters.

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## Dimlee (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> *Russian automakers will grow potatoes*.
> The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated by 10 acres of land to every employee for arranging vegetable gardens.
> The company took this step due to the "difficult economic situation."
> 
> ...


Just another company that prospered thanks to the foreign expertise, training, investments... and that can go bust due to the Kremlin policies. But Avtotor's employees did vote for Putin, didn't they. Nobody to blame but themselves. Still a shame... I knew that company and visited Kaliningrad and Baltiysk several times in 2000s.

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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The Kaliningrad automobile holding Avtotor allocated by 10 acres of land to every employee for arranging vegetable gardens.


There's nothing wrong with farming and repurposing land. When Detroit's auto sector collapsed like Kaliningrad's the city switched much of the old space into agriculture. It's not a sign of failure, but one of survival. 









Detroit gets growing


Detroit was once the engine of America's automotive industry. Today it is a symbol of urban decay. But a daring bid to return the land to farming is sowing seeds of recovery – and could be a template for cities across the world




www.theguardian.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

Ukraine's government has launched a fundraiser app.









United24: Zelensky presents online platform to support Ukraine


On the United24 online platform, one can donate money in one click to help Ukrainian defenders, civilians and rebuild the country. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net





Maybe they need an adopt a tank campaign.

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## Dimlee (May 5, 2022)

M777 howitzer in action. Arsenal of democracy gives the tools. Brave men and women finish the job.

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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> M777 howitzer in action. Arsenal of democracy gives the tools. Brave men and women finish the job.



I wonder if that's one of Canada's.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> "10 acres of land to every employee". Article says "Avtotor allocated 10 acres of land to its employees". Accuracy matters.


Later on it says
"two land areas with a total area of 300 hectares owned by the company have been allocated"
300 hectares is about 750 acres enough for 75 10 acre parcels.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Later on it says
> "two land areas with a total area of 300 hectares owned by the company have been allocated"
> 300 hectares is about 750 acres enough for 75 10 acre parcels.


10 acres is a lot of land for a part-time-gardening auto worker to cultivate. In fact I've always found a half acre is more than enough to keep me busy. In my area, community gardens are popular, but none are as large as ten acres. OTOH, a ten acre community garden with twenty members and access to small farm size tractor equipment would be heaven on earth.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 5, 2022)

I find the disinformation/psy-ops/cyberwar wrangle fascinating. We all seem to be age-dating ourselves by the slant we take on that (those) topic(s), from the historical to the current current perspective. Such a spectrum we have at our disposal here!


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## special ed (May 5, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> 10 acres is a lot of land for a part-time-gardening auto worker to cultivate. In fact I've always found a half acre is more than enough to keep me busy. In my area, community gardens are popular, but none are as large as ten acres. OTOH, a ten acre community garden with twenty members and access to small farm size tractor equipment would be heaven on earth.


There should be "captured" John Deere tractors available.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

Never though i would see those 2 words together "Putin apologizes"








Putin Apologizes To PM Bennett For Foreign Minister's Remarks - The Yeshiva World


Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to congratulate him on Israel's Independence Day. The two discussed




www.theyeshivaworld.com

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## vikingBerserker (May 5, 2022)

Well having both the SAS and MOSAD pissed off at you at the same time has shown your life expectancy having drastically declined.

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## SaparotRob (May 5, 2022)

I’m sure he might not be the FSB’s favorite person right now. There will be nothing to steal if he blows the world up.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

If half of that is true ...









‘They Deceived Us at Every Step’: Troops Say Russia’s War Is in Shambles


South Ossetian troops sent into Ukraine to “defend Russia” say it’s a lost cause.



www.thedailybeast.com

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## GTX (May 5, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (May 5, 2022)

GTX said:


>



What's funny is I seen the opposite on Facebook - a post about the "Greatest Generation" with US Flags waving while the soldier is a Russian grunt holding a PPSh-41!

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## RogerdeLluria (May 5, 2022)

GTX said:


>



They have done worse than that:

Finish soldier in 1943






He-111 crew in 1940

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## SaparotRob (May 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> They have done worse than that:
> 
> Finish soldier in 1943
> View attachment 667073
> ...


I gotta' ask, are those billboards real? I want to believe!


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## Snautzer01 (May 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I gotta' ask, are those billboards real? I want to believe!


Posted before.


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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> What's funny is I seen the opposite on Facebook - a post about the "Greatest Generation" with US Flags waving while the soldier is a Russian grunt holding a PPSh-41!


I’ll up the ante here.

Veterans Affairs Canada quickly deleted an online video it posted — on Wednesday, to celebrate the 74th anniversary of VE-Day — upon realizing it showed images of the German Wehrmacht.

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## FLYBOYJ (May 5, 2022)

Saw this just now - 








Russia's most advanced tank in service was obliterated by Ukraine just days after it was deployed, according to reports


The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed the T-90's destruction in a statement, saying the tank arrived in Ukraine just days before its demise.




www.yahoo.com

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## wlewisiii (May 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Saw this just now -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Just another T-90 mod which is, ultimately, just a tarted up T-72. Same jack in a box autoloader that kills in the blink of an eye. Its nothing special. 

Now if it had been one of the ~20 T-14 Armata that have been built, it would be something interesting.

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## wlewisiii (May 5, 2022)

This, OTOH, is far more interesting news and implies far greater incompetence in the Russian navy.

The radars were stowed. They were f'ing blind.

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## wlewisiii (May 5, 2022)

May the Fourth Be With You.

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## Admiral Beez (May 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Just another T-90 mod which is, ultimately, just a tarted up T-72. Same jack in a box autoloader that kills in the blink of an eye. Its nothing special.


Indeed. An Isherman is still a Sherman, an Olifant or Sho't is still a Centurion, and a T-90 is still a T-72. It’s all just mods of old sh#t. Mind you, I’d put a 105mm armed Isherman with its Israeli crew against a Russian crewed T-90 any day.


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## hawkeye2an (May 5, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Sorry mate, just the first time I've seen someone taken to task for calling someone creative.


Just so you know who I am. I got on this group 12-13 years ago as I am an amateur WWII historian and was a quite experienced model builder. I stopped following for a while because my diabetic neuropathy has advanced to a stage that it is almost impossible to build models. I used to contribute a lot to the WWII pages and have only been back for a few months. I know very little about current military procedures but am so saddened about Ukraine. I have a friend in Odessa and another who was in Kyiv. I have learned so much from all the excellent, knowledgeable people on this forum. I mostly just read, but have posted a few items I found humorous. I mistook what you were trying to say about the creative comment. I did not realize the implication of making stuff up. I sincerely apologize.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 5, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Just so you know who I am. I got on this group 12-13 years ago as I am an amateur WWII historian and was a quite experienced model builder. I stopped following for a while because my diabetic neuropathy has advanced to a stage that it is almost impossible to build models. I used to contribute a lot to the WWII pages and have only been back for a few months. I know very little about current military procedures but am so saddened about Ukraine. I have a friend in Odessa and another who was in Kyiv. I have learned so much from all the excellent, knowledgeable people on this forum. I mostly just read, but have posted a few items I found humorous. I mistook what you were trying to say about the creative comment. I did not realize the implication of making stuff up. I sincerely apologize.



It's all good, brotha, it just struck me as odd and that part is a me problem. 

Sorry for my misunderstanding, and for your ailments as well.

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## ThomasP (May 6, 2022)

re Moskva radars in stowed position

According to the same source as mentioned in my post#4,509 up-thread on 19 April, the Moskva's main air search radar was in operation at the time of the attack, as was her primary surface search/navigation radar.

NOTE Source for the above is usually accurate.

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## WARSPITER (May 6, 2022)

Perhaps the Moskva radar was shut down after the hits, hence the pictures.


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## Denniss (May 6, 2022)

maybe automatic parking after loss of main power

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## ThomasP (May 6, 2022)

The 3R41 Volna/Top Dome FC for the S-300 SAM, and OSA-M/MPZ-301 Baza/Pop Group for the 9M33M SAM are both FC (Fire Control) radars and subject to hand-off from the search radars.

The Top Pair radar is a rotating analog S-band pulse coded doppler radar with MTI. The Top Steer is a rotating analog S-band pulse coded doppler radar with MTI. The MR-231 Palm Frond is a fast rotating high high resolution X-band pulse coded radar. None of these radars have the ability to automatically hand off targets to the fire control radars.

Basically, the incoming sea skimming Neptune SSM would have to be detected by the MR-800 Voskhod (Top Pair) 3D air search and/or MR-710 Fregat (Top Steer) 3D air/surface search radars and/or MR-231 Nyada (Palm Frond) surface search/navigation radars, and then hand the target information necessary for the FC radars to look for the target (or in the case of the CIWS radars at least tell them to turn on in automatic mode). If the radars are not as good in terms of detection as they are advertised, or the operators are not alert and/or competent enough, they would not be able to hand off to the SAM systems or activate the AK-630 CIWS system in time.

The S-300F missile is not advertised as being able to intercept surface skimming missiles.

The 9M33M missile on the Moskva may have been capable of intercepting surface skimming missiles.

The AK-630 CIWS is advertised as being able to shoot down sea skimming missiles.

The Top Pair was on the fore mast. The Top Steer was located amidship.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Earlier this morning I read this








The Russian Frigate ‘Admiral Makarov’ Might Be The Juiciest Target In The Black Sea


After the dramatic sinking of the missile-cruiser Moskva by a Ukrainian missile battery on April 14, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is down to just three major surface combatants. The best and most important of them might be the new missile-frigate 'Admiral Makarov.'




www.forbes.com





And just a few hours later read this unconfirmed news (coincidence???)








UPDATE: Russian Navy warship Admiral Makarov on fire - 'no information to corroborate reports'


REPORTS that the Russian Navy warship 'Admiral Makarov' is currently on fire after being struck by Ukrainian Neptune missiles can not be corroborated by




euroweeklynews.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The AK-630 CIWS is advertised as being able to shoot down sea skimming missiles.


Are there any examples of CIWS actually stopping an AShM fired in anger? I’m reminded of USS Stark where the CIWS failed to activate and prevent the two Exocet strikes. Live-fire exercises where everyone‘s prepared are one thing, but use in actual combat conditions seems to show different results.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> And just a few hours later read this unconfirmed news (coincidence???)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Jesus H. Christ. Another operational or CIWS fail? If this is true Putin’s going to be as pissed as Hitler after Barrents Sea where he chucked out Admiral Raeder and essentially scrapped the surface fleet.

The US with its recon sats sitting over Ukraine is clearly telling the UAF where the Russian ships are located.

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## Wildcat (May 6, 2022)

Interesting! I'll wait and see what info is forthcoming before I get too excited.

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## vikingBerserker (May 6, 2022)

At this rate they are only going to have their coal powered submarines left.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

Poor Admiral Makarov, can't catch a break. Sails his flagship the battleship Petropavlovsk into a minefield and drowns. Now this.


Wildcat said:


> Interesting! I'll wait and see what info is forthcoming before I get too excited.


Me too, but damn this has to be embarrassing.









The Russians Are Losing The Naval War Off Ukraine—To An Enemy With No Warships


Ukraine’s navy, which after scuttling its flagship no longer has a single large vessel, continues to chip away at Russia’s own naval power in the Black Sea. With a big assist from Ukraine’s army, of course.




www.forbes.com





It's going to be hard for Russia to have a successful VE Day parade on May 9th when pics of its latest warship on fire hit the airwaves. Apparently on May 9th the Ukrainians are planning to march a fleet of destroyed Russian tanks and vehicles down the main road in Kyiv.

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## Wildcat (May 6, 2022)

Found on Twitter.

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## Jagdflieger (May 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The 3R41 Volna/Top Dome FC for the S-300 SAM, and OSA-M/MPZ-301 Baza/Pop Group for the 9M33M SAM are both FC (Fire Control) radars and subject to hand-off from the search radars.
> 
> The Top Pair radar is a rotating analog S-band pulse coded doppler radar with MTI. The Top Steer is a rotating analog S-band pulse coded doppler radar with MTI. The MR-231 Palm Frond is a fast rotating high high resolution X-band pulse coded radar. None of these radars have the ability to automatically hand off targets to the fire control radars.
> 
> ...


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## swampyankee (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are there any examples of CIWS actually stopping an AShM fired in anger? I’m reminded of USS Stark where the CIWS failed to activate and prevent the two Exocet strikes. Live-fire exercises where everyone‘s prepared are one thing, but use in actual combat conditions seems to show different results.



In the case of the USS_ Stark_, the Phalanx system was either set to manual mode or turned off, as it couldn't be in automatic mode if there were helicopters flying nearby: it would shoot the tips off the rotor blades.

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## Jagdflieger (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are there any examples of CIWS actually stopping an AShM fired in anger? I’m reminded of USS Stark where the CIWS failed to activate and prevent the two Exocet strikes. Live-fire exercises where everyone‘s prepared are one thing, but use in actual combat conditions seems to show different results.



In the BBC live documentary "Battleship" they were very impressive. - sorry I just couldn't resist.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> At this rate they are only going to have their coal powered submarines left.



That's if the paddlewheels haven't rotted away ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Poor Admiral Makarov, can't catch a break. Sails his flagship the battleship Petropavlovsk into a minefield and drowns. Now this.
> 
> Me too, but damn this has to be embarrassing.
> 
> ...



From your linked article:

_
Down three amphibs as well as Moskva with its long-range air-defense missiles, the Black Sea Fleet no longer can concentrate a large landing force nor protect it from air and missile attack. That means the Russians almost certainly can't open a littoral front along Ukraine's western coastline in order to stage an assault on the strategic port of Odessa, Ukraine's main gateway to the sea.

That could free up Odessa's garrison, including the reserve 5th Tank Brigade with its undamaged T-72 battalions, to roll east in support of Ukraine's campaign around the port of Kherson, occupied by the Russians since early March.

Moskva, Saratov and the other landing ships are the most significant naval casualties on the Russian side, but they're not the only ones. On or before March 22, Ukrainian army troops in Mariupol—an historic port on the Sea of Azov, adjacent to the Black Sea—struck a Raptor with at least one Konkurs anti-tank missile as the boat patrolled close to shore.

That makes two big Russian ships sunk plus two damaged, as well as three patrol boats knocked out if not totally destroyed. This out of a regional fleet that, before the war, included just seven large surface combatants—frigates and large corvettes plus Moskva—in addition to a half-dozen landing ships, six or seven Raptors and six or so diesel-electric submarines.

Bear in mind, Turkey controls the Bosphorous Strait, the only waterway connecting the Sea of Azov and Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea and thus the open ocean. Ankara is a strong backer of Ukraine's independence—remember, the TB-2 drone is a Turkish product—and has not allowed the Russian navy to send in fresh ships to make good the Black Sea Fleet's losses._

Interesting reading.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Earlier this morning I read this
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It seems it didn't sunk (yet) just hit by a missile and is on fire, altough moskva started with a fire an ended sunk.









Russian frigate Admiral Makarov ‘on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile’


Ship was sailing near Snake Island when hit, say reports




www.independent.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems it didn't sunk (yet) just hit by a missile and is on fire, altough moskva started with a fire an ended sunk.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Awaiting independent confirmation. No doubt we'll hear about, and perhaps see pics of, satellite confirmation.

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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

BBC has updated its count of known Russian casualties:

_An open source investigation by the BBC Russian Service has established the identities of 2,120 Russian soldiers killed during the invasion of Ukraine so far.

The figure - likely only a fraction of the true death toll - was compiled using official notices, press reports, and family confirmations.

Around 20% of the confirmed dead were officers, but this may be partly explained by the fact that the deaths of higher-ranking officers are more likely to be reported.

A disproportionate number of the casualties also came from poorer Russian regions, with only three of the dead known to have come from Moscow despite almost 1 in 10 Russians living in the capital.

The Kremlin hasn't released an updated death toll since 25 March - when it put its own losses at 1,351.

The true number of casualties is impossible to know, but last week the UK estimated around 15,000 Russian troops had been killed - lower than Ukraine's own estimates but significantly more than has been acknowledged by Moscow._

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

It's seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it.
Though so far this is still not 100% Confirmed.

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## vikingBerserker (May 6, 2022)

Model of a proposed Russian Naval Monument just released:

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It's seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it.
> Though so far this is still not 100% Confirmed.


Reported video of Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov. Still no confirmation it is true.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> I admit twelve months to train a tank crew was more than I expected. In a war situation which is what we are talking about there normally are ways to shorten training periods.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

If this is true Russians will go nuts. *2 frigates in less than 24 hours.* Great prologue for Russian V-day, rotflol

explosion on Burevestnik frigate? 
5 hours ago ( 2022-05-06 14:18 )

An explosion followed by burning also occurred on board the Russian Burevestnik frigate near Zmeiny Island, Dumskaya reported.






Ukraine 
An explosion followed by burning also occurred on board the Russian Burevestnik frigate near Zmeiny Island, Dumskaya reported. According to preliminary information, the ship was hit by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles. We are waiting for official information. The Krivak class, Soviet designation Project 1135 Burevestnik (storm petrel), were a series of frigates and guard ships (patrol boats) built in the Soviet Union primarily for the Soviet Navy since 1970. Later some sub-branches, like the Nerey (Nereus) were designed for coastal patrol by the KGB Border Troops. Until 1977, the ships in the class were considered to be large anti-submarine warfare vessels.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

Which ship is that?








Krivak-class frigate - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which ship is that?



Nope...they're different classes of ship. The Makarov is an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate and is very new (5 yrs old, IIRC) whereas the Burevestnik is a much older Krivak-class.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Nope...they're different classes of ship. The Makarov is an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate and is very new (5 yrs old, IIRC) whereas the Burevestnik is a much older Krivak-class.



Do you have a link for your report?


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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do you have a link for your report?



Not my report. I was simply noting that the Makarov and Burevestnik are different classes of vessel. The video at Post# 5621 appears to be the Makarov based on the planar array radar atop the mast (the Burevestnik has the oval-shaped Head Net radar).

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which ship is that?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





buffnut453 said:


> Nope...they're different classes of ship. The Makarov is an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate and is very new (5 yrs old, IIRC) whereas the Burevestnik is a much older Krivak-class.



Yep.

It may actually be the same ship reported twice under different names, we have to wait for confirmation. But Admiral Makarov and Burevestnik are two different ships.

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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Yep.
> 
> It may actually be the same ship reported twice under different names, we have to wait for confirmation. But Admiral Makarov and Burevestnik are two different ships.



Agreed. It seems we're seeing reporting of the same event, but with different ships identified in the reports.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Going back to land war. It seems Ukraine started an offensive.



> As result of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, control gained over the settlements Aleksandrovka, Fedorovka, Ukrainka, Shestakovo, Pobeda and part of the village of Cherkasskie Tishki - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not my report. I was simply noting that the Makarov and Burevestnik are different classes of vessel. The video at Post# 5621 appears to be the Makarov based on the planar array radar atop the mast (the Burevestnik has the oval-shaped Head Net radar).



I stand corrected, and my apologies for misattributing. 
R
 RogerdeLluria
, do you have a source for your report that you can link?


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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

Going back to the naval war...I find it interesting that there's virtually no reporting of the Admiral Makarov in the open press. I'd have thought that the Russian media would be all over this if the ship hadn't been hit. There's also reporting of extensive helicopter operations near the ship, which tallies with reports of efforts to evacuate the crew. 

I'm leaning towards thinking that it did get hit. Now to see how badly it was damaged.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Going back to land war. It seems Ukraine started an offensive.


If he survives, UAF's General Serhiy Shaptala is going to have a good career in retirement lecturing at military schools around the world.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I stand corrected, and my apologies for misattributing.
> R
> RogerdeLluria
> , do you have a source for your report that you can link?


Only source I've seen





RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA MONITOR







intermarium24.com




Many sources cite Admiral Makarov. However, the same source also report Admiral Makarov being on fire





RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA MONITOR







intermarium24.com


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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Only source I've seen
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*Zmiinyi Island *is *Snake island*, so it may very well be same incident reported under different ship names.

However, other sources claim Admiral Makarov was hit close to Krimea.

Guess we have to wait for confirmation and don't get too excited.

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## hawkeye2an (May 6, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Model of a proposed Russian Naval Monument just released:Falklands/Melvinas





vikingBerserker said:


> Model of a proposed Russian Naval Monument just released:
> 
> View attachment 667194


After the Falklands/Melvinas there was a meme going around about Jacques Cousteau going down to place a wreath on the Argentine Navy.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Found two source that mix Admiral Makarov with Burevestnik








Trending news: Ukraine announced the defeat of the third large ship of the Black Sea Fleet - The Moscow Times - Hindustan News Hub


Ukraine announced the defeat of the third large ship of the Black Sea Fleet - The Moscow Times Hindustan News Hub




hindustannewshub.com












Russian frigate on fire off near Zmeiniy island in the Black Sea, Ukrainian media report /UPDATED/


According to updated information from the Ukrainian media, the latest frigate of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, the “Admiral Makarov” was hit by the Neptune anti-ship system. The ship at that time was off Serpent Island. It is reported about the fire and the arrival of ...




www.turan.az




We are probably under same incident - different names scenario. Incident has yet to be confirmed, but I'm leaning to believe *1 frigate was hit.*


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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Aleksey Goncharenko, a Ukrainian politician and chairman of the Odessa Regional Council claims the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Адмирал Макаров was *hit and sunk* by a neptune missile. Still awaiting more official confirmation from both sides.



Seems Ukaranian claim the ship to be *hit and sunk*. Waiting for other sources.

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## fubar57 (May 6, 2022)

It'll probably come as a Russian announcement that they have moved another submarine into the area

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Found two source that mix Admiral Makarov with Burevestnik
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The video of the ship burning, posted above, appears to be the _Makarov_, with its long forecastle mounting a single gun, a mattress radar on the mainmast, and a bulky superstructure largely aft. With credit to Dessee23 at another forum where we're discussing this war, here's a still of the burning ship compared to a peacetime photo:











I suspect the two differing reports are a matter of misidentification. Compare to a peacetime pic of a _Krivak_:






The forecastle and superstructure are very different from the pic of the burning ship.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

And an interesting discussion on the wider evaluations of military capabilities:


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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

Damn those Russians need to quit smoking. Everything catches fire lately.
By the way, Vladikavkaz is very close to Georgia border.

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## vikingBerserker (May 6, 2022)

I saw that burning ship in a video and I swear it looked like it came from a game sim, it just looked off.

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## Mike Williams (May 6, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> It'll probably come as a Russian announcement that they have moved another submarine into the area


lol!, that's hysterical!!


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## Jagdflieger (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The video of the ship burning, posted above, appears to be the _Makarov_, with its long forecastle mounting a single gun, a mattress radar on the mainmast, and a bulky superstructure largely aft. With credit to Dessee23 at another forum where we're discussing this war, here's a still of the burning ship compared to a peacetime photo:
> 
> View attachment 667203
> 
> ...


The Frigates, Admiral Grigorovich, Makarov and Essen are termed Krivak IV class by NATO - the one burning and first reported is the Makarov.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The Frigates, Admiral Grigorovich, Makarov and Essen are termed Krivak IV class by NATO - the one burning and first reported is the Makarov.



So it may be that both reports are true, but referring to one ship using two different identifiers?


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## GTX (May 6, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> So it may be that both reports are true, but referring to one ship using two different identifiers?


Maybe, but there are also the The Admiral Gorshkov, and Admiral Kasatonov, they are the newest Russian class of multi-role frigates. They are a successor to the old Burevestnik class (NATO reporting name Krivak class). The hull is very similar.
So can indeed be that two Frigates were hit - one being the Makarow (Krivak IV class) and one of the two new Krivak class Frigates.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe, but there are also the The Admiral Gorshkov, and Admiral Kasatonov, they are the newest Russian class of multi-role frigates. They are a successor to the old Burevestnik class (NATO reporting name Krivak class). The hull is very similar.
> So can indeed be that two Frigates were hit - one being the Makarow (Krivak IV class) and one of the two new Krivak class Frigates.



Until we get confirmation, we're only speculating, which is why I'm in wait-and-see mode. Neither Reuters nor AP are reporting it at all, which makes me think they're having to work hard for any objective confirmation.

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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Until we get confirmation, we're only speculating, which is why I'm in wait-and-see mode. Neither Reuters nor AP are reporting it at all, which makes me think they're having to work hard for any objective confirmation.



Yeah...the lack of information is frustrating. That said, as noted earlier, the claims are already out there and so it should be pretty easy for Russia to contradict the claim if the Admiral Makarov wasn't, in fact, hit. The simple lack of any Russian information, particularly the strident denial, is somewhat telling to me. I wonder if they're trying to find a better story than "We had another accidently fire on another ship" which clearly won't cut it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...the lack of information is frustrating. That said, as noted earlier, the claims are already out there and so it should be pretty easy for Russia to contradict the claim if the Admiral Makarov wasn't, in fact, hit. The simple lack of any Russian information, particularly the strident denial, is somewhat telling to me. I wonder if they're trying to find a better story than "We had another accidently fire on another ship" which clearly won't cut it.



Sure -- it looks pretty fishy, given the entire lack of Russian transparency. I'm more inclined to believe the Ukrainians anyway, given that over the last nine weeks their reports have proven more accurate than the Russians anyway.

But I try to restrain my own personal bias and that's what is driving my outlook and commentary here.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 6, 2022)

The Pentagon has said that they so far have received No Intelligence that the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov has been struck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles and is sinking near Odessa, though they have been paying very close attention to the Claims over the last 24 hours.

There are also rumors that the video I posted above may have been created with a videogame.

I guess we have to switch to wait-and-see mode until further evidence in one way or another emerges.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I guess we have to switch to wait-and-see mode until further evidence in one way or another emerges.


Indeed, otherwise we’ll end up with another Ghost of Kiyv.

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## MiTasol (May 6, 2022)

special ed said:


> There should be "captured" John Deere tractors available.



The captured JDs are of no use because once reported stolen they are remotely disabled and I would expect JD also disable any that move from their normal location by more that say 20-30km.

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## buffnut453 (May 6, 2022)

Courage comes in all shapes and sizes:

_A 15-year-old girl managed to save the lives of four adults after their car was attacked by Russian forces while fleeing Popasna in April.

Lisa Chernyshenko took the wheel when the driver and other passengers were hit by Russian fire on the road to Bakhmut.

The car came under fire again and Lisa was wounded in her legs, but she managed to continue driving and until they were taken to safety by the Ukrainian military. Everyone in the car survived.

She is now receiving treatment for her injuries at a hospital in Lviv._

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

Is there no hope of a Ukrainian offensive to rescue the forces in Mariupol? It must feel like Von Paulus being left behind in Stalingrad.

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## wlewisiii (May 6, 2022)

It's never a good thing to be on the wrong side of the Gun Bunnies:

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is there no hope of a Ukrainian offensive to rescue the forces in Mariupol? It must feel like Von Paulus being left behind in Stalingrad.



Given that there's a renewed offensive in the northeast, I wonder if the Ukrainians have enough manpower to both defend the Donbas and retake Mariupol.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Still no reports from any major outlets about the frigate allegedly hit this morning.

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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Still no reports from any major outlets about the frigate allegedly hit this morning.


Forbes isn’t too bad, but yeah. It’s not the NYT or BBC.









Another Russian Warship Is Burning In The Black Sea


Ukrainian missiles may have hit another Russian warship.




www.forbes.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Forbes isn’t too bad, but yeah. It’s not the NYT or BBC.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I hadn't seen that, but I'm up against my free limit.

ETA: My son tells me _Jerusalem Times_ is reporting this too.


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## Admiral Beez (May 6, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (May 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Still no reports from any major outlets about the frigate allegedly hit this morning.



The BBC mentioned it but it has t been included in their daily summary of events. It seems odd that there’s so little info about this event.

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## wlewisiii (May 7, 2022)



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## Glider (May 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is there no hope of a Ukrainian offensive to rescue the forces in Mariupol? It must feel like Von Paulus being left behind in Stalingrad.


I think there is one significant difference. Von Paulus was left behind and his men died for nothing albeit they did divert some Russian troops from other tasks. The actual fighting on the front would have continued pretty much as it did, due to the overwhelming balance of forces in favour of the Russians.

The forces in Mariupol are draining scarce Russian forces and material at a time when Russia desperately needs them elsewhere. When the history of this conflict is written, I fully expect Historians to say that these incredibly brave men and women saved Odessa which is the ultimate Russian prize in the South of Ukraine.

It isn't just the physical damage being done in the fighting it's the impact on morale for both the Ukraine and Russia. Its in some ways a continuation on a much larger scale of those few men and women who told the Russian Navy to go ---- themselves. It's also the political damage. Putin is doing all he can to get a 'Win' broadcast on May 9th. If he cannot capture a few square miles in an area he has surrounded for so long, it's not much of a win.

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## Jagdflieger (May 7, 2022)

Glider said:


> The forces in Mariupol are draining scarce Russian forces and material at a time when Russia desperately needs them elsewhere. When the history of this conflict is written, I fully expect Historians to say that these incredibly brave men and women saved Odessa which is the ultimate Russian prize in the South of Ukraine.
> 
> It isn't just the physical damage being done in the fighting it's the impact on morale for both the Ukraine and Russia. Its in some ways a continuation on a much larger scale of those few men and women who told the Russian Navy to go ---- themselves. It's also the political damage. Putin is doing all he can to get a 'Win' broadcast on May 9th. If he cannot capture a few square miles in an area he has surrounded for so long, it's not much of a win.


In the broader picture regarding attacking towards Odessa and "liberating" the north-eastern regions, the existence of some 100's or initially 2-3000 men dug in and confined to an area less then 2km2 is of no tactical value/significance. But it certainly is good for propaganda and thus lifting Ukrainian spirits.
Since Putin announced that "Russian" forces have stopped their assault on to Azov steel-plant - all photos shown in regards to troops committed towards taking out the plant are DNLR or pro-Russia militias. (Doesn't exclude the possibility of some 100's Russian "specialists" supporting the takeout)
I think the reason being that Putin rightfully is not wiling to commit Russian troops in numbers - which are needed and can be placed to a much better effect elsewhere and not witnessing or suffering losses that would only add to the low moral that Russian units are already being plagued with. - just my 5 cents.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 7, 2022)

Institute for the Study of War


The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days. Ukrainian forces captured several settlements north




www.understandingwar.org





A couple takeaways, Ukrania is on the counter ofensive in Kharkiv and no confirmation of anti-ship missile strike

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## RogerdeLluria (May 7, 2022)

Maybe another ship was too good to be true. Although this picture is still no proof that it didn't happen.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 7, 2022)

_
May 7 (Reuters) - Russia's most senior lawmaker on Saturday accused Washington of coordinating military operations in Ukraine, which he said amounted to direct U.S. involvement in military action against Russia.

"Washington is essentially coordinating and developing military operations, thereby directly participating in military actions against our country," Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel.

Washington and European members of the transatlantic NATO alliance have supplied Kyiv with heavy weapons to help it resist a Russian offensive that has resulted in the occupation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine but failed to take Kyiv.


However, the United States and its NATO allies have repeatedly said they will not take part in fighting themselves, in order to avoid becoming parties to the conflict.

U.S. officials have said the United States has provided intelligence to Ukraine to help counter the Russian assault, but have denied that this intelligence includes precise targeting data.

Volodin, speaker of the lower house of parliament, the Duma, is a prominent advocate of what Moscow calls its "special operation" in Ukraine to degrade its southern neighbour's military capabilities and root out what it calls fascist elements holding sway over the government and military._









Senior Russian lawmaker says U.S. directly involved in Ukraine fighting


Russia's most senior lawmaker on Saturday accused Washington of coordinating military operations in Ukraine, which he said amounted to direct U.S. involvement in military action against Russia.




www.reuters.com





As we say in my family, "if you're feeling froggy, jump."

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## SaparotRob (May 7, 2022)

Well, I just spent a while looking for anything on the sinking of the Makarov. I watched a YouTube video from "Denys Davydov". He is a Ukrainian International Airlines pilot and has some time on his hands. He posted a video about his looking for info on the Makarov. He shows a Bayraktar strike on a landing craft, type unknown at Snake Island. He believes that was what was hit.


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## Macandy (May 7, 2022)

One of Russias Frigates is 'at sea'.
It will remain 'at sea' until after the May Day Parade.

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## Jagdflieger (May 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Well, I just spent a while looking for anything on the sinking of the Makarov. I watched a YouTube video from "Denys Davydov". He is a Ukrainian International Airlines pilot and has some time on his hands. He posted a video about his looking for info on the Makarov. He shows a Bayraktar strike on a landing craft, type unknown at Snake Island. He believes that was what was hit.


I read that too, but the supposed fire on the Makarov was reported the day before - no?
As for today's sinking of a "small" landing craft - seems confirmed, but a 2nd one being hit or sunk was reported as well.

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## buffnut453 (May 7, 2022)

I think the Makarov and the landing craft are separate events. Ukraine claimed the Makarov was hit by Neptune missiles while the LC was hit by the Bayraktar. Tough to confuse the two weapons systems or the different types of vessel.

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## GTX (May 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _May 7 (Reuters) - Russia's most senior lawmaker on Saturday accused Washington of coordinating military operations in Ukraine, which he said amounted to direct U.S. involvement in military action against Russia.
> 
> "Washington is essentially coordinating and developing military operations, thereby directly participating in military actions against our country," Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel.
> 
> ...


Well comrade there is a simple way to address this: pull out of Ukraine and apologies for invading in the first place!

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## Greg Boeser (May 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> Well comrade there is a simple way to address this: pull out of Ukraine and apologies for invading in the first place!


And pay damages.

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## wlewisiii (May 7, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _"Washington is…directly participating in military actions against our country," Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel_


Then get out of Ukraine’s country. You dummy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then get out of Ukraine’s country. You dummy.





Greg Boeser said:


> And pay damages.

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## buffnut453 (May 7, 2022)

Pretty good analysis of the situation by Michael Clarke of Kings College London (they know their stuff when it comes to War Studies):









Viewpoint: Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat


Russia's Victory Day parade won't represent any sort of victory over Ukraine, writes defence analyst Michael Clarke.



www.bbc.com

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## MiTasol (May 7, 2022)

*The Molotov Cocktail:* The home-made flammable liquid bomb-in-a-bottle, which has been around since the Spanish Civil War (1930s), wasn't named for Soviet Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars Vyacheslav Molotov until the Winter War in Finland (Nov. 1939 to March 1940). That invasion by the Soviet Union was in part repelled thanks to _Alko,_ a distillery in Finland, which made 450,000 of them. Why call it Molotov? His propaganda included the outrageous claim that the Soviet's incendiary and cluster bombing missions over Finland were actually "airborne humanitarian food deliveries." The Finns called their defensive weapon after him as it was "a drink to go with his food parcels." Molotov did not appreciate the honor.

Vladimir Putin's assertion that he's trying to liberate Ukraine from "Nazis" is just as laughable — at least when you're not on the receiving end of his war crimes and hopefully will soon lead to a new Ukrainian weapon named after him. And I hope he is honoured - NOT.

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## wlewisiii (May 8, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (May 8, 2022)

Still unconfirmed.









NATO reconnaissance aircraft trying to verify destruction of Admiral Makarov frigate


Boeing E-3A Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft "cautiously peeked" into the Black Sea, and a US Air Force drone made more than one circle over the possible site of the Russian ship destruction.




empr.media

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## RogerdeLluria (May 8, 2022)

TB2 first confirmed air-to-air kill

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 8, 2022)

Ukrainian Air Force attacking Snake Island, with Bayraktar UAV (hitting a Serna clases SAM-Carrying Landing Craft) and Su-27.









Ukraine Situation Report: TB2s Strike Russian SAM-Carrying Landing Craft At Snake Island


Footage shows a strike on a Russian landing craft unloading a SAM launcher in the latest Black Sea action by Ukrainian forces.




www.thedrive.com













Ukraine Strikes Back: Su-27s Bomb Occupied Snake Island In Daring Raid


The Flankers flew extremely low over the water and popped up for a toss bombing run, hitting multiple targets in a single pass.




www.thedrive.com





All that ukrainian activity over Snake Island is a prelude to a landing or an attempt to force RF vacate it?

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## Jagdflieger (May 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then get out of Ukraine’s country. You dummy.


Hmm...b..but... Vladimir Put-Moses forwards that he (envisioned by God) is helping Russian Ukrainians to be free from the Nazis and their NATO serfs in Kiev, upon having expelled the Nazi government, he will hold free democratic elections in Ukraine and will achieve at minimum 66,7% support. Then Russia and the fully democratically elected new government of Pukraine will sue NATO for war damages and sufferings.

- just in case someone want's to actually "negotiate" with him or believes that Putin will give up on "liberating" the Ukraine.

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## Denniss (May 8, 2022)

Why should they want snake island back at the moment? Far too many nice targets showing up there day by day.

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## Jagdflieger (May 8, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> All that ukrainian activity over Snake Island is a prelude to a landing orband attempt to force RF vacate it?


To rid it of Russian troops and equipment makes sense. It measures only 45 acres - so to occupy and hold it, I think presently won't be worth it. 
Basically it serves more the interests of Russian or Ukrainian maritime territorial claims.

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## wlewisiii (May 8, 2022)

And a little concert in the subway of Kyiv... 



I will say I am impressed by Bono & The Edge's support of Ukraine.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Why should they want snake island back at the moment? Far too many nice targets showing up there day by day.


IDK. Morale booster for Ukrainia? Morale hit to RF before V-day on 9th May? Reestablishing an outpost to guard Odesafrom an amphibious landing? A mix of all of this?

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## Denniss (May 8, 2022)

if they would recapture snake island they would also have to pretect it from the russians getting it back so a morale boost would not change into morale loss.
With limited ukrainian assets its better to wait for the next russian target trying to sneak in reinforcements.
Though they have to prevent Anti-Air assets from reaching snake island as that would endanger ukrainian air activity over this region.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> if they would recapture snake island they would also have to pretect it from the russians getting it back so a morale boost would not change into morale loss.
> With limited ukrainian assets its better to wait for the next russian target trying to sneak in reinforcements.
> Though they have to prevent Anti-Air assets from reaching snake island as that would endanger ukrainian air activity over this region.



Agreed, it has more utility as a target magnet right now.

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## Dimlee (May 8, 2022)

Press conference with the defenders of Azovstal/Mariupol.
Mostly in English.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 8, 2022)

_ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine, May 8 (Reuters) - As many as 60 people were feared to have been killed in the Russian bombing of a village school in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, the regional governor said on Sunday.

[...]

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai said the school in Bilohorivka, where about 90 people were sheltering, was hit on Saturday by a Russian bomb that set the building ablaze for four hours.


"Thirty people were evacuated from the rubble, seven of whom were injured. Sixty people were likely to have died," Gaidai wrote on the Telegram messaging app, adding that two dead bodies had been found.

Reuters could not immediately verify his account._









Sixty feared dead in bombing of Ukraine school; G7 condemns Putin


Luhansk region Governor Serhiy Gaidai said the school in Bilohorivka, where about 90 people were sheltering, was hit on Saturday by a Russian bomb, setting it ablaze.




www.reuters.com






... and:

_
May 8 (Reuters) - Ukrainian troops retreated from the eastern Ukrainian city of Popasna, the governor of Luhansk region said on Sunday, confirming previous reports that it had been taken.

The head of Russia's republic of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, had said on Sunday his troops had taken control of most of Popasna.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai told Ukraine television that Ukrainian troops had retreated to take up more fortified positions, adding: "Everything was destroyed there."_









Ukraine troops retreat from Popasna, Luhansk governor confirms


Ukrainian troops retreated from the eastern Ukrainian city of Popasna, the governor of Luhansk region said on Sunday, confirming previous reports that it had been taken.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (May 8, 2022)

'We have taken their tanks': Meet the Ukrainian farmers who relish the chance to steal Putin's weaponry


As Vladimir Putin's army invaded, photos and videos of broken-down Russian tanks being stolen by farmers on tractors has delighted many Ukrainians. It's just one of the ways local farmers are fighting back against Russia's invasion.




 www.abc.net.au

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## JDCAVE (May 8, 2022)

Maybe the western countries should reinstate their embassies, but relocate them to Odessa, and...staff them with elite troops. The new title of "Ambassador-General" "Insert name here"... Of course given the state of the country they would have appropriate protection for them, "Insert hardware here" and also provide protective naval vessels, since the city is a port...

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## Admiral Beez (May 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Still unconfirmed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We’re getting close to being able to confirm either way.



Ukraine shares proof of second Russian warship ‘Admiral Makarov’s’ destruction | Video


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## Dimlee (May 8, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Maybe the western countries should reinstate their embassies, but relocate them to Odessa, and...staff them with elite troops. The new title of "Ambassador-General" "Insert name here"... Of course given the state of the country they would have appropriate protection for them, "Insert hardware here" and also provide protective naval vessels, since the city is a port...


They will need a lot of hardware. Any spare NASAMS?
Odesa became a new target for orcs. 14 missiles yesterday, 3 today.
Edit: 9 missiles today (May 8).

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## buffnut453 (May 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We’re getting close to being able to confirm either way.
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine shares proof of second Russian warship ‘Admiral Makarov’s’ destruction | Video



Unfortunately, there's zero proof in that video about Admiral Makarov. The vessel attacked in the Bayraktar video is clearly a landing craft and not a vessel the size of Makarov. 

I'm still perplexed at the lack of "Na-na, na-na-nah!" from Moscow that I'd fully expect if all was well with that ship. The sheer lack of any information for 2 days now is frustrating to say the least.

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## MiTasol (May 8, 2022)

The second part of this article covers a lot of items that tend to be forgotten in this war. Not mentioned is that Russia has a long history of targeting civilians and starving people to death. See the post above on how the Molotov cocktail was named for one of a proverbial million examples available

*EDIT OOOPPPS GTX posted what is probably the same syndicated article*









'We have taken their tanks': Meet the Ukrainian farmers who relish the chance to steal Putin's weaponry


As Vladimir Putin's army invaded, photos and videos of broken-down Russian tanks being stolen by farmers on tractors has delighted many Ukrainians. It's just one of the ways local farmers are fighting back against Russia's invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (May 8, 2022)

More evidence of Moscows continuing attempts to destroy the West.

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## Admiral Beez (May 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm still perplexed at the lack of "Na-na, na-na-nah!" from Moscow that I'd fully expect if all was well with that ship.


If it‘s intact perhaps Makarov will be sailed out for VE Day tomorrow.


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## MiTasol (May 8, 2022)

Maybe they have a team of film set builders/painters making repairs so that they can claim it is undamaged

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## XBe02Drvr (May 8, 2022)

Battleship Potemkin?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm still perplexed at the lack of "Na-na, na-na-nah!" from Moscow that I'd fully expect if all was well with that ship. The sheer lack of any information for 2 days now is frustrating to say the least.



The silence is deafening. The Russians may be silent for several reasons:

1) the ship is sunk but they don't want to confirm that in case the Ukrainians don't have evidence.

2) the ship is damaged but they don't want to acknowledge it will be under repair, or if it can be, or what-have-you.

3) the ship is unharmed and they don't want to disrupt any misconceptions in Western intel.

All three rely on OPSEC, but I'd imagine if it was hit we already have satellite imagery of the instance. 

Why might we be quiet in that case? Perhaps we don't want the Russians to know we know. We may be wanting to cover sources and methods -- say, if there were another P-8A floating around during the strike, we might not want the Russians to know that.

You're right that it's frustrating, but the fog of war is a thing and we'll just have to keep our eyes open.

I agree that that video doesn't show any evidence of the _Makarov_ being hit. Wait and see, that's the name of the game for now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

_
Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet said on Sunday that his company would nearly double production of their javelin missiles as the U.S. has sent hundreds of the weapons to aid Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion.

"Right now, our capacity is 2,100 Javelin missiles per year. We're endeavoring to take that up to 4,000 per year, and that will take a number of months, maybe even a couple of years to get there because we have to get our supply chain to also crank up," Taiclet said on CBS's "Face the Nation." 

"We're starting now to ramp it up because we have an active production line right now that the president saw," he added, referencing President Biden's recent trip to a Lockheed Martin facility in Troy, Ala.

"So we can start turning up the heat now and- and ramping the production immediately because of those circumstances," he also said.

Taiclet said the war in Ukraine has "highlighted a couple of really important things for us," including the "need to have superior systems in large enough numbers" to meet demand and "control of the airspace."

The U.S. government has been looking to defense contractors to backfill the military's supply of weapons so the U.S. can continue to ensure Ukraine can defend itself against Moscow's forces.

Last week, the Pentagon moved $1.45 billion to the Army and Marine Corps to restock Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that the U.S. sent to Ukraine._









Lockheed Martin to ramp up javelin missile production amid Ukraine war


Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet said on Sunday that his company would nearly double production of their javelin missiles as the U.S. has sent hundreds of the weapons to aid Ukraine’s resistan…




thehill.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet said on Sunday that his company would nearly double production of their javelin missiles as the U.S. has sent hundreds of the weapons to aid Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion.
> 
> "Right now, our capacity is 2,100 Javelin missiles per year. We're endeavoring to take that up to 4,000 per year, and that will take a number of months, maybe even a couple of years to get there because we have to get our supply chain to also crank up," Taiclet said on CBS's "Face the Nation."
> 
> ...


Maybe it’s time for the US (or Ukraine) to issue Ukraine war bonds to help pay for this stuff? The flood of free arms can’t be limitless without stressing the US government and economy.


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## Snautzer01 (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Maybe it’s time for the US (or Ukraine) to issue Ukraine war bonds to help pay for this stuff? The flood of free arms can’t be limitless without stressing the US government and economy.


Plus France Engeland Germany Holland Belgium etc etc.


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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

I was pleased to see Canada sending top government folks to Ukraine. We have a lot of Ukrainians and their descendants in Canada, including my wife (and our kids, though only part, as an ex-pat Brit I’m the first non-Ukie in the extended family).









Canada’s Trudeau Meets With Zelensky in Kyiv


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Ukraine on Sunday, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and said Canada was temporarily reopening its embassy in Kyiv. The trip was unannounced. The Canadian leader was accompanied by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Foreign Minister Mél




www.wsj.com





It’s interesting that we sent both the PM and Deputy PM, in addition to the minister of foreign affairs. I can’t think of another country that sent both their leader and their successor on the same trip to an active war zone. Of course our Deputy PM is fluent in Ukrainian and Russian, and in 2014 was banned by Putin, so sending her is apt and a poke in Putin’s eye.









KGB archives show how Chrystia Freeland drew the ire (and respect) of Soviet intelligence services


Chrystia Freeland’s ties to Ukraine are no secret, but KBG archives illuminate her role in the Ukrainian independence movement during her days as a student




www.theglobeandmail.com





Freeland is Trudeau's likely success as PM when he tires of the work, and the camera (and some might say showmanship) and hits the lucrative lecture circuit with Obama. No foul there, smoke them if you‘ve got them.

I would like to see Canada deploy more forces to the Baltics or Poland asap. Our hundred odd Leopard II tanks are of no use in Canada, for example.

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Looks like Russia Today is back online here in Canada. The sloppy propaganda and bot comments are always good for a chuckle.









G7 vows to ‘not let Russia win’


The G7 has vowed to not allow Russia “win the war” against Ukraine, announcing new sanctions




www.rt.com

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## FLYBOYJ (May 9, 2022)

Ha!









Hackers replaced Russian TV schedules during Putin's 'Victory Day' parade with an anti-war message saying the blood of Ukrainians is on Russians' hands


Monday marked Russia's annual Victory Day celebrations. The message told Russian viewers "TV and the authorities are lying" about the Ukraine war.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

Best laugh of the day, apart from the words coming out of Putin's mouth, was the excuse for the absence of the flypast during the Victory Day parade. Apparently, the flypast was cancelled due to weather conditions. Here's the BBC's report with that clown Peskov making the claim:

_Ahead of Victory Day, Russia's air force was busy rehearsing over Red Square, including in Z formation - the motif of the military invasion of Ukraine.

Now we hear from Russian news agencies that the air display part of the parade has been cancelled. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, blamed it on the weather conditions._

I'm not the most experienced person on the forum but, with the possible exception of the last image, all I'm seeing weather-wise is sunshine and some broken cumulus (all photos from the BBC). That's hardly grounds for cancelling a flypast in my book. If Russian pilots can't perform a flypast in these conditions, no wonder they're sucking at operational flying!

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## Jabberwocky (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Maybe it’s time for the US (or Ukraine) to issue Ukraine war bonds to help pay for this stuff?



So far, the EU has spent, committed or allocated:

EUR1.5 billion in military aid, via the European Peace Facility
EUR1 billion in direct financial aid through the European Commission
EUR1 billion in loans through the EBRD
EUR670 million in loans through the EIB (with another EUR1.3 billion to be committed)
EUR600 million from the European emergency fund
EUR473 million in humanitarian aid and other support
EUR120 million in grant support

That's EUR3.86 billion in civilian aid (some of which will need to be paid back though) and another EUR1.5 billion in military aid. 

A further EUR8.3 billion has been committed by EU states independent of the bloc. That includes:

Poland: EUR2.5 billion
Germany: EUR2.2 billion
France: EUR2 billion
Italy: EUR500 million
Estonia: EUR220 million
Other EU states: EUR890 million 

Plus the UK has committed around USD2.2 billion and Canada has committed about USD2.1 billion.




Admiral Beez said:


> The flood of free arms can't be limitless without stressing the US government and economy.



The US has committed, as a proportion of its GDP, about 0.05% (of which some is in the form of loans and lend-lease). Estonia and Latvia meanwhile are up towards 0.8% of their GDP and Poland is above 0.4%.

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## J_P_C (May 9, 2022)

russian ambassador and his men in Warszawa today - peoples have not joined to him in celebration - at least not as he expected. And this is just red paint not blood.

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Plus the UK has committed around USD2.2 billion and Canada has committed about USD2.1 billion.


Good info, thanks for posting. I see that Canada is the highest non-European contributor as a % of GDP. It’s good to see our little (by pop) country of <38 million folks doing our part.









Infographic: The Countries Pulling Their Weight in Helping Ukraine


This chart shows the countries with the most government support to Ukraine as a share of own GDP as of May 10, 2022.




www.statista.com





Now, if we can just reach our 2% defence spending commitment to NATO.









Canada ‘not on course’ to hit 2% defence spending pledge: U.S. official - National | Globalnews.ca


Richard Mills, the U.S. chargé d'affaires, said while there have been positive spending steps by the Canadian government on defence, the view south of the border is that Canada will fall short in hitting its promised investment of two per cent of GDP on defence.




globalnews.ca

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## WARSPITER (May 9, 2022)

Also funny that Russia is having the May day parade whilst conveniently missing the fact that the victory was gained by the USSR.

This included Georgia and of course, Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Also funny that Russia is having the May day parade whilst conveniently missing the fact that the victory was gained by the USSR.
> 
> This included Georgia and of course, Ukraine.



Never underestimate Putin's capacity for hypocrisy. During today's Victory Day celebrations, he placed flowers on a memorial which had named cities including Kyiv and Odesa:
_
Here in Ukraine, people have been left outraged after seeing Russian President Vladimir Putin place flowers on a memorial to veterans including those from the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Odesa.

It took place as part of today's Victory Day parade in Moscow.

Larysa Denysenko, a Ukrainian lawyer described the incident as "rotten" on Facebook.

"There was an air alarm in Kyiv at this time," she wrote.




_

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)

Besides the economic cost of direct help (either humanitaraian or military), it is important to note that EU countries are making an extra economic effort to progressively reduce dependency on Russian coal, oil and gas. That effort may be not as visible and probably is not listed in any table, but its economic impact on EU economies may be well higher than any direct help committed so far, probably in some cases taking a direct hit of several points on the GDP

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Besides the economic cost of direct help (either humanitaraian or military), it is important to note that EU countries are making an extra economic effort to progressively reduce dependency on Russian coal, oil and gas.


Oil and coal yes, but we're not seeing any significant non-seasonal slowdown in the EU's gas purchases from Russia. This is simply because due to the EU's decision to tie themselves to Russia there is no ready alternative. How will Europe heat their homes and businesses next autumn/winter and generate electricity otherwise?









Canada has the natural gas, but can’t get LNG to Europe


As demand for LNG rises, Canada has its supply, but lacks the means to share it with others




www.theglobeandmail.com













Why Biden can't help Europe rid itself of Russian gas


"Governments don’t make deals," said the director of Tufts University's Climate Policy Lab.




www.politico.com





The ideal longterm fix is to find some natural gas reserves in a non-Russian held part of Ukraine and exploit that. This would also help to pay back the Euros for all the arms and financing during the war.









The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine’s Energy Reserves


A resolute development of Ukraine’s untapped reserves in the production, export and storage of energy would be in the interest of all sides involved.




hir.harvard.edu

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 667531
> 
> russian ambassador and his men in Warszawa today - peoples have not joined to him in celebration - at least not as he expected. And this is just red paint not blood.



This pic from the BBC gave a good impression of the reception he received:

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Best laugh of the day, apart from the words coming out of Putin's mouth, was the excuse for the absence of the flypast during the Victory Day parade. Apparently, the flypast was cancelled due to weather conditions. Here's the BBC's report with that clown Peskov making the claim:
> 
> _Ahead of Victory Day, Russia's air force was busy rehearsing over Red Square, including in Z formation - the motif of the military invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> ...


Maybe the same storm that sink the Moskva?

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Ha!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It seems some staff at a Russian media company also joined in the fun:

_Earlier we reported on how the descriptions of television programmes on smart TVs in Russia had been hacked with an anti-war message.

It appears similar messages have been posted on the website of the pro-government Russian publication Lenta - but by two members of its staff.

According to independent news site Meduza, based in Latvia, there were about 20 different messages criticising the war or the Russian leadership on Lenta's website.

It says the slogans, which have since been deleted, included:_

_"Vladimir Putin has turned into a pitiful dictator and paranoiac"_
_"Russian authorities have banned journalists from talking about the negative"_
_"Russia threatens to destroy the whole world"_
_"War makes it easier to cover up economic failures"_
_"Zelensky turned out to be cooler than Putin"_
_The material was removed from the site, but a cached version is still visible.

Meduza says they were all accompanied by the line: "Disclaimer: this material is not agreed with the leadership."

It says two employees of the pro-Kremlin publication took responsibility for the "performance", adding they were now outside Russia and had written that they would probably need jobs, lawyers and political asylum._

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oil and coal yes, but we're not seeing any significant non-seasonal slowdown in the EU's gas purchases from Russia. This is simply because due to the EU's decision to tie themselves to Russia there is no ready alternative. How will Europe heat their homes and businesses next autumn/winter and generate electricity otherwise?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm the first one that would like a much much faster disconnection from Russian gas, however the effort has been significant.

"At the outset of the war, Germany relied on Russia to meet 55 percent of its natural gas needs. Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the country has reduced that amount to 35 percent by canceling some contracts and importing more liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., from other countries.

By the end of the year, German officials said, they hope to be drawing less than a third of the country's gas from Russia."








Germany is preparing to forgo Russian gas. But a quick cutoff would hurt.


“We have to be ready for it,” the German chancellor said a day after Russia quit providing natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria.




www.nytimes.com

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



This appears not to be legit.

Folks, we really need to be careful about spreading disinformation (as opposed to unintended misinformation) here.

Just because it's shiny to get our attention and lines up with our wishes doesn't make it true.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Maybe it’s time for the US (or Ukraine) to issue Ukraine war bonds to help pay for this stuff? The flood of free arms can’t be limitless without stressing the US government and economy.



I like the idea of war bonds, but the US economy is about $20 trillion. The aid so far has been to $14 billion, about .07%.. The real issue is getting a continual and reliable supply of these weapons, imo.

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

And the comedy just keeps on coming. Apparently, throwing red paint at the Russian ambassador means you must be a nazi. Also, supporting freedom of expression now means you're on the path to fascism. Meanwhile, it's perfectly legitimate for the Kremlin to clamp down hard on anyone who disagrees with Putin's message. I think someone needs to buy the entire Russian leadership a dictionary so they can look up the meaning of the words they're spewing:

_The Russian foreign ministry has hit out at protesters in Poland who threw red liquid over the Russian ambassador there. (See our earlier post here)

Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova says: "Neo-Nazis have once again shown their face - and it is bloody."

Russia has today been marking its victory over Germany in 1945 - and reiterating its claims it is acting to purge modern-day Ukraine of Nazis as well.

The attack happened as Sergei Andreyev and other Russian embassy officials went to lay wreaths at a cemetery in Warsaw. It was an act of remembrance for the Soviet soldiers killed fighting Nazi Germany in occupied Poland during World War Two.

Protesters told local media the red substance - which appeared to be paint - was to represent the blood of Ukrainians shed by Russian soldiers in the present invasion.

Commenting on the attack, Zakharova accused the West of "set[ting] a course for the reincarnation of fascism"._

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## SaparotRob (May 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> . The real issue is getting a continual and reliable supply of these weapons, imo.


Any idea if the weapons supplied by the west reaching the front? I keep reading the news bits looking for western equipment but no luck.

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## GrauGeist (May 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Best laugh of the day, apart from the words coming out of Putin's mouth, was the excuse for the absence of the flypast during the Victory Day parade. Apparently, the flypast was cancelled due to weather conditions. Here's the BBC's report with that clown Peskov making the claim:
> 
> _Ahead of Victory Day, Russia's air force was busy rehearsing over Red Square, including in Z formation - the motif of the military invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> ...


Fifth photo down:
That guy looks like he just received orders to head out to the "special operation"

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Any idea if the weapons supplied by the west reaching the front? I keep reading the news bits looking for western equipment but no luck.



I read an article last night which interviewed railroadmen in Ukraine. The Russians are apparently targeting the rail net and its supporting power grid, but the system has proven resilient so far. Most of what they're shipping is is food right now. I'd imagine the fighting gear is probably going by trucks as that way they can be more specific about who gets what ... but there's no news on that, which makes good sense.

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## hawkeye2an (May 9, 2022)

All they show in this video are APCs and Self propelled Artillery. Not sure what else they have. Bodies alone could tip the balance.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Any idea if the weapons supplied by the west reaching the front? I keep reading the news bits looking for western equipment but no luck.


Apparently yes.

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## SaparotRob (May 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Apparently yes.



I've seen this clip before I think, despite the date stamp. I was hoping for a larger display of fire power.


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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

R
 RogerdeLluria
You're posting a lot of unsubstantiated tweets from Twitter. This is hardly a reliable source of anything.

How to avoid falling for and spreading misinformation about Ukraine


https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/24/tips-avoid-misinformation-ukraine/



Slow down!Do not hit that share button. Social media is built for things to go viral, for users to quickly retweet before they're even done reading the words they're amplifying.

Check the sourceLook at who is sharing the information.

Make a collection of trusted sourcesTrust the professionals. Legitimate mainstream news organizations are built to vet these things for you.

Seek out contextTry to augment all these one-off clips or stories with broader context about what is happening.

Vet videos and imagesLook for multiple edits and odd cuts, listen closely to the audio and run it through a third-party tool such as InVid, which helps check the authenticity of videos.

Use fact-checking sites and toolsKeep an eye out for content warnings on social media sites for individual posts. Look up individual stories or images on fact-checking sites.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I've seen this clip before I think, despite the date stamp. I was hoping for a larger display of fire power.


There is a similar one of reportedly Ukrainians training in germany.

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## J_P_C (May 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Any idea if the weapons supplied by the west reaching the front? I keep reading the news bits looking for western equipment but no luck.


yes - today i've seen movie with Ukrainian ULH -Ukrainian crew worked pretty nicely - i would say best NATO standards

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## J_P_C (May 9, 2022)

- here it is


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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> - here it is



That's a video of an artillery gun, yes. But where? When? Has this vid been substantiated in any way? When in doubt.

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## J_P_C (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's video of an artillery gun, yes. But where? When? Has this vid been substantiated in any way? When in doubt.


has been described as a "first combat use of american gun"


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## J_P_C (May 9, 2022)

more....


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## Greg Boeser (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> R
> RogerdeLluria
> You're posting a lot of unsubstantiated tweets from Twitter. This is hardly a reliable source of anything.
> 
> ...


And keep in mind that even so-called reliable sites are susceptible to confirmation bias, agenda-pushing and suppressing inconvenient information that is counter-narrative.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Apparently yes.




Fornication affirmative!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

_
After an assault on Kyiv was defeated in March by strong Ukrainian resistance, Russia poured more troops in for a huge offensive in the east last month. But Russian gains have been slow at best, and Western arms are flooding into Ukraine for an expected counter-attack.

Western military experts - many of whom initially predicted a quick Russian victory - now say Moscow could be running out of fresh troops. A full declaration of war would let Putin activate reservists and send conscripts.

"What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn't declare war, or a general mobilisation, that's what (is) important," tweeted Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at Britain's University of St Andrews.

"Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can't fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine."_









Putin's Victory Day speech gives no clue on Ukraine escalation


President Vladimir Putin exhorted Russians to battle in a defiant Victory Day speech on Monday, but was silent about plans for any escalation in Ukraine, despite Western warnings he might use his Red Square address to order a national mobilisation.




www.reuters.com





Never mind the fact that he's already been using conscripts. I agree that if he doesn't call up reserves he won't have the manpower to take and hold Ukraine.

Thinking about this this morning, it seems to me that the closer Russia edges to defeat, the closer we are to seeing them deploy WMDs of one sort or the other.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

And --

_
Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow's new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops "refusing to obey orders," a senior U.S. defense official said Monday. 

"We still see anecdotal reports of poor morale of troops, indeed officers, refusing to obey orders and move and not really sound command and control from a leadership perspective," the official told reporters. 

The official later said "midgrade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level" either have refused to obey orders "or are not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey." 

Russian forces have struggled to make major gains in the Donbas region of Ukraine since beginning a new offensive in the area last month. 

On top of dealing with morale issues that have lingered since the start of the war on Feb. 24, the Kremlin also is struggling to resupply its troops and move its weapons and equipment in muddy spring weather, the official said. 

Still, Moscow continues to send operational battalion tactical groups (BTGs) into Ukraine, with 97 such groups in the country, up from 92 late last month, according to the official. Each BTG typically consists of about 700 to 800 soldiers. _









Pentagon: Russian military continues to struggle with poor morale, refusal to obey orders


Russian forces have not made any significant progress in Moscow’s new offensive in eastern Ukraine, a situation partly due to poor morale and some troops “refusing to obey orders,” a senior U.S. de…



thehill.com





This struck me as germane considering the debate upthread about how many Russian troops were in-country. It also underscores the continuing Russian difficulty with logistics.

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## GTX (May 9, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...it seems to me that the closer Russia edges to defeat, the closer we are to seeing them deploy WMDs of one sort or the other.


It won't be a tactical nuke, but I wouldn't rule out a chemical weapon attack. Of course the prevailing wind would send any large strike straight into the Donbas region. A smaller chemical attack, like we saw in Iraq or Syria can't really be considered a WMD attack.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> A smaller chemical attack, like we saw in Iraq or Syria can't really be considered a WMD attack.



I'd disagree, considering that chemical weapons are considered part of the triad of NBC WMDs. Even a small chemical attack, if verified, is using a WMD.

Their use in Syria, and earlier in the Iran-Iraq war, wasn't punished because no one gave a damn about the folks killed so much as to take action. I think that'll be a little different here.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 9, 2022)

_In the Donbas, the Russian effort is described as "incremental and somewhat anemic." The Russians have relied on their traditional doctrine, which calls for artillery shelling to soften up Ukrainian positions in advance of a Russian ground offensive._









Russia celebrates the end of World War II as Putin justifies starting a war in Ukraine


Orange and black ribbons are draped across Russia to celebrate Victory Day, which marks the end of World War II. President Vladimir Putin used the opportunity to justify the invasion of Ukraine in a speech that repeated a series of false claims.



www.npr.org





1917 called, it wants its tactics back.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 9, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> View attachment 667558


Another fiasco to note in Uncle Vlad account

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## MiTasol (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was pleased to see Canada sending top government folks to Ukraine. We have a lot of Ukrainians and their descendants in Canada, including my wife (and our kids, though only part, as an ex-pat Brit I’m the first non-Ukie in the extended family).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I am amazed and shocked that media tart Trudeau did not wear a Zelensky fleece and T shirt and I am even more surprised that he took Chrystia Freeland with him and shared the "glory" with any Canadian that has a higher profile in Ukraine than he does.


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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I am even more surprised that he took Chrystia Freeland with him and shared the "glory" with any Canadian that has a higher profile in Ukraine than he does.


Well, he could’ve brought our most famous Ukrainian (combined with Belarusian), Wayne Gretzky.

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## MiTasol (May 9, 2022)

Interesting link to aid by various countries. What is interesting to me is that small countries like Estonia are outperforming big countries on both % of GDP and on a per population basis. Estonia has only 1.3 million residents.

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## MiTasol (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, he could’ve brought our most famous Ukrainian (combined with Belarusian), Wayne Gretzky.


Naahh - definitely too much photo op competition to have him as well.


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## SaparotRob (May 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Naahh - definitely too much photo op competition to have him as well.


"Hey! Who's the guy standing next to the Great Gretzky?"

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd disagree, considering that chemical weapons are considered part of the triad of NBC WMDs. Even a small chemical attack, if verified, is using a WMD.
> 
> Their use in Syria, and earlier in the Iran-Iraq war, wasn't punished because no one gave a damn about the folks killed so much as to take action. I think that'll be a little different here.


What would the reaction of the US and NATO be in this case? There’s still no Article 5 to fall back on. My guess is some NATO members would want to march into Ukraine right up to the pre-Feb 2022 borders, whilst others will want to do nothing.

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## buffnut453 (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would the reaction of the US and NATO be in this case? There’s still no Article 5 to fall back on. My guess is some NATO members would want to march into Ukraine right up to the pre-Feb 2022 borders, whilst others will want to do nothing.



It rather depends on where any such weapons are employed. If there's risk of WMD effects spreading beyond the borders of Ukraine, then it'll be a red line for most if not all NATO members and I think it would trigger an Article 5 discussion. 

Things get a little more ticklish if the WMD is used well within Ukrainian borders with no risk of it spreading outside the country...although hawks within NATO (probably led by the US and UK) would still view it as a red line. Hungary and others may take a different view.

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## Glider (May 9, 2022)

The fact that they haven't been used yet when Russia has been more than happy to deploy Chemical weapons against civilian targets is almost astonishing. I wouldn't mind placing a bet on the Russians already having been told that if they use them, then there will be consequences. 
In any war there are backdoor conversations

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## JDCAVE (May 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> The fact that they haven't been used yet when Russia has been more than happy to deploy Chemical weapons against civilian targets is almost astonishing. I wouldn't mind placing a bet on the Russians already having been told that if they use them, then there will be consequences.
> In any war there are backdoor conversations


Yes! That’s almost certainly the case. They’ve been informed that it’s a red line.

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> The fact that they haven't been used yet when Russia has been more than happy to deploy Chemical weapons against civilian targets is almost astonishing. I wouldn't mind placing a bet on the Russians already having been told that if they use them, then there will be consequences


It will be hard to argue that you’re invading to save the local Russian-speaking populace when you’ve just gas them. Mind you, blowing their cities to sh#t doesn’t help that either.

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## Crimea_River (May 9, 2022)

Except your citizens are never told the truth.

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## Admiral Beez (May 9, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Except your citizens are never told the truth.


The young ones, like every other young adult in the world with a smart phone or web access and a VPN know the truth. That’s going to be Putin’s problem, he can’t as easily control the minds of his subjects.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 9, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And keep in mind that even so-called reliable sites are susceptible to confirmation bias, agenda-pushing and suppressing inconvenient information that is counter-narrative.



Pretty much all of them…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It won't be a tactical nuke, but I wouldn't rule out a chemical weapon attack. Of course the prevailing wind would send any large strike straight into the Donbas region. A smaller chemical attack, like we saw in Iraq or Syria can't really be considered a WMD attack.



Hopefully he doesn’t, because that is a thin red line I think that will force NATOs hand. Very dangerous indeed…

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## wlewisiii (May 10, 2022)



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## pgeno71 (May 10, 2022)

Maybe were finally have an answer...

A Journalist Just Spotted Russia’s ‘Admiral Makarov’ Frigate, Intact And At Sea

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would the reaction of the US and NATO be in this case? There’s still no Article 5 to fall back on. My guess is some NATO members would want to march into Ukraine right up to the pre-Feb 2022 borders, whilst others will want to do nothing.



Probably. As I said weeks ago, I think any WMD use would trigger a push to impose an NFZ, which would obviously drag participating countries in.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Except your citizens are never told the truth.



True, but such indiscriminate weapons will also likely decide many of those Ukrainians who still side with Russia in this invasion to sour on the deal.

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## GrauGeist (May 10, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Maybe were finally have an answer...
> 
> A Journalist Just Spotted Russia’s ‘Admiral Makarov’ Frigate, Intact And At Sea


The journalist "spotted" the Admiral Makarov, but where are the other two?


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## MiTasol (May 10, 2022)

I think that has already happened to a large degree as Ukrainians have seen that the Russians are intent on total destruction - even in areas they want to keep for themselves. You must also remember many pro-Russian citizens turned anti very quickly.

There was one Mayor? Governor? who was very vocally pro Putin until the Russians crossed the border and he instantly turned Anti-Putin in a big way - so much so that the President Z gave him a senior role in defense of Ukraine.

I find it ironic that the people trying to kill Z use that letter to mark their equipment so that the Ukrainians car target them

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## MiTasol (May 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The young ones, like every other young adult in the world with a smart phone or web access and a VPN know the truth. That’s going to be Putin’s problem, he can’t as easily control the minds of his subjects.


But he has been brainwashing them for years so that they believe he is the only one telling the truth - just like the Chinese and Pump


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The journalist "spotted" the Admiral Makarov, but where are the other two?



Brings up another point. Since the guy was seemingly working from satellite imagery, can he be sure it's the _Makarov_ unless all three are in the shot?


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## ThomasP (May 10, 2022)

re Russian use of WMD in Ukraine and possible US/NATO reacton

The US/NATO and other allied/friendly countries have contingency plans, kind of like the old US Rainbow plans, that involve what to do in event of WMD use at various levels. And just like the Rainbow plans they are continuously reviewed and occasionally updated when things change significantly (significant changes include things like alliances, disintegration of governments in nations of concern, advances in technology, etc).

The link below does not go into details as to what the current plans are, but it gives an indication of how seriously the US/NATO view the current situation:

"U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons"


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

I'm not a subscriber and at my limit.


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## MiTasol (May 10, 2022)

What bothers me is the paragraph 

_Those contingencies are expected to be central to an extraordinary session here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 other NATO nations, who will be meeting for the first time — behind closed doors, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine._

As Pres Biden said - Vlad must be given way to save face or he will do the unthinkable. 

I fear that his version of the unthinkable includes a bunch of missiles on the NATO headquarters when all the leaders are in session.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

_
President Biden on Monday signed legislation that will make it easier for the U.S. to send military equipment to Ukraine as the Eastern European country battles the ongoing Russian invasion. 

Biden signed the bill in the Oval Office at a ceremony with Vice President Harris and members of Congress. The bill, formally known as the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022, passed Congress with bipartisan support last month. 

Biden affirmed U.S. support for the Ukrainians "in their fight to defend their country and their democracy against [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's brutal war."

"Every day Ukrainians pay with their lives," Biden said. "The cost of the fight is not cheap but caving to aggression is even more costly. That's why we're staying in this."

The bill was introduced by Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and allows the U.S. to lend or lease military equipment to Ukraine and other allies in Eastern Europe while streamlining the process to make it easier to do so. The bill revives a World War II-era policy that helped defeat Nazi Germany. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cheered the bill's signing.

"Today's signing of the law on Lend-Lease is a historic step. I am convinced that we will win together again. And we will defend democracy in Ukraine. And in Europe. Like 77 years ago," Zelensky tweeted._



https://thehill.com/news/administration/3482064-biden-signs-bill-to-expedite-military-aid-to-ukraine/



For once (and mods please forgive my slight mention) our politicians did the right goddamned thing.

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## ThomasP (May 10, 2022)

To put some of the following info in perspective - the US (and some other friendly nations to remain un-named) have/had direct ELINT and HUMINT links to information flowing between the higher-ups in Russia, for an extended period of time.

A summary of some of the content of the NY Times article I linked up-thread:

Within the US/NATO overall planning structure there is an organization specifically tasked with determining the threat of - and developing contingency plans for responding to - the use of WMD by other nations. The one dealing with the Russian war against the Ukraine is currently called the 'Tiger Team'.

The current Team was activated (officially) on 28 February (note that this was only 4 days after the start of the invasion). They meet 3x a week, and besides trying to determine/estimate what is likely to happen in the war at pretty much all levels, they are tasked with putting together a rational systematic response in response to Russian use of WMD in the Ukraine.

The Team is also tasked with determining possible responses to the Russians using conventional weapons to interdict weapons shipments to Ukraine while the shipments are still in NATO territory. Responses to Russia extending the war into neighboring countries are also being determined.

So far the analysis and contingency plans of the Tiger Team have been kept secret.

An additional bit of info. Unless I am mistaken, the use of a nuclear weapon (of any size) is outlawed by every nation in the UN - unless the nation using it is under imminent threat of being destroyed. I suspect this is why Putin is tying his vague threat of nuclear weapons to a possible "existential threat" to Russia.

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## Wildcat (May 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The young ones, like every other young adult in the world with a smart phone or web access and a VPN know the truth. That’s going to be Putin’s problem, he can’t as easily control the minds of his subjects.


Interesting article here
As Vladimir Putin continues to wage war and sanctions cripple the economy, young Russians may become more sceptical of the Kremlin

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

re threat of nuclear weapons

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Interesting article here
> As Vladimir Putin continues to wage war and sanctions cripple the economy, young Russians may become more sceptical of the Kremlin



Interesting sentence here: _There have been estimates made that 10 per cent of the country's tech workforce have relocated since the war began, which some have described as a "brain-drain"._

I'm somewhat involved in the admission process in a tech master. We have recently noticed an increased number of Russian students registering for enrollment.

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## Jagdflieger (May 10, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> .....An additional bit of info. Unless I am mistaken, the use of a nuclear weapon (of any size) is outlawed by every nation in the UN - unless the nation using it is under imminent threat of being destroyed. I suspect this is why Putin is tying his vague threat of nuclear weapons to a possible "existential threat" to Russia.


And exactly this has become a total different animal altogether, latest since April. It is no more a war in it's classical interpretation (gain of territory) but is (has) evolved into a confrontation of political systems. Those of autocratic governments (harbored and favored) by most population rich countries contra the mostly western led democratic countries.

The military threat (ABC) underlies a totally different evaluation in regards to political systems engaged in a matter of survival - then that of winning or loosing a traditional territorial
dispute - and I am not so sure about the West's firmness when it comes to a showdown in regards to the mere survival/prevalence of political/social convictions.

This confrontation is essentially something that never happened since 1945, that the two main opposing parties have brought their opposing views directly to ones borders. All other
confrontations of political/social systems have been fought 1000's of miles away from the two main protagonists borders/countries.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> View attachment 667558


 
Sweden says NATO Membership Would Strengthen Nordic Defence

Speaking to Swedish Radio, Sweden's Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said that the defence situation of the Nordic region will bolster if both Finland and Stockholm decided to join the international military alliance NATO. His remarks come as both the Nordic nations are looking forward to forwarding their applications for NATO membership anytime soon. Meanwhile, Russia has warned against the decision, saying it will redeploy nuclear missiles closer to the borders provided Finland and Sweden joined NATO.

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## Dimlee (May 10, 2022)

Ukrainian flag in Azovstal (end of the video).

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

Sanctions begin to 'bite' Russia's industrial base capabilities: Pentagon

An unnamed senior United States defence official said during a briefing on May 9 that Russia "has blown through a lot of their precision-guided munition" and continues to hit Mariupol with a lot of dumb bombs. Pentagon official also said that the sanctions have started to 'bite' Russia's industrial base capabilities. The official also said that Russia now faces difficulties replacing PGMs, and the sanctions and the export controls, particularly when it comes to electronic components, have had an effect on the Russian defence industrial base.









Russian Guided Weapons Miss the Mark, U.S. Defense Officials Say


The lack of warplanes at Russia’s Victory Day parade underscores President Vladimir V. Putin’s failure to build a capable modern air force.




www.nytimes.com

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

Speaking of sanctions impact









Russia’s Economy Facing Worst Contraction Since 1994


Russia is facing the deepest economic contraction in nearly three decades as pressure from sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies mounts, according to an internal forecast by the Finance Ministry.




www.bloomberg.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Speaking of sanctions impact
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As long as those close to Putin, including oligarchs who kept themselves and their money in Russia, and the praetorian guard are paid and fed.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)

And regarding to planes ...








Russia’s UAC to begin restoring Soviet-era jets


Russia’s main aerospace manufacturer UAC has received subsidies to remove old aircraft from storage and restore them to a flyable condition.




www.aerotime.aero

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## Jabberwocky (May 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Sanctions begin to 'bite' Russia's industrial base capabilities: Pentagon
> 
> An unnamed senior United States defence official said during a briefing on May 9 that Russia "has blown through a lot of their precision-guided munition" and continues to hit Mariupol with a lot of dumb bombs. Pentagon official also said that the sanctions have started to 'bite' Russia's industrial base capabilities. The official also said that Russia now faces difficulties replacing PGMs, and the sanctions and the export controls, particularly when it comes to electronic components, have had an effect on the Russian defence industrial base.
> 
> ...



There was an estimation in early May - I cant recall the source though - that Russia has used up ~20% of its inventory of sea launched PGMs, ~50% of its available ground launched PGMs and almost 70% of its air launched PGMs.

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## Greg Boeser (May 10, 2022)

And are down to their last 50 Spitfires.

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## WARSPITER (May 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> And regarding to planes ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting also that the Uralvagonzavod tank facility is still not doing much due to lack of supplies.

It is difficult to sustain a tank force when the major repair/ replacement facility can't do it. 

When prototype tanks are being sent in you have to wonder (T-80Bsomething) how much of what is left in reserve actually functions correctly,
or is able to be serviced to bring it up to scratch.

The shipyard in Vladivostok which was completing two supply vessels and two combat vessels has halted operations as well. Again due to
supply problems.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

_KHARKIV, Ukraine, May 10 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Tuesday its forces had recaptured villages from Russian troops north and northeast of Kharkiv, pressing a counter-offensive that could signal a shift in the war's momentum and jeopardise Russia's main advance.

Tetiana Apatchenko, press officer for the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, the main Ukrainian force in the area, confirmed that Ukrainian troops had recaptured the settlements of Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshki, Borshchova and Slobozhanske, in a pocket north of Kharkiv in recent days.

Yuriy Saks, an adviser to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the successes were pushing Russian forces out of range of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which has been under perpetual bombardment since the war began.

"The military operations of the Ukrainian armed forces around Kharkiv, especially north and northeast of Kharkiv, are sort of a success story," Saks told Reuters. "The Ukrainian army was able to push these war criminals to a line beyond the reach of their artillery."

The counterattack could signal a new phase in the war, with Ukraine now going on the offensive after weeks in which Russia mounted a massive assault without making a breakthrough.

By pushing back Russian forces who had occupied the outskirts of Kharkiv since the start of the invasion, the Ukrainians are moving into striking distance of the rear supply lines sustaining the main Russian attack force further south._









Ukraine pushes back Russian troops in counter-offensive near Kharkiv


Ukraine said on Tuesday its forces had recaptured villages from Russian troops north and northeast of the city of Kharkiv, pressing a counter-offensive that could signal a shift in the war's momentum and jeopardise Russia's main advance.




www.reuters.com





Here's hoping this report is accurate. If the Ukrainians can interdict the offensive's supply-lines, they may be able to work deeper around the flanks and cut them off.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Interesting also that the Uralvagonzavod tank facility is still not doing much due to lack of supplies.
> 
> It is difficult to sustain a tank force when the major repair/ replacement facility can't do it.
> 
> ...



Putin has to wrap this up quickly or risk long-term damage to Russia's economy, moreso than has already been incurred.

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## Glider (May 10, 2022)

I was reading that some of the Russian TV pundits are starting to go 'off message', but haven't been able to substantiate it. Anyone else picked up on this


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

_Matilda Bogner, the head of the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said there is “credible” information regarding the mistreatment of Russian prisoners by Ukrainian troops during the war. 

“We have received credible information of torture, ill-treatment and incommunicado detention by Ukrainian Armed Forces of prisoners of war belonging to the Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups,” Bogner said on Tuesday. 

The “inhumane treatment” is occurring among captured Ukrainian and Russian soldiers as they are “being coerced to make statements, apologies and confessions, and other forms of humiliation.”

“This violates fundamental rules of international humanitarian law. Ukraine and Russia must promptly and effectively investigate all allegations of torture and ill-treatment of prisoners of war,” Bogner said. “They must also effectively control and instruct their forces to stop any further violations from occurring.”

Ukraine and Russia have conducted multiple prisoner swaps throughout the war, with dozens of Ukrainians and Russians returned to their forces as a result._



https://thehill.com/policy/international/3482835-un-receiving-credible-information-about-ukrainian-troops-torturing-russian-prisoners-official-says/



Disturbing but not surprising. All these incidents should be investigated.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> I was reading that some of the Russian TV pundits are starting to go 'off message', but haven't been able to substantiate it. Anyone else picked up on this



I read Reuters and AP for international news, and neither of them are reporting this.


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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I read Reuters and AP for international news, and neither of them are reporting this.


I book marked a few sites. MSNBC reported it. What they reported seems pretty convincing. Rachel Maddow(?) put up screen images of the messages and who put it up.

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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

It was on MSNBC. Rachel Maddow's highlights week of May 9. It's the first one to pop up.


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## Dimlee (May 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Matilda Bogner, the head of the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said there is “credible” information regarding the mistreatment of Russian prisoners by Ukrainian troops during the war.
> 
> “We have received credible information of torture, ill-treatment and incommunicado detention by Ukrainian Armed Forces of prisoners of war belonging to the Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups,” Bogner said on Tuesday.
> 
> ...


There is no independent and influential body to investigate these incidents. Red Cross was mostly inept so far and it has less influence in Russian Federation than in the Third Reich during WWII. As for UN missions, they have little, if any, access to the frontlines where most of the said ill-treatment happens. And certainly, they do not see what's happening in the cities under the siege and in the occupied territories.
The best the international "peace loving' bureaucracy can do today is to help the civilians and to engage in the investigations of war crimes, there are thousands of incidents.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> There is no independent and influential body to investigate these incidents. Red Cross was mostly inept so far and it has less influence in Russian Federation than in the Third Reich during WWII. As for UN missions, they have little, if any, access to the frontlines where most of the said ill-treatment happens. And certainly, they do not see what's happening in the cities under the siege and in the occupied territories.
> The best the international "peace loving' bureaucracy can do today is to help the civilians and to engage in the investigations of war crimes, there are thousands of incidents.



Sure. I think this sort of thing happens far too often in wars, and my own country has obviously committed such mistreatments as well, so I'm not a high-horse about anything, just reporting what I'm reading. As has been noted many times in this thread, we really don't (and probably won't until it's all over) know what has really happened.

If this report is true, as I wrote above, all guilty parties should be prosecuted where possible.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It was on MSNBC. Rachel Maddow's highlights week of May 9. It's the first one to pop up.



I have to admit I don't put much stock in MSNBC as a source, but if we've got pics they should definitely inform this thread.

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## Dimlee (May 10, 2022)

Good article. There are some inaccuracies and typical cliches but, overall, a solid overview of the Ukrainian military path since 2014. From the catastrophe and humiliation of 2014 to the battlefields of 2022.








Ukraine’s Military Pulled Itself Out of the Ruins of 2014


U.S. training helps but isn’t the main reason for the transformation.




foreignpolicy.com





Some quotes:
"...the Ukrainians enjoyed the opportunity to train hard but were teaching U.S. paratroopers, sergeants, and officers more about war than they were learning."
"My assessment—that it was the United States that was unprepared for war with Russia, not Ukraine—was shared internally at this time by junior and mid-level leaders within the U.S. military itself..."
"War helped separate the wheat from the chaff—and made military corruption no longer something that one could turn a blind eye to but a threat to national survival and the survival of one's comrades."
"The general ... attributed some battlefield success to the advantage Ukraine enjoyed from deliberately transitioning authority and trust from officers to NCOs and decentralizing battlefield decision-making."
"Ukraine's military has been a hospitable place for training because its leaders hit on a similar structure and sense of purpose to U.S. and NATO armies organically in 2014-15. If they hadn't, Ukraine would have ceased to exist."

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Good article. There are some inaccuracies and typical cliches but, overall, a solid overview of the Ukrainian military path since 2014. From the catastrophe and humiliation of 2014 to the battlefields of 2022.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Devolving decision-making in combat as low as is useful is generally a good approach. Centralized decision-making often has a hard time keeping up with unfolding events, whereas the fighters on the spot are better equipped to adapt and overcome.

Of course, this requires a solid NCO corps. Ukraine seems to understand this.

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## Dimlee (May 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sure. I think this sort of thing happens far too often in wars, and my own country has obviously committed such mistreatments as well, so I'm not a high-horse about anything, just reporting what I'm reading. As has been noted many times in this thread, we really don't (and probably won't until it's all over) know what has really happened.
> 
> If this report is true, as I wrote above, all guilty parties should be prosecuted where possible.


Based on the history of the USSR, Ukraine and the Russian Federation (since 1991), I can give my prediction about the post-war investigations.
Ukraine:
Most of the accidents will be investigated, under the pressure of society and of the international organisations whose work will become again mostly unrestricted. In the most difficult cases, it will take years. In the recent past, military prosecutors worked from 1 to 3 years on some military crimes (army and volunteers) in the East. Only the turning to an authoritarian regime can stop the process, but such regimes have little chance of success in Ukraine after 2014.
Russian Federation:
In the best scenario, a couple of showcase trials. Blanket denials and massive propaganda attacks using all typical tools: whataboutism, fallacies, fakes, etc. Many of the war criminals will be awarded publicly. Some of them will become prominent figures in politics and regular guests on TV shows.
Some day, when the regime changes and the freedom of speech returns (a la "Glasnost'), there will be disclosure, public discussions, excuses... until the country goes back to the authoritarian rule.
Katyn massacre is a textbook case. From the Soviet propaganda myth to the acceptance of truth and cooperation and back to the myth again.

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## J_P_C (May 10, 2022)

probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action

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## GTX (May 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action


Based upon what measure??


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## Dimlee (May 10, 2022)

Remember the narrative "why Kremlin didn't do this and that... did not implement cyber warfare, etc.".
Of course, they did.








Russia downed satellite internet in Ukraine -Western officials


Russia was behind a massive cyberattack against a satellite internet network that took tens of thousands of modems offline at the onset of Russia-Ukraine war, the United States, Britain, Canada, Estonia and the European Union said on Tuesday.




www.reuters.com












Attribution of Russia’s Malicious Cyber Activity Against Ukraine - United States Department of State


The United States is joining with allies and partners to condemn Russia’s destructive cyber activities against Ukraine. In the months leading up to and after Russia’s illegal further invasion began, Ukraine experienced a series of disruptive cyber operations, including website defacements...




www.state.gov

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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Based upon what measure??


The “Blowing up bad guys right now“ scale?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Based on the history of the USSR, Ukraine and the Russian Federation (since 1991), I can give my prediction about the post-war investigations.
> Ukraine:
> Most of the accidents will be investigated, under the pressure of society and of the international organisations whose work will become again mostly unrestricted. In the most difficult cases, it will take years. In the recent past, military prosecutors worked from 1 to 3 years on some military crimes (army and volunteers) in the East. Only the turning to an authoritarian regime can stop the process, but such regimes have little chance of success in Ukraine after 2014.
> Russian Federation:
> ...



I think I agree. I expect, especially with Ukraine wanting to join EU and perhaps NATO, that Ukraine will be more transparent regarding these incidents. Having served in the American military, I think that sometimes we covered crap up that should have been exposed. I hope Ukraine doesn't do that, but I fully expect Russia to play the "NO U!" card once again.

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## Macandy (May 10, 2022)

There super dupers strike aircraft is the SU-34

Two shot wrecks examined had domestic satnavs fixed to the cockpit surround.
The crappy Russian nav system doesn't work or is so unreliable it cant find Ukraine

Russia Stronk!


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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

Did it at least have an 8 track cassette player?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did it at least have an 8 track cassette player?



Apparently issued with James Taylor and Carly Simon cartridges.

Needs more Black Sabbath! Attitude is _everything_.

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## hawkeye2an (May 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> And regarding to planes ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Any P-39s left? I hear they're good for ground attack

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## MiTasol (May 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Based on the history of the USSR, Ukraine and the Russian Federation (since 1991), I can give my prediction about the post-war investigations.
> Ukraine:
> Most of the accidents will be investigated, under the pressure of society and of the international organisations whose work will become again mostly unrestricted. In the most difficult cases, it will take years. In the recent past, military prosecutors worked from 1 to 3 years on some military crimes (army and volunteers) in the East. Only the turning to an authoritarian regime can stop the process, but such regimes have little chance of success in Ukraine after 2014.
> Russian Federation:
> ...



Like My Lai

Like it or lump it - this is normal in war (sorry police actions etc)

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## J_P_C (May 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Based upon what measure??


effectiveness

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## GrauGeist (May 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Based upon what measure??


Based on the ability to hit moving tanks versus hitting random apartment buildings...

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## buffnut453 (May 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Apparently issued with James Taylor and Carly Simon cartridges.
> 
> Needs more Black Sabbath! Attitude is _everything_.



From what I've seen of the Russian performance to-date, I think they're actually playing "George Jones' Greatest Hits"...or perhaps just Patsy Cline's "I Fall to Pieces" on repeat.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 10, 2022)



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## J_P_C (May 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Based on the ability to hit moving tanks versus hitting random apartment buildings...


i think scoring direct hit of the BMP running at full speed shown on movie it is something requiring lot more than just lucky day, especially that it wasn't just sole example but it was at least 4 vehicles hit with similar precision


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## buffnut453 (May 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action




And yet more crappy tactics by the Russians. 

You're under artillery fire as you proceed down the road in a tracked IFV. Do you:
(a) Stop on the road in clusters to make yourself an even better target?
(b) Use your TRACKED IFVs to disperse off the road, thus reducing the chances that major elements of your unit won't be hit?

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## Greg Boeser (May 10, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Any P-39s left? I hear they're good for ground attack


You had to go there. 
And here I was congratulating myself on my restraint.

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## Admiral Beez (May 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Given that there's a renewed offensive in the northeast, I wonder if the Ukrainians have enough manpower to both defend the Donbas and retake Mariupol.


This suggests if they had the weapons Ukraine‘s armed forces would move on relieving Mariupol.

*Zelensky says Ukraine hasn't received enough weapons to unblock Mariupol.*


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-genocide-1.6447550



But what do they need and is it realistic?

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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

It seems to me they need time. Logistics.

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## special ed (May 10, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You had to go there.
> And here I was congratulating myself on my restraint.


There are reports of them dipping into the dumb bomb stash, maybe they will have to dip into the dumb plane stash. After all, we gave them thousands and they keep and store everything.

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## Greg Boeser (May 10, 2022)

I thought they gave a bunch to Mao back in the day.


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## Admiral Beez (May 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It seems to me they need time. Logistics.


Time? Those guys in Mariupol have been trapped since March. How much times does he want?


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## Glider (May 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet more crappy tactics by the Russians.
> 
> You're under artillery fire as you proceed down the road in a tracked IFV. Do you:
> (a) Stop on the road in clusters to make yourself an even better target?
> (b) Use your TRACKED IFVs to disperse off the road, thus reducing the chances that major elements of your unit won't be hit?


Can I phone a friend or go 50/50

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## wlewisiii (May 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet more crappy tactics by the Russians.
> 
> You're under artillery fire as you proceed down the road in a tracked IFV. Do you:
> (a) Stop on the road in clusters to make yourself an even better target?
> (b) Use your TRACKED IFVs to disperse off the road, thus reducing the chances that major elements of your unit won't be hit?


I would be curious to know if the off road terrain has dried up yet. If it has, no excuse, but even if it isn't. pop smoke and/or smoke generators then back up move around, make yourself hard to see and hard to hit.

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## at6 (May 10, 2022)

I wish one of Putin's missiles could have self detonated during his sh!t parade. There would have been no loss to the world.


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## wlewisiii (May 10, 2022)

2S1 for the win. "Welcome to Ukraine!" Boom!

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## at6 (May 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> From what I've seen of the Russian performance to-date, I think they're actually playing "George Jones' Greatest Hits"...or perhaps just Patsy Cline's "I Fall to Pieces" on repeat.


Why not the song where they sing "I'm burning, I'm burning, I'm burning for you"?

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## JDCAVE (May 10, 2022)

Found this feed: Russian news in English:









Sputnik News - World News, Breaking News & Top Storie


Sputnik International is a global news agency keeping you updated on all the latest world news 24/7. Browse Sputnik for breaking news and top stories on politics, economy, social media and the most viral trends.




sputniknews.com





Evidently they are on the radio in Washington DC.

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## wlewisiii (May 10, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (May 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Time? Those guys in Mariupol have been trapped since March. How much times does he want?


How much time does it take to transport, train, form up and deploy with newly received equipment? It's been about less than two months since equipment first started arriving. Ukraine is a big place, as Putler is finding out. Massive military airlift of troops and materiel to where they're needed isn't practical at the moment so it's trucks or rail. Putting MiG-29s back together would probably take a bit more than a couple of days. I wouldn't throw in newly formed units in drips and drabs. 
I want to see a whole bunch of Leopard IIs, Challengers and Abrams under an F-16 and M-777 umbrella liberating Kherson and Mariupol too.

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## wlewisiii (May 10, 2022)

No idea on the accuracy of this but it's an interesting thought.

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## fubar57 (May 10, 2022)

Pity WHERE'S THE DAMN SARCASM EMOTICOM?

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## Greg Boeser (May 10, 2022)

I like this one.

🤣

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I would be curious to know if the off road terrain has dried up yet. If it has, no excuse, but even if it isn't. pop smoke and/or smoke generators then back up move around, make yourself hard to see and hard to hit.




What I have read indicates it's still pretty muddy.


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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I would be curious to know if the off road terrain has dried up yet. If it has, no excuse, but even if it isn't. pop smoke and/or smoke generators then back up move around, make yourself hard to see and hard to hit.



Agreed...plus it's possible the road had embankments or other obstacles (which may be why it was selected as a kill zone). However, as you rightly point out, they should have done SOMETHING. Instead, they just clump together and sit there waiting to be hit. Doesn't make sense to me. Then again, if you've indoctrinated your soldiers to wait for orders before acting, you may end up with exactly the sort of response we saw in that video...just a complete lack of tactical gumption.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How much time does it take to transport, train, form up and deploy with newly received equipment? It's been about less than two months since equipment first started arriving. Ukraine is a big place, as Putler is finding out. Massive military airlift of troops and materiel to where they're needed isn't practical at the moment so it's trucks or rail. Putting MiG-29s back together would probably take a bit more than a couple of days. I wouldn't throw in newly formed units in drips and drabs.
> I want to see a whole bunch of Leopard IIs, Challengers and Abrams under an F-16 and M-777 umbrella liberating Kherson and Mariupol too.



Yep. Fight the defensive battle to buy time to get these units up to snuff on their new gear, get them together, and then hit 'em with a Sunday punch. Half-assed offensives have a bad habit of stalling out.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What I have read indicates it's still pretty muddy.


Especially for HEAVY vehicles with ground chewing treads and differential steering.

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## ThomasP (May 11, 2022)

The road in the video is on a raised roadbed and is typical of the area. Once off road it is problematic as to getting a heavy tracked or wheeled vehicle back on the road like that - not even counting if the the ground is still soft.

Also, depending on what the RF prior experience has been so far, they may have standing orders not to leave the road immediately. Standard training back in the early 1980s was (if possible) to lay mines off the road in the area where the ambush (whether by artillery or direct fire) was to take place. Depending on what material you had, if you could you might place a mine or 2 on the road, and a bunch off the road in the areas where you figured they would go off-road. Once the front of the column is stopped the rest of the column slows down or stops, making it easier to target them with artillery. Precision large artillery rounds can take the place of the mines on the road as a goad to move off-road.

Being inside a buttoned-up tank (after the first 1 or 2 artillery rounds anyway) under artillery fire makes it very difficult to know what the tactical situation is - the visibility from inside most tanks is atrocious. My understanding is that the majority (80%-90%) of the RF tanks and APC/IFVs do not have thermal sights/observation sets. With the smoke and dust from the explosions you may not even be able to see the road in front of you. Deploying smoke in a direct fire engagement would nearly always make sense. Deploying smoke in the situation in the video might make the tanker's situational awareness even worse (unless the intent was to abandon the vehicle and run away or find cover).

It appears to me that their only options were to advance down the road or retreat back up the road. And in fact the one IFV/APC at first tried to speed up the road in the lower left part of the screen, later appearing going back the way it came. Did anyone else notice the rear units in the column speeding back the way they had come (upper right area toward the end of the video)?

I counted as least 6 destroyed vehicles in the still shots at the end of the video.

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## Jabberwocky (May 11, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> Found this feed: Russian news in English:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Use caution with Sputnik - it's a state owned news agency, and not a particularly reliable one, even by Russian standards. 

I work for an independent aviation/aerospace media outfit, and Sputnik is flagged *red* (the worst category) on our sourcing database. The description is "questionable source - never use unless confirmed by other independent sources".

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Use caution with Sputnik - it's a state owned news agency, and not a particularly reliable one, even by Russian standards.


No caution needed. Both Sputnik and RT banned in EU so not possible to read their disinformation crap.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine


The United States has committed more than $4.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $3.8 billion since the beginning of



www.defense.gov





On the other hand, an example of the corruption level in russia.








Russian 'doomsday' plane's radio equipment stolen by thieves


Russian media say thieves broke into an Il-80 aircraft, which can be used as a nuclear command centre.



www.bbc.com





I wonder if Russian nuclear weapons still have some Plutonium left, lol.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Not sure if it has been previously discussed here. Being an aircraft forum maybe even in another thread. But it's certainly puzzling me.

Russian Mig-29 with civilian GPS attached






Russian Su-34 with civilian Garmin entry level GPS





Russian Su-25SM3 with another civilian Garmin GPS

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## Denniss (May 11, 2022)

Regarding Snake Island, in a previous post I said no need to recapture if russians send fresh targets each and every day


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61404062?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=627b48a1c6835775caca7d13%26Fighting%20continuing%20on%20Snake%20Island%20-%20UK%20Ministry%20of%20Defence%262022-05-11T06%3A23%3A52.588Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c4cbdcf9-c5c7-4e72-9d63-dde584edeb3d&pinned_post_asset_id=627b48a1c6835775caca7d13&pinned_post_type=share

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Regarding Snake Island, in a previous post I said no need to recapture if russians send fresh targets each and every day
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61404062?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=627b48a1c6835775caca7d13%26Fighting%20continuing%20on%20Snake%20Island%20-%20UK%20Ministry%20of%20Defence%262022-05-11T06%3A23%3A52.588Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c4cbdcf9-c5c7-4e72-9d63-dde584edeb3d&pinned_post_asset_id=627b48a1c6835775caca7d13&pinned_post_type=share


Definitely, it may become Chornobaivka season 2. For those who don't know about Chornobaivka a quick summary: Airport in Kherson controlled by Russians. Russians use it as equipment depot and Ukrainians shell it. Rinse and repeat. I think they iterated up to 18 times so far. 2022 Chornobaivka attacks - Wikipedia

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## MiTasol (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure if it has been previously discussed here. Being an aircraft forum maybe even in another thread. But it's certainly puzzling me.
> 
> Russian Mig-29 with civilian GPS attached
> View attachment 667851
> ...



Love that second one - the Garmin held on with a "dime store" g clamp. Great for the compass, especially of the clamp is magnetic.

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## Denniss (May 11, 2022)

They killed generals in Kherson but I highly doubt they will get some in Snake island. But killing some naval vessels is not bad either. They just have to absolutely prevent AA defense system from reaching the island. I fear a bit the russians may try larger reinforce ops in bad weather

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

Russia planning to annex new areas of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence finds


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/02/russian-annex-territory-invasion/



I think if annexation goes ahead Ukraine will have a very hard time regaining these territories in the eventual peace negotiations.

UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland








UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland


British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday said he had agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security, pledging to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.




www.reuters.com





NATO will be next I assume. 









Labour calls for increase in defence spending


Russia’s invasion demonstrates significant new threats lay much closer to home, says shadow defence secretary




www.theguardian.com





It is interesting to see how Putin has made Britain's military a top priority. British Generals and Admirals likely raised a glass to Galtieri in 1982 and again to Putin in 2022.

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The road in the video is on a raised roadbed and is typical of the area. Once off road it is problematic as to getting a heavy tracked or wheeled vehicle back on the road like that - not even counting if the the ground is still soft.
> 
> Also, depending on what the RF prior experience has been so far, they may have standing orders not to leave the road immediately. Standard training back in the early 1980s was (if possible) to lay mines off the road in the area where the ambush (whether by artillery or direct fire) was to take place. Depending on what material you had, if you could you might place a mine or 2 on the road, and a bunch off the road in the areas where you figured they would go off-road. Once the front of the column is stopped the rest of the column slows down or stops, making it easier to target them with artillery. Precision large artillery rounds can take the place of the mines on the road as a goad to move off-road.
> 
> ...



True enough. Agree entirely with everything you said. It just seemed like the Russian forces took a long time to respond, and the response appeared disjointed. As you observed, one vehicle seemed to speed up to try and escape the field of fire but others stopped and clustered. It just seemed to me that their tactical drills weren't very well practiced. 

Again, some of this comes down to armoured convoys proceeding without support. As you note, situational awareness from within a buttoned-up tank is abysmal. Armour needs ride-along infantry or other overwatch capabilities (e.g. drones) to provide command awareness so that responses can be correctly coordinated.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Armour needs ride-along infantry or other overwatch capabilities (e.g. drones) to provide command awareness so that responses can be correctly coordinated.


The Russians need to sort out how to jam these UAF drones. 









The Big 'Show-Down' Of Drones – Decoding Why Super-Power Russia Is Losing The UAV War To An Impuissant Ukraine


Russia-Ukraine War - Russians are still on the battlefield, nearly two months after Ukraine invasion has caused damage to Moscow’s reputation




eurasiantimes.com





And where are the Russian's attack helicopters and their own drones? Why aren't the Russians modifying their tactics in the face of these continued drone guided losses? Unless.... these vids are the exception, that most Russian tank columns get through to their objectives without issue. Confirmation bias and wishful thinking is strong.


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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

The Russian military does not have a tradition of encouraging independent thought.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

So beautiful !!! Can't stop watching again and again.



Interior of another T-72B3 penetrated by a hollow charge. Notice western equipment, which explains why sanctions may have stopped production.
Anyone knows what is that Thales box? Doesn't seem anything particularly sophisticated.

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Interesting quotes from Russian newspapers about Putin's Victory Day speech:

_"Our soldiers and officers are saving the world from Nazism, just like our grandfathers and our great grandfathers once did," declares the tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The pro-Kremlin press continues to promote the false Kremlin narrative that Russia sent its troops into Ukraine to fight Nazis, who are supposedly being backed by the West.

"Hitler's former allies are now arming Ukraine," writes Komsomolskaya Pravda. "The whole of Europe armed Hitler, just like it's arming Zelensky. The economic power of Europe worked for the German fascists. Today it's working for Ukrainian Nazis."

The language is extraordinary. But the objective is clear.

The Russian authorities want the Russian public to think of President Zelensky - Ukraine's Jewish President - as a Hitler-like figure to justify the Kremlin's military operation.

What will be Vladimir Putin's next move in Ukraine? Moskovsky Komsomolets concludes:

"He's not about to retreat. He's prepared for a long, protracted fight. He doesn't care how long it takes."_


The language really is quite breathtaking. Let's ignore for a moment that, apart from the pact with fascist Italy, the closest thing Hitler had to an Ally in Europe in 1939 was the USSR (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact). Also, suggesting that the US and UK armed Hitler and hence were allies of the Nazis is so laughable it's beyond belief. Unfortunately, if that's the only message that ever reaches Russian eyes/ears, then it's likely to be believed.

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## Wildcat (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure if it has been previously discussed here. Being an aircraft forum maybe even in another thread. But it's certainly puzzling me.


News article highlighting the use of civilian GPS on Russian aircraft.
Wrecked Russian fighter planes found with rudimentary GPS receivers ‘taped to dashboards’

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Interesting reporting about Ukrainian advances in the north:









Ukraine war: Russia pushed back from Kharkiv - report from front line


Correspondent Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian troops as they advance.



www.bbc.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> So beautiful !!! Can't stop watching again and again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The pieces of human flesh at the bottom are a gruesome reminder of the horrors of war.

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## JDCAVE (May 11, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Use caution with Sputnik - it's a state owned news agency, and not a particularly reliable one, even by Russian standards.
> 
> I work for an independent aviation/aerospace media outfit, and Sputnik is flagged *red* (the worst category) on our sourcing database. The description is "questionable source - never use unless confirmed by other independent sources".


Thanks. I figured that as well. I believe Sputnik is the only one still operating in the US.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interior of another T-72B3 penetrated by a hollow charge. Notice western equipment, which explains why sanctions may have stopped production.
> *Anyone knows what is that Thales box?* Doesn't seem anything particularly sophisticated.


I may have found the answer in this 2014 tweet.
If they are right this is Thales fire control. Still not sure about its exact mission and functionality¡. Anyone Tank savvy?


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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I may have found the answer in this 2014 tweet.
> If they are right this is Thales fire control. Still not sure about its exact mission and functionality¡. Anyone Tank savvy?



It's not a fire control system, but an optronic setter for the Thales Catherine FC and XP thermal imaging cameras

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

I just can't imagine being a sales rep for Russian military hardware. Unless your intended opponents are civilians or you just have no other options, no one is going to want your sh#t unless it's deeply discounted or with substantial incentives/strings attached.

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## vikingBerserker (May 11, 2022)

Or they just start selling practice targets.

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Interesting....
_
A Russian soldier will stand trial for committing an alleged war crime in Ukraine, for the first time since the war began on 24 February, according to Ukraine's prosecutor-general.

Iryna Venediktova said the man, who is currently in custody, is accused of killing an unarmed civilian in the Sumy region of Ukraine.

It followed a police investigation into the Russian military for "violating the laws and customs of war" and for "premeditated murder".

Her office said the soldier was in custody. He has not commented.

Separately, last month, Venediktova launched a hunt for 10 Russian soldiers accused of war crimes in Bucha - the town outside of the capital Kyiv where civilians were tortured, raped and murdered._

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## WARSPITER (May 11, 2022)

As Jagdflieger posted the Thales for the T-72 is a thermal imaging system for use in the fire control system. 

These are French made and supplied.

The 2014 sanctions against sales to Russia by EU countries of weapons / munitions had a loophole that allowed
sales under contracts made before 1 August 2014 to continue.

Since 2014 around ten EU countries continued to sell to Russia.

France and Germany were the biggest sellers accounting for 44% and 35% respectively.

It wasn't until 8th April this year that the loophole was closed.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

More on snake island









How The Russian Navy Is Losing Dominance: The Curse Of Snake Island - Naval News


One of Russia's first moves in its invasion of Ukraine was the capture of Snake Island. Two months later they are desperately struggling to keep it. This is a sign of their weakening dominance over the Northern Black Sea.




www.navalnews.com





Meanwhile Russia claims Ukraine tried to take back snake island, but have not seen other sources confirming this. Honestly Russian claims for Ukrainian loses are hard to believe.

_Russia said Ukrainian forces had attempted to retake the island on May 8, the eve of Russia's Victory Day anniversary celebrations over Nazi Germany in World War II.
"This adventure ended in disaster for Ukraine," said Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.

Konashenkov said *Ukraine lost four aircraft, 10 helicopters, 29 drones, three armoured assault craft and over 50 "Ukrainian saboteurs*" in the fight for the island. He *eight Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones were shot down* over two days this week._

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## wlewisiii (May 11, 2022)

"Pop goes the weasel"

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

More whiney bitchery from Russia....
_
Russia has demanded a formal apology from Poland, and threatened future reprisals, for a protest on Monday in which an ambassador was doused with what appeared to be red paint in a Warsaw cemetery.

Moscow's ambassador to Poland, Sergey Andreyev, was surrounded by people protesting against Russia's invasion of Ukraine as he went to lay flowers at a ceremony for Soviet soldiers killed in the Second World War.

A decision on further steps will be taken "depending on Warsaw's reaction to our demands", the Russian Foreign Ministry said on its website._


I have to admit, it was a gutsy move by the Russian Ambassador to visit a Soviet WW2 war cemetery in Warsaw. After all, the USSR worked with Hitler to invade Poland and divide the spoils. I'm guessing that little piece of history is not part of the Kremlin-sanctioned official narrative about WW2.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> "Pop goes the weasel"



The Chinese have the exact same design flaw in their own tanks.

Even their latest Type 99 MBT has the below turret carousel magazine and auto loader based on the T-72. The below suggests they're well aware of the issue.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> After all, the USSR worked with Hitler to invade Poland and divide the spoils. I'm guessing that little piece of history is not part of the Kremlin-sanctioned official narrative about WW2.


I sometimes wonder what Britain and France, having guaranteed Poland's security would have done had Stalin jumped the gun on Hitler and invaded Poland two weeks before Germany. But that's a topic for another thread... hmmm, what if ideas are brewing now.

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> _Konashenkov said *Ukraine lost four aircraft, 10 helicopters, 29 drones, three armoured assault craft and over 50 "Ukrainian saboteurs*" in the fight for the island. He *eight Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones were shot down* over two days this week._


I had heard about this as well - but Ukrainian losses claimed by Russia were 2 aircraft, 4 helicopters and 4-6 TB2 drones.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I had heard about this as well - but Ukrainian losses claimed by Russia were 2 aircraft, 4 helicopters and 4-6 TB2 drones.


Guess it keeps growing ...

Also read on some pro-russian channels that 
/conspiracy-theory-start
The foiled Ukranian assault on Snake island was engineered by US and UK officials. And that they (The US and UK officials) where captured while assaulting Snake island by Wagner group. And that those officials are right now being tortured by Wagner group.
/conspiracy-theory-end

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I sometimes wonder what Britain and France, having guaranteed Poland's security would have done had Stalin jumped the gun on Hitler and invaded Poland two weeks before Germany. But that's a topic for another thread... hmmm, what if ideas are brewing now.



In short...nothing. The guarantees offered to Poland by Britain and France were only against German aggression. There was a secret annex to the agreement which explicitly made this distinction, and Warsaw was fully aware of it.

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Guess it keeps growing ...
> 
> Also read on some pro-russian channels that
> /conspiracy-theory-start
> ...



Again, the hypocrisy. For years, Moscow has claimed that the Wagner Group is nothing to do with Russia's military operations. Now, apparently, they're front-and-centre. 

Also, please show us these US and UK officials that were captured. Let's have names, please, and photos so these nonsense claims can be verified. This is another unintended consequence of thinking that you can "own" the narrative. Will claims of US and UK involvement in Snake Island increase demands from the Russian people to retaliate and commence operations against US and UK forces?

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More whiney bitchery from Russia....
> 
> _Russia has demanded a formal apology from Poland, and threatened future reprisals, for a protest on Monday in which an ambassador was doused with what appeared to be red paint in a Warsaw cemetery.
> 
> ...


I guess Poland's apology will be something like "Russian ambassador go fuck yourself"
As far as I know Poland is one of the countries showing a harder stance in front of Russia, hardly surprising considering History and Putin's imperialistic dreams.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Again, the hypocrisy. For years, Moscow has claimed that the Wagner Group is nothing to do with Russia's military operations. Now, apparently, they're front-and-centre.
> 
> Also, please show us these US and UK officials that were captured. Let's have names, please, and photos so these nonsense claims can be verified. This is another unintended consequence of thinking that you can "own" the narrative. Will claims of US and UK involvement in Snake Island increase demands from the Russian people to retaliate and commence operations against US and UK forces?


Have in mind that those conspiracy theories are not for us, they are for internal consumption.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

Is there anyway to get supplies to the garrison at Mariupol? It's on the shoreline and with multiple vessels lost or damaged the Russians clearly don't have risk-free supremacy over the sea. Nor do the Russians have risk-free air superiority.









A Thousand Ukrainian Troops Are Under Siege In Mariupol. Drones Can’t Save Them.


The U.K. is donating cargo drones to Ukraine. There’s an obvious application for these flying robots: sneaking supplies to the Ukrainian troops holed up in the Azovstol steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol. Here's why it wouldn't be much help.




www.forbes.com





_"The United Kingdom is donating to Ukraine a consignment of cargo drones. There's an obvious application for these flying robots: sneaking supplies to the thousand or so Ukrainian troops who, for more than two months, have defended the vast Azovstol steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol. *It won't work*—not for the food, water and small-arms ammunition that are the staples of urban siege warfare. "_

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Have in mind that those conspiracy theories are not for us, they are for internal consumption.



I know...but Putin needs to be careful that he doesn't whip up too much animosity towards the US and UK. There's a genuine risk it could backfire on him.

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## GrauGeist (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More whiney bitchery from Russia....
> 
> _Russia has demanded a formal apology from Poland, and threatened future reprisals, for a protest on Monday in which an ambassador was doused with what appeared to be red paint in a Warsaw cemetery.
> 
> ...


So what does Russia have in mind in the way of "future reprisals" for Poland, a "special operation" to root out Nazis there, too?

I'm pretty sure Poland isn't going to lose any sleep over Russia's threats.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Out of curiosity, would an amphibious assault ship be banned from the Black Sea by Turkey? A few nations classify ships that look like aircraft carriers as cruisers or destroyers of some sort even though V/STOL combat aircraft operate from them. I'm sure that has something to do with the future submarine Kusnetsov classification by Russia.


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## Glider (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure if it has been previously discussed here. Being an aircraft forum maybe even in another thread. But it's certainly puzzling me.
> 
> Russian Mig-29 with civilian GPS attached
> View attachment 667851
> ...


You couldn't have made this stuff up. If anyone said before the invasion started, that the Russian Air Force would rely on basic low grade civilian GPS, I would have wanted to know what they were smoking.
The SU34 cockpit looks quite modern.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So what does Russia have in mind in the way of "future reprisals" for Poland, a "special operation" to root out Nazis there, too?
> 
> I'm pretty sure Poland isn't going to lose any sleep over Russia's threats.


Maybe something like this

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> You couldn't have made this stuff up. If anyone said before the invasion started, that the Russian Air Force would rely on basic low grade civilian GPS, I would have wanted to know what they were smoking.
> The SU34 cockpit looks quite modern.


As far as I know the su-34 picture is from the Syrian war, and maybe the su-25 too. But somebody else reported that civilian GPS have been found on the wreckage of some Russian planes in Ukraine too.


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## Glider (May 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So what does Russia have in mind in the way of "future reprisals" for Poland, a "special operation" to root out Nazis there, too?
> 
> I'm pretty sure Poland isn't going to lose any sleep over Russia's threats.


I think the key word is highlighted _have in mind in the way of "*future* reprisals" for Polan_d, 

There will have to be an order of priority, as Putin now has *Future* reprisals for

Poland, 
Finland and Sweden (almost certainly)
Australia
Japan (for increasing its Navy and operating around some disputed islands)
UK 
Rest of Europe

I don't think he has actually threatened the USA, but he has enough to be going on with and I don't think the others are quaking in their boots

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## GrauGeist (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Out of curiosity, would an amphibious assault ship be banned from the Black Sea by Turkey? A few nations classify ships that look like aircraft carriers as cruisers or destroyers of some sort even though V/STOL combat aircraft operate from them. I'm sure that has something to do with the future submarine Kusnetsov classification by Russia.


Any military ship belonging to belligerent nations that are not registered to the Black Sea prior to the start of hostilities, are not allowed passage under Artical 19, however, Turkey currently will not allow any warships to transit the straights.

This might give a better idea of what's going on:








Turkey Must Close the Turkish Straits Only to Russian and Ukrainian Warships


Turkey’s current chosen path of attempting to close the straits to all warships oversteps the Montreux Convention and risks replacing a long-standing set of rules vital to Turkish security with arbitrary restrictions.




www.lawfareblog.com

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Out of curiosity, would an amphibious assault ship be banned from the Black Sea by Turkey? A few nations classify ships that look like aircraft carriers as cruisers or destroyers of some sort even though V/STOL combat aircraft operate from them. I'm sure that has something to do with the future submarine Kusnetsov classification by Russia.



The Montreux Convention prevents any combat vessel belonging to a belligerent at war from entering the Black Sea unless the vessel's home port is there. So any Russian Naval vessel should be prevented from entering.

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Out of curiosity, would an amphibious assault ship be banned from the Black Sea by Turkey? A few nations classify ships that look like aircraft carriers as cruisers or destroyers of some sort even though V/STOL combat aircraft operate from them. I'm sure that has something to do with the future submarine Kusnetsov classification by Russia.


According to the Montreux Convention, unless NATO being at war the *total *tonnage of warships by non-belligerent parties to enter the Black-Sea can't exceed 15,000 tonnes.
So theoretically the USA could send and "lend" an amphibious war ship to Ukraine - but I don't think it would be long afloat if used by the Ukrainians.


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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Loving the last quote from the Finnish President:

_Finnish President Sauli Niinisto was asked about whether his country joining Nato would provoke Russia.

He reminded the press conference that this was "not the first time we are discussing Nato".

"In the end of last year they [Russia] stated that Finland and Sweden can't join Nato – they demanded that Nato doesn't take new members," he says.

The Finish president said this changed the picture as Russia was stating that Finland and Sweden did not have their "own will", and the Russian invasion on 24 February also changes the picture.

"They are ready to attack their neighbouring country, so... my response would be that 'you caused this – look at the mirror'," he says._


For those not tracking, UK PM Boris Johnson is visiting Sweden and Finland today to put in place agreements whereby the UK agrees to to cooperate militarily with either nation if they're attacked, including providing military forces. These agreements are being put in place to cover the period of transition if either Sweden or Finland decide to join NATO. Essentially, it means the UK is providing security guarantees to both nations until they come under the NATO umbrella.

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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

Macandy said:


> There super dupers strike aircraft is the SU-34
> 
> Two shot wrecks examined had domestic satnavs fixed to the cockpit surround.
> The crappy Russian nav system doesn't work or is so unreliable it cant find Ukraine
> ...


Everyone can buy their own Su-34 today. A piece of, I mean.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> I think the key word is highlighted _have in mind in the way of "*future* reprisals" for Polan_d,
> 
> There will have to be an order of priority, as Putin now has *Future* reprisals for
> 
> ...


May we add:
Israel (for having Putin apologize)
Turkey (for selling TB2 to Ukraine)
Canada (for being on the other side of the Arctic)
All 3 Baltic States (for being next to Russia)
And I guess anyone in this list (including US) Unfriendly Countries List - Wikipedia

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Montreux Convention prevents any combat vessel belonging to a belligerent at war from entering the Black Sea unless the vessel's home port is there. So any Russian Naval vessel should be prevented from entering.


So....... if we want to get the UNF a submarine or three, this is the only way....
















I jest of course, but more seriously Narco-type midget subs could be shipped overland. It's too bad the Ukrainians didn't keep up maintenance on their single Foxtrot class, and asked to buy Romania's Kilo while they're at it. It all comes down to money of course. The last picture above is of an Upholder/Victoria class SSK, I bet the Ukrainians could put those four 1980s boats to better use than the RCN.

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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Loving the last quote from the Finnish President:
> 
> _Finnish President Sauli Niinisto was asked about whether his country joining Nato would provoke Russia.
> 
> ...


I love that song.

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## GTX (May 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> effectiveness


That video doesn't show that.


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## GTX (May 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i think scoring direct hit of the BMP running at full speed shown on movie it is something requiring lot more than just lucky day, especially that it wasn't just sole example but it was at least 4 vehicles hit with similar precision


There is no context to the video posted.


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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

The first public announcement of the losses of the National Guard of Ukraine since Feb 24, 2022.
Killed 501, wounded 1697.









National Guard announces its losses caused by the war


ILLUSTRATIVE PHOTO ARMYINFORM.COM.UA




www.pravda.com.ua

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> According to the Montreux Convention, unless NATO being at war the *total *tonnage of warships by non-belligerent parties to enter the Black-Sea can't exceed 15,000 tonnes.
> So theoretically the USA could send and "lend" an amphibious war ship to Ukraine - but I don't think it would be long afloat if used by the Ukrainians.


It might if the U.S. and the U.K. loaned a couple of ASW and anti-aircraft frigates. 
I think we might have a bunch available.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

What I really wanted to know was, does an amphibious assault ship circumvent the no aircraft carrier rule?


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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What I really wanted to know was, does an amphibious assault ship circumvent the no aircraft carrier rule?


Probably some lawyers might get rich in that process, since when the Montreux Convention was signed, helicopters didn't exist and the text only mentions aircraft's.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So....... if we want to get the UNF a submarine or three, this is the only way....
> 
> View attachment 667884
> 
> ...


I don’t think there’s a problem. The first 3 pictures are obviously of buses. No problem.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What I really wanted to know was, does an amphibious assault ship circumvent the no aircraft carrier rule?


The no aircraft carrier rule is not part of the formal terms.









Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





But the 15,000-ton limit that IS in the formal terms would restrict us to something the size of HTMS Chakri Naruebet

Anyways.... the UNF doesn't need an aircraft carrier. They need midget submarines that can approach Sevastopol and sink Russian warships whilst in port.

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## Snautzer01 (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Loving the last quote from the Finnish President:
> 
> _Finnish President Sauli Niinisto was asked about whether his country joining Nato would provoke Russia.
> 
> ...


Heard that before, what Boris stated.


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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Heard that before, what Boris stated.


Yeppers... the Continentals know not to rely of the vagaries of British politics for their protection.









Western betrayal - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Putin's plan relies on this too, knowing that he can wait out the British and Americans until their taxpayers and politicians tire or become distracted.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

I saw the Chakri Naruebet up close! “Farongs” weren’t allowed to board it. Telling them I had been promoted to “Saparot“ didn’t help. The OHP class frigate was far more welcoming and homey anyway. 
I believe ol’ 911 doesn’t really work.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Anyways.... the UNF doesn't need an aircraft carrier. They need midget submarines that can approach Sevastopol and sink Russian warships whilst in port.



This would be a much better fit for Ukraine's asymmetric strategy.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This would be a much better fit for Ukraine's asymmetric strategy.


Agreed. Interestingly, outside of Narcos I can't see any midget subs currently in service that the UNF could borrow.

This one could do the job, but not yet/ever in production.












DRASS DG160 – DRASS GROUP







www.drass.tech













Midget submarines made in Italy, tailored to the Gulf needs - EDR Magazine


By Paolo Valpolini Following 15 years of investments in technology Drass, an Italian SMI based in Livorno, started working on



www.edrmagazine.eu

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

BTW I never meant to say that Ukraine needs an amphib. I wanted the CV/LHA thing cleared up. I think Jagdflieger is right. No helos back then, kill everyone and let the lawyers sort it out.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. Interestingly, outside of Narcos I can't see any midget subs currently in service that the UNF could borrow.



Yeah, therein lies the rub.


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## Snautzer01 (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yeppers... the Continentals know not to rely of the vagaries of British politics for their protection.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Continantals have more the enough of holy signed papers, contracts, cross my heart hope to die pledges, to wallpaper a medium sized castle, that in the end was not worth the paper it was written on. And that was only the 15th century. So no. Unless committed with boots and iron right there, it is just tv talk. Boris is very much a politician, funny at times but not to be trusted with the morning tea. Or a party in corona time.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Doesn’t Germany export U-buses?

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## Snautzer01 (May 11, 2022)

U-boatsus you mean?

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Doesn’t Germany export U-buses?


Take your pick of available mini subs



H I Sutton - Covert Shores

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> U-boatsus you mean?


Whatever you want to call them as long as Turkey doesn’t notice.

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## Snautzer01 (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Whatever you want to call them as long as Turkey doesn’t notice.


Ah yes the u-kebap boat. Yes they wont notice it. Will try to sprinkle it with a bit of salt and vinegar but only when it is on a plate.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Does trucking submarines overland violate the Montreaux Convention?


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## J_P_C (May 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> As far as I know the su-34 picture is from the Syrian war, and maybe the su-25 too. But somebody else reported that civilian GPS have been found on the wreckage of some Russian planes in Ukraine too.


Mystery behind of this is GLONASS system coverage - probably Syria is black hole for this system this is why they have used curtesy of Uncle Sam and full availability of the GPS. Anyway used receivers are not working too well on fast jets....

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Mystery behind of this is GLONASS system coverage - probably Syria is black hole for this system this is why they have used curtesy of Uncle Sam and full availability of the GPS. Anyway used receivers are not working too well on fast jets....


I can just hear Siri saying “resetting, resetting….”

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yeppers... the Continentals know not to rely of the vagaries of British politics for their protection.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Snautzer01 said:


> Continantals have more the enough of holy signed papers, contracts, cross my heart hope to die pledges, to wallpaper a medium sized castle, that in the end was not worth the paper it was written on. And that was only the 15th century. So no. Unless committed with boots and iron right there, it is just tv talk. Boris is very much a politician, funny at times but not to be trusted with the morning tea. Or a party in corona time.



A couple of observations:

1. Continentals should look after their own bluddy protection and not rely on the UK, US or anyone else. 

2. These agreements are not the UK guaranteeing Swedish or Finnish security. They are mutually-supportive agreements whereby all parties agree to support each other if ANY of the signatories is attacked. 

3. It seems pretty clear that Putin doesn't like the idea of Sweden and Finland joining NATO...which opens up the possibility that he might do something stupid before either nation joins NATO. Ergo, SOMEBODY needs to do SOMETHING to help dissuade him from that course of action.

4. Entirely agree what we saw today was a bit of political theatre but...

5. What, exactly, have any other nations--including the US, Canada and other European Allies--done to help enhance Finnish and Swedish security in the run up to them potentially joining NATO? AFAIK, nothing.


So...feel free to mock the Brits and please do keep bringing up their many mistakes over the centuries. However, right now they're out there, punching above their weight, in an attempt to contain further Russian aggression and build better, stronger defensive alliances. Maybe we should be applauding instead of criticizing.

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## J_P_C (May 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> That video doesn't show that.


really? at least 5 vehicles destroyed with single artillery action including hit of the BMP running at full speed around 2.55 timestamp - but of course you may be correct - it is fake for sure or could be you are going personally do it better next time.... just to prove your stance


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## GTX (May 11, 2022)

My point, as has been made out before but frustratingly seems to be forgotten all too often, is that videos posted without full context can be easily be misleading. There is a lot of propaganda going on here - and this video definitely falls into that class. To post such a video along with the comment "probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action" and without any justification other than the video itself is arguably hyperbolic at best.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> My point, as has been made out before but frustratingly seems to be forgotten all too often, is that videos posted without full context can be easily be misleading. There is a lot of propaganda going on here - and this video definitely falls into that class. To post such a video along with the comment "probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action" and without any justification other than the video itself is arguably hyperbolic at best.



Skepticism for claims from both sides is warranted, as both sides have a vested interest in affecting wider public opinion. This is why I look to (relatively) unbiased courses which cite their own sources as being confirmed.

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## vikingBerserker (May 11, 2022)

A helicopter is an aircraft so it would be covered as well.

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## SaparotRob (May 11, 2022)

Darn lawyers.


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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> A helicopter is an aircraft so it would be covered as well.


Rotary aircraft have been around since the 1920s. Here's a C.30 autogyro performing trials on board the Spanish navy seaplane tender Dédalo in 1934, three years before the Montreux Convention was signed.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Take your pick of available mini subs
> 
> 
> 
> H I Sutton - Covert Shores


How? I don't think any of those are in service.


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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Rotary aircraft have been around since the 1920s. Here's a C.30 autogyro performing trials on board the Spanish navy seaplane tender Dédalo in 1934, three years before the Montreux Convention was signed.
> 
> View attachment 667895


Great picture thanks. But an aircraft is defined as a flying object with an engine (or engines) with wings. So a helicopter (isn't a gyro either) and isn't an aircraft by definition.
Let the lawyers make (earn) their money 

As for the sub, the Chinese have them in service, Even Iran (don't laugh) and the Turks?


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## GTX (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Great picture thanks. But an aircraft is defined as a flying object with an engine (or engines) with wings. So a helicopter (isn't a gyro either) and isn't an aircraft by definition.
> Let the lawyers make (earn) their money


Errr...rotary wing

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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What I really wanted to know was, does an amphibious assault ship circumvent the no aircraft carrier rule?


Russian Navy wanted to deploy at least one Mistral-class ship in the Black Sea before the deal was cancelled by French government.
Soviet ships such as Moskva (the older one) and aircraft carriers officially called "aircraft cruisers" crossed the Turkish Straits on regular basis.

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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

M777A2 at work.

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## Dimlee (May 11, 2022)

Probably, the first picture of Bofors in the field.

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Great picture thanks. But an aircraft is defined as a flying object with an engine (or engines) with wings. So a helicopter (isn't a gyro either) and isn't an aircraft by definition.
> Let the lawyers make (earn) their money
> 
> As for the sub, the Chinese have them in service, Even Iran (don't laugh) and the Turks?



Disagree. An aeroplane/airplane has wings. A glider is still an aeroplane/airplane. An aircraft is any man-made object that can fly, including powered aeroplanes, gliders, balloons, autogyros and helicopters.

Agree about the lawyers, though.

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## GTX (May 11, 2022)

Two speeches, one war: What we learnt from Putin and Zelenskyy's rival Victory Day speeches


Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy both addressed their nations on Victory Day this week. But while Putin's message was widely reported it had far less impact and the reason is simple: Russia's peril is feigned while Ukraine's is not, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A couple of observations:
> 
> 1. Continentals should look after their own bluddy protection and not rely on the UK, US or anyone else.
> 
> ...


Regarding:

Point 1. Absolutly. Hope this war could trigger that, but doubt EU could sustain interest much longer.

Point 2. If Uncle Vlad attack Finland and/or Sweden and UK stand by the agreement and get attack itself, could it trigger NATO article 5?

Point 3. Really could Uncle Vlad be so blind to try such a move? I can't see any scenario in which RF could defeat Finland or Sweden or even make any progress.

BTW, taking some of that freedom that you offer, I attach this photo. In the upper pic, how the americans see the british. In the lower one, how the europeans see the british.






Beside that,  to the agreement

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## vikingBerserker (May 11, 2022)

As defined by Dictionary.com:

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## MiTasol (May 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians need to sort out how to jam these UAF drones.



And the Ukrainians need to learn how to make their drones home in on the jamming



Admiral Beez said:


> And where are the Russian's attack helicopters



Waiting for their Garmin GPS's?

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## MiTasol (May 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> As defined by Dictionary.com:
> 
> View attachment 667900


Official Industry definitions

Aircraft means any machine that can derive support in the atmosphere from the reactions of the air otherwise than by the reactions of the air against the surface of the earth: (so that includes gliders and balloons of all sorts and excludes hovercraft and surface skimmers)

Aeroplane/Airplane means a power-driven heavier-than-air aircraft deriving its lift in flight chiefly from aerodynamic reactions on surfaces which remain fixed under given conditions of flight:

Unofficially helicopters do not fly - they beat the air into subission

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## Snautzer01 (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So...feel free to mock the Brits and please do keep bringing up their many mistakes over the centuries. However, right now they're out there, punching above their weight, in an attempt to contain further Russian aggression and build better, stronger defensive alliances. Maybe we should be applauding instead of criticizing.



History is there to view. And learn. There is a clear line to see up to current events. Even in Britain itself. For example ask a lot of the Scots or any other minority ruled by it. You will be surprised how the sentiment goes.



buffnut453 said:


> 1. Continentals should look after their own bluddy protection and not rely on the UK, US or anyone else.


Agree. To long of free loading on the big guy.. Should build a military not dependent on the US. Not on weapons or whatever. Quite right. Uk is not a protector. Perhaps not even capable protecting its own. Better have a argument on anywhere but ole Blighty.



buffnut453 said:


> 2. These agreements are not the UK guaranteeing Swedish or Finnish security. They are mutually-supportive agreements whereby all parties agree to support each other if ANY of the signatories is attacked.


My point. It meaningless. Level of support It fits the thought Britain is still a world player like Boris would like to see it. Brexit is not a big success.



buffnut453 said:


> It seems pretty clear that Putin doesn't like the idea of Sweden and Finland joining NATO...which opens up the possibility that he might do something stupid before either nation joins NATO. Ergo, SOMEBODY needs to do SOMETHING to help dissuade him from that course of action.



Its pretty clear that Russia is not the soviet union although Putin would still like to think that. IMO he overplayed his hand and showed how not to attack a country with some means to defend itself, let alone take on NATO. Joining od Sweden and others are i think cards on the table to be negotiated if and when the aggression stops more or less. 
Yes the a bombs rockets etc. What i find dangerous is that perhaps that arsenal is viewed now like the rest of russias weapons, do able



buffnut453 said:


> What, exactly, have any other nations--including the US, Canada and other European Allies--done to help enhance Finnish and Swedish security in the run up to them potentially joining NATO? AFAIK, nothing.



They did not want it. Untill just now. Guess why.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Two speeches, one war: What we learnt from Putin and Zelenskyy's rival Victory Day speeches
> 
> 
> Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy both addressed their nations on Victory Day this week. But while Putin's message was widely reported it had far less impact and the reason is simple: Russia's peril is feigned while Ukraine's is not, writes Mick Ryan.
> ...



_Putin's vivid descriptions of an existential threat were more imaginary. He claimed Russia was under threat from a broad coalition of predators which include neo-Nazis, Banderites, international terrorist gangs, NATO, and the biggest of all: the United States.




_

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> History is there to view. And learn. There is a clear line to see up to current events. Even in Britain itself. For example ask a lot of the Scots or any other minority ruled by it. You will be surprised how the sentiment goes.



Actually, I wouldn't be surprised at all. What bugs me is that people don't know their own history. The first king of the united Britain was James I who, ironically, was James VI of Scotland. And yet the British monarchy is somehow only "English". Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also voted on devolution and got what they asked for. Can we please stop the crap about "Scotland being ruled by Britain"?




Snautzer01 said:


> Agree. To long of free loading on the big guy.. Should build a military not dependent on the US. Not on weapons or whatever. Quite right. Uk is not a protector. Perhaps not even capable protecting its own. Better have a argument on anywhere but ole Blighty.



Agree Britain would struggle to defend its own. Britain went through its own version of the "peace dividend" that has seen its front-line forces slashed. This is a political statement with the intent of influencing Putin not to do anything stupid...and to influence other Western Allies to act in a like fashion to help with that deterrent effect. 




Snautzer01 said:


> My point. It meaningless. Level of support It fits the thought Britain is still a world player like Boris would like to see it. Brexit is not a big success.



It may be meaningless in practical terms but this is all about political messaging...and the target is Putin. He needs to understand that the Western Allies are not going to allow a repeat of his shenanigans in Ukraine. People keep saying that Putin only responds to force. Well, the way you prepare to deploy force is by making agreements with Allies so your military can operate in their backyard. That's what NATO's been doing since its formation. Agreements of the sort that Johnson just enacted with Sweden and Finland are key to making Putin think again before he acts. However, Britain can't do it alone...other Western Allies need to stand up to the plate. 




Snautzer01 said:


> Its pretty clear that Russia is not the soviet union although Putin would still like to think that. IMO he overplayed his hand and showed how not to attack a country with some means to defend itself, let alone take on NATO. Joining od Sweden and others are i think cards on the table to be negotiated if and when the aggression stops more or less.
> Yes the a bombs rockets etc. What i find dangerous is that perhaps that arsenal is viewed now like the rest of russias weapons, do able



No disagreement here.




Snautzer01 said:


> They did not want it. Untill just now. Guess why.



Because Putin fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape. Such a seismic shift requires a response by all nations who oppose Putin's expansionist activities. Finland and Sweden were happy until now...but now they're not so, rightly, they're exploring options that better guarantee their security. They didn't want it in January but they do now. So what?


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## GrauGeist (May 11, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Probably some lawyers might get rich in that process, since when the Montreux Convention was signed, helicopters didn't exist and the text only mentions aircraft's.


There most certainly were rotary wing aircraft in 1936: helicopters and auto-gyros.
One notable helicopter, the Focke-Achgelis Fa61, first flew the year the Montreaux Convention was ratified.


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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Aircraft means any machine that can derive support in the atmosphere from the reactions of the air......

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## buffnut453 (May 11, 2022)

In an attempt to get back on track...Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian pontoon bridges (again) in Luhanksk:







_Ukraine's military says it has again destroyed pontoon bridges that Russian troops were using to cross a river in the eastern Luhansk region, where heavy fighting has been raging for days.

The Ukrainian defence ministry published photos of what it said were destroyed Russian tanks and other armour in the village of Bilohorivka, near the strategic Ukrainian-held city of Lysychansk.

Luhansk regional head Serhiy Haidai described Bilohorivka as a "fortress" that - like the city of Mariupol - was "holding back a great number" of Russian troops._






_Russian pontoon bridges were smashed by Ukrainian artillery, Kyiv says. Russia's military has not commented on the Ukrainian claim, which has not been independently verified._

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## wlewisiii (May 11, 2022)

ETA: Whoops, beat me to it.

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## GrauGeist (May 11, 2022)

I'm sure the Russian version of the bridge and tugboat will be that there was just a small fire and the weather was bad.

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## Admiral Beez (May 11, 2022)

With Ukraine saving Kharkiv and pushing the Russians back to within kms of the Ukraine border it must have dawned on both sides that the UAF may have the growing strength and momentum to retake all of Ukraine, including the Donbas. Russia needs to up its game. My guess, a new offensive on Kiyv by the Belorussians. I’d say Crimea is forever lost though.









Battle of Kharkiv (2022) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## wlewisiii (May 11, 2022)

I'll only agree on Crimea due to geography. But they won't be able to come up from there easily either, especially as bad as the Russian army has proven to be. 

The Ukrainians should try to keep the eastern bridge bombed as well to keep the pressure up on Crimea.

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Disagree. An aeroplane/airplane has wings. A glider is still an aeroplane/airplane. An aircraft is any man-made object that can fly, including powered aeroplanes, gliders, balloons, autogyros and helicopters.
> 
> Agree about the lawyers, though.


Maybe in the "simplified" Anglo-saxon vocabulary. 
Thank God the Montreaux Convention is written in a 'civilized" and articulated language - French (almost as developed as German)
So it states not "aircraft" but *avion* or *aeroplane* and according to "even" British language standards an aeroplane is: a vehicle designed for air travel that has wings and one or more engines:








aeroplane


1. a vehicle designed for air travel that has wings and one or more engines…




dictionary.cambridge.org




hmm.. maybe I should have become a lawyer?

Just as a ship is a ship, and a submarine is a submarine and not a ship - neither is a rowing boat a ship nor is a hovercraft a ship , but a craft or a boat. 
BTW, don't the UK or the USMC have these hovercraft - Landing Craft Air Cushion (LCAC)? could be fitted and stuffed with AA and SAM weaponry too aside from transport tasks.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> You couldn't have made this stuff up. If anyone said before the invasion started, that the Russian Air Force would rely on basic low grade civilian GPS, I would have wanted to know what they were smoking.
> The SU34 cockpit looks quite modern.



The funny thing is I think the GPS and navigation systems in the lil GA planes I fly are more advanced. Hell I think the ForeFlight program on my iPad is…lol

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Actually, I wouldn't be surprised at all. What bugs me is that people don't know their own history. The first king of the united Britain was James I who, ironically, was James VI of Scotland. And yet the British monarchy is somehow only "English". Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also voted on devolution and got what they asked for. Can we please stop the crap about "Scotland being ruled by Britain"?


Sorry I just had to:
The United Kingdom is a sovereign state made up of four countries: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This political entity formed slowly over time. In the 16th century, Wales, which had already been conquered by England, was fully incorporated into the Kingdom of England. In *1707*, a treaty between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland was signed, forming the Kingdom of Great Britain (because now the whole island was one political entity). Then, in 1801, after a period of subjugation by England, the Kingdom of Ireland was formally incorporated to form the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Finally, in 1922, most of Ireland gained independence from the United Kingdom, splitting the island into two: Ireland and Northern Ireland, the latter of which stayed part of the United Kingdom.

James I, 1566-1625, born Edinburgh Castle, Scotland—,* King of Scotland* (as James VI) from 1567 to 1625 and first *Stuart king of England* from 1603 to 1625, who *styled* himself "king of Great Britain." whereas Great Britain in that context is a geographical term since the UK aka Great Britain as a political term was only introduced in 1707.

And now William Wallace and Robert the Bruce are going to hunt you down at night

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 11, 2022)

1. Last time I checked when I was crewing helicopters we called them *AIR*craft.

2. Jesus, are we actually discussing this?

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## Jagdflieger (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In an attempt to get back on track...Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian pontoon bridges (again) in Luhanksk:
> 
> View attachment 667907
> 
> ...


I viewed a Russian training maneuver setting up a pontoon bridge not long ago - they took almost 14 hours to do the job - for which in a NATO maneuver it would take less then 2 hours.!!! okay just a maneuver but still....


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## XBe02Drvr (May 11, 2022)

Even the overly restrictive Cambridge definition of "aeroplane" fails to specify that the "wings" have to be fixed and stationary, hence rotary wings meet the definition.
We can argue til the cows come home what constitutes an "aircraft", but why bother? And any submarine larger than a midget is a ship, regardless of how much you'd like to think otherwise. The contention that the term "ship" includes the understood adjective "surface" is faulty, regardless of some people's cultural assumptions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 11, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Even the overly restrictive Cambridge definition of "aeroplane" fails to specify that the "wings" have to be fixed and stationary, hence rotary wings meet the definition.
> We can argue til the cows come home what constitutes an "aircraft", but why bother? And any submarine larger than a midget is a ship, regardless of how much you'd like to think otherwise. The contention that the term "ship" includes the understood adjective "surface" is faulty, regardless of some people's cultural assumptions.



Ding, ding, ding…


A rotary-wing is a wing.

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## J_P_C (May 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Disagree. An aeroplane/airplane has wings. A glider is still an aeroplane/airplane. An aircraft is any man-made object that can fly, including powered aeroplanes, gliders, balloons, autogyros and helicopters.
> 
> Agree about the lawyers, though.


glider is aerodyne but not aircraft per definition....

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## at6 (May 12, 2022)

Now the Russians are selling purloined Ukrainian grain to Syria and other "friendly" countries. The Ukrainians should have poisoned it just to kill the thieves off like Tribbles.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

_KYIV/BRUSSELS, May 12 (Reuters) - Finland is expected to announce on Thursday its intention to join NATO with Sweden likely to follow soon after, diplomats and officials said, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshapes European security and the Atlantic military alliance.

NATO allies expect Finland and Sweden to be granted membership quickly, five diplomats and officials told Reuters, paving the way for increased troop presence in the Nordic region during the one-year ratification period. read more

In the wider Nordic region, Norway, Denmark and the three Baltic states are already NATO members, and the addition of Finland and Sweden would likely anger Moscow, which says NATO enlargement is a direct threat to its own security.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited the issue as a reason for his actions in Ukraine, which has also expressed a desire to eventually join the alliance.

Moscow has also repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden against joining the alliance, threatening "serious military and political consequences".

Asked on Wednesday if Finland would provoke Russia by joining NATO, President Sauli Niinisto said Putin would be to blame. "My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror," Niinisto said._









Moscow warns Finland over NATO bid as Ukraine says Russian ship damaged


Moscow warned Finland on Thursday it would face consequences as it seeks to apply for NATO membership "without delay" and Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship in the Black Sea, where there has been renewed fighting in recent days.




www.reuters.com





It appears that Mr Putin has run up against the Law of Unintended Consequences. Assuming NATO approval, Russia will have one more frontier with NATO than it had before Putin invaded Ukraine to push NATO back.

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## WARSPITER (May 12, 2022)

Is there any news on a possible reunification ? of Moldova and Romania ?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I sheer any news on a possible reunification ? of Moldova and Romania ?



Hey 'Spiter, this looks like a phone thing, but your question isn't clear.


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## WARSPITER (May 12, 2022)

Sorry - fixed.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Now, it explains those washing machines in military trucks and in trenches.

_"U.S.-led sanctions are forcing Russia to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Wednesday"_


https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-sanctions-effect-military/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram&fbclid=IwAR1QKG707LY78zNc4G-fjJXDHu5USfzNEOTQBkbTDAadVbRBZu3Q4vIxtbk


Abandoned Russian positions, watch until the end:

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> glider is aerodyne but not aircraft per definition....


A glider doesn't meet the Cambridge definition of "aeroplane" for lack of an engine, but that doesn't preclude it as an "aircraft". The terms "aeroplane" (airplane) and "aircraft" are not directly interchangeable. 
(Don't we sound like a bunch of pragmatical sea-lawyers here?)

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## WARSPITER (May 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Now, it explains those washing machines in military trucks and in trenches.
> 
> _"U.S.-led sanctions are forcing Russia to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Wednesday"_
> 
> ...



That explains the lack of creative tactics.

They are stuck on rinse and repeat.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In an attempt to get back on track...Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian pontoon bridges (again) in Luhanksk:
> 
> View attachment 667907
> 
> ...



Thread form a Ukarnian UA Engineer who contributed to the destruction of the bridge. Take with a grain of salt, but it makes sense to me.
Interesting sentence "_Then, Aviation started heavy bombing of the area and it destroyed all the remains of Russians there, and other bridge they tried to make._" If true, UAF is still active and having an impact on the war, despite Russian claims of having destroyed more than 300% of UAF airplanes.

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## wlewisiii (May 12, 2022)

Is this 13 or 14 now?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> .
> Interesting sentence "_Then, Aviation started heavy bombing of the area and it destroyed all the remains of Russians there, and other bridge they tried to make._" If true, UAF is still active and having an impact on the war, despite Russian claims of having destroyed more than 300% of UAF airplanes.


Could be very true. A couple of days ago Ukrainian Su-27 bombed Snake Island at very low level.


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## Snautzer01 (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian claims of having destroyed more than 300% of UAF airplanes



*300%* wauw. Really reliable number. You see no fake news from Russia.

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## Denniss (May 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Is this 13 or 14 now?


at least this is a -1 of russian leadership

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> *300%* wauw. Really reliable number. You see no fake news from Russia.


Just asking, is there a source (Russian) were they claim 300%?


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## Snautzer01 (May 12, 2022)

If there was would you put value to it? I am noticing the 300% bit. What did they do? Resurect and kill it again? Twice?

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV/BRUSSELS, May 12 (Reuters) - Finland is expected to announce on Thursday its intention to join NATO with Sweden likely to follow soon after, diplomats and officials said, _


Do the citizens of the existing NATO countries have a say? As a Canadian and Brit I fully support welcoming both Finland and Sweden into NATO. But we should consider that the wider NATO spreads the more likely the West’s sons and daughters will be sent into the grinder. I‘m alright with that, but are America’s parents willing to sacrifice their sons for the seemingly distant places like Finland, or even existing members like Bulgaria? This POTUS? No question, but the last POTUS and maybe the next POTUSes (is that POTI?) I’m not so sure. While my southern neighbour doesn’t shirk from bombing Muslim despots and intervening where they perceive interest, they also have a strong isolationist streak.

It’s now history rather than contemporary politics so I think it’s safe (from Moderator sanction) to wonder here how POTUS45 would have reacted to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and how he would have dealt with Europe, NATO and its expansion.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 1. Last time I checked when I was crewing helicopters we called them *AIR*craft.
> 
> 2. Jesus, are we actually discussing this?


You mean when crewing your aircraft and sighting the same one you called it a helicopter? otherwise I need to seriously doubt the US Air-defense capabilities.

leader red to ground - enemy aircraft's heading NNW
Ground to leader red - what aircraft's?
leader red to ground - aircraft's with rotor-blades

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> .. one you called it a helicopter?


I think if we return to the genesis of this distraction we’d see we’re being punked.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You mean when crewing your aircraft and sighting the same one you called it a helicopter? otherwise I need to seriously doubt the US Air-defense capabilities.
> 
> leader red to ground - enemy aircraft's heading NNW
> Ground to leader red - what aircraft's?
> leader red to ground - aircraft's with rotor-blades



No, I said we called our helicopters AIRCRAFT…


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## FLYBOYJ (May 12, 2022)

I'll throw more fuel in the fire - 

"aircrafts" or "aircraft's" = it's *"AIRCRAFT"

The word is both singular and plural! *

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## Jabberwocky (May 12, 2022)

Finland announced a couple of hours ago that it will formally submit an application to join NATO "without delay". 

Some Finnish parliamentarians are saying there is a strong majority of lawmakers who support the decision - reportedly somewhere between 60% and 70%. 

Recent surveys of Finnish population show support for NATO membership running at roughly 60-75% for, 10-20% against, with about 15-30% undecided or 'don't know'. Finnish popular support for NATO membership was roughly 25% in 2017 and 55% shortly before the invasion of Ukraine.

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## Greg Boeser (May 12, 2022)

Fear is a great motivator.

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Recent surveys of Finnish population show support for NATO membership running at roughly 60-75% for, 10-20% against...


I imagine the latter group includes Russians in Finland - Wikipedia.

Any country with a sizable Russian population needs to be wary. If I was Ukraine, once I take the Donbas I would be marching every Russian across the border. Just the same as the Russians did to the Germans in East Prussia when they renamed the place the Kaliningrad Oblast.


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## vikingBerserker (May 12, 2022)

"My targeting system is not worth crap but I have crushed ice!"

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Do the citizens of the existing NATO countries have a say?



Only indirectly through the ballot-box, to my knowledge.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I'll throw more fuel in the fire -
> 
> "aircrafts" or "aircraft's" = it's *"AIRCRAFT"
> 
> The word is both singular and plural! *



Thank you, that crap sprained my English bone.

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## SaparotRob (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine the latter group includes Russians in Finland - Wikipedia.
> 
> Any country with a sizable Russian population needs to be wary. If I was Ukraine, once I take the Donbas I would be marching every Russian across the border. Just the same as the Russians did to the Germans in East Prussia when they renamed the place the Kaliningrad Oblast.


I agree. We’re going to have to do a first strike on Coney Island (aka “Little Odesa “).

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Even the overly restrictive Cambridge definition of "aeroplane" fails to specify that the "wings" have to be fixed and stationary, hence rotary wings meet the definition.
> We can argue til the cows come home what constitutes an "aircraft", but why bother? And any submarine larger than a midget is a ship, regardless of how much you'd like to think otherwise. The contention that the term "ship" includes the understood adjective "surface" is faulty, regardless of some people's cultural assumptions.


We "bother" about this since an amphibious assault ship carrying attack and ASW helicopters - might according to some weasel like lawyers not constitute a carrier carrying aeroplanes
as stated in the Montreaux Convention.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Did I miss something on this thread, or has the western media confirmed that Colonel Ihor Bedzai, Deputy Commander of the Navy for Aviation, died in the Ukrainian sky. He is better known as the former commander of the 10th Naval Aviation Brigade from Novofedorivka, near Saky, Crimea. Shot down in his aircraft Mi-14 by a Russian missile.


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## buffnut453 (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> We "bother" about this since an amphibious assault ship carrying attack and ASW helicopters - might according to some weasel like lawyers not constitute a carrier carrying aeroplanes
> as stated in the Montreaux Convention.



We keep going round and round on this...helicopters are aircraft but they are not aeroplanes. If the amphibious vessel belongs to a belligerent then it won't be allowed into the Black Sea. If it's a non-belligerent then it probably could be allowed through but, as we've noted, that's a lawyer-ese issue. We can bash our heads against that wall for days but lawyers ALWAYS interpret things differently. 

Would a helicopter-carrying amphib assault ship be allowed into the Black Sea? The answer is probably maybe.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

re Russian claims









Russian forces destroy 793 drones, 2,979 armored vehicles in Ukraine operation - top brass


Russia’s missile troops, artillery eliminate up to 380 Ukrainian nationalists




tass.com





"Overall, the following targets have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation: 163 aircraft, 124 helicopters, 793 unmanned aerial vehicles, 300 surface-to-air missile systems, 2,979 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 351 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,440 field artillery guns and mortars and 2,789 special military motor vehicles,"

But I've seen other (Russian/Pro-Russian) sources earlier in the war claiming more planes. Maybe RT or sputnik claim more, but I can't access them.

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> ...2,979 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 351 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,440 field artillery guns and mortars and 2,789 special military motor vehicles,"


Do the Ukrainians have 3,000 AFVs and 1,500 artillery guns to lose?

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Do the Ukrainians have 3,000 AFVs and 1,500 artillery guns to lose?


Theoretically yes, and the claim 1500 artillery guns includes mortars

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Theoretically yes, and the claim 1500 artillery guns includes mortars


And probably the 793 unmanned aerial vehicles includes antitank missiles. As we all know , Russian tanks are doing a great work destroying Ukrainian antitank missiles.

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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2022)

Regarding the Turkish Straights:
NO military ship or ship carrying military hardware is currently allowed passage, regardless of nation or allegiance.

Doesn't matter if it's a landing craft with "aircrafts", a freighter with armored cars or anything in between.

I posted a clear (and somewhat lengthy but concise) artical upthread that outlines Turkey's current position and why they're doing it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

_
HELSINKI/KHARKIV, Ukraine, May 12 (Reuters) - Finland said on Thursday it would apply to join NATO "without delay", with Sweden expected to follow, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine looked set to bring about the very expansion of the Western military alliance that Vladimir Putin aimed to prevent.

The decision by the two Nordic countries to abandon the neutrality they maintained throughout the Cold War would be one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades. Moscow called Finland's announcement a direct threat to Russia, and threatened retaliation, including unspecified "military-technical" measures._









Moscow warns Finland over NATO bid as Ukraine says Russian ship damaged


Moscow warned Finland on Thursday it would face consequences as it seeks to apply for NATO membership "without delay" and Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship in the Black Sea, where there has been renewed fighting in recent days.




www.reuters.com





I'll go back to quoting Soundgarden on this:

_
Whatsoever I've feared has come to life
And whatsoever I've fought off became my life
Just when everyday seemed to greet me with a smile
Sunspots have faded, now I'm doing time
Now I'm doing time_

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin just to watch the hissy-fit that is going on as we speak. I hope the bastard is chewing the rug but good.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

Seems somebody spent a lot of time counting russian equipment lost while trying to cross Siverskyi Donets

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Seems somebody spent a lot of time counting russian equipment lost while trying to cross Siverskyi Donets




Someone got their ass handed to them by a time-on-target shoot.

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## SaparotRob (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With Ukraine saving Kharkiv and pushing the Russians back to within kms of the Ukraine border it must have dawned on both sides that the UAF may have the growing strength and momentum to retake all of Ukraine, including the Donbas. Russia needs to up its game. My guess, a new offensive on Kiyv by the Belorussians. I’d say Crimea is forever lost though.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Did Russia “replace “ Ukrainians with more compliant Russians in Crimea? If so, then Ukraine will have big problems trying to reclaim its territory. 
With the morale problem Russian troops have, are the Separatists in the same boat?

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

Those Ukrainian are really inventive and resourceful. Video of tiny drones harassing Russian troops with tiny bombs.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Regarding the Turkish Straights:
> NO military ship or ship carrying military hardware is currently allowed passage, regardless of nation or allegiance.
> 
> Doesn't matter if it's a landing craft with "aircrafts", a freighter with armored cars or anything in between.
> ...


More issues for lawyers to get rich, since the Montreux Convention is the only paper with an international approval. - what Turkey independently decides is not really of international significance. Since Bulgaria and Rumania border the Black Sea and are NATO members as well already invalidates such a law enactment. That Erdogan is "unofficially" supporting another dictator is no secret and he's got his own war-crimes to justify.


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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did Russia “replace “ Ukrainians with more compliant Russians in Crimea? If so, then Ukraine will have big problems trying to reclaim its territory.
> With the morale problem Russian troops have, are the Separatists in the same boat?


As I had stated before, those doing most of the fighting and taking the brunt of the losses are the DNLR troops - not the Russian army in regards to manpower losses.

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## Greg Boeser (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Do the citizens of the existing NATO countries have a say? As a Canadian and Brit I fully support welcoming both Finland and Sweden into NATO. But we should consider that the wider NATO spreads the more likely the West’s sons and daughters will be sent into the grinder. I‘m alright with that, but are America’s parents willing to sacrifice their sons for the seemingly distant places like Finland, or even existing members like Bulgaria? This POTUS? No question, but the last POTUS and maybe the next POTUSes (is that POTI?) I’m not so sure. While my southern neighbour doesn’t shirk from bombing Muslim despots and intervening where they perceive interest, they also have a strong isolationist streak.
> 
> It’s now history rather than contemporary politics so I think it’s safe (from Moderator sanction) to wonder here how POTUS45 would have reacted to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and how he would have dealt with Europe, NATO and its expansion.


POTUS45 was very direct when dealing with NATO. Insisting that European countries increase their military budgets to meet the 2% treaty requirement and pointing out that being dependent on Russian oil and gas was "inappropriate". He was especially critical of Germany's overdependence on Russian energy, and the Nordstream II pipeline. He was the first US president to authorize and deliver lethal aid to Ukraine in their continuing fight against Russian expansionism.

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## Crimea_River (May 12, 2022)

at6 said:


> Now the Russians are selling purloined Ukrainian grain to Syria and other "friendly" countries. The Ukrainians should have poisoned it just to kill the thieves off like Tribbles.



If you are joking it's far from funny. If you are serious it's very disturbing.


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## Wildcat (May 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I agree. We’re going to have to do a first strike on Coney Island (aka “Little Odesa “).


I hereby volunteer my services to inspect  interrogate all captured Russian mail order brides.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Estonia, Latvia donated 1/3 of their military budget to Ukraine.

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## swampyankee (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Do the citizens of the existing NATO countries have a say? As a Canadian and Brit I fully support welcoming both Finland and Sweden into NATO. But we should consider that the wider NATO spreads the more likely the West’s sons and daughters will be sent into the grinder. I‘m alright with that, but are America’s parents willing to sacrifice their sons for the seemingly distant places like Finland, or even existing members like Bulgaria? This POTUS? No question, but the last POTUS and maybe the next POTUSes (is that POTI?) I’m not so sure. While my southern neighbour doesn’t shirk from bombing Muslim despots and intervening where they perceive interest, they also have a strong isolationist streak.
> 
> It’s now history rather than contemporary politics so I think it’s safe (from Moderator sanction) to wonder here how POTUS45 would have reacted to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and how he would have dealt with Europe, NATO and its expansion.


one 45's ex-officials said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine as 45's policies regarding NATO and Europe were very much to Putin's liking

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> one 45's ex-officials said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine as 45's policies regarding NATO and Europe were very much to Putin's liking


That seems like a reason TO invade, to strike while the opportunity presents itself. Mind you, POTUS44 didn't do much when Russia took Crimea, nor POTUS43 when Russia annexed part of Georgia. So, maybe Putin figured no matter the POTUS the US wouldn't care what he did in Ukraine.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> one 45's ex-officials said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine as 45's policies regarding NATO and Europe were very much to Putin's liking



He was Putin’s employee of the year at the time.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

More on Russian claims. Notice how Ukrainian loses for same event grow day to day.

This is related to the supposed Ukrainian assault on Snake Island. No evidence of it has been shown other than Ukrainian vids showing they attacked the Russians there, with visually confirmed Russian loses. Maybe they did and failed, but so far Russians provided no evidence only claims.







A few days later:






And sometimes they add a few ships too:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That seems like a reason TO invade, to strike while the opportunity presents itself. Mind you, POTUS44 didn't do much when Russia took Crimea, nor POTUS43 when Russia annexed a good part of Georgia. So, maybe Putin figured no matter the POTUS that the US wouldn't care what he did in Ukraine.



It’s more about the attempted dismantling and purposeful weakening of NATO internally.

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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> More issues for lawyers to get rich, since the Montreux Convention is the only paper with an international approval. - what Turkey independently decides is not really of international significance. Since Bulgaria and Rumania border the Black Sea and are NATO members as well already invalidates such a law enactment. That Erdogan is "unofficially" supporting another dictator is no secret and he's got his own war-crimes to justify.


Turkey is not allowing any warships through - any, meaning none.

Russian, Georgian, Romanian, Bulgarian, French, Canadian South Korean, etc., etc., etc.

They have done this to maintain absolute neutrality. Allowing Russian warships through would be an indication of supporting Russia.
Allowing any NATO ships through would indicate favoritism (Bulgaria and Romania are NATO members).
Allowing any other warships passage may be seen as political.

So they've decided to enforce Artical 19 with sub-Artical 23 caveats.

Nothing to do with "dictators", "lawyers" or whatever.

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## swampyankee (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That seems like a reason TO invade, to strike while the opportunity presents itself. Mind you, POTUS44 didn't do much when Russia took Crimea, nor POTUS43 when Russia annexed part of Georgia. So, maybe Putin figured no matter the POTUS the US wouldn't care what he did in Ukraine.


Preventing expansion of NATO was one pf Putin's stated war aims. Since of of 45's oft-stated opinions was his disdain for NATO and his willingness to pull out, Putin could have just waited for 45 to destroy NATO, and he could restore the Russian hegemony that predated the collapse of the USSR and the end pf the Russian Empire.

His revanchism has run into a harsh reality and a more effective NATO response than he would have ever expected based on 45's policies and rhetoric

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But we should consider that the wider NATO spreads the more likely the West’s sons and daughters will be sent into the grinder


Sorry, I don't understand this argument. It is based on what? Neither USSR nor RF dared to attack any NATO country or to engage NATO forces directly in any serious confrontation, with some exceptions such as air battles during the early Cold War. Or, the most recent - Battle of Khasham. 
On the other hand, Moldova in 1992, Georgia in 1992-1993 and 2008, and Ukraine in 2014, they were non-NATO countries and victims of the Kremlin's aggression. During the Cold War: Afghanistan, Czechoslovakia, Hungary. Turkey was bullied and intimidated by USSR during the post-WWII Turkish Straits crisis... until it joined NATO.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> More on Russian claims. Notice how Ukrainian loses for same event grow day to day.
> 
> This is related to the supposed Ukrainian assault on Snake Island. No evidence of it has been shown other than Ukrainian vids showing they attacked the Russians there, with visually confirmed Russian loses. Maybe they did and failed, but so far Russians provided no evidence only claims.
> 
> ...


So far, the loss of Mi-14 and two pilots were confirmed in Ukraine. Since Mi-14 is an antisubmarine warfare helicopter, it could be involved in both transport missions and ASW operations. 
Russian channels are full of speculations about the "victory" in the battle and counts of hundreds of Ukrainian KIA and dozens of boats and aircraft. But no pictures, no videos.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Did I miss something on this thread, or has the western media confirmed that Colonel Ihor Bedzai, Deputy Commander of the Navy for Aviation, died in the Ukrainian sky. He is better known as the former commander of the 10th Naval Aviation Brigade from Novofedorivka, near Saky, Crimea. Shot down in his aircraft Mi-14 by a Russian missile.


It was confirmed in Ukraine. Colonel Ihor Bedzai and Captain Serhi Muschitsky were buried today in Mykolayiv.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did Russia “replace “ Ukrainians with more compliant Russians in Crimea? If so, then Ukraine will have big problems trying to reclaim its territory.
> With the morale problem Russian troops have, are the Separatists in the same boat?


30,000 to 50,000 left Crimea for mainland Ukraine since the 2014 occupation. How many went to other countries, remained unknown. About 500,000 arrived in Crimea from all over the Russian Federation.

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Sorry, I don't understand this argument.


No apology necessary. If your position is that pre-expansion NATO and new NATO abutting against the Russian border have the exact same, presumably zero risk of Russian aggression, then you won't.

But we're entering into new times, where an autocratic and increasingly erratic, paranoid and unpredictable pariah state in Russia cannot be guaranteed to act with the reasonable pragmatism of the Cold War. If for example, Ukraine had been allowed into NATO per its request in 2017 I am not convinced that Putin would have sat back and excepted the situation. No, he wouldn't have marched tanks towards Kyiv, but regime change and attacks from the puppet republics in the Dombas would have likely been on the agenda. If Moscow-backed, Russian-speaking separatists from both Donbas and within post-2014 Ukraine took up arms, would NATO be expected to enter what is essentially a Yugoslavian-like civil war? That's what Putin would have likely have done.

Today's Russia and Putin is clearly a sick, paranoid place, capable of irrational or risky behaviour, gross miscalculations and boneheaded mistakes, like shooting down that Malaysian airliner, launching poison attacks in London, or acting entirely against his plan to weaken and destabilize NATO by invading Ukraine causing BOTH the uniting and expanding of NATO. The past is not always a predictor of the future.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

I like how she thinks, can't agree more. It's worth a read.









Europe’s new Iron Lady: Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas


The Baltic leader has become the EU’s strongest advocate for an uncompromising response to Russia.




www.newstatesman.com

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Turkey is not allowing any warships through - any, meaning none.
> 
> Russian, Georgian, Romanian, Bulgarian, French, Canadian South Korean, etc., etc., etc.
> 
> ...


I don't know were you derive this from, we had held that discussion already and I will forward the respective articles again.

Article 19.
*In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and
navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.
Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not however, pass through the Straits *except in
cases arising out of the application of Article 25 of the present Convention, and in cases of assistance
rendered to a State victim of aggression in virtue of a treaty of mutual assistance binding-Turkey,
concluded within the framework of the Covenant of the League of Nations, and registered and
published in accordance with the provisions of Article 18 of the Covenant.
In the exceptional cases provided for in the preceding paragraph, the limitations laid down in Article 10
to 18 of the present Convention shall not be applicable.
Notwithstanding the prohibition of passage laid down in paragraph 2 above, vessels of war belonging
to belligerent Powers, whether they are Black Sea Powers or not, which have become separated from
their bases, may return thereto.
Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit
and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.

*Article 20.*
In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the
passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.

Article 21.
*Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right
to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.*

1.Turkey is* not *a belligerent
2.Turkey has *not* been threatened with imminent danger of war, as such they can't invoke Article 20

Article 23 (which you cited) regulates the passage of civilian aircraft - nothing else

So there is absolutely no Article within the Montreux Convention that would sanction or allow for a regulation by Turkey that bars everyone's warships at the present moment.

But Erdogan is the Turkish version of Putin - with the same war-crimes record, NATO partner or not.



https://europavarietas.org/csdp/files/Montreux_ENG.pdf

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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> He was the first US president to authorize and deliver lethal aid to Ukraine in their continuing fight against Russian expansionism.


Err...it was a congressionally mandated $400 million military aid package that he held up as he wanted a political favour which led to his first impeachment.

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I like how she thinks, can't agree more. It's worth a read.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I like this part....

_Kallas fundamentally rejects the idea that an end to the conflict should be sought at any price. "I think what everybody has to understand is that peace is not an ultimate goal if it means that the aggression pays off," she says. "What I mean by this is that when you say 'OK, let it be peace and everybody stays where they are', it still means that Russia has taken a big part of Ukraine's territory, Ukraine being a sovereign, independent country._

My worry is that the US and much of the western world outside of Europe doesn't share this POV, that they may tire and lose interest, fall into domestic distractions (Nov's Congressional elections, abortion/culture war debates, etc. and especially the lead up to a new POTUS in Jan 2025), and seize upon any ceasefire called by Putin as a start of the negotiations and a return to business. But I must reject that line of thinking and remain optimistic that the US, NATO and likeminded countries have the backbone to see this through.

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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He was Putin’s employee of the year at the time.





swampyankee said:


> one 45's ex-officials said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine as 45's policies regarding NATO and Europe were very much to Putin's liking


Yeah, why invade when you have your man in Washington doing your work for you...

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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Putin could have just waited for 45 to destroy NATO, and he could restore the Russian hegemony that predated the collapse of the USSR and the end pf the Russian Empire.


But then that nasty thing of the election loss interfered with things...

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I don't know were you derive this from, we had held that discussion already and I will forward the respective articles again.
> 
> Article 19.
> *In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and
> ...


Turkey was given the right (Article 21) and Erdogan used that right. His actions were not questioned or protested, at least publicly.
For Ukraine, this is a problem, indeed. NATO ships' presence in the Black Sea would be helpful, at least, for better reconnaissance.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No apology necessary. If your position is that pre-expansion NATO and new NATO abutting against the Russian border have the exact same, presumably zero risk of Russian aggression, then you won't.
> 
> But we're entering into new times, where an autocratic and increasingly erratic, paranoid and unpredictable pariah state in Russia cannot be guaranteed to act with the reasonable pragmatism of the Cold War. If for example, Ukraine had been allowed into NATO per its request in 2017 I am not convinced that Putin would have sat back and excepted the situation. No, he wouldn't have marched tanks towards Kyiv, but regime change and attacks from the puppet republics in the Dombas would have likely been on the agenda. If Moscow-backed, Russian-speaking separatists from both Donbas and within post-2014 Ukraine took up arms, would NATO be expected to enter what is essentially a Yugoslavian-like civil war? That's what Putin would have likely have done.
> 
> Today's Russia and Putin is clearly a sick, paranoid place, capable of irrational or risky behaviour, gross miscalculations and boneheaded mistakes, like shooting down that Malaysian airliner, launching poison attacks in London, or acting entirely against his plan to weaken and destabilize NATO by invading Ukraine causing BOTH the uniting and expanding of NATO. The past is not always a predictor of the future.


Are you sure about Putin being involved in MH17? All that seems to be secured evidence points to a Russian supplied SAM system operated by Separatists. 
As for the rest of your post I fully agree - Putin is extremely unpredictable since a western analytic approach is non-suitable to evaluate that kind of Eastern-European mindset.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

It's hard to believe that but Ukrainian forces continue to fight and counterattack at Azovstal' in Mariupol.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

Lets all (myself included) be very careful. We are treading very dangerously in the political waters despite the accuracy of it.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Turkey was given the right (Article 21) and Erdogan used that right. His actions were not questioned or protested, at least publicly.
> For Ukraine, this is a problem, indeed. NATO ships' presence in the Black Sea would be helpful, at least, for better reconnaissance.


Okay we agree to disagree, since IMO there is no imminent threat or danger of war towards Turkey - who is a NATO member!!!! 
Using the same logic, Germany and all others should refuse sending weapons to Ukraine since it would pose an imminent threat or danger of war.


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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Are you sure about Putin being involved in MH17? All that seems to be secured evidence points to a Russian supplied SAM system operated by Separatists.


I agree, MH17 was shot down by Separatists.... but those chaps are backed and armed by Putin. I believe the shootdown was a mistake, but if you give long range SAMs to incapable fools, there's a great chance they'll use them foolishly. In this way it's another demonstration of Putin's lack of big picture thinking and forethought, the same which led to his total misunderstanding of how the US, NATO and the Western world would react when he invaded Ukraine.

And an aside, it's amazing to me that MH370 is still out there somewhere. Malaysian Airlines B777 still missing

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## Jerad (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> As I had stated before, those doing most of the fighting and taking the brunt of the losses are the DNLR troops - not the Russian army in regards to manpower losses.


There are many videos on YouTube with captured Russian soldiers. Of course, I didn't watch each, but I can roughly say that out of 10 prisoners, 9 are citizens
Russia. On the Kiev and Chernigov direction, videos with many prisoners appeared from the first days of the war, but there were no immigrants from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions among them. Perhaps for political reasonsfor some reason they are not shown to us, but there were such prisoners in the Sumy region, and have video with people from Donetsk\Luhansk. I thought that this argument could shed some light on your theory about the losses of the Russian Federation/Donetsk\Luhansk. Regards.


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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay we agree to disagree, since IMO there is no imminent threat or danger of war towards Turkey - who is a NATO member!!!!


If Russia does attack NATO, can Turkey toss the Convention and allow its NATO allies to send dozens of warships into the Black Sea?


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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

Finland's leaders back application to join NATO 'without delay'


Finland is virtually certain to seek NATO membership, with neighbouring Sweden expected to decide on joining the military alliance in the coming days.




www.abc.net.au

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Russia does attack NATO, can Turkey toss the Convention and allow its NATO allies to send dozens of warships into the Black Sea?


Off course, that is why Putin will not attack Turkey, and therefore there is IMO no threat or imminent war danger for Turkey

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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I don't know were you derive this from, we had held that discussion already and I will forward the respective articles again.
> 
> Article 19.
> *In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and
> ...


*yawn*

You obviously beleive what you like, that's your choice.

That fact of the matter is, they aren't allowing any warships through.

I posted that fact (yes, fact) earlier, although that doesn't mean you'll read it, because, well, facts.

So, I suppose at this point: carry on.


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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Okay we agree to disagree, since IMO there is no imminent threat or danger of war towards Turkey - who is a NATO member!!!!
> Using the same logic, Germany and all others should refuse sending weapons to Ukraine since it would pose an imminent threat or danger of war.


What I mean is that Turkey can say that they see the imminent danger, and how to disprove that? It's about the same distance from missile sites in Crimea to Turkey as to Ukraine. They have fishing and merchant ships around the sea, etc.
Just my speculation, of course. I was very surprised that Ankara's implementation of Article 21 was not criticised.

As for Germany...well, they did refuse, not so long time ago. And many other countries. Luckily, they changed their minds and realised where the real danger is.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> As I had stated before, those doing most of the fighting and taking the brunt of the losses are the DNLR troops - not the Russian army in regards to manpower losses.


1. There are no detailed statistics on the Russian and separatist losses. Any claim is impossible to verify.
2. DNR/LNR troops did not participate in assaults in Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions at all. Their presence was hardly seen in Kherson, Kharkiv (until recently) and Mykolayiv regions. They did fight intensively along the earlier (until Feb-Mar 2022) frontlines in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Allegedly, they were used as "cannon fodder" in many instances.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Jerad said:


> There are many videos on YouTube with captured Russian soldiers. Of course, I didn't watch each, but I can roughly say that out of 10 prisoners, 9 are citizens
> Russia. On the Kiev and Chernigov direction, videos with many prisoners appeared from the first days of the war, but there were no immigrants from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions among them. Perhaps for political reasonsfor some reason they are not shown to us, but there were such prisoners in the Sumy region, and have video with people from Donetsk\Luhansk. I thought that this argument could shed some light on your theory about the losses of the Russian Federation/Donetsk\Luhansk. Regards.


There were a lot of Russian casualties - in the first 6-7 weeks of the war, especially around Kiev and the Sumy region. And certain Russian units are continuing supporting via ground combat the DNLR units and other militias since Mid April. Most separatists if not all have been given Russian citizenship independent of their Donbass or whatever Republic status.
Let's see what happens after June-July when Putin might be forced to really send in the Russian army, but the tactic he is pursuing since mid-April is clearly trying to avoid this.
Anyway, that just me talking about something with no sources to provide.

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## Dimlee (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Are you sure about Putin being involved in MH17? All that seems to be secured evidence points to a Russian supplied SAM system operated by Separatists.
> As for the rest of your post I fully agree - Putin is extremely unpredictable since a western analytic approach is non-suitable to evaluate that kind of Eastern-European mindset.


Official information presented in Dutch court: SAM was delivered and operated by the Russian military. Separatists provided escort and other assistance.

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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

Russian soldiers wrought havoc on Chernobyl, but the cost of digging up radioactive dirt could stay with them forever


When Russian troops took Chernobyl, they drove their tanks through the highly contaminated Red Forest and dug trenches in the toxic earth. They're mistakes that could catch up with them.




www.abc.net.au

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Official information presented in Dutch court: SAM was delivered and operated by the Russian military. Separatists provided escort and other assistance.



But was that reported by the Moscow Times?

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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Let's see what happens after June-July when Putin might be forced to really send in the Russian army....


By June or especially July the Ukrainians will be well armed and prepared for that. Putin had better strike with all he's got now before all the artillery, counter-battery systems and other heavy weapons start arriving at the front in large numbers.


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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> By June or especially July the Ukrainians will be well armed and prepared for that. Putin had better strike with all he's got now before all the artillery, counter-battery systems and other heavy weapons start arriving at the front in large numbers.


And I think that is exactly as to what will push his decision to really bring in the RF or not.


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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Official information presented in Dutch court: SAM was delivered and operated by the Russian military. Separatists provided escort and other assistance.


I had just checked two sites regarding the Dutch inquiry towards MH17 - and there is no statement as to Russian military having operated that SAM.
If you have a source that states so please kindly let me know.


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## GTX (May 12, 2022)



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## GTX (May 12, 2022)

Ukrainians reveal what life is like in Russian-occupied cities


Residents of the cities taken and held by the invading forces reveal what life is like under Russian occupation, where the supermarket shelves are bare and masked foreign soldiers roam the streets.




www.abc.net.au

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2022)

Putler's problem: how to obtain Ukraine at minimum cost and without queering the pitch for future "liberation" operations?


swampyankee said:


> one 45's ex-officials said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine as 45's policies regarding NATO and Europe were very much to Putin's liking


Aha! Creeping infiltration and subversion.



Admiral Beez said:


> he wouldn't have marched tanks towards Kyiv, but regime change and attacks from the puppet republics in the Dombas would have likely been on the agenda.


Easy does it, we've got an ally in the White House.


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He was Putin’s employee of the year at the time.


He'll get elected in a landslide. Those American nazis love him. Keep digging and keep a low profile.


GTX said:


> But then that nasty thing of the election loss interfered with things...


Holy Crap! They moved the goalposts on us! Gotta wake the Red Army up and get it rolling. Time's a wasting! Time to annunciate the "Putler Doctrine" to show we mean business.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Turkey is not allowing any warships through - any, meaning none.
> 
> Russian, Georgian, Romanian, Bulgarian, French, Canadian South Korean, etc., etc., etc.
> 
> ...



... and without trying to be too crass, possession is 9/10 of the law anyway.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... and without trying to be too crass, possession is 9/10 of the law anyway.


Viva crass! Reality isn't always pretty.

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## buffnut453 (May 12, 2022)

After the Admiral Makarov kerfuffle last week, hopefully this reporting is more accurate:
_
Ukrainian forces have damaged a Russian navy logistics ship in the Black Sea, setting it on fire, Reuters has reported a spokesman for Odesa's military as saying.

Spokesman Serhiy Bratchuk says the Vsevolod Bobrov has been struck near Snake Island, according to Reuters.

The tiny island is located near Ukraine's sea border with Romania.

There are also reports of a Russian Mi-24 helicopter gunship being shot down in Luhansk Region.

"Ukraine detected a group of four enemy helicopters and shot down the leader of the second pair," a Ukrainian air assault forces commander said on Facebook.

The BBC has not verified the claims_

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## Denniss (May 12, 2022)

Hehe, another Snake bite although not fatal this time.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I like this part....
> 
> _Kallas fundamentally rejects the idea that an end to the conflict should be sought at any price. "I think what everybody has to understand is that peace is not an ultimate goal if it means that the aggression pays off," she says. "What I mean by this is that when you say 'OK, let it be peace and everybody stays where they are', it still means that Russia has taken a big part of Ukraine's territory, Ukraine being a sovereign, independent country._
> 
> My worry is that the US and much of the western world outside of Europe doesn't share this POV, that they may tire and lose interest, fall into domestic distractions (Nov's Congressional elections, abortion/culture war debates, etc. and especially the lead up to a new POTUS in Jan 2025), and seize upon any ceasefire called by Putin as a start of the negotiations and a return to business. But I must reject that line of thinking and remain optimistic that the US, NATO and likeminded countries have the backbone to see this through.


I think that even in Europe only Eastern Europe shares this view. Basically I think that countries that were formerly part of Soviet Union like Baltic states or Warsaw pact like Poland had suffered being on the sphere of influence of the Russians and don't want to go back.

Its just anecdotic, but I've been in Prague a few weeks ago, and I had the feeling that Czechs showed much stronger support for Ukraine than Western Europe

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## Greg Boeser (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I like this part....
> 
> _Kallas fundamentally rejects the idea that an end to the conflict should be sought at any price. "I think what everybody has to understand is that peace is not an ultimate goal if it means that the aggression pays off," she says. "What I mean by this is that when you say 'OK, let it be peace and everybody stays where they are', it still means that Russia has taken a big part of Ukraine's territory, Ukraine being a sovereign, independent country._
> 
> My worry is that the US and much of the western world outside of Europe doesn't share this POV, that they may tire and lose interest, fall into domestic distractions (Nov's Congressional elections, abortion/culture war debates, etc. and especially the lead up to a new POTUS in Jan 2025), and seize upon any ceasefire called by Putin as a start of the negotiations and a return to business. But I must reject that line of thinking and remain optimistic that the US, NATO and likeminded countries have the backbone to see this through.


I share your concern. Especially considering the US first reaction to Russia's aggression was to offer Zelensky a nice safe airplane ride into exile and obscurity. I credit Zelensky's defiance in the face of Russia's invasion as the spark that galvanized the West into action. Currently Ukraine is the darling, but as this drags on, and people begin to tire of the economic drain (those billions on aid don't just materialize out of thin air) and the burden of taking care of all those refugees, as well as the global effects of the disruptions in trade hit home people are going to be looking for scapegoats.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 12, 2022)

[sarcasm mode=on]

If its not reported in the Moscow Times or RT, can it be trusted???

Asking for a friend.

[/sarcasm mode= off]

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## RogerdeLluria (May 12, 2022)

Not sure if it has been posted before.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/11/russia-sanctions-effect-military/

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## Wildcat (May 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> After the Admiral Makarov kerfuffle last week, hopefully this reporting is more accurate:
> 
> _Ukrainian forces have damaged a Russian navy logistics ship in the Black Sea, setting it on fire, Reuters has reported a spokesman for Odesa's military as saying.
> 
> ...


This article states the ship as the Vsevolod Bobrov.
Russian logistics ship ‘on fire in Black Sea after Ukrainian strike’

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## Jabberwocky (May 12, 2022)

Interesting open source intelligence post about users of Russian mobile/cellular networks inside Ukraine.



Data reportedly from the end of March or early April.

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## Jabberwocky (May 12, 2022)

Couple of sources also reporting Ukraine's northern counterattack around Kharkiv has reached the Russian border in a few places. Russian troops appear to have gone over to the defense and are withdrawing over the border or east to shorten their lines. 

Reports are that up to 20 BTGs are withdrawing into Belgorod and positions to the west of the Seversky Donets to lick their wounds, including the entirety of the 1st Guards Tank Army. That's about 20% of Russia's total combat power in Ukraine. UK MoD expects them to take up blocking positions to prevent further eastward expansion.

Speculation is that the eastward drive will likely turn southeast, potentially moving towards Balakliya. This could relieve some pressure on Ukrainian forces defending against the drive from Izyum (which has slowed considerably anyway).

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## SaparotRob (May 12, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Interesting open source intelligence post about users of Russian mobile/cellular networks inside Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> Data reportedly from the end of March or early April.



Looks like great targeting information for M-777s.

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## Greg Boeser (May 12, 2022)

They would need something more current.

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## SaparotRob (May 12, 2022)

Anybody know the Russian C.O.'s phone number?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Anybody know the Russian C.O.'s phone number?



867-5309

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... and without trying to be too crass, possession is 9/10 of the law anyway.


Can I say, that China is very appreciative about yours and Graugeist's opinion and conviction towards freedom of passage and access towards controlled/possessed waters?

Being the USA, I would be very concerned at the least about Turkey's disregard for the Montreux Convention - especially if hindering NATO war-vessels from traveling to other threatened NATO countries. and being the USA I couldn't give a rats ass about Turkeys - unproven - claim of fearing an imminent war with Russia. Since the Baltic states are far closer to Russia and are willing to support NATO respectively the Ukrainian government and even Finland willing to take the Russian threats by applying to join NATO.

Daily Intel and NATO surveillance has not come up with any indications about Russia preparing for a war with Turkey on or near it's border. (especially since they do not even share a common land border). And in words or in regards to possession of missiles, Putin has made already enough threats towards all those supporting the Ukraine. 

Erdogan is just another lame dictator and war-criminal helping Putin to solidify Russia's naval advantage in the Black Sea. 

Nuff said, and I will retire now from this specific topic......


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## Admiral Beez (May 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Its just anecdotic, but I've been in Prague a few weeks ago, and I had the feeling that Czechs showed much stronger support for Ukraine than Western Europe


Because they remember being under Russian rule, and fear they’re next.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Can I say, that China is very appreciative about yours and Graugeist's opinion and conviction towards freedom of passage and access towards controlled/possessed waters?



Not sure about your point here. Perhaps you could explicate?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Because they remember being under Russian rule, and fear they’re next.



They're also a little closer.

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## SaparotRob (May 12, 2022)

By some chance, could it have been convenient for NATO that Turkey kept the Black Sea closed, at least until now?

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> By some chance, could it have been convenient for NATO that Turkey kept the Black Sea closed, at least until now?


Why - for what reason? since the Montreux Convention gives Turkey all the rights (and which they had initially rightfully done) to deny access to Russian warships (e.g. those stationed in Syria or elsewhere) into the Black Sea.


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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2022)

Once again, here is the overview and analysis of what's going on with the Turkish Straights.

Many good points presented, too.









Turkey Must Close the Turkish Straits Only to Russian and Ukrainian Warships


Turkey’s current chosen path of attempting to close the straits to all warships oversteps the Montreux Convention and risks replacing a long-standing set of rules vital to Turkish security with arbitrary restrictions.




www.lawfareblog.com

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They're also a little closer.


Czechia is more or less as close to Russia as is Germany. But if one has been exploited and subjugated for decades by the Soviets - then there is understandably no big love towards
Moscow.

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## Greg Boeser (May 12, 2022)

I grew up in a predominantly Polish neighborhood. My neighbors hated the Germans, but despised the Russians.

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## Jagdflieger (May 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Once again, here is the overview and analysis of what's going on with the Turkish Straights.
> 
> Many good points presented, too.
> 
> ...


And me saying since weeks exactly the same thing you answer:

_*yawn*
You obviously beleive what you like, that's your choice.
That fact of the matter is, they aren't allowing any warships through.
I posted that fact (yes, fact) earlier, although that doesn't mean you'll read it, because, well, facts.
So, I suppose at this point: carry on._

As my favorite sentence in the movie Green berets: - you funny


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## GrauGeist (May 12, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> And me saying since weeks exactly the same thing you answer:
> 
> _*yawn*
> You obviously beleive what you like, that's your choice.
> ...


Well, there's a huge difference here - I have provided a legal analysis that covers what Turkey is doing, how far they have pushed Artical 19 and what motive may be behind it.

You have provided your opinion.

If shaking one's head could be considered laughing, then I am laughing - slowly...

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## Jabberwocky (May 12, 2022)

Interesting legal and strategic analysis of Turkey's actions (or lack of actions)



https://lieber.westpoint.edu/montreux-convention-turkeys-impact-black-sea-operations/



It's a long read, but here are the conclusions::

The upshot is that *Turkey retains wide latitude to interpret current events unilaterally*. The *Montreux Convention is heavy on legal ambiguity *but light on historical precedent. At bottom, Turkey's sole discretion in controlling a vital narrow sea likely yields an outsized strategic impact on allied nations during a period of hostility. For example,* Turkey's tacit "invocation" of Article 21 has, to date, succeeded in halting all warship traffic*—regardless of nationality—into the Black Sea. Moreover, as* we are in a pseudo-Article 21 regime* it is feasible—though legally questionable—that Turkey retains the authority to open the Straits to warships of specific nations as it deems appropriate, providing a strategic military advantage for designated States. To that end, we have seen Turkey avail itself of its singular position and exercise its discretion accordingly.​​Though *the nation's actions are debatably positive insofar as they mitigate escalation, the implicit or tacit invocation of its authority to do so may well be at odds with the spirit of Montreux*. To realign its actions and keep the global community apprised of its thinking, Turkey should publicly and explicitly clarify its position with regard to Montreux in the coming days and weeks. To start, Turkey should provide its justification, however scant, for stretching of Article 19 to prevent _all_ warships from transiting the Straits.​​Given Turkey's opacity to date, it would behoove the United States and NATO allies to attain a clear line of communication with the Turkish government to garner their real-time intent with regard to the Convention and plan maritime strategy accordingly. Reliance on said communications with a historically mercurial ally carries its own strategic risk for which the United States and NATO allies must account.​

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## GrauGeist (May 13, 2022)

The way I see it, Turkey blocking access to all warships (native and non-native) is a smart move.

This prevents any provocation, political posturing and most importantly: "accidents".
Currently, there is an issue with free-floating mines creating a hazard in the region. If a NATO warship (other than Romania or Bulgaria) was in the area and a Russian Ship struck it, they could claim they were attacked, etc.

Russia wants to reinforce their Black Sea fleet and has a number of ships in the eastern Med, but Turkey is standing firm on their position.

At the moment, I really don't see any reason why a Warship from any outside nation needs to be in that sea.

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## SaparotRob (May 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The way I see it, Turkey blocking access to all warships (native and non-native) is a smart move.
> 
> This prevents any provocation, political posturing and most importantly: "accidents".
> Currently, there is an issue with free-floating mines creating a hazard in the region. If a NATO warship (other than Romania or Bulgaria) was in the area and a Russian Ship struck it, they could claim they were attacked, etc.
> ...


You always say it better than I do.

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## SaparotRob (May 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Why - for what reason? since the Montreux Convention gives Turkey all the rights (and which they had initially rightfully done) to deny access to Russian warships (e.g. those stationed in Syria or elsewhere) into the Black Sea.


I doubt this situation was gamed at the War College prior to 24 Feb. 
So, Russia has a fleet in the Med. They're denied access to the Black Sea. NATO has the 6th Fleet in the Med. The RN probably hasn't forgotten about Malta so I'm guessing that Her Majesty is well represented too. NATO assets in the Med, however, might not be set up for current situation. NATO hasn't had a "need" to enter the Black Sea, yet. Turkey keeps a lid on things, for a while. Romania decides it needs some mines swept up. Israel might have a minesweeper . Now, that a suitable amount of time for equipping has passed, NATO can bring up the Montreux Convention. 
Hey, I called the MiG-29 thing.

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## GrauGeist (May 13, 2022)

Both the Bulgarian Navy and the Romanian Navy are helping the Turkish Navy in locating the mines.

So far, as I've read, an Estonian cargo ship and a Russian cargo ship have struck mines. Several Turkish fishermen have helped by calling in locations of mines spotted.

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## J_P_C (May 13, 2022)



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## J_P_C (May 13, 2022)



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## ThomasP (May 13, 2022)

There have been numerous studies done by the US and NATO relative to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The thing to remember about the situation in the Black Sea, is that unless the US and/or NATO wish to go to full scale war with Russia, they cannot attack (unprovoked) the Black Sea Fleet ships. There is no need to have any US or NATO ships in the Black Sea, at least not in a military sense, unless the US and/or NATO are planning on imminent attack.

Plus, if the US and/or NATO wanted to attack/neutralize/destroy the Black Sea Fleet, they would not have to use naval forces to do so. Aircraft flying from land bases using air-launched anti-ship weapons (ie ~Harpoon, Tomahawk, HARM), along with surface ship and submarine launched Tomahawk cruise missiles, would clear the Russian ships from the open sea in very short order. Their only hope of having surface ships surviving any length of time would be to retreat to their harbours under protection of Russian Air Force and land-based AA systems.

In studies during the height of the later Cold War period, the best the Soviet Navy ever achieved was to have a significant number of its submarines survive past the death of their surface fleet. The best the Soviet surface fleet ever managed was to have 10% of its surface combat ships survive past 2 weeks. This was assuming that the Soviet surface navy sortied to attack the US and/or NATO surface and submarine units, while also helping their submarine fleet deploy under a protective umbrella. This was also assuming that it was a conventional war, and that there was some warning and therefore time for both sides to prepare.

As an added bit of info, the US all by itself (with some lead time) currently has the ability to deliver ~180 (or more) Harpoon and/or Tomahawk anti-ship missiles on target anywhere in the world on the open seas or in coastal waters. All arriving on target within a couple of minutes if so desired.

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## ThomasP (May 13, 2022)

re the logistics ship damaged yesterday near Snake Island

The Vsevolod Bobrov is a sea-going tug and ice breaker design, sometimes used as a multi-roll transport for small amounts of cargo and personnel.







"Elbrus Class (Project 23120) Logistics Support Vessels"

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>



Seems to be a frequent issue with contra-rotating propeller/rotor systems.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> The upshot is that *Turkey retains wide latitude to interpret current events unilaterally*. The *Montreux Convention is heavy on legal ambiguity *but light on historical precedent. At bottom, Turkey's sole discretion in controlling a vital narrow sea likely yields an outsized strategic impact on allied nations during a period of hostility. For example,* Turkey's tacit "invocation" of A rticle 21 has, to date, succeeded in halting all warship traffic*—regardless of nationality—into the Black Sea.


I wonder if being a NATO member, and NATO being "threatened' by Putler would pass muster under the "imminent threat" provision of Article 21.

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## wlewisiii (May 13, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, there's a huge difference here - I have provided a legal analysis that covers what Turkey is doing, how far they have pushed Artical 19 and what motive may be behind it.
> 
> You have provided your opinion.
> 
> If shaking one's head could be considered laughing, then I am laughing - slowly...


"yawn"


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## Jagdflieger (May 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> There have been numerous studies done by the US and NATO relative to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
> 
> The thing to remember about the situation in the Black Sea, is that unless the US and/or NATO wish to go to full scale war with Russia, they cannot attack (unprovoked) the Black Sea Fleet ships. There is no need to have any US or NATO ships in the Black Sea, at least not in a military sense, unless the US and/or NATO are planning on imminent attack.
> 
> ...


Agreed, but NATO members bringing in their own combat naval assets into the Black Sea to actively participate in a war against Russia isn't the issue - at least not for now.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

All this yawning going on is making me super tired.

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## vikingBerserker (May 13, 2022)

If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.









Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river


Russian troops launched a second mission to cross the Donets River near Bilohorivka on Thursday, Ukraine said, in an attempt to rescue troops stranded during the first failed attempt.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Glider (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> All this yawning going on is making me super tired.


I just came around, did I miss anything?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> I just came around, did I miss anything?



Not at all…

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## Glider (May 13, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It isn't just the fact they tried it, there can only have been negligible if any preparation. 

I am no military mastermind, but where was the recce to see what forces the Ukrainian Army might have waiting for them. Where were the initial crossings by assault boats and amphibious tanks to hold an initial bridgehead, where was the air cover and AA defences because once found, a pontoon bridge was guaranteed to attract attention like insects to a honey pot, and where was the artillery support.

There is no sign of any of it

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## vikingBerserker (May 13, 2022)

Ukraine is going to end up financing their war selling Russian military scrap

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## RogerdeLluria (May 13, 2022)

On Wednesday somebody wrote that on another forum stating that it's known inside Russia.
_- General Valery Gerasimov was FIRED today Officially. Also Russian official said that he will be locked at home. 
- General which is in Command in Ukraine east front , region Izyum, Luhansk, Donestsk was taken down and he will be Prosecuted for Incompetence and Treason
- In Military there is BIG Conflict going on with Putin circle at the moment._
I dismissed the info as low credibility (after all it is the third time a rumor circulates about Gerasimov being fired or home arrested since the start of the war).
However, today a found this couple pieces of news that sustain some of that info.








Putin 'purges military top brass as General Gerasimov is suspended'


Oleksiy Arestovych, a veteran of Ukraine's military intelligence and one of President Zelensky's inner circle, suggested Wednesday that General Gerasimov had been suspended.




www.dailymail.co.uk












‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine


Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war




www.theguardian.com

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## RogerdeLluria (May 13, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> _- General Valery Gerasimov was FIRED today Officially. Also Russian official said that he will be locked at home. _


Hopefully the Ukrainians via back channels in the Kremlin can persuade Putin to reinstall him

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## RogerdeLluria (May 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> So beautiful !!! Can't stop watching again and again.




By the way, regarding this Russian tank being blown right in front of a Chinese TV. Besides the beautiful turret jump. What actually is of interest is *where it happened.




*

Everything suggests its an action of guerrilla warfare infiltrated well deep into Russian controlled territory. Worth reading whole thread.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 13, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A spanish expression says "No hay dos sin tres" (there is no two without three). The english equivalent expression would be "these things always come in threes".
Apparently they tried a third time

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## SaparotRob (May 13, 2022)

Anyone have any idea how long Russia can keep lobbing Smerch missiles? I’m hoping the vaunted Russian military industrial complex can’t keep up.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Can I say, that China is very appreciative about yours and Graugeist's opinion and conviction towards freedom of passage and access towards controlled/possessed waters?



Nowhere did I say I approved of this action, so I don't know where you get off lobbing this imputation around. I am only pointing out a brute fact.



Jagdflieger said:


> Being the USA, I would be very concerned at the least about Turkey's disregard for the Montreux Convention - especially if hindering NATO war-vessels from traveling to other threatened NATO countries. and being the USA I couldn't give a rats ass about Turkeys - unproven - claim of fearing an imminent war with Russia. Since the Baltic states are far closer to Russia and are willing to support NATO respectively the Ukrainian government and even Finland willing to take the Russian threats by applying to join NATO.



This scenario is unlikely to come to pass, because Turkey is itself a member of NATO.



Jagdflieger said:


> Daily Intel and NATO surveillance has not come up with any indications about Russia preparing for a war with Turkey on or near it's border. (especially since they do not even share a common land border). And in words or in regards to possession of missiles, Putin has made already enough threats towards all those supporting the Ukraine.



Agreed, Putin isn't widening this war with anyone -- his incompetent military has its hands full with Ukraine alone.



Jagdflieger said:


> Erdogan is just another lame dictator and war-criminal helping Putin to solidify Russia's naval advantage in the Black Sea.
> 
> Nuff said, and I will retire now from this specific topic......



I share your distaste for Erdogan, but I doubt he's closed the straits to help Putin. After all, their closure prevents Russia from replacing _Moskva_ with another _Slava_.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> I am no military mastermind, but where was the recce to see what forces the Ukrainian Army might have waiting for them. Where were the initial crossings by assault boats and amphibious tanks to hold an initial bridgehead, where was the air cover and AA defences because once found, a pontoon bridge was guaranteed to attract attention like insects to a honey pot, and where was the artillery support.


You don't suppose there were no nearby Ukranian ground troops and the Ruskys thought they could pull off a sneaky-poo crossing unobserved? The low tech warfare mindset might lack imagination of what a drone-directed long range artillery battery with smart munitions and first shot targeting capacity can do. "Dang! There go the goalposts again! How'd they get this stuff? Effing magic!"

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You don't suppose there were no nearby Ukranian ground troops and the Ruskys thought they could pull off a sneaky-poo crossing unobserved? The low tech warfare mindset might lack imagination of what a drone-directed long range artillery battery with smart munitions and first shot targeting capacity can do. "Dang! There go the goalposts again! How'd they get this stuff? Effing magic!"



It seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at. That very much aligns with Soviet-era doctrine of reinforcing success, whereby if a unit is able to advance more than others, then throw your weight behind it and encircle any pockets of resistance so they wither on the vine. That's all well and good in theory but it's very costly in practice...and it really only works if you have the Soviet-era "human wave" scale of forces at your disposal. Russia doesn't have that size of military...hence why this is hurting them so much.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at. That very much aligns with Soviet-era doctrine of reinforcing success, whereby if a unit is able to advance more than others, then throw your weight behind it and encircle any pockets of resistance so they wither on the vine. That's all well and good in theory but it's very costly in practice...and it really only works if you have the Soviet-era "human wave" scale of forces at your disposal. Russia doesn't have that size of military...hence why this is hurting them so much.


"Hold your fire til you see the whites of their eyes. Then obliterate 'em!"

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## RogerdeLluria (May 13, 2022)

_Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk._






Institute for the Study of War


Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian forces likely control almost all of Rubizhne as of




www.understandingwar.org





Who said Russians cannot adapt?

In *February *their goal was to *take Kiev in 3 days*, install a puppet regime and grab half of Ukraine, including all the south bridging with Transnistria. We all know how that ended.
Since then they have been progressively adapting to their capabilities. An image is better than anything I can write. (map annotations in French I think.)

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at.


Funny, I always heard "recce by fire" meant to spray the jungle 'til Charlie shoots back, then call in air and nape 'em.


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## Zipper730 (May 13, 2022)

at6 said:


> Now the Russians are selling purloined Ukrainian grain to Syria and other "friendly" countries. The Ukrainians should have poisoned it just to kill the thieves off like Tribbles.


The problem is it wouldn't kill the thieves: It'd just kill off a bunch of people who end up buying pasta and bread

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That's all well and good in theory but it's very costly in practice...and it really only works if you have the Soviet-era "human wave" scale of forces at your disposal. Russia doesn't have that size of military...hence why this is hurting them so much.


Maybe they've swallowed too much of their own propaganda and some believe they're dealing with _untermenschen._
"Those ragtag colonials will never stand up to a real army."

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

Russia possibly already taking steps to punish Finland for even considering joining NATO:
_
More now on the suspension of electricity exports from Russia to Finland, which followed rising tensions over Helsinki's announcement of its plan to join Nato.

RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of the Russian company Inter RAO, said non-payment was behind its decision to halt electrity supplies.

The company said they had not received funds since 6 May and described the situation as "exceptional", adding that it is the first time it's happened "in over 20 years of our trading history".

It did not specify whether this was due to the impact of sanctions but added, "we hope that the situation will get improved soon and the electricity trade with Russia could resume".

Meanwhlle, the Finnish grid operator Fingrid said it did not anticpate any problems with supply as a result of the suspension.

It said it would make up the shortfall by generating more power domestically and increasing imports from Sweden._


Love the response from Finland, "Meh...we'll work with our buddies and it'll be ok."

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## GTX (May 13, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

Interesting update on Russian casualties from the BBC. It was published on their Russian language site so most of us will likely have to get Google to translate it:









Аллеи на кладбищах и сотни офицеров: что известно о потерях России в Украине - BBC News Русская служба


На основе открытых источников Русская служба Би-би-си установила, что подтверждены имена уже 2336 российских военных, погибших в ходе боевых действий в Украине. Это почти в два раза превышает последнюю цифру потерь, официально озвученную минобороны России.




www.bbc.com






In case the translation doesn't work well, here's a brief summary of the findings:
_
Since the start of the war, our team has been following and verifying reports of losses among Russian troops fighting in Ukraine by following official announcements, local media reports as well as social media and speaking to the relatives of Russian servicemen.

Up to this moment BBC News Russian has been able to verify the deaths of 2,336 Russian servicemen. We have been able to establish their names, ranks and military units where they served.

This is nearly twice the latest official figure released by the Russian Defence Ministry in March.

It is likely that the real figure of the Russian military in Ukraine is far higher than we have been able to establish. But our data analysis helps to see the trends of what is happening with the Russian army fighting in Ukraine.

Nearly 20% of all confirmed military casualties are officers. This proportion has remained unchanged for the past three months. Experts say that Russian officers may have to risk more on the frontline because of persistent problems with communications.

Over 25% of all losses are paratroopers and marines. These units are often used in reconnaissance and storming operations. However they often don't get enough operational support and evacuation opportunities for the wounded.

Most of the casualties, confirmed by us, came from the least developed and economically deprived regions of Russia. There are only three confirmed deaths of servicemen from Moscow, even though the capital makes up almost 9% of the Russian population.

Ukrainian authorities now say that nearly 27,000 Russian soldiers have been killed._

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## Jagdflieger (May 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> _Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk._
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It comes down to simple mathematics. The Russian and DNLR forces deployed in occupied Ukrainian territory are far to small as to fully control the occupied areas and hold&attack at an almost 1000km contested front-line from Kharkiv down to Kherson. Not even mentioning the remaining 600 km of "peaceful" front-line up north from Kharkiv to the Belarus border.

The same goes for the Ukraine - which can choose only a very limited scope of counterattack areas - since they also do not have the forces to hold and attack on the present front-lines without weakening their defense positions at any other point along the contested front-line. And additionally having to secure another 500-600km along the Belarusian border.

Since Mid-End of April the Russians have managed up today to shorten the contested front-line by approx. 150km. and gaining approx. 2000km2. Whilst at the same time making defense for the remaining contested front-line easier for the Ukrainians, but who in turn however have no added "liberated" areas of significance to counterbalance these lost 2000km2. 

So on the pure military part it all comes down to who has the better intel/recon along the front-line, in order to take hold of sparse reserves to exploit the enemies weak spots. Whilst the Ukraine reports the gain of approx. 150-200km2 around Kharkiv in the past 1 week, Russia has gained approx. 200-250km2 in the eastern area within the same time period.

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## Dimlee (May 13, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I had just checked two sites regarding the Dutch inquiry towards MH17 - and there is no statement as to Russian military having operated that SAM.
> If you have a source that states so please kindly let me know.


It can be found in the reports of JTI and of the prosecution.
Probably, the best video channel devoted to MH17 (in Russian):


https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4qnd1VXAyk02gG34f_pGyw/about


JTI's press conference of 2018 where investigators spoke about the origins of that Buk M1.

A lot of information on the site of prosecution:








MH17 plane crash







www.prosecutionservice.nl





The Russian crew of SAM was not included in the list of suspects and their names were not announced yet officially. But there was enough evidence (also obtained indirectly from the suspects) to confirm that Buk M1 was operated by Russian military personnel and not by separatists or "volunteers".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> It can be found in the reports of JTI and of the prosecution.
> Probably, the best video channel devoted to MH17 (in Russian):
> 
> 
> ...




Dutch source?

Come on, you know that won’t fly. It was not reported by a source under Uncle Putler’s control. Besides, as football has shown us in those legendary games against Germany, the Dutch cannot be trusted.

Turning my sarcasm controls off now…

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## Dimlee (May 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Maybe they've swallowed too much of their own propaganda and some believe they're dealing with _untermenschen._
> "Those ragtag colonials will never stand up to a real army."


Actually, that is what can be read on the numerous Russian channels/forums today. (I began to monitor them after cruiser Moskva's sinking). According to Russian military experts and their fanbase, the reasons for the "difficulties" are:
1. Several stupid generals/admirals that just happened to be in the key positions. Some battalion commanders and ship captains were stupid as well. But the Russian army as a whole is very smart and heroic.
2. Opposition, "national traitors", plutocrats oligarchs - they undermine the mighty Russian Army from within. Putin was too kind to all that vermin.
3. NATO weaponry, recon, advisors, money.
4. NATO troops. Yes, they are there. Nobody saw them, but they are there of course because Ukrainians can not fight.
5. Clever strategy (no, I'm not kidding). The secret plan was to start light, to wear out Ukrainians, get NATO involved and deliver the final blow to NATO.
6. Because the Russian Army is civilised and does its best to minimise civilian casualties. Otherwise, it would "steamroll Ukraine several times already", as was recently announced by a Russian diplomat.

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## WARSPITER (May 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Hold your fire til you see the whites of their eyes. Then obliterate 'em!"


"But Sir, by the time we can see the whites of their eyes, they will be able to see the whites of our eyes".
(With apologies to an old edition of Mad magazine for that one).

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> "But Sir, by the time we can see the whites of their eyes, they will be able to see the whites of our eyes".
> (With apologies to an old edition of Mad magazine for that one).



I used to run into Sergio Aragones while grocery shopping in Ventura. Cool guy. I framed a couple of his original cartoons for him when I managed the framing shop.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Erdogan says Turkey does not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that his country does not support plans by Finland and Sweden to join NATO, claiming they are home to "terrorist organizations."




www.yahoo.com

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## Jagdflieger (May 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> It can be found in the reports of JTI and of the prosecution.
> Probably, the best video channel devoted to MH17 (in Russian):
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the links.
The last link "prosecutionerservice.nl was one of the links I had also checked.
However there is no conclusive proven evidence that the system was manned by Russian military personal. That the system originated from a Russian military unit was known and
doesn't constitute a proof as to who manned it.
The prosecution even stated in it's final address: _The defendants were not regular military personnel and it is not known as to who pressed the button._

What I can't find anywhere in those prosecutor files, is as for the question; were these 4 defendants trained/qualified to operate the Buk M1 system?

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Actually, that is what can be read on the numerous Russian channels/forums today. (I began to monitor them after cruiser Moskva's sinking). According to Russian military experts and their fanbase, the reasons for the "difficulties" are:
> 1. Several stupid generals/admirals that just happened to be in the key positions. Some battalion commanders and ship captains were stupid as well. But the Russian army as a whole is very smart and heroic.
> 2. Opposition, "national traitors", plutocrats oligarchs - they undermine the mighty Russian Army from within. Putin was too kind to all that vermin.
> 3. NATO weaponry, recon, advisors, money.
> ...



Where's that "crazy/deluded/lock me in a padded cell" emoji when I need it? (BTW, Dimlee, that emoji is directed at the idiots that believe this crap, not at you...I hope you know I trust and value your opinion and insights).

I really love #1. Yes, let's blame the stupid generals/admirals. But we can't blame the man who appointed them. Presumably, these muppets don't believe that Putin has a hand in the selection and appointment of every star-ranking officer in the Russian military?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Erdogan says Turkey does not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO
> 
> 
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that his country does not support plans by Finland and Sweden to join NATO, claiming they are home to "terrorist organizations."
> ...



I just read that. He's butthurt that they're accepting Kurdish refugees, apparently.

As I noted above, I've got a very dim opinion of Erdogan. To head off what could be a rant, I'll just say that he's a shitbag.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I just read that. He's butthurt that they're accepting Kurdish refugees, apparently.
> 
> As I noted above, I've got a very dim opinion of Erdogan. To head off what could be a rant, I'll just say that he's a shitbag.



I agree.

I even blame Erdogan for the declining quality of Döner Kebabs in Germany. I think the Vaterland should push for their removal from NATO if they don’t do something about it.

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

We said, many pages ago, that Georgia should go on the offensive to reclaim South Ossetia. Well, their time may be running out:
_
The leader of breakaway region South Ossetia has announced a referendum on whether to become a part of Russia.

A statement from the office of Anatoly Bibilov said it was his people's "historic aspiration" to come together with Russia, and the vote would take place on 17 July.

Moscow recognises the region as independent, after a brief war between Russia and Georgia in 2008, and has provided financial support, Russian citizenship for its citizens and sited military bases there.

Georgia maintains that South Ossetia is an occupied territory and previously said that a referendum on joining Russia would be unacceptable._


It will be interesting to see how Georgia responds if, as I expect, the referendum will go ahead and the books will be cooked to a crisp.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree.
> 
> I even blame Erdogan for the declining quality of Döner Kebabs in Germany. I think the Vaterland should push for their removal from NATO if they don’t do something about it.



Having lived for four years in Iran, my only question is _how the hell can you screw up a kebab?_

**************

Bock to topic:

_Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of 10,500 troops to replace ones who have been previously deployed to Europe. 

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters that the troops will be deployed “in the coming months,” adding that the U.S.’s force posture in Europe will remain unchanged.

“These are not permanent moves,” Kirby said. “These moves are designed to respond to the current security environment.

“Moreover, these forces are not going to fight in Ukraine, they are going to support the robust defense of NATO allies,” he added.

The U.S. in February and March deployed and repositioned thousands of troops to bolster allies in Europe amid Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine.

Most recently, Austin deployed additional aviation capabilities to the region, which totaled approximately 200 personnel. Those deployments brought the total number of U.S. personnel in Europe to 100,000.

Kirby said that Friday’s deployments will leave that number unchanged, as the deployments are “are one-for-one-unit replacements.”

About 500 soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Ky., will replace soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division currently in Europe, Kirby said.

The Second Infantry Brigade Combat Team 101st Airborne Division will also deploy about 4,200 soldiers from Fort Campbell to replace troops from the Third Infantry Brigade Combat Team of 82nd Airborne Division in Poland.

The third Armored Brigade Combat Team First Cavalry Division from Fort Hood, Texas, will deploy another 4,200 soldiers to replace the First Armored Brigade, Third Infantry Division in Germany.

Additionally, the first Armored Division Combat Aviation Brigade of approximately 1,800 service members from Fort Bliss, Texas, will replace the First Air Cavalry Brigade supporting Operation Atlantic Resolve, which has been a rotational deployment for the Army since 2014. 

The units being replaced will return to the U.S. after an “appropriate” turnover of responsibilities, which will occur in the coming weeks and into the summer,” Kirby said._



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3487714-pentagon-chief-orders-10500-troops-to-replaces-forces-in-europe/



Good to see that we're keeping our eyes on the ball.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Having lived for four years in Iran, my only question is _how the hell can you screw up a kebab?_
> 
> **************





Its all in the bread, spices, and sauce my friend. The prices are going up, and the quality is declining.

There is a really good one next to my parents house, but unfortunately I have to fight the school kids every day to get one.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Its all in the bread, spices, and sauce my friend. The prices are going up, and the quality is declining.
> 
> There is a really good one next my parents house, but unfortunately I have to fight the school kids every day to get one.



I grill my own at home (usually beef, sometimes lamb when I can find a good deal), and serve with saffron rice. There's a couple of good places in Austin for this fare, but I hate driving into the city, absolutely hate it.


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## Glider (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Erdogan says Turkey does not support Finland and Sweden joining NATO
> 
> 
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that his country does not support plans by Finland and Sweden to join NATO, claiming they are home to "terrorist organizations."
> ...


I was waiting for someone in NATO to be difficult. It's too good an opportunity to settle old scores

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I grill my own at home (usually beef, sometimes lamb when I can find a good deal), and serve with saffron rice. There's a couple of good places in Austin for this fare, but I hate driving into the city, absolutely hate it.



I’m specifically talking about the German-Turkish version that was first created in Berlin. It is a popular street food in Germany served in pita type bread with meat, sauces, and vegetables. Every street corner in Germany has one. Even the smallest village will have a church, a pub, and Döner Kebab store. 







Although its fun to blame Ergdogan for everything, we should probably get back on topic…

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m specifically talking about the German-Turkish version that was first created in Berlin. It is a popular street food in Germany served in pita type bread with meat, sauces, and vegetables. Every street corner in Germany has one. Even the smallest village will have a church, a pub, and Döner Kebab store.
> 
> View attachment 668359
> 
> ...



Right, there's a food thread for this stuff. That sure looks good, though it ain't the way I've eaten them before.


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## vikingBerserker (May 13, 2022)

I'd never seen one served with bread, very interesting.
------------------------

So if Turkey objects, does it scuttle Sweden and Finland from joining?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I'd never seen one served with bread, very interesting.
> ------------------------
> 
> So if Turkey objects, does it scuttle Sweden and Finland from joining?



Apparently Article 10 requires unanimous assent by current members, according to the Great Wiki. What I've read in the news indicates that the US amongst others is/will be applying pressure to Turkey on this matter.

I personally would trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The latter two are much more aligned politically with NATO than Turkey under Erdogan. Sweden has a great indigenous military-industrial plant, too.

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## buffnut453 (May 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Apparently Article 10 requires unanimous assent by current members, according to the Great Wiki. What I've read in the news indicates that the US amongst others is/will be applying pressure to Turkey on this matter.
> 
> I personally would trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The latter two are much more aligned politically with NATO than Turkey under Erdogan. Sweden has a great indigenous military-industrial plant, too.



Yebbut I wouldn't want to be throwing Erdogan further into Putin's orbit right now. Kicking Turkey out of NATO could make it really hard for the US and Western European Allies to get ANYTHING into the Black Sea....ever.

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## Admiral Beez (May 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yebbut I wouldn't want to be throwing Erdogan further into Putin's orbit right now. Kicking Turkey out of NATO could make it really hard for the US and Western European Allies to get ANYTHING into the Black Sea....ever.


If the West had any consideration of the wider implications of their decisions they’d not have abandoned Constantinople.






Why wasn't there a Crusade to save Constantinople ?


1453. Why didn't the Pope call for a crusade to save Constantinople ? I'm not sure if he did. If he did so, why wasn't it 'answered' ?




historum.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yebbut I wouldn't want to be throwing Erdogan further into Putin's orbit right now. Kicking Turkey out of NATO could make it really hard for the US and Western European Allies to get ANYTHING into the Black Sea....ever.



True enough, but I question the value of fighting over the Black Sea given its constriction. Put a stopper at the bottle and let Russian or Turkish assets molder there, and then control the sea with airpower based in continental Europe.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> "But Sir, by the time we can see the whites of their eyes, they will be able to see the whites of our eyes".


Three quick, massive volleys will close their eyes, _muy pronto. _

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## Greg Boeser (May 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> True enough, but I question the value of fighting over the Black Sea given its constriction. Put a stopper at the bottle and let Russian or Turkish assets molder there, and then control the sea with airpower based in continental Europe.


And we could sail the Rhine-Danube Canal.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Three quick, massive volleys will close their eyes, _muy pronto. _



Whites are harder to see behind breastworks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the West had any consideration of the wider implications of their decisions they’d not have abandoned Constantinople.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, gosh, who can't look 600 years into the future? What a dummy!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

_Congress must pass a proposed $40 billion Ukraine supplemental aid package by Thursday to avoid an interruption of U.S. weapons shipments to the embattled country, the Pentagon’s top spokesperson said Friday. 

“May 19 is the day we really — without additional authorities — we begin to not have the ability to send new stuff in,” press secretary John Kirby told reporters. “It’ll start impacting our ability to provide aid uninterrupted.” 

Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, along with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, sent a letter to House and Senate leadership asking for the money by the end of next week “if we are to continue are security assistance at the current pace.” 

And the Pentagon on Monday said the $3.5 billion in drawdown authority — passed in March as part of the $1.5 trillion government funding bill — will be exhausted later this month. 

About $100 million is still left from that pot of money and has not yet been allocated, Kirby said. 

The House on Tuesday passed the supplemental package for Ukraine, but the Senate was unable to do so after Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blocked the bill’s passage over demands that there be more oversight on how the money will be spent. 

Kirby said the Pentagon urges the Senate “to act as quickly as possible so we don’t get to the end of May and not have any additional authorities to draw back, to draw upon.” _



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3487989-pentagon-congress-must-pass-next-ukraine-aid-by-thursday-to-avoid-interruptions/



Isolationism didn't work in the 40s either, ya dimbulb.

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## SaparotRob (May 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Three quick, massive volleys will close their eyes, _muy pronto. _


Give 'em a whiff of grape!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 13, 2022)

Russian lawmaker warns Poland is next in line for 'denazification after Ukraine'


A Russian lawmaker is warning Friday that recent comments from Poland’s leaders are encouraging Moscow to “put it in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine.”




www.yahoo.com

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## Greg Boeser (May 13, 2022)

To quote Greta Thunberg:
"Blah! Blah! Blah! Blah! Blah!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russian lawmaker warns Poland is next in line for 'denazification after Ukraine'
> 
> 
> A Russian lawmaker is warning Friday that recent comments from Poland’s leaders are encouraging Moscow to “put it in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine.”
> ...



Lunch is already giving them indigestion, and they're planning for dinner?

Riiiiiiiight.

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## Admiral Beez (May 13, 2022)

This is exactly what I feared…









US defence chief urges Ukraine ceasefire in call with Russian counterpart – as it happened


Lloyd Austin urges immediate ceasefire and emphasises ‘the importance of maintaining lines of communication’ – follow the latest news




www.theguardian.com





The US government is calling for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. If that happens Ukraine will never regain its lost territory in any negotiation. The US government’s position should instead be to demand Russia withdraw from all Ukranian territory and that until they do the US will continue its active support.

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## hawkeye2an (May 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> It isn't just the fact they tried it, there can only have been negligible if any preparation.
> 
> I am no military mastermind, but where was the recce to see what forces the Ukrainian Army might have waiting for them. Where were the initial crossings by assault boats and amphibious tanks to hold an initial bridgehead, where was the air cover and AA defences because once found, a pontoon bridge was guaranteed to attract attention like insects to a honey pot, and where was the artillery support.
> 
> There is no sign of any of it


Seems to just be business as usual for the Russians. Do they just not have a War College?

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## XBe02Drvr (May 13, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Seems to just be business as usual for the Russians. Do they just not have a War College?


"We pay our generals to lead troops, not bury themselves in academia."

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 13, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Seems to just be business as usual for the Russians. Do they just not have a War College?



Or at least a junior high school?

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## at6 (May 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m specifically talking about the German-Turkish version that was first created in Berlin. It is a popular street food in Germany served in pita type bread with meat, sauces, and vegetables. Every street corner in Germany has one. Even the smallest village will have a church, a pub, and Döner Kebab store.
> 
> View attachment 668359
> 
> ...


Hate to say it but that looks too much like "road kill".

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## at6 (May 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is exactly what I feared…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


LLoyd Austin is a total idiot. Dumb ass wants to give the Ukraine away to Putin because he hasn't got the brains that God gave a p!ss ant. Demand that Russia leaves the Ukraine instead of kissing Moscow butt.

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## Glider (May 14, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "We pay our generals to lead troops, not bury themselves in academia."


Because it significantly reduces the cost of our Pension Scheme

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2022)

at6 said:


> Hate to say it but that looks too much like "road kill".



Hate to say it but it looks like you are lacking taste…

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## wlewisiii (May 14, 2022)

I was wishing the other day that the French Tacos had been around when I was last stationed in Europe. Looks nummy.

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## wlewisiii (May 14, 2022)

But back on topic...

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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> But back on topic...



Can't let 'em escape with top secret contraband aboard now, can we?

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## GrauGeist (May 14, 2022)

at6 said:


> Hate to say it but that looks too much like "road kill".





at6 said:


> Hate to say it but that looks too much like "road kill".


Might look like roadkill, but it's pretty good.
In Bulgaria, they have similar foods and you'd be surprised how good it is.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 14, 2022)

Glider said:


> Because it significantly reduces the cost of our Pension Scheme


Purges of the upper ranks do even better. A single dose of 7.65 medicine solves the problem.

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## wlewisiii (May 14, 2022)



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## ThomasP (May 14, 2022)

Hey at6,

re "LLoyd Austin is a total idiot. Dumb ass wants to give the Ukraine away to Putin because he hasn't got the brains that God gave a p!ss ant. . . "

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, a brief summary of his qualifications:

Austin graduated from the United States Military Academy with a Bachelor of Science degree and a commission in the Infantry. He is a graduate of the Infantry Officer Basic and Advanced courses, the Army Command and General Staff College, and the Army War College.

His 41-year career in the Army included command at the corps, division, battalion, and brigade levels. Austin was awarded the Silver Star for his leadership of the Army's 3rd Infantry Division during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Seven years later, he would assume the duties of Commanding General of United States Forces – Iraq, overseeing all combat operations in the country.

After a tour as the Army's Vice Chief of Staff, Austin concluded his uniformed service as the Commander of US Central Command, responsible for all military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. In this assignment, he led US and coalition efforts to battle ISIS in Iraq and Syria. He retired from the Army in April 2016.

Austin was sworn in as the Secretary of Defense on 22 January 2021. Austin is the principal assistant to the President in all matters relating to the Department of Defense and serves on the National Security Council.

(He also holds a Master of Arts degree in counselor education from Auburn University, and a Master of Business Management from Webster University.)

The above does not mean that he can not make mistakes, but . . .

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## J_P_C (May 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> But back on topic...



This whatever left from APU - not washing machine. Please be little bit more realistic.....


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## GrauGeist (May 14, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Those helmets look like WWII relics, too - why haven't they replaced them with ballistic helmets already?


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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the West had any consideration of the wider implications of their decisions they’d not have abandoned Constantinople.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Because in 1452 the Pope didn't have an army unlike 50 years later under Cesare Borgia. The Pope however did appeal towards Christianity for others to aid Constantinople.
However they were too occupied fighting each other. Genoa (mightiest naval power in the Med) and Venice were too much occupied finding out if trade might improve with the Ottomans upon them maybe eliminating their main trading rival Constantinople. Only Venice (when it was too late) send a fleet and troops.

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## ThomasP (May 14, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is exactly what I feared…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe because there is a smart guy in the US government who realizes that the majority of people in any country will choose economic survival over who or what system might rule them. The Ukrainian Government has done a great job (outstanding) in regards to propaganda, but can't show for any significant military or economic improvement of the situation in the last 1 1/2 month. 9 million displaced people within the Ukraine (means no job and income to buy anything but food. A further 6 million preparing to settle permanently in other countries. 5 million remaining in Russian "liberated" areas.
As such the Ukraine has presently lost 25% of its population!! another 20% with a very high probability of no jobs at all, of the remaining 55% approx. half have no job respectively no income. So how long will the Ukrainian peoples moral stay "high"? in the worst case there will be a civil uprising and Putin gets all of Ukraine.

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## Snautzer01 (May 14, 2022)

EU, USA will bankroll the rebuild of cities and more. Far more. If anything the one thing one can be sure of of is that Ukraine will be booming of a different kind once this is over. Marshall plan 2.0.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> EU, USA will bankroll the rebuild of cities and more. Far more. If anything the one thing one can be sure of of is that Ukraine will be booming of a different kind once this is over. Marshall plan 2.0.


One can only "if this Marshall plan 2.0" will happen, implement such a trillion $ investment into a peaceful and stable running country.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe because there is a smart guy in the US government who realizes that the majority of people in any country will choose economic survival over who or what system might rule them. The Ukrainian Government has done a great job (outstanding) in regards to propaganda, but can't show for any significant military or economic improvement of the situation in the last 1 1/2 month. 9 million displaced people within the Ukraine (means no job and income to buy anything but food. A further 6 million preparing to settle permanently in other countries. 5 million remaining in Russian "liberated" areas.
> As such the Ukraine has presently lost 25% of its population!! another 20% with a very high probability of no jobs at all, of the remaining 55% approx. half have no job respectively no income. So how long will the Ukrainian peoples moral stay "high"? in the worst case there will be a civil uprising and Putin gets all of Ukraine.


Ukrainians are fighting for their survival. Russians fight for Putin's dream empire. Ukraine momentum is on the rise, weapons keep flowing and some people claim that Ukraine is going for a one million citizen military mobilization, that could be available in the summer. On the other hand Russian momentum keeps slowing down, they keep losing equipment that cannot replace (provided sanctions are enforced). Neither can they replace men without declaring war and general mobilization. If the west doesn't end up betraying Ukraine, and stays firm with sanctions and keeps sending military (as well as humanitarian) help, the uprising (be it civil or military) may happen in Russia. We all have heard of unrest between the russian military, and I bet that purgues are not helping..

Giving territory (other than Crimea, that probably is a lost cause) to apaise Putin now is a recipe for next war in 3-4 years.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> ....On the other hand Russian momentum keeps slowing down,


maybe no problem for Putin? 3m a day becomes a km a year - so as to say.


RogerdeLluria said:


> they keep losing equipment that cannot replace (provided sanctions are enforced).....


who says "aside from propaganda or misinformation" that Russia needs to replace those lost e.g. T-60/T-72, T-80's or some 1970's BMP's in corresponding numbers? or at all.


RogerdeLluria said:


> Neither can they replace men without declaring war and general mobilization.


neither can the Ukraine - but they already did that, Russia hasn't.


RogerdeLluria said:


> If the west doesn't end up betraying Ukraine, and stays firm with sanctions and keeps sending military (as well as humanitarian) help


Could you name me a single country in the last 50 years - that wasn't sooner or later abandoned by the western powers? due to political and $ reasons (mostly occurring after elections) Maybe e.g. a Trump or alike will have a sensational comeback in 2-3 years? AFAIK it was all republicans who voted against that 40billion$ package.


RogerdeLluria said:


> , the uprising (be it civil or military) may happen in Russia. We all have heard of unrest between the russian military, and I bet that purgues are not helping..


maybe - but that would be pure speculation. My previous mentioned western deeds are unfortunatley facts.


RogerdeLluria said:


> Giving territory (other than Crimea, that probably is a lost cause) to apaise Putin now is a recipe for next war in 3-4 years.


IMO, it is the only practical thing to do - certainly at present nothing great - but in the long run (if not abandoned again) certainly far more profitable for the West.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 14, 2022)

I don't share your short term solution. It's just asking for bigger problems in the near future. The following sumarizes very well my POW

Lloyd Austin is an IDIOT








US defence chief urges Ukraine ceasefire in call with Russian counterpart – as it happened


Lloyd Austin urges immediate ceasefire and emphasises ‘the importance of maintaining lines of communication’ – follow the latest news




www.theguardian.com





Olaf Scholz is an IDIOT








Germany's Scholz pushes for Ukraine ceasefire in call with Putin


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine as soon as possible during a telephone call on Friday, a government spokesperson said on Friday.




www.reuters.com





Macron is an IDIOT TOTAL RETARD








Zelensky says Macron urged him to yield territory in bid to end Ukraine war


French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Ukraine to offer territorial concessions to Russia in a bid to end the fighting, according to the embattled Ukrainian leader, even as invading Russian forces struggle to achieve their objectives.




www.washingtonexaminer.com





A cease fire now only benefits Russia. We are surrounded by idiots in the west.

*Thanks god we still have Kaja Kallas. We need more leaders like her.*










Europe’s new Iron Lady: Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas


The Baltic leader has become the EU’s strongest advocate for an uncompromising response to Russia.




www.newstatesman.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Might look like roadkill, but it's pretty good.
> In Bulgaria, they have similar foods and you'd be surprised how good it is.



I don’t see how it looks like road kill. Its pita type bread filled with flavor packed shaved gyro type meat, feta cheese, sauce, tomatoes, lettuce, onions, cabbage, etc.

Some people are either just closed minded, don’t like, or are afraid of what they don’t know. These are the people that likely think Olive Garden is real Italian and fine dining. 

Based on his recent posting track record, I’m not surprised. I bet if a restaurant does not call french fries freedom fries he boycotts it. 

To each their own though. 

And we are hugely off-topic now. I will say no further.

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I don't share your short term solution. It's just asking for bigger problems in the near future. The following sumarizes very well my POW
> 
> Lloyd Austin is an IDIOT
> 
> ...



The taxpayers of the West will only support and finally tolerate spending billion of their dollars, pounds, euros, et al on Ukraine for so long, especially if domestic wealth, jobs, etc. fall. If Zelenskyy believes the West’s support and attention is endless, he’s in for a surprise. If this is still on in 2024 the next POTUS may well campaign on disentanglement.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey at6,
> 
> re "LLoyd Austin is a total idiot. Dumb ass wants to give the Ukraine away to Putin because he hasn't got the brains that God gave a p!ss ant. . . "
> 
> ...



None of that matters. He could be the most qualified man in the world. Its about who appointed him…

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## Denniss (May 14, 2022)

with the recent withdrawal from Kharkov Putler seems to be throwing all his still existing forces into Donbas and southern Ukraine to achieve something.
Lets hope Putlers forces fail to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas. Plus you'll never know what Lukashenko will do or the russian forces in the Moldovia breakaway region.
But russia may need some more forces in Georgia as tension is skyrocketing there

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> These are the people that likely think Olive Garden is real Italian and fine dining.


What, my Swiss Chalet isn’t Swiss?


Denniss said:


> Plus you'll never know what Lukashenko will do or the russian forces in the Moldovia breakaway region.


Lukashenko will have a rebellion on his hands if he acts now… and this time there‘s little help putting down the mob from Putin.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A cease fire now only benefits Russia. *We* are surrounded by idiots in the west.


I won't give an opinion on that matter since it has no impact. But *WE* are not the ones to decide on this matter at anyway

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## Greg Boeser (May 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey at6,
> 
> re "LLoyd Austin is a total idiot. Dumb ass wants to give the Ukraine away to Putin because he hasn't got the brains that God gave a p!ss ant. . . "
> 
> ...


And remember, he is carrying out the wishes of the president.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 14, 2022)

Back to the real fighting








Armed Forces of Ukraine launch counteroffensive in Izium direction - Synehubov


The Izium direction remains the hottest point in Kharkiv region, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a counteroffensive there, head of the regional military administration Oleh Synehubov said.




interfax.com.ua

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## wlewisiii (May 14, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> And remember, he is carrying out the wishes of the president.


Who may or may not be doing what you think they're trying to do? When you have multiparty negotiations, you don't always start off with what you want to achive...


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## Greg Boeser (May 14, 2022)

But I have to agree with Jags. When was the last time we _didn't_ toss our friends under the bus?

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## SaparotRob (May 14, 2022)

Is there a nice legal way to use frozen Russian assets to pay war reparations?


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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Plus you'll never know what Lukashenko will do or the russian forces in the Moldovia breakaway region.


The Russian forces presently in Transnistria are in no position (numbers) to do anything that might hurt the Ukraine - on the contra, the Ukraine could actually "liberate" Transnistria.


Denniss said:


> But russia may need some more forces in Georgia as tension is skyrocketing there


Don't get your hopes up, Georgia is surrounded by countries and own provinces with breakaway issues who will gladly gobble it up.

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## WARSPITER (May 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is there a nice legal way to use frozen Russian assets to pay war reparations?


Yes. Claim the money is a non binary separatist movement which no longer wishes to be part of the oligarchical autocratic structure
and therefore it can then be 'separated' under currency rights laws which are yet to be enacted but will be once the money is in safe hands
(the money is to be counted in US dollars so is obviously English speaking - money talks remember - rather than Russian speaking so has a valid
right to be separatist).

Job done.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> AFAIK it was all republicans who voted against that 40billion$ package.


 It passed 386-57. That's over 80% pro-assistance, and plenty of Republican support. Support for Ukraine in American is very bipartisan.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It passed 386-57. That's over 80% pro-assistance, and plenty of Republican support. Support for Ukraine in American is very bipartisan.


yes correct - I was just pointing out IIRC that those 57 voting against the package were all republicans. (which indicates a certain tendency)

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> yes correct - I was just pointing out IIRC that those 57 voting against the package were all republicans. (which indicates a certain tendency)



They are. I would explain in detail their stance but that would go outside the rules regarding politics here. Suffice it to say that it's more about domestic optics than understanding international relations.

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## special ed (May 14, 2022)

They wanted to know how and where the money was spent. A normal question for me as a taxpayer. We, the US, have a tendency to throw money to a person or group who gets rich and does nothing about the problem for which the money was spent.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

_
The package includes $6 billion for security assistance, including training, equipment, weapons and support; $8.7 billion to replenish stocks of U.S. equipment sent to Ukraine, and $3.9 billion for European Command operations.

In addition, the legislation authorizes a further $11 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the president to authorize the transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency. Biden had asked for $5 billion.

It also authorizes $4 billion in Foreign Military Financing to provide support for Ukraine and other countries affected by the crisis.

The United States has rushed more than $3.5 billion worth of armaments to Ukraine since Russia invaded, including howitzers, anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, ammunition and recently-disclosed "Ghost" drones.

The new aid package also includes humanitarian assistance - $5 billion to address food insecurity globally due to the conflict and nearly $9 billion for an economic support fund for Ukraine.

It provides hundreds of millions of dollars to help refugees and fund efforts to seize the assets of oligarchs linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government has called the invasion of Ukraine a "special military operation."_









U.S. House passes $40 bln bill to bolster Ukraine against Russian invasion


The U.S. House of Representatives approved more than $40 billion more aid for Ukraine on Tuesday, as Congress races to keep military aid flowing and boost the government in Kyiv as it grapples with the Russian invasion.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

Regarding Turkey objecting to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO:

_
ISTANBUL, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.

"We are not closing the door. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey," Ibrahim Kalin, who is also the president's top foreign policy advisor, told Reuters in an interview in Istanbul.

Erdogan surprised NATO members and the two Nordic countries seeking membership by saying on Friday it was not possible for Turkey to support enlarging the alliance because Finland and Sweden were "home to many terrorist organisations".

[...]

Kalin said the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union - was fund-raising and recruiting in Europe and its presence is "strong and open and acknowledged" in Sweden in particular.

"What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said._









Exclusive: Turkey 'not closing door' to Sweden, Finland NATO entry


Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.




www.reuters.com

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## Snautzer01 (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> One can only "if this Marshall plan 2.0" will happen, implement such a trillion $ investment into a peaceful and stable running country.


Yes and true. But i do think momentum for this, is in Ukraines benefit. Sure, more then a few euros will get into wrong hands but that is not more then in Europa or the Usa. Besides that, i do have faith in a people that defend themself in a grinding war. Changes will not be unthinkable, even by passing the local maffia is in order. Ukraine is backed for the rebuild. It will be a rich nation. For all of them

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## Glider (May 14, 2022)

An interesting piece from the BBC.
They have verified the deaths of approx. 2,600 Russian officers and men. What I find interesting is that only three of them are from Moscow. Putin is playing very clever game to keep any criticism away from the public eye.

_Up to this moment BBC News Russian has been able to verify the deaths of 2,336 Russian servicemen. We have been able to establish their names, ranks and military units where they served.

This is nearly twice the latest official figure released by the Russian Defence Ministry in March.

It is likely that the real figure of the Russian military in Ukraine is far higher than we have been able to establish. But our data analysis helps to see the trends of what is happening with the Russian army fighting in Ukraine.

Nearly 20% of all confirmed military casualties are officers. This proportion has remained unchanged for the past three months. Experts say that Russian officers may have to risk more on the frontline because of persistent problems with communications.

Over 25% of all losses are paratroopers and marines. These units are often used in reconnaissance and storming operations. However they often don't get enough operational support and evacuation opportunities for the wounded.

Most of the casualties, confirmed by us, came from the least developed and economically deprived regions of Russia. There are only three confirmed deaths of servicemen from Moscow, even though the capital makes up almost 9% of the Russian population.

Ukrainian authorities now say that nearly 27,000 Russian soldiers have been killed._

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

_
KYIV/BEZRUKY, Ukraine, May 14 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive near the Russian-held town of Izium in eastern Ukraine, a regional governor said on Saturday, in what could prove a serious setback for Moscow's plans to capture the entire Donbas region.

Russian forces have focused much of their firepower on the Donbas in a "second phase" of their invasion that was announced on April 19, after they failed to reach the capital Kyiv from the north in the early weeks of the war.


But Ukraine has been retaking territory in its northeast, driving the Russians away from the second-largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Keeping up pressure on Izium and Russian supply lines will make it harder for Moscow to encircle battle-hardened Ukrainian troops on the eastern front in the Donbas._









Ukraine wages counteroffensive against Russian forces in east


Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive near the Russian-held town of Izium in eastern Ukraine, a regional governor said on Saturday, in what could prove a serious setback for Moscow's plans to capture the entire Donbas region.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is exactly what I feared…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


One has to start somewhere. A ceasefire is a start - it is not the finish. The alternatives are increasing the support for Ukraine which while maybe desirable will also risk escalating things. I appreciate the passion involved here but when one is in the actual 'hot seat' of making policy decisions the perspectives are somewhat different - one has to think with one's brains rather than 'balls' and sometimes one is left choosing between a bunch of bad solutions.

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## GTX (May 14, 2022)

at6 said:


> LLoyd Austin is a total idiot. Dumb ass wants to give the Ukraine away to Putin because he hasn't got the brains that God gave a p!ss ant. Demand that Russia leaves the Ukraine instead of kissing Moscow butt.


Well, maybe if the previous regime in Washington hadn't been so busy kowtowing to Moscow and looking for political favours from Ukraine this could have been avoided.

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## Zipper730 (May 14, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Maybe they've swallowed too much of their own propaganda and some believe they're dealing with _untermenschen._
> "Those ragtag colonials will never stand up to a real army."


That's probably it: The problem with propaganda like that is that the people who circulated it sometimes end up believing their own nonsense.



DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I even blame Erdogan for the declining quality of Döner Kebabs in Germany.


I've never had a Döner Kebab, though I was told it was an ancestor to the Gyro, which means it's gotta be good. Do they use a yogurt garlic sauce like Tzatziki on it?

There was this Turkish sauce called Cacik that tasted just like Tzatziki at this restaurant (unfortunately it went under). Since I'm of Greek descent, I NEVER EVER used a credit card and did everything in cash LOL

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> That's probably it: The problem with propaganda like that is that the people who circulated it sometimes end up believing their own nonsense.
> 
> 
> I've never had a Döner Kebab, though I was told it was an ancestor to the Gyro, which means it's gotta be good. Do they use a yogurt garlic sauce like Tzatziki on it?
> ...



100 times better than a gyro…

It uses a similar sauce, but still quite different.

And seriously, I’m going to move all this to the food thread.

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## Zipper730 (May 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 100 times better than a gyro…


Wow


> It uses a similar sauce, but still quite different.


Is it like garlic, cucumber, with some dill?


> And seriously, I’m going to move all this to the food thread.


Agreed!


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## Greg Boeser (May 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Well, maybe if the previous regime in Washington hadn't been so busy kowtowing to Moscow and looking for political favours from Ukraine this could have been avoided.


Or maybe if the current regime didn't have a track record of looking the other way when Putin made his last land grab. And enriching themselves at Ukraine's expense.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Or maybe if the current regime didn't have a track record of looking the other way when Putin made his last land grab. And enriching themselves at Ukraine's expense.



When was Putin's last land grab?


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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Well, maybe if the previous regime in Washington hadn't been so busy kowtowing to Moscow and looking for political favours from Ukraine this could have been avoided.


POTUS44 did nothing to help Ukraine when Russia forcibly took Crimea. The last administration to stand up to Moscow was POTUS40. After that the Administration in Washington has been too distracted by the WoD, WoT, ops to secure Arab oil, and domestic culture wars to care about Moscow’s foreign ops.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Yes and true. But i do think momentum for this, is in Ukraines benefit. Sure, more then a few euros will get into wrong hands but that is not more then in Europa or the Usa. Besides that, i do have faith in a people that defend themself in a grinding war. Changes will not be unthinkable, even by passing the local maffia is in order. Ukraine is backed for the rebuild. It will be a rich nation. For all of them


I agree with what you stated, but that is not the point I was trying to make.
But that in order for the EU and the USA to commit to such a huge "investment" the country (Ukraine) can't be at war.


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## SaparotRob (May 14, 2022)

I don't think Ukraine was held to any high esteem with the NATO powers until President Zelenskyy made his stand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I agree with what you stated, but that is not the point I was trying to make.
> But that in order for the EU and the USA to commit to such a huge "investment" the country (Ukraine) can't be at war.



Like the Marshall Plan, it must of necessity be post-war.

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> 100 times better than a gyro…


I thought this was a gyro?














An Austrian Company Has Built A Military-Grade Gyrocopter — And It Looks Awesome [PHOTOS]


Over 100 of these have been sold, and a deal with the U.S. is in the works.




www.businessinsider.com

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## Greg Boeser (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thought this was a gyro?
> 
> View attachment 668500
> 
> ...


Yeah. I hate those things. They always get stuck in my teeth.

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## SaparotRob (May 14, 2022)

So I'm thinking Ukraine grabs Belgorod. They hold phony elections and make it a part of Ukraine. Ukraine swaps it for Donetsk.

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> One has to start somewhere. A ceasefire is a start - it is not the finish.


After any ceasefire Putin is going to annex what he's holding, declare it Russian territory and threaten to defend it with nukes before he loses the lot. Worryingly, both the US and France are trying to talk Russia into agreeing a ceasefire.

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I don't think Ukraine was held to any high esteem with the NATO powers until President Zelenskyy made his stand.


Except by the Biden family? - if what I read in the "US Media" during the last election is true - and Trump was always trying to point that out.
Zelenskyy rise to power is very likely a Biden "creation"

And* Admiral Beez*, that Potus 44 did nothing - I see that very differently. It was during his administration that Ukrainian troops started to receive widespread training in Germany via the US Armed Forces and also received weaponry - during Trumps term this process was effectively continued, and provided essentially the basis for a capable Ukrainian Army that therefore managed to route Putin's forces around Kiev and the Sumy region.

Biden from what I know (but I might be wrong) even encouraged further spending and enlarging this "cooperation"

So basically it seems clear to me, that all 3 US administrations since 2015 were clearly bolstering Ukraine's forces against likely further aggression by Putin.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 14, 2022)

After all the local humanitarian cease-fires the Russians have abrogated, what fool would take them at their word anyway?

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

Good progress tracker and maps here…

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## tomo pauk (May 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> After all the local humanitarian cease-fires the Russians have abrogated, what fool would take them at their word anyway?



Current Russian government has the similar word-abiding aura as it was the case with Hitler in April 1939.

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## SaparotRob (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Except by the Biden family? - if what I read in the "US Media" during the last election is true - and Trump was always trying to point that out.
> Zelenskyy rise to power is very likely a Biden "creation"
> 
> And* Admiral Beez*, that Potus 44 did nothing - I see that very differently. It was during his administration that Ukrainian troops started to receive widespread training in Germany via the US Armed Forces and also received weaponry - during Trumps term this process was effectively continued, and provided essentially the basis for a capable Ukrainian Army that therefore managed to route Putin's forces around Kiev and the Sumy region.
> ...


At risk of being banned, you believe trump?

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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> At risk of being banned, you believe trump?


Generally I don't believe any politician - but when it comes to digging out dirt against each other - there is usually always some interesting issues to find out about

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## tomo pauk (May 14, 2022)

My take on any politicians:
Is the politician's mouth opened? If yes, they must be lying, or, in best case, they are economical with truth.

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Current Russian government has the similar word-abiding aura as it was the case with Hitler in April 1939.


To further Godwin's law, The big prize is still on the coast of Azov. Trust Manstein.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 14, 2022)

Ok, enough of the politics. We have eased the political restrictions but we still don’t want it going too far, and I see where this is headed.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 14, 2022)



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## Jagdflieger (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> After any ceasefire Putin is going to annex what he's holding, declare it Russian territory and threaten to defend it with nukes before he loses the lot. Worryingly, both the US and France are trying to talk Russia into agreeing a ceasefire.


I fully understand your reasoning - in the worst case, yes this will happen.
But politics and history take time to evolve. Important is to rebuild the Ukraine in order for them to be able to actually make a stand towards Russia, economically and militarily.
Who knows, who in 5-10 years will rule Russia - and might be willing to negotiate a return of annexed territory under the usual political framework - $ and cents.
Just my 5 cents

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Important is to rebuild the Ukraine in order for them to be able to actually make a stand towards Russia, economically and militarily.


Ukraine is taking a stand now. And with material and financial support from much of the world, is kicking Russia‘s ass. This, not so hypothetical time in the future is Ukraine’s finest hour and greatest opportunity to secure its border, citizens and state. From this POV, no Ukrainian is going to supporting dropping their weapons and sitting at a table with the Russians, unless it’s to discuss the complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, reparations and the extradition of Russian war criminals.

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

I’d love to have seen what Ukraine could have accomplished with a pair of Type 212 submarines.

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## Snautzer01 (May 14, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Zelenskyy rise to power is very likely a Biden "creation"


No. I doubt Biden ever heard of him before he was elected. Biden is not known to follow foreign comedy shows. Who knew he would be a strong leader of a nation in an attack by the now former number 2 heavy weight of the world. That is, i think, a part of why the evil plan doesnt go so well. In this case a leader that does just does that what he is elected for. And just in a good marriage not only for the good times. I am not a following kind of man, but given, i would. Cant see another option even from 1000 miles away.

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## pgeno71 (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is exactly what I feared…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think this proves that despite the bloviating by western politicians of standing with Ukraine and doing "whatever it takes" and "doing everything possible," in reality, they care more about their own problems and issues, and asses, and really don't give a shit about Ukraine. Remember, these were the same governments that sat back for almost six months as Putin amassed troops on Ukraine's border and did nothing. Not to mention that _Bloomberg_ and _Business Insider_ have both reported that European countries have opened up special accounts in Gazprombank so they can pay for Russian gas in rubles. Which according to _Reuters_, the German economic ministry says does not violate the sanctions. So as governments send billions in aid into Ukraine to fight Russian aggression, energy companies send even more billions into Russian coffers. How fucked up is that?

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## Admiral Beez (May 14, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I think this proves that despite the bloviating by western politicians of standing with Ukraine and doing "whatever it takes" and "doing everything possible," in reality, they care more about their own problems and issues, and asses, and really don't give a shit about Ukraine.


The truth is somewhere between these two extremes.

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## ThomasP (May 14, 2022)

A couple of bits of info:

Biden was a member of the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for over 25 years, and chaired it from 2001-03 and 2007-09, before becoming vice-president under Obama from 2009-17. Obama stated that one of the primary reasons he chose Biden as his running mate was due to his experience in foreign affairs over the preceding decades. He was, for example, the Obama administration's point man on the New Start Treaty. Although it is possible that Biden was not particularly aware of Zelenzskyy before he became president of Ukraine, I doubt anyone else outside of Ukraine was either(?).

The US training and aid program to Ukraine was initiated by the Obama administration, and continued under the Trump and Biden administration. Biden sat-in on and was witness to the planning. (As was already mentioned up-thread, Trump tried to withhold the aid package during his second campaign (2020) in exchange for info on the activities of Biden's son in the Ukraine, but Congress overrode Trump and forced the aid package through.)

Any US citizen's (honest) objection to continuing the war because of the monetary expense (to themselves) is based in extreme ignorance. The $40 Billion aid package (currently being prevented from passing in the Senate by Rand Paul (R)) amounts to less than 15/100ths of 1% of the projected 2022 US GNP. (There are, however, a lot of ignorant people in the US.)

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## pgeno71 (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The truth is somewhere between these two extremes.


We will see.

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## SaparotRob (May 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> A couple of bits of info:
> 
> Biden was a member of the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for over 25 years, and chaired it from 2001-03 and 2007-09, before becoming vice-president under Obama from 2009-17. Obama stated that one of the primary reasons he chose Biden as his running mate was due to his experience in foreign affairs over the preceding decades. He was, for example, the Obama administration's point man on the New Start Treaty. Although it is possible that Biden was not particularly aware of Zelenzskyy before he became president of Ukraine, I doubt anyone else outside of Ukraine was either(?).
> 
> ...


I like to think I’m a little less ignorant now. Thanks.

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## GrauGeist (May 14, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I think this proves that despite the bloviating by western politicians of standing with Ukraine and doing "whatever it takes" and "doing everything possible," in reality, they care more about their own problems and issues, and asses, and really don't give a shit about Ukraine. Remember, these were the same governments that sat back for almost six months as Putin amassed troops on Ukraine's border and did nothing. Not to mention that _Bloomberg_ and _Business Insider_ have both reported that European countries have opened up special accounts in Gazprombank so they can pay for Russian gas in rubles. Which according to _Reuters_, the German economic ministry says does not violate the sanctions. So as governments send billions in aid into Ukraine to fight Russian aggression, energy companies send even more billions into Russian coffers. How fucked up is that?


Keep in mind that the fuel purchased from Russia is by contract.

They just don't call up Russia and place an order, the fuel delivery is a negotiated contract for x-amount of fuel @ x-amount of Euros to be delivered over a period of time (quarterly, semi-annual or whatever is contracted) well ahead of actual delivery.

You also have to understand that entire nations are dependant on that fuel not only for private homes, but hospitals, institutions, farm production and manufacturing. So a sudden shutdown of fuel will have serious consequences for that nation.

Many countries have started to reduce their consumption and have received pledges for fuel from nations outside of Europe until and alternative and reliable supply for Europe can be established.

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## Glider (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thought this was a gyro?
> 
> View attachment 668500
> 
> ...


Old News - See Little Nellie

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## hawkeye2an (May 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thought this was a gyro?
> 
> View attachment 668500
> 
> ...


Needs more cucumber sauce

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## swampyankee (May 14, 2022)

Glider said:


> Old News - See Little Nellie
> View attachment 668525


Aah, yes. The military autogyro, an idea whose time has not been coming since its development well before WW2...

Most of the complication of a helicopter without their one real benefit: hovering.

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## MiTasol (May 14, 2022)

Does anyone know if this has survived the invasion - it is/was in the Donbass region








Amazing museum!!! - Review of Aviation Technical Museum, Luhansk, Ukraine - Tripadvisor


Aviation Technical Museum: Amazing museum!!! - See 12 traveler reviews, 26 candid photos, and great deals for Luhansk, Ukraine, at Tripadvisor.




www.tripadvisor.com












Aviation Technical Museum (Luhansk) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





This suggests otherwise








This 'Brand New' Air Force Might Be Built From Stolen Museum Exhibits


Pro-Russian separatists are starting to renovate old fighter jets and helicopters stolen from museums in Ukraine




www.vocativ.com

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## GrauGeist (May 15, 2022)

"No matter where you go, there you are..."

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## WARSPITER (May 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> "No matter where you go, there you are..."
> 
> View attachment 668546


"Now let's see. There was a whitegoods place just back down the road so I can get some parts there.....".

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 15, 2022)

That guy is channeling Wile E. Coyote, Esq.

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## ThomasP (May 15, 2022)

Ran across an interesting bit of info, re the lack of explosive in the reactive armour units on the Russian tanks (mentioned up-thread) in Ukraine.

In the First Chechen War the Russians lost a couple of hundred AFVs, including a significant number of tanks. Most of the Russian tanks deployed did not have reactive armour - and of the ones that did have it, many of the reactive armour units did not have the explosive filler necessary. Sounds like what was(is still?) going on with the reactive armour on the Russian tanks in Ukraine.

Also, for anyone interested I highly reading up on the First Chechen War of 1994-96. It has a lot of similarities to what has been going on in Ukraine.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)

Russian channels claim that the Russian army stopped the AFU attempt to cross the Seversky Donets River, where the Ukrainian army created a pontoon crossing and tried to cross the river (sounds familiar). I searched about that but found no evidence other than russian claims. Some even claim that 72 Ukranian vehicles where destroyed in the failed crossing. Number that is suspiciously close the Ukranian claims 


The only evidence is this video, that shows little to no evidence at all, looks more like a propaganda video.


I detected this claims right after the info about Ukraine stopping several RU crossing attempts started to spread. Anyone has seen any evidence on that?

Interesting that right after the UAF attacks on snake island. Russian claims (with no evidence) also started to circulate that UAF lost several planes helicopters, ships, men and drones trying to assault snake Island.


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## ThomasP (May 15, 2022)



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## Denniss (May 15, 2022)

If you have nothing good to report just twist, bend or even reverse the truth. So a terrible loss becomes a great victory.
"No, there are no american tanks behind me blasting through Baghdad"

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## Dimlee (May 15, 2022)

Not my style of music, but I watched it till the end.

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## Dimlee (May 15, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Thanks for the links.
> The last link "prosecutionerservice.nl was one of the links I had also checked.
> However there is no conclusive proven evidence that the system was manned by Russian military personal. That the system originated from a Russian military unit was known and
> doesn't constitute a proof as to who manned it.
> ...


Defendants provided assistance, that is clear. They didn't operate the Buk.
Evidence of the military personnel was provided by the witnesses and by the correspondence and intercepted phones/radio talks of the defendants and of other Russian and separatist personnel.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)

No comments needed.

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## Jagdflieger (May 15, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> View attachment 668612


Happened to me a couple of times after my daughter was playing with Lego - and wearing no slippers I can tell you it really hurts.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> View attachment 668612


I think this one is closer to reality. Except there are no (serious) peace talks yet.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Not my style of music, but I watched it till the end.

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## Admiral Beez (May 15, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Does anyone know if this has survived the invasion - it is/was in the Donbass region
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is why in Canada all museums must legally sever the mainspars or otherwise permanently disable all retired jet fighters. We can’t have the now petrodollar rich Albertan separatists seizing museum pieces and raising up.

On a more serious note, I’m forever impressed by Ukraine‘s civilian soldiers. The woman below is my daughter’s age.

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## wlewisiii (May 15, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (May 15, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (May 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian channels claim that the Russian army stopped the AFU attempt to cross the Seversky Donets River, where the Ukrainian army created a pontoon crossing and tried to cross the river (sounds familiar). I searched about that but found no evidence other than russian claims. Some even claim that 72 Ukranian vehicles where destroyed in the failed crossing. Number that is suspiciously close the Ukranian claims
> 
> 
> The only evidence is this video, that shows little to no evidence at all, looks more like a propaganda video.
> ...




Perhaps an attempt to explain away pictures they cannot stop some Russians from seeing?

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## wlewisiii (May 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



Now that's good to imagine - Dutch Vengeance arriving at 6 rounds a minute ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 15, 2022)

_RUSKA LOZOVA, Ukraine, May 15 (Reuters) - The front lines in Ukraine had shifted on Sunday as Russia made advances in the fiercely contested eastern Donbas region and Ukraine's military waged a counteroffensive near the strategic Russian-held city of Izium.

Near the northeastern city of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have been on the attack since early this month, commanders said they believed Russia had been withdrawing troops to reinforce positions around Izium to the south.

[...]

In Ruska Lozova, a village set in sweeping fields between Kharkiv and Ukraine's border with Russia, Ukrainian commanders said they believed Moscow was redeploying troops to defend Izium while keeping their opponents pinned down with artillery fire.

"The Russian attack on Kharkiv has been destroyed and they understand this," said Ihor Obolensky, who commands the National Guard and volunteer force that captured Ruska Lozova eight days ago. "They need to try for a new victory and want to hold Izium."

[...]

But Ukraine's military also acknowledged setbacks in an update on Sunday morning: "Despite losses, Russian forces continue to advance in the Lyman, Sievierodonetsk, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv areas in the broader Donbas region."_









Battle rages for Ukrainian region of Donbas


Russia pummelled positions in the east of Ukraine on Sunday, its defence ministry said, as it sought to encircle Ukrainian forces in the battle for Donbas and fend off a counteroffensive around the strategic Russian-controlled city of Izium.




www.reuters.com





ETA:

_
"Russia's war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow had planned," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, speaking by video as he recovers from a COVID-19 infection." "They failed to take Kiev. They are pulling back from around Kharkiv. Their major offensive in Donbas has stalled. Russia is not achieving its strategic objectives."

"Ukraine can win this war," he said, adding that NATO must continue to step up its military support to the country._



https://thehill.com/news/ap/ap-international/nato-sees-russias-war-faltering-mulls-expanding-alliance/

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## Reluctant Poster (May 15, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Wow
> Is it like garlic, cucumber, with some dill?
> Agreed!


Doner is the original. Gyro, Shawarma (and from Shawarma, Tacos Al Pastor) and Donair (the Canadian version) are derivatives. In fact, the name Gyro is relatively recent. They were known as doners until the 70s. From Wiki "_Shawarma_ is an Arabic rendering of Turkish _çevirme_ [tʃeviɾˈme] 'turning', referring to the turning rotisserie". "The name comes from the Greek γύρος (_gyros_, 'circle' or 'turn'), and is a calque of the Turkish word _döner_, from _dönmek_, also meaning "turn".[14]​ It was originally called ντονέρ (pronounced [doˈner]) in Greece."
They have diverged but they are all good in their own way. I have no problem eating any of them.

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## Glider (May 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Now that's good to imagine - Dutch Vengeance arriving at 6 rounds a minute ...


If we have any FH70 lying around in storage I do hope we send them. It's still a useful piece of kit

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## GrauGeist (May 15, 2022)

Reluctant Poster said:


> Doner is the original. Gyro, Shawarma (and from Shawarma, Tacos Al Pastor) and Donair (the Canadian version) are derivatives. In fact, the name Gyro is relatively recent. They were known as doners until the 70s. From Wiki "_Shawarma_ is an Arabic rendering of Turkish _çevirme_ [tʃeviɾˈme] 'turning', referring to the turning rotisserie". "The name comes from the Greek γύρος (_gyros_, 'circle' or 'turn'), and is a calque of the Turkish word _döner_, from _dönmek_, also meaning "turn".[14]​ It was originally called ντονέρ (pronounced [doˈner]) in Greece."
> They have diverged but they are all good in their own way. I have no problem eating any of them.


Al Pastor was introduced to Mexico by Lebanese immigrants in the late 1800's.

It's really good (though I prefer Carne Asada), especially when prepared the traditional way.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Reluctant Poster said:


> Doner is the original. Gyro, Shawarma (and from Shawarma, Tacos Al Pastor) and Donair (the Canadian version) are derivatives. In fact, the name Gyro is relatively recent. They were known as doners until the 70s. From Wiki "_Shawarma_ is an Arabic rendering of Turkish _çevirme_ [tʃeviɾˈme] 'turning', referring to the turning rotisserie". "The name comes from the Greek γύρος (_gyros_, 'circle' or 'turn'), and is a calque of the Turkish word _döner_, from _dönmek_, also meaning "turn".[14]​ It was originally called ντονέρ (pronounced [doˈner]) in Greece."
> They have diverged but they are all good in their own way. I have no problem eating any of them.



Actually no, the Döner Kebab that is popular today is not the original, but its the best.

Turkish immigrants in Berlin came up with it. . The modern sandwich variant of döner kebab was derived and popularized in Berlin since the 1960s by Turkish immigrants. This has been recognized by the Association of Turkish Doner Manufacturers in 2011. Nowadays there are more döner kebab stores in Berlin than in Istanbul.









 Doner kebab - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Aarrrrhgh! Here I am off topic again.

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## GTX (May 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian channels claim that the Russian army stopped the AFU attempt to cross the Seversky Donets River, where the Ukrainian army created a pontoon crossing and tried to cross the river (sounds familiar). I searched about that but found no evidence other than russian claims. Some even claim that 72 Ukranian vehicles where destroyed in the failed crossing. Number that is suspiciously close the Ukranian claims
> 
> 
> The only evidence is this video, that shows little to no evidence at all, looks more like a propaganda video.
> ...



Wow! Give it time and they will be claiming Ukraine launched invasion of Russia...

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## GrauGeist (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Aarrrrhgh! Here I am off topic again.


But it's such a tasty off-topic!

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## at6 (May 15, 2022)

Perhaps the Russians will withdraw if threatened with Haggis.

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## GTX (May 15, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

at6 said:


> Perhaps the Russians will withdraw if threatened with Haggis.



Naw, but maybe Hamburger Helper and Sloppy Joes served with a side of freedom fries?

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## Admiral Beez (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Aarrrrhgh! Here I am off topic again.


Aren’t you on staff here and tasked with keeping us on topic?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 15, 2022)



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## GTX (May 15, 2022)

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/bomb-them-russia-accused-of-toddler-meltdown-over-ukraines-eurovision-win/news-story/421bbacf2fe05554f407c7114bc5dc50

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/bomb-them-russia-accused-of-toddler-meltdown-over-ukraines-eurovision-win/news-story/421bbacf2fe05554f407c7114bc5dc50
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 668766



"We're not butthurt -- honest!"

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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Not my style of music, but I watched it till the end.



Heartstring pluckin's sure come a long way since _Yankee Doodle _in 1776 and_ la Marseilles_ in 1793!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/bomb-them-russia-accused-of-toddler-meltdown-over-ukraines-eurovision-win/news-story/421bbacf2fe05554f407c7114bc5dc50
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 668766


WoW! I didn't see that one coming! Irate for the Eurovisión song contest!

BTW, I saw it last night after years and years and I must confess that I liked very much, unlike previous editions. Maybe that is the reason that Russia is furious about it, a great show but they weren't there.

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## Glider (May 15, 2022)

Has anyone heard of this. It's so outrageous I wouldn't normally consider it but after what we have seen almost anything goes



Russian troops in Ukraine resort to crowdsourcing equipment as soldiers ask parents to pay for body armour

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## Greg Boeser (May 15, 2022)

Happened during OIF, so not surprising.


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## syscom3 (May 15, 2022)

Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Aren’t you on staff here and tasked with keeping us on topic?
> 
> View attachment 668762



Yeah, well if you guys would not drive me insane babysitting you all maybe I could.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Happened during OIF, so not surprising.



What happened during OIF?


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## FLYBOYJ (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.


I guess if you're a bear you're too dumb to realize when* you're not* being threatened!

Or better yet, ask yourself, why did those countries bordering Russia want to join NATO in the first place?

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## Admiral Beez (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye?


Why can’t Russia behave like pretty much every other European country in 2022? You know, pursue democracy, capitalist economics, and reduced corruption, freedom of speech, freedom of press, etc. It’s not perfect everywhere in Europe, but even former dictatorships like Romania are getting it together. Meanwhile Russia terrorizes its own people and neighbours?

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## syscom3 (May 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I guess if you're a bear you're too dumb to realize when* you're not* being threatened!
> 
> Or better yet, ask yourself, why did those countries bordering Russia want to join NATO in the first place?



Why provoke a nuclear war? The stakes are too high. We have no business putting US troops on Russia’s border. Nor risking US troops on countries that were not part of the initial group of treaty nations.


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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.



Thinks............................. Mmmmmm. Ukraine was effectively neutral too and that worked really really well for them didn't it.

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## Greg Boeser (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What happened during OIF?


American troops were having family send body armor over because there wasn't enough to go around.


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## wlewisiii (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.


Around here if a bear starts killing people, we don't ask if the dead built their homes too close to the bear's dens or let it get used to eating our trash. 

The bear gets put down. Period.

Like this: Grizzly bear shot dead after killing woman in Montana Published10 July 2021

Other murderous, if metaphorical, bears need to be treated the same way.

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## syscom3 (May 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Around here if a bear starts killing people, we don't ask if the dead built their homes too close to the bear's dens or let it get used to eating our trash.
> 
> The bear gets put down. Period.
> 
> ...


At the cost of nuclear war? No thanks.


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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.



As others have pointed out, Ukraine was non-aligned. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by the US, UK and Russia, provided that none of the signatories would threaten or use military force against Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. France and China didn't sign the memorandum but later signed other, albeit weaker, agreements with the 3 nations. As a result of these guarantees, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed to give up their nuclear weapons.

Given Russia's actions against Ukraine, why would any sensible-minded national leader believe a word that comes out of the Kremlin? Remember back in February how Putin and his cronies kept saying that the forces on Ukraine's borders were just conducting exercises and they had no intention of invading Ukraine? 

Nobody wants nuclear war but, at the same time, we can't just stand by and let Putin get his way, particularly when it involves sacrificing Ukraine or other independent nations. Failure to confront Putin will simply encourage him to do the same again, and again, and again.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.


It seems the Russian Federation doesn't have a monopoly on cold war mindset. The times they are a-changin' and we're relearning the lessons of 1938-39 on the backs of the Ukrainian people. Time hurries on, but some playbooks repeat themselves with tragic regularity. The actors may change, but the script stays eternal.

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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why provoke a nuclear war? The stakes are too high. We have no business putting US troops on Russia’s border. Nor risking US troops on countries that were not part of the initial group of treaty nations.



Nope. We have every business putting troops in any NATO nation that wants our troops there. All the NATO member nations agreed to expansion to bring in other eastern European nations. Since we agreed to those additions, we (the US) are obligated by treaty to abide by them. We can't back out now just because Putin is waving his willy around. Again, weakness only encourages him. Putin has been trying for decades to divide NATO. What you propose plays right into his hands. 

Since we can't selectively expel NATO members from the organization, the alternative is for the US to pull out of NATO itself. Can you imagine the party in the Kremlin if that were to happen? Are you recommending that course of action?

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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Since we can't selectively expel NATO members from the organization, the alternative is for the US to pull out of NATO itself. Can you imagine the party in the Kremlin if that were to happen? Are you recommending that course of action?


POTUS45 would jump for joy! Fiddling while Rome burns.

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## FLYBOYJ (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why provoke a nuclear war? The stakes are too high. We have no business putting US troops on Russia’s border. Nor risking US troops on countries that were not part of the initial group of treaty nations.





> _As others have pointed out, Ukraine was non-aligned. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by the US, UK and Russia, provided that none of the signatories would threaten or use military force against Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. France and China didn't sign the memorandum but later signed other, albeit weaker, agreements with the 3 nations. As a result of these guarantees, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed to give up their nuclear weapons.
> 
> Given Russia's actions against Ukraine, why would any sensible-minded national leader believe a word that comes out of the Kremlin? Remember back in February how Putin and his cronies kept saying that the forces on Ukraine's borders were just conducting exercises and they had no intention of invading Ukraine?
> 
> *Nobody wants nuclear war but, at the same time, we can't just stand by and let Putin get his way, particularly when it involves sacrificing Ukraine or other independent nations. Failure to confront Putin will simply encourage him to do the same again, and again, and again.*_



Seems I heard this before....

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## wlewisiii (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> At the cost of nuclear war? No thanks.





> If you can't take a little bloody nose, maybe you ought to go back home and crawl under your bed. It's not safe out here. It's wondrous, with treasures to satiate desires both subtle and gross. But it's not for the timid.


John de Lancie
Q Who

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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why can’t Russia behave like pretty much every other European country in 2022? You know, pursue democracy, capitalist economics, and reduced corruption, freedom of speech, freedom of press, etc. It’s not perfect everywhere in Europe, but even former dictatorships like Romania are getting it together. Meanwhile Russia terrorizes its own people and neighbours?



Frankly, I don't give 2 hoots whether Russia adopts Western norms of democracy, personal freedoms, and capitalism. Russia can and should decide for themselves what type of government they want. What they CANNOT do is start imposing their will on other nations by military force. Invading another sovereign nation just because you're trying to relive the glory days of the USSR is not an adequate justification. 

If Ukraine was attacking Russia, then that's one thing...but it wasn't. The whole "but the people of Donbas are ethnic Russians" stuff is straight out of Hitler's playbook. I've driven from Germany into Poland and the closer you get to the latter, the more signs you see in both German and Polish. Of course there's bleedover at borders but that didn't justify Hitler's actions in 1938 onwards nor does it justify Putin's actions in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia or anywhere else outside of the legally-recognized boundary of Russia.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Frankly, I don't give 2 hoots whether Russia adopts Western norms of democracy, personal freedoms, and capitalism. Russia can and should decide for themselves what type of government they want.


Democracy, personal freedom, and capitalism are learned skills, difficult to instill in a culture that doesn't have the history and traditions to allow the appropriate social, economic, and political reflexes to develop. They all depend on trust, a rare commodity in people that have been downtrodden and oppressed since time immemorial.

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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Democracy, personal freedom, and capitalism are learned skills, difficult to instill in a culture that doesn't have the history and traditions to allow the appropriate social, economic, and political reflexes to develop. They all depend on trust, a rare commodity in people that have been downtrodden and oppressed since time immemorial.



I don't disagree. That's my whole point though. Democracy and capitalism aren't necessarily good. But they're the least worst of the options available. Russians can have whatever form of government they're comfortable with...just stop trying to export it at the pointy-end of a bayonet.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why are we poking the bear in the eye? No NATO expansion and those countries bordering Russia, just stay neutral. It worked for decades during the Cold War.



So Russia should be able to determine the foreign policies of sovereign nations? Because that's what your suggestion amounts to.

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## SaparotRob (May 15, 2022)

I think we are being pranked.

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> At the cost of nuclear war? No thanks.



I no longer think there is much danger of that. 

Remember Russia is now a virtual client of China and getting more and more in political and financial debt to them every day. Russia's Foreign Relations minister was talking up nukes for weeks but the moment that China said the use of nukes was not acceptable he immediately changed to Russia will not use nukes. 

Not even Vlad would be willing to have Russia lose all China's financial and political help -- or to have Russia overrun by the Chinese.

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> As others have pointed out, Ukraine was non-aligned. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by the US, UK and Russia, provided that none of the signatories would threaten or use military force against Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. France and China didn't sign the memorandum but later signed other, albeit weaker, agreements with the 3 nations. As a result of these guarantees, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan agreed to give up their nuclear weapons.
> 
> *Given Russia's actions against Ukraine, why would any sensible-minded national leader believe a word that comes out of the Kremlin?* Remember back in February how Putin and his cronies kept saying that the forces on Ukraine's borders were just conducting exercises and they had no intention of invading Ukraine?
> 
> Nobody wants nuclear war but, at the same time, we can't just stand by and let Putin get his way, particularly when it involves sacrificing Ukraine or other independent nations. *Failure to confront Putin will simply encourage him to do the same again, and again, and again.*



Just like appeasing Hitler did in the 30's

*Those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them*

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## pgeno71 (May 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Keep in mind that the fuel purchased from Russia is by contract.
> 
> They just don't call up Russia and place an order, the fuel delivery is a negotiated contract for x-amount of fuel @ x-amount of Euros to be delivered over a period of time (quarterly, semi-annual or whatever is contracted) well ahead of actual delivery.
> 
> ...


I understand it all completely, I just believe that the situation of paying both combatants in a war is lunacy that is a direct result of Europe's misguided energy policy and the habit of appeasing Putin, which has become ingrained in government policy over the past 15 or so years.

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

According to one Aus news site Russia has cut electricity off to Finland because Finland is asking to join NATO but I have not seen this elsewhere. So - true or false?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> American troops were having family send body armor over because there wasn't enough to go around.



Huh? I don’t remember that.

Edit: now I remember the shortage.


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## Admiral Beez (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Huh? I don’t remember that.


There apparently was a shortage, but that’s all I can see on line.









Body Armor Claim: Still False and Nasty - FactCheck.org


Summary The liberal group VoteVets.org is running an ad claiming that Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole "voted against giving our troops" life-saving body armor. It’s a slightly revised version of an ad the same group ran against four GOP senators in the 2006 election. The claim was false and nasty...




www.factcheck.org


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## wlewisiii (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Huh? I don’t remember that.


There were shortages in the supply chain. Command decided that ~50k support troops didn't need them so that they could be given priority to the combat troops at the front line. 

Shortly thereafter, snipers, insurgents, etc made it just as unhealthy for support troops as for combat troops. 

There are stories of families sending civilian body armor overseas in care packages as well as troops buying body armor on the civilian market before deploying to Iraq. Google will find plenty of stories of varying levels of truth. 

Production eventually, as always, caught up and it became more of a political football than a valid problem. 

It's really no different than during WWII when command didn't prioritize winter uniforms because the war would be over by Christmas and then the Bulge happened. Some troops from the north had LLBean clothing and boots shipped to them but not everyone knew to do so. My ex's uncle from Alabama was cold the whole time of the Bulge and never forgave the Army for that. Same these days with memories of body armor.


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## Admiral Beez (May 15, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> According to one Aus news site Russia has cut electricity off to Finland because Finland is asking to join NATO but I have not seen this elsewhere. So - true or false?


The Finns will be fine. This is the shove all of Europe needed to severe their energy ties to Russia. 

As a Canadian I’d like to see my country expedite LNG export development. We have more natural gas than our 15 million households could ever need. Unfortunately our main projects to develop the export of LNG are based in BC, intended for sale in Asia.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> There were shortages in the supply chain. Command decided that ~50k support troops didn't need them so that they could be given priority to the combat troops at the front line.
> 
> Shortly thereafter, snipers, insurgents, etc made it just as unhealthy for support troops as for combat troops.
> 
> ...



Yeah, I now I remember. It was the same for us. We did not get our body armor until we got to Kuwait. There was none on hand until we got to Kuwait.


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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Finns will be fine. This is the shove all of Europe needed to severe their energy ties to Russia.
> 
> As a Canadian I’d like to see my country expedite LNG export development. We have more natural gas than our 15 million households could ever need. *Unfortunately our main projects to develop the export of LNG are *based in BC, *intended for sale in Asia.*



Same in Aus
We export it for a fraction of the cost that locals pay. I know there are large distribution and metering costs but I feel there is no way they are that high.

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## buffnut453 (May 15, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> According to one Aus news site Russia has cut electricity off to Finland because Finland is asking to join NATO but I have not seen this elsewhere. So - true or false?



It was mentioned at Post #6103. Seems to be legitimate, although Russia is claiming this is due to Finnish non-payment and has nothing to do with any decision to join NATO. I can't believe Finland would not be paying its bills, and the timing of the decision to cut off electricity to Finland is suspicious to say the least.

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

*Russian forces fired at Severodonetsk hospital on Sunday, Luhansk regional military administrator says*
_Russian forces fired at the hospital in Severodonetsk on Sunday, Serhii Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, posted to his official Telegram channel. 
Nine civilians were injured and received medical treatment at the hospital, which continued to operate during shelling, he said.
"Over the past day, the orcs (a derogatory Ukrainian term for Russian troops) carried out 11 artillery attacks on Severodonetsk," he added.
The Russians "shelled houses, a chemical plant, a school and a hospital," he said._

This is the region of the Museum I queried about yesterday where pro Russians were "restoring" museum exhibits to use them to support the Russian invasion.

Looks like some of the residents have changed sides. May many more join them

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## Jagdflieger (May 15, 2022)

The relevant statement was made by Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko:
_If the war lasts more than another 'three or four months', painful measures will be needed, involving huge tax rises and swingeing spending cuts.

If we do not take into account foreign aid, we now estimate the receipt of revenues in May-June at the level of 45-50% of (what was) planned, provided that the situation does not worsen," Marchenko said._ (actually the realistic estimated receipt of revenues in Mai-June is at 35-40%)

_A reminder that Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Kyrylo Budanov expects the breaking point in the war to be in August and most of active combat actions to finish by the end of the year._








Minister Marchenko: It will be hard for Ukraine’s economy to sustain a long war


It will be hard for Ukraine’s economy to sustain a long war, and the Ukrainian government greatly relies on financial assistance from abroad. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

Which means Russia's economy needs to tank first or the Ukrainians win some major battles that demoralize the Russians into surrender and I doubt the latter will happen.

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## Greg Boeser (May 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Huh? I don’t remember that.
> 
> Edit: now I remember the shortage.


Our unit was reservists and REMFs, so we got the older style kevlar vests. The ballistic vests went to the regular combat units. Later, some super-REMFs were sent out from Meade to show us part-timers how things were done. They squealed like little girls when they weren't issued the latest toys. Went out on an op with the Florida NG, and they were lining their soft Hummers with the kevlar vests. I saw lots of interesting field mods.

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## MiTasol (May 15, 2022)

Now that would be a different modeling project - a Florida NG field modded Hummer with vest armor

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 15, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Our unit was reservists and REMFs, so we got the older style kevlar vests. The ballistic vests went to the regular combat units. Later, some super-REMFs were sent out from Meade to show us part-timers how things were done. They squealed like little girls when they weren't issued the latest toys. Went out on an op with the Florida NG, and they were lining their soft Hummers with the kevlar vests. I saw lots of interesting field mods.



Yeah, when we got to Kuwait, we were issued ballistic “blankets” for our helicopters, but our ground support units still had soft hummers. They went and purchased steel plates on the Kuwaiti economy and welded them to the vehicles for the convoy into Iraq. It was not until a month later that they got the actual uparmour mods. Personal body armor we all got in Kuwait.

It was an interesting time for sure.

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## Glider (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> At the cost of nuclear war? No thanks.


Then why does the USA have nuclear weapons? It's to stop the bear attacking it.
If we follow your logic, the risk is too high so why not just surrender. 

If you lived in Sweden or Finland and had seen Russian break every agreement its ever signed, attack every civilian target with almost every weapon at its disposal, lay waste to major cities, terrorise the people in the area's its captured with every conceivable atrocity and know that the same could easily happen to you. What would you do?

If Russia or China decided to take a shine at Hawaii, or Alaska would you think the risk of nuclear war is to high, we can just sign something and avoid world devastation. Or would you defend what is metaphorically the line in the sand?

I like to think that you would defend yourself.

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## Glider (May 16, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Seems I heard this before....
> 
> View attachment 668784


That is a stunning image

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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why provoke a nuclear war? The stakes are too high. *We have no business putting US troops on Russia’s border.* *Nor risking US troops on countries that were not part of the initial group of treaty nations.*



Mmmmmmmm.

Thinking .....................................

Aaaahhhh. I understand now.

You want to tear up all the international agreements the US has signed in the last 30+ years.

You sound like one of those shameless types that signs up to join the military for the girls and uniforms etc but who go AWOL as soon as the shooting starts.

Are you a politician by any chance?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> According to one Aus news site Russia has cut electricity off to Finland because Finland is asking to join NATO but I have not seen this elsewhere. So - true or false?



Here's the article I read on it the other day:

_HELSINKI, May 13 (Reuters) - Russian state-owned utility Inter RAO (IRAO.MM) will stop exporting electricity to Finland from Saturday because it has not been paid, the company's Finnish subsidiary said on Friday.

Inter RAO has not received payments for electricity sold via pan-European power exchange Nord Pool since May 6, the subsidiary said, without giving any reason.

"This situation is exceptional and happened for the first time in over twenty years of our trading history," RAO Nordic, said in a statement.

Power imports to Finland will be halted from 1 a.m. local time on Saturday (2200 GMT on Friday) "for the time being," Finnish grid operator Fingrid said in a separate statement, citing RAO Nordic.

Fingrid added there was no threat to Finnish supplies and that power from Russia accounted for some 10% of Finland's total consumption.

"Missing imports can be replaced in the electricity market by importing more electricity from Sweden and also by domestic production," it said.

[...]

Asked whether payments had been required to be made in roubles, the spokesperson told Reuters: "We have never had settlements in roubles, only in euros, Norwegian crowns, Swedish crowns and Danish crowns, in line with our standard procedures."_









Russia's Inter RAO to halt power exports to Finland due lack of payment


Russian state-owned utility Inter RAO will stop exporting electricity to Finland from Saturday because it has not been paid, the company's Finnish subsidiary said on Friday.




www.reuters.com





So although it doesn't look like direct fallout from Finland's decision to join NATO, it does look like fallout from Russia's decision to demand payment in rubles. The Finns don't seem to be bothered either way.

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

Yeah, Finland stopped paying because Russia has been demanding payment in Rubles since the sanctions started.

That, by the way, is a breach of contract, as the fuel/electricity contracts were to be paid in Euros.

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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I understand it all completely, I just believe that the situation of paying both combatants in a war is lunacy that is a direct result of Europe's misguided energy policy and the habit of appeasing Putin, which has become ingrained in government policy over the past 15 or so years.



Part of that energy disaster comes from _green _politicians who demand that all non-polluting nuclear power plants are closed and replaced by _green _energy having high *manufacturing* pollution. They also forgot that means using Russian gas until the _green _generators can provide the 24/7 load, and any time that green energy cannot fill the load on its own. If my memory is correct Germany likes to pat itself on the back about how little coal and nuce power they produce but forget to say much (most?) of their power is imported from other countries.

The _greens _also totally ignore the massive noise pollution from wind power as well as the massive environmental damage the mines and manufacturing cause to make solar panels that need to last at least 11 years to pay back the environment for their manufacturing costs alone. I don't know how long a battery storage unit must last to be damage neutral but given the number in the news that have caught fire I suspect that is another environmental disaster.

Look also at the rush to get rid of CFCs and replace them with compounds that we now know are worse for the environment than CFCs were and the unleaded fuel that gives millions leukemia and other cancers and diseases.

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## WARSPITER (May 16, 2022)

Finland is now putting it's latest nuclear power station online which will replace the power they get from Russia anyway.

Much is made of Swedens use of hydro electric power as it supplies 45% of their needs but their nuclear power plants supply
40%.

Germany is shutting down it's nuclear plants which has increased their greenhouse gas output even with the large building
projects for wind and solar. This is because coal plants have to take up the slack due to wind and solar being unreliable
sources. They are paying the price for shutting their own hard coal mining operations as they now have to import about 45%
of their coal supply from Russia.

Italy is heavily reliant on Russian supplies and needs some help with alternative sources.

Alternatives for coal and oil are there and will take over but gas is more difficult.

The strange opposition to later generation nuclear facilities (no meltdowns and way better efficiency) has been a major cause
of the current reliance problems which MiTasol has pointed out.


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## Greg Boeser (May 16, 2022)

I understand whale oil is renewable.

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Part of that energy disaster comes from _green _politicians who demand that all non-polluting nuclear power plants are closed and replaced by _green _energy having high *manufacturing* pollution. They also forgot that means using Russian gas until the _green _generators can provide the 24/7 load, and any time that green energy cannot fill the load on its own. If my memory is correct Germany likes to pat itself on the back about how little coal and nuce power they produce but forget to say much (most?) of their power is imported from other countries.
> 
> The _greens _also totally ignore the massive noise pollution from wind power as well as the massive environmental damage the mines and manufacturing cause to make solar panels that need to last at least 11 years to pay back the environment for their manufacturing costs alone. I don't know how long a battery storage unit must last to be damage neutral but given the number in the news that have caught fire I suspect that is another environmental disaster.
> 
> Look also at the rush to get rid of CFCs and replace them with compounds that we now know are worse for the environment than CFCs were and the unleaded fuel that gives millions leukemia and other cancers and diseases.


Not to mention the virtue signalling from the EV owners, who look down on gasoline powered vehicles, while missing the fact that the Cobalt and Lithium needed for their vehicles mostly come from mines in Africa, where children and adults work in deplorable conditions in an environmentally ruinous setting for starvation wages.
Add to that, no economical way to recycle those spent batteries, which end up in landfills at end-of-life (like wind generator blades).

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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Alternatives for coal and oil are there and will take over but gas is more difficult.



There is surplus gas in Aus and Canada though the Chinese and Japanese take a large part of it. That unfortunately means that Italy would have to outbid them on the open market.


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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not to mention the virtue signalling from the EV owners, who look down on gasoline powered vehicles, while missing the fact that the Cobalt and Lithium needed for their vehicles mostly come from mines in Africa, where children and adults work in deplorable conditions in an environmentally ruinous setting for starvation wages.
> *Add to that, no economical way to recycle those spent batteries, *which end up in landfills at end-of-life (like wind generator blades).



There is a battery recycle plant in Aus - maybe more than one - but the process is long and complex and no-one will say what the cost of that recycling is. I suspect much of their operating costs are funded by the taxpayers. None of the press releases I have seen show the financial value of the output - or even the volume of reusable product.


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## WARSPITER (May 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I understand whale oil is renewable.


One bright spark told me a while ago that instead of killing whales we should just tranquillise them and then use liposuction to make
it a renewable resource operation.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Part of that energy disaster comes from _green _politicians who *demand that all non-polluting nuclear power plants are closed *and replaced by _green _energy having high *manufacturing* pollution.


That's ZERO nuclear plants qualifying to continue operating. No such thing as a *non-polluting *nuke plant.
I'll settle any day for a technology that has only one manufacturing and one recycling pollution in its lifetime vs one that continuously cranks out perpetually lethal waste that we still haven't figured out how to safely dispose of. Until fusion technology deploys on a commercial scale, nuclear energy is just not an acceptable solution.

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## Glider (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> The _greens _also totally ignore the massive noise pollution from wind power as well as the massive environmental damage the mines and manufacturing cause to make solar panels that need to last at least 11 years to pay back the environment for their manufacturing costs alone. I don't know how long a battery storage unit must last to be damage neutral but given the number in the news that have caught fire I suspect that is another environmental disaster.
> 
> Look also at the rush to get rid of CFCs and replace them with compounds that we now know are worse for the environment than CFCs were and the unleaded fuel that gives millions leukemia and other cancers and diseases.


There is little noise pollution from wind turbines. If your very close and they are going full tilt then yes there is some noise, but you have to be very close and they don't often go full tilt. The UK is littered with wind turbines and I go past some every day and the noise pollution is greatly, greatly exaggerated.

We have in Hull one of the biggest wind turbine manufacturers in Europe and certainly in the UK

Siemens to double size of Hull offshore wind turbine blade factory | ITV News

It is also cost effective and this cost benefit is growing all the time as the technology develops and this applies to Solar Panels as well. The cost of production is falling all the time.

Currently in the UK there are some days where none of the Gas or Coal stations are used at all. Right now the biggest problem coming up is by 2030 the UK will be producing more power from nuclear and renewables than it uses for 50% of the year. The problem being where and how to store it.

Edit - Re Jaguar I Pace electric car batteries a project is underway for these to be used as a home store electric power system when their life as a car battery is over. They can be recharged via Solar Panels and then used to power the house

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## ThomasP (May 16, 2022)

Although we are straying further off topic . . .

Obviously it depends where you live as to whether the particular power generation system is suitable, but the soon to be available systems are kind of amazing.

"Why the first big U.S. ocean wind farm is a big deal"

The newest windfarms (in the US) like the one in the link above are potentially very effective. And the older ones are being upgraded in a systematic manor to gain in competitiveness.

Also, the newest (available) solar cells are a significant leap up in efficiency (jumping from under 20% to over 40%) - to the point where they should be directly competitive in cost/watt in comparison to fossil fuel power generations systems.

"Solar cell efficiency - Wikipedia."

The latest nuclear power plants are also much safer and efficient than the last generation(s), although scale of use is still the primary defining factor. The main problems (if you do not count politics) facing new nuclear power plants are the initial cost of construction and long lead times.

All of the power generation systems have serious effects on the environment (whether pollution or footprint or both) but the idea is to find the combination that least impacts the environment in a manner that is irredeemable (ie the least likely to lead to global warming and/or mass die offs due to direct pollution) and/or cause serious health effects in the human population (such as has occurred with pollution from coal fired power plants and IC engines using leaded gasoline).

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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

But a nuke plant can also be a big dirty bomb when attacked. Let alone nature itself with tsunamis earthquaks etc. And then there is the waist.


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## ThomasP (May 16, 2022)

True as to the dirty bomb if attacked.

But the latest nuclear plant designs (some of which are online already in smaller scales) are basically earthquake and Tsunami proof in terms of melt-downs and containment failures.

And although the waste is a problem, it is containable.


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## ThomasP (May 16, 2022)

Interesting bit that I missed at the time:

"Russia's top diplomat said his country is not presenting the US with any "ultimatums", but will not accept "endless" talks either on its demands for legally binding pledges that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation will halt further expansion and withdraw forces to the positions it held in 1997."

From a 28 December 2021 Bloomberg article:
"No ultimatums, Russia promises on pre-Nato meeting parly with US"

So I went back and looked at some stuff from the time (pre-1997) and ran across this speech by the NATO Secretary General in 1996:
"NATO Address by Secretary General of NATO - 4 Nov. 1996"

Kind of paints an interesting contrast to today's views/statements of the various parties.

Link to the Wiki article on continuing enlargement of NATO:

"Enlargement of NATO - Wikipedia"

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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> True as to the dirty bomb if attacked.
> 
> But the latest nuclear plant designs (some of which are online already in smaller scales) are basically earthquake and Tsunami proof in terms of melt-downs and containment failures.
> 
> And although the waste is a problem, it is containable.


Yes the Titanic was unsinkable and Fukushima was ... you get my drift. Whenever i am told something potentially is build beyond disaster i get worried. It is not a bread toaster. Mind you i am not against nuke plants just carefull.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Why provoke a nuclear war? The stakes are too high. *We *have no business putting US troops on Russia’s border. Nor risking US troops on countries that were not part of the initial group of treaty nations.


By using the pronoun *we *I understand you are a US citizen. Here is a gentle reminder for my fellow Americans.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> By using the pronoun *we *I understand you are a US citizen. Here is a gentle reminder for my fellow Americans.
> View attachment 668862


So was Sonoma County.









Fort Ross, California - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## WARSPITER (May 16, 2022)

Fukushima is a good example of a properly built nuclear power station. Although there was an earthquake, a large Tsunami, a diesel driven water
pump to supply backup cooling that failed as the fuel tank was washed away, the plant itself did not give off any radiation due to having a proper dome system.

No deaths from the plant have been recorded, unlike Chernobyl which was built mainly to produce Plutonium and had no dome.

The older type of reactor - light water cooled, only uses about 4% of the fissile material. The newer types which reuse material and can be fed older waste
as well are far more efficient which means less waste.

I too would prefer a working solution in the form of fusion but the reactor would itself be a problem as it fuses itself while reacting - slight problem to solve.

Also, when waste is looked at - radioactive waste is around 250,000 tons worldwide but can be reused in newer type reactors which is a good thing.

Compare this to the production of solar panels where Lead, Cadmium, and Pure Chromium are fused in which all degrade over time and cannot be
dumped into landfill when they are no longer usable. Japan has estimated this will give them 800,000 tons of toxic waste over time - remembering that
the half life of lead and cadmium is a fair while.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 16, 2022)

Some drone action.

That is what i call precision bombing, or just lucky shot, lol.


Ukrainian drone doping grenades on a T72, until it gets blasted away by tank exploding.


Of couse Russians also use drones, aparently with less stellar results.

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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> not give off any radiation




You joking right? Fukushima nuclear disaster - Wikipedia

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Some drone action.
> 
> That is what i call precision bombing, or just lucky shot, lol.
> 
> ...



Again you’re just posting unsubstantiated war porn from Twitter. If you read the comments under those tweets you’ll see some credible analysis that these are fakes. Why are you taking these at face value and proliferating them online? Are you just trolling for Likes and Winners? 

Here‘s a tip, question everything you see, hear and read, always ask why am I seeing this, what did the poster intend? I want them to win, but the Ukrainians (and their supporters) are just as good as the Russians in making fake vids, twisting the story to support their positions, etc.

The best vids to post are those from the established media, as they’re responsible for confirming the accuracy of what is being portrayed. I think we’ve heard this before…. 

How to avoid falling for and spreading misinformation about Ukraine

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## WARSPITER (May 16, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> You joking right? Fukushima nuclear disaster - Wikipedia


As in levels seen at Chernobyl.


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## special ed (May 16, 2022)

Although way off topic, Re: the shortages in V.N., one day I went to a small one man shop where I had bought old magazines (WW2) and found the man sitting on the floor packaging .22cal. rifle cleaning kits from Sears and he was surrounded by bundles of black socks. This was early in the war when the M-16 rifle was introduced with out cleaning gear as it was "unneeded". Then some Pentagon genius changed the ammunition and a pull through cord cleaning device was issued to prevent the carbon/crud build up. The shop man's younger brother was in country and his squad was plagued with jams. He was sending 13 .22 cal kits and 13 bundles of socks per his brother's request.

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## syscom3 (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> By using the pronoun *we *I understand you are a US citizen. Here is a gentle reminder for my fellow Americans.
> View attachment 668862


Stupid.


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## buffnut453 (May 16, 2022)

It's Monday so it's time for the weekly plethora of whiny-bitchism from Putin and his cronies...and the usual litany of unsubstantiated claims.

First up is Putin talking about Ukrainian biological weapons development. Naturally, none of these documents have been published so there's no way to verify the claims. Interestingly, this seems more like a retroactive statement to justify Russian actions to-date rather than any new claim that Putin might use as justification for further escalation or, worse, employment of more extreme measures in Ukraine.

_During Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow had obtained "documentary evidence of components of biological weapons being essentially created" near Russia's borders, he told the summit of the Russia-led security bloc CSTO.
He added "possible methods and mechanisms of destabilising the epidemiological situation in post-Soviet space were being worked on".
The BBC is unable to independently verify those claims.
Putin added the CSTO was planning a "series of joint exercises in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the autumn"._


Then there's Peskov whining about Finland and Sweden potentially joining NATO:

_Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said Russia was closely watching Sweden and Finland's bids to join Nato, adding that he was convinced that their accession would not strengthen the security of Europe.
"This is a serious issue, an issue that raises our concern, and we will follow very carefully," he said.
Peskov also pointed out that in comparison with Ukraine, Russia did not have any territorial disputes with Finland or Sweden.
Earlier, Russia's deputy foreign minister said Sweden and Finland's plan to join the military alliance is a mistake that would have far-reaching consequences.
"They should have no illusions that we will simply put up with it - and nor should Brussels, Washington and other Nato capitals. The general level of military tension will rise, predictability in this sphere will decrease," Sergei Ryabkov told the state RIA Novosti news agency.
Sweden is expected to make a formal decision on its application to join the military alliance today. The country's parliament is currently debating the potential membership bid. Finland has also confirmed it will apply to join Nato._


Interestingly, Putin's comments about Finland and Sweden seems more nuanced. He's talking about "expansion of military infrastructure on their territory" which may offer some room for the West to use similar language to assure Moscow that incorporation of Finland and Sweden into NATO won't represent an increase in threat to Russia. For example, if no non-Finnish forces deploy into Finland, then NATO can claim that they haven't expanded military infrastructure. I do think this is a case where we need to listen to the actual language Putin is using and respond accordingly. 

_Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia has no issue with Finland and Sweden, but that the expansion of military infrastructure on their territory would demand a reaction from Moscow.
Speaking about Nato expansion at a summit of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in the Russian capital, he says it is a problem for Russia and is in the interest of the USA.
He also says Russia needs to pay additional attention to what he says are Nato's plans to increase its global influence._


Finally, even Lukashenko's joining the conversation:

_Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has urged other members of a Russian-dominated military alliance to stand united.
He also accused the West of hoping to prolong the conflict in Ukraine in an effort to weaken Russia.
Lukashenko, speaking at a summit of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in Moscow, said "hellish sanctions" against his country and Russia could have been avoided if the group had spoken with a united voice.
"Without a united front, the collective West will build up pressure on the post-Soviet space," Lukashenko said in televised opening remarks, addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan._

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## Glider (May 16, 2022)

Personally I am still trying to get my head around this part 
_He added "possible methods and mechanisms of destabilising the epidemiological situation in post-Soviet space were being worked on"._
I admit to not understanding what this is on about, any ideas anyone?


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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> As in levels seen at Chernobyl.


Dude...plse do some reading on the subject.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Stupid.



It'd be nice if you gave a substantial answer to the replies to your previous post.

For instance, I pointed out that if we take your point at face value, then what you are saying is that a country has the right to dictate the foreign policy of a weaker nation, under the threat of invasion. Is that actually something you'd support?

Ukraine has the right to determine its foreign policy for itself. NATO hasn't (yet, lol) extended an invitation for Ukraine to join, and indeed had agreed to Ukraine remaining non-NATO. So -- how exactly is this NATO's fault?

If you pull a gun on me and demand my money, and I refuse, does that give you the right to shoot me?

I find your view, uh, _curious_, to say the least.

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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> Personally I am still trying to get my head around this part
> _He added "possible methods and mechanisms of destabilising the epidemiological situation in post-Soviet space were being worked on"._
> I admit to not understanding what this is on about, any ideas anyone?


Working on Bio-genetic developments to create additional or to increase infections onto known/existing diseases.
IIRC that article or similar "news" also appeared in the media (worldwide) in regards to Covid-19


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## WARSPITER (May 16, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Dude...plse do some reading on the subject.


I have and the radiation levels were not high enough to be considered dangerous. Nuclear power is shunned by many but is cheap to run 
and relatively safe.

My point in all this is Europe needs to start now on reliable alternatives to power requirements and nuclear should be on the list.


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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If you pull a gun on me and demand my money, and I refuse, does that give you the right to shoot me?


From the viewpoint of the hardworking and fair assailant - yes sure.
After all he was fair enough to give you an option - another will shoot you first and then take your wallet and your lizard skin Cowboy boots. (Sorry I just couldn't resist)

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> My point in all this is Europe needs to start now on reliable alternatives to power requirements and nuclear should be on the list.


I skipped all the bickering above but this comment I agree with. Really, Europe doesn't have a choice, as they don't have domestic energy reserves to otherwise breakaway from Russia.


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## buffnut453 (May 16, 2022)

Norway, Iceland and Denmark express support for Sweden and Finland. This follows on from Britain's agreement to provide collective defence support to Finland and Sweden in the interim until their NATO membership is confirmed:

_Norway, Denmark and Iceland issued a joint pledge to their "Nordic neighbours", offering them support should they come under attack before their respective applications have been processed.

Jonas Gahr Stoere, Norway's prime minister, said in a statement: "Together with Denmark and Iceland, Norway stands ready to assist its Nordic neighbours by all means necessary should they be the victim of aggression on their territory before obtaining Nato membership."_

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## Greg Boeser (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> One bright spark told me a while ago that instead of killing whales we should just tranquillise them and then use liposuction to make
> it a renewable resource operation.


We could use that technique on Walmart shoppers.

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So was Sonoma County.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not Sonoma County, just Fort Ross - the area of modern Somona County was actually part of Imperial Spain's Alta California territory.

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## syscom3 (May 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> Then why does the USA have nuclear weapons? It's to stop the bear attacking it.
> If we follow your logic, the risk is too high so why not just surrender.
> 
> If you lived in Sweden or Finland and had seen Russian break every agreement its ever signed, attack every civilian target with almost every weapon at its disposal, lay waste to major cities, terrorise the people in the area's its captured with every conceivable atrocity and know that the same could easily happen to you. What would you do?
> ...





Thumpalumpacus said:


> It'd be nice if you gave a substantial answer to the replies to your previous post.
> 
> For instance, I pointed out that if we take your point at face value, then what you are saying is that a country has the right to dictate the foreign policy of a weaker nation, under the threat of invasion. Is that actually something you'd support?
> 
> ...


Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.

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## swampyankee (May 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> QdI understand whale oil is renewable.


So was passenger pigeon meat until they were hunted faster than they could reproduce.


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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

In regards to Finland and Sweden joining NATO and thus becoming "militarized" - I'm fairly sure that both Nations currently have capable militaries.
Even Sweden's current SAAB fighters are capable of interfacing with NATO systems amd both nations have participated in joint exercises with NATO nations in the past.

Stating that becoming members of NATO makes them a threat to Russia is just an age-old whine dripping out of Moscow.

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## buffnut453 (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.



No it wouldn't. From 1994, Russia vouchsafed Ukrainian territorial integrity. Then came the 2014 elections in Ukraine which brought in a new government that didn't align with what Moscow wanted. At that stage, Ukraine was entirely neutral and yet Russia invaded, took over Crimea, and fomented conflict in the Donbas. 

If neutrality didn't protect Ukraine in 2014, why would it work in 2022?

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

Ukrainians claim to be on the border!



Assuming this is actual combat footage, good stuff...

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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I have and the radiation levels were not high enough to be considered dangerous. Nuclear power is shunned by many but is cheap to run
> and relatively safe.
> 
> My point in all this is Europe needs to start now on reliable alternatives to power requirements and nuclear should be on the list.


Nuke power is safe in a closed environment. Fukushima is now far from safe. Go off the road into 25 meters and levels rise more then is safe.

Again i am not against nuke power. But i think in the day and age it is a too easy target. And it is not cheap. Waist is a bitch and will cost us a long time. Is it better then coal power or other? I think it is. But then there is Putin.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.



Ukraine only abandoned neutrality in Dec 2014, _after_ Russia invaded them and seized Crimea. Perhaps you should read up up on the history of this conflict.

ETA -- Further to this:

_*Ukraine pledged neutrality when it gained independence in 1991, but changed tack after Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.* Ukraine's parliament voted by a large majority to amend the constitution and made membership in the European Union and in NATO into a state objective.

But not only Russia wants to prevent this. NATO has consistently refused the application, fearing this would trigger a military confrontation with Russia. And now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has admitted that the goal of joining NATO is probably unattainable._









Ukraine: Could neutrality really be an option? | DW | 25.03.2022


Russia has demanded that Ukraine rule out NATO membership. But even neutral countries in Europe are now considering joining the military alliance.




www.dw.com





[Emphasis added -- Thump]

So let's see why you believe this has everything backwards. What're the sources you're relying upon?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.



Are you naive enough to actually believe that?

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Nuke power is safe in a closed environment. Fukushima is now far from safe. Go off the road into 25 meters and levels rise more then is safe.
> 
> Again i am not against nuke power. But i think in the day and age it is a too easy target. And it is not cheap. Waist is a bitch and will cost us a long time. Is it better then coal power or other? I think it is. But then there is Putin.


What's the alternative for Europe? I suppose Norway and Scotland have a lot of oil, but I'm not sure about gas. One place that does have gas is Ukraine. Once the war's over, switch over the Ukrainian gas as part of the rebuilding process. Natural gas in Ukraine - Wikipedia

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## Crimea_River (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.



Ah yes, "Peace in our time".....

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

Posted before, but still informative regarding thw relationship between NATO and the Ukraine from 1991 onward.









Relations with Ukraine


A strong, independent Ukraine is vital for the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea...




www.nato.int

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## Dimlee (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.


Facepalm is not enough here...

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## Dimlee (May 16, 2022)

Another video of Brimstone in the ground to ground role. Tests, probably.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

I think someone here has too much Tucker Carlson exposure. It’s the only thing that explains the belief that Ukraine is at fault for being invaded.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think someone here has too much Tucker Carlson exposure. It’s the only thing that explains the belief that Ukraine is at fault for being invaded.



The victim-blaming definitely smacks of Russian apologetics, but that's why I'd like to see 

 syscom3
's sources for this claim of his.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The best vids to post are those from the established media, as they’re responsible for confirming the accuracy of what is being portrayed. I think we’ve heard this before….


Don't believe established media either. 

Established media massively published news of Admiral Makarov being hit/sunk. Some even published the fake video generated with a videogame.








False report that Russian frigate hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles


The vessel the Admiral Makarov was reportedly struck near Snake Island by Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship missiles.




www.jpost.com





Established media also published news of Vsevolod Bobrov being on fire. Which also resulted to be false. Incidentally the first evidences showing it was not true emerged on twitter.

If you search for Vsevolod Bobrov still plenty of news about it being on fire, but very few about it not being true.


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## Denniss (May 16, 2022)

Does not rule out a sisterships with an 'updated' name, anything is possible in this war and propaganda from both sides.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Don't believe established media either.
> 
> Established media massively published news of Admiral Makarov being hit/sunk.


Not what I read. The established media either ignored the stories or published along the lines of the cruiser Admiral Makarov has "reportedly" been sunk.

Here's Forbes on May 6th, for example.

_" there were reports the Ukrainians had landed a blow with a Neptune and the frigate was on fire. There was no immediate hard evidence to back up the rumors, although one blurry video that circulated online does seem to depict a warship in flames. *The video could be a fake*."_

And here's the BBC.

_"A Russian warship, Admiral Makarov, has been hit by a Ukrainian Neptune missile in the Black Sea and has been badly damaged, according to an *unconfirmed* report by a local website in Odesa. Western defence officials said they* had not seen anything that confirms* the frigate has been hit."_

Once the sinking was found to be a hoax or at best a misunderstanding the media reported it as such. For example, here's Forbes again three days later on May 9th.

_"commercial satellite imagery seems to confirm that last week's rumors about a successful Ukrainian attack on Admiral Makarov were just that—rumors. The frigate survives."_

You won't get that level of fact checking and almost contrition from Twitter posters. You do you, I'm not a Mod here, but I would argue that proliferation of misinformation, including purported combat footage from Twitter does no one any good. Look at how the Ghost of Kyiv debacle made so many people look ridiculous, including those here.









Ukraine admits the 'Ghost of Kyiv' isn't real, but the myth was potent for a reason


Last weekend, the Ukrainian Air Force Command admitted the pilot was a “superhero legend whose character was created by Ukrainians.”




www.nbcnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

_STOCKHOLM/KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin appeared to climb down on Monday from Russia's objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying Moscow had no issues with them entering the U.S.-led military alliance they now aim to join in reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.

Though the Russian leader said Moscow would take action if NATO were to move more troops or hardware onto the territory of its new members - steps Finland and Sweden have both already ruled out - he said NATO's expansion itself was not a threat.

"As far as expansion goes, including new members Finland and Sweden, Russia has no problems with these states - none. And so in this sense there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion to include these countries," Putin said.

The comments appeared to mark a major reversal of Russian policy. For decades, Moscow has cast NATO's expansion to include new members as a direct threat to Russia's security, including citing it as a justification for the invasion of Ukraine itself.

Just hours before Putin spoke, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Finland and Sweden were making a mistake that would have far-reaching consequences: "They should have no illusions that we will simply put up with it."

Putin's own spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked last Thursday if Finland joining NATO was a threat to Russia, had said: "Definitely. NATO expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure."

But faced with the prospect that his own actions may cause the very expansion of NATO he had opposed, Putin appears to have decided not to object directly.

He did however say NATO enlargement was being used by the United States in an "aggressive" way to aggravate an already difficult global security situation, and that Russia would respond if the alliance moves weapons or troops forward.

"The expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response. What that (response) will be - we will see what threats are created for us," Putin said. "Problems are being created for no reason at all. We shall react accordingly."_









Ukrainian force begins evacuating from last Mariupol stronghold


Troops holed up in the last Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol began evacuating on Monday, appearing to cede control of the once prosperous city to Russia after months of bombardment.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You won't get that level of fact checking and almost contrition from Twitter posters.



This is why I only post sources like Reuters or The Hill which either vet and name their sources, or include a caveat in their articles if the report is not confirmed.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _STOCKHOLM/KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin appeared to climb down on Monday from Russia's objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying Moscow had no issues with them entering the U.S.-led military alliance they now aim to join in reaction to his invasion of Ukraine._


With Sweden now in NATO I wonder if there's more opportunities to sell Gripens? Everyone wants F-35s now, but they may be hard to come by.

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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With Sweden now in NATO I wonder if there's more opportunities to sell Gripens? Everyone wants F-35s now, but they may be hard to come by.



They are not yet in NATO
There is nothing stopping nations in NATO now from buying Gripens...and yet they haven't
If anything F-35s will be easier than Gripens to come by.


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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

Ukrainian monastery cares for the war's forgotten felines


A monastery in the Ukrainian city of Odesa opens its doors to hundreds of cats abandoned or injured amid the war with Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With Sweden now in NATO I wonder if there's more opportunities to sell Gripens? Everyone wants F-35s now, but they may be hard to come by.



Yeah, I'm not sure how much Lockheed can spool up the production line much faster, perhaps 

 FLYBOYJ
has some insight? Is the Gripen compatible with current NATO missiles? If so, and being the more-affordable of the two, I'd imagine it would seem a fair alternative though obviously less capable.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah, I'm not sure how much Lockheed can spool up the production line much faster, perhaps
> 
> FLYBOYJ
> has some insight? *Is the Gripen compatible with current NATO missiles?* If so, and being the more-affordable of the two, I'd imagine it would seem a fair alternative though obviously less capable.


Some NATO countries already use Gripen








Why Gripen is an Ideal Choice for NATO Missions | Stories | Saab


The most important requirement for a NATO mission fighter is the ability to perform Quick Reaction Alert missions.




www.saab.com




Gripen uses the same 27mm canon than Eurofighter.
It has been integrated with AIM-120, AIM-9, IRIS-T or Meteor
For air to ground Brimstone AGM-65 or Taurus are some examples

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

The JAS 39C is fully NATO interopretative.

But we need to keep in mind, that the Gripen is a multi-role fighter, where the F-35 is a multi-role combat platform.

The F-35 is often referred to as a "fighter" or a "multi-role" fighter, but it's capabilities (and designed function) go well beyond those labels.

The Gripen would be able to perform the air superiority role (like the F-22) in operations, allowing the F-35 to conduct it's strike missions, so that is definately a plus, but I don't expect the Gripen to be able to "replace" the F-35's mission profile.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With Sweden now in NATO I wonder if there's more opportunities to sell Gripens? Everyone wants F-35s now, but they may be hard to come by.



They have applied to join NATO, they have not been admitted. 

Most likely they certainly will be, but its not a done deal yet.

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## Snautzer01 (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What's the alternative for Europe? I suppose Norway and Scotland have a lot of oil, but I'm not sure about gas. One place that does have gas is Ukraine. Once the war's over, switch over the Ukrainian gas as part of the rebuilding process. Natural gas in Ukraine - Wikipedia


Ohh there is more then enough natural gas in the east. Libia i.g. Oil fields very very rich in Suriname. Takes some time but it is there. Europe took suprisinly the easy way. Not anymore i think.


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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Some NATO countries already use Gripen


 A total of 28, all leased from Sweden.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Some NATO countries already use Gripen
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the info, and forgive my ignorance.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The JAS 39C is fully NATO interopretative.
> 
> But we need to keep in mind, that the Gripen is a multi-role fighter, where the F-35 is a multi-role combat platform.
> 
> ...



The big thing the F-35 brings to the table, to my thinking, is its ability to act as an AWACS as well as its active combat roles. But for some countries in NATO perhaps they can rely upon allies and don't need the extra capability.


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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah, I'm not sure how much Lockheed can spool up the production line much faster, perhaps
> 
> FLYBOYJ
> has some insight?


LM is putting out about 150 F-35s a year right now, compared to the 270+ total Gripen production.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Is the Gripen compatible with current NATO missiles?


Yes


Thumpalumpacus said:


> If so, and being the more-affordable of the two, I'd imagine it would seem a fair alternative though obviously less capable.


What makes you think Gripen is more affordable? 









F-35 cheaper than the Gripen?


The Royal Thai Air Force is considering the acquisition of new fighter aircraft, and favors the Lockheed Martin F-35. Among the arguments, in addition to its ad




www.aviacionline.com

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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The big thing the F-35 brings to the table, to my thinking, is its ability to act as an AWACS as well as its active combat roles.


There's a lot more than that - I don't think people realise just how far ahead the F-35 is especially when it comes to the sensors, sensor fusion, data sharing etc. I sometimes use the analogy of comparing a 1980s walkman vs a iPhone. Sure both can play music but for the iPhone there's a hell of a lot more that wasn't even considered when the walkman was in use.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> What makes you think Gripen is more affordable?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I had assumed that the materials and unit cost of a stealth aircraft would be more expensive. I'm surprised the Gripen is that costly.

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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

Ah but volume helps bring down the cost per unit. So far there are roughly 800 odd F-35s vs less than 300 Gripens. In the future we will see 3000+ vs <300

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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The victim-blaming definitely smacks of Russian apologetics, but that's why I'd like to see @syscom3's sources for this claim of his.


I think you guys are a bit harsh in regards to *syscom3* post. I don't see him being a Russian apologetic for stating his concern or personal opinion on this matter.

1.As I had mentioned already many times - anyone who has studied Putin, is fully aware about his Czarist agenda/policy. (meaning that Putin will not refrain from war options in 
order to persue his agenda).
2. For Putin this "special operation" is not just about the Czar's empire but also the result of a confrontation between a supporter/believer of an autocratic system contra democracy
and a war about ideologies bear's the significant risk of a wider spreading war right down to nuclear weapons. 

3. Ukraine and NATO have been "in touch" since 1991 and have steadily increased their cooperation since then - not just since 2014/15
4. Putin attacked/occupied Crimea, since according to his point of view it was "given" as an "honor-award" from the Soviet-union to the former Soviet-republic of Ukraine, and therefore does not constitute a natural/historic part of the former Soviet-republic Ukraine - but is a territorial gain of czarist Russia during it's expansion in the 18th century. 
Since his annexation of Crimea, there was ample time to institute hard and crippling sanctions against Russia and to convey this issue to the UN (That is what the UN is for, not just to
decide upon who resides in what UN council)
5. Putin "operated" in the e.g. Donbass and Luhansk regions just as the USA did in Honduras, Nicaragua, Columbia, etc. etc. right up to the failed Bay of pigs, to Allende in Chile to Iran
and so on.... (so I believe no one needs to point fingers at each other in the messy regions of covert and supporting revolutions etc. business) 
6. NATO was clearly aware about Putin's stance towards the already progressing NATO eastward expansion. 

Having said that, there were two options for NATO and the Ukraine latest since 2019, a clever diplomatic one, or a rather stupid/arrogant one - unfortunately NATO and Ukraine opted for the latter one.
And now since February 2022 we have to deal with the result of their preferred option. - the only question that remains to me is: up to what extend?


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## GTX (May 16, 2022)

A strategic window of opportunity is opening for Ukraine


Depending on the short-term decisions of the Ukrainian President and his military high command, we may witness a significant turning point in the war in the coming weeks, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think you guys are a bit harsh in regards to *syscom3* post. I don't see him being a Russian apologetic for stating his concern or personal opinion on this matter.



I'm not being harsh on him. I'm asking him for his historical perspective, with backing, and pointing out that his "arguments", paltry as they are, echo Kremlin apologetics. Russia invaded Ukraine before Ukraine abandoned neutrality. This is a fact.

That is not harsh. That's plain-spoken. He has every opportunity to clear up any misunderstanding I might be experiencing, and I'll look forward to him doing so.

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## SaparotRob (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So was Sonoma County.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We better pull our forces out of Northern California so as not to upset anyone.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> We better pull our forces out of Northern California so as not to upset anyone.



And leave all that Humboldt to depredating invaders?!

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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ....Russia invaded Ukraine before Ukraine abandoned neutrality. This is a fact.


What time line, or which "invasion" are you referring to?


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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Erdogan stated:

_"First of all, we would not say 'yes' to those who impose sanctions on Turkey joining NATO, which is a security organization. Because then NATO would not remain a security organization anymore, it becomes a place where representatives of the terror concentrate," Erdogan said. _

I am right now laughing my head off - what on earth could wish Putin more for, then such a statement?

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## Glider (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Working on Bio-genetic developments to create additional or to increase infections onto known/existing diseases.
> IIRC that article or similar "news" also appeared in the media (worldwide) in regards to Covid-19


Thanks, much appreciated


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> _What time line, or which "invasion" are you referring to?_



When Russia first invaded Ukrainian territory, in 2014. I should have thought that was obvious, given my post upthread about exactly that. Perhaps you should read the discussion for detail rather than asking folks to repeat themselves for your benefit.

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## SaparotRob (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And leave all that Humboldt to depredating invaders?!


I blame my foolish post on this really nasty head cold I have. That's why I've been kind of quiet and not correcting everyone else's posts.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I blame my foolish post on this really nasty head cold I have. That's why I've been kind of quiet and not correcting everyone else's posts.



Get well soon, bud.

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## SaparotRob (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Erdogan stated:
> 
> _"First of all, we would not say 'yes' to those who impose sanctions on Turkey joining NATO, which is a security organization. Because then NATO would not remain a security organization anymore, it becomes a place where representatives of the terror concentrate," Erdogan said. _
> 
> I am right now laughing my head off - what on earth could wish Putin more for, then such a statement?


President Zelenskyy saying "Maybe I was wrong about this whole thing, comrade." ?

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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> When Russia first invaded Ukrainian territory, in 2014. I should have thought that was obvious, given my post upthread about exactly that. Perhaps you should read the discussion for detail rather than asking folks to repeat themselves for your benefit.



Dialogue and cooperation started when newly independent Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council* (1991) *and the Partnership for Peace programme *(1994)*.
Relations were strengthened with the signing of the *1997* Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, which established the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) to take cooperation forward.
Since *2009,* the NUC has overseen Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration process, including reforms under the Annual National Programme (ANP).
Cooperation has deepened over time and is mutually beneficial, with Ukraine actively contributing to NATO-led operations and missions.
Priority is given to support for comprehensive reform in the security and defence sector, which is vital for Ukraine's democratic development and for strengthening its ability to defend itself.
So much for your "facts" - maybe you should really read up the "facts"
And again:
there were two options for NATO and the Ukraine *latest *since 2019, a clever diplomatic one, or a rather stupid/arrogant one - unfortunately NATO and Ukraine opted for the latter one.
And now since February 2022 we have to deal with the result of their preferred option.


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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Because in 1452 the Pope didn't have an army unlike 50 years later under Cesare Borgia. The Pope however did appeal towards Christianity for others to aid Constantinople.
> However they were too occupied fighting each other. Genoa (mightiest naval power in the Med) and Venice were too much occupied finding out if trade might improve with the Ottomans upon them maybe eliminating their main trading rival Constantinople. Only Venice (when it was too late) send a fleet and troops.


True. Maybe Britain and Allies should have kept the place in 1919.









Occupation of Constantinople - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org













Armistice of Mudanya - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Too bad Britain was too weak after the First World War. Had Britain controlled Constantinople along with Suez and Gibraltar the Mediterranean would have looked very different a hundred years on.

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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Priority is given to support for comprehensive reform in the security and defence sector, which is vital for Ukraine's democratic development and for strengthening its ability to defend itself.


And this, right here, is exactly what Putin did not want.

So when the Ukrainians ousted Putin's puppet and his corrupt posse in 2014, Russia invaded and took the Crimea and Donbas.

One simply cannot have a nation that wants to be self sufficient, self determining and free to think for itself.

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## Greg Boeser (May 16, 2022)

Keep. Mouth. 🤐!!!!!!!
There. I did it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Keep. Mouth. 🤐!!!!!!!
> There. I did it.



Unless you are quoting Moscow Times “facts.” Then its ok comrade.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So when the Ukrainians ousted Putin's puppet and his corrupt posse in 2014, Russia invaded and took the Crimea and Donbas.


Whatever happened to Yulia Tymoshenko? There's a little on her recent activities during the invasion on Wikipedia.


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## GrauGeist (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Whatever happened to Yulia Tymoshenko? There's a little on her recent activities during the invasion on Wikipedia.


I think she's currently a member of parliament.

Interestingly enough, after she lost the presidential election to Yanukovych in 2010, he had her arrested.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Interestingly enough, after she lost the presidential election to Yanukovych in 2010, he had her arrested.


I'm sure Yulia and Zelensky would like to return the favour.


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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> From the viewpoint of the hardworking and fair assailant - yes sure.



I think you just described what Putin thinks he is.

We know better

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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _STOCKHOLM/KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin appeared to climb down on Monday from Russia's objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying Moscow had no issues with them entering the U.S.-led military alliance they now aim to join in reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> Though the Russian leader said Moscow would take action if NATO were to move more troops or hardware onto the territory of its new members - steps Finland and Sweden have both already ruled out - he said NATO's expansion itself was not a threat.
> 
> ...



Again I would suspect China has leaned on Putin like they did over his threat to use Nukes. China wants to rule a complete world - not a nuclear wasted world so I suspect that they also want Russia as a viable client - not a damaged client that they have to assist in recovering.

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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They have applied to join NATO, they have not been admitted.
> 
> Most likely they certainly will be, but its not a done deal yet.



Turkey has said it will veto Sweden and Finland so unless they change their mind it is dead in the water


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## JDCAVE (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> There is surplus gas in Aus and Canada though the Chinese and Japanese take a large part of it. That unfortunately means that Italy would have to outbid them on the open market.


The infrastructure to export Cdn LNG really isn’t in place right now. There was big plans several years ago but with the depressed market at the time it stalled.


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## MiTasol (May 16, 2022)

Thanks for that. Aus is exporting to a lot of Asia at present so adding the EU will probably be more a shortage of ships than a shortage of facilities at this end. And facilities can be ramped up quicker than LNG tankers


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## buffnut453 (May 16, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> And again:
> there were two options for NATO and the Ukraine *latest *since 2019, a clever diplomatic one, or a rather stupid/arrogant one - unfortunately NATO and Ukraine opted for the latter one.
> And now since February 2022 we have to deal with the result of their preferred option.



I'm sorry but "the result of their preferred option" should NOT have required the invasion of Ukraine. NOTHING in any prior engagements between Ukraine and the west justifies Russia's actions. 

I'd dearly love to know what this "clever diplomatic" solution looked like because it sounds an awful lot like Ukraine bowing to Russia's wishes...and that's EXACTLY what Ukraine is fighting for today. Unless you don't believe that sovereign nations should be able to make their own decisions and chart their own destinies?

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## Crimea_River (May 16, 2022)

JDCAVE said:


> The infrastructure to export Cdn LNG really isn’t in place right now. There was big plans several years ago but with the depressed market at the time it stalled.


The LNG Canada facility in Kitimat BC has been moving ahead full steam and I understand it will be on stream some time next year or early 2024









Arrival of large module represents next phase for LNG Canada project construction


A critical piece of infrastructure more than 10 storeys high has arrived at the LNG Canada project site in Kitimat, B.C., in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation, marking another phase in construction activities at our facility. Learn more.




www.lngcanada.ca





There have been several projects on the east coast that have been considered since at least the early 2000's. Some have come and gone but some have seen interest resurrected recently for obvious reasons. Fickle politics, aboriginal land claims, and regulatory hurdles have all conspired against such projects over the years leaving the LNG Canada project the only one moving ahead at this time.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Turkey has said it will veto Sweden and Finland so unless they change their mind it is dead in the water



Why am I not surprised?


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## Zipper730 (May 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> _He added "possible methods and mechanisms of destabilising the epidemiological situation in post-Soviet space were being worked on"._
> I admit to not understanding what this is on about, any ideas anyone?


Possibility 1: Possible methods of producing an epidemiological disaster in enemy nations (i.e. biological warfare).
Possibility 2: They're claiming the Ukrainians were developing a bioweapons capability and seek to destroy said ability.


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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Turkey has said it will veto Sweden and Finland so unless they change their mind it is dead in the water


If I were Sweden and Finland I’d seize the opportunity to toss any Kurdish terror organizations and their supporters back to Kurdistan or to Istanbul so that their new NATO ally can deal with them.



Turkey to Sweden, Finland: Kick out Kurdish terrorist groups, or we'll block you from NATO

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## gumbyk (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> Dont go looking for a war. The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.


For 6 months...

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

syscom3 said:


> The Ukraine only had to agree to be neutral. That would have been the end of it.


Rubbish. It’s not “The” Ukraine any more than it’s The Russia. You’re either espousing or fallen for the Russian tropes.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If I were Sweden and Finland I’d seize the opportunity to toss any Kurdish terror organizations and their supporters back to Kurdistan or to Istanbul so that their new NATO ally can deal with them.
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey to Sweden, Finland: Kick out Kurdish terrorist groups, or we'll block you from NATO




Are they really terror organization? So they can be brutally murdered? 

I spent quite a bit of time in Kurdistan and at KDP headquarters near Irbel. They didn’t seem very “terroristy” to me.

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## Admiral Beez (May 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Are they really terror organization?


The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization by Canada. But who knows, had we caught him George Washington would have been strung up as a terrorist leader, and now he’s a beloved founder the Free world. I don’t see why Finland and Sweden can’t expel any Kurdish “freedom“ organizations to safety in Kurdistan.

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## wlewisiii (May 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Rubbish. It’s not “The” Ukraine any more than it’s The Russia. You’re either espousing or fallen for the Russian tropes.


I'm thinking the troll needs to be ignored. He's pushing pure Putin apologia.

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## wlewisiii (May 16, 2022)

Ah, there is an ignore button. First time I've needed it.

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## SaparotRob (May 16, 2022)

I still think we’re being pranked.

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## Jagdflieger (May 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> ....I'd dearly love to know what this "clever diplomatic" solution looked like....


Thump's example of the assailant holding a gun and demanding his wallet - is a great example.
We cannot expect that a criminal respects or acts according to our civilized expectations or interpretation towards such actions. Upon understanding that, most important is to avoid dark alleys in the first place and not to walk there on purpose in order to prove a point.

1. The UN framework has clear provisions as to how and what decides upon the "belonging" of territories (respectively the inhabitants free decision making process in such a case)
This has been executed already many times successfully were UN observers and troops ensure fair and free polls. - the same process should have been implemented in regards to Crimea
latest since 2015. Till an agreement is reached - sanction Russia until Putin respectively Russia pukes.
2. NATO and the UN vouch for the freedom of the Ukraine - making it absolutely clear that if Russia attacks Ukraine, NATO and the UN are legible to intervene militarily, in order to stress
the "resolute will" NATO and the UN or just NATO stations 3-4 divisions in e.g. Poland and Romania. In return Ukraine commit themselves towards absolute neutrality. (They can bring in military advisers from e.g. Israel, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland or whoever except from NATO members) in order to enhance the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
As for 2. at least as long as a Putin or alike rules Russia - no one knows as to who rules Russia in the future - that's why smart politics take years to work - unless one doesn't care about a war maybe happening due to stupid and rash actions.

As for Putin maybe supporting or planing to support subversive actions in other Ukraine regions - well introduce the known counter measures. And again as for 1. there is a clear UN framework to handle such actions or the inhabitants wishes.

It's all actually known, proven and very simple to do - if one wishes to do so. And is far cheaper then later having to invest a trillion $ in order to get a totally devastated country back on track - needless to mention tens of thousands of civilians not getting killed in the first place.

Due to the stuoid and rash actions by NATO, in the absolute worst case - whatever Putin can't have of the Ukraine now, he will nuke the place to the dark ages (During western heading winds) - making sure that NATO won't get any benefit out of it. Just like the criminal will shot Thump, if he won't give him his lizard skin boots.

So unless one want's to risk his life by walking into a dark alley in order to proof a point (telling the criminal to think about his action, throw away his gun and just walk of and become a better person) don't walk stupidly into a dark alley.


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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Are they really terror organization? So they can be brutally murdered?
> 
> I spent quite a bit of time in Kurdistan and at KDP headquarters near Irbel. They didn’t seem very “terroristy” to me.


According to the EU - yes.

Since the first official *ban* of the *PKK* by the German state in 1993 (then by the *USA* in 1997 and most recently by the EU in 2002),
According to Moscow news, PKK news and anyone else








The PKK Ban: A continuation of the injustice against the Kurds


Nilüfer Koç In November, many intellectuals, philosophers, lawyers, parliamentarians, writers and activists launched a campaign within the framework of the




medyanews.net







https://thehill.com/policy/defense/policy-strategy/481664-us-suspends-intelligence-gathering-program-that-targeted/


2020-2-6 · The U.S. military has halted a secret military intelligence cooperation program with Turkey that for years was used to aid Ankara in targeting the Kurdish Workers Party or PKK,......

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Dialogue and cooperation started when newly independent Ukraine joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council* (1991) *and the Partnership for Peace programme *(1994)*.
> Relations were strengthened with the signing of the *1997* Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, which established the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) to take cooperation forward.
> Since *2009,* the NUC has overseen Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration process, including reforms under the Annual National Programme (ANP).
> Cooperation has deepened over time and is mutually beneficial, with *Ukraine actively contributing to NATO-led operations and missions.*
> ...



I'd like to see a valid source for the emboldened claim you've made. Be specific: name the operations and forces involved, and the dates, and link to the source for this information, please.

That's the only point that might indicate a serious military relationship with NATO. Please support it.

Additionally, a sovereign nation has the right to determine its own foreign policy -- agree, or disagree?


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## GrauGeist (May 17, 2022)

Um...
"Western heading winds" - nope, the jet stream moves west to east, meaning fallout will head towards Russia and China. Think hard about the last nation mentioned...

This diatribe about NATO being the villain in all this is tiresome.

Let's spin the "way back" wheel for a history lesson:
The Soviet Union demanded territory from Finland because their border was too close to Leningrad.
This was because of "security concerns". Mind you, NATO didn't exist at the time, so we can't use that as a bullshit excuse.

Finland's response would be along the lines of "Soviet ship, go f**k yourself" and the Winter War was on.

Let's give this "NATO is the evil empire and the root of all problems" a rest already, FFS.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Thump's example of the assailant holding a gun and demanding his wallet - is a great example.
> We cannot expect that a criminal respects or acts according to our civilized expectations or interpretation towards such actions. Upon understanding that, most important is to avoid dark alleys in the first place and not to walk there on purpose in order to prove a point.
> 
> 1. The UN framework has clear provisions as to how and what decides upon the "belonging" of territories (respectively the inhabitants free decision making process in such a case)
> ...



It's easy to be smart after the event.

What actions could the UN take on Crimea or to protect Ukraine when Russia, as a voting member of the Security Council, has right of veto? In order for the UN to do anything requires Russia to play along...and we have plenty of history on how much Russia respects the conventions of the UN.

As for NATO, we've been around this one before. NATO does not have any mandate to protect nations who are not signatories to the agreement. Yes, NATO could, in theory, act outside its borders but that requires a mandate from the UN,...which leads us back to my previous point. It would also play right into Putin's narrative of NATO being an offensive threat to Russia.

If it's so "known, proven and simple" maybe you should run for senior office...President, Chancellor, or perhaps even UN or NATO Secretaries General.

The problem with dark alleys is that often we stumble into them before we know where they are. Unlike the scary movies, they aren't marked by dramatic music in a minor key. Human beings make mistakes or mis-steps. They misread situations and make the wrong decisions for all the right reasons. Then there's the bad people who undermine the best intentions of the good guys by finding workarounds or counters to actions. Then there's the law of unintended consequences (as Putin is learning right now). I'm afraid the LAST words I'd use to describe strategy and international relations are "known, proven and simple."

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd like to see a valid source for the emboldened claim you've made. Be specific: name the operations and forces involved, and the dates, and link to the source for this information, please.
> 
> That's the only point that might indicate a serious military relationship with NATO. Please support it.
> 
> Additionally, a sovereign nation has the right to determine its own foreign policy -- agree, or disagree?


It's from the link, given in Graugeist's post and accessible on any official NATO site.








Relations with Ukraine


A strong, independent Ukraine is vital for the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s and have since developed into one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. Since 2014, in the wake of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea...




www.nato.int

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's easy to be smart after the event.


No, it's what politicians are paid end elected to do - act before things go bad.
Any person knowledgeable with the Russian-Ukrain issue knew about this latest since 2014.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It's from the link, given in Graugeist's post and accessible on any official NATO site.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I notice you didn't answer my question.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, it's what politicians are paid end elected to do - act before things go bad.
> Any person knowledgeable with the Russian-Ukrain issue knew about this latest since 2014.



Bollocks! Politicians are paid to represent their constituents. They are far from all-knowing. 

Taking action is easy when you only have one problem to solve but, unfortunately, that's seldom the situation. Just look at all the hand-wringing across Europe about how best to wean off Russian oil and gas while struggling to respond to Putin while not escalating to nuclear war. Then there's dealing with a problem like Erdogan where EVERY other NATO member is happy for Finland and Sweden to join. Please explain how leaders see crap like that coming? 

The problems back in 2014-2015 over Ukraine were no less complex. Again, quit applying the retrospectroscope and assuming it's easy to foresee the future.

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## GrauGeist (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I notice you didn't answer my question.


He won't and he spun the hell out of several points on their page (which let the air out of his narrative, btw).

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> He won't and he spun the hell out of several points on their page (which let the air out of his narrative, btw).



It's a yes-or-no question, either he can manage something that simple or he cannot. <shrug>

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I notice you didn't answer my question.


Sorry I didn't notice that question of yours as such

Off course any sovereign nation has the right to determine it's own foreign policy - but that wasn't our topic
But you stating wrongly that there was no cooperation and interaction, but neutrality by Ukraine towards NATO before 2014 as being a "fact"


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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> As for NATO, we've been around this one before. NATO does not have any mandate to protect nations who are not signatories to the agreement. Yes, NATO could, in theory, act outside its borders but that requires a mandate from the UN,...which leads us back to my previous point.


Didn't bother Clinton and NATO in regards to Serbia at all !!! an action that was never sanctioned or endorsed by the UN








NATO’s bombing of Serbia: A tragedy in three acts


The 1999 bombing of Serbia has, to some extent, set in motion the current state of affairs between the US, NATO, and Russia




www.rt.com






buffnut453 said:


> It would also play right into Putin's narrative of NATO being an offensive threat to Russia.


Who cares about Putin's theoretical rants in 2015 ? but one (politicians) needs to make sure that he can't make them happen in e.g. February 2022


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## GrauGeist (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Didn't bother Clinton and NATO in regards to Serbia at all !!! an action that was never sanctioned or endorsed by the UN
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Explain in *clear and concise language*, why NATO was involved in Serbia.

We'll wait for your detailed explanation.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Didn't bother Clinton and NATO in regards to Serbia at all !!! an action that was never sanctioned or endorsed by the UN
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm getting tired of this merry-go-round. We've been over this before. Serbia isn't Russia and an internal civil war is not the same as an aggressive invasion of a sovereign nation. They are different situations and they require different approaches...unless, again, you think this stuff is just so easy. 




Jagdflieger said:


> Who cares about Putin's theoretical rants in 2015 ? but one (politicians) needs to make sure that he can't make them happen in e.g. February 2022



Again with the retrospectroscope. Putin's rants in 2015 were only proved to be theoretical AFTER the passage of time. When the rants were made, people had to take them at face value and make decisions based upon them.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Explain in *clear and concise language*, why NATO was involved in Serbia.
> 
> We'll wait for your detailed explanation.


Since you got your own opinions, read it up yourself


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## MiTasol (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Bollocks! *Politicians are paid to represent their constituents. * *They are far from all-knowing. *



Which is why so many people say that if we got rid of politicians and just flipped a coin on any subject we would often be better off

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## GrauGeist (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since you got your own opinions, read it up yourself


I know exactly why NATO was involved in the Serbia situation.

It was a response to an act of aggression.

What's interesting, is that you "claim" to be some sort of "advisor" and all I have seen so far, is a spectacular performance of circular propaganda bullshit.

If you're advising anyone, I pity their waste of money and time, unless you're in the employee of Russian interests.

If that's the case, please, carry on.

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## MiTasol (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Sorry I didn't notice that question of yours as such
> 
> *Off course any sovereign nation has the right to determine it's own foreign policy*



Congratulations. 

You have just confirmed that Russia is in breach of all acceptable international standards by trying to force *sovereign nations,* (such as)

Ukraine (Finland, Sweden etc) not to apply for membership of NATO, and
NATO not to accept Ukraine (and any other country Putin wants to *subjugate*) as a member, and for
Ukraine to be absorbed by Russia rather than remain a *sovereign nation,*
and therefore that all your crap is just that - crap. Solid brown coated foul smelling crap at that.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Sorry I didn't notice that question of yours as such
> 
> Off course any sovereign nation has the right to determine it's own foreign policy - but that wasn't our topic
> But you stating wrongly that there was no cooperation and interaction, but neutrality by Ukraine towards NATO before 2014 as being a "fact"



So if a sovereign nation has the right to decide its own foreign policy, and decides to engage with cooperative engagements with whom it desires on a peaceful basis, is that a justification for another nation to invade it?

And that is indeed our topic, because you are here trying to explain Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which devolves directly upon Ukraine's willingness to cooperate with NATO while spurning Russia. That is one of Putin's prime justifications for his country's, ahem, not-an-invasion.

Further, I did not write that there was no cooperation nor interaction, simply that the nature of such interactions did not void Ukraine's neutrality.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> So if a sovereign nation has the right to decide its own foreign policy, and decides to engage with cooperative engagements with whom it desires on a peaceful basis, is that a justification for another nation to invade it?
> 
> And that is indeed our topic, because you are here trying to explain Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which devolves directly upon Ukraine's willingness to cooperate with NATO while spurning Russia. That is one of Putin's prime justification for his country's, ahem, not-an-invasion.
> 
> Further, I did not write that there was no cooperation nor interaction, simply that the nature of such interactions did not void Ukraine's neutrality.



Very well said. How is a nation supposed to remain neutral when, on the one hand, it sees an effective, defensive alliance based on rule of law and democratic values, while on the other it sees a dictatorship that's seeking to remove the nation's choice and freedom? I can't see any nation in the world viewing those polar opposites as somehow being of equivalent value and meriting the same response or equal treatment.

Remaining neutral does not mean one cannot have opinions and desires in a particular direction. Look at Sweden and Finland. Up until February 2022, both were staunchly neutral and yet both were democratic members of the EU. On the spectrum of democracy-vs-dictatorship, that's hardly neutral. The simple fact is Putin didn't like the direction Ukraine wanted to take, and so he attacked. There's no way to appease such aggression because Putin will just demand further concessions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Very well said. How is a nation supposed to remain neutral when, on the one hand, it sees an effective, defensive alliance based on rule of law and democratic values, while on the other it sees a dictatorship that's seeking to remove the nation's choice and freedom? I can't see any nation in the world viewing those polar opposites as somehow being of equivalent value and meriting the same response.



My view is that so long as a nation doesn't take action against another nations, nor does it join an enemy bloc of that nation, nor does it violate the terms it has agreed upon about those blocs, it is still neutral.

The only thing Ukraine did to Putin's Russia is offend its sensibilities; nothing else. No NATO joining, no NATO forces on its turf, no belligerence. Putin's guy got outvoted, Putin got butthurt and decided to invade in 2014. 

If that is a justification for invasion, where do we stop? If it is not a justification, why are we reading this tripe?

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I know exactly why NATO was involved in the Serbia situation.


Good for you - then why ask silly questions?

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Congratulations.
> 
> You have just confirmed that Russia is in breach of all acceptable international standards by trying to force *sovereign nations,* (such as)
> 
> ...


I never said or stated anything else that would refute those 3 issues.
Read my posts: e.g. the very first when I mentioned the 2 options.
_1.As I had mentioned already many times - anyone who has studied Putin, is fully aware about his Czarist agenda/policy. (meaning that Putin *will not refrain from war options* in 
order to pursue his agenda)._

Now keep your trap shut if all you can do is to ooze brown stuff - or switch to ignore if you can't control your comments.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> So if a sovereign nation has the right to decide its own foreign policy, and decides to engage with cooperative engagements with whom it desires on a peaceful basis, is that a justification for another nation to invade it?


I never said that and you know that I do not think that way - so why bring up that statement?


Thumpalumpacus said:


> And that is indeed our topic, because you are here trying to explain Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which devolves directly upon Ukraine's willingness to cooperate with NATO while spurning Russia. That is one of Putin's prime justifications for his country's, ahem, not-an-invasion.


No, that was NOT my topic, but for politicians to choose a smart option to prevent such a scenario - and if it does happens, to posses the realistic means to go in immediately and not to end up as now.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Further, I did not write that there was no cooperation nor interaction, simply that the nature of such interactions did not void Ukraine's neutrality.


No you did not - you stated: _....Russia invaded Ukraine before Ukraine abandoned neutrality. This is a fact. _


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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

> Not what I read. The established media either ignored the stories or published along the lines of the cruiser Admiral Makarov has "reportedly" been sunk.



Basically established media published the same story as twitter (you would be amazed to know how much they feed from twitter or telegram channels), but with a significant delay and a generous use of the words "reportedly" "unconfirmed" "there is no evidence" and so on. As for later reporting it was false information, so did the twitter channels I follow (again with some advance versus established media), and I also reported those here.



> You won't get that level of fact checking and almost contrition from Twitter posters. You do you, I'm not a Mod here, but I would argue that proliferation of misinformation, including purported combat footage from Twitter does no one any good.



As far as I know mods mission is not to apply censure on posters re their information sources, their mission is that we abide to the forum rules Terms and rules.
I don't consider either to have the right to tell others what sources they can post or not. If I think some post is false or fake or contains misleading information (and that includes established media) I say so or provide evidence its not true.

I never *intentionally *spread false or fake information, if that bothers you. I admit that I may have been fouled a couple of times, however most of the times you can find interesting info provided you follow people that tend to be reliable (which doesn't mean they are 100%). But the same is true with established media.

Honestly, I assume that people here are adults with brains. By making it evident that the source is twitter, which I never tried to hide since I always link to the twitter message instead of posting the vid or picture directly, I assume it is understood that the words "reportedly" and "unconfirmed" go with it. I don't think it's necessary to explicitly say that twitter info is "unconfirmed" every time someone posts from there.

Regards.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I notice you didn't answer my question.


I suggest you stop caring if your questions are answered. We have a right to ask and in return everyone has a right to ignore the questions, and the reason they ignore cannot be assumed to be acceptance or rejection of the questioner’s position on something. I looked back on my posts and don’t think I‘ve ever once circled back to demand a reply to my posts. 

Letting go leads to a much better mental state, but it takes willpower not to GAF when you’re itching for an answer.









Why Silence / Ignoring Is a Powerful Psychological Warfare Tool


The act of ignoring someone is a powerful tool. This article explores the psychology of ignoring those who seek to bring you pain.




kletische.com

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## WARSPITER (May 17, 2022)

As posted on another thread, Renault has 'sold' its business in Russia for the princely sum of two roubles.
It seems Renault would rather take the hit than the bad publicity surrounding doing business in Russia.

Renault has the option of reentering the Russian market in the next six years.

The Russian government has now nationalised the Renault facilities and announced they will revive the old
Moskvitch car brand.

It may be that there will be a vehicle shortage in Russia as Renault supplied 20% of the market.
Building modern cars with the electronics required will probably be difficult which may mean a backward
step in car production (especially electronics) compared to what most would call a modern vehicle.

From revolution to devolution ?

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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

It seems Putin is micromanaging the war in Ucraine
Diden''t Hitler also used to micromanage his armies?









Russian failures fuelled by Vladimir Putin’s meddling


President Putin is making low-level tactical decisions that would normally be decided by an officer in charge of as few as 700 Russian troops, western military




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since you got your own opinions, read it up yourself





Jagdflieger said:


> Good for you - then why ask silly questions?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I know exactly why NATO was involved in the Serbia situation.
> 
> It was a response to an act of aggression.
> 
> ...





MiTasol said:


> Congratulations.
> 
> You have just confirmed that Russia is in breach of all acceptable international standards by trying to force *sovereign nations,* (such as)
> 
> ...





Jagdflieger said:


> I never said or stated anything else that would refute those 3 issues.
> Read my posts: e.g. the very first when I mentioned the 2 options.
> _1.As I had mentioned already many times - anyone who has studied Putin, is fully aware about his Czarist agenda/policy. (meaning that Putin *will not refrain from war options* in
> order to pursue his agenda)._
> ...





Let’s tone it down with the personal attacks.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems Putin is micromanaging the war in Ucraine
> Diden''t Hitler also used to micromanage his armies?
> 
> 
> ...


I would say all dictators share that trait

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let’s tone it down with the personal attacks.


sorry double post


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems Putin is micromanaging the war in Ucraine
> Diden''t Hitler also used to micromanage his armies?


Most famously, so did Czar Nicolas II. Unlike Hitler or Putin, at least Nicolas lead from the front. But yeah, he was just as useless.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> As posted on another thread, Renault has 'sold' its business in Russia for the princely sum of two roubles.
> It seems Renault would rather take the hit than the bad publicity surrounding doing business in Russia.
> 
> Renault has the option of reentering the Russian market in the next six years.
> ...



McDonalds is now officially pulling out completely as well. It’s selling off all its restaurants, and retaining its copyright.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Most famously, so did Czar Nicolas II. Unlike Hitler or Putin, at least Nicolas lead from the front. But yeah, he was just as useless.


Really? would you have an example - I would be interested in that.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Basically established media published the same story as twitter (you would be amazed to know how much they feed from twitter or telegram channels), but with a significant delay and a generous use of the words "reportedly" "unconfirmed" "there is no evidence" and so on. As for later reporting it was false information, so did the twitter channels I follow (again with some advance versus established media), and I also reported those here.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You are correct. We will not police what news sources you or anyone posts. We will, however, also not stop people from calling them out as false if needed.

We are here to ensure compliance with the terms snd conditions and try to maintain peace and decorum.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> tell this to the people who start this in the first place - okay!



Are we in a Kindergarten and are you four years old?

_”He started it!”_

_”No, he started it first!”_

Did I, or did I not quote their posts as well as yours? - okay!

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> McDonalds is now officially pulling out completely as well. It’s selling off all its restaurants, and retaining its copyright.


Who goes to McDonalds anymore? My adult children are in their early 20s and neither have ever had a Big Mac and haven’t been to a McDs since we last took them for chicken nuggets in their elementary school days. McD’s seems to be like Facebook, once cool, and now the purview of Gen Xrs and their aging parents. I understand that McDs is popular with African Americans, especially those in food deserts.









Why Millennials Just Aren't That Into McDonald's


Sales are falling between the big yellow arches, and fast food as we know it is turning over a new leaf as a new generation takes the wheel.




www.yahoo.com





As for Russians, I wonder how many of the people would have continued to eat there now that Putin’s propaganda has convinced the populace that the nation is fighting a proxy war against the US. Perhaps the restaurants themselves were at risk of protests and vandalism. It’s a funny thing though that AIUI, McDonalds in Russia we’re actually Canadian founded.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Really? would you have an example - I would be interested in that.


An example of what? The Czar at the front? That’s public record.



https://www.historyplace.com/worldhistory/firstworldwar/rus-czar-front.htm



_Although the Czar had no military aptitude, he relieved the Grand Duke in September 1915 and took personal command of the world's largest army, with 16 million men mobilized--an army sprawled across the gigantic Eastern Front. _

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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

According to Spiegel, the following was supplied to Ukraine from Germany:
2,450 RGW-90 launchers
1,600 DM22 and 3,000 DM31 anti-tank mines









Ukrainekrieg: Macron sagt Selenskyj weitere Waffenlieferungen zu


In einem Telefonat zwischen dem französischen und dem ukrainischen Präsidenten hat Emmanuel Macron die Lieferung weiterer Waffen in die Ukraine zugesichert. Und: Die WHO meldet 226 Angriffe auf ukrainische Krankenhäuser. Das waren die News am 17. Mai.




www.spiegel.de

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Are we in a Kindergarten and are you four years old?
> 
> _”He started it!”
> 
> ...


First I thought you were referring to me only - the I saw that was not the case - so I deleted my post
Then you brought in another statement and mine into your previous post
Now you are referring to me as a 4 year old - maybe you should check onto the content of all your post to me, and then ask yourself that question

Over and out Mr. Mod.


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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> An example of what? The Czar at the front? That’s public record.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That he was at the front like many other Royalties - e.g. Willi and his sons (the latter actively) I am aware, but not that he led troops in the front-line - so that would be of interest to me.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I would say all dictators share that trait


Regarding dictators I read that at the start of war Hitler let the generals do their work, however as the war started to reverse tides he started to get more and more involved in micromanaging. 
On the other hand Stalin did the reverse path, started the war micromanaging but progressively let the professionals do their work coinciding with favorable outcomes.

It seems like the amount of micromanaging is inversely proportional to how successful is the war.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Who goes to McDonalds anymore? My adult children are in their early 20s and neither have ever had a Big Mac and haven’t been to a McDs since we last took them for chicken nuggets in their elementary school days. McD’s seems to be like Facebook, once cool, and now the purview of Gen Xrs and their aging parents. I understand that McDs is popular with African Americans, especially those in food deserts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good for you, and that your kids don’t eat that crap. Neither do I.

However, McD is the worlds largest burger chain, and you or I not eating their is irrelevant. Russia makes up 9% or $2 billion of McDs revenue, so McD pulling out of Russia is pretty indicative of how they feel about Putlers illegal invasion and war crimes. That was the point.

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## wlewisiii (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Most famously, so did Czar Nicolas II. Unlike Hitler or Putin, at least Nicolas lead from the front. But yeah, he was just as useless.


I'd love a link to more info on that. As far as I remember, the last British monarch was George II at the Battle of Dettingen in 1743 during the War of the Austrian Succession. On mainland Europe, Napoleon III commanded at the Battle of Sedan in 1870 but I am not familiar with any royals heads of state since then ( Junior Commander Elizabeth Windsor, alas. doesn't count for this, honorable as her service was).


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> First I thought you were referring to me only - the I saw that was not the case - so I deleted my post
> Then you brought in another statement and mine into your previous post
> Now you are referring to me as a 4 year old - maybe you should check onto the content of all your post to me, and then ask yourself that question
> 
> Over and out Mr. Mod.



I’m not taking sides. I am telling ALL of you to knock it off. What is so hard to understand about that? Or do you really want to do this and pick a fight??

I swear my 5 year old and 3 year old are easier.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Regarding dictators I read that at the start of war Hitler let the generals do their work, however as the war started to reverse tides he started to get more and more involved in micromanaging.
> On the other hand Stalin did the reverse path, started the war micromanaging but progressively let the professionals do their work coinciding with favorable outcomes.
> 
> It seems like the amount of micromanaging is inversely proportional to how successful is the war.


I think that is more of a myth - during the siege of Warsaw he already interfered, and the maybe greatest blunder in WW2, 7 month later at Dunkirk.
But since the early campaigns were so as to say successful in regards to foreign governments surrendering - no body cared too much at the time.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

PS Herr Jagdflieger…

Wenn du Respekt willst, musst du ihn auch geben. Treten Sie vom Pferd herunter.


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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not taking sides. I am telling ALL of you to knock it off. What is so hard to understand about that? Or do you really want to do this and pick a fight??
> 
> I swear my 5 year old and 3 year old are easier.


Address me in a correct way (keep your kid comparisons kindly to yourself) - same goes for certain posters here, and we both don't need to pick a fight.
And my 6 year old daughter got a whole lot of more manners then a load of members here.

Dann zeig mir doch mal einen einzigen post von mir in dem ich unsachlich oder beleidigende Aeusserungen getaetigt habe.
Thanks in advance


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Address me in a correct way (keep your kid comparisons kindly to yourself) - same goes for certain posters here, and we both don't need to pick a fight.
> And my 6 year old daughter got a whole lot of more manners then a load of members here.
> 
> Dann zeig mir doch mal einen einzigen post von mir in dem ich unsachlich oder beleidigende Aeusserungen getaetigt habe.
> Thanks in advance



If you act like a kindergartner you will be addressed as such.

You don’t want to be compared to a child, then don’t act like one with the _He started it first BS…_.

Are we finished? Or are we going to continue this BS?


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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If you act like a kindergartner you will be addressed as such.
> 
> You don’t want to be compared to a child, then don’t act like one with the _He started it first BS…_.
> 
> Are we finished? Or are we going to continue this BS?


rest assured that you and I are finished

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Looks like Mariupol has been surrendered to Russia.









Mariupol’s Last Defenders Yield, Ending Long Russian Siege


Completing the capture of Mariupol is a long sought victory for Russia, and Ukrainian soldiers are being taken from the Azovstal steel plant to Russian-controlled territory. Kyiv is pushing for a prisoner swap.




www.wsj.com













Moscow set to call referendum on Mariupol joining Russia, says Ukraine


Kremlin poised to hold referendum in ruined city in bid to secure grip on the region




www.theguardian.com





Unless Ukraine can mount a southern offensive to take the city back I'd say it's going to be part of Russia before end of the month.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Mariupol has been surrendered to Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Seems to be, but according to other Ukrainian-western sources "some" fighters are supposedly remaining there.- we will see.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> We will not police what news sources you or anyone posts. We will, however, also not stop people from calling them out as false if needed.


Nor did I expect the opposite. I do actually think that calling a given post fake, in a constructive way, or debunking it, is a healthy process. 
Regards.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Nor did I expect the opposite. I do actually think that calling a given post fake, in a constructive way, or debunking it, is a healthy process.
> Regards.



Agreed. It should be done in a constructive and civil manner. That is healthy debate.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Regarding dictators I read that at the start of war Hitler let the generals do their work....


In some cases Hitler was right to challenge his Generals, Franz Halder in particular, who both overtly and covertly broke with Hitler's plans. I wonder if Putin was misled by fearful Generals or if the Generals broke with Putin's plans.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Seems to be, but according to other Ukrainian-western sources "some" fighters are supposedly remaining there.- we will see.


It's too bad the garrison couldn't have been reinforced, perhaps by sea or air drop. Such a strategic target should have had a stronger force once rumors of the invasion were clear.

Maybe the Ukrainians should seize Belgorod in exchange? It's only up the road from the Ukrainian front lines.









Ukraine accused of deadly cross-border attack on Russian village


If confirmed, it would mark the first time a Russian was killed inside the country by Ukraine shelling since war began.




www.aljazeera.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> rest assured that you and I are finished



Gott, das hoffe ich.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In some cases Hitler was right to challenge his Generals, Franz Halder in particular, who both overtly and covertly broke with Hitler's plans. I wonder if Putin was misled by fearful Generals or if the Generals broke with Putin's plans.


AFAIK, even including the 80's Afghanistan, Russia has not faced a real war. The "present" general staff has only gathered military experience via more or less civil wars or fighting militias and irregulars.
So the blunder of Russia's army leadership isn't really a surprise.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Look everyone. As stated all the way back on page one this is an important but tough topic. We are all not going to agree. We, however, can remain civil (and we have done so for the most part for 324 pages - *A big thanks to all of you*).

Remember when you disagree with someone, do so in a constructive and civil manner. We all get more out of it that way. Don’t attack the poster, attack the message.

We mods will do our best to not take sides (even when we want to). When we ask you to tone it down, please do so and don’t push back with a finger pointing tantrum. Not only is it irritating, but its also counterproductive.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's too bad the garrison couldn't have been reinforced, perhaps by sea or air drop. Such a strategic target should have had a stronger force once rumors of the invasion were clear.
> 
> Maybe the Ukrainians should seize Belgorod in exchange? It's only up the road from the Ukrainian front lines.
> 
> ...


IMHO, seizing Belgorod would be a bad move. Could be interpreted as an existential thread for Russia and allow for the use of Nukes.

Yesterday night there where unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets river East of Kharkiv. Haven't seen anything (nor confirming nor debunking) yet today. If true, that means they are going for the supply lines to Izium, which probably makes more sense for Ukraine.








Ukraine update: Someone managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, but it's not Russia


The Siverskyi Donets River has already played an outsized role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. East of Izyum, Russian forces attempted to cross the river three times with disastrous consequences that kos has documented in detail. In the east,...




www.dailykos.com

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

On the political front, Russia seems to be toning down the rhetoric about Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Lavrov's comments align with the language Putin was using yesterday. The more aggressive language being used about the US and UK remains a common theme, including allusions to both nations conducting acts of war:
_
Finland and Sweden joining Nato would probably make "not much difference", according to Russia's foreign minister.

Speaking at a public lecture in Moscow, Sergei Lavrov says both countries "have been participating in Nato military exercises for many years," in remarks quoted by the Ria Novosti news agency.

But he reiterated Moscow's stance that his country's response to Sweden and Finland's decision to apply for membership of the military alliance will depend on what forces Nato deploys on their territory.

Meanwhile Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said countries like the UK and US whose military advisers, he says, "tell armed Ukrainian nationalists what to do, [and] who give them intelligence information," should be considered more than just "unfriendly".

"We put it mildly by calling them unfriendly states. I would now say that these are already hostile states because what they are doing is war," Peskov added.

Russia has an official list of "unfriendly" states, largely consisting of Nato members, as well as non-member countries such as Australia and Japan which have also imposed sanctions on Russia._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> On the political front, Russia seems to be toning down the rhetoric about Sweden and Finland joining NATO.



Probably because Putler has Erdogon on the payroll.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I never said that and you know that I do not think that way - so why bring up that statement?



Probably because you seem pretty busy trying to excuse Putin's invasion of Ukraine by blaming the victim.



Jagdflieger said:


> No, that was NOT my topic, but for politicians to choose a smart option to prevent such a scenario - and if it does happens, to posses the realistic means to go in immediately and not to end up as now.



Even politicians making not-smart decisions doesn't mean that Putin gets to invade Ukraine and claim it to be a legitimate response to political events.



Jagdflieger said:


> No you did not - you stated: _....Russia invaded Ukraine before Ukraine abandoned neutrality. This is a fact. _



And it is a fact. Having friendly relations with NATO doesn't violate neutrality, any more than having friendly relations with India or Botswana violates neutrality. Ukraine didn't change its constitution until 2019, FIVE YEARS after Russia invaded. Including that in your laundry list of Russian grievances simply demonstrates my point for everyone to see.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I suggest you stop caring if your questions are answered.



I'll let you know when I want your advice, thanks in advance.



Admiral Beez said:


> We have a right to ask and in return everyone has a right to ignore the questions, and the reason they ignore cannot be assumed to be acceptance or rejection of the questioner’s position on something. I looked back on my posts and don’t think I‘ve ever once circled back to demand a reply to my posts.



That's nice, bully for you. When I'm in a disagreement with someone and they don't answer a pointed question, I think it's telling -- and fair to point it out.



Admiral Beez said:


> Letting go leads to a much better mental state, but it takes willpower not to GAF when you’re itching for an answer.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Perhaps some of us enjoy a debate? Maybe not everyone shares your outlook of trying to tell others where to post from or how to reply to someone? Gosh, who died and appointed you lecturer-in-chief?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

Let’s calm down gentlemen.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

_KYIV/NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine, May 17 (Reuters) - More than 250 Ukrainian fighters surrendered to Russian forces at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol and Kyiv said it had ordered its entire garrison to evacuate, heralding the end of Europe's bloodiest battle in decades.

Reuters saw buses leave the steelworks overnight and five of them arrive in the Russian-held town of Novoazovsk, where Moscow said they would be treated for wounds.

In one, marked with the Latin letter 'Z' that has become the symbol of Russia's assault, wounded men were lying on stretchers three bunks high. One man was wheeled out, his head tightly wrapped in thick bandages.

While both sides spoke of a deal under which all Ukrainian troops would abandon the huge steelworks, many details were not yet public, including how many fighters remained inside and whether any form of prisoner swap had been agreed in advance._









Mariupol defenders surrender to Russia but their fate is uncertain


More than 250 Ukrainian fighters surrendered to Russian forces at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol after weeks of desperate resistance, bringing an end to the most devastating siege of Russia's war in Ukraine and allowing President Vladimir Putin to claim a rare victory in his faltering campaign.




www.reuters.com





Last night on the way home from work, on BBC, I heard an interview with a Ukrainian minister. She stated that negotiations for a prisoner-swap were underway but not resolved.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:

_LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.

[...]

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers," Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired colonel, told the "60 Minutes" talk show on Rossiya-1 hosted by Olga Skabeyeva, one of the most pro-Kremlin journalists on television.


"The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us," said Khodaryonok, a regular guest on state TV who gives often candid assessments of the situation.

He said that Ukraine could mobilise 1 armed million men.

Khodaryonok, a military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper and a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, cautioned before the invasion that such a step would not be in Russia's national interests.

[...]

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine - it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last," Khodaryonok said before he was interrupted by Skabeyeva.

[...]

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism: if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you," he said.

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake - it just looks rather funny," he said.

Russia, he said, was isolated.

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and - however we don't want to admit it - practically the whole world is against us - and we need to get out of this situation."_









Ukraine will get worse for isolated Russia, analyst says on state TV


One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.




www.reuters.com





He'll be logging in Siberia before too long, I bet.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV/NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine, May 17 (Reuters) - More than 250 Ukrainian fighters surrendered to Russian forces at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol and Kyiv said it had ordered its entire garrison to evacuate, heralding the end of Europe's bloodiest battle in decades.
> 
> Reuters saw buses leave the steelworks overnight and five of them arrive in the Russian-held town of Novoazovsk, where Moscow said they would be treated for wounds.
> 
> ...



BBC just reported that 7 busloads of Azovstal fighters were evacuated this morning. The problem is that they're being taken to Russian-held locations. This leads to the obvious question about how they'll be treated. Again from the BBC:

_Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the status of the evacuated troops and did not answer whether the Ukrainian soldiers would be treated as war criminals or as prisoners of war.

"[President Vladimir] Putin has guaranteed that they will be treated in line with the relevant international laws," he said, refusing to provide any further details on what will happen to the evacuated troops.

Speaking in the Russian State Duma (parliament), Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said those evacuated should not be subject to exchange and should instead be brought to justice._


Unsurprisingly, Russia is again sending mixed-messages with zero specific details. "International laws" is a very broad topic and could be used by the Kremlin to bring these men to trial on some charge or other (e.g. terrorism). Personally, I don't envy their position. I hope they're treated well by their Russian captors...but I'm not holding my breath.

UPDATE: Here's a pic of the bus convoy being escorted by Russian army vehicles:

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## Snautzer01 (May 17, 2022)

Wasnt there talk of exchanging prisoners?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the status of the evacuated troops and did not answer whether the Ukrainian soldiers would be treated as war criminals or as prisoners of war.
> 
> "[President Vladimir] Putin has guaranteed that they will be treated in line with the relevant international laws," he said, refusing to provide any further details on what will happen to the evacuated troops._



I'd be surprised if any of these defenders survive Russian captivity, given that 1) their existence was cited as a reason for invading Ukraine, 2) their staunch defense was a great embarrassment to Russian arms, and 3) if they return to Ukraine and tell their story it will likely be very inspiring to their nation.



buffnut453 said:


> Unsurprisingly, Russia is again sending mixed-messages with zero specific details. "International laws" is a very broad topic and could be used by the Kremlin to bring these men to trial on some charge or other (e.g. terrorism). Personally, I don't envy their position. I hope they're treated well by their Russian captors...but I'm not holding my breath.



Right. Who on Earth would trust the Russians to follow through on any commitment they make after all this?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Wasnt there talk of exchanging prisoners?



BBC reported that last night, I heard on the radio. Unsuccessful thus far.


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## ARTESH (May 17, 2022)

Well, it seems I've lost some good informative posts here!

Thanks for those who keeping us informed with their useful posts.

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## Macandy (May 17, 2022)

The defenders of Azostahl have done their duty, and far more than anyone could have asked or expected.

They bought time for Ukraine to train and equip a new army that's now entering the field with superior NATO supplied weaponry.

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## ARTESH (May 17, 2022)

NATO or any other so called 'superpower' could easily destroy the entire attacking / defending army(ies) with just one air attack or missile attack!

Selling useless junks 100 times of their value is not called 'help'.

They are just looking for their own benefits, regardless how many humans have lost their lives or homes.

I see no difference between this one and Iran - Iraq war.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:
> 
> _LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.
> 
> ...


Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Elsewhere, the potential for war crimes charges to be levied continues unabated. 

_The International Criminal Court has sent a team of 42 investigators, forensic experts and support personnel to Ukraine in the "largest ever single field deployment" by it's prosecutor's office.

In a statement, Karim Khan says investigators will collect testimonials of military attacks which may constitute crimes, while forensic experts would work with Ukrainian authorities to map existing action and "strengthen the chain of custody" regarding hard evidence.

"Now more than ever we need to show the law in action," he says. "It is essential that we demonstrate to survivors and the families of victims that international law is relevant to their experience... in order to bring them some measure of solace through the process of justice."

Khan says his team will work with French experts and those sent by other states and thanked the Netherlands government for facilitating the secondment of Dutch national experts to support the mission._

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## buffnut453 (May 17, 2022)

Did I call it or did I CALL IT????
_
Russia has asked its Supreme Court to designate Ukraine's Azov Regiment as a terrorist organisation.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the Justice Ministry in Moscow has said a court case "on recognising the Ukrainian paramilitary nationalist association 'Azov' (other names used: the 'Azov' battalion, 'Azov' regiment) as a terrorist organisation and the ban on its activities on the territory of the Russian Federation is scheduled for trial on 26 May".

It comes as Ukrainian fighters - many of them soldiers of the Azov Regiment - were evacuated from the Azovstal steelworks on Monday night.

Earlier Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on whether the defenders of the steelworks - who are now in Russian custody - would be treated as prisoners of war or as war criminals.

The Azov Regiment was formed in 2014, soon after Moscow annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula, to fight against Russian forces and pro-Russian rebels in the eastern Donbas region.

Some Azov fighters originally had links to nationalist and far-right groups. The regiment was later incorporated into Ukraine's National Guard._

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Some Azov fighters originally had links to nationalist and far-right groups. The regiment was later incorporated into Ukraine's National Guard._


When this war is over and the rebuilding of a new Ukraine is underway, one in which western values of democracy and civil society are expected to prevail (as part of a drive to EU membership), where some new nation-building exercise and a relationship between Ukrainian citizens of both Russian and Ukrainian descent must be formed, the government in Kyiv might secretly thank the Russians for liquidating or incarcerating these potential troublemakers. They'll be hailed as national heroes of course, for the most part posthumously or _in absentia_. They served their purpose.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
> Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.



If his prediction comes true and there are soon to be one million NATO-armed, US/EU-financed Ukrainians... well, Russia's special operation in Ukraine is over.


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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

Probably, the first video of the combat application of Brimstone missiles. They say that ground to ground range is 10-12 km. Now the hands of anti-tank units are much longer.
God save the Queen. And Boris.

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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> When this war is over and the rebuilding of a new Ukraine is underway, one in which western values of democracy and civil society are expected to prevail (as part of a drive to EU membership), where some new nation-building exercise and a relationship between Ukrainian citizens of both Russian and Ukrainian descent must be formed, the government in Kyiv might secretly thank the Russians for liquidating or incarcerating these potential troublemakers. They'll be hailed as national heroes of course, for the most part posthumously or _in absentia_. They served their purpose.


Excuse me? Azov men and women are troublemakers only for the aggressors. 
They are hailed as heroes alive or dead. And the regiment continues to fight in other areas. Not all Azov was in Mariupol.
As for the relationship between ethnic groups in Ukraine, there is nothing new to be formed after the war. In terms of tolerance, Ukraine can be an example. As an ethnic Russian, I always felt safe in Ukraine, in any region.

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## Glider (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
> Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.



I have to say that he was speaking well with a lot of common sense. The last statement said it all, '_It's a situation we need to get out of'_

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## ARTESH (May 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> As an ethnic Russian, I always felt safe in Ukraine, in any region.


That was interesting!

I hope this war ends sooner!!!

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> I have to say that he was speaking well with a lot of common sense. The last statement said it all, '_It's a situation we need to get out of'_


And that bit that the "whole world is against us"..... that's a very candid statement for Russian state TV. Could this be a sign of internal dissent?

It is amazing to view the global financial and/or military support for Ukraine. It took years for the likes of Brazil to choose sides in WW2.














List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## ARTESH (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> 1- the "whole world is against us"...
> 
> 2- It took years for the likes of Brazil to choose sides in WW2.
> 
> View attachment 669164


1- not surprising for me! The leader of Islamic regime and related propaganda units / organizations claim that they were alone in fight against "Baathist Infidels". They even banned any talk about US / Israel helps (in any form / shape) to Iran's political and military.

Main reason for quoting your post;

2- never heard of this before. Very interesting... Any links for further reading?


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> I have to say that he was speaking well with a lot of common sense. The last statement said it all, '_It's a situation we need to get out of'_


The anchor Olga Skabeyeva looks miserable, likely expecting a visit from the State TV komisariat once the show airs.

_"However much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us"_

Ouch.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> 2- never heard of this before. Very interesting... Any links for further reading?











Brazilian Expeditionary Force - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





_"Brazil's participation in World War II on the Allied side was not a foregone conclusion. Brazil was the biggest non-European consumer of German products and ranked ninth among Germany's trading partners overall. It also hosted a large and influential German community that engendered closer ties to Germany. Brazil in 1939 maintained a position of neutrality, initially trading with both Allied and Axis countries." 
_
On August 22, 1942, Brazil declared war on the Axis powers of Germany and Italy. But not on Japan until June 6, 1945. With this is mind, it's noteworthy how quickly Brazil chose the side of Ukraine in this new war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

_
The Senate on Monday overwhelmingly advanced a $40 billion Ukraine aid package that easily passed the House last week but had stalled in the upper chamber because of an objection from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

Senators voted 81 to 11 to end debate on a motion to proceed to the legislation, setting up a final vote on the bill for later in the week. _



https://thehill.com/news/senate/3490453-senate-set-to-advance-40-billion-ukraine-aid-package/



I won't repost the rest of the article as it is too political for forum rules, but those interested can link and read for themselves. I'm just glad for this move because I'm sure that it will be passed overwhelmingly and signed into law shortly.

We owe the Ukrainians every bit of aid and support we can muster.

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## GTX (May 17, 2022)

Tin Tin has come out of retirement.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:
> 
> _LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.
> 
> ...


Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?

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## GTX (May 17, 2022)

Ukraine's port city of Mariupol on the verge of falling into Russian hands, as fate of Azovstal fighters remains unclear


The departure of Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal plant is the beginning of the end of a nearly three-month siege that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of both defiance and suffering.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Tin Tin has come out of retirement.
> 
> View attachment 669173
> View attachment 669174



I read Tintin regularly when I lived in Iran, we got the English version of the comic books usually a couple of months after Euro pub.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?



I hadn't considered that perspective, but you're right, that seems in the realm of possibility, given the regime's tight media control. Perhaps a tamped-down version of Goebbels's "Are You Ready For Total War?" speech? 

I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine's port city of Mariupol on the verge of falling into Russian hands, as fate of Azovstal fighters remains unclear
> 
> 
> The departure of Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal plant is the beginning of the end of a nearly three-month siege that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of both defiance and suffering.
> ...



Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.


Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded? When the Kursk sank Putin took a lot of unprecedented public criticism for the lost 118 Russian sons on that submarine. 









The Kursk tragedy: How Putin’s first public crisis changed Russia


In August 2000, Vladimir Putin was just months into his first term as president of Russia when a crisis arose in the Barents Sea. A Russian submarine — the Kursk — had sunk following an accidental explosion, killing all but 23 soldiers on board and stranding the survivors with no means of...




ca.news.yahoo.com













Kursk submarine disaster - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





This is over 150 Kursks.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.


Maybe some time in the future we could know that this resistance foiled russians plans in other war special military operation zone, like the Doolittle raid.

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## J_P_C (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
> Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.



clearly finally somebody told them bitter truth - question is it was by purpose or just ill prepared TV show....

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hadn't considered that perspective, but you're right, that seems in the realm of possibility, given the regime's tight media control. Perhaps a tamped-down version of Goebbels's "Are You Ready For Total War?" speech?
> 
> I suspect this would be more likely than preparing the Russian public for a withdrawal, simply because the regime can't afford a defeat, I don't think. But that too is possible.


Yes, a withdrawal acknowledge seems unlikely. Perhaps a mission completed claim despite the odds of the world against us more probable

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded? When the Kursk sank Putin took a lot of unprecedented public criticism for the lost 118 Russian sons on that submarine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Agreed. I think Putin (knowingly or not) has staked his regime upon a successful defeat of Ukraine, and explaining a defeat will only reinforce impression that the 15,000-20,000 Russian body-bags arriving home will undercut his alleged competence and support.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 17, 2022)

A russian advice to Israel to not support Ukrainia in any way?

For the first time, a S-300 SAM was launched against an israeli jet.









S-300 Surface-To-Air Missile Fired At Israeli Jets Over Syria For First Time: Report


In a first in the 11-year Syrian Civil War, Russian-supplied missiles have fired on Israeli jets, but with no casualties.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Yes, a withdrawal acknowledge seems unlikely. Perhaps a mission completed claim despite the odds of the world against us more probable



Right, declare victory and go home, a la America in 1973.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A russian advice to Israel to not support Ukrainia in any way?


Yeah, poking Israel is always a smart move. The place is like Sparta, everyone is a soldier.

In 2006 I toured Israel when I sold pet food for a Canadian exporter. I traveled from tip to tip of that country with a bag of dog food under each arm. I was sitting with my distributor, his wife (they met in the army, she is/was a tank mechanic) and his dad, a gristled veteran of 1967 and 73. As we sat there near the border with Gaza in an Arab cafe, I observed a pair of F-15s circling overhead and of course soldiers everywhere (including the beautiful women of the IDF), and I mentioned that Israelis live an idyllic Mediterranean life and yet are seemingly always ready for battle. The old man thumped his finger on the table and said to me, "_every Israeli knows that whoever comes they're not coming for territory, no, they're coming to kill every man, woman and child, and I tell you, never again will anyone f#ck with the Jewish people"_. I fell in love with the people and the place right there. And that is why Israelis are not to be screwed with. Whomever fired that missile today had better hope they're not found out, Mossad is everywhere.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, declare victory and go home, a la America in 1973.


Or Iraq in 2011, Withdrawal of United States troops from Iraq (2007–2011) - Wikipedia

Or Afghanistan in 2021 Withdrawal of United States troops from Afghanistan (2020–2021) - Wikipedia

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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Here is the vid for those who understand Russian, with subtitles, but as I don't speak russian, can't say how accurate they are.
> Although I disagree with the Siberia option. I think he will be invited to take tea.






Admiral Beez said:


> If his prediction comes true and there are soon to be one million NATO-armed, US/EU-financed Ukrainians... well, Russia's special operation in Ukraine is over.





Glider said:


> I have to say that he was speaking well with a lot of common sense. The last statement said it all, '_It's a situation we need to get out of'_





Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Could this be an attempt to prepare the russian people for a general mobilization? Or a withdrawal?





J_P_C said:


> clearly finally somebody told them bitter truth - question is it was by purpose or just ill prepared TV show....



Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.

February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, _Nezavisimaya Gazeta_ published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.

Google translated version





Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета


О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках




nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog





Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)





Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета


О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушках




nvo.ng.ru





His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
_- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again._

It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.

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## space dodo (May 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Tin Tin has come out of retirement.
> 
> View attachment 669173
> View attachment 669174


Wish herge was still alive, would make an awesome Tintin.

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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> _over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards._


Thank you for posting that, it was very informative.

These people are motivated.... they remind me of Israelis, united under one cause, fighting for their homeland and culture against incredible odds.

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## space dodo (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thank you for posting that, it was very informative.
> 
> These people are motivated.... they remind me of Israelis, united under one cause, fighting for their homeland and culture against incredible odds.



That's the difference between them and the Russians. They're fighting for the survival of their country while Russia is "denazifying". To a Russian troop theirs no bin laden or Hitler who can be used as motivation to fight against.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.
> 
> February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, _Nezavisimaya Gazeta_ published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.
> 
> ...


Thanks for posting, very very interesting.

I also found this sentence very insightful also, regarding the airborne assault on Antonov airport:
*
"The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours""*

Looks like the ukrainians take note of this but not the russians themselves.

Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

space dodo said:


> That's the difference between them and the Russians. They're fighting for the survival of their country while Russia is "denazifying". To a Russian troop theirs no bin laden or Hitler who can be used as motivation to fight against.


Indeed. Here's a Russian army ad. It's nothing about love of country, family and fighting for your fellow countrymen, but instead it's bravado and kicking enemy ass. I choose the former, thanks.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 17, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.


Unfortunate that this guy is not part of Putin's inner circle, for the Ukrainians but also for Russians and the rest of the world.
But that is annother trait of dictators, they surround themselves by people that never oppose them.

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## Glider (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.
> 
> February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, _Nezavisimaya Gazeta_ published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.
> 
> ...


An excellent article whch was written before the combat started. My favourite parts are: -

By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it
As for the weakest point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West may, in a fairly short time, supply Kyiv with fighters, as they say, from the presence of the armed forces - in other words, second-hand. However, this second-hand, in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics, will be quite comparable with the majority of aircraft in the Russian fleet. _Whilst this hasn't happened it shows a high regard for the second hand NATO fighters presumably mainly F15 and F16_
 It should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, in the event of Russia's invasion, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow
Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of the attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, and compensates for the lag in forces and technologies. And in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more than just Stalingrad and Grozny.
In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as "The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes", "Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war", "Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes" have no serious grounds.

If I were Putin I would sack all my present advisors and give this guy the job, lets hope he doesn't.

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Good for you, and that your kids don’t eat that crap. Neither do I.
> 
> However, McD is the worlds largest burger chain, and you or I not eating their is irrelevant. Russia makes up 9% or $2 billion of McDs revenue, so McD pulling out of Russia is pretty indicative of how they feel about Putlers illegal invasion and war crimes. That was the point.


Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's too bad the garrison couldn't have been reinforced, perhaps by sea or air drop. Such a strategic target should have had a stronger force once rumors of the invasion were clear.
> 
> Maybe the Ukrainians should seize Belgorod in exchange? It's only up the road from the Ukrainian front lines.
> 
> ...


Deja vu.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.


It’s true, and much better than what used to be our most popular brand, Tim Hortons.






The seemingly terminal decline of Tim Hortons


What happened to Tim Hortons? The downfall of Canada's brand https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/09/tim-hortons-canada-coffee-brand-popularity-downfall Umm.... this is Canada you Brazilian f#cks. We have winter, and in the past winter drove us into Timmies, not away. Tim Horton and...




urbantoronto.ca





As for Russia….



https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/burger-king-russia-rbi-1.6381654

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:
> 
> _LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.
> 
> ...


If his heart is strong enough.

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## gumbyk (May 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.


When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.

McDonalds coffee (even their barista-made stuff) is crap - worse than their burgers.

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.


Never understood why Starbucks is so popular.

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Tin Tin has come out of retirement.
> 
> View attachment 669173
> View attachment 669174


Is Snowie ok?

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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.


Allegedly, from 12,000 to 20,000 RF troops were tied up in Mariupol until the end of April/early May. Not counting the air force.

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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

Good maps.

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## SaparotRob (May 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed. I think Putin (knowingly or not) has staked his regime upon a successful defeat of Ukraine, and explaining a defeat will only reinforce impression that the 15,000-20,000 Russian body-bags arriving home will undercut his alleged competence and support.


Weren't the Russians incinerating countless bodies? It's still going to be hard to cover up all the dead from both sides even if most of the Russian losses are from Russia's poorest regions.

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## Dimlee (May 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict.


I like this one "not Georgians", so typical. Whenever they have their nose blooded, they pretend that it was not the opponent (who was so weak and insignificant) but someone else in the background. Actually, there were Ukrainian experts but they worked along with Georgian crews. 
After the Winter War, Stalin said in his famous speech: "we defeated not just Finns - that was not a big deal. We defeated the equipment, tactics and strategy of the most developed countries of Europe."

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## at6 (May 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> PS Herr Jagdflieger…
> 
> Wenn du Respekt willst, musst du ihn auch geben. Treten Sie vom Pferd herunter.


I was able to get a vague understanding of your post. Me and my rusty a$$ German.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 17, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.
> 
> McDonalds coffee (even their barista-made stuff) is crap - worse than their burgers.



I agree. Never cared for their coffee either.


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## Admiral Beez (May 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Good maps.
> View attachment 669189



I like how the map shows the limited extent of Russian held territory north of Crimea, I assume it’s limited to a few highway corridors.

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## Crimea_River (May 17, 2022)

Glider said:


> ....If I were Putin I would sack all my present advisors and give this guy the job, lets hope he doesn't.


No. If you were Putin, you'd keep all your weak yes-men and buy this guy an arsenic-flavoured coffee.

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## WARSPITER (May 17, 2022)

McDonalds system for franchising is clever. Buy the property then franchise. The property is then paid for under the franchise.

McDonalds could stop bothering with the business altogether and they are still way in front. The brands main advantage is that
it has allowed McDonalds to buy prime real estate in nearly every major city on the planet.

McDonalds is the largest private real estate owner in the World with over 30 billion dollars of land.

Another snippet - McDonalds makes the most profit on soft drinks and chips (fries).

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## gumbyk (May 17, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> McDonalds is the largest private real estate owner in the World with over 30 billion dollars of land.


Peanuts... What do you reckon Vatican City (Roman Catholic Church) is worth? Not to mention the other 70,000,000 Hectares they own.

Or Gina Reinhart - 12,000,000 Hectares of mines and farmland?

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## pgeno71 (May 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems Putin is micromanaging the war in Ucraine
> Diden''t Hitler also used to micromanage his armies?
> 
> 
> ...


I believe LBJ meddled in Vietnam planning as well, but to lesser extent.

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## Jagdflieger (May 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded?


I guess the same way Hitler did - in the defense of the Father..ah...Motherland

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## WARSPITER (May 17, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Peanuts... What do you reckon Vatican City (Roman Catholic Church) is worth? Not to mention the other 70,000,000 Hectares they own.
> 
> Or Gina Reinhart - 12,000,000 Hectares of mines and farmland?


As I posted, real estate in the most expensive parts of cities around the world. Value wise, McDonalds real estate holdings are the highest.


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## at6 (May 18, 2022)

Still Turkey opposing Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey is not reliable as an ally when they purchased Russian equipment and virtually caters to Pootass. Turkey might consider that if they are dropped from NATO, Sweden and Finland can be admitted by the remaining members.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> Still Turkey opposing Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey is not reliable as an ally when they purchased Russian equipment and virtually caters to Pootass. Turkey might consider that if they are dropped from NATO, Sweden and Finland can be admitted by the remaining members.



There's no formal process for expelling a member nation from NATO. Legal experts -- and I'm not one, so don't shoot me if I'm misunderstanding -- argue that NATO's requirements for commitments to democracy etc mean that a member nation can be shunned for not upholding those stated values, and that that nation may not therefore be able to appeal to Article Five (which, let's face it, is NATO's _raison d'etre_), which could be _de facto_ expulsion if not _de jure_.

I've been doing some reading on this the last couple of days but it all seems pretty murky to me.

As I wrote upthread, I'd trade Turkey away for Sweden and Finland any day of the week. Erdogan's commitment to democracy is very questionable in my view, and while we can be (and I am) happy that Turkish drones in Ukrainian service are shooting the shit out of the Russians, that's only a small piece in the geopolitical puzzle. As 

 buffnut453
noted above, diplomacy and foreign relations are a lot more complex that your man in the street might think.


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## MiTasol (May 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I read Tintin regularly when I lived in Iran, we got the English version of the comic books usually a couple of months after Euro pub.



I always preferred Asterix

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I always preferred Asterix



I'm clueless about this.


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## swampyankee (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Without a victory how does Putin explain away the estimated 20,000 dead and the tens of thousands returning wounded? When the Kursk sank Putin took a lot of unprecedented public criticism for the lost 118 Russian sons on that submarine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Explanation? Easy: fake news disseminated by an anti-Russian media. Those family members of the dead? Paid stooges.


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## Dimlee (May 18, 2022)

Czech friends will appreciate it.

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## MiTasol (May 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm clueless about this.



Tintin and Asterix are comics written by French or Belgium (from memory) cartoonists that poke fun at history and mankind in general. To me, the early Asterix were far better than Tintin but I have to admit the later Asterix were not up to the quality of the earlier ones and the films based on the books were, to me, substandard. There are probably wackypedia pages on both

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## MiTasol (May 18, 2022)

It appears that Ukraine may have shot a few shells into Russia and killed a civilian.

No doubt the Kremlin and it's toadies will cry foul and say that this is an act of war or illegal or some other such rubbish. The usual dictators and toadies "do as I say not as I do" hypocrisy.

I find it interesting that Russia claims they invaded Ukraine to put a buffer between Russia and NATO but the end result of a successful invasion would have been that Russia's new borders would have been touching NATO countries. Typical political double speak.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd be surprised if any of these defenders survive Russian captivity, given that 1) their existence was cited as a reason for invading Ukraine, 2) their staunch defense was a great embarrassment to Russian arms, and 3) if they return to Ukraine and tell their story it will likely be very inspiring to their nation.





Macandy said:


> The defenders of Azostahl have done their duty, and far more than anyone could have asked or expected.
> 
> They bought time for Ukraine to train and equip a new army that's now entering the field with superior NATO supplied weaponry.





buffnut453 said:


> Russia has asked its Supreme Court to designate Ukraine's Azov Regiment as a terrorist organisation.
> 
> According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the Justice Ministry in Moscow has said a court case "on recognising the Ukrainian paramilitary nationalist association 'Azov' (other names used: the 'Azov' battalion, 'Azov' regiment) as a terrorist organisation


Deliberate or not, this is a masterful way for Ukraine to dispose of a militarily effective but idealogically and politically troublesome element of their military in a heroic blaze of glory. The Azov vets would likely have been a difficult impediment to the liberalization and westernization of postwar Ukraine, and will probably find Russia a more comfortable fit for their totalitarian tendencies, provided they survive the gulag.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Deliberate or not, this is a masterful way for Ukraine to dispose of a militarily effective but idealogically and politically troublesome element of their military in a heroic blaze of glory.


Agreed. No one wants John Rambo back in town once he’s successfully brutalized the enemy.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. No one wants John Rambo back in town once he’s successfully brutalized the enemy.


Artfully put!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 18, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Tintin and Asterix are comics written by French or Belgium (from memory) cartoonists that poke fun at history and mankind in general. To me, the early Asterix were far better than Tintin but I have to admit the later Asterix were not up to the quality of the earlier ones and the films based on the books were, to me, substandard. There are probably wackypedia pages on both


Tintín belgian, Astérix french.


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## gumbyk (May 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> Still Turkey opposing Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey is not reliable as an ally when they purchased Russian equipment and virtually caters to Pootass. Turkey might consider that if they are dropped from NATO, Sweden and Finland can be admitted by the remaining members.


Some analyses that I've read say that Turkey are posturing for lifting of U.S embargoes. Makes sense now that they've seen the effectiveness of the Russian equipment they've now got.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Some analyses that I've read say that Turkey are posturing for lifting of U.S embargoes. Makes sense now that they've seen the effectiveness of the Russian equipment they've now got.


The British (and allies) should have kept Constantinople and both sides of the Bosphorus strait after 1922. Why did thousands of Imperial troops and sailors die at Gallipoli otherwise? One hundred years later we’d not need Turkey now.














Occupation of Constantinople - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## vikingBerserker (May 18, 2022)

Regardless of the quality of their coffee and burgers, their fries are the best.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Regardless of the quality of their coffee and burgers, their fries are the best.


Whose? McDs? Not since July 1990






McDonald’s Broke My Heart | Revisionist History


They made the world’s greatest French Fry. Then they threw it away.




www.pushkin.fm

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## vikingBerserker (May 18, 2022)

Still love them. Thin, crispy and salty sticks of happiness.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

_KYIV, May 18 (Reuters) - A Russian soldier accused of war crimes in Ukraine pleaded guilty on Wednesday to killing an elderly unarmed civilian.

Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old Russian tank commander, entered his plea in a Kyiv district court hearing its first war crimes trial against a Russian soldier who took part in Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion. read more

In a trial that has huge symbolic importance for Kyiv, Shishimarin is charged with murdering a 62-year-old civilian in the northeast Ukrainian village of Chupakhivka on Feb. 28. If convicted, he faces up to life imprisonment.

[...]

After guards led Shishimarin into the court in handcuffs, he was asked by the judge if he accepted the charge against him. He confirmed that he did.


Ukrainian state prosecutors have said Shishimarin and four other Russian servicemen fired at and stole a privately owned car to escape after their column was targeted by Ukrainian forces.

The Russian soldiers drove into the village of Chupakhivka where they saw an unarmed resident riding a bicycle and talking on his phone, they said.

They said Shishimarin was ordered by another serviceman to kill the civilian to prevent him reporting on the Russians' presence and fired several shots through the open window of the car with an assault rifle at the civilian's head. The civilian died on the spot._









Russian soldier pleads guilty in war crimes trial in Ukraine


A Russian soldier accused of war crimes in Ukraine pleaded guilty on Wednesday to killing an elderly unarmed civilian.




www.reuters.com

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## GrauGeist (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Whose? McDs? Not since July 1990
> 
> 
> 
> ...





vikingBerserker said:


> Still love them. Thin, crispy and salty sticks of happiness.


The 90's were the end of tastey fast-food fries for many chains.

There's still some good ones to be found, though.

This would a great discussion in the food thread:
"Who has the best fries" (or chips, as our friends across the big water call them).

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

First evidences of Russia facing weapon sales "complications".








India halts Ka-31 helicopter deal with Russia


India asked to buy Ka-31 helicopters from Russia in May 2019, but the acquisition program faced inordinate delays due to the coronavirus pandemic and the platform’s high price tag.




www.defensenews.com





The war hasn't been a great sales showcase for Russian hardware, Javelins otoh ...

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Messaging about Russian "difficulties" in Ukraine continues to leak out. Following Col Khodarenok's TV piece earlier this week, we now have a deputy secretary of Putin's Security Council also acknowledging "difficulties". Interesting analysis from the BBC on this topic via the link below:

_Another pro-Kremlin voice has admitted to "difficulties" in the war with Ukraine, which Russia calls a 'special military operation'.

But Rashid Nurgaliyev, a deputy secretary of Vladimir Putin's Security Council, insisted Russia would achieve its objectives - including the "denazification of Ukraine".

It follows remarks by a retired colonel and military analyst on primetime Russian TV earlier this week, in which Mikhail Khodarenok warned "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse".

"We are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it," said Khodarenok, while appearing on flagship talk show 60 Minutes.

Russia's Security Council is today holding a meeting with nearly 100 foreign ambassadors to discuss the threats posed by "closed laboratories" and "neo-Nazism".

Nurgaliyev told the gathered ambassadors: "In spite of all the existing difficulties, the special military operation will be completed - while its objectives, including the ones to do with the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, [and] defence of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic will be carried out in full."

His remarks were reported by Russia's Interfax news agency.

BBC Russia editor Steve Rosenberg has suggested the Kremlin may be preparing the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the invasion._


If the Kremlin is prepping the ground to release some bad news to the Russian public, then the world will be watching the reaction. As has been noted before, the loss of the Kursk generated a lot of backlash. If the bad news isn't received stoically, then we may see an increase in dissent over the war special operation in Ukraine.

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## at6 (May 18, 2022)

If you think McFries are tasty, you'll love the flavor of the container.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Messaging about Russian "difficulties" in Ukraine continues to leak out. Following Col Khodarenok's TV piece earlier this week, we now have a deputy secretary of Putin's Security Council also acknowledging "difficulties". Interesting analysis from the BBC on this topic via the link below:
> 
> _Another pro-Kremlin voice has admitted to "difficulties" in the war with Ukraine, which Russia calls a 'special military operation'.
> 
> ...


"*stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.*" lol

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/17/thanks-vladimir-putin-nato-stronger-than-ever-sweden-finland-russia-ukraine/

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

US will work with Finland and Sweden if outside aggression threatens their national security during the NATO application process:
_
President Biden says the United States will work with Finland and Sweden in event of any outside "aggression" which could threaten national security while their Nato membership is under review.

The US president reiterated his support for Sweden and Finland's bid to join Nato, saying it would "further strengthen our defence cooperation" and benefit the entire alliance.

The US is the latest country to offer support to the two countries in the event of any aggression, with several others offering similar assurances.

Last week the UK agreed a mutual security pact with both Nordic nations, ahead of their decision to apply for Nato membership - a decision which has been taken in the light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine._


For all those who were ridiculing Boris Johnson last week...maybe now his leaning forward might be acknowledged as necessary and helping provide impetus to other NATO Allies to follow suit?

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

The source for this article is the Ukrainian MOD so it probably needs to be taken with a dose (rather than a grain) of salt...however, the specific identification of a Russian unit provides some grounds to believe there are elements of truth to the story:
_
Russian troops are increasingly refusing to take part in combat in Ukraine, the Ukrainian defence ministry's main intelligence directorate says.

In a post on the Telegram messenging service, it says several units of the 70th Guards Motorised Regiment have openly refused to take part in the war and demanded that they be returned to the areas where they are normally deployed.

Unit commanders are making every effort to hide the cases of disobedience, the directorate says, with the most un-cooperative servicemen "sent to the most dangerous area of the front-line in the hope that they would be killed quickly", the post claims.

The agency says the Russian Federal Security Service has decided to infiltrate the regiment's units with "agents and informants".

The BBC is not able to verify this information independently_


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## Snautzer01 (May 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> For all those who were ridiculing Boris Johnson last week...maybe now his leaning forward might be acknowledged as necessary and helping provide impetus to other NATO Allies to follow suit?


No. Still words


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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> No.



So helping guarantee Finnish and Swedish security during their transition to becoming NATO members isn't a good idea?


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## Snautzer01 (May 18, 2022)

Boris will twist on a dime. Lied when he was a reporter in Brussels (big time) and lied some more in deep corona time just to start with the obvious ones.
Boris is all about Boris. And full of it.
Not a man nor leader that one can trust to do the right thing, amusing as he can be in tv shows.

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## Snautzer01 (May 18, 2022)

Besides perhaps he knows what Turky will do. Block. And words again.


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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Boris will twist on a dime. Lied when he was a reporter in Brussels (big time) and lied some more in deep corona time just to start with the obvious ones.
> Boris is all about Boris. And full of it.
> Not a man nor leader that one can trust to do the right thing, amusing as he can be in tv shows.



Don't disagree...but how is that different than most politicians who have egos bigger than the world?

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Besides perhaps he knows what Turky will do. Block. And words again.



Well, he didn't know that because the Turkey issue only came out in the past few days...unless you subscribe to the view that national leaders can predict the future?

And are the actions by Norway, Denmark, Iceland and, now, the US merely words? Is the NATO Alliance itself merely words with no meaning or substance behind it? 

Trust me, I don't like Johnson. I think he's an idiot. However, on this occasion I think he did the right thing and, since he implemented a signed agreement with both Finland and Sweden, it's rather more than just a photo opportunity, IMHO.

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## Snautzer01 (May 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Don't disagree...but how is that different than most politicians who have egos bigger than the world?


Because some put weight in his words. His words are light. Fleeting in the wind knowing that the broehaha words will be blocked. And so the actions that should follow the words will be blocked.
He is not stupid just not to be trusted. And yes most knew Turkey will through a fit being bypassed for nato.


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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

I wonder what Gorbachev, now aged 91 thinks of all this.

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Because some put weight in his words. His words are light. Fleeting in the wind knowing that the broehaha words will be blocked. And so the actions that should follow the words will be blocked.



People put weight in the words of any politician, otherwise they wouldn't get elected. And all politicians make statements that they know will be blocked. Boris is clearly a lightning rod for you but, frankly, I don't think he's much different than most politicians who use partial truths or even outright lies to stir up the electorate. 

However, the key point here is that the support for Finland and Sweden is more than just the words of Boris. They are formal, signed, documentary agreements between the UK, Finland and Sweden. Finland and Sweden know what the UK has signed up to, and vice-versa. 

Undoubtedly, there may be efforts to wriggle out of them if push comes to shove...but, again, the simple signing of these agreements sends a message to Moscow. That's the really important part here...deterring Putin from doing something even more stupid than he's doing today.

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## Snautzer01 (May 18, 2022)

I see what you are saying, i do. But as i hope you see too that i do not trust anything Boris has signed or agreed upon for a reason.
Brexit left for me a ( leave or stay ) an inside of how he works. Signed papers is not a deal in stone for him. Now perhaps i am seeing this wrong as i am not in higher places nor bare responsibility for a nation. Just my very simple observation. History of which i know just a little is paved whith signed agreement pacts. It is the one who signed it that gives it weight in the future.
Let us discuss this further in the future when more can be said. I will be very happy when i am wrong about this event. And state it on this board as i have stated my doubts.
I have a soft spot for Blighty, so i hope they will come true.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

Seems that unrest is building up in Russia. Worth a read.









‘I look at my government differently’: losses in Ukraine test Russians’ faith


Information about the damage being done in Ukraine is leaking out, and discouraging some of those who used to back the war




www.theguardian.com

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I see what you are saying, i do. But as i hope you see too that i do not trust anything Boris has signed or agreed upon for a reason.
> Brexit left for me a ( leave or stay ) an inside of how he works. Signed papers is not a deal in stone for him. Now perhaps i am seeing this wrong as i am not in higher places nor bare responsibility for a nation. Just my very simple observation. History of which i know just a little is paved whith signed agreement pacts. It is the one who signed it that gives it weight in the future.
> Let us discuss this further in the future when more can be said. I will be very happy when i am wrong about this event. And state it on this board as i have stated my doubts.
> I have a soft spot for Blighty, so i hope they will come true.



My personal view is that I strenuously hope that the agreements between the UK, Finland and Sweden are never put to the test. I hope for a smooth and rapid transition for Finland and Sweden to becoming NATO members (undoubtedly with some side-deals done to bring Turkey onboard). 

I'm glad to see other NATO members offering support to Finland and Sweden during the transition because that's the most critical period. Putin may see it as a closing window of opportunity and hence do something really, REALLY stupid. Deterring such action must be a priority for western democracies if we're to stop the current war from spreading.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Boris will twist on a dime.


This reminded me of the conundrum particular to constitutional monarchies. When Churchill met with FDR, Stalin and other presidents he was not actually equal in authority or status. Churchill, nor Boris can speak entirely for the country as its head of state, because that's not who they are. When they met in August 1941 off Newfoundland, as the representative of King George VI, Churchill was delivering his credentials to President Roosevelt, the monarch's equal as head of state. Boris's equal in Finland is Prime Minister Sanna Marin, not President Sauli Niinistö. It may be splitting hairs, but when Boris commits to helping Finland, he commits his specific government, not his state. And the commitments of governments can change on the whim of a parliamentary vote.

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## buffnut453 (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This reminded me of the conundrum particular to constitutional monarchies. When Churchill met with FDR, Stalin and other presidents he was not actually equal in authority or status. Churchill, nor Boris can speak entirely for the country as its head of state, because that's not who they are. When they met in August 1941 off Newfoundland, as the representative of King George VI, Churchill was delivering his credentials to President Roosevelt, the monarch's equal as head of state. Boris's equal in Finland is Prime Minister Sanna Marin, not President Sauli Niinistö. It may be splitting hairs, but when Boris commits to helping Finland, he commits his specific government, not his state. And the commitments of governments can change on the whim of a parliamentary vote.



I think you're making a distinction that has no practical impact in reality. For example, the US President (within the checks and balances inherent in the US democratic system) can change direction on a whim, and so US commitments are equally subject to change every 4 years...or even more frequently since, unlike parliamentary democracies, the US democratic process does not infer a national mandate for action that spans both the Office of the President and Congress.

One only has to look at the various agreements that the US pulled out of during the last administration as examples of this, including the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, Paris Climate Accord, UN Human Rights Council, UN Relief and Works Agency, World Health Organization, UNESCO etc. I'm not commenting on the rights or wrongs of any of these decisions. I'm merely pointing out that constitutional monarchies are no more prone to withdrawing from agreements than any other form of government.

One other note peculiar to the UK, at least, is that the political government serves at the monarch's pleasure. It's one of the checks and balances in the system. Ergo, the Prime Minister does commit the United Kingdom to treaties etc. However, the monarch can insert themselves into the equation if necessary and if it is deemed that the government is acting illegally or contrary to the will of the people. That's one of the reasons why officers in the British military have their commissioning scrolls (facsimile) signed by the Queen because it gives them the authority to refuse any orders from politicians that are without legal authority.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

You too, Switzerland?








Analysis: Neutral Switzerland leans closer to NATO in response to Russia


Switzerland's fabled neutral status is about to face its biggest test in decades, with the defence ministry tilting closer to Western military powers in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## RogerdeLluria (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Gorbachev, now aged 91 thinks of all this.


Looks like a mixed bag.

He opposes the war and Putin








Mikhail Gorbachev: "Never again war" - Sonnenseite - Ökologische Kommunikation mit Franz Alt


On March 2, the great Russian peace lover Mikhail Gorbachev turned 91. It was the seventh day of Putin's war in Ukraine. © Benevento Gorbachev is the son




www.sonnenseite.com





But, he defended the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and accused the West and NATO of destroying the structure of European security by expanding its alliance.








Gorbachev warns of nukes over Ukraine – DW – 01/09/2015


Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has warned that the crisis in Ukraine could lead to a major war, or even a nuclear war. In an interview with a German magazine, he criticized both Russia and the West.




www.dw.com

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## GrauGeist (May 18, 2022)

Gorbachev (like many others) keep insisting that NATO's expansion is creating a "situation".

But they're not admitting (or accepting) the fact that Putin's "special operation" upset the status quo and woke NATO from it's nap.

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## Glider (May 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> You too, Switzerland?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Now if Switzerland would give German permission to pass the ammunition for the Gepards, then maybe Germany can send them to the Ukraine

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## vikingBerserker (May 18, 2022)

Man, that's just surprising to me.


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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That's one of the reasons why officers in the British military have their commissioning scrolls (facsimile) signed by the Queen because it gives them the authority to refuse any orders from politicians that are without legal authority.


This reminded me of this scene.


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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Boris will twist on a dime. Lied when he was a reporter in Brussels (big time) and lied some more in deep corona time just to start with the obvious ones.
> Boris is all about Boris. And full of it.
> Not a man nor leader that one can trust to do the right thing, amusing as he can be in tv shows.



Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I liked his signing onto a common defense with the two countries, and if it helps to influence other NATO countries to do the same, all the better.

None of this is to say I'm a fan of his. From what I know of him from my distant vantage, he does strike me as a schmuck. But his giving reassurance to the Nordic countries -- in addition to burnishing his sagging image -- also gives a sense of security to those countries, especially now that that rat-fink Erdogan is playing Putin's hand for him.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

In addition to the sanctions -- and perhaps because of them, and the Russian need to replace their own destroyed/captured equipment -- India is hurrying its efforts to diversify its arms-acquisitions:

_NEW DELHI, May 18 (Reuters) - India is looking to domestic firms and eastern European nations for military gear and ammunition, as the world's biggest buyer of Russian arms seeks alternative suppliers at a time when Moscow is fighting a war with Ukraine and facing sanctions.

New Delhi has long talked of diversifying the suppliers to its huge armed forces, and even making more equipment at home, objectives that have taken on new urgency since Russia's invasion, two government officials and a defence source said.

India has identified 25.15 billion rupees ($324 million) worth of defence equipment it wants domestic firms to make this year, and avoid buying abroad, according to an online platform where the defence ministry lists its needs.

"The present world order and geopolitical scenario, which is very, very turbulent, has also taught us a lesson," Air Marshal Vibhas Pande, who leads maintenance operations for the Indian Air Force, said this month.

"If we want to provide certainty and stability ... the only option is to have a totally self-reliant or self-sustained supply chain mechanism established within the country," Pande told defence manufacturers in New Delhi.

However, he did not specifically mention the conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special military operation".

The Indian air force is looking for equipment such as ejection pods for Russian-designed Sukhoi fighter jets and propellers for Ukraine-made Antonov transport aircraft, another document showed.

Within three years, Pande said, the air force aimed to source all tyres and batteries for critical aircraft fleets from domestic firms such as MRF (MRF.NS).

India aims to produce as much as half its defence equipment at home, a senior government official said on condition of anonymity.

The defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on India's reliance on Moscow for military hardware and whether the war in Ukraine and Russia's slow progress, were concerns.

Brahma Chellaney, a defence and strategic affairs analyst in New Delhi, said Russian equipment have served India well in the past though in recent years it has stepped up purchases from countries such as the United States, France and Israel.

"Defence transition is always a slow evolutionary process. You can't overnight switch suppliers," he said.

India employs 1.38 million people in its armed forces and is one of the world's largest arms importers, spending $12.4 billion between 2018 and 2021, with Russia accounting for $5.51 billion, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database shows.

The Indian Army is equipped with Russian-made tanks and Kalashnikov rifles. Its air force uses Sukhoi fighter jets and Mi-17 transport helicopters, while the navy's aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya was formerly part of the Russian naval fleet._









India, world's biggest buyer of Russian arms, looks to diversify suppliers


India is looking to domestic firms and eastern European nations for military gear and ammunition, as the world's biggest buyer of Russian arms seeks alternative suppliers at a time when Moscow is fighting a war with Ukraine and facing sanctions.




www.reuters.com





Less income for Russia is a good thing. Hit 'em where it hurts.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


>




He's right about the need for air and naval superiority for Ukraine to retake Snake Island, but as for targeting the howitzers and the ability of the Russian high leadership to refocus, yeah, it sounds like someone gave him a rocket after his scathing criticism.

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## GrauGeist (May 18, 2022)

Surprised India hasn't looked to China as an alternative for military hardware.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Surprised India hasn't looked to China as an alternative for military hardware.


They hate each other. China supplies Pakistan and its opposition to India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2022_China–India_skirmishes

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## Jagdflieger (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They hate each other. China supplies Pakistan and its opposition to India.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2022_China–India_skirmishes


"HATE",? certainly not


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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> "HATE",? certainly not


Well, true. Pragmatism will prevail. The collapse of Russia’s prestige and capabilities will alter many international relationships.


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## Jagdflieger (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, true. Pragmatism will prevail. The collapse of Russia’s prestige and capabilities will alter many international relationships.


India's imports from China rose to $97.5 billion in the calendar year 2021, up 46.1 per cent from $66.7 billion in 2020, which was impacted by Covid restrictions, as per data from the China General Administration of Customs.

India's exports to China also grew to a record high of $28.1 billion in 2021, up 34.9 per cent from $20.9 billion in 2020. 

According to the data, India's total trade with China in 2021 was worth $125.7 billion.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> India's imports from China rose to $97.5 billion in the calendar year 2021,


Well, we all need our cheap electronics and shoes from China. Even the Indians.

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## at6 (May 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Gorbachev, now aged 91 thinks of all this.


I didn't know that "Gorby" was still alive.

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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> I didn't know that "Gorby" was still alive.


He’s the second oldest living Russian leader by far, bested only by the 96 y/o Vyacheslav Molotov. 

Boris Yeltsin, died 2007, aged 76
Vladimir Ivashko, died in 1994 aged 62
Konstantin Chernenko died in 1985 aged 73
Yuri Andropov died 1984 aged 69
Leonid Brezhnev died 1982 aged 75
Nikita Khrushchev died 1971 aged 77
Joseph Stalin died 1953 aged 74
Nikolay Krestinsky died 1938, aged 54

In October Putin will be 70. If he makes it to 75 it’ll be unexpected, especially with his apparent illness.


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## AAIR (May 18, 2022)

Talk earlier in this thread about how someone should buy civilian MiGs for Ukraine... looks like it may have happened according to Newsweek:
Pakistani Billionaire Buys Fighter Jets for Ukraine, His Famous Wife Says

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## fubar57 (May 18, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Ah, there is an ignore button. First time I've needed it.


I've used it three times, one the same, one to shorten up threads from over quotes and one copy/paste king


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## Admiral Beez (May 18, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Pakistani Billionaire Buys Fighter Jets for Ukraine, His Famous Wife Says


How many fighters? Which models? Where do they come from? 

I bet Ukraine could do wonders with a some squadrons of PAC JF-17s. It was in contention before the war.









Ukrainian Air Force Hunts for New Fighter jets


A Ukraine Air Force (UAF) delegation headed by Colonel General Sergii Drozdov, UAF Commander visited Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAF) Kamra on March 06 this year setting off speculation that Kie…




www.globaldefensecorp.com













Ukraine To Spend $12 Billion To Replace Soviet-era Fighters And SAM


A total of $12 billion — this is how much Ukraine should spend in the next 15 years in order to renovate its rapidly aging and weakening airpower, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. A …




www.globaldefensecorp.com

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## SaparotRob (May 18, 2022)

Yeah, this is turning comical. Replacing Soviet equipment with cheap Chinese knock-offs.

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## GrauGeist (May 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Yeah, this is turning comical. Replacing Soviet equipment with cheap Chinese knock-offs.


Better still, destroying Russian targets with Soviet knock-offs made in a Communist country.

If that's not the ultimate in irony, I don't know what is.

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## SaparotRob (May 18, 2022)

Didn't China acquire Saab automotive a few years back?

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## GrauGeist (May 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Didn't China acquire Saab automotive a few years back?


The Automotive division of SAAB, yes.

SAAB Aerospace is still owned by the Wallenberg family. They sold the auto division because it was operating in the red.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

_HELSINKI, May 18 (Reuters) - Finland and Sweden will buy portable firearms and anti-tank weapons together, Finland's defence ministry said on Wednesday, as the two Nordic country's handed in their applications to join the Western military alliance NATO.

The two countries will step up their cooperation in defence procurement by Finland joining an agreement to acquire anti-tank weapons from Swedish weapons maker Saab Dynamics, a subsidiary of Saab (SAABb.ST), the ministry said.

Finland's defence minister Antti Kaikkonen also authorised preparations for a joint purchase of small fire arms including assault rifles, shotguns and arms for personal protection, the ministry said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO._









Finland and Sweden to buy firearms, anti-tank weapons together


Finland and Sweden will buy portable firearms and anti-tank weapons together, Finland's defence ministry said on Wednesday, as the two Nordic country's handed in their applications to join the Western military alliance NATO.




www.reuters.com





Driving nations against it was probably not Putin's goal.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> "HATE",? certainly not




_NEW DELHI — High in the Himalayas, an enormous fistfight erupted in early May between the soldiers of China and India. Brawls at 14,000 feet along their inhospitable and disputed frontier are not terribly unusual, but what happened next was.

A few days later, Chinese troops confronted Indian soldiers again, this time at several other remote border points in the Himalayas, some more than 1,000 miles apart. Since then both armies have rushed in thousands of reinforcements. Indian analysts say that China has beefed up its forces with dump trucks, excavators, troop carriers, artillery and armored vehicles and that China is now occupying Indian territory.

No shots have been fired, as the de facto border code dictates, but the soldiers have fought fiercely with rocks, wooden clubs and their hands in a handful of clashes. In one melee at the glacial lake Pangong Tso, several Indian troops were hurt badly enough that they had to be evacuated by helicopter, and Indian analysts said Chinese troops were injured as well.

Nobody thinks China and India are about to go to war. But the escalating buildup has turned into their most serious confrontation since 2017 and may be a sign of more trouble to come as the world’s two most populous countries increasingly bump up against each other in one of the bleakest and most remote borderlands on earth._









China and India Brawl at 14,000 Feet Along the Border (Published 2020)


As China projects its power across Asia, and along the disputed India-China border in the Himalayas, India is feeling surrounded. Both sides insist they don’t want a war, but thousands of troops have been sent.




www.nytimes.com





While "hate" may be a strong word, "tension" seems fairly appropriate.

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## SaparotRob (May 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Automotive division of SAAB, yes.
> 
> SAAB Aerospace is still owned by the Wallenberg family. They sold the auto division because it was operating in the red.


So shouldn't China then be justified in protecting its fellow Saab speaking citizens of Saab Aero?

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## GrauGeist (May 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So shouldn't China then be justified in protecting its fellow Saab speaking citizens of Saab Aero?


If that's the case, then we'll lose a portion of San Francisco, too...

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## J_P_C (May 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Yeah, this is turning comical. Replacing Soviet equipment with cheap Chinese knock-offs.


It will not be JF-17 for sure -this airplane is using RD-93 engine made by orcs and avionics made in PRC. It means seling it to Ukraine is highly, highly improbable. Above all prgress in relation to Mig-29 and Su-27 in Ukrainian inventory will be marginal at best. Personally i will not be surprised if they will be supplied with surplus JAS-39C/D.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 19, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> It will not be JF-17 for sure -this airplane is using RD-93 engine made by orcs and avionics made in PRC. It means seling it to Ukraine is highly, highly improbable. Above all prgress in relation to Mig-29 and Su-27 in Ukrainian inventory will be marginal at best. Personally i will not be surprised if they will be supplied with surplus JAS-39C/D.


Those where prewar plans. The war changed everything. So far they are being provided with surplus or retired Migs or "mig parts", however I guess they will run out fast.
Total production of JAS-39 < 300, not many surplus around.

The only viable option is surplus F-16, total production was almost 5000, I guess surplus F-16 are much more abundant. And some countries are already replacing them.
A few weeks ago I read unconfirmed rumours that a selected group of Ukranian pilots where already training on F-16s, but haven't seen any evidence since then.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 19, 2022)

Guess Russians don't know how Wikipedia works.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 19, 2022)

Some evidence of purges going on.
According to UK Defence Intel, two Russian senior commanders were "suspended" due to their poor performance in Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

Whoops, my last post was referring to something from last summer. Deleted.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 19, 2022)

Found this article very interesting.









The Russian Military’s People Problem


It’s hard for Moscow to win while mistreating its soldiers.




www.foreignaffairs.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Found this article very interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Tried to read this article, but it's stuck in the loading cycle.


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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Tried to read this article, but it's stuck in the loading cycle.


Here you go.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Here you go.



Thanks, brotha.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

From that article:

_Rather, they are linked by a core underlying theme: the military's lack of concern for the lives and well-being of its personnel.In Ukraine, the Russian military struggles to retrieve the bodies of its dead, obscures casualties, and is indifferent to its worried military families.It may spend billions of dollars on new equipment, but it does not properly treat soldiers' injuries, and it generally does not appear to care tremendously whether troops are traumatized.

[...]

The Russian military's disregard for its soldiers has done more than undermine their combat performance.It has also tanked their morale and will to fight. Officers steal the contents of care packages so routinely that some soldiers have called their mothers and told them not to bother sending anything. Officials forget to pay soldiers their entitled combat pay, and units abandon the bodies of the fallen.It is little wonder, then, that some Russian troops simply melted away from the conflict, deserting fully functional modernized equipment in Ukrainian fields. Other soldiers have called their mothers to tell them they were considering shooting themselves in the leg so they could leave.
_

This is a basic violation of the agreement any nation makes with its fighting men, that they will be taken care of in the case of maiming or death. Cases of desertion, or the reports we hear of lackluster execution of orders -- or stark refusal of orders -- are probably a direct result of this abrogation of the tacit agreement.


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## Crimea_River (May 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Driving nations against it was probably not Putin's goal.



Certainly not a goal but, as a former intelligence chief, he must have seen this as a risk, if not a probability. It would seem logical to me that risk scenarios would be part of the planning cycle and that responses to the occurrence of such scenarios would have been prepared beforehand. That's why I find the apparent mixed messages about Finland and Sweden joining NATO puzzling. One day it was met with threats of severe consequences and the next day it was downplayed with a metaphoric shoulder-shrug.

The whole war has been a major Russian cluster-f*ck from the start.

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Certainly not a goal but, as a former intelligence chief, he must have seen this as a risk, if not a probability.


IDK, I think the global response to this invasion is almost unprecedented. Putin couldn't have anticipated that nations as disparate as New Zealand, China, Brazil and India would be sending aid to Ukraine. It truly is a case of the World (less Africa and some other grey bits below) vs. Russia. 














List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





On that score, I'd like to see South Africa contribute. Their ZT3 Ingwe ATGM would be useful against IFVs and the G6 Rhino self-propelled howitzer looks competitive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Certainly not a goal but, as a former intelligence chief, he must have seen this as a risk, if not a probability. It would seem logical to me that risk scenarios would be part of the planning cycle and that responses to the occurrence of such scenarios would have been prepared beforehand.



It baffles me that a career spook wouldn't see the obvious risk of blowback of this invasion. As I wrote far, far upthread, this is Putin's greatest blunder. He completely misread the willingness of Ukraine to fight, the ability of NATO to set aside squabbles and coalesce around the common cause, and the ability of the Russian military to function effectively. Three key elements he got completely and totally wrong.

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## Crimea_River (May 19, 2022)

I agree 100%. It concerns me that it opens the possibility of other blunders, some whose response would previously have been "he wouldn't be that stupid".

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## Crimea_River (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, I think the global response to this invasion is almost unprecedented. Putin couldn't have anticipated that nations as disparate as New Zealand, China, Brazil and India would be sending aid to Ukraine. It truly is a case of the World (less Africa and some other grey bits below) vs. Russia.
> 
> View attachment 669459
> 
> ...



The comments are about NATO expansion, not support for Ukraine.

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## Dimlee (May 19, 2022)

So, Boris just announced "shore-to-ship" missiles.
What would they be, I wonder. Hopefully, something heavier and longer-ranged than Brimstone and faster than Neptune...

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> So, Boris just announced "shore-to-ship" missiles.
> What would they be, I wonder. Hopefully, something heavier and longer-ranged than Brimstone and faster than Neptune...


It'll be something from what the below article calls "the antique collection".









Can the UK supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine? | Navy Lookout







www.navylookout.com





_"Let us imagine the UK is able to supply a few working Harpoons to Ukraine. They would need to be flown in, mounted on sturdy trailers so they are mobile and concealable to avoid detection by Russian Satellites and drones. The launch computers would require integration and re-programming for land-based operation. Before any attack can be mounted, the missiles would have to be fed with targeting data from a coastal radar or other real-time intelligence sources and competent people assigned to operate the system."_

On the plus side, this war is a great way for Britain to dispose of its older ordnance without having to follow all the bureaucratic and environmental regulations concerning their storage. Have a read through JSP 520 Safety and Environmental Management of Ordnance, Munitions and Explosives over the Equipment Acquisition Cycle if you fancy a snooze. Instead the Brits can dispose the old weapons at their intended Russian targets, get new weapons and support the munitions industry.

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## fubar57 (May 19, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The whole war has been a major Russian cluster-f*ck from the start.

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## Dimlee (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, I think the global response to this invasion is almost unprecedented. Putin couldn't have anticipated that nations as disparate as New Zealand, China, Brazil and India would be sending aid to Ukraine. It truly is a case of the World (less Africa and some other grey bits below) vs. Russia.
> 
> View attachment 669459
> 
> ...


Probably, we'll see some blue on the African map when the hunger strikes.
Ukrainian ports will remain close indefinitely and tens of millions of tons of grain and sunflower oil will not be exported this year.

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## Glider (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


>



I have looked at the video a number of times and all I see are a couple of video's repeated a number of times, and bombs that seem to have missed their targets.

However he does point out that the Ukraine need jet's. The excuses made in the recent past no longer stand up. A drone that flies hundreds of miles is in my mind an offensive weapon. To say that we cannot supply a jet that is capable of flying hundreds of miles and dropping bombs because its an offensive weapon lacks any logic. This is now a long term conflict and the Ukraine need those aircraft.

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## space dodo (May 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The 90's were the end of tastey fast-food fries for many chains.
> 
> There's still some good ones to be found, though.
> 
> ...


I don't know if you get steers outside of SA but they make the best chips I have ever tasted.


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## space dodo (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, I think the global response to this invasion is almost unprecedented. Putin couldn't have anticipated that nations as disparate as New Zealand, China, Brazil and India would be sending aid to Ukraine. It truly is a case of the World (less Africa and some other grey bits below) vs. Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> On that score, I'd like to see South Africa contribute. Their ZT3 Ingwe ATGM would be useful against IFVs and the G6 Rhino self-propelled howitzer looks competitive.


Not a chance, SANDF is one of the most incompetent militaries on the planet.

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## GTX (May 19, 2022)

More Australian support:









M113s and more Bushmasters for Ukraine - Australian Defence Magazine


The government is sending 14 M113 Armoured Personnel Carriers and a further 20 Bushmasters to Ukraine as it defends against a faltering Russian offensive.




www.australiandefence.com.au

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> More Australian support:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wonder if the lack of standardization and spare parts will render much of the donated kit unusable after a few months use. Of course most of it is to US and/or NATO spec.


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## GTX (May 19, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Personally i will not be surprised if they will be supplied with surplus JAS-39C/D.


I very highly doubt it. Mind you seeing something like below would be wonderful:

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## GTX (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if the lack of standardization and spare parts will render much of the donated kit unusable after a few months use. Of course most of it is to US and/or NATO spec.


I think right now they will take whatever they can get. Once the war is over there will be a need for a massive clean up and rationalisation.

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## GTX (May 19, 2022)

Russian soldier pleads with widow 'to forgive me' as he faces Ukrainian court


During the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 21-year-old Russian soldier asks a Ukrainian widow to forgive him for killing her husband.




www.abc.net.au

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## space dodo (May 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian soldier pleads with widow 'to forgive me' as he faces Ukrainian court
> 
> 
> During the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 21-year-old Russian soldier asks a Ukrainian widow to forgive him for killing her husband.
> ...


What do you think will happen to this guy if he goes back to Russia?


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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> I very highly doubt it. Mind you seeing something like below would be wonderful:
> 
> View attachment 669469


I believe pre-war that the Ukrainians were strongly considering buying the Gripen. I believe the Hungarians are happy with theirs.

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## ARTESH (May 19, 2022)

space dodo said:


> What do you think will happen to this guy if he goes back to Russia?


He won't see Russia or anywhere else! He is a walking corpse. He'll be killed in prison, or most likely, while being transferred to prison.

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## Glider (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe pre-war that the Ukrainians were strongly considering buying the Gripen. I believe the Hungarians are happy with theirs.
> 
> View attachment 669485


They would be an excellent choice


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I agree 100%. It concerns me that it opens the possibility of other blunders, some whose response would previously have been "he wouldn't be that stupid".



Right -- can he misjudge the red-button precipice too? For all the Vladimir Putin, Supragenius® rhetoric we've heard over the last decade. He has made a couple of pretty rookie mistakes in his estimation of this invasion. We're seeing the results.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> So, Boris just announced "shore-to-ship" missiles.
> What would they be, I wonder. Hopefully, something heavier and longer-ranged than Brimstone and faster than Neptune...



Probably this answers your question.








Exclusive: U.S. aims to arm Ukraine with advanced anti-ship missiles to fight Russian blockade


The White House is working to put advanced anti-ship missiles in the hands of Ukrainian fighters to help defeat Russia's naval blockade, officials said, amid concerns more powerful weapons that could sink Russian warships would intensify the conflict.




www.reuters.com

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## Dimlee (May 19, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Probably this answers your question.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thank you, I just read it. Hopefully, it will not end up like the story with the fighter jets transfer.
I also liked this:
_"The two U.S. officials said the M270 or similar system like the M142 HIMARS would be considered for shipment to Ukraine once Congress passed a $40 billion supplemental funding bill"._
Too late to deblockade Mariupol, but better late than never.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Thank you, I just read it. Hopefully, it will not end up like the story with the fighter jets transfer.
> I also liked this:
> _"The two U.S. officials said the M270 or similar system like the M142 HIMARS would be considered for shipment to Ukraine once Congress passed a $40 billion supplemental funding bill"._
> Too late to deblockade Mariupol, but better late than never.



Yes, it's too late for Mariupol, but Congress has indeed passed the $40B bill and Biden has already signaled he will sign it.

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## gumbyk (May 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Yeah, this is turning comical. Replacing Soviet equipment with cheap Chinese knock-offs.


You've obviously never seen Chinese military build quality.

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, it's too late for Mariupol, but Congress has indeed passed the $40B bill and Biden has already signaled he will sign it.



I believe the Ukrainians will soon have sufficient forces to move southward to first cut off and then re-take Mariupol.

Hopefully the US $40b bill includes some Patriot missiles to prevent the Ukrainians railways from being destroyed. Otherwise all the weaponry will sit in Poland.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe the Ukrainians will soon have sufficient forces to move southward to first cut off and then re-take Mariupol.



I hope you're right about this.



Admiral Beez said:


> Hopefully the US $40b bill includes some Patriot missiles to prevent the Ukrainians railways from being destroyed. Otherwise all the weaponry will sit in Poland.



I think the Patriots. if they're forthcoming (and I've read a couple of reports they are) will be backfill for NATO allies forwarding their own S-300 systems, given the training curve. Better to give the Ukrainians systems they can use immediately and backfill the equipment for donor nations where training can happen in a longer timespan, rather than expect Ukrainian missileers to learn OJT an entirely new system in combat.

And railways aren't the only way to insert weaponry into Ukraine -- road-nets are harder to interrupt and easier to repair.


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## SaparotRob (May 19, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> You've obviously never seen Chinese military build quality.


Obviously.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Obviously.



I hope it's better than their guitar amplifiers.

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## GrauGeist (May 19, 2022)

I had a Norinco 1911 that would interchange with Colt 1911A parts flawlessly...

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## gumbyk (May 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Obviously.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope it's better than their guitar amplifiers.


It's amazing what happens when you focus on quality and not price. I've known a few people who have done business with Chinese factories, and they all say the same thing: If you beat them down on price, they simply drop the quality to reflect what you want to pay.
Now, do you think that the Chinese military are focused on price or quality?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 19, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> It's amazing what happens when you focus on quality and not price. I've known a few people who have done business with Chinese factories, and they all say the same thing: If you beat them down on price, they simply drop the quality to reflect what you want to pay.
> Now, do you think that the Chinese military are focused on price or quality?



My electric guitar was built in China in 2016 and it is a fine instrument, I sold off my Gibson because my Ibanez was simply better. But I've blown up three MiC amplifiers in six years, compared to an MiA Fender that was my #1 for ten years without even a tube-swap.

Of course you get what you pay for. Is China bent on the highest quality, or putting up numbers? I can't say. If someone has more insight I'm happy to listen.

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## Admiral Beez (May 19, 2022)

I’m sure Ukraine would gladly accept two hundred Type 90, 96 or 99 MBTs from Norinco, at the right price.


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## at6 (May 19, 2022)

I read that McDonald's found a buyer for their Russian operations. Probably will be called McPutin's.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> I read that McDonald's found a buyer for their Russian operations. Probably will be called McPutin's.



And after you eat there, you will be liquid putin…

















Ala White Castle style.

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## swampyankee (May 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> I read that McDonald's found a buyer for their Russian operations. Probably will be called McPutin's.


"Tea enriched with polonium for that extra jolt"

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## fubar57 (May 19, 2022)

Had some McDonald's fries for the return trip home today; my yearly salt intake in one large serving

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## Jagdflieger (May 19, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> It's amazing what happens when you focus on quality and not price. I've known a few people who have done business with Chinese factories, and they all say the same thing: If you beat them down on price, they simply drop the quality to reflect what you want to pay.
> Now, do you think that the Chinese military are focused on price or quality?


What most people don't realize is that Chinese manufacturers produce to their customers specification - and most foreign customers (foremost the USA) obviously only want cheap skate stuff. So no surprise that China's actual industrial knowledge and capability is mostly unknown to the common people outside of China.

E.g. their car-industry is meanwhile absolutely on par with the European manufacturers and in EV tech and numbers even world leader. Same goes for many other products.
The world market for premium cars, is still viewed by them to be negligible and therefore they leave it (for now) to their JV partners.

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## ThomasP (May 19, 2022)

re US & Uk supplying shore based anti-ship missiles

"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."


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## J_P_C (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> I very highly doubt it. Mind you seeing something like below would be wonderful:
> 
> View attachment 669469


looks good in this colors....

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## RogerdeLluria (May 20, 2022)

Why the world can't afford anything but a Ukarinian victory.








Inside Russia’s Revival Of Stalinist “Filtration Camps”


"It was like a true concentration camp."




worldcrunch.com

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## ThomasP (May 20, 2022)

"Filtration camp system in Chechnya"


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## at6 (May 20, 2022)

I don't care about the general opinion but those who support Putin are war criminals and that includes so called "civilians". That was the case with Germany in 1945 and applies just as easily to Russia today.

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## at6 (May 20, 2022)

Filtration camps are no different from NAZI concentration camps. As for the brave defenders of Mariupol, they will all be murdered by Chechens and Russians at the first opportunity. That was stated by the Russians early on. Sadly those brave men and women are done for.

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## at6 (May 20, 2022)

The McPutin Burger will come with Chernobyl Fries. You too can glow in the dark.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It baffles me that a career spook wouldn't see the obvious risk of blowback of this invasion. As I wrote far, far upthread, this is Putin's greatest blunder. He completely misread the willingness of Ukraine to fight, the ability of NATO to set aside squabbles and coalesce around the common cause, and the ability of the Russian military to function effectively. Three key elements he got completely and totally wrong.


Remember the post upthread where somebody dug into Putler's childhood and upbringing? The guy's a dedicated "true believer" communist in the religious sense of having been "raised in the faith" (even his elementary school classmates thought he was a little unhinged), and fanatics of that kind are immune to uncomfortable realities and accumulating wisdom with age. He will see what he wants to see and draw the conclusions he wishes to be true. Those he admires most and hopes to emulate or even surpass all made their mark through ruthless violence and cutthroat rivalry, so they're his yellow brick road.

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## at6 (May 20, 2022)

Even the Russian Orthodox Church is endorsing his actions. The whole nation from the Religious Leadership on down is just as demented and as sick as Putin. I totally disconnected socially from a stupid butt munch who had the lack of mental capacity as to refer to Putin as some kind of Christian Crusader fighting evil in Ukraine. Stupid off spring of a promiscuous female dog.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 20, 2022)

at6 said:


> Even the Russian Orthodox Church is endorsing his actions. The whole nation from the Religious Leadership on down is just as demented and as sick as Putin. I totally disconnected socially from a stupid butt munch who had the lack of mental capacity as to refer to Putin as some kind of Christian Crusader fighting evil in Ukraine. Stupid off spring of a promiscuous female dog.


Yum, yum, that Koolaid tastes mighty good, Comrade, da? Even better with a vodka chaser!


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## MiTasol (May 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Surprised India hasn't looked to China as an alternative for military hardware.


Given their border disputes that one is very unlikely.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Remember the post upthread where somebody dug into Putler's childhood and upbringing? The guy's a dedicated "true believer" communist in the religious sense of having been "raised in the faith" (even his elementary school classmates thought he was a little unhinged), and fanatics of that kind are immune to uncomfortable realities and accumulating wisdom with age. He will see what he wants to see and draw the conclusions he wishes to be true. Those he admires most and hopes to emulate or even surpass all made their mark through ruthless violence and cutthroat rivalry, so they're his yellow brick road.


I agree on everything except for the communist part. Communism requires a socioeconomic order structured upon the ideas of common or social ownership (usually state ownership) of all property, including the means of production. He is only a believer on the authoritarian methods of soviet communism and the past greatness of the Soviet union/Russian Empire while allowing free market economy, and of course his oligarch friends. Which basically makes him a Fascist or a Nazi.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> He is only a believer on the authoritarian methods of soviet communism and the past greatness of the Soviet union/Russian Empire while allowing free market economy, and of course his oligarch friends. Which basically makes him a Fascist or a Nazi.


You see that, I see that, but do you think he does? He grew up in the enforcer side of Soviet communism, and that's what he identifies with. It's all about power and control, and never mind the niceties of academic definitions of the economics. "If the Chinese can play capialist games and still call themselves communists, why can't I?"
Also, don't confuse his current economic system with the one he aspires to. I bet he considers the status quo an evolutionary step toward his eventual goal.

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## Admiral Beez (May 20, 2022)

at6 said:


> I read that McDonald's found a buyer for their Russian operations. Probably will be called McPutin's.


Hmm… too close to the Canadian name.









Canadian McDonald’s New McPoutine Has a Genius Secret


It's not the whole "available for a limited time" thing either.




www.grubstreet.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 20, 2022)

at6 said:


> I don't care about the general opinion but those who support Putin are war criminals and that includes so called "civilians". That was the case with Germany in 1945 and applies just as easily to Russia today.


The biggest financial supporters of Putin’s invasion are the Germans and other Euros that keep buying his natural gas.


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## Denniss (May 20, 2022)

We are forced to buy this gas as we can't fully replace it for now. But this is in the works.
That's the problem is you buy most of your stuff from the cheapest source instead of diversifying your sources.

Imagine somethin happens between China and Taiwan, how to replace the cheap stuff from china and the electronics from Taiwan?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2022)

Denniss said:


> We are forced to buy this gas as we can't fully replace it for now. But this is in the works.
> That's the problem is you buy most of your stuff from the cheapest source instead of diversifying your sources.
> 
> Imagine somethin happens between China and Taiwan, how to replace the cheap stuff from china and the electronics from Taiwan?



Americans will then complain about the rising costs of their everyday products, when the products have to be made by American workers in America at American wages.

They complain about jobs going overseas, and they rant about “buy American”, but in reality they don’t want that because they don’t want to pay the price for it. 

Then they will blame the political party their chosen news source is opposite of without even comprehending that you can’t have your cake and eat it too. It’s rather funny actually. And sad.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2022)

Turkey's president confirms he is blocking Finland and Sweden from joining NATO after hinting he wants concessions first


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "We have told allies that we will say no to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership."




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2022)

Struggling in Ukraine, Russia paves way to sign up over-40s for army


LONDON (Reuters) -In a sign of Russia's urgent need to bolster its war effort in Ukraine, parliament said on Friday it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military. The website of the State Duma, parliament's lower house, said the move would...




www.yahoo.com

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## Dimlee (May 20, 2022)

Pictures of the last days of the Azovstal (Mariupol) defence.

Archived on Google Drive:





Photo full size – Google Drive







drive.google.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

at6 said:


> The whole nation from the Religious Leadership on down is just as demented and as sick as Putin.



You're better than this. You know that there are many Russians who are against this war but cannot speak up for fear of imprisonment or worse. Writing the whole nation off is silly at best and malignant at worst.

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## Dimlee (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope you're right about this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There are concerns in Ukraine about the time required for Patriot's integration into the air defence system and about the compatibility. 
There is also an acute shortage of radars, too many were destroyed in the first days of the invasion. They say it is impossible to restore the whole country's coverage with domestic production. The capacity is too small. So, probably, radars before the missiles.
Probably, Patriot is a long term solution, while S-300 is a short term one. For long-range defence.
The same with NASAMS and Buk (if there are any left in Finland or elsewhere) for mid-range.

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## Dimlee (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You're better than this. You know that there are many Russians who are against this war but cannot speak up for fear of imprisonment or worse. Writing the whole nation off is silly at best and malignant at worst.


Consider them as people sick or heavily addicted to the powerful drugs. This is how I think about relatives (friends, ex-colleagues, etc.) in Russian Federation. No arguments anymore, just a hope for their recovery... some sunny day.

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## Jagdflieger (May 20, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Given their border disputes that one is very unlikely.


Who knows what the future brings in regards to this minor border dispute?
Modi is as nationalistic as Xi - let's see what the next Indian PM is about.

_India fielded a contingent from 2nd Battalion of Naga Regiment from Eastern Command which also looks after the border with China while China deployed troops from 14 Corps of China's Chengdu Military Region, whose focus is on Indian borders.
"We will continue to work together and take our* traditional friendship* to new heights," Lt Gen Surinder said._

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Consider them as people sick or heavily addicted to the powerful drugs. This is how I think about relatives (friends, ex-colleagues, etc.) in Russian Federation. No arguments anymore, just a hope for their recovery... some sunny day.



I think plenty of them sense the fact that their propaganda is bullshit. I think plenty of them are thoroughly and happily brainwashed, too. Writing off an entire nation of 144 million people is not only unfair, it's almost certainly wrong, as it's based on slipshod "thinking".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You're better than this. You know that there are many Russians who are against this war but cannot speak up for fear of imprisonment or worse. Writing the whole nation off is silly at best and malignant at worst.



I’ve started to just ignore the posts. Not worth responding to.

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I agree on everything except for the communist part. Communism requires a socioeconomic order structured upon the ideas of common or social ownership (usually state ownership) of all property, including the means of production. He is only a believer on the authoritarian methods of soviet communism and the past greatness of the Soviet union/Russian Empire while allowing free market economy, and of course his oligarch friends. Which basically makes him a Fascist or a Nazi.



Great post, Roger. From where I sit, the main hangover from Communism in modern Russia is the concept that the people are there to sustain the state, with the state being the alpha and omega, the beginning and the end. It explains why Putin is so immune to the sufferings of his people, because in his mind that suffering is necessary to preserve the state. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't have Hitler-like views whereby strife actually strengthens the people, and thereby strengthens the state.

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

Timing is everything:

_Russia is halting its supply of natural gas to Finland, the Finnish state-owned energy firm Gasum says.
Finland has been refusing to pay for its supplies in roubles. But it also follows an announcement that Finland will apply for Nato membership.
Gasum said the move was "regrettable" but said there would be no disruption to customers.
Despite the Ukraine conflict, Russia continues to supply gas to many European countries.
After Western powers sanctioned Russia over the war, Russia said "unfriendly" countries must pay for gas using the Russian currency, a move the EU considers blackmail.
Reliance on Russian energy is a contributing factor in the cost-of-living crisis faced by many consumers.

Finland imports most of its gas from Russia but gas accounts for less than a tenth of the country's energy consumption.
"It is highly regrettable that natural gas supplies under our supply contract will now be halted," said Gasum CEO Mika Wiljanen.
"However, we have been carefully preparing for this situation and provided that there will be no disruptions in the gas transmission network, we will be able to supply all our customers with gas in the coming months," he added.

Asked about the matter, a Kremlin spokesman said "it is obvious that nobody is going to deliver anything for free".
On Sunday, Russia also cut electricity supplies to Finland. It had threatened retaliation should Finland apply to join Nato.
In a separate development, Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft said on Friday that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder had informed them he would no longer serve on their board.

Mr Schröder has faced increasing public outrage over the lucrative role. He has refused to criticise Russia's President Vladimir Putin over the conflict, who he counts as a personal friend._

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’ve started to just ignore the posts. Not worth responding to.



I hear you, I'm just built in such a manner that I think malignant generalizations should not be allowed to go unanswered. I won't get into any mudwrestling, but any time I see millions of people lumped together and written off, it rankles.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hear you, I'm just built in such a manner that I think malignant generalizations should not be allowed to go unanswered. I won't get into any mudwrestling, but any time I see millions of people lumped together and written off, it rankles.



I don’t disagree with you. These malignant generalizations are one of the reasons the political climate in the US is so terrible at the moment.

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t disagree with you. These malignant generalizations are one of the reasons the political climate in the US is so terrible at the moment.



I give you the wisdom of Sgt Buster Kilrain. It's a good rule for life:

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## Crimea_River (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hear you, I'm just built in such a manner that I think malignant generalizations should not be allowed to go unanswered. I won't get into any mudwrestling, but any time I see millions of people lumped together and written off, it rankles.





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t disagree with you. These malignant generalizations are one of the reasons the political climate in the US is so terrible at the moment.



I've challenged this poster several times. While I've considered the "ignore" option, I think it's more important to stand up against some of his views.

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## SaparotRob (May 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Hmm… too close to the Canadian name.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The things one learns here.

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## WARSPITER (May 20, 2022)

Fascism, Nazism, Communism, same dog different leg action.

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## special ed (May 20, 2022)

Two items from this (May) month's Air Force magazine:

page 20 divestments--100 MQ-9s will move to "another government organization," Kendall said, not specifying the agency.

page 5 letters to the editor-- a concise statement by retired Lt.Col. Marshall Miller, from his letter, "By threatening NATO with nuclear blackmail, Russia has exposed its real intent and that is simply to subjugate or neuter the entire continent, ridding it of U.S. influence while eliminating NATO."

Due to lead publishing time, the Lt. Col. most likely wrote this before the latest events in Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

I find this one really interesting:
_
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for action to improve his country's resistance to cyber-attacks, saying Russia had been hit by numerous incidents since Moscow sent troops to Ukraine.
"We were generally ready for this attack," he said during a meeting of Russia's Security Council.
"This is the result of the system-wide work that has been undertaken in the past few years."
The attacks were coming from different countries, but were "clearly co-ordinated", he added, and targeted Russia's "critical information infrastructure" - including the media, financial institutions and government portal.
Protection against such attacks could be achieved by hardening sensitive state and industry facilities, and through avoiding the use of foreign technology, among other things, he added._


If Russia truly cuts itself off from foreign technology for it's information infrastructure then, IMHO, it's dooming itself to being stuck decades behind everyone else, which means it will simply get left behind. Since, in today's world, information = wealth, this will clearly impact Russia's broader economy. If the term "foreign technology" only refers to Western equipment, then Russia may have to rely on Chinese technology...and we all know the risks that such a move imposes since China is not averse to installing data monitoring and capture capabilities within their hardware, with that data then being sent to Beijing. 

Putin is increasingly looking like King Canute/Cnut. He's lord of his domain and maintains a vice-like grip on it. Unfortunately, his domain gets smaller and smaller, and less relevant, as the tide comes in.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> From where I sit, the main hangover from Communism in modern Russia is the concept that *the people are there to sustain the state, with the state being the alpha and omega, the beginning and the end.*


The very definition of totalitarianism, and the bridge that connects far left communism to far right fascism, changing the political spectrum into a circular continuum.

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

A slight interesting story showing a view far from the battle lines but still affecting people:



https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/inside-tiny-arctic-town-where-russians-and-ukrainians-work-alongside-each-other-in-mines/news-story/32e3b0af497ee3791bd6ae5d6610edf0

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

Another precision strike on <Sarcasm: On> clearly a Ukrainian military target <Sarcasm: Off>



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61518209?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6287c33c4259031cb5a24a05%26WATCH%3A%20Missile%20strike%20on%20cultural%20centre%20%27evil%27%20-%20Zelensky%262022-05-20T17%3A22%3A24.276Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:542429df-03fa-4bb4-ac9b-aec4a18dec1f&pinned_post_asset_id=6287c33c4259031cb5a24a05&pinned_post_type=share



And here are some pics of the aftermath courtesy of the BBC:

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> The very definition of totalitarianism, and the bridge that connects far left communism to far right fascism, changing the political spectrum into a circular continuum.


It frustrates me when people talk about Communism (in the Soviet/USSR sense) as though it is synonymous with totalitarianism. I really wish that people would see that the USSR and its ilk were nothing more than totalitarian dictatorships *that simply wrapped themselves in the veneer of communism*. No differently than right wing dictatorships/ideologies such as Falangism and its ilk (including especially many right wing scumbags such as the American religious conservatives) who have wrapped themselves Catholicism/Christianity whilst doing just as many evil/despicable things. They are all in the same bucket though similarly, one should be able to disassociate the real underlying good intentions (be those socialism, good real religious actions) from the scum who mis-appropriate these things for their own twisted intents.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> It frustrates me when people talk about Communism (in the Soviet/USSR sense) as though it is synonymous with totalitarianism. I really wish that people would see that the USSR and its ilk were nothing more than totalitarian dictatorships *that simply wrapped themselves in the veneer of communism*. No differently than right wing dictatorships/ideologies such as Falangism and its ilk (including especially many right wing scumbags such as the American religious conservatives) who have wrapped themselves Catholicism/Christianity whilst doing just as many evil/despicable things. They are all in the same bucket though similarly, one should be able to disassociate the real underlying good intentions (be those socialism, good real religious actions) from the scum who mis-appropriate these things for their own twisted intents.



To paraphrase Steven Weinberg, _without ideology, good people will do good things and bad people will do bad things -- but it takes an ideology to make good people do bad things._

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

The barbaric 'creativity' of Putin's troops in Ukraine: Turning household items into deadly traps


Ukrainian forces pushed out Vladimir Putin's men from the eastern region of Kharkiv but, in the Russian military's wake, they found explosives hidden everywhere, from fields to a child's bedroom.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To paraphrase Steven Weinberg, _without ideology, good people will do good things and bad people will do bad things -- but it takes an ideology to make good people do bad things._


I accept that but it still frustrates me when I see comments that essentially boil down to simple Communism or Socialism = evil. I would just as easily say that Christianity = evil if I used historic events carried out in its name. Both are wrong though.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> I accept that but it still frustrates me when I see comments that essentially boil down to simple Communism or Socialism = evil. I would just as easily say that Christianity = evil if I used historic events carried out in its name. Both are wrong though.



I think ideologies act so powerfully upon some people not because of the doctrine but because of the individual in question.

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

Russia says troops close to claiming full control of Luhansk


Russia's Defence Minister says Moscow has almost taken full control of Ukraine's south-eastern region of Luhansk, one of two regions it says are independent and has vowed to liberate.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think ideologies act so powerfully upon some people not because of the doctrine but because of the individual in question.



Because of the individual*s* in question....the egotistical leader who uses the ideology for their own purposes and the gullible follower who fails to use reasoning and their own agency to make decisions for themselves.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> I really wish that people would see that the USSR and its ilk were nothing more than totalitarian dictatorships *that simply wrapped themselves in the veneer of communism*.


If the peanut butter jar says SKIPPY on the label "we of the great unwashed" can be forgiven for assuming that's what's in fact in the jar.

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> If the peanut butter jar says SKIPPY on the label "we of the great unwashed" can be forgiven for assuming that's what's in fact in the jar.


Well it is a duty to read more than the book cover.


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## MiTasol (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> *I think plenty of them are thoroughly and happily brainwashed, too. *Writing off an entire nation of 144 million people is not only unfair, it's almost certainly wrong, *as it's based on slipshod "thinking".*



Same applies to another nation of 330 million.

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## MiTasol (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> I accept that but it still frustrates me when I see comments that essentially boil down to simple Communism or Socialism = evil. I would just as easily say that Christianity = evil if I used historic events carried out in its name. Both are wrong though.



Change _historic _to _never ending _and you would be more accurate.

Christ taught that discrimination, hatred, racism, etc, etc, etc, are evil yet many self proclaimed Christian churches promote those things as core beliefs in his name.

When offered the chance to join in the murder of a woman who had broken an old testament "law" he refused and said _let he who is without sin....... _ Many modern pseudo Christians want to reintroduce all the old testament evil.

Mods please remove if this is too religious

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## GTX (May 20, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Change _historic _to _never ending _and you would be more accurate.


True


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Same applies to another nation of 330 million.



Agreed, such large groups inherently have many different demographics and outlooks within them, far too many and too widely-divergent to judge as a monolithic whole.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia says troops close to claiming full control of Luhansk
> 
> 
> Russia's Defence Minister says Moscow has almost taken full control of Ukraine's south-eastern region of Luhansk, one of two regions it says are independent and has vowed to liberate.
> ...



From your link:

_In a speech, Mr Shoigu also said the United States had stepped up strategic bomber flights in recent years, sent warships to the Baltic Sea and intensified training exercises in the region with its NATO partners.

He said Russia would respond by forming new military units and divisions along its western border, and it was working to improve the combat strength of its troops._

I'm sure _these_ troops will know how to fight, lol.

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## Dimlee (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think plenty of them sense the fact that their propaganda is bullshit. I think plenty of them are thoroughly and happily brainwashed, too. Writing off an entire nation of 144 million people is not only unfair, it's almost certainly wrong, as it's based on slipshod "thinking".


There is no need for writing off the nation, of course. Just manage the expectations and hope for a better future for that nation. Until that future comes, prepare for the worst that might come from their side and battle what has come already.
I do feel sorry for my fellow Russians. But I know that majority of them, including my friends and even relatives, will not blink if my whole family is wiped from the face of the Earth by Russian weapons. They didn't blink when it happened to thousands of others here in Ukraine. 
Most of our former friends and relatives in the Russian Federation, with a few exceptions, did not send a simple "how are you" message to us when our city was under missile strikes. Even worse, one of the aunts of my wife called on day 1 of the invasion to say something like that: "this is for 8 years of your Nazi government bombing the Donbas". "Auntie", my wife said tiredly, "our place just have been attacked". "No!" screamed our kind and lovely aunt, "you know nothing, you are bombed by your nationalists!"
So... until some sunny day. In the meantime, praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> There is no need for writing off the nation, of course. Just manage the expectations and hope for a better future for that nation. Until that future comes, prepare for the worst that might come from their side and battle what has come already.
> I do feel sorry for my fellow Russians. But I know that majority of them, including my friends and even relatives, will not blink if my whole family is wiped from the face of the Earth by Russian weapons. They didn't blink when it happened to thousands of others here in Ukraine.
> Most of our former friends and relatives in the Russian Federation, with a few exceptions, did not send a simple "how are you" message to us when our city was under missile strikes. Even worse, one of the aunts of my wife called on day 1 of the invasion to say something like that: "this is for 8 years of your Nazi government bombing the Donbas". "Auntie", my wife said tiredly, "our place just have been attacked". "No!" screamed our kind and lovely aunt, "you know nothing, you are bombed by your nationalists!"
> So... until some sunny day. In the meantime, praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.



I don't absolve any people, my own included, for the misdeeds committed by their government in their name. I just know that not everyone in any nation approves of what that government may do in their name, so I try to be a bit more nuanced.

I hope the Russian people can find their way to some form of democracy and free expression, but after the two 20th-century failures where revolutions were captured by bad actors, I confess doubt. They deserve better, but they must themselves strive for it too.

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## Admiral Beez (May 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope the Russian people can find their way to some form of democracy and free expression…


It will never happen. There’s something in the Russian sense of self that both holds an inferiority/siege complex and seeks a strongman. It’s in their DNA.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It will never happen. There’s something in the Russian sense of self that both holds an inferiority/siege complex and seeks a strongman. It’s in their DNA.



DNA doesn't work that way. You're probably thinking of cultural evolution, which is more malleable.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It will never happen. There’s something in the Russian sense of self that both holds an inferiority/siege complex and seeks a strongman. It’s in their DNA.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> DNA doesn't work that way. You're probably thinking of cultural evolution, which is more malleable.


Successful democratic self government requires a certain political awareness, trust in the integrity of one's fellow citizens, and skill in working the levers of power, what I call "democracy reflexes", which we've been developing for 300 years, and still haven't quite perfected. You can't fly a 747 without training and experience, and a 747 is easy to fly compared to a democracy.
Now take a people who've been manipulated and oppressed and kept ignorant throughout their history, and have consequently developed reflexes of subversion and corruption, and you're starting out trying to educate the disadvantaged if you try to foster democracy as we know it among them. Flying a 747 isn't intuitive to the uninitiated, and neither is democracy. In a world where everyone is necessarily self-interested and secretive, having faith in the integrity of one's elected leaders doesn't come naturally. Democratizing Russia is a pretty tall order.

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## J_P_C (May 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Successful democratic self government requires a certain political awareness, trust in the integrity of one's fellow citizens, and skill in working the levers of power, what I call "democracy reflexes", which we've been developing for 300 years, and still haven't quite perfected. You can't fly a 747 without training and experience, and a 747 is easy to fly compared to a democracy.
> Now take a people who've been manipulated and oppressed and kept ignorant throughout their history, and have consequently developed reflexes of subversion and corruption, and you're starting out trying to educate the disadvantaged if you try to foster democracy as we know it among them. Flying a 747 isn't intuitive to the uninitiated, and neither is democracy. In a world where everyone is necessarily self-interested and secretive, having faith in the integrity of one's elected leaders doesn't come naturally. Democratizing Russia is a pretty tall order.


agree, but .... Democratizing Russia is for now impossible task, this is like you have tried denazify Germany in 1940 shortly after Wehrmacht rolled through France.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 21, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> agree, but .... Democratizing Russia is for now impossible task, this is like you have tried denazify Germany in 1940 shortly after Wehrmacht rolled through France.


Roger that! Democratizing Russia by external influence is impossible, and developing it indigenously highly unlikely. The reflexes just aren't there.

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## WARSPITER (May 21, 2022)

The Churchill quote about Russia still seems apt;

*"a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma*".

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## Jerad (May 21, 2022)

A couple days ago (May 18) in Russian city Ufa, an incident occurred at a concert of the legend of rock lyrics Group DDT main soloist Yuri Shevchuk protested against the war and said next.
Translation:
-And now people are being killed in Ukraine. What for?
-Our boys are dying there. What for? -What are the goals, friends?
-The youth of Russia and Ukraine is dying. Old men, women, children are dying. For the sake of some Napoleonic plans for another one of our "Caesars", right?
-Motherland, friends, this is not a president's ass which must be fondled and kissed.
- Motherland - a poor old woman selling potatoes at the station. Is this Motherland.



After this concert, the police approached Yuri, but did not dare to arrest him. Just informed him that tension (will be) revealed against him. After this concert, there is an interview with him where he said that his concerts are already canceled and he was fined.

Rock Star Charged In Russia Over Anti-Putin Speech During Concert: Report


This guy is a demigod in the post-Soviet countries. He is a post-Soviet Russian rock legend - lyrics that hurt deeply, lyrics that make you feel, music can make grown men cry. As an example, the scale of its popular in the former USSR countries can be compared with popular Metallica in the USA. His father is from Ukraine, his mother is from Bashkortostan.

Since the beginning of the war, there have been cases that his concerts were canceled due to the fact that he did not want to perform with the "Z" symbol. Also, a month ago in concert in Voronezh, he arranged a poll among his public about who supported the war more or who was against the war, judging by the reaction of the audience more who is against, at the end of the video he ironically says that not everything iso bad.




In 2010 there was a meeting of putin with artists (musicians etc.). Shevchuk had long conversation and argue with putin on democracy, freedom of speech, liberalisation etc. The interview begins with Shevchuk saying that an your assistant called a couple of days ago and told Shevchuk not to ask Putin sharp questions, to which Putin replied that this was a provocation.



2017 Moscow full stadium





Sorry if something is not clear, used translator.

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## Dimlee (May 21, 2022)

Azovstal', the last day.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Successful democratic self government requires a certain political awareness, trust in the integrity of one's fellow citizens, and skill in working the levers of power, what I call "democracy reflexes", which we've been developing for 300 years, and still haven't quite perfected. You can't fly a 747 without training and experience, and a 747 is easy to fly compared to a democracy.
> Now take a people who've been manipulated and oppressed and kept ignorant throughout their history, and have consequently developed reflexes of subversion and corruption, and you're starting out trying to educate the disadvantaged if you try to foster democracy as we know it among them. Flying a 747 isn't intuitive to the uninitiated, and neither is democracy. In a world where everyone is necessarily self-interested and secretive, having faith in the integrity of one's elected leaders doesn't come naturally. Democratizing Russia is a pretty tall order.



Right, but remember, before 244 years ago, no one alive had any experience operating a true democracy. It will not be easy, you're right, but it's been done before and it can be done again.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

Jerad said:


> A couple days ago (May 18) in Russian city Ufa, an incident occurred at a concert of the legend of rock lyrics Group DDT main soloist Yuri Shevchuk protested against the war and said next.
> Translation:
> -And now people are being killed in Ukraine. What for?
> -Our boys are dying there. What for? -What are the goals, friends?
> ...




Here's hoping the brotha can wield the power of rock'n'roll -- or at least get out of Russia safely.

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## Dimlee (May 21, 2022)

...and statistics.
Military aid to Ukraine Jan-May 2022. Top 5 contributors.
Per capita: 
Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland.
% of own military expenditures: 
Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Luxembourg, Slovakia.

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## SaparotRob (May 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Successful democratic self government requires a certain political awareness, trust in the integrity of one's fellow citizens, and skill in working the levers of power, what I call "democracy reflexes", which we've been developing for 300 years, and still haven't quite perfected. You can't fly a 747 without training and experience, and a 747 is easy to fly compared to a democracy.
> Now take a people who've been manipulated and oppressed and kept ignorant throughout their history, and have consequently developed reflexes of subversion and corruption, and you're starting out trying to educate the disadvantaged if you try to foster democracy as we know it among them. Flying a 747 isn't intuitive to the uninitiated, and neither is democracy. In a world where everyone is necessarily self-interested and secretive, having faith in the integrity of one's elected leaders doesn't come naturally. Democratizing Russia is a pretty tall order.


Can we start them out on the Ercoupe of democracy?


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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but remember, before 244 years ago, no one alive had any experience operating a true democracy. It will not be easy, you're right, but it's been done before and it can be done


That is the main reason why immigrants from Europe (aside maybe from Switzerland) migrated to the USA - to flee injustice and persecution since they were all ruled by monarchies and their respective laws. Becoming a USA that is partially governed by fist-right, right&wrong determined by power of $, and a pure capitalism that wasn't significantly countered by any sort of socialism from the 19th century onward. 
Resulting into a huge mass of "underprivileged", lowly educated and socially unbalanced citizens contra those with $, or $ and education. 
As long as a democracy doesn't behold a certain portion of social awareness, social obligation and a respectable/balanced social culture, it is a dysfunctional democracy - only expressed in regards to "individual freedom" which basically beholds a contempt or disregard towards it's own laws and a lack of respect towards others rights and belongings. 

Needless to say that an autocratic system lacking social values is even worse.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

_
President Biden has signed into law a far-reaching aid package for Ukraine that will provide $40 billion in security, humanitarian and economic assistance for the country as it battles the Russian war over the coming months. 

The White House said in a release on Saturday that Biden signed the measure while abroad in Asia. The Senate voted overwhelmingly to pass it on Thursday. 

The package brings the total U.S. assistance Congress has approved for Ukraine this year to nearly $54 billion to help the country battle a Russian onslaught that began on Feb. 24. 

The president had asked Congress at the end of April to authorize an additional $33 billion for Ukraine as he exhausted the drawdown authority from the last bill passed in March. The figure lawmakers ultimately landed on was higher. 

[...]

The legislation allows Biden to transfer $11 billion in weapons to Ukraine and provides $9 billion to replenish depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles. It also provides roughly $8.8 billion to support operations of Ukraine's government and combat human trafficking, $5 billion in global food assistance, $4.35 billion in international disaster aid and $900 million to support refugees. _



https://thehill.com/news/administration/3495301-biden-signs-40b-ukraine-aid-package-into-law/

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## at6 (May 21, 2022)

Jerad said:


> A couple days ago (May 18) in Russian city Ufa, an incident occurred at a concert of the legend of rock lyrics Group DDT main soloist Yuri Shevchuk protested against the war and said next.
> Translation:
> -And now people are being killed in Ukraine. What for?
> -Our boys are dying there. What for? -What are the goals, friends?
> ...



I don't understand the language but I like the music. Great performer.

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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> I don't understand the language but I like the music. Great performer.


As long as it sounds like Hard Rock or Heavy Metal it's okay with me.

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## Snautzer01 (May 21, 2022)

Revolution often starts with a voice or/and a sound. Hope the voices can be a fire starter again.

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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Revolution often starts with a voice or/and a sound. Hope the voices can be a fire starter again.


I know what you mean, but for a country like Russia the last thing I wish for is a revolution. 
It requires a progress towards a democratic process, that IMO will require at least 2-3 generations. And then it will still likely to be more of a "controlled democracy" e.g. like
Singapore.

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## ARTESH (May 21, 2022)

Translation:



> Iranian Mahan Air Boing 747, full of Iranian built strike drones, arrived! Soon will be used against Ukrainians at Donbass.



It seems shooting down the airplane (PS752) was not enough!!!

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## GTX (May 21, 2022)

Russia confirms it has stopped gas exports to Finland


Gazprom demands European countries pay for Russian gas supplies in roubles because of sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but Finland refuses to do so.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (May 21, 2022)

'Family was torn apart': Ukraine's first lady recounts war's opening days


The first lady of Ukraine recounts how the outbreak of the war in February caused her "anxiety and stupor", adding that the conflict meant that she didn't see her husband, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for two-and-a-half months.




www.abc.net.au

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## Snautzer01 (May 21, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I know what you mean, but for a country like Russia the last thing I wish for is a revolution.
> It requires a progress towards a democratic process, that IMO will require at least 2-3 generations. And then it will still likely to be more of a "controlled democracy" e.g. like
> Singapore.


Too many very very rich men. No hope of. It will take a year or 2 or more but it will happen. Look at how the population piramide is in russia. The young will in the end revolt. It is them who are dieing in ditches in an unjust war and getting blown to pieces. It needs a spark, but that is coming i believe. You can drive Russians just that far. 

Further then most people but there is an end. Look at the recent history.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

_Zelenskiy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory. He said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting. 

[...]

Acknowledging that Kyiv's stance on the war was becoming more uncompromising, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting.

[...]

"They'll start a new offensive, even more bloody and large-scale," Podolyak, Ukraine's lead negotiator, told Reuters in an interview in the heavily guarded presidential office.

Recent calls for an immediate ceasefire have come from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi._









As Russia intensifies push for Donbas, Ukraine rules out ceasefire


Ukraine ruled out a ceasefire or concessions to Moscow on Saturday as Russia intensified an offensive in the eastern Donbas region and stopped providing gas to Finland.




www.reuters.com





Crunch-time now. This is where Russia will try to pincer the defenders with some sort of envelopment.

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## Admiral Beez (May 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Crunch-time now. This is where Russia will try to pincer the defenders with some sort of envelopment.


They must just succeed to some limited degree, but at the cost of another 20,000 or more dead Russians.


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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Too many very very rich men. No hope of. It will take a year or 2 or more but it will happen. Look at how the population piramide is in russia. The young will in the end revolt. It is them who are dieing in ditches in an unjust war and getting blown to pieces. It needs a spark, but that is coming i believe. You can drive Russians just that far.
> 
> Further then most people but there is an end. Look at the recent history.


Well they have been going through this process already since 1988 remember? First totalitarian system from the Carz's time to Soviet-time. then into the Gorbi/Yeltsin period (total
abuse of a free economy and 'democracy") resulting into a lawless Mafia and oligarch state. Reigned in by Putin - who- maybe rightfully reinstalled a central authority regime to
combat these disastrous developments.
I never spoke to him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he took China as an example in this specific matter. Steadfast the country first and then make sure that the living-educational standard is significantly raised, then let's see were this eventually leads to in 50 years time.


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## XBe02Drvr (May 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Can we start them out on the Ercoupe of democracy?


They had a flight in the Ercoupe post USSR; they crashed it on takeoff.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They must just succeed to some limited degree, but at the cost of another 20,000 or more dead Russians.



As with any envelopment, it really depends on how fast it unfolds. I'm not seeing the Russians being able to collapse Ukrainian lines quick enough for a big bag. Speed is of the essence from the Russian point of view, but can they manage a fast offensive slice? I'm skeptical, barring a Ukrainian collapse.


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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> As with any envelopment, it really depends on how fast it unfolds. I'm not seeing the Russians being able to collapse Ukrainian lines quick enough for a big bag. Speed is of the essence from the Russian point of view, but can they manage a fast offensive slice? I'm skeptical, barring a Ukrainian collapse.


I think that Putin is playing the long run strategy - how this works out we will be most likely to see from july-August onward.
Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior
equipped Ukraine that even holds the significant tactical advantage of being the defender, and their losses (not just the unfortunate civilians) are also mounting.

One needs to remember that the Ukrainian MoD in Summer last year already stated that it possess e.g. more ATGM then there are targets. And that Russia would need a million men to
conquer/defeat the Ukraine. This also being the reason why the Ukraine Armed Forces didn't really believe in being attacked by Russia until 24th of February.
And off course Putin and his staff also are/were aware about that.

So the question to me is rather, how will Putin in July-August onward, counter an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive with the Ukraine holding a numerical advantage of 3:1

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think that Putin is playing the long run strategy - how this works out we will be most likely to see from july-August onward.
> Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior
> equipped Ukraine that even holds the significant tactical advantage of being the defender, and their losses (not just the unfortunate civilians) are also mounting.
> 
> ...



I don't know that Ukraine will have that numerical advantage, but I agree that August-September will be where someone shits or gets off'n the pot. Mud will be setting in again by October, which imposes a hard limit on mobile ops. Finances on both sides will be draining; but if Ukraine can hold out 'til the end of Sept/early Oct they will certainly hold a better negotiating position, I think. New fiscal year in American will permit another round of aid packaging, tiding Ukraine over the winter and able to fight the incoming Russian conscript class.

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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

My God those Russians are really scraping up everything they got - the 2s7 SP gun is from the early 70's !! - probably due to available ammo.









Ukrainian military destroy Russia’s Tiulpan gun used to shell Sievierodonetsk


The members of the National Guard of Ukraine have destroyed Russia’s 2S4 Tiulpan self-propelled mortar, which was used to shell Sievierodonetsk and ruin a bridge between the regional center and Lysychansk. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net




_The members of the National Guard of Ukraine have destroyed Russia's Pion gun, which was used to shell Sievierodonetsk and ruin a bridge between the regional center and Lysychansk.
In addition, Haidai thanked Russian propagandists, who were bragging about the weapons and provided a tip-off to adjust fire._

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## fubar57 (May 21, 2022)

​

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## Admiral Beez (May 21, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Astonishingly since end of April it is actually the Russians with their limited combat and militia troops that are still gaining territory - towards a numerical and technically superior equipped Ukraine


I’m not aware of the Ukrainians having gained much land before it was first ceded by the Russians. Have the Ukrainians defeated any large Russian formations in a defended position? That’s what the UAF are facing as they must now mount offensives into Russian defensive positions in the Donbas.

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## Jagdflieger (May 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m not aware of the Ukrainians having gained much land before it was first ceded by the Russians. Have the Ukrainians defeated any large Russian formations in a defended position? That’s what the UAF are facing as they must now mount offensives into Russian defensive positions in the Donbas.


Since the Ukrainian MoD and as such the western press, is very sparse with figures, not to mention "factual" figures, it is really very hard to tell as to what losses the Ukrainians have
occurred since May - just giving info in regards to claimed losses by the Russians. It seems realistic to me that Avozsteel alone cost the Ukrainians 4-5000 men in WIA/KIA and POW.

In regards to the "liberation of territory" around Kharkiv also no Ukrainian figures are available - and the Russians actually having withdrawn rather then being defeated/destroyed.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

To be fair, Sun-Tzu did opine that the best victory was won without fighting.

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## Admiral Beez (May 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To be fair, Sun-Tzu did opine that the best victory was won without fighting.


Yes, but not if the spoils of your victory is land when the objective was to destroy your enemy’s forces. That was the failure of Germany’s Case Blue, their 1942 offensive where they were supposed to repeat 1941’s success at Barbarossa by encircling and destroying huge numbers of Russian forces. However in Blue’s case, the Russians all withdrew and the Germans captured nothing but some farms and a few spiked oil heads. That’s what the Ukrainians are doing, advances but the Russians elude them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yes, but not if the spoils of your victory is land when the objective was to destroy your enemy’s forces. That was the failure of Germany’s Case Blue, their 1942 offensive where they were supposed to repeat 1941’s success at Barbarossa by encircling and destroying huge numbers of Russian forces. However in Blue’s case, the Russians all withdrew and the Germans captured nothing but some farms and a few spiked oil heads. That’s what the Ukrainians are doing, advances but the Russians elude them.



I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area, but rather the logistical logjam put the kibosh on further advance. In either case, it was a Russian decision rather than Ukrainian force-of-arms that resulted in that reverse. In Ukraine's case, their tailored strategy of controlling communications and chokepoints seems to have paid off, resulting in the lost territory being regained without too much sacrifice.

That's why it made me think of Sun-Tzu.

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## taly01 (May 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area,



The "word" from a Serbian LDNR volunteer is that it was LDNR militia that was holding north of Kiev (sorry use WW2 tank nerd spelling), and after coming under Ukr artillery they kinda panic'k and fled, from an organised Ukr attack.

But overall the casualties are really dreadful for Ukr forces near Donbass, which are getting rolled up a few km each day. No air force and getting pounded by artillery is a horrific equation. Add in drone and satellite targetting and the Ukr forces is in a Falaise Gap situation in East.


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## ThomasP (May 22, 2022)

Interesting bit of info:

"Soldiers issued guidelines to avoid using mobiles in Russia-Ukraine war"

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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area, but rather the logistical logjam put the kibosh on further advance. In either case, it was a Russian decision rather than Ukrainian force-of-arms that resulted in that reverse. That's why it made me think of Sun-Tzu.


It’s a good and apt reference. But how does Ukraine retake the north coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the Donbas if the Russians are dug in and now well supplied?


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## Jerad (May 22, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Боже мой, эти русские реально все наскребают - САУ 2с7 начала 70-х!! - вероятно, из-за имеющихся боеприпасов.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

Is destroying a single forty year old Pion self propelled howitzer significant?

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## Jerad (May 22, 2022)

Set fire to a military registration and enlistment office in the Moscow region as a sign of protest and filmed it on a GoPro camera. ~ 9\05\22
The arsonist wrote the following on the fence.
He explained his motives by the fact that, first of all, he wanted to destroy the archive with the personal files of conscripts in order to prevent mobilization. 
In addition, he stated the following: "I think it needs to be spread. Ukrainians will know that in Russia they are fighting for them, not everyone is afraid and not everyone is indifferent. Our protesters must be inspired and act more decisively. And it must be even stronger to break the spirit of the Russian army and the resolution. Let these n * daras know that their own people hate them and will extinguish them. Their earth will soon lose its burning under their feet, hell awaits at home too.



Arson of a military registration and enlistment office in the Moscow region ~18\05\22



Arson of a military enlistment office in Nizhnevartovsk ~ 5\05\22




Arson of a military enlistment office in Cherepovets ~9\05\22



News RF also reports that the draft board in Novosibirsk is on fire on ~ 05/20/22

Новосибирске подожгли военкомат 20 тыс документы призывников уничтожены

Also on the Internet there is information with a photo that a military registration and enlistment office caught fire in Omsk, and another citys, but video i not finded









Плюс один: очередной военкомат в россии забросали коктейлями Молотова (фото)


Российские полицейские пока не комментируют инцидент




telegraf.com.ua





Today in Dagestan, in protest against the war in Ukraine, a little girl said "Freedom to Ukraine" into the microphone and called Putin - devil.

Дагестан. Последний звонок: «Нет войне! Свободу Украине! Путин - черт!»

Concert group Kis - Kis in St. Petersburg, May 20, 2022.
The whole hall shouts an anti-war slogan.

Питер, концер, люди скандируют здравые вещи

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s a good and apt reference. But how does Ukraine retake the north coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the Donbas if the Russians are dug in and now well supplied?



I'm not sure. If they are dug in, those shiny new howitzers could come in handy. It also depends on how many men Ukraine has available for field operations.

I wouldn't assume that they're well-supplied, though. I've read several intel estimates which report that Russian forces are having logistical issues even on the Russian side of the border.

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## Jerad (May 22, 2022)

On next two videos аrsenty рavlov call sign мotorola. 
A citizen Russian Federation who came to defend Donbass and died soon after.
Putin awarded him a "hero Russian Federation" posthumously. 
For fun, he shoots at his positions.



Sekond video with this heroes
The operator asks him 
-what will happen now, and he answers 
-something like an alarm clock, because many sleep and war does not touch them
- Then they ask him a question, is there really no one there? 
his answer is - I don't care,
-Shoot there, our enemies there
- no we have motherfuckers here


The propaganda Russian Federation says that the Ukrainians killed him, but many separatists say that they are their own, since the bodyguards were removed two before that, and the Ukrainians would not have been able to mine elevator.

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## Jagdflieger (May 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is destroying a single forty year old Pion self propelled howitzer significant?


Fully agree, and that is what is giving this whole war a strange taste. Whilst the Russians promote more or less no information (but simply rely onto media war-maps showing the respective gains or losses of territory to the general public), the Ukraine states every single account right down to e.g. a Ural truck destroyed today by an ATGM at....(an information which rather worries me then boosts confidence).
I guess in order to get the $ coming in from NATO, and to keep their own peoples spirits up, the UAF needs to highlight every sort of success, since territory wise there are no successes 
to show for - so far.

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## Jerad (May 22, 2022)

Recreation center "Svitanok", Belogorovka. Crossing the Seversky Donets. May 2022


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## Jagdflieger (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the retreat north of Kyiv was not so much in anticipation of an attack and voiding the area, but rather the logistical logjam put the kibosh on further advance. In either case, it was a Russian decision rather than Ukrainian force-of-arms that resulted in that reverse. In Ukraine's case, their tailored strategy of controlling communications and chokepoints seems to have paid off, resulting in the lost territory being regained without too much sacrifice.
> 
> That's why it made me think of Sun-Tzu.


I have a rather different view on that particular Kiev scenario.
As I stated in another post, both the Ukraine and Russia were aware that a million men are required to grind down the Ukraine. (which Russia doesn't have)
IMO plan A (taking control of Kiev) was developed.
Initially a total success by Russia, having deployed parts of their elite forces at Hostomel airport and heavy equipment coming in from the North and from the Sumy direction.
Then for an unknown reason the Russian forces 8-10km away from Kiev did not advance or show any activity for almost 2 weeks!!
According to NATO analysis due to incompetent leadership, communication and logistic issues.

To me it rather looks like Putin and his staff had actually worked out an attempt to overthrow the Ukraine government - upon this happening the Northern group was to move into
Kiev. Something obviously spoiled/delayed that attempt by 2 weeks. (there are no reports of any significance showing the UAF attacking the Northern group within the first 2 weeks)
The UAF started their actual concentrated counterattack from week 4 onward - onto the already retreating Russians, them (realizing that plan A had failed) and that they did not have 
the necessary manpower to hold the North and in parallel to continue their offensive in the East and South. 

Just my 5 cents

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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've read several intel estimates which report that Russian forces are having logistical issues even on the Russian side of the border.


If they’re hungry, low on ammunition and fuel…. What’s holding up the UAFs?

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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> …the Ukraine.


Let’s stop calling it ”the Ukraine”. It’s a country, not a region.









Ukraine, Not the Ukraine: The Significance of Three Little Letters


U.S. President Barack Obama stood at a local elementary school in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday to tout his new budget proposal. But after his opening...




time.com













The Geopolitics of Ukraine’s ‘The’


Why three letters—and a Beatles song—trigger grammatical controversy, historical trauma, and existential crisis in Kyiv.




foreignpolicy.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If they’re hungry, low on ammunition and fuel…. What’s holding up the UAFs?



I didn't say anything like your conditional clause implies. I don't know what they're low on, if anything. But to answer your question with my own hypothetical -- what if they're low on fuel but have plenty of food and ammunition? That might keep the UAF at bay, right? What if they have plenty of fuel and ammunition, but are working on short rations for the time being? Both those scenarios could explain why these intel estimates might be true but UAF is still on the defensive. What if the UAF don't have the manpower to take advantage of those logistics issues?

There's a lot of ways it could pan out even if those estimates are true.

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## fubar57 (May 22, 2022)

Why not turn this into a "What-if" thread?

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## GTX (May 22, 2022)

Fears rise for 2,500 Ukrainian POWs from steel plant that Russia labelled neo-Nazis


A Moscow-backed separatist leader says nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters taken prisoner from the besieged Mariupol steel plant will face tribunals.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (May 22, 2022)

Think of this when down about things.

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## Denniss (May 22, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Recreation center "Svitanok", Belogorovka. Crossing the Seversky Donets. May 2022


Secure the area then call-in the tractor brigade. Some BMPs and APC seem recoverable

EDIT:
Regarding Kiev the russsians lost hundreds of Paras when their aircraft were shot down. Their supply lines were under constant attack by partisan-like warfare. Their secure comms failed as they relied on working mobile phone net

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## Jagdflieger (May 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s stop calling it ”the Ukraine”. It’s a country, not a region.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Is "the" USA or "the" Philippines, "the" UK or "the Netherlands, a country or a region? well it's both
Ukraine in it's Slavic origin Ukraina means actually Borderlands. So to say "the" Borderlands or "the Ukraine" is absolutely correct.
The issue is that Ukraine associates "the" with the Russian usage of "na"- meaning an unbounded territory and using "v" to describe a bordered/bounded territory. (which has actually nothing to do with using the article "the"in English or "die" in German).
As such the Russian Federation instead of saying "na" Ukraine is correctly referring to the Ukraine now as "v" Ukraine, (the "Bounded" Borderlands) making use of an article just as in German with the article "die" Ukraine.

I find this just silly - if they take nationalism for so important then maybe they should look for a new name, if they can't handle the historical origins of their countries own chosen name, instead of degrading other peoples languages respectively it's grammer.

I shall henceforth "in order to avoid issues" and to honor their history refer to them as "the Borderlands"

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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Is "the" USA or "the" Philippines….


It’s not for me to teach you the nuances of English grammar. I only bring it up because the Russians use the term post-USSR to suggest that Ukraine is geographic region, as you suggest, and not an independent nation. But when in doubt, look to how a nation refers to itself. With Ukraine, the Ukrainians tell us clearly.

_"The Ukraine" is incorrect both grammatically and politically, says the Embassy of Ukraine in London._








Ukraine or the Ukraine: Why do some country names have 'the'?


As Ukraine prepares to co-host one of football's biggest tournaments, Euro 2012, why do fewer people these days say "The Ukraine"?



www.bbc.co.uk







Jagdflieger said:


> I find this just silly - it's grammer.


Actually, it‘s grammar.

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## buffnut453 (May 22, 2022)

And we don't refer to "the Germany" or "the France." 

We use the positive article for the Netherlands, US and UK because the full titles include the modifier "of": the Kingdom of the Netherlands (i.e. kingdom of low-lying lands); the United States of America; the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Thus we use the positive article to distinguish the American United States from any other united states that might be out there. Same-same for the kingdoms, explicitly distinguishing them from other kingdoms (e.g. the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia).

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## FLYBOYJ (May 22, 2022)

*"Aircraft" / "Aircrafts" *

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## special ed (May 22, 2022)

Sheep --Sheep
Moose -- Moose

Also, The united States of Mexico is the correct grammatical name for "Mexico".

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## gumbyk (May 22, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Is "the" USA or "the" Philippines, "the" UK or "the Netherlands, a country or a region? well it's both
> Ukraine in it's Slavic origin Ukraina means actually Borderlands. So to say "the" Borderlands or "the Ukraine" is absolutely correct.
> The issue is that Ukraine associates "the" with the Russian usage of "na"- meaning an unbounded territory and using "v" to describe a bordered/bounded territory. (which has actually nothing to do with using the article "the"in English or "die" in German).
> As such the Russian Federation instead of saying "na" Ukraine is correctly referring to the Ukraine now as "v" Ukraine, (the "Bounded" Borderlands) making use of an article just as in German with the article "die" Ukraine.
> ...


We don't get to choose what someone else's country is called, just because we like it.

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## Crimea_River (May 22, 2022)

Well, that was a waste of 10 minutes.

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## Admiral Beez (May 22, 2022)

The Russia has apparently lost 130 tanks in Kharkiv so far.









Ukraine says it captured documents revealing that an elite Russian unit lost over 130 tanks in failed attacks on Kharkiv


Russia's elite 1st Guards Tank Army led the assault on the Kharkiv region and paid heavily for the privilege.




www.businessinsider.com





How long before they run out of tanks?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

special ed said:


> Sheep --Sheep
> Moose -- Moose
> 
> Also, The united States of Mexico is the correct grammatical name for "Mexico".



Goose -- geese
Mice -- meese!

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## buffnut453 (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Goose -- geese
> Mice -- meese!



No, no, NO...it's gooses and mouses. Sheesh!!!


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> No, no, NO...it's gooses and mouses. Sheesh!!!



I guess horse -- heese is out of bounds?

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## buffnut453 (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I guess horse -- heese is out of bounds?



You stepped WAAAAYYYYY out of bounds years ago. I have no option but to banish you to the naughty corner. Now let that be a lesson to you!!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You stepped WAAAAYYYYY out of bounds years ago. I have no option but to banish you to the naughty corner. Now let that be a lesson to you!!!



Would someone be so kind as to fetch me my coat and top-hat? Duly appreciated, wot-wot.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 22, 2022)

Oh no! 963 Americans permanently banned from visiting The Russia… 









Russia bans 963 Americans from the country including Biden, Harris, Zuckerberg. But not Trump.


The Russian Foreign Ministry announced the list of people banned are American politicians, executives and people "who incite Russophobia."




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (May 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Goose -- geese
> Mice -- meese!


According to Hanna-Barbara documentation, it's meeses, as in "I'll kill you meeses to pieces".

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> According to Hanna-Barbara documentation, it's meeses, as in "I'll kill you meeses to pieces".



I knew there was a reputable reference for this.

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## fubar57 (May 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh no! 963 Americans permanently banned from visiting The Russia…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Mrs. Trudeau banned as well

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## SaparotRob (May 22, 2022)

Maybe I can make a caviar run for those guys. You buy, I'll fly.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 22, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Mrs. Trudeau banned as well



I’m guessing he does not mind at all.

I’d be more proud of being banned by The Russia, than being excluded from that list.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Mrs. Trudeau banned as well



I'm feeling left out. Putin, comrade, where's my rep?!

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## Jabberwocky (May 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How long before they run out of tanks?


[WARNING: THE FOLLOWING IS OPINION BASED ON OPEN SOURCE DOCUMENTATION. IT'S AS ACCURATE AS I CAN MAKE IT GIVEN LIMITED, CIVILIAN RESOURCES]

At current loss rates (circa 12 per day), a LONG time. Open source documented Russian losses are ~700 tanks. Ukrainian claimed Russian losses are 1285 tanks. Halfway point there would be a little under 1000 tank losses in 88 days of fighting. 

Based on open source figures, Russia had about 2800 to 3300 tanks that were in a state that could be considered ready for combat deployment. These are a bit of a mix of older T-72s and T-80s that have been rebuilt and modernised (at a rate of about 200-250 a year) and new production T-90s (built at a rate of about 75-150 a year, although slower in recent years).

Another 1500 to 2000 'modern' tanks - mostly T-80Us and T-72Bs built in the 1980s and into the 1990s - were in storage and could (theoretically) be made combat ready in fairly short order (a number of weeks) with 'light' maintenance and some other work. This assumes that they've been stored properly, haven't been stripped for parts to keep other tanks running and that the stores/parts needed to put them into service are available. I'm not sure how compatible they would be with existing Russian equipment, without proper factory-level modernisations.

A further 5000+ older tanks were in long term storage (mostly T-72As). These would take major modifications and maintenance to put on the battlefield, a process likely taking six or more months. A fair chunk of these would need new autoloaders, for instance, as their old ones aren't compatible with current ammunition types.

That means Russia still has ~1800 to 2300 combat capable tanks, with likely another 1500 to 2000 in reserve that could be fielded with some effort. It's was also replenishing its stocks of 'modern' tanks at a rate of roughly 300 tanks per year (not a given though, as there's *lots* of variables to consider given Russia's new trade/economic situation).

TL;DR on all this - Russia can probably double its total tank losses before it really starts to notice a shortage in the heavy armour department.

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## WARSPITER (May 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> According to Hanna-Barbara documentation, it's meeses, as in "I'll kill you meeses to pieces".

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## XBe02Drvr (May 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’d be more proud of being banned by The Russia, than being excluded from that list.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm feeling left out. Putin, comrade, where's my rep?!


Where do I apply to get on the list? At the Group W bench? Next thing you know, we'll have A MOVEMENT!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Where do I apply to get on the list?



Someone should link him to this thread, and then your ability to transact in rubles can be shut down!

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## gumbyk (May 22, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> TL;DR on all this - Russia can probably double its total tank losses before it really starts to notice a shortage in the heavy armour department.


Yeah, but how many _effective_ crews can they train and deploy?

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## nuuumannn (May 22, 2022)

special ed said:


> Also, The united States of Mexico is the correct grammatical name for "Mexico".



Didn't know that. I like República Oriental del Uruguay (The Oriental Republic of Uruguay)...


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## SaparotRob (May 22, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Yeah, but how many _effective_ crews can they train and deploy?


None?


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## nuuumannn (May 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> banned from visiting *The Russia*…

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## hawkeye2an (May 22, 2022)

gyros, McDonalds fries, mooses, meeses.......this thread gets less and less Vlad every day. I expect the media to take less interest in the war, after all they have advertising to sell..........

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 22, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> gyros, McDonalds fries, mooses, meeses.......this thread gets less and less Vlad every day. I expect the media to take less interest in the war, after all they have advertising to sell..........



Every war has its lulls and upticks.

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## Jagdflieger (May 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And we don't refer to "the Germany" or "the France."
> 
> We use the positive article for the Netherlands, US and UK because the full titles include the modifier "of": the Kingdom of the Netherlands (i.e. kingdom of low-lying lands); the United States of America; the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Thus we use the positive article to distinguish the American United States from any other united states that might be out there. Same-same for the kingdoms, explicitly distinguishing them from other kingdoms (e.g. the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)



Germany's own official name is ("die" Bundesrepublik Deutschland) so: *the *Federal Republic of Germany - English short form: Germany/in German, Deutschland
If it would be in _plural_ "die" Bundesrepublik*en *Deutschland/ "the" Federal Republic*s* of Germany - English short form would still be: Germany
As such* the* Unites State*s *of America _(plural)_*= *therefore not *the* USA but the int'l short from would be*: *USA (nothing to do with a modifier "of")
France's own official name is ("la" République Française) so: *the* French Republic - English short form: France/in French, France
Ukraine's own official name is (Україна) Ukrayina), so: Ukraynia - English short form: Ukraine

So it would be correct only to say USA, UK, Netherlands, Philippines, etc. if we want to start getting picky on common usage of words or terms.
After-all I wouldn't want *the* USA to feel degraded by insinuating/implying that they are merely a geographical region of America, North-America or Canada?  

So back to Russia's attack onto *the* Borderlands

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 22, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> gyros, McDonalds fries, mooses, meeses.......this thread gets less and less Vlad every day. I expect the media to take less interest in the war, after all they have advertising to sell..........



Nothing wrong with a lil side topic conversation. It’s life…

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## Jagdflieger (May 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh no! 963 Americans permanently banned from visiting The Russia…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


no, no , no it's Russia not *the* Russia - want to know why?
Nordic Germanic tribes, the Rus aka the Vikings settled in today's Russia - calling it "Land of *the* Rus", happily marring Slavic chicks and founding numerous fiefs and Kingdoms e.g.
Suzdal, Novgorod, Ryazan etc. in Germanic language "Land der Rus" becomes Russland already beholding "the" and in English being called Russia.
Some of them traveled to Kiev and founded the Principality of Kievan Rus forming a federation of Rus fiefs throughout Western Russia and also happily married Slavic women

Later the "locals" of the Kievan Rus federation, called a specific region *the* Borderlands - due to obvious reasons.
*1240:* Kyiv is sacked by Mongols, who conquer the Rus principalities; Poland and Lithuania absorb the western principalities- no more Kievan Rus but a fief emerging as a new power
at the river Moskva.
And Ukraine in Ukrainian language calls it - or rather loved the name and themselves named it in 1991 again Borderlands

Okay back to *the* Borderlands

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## J_P_C (May 23, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Yeah, but how many _effective_ crews can they train and deploy?


what you mean "effective"? - driving tank or fighting with proper tactics? - answer on the first one is - plenty, on second one - probably very few

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> what you mean "effective"? - driving tank or fighting with proper tactics? - answer on the first one is - plenty, on second one - probably very few



Having a few thousand tanks in reserve is nice, if you have a few thousand tank crews running around with nothing else to do. Otherwise you're still going to have to train the men to run them, and that takes both time and skill.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 23, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> no, no , no it's Russia not *the* Russia - want to know why?
> Nordic Germanic tribes, the Rus aka the Vikings settled in today's Russia - calling it "Land of *the* Rus", happily marring Slavic chicks and founding numerous fiefs and Kingdoms e.g.
> Suzdal, Novgorod, Ryazan etc. in German language Land of the Rus becomes Russland already beholding "the" and in English being called Russia.
> Some of them traveled to Kiev and founded the Principality of Kievan Rus forming a federation of Rus fiefs throughout Western Russia and also happily married Slavic women
> ...



News flash: I was not being serious. I was poking fun at The you. But thanks for the unnecessary history lesson…

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## nuuumannn (May 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> News flash: I was not being serious. I was poking fun at The you. But thanks for the unnecessary history lesson…



Was gonna say, I couldn't tell whether he was being serious or was playing along...

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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Was gonna say, I couldn't tell whether he was being serious or was playing along...


Three guesses, two don't count!

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## Greg Boeser (May 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> News flash: I was not being serious. I was poking fun at The you. But thanks for the unnecessary history lesson…


History lessons are never unnecessary.
Based on the map, Russia needs to recognize the claims of the Pechenegs to their ancestral lands. And Bulgaria has a claim on the Volga river valley.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

I personally love jejune discussions about English-language articles ... but I'm a weirdo.

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## nuuumannn (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I personally love jejune discussions about English-language articles ... but I'm a weirdo.



"Welcome, my friend, welcome..."

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 23, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Was gonna say, I couldn't tell whether he was being serious or was playing along...



If he was playing along, then my sincere apologies. I was poking fun at the whole “To The, or Not to The. That is the Question” thing.

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## Greg Boeser (May 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> If he was playing along, then my sincere apologies. I was poking fun at the whole “To The, or Not to The. That is the Question” thing.


It all depends on what the definition of "the" is.

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## ThomasP (May 23, 2022)

Don't you mean "To The, or Not to The. That is The Question"?

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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

Or is it "Thee" or "Thou"?

In regards to Bulgaria, at one time, Thracia (the ancient people's of modern Bulgaria), extended from the Turkish straights to the modern day Crimea, extended well into modern Romania and as far west as modern Serbia as well as extending southward into portions of modern Greece.

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## MiTasol (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Having a few thousand tanks in reserve is nice, if you have a few thousand tank crews running around with nothing else to do. Otherwise you're still going to have to train the men to run them, and that takes both time and skill.


And most of those qualified to do the training are on holiday in Ukraine - and many have "arranged" to never return to Russia by being killed or injured to a point where they would not be able to train anyone.

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## Admiral Beez (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Having a few thousand tanks in reserve is nice, if you have a few thousand tank crews running around with nothing else to do. Otherwise you're still going to have to train the men to run them, and that takes both time and skill.


I assumed the reserve tanks are for replacing tanks where the crews survive but their tanks have broken down or been destroyed. Though given their exploding tendencies I wonder how many crew survive when their tank does not,

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I assumed the reserve tanks are for replacing tanks where the crews survive but their tanks have broken down or been destroyed. Though given their exploding tendencies I wonder how many crew survive when their tank does not,



Probably, but I'm just addressing the whole "Russia has 8000 tanks" thing that lots of people are tossing around.


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## buffnut453 (May 23, 2022)

Interesting Russian diplomatic resignation:

_Russia's counsellor to the UN in Geneva has resigned over the "bloody, witless and absolutely needless" fighting in Ukraine, making him the country's most senior diplomat to defect over the war.

In a resignation letter, Boris Bondarev said he had seen "different turns" of his country's foreign policy over his 20-year career "but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on 24 February", when Russia launched its attack.

Calling the level of "lies and unprofessionalism" in Russia's Foreign Ministry "catastrophic", he said Vladimir Putin's war was "not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia".

In March, Anatoly Chubais became the most prominent Kremlin official to quit over the war. Chubais, who was Putin's special envoy for relations with international organisations for sustainable development, not only left his post, but Russia too._

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## Admiral Beez (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Probably, but I'm just addressing the whole "Russia has 8000 tanks" thing that lots of people are tossing around.


The video I posted above says that Russia has six thousand tanks in storage, but that no more than three thousand could be readily returned to service. Russia has lost over 1,200 tanks in Ukraine so far, out of their original operational force of under 3,000 tanks. So they will have to start pulling from their reserves soon.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The video I posted above says that Russia has six thousand tanks in storage, but that no more than three thousand could be readily returned to service. Russia has lost over 1,200 tanks in Ukraine so far, out of their original operational force of under 3,000 tanks. So they will have to start pulling from their reserves soon.



There's a question of how modern those reserve tanks are, and how intact they may be. If these allegations by Ukrainian intel have much truth to them --

_Russia is attempting to restore old military equipment held in long-term storage to replace losses suffered during its invasion of Ukraine but it is encountering difficulty in doing so because of corruption and the poor condition of the equipment, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said on Saturday.

Military gear is being removed from long-term storage facilities and is being channeled to a repair and rehabilitation base near the Belarus and Ukraine border, GUR asserted, but in cases such as the Russian 4th Tank Division, the conditions of vehicles are such that only one-in-ten "mothballed" units is in working order.

[...]

"Optical devices and electronics containing precious metals were stolen from the combat vehicles," said GUR. The intelligence body reported that many of the 4th Tank Division's stored tanks were "completely dismantled," and that some did not have engines.

[...]

Another issue hindering movement by Russian vehicles, as related by retired US Defense Department civil servant Trent Telenko in a widely read Twitter thread, is that corruption likely played a role in the lack of maintenance of the tires of military vehicles. Many videos and photographs have emerged of Russian vehicles abandoned even with fuel inside. Telenko assessed that the tires in some vehicles captured by Ukrainian forces, the unexercised tires were falling off. _









Corruption hinders Russia's attempts to replace vehicles - Ukraine


Mothballed Russian military equipment is being taken out of long-term storage, but stolen and missing parts are preventing the replenishment of vehicles and the replacing losses.




www.jpost.com





Of course, given the source, salt should be applied.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 23, 2022)

Ukrainian intelligence chief: Putin survived assassination attempt 2 months ago


The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin survived an assassination attempt two months ago.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

_KYIV/MARIUPOL, May 23 (Reuters) - Kyiv revealed its worst military losses from a single attack of the Ukraine war on Monday, saying 87 people had been killed last week when Russian forces struck a barracks housing troops at a training base in the north.

The disclosure that scores had been killed in the attack demonstrated Russia's ability to inflict huge losses, even far from the front. Previously, Kyiv had said eight people died in the May 17 strike on the barracks in the town of Desna.

"Today we completed work at Desna. In Desna, under the rubble, there were 87 casualties. Eighty-seven corpses," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said during a speech by video link to business leaders in Davos, Switzerland._









Ukraine urges more world pressure, says it repels Russian attack on eastern city


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told global business leaders on Monday the world must increase sanctions against Russia to deter other countries from using "brute force" to achieve their aims.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (May 23, 2022)

More on the resignation of one of Russia's UN diplomats:
_
Boris Bondarev has spoken to the BBC's Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg about why he became the country's most senior diplomat to defect over the war.

"The reason is that I strongly disagree and disapprove of what my government is doing and has been doing at least since February, and I don't want to be associated with that any longer," he said.

Bondarev said it was a case of when, not if, he was going to quit. "I don't see any alternative."

Despite being shocked by the Russian invasion, he said he does not believe his feelings are widespread in the foreign ministry.

"I think most people, the majority of them, are following the propaganda and what their superiors tell them.

"When you work in the ministry you work in a hierarchy, so you must obey what your superior tells you. And for many years any critical approach has been erased from the ministry mostly," he said.

Although he said his decision to leave would not likely change things, he said "it may be one little brick into the bigger wall which would eventually be built".

Asked if he believes he will be considered a traitor, Bondarev said: "I think they are already considering me as such."_

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## SaparotRob (May 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> It all depends on what the definition of "the" is.


Thank you, Mr. President.

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## Jagdflieger (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There's a question of how modern those reserve tanks are, and how intact they may be. If these allegations by Ukrainian intel have much truth to them --
> 
> _Russia is attempting to restore old military equipment held in long-term storage to replace losses suffered during its invasion of Ukraine but it is encountering difficulty in doing so because of corruption and the poor condition of the equipment, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said on Saturday......_


Russia has 96 Brigades of constant combat preparedness (CCP) in Russian termed: ЧПГ - части постоянной готовности – another (approx. 120 Brigades) are in majority inferior units (National-guard, incl. the Ground and coastal defense forces of the Baltic fleet), Border-guard etc. and therefore in majority not suitable for a war in the Borderlands.

Out of these 96 (CCP) Brigades approx. 46 Brigades are equipped/designated into BTG's. As such Russia has "only" around 140 BTG's with an average strength of "only" 600 men.
Of the remaining 50 (CCP) Brigades – approx. 30% are stationed in or around Moscow – designated Putin's Pretorian-Guard, together with another approx. 10 (CCP) Brigades.
The remaining approx. 25 (CCP) Brigades are spread throughout Russia – therefore actually not available to be deployed otherwise.

As for MBT's, there are approx. 4000 active with approx. 10,000+ in reserve/storage
As for AFV's and APC's there are approx. 7000 active with approx. 18,000+ in reserve/storage

It can be realistically assumed that less the 20% of the MBT reserve/storage are ready or suitable for action, and less then 30% of the AFV/APC

Assuming that Putin would send in all CCP Brigades, he could field at maximum approx. 300,000 men, supported by approx. 200,000 men of the National-guard (using them to replace losses within the CCP or BTG units) 100-150,000 militia/irregulars (DNLR) and approx. 30,000 men of the VDV. along a 2300km borderline.
These Russian units would be facing approx. 200,000 Ukraine National-guards, plus approx. 150,000 ill-equipped Ukraine irregulars and maybe an additional 50-80,000 Ukraine national-guards ready by August also streched along a 2300km borderline.
Aside from weapon technology advantages – both sides are more or less equal in strength and will suffer higher losses upon attacking or "liberating" a respective territory.

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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

While those numbers may seem impressive, Scythia cannot bring all of it's forces to bear on Ukraine, as Scythia has forces stationed in the far east, along it's southern border, the Baltic region, Chechnya, Georgia, Kaliningrad, Transneistra and so on.

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## Jagdflieger (May 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> While those numbers may seem impressive, Scythia cannot bring all of it's forces to bear on Ukraine, as Scythia has forces stationed in the far east, along it's southern border, the Baltic region, Chechnya, Georgia, Kaliningrad, Transneistra and so on.


exactly - just as I had mentioned already


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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> exactly - just as I had mentioned already


Pretty sure you stated:


Jagdflieger said:


> Assuming that Putin would send in all CCP Brigades, he could field at maximum approx. 300,000 men



Which led to my reply.

The Putin is not going to pull all of his top-line units away from key positions situated across his Empire, leaving the security of those locations in the care of second-rate troops.

He may pull some bodies out of those units to bolster his forces in Ukraine, but not entire units.


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## special ed (May 23, 2022)

The TV news says The Russia has included John McCain in the list of those banned from visiting the country. They must be using voter rolls.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

special ed said:


> The TV news says The Russia has included John McCain in the list of those banned from visiting the country. They must be using voter rolls.



I suspect he's not very interested in doing business with Russia nowadays.

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## Crimea_River (May 23, 2022)

Busy with other things.....

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## GTX (May 23, 2022)

'If Putin is defeated, Lukashenko will be defeated': Volunteers from Belarus fight for Ukraine


Belarusian volunteers believe that weakening Russian President Vladimir Putin will also harm Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's leadership and they are training to join the International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (May 23, 2022)

Tyrant, war criminal, megalomaniac: Vladimir Putin has many names in the West. In Russia, there's only one that matters


Three months into his war, Vladimir Putin has learned the best way to protect power is to hang onto to it — at any price.




www.abc.net.au

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## gumbyk (May 23, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Germany's own official name is ("die" Bundesrepublik Deutschland) so: *the *Federal Republic of Germany - English short form: Germany/in German, Deutschland
> If it would be in _plural_ "die" Bundesrepublik*en *Deutschland/ "the" Federal Republic*s* of Germany - English short form would still be: Germany
> As such* the* Unites State*s *of America _(plural)_*= *therefore not *the* USA but the int'l short from would be*: *USA (nothing to do with a modifier "of")
> France's own official name is ("la" République Française) so: *the* French Republic - English short form: France/in French, France
> ...


Doesn't change the fact that YOU don't get to pick what someone elses country is called.

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## Glider (May 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'If Putin is defeated, Lukashenko will be defeated': Volunteers from Belarus fight for Ukraine
> 
> 
> Belarusian volunteers believe that weakening Russian President Vladimir Putin will also harm Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's leadership and they are training to join the International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine.
> ...


I wouldn't be surprised if Lukashenko falls before Putin. His hold on power has been heavily dependent on Putin and there does seem to be a groundswell of support for a different leader. Protests have been smothered, a number of people have joined the Ukraine armed forces, industrial sabotage has taken place n particular on the railways, again smothered but the discontent is still going to exist.
Some at least of his forces are now being deployed against Ukraine and should they receive a significant defeat in combat, Lukashenko's hold on power if going to be at significant risk. Russia will not have the feet on the ground to stop him from going, and if he does, then another country on his border is going to fall from Russia's sphere of influence.

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## SaparotRob (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect he's not very interested in doing business with Russia nowadays.


I’d still vote for him again!

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’d still vote for him again!



I would have voted for him until he tapped Palin for VP, which to my mind showed a serious problem in judgement. I won't go any further for obvious reasons. But whether I agreed or disagreed with his policy positions, I had no doubt about his motivation. His scars, mental and physical, bore mute testimony to his belief in our country.

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## SaparotRob (May 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I would have voted for him until he tapped Palin for VP, which to my mind showed a serious problem in judgement. I won't go any further for obvious reasons. But whether I agreed or disagreed with his policy positions, I had no doubt about his motivation. His scars, mental and physical, bore mute testimony to his belief in our country.


Forgot about her. Selective amnesia?

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## Snautzer01 (May 23, 2022)

Where did the z symbol go?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Forgot about her. Selective amnesia?



Hopefully!

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## Admiral Beez (May 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Forgot about her. Selective amnesia?


You betcha!

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## fubar57 (May 23, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Where did the z symbol go?


Whatcha think.... True meaning behind Russian "Z" symbol finally revealed

Just thought I would try get this back on track.....sorta

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## nuuumannn (May 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'If Putin is defeated, Lukashenko will be defeated': Volunteers from Belarus fight for Ukraine
> 
> 
> Belarusian volunteers believe that weakening Russian President Vladimir Putin will also harm Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's leadership and they are training to join the International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine.
> ...



Nice to see the Opel/Vauxhall Vectra being used for something other than as a characterless uninspiring motor vehicle...

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## nuuumannn (May 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'Fish rot from the head': Russia's failure in Ukraine starts with Putin. Can he end his war?Three months into his war, Vladimir Putin has learnt the best way to protect power is to hang onto to it — at any price. www.abc.net.au



On the subject of President Dmitry Medvedev, Putin and Medvedev go into a restaurant and the waiter asks Putin what he wants to eat. Putin says, "I'll have the steak." The waiter then asks, "and the vegetable?" Putin says, "he'll have the steak, too"...

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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Where did the z symbol go?


They may have revised their markings for this "second phase".

I recall seeing images of Russian military equipment in the early days of thw war, with different letters and I was real curious, because they were non-cyrillic, so I looked it.

It turns out, that the letters denoted a certain area that the vehicle/equipment were assigned.

"A" - Alpha Special Forces
"O" - forces staged in Belarus
"V" - Naval Infantry
"X" - Chechen Forces
"Z" - Eastern Military District
"Z in a square" - Crimean garrison

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## Jagdflieger (May 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure you stated:
> 
> 
> Which led to my reply.
> ...


_.....therefore actually not available to be deployed otherwise..... and assuming....._
Taking Russia's size and neighboring countries into account, common sense will dictate that at no time Putin would able able to move more then 60% of his forces towards the Borderlands.


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## GrauGeist (May 23, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> _.....therefore actually not available to be deployed otherwise..... and assuming....._
> Taking Russia's size and neighboring countries into account, common sense will dictate that at no time Putin would able able to move more then 60% of his forces towards the Borderlands.


So now we've gone from "all CCP brigades" to "no more than 60%"

Okie dokie...

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## Jagdflieger (May 23, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Doesn't change the fact that YOU don't get to pick what someone elses country is called.


No, but I am free to call or refer to a country, in whatever way I choose - e.g. the US, USA, the USA, the States, without a normal citizen of that country making a fuss about nothing. 
Just as I can say Australia, Down-under, the Land Down-under, the Antipodes, etc. with out a local person falling into a national identity crisis.


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## Jagdflieger (May 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So now we've gone from "all CCP brigades" to "no more than 60%"
> 
> Okie dokie...


Somehow you don't to seem to understand the meaning of assuming.


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## buffnut453 (May 23, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, but I am free to call or refer to a country, in whatever way I choose - e.g. the US, USA, the USA, the States, without a normal citizen of that country making a fuss about nothing.
> Just as I can say Australia, Down-under, the Land Down-under, the Antipodes, etc. with out a local person falling into a national identity crisis.



Funny how none of your examples have suffered domination by an autocratic external dictatorship within the human lifespan. Nor have they, in the process of shaking off that yoke, had to re-establish their own national identity despite concerted efforts in the information domain by the remnants of that autocratic dictatorship to put the emergent nation back in its box. Nor have they been invaded by said autocratic external dictatorship. Nor are any of them fighting for their very existence right now. 

So, for me, I'll listen to what the Ukrainians call their country and if they ask me to do likewise, I'll gladly and proudly abide by their request. Why? Because I respect the hell out of what they're doing standing up to one of the biggest bullies on the world stage. Because I mourn for the suffering they've had to endure and that they continue to suffer. And because I try not to be a dick who puts his ego above common humanity.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So, for me, I'll listen to what the Ukrainians call their country and if they ask me to do likewise, I'll gladly and proudly abide by their request. Why? Because I respect the hell out of what they're doing standing up to one of the biggest bullies on the world stage. Because I mourn for the suffering they've had to endure and that they continue to suffer. And because I try not to be a dick who puts his ego above common humanity.



It costs me nothing to be courteous. I forgo the extraneous "the" in front of "Ukraine" for this reason. I grew up hearing it as "the" Ukraine. But if Ukrainians don't like it, I'm fine. There's bigger concerns here, and putting this one away is so easy that it's dumb to argue over it, in my view.

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## gumbyk (May 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Why? Because I respect the hell out of what they're doing standing up to one of the biggest bullies on the world stage.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> It costs me nothing to be courteous.


Yep - some people just don't know, or don't care about respect and courtesy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 23, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Yep - some people just don't know, or don't care about respect and courtesy.



I'm not gonna slag someone for writing/speaking they way they learnt. I've been on the wrong end of that in very embarrassing ways. It's just easier for me to go along to get along than to fight over a hill such as deploying the article "the".

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## Jagdflieger (May 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not gonna slag someone for writing/speaking they way they learnt. I've been on the wrong end of that in very embarrassing ways. It's just easier for me to go along to get along than to fight over a hill such as deploying the article "the".


Rest assured it has nothing to do with "the", until there is a defined Ukraine as such. But you will certainly understand that I will not get myself into a discussion on this matter on this forum.

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## fubar57 (May 24, 2022)

Ummmm................

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Rest assured it has nothing to do with "the", until there is a defined Ukraine as such. But you will certainly understand that I will not get myself into a discussion on this matter on this forum.



I think Ukraine is pretty well-defined. I also think that while folks are fighting and dying, arguing over "the" Ukraine or simply "Ukraine" is kinda missing the story entirely.


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## GrauGeist (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Rest assured it has nothing to do with "the", *until there is a defined Ukraine as such*. But you will certainly understand that I will not get myself into a discussion on this matter on this forum.


Ukraine is a well defined, internationally recognized and sovereign nation.

Not sure if you've heard or not, but this happened in the early 90's


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## ThomasP (May 24, 2022)

Sigh . . . I know I am goin to hate myself for this:





Also see 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk "Treaty of Brest-Litovsk - Wikipedia" for the map below:





Also see History of Ukraine "History of Ukraine - Wikipedia" for more detail of the region before 1654.

Also see Ukraine "Ukraine - Wikipedia" for some details of its history worth knowing.

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## GrauGeist (May 24, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Sigh . . . I know I am goin to hate myself for this:
> View attachment 670543
> 
> Also see 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk "Treaty of Brest-Litovsk - Wikipedia" for the map below:
> ...


That's a good detail of the historical timeline, though a bit shorter than what transpired in the longerer historical timeline.

Back in the days of Thracia (modern day Bulgaria), most of today's Ukraine was within their territory, most wrested from the Scythians (who occupied a large swath of modern day Russia).

It's both sad and a bit funny that some people consider the Ukranian region part of Russia.
The Kyev dynasty existed long before Russia, the Kyevs adopted the Bulgarian's Cyrillic alphabet and created an empire.

Russia would not exist as we know it, if it weren't for the ancestors of Ukraine.

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## WARSPITER (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, but I am free to call or refer to a country, in whatever way I choose - e.g. the US, USA, the USA, the States, without a normal citizen of that country making a fuss about nothing.
> Just as I can say Australia, Down-under, the Land Down-under, the Antipodes, etc. with out a local person falling into a national identity crisis.


Yeah but do not call it The Australia.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 24, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Yeah but do not call it The Australia.


Downunderland!

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## WARSPITER (May 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Downunderland!


That'll do nicely !

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## Snautzer01 (May 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Downunderland!


Write it the right way please.

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## Stig1207 (May 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russia would not exist as we know it, if it weren't for the ancestors of Ukraine.


So it is Ukraine's fault!

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

I come back to this thread to see what’s up in the Russian-Ukraine war, and all I see are the wilfully Oblivious bickering about the name of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have told us how to refer to their country, the matter is settled. Take it off line to DMs please, no one else cares.

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## vikingBerserker (May 24, 2022)



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## Dimlee (May 24, 2022)

Switchblade in action.

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

More comedy from Lavrov:
_
Russia's foreign minister says that Moscow would consider offers from the West to re-establish ties, but for now will focus on developing relations with China.

Sergei Lavrov accused Western countries of espousing "Russophobia" since Moscow launched its "special military operation" in Ukraine, which is how the Kremlin defines its invasion.

"If [the West] want to offer something in terms of resuming relations, then we will seriously consider whether we will need it or not," Lavrov said at an event, according to a transcript on the foreign ministry's website last night.

Russia "must cease being dependent in any way on supplies" coming from the West, he added.

Moscow's goal now is to further develop ties with China, he said.

Russia would count on "only ourselves and on countries which have proved themselves reliable and do not 'dance to some other piper's music'", he said.

"If Western countries change their minds and propose some form of cooperation, we can then decide."_

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

And Russian nationalists are urging escalation of Russia's efforts in Ukraine, to include full mobilization. Some of the language seems perilously close to "this is an existential threat to Russia":
_
Russian nationalists are increasingly criticising the failures of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine and are calling for further action, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Veterans and military commentators are increasingly calling for further mobilisation "that the Kremlin likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term", the ISW says.

The All-Russian Officers Assembly, an independent pro-Russian veterans' association, called on President Putin "to recognise that Russian forces are no longer only 'de-Nazifying' Ukraine but are fighting a war for Russia's historic territories and existence in the world order", the ISW reports.

The officers also reportedly demanded the death penalty for Russian deserters.

The Assembly said that Moscow has failed to achieve its goals in three months, especially after a failed river crossing where a Russian battalion lost almost all its armoured vehicles this month.

This event "shocked Russian military observers and prompted them to question Russian competence", the ISW had previously said._

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Interesting insight into the potential quagmire that Russia is getting itself into...resistance operators in occupied Melitopol claim to have killed 70 Russian soldiers between 20 March and 12 April:
_
When Russian forces arrived in the southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol in February, they were met with stiff resistance from residents.

Locals tried to block armoured vehicles, and people waved Ukrainian flags as Russian troops rolled in to occupy the city.

When the troops started to crack down on the protestors, the resistance movement evolved and new groups emerged.

From 20 March to 12 April, these "partisans eliminated 70 Russian soldiers during their night patrol," Ukraine's military Intelligence Directorate reported.

These groups are still active - last week, a Russian armoured train was reportedly derailed. Two Russian soldiers were found dead in the street days earlier.

Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, says these attacks were organised by partisan groups. "It's the job of our partisans, our secret services and our soldiers. They do this job together," he tells the BBC.

In response, the Russians are desperately trying to crush all resistance. They are searching houses and detaining people, residents say, often at random.

These resistance groups, however, are only a small part of the movement._

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Moscow's goal now is to further develop ties with China, he said._


Does Russia really think they'll be treated fairly by China? China is an economic and military powerhouse, Russia is not. China will buy Russia's fossil fuels, but will demand terms in their favour.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Switchblade in action.



I'd want to see a lot more videos of exploding Russian artillery and not so many of MBTs and BMPs before I think Ukraine is capable of a major offensive.

The recent Russian advances south of Severodonetsk and northwest of Popasna are looking very worrisome. If not checked by the Ukrainians, they could lead to a double envelopment of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

_KYIV/SLOVYANSK, Ukraine, May 24 (Reuters) - Russian forces were launching an all-out assault to encircle Ukrainian troops in twin cities straddling a river in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, a battle which could determine the success or failure of Moscow's main campaign in the east.

[...]

The easternmost part of the Ukrainian-held Donbas pocket, the city of Sievierodonetsk on the east bank of the Siverskiy Donets river and its twin Lysychansk on the west bank, have become the pivotal battlefield there, with Russian forces advancing from three directions to encircle them.

"The enemy has focused its efforts on carrying out an offensive in order to encircle Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk," said Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Luhansk province, where the two cities are among the last territory still held by Ukraine.

"The intensity of fire on Sievierodonetsk has increased by multiple times, they are simply destroying the city," he said on TV, adding there were about 15,000 people in the city.

Reuters journalists in the Donbas, who reached Bakhmut further west, heard and saw intense shelling on the highway towards Lysychansk on Monday. Ukrainian armoured vehicles, tanks and rocket launchers were moving towards the front lines, with and buses carrying soldiers.

[...]

Gaidai said Ukrainian forces had driven the Russians out of the village of Toshkivka just south of Sievierodonetsk. Russian-backed separatists said they had taken control of Svitlodarsk, south of Bakhmut. Neither report could be independently confirmed._









Russia wages all-out assault to encircle Ukraine troops in east


Russian forces waged an all-out assault on Tuesday to encircle Ukrainian troops in twin eastern cities straddling a river, a battle that could determine the success or failure of Moscow's main campaign in the industrial heartland of Donbas.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Russia really think they'll be treated fairly by China? China is an economic and military powerhouse, Russia is not. China will buy Russia's fossil fuels, but will demand terms in their favour.



I did say it was more comedy from Lavrov.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And Russian nationalists are urging escalation of Russia's efforts in Ukraine, to include full mobilization. Some of the language seems perilously close to "this is an existential threat to Russia":
> 
> [...]
> 
> The All-Russian Officers Assembly, an independent pro-Russian veterans' association, called on President Putin "to recognise that Russian forces are no longer only 'de-Nazifying' Ukraine but are fighting a war for Russia's historic territories and existence in the world order", the ISW reports.



In a very real sense they're right; failure in Ukraine could well lead to internal unrest and Putin's overthrow, which could in turn lead to Russian collapse in the world order. The problem with their logic is that they're ignoring the fact that Russia brought this state of affairs upon itself.

And even if the Russians win militarily, they won't be able to digest Ukraine. The resistance that will certainly spring up will remind Russians of Afghanistan, and end in the same ignominious manner, I believe, which would still result in the dangers above.

If follows that the Russians should starve defeat rather than reinforce it.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And even if the Russians win militarily, they won't be able to digest Ukraine.


The will be able to digest whatever parts of Donbas and the north coast of the Sea of Azov they hold when the fighting stops. The Russians will depopulate/relocate the Ukrainians and any questionable Russian speakers and bring in new people loyal to the Kremlin. That's exactly what they did to the Germans living in what became Kaliningrad in 1945.


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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The will be able to digest whatever parts of Donbas and the north coast of the Sea of Azov they hold when the fighting stops. The Russians will depopulate/relocate the Ukrainians and any questionable Russian speakers and bring in new people loyal to the Kremlin. That's exactly what they did to the Germans living in what became Kaliningrad in 1945.



Yes, and then they'll have the cost of rebuilding that entire area. They've totally destroyed much of the existing infrastructure such as the steelworks in Mariupol. They'll need to rebuild houses, industries, roads, bridges...how on earth do they think they'll manage that if they're chained down by sanctions? If they simply "print more money", it'll send inflation skyrocketing. 

We've commented before about the poor quality of operational planning by the Russian military. However, there's a bigger problem at play: the total lack of strategy is breathtaking.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yes, and then they'll have the cost of rebuilding that entire area. They've totally destroyed much of the existing infrastructure such as the steelworks in Mariupol. They'll need to rebuild houses, industries, roads, bridges...how on earth do they think they'll manage that if they're chained down by sanctions? If they simply "print more money", it'll send inflation skyrocketing.
> 
> We've commented before about the poor quality of operational planning by the Russian military. However, there's a bigger problem at play: the total lack of strategy is breathtaking.



Or they simply leave it un-rebuilt like they did much of East Berlin and East Germany until the East and West reunited.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The will be able to digest whatever parts of Donbas and the north coast of the Sea of Azov they hold when the fighting stops. The Russians will depopulate/relocate the Ukrainians and any questionable Russian speakers and bring in new people loyal to the Kremlin. That's exactly what they did to the Germans living in what became Kaliningrad in 1945.



And that too will be a burden on them for several generations. Urban insurgencies can work as well as rural fights -- just ask us Americans about Iraq. And if the Russians win out, how will they make the area productive again?


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## at6 (May 24, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Whatcha think.... True meaning behind Russian "Z" symbol finally revealed
> 
> Just thought I would try get this back on track.....sorta


Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz,snork!

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## at6 (May 24, 2022)

It's sort of ironic. The Ukrainians elect a comedian to be president and now the Russians have to realize that he's no joke.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

at6 said:


> It's sort of ironic. The Ukrainians elect a comedian to be president and now the Russians have to realize that he's no joke.


It must be rare that an actor goes from the screen to president in one step. Reagan was governor of California before becoming POTUS. 

The only other I can think of is #HeWhoShallBeNamed

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or they simply leave it un-rebuilt like they did much of East Berlin and East Germany until the East and West reunited.



It rather depends on how the "liberated" areas are categorized. If they're "independent" then what you propose may be the outcome. If they are absorbed into greater Russia, then I suspect there will have to be significant redevelopment so Moscow can show the fruits of all the sacrifices by their soldiers.

Regardless, the whole mess is still a strategic cluster. Putin invaded because he didn't want NATO along Russia's borders...and yet, by taking over parts of Ukraine, he actually pushes Russia's borders closer to NATO...and that's before we look at the unintended outcomes like Finland joining NATO. Like I said...zero strategic vision.

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## wlewisiii (May 24, 2022)

Oh Boy! They really are running low on modern tanks...

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh Boy! They really are running low on modern tanks...



T-62s? That's obsolete trash, especially if there's no ERA - but has any Russian tank's ERA worked yet? Jeez, it'll be T-55s next. 

Maybe the Ukrainians can get some upgunned Centurions to match them. Mind you, if the UAF had Sho't Kal Israeli-spec Centurions they'd clear the battlefield of anything T-72 or older.


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## GTX (May 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh Boy! They really are running low on modern tanks...



Wow! If true.


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## GTX (May 24, 2022)

Hundreds of decomposing bodies found in rubble of Mariupol high-rise


Locals say the stench of around 200 decomposing bodies located in a Mariupol high-rise can be easily smelled throughout the destroyed region.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> T-62s? That's obsolete trash, especially if there's no ERA - but has any Russian tank's ERA worked yet? Jeez, it'll be T-55s next.
> 
> Maybe the Ukrainians can get some upgunned Centurions to match them. Mind you, if the UAF had Sho't Kal Israeli-spec Centurions they'd clear the battlefield of anything T-72 or older.



T-62 has a targeting range of 800 meters at night/low visibility. That's pathetic, and truly asking for night-time hit-and-run attacks by small forces equipped with MANPADs.


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## Jagdflieger (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Putin invaded because he didn't want NATO along Russia's borders...and yet, by taking over parts of Ukraine, he actually pushes Russia's borders closer to NATO...and that's before we look at the unintended outcomes like Finland joining NATO. Like I said...zero strategic vision.


maybe your analysis is a bit too simple?

1. Putin does not accept Kiev's drive to become a NATO member, and insisted onto it's neutrality, due to the 1991 treaty, that also defines the borders of Ukraine
2. Ukraine annulled the "neutrality clause" in 2010, therefore Putin does not accept it's borders - defined entirely by the Soviet Union and "granted" by Jelzin in 1991 under the pretext of Ukraine being a member of CIS, (Alma-Ata Declaration) Ukraine and Georgia had decided to resign their membership in 2018 respectively Georgia in 2009.
3. Taking the existence of the Baltic republics (never been CIF members) into account and already being NATO members - he certainly doesn't see Finland as an additional threat, but rather as an elongation of an already threatening NATO borderline towards Russia. (aside from one attack under Stalin) - there has never been a war or warlike tensions between Finland and Russia caused by the latter since 1939, and after that till 1944 it was Finland that had allied with the Nazis against Russia. (naturally hoping to regain lost territory).
4. That Putin isn't happy about Finland haven given up on it's neutrality - is understood, and he will also have to take the blame for that in the Duma.

CIS (_The CIS Heads of States meeting on 26 August 2005 adopted several resolutions, including one *on military cooperation* and another on the fight against terrorism_).
_The CIS Defense Ministers Council met on 20 June 2007 to discuss *military cooperation*. Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said that the Council had created a specific military cooperation plan through 2010._

So Putin's stance is indeed very simple: if a member breaks the Alma-Ata-Declaration - okay, let's talk about the respective borders of e.g. Ukraine because the one it holds are those
of *the* Ukraine. And Putin went into action in 2014 e.g. by accepting the "independence declarations" of the Donbass and Luhansk republic and after occupying the Crimea - the Crimea
republic.....and.......

Okay back to war talk and who destroyed how many of what...


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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> T-62 has a targeting range of 800 meters at night/low visibility. That's pathetic, and truly asking for night-time hit-and-run attacks by small forces equipped with MANPADs.


Unless they're aplenty, I'm not sure I'd want my guys wasting the latest Stinger, Javelin and NLAW MANPATs on T-62s. FYI, MANPADS are air defence weapons. But you have it right, night time, up close with a good old school anti-tank weapon like ex-USSR 9K32 Strela is just the ticket.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Unless they're aplenty, I'm not sure I'd want my guys wasting the latest Stinger, Javelin and NLAW MANPATs on T-62s. FYI, MANPADS are air defence weapons. But you have it right, night time, up close with a good old school anti-tank weapon like ex-USSR 9K32 Strela is just the ticket.



Sorry for the brainfart, I obviously meant MANPA*T*s and thanks for the correction. I don't think it's a waste to use them on T-62s, given what the latter can do in daylight. You'd want to kill them when their systems perform at their weakest.

But the Strela is actually a SAM and not an ATGM. Good luck knocking out a tank with it. Of course, that might well be a brainfart on your part, so it's all good.

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## wlewisiii (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> T-62s? That's obsolete trash, especially if there's no ERA - but has any Russian tank's ERA worked yet? Jeez, it'll be T-55s next.
> 
> Maybe the Ukrainians can get some upgunned Centurions to match them. Mind you, if the UAF had Sho't Kal Israeli-spec Centurions they'd clear the battlefield of anything T-72 or older.


I'd rather fight a T-55 than the T-62. It wasn't much of a step forward and with the 100mm ATGM, the T-55 is better.

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## GrauGeist (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Unless they're aplenty, I'm not sure I'd want my guys wasting the latest Stinger, Javelin and NLAW MANPATs on T-62s. FYI, MANPADS are air defence weapons. But you have it right, night time, up close with a good old school anti-tank weapon like ex-USSR 9K32 Strela is just the ticket.


Taking out a Russian asset, regardless of make or type, is not a "waste" - it is one less asset the Russians have available to them.

MANPADS may be designed for surface to air, but plenty of anti-aircraft weapons have proven to be effective against ground targets in the past.

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## Glider (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> T-62s? That's obsolete trash, especially if there's no ERA - but has any Russian tank's ERA worked yet? Jeez, it'll be T-55s next.
> 
> Maybe the Ukrainians can get some upgunned Centurions to match them. Mind you, if the UAF had Sho't Kal Israeli-spec Centurions they'd clear the battlefield of anything T-72 or older.


Now would be a good time to get the German government to donate those Leopard 1's

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> Now would be a good time to get the German government to donate those Leopard 1's


As a Canadian I should know, but I wonder what we did with our Leopard 1s. Ukraine needs some Abrams. I hope the US is training some UAFs on them now in Poland. Imagine how many T-62s a single squad of Abrams could kill.

This war is going to go on like Israel's wars with its neighbours. They keep attacking, keep getting their asses kicked, seeking peace, waiting for a few years and attack again, and repeat, before eventually they settle on a means to live beside each other. If like after 2014 this 2022 war ends with a ceasefire, the two sides will spend five years preparing for another war, until the Russians finally say, okay, we can live with Ukraine.

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## GTX (May 24, 2022)

Russia's capacity to continue its Ukraine offensive may be reaching a peak. Four challenges loom


The capacity of the Russian military in Ukraine is corroding but we should not assume this means the Russians are defeated, nor that they will soon depart. They will change tack, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## vikingBerserker (May 24, 2022)

At this rate, they will have to bring these back too:

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Maybe this one will keep its turret on?









Why did Russia develop a mini-tank that was never subsequently brought into service?


In the early 1960s the Soviet Union developed one of the world's smallest tanks armed with the first missiles.




www.rbth.com

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> maybe your analysis is a bit too simple?
> 
> 1. Putin does not accept Kiev's drive to become a NATO member, and insisted onto it's neutrality, due to the 1991 treaty, that also defines the borders of Ukraine
> 2. Ukraine annulled the "neutrality clause" in 2010, therefore Putin does not accept it's borders - defined entirely by the Soviet Union and "granted" by Jelzin in 1991 under the pretext of Ukraine being a member of CIS, (Alma-Ata Declaration) Ukraine and Georgia had decided to resign their membership in 2018 respectively Georgia in 2009.
> ...



My "analysis" (that's a grand term for my spoutings) is undoubtedly too simple. However....

1. Kiev's drive to become a NATO member really started in 2008 so how does that justify an invasion in 2022? How does ANYTHING that Ukraine has done justify an invasion?

2. How did Ukraine annul the neutrality clause in 2010? Even if it did, why did it take 4 years for Russia to initially act, and a further 8 years to invade? 

3. Since Ukraine withdrew from the CIS it is no longer subject to its provisos. That would be like saying that the CIS are still subject to the protocols of the USSR. 

4. I sense there isn't a lot of blame flowing up to Putin from the Duma. Hagiography and arse-kissing? Yes. Blame and criticism? Not a chance.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> My "analysis" (that's a grand term for my spoutings) is undoubtedly too simple. However....
> 
> 1. Kiev's drive to become a NATO member really started in 2008 so how does that justify an invasion in 2022? How does ANYTHING that Ukraine has done justify an invasion?


In Jan 2010, Putin-puppet Viktor Yanukovych became president of Ukraine and canceled Ukraine's drive for NATO membership. This mollified Putin until Yanukovych was thrown out of power in the 2014 revolution and fled to exile in Russia, leading Putin to seize Crimea. In November 2014 after Russia had seized Crimea, Ukraine's new president, Petro Poroshenko announced that the country is now again pursuing NATO membership. From then on it was only a matter of time before either Ukraine gained NATO membership or they were brought back under Russian control through either regime change in Kyiv or military occupation. The race was on.

You have to like former president Poroshenko. He's not giving Zelensky any trouble, and is a good spokesperson for arms and assistance.

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In Jan 2010, Putin-puppet Viktor Yanukovych became president of Ukraine and canceled Ukraine's drive for NATO membership. This mollified Putin until Yanukovych was thrown out of power in the 2014 revolution and fled to exile in Russia, leading Putin to seize Crimea. In November 2014 after Russia had seized Crimea, Ukraine's new president, Petro Poroshenko announced that the country is now again pursuing NATO membership. From then on it was only a matter of time before either Ukraine gained NATO membership or they were brought back under Russian control through either regime change in Kyiv or military occupation. The race was on.



Yes, but that doesn't explain how Ukraine's actions in 2010 nullified the neutrality clause. If Yanukovych cancelled Ukraine's (then 2-year old) drive for NATO membership, surely that would strengthen Ukraine's neutrality rather than annulling it?


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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

In other news, Poland has sent a "very large number" of tanks to Ukraine:
_
Poland has sent a "very large number" of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland's defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany," he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that's a big disappointment for us," he said._

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## Glider (May 24, 2022)

I have to say that of all the NATO countries Germany are not doing well

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## Denniss (May 24, 2022)

What do the Poles think - Abrakadabra and the Leo2s are in their service?
German armed forces have no spare Leo2 available and those in hands of the industry seem to require reactivation/refurbishment.

BTW in german news are reports that a russian airforce general was shot down in his Su-25 by a Stinger. His name was given as Generalmajor Kanamat Botaschow

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## Dimlee (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> maybe your analysis is a bit too simple?
> 
> 1. Putin does not accept Kiev's drive to become a NATO member, and insisted onto it's neutrality, due to the 1991 treaty, that also defines the borders of Ukraine
> 2. Ukraine annulled the "neutrality clause" in 2010, therefore Putin does not accept it's borders - defined entirely by the Soviet Union and "granted" by Jelzin in 1991 under the pretext of Ukraine being a member of CIS, (Alma-Ata Declaration) Ukraine and Georgia had decided to resign their membership in 2018 respectively Georgia in 2009.
> ...


1. There was no "neutrality" or "border defining" treaty in 1991. Ukraine's borders are the same as that of the Ukrainian SSR. 
2. Ukraine did not "annul" anything in 2010. Actually, in 2010, Ukraine prolonged the lease of the Russian base in Sevastopol, as the only exception to the de-facto neutrality status. Yeltsin never granted anything. CIS membership has never been linked to the borders or vice versa.
3. Finland "allied" with Germany against USSR (not only Russia which was represented by RFSFR at that time) after the USSR attacked Finland.
Ukraine did not break the Alma-Ata declaration or any other document of CIS or any treaty with the Russian Federation.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> MANPADS may be designed for surface to air, but plenty of anti-aircraft weapons have proven to be effective against ground targets in the past.



As have plenty of Surface to Surface weapons such as RPGs proven to be effective against aircraft.

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## Jerad (May 24, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Кстати, в немецких новостях сообщают, что генерал ВВС России был сбит на своем Су-25 «Стингером». Его имя было дано как генерал-майор Канамат Боташоу.



*Retired Russian Air Force Major General Kanamat Botashev was shot down and killed in the sky over Ukraine. Information about the death of the pilot was confirmed to the BBC by three former subordinates of Botashev, who kept in touch with him after the end of the service. They requested anonymity for personal security reasons.*
Kanamat Botashev was born in 1959 in Karachay-Cherkessia, graduated from the Yeysk Higher Military Aviation Institute and qualified as a fighter-bomber. He rose from lieutenant to general.









"Стингер" на выходе из атаки, взрыв в воздухе и… Всё". Российские паблики обсуждают гибель летчика-генерала - BBC News Русская служба


В небе над Украиной был сбит и погиб генерал-майор военно-воздушных сил России в отставке Канамат Боташев. Информацию о гибели летчика подтвердили Би-би-си три бывших подчиненных Боташева, которые поддерживали с ним связь после окончания службы.




www.bbc.com

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## hawkeye2an (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I come back to this thread to see what’s up in the Russian-Ukraine war, and all I see are the wilfully Oblivious bickering about the name of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have told us how to refer to their country, the matter is settled. Take it off line to DMs please, no one else caresC.


Couldn't agree more. You expect the media to go somewhere else at this point in the war, but expect more here. The. gyros, fries............

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Jerad said:


> *Retired Russian Air Force Major General Kanamat Botashev was shot down and killed in the sky over Ukraine. Information about the death of the pilot was confirmed to the BBC by three former subordinates of Botashev, who kept in touch with him after the end of the service. They requested anonymity for personal security reasons.*
> Kanamat Botashev was born in 1959 in Karachay-Cherkessia, graduated from the Yeysk Higher Military Aviation Institute and qualified as a fighter-bomber. He rose from lieutenant to general.
> 
> 
> ...



I'm confused. If he was retired, why was he flying an Su-25 over Ukraine? If he wasn't retired, why the hell was a Major General flying combat ops?

There's something distinctly hokey about this.

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## Jabberwocky (May 24, 2022)

T-62 thing is super interesting. Looks like they might be going for rear areas/security operations use. Russia designated about 900 T-62s as active reserves in the mid 2010s, using T-62Ms that had been modernised in the mid to late 1980s. A bunch of these were then given to Syria between 2017 and 2019 (where they didn't perform particularly well...). The T-62M really only left active Russian service in 2018 - although it had been reduced to 'anti-terrorist' operations by then (read: intimidating Georgians upset at Russia occupying their country).

The T-62M is not a modern tank by any means, and it is inferior to even the base level T-72As. The list of vulnerabilities and flaws is hideous (cramped, poor internal ammunition placement, weird gun reload/depression/traverse issues, terrible sights, rear armour vulnerable to light autocannon). Biggest drawback is that nearly all of the updates lack thermal sights and night vision for the driver. There's a IR system, but that's aparrently useless beyond 250-300m. Which means that they basically can't be used at night.

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## Crimea_River (May 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As a Canadian I should know, but I wonder what we did with our Leopard 1s.....



A number are saved for museums and a bunch, if not the rest, were decommissioned and sent to Cold Lake Air Weapons Range for target practice.









Repurposed Leopard 1 tanks invade Vegreville | Globalnews.ca


The central Alberta town has been invaded by a part of Canadian military history.




globalnews.ca

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## Jerad (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm confused. If he was retired, why was he flying an Su-25 over Ukraine? If he wasn't retired, why the hell was a Major General flying combat ops?
> 
> There's something distinctly hokey about this.


Сan be
I saw this news in morning, i was not sure "bbc" like source. But Аdvisor-President A.Arestovich confirm this information at 22-00 Kiev. 
Although I understand that his words cannot be a 100% guarantee either, but he this boy who values his reputation
Regarding ship General Makarov, he was first say that it was too early to rejoice


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## SaparotRob (May 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm confused. If he was retired, why was he flying an Su-25 over Ukraine? If he wasn't retired, why the hell was a Major General flying combat ops?
> 
> There's something distinctly hokey about this.


Could Putin have been thinning the ranks of less supportive competitors officers all along?

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## Jagdflieger (May 24, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Or they simply leave it un-rebuilt like they did much of East Berlin and East Germany until the East and West reunited.


Oleh Ustenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on economic issues, said at a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center:
The total value of direct and indirect losses inflicted by the aggressor on Ukraine has already reached about $1 trillion.

The Gross Domestic Product (*GDP*) in *Ukraine* was worth $165 billion US dollars in 2021, according to official data from the World Bank.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Denniss said:


> What do the Poles think - Abrakadabra and the Leo2s are in their service?
> German armed forces have no spare Leo2 available and those in hands of the industry seem to require reactivation/refurbishment.


I think the Poles want the German armoured units, with their crews, rather than to take their tanks away. Besides, the Germans will need them.



Why Germany Is Reluctant To Give Deadly Leopard 2 Battle Tanks To Ukraine Amid Putin’s Onslaught



I do wonder if Canada will be sending a Leo2 armoured regiment to the Baltics to join our IFV equipped force there. If they so, the Germans could redeploy from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to Poland.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Oleh Ustenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on economic issues, said at a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center:
> The total value of direct and indirect losses inflicted by the aggressor on Ukraine has already reached about $1 trillion.
> 
> The Gross Domestic Product (*GDP*) in *Ukraine* was worth $165 billion US dollars in 2021, according to official data from the World Bank.


Maybe Ukraine will need to follow Germany’s example post-1945 and import millions of Turks and Asian/African people to rebuild.

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## at6 (May 24, 2022)

One way to slow the Russians down might be to give them Monkey Pox.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

An interesting thread on the T-62.

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## Admiral Beez (May 24, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> The T-62M is not a modern tank by any means, and it is inferior to even the base level T-72As.


One advantage of the T-62 is the lack of the T-72’s auto loader and carrousel of ammunition under floor ready to pop off the turret. Though the Russians will have a marked deficit in trained MBT loaders, having not needed them for decades.

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## buffnut453 (May 24, 2022)

Some more info about the claimed Botashev shoot down. If this is accurate, he seems to have been a pretty dangerous operator (and not in a good way). The possibility of mercenary pilots of the Wagner Group is also interesting, not least because any combat aircraft they fly can only come from the Russian military:









63-Year-Old Retired Russian Fighter Pilot Shot Down In Su-25 Over Ukraine


Like Top Gun's Pete "Maverick" Mitchell, retired Russian Maj. Gen. Kanamat Botashev was a hot dog who broke the rules.




www.thedrive.com

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## ThomasP (May 24, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

Did you mean the Alma Ata Protocols? (The Alma Ata Declaration is a WHO sponsored agreement "reaffirming health as a state of being that means more than just not being sick. It identifies socioeconomic inequities as a cause of poor health, gives states responsibility for the health of their citizens, re-commits to health as a right and, finally, commits to first-level, frontline health care as the key to achieving health for all."

The Alma Ata Protocols were a voluntary agreement between the form USSR states. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, and Georgia, refused to join in 1991.

Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia never joined.
Mongolia has Observer status.
Turkmenistan became an Associate Member in 2005.
Georgia subsequently became a Full Member in 1993.
Ukraine signed the original letter of intent to join, but chose subsequently not to ratify the Charter, instead becoming an Associate Member in 1994. However, they did become signatory to some of the Articles in the original CIS Charter.

Georgia is the only full member to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States, doing so in 2008 after fellow CIS member Russia invaded.

Ukraine formally withdrew from its Associate Membership in 2018 as a reaction to fellow CIS member Russia's invasion of the Donbass territory. Due to the recent invasion of Ukraine, the Ukraine government is in the formal process of de-ratifying some of the Articles.

Note that only Article#6 in the Alma Ata Protocols speaks to the members maintaining a neutral status, and that only applies to Nuclear Weapons.

Below is a copy of the original CIS Charter. Pay particular notice to Articles 2, 3, 6, 8, and 10 of the Agreement/Protocols.

Edit: Made two typos, the 5s should have been 6s. Made the correction.

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## ThomasP (May 25, 2022)

re the T-62s being brought up:

IMO if the Russians are smart they will send in their older tanks instead of their best front line stuff. If it is as it appears (ie that even the latest Russian tanks are very vulnerable to the current MANPATS) then a T-62M will do the job just as well as a T-72M - at least in terms of protecting the crew. Plus this way the Russians can maintain their latest stuff for the possibility of war with the US/NATO, and/or prepare them for a full scale war with Ukraine and subsequent invasion with greater force than they have used so far.

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> this way the Russians can maintain their latest stuff for the possibility of war with the US/NATO,


There is no possibility of war with NATO unless Russia starts it. That’s one advantage Russia has, they can focus all their weaponry at Ukraine without any risk that their under-defended flanks are at risk.

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## Jagdflieger (May 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Jagdflieger,
> 
> Did you mean the Alma Ata Protocols?....


No, please see below:

Maybe different print medias different names/titles – but it is known and also termed as Declaration – see your own forwarded link and cited below.

The founding members of CIF were, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine on 8th​ December 1991 (The Minsk Declaration and Agreement) and invited other known countries on 21.December 1991. The signatories of the CIF on 21.12.1911 (including Ukraine) guaranteed towards the territorial integrity and the inviolability of existing borders and *neutrality* within the Commonwealth right down to a *joint command of the military*. – see below.

The first major issue was already before 2010. After becoming president in 2010, Viktor Yanukovych amended Ukraine's foreign policy doctrine, *removing* a clause about Ukraine's NATO membership aspirations. Therefore Ukraine's former government had already rejected/abandoned its commitment to maintain neutrality – a clear breach of the Alma Ata Declaration by Ukraine (Article 6) having occurred already before 2010.

As such and most likely, Putin sees himself free to support separatist movements in Donbass and Luhansk and to occupy Crimea in 2014. Ukraine retracting its membership to the CIF in 2018 whilst maintaining and vastly increasing its relationship with NATO…..well….24th​ February 2022.

_TEXT OF ALMA ATA DECLARATION - I.L.M. Page 148
(Declaring: Cooperation among parties of the Commonwealth of Independent States based upon the principle of equality; unified command of military forces and joint control over nuclear weapons; extinction of the U.S.S.R.)Done at Alma Ata on 21 December 1991

*Joint command of the military* and nuclear weapons; social security of soldiers, assigning command of the armed forces to Marshal E.I. Shaposhnikov.
The High Contracting Parties acknowledge and respect each other's territorial integrity and the *inviolability of existing borders within the Commonwealth*.
The Parties will respect each other's efforts to achieve the status of a nuclear-free zone and a* neutral *State.
The States members of the Commonwealth will maintain, and retain under joint command, a common military and _*strategic space*

As I had mentioned earlier, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia were never CIS members and as such, free to decide onto whatever.

And thanks for the link, better then the excerpt I had.

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## ThomasP (May 25, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger.

My apologies, I missed the usage of the term Declaration.

P.S. I made two typos in my post#6,924 - the 5s should have been 6s. Made the correction.

P.S.S. My point is that Ukraine never ratified the Charter, including the joint military part of it. They did ratify some of the other Articles.


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## J_P_C (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One advantage of the T-62 is the lack of the T-72’s auto loader and carrousel of ammunition under floor ready to pop off the turret. Though the Russians will have a marked deficit in trained MBT loaders, having not needed them for decades.



nope - ammunition in T-62 is stored in unprotected bins on the sides of turret and hull, there is no advantage over T-72 clones in the crew safety area - difference will be 4 killed instead 3 after armour penetration. Significant difference is in armour protection level - T62 is protected with solid steel walls without any composite inserts like T72 clones has (at least from front side) it means all ukrainian's AT means most probable will work from any possible attack direction.

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## buffnut453 (May 25, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, please see below:
> 
> Maybe different print medias different names/titles – but it is known and also termed as Declaration – see your own forwarded link and cited below.
> 
> ...



I know you're trying to put forward Putin's perspective here but the simple fact that the Alma-Ata Protocols involved join command of military forces clearly means that the CIS members were far from being neutral. 

Likewise, Putin literally tore up the Protocols by his actions to grab portions of CIS member national territory for Russia. Existing borders are either inviolable or they're not. Again, there is zero justification for what Putin is doing, other than the whiny-bitch "You're not doing what I want you to do so I'm going to throw my toys out of the cot." Sadly, his "toys" involve throwing the Russian military against civilian targets in Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (May 25, 2022)

Interesting article about ongoing efforts to recover bodies of Russian soldiers in Ukraine:









Ukraine war: Bodies of dead Russian soldiers abandoned near Kyiv


Shallow graves are discovered on the outskirts of the capital, weeks after Russia's attempted advance.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> ...difference will be 4 killed instead 3 after armour penetration.


What are your thoughts on the loader position? The Russians will need to find a fourth man. It takes time to train that chap well, and the T-62's single piece ammunition isn't a lightweight. Perhaps they'll follow the original T-34 design and make the commander also the loader?


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## J_P_C (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What are your thoughts on the loader position? The Russians will need to find a fourth man. It takes time to train that chap well, and the T-62's single piece ammunition isn't a lightweight. Perhaps they'll follow the original T-34 design and make the commander also the loader?


it has nothing common with ergonomy for sure, in reality only 4 rounds located on the wall of turret are within reach, remaining ammunition is close to impossible to use in quick manner, stated theoretical fire rate for this tank is 4 rounds per minute but i think it is limited only to first 4 shoots after this it will be hopelessly slow, and you are right 115mm round is bloody heavy especially for the cramped tank interrior manipulation. I think this features of T62 were main reason why Soviets have push with autoloader design

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> 115mm round is bloody heavy especially for the cramped tank interrior manipulation.


If crew ergos are a factor perhaps the Russians need to bring some of their casemate AFVs out of storage. The SU-100 is still operational in some countries.

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## Jagdflieger (May 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Jagdflieger.
> 
> My apologies, I missed the usage of the term Declaration.
> 
> ...


No problem,

What makes you say that Ukraine did not sign on 8th of December 1991? the only one who did not sign, but did so in 1993, was Georgia.





Resources for The creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) - Geopolitical upheavals in Europe after 1989 - CVCE Website


This subject file looks at the events that marked the end of the 20th century in Europe. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union put an end to the Cold War and its divisions, which dated back to the Second World War. The political and economic reforms adopted in the...



www.cvce.eu




The issue pertaining nuclear weapons was also signed by Ukraine - but took years to take place





Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons, and Security Assurances at a Glance | Arms Control Association







www.armscontrol.org





_On 8 December 1991, in Minsk, the Republics of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine *sign* the Treaty establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). On 21 December, eight other former Federated Soviet Republics also *sign *the Treaty of Minsk in Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, thus joining the founding members of the CIS._

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## J_P_C (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If crew ergos are a factor perhaps the Russians need to bring some of their casemate AFVs out of storage. The SU-100 is still operational in some countries.
> 
> View attachment 670725


crew ergonomy is one of key factors for tank combat effectiveness. And yes that was my thought - what will be next after T62, Su100 seems to equally "good" steel grave for its crew...

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## Dimlee (May 25, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, please see below:
> 
> Maybe different print medias different names/titles – but it is known and also termed as Declaration – see your own forwarded link and cited below.
> 
> ...


Alma Ata Declaration (1991) :
Did *not* request to maintain the neutrality of the countries involved.
Did *not* create the Joint Command of the military forces of the countries involved.
Declared that the aspirations toward the neutral and non-nuclear status will be respected. ("Neutrality" was mentioned just once and only within this context).
Declared that Joint Command of the* strategic* (read - *nuclear*) forces is retained and that joint control on nuclear weapons is retained.
This is the official text of the Declaration published from the CIS registry:





Идет перенаправление...







cis.minsk.by





Conclusions:
1. Your interpretation of the Declaration is incorrect.
2. Your accusations about Ukraine breaking any obligations are unfounded.

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## Jagdflieger (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I know you're trying to put forward Putin's perspective here but the simple fact that the Alma-Ata Protocols involved join command of military forces clearly means that the CIS members were far from being neutral.


If one of the signatories such as the Ukraine forms a policy doctrine in 2006 which beholds a clause - namely the aspiration to join NATO - then this is a breach towards the neutrality act
regarding the CIS members and its signatories. Which in this case beholds not just a breach towards Russia but also Belarus and the remaining CIS members.

Anyway two smart people once said, war is the continuation of diplomacy via other means, and the other one said: diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means
So it is a continuous cycle with varying time lines. Unfortunately the timeline for diplomacy wasn't really pursued by any party.

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## Dimlee (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Some more info about the claimed Botashev shoot down. If this is accurate, he seems to have been a pretty dangerous operator (and not in a good way). The possibility of mercenary pilots of the Wagner Group is also interesting, not least because any combat aircraft they fly can only come from the Russian military:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


In the meantime, they just adopted the amendments to the military service law raising the maximum age of the "contracted" military personnel from 40 to 65 y.o.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> In the meantime, they just adopted the amendments to the military service law raising the maximum age of the "contracted" military personnel from 40 to 65 y.o.



Matching the age of the gear they're using.

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## Dimlee (May 25, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> this is a breach towards the neutrality act
> regarding the CIS members and its signatories. Which in this case beholds not just a breach towards Russia but also Belarus and the remaining CIS members.


There was NO neutrality act. Please read the text of the Declaration.

For your information: several CIS members formed a "security treaty" organisation several months after Alma Ata Declaration.








Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




Did they, including Russian Federation, breach the "neutrality act"? Ah, wait, there was no such pact at all...

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## Jagdflieger (May 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Conclusions:
> 1. Your interpretation of the Declaration is incorrect.


It is not my interpretation but simply the reading of the articles beheld in the treaty and the FACT that it was signed by all except Georgia signing in 1993

_The signatories of the CIF on 21.12.1991 (including Ukraine) guaranteed towards the territorial integrity and the inviolability of existing borders and *neutrality* within the Commonwealth right down to a *joint command of the military*._

What does the CSTO of 2002 or it's earliest forerunner the CST 1994 have to do with the CIF signed in 1991?


Dimlee said:


> 2. Your accusations about Ukraine breaking any obligations are unfounded.


Certainly not - the commitments/obligations are black on white - and Ukraine broke them in 2006. It simply did not come to any military action by Putin because of diplomatic talks and from 2010-2014 Ukraine was ruled by a president that had Putin's trust.
If it appeases you, one can also say that from 2010-2014 Ukraine was ruled by a men who was willing to sell out the Ukraine to Putin.

Okay, lets go back to topic, who destroyed how many of what today - after all this will be the deciding factor - right?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 25, 2022)

Was there a clause in Alma-Ata allowing for the violation of the UN proscription of aggressive warfare in case neutrality was abandoned? Was there a clause in Alma-Ata that permitted the seizure of one member's territory by another member?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 25, 2022)

Sigh…

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## buffnut453 (May 25, 2022)

This is something of a long read but I think it's worth the effort. It's from Meduza, a Russian language news outlet based in Latvia. It's left-of-centre but is pretty highly rated. It was shared by a work colleague who tracks all things Russia pretty closely:

*'Almost nobody is happy with Putin' Meduza's sources say a new wave of pessimism in the Kremlin has Russia's hawks demanding more brutality in Ukraine while others scout for presidential successors*
_2:59 pm, May 24, 2022
Source: __Meduza_

_As of today, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been underway for exactly three months. Throughout Moscow's "special military operation," representatives of the Russian elite have repeatedly changed their positions on the war in Ukraine and the crisis at home. Moderate optimism replaced what was initially extreme pessimism, only to be ousted by a wave of moderate pessimism. Sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that these moods have shifted again, as more elites express dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin directly. Frustration with the president, moreover, is rising among both supporters and opponents of the invasion.

In the three months since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the general mood among the elites in Moscow has flipped more than once. In early March, insiders told Meduza that President Putin's decision to go to war horrified most Kremlin and ministerial officials, who feared that Western sanctions would ruin their careers and maybe even their lives. Shortly thereafter, however, a "patriotic surge" took hold. By April, several prominent figures were calling publicly to fight "to the bitter end."

Now, three months into the war, pessimism is staging a comeback. "It won't be possible to live like before. Any talk of development is out the window. But life goes on. There are gray imports. There's trade with China and India," said a source close to the prime minister's cabinet.

At the same time, officials in the Kremlin still see no realistic scenario in which President Putin could end the hostilities in Ukraine and retain his high approval rating in Russia. As Meduza reported previously, the administration's domestic policy team has been brainstorming strategies to "withdraw with dignity" since just a few weeks into the invasion, but officials have yet to come up with anything.

"There's probably almost nobody who's happy with Putin. Businesspeople and many cabinet members are unhappy that the president started this war without thinking through the scale of the sanctions. Normal life under these sanctions is impossible. The 'hawks' are mad about the pace of the 'special operation'; they think more decisive action is possible."

This is how a source close to the Kremlin described the mood among Russian elites. Another two sources with knowledge of the Putin administration's operations confirmed this analysis, as did two more individuals with ties to the prime minister's cabinet.

Sources close to the Kremlin said the "hawkish" position (most popular among Russia's security elites) is simple: "They figure, since we're entangled there already, there's no going soft now. We need to go even harder." This would entail a broad mobilization of reservists, and "playing to win," ideally by capturing Kyiv itself.

The Kremlin, however, isn't ready to declare a full mobilization. In early April, citing the results of closed sociological studies, sources with knowledge of the Putin administration's domestic policy work told Meduza that even the Russians who say they support the "special operation" in Ukraine are reluctant either to volunteer for the fight or to send their own relatives to the frontlines.

At the same time, Russia's major businesspeople and most of the "civilian" state officials are also unhappy with the president's actions and criticize him for failing to take real steps toward peace with Ukraine. Meanwhile, economic difficulties mount by the day.

"The problems are already visible, and they'll be raining down from all sides by the middle of the summer: transportation, medicine, even agriculture. There was just nobody thinking about the scale [of the sanctions]," a source close to the government told Meduza, adding that no one in the Kremlin calculated the consequences of European countries completely boycotting Russian oil and gas. While such a boycott is still being discussed in the EU, Meduza's sources say the president and his more "militant" advisers nevertheless dismiss the prospect as an empty threat by the West.

Vladimir Putin simply doesn't want to think about the economic difficulties that are obvious to most officials, and he's especially unwilling to link these problems to the war in Ukraine, two sources with ties to the Kremlin told Meduza.

The president has expressed this perspective publicly, as well. For example, when Anton Alikhanov met with Putin on May 20, the Kaliningrad governor described the decline in the region's construction industry, saying, "After the start of the special military operation, our logistics links were temporarily disrupted. We still managed to buy a lot abroad, and we've been focused on transit through neighboring states' territories. It took us some time to adapt the supply chain to the new realities, but it's done now."

In response, Putin repeatedly told the governor not to blame the region's supply problems on the war: "There's no need in this case to link this to our special military operation. You had a recession back in 2020 and 2021, too, and there was a noticeable decline in construction. So, the military operation in the Donbas has absolutely nothing to do with this."

Meduza's sources with ties to the Kremlin and the federal government say talk about "the future after Putin" is increasingly common among Russia's elites. "It's not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they're plotting a conspiracy, but there's an understanding (or a wish) that he won't be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future," explained one individual. "The president screwed up, but he might still fix everything later, coming to some agreement [with Ukraine and the West]," added another source, admitting that some Kremlin officials are quietly discussing Putin's potential successors. (The list supposedly includes Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, National Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, and First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko.)

Kiriyenko is reportedly in regular contact with Putin about the economy and the Donbas (where the president recently made him the administration's point man). Meduza's sources offer conflicting information, however, about Kiriyenko's own plans: some say he aspires at least to the office of prime minister, while others guess that his current activity is intended to demonstrate his effectiveness inside the Kremlin.

Among Meduza's sources, the consensus view is that Kiriyenko, like National Guard director Viktor Zolotov, for example, belongs to Putin's "inner circle." "[This group] now includes those participating in the operation — the ones leading the troops and dealing with the Donbas. The president is at war. These are the people who can cross the 'red line,' meaning they can wake the president with a phone call," said one source.

Even when discussing Kiriyenko and Putin's other hypothetical successors, Meduza's sources said Russia's elites recognize that only a major health issue could drive the president from office. As a result, dissatisfaction among senior officials amounts to little but idle conversations in private. As one source with ties to the government put it: "People are ed but they're still at their jobs, helping to put the country on a war footing."

For instance, the Kremlin hasn't abandoned the idea of annexing more of Ukraine by staging referendums in the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" and in the Kherson region, which Russian troops currently occupy. The situation at the frontlines will determine when these plebiscites can go ahead. Currently, the soonest voting could realistically take place is on September 11, when Russia holds its own local and regional elections. Meduza's sources say Georgia's breakaway Republic of South Ossetia might synchronize its own referendum on joining Russia for September, as well. Also, South Ossetian officials have announced a vote on July 17, but two sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that the plebiscite's date might be moved. (Anatoly Bibilov, South Ossetia's former president who recently lost a reelection bid, is the one who set the July 17 date.)

The same sources didn't rule out that Belarus might also hold a September plebiscite on the long-discussed question of "merging" with Russia. "But that depends on steamrolling [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko, who resists this scenario in every way possible," explained one individual.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Meduza's questions for this article.

Text by Andrey Pertsev_

_Translation by Kevin Rothrock_

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Sources close to the Kremlin said the "hawkish" position (most popular among Russia's security elites) is simple: "They figure, since we're entangled there already, there's no going soft now. We need to go even harder." This would entail a broad mobilization of reservists, and "playing to win," ideally by capturing Kyiv itself._


This would be a bloodbath of Russian dead, with tens of thousands of wounded and corpses returning to Russia. Sending partially trained reservists into Ukraine will be a repeat of the Battle of Tannenberg, with the Russians getting wiped off the map and leading eventually to revolution.

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## Jagdflieger (May 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Was there a clause in Alma-Ata allowing for the violation of the UN proscription of aggressive warfare in case neutrality was abandoned? Was there a clause in Alma-Ata that permitted the seizure of one member's territory by another member?


The CIF had a council appointed to regulate matters concerning this treaty.
The normal way would be that the council decides upon which action is appropriate or is decided upon to deal with a signatory not fulfilling a treaty or being in violation with a or several articles.
See presently NATO's issue with Turkey - I don't believe that there is a clause regarding aggressive NATO action towards Turkey, but something will definitely be decided by the NATO council in that matter. Especially in a hypothetical scenario that Turkey would be in violation of it's NATO treaty by forwarding a clause in it's foreign policy doctrine of eying with a CSTO membership


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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> For your information: several CIS members formed...





Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...a clause in Alma-Ata allowing for the violation....





Jagdflieger said:


> ....simply the reading of the articles.....

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> View attachment 670730



Kind of hard to get through something when some feel that their “interpretation” is black and white, while others is just opinion. Hence why these discussions are often like listening to a broken record.

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

Looks like it's real, the T-62 rolls again.



Too bad the phone camera operator suffered from VVS.

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## vikingBerserker (May 25, 2022)

I'm excited about the T-62 coming back, the Ukrainian farmers need more scrap metal.

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## GrauGeist (May 25, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I'm excited about the T-62 coming back, the Ukrainian farmers need more scrap metal.


They're there, just waiting...

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

This is Putin sending young men to their deaths in shoddy equipment... Like with the Kursk, Russian mothers will remember this.


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## Dimlee (May 25, 2022)

CAESAR on the Eastern Front. Merci beaucoup

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## buffnut453 (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like it's real, the T-62 rolls again.
> 
> 
> 
> Too bad the phone camera operator suffered from VVS.




I think these T-62s will simply be thrown at the separatist rebels in the Donbas and elsewhere as a means of strengthening their ability to defend themselves, According to the video, at least a couple of T-62s were seen in Melitopol which is well within the Russian occupied region. Just my two penn'orth....which probably isn't worth that much.

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I think these T-62s will simply be thrown at the separatist rebels in the Donbas


I wonder outside of their top level leaders (those who todie up to Putin) what these separatist rebels think, now that they're seeing ethnic Russians being shelled, bombed and shot by the Russian military. They wanted to be independent from Ukraine, but I'm not sure they signed up for the complete destruction of the Donbas region.


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## Dimlee (May 25, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> It is not my interpretation but simply the reading of the articles beheld in the treaty and the FACT that it was signed by all except Georgia signing in 1993
> 
> _The signatories of the CIF on 21.12.1991 (including Ukraine) guaranteed towards the territorial integrity and the inviolability of existing borders and *neutrality* within the Commonwealth right down to a *joint command of the military*._
> 
> ...


I posted the link to the official text of the Alma Ata Declaration in Russian. Since this is my native language, I can assure you that your interpretation is wrong. Let me try once again. You can use your favourite translator.





Идет перенаправление...







cis.minsk.by




It is crystal clear: there were no neutrality obligations and no joint military command (besides the command of the nuclear forces). Therefore, all further speculations and accusations against Ukraine do not make sense.

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## Glider (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm confused. If he was retired, why was he flying an Su-25 over Ukraine? If he wasn't retired, why the hell was a Major General flying combat ops?
> 
> There's something distinctly hokey about this.


There was a good article about him in the Times today. Apparently he had a record of flying without permission and it got him dismissed when he took over the controls of an Su27 and crashed it when trying to do some aerobatics.

This wasn't the first time as he was suspended from flying when he took the Su27 for doing something similar about 12 months earlier.

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## Glider (May 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the T-62s being brought up:
> 
> IMO if the Russians are smart they will send in their older tanks instead of their best front line stuff. If it is as it appears (ie that even the latest Russian tanks are very vulnerable to the current MANPATS) then a T-62M will do the job just as well as a T-72M - at least in terms of protecting the crew. Plus this way the Russians can maintain their latest stuff for the possibility of war with the US/NATO, and/or prepare them for a full scale war with Ukraine and subsequent invasion with greater force than they have used so far.


I think there is one problem with this theory. A good number of the AT weapons given to Ukraine were obsolete and the T72 was well protected against them. Here I am thinking of the RPG7 and M72 ( a weapon one Royal Marine described to me as being almost better than nothing against a tank). These would be far more effective against a T62.

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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

Glider said:


> I think there is one problem with this theory. A good number of the AT weapons given to Ukraine were obsolete and the T72 was well protected against them. Here I am thinking of the RPG7 and M72 ( a weapon one Royal Marine described to me as being almost better than nothing against a tank). These would be far more effective against a T62.


I wonder if there's a few thousand Carl Gustaf 8.4cm recoilless rifles in storage somewhere. It might be useful against the T-62 and other AFVs and unlike the NLAW and Javelin the Gustav is reuseable.









Carl Gustaf 8.4 cm recoilless rifle - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Glider (May 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if there's a few thousand Carl Gustaf 8.4cm recoilless rifles in storage somewhere. It might be useful against the T-62 and other AFVs and unlike the NLAW and Javelin the Gustav is reuseable.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


exactly what I was thinking


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## SaparotRob (May 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> CAESAR on the Eastern Front. Merci beaucoup



posted in error.


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## at6 (May 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting article about ongoing efforts to recover bodies of Russian soldiers in Ukraine:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Leave them there to rot until the war ends. No use wasting man power on them.


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## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

at6 said:


> Leave them there to rot until the war ends. No use wasting man power on them.


No. Ship them home. Let the Russian people know what happened to their sons, fathers and brothers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> The CIF had a council appointed to regulate matters concerning this treaty.
> The normal way would be that the council decides upon which action is appropriate or is decided upon to deal with a signatory not fulfilling a treaty or being in violation with a or several articles.
> See presently NATO's issue with Turkey - I don't believe that there is a clause regarding aggressive NATO action towards Turkey, but something will definitely be decided by the NATO council in that matter. Especially in a hypothetical scenario that Turkey would be in violation of it's NATO treaty by forwarding a clause in it's foreign policy doctrine of eying with a CSTO membership



I asked exactly nothing about NATO. If you don't know the answers to my questions, just say so.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Even when discussing Kiriyenko and Putin's other hypothetical successors, Meduza's sources said Russia's elites recognize that only a major health issue could drive the president from office.
> _



What a pregnant phrase this could be.


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## buffnut453 (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What a pregnant phrase this could be.



Polonium sandwich anyone?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Polonium sandwich anyone?



The world should be so lucky. I wonder if he's started sleeping in a different place each night yet?


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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I asked exactly nothing about NATO. If you don't know the answers to my questions, just say so.


In the words of W.C. Fields:
"If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit"

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## nuuumannn (May 26, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Yeah but do not call it The Australia.



Answers to this statement meant in jest of course...

"Nah, coz everyone calls it The Aussie or The Oz or simply Straya..."

Or

"Only when referring to the battlecruiser or other naval vessels with that name, but not as The HMAS Australia coz that doesn't make sense. The Her Majesty's Ship Australia, see, doesn't work."

Sorry guys, missing days at a time means anything I post is waaay behind the course...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The world should be so lucky. I wonder if he's started sleeping in a different place each night yet?


Beware of what you desire. The devil is in the details. 

What if Uncle Vlad get replaced with some of of those hawks that the Meduza report says and 

 buffnut453
shared up thread?

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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> ...but not as The HMAS Australia coz that doesn't make sense. The Her Majesty's Ship Australia, see, doesn't work."


Why?
Just because a ship holds the name Australia, doesn't necessarily implicate that it is an Australian ship. Could be a British vessel as well. So only the lettering HMAS would specify this.
So what would be the nuance between saying, the Her Majesty's Australian Ship "Australia" or the United States Ship "America"?
or the HMAS Australia and the USS America? after-all we are referring to a ships name and not a region or country.
How about: the Royal Australian Navy Ship "Australia" or my personal favorite: the RAN ship Australia?
Sorry, just couldn't let that one slip by


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## Dimlee (May 26, 2022)

Italian FH70 in action. Grazie mille!

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## Dimlee (May 26, 2022)

"Beside a disabled Russian tank lay a cardboard box apparently used for carrying supplies. On the box was an odd message for a unit in war: "Always believe something wonderful is about to happen."









A Doomed River Crossing Shows the Perils of Entrapment in the War’s East


Encirclement is a tactic used by both sides in the war between Russia and Ukraine, but it can carry big risks.




www.nytimes.com


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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In the words of W.C. Fields:
> "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit"


Obviously you and W.C. Fields must be very close friends


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## XBe02Drvr (May 26, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "Beside a disabled Russian tank lay a cardboard box apparently used for carrying supplies. On the box was an odd message for a unit in war: "Always believe something wonderful is about to happen."


Something wonderful = leaving this life for my next incarnation?

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## Dimlee (May 26, 2022)

About the helicopter supply of Mariupol.
"Flying two at a time and once four at a time, Ukrainian Mi-8 Hip helicopter crews braved dense Russian air defense and enemy aircraft concentrated in and around Mariupol to deliver desperately needed supplies and fresh troops to the defenders of the besieged Azovstal steel plant" .
"Of the 16 total helicopters involved, two were destroyed... Another helicopter was destroyed coming to the rescue of one of the downed Hips"









Inside Ukraine's Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol


With Ukrainian troops besieged in a massive steel plant and under constant fire from Russian forces, helicopter crews sprung into action.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

_Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday slammed former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger for suggesting earlier this week that Ukraine cede some territory to Russia in the name of peace.

In a Wednesday address, Zelensky said Kissinger “emerges from the deep past and says that a piece of Ukraine should be given to Russia” and that Kissinger’s “calendar is not 2022, but 1938” — a reference to the Munich Agreement, which allowed for Nazi Germany to annex land in western Czechoslovakia.

“Behind all these geopolitical speculations of those who advise Ukraine to give away something to Russia, ‘great geopoliticians’ are always unwilling to see ordinary people,” Zelensky said. “Millions of those who actually live in the territory they propose to exchange for the illusion of peace. You must always see people.”

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, the 98-year-old Kissinger said “negotiations on peace need to begin” between Moscow and Kyiv and that “ideally, the dividing line should return the status quo ante.”

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and fomented separatist movements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the regions independent before moving troops into Ukraine and launching a full-scale assault.

With Russia having at least temporarily scaled back its ambitions of seizing Kyiv, many believe Putin would at least want to secure control of some of the eastern regions before ending the war.

Zelensky on Wednesday said he would not heed to “those who are in a hurry for another meeting with the dictator,” in a reference to Putin._



https://thehill.com/news/3502032-zelensky-rips-kissinger-over-suggestion-ukraine-cede-territory-to-russia/

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## vikingBerserker (May 26, 2022)

Amazing how politicians are so ready to cede other people's land. I wonder if Kissinger is willing to cede his house and land to Russia too.

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## buffnut453 (May 26, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Beware of what you desire. The devil is in the details.
> 
> What if Uncle Vlad get replaced with some of of those hawks that the Meduza report says and
> 
> ...



Trust me, I know. The battle over who replaces him will be stacked with Putin Mini-Me characters, some of whom are likely to be worse than Vlad himself. That's what happens when you surround yourself with people who only think like you do. It really puts the prospects for lasting change in Russia at the "highly improbable" end of the spectrum.


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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

One lucky Russian tank here. Was he all alone, just driving down some dirt road without any infantry or other support? It looks like he's lost.

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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Obviously you and W.C. Fields must be very close friends


This is one case where you may be correct:
We both share the same views about people...


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Amazing how politicians are so ready to cede other people's land. I wonder if Kissinger is willing to cede his house and land to Russia too.



That's pretty much what I was thinking when I heard of Kissinger's comments. I doubt he'd sacrifice any part of America to mollify a hypothetical invader.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One lucky Russian tank here. Was he all alone, just driving down some dirt road without any infantry or other support? It looks like he's lost.




Right, at about 0:50 into the video the shot pulls back and we can see there's no friendly infantry within a few hundred meters even as the tank is barreling down a road that is closely invested with difficult wooded terrain. You can see that the tank fires a round to clear the woods at the intersection, only to be shot-at from the opposite side -- excellent tactics by the MANPATs team, it's a pity their shot went wide.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

_KYIV/SVITLODARSK, Ukraine, May 26 (Reuters) - Advancing Russian forces came closer to surrounding Ukrainian troops in the east, briefly seizing positions on the last highway out of a crucial pair of Ukrainian-held cities before being beaten back, a Ukrainian official said on Thursday.

Three months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has abandoned its assault on the capital Kyiv and is trying to consolidate control of the industrial eastern Donbas region, where it has backed a separatist revolt since 2014.

It has poured thousands of troops into its assault, attacking from three sides in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The fall of the two cities, which straddle the Siverskiy Donets river, would bring nearly the whole of Luhansk province under Russian control, a key Kremlin war aim.

"Russia has the advantage, but we are doing everything we can" in the battle in the area, said General Oleksiy Gromov, deputy chief of the main operations department of Ukraine's general staff.

Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Luhansk province, said around 50 Russian soldiers had reached the highway and "managed to gain a foothold for some time. They even set up some kind of checkpoint there".

"The checkpoint was broken, they were thrown back. That is to say, the Russian army does not control the route now, but they are shelling it," he said in an interview posted on social media. He hinted at further Ukrainian withdrawals, saying it was possible troops would leave "one settlement, maybe two. We need to win the war, not the battle".

"It is clear that our boys are slowly retreating to more fortified positions - we need to hold back this horde," he said.

Western military analysts see the battle for the two cities as a potential turning point in the war, now that Russia has defined its principal objective as capturing the east._









Russian forces edge closer to encircling Ukraine troops in east


Advancing Russian forces came closer to surrounding Ukrainian troops in the east, briefly seizing positions on the last highway out of a crucial pair of Ukrainian-held cities before being beaten back, a Ukrainian official said on Thursday.




www.reuters.com





I'm glad they're talking about retreat. Encirclement of the fighting forces would be a disaster, I think.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _It has poured thousands of troops into its assault, attacking from three sides in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The fall of the two cities, which straddle the Siverskiy Donets river, would bring nearly the whole of Luhansk province under Russian control, a key Kremlin war aim._


I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol. After that the Russians will push hard to close the salient and join forces between Lyman and Popasna - that would leave thousands of UAF troops to the mercy of the Russians.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol. After that the Russians will push hard to close the salient and join forces between Lyman and Popasna - that would leave thousands of UAF troops to the mercy of the Russians.
> 
> View attachment 670842


How tight could the encirclement be? So tight that the UAF couldn't escape?


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## RogerdeLluria (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol. After that the Russians will push hard to close the salient and join forces between Lyman and Popasna - that would leave thousands of UAF troops to the mercy of the Russians.
> 
> View attachment 670842


Looks like UAF is well aware of this. We will see who prevails.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Looks like UAF is well aware of this. We will see who prevails.



If there was ever a time for the Belorussian people to rise up in revolution against their Russian-linked oppressors now is it.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 26, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Amazing how politicians are so ready to cede other people's land. I wonder if Kissinger is willing to cede his house and land to Russia too.


Fortunately not all politicians are like this. Every day I like more this woman. Hope her point of view prevails.



Discussed security issues today @FolkochForsvar in Stockholm. I warned about premature calls for a ceasefire and peace. We cannot give anything to the aggressor that it didn't have before – or the aggression will sooner or later return. 1/4

No sign Russia has changed its calculus. I don't believe in goodwill by an outright aggressor and a cold-blooded war criminal. We must avoid a bad peace. A badly negotiated peace for Ukraine would mean a bad peace for us all. 2/4

We need to focus on pushing back the aggressor and drying up his war machine. What Ukraine needs today are weapons to fight back the aggressor and liberate its territories. We need to help Ukraine win. And we need to make a leap forward in our own defence. 3/4

What is victory? This is solely up to Ukraine to define. But we must help them to reach the best position for any negotiations with the aggressor. The Russian threat will not go away tomorrow. We mustn't get tired. After all, Ukrainians are not tired. 4/4

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## RogerdeLluria (May 26, 2022)

Looks a bit optimistic, but hope he is right.









Putin Headed for 'Devastating' Defeat in Ukraine War: Expert


"This would not be the first time Moscow has launched an ambitious military adventure...only to find itself outmatched and humiliated," Anders Aslund warned.




www.newsweek.com

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## SaparotRob (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol. After that the Russians will push hard to close the salient and join forces between Lyman and Popasna - that would leave thousands of UAF troops to the mercy of the Russians.
> 
> View attachment 670842


There’s a YouTube channel, Denys Davidov(?). He is an airline pilot for Ukrainian International, currently on hiatus. He gives multiple updates on Ukraine and seems credible. He says when things go wrong for Ukraine. 
He’s been commenting on this situation. He’s been saying they’re going to have to fall back when necessary. He comments on defensive measures. He doesn’t pretty the picture up and says it’s going to take a while. They’re not going to fight stupid. While Ukraine is building a NATO like army, the Russians are beating themselves senseless and weaker capturing hard to defend areas. I like his insights. He also sounds like my venerated elders.

Denys Davydov is the name.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There’s a YouTube channel, Denys Davidov(?). He is an airline pilot for Ukrainian International, currently on hiatus.


Interesting.

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## GTX (May 26, 2022)

Zelenskyy's home town fought off Russian invaders. Now they're preparing for Putin's revenge


The largest industrial city in Ukraine is known for producing iron ore, steel and fearless leaders. As Russian missiles begin to fall again, the birthplace of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is getting ready.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelenskyy's home town fought off Russian invaders. Now they're preparing for Putin's revenge
> 
> 
> The largest industrial city in Ukraine is known for producing iron ore, steel and fearless leaders. As Russian missiles begin to fall again, the birthplace of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is getting ready.
> ...


This is not the sort of positive global awareness and attention Putin had intended for Ukraine.... The world now sees them as a nation, a people. D'oh!

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## RogerdeLluria (May 26, 2022)

Have not found any reliable source yet.

Ukrainian sources claim that Russians have taken Lyman just a few hours ago. It is expected Ukrainians will fall back to the other side of the river (we all know Russians have grown aversion to river crossing)





On the bright side they also claim a Russian assault on Severodonetsk and Avdiivka was repelled by the UAF

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the Russians will accomplish their encirclement by early next week, cutting off and liquidating a sizable UAF force. The West's best weapons must be arriving in sizable quantities now, but it does not seem to be sufficient to save Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from becoming the next Mariupol.



That really depends on how the Ukrainian leadership reads and responds to the situation.

I'm not sure whether the twin cities can be saved, but if they cannot, withdrawal and bombarding occupying forces could both save Ukrainian soldiers and provide area-denial, given the longer ranges of the Ukr artillery coming in.

It sure doesn't look good, but a mobile defense supported by a baseline of arty would be where I'd look.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Looks a bit optimistic, but hope he is right.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I agree that this is optimistic. The make-or-break point hasn't been reached for Russia, but it seems a little closer for Ukraine.

I hope I'm wrong about this, and even if I am I think the Bear will have bitten off more than it can chew. Even a Russian military victory cannot stave off an expensive and bloody insurgency, especially after the war-crimes have been detailed. By actions at Bucha and elsewhere, the Russians have raised the black flag, and the Ukrainians know they are fighting for life.

That's a powerful motivator -- especially when compared to a half-trained conscript who only wants to be back home.

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## SaparotRob (May 26, 2022)

The UAF has a lot of new and non compatible equipment to organize and mobilize. I'm sure they are paying more attention to the logistics chain than the other guys.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is not the sort of positive global awareness and attention Putin had intended for Ukraine.... The world now sees them as a nation, a people. D'oh!



Writ large as well as small, one should always be aware of the Law of Unintended Consequences, for it will kneecap the mighty as well as the meek.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The UAF has a lot of new and non compatible equipment to organize and mobilize. I'm sure they are paying more attention to the logistics chain than the other guys.



If they're not doing this, they should be. Right now they're fighting for time to integrate the new weaponry, and that may demand retreats until they get the new stuff spooled up. But they'll be falling back onto supply lines if that is indeed what they choose to do, whereas the Russians ... well, "running out of gas" can be both literal and figurative as a turn of speech.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 26, 2022)

_WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.

The behind-the-scenes discussions, which are highly sensitive and have not been previously reported, do not put explicit geographic restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces. But the conversations have sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation, three U.S. officials and diplomatic sources said.

"We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them," said one of the three U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity._









Exclusive: U.S. and Ukraine discuss danger of escalation as new arms extend Kyiv's reach


As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.




www.reuters.com





This angers me. Nothing we are supplying to Ukraine can make for an existential threat to Russia, so why are we even opening this conversation? If you're giving weapons to a guy you know is in for the fight of his life, you accept that your own weapons may cause offense, or harm, or mayhem, or deaths. We Americans should not be attaching strings to any arms we lend or lease or donate. And we shouldn't be pussyfooting around about it.

At the very least, if DC wants to micromanage the war, they should grow a pair of balls and put American troops into the line. Absent that, they should STFU about how these weapons are used.

/rant (hopefully, I may return to this as circumstances warrant, god damn it.)

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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If there was ever a time for the Belorussian people to rise up in revolution against their Russian-linked oppressors now is it.


Since Belorussian people don't have tanks - I would assume that any attempt towards "revolution" would be squashed by Belarusian and Russian tanks. Just like the Hungarian Uprising of 1956. Especially by Russian troops since they are already in Belarus and the Kremlin will not be willing to give up onto the strategic Suwalki corridor/gap.

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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If they're not doing this, they should be. Right now they're fighting for time to integrate the new weaponry, and that may demand retreats until they get the new stuff spooled up. But they'll be falling back onto supply lines if that is indeed what they choose to do, whereas the Russians ... well, "running out of gas" can be both literal and figurative as a turn of speech.


What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
NATO has decided just a couple of days ago not to supply e.g. tanks, MLRS and aircraft.


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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - As the United States and its allies provide Ukraine with increasingly sophisticated arms, Washington has held discussions with Kyiv about the danger of escalation if it strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. and diplomatic officials tell Reuters.
> 
> The behind-the-scenes discussions, which are highly sensitive and have not been previously reported, do not put explicit geographic restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukrainian forces. But the conversations have sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation, three U.S. officials and diplomatic sources said.
> 
> ...


I don't think Ukraine has any interest in attacking Russia proper - their sole aim is to get rid of the invaders and reclaim their land.

I can see them perhaps hitting a supply depot or a command center near the border, but it's highly unlikely they'll target anything further inland.

I suspect the diplomats are just making legal noise that'll be overheard by Putler, sort of a disclaimer of sorts.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
> NATO has decided just a couple of days ago not to supply e.g. tanks, MLRS and aircraft.


I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.

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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.


Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept anything less than Russia leaving Ukrainian soil. 
The only way they'll lose the east, is if Russia is able to completely over run the nation and kill every last combatant.

As far as tanks being sent to Ukraine, the Czech Republic sent five T-72s and five BVP-1 AFVs.
Poland sent over two hundred T-72M1 tanks along with Soviet era self-propelled howitzers and Grad rocket launchers.

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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.


Presently it does look that way


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## wlewisiii (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think Ukraine is going to lose the east.


Only if they lose everything. Ukraine will not stop fighting till then. 

This war will end when Putin does, most likely by whatever disease he obviously has. I believe it's terminal in the short term as well since only that gives a reason for him to push a war that they weren't ready for to regain an empire that doesn't want them. At that point the Russians will pull back for 10 to 20 years before the next attempt to take on NATO and regain the Empire. Even the hawks would understand that.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept anything less than Russia leaving Ukrainian soil.


Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.


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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.


That would be very optimistic - taking the existing Russian military and economic losses into account. IMO he will continue towards his ultimate goal - Kiev.
In the meantime he will wait for NATO and Ukraine to come up with "peace-talks" proposals.


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## Greg Boeser (May 26, 2022)

Don't you mean Paris?

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## Jagdflieger (May 26, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Don't you mean Paris?


No, if at all the Baltic republics are far more appealing to him.


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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Everyone has been calling for a ceasefire since the first week of March.

But in order for a ceasefire to work, both sides need to agree. Early on, Zelensky did consider concessions but Putin would not hold a talk - now, Zelensky has made it absolutely clear that it's all or nothing. There will be no concessions.

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Everyone has been calling for a ceasefire since the first week of March.
> 
> But in order for a ceasefire to work, both sides need to agree. Early on, Zelensky did consider concessions but Putin would not hold a talk - now, Zelensky has made it absolutely clear that it's all or nothing. There will be no concessions.


If Putin calls a unilateral ceasefire, and if the West wants a ceasefire, they’ll turn off the weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky will have no choice.

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## GrauGeist (May 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Putin calls a unilateral ceasefire, and if the West wants a ceasefire, they’ll turn off the weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky will have no choice.


Zelensky will keep going no matter what.

But the ones calling for a ceasefire are mostly noisemakers anyway.

The rational ones in charge know that if we lose Ukraine, then Russia is encouraged to make another excuse to "protect an ethnic Russian population" in another country.

It's not a matter of "if" but "when" and where.

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## Greg Boeser (May 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> No, if at all the Baltic republics are far more appealing to him.


You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?

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## Admiral Beez (May 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But the ones calling for a ceasefire are mostly noisemakers anyway.


They‘ll quieten down when Ukraine begins taking back more territory not previously abandoned by the Russians. Kharkiv’s rescue was a good sign. Everyone wants to back an underdog who’s successful. The Ukrainians now have the better weapons, training, intel and morale. It’s now time for that to bear fruit.

If Ukraine wants to retake the East and Crimea, at some point, once there are sufficent weapons and kit to go around, Zelensky is going to have to call up all male citizens aged 18 and up to fight. When Israel is attacked, everyone, man and women are soliders.


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## nuuumannn (May 26, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Sorry, just couldn't let that one slip by





Shuddap mate, I'm watching the footie...

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> What "new weaponry" aside from some artillery equipment, small arms, munition, ATGM's/Manpads and some APC's?
> NATO has decided just a couple of days ago not to supply e.g. tanks, MLRS and aircraft.



New weaponry is exactly stuff like the 777s and other guns coming in from other countries. Couple of weeks to pull crews off for cross-training, and I bet setting up logistics for the new ammo and such requires a little time too. I don't think it's as simple as "here's a gun, now shoot it".

Granted that small arms are easily transferable, but even APCs require a supply chain that Ukraine may not have in place.

It stands to reason that integrating this new (to them) stuff is not going to get a _Star Trek_ matter-transporter solution. And that means that they are right now fighting for time, to get sufficient numbers to the front lines.

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## gumbyk (May 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> New weaponry is exactly stuff like the 777s and other guns coming in from other countries. Couple of weeks to pull crews off for cross-training, and I bet setting up logistics for the new ammo and such requires a little time too. I don't think t's as simple as "here's a gun, now shoot it".
> 
> Granted that small arms are easily transferable, but even APCs require a supply chain that Ukraine may not have in place.
> 
> It stands to reason that integrating this new (to them) stuff is not going to get a _Star Trek_ matter-transporter solution. And that means that they are right now fighting for time, to get sufficient numbers to the front lines.


New Zealand is sending troops up there to train Ukrainians on the artillery. Knowing our Government, they won't be going in-country, but it is likely going to be done somewhere like Poland. It takes away another target for the Russians.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I don't think Ukraine has any interest in attacking Russia proper - their sole aim is to get rid of the invaders and reclaim their land.
> 
> I can see them perhaps hitting a supply depot or a command center near the border, but it's highly unlikely they'll target anything further inland.
> 
> I suspect the diplomats are just making legal noise that'll be overheard by Putler, sort of a disclaimer of sorts.



I hope you're right that this is just legal noise. I hope these weapons are put to use most effectively no matter what side of the border the rounds land on, and I don't think us Americans ought to be telling the Ukrainians how to use these weapons. That only feeds Putin's narrative of proxy-war even further.

If we're to support them, give them what we can and will, but we should not be saying how these weapons should be deployed, imo.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Presently it does look that way



Sad to say, I agree.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Pragmatism will prevail. The West and US have already been nudging for an immediate ceasefire. My prediction is that Putin will soon take most of the Donbas, declare victory and stand down, calling for talks.



Calling for talks and getting them are two very different things. And who would blame Ukraine for refusing?

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## GrauGeist (May 27, 2022)

I agree, and the less conversation about what is given, the better.

Last month, the Czechs gave the Ukranians five tanks and nothing was said until after the fact. This is how it should be - keep everything on the downlow until after the dust settles.

If a nation wants to provide military hardware, fine, but don't make it a media event, because now the enemy knows...

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> New Zealand is sending troops up there to train Ukrainians on the artillery. Knowing our Government, they won't be going in-country, but it is likely going to be done somewhere like Poland. It takes away another target for the Russians.



Less crews shooting at the Russians in that timeframe, too, is my point. It's a necessary evil, and then it boils down to _was our aid quick enough to confront this offensive?_ It is to me a cause for concern. Forrest's "fustest with the mostest" should be remembered here as we ponder this, I think.

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## Jagdflieger (May 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?


No, not that extreme;
he envisions that the former Soviet republics come under direct Kremlin control, so that would focus him in regards to the West, onto the Baltic Republics, Ukraine, Moldavia and Belarus. The former Warsaw pact states need to be neutral (so that he can tell them what to do and how) Taking his age into account, he is a very visionary entrepreneur trying to set the path for the company goals and motto for the next CEO.
Maybe the new CEO? - Kadyrov has been referred to as "the son Putin never had" - he looks like a good humor guy and favors an open language - especially towards Poland
But first Putin needs to see if he can survive politically the "special military operation"


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## Admiral Beez (May 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Calling for talks and getting them are two very different things. And who would blame Ukraine for refusing?


The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.

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## wlewisiii (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.


You're presuming Vladimir Vladimirovich is a reasonable actor. He hasn't been yet; why would he start now?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.



Again, calling for peace doesn't mean jack if the guy whose land you're stealing refuses talks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

_
KYIV/POPASNA, Ukraine, May 27 (Reuters) - Russian forces in eastern Ukraine captured the centre of the railway hub town of Lyman and encircled most of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian officials acknowledged on Friday, as Kyiv's forces fell back in the face of Moscow's biggest advance for weeks.

Ukraine insisted its forces were still holding firm at new defensive lines in the eastern Donbas region, despite the apparent Russian advances on two of the major fronts there, battles that showed how momentum has shifted in recent days.


Moscow's separatist proxies said they were fully in control of Lyman, a railway hub that Russia has been attacking from the north in one of the main axes of its advance.

Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Russia had captured most of the town. But the defence ministry said forces were still holding out in northeastern and southwestern districts, blocking the Russians from launching an advance towards Sloviansk, a major city a half-hour drive further southwest.


Further east, Russian forces had encircled two-thirds of the city of Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said. The city is the easternmost major population centre still held by Ukraine in the Donbas, and Russia has been trying to trap Ukraine's main fighting force inside it and its twin city Lysychansk across the Siverskiy Donets river. Ninety percent of buildings in Sievierodonetsk were destroyed, Gaidai said.


Oleskiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in an interview overnight that Lyman had fallen, and that the well-organised Russian attack there showed that Moscow's military was improving its tactics and operations._









Ukraine says troops may retreat from eastern region as Russia advances


Ukraine said on Friday its forces may need to retreat from their last pocket of resistance in Luhansk to avoid being captured by Russian troops pressing an advance in the east that has shifted the momentum of the three-month-old war.




www.reuters.com

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## Jagdflieger (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The risk to Ukraine is that wherever the front line is at time of the ceasefire will become the new defacto border. A smart Russia will then reinforce the new border whilst publicly declaring their wish for peace. It would then likely be up to Ukraine to recommence hostilities - potentially against a changing global opinion.


I think that doesn't matter really.
Either Putin manages to take control of the entire Ukraine in whatever way, or if a ceasefire is arranged along whatever specific border and Putin still being in power in a couple of years - he will again attack Ukraine, latest upon them applying to become a NATO member. So Ukraine won't be the attacker anyway.

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## Admiral Beez (May 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russian forces in eastern Ukraine captured the centre of the railway hub town of Lyman and encircled most of Sievierodonetsk_


It's Mariupol again.

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## buffnut453 (May 27, 2022)

Interesting piece on the need for the Russian government to prop up the economy in order to overcome sanctions and keep funding the "special military operation" (Source: BBC). I expect inflation to go up like a helium balloon:
_
Russia requires substantial financial resources in order to continue supporting both its economy and its "special operation" in Ukraine, the country's finance minister says.

"Money for a special operation" means "huge resources" are needed, Anton Siluanov says at a university event.

Moscow officials insist on referring to the invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation."

He adds the Russian government will be spending 8 trillion roubles (£95.8bn) in the form of an economic stimulus package this year.

"Huge funds. We need these resources to support the economy, support our citizens."

The Russian economy has fared poorly in the last few months after being hammered by Western sanctions, with some forecasts projecting its GDP to shrink by between 8.5% and 15% this year._

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## Admiral Beez (May 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Again, calling for peace doesn't mean jack if the guy whose land you're stealing refuses talks.


It does if the guy refusing to talk is being bankrolled and armed by a fickle world, members of which may seize at the first opportunity to dial back aid. The West, with its short attention span won't keep on arming and financing Ukraine indefinitely. That's especially true if it increasingly appears that the West is backing a losing horse, the Donbas is fully taken and then annexed into Russia, making it a _fait accompli, _with the West treating it like Crimea in 2014.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It does if the guy refusing to talk is being bankrolled and armed by a fickle world, members of which may seize at the first opportunity to dial back aid. The West, with its short attention span won't keep on arming and financing Ukraine indefinitely. That's especially true if it increasingly appears that the West is backing a losing horse, the Donbas is fully taken and then annexed into Russia, making it a _fait accompli, _with the West treating it like Crimea in 2014.



While that's a possibility, I think the news of all the atrocities being committed, as well as Ukraine's predominance in the information war, mitigate this risk substantially.

And even if Ukraine to come to the table and cedes land for peace, that doesn't mean that an insurgency won't happen, which still means the bear has got his nose in the trap. With the sanctions biting deeper every day, that makes the prospect of an occupation look pretty bad for the Russians.

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## WARSPITER (May 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting piece on the need for the Russian government to prop up the economy in order to overcome sanctions and keep funding the "special military operation" (Source: BBC). I expect inflation to go up like a helium balloon:
> 
> _Russia requires substantial financial resources in order to continue supporting both its economy and its "special operation" in Ukraine, the country's finance minister says.
> 
> ...


For what was a 1.5 trillion dollar economy (before the invasion of Ukraine), that is a big chunk of GDP. 

It will be interesting to see how much sanctions affect Russian GDP over the next 12 months. If it does shrink by around ten percent that is
150 billion dollars plus the cost of economic stimulus plus the further drop when oil and gas sales drop.

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## Dimlee (May 27, 2022)

Minister of Defence Reznikov announced that Harpoon missiles will be supplied by three countries: Denmark, Netherlands, United Kingdom.








Украина получит Harpoon наземного базирования и "пасочки" к ним от трех стран – Резников


Украина получит Harpoon наземного базирования и "пасочки" к ним от Дании, Великобритании и Нидерландов, сообщил министр обороны Алексей Резников




news.liga.net

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## Dimlee (May 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Italian FH70 in action. Grazie mille!
> 
> View attachment 670817


And now on video.
Molto buona.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 27, 2022)

Interesting opinion article.



https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russia-putin-colonization-ukraine-chechnya/639428/

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## RogerdeLluria (May 27, 2022)

According to Ukrainian sources a MiG-29 shot down a Russian Su-35 in the Kherson region. It's surprising that Russia has not managed to suppress the UAF after 3 months of war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting opinion article.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russia-putin-colonization-ukraine-chechnya/639428/



It's an interesting article, but I'm struggling to see how foreign powers might get Russians to enforce their own Constitution. I also think that the concerns of the time about nuclear proliferation, extending to the dissemination of nuclear materials to terrorists, made the American policy of non-intervention more sensible than the article's author apparently thinks.

Decolonization is a laudable goal, but at what price?

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## GrauGeist (May 27, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> According to Ukrainian sources a MiG-29 shot down a Russian Su-35 in the Kherson region. It's surprising that Russia has not managed to suppress the UAF after 3 months of war.



That Su-35 is a textbook example of maintaining situational awareness.

"Hunting for ground attack aircraft" meant it was not at optimum altitude and I have not seen any statement so far, that would indicate they were operating with a wingman - total recipe for disaster.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That Su-35 is a textbook example of maintaining situational awareness.
> 
> "Hunting for ground attack aircraft" meant it was not at optimum altitude and I have not seen any statement so far, that would indicate they were operating with a wingman - total recipe for disaster.



I still believe that a major Russian mistake was not seizing air supremacy at the onset of their invasion. Yes, it would have been expensive (and perhaps they were/are husbanding their best aircraft to counter NATO intervention), but I think it would have been much cheaper than what we're currently seeing.

But being former Air Force, I may well be bringing my biases to the table.

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## GTX (May 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?


This has got nothing to do with Communism!!

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## GTX (May 27, 2022)

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov-sends-direct-threat-to-poland-in-chilling-video/news-story/fe9e5a558b735f71726666420b4a12da

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## GrauGeist (May 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> This has got nothing to do with Communism!!


As a former KGB officer in the Soviet Union, how else would Putin base his motives on?

Especially considering he claims that the fall of the Soviet Union is the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?





GrauGeist said:


> As a former KGB officer in the Soviet Union, how else would Putin base his motives on?
> 
> Especially considering he claims that the fall of the Soviet Union is the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century".





Actually Putin is more of a Czarist wanting the return of Imperial Russia rather than Soviet Communism. Nor does he want the Russian Empire to expand to the Atlantic ocean.

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## GTX (May 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Actually Putin is more of a Czarist wanting the return of Imperial Russia rather than Soviet Communism. Nor does he want the Russian Empire to expand to the Atlantic ocean.


Indeed


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## GTX (May 27, 2022)

Re-read this analysis that I posted back in February:









Here's why the West doesn't know how to fight Putin's Ukraine war


As globalisation rises in the West, Vladimir Putin is encouraging the return of the tribe. He sees the West's individualism as a weakness and his approach has set the world ablaze, writes Stan Grant.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> This has got nothing to do with Communism!!



Right. Putin is not a Communist, he's an ultranationalist kleptocrat.

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## Glider (May 27, 2022)

I am afraid that the West are not giving Ukraine what they really need right now and that is effective armour in numbers, aircraft and effective ECM. This is a huge country and Russia has numbers on its side. Russia tried to fight 'the European way' and got hammered. Now its reverting back to the 'Traditional Russian way' using its numbers taking a piece at a time while tying down Ukraine Army by threats from the North and attacking using effective artillery fire.
Only airpower has the ability to strike quickly, with considerable strength hundreds of miles from its base. Only airpower can cover more than one front at a time, in this case strike in the east while cover the North from an attack from Belarus. 

There is no doubt that the Russian Airforce doesn't have control of the air, but they don't need it. As long as they can stop the Ukraine Airforce from attacking their army and its artillery, they can pound their way to victory. That is the primary task of the Russian Airforce, and that is a task they seem to be able to do.

With suitable aircraft and ECM to give cover from the SAM shield that Russia is using, then the UAF will become the key to change the conflict, but without it, Russia will be able to wear Ukraine down and grind out a victory of sorts.

I do hope that I am wrong but this is my honest view of the current situation

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## swampyankee (May 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You are probably right. The revanchist/irredentist would only push to reclaim previously controlled territory. The Baltic states, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Alaska. Espousing a Greater Slavic Co-prosperity Sphere, you could throw in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria. Rumenia, Hungary and Germany just to round out the old Soviet Empire. But Puton is a true believer in a sort of Manifest Destiny of Russian led world communism. So why stop?


It need not have _anything_ to do with communism. Invading neighboring countries is a very old tradition, one that has been participated in by dictators, democracies, and everything else. It's sometimes cloaked in mottoes like _Liebensraum_ or Manifest Destiny or spreading civilization.

Putin's ideology need only be Russian nationalism. Russia didn't play all that nice before the bosheviks; just ask Poland.

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## Glider (May 27, 2022)

An interesting post.


Russia turns on Putin: Politicians demand 'immediate withdrawal' from Ukraine

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## wlewisiii (May 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> An interesting post.
> 
> 
> Russia turns on Putin: Politicians demand 'immediate withdrawal' from Ukraine


Just the Daily Fail. Might as well be an article in the National Enquirer.

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## Jagdflieger (May 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It does if the guy refusing to talk is being bankrolled and armed by a fickle world, members of which may seize at the first opportunity to dial back aid. The West, with its short attention span won't keep on arming and financing Ukraine indefinitely. That's especially true if it increasingly appears that the West is backing a losing horse, the Donbas is fully taken and then annexed into Russia, making it a _fait accompli, _with the West treating it like Crimea in 2014.


This whole issue simply reminds me towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. War and unrest for decades simply due to "it's mine, no it's ours".
And just as what USA is for Israel, China is/will be for Russia.
As long as whatever government in Moscow is regarded as neutral or even friendly - China will be their premium sponsor.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> This whole issue simply reminds me towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. War and unrest for decades simply due to "it's mine, no it's ours".
> And just as what USA is for Israel, China is/will be for Russia.
> As long as whatever government in Moscow is regarded as neutral or even friendly - China will be their premium sponsor.



I think EU and America both can and would support Ukraine -- albeit on a lower level than these emergency donations -- through a low-intensity conflict. Such a drawn-out timeline could also allow for training on Western weapons-systems such as Abrams, F-15, F-16, etc.

I think if the Russians want to actually win out here, they need to do it quickly, because quagmire is staring them in the face. That's why we're seeing this intense push into the Donbas, and why I wrote upthread that Ukrainian forces are essentially fighting for time. The longer this goes on, the worse are Russia's prospects, especially now that the sanctions are biting.

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## Jagdflieger (May 27, 2022)

I am not just referring to military aid - but the money needed to rebuild Ukraine so as to keep peace and "happiness" amongst it's population - otherwise there is going to be a change in government very soon. (one of the main reasons why Putin is focusing on "as time goes by") As such we are talking about $trillions not millions or billions.
Just to keep former East-Germany's, 17 million population happy and content has cost the German government $ 2 trillion Euro till today (in 30 years, including a trillion within the first 5 years) - and their infrastructure wasn't destroyed and neither half the population displaced.

E.g. The USA spends in total around 40-50 billion a year on foreign aid.!!! (out of which 10-15 billion are military aid). we are realistically talking about more then 2 trillion for Ukraine in the next 10 years.








US Foreign Aid per Country: Who Gets the Most - SpendMeNot


Looking for the most complete US foreign aid per country list on the web? You found it. ✅ We packed it together for you on a map!




spendmenot.com





_In 2009, China's total financial commitment to development aid reached a whopping $69.9 billion, two times that of the U.S. foreign aid in the same year.

China spent $354.3 billion over the 15-year period from 2000 to 2014 — a figure approaching the $394.6 billion spent by the U.S. over that same time frame. In fact, China now outspends the U.S. on an annual basis._

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am not just referring to military aid - but the money needed to rebuild Ukraine so as to keep peace and "happiness" amongst it's population - otherwise there is going to be a change in government very soon. (one of the main reasons why Putin is focusing on "as time goes by") As such we are talking about $trillions not millions or billions.
> Just to keep former East-Germany's, 17 million population happy and content has cost the German government $ 2 trillion Euro till today (in 30 years, including a trillion within the first 5 years) - and their infrastructure wasn't destroyed and neither half the population displaced.
> 
> E.g. The USA spends in total around 40-50 billion a year on foreign aid.!!! (out of which 10-15 billion are military aid). we are realistically talking about more then 2 trillion for Ukraine in the next 10 years.
> ...



I've long been of the opinion that we Americans should rationalize our foreign aid. But I also think that in the aftermath of this war, if Ukraine's defense is successful, I think you'll see a lot of public and private money coming in for the rebuild.

Russia may appreciate whatever aid China might throw its way immediately, and repent at leisure.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I still believe that a major Russian mistake was not seizing air supremacy at the onset of their invasion.


They tried, launching missile barrages to "blind" air defense radars and SAM sites, failing to achieve a "critical mass" of hits due to Ukrainian mobility and poor Russian intelligence. Their wild weasel tactics and kit were not up to snuff, making prosecuting emitters with air launched anti radiation missiles problematical. Their fire and forget type ARMS just couldn't seem to reliably find their targets.
And then their shortcomings in precision guided stand off munitions sentenced them to dumb bombing, leaving them susceptible to MANPADS and other low altitude weapons.

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## Jagdflieger (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> .... I think you'll see a lot of public and private money coming in for the rebuild....


As for my part, I am not aware of any foreign investor, be it public or private - ever having invested into a war-prone zone, additionally facing a political unsafe outlook.
Aside from receiving sums that don't really help the respective party, but simply ease the conscience of those providing funds.

Therefore Putin's "special military operation" isn't just simply about conquering Ukraine in total or parts of it, but to make sure that Ukraine via a military confrontation is and stays additionally devastated for as long as it doesn't oblige him, or doesn't provide for a Russia friendly government.

So sorry to say, so far Putin's policy looks extremely successful, but he certainly needs to control his military losses along the path he chose.
Undoubtedly IMO, Putin's initial expectations were certainly higher.

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## ThomasP (May 28, 2022)

There are some unusual things going on in the background here in the US.

Something I noticed early-on in the conflict is a similarity between the US midwest the Ukraine farmlands, farming towns, and the farmers themselves including their attitudes. The images of the farming communities could almost be from the 1950-1980 period here in Minnesota - except the Ukraine farmers have larger and better tractors than we had then.

The similarity I have noticed seems to be contributing to a feeling of empathy/sympathy and of being on the same team, or at least in the same league, among Minnesotans for the Ukrainians.

This may not sound like much, but over the last few weeks I have become aware of some amazing potential effects of these feelings.

There is for example, a privately held company company based here in Minnesota that is in the process of setting aside $100,000,000 for aid in rebuilding Ukraine (if they succeed in defeating the Russians) or for helping relocate Ukrainians that are displaced to other countries (including here).

Another example is a large construction company that operates and is based here in the Midwest. It has begun setting aside materials for building quality prefab houses. They are negotiating for production of long lead items and with appliance manufacturers for increased production of items needed for habitability (ie ovens, refrigerators, heaters, toilets, etc). The intent is to send them (free) to the Ukraine after the war to help in the rebuild.

Another large size company based here in the Midwest is starting to set aside upto 90% of its profits this year and next year, for use in rebuilding in Ukraine (I am talking about billions of dollars assuming the economy does not tank).

A worldwide logistics chain is working on long range planning for coordinating the shipping of material for rebuilding Ukraine - at the request of private companies who have expressed intent to help with the rebuilding and supply of materials.

All of the above is based on private initiatives and has not been initiated by the US government.

I have not seen such a large scale sameness of view in my lifetime, although some of the past disaster relief efforts had some of the same aspects. It reminds me of descriptions I have read about the attitude in much of the US population toward Great Britain during WWII.

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## Admiral Beez (May 28, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> There are some unusual things going on in the background here in the US.
> 
> Something I noticed early-on in the conflict is a similarity between the US midwest the Ukraine farmlands, farming towns, and the farmers themselves including their attitudes. The images of the farming communities could almost be from the 1950-1980 period here in Minnesota - except the Ukraine farmers have larger and better tractors than we had then.


Here in Canada we have tens of thousands of citizens of Ukrainian descent, including my wife. There’s a lot of sympathy and support for Ukraine here. These are people who look like us, live lives we can relate to.

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## Dimlee (May 28, 2022)

Another update from the Minister of Defence about the artillery.
M777, CAESAR, and FH70 are in operation. 
M109 SPHs have arrived. Modifications and the quantity are not disclosed.
About ammunition, he says:
_"in the last month and a half, for instance, we have received more NATO-standard artillery shells than there are Soviet shells available"_

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## Dimlee (May 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Here in Canada we have tens of thousands of citizens of Ukrainian descent, including my wife. There’s a lot of sympathy and support for Ukraine here. These are people who look like us, live lives we can relate to.











Ukrainian Canadians - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Dimlee (May 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> According to Ukrainian sources a MiG-29 shot down a Russian Su-35 in the Kherson region. It's surprising that Russia has not managed to suppress the UAF after 3 months of war.



According to their propaganda, they did it twice.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Here in Canada we have tens of thousands of citizens of Ukrainian descent, including my wife. There’s a lot of sympathy and support for Ukraine here. These are people who look like us, live lives we can relate to.



We have a lot here as well in the St. Louis area. My neighbors are Ukrainian that immigrated with their kids back in 2014 from Ukraine. They have a huge Ukrainian flag flying. 2 houses down from them is another Ukrainian family.

It’s actually a very international area, which I like culturally. We have a very large German, Polish, and Bosnian population. 8000 Bosnian refugees immigrated to St. Louis back during the war in the 90s. Lots of good restaurants have sprung up since.

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## FLYBOYJ (May 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> As for my part, I am not aware of any foreign investor, be it public or private - ever having invested into a war-prone zone, additionally facing a political unsafe outlook.


Unless you're an arms dealer!

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## Sid327 (May 28, 2022)

1] The Illusion of Russian and Chinese Aggression Around the World

2] Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren's latest plan to make herself more powerful

3] Scott Ritter - Is America truly helping Ukraine?


4] Overthrow: 100 Years of U.S. Meddling & Regime Change, from Iran to Nicaragua to Hawaii to Cuba

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## Sid327 (May 28, 2022)

Russian Ops in Ukraine: West Changes Tune as Russian Gains Continue


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> As for my part, I am not aware of any foreign investor, be it public or private - ever having invested into a war-prone zone, additionally facing a political unsafe outlook.



Look at Iraq -- American investments started flowing almost immediately, and now it's international ... and they ain't living in Beverly Hills.

If this is Putin's plan, he's dumber than he appears at first glance. Who will line up to help him rebuild Russia's economy? China? Sure, if he doesn't mind being a vassal.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> 1] The Illusion of Russian and Chinese Aggression Around the World
> 
> 2] Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren's latest plan to make herself more powerful
> 
> ...




I'll take "whataboutism" for a True Daily Double, Alex.

Also, you should be aware that when you cite Tucker Carlson, you are impeaching your credibility immediately. No one with half-a-brain listens to that idiot, and you shouldn't either.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'll take "whataboutism" for a True Daily Double, Alex.
> 
> *Also, you should be aware that when you cite Tucker Carlson, you are impeaching your credibility immediately. No one with half-a-brain listens to that idiot, and you shouldn't either.*

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## wlewisiii (May 28, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> 1] The Illusion of Russian and Chinese Aggression Around the World
> 
> 2] Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren's latest plan to make herself more powerful
> 
> ...




Quite the selection of Pro-Putler propaganda. Are you saying you believe this drek? Or are you offering it up for the derision it deserves because even where correct, it is inapplicable?

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## Glider (May 28, 2022)

Glider said:


> I am afraid that the West are not giving Ukraine what they really need right now and that is effective armour in numbers, aircraft and effective ECM. This is a huge country and Russia has numbers on its side. Russia tried to fight 'the European way' and got hammered. Now its reverting back to the 'Traditional Russian way' using its numbers taking a piece at a time while tying down Ukraine Army by threats from the North and attacking using effective artillery fire.
> Only airpower has the ability to strike quickly, with considerable strength hundreds of miles from its base. Only airpower can cover more than one front at a time, in this case strike in the east while cover the North from an attack from Belarus.
> 
> There is no doubt that the Russian Airforce doesn't have control of the air, but they don't need it. As long as they can stop the Ukraine Airforce from attacking their army and its artillery, they can pound their way to victory. That is the primary task of the Russian Airforce, and that is a task they seem to be able to do.
> ...


I admit that I wasn't expecting anyone to find this posting funny

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## GTX (May 28, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> 2] Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren's latest plan to make herself more powerful


You have absolutely no credibility if you are quoting Comrade Tucker Carlson.

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## SaparotRob (May 28, 2022)

Is he a registered foreign agent or what?

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## buffnut453 (May 28, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> 1] The Illusion of Russian and Chinese Aggression Around the World
> 
> 2] Tucker Carlson: Elizabeth Warren's latest plan to make herself more powerful
> 
> ...




The first video is former Virginia State Senator, Richard H. Black. I've actually met the guy and he's a charming gentleman whose military service I strongly respect. HOWEVER...in this case, he's presenting an incredibly partial picture of reality.

His characterization of US foreign policy as overthrowing governments that don't agree with us, and contrasting it with China's approach of just trying to make a buck is wholly inaccurate. His comparison of the numbers of US and UK overseas bases compared to Russia and China is also disingenuous. Most of our overseas bases are there at the direct invitation of the host nation because they want the US presence as a stabilizing factor in the region.

America has a highly-nuanced foreign policy that strives to uphold principles of freedom and democracy. Yes, China invests heavily overseas but it comes with all sorts of strings attached. For example, China built a new HQ for the African Union but it had to be completed by Chinese contractors and one floor of the building had to be set aside for Chinese "business" use. It was later discovered that the entire building, including the IT infrastructure, was bugged.

My other frustration with a lot of this rhetoric is that US nationalism constantly seeks to criticize overseas investment, presenting it as a zero-sum game where investment overseas means the US can't invest in US-based "stuff". This false dichotomy completely ignores the fact that deterring autocratic regimes and bolstering democracy and capitalism are directly aligned with US national interests. The US can't maintain its presence as a superpower if it simply retreats into its shell and doesn't seek to influence the status quo in the US interest. Turning inwards will mark the death-knell for US influence overseas, and that absolutely WILL encourage autocrats everywhere.

I haven't looked at the other 2 videos but I did want to comment on Black's remarks since, as a former USMC Colonel, his remarks do carry some weight.

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## GTX (May 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The first video is former Virginia State Senator, Richard H. Black. I've actually met the guy and he's a charming gentleman whose military service I strongly respect. HOWEVER...in this case, he's presenting an incredibly partial picture of reality.


He might be nice in person but he has a history of making questionable decisions/comments such as this from 2014:

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## buffnut453 (May 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> He might be nice in person but he has a history of making questionable decisions/comments such as this from 2014:
> 
> View attachment 671278



Which is exactly why I wanted to call out some of his rhetoric specifically. He has some pretty odd ideas.

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## ThomasP (May 28, 2022)

Like many of the elderly, politicians often begin losing significant cognitive skills as they age. (I am assuming they had significant cognitive skills at some point in the past.)

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

Apparently 

 Sid327
doesn't feel comfortable defending his views, as he simply dropped some videos and ran along?

Kinda like a seagull, drop a turd and fly away.

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## FLYBOYJ (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Apparently
> 
> Sid327
> doesn't feel comfortable defending his views, as he simply dropped some videos and ran along?
> ...


I was going to comment about some of that nonsense and possibly edit it for going too deep into politics but I think most if not all of the participants on this thread read through the fecal matter.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was going to comment about some of that nonsense and possibly edit it for going too deep into politics but I think most if not all of the participants on this thread read through the fecal matter.



Good decision from my stand, for what that's worth.

It did make me want to post this Carly Simon video --

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## Greg Boeser (May 28, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was going to comment about some of that nonsense and possibly edit it for going too deep into politics but I think most if not all of the participants on this thread read through the fecal matter.


We were supposed to read through the fecal matter? I just flushed and moved on.

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## SaparotRob (May 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> We were supposed to read through the fecal matter? I just flushed and moved on.


So young and yet so wise.

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## at6 (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Good decision from my stand, for what that's worth.
> 
> It did make me want to post this Carly Simon video --



How on Earth did you know that she was singing about me?

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

at6 said:


> How on Earth did you know that she was singing about me?



Prob'ly .... lol

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

_
The U.S. will transfer long-range rocket systems to Ukraine to aid the country's fight against Russia in the Donbas region, officials told multiple outlets. 

Ukrainian officials have been asking the U.S. to send the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), CNN first reported, citing U.S. officials.

The weapons would be a significant improvement from Ukraine's current artillery — an MLRS is able to fire hundreds of kilometers away and HIMARS is able to fire the same type of ammunition as an MLRS.

Defense officials did not specify to The New York Times what kind of weapons transfer would be announced. However, the outlet noted that the transfer would likely be made next week._



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3504730-us-to-transfer-long-range-rocket-systems-to-ukraine-amid-donbas-struggle-reports/



Hopefully it's not too late.

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## Jagdflieger (May 28, 2022)

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;

"Covert mobilization measures are underway in Russia. The enemy continues to remove obsolete weapons and military equipment from mobilization deployment centers. Reservists are being trained in the Voronezh region," the war update reads.

Meanwhile, Belarus is further strengthening positions at the border with Ukraine in Volyn and Polissya directions. Their army group was reinforced by electronic warfare maneuver groups operating along the state border of Ukraine. Training of reserve officers set to man units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces is underway.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
> 
> "Covert mobilization measures are underway in Russia. The enemy continues to remove obsolete weapons and military equipment from mobilization deployment centers. Reservists are being trained in the Voronezh region," the war update reads.
> 
> Meanwhile, *Belarus is further strengthening positions at the border* with Ukraine in Volyn and Polissya directions. Their army group was reinforced by electronic warfare maneuver groups operating along the state border of Ukraine. Training of reserve officers set to man units of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces is underway.


 As of Belarus, I think Poland should do the same to them. Making clear that as soon as a single Bielorussian (not counting those fighting with Ukraine) puts its feet in Ukraine, there will be polish boots in Bielorussia too.


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## Sid327 (May 29, 2022)

This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.
-------------
What surprises me most of all is that most seem unaware of the US Government and NATO (who they own and dictate to) are funding Nazis.
When the US Government organised and supported the coup to overthrow the elected government in Ukraine in 2014, they chose and put in place people who were sympathetic to the many fascists and Neo-Nazis who come from the west of Ukraine.
If anyone is unaware of this search Stepan Bandera and what these western Ukrainians did in 1941 when the German Nazis invaded Ukraine. Not only did they form their own Nazi battalions and fight against their own people but they were involved in the torture and murder of tens of thousands of Jews and other innocents. The information is online for anyone who is bothered to read about it.
-------------
The 2014 coup gave these fascists the support once again to not only become part of the Kiev regime at every level but they formed their own battalions once again; the Azov, Right Sector, C14 and others who promptly went to the east side of the country where Ethnic Russians live (The east and southern coast, including Crimea all formerly belonged to Russia. It was carved off by the Bolsheviks in 1922 to establish the Ukraine SSR. The west side of Ukraine used to be part of Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The fascists among these people see Ethnic Russians as sub-human and vowed to ethnically cleanse their country of them.
-------------
From mid-2014 until now these Ukrainian Nazis have bombarded the people in the Donbass and killed ~14 to 15,000 civilians, women children and seniors. The US & NATO have been training these fascists since 2014 and sending weapons to them as the US Government's agenda is to use Ukraine to destroy Russia. A proxy war which they will continue to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. They don't care about Ukraine, they are only focused on destroying Russia because they must be bad. The US Gov needs an enemy to feed their military industrial complex, it controls the country to the detriment of their own domestic problems.
-------------
That the sanctions have not only failed, they have backfired.
If those who fought to rid Europe of Nazis in WW2 knew what the USA and NATO/EU are doing now, they'd turn in their graves.
For those with a free thinking mind, simply search for ''Nazis are in every level of the kiev regime''.
-------------
To know what they are doing here is probably what will be seen somehow as false information:
1] 

The UK even granted citizenship to Zelensky and his stooges.

I don't care if I'm banned, it also wouldn't surprise me if my posts are removed, I know it's sometimes difficult to handle the truth. This forum decided to go full Russo-phobia, I simply provided an alternative view which obviously goes against the arrogant stance here.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 29, 2022)

Glad UK is aligning with the non-appeasing line of thinking.

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## buffnut453 (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.
> -------------
> What surprises me most of all is that most seem unaware of the US Government and NATO (who they own and dictate to) are funding Nazis.
> When the US Government organised and supported the coup to overthrow the elected government in Ukraine in 2014, they chose and put in place people who were sympathetic to the many fascists and Neo-Nazis who come from the west of Ukraine.
> ...




Well, when you post crap like that, what do you expect? You really think the US initiated the 2014 coup and determined who would be Ukraine’s leaders? Keep drinking the kool aid.

This thread has highlighted potential atrocities by Ukrainian forces since the Russian invasion. There’s also been a pretty balanced discussion about Ukrainian corruption and the efforts to eradicate it. 

Clearly, the fact that Zelensky’s family was virtually wiped out by the Holocaust means nothing? Is he still one of the Ukrainian Nazis?

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## Sid327 (May 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You really think the US initiated the 2014 coup and determined who would be Ukraine’s leaders?


This information is also available online. Suggest you get off your high horse and try a little free-minded thinking.

1] 

2] 

3] 

This guy posts good knowledgeable content:

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## Dimlee (May 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, when you post crap like that, what do you expect? You really think the US initiated the 2014 coup and determined who would be Ukraine’s leaders? Keep drinking the kool aid.
> 
> This thread has highlighted potential atrocities by Ukrainian forces since the Russian invasion. There’s also been a pretty balanced discussion about Ukrainian corruption and the efforts to eradicate it.
> 
> Clearly, the fact that Zelensky’s family was virtually wiped out by the Holocaust means nothing? Is he still one of the Ukrainian Nazis?


I suspect this is just another soldier of the information warfare. The narrative, the "arguments", the number of links and files just happened to be available at his disposal...Everything is so typical and so familiar. 
The soldier is doing his job according to the instructions or his convictions. 
And I'm pressing the "ignore" button.

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## Dimlee (May 29, 2022)

In the meantime, just another day in the town of Zolochiv, Kharkiv region.

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## Glider (May 29, 2022)

Sid327

_What surprises me most of all is that most seem unaware of the US Government and NATO (who they own and dictate to) are funding Nazis.
When the US Government organised and supported the coup to overthrow the elected government in Ukraine in 2014, they chose and put in place people who were sympathetic to the many fascists and Neo-Nazis who come from the west of Ukraine._

You are aware that the Ukraine Leader is Jewish and lost a number of his family members in the Holocaust?. You are aware that under the previous leadership (the one who has run to Putin for protection) Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and the present leadership was and is doing all it can to change that.
--------------
_If anyone is unaware of this search Stepan Bandera and what these western Ukrainians did in 1941 when the German Nazis invaded Ukraine. Not only did they form their own Nazi battalions and fight against their own people but they were involved in the torture and murder of tens of thousands of Jews and other innocents. The information is online for anyone who is bothered to read about it_.

You are aware that Germany and Russia invaded Poland and started WW2. That Russia and Poland have treated the Jewish population with disdain for many years. You are aware that in this conflict (and others it has been involved in over recent years) Russia has deliberately allowed the people it has supported to target hospitals and refuges.
-------------
_The 2014 coup gave these fascists the support once again to not only become part of the Kiev regime at every level but they formed their own battalions once again; the Azov, Right Sector, C14 and others who promptly went to the east side of the country where Ethnic Russians live (The east and southern coast, including Crimea all formerly belonged to Russia. It was carved off by the Bolsheviks in 1922 to establish the Ukraine SSR. The west side of Ukraine used to be part of Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The fascists among these people see Ethnic Russians as sub-human and vowed to ethnically cleanse their country of them_.

Then maybe you can explain to me why one of the biggest shocks to the people of Ukraine and the people of Russia was why Russia attacked Ukraine despite a shared culture going back generations, despite the famine forced on the people of Ukraine by Stalin in the 30's that killed millions.
-------------
_From mid-2014 until now these Ukrainian Nazis have bombarded the people in the Donbass and killed ~14 to 15,000 civilians, women children and seniors. The US & NATO have been training these fascists since 2014 and sending weapons to them as the US Government's agenda is to use Ukraine to destroy Russia. A proxy war which they will continue to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. They don't care about Ukraine, they are only focused on destroying Russia because they must be bad. The US Gov needs an enemy to feed their military industrial complex, it controls the country to the detriment of their own domestic problems_.

Then maybe you can explain why Russia hasn't been making official complaints and raising merry hell over this treatment since 2014. If you can find official complaints to the UN or other authorities from say 2016 I would take you comments seriously. To only start hearing of these 'atrocities' in the last three months once this Russian attack started, and once it had gone wrong, I find more than a little convenient.
Also if the USA plan was to destroy Russia then Ukraine would have attacked Russia which was never going to happen in a million years.
-------------
_That the sanctions have not only failed, they have backfired._

In what way have the sanctions backfired? T62 tanks being brought out of storage, T72's that had French targeting systems that are not being replaced. Some of your most modern aircraft having cheap commercial Sat Nav systems taped to the instrument panels, Countless hundreds of thousands of ordinary Russians losing their jobs. The brain drain of the brightest younger Russians leaving the county, inflation rising considerably faster than earnings which will cause considerable hardship to all.

_If those who fought to rid Europe of Nazis in WW2 knew what the USA and NATO/EU are doing now, they'd turn in their graves.
For those with a free thinking mind, simply search for ''Nazis are in every level of the kiev regime_''.

I have a number of good friends in Russia and it is they who are turning over and over in their sleep wondering what has Putin got them into. They wanted to believe it in the beginning but now the evidence is building up and becoming overwhelming, realisation is dawning.

Finally a simple yes or no question to you.
Do you believe Putin's rhetoric that this special operation is going to plan?

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## wlewisiii (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.


Hope you get your pay in dollars or euros rather than rubles, Tovarisch.

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## RogerdeLluria (May 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I suspect this is just another soldier of the information warfare. The narrative, the "arguments", the number of links and files just happened to be available at his disposal...Everything is so typical and so familiar.
> The soldier is doing his job according to the instructions or his convictions.
> *And I'm pressing the "ignore" button.*


 Probably the most intelligent action

1, 2, 3 ... I'm pressing too.

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## Snautzer01 (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.


Yet you keep on typing, waisting space. So which one are you?

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## RogerdeLluria (May 29, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



Yep, looks like an ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson is underway:









Ukraine Situation Report: Southern Counterattack Against Russian Forces Underway


Amongst the combat on multiple fronts, Ukraine claims that one of its MiG-29s shot down a Russian Su-35.




www.thedrive.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

Everyone knock if off with the personal insults.

As for Sid327, I find it very funny that you are telling others to think with an open mind. That’s what Q believers say too. I’m not sure you would see the truth if it smacked you square in the face.

As for this forum being the most disrespectful place on the net. That too is hogwash. While we are human, we try and keep it pretty clean here and respectful.

If you don’t like it here, then you are welcome to go somewhere else. No one is forcing you to stay here. If people calling you out for falsehoods and brainwashery offends you, then maybe you should go.

As for everyone else. No more personal insults. If you cannot respond to his posts politely and in a civil manner then put him on ignore.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

Also what do you expect if you are going to come in here and post videos from Youtube as your evidence, videos from dubious sources, and call that your “research.”

I guess we all need to become more “woke”.


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## WARSPITER (May 29, 2022)

I would prefer it if the majority of members here retain their current state of being 'awake' rather than 'woke'.

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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

Is it possible to add voting option for banning irritating persons from discussion??? Let say 5 votes for ban and such person is out??


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Is it possible to add voting option for banning irritating persons from discussion??? Let say 5 votes for ban and such person is out??



No

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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No


Pity...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Is it possible to add voting option for banning irritating persons from discussion??? Let say 5 votes for ban and such person is out??


And anyone with a personal vendetta open múltiples accounts and banned everyone he don't like.

Beside, an irritating person could have interesting points to say.

So, no thanks. I have full confidence in the mods to police a healthly debate.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Pity...



You have the ignore function at your disposal.


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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

thanks - i will give it a try when i will find it


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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> And anyone with a personal vendetta open múltiples accounts and banned everyone he don't like.
> 
> Beside, an irritating person could have interesting points to say.
> 
> So, no thanks. I have full confidence in the mods to police a healthly debate.


i have more trust in members of this forum - this is main reason i'm trying to participate in discussion - i'm just little bit confused that some very "controversional" threads are ignored and left as it has been posted by moderator - but i understand that freedom of speech is main rule here - i'm fully supporting this approach

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## Mike Williams (May 29, 2022)

I found this Update from Ukraine presentation as of 5/28 to be interesting and informative:

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## Zipper730 (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'll take "whataboutism" for a True Daily Double, Alex.


I'm surprised it's attributed to just the USSR since it's something even kids do (particularly those with siblings: "But my brother was doing it too!"): Anybody who has siblings, knows somebody who has siblings, has more than one child, or knows somebody who does will tell you that argument never works. It doesn't get them off the hook and, ironically, it often doesn't even get the other sibling in trouble.

When it enters the political sphere, regardless of the politicians nation of origin, political affiliation, it almost always produces a race to the bottom in permissible conduct because, as long as somebody is doing something worse than you (and there's almost always somebody who is), everything you do is okay.



ThomasP said:


> Like many of the elderly, politicians often begin losing significant cognitive skills as they age. (I am assuming they had significant cognitive skills at some point in the past.)


It seems that there is a tendency in some nations for the average politician at the upper level to be getting older. While I have no problem with the elderly (I was raised by my grandparents), some suffer cognitive declines (a problem noted by a pharmacist of all people, though I don't believe this problem is specific to any specific country) which can be dangerous when people are in positions of policy-making.

This problem dogged the former USSR until Gorbachev got into office. Mikhail Gorbachev wasn't young -- he was in his 50's if I recall, but he was the youngest member of the Politburo.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> thanks - i will give it a try when i will find it



Go to the person’s profile and there should be an option for it.


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## SaparotRob (May 29, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I found this Update from Ukraine presentation as of 5/28 to be interesting and informative:



I subscribed to his channel. He presents bad news as well as good news. He seems very credible to me. He also flies Boeing, always a plus.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i have more trust in members of this forum - this is main reason i'm trying to participate in discussion - i'm just little bit confused that some very "controversional" threads are ignored and left as it has been posted by moderator - but i understand that freedom of speech is main rule here - i'm fully supporting this approach



What “controversial” threads are you talking about?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He also flies Boeing, always a plus.

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## Jagdflieger (May 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I subscribed to his channel. He presents bad news as well as good news. He seems very credible to me. He also flies Boeing, always a plus.


You meant Airbus - right?

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## GrauGeist (May 29, 2022)

And here I thought Putin's special operation was to stop the Ukrainians from making chemtrails?

No?

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## Greg Boeser (May 29, 2022)

Nazi chemtrails.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (May 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I subscribed to his channel. He presents bad news as well as good news. He seems very credible to me. He also flies Boeing, always a plus.


Old Boeing or Boeing after the merger with McD?

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## Jagdflieger (May 29, 2022)

According to dpa (German press agency) Erdogan remains at no to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.
He also reminded the USA onto it's obligation towards terrorism - if necessary Turkey will conduct military action towards Syria by themselves.

Germany, France and Italy are presently discussing a change of direction regarding their support towards Ukraine. (due to Ukraine's unwillingness to enter ceasefire negotiations with Russia, they fear further escalation)
However I can't find a secondary source to confirm the latter statement at present.

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## Glider (May 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I subscribed to his channel. He presents bad news as well as good news. He seems very credible to me. He also flies Boeing, always a plus.


I agree with your points. There is one thing that has dropped from the conversation and that is Odessa. There was a significant amount of effort into taking Odessa, as that would have a significant impact on Ukraine, both now and in the future. It looks as if its another significant failure on Russia's aims as there is nothing going on in that area.

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## SaparotRob (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You meant Airbus - right?


NOPE.

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## Denniss (May 29, 2022)

I'd rather trade Sweden and Finland for Turkey, at least under its current dictator.
Is there an option to suspend NATO membership if a country does something wrong like attacking a neighbour?
I assume there's another option by creating a bilateral contract signed by all NATO members (except the Troll) to act as defense pact is Sweden or Finland are attacked.


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## SaparotRob (May 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Old Boeing or Boeing after the merger with McD?


Think it’s 737 “classic “. Not 737 “Jurassic “.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Regarding Erdogan, I was just reading an opinion piece at TNI about it. An excerpt:

_
In addition to his ties with Moscow, Erdogan is using Turkey's membership in organizations like NATO to realize unrelated concessions from the West. Ankara is recklessly standing in the way of Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO membership, which has the support of the Biden administration and will be ultimately approved. Rather than agreeing to a quid pro quo, Washington should exact a toll on Erdogan for muddying the waters at a key historical moment for Finland, Sweden, and the NATO alliance.

Showing such disunity in the face of Russia's horrific war against Ukraine is irresponsible, misguided, and contrary to Turkey's short- and long-term interests. Erdogan's intransigence will not score him any points amongst policymakers who are weighing the arms sales that he covets. In fact, it is accelerating the spread of anti-Turkish sentiment. As former U.S. ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman pointed out, "There is broad support for Finland and Sweden in Congress, and many members would like nothing better than to trade Turkey as a member for the two Nordic states."_









Don’t Fall For Erdogan’s Not So Charming Offensive


Erdogan’s silver tongue is a reminder of who he really is and whose side he’s on.




nationalinterest.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.
> -------------
> What surprises me most of all is that most seem unaware of the US Government and NATO (who they own and dictate to) are funding Nazis.
> When the US Government organised and supported the coup to overthrow the elected government in Ukraine in 2014, they chose and put in place people who were sympathetic to the many fascists and Neo-Nazis who come from the west of Ukraine.
> ...




Quality of reply is usually closely related to quality of post being answered. I'm a fairly plain-spoken guy.

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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

latest donation from Poland to ukraine, 4 bateries of KRAB gun hawitzers

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## SaparotRob (May 29, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I found this Update from Ukraine presentation as of 5/28 to be interesting and informative:



He just posted another video. It's quite a sobering evaluation.

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## Dimlee (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 671362
> 
> latest donation from Poland to ukraine, 4 bateries of KRAB gun hawitzers


Bardzo dziękuję!
They said that crews have completed the training already. Well done.

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## Dimlee (May 29, 2022)

Glider said:


> I agree with your points. There is one thing that has dropped from the conversation and that is Odessa. There was a significant amount of effort into taking Odessa, as that would have a significant impact on Ukraine, both now and in the future. It looks as if its another significant failure on Russia's aims as there is nothing going on in that area.


They can not advance to Odesa until Mykolaiv stands. And landing operation is hardly an option.

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## GTX (May 29, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This forum is the unfriendliest I've encountered. Mockery, sarcasm, insults and bad manners, seems to be normal fare. The arrogance and conceit as well as the belief that certain members can never be wrong is why I don't bother with posting information or comments anymore.
> -------------
> *What surprises me most of all is that most seem unaware of the US Government and NATO (who they own and dictate to) are funding Nazis.*


Ok - enough! It's obvious you don’t need to be here, good-bye!

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## J_P_C (May 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Bardzo dziękuję!
> They said that crews have completed the training already. Well done.


well invested money, i i hope it has been transferred whole equipment, including command system, reconaisance drones and logistic elements

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## special ed (May 29, 2022)

Regarding "mockery, sarcasm, and insult", such is to be expected with so many members having been in the military. I was aware of this long before I joined and have been the subject of same, most of it justified.

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## FLYBOYJ (May 29, 2022)

As stated many times, I'm sure this guy is behind funding all those Ukrainian Nazis!

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## buffnut453 (May 29, 2022)

Sid327 said:


> This information is also available online. Suggest you get off your high horse and try a little free-minded thinking.
> 
> 1]
> 
> ...




People who know me on this forum also know I'm a pretty balanced guy who tries to apply experience and reason....so throw rocks at my so-called lack of free-minded thinking if you wish. However, here are a few points for you.

I started reviewing your "evidence" with the intent of countering each point made...but I had to give up because it would have occupied pages and pages of contradictions to push back on the nonsense. A democratic, Western-leaning Ukraine is in US and European best interests. It's what the Ukrainian people voted for (and why they evicted Yanukovich in the first place). I've actually worked at US European Command HQ in Stuttgart and I've never, EVER seen any sort of plan that discusses aspirations for US bases in Ukraine. Back in 2014, USEUCOM's primary mission was funneling forces into the USCENTCOM region so to suggest that, somehow, USEUCOM was planning for Ukrainian bases in 2014 is ludicrous.

It's funny how all the commentary is about the Obama administration and its ties to Yatsenyuk and yet no mention is made of the in-person visit by Republican John McCain where he met with Yatsenyuk. Again, if the coup was an American conspiracy under the Obama administration, why would McCain, who was Obama's competitor for the office of President in 2008, buy into it? Surely McCain would be screaming about such a conspiracy?

There is so much spin and glib commentary in these videos. They prove NOTHING except that the US State Department actively works to promote US interests overseas. To suggest that the State Dept can foment regime change covertly at a national level is, frankly, laughable. To think that somehow this was a great conspiracy that a few YouTube video bloggers have managed to uncover is even more ridiculous. In order for such actions to succeed, it would require (a) the US Govt to be incredibly effective and integrated, and (b) that it has direct influence over the daily lives of the people in foreign countries. Neither of those requirements are met. If you've ever worked in or near US Govt, you'll know how dysfunctional it can be. Also, as we've seen with Russia, there's the law of unintended consequences. The actions you take may not work out the way you want. The whole idea that the US fomented the coup in Ukraine and that it came of flawlessly is simply unrealistic. Look at the US invasion of Iraq which was a disaster because the US Govt failed to plan for the peace, assuming that the Iraqi people would welcome US forces with open arms. Look at the pull out from Afghanistan which was equally disastrous. Look at the Libyan Embassy disaster, Arab Spring, and the failure in Syria...and we're supposed to believe that, somehow, the coup in Ukraine was designed and implemented by America without a single glitch?

Some of these videos repeat other conspiracy theories, for example throwing George Soros into the mix. Let's suppose, for a moment, that Soros was involved in fomenting the coup in Ukraine in 2014. Two years later, Trump became President. Why did he not order an investigation of their actions? Why was the charitable status of Soros' various humanitarian organizations not revoked? Let's face it, the rhetoric within certain quarters of the Republican party seeks to burn George Soros at the stake and, yet, when in power they took no action against him. Why is that? Is Soros so powerful that he can face down the Department of Justice, the State Department and even the President? Or is it, perhaps, that the rhetoric about him is merely that...rhetoric with no evidence to back it up?

I've worked in and alongside government for well over 30 years under politicians of multiple different stripes. Regardless of political bent at the time, the one universal trait is the uncanny ability of governments to demonstrate, all too frequently, that they couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery. The US Government isn't nearly as powerful as many Americans think it is. It isn't some all-knowing hive-mind. It's a bunch of civil servants, most of whom are massively underpaid. The presence of a few, high-profile, individuals does not change the fundamental nature of the bureaucracy because, ultimately, those same civil servants remain in their posts. Yes, the political appointees change but the underlying processes don't. That's why progress within government is such damned hard work...and it's a problem I work every single day of my professional life, so please don't throw conspiracy nonsense at me. I've seen the inside of Government and it's a scary place...but only because of how incompetent it is, not because it's some evil nexus for everything bad in the world.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

special ed said:


> Regarding "mockery, sarcasm, and insult", such is to be expected with so many members having been in the military. I was aware of this long before I joined and have been the subject of same, most of it justified.



It's GI jargon, more usually leavened with a fair bit o' cussin'. I shudder to think what crisis that might have triggered.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I've seen the inside of Government and it's a scary place...but only because of how incompetent it is, not because it's some evil nexus for everything bad in the world.



Hanlon's Razor is a valid concept, especially when regarding governmental decisions and acts.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> People who know me on this forum also know I'm a pretty balanced guy who tries to apply experience and reason....so throw rocks at my so-called lack of free-minded thinking if you wish. However, here are a few points for you.
> 
> I started reviewing your "evidence" with the intent of countering each point made...but I had to give up because it would have occupied pages and pages of contradictions to push back on the nonsense. A democratic, Western-leaning Ukraine is in US and European best interests. It's what the Ukrainian people voted for (and why they evicted Yanukovich in the first place). I've actually worked at US European Command HQ in Stuttgart and I've never, EVER seen any sort of plan that discusses aspirations for US bases in Ukraine. Back in 2014, USEUCOM's primary mission was funneling forces into the USCENTCOM region so to suggest that, somehow, USEUCOM was planning for Ukrainian bases in 2014 is ludicrous.
> 
> ...

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## MiTasol (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You meant Airbus - right?


You left the Sc off the front

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## Glider (May 29, 2022)

I hate saying it, but it looks as if as we suspected Germany isn't supporting Ukraine. Or the Poles who have passed equipment onto Ukraine on the promise from Germany to backfill the donation



Germany has not sent promised large arms to Ukraine, leaked documents show



This quote sums it all up
_Mr Scholz has been under fire at home and abroad for failing to deliver full support for Ukraine. Germany's opposition leader Friedrich Merz visited Ukraine in early May, saying Mr Scholz's appeasement policy was weak and insecure.

"The chancellor answered all the questions no one asked, and he has not answered a single one of the questions we asked him," Mr Merz said at the time._

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## FLYBOYJ (May 29, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> You left the Sc off the front


"Fly by wire, die by fire"

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## Greg Boeser (May 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> People who know me on this forum also know I'm a pretty balanced guy who tries to apply experience and reason....so throw rocks at my so-called lack of free-minded thinking if you wish. However, here are a few points for you.
> 
> I started reviewing your "evidence" with the intent of countering each point made...but I had to give up because it would have occupied pages and pages of contradictions to push back on the nonsense. A democratic, Western-leaning Ukraine is in US and European best interests. It's what the Ukrainian people voted for (and why they evicted Yanukovich in the first place). I've actually worked at US European Command HQ in Stuttgart and I've never, EVER seen any sort of plan that discusses aspirations for US bases in Ukraine. Back in 2014, USEUCOM's primary mission was funneling forces into the USCENTCOM region so to suggest that, somehow, USEUCOM was planning for Ukrainian bases in 2014 is ludicrous.
> 
> ...


Dude! Shut up! Your giving away TOP SECRET info to our enemies. 
I remember my army days. We were constantly being reminded that we were the most highly trained military in the world. All I could think was "God help the rest of them."

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## Jagdflieger (May 29, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> You left the Sc off the front


Ah... jealousy starting to reign in ..

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## at6 (May 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Is it possible to add voting option for banning irritating persons from discussion??? Let say 5 votes for ban and such person is out??


I've been corrected here for comments that inadvertently offended a few people. Even the moderators have justifiably called me on the carpet a few times and the voting option would have banned me a long time ago. I'm not always right and I can get mean and nasty sometimes.

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## at6 (May 29, 2022)

I keep hearing calls for Ukraine to cede land to Russia to end the war. That would be giving Putin his victory. Anyone trying force such a solution on Ukraine needs to be slapped so hard that the Chinese will be scraping their faces off of the Great Wall.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

I don't like the idea of voting for bans. That would encourage cliques and perhaps even groupthink. 

The rules are clear, and yes, the mods should have to vote in order to prevent bias amongst themselves (barring the obvious porn/spam etc -- that should be click and kill), but the wider readership voting a member in or out? I don't think that's a good idea.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> I keep hearing calls for Ukraine to cede land to Russia to end the war. That would be giving Putin his victory. Anyone trying force such a solution on Ukraine needs to be slapped so hard that the Chinese will scraping their faces off of the Great Wall.



Agreed. Given that the Ukrainians are the only ones with skin in the game, the victory conditions are for them alone to decide.

Our decision in the West will be how long we're willing to support them, and that's a different kettle of fish.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> I've been corrected here for comments that inadvertently offended a few people. Even the moderators have justifiably called me on the carpet a few times and the voting option would have banned me a long time ago. I'm not always right and I can get mean and nasty sometimes.



I'm one of those who have called you out, but I would not vote for your banning, not because I agree with you, but because you give voice to feelings I don't feel but still should know about.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't like the idea of voting for bans. That would encourage cliques and perhaps even groupthink.



Agreed



Thumpalumpacus said:


> The rules are clear, and yes, the mods should have to vote in order to prevent bias amongst themselves (barring the obvious porn/spam etc -- that should be click and kill), but the wider readership voting a member in or out? I don't think that's a good idea.



I can assure that we Mods do not take the banning of anyone lightly. It is never easy, and it is always a last resort (outside of the obvious porn/spam, etc. you refer to).

We have an Admin/Mod section that is only accessible to the Admin/Mod team, and we always discuss these actions as a team. I can tell you that we are also human and have differences amongst ourselves. We don’t always agree, but we discuss any issue as a team and come together on an agreed upon team consensus. That is why we have a team made up of multiple members (rather than just one or two), and we also ensure that team is an international one (that way it is not US or Eurocentric). 

I think for the most part we do a pretty decent job. I know we try to be impartial, even when we agree with a certain position. We are human though, and we too can make mistakes and even “lose our cool” from time to time.

For me personally, it is about preserving this place and the friendships I have made here. This forum got me through some dark days when I was in Iraq. I joined the Mod team while I was there. I consider everyone here a friend (and even my online family), even those I have a hard time agreeing with or those I want to smack across the face.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I was a mod at a freethought forum for a while and we had that same mod-section thread for discussing poster issues. I was diligent about recusing myself if I was involved in the discussion, and from that experience and my time here I think that the moderation is generally very good.

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## Greg Boeser (May 29, 2022)

Freethought? 
Does that mean it's not worth a damn?

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## MiTasol (May 29, 2022)

No - that is freedumb

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## XBe02Drvr (May 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Freethought?
> Does that mean it's not worth a damn?


No, it means you didn't have to pay for the right to express it.
(Other than a few years of your life to Uncle)

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Freethought?
> Does that mean it's not worth a damn?



I had a drummer in a band one time who wouldn't stencil our band's name on the head of his kick-drum. Instead, he'd stenciled "Your opinion of me is none of my business."

That's freethought, and worth every penny you've paid for it!

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## at6 (May 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Freethought?
> Does that mean it's not worth a damn?


No. It means that it's a freeby. How ever, you must include a self addressed and stamped envelope.

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## at6 (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm one of those who have called you out, but I would not vote for your banning, not because I agree with you, but because you give voice to feelings I don't feel but still should know about.


An unlike some thin skinned people, I accepted your comments based on their merit my friend.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> An unlike some thin skinned people, I accepted your comments based on their merit my friend.



We need not agree to get along.

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## buffnut453 (May 29, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Ok - enough! It's obvious you don’t need to be here, good-bye!



Yeah...the whole "US owns and dictates to NATO" is another good one. 

Having participated in a number of NATO meetings over the years, I can absolutely guarantee that the US does not dictate to NATO. It's one of the reasons making progress within NATO is so slow...because all the countries have to agree. Take national bureaucracy inertia and then multiply that by 30 for ANY decision...which standards to adopt? Which software applications to use? What acronyms should forces use and what do they mean? What doctrine does NATO follow? 

I can absolutely guarantee that the US is not dictating any of this stuff...and if the US can't dictate low-level crap like this, how on earth is it going to dictate the big stuff like how to respond to crises?

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## Mike Williams (May 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He just posted another video. It's quite a sobering evaluation.


I found that report from 5/29 rather encouraging. "Today probably more good news than bad news".

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## SaparotRob (May 29, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I found that report from 5/29 rather encouraging. "Today probably more good news than bad news".



He had posted one before this one. I like the tone of this much more.


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## buffnut453 (May 30, 2022)

Ukrainian Eurovision Song Contest winners auction their trophy on FaceBook to buy drones for the Ukraine military:









Ukraine war: Eurovision trophy sold to buy drones for Ukraine


The Ukrainian winners of this year's song contest, Kalush Orchestra, sell their trophy for $900,000.



www.bbc.com

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## at6 (May 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We need not agree to get along.


True. I have a policy now similar to my don't drink and drive. Don't drink and post. I'm founding the "Posters Against Drunk Posting".

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## ThomasP (May 30, 2022)

Some interesting info re Turkey/Erdogan's behavior in the current situation involving Russia.

"Relations between Turkey and the Russian Federation / Rep. of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs."

I had not realized the extent of Turkey's pre-Ukraine war economic dependence on Russia. Seeing this I am a bit surprised that Turkey shut down the Bosphorus as quickly as they did. On the other hand, it may have been the most effective and practical option for them in terms of economic and international relations.

Also "Russia and Turkey: An Ambiguous Energy Partnership"

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 30, 2022)

_
KRAMATORSK, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops pushed farther into a key eastern Ukrainian city and fought street by street with Kyiv's forces Monday in a battle the mayor said has left the city "completely ruined" and driven tends of thousands from their homes.

Military analysts painted the battle as part of a race against time for the Kremlin, which they said wants to complete its capture of the industrial Donbas region before more Western arms arrive to bolster Ukraine's defenses. Weapons from the West have already helped Kyiv's forces thwart a Russian advance on the capital in the early weeks of the war. That failure forced Moscow to withdraw, regroup, and pursue a more limited objective of seizing the Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatists already held swaths of territory and have been fighting Ukrainian troops for eight years.

In recent days, the fighting has focused on Sievierodonetsk in a battle Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called "indescribably difficult." Relentless Russian artillery barrages have destroyed critical infrastructure and damaged 90% of the buildings, and power and communications have been largely cut to a city that was once home to 100,000 people.

"The number of victims is rising every hour, but we are unable to count the dead and the wounded amid the street fighting," Mayor Oleksandr Striuk told The Associated Press in a phone interview, adding that Moscow's troops advanced a few more blocks toward the city center.

"The city has been completely ruined," he added, and only about 12,000 to 13,000 residents remain, sheltering in basements and bunkers to escape the Russian bombardment — a situation that recalls the siege of Mariupol that trapped residents and led to some of the worst suffering of the war.

While tens of thousands are believed to have died in Mariupol, Striuk estimated that 1,500 civilians have died in his city since the war began, from Russian attacks as well as from the dire conditions, including a lack of medicine or medical treatment.

The Ukrainian military said Russian forces reinforced their positions on the northeastern and southeastern outskirts of Sievierodonetsk, 145 kilometers (90 miles) south of the Russian border in an area that is the last pocket of Ukrainian government control in Luhansk province._



https://thehill.com/news/ap/ap-business/russian-troops-entering-sievierodonetsk-in-eastern-ukraine/



As Beez said upthread, it's like Mariupol on a smaller scale.

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## Jagdflieger (May 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Some interesting info re Turkey/Erdogan's behavior in the current situation involving Russia.
> 
> "Relations between Turkey and the Russian Federation / Rep. of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs."
> 
> ...


I think you will find this article of interest as well








Russian rebuke of Turkey for Crimea support highlights Ankara's delicate balancing act


Turkey's support for Crimea also highlights the growing value of Ukraine and Crimea for Ankara.




www.al-monitor.com





And:
_Biden: US will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia
Joe Biden this afternoon confirmed the US has no plans to send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia.
The US has provided Ukraine with a significant amount of military aid since Russia launched an invasion of the country in late February.
Reports had emerged that the Biden administration was preparing to send advanced long-range rocket systems to Kyiv. 
However, Mr Biden dismissed this today._

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## special ed (May 30, 2022)

One of the US national TV news reported last week that a second ship bringing food to Ukraine had been sunk in the Black Sea. There was no other mention on other networks, or any follow on news. I have seen no mention on this forum. More propaganda?

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## Admiral Beez (May 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> _Biden: US will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia
> Joe Biden this afternoon confirmed the US has no plans to send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia._


That's just dumb. For starters, the Ukrainians east of Kharkiv can throw a rock into Russia, they're just yards away from the border. Any rocket the Ukrainians posses can already reach Russia. How far does Biden think Russia is from Ukraine?









Ukraine Troops Reach Russia Border as Invasion Reversed


Unverified reports say Ukrainian troops have pushed back the enemy to the Russian border.




www.newsweek.com







special ed said:


> One of the US national TV news reported last week that a second ship bringing food to Ukraine had been sunk in the Black Sea.


I don't think a ship is needed to bring food to Ukraine, but instead the ships are needed to bring food out of Ukraine to the rest of us.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's just dumb. For starters, the Ukrainians east of Kharkiv can throw a rock into Russia, they're just yards away from the border. Any rocket the Ukrainians posses can already reach Russia. How far does Biden think Russia is from Ukraine?


What the Ukrainians do with their indigenous gear is their own concern, but it seems our current administration fears any damage to Russia proper from US supplied weaponry. Shall we ask for return of our M77 howitzers? How about our TOW and Stinger missiles? "If you're a bad boy and kick the bear in his nether regions, we'll take away your toys."
How silly can this get?

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## Admiral Beez (May 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> What the Ukrainians do with their indigenous gear is their own concern, but it seems our current administration fears any damage to Russia proper from US supplied weaponry. Shall we ask for return of our M77 howitzers? How about our TOW and Stinger missiles? "If you're a bad boy and kick the bear in his nether regions, we'll take away your toys."
> How silly can this get?


I think once you've sunk a Russian cruiser the gloves are off.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think once you've sunk a Russian cruiser the gloves are off.


War is hell and fig leaves are not armor plated.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 30, 2022)

What can Russia do if Ukraine uses American weapons against them? Apply sanctions? I doubt many would see MLRSes fired by Ukraine as a justification for nuclear war, which is the only Russian response that can hurt America.


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## Admiral Beez (May 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What can Russia do if Ukraine uses American weapons against them?


Easy. They use this to rally the Russian public and call for general mobilization to defend the motherland. If the Ukrainians are smart they'll fire never a shell into Russia.

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## SaparotRob (May 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I think you will find this article of interest as well
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well, those rocket systems can’t reach Russia, from here! 🙂

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## GTX (May 30, 2022)

Sievierodonetsk left 'completely ruined' by Russian advance on the city and intense fighting


Shelling has killed two civilians and wounded five others as Russian troops advanced into the city's fringes, Luhansk region Governor Serhiy Gaidai says, with Ukraine determined to slow an offensive across the Donbas region.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Easy. They use this to rally the Russian public and call for general mobilization to defend the motherland. If the Ukrainians are smart they'll fire never a shell into Russia.



Given the parlous state of their reserves, that might be useful to Putin for controlling the domestic narrative, but in terms of combat capability -- T-62s and raw recruits on the battlefield?


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## SaparotRob (May 30, 2022)

Belgorod is right there for crying out loud!


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## RogerdeLluria (May 30, 2022)

Nice article.









How long will the war last?


Henry Kissinger at Davos this week where he argued Ukraine should give up territory to end the war. If there is a single question put to me more than any other, it is ‘How long will this war last?’ – even more so than ‘Who will win?’ In practice the two questions are unavoidably connected. Both...




samf.substack.com

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## GTX (May 30, 2022)

Spotlight Brief 1/22 | Australian Army Research Centre (AARC)


This Spotlight Brief provides an introduction and context to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. It discusses Ukraine’s strategic circumstances and provides an overview of the chain of events which led to it. The Brief aims to provide a wide audience with a basis of knowledge to better understand...




researchcentre.army.gov.au

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## Admiral Beez (May 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Given the parlous state of their reserves, that might be useful to Putin for controlling the domestic narrative, but in terms of combat capability -- T-62s and raw recruits on the battlefield?


Moscow, and St. Petersburg before it have never cared about the size of the butcher's bill for any of their military adventures.

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## ThomasP (May 30, 2022)

The MLRS is in the pipeline for Ukraine, both from the US and from at least one other NATO country. I believe the controversy, and Biden's remark, are due to the idea of supplying the ATACMS part of the MLRS system - which is not in the pipeline. I think the reporters (or whoever) figured that the ATACMS is to be supplied - this is not the case.

MLRS tactical missile ranges are between 28-43 miles. The ATACMS has a range of upto ~180 miles.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Moscow, and St. Petersburg before it have never cared about the size of the butcher's bill for any of their military adventures.



Right, but the point is that their utility will be limited in any scope other than simple numbers, and calling up reserves that will be sending bodybags back home may not be safe for a regime that is already relying on draconian measures to stifle dissent.


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## GTX (May 30, 2022)

Russia's wins in the east reveal an important trend in the Ukraine war


The Russian military's successes in the east of Ukraine illuminate an important trend in this war: the Russians are starting to learn from their earlier failures, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia's wins in the east reveal an important trend in the Ukraine war
> 
> 
> The Russian military's successes in the east of Ukraine illuminate an important trend in this war: the Russians are starting to learn from their earlier failures, writes Mick Ryan.
> ...



The last paragraph:

_And despite recent Russian gains, the overall strategic balance still appears to favour Ukraine. They have significant reserves of personnel available. The Ukrainians have also demonstrated better tactical leadership, morale and strategic planning than the Russians._

The Ukrainians still don't seem have have deployed much of their tank park. Are they saving it for a bigger counteroffensive, do they not have enough troops to man them, or are they leery of a big, pitched battle?


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## SaparotRob (May 30, 2022)

I'm guessing they have the tanks. It's the large scale organized infantry, artillery and air support for a proper combined arms operation that go with it. Russia invaded 24 Feb. How long for assets to be trained, put in place and supported? I came up with about 118 M-777s, a dozen Cesar 155s, 40 122mm SPGs and 20 M-109s (from Ed Nash's Military Matters channel) enroute. I didn't count a lot of other stuff like a buttload of M-113s and towed howitzers. Does Soviet artillery have compatible trailer hitches for M-113s? 
I'm kind of hoping for a few squadrons of F-16s as well!


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## GrauGeist (May 31, 2022)

First of all (and most importantly), take what Biden says with a grain of salt.

The MLRS deal apoears to be going through, but the news outlets that are stating he won't are parroting Reuters (like Al Jazeera, The Guardian, et al).

As has been mentioned before, the political "speak" is like a disclaimer. Currently, American hardware has been effectively used to kill Russians. If Washington was truly "worried" about hurting Russia's feelings, they would have not provided lethal aid to Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

One of the missiles the MLRS shoots (it can shoot several different types) has a range of 500 km. I think Biden is leery of feeding arms into an exchange of missiles that will be targeting cities far behind the front. I'm not sure I agree with that rationale, if that is indeed what's going on behind the scenes. Bringing the war home to Russia might change public opinion there ... or might generate domestic support for any wider Russian mobilization. But Ukraine ought to be hitting what logistical nodes they can anywhere in Russia they can hit, imo. 



 SaparotRob
, I seem to remember a couple of hundred M113s being donated no too long ago. Perhaps they haven't made it over yet? At any rate, I'm not sure the Ukrainians can pull off a true combined-arms offensive given the weak state of their air force.

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## GrauGeist (May 31, 2022)

The Ukrainian military has had the ability to strike targets in Russia and Belarus this entire time.

Yet, they haven't.

They are not interested in anything but repelling the invaders off their land and that has been their primary focus since day one and I cannot see any reason why they'd change their focus.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukrainian military has had the ability to strike targets in Russia and Belarus this entire time.
> 
> Yet, they haven't.
> 
> They are not interested in anything but repelling the invaders off their land and that has been their primary focus since day one and I cannot see any reason why they'd change their focus.



Like I said, if that is indeed the rationale, I'm not sure I agree with it. Just pointing out one possible reason Biden seems to be dithering at what I think we all agree is a critical time.


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## RogerdeLluria (May 31, 2022)

Interesting UK assessment on Russian morale

If, besides low morale, we add T-62 tanks, and (so far unsubstantiated) reports that Russia is almost depleted of iskander missiles, maybe those optimists that claim that tides may turn in summer are actually right.

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## ThomasP (May 31, 2022)

A small number of the M113 are in the theater already (I do not know if any are currently deploying to the battlefield or if they are still being used to train at friendly country assembly points). The rest are in transit or still being brought up to operational status.

The 365 mile (500 km) range missile for the MLRS is not yet in service (I think).

There are logistics/training issues and there are transport/deployment issues, some systems being sent to Ukraine have issues in both categories.

One example is the US 155mm gun systems and the MLRS.

The shortest distance from a friendly (usable) entry point to the combat zone is ~200 miles from Romania to the Kherson area, along a fairly narrow route near the Black Sea coast. If the entry point is through Poland - or the north of Romania - the distance to the Kharkiv area is over 400 miles.

The M777 towed platform is small and relatively light. As such it can be towed by any reasonable size motor vehicle. This means it can be deployed via any road or reasonably solid terrain. Ammunition can also be transported in any reasonable size motor vehicle.

The M109 self propelled platform is large and heavy - plus it is problematic to deploy over large distances by road unless you have tank transporter tractor-trailer platforms. The only other way to transport them without potential maintenance and repair nightmares is by train. Both the tractor-trailer and train platforms limit the number of routes available for transport to the battlefront, thereby increasing the vulnerability to interdiction on the way. Ammunition can be transported in any reasonable size motor vehicle. The M109 also requires a more comprehensive training and logistics train.

The US high command understands this, and it is the reason they sent the M777 first, while the first US M109s are just now arriving in the neighboring countries. It takes time to train up and deploy (effectively) systems like these.

This reasoning is also part (most?) of the reason why M270 MLRS have not yet been sent. The M270 MLRS will have the same logistics/training and transport/deployment issues as the M109. Plus the problem of ammunition resupply is greater than for the M777 and M109 as the individual missiles are long/bulky and cannot be transported in anything smaller than ~2.5 ton trucks, although it may be possible to tow the missile packs on flatbed trailers using large pick-ups or utility vehicles.

In some circumstances the offensive capabilities of the M270 MLRS are a magnitude greater than for the M777 or M109. As such they will become prime targets for the Russian aircraft, drone, and missile platforms - and the Russians will try to destroy the MLRS platforms before they can reach the battlefield. I suspect they will come in 2nd in importance for destruction only after the destruction of the Ukrainian command structure (and maybe after the remaining Ukrainian air force, but I would not bet on it).

Incidentally, Denmark is also sending Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

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## Jagdflieger (May 31, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting UK assessment on Russian morale
> 
> If, besides low morale, we add T-62 tanks, and (so far unsubstantiated) reports that Russia is almost depleted of iskander missiles, maybe those optimists that claim that tides may turn in summer are actually right.
> 
> View attachment 671596


In all this war of statistics, one still needs to keep in mind as to what the "real" losses might be.

There are the Ukraine MoD stats and those of the UK assessment group - both more or less involved or committed towards propaganda (which off course is of utmost importance in view of keeping the Ukrainian moral up high)
Then there are stats provided by Western think-tanks (TT) e.g. CSIS/RAND etc. - many of them highly professional with direct info-ties to NATO, governments and intel agencies.

As of 28.05.2022
The Ukraine MoD reports ca. 31,000 Russian KIA
The TT's assess at average 12-15,000 Russian KIA

Needless to point out that conclusions deriving from such stats are bound to lead to wrong assessments of the RF's actual situation or Putin's assumed reactions.

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## J_P_C (May 31, 2022)

Here are interesting news from Kherson region - russians have moved here forces with T-62 tanks - probably moving more modern equipment to reinforce their Donbas offensive. As easy to expect Ukrainians correctly identified opportunity and their on the move - advancing. I wish them luck!

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## Admiral Beez (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Like I said, if that is indeed the rationale, I'm not sure I agree with it. Just pointing out one possible reason Biden seems to be dithering at what I think we all agree is a critical time.


Is Biden dithering though? What’s the source that long range capable weapons are being refused? We might be being trolled by the outrage machines.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> About the helicopter supply of Mariupol.
> "Flying two at a time and once four at a time, Ukrainian Mi-8 Hip helicopter crews braved dense Russian air defense and enemy aircraft concentrated in and around Mariupol to deliver desperately needed supplies and fresh troops to the defenders of the besieged Azovstal steel plant" .
> "Of the 16 total helicopters involved, two were destroyed... Another helicopter was destroyed coming to the rescue of one of the downed Hips"
> 
> ...


Probably, the first public video of one of those missions.

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## J_P_C (May 31, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Probably, the first public video of one of those missions.



this is what i'm calling "freaking low flying".....

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The last paragraph:
> 
> _And despite recent Russian gains, the overall strategic balance still appears to favour Ukraine. They have significant reserves of personnel available. The Ukrainians have also demonstrated better tactical leadership, morale and strategic planning than the Russians._
> 
> The Ukrainians still don't seem have have deployed much of their tank park. Are they saving it for a bigger counteroffensive, do they not have enough troops to man them, or are they leery of a big, pitched battle?


There are not many tanks in Ukraine. Probably, the units are thinly spread across the frontline and used carefully and only where anti-air defence is well developed. Russian helicopters are a serious threat. And small UAV like Orlan is ubiquitous, a real scourge of the Atlantic the Eastern Front.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

special ed said:


> One of the US national TV news reported last week that a second ship bringing food to Ukraine had been sunk in the Black Sea. There was no other mention on other networks, or any follow on news. I have seen no mention on this forum. More propaganda?


No information in Ukraine about that. The only shipping route to/from Ukraine is via the Danube and Romania's territorial waters. Probably, those were old news about the incidents near Odessa during the first days of the invasion. Russian Navy fired upon some cargo ships. At least one vessel was sunk (ironically, with a Russian crew). At least one tanker was seen smoking and drifting after being abandoned by the crew.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don't think a ship is needed to bring food to Ukraine, but instead the ships are needed to bring food out of Ukraine to the rest of us.



True. The western border of Ukraine is one huge logistical bottleneck now. The main seaports for Ukraine today are Constanta and Gdansk/Gdynia and they are congested because of the Ukrainian food exports. Logistic costs are sky-high.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

Zuzana and Zuzana. 
Both are welcome. Veľká vďaka !



https://mil.in.ua/en/news/zuzana-slovakia-officially-announces-transfer-of-acs-to-ukraine/










Slovak President Čaputová visits Kyiv


Zuzana Čaputová met with Ukraine's President Zelensky and addressed Ukrainian MPs.




spectator.sme.sk

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is Biden dithering though? What’s the source that long range capable weapons are being refused? We might be being trolled by the outrage machines.



I read it on Reuters and AP.

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## WARSPITER (May 31, 2022)

Are the Panzerhaubitz 2000 in Ukraine yet ?


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

_BRUSSELS, May 31 (Reuters) - European Union leaders have agreed an embargo on Russian oil imports that will start kicking in towards the end of the year and which exempts, for now, pipeline imports that Hungary and two other landlocked Central European states rely on.

The toughest sanction yet on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, agreed overnight after weeks of wrangling, aims to remove 90% of Russia's crude imports into the 27-nation bloc by year-end, senior officials said.

"The purpose is to stop Russia's aggressive war," Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins said.

Two-thirds of the Russian oil imported by the EU comes via tanker and one third through the Druzhba pipeline.

The ban on the seaborne imports will be imposed with a phase-in period of six months for crude oil and eight months for refined products, a European Commission spokesperson said._









EU agrees Russia oil embargo, gives Hungary exemptions; Zelenskiy vows more sanctions


European Union leaders have agreed an embargo on Russian crude oil imports that will take full effect by end-2022, but Hungary and two other landlocked Central European states secured exemptions for the pipeline imports they rely on.




www.reuters.com





These (and other) sanctions could provide leverage enough to prevent Russia from cementing any territorial gains, so long as they're held in place.

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

And --

_
May 30 (Reuters) - Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Washington's decision not to send Ukraine rocket systems that could reach into Russia was 'rational'.

President Joe Biden said on Monday that the United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia, after it was reported Washington was preparing to send advanced long-range rocket systems to Kyiv._









Russia's Medvedev calls Biden announcement on Ukraine rocket systems 'rational'


Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Washington's decision not to send Ukraine rocket systems that could reach into Russia was 'rational'.




www.reuters.com





No doubt the Russians are delighted about the decision.

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## Admiral Beez (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _BRUSSELS, May 31 (Reuters) - European Union leaders have agreed an embargo on Russian oil imports that will start kicking in towards the end of the year and which exempts, for now, pipeline imports that Hungary and two other landlocked Central European states rely on.
> 
> The toughest sanction yet on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, agreed overnight after weeks of wrangling, aims to remove 90% of Russia's crude imports into the 27-nation bloc by year-end, senior officials said.
> 
> ...


Until the Euros ban Russian natural gas this is all window dressing and virtue signaling. Russia can sell oil to the world market on ships, just the same as everyone else.


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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Until the Euros ban Russian natural gas this is all window dressing and virtue signaling. Russia can sell oil to the world market on ships, just the same as everyone else.



I think any money not going to Russia is useful. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

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## Jagdflieger (May 31, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Are the Panzerhaubitz 2000 in Ukraine yet ?


No, not yet - expected to arrive in Ukraine around mid-end of June incl. trained crews.
Biden has approved the delivery of MLRS to Ukraine - armament range restricted to 40miles (70km)

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## Thumpalumpacus (May 31, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Biden has approved the delivery of MLRS to Ukraine - armament range restricted to 40miles (70km)



Good, but I can't find a source for this yet. I wonder if they'll be sending the cluster type missiles? Those can blanket a large piece of ground with submunitions.

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## Jagdflieger (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Good, but I can't find a source for this yet. I wonder if they'll be sending the cluster type missiles? Those can blanket a large piece of ground with submunitions.











U.S. to supply Ukraine MLR systems with 70-km, not 300-km range


New batches of high-precision guided rockets for multiple launch systems the U.S. is going to supply to Ukraine won’t be able to strike deep into the Russian territory. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net





_A senior U.S. official said Monday that President Biden has not ruled out sending Ukraine the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS, and that no final decision has been made.
_
"Clarifying comments from POTUS administration on MLRS are more assuring. Ukraine will get new shipments of precision-guided missiles with longer ranges than Ukrainians have now, but not rockets that can strike deep into Russia," McFaul tweeted.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Are the Panzerhaubitz 2000 in Ukraine yet ?


Most probably not yet. Someone from the German government said recently that training was in progress.

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## Dimlee (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And --
> 
> 
> _May 30 (Reuters) - Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Washington's decision not to send Ukraine rocket systems that could reach into Russia was 'rational'.
> ...


Ukrainian border guard in Kharkiv or Sumy region can fire a Javeline rocket into the Russian territory any time when required.  And he will, no doubt.

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## ThomasP (May 31, 2022)

re the supplying of cluster munition warheads with the MLRS

That will depend on whether the Ukraine government gives the OK, as they are the ones who will have to deal with the hazards of leftover unexploded bomblets. (IMO they will give the OK.)

I do not know if Russia signed the international agreement to ban the use of cluster munitions, but since they have already used them against the Ukraine it no longer matters if Russia objects.

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## Admiral Beez (May 31, 2022)

Interesting. Internal dissent?









Ukraine: Putin chemical plant strike fills city with toxic fumes


A RUSSIAN airstrike has hit a nitric acid tank in Sievierodonetsk, spreading toxic fumes around the city of 100,000.




www.express.co.uk

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Interesting. Internal dissent?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I read the article and also one about a Russian ammo dump being hit, for the 22nd time. Any corroboration on that?


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## vikingBerserker (May 31, 2022)

I was not a fan of Boris, but I'd wish he was back.

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I seem to remember a couple of hundred M113s being donated no too long ago. Perhaps they haven't made it over yet?


According to here:









List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





A total of 99 M113s have been donated though as to how many are actually in theatre yet I don't know.

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

Sadly it appears that one of the Bushmasters Australia donated has already been lost:

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

Something I saw in an Australian news article which provides a partia, although useful snapshot of the amount of aid being provided:

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Does Soviet artillery have compatible trailer hitches for M-113s?


I don't recall ever seeing M113s towing anything anywhere.

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## Admiral Beez (May 31, 2022)

GTX said:


> I don't recall ever seeing M113s towing anything anywhere.


Yeah, I think that would block the rear access door. When I think of M113 and tow, I think of this....

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## RogerdeLluria (May 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read the article and also one about a Russian ammo dump being hit, for the 22nd time. Any corroboration on that?


According to Wikipedia, Chornobaivka was hit 20 times by May 15, so yeah its possible it has been hit for the 22nd time in late may.





2022 Chornobaivka attacks - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## RogerdeLluria (May 31, 2022)

For those who are into modelling.

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

Russia takes over 'around half' of vital east Ukrainian city, local authorities say


Ukrainian forces are continuing to resist a street-by-street Russian advance deep into a key eastern Ukrainian city as Russia warns it would retaliate against countries supplying long-range weapons to Kyiv.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

So now I'm wondering with what the UAF will move all the towed artillery. Is there enough vehicular capacity to move substantial numbers of howitzers? I'm sure the railroads can only take it just so far.


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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So now I'm wondering with what the UAF will move all the towed artillery. Is there enough vehicular capacity to move substantial numbers of howitzers? I'm sure the railroads can only take it just so far.


Lot to be said for good old trucks

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

I was really hoping someone would've posted "tractors".

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

US to give Ukraine new advanced rocket systems as Russia makes further gains in key city


US President Joe Biden agrees to provide Ukraine with advanced rocket systems that can strike with precision at long-range Russian targets as part of a new weapons package.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (May 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was really hoping someone would've posted "tractors".


Nah, their too busy towing other things

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## J_P_C (May 31, 2022)

war trophies?!?

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

Nah. I think it’s collecting the empties to get the bottle deposit back.

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## Jagdflieger (May 31, 2022)

GTX said:


> I don't recall ever seeing M113s towing anything anywhere.


Quite a lot of them in Vietnam towing L5 Howitzers - fuel tanks and e.g. KW45 generators also in Germany in the 60'ies till 80's on the way to maneuvers areas.
Why in the first place they send these obsolete APC's to Ukraine I wouldn't know - instead of e.g. Bradley's. For medivac an M113 is certainly useful.

One can also transport e.g. a L5 howitzer INSIDE an M113

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

M-113 may not be a first class combat vehicle but it's a tracked truck and there's a lot of them.

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## XBe02Drvr (May 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> M-113 may not be a first class combat vehicle but it's a tracked truck and there's a lot of them.


Calling an M113 an ARMORED Personnel Carrier is a bit of a stretch. At GE we were sent a couple VADS (Vulcan Air Defense Systems) that had been in Vietnam. The M113 chassis they were installed in had .50 cal and 12.7 MM holes right through the "armor" on one side, through the VADS magazine, and then out the other side. Side to side, and front to back, the rounds just went right through.
Armored? Not so much!

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## SaparotRob (May 31, 2022)

Again, it's a tracked truck and there's a lot of of them. I never called it an APC.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 1, 2022)

The Weasel is far better than a Toyota truck...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> According to here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the follow-up, bud.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

As an aside, I had been wondering how badly hurt were UAF supply chains. I know there were aviation losses from Russia's opening attacks. Did the UAF also suffer losses to their artillery regiments as well? Would their transport assets have been reduced as well? There's a lot of talk about these longer ranged towed howitzers. I was wondering what did the UAF get to tow them with? Then we start posting, among other things, all these M-113s. I thought that long range artillery wasn't towed directly up to enemy small arms range. I thought they'd be brought up to just out of Orc artillery range. Guess I was wrong. I wasn't positing the M-113 as a battle machine with anti aircraft guns/ anti aircraft missiles/ heavy machine guns/ air search radar/ etc bringing troops into battle. I just wondered if the damned things have a trailer hitch.


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## ThomasP (Jun 1, 2022)

re M113

The number of M113 being sent by the US to Ukraine is planned to be ~300. There were a few sent by air for use in training the operator and maintenance cadre personnel.

The FRONT of the M113 was supposed provide "protection" vs 12.7mm and 14.5mm AP - the rest of the vehicle was to provide "protection" vs 7.62mm AP and "commonly encountered" shrapnel.

The standard M113 is cleared to tow upto 14,500 lbs over 'reasonable terrain' (ie terrain where the towed item will not get bogged down) - the M777 155mm gun system weighs in at ~9,300 lbs so there should be no serious problems if they are used for this.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

So it could carry a ton or two of ammo as well as tow a field piece? And another one could transport its team better (roomier) than a BMP BTR or whatever those things are called? Cool. The old M-113 is still useful. Might even do a better job than a Toyota Hi Lux.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

If nothing else, using them to ferry troops cross-country to endangered spots could prove useful. The fact that they can perhaps tow a gun and its crew with one, and tow an ammo trailer with another, is a plus. I see their value as being their engines and tracks, not their (essentially nonexistent) armor or combat capability.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

A tracked truck.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> A tracked truck.



Right, as you pointed out upthread.

An M-113 won't strike fear into any heart, but the troops or guns it shuttles ... that could be another story. Working on interior lines, the Ukrainians could put these to good use.


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## ThomasP (Jun 1, 2022)

Addenda to my M113 post above, for all of us OCD types:

The hull of the M113 'Cheesebox' was originally constructed of an aluminum alloy very similar to 7075 'aircraft aluminum'. All of the hull was of 1.5" plate - except the floor which was of 1.25" plate. The front of the hull was sloped at 45° from the vertical so the protection was based on a 2.125" horizontal thickness. The sides were vertical, and the rear had a slight negative vertical slope as a simple way to allow the rear entry ramp to reliably fall open due to gravity (there was not enough slope to have any appreciable effect regarding protection).

The aluminum alloy used on the original M113 was ~40% as effective as quality homogeneous steel armour - by weight - vs typical HMG and LMG AP projectiles of the 1950s-60s era. Because of the typical tumbling of shrapnel, however, the thicker aluminum armour was actually more effective vs the shrapnel than an equivalent weight and geometry of steel homogeneous armour.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Something I saw in an Australian news article which provides a partia, although useful snapshot of the amount of aid being provided:
> 
> View attachment 671649


Those figures aren't really helpful - more kind of distorted - economic aid? military aid? a combination of both?
E.g. Germany - the monetary value of just the Gepard and PzH 2000 already add up to around $800+ million.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, as you pointed out upthread.
> 
> An M-113 won't strike fear into any heart, but the troops or guns it shuttles ... that could be another story. Working on interior lines, the Ukrainians could put these to good use.


To me it is about what Ukraine really needs and is asking for - certainly not M113's
Instead of NATO blowing away $, give them the heavy stuff they are actually asking for, e.g. 300 M113's (2000 standard) cost around the same as 100 today's Bradley's.


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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Calling an M113 an ARMORED Personnel Carrier is a bit of a stretch. At GE we were sent a couple VADS (Vulcan Air Defense Systems) that had been in Vietnam. The M113 chassis they were installed in had .50 cal and 12.7 MM holes right through the "armor" on one side, through the VADS magazine, and then out the other side. Side to side, and front to back, the rounds just went right through.
> Armored? Not so much!


Well an M113 is an APC and is used as such by numerous countries who don't face an artillery and armored opponent such as Russia. It isn't an AFV - but that is just what the UAF would need when conducting counterattacks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> To me it is about what Ukraine really needs and is asking for - certainly not M113's
> Instead of NATO blowing away $, give them the heavy stuff they are actually asking for, e.g. 300 M113's (2000 standard) cost around the same as 100 today's Bradley's.



Yeah, Bradleys would be better in this conflict by a long shot. Is the Bradley in any variant still in production?



Jagdflieger said:


> Well an M113 is an APC and is used as such by numerous countries who don't face an artillery and armored opponent such as Russia. It isn't an AFV - but that is just what the UAF would need when conducting counterattacks.



It's the mobility it provides that might matter, weak as it is otherwise.


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## ThomasP (Jun 1, 2022)

If your troops are killed by artillery shrapnel/blast effects on the way to the battle they won't have the chance to be killed by shrapnel/blast effects/bullets/bayonets/etc during the battle.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> If your troops are killed by artillery shrapnel/blast effects on the way to the battle they won't have the chance to be killed by shrapnel/blast effects/bullets/bayonets/etc during the battle.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> As an aside, I had been wondering how badly hurt were UAF supply chains. I know there were aviation losses from Russia's opening attacks. Did the UAF also suffer losses to their artillery regiments as well? Would their transport assets have been reduced as well? There's a lot of talk about these longer ranged towed howitzers. I was wondering what did the UAF get to tow them with? Then we start posting, among other things, all these M-113s. I thought that long range artillery wasn't towed directly up to enemy small arms range. I thought they'd be brought up to just out of Orc artillery range. Guess I was wrong. I wasn't positing the M-113 as a battle machine with anti aircraft guns/ anti aircraft missiles/ heavy machine guns/ air search radar/ etc bringing troops into battle. I just wondered if the damned things have a trailer hitch.


If I understood you correctly; there are two groups:
one being e.g. the M777 a towed howitzer - far more precise then the present Russian models the UAF has in use and far more versatile ammo available.
To tow these (100? M777) the UAF have certainly enough wheeled trucks to do the job. Fixed artillery are usually placed around 5-10mls behind a front-line. Thus reducing the firing range by that or whatever distance.
The other one are the self propelled Howitzers, e.g. PzH2000, M-109, or the French Caesar - having the important advantage of shot-change position-shot-and so on with immediate firing effect and almost no range reduction (not so much for the Caesar) - to move a M777 to another designated firing (e.g. 2mls off) emplacement, and to get it operational - takes an experienced crew at least 10-15 minutes. In practical usually 20 minutes.
Additionally a PzH2000 and an MLRS system are very capable/effective in counter artillery fire - due to their range they are able to take out the enemies artillery - a hugely important capability which presently the UAF totally lacks.

In that context; German chancellor Scholz today said; _The German government will supply Artillery radar detecting vehicles to Ukraine._
Most likely due to the PzH2000 and MLRS it will not be the ABRA system but the Cobra system. (detection range around 100km) and can detect up to 40 artillery emplacements within
2 minutes.
IMO systems such as the MLRS, (MARS II) PzH2000 (hopefully not just 11 pieces) and Cobra would indeed be a game-changer for the UAF - coupled with some 400-500 Bradley's - and Putin's present gains - wooosh...
But so far the aquited numbers aren't very inspiring - The USA is agreeing towards 16 and Germany towards 4 MLRS.

The main reason why the UAF want's Western stuff is also likely due to the issue that they are already running into ammo and maintenance problems for their Russian stuff. Already an issue in regards to the UAF Air-force.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah, Bradleys would be better in this conflict by a long shot. Is the Bradley in any variant still in production?


Not sure - but the jigs are all there to run up a production.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's the mobility it provides that might matter, weak as it is otherwise.


In that case I would certainly prefer NATO 4x4 up to 8x8 APC/AFV - faster, far more agile, more modern and far more economic.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Not sure - but the jigs are all there to run up a production.
> 
> In that case I would certainly prefer NATO 4x4 up to 8x8 APC/AFV - faster, far more agile, more modern and far more economic.



Agreed that more modern stuff, still in production as well, would be better,

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## hawkeye2an (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


>



At Least I'm Enjoyin' the Ride

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah, Bradleys would be better in this conflict by a long shot. Is the Bradley in any variant still in production?
> 
> 
> 
> It's the mobility it provides that might matter, weak as it is otherwise.



The BFV is not that great either. It originally was built with poor aluminum armor. The BFV today has more protection added to it, which has weighted it down an made it very under-powered.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The BFV is not that great either. It originally was built with poor aluminum armor. The BFV today has more protection added to it, which has weighted it down an made it very under-powered.


The Bradley might not be the best compared to e.g. Puma or the CV-90 - but only the US respectively the Bradley is available in numbers.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

Looks like Biden has changed his mind and is now sending long range rockets.









U.S. to Send Ukraine $700 Million in Military Aid, Including Advanced Rockets


A senior administration official said the rocket system was provided only after direct assurances by Ukraine’s leaders that they would not use it against targets in Russian territory.




www.nytimes.com





I find the dithering from the West most frustrating. If you’re supporting Ukraine, wanting them to fight the Russians on your behalf, presumably you’re wanting them to win. So give them whatever they want short of tactical nukes.

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

Better later than never. Better earlier than late... 
But anyway, danke schön !








Germany to send IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine


Germany will supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, following pleas from Kyiv and German opposition parties to step up heavy weapons deliveries.




www.reuters.com












IRIS-T - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

GTX said:


> Something I saw in an Australian news article which provides a partia, although useful snapshot of the amount of aid being provided:
> 
> View attachment 671649


I like this graph. Mighty Estonia is the champion.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Better later than never. Better earlier than late...
> But anyway, danke schön !
> 
> 
> ...



Did Germany ever send the Gepards? I fear the Germans are big on announcements but lacking in execution.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Germany ever send the Gepards? I fear the Germans are big on announcements but lacking in execution.


The UAF crews are being trained on them - simultaneously with others on the PzH 2000.
And just for general information; Germany since February 2022 has contributed more then $1,5 Billion towards Ukraine, with another 1.5 Billion coming up as soon as Poland and Germany agree onto the NATO-ring exchange for those 200 T... tanks that Poland forwarded to Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

A pox on the next Western leader or government official who calls for appeasement or a ceasefire without first demanding Russia exit Ukrainian territory.









West's "irrational fear" of Russia driving ceasefire push- Ukrainian negotiator


A Ukrainian presidential advisor and peace talks negotiator accused Europe and the United States of having an "irrational fear" of Russia in an interview released on Wednesday by news agency Interfax Ukraine.




www.reuters.com













Editorial: The Kyiv Independent's response to the New York Times editorial board


The New York Times editorial, “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” published on May 19, immediately caused an uproar in Ukraine. A veiled manifesto of appeasement from a newspaper known for its stellar coverage of Russia’s




kyivindependent.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> A pox on the next Western leader who calls for a ceasefire without first demanding Russian exit Ukrainian territory.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Stop him now or stop him later.

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## Denniss (Jun 1, 2022)

Most of Gepards were in storage, own by the arms industry. No idea how many of them were actually servicable and how long it takes to get the others servicable. Same for the stored Leo1/2

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Germany ever send the Gepards? I fear the Germans are big on announcements but lacking in execution.


Didnt send anything. Not even small arms.


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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Didnt send anything. Not even small arms.


Source please!! 
as I had written already earlier on Germany has already contributed $1,5 billion to Ukraine with a further 1,5 billion in the pipeline.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Germany has already contributed $1,5 billion to Ukraine with a further 1,5 billion in the pipeline.


Money isn't arms. What lethal aid has Germany provided to date?


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## GrauGeist (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Money isn't arms. What lethal aid has Germany provided to date?


So far, all I've heard Germany actually providing, are MGs and ammunition, grenades, AA rockets and I believe seven SP Howitzers...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Biden has changed his mind and is now sending long range rockets.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



... AND you stop this goddamned public hand-wringing. That can only undercut Ukrainian morale, and that is probably their most important weapon. Stop undermining it!

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Money isn't arms. What lethal aid has Germany provided to date?


Still waiting for Snautzer01 source.
I am very well aware of what military aid Germany has given so far - (anyone can check this more or less on the internet) it certainly isn't nothing (as I mentioned around $1,5 billion) and aid isn't just arms - how much do you think those almost 600,000 Ukrainian refugees in Germany cost?
We are talking about minimum $500 million a month, or should we just send them back?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

A good vid today of a Russian column under attack. Though they appear to miss?

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Germany ever send the Gepards? I fear the Germans are big on announcements but lacking in execution.


Postponed until July, as far as I know. Problems with ammunition were mentioned.


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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

Hack them all, Paul. And thank you.








US military hackers conducting offensive operations in support of Ukraine, says head of Cyber Command


In an exclusive interview with Sky News, General Paul Nakasone confirmed for the first time that the US had "conducted a series of operations" in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




news.sky.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So far, all I've heard Germany actually providing, are MGs and ammunition, grenades, AA rockets and I believe seven SP Howitzers...


Also anti-tank rockets and mines. Some number of Panzerhaubitze 2000 will be delivered after the training is completed.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> how much do you think those almost 600,000 Ukrainian refugees in Germany cost?
> We are talking about minimum $500 million a month, or should we just send them back?


I thought we were discussing Military Aid, not Humanitarian Aid...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 1, 2022)

Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next


Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...


Frightening.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Frightening.



I’m sure its just saber rattling. Of course, who knows how Putler will act the closer he gets to taking his last breath.

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Better later than never. Better earlier than late...
> But anyway, danke schön !
> 
> 
> ...



But the systems are not available. It will take months...
Google translated:
_"The federal government has dampened expectations that the Iris-T air defense system announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will be quickly delivered to Ukraine. "Yes, that takes months," said Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) on Wednesday in the Bundestag. Accordingly, the system manufactured by the Diehl armaments company should actually "go to another country". At the request of the federal government, it is now being delivered to Ukraine."_








Russischer Friedensnobelpreisträger Muratow versteigert Medaille für Ukrainer - WELT


Der russische Journalist Dmitri Muratow lässt die Medaille seines Friedensnobelpreises versteigern. Der Erlös soll ukrainischen Flüchtlingen zugute kommen. Muratow ist Chefredakteur der kremlkritischen Zeitung „Nowaja Gaseta“ und kritisiert scharf Wladimir Putins Krieg. Mehr im Liveticker.




www.welt.de

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...



From this article:

_On the state TV show 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva announced: "I have some unpleasant news... Even though we are methodically destroying the weapons that are being delivered [to Ukraine], but the quantities in which the United States are sending them force us to come up with some global conclusions. Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that maybe Russia's special operation in Ukraine has come to an end, in a sense that a real war had started: WWIII. We're forced to conduct the demilitarization not only of Ukraine, but of the entire NATO alliance."_

Your forces seem to have their hands full at the moment, pal. Best not to be counting your chickens before they hatch.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m sure its just saber rattling. Of course, who knows how Putler will act the closer he gets to taking his last breath.


The Russians can't tackle Ukraine, how can they think they can next or even simultaneously invade Poland and the Baltic Reps? NATO would stomp them. 

One thing this does is likely expedite Finland and Sweden to join NATO. When will that take effect?

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...


They are losing contact with reality. Maybe, it's not bad.
Hermann Goering was not stupid, but at a certain point, he began to talk about Americans who were able to make refrigerators and razors but not airplanes...

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians can't tackle Ukraine, how can they think they can next or even simultaneously invade Poland and the Baltic Reps? NATO would stomp them.
> 
> One thing this does is likely expedite Finland and Sweden to join NATO. When will that take effect?


Has any deal been cut with Taycep yet?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians can't tackle Ukraine.



You really think Putler believes that?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> They are losing contact with reality. Maybe, it's not bad.
> Hermann Goering was not stupid, but at a certain point, he began to talk about Americans who were able to make refrigerators and razors but not airplanes...



And thats the problem 
A
 Admiral Beez
, when someone looses contact with reality they will act irrationally.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Has any deal been cut with Taycep yet?



The news I've read the last couple of days, it seems like he's dug his heels in more. His demands seem to be the extradition of some Kurds to his jurisdiction and dropping the arms-embargo. I'm not sure, personally, whether both these conditions can or will be met.

At this point, Putin may as well have a seat in Brussels.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The news I've read the last couple of days, it seems like he's dug his heels in more. His demands seem to be the extradition of some Kurds to his jurisdiction and dropping the arms-embargo. I'm not sure, personally, whether both these conditions can or will be met.
> 
> At this point, Putin may as well have a seat in Brussels.


Turkey's always been a useless ally and pseudo-European rump. The Brits and allies should have kept both sides of the Bosporus in 1919.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Turkey's always been a useless ally and pseudo-European rump. The Brits and allies should have kept both sides of the Bosporus in 1919.



Agree with your first point, not sure about the second. Turkey's always been a problem child, but retaining the Straits may well have pushed Turkey into Germany's arms for WWII, which would likely change both the war in the Med as well as Germany's supply of rare metals needed for their armaments factories.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

Regarding German lethal support for Ukraine:

_Scholz said Germany had been "delivering continuously since the beginning of the war", pointing to more than 15 million rounds of ammunition, 100,000 grenades and over 5,000 anti-tank mines sent to Ukraine since Russia invaded it on Feb. 24._









Germany to send IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine


Germany will supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T air defence system, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, following pleas from Kyiv and German opposition parties to step up heavy weapons deliveries.




www.reuters.com





Ammo's very useful in a war. Could they do more? Probably. But they've got their hands full respooling their own production for their own forces, I think. Corrections, as always, are welcomed.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

If I recall correctly, Germany had been under budget militarily for a while. It’s not like they had whole lot to give away to begin with.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

Is there a way around a recalcitrant NATO member? Or is it like the UN Security Council?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is there a way around a recalcitrant NATO member? Or is it like the UN Security Council?



There's no way to override Turkey's veto, no. Of course, we could always make it plain that this will be remembered if Turkey ever has to appeal to Article Five.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

Unfortunately, NATO just might keep up its end of the deal.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Unfortunately, NATO just might keep up its end of the deal.



Never play hardball with a softball.

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## GTX (Jun 1, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Quite a lot of them in Vietnam towing L5 Howitzers - fuel tanks and e.g. KW45 generators also in Germany in the 60'ies till 80's on the way to maneuvers areas.
> Why in the first place they send these obsolete APC's to Ukraine I wouldn't know - instead of e.g. Bradley's. For medivac an M113 is certainly useful.
> 
> One can also transport e.g. a L5 howitzer INSIDE an M113


Thanks - first I have seen M113s towing anything. Mind you, the first image is not towing but rather putting the howitzer inside the M113.


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## GTX (Jun 1, 2022)

'They are truly bastards': Russia's seemingly random strategy might have a devilishly clever purpose


Despite a declaration that the battle for Kharkiv had been won by Ukraine, shelling by Russia's military continues, diverting Ukrainian resources away from the key fight for Donbas.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...


Same basic story here:



https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/a-real-war-has-started-russian-state-media-warns-nato-nations-against-assisting-ukraine/news-story/474ebd1453948a6ffe26de9e7c69f99f

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Never play hardball with a softball.


NATO must enforce article 5 when ever is called. Otherwise NATO would be useless and there would be no incentive to be a member.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Editorial: The Kyiv Independent's response to the New York Times editorial board
> 
> 
> The New York Times editorial, “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” published on May 19, immediately caused an uproar in Ukraine. A veiled manifesto of appeasement from a newspaper known for its stellar coverage of Russia’s
> ...


Amén

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## wlewisiii (Jun 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> A pox on the next Western leader or government official who calls for appeasement or a ceasefire without first demanding Russia exit Ukrainian territory.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't ever be surprised by the Times. They've been on a hard turn to the right since the Bush administration. They've been reverting back to the same paper that apologized for Hitler and pushed appeasement and isolationism. 

Thankfully, unlike 1940, the majority of Americans can see through the lies and the propaganda.


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## Snautzer01 (Jun 1, 2022)

We are talking weapons not aid. Germany is generous in aid. On the other hand the state of the wehr isnt so they can spare anything i think.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...


wow...do they honestly beleive what they are saying or even yet unserstand the gravity of their statements??

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin TV Names the Country Putin Will Invade Next
> 
> 
> Omar Marques/GettyWhile some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target. On the state TV...
> ...


This one is a great part:

"*accusing numerous unnamed countries of* “*actively working to dismember Ukraine.”*"

Maybe we could help. Could Rusia and Bielorrusia be those unnamed countries? 🤔

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## Dimlee (Jun 1, 2022)

Not F-16 yet, but I don't complain. 








EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources


The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...do they honestly beleive what they are saying or even yet unserstand the gravity of their statements??


I doubt anything they say is original. They are following the script.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I doubt anything they say is original. They are following the script.


But their rhetoric about Poland smells alot like 1939...

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## ThomasP (Jun 1, 2022)

Be careful, never underestimate the ability of a True Believer to hold on to their belief.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 1, 2022)

I particularly like the line about Napoleon and Hitler, that “all of Europe came at us” on both occasions. Really? My Great x3 Granddad was fighting Napoleon’s army in Spain at the time Napoleon was attacking Russia….so, no, all of Europe was NOT coming after Russia. Then there’s Hitler and, again, Britain was helping Russia fight against a common foe.

The ability to mis-state history is simply amazing.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 1, 2022)

Don't bother people with facts!

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## wlewisiii (Jun 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I particularly like the line about Napoleon and Hitler, that “all of Europe came at us” on both occasions. Really? My Great x3 Granddad was fighting Napoleon’s army in Spain at the time Napoleon was attacking Russia….so, no, all of Europe was NOT coming after Russia. Then there’s Hitler and, again, Britain was helping Russia fight against a common foe.
> 
> The ability to mis-state history is simply amazing.


Hey, it was happening at the same time the Germans were attacking Pearl Harbor!

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## special ed (Jun 1, 2022)

Russia has always been a master of semantics. In 1952, to celebrate Russia's new Ziv or Zim or whatever, they announced a trans Siberia race to Moscow and included a new 1952 Ford. The results were the Zim came in second while the Ford placed next to last. There were only two cars in the race.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> We are talking weapons not aid. Germany is generous in aid. On the other hand the state of the wehr isnt so they can spare anything i think.


You stated that Germany has send "nothing" in regards to military aid - a statement that is blatantly wrong.
There are two military sources in regards to providing aid to Ukraine
1. Direct supplies from e.g. Germany to Ukraine - which Germany has done and is doing.
2. NATO ring-exchange - e.g. Polish tanks (230 T-72M/M1R) to Ukraine - replaced(paid) for by Germany via supplying Poland with Leo II tanks.
As for 2. Germany has and is doing far more then the public knows or is aware off - NATO ring-exchange Germany's contribution/commitment has already exceed $2 Billion.
And aside from present negotiations with Greece and others all these NATO ring exchange weapons (entirely former Warsaw pact countries) have all arrived in Ukraine in the past month and weeks. Poland has agreed to send in total 60 Krab systems to Ukraine - again via NATO-ring exchange and again mostly covered by Germany and the UK.

Unfortunately there is disharmony right know between Poland and Germany due to Poland having send the tanks before details had been agreed onto by both parties.
E.g. Britain had agreed to replace Polish hardware with Challenger tanks - however so far they have only send Challenger tanks manned by British Army personal and being stationed 
in Poland - not handed over any tank - somehow the media doesn't gang up on that issue but prefers to bash around onto Germany. 

So is it just your personal misinformed opinion, or deriving from some "strange" source?

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If I recall correctly, Germany had been under budget militarily for a while. It’s not like they had whole lot to give away to begin with.


Difficult to precise at this time.
In the past 3 decades the average GDP% for defense has been at around 1.3%. Mostly due to Germany having to cough up 2 trillion Euro for it's reunification costs.
In 2021 the defense budget had risen by 3% to 47 billion Euro - so still at 1.3% of GDP

Since the Ukraine war, a special reserve fund was allocated to the defense budget, adding up to 100 billion Euro. Some of this fund had already been tapped to finance the NATO ring exchange program costs.
How much of this 100 billion Euro reserve fund and over what time frame this fund will be tapped into is presently unknown.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> NATO must enforce article 5 when ever is called. Otherwise NATO would be useless and there would be no incentive to be a member.



Perhaps. But NATO also has requirements for maintaining a democratic outlook and so on.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Hey, it was happening at the same time the Germans were attacking Pearl Harbor!

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## fubar57 (Jun 2, 2022)

​

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## at6 (Jun 2, 2022)

The Kremlin suggestion of targeting Poland comes as no surprise. As for Turkey,Tell them Finland and Sweden come in or they go out. Erdogan has never been a reliable partner and has way too close ties to Putin. Anyone believing that Turkey is reliable would stitch a penis to a sow and expect piglets.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> The Kremlin suggestion of targeting Poland comes as no surprise. As for Turkey,Tell them Finland and Sweden come in or they go out. Erdogan has never been a reliable partner and has way too close ties to Putin. Anyone believing that Turkey is reliable would stitch a penis to a sow and expect piglets.


Maybe you should enter the exclusive circle of Head of States

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## GrauGeist (Jun 2, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe you should enter the exclusive circle of Head of States


I'll be your huckleberry, but there's a boat-load of nations that would *not* like what I have to say...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> As for Turkey,Tell them Finland and Sweden come in or they go out. Erdogan has never been a reliable partner and has way too close ties to Putin. Anyone believing that Turkey is reliable would stitch a penis to a sow and expect piglets.



There is no process for evicting a NATO member. None.

While I share your antipathy to Erdogan, NATO can't simply tell Turkey to get lost, because that is not written into the treaty anywhere. I've read opinions stating that NATO could _de facto_ ignore Turkey, essentially ghosting the nation, but that still wouldn't result in a _de jure_ expulsion, and wouldn't remove Turkey's veto power.


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## GrauGeist (Jun 2, 2022)

Erdogan is playing a stupid game.

Aside from moving away from Attaturk's vision within his country, he's moving away from his nation's mission as a member of NATO.

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## at6 (Jun 2, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe you should enter the exclusive circle of Head of States


Too many nations would hate my actions and they wouldn't want the ear full that they would get.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Erdogan is playing a stupid game.
> 
> Aside from moving away from Attaturk's vision within his country, he's moving away from his nation's mission as a member of NATO.



With elections coming up in a year, I suspect he's playing to a domestic audience. Strongmen gotta strong, and all that. "I told NATO to hammer sand, in order to save you from Kurds" will probably be a feature in his campaigning.

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## at6 (Jun 2, 2022)

It's a shame that there was no provision for eliminating a member that no longer met the criteria for membership. Failing to meet EU criteria tells you a lot about Erdogan and Turkey.

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## at6 (Jun 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> With elections coming up in a year, I suspect he's playing to a domestic audience. Strongmen gotta strong, and all that. "I told NATO to hammer sand, in order to save you from Kurds" will probably be a feature in his campaigning.


You just know that he will "win by a landslide".

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> You just know that he will "win by a landslide".



Right, he's got his thumb on the spool in a lot of different ways, hence my comment upthread about NATO requiring members to be democratic. He's no devotee of democracy, the way I'm reading it.

He's getting ready to assail the Kurds -- American allies in the fight against ISIS -- as well. Far as I'm concerned, a long walk off'n a short pier would be called-for, but again, NATO has no way of expelling the nation.


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## ThomasP (Jun 2, 2022)

re NATO expelling/suspending a member nation

The reasoning on the matter from NATO during its founding and from a bit later:

"Can Turkey be Expelled from NATO? It's Legally Possible, Whether or Not Politically Prudent"

This is a link to the NATO founding treaty (aka Washington Treaty) as initiated in 1949

"https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl.../20161122_E1-founding-treaty-original-tre.pdf"


re Turkey and its behavior re its NATO obligations

Although I agree that what is going on with is disappointing, we have to take into account their prior relationship with Russia - at least to a fair degree. Their position relative to Russia is similar to Germany's in terms of economics and natural gas supply. And regardless of Turkey's commitment to NATO, Erdogan's first and primary responsibility is to the welfare of the people/nation of Turkey.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

Thanks for the link, 
T
 ThomasP
. It' about bed-thirty here, so I can't read it tonight, but just wanted you to know your legwork is not unappreciated.


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## Snautzer01 (Jun 2, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> You stated that Germany has send "nothing" in regards to military aid - a statement that is blatantly wrong.
> There are two military sources in regards to providing aid to Ukraine
> 1. Direct supplies from e.g. Germany to Ukraine - which Germany has done and is doing.
> 2. NATO ring-exchange - e.g. Polish tanks (230 T-72M/M1R) to Ukraine - replaced(paid) for by Germany via supplying Poland with Leo II tanks.
> ...











Duitsland verdeeld over wapenleveranties


Scholz verdedigde zondag met verve zijn besluit om nu toch zware wapens te leveren aan Oekraïne.




duitslandinstituut.nl












Waarom Duitsland geen zware wapens naar Oekraïne stuurt


Steeds meer Europese landen sturen zware wapens naar Oekraïne. Zo ook Nederland. Maar uit Duitsland blijft het stil. Het machtigste land van Europa zit met de kwestie in zijn maag. En dat heeft te maken met naweeën van de Tweede Wereldoorlog.




www.rtlnieuws.nl








__





Loading…






www.google.com

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Duitsland verdeeld over wapenleveranties
> 
> 
> Scholz verdedigde zondag met verve zijn besluit om nu toch zware wapens te leveren aan Oekraïne.
> ...


Okay it's in Dutch and both are opinionated articles in regards to Germany's position in regards to supplying heavy weapons (article April and May) towards Ukraine.
So basically already outdated and nowhere in these articles is it mentioned that Germany hasn't send any weapons to Ukraine.

Here is a partial overview: (actually common knowledge within the www)

2.500 Luftabwehrraketen
900 Panzerfäuste mit 3.000 Schuss Munition
2450 Panzerabwehrhandwaffen vom Typ RGW 90, auch "Matador" genannt
1600 DM22-Panzerabwehrrichtminen
3000 DM31-Panzerabwehrminen
100 Maschinengewehre
15 Bunkerfäuste mit 50 Raketen
100.000 Handgranaten
2.000 Minen
5.300 Sprengladungen
16 Millionen Schuss Munition
Unbestimmte Anzahl an Drohnen
Unbestimmte Anzahl an Fahrzeugen
etc.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 2, 2022)

but not the promised heavy stuff.


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## Denniss (Jun 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> but not the promised heavy stuff.


Please inform yourself. Most of the heavier stuff comes out of storage from the weapons industry which they now have to get servicable. AFAIR the Ukrainians are already training with the Panzerhaubitze 2000, possible on some Gepards too. Don't know if Leo 1s are sent/wanted.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 2, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Please inform yourself. Most of the heavier stuff comes out of storage from the weapons industry which they now have to get servicable. AFAIR the Ukrainians are already training with the Panzerhaubitze 2000, possible on some Gepards too. Don't know if Leo 1s are sent/wanted.











Germany says it will send heavy weapons to Ukraine, after criticism for holding back in line with Putin's aims


Leaked documents revealed that Germany had hardly been sending any weapons to Ukraine. The next day, it made new commitments.




www.businessinsider.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 2, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> ​



Monty Python didn't foresee that:








Replica Reichstag stormed at Russian 'military Disneyland'


Defence minister among 5,000 spectators at Patriot Park for re-enactment of Red Army’s capture of Berlin landmark in 1945




www.theguardian.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 2, 2022)

Ukraine's losses estimate by Zelensky.
_"we're losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action..."








Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Newsmax: We're the World's 'Defensive Perimeter'


Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Newsmax through a translator in an exclusive sit-down interview in Kyiv on Tuesday.




www.newsmax.com




_
So far, the KIA numbers remain classified. Zelensky mentioned approximate figures several times. Just off the top of my head: about 200 on the second day of the invasion, about 1,300 in the middle of March and about 3,000 in the middle of April.

Of all the services, only NGU (National Guard) reported their losses once on 11th May: KIA 501, WIA 1697. NGU is about 3 times smaller than the Army and does not participate in all operations.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> but not the promised heavy stuff.


Come on enough of this nonsense.

Firstly you stated that Germany hasn't send any weapons - obviously you have been mistaken.
Now you bring in the promised heavy stuff: what *promised *heavy stuff isn't coming?

Ukraine had forwarded a $300 million weapons request to Germany in March, which included tanks. Off this request around $150 worth of weapons were supplied to Ukraine in March and April. So how many tanks do you think one can buy for 150 million? (around 50 T-72's or 7 Leo II A7) Therefore the UK and Germany brokered the deal with Poland to "immediately" supply Ukraine with 230 T-72 MBT's.

Then Germany to the great surprise of Ukraine proposed to send 50 Gepard's - End of March. Short off ammunition it took almost 7 weeks to settle this issue.
For your information a serviced and upgraded Gepard by KMW/Rheinmetall with spares and ammo costs around 3 million euro a piece.

End of April Germany informed Ukraine that they can deliver 11 PzH2000 from present NATO units (buying 4 from Netherlands and 7 coming from Germany)
From March to May, Germany making use of the NATO ring-exchange send numerous heavy stuff to Ukraine via Bulgarian, Slovakian and Czechia inventory incl. MBT, APC/AFV, artillery
and SAM systems.
And keep in mind that NATO only acquitted towards sending MLRS on 1st of June. Modern tanks from NATO inventory are still a taboo.
The 100 Leo 1A4 (build 1980) were dropped by Ukraine - luckily they understood the huge challenge to train, maintain and logistically make use of 100 totally outdated tanks.

The Ukrainians started training on the Gepard and PzH2000 from 9th respectively 16th of May onward.
So what promised heavy stuff did Germany not send, respectively agree to?

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## Jerad (Jun 2, 2022)

Not much, but better than nothing.

_WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said._









EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources


The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Monty Python didn't foresee that:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Steiner will turn it around.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 2, 2022)

Jerad said:


> Not much, but better than nothing.
> 
> _WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said._


This seems like the low hanging fruit that should have been sent to Ukraine in March. Why the hold up?

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 2, 2022)

Good question!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

Perhaps we thought at first that simply supplying Ukraine with surveillance results from the Grey Eagles would be fine, but believe for whatever reason that it's better for Ukraine to be operating them directly?

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## SaparotRob (Jun 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This seems like the low hanging fruit that should have been sent to Ukraine in March. Why the hold up?


Perhaps there was a fear that giving anything to Ukraine in early March would be essentially handing it over to Russia. Who knew?

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## GrauGeist (Jun 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Monty Python didn't foresee that:
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

_STOCKHOLM, June 2 (Reuters) - Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday.

"The proposals that are submitted (to parliament) mean that allocated funds for the central government budget will increase by SEK 1.0 billion ($102 million) in 2022," the Nordic country's finance ministry said in a statement.


"In solidarity with Ukraine, and as part of the international response to Russia's actions, the government sees a continuing need to support Ukraine," it said.

Sweden in February announced it would send military materiel including 5,000 anti-tank weapons, helmets and body armour to Ukraine, and in March announced it would send another 5,000 anti-tank weapons. 

($1 = 9.7963 Swedish crowns)_









Sweden to supply more military aid including anti-ship missiles to Ukraine


Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday.




www.reuters.com





_
June 2 (Reuters) - Russia is currently occupying about 20% of Ukraine's territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Luxembourg's parliament in a video address on Thursday.

"We have to defend ourselves against almost the entire Russian army. All combat-ready Russian military formations are involved in this aggression," he said, adding that the front lines of battle stretched across more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles)._









Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine's territory- Zelenskiy


Russia is currently occupying about 20% of Ukraine's territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Luxembourg's parliament in a video address on Thursday.




www.reuters.com





Also, Reuters reports that the Kremlin confirms the resignation of Valentin Yumashev, Yeltsin's son-in-law.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> .








Proof that the Nazis could time-travel!

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## at6 (Jun 2, 2022)

One thing that seems to be absent lately would be news as to treatment of the Ukrainian forces taken prisoner in Mariupol. I would suspect that the Russians may have done what they were threatening do at the beginning of the siege by executing them secretly.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 2, 2022)

That is basically late 80s-early 90s technology.








Taiwan Restricts Russia, Belarus to CPUs Under 25 MHz Frequency


No more Taiwan-made CPUs, microcontrollers for Russia and Belarus.




www.tomshardware.com





Seems sanctions do something, although quietly.





Subscribe to read | Financial Times


News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




www.ft.com

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## Glider (Jun 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _STOCKHOLM, June 2 (Reuters) - Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday.
> 
> "The proposals that are submitted (to parliament) mean that allocated funds for the central government budget will increase by SEK 1.0 billion ($102 million) in 2022," the Nordic country's finance ministry said in a statement.
> 
> ...


All I can say is that if Putin thought he could scare the Swedes from joining NATO, he must be really pissed with them now

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## GrauGeist (Jun 2, 2022)

Russia and Sweden have not got along historically, spanning between the 12th and 19th centuries, which also resulted in Sweden losing considerable territory (including modern Finland), along the way.

I can't see Sweden losing any sleep over what Russia thinks...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 2, 2022)

Intercepted audio shows 2 Russian officers cursing out Putin and other commanders in charge of the Ukraine invasion


In audio recordings obtained by Radio Svoboda, senior Russian military officers can be heard bad-mouthing those in charge of the Ukraine invasion.




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted audio shows 2 Russian officers cursing out Putin and other commanders in charge of the Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> In audio recordings obtained by Radio Svoboda, senior Russian military officers can be heard bad-mouthing those in charge of the Ukraine invasion.
> ...


That cheered me up today!

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> ...


Apparently that link didn't work. Summary follows.

'Everything is gone': Russian business hit hard by tech sanctionsExport controls placed on supply of chips and hardware over Ukraine war dent economy's prospects

Russian companies have been plunged into a technological crisis by western sanctions that have created severe bottlenecks in the supply of semiconductors, electrical equipment and the hardware needed to power the nation's data centres.

Since sanctions came into force, Russia's main cloud service groups — Yandex, VK Cloud Solutions and SberCloud — have experienced a surge in demand for their services because most Russian companies are no longer willing to host their applications in data centres abroad, according to analysts at marketing intelligence group IDC. VK Cloud Solutions wrote to the Kremlin last month requesting urgent help to find "tens of thousands of servers", according to local media reports. Domestic companies are no longer able to source these from Western companies, and a shortage of the advanced chips that go into servers is preventing Russian IT manufacturers from ramping up production of their own.

With the country unable to export much of its raw materials, import critical goods or access global financial markets, economists expect Russia's gross domestic product to contract by as much as 15 per cent this year.

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## Dimlee (Jun 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _STOCKHOLM, June 2 (Reuters) - Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday.
> 
> "The proposals that are submitted (to parliament) mean that allocated funds for the central government budget will increase by SEK 1.0 billion ($102 million) in 2022," the Nordic country's finance ministry said in a statement.
> 
> ...


Robot 17. Short ranged but very compact. 
Good Swedish robot, tack så mycket.








Sweden To Provide Robot 17 Missiles to Ukraine - Overt Defense


While the US decision to transfer M142 HIMARS to Ukraine will undoubtedly overshadow Sweden’s latest Ukrainian aid announcement the Swedish package is significant. At a joint press conference earlier today… Continue reading "Sweden To Provide Robot 17 Missiles to Ukraine"




www.overtdefense.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 2, 2022)

at6 said:


> One thing that seems to be absent lately would news as to treatment of the Ukrainian forces taken prisoner in Mariupol. I would suspect that the Russians may have done what they were threatening do at the beginning of the siege by executing them secretly.


In Ukraine, there is a kind of self-imposed embargo on the news about POWs of Mariupol. Officials say that negotiations continue.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted audio shows 2 Russian officers cursing out Putin and other commanders in charge of the Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> In audio recordings obtained by Radio Svoboda, senior Russian military officers can be heard bad-mouthing those in charge of the Ukraine invasion.
> ...


I'm guessing Russia is about to lose another colonel

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## Glider (Jun 2, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I'm guessing Russia is about to lose another colonel


I have to admit. Hearing a Russian senior officer compare the invasion to the Russian / Finland war which I believe isn't taught in Russia. Says a lot about the losses and general confusion so evident in the initial weeks of the invasion of Ukraine.

I did like the bit at the end when they contacted these people and played the tapes back to them

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## GTX (Jun 2, 2022)

Zelenskyy says Russia controls one fifth of Ukraine , while US targets yachts linked to Putin


President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia currently occupies about 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, as Russian forces continue to pound towns and cities, tightening their grip on Luhansk province.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 2, 2022)

A different sort of story from the war:









These Ukrainian soldiers wear a unicorn patch on their uniforms — because they're not supposed to exist


In 2014, as Ukraine tried to prevent Russia annexing the Crimean Peninsula, "lots of people said there are no gay people in the army". Now LGBTQ Ukrainians signing up to fight are donning insignia showing a mythical creature.




www.abc.net.au

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## ThomasP (Jun 2, 2022)

LOL 🤣

While I was reading one of the linked articles a pop-up ad popped up with the words "What are 4 early signs of dementia" and my mind without hesitation supplied the answer "invading Ukraine must be one". The fact that the pop-up popped up right under a picture of Putin in the article probably helped the word association test.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 2, 2022)

Subliminal messaging.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted audio shows 2 Russian officers cursing out Putin and other commanders in charge of the Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> In audio recordings obtained by Radio Svoboda, senior Russian military officers can be heard bad-mouthing those in charge of the Ukraine invasion.
> ...



Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn served eight years in _gulags_ and a _sharashka_ for doing this very same thing, via handwritten letter. An artillery officer in 1945, upon return home he spent that time in camps, and then another five years in internal exile.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Apparently that link didn't work. Summary follows.
> 
> 'Everything is gone': Russian business hit hard by tech sanctionsExport controls placed on supply of chips and hardware over Ukraine war dent economy's prospects
> 
> ...


Those poor Kremlin trolls.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 2, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Jun 2, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Jun 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Now that’s timely tech support. Take that Apple service dept!

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 2, 2022)

From a renown Western Media outlet's article with photo:

Headline: Russian troops move into Sjewjerodonezk

Is there something going on that we all don't know about?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Cell-phones are weapons too!

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## J_P_C (Jun 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> From a renown Western Media outlet's article with photo:
> 
> Headline: Russian troops move into Sjewjerodonezk


by todays reports - looks like they have moved directly in to the Ukrainian ambush....

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## J_P_C (Jun 3, 2022)

hahahhaahaha - i just noticed  "renown western media" - looks like russians are not only driving Leo2 A6, but also wearing Bundeswehr uniforms

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## GrauGeist (Jun 3, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> From a renown Western Media outlet's article with photo:
> 
> Headline: Russian troops move into Sjewjerodonezk


Last time the Germans were in Ukraine, they were using PzKfw IV and PzKfw VI tanks - perhaps you might want to recheck your source?

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## WARSPITER (Jun 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Last time the Germans were in Ukraine, they were using PzKfw IV and PzKfw VI tanks - perhaps you might want to recheck your source?


The IV and VI are no longer used as they don't have cup holders or airbags.

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## ThomasP (Jun 3, 2022)

The M109 155mm SP platforms are beginning to deploy in Ukraine

First of the Norwegian ACS M109A3GN arrived a few days ago in Ukraine.

"Ukraine fires with 155mm Norwegian M109: 40km range, .50-cal M2 MG"

Ukraine is buying refurbished M109 from Belgium.

"https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-has-bought-belgian-m109-howitzers-from-a-private-company/"

also

"Weapons of Ukrainian Victory: M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer"

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




That is AWESOME!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Last time the Germans were in Ukraine, they were using PzKfw IV and PzKfw VI tanks - perhaps you might want to recheck your source?



Sources? Who needs sources?

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## GrauGeist (Jun 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sources? Who needs sources?


Oh...right, my bad

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 3, 2022)

_SIEVIERODONETSK, Ukraine, June 3 (Reuters) - Russian forces advanced deep into the ruined eastern factory city of Sievierodonetsk but Ukrainian troops were still holding out there on Friday as Russia's assault on its neighbour reached its 100th day.

Ukraine's defence minister said his troops were already training in Europe to operate new, advanced missile systems pledged this week by the United States and Britain, which Kyiv hopes will help swing the battle in its favour in coming weeks.

[...]

Reuters reached Sievierodonetsk on Thursday and was able to verify that Ukrainians still held part of the city. Troops drove at high speed over roads littered with wrecked armoured vehicles. One soldier sat in the back seat, his face streaked with blood from injuries.

[...]

Speaking by video link to a security conference in Bratislava, Reznikov said Ukrainian artillery crews were already training in Europe to operate new HIMARS and MLRS rocket systems pledged earlier this week by the United States and Britain.

Asked when Ukraine would be able to reverse Russian gains and drive Russian forces out of eastern Ukraine, Reznikov said: "I forgot my tarot cards at home... I cannot forecast definitely what month we will kick them out. But I hope that it's an absolutely realistic plan to do it this year."

Despite being driven from the north of Ukraine in March after a failed assault on the capital, Russia still controls around a fifth of Ukraine, about half seized in 2014 and half captured since launching its invasion on Feb. 24._









Ukraine says it pushes back Russian troops in eastern city


Ukraine said on Saturday it had recaptured a swathe of the battlefield city of Sievierodonetsk, where intense fighting continued, in a rare counter-offensive against Russia's main assault force that had been steadily advancing in the east.




www.reuters.com

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## Jerad (Jun 3, 2022)

Perhaps someone will be interested.
Scientific work on manipulations and methods of influencing the enemy, written by a Russian doctor academician of philosophical sciences.

*GEORGY LVOVICH SMOLYAN:
REFLEXIVE CONTROL IS A TECHNOLOGY FOR MAKING MANIPULATIVE DECISIONS​





Рефлексивное управление — технология принятия манипулятивных решений. Георгий Смолян – Гуманитарный портал


Г. Л. Смолян. Рефлексивное управление — технология принятия манипулятивных решений. — Труды ИСА РАН. Том 63. №2, 2013.




gtmarket.ru




*


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## Dimlee (Jun 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Perfect customer support.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 3, 2022)

The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine


Because of their experiences on the front line, some troops are seeking legal advice to avoid being redeployed.



www.bbc.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 3, 2022)

Kherson counteroffensive seems to be moving forward



Also there are unsubstantiated rumors that UAF pretended to abandon Severodonetsk, and started a counterattack. Reportedly, they feigned a retreat and lured Russians into a trap. Now they've cut off part of the Russian force in Severodonetsk. Heavy losses on the Russian side. No idea if this is true or just Ukrainian propaganda.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 3, 2022)

100 day map

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 3, 2022)

How Western heavy weaponry can make a difference in the war in Ukraine


“Artillery sweat saves infantry blood.” The Ukrainian military has this saying for a reason.It has been weeks since Ukraine began to ask desperately for heavy western weaponry, particularly advanced tubed and rocket artillery, as part of an effort to turn




kyivindependent.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> How Western heavy weaponry can make a difference in the war in Ukraine
> 
> 
> “Artillery sweat saves infantry blood.” The Ukrainian military has this saying for a reason.It has been weeks since Ukraine began to ask desperately for heavy western weaponry, particularly advanced tubed and rocket artillery, as part of an effort to turn
> ...



From your link:

_According to Oryx, an online investigations project, as of June 1, Russia has lost at least 13 heavy 120-millimeter mortars, at least 61 towed pieces (including 152-millimeter 2A65 Msta-B howitzers), 121 self-propelled pieces (including heavy 152-millimeter 2S19 Msta-S) and at least 69 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).

A large percentage of lost units were captured by Ukraine. 

But Ukraine’s military falls far behind in terms of quantities of artillery and rocket pieces in the field, as well as in terms of munitions available. According to multiple reports from the war zone of Donbas, Russia’s expenditure on munitions in combat is several times bigger than that of Ukraine’s.

Now that Russia’s all-out war has entered its fourth month, Ukraine is struggling with munitions shortage. Especially when it comes to Soviet-made multiple launch rocket systems like 220-millimeter BM-27 Uragan and 300-millimeter BM-30 Smerch._

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Now that Russia’s all-out war has entered its fourth month, Ukraine is struggling with munitions shortage. Especially when it comes to Soviet-made multiple launch rocket systems like 220-millimeter BM-27 Uragan and 300-millimeter BM-30 Smerch._


I imagine a lot of the ex-Soviet artillery will need to be abandoned and spiked once ammunition runs out. Hopefully before then the Ukrainians have replacement guns and ammunition from the West. There's likely many an ex-Warsaw Pact quartermaster digging through their stores for whatever ammunition can be found.

What's the railway and road network from Poland to Ukraine looking like? I expect that even when they're in good shape and trucks and consists are available it would take a week to get something from Poland to the front.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 3, 2022)

The best road is the railroad.

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## J_P_C (Jun 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine a lot of the ex-Soviet artillery will need to be abandoned and spiked once ammunition runs out. Hopefully before then the Ukrainians have replacement guns and ammunition from the West. There's likely many an ex-Warsaw Pact quartermaster digging through their stores for whatever ammunition can be found.
> 
> What's the railway and road network from Poland to Ukraine looking like? I expect that even when they're in good shape and trucks and consists are available it would take a week to get something from Poland to the front.


non profit supporters are trucking food from Poland to Kharkov two days both ways, ambulances transporting wounded soldiers from Lvov hospitals to Warszawa during one day - it means it is not so bad....

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## GTX (Jun 3, 2022)

Moscow threatens to strike 'decision-making centres' if Ukraine uses US rockets to hit Russia

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine a lot of the ex-Soviet artillery will need to be abandoned and spiked once ammunition runs out. Hopefully before then the Ukrainians have replacement guns and ammunition from the West. There's likely many an ex-Warsaw Pact quartermaster digging through their stores for whatever ammunition can be found.



Agreed, donor Soviet-era equipment will have a limited shelf-life due to ammo concerns. Do any ex-WP nations have ammunition-manufacture set up? If not, it's a _smoke 'em if you got 'em_ situation.



Admiral Beez said:


> What's the railway and road network from Poland to Ukraine looking like? I expect that even when they're in good shape and trucks and consists are available it would take a week to get something from Poland to the front.



Right. I don't know how well the Ukrainian rail net is holding up. But I did read a couple of weeks ago that the Russians were targeting switchyards and bridges with their missile strikes in order to hamper the arrival of Western aid, which is of course the sensible military thing to do.

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## GTX (Jun 3, 2022)

Example of Russian Asymetric warfare:









Russia-based cyber gangs have been holding an entire country to ransom. It could be a trial run for a bigger attack


Costa Rica has declared it is "at war" with ransomware cybercriminals that have disabled essential government systems. So who's responsible? And which countries will be targeted next?




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Jun 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> 100 day map



Yes, ISW is a good source. Highly recommended.





Institute for the Study of War







www.understandingwar.org

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## Dimlee (Jun 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine a lot of the ex-Soviet artillery will need to be abandoned and spiked once ammunition runs out. Hopefully before then the Ukrainians have replacement guns and ammunition from the West. There's likely many an ex-Warsaw Pact quartermaster digging through their stores for whatever ammunition can be found.
> 
> What's the railway and road network from Poland to Ukraine looking like? I expect that even when they're in good shape and trucks and consists are available it would take a week to get something from Poland to the front.


It depends on the location. To the south, 2-3 days. To the east - longer as nights are short now, infrastructure is damaged and some parts of the network are under constant surveillance and artillery fire.

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## GTX (Jun 3, 2022)

'100 days of suffering' in Ukraine as African Union says continent victimised by conflict


Some 1.7 billion people worldwide face increased poverty due to a grain blockade caused by the war in Ukraine, amid mass displacement of the country's population.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Jun 3, 2022)

H I Sutton discovered "dark" merchant vessels near Sevastopol.


H I Sutton - Covert Shores


Ukrainian Navy looked again and noticed something else. Two Russian Navy ships were between those vessels and the shore. 

This area near Luybimovka was used earlier as a missile launch site as can be seen in this video.

Merchant vessels as a protective screen?

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## Glider (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Kherson counteroffensive seems to be moving forward
> 
> 
> 
> Also there are unsubstantiated rumors that UAF pretended to abandon Severodonetsk, and started a counterattack. Reportedly, they feigned a retreat and lured Russians into a trap. Now they've cut off part of the Russian force in Severodonetsk. Heavy losses on the Russian side. No idea if this is true or just Ukrainian propaganda.



Don't you just hope that its true,

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## at6 (Jun 4, 2022)

I had to look up the term Orc. I found it that it is a nasty piece of work.


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## fubar57 (Jun 4, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-severodonetsk-russia-invasion-day-100-1.6476787

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Also there are unsubstantiated rumors that UAF pretended to abandon Severodonetsk, and started a counterattack. Reportedly, they feigned a retreat and lured Russians into a trap. Now they've cut off part of the Russian force in Severodonetsk. Heavy losses on the Russian side. No idea if this is true or just Ukrainian propaganda.





fubar57 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-severodonetsk-russia-invasion-day-100-1.6476787


Seems the counteroffensive rumours had some truth in them.

It seems counter attack caught Russians of guard, however I don't think this is an attempt to retake the whole city just to inflict as many losses on Russians as they can.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

Putin axes 5 generals from Russian military's top brass as Ukraine invasion nears 100th day mark


The firings come as the Russian assault on Ukraine continues to go poorly, with Moscow's forces suffering staggering casualty numbers.




news.yahoo.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Kherson counteroffensive seems to be moving forward


Update

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## Dimlee (Jun 4, 2022)

About equipment delivery to Ukraine. 
Tom Cooper summarised nicely:
"Ah well: at least the — cumulative — results of all the 'strenuous efforts' of the EU/USA/NATO to help Ukraine already have-, or at least are in the process of resulting in delivery of 118 M777s from USA, Canada, and Australia; 72 Krab self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) from Poland (18 are already in Ukraine); 20 M109A3GN from Norway, on top of at least 8, probably more of Zuzana-2s from Slovakia, and about 30+ Dana/Dana M2s from the Czech Republic, etc…. well, with Estonia- and Italy-provided FH.70s, and French-delivered Caesars…. plus all the possible support equipment and about 400,000 rounds of associated ammunition….sometimes by July or August Ukrainian Army is going to have one of 'most potent artillery corpses in Europe'. At least by standards from before 24 February 2022. Until then, thousands are going to die, additional thousands are going to end maimed for the time of their life, and scores of Ukrainian villages are going to be ruined forever…"

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 4, 2022)

Could it be that the Russians on purpose start to draw back slightly at Severodonetsk in order to draw in more UAF units?
Looking at a map, anyone (including the UAF) can see that ca. 30km behind is a gap (presently UAF controlled) which measures less then 15km in depth from Berestove to Siversk, with no rivers or larger forested areas in between.
If the RF manage to close that gap, then around 35-40 UAF BTG's are trapped in this "Lysychansk" pocket.

There are around 20 RF BTG's assembling around Berestove presently reinforcing around 12,000 other RF , maybe the UAF should rather draw back then to keep going in? what do you guys think?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> About equipment delivery to Ukraine.
> Tom Cooper summarised nicely:
> "Ah well: at least the — cumulative — results of all the 'strenuous efforts' of the EU/USA/NATO to help Ukraine already have-, or at least are in the process of resulting in delivery of 118 M777s from USA, Canada, and Australia; 72 Krab self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) from Poland (18 are already in Ukraine); 20 M109A3GN from Norway, on top of at least 8, probably more of Zuzana-2s from Slovakia, and about 30+ Dana/Dana M2s from the Czech Republic, etc…. well, with Estonia- and Italy-provided FH.70s, and French-delivered Caesars…. plus all the possible support equipment and about 400,000 rounds of associated ammunition….sometimes by July or August Ukrainian Army is going to have one of 'most potent artillery corpses in Europe'.


What about tanks? Is anyone going to provide modern MBTs? Have the UAF been training on Leo II or Abrams? What of the Polish T-72s?


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## Glider (Jun 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What about tanks? Is anyone going to provide modern MBTs? Have the UAF been training on Leo II or Abrams? What of the Polish T-72s?


For me the big unknown is what is happening regarding aircraft. No one seems to be talking about it but it will be critical. If heaven forbid, the Russians do spring a surprise then only supporting aircraft may stop it turning into a rout. If Ukraine are able to make a breakthrough you can be sure anything that can fly will be thrown by Russia into the fray to stop their forces routing, (which is far more likely). 

Personally I hope the USA are getting a serious number of F16's out of storage and preparing them, whilst suitable training regimes are in place to fly and support them. The cost the the taxpayer will be relatively low and the benefit huge.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> For me the big unknown is what is happening regarding aircraft. No one seems to be talking about it but it will be critical. If heaven forbid, the Russians do spring a surprise then only supporting aircraft may stop it turning into a rout. If Ukraine are able to make a breakthrough you can be sure anything that can fly will be thrown by Russia into the fray to stop their forces routing, (which is far more likely).
> 
> Personally I hope the USA are getting a serious number of F16's out of storage and preparing them, whilst suitable training regimes are in place to fly and support them. The cost the the taxpayer will be relatively low and the benefit huge.


I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.


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## Glider (Jun 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.


Jag
I hope your right about the training and general preparation regarding fighters. Also I do believe that you are right about the first signs of disagreement between Nato members in particular France and Germany. However on a more positive note, Urkraine now seems to be getting Drones that can fly considerable distances and drop very effective payloads. The difference between a drone that have that ability and aircraft that have a similar ability is starting to narrow.

On a more general note, the quality of the equipment that Ukraine seems to be getting is increasing, whilst the quality of the equipment that is being issues to the Russian front line seems to be getting worse. That can only be a help to the Ukraine

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> Jag
> I hope your right about the training and general preparation regarding fighters. Also I do believe that you are right about the first signs of disagreement between Nato members in particular France and Germany. However on a more positive note, Urkraine now seems to be getting Drones that can fly considerable distances and drop very effective payloads. The difference between a drone that have that ability and aircraft that have a similar ability is starting to narrow.
> 
> On a more general note, the quality of the equipment that Ukraine seems to be getting is increasing, whilst the quality of the equipment that is being issues to the Russian front line seems to be getting worse. That can only be a help to the Ukraine


Glider
I agree with your assessment, but IMO unless NATO starts to bring in heavy stuff and aircraft in respectable numbers - the present military stalemate between Ukraine and Russia can't really be undone. As such an "endless" war will be inevitable.
NATO is not in favor of an "endless" war (fear of $ and political changes)- nor do they believe in escalation via sending those weapons in unspecified quantities.
So I think it takes time (continued Ukrainian losses on behalf of their citizens and military) in order for NATO to give the Ukrainians just about the "exact" quantity to slightly influence the equilibrium without drifting towards a potential escalation.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 4, 2022)

The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians). I would think Macron would do well to remember the cost of appeasement.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians). I would think Macron would do well to remember the cost of appeasement.



At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The way to prevent endless war is to utterly annihilate Russia's ability to wage war. Putin must be humiliated (contrary to to what Macron might think) and not be allowed to claim any gains. Putin's complete military defeat is the only way he will be removed (by the Russians).


From a military tactical view of point I would say - Yes absolutely
However there isn't a single day were Russia/Putin isn't described as an evil maniac and being utterly reckless towards human lives.
If so, then once he realizes his defeat, what is to stop him from nuking Ukraine back to the stone-age? motto: okay NATO take what is left of it and don't forget to bring your ABC suits.
And nuking Ukraine (just my opinion) is not going to escalate into NATO nuking Russia.

As such I have to agree with Macron, to safe Putin's face might be of utmost importance - but slowly change the military equilibrium to make Putin realize, he is not going to win even in the long run.
End of story: Selenskyj will have to cede territory to Putin, or at minimum acknowledge several free Republics, whether he likes it or not.


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## Dimlee (Jun 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.


Well... Versailles 2.0 revanchism is already there in Russian Federation. Despite all the help given by the West, the wealth gained thanks to Western expertise and investments, opportunities to leave peacefully and prosper.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Well... Versailles 2.0 revanchism is already there in Russian Federation. Despite all the help given by the West, the wealth gained thanks to Western expertise and investments, opportunities to leave peacefully and prosper.



No need to fuel it further, then. Sanctions as tools of diplomacy only work in the context of _quid pro quo_. It stands to reason, then, that we should tie the lifting of sanctions to Russian reparations to Ukraine, preferably in a sequence of benchmarks resulting in their easing, and leaving the sanctions in place against Russian leadership in any event.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 4, 2022)

There is the Budapest Memorandum, which is an intetesting accord.

The signatories pledged to not only respect the sovereign states of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, but defend them in the event of attack.

Technically speaking, Russia (one of the signatories) has violated the accord and technically speaking, the UK and US (the other signatories) are within the agreement's boundaries to come to the aid of Ukraine militarily.

This talk about "oh, look out, Russia has nuclear weapons!" misses the point that other nations do, too. Putin can threaten all day long, but knows that if he does, he'll get what he gives.

If Russia deploys a nuke(s) in Ukraine, the US and UK can, legally, according to the Budapest Memorandum, respond.

This would have zero to do with NATO, too.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Could it be that the Russians on purpose start to draw back slightly at Severodonetsk in order to draw in more UAF units?
> Looking at a map, anyone (including the UAF) can see that ca. 30km behind is a gap (presently UAF controlled) which measures less then 15km in depth from Berestove to Siversk, with no rivers or larger forested areas in between.
> If the RF manage to close that gap, then around 35-40 UAF BTG's are trapped in this "Lysychansk" pocket.
> 
> There are around 20 RF BTG's assembling around Berestove presently reinforcing around 12,000 other RF , maybe the UAF should rather draw back then to keep going in? what do you guys think?



Well maybe you are right and this time Russians can encircle something.






However I think they need to cross a river to advance north-to-south. And the advance south-to-north form Popasna was stooped a few days ago.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> At the same time we must be wary of Versailles 2.0 fueling revanchist sentiments in Russia the next few decades. It's a fine line to walk here.



Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.

In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
> However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.
> 
> In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...



Occupation, along with the Marshall Plan, is what brough Germany back into the fold of democratic nations. We still have thousands of army troops based on German soil.

You're not going to be putting an army of occupation into Russia any time soon. 

As for the link between Versailles and WWII, it's there, and it's palpable, but I think the biggest factor was the economy of the late 1920s/early 1930s, and also the social unrest and violence of that era, leading Germany to turn to authoritarianism (and later, totalitarianism) as an answer to its ills.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

Optimistic?









Ukraine counteroffensive likely within weeks & should focus on Crimea


UKRAINE is likely to launch a major counteroffensive within weeks, according to a former military officer who fought against the Russians in 2014.




www.express.co.uk

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## Glider (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Optimistic?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Optimistic?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Here's hoping Mr Kovalenko is right, but Ukraine will need to extricate its troops from what appears to be an unfolding trap first. I think 
A
 Admiral Beez
was right, upthread, when he wrote that this is another Mariupol. Unless the hypothetical offensive in the article linked happens quickly, the danger of encirclement is clear.


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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here's hoping Mr Kovalenko is right, but Ukraine will need to extricate its troops from what appears to be an unfolding trap first. I think
> A
> Admiral Beez
> was right, upthread, when he wrote that this is another Mariupol. Unless the hypothetical offensive in the article linked happens quickly, the danger of encirclement is clear.


The danger of encirclement is there, but it's not easy for the Russians. As I said, there is a river there, the same that Russians failed (catastrophically) to cross for 3 times.
So unless the Russians can cross the River, the only way of encircling Ukraniasn is advancing all the way from Popasna. If Popasna salient overextends, it may be cut and encircled too.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 4, 2022)

Yeah, if their assault-crossing hasn't improved that could be an issue. Although with Mariupol's harbor now taking ships, how long will it be before the southern flank has the strength to force its way north?


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## GTX (Jun 4, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Jun 4, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Jun 4, 2022)

Is Jordan on good terms with the US and Ukraine? They’ve got hundreds of MBTs in storage.






List of equipment of the Royal Jordanian Army - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## GTX (Jun 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is Jordan on good terms with the US and Ukraine? They’ve got hundreds of MBTs in storage.
> 
> 
> 
> ...











Jordan is walking a diplomatic tightrope on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine


In spite of Jordan’s close ties to the United States and Europe, Amman has found itself walking a diplomatic tightrope in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in late February.




www.mei.edu

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## GTX (Jun 4, 2022)

Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis


So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.




www.washingtoninstitute.org

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## GTX (Jun 4, 2022)

When Putin sent his troops into Ukraine, a 'secret plan' to undermine him was quietly put into action


A vast network of former Belarusian officials, activists, private hackers and ordinary citizens has reached deep into Russia's war with the aim of helping Ukrainians defeat their invaders.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 4, 2022)

Ukraine says Russian troops retreating in Sievierodonetsk, Zelenskyy calls for Russian expulsion from UNESCO


Ukrainian forces have reversed a Russian advance in Sievierodonetsk and recaptured about 20 per cent of the city, according to the region's Governor.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 4, 2022)

By July the Ukrainians will be unstoppable. Hopefully by Aug 24th Ukrainians will again be celebrating their independence!









Independence Day of Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 4, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I am quite sure that UAF pilots have been trained on e.g. F-16 and other aircraft already in the past months - the question is as to how far the USA or NATO want to go towards escalation by actually supplying diverse aircraft to Ukraine. Presently discontent/disagreements among NATO members towards prolonging this war at it's present level seem to be rather on the rise.


NATO will go as far as the US goes. But who is the obstructionist pessimist advising Biden? The US has past the point of no return, has declared that it‘s all in for Ukraine. So give them the F-16s, Abrams, MLRS, drones and anything else they need and can be trained to use. Call Russia’s bluff, what are they going to do, launch nukes that send fallout across Russia?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 4, 2022)

U.S. Warship Arrives in Stockholm for Military Exercises, and as a Warning

_“ABOARD U.S.S. KEARSARGE, in the port of Stockholm — If ever there was a potent symbol of how much Russia's invasion of Ukraine has altered Europe, the sight of this enormous warship, bristling with 26 warplanes and 2,400 Marines and sailors, moored among the pleasure craft and tour boats that ply this port, would certainly be it.”_









USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## GrauGeist (Jun 4, 2022)

Just in case anyone's wondering where the USN's carrier groups are, here's the U.S. Naval Institute's live fleet tracker.

It might be of interest to note the number and position of several groups in the Pacific, too.






Fleet Tracker Archives - USNI News







news.usni.org

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Well maybe you are right and this time Russians can encircle something.
> 
> View attachment 672212
> 
> ...


If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove.


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## Jagdflieger (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Versailles resulted in the loss of some territory, constraints on German weapons and army, and payment of compensations. That resulted in WWII a couple decades later.
> However after WWII Germany, was totally destroyed, lost much more territory, and was split in four zones of occupation that took more than 4 decades to reunify.
> 
> In my opinion the second was a much more humiliating defeat, and yet, it resulted in almost 80 years of peace ...


Versailles caused the financial burden and loss of face imposed onto Germany. Which Hitler used to get to power.
He only had 34% in the last free democratic election - then used the implementation of the Emergency laws to gain control over Germany. Hitlers policy was that of a racial policy
that naturally included the conquering of other countries. Due to his attack onto Poland he got sidelined in his actual ambitions and had to take care of France/UK/ etc. in the West.

The other protagonist was the Soviet Union.
What did the Soviet Union and Hitler have in common? the dissolution or eradication of all these "new" countries born due to Imperial Germany's, Hapsburg-Austria's loss of WWI and the demise of Czarist Russia.

Looking at a map from 1914 and 1922 makes it obvious as to who these "new" countries were

As such the impact or creation onto a future European war was the actual maybe "unintended" issue of the Versailles treaty.
The dissolution of Soviet Russia between 1988 -1991 prepared the same basis for a future conflict as that of 1939 once a Moscow strong man would come in.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. Upon reaching the northern front-line within 5-10 km - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
> But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove.


Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.
The encirclement is possible. However, considering Russian advancement speed in the last weeks/months and Russian ability to cross the Donetsk river, I estimate the probability of closing that gap in less than a month is quite low.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

For those understanding Spanish here are some sources.








España, dispuesta a entregar a Ucrania misiles antiaéreos y carros de combate Leopard


El Ejército español instruirá en Letonia y en territorio nacional a los militares ucranios en el manejo de los tanques en su lucha contra la invasión rusa




elpais.com












Ucrania pide a España que instruya a sus militares en el manejo de tanques 'Leopard'


El Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez está estudiando una petición de Ucrania para el envío de instructores militares a un tercer país con el fin de que enseñen a




theobjective.com

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Berestove is still in Ukrainian control. The northern front line (delimited by Donetsk river) is 20-25 Km away, not 5-10.
> The encirclement is possible. However, considering Russian advancement speed in the last weeks/months and Russian ability to cross the Donetsk river, I estimate the probability of closing that gap in less than a month is quite low.


I didn't say that Berestrove is 5-10km away from the northern front line. But UPON the RF Southern thrust reaching the Northern Front-line within 5-10 km, a river crossing by the Northern RF units might be sucessfull if deemed necessary to do so by the RF.
Berestove is still in UAF hands - but this is were the RF Southern thrust possibly goes through in order to create a 1000km2 pocket upon reaching Siversk and then connecting with the Northern Front-line.

One also needs to keep in mind that these www "live" map's are partially manipulated, and only show the actual situation in a 24 h retrospective.
Likely the RF are concentrating onto these 2 thrust possibilities. see map.

On the other hand, the since May conducted "slow motion" and steamroller approach by the RF might suit their "ability" better, and their aim for a long time war - as long they do not run out of DNLR forces.

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## J_P_C (Jun 5, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> For those understanding Spanish here are some sources.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How soon before the UAF can competently operate and fight the Leo2? I assume they’ve been doing so since March or April. 

We’re not using our hundred odd Leo2s in Canada, where we‘re seemingly reticent to deploy them to Europe. I suggest Canada donate fifty or so tanks to Ukraine.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How soon before the UAF can competently operate and fight the Leo2? I assume they’ve been doing so since March or April.
> 
> We’re not using our hundred odd Leo2s in Canada, where we‘re seemingly reticent to deploy them to Europe. I suggest Canada donate fifty or so tanks to Ukraine.


Spain has about 50 Leopards 2A4 in "hibernated" state for about 10 years. Those were purchased from Germany in 1995 and will need Scholz's OK. For putting these tanks in operational state, it will take about two months once approved. The interesting part in the discussions about this new military aid, it includes training for Ukrainian operators in Latvia and Spain.
If I'm not wrong Poland, Finland and Sweden, among others (Canada as you say), have Leopards 2A4 and might be interested also in transferring them to Ukraine.

As for the anti-aircraft missiles, it seems its a few hundreds of surface-to-air aspide and aspide 2000 that Spain retired recently (replaced by NASAMS II)








Aspide - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Dimlee (Jun 5, 2022)

Good talk.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

Reportedly Greece is providing:
122 BMP-1
15K 73mm shells
2.1K 122mm rockets
20K AK-47 3.2M
7.62mm rounds
60 FIM-92 Stingers
17K 155mm artillery shells
1.1K RPG-18

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

_
KYIV, June 5 (Reuters) - Russia struck Ukraine's capital Kyiv with missiles early on Sunday for the first time in more than a month, while Ukrainian officials said a counter-attack on the main battlefield in the east had retaken half of the city of Sievierodonetsk.

Dark smoke could be seen from many miles away after the attack on two outlying districts of Kyiv. Ukraine said the strike hit a rail car repair works; Moscow said it had destroyed tanks sent by Eastern European countries to Ukraine.


At least one person was hospitalised though there were no immediate reports of deaths. The strike was a sudden reminder of war in a capital where normal life has largely returned since Russian forces were driven from its outskirts in March.

[...]

Ukraine said Russia had carried out the strike using long-range air-launched missiles fired from heavy bombers as far away as the Caspian Sea - a weapon far more valuable than the tanks Russia claimed to have hit.

Ukraine's nuclear power operator said a Russian cruise missile had flown "critically low" over the country's second largest nuclear power plant.

Sunday's attack was the first big strike on Kyiv since late April, when a missile killed a journalist._









Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in weeks, battle rages in east


Smoke could be seen from miles away after the attack. Ukraine said the strike hit a rail car repair works; Moscow said it had destroyed tanks sent by Eastern European countries.




www.reuters.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

Seems like another General might be gone.

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## fubar57 (Jun 5, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I didn't say that Berestrove is 5-10km away from the northern front line.


You edited it out because I saw it as well

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## GTX (Jun 5, 2022)

Ukraine rebukes Emmanuel Macron as explosions return to Kyiv


As more explosions rock Kyiv, Ukraine's Foreign Minister tells the French President that a warning not to humiliate Russia could only humiliate France, and that Russia needs to be put "in its place".




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Spain has about 50 Leopards 2A4 in "hibernated" state for about 10 years. Those were purchased from Germany in 1995 and will need Scholz's OK. For putting these tanks in operational state, it will take about two months once approved. The interesting part in the discussions about this new military aid, it includes training for Ukrainian operators in Latvia and Spain.
> If I'm not wrong Poland, Finland and Sweden, among others (Canada as you say), have Leopards 2A4 and might be interested also in transferring them to Ukraine.
> 
> As for the anti-aircraft missiles, it seems its a few hundreds of surface-to-air aspide and aspide 2000 that Spain retired recently (replaced by NASAMS II)
> ...


Has the Leo2 ever been used in anti-armour combat?


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## GTX (Jun 5, 2022)

'I've stepped up': Australian fighter on Ukrainian front line


A foreign fighter who identifies himself as Australian has spoken of his decision to travel to "faraway" Ukraine to help "a country in need" as it defends itself against Russia's invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, June 5 (Reuters) - Russia struck Ukraine's capital Kyiv with missiles early on Sunday _


Sounds like Kiyv needs some anti-ballistic and counter battery defences ASAP. Come on Israeli, let’s see an Iron Dome system for Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 5, 2022)

I came across a YouTube channel from Belarus. It’s called Military Summary. It has a disclaimer about not supporting the invasion of Ukraine. If I remembered it right, an interesting choice of words. 
The channel closely matches what Denys Davydov presents. His maps are from Russian sources and show Ukrainian forces positions, maybe. Just sayin’.

Update: I remembered it wrong. They are "against any aggression in Ukraine".

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sounds like Kiyv needs some anti-ballistic and counter battery defences ASAP. Come on Israeli, let’s see an Iron Dome system for Ukraine.



They won't. Russian cooperation in Syria means more to them, and they don't want to risk losing it.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'I've stepped up': Australian fighter on Ukrainian front line
> 
> 
> A foreign fighter who identifies himself as Australian has spoken of his decision to travel to "faraway" Ukraine to help "a country in need" as it defends itself against Russia's invasion.
> ...


This War has become a combat volunteer’s top destination, like the Spanish Civil War for young adventure/cause seeking Euro and American men, or like ISIS for young Muslim men.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Seems like another General might be gone.



Just heard on local TV that according to Ukrainian surces its 2 generals they hit in the last 24-48 hours.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

I wonder if Ukraine got these tanks reported on in 2014 up and running?









Stunning images show huge abandoned tank graveyard in Ukraine


Filled with rows upon rows of slowly rusting relics, the once deadly war machines now lie dormant in a secret depot in the town of Kharkiv in the Slobozhanshchyna region of eastern Ukraine - just 20 miles from the border with Russia.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

_
Russia is using separatist forces from a contested Ukrainian territory for urban ground assaults in an effort to minimize the impact of the war on its armed forces, according to new information released by British intelligence.

After sustaining heavy losses in a war that has dragged on for more than 100 days, Russia began mobilizing resistance fighters from the Luhansk region of Ukraine in a ground assault to claim control over the city of Sieverodonetsk in eastern Ukraine, according to an intelligence update from the United Kingdom's defense ministry, which explained the move "likely indicates a desire to limit casualties suffered by regular Russian forces."

Separatist forces from the Luhansk region have fought against Ukrainians since 2014 in a Russian-backed revolt, along with resistance fighters from the Donetsk region.

The strategy to use the rebels in Sieverodonetsk is similar to what Moscow has done in Syria, when it deployed soldiers from the Syrian army to assault urban areas. But troops from the self-declared independent region of the Luhansk People's Republic are "poorly equipped and trained, and lack heavy equipment in comparison to regular Russian units," the UK said._



https://thehill.com/policy/international/3512197-russia-using-separatist-forces-in-eastern-ukraine-russia-says/



I wonder how it will sit with Ukrainian separatists to be used as cannon-fodder now that Russia has already taken so many losses, especially after their own home towns have been chewed to pieces?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

Also:

_
LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - A Russian general was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.

The report, published on the Telegram messaging app by state television reporter Alexander Sladkov, did not say precisely when and where Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed.

There was no immediate comment from the Russian defence ministry._









Russian general killed in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reporter says


A Russian general was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.




www.reuters.com

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## wlewisiii (Jun 5, 2022)

More evidence that they really intend to put the T-62 on the battlefield.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> More evidence that they really intend to put the T-62 on the battlefield.




Are they aware that Javelins are dual-mode? The sides look pretty tasty.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Also:
> 
> 
> _LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - A Russian general was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.
> ...


Now if they can just score Dvornikov for the win!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Now if they can just score Dvornikov for the win!



Per Yahoo News:

_More than a week ago, the CIT team learned from Russian soldiers that General Dvornikov was no longer in charge of "the military operation" in Ukraine. He has been replaced by General Gennady Zhidko, who is the former commander of the Eastern Military District, and now is the head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces._









General Dvornikov ‘no longer in command’ of Russian Army in Ukraine - CIT


Russian General Alexander Dvornikov no longer commands Russian forces in Ukraine, investigators from open-source investigation group Conflict Intelligence Team said on June 2.




news.yahoo.com





FSB's already on it, it appears.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Per Yahoo News:
> 
> _More than a week ago, the CIT team learned from Russian soldiers that General Dvornikov was no longer in charge of "the military operation" in Ukraine. He has been replaced by General Gennady Zhidko, who is the former commander of the Eastern Military District, and now is the head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces._
> 
> ...


*Ahem* Now If they could just score Putin for the win!

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russia is using separatist forces from a contested Ukrainian territory for urban ground assaults in an effort to minimize the impact of the war on its armed forces, _


As Magneto said, “in chess, the pawns go first”

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> *Ahem* Now If they could just score Putin for the win!


No, that’s got to be the Russian‘s work. Ideally, if his people don’t shoot him like Ceaușescu, the Russians deliver him to the Hague.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 5, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Jun 5, 2022)

Did Russia hit any Ukrainian NATO-sent T-72s in Kiyv today? Putin says so.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As Magneto said, “in chess, the pawns go first”



Great until you ask the pawns to actually fight. Ask Vietnam-era conscripts about that.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)



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## MiTasol (Jun 6, 2022)

According to the news the French President has said Ukraine must not embarrass the Russians. _In the diplomatic sphere, Kyiv rebuked French President Emmanuel Macron for saying it was important not to "humiliate" Moscow. _








Ukraine rebukes Emmanuel Macron as explosions return to Kyiv


As more explosions rock Kyiv, Ukraine's Foreign Minister tells the French President that a warning not to humiliate Russia could only humiliate France, and that Russia needs to be put "in its place".




www.abc.net.au





Is that because the Ukrainians have already massively embarrassed France by holding out more than twice as long against Russia as France did against Germany in 1940?

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> According to the news the French President has said Ukraine must not embarrass the Russians. _In the diplomatic sphere, Kyiv rebuked French President Emmanuel Macron for saying it was important not to "humiliate" Moscow. _
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't forget that the French suffered the worst in WWI with 1.4 million dead. That had a profound impact on many not being willing to feed the butcher again.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

Now _THIS_ is funny...

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## GrauGeist (Jun 6, 2022)

It was the French that advised Poland's Marshal Rydz-Smigly to stand down on 30 August 1939.

I would take anything they say (or suggest) with a grain of salt.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



The fact that it suffered engine breakdown may be indicative of the state of those hibernated T-62

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

Meanwhile Putler is hiding in a Bunker.

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## at6 (Jun 6, 2022)

Macron is a tampon.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Just heard on local TV that according to Ukrainian sources its 2 generals they hit in the last 24-48 hours.


It may be *just one* (I expected stablished media to check facts before broadcasting ..). Apparently there might be a misunderstanding with the general name, both named Roman. It seems Kutuzov is the one killed, as reported above


"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."


Name confusion???

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

Tha is how international Isolation feels.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 6, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> You edited it out because I saw it as well


I find it beyond acceptance for a member here to forward such a blatant false statement - below is a copy of my "*original*" text that *RogerdeLluria* placed *in quote* himself in his post 7347, exactly copying my original post 7345.
So according to you one can alter onto a quoted text into someone else's post? rubbish and a *foul *statement of yours.

_Jagdflieger said:_
_If the drive comes from the Popasna direction (Berestove) there is no river to cross, until unifying with the RF in the north. *Upon* reaching the northern front-line within *5-10 km* - I don't think the UAF will be able to respell a crossing in the north if the RF would need to do so.
But off-course it all depends on the RF actual forces strength around Berestove._


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## at6 (Jun 6, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> According to the news the French President has said Ukraine must not embarrass the Russians. _In the diplomatic sphere, Kyiv rebuked French President Emmanuel Macron for saying it was important not to "humiliate" Moscow. _
> 
> 
> 
> ...





RogerdeLluria said:


> Tha is how international Isolation feels.



If true, poor Lavrov.. The pig molester should have to stay should stay in Russia.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> I find it beyond acceptance for a member here to forward such a blatant false statement - below is a copy of my "*original*" text that *RogerdeLluria* placed *in quote* himself in his post 7347, exactly copying my original post 7345.
> So according to you one can alter onto a quoted text into someone else's post? rubbish and a *foul *statement of yours.
> 
> _Jagdflieger said:_
> ...



Actually, the part is red was your original post…

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## Dimlee (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Russia hit any Ukrainian NATO-sent T-72s in Kiyv today? Putin says so.


The rail wagons construction/repair facility was heavily damaged. Officials said that one military object was targeted as well but without any details.


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## Dimlee (Jun 6, 2022)

Unfortunately, friendly fire happens.
Ukrainian Su-27 was hit by Ukrainian SAM yesterday. Kharkiv region, probably.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Actually, the part is red was your original post…
> 
> View attachment 672519


So?????
The issue wasn't about 5 or 10 km - but *UPON *reaching the Northern front-line, with the thrust coming from the Berestove area
It is correct that I initially posted 5km and some time later found it better to increase that range 5 km to 5-10km - anything wrong with that????

The post that was read and quoted, and answered upon by *RogerdeLluria *was clear to be read 5-10km, *and nowhere did I write that the Northern Front-line is 5-10km away from Berestove.
To state: *That I *altered a quoted post *is totally* FALSE !!!! What kind of MOD are you??? *bringing a post into play that was altered by me before being quoted and the alteration being totally off no consequenze or matter to the issue of my correcting statement towards *RogerdeLluria.

If I do not get a corresponding correct answer from you in this matter - then this will be my last post on this Forum (something YOU and many others are looking forward to anyway).*

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## MiTasol (Jun 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The rail wagons construction/repair facility was heavily damaged. *Officials said that one military object was targeted as well but without any details.*



I did not see it reported that any schools or hospitals or accommodation blocks (the usual "military targets" hammered by the Orcs) were hit today so what was this military target I wonder. 

Maybe the cities water supply 

or public transport 

or picnic area

or racetrack

or stadium

or movie theatre

or ...........

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## Dimlee (Jun 6, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I did not see it reported that any schools or hospitals or accommodation blocks (the usual "military targets" hammered by the Orcs) were hit today so what was this military target I wonder.
> 
> Maybe the cities water supply
> 
> ...


Shopping malls, parking lots, food warehouses, grain silos and mills, edible oil tanks, gyms, food factories, anything with a rail track, anything shaped as a hangar...
On one hand, "don't interrupt your enemy when he is making mistakes". If the air force reports to Kremlin another 99 tanks destroyed after hitting the wheat flour storage, let it be so. Let them trust their Verlgetungswaffen.
On the other hand, bastards systematically destroy the industries, loot what was not destroyed and reap the benefits in export markets. So much will have to be rebuilt after this invasion... until the next one?

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## Dimlee (Jun 6, 2022)

CAESAR operations were filmed by the French press. Checking how the taxpayers' money are spent?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> So?????
> The issue wasn't about 5 or 10 km - but *UPON *reaching the Northern front-line, with the thrust coming from the Berestove area
> It is correct that I initially posted 5km and some time later found it better to increase that range 5 km to 5-10km - anything wrong with that????
> 
> ...



I’m not accusing you of anything, or saying anything is right or wrong. All I pointed out was that your original post was not your original post. I have no dog in your little tit for tat fight with anyone. So cut your attitude…

Having said that, YOU are free to come and go as you please. I don’t look forward to anything one way or the other, and therefore it will not hurt me one way or the other if you stay or leave. Your high horse that you frequently ride in on can go out to Pasteur though.

That is my corresponding answer…

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m not accusing you of anything, or saying anything is right or wrong. All I pointed out was that your original post was not your original post. I have no dog in your little tit for tat fight with anyone. So cut your attitude…


*Bullshit *- a Mod who can't even do his job in a proper way - but supports *FALSE *statements by others - is a *USELESS Mod -* I am just short of calling you something else. 
So stay happy with yourself and alikes


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> *Bullshit *- a Mod who can't even do his job in a proper way - but supports *FALSE *statements by others - is a *USELESS Mod -* I am just short of calling you something else.
> So stay happy with yourself and alikes



I think someone didn’t take their meds.

And here I draw the line…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Direct attacks and insults will not be tolerated. If you think I am useless, then get lost.

Auf Wiedersehen Herr Jagdflieger.

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## pgeno71 (Jun 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> Macron is a tampon.


I am sorry but I have to completely disagree with your analogy. Tampons are not useless.

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## Jagdflieger (Jun 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Direct attacks and insults will not be tolerated.


Exactly - I do not tolerate that - good bye kiddo

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Exactly - I do not tolerate that - good bye kiddo



Adios…

Don’t let the door hit you, where the good lord split you.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Exactly - I do not tolerate that - good bye kiddo


You'll be back, if they let you. I give it 24 hours or less before your next post. 

I sense the compulsion is strong with you.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Unfortunately, friendly fire happens.
> Ukrainian Su-27 was hit by Ukrainian SAM yesterday. Kharkiv region, probably.



With both sides flying identical aircraft, how does a SAM team identify friend or foe? Do the UAF aircraft have IFF transponders?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With both sides flying identical aircraft, how does a SAM team identify friend or foe? Do the UAF aircraft have IFF transponders?



I'd be shocked if they didn't.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Great until you ask the pawns to actually fight. Ask Vietnam-era conscripts about that.


I expect the Russian's idea is that the UAF have only so much small arms ammunition, so make sure it's pumped into the separatist fools instead of your own guys.

And, it's in Putin's interest to liquidate the militant separatists in the Donbas and replace them with more docile Russians, since today's partisan ally is tomorrow's rebel against your goals, for example, Mujahadeen to Taliban.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> The rail wagons construction/repair facility was heavily damaged. Officials said that one military object was targeted as well but without any details.


I'd like to think the US or NATO advised Ukraine on how/when to reduce the risk of missile strikes on any T-72 marshalling areas.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

_
Britain has announced that it will send long-range missiles to Ukraine, joining the U.S. in bolstering the country's defensive systems despite threats from Russia that they would target those types of weapons.

The United Kingdom's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace issued a press release announcing the shipment of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), which can strike targets with high precision up to 50 miles away.

"The UK stands with Ukraine in this fight and is taking a leading role in supplying its heroic troops with the vital weapons they need to defend their country from unprovoked invasion," Wallace said in a statement. "If the international community continues its support, I believe Ukraine can win."

MLRS are similar to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) the U.S. recently shipped to Ukraine as part of a $700 million weapons package._



https://thehill.com/news/3512864-uk-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You'll be back, if they let you. I give it 24 hours or less before your next post.
> 
> I sense the compulsion is strong with you.



He’s not banned. I really don’t like doing that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With both sides flying identical aircraft, how does a SAM team identify friend or foe? Do the UAF aircraft have IFF transponders?



IFF. They should be changing their codes often as well.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I expect the Russian's idea is that the UAF have only so much small arms ammunition, so make sure it's pumped into the separatist fools instead of your own guys.
> 
> And, it's in Putin's interest to liquidate the militant separatists in the Donbas and replace them with more docile Russians, since today's partisan ally is tomorrow's rebel against your goals, for example, Mujahadeen to Taliban.



The amount of small-arms ammo pouring into Ukraine is no secret:

_Guns and ammunition make up a large amount of the transferred weapons. The U.S. has sent Ukraine over 50 million rounds of ammunition for handguns, rifles and artillery. Canada, Greece, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Slovenia have also supplied ammunition._

As for eliminating future rivals, perhaps ... but that seems pretty optimistic of him.


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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

Small arms and ammo are a very unimportant part of all of this. 

This conflict is a great example of what is important - a force armed with only small arms can not succeed. Ukraine could not stop the Russians without lots of explosives and the way to deliver said explosives - AT missiles, AA missiles, tank guns, artillery tubes, MLRS rockets and so forth. Without them and continuous resupply, they'd have no more success than the communists in post-WWII Greece and Malaysia instead of, as they are, closer to the situation of the NVA vs the ARVN in 74 ~ 75.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

Making clear (to Russia) what "not using HIMARS to attack Russian territory" actually means.

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## Glider (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I'd like to think the US or NATO advised Ukraine on how/when to reduce the risk of missile strikes on any T-72 marshalling areas.


Seeing how well Ukraine have been able to preserve and use their airforce, armour and tanks. I don't think they need any advice on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

Some sources claim Ukrainians have retaken almost all Sievierodonetsk, while others claim the opposite.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> Seeing how well Ukraine have been able to preserve and use their airforce, armour and tanks. I don't think they need any advice on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes.



Do they have platforms capable of countering these strikes in the numbers coming in?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

_HELSINKI (AP) — NATO kicked off nearly a two-week U.S.-led naval exercise on the Baltic Sea on Sunday with more than 7,000 sailors, airmen and marines from 16 nations, including two aspiring to join the military alliance, Finland and Sweden.

[...]

Ahead of the naval drill, which involved 45 vessels and 75 aircraft, the top U.S military official said in Sweden — the host of the BALTOPS 22 exercise — that it was particularly important for NATO to show support to the governments in Helsinki and Stockholm.

"It is important for us, the United States, and the other NATO countries to show solidarity with both Finland and Sweden in this exercise," U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Saturday during a news conference aboard the large amphibious warship USS Kearsarge, which was moored in central Stockholm.

[...]

Turkey, a NATO member that has had good relations with Russia, has objected to Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance, citing their alleged support for a Kurdish group that Turkey labels as terrorist. NATO's chief has been trying to resolve the dispute.

The United States has never before moved such a large warship as the 843-foot USS Kearsarge in the Swedish capital, where it sailed through narrow passages in the Stockholm archipelago, Milley said._









NATO holds Baltic Sea naval exercises with Finland, Sweden


HELSINKI (AP) — NATO kicked off nearly a two-week U.S.-led naval exercise on the Baltic Sea on Sunday with more than 7,000 sailors, airmen and marines from 16 nations, including two aspiring to join the military alliance, Finland and Sweden.




apnews.com

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## Glider (Jun 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do they have platforms capable of countering these strikes in the numbers coming in?


From what has been published there are some limited successes against cruise missiles and similar but only limited success. The point is that the clearly have proven their ability to keep their military material well protected from Russian strikes of all kinds. You have to admire the airforce in particular. There are only a limited number of places you can operate and maintain aircraft and the infrastructure needed to support an airforce and this they have done successfully to a considerable degree.

To assume that Ukraine need advice is probably the wrong way around. When this is all over I am confident that a number of western countries will be lining up to learn how Ukraine manged both this and a number of other facets of the war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> To assume that Ukraine need advice is probably the wrong way around. When this is all over I am confident that a number of western countries will be lining up to learn how Ukraine manged both this and a number of other facets of the war.



Very much agreed. I think we'll see years of analysis delving into what to do -- and what not to do.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> Seeing how well Ukraine have been able to preserve and use their airforce, armour and tanks. I don't think they need any advice on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes.


Need advice? Perhaps not. But advice from US and NATO captured IMINT and SIGINT on planned Russian launches and likely Ukrainian targets is hopefully always welcome. I expect no Ukrainian knickers need unknotting nor pride stroked when such advice is proffered.

Can you imagine an Ukrainian officer replying as you have above? _"Seeing how well we've preserved our airforce, armour and tanks, we don't need any advice from you on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes. So you can just take that dossier of intel and shove it." _Is that what you have in mind?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Turkey, a NATO member that has had good relations with Russia, has objected to Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance, citing their alleged support for a Kurdish group that Turkey labels as terrorist. NATO's chief has been trying to resolve the dispute._


The solution here is simply. Sweden asks Turkey for a list of suspected Kurdish terrorists, and stick the buggers on a plane for Ankara - or to Erbil International Airport in Iraq if you're worried the Turks will top them. Sweden should have never allowed itself to become a satellite office for the the Kurdish independence movement - and now this presents an opportunity to put that to right.

Sweden as a gravitation center for the kurds

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The solution here is simply. Sweden asks Turkey for a list of suspected Kurdish terrorists, and stick the buggers on a plane for Ankara - or to Erbil International Airport in Iraq if you're worried the Turks will top them. Sweden should have never allowed itself to become a satellite office for the the Kurdish independence movement - and now this presents an opportunity to put that to right.
> 
> Sweden as a gravitation center for the kurds



I think the sticking point may be differing definitions of "terrorism" in this instance.

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## Glider (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Need advice? Perhaps not. But advice from US and NATO captured IMINT and SIGINT on planned Russian launches and likely Ukrainian targets is hopefully always welcome. I expect no Ukrainian knickers need unknotting nor pride stroked when such advice is proffered.
> 
> Can you imagine an Ukrainian officer replying as you have above? _"Seeing how well we've preserved our airforce, armour and tanks, we don't need any advice from you on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes. So you can just take that dossier of intel and shove it." _Is that what you have in mind?


I believe advice and intelligence are two different things. There is a lot of evidence that Ukraine has been given a lot of intelligence and has used it wisely. I see advice as being instructed or 'advised' as to what action to take.

Apologies for my confusion

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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> Seeing how well Ukraine have been able to preserve and use their airforce, armour and tanks. I don't think they need any advice on how to reduce the risk of missile strikes.


Maybe that’s one of the reasons why they’re doing well.

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## Glider (Jun 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Maybe that’s one of the reasons why they’re doing well.


Exactly

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the sticking point may be differing definitions of "terrorism" in this instance.


Likely. But if Sweden and Finland want into NATO and Turkey holds the cards, then the former two had better consider the latter's definition.

Here's Turkey's POV









Finland and Sweden: 'Guesthouses for terrorists'


Turkiye voices objection to Finland, Sweden joining NATO, for now - Anadolu Agency




www.aa.com.tr

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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> Exactly


I knew that’s what you meant. 🙂


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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Likely. But if Sweden and Finland want into NATO and Turkey holds the cards, then the former two had better consider the latter's definition.
> 
> Here's Turkey's POV
> 
> ...


You do have a point.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You do have a point.


I don't know about Finland and Sweden, but in Canada the Kurd's PKK is definitely listed as terrorists.






Currently listed entities


Introduction to the terms of reference and listing of terrorist entities according to Canada's Anti-Terrorism Act




www.publicsafety.gc.ca

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## GrauGeist (Jun 6, 2022)

Several nations are providing crucial Intel to the Ukranian military, including Israel.

As noted several times upthread, U.S. military satellites and the Global Hawk UAV, operating over the Black Sea and Ukraine, are providing real-time info.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

Inside a 2S1 Gvozdika as it sends friendly greetings to the Russians...  

**

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## GrauGeist (Jun 6, 2022)

That loader is on his "A" game.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 6, 2022)

Holy crap. the man looks like he's doing everything.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That loader is on his "A" game.


He won't need PT in the morning!

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That loader is on his "A" game.


If it was me I'd accidently put in the charge first, and kill us all. So, we're all safer.

Here's a Canadian doing it a little less well. Chap was going to lose a limb.

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## GTX (Jun 6, 2022)

Zelenskyy visits frontline cities as Russia resumes strikes on Kyiv


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Lysychansk and Soledar, two cities close to some of the most intense fighting between his country's troops and Russian forces, and Zaporizhzhia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 6, 2022)

Vladimir Putin and Russian allies warn of escalation if US, Europe continues to supply Ukraine military with arms


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You'll be back, if they let you. I give it 24 hours or less before your next post.
> 
> I sense the compulsion is strong with you.



You win. He was lurking one hour ago.

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## ThomasP (Jun 6, 2022)

Interesting video. A Ukrainian drone managed to film itself being shot down by a MANPADS. The shoot down occurs about 0.41 to 0.50.

""

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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If it was me I'd accidently put in the charge first, and kill us all. So, we're all safer.
> 
> Here's a Canadian doing it a little less well. Chap was going to lose a limb.



I was worried he might poke his eye out.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelenskyy visits frontline cities as Russia resumes strikes on Kyiv
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Lysychansk and Soledar, two cities close to some of the most intense fighting between his country's troops and Russian forces, and Zaporizhzhia.
> ...


Do you have any videos of Putin visiting front line Russian troops?


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## GTX (Jun 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Do you have any videos of Putin visiting front line Russian troops?


Real or faked...?

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Some sources claim Ukrainians have retaken almost all Sievierodonetsk, while others claim the opposite.



Apparently both claims are true.
It seems that Severodonetsk is a fluid battle space, and lines change quickly.











Ukrainian Troops Counterattack In The South And East


Inasmuch as capturing Severodonetsk has become the Kremlin’s biggest near-term goal in Ukraine, the Ukrainian counteroffensive could spell disaster.




www.forbes.com

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## GrauGeist (Jun 6, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Holy crap. the man looks like he's doing everything.


Even in his rush, he moved well away from the breech block before calling clear (I couldn't make out what he was saying, because this cellohone sucks).

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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

I was watching for that too, GrauGeist. I’ve worked around heavy machinery.
I wasn’t commenting about your phone.

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## GTX (Jun 6, 2022)

Many Westerners have been shocked by the war in Ukraine. There is one thing they need to know


Despite the barbarity of the Russians and the suffering of the Ukrainian people, the war has been a tragic opportunity for governments and military institutions to learn crucial lessons. The most heartbreaking of all is that theories about the decline of war are obsolete, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

Our National Post newspaper should be called the National Pessimist, but perhaps they have a point.









Canadian armoured vehicles arrive in Ukraine but they're not fit for front line, experts say


The newly developed Senator is designed for law-enforcement and border-patrol use, raising questions about how helpful the vehicles will be for Ukrainian forces




nationalpost.com





What I'd like to see Canada sending are LAV IIIs. We produce the things domestically - let's ship fifty or more to Ukraine now.






Light Armoured Vehicle (LAV) III - Canada.ca


The light armoured vehicle (LAV) III is a well-protected, all weather vehicle that can be used at night and during the day, through battlefield smoke, and on most types of terrain.




www.canada.ca

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

Former Dutch YPR 765 APCs and Polish T-72s:



the song on the video is:



(Hat-tip: LGF Comment: Last week there was Ukrainian video footage ... )

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## Glider (Jun 6, 2022)

Those Dutch APC's look just the ticket for Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Former Dutch YPR 765 APCs and Polish T-72s:



That first T-72 needs a flag. Standard anti-armour tactic is to hit the lead tank so the others can't maneuver. You don't want the UAF MANPAT operator to only realize he's hitting a UAF column when he sees the second tank's flag.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> Those Dutch APC's look just the ticket for Ukraine.


They're based on the old reliable M-113. Not the greatest armor but they're the Timex of AIFVs - they just keep on ticking. The 25mm is a good support weapon but not so big as to tempt you to fight with targets that are too big for you.

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## J_P_C (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With both sides flying identical aircraft, how does a SAM team identify friend or foe? Do the UAF aircraft have IFF transponders?


Parol and Kremnij systems - probably identical to this one used by russians with exceptions of different daily code used - it must be confusing anyway...

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 6, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Parol and Kremnij systems - probably identical to this one used by russians with exceptions of different daily code used - it must be confusing anyway...


It’s no help blending into the background, but this is close to the WW2 invasion stripes that prevented unintended friendly fire.

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## special ed (Jun 6, 2022)

National Defense magazine, just received ,June, page 6 : "Royal Air Force Air Marshall Ian gale, director-general of joint force development at U.K. Strategic Command, said the British armed forces intend to leverage the tweets-against-tanks tactic in Ukraine, where anyone with a phone can take a picture of a Russian vehicle, send it out, and provide targeting data to those who need it. You can get a social media sweeper that will geo-tag, where tweets come, add a photo, and more recently, provide targeting-quality coordinates," he said at the IT2EC trade show in London. "We're working... to regularize that, but to protect it from interference that others have wished to put intro it."

Also, page 10 has an article about the Pentagon seeking tech partnerships with Swedish defense companies.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 6, 2022)

That is just brilliant


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Likely. But if Sweden and Finland want into NATO and Turkey holds the cards, then the former two had better consider the latter's definition.
> 
> Here's Turkey's POV
> 
> ...



Agreed, Turkey holds the stronger hand than anyone else in the equation, including other NATO countries.

I suppose it depends on how pliable Turkey's definition can be along with how pliant the two applicants are regarding Turkey's final stance.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> He won't need PT in the morning!



I was wondering while watching the vid, "who's getting the better workout, the barrel or the loader?" That's one hard-working SOB.

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## ThomasP (Jun 6, 2022)

I just read that the Poles are sending *240* of their T-72M1/M1R tanks to Ukraine. Has anyone seen mention of this number previously? I had read that they were sending some of their T-72s to Ukraine, but *240*? Is this correct?


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## SaparotRob (Jun 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I just read that the Poles are sending *240* of their T-72M1/M1R tanks to Ukraine. Has anyone seen mention of this number previously? I had read that they were sending some of their T-72s to Ukraine, but *240*? Is this correct?


In wlewisiii's post, #7541, the tanks in the vid were from Poland. This was shown in Denys Davydov's YouTube 2nd video today, 6 June. It's very entertaining.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> In wlewisiii's post, #7541, the tanks in the vid were from Poland. This was shown in Denys Davydov's YouTube 2nd video today, 6 June. It's very entertaining.



I haven't read of any number as large as what 
T
 ThomasP
quoted.


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## J_P_C (Jun 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I just read that the Poles are sending *240* of their T-72M1/M1R tanks to Ukraine. Has anyone seen mention of this number previously? I had read that they were sending some of their T-72s to Ukraine, but *240*? Is this correct?


236 is the official number with more than 100 2S1 and undisclosed number of BM21 (probably more than 50),

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## ThomasP (Jun 6, 2022)

Thanks for the confirmation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 6, 2022)

Does anyone have a source?


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## ThomasP (Jun 6, 2022)

"What Heavy Weapons the West Has (and Hasn’t) Sent Ukraine - New Lines Institute"

The article is from May 3, so it is out of date, but presumably accurate to that point in time.

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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does anyone have a source?


"official"- it means confirmed by polish ministry of defense - as well donation of 18 brand new Krab howitzers with 54 sold with undisclosed delivery date, they didnt said how many RPG76, assault rifles, ammunition, 40mm revolver grenade launchers, warmate loitering ammunition and others


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> "official"- it means confirmed by polish ministry of defense - as well donation of 18 brand new Krab howitzers with 54 sold with undisclosed delivery date, they didnt said how many RPG76, assault rifles, ammunition, 40mm revolver grenade launchers, warmate loitering ammunition and others



Oh, I wasn't stipulating "official, just something where I could read details about that number of tanks.


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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I wasn't stipulating "official, just something where I could read details about that number of tanks.


https://defence24.pl/ 
well informed polish portal close enough to the officials and polish defense industry - there is also english version of this


https://defence24.com/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> "What Heavy Weapons the West Has (and Hasn’t) Sent Ukraine - New Lines Institute"
> 
> The article is from May 3, so it is out of date, but presumably accurate to that point in time.



Thanks, Tom, exactly what I was hoping for. It's certainly larger than what I'd rad (which is presumably more out of date, lol), and I appreciate you helping bring me up to speed.


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## WARSPITER (Jun 7, 2022)

Are the Polish T-72's upgraded in any way to fit NATO use or standard as issued ?


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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Polish Weapons Defending Ukraine [ANALYSIS]


According to the officially released information, Poland has become the second most significant arms supplier for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as the value of the delivered weapons exceeded USD 1.6 bn. now. The above amount does not include the equipment procured at the Polish companies, and...




defence24.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> https://defence24.pl/
> well informed polish portal close enough to the officials and polish defense industry - there is also english version of this
> 
> 
> https://defence24.com/


 
And thanks as well to you. I hope you understand I wasn't trying to denigrate the Polish support for Ukraine, which in both arms and materiel as well as refugee support has been magnificent. I just like reading stuff for myself.


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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Are the Polish T-72's upgraded in any way to fit NATO use or standard as issued ?


slightly, new com gear with digital combat radio, digital internal communication system, pretty decent thermal sight, most important - serious part of this tanks have been recently overhauled as a stop gap measure to equip newly formed mechanized division

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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And thanks as well to you. I hope you understand I wasn't trying to denigrate the Polish support for Ukraine, which in both arms and materiel as well as refugee support has been magnificent. I just like reading stuff for myself.


np - you have asked and i've answered, i hope you have found what you have searched. Be aware that this portal is close enough to official sources to contain some doze of "official propaganda" as well

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> np - you have asked and i've answered, i hope you have found what you have searched. Be aware that this portal is close enough to official sources to contain some doze of "official propaganda" as well



I definitely appreciate the info, brotha -- and the grain of salt!


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## WARSPITER (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> slightly, new com gear with digital combat radio, digital internal communication system, pretty decent thermal sight, most important - serious part of this tanks have been recently overhauled as a stop gap measure to equip newly formed mechanized division


Thanks. I was assuming there would be some changes.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

NYT is suggesting that the UAF are not trained on their new kit.

Potent Weapons Reach Ukraine Faster Than the Know-How to Use Them


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## Dimlee (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> With both sides flying identical aircraft, how does a SAM team identify friend or foe? Do the UAF aircraft have IFF transponders?


They should have. But probably it was MANPADS.

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## Dimlee (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Polish Weapons Defending Ukraine [ANALYSIS]
> 
> 
> According to the officially released information, Poland has become the second most significant arms supplier for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as the value of the delivered weapons exceeded USD 1.6 bn. now. The above amount does not include the equipment procured at the Polish companies, and...
> ...


With 1.6 bln total military aid, Poland is most probably number 1 today if measured by total to GDP or total to own military budget. Polish effort is impressive.

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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> NYT is suggesting that the UAF are not trained on their new kit.
> 
> Potent Weapons Reach Ukraine Faster Than the Know-How to Use Them


is it surprising you?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> With 1.6 bln total military aid, Poland is most probably number 1 today if measured by total to GDP or total to own military budget. Polish effort is impressive.


It wouldn‘t surprise me if non-combatant Poles are directly helping Ukraine, such as Polish workers assisting in rail network and infrastructure repairs.


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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> They should have. But probably it was MANPADS.


in full equipment version both Grom and Piorun MANPADS may be equipped with IFF system, but it is working only with compatible aircraft equipment

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

_KYIV/DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine, June 7 (Reuters) - Ukrainian troops battled Russians street-to-street in the ruins of Sievierodonetsk on Tuesday, trying to hold onto gains from a surprise counter-offensive that had reversed momentum in one of the bloodiest land battles of the war.

[...]

After withdrawing from nearly all the city in the face of the Russian advance, Ukrainian forces staged a surprise counter-attack last week, driving the Russians from a swath of the city centre. Since then, the two armies have faced off across boulevards, both claiming to have inflicted huge casualties.

[...]

Before Ukraine's counter-offensive, Russia had seemed on the verge of encircling Ukraine's garrison in Luhansk province, attempting to cut off the main road to Sievierodonetsk and its twin city Lysychansk across the Siverskiy Donets river.


But following the counter-offensive, Zelenskiy made a surprise visit to Lysychansk on Sunday, personally demonstrating that Kyiv still had an open route to its troops' redoubt._









Ukraine's Zelenskiy says it will fight for all territory amid fierce battle in east


Ukraine will fight to recover all its territory occupied by Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday, as his troops struggled to hold their ground in bloody street-to-street fighting in the city of Sievierodonetsk.




www.reuters.com

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## ThomasP (Jun 7, 2022)

Stinger and STARStreak MANPADS have the ability to be fitted with IFF also, but as with the Grom and Piorun, they would have to be modified for use with the Ukrainian IFF sets. I do not know how easily that can be done - if they use interrogator/identifier encryption it might not be practical without replacing important parts of one or both IFF units.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

To 
A
 Admiral Beez
's point upthread about Iron Dome:

_
JERUSALEM -- Ukraine's ambassador is urging Israel to sell its Iron Dome rocket interception system and provide anti-tank missiles to defend civilians against Russia's invasion.

Yevgen Korniychuk on Tuesday stopped short of accusing Israel of blocking the sale of the missile defense system. But he wants the Israeli government to back up its verbal support for Ukraine with military assistance. At a news conference in Tel Aviv, he said Ukraine wants to buy the Iron Dome system, contending that the United States would not oppose such a sale.

The United States has been financially supporting Israel's Iron Dome for about a decade, providing about $1.6 billion for its production and maintenance, according to the Congressional Research Service. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets fired into Israel.

Korniychuk also said Israel last week declined a U.S. request for Germany to deliver Israeli-licensed "Spike" anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.

Israel has limited its support for Ukraine to humanitarian aid and was the only country operating a field hospital inside the country earlier in the year. Israel fears helping Ukraine militarily would inflame Russia, which has a military presence in neighboring Syria. Israel, which carries out frequent strikes on enemy targets in Syria, relies on Russia for security coordination._









Live updates | Russia returns 210 dead Mariupol defenders


KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s military intelligence agency says Russia has so far turned over the bodies of 210 Ukrainian fighters killed in the battle for Mariupol. It says most of them were among the last holdouts in the Azovstal steelworks.




apnews.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 7, 2022)

Hope he is right about Russians culminating after (or soon after) taking Severodonetsk








The New Russian Offensive Is Intended to Project Power It Cannot Sustain


The Russian offensive is a final push by Putin before he exhausts his military capability—Ukraine can defeat them if it keeps up its morale




time.com

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## wlewisiii (Jun 7, 2022)



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## GTX (Jun 7, 2022)

Two pictures that speak to the urgency of mine clearance needed in Ukraine. A tractor destroyed by an anti-vehicle mine and an abandoned corn crop.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> Two pictures that speak to the urgency of mine clearance needed in Ukraine. A tractor destroyed by an anti-vehicle mine and an abandoned corn crop.
> 
> View attachment 672671
> View attachment 672672


It will buff out.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> Two pictures that speak to the urgency of mine clearance needed in Ukraine.


One benefit of this war may be in the advancement of mine clearing tech and capabilities. Such advancement would be welcomed from Egypt, Iran, Afghanistan and Angola to the Falklands, Cambodia and Vietnam.

Detection methods under development








Demining - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

Lviv paratroopers kill half a hundred Pskov "blue berets" in 14-hour battle


Valentyna Romanenko - Tuesday, 7 June 2022, 14:45 Lviv paratroopers have reported the destruction of armoured vehicles belonging to the invaders and the deaths of up to 50 Pskov paratrooper occupiers on the Donetsk front.




www.yahoo.com

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## J_P_C (Jun 7, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Stinger and STARStreak MANPADS have the ability to be fitted with IFF also, but as with the Grom and Piorun, they would have to be modified for use with the Ukrainian IFF sets. I do not know how easily that can be done - if they use interrogator/identifier encryption it might not be practical without replacing important parts of one or both IFF units.
> 
> View attachment 672662


for MANPADS IFF is impractical from tactical standpoint - you have to spread your MODE4 and 5 daily codes through every soldier using it - how to keep it secret and effective than?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> for MANPADS IFF is impractical from tactical standpoint - you have to spread your MODE4 and 5 daily codes through every soldier using it - how to keep it secret and effective than?


Which makes me ask why the UAF operator can’t wait to verify his target before firing at just about anything flying past. Do the Ukranian infantry know that their side also has an Air Force?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> for MANPADS IFF is impractical from tactical standpoint - you have to spread your MODE4 and 5 daily codes through every soldier using it - how to keep it secret and effective than?



MANPADS were our biggest threat when we were in Iraq. We quickly learned that our countermeasures were ineffective against the IR missiles. We found our best defense was to fly fast and low. Blend in with the background, and change up our routes often.

As far as IFF is concerned We still changed our transponder codes every day, or if they were compromised, but this was mostly to ensure we were not shot down by our aircraft. Especially when flying near the Iranian border.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which makes we ask why the UAF operator can’t wait to verify his target before firing at just about anything flying past. Do the Ukranian infantry know that their side also has an Air Force?



Depends on the altitude they are flying at. It may be hard to identify before its too late.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Depends on the altitude they are flying at. It may be hard to identify before its too late.


Then the lads with the MANPADS need a SOP/ROE that demands visual confirmation before shooting. If “too late” means a possible Russian fighter at HA has safely left the area, that’s not bad day for the UAF. Killing a friendly though… not so much.

Something like step one below.












Manpads what are they and how do they work? Mr Chris Hughes


Legitimate military weapon, employed for Point Defence of vital assets and self-protection against air attack




genderi.org


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## gumbyk (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then the lads with the MANPADS need a SOP/ROE that demands visual confirmation before shooting. If “too late” means a possible Russian fighter at HA has safely left the area, that’s not bad day for the UAF. Killing a friendly though… not so much.
> 
> Something like step one below.
> 
> ...


What if its on its way _to_ the target?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 7, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> What if its on its way _to_ the target?


If “what if” combined with neglect of target identification is the Ukrainian army SOP/ROE for MANPADS, the Ukrainian Air Force had better not leave the tarmac.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then the lads with the MANPADS need a SOP/ROE that demands visual confirmation before shooting. If “too late” means a possible Russian fighter at HA has safely left the area, that’s not bad day for the UAF. Killing a friendly though… not so much.
> 
> Something like step one below.
> 
> ...



I’m well aware of how a MANPAD is supposed to be fired. I have had a suspected one fired at my aircraft, and others in my unit had confirmed ones. The point was that often these target aircraft are flying at high speed and high altitude where visual identification may not be so easy.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If “what if” combined with neglect of target identification is the Ukrainian army SOP/ROE for MANPADS, the Ukrainian Air Force had better not leave the tarmac.



If the Ukrainian air force is not flying, then requiring positive ID only slows down the missileer.

Another thought that occurs to me: when --not if, when -- the Russians learn this RoE, they can adjust tactics to provide the defenders even less time for visual IFF. 350 kts doesn't sound fast but at 200' AGL the defenders will have much less time to track and ID the incoming.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If the Ukrainian air force is not flying, then requiring positive ID only slows down the missileer.
> 
> Another thought that occurs to me: when --not if, when -- the Russians learn them, they can adjust tactics to provide the defenders even less time for visual IFF.



Most MANPADS are IR weapons anyhow and require visual identification.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Most MANPADS are IR weapons anyhow and require visual identification.



I was addressing the electronic IFF discussion above, to be clear. But with both sides flying in many cases very similar aircraft, visual ID is going to be trickier, and that will slow response times for the defenders.And if only Russians are flying, such a RoE is kinda nugatory.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I was addressing the electronic IFF discussion above, to be clear. But with both sides flying in many cases very similar aircraft, visual ID is going to be trickier, and that will slow response times for the defenders.And if only Russians are flying, such a RoE is kinda nugatory.



Agreed.


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## MiTasol (Jun 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then the lads with the MANPADS need a SOP/ROE that demands visual confirmation before shooting. If “too late” means a possible Russian fighter at HA has safely left the area, that’s not bad day for the UAF. Killing a friendly though… not so much.
> 
> Something like step one below.
> 
> ...



If the aircraft is hugging the ground then you may well have under ten seconds from first indication that it it coming until it has passed you.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

An Austrian analysis of the battle in Donbas:

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## J_P_C (Jun 8, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> If the aircraft is hugging the ground then you may well have under ten seconds from first indication that it it coming until it has passed you.


well said! additionally in 2 km distance (well within hitting radius) is impossible to visually confirm is it "friend" or "foe" - just another black spot which may kill you and your mates....

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## Jetman 33 (Jun 8, 2022)

The Ukrainians are winning. Monitor Denys Davydov on youtube, He gives daily reports.

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## at6 (Jun 8, 2022)

Merkel seems to support Russia. They have nothing to apologize for? What a Russian trouser sausage sucker.

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## at6 (Jun 8, 2022)

Russia attacks the Urkraine from Russia but there should be no attack in Russia. What a sack of sh1T.

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## at6 (Jun 8, 2022)

It's a shame that the Ukrainians can't reduce the Kremlin to the pile of rubble that it should be with Putin's remains inside where they belong.


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## Denniss (Jun 8, 2022)

at6 said:


> Merkel seems to support Russia. They have nothing to apologize for? What a Russian trouser sausage sucker.


Better shut up if you don't know what you are talking about. Merkel/Steinmeier tried to work with Russia, getting it to cooperate with others but no one actually imagined of what Putler was capable of or planned with Ukraine. I am no fan of Merkel BTW.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 8, 2022)

About merkel https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61727450.amp


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> If the aircraft is hugging the ground then you may well have under ten seconds from first indication that it it coming until it has passed you.


True, but did you see the blue on blue vid above? That Ukrainian fighter is at medium altitude just cruising along.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An Austrian analysis of the battle in Donbas:



I wonder if Austria is considering joining NATO. The last Austrian to face Russia did okay at first, though ending as badly as the last Corsican.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Better shut up if you don't know what you are talking about. Merkel/Steinmeier tried to work with Russia, getting it to cooperate with others but no one actually imagined of what Putler was capable of or planned with Ukraine. I am no fan of Merkel BTW.



Relax. Calm down.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> well said! additionally in 2 km distance (well within hitting radius) is impossible to visually confirm is it "friend" or "foe" -


Then you don’t shoot until it is possible. What’s the alternative, just shoot at any aircraft you see? The Ukrainian Air Force will be wiped out by their own guys.


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## vikingBerserker (Jun 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if Austria is considering joining NATO.


I was wondering the same thing about Japan.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I was wondering the same thing about Japan.


Japan? They're hardly a North Atlantic or European player. They'd be more apt to join AUKUS. 

I was surprised that Canada didn't join AUKUS. Trudeau explained it away here.

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## Denniss (Jun 8, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Relax. Calm down.


Hard to do so if someone with obviously no knownledge pisses on my former head of state.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 8, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Hard to do so if someone with obviously no knownledge pisses on my former head of state.



Either:

1. Provide a counter post in a civil manner.

Or

2. Ignore and scroll past (thats what most are doing when he makes outlandish posts).

There is also an ignore function you can use if you absolutely have to.

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## J_P_C (Jun 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then you don’t shoot until it is possible. What’s the alternative, just shoot at any aircraft you see? The Ukrainian Air Force will be wiped out by their own guys.


agree, problem here is that you may be sure about is it threat or not when aircraft is well below 1000m from you. If so even dumb bombs are already in the way. I think right answer here not exist - best guess and big share of luck.... Final solution will be BMS and data sharing - but we are still 10-15 years from this point.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I was wondering the same thing about Japan.


Is SEATO trying to be resurrected?


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## J_P_C (Jun 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is SEATO trying to be resurrected?


Defense Minister of Japan just first ever participated in NATO summit - will you be surprised if they will apply for membership in not so distant future??

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I was wondering the same thing about Japan.






SaparotRob said:


> Is SEATO trying to be resurrected?



_
To contain the Chinese control of the Indo-Pacific two important developments have taken place in the last 15 years.
One is the initiation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), colloquially called Quad, by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007 with the support of then Australian Prime Minister John Howard, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the US Vice President Dick Cheney.
The other is the formulation of the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy also known as the FOIP strategy or simply as the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2016 by Japan and the United States Department of State publishing it as a formalised concept on 4 November 2019.
Quad after its inception in 2007 was followed by a joint military exercise between the member nations called Exercise Malabar.

[...]

The Quad summit in Tokyo scheduled for 24 May 2022 is significant as it comes soon after China "taking control" of the Solomon Islands and the aggressive stance that China is adopting towards Taiwan, in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Tokyo summit will be attended by US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Australia will confirm after its elections due on 21 May 2022.
China calls the Quad the Asian NATO. Clearly, the Quad riles China as it is checkmating Beijing's plan to control the Indo-Pacific.
Quad is a quagmire for China.
_









Quad may prove to be a quagmire for China - The Sunday Guardian Live


The Quad summit in Tokyo scheduled for 24 May comes soon after China ‘taking control’ of the Solomon Islands. The Miguel de Cervantes quote, “forewarned, forearmed; to be prepared is half the victory” is a grim reminder to the world what awaits them if the security and stability of the...



www.sundayguardianlive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

Russian army base sees scramble for war supplies, locals and soldiers say


The town of Valuyki in western Russia has become a crucial staging post in the latest phase of Russia’s war over the nearby border in Ukraine. Throughout last month, helicopters buzzed overhead, military vehicles clogged the roads, and soldiers prepared for combat at a huge military base there.




www.reuters.com





That sounds like a great target, to me.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That sounds like a great target, to me.


Only if you want to escalate the war. So far the Ukrainians have played the diplomatic game perfectly, smashing any Russians who enter Ukraine but not touching Russia proper - not including partisan attacks on fuel, munition and transport depots near the Russian border. If Ukraine starts attacking Russian territory with artillery, missiles or aircraft the Americans will become reticent about providing long range missiles to the UAF. 

The UAF has a strong plan, let the Russians come to you to be killed. You needn't go to them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Only if you want to escalate the war. So far the Ukrainians have played the diplomatic game perfectly, smashing any Russians who enter Ukraine but not touching Russia proper - not including partisan attacks on fuel, munition and transport depots near the Russian border. If Ukraine starts attacking Russian territory with artillery, missiles or aircraft the Americans will become reticent about providing long range missiles to the UAF.
> 
> The UAF has a strong plan, let the Russians come to you to be killed. You needn't go to them.



The Ukrainians have already struck Russia.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 8, 2022)

Belgorad but Ukraine maintains that it might have been Heaven acting in mysterious ways.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Ukrainians have already struck Russia.


Has Ukraine claimed that?


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## SaparotRob (Jun 8, 2022)

To the best of my faulty recollection, no.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has Ukraine claimed that?



The unspoken premise in this question is that Ukraine would claim any attacks on this logistics hub that's only a few miles from the border.

My point was that the earlier helicopter attack inside Russia proper did not expand the war.

Further, the last thing Russia wants right now is to add to its list of combatants. I'm sure they're very aware of the looming quagmire should they fail to capture the Donbas, and their efforts will be focused there, in all likelihood. That's common-sense operational doctrine. They're not stupid.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Belgorad but Ukraine maintains that it might have been Heaven acting in mysterious ways.



Right, Belgorod is in Russia.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 8, 2022)

I have been watching a lot of talking heads go on about the war. I believe I read an article from mainstream news that a U.S. official said Ukraine would be justified in firing back at artillery firing on them, even if that included artillery inside the Russian border. I don't recall if he mentioned logistical centers.

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## ThomasP (Jun 8, 2022)

Interesting info on the use of the Stinger MANPADS by the Afghan Mujahideen vs the Russians.

The Russian invasion/war in Afghanistan lasted from December 1979 to February 1989.

The US supplied 250x launchers and 900x FIM-92A/B Stinger missiles to the Mujahideen forces from September 1986 to September 1987. According to the Mujahideen the Stinger accounted for 269 Russian aircraft shot down - out of 451 total (118 fixed wing and 333 helicopters, including accidents) lost during the entire war.

So in just ~3 1/2 years 269 aircraft were shot down with early versions of the Stinger, vs ~182 aircraft in 10 years lost due to other weapons or accident.

(It should be noted that the USSR claimed only 35 fixed wing and 63 helicopters were lost to all causes during the war.)

The FIM-92A/B had a ~5 km range. The current versions being supplied to Ukraine are the FIM-92E/H model, with a range of ~8 km, improved seeker, and improved ECCM.

edit: changed "Russians claim" to "USSR claimed"

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 8, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting info on the use of the Stinger MANPADS by the Afghan Mujahideen vs the Russians.


If there's one thing this Russo-Ukraine War is telling us is that the dominant era of the MANPADS and MANPATS has arrived. Every infantry man is capable of carrying a relatively lightweight simple to use weapon that can kill anything that flies or rolls past.

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## ThomasP (Jun 8, 2022)

I wonder what type of drone was shot down by what type of MANPADS in the video I linked upthread in my post#7,532?


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## GTX (Jun 8, 2022)

Ukraine's Book of Executioners will collect evidence of alleged Russian war crimes


Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says a new tool will collate evidence of war crimes and support his longstanding pledge to bring to account Russian servicemen accused of murders, rape and looting.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 9, 2022)

Low, Fast And Dangerous: A Firsthand Account Of Ukraine's Secret Helicopter Rescue Missions


In an exclusive interview, one rescuer describes the helicopter missions into the besieged Azovstal Steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol.




www.thedrive.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 9, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> If the aircraft is hugging the ground then you may well have under ten seconds from first indication that it it coming until it has passed you.


The old FB111 was supposedly immune to MANPADS when in TFR mode, "hard ride", mach .95, <200 AGL. By the time the IR seeker was initialized, the jet was too far away and going too fast for the missile to catch with its available fuel. Reportedly (by the the target pilot) confirmed by live test with an "emasculated" Stinger.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 9, 2022)

at6 said:


> It's a shame that the Ukrainians can't reduce the Kremlin to the pile of rubble that it should be with Putin's remains inside where they belong.


Read _Chains of Command _by Dale Brown. Get your "nuke the Kremlin" fix.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 9, 2022)

Have the Ukrainians lost Severodonetsk?


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## J_P_C (Jun 9, 2022)



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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2022)

Plastic Steel? I use that on my models.


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## Johnny Curedents (Jun 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Have the Ukrainians lost Severodonetsk?


Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.

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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2022)

re Severodonetsk

No, the Ukrainians have not yet lost the city. They still hold the eastern edge of the city, along a line NW to SE. The Ukrainian artillery (positioned on the eastern side of the Siverskyi Donets River) is making it very difficult for the Russians to bring their artillery to bear on the eastern part of the city, and do their usual total destruction of the structures. Most of the fighting in the city is street-street and house-house. The Ukrainians have tanks in the city acting as mobile pillbox and artillery, ambushing any Russian vehicles that attempt to move forward.

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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2022)

The Ukrainian forces are still holding a line south of Lysychansk (just on the western side of the river), from Toshkivka running to the west through the hills, and across the Dnipro River. I do not know what exactly happened, but there are reports of one Russian BTG attacking this line having broken and run in the last day or so.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 9, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.


Had Zelensky negotiated back in March, giving away stolen territory, it would have encouraged Russia even further.

Those "republic's" are puppets of Moscow, complete with "Soviet Union" top level domain extensions on their web domains.

So far, Russia has "enclaves" in Georgia, Moldova with views that other nations have "ethnic Russian populations" that need "protection".

Also, the Kremlin has made it very clear (on many occasions) that it does not consider Ukraine a sovereign nation.

Zelensky is 100% justified in refusing to negotiate: Russia has invaded his nation, killed his people and destroyed his cities.
And there is no "wunderwaffe", the equipment Ukraine is receiving, is time-tested, battle-worthy material that is having good results in killing the invaders.

One item that is in short supply, though, is sunflower seeds for the Russians' pockets...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 9, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.



Tucker Carlson much?

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## J_P_C (Jun 9, 2022)

here is serious question in context of MLRS/HIMARS delivery - what is available quantity of ammunition - in bold, but stupid move, west signed for cluster ammunition ban,as result only in germany 150k pcs of MLRS ammunition have been liquidated

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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2022)

The US has never participated in a meeting of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, even as an observer. And the US has continuously refused to agree to the ban.

The US still has a "large number" (180,000+) of M26 series cluster munition rockets in stock. Cluster munition warheads are still considered the primary warhead for the MLRS, although the US is building up a stock (50,000+ currently) of (200 lb) unitary warheads for the M31 GMLRS (the GPS guided rocket).

Incidentally, from Wiki: "One M270 firing 12 M26 rockets would drop 7728 bomblets, and one MLRS battery firing 108 rockets had the equivalent firepower of 33 battalions of cannon artillery."

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## SaparotRob (Jun 9, 2022)

Let’s send Ukraine more!

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## ThomasP (Jun 9, 2022)

Ignore my edit. 180,000+ M26 cluster munition warhead rockets is correct. Edited my post back to its original 180,000+.


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## Dimlee (Jun 9, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.


Nice try, tovarisch.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Tucker Carlson much?


I was thinking the same thing.

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## Dimlee (Jun 9, 2022)

_"The invasion happened on a Thursday and by the next day, Elon had called together a meeting and said, 'I want to get Starlink up over Ukraine,'" said Butow of the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit.
"By Sunday, the link was active. By Monday, 500 ground terminals showed up in Ukraine. By Wednesday of that week, all but 25 of those terminals were alive and providing real-time data," he added. "That's commercial speed. That's amazing."_









UkraineX: How Elon Musk’s space satellites changed the war on the ground


From artillery strikes to Zoom calls, the tech billionaire’s internet service has become a lifeline in the fight against Russia.




www.politico.eu

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> here is serious question in context of MLRS/HIMARS delivery - what is available quantity of ammunition - in bold, but stupid move, west signed for cluster ammunition ban,as result only in germany 150k pcs of MLRS ammunition have been liquidated


I didn't perceive a question above whatsoever. Here's one, where's the question?


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## wlewisiii (Jun 9, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.


Hope you get your stipend in dollars rather than rubles, tovarisch.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 9, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed that, had Zelenskyy not listened to bad counsel from Boris Johnson back in March, if he had continued bargaining in Turkey rather than withdrawing, he might have saved all but the two Donbass republics. Now he will be forced to pay a much steeper price in negotiations and, the longer Kiev holds out, the higher the price to be paid. The notion foisted on Zelenskyy by Johnson about Wuderwaffen saving Ukraine was crackpot from the get go.


Whatever you're smoking, I want a kilo.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 9, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"The invasion happened on a Thursday and by the next day, Elon had called together a meeting and said, 'I want to get Starlink up over Ukraine,'" said Butow of the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit.
> "By Sunday, the link was active. By Monday, 500 ground terminals showed up in Ukraine. By Wednesday of that week, all but 25 of those terminals were alive and providing real-time data," he added. "That's commercial speed. That's amazing."_
> 
> 
> ...


Honestly, I don't particularly like Musk, much less think he's as brilliant as he likes to pretend, but I'll grant him this and be glad for it.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Tucker Carlson much?


















All about on the same level, although I think Sponge Bob is a little but smarter.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 9, 2022)

Putin pretends to be a historian again: he says he must "return territories"


ROMAN PETRENKO - THURSDAY, 9 JUNE 2022, 17:46 Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided that he is destined to "return and strengthen territories". Source: Putin after visiting the exhibition "Peter I.




www.yahoo.com

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## J_P_C (Jun 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I didn't perceive a question above whatsoever. Here's one, where's the question?


ok here is one - will MLRS be another case in Gepard style?, other one is more general, if high tech only approach is affordable means of conducting warfare? final one is about NATO readiness level to response in a case of full scale conflict?


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## GrauGeist (Jun 9, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Putin pretends to be a historian again: he says he must "return territories"
> 
> 
> ROMAN PETRENKO - THURSDAY, 9 JUNE 2022, 17:46 Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided that he is destined to "return and strengthen territories". Source: Putin after visiting the exhibition "Peter I.
> ...


Funny how Putin goes for a cherry-picking expedition for his "history lesson".

Well before Peter the Great, there was the Kievan Rus - which is where Russia eventually came from.

So it appears Zelensky knows his history better than Putin, who either doesn't know or chooses not to.

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> View attachment 672923


"Resting Moron" face

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> final one is about NATO readiness level to response in a case of full scale conflict?


Full scale conflict outside of nuclear winter. I think if you'd asked this in Jan 2022 most would say that NATO is not ready to deal with the huge and powerful Russian conventional forces. We all assumed that the Russians knew their sh#t and had quality, well maintained kit. But damn, these guys couldn't even roll over an ill-equipped and unprepared Ukraine in the early days. Imagine Russia today, whilst still held up in the Donbas trying to march into Poland - Jesus, whomever comes, they're all dead. 

If the Russians go full scale conflict, presumably rolling tanks, missiles, artillery and bomber aircraft into Poland and the Baltic Reps in order to cut off weapons and supplies to Ukraine, thus tripping Article 5, they might as well go full monty and send their SSNs to attack West's undersea cables and strike the merchant ships transporting US tanks across the Atlantic. Damn, within a month there won't be a Russian navy or air force to speak of. Russia is using 1980s tech against 2022's NATO. Russia was supposed to counter this technological imbalance with huge numerical advantage... but nowadays numbers can't beat smarts.

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

These men were captured after fighting for Ukraine. Now they could face the death penalty


Three men are at risk of facing the death penalty after they were captured by Russian forces while fighting for Ukraine. Here's what we know about the case.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

'Endless caravan of death' in Mariupol, as Russia steps up assault in key eastern city


Workers transport hundreds of bodies from the ruins of high-rise buildings in the the devastated city of Mariupol. Russian pushes Ukrainian troops to the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk amid one of the bloodiest battles of the war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

Know the criminals:









'If you love Putin, money will flow on you like water': Meet the most powerful woman in Russia


She left her Ukrainian village for St Petersburg, dreaming of becoming a scientist. Instead she met a young KGB agent named Vladimir Putin who would eventually change her life.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

Two Britons and a Moroccan sentenced to death in 'sham judgement' by Russian proxy in Ukraine


Two Britons and a Moroccan who were captured while fighting for Ukraine are sentenced to death by a court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, one of Russia's proxies in eastern Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 9, 2022)

Ukraine latest: Ukraine says forces holding onto Sievierodonetsk, as troops regain ground in Kherson


Ukrainian forces claim to have pushed forward in intense street fighting in the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk, but say their only hope to turn the tide is more artillery to offset Russia's massive firepower.




www.abc.net.au

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## Jabberwocky (Jun 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> ok here is one - will MLRS be another case in Gepard style?,



You might need to provide a little more context. 'Gepard style' as in, promised but not made immediately available?



J_P_C said:


> other one is more general, if high tech only approach is affordable means of conducting warfare?



I don't think any military is "high tech only", but technology provides a force multiplier for militaries that makes things less expensive, not more expensive. The cost-effectiveness ratio is way higher.

It's probably cheaper to use a ~$2 million cruise missile or a $50 million drone and Hellfire combination to take out an ammo dump, radar or comms site than it is it put together a strike package of manned aircraft, for instance.

The West long ago decided it was cheaper and easier to expend things rather than people. 



J_P_C said:


> final one is about NATO readiness level to response in a case of full scale conflict?



'Full scale' with who? Readiness in what sense?

If the Western Military District decides to roll tanks into Estonia or Latvia (assuming they have much left after Ukraine), NATO is sending everything in Western Europe into the Baltic states and aircraft and rapid reaction forces from the US (MEUs, Airborne etc, etc) are deploying from the East Coast. Meanwhile, the navy is sending a couple of carrier groups that way and the SSNs are lobbing SLCMs at anything that looks like a target.

That's not going to happen instantly, but neither is a Russian attack on a country on its Western border. The Russian build-up preceding the Ukraine invasion took months - and even then it was poorly done.

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## at6 (Jun 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> Two Britons and a Moroccan sentenced to death in 'sham judgement' by Russian proxy in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Two Britons and a Moroccan who were captured while fighting for Ukraine are sentenced to death by a court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, one of Russia's proxies in eastern Ukraine.
> ...


I figured that they would given the death sentence. In return Russians who get captured should also get a death sentence.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 9, 2022)

at6 said:


> I figured that they would given the death sentence.


So should have they when they volunteered.

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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2022)

They thought that the normal rules of conflict applied and anyone IN UNIFORM was a legal combatant.

The Orcs play by their own rules and ignore most accepted standards of military conduct.

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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2022)

Who can come up with the best definition of orcs?

Orrible Russian Communist Shitheads is my opening shot.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 9, 2022)

"_...Orcs are a brutish, aggressive, ugly, and malevolent race of monsters..._"


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## MiTasol (Jun 9, 2022)

My apologizes - I meant to say acronym for ORCS - hence my sample one. Maybe I should have written *O*rrible *R*ussian *C*ommunist *S*hitheads.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 10, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> My apologizes - I meant to say acronym for ORCS - hence my sample one. Maybe I should have written *O*rrible *R*ussian *C*ommunist *S*hitheads.


I gotcha - I was quoting Tolkien's view.

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 10, 2022)

Institute for the Study of War


Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend




www.understandingwar.org

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 10, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> They thought that the normal rules of conflict applied and anyone IN UNIFORM was a legal combatant.


When have the Russians ever followed that convention? These are the guys that murdered thousands of surrendered Polish officers in 1940. The same guys who bombard civilian areas in Syria, who made bombs looking like toys to kill Afghan children. Anyone who volunteered for Ukraine’s foreign fighters who thought they were going to be fairly treated upon capture was naive at best.

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## Dimlee (Jun 10, 2022)

Not only Musk. Really well done, Amazon.








Safeguarding Ukraine’s data to preserve its present and build its future


AWS employees help secure vital data so the Ukrainian government, education, and banking institutions can continue to serve Ukrainian people.




www.aboutamazon.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 10, 2022)

"We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells,” 
"Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, according to Skibitsky. "









Cholera warning from Mariupol mayor – as it happened


This blog is closed. Live coverage will resume later.




www.theguardian.com

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## ThomasP (Jun 10, 2022)

There are "a number" of HIMARS/MLRS platforms already in route to the Ukraine area. I do not know if they are going to training or staging centers - or both.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2022)

For all the naive and delusion people in the world who think the best course of action is for Ukraine to negotiate peace and give up territory as well if need be…

Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine invasion is about expanding Russian territory.

Putin said it was his destiny to "return and reinforce" Russia like Peter the Great did.









Putin undermined his own rationale for invading Ukraine, saying that the war is to expand Russian territory


Putin said shortly before invading Ukraine that it had nothing to do with territory. On Thursday, he said it was his destiny to expand Russia.




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

Johnny Curedents said:


> Yes. And an article yesterday published inside Russia revealed [...]



Oh, I'm _sure_ that's legit.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I'm _sure_ that's legit.
> View attachment 673010



Get in step Comrade Thumpalumpsky!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So should have they when they volunteered.


One of them has dual Ukrainian citizenship.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> One of them has dual Ukrainian citizenship.


Yes, but he's tainted by "westernthink", so that makes him a mercenary and a threat to all Slavic peoples. Got it, Comrade?

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 10, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend
> ...


_"Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses."_

The Joke among Ukranians: The war will be over when Russians run out of T-34's

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## SaparotRob (Jun 10, 2022)

That’ll be a long time.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 10, 2022)

Remember when the T-62 was scary?

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## Dimlee (Jun 10, 2022)

New cemetery in the "liberated" Mariupol.


City before and after the invasion.

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## GTX (Jun 10, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Who can come up with the best definition of orcs?
> 
> Orrible Russian Communist Shitheads is my opening shot.


Except Communism has nothing to do with this!

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## GTX (Jun 10, 2022)

Ukraine fears West's support will wane as war with Russia rages on


After four months, officials in Kyiv worry that war fatigue could harm the chances of the West's resolve to push back as President Zelenskyy says people "want some kind of outcome".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 10, 2022)

Putin calls them 'scum' and 'traitors', but could fleeing Russians be a sign that the war is dividing opinion at home?


Vladimir Putin has been steadily winding back the clock on Russia's democracy. Independent media outlets have been shuttered, Western businesses have left and free speech has effectively been stamped out.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine fears West's support will wane as war with Russia rages on
> 
> 
> After four months, officials in Kyiv worry that war fatigue could harm the chances of the West's resolve to push back as President Zelenskyy says people "want some kind of outcome".
> ...



The fact is that media attention here in America is already waning. The real question is whether or not our government will maintain its focus.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Except Communism has nothing to do with this!


Except that Russia's leader is behaving like a Soviet dictator...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Except that Russia's leader is behaving like a Soviet dictator...



You could also fill in "fascist dictator" or "power-mad twatwaffle". Putin's behavior is much more nationalistic than communist. My sense is that he cares less about who controls the means of production than he does about who controls the entire damned nation.

I believe he actually longs for a revival of Tsarist Russia rather than the USSR ... just a personal opinion.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You could also fill in "fascist dictator" or "p0wer-mad twatwaffle". Putin's behavior is much more nationalistic than communist. My sense is that he cares less about who controls the means of production than he does about who controls the entire damned nation.
> 
> I believe he actually longs for a revival of Tsarist Russia rather than the USSR ... just a personal opinion.



Agreed

Hence why he often talks about Peter the Great.

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## pgeno71 (Jun 10, 2022)

> Thumpalumpacus said:
> 
> 
> > You could also fill in "fascist dictator" or "p0wer-mad twatwaffle". Putin's behavior is much more nationalistic than communist. My sense is that he cares less about who controls the means of production than he does about who controls the entire damned nation.
> ...


Agree with both of you. Ideology is irrelevant to this guy. I think he is just after power and the self-aggrandizement that it creates. I image a little Putin in the old Soviet days looking at the massive banners with Lenin and Stalin's faces on them, and thinking I want to be up there some day

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Agree with both of you. Ideology is irrelevant to this guy. I think he is just after power and the self-aggrandizement that it creates. I image a little Putin in the old Soviet days looking at the massive banners with Lenin and Stalin's faces on them, and thinking I want to be up there some day



Strongmen gotta strong, sooner or later. I suspect we'll see a resurrection of _samizdat_ and other passive forms of resistance.


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## wlewisiii (Jun 10, 2022)

Bwa-ha-ha! Now here's some high class trolling using real history rather than Putin's fantasies:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> Agree with both of you. Ideology is irrelevant to this guy. I think he is just after power and the self-aggrandizement that it creates. I image a little Putin in the old Soviet days looking at the massive banners with Lenin and Stalin's faces on them, and thinking I want to be up there some day



I actually think he loathed the Soviet regime. He may have have liked that the Soviet Union was considered powerful and feared, but I think he ultimately yearned for the czars to make a return. He enjoys the palaces and riches too much.

Given time, if he remained in power, I don’t think you would see the hammer and sickle return. He would have already brought back the Soviet regime long ago if that was his intent. I think he is a dying man who realized his days of being able to bring back the Russian Empire are dwindling. He wants his bust up there next to Peter the Great, and to be known as the great czar who rebuilt the empire.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 10, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I actually think he loathed the Soviet regime. He may have have liked that the Soviet Union was considered powerful and feared, but I think he ultimately yearned for the czars to make a return. He enjoys the palaces and riches too much.
> 
> Given time, if he remained in power, I don’t think you would see the hammer and sickle return. He would have already brought back the Soviet regime long ago if that was his intent. I think he is a dying man who realized his days of being able to bring back the Russian Empire are dwindling. He wants his bust up their next to Peter the Great, and to be known as the great czar who rebuilt the empire.



I agree, this invasion is (as crummy as it sounds), a legacy move to seal his own place in Russian history. After 20 years of him running a pluto-kleptocracy, ascribing any communism to him seems inaccurate. I think he wants Russia to be seen as strong and relevant again, and (incorrectly, apparently) thought this invasion would turn that trick.

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## pgeno71 (Jun 10, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He wants his bust up their next to Peter the Great, and to be known as the great czar who rebuilt the empire.


I don't think a bust is big enough for that guy's ego. Maybe replacing the largest onion dome at St. Basil's with a giant Putin-head would suffice for him.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 10, 2022)

pgeno71 said:


> I don't think a bust is big enough for that guy's ego. Maybe replacing the largest onion dome at St. Basil's with a giant Putin-head would suffice for him.



You are probably right.


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## wlewisiii (Jun 10, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jun 10, 2022)

Better to convert the Leopard 2 into bridging equipment / tank recovery vehicles. Be too late for immediate needs but looking forward, might be necessary for heavier armor to be able to cross rivers in Ukraine. I enjoyed the video.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 10, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> For all the naive and delusion people in the world who think the best course of action is for Ukraine to negotiate peace and give up territory as well if need be…
> 
> Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine invasion is about expanding Russian territory.
> 
> ...


We just want peace.
In Russian - Mir
It also means world.
There is no definite article in Russian.

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## MiTasol (Jun 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Except Communism has nothing to do with this!


Okay

Replace Communist with Cretinous (even though I consider that is severely insulting to the residents of Crete)

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## GrauGeist (Jun 11, 2022)

Aren't people from Crete called croutons?

Oh wait, those are those crispy bread things in a salad.

Never mind...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 11, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> My apologizes - I meant to say acronym for ORCS - hence my sample one. Maybe I should have written *O*rrible *R*ussian *C*ommunist *S*hitheads.



As far as this war is concerned: *O*bsolete *R*emfs *C*atching *S*hit.

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## at6 (Jun 11, 2022)

Saw an Orc once in a bar. Almost married it. Good thing it scared me sober.

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## ThomasP (Jun 11, 2022)

re HIMARS/MLRS being sent to Ukraine

The US has deployed 4x HIMARS platforms (from pre-positioned equipment already in Europe) for training Ukraine personnel, along with 48x rockets/missiles (43-50 mile max range types) and associated support/communication/targeting equipment. US estimates training time to be 3 weeks.

The UK has an undisclosed number of MLRS platforms intended for Ukraine, along with an undisclosed number rockets/missiles of the M30A1/A2 and/or M31 GMLRS unitary warhead types. They are currently training Ukrainian personnel in the UK.

The US is currently pulling unspecified numbers and types of rockets/missiles from stocks, inspecting and preparing them for shipment. The US is also currently inspecting and readying an unspecified number of HIMARS/MLRS platforms for shipment.

NOTE that the US (with over 1200 platforms in service or storage) is the only country that can send a large number of HIMARS/MLRS platforms directly or indirectly to the Ukraine. There is the indirect option of taking advantage of the NATO ring system to move HIMARS/MLRS platforms and rockets/missiles from one or another NATO country to Ukraine, with US platforms currently state-side sent to replace those of the NATO countries.

The US also has a significant number (over 100) of HIMARS/MLRS platforms already deployed in Europe, along with a large stock of rockets/missiles. Some are pre-positioned, some are with one or another of the forward deployed US Army artillery battalions/brigades.

The other NATO countries that currently operate HIMARS or MLRS platforms are Germany, France, Italy, Greece, and Turkey. Norway has a small number of MLRS in storage.

Incidentally, Poland has just ordered 500x HIMARS platforms along with an undisclosed number of rockets/missiles.

 A couple of nicknames for the HIMARS/MLRS are the "Grid Square Removal System" when used with cluster munition warheads, and "70 km Sniper Rifle" when used with the M30/M31 GMLRS unitary warheads.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aren't people from Crete called croutons?
> 
> Oh wait, those are those crispy bread things in a salad.
> 
> Never mind...



No, no, no….croutons are those things climbers attach to their boots to scale ice walls (I think).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 11, 2022)

at6 said:


> Saw an Orc once in a bar. Almost married it. Good thing it scared me sober.



I saw an orc drinking a piña colada at Trader Vic's. Man, his hair was _perfect_.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I saw an orc drinking a piña colada at Trader Vic's. Man, his hair was _perfect_.


One of my all-time favorites.

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## Dimlee (Jun 11, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> We just want peace.
> In Russian - Mir
> It also means world.
> There is no definite article in Russian.


It has been a popular joke in the Soviet military.
"Nam nuzhen mir..." followed by "ves' mir! " and a laughter.
Nam nuzhen = we need. Ves' = all.
And Mir is both "peace" and "world" .

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## Dimlee (Jun 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Good video. 
I'm not convinced with his weight argument since the premise is not true. 44,000 kg limitation quoted by OOCL is just a part of general guidelines for the shippers. It doesn't mean that infrastructure is limited to this weight. Grain trucks used to weigh up to 50-60 t until more rigid controls were introduced few years ago. Record violations measured 100 t and more.
Deficit of ammunition is the serious obstacle, of course, and can be a deal breaker.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 11, 2022)

I really hope Ukraine gets a buttload of the equipment it needs real soon. 
Just getting it off my chest.

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## GTX (Jun 11, 2022)

Oh no...now they will become healthier, fitter...what have we done??









Russia says goodbye to the golden arches


After three decades, McDonald's restaurants are closing their doors in Russia, marking the end of an era that saw closer ties between Moscow and the West.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 11, 2022)

Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles


Weapons manufacturers in China are likely to benefit most from Russia’s losses, while US companies will also see a boon.




theconversation.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles
> 
> 
> Weapons manufacturers in China are likely to benefit most from Russia’s losses, while US companies will also see a boon.
> ...



From your linked article:

_To date, the U.S. estimates Russia has lost almost a thousand tanks, at least 50 helicopters, 36 fighter-bombers and 350 artillery pieces, according to Business Insider. Thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed, with estimates ranging from about 15,000 to as high as 30,000, and Russia is still unable to control Ukraine's airspace.

[...]

Russia's offensive weapons have also proved disappointing. Its missile failure rate – the share that either failed to launch, malfunctioned mid-flight or missed their target – may be as high as 50% to 60% due to design flaws and outdated or inferior equipment.

[...]

What's more, Russia's ability to replace these equipment losses has been hampered by economic sanctions, which bars key foreign components like circuit boards._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> One of my all-time favorites.



Warren was a grossly-overlooked American songwriter. I don't like everything he's done, but the guy had both songcraft and wit.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles
> 
> 
> Weapons manufacturers in China are likely to benefit most from Russia’s losses, while US companies will also see a boon.
> ...


General Dynamics (stock symbol GD) makes 155 mm shells. Just sayin’.

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## WARSPITER (Jun 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Warren was a grossly-overlooked American songwriter. I don't like everything he's done, but the guy had both songcraft and wit.


Perhaps it would be a good time to send Roland in ? Apparently he is a bit excitable.

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## hawkeye2an (Jun 12, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perhaps it would be a good time to send Roland in ? Apparently he is a bit excitable.


Not sure headless would help, even if he WAS an excitable boy

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## SaparotRob (Jun 12, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perhaps it would be a good time to send Roland in ? Apparently he is a bit excitable.


Nah. Send lawyers, guns and money.

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## MiTasol (Jun 12, 2022)

Send lawyers. I presume as targets.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



IMHO, this vid is total bullshit:

Sending Leopard 2A4 is infinitely better than sending no tanks.
2A4 is way superior to the T-62 it may face.
AFPDS ammo is not an issue, there has been little to none tank to tank combat in Ukraine.
Training is not an issue, Spain has offered to train Ukrainians in Spain and Poland I think.
They are not really in bad state, they are hibernated. They where stripped of batteries, and any liquid (oil, hydraulics, etc), and have been stored in a controlled humidity environment (I guess they have been in a much better environment than stored Russian tanks). Of course some time will be required to get them ready and to train crews for them.
Even if its not 40 but only 10, it opens the door for other countries with 2A4 sending some more.
It also opens the door for more modern leopard versions to be acquired by Ukraine in the future. I'm thinking in a postwar scenario here.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 12, 2022)

Regarding countries with 2A4
Turkey (354), Greece (183), Sweden (160), Chile (140), Finland (139), Poland (128), Austria (114), Spain (108), Canada (107), Indonesia (103), Singapore (96), Norway (52), Denmark (51), and Portugal (37)
Plus whatever have in storage Germany and Netherlands, who as far as I know where the original users of 2A4

I'm not counting the 380 Pz 87, wich is esentially a swiss made 2A4, due to Switzerland neutrality police.

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## Dimlee (Jun 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> IMHO, this vid is total bullshit:
> 
> Sending Leopard 2A4 is infinitely better than sending no tanks.
> 2A4 is way superior to the T-62 it may face.
> ...


Rumours are that the Spanish offer was blocked by Germany. Not for the first time...

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## cammerjeff (Jun 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Nah. Send lawyers, guns and money.


Funny I was leaning more towards Roland the headless Thompson Gunner myself.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 12, 2022)

_
KYIV, June 12 (Reuters) - Russian forces fired cruise missiles to destroy a large depot containing U.S. and European weapons in western Ukraine's Ternopil region, Interfax reported on Sunday, as street fighting raged in the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk.

The governor of the Ternopil region said a rocket attack on the city of Chortkiv fired from the Black Sea had partly destroyed a military facility, injuring 22 people. A local official said there were no weapons stored there.


Reuters could not independently confirm the differing accounts.

Moscow has repeatedly slammed the United States and other nations for supplying Ukraine with weapons. President Vladimir Putin said earlier this month that Russia would strike new targets if the West supplied longer-range missiles to Ukraine for use in high-precision mobile rocket systems._









Russia destroys bridge over Ukrainian river, cutting escape route


Russian forces have blown up a bridge linking the embattled Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk to another city across the river, cutting off a possible evacuation route for civilians, local officials said on Sunday.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Jun 12, 2022)

Biden says Zelenskyy 'didn't want to hear' US warnings of Russian invasion


US President Joe Biden accuses his Ukrainian counterpart of ignoring US intelligence, saying many people thought he was exaggerating but "there was no doubt" Russia was going to invade.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Jun 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> Biden says Zelenskyy 'didn't want to hear' US warnings of Russian invasion
> 
> 
> US President Joe Biden accuses his Ukrainian counterpart of ignoring US intelligence, saying many people thought he was exaggerating but "there was no doubt" Russia was going to invade.
> ...


What could Zelensky have possibly done?

If he mobilized the military before 28 February, that would have been seen as provoking Russia. As it was, Putin was clearly stating right up to 27 February, that Russian forces were on maneuvers, nothing more.

Zelensky played a delicate balancing act and letting Russia make the first move places the blame squarely on the Kremlin.

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## Glider (Jun 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What could Zelensky have possibly done?
> 
> If he mobilized the military before 28 February, that would have been seen as provoking Russia. As it was, Putin was clearly stating right up to 27 February, that Russian forces were on maneuvers, nothing more.
> 
> Zelensky played a delicate balancing act and letting Russia make the first move places the blame squarely on the Kremlin.


Totally agree with this view.

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## Denniss (Jun 12, 2022)

He may have done what the Poles did when they knew the germans would be coming soon - move mobile units and aircraft out of their standard bases/depots to reserve/hidden places.


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## GTX (Jun 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What could Zelensky have possibly done?
> 
> If he mobilized the military before 28 February, that would have been seen as provoking Russia. As it was, Putin was clearly stating right up to 27 February, that Russian forces were on maneuvers, nothing more.
> 
> Zelensky played a delicate balancing act and letting Russia make the first move places the blame squarely on the Kremlin.


I agree - I was just posting the news story, not advocating one way or another.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 12, 2022)

Denniss said:


> He may have done what the Poles did when they knew the germans would be coming soon - move mobile units and aircraft out of their standard bases/depots to reserve/hidden places.


Weren’t Ukrainian planes relocated? I recall reading that the UAF had dispersed some of their planes.


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## wlewisiii (Jun 12, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jun 12, 2022)

The official band of the Vietnam war.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 12, 2022)

_
KYIV/LVIV, June 12 (Reuters) - Russian forces have blown up a bridge linking the embattled Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk to another city across the river, cutting off a possible evacuation route for civilians, local officials said on Sunday.

Sievierodonetsk has become the epicenter of the battle for control over Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. Parts of the city have been pulverized in some of the bloodiest fighting since the Kremlin unleashed its invasion on Feb. 24.


"The key tactical goal of the occupiers has not changed: they are pressing in Sievierodonetsk, severe fighting is ongoing there - literally for every meter," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiysaid in his nightly video address, adding that Russia's military was trying to deploy reserve forces to the Donbas.

Ukrainian and Russian forces were still fighting street-by-street there on Sunday, the governor of Luhansk province, Serhiy Gaidai, said.


Russian forces have taken most of the city but Ukrainian troops remain in control of an industrial area and the Azot chemical plant where hundreds of civilians are sheltering.

But the Russians had destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River linking Sievierodonetsk with its twin city of Lysychansk, Gaidai said.

That left just one of three bridges still standing.

"If after new shelling the bridge collapses, the city will truly be cut off. There will be no way of leaving Sievierodonetsk in a vehicle," Gaidai said, noting the lack of a cease-fire agreement and no agreed evacuation corridors.

The head of the Sievierodonetsk administration said a little more than a third of the city remained under the control of Ukrainian forces, with about two thirds in Russian hands._









Russia destroys bridge over Ukrainian river, cutting escape route


Russian forces have blown up a bridge linking the embattled Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk to another city across the river, cutting off a possible evacuation route for civilians, local officials said on Sunday.




www.reuters.com





Additionally, I heard on BBC today on the way home from work that the Russian bombardment of the chemical plant in the city has resulted in a large fire, which could obviously be very dangerous depending on the chemicals produced and stored on-site.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> IMHO, this vid is total bullshit:
> 
> Even if its not 40 but only 10, it opens the door for other countries with 2A4 sending some more.


I’d support Canada donating all eighty-two of our Leo 2s. We only borrowed and then bought the Leo 2 for Canada’s Afghanistan operation and haven’t deployed them in strength in over a decade.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The head of the Sievierodonetsk administration said a little more than a third of the city remained under the control of Ukrainian forces, with about two thirds in Russian hands._


Sievierodonetsk is lost, same as Mariupol. Not that Ukraine can’t retake them both and more through their summer and autumn offensive…. if Ukraine can get the weapons it needs and maintain the fickle interest of the West.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sievierodonetsk is lost, same as Mariupol. Not that Ukraine can’t retake them both and more through their summer and autumn offensive…. if Ukraine can get the weapons it needs and maintain the fickle interest of the West.



We in the west owe them everything we can give.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 12, 2022)

Fortunes of war can be difficult to predict, especially in an urban environment.

The city is not lost until the Russians have 100% control.


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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

Some bits of history for anyone not aware of them already.

On the *Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances*

From Wiki: According to the memorandum Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:

1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments."

In 2013 the US violated the Article #3 of the Memorandum by imposing economic sanctions against Belarus.

In 2014 the Russian Federation violated Articles #1 and #2 of the Memorandum by deploying Russian Special Force troops (wearing no identifying uniform insignia) in Crimea, seizing airports and strategic points including the Crimean Verkhovna Rada (~Federal building). During the subsequent occupation a Russian administered referendum for independence was held. Crimea was then annexed to the Russian Federation.

Also in 2014 the Russian Federation violated Articles #1 and #2 of the Memorandum by deploying Russian Special Forces and regular troops (again without uniform insignia) into eastern Ukraine. These RF troops joined up with Ukrainian separatists in the Donbas region and began a war that still continues.

In 2014 after the RF annexation of Crimea the US again violated Article #3 of the Memorandum (because the US refused to recognize the RF annexation of Crimea) by imposing economic sanctions on Crimea-based separatist leaders Sergey Aksyonov and Vladimir Konstantinov; Viktor Medvedchuk (former Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff); and Viktor Yanukovych (former Governor of Donetsk Oblast 1997-2002, Prime Minister 2002-2004 and President 2010-2014 of Ukraine).

In February 2016, RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed, "Russia never violated Budapest memorandum. It contained only one obligation, not to attack Ukraine with nukes." However, Canadian journalist Michael Colborne pointed out that "there are actually six obligations in the Budapest Memorandum, and the first of them is 'to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine'". Colborne also pointed out that a broadcast of Lavrov's claim on the Twitter account of Russia's embassy in the United Kingdom actually "provided a link to the text of the Budapest Memorandum itself with all six obligations, including the ones Russia has clearly violated – right there for everyone to see."

There were also several Russian attempts at economic coercion and numerous cyber warfare incidents, all with the intent to destabilize the Ukrainian government, thus violating Article #3 of the Memorandum.


Also, a possible rational for Putin's tune of "denazification" of Ukraine?

Again from Wiki:









Decommunization in Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





On 15 May 2015, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko signed a set of laws that started a six-month period for the removal of communist monuments (excluding WWII monuments) and renaming of public places named after communist-related themes. At the time, this meant that 22 cities and 44 villages were set to get new names. Until 21 November 2015, municipal governments had the authority to implement this; if they failed to do so, the Oblasts of Ukraine had until 21 May 2016 to change the names. If after that date the settlement had retained its old name, the Cabinet Ministers of Ukraine would wield authority to assign a new name to the settlement. In 2016, 51,493 streets and 987 cities and villages were renamed, and 1,320 and 1,069 monuments to other communist figures removed. Violation of the law carries a penalty of a potential media ban and prison sentences of up to five years.

On 24 July 2015, the Ministry of the Interior stripped the Communist Party of Ukraine, the Communist Party of Ukraine (renewed), and the Communist Party of Workers and Peasants of their right to participate in elections and stated it was continuing the court actions that started in July 2014 to end the registration of communist parties in Ukraine. By 16 December 2015, these three parties had been banned in Ukraine; however, the Communist Party of Ukraine appealed the ban, meaning the court's decision to ban the party did not come into force. The April 2015 decommunization law contains a norm that allows the Ministry of Justice to prohibit the party from participating in elections.

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

An interesting bit of info:

The French Foreign Legion currently has just over 700 members (out of 9000 total, or ~7.8%) who are current or former Ukrainian citizens. Recently the French Government has had to stop a number of FFL soldiers from traveling to the Ukraine area. Most of these soldiers were doing so in order to join the Ukraine armed forces in one form or another. There have also been a number of desertions, and it is believed most intend to travel to Ukraine.

Last week, the Commander of the French Foreign Legion made an address to his Ukrainian legionnaires and their families.

The following is a transcript of the address:

_LEGIO PATRIA NOSTRA (The Legion is our homeland). It is with these words that you, the legionnaires of Ukrainian origin or of the region in particular, wear the White kepi: "We swear to serve France with honor and fidelity".

I wrote this to you just one year ago in our Kepi Blanc magazine "In the name of Fidelity": Legionnaires are not stateless and the Legion does not ask them in any way to disavow their homeland, let alone to fight it.

But the Legion does not hand out causes to fight for, no matter how beautiful they may be. It was created for the service of France, welcoming volunteers. Our honor is not to choose our causes but to serve the mission which is sacred.

Your loyalty as a legionnaire is the heart of our commitment. It is for the time you have decided in your contract, unsurpassable.

Is loyalty painful? The history of the Legion for almost 200 years has been filled with pain but honor, the one that remains above all else. One of our elders said, "You can ask a lot of a soldier, especially to die, that's his job. We cannot ask him to cheat, to deny himself, to contradict himself, to lie, to perjure himself."

My dear legionnaires of Ukraine or of the region, concerned by this war, I sympathize with your inner turmoil. Your homeland is bleeding and suffering, your families are affected by this war. Yet, for those few who are tempted to run to where the fire is raging, I tell you that wars are only won if everyone does their job, where they are. As a Legion Father I know I must encourage you in this path of honor: do not perjure yourselves, for yourselves and for the Legion, maintain your service with honor and loyalty.

Who knows if tomorrow your unit will not be engaged, where will you be? You will then be missed by your partner, brother in arms like any legionnaire.

Dear Legion families, some of whom have suffered, be assured of the support of the Foreign Legion. In order to facilitate the safety of families fleeing the conflict zone, I have authorized legionnaires who so desire to travel to a country bordering the Ukraine to collect them.

Please be aware that any legionnaire concerned by this conflict may request the Foreign Legion to help him or her to receive his or her family in an emergency, in compliance with the regulations applicable in France, in particular according to the evolution of the directives concerning the consideration of refugees.

Legion solidarity, a corollary of the legionnaire's total commitment to our country, will thus be able to provide material or administrative assistance to the extent and according to its priorities. In this context, the Legion is working on the establishment of a listening unit to best meet your needs.

Let us be united and responsible for our Foreign Legion._

Interestingly, there are also ~450 Russian-born members of the FFL - none of whom have attempted to travel to the Ukraine area.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interestingly, there are also ~450 Russian-born members of the FFL


That has to lead to some tense moments at the legionnaire fromagerie.

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

I do not remember if any maps of resources in Ukraine have already been posted, so I though I should post these:

Ukraine-Mineral Resources






Ukraine-Crop Production

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 13, 2022)

_STOCKHOLM, June 13 (Reuters) - Sweden has take important steps to meet Turkey's demands for approving Stockholm's NATO membership application, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday during a visit to Sweden.

[...]

"I welcome that Sweden has already started to change its counter-terrorism legislation and that Sweden will ensure that the legal framework for arms export will reflect the future status as a NATO member with new commitments to allies," Stoltenberg said during a press conference with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

[...]

Andersson said Sweden had changed its terrorism laws and was in the process of further tightening.

"From the first of July we will also have even stronger legislation when it comes to the fight against terrorism. So here there are no questions about how strongly Sweden sees (on) terrorism and that we are willing to contribute to the fight against terrorism," she said._









NATO chief says Sweden has taken "important steps" to meet Turkey's demands


Sweden has take important steps to meet Turkey's demands for approving Stockholm's NATO membership application, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday during a visit to Sweden.




www.reuters.com

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

Interesting comment and wording from China:

5 June 2022
Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe reiterated Beijing's position on the crisis. "On the Ukrainian crisis, China has never provided any material support to Russia," he said, adding that it supported peace negotiations and "NATO will have talks with Russia".

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I do not remember if any maps of resources in Ukraine have already been posted, so I though I should post these:
> 
> Ukraine-Mineral Resources


Which is the real reason Russian wants eastern Ukraine. To steal Ukraine's oil and to prevent the EU from gaining a gas-rich member.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _STOCKHOLM, June 13 (Reuters) - Sweden has take important steps to meet Turkey's demands for approving Stockholm's NATO membership _


The invasion of Ukraine has given political leaders in Sweden the justification and public opinion to take on the KPP. I expect there are those in Swedish law enforcement and national security raising a glass to Turkey. Now, if we can just get the cranberry sauce on side.

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

Hey Admiral Beez,

re "Which is the real reason Russian wants eastern Ukraine. To steal Ukraine's oil and to prevent the EU from gaining a gas-rich member."

FWIW, I agree that is most likely part of it. I have been wondering if it is a combination of the following factors (not in order of importance).

1. Spite and pride, involving many things, including that Ukraine's (pre-war) living standard was on its way to significantly surpass Russia's in the next few years.
2. Putin and friends, and the oligarchs, may have exploited Russia's own people and economy to its practical limits. Hence they are looking for external material for exploitation. War is, after all, usually good for the economy (as long as your country is not the one being destroyed).
3. To prevent the Ukraine taking a significant amount of Russia's share of trade with Europe (particularly involving Ukraine's growing petroleum industry) - exacerbating item #2 above..
4. Old men in power, old men who's minds are degrading and regressing to wishful thinking about the good old days, and how they could have been a contender if only . . . Also possibly linked to item #1 above, as many old people become fixated on past real or imagined affronts to their real or imagined sensibilities. The apparent willingness of Russia to destroy entire cities and manufacturing centers, and food sources, strikes me as an example of the spite and/or temper tantrum equivalent of "If I can't have it, I will make sure you can't have it either".

I do not buy that Putin is actually ignorant enough to be afraid of NATO in an existential sense. As long as Russia has an effective nuclear arsenal, there is no way that NATO can be a military power based existential threat to Russia - at least not unless it is a suicidal one. And if the West was interested in implementing a MAD scenario there would be no need for comparatively little things like expansion of NATO.

Just some thoughts.

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## ThomasP (Jun 13, 2022)

Interesting bit of info:

On 6 June Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom announced that the connection between the Zaporizhzhia plant, now part of Russian-held territory in the south, and the UN's nuclear watchdog - the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - had been restored after a month and a half.

The Russian shelling of the plant -- the largest in Europe -- had sparked international outrage and fears over Ukraine's 15 operational reactors. Energoatom said the Russians had cut off the mobile phone operator at the site on May 30, but the connection with the UN's IAEA had finally been restored on Friday.

The IAEA said this week it was planning to visit the Zaporizhzhia plant to carry out essential safety work. However, Energoatom said that such a trip would legitimize Russia's control of the site, and said a visit would only be possible once Ukraine regained control.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 13, 2022)

With above.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

If Nazi Germany had talk shows, they would have been like this:

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> As long as Russia has an effective nuclear arsenal, there is no way that NATO can be a military power based existential threat to Russia...


I disagree. By invading Ukraine Putin has given NATO and the West a backdoor (through their UAF-proxies) to destroy Russia's military whilst nullifying Putin's nuclear option. Without a military to threaten its domestic population and to promote its relevance to the world, Russia's autocratic, corrupt regime is existentially threatened.

That's in part why much of the West is eagerly giving the UAF lethal aid, since we all want a "relatively" risk-free smack at the Russians. The West has contributed to the destruction of over 1,000 tanks, over 3,000 IFVs, at least 50 helicopters, three dozen fighter-bomber aircraft, 350 artillery pieces and over fifteen thousand dead Russia soldiers... all without risking a single NATO or Western soldier. This is an once in a generation opportunity to neuter a threat to world peace and civility. Hell, even the small and largely pacifist Kiwis are jumping to contribute to the great Russia comeuppance of 2022-(25?).

We could argue that NATO-armed Ukrainians defeating Russia and pushing them out of Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia. But humiliation and deprivation at home was enough to threaten the Tsar and the Politburo into domestic political defeat. Can Putin remain in power if he's pushed out of Ukraine and more than twenty thousand coffins come home?

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## GrauGeist (Jun 13, 2022)

"...the Ukrainian language, history and religion are made up..."

*palmface*

Russia needs to be reminded that their history comes from the Kyevans - their religion was introduced by Vladimir the Great, who also introduced the Bulgarian's Cyrillic language to Kyevans.

Russia's Peter the Great may have reformed their Cyrillic, but it's not their innovation - it's Bulgarian by way of Ukraine.

Dumbasses...

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## GTX (Jun 13, 2022)

Wikipedia appeals against Russian court decision to remove Ukraine war information


The Wikimedia Foundation argues people have a right to know the facts of the war, but a Russian law requires the deletion of banned infromation.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 13, 2022)

All bridges to Ukraine's Sievierodontesk destroyed but 'access' remains, governor says


Ukraine issues urgent calls for more Western weapons to help defend Sievierodonetsk, which could hold the key to the outcome of the battle for control of the eastern Donbas region.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 13, 2022)

If Russia captures Sievierodonetsk and the remainder of Luhansk, what will its next move be?


Russia's obvious operational objective in this phase of the war is to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Luhansk. And if it is able to take Sievierodonetsk, it will have several military options on the table, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Jun 13, 2022)

Does Ukraine have more troops in training?


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## Glider (Jun 13, 2022)

I really didn't want to believe that in this current situation, that France would slip into it's stereotype, but this is disappointing reading if true.

"France and Belgium stand out as buyers of Russian LNG on the spot market. As the EU is considering stricter sanctions against Russia, France has increased its imports to become the largest buyer of LNG in the world.
I should add that France has refused to comment on the report

Full article


Emmanuel Macron ‘betrays Ukraine’ as French imports of Russian gas soar

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## pgeno71 (Jun 13, 2022)

This "betrayal" as the paper puts it will become more widespread as the West and the globe moves closer to stagflation - recession with high inflation. Anybody who lived through the 1970s will remember, and if you don't or did not, Google it.

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## Denniss (Jun 13, 2022)

Maybe they are in a similar situation as Germany, multiple large naturals gas storage facilities were sold to russian or russian-controlled companies and they ran them almost dry since last year. This was a major reason for rather high prices last year and much higher prices this year even before their "special military operation".
Sell the russian bear your small finger and he takes your arm


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## MiTasol (Jun 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting comment and wording from China:
> 
> 5 June 2022
> Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe reiterated Beijing's position on the crisis. "On the Ukrainian crisis, China has never provided any material support to Russia," he said, adding that it supported peace negotiations and "NATO will have talks with Russia".



The Chinese are very _flexible _with the truth to put it very mildly.

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## MiTasol (Jun 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> "...the Ukrainian language, history and religion are made up..."
> 
> *palmface*
> 
> ...



So maybe Ukraine should repossess all of Russia.

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## Dimlee (Jun 13, 2022)

Denniss said:


> He may have done what the Poles did when they knew the germans would be coming soon - move mobile units and aircraft out of their standard bases/depots to reserve/hidden places.


That was done. Also, most of the troops left barracks for the "exercises".

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## Dimlee (Jun 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Weren’t Ukrainian planes relocated? I recall reading that the UAF had dispersed some of their planes.


Aircraft, SAMs, mobile radars, boats, etc. Mockups were left in some places. There were many movements. The whole picture will be revealed after the war.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Does Ukraine have more troops in training?


They need artillery and shells. They’re not short in manpower.

Where is all the heavy weaponry the West promised?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They need artillery and shells. They’re not short in manpower.
> 
> Where is all the heavy weaponry the West promised?



I suspect many are already in UKR, but that training the arty corps while it is so busily engaged is proving difficult.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They need artillery and shells. They’re not short in manpower.
> 
> Where is all the heavy weaponry the West promised?


I've been following events and perhaps too many YouTube vids. President Zelynskyy has said Ukraine has been suffering about a hundred casualties a day. We're past the hundred day mark. I've watched vids pointing out Russian formations are seriously undermanned or under crewed and certainly undertrained. This had seriously degraded the Russian Army. Ukrainian forces have been fighting fiercely in the Sievierdonetsk, Popasna, Kharkiv and other regions I can't spell. Just how tired are these guys? At the start of the war, I think I heard UAF had about 280,000 troops. What percentage of that number were combat arms? Are their casualties being replaced with trained troops or (shudder) conscripts? There has been a lot of artillery battles and the Good Guys must have taken losses.

I too wonder with frustration: WHERE ARE THE DAMN WEAPONS?


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## ThomasP (Jun 14, 2022)

Take an example of the Heavy Weapons promised and Think about it.

As an example, use the ~300x M113 tracked vehicles promised by the US. Each M113 weighs in the range of ~12 tons. The vehicles have to be inspected, followed by whatever maintenance is required, have whatever equipment is needed added to bring it up to operational standard, loaded on railcars (probably) and sent to a port with the required ship loading facilities, if they are being sent by ship (my understanding is that the large majority are being sent by ship). Deck cargo is easier to load than hold cargo, but usually more limited in numbers per ship. If they are sent as deck cargo they will have additional preparation for shipment (ie some protection needs to be provided against the ocean-weather elements). They could ship them by Navy RO-RO ships or LHA/LHDs - but there are only so many of these ships - and how many are available?

They could be sent by C17 heavy lift cargo aircraft. They still need to be transported (probably by rail, maybe by tractor/trailer transport over road, probably some could be driven if nearby) to the point of departure airfields. And you are talking a minimum of ~100 flights for the 300x M113, or more if there are associated loads of spares and consumables (which there are). Like the RO-RO ships, the number of heavy lift aircraft is limited - and how many are available or are they being used for other high priority cargos?

Then when they arrive in European ports (if sent by ship) they have to be offloaded, and transported to Poland or Romania (probably by rail?) to training and assembly points. How long does the training/familiarization take? I know that a fair amount (most?) of the training is already taking place in Europe using YPRs and other types of related M113 chassis already in Europe.

etc, etc

Some of the the US supplied M777 155mm towed guns (<5 tons) were sent by heavy lift cargo aircraft, some were supplied from US equipment already deployed in Europe. But the M109A6/A7 weighs in at 28 tons. The C17 can carry 2x per flight. All of the other problems exist as for the M113, with the addition of problems associated with a larger, heavier, more complex vehicle, which requires significantly more training.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 14, 2022)

In addition to the above, the equipment shipped via cargo ship needs to be offloaded in a country with a port that borders Ukraine (that is not situated in the Black Sea), and that would be Poland.
From there, the equipment is offloaded and either arranged for transit to the Ukraine's border or delivered to a base for training.

One simply cannot snap their fingers and transport the material through time and space - there is a considerable amount of logistics involved.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Logistics 101…

I remember when we deployed to Iraq from Germany (a lot closer than the US). It was a huge process that took about two months. All the ground vehicles and equipment had to be loaded on rail cars and shipped to the port. There everything had to be unloaded. Then everything had to be loaded onto a ship. 

The helicopters were flown to a depot where they were prepared for sea going travel (blades folded, engines preserved, and the entire airframe wrapped). They were then put on barges and transferred to the port. There they were offloaded and then loaded onto a ship. 

Once the ships were full they sailed to Kuwait City. We then arrived in port and met all our equipment and aircraft which were being offloaded. Once it was offloaded we had reassemble and prepare it for combat before it could move across the border.

This is a different scenario than the promised Ukraine equipment, but the point remains the same. Logistics is not magic. You don’t snap your fingers or wiggle your nose and it magically disappears and reappears somewhere else. Until someone develops a Star Trek transporter it takes time.

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## Dimlee (Jun 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suspect many are already in UKR, but that training the arty corps while it is so busily engaged is proving difficult.


Of the top off my head, training before the deployment in May-June: M777 1-2 weeks, M109 and CAESAR 2-3 weeks, Panzerhaubitze 2000 - 6 weeks at least.
I wonder how long was Harpoon training. Denmark announced the transfer on 24th May. First launchers operational in Odesa region not later 09th June.

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## Dimlee (Jun 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Admiral Beez,
> 
> re "Which is the real reason Russian wants eastern Ukraine. To steal Ukraine's oil and to prevent the EU from gaining a gas-rich member."
> 
> ...



About the reasons and the background.

And for deeper understanding I cannot recommend highly enough Timothy Snyder.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Logistics 101…


Given the necessity and limits of logistics, it would seem that any MRLS, SPGs and AFVs promised to Ukraine today won't be in the UAF's frontline hands until at least 90 days. In that sense, the dithering of the US and West may be fatal for the Ukranians. The time to send mobile artillery, counterbattery weapons, etc. was in March, so they arrived now. Instead, we have the US, for example, agreeing only on May 31st to send MRLS to Ukraine - more than three months after the Russian invasion began. Those Gepard mobile air defence vehicles promised by the Germans won't be armed and their crews trained and deployed to the front until likely August. 

Why is the US sending the MRLS now and not earlier? And really, is there any point in sending them now if they won't be in UAF frontline hands until early Sept? By then this war will be decided. For the most part, logistics cannot be expedited, there's no Genie, as you say, but the beginning of the train can and should have been executed earlier.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Given the necessity and limits of logistics, it would seem that any MRLS, SPGs and AFVs promised to Ukraine today won't be in the UAF's frontline hands until at least 90 days. In that sense, the dithering of the US and West may be fatal for the Ukranians. The time to send mobile artillery, counterbattery weapons, etc. was in March, so they arrived now. Instead, we have the US, for example, agreeing only on May 31st to send MRLS to Ukraine - more than three months after the Russian invasion began. Those Gepard mobile air defence vehicles promised by the Germans won't be armed and their crews trained and deployed to the front until likely August.
> 
> Why is the US sending the MRLS now and not earlier? And really, is there any point in sending them now if they won't be in UAF frontline hands until early Sept? By then this war will be decided. For the most part, logistics cannot be expedited, there's no Genie, as you say, but the beginning of the train can and should have been executed earlier.



Why send them now and not earlier?

1. Hindsight is 20/20

2. You can’t simply snap your fingers and send equipment. It’s not like renting a movie from Blockbuster. Everything has to be approved. The US’s military needs have to be evaluated and it has to be determined that it will not deter or undermine the US’s capabilities and operational needs.

What makes you think the US, Germany, anyone can just send stuff at a whim whenever they like? There is a process to everything. It takes massive coordination and funding.

War is fluid, and constantly evolving. Operational needs change, and its impossible to send everything and anything at one time and at anytime you want.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And really, is there any point in sending them now if they won't be in UAF frontline hands until early Sept? By then this war will be decided.



I wouldn't be so sure about that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wouldn't be so sure about that.



This war will drag out through the year. It will end when Putin is dead or overthrown.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

And remember, Ukraine does not have to destroy Russia’s military to win. It just has to outlast the Russian’s. That’s another good reason we have to keep sending equipment as we can. This is pretty much a war of attrition. If we can resupply Ukraine faster and replace their equipment faster than Russia (which I think we are doing), Ukraine can outlast Putler. His day’s are numbered.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

Regarding the deployment of the donated artillery:

_
BERLIN, June 14 (Reuters) - The training of Ukrainian troops on German howitzers will soon be completed, paving the way for the use of the weapons in the war in Ukraine, German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Tuesday.

Ukraine has pleaded for the West to send more and better artillery as the country runs out of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era arsenal, which is dwarfed by Russia's.

Western countries have promised NATO-standard weapons but deploying them is taking time.

"The training on the Panzerhaubitze 2000 will soon be completed so that it can be used in battle in Ukraine," Lambrecht told reporters during a visit to a military base in the western German town of Rheinbach._









Howitzers soon to be ready for use in Ukraine, Germany's defense minister says


The training of Ukrainian troops on German howitzers will soon be completed, paving the way for the use of the weapons in the war in Ukraine, German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Tuesday.




www.reuters.com





That's 12 pieces there (7 German, 5 Dutch[?]). I can't see the MLRS being a simpler training program, but I'm not up on the ins and outs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And remember, Ukraine does not have to destroy Russia’s military to win. It just has to outlast the Russian’s. That’s another good reason we have to keep sending equipment as we can. This is pretty much a war of attrition. If we can resupply Ukraine faster and replace their equipment faster than Russia (which I think we are doing), Ukraine can outlast Putler. His day’s are numbered.



Exactly. I wrote it far upthread near the beginning of this invasion that Ukraine doesn't need to win, they need to not lose. And they're in a position to do that right now.

Even if the Russians succeed in seizing all of the Donbas, they'll be worn -- so worn that reconstitution under the sanctions regime will be very difficult and, more importantly, slow. And as we've seen with the French quickly walking back their urging to not "humiliate" Russia in the face of vocal criticism, the idea of urging Ukraine to make concessions in order to find peace is unpopular.

If the forgoing holds true going forward, it follows that through the fall (_rasputsitsa_ in full spate), both sides will be in a race to reconstitute their forces in preparation for an offensive after the solid freeze sets in. I suspect the Ukrainians, with all the aid coming in, will be in a solid position to deliver a solid counteroffensive, perhaps with the aim of splitting the land corridor to Crimea?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Why send them now and not earlier?
> 
> 1. Hindsight is 20/20
> 
> ...



Just to add to this. I suspect that the US and West expected this to be a quick war. That Russia would quickly roll through Ukraine (everyone thought more of the “feared” Russian juggernaut). You don’t send all your equipment just to have it destroyed or captured. As the war drug out, and it was discovered that the Russian’s were not as good and powerful as we thought, and that Ukraine has a chance to actually win this war, you become more optimistic and you are more likely to send equipment. Plus as the war evolves and drags on, the types of weapons needed become more apparent.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wouldn't be so sure about that.


Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.

At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.
> 
> At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.



You got the winning Powerball numbers too?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

And its not about being “Spineless”. It’s about reality. This is not a fantasy world Hollywood movie where countries snap their fingers and weapons magically appear in Ukraine.

Why has Canada not sent their entire military stocks to Ukraine? By god they are not helping enough!!! Canada is not all in in the war against Russia!

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## wimble toot (Jun 14, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> So maybe Ukraine should repossess all of Russia.


I'm quite happy to see Russia's borders restored to their 1618 levels

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 14, 2022)

Logistics is not magic, and it takes time (don't forget about training).

But, Iraq invaded Kuwait by August 2 and by February 28 the war was over. They handled 170,000 vehicles (including 12,000 armored) and 12,575 aircraft and almost a million men. Plus fuel ammo and food.

If only 1/5 of the logistic effort of the first gulf war was devoted to Ukrainia ....

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You got the winning Powerball numbers too?


No magic foresight needed. Russia is gaining territory in Eastern Ukraine. The war will go into 2023 and beyond. France and others are already grumbling that Ukraine seek peace.

But I'm trusting and hopeful that I'm full of crap, and that UAF will hold back the Russians until their promised NATO heavy weaponry, training and sufficient ammunition arrive in Aug leading to a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in September that by Feb 24, 2023 has driven the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, liberated Mariupol, retaken Crimea and defeated the Russian-backed separatist in the Donbas. 🤞


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Logistics is not magic, and it takes time (don't forget about training).
> 
> But, Iraq invaded Kuwait by August 2 and by February 28 the war was over. They handled 170,000 vehicles (including 12,000 armored) and 12,575 aircraft and almost a million men. Plus fuel ammo and food.
> 
> If only 1/5 of the logistic effort of the first gulf war was devoted to Ukrainia ....



One key and very big difference…

The coalition in the first Gulf War was shipping, transporting, and using their own equipment, not sending it to Kuwait for them to fight Iraq with. Had it been a similar situation it would not have gone as smoothly.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Another thing everyone is missing is every country has “export laws” that pertain to military equipment. These laws cannot simply be skipped over.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No magic foresight needed. Russia is gaining territory in Eastern Ukraine. The war will go into 2023 and beyond. France and others are already grumbling that Ukraine seek peace.
> 
> But I'm trusting and hopeful that I'm full of crap, and that UAF will hold back the Russians until their promised NATO heavy weaponry, training and sufficient ammunition arrive in Aug leading to a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in September that by Feb 24, 2023 has driven the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine, liberated Mariupol, retaken Crimea and defeated the Russian-backed separatist in the Donbas. 🤞



Russia has been making gains from day one. In doing so they are expending their resources and manpower. Then Ukraine which has been building up its resources and manpower counter-attacks. This is how the battle has been fought from day one. Like I said it, it is a textbook war of attrition and Ukraine just has to outlast Russia.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 14, 2022)

At least we don't have to worry about U-boats hampering the supply chain.

Might also be a good time to point out that yes, at the start of the invasion, everyone thought Ukraine was screwed because of Russia's might. And the numbers were certainly in their favor.

But then again, Operation Barbarossa was supposed to be a quick, overwhelming victory, too...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> At least we don't have to worry about U-boats hampering the supply chain.
> 
> Might also be a good time to point out that yes, at the start of the invasion, everyone thought Ukraine was screwed because of Russia's might. And the numbers were certainly in their favor.
> 
> But then again, Operation Barbarossa was supposed to be a quick, overwhelming victory, too...



I was about to say the same thing. A war of attrition like this favors the defender. The attacker always makes huge gains at first. If the defender is not defeated outright and swiftly, the war bogs down and the tides turn. 

Barbarossa is a great example.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had.



Back to this…

Maybe I am mistaken, but weren’t you and Basket saying this back in the beginning as well? That Ukraine will lose in the end and should give up territory if needed to sue for peace? I might be wrong. Maybe it was just Basket.

Edit: I think it was The Basket. My apologies.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oh it will drag on well into 2023 and beyond, likely morphing into some sort of Ukrainian intifada resistance movement, but the Donbas and Sea of Azov coast from Crimea eastward will be forever lost by Oct, when the heavy artillery, MRLS, tanks, etc. Ukraine needed in April finally begin arriving in force.
> 
> At that time France and the other more spineless nations of the West will be rumbling that Ukraine needs to accept reality and whatever terms can be had, and begin reducing aid to Ukraine to force the matter.



I'd be cautious about words like "forever" and such. Absolutes rarely obtain in the real world.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 14, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I was about to say the same thing. A war of attrition like this favors the defender. The attacker always makes huge gains at first. If the defender is not defeated outright and swiftly, the war bogs down and the tides turn.
> 
> Barbarossa is a great example.


Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.

On paper, it looked like an easy win...

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## WARSPITER (Jun 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.
> 
> On paper, it looked like an easy win...


Good point. It's interesting how then as now the lack of logistic backup played such a big part. best description I've read as to the German attack
on the USSR was that the Wermacht was all teeth and no arse.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not only were German expectations high, but they invaded with history's largest invasion force.
> 
> On paper, it looked like an easy win...



I think many have forgotten history. That’s scary too..

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## Crimea_River (Jun 14, 2022)

"We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." - Adolf Hitler.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 14, 2022)

_“Peter the Great returned territories and fortified them. This destiny has also fallen to us,” Putin said last week, referring to Russia’s first emperor and his conquests. “It is our responsibility also to take back and strengthen.”_









Putin Nemesis Warns of Sinister Twist in Russian Attack Plan


(Photo by WANG Zhao / AFP)Russian President Vladimir Putin has been waging a devastating war in Ukraine for over three months now. But if Ukraine falls, he won’t stop there, Mikhail Kasyanov, who served as Putin’s first prime minister, said in an explosive new interview on Monday. “The Baltic...




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

_
LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops control about 80% of the fiercely contested eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk and have destroyed all three bridges leading out of it but Ukrainian authorities are still trying to evacuate the wounded, a regional official said Tuesday.

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the eastern Luhansk region, acknowledged that a mass evacuation of civilians from Sievierodonetsk now is "simply not possible" due to the relentless shelling and fighting. Ukrainian forces have been pushed to the industrial outskirts of the city because of "the scorched earth method and heavy artillery the Russians are using," he said.

"There is still an opportunity for the evacuation of the wounded, communication with the Ukrainian military and local residents," he told The Associated Press by telephone, adding that Russian forces have not yet completely blocked off the strategic city.

[...]

"The situation is difficult," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a news conference Tuesday with Danish media. "Our task is to fight back."_









Russians control 80% of key Ukraine city, cut escape routes


LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian troops control about 80% of the fiercely contested eastern city of Sievierodonetsk and have destroyed all three bridges leading out of it but Ukrainians were still trying to evacuate the wounded, a regional official said Tuesday.




apnews.com

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## WARSPITER (Jun 14, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." - Adolf Hitler.


Assumptions like that have come back to haunt others over time as well.

"The English channel is but a ditch. We have only to cross it." - Napoleon Bonaparte. (something like that).

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## Denniss (Jun 14, 2022)

Once the Ukrainians get the Panzerhaubitze 2000 into service I hope they will be properly accompanied by anti-air weapons. They'd be a prime target for satellite/drone spies and air attacks (assuming the'd stay out of enemy art range)

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Assumptions like that have come back to haunt others over time as well.
> 
> "The English channel is but a ditch. We have only to cross it." - Napoleon Bonaparte. (something like that).



One of the weaknesses of any autocracy is the tendency of the autocrat to believe and act on his own opinions, or those of the yes-men he has appointed. Diversity of views is certainly messier, but it may prevent a leader from running down the garden-path into oblivion.

In Darwinian evolution, a species which has a diverse gene-pool and has faced and survived many challenges is usually stronger for it. I think that the same principle probably holds true in human affairs.

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## GTX (Jun 14, 2022)

No escape for Ukrainian forces from key city, as Russia tells defenders to surrender or die


As the fight for the Donbas region intensifies, Ukraine's President says it will be remembered as "one of the most brutal battles" in European history.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Serhiy Haidai, governor of the eastern Luhansk region, acknowledged that a mass evacuation of civilians from Sievierodonetsk now is "simply not possible" _


Then they must be armed. Ukraine needs to model its military on Israel. Excluding children (and the Orthodox), everyone who can shoot has been or is a soldier, with citizens volunteering in the active reserves up to age 60. This is because the Israelis know that whomever invades isn't coming for land, but to murder every Israeli man, women and child, to finish the Holocaust (Holodomor for Ukrainians).

If Zelenskyy can arm, train and them mobilize another two million Ukrainian men and women, the Russians will be in trouble. That Russian retired coronel said as much on state TV, that once the Lend Lease arrives in force, the UAF will number two million and be unstoppable.






Accept Terms and Conditions on JSTOR


JSTOR is a digital library of academic journals, books, and primary sources.




www.jstor.org





_"Israel's military reserve system provides an indispensable base for sustaining the conscript and professional superstructure of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Since Israelis have historically found themselves surrounded by potentially hostile countries with much larger populations, they have designed a framework for quickly mobilizing large numbers of battle-ready forces in an emergency. As a result, Israeli planners have traditionally treated reservists as core combat troops—essential for any major operation—rather than as supplementary forces."_

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## GTX (Jun 14, 2022)

United Kingdom vows to do 'whatever it takes' to free Britons jailed in Ukraine


The UK says it will do whatever it takes to secure the release of two British prisoners sentenced to death in a breakaway state in eastern Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## rudicantfail (Jun 14, 2022)

I must admit, you would think that this present situation would seem a good time for Georgia and Chechnya to resume their opposition to russian interference in their own respective countries. If those two countries started military action against "russian occupiers', that would be a very major problem for putin. He would effectively have a war on two fronts, and I reckon that his military would be unable to cope. Come on Georgia, come on Chechnya, rise up against the Imperialist putin, and dig a grave for him.

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## rudicantfail (Jun 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Logistics is not magic, and it takes time (don't forget about training).
> 
> But, Iraq invaded Kuwait by August 2 and by February 28 the war was over. They handled 170,000 vehicles (including 12,000 armored) and 12,575 aircraft and almost a million men. Plus fuel ammo and food.
> 
> If only 1/5 of the logistic effort of the first gulf war was devoted to Ukrainia ....


You Sir, are quite correct. If only that could happen, Ukraine would stop and push back the russian hoards. It is shameful how Western countries promise so much, but fail to deliver. An example is Germany, promising to send {in May this year} Gepard anti aircraft weapon systems; IN JULY!!!!!!!!! Ukraine needs these systems now.  All these Western promised weapons are not arriving in time for Ukraine to protect itself. It is time to pull the finger out, and fast track military aid to Ukraine. How many more innocent Ukrainian civilians and military personnel have to die before we, the West, understand that this is real, this is deadly and this has to be a firm and unflinching stand against russian expansionism. If it to be peace in our time, it needs to start here, with giving Ukraine everything it requires to defeat russia.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> United Kingdom vows to do 'whatever it takes' to free Britons jailed in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The UK says it will do whatever it takes to secure the release of two British prisoners sentenced to death in a breakaway state in eastern Ukraine.
> ...


SAS rescue strike?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 14, 2022)

rudicantfail said:


> I must admit, you would think that this present situation would seem a good time for Georgia and Chechnya to resume their opposition to russian interference....


And for the Belarusians to rise up, including those serving in the forces. 









Belarusian military reluctant to join Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War


Belarus was widely expected to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine but indications are growing that the Belarusian military is strongly opposed to any involvement in Vladimir Putin's war of aggression.




www.atlanticcouncil.org













Odesa’s Defense Stiffened by Belarusian Volunteers


For hundreds who fled Minsk’s oppression, Ukraine’s fight has become theirs.




foreignpolicy.com













Won’t Get Fooled Again: Is Lukashenko Trying to Distance Himself From Russia?


Even if Lukashenko gets serious about attempting a new balancing act, he will first have to earn the right to be heard.




carnegieendowment.org

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## ThomasP (Jun 15, 2022)

Lukashenko is a POS, but he is not stupid, and he sees what is happening to Russia. The sabotage of the rail lines in Belarus during the first few weeks of the war took him by surprise. Belarus does not have the stability or resources that Russia has, and cannot afford to fight a war of attrition, even on a proportionately smaller scale. It is kind of like the poor having to pay the same % tax as the rich - 10% out of a million means the millionaire can not buy a yacht. 10% out of a thousand means the thousandaire has a choice between eating, keeping a roof over his head, or keeping clothes on his back. In other words, Belarus has very little available for discretionary spending.

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## ThomasP (Jun 15, 2022)

Something else involved in the supply of the heavier equipment to the Ukraine.

The majority of the US M113 platforms (again as an example) are not going to be fed piecemeal into the war. The current intent is to equip at least 2 units that will effectively become Mechanized Infantry Brigades. A large percentage of the other heavy weapons (such as the M109, FISTV, and HIMARS/MLRS platforms) being supplied by the US will also go to these units, making up the Brigade Support units. Pretty much all the equipment needed to build up these units is being arranged in one form or another. My understanding is that the other NATO countries are doing something similar with a significant percentage of their contributions. (My understanding is that a significant number of the Polish T-72 contribution will constitute the Tank Battalions attached to these Brigades.

Training involved in Heavy Brigade unit warfare is also taking place, with experienced UAF troops (drawn from units that have suffered significant losses) constituting the cores of the units, and additional green or less experienced Ukrainian troops being trained in as quickly as possible. The effect of such units will, if done properly, be a magnitude more than if most of the equipment were simply fed into the grinder in small numbers.

These types of units will be needed if the UAF is going go on the offensive, and kick the RF's ass hard enough to force it to withdraw from the Ukraine.

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## ThomasP (Jun 15, 2022)

re the Gepards

I may be wrong about this, but I believe the Gepards are being offered/supplied by a private company, not the German government. I know that the Gepards were purchased by a private company some years ago.

Edit: Krauss-Maffei Wegmann manufactured them originally, and bought the Gepards back with the intent of possible sales to other countries. They are also doing the training for the Ukrainians, rather than the German Army.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then they must be armed. Ukraine needs to model its military on Israel. Excluding children (and the Orthodox), everyone who can shoot has been or is a soldier, with citizens volunteering in the active reserves up to age 60. This is because the Israelis know that whomever invades isn't coming for land, but to murder every Israeli man, women and child, to finish the Holocaust (Holodomor for Ukrainians).
> 
> If Zelenskyy can arm, train and them mobilize another two million Ukrainian men and women, the Russians will be in trouble. That Russian retired coronel said as much on state TV, that once the Lend Lease arrives in force, the UAF will number two million and be unstoppable.
> 
> ...



Though we disagree on plenty of aspects of this war, you've written this idea out upthread as well and I have to say that I agree with you. When you live in a tough neighborhood, you gotta be tough to survive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 15, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Something else involved in the supply of the heavier equipment to the Ukraine.
> 
> The majority of the US M113 platforms (again as an example) are not going to be fed piecemeal into the war. The current intent is to equip at least 2 units that will effectively become Mechanized Infantry Brigades. A large percentage of the other heavy weapons (such as the M109, FISTV, and HIMARS/MLRS platforms) being supplied by the US will also go to these units, making up the Brigade Support units. Pretty much all the equipment needed to build up these units is being arranged in one form or another. My understanding is that the other NATO countries are doing something similar with a significant percentage of their contributions. (My understanding is that a significant number of the Polish T-72 contribution will constitute the Tank Battalions attached to these Brigades.
> 
> ...



Smart money, here. It fits in with what I wrote upthread about this battle being the Ukrainians fighting for time, as well. Thanks for putting it better than I had thought to.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 15, 2022)

_
The Hague, June 14 (Reuters) - NATO must build out "even higher readiness" and strengthen its weapons capabilities along its eastern border in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the military alliance's chief said on Tuesday.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was speaking after informal talks in the Netherlands with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the leaders of Denmark, Poland, Latvia, Romania, Portugal and Belgium ahead of a wider NATO summit in Madrid at the end of the month.


"In Madrid, we will agree a major strengthening of our posture," he said. "Tonight we discussed the need for more robust and combat-ready forward presence and an even higher readiness and more pre-positioned equipment and supplies."

Responding to a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier Tuesday for more long-range weapons, Stoltenberg said he agreed that Kyiv should be supplied with more heavy weaponry, but provided no details. 

Responding to a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier Tuesday for more long-range weapons, Stoltenberg said he agreed that Kyiv should be supplied with more heavy weaponry, but provided no details. read more


"Ukraine should have more heavy weapons and NATO allies and partners have provided heavy weapons ... and they are also stepping up," Stoltenberg said.

"In terms of weaponry, we stand united here that it is crucial for Russia to lose the war," Dutch leader Rutte told reporters in The Hague. "And as we cannot have a direct confrontation between NATO troops and Russia, what we need to do is make sure that Ukraine can fight that war, that it has access to all the necessary weaponry."_









NATO needs greater readiness, more weapons -military alliance chief


NATO must build out "even higher readiness" and strengthen its weapons capabilities along its eastern border in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the military alliance's chief said on Tuesday.




www.reuters.com





That "access" needs to be timely. How to balance that against also strengthening NATO's eastern front needs to be laid out in detail, because it's hard to feed two families from one kitchen.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Given the necessity and limits of logistics, it would seem that any MRLS, SPGs and AFVs promised to Ukraine today won't be in the UAF's frontline hands until at least 90 days.


M777 units were deployed on the frontline not later than April 28 on the 64th day of the invasion.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> At least we don't have to worry about U-boats hampering the supply chain.


Or we do not know what the new Battle of Atlantic (Pacific, Indian eventually?) will look like. 
NotPetya in 2017 hit many businesses worldwide with the immense impact on container shipping. Operations were paralysed for several days and it took weeks to clear the backlog.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then they must be armed. Ukraine needs to model its military on Israel. Excluding children (and the Orthodox), everyone who can shoot has been or is a soldier, with citizens volunteering in the active reserves up to age 60. This is because the Israelis know that whomever invades isn't coming for land, but to murder every Israeli man, women and child, to finish the Holocaust (Holodomor for Ukrainians).
> 
> If Zelenskyy can arm, train and them mobilize another two million Ukrainian men and women, the Russians will be in trouble. That Russian retired coronel said as much on state TV, that once the Lend Lease arrives in force, the UAF will number two million and be unstoppable.
> 
> ...


Civilians who can not be evacuated must be helped not armed. 
As for the rest, there are Territorial Defence and reserve. Mobilisation will continue but 2 mln is a tall order.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

"Germany wants to deliver three Mars II rocket launchers to Ukraine instead of the four previously discussed . According to information from Business Insider, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) wants to announce the plan at the meeting of EU defense ministers on Wednesday. According to reports, the German rocket launchers from Bundeswehr stocks should be handed over to Ukraine in August/September." (Google Translate)








Deal mit den USA macht es möglich: Lambrecht kündigt auf Nato-Treffen die Lieferung von drei Mars-II-Raketenwerfern an


Deutschland will der Ukraine drei Raketenwerfer vom Typ Mars II liefern. Der Deal funktioniert aber nur, weil die USA bei einem Softwareproblem helfen.




www.businessinsider.de

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Civilians who can not be evacuated must be helped not armed.


Depends on their ability. I’m 51 years old, in good health. I haven’t fired a gun since the .22 sleeved SMLE we used in Army Cadets in the 1980s. But assuming weapons can be had, the only help I’d need were Russians invading my town is a quick lesson on the workings of the Kalashnikov along with ammunition, and maybe a sandwich.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Depends on their ability. I’m 51 years old, in good health. I haven’t fired a gun since the .22 sleeved SMLE we used in Army Cadets in the 1980s. But assuming weapons can be had, the only help I’d need were Russians invading my town is a quick lesson on the workings of the Kalashnikov along with ammunition, and maybe a sandwich.



Until the rounds start flying, and mortars whistling in, and you shit yourself…

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Until the rounds start flying, and mortars whistling in, and you shit yourself…


Absolutely. Like any civilian first shot at, I assume. But soiled shorts or not, and with no chance of escape, a civilian’s options are to hide, waiting to be found and murdered, or fight. Fight or hide, it’s a choice all the trapped civilians must make. There is no flight option.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Absolutely. Like any civilian first shot at, I assume. But soiled shorts or not, and with no chance of escape, a civilian’s options are to hide, waiting to be found and murdered, or fight. Fight or flight, it’s a choice all the trapped civilians must make.



That applies to many in uniform as well.


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## special ed (Jun 15, 2022)

School girls in Israel.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

US security assistance to Ukraine, update from US Embassy.

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## Dimlee (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Absolutely. Like any civilian first shot at, I assume. But soiled shorts or not, and with no chance of escape, a civilian’s options are to hide, waiting to be found and murdered, or fight. Fight or hide, it’s a choice all the trapped civilians must make. There is no flight option.



In this war, the typical message to civilians from the Army is: "The sooner you leave the combat zone, the easier for us to do our job. Please support us - but from a safe place". 
At the end of the day, it is a personal choice. There are conflicting reports about the usefulness of untrained civilians in urban combat in Ukraine. There are positive examples and negative and tragic ones. Over 30 men in Kherson were killed in a brief fight with invading force on March 01. They stood no chance.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> In this war, the typical message to civilians from the Army is: "The sooner you leave the combat zone, the easier for us to do our job. Please support us - but from a safe place".
> At the end of the day, it is a personal choice. There are conflicting reports about the usefulness of untrained civilians in urban combat in Ukraine. There are positive examples and negative and tragic ones. Over 30 men in Kherson were killed in a brief fight with invading force on March 01. They stood no chance.




I completely can understand their point. Untrained civilians playing soldier on the battlefield can be more of a hinderance, and put the lives of the professional soldiers at greater risk.

Having said that, I can completely understand why a civilian would want to take up arms and defend their home.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 15, 2022)

Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles


Weapons manufacturers in China are likely to benefit most from Russia’s losses, while US companies will also see a boon.




theconversation.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Global arms industry getting shakeup by war in Ukraine – and China and US look like winners from Russia’s stumbles
> 
> 
> Weapons manufacturers in China are likely to benefit most from Russia’s losses, while US companies will also see a boon.
> ...


I think this war as reminded both sides of how quickly stocks of munitions are used and how the slow pace of replenishment will cause issues. The US claims to have sent 200,000 rounds of ammunition for the M77 howitzers. However that might last a month or less, and then what? Are more being sent? A third of the US' Javelin's have been sent to Ukraine, where I assume most have already been used. How fast can more be had? On the Russian side, how can they hope to ever replace the thousands of tanks and AFVs they've lost? 

I wonder what the Russia stocks of artillery shells is looking like. Can they keep up their bombardments to the autumn?


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## SaparotRob (Jun 15, 2022)

Raytheon. Stock symbol (RTX).

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## GTX (Jun 15, 2022)

US government funding tech to help Russians evade censors and access Western media on Ukraine war


Three VPN firms that receive funding through a US government program have seen significant growth in users in Russia since the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, as Russians seek to evade bans on Western media and information the Kremlin deems "fake".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 15, 2022)

special ed said:


> School girls in Israel.
> 
> 
> View attachment 673761


School or older doing national service?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> School or older doing national service?


In my experience in Israel, mind you back in 2005, you never saw civilians walking around with firearms. Back then, it was the job of the uniformed soldiers, including reservists and security forces. Things did change in 2006 though. 









Students in Israel Don’t Carry Guns to Class, Contrary to Social Media Posts - FactCheck.org


Israel has established strict measures in response to armed attacks on its schoolchildren. But social media posts falsely claim there have been "no school shootings in Israel" and use a photo to misleadingly suggest students carry weapons to class. Only guards and other specific personnel -- not...




www.factcheck.org





_"In 2006, the report noted, soldiers were prohibited from bringing home their service weapons on weekends because of high suicide rates among the IDF. This restriction was reversed in 2016 after IDF Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot issued an order that all IDF combat soldiers must carry their weapons — on or off duty, in uniform or out of uniform — in response to a rise in violence at the time. The bottom line is the individuals in the photo shared on social media *are not school kids taking weapons to class, but apparently trained members of the military.*"_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 15, 2022)

_KYIV/NIU-YORK, Ukraine, June 15 (Reuters) - Ukraine ignored a Russian ultimatum to surrender the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk on Wednesday as the United States announced more weapons for Kyiv and urged its allies also not to "lose steam" in providing military support.

Sievierodonetsk, now largely in ruins, has for weeks been the main focal point of the war. Russia had told Ukrainian forces holed up in a chemical plant there to stop "senseless resistance and lay down arms" from Wednesday morning, pressing its advantage in the battle for control of eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine says more than 500 civilians, including 40 children, remain alongside soldiers inside the Azot chemical factory, sheltering from weeks of almost constant Russian bombardment.

The mayor of Sievierodonetsk, Oleksandr Stryuk, said Russian forces were trying to storm the city from several directions but the Ukrainians continued to defend it and were not totally cut off, even though all its river bridges had been destroyed.

"The situation is difficult but stable," he told Ukrainian television. "The escape routes are dangerous, but there are some." He made no reference to Russia's ultimatum.

[...]

U.S. President Joe Biden later announced $1 billion worth of new weapons aid for Ukraine that sources familiar with the package said included anti-ship rocket systems, artillery rockets and rounds for howitzers.

Biden, who spoke with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy by phone on Wednesday, also announced an additional $225 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

[...]

Kyiv has said 100-200 of its soldiers are being killed every day, with hundreds more wounded in some of the bloodiest fighting since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion._









Ukraine ignores Sievierodonetsk ultimatum, urges faster arms deliveries


Ukraine ignored a Russian ultimatum to surrender the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk on Wednesday as the United States announced more weapons for Kyiv, which warned that arms deliveries were taking too long.




www.reuters.com





So more arty ammunition is on the way, which may address the concerns expressed above.

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## GTX (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> _*are not school kids taking weapons to class, but apparently trained members of the military.*"_


That's what I suspected.


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## GrauGeist (Jun 15, 2022)

IDF soldiers and reservists carry their weapons at all times.

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## Juha3 (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think this war as reminded both sides of how quickly stocks of munitions are used and how the slow pace of replenishment will cause issues. The US claims to have sent 200,000 rounds of ammunition for the M77 howitzers. However that might last a month or less, and then what? Are more being sent? A third of the US' Javelin's have been sent to Ukraine, where I assume most have already been used. How fast can more be had? On the Russian side, how can they hope to ever replace the thousands of tanks and AFVs they've lost?
> 
> I wonder what the Russia stocks of artillery shells is looking like. Can they keep up their bombardments to the autumn?


Russian had storage of appr. 7,000 T-72s before the beginning of their attack and clearly also some T-62s. And they had massive storages of arty ammo and capacity to produce more, probably much larger scale than any Western power.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> School or older doing national service?



They are not school kids.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

Juha3 said:


> Russian had storage of appr. 7,000 T-72s before the beginning of their attack and clearly also some T-62s. And they had massive storages of arty ammo and capacity to produce more, probably much larger scale than any Western power.


I wonder how many of those stockpiles of tanks and ammunition were properly maintained and preserved. I wonder if the arrival of the T-62 demonstrates a shortage of T-72s. 

I imagine if M1 Abrams started to be replaced with M48 and M60 tanks the local lads would be wondering what the heck happened to their first rate tanks.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> School or older doing national service?


Older. And highly regulated and controlled under military regulations just like Switzerland.


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## Juha3 (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder how many of those stockpiles of tanks and ammunition were properly maintained and preserved. I wonder if the arrival of the T-62 demonstrates a shortage of T-72s.
> 
> I imagine if M1 Abrams started to be replaced with M48 and M60 tanks the local lads would be wondering what the heck happened to their first rate tanks.


I also wonder that in the case of T-72s. Arty ammo are more durable. IIRC Finns used their WWII stocks in arty training up to late 90s or early 2000s.
On the other hand at the end of one exercise our staff sgt said to me "We are not carrying those pre-war Italian propellant charge bags back to our base, are we? So take your section and do something to them." So I did. I was a sapper/combat engineer corporal. Because we were traditionally nearer to German Pionier than Anglo-American sapper/combat engineer our training was more combat and less engineering oriented, in fact our duties were very much same as those of 1944 British Army Assault Pionier. That happened mid 70s, so those propellant charge bags were some 40+ years old, still gave a bang but probably not as big bang as in early 40s.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Older. And highly regulated and controlled under military regulations just like Switzerland.



My brother in law is from Switzerland and lives in Zurich. When he did his compulsory service hid firearm and one box of ammo was in his closet at home.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My brother in law is from Switzerland and lives in Zurich. When he did his compulsory service hid firearm and one box of ammo was in his closet at home.


Switzerland should serve as an example to US Second Amendment fans how to have a proliferation of firearms and yet remain extremely gun safe. I wonder what direction Ukraine will go in arming its civilians once this war is over, or temporarily paused.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Switzerland should serve as an example to US Second Amendment fans how to have a proliferation of firearms and yet remain extremely gun safe. I wonder what direction Ukraine will go in arming its civilians once this war is over, or temporarily paused.


The gun nuts stop loving Switzerland when they find out how tightly regulated firearms and ammo are, how strict the licensing requirements are after mandatory service and how you can only take them back and forth to regulated ranges. 

The rules in the Czech Republic would be perfectly legal under the 2nd Amendment while still allowing a very American style gun culture. But we're getting dangerously into political water here so this topic really should be dropped.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 15, 2022)

Yes, lets drop the topic please.

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## Juha3 (Jun 15, 2022)

One thought about T-62. During the South Ossetian War 14 years ago, the Russian 58 Army used some T-62s, perhaps still a few units of the Russian Army have been equipped with them in some back-water areas, so more easily transferred to Ukraine than some T-72s from storage. In Ukraine, T-62Ms (so up-armoured so that their frontal sector is more or less immune to light A/T weapons of 1970s such as RPG-7 and early Carl Gustavs) and T-62MVs (reactive armor) have been observed in Kherson and Melitopol areas, that is, not in the areas of the fiercest fighting. In addition, it is probably the only tank used by the Russians with a 115 mm cannon and probably there are plenty of 115 mm ammunition in the magazines in Russia. Its APFSDS might still be useful and definitely I'd not like to be at the receiving end of 115 mm HE-FRAG fire.

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## WARSPITER (Jun 15, 2022)

Yes. The T-62 tanks are more likely to be used to try to cover quieter areas and protect lines of communication.
As far as taking on more modern tanks the T-62's best rating would be mediocre.


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## at6 (Jun 16, 2022)

It would be better to send the weapons and not tell anyone. That way the Russians would have no idea as to what upgraded Ukrainian capabilties are when they have the weapons. Russia does not need to know what they are up against. It would far more satisfying to give them a really nasty surprise.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

at6 said:


> It would be better to send the weapons and not tell anyone. That way the Russians would have no idea as to what upgraded Ukrainian capabilties are when they have the weapons. Russia does not need to know what they are up against. It would far more satisfying to give them a really nasty surprise.



They have satellites.

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## at6 (Jun 16, 2022)

Disguise the weapons as UPS Trucks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

at6 said:


> Disguise the weapons as UPS Trucks.



I guess that makes sense -- 90 days late and all.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 16, 2022)

There's alot of things going on behind the curtain, which isn't broadcast.

I am a bit irritated at the media's clamoring for every last detail, as I've mentioned before, Saddam Hussein said that his best Intel was CNN...

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am a bit irritated at the media's clamoring for every last detail, as I've mentioned before


The perpetual dilemma of a free society; balancing the public's need (and right) to know against the need for operational security and tactical flexibility. Faith in the competence and integrity of the powers that be is no longer the given that it once was. I wonder how WWII would have turned out if we had been blessed with today's intrusive and skeptical media back then.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 16, 2022)

On CNN last night they showed for the first time the interior of the Ukraine support team office. It was impressive to see dozens of logisticians with flags from across the alliance working their best to get weapons into Ukrainian hands. It will be interesting to see what the UAF looks like by September.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They have satellites.


Does any electronics made by Russia operate per spec?


GrauGeist said:


> Saddam Hussein said that his best Intel was CNN...


And a lot of good that did him.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 16, 2022)

Putin meets European leaders in Kyiv: missile threat almost everywhere in Ukraine


Roman Petrenko - Thursday, 16 June 2022, 10:59 Russian leader Vladimir Putin decided to launch missiles during the Kyiv visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Jun 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does any electronics made by Russia operate per spec?


Our Garmin, using GLONASS, was extremely accurate when I was in Europe.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does any electronics made by Russia operate per spec?



Do you fight a war by assuming the worst about your enemy? Especially when it comes to opsec, you err on the side of caution. Few wars have been won by underestimating one's opponent.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

_President Biden told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken in April to tone down their rhetoric in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia, NBC News reported Thursday. 

The pushback reportedly came after the Pentagon chief said the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to win the war against the Kremlin and that the U.S. wanted a weakened Russia that could not launch another attack. Blinken then publicly aligned himself with Austin's comments, sparking a flurry of news reports. 

"We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine," Austin said at the time after the Cabinet members visited Kyiv.

During a later conference call, Biden told the two officials he thought their remarks went too far and to tone them down, multiple current and former administration officials familiar with the call told NBC. 

One unidentified official told the network that Biden was concerned that Austin's words could set unrealistic goals and up the chance Washington could get pulled into a direct conflict with Moscow._



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3525893-biden-told-austin-blinken-to-tone-down-remarks-supporting-ukraine-report/



While I understand Biden's concerns, I'm more of a damn-the-torpedoes kinda guy.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 16, 2022)

We all want to see Russia curbed, but it should be done quietly.

Statements that reflect that goal only encourages Putler and his inner circle of clowns to double-down.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> We all want to see Russia curbed, but it should be done quietly.
> 
> Statements that reflect that goal only encourages Putler and his inner circle of clowns to double-down.


Putin just launched missiles at Kyiv whilst the leaders of France, Germany and Italy are in the city. Sounds like he's already doubling down.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 16, 2022)

Without thinking it through, I would’ve liked a couple of near misses just to wake Macron up.

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## Dimlee (Jun 16, 2022)

Interesting. Probably, UAVs become a part of the defence against low-flying aircraft. Easier to spot them in time.
Mi-24 shot down by Azov soldier somewhere in the South.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Without thinking it through, I would’ve liked a couple of near misses just to wake Macron up.


That was what I was thinking. Hope the missiles wake the western europeans leaders.

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## GTX (Jun 16, 2022)

A humanitarian corridor will open for civilians at the Azot chemical plant. What do we know about the plant under Russian attack?


In a siege similar to the Mariupol steelworks, hundreds of Ukrainian civilians are believed to have taken shelter inside a chemical plant in the Luhansk region.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Jun 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Switzerland should serve as an example to US Second Amendment fans how to have a proliferation of firearms and yet remain extremely gun safe. I wonder what direction Ukraine will go in arming its civilians once this war is over, or temporarily paused.


20,000 AKs in Kyiv were distributed to civilians in the first week of the invasion. Police was surprised to see no increase in street crime.
There are several drafts of the new gun law in Parliament now. Still no consensus, but the "pro-gun" lobby is much stronger today.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 20,000 AKs were distributed to civilians in the first week of the invasion. Police was surprised to see no increase in street crime.


I would be a little wary, perhaps unfairly so about arming possible separatists among my community. Do we pre-judge anyone who may speak Russian as their first language, which is a good portion of Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to care about bombing the crap out of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, so this may be driving those people closer to Kyiv anyway.

Or does everyone get a gun? What's the means test?


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## Dimlee (Jun 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They have satellites.


I wonder how often Russian low orbit satellites pass over Ukraine and how much territory they cover with a satisfactory resolution.


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## Dimlee (Jun 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I would be a little wary, perhaps unfairly so about arming possible separatists among my community. Do we pre-judge anyone who may speak Russian as their first language, which is a good portion of Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to care about bombing the crap out of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, so this may be driving those people closer to Kyiv anyway.
> 
> Or does everyone get a gun? What's the means test?


Good questions. There will be checks and tests. The applicant is supposed to spend some time at the firing range before the permit is issued.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 16, 2022)

There's just something about women with guns.









Miss Ukraine, Anastasiia Lenna also joins the fight to defend her country


As we keep finding unlikely heroes in Ukraine's defense of the country against Russia, it's time for you to meet Miss Ukraine: Anastasiia Lenna. We've already seen how urban legend




www.marca.com

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## GTX (Jun 16, 2022)

Days before dying in Ukraine, an Australian man told a reporter of the need to 'eradicate' Russian 'bullies'


In an interview with a Ukrainian reporter, a Tasmanian man says he quit his job and "just jumped on the plane" to help the war effort against the Russian invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 16, 2022)

Netherlands says Russian spy caught using fake persona to secure war crimes court internship


The Dutch intelligence service says Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov created an elaborate cover story dating back years to try to enter the Netherlands as a Brazilian national for an internship at the Hague-based ICC.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Without thinking it through, I would’ve liked a couple of near misses just to wake Macron up.



He definitely needs an alarm-clock.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I wonder how often Russian low orbit satellites pass over Ukraine and how much territory they cover with a satisfactory resolution.



I don't know. I know that SALT II restrictions on my base, in Texas, after the 7 BW demobilized, meant that we had daily overpasses verifying that our B-52s weren't uploaded on alert status. That implies a resolution of, at worst, a few inches.

Can't say anything about Russian satellite overpasses over Ukraine, but I can and will say that launching this invasion without satellite overview would make the Russians out to be even stupider than they seem.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There's just something about women with guns.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Something I want no part of!


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## wlewisiii (Jun 16, 2022)

Interesting...

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## SaparotRob (Jun 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Interesting. Probably, UAVs become a part of the defence against low-flying aircraft. Easier to spot them in time.
> Mi-24 shot down by Azov soldier somewhere in the South.



At least he managed to avoid the trees.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 16, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Interesting...



I liked the responses to tweet. Burn baby, Burn!

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## ThomasP (Jun 17, 2022)

As of my posting this, Krasnyi Luch ammunition depot is still on fire and blowing up.

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## ThomasP (Jun 17, 2022)

The US is currently working on modifying G/VLLDs for use with Ukrainian laser designated weapons, while keeping the ability to designate for NATO laser designated weapons. 

For those not already familiar with the system, this is the laser designator used with the tripod in the man portable version, or while mounted on vehicles like the M113 based FIST vehicles. It can be said that the G/VLLD allows line-of-sight designation to the horizon. Basically, if the object can be clearly seen by the designator user, it can be targeted - including at night using an integrated thermal imaging sight.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 17, 2022)

Ukraine claims that it sank a logistics ship with a Harpoon anti-ship missile.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> As of my posting this, Krasnyi Luch ammunition depot is still on fire and blowing up.


Nothing in the news about this. A lot of reposts on social media, including Twitter though.


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## Denniss (Jun 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Ukraine claims that it sank a logistics ship with a Harpoon anti-ship missile.


The Snake has bitten again. Highly dangerous area for russian ships and aircraft but they try again and again.

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## ThomasP (Jun 17, 2022)

The video shows 2 missile hits. The 2nd missile comes in at ~0:10.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2022)

Wasn’t that ship just a tug? If so, two missiles is a lot to spend on it.

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## WARSPITER (Jun 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Wasn’t that ship just a tug? If so, two missiles is a lot to spend on it.


True but now the aircraft carrier can't go anywhere since it has no engine coz that was in the tug.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Wasn’t that ship just a tug? If so, two missiles is a lot to spend on it.


It was being used as a transport for supplies, munitions and personnel.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The video shows 2 missile hits. The 2nd missile comes in at ~0:10.


Let's not accept anything not first confirmed and then reported.


RogerdeLluria said:


> It's seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles is True....


This did not age well. It's better to wait.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 17, 2022)

Russian boat reportedly sunk while bringing supplies to Black Sea island made famous by Ukrainian guards


A Russian military tugboat carrying a surface-to-air missile launcher to Snake Island in the Black Sea sank after two Ukrainian missiles struck it, Kyiv announced Friday.




www.stripes.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let's not accept anything not first confirmed and then reported.
> 
> *This did not age well.* It's better to wait.



That happens when parts of a message are deliberately removed and sentences taken out of context. I copy whole message for you, with sentence in bold suggesting exactly, that we still need to wait for confirmation.



RogerdeLluria said:


> It's seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it.
> *Though so far this is still not 100% Confirmed.*

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 17, 2022)

New pictures of old incident. Reportedly, pictures of the ship struck by MLRS off Odessa coast on March 7.








New photos show damaged Russian corvette after Ukrainian forces attack


New photos emerged early Friday on social media showing Russia's Buyan-M-class corvette, reportedly the Velikiy Ustyug, "slightly" damaged in an attack by Ukrainian Forces off the Odesa coast. The images show the Velikiy Ustyug corvette redeploying from the Azov Sea to Caspian for repairs...




defence-blog.com





_Russian officials denied that one of its warships was damaged, but new photos confirm that the corvette received numerous shrapnel damage consistent with multiple rocket launchers._

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 17, 2022)

Dont take it bad Roger. I think most of us do not trust any news of whatever side it comes from. I did see you said it was unconfirmed. Beez is just extra carefull. I do not think it directed to you, just a general thing. Keep on posting.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It was being used as a transport for supplies, munitions and personnel.



Then that would make it a very good target of opportunity.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russian boat reportedly sunk while bringing supplies to Black Sea island made famous by Ukrainian guards
> 
> 
> A Russian military tugboat carrying a surface-to-air missile launcher to Snake Island in the Black Sea sank after two Ukrainian missiles struck it, Kyiv announced Friday.
> ...



Interesting.

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## Denniss (Jun 17, 2022)

Anything trying to transport AA Assets to Snake island needs to be blown out of the water. One way or another. If they run out of missiles they'd need a sea-skimming SU-25 with rockets to do the job

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

Regarding other nations pressuring Ukraine to concede territory for peace:

_Ukrainians and some of their European neighbors have been afraid that Western powers might press for territorial concessions for the sake of peace.

Scholz reiterated that there is no such intent to dictate anything to Ukrainians, and that only they "can decide what is right in terms of an agreement on a peace which we are unfortunately very, very far away from."

[...]

"We want the atrocities to stop and we want peace," Draghi said. "But Ukraine must defend itself, and it will be Ukraine that chooses the peace it wants."_









Leaders pledge arms and EU path for Ukraine in Kyiv visit


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Four European leaders expressed their support for Ukraine on Thursday while meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, vowing to back Kyiv's candidacy to eventually join the European Union and offering more weapons to fend off Russia's invasion.




apnews.com





... and ...

_
PARIS, June 16 (Reuters) - Ukraine alone should decide whether or not to accept any territorial concessions towards Russia in view of ending the war, French President Emmanuel Macron told TF1 television in an interview as he visited Kyiv.

"This is up to Ukraine to decide," Macron said when asked what concessions, including on its territory, Ukraine should accept, adding: "I think it is our duty to stand by our values, by international law and thus by Ukraine."_









France's Macron says up to Ukraine to decide on potential territorial concessions


Ukraine alone should decide whether or not to accept any territorial concessions towards Russia in view of ending the war, French President Emmanuel Macron told TF1 television in an interview as he visited Kyiv.




www.reuters.com





... and:

_
WASHINGTON. June 1 (Interfax) - The United States will not pressure Ukraine to make any territorial concessions to Russia, U.S. President Joe Biden said.

"My principle throughout this crisis has been 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'. I will not pressure the Ukrainian government - in private or public - to make any territorial concessions. It would be wrong and contrary to well-settled principles to do so," Biden said in an article published by the New York Times._






U.S. not to pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia - Biden







interfax.com





So it would seem that for the time being Western arms shipments will not be tied to any demands for Ukraine accepting partial dismemberment.

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## Dimlee (Jun 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The US is currently working on modifying G/VLLDs for use with Ukrainian laser designated weapons, while keeping the ability to designate for NATO laser designated weapons.
> 
> For those not already familiar with the system, this is the laser designator used with the tripod in the man portable version, or while mounted on vehicles like the M113 based FIST vehicles. It can be said that the G/VLLD allows line-of-sight designation to the horizon. Basically, if the object can be clearly seen by the designator user, it can be targeted - including at night using an integrated thermal imaging sight.


Hopefully, they will be carried by UAVs in future.

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## Dimlee (Jun 17, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Anything trying to transport AA Assets to Snake island needs to be blown out of the water. One way or another. If they run out of missiles they'd need a sea-skimming SU-25 with rockets to do the job


Or let them bring more assets and then hit the island with MLRS from several directions. The perfect stationary target for the training.

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## Dimlee (Jun 17, 2022)

Probably, the first disclosure of the Ukraine's losses in vehicles and artillery.
_"As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems."_
About maintenance and repair:
_"The equipment doesn't stop being operational because it's used up. It stops being operational because of constant artillery shelling... 
For example, the M777 artillery systems are really prone to being damaged by enemy artillery. For every battery of M777, there are six pieces.
After every artillery contact, we have to take two artillery pieces and take them back to the rear to maintain them because some of the subsystems are damaged by shrapnel. This happens every day."_





Ukraine to U.S.Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons


Ukraine to U.S. Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons




www.nationaldefensemagazine.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Probably, the first disclosure of the Ukraine's losses in vehicles and artillery.
> _"As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems."_



Ouch.

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## GTX (Jun 17, 2022)

Russians increasingly turning against Ukraine war, says Nobel Prize-winning journalist


Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov is auctioning his golden medal to help the millions of Ukrainians displaced by his country's war, saying he wants to preserve their future and demonstrate human solidarity.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 17, 2022)

Satellite images appear to show Russian-flagged ships transporting Ukrainian grain to Syria


Images from Maxar Technologies show two Russian-flagged bulk carrier ships being loaded with grain in the Russian-controlled Crimean port of Sevastopol before being spotted in Syria several days later, with trucks lined up to collect the crop.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 17, 2022)

Ukraine a step closer to EU membership after commission backs candidate status


EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Ukraine has demonstrated its determination to live up to European values and standards, as the leaders of Germany, France and Italy wrap up their trip in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Satellite images appear to show Russian-flagged ships transporting Ukrainian grain to Syria
> 
> 
> Images from Maxar Technologies show two Russian-flagged bulk carrier ships being loaded with grain in the Russian-controlled Crimean port of Sevastopol before being spotted in Syria several days later, with trucks lined up to collect the crop.
> ...



Stealing Ukrainian grain in order to prop up another vicious dictator. Scum.

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## fubar57 (Jun 17, 2022)

Legit targets ala the Iraqi departure from Kuwait

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Legit targets ala the Iraqi departure from Kuwait



If only Ukraine could target them.

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## fubar57 (Jun 17, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/european-union-commission-ukraine-membership-1.6491999

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## GrauGeist (Jun 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If only Ukraine could target them.


Que the "Bayraktar song"...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Que the "Bayraktar song"...



They might be busy elsewhere ...


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## GrauGeist (Jun 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They might be busy elsewhere ...


Perhaps.

But if Maxar sees it, the Ukraine military also sees it.









News Bureau


The Maxar News Bureau is a partnership program with trusted and respected media organizations that leverages technology for social good and global transparency.




www.maxar.com

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## GTX (Jun 17, 2022)

Why Putin might be pleased with the results of his war in Ukraine | The Strategist


As we reflect on the 100-day mark of the Russo-Ukrainian war and what we’ve learned, we need to understand that the West has fundamentally misunderstood Russia and continues to do so, argues Kyle Wilson, visiting ...




www.aspistrategist.org.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Perhaps.
> 
> But if Maxar sees it, the Ukraine military also sees it.
> 
> ...



Not arguing the facts, just thinking that with dire circumstances in the Donbas, trade interdiction might have a lesser seat at the table.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Why Putin might be pleased with the results of his war in Ukraine | The Strategist
> 
> 
> As we reflect on the 100-day mark of the Russo-Ukrainian war and what we’ve learned, we need to understand that the West has fundamentally misunderstood Russia and continues to do so, argues Kyle Wilson, visiting ...
> ...



If that's an accurate read of Putin's views, I'm still not convinced. "We can break things" is not the same as "we can conquer things", and I think there's a real possibility that Putin has misjudged his own nation's strength.

Even if Russia takes all of Ukraine, it will suck the life out of the Russian economy, fighting for control of Ukraine in the face of an inevitable insurgency.

Putin may not care about the Russian peons, but they will sure care about him. 1917 and 1991 both put this outlook to the test. If Putin's war here sucks the air out of the economy, what's to protect him? The gendarmerie? They might hold true, or they might consider the privations of their moms etc. The intelligence services? After he's abused them the last few months? The military, after he's bled them in this war?

Even if Russia conquers Ukraine, Russia will see no profit for at least a couple of decades, by which point Putin will be dead anyway. And any successor will likely be struggling to separate himself from this self-induced catastrophe, which will be Putin's legacy.

His decision to invade has set his country back decades and there's no political argumentation that will change that. The Russian military will be unable to act outside defensive operations for quite some time, and the Russian economy will have to cope with sanctions unless and until they cease fire and remove from this invasion, in all likelihood.

He can wish for Imperial Russia again all he wants, but he played his hand too soon, when his country lacked the power to enforce it, I think. He'll be dead in a few years and his successor will be wondering what it takes to remove sanctions. Bully for you, Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He can wish for Imperial Russia again all he wants, but he played his hand too soon, when his country lacked the power to enforce it, I think.


What’s the appeal of Imperial Russia anyway? They didn’t exactly bring glory to Russia. Not in the Industrial Age anyway.


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## WARSPITER (Jun 17, 2022)

That is so because Imperial always starts with an Imp.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What’s the appeal of Imperial Russia anyway? They didn’t exactly bring glory to Russia. Not in the Industrial Age anyway.



While their rulership was miserable, to put it mildly, I think the appeal is that that is when Russia was expansionist. They were conquering Irkutsk and Siberia.

Think of the American drive westward in the era of Manifest Destiny. We Americans will pat ourselves on the back and tell ourselves just-so stories. The Russians have that mythos in their own history too, to an extent. Their eastward expansion into Siberia is a story that hasn't really been told here in the West, but it captures much of the same vibe.

Russia was actually industrializing at a good clip in the late-19th/early-20th century, too, according to Paul Kennedy in _Rise and Fall of the Great Powers_. Remember, that although their track-mileage and steel output was far behind America or the UK, they could still build battleships, and indeed built the first heavy bomber in the world.

Imperial Russia was a time when Russia had stature in world affairs, and swung some weight even after their defeat in 1905. Putin is, I think, trying to redress their significant loss of gravitas over the last thirty years, while trying to avoid the potential allusions to the dissolution of the USSR. In other words, he's going far back enough that arguing the facts will be hard, and so instead he gets to promulgate the myth unfettered.

That's my take on it.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Why Putin might be pleased with the results of his war in Ukraine | The Strategist
> 
> 
> As we reflect on the 100-day mark of the Russo-Ukrainian war and what we’ve learned, we need to understand that the West has fundamentally misunderstood Russia and continues to do so, argues Kyle Wilson, visiting ...
> ...


Now, that's what I call hull down!

Yes, I know. Technically, it's "turret down". But, whatever.

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## WARSPITER (Jun 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> While their rulership was miserable, to put it mildly, I think the appeal is that that is when Russia was expansionist. They were conquering Irkutsk and Siberia.
> 
> Think of the American drive westward in the era of Manifest Destiny. We Americans will pat ourselves on the back and tell ourselves just-so stories. The Russians have that mythos in their own history too, to an extent. Their eastward expansion into Siberia is a story that hasn't really been told here in the West, but it captures much of the same vibe.
> 
> ...


Interesting points as Australia was affected as well. In 1900 we federated to become a nation. One of the crown princes ? of Russia was at the reading of the
proclamation and is in the (in Australia) well known picture of said event.

He came to Oz in a warship and it was a state visit. All good so far.

Then, and this couldn't possibly happen today..... some political person/s and the media of the time started a scare campaign saying he was here because
Russia had designs on Australia.

A bit far fetched at the least but by the time the hype died down the new Australian government had built forts around our coast because the 'Russians were coming'.

Whether it was a quick way to install national identity or to increase newspaper sales I don't know but there you have it. The forts in Albany have been fixed up
as a tourist attraction so historically it's quite useful to be able to view.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 18, 2022)

Denys Davydov's YouTube episode from 24 May "ruzzians don't know what to do" has a great video by Ukrainian soldiers performing it. About the 11:30 mark.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 18, 2022)

_ST LOUIS, Missouri, June 17 (Reuters) - The Biden administration's plan to sell four large, armable drones to Ukraine has been paused on the fear its sophisticated surveillance equipment might fall into enemy hands, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The technical objection to the sale was raised during a deeper review by the Pentagon's Defense Technology Security Administration charged with keeping high value technology safe from enemy hands. Previously the plan, which has been circulating since March, had been approved by the White House, three people said._









U.S. drone sale to Ukraine hits snag


The Biden administration's plan to sell four large, armable drones to Ukraine has been paused on the fear its sophisticated surveillance equipment might fall into enemy hands, according to two people familiar with the matter.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 18, 2022)

_
KYIV, June 18 (Reuters) - Russia is sending a large number of reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk from other battle zones to try to gain full control of the frontline eastern city, the governor of Ukraine's Luhansk region said on Saturday.

"Today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, they will throw in all the reserves they have ... because there are so many of them there already, they're at critical mass," Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said on national television.


He said Russian forces already controlled most but not all of Sievierodonetsk._









Russia sending large number of reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian governor says


Russia is sending a large number of reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk from other battle zones to try to gain full control of the frontline eastern city, the governor of Ukraine's Luhansk region said on Saturday.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Jun 18, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Quite a lot of them in Vietnam towing L5 Howitzers - fuel tanks and e.g. KW45 generators also in Germany in the 60'ies till 80's on the way to maneuvers areas.
> Why in the first place they send these obsolete APC's to Ukraine I wouldn't know - instead of e.g. Bradley's. For medivac an M113 is certainly useful.
> 
> One can also transport e.g. a L5 howitzer INSIDE an M113


A clearer photo, also showing the hitch point:

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## GTX (Jun 18, 2022)

Putin claims New World Order and blasts the West for 'insane' sanctions


In a combative 73-minute speech, the Russian President accuses the West of denying Russia its sovereign rights and claims Moscow is entering a new era of dominance.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Jun 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin claims New World Order and blasts the West for 'insane' sanctions
> 
> 
> In a combative 73-minute speech, the Russian President accuses the West of denying Russia its sovereign rights and claims Moscow is entering a new era of dominance.
> ...


I hope Macron read this.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin claims New World Order and blasts the West for 'insane' sanctions
> 
> 
> In a combative 73-minute speech, the Russian President accuses the West of denying Russia its sovereign rights and claims Moscow is entering a new era of dominance.
> ...


The Tsar has spoken. All hail!
....Pfthttttt!

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## Dimlee (Jun 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not arguing the facts, just thinking that with dire circumstances in the Donbas, trade interdiction might have a lesser seat at the table.


No weapons for such interdiction so far. But if there is one, cruise missiles carrying ships will have a higher priority in the targets list.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 18, 2022)

Saw a commentary about Russia stealing grain from Ukraine, and how they can boost their economy without having to pay for it.

I don't think they realize that it cost thousands of Russian lives to get that grain (and anything else they steal from Ukraine).

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## SaparotRob (Jun 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Saw a commentary about Russia stealing grain from Ukraine, and how they can boost their economy without having to pay for it.
> 
> I don't think they realize that it cost thousands of Russian lives to get that grain (and anything else they steal from Ukraine).


Russian lives don't figure in Putler's computations for the restoration of the Russian Empire.

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## Dimlee (Jun 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Interesting points as Australia was affected as well. In 1900 we federated to become a nation. One of the crown princes ? of Russia was at the reading of the
> proclamation and is in the (in Australia) well known picture of said event.
> 
> He came to Oz in a warship and it was a state visit. All good so far.
> ...


There are interesting connections between Australia and "old Russia". So many names from my native Crimea on the map: Inkerman, Balaklava, Alma, Sebastopol.
Some stories about "Russian fear": Elena Govor. Australia and the Crimean War
When I started my maritime career, Soviet tanker vessels were involved in animal fat exports from Australia. I can't remember the name of that small port on the east coast... There was a small community of white Russian emigre. We could not contact them, it was prohibited and our political officer would report anyone who dared. But there was always a small crowd on the jetty upon arrival and departure. We played Russian songs through the loudspeakers and they waived. Sometimes, souvenirs were exchanged through the ship's agent.

Edit:
Port Alma was the name! How could I forget. There is Balaclava island and probably more Crimean names in the area.

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## Glider (Jun 18, 2022)

I find it slightly bemusing when Putin talks of restoring the greatness of old mother Russia.

Lets look at why Imperial Russia collapsed.

The vast majority of the wealth of the country was held by a very, very small few
The people were more pretty well ignored
Technically they fell behind the rest of the world
The people were used as cannon fodder during any conflict
Leadership in those conflicts was based on how close you were to the leader, and not on your ability
The military suffered huge losses
Result - The revolution 
Now a Question for you all - 

*Does any of this sound at all familiar ?*

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin claims New World Order and blasts the West for 'insane' sanctions
> 
> 
> In a combative 73-minute speech, the Russian President accuses the West of denying Russia its sovereign rights and claims Moscow is entering a new era of dominance.
> ...

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## GrauGeist (Jun 18, 2022)

Funny how Putler only sticks to recent history to make his case.

Now if he were to state that the Golden Horde were historically Russian, he can go and claim Mongolia...

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Saw a commentary about Russia stealing grain from Ukraine, and how they can boost their economy without having to pay for it.
> 
> I don't think they realize that it cost thousands of Russian lives to get that grain (and anything else they steal from Ukraine).


*S*ervile
*E*xpendable
*R*epressed
*F*oot
*S*oldiers

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now if he were to state that the Golden Horde were historically Russian, he can go and claim Mongolia...


Gee, you think maybe he's been listening to his buddy She Jing Pee? "Wherever people of Chinese (Russian) origin live, or have lived, is Chinese (Russian) land and is rightfully part of China (Russia)"! (Substitute empire of choice)
Let's see, can anybody spell,
A R M A G E D D O N ?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 18, 2022)

_
KYIV, June 19 (Reuters) - The head of NATO said on Sunday the war in Ukraine could last years and Ukrainian forces faced intensified Russian assaults after the EU executive recommended that Kyiv should be granted the status of a candidate to join the bloc.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was cited by Germany's Bild am Sonntag newspaper as saying the supply of state-of-the-art weaponry to Ukrainian troops would increase the chance of liberating the eastern Donbas region from Russian control. _









Russia advances in battle for eastern Ukraine city as NATO warns of long war


Russia said on Sunday it seized a village near Ukraine's industrial city of Sievierodonetsk, a prime target in Moscow's campaign to control the country's east, as the head of NATO predicted the war could last for years.




www.reuters.com





Dear lord, I sure hope he's wrong.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 19, 2022)

_
"The offensive in the Sievierodonetsk direction is developing successfully," Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a video statement. He said the settlement of Metyolkine, on the eastern outskirts of the city, had been taken.


"The armed forces of the Russian Federation continue to strike military targets on the territory of Ukraine," he said.

Konashenkov said long-range Kalibr cruise missiles struck a command centre in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing Ukrainian generals and officers, including from the general staff.

Reuters was unable to independently verify the details or toll of Russia's strikes on Ukraine._









Russia says eastern attack is going well, strikes Ukraine with missiles


Russia said on Sunday that its offensive against Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine was proceeding successfully after it took control of a district in the outskirts of the city.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Jun 19, 2022)

Russia's war in Ukraine is risking global famine, warns EU specialist


Despite it's reputation as the "breadbasket of the world", the war in Ukraine has stymied grain exports, which experts fear will have global consequences.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 19, 2022)

M113 Armored Personnel Carriers donated by Australia are on the way to Ukraine | Defense News June 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


first Australian Army M113 tracked armored vehicles donated to Ukraine are on their way for delivery




www.armyrecognition.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> I find it slightly bemusing when Putin talks of restoring the greatness of old mother Russia.
> 
> Lets look at why Imperial Russia collapsed.
> 
> ...


There were many reasons for the end of the Russian Empire, including some of the listed.
The fall of the Empire which happened in February 1917 could have become "the end of the beginning" in the long chain of reforms that could transform the country into something more modern. And for the country itself, it was not a collapse but rather a difficult transition. Unfortunately, Republic was short-lived and weak and after the Bolshevist coup, the actual collapse happened.
As for the current situation in Russian Federation, I wouldn't hope for any "revolution". The state is stable, military losses are hardly noticed by the population which is brainwashed and apathetic and enjoys material comfort unimaginable for the earlier generations, and export revenues are satisfactory. GDP contraction is expected to be not worse than in 2008-2009. Opposition is silenced and pushed out of the country.

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## Dimlee (Jun 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Funny how Putler only sticks to recent history to make his case.
> 
> Now if he were to state that the Golden Horde were historically Russian, he can go and claim Mongolia...


Vikings were among the founders of Kievan Rus', so... Ah, and there is Alaska.

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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Vikings were among the founders of Kievan Rus', so... Ah, and there is Alaska.


...and British Columbia and Northern California (everywhere north of Mexican territory).


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## GrauGeist (Jun 19, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> ...and British Columbia and Northern California (everywhere north of Mexican territory).


Fort Ross was founded in Imperial Spanish territory and the Spaniards kept their intended expansion at bay.

Then with the Mexicans taking over and eventually the U.S., Russia never had a chance.

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## ThomasP (Jun 20, 2022)

The first US supplied HIMARS/MLRS battery (4 launchers) will be ready for operational deployment ~end of June. A second US supplied HIMARS/MLRS battery is currently working up.

It should be noted that part of the training and working up period involves integrating the HIMAES/MLRS with associated support personnel and vehicles in order to create a more sustainable "maneuver" unit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 20, 2022)

An opinion piece I've read this morning:

_
Make no mistake: No one can win the war in Ukraine. First, defining "wining" and "losing" is complicated. Unless Russia were to use nuclear weapons, and that may not be sufficient, it lacks the forces to defeat the Ukrainian military and occupy all of Ukraine against what would be a massive, long-term insurrection. And Ukraine lacks the military power to retake Crimea and all the Donbas under Russian control.

Thus, winning and losing in Ukraine is not relevant. The Korean War, which still has not ended with a peace treaty, underscores this point. The boundary of the 38th parallel was restored after both sides took large losses and both Koreas were devastated by the conflict. Yet, none of the belligerents could declare victory or admit defeat. 

Second, Ukraine has been largely destroyed as a functioning state by the unprovoked and illegal Russian invasion. Many Ukrainian cities and much of its infrastructure have been turned into rubble. Rebuilding and reconstruction will take decades and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Even if Russia were able to overrun Ukraine, it could never afford the expense of repairing the destruction it imposed.

Third, Russia has been isolated. It has provoked NATO to add two new members and increase its defense spending and capability directed against Russia. The sanctions have harmed Russian citizens and its economy, not the elites. And the huge losses it has taken cannot be ignored by the families and friends of those soldiers killed or wounded in battle.

Fourth, Russia's refusal to return captured Ukrainian territory and Ukraine's demands to the contrary make any successful negotiations infeasible. That means, at best, a ceasefire, armistice, stalemate or suspension of fighting are the only plausible outcomes. And none of these eliminates further escalation by either party.

Current Ukrainian, U.S., NATO and Russian strategies appear to be two sides of the same coin. Ukraine is attempting to extend the fight until winter, build up forces and military capabilities, and resume the offensive next year, expecting losses will ultimately force Russia to negotiate an end to the fighting. Russia is maintaining its offensive in the expectation that Ukraine and the West ultimately will capitulate, leaving Russia in control of the land it now occupies and waiting for a much later date to finish its conquest of the rest of the country with an attack to gain control of Kyiv.

[...]
Washington could reverse those restrictions. It could also send anti-ship missiles with longer ranges than the Harpoon systems en route to be used against Russia's Black Sea surface warships. It could also supply weapons to take down the Kerch Bridge linking both sides of the Sea of Azov and greatly restricting Russia's supply lines with the aim of forcing Russia to negotiate.

Russia could follow a parallel strategy. Taking Severdonetsk quickly and then proposing negotiations is one. But negotiations are complicated, if not made impossible, by other factors. Russia will want all sanctions lifted. Ukraine will need security guarantees to prevent another Russian invasion. And Ukraine needs many billions to reconstruct the country. At this point, it does not appear that any of these issues can be resolved.

[...]

The imperfect option is to broaden and increase the flow of weapons to Ukraine while ending any self-deterring restraints to impose as many casualties on Russia's military and destroy as much of its capability as possible. Killing one's way to end a war is not a strategy. But it is, sadly, the least worst course that can be achieved._



https://thehill.com/opinion/3529085-the-least-worst-option-in-ukraine/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 20, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 20, 2022)

Quite good, and IMHO neutral, economic analysis of the war.


_When Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the West responded with a harsh regime of sanctions and measures that were intended to deeply wound the Russian economy. Now, more than 100 days on, it's hard to find consensus over exactly how well those measures are working. Some will tell you that Russia is on its knees, incapable of carrying on the war much longer, while others will insist that it's Ukraine and Europe that are about to break. In this video I look at the sanctions measures that have been imposed, what impact they've had, and try to assess how well the Russian and Ukrainian economies are holding up, and what may be next in store as the fighting (and economic pressure) continues. _

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 20, 2022)

Ukraine hits oil Crimean drilling platforms, pro-Russian regional head says


Ukrainian forces attacked drilling platforms in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, the pro-Russian head of the annexed peninsula said on Monday, giving no details of what weapons were used.




www.reuters.com













Russia condemns Lithuania transit ban to Kaliningrad, vows response


The Kremlin on Monday called Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of some goods to Russia's Kaliningrad region "unprecedented" and vowed to respond.




www.reuters.com





Also there are rumors of explosions on snake island (may the first MLRS have arrived?)








Explosions rocked on Zmeiny Island : Daily Banner


There is no official confirmation of this information yet. The media learned about the explosions at Zmeiny / photo from UNIAN, Oleg Kutsky On the Snake Islandwhich was temporarily captured by Russian invaders, dozens of explosions thundered and a fire started. The Odessa site writes about this...




dailybanner.co.uk

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## ThomasP (Jun 20, 2022)

re Snake Island missile attack

Probably an AGM/RGM-84 Harpoon Block II or a SLAM-ER variant. It can be fired from the same ground launcher as used with the coast defense anti-ship variants. The missile has more than enough range to reach from the nearby mainland (it is only ~23 miles to the nearest point on the mainland, and there are plenty more launch points within 40 miles).

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 20, 2022)

Yeah, but the rumor talks about dozens of explosions. I wouldn't waste dozens of harpoons on a tiny island.
Anyway, it has not been confirmed yet.

EDIT: Also some people suggest that the (suppossed) attack to snake island could actually be the attack to oil platforms, which has already been confirmed. Is not the first time that a single event is reported as multiple events.

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## GTX (Jun 20, 2022)

Russian forces take territory as Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns of escalating attacks


The Ukranian President says Russian forces will increase their "hostile activities" but the country is ready, while EU leaders are expected to give their blessing to Ukraine becoming an official candidate to join.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Jun 20, 2022)

Well done, Taipei.








Taiwan FM calls mayor of Bucha in Ukraine, pledges US$500,000 - Focus Taiwan


Taipei, June 20 (CNA) Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) pledged a US$500,000 donation to the Ukrainian town of Bucha on Monday to help it rebuild after it was devastated following Russia's invasion.




focustaiwan.tw

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## Dimlee (Jun 20, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re Snake Island missile attack
> 
> Probably an AGM/RGM-84 Harpoon Block II or a SLAM-ER variant. It can be fired from the same ground launcher as used with the coast defense anti-ship variants. The missile has more than enough range to reach from the nearby mainland (it is only ~23 miles to the nearest point on the mainland, and there are plenty more launch points within 40 miles).


Conflicting reports about the alleged attack on the island and nothing official yet. But at least one Russian oil platform was attacked with damages and casualties, which was confirmed by the occupation administration of Crimea.

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## Dimlee (Jun 20, 2022)

Burning platform in the Black Sea. Harpoons, probably?


H I Sutton - Covert Shores

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 21, 2022)

Tensions between Russia and Kazakhstan are rising.

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## MiTasol (Jun 21, 2022)

Russian journalist's Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned for record $148.6 million to help Ukrainian children


The gold Nobel Peace Prize medal auctioned off by Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov to raise money for Ukrainian child refugees sells for $US103.5 million, shattering the old record for such a sale.




www.abc.net.au

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## ThomasP (Jun 21, 2022)

Interesting bits of news, with some humor tossed in for a bonus.

"Russia warns Lithuania over Kaliningrad goods restrictions"

Lithuania's state-owned railway informed clients that from Friday June 17 rail transported sanctioned goods would not be permitted to cross Lithuania to the Kaliningrad Oblast. Sandwiched between European Union and NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad receives supplies from Russia via rail and gas pipelines through Lithuania. It is estimated that the Lithuanian ban would affect about 50% of all imports to the Oblast.

"The situation is more than serious," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "This decision is really unprecedented. It's a violation of everything."

Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take measures to defend its national interests. Russia's foreign ministry demanded Vilnius reverse what it cast as an "openly hostile" move immediately. "If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests."

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters in Luxembourg "It's not Lithuania doing anything [unilaterally]: it's European sanctions that started working from 17 of June,"

In Lithuania it is not popularly being called a blockade of Kaliningrad, but instead a "special access denial operation".

Recently, Lithuanian citizens crowd-funded a $5.4 million Byraktar drone for Ukraine in just 3 days.

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## ThomasP (Jun 21, 2022)

Another bit of news, rather bizarre in my opinion.

"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 21, 2022)

We need a WTF emoji.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 21, 2022)

According to this, it seems Russians acknowledge some kind of attack on snake island on June 20






Russia Says Repelled Attack On Ukraine's Snake Island


Russia said Tuesday it had repelled a "mad" attempt by Kyiv's forces to retake the Black Sea's Snake Island captured by Moscow at the start of military action in Ukraine.




www.barrons.com

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## Denniss (Jun 21, 2022)

What a russian BS. Again - why should Ukraine recapture this small island. With their limited forces on hand the island has currently no value for them. Plus there are too many nice targets in the air and in the water trying to get there almost every day.
Let the enemy keep it and wait for his next target ship/helo to come by

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 21, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Another bit of news, rather bizarre in my opinion.
> 
> "The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 21, 2022)

Denniss said:


> What a russian BS. Again - why should Ukraine recapture this small island. With their limited forces on hand the island has currently no value for them. Plus there are too many nice targets in the air and in the water trying to get there almost every day.
> Let the enemy keep it and wait for his next target ship/helo to come by


Snake Island is quite a strategic bit of real estate.

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## Dimlee (Jun 21, 2022)

Panzerhaubitze 2000 in Ukraine.
Minister of defence Oleksei Reznikov:
"This is already the 6th type of 155-mm artillery that has strengthened our defenses. Our soldiers are already striking the enemy with M777, FH70, M109, AHS Krab and Ceasar. From now on, Ph2000 has joined the club.
As always, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi will use them on the battlefield with 100% efficiency."

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## SaparotRob (Jun 21, 2022)

Nice.


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## fubar57 (Jun 21, 2022)

Read into it what you will.... https://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/putins-road-to-war-1.6448309

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## GrauGeist (Jun 21, 2022)

Still laughing at Russia threatening Lithuania.
Like, what are they going to do, invade?

They can't handle the clownshow they started already, I seriously doubt they could handle another at the moment.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 21, 2022)

Do I hear a rumor of rumblngs in Georgia?

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## Glider (Jun 21, 2022)

There seems to be some good reliable reports that the Ukraine forces have sunk a tug boat which was supplying the Snake Island forces, using a Harpoon.

What I find interesting is that the Russian Navy were using a basically unarmed vessel in such a dangerous area. The Captain and crew must have known that if discovered their chances of surviving were low to negligible.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Do I hear a rumor of rumblngs in Georgia?



I read something to that effect this morning, on Reuters I think.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 21, 2022)

Glider said:


> There seems to be some good reliable reports that the Ukraine forces have sunk a tug boat which was supplying the Snake Island forces, using a Harpoon.
> 
> What I find interesting is that the Russian Navy were using a basically unarmed vessel in such a dangerous area. The Captain and crew must have known that if discovered their chances of surviving were low to negligible.



Russian logistics at work again!


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## GrauGeist (Jun 21, 2022)

Glider said:


> There seems to be some good reliable reports that the Ukraine forces have sunk a tug boat which was supplying the Snake Island forces, using a Harpoon.
> 
> What I find interesting is that the Russian Navy were using a basically unarmed vessel in such a dangerous area. The Captain and crew must have known that if discovered their chances of surviving were low to negligible.


The Vasily Bekh was more than a tugboat. During normal operations, it's a rescue and salvage ship.

It's size and design made it ideal for ferrying supplies, troops and munitions - perhaps not the smartest thing to be doing in a war zone.

But then again, considering alot of what the Russians have done during this "special operation", I'm not surprised...

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## Denniss (Jun 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Snake Island is quite a strategic bit of real estate.


Yep. But currently more important to have enemy vehicles leave their safe zone around Crimea and trying to reach Snake island for a nice turkey shoot.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 21, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Yep. But currently more important to have enemy vehicles leave their safe zone around Crimea and trying to reach Snake island for a nice turkey shoot.



A target-magnet can be a good thing. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives in the Donbas, so trying to take the island would seem further down the to-do list anyway. And as long as the Russians are offering up targets that can be hit by assets not useful in the Donbas, it seems like a good calculus to me.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 21, 2022)

_KYIV, June 21 (Reuters) - Russian forces have captured several settlements near the embattled cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region, the regional governor and Ukraine's general staff said on Tuesday.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai told Ukraine's national broadcaster that Russian forces had captured the settlement of Toshkivka to the south of Sievierodonetsk, confirming previous reports.

"Unfortunately, the enemy threw at it huge amounts of armaments and soldiers and captured Toshkivka," Gaidai said.

Russian-backed separatist forces in Ukraine claimed on Monday to have taken Toshkivka. 

[...]

Ukraine's general staff said in its daily report that Russian forces had also captured the settlements of Pidlisne and Myrna Dolyna, located to the south of Lysychansk._









Russian forces capture several more settlements in Ukraine's Luhansk region


Russian forces have captured several settlements near the embattled cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region, the regional governor and Ukraine's general staff said on Tuesday.




www.reuters.com





Obviously aiming at encirclement. Can the Ukrainians hold?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2022)

It seems the Ukrainians are starting to feel the effects of lessening morale and fatigue. The Russians appear to be making gains. Expensive costly gains, but gains none the less. I hope Ukrainians can continue to hold and fight back.

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## GTX (Jun 21, 2022)

Russia warns of 'serious negative impact' for Lithuania over Kaliningrad


One of President Vladimir Putin's top allies has warned Lithuania that Russia would respond to a halt in the transit of EU-sanctioned goods to the exclave of Kaliningrad.




www.abc.net.au

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## at6 (Jun 21, 2022)

If Russia takes military action against Lithuania, it's war with NATO. The Russians may well be just that stupid.


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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 21, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 21, 2022)

Maps showing territory changes in last month

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## special ed (Jun 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia warns of 'serious negative impact' for Lithuania over Kaliningrad
> 
> 
> One of President Vladimir Putin's top allies has warned Lithuania that Russia would respond to a halt in the transit of EU-sanctioned goods to the exclave of Kaliningrad.
> ...


I noticed a side story incidental to the Ukrainian news, which said any one in Victoria who displays a swastika will be arrested. Are models on a shelf safe?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Maps showing territory changes in last month




Almost like the western front in 1915.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 21, 2022)

I'm sure that a swastika displayed in a historical context is perfectly fine.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure that a swastika displayed in a historical context is perfectly fine.



From the article:

_The state government said it consulted "religious, legal and community groups … to understand the religious use of the swastika and ensure exceptions are in place for appropriate displays of the Nazi symbol, such as for educational or artistic purposes"._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 22, 2022)

special ed said:


> I noticed a side story incidental to the Ukrainian news, which said any one in Victoria who displays a swastika will be arrested. Are models on a shelf safe?



Presuming you mean in Australia, I had this discussion at another forum with a bud who lives there, and he reports that while public display is banned, models are indeed safe.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 22, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Maps showing territory changes in last month




This is shaping up more and more like WWI.

ETA: 

 DerAdlerIstGelandet
got there first. Another similarity: the capital of the victim nation was nearly taken, until the attackers were repelled by a counter-offensive.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Almost like the western front in 1915.


So now the question must be asked:
Who will take the place of the AEF in this scenario?

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 22, 2022)

Pockets of resistance: Why the southern Ukraine front matters


Guerilla warfare is now being waged in southern Ukraine as the defenders seek to disrupt, distract and destroy Russia’s invasion from behind-the-lines.




www.smh.com.au

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So now the question must be asked:
> Who will take the place of the AEF in this scenario?



I wish…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2022)

A Russian military helicopter crossed into NATO territory for 2 minutes, further ramping up tensions with the bloc


Estonia's defense ministry said a Russian Mi-8 helicopter entered its airspace for two minutes on Saturday.




www.yahoo.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> There seems to be some good reliable reports that the Ukraine forces have sunk a tug boat which was supplying the Snake Island forces, using a Harpoon.
> 
> What I find interesting is that the Russian Navy were using a basically unarmed vessel in such a dangerous area. The Captain and crew must have known that if discovered their chances of surviving were low to negligible.


And the crew was civilian. The ship belonged to UPASR (search and rescue detachment of the Navy, mostly manned by civilians).
They could earn good money in shipping companies all over the world and stay safe. Well, they made their choices...

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## Dimlee (Jun 22, 2022)

"The most important line of defence is between one's ears".
Well said, General.








Finland is ready to fight Russia if attacked - defence chief


Finland has prepared for decades for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance should one occur, its armed forces chief said.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Jun 22, 2022)

Soldiers describe Ukraine's 'impossible' secret rescue missions in the besieged city of Mariupol


A series of clandestine, high-speed helicopter missions to reach the Azovstal defenders have been celebrated for rescuing survivors, but some flights did not make it back.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Jun 22, 2022)

Ok, this is a very strange and dangerous report:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Ok, this is a very strange and dangerous report:




Maybe a coup is taking place? There were Ukrainian reports that one was underway.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Ok, this is a very strange and dangerous report:




The only article Google gave up:


_In the kitchen of his apartment in Krasnogorsk, which is located in the Moscow region, he was discovered dead from gunshot wounds.

Zimin was discovered by his brother, who, according to reports, had been hiding in the bathroom during the shooting that took place on Monday.

He was injured in the head and was laying in a pool of blood; a pistol marked Izh 79-9TM was lying nearby.

According to Moskovsky Komsomolets, the incident took place while Zimin was the subject of a criminal investigation for the alleged accepting of bribes after being promoted to a prominent job within the customs department._









Putin colonel Vadim Zimin who carried Russian president’s nuclear codes found dead at home - Fox3 Now


A SECRETIVE colonel Vadim Zimin who carried the Russian president’s nuclear codes has been found shot at his home, it was reported.




www.fox3now.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The only article Google gave up:
> 
> 
> _In the kitchen of his apartment in Krasnogorsk, which is located in the Moscow region, he was discovered dead from gunshot wounds.
> ...



So was it self-inflicted or did someone shoot him?

If this is even true.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So was it self-inflicted or did someone shoot him?
> 
> If this is even true.


I think you answered your own question.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think you answered your own question.



Did I? lol


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## Glider (Jun 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> And the crew was civilian. The ship belonged to UPASR (search and rescue detachment of the Navy, mostly manned by civilians).
> They could earn good money in shipping companies all over the world and stay safe. Well, they made their choices...


Good luck to Russia if they try to persuade another civilian unarmed ship, to undertake the next mission. 

It's close to a suicide trip

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## Glider (Jun 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The only article Google gave up:
> 
> 
> _In the kitchen of his apartment in Krasnogorsk, which is located in the Moscow region, he was discovered dead from gunshot wounds.
> ...


Does anyone really believe that the man carrying the nuclear codes, was from customs and subject to an investigation for accepting bribes!!

It would be safer in the hands of the Scouts

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> Does anyone really believe that the man carrying the nuclear codes, was from customs and subject to an investigation for accepting bribes!!
> 
> It would be safer in the hands of the Scouts


From the incompetence seen so far, I'm not surprised!


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## Dimlee (Jun 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> Good luck to Russia if they try to persuade another civilian unarmed ship, to undertake the next mission.
> 
> It's close to a suicide trip


Unfortunately, enough brainwashed people want to earn quick money in the war zone.


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## Dimlee (Jun 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Panzerhaubitze 2000 in Ukraine.
> Minister of defence Oleksei Reznikov:
> "This is already the 6th type of 155-mm artillery that has strengthened our defenses. Our soldiers are already striking the enemy with M777, FH70, M109, AHS Krab and Ceasar. From now on, Ph2000 has joined the club.
> As always, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi will use them on the battlefield with 100% efficiency."



Confirmed by the Germans.

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## Dimlee (Jun 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Soldiers describe Ukraine's 'impossible' secret rescue missions in the besieged city of Mariupol
> 
> 
> A series of clandestine, high-speed helicopter missions to reach the Azovstal defenders have been celebrated for rescuing survivors, but some flights did not make it back.
> ...


Good video with English subtitles.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "The most important line of defence is between one's ears".
> Well said, General.
> 
> 
> ...


The Finns, like the Israeli and the Swiss are not be be trifled with. Russia would get its ass kicked in Finland, especially if Ukraine is still fighting on.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 22, 2022)

I can’t help but think China is missing an opportunity to truly rattle the world. If I was China’s leader Eleven I would announce support for Ukraine and send hundreds of tanks and kit to Ukraine via Poland. I assume early Chinese tanks are similar to ex-Soviet types. Russia will be furious, but who cares, the West will wonder wtf? and China can take the opportunity to rebuild Ukraine and help to depose Putin and replace him with a better puppet in the Kremlin, one that won‘t disturb world order, since that’s China’s job.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 23, 2022)

Don't think for a minute that China isn't playing Putin's strings. He is their new barking dog, since North Korea's Kim Jong-un isn't scaring anybody these days.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> Does anyone really believe that the man carrying the nuclear codes, was from customs and subject to an investigation for accepting bribes!!
> 
> It would be safer in the hands of the Scouts





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> So was it self-inflicted or did someone shoot him?
> 
> If this is even true.



It looks like a sloppy hit to me, if indeed it is true.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Don't think for a minute that China isn't playing Putin's strings. He is their new barking dog, since North Korea's Kim Jong-un isn't scaring anybody these days.


Well, when you threaten to nuke Texas but your missile breaks up in the south China Sea, people start to have questions...

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> Does anyone really believe that the man carrying the nuclear codes, was from customs and subject to an investigation for accepting bribes!!
> 
> It would be safer in the hands of the Scouts



No he didn't carry the codes when he was shot. He did in the past.

_Zimin is a *former colonel from the Federal Security Service.* *During his time in the FSS, he was in charge of the briefcase that carries the Russian nuclear controls* and that is always carried by the head of the Kremlin._


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## ThomasP (Jun 23, 2022)

Vadim Zimin used to be a Colonel in the FSB (Federal Security Service). He left the FSB sometime in the last month or so, is currently employed in the FTC (Federal Customs Service), and is under investigation for taking bribes while at his job at the FTC. He was under house arrest at the time of the shooting.


whoops! RogerdeLiuria beat me to it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 23, 2022)

Did armed forces of Ukraine entered Kherson? Probably not (yet), but is something to watch.

_In the evening of June 22, information began spreading on social networks that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had entered Kherson.
Deputy Vitaliy Kupriy on his Facebook page._


> From two independent sources it became known to me that our fighters occupied 4 streets of Kherson. The offensive continues, he wrote on Facebook.


_Later, another ex-MP, Ihor Mosiychuk, hinted that the Armed Forces had some success in the Kherson area._


> – Kherson. I recommend watching this Ukrainian city closely and waiting for good news, – he wrote.


_In the evening, Oleksiy Arestovych, Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, commented on this as follows_


> – We do not confirm or deny. Let's see what happens next, – he said


_Later, the Telegram channel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine denied it._


> – The information that the Armed Forces entered Kherson is not true. Because most of the media have already started throwing this information, – it is said in the message.


_Social media users suggest that information about the entry of Ukrainian defenders into Kherson was provided to discredit the Ukrainian media and catch fakes. Others believe it may be part of a guerrilla struggle in the occupied city.

So far, no official information has been received from the Ukrainian command that the Armed Forces have entered the city. As a rule, events at the front are usually reported publicly in a day or more, as this may affect the security situation in the region._



https://fakty.com.ua/en/ukraine/20220622-u-soczmerezhah-shyryat-informacziyu-shho-zsu-zajshly-v-herson-shho-vidbuvayetsya/

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 23, 2022)

F-16's for ukraine? Who knows? 
But at least somebody is fighting for that.









Kinzinger & Houlahan Introduce Ukraine Fighter Pilots Act


Today, U.S. Air Force Veterans Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA) introduced legislation to train Ukrainian fighter pilots and crews on US military air assets.




kinzinger.house.gov

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## SaparotRob (Jun 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Don't think for a minute that China isn't playing Putin's strings. He is their new barking dog, since North Korea's Kim Jong-un isn't scaring anybody these days.


I get the feeling Kim is throwing tantrums because "no one is paying attention to me!"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> F-16's for ukraine? Who knows?
> But at least somebody is fighting for that.
> 
> 
> ...



Repeat after me: _Wart-hog, Wart-hog, Wart-hog._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, when you threaten to nuke Texas but your missile breaks up in the south China Sea, people start to have questions...

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## SaparotRob (Jun 23, 2022)

North Korea succeeds in building world's largest ukulele.

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## Dimlee (Jun 23, 2022)

HIMARS in Ukraine and "Summer will be hot" .

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## Crimea_River (Jun 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I can’t help but think China is missing an opportunity to truly rattle the world. If I was China’s leader Eleven I would announce support for Ukraine and send hundreds of tanks and kit to Ukraine via Poland. I assume early Chinese tanks are similar to ex-Soviet types. Russia will be furious, but who cares, the West will wonder wtf? and China can take the opportunity to rebuild Ukraine and help to depose Putin and replace him with a better puppet in the Kremlin, one that won‘t disturb world order, since that’s China’s job.



In my view, they would have nothing to gain from doing that and would create a new enemy. Despite the west's aversion to China's policies, we keep buying their cheap crap and they thrive on that. Would we buy more cheap crap if they helped Ukraine? Would it change our perception of China's ongoing human rights abuses and its belligerent foreign policy? No. "Thanks for your help China but we still think you have eyes on the South China Sea and Taiwan. Oh, and not to mention your attempts at global dominance of strategic materials and markets. Oh, and, do you have any more of those cute little plastic bobble heads? We need two billion by next Thursday."

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just last week, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership under a "fast track" appeal.


Good luck to them. North Macedonia has had EU candidate status for 17 years. Albania has been an official EU candidate for eight years now. The Macedonians can wait, but I would not have Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia jump the queue over Albania; so best to fast track and consider EU status to all four.

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## Dimlee (Jun 23, 2022)

The contract for the first IRIS-T SL SAM system has been concluded with the manufacturer Diehl Defence, according to Ukraine's Ambassador in Germany.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 23, 2022)

Foreign companies seeking to exit Russia over the war in Ukraine face the prospect of a new law being passed in the coming weeks allowing Moscow to seize assets and impose criminal penalties. That has encouraged some businesses to accelerate their departure.








Cisco, Nike quit Russia, as pace of Western firms leaving speeds up


U.S. companies Cisco Systems and Nike plan to fully exit Russia, the two firms told Reuters on Thursday, as the pace of Western firms departing accelerated.




www.reuters.com

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## Glider (Jun 23, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Vadim Zimin used to be a Colonel in the FSB (Federal Security Service). He left the FSB sometime in the last month or so, is currently employed in the FTC (Federal Customs Service), and is under investigation for taking bribes while at his job at the FTC. He was under house arrest at the time of the shooting.
> 
> 
> whoops! RogerdeLiuria beat me to it.


Can I say thanks to you both


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Foreign companies seeking to exit Russia over the war in Ukraine face the prospect of a new law being passed in the coming weeks allowing Moscow to seize assets and impose criminal penalties. That has encouraged some businesses to accelerate their departure.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The phrase "cutting off your nose to spite your face" seems relevant here.

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## AAIR (Jun 23, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> F-16's for ukraine? Who knows?
> But at least somebody is fighting for that.
> 
> 
> ...


 Just sent a message to my Congressman to express support for the act. Suggest others consider contacting their Congressman too.

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## GTX (Jun 23, 2022)

Russian forces double down on their attacks in Kharkiv, as Ukrainian reinforcements arrive in Sievierodonetsk


Russian forces continue rocket attacks on Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, and its surrounding countryside, killing at least 20 people in what Kyiv called a bid to force it to pull resources from the main battlefield to protect civilians from attack.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 23, 2022)

Here's what would happen if Ukraine joined the European Union


Ukraine is set to become an official candidate for European Union membership. Here's what that means.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 23, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelensky blasts Israel over refusal to sanction Russia

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian forces double down on their attacks in Kharkiv, as Ukrainian reinforcements arrive in Sievierodonetsk
> 
> 
> Russian forces continue rocket attacks on Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, and its surrounding countryside, killing at least 20 people in what Kyiv called a bid to force it to pull resources from the main battlefield to protect civilians from attack.
> ...



This is why we need to build up the Ukrainian Air Force as well.

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## Dimlee (Jun 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian forces double down on their attacks in Kharkiv, as Ukrainian reinforcements arrive in Sievierodonetsk
> 
> 
> Russian forces continue rocket attacks on Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, and its surrounding countryside, killing at least 20 people in what Kyiv called a bid to force it to pull resources from the main battlefield to protect civilians from attack.
> ...


Just some apartment in Kharkiv.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 23, 2022)

Old photo.


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## GrauGeist (Jun 23, 2022)

Not sure I'd be too comfortable with a UXO stuck in my floor...

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Volodymyr Zelensky blasts Israel over refusal to sanction Russia


Good on him. A note of fact though, one which my Ukrainian-Canadian wife would push. The man's name is Zelensk*yy*. There's two y's there.


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## Ovod (Jun 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good on him. A note of fact though, one which my Ukrainian-Canadian wife would push. The man's name is Zelensk*yy*. There's two y's there.





> *Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy* (Ukrainian: Володимир Олександрович Зеленський; Russian: Владимир Александрович Зеленский, romanized: _Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelenskyy_,[a]​ born 25 January 1978), also transliterated as *Zelensky* or *Zelenskiy*,Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Wikipedia​* is a Ukrainian politician and former comedic actor[5]​ who has served as the 6th and current president of Ukraine since 2019.*




It usually depends on how you want to translate his name - there is more than 1 translation convention.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 23, 2022)

Ovod said:


> It usually depends on how you want to translate his name - there is more than 1 translation convention.


When in doubt how to spell a leader’s name, look to the official source. Here’s the Ukrainian embassy in Canada.



https://canada.mfa.gov.ua/en/news/volodymyr-zelenskyy-president-ukraine-will-speak-directly-students-across-canada



Mind you, this article says that even Zelenskyy himself has changed its spelling a few times. So, you may have a good point.









Analysis: Why how you spell the Ukrainian President's last name really matters


As you've been reading about the Russia-Ukraine crisis, you may have noticed a slight -- but significant -- discrepancy in how different media outlets spell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's name.




www.cnn.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not sure I'd be too comfortable with a UXO stuck in my floor...



Stay out of my bathroom then.

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## at6 (Jun 23, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just some apartment in Kharkiv.



Is it stamped Made in China/Hecho en Chin and did it come with a one tear warranty?

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## Zipper730 (Jun 24, 2022)

Is there any validity to this? Russia plan to use monkeypox as bioweapon explained in chilling detail by ex-Soviet doctor


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## ThomasP (Jun 24, 2022)

?

 Given the rest of the headlines on that site (ie the Daily Express) I would have to say there is no reason to think so.

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## special ed (Jun 24, 2022)

Allegedly, Monkeypox is spread by close intimate contact. Shoot em before they get close.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 24, 2022)

_
KYIV, June 24 (Reuters) - Ukrainian troops were set to withdraw from the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk after weeks of intense bombardments and street fighting, the regional governor said on Friday, as Russian advances raised fears they could be cut off and surrounded.

Russian troops fully occupied a town south of Lysychansk, which lies across the Siverskyi Donets River from Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian officials said. Moscow claimed it had encircled about 2,000 Ukrainian troops in the area.


The Russian advances appeared to bring the Kremlin closer to taking full control of Luhansk province, one of Moscow's stated war objectives, and set the stage for Lysychansk to become the main frontline city on that front._









Ukraine set to quit ruined Sievierodonetsk as Russians close in


Ukraine was set to pull its troops from the ruined city of Sievierodonetsk after weeks of street fighting and bombardment, the regional governor said, in what would be a significant gain for Russia as it grinds out its offensive in the east.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 24, 2022)

I understand the reasons behind the withdrawal. It hurts to see land lost that will only be fought for again.

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## Glider (Jun 24, 2022)

Interesting comment from the UK MOD

In the latest update, the MoD said: "Ukrainian forces have announced that the pilot of a Russian Su-25 FROGFOOT ground attack aircraft shot down on 17 June was captured shortly afterwards.

"The pilot has confessed to being a former Russian air force Major, who had taken employment as a Wagner military contractor and had flown several missions during the conflict.

"The use of retired personnel, now working as Wagner contractors, to conduct close air support missions indicates that the Russian air force likely is struggling to support the invasion of Ukraine with sufficient aircrew."

It added: "This is likely due to a combination of Russia's insufficient numbers of suitably trained personnel and its combat losses.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> "The pilot has confessed to being a former Russian air force Major, who had taken employment as a Wagner military contractor and had flown several missions during the conflict.
> 
> "The use of retired personnel, now working as Wagner contractors, to conduct close air support missions indicates that the Russian air force likely is struggling to support the invasion of Ukraine with sufficient aircrew."



And at the same time they have the nerve to complain of "mercenaries" who are legally enlisted in the UAF.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 24, 2022)

Should that bill to train Ukrainian pilots pass, is the F-16 (export version?) capable against the MiG-29?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I understand the reasons behind the withdrawal. It hurts to see land lost that will only be fought for again.



Sure, it's smart money. I hope the 2000 Ukrainians who did get surrounded can escape. Russian captivity sounds like an ugly fate, and those men deserve better.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Should that bill to train Ukrainian pilots pass, is the F-16 (export version?) capable against the MiG-29?



Yes, without a doubt. Look at upgrades. The -16 has continually been upgraded over its service life. I think the last upgrade for a -29 was around 2002? Also, consider the quality of the electronics suite.



 BiffF15
is much better placed to answer this, but I'd put my money on an F-16 nine times out of ten, assuming equally-skilled pilots.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 24, 2022)

That was my thought. It’s just that I never research this stuff. Just making sure.

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## Greg Boeser (Jun 24, 2022)

Well, I just saw some classified footage last weekend of a F-14 taking on a pair of S-57s.

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## GTX (Jun 24, 2022)

U.S. Sending 18 Patrol Boats to Ukraine as Part of Latest Aid Package - USNI News


The United States will send 18 patrol boats to Ukraine as part of continued aid to the country as the Russian invasion stretches into the 119th day. The Department of Defense, using supplies already available, will send 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats, it announced Thursday. The DoD will...




news.usni.org

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## GTX (Jun 24, 2022)

Unexploded bombs and missiles left scattered around Ukraine as Russian offensive continues


New pictures from Ukraine's front lines reveal the lingering danger left behind by unexploded bombs and other failed weapons — some of which could still detonate.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 24, 2022)

Glider said:


> "The pilot has confessed to being a former Russian air force Major, who had taken employment as a Wagner military contractor and had flown several missions during the conflict.


As a mercenary won’t he be summarily shot?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 24, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Well, I just saw some classified footage last weekend of a F-14 taking on a pair of S-57s.



Yeah, but I hear it was flown by the best of the best.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Should that bill to train Ukrainian pilots pass, is the F-16 (export version?) capable against the MiG-29?


IMHO, the best about F-16 its not if its better than mig-29 (which I think it is).
The good think about F-16 is that its wideespread around the world. Some countries have recently retired F-16s while others plan to do so in the near future. So it won't be difficult to find surplus aircraft to "donate" to Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 24, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Well, I just saw some classified footage last weekend of a F-14 taking on a pair of S-57s.


I think the MiG-28 would be more trouble, though...

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, without a doubt. Look at upgrades. the -16 has continually been upgraded over its service life. I think the last upgrade for a -29 was around 2002? Also, consider the quality of the electronics suite.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"If" export F-16s can be supported by the right ECMs and are capable of fighting BVR (AIM-120 AMRAAM), much of the "skill" level can be taken out of the equation. IMO leave the dogfighting to Maverick!

Biff - hope to hear your take.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 24, 2022)

The former military head of Canada’s military is getting involved.









‘They’re hanging on desperately to their country’: Canada’s ex-military chief, Rick Hillier, joins effort to help Ukraine in fight with Russia







www.thestar.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I think the MiG-28 would be more trouble, though...
> 
> View attachment 674996


Then there’s the Firefox.









Firefox (film) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## at6 (Jun 24, 2022)

special ed said:


> Allegedly, Monkeypox is spread by close intimate contact. Shoot em before they get close.


And do not touch them for any reason afterwards.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 24, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "If" export F-16s can be supported by the right ECMs and are capable of fighting BVR (AIM-120 AMRAAM), much of the "skill" level can be taken out of the equation. IMO leave the dogfighting to Maverick!



Right, exactly what I was talking about re: electronics. If you've got a gun, getting into a knife-fight is dumb.



FLYBOYJ said:


> Biff - hope to hear your take.



You and me both.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 25, 2022)

When we started fielding the initial MLRS in the early 80's we'd say they could take out a grid square. I'm sure they can manage much more now

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## Dimlee (Jun 25, 2022)

About the boats for the coastal and inner waterways defence. Small force but it will be helpful in guarding the Danube delta area. All three unblocked Ukrainian ports are there. 








Two Security Assistance Packages for Ukraine Contribute to Coastal, Waterway Defense


In the last month, the U.S. pledged more than $1.4 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. Some of that assistance is aimed at helping the Ukrainian military better defend their coast and



www.defense.gov

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## Dimlee (Jun 25, 2022)

I like his cautious optimism. By the way, he is one of the few persons who accessed the invasion timing correctly, back in November 2021.








'We'll win by end of year': Ukrainian chief defiant amid 'tactical' retreat | ITV News


In an interview with ITV News, the country's Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told us the retreat was both 'tactical' and 'organised.' | ITV National News




www.itv.com

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## Dimlee (Jun 25, 2022)

Ukraine war - latest: Putin dealing with an 'internal power struggle' - and now he's acted


Vladimir Putin is dealing with an "internal power struggle", the Institute for the Study of War says, and his appointment of General Valery Gerasimov to replace General Sergei Surovikin is an attempt to weaken a growing circle of military critics.




news.sky.com




"We'll destroy the entire group of enemy's space satellites during the first air operation," 
" Second...Third..."
...
...
"No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Göring. You may call me Meyer."

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## GrauGeist (Jun 25, 2022)

It appears that the Russian mouthpieces forget that Moscow can be bombed just as easy.

I would think that starting a war with NATO would be a ruinous adventure, especially at this point in time, when men and material are have been bled off in Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It appears that the Russian mouthpieces forget that Moscow can be bombed just as easy.


No one is going to be bombing Moscow. If Ukraine does it the escalation will worry the US and NATO. NATO won’t do it unless it’s WW3 and it’s with an ICBM, and then we’re all dead.


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## SaparotRob (Jun 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> About the boats for the coastal and inner waterways defence. Small force but it will be helpful in guarding the Danube delta area. All three unblocked Ukrainian ports are there.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm just wondering. How many ships has Russia lost in this land war?


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## GrauGeist (Jun 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No one is going to be bombing Moscow. If Ukraine does it the escalation will worry the US and NATO. NATO won’t do it unless it’s WW3 and it’s with an ICBM, and then we’re all dead.


Russia stated that in the event of escalation (referring to the blockade of Kaliningrad), they'll bomb London.
They didn't state whether it would be nukes or not, they just said they'll bomb it.

I'm going out on a limb here, but it seems to me that if Russia bombs London, the British aren't going to just sit there and wag their finger and issue a strongly worded message of disappointment...

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## Glider (Jun 25, 2022)

Plus of course there is the rather inconvenient fact that to bomb London you have to cross the whole of Europe, or go around the North giving us plenty of time to get into position to intercept.

Also you will have started WW3 and an chance of getting home is so close to nil

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## GTX (Jun 25, 2022)

Russian Jets Are Flying So Low To Dodge Ukrainian Air-Defenses That They’re Running Into The Ground


The same low flying that helps pilots to dodge enemy air-defenses also exposes them to a separate risk: collisions with the terrain.




www.forbes.com

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## GTX (Jun 25, 2022)

Tangentially related:









This little Swedish island could be key to Europe's protection from Vladimir Putin's fury


As NATO considers accepting two new members, Sweden is flexing its firepower on an idyllic holiday island that could serve as a strategic stronghold in the Baltic Sea. But for residents who love Gotland's peaceful waters, it's an uncomfortable shift.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 25, 2022)

Explosions shake Kyiv's centre as Sievierodonetsk falls to Russia after one of war's bloodiest fights


Four explosions are heard in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv as Russian forces seize full occupation of the eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, marking Ukraine's biggest battlefield setback for more than a month.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Jun 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm just wondering. How many ships has Russia lost in this land war?


Cruiser Moskva, SAR vessel Vasiliy Bekh, landing ship Saratov. 2-4 boats near Snake Island.
Two other landing ships were damaged alongside Saratov in the same operation.
At least one corvette was damaged by MLRS near Odessa in March and not seen until she was spotted in June in the Volga river on her way to the Baltic Sea.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm going out on a limb here, but it seems to me that if Russia bombs London, the British aren't going to just sit there and wag their finger and issue a strongly worded message of disappointment...



Neither will NATO. Attacking London would trigger Article 5 immediately and, as 
G
 Glider
pointed out, kick off WW3.

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## Dimlee (Jun 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Tangentially related:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


While some Swedes on Gotland expressed hopes for negotiations and peace for everyone, guests at a Russian TV show discussed the occupation of their island - in December 2021.








Fact Check-Russian TV show clip predates the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine


A clip of a Russian television show segment shared on social media websites predates the February 2022 war in Ukraine. The video clip, from the program “60 Minutes”, initially aired in early December 2021, not March 2022, as suggested by some social media users, and shows...




www.reuters.com




Just look at their happy faces...

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm just wondering. How many ships has Russia lost in this land war?


If only Ukraine had a few midget SSKs.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 25, 2022)

Didn’t we discuss putting new German submarines on wheels, calling them buses and “drive” them to Ukraine a few months back?
At least I had a plan.

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## Glider (Jun 25, 2022)

Pure speculation I know, but I see all this rhetoric from Russia as a positive sign, as it shows their insecurity. If a nation is positive and confident, they let their actions do the talking, which in turn build confidence in your own people and forces, while giving the opposition's concerns and fears room to develop and grow.
By exaggerating your threats to such an extreme level, people in your own area of control will start to recognise that what your saying, is rubbish. IN turn they will lose confidence in you, and its confidence which is critical in conflict

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## wlewisiii (Jun 25, 2022)



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## BiffF15 (Jun 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, without a doubt. Look at upgrades. The -16 has continually been upgraded over its service life. I think the last upgrade for a -29 was around 2002? Also, consider the quality of the electronics suite.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Here it goes.

First, the F-16A and the MiG-29A are a pretty close fight performance wise, with the Viper having better legs, better man machine interface (by a large margin) and better weapons.

The later block F-16s with big engines (GE F-110 or PW F100-229) have a large performance advantage over most of the late model MiG-29s. 

Second the Russian Air Force has had a stressful relationship with the MiG-29, maintenance problems, suffering extended groundings, and of course lots of crashes. On top of that their upgrade programs have been sporadic, and not all encompassing (quite a few aircraft received little or no upgrades).

Third, and most importantly the average Russian fighter pilot gets substantially less flying training than his Western counterparts. Emphasis on substantial. Not only does he / she get less flying, the quality is also in my opinion, MUCH less.

Of note the Ukrainian fighter pilots have been training for years with the Western fighter pilots and are fully versed in our methodology. They are flying outdated Russian hardware and doing some great work in my opinion.

Also of note is the Russians are dropping iron bombs (non-smart or unguided weapons) from more “modern” equipment. Indicates lack of smart weapons stockpiled or lack of training on them. Or both. Resulting in modern, expensive aircraft that have to get close to hit their targets, exposing them to simple defenses that appear to be wreaking havoc among them.

To directly answer your question I would put money on the Western trained Viper pilot over either the Russian MiG or SU driver. I think we are seeing that the 800lb Gorilla weights 350lbs and has a bum leg.

They do however have a nuclear ace up their sleeve.

Cheers,
Biff

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## GrauGeist (Jun 25, 2022)

Great overview, Biff

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 25, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Here it goes.
> 
> First, the F-16A and the MiG-29A are a pretty close fight performance wise, with the Viper having better legs, better man machine interface (by a large margin) and better weapons.
> 
> ...


Thanks Biff - always welcome your input!

Now throw F-16s armed with AIM-120 AMRAAMs into the mix. Are the Ruskie MiG-29 drivers "smoked caviar"?

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## BiffF15 (Jun 25, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Thanks Biff - always welcome your input!
> 
> Now throw F-16s armed with AIM-120 AMRAAMs into the mix. Are the Ruskie MiG-29 drivers "smoked caviar"?


The Russians have an AMRAAMski called the AA-12 Adder. However, I’m not sure which aircraft have been modified to carry it. The late F-15C models, tails 85-xxx and 86-xxx came from the factory with the hardware (not software) to shoot AMRAAMs. All other F-15A-Ds had to be modified to carry the AIM-120. The Russians have AA-10Cs and Ds, which are also capable weapons.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

BiffF15 said:


> Here it goes.
> 
> First, the F-16A and the MiG-29A are a pretty close fight performance wise, with the Viper having better legs, better man machine interface (by a large margin) and better weapons.
> 
> ...



Thank you for taking the time to lay that out, bud.

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## ThomasP (Jun 26, 2022)

I had to laugh a bit at the final comment by one of the posters on Facebook re the Reuters article that Dimlee referenced in his post#8,075:

"Something is seriously wrong with Russia."









Fact Check-Russian TV show clip predates the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine


A clip of a Russian television show segment shared on social media websites predates the February 2022 war in Ukraine. The video clip, from the program “60 Minutes”, initially aired in early December 2021, not March 2022, as suggested by some social media users, and shows...




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 26, 2022)

I was clicking through various news articles. I saw one from the NY Post, a news outlet I usually disregard. It's article stated that rockets were fired from Belorussia into Ukraine. Any confirmation on this?


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## GrauGeist (Jun 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was clicking through various news articles. I saw one from the NY Post, a news outlet I usually disregard. It's article stated that rockets were fired from Belorussia into Ukraine. Any confirmation on this?


Rockets and bombers.

It appears Belarus is still allowing Russia to use it's territory.









Ukraine reports 'massive' attack from Belarus


Ukraine said it came under "massive bombardment" Saturday (25 June) from neighbouring Belarus, a Russian ally not officially involved in the conflict, the day after announcing a retreat from the strategic city of Severodonetsk.




www.euractiv.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Mussoshenko is still at it, eh?

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## GrauGeist (Jun 26, 2022)

Yep, still dangling from Putler's teat...

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## SaparotRob (Jun 26, 2022)

Bet there are some tasty logistical centers and airbases in Belorussia. 


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Mussoshenko is still at it, eh?


Douche-A! Douche-A! Douche-A!

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## Glider (Jun 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Bet there are some tasty logistical centers and airbases in Belorussia.
> 
> Douche-A! Douche-A! Douche-A!


If Russia continues to use Belarus, then in theory there is nothing to stop Ukraine using say Poland.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> If Russia continues to use Belarus, then in theory there is nothing to stop Ukraine using say Poland.


But there is the thread-worn Russian whine of "NATO".

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## Glider (Jun 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But there is the thread-worn Russian whine of "NATO".


Let them. Or alternatively launch precision strikes against Belarus from Ukraine. As Sparatrob rightly points out, there must be some very important and probably lightly defended targets. Right now there are no consequences in letting your land be used by Russia. Let them know that there are consequences. 

Right now Putin and his cronies have a slow brutal approach, that tragically is working. The Status Quo has to be broken somehow.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Just make sure the IFF is active, otherwise the UAF’s trigger happy MANPADS lads will own goal them.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Mussoshenko is still at it, eh?


It’s only a matter of time before the Belorussians do a Ceaușescu. Especially once they see Ukraine begin postwar reconstruction, join the EU and accelerate their westernization. The grass will definitely look greener across the border, and the Belorussians won’t stand for it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s only a matter of time before the Belorussians do a Ceaușescu. Especially once they see Ukraine begin postwar reconstruction, join the EU and accelerate their westernization. The grass will definitely look greener across the border, and the Belorussians won’t stand for it.



I hope you're right.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just make sure the IFF is active, otherwise the UAF’s trigger happy MANPADS lads will own goal them.



As pointed out in the discussion upthread, MANPADs generally don't have IFF receivers.

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## GTX (Jun 26, 2022)

Russian fighter fired and lost a secret missile in Ukraine


Russian fighter jet lost a secret air-to-air missile during strikes into northern Ukraine, according to social media posts from Voyennyy Osvedomitel. Ukrainian emergency services have found and unearthed wreckages of Russian-made R-77-1 medium-range air-to-air missile, also known as Izdeliye...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Jun 26, 2022)

Russia's war in Ukraine: Fighting for Ukrainian sovereignty and global order - His Excellency Vasyl Myroshnychenko, Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just make sure the IFF is active, otherwise the UAF’s trigger happy MANPADS lads will own goal them.



Most Manpads are heat seeking so IFF will not do much for you.

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## GTX (Jun 26, 2022)

U.S.-supplied rocket systems enter the fight in Ukraine


U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems apparently have fired their first shots at Russian forces. The Chief of Ukraine's General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has confirmed that American-made rocket launchers are already working and hitting targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. "Artillerymen of...




defence-blog.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Most Manpads are heat seeking so IFF will not do much for you.


The trick is to identify friend or foe before you shoot, so that the missile‘s guidance system, heat or radar seaking doesn’t matter. To that end Starstreak, Mistral, Stinger and SAAB’s RBS 70 all come standard with aiming point IFF. But it only works if both the launcher and the potential friendly target are set up to communicate with each other. That’s what I’m suggesting for these new helicopters.

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## Dimlee (Jun 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was clicking through various news articles. I saw one from the NY Post, a news outlet I usually disregard. It's article stated that rockets were fired from Belorussia into Ukraine. Any confirmation on this?


Confirmed. Not for the first time, Belarus has been used as a launching pad since day 1 of the invasion.

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## Dimlee (Jun 26, 2022)

Moonfish, Juice and Sean.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Moonfish, Juice and Sean.



Sean Penn? Why does his opinion matter? Shall we ask Madonna next?

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## SaparotRob (Jun 26, 2022)

I cannot help but doubt celebrity sincerity.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 26, 2022)

The problem is, far too many people put stock on the opinions of celebrities and athletes.

I suppose in this case, it's good that most support Ukraine. 

At least, in Penn's case, he's been active in helping refugees - so at least he's not just making noise.

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## swampyankee (Jun 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> If Russia continues to use Belarus, then in theory there is nothing to stop Ukraine using say Poland.


Regardless of that, this means Belarus is an active belligerent. Ukraine is perfectly justified in striking them

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## buffnut453 (Jun 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I cannot help but doubt celebrity sincerity.



Nor that of many politicians...sadly!

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## GrauGeist (Jun 26, 2022)

To be honest, Ukraine has been remarkably restrained in limiting their strikes to within their borders.

As it stands, they are 100% justified in striking targets in Russia, Belarus and even the Russians in Transneistra.

Instead, they have taken the high road, stayed focused on immediate threats and avoided doing anything that can be used against them by the Russian spin-masters.

The people of Belarus see this and it's just a matter of time before the the people turn against Lukashanko.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The trick is to identify friend or foe before you shoot, so that the missile‘s guidance system, heat or radar seaking doesn’t matter. To that end Starstreak, Mistral, Stinger and SAAB’s RBS 70 all come standard with aiming point IFF. But it only works if both the launcher and the potential friendly target are set up to communicate with each other. That’s what I’m suggesting for these new helicopters.



See I’m thinking your standard Russian SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, or SA-18. IFF is meaningless for them. Its aim and shoot, and the seeker tracks s heat signature.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2022)

Oh, and don’t insult my intelligence please. I know “what the trick is.” I used to help load our codes every day before flying combat missions in an area heavily contested by Manpads…

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> See I’m thinking your standard Russian SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, or SA-18. IFF is meaningless for them. Its aim and shoot, and the seeker tracks s heat signature.


But the topic was equipping Ukraine‘s new helicopters with IFF so that the UAF won’t shoot them down. In that context why do you suggest that IFF won’t be useful since the MANPADS used by the UAF don’t have IFF, when at least those MANPADS supplied by NATO are thus equipped?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> As pointed out in the discussion upthread, MANPADs generally don't have IFF receivers.



You may disagree, 
A
 Admiral Beez
, but the discussion starting here. Maybe refresh your memory of that convo? I mean, you were posting right in the middle of it.



Admiral Beez said:


> But the topic was equipping Ukraine‘s new helicopters with IFF so that the UAF won’t shoot them down. In that context why do you suggest that IFF won’t be useful since the MANPADS used by the UAF don’t have IFF, when at least those MANPADS supplied by NATO are thus equipped?



Not all are Ukrainian MANPADs are so-equipped.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But the topic was equipping Ukraine‘s new helicopters with IFF so that the UAF won’t shoot them down. In that context why do you suggest that IFF won’t be useful since the MANPADS used by the UAF don’t have IFF, when at least those MANPADS supplied by NATO are thus equipped?



Because I missed the context of that part of the conversation. Happy?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You may disagree,
> A
> Admiral Beez
> , but the discussion starting here. Maybe refresh your memory of that convo? I mean, you were posting right in the middle of it.


I’m referring to this chat, where I said that Ukraine’s new US supplied helicopters need IFF. I appreciate your clarifying your post, as I couldn’t follow. As for suggestions of insulting your intelligence - goodness, don’t look to internet discussion forums for affirmation of your intellect either way.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not all are Ukrainian MANPADs are so-equipped.


Interesting - from what I’ve read it’s standard kit. I wonder if that’s because NATO kept the latest versions for themselves?


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## wlewisiii (Jun 26, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Kyiv needs Iron Dome, Patriots or some equivalent anti missile system. I was hoping, overly optimistically it seems, that the capital would already have some degree of counter missile capability by now.









Ukraine Wants Israel's Iron Dome Defense System


Israel has been reluctant to give Ukraine military aid to avoid antagonizing Russia, which controls the skies over Syria where Israel carries out air strikes.




www.newsweek.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m referring to this chat, where I said that Ukraine’s new US supplied helicopters need IFF.



Yes, I understand that. Did you read the part of that conversation where compatibility was discussed?



Admiral Beez said:


> I appreciate your clarifying your post, as I couldn’t follow. As for suggestions of insulting your intelligence - goodness, don’t look to internet discussion forums for affirmation of your intellect either way.



I have no idea where this is coming from, as I didn't suggest or imply that my intelligence was insulted.

As for your advice, while your concern is appreciated, your advice is pretty unnecessary. Thanks anyway.


Admiral Beez said:


> Interesting - from what I’ve read it’s standard kit. I wonder if that’s because NATO kept the latest versions for themselves?



The issue is compatibility. NATO transponders likely cannot interrogate many of the Ukrainian sets. Whether these helicopters have been refitted -- they've been in US possession for a while -- is unknown to me, but they still may be incompatible with some of the systems being donated. That's worse than no transponder at all, because it's still extra weight the grunt has to carry.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I have no idea where this is coming from, as I didn't suggest or imply that my intelligence was insulted.


Ah that’s on me. Quoted wrong….


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ah that’s on me. Quoted wrong….



It happens, no sweat.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As for suggestions of insulting your intelligence - goodness, don’t look to internet discussion forums for affirmation of your intellect either way.



Trust me, I don’t…

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## ThomasP (Jun 26, 2022)

Russia is currently making noises about giving nuclear weapons to Belarus. This is probably an attempt to prevent Ukraine (or NATO) from attacking targets in Belarus, along with currying favor and reassuring fearless leader Lukashenko. If targets in Belarus began to explode it might cause unhappiness with Belarus fearless leader, and increase the problems they are having with partizans and the opposition movements.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 27, 2022)

Pretty sure the world has grown tired of Russia's threats.

Didn't they promise dire consequences if Finland and Sweden attempted to join NATO?

And they've threatened Poland, Lithuania, Britain, Bulgaria - hell, let's make a list of who Russia has not threatened, it would be shorter.

What it boils down to, is the schoolyard bully finally roughed up a kid who didn't fall for his sh!t and kicked his ass in front of the whole schoolyard.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Russia is currently making noises about giving nuclear weapons to Belarus. This is probably an attempt to prevent Ukraine (or NATO) from attacking targets in Belarus, along with currying favor and reassuring fearless leader Lukashenko. If targets in Belarus began to explode it might cause unhappiness with Belarus fearless leader, and increase the problems they are having with partizans and the opposition movements.



I don't remember Biden saying anything about not shooting HIMARS into Belarus.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure the world has grown tired of Russia's threats.
> 
> Didn't they promise dire consequences if Finland and Sweden attempted to join NATO?
> 
> ...


That retired Russian colonel said as much on the State TV talk show, saying that Russia looks ridiculous making empty threats of missiles against Finland and Sweden.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 27, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Jun 27, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Kyiv needs Iron Dome, Patriots or some equivalent anti missile system. I was hoping, overly optimistically it seems, that the capital would already have some degree of counter missile capability by now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Kyiv does have the capacity but it is not sufficient to counter massive attacks, especially, when some missiles are launched from just 150 km away and when various missile types are used. Many systems were lost, while deliveries were meagre so far.

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## Dimlee (Jun 27, 2022)

Kremlin's dreams come true: Russian tanks are in Warsaw.








Russian weapons wrecked in Ukraine war on display in Poland


WARSAW, Poland (AP) — A display of war-damaged Russian weapons in downtown Warsaw serves as a reminder of the horrors of the war in Ukraine but also that Russia's aggression can be defeated, officials said Monday.




apnews.com

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## stug3 (Jun 27, 2022)

Russian aircraft strikes Kyiv with long-distance missiles, causing substantial damage

Some of the terminology and phrasing in this article made me chuckle. I dont really know if they still have dedicated bombardiers in the crews of Tu-95s and Tu-160s so I guess it could be technically correct.

_"multiple X101 missiles (NATO: AS-23 Kodiak) were launched by Russian Tu-95 and Tu-160 *bombardiers*."

"Tu-95 and Tu-160 are both Soviet-era *bombardiers*, created during the Cold War to counter possible Western threats.* Both are copies of bombardier models used by the U.S. Army post-World War II - the Boeing B-29 Superfortress and the Rockwell B-1 Lancer, respectively.*"_

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## Dimlee (Jun 27, 2022)

"I went to war at 18... the next generation is going to grow up with war too."








‘Shaman’ special forces take the fight across the border into Russia


Rotor blades clattered in the night sky as the helicopters streaked low over the Russian border. On board, the men of the Shaman battalion, an elite Ukrainian s




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## buffnut453 (Jun 27, 2022)

Ukraine is reporting that a Russian missile has struck a shopping centre with 1,000 civilians inside who were committing that heinous crime of....shopping:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61941287?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62b9bdfbb893776ef33421a3%26Missile%20strikes%20busy%20shopping%20centre%262022-06-27T14%3A27%3A20.583Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1619d22b-0e21-4786-ba34-c14a4346a779&pinned_post_asset_id=62b9bdfbb893776ef33421a3&pinned_post_type=share





https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61941287?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=62b9c1aac5f5c122c9fc0b20%26Zelensky%20says%20people%20%27living%20normal%20lives%27%20as%20shopping%20centre%20struck%262022-06-27T14%3A42%3A49.630Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:89457bdf-b059-40ad-9254-788e5ace39b0&pinned_post_asset_id=62b9c1aac5f5c122c9fc0b20&pinned_post_type=share











Ukraine latest news: Crowded shopping centre hit by Russian strike - 13 dead - BBC News


Ukraine's president says more than 1,000 people were inside the complex in the central-eastern city of Kremenchuk.




www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

Didn't all the NSDAP party members work in shopping centers?

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 27, 2022)

Uh oh, they are now pulling out the fat.... err big gun.









Obese retired Russian general sent to Ukraine as Putin runs low on commanders


General Pavel weighs 20 stone and is now aged 67 but has been put in charge of troops in eastern Ukraine because Vladimir Putin is running low on senior commanders




www.mirror.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine is reporting that a Russian missile has struck a shopping centre with 1,000 civilians inside who were committing that heinous crime of....shopping:


I have the feeling that Russia isn’t aiming missiles at civilian targets, but that instead that Russian missiles have the accuracy of a 1940’s era V2. So the Russians are essentially chucking missiles in the general direction of Ukraine‘s cities and seeing what they hit. It’s akin to the carpet bombing of WW2.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have the feeling that Russia isn’t aiming missiles at civilian targets, but that instead that Russian missiles have the accuracy of a 1940’s era V2. So the Russians are essentially chucking missiles in the general direction of Ukraine‘s cities and seeing what they hit. It’s akin to the carpet bombing of WW2.


I think you're giving them too much benefit of the doubt. Their goal is to render Ukraine non viable as a nation state and depopulate it so they can rebuild it in their own image with their own emigrant population of compliant "Rodina-philes". For that goal, terror works. What percentage of Ukraine's pre-war population are now refugees burdening western economies and potentially creating grievances among the more zenophobic of their political groups? What percentage of the population have been killed or rendered unproductive by injury? It's working. The questions for Putin are: will the arsenal outlast the population, or vice versa? And does he have the means to overcome an Afghanistan-style perpetual insurgency? Ukraine is not in far-off Central Asia. An aggressive and resourceful insurgency won't respect international borders. Does he realize the dangers that entails, or does the Emperor in fact have no clothes? The world wonders.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 27, 2022)

But doesnt Russia have a history of just doing that? I thought this occurred in Syria as well

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## wlewisiii (Jun 27, 2022)



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## GTX (Jun 27, 2022)

US to announce purchase of medium- to long-range surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine


The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased an advanced, medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine, a source familiar with the announcement tells CNN.




edition.cnn.com





NASAMS now being sent

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## GTX (Jun 27, 2022)

G7 pledges Ukraine support for 'as long as it takes' against Russian invasion


The leaders of the world's largest democratic economies announce new sanctions and tariffs levelled against Russia, with more arms and defence systems going to Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jun 27, 2022)

Ukraine's 'tactical realignment' is not a sign it's losing the war against Russia


The plucky Ukrainians, fighting against a larger Russian force with a significant advantage in artillery and air power, have slowly given ground in the Luhansk Pocket. So what does that mean for the war overall, asks Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## ThomasP (Jun 27, 2022)

US V Corps began deploying to Europe in mid-March. It was originally scheduled for personnel to begin rotation in-out at the beginning of June, but it appears that they are remaining on stations in Europe for now.

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## special ed (Jun 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Uh oh, they are now pulling out the fat.... err big gun.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The General shouldn't be to hard to hit for even a rookie sniper.

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## Glider (Jun 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> The General shouldn't be to hard to hit for even a rookie sniper.


I'm sure the troops he now commands will be seriously impressed with the quality of their new leadership. No doubt it will do the morale of the Ukrainian troops a lot of good and the opposite to the Russian forces.

PS - If he is only 20 stone, I will be amazed

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> US V Corps began deploying to Europe in mid-March. It was originally scheduled for personnel to begin rotation in-out at the beginning of June, but it appears that they are remaining on stations in Europe for now.


I can’t remember the specifics, but didn’t POTUS45 withdraw US forces from Germany? What happened to those forces, were they redeployed in Europe or sent home?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I can’t remember the specifics, but didn’t POTUS45 withdraw US forces from Germany? What happened to those forces, were they redeployed in Europe or sent home?



No, he wanted to. Once his regime ended it was announced the forces would remain.

Having said that, we have been drawing down our forces from Germany for decades now.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 27, 2022)

The forces never left. POTUS46 put a freeze on any moves by ordering a top-to-bottom review of global force postures. 

AFAIK, US forces in Europe have actually increased during 2022.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Having said that, we have been drawing down our forces from Germany for decades now.


We’re a tiny player, but I am wondering if Canada will deploy the Strathconas and/or Dragoons and their Leo 2 tanks to Europe. I assume they’re busily conducting training and preparations for possible deployment.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We’re a tiny player, but I am wondering if Canada will deploy the Strathconas and/or Dragoons and their Leo 2 tanks to Europe. I assume they’re busily conducting training and preparations for possible deployment.


I was just counter-trolling an Orc. I told him "don't provoke the Canadians!" Just sayin'.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> The General shouldn't be to hard to hit for even a rookie sniper.


Or a Soviet era guided munition.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 27, 2022)

Well, you know how come the Canadians are so nice, don't you? 

They have a ritual every year and pour all their hate, anger and other negatives into their favorite scapegoats - the Canada Geese. 

If the Orcs start something, the Canadians will have to forego the ritual this year, like they last did in WWII, and the world really isn't ready to face that!

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## gumbyk (Jun 27, 2022)

Looks like the russians are doing their best to derail the 'special operation':

boomerang missile

While it likely didn't hit the troops who fired it, it shows the general quality of the gear they are using.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well, you know how come the Canadians are so nice, don't you?
> 
> They have a ritual every year and pour all their hate, anger and other negatives into their favorite scapegoats - the Canada Geese.
> 
> If the Orcs start something, the Canadians will have to forego the ritual this year, like they last did in WWII, and the world really isn't ready to face that!


Appreciate the heads up, 'Bro.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We’re a tiny player, but I am wondering if Canada will deploy the Strathconas and/or Dragoons and their Leo 2 tanks to Europe. I assume they’re busily conducting training and preparations for possible deployment.



I remember when Canadian forces had a permanent presence in Germany. The days of the cold war were an interesting time to live in the Fatherland.

A lil blast from the past…

Here is yours truly as a kid standing next to an East German soldier standing guard in East Berlin. I hope everyone has a good laugh.

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## Crimea_River (Jun 27, 2022)

Speaking of Canadian involvement:









Canadian special forces don't deny New York Times report that commandos are in Ukraine


The Times reported the special forces personnel are in Ukraine as part of a NATO network to provide weapons, training and gather intelligence on the Russians




nationalpost.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I remember when Canadian forces had a permanent presence in Germany. The days of the cold war were an interesting time to live in the Fatherland.
> 
> A lil blast from the past…
> 
> ...


I once owned an SKS!


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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

oops.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Speaking of Canadian involvement:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Beauty, eh?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> The General shouldn't be to hard to hit for even a rookie sniper.



67 years old and almost 300 lbs ... this guy is overdue for a widowmaker anyways.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

Is a widowmaker a cocktail made with Vodka? He might need a drink after standing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is a widowmaker a cocktail made with Vodka? He might need a drink after standing.



It's a Cardiac Special.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Beauty, eh?


I do wish the media would stop publicly announcing when NATO troops are inside Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Jun 27, 2022)

I appreciate Ukraine being rather tight lipped. However, it does sometimes seem to galvanize the West a bit. Others in the alliance are doing their part as it were. Keeping the war (or Special Military Oopsie) in short attention spanned minds. I do, however, agree with you.


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## at6 (Jun 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Uh oh, they are now pulling out the fat.... err big gun.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't shoot it. Sh!t splatters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I appreciate Ukraine being rather tight lipped. However, it does sometimes seem to galvanize the West a bit.


Just us civilian muppets. The others in the Alliance don’t rely on the media for partner updates.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just us civilian muppets. The others in the Alliance don’t rely on the media for partner updates.



I'd be willing to bet Ukraine shares much more info with NATO than they do with the media; and the latter is probably curated fairly closely. We in the peanut gallery can only lob charges of "propaganda!" and complain, if we're so inclined.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 28, 2022)

There is a great deal going on behind the curtain that we don't hear about.

Having "NATO troops" in Ukraine has been going on for years, it's nothing new.

They aren't killing Russians, they are teaching Ukrainians how to do that.

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## ThomasP (Jun 28, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Jun 28, 2022)

I swear, its the only country we've ever invaded and got pushed back, several times!

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I swear, its the only country we've ever invaded and got pushed back, several times!


The forts Britain built in Canada around the time of the US Civil War are the most impressive. Clearly Britain was concerned.

I'm a longtime fan of historic British forts and fortifications, and often seek them out in my travels. Below is my list thus far.....

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## Snautzer01 (Jun 28, 2022)

Cant open the dl i am afraid.


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## special ed (Jun 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I remember when Canadian forces had a permanent presence in Germany. The days of the cold war were an interesting time to live in the Fatherland.
> 
> A lil blast from the past…
> 
> ...


Who's image on your shirt?


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## special ed (Jun 28, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Looks like the russians are doing their best to derail the 'special operation':
> 
> boomerang missile
> 
> While it likely didn't hit the troops who fired it, it shows the general quality of the gear they are using.


Could the residual heat from multiple missile launches have caused the missile to return home?


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## SaparotRob (Jun 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The forts Britain built in Canada around the time of the US Civil War are the most impressive. Clearly Britain was concerned.
> 
> I'm a longtime fan of historic British forts and fortifications, and often seek them out in my travels. Below is my list thus far.....


I've seen the Quebec Citadel. Very impressive.


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## buffnut453 (Jun 28, 2022)

Maybe we need a thread for photos of forts and fortifications? It would be fun to see some of the places people have visited.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Maybe we need a thread for photos of forts and fortifications? It would be fun to see some of the places people have visited.


Didn't we have a thread about that, recently?


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## Mike Williams (Jun 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The forts Britain built in Canada around the time of the US Civil War are the most impressive. Clearly Britain was concerned.
> 
> I'm a longtime fan of historic British forts and fortifications, and often seek them out in my travels. Below is my list thus far.....


A bit tangential but I found the Revolutionary War era, British built Fort George in Castine, Maine very fascinating. Google Maps









Fort George (Castine, Maine) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 28, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> A bit tangential but I found the Revolutionary War era, British built Fort George in Castine, Maine very fascinating. Google Maps
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That fort is the location for Bernard Cornwell's (of Sharpe fame, and others) book, the Fort. I thoroughly enjoyed it The Fort (novel) - Wikipedia

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## Dimlee (Jun 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> US to announce purchase of medium- to long-range surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine
> 
> 
> The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased an advanced, medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine, a source familiar with the announcement tells CNN.
> ...


Allegedly, the training started already. Smart schedule.

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## Dimlee (Jun 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Or a Soviet era guided munition.


I wonder what is RCS of this general... Less than B-52 but larger than B-1, I guess.

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## GTX (Jun 28, 2022)

NATO to boost troops on high alert sevenfold in response to Russian aggression


NATO's secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance will conduct its "biggest overhaul" of collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Jun 28, 2022)

Confirmation needed but if true, this is huge.

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## GTX (Jun 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Confirmation needed but if true, this is huge.



Looking promising: Sweden, Finland are cleared to join NATO after Turkey drops objections

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## GTX (Jun 28, 2022)

Turkey lifts block on Finnish and Swedish NATO bids


The three countries signed a memorandum of understanding in Madrid on Tuesday evening, ahead of a summit of NATO leaders.




www.politico.eu

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 28, 2022)

Its also been reporting on Reuters, US News and Al Jazeera.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also announced it.



https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-06-28/turkey-clears-way-for-finland-sweden-to-join-nato-stoltenberg

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## Dimlee (Jun 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Confirmation needed but if true, this is huge.



Finlandization is over. Congratulations to Finns, Swedes and other free nations of the Baltic region.

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## GTX (Jun 28, 2022)

Now I wonder if Georgia would like to join NATO as well...









NATO's Door Open To Georgia But Political Reforms Needed, Envoy Says


NATO will not compromise on its open-door policy under pressure from Russia, but prospective members like Georgia must make significant domestic reforms and resolve territorial disputes to join the club, a top alliance official said.




www.rferl.org

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## GrauGeist (Jun 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Now I wonder if Georgia would like to join NATO as well...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not sure how Georgia would be able to solve it's territorial dispute with Russia, unless they expel the occupiers.

Which right now would be the best time to do so.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 28, 2022)

Now is the perfect time for all countries with territorial disputes with Russia to get them back, and I'd include Japan in that.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 28, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Finlandization is over. Congratulations to Finns, Swedes and other free nations of the Baltic region.


The most credit goes to Mr. Putin. This would never had been possible otherwise. What an idiot, lol

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## SaparotRob (Jun 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Now is the perfect time for all countries with territorial disputes with Russia to get them back, and I'd include Japan in that.


Especially with China. I think I would find that amusing.

The Sakhalin Islands are Japanese.


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## Dimlee (Jun 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Now is the perfect time for all countries with territorial disputes with Russia to get them back, and I'd include Japan in that.


As I understand, of all "Unequal Treaties", only those imposed by Russian Empire remain valid today. China is watching.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 28, 2022)

The history of China is complex, but *technically* speaking, the Republic of China (formerly known as Nationalist China, est. 1912) held mainland China until the Communists took control postwar and the government retreated to Taiwan.
If China (CCP) is adamant about "one China", then they need to turn the reigns over to the original government...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 28, 2022)

special ed said:


> Who's image on your shirt?



I have no clue. I don’t even remember owning it. lol

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## Jabberwocky (Jun 28, 2022)

Not posted here in a while. Comment on the ground war.

I argued way back at the end of April that Russia was replicating WW1 style 'bit and hold' tactics - and I think that's played out as somewhat accurate since then.
Russian M.O. in and around Donestk has been to build crushing local artillery superiority (reportedly anywhere from a 10:1 to 15:1 advantage), pound a section of the line of defense until they either withdraw or have their effectiveness reduced, and then send in the infantry with armoured support to secure small gains. Then rinse and repeat.

It's slow, painful and bloody work on both sides - but it seems that for Russia it's more palatable than having armoured columns charging about and being chewed up by ATGMs when they advance and artillery when they pause for resupply. 

Ukrainian losses have also risen as a result. With the country able to do little more than stubbornly make the invaders pay for the ground they take (there aren't enough operational reserves for anything other than local counter-attacks), it's forced to undertake a mostly static defense.

My question now is - who is going to buckle first? Russia is spending huge amounts of materiel and a considerable number of lives to maintain these incremental advances. Ukraine is stoically defending and has plenty of manpower, but the majority of its reinforcements amount to little more than light infantry and even Western support can't totally redress the imbalance (at least for the moment).

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Now is the perfect time for all countries with territorial disputes with Russia to get them back…


Mongolia would like a word.

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## AAIR (Jun 28, 2022)

Going back to the topic of subs in the Black Sea:



Russia’s Only Pump-Jet Kilo Class Submarine Is Back To Attack Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 28, 2022)

What happens tomorrow if Russia shoots missiles into Finland and Sweden before the Alliance is signed?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What happens tomorrow if Russia shoots missiles into Finland and Sweden before the Alliance is signed?



I bet that would accelerate the two nations' accession into NATO. The war won't widen immediately, but the Russians will now have fewer munitions which are needed in Ukraine, and have an angry northern frontier that will need guarding in Putin's mind. The Baltic will almost certainly be closed to Russian ships trying to exit the Skaggerak, as well.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What happens tomorrow if Russia shoots missiles into Finland and Sweden before the Alliance is signed?


I can't say for surw about Sweden, but Finland would most likely send missiles back.

Russia seems to forget that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can't say for surw about Sweden, but Finland would most likely send missiles back.
> 
> Russia seems to forget that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.



My son and I were talking about this earlier. He was like, "didn't they learn enough the first time?"

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## hawkeye2an (Jun 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, exactly what I was talking about re: electronics. If you've got a gun, getting into a knife-fight is dumb.
> 
> 
> 
> You and me both.


Bring a gun to a missile fight...............sheesh

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## ThomasP (Jun 29, 2022)

If Russia attacks Finland you can figure a couple of things:

Russia will have ~30 important road and railroad bridges on the Russian side of the Border destroyed within 2-3 days. The terrain between the major developed roadways and railways are just as problematic for off road movement today as they were in the Winter War and WWII.

The Russian Baltic Fleet will leave harbour and the Baltic before the attack and not be able to return for the duration, or it will be rendered immobile in harbour for the duration by Finland (and now probably its allies).

Kaliningrad will be totally cut off from Russia by sea (and air?), with Lithuanian monitored civilian movement oneway toward Russia and only empty trains or food trains back to Kaliningrad to reload.

Russia will have to withdraw its forces from Ukraine in order to prosecute operations against Finland, partly due to lack of manpower and partly due to due to lack of logistic support.

Russia will face the armed forces of a country that has considered a Russian attack the only real threat to its security for the last 60 years or so, and has planned its response accordingly.

Also see "The View From Finland: 'The Russian Garrisons Have Been Emptied. They Don't Have Anything'" for the view from Finland.

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## ThomasP (Jun 29, 2022)

Interesting bit of info that I did not see posted already.

Russia has been engaging in serious cyberattacks against Lithuania for the last few days. It does not sound like the attacks have been too problematic so far. Any one have any more solid info?


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## XBe02Drvr (Jun 29, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Bring a gun to a missile fight...............sheesh


OTH, if you’ve let the engagement degenerate into a knife fight, you're going to wish your missiles-only fighter actually had a gun.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can't say for surw about Sweden, but Finland would most likely send missiles back.
> 
> Russia seems to forget that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.


Planning and wider thinking aren’t Russia’s strong suits. Putin promised consequences for Finland and Sweden. His only chance to hit them is now.

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## ARTESH (Jun 29, 2022)

So, Will we see a 'Sumner war'???

I really hope that Russia spend all his troops in his attempts in EU, US destroys Islamic terrorists bases and infrastructures in ME, and our people start a fierce street fight to topple down the f**king traitor's regime!

Without the Russian and Terrorists support, the IRGC is like a rat fleeing from a sinking ship.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 29, 2022)

From the NATO summit this morning:

_Specifically, the president announced plans to permanently headquarter U.S. Army V Corps in Poland, add a rotational brigade in Europe stationed in Romania and increase rotational deployments to the Baltic states — moves that will bolster forces on NATO's easter flank.

Biden also said that the U.S. would send two more F-35 squadrons to the United Kingdom and add air defense and other capabilities in Germany and Italy. The president also highlighted plans to send two additional Navy destroyers to Spain, an announcement he made the day prior.

[...]

The summit saw a major development on its first day when Turkey dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden’s membership bids, paving the way for both countries to join the alliance. 

The three countries signed a memorandum pledging to deepen counterterrorism cooperation, in a nod to Ankara’s stated concerns about Finland and Sweden not doing enough to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group identified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S. and European countries. _



https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3540953-biden-announces-plans-to-bolster-us-force-presence-in-europe/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 29, 2022)

_MOSCOW June 29 (Reuters) - Russia hinted on Wednesday that it had not dropped the idea of seizing Western-owned assets and businesses in the country, as a top official sharply criticised governments that have hit Moscow with sanctions.

In a combative media briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that Russia was prepared to "act accordingly" if the West decided to use Russia's frozen state assets - chief among them being around $300 billion of central bank foreign currency reserves.

[...]

Zakharova called the West's move to freeze the assets - imposed in response to Moscow sending tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 - a violation of international law._









Russia warns West: Don't take your assets in our country for granted


Russia hinted on Wednesday that it had not dropped the idea of seizing Western-owned assets and businesses in the country, as a top official sharply criticised governments that have hit Moscow with sanctions.




www.reuters.com





Where was this deep concern for international law on 24 Feb?

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Biden also said that the U.S. would send two more F-35 squadrons to the United Kingdom and add air defense and other capabilities in Germany and Italy._


I think the RN needs more USMC F-35Bs asap, same as CSG21 when HMS QE sailed to the Far East with the USMC backstopping the small FAA F-35B force.

HMS QE and PoW are now deploying to counter Russia with almost no strike aircraft due to Britain having less than two dozen F-35Bs onhand, less one dumped into the Mediterranean.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the RN needs more USMC F-35Bs asap, same as CSG21 when HMS QE sailed to the Far East with the USMC backstopping the small FAA F-35B force.
> 
> HMS QE and PoW are now deploying to counter Russia with almost no strike aircraft due to Britain having less than two dozen F-35Bs onhand, less one dumped into the Mediterranean.




What's the point of building two expensive flattops if you don't procure airplanes to base upon them?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What's the point of building two expensive flattops if you don't procure airplanes to base upon them?


The British have ordered forty-eight F35Bs for their two carriers, receiving the first three almost ten years ago in 2013. But it's taken this long for a total of about twenty four to be delivered, with two understrength squadrons now operating the type. I expect the RAF/FAA won't have their full order of F35Bs (now increased to 75 aircraft, less one lost) onhand until early 2025. Until then the carriers will operate primarily small rotary airwings.









UK to purchase at least 74 F-35 jets | Navy Lookout







www.navylookout.com

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 29, 2022)

I think we should all chip in and send a dozen Sunflowers to Putin thanking him for helping Sweden and Finland join NATO

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## GrauGeist (Jun 29, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think we should all chip in and send a dozen Sunflowers to Putin thanking him for helping Sweden and Finland join NATO


Make it 13, to show just how much we care!

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## SaparotRob (Jun 29, 2022)

Let’s hear it for NATO’s man of the year. 
Or not.

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 29, 2022)

I'm sure the timing is just a coincidence......



https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/f-16-jets-turkey-biden-administration/2022/06/29/id/1076588/

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## SaparotRob (Jun 29, 2022)

What does the Turkish Air Force use that F-16s are to replace?


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well, you know how come the Canadians are so nice, don't you?


More Canadians going to Latvia.









Canada to deploy a general and staff to Latvia for new NATO unit -PM Trudeau


Canada will deploy a general and six staff officers to a new NATO unit in Latvia that will help plan, coordinate and integrate regional military activities, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday.




www.reuters.com





Perhaps the Leo2 will make an appearance.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What does the Turkish Air Force use that F-16s are to replace?


I think it’s adding to their existing early model F-16 force, including those made under license in Turkey.









Turkish Air Force - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





What they really wanted are F-35s. But I suspect the US is not ready to offer those to the Muslim world just yet.



https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/05/4-jarring-signs-of-turkeys-growing-islamization/276425/

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think it’s adding to their existing early model F-16 force, including those made under license in Turkey.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The F-35 issue has *nothing *to do with "the Muslim world" and everything to do with Turkey's purchase of Russian strategic SAM systems which must be integrated with Turkish and NATO IFF and other identification and communication measures. Turkey had signed up to purchase F-35s but that order was turned off because of Turkey's purchase of Russian SAMs.

Russian contractors help maintain and configure those strategic SAMs and would require technical information about the F-35 to integrate them into the Turkish defensive system. It would be incredibly foolish for the US to give away technical information about the F-35 to Russian nationals.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jun 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The F-35 issue has *nothing *to do with "the Muslim world" and everything to do with Turkey's purchase of Russian strategic SAM systems which must be integrated with Turkish and NATO IFF and other identification and communication measures. Turkey had signed up to purchase F-35s but that order was turned off because of Turkey's purchase of Russian SAMs.
> 
> Russian contractors help maintain and configure those strategic SAMs and would require technical information about the F-35 to integrate them into the Turkish defensive system. It would be incredibly foolish for the US to give away technical information about the F-35 to Russian nationals.



And Qatar is working out a potential sale.

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## ARTESH (Jun 29, 2022)

On a parallel world ...

" It's still too early for them to fly these hight-tech machines "

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jun 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And Qatar is working out a potential sale.


The potencial sale of F-35 is on the freezer, AFAIK, due to israelí concerns on losing the qualitative edge in the region.

Don't forget that SA & UAE blocked that country due to alleged ties with Irán.

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## GTX (Jun 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I can't say for surw about Sweden, but Finland would most likely send missiles back.
> 
> Russia seems to forget that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.


Yeah, a bunch of AGM-158s might find a use very quickly.

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## Glider (Jun 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What's the point of building two expensive flattops if you don't procure airplanes to base upon them?


I will bet almost any money you want no one from the current government will give a decent response to that question

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## GrauGeist (Jun 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And Qatar is working out a potential sale.


Indonesia has expressed interest in buying some.


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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 29, 2022)

Tweets that didn't age well







This one is specially meaningful today that turkey has raised his veto to Finland and Sweden

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

Scott Ritter...that guy's a real piece of work!

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## SaparotRob (Jun 29, 2022)

I have never heard of the fellow before. Is he an otherwise reliable source of non-biased commentary and news?


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## MiTasol (Jun 29, 2022)

I think he doubles down on a certain TV network using a name like Trucker something

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I have never heard of the fellow before. Is he an otherwise reliable source of non-biased commentary and news?



No, he’s a self-aggrandizing jerk who made his name criticizing American policy regarding Iraq. I have no problem with that but lately he’s become a mouthpiece for Russia because he refuses to accept the western media’s portrayal of the invasion of Ukraine. Oh….and he’s been arrested twice and convicted once of making inappropriate approaches to underage girls online, including exposing himself. I respect his military service but in all other respects the guy is a douchebag.

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## gumbyk (Jun 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> No, he’s a self-aggrandizing jerk who made his name criticizing American policy regarding Iraq. I have no problem with that but lately he’s become a mouthpiece for Russia because he refuses to accept the western media’s portrayal of the invasion of Ukraine. Oh….and he’s been arrested twice and convicted once of making inappropriate approaches to underage girls online, including exposing himself. I respect his military service but in all other respects the guy is a douchebag.


What?!? He's American?


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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> What?!? He's American?



A retired USMC intelligence officer.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 29, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> What?!? He's American?


Sadly, yes...

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

He also famously declared of the invasion of Iraq, "The United States is going to leave Iraq with its tail between its legs, defeated. It is a war we can not win ... We do not have the military means to take over Baghdad and for this reason I believe the defeat of the United States in this war is inevitable ... Every time we confront Iraqi troops we may win some tactical battles, as we did for ten years in Vietnam, but we will not be able to win this war, which in my opinion is already lost."


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## FLYBOYJ (Jun 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A retired USMC intelligence officer.


He's the poster child, "Military Intelligence is an Oxy*moron*."

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## GrauGeist (Jun 29, 2022)

I suspect that he, and other noise-making clowns like him, get some form of kickback from Moscow.

Russia is very skilled in the art of information wars and getting high profile mouthpieces like Ritter to spew crap and confusion in their favor cannot be a coincidence.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suspect that he, and other noise-making clowns like him, get some form of kickback from Moscow.
> 
> Russia is very skilled in the art of information wars and getting high profile mouthpieces like Ritter to spew crap and confusion in their favor cannot be a coincidence.



If not, then they're a virulent internal threat to the US. He's loudly promoted the idea that the Bucha Massacre was conducted by Ukraine and that Russia wasn't to blame for it. I'm all for free speech but sometimes it really bites when idiots like him directly undermine actual evidence. 

I understand his antipathy to the western media but what about western intelligence services? Are they all part of the great conspiracy against Russia? Oh, and not forgetting the UN's war crimes investigators. If Ukraine perpetrated these crimes, why would they actively invite investigators to view the scenes and gather evidence? Yes, it could be staged but the scale of stuff that's been reported as under investigation means it would be impossible to perfectly mock-up all the evidence. 

He's another of these oxygen thieves who makes bold claims and when called on them jumps straight to conspiracy theories. He's incredibly arrogant, and firmly of the opinion that he's right and everyone else is an idiot...and yet, AFAIK, he only made it to major in the military. There simply aren't words....

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## MiTasol (Jun 29, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Going back to the topic of subs in the Black Sea:
> 
> 
> 
> Russia’s Only Pump-Jet Kilo Class Submarine Is Back To Attack Ukraine



Does anyone make an underwater version of the Bayraktor clone?

If so Ukraine needs a couple to visit Sevastopol and pay its respects to that refurbished sub - and any other items that deserve similar respect

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> If not, then they're a virulent internal threat to the US. He's loudly promoted the idea that the Bucha Massacre was conducted by Ukraine and that Russia wasn't to blame for it. I'm all for free speech but sometimes it really bites when idiots like him directly undermine actual evidence.
> 
> I understand his antipathy to the western media but what about western intelligence services? Are they all part of the great conspiracy against Russia? Oh, and not forgetting the UN's war crimes investigators. If Ukraine perpetrated these crimes, why would they actively invite investigators to view the scenes and gather evidence? Yes, it could be staged but the scale of stuff that's been reported as under investigation means it would be impossible to perfectly mock-up all the evidence.
> 
> He's another of these oxygen thieves who makes bold claims and when called on them jumps straight to conspiracy theories. He's incredibly arrogant, and firmly of the opinion that he's right and everyone else is an idiot...and yet, AFAIK, he only made it to major in the military. There simply aren't words....



I don't want to wade into politics here, but it's a fact that conspiracist thinking here in America is adding to our national divide, and that Russian troll-farms have an active and traceable part in it.

I don't know about this cat, he may just be a nutter, or he may be on someone's payroll, I have no idea. I only know that applying Occam's Razor keeps me out of a lot of bullshit. I will leave it at that here, and if anyone has any questions please PM me rather than threaten the thread.

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## at6 (Jun 30, 2022)

With Finland and Sweden now invited to join NATO, it may only be a matter of days[Hopefully] until they become full members. They sooner the better.

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## Glider (Jun 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> With Finland and Sweden now invited to join NATO, it may only be a matter of days[Hopefully] until they become full members. They sooner the better.


I notice that when the idea of Sweden and Finland were first reported as thinking of joining NATO, Putin made all kinds of threat as to what Russia would do if they formally asked. Then when they made the formal request there were less dire threats. 
Now the road blocks are out of the way, its now, _We don't mind if they join Nato as we have no territorial issues with Sweden or Finland_ (Despite this now turning the Baltic into a NATO lake, and cutting St Petersburg off) as long as NATO don't put any infrastructure into those countries.
What's the betting nothing would happen if NATO build some facilities there.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> I notice that when the idea of Sweden and Finland were first reported as thinking of joining NATO, Putin made all kinds of threat as to what Russia would do if they formally asked. Then when they made the formal request there were less dire threats.
> Now the road blocks are out of the way, its now, _We don't mind if they join Nato as we have no territorial issues with Sweden or Finland_ (Despite this now turning the Baltic into a NATO lake, and cutting St Petersburg off) as long as NATO don't put any infrastructure into those countries.
> What's the betting nothing would happen if NATO build some facilities there.



And yet Moscow continues with the same pattern, now threatening Turkey with consequences for agreeing to let Sweden and Finland into NATO:









Russian official warns of consequences for Turkey backing NATO expansion


Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky said Turkey should not be "too flattered about the assurances" it received in exchange for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.




www.newsweek.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> I notice that when the idea of Sweden and Finland were first reported as thinking of joining NATO, Putin made all kinds of threat as to what Russia would do if they formally asked. Then when they made the formal request there were less dire threats.
> Now the road blocks are out of the way, its now, _We don't mind if they join Nato as we have no territorial issues with Sweden or Finland_ (Despite this now turning the Baltic into a NATO lake, and cutting St Petersburg off) as long as NATO don't put any infrastructure into those countries.
> What's the betting nothing would happen if NATO build some facilities there.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 30, 2022)

Here again, affirmation that Russia (Soviet Union - take your pick) relies on their blustery saber rattling schoolyard bully threats to cow every one.

The Snake Island defenders said it like it is and Ukraine has proven that Russia is an angry schoolyard bully with a glass jaw.

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## buffnut453 (Jun 30, 2022)

Speaking of Snake Island, Ukraine is reporting that Russian forces have evacuated the place:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61987663

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> its now, _We don't mind if they join Nato as we have no territorial issues with Sweden or Finland_ (Despite this now turning the Baltic into a NATO lake, and cutting St Petersburg off) as long as NATO don't put any infrastructure into those countries.


I recall somewhere that Finland committed to not permanently basing NATO forces.


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## Admiral Beez (Jun 30, 2022)

So now China's in NATO's crosshairs? That's a long way from the North Atlantic.









Nato leaders voice concern about threat China poses to world order for first time


Beijing’s efforts to build up nuclear forces, hacking operations and increasingly close ties to Moscow are ‘serious challenges’, says Nato secretary general




www.theguardian.com





_"Thanks a lot Putin, we were counting on Western complacency and disunity, plus their hunger for our cheap goods to cover our move on Taiwan, you dumb ass"_ said President XI.

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## swampyankee (Jun 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And yet Moscow continues with the same pattern, now threatening Turkey with consequences for agreeing to let Sweden and Finland into NATO:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There's a long history between Russia and Turkey and the Ottoman Empire, none of it good.

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## wlewisiii (Jun 30, 2022)



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## Denniss (Jun 30, 2022)

"Leaving Snake Island as a sign of good will" - Hah. Hardly believable.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So now China's in NATO's crosshairs?



This phrasing implies that NATO is _aiming_ for problems with China.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Speaking of Snake Island, Ukraine is reporting that Russian forces have evacuated the place:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61987663



NPR here is reporting that the withdrawal is the result of a heavy bombardment overnight.

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## Denniss (Jun 30, 2022)

Or someone higher up finally got someone else to do a proper calculation: shall we try to reinforce this small island and risking more ships/helos to be lost or do we leavy this small rocky island as fast as possible?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Or someone higher up finally got someone else to do a proper calculation: shall we try to reinforce this small island and risking more ships/helos to be lost or do we leavy this small rocky island as fast as possible?



Not all withdrawals are bad moves, and this one is probably smart for Russia, given the losses they're suffering in the Donbas.

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## Dimlee (Jun 30, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Not posted here in a while. Comment on the ground war.
> 
> I argued way back at the end of April that Russia was replicating WW1 style 'bit and hold' tactics - and I think that's played out as somewhat accurate since then.
> Russian M.O. in and around Donestk has been to build crushing local artillery superiority (reportedly anywhere from a 10:1 to 15:1 advantage), pound a section of the line of defense until they either withdraw or have their effectiveness reduced, and then send in the infantry with armoured support to secure small gains. Then rinse and repeat.
> ...


Actually, Ukrainian defence is mostly mobile and maneuverable. It becomes static in certain places which are considered critical and are defended stubbornly as Severodonetsk recently. But this is just a small portion of a frontline.
As for who is going to buckle first... Russia has choices while Ukraine has none. It's fight or be eliminated situation for the nation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

_June 30 (Reuters) - Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that in certain circumstances, sanctions against Moscow may be seen as an act of aggression and a justification for war.

"I would like to point out once again that under certain circumstances such hostile measures can also qualify as an act of international aggression. And even as a casus belli (justification for war)," Medvedev said, adding that Russia has the right to defend itself._









Russia's Medvedev says sanctions could be justification for war


Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that in certain circumstances, sanctions against Moscow may be seen as an act of aggression and a justification for war.




www.reuters.com





As my late stepfather Bob would say, "You've got the easy part done ... the talking."

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## GrauGeist (Jun 30, 2022)

It's rather interesting to see Russia's interpretation of "war".

It's ok to invade a sovereign nation under false pretenses, kill it's people, level it's cities and steal everything in sight.

But as soon as anyone objects, then those objections (none of which are lethal) is seen as an "act of war"?

Unreal...

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 30, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> As for who is going to buckle first... Russia has choices while Ukraine has none. It's fight or be eliminated situation for the nation.


I hope I am wrong, but I fear Ukraine will buckle. Russia has India and China buying its oil as a financial backstop and an autocrat in power of a country populated by sheeple, where the government cares not about how many die in the name of whatever cause it is pursuing. On the other hand, Ukraine is dependent on the charity and attention of the West, which is a fickle beast.

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## fubar57 (Jun 30, 2022)

Just saw this news blurb scrolling across the bottom of the screen while watching Global News and wondered WTF.....
"PUTIN SAYS WESTERN LEADERS WOULD LOOK "DISGUSTING SHIRTLESS" 
I need context here so a quick search.... G7 Leaders Propose Giving 'Bare-Chested Horseback Riding Display' to Show Putin How 'Tough' They Are

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## Crimea_River (Jun 30, 2022)

Well, I'm glad Merkl is gone...

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Speaking of Snake Island, Ukraine is reporting that Russian forces have evacuated the place:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61987663



Longer version here.








Snake Island: Why Russia couldn't hold on to strategic Black Sea outcrop


Russia claims it is a gesture of goodwill, but the withdrawal from a Black Sea rock is a big defeat.



www.bbc.com





Russian version is lovely, I didn't expect anything else, did you?
_Russian Defence Ministry claims that Russian troops there had simply completed "assigned tasks" and left._

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## Zipper730 (Jun 30, 2022)

Is there any odds of escalations to nuclear war or other WMD happening over Kaliningrad?

I've heard arguments going both way.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 30, 2022)

There is no official information from any of the parties yet, but ... reportedly a Russian landing craft was blown by a mine near Mariupol.









Russian landing boat blew up on a mine near Mariupol - Goncharenko - Global Happenings


There is no official information from any of the parties yet The landing craft of the Black Sea Fleet D-106 was blown up / Photo: Collage: Today Near Mariupol, a Russian landing boat of project 1176 "Shark" of the Black Sea Fleet D-106 was blown up by a mine. This…




globalhappenings.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 30, 2022)

More on snake island, now that Russians are gone, Ukraine disclosed some "war porn".
Never heard of Bohdana 155mm before.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 30, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Longer version here.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



_List of assigned tasks at Snake Island:
1) expend a great deal of time and effort for little gain.
2) have material and equipment destroyed before they can be employed.
3) have ships damaged and/or sunk.
4) have personnel killed and/or wounded without ever meeting the enemy.
5) have air assets destroyed._

Looks like a job well done

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## RogerdeLluria (Jun 30, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> Is there any odds of escalations to nuclear war or other WMD happening over Kaliningrad?
> 
> I've heard arguments going both way.











Exclusive: EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad


Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (Jun 30, 2022)

Here's a radical idea....what if the UN asked to base a neutral maritime force in Odessa, with a detachment on Snake Island, to escort grain shipments out of Ukraine? 

The Egyptian and Morroccan navies are pretty sizeable and it probably wouldn't take many ships to do the job. It's not NATO-led but the key beneficiaries of the grain exports would likely be African nations. Inserting a neutral maritime force into the Black Sea would also limit Russia's freedom of maneuver to attack either Odessa or Snake Island. 

I recognize that Moscow would likely refuse such a proposal...but I think it's a good idea, and at least feasible from a resourcing perspective.

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## GTX (Jun 30, 2022)

Ukrainian postal services have opened a store on Amazon and is the 1st postal company in the world to do it, says #Ukrposhta CEO Ihor Smilyanskiy.

You can but stamps with the "Russian warship..." and other items.

Amazon.com

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## GTX (Jun 30, 2022)

U.S. to increase presence in Europe, strengthen NATO alliance


The United States will enlarge its troop presence in Europe, strengthening the NATO alliance. President Joe Biden made the announcement June 29, 2022, at the




www.aerotechnews.com

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## vikingBerserker (Jun 30, 2022)

Good lord.


GTX said:


> Ukrainian postal services have opened a store on Amazon and is the 1st postal company in the world to do it, says #Ukrposhta CEO Ihor Smilyanskiy.
> 
> You can but stamps with the "Russian warship..." and other items.
> 
> Amazon.com




Thanks! I had to buy sheet of the the F U stamps

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Exclusive: EU nears compromise deal to defuse standoff with Russia over Kaliningrad
> 
> 
> Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow.
> ...



Lithuania should charge passage fees equivalent to the money Russia is getting from selling oil to China and India.

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## Admiral Beez (Jun 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Well, I'm glad Merkl is gone...


She’s better re. Russia than her predecessor, Putin’s puppet Schröder.


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## Crimea_River (Jun 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> She’s better re. Russia than her predecessor, Putin’s puppet Schröder.


Agreed but it was a joke.


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## GTX (Jun 30, 2022)

Russia abandons Snake Island in strategic victory for Ukraine, followed by missile killing 10 in Odesa residential building


Russian forces abandon the strategic Black Sea outpost of Snake Island, in a major victory for Ukraine that could loosen a Russian grain export blockade threatening to worsen global hunger.




www.abc.net.au

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## Denniss (Jun 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not all withdrawals are bad moves


I know that but russian leadership did not get it for months

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## SaparotRob (Jun 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Well, I'm glad Merkl is gone...


You didn't have enough beer.

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## GrauGeist (Jun 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You didn't have enough beer.


Man, there is NOT enough beer on the planet to justify seeing her riding bare-chested on a horse...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I know that but russian leadership did not get it for months



I wasn't nagging you, 
D
 Denniss
, and I'm sorry if it sounded like I was. I'm just happy the Ukrainians refused the invited _hexenkessel_. "Tis better to live and fight another day", in a place better-suited for victory.


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## fubar57 (Jun 30, 2022)



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## WARSPITER (Jun 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Agreed but it was a joke.


As in 'guess which one is the horse' ?

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## at6 (Jun 30, 2022)

Several years back there was a reporter doing doing a story about Europe. He sad "Something ugly will be coming from Europe' And immediately a picture of Merkel appeared on the screen. I laughed so hard that my sides started to hurt. Even now it makes me chuckle.

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## MiTasol (Jun 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _June 30 (Reuters) - Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that in certain circumstances, sanctions against Moscow may be seen as an act of aggression and a justification for war.
> 
> "I would like to point out once again that under certain circumstances such hostile measures can also qualify as an act of international aggression. And even as a casus belli (justification for war)," Medvedev said, *adding that Russia has the right to defend itself.*_
> 
> ...


 
Every time that Medvedev, and every other Putler mouthpiece, says _*Russia has the right to defend itself *_the Ukrainian spokespersons, and many others, need to quote him and add *and everyone except Russia says that Ukraine has that same right.*

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## Glider (Jun 30, 2022)

If you can this is worth listening to. Its a report from the BBC which has concentrated its reporting on one unit of the Russian airborne forces. It traces the history of the 331st Regiment from just before the start of the campaign to the current day. The total estimated casualties including the wounded is between 4-500 in this one unit.
However what impressed me was the way the details have been compiled using Russian sources and the access the team were obviously given at least at the start of the campaign, by Russia.

BBC Two - Newsnight, Revealing the hidden casualties of one elite Russian regiment in Ukraine

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## MiTasol (Jun 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I recall somewhere that Finland committed to not permanently basing NATO forces.



That is fine - they just rotate every unit out every couple of years

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jun 30, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Every time that Medvedev, and every other Putler mouthpiece, says _*Russia has the right to defend itself *_the Ukrainian spokespersons, and many others, need to quote him and add *and everyone except Russia says that Ukraine has that same right.*



Yes, the hypocrisy is astounding, much as their appeal to international law as I noted above. The fact they think no one notices this bullshit says more about them, and their attempt to gaslight the world, than it does about anyone else.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> That is fine - they just rotate every unit out every couple of years


I’m not sure that’s how it works. Are any NATO forces permanently based in Norway?


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## hawkeye2an (Jul 1, 2022)

fubar57 said:


>



Hope this historic airplane can be restored, but it would be a monumental task.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 1, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Hope this historic airplane can be restored, but it would be a monumental task.


Branson has the money.

If they can build airworthy WWII warbirds from an ID tag, then the Mirya will be a piece of cake.

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## ThomasP (Jul 1, 2022)

re the permanent stationing of NATO forces in Finland.

I believe this refers to an agreement made sometime back in the '80s or '90s(?) between the US/NATO and the Soviet Union/Russia Federation involving basing large units of potentially offensive nature at bases close to the border(s). In other words, there would be no permanent basing/infrastructure of extra-national division(?) or larger sized combat units within a given distance of the border. Advance notice would be given when such large units would move to and engage in training maneuvers/exercises near the border(s). The idea was to remove the ability of large surprise attacks into the other's territory.

A US/NATO alliance division sized base of operations, with all of the required support personnel and materiel/supplies to enable the unit to operate in an effective war making manner for any period of time, would constitute a violation of the agreement. I do not remember in detail what the actual definition of the prohibited infrastructure was.

Sorry, but I do not recall what the name of the agreement was, or specifically when it was made.

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## ThomasP (Jul 1, 2022)

COMINT/HUMINT reports indicated that the Snake Island occupation troops were failing in morale due to lack of supply (including drinkable water) and due to inability to perform any offensive operations. Basically they could only sit there and get hit by Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes. This was potentially due to get even worse now that HIMARS/MLRS are entering the war.

However, there is some truth to the Russian occupation of Snake Island accomplishing something useful. It denied the Ukrainian forces a forward base for their Neptune missiles, which could reach as far as the entry-waters to Sevastopol harbour. Due to the successful invasion of the southern parts of Ukraine (including the off-shore islands in Kherson Oblast) to the north and northwest of Crimea, Snake Island is the only location available to the UAF within the range of the Neptune.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 1, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> More on snake island, now that Russians are gone, Ukraine disclosed some "war porn".
> *Never heard of Bohdana 155mm before.*



I was surprised that a Ukrainian gun was 155 mm and not 152. Thought it was a mistake, so I searched a bit.
2S22 Bohdana is a Ukrainian designed self-propelled howitzer, and its the first using standard 155 mm NATO ammo. It seems that Ukraine was already considering switching to NATO standards, which clearly has been accelerated by the war.

Unfortunately there is a single piece of this experimental weapon and its not clear that they can produce more.









Ukraine Made Exactly One Copy Of Its Best Cannon. It Just Joined The War.


As a Russian army attacked across Ukraine along multiple fronts starting on Feb. 23, the 155-millimeter 2S22, mounted on a six-by-six KrAZ-6322 truck, narrowly escaped destruction—by Kramatorsk’s own employees.




www.forbes.com






https://mil.in.ua/en/news/experimental-2s22-bohdana-self-propelled-howitzer-is-destroying-the-invader-forces

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 1, 2022)

Not sure if that includes shipments already done or only future commitments, but anyway good news coming from Madrid.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 1, 2022)

Weren't Russians expected to take Kiev in 3 days too?

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## Dimlee (Jul 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope I am wrong, but I fear Ukraine will buckle. Russia has India and China buying its oil as a financial backstop and an autocrat in power of a country populated by sheeple, where the government cares not about how many die in the name of whatever cause it is pursuing. On the other hand, Ukraine is dependent on the charity and attention of the West, which is a fickle beast.


And the West, at least, "the eastern" West, is dependent on the outcome of the battles in Ukraine.

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## Dimlee (Jul 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> COMINT/HUMINT reports indicated that the Snake Island occupation troops were failing in morale due to lack of supply (including drinkable water) and due to inability to perform any offensive operations. Basically they could only sit there and get hit by Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes. This was potentially due to get even worse now that HIMARS/MLRS are entering the war.
> 
> However, there is some truth to the Russian occupation of Snake Island accomplishing something useful. It denied the Ukrainian forces a forward base for their Neptune missiles, which could reach as far as the entry-waters to Sevastopol harbour. Due to the successful invasion of the southern parts of Ukraine (including the off-shore islands in Kherson Oblast) to the north and northwest of Crimea, Snake Island is the only location available to the UAF within the range of the Neptune.


Ukrainian missiles (and any other expensive equipment) can not be based on the island because they will be targeted by Russian missiles. And Ukrainian air defence is too weak to protect the island. Actually, it was well understood by Ukrainian military planners who never tried to make a permanent base there. Until someone (rumours say - the president who overrode General Staff) decided to set the permanent garrison and complement the border guards with Marines. Wrong decision, IMO.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 1, 2022)

While Russian keeps threatening countries to kick their arse, maybe they should start with something small to achieve a true victory.

It has been rumored that Mrs Petrov at the corner of 25th and Lodi uses White Detroit beetroots in her Borscht
and after seeing Putin without his shirt stated she'd see better pecs on her chicken "Sofia"






The Russian forces could be led by acting General "Junior Sargent Ivan Ivanov" now the highest ranking military soldier not wounded.

Leading the 1st and 2nd Motorized Rifles Battalions with a Tank Regiment in reserve and supported by the 2nd Self Prepared Artillery Battalion they should be able to storm the small farm house in 30 days, or 35 days if her front gate is closed. 

It has been rumored she owns an old single shotgun and an iron frying pan so casualties would be expected to reach 10%. 20% if her cat "Mildred" is home.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 1, 2022)

_July 1 (Reuters) - As Russia's military continues to pound Ukraine with missiles and other lethal weapons, Western nations have responded in part by targeting Russia's defense industry with sanctions. The latest round came on Tuesday, when the United States issued new sanctions on some arms makers and executives at the heart of what it dubbed Russian President Vladimir Putin's "war machine."

But a Reuters examination of companies, executives and investors underpinning Russia's defense sector shows a sizable number of players have yet to pay a price: Nearly three dozen leaders of Russian weapons firms and at least 14 defense companies have not been sanctioned by the United States, the European Union or the United Kingdom. In addition, sanctions on Russia's arms makers and tycoons have been applied inconsistently by these NATO allies, with some governments levying penalties and others not, the Reuters review showed.


Among the weapons moguls who have not been sanctioned by any of those three authorities is Alan Lushnikov, the largest shareholder of Kalashnikov Concern JSC, the original manufacturer of the well-known AK-47 assault rifle. Lushnikov owns a 75% stake in the firm, according to the most recent business records reviewed by Reuters.

The company itself was sanctioned by the United States in 2014, the year Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. The EU and UK leveled their own sanctions against Kalashnikov Concern this year.


The company accounts for 95% of Russia's production of machine guns, sniper rifles, pistols and other handheld firearms, and 98% of its handheld military machine guns, according to its website and most recent annual report. Its weapons include the AK-12 assault rifle, an updated version of the AK-47, some of which have been captured from Russian forces by Ukrainian soldiers. The Kalashnikov Concern also produces missiles that can be fired from aircraft or on land.


A former Russian deputy transport minister, Lushnikov once worked for commodities tycoon Gennady Timchenko, a longtime friend of Putin. The United States sanctioned Timchenko in 2014 following Russia's invasion of Crimea, naming him as a member of the Kremlin's "inner circle."

Neither Lushnikov, Timchenko or the Kalashnikov Concern responded to requests for comment.

It's the same pattern with Almaz-Antey Concern, a Moscow-based defense company specializing in missiles and anti-aircraft systems. The company has been sanctioned by the United States, EU and UK, but CEO Yan Novikov has not been punished.

Almaz-Antey's website displays the motto "Peaceful Sky is Our Profession." The company makes Kalibr missiles, which Russia's Ministry of Defense has credited with destroying Ukrainian military installations.

[...]

Other companies in Russia's defense industry identified by Reuters that have not been sanctioned by the United States, EU or UK include the V.A. Degtyarev Plant(ZDEGI.MM), a facility 165 miles northeast of Moscow that makes machine guns, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons that are sold to the Russian military. Its weapons include the Kalashnikov PKM and PKTM machine guns, as well as Kord rifles and machine guns, some of which are mounted on armored vehicles.

[...]

Also not sanctioned is the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant, south of Moscow, where "world-famous cartridges" for pistols and Kalashnikov assault rifles are produced, according to an archived version of its website. Neither is the Novosibirsk Cartridge Plant, an ammunition manufacturer that calls itself "one of the leading engineering enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Russia."_









Special Report: Dozens of Russian weapons tycoons have faced no Western sanctions


A Reuters examination of companies, executives and investors underpinning Russia's defense sector shows a sizable number of players have yet to pay a price.




www.reuters.com





Additionally:

_
* The RIA news agency quoted Russia's defence ministry as saying on Friday that Russian forces had captured an oil refinery in the Ukrainian city of Lysychansk.


* Reuters could not independently verify the battlefield accounts._









Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now


At least three people were killed and dozens of homes damaged by blasts in the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, the regional governor said, while Ukrainian forces hit a Russian military base in occupied southern Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 1, 2022)

I hope those listed and not sanctioned was due to an oversight and will be quickly corrected.

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## Crimea_River (Jul 1, 2022)

Written news on this from our national news sources is scarce but Canada has confirmed it will be sending 39 brand new LAV II's previously destined for the Canadian Army to Ukraine over the course of the summer. Canada will send 39 LAV II ACSV light armored vehicles to Ukraine

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I hope those listed and not sanctioned was due to an oversight and will be quickly corrected.



The NRA lobbied to not have them sanctioned as they are small arms manufacturers.

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## Dimlee (Jul 1, 2022)

Two NASAMS. Step by step...








$820 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine


The Defense Department announced $820 million in additional security assistance for Ukraine.



www.defense.gov





150,000 x 155 mm. Probably enough for 2 weeks.

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## Glider (Jul 1, 2022)

I am interested in the 600 tanks Biden promised, what types and from where.

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 1, 2022)

I am waiting for 200 kitchen sinks.

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The NRA lobbied to not have them sanctioned as they are small arms manufacturers.


That cant be true, can it?

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## buffnut453 (Jul 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> That cant be true, can it?



Sadly, it is. The US imports a large quantity of small arms ammo for use by the general public. The NRA was depicting US sanctions against Russia as an indirect means of imposing gun controls on the US population. 

You really can't make up this stuff!

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## GTX (Jul 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> That cant be true, can it?


Would the NRA ever allow anything to get in the way of a gun or associated sale?


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 1, 2022)

I am a european so i dont know jack about it, but whats wrong with american ammo then? Seems to work quire well not to long ago. ( yes we are still very glad some of the boys came along to say hi. )

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## SaparotRob (Jul 1, 2022)

$$$$$

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## GrauGeist (Jul 1, 2022)

The cheap ammo source is China, which manufactures a wide range of calibers - not sure why anyone would want Russian stuff.


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## nuuumannn (Jul 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The NRA was depicting US sanctions against Russia as an indirect means of imposing gun controls on the US population.



 How do you say "They're gonna take our guns!" in Russian?

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## SaparotRob (Jul 1, 2022)

oops


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## SaparotRob (Jul 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The cheap ammo source is China, which manufactures a wide range of calibers - not sure why anyone would want Russian stuff.


Irony?


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## SaparotRob (Jul 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> How do you say "They're gonna take our guns!" in Russian?


NYET!


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## special ed (Jul 1, 2022)

Much of the cheapest Russian ammo is steel cased. Probably extracts best only their rifles and hand guns. When ammo was cheaper and more available a few years ago, I found Austrian and Serbian both inexpensive and reliable.

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## glennasher (Jul 1, 2022)

special ed said:


> Much of the cheapest Russian ammo is steel cased. Probably extracts best only their rifles and hand guns. When ammo was cheaper and more available a few years ago, I found Austrian and Serbian both inexpensive and reliable.


I like the Bosnian stuff, myself. Good, clean shooting stuff, unlike the Russian ammo.

China has been banned from selling ammo in the US for a long time now, almost 30 years . Imports of Russian ammo was banned within the last year, though ammo already on order was allowed to be imported. I suspect an awful lot of ammo was "on order" when the ban was called. I've never shot the Russian ammo, but did shoot a fair amount of Chicom 7.62x39 when it was available. All of that ammo was pretty mediocre at best.

NRA Life member.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Sadly, it is. The US imports a large quantity of small arms ammo for use by the general public. The NRA was depicting US sanctions against Russia as an indirect means of imposing gun controls on the US population.
> 
> You really can't make up this stuff!



Ok, I was making a funny. I did not realize there was some truth to it.

Having said that, I’m not surprised.

Former NRA member. Glad I no longer am.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 1, 2022)

Watch: Ukrainian Troops Blast Russian HQ With British-Made M777 Howitzers


Ukrainian troops blitzed a Russian base and reportedly destroyed their headquarters, a warehouse and armored vehicles, as can be seen in footage released by the Ukrainian military.




www.newsweek.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 1, 2022)

Former defense secretary James Mattis rips Putin's 'pathetic' military performance in Ukraine: 'We're watching Russia wither before our eyes'


James Mattis condemned "the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort" of Russia's war with Ukraine.




www.businessinsider.com

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## nuuumannn (Jul 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Former NRA member. Glad I no longer am.



If the NRA would only leave politics out of it, the whole issue of gun ownership wouldn't be so comically sad, to an outsider, that is.

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## nuuumannn (Jul 1, 2022)

"the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort"

Mattis' words on the invasion. Sums it up rather well, I reckon.

I read some papers written by Mattis for Air Power Studies as part of my degree. He's a smart man, alright.

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## Dimlee (Jul 2, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Former defense secretary James Mattis rips Putin's 'pathetic' military performance in Ukraine: 'We're watching Russia wither before our eyes'
> 
> 
> James Mattis condemned "the immoral, the tactically incompetent, operationally stupid and strategically foolish effort" of Russia's war with Ukraine.
> ...


I liked what he said about allies. Ironically, there is an old Russian saying known to everyone from the kindergarten age: не имей сто рублей, но имей сто друзей - do not have 100 roubles but do have 100 friends. Again and again, Kremlin acts contrary to the common sense and disregarding the ancient wisdom.

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## Dimlee (Jul 2, 2022)

Russian ammunition depot turns into a mushroom near Popasnaya. Magic.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Russian ammunition depot turns into a mushroom near Popasnaya. Magic.



When?


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## Zipper730 (Jul 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's rather interesting to see Russia's interpretation of "war".
> 
> It's ok to invade a sovereign nation under false pretenses, kill it's people, level it's cities and steal everything in sight.
> 
> ...


I know, right?



XBe02Drvr said:


> I think you're giving them too much benefit of the doubt. Their goal is to render Ukraine non viable as a nation state and depopulate it so they can rebuild it in their own image with their own emigrant population of compliant "Rodina-philes". For that goal, terror works.


It adds up and appears to conform to their actions.


> does the Emperor in fact have no clothes?


Not sure Wes, but he has posed without a shirt a lot of times...



buffnut453 said:


> Here's a radical idea....what if the UN asked to base a neutral maritime force in Odessa, with a detachment on Snake Island, to escort grain shipments out of Ukraine?


Egypt and Morocco would be reliable for this purpose?

*On the subject of Scott Ritter...*


> he's been arrested twice and convicted once of making inappropriate approaches to underage girls online, including exposing himself.


That explains a lot. You know of the concept of sexual blackmail, right? It's not something that's unique to any nation, but it's a common practice by nations, governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations (the concept is even used in organized crime, known there as "mutual guilt" -- not _remorse_ guilt -- *criminal* guilt). It might explain some of his current views...

*On the subject of Cyber-Attacks and Other Attacks...*


ThomasP said:


> Russia has been engaging in serious cyberattacks against Lithuania for the last few days. It does not sound like the attacks have been too problematic so far. Any one have any more solid info?


What I'm concerned about are if cyber-attacks are launched against us. I'm curious what would deter against those?

While the possibility of biological attacks have been so far considered unlikely, would it be fair to respond to biological warfare attacks with an all-out nuclear-strike? It seems the only thing that would deter such an opponent from doing it.

Regarding cyber-attacks: From what I recall, the LGM-30's had fairly primitive electronics that were not easily hacked, so they'd survive a cyber-attack most-likely.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 2, 2022)

Ukrainian goat injures Russian soldiers by triggering their own tripwires


The Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that a goat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast caused an explosion that wounded several Russian troopers by setting off their own grenade…




nypost.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 2, 2022)

You know this is the Russian Air Force because three out of four bombs missed the island.

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## Dimlee (Jul 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> What I'm concerned about are if cyber-attacks are launched against us. I'm curious what would deter against those?


Against the USA? But they happened already. Directly, as an attack on the Colonial Pipeline and indirectly, as in the case of NotPetya. Probably, they are happening right now.

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## Dimlee (Jul 2, 2022)

About HIMARS in Ukraine.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/01/ukraine-himars-rocket-launch-system/?fbclid=IwAR3y7CPi8kES5cNTBf6AsxBZfk9Ouy1XC4qA3QWWmwSTtQ5LdLK9xINZsvQ

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## Dimlee (Jul 2, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> When?


No date mentioned yet.


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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 2, 2022)

On the bad news side it seems Ukrainians are forced to retreat from Lysychansk under encirclement risk.


Edit: linked the right tweet.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On the bad news side it seems Ukrainians are forced to retreat from Lysychansk under encirclement risk.



Were they using Norden bombsights?


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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Were they using Norden bombsights?


Oops linked the wrong tweet. This one was already posted here

Sorry for the mistake.


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## Ovod (Jul 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On the bad news side it seems Ukrainians are forced to retreat from Lysychansk under encirclement risk.
> 
> 
> Edit: linked the right tweet.



Is it true that the Ukrainian army are gaining territory in the Kherson region at the same time? Dimlee?


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## Zipper730 (Jul 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Against the USA? But they happened already. Directly, as an attack on the Colonial Pipeline and indirectly, as in the case of NotPetya. Probably, they are happening right now.


I mean an all-out attack that would cripple the power-grid, the internet, and knock us into the dark ages.


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## Greg Boeser (Jul 2, 2022)

I think we are doing that just fine on our own.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I mean an all-out attack that would cripple the power-grid, the internet, and knock us into the dark ages.



From last year:

_President Joe Biden has warned that cyberattacks could escalate into a full-blown war as tensions with Russia and China mounted over a series of hacking incidents targeting US government agencies, companies, and infrastructure.

Biden said on Tuesday that cyber threats including ransomware attacks "increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption in the real world."

"If we end up in a war, a real shooting war with a major power, it's going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach," the president said in a speech at the Office for the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees 18 US intelligence agencies._









Biden warns cyber attacks could lead to a “real shooting war”


US president's remarks follow breaches that paralyzed critical services.




arstechnica.com





This seems to me a clear warning that, given sufficient scale, such an attack would be seen as _casus belli_.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 2, 2022)

_WASHINGTON, July 1 (Reuters) - The United States is sending Ukraine two NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems, four additional counter-artillery radars and up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition as part of its latest weapons packages for Ukraine, the Pentagon said on Friday.

The assistance package, worth about $820 million, was broadly announced by U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday in Madrid following a gathering of NATO leaders that was focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[...]

The Pentagon offered more details on Friday as it formalized the announcement, and said the latest round of security assistance also included additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

The counter artillery radars being sent are the Raytheon-Technologies (RTX.N) AN/TPQ-37 systems, a senior defense official told reporters. This is the first time these systems are being sent to Ukraine which have about triple the effective range of the previously sent AN/TPQ-36 systems._









U.S. sending Ukraine two surface-to-air missile systems -Pentagon


The United States is sending Ukraine two NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems, four additional counter-artillery radars and up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition as part of its latest weapons packages for Ukraine, the Pentagon said on Friday.




www.reuters.com





"Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition."

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## Glider (Jul 2, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I mean an all-out attack that would cripple the power-grid, the internet, and knock us into the dark ages.


From my understanding Russia has been doing as much as they can to use cyber warfare against the main countries involved in or supporting Ukraine. Including the front line Nato countries such as Poland and the UK with little success. There are a number of reasons for this including the ability of the different countries to learn from each others experiences. It should be noted that some of the smaller Nato countries such as Estonia have been under pretty constant pressure for some years and have been very effective in dealing with such attacks as has Ukraine.
I know that the UK have considerable experience in dealing with such attacks, and no doubt others have as well. The efforts of most western countries has been in dealing with the attacks and learning what they can. Whilst they have not tended to counter attack, if you have a good understanding of your opponents strengths and weaknesses, then you are in a good position to strike back if needed. 

It is true that Russia poses a serious threat, but the resources, skills and technical knowledge of the western countries and other allies across the world dwarf those of Russia, and Russia knows it. Russia also knows that large parts of its infrastructure are very old and vulnerable. The threat should and is taken seriously, but equally it shouldn't be exaggerated.

If you recall the shooting down of the airliner by the S300 missile. Using the resources of a number of Nato countries including Germany the West was able to build a very complete picture of what actually happened 

My favourite story in this area. The USA were having difficulty with a Russian cyber attack and asked the British if they could help. We gave them the ability to use the security camera's of the building from which the cyber ransomware attack was being run from. The USA literally could see the people in real time (and is rumoured hear them) while they were attacking the USA. 
I recognise that stories have a habit of growing in their size but it is true that at the time Russia was claiming that the cyberwar attacks wasn't them. Saying that it was other people from other countries, that they were criminals who attacked anybody. Biden contacted Russia, told them firmly that it had to stop or there would be consequences and it pretty much stopped overnight. Call it a coincidence if you wish but my suspicion is that there is more than a grain of truth in it.

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## GTX (Jul 2, 2022)

Dozens of Russian weapons tycoons have faced no Western sanctions as Russia continues to pummel Ukraine


An examination of companies, executives and investors underpinning Russia's defence sector shows a sizeable number of players have not been sanctioned by the West.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 2, 2022)

'I think the Russians are waiting for winter': Ukraine is bracing for what could be Putin's cruellest war tactic


Ukraine has now been under almost constant bombardment from Russia for more than five months, but analysts say the defining months could be just ahead.




www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 2, 2022)

Cyberattack threads are exagerated, thinking Russians can totally cripple the west, but they are unable to solve more mundane issues doesn't add-up.








New Russian banknote impossible to withdraw after Western firms leave


Russia's new 100 rouble banknotes designed to boost patriotism in the country are impossible to withdraw from ATMs after the Western companies that programmed them have left the country.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Denniss (Jul 2, 2022)

Big (T)rouble ....

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## buffnut453 (Jul 2, 2022)

The Saratov has been salvaged….with some interesting Russian narratives because of what they omit to say (ie that the ship was sunk due to an attack by Ukrainian forces):









Russia salvages landing ship hit by Ukraine missile fire


The Russian troop ship Saratov sank in a Black Sea port after a Ukrainian missile strike.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Cyberattack threads are exagerated,


The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO’s SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.









Threat looms of Russian attack on undersea cables to shut down West’s internet


US President Joe Biden warned this week that Russia is considering attacks on critical infrastructure. One of the scenarios that has been mooted since the start of the war in Ukraine is that Moscow will…




www.france24.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 2, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'I think the Russians are waiting for winter': Ukraine is bracing for what could be Putin's cruellest war tactic
> 
> 
> Ukraine has now been under almost constant bombardment from Russia for more than five months, but analysts say the defining months could be just ahead.
> ...


Both Ukraine and Russia have been using an hellacious amount of artillery. It seems both sides are using up the Soviet era stocks from their neighbors. I'm guessing Russia still has more. Belorussia has been mobilizing to either pin down Ukrainian forces or readying for an invasion of Ukraine. Russia however, has been dipping into Belorussian ammo stocks. That doesn't seem like a good idea. How willing would Belorussian troops be to go to Ukraine with less artillery? Is the Belorussian Army becoming less trustworthy? Will the time for a shake-up in Belorussia be about the same time as Ukraine launches a counter-offensive?


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Belorussia has been mobilizing to either pin down Ukrainian forces or readying for an invasion of Ukraine.


I don’t think the Belarusian people will tolerate Lukashenko sending their sons to die for Putin’s folly in Ukraine. They’re well aware of the ten thousand plus dead sons Russia’s families have suffered. If he does send troops into Ukraine I’d expect to see huge riots of Belorussian citizens supported by disaffected police and soldiers in Minsk, with Lukashenko ending up fleeing for Russia like Yanukovych or pressed against a wall like Ceaușescu.

My guess is Lukashenko will try to walk a fine line, like Franco in WW2, morally supporting his fascist brothers in Berlin and Rome, but looking to survive their use by dates.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 2, 2022)

Zelensky should make a public speech to the Belarusian people, telling them they don't need to fight and die for Russia and that this war is between Russia and Ukraine.
Conclude by saying "stay home, be safe".

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO’s SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As far as I know there is significant redundancy, so cutting a few cables won't make an impact, other than slowing things a bit due to increased traffic in the remaining cables.
Considering Russian capabilities to organize coordinated operations in the early days of the war, cutting all (or most of) the cables simultaneously enters the realm of science fiction. Although it will be a nice plot for a movie.

Besides, this is getting out of the cyber-attack scenario and becomes an actual physical attack of critical infrastructure. They may as well nuke western datacenters.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Besides, this is getting out of the cyber-attack scenario and becomes an actual physical attack of critical infrastructure. They may as well nuke western datacenters.



Right. It's one thing to try to hack a software system, but it's another thing altogether to physically attack another nation's property.

A hack that does physical damage to a nation's property (Stuxnet, anyone?) might be an act of war, but actually destroying a nation's property most certainly is one.

Of course, given the integration of hardware, software, and systems, I don't doubt that bad actors try to play inside the limits of nuance in order to maintain plausible deniability.

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## ThomasP (Jul 3, 2022)

Putin already requested that Lukashenko commit significant unit strength in Ukraine - 2-3 weeks weeks before the RF pulled out of Kiev. Lukashenko refused. US INTEL believes his refusal is partly due to concern over the potential effects of Ukraine taking the war into Belarus through air and missile strikes, and partly because he does not want to face the same kind of sanctions as those against Russia. The Lukashenko regime is unlikely to survive such an event and Lukashenko understands this. Also, Lukashenko knows that in the event of US/NATO taking active participation in the war (such as a no-fly zone or sending in combat units) Belarus will be a problem that needs to be neutralized one way or another. This is why Putin has offered to give nuclear weapons to Belarus. With nuclear weapons at his disposal, Putin's buttpuppet Lukachenko can make the same threats of retaliation against Ukraine and US/NATO as Putin has.

"Putin promises Belarus nuclear-capable missiles to counter 'aggressive' West"

Dimlee may have better information on the number of Belarus dissidents that have joined the Ukrainian International Legion, but the last INTEL I saw placed it somewhere around 1000. Unhappy people have been leaving Belarus (primarily going to Poland) and signing up for training by the Poles prior to traveling to Ukraine and joining the International Legion. Lukashenko recognizes this as a serious near-future problem.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 3, 2022)

Apparently France sent BONUS ammo with its CAESAR, 1 shell 2 kills

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> This is why Putin has offered to give nuclear weapons to Belarus. With nuclear weapons at his disposal, Putin's buttpuppet Lukachenko can make the same threats of retaliation against Ukraine and US/NATO as Putin has.


I can’t see Putin giving Lukachenko autonomous control over nuclear weapons. It’s only a matter of time before the government in Minsk changes, and there‘s no guarantee that the new Belarus regime doesn’t aim those missiles at Moscow. The more likely scenario, assuming a WMD deployment is at all feasible, is that Putin bases nuclear missiles in Belarus under strict Russian control.

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## Glider (Jul 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I can’t see Putin giving Lukachenko autonomous control over nuclear weapons. It’s only a matter of time before the government in Minsk changes, and there‘s no guarantee that the new Belarus regime doesn’t aim those missiles at Moscow. The more likely scenario, assuming a WMD deployment is at all feasible, is that Putin bases nuclear missiles in Belarus under strict Russian control.


If I remember correctly Putin offered to give Belarus nuclear *capable* weapons, which is very different from nuclear weapons. There are many weapon systems which are nuclear capable, from a submarine torpedo tube, to a large artillery gun, to an ICBM. 
Putin I am sure would never give Belarus a true nuclear weapon if only because that would give them a hold over him should the situation change.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 3, 2022)

Can Ukraine Win?


A Ukrainian soldier shows off a HIMARS multiple rocket launcher - part of the package of US military aid (Photo by Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post via Getty Images) ‘Despise the enemy strategically, but respect him tactically’ - Mao Zedong




samf.substack.com





_The commitments have now been made to the point where a Ukrainian defeat will look like a NATO defeat. _

I guess that is good for Ukraine as long as they have the will to fight.

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## Dimlee (Jul 3, 2022)

"I have never seen a Su-34 looking like this but..."

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## Dimlee (Jul 3, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Dimlee may have better information on the number of Belarus dissidents that have joined the Ukrainian International Legion, but the last INTEL I saw placed it somewhere around 1000.


Numbers are confidential but 1000 looks realistic.We can assume that this number will grow.

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## Dimlee (Jul 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO’s SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And in the coastal areas it can be done without Navy involvement.





Police drop case of missing cable | Norway's News in English — www.newsinenglish.no







www.newsinenglish.no

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## GTX (Jul 3, 2022)

Russian forces 'liberate' east Ukrainian city of Lysychansk


Russia says its forces and allies have taken control of Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region, after capturing the final Ukrainian holdout of Lysychansk.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 3, 2022)

Russians press assault on eastern Ukraine, Belarus accuses Kyiv of air strikes


Russian forces are pounding the city of Lysychansk and its surroundings in an all-out attempt to seize the last stronghold of resistance in eastern Ukraine's Luhansk province, the regional governor says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 3, 2022)

'A war crime': Prime Minister disturbed by what he sees on visit to Ukraine


Anthony Albanese, who was invited to Ukraine by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, surveys "devastating" destruction in Irpin, describing what he sees as "a war crime".




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 3, 2022)

_KYIV, July 3 (Reuters) - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday acknowledged Kyiv's forces had withdrawn from Lysychansk in the eastern Donbas region after a grinding Russian assault, but vowed to regain control over the area with the help of long-range Western weapons.

Russia said its capture of the city of Lysychansk less than a week after taking neighbouring Sievierdonetsk gave it full control of the eastern Luhansk region - a political win that meets a key Kremlin war goal. The battlefield focus now shifts to the neighbouring Donetsk region, where Kyiv still controls swathes of territory._









Zelenskiy vows to regain Lysychansk after Ukrainian withdrawal


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday acknowledged Kyiv's forces had withdrawn from Lysychansk in the eastern Donbas region after a grinding Russian assault, but vowed to regain control over the area with the help of long-range Western weapons.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 3, 2022)

_KYIV, July 3 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces hit a Russian military logistics base with over 30 strikes in the Russian-occupied southern city of Melitopol on Sunday, the city's exiled mayor said. A Russian-installed official confirmed that strikes had hit the city.

"At 3 o'clock (0000 GMT) and 5 o'clock (0200 GMT), there were over 30 strikes on a single military base," Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, who is currently on Ukraine-controlled territory, said on Telegram.


The military aerial logistics base has been "taken out of action" and other resistance activity caused a Russian armoured train carrying ammunition to derail on Saturday near Melitopol, Fedorov said.

The base was occupied on the second day of Russia's invasion in February and was being used to store ammunition for heavy Russian weapons, he later said on television.

"They stored and handled the logistics of ammunition for heavy weapons at this base," he said.

"At present the situation has not calmed down (and) everything is still detonating," he added.

[...]

RIA cited local Russian-appointed official Vladimir Rogov as saying that around 16-18 Ukrainian MLRS rockets had hit Melitopol in two strikes at 0300 and 0445 Moscow time (1200 GMT and 0145 GMT)._









Ukraine hits Russian military base in occupied Melitopol, exiled mayor says


Ukrainian forces hit a Russian military logistics base with over 30 strikes in the Russian-occupied southern city of Melitopol on Sunday, the city's exiled mayor said. A Russian-installed official confirmed that strikes had hit the city.




www.reuters.com





Gratifying seeing them put to such good and quick use.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> There are many weapon systems which are nuclear capable, from a submarine torpedo tube, to a large artillery gun, to an ICBM.


And a suitcase. Anything sufficiently large is a potential nuclear weapon delivery system.









Suitcase nuclear device - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## nuuumannn (Jul 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> As far as I know there is significant redundancy, so cutting a few cables won't make an impact, other than slowing things a bit due to increased traffic in the remaining cables.



Agree, Roger. The other problem is finding the cables, it's not like they are signposted and out at sea in international waters the majority lie deeper than the deepest military submarines can reach. Primarily the cables in shallower waters are within countries' territorial waters, so sneaking submarines and ships into a sovereign nation's waters is going to raise alarm. These cables do require regular maintenance, but it's done from ships on the surface, rather than submarines.

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## ThomasP (Jul 4, 2022)

A couple bits of info re Putin giving nuclear weapons to Belarus.

1. Belarus, before the disintegration of the USSR, possessed nuclear weapons. The only reason they did not retain the weapons is due to the efforts by Russia, the US, and other nations to limit the proliferation of possible problems.

Ukraine also possessed nuclear weapons at the time of the fall of the USSR. They did not at first give the weapons to Russia, but instead used them as a bargaining chip to gain promises of support and security/protection in the future.

Most of this is addressed by the Alma Ata Agreement/Protocols and follow-on treaties already mentioned upthread.

2. Putin may end up needing the Belarus armed forces to win (or at least not lose) a conventional war with Ukraine, thereby providing a victory (or at least avoiding a loss) usable for political purposes. To say that he would never give nuclear weapons to Belarus assumes that Putin sees things in the same light as you do (  I suspect that this is not the case). If he thinks that giving nuclear weapons to Belarus will allow him to maintain power/prevent the fall of the current norm of the RF government and/or prevent the RF from descending into chaos, then he will do so.

3. re actual nuclear weapons vs nuclear capable weapons. It is (near?) impossible to prevent US/NATO/Ukraine from knowing if Belarus actually gets nuclear warheads/weapons. Without actual nuclear warheads there would be no reason for US/NATO/Ukraine not to cause as much trouble for Lukashenko as possible. And for Lukashenko to try to bluff the US/NATO into not shredding his armed forces, if US/NATO takes an active stance toward Belarus, would be pointless.

4. Hopefully, Lukashenko knows the above (he seems to), and knows that his only hope is to successfully walk a fine line between the RF and US/NATO/Ukraine by not getting so involved that his fate and the fate of Belarus are tied to the outcome of the war.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 4, 2022)

On the otherhand, top Belarusian commanders refused to deploy troops about a month ago, there is clear dissention in the ranks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 4, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> 2. Putin may end up needing the Belarus armed forces to win (or at least not lose) a conventional war with Ukraine, thereby providing a victory (or at least avoiding a loss) usable for political purposes. To say that he would never give nuclear weapons to Belarus assumes that Putin sees things in the same light as you do ) I suspect that this is not the case). If he thinks that giving nuclear weapons to Belarus will allow him to maintain power/prevent the fall of the current norm of the RF government and/or prevent the RF from descending into chaos, then he will do so.



I think it more likely that he will _station_ mobile nukes there, under direct Russian control and manning, rather than giving Lukashenko the keys to the car. First, it underlines the superior/subordinate relationship between Moscow and Minsk. Second, if one were to be struck, Putin could claim that it is a direct attack on Russian forces and perhaps be on firmer legalistic footing, though I doubt that's a big factor. Thirdly, by keeping them under direct Russian control, he can redeploy them at his whim.

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## Dimlee (Jul 4, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Agree, Roger. The other problem is finding the cables, it's not like they are signposted and out at sea in international waters the majority lie deeper than the deepest military submarines can reach. Primarily the cables in shallower waters are within countries' territorial waters, so sneaking submarines and ships into a sovereign nation's waters is going to raise alarm. These cables do require regular maintenance, but it's done from ships on the surface, rather than submarines.


Well, in coastal waters cables are mapped. Otherwise they can be damaged by anchors, etc. 
Fishing vessel can be used as a simple tool for the cables destruction, note the incident in Norway mentioned earlier.
Soviet fishing vessels were used extensively for the spying and for the search of anything interesting on the sea bottom near the foreign bases and exercises areas.I am sure that tradition lives on. Actually, Russian intelligence have more opportunities now. In the USSR those vessels were under the Soviet flag and carried visible identifications on the funnels.. Today, Russian operators can use any flag of convenience. That innocently looking trawler registered in Barbados can be doing something more than fishing while sailng in the NATO country waters...

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## Dimlee (Jul 4, 2022)

Another ammo depot.
Distance from the frontline is about 75 km.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Another ammo depot.
> Distance from the frontline is about 75 km.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 4, 2022)

So far in this war Ukraine has lost entire Luhansk oblast (region), including the cities of Severodonetsk and now Lysychansk, and lost most of the Donetsk oblast, including the city of Mariupol. I expect once the remainder of the Donetsk oblast is taken, with all of the Donbas (shown below) then in Russian hands that Putin will declare victory and put his forces on the defensive. I would not be surprised if a "referendum" is then quickly held and the Donbas then annexed into Russia.







Does Ukraine stand any chance of retaking these two oblasts and the Donbas? I just don't see them having the ability to fight an sustained offensive to retake the Donbas. I hope I'm wrong.









Can Ukraine Win?


A Ukrainian soldier shows off a HIMARS multiple rocket launcher - part of the package of US military aid (Photo by Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post via Getty Images) ‘Despise the enemy strategically, but respect him tactically’ - Mao Zedong




samf.substack.com


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 4, 2022)

What if we get Iran back in the oil line? Yes i know. But isnt this a perfect time to trade?
Why not make a deal of the century. Quite the nuke stuff sell oil. If there is a time to trade equally, it will be now. And i mean trade, not bully each other around.

There must be a deal worth making. Hope they will find it. Depending on the rest of the oil producers wast a good plan after all.

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## GTX (Jul 4, 2022)

More Australian aid to Ukraine:



https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/media-releases/australia-increases-support-ukraine

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## swampyankee (Jul 4, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> What if we get Iran back in the oil line? Yes i know. But isnt this a perfect time to trade?
> Why not make a deal of the century. Quite the nuke stuff sell oil. If there is a time to trade equally, it will be now. And i mean trade, not bully each other around.
> 
> There must be a deal worth making. Hope they will find it. Depending on the rest of the oil producers wast a good plan after all.



It would be useful to split Iran from Russia, and if a new nuclear deal could be arranged, that would be wonderful. The problem is that any deal made by this US administration would likely be abrogated if a different party wins in 2024. Rather obviously, this would make the US seem to be unreliable and untrustworthy.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> More Australian aid to Ukraine:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wish Canada would act with Australia’s alacrity. General Dynamics Canada produces the LAV 6, but so far we’ve sent none to Ukraine.


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 4, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> It would be useful to split Iran from Russia, and if a new nuclear deal could be arranged, that would be wonderful. The problem is that any deal made by this US administration would likely be abrogated if a different party wins in 2024. Rather obviously, this would make the US seem to be unreliable and untrustworthy.


True. But i can see even such benifits for all involved. On all fronts of thinking.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 4, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> True. But i can see even such benifits for all involved. On all fronts of thinking.


And some of those 1,500 T-72 tanks the Iranians have would do nicely under Ukrainian colours.


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## fubar57 (Jul 4, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-front-lines-cbc-1.6509203

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 4, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> It would be useful to split Iran from Russia, and if a new nuclear deal could be arranged, that would be wonderful. The problem is that any deal made by this US administration would likely be abrogated if a different party wins in 2024. Rather obviously, this would make the US seem to be unreliable and untrustworthy.



And the Iranians already see us that way after the previous administration pulled out of JCPOA. While oil money would be an incentive, I doubt it would be enough.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 5, 2022)

I read a brief article that said the Czech Air Force will be flying protective missions for Slovakia. This is due to a delay in Slovakia receiving new aircraft (F-16s?. I forgot). Mention was made of Slovakia's MiG-29s going to Ukraine. Does anyone any further information on this? 
If the MiGs are going to Ukraine, will they be complete aircraft or "parts" in kit form? If Ukraine is getting these planes in kit form, what color should they paint them?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read a brief article that said the Czech Air Force will be flying protective missions for Slovakia. This is due to a delay in Slovakia receiving new aircraft (F-16s?. I forgot). Mention was made of Slovakia's MiG-29s going to Ukraine. Does anyone any further information on this?
> If the MiGs are going to Ukraine, will they be complete aircraft or "parts" in kit form? If Ukraine is getting these planes in kit form, what color should they paint them?



The fact that we have one nation's air force flying cover for another country, each having split apart 30 years ago, says a lot about how Putin's misadventure has pulled NATO together. His threat is uniting nations even as he'd aimed to divide the alliance.

How's that working out for you?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 5, 2022)

_
KYIV, July 5 (Reuters) - Russian forces struck targets across Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region on Tuesday to prepare the path for an expected armoured thrust to try to take more territory as the five-month-old war entered a new phase.

The strikes, reported by the region's local governor and the Russian military, followed Moscow's capture of the Ukrainian city of Lysychansk on Sunday, a move that handed it total control of the Luhansk region, one of its main war aims.


Taking full control of Donetsk, the other region in Donbas, the industrialised eastern part of Ukraine that has become the stage of the biggest battle in Europe in generations, is another goal of what Moscow calls its "special military operation."

Ukrainian forces which retreated from Lysychansk at the weekend took up new defensive lines in Donetsk on Tuesday, according to Serhiy Gaidai, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk._









Russia hammers Ukraine's Donetsk region after seizing Luhansk


Russian forces struck targets across Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region on Tuesday, a day after President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the neighbouring province of Luhansk after months of gruelling attritional warfare in which both sides lost many men.




www.reuters.com





On the radio here yesterday I heard a retired USMC general commenting that the Russians must be straining the endurance of their men as well as their logistics. I sure hope he's right. I hope the recent tranches of weapons kill enough Russians to render this offensive neutered.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I read a brief article that said the Czech Air Force will be flying protective missions for Slovakia. This is due to a delay in Slovakia receiving new aircraft (F-16s?. I forgot). Mention was made of Slovakia's MiG-29s going to Ukraine. Does anyone any further information on this?
> If the MiGs are going to Ukraine, will they be complete aircraft or "parts" in kit form? If Ukraine is getting these planes in kit form, what color should they paint them?


Well, FWIW, the Russians agree with you.









EU country cleared to donate MiG-29s to Ukraine


Slovakia can donate its Soviet-era MiG-29 warplanes to Ukraine after the Czech Republic agreed to cover its air defense needs




www.rt.com

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## Crimea_River (Jul 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wish Canada would act with Australia’s alacrity. General Dynamics Canada produces the LAV 6, but so far we’ve sent none to Ukraine.


Canada announced at the NATO summit 39 brand new LAVs bound for Ukraine. See post 8302

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## Crimea_River (Jul 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The fact that we have one nation's air force flying cover for another country, each having split apart 30 years ago, says a lot about how Putin's misadventure has pulled NATO together. His threat is uniting nations even as he'd aimed to divide the alliance.
> 
> How's that working out for you?


Nothing unites people more than a common enemy.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 5, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Canada announced at the NATO summit 39 brand new LAVs bound for Ukraine. See post 8302


Good, thanks. I wish we'd get moving though. At this rate the LAVs won't arrive in Poland until end of July by air or late August by sea, followed by some training, meaning they won't be deployed to the front in Ukraine until late September or early October. We should have sent existing CAF LAVs in April with plans to replenish CAF stocks from new production this summer.

It would be good if Canada could send some new production LAV-700 with the CMI-3105 weapon system. But I assume we're sending the usual Bushmaster armed variants.









Land Systems Canada | LAV 700

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## SaparotRob (Jul 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, FWIW, the Russians agree with you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How about that. What I first read didn’t have “military operation” in it. That, I would have remembered. RT might have been the source of the story, though. Wasn’t RT an information source for Mr. Sprey’s condemnation of the F-35?


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 5, 2022)

That looks like an upgraded Puma!


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 5, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> That looks like an upgraded Puma!


Puma has tracks.






Closer is the Italian B1 Centauro.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Wasn’t RT an information source for Mr. Sprey’s condemnation of the F-35?


RT (Russian Times) is a great source for bullshit, so it's possible.


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## GTX (Jul 5, 2022)

Ukraine's drones are becoming increasingly ineffective as Russia ramps up its electronic warfare and air defenses


Experts told Insider how Russia now could have the upper hand over Ukraine in the drone war over Donbas.




www.businessinsider.com

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## buffnut453 (Jul 5, 2022)

Nothing I say can add to this account:









The sole survivor of a Russian shooting - he lived by playing dead


The extraordinary story of the sole survivor from a group of Ukrainians captured by Russian soldiers.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Nothing I say can add to this account:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You can never see some of the scars ... except sometimes in the eyes.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Puma has tracks.
> 
> 
> 
> Closer is the Italian B1 Centauro.


WW2 German Puma

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 5, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> WW2 German Puma
> 
> View attachment 676355


Ah, yes I agree.


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## Denniss (Jul 6, 2022)

Not a Puma, an Sd.Kfz. 234/2. Puma was an imagination of some fancy postwar authors.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Not a Puma, an Sd.Kfz. 234/2. Puma was an imagination of some fancy postwar authors.


Like to see some source for that, as the PzKfw 234's turret was originally intended for the VK16.02 *Leopard *- which was yet another name in the feline series.


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 6, 2022)

Me too.


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## WARSPITER (Jul 6, 2022)

The Puma name is confusing from a few angles. Most refer to the 234/2 as the Puma. This was the 50mm armed turreted version.
german units used the Puma term for most 8 wheels types from the 231 on.

A captured driver (Dec 1944) referred to himself when questioned as a 'Puma' driver.

The different 234's which were the only German AFV to have an air cooled diesel were;
234/1 - open top turret 20mm gun
234/2 - complete turret 50mm gun
234/3 - open top with short 75mm gun
234/4 - open top with pak40 75mm gun.

The German troop referred to them according to the armament followed by Puma.
The 20mm version was the 2cm Puma. The short 75mm version was the Stummel Puma and so on.

The 50mm full turret version was the best known and the name seems to have been attached to only the /2 version, probably
due the coolness factor - especially for modellers. After all, as everyone knows, chicks dig the cool names.

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## Denniss (Jul 6, 2022)

that's utter nonsense. No official document ever used Puma or referred to such a nickname. Various works by Tom Jentz/Hilary Doyle make clear statements about that.
And the only vehicle named as Puma by these fancy postwar authors was the /2.
The /2 was likely best known because it was the first of the series and having a sleek look with the long turreted gun


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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 6, 2022)

Pavel Luzin
Specialist in international relations, expert on the Russian Armed Forces. Political scientist (PhD).
On why Russia's military capabilities have suffered irreparable losses after four months of war









One-way ticket – Riddle Russia


According to figures that can be confirmed, after four months of the war against Ukraine Russia has used up or lost armaments in amounts unheard of in its recent history. According only to open sources backed by photographs, Russia has lost over 2,000 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles...




ridl.io

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## WARSPITER (Jul 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> that's utter nonsense. No official document ever used Puma or referred to such a nickname. Various works by Tom Jentz/Hilary Doyle make clear statements about that.
> And the only vehicle named as Puma by these fancy postwar authors was the /2.
> The /2 was likely best known because it was the first of the series and having a sleek look with the long turreted gun


Well, my info comes from the interviews done with the units who used the 234 types and that is what they called them so I can only go
with information direct from the horses mouth. One of the Germans interviewed directly referred to himself as a 'Puma' driver.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 6, 2022)

2 threads on why HIMARS and GMLRS have made logistics relevant again.
Hope they are right.








Thread by @noclador on Thread Reader App


@noclador: The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk. What does this mean for russian logistics? A thread 🧵: Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations i...…




threadreaderapp.com












Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App


@TrentTelenko: I haven't talked truck logistics in a while. This thread 🧵will revisit truck logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War. 1. What we thought we knew. 2. The logistical truth on the ground. 3. And how Ukraine...…




threadreaderapp.com

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## Dimlee (Jul 6, 2022)

Russian ISIS tik tok warriors from Chechnya:
"until Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin stops us, we'll go up to Berlin"

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## swampyankee (Jul 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Russian ISIS tik tok warriors from Chechnya:
> "until Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin stops us, we'll go up to Berlin"



It's likely the only way they'll get to Berlin is a train stop on their way to the ICCJ in the Hague

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Russian ISIS tik tok warriors from Chechnya:


Why do the Chechens follow Putin? Didn't Russia invade their country and kill 100,000 civilians? Why the love?

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## WARSPITER (Jul 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why do the Chechens follow Putin? Didn't Russia invade their country and kill 100,000 civilians? Why the love?


Some are probably Kadyvorites who fight for Russia in Chechnya and were originally fighting against Russia.

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## Dimlee (Jul 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why do the Chechens follow Putin? Didn't Russia invade their country and kill 100,000 civilians? Why the love?


_Divide et impera._
Kremlin didn't manage to subjugate the Chechnya Republic by military force in the 1990s.
So another strategy was chosen. The leader was assassinated and collaborators were found among some prominent figures.
Local family clans clashed against each other weakening the resistance, while Kremlin consolidated its forces and awashed the traitors with money and privileges...

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## SaparotRob (Jul 6, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Some are probably Kadyvorites who fight for Russia in Chechnya and were originally fighting against Russia.


Could you add a little more to that? 
I do like the idea of making these guys “cadaver-ites” though.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _Divide et impera._
> Kremlin didn't manage to subjugate the Chechnya Republic by military force in the 1990s.
> So another strategy was chosen. The leader was assassinated and collaborators were found among some prominent figures.
> Local family clans clashed against each other weakening the resistance, while Kremlin consolidated its forces and awashed the traitors with money and privileges...



Never underestimate the power of greed...either for money or power (or both).

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## Dimlee (Jul 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could you add a little more to that?
> I do like the idea of making these guys “cadaver-ites” though.


"Kadyrovtsy". Soldiers of Ramzan Kadyrov.








Kadyrovites - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




In this war, they are known for brutality and "commercial skills" (shipping out stolen expensive cars, machinery, harvest, etc.). Also for Tik Tok videos.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _Divide et impera._
> Kremlin didn't manage to subjugate the Chechnya Republic by military force in the 1990s.
> So another strategy was chosen. The leader was assassinated and collaborators were found among some prominent figures.
> Local family clans clashed against each other weakening the resistance, while Kremlin consolidated its forces and awashed the traitors with money and privileges...



Russia is really, REALLY good at that sort of thing. We see evidence of it all the time in Western countries.

A few years ago, there was a pro-Russian online publication called "Russia Insider." It was run by an American who, according to a recent New York Times article, later joined the white nationalist movement, launched an anti-Semitic manifesto, and joined the storming of the Capitol on 6 Jan 2021. He then fled to Russia, where he now reinforces Russian propaganda about the urgent need to de-Nazify Ukraine.

According to the head of the outgoing Bulgarian prime minister's office, Lena Borislavova, the Russian government has been paying prominent Bulgarian public figures, including journalists, politicians, and public intellectuals, to post pro-Russian messages as if they were domestic opinion. Apparently, these individuals were being paid Euros 2,000 per month.

_Die Zeit_ had a similar article about pro-Russian influencers in Germany. Some of these influencers claim to work for "donations" but they seem very well funded, so much so that they can travel around Europe and schmooze/network with the great and the good.

Essentially, Russia is using Western privileges of free speech against us to cloud the information environment. Unfortunately, many ill-informed individuals get suckered into believing the misinformation that these influencers spout. 

As always....follow the money!

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## GTX (Jul 6, 2022)

Ukraine has already received 270 T-72 tanks from Poland and Czech Republic | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army


Ukrainian armed forces have received a total of 270 T-72 MBT (Main Battle Tank) variants from Poland and the Czech Republic including T-72M1 and T-72M1R, most of them received additional Kontakt-1 ERA (Explosive Reactive Armor).




www.armyrecognition.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russia is really, REALLY good at that sort of thing. We see evidence of it all the time in Western countries.


Britain managed to rule its empire with few boots on the ground through a similar divide and conquer strategy. For example, in 1857 the strength of the army in India was 311,400 of whom 265,900 were Indians. Less than 46 thousand British soldiers to rule over more than a hundred million Indians, presumably with their consent. I assume that was Putin's plan for Ukraine - have the Ukrainians persecute their own people on his behalf in exchange for wealth, (limited) power and prestige.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine has already received 270 T-72 tanks from Poland and Czech Republic | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army
> 
> 
> Ukrainian armed forces have received a total of 270 T-72 MBT (Main Battle Tank) variants from Poland and the Czech Republic including T-72M1 and T-72M1R, most of them received additional Kontakt-1 ERA (Explosive Reactive Armor).
> ...


Nice work. Now, what about those Polish MiG-29s? Surely by now any reticence about giving those to Ukraine has evaporated?

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## nuuumannn (Jul 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Well, in coastal waters cables are mapped. Otherwise they can be damaged by anchors, etc.



...which raises suspicion within sovereign waters, which I addressed in my original post...

The point is that it's easier said than done. It has been done though, but more often than not by accident!









Cut Undersea Cable Plunges Yemen Into Days-Long Internet Outage


The fragility of global internet infrastructure has left the entire Red Sea region struggling to connect.




www.wired.com

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## Denniss (Jul 6, 2022)

In Germany I've read a report/claim of russians already destroying two HIMARS systems. Is that their common propaganda or is something known about it?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> In Germany I've read a report/claim of russians already destroying two HIMARS systems. Is that their common propaganda or is something known about it?



I'd read that one was reportedly destroyed, but haven't seen confirmation. I don't doubt that they're regarded as high-value targets and that we'll be reading of their losses soon enough.


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## Glider (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice work. Now, what about those Polish MiG-29s? Surely by now any reticence about giving those to Ukraine has evaporated?


I am reading that the British and German air forces are in the process of retiring their tranch 1 Typhoons. I am confident that the Ukraine would welcome these with open arms and whilst they are not as capable as the tranch 2 and 3 aircraft, I would back them against any Mig 29 or Su30. 
I think the total is about 70 aircraft which would make quite a difference

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## GrauGeist (Jul 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd read that one was reportedly destroyed, but haven't seen confirmation. I don't doubt that they're regarded as high-value targets and that we'll be reading of their losses soon enough.


However, how much hell did that HIMARS wreak on the Orcs during it's operation - that is the value-packed question.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd read that one was reportedly destroyed, but haven't seen confirmation. I don't doubt that they're regarded as high-value targets and that we'll be reading of their losses soon enough.


Russia claims 2, Ukraine denies. 🤷‍♂️

_Ukraine's general staff rejected Russia's account later on Wednesday. In a post on Twitter, it said the claims were "fake" and that it was using the US-supplied HIMARS to inflict "devastating blows" on Russian forces._









Russia claims advanced US rocket launchers destroyed in Ukraine


Russia claims it also destroyed two ammunition depots storing rockets for the HIMARS near a village south of Kramatorsk.




www.aljazeera.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 7, 2022)

Glider said:


> I am reading that the British and German air forces are in the process of retiring their tranch 1 Typhoons. I am confident that the Ukraine would welcome these with open arms and whilst they are not as capable as the tranch 2 and 3 aircraft, I would back them against any Mig 29 or Su30.
> I think the total is about 70 aircraft which would make quite a difference


"in the process of retiring" may be a lot of time, even several years









Sweden donates Gripen fighters to Ukraine, but not until 2027


Stockholm could agree to Prague providing 14 JAS 39 fighters to Kyiv free of charge [12 units of the single-seat JAS 39C and two units of the two-seat JAS 39D].




bulgarianmilitary.com





Specially if you have to cover your neighbor









BREAKING: Slovakia donates its MiG-29 Fulcrum to Ukraine


Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger announced today that he will donate 12 MiG-29 fighters and 30 T-72 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://twitter.c




www.aviacionline.com

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice work. Now, what about those Polish MiG-29s? Surely by now any reticence about giving those to Ukraine has evaporated?


well - what Polish MiGs? - what you think how it happen that UAF is still flying with this type????

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## ThomasP (Jul 7, 2022)

Some info re the Mig-29s held by the US.

In October 1997 the US bought 21x Mig-29 airframes (most were at the time the latest Block 9-13) from Moldova. apparently, most of the airframes were not in flyable condition at the time of the sale. Subsequently, the US kept 2x of the airframes in service for training purposes - kept in service partly by cannibalizing the other airframes.

These airframes are the source of the spare parts acquired in April by Ukraine.

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## ThomasP (Jul 7, 2022)

re planning for US/NATO supplying replacements for the Ukrainian Air Force Mig-29, Su-27, etc

Talks are ongoing. For a couple of interesting aspects, from public sources:

"Bond between Americans and Ukrainian forces they trained remains strong as war grinds on"

and

"‘Grey Wolf Team’: How a USAF Task Force Works To Keep Ukraine’s Pilots Fighting"

Note: The first joint exercise between the Ukraine Air Force and USAF/Air National Guard (and Poland) took place in 2011. Since 2014 there has been a regular exchange of personnel for liaison and training purposes.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> what you think how it happen that UAF is still flying with this type????


I’m no grammarian, but what?


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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m no grammarian, but what?


sorry my english is far from perfection - in short words all MiG29 left in Poland are only this ones owned by museums and i think this information should terminate further comments in this topic

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## Dimlee (Jul 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russia claims 2, Ukraine denies. 🤷‍♂️
> 
> _Ukraine's general staff rejected Russia's account later on Wednesday. In a post on Twitter, it said the claims were "fake" and that it was using the US-supplied HIMARS to inflict "devastating blows" on Russian forces._
> 
> ...


I'd ignore any Kremlin's claims until there is a clear video.
By they way, I like those statements about "foreign mercenaries" .Their missile operators can not distinguish between the warehouse and the shopping mall but they "sense" the nationality...

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i think this information should terminate further comments in this topic


Because a guy on internet said so??

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I'd ignore any Kremlin's claims until there is a clear video.


I agree. I doubt the Ukrainians and their well informed US/NATO advisors would consolidate their advanced weaponry into known locations.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> sorry my english is far from perfection - in short words all MiG29 left in Poland are only this ones owned by museums...


So, you’re suggesting the MiG-29s Poland had intended to give to Ukraine in March 2022 have since been transferred to the UAF? If so, that’s good, and I don’t understand the need for worry about upsetting Russia Polish relations. Providing thirty year old, old tech fighters is not a big issue when NATO is providing MRLS that can put a missile through a General’s kitchen window at 80 km.

The Slovaks don't seem to be so shy about donating their MiG-29s.









BREAKING: Slovakia donates its MiG-29 Fulcrum to Ukraine


Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger announced today that he will donate 12 MiG-29 fighters and 30 T-72 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://twitter.c




www.aviacionline.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, how much hell did that HIMARS wreak on the Orcs during it's operation - that is the value-packed question.



Right. We all understand that losses in wartime happen. It's what you do with it before then that matters.

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Because a guy on internet said so??


No - because my friends from Minsk Mazowiecki and Malbork airbases have no airplanes to clock flying hours since 5 weeks.... except this ones who has been transferred to F-16 equipped bases.

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So, you’re suggesting the MiG-29s Poland had intended to give to Ukraine in March 2022 have since been transferred to the UAF? If so, that’s good, and I don’t understand the need for worry about upsetting Russia Polish relations. Providing thirty year old, old tech fighters is not a big issue when NATO is providing MRLS that can put a missile through a General’s kitchen window at 80 km.
> 
> The Slovaks don't seem to be so shy about donating their MiG-29s.
> 
> ...


yep - this is pretty much what i'm suggesting

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 7, 2022)

I still feel that UAF's colour scheme is one of the best. Does any other country incorporate their national symbol into the camo?

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I still feel that UAF's colour scheme is one of the best. Does any other country incorporate their national symbol into the camo?
> 
> View attachment 676612


SLOVAKIA

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

POLAND

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I still feel that UAF's colour scheme is one of the best. Does any other country incorporate their national symbol into the camo?
> 
> View attachment 676612



Couldn't they get any finer resolution out of their printer?! That looks like it was rendered by an Atari 800.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Couldn't they get any finer resolution out of their printer?! That looks like it was rendered by an Atari 800.


🤣

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> No - because my friends from Minsk Mazowiecki and Malbork airbases have no airplanes to clock flying hours since 5 weeks.... except this ones who has been transferred to F-16 equipped bases.


Still hear say.


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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

- NOT REALLY RELATED TO THE TOPIC BUT NICE SHOW ANYWAY

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Couldn't they get any finer resolution out of their printer?! That looks like it was rendered by an Atari 800.


Indeed. IMO, Ukraine would be better off painting their MiGs in bright high-visibility schemes to prevent friendly fire. SAM and AAM seekers don't care what colour you are, so camo is less necessary. Apparently this high viz is now seeing combat.









Ukraine Paints Refurbished Frontline MiG-29 In High-Visibility Scheme


The flamboyantly painted MiG-29 Fulcrum recently returned to service, likely aided by new spares from Ukraine's NATO supporters.




www.thedrive.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 7, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> - NOT REALLY RELATED TO THE TOPIC BUT NICE SHOW ANYWAY



I am reminded of the movie _Final Countdown_ for some reason.

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I am reminded of the movie _Final Countdown_ for some reason.


yes -somehow-

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## Glider (Jul 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> "in the process of retiring" may be a lot of time, even several years
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A fair point. As far as the RAF is concerned the Tranche 1 aircraft are not front line issue and are mainly used as the opposition in training exercises, with a final withdrawal from use of 2025. So if push came to shove I think they could be spared

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## Dimlee (Jul 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I agree. I doubt the Ukrainians and their well informed US/NATO advisors would consolidate their advanced weaponry into known locations.


What is cool about HIMARS is that those 6 x 227mm pods can be distributed for temporary storage in different places, right on the ground. According to some videos, they are hidden in bushes and among the trees. The launcher uses the pod, leaves the place, drops it empty somewhere, picks up another one and proceeds to another location for the next launch. No ammo dump is required, in summer weather at least.

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## GTX (Jul 7, 2022)

Glider said:


> I am reading that the British and German air forces are in the process of retiring their tranch 1 Typhoons. I am confident that the Ukraine would welcome these with open arms and whilst they are not as capable as the tranch 2 and 3 aircraft, I would back them against any Mig 29 or Su30.
> I think the total is about 70 aircraft which would make quite a difference


That would be something but I suspect it will have to wait. Until then, how about this:

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## GTX (Jul 7, 2022)

'Listen to me carefully': French documentary details Macron and Putin's tense chat in lead-up to Ukraine invasion


During the nine-minute phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin — speaking from the gym — says the Ukrainian government was not democratically elected.




www.abc.net.au

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## J_P_C (Jul 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> That would be something but I suspect it will have to wait. Until then, how about this:
> 
> View attachment 676650


well - looks good with two exceptions - bird pictured just after the canopy it is rook - GRACH - symbol used for marking Su-25 (nickname rook), on the tail just at the front of trident sign you have logo of the Sukhoi OKB  - except of this looks as it should looks like

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> What is cool about HIMARS is that those 6 x 227mm pods can be distributed for temporary storage in different places, right on the ground. According to some videos, they are hidden in bushes and among the trees. The launcher uses the pod, leaves the place, drops it empty somewhere, picks up another one and proceeds to another location for the next launch. No ammo dump is required, in summer weather at least.


like the The Nebelwerfers did

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 8, 2022)

Russian advanced avionics
Note: pic not from current conflict

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 8, 2022)



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## J_P_C (Jul 8, 2022)

and today at Kremlin.....

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## SaparotRob (Jul 8, 2022)

Is anyone having technical problems with this thread? I've tried about a dozen times but the forum locks up on me each time I click on to page 423, post 8454. If I go to any other thread there's no problem. I'm posting this to see if I can get past it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is anyone having technical problems with this thread? I've tried about a dozen times but the forum locks up on me each time I click on to page 423, post 8454. If I go to any other thread there's no problem. I'm posting this to see if I can get past it.



No issues here.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 8, 2022)

I seem to be past the problem. Putler really doesn't want me to see that tweet.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Time for some frogmen and limpet mines I’d say. The Ukrainian navy must have a scuba section, but I don’t see it Ukrainian Navy - Wikipedia. They did train with the SEALS, US Navy SEALs are training with Ukrainian special operations forces
> 
> What’s available for mines?
> 
> ...


Back to my earlier post. UAF has underwater "vehicles". Presumably any Russian vessel at port could be struck.









Ukrainian Navy Special Forces Spearhead Daring Snake Island Mission - Naval News


Snake Island is a strategic rock in the northern Black Sea. Russia captured it in the opening hours of the Ukraine Invasion, but recently retreated after sustained Ukrainian attack. Now the Ukrainian flag is flying there. And the story of how it got there is emerging.




www.navalnews.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 8, 2022)

Hey Admiral; you having trouble with post #8454 too? On my iPhone or my iMac, it locks up on that post. 
I had to post on the previous page to get around it.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 8, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> What if we get Iran back in the oil line? Yes i know. But isnt this a perfect time to trade?
> Why not make a deal of the century. Quite the nuke stuff sell oil. If there is a time to trade equally, it will be now. And i mean trade, not bully each other around.
> 
> There must be a deal worth making. Hope they will find it. Depending on the rest of the oil producers wast a good plan after all.


We has seen the dangers of feeding a tiranical & very unfriendly country with money for oil.

Why repeat that?

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey Admiral; you having trouble with post #8454 too? On my iPhone or my iMac, it locks up on that post.
> I had to post on the previous page to get around it.


I copy the tweet for you

*A russian Su-25 with Garmin GPS 152.




*

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 8, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> We has seen the dangers of feeding a tiranical & very unfriendly country with money for oil.
> 
> Why repeat that?


Because now it is a time we can make deals like equels. That are the deals that will stand.


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## SaparotRob (Jul 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I copy the tweet for you
> 
> *A russian Su-25 with Garmin GPS 152.
> View attachment 676866
> *


I guess I wasn’t authorized to see it.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I guess I wasn’t authorized to see it.


Thw original twitter post was "covered" because it "may have contained" sensative content - which is weird, considering most images with that warning, are for graphic images (like dead bodies, horrible wrecks, etc.).

An obsolete Garmin is frightening, yes, but not enough so as to warrant a viewer warning...

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 8, 2022)

The people in charge of twitter remind me a lot of the mail censors described in Catch 22.

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## GTX (Jul 8, 2022)

'When will you stop the war': Russia's Lavrov gets frosty reception at G20 in Bali


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walks out of talks during the G20 meeting, denouncing the West for "frenzied criticism," and squandering a chance to tackle global economic problems.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 8, 2022)

Putin says Russia barely started in Ukraine, dares West on battlefield


President Vladimir Putin says Russia has barely "even yet started" in Ukraine and dares the West to try to defeat it on the battlefield.




www.abc.net.au





Sadly this just goes to show that the only way this can end is with someone on the Russian side taking out Putin.

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## GTX (Jul 8, 2022)

Moscow responds to Ukraine's defiant Snake Island flag-raising ceremony with air strikes


Ukrainian forces raise their flag on recaptured Snake Island in a defiant act against Moscow, but Russian forces launch new strikes on the island shortly after the ceremony.




www.abc.net.au





I hope (and expect) the reference to Russians celebrating the resignation of Boris Johnson in this story will be akin to Hitler interpreting Roosevelt's death as a sign that things would turn for Germany.

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## GTX (Jul 8, 2022)



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## GTX (Jul 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey Admiral; you having trouble with post #8454 too? On my iPhone or my iMac, it locks up on that post.
> I had to post on the previous page to get around it.


I had the same problem.

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## Denniss (Jul 8, 2022)

Now how to get these special forces to the Krim bridge to blow it up ?


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## GrauGeist (Jul 8, 2022)

This is what the "covered" Twitter post looks like on post #8454:

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## Dimlee (Jul 8, 2022)

Precision munitions are promised.








Biden to send new precision-guided artillery rounds to Ukraine


The administration approves another $400 million in military aid for Kyiv, including mobile rocket launchers and smart shells.




www.politico.com




If not Excalibur then PGK probably?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Back to my earlier post. UAF has underwater "vehicles". Presumably any Russian vessel at port could be struck.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



As an associated link from the page you've linked here:

_
The sinking of Moskva will be in case studies for years to come. A ship which, on paper, had respectable anti-ship missile defenses (ASMD), was caught off guard. David had defeated Goliath.


But the impact was bigger than the loss of a single ship. In an instant it swept away the Russian Navy's sense of invulnerability. They immediately became more risk adverse. Forays nearer the coast continued, possibly to send the message that Russia was not afraid, but the pattern shifted. Routine patrol areas contracted, generally shifting to the Crimea side of the northern Black Sea.


Ukraine for its part found that it's Turkish supplied TB-2 drones could operate near Snake Island. The point air defenses there, the famous Tor and Pantsir systems, could not keep them at bay. TB-2s picked off Russian assault boats and air defense systems. Their biggest coup was hitting a landing craft just as it attempted to disembark a Tor missile system. The sunken landing craft blocked access to the island until it could be salvaged.

[...]

But the TB-2s could also act as reconnaissance for other, harder hitting, weapons. Starting in May there were reports that Denmark would supply Harpoon anti-ship missiles. These were felt by the Russian Navy on June 17 when a valuable support vessel, Vasiliy Bekh, was hit by two. This was despite having a Tor system strapped to its deck. It was sunk.

On June 20 Harpoon were again used to neutralize a Russian controlled gas platform in the Black Sea. These platforms were being used for surveillance.

Russian ships became even more cautious, and the supply line to Snake Island even more strained. Ukrainian drone strikes and missile attacks were beginning to wear down the defenses. And Harpoon kept vital resupplies at bay.

[...]

Submarines are now being used for some of the cruise missile launches. Possibly they can operate more safely closer to the Ukrainian controlled coast. Even the Admiral Grigorovich class frigates are operating well away from the threat. This does not speak of confidence in their ASMD capabilities.

[...]

On the other hand, Russia still imposes an effective blockade. It has been doing this with missile corvettes and patrol boats operating much further south, near to Romania. We should not think that Russia is no longer the stronger navy. But the threat of Harpoon and other systems has pushed it into an almost passive role._









Ukraine Is Turning The Tide Against Russian Navy In Black Sea - Naval News


Russia's navy is, by any measure, more powerful than Ukraine's. But the war is not going all their way. At sea, the Russian Navy is finding itself retreating from a large swathe of the Black Sea.




www.navalnews.com

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 8, 2022)

Nice

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## wlewisiii (Jul 9, 2022)

As bad as the Russian Army has shown itself to be, the Navy is even worse...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Nice



In the bestest way. At sea as well as on land, the Ukrainians are flummoxing Russian moves. While Russia still seems to hold the initiative in the East, they seem a bit gaspy, and the fact they seem unable to impose a stranglehold over the coast strikes me as an opportunity that should not be passed up, given the economical implications.

Those Harpoons are there for a reason.


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## ThomasP (Jul 9, 2022)

US DOD announced earlier today that the story about 2x HIMARS being destroyed is false.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 9, 2022)

Not sure what to think of this: Lack of weapons? Getting rid of old junk? targets of opportunity?








Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official


The Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system does have a little-known latent ability to strike land targets.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> US DOD announced earlier today that the story about 2x HIMARS being destroyed are false.



Let us hope that's true.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Let us hope that's true.


I find it easier to believe the DOD than the Russians for some funny reason

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## GrauGeist (Jul 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure what to think of this: Lack of weapons? Getting rid of old junk? targets of opportunity?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Scraping the bottom of the barrel, perhaps?

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I copy the tweet for you
> 
> *A russian Su-25 with Garmin GPS 152.
> View attachment 676866
> *


I was examining this GPS (I had a similar one) and noticed a few things and learned a few more. It looks like this guy is flying close to a town called "Pravdinsk" located Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia. This area from what I understand is part of Russia but detached from Russia and is surrounded by Poland and Lithuania. There are a number of military bases there, it would seem this would be a real hotspot should things escalate in the region.



 Dimlee
, 
J
 J_P_C
any thoughts, information?







_Lastly, it's worth considering what the fifty mostly dated warplanes of the 132nd​ Aviation Division bring to the fold. The 4th Naval Attack Regiment mixes older Su-24M supersonic bombers with modern Su-30SM multi-role fighters. Both are armed with anti-ship missiles, and the latter can also perform air-to-air missions.

Meanwhile, the 689th​ Fighter Regiment primarily consists of agile but aging Su-27P fighters, though these are to be replaced with Su-27SM and Su-35S multi-role fighters.

There's also the 396th​ Composite Helicopter Regiments based at Donskoe, which fields a squadron each of Mi-24 gunships, Ka-27M anti-submarine and search-and-rescue helicopters, and Mi-8 and Ka-29 transport choppers.

The aviation contingent, however, notably lacks maritime surveillance aviation besides some Forpost drones derived from the Israeli IAI Searcher drone._









Why Russia’s Kaliningrad Naval Base Poses a Deadly Dilemma for NATO


The region is quickly becoming an armed fortress full of more and better equipped military forces.




nationalinterest.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure what to think of this: Lack of weapons? Getting rid of old junk? targets of opportunity?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



My son told me about this earlier tonight. My initial reaction is that they must be running low on general PGMs to be shooting off SAMs at ground targets.

It'd be a shame if the Ukrainians showed up with a hundred or so F-16s.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 9, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I find it easier to believe the DOD than the Russians for some funny reason



Even after they lied to me too!

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## ThomasP (Jul 9, 2022)

From various news outlets:

The Russian leader warned the Ukrainian government in Kyiv that it should quickly accept Moscow's terms or brace for the worst.

"Everybody should know that, largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest," Putin said while speaking with leaders of the Kremlin-controlled parliament Thursday [7 July].

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## ThomasP (Jul 9, 2022)

An interesting analysis/article from about 3 years ago, on the Black Sea situation. It is worth reading the whole article.

"BlackSeaNews | A «Russian Lake»: the Nine Aspects of the Current Situation in the Black Sea"

There are links to other more recent and current articles on the same page.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> "Everybody should know that, largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest," Putin said while speaking with leaders of the Kremlin-controlled parliament Thursday [7 July].


Tens of thousands of Russia’s sons have died thus far, and he’s just getting started? By Christmas they’ll be forty thousand dead Russians, and their mothers and fathers will begin to protest.


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## SaparotRob (Jul 9, 2022)

Unfortunately, many of those casualties are Ukrainian. Putler is doing his best depopulate Eastern Ukraine for his Russkiy Mir, aka lebensraum.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Unfortunately, many of those casualties are Ukrainian.


Those don’t count into Putin’s domestic risk.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> From various news outlets:
> 
> The Russian leader warned the Ukrainian government in Kyiv that it should quickly accept Moscow's terms or brace for the worst.
> 
> "Everybody should know that, largely speaking, we haven't even yet started anything in earnest," Putin said while speaking with leaders of the Kremlin-controlled parliament Thursday [7 July].


More noise from Vladolph Putler.

So we're to take anything he says seriously, now?

And what happened to the "dire consequences" for Finland, or is he going to wait until after he's done saving the world from those pesky Ukrainians?


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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 9, 2022)

Operational pause and partissans, acording to ISW

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## wlewisiii (Jul 9, 2022)



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## GTX (Jul 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Not sure what to think of this: Lack of weapons? Getting rid of old junk? targets of opportunity?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It could also have negative tones in that the Russians don't feel the air threat warrants the use of the system in its primary role.

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## Dimlee (Jul 9, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was examining this GPS (I had a similar one) and noticed a few things and learned a few more. It looks like this guy is flying close to a town called "Pravdinsk" located Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia. This area from what I understand is part of Russia but detached from Russia and is surrounded by Poland and Lithuania. There are a number of military bases there, it would seem this would be a real hotspot should things escalate in the region.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think that today our Polish and Lithuanian friends are better informed about the developments in that area. Suwalki Gap needs to be watched...

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## GTX (Jul 9, 2022)

Russia doesn't produce tanks, UralVagonZavod with half production


At the moment, UralVagonZavod does not produce the desired amount of tanks but has focused its efforts on repairing destroyed combat equipment, sources said.




bulgarianmilitary.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Operational pause and partissans, acording to ISW



“I shot the sheriff but I should have killed the deputy.”
Error corrected.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia doesn't produce tanks, UralVagonZavod with half production
> 
> 
> At the moment, UralVagonZavod does not produce the desired amount of tanks but has focused its efforts on repairing destroyed combat equipment, sources said.
> ...


How is putler supposed to take Alaska now?

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## Dimlee (Jul 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My son told me about this earlier tonight. My initial reaction is that they must be running low on general PGMs to be shooting off SAMs at ground targets.
> 
> It'd be a shame if the Ukrainians showed up with a hundred or so F-16s.


Ukraine made several ground-to-ground tests with S-125, S-300 and (probably) Buk-1M in past. It was considered a stop-gap measure for the coastal defence before anti-ship missiles are deployed.

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## Dimlee (Jul 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How is putler supposed to take Alaska now?


With creativity and natural resources.

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## special ed (Jul 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia doesn't produce tanks, UralVagonZavod with half production
> 
> 
> At the moment, UralVagonZavod does not produce the desired amount of tanks but has focused its efforts on repairing destroyed combat equipment, sources said.
> ...


What? What's this?
Quote: 
" .....another Russian manufacturer, Barnaul Machine Building Plant is losing customers, including countries from North America, .....

Who is buying Russian tanks?

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## SaparotRob (Jul 9, 2022)

special ed said:


> What? What's this?
> Quote:
> " .....another Russian manufacturer, Barnaul Machine Building Plant is losing customers, including countries from North America, .....
> 
> Who is buying Russian tanks?


Ukrainian scrap dealers.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 9, 2022)

This war is like a strange race to see who can unload their Soviet junk first.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 9, 2022)

special ed said:


> Who is buying Russian tanks?


Not a tank nor recent, but BaT is a great source for all things vehicular. Soviet 8x8: BTR-80 Armored Transporter

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## Denniss (Jul 9, 2022)

Putin reminds me more and more of Hitler, he too believed the shit he was speaking about, counting and playing with ghost armies and divisions

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## GrauGeist (Jul 9, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Putin reminds me more and more of Hitler, he too believed the shit he was speaking about, counting and playing with ghost armies and divisions


And what I find interesting, is that the Einsatzgruppen were "special operation" units.

I'm starting to think that it's not a coincidence that the term is being used in a similar fashion...

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 9, 2022)

Now that the Russians have “paused“ what does Ukraine need to begin its offensive into the Donbas? It’s one thing to destroy ammo depots with the new HIMARS, but a sustained offensive?


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## ThomasP (Jul 9, 2022)

Time.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Now that the Russians have “paused“ what does Ukraine need to begin its offensive into the Donbas? It’s one thing to destroy ammo depots with the new HIMARS, but a sustained offensive?



1) Time ( 
T
 ThomasP
got there first). Ukraine's forces, like the Russians, are also battered, and while new classes of recruits are coming in, they too will need time to be folded into units. Tired units will need to be reconstituted, resupplied, and and brought back to battlefield snuff. Damaged vehicles will need repairs.

2) New equipment. They've likely lost quite a bit of equipment, and what isn't damaged or destroyed is probably worn by the incessant combat. In the offensive, mobility is key unless you're aiming for a grinding battle, so trucks and APCs, along with escorting vehicles. I seem to remember reading that the Ukrainians have lost about 500 tanks and other armor. Also, more artillery. Lots more, preferably self-propelled due to it being able to follow an advance efficiently.

Ideally more and better aircraft. I hope that's going on under wraps, say, in Germany, but that seems like hopeless optimism on my part.

3) Training. They will not only need training on most of the new equipment, they will need time for retraining in order to make sure that forces that have been fighting defensively can turn around and actively prosecute an offensive. They will also have to, as noted above, train and incorporate new troops into the force.

4) I haven't heard much on this score, but I bet they're going to need quite a bit of fuel.

5) A damned good plan, to maximize the capabilities of their forces.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 10, 2022)

If Putin is playing from Hitler's playbook (which it appears he is), then he should know that when the German Army paused at Stalingrad and Leningrad, it allowed the Red Army to rally and go on the offensive.

In warfare, one does not pause - to do so allows the enemy to reinforce, regroup and reconfigure.

Obviously Putler never read the books by Rommel or Patton.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Scraping the bottom of the barrel, perhaps?





Thumpalumpacus said:


> My son told me about this earlier tonight. My initial reaction is that they must be running low on general PGMs to be shooting off SAMs at ground targets.
> 
> It'd be a shame if the Ukrainians showed up with a hundred or so F-16s.





GTX said:


> It could also have negative tones in that the Russians don't feel the air threat warrants the use of the system in its primary role.


Well, not sure about S-300, but this certainly looks like scraping the bottom of the barrel

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## Dimlee (Jul 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 1) Time (
> T
> ThomasP
> got there first). Ukraine's forces, like the Russians, are also battered, and while new classes of recruits are coming in, they too will need time to be folded into units. Tired units will need to be reconstituted, resupplied, and and brought back to battlefield snuff. Damaged vehicles will need repairs.
> ...


Ukrainian needs and losses as reported on 15 June:
_"I'm just going to tell you I think to fulfill those needs we have to engage the entire military industrial complex of the entire world. We have received a large number of weapon systems, but unfortunately with such a massively expendable resource, it only covers 10 to 15 percent of our needs."
"to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them."
"Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems."_





Ukraine to U.S.Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons


Ukraine to U.S. Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons




www.nationaldefensemagazine.org

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If Putin is playing from Hitler's playbook (which it appears he is), then he should know that when the German Army paused at Stalingrad and Leningrad, it allowed the Red Army to rally and go on the offensive.
> 
> In warfare, one does not pause - to do so allows the enemy to reinforce, regroup and reconfigure.
> 
> Obviously Putler never read the books by Rommel or Patton.


They didn’t so much pause at Stalingrad and Leningrad but more were ground to a halt by their losses, logistical limitations and the ferocity of the enemy. Germany didn’t decide to pause, the Russians forced them to. Now, had the Sixth Army paused outside of Stalingrad, waited for their logistics to catch up, and then disregarded the city by moving southward instead, they might have done better. Sometimes a pause to resupply and plan is beneficial.

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## J_P_C (Jul 10, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I was examining this GPS (I had a similar one) and noticed a few things and learned a few more. It looks like this guy is flying close to a town called "Pravdinsk" located Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia. This area from what I understand is part of Russia but detached from Russia and is surrounded by Poland and Lithuania. There are a number of military bases there, it would seem this would be a real hotspot should things escalate in the region.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Kaliningrad/ Koningsberg /Królewiec since USSR collapse is counted by Polish military as potential flashing point. From one side huge threat as region with biggest concentration of military hardware in the world right now from other hand - because of limited size - it is also trap for russian troops exposed for , sea, air and long range land attacks. In a case of conflict preventive strike eliminating this forces is more than probable element of NATO strategy.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 10, 2022)

More on the impact of HIMARS and GMLRS. Ukrainians seem to be very happy with them.









Ukraine targets Russia’s ammunition depots, undermining its artillery advantage


It is an almost everyday occurrence in the Russian-occupied parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia’s ammunition depots blow up, with large fires erupting as tons of ordnance detonate for hours. Some of these incidents cause giant blasts with radii of




kyivindependent.com

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## WARSPITER (Jul 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They didn’t so much pause at Stalingrad and Leningrad but more were ground to a halt by their losses, logistical limitations and the ferocity of the enemy. Germany didn’t decide to pause, the Russians forced them to. Now, had the Sixth Army paused outside of Stalingrad, waited for their logistics to catch up, and then disregarded the city by moving southward instead, they might have done better. Sometimes a pause to resupply and plan is beneficial.


The Germans were actually stopped because their logistical tail couldn't catch up. This is what has happened to the Russian forces and both cases are examples of the 
result of poor planning and backup.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Kaliningrad/ Koningsberg /Królewiec since USSR collapse is counted by Polish military as potential flashing point. From one side huge threat as region with biggest concentration of military hardware in the world right now from other hand - because of limited size - it is also trap for russian troops exposed for , sea, air and long range land attacks. In a case of conflict preventive strike eliminating this forces is more than probable element of NATO strategy.


Thanks for the input and now seeing it on a map I agree.


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## Glider (Jul 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 1) Time (
> T
> ThomasP
> got there first). Ukraine's forces, like the Russians, are also battered, and while new classes of recruits are coming in, they too will need time to be folded into units. Tired units will need to be reconstituted, resupplied, and and brought back to battlefield snuff. Damaged vehicles will need repairs.


Your right, its a race to repair the equipment and the men, retrain learning the lessons of the recent conflict and reconstitute the units. On this I am a little hopeful as the vast majority of the people in Ukraine want to defend their homeland, and the majority of the Russian forces (and their allies) *don't* want to be there 


Thumpalumpacus said:


> 2) New equipment. They've likely lost quite a bit of equipment, and what isn't damaged or destroyed is probably worn by the incessant combat. In the offensive, mobility is key unless you're aiming for a grinding battle, so trucks and APCs, along with escorting vehicles. I seem to remember reading that the Ukrainians have lost about 500 tanks and other armor. Also, more artillery. Lots more, preferably self-propelled due to it being able to follow an advance efficiently.


Maybe, just maybe this is one where the Ukraine have a slight advantage. The average quality of the new equipment Ukraine is getting is at least as good and often better than what they had originally. Whereas the average quality of the equipment the Russian forces are getting is worse than they originally had. Russia still has a very significant numerical advantage, but that advantage seems to be getting slowly eroded


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Ideally more and better aircraft. I hope that's going on under wraps, say, in Germany, but that seems like hopeless optimism on my part.


Totally agree. It's something that I have been banging on about since the start of this conflict.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> 3) Training. They will not only need training on most of the new equipment, they will need time for retraining in order to make sure that forces that have been fighting defensively can turn around and actively prosecute an offensive. They will also have to, as noted above, train and incorporate new troops into the force.
> 
> 4) I haven't heard much on this score, but I bet they're going to need quite a bit of fuel.
> 
> 5) A damned good plan, to maximize the capabilities of their forces.


I kept these together as in Training and Planning, these are two areas where the Ukraine does seem to have a firm advantage. If they had fought the way they had been trained prior to 2014 they this conflict could easily have been over by now. We have seen ordinary civilian workers manning Tanks and other complex weapons with aplomb and self evident success.
Russian planning at both strategic and tactical levels has been shocking, and training would need a serious amount of rebuilding from the ground up. 
Ukraine worked hard from 2014 on listening to US, Canadian and UK advisors and made a fundamental shift in their planning and training. Who are Russian going to turn to for advice and would they listen anyway?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> Your right, its a race to repair the equipment and the men, retrain learning the lessons of the recent conflict and reconstitute the units. On this I am a little hopeful as the vast majority of the people in Ukraine want to defend their homeland, and the majority of the Russian forces (and their allies) *don't* want to be there
> 
> Maybe, just maybe this is one where the Ukraine have a slight advantage. The average quality of the new equipment Ukraine is getting is at least as good and often better than what they had originally. Whereas the average quality of the equipment the Russian forces are getting is worse than they originally had. Russia still has a very significant numerical advantage, but that advantage seems to be getting slowly eroded
> 
> ...



If the Ukrainians can hold out until the autumn _rasputsitsa_ sets in, they should be okay. I suspect that's exactly why the Russians are mounting a full-court press right now. British intel is reporting that the Russians are scraping up reserves from around the country to deploy in support of capitalizing on the "success" of the capture of the twin cities.


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## GTX (Jul 10, 2022)

Russia accused of 21,920 war crimes . . . and counting


Ukraine’s chief prosecutor smoothes out the document she has on the table before her which lays out the terrible count of Russian war crimes in black and white.




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## wlewisiii (Jul 10, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jul 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Has it been corroborated?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Let us hope this is true.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 11, 2022)

For those who can access The Times








Ukraine has one million ready for fightback to recapture south


Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister h




www.thetimes.co.uk





Seems like Ukrinians favor retaking the south over the Donbas

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 11, 2022)

ISW paragraph on the use of S-300 on the ground to ground role.






Institute for the Study of War


Russian forces are in the midst of a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. This operational pause has been largely characterized by Russian troops regrouping to rest, refit, and reconstitute; heavy artillery fire in critical areas to set conditions




www.understandingwar.org





_Ukraine's Southern Operational Command notably stated that Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on ground targets in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[26] The use of anti-aircraft missiles in such a manner is inefficient, as such missiles carry small payloads and are optimized for destroying fragile aircraft in flight rather than ground targets. The reported Russian use of S-300 missiles in a ground attack role is also notable because of *reports and indications that the Russians are having difficulty defending against Ukrainian manned air operations* and missile strikes in the Southern Axis area. The decision to use S-300 missiles in this role in these circumstances may indicate that Russia is running out of surface-to-surface missiles or that it is running low on parts needed for the missiles' air-to-air guidance or communications systems._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> For those who can access The Times
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Retaking the south makes some sense. While the eastern part of the country does indeed contain much industry, the south contains the ports, and that's where the money will come into the country from agri-sales.

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## ThomasP (Jul 11, 2022)

re "Seems like Ukrainians favor retaking the south over the Donbas"

Ukraine can not 'safely' advance large forces into the Donbas until their southern flank is secure, due to having to fight on multiple fronts and the dangers of being cut-off in a similar manner to what potentially could have happened at Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk. The southern/coastal regions are farther from Russia and Belarus, and so will have less effective opposition from Russian air power. Also, it will be easier to cut the supply lines to the RF forces, and put the RF forces in danger of being cut-off. Taking back the coastal areas will allow greater interdiction opportunities against RF naval operations, and against logistics via Crimea.

Add to this the fact that the Crimean populace appears to be a very unwilling participant in the war . . .

edit: Plus what Thumpalumpacus just posted.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 11, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Jul 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



This is the Germany I respect.

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## Glider (Jul 11, 2022)

Hard to disagree with anything he said.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> Had to disagree with anything he said.


Really? All of it? What do you disagree with specifically?


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## Glider (Jul 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Really? All of it? What do you disagree with specifically?


Major Typo now corrected 

Had should have been Hard

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## GTX (Jul 11, 2022)

Vladimir Putin's stooges threaten to reclaim Alaska from US

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin's stooges threaten to reclaim Alaska from US




















Alaskans by themselves could likely handle it with an assist from the USAF. They're no folk to be messing with ... and they're used to dealing with grouchy bears.

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## GTX (Jul 11, 2022)

Putin's revised theory of victory in Ukraine is starting to become clear


Throughout Putin's war against Ukraine, his primary objective has not shifted. What has evolved since February 24 has been the ways and means he has used to achieve it, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Jul 11, 2022)

Dear Mr. Putin, regarding reclaiming territory, the Japanese would like to have a word with you...

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## SaparotRob (Jul 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin's stooges threaten to reclaim Alaska from US


It took them more than three months to cross a river against a "fictitious" country that's begging for ammo. 
They lost 3 large ships in a land war.
Their aircraft carrier was put out of commission by its own dry dock. 
How they gonna' cross the Bering Straight against unusually heavily armed (even for America) Americans?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It took them more than three months to cross a river against a "fictitious" country that's begging for ammo.
> They lost 3 large ships in a land war.
> Their aircraft carrier was put out of commission by its own dry dock.
> How they gonna' cross the Bering Straight against unusually heavily armed (even for America) Americans?



The last time they managed that was fourteen thousand years ago ... and Alaska was unpopulated then.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 11, 2022)



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## Mike Williams (Jul 11, 2022)

I found this analysis of July 8, 2022 from the Österreichs Bundesheer depressing.



Ukranian Brig. Gen. V. Karpenko stated:
Ukraine has lost about "50% of equipment and even soldiers".
approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

M777 artillery systems are really prone to being damaged by enemy artillery.

Estimate of force ratio: Ukrainians have 60 Battalion Tactical Groups versus 108 for the Russians
The possibility of the Ukrainians to fight is degrading while the Russian side is still increasing.

It's not all bad news with better weapons coming on board, but still, damned depressing.

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## at6 (Jul 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin's stooges threaten to reclaim Alaska from US


This is why our wise Founding Fathers created the Second Amendment. There be Trophy Orcs stuffed like Brown Bears on display everywhere.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 12, 2022)

at6 said:


> This is why our wise Founding Fathers created the Second Amendment. There be Trophy Orcs stuffed like Brown Bears on display everywhere.


Eh, the history of that is just a wee bit messier than that. Northern fear of standing armies and southern fear of slave rebellion make for a much more complex real history. I won't go into it any further because politics.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Eh, the history of that is just a wee bit messier than that. Northern fear of standing armies and southern fear of slave rebellion make for a much more complex real history. I won't go into it any further because politics.


The constitution was written well before any of that - it was drafted in 1787, when the lessons of the Revolutionary War was still fresh in the founding father's minds - and the 1st and 2nd amendments were first and foremost to their concept on preservation of the fledgling nation.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 12, 2022)

We don't want to go there. 

Suffice it to say that you might find it useful to look into _when_, especially the southern states, required what is now the second amendment before they'd be willing to ratify the constitution. They had no interest in their property having any fantasy of freedom. 

The fantasy of protecting the nation via the militia was, at best. the fifth string set of pretenses of what people have to say.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 12, 2022)

Lets not get into a gun rights debate gentleman.

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## swampyankee (Jul 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin's stooges threaten to reclaim Alaska from US


Do they forget that the czar sold it as they needed the money?

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## SaparotRob (Jul 12, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Do they forget that the czar sold it as they needed the money?


Hey, did we get a receipt?

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## swampyankee (Jul 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey, did we get a receipt?


I'm sure it's well-preserved in an archive.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 12, 2022)

Putin’s Cronies Told to Ditch Summer Vacation for Mystery ‘Emergency Meeting’


(Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)Russia’s State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin announced an emergency session Monday, calling back Russian lawmakers for an “extraordinary” meeting just as representatives went out for summer vacation, raising alarm that Russia’s parliament might be...




www.yahoo.com

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## J_P_C (Jul 12, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jul 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin’s Cronies Told to Ditch Summer Vacation for Mystery ‘Emergency Meeting’
> 
> 
> (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)Russia’s State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin announced an emergency session Monday, calling back Russian lawmakers for an “extraordinary” meeting just as representatives went out for summer vacation, raising alarm that Russia’s parliament might be...
> ...


All this mobilization for a 3 day war.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 12, 2022)

I think I hear a comical song about Putler’s 3 day war set to the tune of Gilligan’s Island.

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## fubar57 (Jul 12, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-parliament-laws-military-1.6517083

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## Crimea_River (Jul 12, 2022)

Not sure how much attention this is getting elsewhere but Canada has had to navigate a tricky issue between two allies. A turbine that was being repaired here for the Nord Stream gas line has been stuck here since sanctions were imposed. Germany wanted it released and Ukraine said don't do it. On the weekend, a decision was made to release the turbine and now the Ukrainians are miffed.









Canada Will Return Sanctioned Nord Stream Turbine to Germany


Canada has agreed to export a natural-gas turbine back to Germany for use in the Nord Stream pipeline, issuing a “time-limited and revocable” permit to exempt it from sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry.




www.bloomberg.com





Yesterday, the US State Dept. supported the move.









U.S. backs Canada's decision to return Russia-Germany pipeline turbines


The United States is supporting Canada's decision to allow a Canadian company to return turbines from a Russian pipeline that supplies natural gas to Germany, saying in the short term it was the right move, as European countries continue working towards reducing their 'collective dependence' on...




www.ctvnews.ca

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## SaparotRob (Jul 12, 2022)

Between a rock and a hard place.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 12, 2022)

Analysis with plenty of interesting and resourceful links by Lawrence Freedman Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. Covering manpower shortages, equipment loses, difficulties for repairing damaged equipment and preparing stored equipment, logistics, etc.

Worth a read.









Time for the Russian Army to take stock


(Photo by Contributor/Getty Images) In my last post I asked whether Ukraine could win this war, to which I answered it could, although it was not yet clear whether it would. In this post I want to expand on one of the reasons I came to this conclusion.




samf.substack.com

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## wlewisiii (Jul 12, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jul 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin’s Cronies Told to Ditch Summer Vacation for Mystery ‘Emergency Meeting’
> 
> 
> (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)Russia’s State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin announced an emergency session Monday, calling back Russian lawmakers for an “extraordinary” meeting just as representatives went out for summer vacation, raising alarm that Russia’s parliament might be...
> ...


Some unhappy conscripts are about to find out their three day romp just got extended.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 12, 2022)

Assholes

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## Dimlee (Jul 13, 2022)

German military assistance to Ukraine, delivered and planned.








Militärische Unterstützungsleistungen für die Ukraine | Bundesregierung


Auflistungen der Abgaben aus Beständen der Bundeswehr und die Lieferungen durch die Industrie (finanziert aus Mitteln der Ertüchtigungsinitiative der Bundesregierung).




www.bundesregierung.de

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## Dimlee (Jul 13, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I found this analysis of July 8, 2022 from the Österreichs Bundesheer depressing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Karpenko's words are probably taken from there:





Ukraine to U.S.Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons


Ukraine to U.S. Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons




www.nationaldefensemagazine.org




But he did not discuss personnel losses. Only the losses of equipment and further needs.
_"...one brigade occupies around 40 kilometers of the fence line. That means that to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them.
I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I'm just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems."_

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## pgeno71 (Jul 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> We don't want to go there.
> 
> Suffice it to say that you might find it useful to look into _when_, especially the southern states, required what is now the second amendment before they'd be willing to ratify the constitution. They had no interest in their property having any fantasy of freedom.
> 
> The fantasy of protecting the nation via the militia was, at best. the fifth string set of pretenses of what people have to say.


I agree with your statement that militias played a role in suppressing potential slave insurrections. Historically, one of the necessary roles of militias was to suppress internal unrest. But I think your implication about time and state's requirements before ratification is not completely accurate. It seemed to me from your post that you were saying that Southern slave states did not support ratification of the Constitution until there was an amendment that protected the right to keep and bear arms. The problem is that 4 of the 6 Southern states ratified the Constitution without demanding an amendment that resembled the second. 

Delaware and Georgia immediately ratified the document unanimously in December of 1787 and neither state proposed any amendments to the Constitution. The next southern state, Maryland, ratified in April 1788 and while its proposed amendments do concern insuring state control over militias, it does not mention a right to arms. In May 1788, South Carolina ratified the Constitution and none of it proposed amendments mentioned militias or the right to arms.

It was not until the Virginia ratification convention (June 1788) did a proposed amendment mention a right to keep and bear arms. North Carolina echoed the same sentiment in their proposed amendments in November 1789. But both states still ratified the document before there was a working draft of the Bill of Rights. Both states probably realized that Madison, being a Virginian, would include such an amendment in a draft of the promised Bill of Rights. This is not to say they did not become defenders of the amendment at some point, but the documents show that for half of the Southern slave states, the issues addressed in the Second Amendment did not factor into their support for ratification. 

You have to remember support for the ratification of the U.S. Constitution involved a plethora of issues that were different from state to state. To generalize the process down to one or even a few issues is an oversimplification of a very complex process. I spend a whole semester in graduate school doing an independent study on just the ratification of the Constitution. I'm not mentioning this to say that "I'm an expert" and "you should think as I do" - all I'm saying is that it's complicated. Take care, best wishes.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 14, 2022)

_KYIV, July 14 (Reuters) - Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia far behind the frontlines on Thursday in an attack which Ukrainian officials called a war crime and said had killed at least 20 people, including three children.

The strike, which Ukraine said had been carried out with Kalibr cruise missiles launched from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea, came a day after a breakthrough in talks between Moscow and Kyiv to unblock Ukrainian grain exports and underscored how far the two sides remain from a peace settlement. 

[...]

"Cruise missiles hit two community facilities, houses were destroyed, a medical centre was destroyed, cars and trams were on fire."

[...]

Video footage showed thick black smoke billowing out of a tall building, while photographs posted online by the State Emergency Service showed grey smoke rising later from the twisted remains of burnt-out cars and smouldering rubble.

One showed an abandoned, overturned pram lying on the street._










Ukraine condemns Russia strike that killed 23 in 'ordinary, peaceful' city


Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia far behind the frontlines on Thursday in an attack which Ukrainian officials called a war crime and said had killed at least 23 people, including three children.




www.reuters.com





Heart-breaking.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 14, 2022)

Russian official accidentally reveals missiles being used in Ukraine


Just weeks ago, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Russian forces use Tochka-U missiles.




www.newsweek.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russian official accidentally reveals missiles being used in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Just weeks ago, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Russian forces use Tochka-U missiles.
> ...



You mean the same missiles the Russians a few weeks ago said they didn't use any more? _Those_ Tochkas?

Uh-huh, yeah. Sure. Ri-i-i-ight.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You mean the same missiles the Russians a few weeks ago said they didn't use any more? _Those_ Tochkas?
> 
> Uh-huh, yeah. Sure. Ri-i-i-ight.



Yep....EXACTLY those missiles that don't exist or were never used! 

You really can't make up this stuff. And yet they persist, and with straight faces too.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yep....EXACTLY those missiles that don't exist or were never used!
> 
> You really can't make up this stuff. And yet they persist, and with straight faces too.



I might have fallen off'n the cabbage truck, but I didn't fall off yesterday.

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## Dimlee (Jul 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You mean the same missiles the Russians a few weeks ago said they didn't use any more? _Those_ Tochkas?
> 
> Uh-huh, yeah. Sure. Ri-i-i-ight.


In 2014, Kremlin propaganda claimed that there were no 9M38 missiles in the Russian air defence inventory. That missile shot down MH17. At the same time, there were dozens of pictures and videos of Russian Buk launchers with 9M38 on marches, parades, etc.

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## Dimlee (Jul 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, July 14 (Reuters) - Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia far behind the frontlines on Thursday in an attack which Ukrainian officials called a war crime and said had killed at least 20 people, including three children.
> 
> The strike, which Ukraine said had been carried out with Kalibr cruise missiles launched from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea, came a day after a breakthrough in talks between Moscow and Kyiv to unblock Ukrainian grain exports and underscored how far the two sides remain from a peace settlement.
> 
> ...


Inside the shop during the missile strike.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 14, 2022)

Those styrofoam cups were a threat to Russian speaking scones.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Those styrofoam cups were a threat to Russian speaking scones.



Look, the toy dogs were clearly a threat to this Russian army.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 15, 2022)

It may be ukrainian propaganda, but certainly I didn't read anything about RUAF operations over Ukraine lately






The enemy is afraid to fly into the territory of Ukraine: with what missiles does it attack and how many APUs are shot down – News







newsreadonline.com





_Russians do not fly into Ukrainian airspaceIgnat noted that the Russians have not flown into Ukrainian airspace for *2 and a half months*. The enemy has changed its tactics: it operates from the territory of Belarus, Russia, the Black and Caspian Seas. From there, the occupiers launch various types of cruise missiles.

According to the speaker, now the Russians mainly use Soviet-made missiles. There is talk that they are running out of stocks of high-tech missiles, for example, Caliber or Iskander.

Therefore, the invaders use Kh-22, Kh-59, Kh-31 missiles._

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## buffnut453 (Jul 15, 2022)

Just one more small human tragedy in this hideous conflict. However, it further illustrates the kind of people (and I use that term VERY loosely) that Ukraine is fighting against. They have no respect for human life. No respect for the rule of law. No interest in truth. Even no common decency. The term 'Orc' definitely seems appropriate.









Ukraine war: British man Paul Urey held by separatists dies


British man Paul Urey, captured by Russian-backed separatists, has died in detention, reports say.



www.bbc.com





In case you weren't tracking this story, this man was working for a humanitarian organization. He'd heard about a Ukrainian woman trapped behind Russian lines. He was trying to evacuate her but was arrested by Donetsk separatists. He died while imprisoned.

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## Dimlee (Jul 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It may be ukrainian propaganda, but certainly I didn't read anything about RUAF operations over Ukraine lately
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, for over 2 months they limited operations of their manned aircraft to close support near the frontline.
As for the missile stock, it's hard to estimate. Maybe just a temporary shortage of modern ammunition which will be over after production lines go to 3 shifts per day.


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## Dimlee (Jul 15, 2022)

M270 MRLS in Ukraine, according to the Minister of Defence.

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## Glider (Jul 15, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> M270 MRLS in Ukraine, according to the Minister of Defence.



I am pretty sure that this is a UK example. Its the number plate that gives me this feeling.


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## GTX (Jul 15, 2022)

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3353128/scandal_in_russian_concern_azmazantey_according_to_documents_s400_complexes_should_shoot_down_himars

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## GTX (Jul 15, 2022)

150 Buryat Soldiers in Russian Army Resign - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice


The Free Buryatia organization announced that around 150 Buryat soldiers who were serving in the Russian Army in… - Jul. 13, 2022. By Jason Jay Smart




www.kyivpost.com

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## GTX (Jul 15, 2022)

'Shoot me, but I won't confess': Ukrainian medic describes hell of Russian captivity


Taira constantly thinks about the prisoners she left behind in a tiny 3m by 6m prison cell where she was held by Russian forces.




www.abc.net.au

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 15, 2022)

THese people are worse than Storm Troopers,


GTX said:


> https://m.censor.net/en/news/3353128/scandal_in_russian_concern_azmazantey_according_to_documents_s400_complexes_should_shoot_down_himars



I wonder if this will lead Turkey to switch back to a NATO system

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 15, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> THese people are worse than Storm Troopers,
> 
> 
> I wonder if this will lead Turkey to switch back to a NATO system



Only if they shut up about Finland and Sweden, would be my guess. Hardball is hardball and we each get half an inning.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 15, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> THese people are worse than Storm Troopers,
> 
> 
> I wonder if this will lead Turkey to switch back to a NATO system


Did you catch this part?

"...the military industrial complex of Nazi Russia..."

Pure gold!!

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## buffnut453 (Jul 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Only if they shut up about Finland and Sweden, would be my guess. Hardball is hardball and we each get half an inning.



Could be an opportunity for Turkey to offload their Russian SAMs onto Ukraine. Removes the NATO interoperability problem. Makes them look like supportive team players. Gives Ukraine some needed additional air defence capability that could reach into occupied areas of the Donbas. Win-win-win.

The downside, of course, is that it would upset Moscow and I'm pretty sure Ankara doesn't want to do that.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

Erdogan seems to be flexing a bit of muscle, tweaking both sides's noses a bit. He must be looking good at home. He influenced NATO this time and got his way. Russia might not be looking like a good long term bet with putin going hat in hand to Iran. "Will you be my friend?" 
Erdogan okays the most amazing NATO additions. Why not grab a concession or two? Which frightens putler more? A Ukraine trying to get into the EU or a Freaking NATO Finland?. Is Ankara hosting talks between Ukraine and Mordor? I have read rumor(?) of Turkey providing escort for Ukrainian grain shipments. It would certainly help Ukraine to improve its air defense by getting those "HIMAR proof" S-400 systems. Turkey is a player. 
As buffnut453 said "..a good opportunity to offload their Russian SAMS.." Man, those Orc weapons salesmen must be having a tough year.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 16, 2022)

I bet Assad is starting to feel mighty stupid for letting the Russian Camel in his tent...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Could be an opportunity for Turkey to offload their Russian SAMs onto Ukraine. Removes the NATO interoperability problem. Makes them look like supportive team players. Gives Ukraine some needed additional air defence capability that could reach into occupied areas of the Donbas. Win-win-win.
> 
> The downside, of course, is that it would upset Moscow and I'm pretty sure Ankara doesn't want to do that.



This is pretty insightful, and thanks for posting it. I hadn't thought about it that way.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He must be looking good at home. He influenced NATO this time and got his way.



Erdogan is surely playing to a domestic market first. They have "elections" coming up. And of course he's niggling NATO's nose for exactly that reason.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I bet Assad is starting to feel mighty stupid for letting the Russian Camel in his tent...



Sucks to be a a small fish in a big pond.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I bet Assad is starting to feel mighty stupid for letting the Russian Camel in his tent...


He would be dead by now, otherwise.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

Thoughts on Iran?








What Drones Is Iran Supplying To Russia And What Impact Will They Have In Ukraine? (Updated - Imagery Confirms Drone Types)


Iran produces a huge variety of drones. Some types will be more useful to Russia than others, and could fill key gaps in the Russian arsenal.




www.forbes.com




If Russia obtains many more weaponized and recon drones they‘ll be better placed for victory in Ukraine.


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## Glider (Jul 16, 2022)

The bit that I find interesting is the video of the mine being defused. It certainly works but looks totally obsolete, the wiring looks as if it has been around for decades and the rust when they were opening up wasn't just a few weeks old



Putin's masterplan exposed: Russia closing in on 'last puzzle piece' to control Black Sea

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> The bit that I find interesting is the video of the mine being defused. It certainly works but looks totally obsolete, the wiring looks as if it has been around for decades and the rust when they were opening up wasn't just a few weeks old
> 
> 
> 
> Putin's masterplan exposed: Russia closing in on 'last puzzle piece' to control Black Sea


I found this part weird.

_“Dr Marina Miron, of the Centre for Military Ethics at King's College London, described Putin's "overall strategic goal" in securing the port, "Putin wants to share control over the Black Sea region.”_

I have to assume her accuracy and literacy are spot on, but I don’t think Putin wants to share anything.

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## swampyankee (Jul 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have to assume her accuracy and literacy are spot on, but I don’t think Putin wants to share anything.


I think Putin is very much following in the footsteps of his predecessors from the 20th and 19th, and possibly many earlier centuries. I don't care about Putin, _per se_, but his domestic policies are dictatorial and his foreign policies beyond interventionist.

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

Czech Mi-24 assault helicopters enter the fight in Ukraine


The Ukrainian military confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received its first attack helicopters from the Czech Republic. According to Defense Express, recently received Mi-24V Hind armed assault helicopters, donated by the Czech government as part of its military support, were used...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

House authorizes training for Ukrainian pilots to use US aircraft


The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.




www.defensenews.com













Plan To Train Ukrainian Pilots On U.S. Jets Passed By House Of Representatives


After months of campaigning for new equipment, Ukrainian Air Force pilots could be poised to start training on U.S.-made fighter jets.




www.thedrive.com













Zelenskyy's Office confirms US plans to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on F-15, F-16 fighter jets


The United States plans to train Ukrainian fighter pilots on the F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Andriy Yermak, head of the President's Office, said in a Telegram messenger post on July 15.




english.nv.ua

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

This would be sweet:

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 16, 2022)

nice! I hope they add the A-10

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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

We all do! Big gun go BRRRRT.

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

Meh! Personally I feel the A-10 is overrated in the present age.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

I agree with you, GTX, but BIG GUN GO BRRRT!


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## buffnut453 (Jul 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> We all do! Big gun go BRRRRT.



Are you my brother by another mother? My family is well accustomed to me saying "Big car go BRRRMMM!" every time I see a cool, old car particularly a Bentley Blower or any Aston Martin.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Are you my brother by another mother? My family is well accustomed to me saying "Big car go BRRRMMM!" every time I see a cool, old car particularly a Bentley Blower or any Aston Martin.


Dude!


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## GrauGeist (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Meh! Personally I feel the A-10 is overrated in the present age.


I'm sure the Russians in that massive convoy outside of Kyiv a while back, wouldn't have thought so...

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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure the Russians in that massive convoy outside of Kyiv a while back, wouldn't have thought so...


That had to be every A-10 pilot's non-gender specific nocturnal emission.

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure the Russians in that massive convoy outside of Kyiv a while back, wouldn't have thought so...


And yet where were the SU-25s that Ukraine already has and which would have been just as effective?


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## SaparotRob (Jul 16, 2022)

Yeah, but it ain't like seeing an American bird in Ukrainian colors.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Meh! Personally I feel the A-10 is overrated in the present age.


Not if the Russian SAMs are ineffective.

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

Russia says it is stepping up operations as more rockets hit Ukraine and civilian death toll mounts


Russia says its forces will step up military operations in Ukraine in "all operational areas" as Moscow's rockets and missiles pound cities in strikes that Kyiv says have killed dozens in recent days.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Not if the Russian SAMs are ineffective.


This would imply that they are not:






List of aircraft losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





And don't forget that Ukraine has asked for more Russian SAMs.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> This would imply that they are not:


I don’t see a lot of fixed wing strike aircraft losses that mention SAMs. A very few give us the necessary info to decide on the SAM risk to strike aircraft, like:

_“25 February 2022: An Su-27 was shot down over Kyiv by Russian S-400 air defense system“_

Instead that website lists losses like the below:

_24 February 2022: Ukrainian Su-24 is lost during the opening days of the war in Poltava.
27 February 2022: A Su-24 call sign White 44, from 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade was lost near Bucha
27 February 2022: A Su-25, call sign Blue 39, was shot down near Hlibivka Vyshgorod, Kyiv_

What happened to these aircraft? Why were the first two lost? Perhaps mechanical or operator failures? What shot down the last one? No mention of SAMs. Maybe it was AAMs or gunfire?


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## GTX (Jul 16, 2022)

Given that at the start of this year they reportedly had around 15 - 20 in service and have lost 9 - 10 it is still fairly significant.

See the following from here (noting both source though also other inputs)



> The Ukrainian Air force also operates Su-25s. On 26 February three Su-25s from the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade were lost. "Blue 19" and "Blue 30" were shot down over the Kherson region.[96]​ The pilots were presumed dead. Photos of the wrecks of the two Ukrainian aircraft were published.[97]​[98]​[99]​ A third aircraft from the 299th was lost, but the pilot, Andrey Maksinov was captured by Russian forces.[100]​ Ukrainian media acknowledged that the pilot was Ukrainian.[101]​ The next day another Su-25, "Blue 39", piloted by Gennady Matulyak was shot down near Hlibivka Vyshgorod, Kyiv region.[102]​[103]​ On 2 March, one Su-25 from 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade piloted by Oleksandr Korpan was lost over Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast.[104]​[105]​[106]​ On 10 March one Su-25, "Blue 31" was shot down near Nova Kakhovka, Kherson.[107]​[108]​[109]​ On 14 March another Su-25 was shot down by Russian forces in Volnovakha, Donbas region. The pilot, Roman Vasyliuk, was captured by Russian forces and later released on 24 April, in a Russo-Ukrainian prisoner swap.[110]​[111]​ On 22 March, a Ukrainian Su-25, heavily damaged in combat was recorded in video.[112]​ On 15 April, a Ukrainian Su-25 was reportedly shot down by Russian forces in Izyum.[113]​ The downing of the aircraft was recorded by a military camera in thermographic mode.[114]​ The pilot, Captain Yegor Seredyuk, was reported as being killed near Izyum on 15 April.[115]​[116]​Seredyuk was awarded the Hero of Ukraine order.[117]​ On 14 May a Su-25 from 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade piloted by Captain Serhiy Parkhomenko was shot down in Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the pilot killed.[118]​[119]​

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## GrauGeist (Jul 16, 2022)

The SU-25's 30mm has 250 rounds.

The A-10's 30mm has nearly 1,200.

So...which one was said to be over rated?

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 16, 2022)

Wasn‘t the A-10 designed at the same time as the Soviet-era SAMs the Russians are using now? This IS the environment the A-10 is intended to fight in.


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## hawkeye2an (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Czech Mi-24 assault helicopters enter the fight in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian military confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received its first attack helicopters from the Czech Republic. According to Defense Express, recently received Mi-24V Hind armed assault helicopters, donated by the Czech government as part of its military support, were used...
> ...


Yes, but are they equiped with the latest Garmins?

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## buffnut453 (Jul 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Wasn‘t the A-10 designed at the same time as the Soviet-era SAMs the Russians are using now? This IS the environment the A-10 is intended to fight in.



Well, the "Soviet Era" spans 1918 thru 1991 which is a rather long time in technology development terms. 

The A-10 entered service in 1977. The SA-15 that we're seeing in Ukraine entered service a decade later. Thus the A-10 was designed to operate in the air defence environment of the SA-15's predecessor, the SA-8. Also, the SA-15 has been further developed after its entry into service to make it more capable. 

So, no, the A-10 was not designed to go up against the SAMs being used in Ukraine today.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 16, 2022)

The A-10s have gone through quite a few upgrades over the years, too.

To be realistic, anything that's designed to get down in the weeds will be putting itself in a high-threat environment.

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## ThomasP (Jul 16, 2022)

The thing to remember about the A-10 is that it was not designed to operate in a vacuum. It was supposed to operate in concert with top cover (ie fighters and interceptors) and SAM suppression platforms (ie Wild Weasel and other attack platforms). While the other platforms were at least contesting air supremacy, and suppressing and/or destroying the SAM systems, the A-10s would sledge-hammer the mobile ground forces.

There is no reason to think that the A-10 would not still be an effective platform under the current circumstances given the right support.

Having said all that, I say again:

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 16, 2022)

BRRRRAAAAAATHHHH

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## GrauGeist (Jul 16, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> House authorizes training for Ukrainian pilots to use US aircraft
> 
> 
> The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.
> ...



Woo hoo a new customer for the F-15EX. Keep that assembly line going.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> This would be sweet:
> 
> View attachment 677974



Yes, I would love to walk down to the paint booth and see one rolling out in that scheme.

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## Glider (Jul 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> House authorizes training for Ukrainian pilots to use US aircraft
> 
> 
> The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.
> ...


About time. Now Putin will really get worried as this has been the only ace in his pack where Ukraine have been unable to match them. Lets hope they also get the ECM to go with it.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

When the dust settles and Russia is cleared out of Ukraine (not a matter of if, but when), I see them becoming a NATO and EU member.

And as I've mentioned earlier, now is the time for Moldova and Georgia to act in expelling the Russians from their occupied territories.
With Russia's resources stretched thin and devoted to the war, they could easily sweep the Orcs out of their territory.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The thing to remember about the A-10 is that it was not designed to operate in a vacuum. It was supposed to operate in concert with top cover (ie fighters and interceptors) and SAM suppression platforms (ie Wild Weasel and other attack platforms).


Indeed. And today that would mean mobile and fixed SAMs are targeted by drone and satellite guided HIMARS before the A-10s arrive. MANPADS will still need to be accepted. But, us armchair generals aside, has anyone asked the Ukrainians if they want and can use the A-10?

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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

The A-10 is absolutely not available for export.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When the dust settles and Russia is cleared out of Ukraine (not a matter of if, but when), I see them becoming a NATO and EU member.


I agree. By then no other nation other than perhaps Israel will have such a massive contemporary combat experience in NATO weapons and systems. By the time they’re done the UAF will be teaching our forces. Yes, Ukraine will still have the issues with corruption and instability that precluded earlier attempts to join the EU, but removing Russia’s influence goes a long way to fixing that. And as long as he can stay alive, the NATO and EU loves Zelinskyy. If Ukraine can take back the Donbas there’s tons of natural gas and oil that can be offered to the EU as an incentive - which is Putin’s plan to prevent.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

When the Ukraine dumped Putin's puppet in 2014 because of the permeation of Kremlin lackeys and leaned toward the EU, Putin had to block it. Just like when Georgia applied to the EU as well as Moldova.

As long as Russia had an "enclave" in a particular nation, the EU (or NATO) wasn't going to accept that country's application (for obvious reasons).


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 17, 2022)

I’m now visiting Gdańsk, Poland and the pro-Ukraine sentiment is very strong here. Ukraine flags everywhere, and my guide telling me how proud they are to help Ukraine and how valuable they hold NATO. My wife, a Canadian born ethnic Ukrainian was happy to see it all.

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The A-10 is absolutely not available for export.


Who says that i wonder.


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## SaparotRob (Jul 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And as I've mentioned earlier, now is the time for Moldova and Georgia to act in expelling the Russians from their occupied territories.
> With Russia's resources stretched thin and devoted to the war, they could easily sweep the Orcs out of their territory.


We've read that Russian troops are made up mostly of conscripts from Russian vassal states and non cosmopolitan Russia. Should Georgia decide secede from the RU, I wonder what percentage of Russian troops in Ukraine might change sides.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> We've read that Russian troops are made up mostly of conscripts from Russian vassal states and non cosmopolitan Russia. Should Georgia decide secede from the RU, I wonder what percentage of Russian troops in Ukraine might change sides.


Here's a good artical about Georgia's sentiments regarding the war and their volunteer Legion in Ukraine.









Georgian MP says took up arms to fight 'common enemy' in Ukraine


When Russia sent troops into Ukraine in late February, Georgian lawmaker Aleko Elisashvili did not hesitate to rush to the country's defence, and within days was fighting in the battle for Irpin.




www.france24.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 17, 2022)

_
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thrown down the gauntlet for the U.S. and allies to help Kyiv bring an end to Russia's war by December. 

The imperative is to stop the bloodshed. Ukrainian forces are suffering as many as 200 casualties per day, and Russian artillery has killed dozens of civilians in recent attacks, with hundreds more injured. 

But Zelensky is also under pressure to keep the focus and support of the U.S. and Europe, allies that are being pulled away by domestic crises, including worsening inflation, exorbitant energy prices and fears of a global recession. 

Shifting political dynamics are also playing into Zelensky's calculus. 

Boris Johnson has promised the strong support of the United Kingdom despite his recent resignation as prime minister. In Italy, pro-Europe Prime Minister Mario Draghi is under attack over a debt crisis in the country. 

And in the U.S., Republicans are set to make gains in the November midterms, potentially strengthening a small but provocative group of GOP lawmakers who criticize America's support for Ukraine. 

Under these pressures, Zelensky is setting a six-month timeline to get as many heavy weapons to the country as possible and push back Russian forces battling low morale and exhausted manpower. 

"We can achieve a lot of things before the end of the year and we can stop this war," Zelensky said in an interview with CNN last week. 

"We are going to fight for every inch of our territory. It's clear that we can't get it all back," he said. _



https://thehill.com/policy/international/3561833-zelensky-challenges-world-to-help-end-russias-war-by-december/



There's quite a bit more of the article to read, but I stopped my selection where I did to highlight what may be an implication or signal that Ukraine would be willing to negotiate away some territory. I presume he means accepting the loss of Crimea?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 17, 2022)

This is why Russia cannot be allowed to win.






Artem Dmitriev gives the last salute to his daughter Liza, 4-year-old girl killed by Russian attack, in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, Sunday, July 17, 2022. Wearing a blue denim jacket with flowers, Liza was among 23 people killed, including two boys aged 7 and 8, in Thursday's missile strike in Vinnytsia. Her mother, Iryna Dmytrieva, was among the scores injured. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
ASSOCIATED PRESS

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 17, 2022)

There's talk also of declaring Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, which has pros and cons, apparently.

The main pro seems to be that it will induce even more sanctions by calling a spade a spade.

The main con seems to be that it will freeze all overseas Russian currency holdings, meaning they won't be available as a bargaining chip, or to be used helping to reconstruct Ukraine.

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## GTX (Jul 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The SU-25's 30mm has 250 rounds.
> 
> The A-10's 30mm has nearly 1,200.
> 
> So...which one was said to be over rated?



Don't forget the GAU-8 also has a much higher fire rate so needs to carry more. Either way though, people need to get over this almost phallic-like attraction to the A-10 and its gun. The fact remains that in a contested environment with both fighters and modern air defence systems (SAMs and guns), the A-10 would suffer very high losses.

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## J_P_C (Jul 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m now visiting Gdańsk, Poland and the pro-Ukraine sentiment is very strong here. Ukraine flags everywhere, and my guide telling me how proud they are to help Ukraine and how valuable they hold NATO. My wife, a Canadian born ethnic Ukrainian was happy to see it all.


sorry for weather  - Baltic coast is incredible when weather is slightly better than now

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## SaparotRob (Jul 17, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> sorry for weather  - Baltic coast is incredible when weather is slightly better than now


Don’t let it happen again. 
🙂

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Don't forget the GAU-8 also has a much higher fire rate so needs to carry more. Either way though, people need to get over this almost phallic-like attraction to the A-10 and its gun. The fact remains that in a contested environment with both fighters and modern air defence systems (SAMs and guns), the A-10 would suffer very high losses.



As would any ground attack aircraft, so who cares. 

I don’t think any infantry or armor units that are engaging the enemy would agree with you.

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## Glider (Jul 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When the dust settles and Russia is cleared out of Ukraine (not a matter of if, but when), I see them becoming a NATO and EU member.


I am reminded of a statement one of the Ukraine Leaders said about joining NATO. It basically went, whatever the future about joining NATO, if we are turned down, whatever excuse is used, don't ever say, that it was because we were not good enough.

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## Ovod (Jul 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed. And today that would mean mobile and fixed SAMs are targeted by drone and satellite guided HIMARS before the A-10s arrive. MANPADS will still need to be accepted. But, us armchair generals aside, has anyone asked the Ukrainians if they want and can use the A-10?



How would a HIMARS or M270 go about targeting and hitting mobile targets, such as mobile SAM systems?


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## SaparotRob (Jul 17, 2022)

Big Brother is watching... and telling all his *friends. *

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## Ovod (Jul 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> As would any ground attack aircraft, so who cares.



Most ground attack aircraft try to avoid shorter-ranged air defence systems with the use of various standoff weapons systems, AGM-65, for example. If you are going to use the A-10 in a standoff attack profile way what is the whole point of the A-10's unique features?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 17, 2022)

Ovod said:


> Most ground attack aircraft try to avoid shorter-ranged air defence systems with the use of various standoff weapons systems, AGM-65, for example. If you are going to use the A-10 in a standoff attack profile way what is the whole point of the A-10's unique features?



The point was that any ground attack aircraft will have a hard time surviving in contested airspace.


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## SaparotRob (Jul 17, 2022)

Check out Lazer Pig’s video “The A-10 sucks and I can prove it mathematically“. 
It’s about an hour of a drunken Scotsman ranting. Funny as all get out. You might also enjoy “Shut up about the F-35!”.
Full disclosure: I am Warthog fan boy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 17, 2022)

Ovod said:


> How would a HIMARS or M270 go about targeting and hitting mobile targets, such as mobile SAM systems?



I'm pretty sure the HIMARS has satellite guidance. Granted that that isn't perfectly real-time, it's pretty useful, I'd think. Drones could have a role as well. 

Having said that, I think the Ukrainians using the HIMARS/MLRS against supply facilities, generally immobile, is the smart money, because without fuel, you ain't moving, and without ammo, you ain't shooting.

Targeting supply depots will, aside from destroying resources, force the Russians to keep their depots further back, thus increasing the resource expenditure and attack-exposure of the elements bringing the supplies forward.

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## Ovod (Jul 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The point was that any ground attack aircraft will have a hard time surviving in contested airspace.



Well exactly, including the A-10 - so what has it got to offer? Bear in mind that what the Ukrainians are looking for in any future combat aircraft deliveries is a SEAD/DEAD capability, for which the A-10 would not be the first choice of aircraft with most air forces.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Don't forget the GAU-8 also has a much higher fire rate so needs to carry more. Either way though, people need to get over this almost phallic-like attraction to the A-10 and its gun. The fact remains that in a contested environment with both fighters and modern air defence systems (SAMs and guns), the A-10 would suffer very high losses.


Sorry if one's appreciation for the A-10's mission upsets you, but placing the Su-25 on a pedestal makes it easier to be knocked off.

The Su-25 is an aircraft designed to have guns installed.

The A-10 was a gun designed to fly.

The A-10's armor, redundant systems and electronics make it unique among combat aircraft. It may be an older design, but so is the F-15, F-16, B-52, etc., etc...

It's been posted elsewhere, but the A-10's loss rate during the Gulf War had a lower percentage for sorties than other types as well as a high pilot survival rate - which is most important.

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## Ovod (Jul 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm pretty sure the HIMARS has satellite guidance. Granted that that isn't perfectly real-time, it's pretty useful, I'd think. Drones could have a role as well.
> 
> Having said that, I think the Ukrainians using the HIMARS/MLRS against supply facilities, generally immobile, is the smart money, because without fuel, you ain't moving, and without ammo, you ain't shooting.
> 
> Targeting supply depots will, aside from destroying resources, force the Russians to keep their depots further back, thus increasing the resource expenditure and attack-exposure of the elements bringing the supplies forward.



All perfectly true. Mobile targets only get to stay mobile because they have steady supply of fuel. Basically it means that those targets which cannot be attacked directly can be attacked indirectly.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 17, 2022)

Ovod said:


> Well exactly, including the A-10 - so what has it got to offer? Bear in mind that what the Ukrainians are looking for in any future combat aircraft deliveries is a SEAD/DEAD capability, for which the A-10 would not be the first choice of aircraft with most air forces.



What does it have to offer? I think its proven its worth, especially when dealing with armoured columns. The aircraft is aging, but not “overrated” as some wish to believe.

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## J_P_C (Jul 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Don’t let it happen again.
> 🙂








one of my favorite places....

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## Glider (Jul 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What does it have to offer? I think its proven its worth, especially when dealing with armoured columns. The aircraft is aging, but not “overrated” as some wish to believe.


In addition to this the one big fear that I have (and no doubt others) is of a Soviet breakthrough in one area or another. Both sides are stretched and no doubt there are weak spots in both sides defences. 

Should a Russian breakthrough happen, then only aircraft can react with the speed and firepower needed to deal with such an event. Here the A10 would be perfect as it is likely that the attacking forces will outrun their medium / long range SAMs, and the portable short range SAMs would be disorganised. 
If the Ukraine breakthrough, then only aircraft will be able to support them for the same reason.

In the present almost stalemate situation then longer ranged stand off weapons will be needed and the F16 is well equipped to fulfil this role (depending on what version is supplied).

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## Dimlee (Jul 17, 2022)

In the meantime. Training of Ukrainian crews for Gepards has begun, most probably.


https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-mastering-the-gepard-spaag-in-germany/

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> In the meantime. Training of Ukrainian crews for Gepards has begun, most probably.
> 
> 
> https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-military-mastering-the-gepard-spaag-in-germany/


There must now be hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and airmen training with NATO units in Europe.


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## Dimlee (Jul 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There must now be hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and airmen training with NATO units in Europe.


The UK committed to training 10,000 at least.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 17, 2022)

_
KYIV, July 17 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday abruptly fired the head of Ukraine's powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.

The sackings of SBU chief Ivan Bakanov, a childhood friend of Zelenskiy, and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova, who has played a key role in the prosecution of Russian war crimes, were announced in executive orders on the president's website.


The firings are easily the biggest political sackings since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, forcing the entire Ukrainian state machine to focus on the war effort.

In a Telegram post, Zelenskiy said he had fired the top officials because it had come to light that many members of their agencies had collaborated with Russia, a problem he said had touched other agencies as well.

He said 651 cases of alleged treason and collaboration had been opened against prosecutorial and law enforcement officials, and that more than 60 officials from Bakanov and Venediktova's agencies were now working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied territories.


The sheer number of treason cases lays bare the huge challenge of Russian infiltration faced by Ukraine as it battles Moscow in what it says is a fight for survival._









Ukraine's president fires spy chief and top state prosecutor


President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday abruptly fired the head of Ukraine's powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.




www.reuters.com

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## at6 (Jul 17, 2022)

The main problem with exporting A-10s is how few there are left to send. Production really shouldn't have ceased as there has never been a suitable or cost efficient replacement.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> The main problem with exporting A-10s is how few there are left to send. Production really shouldn't have ceased as there has never been a suitable or cost efficient replacement.



Yeah, there are not to many available. We just started building new wings to keep the existing airframes airworthy.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> The main problem with exporting A-10s is how few there are left to send. Production really shouldn't have ceased as there has never been a suitable or cost efficient replacement.


The F-35 will fill the A-10's mission profile, but we'll have to wait and see how it works out.

Unless Putin does something stupid...well, let me rephrase that: unless Putin provokes NATO, then we'll get to see the F-35 go to work.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The F-35 will fill the A-10's mission profile, but we'll have to wait and see how it works out.
> 
> Unless Putin does something stupid...well, let me rephrase that: unless Putin provokes NATO, then we'll get to see the F-35 go to work.



That is one expensive replacement. Let us hope its capabilities are equally expen -- er, _expansive_. Hopefully the anticipated networked drones operating alongside it will be effective in these attacks, allowing the -35 to perform the strike-controller role it would seem to be good for doing.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 18, 2022)

The F-35 is literally a flying force multiplier and will be very capable of assuming the A-10's role, but in a 21st century fashion.
There is no question that the A-10 handled it's targets like wading into a bar-room brawl with a baseball bat, but the F-35 will be able to not only go into a high-threat environment, mapping targets for acquisition and engagement, but provide that information in real-time to other aircraft and ground units at the same time.

It's pretty much like we're seeing real life sci-fi that was only imagined a few decades ago.

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 18, 2022)

F-35 Helmet...

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## ThomasP (Jul 18, 2022)

re the A/OA-10

The US has had at least 1x A/OA-10C squadron in Europe since late-April.

All currently operational A/OA-10 (~170) have been upgraded to the C model, with the following upgrades:

LASTE (Low Altitude Safety & Targeting Enhancement). Provides Ground Collision Avoidance/Low Altitude Autopilot system, which includes the Enhanced Attitude Control system (for stability during gun firing and weapons drop). Includes integration of software for aid in navigation to, and location of target, and targeting via GPS coordinates.

EGI (Embedded GPS & Inertial Navigation System). Integrates improved GPS & INS within an on-board nav system.

IDM (Improved Data Modem) allows secure data link for transfer of data from ground units (primarily FO/FIST/FAC teams and SOF units), including data usable by the LASTE and EGI systems.

SADL (Situational Awareness Data Link).

LITENING ATP (Advanced Targeting Pod) capable. Pod incorporates Daylight and dual-wavelength FLIR HDTV, SADL & JTIDS compatible, Laser Designating/Marking/Multiple Spot Tracking.

Sniper ATP (Advanced Targeting Pod) capable. Pod incorporates Daylight and FLIR HDTV, Laser Designating/Marking/Spot Tracking, video data link compatible with SADL, and supports RTDI (Rapid Target Detection & Identification) and NTISR (Non-Traditional, Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance) via SADL.

RWR (Radar Warning Receiver).

MWS (Missile Warning System).

Can carry upto 240 chaff and 120 flare in onboard launchers.

HMCS (Helmet Mounted Cueing System). Day or Night capable.

In addition to the LITENING and Sniper pods, various ECM and specialized EW sensor pods can be carried, along with pods for chaff and flare.

Current Mission List
CAS (Close Air Support)
FAC-A (Forward Air Control-Airborne)
SCAR (Strike Control And Reconnaissance)
AI (Air Interdiction)
AM (Anti-Maritime)
CSAR (Combat Search And Rescue)

Current Weapons Capable List (upto 16,000 lbs in addition to GAU-8A cannon)
30mm GAU-8A gatling cannon
dumb bombs from 500 to 2000 lb including cluster bombs
smart bombs from 500 to 2000 lb, including 500 lb LGB & JTID to 2000 lb LGB & JTID
AGM-65 Maverick
AGM-154 JSOW
Hellfire/Brimstone/2.75" LGR
AIM-9 Sidewinder

In addition the A-10 has demonstrated compatibility with other weapons, such as the AGM-84 Harpoon and AGM-88 HARM (see "Best WW2 plane for Ukraine today?"). . . just to mention two.

Plus other stuff . . .

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## Glider (Jul 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the A/OA-10
> 
> The US has had at least 1x A/OA-10C squadron in Europe since late-April.
> 
> ...


Which is a long way of saying 'That will do nicely'

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## ThomasP (Jul 18, 2022)

yup.

The A/OA-10C is about as good you can get for air-to-ground work in Ukraine - short of giving them F-35s. You just need to make sure that they also have top cover.

Addition to above:

In my opinion, in practical terms probably even better for air-to-ground work than the F-35. The A/OA-10C can operate from rough airfields and roads, and they are relatively easy to maintain at the Squadron level. I do not know if the US Air National Guard still does it the same as they did 10-20 years ago, but back then they had 'packaged' Squadron level maintenance units that were setup to be easy to deploy along with the A/OA-10C Squadrons.

Now . . . whether this kind of system could be setup in the Ukraine is another question. But I can not see any less of a problem for any other type of front line US aircraft (ie F-15, F-16, F-18, F-35, etc).

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## buffnut453 (Jul 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The A/OA-10C is about as good you can get for air-to-ground work in Ukraine - short of giving them F-35s. You just need to make sure that they also have top over.



The Russian SAMs will also need to be suppressed. Now, I'll grant you that we're not seeing the type of integrated operations from the Russian Army that we expected and saw from the old Soviet Army. However, the SA-15 is a generation ahead of the SAMs the A-10 was designed to operate in and around, and the Russian MANPADS have come on leaps and bounds since 1977. 

There's probably no better pre-5th gen jet to take into the Ukrainian fight to do what the A-10 does....but it will still need to have supporting platforms in order to maximize its success.

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## ThomasP (Jul 18, 2022)

Agreed. But, and it is a significantly large but, for the heavy SAMs (mobile or otherwise) to be effective against low-flying aircraft they will have to be close to the front. And that means that A/OA-10s will be able to lob the AGM-88 HARM at the heavy SAMs with near impunity. The AGM-88 HARM of the early-2000s had an effective range of "over 30 miles" when launched from aircraft flying NOE, and "over 60 miles" when launched from medium altitudes. The newer variants have an even longer range - the latest operational variant has a range of "over 100 miles" from a medium altitude launch.

"The HARM missile can operate in three modes: pre-emptive, missile-as-a-sensor, and self-protect. In the pre-emptive mode the missile is fired before locking on the potential threat. Targeting is provided through pre-flight planning or cued via aircraft's sensors. The missile-as-a-sensor mode allows aircraft to use externally attached HARM missiles as a sensor (using its seeker) to locate radar emissions. Self-protect mode means the missile is fired to destroy threatening radar emissions."

The AGM-88D and later can be used to advantage with the A/OA-10C upgrades.

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## WARSPITER (Jul 18, 2022)

A 10 in the Gulf War.

Around 150 aircraft of the type available.
Around 8000 sorties.
Eight aircraft lost with others damaged.

Losses inflicted;

* 987 tanks *destroyed
* 2 Helicopters* (air-to-air aircraft) kills
* 501 Armor Personnel Carriers (APC) *destroyed
* 249 Command Posts (CP) *destroyed
* 11 Frog missile launchers *destroyed
* 281 Military structures *destroyed
* 96 Radar installations *destroyed
* 72 Bunkers *destroyed
* 9 SAM sites *destroyed
* 8 Fuel tanks *destroyed
* 2,000 other* military vehicles
* 1,306 trucks
53 SCUD* missiles and launchers
* 10 aircraft* on the ground destroyed

As for cost effectiveness, a Maverick infra red missile costs $70,000 or so and can wipe out a T-72. A T-72 costs $1,500,000.
The Russian intelligence unit (is that an oxymoron?) must be aware of this planes capability and must also not want to provoke a situation
where Russian forces face this aircraft plus the F35, let alone what the rest of NATO has. It would surely be lunacy.

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## GTX (Jul 18, 2022)

Europe is sweltering, but winter is coming — and Putin is in a race against time


The last two months have seen a different kind of war in Ukraine and both sides only have a few months before the onset of the northern winter and the battlefield changes again, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 18, 2022)

Europe feels the pain as the Kremlin's war drags on but, in the long run, Russians will pay a heavy price


Across Europe, signs of economic distress are multiplying across the continent as Russia's war in Ukraine drags on. However, in the long run, economists say Russia, while avoiding complete collapse, will pay a heavy price for its war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 18, 2022)

Russia Has Lost 50,000 Soldiers In Ukraine, U.K. Military Chief Says







www-rferl-org.cdn.ampproject.org

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## GTX (Jul 18, 2022)

'Zaporizhzhia Avenger' shoots down sixth Russian bomber


The 19-year-old National Guard soldier began his killing spree back in May and has now notched up six Russian bombers and one cruise missile, with Ukraine claiming the latest hit came on Sunday.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the A/OA-10
> 
> The US has had at least 1x A/OA-10C squadron in Europe since late-April.
> 
> ...



It'd be nice if there was a way I could award this post both "informative" and "winner" ... because it's both.

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## MiTasol (Jul 18, 2022)

there have been several posts of late in several threads that meet that standard

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 18, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> there have been several posts of late in several threads that meet that standard



A big reason why this has become a mainstay forum I visit. My own goal is simply to provide more info so that I can get in a few posts meeting that high standard myself ... still working on that part.


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## fubar57 (Jul 18, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> A big reason why this has become a mainstay forum I visit. My own goal is simply to provide more info so that I can get in a few posts meeting that high standard myself ... still working on that part.



You fit in just fine. 

As long as we learn it does not matter how much we individually contribute. Your contributions have been very good though.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 18, 2022)

It is the contributions of the collective that make this place great,

Wait, now I sound like Marx. Or was that the Borg?

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## MiTasol (Jul 18, 2022)

_It is the collective contributions that make this place great_, de-Marx's it and is equally true

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You fit in just fine.
> 
> As long as we learn it does not matter how much we individually contribute. Your contributions have been very good though.



I appreciate the kind words, but man, I'm keenly aware of how little I know here! It's why jokes are probably half my posts, lol. I may not post in the technical threads, but I sure as hell read them that interest me. I learn soooooo much.

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## WARSPITER (Jul 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I appreciate the kind words, but man, I'm keenly aware of how little I know here! It's why jokes are probably half my posts, lol. I may not post in the technical threads, but I sure as hell read them that interest me. I learn soooooo much.


I'll second that.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 19, 2022)

I now know more about the P-39 than is necessary.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 19, 2022)

You can’t make this shit up…









Russia Says It’s Losing Because Ukraine Has Experimental Mutant Troops Created in Secret Biolabs


MIGUEL MEDINANearly five months into its senseless war against Ukraine, Russia has concocted a wild new explanation for why the Kremlin’s plans for a quick takeover fell apart so spectacularly—because Ukrainian troops were turned into superhuman killing machines during “secret experiments” in...




www.yahoo.com

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## J_P_C (Jul 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You can’t make this shit up…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


russia is not a place but description of the special state of the mind - another thing confirming this

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 19, 2022)

Who is in charge of their Ministry of Information, the Weekly World News? 

Has Bat Boy escaped and joined the Ukrainian Army?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You can’t make this shit up…
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## GrauGeist (Jul 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You can’t make this shit up…
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## buffnut453 (Jul 19, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Who is in charge of their Ministry of Information, the Weekly World News?
> 
> Has Bat Boy escaped and joined the Ukrainian Army?
> 
> View attachment 678346



No, silly. The bat stories come out of China, not Ukraine. Remember this one?






Please try to keep up to date!

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The F-35 is literally a flying force multiplier and will be very capable of assuming the A-10's role, but in a 21st century fashion.


IDK, the A-10 could be lost, and as long as the pilot recovered the ship could be forgotten. On the other hand, every time an F-35 is lost the operators have to make every effort to recover the aircraft. If HMS Ark Royal (R09) lost a US-supplied Phantom over the side, it was left behind. But drop a F-35 over the side or otherwise crash one, you’d better go get it. If the tech is that valuable how can the US give them to the Ukrainians to fly over Russian held territory? It’s only a matter of time before one crashes somewhat intact and ends up in Russian (and China) hands.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 19, 2022)

I doubt seriously that the Ukraine AF will be receiving any F-35s in the near future.

The only way any F-35s would be operating over Ukraine airspace, is if Russia provokes NATO, and it'll be flown by it's native pilot.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> IDK, the A-10 could be lost, and as long as the pilot recovered the ship could be forgotten. On the other hand, every time an F-35 is lost the operators have to make every effort to recover the aircraft. If HMS Ark Royal (R09) lost a US-supplied Phantom over the side, it was left behind. But drop a F-35 over the side or otherwise crash one, you’d better go get it. If the tech is that valuable how can the US give them to the Ukrainians to fly over Russian held territory? It’s only a matter of time before one crashes somewhat intact and ends up in Russian (and China) hands.


Wasn’t there a massive security breach in which China got a lot of data on the F-35? The nose of the J-20 looks similar.


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## WARSPITER (Jul 19, 2022)

I would expect that since there is the capability for car manufacturers to disable a vehicle remotely should it be stolen then it is not
much of a jump for the makers of an F-35 to have remote capability to wipe the electrics of the plane in the same way.

It is even possible to have a remote destruct ability for the any of the onboard circuitry as well.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I would expect that since there is the capability for car manufacturers to disable a vehicle remotely should it be stolen then it is not
> much of a jump for the makers of an F-35 to have remote capability to wipe the electrics of the plane in the same way.
> 
> It is even possible to have a remote destruct ability for the any of the onboard circuitry as well.



Too many risks and flaws with that approach. Here are just a few:

1. The disable/self destruct capability malfunctions while the aircraft is being flown by a friendly pilot.
2. Adversaries can jam the disable/self destruct signal.
3. There's more intelligence to be gained regarding the F-35 than simply exploring the software. There are materials, structures, detailed design techniques etc.
4. Implementing a remote disable/self destruct capability increases the cyber threat to the weapon system, increasing risk that a hostile actor will hack it and be able to destroy/disable all F-35s everywhere.

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## GTX (Jul 19, 2022)

Not sure about the bent barrel:



But it appears to work:

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## GTX (Jul 19, 2022)



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## WARSPITER (Jul 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Too many risks and flaws with that approach. Here are just a few:
> 
> 1. The disable/self destruct capability malfunctions while the aircraft is being flown by a friendly pilot.
> 2. Adversaries can jam the disable/self destruct signal.
> ...


Reasonable worries for sure but the signal goes through a satellite system and is not by radio so hard to jam when you don't know it's coming.

A remote destruct system would also only be able to be set off, well, remotely which would also require a key coding in at least 128 bits which would be
matched to each individual aircraft. Not able to malfunction as such and could also be linked to the pilots system to ensure he/she is still functional so actually
disabling groups of F-35s would be impossible.

Number 3 is the worry though as physical damage must be done to the planes systems to render them unable to be reverse engineered. Chips as in ROM etc can be burnt out
using the correct system/s and they are the ones you want to make sure no one gets intact.

The only real worry for me is money. If someone in any air force which receives the F-35 is tempted or perhaps coerced then parts of the system may be handed over to
the wrong crowd. This kind of scenario is the worst as there is the possibility that the handover may not be known about. Still, that is the risk with anything like that.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 19, 2022)

GTX said:


>



I don't know if to laugh about Darth Putin tweet, be furious about the lies of the RTV or feel Pitt about those parents that maybe even belive that.

Probably the three of them but not sure of the dominant one

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## buffnut453 (Jul 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Reasonable worries for sure but the signal goes through a satellite system and is not by radio so hard to jam when you don't know it's coming.
> 
> A remote destruct system would also only be able to be set off, well, remotely which would also require a key coding in at least 128 bits which would be
> matched to each individual aircraft. Not able to malfunction as such and could also be linked to the pilots system to ensure he/she is still functional so actually
> ...



Errr...SATCOM still use radio frequency signals and, yes, they can be jammed (and, in fact, are jammed). Russia has SATCOM jammers like the Krasukha:









Krasukha (electronic warfare system) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





The other challenge with satellites is ensuring you're within the footprint of coverage. Operate outside them and your kill-switch won't work.

It doesn't matter what type of key coding you use, any aircraft system is capable of malfunction, which is why you have back-up systems. Digitally wiping systems of software always leaves traces, and it takes time to execute. Physical destruction is faster but it involves explosives (or other mechanical means) and they can go off unexpectedly.

Given the amount of computing power available (e.g. bitcoin mining), I have little faith that key-based security is invulnerable to hacking. The only way to stop external users accessing a system is to not connect critical components to the outside world. A kill switch would require such an external connection...and it would be a big prize for any hostile hacker.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 19, 2022)

_The ‘annexation playbook:’ Kirby, speaking from the White House briefing room, said that U.S. intelligence shows Russian plans to install “illegitimate” proxy officials in Ukraine and arrange “sham referendums” on becoming part of Russia. Russia is preparing to focus its efforts on Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and all of Donetsk and Luhansk, he said. 

Kirby likened the “annexation playbook” to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula, which triggered a wave of international sanctions. 

He added that the timeline of Russia’s annexation plans is unclear but that Moscow could put them in motion later this year, timed with regional elections. Russia’s war in Ukraine is about to enter its sixth month. 

Where the intelligence came from: Kirby told reporters Tuesday that the new assessment relied on both open-source information in the public domain and intelligence. 

Russia has already installed officials in areas of Ukraine it controls, including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and there has long been chatter that Russia could move to annex Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s east, where Moscow’s forces are currently focusing their military operations. 

Asked about what was new about the information he was citing on Tuesday, Kirby declined to provide specifics but insisted there would be a “concerted effort” by the part of Russia. _



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/overnights/3566506-defense-national-security-officials-warn-russia-plans-to-annex-more-territory/



Sounds like a good reason to extend sanctions indefinitely, to me.

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## at6 (Jul 19, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Poor little dead b*stard. Just proves what a society of douchebags they have there. The only real Fascists speak Russian and follow Der Putin.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> Poor little dead b*stard. Just proves what a society of douchebags they have there. The only real Fascists speak Russian and follow Der Putin.



When you buy the boat, you get the leaks, too. If you're not willing to die for your country, don't get draf uh, enlist.

They've gone beyond the evil of simply following orders from Moscow, from what I've read. The atrocities they've visited upon civilians came from somewhere more local.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They've gone beyond the evil of simply following orders from Moscow, from what I've read. The atrocities they've visited upon civilians came from somewhere more local.



Not necessarily. If Putin's orders were to depopulate Ukraine so the land could be backfilled by loyal Russians, then it very easily could result in the sorts of atrocities we've seen against civilians. 

One has to wonder, mind you, about the sort of society that creates soldiers willing to commit such crimes...unless, of course, it's like the Stalin years where you followed orders or were shot. Lead poisoning can be a mighty big incentive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not necessarily. If Putin's orders were to depopulate Ukraine so the land could be backfilled by loyal Russians, then it very easily could result in the sorts of atrocities we've seen against civilians.



Very true, and I stand corrected. It could be a case of inferred "orders" rather than explicit directives. The whole "Won't someone remove this stone from my shoe?" dog-whistling. 



buffnut453 said:


> One has to wonder, mind you, about the sort of society that creates soldiers willing to commit such crimes...unless, of course, it's like the Stalin years where you followed orders or were shot. Lead poisoning can be a mighty big incentive.



Governance in Russia has meant autocracy for many hundreds of years. You can't really underestimate the influence that has had not only on Russian society, but individual outlooks as well.

Of course, the USSR had guys like Solzhenitsyn and Sakharov, and modern Russia has lots of dissidents as well, so a definitive statement isn't going to be accurate. But I have to think that history of autocracy has to have left its stamp.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Governance in Russia has meant autocracy for many hundreds of years. You can't really underestimate the influence that has had not only on Russian society, but individual outlooks as well.
> 
> Of course, the USSR had guys like Solzhenitsyn and Sakharov, and modern Russia has lots of dissidents as well, so a definitive statement isn't going to be accurate. But I have to think that history of autocracy has to have left its stamp.



Sadly, it's what happens when you only read, or are fed, one perspective on an issue. That's why I'm so worried about things right now....people, somehow, have forgotten how to disagree in a civil manner. Any view that differs is "wrong" and the person who holds it is also "wrong" and therefore not worthy of consideration. It's not a giant leap from there to "enemies of the state."

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## GrauGeist (Jul 20, 2022)

Remember, Mother Russia is liberating the world of Nazis.

Just like the Nazis were liberating the world from Jews and Slavs.

When a government convinces it's public into dehumazing a race or group, then it becomes an acceptable practice.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's not a giant leap from there to "enemies of the state."



Which phrase has already been uttered by a President. Any time one hears that phrase, killings -- large and/or small -- *will* happen.

That's as far as I'm willing to discuss the matter publicly here. Respect for the rules, you get it.

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## WARSPITER (Jul 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Errr...SATCOM still use radio frequency signals and, yes, they can be jammed (and, in fact, are jammed). Russia has SATCOM jammers like the Krasukha:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Satellites can be jammed but it's chicken and egg in a way. F-35s and the like are made for blowing up such equipment. There are satellites which can use digital laser bursts to
send codes and don't use a radio signal.

As for large code breaking it takes a lot of computing power to do and with each aircraft having it's own code it would be extremely difficult even to crack one. After that you
would have to know what code to send as well.

NASA blocks literally thousands of attempts per day to enter it's systems, mostly made by one country with thousands of programmers working on the attempts.

I'm sure the US military has very good systems inlace and is always working on better ones. At least I hope they are otherwise it could be like the Enigma system
was for the Germans in WWII.

I agree it is an ongoing problem but should it enhance the capabilities of an aircraft to hit it's targets then it is a risk that has to be taken.


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## Dimlee (Jul 20, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I don't know if to laugh about Darth Putin tweet, be furious about the lies of the RTV or feel Pitt about those parents that maybe even belive that.
> 
> Probably the three of them but not sure of the dominant one


As a person of Russian ancestry I have one more feeling which is the dominant indeed... Shame. For the nation that has chosen the path of hatred and aggression.

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## Frog (Jul 20, 2022)

A case of oops ! Must have been registered as MH370.

*








Russia shoots down their own advanced jet just weeks after delivery


Russia took delivery on a handful of advanced Su-34M fighter bombers late last month, and one has already been shot down over Ukraine. It wasn't Ukrainian




www.sandboxx.us




*

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## at6 (Jul 20, 2022)

Frog said:


> A case of oops ! Must have been registered as MH370.
> 
> *
> 
> ...


The Russians finally did something right in the Ukraine.

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## Glider (Jul 20, 2022)

at6 said:


> The Russians finally did something right in the Ukraine.


No I disagree, it was simply part of the great plan that is still going exactly as envisioned.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 20, 2022)

Exactly, they're trying to kill Ukrainians with falling debris!

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## GTX (Jul 20, 2022)

Not a good look:















Putin praised for Ukraine invasion in meetings with Iranian and Turkish leaders


Iranian leader Ali Khamenei says Russia faced an attack from the NATO military alliance if it hadn't sent troops into Ukraine, mirroring Mr Putin's own justification for the war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 20, 2022)

Halt to peace talks continues, as Russia says its aims in Ukraine now go beyond eastern Ukraine


Holding peace talks with Ukraine made no sense right now says Russia, as Moscow signals plans to widen its military offensive to go beyond the eastern Donbas region.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 20, 2022)

Russia punishes Wikipedia for hosting 'fakes' on its invasion of Ukraine


The country's communications watchdog, Roskomnadzor, says Wikipedia links will be accompanied by a disclaimer warning users about legal violations by the Wikimedia Foundation.




www.abc.net.au

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## WARSPITER (Jul 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Not a good look:
> 
> View attachment 678487
> 
> ...


This is why any deals over oil with Iran are not a good idea.

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## GTX (Jul 20, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> This is why any deals over oil with Iran are not a good idea.


I have a bigger issue with Turkey.

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## GTX (Jul 20, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Jul 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Halt to peace talks continues, as Russia says its aims in Ukraine now go beyond eastern Ukraine
> 
> 
> Holding peace talks with Ukraine made no sense right now says Russia, as Moscow signals plans to widen its military offensive to go beyond the eastern Donbas region.
> ...


As tough as times are for him, it’s nice to see Lavrov still able to smile.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 20, 2022)

Frog said:


> A case of oops ! Must have been registered as MH370.
> 
> *
> 
> ...



Cool, I get to trot this out again:

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 20, 2022)

Paul Rubens' father was one of the first pilots in the Israeli AF, accomplished some pretty heroic stuff!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 20, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Paul Rubens' father was one of the first pilots in the Israeli AF, accomplished some pretty heroic stuff!



I had no idea -- any dirt on it?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 20, 2022)

_The U.S. will be sending Ukraine four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in another security assistance package to be announced later this week, Defense Secretary *Lloyd Austin* said Wednesday. 

In opening remarks at a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Austin said the incoming package will be the 16th drawdown of weapons from the Pentagon's inventory since August 2021. 

*The HIMARS' usefulness: *The U.S. first sent HIMARS around early June to allow the Ukrainians to more precisely strike targets from greater distances inside Ukraine. Both U.S. and Ukrainian officials have touted their effectiveness on the battlefield. 

Speaking to reporters later on Wednesday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said that more than 200 Ukrainians have been trained on the systems. 

The systems in the upcoming package would bring the number of launchers the U.S. has sent to 16. The U.S. has sent 12 thus far, most recently sending four in a $400 million assistance package announced on July 8. _

*Other countries stepping up: *_In his remarks, Austin touted other countries that have stepped up their support for Ukraine, such as the United Kingdom sending its own MLRS systems and Poland agreeing to transfer three battalions of 155mm self-propelled howitzers.

The Pentagon chief also thanked Norway for working with the U.S. to transfer two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, also known as Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems._



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/overnights/3568179-defense-national-security-us-to-send-ukraine-more-weapons/



And send more missiles!

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I had no idea -- any dirt on it?











Milton Rubenfeld - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 20, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Milton Rubenfeld - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good lord.

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## hawkeye2an (Jul 21, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Milton Rubenfeld - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very cool. Love that he and his wife were extras in Big Adventure

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## swampyankee (Jul 21, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Who says that i wonder.


iirc, there was an attempt to sell it to Thailand.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> iirc, there was an attempt to sell it to Thailand.



I'd think the terrain would be defense enough without any 'Hogs.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Not a good look:
> 
> View attachment 678487
> 
> ...


Erdogan don't look very healthly. Looks frail to me. Any idea Who could be the replacement?


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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 21, 2022)

For A-10 Fans

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## ThomasP (Jul 21, 2022)

Nanni!-Nanni! *Brrrrt-Brrrrt!*

The following is the de-classified version of a 2016 report provided by the GAO to the various Congressional committees involved in Defense decision making. It makes some very interesting points regarding keeping the A-10 in service.

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## J_P_C (Jul 21, 2022)

somewhere in Poland in the direction of Ukrainian border

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## ThomasP (Jul 21, 2022)

Russian f**k-tard "The famine begins now."

UAF reply "HIMARS nights begin now."

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 21, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Milton Rubenfeld - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...


WOW! I had no idea about that, thanks!

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## GrauGeist (Jul 21, 2022)

As useful as the A-10 would be in this situation, there really isn't enough time to transfer an effective number of the aircraft to Ukraine, train their pilots and ground crews plus build up stocks of maintenance parts and supplies.

I will admit that it would be satisfying to see it in action against the adversary that it was originally intended to engage.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 21, 2022)

More on the A-10.
This sentence surprised me:
_With regards to training demands, "thanks to prior military exchange programs, Ukraine already has a small number of pilots trained to fly the A-10,"_








Giving A-10 Warthogs To Ukraine Isn't Off The Table


Top U.S. Air Force officials have left the door open to the possibility of transferring some of the iconic Warthogs to Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 21, 2022)

If Ukraine is using Su-25’s then the A-10 is a step up. I base this on my research on the “Growling Sidewinder“ channel’s A-10 videos.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 21, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Paul Rubens' father was one of the first pilots in the Israeli AF, accomplished some pretty heroic stuff!


And an excellent sandwich.

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## GTX (Jul 21, 2022)

125+ days of Russian invasion of Ukraine on ten charts


Attrition warfare and demilitarisation from a data analyst’s perspective




medium.com

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## GTX (Jul 21, 2022)

Putin and Zelenskyy deny health rumours, with both blaming disinformation


The Kremlin says claims the Russian President is unwell are the work of foreign disinformation operatives. Volodmyr Zelenskyy says similar claims about his own health are the work of Russian cyber attacks.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Jul 21, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Milton Rubenfeld - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...











The Untold Story of U.S. Pilots Who Flew for Israel in 1948


A new documentary introduces the American volunteers who founded Israel’s first Air Force.




www.smithsonianmag.com












Pee-wee Herman's dad was one of Israel's top guns


Pee-wee Herman's dad was one of Israel's top guns




ew.com

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## GTX (Jul 21, 2022)

'Into the mouth of a bear': Ukrainian refugees being sent to Russia, their passports confiscated


Under a strategy laid out in Russian government documents, some Ukrainians are being transported to Russia's Far East, closer to Japan than Ukraine, and are being warned to tell nobody they want to return home.




www.abc.net.au

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## at6 (Jul 21, 2022)

Didn't Paul Rubens end up changing his name to Pee Pee Herman?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'Into the mouth of a bear': Ukrainian refugees being sent to Russia, their passports confiscated
> 
> 
> Under a strategy laid out in Russian government documents, some Ukrainians are being transported to Russia's Far East, closer to Japan than Ukraine, and are being warned to tell nobody they want to return home.
> ...



Shades of the Holomodor.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If Ukraine is using Su-25’s then the A-10 is a step up. I base this on my research on the “Growling Sidewinder“ channel’s A-10 videos.



The A-10 has a better design (engines above and partially shielded by twin tail-plates, which also provide redundancy), carries more weaponry, and has more armor. Roughly the same performance. Better avionics on the A-10 as well, not to mention the brrrrt factor.

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## Dimlee (Jul 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The A-10 has a better design (engines above and partially shielded by twin tail-plates, which also provide redundancy), carries more weaponry, and has more armor. Roughly the same performance. Better avionics on the A-10 as well, not to mention the brrrrt factor.


And in the current situation, more M&R capabilities and larger stock of spares, I assume. Ukrainian industry struggled to modify and upgrade the small fleet of Su-25 since 2014, I don't think that situation is better now.

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## Dimlee (Jul 21, 2022)

New UK's military assistance.








UK to send scores of artillery guns and hundreds of drones to Ukraine


Ben Wallace reveals latest British military support for Ukraine, including plans to send 50,000 artillery shells and hundreds more anti-tank weapons in the coming weeks.




www.gov.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> And in the current situation, more M&R capabilities and larger stock of spares, I assume. Ukrainian industry struggled to modify and upgrade the small fleet of Su-25 since 2014, I don't think that situation is better now.



Forgive my ignorance, but what do you mean with "M&R capabilities"? I've not encountered this acronym before.

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## Dimlee (Jul 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Forgive my ignorance, but what do you mean with "M&R capabilities"? I've not encountered this acronym before.


Sorry, maintenance and repair. From my days in the shipping industry.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Sorry, maintenance and repair. From my days in the shipping industry.



No sweat, just had no clue myself, thanks. I would imagine that M&R would bite even deeper on A-10s, then? Aside from maintenance-crew unfamiliarity, the fact that this gasket is SAE and not metric, or this bolt is 5/8" and not 13mm would probably be a maintenance headache.


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## buffnut453 (Jul 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin and Zelenskyy deny health rumours, with both blaming disinformation
> 
> 
> The Kremlin says claims the Russian President is unwell are the work of foreign disinformation operatives. Volodmyr Zelenskyy says similar claims about his own health are the work of Russian cyber attacks.
> ...



He's not ill...but he's DEFINITELY sick!

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The A-10 has a better design (engines above and partially shielded by twin tail-plates, which also provide redundancy), carries more weaponry, and has more armor. Roughly the same performance. Better avionics on the A-10 as well, not to mention the brrrrt factor.


But the SU-25 has one advantage…. it’s in service and readily available to the UAF. Our chatter on the A-10 on the other hand is purely hypothetical.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But the SU-25 has one advantage…. it’s in service and readily available to the UAF. Our chatter on the A-10 on the other hand is purely hypothetical.



Right, but the prospect has been floated publicly by the higher levels of NSC, the USAF desperately wants rid of the aircraft (and this will give them that off-ramp/fig-leaf), the Ukrainians apparently already have a few pilots trained on it, and this war will last longer than the training cycle, I suspect, meaning more Ukrainian pilots can be trained in the interim. We're apparently already training Ukrainian pilots on F-15s and -16s as well (top-cover?), which implies to me that this may well be a future tranche of aid to be announced.

Do it ASAP. The early bird gets the worm.


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## gumbyk (Jul 21, 2022)

Just when you write Erdogan off as a fan-boy, he gives putin a message...
Erdoğan keeps Putin waiting in awkward moment ahead of Tehran talks

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## Glider (Jul 21, 2022)

I know we are all talking about the A10, and in an ideal world the USA would be giving them to Ukraine as as tough bomb truck its unbeatable. But in the cold light of day logistics is going to be a significant factor. 
With that in mind I hope the concentrated effort will go on the F16. Its a very capable fighter and GA aircraft. There are probably hundreds sitting in the desert which can be brought back into service at little cost and they have been used by many countries around the world so access to spares should be easier. Also there are many countries who will be able to train the Ukraine air and ground crews.

No doubt the F15 is a better fighter and the A10 a better GA aircraft, but the F16 can do it all, and one type is a lot easier to support. In particular a single engine type

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## MiTasol (Jul 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Sorry, maintenance and repair. From my days in the shipping industry.



Same in aviation - we also use MRO for maint/repair/o'haul


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## buffnut453 (Jul 21, 2022)

Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief


In a rare public appearance, the UK secret intelligence service chief says Ukraine could hit back.



www.bbc.com

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## ThomasP (Jul 21, 2022)

Apropos of nothing (except it concerns the A-10), an enlargement of a section of photo by Peter Steehouwer - look carefully :

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## Crimea_River (Jul 21, 2022)

Sorry to interrupt this A-10 thread but this caught my eye this morning. There's some shit going to hit the fan methinks.

_Italian newspaper la Repubblica reported last week that Italian authorities had seized a U.S.-made, Russia-bound drone shipment. ....

The Americans were sufficiently spooked that an FBI team immediately flew from Washington to Gioia Tauro, la Repubblica reports.

The Canadian connection is that the newspaper reported the containers arrived from Canada._









John Ivison: Report of a drone sent to Russia points to holes in Ottawa's export ban


Italian newspaper la Repubblica reported last week that the containers had arrived from Canada




nationalpost.com

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## ThomasP (Jul 21, 2022)

It will be interesting to see who originated the shipment, and who arranged the logistics - one or both actors will be in serious trouble.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> but the F16 can do it all, and one type is a lot easier to support. In particular a single engine type


Agreed. If there’s one NATO strike aircraft the UAF need to replace its MiG-29s, SU-25s, 27s, et al it’s the F-16. It can do it all, and allows knowledge and logistics sharing with other new F-16 operators nearby, such as Poland. I expect we’ll see the first squadrons in the UAF before Christmas.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> It will be interesting to see who originated the shipment, and who arranged the logistics - one or both actors will be in serious trouble.


Agreed. The ambiguity of shipping container contents has always been an issue in Canada, and globally. I’m in the shipping biz and no one ever opens our containers to verify that the contents match the declarations. That’s how most high end stolen cars in Canada end up in Africa.

Now, how do we stop drones from Iran or China?









Iran responds to US claims of drone shipments to Russia


Tehran has denied it has any plans to send UAVs to Russia after the US claimed hundreds of drones would be sent Read Full Article at RTcom




www.bignewsnetwork.com

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## J_P_C (Jul 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> I know we are all talking about the A10, and in an ideal world the USA would be giving them to Ukraine as as tough bomb truck its unbeatable. But in the cold light of day logistics is going to be a significant factor.
> With that in mind I hope the concentrated effort will go on the F16. Its a very capable fighter and GA aircraft. There are probably hundreds sitting in the desert which can be brought back into service at little cost and they have been used by many countries around the world so access to spares should be easier. Also there are many countries who will be able to train the Ukraine air and ground crews.
> 
> No doubt the F15 is a better fighter and the A10 a better GA aircraft, but the F16 can do it all, and one type is a lot easier to support. In particular a single engine type


F16 in compare to A10 is really difficult to support machine with quite sophisticated ground support system requirements, single F100 or F110 engine versus two TF34 really does no matter.


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## J_P_C (Jul 22, 2022)

something i just noticed - if military operation will be keep by russians untill end of August probably their number of casulties during 6 month of agression will exceed number of cassulties US had during whole Wietnam war.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The A-10 has a better design (engines above and partially shielded by twin tail-plates, which also provide redundancy), carries more weaponry, and has more armor. Roughly the same performance. Better avionics on the A-10 as well, not to mention the brrrrt factor.


Plus, the savings on weight and cost by not requiring an external Garmin GPS

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief
> 
> 
> In a rare public appearance, the UK secret intelligence service chief says Ukraine could hit back.
> ...


ISW is in line too.

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## J_P_C (Jul 22, 2022)

unconfirmed information - 2000 orcs have been encircled in Kherson region by UA troops.

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## Glider (Jul 22, 2022)

I do hope this is true but there have been false expectations before and no doubt more to come

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## ThomasP (Jul 22, 2022)

If true, it will be interesting to see how much effort the Russians and separatists put into relieving the surrounded troops - and how much damage they take in the attempt.

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## Glider (Jul 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> If true, it will be interesting to see how much effort the Russians and separatists put into relieving the surrounded troops - and how much damage they take in the attempt.


The other acid test is how long they hold out for. To hold out for long when surrounded takes a significant amount of courage and willingness to accept a huge amount of pressure both physically and mentally. 

If your starting point in Morale terms is low then things can go south very quickly

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 22, 2022)

_
LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Friday its forces had destroyed four U.S.-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) in Ukraine earlier this month.

Between July 5-20, "four launchers and one reloading vehicle for the U.S.-made multiple launch rocket systems (HIMARS) were destroyed," it said in a daily briefing.

Kyiv rejected Moscow's claims, calling them "fakes" designed to undermine the West's support for Ukraine.


Reuters could not verify battlefield reports._









Russia says it destroyed 4 HIMARS launchers, in claim denied by Ukraine


Russia's defence ministry said on Friday its forces had destroyed four U.S.-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) in Ukraine earlier this month, a claim that was denied both by Kyiv and Washington.




www.reuters.com





If Russia reported that the Sun rises in the east, I'd set my alarm early to confirm or deny.

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## ThomasP (Jul 22, 2022)

The UAF have begun to interdict supply lines in the south. They severely damaged the Antonivsʹkyy Mist (Antonivsʹkyy bridge) over the Dnipro river (I think on the 19th) to the point where it is closed to normal traffic.

"Antonivsʹkyy Mist · E97, Khersons'ka oblast, Ukraine"

There was a very nice photo of the damage broadcast by a Russian TV channel but it was taken down before I could download it. There was a graphic made from the photo showing the pattern of strikes, that I downloaded:






The UAF also blew up another ammo depot on the night of the 18-19th, this time in Nova Kakhovka (about 50 km up-river from Kherson).

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## GTX (Jul 22, 2022)

Ukraine moves fresh brigades to Donbas - MilitaryLand.net


Ukrainian command has decided to deploy additional troops to Donbas, signaling a possible rotation of Ukrainian units. A long over-due rotation of Ukrainian units stationed in Donbas might be underway. The command of Armed Forces of Ukraine has begun to deploy newly formed brigades to the...



militaryland.net

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## Dimlee (Jul 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. The ambiguity of shipping container contents has always been an issue in Canada, and globally. I’m in the shipping biz and no one ever opens our containers to verify that the contents match the declarations. That’s how most high end stolen cars in Canada end up in Africa.
> 
> Now, how do we stop drones from Iran or China?
> 
> ...


Throughout my career in container shipping, container checks remained very rare, except for specific periods as after 9/11 and in some places near war zones. Inspections are costly, shipping lines hate them since it's hard to convince the customer to cover the costs of several hundred dollars per box. Sometimes, even several thousand.
Drones are not the worst things that can be hidden in a container, unfortunately. Club K system has been known for years...

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## Dimlee (Jul 22, 2022)

Zelensky provided an update on Ukrainian daily military losses: _"some 30 fatalities a day and around 250 wounded"_








WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine’s Zelensky Says a Cease-Fire With Russia, Without Reclaiming Lost Lands, Will Only Prolong War


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview acknowledged the cost exacted by Russia’s invasion on Western businesses and consumers, and he praised the country’s allies for continuing to enable Ukrainian resistance against a much more powerful foe.




www.wsj.com

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Throughout my career in container shipping, container checks remained very rare, except for specific periods as after 9/11 and in some places near war zones. Inspections are costly, shipping lines hate them since it's hard to convince the customer to cover the costs of several hundred dollars per box. Sometimes, even several thousand.
> Drones are not the worst things that can be hidden in a container, unfortunately. Club K system has been known for years...


Club k Container missile system Club-K | Rosoboronexport

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## buffnut453 (Jul 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Throughout my career in container shipping, container checks remained very rare, except for specific periods as after 9/11 and in some places near war zones. Inspections are costly, shipping lines hate them since it's hard to convince the customer to cover the costs of several hundred dollars per box. Sometimes, even several thousand.
> Drones are not the worst things that can be hidden in a container, unfortunately. Club K system has been known for years...



More ports need to install systems like VACIS (sorry for the marketing video (I'm not connected with Leidos) but it provides a good indication of the capability:

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## at6 (Jul 22, 2022)

Any drone seized in route to Russia should be diverted to the Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 22, 2022)

at6 said:


> Any drone seized in route to Russia should be diverted to the Ukraine.



... and then delivered to Russia, if you know what I mean.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 22, 2022)

More evidence of surrounded Russians

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## GrauGeist (Jul 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> More evidence of surrounded Russians



Considering how the Russians have treated Ukranian POWs, this should come as no surprise to the Russians - you get what you give.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Considering how the Russians have treated Ukranian POWs, this should come as no surprise to the Russians - you get what you give.



Not to mention that Russia refused any request to evacuate Ukrainian soldiers from Mariupol. Karma sucks!

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 23, 2022)

It seems there are conflicting reports about the encirclement.



Notice the *almost *surrounded here


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## GrauGeist (Jul 23, 2022)

I'm liking the term "eradicated"...

Слава Украйна !

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## at6 (Jul 23, 2022)

Exterminate the infestation.

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## Dimlee (Jul 23, 2022)

No ATACMS for Ukraine so far.

From about 18 min.


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## Dimlee (Jul 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More ports need to install systems like VACIS (sorry for the marketing video (I'm not connected with Leidos) but it provides a good indication of the capability:



There are scanning systems at many terminals but charges are surprisingly high. Up to USD 500 per container at DPW terminal in Constanta as reported in April.

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## Glider (Jul 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> More evidence of surrounded Russians



Thinking back to what I recently said about how long the Russian forces would hold out for, and that being a measure of the level of their morale. To be asking for a safe or green corridor before they are even completely surrounded, implies that things are not good for Putin and his allies.

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## GTX (Jul 23, 2022)

Russia attacks Ukrainian port a day after signing deal to unblock Black Sea trade routes


Russian missiles have hit Ukraine's southern port of Odesa, the Ukrainian military says, threatening a landmark deal signed just a day before to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports and ease global food shortages caused by the war.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia attacks Ukrainian port a day after signing deal to unblock Black Sea trade routes
> 
> 
> Russian missiles have hit Ukraine's southern port of Odesa, the Ukrainian military says, threatening a landmark deal signed just a day before to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports and ease global food shortages caused by the war.
> ...

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> I do hope this is true but there have been false expectations before and no doubt more to come


Indeed, for starters, I’m reading it‘s more likely 200 Russians rather than 2,000.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 23, 2022)

One problem the Russians are ultimately going to have is that they will run out of gas storage and have to start capping wells and reducing production at some point. Unlike oil, they can't just ship it by boat; they lack the infrastructure to liquify it. Once their storage is full they don't have a fallback position.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One problem the Russians are ultimately going to have is that they will run out of gas storage and have to start capping wells and reducing production at some point. Unlike oil, they can't just ship it by boat; they lack the infrastructure to liquify it. Once their storage is full they don't have a fallback position.



Their fallback position will be "stop supporting Ukraine or we'll greenhouse the Earth with spare methane".


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## ThomasP (Jul 24, 2022)

Large amounts of various types of glass makes for good well caps/stoppers. Plus, the methods used to produce the large amounts of glass would theoretically go a long way to reducing the global temperatures.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 24, 2022)

Last Stand at Azovstal: Inside the Siege That Shaped the Ukraine War


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## buffnut453 (Jul 24, 2022)

Ukraine war: Kyiv's forces moving towards occupied Kherson - Zelensky


Kherson city has been in the hands of Russian troops since the early days of the war.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: Kyiv's forces moving towards occupied Kherson - Zelensky
> 
> 
> Kherson city has been in the hands of Russian troops since the early days of the war.
> ...



From your link:

_
Meanwhile, a senior defence adviser to Mr Zelensky claimed that around 1,000 Russian troops in the region have been encircled by Ukrainian forces.

Oleksiy Arestovych said the Russians had been caught in a "tactical encirclement" near the village of Vysokopillya in Kherson oblast. The BBC has not independently verified this claim._


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 24, 2022)

_
July 23 (Reuters) - Heavy fighting has been taking place in the last 48 hours as Ukrainian forces continued their offensive against Russia in Kherson province, west of the Dnipro River, British military intelligence said on Saturday.

Russian forces are using artillery fire along the Ingulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro, the UK's Ministry of Defence said.

"Supply lines of the Russian forces west of the river are increasingly at risk," the ministry said in an intelligence update.


It added that additional Ukrainian strikes have caused further damage to the key Antonivsky Bridge, though Russia has conducted temporary repairs._









UK says Ukraine continues offensive against Russia in Kherson


Heavy fighting has been taking place in the last 48 hours as Ukrainian forces continued their offensive against Russia in Kherson province, west of the Dnipro River, British military intelligence said on Saturday.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _It added that additional Ukrainian strikes have caused further damage to the key Antonivsky Bridge, though Russia has conducted temporary repairs._


Why is that bridge still standing? It must be a critical target.

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## ThomasP (Jul 24, 2022)

My bet would be that the Ukrainians do not want to actually destroy it. The RF mined the bridge [for demolition] on the 2nd or 3rd day of the war, in case they could not hold the Kherson side of the river and had to stop the UAF from following them during a retreat. The psychological threat of its destruction is significant in terms of eliminating the escape routes for the RF.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 24, 2022)

The bridge being constantly repaired is also consuming manpower that is much needed elsewhere.

I agree that it's not being destroyed on purpose. The Ukrainians have proven to be very accurate in the destruction of other bridges, this bridge could easily be taken out and I suspect will be if the situation warrants it.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 24, 2022)

Oh, boy. I don't know that this is for real, but I find it all too easy to believe:


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## J_P_C (Jul 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh, boy. I don't know that this is for real, but I find it all too easy to believe:



hard to believe how complex technological process needs to be used to create such piece of hardware


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why is that bridge still standing? It must be a critical target.



The heaviest warhead any MLRS rocket carries is 500-lb penetrating HE, but because they're on the longest-ranged variant, Ukraine likely doesn't have them. It would still probably take multiple hits to drop the bridge.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh, boy. I don't know that this is for real, but I find it all too easy to believe:



And yet with such rubbish hardware the Russians hold 20% of Ukrainian territory. Good enough is good enough.


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet with such rubbish hardware the Russians hold 20% of Ukrainian territory. Good enough is good enough.


No it isnt. Gains are payed in blood and losses of material. Remember 3:1. Russia will not run out of men just yet but it will on hardware. That was not the glorious plan. And winter will come. Souds familiar? They are not soviets not even by a long shot. Gains without depth are dangerous. Ask Paulus.

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## Glider (Jul 24, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> No it isnt. Gains are payed in blood and losses of material. Remember 3:1. Russia will not run out of men just yet but it will on hardware. That was not the glorious plan. And winter will come. Souds familiar? They are not soviets not even by a long shot. Gains without depth are dangerous. Ask Paulus.


I think that in some major ways Russia is running out of men. Not in the physical actual number of people in the population, of even the number who qualify as being in the reserves, but in the number he can actually use.
It looks as if those in the occupied areas are being bled dry. There are all sorts of forced conscription being used and people having papers confiscated and then enlisted. There are a lot of people from fairly remote areas of Russia being enticed into the forces due to the lack of other opportunities to earn money. They are also paying a heavy price and people are started to complain.
Comparatively very few of the people serving and being killed or wounded in the fighting have some from the large cities. It's only a guess I know but I think that he knows that if he tried to use these population areas for recruits, then his reign will be in severe trouble. They tend to be more liberal and have more access to technology.
There has to be a reason why he has done everything he can to avoid enlisting people from these districts and that's my guess as to why

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## MiTasol (Jul 24, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh, boy. I don't know that this is for real, but I find it all too easy to believe:




Very likely to be real. It all comes down to the inspectors at the end of each process. 

If you want a good example of how bad some companies inspection processes are find the ATSB report on the A380 engine failure near Singapore. The faulty Rolls Royce engine oil tube that caused that was WAY more off centre than that gun barrel.



Investigation: AO-2010-089 - In-flight uncontained engine failure Airbus A380-842, VH-OQA, overhead Batam Island, Indonesia, 4 November 2010



It is worth reading the whole report to see how close they came to a fuel and electrical fire inside the wing and other catastrophic situations. It is also worth noting that the RR Trent continues to have oil leaks and the RR records are not that crash hot. 



Safety investigations & reports



One would expect the most basic visual inspection would note that the wall thickness varied from 1.42 to 0.348 and that the hole was way off centre.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 24, 2022)



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## Greg Boeser (Jul 24, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> It will be interesting to see who originated the shipment, and who arranged the logistics - one or both actors will be in serious trouble.


We came across stuff like this all the time when I was in Iraq. The UN "Oil for Food" program was rife with corruption.
Plus, Turkey and Syria and Iran weren't exactly trustworthy partners. Never mind Russia or France.

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## J_P_C (Jul 25, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Jul 25, 2022)

First Gepards are in Ukraine according to local sources. 

Total order is 30 and the problem with ammunition production was reported as resolved.
Hopefully, they will help to shoot some cruise missiles.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> First Gepards are in Ukraine according to local sources.
> 
> Total order is 30 and the problem with ammunition production was reported as resolved.
> Hopefully, they will help to shoot some cruise missiles.



...and look cool while doing it.

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## Crimea_River (Jul 25, 2022)

Well I hope the Russians don't find a way to remove Zelenskiy and replace him with a friendly puppet. A dowry of Western arms would bring a smile to Putler's mug.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 25, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Well I hope the Russians don't find a way to remove Zelenskiy and replace him with a friendly puppet. A dowry of Western arms would bring a smile to Putler's mug.



I wonder how long said "friendly puppet" would last in power ...

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## Crimea_River (Jul 25, 2022)

True.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Well I hope the Russians don't find a way to remove Zelenskiy and replace him with a friendly puppet.


The window for that has closed. The national mood is firmly anti Russian. Certainly Zelenskyy can be killed, but Ukraine isn’t a Russian-like autocracy or dictatorship - there is no metaphorical head of the snake to cut off. Ukraine has a functioning democratic government. Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliamentary body, and a close ally of Zelenskyy would take office if Zelenskyy was unable to perform his duties, with limited powers as "acting president" until a new election is conducted. If both these guys die, then Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will administer the state until the President and chairman are replaced. There is an established succession process - no Russian puppet is getting in again - 2014’s expulsion of Putin’s man Viktor Yanukovych saw to that.

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## Crimea_River (Jul 25, 2022)

What about the heads of the military?


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> What about the heads of the military?


Unlike the UAF and its successfully targeting of over a dozen generals, the Russians seem to be purely inept at liquidating their opposing generals.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Valerii Zaluzhnyi looks pretty solid.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>



Nice! Now, how about those Polish MiG-29s from April?









What Is Special About Polish PT-91 Twardy Tanks, which Ukraine Is About to Receive | Defense Express


And is it necessary to put additional armor on these tanks before sending them to the front there’s already been information that Poland is preparing to hand over to Ukraine about 230 tanks of the PT-91 Twardy




en.defence-ua.com

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## GTX (Jul 25, 2022)

Lavrov declares Russia's aim is to overthrow Zelenskyy


Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov describes Ukraine's government as "anti-people and anti-historical", accusing Kyiv and its Western allies of turning Ukraine into the "eternal enemy of Russia".




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Jul 25, 2022)

It seems to me, that invading another country and killing it's people is most likely the basis of creating an "eternal enemy" more than anything else...

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## SaparotRob (Jul 25, 2022)

Talk about a bad review.

Guess he bombed in Moscow.

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## GTX (Jul 25, 2022)

Russia wants international tribunal to condemn Ukrainian soldiers for crimes against humanity


Moscow charges 92 members of the Ukrainian armed forces with crimes against humanity and proposes an international tribunal backed by countries including Bolivia, Iran and Syria.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Jul 25, 2022)

And I want cigarettes to not only be good for you, but five cents a pack too!

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia wants international tribunal to condemn Ukrainian soldiers for crimes against humanity
> 
> 
> Moscow charges 92 members of the Ukrainian armed forces with crimes against humanity and proposes an international tribunal backed by countries including Bolivia, Iran and Syria.
> ...


Bolivia? Why the heck would they want to attract the ire of the US. All of Latam, even Venezuela is staying on the friendly side of Washington. This is the first time since WW2 that we’ve had a clear conventional state vs state war between good and evil - you don’t want to be on the wrong side when the dust settles.

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## GTX (Jul 25, 2022)

A new deal between Ukraine and Russia may show a path to the end of the war


While the Russian attack on Odesa is hardly an auspicious beginning and is indicative of the lack of trust between the belligerents, there are some important takeaways from the agreement, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Bolivia? Why the heck would they want to attract the ire of the US. All of Latam, even Venezuela is staying on the friendly side of Washington. This is the first time since WW2 that we’ve had a clear conventional state vs state war between good and evil - you don’t want to be on the wrong side when the dust settles.


Because Bolivia was drunk at the time. Dont blame them it was so ridiculous they thought it was carnaval again. First court of law rumba girls and boys will be in the stands swinging and working their pom poms.

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## GTX (Jul 25, 2022)

Ukraine receives first batch of German Gepard air defense systems


Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov has confirmed the country took delivery of three German short-range air defense systems. "Today, the first three Gepards officially arrived. These are anti-aircraft systems, to which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to...




defence-blog.com

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## J_P_C (Jul 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice! Now, how about those Polish MiG-29s from April?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


in Ukraine since mid of May. Polish MOD just announced surprise deal with KAI related FA-50 in block 20 standard delivery

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> in Ukraine since mid of May. Polish MOD just announced surprise deal with KAI related FA-50 in block 20 standard delivery


Nice, someone will need to update this wiki section.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice, someone will need to update this wiki section.


Look to the bottom of the page and find the "last edited" link.
There's an "edit war" going on.
Typically wiki contributors have "nicks", but whoever keeps changing the information is only identified by an IP address, which makes it pretty obvious as to whom is altering the info.

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## MiTasol (Jul 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The window for that has closed. The national mood is firmly anti Russian. Certainly Zelenskyy can be killed, but Ukraine isn’t a Russian-like autocracy or dictatorship - there is no metaphorical head of the snake to cut off. Ukraine has a functioning democratic government. Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliamentary body, and a close ally of Zelenskyy would take office if Zelenskyy was unable to perform his duties, with limited powers as "acting president" until a new election is conducted. If both these guys die, then Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will administer the state until the President and chairman are replaced. There is an established succession process - no Russian puppet is getting in again - 2014’s expulsion of Putin’s man Viktor Yanukovych saw to that.



And Zelenskyy has just removed a bunch of pro Putin deputies who probably hoped they could grab his job with Putin's support

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## at6 (Jul 25, 2022)

Now She Drink Pee of China wants the Ukraine to hold peace talks with Orcland. Me thinks that the Beijing bast+rd babies are worried about the Ukrainian people achieving victory.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 25, 2022)

at6 said:


> Now She Drink Pee of China wants the Ukraine to hold peace talks with Orcland. Me thinks that the Beijing bast+rd babies are worried about the Ukrainian people achieving victory.



It sure undercuts China's "official" neutrality.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 26, 2022)

Guaranteed that China is watching how this is playing out.

They're still lusting after Taiwan, but with Russia taking a beating and Ukraine being supported by most of the world, they're going to need to update/rethink their risk assessment.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Guaranteed that China is watching how this is playing out.
> 
> They're still lusting after Taiwan, but with Russia taking a beating and Ukraine being supported by most of the world, they're going to need to update/rethink their risk assessment.


If China expands its support of Russia it’s only a matter of time before Ukraine joins the seventeen nations (plus the Vatican) that formally recognize Taiwan. In fact there could be a wave of such action worldwide.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 26, 2022)

Slovakia ready to transfer MiG-29 to UAF. And a bunch of other stories:









Ukraine Situation Report: Slovakia Ready To Make A Deal For Its MiG-29s


As new weapon systems continue to arrive in Ukraine, it is still in need of additional fighters and Slovakia says it is ready to make a deal.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Guaranteed that China is watching how this is playing out.
> 
> They're still lusting after Taiwan, but with Russia taking a beating and Ukraine being supported by most of the world, they're going to need to update/rethink their risk assessment.



I've read quite a few articles reporting on how the Taiwanese, too, are watching this unfold, with an eye to learning how to repel a Chinese invasion.

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 26, 2022)

I do not see the simularity in situation.


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## vikingBerserker (Jul 26, 2022)

Taiwan would be one hell of an airborne/amphibious operation.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 26, 2022)

"Chinese ship, go f**k yourself"

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 26, 2022)

Wear starts to show off




Do Russians have spare barrels?

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 26, 2022)

Maybe that's related

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## SaparotRob (Jul 26, 2022)

Check the tires.


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## GTX (Jul 26, 2022)

Odesa apartments destroyed during latest Russian attacks in Ukraine


Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists that Moscow is ready to hold talks with Ukraine on ending the war, claiming that Kyiv's Western allies oppose a deal.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 26, 2022)

'The money is gone': Evacuated Ukrainians forced to return home to war's front line


Tens of thousands of people from eastern Ukraine return to their rural or industrial communities close to the front line at considerable risk because they can't afford to live in safer places.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 26, 2022)

And somewhat tangentially related:









Russia will leave the International Space Station at end of 2024


Amid soaring tensions with Western nations Russia announces it will leave the International Space Station at the end of 2024.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 26, 2022)

And a somewhat positive story:

Volodymyr Zelensky's wife Olena tells Piers Morgan the Ukraine war has made their marriage stronger

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 26, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I do not see the simularity in situation.



It's more socio-political than material (infusing the population with a willingness to fight it out), but the Taiwanese are also looking at how the Ukrainians are leveraging asymmetric warfare tactics in combination with hi-tech tactical solutions to fight a behemoth to a problem-corner. And as noted above, the Taiwanese have a significant advantage in that there must first be a successful amphibious assault.

I like that they're not being complacent. There's been some significant changes in Taiwanese public opinion regarding a Chinese invasion, too, as a result of seeing Ukrainian bravery in action.

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## GTX (Jul 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And as noted above, the Taiwanese have a significant advantage in that there must first be a successful amphibious assault.


Or arguably a successful air/sea blockade which is where I suspect Chinese strategy is more targeted.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Or arguably a successful air/sea blockade which is where I suspect Chinese strategy is more targeted.



That might be the case, but I think it could arouse the international community earlier. If the USA or a combination of allies including Australia decide to run the blockade, the onus is then on the Chinese to shoot first, and thereby remove the patina of innocence. And even if it turns into a standoff, that allows political wheels worldwide to turn, in order to engender more support for Taiwan.

I don't think the Chinese will choose that option because it will telegraph any impending move and put them on the back foot.

Also, under international law, a blockade is an act of war, and liable to military response. And while Taiwan is no superpower, it could certainly put a hurtin' on any blockading -- as well as any forthcoming invading -- forces. In other words, the Chinese will be risking forces before any shooting begins.

In the end, it boils down to whether Biden's assurances are solid or not. Keep in mind that America is not only reassuring Taiwan with those words, but also other Far East allies. An American failure to support Taiwan would spell the end of American security assurances for both Japan and South Korea as well, which would obviously widen the Far East arms race.

So I believe that America would broach any declared blockade. The failure to do so would be to accept defeat without a shot, not only in Taiwan, but in the Far East as a whole. Munich redux, really.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 26, 2022)

Best you all get to your nuclear shelters. WW3 is about to start:









Russia declares Guernsey an 'unfriendly state'


A senior Guernsey politician says: "Clearly little Guernsey's sanctions are beginning to bite."



www.bbc.com





Remember...you heard it here first!

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## ThomasP (Jul 27, 2022)

On the one hand I want to laugh, on the other I want to applaud. Go Guernsey! 🤣 &

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Jul 27, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> On the one hand I want to laugh, on the other I want to applaud. Go Guernsey! 🤣 &


You see where Russia added the Isle of Man to their list of hostile nations?

If it weren't for the severity of the situation in Ukraine, all this sniveling, whining, finger pointing and list waving by Russia would be a comedy of epic proportions.

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## at6 (Jul 27, 2022)

The Orclanders must be hurting somewhere when they notice tiny little islands.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 27, 2022)

at6 said:


> The Orclanders


That's a win!

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## XBe02Drvr (Jul 27, 2022)

at6 said:


> The Orclanders must be hurting somewhere when they notice tiny little islands.


...like in their tiny little gonads?

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## XBe02Drvr (Jul 27, 2022)

Russian 2S7M suffered a catastrophic barrel failure, with a 103kg shell traveling about 2100mph (960m/s), I don't want to be anywhere near that when it went boom. 

The mother of all cook-offs!

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 27, 2022)

Does Ukraine have the forces to retake Kherson? The Russians have had months to prepare its defences.









Ukraine claims it will recapture Kherson by September with aid of western weapons


Aide in southern region says a ‘turning point’ has been reached, heralding switch from defensive moves to long-awaited counterattack




www.theguardian.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Ukraine have the forces to retake Kherson? The Russians have had months to prepare its defences.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Just about all of us hope Ukraine has the forces to retake Kherson and I think they do. Reports of Russian forces refusing to fight are frequently reported. RU ammo supplies have been struck as can be seen from reports of reduced Russian artillery fire. There seems to an active "Free Ukraine" force in the oblast. Three important bridges that supply the orcs have been damaged, forcing Russia to stretch their logistics train. Re-supply by the Russians was terrible before the bridges were hit. 
I like to believe that when the poorly trained, ill supplied conscripts led by a questionable officer corps come under the full weight and fury of a trained, equipped and *motivated* Ukrainian Army, the orcs will fold.

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## Dimlee (Jul 27, 2022)

1.7 bln Eur contract for 100 Panzerhaubitzen, Germany - Ukraine.
Probably, it will take years to complete but this is the first contract of such scale. Off to a good start...








(S+) Ukraine-Krieg: Berlin genehmigt Verkauf von 100 Panzerhaubitzen


Wegen der zögerlichen Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine steht die Ampelkoalition unter Druck. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen hat die Regierung nun hinter den Kulissen den Milliardenkauf von 100 Panzerhaubitzen abgesegnet.




www.spiegel.de

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 1.7 bln Eur contract for 100 Panzerhaubitzen, Germany - Ukraine.
> Probably, it will take years to complete but this is the first contract of such scale. Off to a good start...


It may take years, but every little drop counts and we see little drops here and there on a regular basis.

Not to mention that this war is, unfortunately, poised to last years.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)

According to this guy, who claims to be structural engineer, the bridge is out for the rest of the war.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Ukraine have the forces to retake Kherson? The Russians have had months to prepare its defences.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If it is true that, according to above posts, Antonovskiy bridge is out of commission i don't think defenses can do much without receiving reinforcements/resupplies.
Anything west of Dnipro may become a huge pocket.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 1.7 bln Eur contract for 100 Panzerhaubitzen, Germany - Ukraine.
> Probably, it will take years to complete but this is the first contract of such scale. Off to a good start...
> 
> 
> ...



Nice work. It's a shame the such action and support wasn't available after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Think where Ukraine defences would be by now. But the future of the UAF is looking better.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 27, 2022)

China is not coming to Russia’s rescue


China is snapping up energy bargains from Western-sanctioned Russia, but Beijing is wary of arming Moscow in its war on Ukraine.




www.gisreportsonline.com

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## wlewisiii (Jul 27, 2022)



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## GTX (Jul 27, 2022)

Further to above posts:









Ukrainian missile strike halts Russian supply lines, as Russia takes Ukraine's second biggest power plant


Ukrainian troops have struck a strategic bridge essential for Moscow to supply its forces occupying the country's south, as Russia pounded several areas in Ukraine with rocket and artillery strikes.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jul 27, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelensky reveals the thing that scares him most about Vladimir Putin

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## GTX (Jul 27, 2022)

Putin's troops shoot down their OWN helicopter in Ukraine


The Ka-52 'Alligator' helicopter (pictured, file image), which costs an estimated £12million, was gunned down in Kherson, Ukraine's General Staff revealed.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> Volodymyr Zelensky reveals the thing that scares him most about Vladimir Putin


I scanned the article on my phone, but it looks a lot of clickbait. What is the one thing that scares him most about Vladimir Putin?


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## GTX (Jul 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I scanned the article on my phone, but it looks a lot of clickbait. What is the one thing that scares him most about Vladimir Putin?


From the article:



> "It seems to me the scariest thing about it is that he is in fact sane, and he understands what he's doing," the President replied. "I'd say that's the scariest conclusion I can make - that he understands what he's doing, he knows how many people he kills. He knows how many people were raped, and by who, and the number of children killed or deported.
> 
> "Therefore, I only understand one thing: the world allowed this situation to develop, it allowed such a person to emerge, with that ideology and attitude towards people. The world should understand that this result - this mistake, to allow this situation - is the responsibility of the whole world."

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## MiTasol (Jul 27, 2022)

can't argue with that

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 27, 2022)

A stamp commemorating the farmers tank tow brigade:

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 27, 2022)

And a notice, suposedly in Kherson, to the russian occupants:

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## MiTasol (Jul 27, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A stamp commemorating the farmers tank tow brigade:




Ukraine has a sales outlet on Amazon for all their stamps which apparently is creating considerable income for the country.

A good case of thinking outside the Postbox

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## gumbyk (Jul 27, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Ukraine has a sales outlet on Amazon for all their stamps which apparently is creating considerable income for the country.
> 
> A good case of thinking outside the Postbox


Have you got a link to their site - searching for 'Ukraine stamps' brings up plenty of resellers but nothing obviously official

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## MiTasol (Jul 27, 2022)

Amazon.com : ukrposhta stamps



The news item on tv said that the stamps were from UkrPoshta but I agee that the few I looked at were through other sources


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## GrauGeist (Jul 27, 2022)

This is the official Ukraine Postal Service store on Amazon:



Amazon.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Just about all of us hope Ukraine has the forces to retake Kherson and I think they do. Reports of Russian forces refusing to fight are frequently reported. RU ammo supplies have been struck as can be seen from reports of reduced Russian artillery fire. There seems to an active "Free Ukraine" force in the oblast. Three important bridges that supply the orcs have been damaged, forcing Russia to stretch their logistics train. Re-supply by the Russians was terrible before the bridges were hit.
> I like to believe that when the poorly trained, ill supplied conscripts led by a questionable officer corps come under the full weight and fury of a trained, equipped and *motivated* Ukrainian Army, the orcs will fold.



I sure hope you're right, brotha, But we've also seen the willingness to spend blood and treasure for relatively paltry, and even non-existent, gains.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 27, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> China is not coming to Russia’s rescue
> 
> 
> China is snapping up energy bargains from Western-sanctioned Russia, but Beijing is wary of arming Moscow in its war on Ukraine.
> ...



The gist of that article strikes me as China assuming a colonial-ruler position vs Russia assuming a dependency position. This is pretty much what Western colonial powers did between the 16th and 20th centuries: extract natural resources from colonies at healthy discounts, and then turn around and sell the colonies value-added products of those resources (once refined and manufactured) back to their colonies.

In short, Russia being sucked into a Chinese orbit. This war, far from making Russia Great Again®, would seem to be reducing it to the status of Chinese vassal. Another goal of Putin's short-circuited by his historically stupid decision to invade, apparently.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 27, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Ukraine has a sales outlet on Amazon for all their stamps which apparently is creating considerable income for the country.
> 
> A good case of thinking outside the Postbox



If you've got a link, I'd be happy to buy some and put a little money into the fray. No doubt others here share this feeling.

ETA: Just saw 

 GrauGeist
's post, bookmarked pending further investigation and hopefully a purchase of a tee- or sweat-shirt.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 27, 2022)

Putin must be cursing article 5 when this juicy target is well publicized.

Special Military Cell Flows Weapons and Equipment Into Ukraine

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 28, 2022)

Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only 2 significant offensive operations in Ukraine, both in Donetsk Oblast; the Russian offensive remains likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.
These operations have focused on advances in the Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, direction from Verkhnokamianka and Bilohorivka, and in the Bakhmut direction from the areas of Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant since the end of the operational pause on July 16. /2
Russian forces have committed enough resources to conduct near-daily ground assaults and to seize territory on these two axes but have been unable to sustain a similar offensive operational tempo or to make similar territorial gains elsewhere in Ukraine. /3
The Russian offensive, therefore, remains likely to culminate before seizing any other major urban areas in Ukraine. /4

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 28, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 28, 2022)

_
KYIV, July 28 (Reuters) - Ukraine stepped up its drive to retake the Russian-controlled south of the country by trying to bomb and isolate Russian troops in hard-to-resupply areas, but said it saw evidence that Moscow was redeploying its forces to defend the territory.

Ukraine's southern Kherson region, which borders Russian-annexed Crimea, fell to Russian forces soon after they began what Moscow calls "a special military operation" on Feb. 24.


Ukraine, which describes Russia's actions as an imperial-style war of conquest, said on Thursday its planes had struck five Russian strongholds around the city of Kherson and another city in the area.

British military intelligence, which helps Ukraine, said it was likely that Ukrainian forces had also established a bridgehead south of a river which runs along the wider Kherson region's northern border.

"Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum," it said in a statement.

[...]

A Ukrainian strike on Wednesday on the Antonivskyi bridge, the sole span serving Kherson city, prompted its closure to traffic. That forced Russia to open a ferry service, the route of which it said would constantly change for security reasons._









Ukraine steps up drive to retake Russian-controlled south with air strikes


Ukraine stepped up its drive to retake its Russian-controlled south by trying to bomb and isolate Russian troops in hard-to-resupply areas, but it said on Thursday it saw evidence that Moscow was redeploying its forces to defend the territory.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> View attachment 679382


I just imagine the gleeful attention the men and women operating the USA's National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) as they watch and listen in on the Russian movements and communications, sending it all to their Ukrainian counterparts. Unless the Russians can somehow block NATO's satellites and SIGINT they're going to lose the info/intel war hard. Praying for cloudy weather doesn't help.









Russian forces have set up a ferry next to the destroyed E97 bridge in Kherson Antonivka - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


Russian forces have set up a ferry next to the destroyed E97 bridge in Kherson. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests...




liveuamap.com





No way you can hide a AFV-capable ferry service. Those boats will be sunk.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 28, 2022)

Russian media has, for the first time, openly mentioned the Wagner Group PMC as being active in Ukraine. I find this interesting because not acknowledging the Wagner Group gave Moscow some plausible deniability of Wagner's actions. That's no longer the case if, as the article states, Wagner fight as "equals alongside Russian troops and people's militia from the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics":

_Russian media outlets have begun openly mentioning the shadowy private military company, the Wagner Group.

The country's state media has always referred to the group indirectly or avoided mentioning it altogether. But they now appear to have broken the taboo.

British military intelligence says mercenaries from the Wagner Group have been deployed to eastern Ukraine.

The group has been active over the past eight years in Ukraine, Syria and African countries, and has repeatedly been accused of war crimes and human rights abuses.

On Wednesday, the main evening news bulletin on Russia's most popular TV station, state-run Rossiya 1, acknowledged that fighters from Wagner were involved in the war in Ukraine.

It featured the channel's war correspondent, Yevgeny Poddubny, reporting from the ruins of a power station in eastern Ukraine.

"The site has been liberated by specialists from the Wagner private military company - the musicians, the orchestra," Poddubny said, listing words used mainly on social media to denote Wagner.

This appears to be the first time that Wagner was mentioned by name by a state TV reporter in a news bulletin as a force active in Ukraine.

The same day, key pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda called Wagner "a legendary unit".

"This private military company, Wagner PMC, as these professional military are known, has long since become a Russian brand known across the whole world," the reporter said.

"They performed tasks both in Syria and Africa. They are now fighting in Donbas as equals alongside Russian troops and people's militia from the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics."_

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russian media has, for the first time, openly mentioned the Wagner Group PMC as being active in Ukraine.


Looks like the local if not senior leadership of Wagner just got a big target on their heads.

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## RogerdeLluria (Jul 28, 2022)

How Russia spread a secret web of agents across Ukraine


Long before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin was building a network of secret agents to smooth its path, a Reuters investigation has found.




www.reuters.com

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## GrauGeist (Jul 28, 2022)

Russian hypocrisy at it's finest - they state that foreign fighters in Ukraine's international units are to be treated as "mercinaries" and subject to the death penalty YET they have been using actual mercinaries and it's ok.

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 28, 2022)

Wasn't Wagner beloved by Hitler due to his anti-semitism? The irony never stops.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russian hypocrisy at it's finest - they state that foreign fighters in Ukraine's international units are to be treated as "mercinaries" and subject to the death penalty YET they have been using actual mercinaries and it's ok.


Oh, don't worry, Putin couldn't care less if UAF put any captured Wagner mercenaries against the wall to take a bullet. He may feign outrage for the domestic and foreign media, but a dead Wagner mercenary is better than a dead Russian son (not that he cares much there either) and his outraged mother. Plus, (especially if Chechen or another oppressed minority) a dead Wagner is one that can't later turn against Putin when the cheques begin to bounce.

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## buffnut453 (Jul 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oh, don't worry, Putin couldn't care less if UAF put any captured Wagner mercenaries against the wall to take a bullet. He may feign outrage for the domestic and foreign media, but a dead Wagner mercenary is better than a dead Russian son (not that he cares much there either) and his outraged mother. Plus, (especially if Chechen or another oppressed minority) a dead Wagner is one that can't later turn against Putin when the cheques begin to bounce.



Putin doesn't care, regardless of who gets killed. He seems entirely lacking in human empathy, something that hindered his promotion when he served in the KGB.

Mothers and widows of Russian soldiers are trying to make their voices heard, however I doubt it will meet with much success:









Ukraine war: Mothers and wives of missing Russian servicemen face relentless fight for answers


"No-one hears us": Russian mothers speak of the deep pain of not knowing if their sons are dead or missing - and of the battle for information on what has happened to them.




news.sky.com

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## MiTasol (Jul 28, 2022)

A German take on the German governments reliability as a weapons supplier








Opinion: Germany loses credibility by not delivering tanks | DW | 27.07.2022


Governments in central and eastern Europe are disappointed that Berlin went back on its word regarding tanks for Poland. For DW's Frank Hofmann, it is the Social Democrats that are most damaging to Germany's reputation.




www.dw.com

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Putin doesn't care, regardless of who gets killed. He seems entirely lacking in human empathy, something that hindered his promotion when he served in the KGB.
> 
> Mothers and widows of Russian soldiers are trying to make their voices heard, however I doubt it will meet with much success:
> 
> ...


The rage of mothers after the Kursk sinking was a big risk to Putin’s government. How will his regime survive thirty thousand mothers? Along with tens of thousands of wounded and surviving troops coming home after participating in this lie?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 28, 2022)

Allegedly a mutiny in a russian unit:









Video Shows Russian Soldiers Refusing To Fight In Ukraine


A video shot by a Russian soldier captures a military mutiny in Ukraine -- as men from a unit of military engineers defy their commander and refuse to fight. Photos sent by another soldier from the unit showed a basement where they were later detained.




www.rferl.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oh, don't worry, Putin couldn't care less if UAF put any captured Wagner mercenaries against the wall to take a bullet. He may feign outrage for the domestic and foreign media, but a dead Wagner mercenary is better than a dead Russian son (not that he cares much there either) and his outraged mother.



More to the point, a dead Wagner mercenary is better than a live Wagner prisoner, from the Russian perspective. Mercenaries sell services.


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## GrauGeist (Jul 28, 2022)

Here's a good look at what's going on with Wagner in Ukraine.









Ukraine-Russia War: Wagner mercenaries lower standards for recruits - UK


Suffering severe casualties, Wagner has reportedly been forced to hire convicts and blacklisted individuals as new recruits, giving them all limited training.




www.jpost.com

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## glennasher (Jul 28, 2022)

They must have watched "The Dirty Dozen" one too many times.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jul 29, 2022)

Low flying UAF Mi-8:



Bayraktar maker refused to acept the money raised by crowfunding poles to buy a drone for UAF and will send it for free and donate yo ukrainian charity. Looks like that was done also for the crowfunding of the lituanian people:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

_
When the first armoured vehicles of Russia's invading army reached the heart of Chornobyl nuclear plant on the afternoon of Feb. 24, they encountered a Ukrainian unit charged with defending the notorious facility.

In less than two hours, and without a fight, the 169 members of the Ukrainian National Guard laid down their weapons. Russia had taken Chornobyl, a repository for tonnes of nuclear material and a key staging post on the approach to Kyiv.

The fall of Chornobyl, site of the world's worst nuclear disaster, stands out as an anomaly in the five-month old war: a successful blitzkrieg operation in a conflict marked elsewhere by a brutal and halting advance by Russian troops and grinding resistance by Ukraine.

Now a Reuters investigation has found that Russia's success at Chornobyl was no accident, but part of a long-standing Kremlin operation to infiltrate the Ukrainian state with secret agents.

Five people with knowledge of the Kremlin's preparations said war planners around President Vladimir Putin believed that, aided by these agents, Russia would require only a small military force and a few days to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's administration to quit, flee or capitulate.

Through interviews with dozens of officials in Russia and Ukraine and a review of Ukrainian court documents and statements to investigators, related to a probe into the conduct of people who worked at Chornobyl, Reuters has established that this infiltration reached far deeper than has been publicly acknowledged. The officials interviewed include people inside Russia who were briefed on Moscow's invasion planning and Ukrainian investigators tasked with tracking down spies._









How Russia spread a secret web of agents across Ukraine


Long before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin was building a network of secret agents to smooth its path, a Reuters investigation has found.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 29, 2022)

It's about time Creedence was used for Ukrainian helicopter vids.

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## Snautzer01 (Jul 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It's about time Creedence was used for Ukrainian helicopter vids.


That is about darn right. Love the smell of an Ukranian chopper in the morning.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Low flying UAF Mi-8:




Wow, that's gotta be 15' AGL tops.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Wow, that's gotta be 15' AGL tops.



Used to love doing NOE flight. We would average 25 to 50 ft (tops) usually.

One of my most memorable flights was during Operation Rapid Guardian. We flew Airborne troops all over Kosovo NOE together with Germans, Swiss, Spanish, and Italians. I took this pic of our sister ship (another Blakhawk) and a German Huey from my helicopter.

Awesome flying!

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## FLYBOYJ (Jul 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Used to love doing NOE flight. We would average 25 to 50 ft (tops) usually.
> 
> One of my most memorable flights was during Operation Rapid Guardian. We flew Airborne troops all over Kosovo NOE together with Germans, Swiss, Spanish, and Italians. I took this pic of our sister ship (another Blakhawk) and a German Huey from my helicopter.
> 
> ...


It's funny - this morning I was in a discussion with a commercial drone pilot who got upset because he saw a formation of Blackhawks flying low over San Francisco. He felt they were "hotdogging". I explained to him that an Army WO or higher aren't going to risk their careers "hotdogging" in a populated area, especially a formation of four. I directed him to read FAR 91.119 and let him know that commercial drone operations are at the bottom of the totem pole and just stay out of the way of any manned aircraft, especially military!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Used to love doing NOE flight. We would average 25 to 50 ft (tops) usually.
> 
> One of my most memorable flights was during Operation Rapid Guardian. We flew Airborne troops all over Kosovo NOE together with Germans, Swiss, Spanish, and Italians. I took this pic of our sister ship (another Blakhawk) and a German Huey from my helicopter.
> 
> ...



I'm thinkin' that if I'm on one of those heloes, my balls are introducing themselves to my lungs, they're crawling up that far.

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 29, 2022)

Everytime I see that I always hear "Flight of the Valkyries" in my head.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> It's funny - this morning I was in a discussion with a commercial drone pilot who got upset because he saw a formation of Blackhawks flying low over San Francisco. He felt they were "hotdogging". I explained to him that an Army WO or higher aren't going to risk their careers "hotdogging" in a populated area, especially a formation of four. I directed him to read FAR 91.119 and let him know that commercial drone operations are at the bottom of the totem pole and just stay out of the way of any manned aircraft, especially military!



Agreed. If they were flying low over a populated area they had permission. Most likely for takeoff or landing.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm thinkin' that if I'm on one of those heloes, my balls are introducing themselves to my lungs, they're crawling up that far.



Its such a fun experience. Especially when you have to go up over and down electrical wires.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Its such a fun experience. Especially when you have to go up over and down electrical wires.



The funny thing is I love roller-coasters. But without rails?!


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Everytime I see that I always hear "Flight of the Valkyries" in my head.



I used to hum it while in flight. lol

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Everytime I see that I always hear "Flight of the Valkyries" in my head.



"I love the smell of napalm in the morning."

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## GrauGeist (Jul 29, 2022)

They may have been National Guard helos on fire fighting assignment.
There are several fires burning in the area aside from the monster "Oak" fire burning in Mariposa county.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Used to love doing NOE flight. We would average 25 to 50 ft (tops) usually.
> 
> One of my most memorable flights was during Operation Rapid Guardian. We flew Airborne troops all over Kosovo NOE together with Germans, Swiss, Spanish, and Italians. I took this pic of our sister ship (another Blakhawk) and a German Huey from my helicopter.
> 
> ...


Once upon a lifetime ago I was in a scout platoon in the National Guard. There were three helicopter flights I remember the most. 

The first was over the Mississippi River in northern Minnesota. I remember sitting on the edge of the Huey and looking down at the bald eagles flying below us. 

The next was at Ft. Mcoy and a very young butter bar asked the Vietnam vet CW4 to fly the insertion "for real". That was a hell of a roller coaster  

Last was playing door gunner on a Blackhawk at Hohenfels while on a tour with the OpFor there. Leaning out with only the M-60 and the harness while popping miles/blanks at the trainees while we flew at NOE altitude was worth cleaning those dog machine guns

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## GTX (Jul 29, 2022)

U.S. believes 'huge' total of 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in Ukraine


White House officials also said over 80% of Putin's land forces are 'bogged down and tired'




fortune.com

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## SaparotRob (Jul 29, 2022)

And that ba$tard just doesn't care.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The next was at Ft. Mcoy and a very young butter bar asked the Vietnam vet CW4 to fly the insertion "for real". That was a hell of a roller coaster



We had a young infantry guy dare us to make him sick. Saying he bet we couldn’t. We hit the NOE route and flew it like we broke it. 3 minutes into route he was vomiting in his Kevlar and his friends asking us to stop.

We had one ask us to give him a ride for his Re-enlistment. We hovered over the camp with an American flag in the back of the helo. Once the ceremony was complete we hit the NOE route and gave him an amazing ride. We were not trying to make him sick though. The guy had the biggest grin from ear to ear, and said it meant the world to him.



> Last was playing door gunner on a Blackhawk at Hohenfels while on a tour with the OpFor there. Leaning out with only the M-60 and the harness while popping miles/blanks at the trainees while we flew at NOE altitude was worth cleaning those dog machine guns



That’s what I used to do. M60D machine gun. Spent many hours in Hohenfels doing that.

Speaking of the devil, here is Hohenfels, taken by yours truly.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And that ba$tard just doesn't care.



Just like his buddy Adolf…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 29, 2022)

Expecting an autocrat to care ... priceless.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 29, 2022)

Something of interest. I just watched a BBC Youtube piece on President Zelenskyy at the port that was loading the first grain freighter. Standing next to the ship dockside. Out in the open.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 29, 2022)

I wish I could remember the source. Supposedly the Ukrainian elite, with putin's okay, "allowed" Volodymyr Zelenskyy to run and win. The clown will run away when the time came for a proper puppet. 
It does have the ring of truth given how deeply embedded Soviet agents were (still are?).


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## GrauGeist (Jul 29, 2022)

I beleive the last time a head of state led from the front lines, was King Albert of Belgium during WWI.

Mr. Zelensky is a remarkable man.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 29, 2022)

Sir Winston Churchill did pay a visit to front as well.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> And that ba$tard just doesn't care.


As Magneto says, “the pawns go first”

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Sir Winston Churchill did pay a visit to front as well.


To be fair, the front was the skies over London.

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## fubar57 (Jul 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Sir Winston Churchill did pay a visit to front as well.











Necessary Risk: Churchill at the Front. Brendan Bracken’s Defense


No risk, no reward: Brendan Bracken eloquently defends Churchill’s penchant for showing up on front lines, regardless of the dangers.




winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu

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## at6 (Jul 30, 2022)

Figure out who the Russian agents are and kill them off quietly.


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## XBe02Drvr (Jul 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The funny thing is I love roller-coasters. But without rails?!


A "roll your own" coaster. Try ridge-running in a sailplane on a windy day.

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## rednev (Jul 30, 2022)

Just when you think the orcs cant getter more depraved


https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/sickening-video-shows-gagged-ukrainian-pow-being-castrated/news-story/b6dc57a7b47bed04ac0f48cb674bef49


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## at6 (Jul 30, 2022)

This only proves that Orcs should be killed, not taken prisoner.


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## Glider (Jul 30, 2022)

Its also worth remembering that in the first world war he also spent time in the front lines


XBe02Drvr said:


> A "roll your own" coaster. Try ridge-running in a sailplane on a windy day.


Or a Bungy launch from the Long Mynd

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## Denniss (Jul 30, 2022)

There are reports emerging that russian troops are now forced to rely on ferries and pontoons to bridge the gap over the Dnpro river in Cherson after Ukraine successfuly disabled the bridges.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> Figure out who the Russian agents are and kill them off quietly turn them.



Fixed.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 30, 2022)

rednev said:


> Just when you think the orcs cant getter more depraved
> 
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/sickening-video-shows-gagged-ukrainian-pow-being-castrated/news-story/b6dc57a7b47bed04ac0f48cb674bef49



God damn it, that is both infuriating and horribly sad. More than ever, I wish my country would just jump TF in already. No fighting soldier should ever be treated so cruelly and dishonorably.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 30, 2022)

In this digital day and age, those Russians just landed themselves square in the middle of a war crime conviction and it's only a matter of time before they're caught.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In this digital day and age, those Russians just landed themselves square in the middle of a war crime conviction and it's only a matter of time before they're caught.



Let us hope your prediction is accurate.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 30, 2022)

Here's a good read on how prosecutors are working to ID the Russians responsible for the Bucha murders.

Also note that in Putin's quote, he refers to Russia as the "Fatherland".

Interesting...









In The Heart Of Russia, A Hunt For Soldiers Accused Of War Crimes In Ukraine


In Ukraine, investigators hunt for details and identities of Russian soldiers alleged to have committed war crimes. An RFE/RL reporter hunts for details about one of the soldiers in a tiny, remote village in central Russia.




www.rferl.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's a good read on how prosecutors are working to ID the Russians responsible for the Bucha murders.
> 
> Also note that in Putin's quote, he refers to Russia as the "Fatherland".
> 
> ...



Right, I know they're doing good work that way, I'm just thinking that Russia can recall the criminals in the video and they'd remain outside of any legitimate jurisdiction.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 30, 2022)

And speaking of war crimes...

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## at6 (Jul 31, 2022)

Chain captured Orcs together and use them to clear the mines.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 31, 2022)

Olenivka is Ukrainian for "Malmedy"

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> And speaking of war crimes...



It’s not clear by reading the comments that this is what it seems. Confirmation bias, where we seek and accept any info that supports what we want to believe, such as the monstrosity of the Russians is strong on social media. I suggest we slow down and verify before reposting from Twitter et al.









Fact check: Is Russia using butterfly mines in Ukraine? | DW | 15.03.2022


PFM-1, known as "butterfly mines," look like toys and are therefore particularly dangerous for children. Russia has been accused of using the weapons in the war against Ukraine, but is there evidence for this?




www.dw.com





One more time….









How to avoid falling for and spreading misinformation about Ukraine


Breaking news moves fast online, and it can be difficult to tell what’s real and what’s purposefully misleading or fake. Here’s how to sort through it all.




www.adn.com

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## wlewisiii (Jul 31, 2022)

Note the date on the article you posted and then the date of the video showing PFM-1 mines on the ground.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Note the date on the article you posted and then the date of the video showing PFM-1 mines on the ground.


The better question is, have you made any attempt to verify the accuracy of your post? A quick click through the comments after that Tweet shows several counter claims and misinformation alerts. 

Question everything you read, and ask why was a vid or a claim posted onto social media. Or just follow the guide for avoiding misinformation that I posted above. Here’s another.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ukraine-how-to-avoid-spreading-misinformation-1.6366136



Apply a critical eye
Consider the source
Think before sharing
The below extract may apply to many of us.

_It’s important for people to be critical about information that confirms their beliefs. Social media platforms are optimized for users to "click without thinking," and people are less likely to follow up and verify information that strikes a chord. "If you're feeling a lot of anger, fear or surprise, then that's a sign that you need to stop and be extra careful about whether you forward something or share it because those emotions are usually what short circuits our critical thinking and causes us to to share a lot of the propaganda that's going around," _

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## vikingBerserker (Jul 31, 2022)

What better way to celebrate Russia's Navy Day



https://www.newsmax.com/headline/ukraine-attacks-russian/2022/07/31/id/1081086/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

_July 31 (Reuters) - A senior official in Russian-annexed Crimea accused Ukraine on Sunday of carrying out a drone attack ahead of planned celebrations to mark Navy Day, injuring five and forcing the cancellation of festivities.

The accusation comes hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to oversee Navy Day celebrations in his hometown of St Petersburg and approve Russia's naval doctrine as Moscow presses on with its military intervention in Ukraine.


"An unidentified object flew into the courtyard of the fleet's headquarters," Mikhail Razvozhayev, governor of Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea fleet, wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

"According to preliminary information, it is a drone."

He said Ukraine had decided to "spoil Navy Day for us".

[...]

Razvozhayev said that five employees of the fleet headquarters had been injured in the incident and that the Federal Security Service (FSB) was investigating its circumstances.


"All celebrations have been cancelled for security reasons," Razvozhayev said. "Please remain calm and stay home if possible."_









Russian official says Ukraine carried out drone attack on Black Sea fleet HQ


A senior official in Russian-annexed Crimea accused Ukraine on Sunday of carrying out a drone attack ahead of planned celebrations to mark Navy Day, injuring five and forcing the cancellation of festivities.




www.reuters.com





Crashing a party can be fun on occasion.

ETA: lol, ninja'ed by VB.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

Regarding the illegal mines, I see no news reporting their employment.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Another Chechen-Russian war.
> Fighters of Sheikh Mansur battalion (anti-Moscow Chechens) defending the Kyiv region.



I see the Express is reporting more Chechen units fighting alongside Ukraine.









Chechen rebels prepare to topple key Putin ally as civil war looms


VLADIMIR PUTIN is potentially facing a new civil war in the Caucasus after Chechen rebels said they were preparing for further hostilities in the region.




www.express.co.uk





_"The possibility of the Chechens taking advantage of Putin's forces being tied up in Ukraine to assert their independence is very plausible."”_

I can only assume it’s a matter of time before the Georgians and Moldavians think the same and rise up. The opportunity of a weakened and distracted Russia does not present itself often, so nows the time. If the Kazakhs then start to grumble Putin’s in trouble.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 31, 2022)

I’m hoping that it’s during the liberation of Kherson and RF forces are tied up, is when Georgia and Chechnya rise up. At the same time, a buttload of Luhansk and Donetsk Separatists wake up and smell the borscht.

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## SaparotRob (Jul 31, 2022)

Hell yeah, it’s optimistic! Things start falling apart in Orcandia at the same time and putin develops lead poisoning. Xi gets some more doubts. Taiwan is safer. I win the Mega Millions, split it with my wife who then promptly leaves me and GrauGeist gets my jokes.

What were we talking about again?

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## Glider (Jul 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I see the Express is reporting more Chechen units fighting alongside Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A couple of observations: -


I am pretty sure I first saw that clip months ago when the fighting first started
Take anything the Express says with a significant dose of caution.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hell yeah, it’s optimistic! Things start falling apart in Orcandia at the same time and putin develops lead poisoning. Xi gets some more doubts. Taiwan is safer. I win the Mega Millions, split it with my wife who then promptly leaves me and GrauGeist gets my jokes.
> 
> What were we talking about again?



Oh, dear, Rob's been hitting the nitrous ... _a-_gain.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

_ST PETERSBURG, Russia, July 31 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a new naval doctrine which cast the United States as Russia's main rival and set out Russia's global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and in the Black Sea.

Speaking on Russia's Navy Day in the former imperial capital of St Petersburg founded by Tsar Peter the Great, Putin praised Peter for making Russia a great sea power and increasing the global standing of the Russian state.


After inspecting the navy, Putin made a short speech in which he promised that what he touted as Russia's unique Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, cautioning that Russia had the military clout to defeat any potential aggressors.

Shortly before the speech, he signed a new 55-page naval doctrine, which sets out the broad strategic aims of Russia's navy, including its ambitions as a "great maritime power" which extend over the entire world._









On Navy Day, Putin says United States is main threat to Russia


President Vladimir Putin on Sunday signed a new naval doctrine which cast the United States as Russia's main rival and set out Russia's global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and in the Black Sea.




www.reuters.com





We're quaking in our boots, Mr Putin.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 31, 2022)

Putler's puppet is getting ready to start a 2nd front. Apparently they don't care about the 4000 NATO troops stationed in Kosovo.

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

Perhaps they are hoping that the NATO troops will be as effective as previous peacekeeping forces.


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## Snautzer01 (Jul 31, 2022)

If it is true (doubtfull i must say) this will not going to be a peace keeping task. Bunch of very weak, poorly trained band of hooligans will not be a problem for Nato in anger.


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## GTX (Jul 31, 2022)

Ukraine's 'ticking clock' to reclaim the city of Kherson before Russia can annex it


The battle for Kherson looms as a pivotal moment for both Ukraine and Russia, experts say, and Ukraine retaking the city would be a huge blow to Russia and an embarrassing setback for President Vladimir Putin.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine's 'ticking clock' to reclaim the city of Kherson before Russia can annex it
> 
> 
> The battle for Kherson looms as a pivotal moment for both Ukraine and Russia, experts say, and Ukraine retaking the city would be a huge blow to Russia and an embarrassing setback for President Vladimir Putin.
> ...



The Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson is clearly designed to split the Russian front in order to provide an opportunity for defeat in detail of at least the Russian forces occupying the Black Sea coast. That has to be done if Ukraine wants to keep its economy going. 

If my guess is in the neighborhood of being right, only after the sea-coast is cleared will the Ukrainians attempt to clear the Donbas. Ukrainian forces in the south can then pivot on their right flank and present a southern threat to Russian forces in the Donbas -- if enough Ukrainian men and supplies are in place.

This is not to say that Ukraine is or is not capable of pulling off this plan; but if they are, it could be feasible. At the very least, if the Ukrainians take Kherson, they've emplaced a major impediment to any Russian withdrawal from the south coast.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Perhaps they are hoping that the NATO troops will be as effective as previous peacekeeping forces.



What do you mean? The NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo has been highly successful and effective. KFOR has been maintaining the peace for over 2 decades now.

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## wlewisiii (Jul 31, 2022)



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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What do you mean? The NATO peacekeeping mission is Kosovo has been highly successful and effective. KFOR has been maintaining the peace for over 2 decades now.


Srebrinica.
Rwanda.
Congo.
Many others.
Although, I believe the equation has changed. Western leaders are recognizing that they cannot turn a blind eye to aggression in the hopes of avoiding "escalation." It's what Putin was counting on when he started this mess.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Srebrinica.
> Rwanda.
> Congo.
> Many others.
> Although, I believe the equation has changed. Western leaders are recognizing that they cannot turn a blind eye to aggression in the hopes of avoiding "escalation." It's what Putin was counting on when he started this mess.



Yeah, but we are talking directly about Serbia and Kosovo which has an effective and highly successful NATO peace keeping mission. Why would Serbia think anything different?


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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

Because desperate people do desperate things. 
Perhaps he's just rattling sabres because Putin needs him to cause a distraction.
Or maybe he sees this as his last chance at reasserting Serbian control, while everyone is preoccuppied with Ukraine.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Srebrinica.
> Rwanda.
> Congo.
> Many others.
> Although, I believe the equation has changed. Western leaders are recognizing that they cannot turn a blind eye to aggression in the hopes of avoiding "escalation." It's what Putin was counting on when he started this mess.



NATO did not intervene in Rwanda. I don't think they did so in Congo. The intervention in the Balkans did actually quell the war there.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Because desperate people do desperate things.
> Perhaps he's just rattling sabres because Putin needs him to cause a distraction.
> Or maybe he sees this as his last chance at reasserting Serbian control, while everyone is preoccuppied with Ukraine.



He’s a fool then…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> NATO did not intervene in Rwanda. I don't think they did so in Congo. The intervention in the Balkans did actually quell the war there.



The Balkans intervention was textbook and highly successful.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

And lets not forget the fact that any multinational force is only good if it is unified. Right now NATO has never been this unified (to the dismay of several good buddies). Forcing NATO peacekeeping forces to intervene in Kosovo would be a dreadful mistake.

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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Putler's puppet is getting ready to start a 2nd front. Apparently they don't care about the 4000 NATO troops stationed in Kosovo.



The Serbians do like to start global conflagrations.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Serbians do like to start global conflagrations.



The Serbians certainly do like to push buttons. Every time we flew border traces along the Serbian-Kosovo border, the Serbs would light up their SAM radars and paint us even though we were clearly on the Kosovo side of the line.

Good times…

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

I'm sure they were just calibrating.

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## Glider (Jul 31, 2022)

I wonder if Putin is using this to try and estimate how willing Nato are to actually fight. If Serbia do take action and Nato go into it's, 'oh dear lets talk about it mode'. Then that might encourage him to push his luck in Ukraine.
If Nato do react with force, then its bad luck on Serbia, which wouldn't worry him one jot.

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## GrauGeist (Jul 31, 2022)

You know Putin is trying to find ways to distract from Ukraine and Serbia would be one such attempt.

As far as the great Russian Navy being a world power, they have to get past Ukraine before taking on the USN. So far, that's not really working out too well.

The above mentioned Congo and Rwanda situations were not handled by NATO, it was UN peacekeeping missions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The above mentioned Congo and Rwanda situations were not handled by NATO, it was UN peacekeeping missions.



Correct, and largely using poorly trained soldiers from other African Nations to make up the forces I believe. Although western nations did provide some forces.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

Glider said:


> I wonder if Putin is using this to try and estimate how willing Nato are to actually fight. If Serbia do take action and Nato go into it's, 'oh dear lets talk about it mode'. Then that might encourage him to push his luck in Ukraine.
> If Nato do react with force, then its bad luck on Serbia, which wouldn't worry him one jot.



Does NATO have an obligation to defend Croatia?


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does NATO have an obligation to defend Croatia?


I’d say yes, aren’t they a full NATO member? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia–NATO_relations

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does NATO have an obligation to defend Croatia?



I don’t believe there is any NATO peacekeeping force in Croatia. I know we still had some bases in Bosnia though. We always used a Spanish base in Mostar to refuel our helicopters when we flew to and from Germany.

Edit: see my very next post.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’d say yes, aren’t they a full NATO member?
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia–NATO_relations



Admiral is correct. They are a NATO nation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’d say yes, aren’t they a full NATO member?
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia–NATO_relations



This is why I ask questions -- to fill in blanks in my knowledge. Thanks for doing so.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jul 31, 2022)

I don’t know for the life of me why I forgot they were a NATO nation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Jul 31, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t know for the life of me why I forgot they were a NATO nation.



They had more consonants than vowels in their names. That shit's hard to remember, "Krysmthnsywaben". We just called them "Alphabet", sure you remember that.


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## Admiral Beez (Jul 31, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I don’t know for the life of me why I forgot they were a NATO nation.


Albania and Montenegro too. Serbia is surrounded by NATO. 

Kosovo and Bosnia are not in NATO, but the latter is an applicant and the US has promised to defend Bosnia if attacked.






Accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## GrauGeist (Jul 31, 2022)

I've always been curious as to why Austria never joined NATO.

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

They were occupied and divided like Germany after the war. One of the conditions for ending the occupation was a pledge of permanent neutrality.

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## WARSPITER (Jul 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I've always been curious as to why Austria never joined NATO.


It's due to the 1955 Austrian State Treaty which prohibits Austria from forming alliances with other countries and
also prohibits any foreign military from being on Austrian territory.

I think there is also something in their constitution as well.

Austria certainly seems to be an odd bod in all of that.

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## Greg Boeser (Jul 31, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It's due to the 1955 Austrian State Treaty which prohibits Austria from forming alliances with other countries and
> also prohibits any foreign military from being on Austrian territory.
> 
> I think there is also something in their constitution as well.
> ...


Being under foreign occupation does that.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Being under foreign occupation does that.


Sometimes what seems like a good idea does have future ramifications........ invading neighbours and setting up puppet governments comes to mind.....

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 1, 2022)

It's that whole "Carthage must be destroyed!" Mentality. Once the earth is salted, and the populace has been sold off into slavery, then what?
I wonder if Putin has considered this question?


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## WARSPITER (Aug 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> It's that whole "Carthage must be destroyed!" Mentality. Once the earth is salted, and the populace has been sold off into slavery, then what?
> I wonder if Putin has considered this question?


Move on for no particular reason to the next Carthage ?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I've always been curious as to why Austria never joined NATO.



_”Austria is bound to neutrality by the 1955 Austrian State Treaty and its constitution, which prohibits entry into military alliances and the establishment of foreign military bases on Austrian territory.”_



Neutral European countries



Having said that, they have joined in multinational peacekeeping missions, just not military combat operations. They were part of the German-Swiss-Austrian contingent in Kosovo for example.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 1, 2022)

That's a rather strict treaty, sort of like Japan.

Wonder if it has it's roots in the Austro-Hungarian Empire memory, since Austria wasn't a belligerent in WWII.


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## swampyankee (Aug 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's a rather strict treaty, sort of like Japan.
> 
> Wonder if it has it's roots in the Austro-Hungarian Empire memory, since Austria wasn't a belligerent in WWII.


The Anschluss meant that Austria was part of the German Reich. It, like Nebraska, wasn't a belligerent because it was not an independent sovereign state.


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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 1, 2022)

I would not worry too much about Serbia. It's just a bit a sabre rattling over car license plates, yes all this mess is over a thing so mundane as car plates.

In 2011, an agreement was concluded between Serbia and Kosovo on the use of neutral documents and license plates by the northerners of Kosovo, which expire on August 1, 2022. After that, Serbian citizens entering the territory of the republic will receive temporary Kosovo documents on crossing the border, and Serbian ones will be invalid. Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo and does not consider it possible for Kosovo to establish rules for the registration of cars. On August 1 (that is, today), after negotiations with representatives of the US and the EU, the Kosovo authorities temporarily postponed the ban on Serbian documents until September 1.

On the other hand Serbia (Serbian government at least, population is quite pro Russian on the Ukrainian issue) is leaning more and more towards west. After all they will be much better as part of EU than as a Russian puppet state.








Serbia considers purchase of Rafale jets from France, president says


Serbia plans to purchase Rafale multipurpose fighter jets from France, President Aleksandar Vucic said on Monday, which experts saw as the latest sign of Belgrade distancing itself from its traditional military supplier and ally Russia.




www.reuters.com












Vučić in Spain; Serbia is buying two planes


Latest Serbia news in English, latest Kosovo news in English, Serbian economy news, Serbian business news, Serbian politics news, Balkan regional news in English




www.b92.net












Serbia’s EU ambition – the best guarded secret in the election campaign


In the predominantly Russia-leaning public space in Serbia, an EU candidate country since 2012, aligning with the bloc is obviously not a popular political message ahead of the parliamentary, presidential, and Belgrade elections due on 3 April.




www.euractiv.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 1, 2022)

Oryx have visually confirmed that Russians have lost at least 5000 vehicles including 900 tanks.








Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine







www.oryxspioenkop.com





With those numbers i wonder what benefit do the Russians, and Putin in particular, expect from this war.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 1, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> With those numbers i wonder what benefit do the Russians, and Putin in particular, expect from this war.


Putin misread the situation in Ukraine and the willingness of NATO and the world to intervene; so he expected a cakewalk. The invasion of Ukraine is going to enter history’s list of large scale, geopolitical-changing military blunders, like Barbarossa and Pearl Harbour.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 1, 2022)

_Even as Moscow's war machine crawls across Ukraine's east, trying to achieve the Kremlin's goal of securing full control over the country's industrial heartland, Ukrainian forces are scaling up attacks to reclaim territory in the Russian-occupied south.

The Ukrainians have used American-supplied rocket launchers to strike bridges and military infrastructure in the south, forcing Russia to divert its forces from the Donbas in the east to counter the new threat.

With the war in Ukraine now in its sixth month, the coming weeks may prove decisive.

[...]

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov noted that by stepping up the attacks in the south, Kyiv has forced Russia to spread its forces.

"The Russian military command has been put before a dilemma: to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region or build up defenses in the south," Zhdanov said. "It's going to be difficult for them to perform both tasks simultaneously for a long time."

He noted that rather than trying to mount a massive, all-out counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have sought to undermine the Russian military in the south with a series of strikes on its munitions and fuel depots and other key sites.

"It doesn't have to be a head-on attack," Zhdanov noted.

[...]

In a series of attacks that helped boost the country's morale, the Ukrainians repeatedly used HIMARS to strike a key bridge across the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, cutting traffic across it and raising potential supply problems for Russian forces in the area.

Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military analyst, described the bridge as the key link for supplying Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnieper.

Russia still can use a second crossing on the Dnieper to ferry supplies and reinforcements to its troops in Kherson, which lies just north of the Crimean Peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014. But Ukraine's strikes have shown Russia's vulnerability and weakened its hold on the region.

"The Russians have the river at their back. That's not a great place to be defending," Crump said. "They can't get supplies easily. The morale is probably quite low at this point on that side of the river."_









Ukraine seeks to retake the south, tying down Russian forces


Even as Moscow's war machine crawls across Ukraine's east, trying to achieve the Kremlin's goal of securing full control over the country's industrial heartland, Ukrainian forces are scaling up attacks to reclaim territory in the Russian-occupied south.




apnews.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 1, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> The Anschluss meant that Austria was part of the German Reich. It, like Nebraska, wasn't a belligerent because it was not an independent sovereign state.


The "annexation" of Austria was encouraged by the German Army, who crossed into Austria the day before the public vote on Austria's possible unification with Germany.
A vote against, was not a wise nor healthy decision.

There was also the Sudentenland as well as the "protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia", but the Czechs don't seem to be punished for that.


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## Dimlee (Aug 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They had more consonants than vowels in their names. That shit's hard to remember, "Krysmthnsywaben". We just called them "Alphabet", sure you remember that.


My favourite. It's easier to say: kilo-romeo-kilo. 
But Tomo will disagree, I guess. 








Krk - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 1, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Aug 1, 2022)

Speaking of the Russian Navy.... Russian official says Ukraine carried out drone attack on Black Sea fleet HQ

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## ThomasP (Aug 1, 2022)

Saw this earlier today, don't recall if anyone already posted it:

"Mi-24V Gunship Helicopter Donated By Czech Republic Seen In Action Over Ukraine"

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> View attachment 680078


Dreams of a target-rich environment! Fantasize to your heart's content.

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## ThomasP (Aug 1, 2022)

The US is deploying ~1/2 of the 90th Fighter Squadron (based at Elmendorf AFB in Alaska) to Poland for the next few months (at least). The current plan is to rotate aircraft from the squadron along with elements of the 302nd Fighter Squadron (Reserve) after the 302nd has time to prepare.

Note that both squadrons are equipped with F-22.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 1, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The US is deploying ~1/2 of the 90th Fighter Squadron (based at Elmendorf AFB in Alaska) to Poland for the next few months (at least). The current plan is to rotate aircraft from the squadron along with elements of the 302nd Fighter Squadron (Reserve) after the 302nd has time to prepare.
> 
> Note that both squadrons are equipped with F-22.



That’s my girl…

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Even as Moscow's war machine crawls across Ukraine's east, trying to achieve the Kremlin's goal of securing full control over the country's industrial heartland, Ukrainian forces are scaling up attacks to reclaim territory in the Russian-occupied south.
> 
> The Ukrainians have used American-supplied rocket launchers to strike bridges and military infrastructure in the south, forcing Russia to divert its forces from the Donbas in the east to counter the new threat.
> 
> With the war in Ukraine now in its sixth month, the coming weeks may prove decisive._


The Colonel called it correctly, saying “it’s going to get worse” once Lend Lease is underway.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 1, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> View attachment 680078


It‘s odd that in their navy day announcements the Russian didn’t mention the sacrifice of the men of the cruiser Moskva and other naval losses in the Black Sea.






List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Colonel called it correctly, saying “it’s going to get worse” once Lend Lease is underway.



This man is yet to have some special tea in the Kremlin? Amazing he is still on the russian TV

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 1, 2022)

More goodies to support the UAF’s new offensives.









Germany to send Ukraine 16 bridge-laying tanks, adding to its arsenal of Western weapons, as it wages a new offensive against the Russian invasion


Germany plans to send Ukraine Biber bridge-layer tanks to help its forces "overcome water or other obstacles in battle," the ministry said Friday.




www.businessinsider.com













North Macedonia donates tanks to Ukraine as it modernises own military


North Macedonia plans to donate an unspecified number of Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine as it seeks to modernise its own military to meet NATO standards, its defence ministry said on Friday.




www.reuters.com













Ukraine gets more US and German rocket launcher systems – Minister


Article author:Reuters Ukraine also received more German and US-made multiple rocket launchers, part of a series of high-precision heavy weapons deliverie




theworldnews.net

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## SaparotRob (Aug 1, 2022)

The bridging equipment will be extremely helpful, especially since since it can handle Leopard II, Challenger and Abram tanks should they appear.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The bridging equipment will be extremely helpful, especially since since it can handle Leopard II, Challenger and Abram tanks should they appear.


Agreed, but Jeez, get on with it!

_“The first six systems are due to be *delivered later this year*, and 10 more systems will follow next year, Germany's Federal Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht said.”_

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## buffnut453 (Aug 1, 2022)

I came across this article thanks to a work colleague. It's an analysis of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. I've included the authors so you can be confident these aren't a bunch of propagandists touting opinions rather than fact-based analysis. Each of the main bullets in the summary below is further expounded in the actual paper....but this summary is probably good enough for most of us on here:

*Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy: 
Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia*

_Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld
Founder & President, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Senior Associate Dean, Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice, Yale School of Management

Steven Tian
Director of Research, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Franek Sokolowski
Research Fellow in Business & Economics, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Michal Wyrebkowski
Research Assistant in Energy, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Business School

Mateusz Kasprowicz
Research Assistant, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Warsaw School of Economics

July 2022

Introduction: 

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a "war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west", given the supposed "resilience" and even "prosperity" of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin – which we explain further in Section I of this paper.

Our team of experts, using Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia's international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia's economic outlook.

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, in the short-term, and the long-term. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia's strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a "pivot to Asia" with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

- Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy._

_- Despite Putin's delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst.

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades' worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia's economic base.

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood.

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy.

- Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia's economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I came across this article thanks to a work colleague. It's an analysis of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. I've included the authors so you can be confident these aren't a bunch of propagandists touting opinions rather than fact-based analysis. Each of the main bullets in the summary below is further expounded in the actual paper....but this summary is probably good enough for most of us on here:
> 
> *Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy:
> Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia*
> ...



I'm no economist, but I understand enough of that to think they've got a shitshow in front of them.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 1, 2022)

I was just talking to a retired investment banker about this very subject, and his opinion on the current events put Russia's situation in a nutshell:
"...in less than a half a year, Putin has transformed Russia from a first world nation to a third world nation.
They are nothing more than a paper Tiger and if Russia is to regain their place on the world stage, it will take considerable effort and most likely without Putin at the helm..."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I was just talking to a retired investment banker about this very subject, and his opinion on the current events put Russia's situation in a nutshell:
> "...in less than a half a year, Putin has transformed Russia from a first world nation to a third world nation.
> They are nothing more than a paper Tiger and if Russia is to regain their place on the world stage, it will take considerable effort and most likely without Putin at the helm..."



The money-drain they are experiencing right now spells the end of further development. I think they're eating seed-corn in this war they've started. No replacing losses, Putin unwilling to institute a draft for political reasons, major internationals refusing to invest into a sanctioned country. The oil they are actually able to sell is well below market-value for the same reason, and that has been their most-valuable commodity export for a couple of decades now. Big hit.

I think Russia has cornered itself, and that at this point the war is, in Putin's mind, a fight for personal survival, because once the cards collapse his house is gone.


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## at6 (Aug 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Colonel called it correctly, saying “it’s going to get worse” once Lend Lease is underway.



The interviewer is one hardcore skank.

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## swampyankee (Aug 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The "annexation" of Austria was encouraged by the German Army, who crossed into Austria the day before the public vote on Austria's possible unification with Germany.
> A vote against, was not a wise nor healthy decision.
> 
> There was also the Sudentenland as well as the "protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia", but the Czechs don't seem to be punished for that.


There were also significant national Austrian politicians pushing for union with Germany, unlike Czechoslovakia, where union with Germany was an issue for regional politicians. Politics in a lot of Central Europe was, at best, messy Before WWII. During the war, every occupied country* had parts of its population collaborating to some extent (I'm not counting somebody selling lunch to a German soldier as collaboration**, but turning in your neighbor for listening to the BBC up to and including cheerfully joining in implementing the Holocaust and joining SS military units do)




* Except, maybe, the Channel Islands.
** Especially if they spit in it and jack up the price

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 2, 2022)

Why do Russian soldiers break on the Ukranian battlefield?
The war through the eyes of Viktor Shayga, a Russian who volunteered to join the army as a contract soldier in March 2022.








Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App


@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Why do Russian soldiers break on the Ukranian battlefield? This third 🧵 in a series looks at at how their personal experiences of war have prompted some Russian contract soldiers to refuse orders, r...…




threadreaderapp.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 2, 2022)

Also interesting:

Part 1 Why do Russian soldiers fight in Ukraine?








Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App


@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Why do Russian soldiers fight in Ukraine, why do they quit and what happens when they do quit? Intercepted Russian phone calls published by the Ukrainians and accounts from the soldiers themselves s...…




threadreaderapp.com





Part 2: Why do Russian soldiers quit fighting in Ukraine and go home?








Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App


@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Why do Russian soldiers quit fighting in Ukraine and go home? In this second 🧵 in a short series, I'll look at what translated Russian accounts say about some of the factors prompting soldiers...…




threadreaderapp.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Putin misread the situation in Ukraine and the willingness of NATO and the world to intervene; so he expected a cakewalk. The invasion of Ukraine is going to enter history’s list of large scale, geopolitical-changing military blunders, like Barbarossa and Pearl Harbour.


Agreed.

However, such military blunder is evident to anybody who is not brain dead since late march.
All the fighting since then is just face-saving (that IMHO is going from bad to worse) or a matter of not hurting Putin's feelings.

Other than that, what do they expect to get? Increasing Russian territory by 0,1%?, and that assuming that Russia doesn't go the way of the Soviet union.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 2, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> There were also significant national Austrian politicians pushing for union with Germany...


Well, the chap in Berlin in charge of it all was Austrian.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Other than that, what do they expect to get? Increasing Russian territory by 0,1%?, and that assuming that Russia doesn't go the way of the Soviet union.


The Donbas is where Ukraine's gas and oil reserves are located. If Ukraine can retake this territory they can set up a competing pipeline service to Europe, making Russia more of an irrelevancy. That's Putin's two goals, to ensure that only Russia controls oil and especially gas from the east to Europe and to ensure that Ukraine never has the petro dollars to become a prosperous, western-like state.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 2, 2022)

But everyone has agreed to eliminate fossil fuels by 2030.


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## Snautzer01 (Aug 2, 2022)

Putin burned that card. Dont think western powers will buy any fossil fuel if there is something else on the market. And there is.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 2, 2022)

One of the economists buffnut453 quoted, Mr. Sonnenfeld, has said that the oil pipeline going to China would barely provide the City of Leeds' energy requirements. It's all set up to go the other way.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Putin burned that card. Dont think western powers will buy any fossil fuel if there is something else on the market. And there is.


Jokes aside, this war has given alternative energy initiatives a serious slap on the butt to get moving. There's no way that without this war the Germans would be rushing toward alternative energy. And we'd never see nuclear getting any _deutsche leidenschaft_ (is that a thing?) without Putin's folly into Ukraine.









Scholz Opens Door for Extending Nuclear Power in Germany


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled that his government might consider extending the life of the country’s three remaining nuclear plants as it seeks to bolster its energy security.




www.bloomberg.com





At this rate we'll see the western Europeans crack nuclear fusion energy before the end of the decade. 









German start-up aims to generate unlimited clean fusion energy with lasers


Marvel Fusion, a German start-up that has raised more than $65 million, aims to commercialize fusion using laser technology.




www.cnbc.com





Perhaps a planet with fewer GHG will be Putin's legacy.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 2, 2022)

Russia amping up the rhetoric about US/NATO engagement in Ukraine:









Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war


Moscow accuses the US of directly approving targets for US-made artillery used by Ukraine.



www.bbc.com





I really worry about Putin feeling so backed into a corner that he elects to go (literally) nuclear. I hope he's not that stupid but, of all the world's leaders, he's the most likely to push the button simply because he doesn't care about a single other human being on the planet.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 2, 2022)

Yup, you cannot expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable.


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## Glider (Aug 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Colonel called it correctly, saying “it’s going to get worse” once Lend Lease is underway.



I have to say that this guy speaks a lot of home truths and I am more than a little surprised that they let him continue to speak. There was quite open criticism of the Russian Political and Military leaders, the use of contract soldiers, of the assumption that Ukraine are on the point of breaking, that India and China are unconditional allies, that the Ukraine troops could be considered unprofessional, and a whole lot more.

I hope he is careful about what he eats and drinks

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> I hope he is careful about what he eats and drinks


His latest appearances are much more in line with Putin. Someone nudged him.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 3, 2022)

Well...the prophecy that Serbia would go on the offensive against Kosovo a few days ago was clearly inaccurate. However, tensions are definitely rising. This article helps explain some of it but I feel there's a lot missing. Forcing ethnic Serbs to adopt Kosovo number plates on their cars seems a very poor reason for kicking off a shooting war:









Kosovo: Why is trouble flaring between Serbs and the Albanian-led government?


Serbs have been demonstrating in Kosovo, raising fears of renewed ethnic hostilities.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Aug 3, 2022)

Waiting for the big BOOM:









Ukraine war: IAEA says Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant out of control


Every principle of nuclear safety has been violated at Zaporizhzhia, the UN's nuclear chief says.



www.bbc.com

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## Zipper730 (Aug 3, 2022)

We just don't need another INES-7: We've already had two (and both in my lifetime) already (Chernobyl: 1986 and Fukushima: 2011). Frankly, you'd think even the Russians would realize that this doesn't benefit anybody. Fallout from a nuclear reactor doesn't care about national boundaries, it just goes wherever the wind blows it, and ionizing radiation doesn't care whether you're Ukrainian or Russian (or American).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 3, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> We just don't need another INES-7: We've already had two (and both in my lifetime) already (Chernobyl: 1986 and Fukushima: 2011). Frankly, you'd think even the Russians would realize that this doesn't benefit anybody. Fallout from a nuclear reactor doesn't care about national boundaries, it just goes wherever the wind blows it, and ionizing radiation doesn't care whether you're Ukrainian or Russian (or American).



And the wind is generally west-to-east in that part of the world, though it does circulate NW as well.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 3, 2022)

Putin is making Kim Jong Un look responsible.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 3, 2022)

The Battle of Kherson may well be a decisive clash.









Russia is preparing its forces for an attack on the southern battlefront, Ukraine says.







www.nytimes.com







Ukraine takes out Russian ammunition railway connecting Kherson to Crimea



This page will need an update…









Battle of Kherson - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## GrauGeist (Aug 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putin is making Kim Jong Un look responsible.


Notice how that clown has been very quiet, lately?

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## SaparotRob (Aug 3, 2022)

I think he threw a "no one is paying attention to me" tantrum a couple of weeks ago.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Battle of Kherson may well be a decisive clash.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I believe it _could_ be decisive; if the Ukrainians manage to split the Russian front, things get much harder, quickly, for the latter. As I mentioned above, I think that's the operational aim of this offensive. Shoulder the one flank while you roll up the isolated southern coast.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I believe it _could_ be decisive; if the Ukrainians manage to split the Russian front, things get much harder, quickly, for the latter. As I mentioned above, I think that's the operational aim of this offensive. Shoulder the one flank while you roll up the isolated southern coast.


It looks that way, “The offensive to try to retake Kherson is picking up steam”—Ukraine’s recapture bid

It's more likely only available well after the battle, but I'd like to see a comparison of the order of battle. What forces have the Ukrainians and Russians brought to bear? I imagine the US has its recon satellites and sigint intercepts sitting directly over Kherson, reporting every move to Kyiv. In the information and intelligence war, the Russians are outplayed.

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## Dimlee (Aug 4, 2022)

As time goes by, more information about Mariupol's defence goes public.
4 Ukrainian marines, 15 days, 101 km (I tried to measure their track) through the enemy-controlled territory.
Original article (Ukrainian):








Пешком из окруженного города. Неизвестная история выхода морпехов из Мариуполя


История обороны Мариуполя, какой ее видел и запомнил морпех с позывным афинского полководца – Аристид (укр.)




www.pravda.com.ua




Google translated:








Пешком из окруженного города. Неизвестная история выхода морпехов из Мариуполя


История обороны Мариуполя, какой ее видел и запомнил морпех с позывным афинского полководца – Аристид (укр.)




www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog




Their track from Mariupol to Ukrainian lines:


https://img.pravda.com/images/doc/6/4/64e92da-aristida1.jpg


Only 7 men made it from their battalion and only 76 of 3 battalions of the 36th Brigade.

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## Glider (Aug 4, 2022)

I have just seen this. When people play with fire, they can get burnt.



Russia-Ukraine war: Officer who 'boasted' of killing civilians becomes Kremlin's first female commander to die

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## Denniss (Aug 4, 2022)

She was a traitor who liked to kill their own people. Now she got what she deserved.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 4, 2022)

I can only think it's a matter of time before the Belarussians refuse to allow their country to be used as a launch point against Ukraine.









Russia maintains eastern Ukrainian attacks, new raids from Belarus


Russia maintained its attacks in eastern Ukraine and the southern city of Mykolaiv on Thursday while launching new raids from Belarus in the north.




www.upi.com













Tsikhanouskaya Accuses Lukashenka Of 'Treason' Over Belarus's Role In Ukraine


Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya says she has declared herself the country’s “national leader” because authoritarian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka committed treason with his actions surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.




www.rferl.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It looks that way, “The offensive to try to retake Kherson is picking up steam”—Ukraine’s recapture bid
> 
> It's more likely only available well after the battle, but I'd like to see a comparison of the order of battle. What forces have the Ukrainians and Russians brought to bear? I imagine the US has its recon satellites and sigint intercepts sitting directly over Kherson, reporting every move to Kyiv. In the information and intelligence war, the Russians are outplayed.



The news I've read reports the use of MLRS/HIMARS systems to strike the supply and ammo dumps in the area, and yes, they're likely identified and targeted with US satellite assistance. i don't doubt that the small arms and shoulder-missiles of various sorts are also in use. 

Like you, I have no idea of the numbers of troops each side is committing to the battle. I do reckon that with interior lines, the Ukrainians are better able to shift units from one sector to another, using less fuel and likely exposed to less danger in the maneuver. That ability is in itself a force-multiplier, not big in the scale of things, but certainly something that the Ukrainians are -- or ought to be -- using.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 4, 2022)

Really good artical that sheda some light on why Ukraine's military is so successful against Russian forces - and also shines some light on why Russian forces are under performing.









Ukraine’s Military Pulled Itself Out of the Ruins of 2014


U.S. training helps but isn’t the main reason for the transformation.




foreignpolicy.com

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## SaparotRob (Aug 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Really good artical that sheda some light on why Ukraine's military is so successful against Russian forces - and also shines some light on why Russian forces are under performing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You weren't kidding. A very enlightening article.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 4, 2022)

Further to my point upthread about the south being seen as the decisive arena:


_KYIV, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Thursday it had been forced to cede some territory in the east of the country in the face of a Russian offensive, and the head of the NATO military alliance said Moscow must not be allowed to win the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this week described the pressure his armed forces were under in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as "hell". He spoke of fierce fighting around the town of Avdiivka and the fortified village of Pisky, where Kyiv has acknowledged its Russian foe's "partial success" in recent days.


The Ukrainian military said on Thursday Russian forces had mounted at least two assaults on Pisky but that its troops had managed to repel them.

[...]

The Russian defence ministry confirmed its offensive.

[...]

Ukraine said the Russian offensive in the east looked like an attempt to force it to divert troops from the south where Kyiv's forces are trying to retake territory and destroy Russian supply lines as a prelude to a wider counter-offensive.

"The idea is to put military pressure on us in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk over the next few weeks ... *What is happening in the east is not what will determine the outcome of the war*," Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said in an interview on YouTube._









Ukraine under pressure in east as NATO chief says Russia must not win


President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this week described the pressure his armed forces were under in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as "hell."




www.reuters.com





I have emboldened the most relevant passage. It seems plain to me that the Ukrainians are seeing an opportunity to split the Russian forces, and the Russians are responding, trying to relieve pressure on the threatened sector.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Really good artical that sheda some light on why Ukraine's military is so successful against Russian forces - and also shines some light on why Russian forces are under performing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I like this line…

_” My assessment—that it was the United States that was unprepared for war with Russia, not Ukraine—was shared internally at this time by junior and mid-level leaders within the U.S. military itself, as evidenced by a paper circulated within the 173rd and other units and reported on by Wesley Morgan for Politico.”_

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 4, 2022)

I can sympathize with that statement. I have noticed a strong risk aversion among the political class for many years. This includes high ranking military leaders. It's easy to launch cruise missiles at a collection of tents thousands of miles from home, but fighting to win takes a whole different mindset than punitive strikes to "shock and awe".

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## GrauGeist (Aug 4, 2022)

During the Gulf war and the subsequent Iraq war, battlefield tactics were solid.
But the U.S. got drug down into the dirt fighting a long, drawn out fight with insurgents and that perhaps dulled the American battle fitness to a certain degree.
Mostly because the combat experience was no longer fighting an actual military on equal terms, it was chasing ghosts that were hiding in doorways, behind rocks, in caves and so on.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 4, 2022)

Even during the early days in Iraq, there was plenty of crazy political crap going on. A collegue of mine was imbedded with a Ukrainian unit and they were caught in an ambush near the river. The Ukrainians wanted to call in artillery, but were told it was unavailable due to the proximity to the river. Shelling was considered to have too great an environmental impact on the fragile wetland.

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Even during the early days in Iraq, there was plenty of crazy political crap going on. A collegue of mine was imbedded with a Ukrainian unit and they were caught in an ambush near the river. The Ukrainians wanted to call in artillery, but were told it was unavailable due to the proximity to the river. Shelling was considered to have too great an environmental impact on the fragile wetland.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

Western media critical of the UAF is somewhat rare vs. that of media reports of the Russians, where we're led to believe they're Orc-like buffoons. 









It Seems Ukraine Is Struggling To Form Tank Brigades


The Ukrainian army’s tank brigades are spread thin. That could help to explain why the army’s highly-anticipated counteroffensive in southern Ukraine hasn’t yet picked up much momentum.




www.forbes.com





_"It's not totally clear exactly how many tank brigades the army has. Maybe six. Maybe five. Maybe fewer. The Ukrainian army has a habit of keeping undermanned—practically non-existent—units on paper and occasionally touting them in the media."_

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## GrauGeist (Aug 5, 2022)

It's also entirely possible that Ukraine is intentionally not telling the media what they actually have, because the Russians would like to know, too...

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's also entirely possible that Ukraine is intentionally not telling the media what they actually have, because the Russians would like to know, too...


That seems prudent. Did they ever get those Polish MiG-29s from March, for example? Who knows.


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## Greg Boeser (Aug 5, 2022)

I believe a large consignment of spare parts arrived, allowing the UAF to put a large number of their grounded aircraft back in service.

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## ThomasP (Aug 5, 2022)

re spare parts, see ""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again.""


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I believe a large consignment of spare parts arrived, allowing the UAF to put a large number of their grounded aircraft back in service.


I see, but I'm referring to the Polish MiG-29s that were planned to go to Ukraine via the US base in Germany.









Scholz says Germany won't provide fighter jets to Ukraine – DW – 03/09/2022


Germany and the US have both said sending Polish MiG fighters to Ukraine would be an escalatory step. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has pleaded with NATO to provide more firepower.




www.dw.com





Did these MiGs ever make it to Ukraine?


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 5, 2022)

I have no idea, the stories kept changing.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 5, 2022)

See this post regarding Polish MiGs:






"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."


Nice! Now, how about those Polish MiG-29s from April? https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/what_is_special_about_polish_pt_91_twardy_tanks_which_ukraine_is_about_to_receive-3628.html



ww2aircraft.net


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## Denniss (Aug 5, 2022)

Harpoon action near Sevastopol ? Source may be somewhat biased so let's see if western media has something to report/confirm

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Source may be somewhat biased so let's see if western media has something to report/confirm


Thank you for setting a good example. Together we can avoid falling for propaganda from all sides.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...w-to-avoid-spreading-misinformation-1.6366136

Apply a critical eye
Consider the source
Think before sharing
That said, I hope the Ukrainians have scored another maritime success. If only they had a couple of Kilo or other SSKs. There's some submarine chatter....









Ukraine likely to get submarines from Germany | Free Press Kashmir


Berlin might provide Kiev with submarines, the Ukrainian parliament’s chairman, Ruslan Stefanchuk, revealed during a visit to Germany amid the ongoing Russian military operation in his country, international media reported. Speaking ahead of a meeting with German Defense Minister Christine...




freepresskashmir.news













Bulgaria negotiating purchase of two submarines amid Ukraine crisis







www.euractiv.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 5, 2022)

This looks to be the source of that smoke:









Damaged Russian ship spotted in Sevastopol media


UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - FRIDAY, 5 AUGUST 2022, 16:07 In the morning of 5 August a partly burned ship belonging to the Black Sea Fleet entered a bay in occupied Sevastopol. Source: Radio Svoboda's "Krym.




news.yahoo.com





Edited to clear Google's referral.
Not sure how it got in the URL, as I was directly on news.yahoo's website.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> This looks to be the source of that smoke:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That link is asking for a sketchy file download.

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## Denniss (Aug 5, 2022)

Cleaned link:








Damaged Russian ship spotted in Sevastopol media


UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - FRIDAY, 5 AUGUST 2022, 16:07 In the morning of 5 August a partly burned ship belonging to the Black Sea Fleet entered a bay in occupied Sevastopol. Source: Radio Svoboda's "Krym.




news.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Aug 5, 2022)

Three more grain ships leave Ukraine as soldiers fighting Russia in Donbas face 'hell'


As Ukrainian corn ships set off towards Turkey for inspection, Ukraine calls for the safe passage deal to extend to include other products, such as metals.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thank you for setting a good example. Together we can avoid falling for propaganda from all sides.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...w-to-avoid-spreading-misinformation-1.6366136
> 
> ...



How will they get through the Bosporus? I'm pretty sure the Montreux Accord bans warships from active warring parties transiting the Straits.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> How will they get through the Bosporus? I'm pretty sure the Montreux Accord bans warships from active warring parties transiting the Straits.


My bad, I was thinking once this war is over. The Turks have banned ALL warships, so even the Bulgarian’s plan to buy new German subs will need to wait.

It will be very interesting to see what Ukraine‘s military looks like by 2032. I imagine the old Soviet-era and much of the hodgepodge of NATO kit will have been replaced by more a more uniform, standardized and streamlined army and air force, along with a new navy fielding at least a pair of AIP SSKs. On the opposite side, god only knows what the Russian military will look like by 2032 - likely still fielding whatever T-72s surived the 2022-28? war with Ukraine.

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## Denniss (Aug 6, 2022)

AFAIR they can't ban warships from Bulgaria unless Bulgaria takes part in the war.

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## at6 (Aug 6, 2022)

Then Bulgaria could buy subs and resell or donate them to the Ukraine. How cool would that be?

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## Denniss (Aug 6, 2022)

That would be a direct violation of the treaty


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## Dimlee (Aug 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> That would be a direct violation of the treaty


Which treaty?
It will complicate Turkey's position of "negotiator", of course.


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## Dimlee (Aug 6, 2022)

Good infographics from Eastory.
Not precise but enough for the overview of Feb-Jul period.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 6, 2022)

Denniss said:


> AFAIR they can't ban warships from Bulgaria unless Bulgaria takes part in the war.


ALL warships warned to stay out.









Turkey closes the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to warships - Naval News


Turkey's MFA stated in an interview that the Montreux Convention rules will be applied due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.




www.navalnews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 6, 2022)

I’m a big fan of our troops, but really, what gaps in UAF abilities or knowledge is Canada able to fill?









Canadian troops heading to U.K. to train Ukrainian forces


Canada is sending military trainers to the United Kingdom to help teach Ukrainians how to fight invading Russian forces. Defence Minister Anita Anand announced the plan on Thursday, saying up to 225 Canadian Armed Forces members will eventually be based in Britain for an initial period of four...




www.ctvnews.ca





After decades of neglect of the CAF, we don’t have any modern kit that if donated would be overly difficult for the UAF to use. One thing we do have is more than a million ethnic Ukrainian-Canadians, like my wife whose grandparents emigrated here between the wars. So we likely have at least a few hundred fluently Ukrainian speaking soldiers to choose a training contingent from.

Canada’s UkrainIans are big supporters.









Entire Ukrainian Battalion Formed By 550 Canadian Freedom Soldiers


According to a publication called The National Post, “So many citizens of Canada have shown up in Ukraine to fight for the country’s new foreign legion, the organization has set up a separate Canadian battalion, says a Ukrainian government source.” That battalion, which is based in the Ukrainian...




bipartisanreport.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 6, 2022)

_Aug 6 (Reuters) - Russia's war in Ukraine is about to enter a new phase, with most fighting shifting to a nearly 350 kilometre (217 mile) front stretching southwest from near Zaporizhzhia to Kherson, parallel to the Dnieper River, British military intelligence said on Saturday.

Russian forces are almost certainly amassing in the south of Ukraine, anticipating a counter-offensive or in preparation for a possible assault, the UK's Ministry of Defence said on Twitter.

Long convoys of Russian military trucks, tanks, towed artillery and other weapons continue to move away from Ukraine's Donbas region and are headed southwest._









War in Ukraine set to enter new phase -UK military intelligence


Russia's war in Ukraine is about to enter a new phase, with most fighting shifting to a nearly 350 kilometre (217 mile) front stretching southwest from near Zaporizhzhia to Kherson, parallel to the Dnieper River, British military intelligence said on Saturday.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 6, 2022)

And --

_WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.

The package is expected to be announced as early as Monday and would add to about $8.8 billion in aid the United States has given Ukraine since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24.

[...]

However, if signed in its current form, it would be valued at $1 billion and include munitions for HIMARS, NASAMS surface-to-air missile system ammunition and as many as 50 M113 armored medical transports.


The new package follows a recent Pentagon decision to allow Ukrainians to receive medical treatment at a U.S. military hospital in Germany near Ramstein air base. read more

Last Monday, the Pentagon announced a separate security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $550 million, including additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)._









Exclusive: U.S. readies new $1 billion Ukraine weapons package


The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Aug 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m a big fan of our troops, but really, what gaps in UAF abilities or knowledge is Canada able to fill?


I have the feeling that it's the UAF that will be training both American and Canadian forces. From the many posts and links I remember reading, one of them stated that although American personnel have been training Ukrainian troops, it's the Americans who are actually benefitting the most. I think it's from a post from GrauGeist. Ukraine will be joining NATO. Ukraine is the one European nation whose dealings with Soviet/Russian forces isn't theoretical. We need them!

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## Dimlee (Aug 6, 2022)

Interview with American advisor to CinC of UAF.








Dan Rice, Special Advisor to CinC Valeriy Zaluzhnyi


The beta test is over. Time for NATO to send in more arms to evict the Russians — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 6, 2022)

Maybe 4 North Macedonian Su-25 are on the way to Ukrainia, wholes or in parts.

Due to the fact that they were grounded for some 18 years, probably (if true) for spare parts. So there must be some UAF Su-25 flying or in a flyable state that need spare parts.









Ukraine Situation Report: Rumors Swirl Around Macedonian Su-25 Delivery


Despite the unconfirmed reports, where exactly the Macedonian Su-25 jets are at this point in time is unclear. But we do know they’re gone.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Russian forces are almost certainly amassing in the south of Ukraine, anticipating a counter-offensive or in preparation for a possible assault, the UK's Ministry of Defence said on Twitter._


No powers of anticipation we’re required. The Ukrainian government and the West’s media have both been announcing for a month that Ukraine’s next move is a large counter offensive to retake Kherson. The Russians would be daft not to take preparatory steps.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 6, 2022)

This brings to mind Operation Fortitude during WWII.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 6, 2022)

Yes, the signals have been telegraphed. Russia would be foolish to ignore them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No powers of anticipation we’re required. The Ukrainian government and the West’s media have both been announcing for a month that Ukraine’s next move is a large counter offensive to retake Kherson. The Russians would be daft not to take preparatory steps.



They've actually been attacking along that vector for a month or so now. It just took a while for the meat-grinder in the Donbas to cede headlines.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 6, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Maybe 4 North Macedonian Su-25 are on the way to Ukrainia, wholes or in parts.


They’ll be no ex-Soviet kit left in Europe by Sept at this rate.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 6, 2022)

Bulgaria is holding onto their MiG-29s until their F-16s are delivered.

However, it seems that their Su-25 fleet (eight aircraft) are no longer in inventory as of a few months ago.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I have the feeling that it's the UAF that will be training both American and Canadian forces. From the many posts and links I remember reading, one of them stated that although American personnel have been training Ukrainian troops, it's the Americans who are actually benefitting the most. I think it's from a post from GrauGeist. Ukraine will be joining NATO. Ukraine is the one European nation whose dealings with Soviet/Russian forces isn't theoretical. We need them!


Apparently the Ukrainians now training in the UK with Canadian support are Ukrainian civilians being trained into NATO spec combat soldiers. If this is the case I could see Ukrainian-Canadians from the CAF being of use.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 7, 2022)

North Korea is going to send some 100.000 men to the war. Russian TV said for security and rebuilding in the Donbas.

Pyongyang acknowedge it will send the slaves workers.









Ukraine Situation Report: Army Of North Korean ‘Volunteers’ Said To Be Ready To Help Russia


Russian state TV floats a report that 100,000 North Koreans could backfill mounting losses and rebuild occupied territory.




www.thedrive.com





A couple more things. More low level ukrainians helos and a russian soldier blowing itself driving over an antitank mine. This could be a suicide mission or simply a try running his luck? Maybe a tik tok viral challenge for russian soldiers?

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## GTX (Aug 7, 2022)

Nuclear watchdog warns shelling at Ukrainian power plant could lead to disaster


The UN's nuclear watchdog chief warns of a "very real risk of a nuclear disaster" after shelling damages a high-voltage power line at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 7, 2022)

Opinion: 'Realists' have it wrong: Putin, not Zelensky, is the one who can end the war.

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## Dimlee (Aug 7, 2022)

Wild Weasel?


https://mil.in.ua/en/news/us-made-agm-88-missiles-started-striking-russian-air-defense-positions-in-ukraine/



This picture appeared in Telegram channels:

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## tomo pauk (Aug 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Wild Weasel?
> 
> 
> https://mil.in.ua/en/news/us-made-agm-88-missiles-started-striking-russian-air-defense-positions-in-ukraine/
> ...



Wild weasel = good (or bad, if you're on the receiving end).
That MiG-29 in the picture is armed with 6 AA missiles, though.

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## J_P_C (Aug 7, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Wild weasel = good (or bad, if you're on the receiving end).
> That MiG-29 in the picture is armed with 6 AA missiles, though.


correct - 2xR27 + 4xR73

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## ThomasP (Aug 7, 2022)

The later AGM-88 series have the ability to use an "austere" method of integration with the launch aircraft. A black box with encrypted short range data link to/from the missile can be placed in any convenient position in the cockpit, with the missile either pre-programmed with map-coordinates and/or target frequency range/emission pattern. The missile seeker can then be used to recognize the programmed target profile and let the pilot know that it has found a/the target. The black box has a built-in GPS so the pilot can know if he is within the most basic launch parameters. The pilot then launches the missile in the appropriate direction. The missiles can be pre-programmed back at the base before the sortie, with data taken from reconnaissance units.

Although the system is quite sophisticated in some ways, it is also very simple in other ways. As an example, the target coordinates can (if required) be programmed into the missile guidance system by manually entering the information using a handheld data entry terminal. Or, in fully integrated and hard wired systems, the targeting data can be transferred from other platforms (drones for example) to the launch platform in real time via more sophisticated data links.

Also see "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's a good look at what's going on with Wagner in Ukraine.


Wagner becoming less secretive.









Russia’s private military contractor Wagner comes out of the shadows in Ukraine war


Mercenary group does not officially exist but is playing a more public role and openly recruiting in Russia




www.theguardian.com

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## ThomasP (Aug 7, 2022)

US Senate voted to ratify Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

"https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3586658-senate-ratifies-accession-of-sweden-and-finland-to-nato/"

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## SaparotRob (Aug 7, 2022)

I think that brings the count to 23 out of 30. Is Turkey still playing games? Was Turkey trying to get a better gas deal from Russia?

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## buffnut453 (Aug 7, 2022)

Russian commanders dismissed over "poor performance" in Ukraine: U.K. MoD


The U.K.'s defense ministry gave a scathing assessment of Russia's military performance during the war.




www.newsweek.com

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## SaparotRob (Aug 8, 2022)

So the Butcher of Aleppo is unemployed. Maybe we should all chip in and buy him a card or something.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 8, 2022)

Or a nice hemp necktie that's worn under the branch of a cottonwood tree...

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## SaparotRob (Aug 8, 2022)

Stylish!


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## ThomasP (Aug 8, 2022)

To be fair, Turkey is waiting to see if Sweden & Finland deliver on their recent promise re the individuals identified by Turkey as terrorists. There are reports that Sweden & Finland are required to extradite them to Turkey, but as far as I have been able to find out that is incorrect - basically Turkey is only requiring that Sweden & Finland expel and no longer provide any form of sanctuary to the individuals identified as terrorists. In addition Sweden & Finland must start treating the PKK etal as a terrorist organization - as they are identified as such by EU & NATO - and behave within the guidelines which require preventing terrorist organizations from operating out of NATO member countries. There is more to the agreement, but this seems to be the main sticking point.

"Nato summit: Turkey pushes Finland and Sweden on extradition after deal"

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## SaparotRob (Aug 8, 2022)

I see the article is dated 29 June. Are there any updates?


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## ThomasP (Aug 8, 2022)

"Turkey says Sweden, Finland haven't extradited terrorists as per deal for NATO membership"

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## Denniss (Aug 8, 2022)

As usual the dictator of the Bospurus forgets that Sweden and Finland are democracies. Any such extradiction request from Turkey must uphold to local laws, can be appealed at court and the turkish claims verified or denied there.
And we probably all know how many of these fake requests Turkey issued via international police organizations (even as urgent red notice requests) with almost all of them denied. AFAIR Turkey was even blocked from issuing red notice requests after massive misuse.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So the Butcher of Aleppo is unemployed. Maybe we should all chip in and buy him a card or something.


I say we send him a bouquet of sunflowers.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 8, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> To be fair, Turkey is waiting to see if Sweden & Finland deliver on their recent promise re the individuals identified by Turkey as terrorists.


This is a great opportunity for Sweden and Finland to rid themselves of the PKK and their lot. Thanks, not grumbles should be aimed Turkey's way.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 8, 2022)

Let's just do whatever it takes to score the big win.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Russian commanders dismissed over "poor performance" in Ukraine: U.K. MoD
> 
> 
> The U.K.'s defense ministry gave a scathing assessment of Russia's military performance during the war.
> ...


If I was a Russian commander I'd hope to be dismissed rather than sent to lead from the front where a Bayraktar will hunt me down.


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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 8, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I say we send him a bouquet of sunflowers.


Nah, just a single AGM88.

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## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

Amnesty apologises over Ukraine report described as propaganda gift for Moscow


Amnesty International apologises for "distress and anger" caused by its report criticising Ukrainian troops for their presence in residential areas — a report the human rights group's local chief resigned over.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

Ukraine decries 'Russian nuclear terror' as power plant shelled again


Both Russia and Ukraine are accusing each other of damaging Europe's largest nuclear power plant in attacks which the Atomic Energy Agency says present a "very real risk of nuclear disaster".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

Ukrainian woman risks her life to rescue wild animals from war


An economist by profession, 50-year-old Natalia Popova has found a new purpose in life: rescuing wild animals and pets from the devastation wrought by the war in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

"I'm the PM of Estonia. We can't allow Putin to think he's won something"


Our focus should be simple: Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won. There can be no return to "business as usual". Only "no business at all." She was born under the Soviet occupation. She remembers the repression of life under...




www.dailykos.com

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## Glider (Aug 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So the Butcher of Aleppo is unemployed. Maybe we should all chip in and buy him a card or something.


What I find interesting is that he was brought in to stop the collapse of morale and string of defeats which the Russian forces had been suffering. 

Looking at it from a Russian perspective he did what he was told to do, steady the ship and use brute force without mercy to make gains in the two contested regions. One of which he did take over and was making gains in the second. Ukraine have clearly been making gains in the South and Russia seems to be sending considerable forces to the south. I know that some senior people with far more facts and information available to them than I, are saying that Russia is going to launch a second front in the south, however this I cannot see. 

For me this doesn't quite ring true. If Russia was confident of holding the Ukraine forces in the south I cannot help but feel that they would have completed the taking over of the second region. Then they could claim a victory in line with their second version of the stated goals, while Ukraine uses resources it cannot afford in the South..

I feel that the reason why the forces are being sent South is to stop a collapse or at least a significant defeat with the loss of the major city in the area. If they can attack, then no doubt they will, but to me it feels as if that's a secondary goal. It's this fear of a major defeat in the South which would be the reason for his sacking, and the redeployment.

At the beginning, strategically Ukraine were reacting to the actions of Russia. Now it seems to be Russia reacting to the actions of the Ukraine, which is a significant achievement which no one would have predicted.

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## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

Russia has so far retained the 'initiative' in Ukraine — but there are signs that is changing


Ukrainian soldiers are striking where they wish and forcing the Russians into difficult decisions about the deployment of forces across the south and east of the country, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Aug 8, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia has so far retained the 'initiative' in Ukraine — but there are signs that is changing
> 
> 
> Ukrainian soldiers are striking where they wish and forcing the Russians into difficult decisions about the deployment of forces across the south and east of the country, writes Mick Ryan.
> ...


Maybe I wasn't too far off the mark

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## Dimlee (Aug 8, 2022)

Another assistance package.
Includes 75,000 155 mm rounds and an undisclosed number of NASAMS and HIMARS ammunition.








$1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine


The Department of Defense announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $1 billion to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.



www.defense.gov

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## Dimlee (Aug 8, 2022)

About HARMs.
_"The Pentagon announced Monday that the US has sent anti-radar missiles for Ukrainian aircraft to target Russian radar systems. ...
A defense official told CNN the type of missile sent was the AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM). "_









Pentagon for the first time acknowledges sending previously undisclosed anti-radar missiles to Ukraine


Ukraine accused Russian forces on Sunday of launching rockets at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, further ratcheting fears of an accident a day after the UN watchdog warned that fighting at the occupied complex risked a "nuclear disaster." Follow live updates here.




edition.cnn.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So the Butcher of Aleppo is unemployed. Maybe we should all chip in and buy him a card or something.

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## Juha3 (Aug 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This is a great opportunity for Sweden and Finland to rid themselves of the PKK and their lot. Thanks, not grumbles should be aimed Turkey's way.



The problem is not so simple, the PKK is a clear case but Turkey sees People's Protection Units (YPG) which was and maybe still is the main ally of the USA in Syria, as a wing of the PKK. And Gulen lives in the USA in exile and probably there are many Gulenists even in Canada.

I haven't been following the matter closely, but I noticed some time ago that Turkey accuses a Kurd whom Turkey wants to extradite of defaming Erdogan. It will probably be difficult to get the handover through in court, but I don't know what kind of defamation is in question.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

I’m glad to see Canadian ground forces in the Baltic, but on the seas we’re letting our side down.









With resources stretched, Canadian navy warships out of NATO forces for first time since 2014


Experts say it's part of the growing trade-offs Canada is having to make with its navy, which has a shrinking fleet of aging ships and a lack of trained sailors




nationalpost.com





_“For the first time in eight years, Canadian warships are not involved in either of two NATO naval task forces charged with patrolling European waters and defending against Russian threats.”_

Canada needs to replace the Halifax-class frigates and Victoria-class SSKs asap. But the first of the RCN's 8,000 ton Type 26 frigates (nearly double the displacement of the Halifax class) won't begin construction until 2024 with the first unit not entering service until the early 2030s. Meanwhile, there appears to be zero initiative to replace the thirty year old Victoria class subs. And, the Kingston class OPVs will eventually need replacing. We're now reaping the results of decades of neglect of the CAF, where we should have instead have ordered one ship after each one left the yards. And now we also need to buy the F-35 for the RCAF. Canada's military budget needs a boost.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

Does Ukraine hitting Crimea equate to the UAF striking beyond its borders? Of course, Crimea was Ukrainian territory before 2014.

Ukraine Live Updates: Explosion Rocks Russian Air Base in Crimea

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## GrauGeist (Aug 9, 2022)

Crimea is still internationally recognized as Ukrainian.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 9, 2022)

Whoops! So much for August in the sun! Guess they aren't happy if the missiles are going east rather than west

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Crimea is still internationally recognized as Ukrainian.


True, but what does the madman think and do?









Russia could go nuclear if Ukraine strikes Crimea


As the war in Ukraine is about to head into its sixth month, the ferocity with which it is fought shows no signs of abating – neither on the battlefield nor in the rhetoric emerging from Moscow and…




asiatimes.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> True, but what does the madman think and do?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So far Russia has threatened everyone with just about every term imaginable, like the "swift and dire consequences" to Finland if they considered attempted joined NATO and the thinly veiled threat of nuking London and so on.

*IF* Russia were to deploy tactical nukes in Ukraine, there is the Budapest Memorandum (which Russia has violated in 2014 and again this year) that gives the U.S. and UK legal right to respond if Russia does so.

And *technically* speaking, the U.S. and UK (not NATO) have been justified in getting on the ground in Ukraine since February and providing military aid is well within the momeorandum's framework.

Here's the first five (of six) points to the memorandum:
1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Ukraine.

3. Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.

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## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

One killed, five injured as blasts rock Russian air base in annexed Crimea


Russia's Defence Ministry says munitions blew up at the Saky base, and emphasises that the installations have not been shelled.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

Despite bans, Russian disinformation spreading in new ways


Russia has found ways around the European Union's ban on its top channels for spreading war propaganda.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

Russian airlines strip jets for spare parts as Ukraine war sanctions hit industry


A Western aviation industry source says it is "only a matter of time" before Russia-based planes are cannibalised.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

What we know about the latest nuclear scare at a giant Ukrainian power plant


Heavy fighting is again raging around Europe's largest nuclear plant, with Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of shelling the facility. What can be done to stave off disaster?




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

Ukraine calls for demilitarised zone around shelled nuclear plant


Ukraine calls for urgent UN-led intervention and the presence of peacekeepers to secure the shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Here's the first five (of six) points to the memorandum:
> 1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
> 
> 2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Ukraine.
> ...


Does Putin or his minions ever mention Russia’s agreement to this? When this war is over, what will become of Russia? There is no return to the diplomatic and trade situation of before unless Russia is an entirely different place. Post 1945, Germany and Japan had to completely change their way of thinking and living before they were welcomed back into the international order.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Putin or his minions ever mention Russia’s agreement to this? When this war is over, what will become of Russia? There is no return to the diplomatic and trade situation of before unless Russia is an entirely different place. Post 1945, Germany and Japan had to completely change their way of thinking and living before they were welcomed back into the international order.


This is the crux of the whole matter. This is not just another conflict.

The difference in the World since the disintegration of the Soviet Union up till now has been marked.

Quality of life for so many has increased, including those in Russia. 

There is now a simple choice. Get on with the way we were heading or go back to the crap that held everyone back for decades. There is no
compromise in this and some countries who think the Putin method is the way to go need to be shown that it is no longer going to be allowed.

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## Dimlee (Aug 9, 2022)

What a day... Multiple explosions in three locations in the occupied territories.
Distances to the frontline, according to Deepstatemap:
Kyrylivka - 127 km, Genichesk - 157 km, Novofedorivka (Crimea) - 207 km.
Until today, the longest-range Ukrainian weapon was Tochka U with (officially announced)110 km.

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## Glider (Aug 9, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> What a day... Multiple explosions in three locations in the occupied territories.
> Distances to the frontline, according to Deepstatemap:
> Kyrylivka - 127 km, Genichesk - 157 km, Novofedorivka (Crimea) - 207 km.
> Until today, the longest-range Ukrainian weapon was Tochka U with (officially announced)110 km.


I was wondering about that. It starting to look as if Logistics is as dangerous a posting as the front line. They cannot all be 'user error' and it implies that the Russian Front line is porous at best


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> One killed, five injured as blasts rock Russian air base in annexed Crimea
> 
> 
> Russia's Defence Ministry says munitions blew up at the Saky base, and emphasises that the installations have not been shelled.
> ...

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> What a day... Multiple explosions in three locations in the occupied territories.
> Distances to the frontline, according to Deepstatemap:
> Kyrylivka - 127 km, Genichesk - 157 km, Novofedorivka (Crimea) - 207 km.
> Until today, the longest-range Ukrainian weapon was Tochka U with (officially announced)110 km.


Indeed. It’s clear that if you‘re an invader within the territory of Ukraine you are no longer untouchable, wherever you are.



This effectively demonstrates that the Russians are not safe anywhere. And puts the whole Black Sea region under threat.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 9, 2022)

Aftermath of the Saki/Saky airbase strike in Crimea will be interesting to view when the opint satellite photos start filtering out in the next 4 to 6 hours. Videos show at least four (probable) bomb/missile hits, all of which produced significant secondary explosions (three of which were VERY large indeed). Looks like the ammunition dumps and fuel farms were wiped out.

Open source twitterati counted 15 Su-24s, 13 Su-27/30 types, 1 Il-76, a half dozen other fixed wing transport aircraft and six helicopters at the base from satellite imagery taken the morning of the attack. At least three or four aircraft were parked in close proximity (under 50 meters) to munitions buildings or fueling infrastructure. 



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZuqaeOX0AE5VBm?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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## Denniss (Aug 9, 2022)

Did Ukraine receive MGM-140 ATACMS rockets for their MLRS/HIMARS launchers?
Unless they attacked the airbase with aircraft I see no other option to attack at that range


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Did Ukraine receive MGM-140 ATACMS rockets for their MLRS/HIMARS launchers?
> Unless they attacked the airbase with aircraft I see no other option to attack at that range


Apparently so, if this July Tweet‘s claims can be verifed.



I look forward to the satellite images once the sun’s up over Crimea. Sunrise is 5:40 am, so by 7 am latest we should have a clear picture.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 9, 2022)

No official delivery of ATACMS yet. US officials commented yesterday that they may be in the next package of armaments. Note the tweet above says they "will be getting" ATACMS. Those M270s were supplied by the UK, and I don't think they've acquired ATACMS yet.

Lots of speculation about what happened right now. An unidentified Ukrainian defense official said "a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used" for the strike. Read into that what you will. Some military blogs are speculating that Ukraine used up some Grim-2 medium range missiles it had been developing - although there has been no indication the system was anywhere close to operation. Other speculations are: a drone strike from sea launch platforms, similar to the Black Sea Fleet headquarters strike; sea launched Harpoon strike; a good old fashioned commando raid or partisan activity.

Russia is claiming that there was a "self-detonation of munitions" at the base. How considerate. Even Russia's own munitions are against them.

EDIT: Footage/pictures purportedly of Saki Airbase starting to emerge. So far at least one Su-24 and one Su-30 appear damaged beyond repair.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

My wife is Ukrainian-Canadian, so I was always a fan, but the Ukrainian people just rock! The last time we saw such underdog success was in the early Arab-Israeli when pre-nuke Israel fought ALL of its neighbours at once and won. When this is over the wife and I will definitely be visiting Ukraine and spending some tourist dollars.






The World Is Falling in Love With Ukraine. It’s Beautiful—and Painful—to Watch


It should not have taken all of this—air raids and casualties, threats of nuclear attacks, and inflated gas prices—to learn Ukraine’s location on a map.




www.elle.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 9, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Russia is claiming that there was a "self-detonation of munitions" at the base. How considerate. Even Russia's own munitions are against them.



An article I read referred to smoking cigarettes being a possible cause according to the Russians.

What idiot doesn't know that a flight-line is no-smoking for a reason? Even if the Russian explanation is perfectly true, it bespeaks a very shoddy level of training and/or discipline. It reads like a shitty excuse to me.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It reads like a shitty excuse to me.



Show me a Russian excuse that wasn't shitty! I mean, really, please...from the excuse for the (not an) invasion, to the "we achieved our objectives and now we're refocusing" form of retreat, to the "the West made us do it." They're all laughable.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 9, 2022)

Then there was the Moskva, which just according to Moscow, had a fire onboard,.
Then it was ok, with no issues.
Then it was in rough seas but still ok.
Then the entire "crew" filmed being given awards during a review.
Then they reported it "may have" been sunk.

How can anyone one take them seriously?

If they told me the sky was blue, I'd immediately go outside and stare long and hard, just to be sure.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Show me a Russian excuse that wasn't shitty! I mean, really, please...from the excuse for the (not an) invasion, to the "we achieved our objectives and now we're refocusing" form of retreat, to the "the West made us do it." They're all laughable.



Right, the extra adjective was redundant, not to mention repetitive.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An article I read referred to smoking cigarettes being a possible cause according to the Russians.



Yes. Multiple, simultaneous cigarette smokers over the course of nearly 30 minutes....
Shades of the Iraqi Ministry of Information circa 2003 here.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> What idiot doesn't know that a flight-line is no-smoking for a reason?


You reminded me of this smoking officer aboard HMS Ark Royal.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You reminded me of this smoking officer aboard HMS Ark Royal.
> 
> View attachment 681267



I have to admit, I'm so mesmerized by those windscreens that I cannot see the smoker.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 9, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Yes. Multiple, simultaneous cigarette smokers over the course of nearly 30 minutes....
> Shades of the Iraqi Ministry of Information circa 2003 here.



Mighty rude of the Ukrainians to interrupt a smoke-break.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Mighty rude of the Ukrainians to interrupt a smoke-break.



Well, they keep telling us that smoking kills. What more proof is needed?

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## at6 (Aug 10, 2022)

Nothing tastier than crispy Orc. Beats original recipe.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An article I read referred to smoking cigarettes being a possible cause according to the Russians.
> 
> What idiot doesn't know that a flight-line is no-smoking for a reason? Even if the Russian explanation is perfectly true, it bespeaks a very shoddy level of training and/or discipline. It reads like a shitty excuse to me.


Perhaps they were (and still are) trying to put up a smokescreen ?

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

No satalite imagery yet of the Saky airbase? All I’m seeing online are the usually tabloid, clickbait sites repeating the same news from yesterday. Is the airfield cratered and aircraft destroyed?


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 10, 2022)

These excuses are like watching the Keystone Cops

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## wlewisiii (Aug 10, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> These excuses are like watching the Keystone Cops


The Keystone Cops actually had a plot.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

Nine aircraft claimed destroyed. 









Ukraine says 9 Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea blasts


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's air force said Wednesday that nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in massive explosions at an air base in Crimea amid speculation they were the result of a Ukrainian attack that would represent a significant escalation in the war .




apnews.com





Now, what of the runways?

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



There a some great posts linked to this tweet!

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 10, 2022)

I love this!

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

Did you see the HIMARS launching a cigarette?

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

The initiative and momentum is definitely turning the way of the Ukrainians. The Russians, instead of invading and taking the offensive, are now more and more the defenders.

I think it's only a matter of time before the UAF start operating Leo2 tanks. On that topic, were these old Leo 1 tanks or Leo 2s?









Spain Withdraws Offer to Send Leopard Tanks to Ukraine


Spain has canceled a plan to send its German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine to help defend against the ongoing Russian invasion.




www.thedefensepost.com





What happened to this German offer of last month?









German offer to Ukraine: 20 Leopard 2 tanks, delivery every month


After three months of reflection time, Germany may provide Ukraine with 20 Leopard 2 tanks, delivery every month. At least that's what Roderich Kiesewetter syas




bulgarianmilitary.com





Here in Canada we have a hundred plus Leo2 tanks that we acquired for use in Afghanistan, now doing nothing. I vote we give some or all to Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The initiative and momentum is definitely turning the way of the Ukrainians. The Russians, instead of invading and taking the offensive, are now more and more the defenders.
> 
> I think it's only a matter of time before the UAF start operating Leo2 tanks. On that topic, were these old Leo 1 tanks or Leo 2s?
> 
> ...



Spain had Leo 2s. They never operated the Leo 1. Prior to the Leo 2s, Spain operated M-60s.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Spain had Leo 2s. They never operated the Leo 1. Prior to the Leo 2s, Spain operated M-60s.


Thanks. The article suggests that the Spanish Leo 2s are in terrible conditions, and thus unsuitable for donation to Ukraine. 

_"They are "in an absolutely deplorable state" and could be a danger to the people firing them, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said on Tuesday."_









Spain says its mothballed German-made tanks in no fit state to send to Ukraine


Spain cannot send its mothballed Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine as they are "in an absolutely deplorable state" and could be a danger to the people firing them, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said on Tuesday.




www.reuters.com





I find this an unlikely reason to rescind the offer, as even tanks in rough shape can quickly be refurbished by any of the half dozen European countries that operate the Leo 2.


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## WARSPITER (Aug 10, 2022)

How many HIMAR systems does Ukraine have ?

Over the last month there have been Russian claims that they have destroyed eleven.

Possibly correct or keystone accounting ?


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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

karma returns

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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> How many HIMAR systems does Ukraine have ?
> 
> Over the last month there have been Russian claims that they have destroyed eleven.
> 
> Possibly correct or keystone accounting ?


by official data 16 HIMARS and probably 6 MLRS/MARS has been delivered - considering russian data most of launchers have been eliminated - .... yes for sure....


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> karma returns



I see a traffic jam. Hardly karma.

What's she saying? I assume she's complaining about the traffic and not being able to go where she wants, but I find no translation.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nine aircraft claimed destroyed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If it helps, I’ll send over a carton of cigarettes.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I see a traffic jam. Hardly karma.
> 
> What's she saying? I assume she's complaining about the traffic and not being able to go where she wants, but I find no translation.


These are Russians trying to get out of Crimea.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> These are Russians trying to get out of Crimea.


.. and it is karma that they’re terrified.

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If it helps, I’ll send over a carton of cigarettes.


What a lovely thought. I donate also a carton of these, a local ukrainian brand. They surely will like those.

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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I see a traffic jam. Hardly karma.
> 
> What's she saying? I assume she's complaining about the traffic and not being able to go where she wants, but I find no translation.


no she is complainig they have to escape from her beloved Crimea, and yes right now traffic jam to the bridge is 100km long - tourists and russians living in crimea going back to mother russia after Saki base attack...

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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> What a lovely thought. I donate also a carton of these, a local ukrainian brand. They surely will like those.
> 
> View attachment 681358


smoking is truly deadly habit....

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

Another smoking related fatality.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Other speculations are: a drone strike from sea launch platforms, similar to the Black Sea Fleet headquarters strike; sea launched Harpoon strike;* a good old fashioned commando raid or partisan activity.*


_"The blasts were the work of military special forces and partisan guerrillas, a Ukrainian official said."_










Ukraine Live Updates: Damage in Air Base Blasts Appears Worse Than Russia Claimed


Crimea’s leader said one person was killed and more than 250 people had to evacuate their homes after the explosions on Tuesday. The blasts were the work of military special forces and partisan guerrillas, a Ukrainian official said.




www.nytimes.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> .. and it is karma that they’re terrified.


Yes, Russians are now reaping what their leader sowed.
For the first time since Putin attacked Ukraine, Russian people are getting a taste of what Ukrainians have suffered (evacuating, bombs/rockets exploding nearby) from the start.

In the video, she's upset about all this, but hey, though shit...

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

Memories of the SAS visit to Pebble Island.









The SAS Raid on Pebble Island - Think Defence


Pebble Island lies to the north of West Falkland and in 1982, its small airstrip was subject to a daring raid by the SAS.




www.thinkdefence.co.uk





This might be the first time in eight years that UAF troops have publicly set foot on Crimea.

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## GTX (Aug 10, 2022)

Ukraine says nine Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea blasts


Ukraine stops short of publicly claiming responsibility for the explosions at a Russian air base, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vows to retake the Crimean peninsula.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 10, 2022)

Ukrainians use new smartphone app to make 3D records of war-threatened buildings


Ukrainian volunteers are using smartphone scanners to make digital records of buildings and monuments under threat from Russia's invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 10, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

GTX said:


>

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## GTX (Aug 10, 2022)

Russian journalist who staged live TV protest could face 10 years in jail for latest act of defiance


If convicted, Marina Ovsyannikova faces up to 10 years in prison under a new law that penalises statements against the military and was brought into force shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

considering amount of damages special forces have to transport explosives in column of trailers

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 10, 2022)

Cripes, I think more than one cigarette was involved!

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> considering amount of damages special forces have to transport explosives in column of trailers



Did they hit a car park or an airbase?


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## J_P_C (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did they hit a car park or an airbase?


 - listen russian MOD - it was "cigarette accident". Last scene showing car merged with probably element of the wing or tail stabilizer of the large airplane. Explosions had to be spectacular at least.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

Before and (unverified) after images.



This is the moment when Russia lost the war. Ukraine clearly has the ability and will to hit Russia’s land, sea and air forces anywhere within Ukraine’s pre-2014 internationally recognized borders. Meanwhile all Russia can do is lob dumb rockets from behind their hastily prepared defences.

This has become John Wick vs. Rodney Dangerfield. The former, beloved by his fans worldwide, with now near unlimited latest Gen weaponry, seeking revenge and restitution; the latter relying on 70s rubbish, fumbling about, bemoaning their lack of respect. The eventual outcome is clear.

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## Dimlee (Aug 10, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Aug 10, 2022)

Just a heads-up: if you see "OSINT" on or attached to an image, it means it's from "Open Source INTelligence" and is legit.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

As this vid says above, a likely next target will be Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia, which cuts Crimea off from Russia.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just a heads-up: if you see "OSINT" on or attached to an image, it means it's from "Open Source INTelligence" and is legit.



Only if it comes from a recognized source. Any Tom, Dick or Ivan could modify existing satellite imagery to paint a compelling but inaccurate picture....and they can slap OSINT on it to make it look official. If it ain't OSINT from a recognized intelligence body or a non-partisan organization (e.g. vetted not-for-profit etc), then be very careful about forwarding it.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 10, 2022)

Possibly 24 aircraft destroyed

"The daylight attack, which triggered 10 or more explosions at Saki air base, home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, burned to the ground as many as eight Su-27 fighters, four Su-30 fighter-bombers, five Su-24 bombers, six Mi-8 helicopters and a unique Il-20 telemetry aircraft, according to a Russian source."

Based on the pics Dimlee posted, its certainly more than 9 the Ukrainians claimed.









A Ukrainian Raid Destroyed A Lot Of Russian Aircraft—And Could Force Russian Squadrons To Pull Back


The Ukrainian attack on a Russian airfield in occupied Crimea on Tuesday apparently destroyed a lot of aircraft. It easily was the biggest single-day loss for Russian air power since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in late February. And it could shape Russian air operations moving forward.




www.forbes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

If I was Russia I’d now place my combat aircraft in Belarus and Russia, where Ukraine can‘t dare to strike. Of course that’s a lot of vulnerable transit time and fuel needed to support Russian troops fighting to keep Kherson.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 10, 2022)

Reporting suggests that the attack was conducted by UKR SF and not by long-range missiles. If so, it's a fascinating commentary on Russia's inability to protect its forces even far in the rear.

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## Dimlee (Aug 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Reporting suggests that the attack was conducted by UKR SF and not by long-range missiles. If so, it's a fascinating commentary on Russia's inability to protect its forces even far in the rear.


I travelled through that area when I was younger. Flat terrain, very dry with little vegetation. Bushes and grass are literally burned out in the summer. A lot of people around during the tourist season. If special forces were involved, it was really the mission impossible.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I travelled through that area when I was younger. Flat terrain, very dry with little vegetation. Bushes and grass are literally burned out in the summer. A lot of people around during the tourist season. If special forces were involved, it was really the mission impossible.


I was surprised to find just how much areas in Bulgaria (particularly the area near Plovdiv) and Ukraine resemble Caliornia's central valley both in appearance and terrain.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Now, what of the runways?



I' be surprised if they were knocked out of action. It generally takes special-purpose munitions delivered by aircraft to do that reliably.


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## Jabberwocky (Aug 10, 2022)

Russian military bloggers and open source satellite wonks have been tallying the losses (destroyed or damaged beyond repair) at Saki Airbase, with the counts coming in around 20 to 25 aircraft permanently out of action.

Fixed wing:
Seven to nine Su-27s
Four to five Su-24s
Four Su-30s
One Il-20

Rotary wing:
Four or six Mi-8s

Four smaller ammunition dumps gone as well. Interestingly, the main ammunition storage area and the fuel farm appear to have survived intact. So those big booms captured on video were from the smaller storage areas.

Lots of aircraft in protected revetments were destroyed/damaged, adding credence to the special forces hypothesis. One of the more interesting theories is that several teams were inserted by sea, and then walked the rest of the way carrying drones capable of dropping multiple munitions. These flew over the perimeter, picked out an individual target, dropped a munition and then moved onto the next target. Anything too big was avoided, for fear of taking out the drone itself.

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## MiTasol (Aug 10, 2022)

How much aid is Australia giving








We fact checked Anthony Albanese on Australia's contribution to Ukraine. Here's what we found


Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Australia is the largest non-NATO contributor to Ukraine. RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 10, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> How much aid is Australia giving
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Albo got it wrong, but no matter, any and all help to Ukraine is welcomed, and Australia is giving more than many other nations.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

So there are are 23 countries that have ratified Finland and Sweden so far. Anyone have information where we stand with the remaining seven?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> So there are are 23 countries that have ratified Finland and Sweden so far. Anyone have information where we stand with the remaining seven?



Map:







Dark grey are the undecideds. Blue are the yea votes.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

Thanks!


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## J_P_C (Aug 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


>



it looks like air ride for me - well planned and excellent executed


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## J_P_C (Aug 11, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Russian military bloggers and open source satellite wonks have been tallying the losses (destroyed or damaged beyond repair) at Saki Airbase, with the counts coming in around 20 to 25 aircraft permanently out of action.
> 
> Fixed wing:
> Seven to nine Su-27s
> ...


let's make such mental excercise - based on publicly known facts - during last 4 days serious part of ru air defence in the area has been eliminated, at least some of the using HARM missiles (not realy needed for SF operation with insertion from the sea), than we have surprise attack on Saki air base with demages suggesting heavy weapon usage, this one on distance ~ 300km from the front line - in the area extremly difficult for the SF. - some of wrecks are located in trenches which is suggesting direct hits rather than secondary casulties of single big explosion - UAF personnel has been seen in US during last couple months - they even made some public interviews. Question which crossed my mind is -how may looks like F-15E wearing trident sign on the vertical tail ....


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## wlewisiii (Aug 11, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Aug 11, 2022)

Brilliant!

-------------------------------------








Explosions rock military airfield in Belarus used by Russian forces


OLHA HLUSHCHENKO - THURSDAY, 11 AUGUST 2022, 03:29 Explosions have rocked the area around the Zyabrovka airfield, which is located near the city of Gomel in Belarus, where blasts were heard and flashes seen.




www.yahoo.com





Sgt Smokey has been busy

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Brilliant!


I hope that's not the UAF or Ukrainian irregulars/partisans hitting Belarus. The US and NATO have firm ROEs conditions for their support - stay within your borders. 









Explosions Rock Military Airport In Belarus Days After Crimea Air Base Attack


Several explosions have been reported in an area of Belarus near a military airport that Ukrainian authorities say has been used by the Russian Air Force to attack Ukrainian territory.




www.rferl.org





So, ideally this is annoyed Belarussians hitting their Russian squatters.


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## ThomasP (Aug 11, 2022)

re the Zyabrauka airbase in Belarus:

The Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement that on 10 August at 11 pm, the engine of a military vehicle caught fire and "measures to extinguish the fire were undertaken," adding there were no casualties.

NOTE that an aide to the Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who lives in exile in Lithuania, said there had been at least eight explosions at the Zyabrovka military airfield, but other reports on social media put their number at four and said they had been accompanied by bright flashes around midnight Wednesday.

Also, an explosion was heard on 11 August at about 3 AM, coincidentally occurring at the same time as the destruction of a 92N6 'Grave Stone' fire control and engagement radar - a part of the S-400 SAM net.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 11, 2022)

With Putin's image as an iron man being ruined by his disaster in Ukraine, his puppets are in jeopardy of losing their hold on their countries.

I feel that it's just a matter of time before Lukashanko is sacked and if Belarus is becoming restless, than surely Georgia and Moldova are having thoughts about their occupied territories as well.

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## ThomasP (Aug 11, 2022)

The UK announced early today that they are sending "additional" M270 MLRS platforms along with an unspecified number of M31A1 guided rockets.

The UK's military support to Kyiv now totals £2.3 billion ($2.8 billion), the second highest amount after the US.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope that's not the UAF or Ukrainian irregulars/partisans hitting Belarus. The US and NATO have firm ROEs conditions for their support - stay within your borders.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


One of the many pundits I've watched said this might be a Russian false flag operation. Something about the Ukrainians using HIMARS to attack Belorussia. Personally I hope it's Belorussians doing a bit of de-lousing.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 11, 2022)

I am more inclined to think that the strikes in Belarus are the result of domestic activity.

Ukraine may be getting the upper hand against Russia, but they are not out of the woods, yet, and need to use every bit of hardware against strategic targets to achieve maximum results.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 11, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The UK announced early today that they are sending "additional" M270 MLRS platforms along with an unspecified number of M31A1 guided rockets.
> 
> The UK's military support to Kyiv now totals £2.3 billion ($2.8 billion), the second highest amount after the US.


From Jan. 24 to July 1, 2022 Ukraine has received 35 billion Euros (USD 36.2 billion) in military aid. This tracking website will be updated August 17, and I expect total military aid will exceed 45 billion Euros. For perspective, the annual defence budget of Canada is only 27 billion Euros (CAD $36 billion). 

I would not be surprised if by the end of the year Ukraine will have received close to 100 billion Euros in arms - resulting in one of the most powerful, innovative/adaptable and well led militaries in the world, with unsurpassed combat experience at all levels. Ukraine will be Europe's new Iron Curtain backstop. The sooner they're in NATO and the EU the better.

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## GTX (Aug 11, 2022)

UK intelligence agency says Russia building new ground force


Ukraine has accused Russia of firing rockets near a captured nuclear power plant in the knowledge it would be risky for Ukraine to return fire.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 11, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Aug 11, 2022)

Going back to Saky, there's this analysis by the BBC including some interviews with so-called experts.









Ukraine war: Crimea airbase badly damaged, satellite images show


New pictures show extensive damage to buildings and warplanes after explosions hit the Russian base.



www.bbc.com





I find the cited analysis by Louise Jones to be massively flawed. While her observations about experimental missiles and SF are valid, the damage cannot possibly have been caused by a fuel leak leading to an explosion. There are 2 clear craters visible in the satellite imagery and they're far enough apart to make it unlikely that they were caused by a single event. 

There continue to be questions over what exactly caused the damage but it seems pretty clear that there were 2 explosions in/near separately-revetted buildings, as well as other possible impacts. Regardless of the weapon(s) used, it seems to have been a very successful attack.

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## GTX (Aug 11, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Aug 11, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Aussie special force in disguise.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 11, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Aussie special force in disguise.



Isn't the disguise a little...well, obvious?

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 11, 2022)

No it just dropped a pack of cigarettes. Bet you didnt see that now did you. Off to watch twitter.

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## MiTasol (Aug 11, 2022)

GTX said:


>



That's a wallaby - not a roo

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## Glider (Aug 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> From Jan. 24 to July 1, 2022 Ukraine has received 35 billion Euros (USD 36.2 billion) in military aid. This tracking website will be updated August 17, and I expect total military aid will exceed 45 billion Euros. For perspective, the annual defence budget of Canada is only 27 billion Euros (CAD $36 billion).
> 
> I would not be surprised if by the end of the year Ukraine will have received close to 100 billion Euros in arms - resulting in one of the most powerful, innovative/adaptable and well led militaries in the world, with unsurpassed combat experience at all levels. Ukraine will be Europe's new Iron Curtain backstop. The sooner they're in NATO and the EU the better.


True in many ways, but they still need an airforce with western kit. The supply of ex soviet equipment must be close to the bottom of the barrel.

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## Glider (Aug 11, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the Zyabrauka airbase in Belarus:
> 
> The Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement that on 10 August at 11 pm, the engine of a military vehicle caught fire and "measures to extinguish the fire were undertaken," adding there were no casualties.


And I believe in the tooth fairy

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## buffnut453 (Aug 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> And I believe in the tooth fairy



I have some ocean-front property in Arizona....in case you're interested.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 11, 2022)

I was advised many years ago to buy land west of Yuma, Arizona. After the Big One hits California, I'll have beachfront property.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I was advised many years ago to buy land west of Yuma, Arizona. After the Big One hits California, I'll have beachfront property.


Problem is, the monster fault line (San Andreas) runs up the middle of Death Valley to the Bay Area - so beachfront property in Arizona won't happen, unless you buy a bridge to go with that...

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 11, 2022)

Good prospective beachfront property in the Imperial Valley.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> UK intelligence agency says Russia building new ground force
> 
> 
> Ukraine has accused Russia of firing rockets near a captured nuclear power plant in the knowledge it would be risky for Ukraine to return fire.
> ...



"Re-establishing a new ground force" ... shades of Kitchener's New Army.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Problem is, the monster fault line (San Andreas) runs up the middle of Death Valley to the Bay Area - so beachfront property in Arizona won't happen, unless you buy a bridge to go with that...


Why do you think I didn't take the advice? I knew geography better than he did. I always remembered the line, though.

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## hawkeye2an (Aug 12, 2022)

How BIG are Russian cigarettes?

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## GrauGeist (Aug 12, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> How BIG are Russian cigarettes?


Aparently, fairly large, from the looks of the damage to various sites since February.
It was even suggested at one time, that the "damage" to the Moskva was due to "someone smoking in an area they were not supposed to be".

Perhaps the US Surgeon General's warning on American cigarettes should be changed to:
"Warning, cigarettes are known to destroy ammunition dumps and airfields, sink Cruisers, explode munition factories and may complicate pregnancy"

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## fubar57 (Aug 12, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aparently, fairly large, from the looks of the damage to various sites since February.
> It was even suggested at one time, that the "damage" to the Moskva was due to "someone smoking in an area they were not supposed to be".
> 
> Perhaps the US Surgeon General's warning on American cigarettes should be changed to:
> "Warning, cigarettes are known to destroy ammunition dumps and airfields, sink Cruisers, explode munition factories and may complicate pregnancy"



As I noted above: even if the Russian explanation is 100% true, that bespeaks poor training, poor discipline, or both.

That's not something I'd want to admit to my enemy.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 12, 2022)



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## ThomasP (Aug 12, 2022)

This talk of the cigarette/smoking/explosion problem reminded me of the billions of cigarettes that the US tobacco companies sent to the crumbling Soviet states in the early-1990s. Maybe there was some-long range planning going on? Sleeper agent cigarettes? A cigarette centered insurgency? Psycho-cigarette warfare?

"U.S. Tobacco Companies Supplying Cigarettes to Russian Republic"

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 12, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> This talk of the cigarette/smoking/explosion problem reminded me of the billions of cigarettes that the US tobacco companies sent to the crumbling Soviet states in the early-1990s. Maybe there was some-long range planning going on? Sleeper agent cigarettes? A cigarette centered insurgency? Psycho-cigarette warfare?
> 
> "U.S. Tobacco Companies Supplying Cigarettes to Russian Republic"


The biggest CIA sucess ever!

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## at6 (Aug 12, 2022)

Send more cigarettes as soon as possible

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> True in many ways, but they still need an airforce with western kit.


True. When we see F-16s, Apaches and Reapers in UAF colours we'll know they've arrived.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> True in many ways, but they still need an airforce with western kit. The supply of ex soviet equipment must be close to the bottom of the barrel.



They're working on it:

_
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked since March for American-made F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. But Ukrainian pilots accustomed to aging Soviet-era MiG-29s and Sukhoi planes have not been trained to use U.S. fighter jets, a process that could take months.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., told Defense News he has been in touch with the Kyiv on the matter and that he added the $100 million for training as an amendment to the defense authorization bill this week in order to facilitate an eventual shift of Ukraine's military hardware away from Soviet-era technology.

"What we want to do is obviously send a message to authorize the process," Kinzinger told Defense News. "There is no doubt to me that when this war ends, Ukraine is going to have to be outfitted with western military equipment. Plus, there's just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies."_









House authorizes training for Ukrainian pilots to use US aircraft


The House approved $100 million in funding to train Ukrainian pilots to use U.S. aircraft as part of the National Defense Authorization Act it passed 329-101 this week.




www.defensenews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Plus, there's just no more MiGs left and no more MiG supplies."_


I imagine we’d need to scour Africa’s plentiful MiG and T-72 stockpiles for anything moderately operational or repairable. Much will be junk, but for the right price or prodding the African states may part with their better kit.

How difficult is it to convert from MiGs to F-16s? Is it akin to converting from a horsecart to a Tesla?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How difficult is it to convert from MiGs to F-16s?


I believe 

 BiffF15
explained that a while back, as he's been involved with the MiG-29 at one point.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 12, 2022)

I think the one oddity is the location of the stick. The F-16 has it on the side.


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## GTX (Aug 12, 2022)

Russia reportedly recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine as it struggles to replenish troops


Russian prisoners are reportedly being offered amnesty to fight in Ukraine, amid reports soldiers are trying to quit.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 12, 2022)

Satellite images show before and after of damaged Russian air base in Crimea


New satellite images reveal a before-and-after look at Russia's badly damaged Saki air base in Crimea as Ukraine declines to confirm or deny whether it was involved.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 12, 2022)

Estonia and Latvia are taking steps to ban Russian tourists. Will more countries follow?


The Ukrainian President wants Western nations to essentially ban Russians from entering their countries. Here's what we know about his request and who's supporting it.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Aug 12, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think the one oddity is the location of the stick. The F-16 has it on the side.


The F-16 is "fly by wire", so it ended up with a "side stick". The F-22 is set up like that, too.

Some cars have "steer by wire" but SAAB took that one step further with their 9000 and had a "drive by wire" side stick in the console instead of a steering wheel!

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## GTX (Aug 12, 2022)

More unidentified bodies from mass grave buried in liberated Ukrainian town


After Russia withdrew from the town of Bucha, following weeks of Russian occupation, hundreds of bodies were found by Ukrainian authorities, now 11 more unidentified bodies discovered in a mass grave have been given a dignified burial. WARNING: The following story contains potentially...




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Some cars have "steer by wire" but SAAB took that one step further with their 9000 and had a "drive by wire" side stick in the console instead of a steering wheel!


Indeed:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I imagine we’d need to scour Africa’s plentiful MiG and T-72 stockpiles for anything moderately operational or repairable. Much will be junk, but for the right price or prodding the African states may part with their better kit.



Yeah, my bet's on junk as far as airplanes go. Aside from parlous budgets that see overhaul intervals probably only honored in the breach, the operational environments are pretty tough as well. BOAC can attest to that from their experiences in the 60s.

Whether or not a tin-horn dictator would want to part with operational tanks is also questionable to my mind, when we consider the sheer number of _coups d'etat_ that have happened in Africa in the last few years. My suspicion is that those armies will want to hold onto any working armor they have in order to cow the restless millions or support their own planned overthrows.



Admiral Beez said:


> How difficult is it to convert from MiGs to F-16s? Is it akin to converting from a horsecart to a Tesla?



As GG points out, that was touched-upon above, and it's not as drastic as horsecart to Tesla, I don't think -- but there must still be some big operational hurdles. Aside from control layouts and metric-to English conversions, you're also looking at learning the flight envelope of the particular aircraft as well as learning the software sufficiently to get the most out of the airframe. UAF pilots with time in Soviet-era aircraft will likely have some transferrable skills, but will still be facing a fairly steep learning curve, is my guess.

As an example, it took the reserve 301st TFW at my base about eight months to transition from F-4Es to F-16As in 1990-91, and that was with a common language and units of measure, albeit with a vastly different and improved airframe. So there's no one easy answer to this question.

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## ThomasP (Aug 12, 2022)

In addition to training the pilots, there are the problems of maintenance personnel training and establishment of logistics pipelines.

Even if the UAF had enough pilots with enough skill that they could transfer to F-15s (for example) tomorrow, it would not be possible to provide support tomorrow unless we treat the airframes as ~disposable - ie if the airframe becomes unserviceable the pilot draws another from the parking lot. Training/retraining key technical personnel (even skilled people) could take longer than training the pilots.

Establishing a secure (enough) logistics pipeline could also be problematic.

There is also the problem of numbers. This is just my take on the situation, but I do not see a trickle of airframes as a winning move. We will have to train and equip significant numbers of personnel and deploy them as units in order to have a major effect. Even if we assume that the F-15 is a significantly superior airframe to the Russian airframes, and that the UAF pilots are significantly superior to the RF pilots, how many operational F-15s would be needed to have a major effect. I could be wrong but I think we are talking about sustaining 2 full squadrons at the absolute minimum - just for any chance of limited air superiority and/or defense of important targets and top cover during ground operations. And I think we are talking about similar numbers of A-10 or F-16 for having a major effect in the CAS/ground attack arena. The areas of operations in the Ukraine are too large and far apart for small numbers.

I do not know how vulnerable the Ukrainian air assets really are, but any airframes that cannot be operated from roadways or austere airfields, and moved around on a regular basis, will be vulnerable to attack by the same longer range missiles currently being used by the RF to bombard targets anywhere in Ukraine. Fixed bases will not work without an effective and sustainable EW and SAM net.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 12, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> In addition to training the pilots, there are the problems of maintenance personnel training and establishment of logistics pipelines.
> 
> Even if the UAF had enough pilots with enough skill that they could transfer to F-15s (for example) tomorrow, it would not be possible to provide support tomorrow unless we treat the airframes as ~disposable - ie if the airframe becomes unserviceable the pilot draws another from the parking lot. Training/retraining key technical personnel (even skilled people) could take longer than training the pilots.
> 
> Establishing a secure (enough) logistics pipeline could also be problematic.



In its entirety this is an excellent point. Airplanes are only useful so long as you can keep them flying.

Of course, you could train the ground crews while the pilots are training as well, but you will still have the logistical issues. Thankfully Ukraine has overland resupply but all the same, as you imply, those routes too are subject to interdiction, which means that this shift to Western gear probably will not be complete unless and until Ukraine wins out here, however that might be defined.


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## ThomasP (Aug 13, 2022)

hmmm . . I just though of something. Maybe we should include "cigarette boats", aka "cigar boats", in the next aid package. Better yet - stealth cigarette/cigar boats. No RF coastal/riverside installation/base or ship would be safe from fires/explosions.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> hmmm . . I just though of something. Maybe we should include "cigarette boats", aka "cigar boats", in the next aid package. Better yet - stealth cigarette/cigar boats. No RF coastal/riverside installation/base or ship would be safe from fires/explosions.


Well, the USCG did recently send some cutters to the Ukraine Navy...

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Well, the USCG did recently send some cutters to the Ukraine Navy...


Did Britain ever deliver these?






United Kingdom to provide 8 Barzan-class fast attack craft to Ukraine


United Kingdom could provide 8 Barzan-class fast attack craft to Ukraine




navyrecognition.com


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## fubar57 (Aug 13, 2022)

Ukrainian forces pressed a counteroffensive to try to take back an occupied southern region, striking the last working bridge over a river in the Russian-occupied Kherson region, Ukrainian authorities said Saturday. In the meantime, Russia shells residential areas


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-kramatorsk-aug13-1.6550572

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Have there been any declarations of war? What would be the ramifications of Ukraine declaring war against Russia? Short of nuclear exchange, I don't think there's much more Russia can do other than quit smoking.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 13, 2022)

It looks to me, that that Ukraine has so far taken the political and military high road, leaving the Russians to make the political and military moves that Ukraine is in a position to defend.
This keeps them in a favorable position in the eyes of the international community.
They are clearly within their rights to declare war on Russia, but then that could go sideways, giving Russia a justification to go into full scale, no holds-barred assault.

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> This keeps them in a favorable position in the eyes of the international community.


So an agressor makes war on the doorstep of the EU. How else can Ukraine be not "favorable" ?

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

I think it’s something to do with lawyers.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 13, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> So an agressor makes war on the doorstep of the EU. How else can Ukraine be not "favorable" ?


Where was the EU when Georgia and Moldova were invaded?

Where was the EU when Crimea and eastern Ukraine was invaded in 2014?

So far, Ukraine has not done anything to justify Russia's actions starting last February and they have refrained from doing anything provocative since that time.

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## GTX (Aug 13, 2022)

If only:

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> If only:


I expect that training on the F-16 and F-15 is well underway. The US approved the training scheme in mid-July. I bet the first training flight happened within days.

Meanwhile, some wishful thinking from Moscow.









U.S. Refused Ukraine F-16s Over Zelensky 'Scandals':Russian Military Expert


Alexei Leonkov wrote on Telegram that the U.S. is starting to "restrict" supplies of arms to Ukraine.




www.newsweek.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> *I expect that training on the* F-16 and* F-15* is well underway. The US approved the training scheme in mid-July. I bet the first training flight happened within days.
> 
> Meanwhile, some wishful thinking from Moscow.
> 
> ...


Rule out the F-15!

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## buffnut453 (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Britain ever deliver these?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, firstly the comments about providing Barzan craft to Ukraine seem to date from 2020. Secondly, there are only 4 Barzan class vessels in existence, all with the Qatari Navy. 

Personally, I think the entire story is made up by the website as click bait.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I expect that training on the F-16 and F-15 is well underway. The US approved the training scheme in mid-July. I bet the first training flight happened within days.
> 
> Meanwhile, some wishful thinking from Moscow.
> 
> ...


I found the article disturbing. I was thinking that the "Kherson offensive" was to trap as many Russian forces as possible on the wrong side of the Dnipro River and actually strike somewhere else. As Sun Tzu said "hit 'em where they ain't". 
I hope it turns out to be all a clerical error.


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## MiTasol (Aug 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think it’s something to do with lawyers.



And everyone knows that lawyer is the Olde Englishe spelling of LIAR.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It looks to me, that that Ukraine has so far taken the political and military high road, leaving the Russians to make the political and military moves that Ukraine is in a position to defend.
> This keeps them in a favorable position in the eyes of the international community.
> They are clearly within their rights to declare war on Russia, but then that could go sideways, giving Russia a justification to go into full scale, no holds-barred assault.


I bring it up because I was thinking that POWs are due better treatment than POSMOs. Which got me thinking (not an easy thing) about other legal issues. 
Using frozen Russian accounts to pay reparations. As justifiable as it is, we (NATO? EU?, UN?) can't just take take it. It would have to be legally settled somehow. If it's not a war, could damages be brought sooner in some civil court? I don't know how the frozen funds of the various Axis nations were handled. 

Putler came up with a cockamamie name for the invasion of Ukraine. He did this to avoid a general mobilization which would have been unpopular and he is still trying to avoid it so he doesn't want to declare war. If Ukraine forced his hand, how might it affect the way Russians think about the war especially after the tourists ran out of Crimea. 
Would there be any benefit Ukraine? Would/ should it affect arms shipments to Ukraine?


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## buffnut453 (Aug 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I bring it up because I was thinking that POWs are due better treatment than POSMOs. Which got me thinking (not an easy thing) about other legal issues.
> Using frozen Russian accounts to pay reparations. As justifiable as it is, we (NATO? EU?, UN?) can't just take take it. It would have to be legally settled somehow. If it's not a war, could damages be brought sooner in some civil court? I don't know how the frozen funds of the various Axis nations were handled.
> 
> Putler came up with a cockamamie name for the invasion of Ukraine. He did this to avoid a general mobilization which would have been unpopular and he is still trying to avoid it so he doesn't want to declare war. If Ukraine forced his hand, how might it affect the way Russians think about the war especially after the tourists ran out of Crimea.
> Would there be any benefit Ukraine? Would/ should it affect arms shipments to Ukraine?



I'm not sure Ukraine wants to declare war on Russia. If they do, then it's possible support from Europe and the US may cease. There's a reason that the US hasn't declared war since 1945. Other western countries have done the same. For example, neither the UK nor Argentina declared war over the Falklands/Malvinas. Declaring war has specific legal meanings which likely extend to those who are supporting either side in that war.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 13, 2022)

In a military conflict, regardless of a declared state of war or not, military prisoners are bound by international law to be treated humanely.
Torture, execution, starvation or forced labor falls under war crimes.

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## Glider (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I expect that training on the F-16 and F-15 is well underway. The US approved the training scheme in mid-July. I bet the first training flight happened within days.
> 
> Meanwhile, some wishful thinking from Moscow.
> 
> ...


I like the start.
_A Russian military expert has said the United States has started to restrict its military assistance to Ukraine and linked what he believed to be a cooling of Washington's support for Kyiv to the actions of Ukrainian President __Volodymyr Zelensky_ 
If that's what their experts believe it easy to see why Putin is in the mess he is in.

Then again, maybe he also believes in the tooth fairy, that would make two of us

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> I like the start.
> _A Russian military expert has said the United States has started to restrict its military assistance to Ukraine and linked what he believed to be a cooling of Washington's support for Kyiv to the actions of Ukrainian President __Volodymyr Zelensky_
> If that's what their experts believe it easy to see why Putin is in the mess he is in.
> 
> Then again, maybe he also believes in the tooth fairy, that would make two of us


I missed that part. Thanks Glider!


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## buffnut453 (Aug 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> In a military conflict, regardless of a declared state of war or not, military prisoners are bound by international law to be treated humanely.
> Torture, execution, starvation or forced labor falls under war crimes.



Well, yes, that's the case in a normal country. Russia, however, is anything but normal.

This reporting gives an indication of how bad things are in regular Russian prisons. I can't imagine what might be meted out against POWs or, worse, those identified as mercenaries:









Ex-inmates reveal details of Russia prison rape scandal


Former prisoners expose how and why rape is being used as a weapon inside Russian jails.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> hmmm . . I just though of something. Maybe we should include "cigarette boats", aka "cigar boats", in the next aid package. Better yet - stealth cigarette/cigar boats. No RF coastal/riverside installation/base or ship would be safe from fires/explosions.



Hemingway and Bogart are smiling from above on you.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 13, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> So an agressor makes war on the doorstep of the EU. How else can Ukraine be not "favorable" ?



Not declaring war probably makes finding terms for a cease-fire, at least, easier.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, yes, that's the case in a normal country. Russia, however, is anything but normal.
> 
> This reporting gives an indication of how bad things are in regular Russian prisons. I can't imagine what might be meted out against POWs or, worse, those identified as mercenaries:
> 
> ...



And to put it bluntly I don't think the Russians would give two shits rubbed together about international law regarding PoWs even if this were a legally-declared war.

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## Dimlee (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Did Britain ever deliver these?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They didn't.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 13, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> They didn't.


What can be provided now to the Ukrainian navy without violating Montrose? 

I’d love to see Ukraine with a half dozen fast missile craft like Finland’s _Skjold_-class corvette.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Ukraine was occupied by the CCCP in 1936 when the convention was signed. Does Ukraine get any kind of pass for warships? The bulk of Ukraine's navy was stolen by Russia in 2014.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ukraine was occupied by the CCCP in 1936 when the convention was signed. Does Ukraine get any kind of pass for warships? The bulk of Ukraine's navy was stolen by Russia in 2014.


The Turks have barred ALL warships from ALL nations from entering the Black Sea. 

They scuttled their best ship, the frigate _Hetman Sahaidachny__. _Too bad.

Outside of naval matters, some updates.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Turks have barred ALL warships from ALL nations from entering the Black Sea.
> 
> They scuttled their best ship, the frigate _Hetman Sahaidachny__. _Too bad.
> 
> Outside of naval matters, some updates.



I‘m watching the video now!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ukraine was occupied by the CCCP in 1936 when the convention was signed. Does Ukraine get any kind of pass for warships? The bulk of Ukraine's navy was stolen by Russia in 2014.



So far as I've read there is no language in the convention restricting it to nations that existed at the time, so no, I don't think Ukr's independence changed anything, and outside help will have to come overland or by air, meaning any naval assets larger than small PCs that can be hauled by rail is not going in for the time being.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 13, 2022)

Yeah, what I thought. Back to putting submarines on wheels.

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## ThomasP (Aug 14, 2022)

I had a dream last night that the US/NATO had supplied CAPTOR type mines to Ukraine. In my dream the first awareness of this having occurred was when there were reports of fires and explosions on various RF Black Sea Fleet subs due to poor smoking safety practices.

"Mark 60 CAPTOR - Wikipedia"

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## ThomasP (Aug 14, 2022)

Do you think Putin would take it wrong if we offered to send the RF a humanitarian aid package containing cigarettes?

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## ThomasP (Aug 14, 2022)

re "Back to putting submarines on wheels."

"The Navy Is Buying Boeing's Drone Submarine Called 'Orca'"

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## GrauGeist (Aug 14, 2022)

The U.S. is providing "riverine/coastal" patrol boats to Ukraine - these are about 38 feet long and could easily be shipped by rail.
The several USN Mark VI patrol boats being granted to Ukraine may be a bit more difficult to get into the Black Sea, as they are 84 feet long.
Not impossible, but certainly a logistical challenge.

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## MiTasol (Aug 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The U.S. is providing "riverine/coastal" patrol boats to Ukraine - these are about 38 feet long and could easily be shipped by rail.
> The several USN Mark VI patrol boats being granted to Ukraine may be a bit more difficult to get into the Black Sea, as they are 84 feet long.
> Not impossible, but certainly a logistical challenge.



Interesting challenge. There are vids of very long wind turbine blades being moved in difficult terrain and I am sure the Ukrainians would soon adapt that tech to do the job.

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## ThomasP (Aug 14, 2022)

If they can get them to the Danube somewhere up-river (maybe via the Netherlands -> Rhine -> River Main -> Main-Danube Canal?) the Mark VI PBs could be delivered to the Black Sea through Romania.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> If they can get them to the Danube somewhere up-river (maybe via the Netherlands -> Rhine -> River Main -> Main-Danube Canal?) the Mark VI PBs could be delivered to the Black Sea through Romania.


That’s a good idea. The entire route is within NATO territory. We’d want to send fast attack missile boats, rather than patrol boats.

Here’s the map of inland waterways.



https://unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2013/sc3wp3/AGNP2013-v3.pdf



Too bad the below expansion isn’t finished.

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## GTX (Aug 14, 2022)

Will We See North Korean Forces in Eastern Ukraine?


How a military commitment by Pyongyang could materialize.



thediplomat.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> If they can get them to the Danube somewhere up-river (maybe via the Netherlands -> Rhine -> River Main -> Main-Danube Canal?) the Mark VI PBs could be delivered to the Black Sea through Romania.
> 
> View attachment 682058


That would be an easy way to get the Mark VI patrol boats to Ukraine - the only issue would be portage between the Rhine and Danube.

Just to expand on the USN's Mark VI patrol boat: it's a bit larger than the USN's PT boats of WWII, at 84 feet long, beam of 20 feet and a draft of 4 feet. They weigh 72 tons, powered by two diesel engines (2,600 up, each) and has a top speed of 45 knots.

Typical armament is two Mk 38 25mm gatling guns, six .50 MGs and a Mk 50 remote turret.
It also has mounts for M240 MGs, M134 gatling guns or Mk 19 grenade launchers.
There are plans to upgrade it's system with BGM-176B guided missile launchers.

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## Crimea_River (Aug 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> - the only issue would be portage between the Rhine and Danube....


Not the only issue.









Rhine River Falls Below Critical Level at German Waypoint


The Rhine River is set to continue shriveling early into next week, further restricting the supply of vital commodities to parts of inland Europe as the continent battles with its worst energy crisis in decades.




www.bloomberg.com

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## Denniss (Aug 14, 2022)

Summer in europe is very hot with very little rain so all rivers are very low on water. What about airlift to romania?


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> the only issue would be portage between the Rhine and Danube.


Does the Rhine to Danube canal help?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 14, 2022)

The interior of both the C-5B and C-17 are not large enough.
The An-225 *could* have transported one (if the boat's bridge structure were removed), but as we know, not possible, now.

Regarding the Rhine, the boats have a draft of 4 feet (they were designed to operate in very shallow water), so it might still be possible, especially if they have been lightened (weapons and other items remived and ahipped separately).


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 14, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Summer in europe is very hot with very little rain so all rivers are very low on water. What about airlift to romania?


Here’s a C-5 Galaxy loading a 57 ton, 82ft long 17.5ft wide/high Navy Seal boat.







The US Navy Seal craft above is heavier and about the same size as Taiwan’s Israeli-designed Hai Ou-class missile boats. Maybe some can be had from Taiwan or other operators, such as Slovenia, without upsetting Israeli’s neutrality.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Will We See North Korean Forces in Eastern Ukraine?
> 
> 
> How a military commitment by Pyongyang could materialize.
> ...


100,000 starving “volunteers” certainly won’t be a problem for Russian logistics prowess. I’m sure all communication issues will be easily dismissed in the spirit of true proletarian brotherhood. 
I’d say at least 10% high tail it west as soon as they could.

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## fubar57 (Aug 14, 2022)

Surprised "Glorious Leader" would allow any of his troops to leave know the Western Running Pig Dogs are poised to invade at any moment

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 14, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’d say at least 10% high tail it west as soon as they could.


More like all. Straight to the South Korean Embassy in Kiev, Ukraine.

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## at6 (Aug 14, 2022)

Since we are still legally at war with Kim Jong Pigsh!t's nation, why not add so many more sanctions that his turd regime collapses?


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## Jabberwocky (Aug 14, 2022)

Twitter rumour mill has several sources reporting Russian command on the southern front has withdrawn back over the Dnipro river, which may proceed a wider Russian withdrawal southwards, setting up the river as the new front line.

Has some interesting implications if it is true:

Would be a major battlefield defeat for Russia. It shows that Ukrainian offensive pressure and strikes on supply lines are strong enough to force a general withdrawal, admittedly on what had been a secondary axis of advance. Also this seems to be a bit of a special case, as the Dnipro provided a major natural chokepoint that the Ukrainans could use to their advantage. Replicating this elsewhere would be much more difficult.

Shortens the front lines considerably. The front north/northeast of Kherson covered better than 200 km. If Russia does withdraw over the Dnipro, it shortens the length of the front lines by ~100 km or more. I'm not sure who that benefits more, but a tighter front usually helps the defenders. It would free up Russian forces for redeployment, but it would also mean Ukraine secures a major section of its southern flank that it can cover relatively easily.

Signals an end to Russian offensive operations in the south, ending any land threat to Odessa. As most of the bridges across the Dnipro are destroyed/damaged, there's little chance of Russia resuming offensive operations northward.

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## Glider (Aug 14, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Twitter rumour mill has several sources reporting Russian command on the southern front has withdrawn back over the Dnipro river, which may proceed a wider Russian withdrawal southwards, setting up the river as the new front line.
> 
> Has some interesting implications if it is true:
> 
> ...


The Daily Telegraph are also reporting this move.

I have to say that the morale of those left to defend the city will have been hit by this if true. To see your leaders clear off to the safe side of the bridge will not help you. Also as the bridges are impasssible to heavy equipment, how much will be abandoned.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 14, 2022)

Does anyone know how many troops the Russians still have west of the Dnipro? How many are threatened with cutoff if this scenario unfolds as laid out above?


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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> The Daily Telegraph are also reporting this move.
> 
> I have to say that the morale of those left to defend the city will have been hit by this if true. To see your leaders clear off to the safe side of the bridge will not help you. Also as the bridges are impasssible to heavy equipment, how much will be abandoned.


Looks like I picked the wrong war to quit smoking.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Looks like I picked the wrong war to quit smoking.


I can guarantee you that if the Red Army's leaders suddenly moved back across the river and there's a sudden silence across the landscape, now is the time to start smoking, because shit's about to get real...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> The Daily Telegraph are also reporting this move.
> 
> I have to say that the morale of those left to defend the city will have been hit by this if true. To see your leaders clear off to the safe side of the bridge will not help you. Also as the bridges are impasssible to heavy equipment, how much will be abandoned.



"And who?" has to be resounding in the heads of the defenders left behind.


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## ThomasP (Aug 15, 2022)

The last Intel estimates I saw put the number of RF & separatist troops in the Kherson area at ~7,000 north of the Dnipro. That was about 2 weeks ago, and was referring to the troops that needed to worry about being out of supply or possibly cut-off in the near future.

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## J_P_C (Aug 15, 2022)

unconfirmed news - in Popasny Ukrainians "denazified" headquater of wagner group - Jevgenij Prigozhin famous putler's "cook" and head of this organization may be one of "denazified" PMCs.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does anyone know how many troops the Russians still have west of the Dnipro? How many are threatened with cutoff if this scenario unfolds as laid out above?



Reports vary.

Smallest estimate I have seen is 12,000. Largest is about 35,000. Western media, informed by Western intelligence estimates, is saying 20,000 plus. This includes everyone though - from boot polishers through to trigger pullers.

Forces identified in the area on the west bank of the Dnipro during August include elements of the 35th, 41st, 49th and 58th Combined Arms Armies, 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions, 22nd Army Corps of the Black Sea Fleet and Russian internal security troops.

Dont forget that Russia has at least one ferry line operating across the river. It's possible they may do a Dunkirk and extract the men while abandoning their equipment. Or, they may fight on and the while thing fizzles out.

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## ThomasP (Aug 15, 2022)

The possibility of North Korean combat troops becoming involved is worrying - at least insofar as this would allow a supply of troops that would have little or no impact on the Russian populace in terms of morale if they take high casualties.

Intel estimates say that ~13% of RF combat troops (ie frontline/foxhole types) in Ukraine are currently refusing to attack/advance, AWOL, or being held under guard in rear areas pending decision what to do with them.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> unconfirmed news - in Popasny Ukrainians "denazified" headquater of wagner group - Jevgenij Prigozhin famous putler's "cook" and head of this organization may be one of "denazified" PMCs.


Why do you write in such a cryptically nonsensical way? What are you trying to convey? Is Prigozhin dead?


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## J_P_C (Aug 15, 2022)

two things out of this news has been confirmed - wagner's headquarter in Papasny have been destroyed and in the moment of attack Prighozin was at the building, so far no confirmation that he has been killed as well...

considering results of strike it will takes some time to confirm anything...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why do you write in such a cryptically nonsensical way? What are you trying to convey? Is Prigozhin dead?



Maybe English not being his first language has something to do with it? Maybe cut him some slack, eh?

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## Glider (Aug 15, 2022)

Apparently Putin is ready to equip his friends with the latest Russian military equipment.

I wonder how many will queue to buy his tanks and of course what the delivery dates on said equipment will be

Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 15, 2022)

Glider said:


> Apparently Putin is ready to equip his friends with the latest Russian military equipment.
> 
> I wonder how many will queue to buy his tanks and of course what the delivery dates on said equipment will be
> 
> Putin: Russia is ready to arm its allies


As 

 SaparotRob
said up thread, good luck trying to sell that hardware. Tough times to be a russian arms seller.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 15, 2022)

If this is true, it's a beautiful piece of targeting:









Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east


The Luhansk base was targeted after a Russian journalist revealed its location online, Ukraine claims.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Aug 15, 2022)

Apparently, a few days ago, a Russian "journalist" filmed the Wagner headquarters and posted the video online....but the video showed a street sign in the background which gave away the location. 

Yevgeny Pregozin was allegedly seen at the site two days ago and there's online speculation that he was killed. Video of the destruction is available online.

Other than the facility being hit, few facts, lots of speculation.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 15, 2022)

Regarding the street sign - I wonder how many people nowdays recall the wartime slogan: "loose lips sinks ships"?

Not saying I'm sad about the mercinary's HQ getting hit, of course.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Regarding the street sign - I wonder how many people nowadays recall the wartime slogan: "loose lips sinks ships"?


Guess it was never translated into Russian.


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## fubar57 (Aug 15, 2022)

сигареты топят корабли

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## GrauGeist (Aug 15, 2022)

факт !!

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Little respite for Ukrainian doctors on front lines of war with Russia


Doctors in a Ukrainian military hospital near Ukraine's eastern border have virtually no time for breaks as Russia pushes further south.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Should we read anything into this I wonder:









Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un exchange letters and words of support


North Korea has recognised two Russian-backed breakaway "People's Republics" in eastern Ukraine amid the Russian invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Take with a pinch of salt:









Close Putin ally and Kremlin insider in undercover bid to end bloody Ukraine war


Senior officials and members of President Vladimir Putin's elite are said to be "panicking" and want to negotiate in a bid to end the bloody war in Ukraine, experts claim




www.mirror.co.uk

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Ukraine received four Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns from Slovakia

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## Glider (Aug 15, 2022)

You have to admit that the Ukraine are getting some first class equipment, no second hand, ex kept in reserve kit.

These really are the business.

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## swampyankee (Aug 15, 2022)

at6 said:


> Since we are still legally at war with Kim Jong Pigsh!t's nation, why not add so many more sanctions that his turd regime collapses?


Are there any sanctions left to add?


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 15, 2022)

Turret looks like it belongs on a ship!

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Russia abandons 20,000 troops near Kherson, governor says


Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv, said Russia has begun withdrawing command posts from the west side of the Dnipro River near Kherson to the east as Ukrainian forces close in.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

NZ sends further significant deployment to support Ukraine


New Zealand is making a further significant deployment of 120 New Zealand Defence Force personnel to the United Kingdom to help train Ukraine soldiers, as part of an international effort to help Ukraine continue to defend itself against Russia’s illegal war.




www.beehive.govt.nz

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Interesting observation:

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

79th Air Assault Brigade of Ukraine receives 11 MLS Shield armored vehicles purchased in Italy | Defense News August 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


Ukrainian army 79th Air Assault Brigade received 11 MLS Shield 4x4 wheeled armored vehicles produced by the Italian company Tekne.




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/nz-sends-further-significant-deployment-support-ukraine[/URL



[QUOTE="GTX, post: 1759810, membe...nel. How uniform is the training?
[/QUOTE]


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Apparently, a few days ago, a Russian "journalist" filmed the Wagner headquarters and posted the video online....but the video showed a street sign in the background which gave away


I wonder where Sergei Sreda is now.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder where Sergei Sreda is now.


He stepped outside for a smoke.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

If the Wagner Group headquarters was indeed smoked, what's left (destitute wannabe mercs, criminals, etc.) might see their combat effectiveness somewhat hampered. This and the hopefully abandoned troops north of the Dnipro really is great news.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If the Wagner Group headquarters was indeed smoked, what's left (destitute wannabe mercs, criminals, etc.) might see their combat effectiveness somewhat hampered. This and the hopefully abandoned troops north of the Dnipro really is great news.


Depends. What exactly constitutes a Wagner HQ? This isn't some Borg Cube where the enemy leader and soldiers are all amassed.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

According to the buzz, numero uno was taken out. That would mean his staff of psychopaths, thugs and brown nosers would be there with him. This could mean serious decapitation of one of the more competent military formations Putler has. I have heard mention that Wagner Group has the better troops. That's why they're in the Donbas and headquartered(?) in Popasna threatening Bakhmut. The attack was in Popasna. I think. The Ukrainians did have the address.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> According to the buzz, numero uno was taken out.


I guess the UAF gets the $250k?









FBI Adds ‘Putin’s Chef’ to Wanted List, Offers $250K Reward - The Moscow Times


The FBI accuses Prigozhin of “conspiracy to defraud the United States.”




www.themoscowtimes.com

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## J_P_C (Aug 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> According to the buzz, numero uno was taken out. That would mean his staff of psychopaths, thugs and brown nosers would be there with him. This could mean serious decapitation of one of the more competent military formations Putler has. I have heard mention that Wagner Group has the better troops. That's why they're in the Donbas and headquartered(?) in Popasna threatening Bakhmut. The attack was in Popasna. I think. The Ukrainians did have the address.


unforunately "numero uno" most probably have survived, there are photos of Prigozhin making "damage assessment" when dust settled down. i Wonder if it will calm down his enthusiasm little bit???

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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

Yup. Wagner Group's Numero Uno. I'd never forget that smile.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> unforunately "numero uno" most probably have survived, there are photos of Prigozhin making "damage assessment" when dust settled down. i Wonder if it will calm down his enthusiasm little bit???


He should have a cigarette to calm his nerves.

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## J_P_C (Aug 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He should have a cigarette to calm his nerves.


and he should also start looking for new set of brown nosers - Ukrainians reported body count around 100.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 15, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Aug 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



I can't wait for this video to have sound effects added.


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## wlewisiii (Aug 15, 2022)

It is more likely a demolitions charge but still it's good for the whole world when there are fewer TV transmission towers.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 15, 2022)

Reports of unusually heavy Russian airstrikes along the line of contact to the southeast and east of Mikolaiv over the last 18-24 hours, particularly around the Ukrainian salient near Posad-Pokrovs'ke. Also heavy use of long range rocket artillery.

Could be covering for withdrawal, although Ukraine reports no changes to Russian troop dispositions yet.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 16, 2022)

Russian blood diamonds?

Russia Fights Efforts to Declare It an Exporter of ‘Blood Diamonds’

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 16, 2022)

_
KYIV, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Moscow denounced sabotage and Ukraine hinted at responsibility for new explosions on Tuesday at a military base in the Russian-annexed Crimea region that is an important war supply line.

The blasts engulfed an ammunition depot at a Russian military base in the north of the peninsula, disrupting trains and forcing 2,000 people to be evacuated from a nearby village, according to Russian officials and news agencies.


Plumes of smoke were later seen at a second Russian military base in central Crimea, Russia's Kommersant newspaper said, while blasts hit another facility in the west last week.

The explosions raised the prospect of new dynamics in the six-month war if Ukraine now has capability to strike deeper into Russian territory or pro-Kyiv groups are having success with guerrilla-style attacks.

[...]

In Tuesday's incident, an electricity substation also caught fire, according to footage on Russian state TV. Russia's RIA news agency said seven trains were delayed and that rail traffic on part of the line in northern Crimea had been suspended.
_









Blasts, fresh drone attacks rock Russian-held areas far from Ukraine war front


The drone assaults come after explosions erupted near military bases in Russian-held areas of Ukraine and Russia itself, apparent displays of Kyiv's growing ability to pummel Moscow's assets far from front lines.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Aug 16, 2022)

I see Putler is denouncing AUKUS and accusing the U.S. of trying to set up a NATO style block in the Pacific. What else can the west do now that Russia and North Korea have formed an Axis of Steel?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 16, 2022)

Putler’s brain is obviously not firing on all cylinders. 









Putin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine


Heavy armor losses in Ukraine forced Russia to pull obsolete tanks out of storage to replace more modern tanks destroyed or damaged in combat.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 16, 2022)

Pretty sure world military leaders have been watching this conflict closely, and have inside tracks to Intel that would show just how well Russian equipment is performing in combat.

Surely Vladolph Putler cannot believe that his yapping away at a conference, with these fantastic claims, takes precedence over hard Intel...

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## WARSPITER (Aug 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure world military leaders have been watching this conflict closely, and have inside tracks to Intel that would show just how well Russian equipment is performing in combat.
> 
> Surely Vladolph Putler cannot believe that his yapping away at a conference, with these fantastic claims, takes precedence over hard Intel...


He is safe at home so long as people there are fed the right 'information' diet. 
It has to hit sooner or later though (sanctions and quality of life aspects) ?

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 16, 2022)

Their tanks have been light years ahead of others with lunching their turrets into space.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 16, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Their tanks have been light years ahead of others with lunching their turrets into space.


Yep. At a precise 39 spins Per...

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Russia claims 'sabotage' as military base in Crimea goes up in smoke


Russia blames the blasts at an ammunition storage facility in Crimea on an "act of sabotage" without naming the perpetrators.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Ukraine received two Mi-17 and two Mi-2 helicopters from Latvia

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Take with pinch of salt noting source:









Russia’s cutting-edge Su-57 fighter proves its worth in Ukraine operation — defense firm


It is reported that Russia’s Aerospace Force will receive 22 Su-57 fighters by late 2024




tass.com

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Ukraine gets more M109 howitzers from Latvia to counter Russia


Latvia has supplied 6 M109 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. According to the minister, 6 more M109 howitzers that have recently arrived in Ukraine from Latvia are already showing results on the battlefield. "I‘m sincerely grateful to...




defence-blog.com

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## Glider (Aug 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putler’s brain is obviously not firing on all cylinders.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The article did get one thing right

_He also claimed that military professionals think highly of the weapons and that most of them have been used in combat multiple times,_ 

First by the Russians, and then often by the Ukraine

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Russia’s Repeat Failures


Moscow’s new strategy in Ukraine is just as bad as the old one.




www.foreignaffairs.com

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## Glider (Aug 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Take with pinch of salt noting source:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Even this has a habit of backfiring

_Russia's Aerospace Force will receive 22 Su-57 fighters by late 2024 and their number will increase to 76 by 2028. The first Su-57 fighter was delivered to the Russian troops in 2020_

So between 2020 and 2024 they were planned (note past tense) to build about four a year, and a further fifty two at thirteen a year by 2028. Ignoring the lack of money, technology and technical expertise with which to meet this.

Has anybody any idea how many F35's are planned to be built by 2028?

Also remember that India walked away from the project as it was missing almost all its design and performance goals. Sounds like a typical run away success. At least a Ukraine farmer hasn't got one yet

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> Has anybody any idea how many F35's are planned to be built by 2028?


Tentatively 1800 give or take

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## J_P_C (Aug 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Tentatively 1800 give or take


respect for LM!

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## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> respect for LM!


There are over 825 delivered so far.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 16, 2022)

Well, in all honesty, Putin was not stretching the truth when he claimed Russian armor is technologically superior - it's just that he omitted the part where it should have stated:
"_vastly superior to WWII era hardware._"

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine gets more M109 howitzers from Latvia to counter Russia
> 
> 
> Latvia has supplied 6 M109 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. According to the minister, 6 more M109 howitzers that have recently arrived in Ukraine from Latvia are already showing results on the battlefield. "I‘m sincerely grateful to...
> ...


Now that's faith in NATO. Latvia has Russia right next door and provides Ukraine with weapons to kill Russians.... and doesn't worry that the Russians might seize upon a weakened Latvia. Of course Latvia isn't weakened because NATO battlegroup is there.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 16, 2022)

So far Putin is getting a taste of NATO hardware courtesy of the Ukraine military, but if he draws NATO into the mix, that taste will turn into a full seven course meal complete with after-dinner mints...

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 16, 2022)

I think he getting whiff of combat training western style. Ohh and he is lost the info war.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> Has anybody any idea how many F35's are planned to be built by 2028?


Plan for the moment is:
144 to 150 this year
152 in 2023
156 per year for 2023 to 2028 

LM could (theoretically) build more. From memory, there is line capability for better than 180 per year and output could probably top 200 aircraft per year if necessary.

The main problems are insufficient numbers with the test/simulator environment (slowing pre-delivery testing down of each aircraft), delays at Pratt & Whitney with engine deliveries and the mess that was caused when Turkey was ejected from the programme (which meant some key supplier agreements had to be torn up and re-tendered elsewhere).

Also the F35B and F35C are slowing things down too. The B takes 25-35% more man hours to build than the A, and then 50% more manhours for rework and rectification. The C takes 40-50% more manhours to build, and about 250% more manhours for rework and rectification. 

LM built and reworked 189 F35As in 2020 and 2021, taking just under 900,000 man hours (average of 47,590 per aircraft). In the same time, it built/reworked 38 F35Bs taking just over 242,000 man hours (63,770 per aircraft) and 17 F35Cs taking just under 140,000 man hours (82,275 per aircraft). 

Put another way, if LM had been building just As, it theoretically could have built 80 aircraft instead of 55 Bs and Cs. Of course, that leaves the Navy and the MC sweet out of luck though.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 16, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Plan for the moment is:
> 144 to 150 this year
> 152 in 2023
> 156 per year for 2023 to 2028
> ...


It’s going to be a long time before the two Queen Elizabeth class can sail with full CAGs, and a whole lot longer before the RCAF has the entirety of its small order.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Surely Vladolph Putler cannot believe that his yapping away at a conference, with these fantastic claims, takes precedence over hard Intel...


Steiner will turn it around…..

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## WARSPITER (Aug 16, 2022)

I have a query on the non proliferation / sovereignty guarantee signed by Ukraine and Russia. Were there any other signatories to this
as to sovereignty as Russia has clearly broken the terms (reasons why were clearly pointed out in this thread but I don't recall which post/s).

If there are other signatories does that mean they have an internationally legal right to intervene or even an obligation to do so ?


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## buffnut453 (Aug 16, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I have a query on the non proliferation / sovereignty guarantee signed by Ukraine and Russia. Were there any other signatories to this
> as to sovereignty as Russia has clearly broken the terms (reasons why were clearly pointed out in this thread but I don't recall which post/s).
> 
> If there are other signatories does that mean they have an internationally legal right to intervene or even an obligation to do so ?



The Budapest Accords were signed by UK, US, Russia, France, China, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The Accords simply provide for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons and, in return, received signed assurances from the other nations that they would respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. There is no clause in the text calling on signatories to protect Ukraine if one of the other signatories breaks the Accord.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure world military leaders have been watching this conflict closely, and have inside tracks to Intel that would show just how well Russian equipment is performing in combat.
> 
> Surely Vladolph Putler cannot believe that his yapping away at a conference, with these fantastic claims, takes precedence over hard Intel...



Vladolph…

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## WARSPITER (Aug 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Budapest Accords were signed by UK, US, Russia, France, China, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The Accords simply provide for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons and, in return, received signed assurances from the other nations that they would respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. There is no clause in the text calling on signatories to protect Ukraine if one of the other signatories breaks the Accord.


That's what I was wondering. Thank you.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure world military leaders have been watching this conflict closely, and have inside tracks to Intel that would show just how well Russian equipment is performing in combat.
> 
> Surely Vladolph Putler cannot believe that his yapping away at a conference, with these fantastic claims, takes precedence over hard Intel...



He may well be talking to a domestic audience that is only allowed to see what he permits the media to air anyway. He may not be caring about foreign opinion at all, in my view.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He may well be talking to a domestic audience that is only allowed to see what he permits the media to air anyway. He may not be caring about foreign opinion at all, in my view.


His statements about his advanced Russian Military hardware, was at an international military technical forum.

I can't imagine the handful of "international" attendees were taking him seriously and were most likely there for the free drinks and salad bar.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Budapest Accords were signed by UK…, in return, received signed assurances from the other nations that they would respect Ukrainian territorial integrity.


What threat could the UK be to Ukrainian territorial integrity? This isn’t the 1850s. What Ukraine needed was assurances that others would not stand idly by whilst the nation was attacked.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> His statements about his advanced Russian Military hardware, was at an international military technical forum.
> 
> I can't imagine the handful of "international" attendees were taking him seriously and were most likely there for the free drinks and salad bar.



Sure. That doesn't mean that those attendees were his intended audience.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What threat could the UK be to Ukrainian territorial integrity? This isn’t the 1850s. What Ukraine needed was assurances that others would not stand idly by whilst the nation was attacked.


Was the U.K. a guarantor?


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Was the U.K. a guarantor?


I think the point is there were NO guarantors. Ukraine is attacked, dusts off the Budapest Accords and reads the small print that says, we the undersigned countries agree not to mess with your borders, but if anyone else does, including any of the other signatories, too bad for you.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 17, 2022)

The truly sad part, is you pretty much correct!

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## GrauGeist (Aug 17, 2022)

The US, UK and Russia were the primary signatories in the Budapest Memorandum.

I posted the five (of six) outlines up-thread that the three primary signatories agreed to.

Russia has violated virtually all of the outlines in the accord both in 2014 and again this year.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think the point is there were NO guarantors. Ukraine is attacked, dusts off the Budapest Accords and reads the small print that says, we the undersigned countries agree not to mess with your borders, but if anyone else does, including any of the other signatories, too bad for you.



Let's be careful of adopting the retrospectroscope here. The only collective defence security agreement in Europe is NATO. Having NATO members entering into additional security agreements is a de facto escalatory decision (from Russia's perspective).

In addition. Ukraine in 2008 was a very different country from Ukraine today. Democracy was only just starting to bud. The political leadership of Ukraine mostly leaned towards Russia. 

Given these realities, expecting the US and UK to act as guarantors for Ukrainian territorial integrity simply is a non-starter.

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## Dimlee (Aug 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> His statements about his advanced Russian Military hardware, was at an international military technical forum.
> 
> I can't imagine the handful of "international" attendees were taking him seriously and were most likely there for the free drinks and salad bar.


And for the kickbacks of the future purchases, probably...

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## Dimlee (Aug 17, 2022)

Behind Enemy Lines, Ukrainians Tell Russians ‘You Are Never Safe’


Clandestine resistance cells are spotting targets, sabotaging rail lines and killing those deemed collaborators as they seek to unnerve Russian forces.




www.nytimes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Behind Enemy Lines, Ukrainians Tell Russians ‘You Are Never Safe’
> 
> 
> Clandestine resistance cells are spotting targets, sabotaging rail lines and killing those deemed collaborators as they seek to unnerve Russian forces.
> ...


Let's hope they're careful. Is a Russian-speaking Ukrainian who cooperates with the occupiers in order to survive fair game? 









Death to traitors! Ukraine partisans kill collaborator behind enemy lines


Ukraine partisans have opened a new front, mounting operations far behind enemy lines to target senior Russian officials and Ukrainian collaborators




thenewdaily.com.au





Will we see scenes like in Paris 1945 in liberated Ukraine?









An ugly carnival: how thousands of French women were treated after D-day


Antony Beevor recounts the brutal treatment meted out to thousands of French women after D-day




www.theguardian.com





If the Ukrainian resistance and partisans aren't careful it's only a matter of time before innocent civilians are killed. The West's appetite for helping Ukraine is not without limits.

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## at6 (Aug 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putler’s brain is obviously not firing on all cylinders.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What did he do? Re-invent the sling shot?

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## GTX (Aug 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> What did he do? Re-invent the sling shot?

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## GTX (Aug 17, 2022)

Diplomatic tensions as Russia's planned replacement embassy scrapped


Australian bureaucrats have scuttled the construction of a new Russian embassy building in Canberra, ordering a "premium" block of land near parliament house be vacated within 20 days.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 17, 2022)

North Korea looks to send labourers to Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine


The head of Russia's proxy forces in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region sends a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling for cooperation in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 17, 2022)

I wonder what lessons learned the Russians might bring to those exercises?









As Taiwan stages military show, China gears up for exercises with Russia


Taiwan is staging military exercises to show its ability to resist Chinese pressure to accept Beijing's political control over the self-governing island.




www.abc.net.au

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> North Korea looks to send labourers to Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine
> 
> 
> The head of Russia's proxy forces in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region sends a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling for cooperation in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
> ...



Knowing the hunger situation in NK, the laborers probably…

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 17, 2022)

The funny/sad thing is I was reading an article that Russia has not been able to fed their own troops either.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> I wonder what lessons learned the Russians might bring to those exercises?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Vodka.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> The funny/sad thing is I was reading an article that Russia has not been able to fed their own troops either.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 17, 2022)

Here it is:








Russia failing to properly pay, feed military recruits in Ukraine–report


Russia is also failing to pay for funeral arrangements for volunteer soldiers killed, as promised, according to the think tank report.




www.newsweek.com

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## Glider (Aug 17, 2022)

Just when you thought it couldn't get more stupid

Russia’s new rocket-launching robot attack dog may not be all it seems

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## GrauGeist (Aug 17, 2022)

Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:

1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.

2) Hitler's assault on Moscow bogs down and stalls, resulting in a costly retreat.
Putin's assault on Kyiv bogs down and stalls, resulting in a costly retreat.

3) After initial successes, Hitler's army encounters increasing resistance, resulting in a stalled offensive with high losses in men and equipment.
After initial successes, Putin's army encounters increasing resistance, resulting in a stalled offensive with high losses in men and equipment.

4) Hitler's military targets civilians in cities and villages as well as committing attrocities.
Putin's military targets civilians in cities and villages as well as committing atrocities.

5) The German Army suffers from poor supply and logistics.
The Russian Army suffers from poor supply and logistics.

6) Hitler insists that Germany is winning and the state media pumps out all sorts of nonsense to that effect.
Putin insists that Russia is winning and the state media pumps out all sorts of nonsense to that effect.

7) Hitler carries on about "wonder weapons".
Putin carries on about "wonder weapons".

How are we doing so far?

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## gumbyk (Aug 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:
> 
> 1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
> Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.
> ...


Assassination attempts?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> North Korea looks to send labourers to Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine
> 
> 
> The head of Russia's proxy forces in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region sends a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calling for cooperation in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
> ...



The DPRK selling slave labor ... unsurprising. They've done this before in Siberia, and now they're using the war to fatten their coffers.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:
> 
> 1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
> Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.
> ...



We're told that deNazifying Ukraine is going along swimmingly!


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:
> 
> 1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
> Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.
> ...


8) Lend Lease, at first slow becomes an avalanche of the best weapons the US and Allies can provide.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:
> 
> 1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
> Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.



Hitler was rabidly anti-communist, and anti-communism was a fundamental plank of Nazi ideology. So I don't think eliminating Communism was a "pretense" - it was one of primary motivators (the others being German nationalism/Lebansraum and anti-semitism) for the invasion of the USSR.

Also, Putin's invasion wasn't really much of a surprise. 

Various intelligence agencies (notably the US and the UK) had been warning about Putin's intentions concerning Ukraine for months prior to the invasion. There were various formal meeting and communications trying to warn Russia off an invasion as early as the start of November 2021. I think there was even Western media speculation/informed guesswork about a potential invasion as far back as mid 2021, following the first series of Russian wargames near the Ukrainian border.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 18, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Hitler was rabidly anti-communist, and anti-communism was a fundamental plank of Nazi ideology. So I don't think eliminating Communism was a "pretense" - it was one of primary motivators (the others being German nationalism/Lebansraum and anti-semitism) for the invasion of the USSR.
> 
> Also, Putin's invasion wasn't really much of a surprise.
> 
> Various intelligence agencies (notably the US and the UK) had been warning about Putin's intentions concerning Ukraine for months prior to the invasion. There were various formal meeting and communications trying to warn Russia off an invasion as early as the start of November 2021. I think there was even Western media speculation/informed guesswork about a potential invasion as far back as mid 2021, following the first series of Russian wargames near the Ukrainian border.


And Hitler's operation wasn't much if a surprise, either - as it was (and still is) the largest mass movement of troops in history.

Hitler's anti-communist pretense for invading the Soviet Union was legitimate. Yes, he hated Communists, but he wanted the natural resources that the Soviet Union offered more.

Putin's anti-Nazi pretense is just an attempt to regain former Soviet Union territory.

Of course, both were/are directly interested in the agricultural, mineral and metal resources of the Ukraine region, too.


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## J_P_C (Aug 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so let's go back to February, when there was some comparisons made between Hitler and Putin and see how it stacks up so far:
> 
> 1) Hitler launches surprise attack on Russia under the pretenses of eliminating Communism.
> Putin launches surprise attack on Ukraine under the pretenses of eliminating Nazism.
> ...


perfect! i'm waiting for the end of this story...

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## at6 (Aug 18, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> perfect! i'm waiting for the end of this story...


Hopefully it will end in a bunker under the Kremlin and soon.

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 18, 2022)

Minister: Estonia, Finland to integrate coastal missile defense systems


Finland and Estonia will integrate their coastal missile defense which would allow the countries to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships if necessary, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) told Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.




news.err.ee





Did Putin said something along the lines that this war special military operation was to avoid being surrounded by NATO?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> The funny/sad thing is I was reading an article that Russia has not been able to fed their own troops either.



After working with Russian troops in Kosovo I am not surprised. They were poorly equipped and fed there too. I had one try and trade me for my winter boots because he was only issued summer ones, and it was brutally cold and snowy.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And Hitler's operation wasn't much if a surprise, either - as it was (and still is) the largest mass movement of troops in history.
> 
> Hitler's anti-communist pretense for invading the Soviet Union was legitimate. Yes, he hated Communists, but he wanted the natural resources that the Soviet Union offered more.
> 
> ...



I think Hitler's overarching strategy was to enable German autarky which required adequate resources and "lebensraum" for the German people. That drove the definition of non-German people as lesser humans who were unworthy to own the land that they had, hence justifying its aggressive capture. 

Hitler's message clearly captured a populist--and, obviously, nationalist--sentiment in Germany. There are echoes of similarly populist messages in many countries today...which I find rather frightening. To-date, Putin is the only one who acted militarily on such a populist message. I fear it may not be the last.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 18, 2022)

This is a pretty good article and the video is definitely worth a watch:









Ukraine war: Drone pilots mark targets for new offensive


Small units play a key role in targeting Russian armour as Ukraine attempts to retake Kherson.



www.bbc.com





One can only hope that Ukrainian aspirations to retake Kherson in a few weeks become a reality.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Did Putin said something along the lines that this war special military operation was to avoid being surrounded by NATO?




_Whatsoever I've feared has come to life
And whatsoever I've fought off became my life
Just when everyday seemed to greet me with a smile
Sunspots have faded, now I'm doing time
Now I'm doing time
'Cause I fell on black days
I fell on black days

So what you wanted to see good
Has made you blind
And what you wanted to be yours
Has made it mine
So don't you lock up something
That you wanted to see fly
Hands are for shaking
No, not tying, no, not tying_.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> One can only hope that Ukrainian aspirations to retake Kherson in a few weeks become a reality.


NATO's appetite for supporting Ukraine's ongoing armed resistance won't be endless. Eventually, likely by early 2023 some of the more spineless Western nations will begin pushing for Ukraine to begin talks with Russia on ending the war wherever the line is. Chief among them will be France and Germany, especially as the latter freezes without Russian gas this winter.
I also expect Zelenskyy's new demands on regaining Crimea as a peace condition has rattled some supporters who at best wanted Ukraine to settle on regaining the Feb 2022 borders. 

So, Ukraine has at best six months left to seize as much territory as it can. Of course in six months Ukraine may have enough weapons, and Russia huge manpower, arms and economic losses, to tell those weaker NATO supporters to pound sand.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 18, 2022)

What is with this term "appetite" when referring to support for Ukraine?

Zelensky appealed to the world for help and the world responded.


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## Denniss (Aug 18, 2022)

another General/Admiral fired?








Russia changes head of Black Sea Fleet amid Crimea strikes


The Kremlin has reportedly ousted the head of its Black Sea Fleet after a series of apparent Ukrainian attacks on occupied Crimea, where the fleet is based




nypost.com

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## Glider (Aug 18, 2022)

Those western weapons that Russia said were not having an impact on the conflict are clearly more effective than they said



Russia activists beg West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine to kill Moscow troops

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What is with this term "appetite" when referring to support for Ukraine? Zelensky [_sic_] appealed to the world for help and the world responded.


By appetite I suggest there is a limit, like in all philanthropy to the support the world is willing to give. Zelenskyy must not assume, and I suggest he does not that the West's support is endless. Eventually France, Germany and other weaker willed (or they may argue, pragmatic) states will push Ukraine to settle.


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## Denniss (Aug 18, 2022)

Nonsense, neither France nor Germany will do such a dick move.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

Denniss said:


> another General/Admiral fired?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


_"A British Defense Ministry intelligence update this week said the fleet has been in an "extremely defensive posture" in the waters off Crimea, barely venturing beyond the coast. The Russian fleet's "limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy," the British said. "This means Ukraine can divert resources to press Russian ground forces elsewhere.""_

This reminds me of how after the cruiser General Belgrano was sunk the Argentine navy returned to port and played no further part in the invasion of the Falklands. This allowed the British forces to be focused elsewhere.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> By appetite I suggest there is a limit, like in all philanthropy to the support the world is willing to give. Zelenskyy must not assume, and I suggest he does not that the West's support is endless. Eventually France, Germany and other weaker willed (or they may argue, pragmatic) states will push Ukraine to settle.



I don't believe most leaders in the West see this as "philanthropy" at all. I think most if not all of them realize that this is also an important point of self-interest; that stopping Putin here is vital to a peaceful international order and that failing to act now will end up in acquiescing to further autocratic demands.

As such, their duty is to explain to Western populations why this material support is necessary. The battle is over Western public opinion. If the people understand the dangers clearly, they will continue supporting the Ukrainians.

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

Ukraine warns of Zaporizhzhia 'disaster' as Russia rejects UN proposal to demilitarise the area


Russia says it could shut down Europe's largest nuclear power plant due to the threat of shelling, a move Kyiv says would increase the risk of a nuclear catastrophe there.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)



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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/17/ukraine-russia-bombs-slogans-fundraising/

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## swampyankee (Aug 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't believe most leaders in the West see this as "philanthropy" at all. I think most if not all of them realize that this is also an important point of self-interest; that stopping Putin here is vital to a peaceful international order and that failing to act now will end up in acquiescing to further autocratic demands.
> 
> As such, their duty is to explain to Western populations why this material support is necessary. The battle is over Western public opinion. If the people understand the dangers clearly, they will continue supporting the Ukrainians.


I agree. While there are inconveniences to the European countries (many Americans whine about the cost of gasoline hitting $4/gal because of Putin's invasion, but many European countries are seeing similar hikes -- gasoline was about €2/L during my recent trip to Italy -- plus the prospect of not having electricity due to lack of natural gas), spending money on defending Ukraine weakens Putin and makes it less likely he'll attack, say, Poland.

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

The US has been quietly giving Ukraine radar-hunting missiles that could really be a problem for Russia


The presence of AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles in Ukraine will make Russian troops think twice before powering up their radars.




www.businessinsider.com

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

_A BRITISH ARMY BASE, England (AP) — A few weeks ago, Serhiy was a business analyst at an IT company. Zakhar was a civil engineer. Now they are soldiers, training to liberate Ukraine from Russia’s invasion — but doing it more than 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away in Britain.

They are among several hundred Ukrainian recruits pounding through an intense form of infantry training at an army base in southeast England. One batch of the 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers that the British military has pledged to train within 120 days, they are spending several weeks learning skills including marksmanship, battlefield first aid and –- crucially for their country’s future — urban warfare.

As the Ukrainians practice house-clearing amid the rattle of gunfire and pall from smoke grenades on a mock-townscape where British soldiers once trained for operations in Northern Ireland, they think about driving Russian troops from the streets of their own cities..

“The most important part is urban training, because it’s the most dangerous combat, in cities,” said Serhiy, who like the other Ukrainians did not want his full named used because of security concerns. “The British instructors have a lot of experience, from Iraq, Afghanistan. We can adapt all this knowledge to the Ukrainian situation and use it to liberate our country from Russian invasion.”_









Urban combat and beyond: Ukrainian recruits get UK training


A BRITISH ARMY BASE, England (AP) — A few weeks ago, Serhiy was a business analyst at an IT company. Zakhar was a civil engineer. Now they are soldiers, training to liberate Ukraine from Russia's invasion — but doing it more than 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away in Britain.




apnews.com





Bravo, Limeys!

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## ARTESH (Aug 18, 2022)

Last time I checked this thread, it was p. 93!

379 unread pages!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> View attachment 682775
> 
> 
> Last time I checked this thread, it was p. 93!
> ...



Get to work!

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> View attachment 682775
> 
> 
> Last time I checked this thread, it was p. 93!
> ...


Get comfortable, pour yourself a fresh coffee and start reading...

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## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

It was the coastal paradise seized by Putin. Then Ukrainian attacks sent Russian holidaymakers fleeing


Russian holidaymakers lazing at beach clubs by the light blue waters on the Crimean Peninsula were sent running by several huge explosions last week. The new threat posed by Ukraine has seen roads out of the peninsula choked as people try to leave.




www.abc.net.au

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## ARTESH (Aug 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Get to work!


Already done!

Fortunately, or unfortunately, depends, I have lots of friends in Gaming, Programming and streaming Communities, from both sides!

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## ARTESH (Aug 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Get comfortable, pour yourself a fresh coffee and start reading...


I need something stronger than coffee to control both my mind and tongue, when reading / talking about sad news like this one, or more recent one that happened in US soil.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Already done!
> 
> Fortunately, or unfortunately, depends, I have lots of friends in Gaming, Programming and streaming Communities, from both sides!



I did this when I discovered the P-39 thread that also runs a few hundred pages, to which I was a late-comer as well: did my usual reading and shitposting when others here were active, and when no conversations were active here (later at night, weekends, etc) I'd keep following up that thread. It took me a few weeks but I caught up. I don't like missing the little eddies in a whirlpool of conversation.

This thread, I will say, is much more worthy of complete reading. We share news, information, experiences, speculation, and cheers without the trollery that was happening in the Thread That is Groundhog Day®. 

This thread, in a sense, is a form of living history in that it has many members posting much info from a wide variety of sources. It's much better than simply following one or two main news sources; you get links to articles on the Ukraine War from all over the place and can chase them down at your leisure as your interest is piqued. I have learnt so much here, both about the war and the countries fighting it.

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## Glider (Aug 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> _"A British Defense Ministry intelligence update this week said the fleet has been in an "extremely defensive posture" in the waters off Crimea, barely venturing beyond the coast. The Russian fleet's "limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy," the British said. "This means Ukraine can divert resources to press Russian ground forces elsewhere.""_
> 
> This reminds me of how after the cruiser General Belgrano was sunk the Argentine navy returned to port and played no further part in the invasion of the Falklands. This allowed the British forces to be focused elsewhere.


Russia has a history of '_extremely defensive posture_' when it comes to it's navy. 

One little known fact. In WW2 the Soviet surface fleet (above MTB's) sank, nothing, not even a merchant ship, in the entire war.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Nonsense, neither France nor Germany will do such a dick move.


Neither can be trusted to stick with Ukraine long term.









France's Macron: Ukraine President will have to negotiate with Russia at some point


French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that Ukraine would have to hold talks with Russia at some point, in order to try and bring an end to the war between the two countries.




www.reuters.com













It’s Time for Olaf Scholz to Walk His Talk


Since announcing revolutionary changes in German defense, Berlin has been dragging its feet nonstop.




foreignpolicy.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Neither can be trusted to stick with Ukraine long term.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



On the other hand, they are not supplying nearly so much equipment or training as America or the UK, so whatever pressure those nations may decide to apply has much less leverage.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 18, 2022)

France and Germany both have a long history of political posturing, so take what you read with a grain of salt. Macron has been going on about "talks" since March - continuing to say this keeps him relevant.

France has provided a considerable amount of aid (military and otherwise) to Ukraine, but both French and Ukrainian officials don't talk much about it in the public forum.

Germany is the "waffle master", when it comes to aid. They have indeed provided a great deal, but have a history of backing out of promised material and I suspect this is due to squabbles inside their political circles.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

Unconfirmed new strikes.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did you see the HIMARS launching a cigarette?

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## at6 (Aug 19, 2022)

Ive heard a report on some channel that Russian personnel have been told not to show up at the Nuclear power plant and they are threatening to shut it down. Is it now possible that Orclanders intend to cause a melt down?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> Ive heard a report on some channel that Russian personnel have been told not to show up at the Nuclear power plant and they are threatening to shut it down. Is it now possible that Orclanders intend to cause a melt down?


It's possible, but they seem to forget that prevailing winds will cause fallout to drift to the east - which is Russia.
Unless Putin wants to use the fallout as a ruse excuse to claim that Russia is being nuked and he is obligated to retaliate...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Unconfirmed new strikes.



The fireworks in Belgorod ammo dump confirmed by oblast governor:









Russia Increasingly Feeling Sting Of War Behind The Lines


Every day, new targets inside Russia and Crimea are blowing up and by all indications this is just the beginning.




www.thedrive.com

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## J_P_C (Aug 19, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Aug 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I did this when I discovered the P-39 thread


If Russia is going to win this they are definitely going to need the P-39. Maybe they could appeal to the U.S. to start up Lend/Lease again

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 19, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> View attachment 682836


Nearly two thousand tanks destroyed. Just how many more operational tanks does Russia have?









Russia loses 19 tanks and armored vehicles in a single day: Ukraine


Earlier this week a Pentagon official praised the Ukrainian army for its "12 out of 10" performance in combating Russia's aggression in the country.




www.newsweek.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 19, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> If Russia is going to win this they are definitely going to need the P-39. Maybe they could appeal to the U.S. to start up Lend/Lease again


With or without nose armour?

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## J_P_C (Aug 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nearly two thousand tanks destroyed. Just how many more operational tanks does Russia have?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


some sources suggesting that they have lost nearly 80% of tanks equipped with "modern" fire control systems - most they are sending in combat right now are blind in limited visibility conditions... probably this assasement is quite optymistic but for sure orcs army is not in the shape they have been in february and this process will speed up

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 19, 2022)

Drones aside, we've yet to see the UAF field any NATO/EU origin fixed wing and rotary combat aircraft. I assume the UAF is busily training on these types. When can we expect to see the first UAF F-16, JAS 39, AH64, etc? 

And for that matter, any plans or timeline for UAF Abrams, Leo2 or Challengers? Or is the idea still to reinforce NATO's eastern members with these types so to free up more T-72s for donation to Ukraine? How many T-72s can there possibly be left in Europe to donate?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 19, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> If Russia is going to win this they are definitely going to need the P-39. Maybe they could appeal to the U.S. to start up Lend/Lease again


At this rate, they may have to be pulling stuff out of museums, so you're not that far off the mark.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 19, 2022)

Good website tally on aid to Ukraine. Appears to be updated regularly.









Arms Transfers to Ukraine


Resource page on arms transfers to Urkaine.



www.forumarmstrade.org





Unfortunately the website seems to focus more on the announcements of aid rather than the actual execution of aid.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 19, 2022)

Interesting Foreign Affairs article on Russian failures in Ukraine: Russia’s Repeat Failures

The paragraph below summarizes the findings if you can't access the full article. 

_"Although Russia has had six months to learn from these mistakes, it appears poised to once again commit its depleted forces to an untenable mission: annexing and holding Ukraine's Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Provinces, or oblasts. Holding this territory will require substantial amounts of manpower and armored equipment—particularly given that the regions have contested frontlines and that Russian forces in each experience organized partisan attacks. And Moscow has lost its most advanced equipment, for which it does not have equivalent replacements. The Russian armed forces have also suffered tens of thousands of casualties, including well-trained personnel, and its current strategy for replenishment—recruiting new soldiers from a motley mix of communities and armed groups—will not create a combat effective force. There remains, in short, a mismatch between the Kremlin's goals for Ukraine and the forces it has to deliver them." _

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 19, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> some sources suggesting that they have lost nearly 80% of tanks equipped with "modern" fire control systems - most they are sending in combat right now are blind in limited visibility conditions... probably this assasement is quite optymistic but for sure orcs army is not in the shape they have been in february and this process will speed up



The T-62's thermal imaging rangefinder is limited to 800 meters or so, iirc.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _its current strategy for replenishment—recruiting new soldiers from a motley mix of communities and armed groups—will not create a combat effective force. _


And yet against this motley mix we've not seen Ukraine regain territory. Hopefully the coming offensive on Kherson is the beginning of big advances for the UAF.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet against this motley mix we've not seen Ukraine regain territory. Hopefully the coming offensive on Kherson is the beginning of big advances for the UAF.



Actually, Ukraine has regained a lot of territory. Remember Russia's attempt to capture/neutralize Kyiv in February/March? That entire region has been liberated of Russian forces. There was the offensive in the north that pushed Russian forces back across the border, plus ongoing efforts to retake Kherson (see map below - source BBC):







While I agree that we haven't seen a sweeping Ukrainian advance leading to a wholesale Russian retreat, to say that Ukraine hasn't regained territory is taking an overly negative view of this conflict. In addition, it's worth remembering that Russia vastly outnumbers Ukraine in the sheer size of military forces. It's tough to go on the offensive if you're outnumbered.

Personally, I think Ukraine is playing a very canny game and they're meeting with successes. At some point, Russia will tire of the fighting and the resultant losses that can't be replaced. The lengths to which Russia is going to replace lost forces are remarkable but I entirely agree that it won't result in a capable combat force. Arguably, the forces today are less capable than they were in February...which is perhaps why we're seeing the Russian offensive stalling and Ukraine making some inroads to recapture territory. 

This is an unwinnable war for Moscow. All Ukraine has to do is not lose it, while all the West must do is avoid triggering a nuclear decision by Putin.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 19, 2022)

Add to that, Ukrainians currently in training on new weapon systems as well as new ground forces undergoing training.
All the Ukraine military has to do, is keep Russia at bay until this next wave of trained personnel is ready to take to the field in large numbers.

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## GTX (Aug 19, 2022)

*Part 1: Before the war:



Part 2: Preparation & start of the invasion:

*

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Add to that, Ukrainians currently in training on new weapon systems as well as new ground forces undergoing training.
> All the Ukraine military has to do, is keep Russia at bay until this next wave of trained personnel is ready to take to the field in large numbers.


It does remind me of the Soviet Union’s experience in Barbarrosa, where they traded land for time, and then once equipped with superior kit in large numbers came back and regained all the land they’d temporarily ceded, and more. Hopefully this is Ukraine’s experience too - though I’m not as optimistic on Crimea.

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 19, 2022)

GTX, that is a great post and some really interesting reading.

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## GTX (Aug 19, 2022)

Watch the secret training of Ukrainian soldiers with L118 light gun in UK - Defence View


Ukrainian artillerymen are currently undergoing active training in the UK, where they are mastering 105-mm L118 light field gun at the artillery range.




www.defenceview.in

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## buffnut453 (Aug 19, 2022)

Interesting article about the wider impact of the recent Ukrainian attacks in Crimea. 

Can’t recall if it’s been posted on this thread earlier but apparently the Russian Black Sea Fleet commander has been sacked.









Ukraine's Crimean fightback having 'psychological impact' on Russia


Western officials reveal the impact of recent Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied peninsula.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't believe most leaders in the West see this as "philanthropy" at all. I think most if not all of them realize that this is also an important point of self-interest; that stopping Putin here is vital to a peaceful international order and that failing to act now will end up in acquiescing to further autocratic demands.
> 
> As such, their duty is to explain to Western populations why this material support is necessary. The battle is over Western public opinion. If the people understand the dangers clearly, they will continue supporting the Ukrainians.



Forgive my quoting myself above, but the support in the following article is not "philanthropy", this is putting your money where your mouth is:

_The United States will send another $775 million in missiles, drones, vehicles and mine clearing equipment to Ukraine to help in its war with Russia as the conflict enters a near standstill, the Pentagon announced Friday.

The new assistance package will include 16 howitzers and ammunition, AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 15 Scan Eagle reconnaissance drones, and armored vehicles, among other armaments, a senior Defense official told reporters. 

[...]

A standout in the latest lethal aid tranche is the HARM, which can be fired from Ukrainian aircraft, have a range of at least 30 miles and are designed to find and destroy radar-equipped air defense systems. The missiles have been credited with taking out some of Russia’s most dangerous weapons systems in Ukraine in recent weeks. 

Also included are the Scan Eagle unmanned aerial systems — the first time the U.S. has provided the drone to Kyiv — which will give Ukrainians “better reconnaissance around the front lines,” the official said. 

In addition, the package will consist of 1,000 Javelins; 36,000 105 mm artillery rounds; mine clearing equipment; 40 mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles, to allow Ukrainian troops to travel through areas rigged with mines; 1,500 tube-launched optically tracked wire-guided missiles; 2,000 anti-armor rounds; 50 Humvees; tactical secure communication systems; night vision devices; thermal imagery systems; and optics and laser range finders. _



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3608169-pentagon-announces-extra-775m-in-weapons-to-ukraine/



This American taxpayer fully supports it. I wish they'd send more HARMs, and the ATACMs for the MLRS units.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 19, 2022)

I think before we send more evil weapons of violence we acknowledge how we may have contributed to Mr. Putin's need to lash out at his neighbors. A century of othering the Russians because they had thrown off the yoke of imperialist oppression has left deep wounds that can only be healed through dialogue, and an admission that we too bear the shame for our nation's crimes against the Russian people. 
Or something...

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 19, 2022)

I think its those godless Swiss.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 19, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I think before we send more evil weapons of violence we acknowledge how we may have contributed to Mr. Putin's need to lash out at his neighbors. A century of othering the Russians because they had thrown off the yoke of imperialist oppression has left deep wounds that can only be healed through dialogue, and an admission that we too bear the shame for our nation's crimes against the Russian people.
> Or something...



On the other hand we're fighting the Man! Stand up for your rights and fight off the oppressor!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 19, 2022)

An overview of the recent setbacks suffered by the Russians. Rather than a lengthy quote covering some items already mentioned, I'll simply lay the link down and those interested can run it down and comment as they see fit:









Blasts, fresh drone attacks rock Russian-held areas far from Ukraine war front


The drone assaults come after explosions erupted near military bases in Russian-held areas of Ukraine and Russia itself, apparent displays of Kyiv's growing ability to pummel Moscow's assets far from front lines.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (Aug 19, 2022)

Interesting development....Putin offers to allow inspections of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant:









Ukraine war: Russia to allow inspectors at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - Putin


Russia captured the Zaporizhzhia facility in March and is accused of using it as a military base.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Aug 20, 2022)

Putler may have just realized that irradiating western Russia might have some downside. I watched a video with an expert (well, he did speak rather posh) say that there may be Article 5 implications if NATO members were to suffer collateral damage from essentially a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb acknowledged to be under Russian control.

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## Denniss (Aug 20, 2022)

Viable Strategy ?
Use some small expendable drones over Crimea to have russian air defense react and lit up their radar, getting them in harm's way.
It may be possible they already tested this over the Black Sea Navy HQ today with some smaller attack drones. their air defense was proud to have them shot down.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> On the other hand we're fighting the Man! Stand up for your rights and fight off the oppressor!


I'm getting older every day. Would it be okay if I sat down a bit for my rights?

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 20, 2022)

Oooh! A sit in. Very '70s.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 20, 2022)

Seems a propos:

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## GTX (Aug 20, 2022)

Quite pathetic:









Stars Coffee, anyone? Old Starbucks stores reopen in Russia with imitation branding — and menu


Starbucks was one of the earliest and highest-profile Western companies to pull out of Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, but its stores are now being reopened — with a name, logo and menu that are almost the same.




www.abc.net.au

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 20, 2022)

I was behind the iron curtain when i was young. Trust me. No contest there, nor will it be. It will be yukkie coffee and old news paper cookies taste once again.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 20, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I was behind the iron curtain when i was young. Trust me. No contest there, nor will it be. It will be yukkie coffee and old news paper cookies taste once again.


Oh Boy! Just like Mom made!!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 20, 2022)

_Aug 20 (Reuters) - New blasts resounded in the Russian-annexed Crimea peninsula on Saturday and a Russian missile hit a residential area of a southern Ukrainian town not far from a nuclear power station, wounding 12 civilians, Russian and Ukrainian officials said.

That strike at the Pivdennoukrainsk (South Ukraine) nuclear station and fresh shelling near the Zaporizhzhia station, Europe's largest such facility, prompted new fears of a nuclear accident during the war, Ukrainian officials said.

In Crimea, Ukrainian territory seized and annexed by Russia during a 2014 incursion into Ukraine, the Russian-appointed governor not recognised by the West said a drone had struck a building near the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Saturday morning.

"A drone flew onto the roof. It was flying low," governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram. "It was downed right over the Fleet headquarters. It fell on the roof and burned up. The attack failed."_









Blasts hit Crimea, Russian missile wounds 12 near nuclear plant in southern Ukraine


The strike at the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear station and fresh shelling near the Zaporizhzhia station, Europe's largest such facility, prompted new fears of a nuclear accident during the war, Ukrainian officials said.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Aug 20, 2022)

Ukrainian drone attacks hit Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea, missile attacks near nuclear plant injure 12


Russia says a drone attack struck a building near the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet, adding the attack failed, fell on the roof, and burned up.




www.abc.net.au


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## wlewisiii (Aug 20, 2022)

Well well well. Looks like the MiG-29 can be set up to carry HARM...









Ukrainian MiG-29s Are Firing AGM-88 Anti-Radiation Missiles


The Pentagon has now confirmed sending AGM-88 missiles to Ukraine and that they have been integrated onto the country's MiG-29s.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well well well. Looks like the MiG-29 can be set up to carry HARM...
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukrainian drone attacks hit Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea, missile attacks near nuclear plant injure 12
> 
> 
> Russia says a drone attack struck a building near the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet, adding the attack failed, fell on the roof, and burned up.
> ...



Of course it failed. The Russians are reporting it as such.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well well well. Looks like the MiG-29 can be set up to carry HARM...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It’s amazing that the Ukrainians can still operate their MiGs in the open. Where the heck is the VVS?



GTX said:


> Ukrainian drone attacks hit Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea, missile attacks near nuclear plant injure 12
> 
> 
> Russia says a drone attack struck a building near the headquarters of its Black Sea fleet, adding the attack failed, fell on the roof, and burned up.
> ...


Does hitting an office building at the naval base have much impact? I’d want to hit the ships and aircraft present, unless there's a vip in the office.

I have to like the MiG-29. I remember as a lad in the early 1980s seeing the first photos and drawings.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Well well well. Looks like the MiG-29 can be set up to carry HARM...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Did anyone catch the tail number of the HARM equipped MiG? Was it a former NATO plane?


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## SaparotRob (Aug 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s amazing that the Ukrainians can still operate their MiGs in the open. Where the heck is the VVS?


Last I heard, they were having a smoke at Saky Airbase.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does hitting an office building at the naval base have much impact? I’d want to hit the ships and aircraft present, unless there's a vip in the office.



A unit without a functioning HQ has lost a lot of its strength already. You're an admiral -- what happens when you hit the bridge squarely? Right: you get a 30,000-ton target. _Hiei_ was lost mainly because _Laffey_ shot up the BC's upperworks, including the bridge, in an attack that wounded the Japanese admiral. Sunk a day later by the Cactus Air Force, that likely would not have happened if the ship's leadership was intact. Look also at how the _Bismarck_'s targeting system was disabled very early in its final battle, and how that forced local and therefore less-accurate aiming.

Crippling C³ is a very important task. Those planes and ships don't go anywhere if the fuel is blown up and there's no clerks to arrange resupply. Likewise ammo if those dumps aren't replaced. 

Nor if the guy in charge is unable to make good decisions.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Last I heard, they were having a smoke at Saky Airbase.


That’s a dozen or so aircraft. Why isn’t the Russian airforce bombing the crap out of Ukraine’s air bases? Are they bombing their own territory?









Russian air force fires at Kerch in Crimea, explosions reported


The Russian air force fired at targets around the Crimean city of Kerch on Thursday, despite the Ukrainian peninsula being occupied by Moscow since 2014.




www.thestar.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s a dozen or so aircraft. Why isn’t the Russian airforce bombing the crap out of Ukraine’s air bases? Are they bombing their own territory?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Those 12 planes -- it was eight or nine in the reports I've read -- represented about 50% of the Black Sea's air fleet.

Why aren't the Russians seizing air supremacy? We've been asking this for months now, but I think the thing is is that for most targets, they have to get down low and expose themselves to SAMs/MANPADs. They also had a big misimpression that Shock and Awe® would work for them and did not think they would need that much air support. That's my opinion, and that's all it is, so fire away.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 20, 2022)

I hope this is Russian resistance rather than Ukrainian special ops.

Darya Dugin: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow bomb - report

If Ukraine starts blowing up the family members of those associated with its opponents it may begin to look like the Troubles, needlessly testing the resolve of Ukraine‘s backers.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

This article is 6 years old but it provides so e interesting insights into the logic of Russian messaging:









The Russians who fear a war with the West


Gabriel Gatehouse analyses why Russia increasingly sees the world differently from the West.



www.bbc.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope this is Russian resistance rather than Ukrainian special ops.
> 
> Darya Dugin: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow bomb - report
> 
> If Ukraine starts blowing up the family members of those associated with its opponents it may begin to look like the Troubles, needlessly testing the resolve of Ukraine‘s backers.



"Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin" caught my eye.
When reading that I just though, umm that sentence should be next to "German philosopher Joseph Goebbels"

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## SaparotRob (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s a dozen or so aircraft. Why isn’t the Russian airforce bombing the crap out of Ukraine’s air bases? Are they bombing their own territory?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There was a report of one of the Ukrainian strikes with a high casualty rate. I think that was at Saky Airbase and not just the strike at Wagner HQ. The Russians may not have the aircrew.


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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 21, 2022)

Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That's the case with Putin








Lawrence Freedman: ‘Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That’s the case with Putin’


The military strategy expert and author of a new book on conflict says the flawed thinking behind Russia’s invasion stems from the inability of those at the top to take responsibility for mistakes




www.theguardian.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 21, 2022)

Let’s hope he’s right

Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally

_“A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

_Aug 21 (Reuters) - Russia said on Sunday that its Kalibr missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS rocket in Ukraine's southeastern Odesa region, while Kyiv said a granary had been hit.

Russia's defence ministry said sea-based Kalibr missiles had destroyed a depot that also housed Western-made anti-aircraft systems.

A spokesman for Odesa's regional administration said two missiles had been shot down over the sea, but that three had struck agricultural targets.

There were no casualties, the spokesman, Serhiy Bratchuk, said on Telegram. An explosives expert and investigators were working at the granary, he said.

Reuters was not able to immediately verify the battlefield reports.

Russia's defence ministry also said its forces had destroyed two M777 Howitzers in combat positions in the Kherson region, and a fuel depot in the Zaporizhzhia region that it said was storing more than 100 tonnes of diesel fuel._









Russian missiles strike Ukraine's Odesa region


Russia said on Sunday that its Kalibr missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS rocket in Ukraine's southeastern Odesa region, while Kyiv said a granary had been hit.




www.reuters.com





I sure hope this is Russian bluster. The Ukrainians need every missile we can ship.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s hope he’s right
> 
> Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally
> 
> _“A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."_



_
Aug 21 (Reuters) - The daughter of an ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue who advocates Russia absorbing Ukraine was killed in a suspected car bomb attack outside Moscow, Russian state investigators said on Sunday.

Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent ideologue Alexander Dugin, was killed on Saturday evening after a suspected explosive device blew up the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving, investigators said.

[...]

Russia's TASS state news agency quoted Andrei Krasnov, someone who knew Dugina, as saying the vehicle belonged to her father and that he was probably the intended target._









Daughter of Russian ideologue killed in suspected car bomb attack


Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, was killed on Saturday evening after a suspected explosive device blew up the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving, investigators said.




www.reuters.com





It looks like Russia is trying to pin this on Ukraine in order to sap its moral standing in the West.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s hope he’s right
> 
> Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally
> 
> _“A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."_



It doesn’t really matter if Podolyak is right. Putin can easily play this as Ukrainian terrorism aided and abetted by the US.

I hope this doesn’t mark an escalation of this conflict…but i think it will, alas.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 21, 2022)

"Fair and balanced" does not come to mind when talking about the Russian press. Any exhaustive research will come from the FSB.

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## Glider (Aug 21, 2022)

I find it hard to believe that Ukraine had anything to do with an attack in Russia. There is no win for them if they had succeeded plus the planning and logistical challenges would be overwhelming.
That said, clearly someone did and that it the worrying thing for Putin. He himself is an impossible target but people who hate him, can hit those around him. The only thing I believe we can be sure of is that there are some serious, deep, issues and concerns around in the higher ranks of Putin and his followers.

Remember the May day flypast that was cancelled that morning after weeks of practices because of the bad weather, on a clear, still, blue sky day. It can only be because there were serious concerns that someone might have a go at Putin from the air. 

All is not well at the top and I do hope our Intelligence people know what it is

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## GrauGeist (Aug 21, 2022)

I would not put it past Putin to be behind this, in order to further his cause. 

If the Ukrainians wanted to start assassinating top officials, they have had plenty of opportunities to strike them before now and wouldn't have had to go all the way to Moscow to do so.

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## Dimlee (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope this is Russian resistance rather than Ukrainian special ops.
> 
> Darya Dugin: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow bomb - report
> 
> If Ukraine starts blowing up the family members of those associated with its opponents it may begin to look like the Troubles, needlessly testing the resolve of Ukraine‘s backers.


I suspect false flag ops. Dugin is not a high value target for Ukraine. All possible damage was done by him already as a "philosopher" and a propagandist.

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## Dimlee (Aug 21, 2022)

According to Ukraine's Embassy in Prague, donations of "1968Kč" each began to arrive to the Embassy local accounts. Nice and symbolic gesture,

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## wlewisiii (Aug 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> According to Ukraine's Embassy in Prague, donations of "1968Kč" each began to arrive to the Embassy local accounts. Nice and symbolic gesture,


Do you have a link? I'd love to share that with friends.

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## Dimlee (Aug 21, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Do you have a link? I'd love to share that with friends.


Here you are.


https://m.facebook.com/pg/UkraineEmbassyinCzechia/posts/

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It doesn’t really matter if Podolyak is right. Putin can easily play this as Ukrainian terrorism aided and abetted by the US.


Of course it matters if Podolyak is right. Whatever Putin believes or purports is not relevant, but if the US and Euros come to believe that Ukrainian special ops are conducting terrorist attacks against civilians in Russia.… that’s not good for Ukraine.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Of course it matters if Podolyak is right. Whatever Putin believes or purports is not relevant, but if the US and Euros come to believe that Ukrainian special ops are conducting terrorist attacks against civilians in Russia.… that’s not good for Ukraine.



If this bombing was done by Ukrainian SF, then I'll eat my hat. I don't believe any western nation would believe that Ukraine could get an operative into Moscow who would have intimate knowledge of Dugin's travel plans. That's the stuff of "Mission Impossible" and other fictional "spy" stories.

The problem is that Putin will continue to control the narrative. He'll use this for internal Russian consumption to justify even more draconian laws that further restrict the limited freedoms that remain. He'll also use it on the international stage to show that Ukraine and the West are, indeed, attacking Mother Russia. It's this latter point that's so dangerous with this bombing...if Putin starts spouting that this was an actual attack on Russia, then who knows what will come next. 

Take a look at the 2016 article I posted earlier. It makes it abundantly clear that, in Russia, there's no such thing as absolute truth or right. "Truth" is very much in the eye of the person conveying the message...and that means Putin and the Russian State because all media are controlled. 

So I stick by my comment that it's irrelevant whether Podolyak is right or wrong. The odds of any proof (for or against) being available to western leaders are slim at best. Thus we're back to the old ideological and information war problem where the west denies involvement but Putin plays the blame game.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 21, 2022)

Yup. It's a local fight that hit the wrong target.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 21, 2022)

Ok, so media sources are now stating that Darya and Alexander travelled together from his home to attend a festival and she then drove home in her dad's car while he rode home in another car.

The question is, why not set the bomb at his house and get him (them) at that point. Why wait until after the festival to blow him (them) up?


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## wlewisiii (Aug 21, 2022)

Slightly more interesting as far as this fat old tanker is concerned, there is video of a homebrewed Ukrainian tank destroyer made by putting a towed MT-12 ATG on top of an MTLB.

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## J_P_C (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The T-62's thermal imaging rangefinder is limited to 800 meters or so, iirc.


t-62 have no thermal sight - just active IR sight - in fact with theoretical range limited to 800m


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

I'd call the idea of Ukrainian involvement as vanishingly small. The cost-benefit analysis makes no sense at all -- as noted above, Ukraine has far too much to lose for a hit that will not have changed a single thing. 

I don't think I agree with the false-flag operation theory either. If any info about such a killing of his loyal subordinate got out, I bet any plotting against him 1) would be driven to even tighter security amongst any cabal and 2) would probably be made even more urgent. It may even fully alienate some in Moscow who are already having second thoughts.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so media sources are now stating that Darya and Alexander travelled together from his home to attend a festival and she then drove home in her dad's car while he rode home in another car.
> 
> The question is, why not set the bomb at his house and get him (them) at that point. Why wait until after the festival to blow him (them) up?



Access. A vehicle parked at a large event will probably be easier to get close to. Also, how big is their house? Do they have armed security?

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## wlewisiii (Aug 21, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> t-62 have no thermal sight - just active IR sight - in fact with theoretical range limited to 800m


Very very theoretical. The IR sights on an M-60A1 RISE Passive couldn't see that far under most circumstances.

The M-60A3 TTS, OTOH. would have been a long-range nightmare to the T-62, early T-64's & T-72's between the LRF, thermal sights, high quality ballistic computer and APFSDS ammo.

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## GTX (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope this is Russian resistance rather than Ukrainian special ops.
> 
> Darya Dugin: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow bomb - report
> 
> If Ukraine starts blowing up the family members of those associated with its opponents it may begin to look like the Troubles, needlessly testing the resolve of Ukraine‘s backers.


More:









Putin's 'spiritual guide' narrowly escapes car bomb as his daughter is blown up


VLADIMIR Putin’s “spiritual guide” Alexander Dugin narrowly escaped a car bomb attack that blew up his propagandist daughter, reports say. The Neo-Nazi mystic – said to be a…




www.the-sun.com


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> t-62 have no thermal sight - just active IR sight - in fact with theoretical range limited to 800m



I got the term wrong but the range right. My point was that its sensors are crap.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 21, 2022)

I’m just wondering what wine goes best with hat.


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## Glider (Aug 21, 2022)

Its worth remembering that an active IR sight is almost worse than useless. As passive sights will pick up the active signiture. Its like switching a light on at night and saying here I am

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## Dimlee (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd call the idea of Ukrainian involvement as vanishingly small. The cost-benefit analysis makes no sense at all -- as noted above, Ukraine has far too much to lose for a hit that will not have changed a single thing.
> 
> I don't think I agree with the false-flag operation theory either. If any info about such a killing of his loyal subordinate got out, I bet any plotting against him 1) would be driven to even tighter security amongst any cabal and 2) would probably be made even more urgent. It may even fully alienate some in Moscow who are already having second thoughts.


Dugin is not a loyal subordinate. He is an ideologist, a hardliner, "spiritual father". In his influence on leadership, he can be compared to some figures of the German Völkisch Nationalism. And Dugin is radical, he publicly called for an open and massive invasion in Ukraine in 2014.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s hope he’s right
> 
> Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally
> 
> _“A senior Ukrainian official denied responsibility for the attack. "Ukraine certainly had nothing to do with yesterday's explosion," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president, said in televised comments on Sunday morning. "We are not a criminal state like the Russian Federation, much less a terrorist one."_


Putin has a history of violence against his own people for political gain.

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## Dimlee (Aug 21, 2022)

Just another site about military assistance to Ukraine. All information is from open sources.








Military Aid to Ukraine


Weapons possessed, committed, provided




protectukrainenow.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Dugin is not a loyal subordinate. He is an ideologist, a hardliner, "spiritual father". In his influence on leadership, he can be compared to some figures of the German Völkisch Nationalism. And Dugin is radical, he publicly called for an open and massive invasion in Ukraine in 2014.



Sounds like a fellow-traveler of Putin's from my perspective.


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## wlewisiii (Aug 21, 2022)

Glider said:


> Its worth remembering that an active IR sight is almost worse than useless. As passive sights will pick up the active signiture. Its like switching a light on at night and saying here I am


Active sensors - IR, sonar, etc - are suicidal in the modern world.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Access. A vehicle parked at a large event will probably be easier to get close to. Also, how big is their house? Do they have armed security?


The FSB is everywhere (modern day Gestapo) and a large public gathering would be under their scrutiny for any potential demonstrations, which they've taken a hard line against.
People fooling with a vehicle in the car park would get their attention, especially if the vehicle is parked in the VIP area.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, he took another car home. Why?

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sounds like a fellow-traveler of Putin's from my perspective.



Dugin is known as "Putin's Rasputin" which has a nice ring to it. My very limited reading about Dugin suggests he's an arch-nationalist with a vision for a discrete Russian sense of self that is neither western nor eastern. To western readers, much of Dugin's spoutage seems ridiculous...but his rantings clearly resonate with certain elements in Russian society. 

Sadly, other nationalist leaders, including those in western democracies, seem to be using a similar playbook to Dugin/Putin. Nationalism is a very destructive ideology because it feeds on "us-vs-them" tribal instincts which inevitably drives towards smaller and smaller social and geopolitical constructs (Former Yugoslavia, anyone?).

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

More claims about provocation from Moscow, this time about RAF reconnaissance flights:









UK denies Moscow claims RAF jet entered Russian airspace


The MoD says the flight was a "routine operation" over international waters in the Arctic Circle.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The FSB is everywhere (modern day Gestapo) and a large public gathering would be under their scrutiny for any potential demonstrations, which they've taken a hard line against.
> People fooling with a vehicle in the car park would get their attention, especially if the vehicle is parked in the VIP area.
> 
> Also, as I mentioned earlier, he took another car home. Why?



Fair points. But walking by a car and stooping to attach a magnetic mine to the underside would be a pretty quick thing, probably a bit easier than staking out his residence and making sure it's in the right room, etc.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 21, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Slightly more interesting as far as this fat old tanker is concerned, there is video of a homebrewed Ukrainian tank destroyer made by putting a towed MT-12 ATG on top of an MTLB.



This reminds me of the Universal Carrier 2-pdr. If only they’d been available in Malaya in 1941.







Its contemporary operators are better fed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

There are technicals, and then there are _technicals_.


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## swampyankee (Aug 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m just wondering what wine goes best with hat.


Boone's Farm.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 21, 2022)

Ya think?









The war in Ukraine may dent the Su-35's reputation as a top-tier Russian fighter jet


The Su-35S's performance in Ukraine and in other parts of the world point to problems with the highly touted fighter jet.




www.businessinsider.com













Ukraine warns Russia's biggest arms buyers against buying weapons that do 'not survive on the battlefield'


Those considering Russian arms should learn from "Ukraine's experience in destroying these weapons in big numbers," Ukraine's foreign minister said.




www.businessinsider.com

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There are technicals, and then there are _technicals_.



And the Universal Carrier 2-pdr was neither.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And the Universal Carrier 2-pdr was neither.



Simple joke from me, nothing more.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Simple joke from me, nothing more.



And clearly a crap joke from me. 

I actually came across for-real technicals in Somalia back in 1993. There was some interesting kit driving around there.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And clearly a crap joke from me.
> 
> I actually came across for-real technicals in Somalia back in 1993. There was some interesting kit driving around there.



Crap joke, or crap reader? You make the call! Now tell us a little more about your stint in Somalia.

I've often dreamt of putting a pintle-mounted M2 .50 in the cutout for the moonroof on my truck. It's a stick-shift, wire controls onto the stick and goodbye Austin traffic!

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## buffnut453 (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've often dreamt of putting a pintle-mounted M2 .50 in the cutout for the moonroof on my truck. It's a stick-shift, wire controls onto the stick and goodbye Austin traffic!



The flaw is that, in using a 50 cal, you're likely to block the entire road with wrecked vehicles. Personally, I'd take a Sherman tank, that way you can simply drive over any stopped vehicles that get in your way. Of course, the downside is that the gas mileage sucks and it takes a LOOOONG time to get anywhere, even if there aren't traffic jams. 



Thumpalumpacus said:


> Crap joke, or crap reader? You make the call! Now tell us a little more about your stint in Somalia.



Not much to report. I was only out there a couple of months...real hardship deployment staying a 3-star hotel in Mombasa, Kenya. I'd fly up-country every other day just to gather "atmospherics" at the various landing grounds where our aircraft were delivering aid and supplies. Towards the end of my time, we did a VIP tour of Somaliland in the north where I saw an ex-British Army Bedford 4-ton truck with a Russian ZU-23/2 mounted on the flatbed. I remarked "Look, an anti-aircraft gun" but one of our Somali guides simply shook his said and said "No. Anti-troop!"

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## GrauGeist (Aug 21, 2022)

Unless your car was small enough to weave through the carnage...

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 21, 2022)

Jeez! the recoil would flip that thing right over!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The flaw is that, in using a 50 cal, you're likely to block the entire road with wrecked vehicles.



I've given that some thought. While my truck is not 4wd, it's the Desert Runner model, so it does feature high ground clearance and so long as it hasn't rained it can handle shoulders and such.








You can see a little of the moonroof I'd like to, uh, _repurpose_.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Unless your car was small enough to weave through the carnage...
> 
> View attachment 683356


It’s rare to see a BMW engine and a .50 cal machine gun in one craft. A more compact, but similar caliber mg option would have been MG 131 machine gun - Wikipedia


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## GrauGeist (Aug 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> While my truck is not 4wd, it's the Desert Runner model


It should do fine.

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## at6 (Aug 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Quite pathetic:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Made from freshly roasted goat turd.

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## J_P_C (Aug 22, 2022)

sorry to say guys - you still have to learn untill you will reach East German perfection in this matter....

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 22, 2022)

Russia blames Ukraine for nationalist's car bombing death


Russia’s top counterintelligence agency has blamed Ukrainian spy agencies have organized the killing of the daughter of a Russian nationalist ideologue




abcnews.go.com





So, the FSB knew this Ukrainian was in Moscow, monitored her movements at the event, knew she executed the attack, and then let her escape to Estonia? If all true, the FSB dropped the ball.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia blames Ukraine for nationalist's car bombing death
> 
> 
> Russia’s top counterintelligence agency has blamed Ukrainian spy agencies have organized the killing of the daughter of a Russian nationalist ideologue
> ...



Not to mention the accused bomber fled to a NATO nation. That's all very convenient. This goes back to my earlier comment on this topic....I'm very nervous about how Moscow uses this event to justify next steps. 

Oh...and a drive from Moscow to Estonia is almost 750km and takes over 9 hours. As you point out, it's nice to see the FSB is so "on the ball" with this threat that they couldn't intercept the perpetrator or prevent her crossing the border into Estonia.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

This BBC article adds another detail:









Darya Dugina: Ukraine killed Putin ally's daughter, Russia says


Vladimir Putin calls the 29-year-old's death a "vile, cruel crime" but Ukraine denies any involvement.



www.bbc.com





Apparently, the alleged perpetrator was a contractor hired by Ukrainian special services. As noted in the ABC article, she arrived in Russia in July with her daughter. Now, I'm no deep special forces operator but what sort of operative takes their daughter on a hit job? 

Also, where did this woman come from to arrive in Russia in July? Did she willingly cross the border from Ukraine? If so, I very much doubt that the Russians would have allowed her to stay in Moscow....they'd send her to more of a tree-counting location. 

The whole thing smacks of FSB cover-up. They provide enough information to allocate blame but they leave lots of questions unanswered. Moscow is shaping the narrative for its own purpose.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

First words from Alexander Dugin on the loss of his daughter. Unsurprisingly, he's trotting out the expected party-line blame game. The following is from the BBC:

_The father of Darya Dugina, Alexander Dugin, has given a statement on the death of his daughter. 

He calls her death "a terrorist act by the Ukrainian Nazi regime" and says his daughter was "brutally murdered in front of me".

"She was a beautiful Orthodox woman, patriot, war reporter, an expert for central TV and philosopher," he says.

"We only need our victory. My daughter sacrificed her young woman's life to its altar. So please, achieve it!"

Ukraine has denied involvement in Dugina's death._

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## Dimlee (Aug 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Jeez! the recoil would flip that thing right over!


I'm sure there is nose armor for a proper balance.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I'm sure there is nose armor for a proper balance.


I never thought of that.
🤔

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

Interesting update on the Darya Dugina story from the BBC, with a former Russian MP claiming it was an internal Russian group that caused the explosion:

_A top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at Russian accusations that Ukraine was responsible for the bomb that killed Darya Dugina.

Earlier, Moscow alleged that a Ukrainian national working on behalf of Kyiv's security services planted the bomb, before fleeing across the border to Estonia.

But Mykhailo Podolyak called Moscow's accusations "fictional" and accused Russia of spreading propaganda.

Kyiv has consistently denied being behind the blast and yesterday Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian MP and prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin, said that internal groups opposed to the current regime were behind the bombing.

Ponomarev claimed the bombing was the work of a group called the National Republican Army, a collection of anti-Putin activists who have allegedly staged other attacks in Russia. The BBC cannot independently verify his claims._

**

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

Here's a bit more about the National Republican Army in Russia. Rather confusingly, they use the acronym NRA which is NOT (I stress NOT) the National Rifle Association in this context:









What Is Russia's Anti-Putin 'National Republican Army'?


The NRA purportedly said that its goal is to "overthrow" and "destroy Putin," and warned Russian officials that if they do not resign, they will be "destroyed."




www.newsweek.com





Are these the opening salvoes of an internal struggle over Russia's soul? Can't help thinking that Ilya Ponomarev is linked to the (Russian) NRA and may be taking a run at being perceived as the leader of opposition to Putin. Regardless, he's definitely put his bonce in the crosshairs of the Russian state apparatus.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 22, 2022)

_"...and says his daughter was "brutally murdered in front of me"._

Please explains to us, Mr. Dugin, just how come you were not in your own car at the time of this event?

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This BBC article adds another detail:
> 
> Now, I'm no deep special forces operator but what sort of operative takes their daughter on a hit job?


Over here, our "National Take Your Daughter to Work Day" is in April.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Aug 22, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Over here, our "National Take Your Daughter to Work Day" is in April.


Not a paternal link, but this reminds me of Léon: The Professional.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It should do fine.
> 
> View attachment 683360


Typical marketing people - thinking we wouldn't notice the Landcruisers mixed in the Hilux ad. They'll lose sales.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 22, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> On the mark i think. Besides a defensive war will be more in the intrest of nato. It will bleed the russian forces more the an ukraine offensive.


Ukraine needs to seize the narrative and commence its offensive into Kherson asap.


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## Snautzer01 (Aug 22, 2022)

Disagree, blunting and make the other bleed. Push when you can and retreat. Repeat.
Like Vietnam.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 22, 2022)

Interesting piece on Russia's latest recruitment drive:









Ukraine war: Russia appeals for new recruits for war effort


Hefty rewards are offered to volunteers to sign up as the army sees significant losses in Ukraine.



www.bbc.com





The suggestion that young men are being sent to the front with no training is interesting, albeit somewhat anecdotal. I'd be more convinced if they provided dates of when he enlisted and when he was killed, even if they're approximate.

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## Dimlee (Aug 22, 2022)

One of the rare public announcements about Ukrainian KIA numbers. Probably, the first one by Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny.
_"...almost 9,000 heroes who died"_








Nearly 9,000 Ukrainian heroes killed in war with Russia – Zaluzhny


Almost 9,000 Ukrainian heroes killed in the war with Russia, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny has said.




en.interfax.com.ua

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## GrauGeist (Aug 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> One of the rare public announcements about Ukrainian KIA numbers. Probably, the first one by Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny.
> _"...almost 9,000 heroes who died"_
> 
> 
> ...

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## GTX (Aug 22, 2022)

Russia says Ukrainian regions under its control will soon vote on whether to become part of Russia


The Kremlin says it's up to residents of seized towns and cities to decide whether they formally want to live in Russia or Ukraine but some lower-level officials talk about possible dates for referendums on joining Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 22, 2022)

https://censor.net/en/news/3362271/tourists_lit_up_on_network_location_of_russian_s400_air_defense_systems_in_crimea_photos

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## vikingBerserker (Aug 22, 2022)

Seems Russian tourist and reporters are pro Ukraine


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## GTX (Aug 22, 2022)

Her father is 'Putin's brain'. Here's why everyone from Zelenskyy to Putin himself is being blamed for her murder


Just days before the six-month mark of the invasion of Ukraine, a car bomb attack in a wealthy Moscow suburb killed the daughter of one of Vladimir Putin's allies and puzzled observers. So how could it change the war?




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Aug 22, 2022)

Its worth noting that even in WW1 a bloodbath if ever there was one. British troops received more training that Russian recruits. It varied of course but there was a minimum of four months and often longer

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 22, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> One of the rare public announcements about Ukrainian KIA numbers. Probably, the first one by Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny.
> _"...almost 9,000 heroes who died"_
> 
> 
> ...


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 22, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Disagree, blunting and make the other bleed. Push when you can and retreat. Repeat.


Putin doesn't care how many of his people bleed. And maybe not this year, maybe next, IDK, but eventually the West and its taxpayers may tire of providing a seemingly endless $$$ billions for weapons and support to Ukraine if they don't see results. 

The expulsion of the Russians from northern Ukraine resulted in a huge gain in Western public support and financial aid - every one wants to back a underdog winner. But that was spring 2022, we're approaching winter now. Is Ukraine‘s best approach for the next six months to hold its lines as is, whilst lobbing strikes into Crimea, Belograd, etc? Maybe, I’m not sure.


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## Glider (Aug 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Putin doesn't care how many of his people bleed. And maybe not this year, maybe next, IDK, but eventually the West and its taxpayers may tire of providing a seemingly endless $$$ billions for weapons and support to Ukraine if they don't see results.
> 
> The expulsion of the Russians from northern Ukraine resulted in a huge gain in Western public support and financial aid - every one wants to back a underdog winner. But that was spring 2022, we're approaching winter now. Is Ukraine‘s best approach for the next six months to hold its lines as is, whilst lobbing strikes into Crimea, Belograd, etc? Maybe, I’m not sure.


To a certain level I disagree with _Putin doesn't care how many of his people die_. You are right but he does care about who dies. He has gone to a lot of trouble to ensure that the people who live in the major cities do not get sucked into the fighting. Nearly all the recruiting is being done in the more distant, poorer regions of Russia, where education and communications are less and life is more traditional.
Those areas seem to be becoming less fruitful for recruits. I suspect that if he has to go to the major cities then he will be in trouble

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> To a certain level I disagree with _Putin doesn't care how many of his people die_. You are right but he does care about who dies. He has gone to a lot of trouble to ensure that the people who live in the major cities do not get sucked into the fighting. Nearly all the recruiting is being done in the more distant, poorer regions of Russia, where education and communications are less and life is more traditional.
> Those areas seem to be becoming less fruitful for recruits. I suspect that if he has to go to the major cities then he will be in trouble



There's very much a political calculus involved in Putin's prosecution of this invasion, not just concerning internal Russian affairs, but you're right that that is a big concern in the Kremlin.

Another thing is not about where you find the lads doing the dying, but also how you replace them with troops trained to the same level. One of the deep military effects of high casualties is the killing/disabling of potential trainers who can train them, and shepherd them through their first engagements.

I am assuming the Russians sent what they thought were their best units in on this. Those are now largely shattered, from my reading. The tranches coming in going forward will not get the benefit of their experience passed on either in schools or OJT. The Japanese naval air corps got a *whiff* of this problem by 1944, too.

Many of the experienced Russians are _hors de combat_, and while those who survived may be able to relay unpleasant truths into a system that discourages that sort of bluntness, the KIAs took their experience with them and that cannot be passed along.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 22, 2022)

Another practice of the Russian Army, is to isolate the troops/casualties coming back from the front lines from their replacements.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> Those areas seem to be becoming less fruitful for recruits. I suspect that if he has to go to the major cities then he will be in trouble


Good point. As for recruiting, how big is the Ukrainian army now? They’ve got tens of thousands of small arms, body armour, etc. flooding in. At what point will Ukraine’s army have the one million NATO-armed men that Mikhail Khodaryonok predicted. Wikipedia currently shows the Ukrainian ground forces at under 128,000 troops.

How this guys gets to keep talking, IDK. Here’s Khodaryonok slamming Russia’s inability to mobilize quickly and its poor equipment, along with praising NATO’s kit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Another practice of the Russian Army, is to isolate the troops/casualties coming back from the front lines from their replacements.



Shades of the Japanese reaction to Midway. Is there an article I can read?


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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How this guys gets to keep talking, IDK. Here’s Khodaryonok slamming Russia’s inability to mobilize quickly and its poor equipment, along with praising NATO’s kit.


Maybe someone in the hierarchy recognizes the wisdom of keeping a thorn in the side around to keep them on their toes and give them a perspective from beyond their information silo. "Inconvenient Truths" Department.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 23, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Maybe someone in the hierarchy recognizes the wisdom of keeping a thorn in the side around to keep them on their toes and give them a perspective from beyond their information silo. "Inconvenient Truths" Department.


Maybe. If he can speak English, when this is over and Putin is gone, Khodaryonok will be a welcome commentator on Western media and speaker at NATO military academies.

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## Dimlee (Aug 23, 2022)

Once again about that attack on Novofedorivka (Saki) airbase.
The plot thickens... 🤔








Why Ukraine probably has long-range missiles


If it was a Ukrainian missile that struck Crimea, what kind was it? The question has preoccupied open-source intelligence sleuths and weapons experts for two weeks.




news.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 23, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Once again about that attack on Novofedorivka (Saki) airbase. The plot thickens... 🤔


Good on the US and Romania for finding a way to get ATACMS to Ukraine.








Is the U.S. giving Ukraine some weapons secretly?


Ukraine doesn’t have any missiles with the range to strike Saki air base in Crimea — at least not with the missiles America and its partners publicly say they transferred.




www.politico.com





Or was it something else?









Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?


A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.




www.thedrive.com





I can't wait to see the first Abrams or Leo2 MBTs and the first F-16s in Ukrainian colours. What about the BAE BvS 10 'Viking' for traversing the coming autumn mud?

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 23, 2022)

I wholly agree with General Rick Hillier (retired), Canada's Chief of the Defense Staff from 2005 to 2008. We have Leo2 tanks that could easily be donated.









No Nonsense With Pamela Wallin - Ukrainian World Congress







www.ukrainianworldcongress.org





_"Canada and our government and our nation should take a whole bunch of our fighting vehicles from the army, 200, 250 of those LAV threes or LAV sixes, that we have excellent fighting vehicles. Combine that with, say, 50 of our Leopard two main battle tanks, among the best battle tanks in the world, with reconnaissance vehicles and engineer vehicles, put together a spare parts package and an ammunition package and give that to Ukraine so they can actually start to build a large reserve counter attack force. And then at the same time. What I would suggest we would do is challenge General Dynamics Land Systems, that center of vehicle manufacturing excellence for fighting vehicles. Challenge them to replace those vehicles within the next one to two years with even better vehicles. And so improve the Canadian forces while we're helping Ukraine in a very real way."_

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## GTX (Aug 23, 2022)

Is the U.S. giving Ukraine some weapons secretly?


Ukraine doesn’t have any missiles with the range to strike Saki air base in Crimea — at least not with the missiles America and its partners publicly say they transferred.




www.politico.com


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## GTX (Aug 23, 2022)

The last time the ABC spoke to Taras, he was an IT manager. Now he's a soldier fighting in hell on Earth


On February 24, Ukrainians awoke to find their nation at war with Russia. Six months on and millions have fled their homes while others have taken up the fight at home. Those who have survived say they are determined to make sure their pain and suffering is not for nothing.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 23, 2022)

Russian paratrooper condemns his country's war in Ukraine, telling CNN it is built on a 'lie'


The Kremlin's justification for invading Ukraine "is a lie," a Russian paratrooper who previously publicly condemned his country's war in Ukraine has told CNN.




amp.cnn.com

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## GTX (Aug 23, 2022)

'5,000 DOLPHINS have died due to Russia's invasion', experts say


WARNING: Graphic content. A Ukrainian biologist has raised the alarm over the Black Sea dolphin population, which he says is being harmed out by Russian vessels and their use of sonar.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Glider (Aug 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good point. As for recruiting, how big is the Ukrainian army now? They’ve got tens of thousands of small arms, body armour, etc. flooding in. At what point will Ukraine’s army have the one million NATO-armed men that Mikhail Khodaryonok predicted. Wikipedia currently shows the Ukrainian ground forces at under 128,000 troops.
> 
> How this guys gets to keep talking, IDK. Here’s Khodaryonok slamming Russia’s inability to mobilize quickly and its poor equipment, along with praising NATO’s kit.



What I found interesting is that 
a) no one interrupted him
b) They were all nodding their heads in agreement

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## GrauGeist (Aug 23, 2022)

I'm willing to bet that Khodaryonok's making so much noise in the public's eye, that it's somewhat protecting him from an "accident".

For now, at least.


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## Glider (Aug 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm willing to bet that Khodaryonok's making so much noise in the public's eye, that it's somewhat protecting him from an "accident".
> 
> For now, at least.


Ukraine worst nightmare would be someone putting him in charge. He does seem to talk a lot of sense.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> Ukraine worst nightmare would be someone putting him in charge. He does seem to talk a lot of sense.


Khodaryonok does a lot of after the fact, Monday morning QB. But he doesn’t say what Russia needs or needed to do to win.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 23, 2022)

Ok...I find this interesting. Photographs were taken at Darya Dugina's funeral. Her body seems remarkably undamaged for someone killed by a fiery car bomb:







And, just for the record, here's an image of the burning wreck of her Toyota Landcruiser:







Now...I've seen some freaky situations where people emerged relatively unscathed from horrific accidents. However, this one just seems a couple of stretches too far. The only explanation I can come up with is that the explosion threw Darya from the car...but I'd still expect facial damage (unless Russian undertakers are way, WAY better than those in other countries).

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 23, 2022)

Perhaps she's an incorruptible. 
Now she will be venerated as martyr.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 23, 2022)

Colonel Mustard, in the courtyard, with the pipe-bomb.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Colonel Mustard, in the courtyard, with the pipe-bomb.


We have a Winner!

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## GrauGeist (Aug 23, 2022)

I thought this was an interesting read on the Dugina car bombing.









Questions Surround the Death of Daria Dugina


We should be wary of being drawn into stories of plots within plots and other intrigue.




thedispatch.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Aug 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I thought this was an interesting read on the Dugina car bombing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"If you go chasing rabbits, and you know you're going to fall,
Tell 'em a hookah-smoking caterpillar, has given you the call..."

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 24, 2022)

The Nazi-like insignia with its wolfsangel design is unfortunate from a global PR perspective.



This man gives a better message to the world. The parade of wrecked Russian tanks at 6:15 is perfect. This man knows how to reach the hearts, minds and wallets of the world.

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## at6 (Aug 24, 2022)

He said everything so very well. Zelensky is what a real leader looks and sounds like.

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## GTX (Aug 24, 2022)

Biden pivots to long-term strategy in Ukraine with nearly $US3 billion military aid package


As the war in Ukraine drags on, US security assistance is shifting to a longer-term campaign that also will likely keep more American military troops in Europe into the future, US officials said.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 24, 2022)

New Zealand soldier killed in Ukraine while on leave from defence force


The soldier was on leave without pay and was not on active duty at the time of their death.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Aug 24, 2022)

Russian politician reportedly detained for 'discrediting' army


A former mayor who has been critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reportedly been detained.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 24, 2022)

These 3D models take you inside the ruins of Ukraine's cultural treasures


Using laser scanners and drones, a team of volunteers travelled across Ukraine documenting the destruction of cultural sites. This is the data they collected.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Aug 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Nazi-like insignia with its wolfsangel design is unfortunate from a global PR perspective.


Azov's members explained many times how this insignia was designed. Characters I and N, Idea of the Nation.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 24, 2022)

Going back to the death of Darya Dugina, the FSB released photos of an Azov Battalion ID card that the alleged perpetrator of the bombing (who escaped to Estonia, remember) left behind. Again...she's so clumsy (a) that she takes her ID card on a wet ops mission, and (b) leaves it behind?

Regardless, the photo experts are having some fun with the apparent Photoshop edits made to the "ID card", highlighting the almost certainty that it's a complete fake. Seems the morticians are better at repairing Darya's face than the FSB is at faking ID cards:

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## GrauGeist (Aug 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Azov's members explained many times how this insignia was designed. Characters I and N, Idea of the Nation.


And there's well over a dozen municipalities in Europe (mostly Germany) that actually has the original insignia incorporated within their coat of arms.

Not a single objection has been heard since most of these were created around the 16th century or so.

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## at6 (Aug 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> New Zealand soldier killed in Ukraine while on leave from defence force
> 
> 
> The soldier was on leave without pay and was not on active duty at the time of their death.
> ...


A very brave man indeed. Whether he was there as a combatant or not doesn't diminish the loss.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Going back to the death of Darya Dugina, the FSB released photos of an Azov Battalion ID card that the alleged perpetrator of the bombing (who escaped to Estonia, remember) left behind. Again...she's so clumsy (a) that she takes her ID card on a wet ops mission, and (b) leaves it behind?
> 
> Regardless, the photo experts are having some fun with the apparent Photoshop edits made to the "ID card", highlighting the almost certainty that it's a complete fake. Seems the morticians are better at repairing Darya's face than the FSB is at faking ID cards:



She dropped it after using it to jimmy the door of the car. 🤥🤥🤥

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not a single objection has been heard since most of these were created around the 16th century or so.


Same as Finland’s Swastika national marking on their Air Force during WW2. But there is perception, and sometimes that is stronger than the intention or reality. If it were me, I’d change my insignia. At the end of the day, it’s the flag, not your unit mark that you‘re fighting under.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 24, 2022)

at6 said:


> A very brave man indeed. Whether he was there as a combatant or not doesn't diminish the loss.


Likely the first Kiwi to die fighting in the region since the siege of Sevastopol of 1855.






New Zealand Crimean War Veterans







crimeanwarveterans.blogspot.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Same as Finland’s Swastika national marking on their Air Force during WW2. But there is perception, and sometimes that is stronger than the intention or reality. If it were me, I’d change my insignia. At the end of the day, it’s the flag, not your unit mark that you‘re fighting under.


Actually, Finland's national insignia as well as Latvia's, were in use long before the National Socialists adopted the symbol.

Virtually every military unit on earth has an icon or insignia that disguinshes them from other units - it's an ancient tradition.

The Azov batallion's insignia is literally backwards from the "Wolfsangel" or stylized SS insignia.

It is a stylized "i" and "n" and in the same grain, if we take the international harvester logo, hold it up at a certain angle and squint real hard, it may also look sort of kind of like something the SS might have used at some point.

I beleive the Azov unit's actions speak louder than the hype surrounding their emblem.

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## gumbyk (Aug 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Same as Finland’s Swastika national marking on their Air Force during WW2. But there is perception, and sometimes that is stronger than the intention or reality. If it were me, I’d change my insignia. At the end of the day, it’s the flag, not your unit mark that you‘re fighting under.


So, you'd give up something dear to you, simply because someone else desecrated something that looks similar?

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Actually, Finland's national insignia as well as Latvia's, were in use long before the National Socialists adopted the symbol.


But yet they changed it due to its unintended associations. Finland had every right to tell everyone to sod off, we had the symbol first. But the Finns likely said, it’s just a symbol, let’s go with something else.


gumbyk said:


> So, you'd give up something dear to you, simply because someone else desecrated something that looks similar?


IDK, there’s no insignia that’s dear to me. But I’m a civilian. I’m not suggesting they change the national flag, but that the insignia could needlessly muddy foreign opinion. It‘s not the main point of my post though, I don’t feel strongly either way, so I wouldn’t waste too much bandwidth on this.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But yet they changed it due to its unintended associations. Finland had every right to tell everyone to sod off, we had the symbol first. But the Finns likely said, it’s just a symbol, let’s go with something else.


They dropped the swastika from their aircraft national insignia in 1945, but it wasn't until 2020 that they removed the swastika from their unit command insignias, patches, air medals and flags.

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## Snautzer01 (Aug 25, 2022)

Realley?? You cant buy a plastic plane model with a swas on it in Germany but untill 2020 it was cool for the things you say.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 25, 2022)

This is an interesting bit.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 25, 2022)

Another very interesting article: 









Americans Support Ukraine "As Long As It Takes"


Survey results show the public remains supportive of US assistance to Ukraine—even if it means paying higher gas and food prices at home.




www.thechicagocouncil.org

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 25, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Another very interesting article...


That's reassuring, but I believe Ukraine needs to use its NATO-supplied kit to move from defence to offense soon, making notable territorial gains before winter. 









Six months of war: Ukraine regains initiative, but makes no push


Western allies provided Ukraine enough assistance to deprive Russia of victory but not to defeat it, analysts say.




www.aljazeera.com





Kherson by Christmas would show the world that Ukraine is unstoppable.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 25, 2022)

Turkey's playing Russia's game of using its expats and ethnic cousins to drive policy.









Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement of international law: Turkish president


Ensuring safety, well-being of Crimean Tatars among Türkiye's priorities, Recep Tayyip Erdogan says - Anadolu Agency




www.aa.com.tr





_"Türkiye does not recognize the annexation of Crimea - this step is illegitimate and illegal. Ensuring the safety and well-being of our Crimean Tatar compatriots is also among Türkiye's priorities"_

Now, at tomorrow's meeting settle matters with Finland and Sweden and approve them for NATO membership next week. 









Swedish FM confirms NATO talks with Finland, Turkey on Friday


Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde has confirmed that envoys from Finland, Sweden and Turkey are due to meet for talks on Friday over the two Nordic nations joining the NATO




www.business-standard.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 25, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Realley?? You cant buy a plastic plane model with a swas on it in Germany but untill 2020 it was cool for the things you say.











Finland's air force quietly drops swastika symbol


The force, which has been using a swastika in its emblem since 1918, said it had caused misunderstandings.



www.bbc.com

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## Dimlee (Aug 25, 2022)

Spain has delivered lethal equipment to Ukraine for the first time. Including the anti-aircraft battery (type unknown yet). Earlier, Spanish assistance was limited to ammunition and auxiliary equipment.
Muchas gracias!









Defensa refuerza la ayuda militar a Ucrania con más armamento y vehículos blindados


El anuncio coincide con las quejas del embajador ucranio por la escasez en el envío de material defensivo al país, que este miércoles celebra el Día de la Independencia




elpais-com.translate.goog

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 25, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Spain has delivered lethal equipment to Ukraine for the first time. Including the anti-aircraft battery (type unknown yet). Earlier, Spanish assistance was limited to ammunition and auxiliary equipment.
> Muchas gracias!
> 
> 
> ...


Well done Spain. I was disappointed to read that Spain’s Leopard 2 MBTs we’re in such disrepair as to be impossible to donate.









Spain Withdraws Offer to Send Leopard Tanks to Ukraine


Spain has canceled a plan to send its German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine to help defend against the ongoing Russian invasion.




www.thedefensepost.com


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well done Spain. I was disappointed to read that Spain’s Leopard 2 MBTs we’re in such disrepair as to be impossible to donate.


That was the oficial reason but also the transfer need aproval from Germany and wasn't granted. Even if they were in very bad shape they could be useful as a source of spare parts if other Leo 2 were coming... but that is not the case. German chancellor knows why.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Kherson by Christmas would show the world that Ukraine is unstoppable.



I believe Kherson will be recaptured in your timeline. The Russians have three main impediments:

1) Logistics: the bridges supplying the Russians in the area are broken or being broken, and the warehouses and ammo dumps have been and are being targeted specifically. They will have less to eat, and less to fight with, and it will be harder to get those supplies to the front.

2) Manpower: similar to above, feeding reinforcements into the battle will be difficult, and further, Russia will most likely be borrowing them from the Donbas front. Moving them from the Donbas will be circuitous, eat up still further supplies, and be subject to long-range strikes in which the Ukrainians have shown capability. This will also weaken the one front where they've gained undeniable success -- will they be willing to risk that by weakening those forces?

And the quality of those troops may well be open to question, after what we've seen in the last six months.

3) The inability of the Black Sea fleet to provide support given its vulnerability to Ukrainian missiles means that those Russian troops in the area will be relying on organic artillery and aviation for fire-support. The Russian air force seems pretty cautious about hazarding its planes and pilots right now, but that can change. Of course, they may decide to risk the BS fleet anyway (golly, I love that abbreviation!) but will likely suffer further casualties in so doing.

***

In total, it seems to me that the Russians will be forced into a more static situation, while the Ukrainians will be able to exploit the dynamics of interior lines better in order to apply more force at the _schwerpunkt_.

That's just my reading of the situation, supported by the articles I've been reading. I may be optimistic, too. But I don't think my optimism is unjustified, for the above reasons.

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## GTX (Aug 25, 2022)

Putin to boost Russian armed forces size to over 2 million as war rages on


Russian President Vladimir Putin signs a decree to increase the size of Russia's armed forces from 1.9 million to 2.04 million as the war in Ukraine enters its seventh month.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin to boost Russian armed forces size to over 2 million as war rages on
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin signs a decree to increase the size of Russia's armed forces from 1.9 million to 2.04 million as the war in Ukraine enters its seventh month.
> ...



He's still avoiding broader conscription, it seems.


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## GTX (Aug 25, 2022)

Ukraine's Independence Day celebrated around the world


Celebrations for Ukraine's August 24 Independence Day public holiday were cancelled in the country, but many Ukrainians marked the occasion by wearing embroidered shirts, typical of the national dress.




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Aug 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He's still avoiding broader conscription, it seems.


True. However if he is finding it almost impossible to fill the gaps he already has, he might as well sign a mandate to increase the size of the Army to 3 or 5 million. It will not happen unless there is general mobilisation. Plus of course what are they going to be armed with, if the Russian forces are already having to use T62's, dig out the T55's?

It looks to me as if its little more than PR as the Ukraine have said that they can have 1 million under arms in I think nine months

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 25, 2022)

Glider said:


> It looks to me as if its little more than PR as the Ukraine have said that they can have 1 million under arms in I think nine months



Right, though I have to say I'm a little skeptical of Ukrainian goals in this regard. They may well be able to do that, but that's something relying upon raw money -- you have to pay your troops, right? That's nothing that international aid can solve outside of simple donations of funds. A million men under arms, making (numbers hypothetical) $2000/month on average, is $2 billion/month. Do the Ukrainians have that in the war chest? I know the UK has ceded simple financial grants to this end, but can the Ukrainians pay that force, and for how long?

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## Glider (Aug 25, 2022)

There was an interesting debate on the radio a fewf days ago. The general conclusion was that 1 million would be possible, but it would take a lot longer than the Ukraine believed but 750,000 was possible. Which I thought would be a pretty good result.
It did depend on supplies from allies and more rationalisation, as the logistical challenge of keeping all the different types going will at some point, become insurmountable.

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## special ed (Aug 25, 2022)

I just heard an interview on radio of a candidate for house or senate from Arizona, I think it was. I began to listen better when the interviewer asked about seal training twice. The candidate said although he survived hell week his instructors said he wasn't ready because of his lack of support for fellow trainees and seemed to be more concerned with his own graduation. He was told to gain maturity and try next year. He tried two years later and graduated. When asked about Ukraine, he said we should be using our money to secure our own border rather than Ukraine's. In my opinion, he still lacks the maturity to be a member of the team.

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## Denniss (Aug 25, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Realley?? You cant buy a plastic plane model with a swas on it in Germany but untill 2020 it was cool for the things you say.


Finns did not use the same swastika as the germans in WW2 so it's not forbidden here, just the Nazi swastika

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## Dimlee (Aug 25, 2022)

I love this island. Would like to see a Ukrainian economical-cultural mission in Taipei in the future. Headed by a retired general.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 25, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Finns did not use the same swastika as the germans in WW2 so it's not forbidden here, just the Nazi swastika


By coincidence, the pre-war Latvian insignia was up-ended the same as the Nazi insignia, although I suspect it would be legal in Germany (as shown on a Latvian Gloster Gladiator, for example) due to context.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 25, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That was the oficial reason but also the transfer need aproval from Germany and wasn't granted.


What’s with the Germans? If asked I’m sure Canada would donate fifty Leo2s, but only with Germans support.









Germany Prevents Spain From Sending Tanks to Ukraine


The US and Germany would have to give their thumbs up to the deal before the armor was shipped.




sofrep.com





_“According to Der Spiegel, __"The Scholz government warned Spain that it would constitute a departure from an alleged informal decision by the West not to provide Western tanks to Ukraine." _


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## swampyankee (Aug 25, 2022)

special ed said:


> I just heard an interview on radio of a candidate for house or senate from Arizona, I think it was. I began to listen better when the interviewer asked about seal training twice. The candidate said although he survived hell week his instructors said he wasn't ready because of his lack of support for fellow trainees and seemed to be more concerned with his own graduation. He was told to gain maturity and try next year. He tried two years later and graduated. When asked about Ukraine, he said we should be using our money to secure our own border rather than Ukraine's. In my opinion, he still lacks the maturity to be a member of the team.


Let me guess: he uses the word "libtard" in conversation.

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## GTX (Aug 26, 2022)

Ukraine to get 300 DefendTex ‘kamikaze’ drones - video - Australian Manufacturing Forum


Defence think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has revealed that Ukraine is to purchase 300 Australian-made DefendTex Drone40s – a system not yet procured in quantity by Australia’s defence forces. ASPI reported a podcast with Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia, Vasyl...




www.aumanufacturing.com.au

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## GTX (Aug 26, 2022)

Putin rocked as '200 Russian paratroopers killed' in strike on base


UKRAINE has struck a Russian base, killing up to 200 paratroopers, according to reports.




www.express.co.uk

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## GTX (Aug 26, 2022)

Ambassador says Australian equipment can give Ukrainian troops the edge they need | The Strategist


Ukraine is seeking out innovative weapons and other military equipment developed by Australian companies to give its troops a technological edge in their war against Russia. In an interview for ASPI’s podcast, Ukraine’s ambassador to ...




www.aspistrategist.org.au

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## GTX (Aug 26, 2022)

‘Vampire’ to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers


The L3Harris-made Vampire will be included in the nearly $3 billion in aid announced Wednesday.




www.defensenews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> ‘Vampire’ to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers
> 
> 
> The L3Harris-made Vampire will be included in the nearly $3 billion in aid announced Wednesday.
> ...


Now's there's your technicals!


Thumpalumpacus said:


> There are technicals, and then there are _technicals_.


And so are these....








Ukrainian Missile Teams Are Using Old School Motorcycles With Sidecars


Mobile strike teams have emerged in Ukraine equipped with Soviet-era motorcycles with anti-tank missile launchers in their sidecars.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 26, 2022)

The funny thing is that many of us Americans who pay any attention to this stuff tend to think of a technical as an African or Middle-Eastern invention, when it actually goes back further. Katyushas in WWII, most scout cars in WWI, they fit the bill too, of _strapping something deadly onto something mobile._

Hell, the very first fighter planes too were essentially technicals.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 26, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Aug 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The bridge being constantly repaired is also consuming manpower that is much needed elsewhere.


Bridges are playing a major role.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 26, 2022)

Bwa-ha-ha!!!

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## wlewisiii (Aug 27, 2022)

Why yes, I find this one funny too...

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 27, 2022)

Ready or not, I’d say Ukraine will be on the offensive in Sept.

Ukraine Weighs a Risky Offensive to Break Out of a Stalemate

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## GTX (Aug 27, 2022)

Ukraine exports 1 million tonnes of grain under new deal


President Zelenskyy says Ukraine has so far exported 1 million tonnes of agricultural products from its Black Sea ports under the terms of a grain deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 27, 2022)

The fight to save premature babies on Ukraine's front line


Even when the air-raid sirens sound, the babies in Ukraine's Pokrovsk Perinatal Hospital above-ground incubation ward cannot be disconnected from their life-saving machines.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 27, 2022)

UK donating undersea minehunter drones to help Ukraine clear coastline


Dozens of Ukrainian personnel will be taught to use the autonomous minehunting vehicles by the Royal Navy and our US partners over the coming months




www.gov.uk

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## GTX (Aug 27, 2022)




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## GTX (Aug 27, 2022)

Did a Ukrainian spy posing as a young mum really sneak into Russia to murder a Putin ally?


Since Vladimir Putin first came to power, many of his critics and supporters have died in strange and violent circumstances. But the fiery death of Darya Dugina is different.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 28, 2022)

Rusia in need to bring back S-300 SAM batteries from Siria:









Russia Pulls Its 'Syrian' S-300 Missile Battery, Ships It To Black Sea


Russia 'gifted' Syria the S-300 after a friendly fire incident, but it remained in Russia control and now it's heading towards Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## Denniss (Aug 28, 2022)

let's see if Turkey permits the ships passage now-knowing of its military load.
do the Ukrainians have antiship missiles or armed drones that may reach up to the international waters just outside of Turkish zone?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 28, 2022)

Denniss said:


> let's see if Turkey permits the ships passage now-knowing of its military load.
> do the Ukrainians have antiship missiles or armed drones that may reach up to the international waters just outside of Turkish zone?


The ship is already passed and is near the russian coast of the Black Sea. It was loaded in a civilian cargo vessel known for ferrying military hardware for Rusia.

AFAIK, the bann is for militar ships, not for civil ships carrying military equipment, so...

I doubt that Ukrainia can do anything about that but an audacious strike can't be ruled out at all.

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## Dimlee (Aug 28, 2022)

"The Pentagon has expanded its use of maritime shipping to deliver weapons for the war in Ukraine...".



https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/27/ukraine-weapons-shipping-sea/

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## Dimlee (Aug 28, 2022)

Good German. Danke, Frau Baerbock!
"Für mich ist klar: Die Ukraine verteidigt auch unsere Freiheit, unsere Friedensordnung und wir unterstützen sie finanziell und militärisch – und zwar solange es nötig ist. Punkt."








Außenministerin Baerbock im großen BamS-Interview: „Putins Wahnvorstellung ist nicht aufgegangen“


Seit dem russischen Überfall auf die Ukraine führt Annalena Baerbock ein Leben im Dauer-Ausnahmezustand und jettet als Krisendiplomatin um die Welt.




www.bild.de

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 28, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "The Pentagon has expanded its use of maritime shipping to deliver weapons for the war in Ukraine...".
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/27/ukraine-weapons-shipping-sea/


More quantity and bigger items on the way, seems.

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## Glider (Aug 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Rusia in need to bring back S-300 SAM batteries from Siria:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I admit that its difficult to see this as anything but a sure sign of Russia's weakness'. The S300 is till a noteworthy piece of kit, but it has some well known failings, and to take it away from an ally shows that they have nothing better available and the bottom of the barrel is being reached.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> AFAIK, the bann is for militar ships, not for civil ships carrying military equipment, so...


Well then, that’s how the Ukraine navy can get its SSKs. There must be some ex-Soviet submariners in Ukraine who can operate an older surplus SSK. Can anyone spare a Kilo?







Plus LCS and fast attack missile boats.






And tanks…






Come on Turkey, you’re part of NATO. If Ukraine falls you might very well be next on Russia’s menu.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Aug 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The ship is already passed and is near the russian coast of the Black Sea. It was loaded in a civilian cargo vessel known for ferrying military hardware for Rusia.
> 
> AFAIK, the bann is for militar ships, not for civil ships carrying military equipment, so...
> 
> I doubt that Ukrainia can do anything about that but an audacious strike can't be ruled out at all.



But a civilian ship carrying war materials becomes a legit target, shouldn’t it?

Lusitania anyone?

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## GrauGeist (Aug 28, 2022)

I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.

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## wlewisiii (Aug 28, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Aug 28, 2022)

At least it got a direct hit on something

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.



Does Russia have the airlift capability for that to be a possibility?


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## SaparotRob (Aug 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



I wonder if Russia has any of those those missiles for sale.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wonder if Russia has any of those those missiles for sale.


According to the comments this is a missile failure incident from the last decade, nowhere in Russia or Ukraine.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 28, 2022)

Killjoy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 28, 2022)

I heard that was their new pad-to-pad variant, for extremely close-in work.

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## Dimlee (Aug 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.


The inspection regime applies only to the vessels involved in the "grain deal".

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 28, 2022)

What do we predict will be the first NATO or Western designed *manned* military aircraft supplied post invasion to be operated by the UAF? As I understand it, Ukraine hasn’t received a single fixed wing or rotary aircraft, combat, transport or civilian from any NATO or Western countries since the invasion.









Ukrainian Air Force - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





This link shows one aircraft from a now NATO member, the Aero L-39 Albatros. I assume these were provided to Ukraine before the Feb invasion.






That’s it, not a single Western-designed aircraft of any sort yet provided.

In my search I had a look at Ukraine’s civil airlines. This appeal from one to the West caught my eye, Flight booking, cheap airline tickets, cheap air flights - SkyUp Airlines.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 28, 2022)

It's about context. The more capable the airframe, the longer the training time, generally. The West thought Ukraine would lose quickly, and so offers of help in aviation were not made, and the Polish thing got stymied early on too. I think they thought at this point that training Ukrainians to fly F-16s or Eurofighters did not have a realistic timeline.

Fast-forward a few months and we see the resistance holding, maybe now there's time to both train the pilots and refurb the donated aircraft.

In short, I think there's a little bit of hindsightium involved here. I sure didn't think Ukraine would last more than a week. But that was before we got this glimpse into the true status of the Russian military, If we'd known the Ukrainians would hold solid north of Kyev, an early training/supply program for the F-16 _could_ have happened ... but of course we couldn't know that at that time.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 28, 2022)

Remember, the first Western aid offered was to fly Zelensky to the country of exile of his choice.
It took the resolve of a comedian to shame the West into doing the right thing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Remember, the first Western aid offered was to fly Zelensky to the country of exile of his choice.
> It took the resolve of a comedian to shame the West into doing the right thing.



Right, the lack of faith was clear. As the whole shebang kicked off I too figured there'd be no time for anything, so I'm not trying to launch jabs or anything; I was equally wrong.


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## Greg Boeser (Aug 28, 2022)

Well, we were all still processing the humiliating rout in Afganistan.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 28, 2022)

A propos of not very much...but Dear Old Blighty reported that it imported zero, repeat zero, fuel of any kind from Russia during the month of June. It's the first time this has ever happened.

Now, one swallow doesn't make a summer etc etc...and it must also be noted that the UK is far less dependent on Russian oil and gas than other nations in Europe. However, it's a clear step in the right direction. 









Ukraine war: UK imports no fuel from Russia for first time on record


Imports of goods from Russia fell to £33m in June, the lowest level since 1997, official figures show.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What do we predict will be the first NATO or Western designed *manned* military aircraft supplied post invasion to be operated by the UAF?


F-16s

I posted a link upthread around last Thursday about the UAF being in discussion with Lockheed Martin this time last year about procuring F-16s.

It seems to me that the Russian invasion has accelerated things.


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## SaparotRob (Aug 29, 2022)

The Grippen seems like a good candidate for Ukraine. I doubt there are quite as many available as F-16s. I wonder if we should send a few, not necessarily airworthy, F-16s just to have ground crews able to familiarize themselves with it.


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## J_P_C (Aug 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's about context. The more capable the airframe, the longer the training time, generally. The West thought Ukraine would lose quickly, and so offers of help in aviation were not made, and the Polish thing got stymied early on too. I think they thought at this point that training Ukrainians to fly F-16s or Eurofighters did not have a realistic timeline.
> 
> Fast-forward a few months and we see the resistance holding, maybe now there's time to both train the pilots and refurb the donated aircraft.
> 
> In short, I think there's a little bit of hindsightium involved here. I sure didn't think Ukraine would last more than a week. But that was before we got this glimpse into the true status of the Russian military, If we'd known the Ukrainians would hold solid north of Kyev, an early training/supply program for the F-16 _could_ have happened ... but of course we couldn't know that at that time.


well just consider two facts like this - surprise HARM missile use by Ukrainians and that polish MiG-29s have been equipped with Israeli made mission computer as well MiLStd 1553B data bus wired hardpoints....

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> F-16s


I’m not so sure. We’ve already discussed how by mid-July the US had made no decision to supply F-16. Assuming a decision to go ahead on F-16s was finally made by late July or early August, the consensus here is that training plus logistics, parts and maintenance would take many months. As such the F-16 won’t be in UAF service until we’ll into spring/summer 2023.

As such, I suggest the first manned Western-designed aircraft to enter UAF service are likely to be something simpler; perhaps LCAs (though IDK if training would be any faster than on the F-16), or utility helicopters and transports.


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## J_P_C (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m not so sure. We’ve already discussed how by mid-July the US had made no decision to supply F-16. Assuming a decision to go ahead on F-16s was finally made by late July or early August, the consensus here is that training plus logistics, parts and maintenance would take many months. As such the F-16 won’t be in UAF service until we’ll into spring/summer 2023.
> 
> As such, I suggest the first manned Western-designed aircraft to enter UAF service are likely to be something simpler; perhaps LCAs, utility helicopters or transports.


i would say your proposal is controversional at least - you really would like to put Ukrainian pilots in LCA and send them in combat against VKS? over territorry densly occupied with all kinds of air defence? and what is the point sending them transport airplanes? you may not train pilots and maintainers with western made utility helicopters and then convert them in one simple move to F-16 riders - it does not working this way. Air Force it is pure logistic/ technology game - as you said, fighting pilot it is very important but just one of many components of this puzzle. Truly said im less worried how fast pilots adjust to western combat airplanes - i'm sure Ukrainians will send battle hardened guys for training and simulators perfectly speed up this process but maitenance staff is different story - to be generally profficient on this field 6 month of time is minimum and previous experience will help you just little.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> i would say your proposal is controversional at least - you really would like to put Ukrainian pilots in LCA and send them in combat against VKS?


I propose nothing. Instead I predict that we'll see other Western-designed aircraft enter UAF service before the F-16. I don't know if and do not propose that Ukraine fly its existing Albatros or other LCAs against the Russians; but it wouldn't surprise me, as you use what you've got. I also did not suggest converting rotary pilots into F-16 pilots, but only that Western-designed helicopters are more likely to arrive into UAF service earlier than the F-16.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

Notwithstanding the incredible risks of taking it into combat, the Albatros does look good in UAF colours.

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## J_P_C (Aug 29, 2022)

look at the fresh news from Kherson region - ZSU anounced break through russian defence line

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Notwithstanding the incredible risks of taking it into combat, the Albatros does look good in UAF colours.



I've worked on these - unless they are "ZA" models, the trainer versions have to be modified to carry weapons, not impossible but another issue. Additionally the trainer versions are not as robust as the ZA and may have structural issues with stores and heavy useage. 

I'd bet most of not all of the UAF pilots received their training in the L39

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## Dimlee (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What do we predict will be the first NATO or Western designed *manned* military aircraft supplied post invasion to be operated by the UAF? As I understand it, Ukraine hasn’t received a single fixed wing or rotary aircraft, combat, transport or civilian from any NATO or Western countries since the invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Rumour intelligence " says that Ukrainian Air Force preferences today are either F-16 or Grippen. F-16 gets slightly more votes. Pros and cons are being discussed continuously. There is a growing "pro US lobby" whose main argument is that only USA industry can be a reliable supplier of the whole systems (and not just airborne) with training, spares, upgrades, etc - long term.

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## J_P_C (Aug 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "Rumour intelligence " says that Ukrainian Air Force preferences today are either F-16 or Grippen. F-16 gets slightly more votes. Pros and cons are being discussed continuously. There is a growing "pro US lobby" whose main argument is that only USA industry can be a reliable supplier of the whole systems (and not just airborne) with training, spares, upgrades, etc - long term.


we had the same discussion in Poland 10 years ago - but finally it comes to the point that US is making decision - Grippen is made with serious share US origin parts - if uncle Sam is interested in the deal Grippen is on loosing position - in one company i use to worked for such situation has been called "competition nice to have"

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> we had the same discussion in Poland 10 years ago - but finally it comes to the point that US is making decision - Grippen is made with serious share US origin parts - if uncle Sam is interested in the deal Grippen is on loosing position - in one company i use to worked for such situation has been called "competition nice to have"


I was surprised that Brazil took the Gripen over a US model. I recall that the Snowden affair temporarily rattled US-Brazil relations and may have poisoned the US offering. But not sufficiently so for the US to block SAAB's tech transfer to Brazil.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 29, 2022)

_ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine/KYIV, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Ukraine announced on Monday the start of a long-awaited counter-offensive to retake territory in the south seized by Russian forces since their invasion six months ago, a move reflecting Kyiv's growing confidence as Western military aid flows in.

[...]

"Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region," Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne cited southern command spokeswoman Natalia Humeniuk as saying.

[...]

Ukraine has been using sophisticated Western-supplied weapons to hit Russian ammunition dumps and wreak havoc with supply lines. Humeniuk told a briefing on Monday that Ukraine had struck more than 10 such ammunition dumps in the past week, adding they had "unquestionably weakened the enemy".


She declined to give details of the counter-offensive, saying Russian forces in southern Ukraine remained "quite powerful"._









Ukraine launches counter-offensive in south as Russia shells port city


Ukrainian troops bolstered by stepped-up Western military aid launched a long-awaited counter-offensive to retake territory in the south on Monday as Russian forces shelled residential areas of the Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv.




www.reuters.com





Now we'll see how much of my post #9626 above comes to pass.

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## Glider (Aug 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine/KYIV, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Ukraine announced on Monday the start of a long-awaited counter-offensive to retake territory in the south seized by Russian forces since their invasion six months ago, a move reflecting Kyiv's growing confidence as Western military aid flows in.
> 
> [...]
> 
> ...


An additional report from the Daily Telegraph. I do hope this is true, certainly something seems to be happening



Ukraine launches counter-offensive to retake Kherson from Russia



_The major operation appeared to start overnight with Himars strikes on Russian command centres and bridges, cutting off a supply of weapons and reinforcements to Russian forces in Kherson from occupied Crimea.

There were also unconfirmed reports that Ukraine's armed forces had used tanks, artillery and aviation to break through the first line of Russian defences near Kherson.

The Kakhovka group of Ukrainian soldiers claimed they had forced the 109th regiment of the so-called people's militia of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic from their defensive positions_.

_"In the Kherson region, Russian troops have moved away from their positions, paratroopers are fleeing the battlefield, " the Kakhovka Operational Group of Troops said in a Facebook post on Monday.

Footage shared online appeared to show stockpiles of ammunition at an abandoned Russian position in the Kherson Oblast.

According to early reports from the Odesa-based Dumskaya newspaper, Ukraine's armed forces liberated a number of settlements after launching their counter-offensive from the right bank of the Dnipro River.

Residents in the occupied town of Nova Kakhovka with Russian SIM cards were warned to evacuate the area by Kremlin-installed officials.

"An evacuation has been announced today during the day, the siren has been sounding most of the day. People have left their jobs, they are in bomb shelters," said the city's Russia-installed governor Vladimir Leontiev_.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

Glider said:


> An additional report from the Daily Telegraph. I do hope this is true, certainly something seems to be happening
> 
> 
> 
> ...


God speed Ukraine! I can only hope that the NATO-led supply chain is up to speed on the tens of thousands of artillery shells, rockets and small arms ammunition that will quickly be used at much higher rate. And that NATO recon satellites and SIGINT are in place. It's not going to be fun to be Russian general needing to use radio communications.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I can only hope that the NATO-led supply chain is up to speed on the tens of thousands of artillery shells, rockets and small arms ammunition that will quickly be used at much higher rate. And that NATO recon satellites and SIGINT are in place.


Could it be that's what Ukraine had been waiting for? I follow a YouTuber named Jake Broe, he covers investing and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as of late. He mentioned that new lists of equipment to be sent to Ukraine from the U.S. seem to be announced each week now. 
He has an economic take on the war. He mentioned that Putler's biggest enemy is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. By aggressively tackling inflation, Powell will bankrupt Russia by bringing down the price of oil. If oil gets to about $60 a barrel, Putler's Russia is doomed. India and China will still get a discount on Russia's tainted oil. So that's no help for Putler. There's just so much oil those two countries can take. Especially since there aren't enough/any pipelines to those two. 
I hope this doesn't get political.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 29, 2022)

More on the reported Ukrainian breakthrough towards Kherson:









Kherson: Ukraine claims new push in Russian-held region


Ukraine is seeking to retake the southern Kherson region - but Russia says the offensive failed.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More on the reported Ukrainian breakthrough towards Kherson:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Apparently the Russians are fleeing from the Kherson front and the first line of defence has been breached. This is going to be like Battle of the Pelennor Fields.

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 29, 2022)

Russia’s War on Ukraine: Six Months of Lies, Implemented - United States Department of State


This bulletin is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Português, Russian, Spanish, and Ukrainian. “Every day we fight so that everyone on the planet finally understands: we are not a colony, not an enclave, not a protectorate. Not a gubernia, an eyalet or a crown land, not a piece of a...




www.state.gov

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## RogerdeLluria (Aug 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Aug 29, 2022)

'The most important thing is that our children learn': Ukraine rushes to get schools bomb-proofed


Ukrainian authorities are building bomb shelters and repairing thousands of buildings damaged by Russian forces before the school term starts.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 29, 2022)

NZ soldier who died in Ukraine may never be repatriated


It might not be possible to bring home the body of a New Zealand soldier who was killed fighting in Ukraine, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 29, 2022)

When his hometown was bombed, he sprang into action to help the wounded. Now, he is a paramedic on the front line


When Serhiy Chornobryvets escaped Mariupol, he swapped his red paramedic uniform for military fatigues and went to the front line. Now he dreams of one day returning home.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 29, 2022)

Ukraine on edge as Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, region's towns shelled


Ukrainian residents were in anguish as reports of shelling around the plant fuelled fears of a radiation disaster.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 29, 2022)

Regardless of how the war plays out in the next six months, there's one scenario that's more likely than not


In the spirit of exploring potential futures, three possible trajectories for the next six months of the Russo-Ukraine war might be imagined, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## swampyankee (Aug 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Could it be that's what Ukraine had been waiting for? I follow a YouTuber named Jake Broe, he covers investing and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as of late. He mentioned that new lists of equipment to be sent to Ukraine from the U.S. seem to be announced each week now.
> He has an economic take on the war. He mentioned that Putler's biggest enemy is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. By aggressively tackling inflation, Powell will bankrupt Russia by bringing down the price of oil. If oil gets to about $60 a barrel, Putler's Russia is doomed. India and China will still get a discount on Russia's tainted oil. So that's no help for Putler. There's just so much oil those two countries can take. Especially since there aren't enough/any pipelines to those two.
> I hope this doesn't get political.


Any kind of serious US effort to reduce fossil fuel use will cause oil prices to drop.

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## Glider (Aug 29, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Any kind of serious US effort to reduce fossil fuel use will cause oil prices to drop.


Oil prices are very high, but I strongly doubt that Russia is gaining much from it. Almost every report I have seen says that Russia is only able to sell its oil at a significant discount. It is true that every country has to take every step it can to reduce the dependency on imports but that will take political will, which is seriously lacking in the UK. We have significant deposits suitable for fracking, but lack the courage to take those steps.

Lets hope others have more spine

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## SaparotRob (Aug 29, 2022)

The point being made is that western governments are damaging Russia’s ability to fight on by the raising of interest rates. War or not, dealing with inflation is painful.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Any kind of serious US effort to reduce fossil fuel use will cause oil prices to drop.


We can thank Russia for giving us all a kickstart on fossil fuel reduction. I imagine the oil dependent Arabs and Persians are none to pleased.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We can thank Russia for giving us all a kickstart on fossil fuel reduction. I imagine the oil dependent Arabs and Persians are none to pleased.


It's been happening for a while, now.

But until someone comes up with a reliable alternate power source, fossil fuel fuel will be the go-to.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 29, 2022)

Pixie farts?

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## GrauGeist (Aug 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Pixie farts?


Close - Hydrogen power would be the best avenue.


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## Jabberwocky (Aug 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's been happening for a while, now.
> 
> But until someone comes up with a reliable alternate power source, fossil fuel fuel will be the go-to.



Wind and utility scale PVs are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many parts of the world (even with storage needs). 
The problem is liquid fuels. 

Sustainable alternative fuels (SAF) are in the pipeline for road and air transport, but are expensive (2-6 times fossil fuels at present) and lack volume (second/third generation SAFs are about 0.5% of total air travel needs, for instance). Scale up is happening, but will take 5-10 years. There have been more SAF deals for aviation this year alone - both in number of deals and total volume of offtake - than all deals previously announced. New SAF pathways are coming as well (more F-T process and power to liquids) but these will take a little longer. 

Hybrid-electric systems are there for the road and are coming for air and shipping. For commercial aviation these offer potential 20-30% fuel savings. Technology is maturing now and almost ready for commercial use. It will be on ATR's 'EVO' turboprop re-engine and the new Embraer turboprop about 2028 to 2030. Assuming no programme delays, which is unlikely. 

Fully electric is a non-starter. Battery weight and energy densities are prohibitive for commercial flight. Electric engines are coming though - Rolls-Royce, Collins Aerospace, Honeywell, NASA/GE Aviation and some others are all testing 1-2 megaWatt engines at the moment (1500-3000+ hp) for use in sub 100 seat regional airliner designs post 2030.

Hydrogen is about 15-20 years off from the big time in commercial aviation (at least). Even if Airbus or Boeing decided today that they wanted to do a hydrogen powered aircraft, I'd say the earliest it would get into service would be about 2032 to 2035. The in-aircraft technology is actually maturing quite quickly, the problem is the infrastructure around it. Fossil fuel infrastructure has had the last 100+ years to be put in place. Providing a completely new network of fueling infrastructure, with lots of novel challenges around production, storage, handling and fueling, is going to take a long time to build.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But until someone comes up with a reliable alternate power source, fossil fuel fuel will be the go-to.


That’s nuclear fission combined with hydroelectric (where possible) solar, tidal and wind power along with advancements in batteries. The first annoys the Greens, but pragmatism will prevail - nuclear is the only non-GHG power source that can reliably replace the horsepower and electricity generated by fossil fuel.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 29, 2022)

The main problem with hydrogen technology, is that hydrogen is readily available, meaning it cannot be easily monopolized by corporations. The byproduct of hydrogen power is water - something else that would be difficult to control and make money from (in Oregon, it's against the law to collect rain water in your property).

Currently, the media mantra is "Hydrogen is extremely dangerous" and "hydrogen engines would cost more than an electric vehicle", which is not true.

Back in 1965, a guy converted a Model A Ford engine to run on hydrogen and it's been done several times since - and these are direct fuel conversions from gasoline.

A hydrogen power cell can power anything from a laptop computer to an electric vehicle.

But as I mentioned above, the powers-that-be will be slow in adopting the technology. If it ever will.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 29, 2022)

I think geothermal has a lot of untapped potential as well. Not for motor vehicles, exactly, but for electrical generation. Also for heating. But it could run into the same roadblocks as fracking.

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## Jabberwocky (Aug 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The main problem with hydrogen technology, is that hydrogen is readily available, meaning it cannot be easily monopolized by corporations.
> 
> ...
> But as I mentioned above, the powers-that-be will be slow in adopting the technology. If it ever will.



The internet just ate my lengthy reply, but the above just isn't true. Once you get beyond small-scale/experimental use, hydrogen becomes expensive and difficult to work with. The aviation sector is putting $ tens of millions (if not hundreds of millions) into hydrogen R&D right now, on both sides of the Atlantic. The first one to crack hydrogen is going to rack up sales of airliners like nobody's business - the future market is valued in the $ trillions.

Issues with hydrogen are:

Price per tonne is about 2-4 times that of traditional hydrocarbons (assuming oil at roughly USD100 per barrel). Even with better energy densities (2.5-3 times better), hydrogen still needs to come down in cost by AT LEAST 50% to make it economically competitive. Hydrogen production is a ~$150 billion a year industry, so it's not like they're not trying hard on that front either.

Delivery and storage are expensive and difficult. Hydrogen needs to be stored in pressurised containers, or cryogenically frozen to keep it a liquid. Hydrogen is also much more expensive to pipe than oil or natural gas (about a two thirds premium), and much harder to transport physically via ship/road/rail than traditional fossil fuels as well thanks to the storage issues.

Weight is a problem for aviation. For a commercial aircraft, hydrogen power is hampered by the weigh of its storage apparatus. Currently, Jet A1 powered aircraft have a 60-70% advantage in terms of total fuel/fuel system weight when compared to a hydrogen powered aircraft. That's a HUGE disadvantage that needs to be overcome - an A380 on Sydney-Los Angeles will burn around 210 tonnes of fuel (on a 520 tonne aircraft) and the fuel system in total weighs about another 30 tonnes. If you powered the same aircraft with hydrogen, it would need to weigh somewhere in the region of *145 to 160 tonnes* more.

There's also hydrogen's lack of volumetric efficiency. Given how bulky pressurised storage containers are, current designs would need to store hydrogen in the rear of the cabin, eating into passenger areas that could otherwise be used for revenue generating seats. A 150 seat narrowbody (A320 or 737) redone with hydrogen fuel cells to power it would lose about 30-40 seats - which would make it totally uneconomical to fly. Commercial airliners need a total rethink in terms of design if hydrogen is to be successful.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 29, 2022)

Well, the good news there is that the population curve is bending downward, so, by the time these systems are fully developed, you won't need as much capacity.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 29, 2022)

My house uses propane for heating and such. The fuel is transported in bulky, pressurized containers to my house and is then stored in a bulky, pressurized container.

Of course, I don't intend to fly my house anywhere (and I'm not in Kansas), so that's a non-issue.

My point about hydrogen versus battery-storage is aimed at motor vehicles, which currently consumes a large portion of oil production annually.

Battery powered vehicles store electricity, which is generated by various means, the large portion of that generation is via fossil fuel. Their batteries are composed of minerals which have a finite source, difficult to recycle and their mining has a negative environmental impact on the region's where it's extracted.

It's the 21st century, we can do better than that.

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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Close - Hydrogen power would be the best avenue.


yes if you will discover endless, clean supply of the hydrogen - in this moment all we are doing in this matter is based on converting hydrocarbons in hydrogen, by the way creating even more CO2


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## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 30, 2022)

The Second Law of Thermodynamics will always kick your ass.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 30, 2022)

The 3 laws of thermodynamics:
1. You can't win. 
2. You can't break even. 
3. You can't quit the game.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.

When hydrogen is combusted, it's byproduct is water, not CO2.

The only reason why this fuel source is not aggressively pursued, is because it cannot be monopolized.

After WWII, Los Angeles' extensive streetcar and intercounty light rail system was bought out by Goodyear and an oil company consortium (Southern California was a major oil producer) and was replaced by busses.
The goal was to replace the efficient transportation system with one that guaranteed a steady profit margin.

Alternate power sources exist, but they cannot guarantee investors a large profit margin by way of a controlled source, so they are dismissed or vilified.

Right now, major investments are being made in "green technology", primarily battery powered vehicles. So in the event of the decline of fossil fuel monopolies, they will still have a controlling edge.

A simple, abundant source of fuel would topple that dynasty, so of course, hydrogen is evil, dangerous, expensive or (insert scary words here) to be used as an alternate power source.

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## blueskies (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.
> 
> When hydrogen is combusted, it's byproduct is water, not CO2.
> 
> The only reason why this fuel source is not aggressively pursued, is because it cannot be monopolized.


The problem is how do you produce said hydrogen? Where does it come from?

Currently the options are;
1. Electrolysis from water, which uses an immense amount of energy
2. Get it from some fossil fuel - this is how almost all hydrogen is produced today

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## ThomasP (Aug 30, 2022)

Long term, the most efficient way to produce hydrogen on a large scale would be nuclear powered electrolysis. I figure this will get going about the same time we start using significant amounts of nuclear power for desalinization plants. Using the heat from nuclear steam plants to distill pure H2O from seawater is just a step away from using nuclear steam powered generators to produce electricity for use in electrolysis based hydrogen production.

I do not know what would be involved in terms of the number of nuclear plants we would need to produce enough hydrogen to fill the needs of transportation and industry, but to build a new nuke plant is currently taking about 10 years assuming no significant problems.

Bulk hydrogen transport and storage are solvable problems, but it will require huge investments in new/affordable technologies and infrastructure. I do not think there is any method (currently known) to accomplish this without significantly greater costs than for LP or gasoline.


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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Long term, the most efficient way to produce hydrogen on a large scale would be nuclear powered electrolysis. I figure this will get going about the same time we start using significant amounts of nuclear power for desalinization plants. Using the heat from nuclear steam plants to distill pure H2O from seawater is just a step away from using nuclear steam powered generators to produce electricity for use in electrolysis based hydrogen production.
> 
> I do not know what would be involved in terms of the number of nuclear plants we would need to produce enough hydrogen to fill the needs of transportation and industry, but to build a new nuke plant is currently taking about 10 years assuming no significant problems.
> 
> Bulk hydrogen transport and storage are solvable problems, but it will require huge investments in new/affordable technologies and infrastructure. I do not think there is any method (currently known) to accomplish this without significantly greater costs than for LP or gasoline.


excellent idea - one question - if we will replace all non-green sources of energy with nuclear power, how demand for uranium will looks like? do we have enough to satisfy such demand for next 300 years? where used fuel will be stored?
i have 2 general comments in this matter -1) only viable source of energy will be thermonuclear power - i think we are still 30-50 years from the point it will be real alternative to wat we have right now 
2) source of all our problems is not energy - it is overpopulation of planet

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## ThomasP (Aug 30, 2022)

re demand for uranium currently and in the future

"Uranium Mining Overview - World Nuclear Association"

Page down to 'Uranium resources and supply'

"There is therefore no reason to anticipate any shortage of uranium that would prevent conventional nuclear power from playing an expanding role in providing the world's energy needs for decades or even centuries to come. This does not even take into account improvements in nuclear power technology which could effectively increase the available resource dramatically."


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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re demand for uranium currently and in the future
> 
> "Uranium Mining Overview - World Nuclear Association"
> 
> ...


thanks - this is good response to my questions - this numbers suggesting that nuclear power is viable way for interim solution untill thermonuclear power plants will reach maturity - of course cost will be enormous...


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## ThomasP (Aug 30, 2022)

We can hope!


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

Well, that’s sources of power well covered. Any news from Ukraine?

This is ingenious. 



How dummy Himars are depleting Russia's missile supplies



Now I want one, at 1:48 scale or so….

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## Denniss (Aug 30, 2022)

Nuclear power in its current form is a dead end - too many problems with nuclear waste.
At the moment we must use wind an solar energy for electrolyse as the only real green solution.


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## special ed (Aug 30, 2022)

One last derail, if possible. Back when I studied these things, as an amateur, the only nuclear "fission" power plant built, had been tried in the old USSR. What we have all over the world now is nuclear "fusion", a different animal. A fission plant could use the byproduct from the fusion plant and leave a non dangerous residue. The obvious danger of a fission plant is, rather than a meltdown, one gets a mushroom cloud


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## vikingBerserker (Aug 30, 2022)

In regards to Solar and Wing, I see them both as augmenting versus being the primary at this point. My concern with going primarily solar is what happens when a large volcanic eruption occurs such as Yellow Stone and the sunlight is blocked our for a week or two. I tihnk in the end the lage contributors will be nuclear, hydro and thermo (where applicable).

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Trying (again - folks, start a new thread on green energy if you want to discuss that topic) to get back on track....interesting analysis from the BBC. I hadn't realized there was a canal just east of Kherson that supplies Crimea with much of its fresh water supply. The focus of the Ukrainian offensive makes a lot more sense if the intent is to take over that water source. 

*Why does Kherson matter?*
_Leaving aside the debate over how successful the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been so far, it is clear Kherson has become a key tactical battleground in recent days and weeks.
But why are the Ukrainians fighting so hard to recapture the city against Russians battling to retain control?
One of most obvious explanations is its location in the south of Ukraine, on the Black Sea coast at the mouth of the Dnipro river.
Kherson is a major port city and is located only around 60 miles (about 100km) from Russian-occupied Crimea, offering access to shipping, naval and other vital sea routes.
Just to the east of the city is the origin of the North Crimea Canal, which provides a significant portion of the annexed peninsula's fresh water supplies.
The city effectively functions as a bridge between the Crimean peninsula, occupied by Russia since 2014, and the rest of Ukraine.
Moreover, Kherson remains the only major city the Russian military has captured and successfully held throughout the war so far._


Now...there may be blowback if Ukraine cuts off Crimea's water supply but it's not like the Russian's haven't done effectively the same thing in their massed, indiscriminate artillery strikes against multiple Ukrainian towns and cities.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

This map (again, sourced from the BBC) shows areas of significant fighting in the past 24 hrs. I personally don't like the definitions in the key, notably the "Russian Advances" piece. They've been painting the same region as "advances" for weeks now and it strikes me that the those areas are more accurately described as "Contested Regions." It's not logical for both Russia and Ukraine to be advancing in the same area...unless they're walking past each other.

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## fubar57 (Aug 30, 2022)

Russia facing ‘numerous failures’ with Iran-supplied drones for Ukraine war: U.S. - National | Globalnews.ca


Russian operators continue to receive training in Iran on how to use the drone systems on the battlefield in Ukraine, U.S. government officials said.




globalnews.ca

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

Some great in-cockpit footage here.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

More BBC reporting:
_
There has been a partial power outage in the Kherson region, Russia's occupying authorities have said, according to Russian news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti. A partial shutdown of the water supply has also been reported, as well as traffic lights and building lights going off, Russian agencies say._

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Compare and contrast Ukraine's leadership with "bravery" of the Russian-appointed lackeys in the captured regions:

_In an interesting turn of events, the Russian-appointed deputy leader of occupied Kherson appears to have left the city and is working from nearly 500 miles away in Russia.

Hawk-eyed social media users noted video updates posted to Kirill Stremousov's Telegram account in recent days appeared to have been taken from the Marriott Hotel in Voronezh._






_The BBC has not been able to verify why or when he left Kherson, but has been able to confirm his presence in the western Russian city.

The videos also clearly indicate they were filmed from the five-star hotel, given the height of the building it was shot from and the positions of several buildings in the background - including the impressive five-domed Annunciation Cathedral.

Voronezh is about 120 miles (200km) from the border with Ukraine and more than 460 miles from Kherson itself.

In his most recent update earlier today, Stremousov criticised Western and Ukrainian media coverage of the fighting around Kherson._

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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Some great in-cockpit footage here.



Interesting - it looks like the Ukrainians are also using old hand held GPS units in their MiG-29s.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 30, 2022)

First thing I looked for in cockpit shots.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Interesting - it looks like the Ukrainians are also using old hand held GPS units in their MiG-29s.
> 
> View attachment 684487


Are Soviet era aircraft able to have modern GPS/GLONASS integrated into it's system, or are the older dashmount systems the only workaround?

For example, what did the Polish Air Force do about this?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Some great in-cockpit footage here.



Actual combat footage?

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Are Soviet era aircraft able to have modern GPS/GLONASS integrated into it's system, or are the older dashmount systems the only workaround?
> 
> For example, what did the Polish Air Force do about this?


I've seen some clips of Russian aircraft doing this as well.

Maybe 
J
 J_P_C
has some info


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## Dimlee (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, that’s sources of power well covered. Any news from Ukraine?
> 
> This is ingenious.
> 
> ...


Hopefully, no Russian drones in your area.

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## GTX (Aug 30, 2022)

Zelenskyy tells Russians to flee for their lives as Ukraine launches offensive in south


"If they want to survive it's time for the Russian military to run away. Go home," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says in his nightly address.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 30, 2022)

Volunteer sniper embodies Ukraine’s versatile military


After moving to Western Europe to work an an engineer, Andriy scrambled back to Ukraine at the start of the war, and within weeks underwent a conversion from civilian life to a sniper being trained by the country's special forces.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Aug 30, 2022)

Russian commander Andrey Gurulev calls on Vladimir Putin to 'wipe out the British Isles'

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian commander Andrey Gurulev calls on Vladimir Putin to 'wipe out the British Isles'



That is some crazy, CRAZY rhetoric. Some direct quotes:

_"To serious things - London understands there is no defence against [Russian] hypersonic missiles," he told viewers.

"They understand, too, that the main target isn't Germany or France - but the British Isles.

"It is the closest target, it's a nice target, which would allow [us] to change the outcome of this conflict [in Ukraine].

"So by completely wiping out the British Isles I think we'll finish this story."_


Yes, it would completely finish the story because it would trigger NATO Article 5....and that's endex for Moscow's plans.

Some of his other comments are more laughable. For example, he claimed that the RAF had "decentralised" its warplanes to different locations, fearing a possible attack. Anyone who knows ANYTHING about the RAF and the UK in general realizes that there aren't a whole lot of airfields where the RAF could disperse assets (assuming that's what he means by "decentralize"). 

These muppets really are in a world of their own. I know it's all for Russian internal consumption but they make Alex Jones sound rational.

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## Dimlee (Aug 30, 2022)

1941
Tokyo: this China affair is too long, why don't we bomb Pearl Harbor?
Berlin: Eastern Front and Africa are complicated, we already fight on several fronts, why don't declare war against the USA?

2022
Moscow: Ukrainians do not capitulate? Sanctions? Hold my beer...

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

Considering how well the "special operation" is going for Russia right now, threatening England (again) is good comedy.
I notice they aren't threatening Finland much these days. I wonder if it's because someone took the Russian noise-makers aside and reminded them that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.

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## Dimlee (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Considering how well the "special operation" is going for Russia right now, threatening England (again) is good comedy.
> I notice they aren't threatening Finland much these days. I wonder if it's because someone took the Russian noise-makers aside and reminded them that Finland is a charter member of the "f**k around and find out" club.


That guy, Andrey Gurulev "declared war" on Britain earlier, in June - when there were tensions around Kaliningrad. At that time his plan was three stages:
1. 100% of all US and UK satellites are destroyed. 
2. 100% of the air and missile defence of the UK is destroyed.
3. London gets the first blow.
Timing not mentioned, but probably 3 days, as the capture of Kyiv.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 30, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> That guy, Andrey Gurulev "declared war" on Britain earlier, in June - when there were tensions around Kaliningrad. At that time his plan was three stages:
> 1. 100% of all US and UK satellites are destroyed.
> 2. 100% of the air and missile defence of the UK is destroyed.
> 3. London gets the first blow.
> Timing not mentioned, but probably 3 days, as the capture of Kyiv.


Don't laugh at this guy. Russia still has huge amounts of surplus equipment. They must have P-39s.

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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I've seen some clips of Russian aircraft doing this as well.
> 
> Maybe
> J
> ...


depends of predicted service life PAF's MiG29 has been subject of three different modification programs - first one simplest - it was related to ex Luftwaffe airplanes - due to bad technical condition in moment this airplanes has been transferred to Poland it basically stay in Luftwaffe configuration (which wasn't really bad at all - far better than original 9.12 with integrated NATO onboard equipment, - second one - intermediate - with TACAN, VOR/ILS and GPS in civilian standard integrated with navigation suite through add on data custom build converters - data from this units has been converted to MiG avionics standard and feed to russian computer to be presented on HUD display, third - most advanced - as presented on pictures below - sorry for descriptions in polish - if this will amaze anyone i will provide further clarification

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## FLYBOYJ (Aug 30, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> depends of predicted service life PAF's MiG29 has been subject of three different modification programs - first one simplest - it was related to ex Luftwaffe airplanes - due to bad technical condition in moment this airplanes has been transferred to Poland it basically stay in Luftwaffe configuration (which wasn't really bad at all - far better than original 9.12 with integrated NATO onboard equipment, - second one - intermediate - with TACAN, VOR/ILS and GPS in civilian standard integrated with navigation suite through add on data custom build converters - data from this units has been converted to MiG avionics standard and feed to russian computer to be presented on HUD display, third - most advanced - as presented on pictures below - sorry for descriptions in polish - if this will amaze anyone i will provide further clarification
> View attachment 684529
> 
> View attachment 684530


Excellent information, thank you for posting! So it’s safe to say that Poland did not adopt the practice of installing commercial off-the-shelf handheld GPS units as seen on Russian and Ukrainian aircraft?


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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Since it's related to things Russian, it's worth noting that Mikhail Gorbachev has died aged 91. Seen in the West as the architect of the end of the Cold War, and of Russia joining the rest of the world through his policy of Glasnost, he was, unsurprisingly, viewed rather differently in Russia as the instigator of the chaos that came after the fall of the Soviet Union. 

Regardless of your viewpoint, he was a brave man who acted on his principles. Oh, that we had a few more like him in Russia today.

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## J_P_C (Aug 30, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Excellent information, thank you for posting! So it’s safe to say that Poland did not adopt the practice of installing commercial off-the-shelf handheld GPS units as seen on Russian and Ukrainian aircraft?


it may happen in a case of equipment malfunction as a backup until sourcing spares just to keep aircraft flying (i've seen things like this) - even handheld Garmin is far more comfortable to use navigation aid than IKWK platform based inertial system, not mentioning RSBN which is simply piece of crap. But as a general rule our Air Force put specific effort to make it slightly better.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian commander Andrey Gurulev calls on Vladimir Putin to 'wipe out the British Isles'


This sort of silly, empty threat of nuclear attack is demonstrative of the corner Russia has put itself. Beyond cutting off fossil fuels, Russia has no means of hurting or deterring the West from assisting Ukraine. Putin is clearly convinced that NATO is able and willing to evoke Article 5 and to defend its membership. Putin is impotent and the world now knows it.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sort of silly, empty threat of nuclear attack is demonstrative of the corner Russia has put itself. Beyond cutting off fossil fuels, Russia has no means of hurting or deterring the West from assisting Ukraine. Putin is clearly convinced that NATO is able and willing to evoke Article 5 and to defend its membership. Putin is impotent and the world now knows it.



He wasn't threatening nuclear attack but a conventional attack by hypersonic missiles.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> He wasn't threatening nuclear attack but a conventional attack by hypersonic missiles.


Ah. And what did he predict the British and NATO response would be?

Britain doesn't have like weapons with which to reply in kind. So it'll be at minimum conventional TLAMs into Moscow - and we've seen how inept Russian air defences are.


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## Jabberwocky (Aug 30, 2022)

Reports are starting to filter in about Ukrainian advances immediately south of Mikolaiv, as well as to the east-northeast.

I don't know about Ukrainian claims of breaking the first line of Russian defense, but OSINT reports are that villages up to 5km inside nominally Russian controlled territory have been recaptured by Ukrainian forces in the last 48 hours.

Looks like the advance is concentrated on three or four axes.

I've seen some speculation that the majority of Ukrainian strength in the area is deployed in the northeast of the region, with the intent of rolling south towards the Dnipro, trapping a large pocket of Russian forces and then allowing them to wither on the vine. Soviet Russian artillery is also reportedly concentrated more in the south, around Kherson, rather than in the northeast, which would make advancing in the northeast easier.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

Useful daily progress map here.









Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine


This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity and, where possible, street level assessments of the war in Ukraine. ISW’s daily campaign assessments of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including our static maps, are available at...




storymaps.arcgis.com

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

The threat of attack by their Satan II (RS-28) missiles are, indeed a thinly veiled threat of nuclear attack.

The Satan II is an ICBM carrying up to 15 warheads.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The threat of attack by their Satan II (RS-28) missiles are, indeed a thinly veiled threat of nuclear attack.


I don’t want to see it tested, but I wonder in the post-CW era’s institutional theft and corruption if Russia’s ICBM force is truely operational? 









Do any of Russia's Nuclear Weapons Actually Work?


I know, the title is crazy, right? We all know that Russia is the big #2 nuclear power in the world. They have thousands of warheads — actually, according to Wiki, about 1,500 actively deployed and 4,500 in standby reserve. That’s a whole lot of...




www.dailykos.com













Russia's Strategic Nuclear Weapons are Complete Duds


The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction remains a prominent part of America’s nuclear deterrence strategy for the Soviet Union’s successor, the Russian government.




nationalinterest.org













Putin humiliated as ‘60 percent’ of Russia’s missiles ‘don’t work’


VLADIMIR PUTIN's arsenal of missiles may not be as threatening as many feared after US officials claimed the majority of Russia's warheads do not work.




www.express.co.uk

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ah. And what did he predict the British and NATO response would be?
> 
> Britain doesn't have like weapons with which to reply in kind. So it'll be at minimum conventional TLAMs into Moscow - and we've seen how inept Russian air defences are.



Well...there's a difference between forward-deployed air defences and those protecting the motherland, particularly Moscow. I think NATO's response would be to take to the field, en masse, to destroy the Russian army in Ukraine and roll it back to the pre-2014 borders....and then stop and demand peace terms from Moscow. 

Of course, all this is hypothetical because we've no idea whether Russia even has the number of hypersonic missiles to conduct the attack as outlined by the nut-job Gurulev. When they're throwing ancient SS-21 SCARABs at Ukraine, with only a few confirmed instances of hypersonic missile use, I have to wonder how big the arsenal of the latter is, particularly as it will be hard to replenish given current sanctions.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> That guy, Andrey Gurulev "declared war" on Britain earlier, in June - when there were tensions around Kaliningrad. At that time his plan was three stages:
> 1. 100% of all US and UK satellites are destroyed.
> 2. 100% of the air and missile defence of the UK is destroyed.
> 3. London gets the first blow.
> Timing not mentioned, but probably 3 days, as the capture of Kyiv.



One has to question his grasp of geography with his statement that Britain is the "closest target." 

You'd think, given that their level of GPS development is non-existent, that Russian military personnel would know how to read a map.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The threat of attack by their Satan II (RS-28) missiles are, indeed a thinly veiled threat of nuclear attack.
> 
> The Satan II is an ICBM carrying up to 15 warheads.



Where were Satan II missiles mentioned in the article? Gurulev specifically mentioned Zircon hypersonic missiles in the linked article. Is there another, more comprehensive version of the story that mentions Satan II?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Where were Satan II missiles mentioned in the article? Gurulev specifically mentioned Zircon hypersonic missiles in the linked article. Is there another, more comprehensive version of the story that mentions Satan II?


This goes back to May, but it's been mentioned several times since then, both by Kremlin mouth-pieces and by that Olga female on their pet TV station.









Russia makes new threats over use of Satan-2 hypersonic nuclear missile on Britain


Kremlin official also says it is ‘absolutely legitimate’ for Russia to question existence of Finland




www.independent.co.uk

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> This goes back to May, but it's been mentioned several times since then, both by Kremlin mouth-pieces and by that Olga female on their pet TV station.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ahhhh...gotcha. Thanks for the pointer. Still, pick a fight with little old Blighty and NATO will respond full-force. And if nukes are used, it'll be endex for Moscow unless Russia also tries to take out the US at the same time.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t want to see it tested, but I wonder in the post-CW era’s institutional theft and corruption if Russia’s ICBM force is truely operational?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I honestly think their nuclear arsenal is not in very good shape.
The reasons you mentioned, plus apathy in the ranks (which effects upkeep of hardware) makes it very likely that a portion of the missiles are not fit to be used.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

The other observation about the Satan II is that it was only tested back in April 2022 so I question the number they actually have in service.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The other observation about the Satan II is that it was only tested back in April 2022 so I question the number they actually have in service.


Russia has been going on about it's fearsome hypersonic missiles, but I don't recall any word of it being tested.
The same can be said of China's hypersonic missile, too.

The only test that I'm aware of, was the U.S. test back in late June (or early July), which failed. The failure was caused by an "anomaly" due to the "complexity of it's design".

So if the U.S. is having issues with it, I'm thinking that Russia is waving a piece of paper at everyone and expecting them to be frightened.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russia has been going on about it's fearsome hypersonic missiles, but I don't recall any word of it being tested.
> The same can be said of China's hypersonic missile, too.
> 
> The only test that I'm aware of, was the U.S. test back in late June (or early July), which failed. The failure was caused by an "anomaly" due to the "complexity of it's design".
> ...



Here's some fact-checking by Reuters on Satan II:









Fact Check-Russia’s ‘Satan 2’ long-range missile has been in development for years


Russia did not unveil a new missile in 2022 which can destroy all living things in one strike, contrary to suggestions made online.




www.reuters.com






Regarding the test, here's some info on the test and current status. It's from Wiki but given the lies the emanate from Moscow, it's probably as accurate as any other info on the missile that's available on the interwebbythingy:
_
On 20 April 2022, according to the Russian Defense Ministry:

"At 15:12 Moscow time at the Plesetsk state test cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region, a Sarmat fixed-based intercontinental ballistic missile was successfully launched from a silo launcher."— Russian Defense Ministry

The first contract for the production of the missiles was signed in August 2022._


Note that if the first production contract was only signed this month (yes, we're still in August....just), then there's NO WAY they'll have an operational force for many months to come.

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## Greg Boeser (Aug 30, 2022)

Did western intelligence agencies confirm the launch?


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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Did western intelligence agencies confirm the launch?


That's just it, I haven't seen any commentary from intellegence sources discussing their "test".

Russia claimed their prototype's test was successful and aparently, from that one test, they'll have 'em rolling off the assembly line like pancakes at Denny's...


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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's just it, I haven't seen any commentary from intellegence sources discussing their "test".
> 
> Russia claimed their prototype's test was successful and aparently, from that one test, they'll have 'em rolling off the assembly line like pancakes at Denny's...



Oh...and they're struggling to build new tanks so what chance of building a new, high-tech missile that allegedly has performance that no other country's missile programme has yet achieved. 

I'm not ready to start quaking in my boots just yet.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm not ready to start quaking in my boots just yet.


Oh but you should!

His Imperial Majesty, Czar Putin the Great has spoken - so it must be true.

Of course, he said he was going to "clean up" those pesky Ukrainians, too.

However, it appears that Ukraine somehow missed the memo...

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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Oh but you should!
> 
> His Imperial Majesty, Czar Putin the Great has spoken - so it must be true.
> 
> ...



But...but...it's all going to plan. Dmitri Peskov said so, as recently as yesterday!


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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

Olga Skabeyeva has been saying that NATO is the reason why the Ukraine has been naughty and the west should be nuked punished for encouraging Ukrainians to look away from their masters.

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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Olga Skabeyeva has been saying that NATO is the reason why the Ukraine has been naughty and the west should be nuked punished for encouraging Ukrainians to look away from their masters.



Those Russian vox-boxes certainly dislike it when the proletariat get ideas above their station. It’s a long-running thread through the nation’s history.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

I've mentioned before, the opinion of my Fianceé's father (former Bulgarian Army vet) about Russians:
"they are all villagers. They need to be told what to do. They cannot think for themselves".

And this was one of his nicer opinions...

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## WARSPITER (Aug 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Those Russian vox-boxes certainly dislike it when the proletariat get ideas above their station. It’s a long-running thread through the nation’s history.


The way things are going this thread could be a history of the last days of Putins Russia.

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## J_P_C (Aug 31, 2022)

i tend to agree with you, it seems to be long and painful agony, from other hand 3/4 of world's population will give standing ovation when this process will reach it's expected and for sure spectacular end.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Aug 31, 2022)

Once again Putin briefed at the tiny desk and holding the corner with the right hand.

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## ThomasP (Aug 31, 2022)

re the UK being the "closest target"

From what I have been reading, it appears that the Russian nationalist 'elite' are suffering from a combination of arrogance and self-originating propaganda.

It seems the idea is that the US and UK are the ringleaders/prime-movers behind opposition to Russia. The rest of NATO (and whoever) are followers of the US and UK political machines.

It is a bit insulting to the UK and other countries concerned.

Many of the Russian leadership consider the US to be a manufacturing problem and a meddling influence on the rest of the world, but that the US itself would fall apart under any real threat to the mainland.

Russia considers Britain to be the 'spine' of NATO (this has been a phrase used repeatedly in Russian internal discussions).

The rest of the EU & NATO are considered (by a majority of the Russian leadership) to be either unable and/or unwilling to stand up to Russian threat if left without US and UK influence. This attitude is particularly prevalent where the former Warsaw Pact countries are considered. It seems they hold the leadership and will of the people of Poland (for example) to resist in similar regard as they did that of the Ukrainians.

You would think that they would have wised up to the error in their equation after what has happened in Ukraine, but there seems to be a time lag among Russia's leadership in processing the implication of recent events, and understanding/accepting the lesson being learned.

There are reportedly quite a few of the Russian hierarchy that are not blind, but they have to be careful what they say around the 'true believers' and hence are reluctant to say anything at all.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> …encouraging Ukrainians to look away from their masters.


Russia through its invasion has hugely boosted Ukrainian nationalism, linguistic/ethnic identity and global recognition. That’s called unintended consequences.

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## ThomasP (Aug 31, 2022)

I admit that I had never thought that the Russian leadership would manage to alienate the other nations that endured the events of WWII, to the degree that they would begin tearing down memorials to the sacrifices of the Russian & Soviet Union peoples.

"https://www.google.com/search?q=eur...AgAEAiAEAkgEAmAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz"

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## blueskies (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russia has been going on about it's fearsome hypersonic missiles, but I don't recall any word of it being tested.
> The same can be said of China's hypersonic missile, too.
> 
> The only test that I'm aware of, was the U.S. test back in late June (or early July), which failed. The failure was caused by an "anomaly" due to the "complexity of it's design".
> ...


Which hypersonics are you referring to? Because they have used Kh-47s against Ukraine.


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## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I admit that I had never thought that the Russian leadership would manage to alienate the other nations that endured the events of WWII, to the degree that they would begin tearing down memorials to the sacrifices of the Russian & Soviet Union peoples.


I was surprised there were any memorials left that survived the early 1990s.


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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re the UK being the "closest target"
> 
> From what I have been reading, it appears that the Russian nationalist 'elite' are suffering from a combination of arrogance and self-originating propaganda.
> 
> ...



Much of the Russian spoutage on NATO and the west smacks of mirror-imaging. They live under an autocratic dictatorship and thus they view the US and NATO through that prism, with the US mandating and the NATO Allies genuflecting and simply doing America's will. 

Anyone who's sat in on NATO meetings can attest the inaccuracy of that view. The US doesn't dictate policy, military or otherwise, to its NATO Allies...and the NATO Allies themselves are not shrinking violets who simply toe the line. It takes so long to accomplish ANYTHING within NATO simply because of differing national positions across all the NATO Allies.

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## WARSPITER (Aug 31, 2022)

The US, UK and NATO 'lackeys' were the focus of military planning for so long in Russia it hasn't really changed.

This is reflected in the use of ground forces and the use of the air force in particular.


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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

If we go back to the early days of Russia's invasion, it was Poland who led the charge in Ukraine's assistance, not the US or UK.

It was impressive to see how quickly the European nations set aside their differences and immediately focused on getting help to the Ukrainians.

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## SaparotRob (Aug 31, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Once again Putin briefed at the tiny desk and holding the corner with the right hand.



I think that guy is sweating bullets 'cause he's gonna' be eating one soon.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Much of the Russian spoutage on NATO and the west smacks of mirror-imaging. They live under an autocratic dictatorship and thus they view the US and NATO through that prism,


I wonder what Russians think of the peaceful (POTUS45's nonsense aside) transition of power in the US. Since Putin came to power in 1999 the USA has had five Presidents. Do Russian's see this as weakness or strength?

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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Russians think of the peaceful (POTUS45's nonsense aside) transition of power in the US. Since Putin came to power in 1999 the USA has had five Presidents. Do Russian's see this as weakness or strength?



To the "true believers" in Russia, democracy is inherently flawed and weak. Dissent and disagreement slow down decision-making, which offers advantages to centralized autocracies which can make decisions faster. In addition, the political divisions within democracies are fracture points which can be (and are) exploited by those autocratic governments that seek to disrupt democratic nations.

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## GTX (Aug 31, 2022)

Ukraine makes push along entire front line as IAEA team heads for nuclear plant


As a team from the UN nuclear watchdog set off from Kyiv towards the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukrainian troops continue attacks on Russian positions along the entire front line.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

Have the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces played any roles since the invasion beyond regular infantry?









Ukrainian Air Assault Forces - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





It would be something if a parachute attack as part of the Kherson offensive was undertaken in order to secure or prevent river crossings behind the Russian lines. This would presumably be one of the first large scale drops since 2003's Operation Northern Delay.


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## MiTasol (Aug 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> *If we go back to the early days of Russia's invasion, it was Poland who led the charge in Ukraine's assistance, not the US or UK.*
> 
> It was impressive to see how quickly the European nations set aside their differences and immediately focused on getting help to the Ukrainians.



HERETIC

How dare you tell the truth.

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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

Yep - that's me, the trouble maker...

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## MiTasol (Aug 31, 2022)

and proud of it I hope.

(I never say be good because that takes much of the fun out of life)

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## buffnut453 (Aug 31, 2022)

I try to be good about being bad...does that count?

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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

I actually put a great deal of effort into being civil.


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## Dimlee (Aug 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Russians think of the peaceful (POTUS45's nonsense aside) transition of power in the US. Since Putin came to power in 1999 the USA has had five Presidents. Do Russian's see this as weakness or strength?


As nonsense, as political theatre. As something unnecessary and potentially dangerous for their country. I don't remember polls with exactly this question, but other polls make me think so.

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## Dimlee (Aug 31, 2022)

blueskies said:


> Which hypersonics are you referring to? Because they have used Kh-47s against Ukraine.


Yes, when Kremlin's propaganda outlets brag about the hypersonic weapon in service, usually they mean Kinzhal - ballistic Iskander modified for aerial launch. They call it hyper-sonic because it exceeds Mach 5... As the original Iskander, as most, if not all, other ballistic missiles, starting with German A-4(V-2) and including Tochka-U which is still being used by Ukrainian Army.

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## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

What is a militarily exhausted and prestige-weakened Russia going to do when China starts pushing its claims on Vladivostok and area?









'This is our land,' China now claims Russia’s Vladivostok as part of its territory


The claims of China over Vladivostok in Russia are not limited to the state-owned media. Even Chinese diplomats have jumped in. Zhang Heqing, a.............




tfipost.com

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## Glider (Aug 31, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think that guy is sweating bullets 'cause he's gonna' be eating one soon.


I think I would be more concerned about the coffee and biscuits

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## GrauGeist (Aug 31, 2022)

Polonium Tea aparently has a bitter aftertaste...

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

So, I read somewhere that Kazakhstan seems to be livening up a bit. How's it hanging in Georgia? I think some folks there are watching the Kherson offensive with interest.

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## at6 (Sep 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Compare and contrast Ukraine's leadership with "bravery" of the Russian-appointed lackeys in the captured regions:
> 
> _In an interesting turn of events, the Russian-appointed deputy leader of occupied Kherson appears to have left the city and is working from nearly 500 miles away in Russia.
> 
> ...


Perhaps the scum sucker will get to taste Putinaide.


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## at6 (Sep 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Olga Skabeyeva has been saying that NATO is the reason why the Ukraine has been naughty and the west should be nuked punished for encouraging Ukrainians to look away from their masters.


Olga should go suck a horse sausage.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> To the "true believers" in Russia, democracy is inherently flawed and weak. Dissent and disagreement slow down decision-making, which offers advantages to centralized autocracies which can make decisions faster. In addition, the political divisions within democracies are fracture points which can be (and are) exploited by those autocratic governments that seek to disrupt democratic nations.



On the other hand, you don't have the diversity of opinion that might save a country from an "oops" moment.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What is a militarily exhausted and prestige-weakened Russia going to do when China starts pushing its claims on Vladivostok and area?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's rather a loaded piece of rhetoric there.

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## at6 (Sep 1, 2022)

If the Russians do go nuclear, I would like to at least die knowing that every single inch of Russia would be incinerated.


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## WARSPITER (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That's rather a loaded piece of rhetoric there.


China has put in 'historical' territorial claims against around 21 different countries including Russia (140,000 sq km's including Vladivostok), all of Vietnam,
both North and South Korea, Northern Laos, North Eastern India, the Spratley Islands, Taiwan of course, Islands off Japan including at one stage, Okinawa
and so on. There is also the claim to the whole of the South China Sea which goes against all international treaties, agreements etc.

The real problem for China now is economic. All the major tech companies are moving out as fast as they can. Heavy industries are moving out as well.
The buying and selling of property where no one lives has created a huge increase in prices which cannot be sustained and is not a bursting bubble but
more like a balloon that has so many holes it leaks out faster than the air can go in.

All this is the stuff that can create a panic in the upper controllers leading to irrational moves. I hope it evens out before it gets that far.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> China has put in 'historical' territorial claims against around 21 different countries including Russia (140,000 sq km's including Vladivostok), all of Vietnam,
> both North and South Korea, Northern Laos, North Eastern India, the Spratley Islands, Taiwan of course, Islands off Japan including at one stage, Okinawa
> and so on. There is also the claim to the whole of the South China Sea which goes against all international treaties, agreements etc.
> 
> ...



I'm not arguing that China isn't being grabby. I'm suggesting that the loaded language of that article seems to be strong indicator of bias.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not arguing that China isn't being grabby. I'm suggesting that the loaded language of that article seems to be strong indicator of bias.


Absolutely but here in Australia I have also heard on radio and television from Australian journalists that China categorically has only one claim
and that is Taiwan. No mention of the others. 

It's a real push and pull in India as I have friends from there who have explained the complex state system and how there are some who support socialist views
so they support China and others who are opposites. Vive la difference ?

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## MiTasol (Sep 1, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> *Absolutely but here in Australia I have also heard on radio and television from Australian journalists that China categorically has only one claim
> and that is Taiwan. No mention of the others.*
> 
> It's a real push and pull in India as I have friends from there who have explained the complex state system and how there are some who support socialist views
> so they support China and others who are opposites. Vive la difference ?



True but Aus media is really parochial much of the time so I also look at US and European media to get a better view. Until about a year ago I also looked at an NZ site but they have gone all waka and now insist on putting as many neoMaori words in every article as they can get away with and that just makes their articles unreadable.

Was a great site before that and often covered Aus stories that the Aus media refused to cover or hid where search engines could not find them.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That's rather a loaded piece of rhetoric there.


True, and I couldn’t find a more reputable, mainstream media source for China’s aims on Russian territory. But it only makes sense that a weakened Russia will present an opportunity for China, especially if Taiwan is denied them.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 1, 2022)

Top Russian oil official falls to death from hospital window - sources


Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil , died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The real problem for China now is economic. All the major tech companies are moving out as fast as they can. Heavy industries are moving out as well. The buying and selling of property where no one lives has created a huge increase in prices which cannot be sustained and is not a bursting bubble but more like a balloon that has so many holes it leaks out faster than the air can go in.


I do wonder how China is affording its massive military expansion. It’s not as if they can sell debt to the West, and we’re pulling a lot of offshore consumer goods manufacturing to elsewhere.

But I’m clearly taking us off topic. So I’ll say no more on China outside of Ukraine war context.







I'll conclude by saying that if through its abject failure to defeat Ukraine and its new reputation for shoddy military kit and prowess Russia is perceived as weak, China will become more grabby. Likely before 2030.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

at6 said:


> Olga should go suck a horse sausage.


That’s how she keeps her job.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> On the other hand, you don't have the diversity of opinion that might save a country from an "oops" moment.


Our Glorious State is “oops free”. There is no need for corrupt and weak opinions that spread only lies about the inevitable triumph of Russky Mir.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Our Glorious State is “oops free”. There is no need for corrupt and weak opinions that spread only lies about the inevitable triumph of Russky Mir.


Is he an ice hockey player or something ?

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 1, 2022)

A
 Admiral Beez
. Whats with the optimistic?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Top Russian oil official falls to death from hospital window - sources
> 
> 
> Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil , died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.
> ...



They should be able to have answers in a day or so, going by their recent assassination investigation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> True, and I couldn’t find a more reputable, mainstream media source for China’s aims on Russian territory. But it only makes sense that a weakened Russia will present an opportunity for China, especially if Taiwan is denied them.



It was just odd to see that post from you, after your multiple warnings upthread about biased media and finding corroboration.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It was just odd to see that post from you, after your multiple warnings upthread about biased media and finding corroboration.


I was temped to mark that as Creative in good fun, but I thought you might explode. I'm as inconsistent as the rest, but I more warn off from sharing unverified Twitter posts.


Snautzer01 said:


> A
> Admiral Beez
> . Whats with the optimistic?


Sarcastically optimistic that it was a suicide.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was temped to mark that as Creative in good fun, but I thought you might explode. I'm as inconsistent as the rest, but I more warn off from sharing unverified Twitter posts.
> 
> Sarcastically optimistic that it was a suicide.



lol. "explode"? Do you think you matter that much to me? I only asked you what you meant by that tag because it's unclear.

In the meantime, you should probably mow your own yard before telling others their grass is too high ... just sayin'. "Do as I say, not as I do" is never a good look.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Top Russian oil official falls to death from hospital window - sources
> 
> 
> Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil , died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.
> ...


He lost his balance as a result of too many opinions confusing his True Direction and led him off the path of Russky Mir.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They should be able to have answers in a day or so, going by their recent assassination investigation.
> View attachment 684852



They already have the answer....it was a tragic accident (at the end of a boot).

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## buffnut453 (Sep 1, 2022)

Interesting piece of journalism. Possibility of Ukraine also launching attacks eastwards:









In the east, Ukraine braces to launch counter-attack


Quentin Sommerville reports from the Donbas front line as Ukraine tries to seize the initiative from Russia.



www.bbc.com

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## special ed (Sep 1, 2022)

Regarding the Chinese interest in Vladivostok, and since archaeologists "may" have found indications that Chinese explorers visited what is now the California coast centuries ago, could President Eleven look to California when finished with reclaiming Russian land? Don't forget I mentioned in February that Putler may want Alaska back while those here thought the idea funny.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting piece of journalism. Possibility of Ukraine also launching attacks eastwards:


Ukraine needs to keep the Russians in the east busy, lest they redeploy to reinforce Kherson. But big kudos to Ukraine and its supporters if the UAF has sufficient forces to launch offensives in both places.

I wonder if the Russians are thinking of launching another attack from Belarus towards Kyiv. It won't go any better than the last time, but it would distract UAF forces from the Kherson offensive. With the UAF on the offensive elsewhere and the Belarus border seemingly quiet, the north of Ukraine must be lightly defended by now.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

special ed said:


> Regarding the Chinese interest in Vladivostok, and since archaeologists "may" have found indications that Chinese explorers visited what is now the California coast centuries ago, could President Eleven look to California when finished with reclaiming Russian land? Don't forget I mentioned in February that Putler may want Alaska back while those here thought the idea funny.


I just trolled an Orc asking for his opinion on Vladivostok being Chinese turf!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They should be able to have answers in a day or so, going by their recent assassination investigation.
> View attachment 684852


It was probably that woman and her daughter again.
She most likely dropped her Azov Battalion ID papers again, too.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 1, 2022)

Be sure to note the teddy bear along for the fight.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> He lost his balance as a result of too many opinions confusing his True Direction and led him off the path of Russky Mir.

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## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What is a militarily exhausted and prestige-weakened Russia going to do when China starts pushing its claims on Vladivostok and area?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting...

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## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)

Putin pays tribute to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev but won't attend his funeral


Russian President Vladimir Putin has paid tribute to Mikhail Gorbachev but will not attend the late former Soviet leader's funeral, a decision reflecting the Kremlin's ambivalence about Mr Gorbachev's legacy.




www.abc.net.au

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 1, 2022)

What a "classy" guy

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

Russia sure knows how to make dead people look good.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Be sure to note the teddy bear along for the fight.



I posted this same video earlier, "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." but in hindsight I wonder if it's actual footage of anything more than a training flight. I noticed our man firing two AAMs at once... is that SOP? Seems a waste.


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## Dimlee (Sep 1, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> China has put in 'historical' territorial claims against around 21 different countries including Russia (140,000 sq km's including Vladivostok), all of Vietnam,
> both North and South Korea, Northern Laos, North Eastern India, the Spratley Islands, Taiwan of course, Islands off Japan including at one stage, Okinawa
> and so on. There is also the claim to the whole of the South China Sea which goes against all international treaties, agreements etc.
> 
> ...


Vladivostok, etc... It's interesting to know that from all "unequal treaties" imposed on China in the XIX-XX centuries only those that were signed with Russian Empire are still valid. And Russian Federation pretends to be the one and only heir to that Empire. Just saying...

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## Dimlee (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I posted this same video earlier, "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." but in hindsight I wonder if it's actual footage of anything more than a training flight. I noticed our man firing two AAMs at once... is that SOP? Seems a waste.


Isn't he firing HARMS? That white thing with the yellow band seen under the wing just seconds earlier.

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## blueskies (Sep 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Yes, when Kremlin's propaganda outlets brag about the hypersonic weapon in service, usually they mean Kinzhal - ballistic Iskander modified for aerial launch. They call it hyper-sonic because it exceeds Mach 5... As the original Iskander, as most, if not all, other ballistic missiles, starting with German A-4(V-2) and including Tochka-U which is still being used by Ukrainian Army.


Then why is the USA referring to it as a hypersonic? Is it just an attempt to get more money for US hypersonics?

""They've just launched their hypersonic missile because it's the only thing they can get through with absolute certainty," Biden said. "As you all know, it's a consequential weapon but with the same warhead on it as any other launched missile. It doesn't make that much difference except it's almost impossible to stop it. There's a reason they're using it.""



Biden confirms Russia used hypersonic missile in Ukraine: 'It's almost impossible to stop it'

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## Dimlee (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They should be able to have answers in a day or so, going by their recent assassination investigation.
> View attachment 684852


Ukrainians did that. Case closed.

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## Dimlee (Sep 1, 2022)

Good article. About Kherson and else.
I don't share the optimism of the author but his logic is flawless, in my humble opinion.








Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine


The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), August 23, 2022; a…




realcontextnews.com

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## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)

Australian supplied guns in action:














Source: Vasyl Myroshnychenko, Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia and New Zealand

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I posted this same video earlier, "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." but in hindsight I wonder if it's actual footage of anything more than a training flight. I noticed our man firing two AAMs at once... is that SOP? Seems a waste.


This article explains why the need to fire two HARMS at once.


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## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)



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## Glider (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine needs to keep the Russians in the east busy, lest they redeploy to reinforce Kherson. But big kudos to Ukraine and its supporters if the UAF has sufficient forces to launch offensives in both places.
> 
> I wonder if the Russians are thinking of launching another attack from Belarus towards Kyiv. It won't go any better than the last time, but it would distract UAF forces from the Kherson offensive. With the UAF on the offensive elsewhere and the Belarus border seemingly quiet, the north of Ukraine must be lightly defended by now.


I just hope that the Ukraine don't overreach themselves

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 1, 2022)

I would like to donate a shell to the cause. Cant afford an A-10. Why isnt there a site where i can order one with my name on it. Bet you quite a few dollars i am not the only one.







"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."


Be sure to note the teddy bear along for the fight. I posted this same video earlier, "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." but in hindsight I wonder if it's actual footage of anything more than a training flight. I noticed our man firing two AAMs...



ww2aircraft.net

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I would like to donate a shell to the cause. Cant afford an A-10. Why isnt there a site where i can order one with my name on it. Bet you quite a few dollars i am not the only one.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'd pay to have one messaged "Here's a big kiss from the G-man."


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## Snautzer01 (Sep 1, 2022)

Come to think of ,why not sponsor a HIMAR salvo. If it hits a bridge you get half of enty. Ammo dump... Jackpot twice the enty. But you can only spend it on other attacks. 
I'm game.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 1, 2022)

I'd pay to have one messaged "It blows doesnt it."

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## Zipper730 (Sep 1, 2022)

I really don't like to delve into religious matters, but it's pertinent to this: Apparently the Pope has declared that we're starting to see the outbreak of World War III in piecemeal.

While this may/may not have a connection to the former, the Pope has ordered all Vatican entities to transfer their funds into the Vatican bank, which seems rather odd. Has this ever happened before?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> This article explains why the need to fire two HARMS at once.


Which article?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I really don't like to delve into religious matters, but it's pertinent to this: Apparently the Pope has declared that we're starting to see the outbreak of World War III in piecemeal.
> 
> While this may/may not have a connection to the former, the Pope has ordered all Vatican entities to transfer their funds into the Vatican bank, which seems rather odd. Has this ever happened before?



Not sure I see the Pope as any authority on geopolitics.

As far as Vatican finances are concerned, I know little about any precedents for this one way or the other.

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## drgondog (Sep 1, 2022)

Hmm - I wonder if Putin and Russia were schrewd enough to game plan the Ukraine Special Project into a calculated mobilization of NATO and disastrous embargo's that only strengthened the Ruble, and sytematically attack the Eurodollar (and US currency dominance). By Russia Central Bank valuation of gold pegged to oil as well as driving the cost of crude and natural gas globally - and shutting off fertilizer supplies - he has set the stage for a.) economic disaster in Europe, b.) massive price escalation forcing citizens to eat or freeze, c.) shut off Germany entirely across all economic sectors which will probably collapse the EU.

Meanwhile our weapons industry futrures are soaring with DoD donations of advanced weaponry from our existing readiness inventory, dumping $Billions into replenishing inventory and advanced R&D.

Our (US) Energy Grid is heavy orange alert heading to red, with a little relief due to heavy rains in last two weeks - 100 food processing plants have been destroyed, CA passed a law that Independent truckers amy no longer operate in CA all while our supply chain are toast from west coast port and food distribution constipation. 

Am I reading this wrong?

Add Green zealots carrying the banner of zero carbon balance by focing farmers off diesel, onto organic with no transition grace, masive inflation, China committed to taking Taiwan, yet another bio disaster in the next best Covid/Monkeypox/whatever - to try to force mask and shot mandates.

Whatever could go wrong?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 1, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Hmm - I wonder if Putin and Russia were schrewd enough to game plan the Ukraine Special Project into a calculated mobilization of NATO and disastrous embargo's that only strengthened the Ruble, and sytematically attack the Eurodollar (and US currency dominance). By Russia Central Bank valuation of gold pegged to oil as well as driving the cost of crude and natural gas globally - and shutting off fertilizer supplies - he has set the stage for a.) economic disaster in Europe, b.) massive price escalation forcing citizens to eat or freeze, c.) shut off Germany entirely across all economic sectors which will probably collapse the EU.
> 
> Meanwhile our weapons industry futrures are soaring with DoD donations of advanced weaponry from our existing readiness inventory, dumping $Billions into replenishing inventory and advanced R&D.
> 
> ...



You've been wearing that tinfoil hat and spending too much time in your apocalypse shelter again, haven't you? I warned you about that. Take the hat off, step out of the shelter, and enjoy the sunshine a little.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You've been wearing that tinfoil hat and spending too much time in your apocalypse shelter again, haven't you? I warned you about that. Take the hat off, step out of the shelter, and enjoy the sunshine a little.


But, sunshine is _radiation!!!!!_

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## GrauGeist (Sep 1, 2022)

Oh California is reaping the whirlwind from that new law making independent trucking illegal - they either have to sign on with a union approved trucking company, operate or of state or sell their truck.

With a stroke of a pen, 70,000 livelihoods were eliminated and our store shelves are showing it.

In regards to Russia, I feel that Putin's folly will have long term effects across the board and it won't be in Moscow's favor.
Europe is working on alternate energy sources, prospective Russian military hardware buyers will be shopping elsewhere, global corporate investors have pulled out for greener (safer) pastures and the list goes on.

Some have said that Russia's economy is stronger than ever, but with sanctions freezing their global buying power and blocking their access to much needed imports ranging from raw materials to tech components for manufacturing, I don't see how this is possible.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

I'm no economist but I think the ruble is artificially strong which is causing inflation in Russia. However, the Russian economy is heavily tied to oil. Russia is selling its product at a discount. When the price of oil goes down Russia is in serious trouble. If Europe caves, the price of might go down until Putin wants another piece of Novo Rus. Europe realizes it made a pact with the devil. 
Sunshine does go well with a nice chemtrail, though.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 1, 2022)

Tangently related to the topic, I bought a NAFO morale patch for my olive drab ball cap. Proceeds to the Georgian Legion.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> But, sunshine is _radiation!!!!!_



But it's all-natural, nay organic, even. Must be good for you, right?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Hmm - I wonder if Putin and Russia were schrewd enough to game plan the Ukraine Special Project into a calculated mobilization of NATO and disastrous embargo's that only strengthened the Ruble, and sytematically attack the Eurodollar (and US currency dominance). By Russia Central Bank valuation of gold pegged to oil as well as driving the cost of crude and natural gas globally - and shutting off fertilizer supplies - he has set the stage for a.) economic disaster in Europe, b.) massive price escalation forcing citizens to eat or freeze, c.) shut off Germany entirely across all economic sectors which will probably collapse the EU.
> 
> Meanwhile our weapons industry futrures are soaring with DoD donations of advanced weaponry from our existing readiness inventory, dumping $Billions into replenishing inventory and advanced R&D.
> 
> ...



The cost/benefit sheet is relative and cuts both ways. At the same time Putin may be harming the European and American economies, he's also frittering away what military strength his nation has, and his action has engendered sanctions which will seriously impede rebuilding that strength.

I ain't gonna touch the political points you've raised. But even though Russia is weathering sanctions fairly well so far, they still are eating seed-corn. Where will their replacement tanks and aircraft come from with sanctions in place? They've already shut down or dramatically reduced tank production at their two main plants. Airplanes? Crimeny, they've had problems rebuilding their air force even before this invasion brought on sanctions.

I don't agree that they're driving the pricing of oil. This war has obviously had an effect on it, but in the last month we've seen a healthy drop in $/bbl, and the Russians will actually be hurting from this because as prices drop, so too will the subpar pricing of Russian oil bought by India and China drop, as I'm pretty sure it's pegged as a percentage of market value. That will act to reduce Russian national income even as they must now pay more for imports to the bootleggers working that market.


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## Jabberwocky (Sep 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I do wonder how China is affording its massive military expansion. It’s not as if they can sell debt to the West, and we’re pulling a lot of offshore consumer goods manufacturing to elsewhere.



Because their economy has been growing at an average of 7% or 8% p/a over the past decade (compared to 2% in the US) and they've been running consistent current account surpluses for the past 20 years (2020 being the exception). So, they've got the money to do so.

China's official military spending was a little more than USD215 billion in 2019. That's less than a third of US official military spending of USD745 billion in 2019.

China has been spending LESS on its military (proportional to GDP) in the last decade than it did in the 1990s - at least officially. In the past decade, Chinese spending on its military has averaged somewhere between 1.5% and 1.8% of GDP. That's down from around 2% in the 1990s. In comparison, the US military budget was 3.1% of GDP in 2021. 

Of course, 'official' numbers aren't the full story. Lots of Chinese spending on their military gets disguised as funding in other sectors. That's true of other nations as well but China takes it to another level. If you include military-aligned spending such as internal policing, state security apparatus/intelliegence and investment in dual-use R&D, you can increase total spending by anywhere from 25% to 33%.

China's armed forced budget is probably somewhere around USD260 to USD290 billion. That's still just over a third of US spending, for an economy that's 70% of its size (and catching up).

Here's an irony for you: If China was a NATO member it wouldn't have been meeting the 2% GDP spending target, so Donald Trump _would have been complaining that it wasn't spending enough._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But it's all-natural, nay organic, even. Must be good for you, right?



Right -- cyanide too is organic.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Until about a year ago I also looked at an NZ site but they have gone all waka and now insist on putting as many neoMaori words in every article as they can get away with and that just makes their articles unreadable.



I have noticed this is increasing, but it is worth stating that earlier in the 20th Century, speaking Maori in public was banned and schools were not able to teach it until the 1970s, which means hearing it intermixed with English is still not common in public media in New Zealand. Race relations have moved on a bit, but there is still work to do...

Carry on, comrades...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

I don't get the antagonism against inclusivity myself. So I've got to learn a few words -- it's not a big ask, to me.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 1, 2022)

This interesting daily vid suggests that there are 28,000 Russians now stuck on the wrong side of the Dnepier River. Also suggested is that encouraging Russia to reinforce this trap was a reason for Ukraine’s strong signalling and announcements that an offensive on Kherson was soon to happen.



And with much of the Russian army thus trapped, the UAF can move on the East.









In the east, Ukraine braces to launch counter-attack - BBC News


Quentin Sommerville reports from the Donbas front line as Ukraine tries to seize the initiative from Russia.




www.bbc.com

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 1, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Because their economy has been growing at an average of 7% or 8% p/a over the past decade (compared to 2% in the US) and they've been running consistent current account surpluses for the past 20 years (2020 being the exception). So, they've got the money to do so.
> 
> China's official military spending was a little more than USD215 billion in 2019. That's less than a third of US official military spending of USD745 billion in 2019.
> 
> ...


We don't mind if our geopolitical rivals spend less on their militaries.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

China is spending more than you think. For one thing, wages aren't quite as high as in the West. Their employee safety regulations may be a little less stringent as well. China saves a bunch on R&D by just appropriating Western tech.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 1, 2022)

I mentioned earlier that I suspected that the Ukraine military was taking advantage of the media and was acting along the lines of Operation Fortitude.

Since Putin is working with Hitler's playbook, it would make sense that he'd fall for the same ruse...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I mentioned earlier that I suspected that the Ukraine military was taking advantage of the media and was acting along the lines of Operation Fortitude.
> 
> Since Putin is working with Hitler's playbook, it would make sense that he'd fall for the same ruse...



And the other the other thing is that mounting the threat of a credible attack apart from one's main thrust -- even without the deception you're writing about -- is very useful as a feint. Though your post does have me wondering if they've got dummy tanks/AFVs etc to mess with photo-recon.


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## at6 (Sep 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Russia sure knows how to make dead people look good.


So that's how Putin keeps going.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

I hope the Ukrainians can break the hinge between the southern and the eastern fronts, which seems to me to be their goal. There's apparently 30,000+ Russian troops on the west side of the Dneiper, and the three major bridges are unusable for unit resupply, too. Both the strategic and the operational possibilities would be beckoning to me, no doubt.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 1, 2022)

Read an interesting piece on the recent history of the Russian aircraft industry under Putin.

I didn't know this but since Putin has been in charge a committee now controls what is researched and built by the various
manufacturers.

The committee or board of control is made up of non air industry members - more political probably so they have been playing
it safe and authorising more of the same for years. Sound familiar to anyone who has been involved in the industry. If it does it
probably won't be a problem to see where this has gone.

The prime example given was the SU-57. Still going nowhere after years of development while older types were still being
produced with little in the way of upgrades. 

Set a committee to design a horse and you get a camel ?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Having aviators not represented on that board is planning to fail.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope the Ukrainians can break the hinge between the southern and the eastern fronts, which seems to me to be their goal. There's apparently 30,000+ Russian troops on the west side of the Dneiper, and the three major bridges are unusable for unit resupply, too. Both the strategic and the operational possibilities would be beckoning to me, no doubt.


Also, with the Russians massed in one area with no real maneuvering room (except to fall back), is a recipe for disaster.

Get the arty working long and start walking it in.

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## Crimea_River (Sep 1, 2022)

Can you find the 5th pig?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I ain't gonna touch the political points you've raised.



Thank you lord…


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## MiTasol (Sep 1, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> I have noticed this is increasing, but it is worth stating that earlier in the 20th Century, speaking Maori in public was banned and schools were not able to teach it until the 1970s, which means hearing it intermixed with English is still not common in public media in New Zealand. Race relations have moved on a bit, but there is still work to do...
> 
> Carry on, comrades...



Yep that stunk but in those days there were six very distinct Maori languages. 

Now there is only one and it is full of words that the old Maori would never understand because the items they identify never existed in those days. It is apparent that the controllers of the Neo-Maori language would rather invent a new word that means nothing outside Maori rather than use the word(s) that most other languages use for the same item. Eg email is email in most languages that use the Roman alphabet. Naturally the French use something different but what would you expect from them. I am guessing here but seeing they have invented a Maori word for passport I expect that they invented one for email as well.

Being different for the sake of being different is what can best be described as arogant petty barstardry and does nothing for international relations. And yes the Maori are no different to the Yanks on that (Aluminium in 180+ languages and Aluminum in one, metre in 180+ languages and meter in one - etc).


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## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Yep that stunk but in those days there were six very distinct Maori languages.
> 
> Now there is only one and it is full of words that the old Maori would never understand because the items they identify never existed in those days. It is apparent that the controllers of the Neo-Maori language would rather invent a new word that means nothing outside Maori rather than use the word(s) that most other languages use for the same item. Eg email is email in most languages that use the Roman alphabet. Naturally the French use something different but what would you expect from them. I am guessing here but seeing they have invented a Maori word for passport I expect that they invented one for email as well.
> 
> Being different for the sake of being different is what can best be described as arogant petty barstardry and does nothing for international relations. And yes the Maori are no different to the Yanks on that (Aluminium in 180+ languages and Aluminum in one, metre in 180+ languages and meter in one - etc).


You guys will get it right eventually.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Also, with the Russians massed in one area with no real maneuvering room (except to fall back), is a recipe for disaster.
> 
> Get the arty working long and start walking it in.



Right. Build a shoulder on the Ukrainian left flank, and then use the exposed positions of the Russians against them in the south.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Also, with the Russians massed in one area with no real maneuvering room (except to fall back), is a recipe for disaster.
> 
> Get the arty working long and start walking it in.



... along with the occasional time-on-target on any retreating units ...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You guys will get it right eventually.



I very much doubt it. Indeed, I sincerely hope I don't...ever.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Which article?


Upssss.

Forgot to paste it.

This one:









Ukraine’s MiG-29s Shown Firing U.S. AGM-88 Missiles In Stunning Cockpit Video


For the first time, video has emerged showing Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters firing AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles in combat.




www.thedrive.com

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## at6 (Sep 2, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Can you find the 5th pig?



I expected the fifth pig to be a "War Bride". In the end it turned to be more appropriate.


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## Snautzer01 (Sep 2, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Can you find the 5th pig?



That will be bacon i would pass because of yukkie.
Now that is a sentence first on this board i think.

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## blueskies (Sep 2, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Hmm - I wonder if Putin and Russia were schrewd enough to game plan the Ukraine Special Project into a calculated mobilization of NATO and disastrous embargo's that only strengthened the Ruble, and sytematically attack the Eurodollar (and US currency dominance). By Russia Central Bank valuation of gold pegged to oil as well as driving the cost of crude and natural gas globally - and shutting off fertilizer supplies - he has set the stage for a.) economic disaster in Europe, b.) massive price escalation forcing citizens to eat or freeze, c.) shut off Germany entirely across all economic sectors which will probably collapse the EU.
> 
> Meanwhile our weapons industry futrures are soaring with DoD donations of advanced weaponry from our existing readiness inventory, dumping $Billions into replenishing inventory and advanced R&D.
> 
> ...


This seems like a very distinct possibility. Perhaps it wasn't the original plan but now this is what the Russians may be doing. Essentially sit back and use up their stores of soviet era shells and arty to annihilate ukrainians in trenches while minimally exposing themselves. This forces the US/Nato to pour more and more support into the country, much of which is useless in a trench war, while Russia turns the energy tap off to the EU to boil the continent in discontent. A sort of Verdun but on a much larger and more consequential scale.

Already there are lots of signs of instability in Europe, and the supply of aid from the EU has pretty much dried up completely. The Italian elections in a few weeks will be a real preview of whats to come. Terribly interesting times ahead.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> That will be bacon i would pass because of yukkie.
> Now that is a sentence first on this board i think.


Wouldn't even be suitable for pork scratchings.

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## ThomasP (Sep 2, 2022)

Supply to Ukraine from European NATO nations is ongoing, as it is from the US and other nations around the world.

The UAF engaged in combat within Ukraine have absorbed nearly all that they can at this point in time, aside from the ongoing need for expendables and a trickle of replacement personnel and equipment. There is a continuing small but significant indigenous build-up of strength via expansion of existing units, and the addition of some newly formed units.

Enough small arms, web gear, and personal kit (including protective vests) for over 500,000 troops has been transferred but not yet deployed within Ukraine.

The numbers of Javelin and NLAW sent to Ukraine have been highly publicized, but there have been even more AT-4 and LAW type weapons sent. At one point about 2 months ago it was reported that there were 10x AT weapons for every operational tank in the entire Russian army.

Additional tranches of supply are being worked up, with the amounts being decided on by NATO or by individual nations alone and/or in concert with NATO, based on what the countries feel they can readily afford (both in cost and in terms of maintaining operational capability). Contracts for additional production of many of the types of munitions being supplied have been let. Some of the manufacturers here in the US have been running expanded and/or additional shifts for several months.

Training of units of varying size is being performed at dispersed sites around NATO and in other countries. This includes additional heavy equipment like HIMARS/MLRS and the new NASAMS units. Most sites are not being publicized, although a few like the infantry and artillery training bases in the UK have had some press coverage. Entire combat maneuver units are being trained and worked up to operational status, as well as the accompanying logistic and maintenance support units. SOF and other specialized units are also being trained.

As I mentioned upthread, Ukrainian pilots are already being trained on Western airframes.

There is a mostly quiet but amazingly solid methodology being employed in the planning and implementation of the build-up of the UAF - in concert with the effects of sanctions on the ability of the RF to produce - the primary focus being to keep Ukrainian manpower losses to a minimum while accomplishing the goal of reducing the RF military to the point where they are either unable or unwilling to continue the war.

Whether things will work out as we would like them to, or not, is of course open to question - but I would not go placing any bets against Ukraine etal just yet.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Since Putin is working with Hitler's playbook, it would make sense that he'd fall for the same ruse...


If Putin had his own von Manstein in command (assuming that, unlike Hitler he listened to the man) he’d have rolled up Ukraine or just avoided the whole enterprise.


ThomasP said:


> Supply to Ukraine from European NATO nations is ongoing, as it is from the US and other nations around the world.


Great info. By the 18 month anniversary of the invasion in July 2023 Ukraine will have one of the best equipped, trained and combat-blooded militaries in the world.

When this war done by 2024, and the UAF is fielding F-16s, Abrams, Patriots (or equivalent) and more HIMARS, Russia will be thanking their good fortune plus Ukraine’s democratic principles and its EU/NATO commitments/aspirations that Kiyv doesn’t march on Moscow.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

Interesting development on the sanctions front. The G7 has agreed a cap on Russian fuel costs (details from BBC):

_Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers have announced they plan to implement a price cap on Russian oil.
The cap will help fight inflation while delivering a blow to Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says.
The oil price cap plan is "specifically designed" to reduce Russian revenues and its ability to "fund its war of aggression", according to the agreement.
The full document from G7 finance ministers also says it is designed to limit the "impact of Russia's war on global energy prices, particularly for low and middle-income countries".
It claims this will work by "only permitting service providers to continue to do business related to Russian seaborne oil and petroleum products sold at or below the price cap".
This will be achieved, the document says, by preventing shipping companies from transporting Russian oil via the sea unless it has been purchased at below the price cap.
There is no detail yet at what level the cap will be set, but the document says this will be "publicly communicated in a clear and transparent manner"._


Of course, Russia doesn't like it and had already threatened responses before the G7 decision:

_Before the G7 announcement today, the Kremlin warned that imposing a price cap on Russian oil exports would trigger Russian retaliation.
"Companies that impose a price cap will not be among the recipients of Russian oil," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
The aim of the price ceiling is to curb Russian oil profits that are helping to finance Russia's war in Ukraine.
"The adoption of such a decision will lead to significant destabilisation of the oil markets," Peskov warned.
World prices for oil and gas have soared amid energy shortages linked to the Ukraine war - although the price of oil has fallen since its June peak.
The EU plans to impose an embargo on Russian crude oil from 5 December. It will apply to crude shipped by tanker and most piped supplies.
China and India - major trading partners for Russia - may not follow G7 policy on Russian oil, analysts say. They have not joined the Western sanctions targeting Russia._

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## Denniss (Sep 2, 2022)

Is there anything known about new production of soviet-type artillery/tank ammunition for the Ukraine?
I assume some companies in the former Warsaw Pact states are still able to produce them?

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## SaparotRob (Sep 2, 2022)

I think, based on anecdotal evidence, just about everyone in the west is gearing up for NATO standards and ditching their Soviet equipment. 
That is an interesting point you brought up. I’m curious about that now myself.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

Excerpts from an opinion piece I read this morning:

_With Ukrainian forces now on the offensive seeking to push back Russian invaders and even reclaim territory, some are likely to wonder how a smaller force can leverage the tactical proficiency, weaponry, and combined arms maneuver techniques necessary to prevail.

Former Operation Iraqi Freedom infantry task force commander Lt. Col. Scott Rutter (ret.), who helped lead the 3rd Infantry Division's famous assault on Baghdad in 2003, offered some key insights on this issue during an interview with the National Interest. Rutter's unit engaged and destroyed units of the Iraqi Republican Guard during those now famous battles at the Baghdad airport.

"The counteroffensive needs to be focused on the kinetic fight but also on [the] identification of high-value targets. Reconnaissance is key," Rutter said. "Overmatch against tanks may not be possible, but it is not just tanks but also the effects of reconnaissance and precision," he added.

[...]

Rutter added that alongside the need for targeted precision, fast-arriving intelligence information, and reconnaissance support, there will still be a need to "generate effects" and "break up the synchronization of Russian forces by going after their logistics, command and control, and their collection assets. [The] destruction of a Russian brigade command post may be more valuable than destroying twelve tanks."

[...]

Certainly, Ukraine has some of the mechanized vehicles, tanks, and infantry carriers it needs. Kyiv has also received tactical vehicles and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles (MRAPs) from the United States and its allies. With effective reconnaissance and the ability to target and destroy Russian command and control nodes from stand-off distances, Ukraine may well have success re-taking territory._









How Ukraine Can Retake Lost Ground in Kherson


With effective reconnaissance and the ability to target and destroy Russian command and control nodes from stand-off distances, Ukraine may well have success re-taking territory.




nationalinterest.org

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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

Interesting thought-piece, Thump, although I disagree with a few of Rutter's comments. Most specifically, a focus on purely kinetic fires is the stuff of last century. You need to integrate kinetic and non-kinetic effects to deliver maximum impact. Use of non-kinetic fires (e.g. EW) can disrupt adversary comms and sensors without actually having to locate the key HVT.

If you're going up against a more numerous adversary, then you need to bring every capability to the table. Dislocating his C3 hinders his ability to respond and sows/exacerbates morale problems among the adversary force because they can't call in supporting fires, lack situational awareness of what's happening around them, and run greater risk of being surprised (because they can only act at the limit of their organic sensors, often the Mk.I Eyeball.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting thought-piece, Thump, although I disagree with a few of Rutter's comments. Most specifically, a focus on purely kinetic fires is the stuff of last century. You need to integrate kinetic and non-kinetic effects to deliver maximum impact. Use of non-kinetic fires (e.g. EW) can disrupt adversary comms and sensors without actually having to locate the key HVT.



Agreed, I think he gives the information/EW angle short-shrift. On the plus side, the Ukrainians seem pretty talented at that too, so it doesn't really change the article's conclusion. I also think it understates the urgent need to speed up delivery of equipment and weapons, even as the offensive has apparently already started.

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## GTX (Sep 2, 2022)

Ukraine accuses Russia of preventing complete UN assessment of power plant


Ukraine's state nuclear company Energoatom says it will be difficult for the United Nations nuclear watchdog to make an impartial assessment of the situation at a Russian-held Ukrainian nuclear plant due to Russian interference.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Sep 2, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I would like to donate a shell to the cause. Cant afford an A-10. Why isnt there a site where i can order one with my name on it. Bet you quite a few dollars i am not the only one.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Here you are.

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## Dimlee (Sep 2, 2022)

GTX said:


> Australian supplied guns in action:
> 
> View attachment 684863
> 
> ...



27 Australians were killed by a Russian missile in 2014.








Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Dimlee (Sep 2, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Supply to Ukraine from European NATO nations is ongoing, as it is from the US and other nations around the world.
> 
> The UAF engaged in combat within Ukraine have absorbed nearly all that they can at this point in time, aside from the ongoing need for expendables and a trickle of replacement personnel and equipment. There is a continuing small but significant indigenous build-up of strength via expansion of existing units, and the addition of some newly formed units.
> 
> ...


Good commentary, thank you.👍
By the way, about training... Numbers just released.
_"over 4,000 persons trained in 14 countries...
2,000 - tube artillery, 500 - rocket artillery, 500 - anti-air defence, almost 200 - maintenance of anti-tank weapons, almost 200 - maintenance of radar systems."_

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## GTX (Sep 2, 2022)

Finland to provide additional military aid to Ukraine


On Thursday, the Finnish authorities decided to provide Ukraine with a new, already eighth, package of military assistance, the Finnish Defense Ministry said in a statement.




en.interfax.com.ua

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## drgondog (Sep 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting development on the sanctions front. The G7 has agreed a cap on Russian fuel costs (details from BBC):
> 
> _Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers have announced they plan to implement a price cap on Russian oil.
> The cap will help fight inflation while delivering a blow to Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says.
> ...


Doesn't mean a thing to Russia so long as India and China refuse sanctions and ignore embargo - which they wll continue to do. There is a global political element/faction determined to end fossil fuels imbedded in G7.

The People in those (and our) countries would love a 'cap' on fuel prices but how exactly CAN G7 implement a price cap? Sanctions have not - an will not work. Folks are buying and hoarding coal for the upcoming winter. Euro companies need natural gas and diesel fuel. Think adequate supplies of natural gas will be available in EU if not supplemented by Russia?

Think OPEC is in line with price caps?

Looks like a Kabuki dance to me.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Doesn't mean a thing to Russia so long as India and China refuse sanctions and ignore embargo - which they wll continue to do. There is a global political element/faction determined to end fossil fuels imbedded in G7.
> 
> The People in those (and our) countries would love a 'cap' on fuel prices but how exactly CAN G7 implement a price cap? Sanctions have not - an will not work. Folks are buying and hoarding coal for the upcoming winter. Euro companies need natural gas and diesel fuel. Think adequate supplies of natural gas will be available in EU if not supplemented by Russia?
> 
> ...



'Fraid I disagree with you. China and India may ignore the embargo and refuse sanctions....but there's no way they can make up for the 2 million barrels per day that went to Europe via dedicated pipelines before the invasion. China and India can take some of Russia's oil but they can't take that amount. Europe absolutely will have a terrible winter this year, and they almost certainly will have to take Russian oil and gas. However, this isn't a binary "all or nothing" situation. If Europe can reduce its demand on Russian oil and gas, then it reduces Moscow's leverage. The less oil and gas that Europe uses, the more Russia will have to find alternate customers which (a) don't really exist, and (b) requires a huge increase in ocean-going tankers to transport the fuel. 

I suspect the G7 cap is as much about seeking to reduce cost impacts on domestic energy users than an attempt at tweaking Putler's nose. I share some skepticism about the likelihood of success...but doing nothing guarantees that average citizens will suffer. OPEC certainly can make its own decisions but its member nations also want to be perceived as being on the side of right, even if they aren't willing to outright jump on the sanctions bandwagon. OPEC intransigence and profiteering may achieve some short-term financial gain but it will prove extremely damaging in the long term...and OPEC can't ignore the "futures" aspect of business. 

I'd like to understand the rationale for your statement "sanctions have not and will not work." What's your definition for sanctions actually working? Also, what's your evidence that they aren't working? 

Sanctions aren't a silver bullet that will bring Russia to the negotiating table, complete with having to negotiate from a position of weakness. However, it seems pretty clear that sanctions ARE working to the extent that they can. They've effectively isolated Russia from its biggest markets, they've prevented the transfer of technology, and hindered Russia's ability to manufacture replacement weapon systems for the war they started.

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## GTX (Sep 2, 2022)

Russia scraps Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline reopening, stoking European fuel fears


Gazprom, the state-controlled firm with a monopoly on Russian gas exports, says it could not safely restart deliveries until it had fixed an oil leak found in a vital turbine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 2, 2022)

Shocked. Just shocked. Darn shoddy maintenance. Not weaponizing oil at all.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

According to Gazprom, this is what's causing all the problems (Source BBC). They call it an oil leak. Looks to me like someone spilled their morning coffee:

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## buffnut453 (Sep 2, 2022)

European leaders have, unsurprisingly, poured scorn (laced with skepticism) on Russia's claim that an oil leak has closed down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Now Siemens is piling on and calling Moscow's bluff:
_
As we've been reporting, European leaders have cast doubt on Russia's stated reasons for keeping the Nord Stream 1 pipeline closed.
Now Siemens Energy - the German firm that has assisted with maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline - has told Reuters that oil leaks do not normally impact the operation of the turbine.
"Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site. It is a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work," the company said.
"In the past, too, the occurrence of this type of leak has not led to a shutdown of operations.
"Irrespective of this, we have already pointed out several times that there are sufficient other turbines available at the Portovaya compressor station for Nord Stream 1 to operate."_

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## SaparotRob (Sep 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> According to Gazprom, this is what's causing all the problems (Source BBC). They call it an oil leak. Looks to me like someone spilled their morning coffee:
> 
> View attachment 685047


Pepsi Syndrome.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 2, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia scraps Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline reopening, stoking European fuel fears
> 
> 
> Gazprom, the state-controlled firm with a monopoly on Russian gas exports, says it could not safely restart deliveries until it had fixed an oil leak found in a vital turbine.
> ...


Happily not thinking this through, I like the idea of Russia shutting off the gas. Just rip the Band-Aid off in one quick move. Europe may be realizing it shouldn't have made itself energy dependent on Russia. Europeans will be in for a hard time. They will be in for another hard time when Putin decides for a more substantial route into Kaliningrad or the Zaporizhzhia Oblast is Russkiy Mir. If putler plays economic hardball, well, look at who he's up against. Tougher times for all. Less for some, more for others. Russia, however, will really start hurting. Those daily billions Russia makes? Most of that goes to putler via his shrinking circle of oligarchs. Boris and Ludmilla Drunkenskiya aren't going to see any petrodollars. The bucks coming in needed to run the show probably isn't enough either.

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## drgondog (Sep 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> 'Fraid I disagree with you. China and India may ignore the embargo and refuse sanctions....but there's no way they can make up for the 2 million barrels per day that went to Europe via dedicated pipelines before the invasion. China and India can take some of Russia's oil but they can't take that amount. Europe absolutely will have a terrible winter this year, and they almost certainly will have to take Russian oil and gas. However, this isn't a binary "all or nothing" situation. If Europe can reduce its demand on Russian oil and gas, then it reduces Moscow's leverage. The less oil and gas that Europe uses, the more Russia will have to find alternate customers which (a) don't really exist, and (b) requires a huge increase in ocean-going tankers to transport the fuel.
> 
> I suspect the G7 cap is as much about seeking to reduce cost impacts on domestic energy users than an attempt at tweaking Putler's nose. I share some skepticism about the likelihood of success...but doing nothing guarantees that average citizens will suffer. OPEC certainly can make its own decisions but its member nations also want to be perceived as being on the side of right, even if they aren't willing to outright jump on the sanctions bandwagon. OPEC intransigence and profiteering may achieve some short-term financial gain but it will prove extremely damaging in the long term...and OPEC can't ignore the "futures" aspect of business.
> 
> ...


OK to disagree. 2-3X price for Gas and Fuel makes up for reduced deliveries. Russia can afford to a.) not ship fertilizer to US/Europe and b.) Shut Nord down completely. All OPEC has to do to a.) Help Russia, and b.) Help themselves, is to reduce output - which they very much intend to do. Iran and Veneuela will continue to produce. What is G7 going to do? Only agree to a phantom price resulting in zero no deliveries - with winter coming to Northern Europe, US/Canada and UK? Who can sustain daily operations better going forward - Russia or the West?

Setting a cap works how - if Russia, Opec and Venezuela/Iran don't fall in line with the cap? You may have missed the memo but OPEC will have no problem ignoring 'futures' unless Global Demand drops catastrophically (i.e. Great Recession/Depression) and the politicians holding the bag trying to explain their own self destruction on Russia will get lame. Don't get me wrong, I am NOT pro Russia. They simply are holding a better hand in this game of Russian Roulette

Everybody (politicians) 'want to stop inflation' because their PEOPLE are getting crushed - but high cost of fuel is just one link in the supply chain disasters across the globe. For the US the policy decisions to 'let them eat cake and buy EV' by trying to force US Producers out of business by killing drilling permits vital to new production of Natural Gas and crude - while killing coal and nuclear power - has artificially driven US producers away from keeping US self sufficient. 

I made comments about the Grid. Texas is the most important nodes in the US Energy Grid. We almost took the US down when our feeble wind/solar power supply 2% power generation failed 18 mo ago.We have not fortified sufficiently in that timeframe to guarantee successful navigation through the same events. Some of the Americans on this forum have no fundamental understanding of the fuel for the Grid. Gas has largely replaced Coal (which is abundantly in supply but most plants have been shut down). Nuclear is being shut down. Exploration for Natural Gas via Drilling permits have been shut down. There will be zero return to normalcy in Energy grid supply if we have a major catastrophe and have to fire up coal as a backstop. 

Our UK posters may wish to chime in re: Firing up coal power generation in time for winter. Ditto our German friends?

If folks think their monthly energy bill is outrageous, hide and watch a country forced out of gasoline driven transportation into 'light socket charging' when mass EV demand hits the Grid. As quoted in Ghostbusters "Who ya gonna call"?

Farmers and truckers (read food and goods to big cities) are getting crushed with skyrocketing costs to stay in business,.. and those that are still in business will continue to raise prices to each of us. The point is - price reductions have somewhat alleviated the pain but only slowed the inflation trajectory - not reversed it and the big city dwellers will be the first victims of the Perfect Storm. 

Oh I forgot the 'new wave of Pandemics' including son of Covid, Monkeypox, donkey and zebra pox, etc - as an excuse to keep rioters off the streets. 

IMO

I'm pleased to accept the 'tinfoil hat' monicker and delighted that those that feel that way also think their leaders in US, UK, Australia/New Zealand and Canada have 'got this'.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 2, 2022)

I think we need to lay off the politics a bit. There are places better suited for this discussion…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

<edited for respect of the speed-bump posted immediately above. I really should read the entire set of replies before answering any of 'em>

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## nuuumannn (Sep 2, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> in those days there were six very distinct Maori languages.



As determined not specifically by Maori themselves, I might add. Different tribal areas had different dialects that defined where people came from, and there were a lot more than six. It's worth remembering that Maori was only a spoken language, the people themselves never wrote it and expressed themselves through objects and carvings rather than in an alphabet. It is only through English interpretation that Maori in its written form exists, which should tell you something about why it is expressed the way it is these days.



MiTasol said:


> Being different for the sake of being different is what can best be described as arogant petty barstardry and does nothing for international relations. And yes the Maori are no different to the Yanks on that



You might be being a little bit harsh. I am aware of the complications of cultural awareness being driven by societal expectation, but Maori themselves celebrate this simply for the reason I mentioned earlier. Much of the problem you experience comes from the powers-that-be setting the rules (not specifically Maori themselves) in kowtowing to public expectation and doing it as lip service, rather than for any well-meaning actions of righting cultural wrongdoings. The opinions of those who weren't under restriction of how their language evolved over the years have the luxury of criticising how that language gets used in a modern context, but when you have had that subjugation it takes on a whole new meaning and seeing your language emblazoned on public buildings etc means a whole lot more if you were not allowed to speak it when you were growing up. Remember, this stuff happened in our lifetime. 

I do cringe with the use of words that are sensitively described as "transliterating" English words into Maori, but it is no different to Katakana in translating a foreign word into usable text in Japanese language. For example, the Japanese word for windshield on a car is "furanto gurasu" the word for ice cream on a cone is "sofuto skupu ais-kurim". do we hold the same prejudice against the Japanese for creating a whole branch of their language specifically for use of foreign expressions? Also, English? Hmmmm... In the words of the eminently quotable George Dubya Bush "There is no French word for entrepreneur..."

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Happily not thinking this through, I like the idea of Russia shutting off the gas. Just rip the Band-Aid off in one quick move.


Yep. Europe has dealt with much harder shocks than a lack of fuel, such as repairing total destruction in 1945 and reunification at end of the Cold War. Germany and the Euros will overcome this short term mega shock. Meanwhile, Russia can neither easily sell their gas to others nor stop production.



Russia is burning off millions of dollars in gas every day. Here's why

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 2, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Maori themselves celebrate this simply for the reason I mentioned earlier…


Just to try to make some relevance to our topic at hand, throughout their rule, the Russians tried to eradicate Ukraine’s distinct language. Conquerors often understand that to truly conquer another people you must eliminate their language and cultural distinctions, forcing assimilation. That’s exactly what we tried to do in what became Canada to our indigenous people, where we would kidnap their children and force them into Uyghur-like indoctrination camps. But Russia’s invasion has done the exact oppostite, bringing Ukraine’s distinct language and culture to the world’s attention and ignited nationalist sentiment across Ukraine and its diaspora.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But Russia’s invasion has done the exact oppostite, bringing Ukraine’s distinct language and culture to the world’s attention and ignited nationalist sentiment across the Ukraine and its diaspora.



Simply because Ukraine has the means and support from the rest of the world to combat Russian oppression. The Uighurs, Maori, Australian Aboriginals, native Americans etc didn't have Baykar Bayraktars...  Sorry to side track from the discussion, everyone.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Simply because Ukraine has the means and support from the rest of the world to combat Russian oppression. The Uighurs, Maori, Australian Aboriginals, native Americans etc didn't have Baykar Bayraktars...  Sorry to side track from the discussion, everyone.



The big difference is domestic vs international.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The big difference is domestic vs international.



Depends, is the British colonising half the world domestic or international? The difference is timing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Depends, is the British colonising half the world domestic or international? The difference is timing.



Without wanting to sidetrack the thread, there's a difference between a nation doing something inside its own borders, no matter how horrendous, and a nation exporting that to an unwilling neighbor.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 2, 2022)

I may have mentioned this before, but the Cyrillic language is not native to Russia, but Bulgaria (contrary to what rasPutin would have you believe).

It was then adopted by the Kievan Rus dynasty and later adapted by the Russians themselves.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Without wanting to sidetrack the thread, there's a difference between a nation doing something inside its own borders, no matter how horrendous, and a nation exporting that to an unwilling neighbor.



Of course there is, but in the scheme of things it doesn't diminish what happened, which is really the point.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Without wanting to sidetrack the thread, there's a difference between a nation doing something inside its own borders, no matter how horrendous, and a nation exporting that to an unwilling neighbor.


Russia believes Ukraine is inside its own borders.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 2, 2022)

A language professor once told me,
"The difference between a dialect and a language is a national border."

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 2, 2022)

Update on Russian losses.



Russia Has Lost Over 2,000 Tanks Since War Began—Ukraine



In this era of sanctions and lack of Western components, how many new tanks is Russia producing each month now? When will Russia have a replacement 2,000 tanks? And that’s aside from everything else listed as lost so far.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Update on Russian losses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is defeatist talk! You look ill. Perhaps a short stay in a very tall hospital will do you good.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia believes Ukraine is inside its own borders.



The Ukrainians seem to disagree.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Of course there is, but in the scheme of things it doesn't diminish what happened, which is really the point.



Of course not. I'm 1/8 Blackfoot native, and very ignorant of that side of my heritage, precisely because of those "internal issues" which saw that part extirpated. I'm not trying to diminish any suffering, just trying to point out that on a diplomatic level what happens inside borders is very different than what happens across borders.

It's only recently that the UN has started focusing on the plight of the Uighurs, for instance. And who sent troops to Rwanda? That's right, no one. Rohingya? I'm not diminishing anything.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Update on Russian losses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'd be willing to bet replacing 2000 crews is harder than replacing 2000 tanks. Granted many of those crewmen survived, but all the same ... buncha dead specialists, plus you've lost significant unit cohesion if crews are being cobbled together -- that could be a hard hump to march. Those tanks won't go anywhere without crew, and that is the big Russian loss in my mind.

Who will train the replacements?

But you're right: sanctions will significantly retard the ability of the Russian military to reconstitute after this fiasco. It'll be left to Vlad's successor to sort it out.

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## Zipper730 (Sep 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Not sure I see the Pope as any authority on geopolitics.


I thought it was a rather strange statement for the most part.

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## Glider (Sep 3, 2022)

It looks as if the Ukraine TB2 drones are starting to make their presence felt again



Ukraine’s Drones Are Back—And Blowing Up Russian Artillery In The South

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## GrauGeist (Sep 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> It looks as if the Ukraine TB2 drones are starting to make their presence felt again
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s Drones Are Back—And Blowing Up Russian Artillery In The South


And now we can play the Bayraktar song again!

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 3, 2022)

Bayraktar got a new hit song to play.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Update on Russian losses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To be fair, this is according to Ukrainian estimates.

Only 1000 have been visually confirmed Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

so the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Anyway, even if its only 1500, replacing them will be almost as difficult.

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## at6 (Sep 3, 2022)

All that matters is a total Russian failure in the end. I think that Russians will likely cause a melt down if they have to abandon the power plant.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 3, 2022)

Russia had close to 900 T80 and T90 tanks in service a few months ago.

About 3000 T80 are in storage and yet to be upgraded to the latest model with 200 T90 or more in storage as well.

The problem with artillery, tanks, AA launchers and so on is Russia has to have a decent amount in reserve to cover other
possibilities for conflict such as the borders with Finland and Poland among others. This will run things fairly thin as production
is being strangled and doesn't seem to have been very efficient for some time anyway.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> It looks as if the Ukraine TB2 drones are starting to make their presence felt again
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s Drones Are Back—And Blowing Up Russian Artillery In The South


Ukraine has put the name Bayraktar into the minds of millions. General Atomics has to be envious of the brand recognition and attention.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine has put the name Bayraktar into the minds of millions. General Atomics has to be envious of the brand recognition and attention.



Doubtlessly, the best military hardware PR ever.

And:

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## drgondog (Sep 3, 2022)

And so it begins. Price caps don't work well when zero supply offered?






Surprise: Stocks Tumble After Gazprom "Completely Halts" Nord Stream Indefinitely Due To "Unexpected" Leak | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com





and further clouding the move away from G7, with combined resources of Russia, China and India to crush the US dollar (even more than recent Fed moves).

Note - sale of NG to China, China offers to EU. Is EU going to try to set a price cap on China shipments?









The Russian Gold Standard - GoldCore Gold Bullion Dealer


Russia announced a proposal to create a new international gold standard for trading in precious metals. Read more...




news.goldcore.com


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## swampyankee (Sep 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The big difference is domestic vs international.


All those groups were forcibly incorporated, but getting international support was a bit harder when it took months for a letter to get from there to here.

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## swampyankee (Sep 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> A language professor once told me,
> "The difference between a dialect and a language is a national border."


A similar line is "a language is a dialect with an army."

Dialect vs language is fuzzy. The Venetian dialect of Italian is more distinct from the Neapolitan dialect than Danish is from Norwegian

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> And so it begins. Price caps don't work well when zero supply offered?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ok, you need to pick one side of an argument. First you say that the 2-3x increase in fuel costs has offset any reduction in European consumption of Russian fuels, and you criticize the G7 price cap as impractical. Now you're saying that Russia can somehow survive by completely turning off the spigot to Europe? Please explain how? Zero supply means zero payment. At some point, Russia HAS to find external funding to buy its oil and gas. Russia can't just keep covering the costs as that would drive inflation through the roof. You can't make money you don't have without impacting inflation, and the Russian population will quickly feel those effects, just as we are in the west.. 

Russia will likely be forced into a situation where it accepts some funding from Europe or it must get its fuel products to other markets. The problem is those markets don't exist, plus there are tremendous logistical problems changing the existing infrastructure. Most of Russia's exported fuel supply was directed westwards via pipelines. It's a huge effort to flip that over to eastward distribution via tanker vessel. It will cost a lot, it will take a lot of time, and there's no indication that such a move would offset lost European income. In the meantime, Russia has production with nowhere to go. The options are to drastically reduce production, which will impact some of the most important workers in Russia as they get laid off, or for the Russian government to keep funding production to keep people working (that's a very Soviet thing to do....and we see how well that worked out for them). Even if Russia did fund the commercial energy companies just to keep producing. where would they store it all? Trying to store the 2 million barrels of oil a day that went to Europe is no small task and such facilities simply don't exist...so, again, you have to build new storage facilities and pipes to get the fuels there, but all of that investment isn't generating a single ruble for the Russian economy, nor will it be profit-generating once this crisis is resolved. 

Yes, Europe is in an ugly situation and we can all agree that, given hindsight, the European nations were foolish for becoming so dependent on Russian fuels. However, Russia also has limits on what it can do. The collective resources of the west are far better situated to weather a bad winter than is Russia. We've already seen increased shipment of fuels to Europe to build up stockpiles in preparation for winter. Now, that won't be sufficient but it's an indicator of just one workaround that could help offset problems. There may be options for North Sea oil and gas production to increase temporarily. The west has options. They aren't great but then neither are Russia's. This is a game of brinkmanship. It's what world leaders do. At some point, someone will blink...and Russia isn't positioned well to see off all the economic impacts it's currently experiencing. Oil and gas was the BIG economy driver for Russia. Turning it off entirely just makes Russia's situation worse. 

I do want to touch on the 'tinfoil hat' comment for a second. I made that comment in the belief you were joking about the current situation being part of some vast scheme by Putin to bring the west to its knees. It now seems I was mistaken, and you really think that's what's going on here. In order for this to be part of such a complicated plan, it would require every world leader to do exactly what Putin expected at every step through this crisis. Let's take America's first offer to Ukraine, which was to evacuate Zelensky. In order for Putin's grand plan to work, he would need to know (a) that America would make such an offer, and (b) that Zelensky would refuse it. Putin would then need to predict that his armed forces would put up such a crappy showing, and that all of NATO would provide weapons to Ukraine to prolong the fight. World leaders are many things but I've yet to meet anyone, anywhere who could predict the outcome of so many decisions with such accuracy. Now, Putin may have evolved his thinking to use the current situation to try and buckle western economies but he's playing poker with just a pair of deuces (at best). The Russian economy is in already in the tank. Yes, the west is suffering from massive fuel cost increases and relatively rampant inflation...but so are Russian people. The west has levers to offset some of the effects of those problems, including increasing government debt - not a great idea, I accept, but it's a lever that's available to the west. Russia doesn't have those levers. Nobody, not even China, would be willing to underwrite Russia in its current condition.

I'll close with one of your earlier comments:



drgondog said:


> I'm pleased to accept the 'tinfoil hat' monicker and delighted that those that feel that way also think their leaders in US, UK, Australia/New Zealand and Canada have 'got this'.



You're creating an entirely false dichotomy with this statement. Just because I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories about Putin being a puppet-master supreme does NOT mean that I think the west's leaders have "got it right." I've been around the block far too many times to believe that ANY politician of ANY stripe has a single clue about how things work. As noted above, nobody can predict the future. Some very smart people (NOT the politicians, I stress, but the experienced staff who understand these topics in detail) are trying to find ways to pressure Russia to cease its aggression. The options are limited. In all international relationships the ability to act (agency) is hindered by structural issues. For example, NATO can't go schwacking Russia today because it would be counter to the Organization's charter. Equally, Russia can't just print rubles to get out of its economic problems. However, I think the west has done a decent job showing unity in the face of Russia's aggression and finding ways to help Ukraine. 

Given the situation, maybe you could share the benefit of your wisdom to tell the west what we SHOULD be doing? Do we just give up and sacrifice Ukraine? If so, that won't stop Putin because he's that kind of aggressive bully who only responds to action. So...if the west must act, what should we do? What CAN we do more than is already being done. Yes, Putin and his cronies have some freedom of maneuver. They can turn off the pipes for a short time just to show intent but, in the end, they NEED the money coming in from the international community. Russia can't survive without it. I'm sure it will cause a lot of suffering for the average Russian citizen, and I'm truly sorry for that. However, it's always been the case that powerful people who make aggressive decisions have impacts on the general masses. Look at the First and Second World Wars as prime examples.

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## drgondog (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok, you need to pick one side of an argument. First you say that the 2-3x increase in fuel costs has offset any reduction in European consumption of Russian fuels, and you criticize the G7 price cap as impractical. Now you're saying that Russia can somehow survive by completely turning off the spigot to Europe? Please explain how? Zero supply means zero payment. At some point, Russia HAS to find external funding to buy its oil and gas. Russia can't just keep covering the costs as that would drive inflation through the roof. You can't make money you don't have without impacting inflation, and the Russian population will quickly feel those effects, just as we are in the west..
> 
> Russia will likely be forced into a situation where it accepts some funding from Europe or it must get its fuel products to other markets. The problem is those markets don't exist, plus there are tremendous logistical problems changing the existing infrastructure. Most of Russia's exported fuel supply was directed westwards via pipelines. It's a huge effort to flip that over to eastward distribution via tanker vessel. It will cost a lot, it will take a lot of time, and there's no indication that such a move would offset lost European income. In the meantime, Russia has production with nowhere to go. The options are to drastically reduce production, which will impact some of the most important workers in Russia as they get laid off, or for the Russian government to keep funding production to keep people working (that's a very Soviet thing to do....and we see how well that worked out for them). Even if Russia did fund the commercial energy companies just to keep producing. where would they store it all? Trying to store the 2 million barrels of oil a day that went to Europe is no small task and such facilities simply don't exist...so, again, you have to build new storage facilities and pipes to get the fuels there, but all of that investment isn't generating a single ruble for the Russian economy, nor will it be profit-generating once this crisis is resolved.
> 
> ...


Buffnut - one of us will be correct in our assessment. No sense in belaboring the speculation. 

You have very firm beliefs that Russia is in worse shape (economically) than the West. Doesn't Russia action to stop the flow of gas to number one customer shake your beliefs just a little bit? Is that consistent with your certainty that Europe can outlast Russia?

As to a new point you bring up - namely the options to increase debt. Despite debt exploding actions from US Congress, as well as soaring inflation, debt service to an increase in rates at this time (IMO) is a sure path to bancruptcy in the US. That train left long ago as a possible easing of the (my belief) crash coming soon to every household in the West. I have no comment on Euro nation debt, but a catastrohic recession makes the point moot if GDP far lower that debt service. Printing money in the US is a bigger inflation pressure than fuel prices here in US.

I must retire to tin foil hat and drool away.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Buffnut - one of us will be correct in our assessment. No sense in belaboring the speculation.



Actually, we could both be entirely wrong!

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## WARSPITER (Sep 3, 2022)

The average fuel price in the USA went from $2.20 per gallon in November 2020 to $3.49 per gallon in November 2021.
That's around 58% higher. This is before the war on Ukraine even started.

Changes in the amount of fuel used due to lockdowns and the rest of Covid was the main reason as supply chains were
disrupted for over a year. This will even out over time as will inflation etc due to the diverse economies involved. Fuel prices
affect all other prices along the way which also adds to inflation.

Fossil fuels account for over 60% of Russian export income. This gives Russia a real headache as it makes them
exceptionally vulnerable due to a heavy reliance on products which can be competitively sourced elsewhere.

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## Glider (Sep 3, 2022)

This is todays UK MOD summery of the situation

_Since 29 August 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting renewed offensive operations in the south of Ukraine.

One element of this offensive is an ongoing advance on a broad front west of the Dnipro River, focusing on three axes within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.

The operation has limited immediate objectives, but Ukraine's forces have likely achieved a degree of tactical surprise; exploiting poor logistics, administration and leadership in the Russian armed forces.

With fighting also continuing in the Donbas and Kharkiv sectors, a key decision for Russian commanders in coming days will be where to commit any operational reserve force they can generate._

My guess is that this is pretty much exactly what the Ukraine would want it to say. Another way of putting it is

a) Despite the warning that Russia had from public statements and no doubt their Satellite intelligence coverage. Ukraine still managed a tactical surprise. 

b) The attack is being made in at least three area's each of which has made some progress

c) As a result the Ukraine are to a degree influencing where Russia has to deploy it's precious reserves which have only recently been formed.

I strongly suspect that the Ukraine leadership will be well pleased and Russia seriously concerned with this situation. 

Can you imagine what might happen if once the reserves are deployed, Ukraine opens up another front in the Donbas area.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The average fuel price in the USA went from $2.20 per gallon in November 2020 to $3.49 per gallon in November 2021.
> That's around 58% higher. This is before the war on Ukraine even started.
> 
> Changes in the amount of fuel used due to lockdowns and the rest of Covid was the main reason as supply chains were
> ...



And go back to 2008 when gas prices were about as bad as they are today (once you factor in inflation). We weathered that storm. Yes, things are different now...but humans are remarkably resilient and adaptive to changing situations. Maybe we will see US production of fossil fuels increase....stranger things have happened.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And go back to 2008 when gas prices were about as bad as they are today (once you factor in inflation). We weathered that storm. Yes, things are different now...but humans are remarkably resilient and adaptive to changing situations. Maybe we will see US production of fossil fuels increase....stranger things have happened.


Exactly. As the great sage Gump said - "It happens".

The US has 265 billion barrels available and plenty more from Canada. A pipeline from Canada would be handy.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> This is todays UK MOD summery of the situation
> 
> _Since 29 August 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting renewed offensive operations in the south of Ukraine.
> 
> ...



The simple act of forcing Russia to commit reserves is significant. There are questions over the combat readiness of those reserves. One can only hope that these Ukrainian advances turn into a rout. I don't think that will happen...but that doesn't stop me hoping.

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## drgondog (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And go back to 2008 when gas prices were about as bad as they are today (once you factor in inflation). We weathered that storm. Yes, things are different now...but humans are remarkably resilient and adaptive to changing situations. Maybe we will see US production of fossil fuels increase....stranger things have happened.


Increasing domestic US production requires drilling permits - which are witheld. Reserves are the lifeblood of Energy Exploration company valuation of the Balance Sheet. If you're not increasing reserves, you are essentially liquidating. All it would take to change the trajectory is to intall a POTUS that knows fosil fuels are reqired in abundance to sustain (or re-grow) an economy. The Poor and Middle Class can not afford to buy and operate EV.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Increasing domestic US production requires drilling permits - which are witheld. Reserves are the lifeblood of Energy Exploration company valuation of the Balance Sheet. If you're not increasing reserves, you are essentially liquidating. All it would take to change the trajectory is to intall a POTUS that knows fosil fuels are reqired in abundance to sustain (or re-grow) an economy. The Poor and Middle Class can not afford to buy and operate EV.


Or get the current one to pull his head out. But we tread on thin political ice...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Increasing domestic US production requires drilling permits - which are witheld. Reserves are the lifeblood of Energy Exploration company valuation of the Balance Sheet. If you're not increasing reserves, you are essentially liquidating. All it would take to change the trajectory is to intall a POTUS that knows fosil fuels are reqired in abundance to sustain (or re-grow) an economy. The Poor and Middle Class can not afford to buy and operate EV.



This isn't just a political problem. There are 9,000+ approved drilling permits within the US that are not being exercised by the oil companies. This is not an unusual state of affairs; there are often thousands of approved permits that aren't used for a host of reasons. 

The more interesting question is why companies aren't taking up this potential capacity given the obvious greater good that could result? Part of it is pressure from the financial world for higher dividends...which, in turn, is enabled by higher prices for oil. The other challenge is cost of extraction. High prices make it feasible to start drilling at suboptimal sites. However, extra production will likely reduce prices which may result in those suboptimal sites ceasing to be profitable. 

Politicians have certain powers but so do other entities in the global market...and money talks loudest of all.

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## Frog (Sep 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Of course not. I'm 1/8 Blackfoot native, and very ignorant of that side of my heritage, precisely because of those "internal issues" which saw that part extirpated. I'm not trying to diminish any suffering, just trying to point out that on a diplomatic level what happens inside borders is very different than what happens across borders.
> 
> It's only recently that the UN has started focusing on the plight of the Uighurs, for instance. And who sent troops to Rwanda? That's right, no one. Rohingya? I'm not diminishing anything.



For Rwanda, the French under UN mandate, Operation Turquoise june 24, 1994 to try and stop the massacre ; as a reward we were later accused of trying to oppose the RPF.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Increasing domestic US production requires drilling permits - which are witheld. Reserves are the lifeblood of Energy Exploration company valuation of the Balance Sheet. If you're not increasing reserves, you are essentially liquidating. All it would take to change the trajectory is to intall a POTUS that knows fosil fuels are reqired in abundance to sustain (or re-grow) an economy. The Poor and Middle Class can not afford to buy and operate EV.


I believe the bottleneck is not from a lack of drilling but a lack of refineries. I can't remember where I heard this bit of rumor(?) but the U.S. hasn't built a new refinery since the seventies. It may be more profitable for these companies to ship the crude to other nations where it's cheaper to refine. I never paid close action to this detail.

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## drgondog (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This isn't just a political problem. There are 9,000+ approved drilling permits within the US that are not being exercised by the oil companies. This is not an unusual state of affairs; there are often thousands of approved permits that aren't used for a host of reasons.
> 
> The more interesting question is why companies aren't taking up this potential capacity given the obvious greater good that could result? Part of it is pressure from the financial world for higher dividends...which, in turn, is enabled by higher prices for oil. The other challenge is cost of extraction. High prices make it feasible to start drilling at suboptimal sites. However, extra production will likely reduce prices which may result in those suboptimal sites ceasing to be profitable.
> 
> Politicians have certain powers but so do other entities in the global market...and money talks loudest of all.


The drilling permits being witheld are key locations such as Anwahr and Cook Inlet and Gulf - Federal lands. Drilling permits 'not exercised' are well sites not deemed productive on a cost basis compared to other plays. Step out drilling (virgin potential) much riskier than In-field drilling for an existing producing play.

The exploration company examines several variables. One - Risk; Two- Cost (exlore/pre-drill, drill, test, go-no go) produce, deliver to pipeline/carriers (time to market to convert asset to cash); Three (US specific) - compare against other projects for risk weighted ROI; Four -legislative protections for the investment in future. The latter is a strong key in today's political environment. The drivers in Congress and Admin wish to shut down hydrocarbon industry. Period. It IS a political problem.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The simple act of forcing Russia to commit reserves is significant. There are questions over the combat readiness of those reserves. One can only hope that these Ukrainian advances turn into a rout. I don't think that will happen...but that doesn't stop me hoping.


Another concern for Russia, is that while the quality of their new forces are declining, the quality of Ukraine's new forces are improving.

There will come soon (if not already) a tipping point where Russia is going to have to make a decision on how long this "special operation" can go on.

In regards to their strategic reserves across their country's borders - it seems to me that they simply do not have enough to be effective if there is trouble - including their occupied territories in Moldova and Georgia.
There is (or perhaps was) a built up force in the area of the disputed border between China and Russia, particularly in the Amur River region. If Russia draws down that force, how will China respond?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

drgondog said:


> The drilling permits being witheld are key locations such as Anwahr and Cook Inlet and Gulf - Federal lands. Drilling permits 'not exercised' are well sites not deemed productive on a cost basis compared to other plays. Step out drilling (virgin potential) much riskier than In-field drilling for an existing producing play.
> 
> The exploration company examines several variables. One - Risk; Two- Cost (exlore/pre-drill, drill, test, go-no go) produce, deliver to pipeline/carriers (time to market to convert asset to cash); Three (US specific) - compare against other projects for risk weighted ROI; Four -legislative protections for the investment in future. The latter is a strong key in today's political environment. The drivers in Congress and Admin wish to shut down hydrocarbon industry. Period. It IS a political problem.



Drilling permits on Federal lands are only about 10% of the total number already approved. Are you telling me that the only viable drilling permits are those on Federal lands and that the other 90%, all on privately-owned land, are all impractical? That seems statistically improbable.

It's also worth noting that production continues to (generally) increase over time, regardless of who's in the White House. Check out this interactive graph:









U.S. Crude Oil Production - Historical Chart


Interactive historical chart showing the monthly level of U.S. crude oil production back to 1983 from the US Energy Information Adminstration (EIA). Values shown are in thousands of barrels produced per day.




www.macrotrends.net





The 2020 drop was due to the global market price falling through the floor. Production did increase markedly in Trump's term in office but it also peaked and was reducing well before the 2020 election. Production also increased markedly during the Obama years.

UPDATE: One more stray voltage on this topic and then I'll quit. Take a look at the Bush Presidency years (Senior and W). Oil production actually decreased during both periods....and they were Republican oil men from Texas. Riddle me that conundrum! Of course, production also declined during the intervening Clinton years.

Democrats want to keep getting the tree-hugger vote, so they advocate for green policies...but the data (per the production chart) doesn't tally with the message they're selling to the voters. Equally, the Republicans want to be seen as pro-capitalism, with fossil fuels driving that engine....but, again, the production data doesn't tally with their message either. 

The big driver in fossil fuel production is the mighty $. We see this EVERY time there's a hiccup on the world stage. Oil companies immediately start increasing prices...but they're incredibly tardy at winding off those increases once the crisis is resolved. It's money that's driving this train, not who's in the White House.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> ….
> There is (or perhaps was) a built up force in the area of the disputed border between China and Russia, particularly in the Amir River region. If Russia draws down that force, how will China respond?


In the spirit of Putler’s wanting historical boundaries returned, reclaim Haishenwai?


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 3, 2022)

A bit on US refining capacity:








U.S. oil refining capacity down in 2021 for second year -EIA


Capacity for U.S. oil refiners fell in 2021 for the second year in a row, the most recent government data showed on Tuesday, as plant shutdowns kept whittling away on their ability to produce gasoline and diesel.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> A bit on US refining capacity:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks. That’s much better info than I had.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 3, 2022)

And a big cause in the reduction of refining capacity was the loss of a Louisiana facility due to Hurricane Ida, plus multiple other refineries shut during the Covid pandemic due to reduced demand. Many of those were closed permanently, which seems a little bizarre...unless they were too costly to re-start or they had old equipment that was too expensive to replace.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 3, 2022)

For the last time knock it off with the over the top political shit. Take it to your political forums.

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## MiTasol (Sep 3, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Dialect vs language is fuzzy. *The Venetian dialect of Italian is more distinct from the Neapolitan dialect than Danish is from Norwegian*



And in Papua New Guinea there are over 800 distinct languages with many of the differences being as distinct as the differences between English and German


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## GTX (Sep 3, 2022)

I thought this thread was about the war in Ukraine, not languages, oil production or US politics...

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## MiTasol (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And go back to 2008 when gas prices were about as bad as they are today (once you factor in inflation). We weathered that storm. Yes, things are different now...but humans are remarkably resilient and adaptive to changing situations. * Maybe we will see US production of fossil fuels increase....stranger things have happened.*



California has just extended its Nuc electrical supply despite all the greenies there so expanded petroleum production is highly likely. Being self sufficient should always be a consideration for governments.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> And a big cause in the reduction of refining capacity was the loss of a Louisiana facility due to Hurricane Ida, plus multiple other refineries shut during the Covid pandemic due to reduced demand. Many of those were closed permanently, which seems a little bizarre...unless they were too costly to re-start or they had old equipment that was too expensive to replace.


According to the Reuters article, a number had been or are in the process of converting to biodiesel.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 3, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> All those groups were forcibly incorporated, but getting international support was a bit harder when it took months for a letter to get from there to here.



There's also the whole _interference in a country's internal affairs_ thing being _casus belli_, too.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 3, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Russia had close to 900 T80 and T90 tanks in service a few months ago.
> 
> About 3000 T80 are in storage and yet to be upgraded to the latest model with 200 or more in storage as well.
> 
> ...



Do they have 9000+ trained crewmen to operate those reserve T-80s?

We always talk here about how a good pilot can often fight with a subpar airplane better than a rookie can fight his better bird. Just as with airplanes, tanks have the same issue -- the equipment may be great, but if the crew cannot take advantage of its superiority, the tank and its crew may still be at a disadvantage.

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## Glider (Sep 3, 2022)

I cannot help but think that this piece of news, says more than the words.

‘My time has come’: Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov says he wants to quit

Your average warlord would want to be in charge when victory is complete, their legacy enshrined and history in their own area written. 

Working on the assumption that he has access to more information than any of us. To decide its time to leave just when things are potentially going south, has the sound of rats leaving a sinking ship. His father did a similar thing so maybe its in the blood, look after no 1 and to hell with everyone else

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 3, 2022)

Frog said:


> For Rwanda, the French under UN mandate, Operation Turquoise june 24, 1994 to try and stop the massacre ; as a reward we were later accused of trying to oppose the RPF.



I stand corrected. Thanks for doing so.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> I cannot help but think that this piece of news, says more than the words.
> 
> ‘My time has come’: Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov says he wants to quit
> 
> ...


If Lukashenko makes a similar announcement Putin is well and truly kippered. He is a mental case clearly….









'Conflict Mounting' Between Ukraine Army And Zelensky, Lukashenko Claims


Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also said he believes the war between Russia and Ukraine will end "in the near future."




www.ibtimes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 3, 2022)

This sounds like a bold UAF attempt, if true.









Russia says it foiled Ukrainian attempt to seize nuclear plant


Ukrainian forces attempted to capture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in an attack on the facility on Friday night, Russia's defence ministry said in its daily briefing on Saturday.




www.reuters.com





Maybe these guys?









Special Operations Forces (Ukraine) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sounds like a bold UAF attempt, if true.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I heard about this earlier today. I'm inclined to think it's Russian agitprop, aimed at pinning any potential blame upon these "attacks".

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## GrauGeist (Sep 3, 2022)

If the caption starts with "Russia says...", then it's either complete bullsh*t, partial bullsh*t or *may* have a grain of truth. 

Heavy emphasis on *may*.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the caption starts with "Russia says...", then it's either complete bullsh*t, partial bullsh*t or *may* have a grain of truth.
> 
> Heavy emphasis on *may*.


The grain of truth entirely encompassed in the phrase "Russia says..."

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## Glider (Sep 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Lukashenko makes a similar announcement Putin is well and truly kippered. He is a mental case clearly….
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If anyone believes anything that man says, they need t go to a quiet dark room, and stay there

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## Glider (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Lukashenko makes a similar announcement Putin is well and truly kippered. He is a mental case clearly….
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That will never happen, Lukashenko needs Putin to stay in power (or even alive).

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## Glider (Sep 4, 2022)

Latest MOD daily update, which looks as if the financial issues are starting to hit home. 

Remember - Rule No 1 of any dictatorship, pay the army and pay them well

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## Dimlee (Sep 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> A language professor once told me,
> "The difference between a dialect and a language is a national border."


Ukraine: "and a strong army..."

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## Dimlee (Sep 4, 2022)

Probably, the first video confirming the usage of M982 Excalibur. Canadian?

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## Dimlee (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sounds like a bold UAF attempt, if true.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If there was any (failed) raid, it was against Russian artillery that shells Nikopol indiscriminately.

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## Glider (Sep 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> If there was any (failed) raid, it was against Russian artillery that shells Nikopol indiscriminately.


Personally the most compelling evidence, is the total lack of any camera footage from Russia. If they had achieved any success of any kind the airwaves will have been flooded the news.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 4, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Probably, the first video confirming the usage of M982 Excalibur. Canadian?


With Canada having the largest Ukrainian population after Ukraine and Russia (temporary refugees in Poland aside), I’d like to think my country is well contributing.









What has Canada done to help Ukraine? The complete timeline | Cansumer


The economic, military, trade and immigration aid Canada has provided to Ukraine since their independence in 1991.




cansumer.ca





But I’d like to see more from Canada. If the Germans won’t support Leo2 transfers, let’s send more of our Canadian-produced LAVs, for starters. Did this prior commitment below arrive?









Canada Supply Ukraine with Brand New Armoured Combat Support Vehicles, High-Resolution Cameras for Bayraktar TB2 UAV | Defense Express


Canada will send 39 LAV ACSV Super Bison infantry support combat vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as well as additional six high-resolution cameras for use on Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones




en.defence-ua.com

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## GTX (Sep 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 4, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>




Muhammed Ali on the stick there -- "'cause I float like a butterfly and sting like a bee."

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## SaparotRob (Sep 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



What air defense doing?


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## SaparotRob (Sep 4, 2022)

Are you sure that’s not from a movie? Smiling Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine doesn’t have airplanes.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What air defense doing?



Yet somehow an A-10 would not survive there, to read the naysayers.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 4, 2022)

I mean, c’mon Vlad. How do you expect to ever sell this crap?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I mean, c’mon Vlad. How do you expect to ever sell this crap?



"Lightly used, some dings, 8.5/10. Not mint."

That's how it works buying guitars online, after all. Meanwhile:













Probably the same eBay asshole.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What air defense doing?


Being frustrated with the constant flare dispensing while he's down in the weeds...

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## GrauGeist (Sep 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yet somehow an A-10 would not survive there, to read the naysayers.


That group seems to forget the A-10 was created for this very situation and against this very enemy...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Being frustrated with the constant flare dispensing while he's down in the weeds...



... like any smart pilot overflying troops with MANPADS ...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That group seems to forget the A-10 was created for this very situation and against this very enemy...



John Paul Jones is quoted as saying "Give me a fast ship, because I intend to go into harm's way."

Warthog pilots may well say "Give me a slow ship, for I intend to be the harm."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

_
PRAGUE, Sept 3 (Reuters) - An estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government on Saturday, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO.

Organisers of the demonstration from a number of far-right and fringe political groups including the Communist party, said the central European nation should be neutral militarily and ensure direct contracts with gas suppliers, including Russia._









Tens of thousands protest in Prague against Czech government, EU and NATO


An estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government on Saturday, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That group seems to forget the A-10 was created for this very situation and against this very enemy...


Given choice between F-16 and A-10, the UAF will take the former, getting in/out of the ground target asap. The Viper doesn’t have the brrrttt gun, but it carries a lot of PGMs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Given choice between F-16 and A-10, the UAF will take the former, getting in/out of the ground target asap. The Viper doesn’t have the brrrttt gun, but it carries a lot of PGMs.
> 
> View attachment 685380



The other benefit is that it offers a relevant air-defense/counter-air option that the A-10 cannot match up to. But hey -- why not both?

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _PRAGUE, Sept 3 (Reuters) - An estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government on Saturday, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO.
> 
> Organisers of the demonstration from a number of far-right and fringe political groups including the Communist party, said the central European nation should be neutral militarily and ensure direct contracts with gas suppliers, including Russia._
> 
> ...



I chatted to a Czech friend about these and he says it's wild - the far right and the far left marching together and having a pro-Russian love in. He commented that they basically found common ground about being anti-vaxx/anti-lockdowns during COVID and have now taken it to the next level. He doesn't feel like it amounts to anything - accorrding to him, Czech people are much more supportive of the EU and NATO that they were before the Ukraine invasion.

The main trigger is cost of living stuff - most Czech people feel like they're under pressure financially and they think winter is going to be bad with a shortage of gas. 

Interestingly, he says the protestors are either really young or older and right leaning. Not many in the 25-55 age bracket.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I chatted to a Czech friend about these and he says it's wild - the far right and the far left marching together and having a pro-Russian love in. He commented that they basically found common ground about being anti-vaxx/anti-lockdowns during COVID and have now taken it to the next level. He doesn't feel like it amounts to anything - accorrding to him, Czech people are much more supportive of the EU and NATO that they were before the Ukraine invasion.
> 
> The main trigger is cost of living stuff - most Czech people feel like they're under pressure financially and they think winter is going to be bad with a shortage of gas.
> 
> Interestingly, he says the protestors are either really young or older and right leaning. Not many in the 25-55 age bracket.



It caught my attention because they are so much closer to danger than this American. I hope his statement that "Czech people are much more supportive of the EU and NATO than they were before the Ukraine invasion" is accurate.

I get the cost-of-living stuff, but that will happen even if Ukraine rolls over and plays dead. Russia will still toy with oil and grain exports for sake of leverage. It calls for a little toughness no matter how this ends up. The fact of it being launched at all means that markets were doomed to unease. And there is still fallout from COVID etc that has discombobulated the world's economy.

From my distant view, it's hard to feel sympathy for their cause, except that I'm sure it will be a tough winter and that sucks.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The other benefit is that it offers a relevant air-defense/counter-air option that the A-10 cannot match up to. But hey -- why not both?


I think it comes down to training. Train everyone on the fewest aircraft types so that they can themselves train others on the fewest types.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think it comes down to training. Train everyone on the fewest aircraft types so that they can themselves train others on the fewest types.


Correct - and in the USAF today, once a pilot gets their duty assignment, they fly one aircraft, it's rare to see otherwise. @Biff may chime in on this.

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## swampyankee (Sep 4, 2022)

The F-16 is a capable air-air platform and (with PGM) can attack ground targets. No matter what you do to an A-10, its air-air capabilities are negligible. 

What the best combat aircraft for Ukraine is, obviously, a question that only the Ukrainians can answer. I suspect the F-16 would be an excellent choice, as it's an excellent and versatile aircraft.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 4, 2022)

Maybe a dozen Grippens to hold them over until a more adequate F-16 infrastructure is developed. Hey, I just wanna' get 'em something. MiG -29s are cool and all that but, you know.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think it comes down to training. Train everyone on the fewest aircraft types so that they can themselves train others on the fewest types.



That's a really good point. It also simplifies the supply-chain.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Maybe a dozen Grippens to hold them over until a more adequate F-16 infrastructure is developed.


I don’t think the Gripen is a training stepping stone to the Viper. 

IIRC, Ukraine was planning to buy SAAB Gripens before this war. It would have been a fine option.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 4, 2022)

Let’s just keep scooping up and sending to Ukraine the world’s MiG-29 stocks until the F-16 can enter UAF service. India has MiG-29s, including license-built versions. A middle man bearing cash would given India both incentive and plausible deniability.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 4, 2022)

Would India willingly give its state of the art Russian fighters? They seem to be getting stellar service from their Russian aircraft carrier.

I wasn't serious about the Grippen.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s just keep scooping up and sending to Ukraine the world’s MiG-29 stocks until the F-16 can enter UAF service. India has MiG-29s, including license-built versions. A middle man bearing cash would given India both incentive and plausible deniability.



India is busy fitting out its new carrier. They probably want any and all good -29 airframes, if, for nothing else, spare parts.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 4, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> No matter what you do to an A-10, its air-air capabilities are negligible.


Except that (as has been stated before several times) the A-10's pilots are schooled in "Basic Flight Maneuvers" the same as fighter pilots.
The A-10 carries air-to-air missiles for self defense (like fighters), it has a full suite of ECM and as secondary insurance, is able to lead-target an aggressor with the GAU-8's gunsight.

Contrary to popular belief, the A-10 is not helpless.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

The TB-2s can fly top cover for A-10s. Only half joking as there seem to be more Bayraktars now and flying into combat zones. I get a big kick out of looking at those SAM radars getting zapped.


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## Jabberwocky (Sep 5, 2022)

Looks like Ukraine is having some success with local advances in Kherson Oblast. Reports are that Russian forces have been thrown out of about a half dozen villages in the Northeast of the region in the last two days, and Ukraine is retaking ground along three axes. 

Russia may be undertaking preparations for a shortening of its lines in the area. Western intelligence reports that Russian logistics assets are being pulled back towards some of the larger towns on the western banks of the Dnipro. 

Russian tank losses in the area have also been heavy - Ukraine claimed its destroyed 27 in the past three days.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The TB-2s can fly top cover for A-10s.  Only half joking as there seem to be more Bayraktars now and flying into combat zones. I get a big kick out of looking at those SAM radars getting zapped.


If you get a chance, look up what the A-10 carries in the way of ordnance besides it's cannon.
It's literally a flying dump truck (which also includes self-defense hardware like the AIM-9).

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## AAIR (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sounds like a bold UAF attempt, if true.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Alleged Russian video of the aftermath of the alleged event. I agree with the commentators, this looks pretty fake


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 5, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Alleged Russian video of the aftermath of the alleged event. I agree with the commentators, this looks pretty fake



I had never been in a battlefield but those deads look in good shape. No blood, no injuries.

They don't even have a face. Not one is shown the face, they are all masked and nobody dares to unmask tham?

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## J_P_C (Sep 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> India is busy fitting out its new carrier. They probably want any and all good -29 airframes, if, for nothing else, spare parts.


-K version of MIG-29 will require as much training from Ukrainians as F-16 - this airplane have very little common with 9.13 version used by Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Looks like Ukraine is having some success with local advances in Kherson Oblast.


If I’m a Russian soldier sitting in Kherson who hasn’t been properly paid, equipped, fed or led for months, and who has no idea why I’m here, or what the mission is…. when the UAF arrives I‘m either surrendering or swimming the Dnieper.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you get a chance, look up what the A-10 carries in the way of ordnance besides it's cannon.
> It's literally a flying dump truck (which also includes self-defense hardware like the AIM-9).


Yes, but when a drone can spot and gps map a target for a HIMARs 100+ km away to strike with utmost precision, all whilst keeping the men and equipment safe… why do you need an A-10 in place of a F-16? The one role the A-10 can do best, CAS can be done well enough by modern tech, whereas the F-16 can do everything else.


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## Dimlee (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But I’d like to see more from Canada. If the Germans won’t support Leo2 transfers, let’s send more of our Canadian-produced LAVs, for starters. Did this prior commitment below arrive?


No information yet in the open sources.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you get a chance, look up what the A-10 carries in the way of ordnance besides it's cannon.
> It's literally a flying dump truck (which also includes self-defense hardware like the AIM-9).


I have, GrauGeist. I'm a bit of an A-10 fanboy!

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## Dimlee (Sep 5, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Estonia is top 1 regarding military assistance per capita, GDP % and military budget %.








Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine


The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid transferred by governments to Ukraine since January 24, 2022.




www.ifw-kiel.de




Eesti, ma armastan sind.
🇪🇪👍

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## Dimlee (Sep 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "Lightly used, some dings, 8.5/10. Not mint."
> 
> That's how it works buying guitars online, after all. Meanwhile:
> 
> ...


Isn't this tank an "open box/almost new"? See, it's not painted, just bare metal.

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## Dimlee (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Let’s just keep scooping up and sending to Ukraine the world’s MiG-29 stocks until the F-16 can enter UAF service. India has MiG-29s, including license-built versions. A middle man bearing cash would given India both incentive and plausible deniability.


Actually, it's a good point. RUMINT says that middlemen were very active since February and delivered, for example, a lot of 152 mm munition. Probably art pieces and light weapons as well. Now some Ukrainian foundations are allowed to import lethal weapons. Taras Chmut from Come Back Alive mentioned in one interview his meetings with people that were like from the Lord of War movie.

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## Dimlee (Sep 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The TB-2s can fly top cover for A-10s. Only half joking as there seem to be more Bayraktars now and flying into combat zones. I get a big kick out of looking at those SAM radars getting zapped.


Baykar confirmed that a fighter UAV is in their plans.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yes, but when a drone can spot and gps map a target for a HIMARs 100+ km away to strike with utmost precision, all whilst keeping the men and equipment safe… why do you need an A-10 in place of a F-16? The one role the A-10 can do best, CAS can be done well enough by modern tech, whereas the F-16 can do everything else.


So why was the Su-25 (seen hammering Russian positions in the video) being used instead of a drone?

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## MicroShket (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If I’m a Russian soldier sitting in Kherson who hasn’t been properly paid, equipped, fed or led for months, and who has no idea why I’m here, or what the mission is…. when the UAF arrives I‘m either surrendering or swimming the Dnieper.


However, I wouldn't be so sure about it. I'm not a supporter of Russian or Ukrainian propaganda either, but I clearly see that the situation at the front is far from favorable for Ukrainian army. Maybe only on Twitter or Telegram. 
Russia can't widely use its airforce due to still strong Ukrainian airdefence and shortages of precise munitions. And in its turn the Russian airdefence is not weaker at least, so UAF have no chance to make an impact on the battlefield.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

What air defense doing?


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## Glider (Sep 5, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> Russia can't widely use its airforce due to still strong Ukrainian airdefence and shortages of precise munitions. And in its turn the Russian airdefence is not weaker at least, so UAF have no chance to make an impact on the battlefield.


Just breaking your words down
_Russia can't widely use its airforce due to still strong Ukrainian airdefence_
So why cannot Russia use its airforce. It is much bigger than the Ukraine airforce, it has more modern aircraft, its airbases shouldn't be under any threat, yet the Ukraine airforce is more active now than it has ever been. Plus the Ukraine bases have hardly been scratched. Regarding the airforce, Ukraine seems to be in a better place than at the start, and Russia worse off. 

_and shortages of precise munitions_
Russia started the war with an overwhelming advantage in long range precision weapons, They have a shortage because they wasted them on non military targets trying to terrorise the civilian population. Now Russia has a shortage and by definition are worse off than at the start.

_UAF have no chance to make an impact on the battlefield._
But the UAF are now more active than they have ever been, and the Russian airforce quieter than it has ever been, largely because it has moved its airforce further away from the front line. Again by definition, Russia is much worse off than it was at the start and the Ukraine, much stronger.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 5, 2022)

Glider said:


> _and shortages of precise munitions_
> Russia started the war with an overwhelming advantage in long range precision weapons, They have a shortage because they wasted them on non military targets trying to terrorise the civilian population. Now Russia has a shortage and by definition are worse off than at the start.


And I wonder how much was also squandered away in Syria?

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

And, "Russian and Ukraine propaganda" aside, independent sources have clearly shown that Ukrainian forces have put considerable pressure on Russian forces, pushing back several Russian offenses, putting Russia in the defensive.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And I wonder how much was also squandered away in Syria?


Another page from Hitler's playbook:

"_Start a war you're ill equipped to sustain_"

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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _PRAGUE, Sept 3 (Reuters) - An estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government on Saturday, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO.
> 
> Organisers of the demonstration from a number of far-right and fringe political groups including the Communist party, said the central European nation should be neutral militarily and ensure direct contracts with gas suppliers, including Russia._
> 
> ...


Putin's "Useful Idiots"

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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)

European Union to meet amid energy crisis warning as Russia suspends gas supply


Germany says Russia is "no longer a reliable energy partner" after announcing multi-billion dollar measures to help ease price pain.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)

Ukraine’s pitch to Australia: Use our army as your guinea pig


Ukraine’s ambassador said a fleet of new Australian “Hawkei” vehicles could make an important contribution to the fight against Russia.




www.theage.com.au

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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)

'It's not scary to die for the Motherland': Vladimir Putin's mandatory weekly school lectures

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yes, but when a drone can spot and gps map a target for a HIMARs 100+ km away to strike with utmost precision, all whilst keeping the men and equipment safe… why do you need an A-10 in place of a F-16? The one role the A-10 can do best, CAS can be done well enough by modern tech, whereas the F-16 can do everything else.



Drones can loiter. A-10s can loiter. But keeping HIMARS/MLRS in position waiting for an assignment from the drones seems unduly risky. The A-10 can, on the other hand, ferry its payload around the battlefield at 275 mph, and this at a low altitude, reducing radar tracking though not local IR.

And if you want to use that pilot's observations to spot for the rockets, it is equipped to do so already. The pilot can also spot and target emerging threats and take them out himself with one less step (comm) in the process.

In other words, I think it still has a role in the battle. If the Ukrainians are using Frogfoots (or is that Frogfeet? I don't know), I'm sure they could get better use out of some Warthogs -- better sensors, bigger loadout, and more survivability.

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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 5, 2022)

Ukraine is preparing a major offensive against Russia, and Crimea could be the front line


Ukrainian presidential adviser says residents of occupied territories, including the Crimea Peninsula, should follow Ukrainian officials' recommendations during "de-occupation measures".




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So why was the Su-25 (seen hammering Russian positions in the video) being used instead of a drone?


You use what you’ve got. More drones and HIMARS are needed.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

So then by that logic, Ukraine doesn't need F-16s...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 5, 2022)

After the bayraktar song, "HIMARS Got Talent":









Ukraine Situation Report: HIMARS Gets The America's Got Talent Treatment


Saint Javelin's latest production is another example of the unprecedented online information war swirling around the conflict in Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So then by that logic, Ukraine doesn't need F-16s...


I had a reply ready, but I sense a pointless circular chat will ensue. You do you.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You use what you’ve got. More drones and HIMARS are needed.



I'd rather see the F-16s intro'ed ASAP rather than more drones. The drones will have to hold the line until the pilots are trained on the -16s.


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## MicroShket (Sep 5, 2022)

Glider said:


> Just breaking your words down
> _Russia can't widely use its airforce due to still strong Ukrainian airdefence_
> So why cannot Russia use its airforce. It is much bigger than the Ukraine airforce, it has more modern aircraft, its airbases shouldn't be under any threat, yet the Ukraine airforce is more active now than it has ever been.


You have missed my words about Ukrainian airdefence. As I know VKS weakness is an insufficient attention to SEAD tactic in previous years. The real treat is not fake "Ghost of Kyiv" from DCS game, but but the most saturated/deep air defense in Europe. You can launch dozens of Su-30 and Tu-22M3 with free fall bombs, and yet lost many. 


GrauGeist said:


> independent sources have clearly shown that Ukrainian forces have put considerable pressure on Russian forces, pushing back several Russian offenses, putting Russia in the defensive.


Of course. Because of several mobilizations Ukrain has accumulated enough reserves. What is the price in manpower of these successes?Just look at the counteroffensive: so much talks about it, but yet only minor success near Kherson in 7 days.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

Now Taiwan is ordering HIMARS.









HIMARS purchase by Taiwan reflects the tension driving Japan’s military build-up


China’s shadow leaves neighbours adopting new defensive approaches, including HIMARS heavy 'porcupine strategy'.




www.airforce-technology.com





The US plant that makes the rockets is ramping up production.









U.S. Accelerating HIMARS Production to Help Ukraine: Pentagon Official


Ukraine is "effectively employing" the lightweight mobile launchers, according to the Department of Defense.




www.newsweek.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> European Union to meet amid energy crisis warning as Russia suspends gas supply
> 
> 
> Germany says Russia is "no longer a reliable energy partner" after announcing multi-billion dollar measures to help ease price pain.
> ...


“No longer a reliable energy partner…”
Ya’ think?


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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'It's not scary to die for the Motherland': Vladimir Putin's mandatory weekly school lectures


Yet he can’t sit at a normal sized table because of his fears.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The drones will have to hold the line until the pilots are trained on the -16s.


...and the maintenence and supply trains, too.



MicroShket said:


> Just look at the counteroffensive: so much talks about it, but yet only minor success near Kherson in 7 days.


NATO (No Action, Talk Only) for a reason, maybe? Like to sucker all those troops into a salient, ripe for cutoff? You betcha every potential retreat route across the Dneiper has its coordinates engraved in a HIMARS guidance system.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 5, 2022)

"It's not scary to die for the Motherland."
-Vladimir Putin


SaparotRob said:


> Yet he can’t sit at a normal sized table because of his fears.


Maybe he should try leadership by example?

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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

It took Russia around 4 months to take Sevierodonetsk from a separatist region starting point. How far is that? How much further did Russia get to Kyiv? Oh wait, they retreated back to Russia on that front. Russia fights stupidly. Ukraine fights intelligently. Ukrainian forces are probing a weakening enemy. Ukraine is gaining and holding ground. Ukraine values its people. They aren’t going to throw them away.
Think about it. This is Ukraine’s first EVER offensive as an independent nation. 
Good job 👍🏻.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Russia fights stupidly. Ukraine fights intelligently.


"Dance like a butterfly, sting like a bee."

And MikroShket is straight out of "the Great Patriotic War", if you ask me.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 5, 2022)

I like the tactis of Foreman (late career) . 42 and still the champ of champs.


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## Glider (Sep 5, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> You have missed my words about Ukrainian airdefence. As I know VKS weakness is an insufficient attention to SEAD tactic in previous years. The real treat is not fake "Ghost of Kyiv" from DCS game, but but the most saturated/deep air defense in Europe. You can launch dozens of Su-30 and Tu-22M3 with free fall bombs, and yet lost many.


You are missing my point. Your whole posting was about the Ukraine not being in a good place. I am pointing out to you that by any measurable, the Ukraine are stronger now than they were at the start, be it on land, at sea or in the air. 
The initiative in combat has switched and the Ukraine have the initiative, the average equipment that the Ukraine forces are actually improving and getting better, ironically except in the air where the Ukraine are doing exceptionally well and improving their situation, not be having better aircraft but by fighting smarter. 

I hope its when the Ukraine start getting the F16 and other western aircraft, then Russia will be in very serious trouble. If they lose control of the air, then their artillery stand a good chance of suffering appalling losses. A lot of it is towed and they will be sitting ducks.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I had a reply ready, but I sense a pointless circular chat will ensue. You do you.


It has already been going on.

Most modern militaries realize and execute a multi-layer battlefield system that includes bombers, fighters and ground attack from their air-arm.

Below that, rocket propelled and conventional artillery, AFVs as well as well armed troops are key.

Drone technology (both recon and assault) and man-portable air defenses augment a military's combat effectiveness.

But it's all interconnected and the Ukraine is a shining example of how training, integration and sound command decisions can counter numerical superiority.

Claiming just drones can do the job or HIMARS or MANPADS or whatever is not realistic.

But hey, "you do you", right?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> European Union to meet amid energy crisis warning as Russia suspends gas supply
> 
> 
> Germany says Russia is "no longer a reliable energy partner" after announcing multi-billion dollar measures to help ease price pain.
> ...


When Europe has this energy shortage sorted out, which they will do in a permanent long term fashion by, my guess 2025, Russia’s energy industry will be toast. Pipelines to China, selling to one customer won’t be nearly as lucrative. Meanwhile Europe will progressively need you less and less.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But hey, "you do you", right?


"East is east and west is west and never the twain shall meet,
'til earth and sky stand presently,
'fore God's great judgement seat.
But there is neither east nor west,
nor border nor breed nor birth,
when two strong men stand face to face,
though they come from the ends of the earth." - Rudyard Kipling

NATOthink vs Ruskiye Mirthink.
It looks like eastthink is kinda behind the 8-ball, which appears to be in westthink's posession.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Pipelines to China, selling to one customer won’t be nearly as lucrative.



Selling to one customer actually becomes a leash. In business, diversification matters. When one only has one main buyer, guess who calls the shots?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Selling to one customer actually becomes a leash. In business, diversification matters. When one only has one main buyer, guess who calls the shots?


That’s Canada‘s experience. All our fossil fuels and most of everything else that’s exported goes primarity to the US. We have no LNG capability, so all natural gas exports are US bound, and subject to a lot of take it or leave it thinking from our US cousins.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s Canada‘s experience. All our fossil fuels and most of everything else that’s exported goes primarity to the US. We have no LNG capability, so all natural gas exports are US bound, and subject to a lot of take it or leave it thinking from our US cousins.



The customer is not always right, but he sure has the money to disagree. Russia is soon to learn this, I suspect.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 5, 2022)

Bingo!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 5, 2022)

Putler cut off oil to the west. That's his big play. Europe ditches Russian energy sooner. Europe accounts for at least 75% of Russia's oil exports. China and India start buying, at a discount on oil which is already down in cost. Europe puts a cap on Russian oil. India and China buy the same quantity as Europe and at the old higher price because, like, Putler is a Dude, bro'. Just kidding. They buy it at just above the cap. Not that they can buy much more unless Indians start frying batata vada in Ural crude. Others buy the stuff and sell to to west? Okay, it won't be at same volume as Europe bought and Russia ain't getting much of a piece of that pie. And oil prices come down. Which is cool. Mission accomplished.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 5, 2022)

Brilliant. Just BRILLIANT!









Ukrainian hackers created fake profiles of attractive women to trick Russian soldiers into sharing their location, report says. Days later, the base was blown up.


Russian soldiers sent the Ukrainian hackers photos, which they geolocated and sent to the Ukrainian military, the Financial Times reported.




finance.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Brilliant. Just BRILLIANT!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The first comment under the article is spot on.

_“See, this is the reason why information needs to be classified. They could have kept their mouths shut and keep using this method, but they just had to go and brag about it, and now this particular method will be less effective in the future.”_

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The first comment under the article is spot on.
> 
> _“See, this is the reason why information needs to be classified. They could have kept their mouths shut and keep using this method, but they just had to go and brag about it, and now this particular method will be less effective in the future.”_


I guarantee you that despite the word getting out on this, there will be plenty of gullible Russian soldiers falling for the same scam. How many years have there been websites for mail order brides but yet men with over-active testosterone will be duped time and time again.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Putler cut off oil to the west. That's his big play. Europe ditches Russian energy sooner. Europe accounts for at least 75% of Russia's oil exports.


This is just the kick Europe needed to recommit to nuclear power generation and to expedite geothermal heating, along with a big boost in solar and wind.









Geothermal Energy: Revolutionary Energy Source for a Green Europe


For thousands of years, people have been using geothermal energy. Today, it is an alternative to power plants based on fossil fuels and




energyindustryreview.com













Finland opens Europe's first new nuclear reactor in 15 years


Long-delayed Olkiluoto 3 reactor is intended to boost the Nordic country's electricity supply




www.thenationalnews.com





And Europe and the US can start to crack China’s dominance of the solar industry.









Why China Is Dominating the Solar Industry


Between 2008 and 2013, China's solar-electric panel industry dropped world prices by 80 percent




www.scientificamerican.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 5, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I guarantee you that despite the word getting out on this, there will be plenty of gullible Russian soldiers falling for the same scam. How many years have there been websites for mail order brides but yet men with over-active testosterone will be duped time and time again.


At least they're not posing as FNS agents (Federal Taxation Service - Russia's IRS) telling them to make a tax payment with wall mart gift cards!

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

No sourcing on this article, but the info about Russian dependency on imports is interesting:









Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage


Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.




www.bloomberg.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

An interesting article about the Wagner Group and it's relationship to the Kremlin:









For Putin and Russia, the mercenaries of the Wagner Group could be a recipe for disaster


European rulers have a long history of using mercenaries, and that history suggests Russia's Wagner Group could become a problem for Vladimir Putin.




www.businessinsider.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

Moscow continues to push the story that the Nord Stream pipeline problems are due to Western sanctions, despite Siemens engineers stating that the required repairs are routine. The brinkmanship continues:.









Russia delivers energy ultimatum as Nord Stream pipeline shut down


Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov blamed sanctions for Russia's failure to deliver gas via the key pipeline that delivers gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea.




www.newsweek.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

"Russia says..."

If those clowns told me the ocean was made of water, I'd go down to the beach, stand in the surf for 20 minutes just to be sure.

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## at6 (Sep 6, 2022)

Since Putin has decided to weaponize gas by cutting off the flow, it might be nice if someone infiltrated and destroyed the gas at it's source. The Putin would have nothing to sell.

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## MicroShket (Sep 6, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> And MikroShket is straight out of "the Great Patriotic War", if you ask me.


You mean the Great Patriotic war of 1812? 
Yes, I clearly see that this forum is totally unbiased and objective in it's judgment. But wait... 


GrauGeist said:


> If the caption starts with "Russia says...", then it's either complete bullsh*t, partial bullsh*t or *may* have a grain of truth.
> 
> Heavy emphasis on *may*.


Oh, shi... 
So I would like to know "out of what" or where are these participants from? 

I'll leave you alone in this sandbox multiplying flowing like sand dreams of Falcon and Warthog. 😌


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 6, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> Since Putin has decided to weaponize gas by cutting off the flow, it might be nice if someone infiltrated and destroyed the gas at it's source. The Putin would have nothing to sell.


Russia is doing that themselves. Once the natural gas field has been opened it cannot easily be closed. You must either burn or store the gas. Since Russia won‘t sell the gas to its customers to burn, and since Russia has very limited gas storage capacity, the gas must be burned at the well head.









Russia Flares Natural Gas as Energy Bills Surge in Europe


At a plant near the border with Finland, Russia is burning an estimated $10 million worth of natural gas every…




www.instituteforenergyresearch.org





Europe and the advanced West (US, Canada, ANZ, etc.) lead the world in the invention of nearly everything concerning energy. With all their minds working on the matter Europe will be permanently back on course in heating and energy by 2025. It’s going to be touch and go for winter 2022/23, but the Europeans have got through a lot worse, such as total destruction by 1945. Europe will be fine, and Russia will be reduced to a nothing power.

No, it’s not a new _Flaktürme_.









Germany Has Built A Huge 'Thermos' To Help Heat Homes In Winter


Advertisement Vattenfall, a Swedish utility firm, has developed a massive “thermos” that will hold millions of gallons of hot water to help heat Berlin homes this winter, even if Russian gas supplies run out. The rust-coloured tower rising from an industrial site near the Spree river’s banks in...




wonderfulengineering.com





There‘s a lot of projects underway that will progressively neuter Russia’s leverage.









The world's longest subsea cable will send clean energy from Morocco to the UK [update]


A 10.5 GW solar and wind farm is going to be built in Morocco, and it's eventually going to power 7 million homes in the UK.




electrek.co













France announces plans to build up to 14 nuclear reactors


France has announced plans to build up to 14 new nuclear reactors in a move that could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide a buffer against volatile energy prices.




www.cnn.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Canada announced at the NATO summit 39 brand new LAVs bound for Ukraine. See post 8302


I hope they're better than some of the kit we're sending. Though to be fair, this seems to be private donation rather than flaws in government kit.



I imagine a lot of the privately donated or funded kit is faulty or fraudulent. Scammers can smell an easy source of cash.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 6, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> You mean the Great Patriotic war of 1812?
> Yes, I clearly see that this forum is totally unbiased and objective in it's judgment. But wait...
> 
> Oh, shi...
> ...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

Steady on, folks. We've made it to over 10K posts and 500+ pages on this thread without it getting shut down. It's been a great discussion. Please, PLEASE let's not ruin things by getting personal with the posts.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 6, 2022)

Boys and girls - PLAY NICE!


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## Snautzer01 (Sep 6, 2022)

MicroShket joined 2014 and has 6 posts. Now comes back with such a reply. Classic sleeper troll. Dont feed it.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 6, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> MicroShket joined 2014 and has 6 posts. Now comes back with such a reply. Classic sleeper troll. Dont feed it.


With the other post of that guy I just notice that. An "unortodox" (to be polite) poster coming out of nowhere.

BTW, if the pic was deemed to personal or political I take notice and recive the yellow card, while beliving he/she/it deserved it.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 6, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Boys and girls - PLAY NICE!


Ok Joe, sorry if went too far.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> You mean the Great Patriotic war of 1812?
> Yes, I clearly see that this forum is totally unbiased and objective in it's judgment. But wait...
> 
> Oh, shi...
> ...


Куклен !

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

The Economic War


Cutting off Europe's gas supply is Putin's last throw of the dice




samf.substack.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

Anyone heard/read anything about a surprise Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv. I started to see some tweets just minutes ago.
Is it real? It's a distraction from Kherson offensive.? Was Kherson the distraction?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Anyone heard/read anything about a surprise Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv. I started to see some tweets just minutes ago.
> Is it real? It's a distraction from Kherson offensive.? Was Kherson the distraction?



Russia, like the rest of us has heard tons of talk from Ukraine on their planned, and West-demanded Kherson offensive. Looks like Russia took the bait and transferred tens of thousands of troops to Kherson, leaving the east under defended. Good thing the UAF has the sense not to storm towards Belgorod, about a hour's drive away, Kharkiv to Belgorod. Can you imagine?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

The UK's Daily Telegraph is following the surprise Kharkiv offensive, reporting that Ukrainian forces have taken a number of key bridges:









Ukrainian forces launch surprise attack in Kharkiv region


Ukrainian forces have launched a surprise offensive southeast of Kharkiv, unconfirmed reports in Russian and Ukrainian sources have said.




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 6, 2022)

At some point Vladolph Putler’s cronies need to realize it is their best interest to remove him and end this debacle.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

Also, the only main thoroughfare between Russia's base in Belgorod and Kharkiv, is highway E105 - that is a major killing zone.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

It seems mainstream media is echoing the ofensive too.








Ukrainian forces launch surprise attack in Kharkiv region


Ukrainian forces have launched a surprise offensive southeast of Kharkiv, unconfirmed reports in Russian and Ukrainian sources have said.




www.telegraph.co.uk












Russia caught off guard as Ukraine launches surprise offence


UKRAINIAN forces launched a surprise offensive near Kharkiv yesterday - just hours after a successful artillery strike on a missile storage area. Kyiv's heroic troops attacked Russian forces near Balakliya, a Russian-held town about 43 miles southeast of Kharkiv.




 www.express.co.uk





On a side note second article confirms what has been recently being rumored.
"_Russia has been forced to buy military hardware from North Korea as sanctions squeeze Moscow's ability to supply its military_"

I wonder what is the state of Russia weapon stocks when their main providers are Iran and North Korea.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The UK's Daily Telegraph is following the surprise Kharkiv offensive, reporting that Ukrainian forces have taken a number of key bridges:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



oops you won me there

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia, like the rest of us has heard tons of talk from Ukraine on their planned, and West-demanded Kherson offensive. Looks like Russia took the bait and transferred tens of thousands of troops to Kherson, leaving the east under defended. Good thing the UAF has the sense not to storm towards Belgorod, about a hour's drive away, Kharkiv to Belgorod. Can you imagine?


I did. As did GrauGeist. See posts # 9087 and # 9088. Dave beat me to punch as I was still composing my not nearly as good post.


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

More on Russia buying weapons from North Korea









Russia buying weapons from North Korea amid ammunition shortage, US says


Officials say the Kremlin’s reliance on pariah regimes is a sign that Western sanctions are hampering its ability to resupply its troops




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> More on Russia buying weapons from North Korea
> 
> 
> 
> ...


With both sharing a border with Russia, I would assume anything bought via North Korea is actually from China, but offering the latter plausible deniability.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> I'll leave you alone in this sandbox multiplying flowing like sand dreams of Falcon and Warthog. 😌


Hey, we're all A-10 fans here. I'll bet even Sergei Dronov is dreaming about having a few squadrons of them.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hey, we're all A-10 fans here. I'll bet even Sergei Dronov is dreaming about having a few squadrons of them.


That first day with that long convoy north of Kyiv. That’s where the A-10 would have done wonders.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> At some point Vladolph Putler’s cronies need to realize it is their best interest to remove him and end this debacle.


I believe Vladolph is in the process of thinning their ranks right now, just in case.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I wonder what is the state of Russia weapon stocks when their main providers are Iran and North Korea.


A very good one, I think.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That first day with that long convoy north of Kyiv. That’s where the A-10 would have done wonders.


You know, there might just be another chance very soon!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> More on Russia buying weapons from North Korea
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is very troubling. Could NATO supplied F-16s stand a chance against North Korean MiG 19s?

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> This is very troubling. Could NATO supplied F-16s stand a chance against North Korean MiG 19s?


Dunno, but I'd be really concerned about their Shenyang F-5s and Chengdu F-7s - those are world beaters! 

(from another century...)

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> This is very troubling. Could NATO supplied F-16s stand a chance against North Korean MiG 19s?


It's not going to be North Korean crap. They're just the conduit. Instead it's going to be PLA drones, missiles, etc. through the RPC-DPRK-Khasan route.

China's Wing Loong drones are already very active across Africa.









China selling armed drones to stealthy strategic effect


Algeria and Egypt are the latest nations slated to receive China’s CH-5 and Wing Loong drones, sales that underline Beijing’s increasingly successful global marketing strategy after the US re…




asiatimes.com





The No.5 is a killer https://www.zomato.com/melbourne/wing-loong-restaurant-1-cbd/menu

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## Dimlee (Sep 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> hey have a shortage because they wasted them on non military targets trying to terrorise the civilian population.


Just to add some numbers into the context. Oleksiy Danilov reported about one month ago, that as per estimates of his team, 74% of all objects damaged/destroyed by Russian missiles were civilian ones.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's not going to be North Korean crap.



Actually, yes it is. Russia isn't buying hi-tech kit from NK. They're simply buying as much ammo as they can get their hands on. This from the NY Times:


Russia Is Buying North Korean Artillery, According to U.S. Intelligence

_"Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, according to newly declassified American intelligence, a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states for military supplies.

[…]

The United States provided few details from the declassified intelligence about the exact weaponry, timing or size of the shipment, and there is no way yet to independently verify the sale. A U.S. official said that, beyond short-range rockets and artillery shells, Russia was expected to try to purchase additional North Korean equipment going forward.

[…]

While it is not clear what impact [Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots] has had on overall stocks of ammunition, Russia was forced to pull back and move its ammunition storage points, reducing the effectiveness of its artillery forces.

There have also been signs that the effectiveness of some Russian artillery shells has been degraded because of storage problems or poor maintenance of its ammunition stocks. To be most effective at wounding opposing troops, artillery shells burst in the air, just before they hit the ground. But the crater pattern created by Russian artillery forces over the summer showed that many of their shells were exploding on the ground, reducing the damage to Ukrainian trenches.

While the condition of North Korean artillery shells is not clear, the country has extensive stocks of the ammunition."_

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## Dimlee (Sep 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine’s pitch to Australia: Use our army as your guinea pig
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s ambassador said a fleet of new Australian “Hawkei” vehicles could make an important contribution to the fight against Russia.
> ...


Do guinea pigs swim? It's a pity that Montreaux Convention does not allow Australian submarines to sail into the Black Sea. Just to make some other pigs nervous...

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Do guinea pigs swim? It's a pity that Montreaux Convention does not allow Australian submarines to sail into the Black Sea. Just to make some other pigs nervous...


Does the Convention block cargo ships and barges that transport arms, including submarines?

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## GTX (Sep 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Yet he can’t sit at a normal sized table because of his fears.


Hypocrisy is common with scumbags like Putin or Trump.

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## GTX (Sep 6, 2022)

Russia to buy North Korean artillery shells, rockets: Report


Declassified intelligence from the US says that Moscow is turning to isolated state to secure weapons as sanctions bite.




www.aljazeera.com













Russia purchasing artillery, rockets from North Korea for Ukraine invasion


A US official says Russia is in the process of is purchasing "millions of rounds" of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight against Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 6, 2022)

German Chancellor Scholz refuses to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected the request of the Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal for the supply of additional heavy weapons to Ukraine, reports the German newspaper Welt, citin…




ukrainetoday.org

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

Wonder why Germany is being so obstinate about support for Ukraine?


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## Dimlee (Sep 6, 2022)

MicroShket said:


> You mean the Great Patriotic war of 1812?
> Yes, I clearly see that this forum is totally unbiased and objective in it's judgment. But wait...
> 
> Oh, shi...
> ...


Just some nitpicking from the "amateur scholar" of the Russian Empire and USSR. 
Great Patriotic War 1941-1945.
Patriotic War 1812.
Second Patriotic War (the name used in the Russian Empire and discarded in the USSR) 1914-1917, a part of World War I.
Going back to the sandbox...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> German Chancellor Scholz refuses to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine
> 
> 
> German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected the request of the Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal for the supply of additional heavy weapons to Ukraine, reports the German newspaper Welt, citin…
> ...



Got to love the last statement "At the end of August, Scholz said that Ukraine would not receive German weapons which could be used to strike the Russian territory." Sheesh...get me close enough and I could strike Russian territory with a slingshot, let alone a rifle. 

Germany has already supplied panzerfausts which, clearly, are anti-tank. The primary purpose of a tank is to destroy enemy armour. So why is a tank more likely to strike Russia than a panzerfaust? 

I have to wonder why Germany is making such distinctions? Unless they're worried that Ukraine will go rolling into Russia? Frankly, Kyiv would lose all its western support if that were to happen.


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## GTX (Sep 6, 2022)

I suspect the real reason is that Germany knows their own defences are severely lacking and don't want to give up things....but at the same time don't want to admit that.

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## Dimlee (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems mainstream media is echoing the ofensive too.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hey, they didn't tap the unlimited resources of Cuba yet.

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## GTX (Sep 6, 2022)

Russia-Ukraine war: southern offensive signals new stage







amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> Hypocrisy is common with scumbags like Putin or Trump.


Don't be ridiculous. 
Trump doesn't pretend to be anything but himself. Keep your TDS in check.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 6, 2022)

Folks - stop the politics!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 6, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 6, 2022)

Things get hot on Russian controlled territory too.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

And so it begins Putin, you dumb potato.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And so it begins Putin, you dumb potato.



This is the second time that claim surfaces in little time. Both from indian sources. India is not overwhelming friendly to China. Sincerely, looks more an attempt from the indian side to lay rocks between China and Russia than a true ambition from China to grab Vladivostock.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And so it begins Putin, you dumb potato.



I've been wanting to troll some orcs with "Free Haishenwai NOW!" but I was afraid of Kharmic backlash. It would be worse for AUKUS if China got Port Arthur back. The PLA Navy ships seems to be able to make it out to sea and back under their own power. 
Can we invite Japan in? It would've been nice to have them in NATO.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Can we invite Japan in? It would've been nice to have them in NATO.


If the British had recognized Manchukuo the Japanese, as Australia was pushing in 1935, Japan might have once again been on our side. Why we GAC about China to the point of risking world war, IDK. As Napoleon said, "_China is a sleeping giant, let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."_

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

Japan is a member of the G7 nations and all those nations, save for Japan, are NATO members.

Japan's physical location excludes it from actually joining NATO, though.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Japan is a member of the G7 nations and all those nations, save for Japan, are NATO members.
> 
> Japan's physical location excludes it from actually joining NATO, though.


Yup, I know enough geography for that. Hence my wistful tone. But how 'bout AUKUS? I must admit I'm feeling raucous for AUKUS.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

There is the Pacific Rim Alliance, though it's not quite like NATO - however, all the members (and many others) participate in the RIMPAC exercises.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 6, 2022)

This article rightfully describes a people that will not be beaten.



https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/10/ukraine-invasion-civilian-volunteers-survival/671241/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Anyone heard/read anything about a surprise Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv. I started to see some tweets just minutes ago.
> Is it real? It's a distraction from Kherson offensive.? Was Kherson the distraction?




My bet is that it's designed to tie down potential Russian reinforcements which might otherwise be moved to fight the southern offensive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And so it begins Putin, you dumb potato.




It's an Indian news outlet, so there may be a little anti-Chinese bias involved.

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## ThomasP (Sep 6, 2022)

Just a bit of info re the India-Russia and India-China relations.

I have several friends of Indian nationality who are here in the US, either going for citizenship or on work visas.

They have all expressed the opinion that Putin is "senile", "stupid", "crazy", for starting the war with Ukraine. Their main concern seems to be that the war could get out of hand (ie nukes get used) and ruin everything, and hence think that it would have been better if the US & NATO had not gotten involved other than politically.

They do not feel threatened by Russia, as they have no common border, no historical antagonism, and have a small but good trade relationship. Also, India has nukes and a population 9.5x the population of the RF.

On the other-other hand, they do feel somewhat threatened by China, as they have a common border, they have intermittent low level skirmishes between IAF and Chinese border forces, and China has a population about the same as India. Also, India does a large trade with China, and has a significant trade deficit of about 7:1.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 6, 2022)

China's One Child policy has created a demographic arc that will see India surpass China in a few years. Demography is destiny.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 6, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> China's One Child policy has created a demographic arc that will see India surpass China in a few years. Demography is destiny.


And destiny is all (apologies to Uhtred of Babbenburg).

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## GrauGeist (Sep 6, 2022)

I find that many younger people tend to lean toward "diplomacy instead of guns" with the current Ukraine situation.

They have lived in a time where war is a distant news headline and the quality of life is at an all time high.

Older folks (like myself) were the children and grandchildren of people who weathered the great depression only to get sucked into a very dangerous global war, where the stakes were high and losing against despots was not an option.
Growing up, Russia was a very real threat (I was born during the Missile Crisis) and I remember clearly, the nuclear attack drills in school and the wail of the air raid siren tests when I was a kid.

Putin's nibbling away at former Soviet sattelites and an open assault on another such former satellite comes right out of the pages of the middle 20th century - today's people do not understand that you cannot negotiate with such a person who'll smile, shake your hand, sign whatever treaty you put before them and then use that treaty as toilet paper as they proceed to carry out their conquest.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Putin's nibbling away at former Soviet sattelites amd an open assault on anotjer such former satellite comes rifht out of the pages of the middle 20th century - today's people do not understand that you cannot negotiate with such a person who'll smile, shake your hand, sign whatever treaty you put before them and then use that treaty as toilet paper as they proceed to carry out their conquest.


Starve aggressors, don't feed them! Stuff their mouths with a taste of their own "medicine". Let 'em reap what they sow.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Growing up, Russia was a very real threat (I was born during the Missile Crisis) and I remember clearly, the nuclear attack drills in school and the wall of the air raid siren tests when I was a kid.


Me too, but I date from the bomber crisis, and grew up to the strains of "duck and cover" and the two tone wail of the air raid siren. Fallout shelter in the school basement, complete with Civil Defense supplies (including WWII 10th Mountain Division skis). Tense times during the Cuban missile standoff. Local airport hosting B47s and KC97s. Air Guard F89s on 24 hr cockpit alert armed with Genie nuke AAMs. B52 base across the lake likely high on Kruschev's target list.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 7, 2022)

I remember the skies being full of Air Force planes flying really low and fast over the skies Sheepshead Bay during The Missile Crisis. They were probably Navy but I was seven. Air raid sirens and duck and cover drills were the best parts of school. Good times!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> China's One Child policy has created a demographic arc that will see India surpass China in a few years. Demography is destiny.



... if you have the economy to support it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Starve aggressors, don't feed them! Stuff their mouths with a taste of their own "medicine". Let 'em reap what they sow.



I grew up attending eight schools in twelve years of basic education. As a result, always the new kid, I was often a target for bullies. My dad taught me early that when I'm confronted with a bully, the only real answer was fighting back. Not because fighting was good or anything, but rather because bullies don't really want a fight. They want a victory without a fight.

Refusing to be intimidated, and them catching a bloody nose or two in the process, may not cure them of bullying, but it'll goddamned well teach them to leave you alone.

He'd sometimes say "If you want a scrap, you'd better pack a lunch, 'cause we're gonna be here a while."

It worked for me, and I'm grateful he was there with this advice. "I walk in fear of no man." _Slava Ukrainia._

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## GrauGeist (Sep 7, 2022)

слава Украйна !

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> слава Украйна !



Their fortitude is amazing. What's that Shakespeare line, about every man here shall stand a-tiptoe? These guys get it.


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## drgondog (Sep 7, 2022)

Interesting article for some..






Europe's Nightmare Scenario Comes True: Energy Bills To Rise By €2 Trillion, Will Reach 20% Of Disposable Income | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com













Italy’s Salvini Breaks Ranks: ‘End Energy Sanctions Against Russia Because We Are On Our Knees’


Breaking News and Information with a strong bias for telling the truth. Censored news and analysis that you won't find anywhere else.



www.newswars.com

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## drgondog (Sep 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I grew up attending eight schools in twelve years of basic education. As a result, always the new kid, I was often a target for bullies. My dad taught me early that when I'm confronted with a bully, the only real answer was fighting back. Not because fighting was good or anything, but rather because bullies don't really want a fight. They want a victory without a fight.
> 
> Refusing to be intimidated, and them catching a bloody nose or two in the process, may not cure them of bullying, but it'll goddamned well teach them to leave you alone.
> 
> ...


As an USAF fighter pilot brat I lived in 18 houses in 22 years. Similar experiences re: Bully's. One was particularly delighted in pointing out that I 'talked Southern'. I learned to box early and was pretty good at it. As to interesting times - dad was recalled when we lived in Miami (circa Oct 1962) when I was a senior - to relocate TDY at Homestead AFB about 20mi south of our house. Homestead had 2xF-105 on 24 hour ready alert with Mk 62 (IIRC), plus a standby squadron on 15min alert.

'Interesting times' are here again, but so much more complex, nuance-wise.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Interesting article for some..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Russia has turned off the taps. Even if Italy unilaterally wanted to buy Russian gas and oil how will they get it.

And Italy needs to understand, if Ukraine falls, Putin will not stop there.


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## drgondog (Sep 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia has turned off the taps. Even if Italy unilaterally wanted to buy Russian gas and oil how will they get it.
> 
> And Italy needs to understand, if Ukraine falls, Putin will not stop there.


I suspect that he believes Italy will fall much sooner and that relative to the People of Italy, Now, and heaing into winter that Ukraine/Russia outcome is secondary?

You really think Russia thinks it's a good idea to attack any country with the current Ukraine experience in hand? I would never say Never, but winning a kinetic war in Ukraine is the first step down a long Afghanistan road - just to stop the bleeding during phase 'Operation Asymmetric War' in Ukraine which would come next.

On the surface China is better off than the West, but we are still waiting for the other shoe to drop as their housing financial world unravels...

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

drgondog said:


> On the surface China is better off than the West, but we are still waiting for the other shoe to drop as their housing financial world unravels...


China has taken a bizarre turn. In the early 2000s they sought global respectability, gaining the Olympics, advancing 5G across the globe, etc. And now the place is going to hell, with domestic unrest due to a ponzi-scheme economy and disenchanted youth, and a looming environmental catastrophe, all leading to foreign adventurism and military/territorial expansionism. On the latter, if Taiwan is denied them, China will look northward to its demonstrably incompetent and weak neighbour. In China's mind, if Russia cannot roll over Ukraine, they do not deserve peace and security in the east.

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## Frog (Sep 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> China has taken a bizarre turn. In the early 2000s they sought global respectability, gaining the Olympics, advancing 5G across the globe, etc. And now the place is going to hell, with domestic unrest due to a ponzi-scheme economy and disenchanted youth, and a looming environmental catastrophe, all leading to foreign adventurism and military/territorial expansionism. On the latter, if Taiwan is denied them, China will look northward to its demonstrably incompetent and weak neighbour. In China's mind, if Russia cannot roll over Ukraine, they do not deserve peace and security in the east.



Add to the Chinese scheme a demography going down south.
The joke is will they become prospeous before getting old ?


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## Dimlee (Sep 7, 2022)

Two Ukrainian generals, Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi, about the war, the next campaign and the centers of gravity.









Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023: Ukraine’s perspective


How long the war could last and how can Ukraine win it — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net





One interesting hint: 
_"...the successful efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to physically transfer the zone of hostilities to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. This was done by a series of successful *missile strikes* on the enemy's Crimea-based air bases, first of all, the Saki airfield"._
And now we have to guess again: what kind of missiles, if none can reach Saki from the Ukrainian-controlled territory? Harpoons (Neptuns) air-launched? Mysterious Hrim? ATACMS from the black market? Ah, come on, generals, stop teasing us...

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## Mike Williams (Sep 7, 2022)

Ummm. are you guys aware of the Kharkiv area counter offensive? Looks promising so far.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 7, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> Ummm. are you guys aware of the Kharkiv area counter offensive? Looks promising so far.
> 
> View attachment 685703




It was mentioned yesterday but there isn't much out there in the media. Your report is the most detailed I've seen to-date (with the caveat that it's a tweet from an unofficial source).

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## Mike Williams (Sep 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It was mentioned yesterday but there isn't much out there in the media. Your report is the most detailed I've seen to-date (with the caveat that it's a tweet from an unofficial source).



I just recently "discovered" twitter and don't even have an account, however, there are a few informative guys closely tracking developments, such as this one:



https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3



That said, I find the ISW site and map to be reliable and useful, even if a bit conservative and little behind the tip of the spearhead. Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

I'm hoping that the Ukrainians can reach and take back Kup'yans'k - Google Maps with it's important rail hub. That seems like it may be the goal of their thrust in this area and would be an extremely significant gain.

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## Mike Williams (Sep 7, 2022)

Ukrainians are using GPS guided M982 Excalibur artillery shells. I saw some drone footage that made me wonder. Awesome.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 7, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I just recently "discovered" twitter and don't even have an account, however, there are a few informative guys closely tracking developments, such as this one:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep...this does look like a decent offensive, with opportunities to divide Russian forces and pin those in the south against the river. Hoping (a) that these movements are real, and (b) that they continue to succeed.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 7, 2022)

Out Of Missiles! Russia Is Left With ‘Limited Stock’ Of Hypersonic Weapons Due To Microchip Shortage - Ukraine


A few months into the war, Ukraine claimed that most Russian missiles and other critical military hardware were equipped with West-supplied microchips. After losing more missiles than initially anticipated, Moscow could be looking to acquire these semiconductor microchips, according to reports...




eurasiantimes.com

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 7, 2022)

It appears the Russians are pushing back the Ukrainians, just in the wrong direction.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 7, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> It appears the Russians are pushing back the Ukrainians, just in the wrong direction.



Rather like Pan Am never making a loss...but having several years of negative profits.

Remember....it's all going to plan for the Russians!

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 7, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> Ummm. are you guys aware of the Kharkiv area counter offensive? Looks promising so far.
> 
> View attachment 685703




Another source with similar info.
Apparently Kharkiv offensive caught Russians off-guard and has advanced 20-30 Km into Russian controlled territory. It seems the objective might be to cut off communication routes to Izium.

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Italy’s Salvini Breaks Ranks: ‘End Energy Sanctions Against Russia Because We Are On Our Knees’
> 
> 
> Breaking News and Information with a strong bias for telling the truth. Censored news and analysis that you won't find anywhere else.
> ...


Matteo Salvini is a long term supporter of Putin and a wanna-be fascist so I am hardly surprised he comes out with garbage such as this.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> Matteo Salvini is a long term supporter of Putin and a wanna-be fascist so I am hardly surprised he comes out with garbage such as this.


Italy always has a knack of observing the field and then choosing the wrong side. Perhaps Salvini wants to reconstitute the ARMIR, but facing the other direction this time.

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

Ukraine conflict: THeMIS robot delivered to Kyiv as Russia announces bounty for system's capture


Janes has received confirmation of the delivery of a THeMIS unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) to Ukraine after images of the system being delivered emerged on a number of...



www.janes.com

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

The geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine by Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb AM

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

Three myths about the global energy crisis


Russia is not winning the battle for supplies nor disrupting efforts on climate change and clean power. Find out more.




financialpost.com

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

Putin warns West of total cut to energy supplies


Addressing the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok the Russian leader reaffirms his commitment to Crimea while Ukraine ramps up offensives in the region.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

Ukrainian military showed the British Stormer HVM with Starstreak missiles at the front for the first time


This week, the British Minister of Defense announced that Ukraine has already received a shipment of Stormer HVM air defense systems. The military showed the British air defense system on the frontline for the first time.




gagadget.com

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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)




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## GTX (Sep 7, 2022)

Ukrainian troops shoot Su-25 fighter jet out of the sky


Britain's defence ministry said there has been heavy fighting on three fronts: in the north, near Kharkiv; in the east in the Donbas; and in the south in Kherson Oblast




www.dailymail.co.uk


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## SaparotRob (Sep 7, 2022)

GTX said:


>



I like this channel.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> Three myths about the global energy crisis
> 
> 
> Russia is not winning the battle for supplies nor disrupting efforts on climate change and clean power. Find out more.
> ...


I do look forward to a future where the West no longer relies on failed Russian and other autocrats, failed Latam states and Islamists for its energy needs. Russia is foolishly pushing us all in that direction, when fossil fuels will be as relevant as whale oil. The Russians, Nigerians, Venezuelans, Arabs and the rest of this dirtbag crowd can suck it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 7, 2022)

Some bits on the Kharkiv ofensive.








Ukrainian Troops Advance in East as Kyiv Seizes the Initiative


An unexpected Ukrainian military offensive in the east near the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv is gaining ground, testing Russian occupation forces that are also under pressure in southern Ukraine.




www.wsj.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 7, 2022)

Some fresh tweeter news!
Unreliable and unconfirmed, but so encouraging, wish they are true.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 7, 2022)

Got the patch I mentioned 











A Legion of Fellas for the Georgian Legion


Shitposting with great fury, raising cash for the Legion, and freeing all of Ukraine.



legionoffellas.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> On the latter, if Taiwan is denied them, China will look northward to its demonstrably incompetent and weak neighbour. In China's mind, if Russia cannot roll over Ukraine, they do not deserve peace and security in the east.



And the other point is that China's military is largely unblooded, making a salt-water amphibious invasion terribly risky. Meanwhile, they've likely got a pretty good intel picture of Russian capabilities, and even if Ukraine succumbs the Russians will be pretty busy fighting the inevitable insurgency -- which has already started. And while Taiwan has national-prestige issues attached, Irkutsk and Siberia have plentiful resources to pay for the odd adventure or two.

The only real drawback -- and it's a big one -- is the spectre of nuclear war with Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Some fresh tweeter news!
> Unreliable and unconfirmed, but so encouraging, wish they are true.



I hope the UAF don’t end up with a long line of trucks snaking behind them like the Russians had in March.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope the UAF don’t end up with a long line of trucks snaking behind them like the Russians had in March.



It's a better season for logistics; the rainy season hasn't set in yet, and this last winter was mild enough that the ground wasn't frozen in March; it was muddy for the Russian offensive. This ground is dry and solid. now.

And -- my thinking is that the Ukrainians have a lighter logistical tail than the Russians due to interior lines. Combine that with nice, solid ground, and weakened, poorly-motivated Russian forces manning very long defensive lines. It won't be easy, and probably not completely successful, but I think the Ukrainians are doing the right thing by racing the autumn rains and pegging out claims before the weather shuts down mobile warfare for a few months.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's a better season for logistics; the rainy season hasn't set in yet, and this last winter was mild enough that the ground wasn't frozen in March; it was muddy for the Russian offensive. This ground is dry and solid. now.
> 
> And -- my thinking is that the Ukrainians have a lighter logistical tail than the Russians due to interior lines. Combine that with nice, solid ground, and weakened, poorly-motivated Russian forces manning very long defensive lines. It won't be easy, and probably not completely successful, but I think the Ukrainians are doing the right thing by racing the autumn rains and pegging out claims before the weather shuts down mobile warfare for a few months.


I suppose it also helps that there‘s likely two or three MANPADS in the UAF for every one Russian aircraft.

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## fubar57 (Sep 7, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-kherson-crimea-referendum-1.6574030

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I suppose it also helps that there‘s likely two or three MANPADS in the UAF for every one Russian aircraft.



It's almost a pity the Russians didn't learn that lesson from Afghanistan; almost. Paltry supplies of MANPADS, and very little heavier, enabled the Afghans to evict them.

The war-making _materiel_ shipping to Ukraine far outstrips the aid we gave the _mujahadeen_. And the Ukrainians are much better placed to fight a decisive campaign so long as the aid holds up, I think. And even if the Russians should win out, which I strongly doubt, they will face an insurrection which has already started in the occupied provinces. 

I've said it very early in this thread and I stand by it now, that the bear has its own nose in the trap and there's no easy way out. They didn't learn.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 7, 2022)

The thought occurs to me as well that Zelinskyy has had his "we will fight in the fields" moment, and now we're moving into the nuts and bolts of fighting it out. Going from the victory in the Battle of Britain to the struggles of North Africa, by way of analogy.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 7, 2022)

Well, as I've mentioned before, we're seeing the WWII invasion of the Soviet Union in reverse.

The Germans rolled in en masse and steamrolled the Red Army, but their logistics failed them and their assault focus was not flexible.

The Russians were able to stall the Germans long enough to build up their numbers, coupled with lend-lease material and went on the offensive.

The Germans inflicted a few setbacks, but by and large, the Soviets' momentum kept up until they hit Berlin.

This is not to say that Ukraine is going to march on Moscow, but like Finland before, the Ukrainians just want the Russians off their land.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

In one of the tweets linked by GTX, the Ukrainian forces seem to be bypassing towns and cities. They're leaving smaller blocking forces cutting off the orcs. This is on the Kharkiv front. They're avoiding the mistakes Russians made.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> In one of the tweets linked by GTX, the Ukrainian forces seem to be bypassing towns and cities. They're leaving smaller blocking forces cutting off the orcs. This is on the Kharkiv front. They're avoiding the mistakes Russians made.



Well, that's the difference between the objectives of the Ukrainians, which are to preserve and liberate Ukraine, and those of the Russians, which were basically to destroy Ukraine so they could rebuild it as a new add-on to Russia.

Avoiding urban areas provides Ukraine with a two-for-one benefit (1) They avoid getting bogged down clearing house by house and street by street, and (2) they limit destruction of industrial infrastructure, private property, innocent civilians etc.

It seems the Ukrainians are manoeuverists whereas Russian forces are brute force bludgeons (with the emphasis on the "brute").

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## J_P_C (Sep 8, 2022)



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## nuuumannn (Sep 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Going from the victory in the Battle of Britain to the struggles of North Africa, by way of analogy.



Just as long as they don't copy the 'Lean into France' following the Battle of Britain and throw away a whole lot of good fighters and airmen in the process...

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

I was reading that Russian soldiers trying to flee in civilian clothes are being discovered. I can't find the source now, seems to have been deleted.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was reading that Russian soldiers trying to flee in civilian clothes are being discovered. I can't find the source now, seems to have been deleted.



You mean like this? 






(with apologies to Hobbit fans)

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

One of the biggest transformations to the UAF was transforming them from a hierarchical, top-down Soviet style military to a NATO style Mission Command military.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 8, 2022)

Twitter news are becoming overly optimistic with Kharkiv offensive. Some even talk about risk of encirclement on the Izium area.

Anyway today local TV more or less confirmed some of the news: Apparently Ukrainians are rushing towards Kupiansk to cut off supply lines to the strategic city of Izium to the south. Seems they are making clever use of rivers as natural barriers (which makes sense knowing Russian skills crossing rivers).

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 8, 2022)

As I said moral is high. Hope they don't overextend.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

I watched a commentator discuss the war a few days before the actual offensive. He was playing down a quick victory. He did bring up the case of a “catastrophic victory“. 
I wasn’t really paying attention but he brought up Russian forces just collapsing. I don’t remember what he said exactly but I like the term “Catastrophic Victory “. 
Fitting somehow.

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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

Russia forcibly detained and deported Ukrainians to Russia, US says


The US accuses Russia of forcibly deporting between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians, including children, to isolated parts of Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

US announces $2.9 billion in defence aid for Ukraine and other European countries


The Biden administration will provide military financing to Ukraine and 18 of its neighbours, including NATO members and regional security partners "most potentially at risk for future Russian aggression".




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia forcibly detained and deported Ukrainians to Russia, US says
> 
> 
> The US accuses Russia of forcibly deporting between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians, including children, to isolated parts of Russia.
> ...


How can those poor souls ever be repatriated?


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## ThomasP (Sep 8, 2022)

After the war there will be incentives put in place by other nations, like the threat of insurgency/retaliation and suchlike from Ukraine, and more peaceful measures from other nations such as the continuation of/or lifting of sanctions. Hopefully that will work.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> After the war there will be incentives put in place by other nations, like the threat of insurgency/retaliation and suchlike from Ukraine, and more peaceful measures from other nations such as the continuation of/or lifting of sanctions. Hopefully that will work.


But I’m sure it never “officially “ happened. Pertinent information going away. Those involved succumbing to gravity. I agree with you and I want to be wrong.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 8, 2022)

GTX said:


>



One time, travelling highway A1 in Bulgaria (main highway between Sofia and Burgas) just west of Plovdiv, we had two BAF MiG-29s pass overhead, just like seen in the video.

It was pretty cool to see.

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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

Ukraine military chief says 'limited' nuclear war cannot be ruled out


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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

Russian propaganda and media disinformation proven false - Warrior Maven: Center for Military Modernization


Is Russian Propaganda Working Inside Russia?




warriormaven.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

Anyone think Zelenskyy will make it to London for the funeral in about nine days time? It would be quite the sight, Zelenskyy and his wife walking in, when Putin clearly is not welcome.

Zelenskyy hasn't left Ukraine since the invasion, so he's likely to send the Deputy President, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada. He'll need a good Savoy tailor.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How can those poor souls ever be repatriated?



They won't. They will be the modern-day _zeks_.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They won't. They will be the modern-day _zeks_.


Unless the Russians somehow erase their Ukrainian captives' minds, if they're not imprisoned they'll make it back home again when this is over.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

I'm worried that they are in extremely remote Gulags. No phones or electricity, let alone internet.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Unless the Russians somehow erase their Ukrainian captives' minds, if they're not imprisoned they'll make it back home again when this is over.





They don't need to erase any minds; I seriously doubt Putin's Russia will allow these captives to walk freely. They will be imprisoned or placed in remote camps. Russia is big enough that these captives can be easily disappeared. Solzhenitsyn, in _GuLag Archipelago_, documents many hundreds of thousands of foreigners forced into the camp system never to resurface. Putin's regime will have no problem lying with a straight face that "we never saw these people, we don't know what you're talking about", and meanwhile these folks will be dying in Kolyma or some other forgotten mining center/lumber field etc.

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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

Britain giving Ukraine minehunter drones to clear coastline


Six autonomous minehunting vehicles will be sent to Ukraine to help detect Russian mines in the nation's coastal waters.




ukdefencejournal.org.uk

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## GTX (Sep 8, 2022)

Will donate Hellfire missiles and night vision equipment to Ukraine


Norway will donate Hellfire missiles to Ukraine. The donation includes approximately 160 missiles, launching pads and guidance units. Ukraine will also receive night-vision equipment drawn from Armed Forces inventories.




www.regjeringen.no

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

_
KYIV, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Ukraine has recaptured more than 700 sq km (270 sq miles) of its territory in the east and south during a lightning counteroffensive, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday, offering the first official assessment of the operation.

The gains, if confirmed and held, would be a serious blow for Russia, which Western intelligence services say has suffered huge casualties. They would also represent a big boost for Kyiv, which is keen to show its Western backers that it can change the facts on the ground by force and deserves continued support._









Ukrainian general says huge gains made in lightning counteroffensive


Ukraine has recaptured more than 700 sq km (270 sq miles) of its territory in the east and south during a lightning counteroffensive, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday, offering the first official assessment of the operation.




www.reuters.com

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## Glider (Sep 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Ukraine has recaptured more than 700 sq km (270 sq miles) of its territory in the east and south during a lightning counteroffensive, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday, offering the first official assessment of the operation.
> 
> The gains, if confirmed and held, would be a serious blow for Russia, which Western intelligence services say has suffered huge casualties. They would also represent a big boost for Kyiv, which is keen to show its Western backers that it can change the facts on the ground by force and deserves continued support._
> 
> ...


Message from Putin to all Russian people.

Don't worry, we have them where we want them, it's all going according to plan

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

Don't get too confident. Sergei Shoigu will know what to do.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 8, 2022)

Glider said:


> Message from Putin to all Russian people.
> 
> Don't worry, we have them where we want them, it's all going according to plan


Right.

*Flips through Hitler's playbook*

Ok, the second phase of this "special operation" should be "случай cиний" (case blue).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Right.
> 
> *Flips through Hitler's playbook*
> 
> Ok, the second phase of this "special operation" should be "случай cиний" (case blue).



Somewhat graphic, but pertinent



Spoiler

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## Mike Williams (Sep 8, 2022)

Kharkiv offensive is looking really good so far.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

Russians are beginning to bicker.









‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures


Military pro-war bloggers with frontline contacts offer rare insight into Russia’s performance on ground




www.theguardian.com





Meanwhile, the Ukrainians ride on!

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## Mike Williams (Sep 8, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

Blyskavychna viyna!

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 8, 2022)

The Humvees reminded of the show Rat Patrol

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## fubar57 (Sep 8, 2022)

Loved that show

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

Watching the infantryman charge into the smoke ... wow.

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## manta22 (Sep 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> One time, travelling highway A1 in Bulgaria (main highway between Sofia and Burgas) just west of Plovdiv, we had two BAF MiG-29s pass overhead, just like seen in the video.
> 
> It was pretty cool to see.


This was an unexpected very low pass!


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## GrauGeist (Sep 8, 2022)

The rapid success of the Ukrainian offensive, the way their fronts are oriented complete with the bypassing and isolating pockets of Russians, looks to be something out of either Patton's or Rommel's book.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Blyskavychna viyna!


WHAT HE SAID!!!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 8, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


>




This gives so me so much hope.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 8, 2022)

I’ve seen word of Moldova making moves to re-take Transnistria. Will Georgia be next to move on Russian seized areas?









People in Transnistria refuse to sign contracts with Russian army Ukrainian Intelligence


ALONA MAZURENKO - THURSDAY, 8 SEPTEMBER 2022, 21:44 The residents of Transnistria [a self-proclaimed breakaway state that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova] refuse to sign contracts with the Russian army, and there is mass desertion in the "operational group of [Russian] troops"...




news.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The rapid success of the Ukrainian offensive, the way their fronts are oriented complete with the bypassing and isolating pockets of Russians, looks to be something out of either Patton's or Rommel's book.



I think they're imposing a knight's-fork upon the Russians. If the Ukrainians have reserves, and they likely do for a large pair of offensives, given their interior lines they may be able to switch their smaller forces between fronts,_ a la_ General von François at Tannenberg -- albeit on a larger geographical scale.

I think the Ukrainians recapturing Kherson is critical. If that happens, the Russians will have to choose who is their favorite child, the Eastern or Southern front.

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## fubar57 (Sep 8, 2022)

When I first saw this map, without reading, I thought it was a classic pincer operation

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 8, 2022)

ISW is reporting Russian military bloggers are voicing concern that the two main supply lines going south to Izyum and Kupiyansk are being threatened by the Ukranian advance.

If these are cut, the whole of the Russian front line west and south of Kupiyansk becomes vulnerable. Ukraine could pivot southwards and roll up 50 or 60 km worth of territory in relatively short order. Basically retake everything to the west of the Oskil river.

That then gives them a solid natural obstacle on their flank, to allow for drives further east-southeast towards Rubizhen/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. 

Alternatively, there's speculation they could get REALLY ambitious and head further east into Luhask Oblast and attempt to cut some more supply lines heading south and west out of Russia. That's an advance of a further 80-100km though.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 8, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 686031​
> When I first saw this map, without reading, I thought it was a classic pincer operation


Now that you mention it.


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## J_P_C (Sep 9, 2022)

no more comments needed...

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## ThomasP (Sep 9, 2022)

""

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I remember the skies being full of Air Force planes flying really low and fast over the skies Sheepshead Bay during The Missile Crisis. They were probably Navy but I was seven. Air raid sirens and duck and cover drills were the best parts of school. Good times!


Floyd Bennet Field was a Naval Air Station back then.

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## ThomasP (Sep 9, 2022)

I do not know how relevant this is, but . . .

"Deputies in St. Petersburg suggest State Duma charge Putin with high treason"

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I do not know how relevant this is, but . . .
> 
> "Deputies in St. Petersburg suggest State Duma charge Putin with high treason"


Do those deputies plan to go outside Rusia any time soon or they are out already ?

While the reason behind the charge has merit, the charge is obviously going nowhere

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## J_P_C (Sep 9, 2022)

welllllllll..... now ukrainians have to feed this guy

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## drgondog (Sep 9, 2022)

Interesting article "Breton Woods - new version", about Putin/China collaboration dethroning the Dollar. Also note global push to straighten out Bank Ballance sheets from paper gold. There are far more 'gold markers' than physical gold across the globe.









Putin's 12,000 Tonne Gold Hoard Sets The Stage For Asian Bretton Woods And The New Moscow Gold Standard - King World News


Putin's 12,000 tonne gold hoard has set the stage for an Asian Bretton Woods and the New Moscow Gold Standard.




kingworldnews.com


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> welllllllll..... now ukrainians have to feed this guy



In Twitterworld are some claims that is not the same person due to the general been bald.

Others say that is the same person looking at the ears form.

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## J_P_C (Sep 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> In Twitterworld are some claims that is not the same person due to the general been bald.
> 
> Others say that is the same person looking at the era form.


we will see soon - if it is Sychevoy Ukrainians have perfect person to trade him for soldiers from Mariupol


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## buffnut453 (Sep 9, 2022)

Ukraine has retaken 1,000 square kilometres in a week - Zelensky


Kyiv says a lightning counter-offensive has recaptured vast swathes of territory in its south and east.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine has retaken 1,000 square kilometres in a week - Zelensky
> 
> 
> Kyiv says a lightning counter-offensive has recaptured vast swathes of territory in its south and east.
> ...


These BBC maps are inaccurately showing arrows indicating Russian advances. There have been no significant Russian advances in weeks. Meanwhile, except for two inaccurate/obsolete purple arrows BEHIND Kharkiv, the map doesn't have arrows indicating Ukrainian advances.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> These BBC maps are inaccurately showing arrows indicating Russian advances. There have been no significant Russian advances in weeks. Meanwhile, except for two inaccurate/obsolete purple arrows BEHIND Kharkiv, the map doesn't have arrows indicating Ukrainian advances.



I know...I actually wrote to the BBC to complain about the maps. The definitions in the key are misleading and they're often out of date. For example, the article is about events in the past week and yet the map is dated 29 August. Pretty shoddy, frankly. I'm not expecting a reply from the Beeb...they're rather preoccupied by the Queen's passing.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> welllllllll..... now ukrainians have to feed this guy



Apparently this has been debunked. He's not the general. Some Colonel apparently.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Floyd Bennet Field was a Naval Air Station back then.


I know. My friends and would bicycle over the Marine Park Bridge (now the Gil Hodges Bridge) and count the KC-97s, A-4s and Neptune P2Vs. My Sea Explorer Ship was sponsored by NASNY.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> ISW is reporting Russian military bloggers are voicing concern that the two main supply lines going south to Izyum and Kupiyansk are being threatened by the Ukranian advance.
> 
> If these are cut, the whole of the Russian front line west and south of Kupiyansk becomes vulnerable. Ukraine could pivot southwards and roll up 50 or 60 km worth of territory in relatively short order. Basically retake everything to the west of the Oskil river.
> 
> ...


I'm looking forward to the Ukrainian liberation of the Duchy of St. Petersburg.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> we will see soon - if it is Sychevoy Ukrainians have perfect person to trade him for soldiers from Mariupol


Yes. I'm sure putler has great concern for those who have served him well.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Yes. I'm sure putler has great concern for those who have served him well.


Indeed. Putin hasn't been asking for the return of Viktor Medvedchuk. 









Who is Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin’s main man in Ukraine?


Medvedchuk was recently captured by Ukrainian forces having fled house arrest soon after the war began.




www.aljazeera.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> no more comments needed...



Interestingly, those women are speaking Russian, not Ukrainian. Their gratitude for these soldiers liberating them calls BS on the Russian narrative about liberating Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 9, 2022)

Being captured by the enemy is usually considered an embarrassment and failure by egomaniacs like Putin.

Look how Stalin treated Red Army personnel that were captured by the Germans.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 686031​
> When I first saw this map, without reading, I thought it was a classic pincer operation


Notice the use of rivers and terrain that I mentioned earlier. The red salient is isolated form the rest by a river, so in practice in not a salient but a pocket.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Sep 9, 2022)

They should leave it open to highly degreed folks and their families to help the Russian brain drain.

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## fubar57 (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Notice the use of rivers and terrain that I mentioned earlier. The red salient is isolated form the rest by a river, so in practice in not a salient but a pocket.


Notice I said, “…..without reading….”

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They should leave it open to highly degreed folks and their families to help the Russian brain drain.


Not sure if a brain drain is a good idea.

In one hand, i make it more difficult for Rusia to overcome the hardships and be more dangerous in the future.

In the other one, when the time to change comes, there will be nobody with an open mind to steer in a better direction, only zealots to double the bet without counterbalance. Perchas even more dangerous.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Notice I said, “…..without reading….”



Not picking on you, sorry if it seemed so. I was just highlighting the clever use of rivers by UAF

Anyway, that map seems to evolve lightning fast. This is the latest twitter map, not sure how accurate and reliable is. But there are pictures circulating of UAF troops on the outskirts of Kupyansk

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## GrauGeist (Sep 9, 2022)

Good artical on why things have been quiet in Moldova, so far:









Transdniestria, Moldova, and Russia’s War in Ukraine


Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova.




carnegieendowment.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

Anyone can see some similarities with this other map 80 years ago, hope the Ukrainians stop before Stalingrad

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Good artical on why things have been quiet in Moldova, so far:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 9, 2022)

_
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine, according to a newly downgraded U.S. intelligence finding.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Tuesday that "the information that we have is that Russia has specifically asked for ammunition." He said the U.S. has seen indications Russia approached North Korea, but said he had no other details, including whether money has changed hands or any shipments are in progress.

"It does demonstrate and is indicative of the situation that Russia finds itself in, in terms of its logistics and sustainment capabilities as it relates to Ukraine," said Ryder, in the administration's first public comments on the intelligence assessment. "We assess that things are not going well on that front for Russia."

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said there were no indications that the arms purchase had actually occurred yet or that any North Korean munitions had made it onto the Ukrainian battlefield. Still, he said the talks alone were "just another indication of how desperate Putin's becoming."_









US: Russia to buy rockets, artillery shells from North Korea


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine , according to a newly downgraded U.S.




apnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 9, 2022)

And --

_
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin praised Ukraine's "demonstrable success" in its ongoing counteroffensive against Russian troops in the southern Kherson region during a meeting outlining the contents of the United States' latest military aid package to Ukraine.

Austin's remarks came at the opening of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an organization of Western allies created to coordinate and plan long-term aid to Ukraine, at the United States' Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany. The secretary of defense emphasized that the war had now reached a "key moment," adding that Kyiv's Western backers "need … to position [themselves] to sustain Ukraine's brave defenders for the long haul."

"Now we're seeing the demonstrable success of our common efforts on the battlefield," Austin added, referencing the ongoing counteroffensive. He also announced that an additional $675 million in military equipment, including 105mm howitzers and GMLRS precision-guided rockets, had been set aside for Ukraine by the Biden administration, noting that it had been the "twentieth drawdown of equipment from U.S. stocks for Ukraine since last August."_









Pentagon Praises ‘Demonstrable Success’ of Kherson Counteroffensive


As part of further aid to Ukraine, Austin recommended that U.S. allies pursue “innovative” ways of “reinvigorating [the West’s] defense industrial bases to match both Ukraine[‘s] priorities and our own needs.”




nationalinterest.org





"Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition."

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## ThomasP (Sep 9, 2022)

re Russia buying ammunition from North Korea

It is kind of interesting how the interplay of the sanctions against Russia and North Korea are working out.

In 2015 Russia and NK agreed to use the ruble for all of their trade cash payments with each other.

Sanctions imposed in 2017 (universally approved by the UN security council which includes Russia) allow no more than 500,000 barrels or refined oil products/year to be exported to NK. This amounts to the equivalent of about 1 USgal/person in NK. Russia has been providing an additional ~25% over the sanctions through grey market trade. Indigenous oil refining production amounts to less than .1 USgal/person.

The sanctions against Russia regarding trade have grossly reduced the RF exports of oil, thus reducing their ability to purchase goods from other countries.

The recent inflation of the ruble in Russia and devaluation of the ruble worldwide has significantly reduced the amount of goods a ruble can buy, including between Russia and NK.

NK has just recently reached the point where they are unable to pay for the additional oil they have been receiving from Russia through the grey market.

Russia is hurting for lack of ability to purchase goods.

Hence, Russia has effectively agreed to supply oil for free to NK and accept military munitions in trade.

NK now has nuclear weapons, and no longer feels as much need for massive stockpiles of ammunition to prevent invasion. So NK has agreed to draw down their conventional ammunition stocks.

Russia had recently announced that there would be 100,000 NK personnel coming to Ukraine to help rebuild the damage done in the eastern separatist regions.

Because of the devaluation of the ruble, Russia is unable to offer the desired NK personnel a living/worthwhile wage via payment in rubles.

The average NK person has no use for oil, and is apparently unwilling to work for something that they cannot use. (The military uses ~1/2 of all oil products that NK imports, industry accounts for the vast majority of the rest.)

The NK government is therefore having serious problems recruiting personnel to send to Ukraine.

In some ways, this is almost like a tragi-comedy farce movie.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re Russia buying ammunition from North Korea
> 
> It is kind of interesting how the interplay of the sanctions against Russia and North Korea are working out.
> 
> ...



Right, sanctioned countries tend to be driven into each others' arms. I wasn't aware the ruble was still suffering so, given recent Russian pronouncements about its domestic stabilization, but it stands to reason that Russia cannot control its international market value.

I find it interesting what you say about DPRK recruitment of laborers for Ukrainian duty. I had assumed they would simply find the workers and they'd be voluntold. I'd also assumed that many would be eager simply for the rations.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 9, 2022)

That's going to be an issue as it appears that the Russian solders themselves are not getting enough rations.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The NK government is therefore having serious problems recruiting personnel to send to Ukraine.


Kind of surprising this.

I'm with 

 Thumpalumpacus
in the assumption of use of forced labour but in a second thought, it could be a great risky for NK to send 'enemies of the state' to the Donbass, were they could attempt to flee to the west and have a fair chance of success due to the porous frontline.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Kind of surprising this.
> 
> I'm with
> 
> ...



I wasn't thinking about "enemies of the state" being impressed, but simply impressing civilians with construction experience. Of course, the risk of defection would still be high, I'd think.

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## ThomasP (Sep 9, 2022)

The matter of starvation in North Korea is very overused and largely propagandistic in nature.

The only real famine/mass starvation event in recent NK history occurred in the 1990s (1995-1998? I think). It was not the result of the nature of the NK government, but was simply the result of a series of massive rainfalls and flooding that occurred in 1995. It is estimated that over 70% of the nation's rice crop was destroyed. Very few countries are in a position to handle such natural disasters.

In general, most of the references to the NK people starving are references to this event.

Also the propagandistic focus of the NK government has instilled in the average person a fear of the outside world. While the standard of living in NK is not particularly high, the majority of the people are what I think is usually referred to as 'provincial', and like most peoples they want to stay home and feel they are secure. Going to a strange country, far away, into a war zone, at the behest of a foreign government that they have no real reason to trust, . . .? Apparently, it is not an easy sell.

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## GTX (Sep 9, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 9, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

I had a thought (I know, right?). When Russia goes around peddling their crap to third world nations, Ukraine should offer the same stuff for free and throw in fifty Hryvnia just to haul it away. What would that do for putler's bottom line?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I had a thought (I know, right?). When Russia goes around peddling their crap to third world nations, Ukraine should offer the same stuff for free and throw in fifty Hryvnia just to haul it away. What would that do for putler's bottom line?



Ask the Tractor Brigade -- they know what they have on stock, and Top Men say that they're willing to haggle..

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

Russian AFVs are not having a good day.









FEX.NET







fex.net

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

The progress here is just incredible.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 9, 2022)

One of our customers came in today after returning from a trip to Ukraine. He said morale over there is sky high. Shared pictures of some of the devestation, and some shrapnel he brought back.

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## manta22 (Sep 9, 2022)

Did you see the warning sign about picking up souvenirs in the video I posted?

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

Latest map I've seen



In addition there are rumors of UAF atacking Izium from the south. If true it's an exact repeat of operation Fredericus II
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Latest map I've seen
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ten thousand POWs will be good leverage to recover the Mariupol defenders and civilians forcibly deported to Russia. Putin might not want the POWs back, but upon seeing them marched through Kyiv, their families will.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russian AFVs are not having a good day.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Tanks neither

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russian AFVs are not having a good day.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Typical NATO propaganda. It is a Russian Naval training film on how to go down with the ship.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

“Almost” official 50 thousand: Russia published information about the losses of the army in Ukraine


The published document is dated 08/26/2022, that is, it does not include data before the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian Federation published data on losses in Ukraine …




ukrainetoday.org

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> “Almost” official 50 thousand: Russia published information about the losses of the army in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The published document is dated 08/26/2022, that is, it does not include data before the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian Federation published data on losses in Ukraine …
> ...


It’s a good website (no title)

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ten thousand POWs will be good leverage to recover the Mariupol defenders and civilians forcibly deported to Russia. Putin might not want the POWs back, but upon seeing them marched through Kyiv, their families will.


Let's just hope the Russian people get to see it. How putler will explain to the world that this is going all to plan will be fun.


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Latest map I've seen
> 
> 
> 
> ...



ISW is reporting both, the extend of the advances and the attacks to Izium from the south

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## GrauGeist (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Tanks neither



And of course, we know who's waiting around the corner for that tank...

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Tanks neither



Did you scroll down and the leaked Ukrainian Kherson offensive?

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> “Almost” official 50 thousand: Russia published information about the losses of the army in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The published document is dated 08/26/2022, that is, it does not include data before the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian Federation published data on losses in Ukraine …
> ...


That is not what I was expecting. I thought the Ukrainian provided casualty numbers were mostly of separatists and not Russians. Wow, that's a lotta' Ladas.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And of course, we know who's waiting around the corner for that tank...
> 
> View attachment 686167


We supply Ukraine with HIMARS and they supply us with their tractor forces.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 9, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did you scroll down and the leaked Ukrainian Kherson offensive?


That's just someone's imagination.

You can be sure that Ukraine will not step foot on Russian soil - their goal is to expel the Russian invaders from their homeland, nothing more.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> You can be sure that Ukraine will not step foot on Russian soil


Definitely. I’m sure that’s demand #1 from NATO.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 9, 2022)

I'm not sure if NATO has "demanded" anything like that, the U.S. had reservations about sending long range munitions, which is rather silly, because the distances involved wouldn't require a long range munition to reach Russia proper.

Zelensky has stated time and again that their goal is to expel the invaders and his general staff (which is showing to be extremely competent) knows that to attack Russia would firstly, play into Putin's rhetoric and secondly, cause escalation that might provoke Putin to use tactical nukes.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's just someone's imagination.
> 
> You can be sure that Ukraine will not step foot on Russian soil - their goal is to expel the Russian invaders from their homeland, nothing more.


Dave, I know. I nearly soiled myself laughing at that Grand Tour. I don't hold Kherson Cat to the same level of veracity as I would Mainstream News.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

So, having just watched a bunch of stuff on the counter offensive, I checked out what the other side was saying. It seems Russia is in the best possible position. I tried to follow his reasoning but decided I was due back on Earth.


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## Glider (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s a good website (no title)


If this is even close to correct, then the Russian losses are huge. I presume that Russian losses would exclude those from the 'liberated area's' captured in 2014 which would make the losses scary, very scary. With 50,000 dead you are looking at approx 200,000 dead and wounded

On a second thought. There can be no doubt that these two attacks will be sucking in the forces of both sides. Remembering that Russia never had enough troops to take over and control the whole of Ukraine. The losses and forced concentration in those two areas, must leave huge areas where Russia can have almost no control at all, giving partisan or other special forces practically unlimited opportunities for making trouble.

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## ThomasP (Sep 10, 2022)

re RF losses

Since the post-Vietnam era, losses for modern 1st world ground forces have been about 1 dead per 2 wounded seriously enough to not be able to return to combat (or at least not anytime soon). How we should count Russia in terms of modern combat medical services is open to question.

Although Jagdflieger pushed for the idea that a large amount of the initial fighting was being carried out by separatist forces, this does not seem to be correct. All(?) of the advances have been carried out by Russian troops, with various Russian units deployed to hold the territories gained. The separatist forces have been fighting mainly in defensive positions in the east. The last that I heard there are only 2 actual separatist combat units operating outside of the Donbas/Donetsk/Luhansk areas, although there are a few small specialist units and some contingents acting in support roles for the RF. An example is that a fair amount of the supply convoy duties include separatist personnel. For the most part only volunteers from the separatist areas are being used in combat outside of the Donbas/Donetsk/Luhansk, and there does not appear to be a large number of volunteers.

The last number for separatist forces KIA that I have seen is a little over 7,000 since 24 February. But it should be noted that official records for the separatist forces are sketchy, ie even the separatist governments are uncertain as to what is going on with their own forces. There have been multiple recent cases where communication was lost with separatist units, and when someone was sent to find out why coms were down they found the positions/areas deserted and no trace of the personnel assigned, only abandoned equipment.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 10, 2022)

Alien abduction?
Scully!!!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 10, 2022)

I have always been suspect of the "separatists", as these were supposedly Ukrainians that were loyal to Russia.

Considering that the vast majority of Ukrainians are devoted to their country, these large number of "separatists" seemed a bit suspect.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 10, 2022)

That's what the Ukrainians have been saying since 2014.

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## ThomasP (Sep 10, 2022)

I am still continuously struck by how much the Ukraine looks like rural Minnesota during my childhood (1960s-1970s).


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## GrauGeist (Sep 10, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I am still continuously struck by how much the Ukraine looks like rural Minnesota during my childhood (1960s-1970s).


You should cruise through California's Central Valley - it is identical to Bulgaria's central valley and large areas of Ukraine.

Complete with sunflowers as far as the eye can see.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Did you scroll down and the leaked Ukrainian Kherson offensive?


No but I have seen that somewhere else. 

With your permission I copy here, some humor is always healthy

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's just someone's imagination.
> 
> You can be sure that Ukraine will not step foot on Russian soil - their goal is to expel the Russian invaders from their homeland, nothing more.


For me it's obvious that is someone sense of humor. That is how i get it at least.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Russian tank ace crowned world champion killed in real war


Bato Basanov, 25, was in a record-breaking tank biathlon team that performed in war games in front of defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the army general staff Valery Gerasimov



www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Denniss (Sep 10, 2022)

They were probably not told that real enemies shoot back, not waiting to be shot at like in these games

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

How goes the air war?

Any more word on how the Ukrainian Air Force is doing in the east and south?









Ukrainian aircraft hit 25 strong points and concentrations of Russians in one day Luhansk Oblast Military Administration


ROMAN PETRENKO - SATURDAY, 10 SEPTEMBER 2022, 08:38 Ukrainian combat aircraft carried out 33 strikes on amassments of Russian troops and their strong points on 9 September, in order to support the actions of ground forces.




news.yahoo.com





If there was ever a time for the nearly nonexistent Russian Air Force to make a contribution it’s now. Of course, the UAF will be waiting.









Ukraines air defence system shoots down Russian missiles and aircraft worth US$ 157.5 million in three days


VALENTYNA ROMANENKO - SATURDAY, 10 SEPTEMBER 2022, 10:03 In just three days, Ukrainian defenders have destroyed Russian air targets worth 157.5 million US dollars in total. Source: press service of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Quote: "In just three days of the war, the occupiers...




news.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

Ukraine is reminding more and more like Israel. When I was there in 2006 I was impressed by the women soldiers everywhere. I will admit I found many to be beautiful, but that’s just my young self, and I most felt impressed that the whole nation, women and men were ready to defend their nation and people. It’s Sparta like.









Ukrainian army one of those with largest number of female soldiers - Zelensky


The Ukrainian army remains one of those with the largest number of women serving in its ranks. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Russian telegram channels say that:
Izyum has been taken by Ukraine
Russian forces left Lyman

And most recent and hardest to believe: Russians left Svatove
Svatove is about 30 Km east of Kupyansk on the other side of Oskyl river

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## Mike Williams (Sep 10, 2022)

Powerful stuff. Brilliant counter offensive. Well done lads.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How goes the air war?
> 
> Any more word on how the Ukrainian Air Force is doing in the east and south?
> 
> ...



That is something puzzled me from the very beginning.
I expected Russia to wipe-out Ukrainian AF from the very start.
I already said Russians where incompetents because UAF was still flying after the first weekend, but I expected it to be gone after a few weeks (a few months asuming maximum level of incompetence).
Never I would have imagined that UAF will still be operational after 8 months of war and that RUAF would be mostly missing from Ukrainian airspace.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian telegram channels say that:
> Izyum has been taken by Ukraine
> Russian forces left Lyman
> 
> ...

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

It can only be a matter of months before Georgia launches attacks to retake its separatist regions.









US Announces New Military Aid Worth More Than $2 Billion for Ukraine & Other European Countries, Including Georgia


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unscheduled visit to Kyiv on Thursday as the Biden administration announced major




georgiatoday.ge

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

re *Ukrainian Air Force*

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

Looks like Putin’s censors and propagandists have lost the plot.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> For me it's obvious that is someone sense of humor. That is how i get it at least.


I'm not sure. Perhaps Der Eagle might know but I think there's a restaurant in Krasnodar that makes fabulous blini.


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## Denniss (Sep 10, 2022)

The rusians are on the run. Good. But the Ukrainis need to be careful pursuing them so they don't run in a trap or overstretch/expose their supply lines.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The rusians are on the run. Good. But the Ukrainis need to be careful pursuing them so they don't run in a trap or overstretch/expose their supply lines.


Agreed.

But easier to say than to do. Apparently this part of the front has collapsed. Russians are leaving faster than Ukrainias can advance. And they advance lightning fast. Most settlements or cities have been reported to be "liberated" with no fighting.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

I saw an interview with a military consultant before the counter offensive. He was discussing limited gains would be possible for Ukraine. He then brought up the possibility of a "catastrophic victory". I think this is what he meant.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 10, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The rusians are on the run. Good. But the Ukrainis need to be careful pursuing them so they don't run in a trap or overstretch/expose their supply lines.


A good advice but I can not see how this could be a trap or how could Ukrainia overstrech or get their supply lines exposed, specially with the absence of the RuAF.

Back in 1943 at least the Luftwaffe saved the day sometimes when entire fronts colapsed.

Today, the only way I could see of estabilizing the front by the russian forces is when the ukrainians reach the border and stop.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

_KYIV, Ukraine — Western defense officials and analysts on Saturday said they believed Ukraine had punched through Russian front lines south of the country's second-largest city, taking thousands of square miles of territory and threatening to cut off Russian supply lines.

[...]

A Washington-based think tank likewise referenced sweeping Ukrainian gains on Saturday, estimating that Kyiv has seized around 2,500 square kilometers (965 square miles) in its northeastern breakthrough.

The Institute for the Study of War said in a report that it appeared that "disorganized Russian forces (were) caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance." They cited social media images of apparent Russian prisoners seized in the advance around Izyum and surrounding towns.

The same report said that Ukrainian forces "may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they sever Russian ground lines of communication" north and south of the town.

[...]

The Ukrainian military was more circumspect about the reported gains, claiming in its regular update Saturday to have taken "more than 1,000 square kilometers" (386 square miles) from pro-Kremlin forces since the launch of its long-awaited counteroffensive this week._









Ukrainian forces break through Russia's front lines in the east and retake key towns


Ukrainian officials claim to have taken Izium, Balakliya and Kupiansk — all of which have been controlled by Russian forces for months.




www.npr.org

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Putin’s censors and propagandists have lost the plot.



The usual suspect pointing to the seriousness of the situación when others diminished it.

Notable the lack of an evaluation of the situation by the authorities. And good luck to the reporters trying to defend it when it comes.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

I hope the Ukrainians have the reserves to follow this up and keep the pressure on the retreating Russians.

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## manta22 (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine is reminding more and more like Israel. When I was there in 2006 I was impressed by the women soldiers everywhere. I will admit I found many to be beautiful, but that’s just my young self, and I most felt impressed that the whole nation, women and men were ready to defend their nation and people. It’s Sparta like.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



When I visited Israel on business quite a while ago, I was surprised to see soldiers on the side of the road wearing fatigues & carrying submachine guns-- hitching a ride. We are always warned about picking up hitch-hikers but for them it was perfectly normal.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Multiple rumors that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have entered Lysychansk city of Luhansk Oblast.
Russians abandoning Vovchansk (north of Kharkiv) and moving headquarters to Belgorod (Russia) as a gesture of goodwill.
Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian military is withdrawing from Izyum-Balakliya to reinforce Donetsk

Looks like Russians are collapsing faster than people can tweet about.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

Notice the "extremely unconfirmed", but anyway ...

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## Dimlee (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Tanks neither



Autos neither. This one has been stolen from the civilian owners, most probably. Stealing = bad Karma.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 10, 2022)

A really good read on Russia's current internal predicament:









Russia may not survive Putin’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine


The Russian Federation looks set to face growing threats from domestic separatist movements in the coming years as Vladimir Putin's disastrous decision to invade Ukraine serves as a catalyst for imperial collapse.




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## Dimlee (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Notice the "extremely unconfirmed", but anyway ...



The place is symbolic. One of the first battles with Russian regular troops in May 2014. Several months of resistance until the end of January 2015.








Second Battle of Donetsk Airport - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Dimlee (Sep 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's just someone's imagination.
> 
> You can be sure that Ukraine will not step foot on Russian soil - their goal is to expel the Russian invaders from their homeland, nothing more.


Actually, the stepping is done on the regular basis, - by the special forces and GUR (military intelligence). There is no interest in occupying any of RF territory, of course. But there are many legitimate targets just across the border.

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## GTX (Sep 10, 2022)

Ukrainian forces enter key city of Izium in a sign Kyiv's new offensive is working


When Ukrainian forces entered the city of Izium Saturday, it was more than a major military victory. It was a sign the war in Ukraine might be entering a new phase, one in which Russian troops are scrambling to hold onto the territory they captured over the past six months.




amp.cnn.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Looks like Russians are collapsing faster than people can tweet about.


Bacon is for this and the splendid post you make.

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## GTX (Sep 10, 2022)

'Sharp and rapid': Ukraine retakes territory in Kharkiv region as Russian front crumbles


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv's forces have liberated more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region, as fighting continues in the eastern Donbas region and the south.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 10, 2022)

The most amazing Ukrainian left hook


ROBIN HORSFALL Sept 10. Published 35 mins ago. Ukrainian troops have performed the most amazing tactical victory. They forced the Russians to reinforce Kherson and led them to believe that their ma…




ukrainetoday.org

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## Dimlee (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Putin’s censors and propagandists have lost the plot.



After the initial shock, their propaganda machine is trying to downplay Ukrainian successes and to explain the situation with usual cliches: "western generals are in command", "Ukrainians lost thousands of KIA for every Russian platoon", "our leadership outsmarted the enemy", etc.

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## fubar57 (Sep 10, 2022)

"Regrouping" 


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-invasion-day-199-1.6578722

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> The most amazing Ukrainian left hook
> 
> 
> ROBIN HORSFALL Sept 10. Published 35 mins ago. Ukrainian troops have performed the most amazing tactical victory. They forced the Russians to reinforce Kherson and led them to believe that their ma…
> ...


Bottom of that article…..

*veth SEPTEMBER 10, 2022 AT 5:47 PM Unconfirmed; Kremlin blocked by trucks.*

I can’t see any reports of this.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

Nice. A new forward airbase for the UAF from which to support the liberation of Mariupol!



The “DNR” sees the writing on the wall.









“Head” of the so-called “DNR” escaped from Donetsk against the background of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – media


Where exactly Denis Pushilin went is unknown, but most likely he is in Russia. Denis Pushilin / REUTERS Against the backdrop of a successful counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the &#8…




ukrainetoday.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

_KYIV/HRAKOVE, Ukraine, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Moscow abandoned its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, in a sudden collapse of one of the war's principal front lines after surging Ukrainian forces threatened to encircle the area in a shock advance.

The swift fall of Izium in Kharkiv province was Moscow's worst defeat since its troops were forced back from the capital Kyiv in March, and could prove a decisive turning point in the six-month-old war, with thousands of Russian soldiers abandoning ammunition stockpiles and equipment as they fled.


The state-run TASS news agency quoted Russia's defence ministry as saying it had ordered troops to leave the vicinity to reinforce operations elsewhere in neighbouring Donetsk.

[...]

Ukrainian officials stopped short of confirming they had recaptured Izium, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, posted a photo of troops on its outskirts. Earlier, he tweeted an emoji of grapes. The city's name means "raisin".

The Russian withdrawal announcement came hours after Ukrainian troops captured the city of Kupiansk farther north, the sole railway hub supplying Russia's entire frontline across northeastern Ukraine. That left thousands of Russian troops abruptly cut off from supplies across a stretch of front that has seen some of the most intense battles of the war._









Russia gives up key northeast towns as Ukrainian forces advance


The swift fall of Izium in Kharkiv province was Moscow's worst defeat since its troops were forced back from Kyiv in March, and could prove a turning point in the war, with thousands of Russian soldiers abandoning ammunition stockpiles and equipment as they fled.




www.reuters.com





ETA: The loss of ammunition stockpiles (presumably artillery shells?) could perhaps put a dent in the Russian tactics of ploughing up an area with arty and then advancing to take ground. And if small-arms ammo is in there instead, just as good, because a soldier out of ammo is a target and not a threat.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 10, 2022)

If that is really true, and was designed that way from the start, those Ukrainians are really brilliant. They deserve to join NATO and teach us.









Ukraine’s southern offensive ‘was designed to trick Russia’


Exclusive: Russian forces wrong-footed by attack in Kharkiv region after preparing for offensive in the south




www.theguardian.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> If that is really true, and was designed that way from the start, those Ukrainians are really brilliant. They deserve to join NATO and teach us.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Especially as UAF had to place a division sized force (25-30,000 men), with all its tanks, artillery, trucks, ammunition and food right on the border where any Russia drone or recon asset would spot it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Especially as UAF had to place a division sized force (25-30,000 men), with all its tanks, artillery, trucks, ammunition and food right on the border where any Russia drone or recon asset would spot it.



And at the same time kept what should have been an obvious buildup in the north under wraps until it was all over but the shouting. Not only assault forces but reserves and supplies had to be kept hidden from recon.

Looking back over my posts this last month, it's clear that I too fell for it, so I'm not on any high-horse. Brilliant misdirection. I hope the story behind this comes out soon. It may not have been on the scale of _Fortitude_, but taking reports at face-value, this Ukrainian offensive seems to be at least as successful in terms of misdirection.

ETA: The fact that they had sufficient forces to mount a strong decoy should be setting off warning bells in the Kremlin. It implies that they could spare an entire division from what is certainly a crucial offensive -- and that implies that they're stronger than the Kremlin knows.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And at the same time kept what should have been an obvious buildup in the north under wraps until it was all over but the shouting. Not only assault forces but reserves and supplies had to be kept hidden from recon.
> 
> Looking back over my posts this last month, it's clear that I too fell for it, so I'm not on any high-horse. Brilliant misdirection. I hope the story behind this comes out soon. It may not have been on the scale of _Fortitude_, but taking reports at face-value, this Ukrainian offensive seems to be at least as successful in terms of misdirection.
> 
> ETA: The fact that they had sufficient forces to mount a strong decoy should be setting off warning bells in the Kremlin. It implies that they could spare an entire division from what is certainly a crucial offensive -- and that implies that they're stronger than the Kremlin knows.


GrauGeist and I saw it coming.

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## Glider (Sep 10, 2022)

Clearly the Ukraine offensive has taken Russia by surprise.


Admiral Beez said:


> Especially as UAF had to place a division sized force (25-30,000 men), with all its tanks, artillery, trucks, ammunition and food right on the border where any Russia drone or recon asset would spot it.


This is what surprises me the most. Russia has (in theory) one huge advantage and that is a large, comprehensive satellite system. In theory they should have been able to spot any build-up of this size. How on earth did they miss it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> GrauGeist and I saw it coming.



Screw you and your "I told you so"!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

A few weeks back I read some factoid about Russian satellites. The number listed seemed low to me. However, the Earth boundl satellites of Russia seems to be dwindling.


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## Glider (Sep 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> A few weeks back I read some factoid about Russian satellites. The number listed seemed low to me. However, the Earth boundl satellites of Russia seems to be dwindling.


That would certainly explain it, many thanks


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 10, 2022)

Plus they violated Google's terms of service, so couldn't use google maps any more.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> This is what surprises me the most. Russia has (in theory) one huge advantage and that is a large, comprehensive satellite system. In theory they should have been able to spot any build-up of this size. How on earth did they miss it.



I haven't read any numbers on the Ukrainian forces, but I'd think they're pretty large, to force such a hasty departure. Never mind the satellites failing to detect it, it seems that Russia can't even execute the original mission of air forces: recon by planes

I asked my son last night the over/under on how many Russian generals will be fired over this fiasco, and will we see corporals leading companies and majors leading divisions? I'm sure heads will roll in Moscow.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Plus they violated Google's terms of service, so couldn't use google maps any more.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Screw you and your "I told you so"!
> View attachment 686348


I'm kicking myself for dithering over what I actually wrote or "AF is low on water". GrauGeist beat me to the punch with "Operation Fortitude". I didn't want to spill the beans.

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## Glider (Sep 10, 2022)

Even if the front lines were to stop now, which clearly isn't going to happen, the strategic situation for Russia would be dire. It looks as if the Ukraine now control the main roads and more importantly rail lines to the majority of the Russian forces in the East.
General Winter is coming, and I wouldn't fancy being a Russian soldier in the east with very limited, if any access to supplies. Especially over the winter period where the Ukraine have the freedom to do whatever they want.
Whatever logistical routes remain will be limited and under severe pressure. If there is one topic the Ukraine forces have become masters of, its knowing and finding the logistical weak spots, and then destroying them.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm kicking myself for dithering over what I actually wrote or "AF is low on water". GrauGeist beat me to the punch with "Operation Fortitude". I didn't want to spill the beans.


I've also noticed Ukraine has been VERY quiet in the area of maritime operations recently.

As this offensive progresses, I would not rule out something being commenced while Russia is distracted.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm kicking myself for dithering over what I actually wrote or "AF is low on water". GrauGeist beat me to the punch with "Operation Fortitude". I didn't want to spill the beans.



This underlines the Ukrainians reading the Russian psychology of warfare on a comparable level to that of either of those stratagems. Being inside you enemy's head does indeed matter.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> Even if the front lines were to stop now, which clearly isn't going to happen, the strategic situation for Russia would be dire. It looks as if the Ukraine now control the main roads and more importantly rail lines to the majority of the Russian forces in the East.
> General Winter is coming, and I wouldn't fancy being a Russian soldier in the east with very limited, if any access to supplies. Especially over the winter period where the Ukraine have the freedom to do whatever they want.
> Whatever logistical routes remain will be limited and under severe pressure. If there is one topic the Ukraine forces have become masters of, its knowing and finding the logistical weak spots, and then destroying them.



And with MLRS/MARS, those supply lines will be threatened by Ukrainians even if the Russians resort to truck convoys.


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## fubar57 (Sep 10, 2022)

Speaking of supply lines threatened.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-nato-weapons-zelenskyy-russia-1.6578148

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I've also noticed Ukraine has been VERY quiet in the area of maritime operations recently.
> 
> As this offensive progresses, I would not rule out something being commenced while Russia is distracted.


🤫

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## manta22 (Sep 10, 2022)

Wasn't it something like "AF reports that their seawater condenser has broken down?"

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Wasn't it something like "AF reports that their seawater condenser has broken down?"


Yes. I was implying playing mind games with the enemy. A bit of maskirovka. I didn't want to be obvious. What I did write was in response to a post by The Admiral. Ukraine was telegraphing its moves for the upcoming Kherson offensive. I wrote "Yes, Ukraine is telegraphing its moves. Russia should watch very closely", or thereabouts.

The "telegraphing" part made me think of Midway.

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## Denniss (Sep 10, 2022)

Now blow up a section of the Kerch bridge and they'll have to swim back to mother Russia

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

Speaking of maskirovka, I totally forgot about that mischievous imp Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austen, and the part he played. "Ukraine will have to reduce its goals to just take back the northern bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City." I'm paraphrasing.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Now blow up a section of the Kerch bridge and they'll have to swim back to mother Russia


GrauGeist might have some ideas.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

I can only imagine the scrambling Russian troops on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. They must feel mighty far out on the limb.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

I hope they stop to take pictures of the bridge.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 10, 2022)

The Russians are beefing up defenses around the Kerch bridge.

To be honest, I'd leave it standing for now. Let the Russians and civilians use it to escape. Then, when the time comes to reclaim Crimea, there are less defenders to contend with and a reduced chance of civilians caught in the crossfire. 

The bridge would be easy to block if, for some reason, Russia were to try and send reinforcements during the Ukrainians retaking Crimea, and it's a perfect killing zone.

In the meantime, keep the Red Army guessing!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Russians are beefing up defenses around the Kerch bridge.
> 
> To be honest, I'd leave it standing for now. Let the Russians and civilians use it to escape. Then, when the time comes to reclaim Crimea, there are less defenders to contend with and a reduced chance of civilians caught in the crossfire.
> 
> ...



Right, do they reinforce or evacuate Crimea? I bet they'll reinforce it simply to maintain the coastal forces ... but the bridge then becomes a sword of Damocles behind them.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 10, 2022)

The civilians that are escaping Crimea may have been "imported" from Russia. It's best they leave of their own volition.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 10, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Speaking of supply lines threatened.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-nato-weapons-zelenskyy-russia-1.6578148


Just like Covid demonstrated that our supplies of PPE and respirators was insufficient for the real world pandemic they were planned for; the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War shows that Canada, Germany and other’s supplies of weapons are insufficient for the war against the Russia they were supposed to fight. Ukraine should be thanked for showing us that we need a lot more kit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just like Covid demonstrated that our supplies of PPE and respirators was insufficient for the real world pandemic they were planned for; the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War shows that Canada, Germany and other’s supplies of weapons are insufficient for the war against the Russia they were supposed to fight. Ukraine should be thanked for showing us that we need a lot more kit.



Or perhaps Putin should be thanked for playing his hand too soon?

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## fubar57 (Sep 11, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, do they reinforce or evacuate Crimea? I bet they'll reinforce it simply to maintain the coastal forces ... but the bridge then becomes a sword of Damocles behind them.


Mmmm. HIMARS wants a missile corvette!

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## Dimlee (Sep 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I've also noticed Ukraine has been VERY quiet in the area of maritime operations recently.
> 
> As this offensive progresses, I would not rule out something being commenced while Russia is distracted.


Probably, because Russian cruise missiles "platforms" avoid to sail far away from the SAM umbrella of Sebastopol. 
I hope this umbrella will be penetrated eventually.

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## Dimlee (Sep 11, 2022)

"What we are fighting for". Our boys and girls at the front line know the answer.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 11, 2022)

My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine


Rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect.




carnegieendowment.org

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## Mike Williams (Sep 11, 2022)



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## tomo pauk (Sep 11, 2022)

Not being able to follow all of the war operations for the last 2 months (gotta make a livin'...), I'm really pleasantly suprised by the recent events. Go Ukraine!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 11, 2022)

Looks like Russia doesn’t want Russian speakers and collaborators to leave Ukraine. I suppose if they did leave, much of the reason for the Special Operation is moot.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 11, 2022)

Wow, talk about irony.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

That only confirms that 1) Putin didn't give a shit about those Russian sympathizers, and 2) that Russian credibility isn't worth two turds rubbed together.

It makes me wonder what Ukraine will do to these folks once the war is over.

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## Glider (Sep 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And with MLRS/MARS, those supply lines will be threatened by Ukrainians even if the Russians resort to truck convoys.


Totally agree

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "What we are fighting for". Our boys and girls at the front line know the answer.



A very moving video.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 11, 2022)

The #UkrainianCounteroffensive in #Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia's northern #Donbas axis. #Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around #Izyum. 🧵1/





Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and liberated over 3,000 sq. km. of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April. 2/ 

Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of #Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. Its liberation would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March. 3/

The Russian MoD did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes around Kharkiv Oblast as the primary factor for the Russian retreat and claimed that Russian military command has been carrying out a controlled withdrawal from the Balakliya-Izyum area. 4/ 

The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Russian forces undertook a number of demonstrative actions and used artillery and aviation to ensure the safety of withdrawing Russian forces. These Russian statements have no relation to the situation on the ground. 5/

The Russian MoD's inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space. 6/

Kremlin-sponsored propagandists offered a variety of confusing explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication in Kupyansk. 7/

The Kremlin's propagandists were unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports. Guest experts also were unable to reaffirm the hosts' narratives that Ukrainian successes are not significant. 8/

Such programming may reveal the true progress of the Russian "special military operation" to the general Russian public that relies on state media and the Russian MoD for updates. 9/

The withdrawal announcement further alienated the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities who condemned the Russian MoD for remaining quiet, choosing self-isolation, and distorting situational awareness in Russia. 10/

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## Glider (Sep 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just like Covid demonstrated that our supplies of PPE and respirators was insufficient for the real world pandemic they were planned for; the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War shows that Canada, Germany and other’s supplies of weapons are insufficient for the war against the Russia they were supposed to fight. Ukraine should be thanked for showing us that we need a lot more kit.


Again you are absolutely right. Money talks. If some of the key NATO countries (including the UK) were to do what Poland has done. Smell the coffee, open the cheque books and place the orders that are needed. The I will bet a penny to the pound the production lines will start churning out what is needed.

That said, I firmly believe that there is a lot more useful equipment lying around is stores that would be of immediate use in the Ukraine. There must be significant numbers of M113's, Leopard II, Early M1 Abrams tanks, the infamous Leopard 1, AH1 Cobra and Huey choppers is people's warehouses. In the UK the Tranche 1 Typhoons are not being used for anything. Are they as good as a later version, no clearly, but would the Ukraine want some, certainly. On land the Carl Gustav anti tank missile may well be ineffective against a modern T72 with reactive armour, but it would destroy any other light armoured vehicle. 

It isn't just that we don't have it in stock. It may well be true to say that there is a limit to the first line equipment that is available, but I am confident that there is a lot of useful second line equipment available that leaders lack the courage to release.

On a different note, the Donbas is clearly under considerable risk of attack. There are a lot of stories about their troops being ill equipped and given obsolete equipment such as T62's, how are they likely to hold out for?


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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Wow, talk about irony.


Talk about schadenfreude.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 11, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

_KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces on Sunday pushed its counteroffensive in the country's east, exploiting quick gains they made in a week of fighting that has sharply changed the course of the conflict.

Ukraine's quick action to reclaim Russia-occupied areas in the northeastern Kharkiv region forced Moscow to withdraw its troops to prevent them from being surrounded and leave behind significant numbers of weapons and munitions in a hasty retreat as the war marked 200 days on Sunday.

[...]

The Russians' pullback marked the biggest battlefield success for Ukrainian forces since they thwarted a Russian attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv, at the start of the nearly seven-month war. Ukraine's attack in the Kharkiv region came as a surprise for Moscow, which had relocated many of its troops from the area to the south in expectation of the main Ukrainian counteroffensive there.

[...]

Just as the Russian forces were hastily pulling back from Izyum under Ukrainian fire, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening of a huge observation wheel at a Moscow park, a new transport link and a sports arena.

[...]

Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov criticized the festivities in Moscow as a grave political mistake.

“The fireworks in Moscow on a tragic day of Russia’s military defeat will have extremely serious political consequences,” Markov wrote on his messaging app channel. “Authorities mustn’t celebrate when people are mourning.”

[...]

In a sign of potential rift in the Russian leadership, Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya, said that the retreat from the Kharkiv region resulted from the Russian military leadership’s blunders.

“They have made mistakes and I think they will draw the necessary conclusions,” Kadyrov said. “If they don’t make changes in the strategy of conducting the special military operation in the next day or two, I will be forced to contact the leadership of the Defense Ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground._









Russia hits power stations after Ukraine counteroffensive


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia attacked power stations and other infrastructure Sunday, causing widespread outages across Ukraine as Kyiv’s forces pressed a swift counteroffensive that has driven Moscow's troops from swaths of territory it had occupied in the northeast.




apnews.com





Victory has a thousand fathers; defeat is an orphan.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 11, 2022)

Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’


GettyMore and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try...




www.yahoo.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces on Sunday pushed its counteroffensive in the country's east, exploiting quick gains they made in a week of fighting that has sharply changed the course of the conflict.


Watching the long drawn out "Southeast Front Advertising Campaign", I kinda wondered if those pesky Ukrainians didn’t have something up their left sleeve. But if it was actually a maskirovka, it was just too obvious to work in the real world. But then again, the Russians just aren't the Israelis, or anything like them.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Don't forget the U.S. Dept. of Defense restraining the ZSU from trying to take Kherson Oblast. The ZSU is no position to advance over a wide front and should limit itself to the north bank of the Dnipro.


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## GTX (Sep 11, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 11, 2022)

'Russia is retreating': Moscow's grip on north-east Ukraine collapses after Kyiv severs supply line


Ukrainian forces push up to 50 kilometres past Russian lines and recaptured dozens of towns in a dramatic counteroffensive.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Sep 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like Russia doesn’t want Russian speakers and collaborators to leave Ukraine. I suppose if they did leave, much of the reason for the Special Operation is moot.



Arkady Babchenko coined this phrase years ago after the 2nd Chechen War:
"Motherland will fool you, son. Always".

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## Glider (Sep 11, 2022)

Putin is in serious trouble with his support let alone on the battlefield.

The hardened right wing is urging him to mobilise and even use chemical and nuclear weapons
The anti war wing are starting to complain, and two districts have asked for him to stand aside
The Chechnya leader that he appointed and relies on for military support has said the following
_"If today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made, I will be forced to speak with the leadership of the defence ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground to them. It's a very interesting situation. It's astounding, I would say,"_

And yesterday Putin spent the day opening a large Ferris Wheel in Moscow, that broke down that night.

It's a bit like Hitler reviewing his plans for a new Berlin as the Russian tanks rolled through the streets

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 11, 2022)

You get a tank! You get a tank! Everyone gets a tank!!!

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## Glider (Sep 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You get a tank! You get a tank! Everyone gets a tank!!!



They look brand new, hardly even dirty


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## GTX (Sep 11, 2022)

Ukrainian Soldiers seize modern weapons from Russians


Ukrainian Forces have seized hundreds of combat vehicles, artillery and ammunition from the Russian army. Hundreds of abandoned military vehicles and bodies mark the path of Russian retreat in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region. Russia’s front-line troops have fled their positions as...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Sep 11, 2022)

Let's just take a moment to remember some of Putin's biggest supporters:











Fox News Host Tucker Carlson Mocked as Ukrainians Force Russia to Retreat


Carlson has spoken favorably of Russia's operations in Ukraine and accused Democrats of opposing the invasion out of revenge against Vladimir Putin.




www.newsweek.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukrainian Soldiers seize modern weapons from Russians
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Forces have seized hundreds of combat vehicles, artillery and ammunition from the Russian army. Hundreds of abandoned military vehicles and bodies mark the path of Russian retreat in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region. Russia’s front-line troops have fled their positions as...
> ...



It'll be interesting to see how they fit into the "defense" of the Donbas without weapons.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 11, 2022)

Interesting. The Russians that participate each get a t-shirt while the Ukrainians that participate each get a tank.

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## Dimlee (Sep 11, 2022)

I think this is a sober assessment. 
'Swap of territory-for-troops' and "plan G". I hope that Ukraine's General Staff understands the risks.


In the meantime, this joke is popular today: 
"Tom Cooper's recommendation to Ukrainian Army: pay attention to the language spoken by the locals!
Once you hear Chinese, it's time to stop your advance".

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 11, 2022)



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## Greg Boeser (Sep 11, 2022)




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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

I'm getting the feeling Ukraine doesn't really need Leopard IIs right now.


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## J_P_C (Sep 11, 2022)



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## Mike Williams (Sep 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> View attachment 686482


If that is anywhere near accurate, France is pathetic


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## Glider (Sep 11, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> If that is anywhere near accurate, France is pathetic


It fits though. What exactly has France given to Ukraine? A handful of SPG's and a number of phone calls to Putin, anything else anybody?


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> It fits though. What exactly has France given to Ukraine? A handful of SPG's and a number of phone calls to Putin, anything else anybody?


When has anyone relied on France to shoulder their share without fail?


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 11, 2022)

1781?
I just googled this and it offered a cautionary tale. France spent so much supporting the American Colonies that it bankrupted them, leading to the French Revolution.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

General Washington at Yorktown following the Battle of the Virginia Capes comes to mind.

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## Juha3 (Sep 11, 2022)

The French supplied arms to the UA even before the Russian attack as did the UK and the USA. And after the attack they kept supplying arms to the UA but have kept a low profile on that. Also Finns have not advertised what we had sent, we have 1300 km of good reasons for that.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm getting the feeling Ukraine doesn't really need Leopard IIs right now.



No, but they damned sure will feel the need for 'em tomorrow ... or next year ... or ten or twenty years from now. I reckon this invasion has toxified the relationship between the two nations for generations.

They'll get a few years to work up on the Leopard while they field the captured bounty and donated/purchased spares and ammo.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Well yeah, but not right now. How many freaking tanks does the ZSU have now? I'm not even counting that farmer in Brovary. 
I'd prefer they get the M-1. 'Cause, like, they're cool.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Well yeah, but not right now. How many freaking tanks does the ZSU have now? I'm not even counting that farmer in Brovary.
> I'd prefer they get the M-1. 'Cause, like, they're cool.



More MLRS/HIMARs, more ammo, and add A-10s to the F-16 training we're giving them. OG Abrams now in storage would be cool too. Did I mention Warthogs?

Talking with my son about it last night, I mentioned that one of the ironies that will probably arise from this war is the fact that many places in Ukraine will have buildings using, in part, resmelted steel from all the hardware the Russians have lost.

And I think that every Ukrainian tractor-owner should get his own tank, just 'cause. That's not counting the ones they recover for tax exemptions.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Send 'em a dozen Warthogs, a U-haul full of parts and let's see what they do with it. Just sayin'.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 11, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Send 'em a dozen Warthogs, a U-haul full of parts and let's see what they do with it. Just sayin'.



Don't forget the Mavericks.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 11, 2022)

Some interesting stats in the Forbes article. Not sure of their veracity:









The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate


The Russian army is losing at least a battalion’s worth of vehicles and men a day as twin Ukrainian counteroffensives roll back Russian territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. That’s hundreds of casualties and scores of vehicle write-offs every day.




www.forbes.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Don't forget the Mavericks.


Oh man, I did. Good point.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No, but they damned sure will feel the need for 'em tomorrow ... or next year ... or ten or twenty years from now. I reckon this invasion has toxified the relationship between the two nations for generations.
> 
> They'll get a few years to work up on the Leopard while they field the captured bounty and donated/purchased spares and ammo.



Maybe they should go ahead and place an order for the new German Panther when they go into production.

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## J_P_C (Sep 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Maybe they should go ahead and place an order for the new German Panther when they go into production.


Ukraine has largest tank factory in the world and very experienced engineers - all they need is time and money....

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## WARSPITER (Sep 12, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Ukraine has largest tank factory in the world and very experienced engineers - all they need is time and money....


Ukraine now also has the world's largest second hand tank yard. Good prices and no tax due to farmer origin so agricultural products.

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## at6 (Sep 12, 2022)

World News tonight had footage of Orc tanks and supplies being abandoned by their crews in a panic to leave. At this rate Ukraine won't have enough people to use it all.

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)

"Russian puppet Pushilin is nowhere to be found, Mariupol official says"

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

Russian forces "outnumbered 8 to 1" by the Ukrainian offensive. Yeah...right! Just more excuses for an abysmal performance by the Russian military. 









Ukraine war: Russians 'outnumbered 8-1' in counter-attack


Ukraine's army makes significant territorial gains, while Russia hits back with missiles.



www.bbc.com





The updated map is interesting, showing all Russian forces evicted from Ukraine in the area north of Kharkiv. Although II don't like these maps that the BBC shows (the keys are misleading and they contain an odd mix of current and old information), they are reportedly sourced from the UK MOD. Regardless, that big splotch of purple in the north is really great news.






Just hoping and praying that Ukraine can hold onto these gains and continue to capitalize on them. They have a lot of territory still to re-take, and it will take a sizeable force to prevent Russian re-attacks.

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## Glider (Sep 12, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> "Russian puppet Pushilin is nowhere to be found, Mariupol official says"


I wonder if it's something he ate?

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## Denniss (Sep 12, 2022)

he wanted to be faster than the russian army in running away

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## WARSPITER (Sep 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> I wonder if it's something he ate?


It's ok, if he starts feeling better they'll give him a cup of nice tea to wash it down.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 12, 2022)

I bet the Quislings are really nervous now, knowing that they will be turned away at the Russian border.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I bet the Quislings are really nervous now, knowing that they will be turned away at the Russian border.



The term "between a rock and a hard place" came to my mind, accompanied by a wickedly gleeful chuckle.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

A bit more analysis in this article but nothing really new. An interesting pic of a few drowned BMPs:









Ukraine war: A successful surprise attack - but danger still looms


The BBC's defence correspondent looks at what's behind Ukraine's potential breakthrough in the east.



www.bbc.com





The map comparison shows just how much ground has been gained by Ukrainian forces in the past 5 days.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> wickedly gleeful chuckle


I chuckle gleefully wickedly with you on this if, you dont mind the company.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 12, 2022)

Falls under the rubric of "be careful what you ask for", to me. They had to know that trusting Putin is a risky idea.


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## drgondog (Sep 12, 2022)

Meanwhile:






'No Choice But Intervention': Belgium PM Fears "Severe Risk Of Social Unrest" | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com





and








EU Backs Off Russian Energy Price Cap - News From Antiwar.com


The European Union is backing off its sharply divisive plan to implement a price cap on Russian gas, according to Reuters. There were major concerns leading up to an emergency meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels on Friday, but the overriding fear was Moscow would respond by cutting all...




news.antiwar.com





and





German Diplomat Who Mocked Trump At UN Suddenly Silent As President's 'Russian Energy' Warning Comes True | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com





And





From Fist-Bump To Fisted: Oil Surges After OPEC+ Agrees On 100Kb/d Production Cut | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com





Not to mention Kharkov energy grid shut down 100% except for candles and coal fires.

Folks, do not bring sunshine and unicorns to global hunger, disease and looming Depression crisis. Hoard your ARs and ammo and MREs and water supply. Be prepared and hope that this will all blow over rather than blow down. In Texas, the oft forgotten phrase "Save yer Confederate mone boys, the South will rise again", is taking on new meaning.

Oops not talking about rest of West - only Switzerland has ARs at home (or FNs, whatever).

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## SaparotRob (Sep 12, 2022)

Mariupol is about 132 miles / 212 km from Kerch. Is that within HIMARS range?


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## GrauGeist (Sep 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Mariupol is about 132 miles / 212 km from Kerch. Is that within HIMARS range?


About 300 miles...

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## drgondog (Sep 12, 2022)

As an added tidbit - now that Kharkov grid shutdown has occurred, is this a warning or just a prelude for full scale declaration of War by Vlad? How confortable are Ukrainian troopers fighting their ass off worrying about families in Ukraine cities with no power?

IMO - this is a balanced objective article:





A New Phase In The Ukraine War | ZeroHedge


ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




www.zerohedge.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 12, 2022)

I just saw a vid stating that Belgorod is without power.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I chuckle gleefully wickedly with you on this if, you dont mind the company.



By all means, the more the merrier. Glad to share some evil chuckles....I'll even let you have the cat (white-haired or otherwise):

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## manta22 (Sep 12, 2022)

As things get desperate for Putin I would not be surprised to see him resort to a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 12, 2022)

About sending stuff over there; how about some coal mining do da's . Ukr coal is a bit under staffed at the moment.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Meanwhile:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The language in the antiwar.com article is interesting...."NATO's proxy war in Ukraine" and "anti-Russian sanctions blitz." Funny how sites like that seem only to be anti-war if it's the West doing ANYTHING. Western nations wouldn't be providing the arms into Ukraine if Russia hadn't invaded in the first place.

It's also amazing how inflation "plagues" the US and the West but somehow doesn't affect Russia ("The campaign has backfired with the ruble rallying against the dollar and mounting inflation plaguing the United States and Europe").

Rather like the EurAsian Times news site, antiwar.com seems to be a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda rather than truly believing in it's website name.

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## fubar57 (Sep 12, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I chuckle gleefully wickedly with you on this if, you dont mind the company.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 12, 2022)

A wonderful thought...









What a Ukrainian Victory Means


Francis Fukuyama: "If the Ukrainians don’t simply hold out against Russia but actually defeat Russia’s massive army and force it to retreat, the positive reverberations will be felt across the globe. Populist nationalists around the world, from Viktor Orbán to Matteo Salvini to Marine Le Pen to




politicalwire.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 12, 2022)

It seems that everyone has forgotten that Herr Putin illegally seized territory in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine prior to this recent "special operation", who's goal was to clean the country of Nazis, protect Russian speaking citizens amd reclaim "territory that previously belonged to Russia".
NATO's "proxy war" didn't start until Zelensky asked for help, not a safe place to hide, which was NATO's initial offering.

It appears that many websites either haven't been following events from the start or choose to see only what they want to see (and/or receive compensation for their version - hopefully not in rubles).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 12, 2022)

For the last and *FINAL* time…

Let’s tone down the political rhetoric. We have eased the “no politics” rule, but it is not removed all together. This is getting borderline to what will get this thread shutdown. We have been really good so far, and I am proud of everyone for that. Let’s not ruin a good thing.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 12, 2022)

War is always political. They are started by politicians with political goals. The decision to resist or capitulate is a political one. Non-combatant nations make political decisions about support or non-support of the combatants. And the effects of war have political ramifications far beyond the battlefield.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 12, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> War is always political. They are started by politicians with political goals. The decision to resist or capitulate is a political one. Non-combatant nations make political decisions about support or non-support of the combatants. And the effects of war have political ramifications far beyond the battlefield.



Yes it is, but we don’t want the finger pointing rhetoric that is dividing people and causing the hate and problems.

There are other places for that. I’m sure you would like Truth Social for example (just assuming).

So, lets not ruin this. Not hard to understand.

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Meanwhile:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Just to highlight where this is all coming from:






Zero Hedge - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





A conspiracy theory pushing, radical right-wing extremist and pro-Russian group banned in multiple places. I don't think there is a place for them here.

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)

Ukrainian troops say they have recaptured more than 20 towns, reached the Russian border


The Ukrainian armed forces says its troops have liberated more than 20 settlements in the past day, while Britain's defence ministry says the area recaptured is at least twice the size of Greater London.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)

Widespread blackouts as Ukraine accuses Russia of attacking power grid in revenge for offensive


Ukraine accuses Russian forces of attacking civilian infrastructure in response to a rapid weekend offensive by Ukrainian troops that drove Russia to abandon its main bastion in the Kharkiv region.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 12, 2022)

What would have caused this crash? Air disturbance from the surviving aircraft?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 12, 2022)



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## Glider (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would have caused this crash? Air disturbance from the surviving aircraft?



Certainly could have flown into the slipstream


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## GrauGeist (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would have caused this crash? Air disturbance from the surviving aircraft?



Perhaps accurate ground fire?

They were certainly flying low and slow enough for someone to take several shots at the cockpit.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would have caused this crash? Air disturbance from the surviving aircraft?



Engine failure? Before the crash seems that no smoke is coming from them.


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## Denniss (Sep 12, 2022)

didn't they touch with their wings in-air?


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## Glider (Sep 12, 2022)

They had just taken off so I would guess that groundfire is unlikely and both aircraft seem to have Smokey engines.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m sure you would like Truth Social for example (just assuming)


Don't assume.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> They had just taken off so I would guess that groundfire is unlikely and both aircraft seem to have Smokey engines.


Ok, I can't see much on this %&#$ phone...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> They had just taken off so I would guess that groundfire is unlikely and both aircraft seem to have Smokey engines.


To me it looks like no smoke in this frame, but could be my phone, the phone recording the T/O.

Guess we will never know:


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would have caused this crash? *Air disturbance* from the surviving aircraft?



It's called "wake turbulence." In a two ship take off of the same aircraft, very doubtful and it doesn't look like he was even in a position to pick up any wake turbulence. I watched this several times and it seems the aircraft that crashed pitched up momentarily and then lowered his nose before turning crosswind. We can speculate all day but there seems to be no obvious reason for this from what I've seen.

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## drgondog (Sep 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The language in the antiwar.com article is interesting...."NATO's proxy war in Ukraine" and "anti-Russian sanctions blitz." Funny how sites like that seem only to be anti-war if it's the West doing ANYTHING. Western nations wouldn't be providing the arms into Ukraine if Russia hadn't invaded in the first place.
> 
> It's also amazing how inflation "plagues" the US and the West but somehow doesn't affect Russia ("The campaign has backfired with the ruble rallying against the dollar and mounting inflation plaguing the United States and Europe").
> 
> Rather like the EurAsian Times news site, antiwar.com seems to be a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda rather than truly believing in it's website name.


I read them all - or most. Guadian, Epoch Times, NYT, RT, AntiWar, Washingon Examiner, Gateway Pundit, etc,etc.

What I find disturbing is that a.) they can't ALL be right, b.) sunshine and unicorns for 'our side' turns into spin to explain what goes wrong. 

Equally disturbing is that media centers are cheerleading or supporting one side based on facts, opinions based on facts, opinions with no facts and just raw unalduterated Pravda type BS. Most media outlets in our country have abandoned great investigative journalism.

To Be Clear - I do not in any way support Putin. That said, my cherry regading pristine and pure Ukraine was popped a very long time ago. 

I do have some insight to the weapons we (and NATO) ar supplying Ukraine. I also understand that I and all other taxpayers are paying for Raytheon, Boeing, etc. with no real debate while we drain our own 'go to war' inventory as if there are no threats on the horizon, and we have infnite time and resources to spool up.

Chris - I will stand down in respect of 'no politics' - but what we are seeing unfold is ALL politics - defined as the acquisition and control of power. 

The 'explosion' in my opinion is coming - whether nuclear war, or at least use thereof for limited purposes - or hunger and rage by the People over the over-reach of their respective governments.


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## fubar57 (Sep 12, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Engine failure? Before the crash seems that no smoke is coming from them.


There seems to be an extra puff of exhaust smoke at about the 12-14 second mark

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 12, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Don't assume.



I honestly try not to, but its very easy to do (about everyone, me included) based on typical posts made here. Please don’t take it personal.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

Interesting analysis:









Ukraine war: What will Russia's losses mean for Putin?


Questions are being asked as even state media reported the "tough" week, says the BBC's Russia editor.



www.bbc.com





The threat by Putin's Chechnyan puppet is interesting. I also liked the closing reference to Putin opening a huge ferris wheel in Moscow. What this article fails to mention is that the event wasn't viewed favourably across Russia, with comments like (and I paraphrase) "We shouldn't be celebrating and letting off fireworks when our people are dying." 

It's also worth noting that the ferris wheel broke down shortly after it started operations. Perhaps symbolic of Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)

drgondog said:


> IMO - this is a balanced objective article:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That is far from being a balanced objective article.

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## GTX (Sep 12, 2022)

Putin is facing a strategic calamity in Ukraine with significant implications for the war


A series of Ukrainian battlefield achievements in the past few days boosts military confidence, gives heart to the Ukrainian people and shows just how flawed the Russians' strategy in this war has been, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Sep 12, 2022)

Juha3 said:


> The French supplied arms to the UA even before the Russian attack as did the UK and the USA. And after the attack they kept supplying arms to the UA but have kept a low profile on that. Also Finns have not advertised what we had sent, we have 1300 km of good reasons for that.


You guys have inspired us with your valiant fight in the XX century, that contribution was invaluable.
Keep strengthening your part of the perimeter, the beast needs to be contained from all sides.
And I trust that $92 mln is spent for some good staff.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 12, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> There seems to be an extra puff of exhaust smoke at about the 12-14 second mark
> 
> View attachment 686622​


Bird strike?


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 12, 2022)

Anyone understanding Russian can confirm?

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Bird strike?


Possibly, although this aircraft is powered by 2 engines, it should have been able to stay airborne

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## Dimlee (Sep 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The language in the antiwar.com article is interesting...."NATO's proxy war in Ukraine" and "anti-Russian sanctions blitz." Funny how sites like that seem only to be anti-war if it's the West doing ANYTHING. Western nations wouldn't be providing the arms into Ukraine if Russia hadn't invaded in the first place.
> 
> It's also amazing how inflation "plagues" the US and the West but somehow doesn't affect Russia ("The campaign has backfired with the ruble rallying against the dollar and mounting inflation plaguing the United States and Europe").
> 
> Rather like the EurAsian Times news site, antiwar.com seems to be a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda rather than truly believing in it's website name.


_"Those who 'abjure' violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf." _(George Orwell, Notes on Nationalism).

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## buffnut453 (Sep 12, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Possibly, although this aircraft is powered by 2 engines, it should have been able to stay airborne



Agreed, unless the pilot got distracted by the engine failure and allowed his speed to bleed off. That portion of the flight envelope can be tricky in any aircraft.

A review of the video has been posted on another thread, with a pundit claiming mid-air collision. I don't buy that because the lead aircraft was too far out in front for the two aircraft to have collided. I also don't think it was wake turbulence because the aircraft that crashed remained well to starboard of the lead until after it had already rolled and was heading earthwards. 

The pundit video does show what appears to be a portion of the port wing of the rear aircraft bent downwards. I'm wondering if this was simply a structural failure? I know it would be incredibly rare, particularly in a supposedly rugged airframe like the Su-25. However, it would account for the roll to port, and such a failure could occur without any other visible indicators. The downside to this theory is the lack of wing debris after the failure.

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## Mike Williams (Sep 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What would have caused this crash? Air disturbance from the surviving aircraft?



This guys seems to think "one of them clips the wing of the other".



I can't really say.


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 12, 2022)



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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agreed, unless the pilot got distracted by the engine failure and allowed his speed to bleed off. That portion of the flight envelope can be tricky in any aircraft.


Agree, but at the same time I can't understand the continued slow turn to the crosswind.


buffnut453 said:


> A review of the video has been posted on another thread, with a pundit claiming mid-air collision. I don't buy that because the lead aircraft was too far out in front for the two aircraft to have collided. I also don't think it was wake turbulence because the aircraft that crashed remained well to starboard of the lead until after it had already rolled and was heading earthwards.


Agree - I've actually done a two ship like this in the L29 (my instructor was in the back seat). Although we're talking flying a trainer; lighter, less powerful and with no external stores, the wake turbulence is not noticeable if you're along side the lead aircraft at his 45. 


buffnut453 said:


> The pundit video does show what appears to be a portion of the port wing of the rear aircraft bent downwards. I'm wondering if this was simply a structural failure? I know it would be incredibly rare, particularly in a supposedly rugged airframe like the Su-25. However, it would account for the roll to port, and such a failure could occur without any other visible indicators. The downside to this theory is the lack of wing debris after the failure.


Good assessment!


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> This guys seems to think "one of them clips the wing of the other".
> 
> 
> 
> I can't really say.



Disagree - both aircraft would be at the same speed and climb rate, it did not seem like the aircraft that crashed was overtaking the lead

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## Dimlee (Sep 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Anyone understanding Russian can confirm?



Confirmed. 🤣

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)

РУССкЙЙ_ВОѲННЫЙ_корабль иди___HAX**

Russia_________war_____ship____go____***

🤣

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## drgondog (Sep 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> That is far from being a balanced objective article.


Specifics please -facts and sources to contradict? Point out vested interest in article to deceive or subvert? In other words - why specifically do you claim 'skewed and not to be weighed as objective'?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 12, 2022)

Two questions for our resident tankers.

First: looking at this pic of russian equipment captured I noticed that the tank crew helmet is the same model that I got my hands on (albeit that one with NVG) as a young teenager some 30 years ago when going with my father to former USSR ships in Tenerife to be cambulloneros (BTW, the only ship I remember was named Khersones and was a school ship). Is the western tank crew equipment the same as 30 years ago?







Second: a soft helmet has any advantage over a hard one inside a tank?

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 12, 2022)

Looks like both engines cut out. I didnt see any exhaust at the end before is crashed.


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## wlewisiii (Sep 12, 2022)

I'm thinking that with the growing collapse of the Russian misadventures in Ukraine, could Putler get tempted to break out the nukes? Especially considering that a certain funeral would make a very major target for a decapitation strike...


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## SaparotRob (Sep 12, 2022)

RE: the Su-25 video. 
Scrimping on scheduled service? How old are those things? Have Russian aircraft had scheduled structural component maintenance similar to western standards? I'm guessing no and I would say the same for their civil aviation.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I'm thinking that with the growing collapse of the Russian misadventures in Ukraine, could Putler get tempted to break out the nukes? Especially considering that a certain funeral would make a very major target for a decapitation strike...


Great. Like I don't have enough trouble sleeping already.

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## fubar57 (Sep 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I'm thinking that with the growing collapse of the Russian misadventures in Ukraine, could Putler get tempted to break out the nukes? Especially considering that a certain funeral would make a very major target for a decapitation strike...


He may be stupid but lets hope he's not dumb

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## SaparotRob (Sep 12, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> He may be stupid but lets hope he's not dumb


I'm way more worried about crazy.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 12, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Two questions for our resident tankers.
> 
> First: looking at this pic of russian equipment captured I noticed that the tank crew helmet is the same model that I got my hands on (albeit that one with NVG) as a young teenager some 30 years ago when going with my father to former USSR ships in Tenerife to be cambulloneros (BTW, the only ship I remember was named Khersones and was a school ship). Is the western tank crew equipment the same as 30 years ago?
> 
> ...


Helmet? yes. Rest of the uniform and gear? Not even close.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Looks like both engines cut out. I didnt see any exhaust at the end before is crashed.


That could be an indicator but not a slam dunk depending on how the fuel is being burnt at that moment.


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> RE: the Su-25 video.
> Scrimping on scheduled service? How old are those things? Have Russian aircraft had scheduled structural component maintenance similar to western standards? I'm guessing no and I would say the same for their civil aviation.


I've seen some Soviet maintenance programs on older equipment, seem comparable to western standards in most respects, BUT hard to say what is being done under combat conditions.

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)

The latest intel I have run across says that ~25% of the Russian front line aviation is either on a limited flight time allowance (to preserve airframe life) or down for lack of maintenance and spares.

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)

If Putin is actually insane (as well as everyone else around him) and suicidal then nukes would make sense. Otherwise no.

As soon as Russia uses a nuke (outside of their own country) all bets are off as to what various concerned countries will do. The best Russia could hope for would be if they opened their borders to outside forces and accepted nuclear disarmament. But there would be no good end in sight for those directly responsible, or for those who stood by and let it happen.

Incidentally, Britain has maintained at least 1x Vanguard class boomer at sea 24/365 since they became operational. Each Vanguard carries upto 16x Trident II missiles with upto 8x 100 kt independently targeted warheads per missile. That is enough to ruin the day for every major city in Russia.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The latest intel I have run across says that ~25% of the Russian front line aviation is either on a limited flight time allowance (to preserve airframe life) or down for lack of maintenance and spares.


I've seen similar and the fact that we haven't seen more of the Russian AF proves this point.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 12, 2022)

Oh boy...

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## GrauGeist (Sep 12, 2022)

From the Budapest Memorandum:

4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.

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## ThomasP (Sep 12, 2022)

re "(They) are attempting to negotiate conditions of laying down arms, under the norms of international humanitarian law," said Natalia Humeniuk.
Hemeniuk is a spokesperson for Ukrainian Media. (This is in reference to the troops north of the Dnipro near Kherson.)

Interesting. Perhaps now is the time for one or more well meaning NATO countries to arrange for internment in a neutral country for any Russian troops who surrender. Make an arrangement where the Russians surrender to the Ukrainian troops and then are immediately handed off to the interning country's representatives. I wonder how many would surrender and how fast?

Also interesting:

A unit of up to 1300 fighters from the so-called "Kadyrovtsy" formation, the personal troops of Chechen warlord Ramzam Kadyrov, has arrived in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast to strengthen the Russian forces there, Ukraine's General Staff said in a Facebook post on 10 September.

I wonder what will happen to the Chechens?


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## special ed (Sep 12, 2022)

Re: The Su-25 pilots may not have the aviating skill level for combat. The MiG-25 pilot who defected to Japan said in his book they were lucky to get 10 hours per month in harvest season as the pilots were used to drive the tractors. He was astounded as he was nearly out of fuel, near Japan, to hear a woman's voice in his headset telling him he had 15 minutes of fuel left. None of his fellow pilots knew of this recorded warning. How much has changed?

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 12, 2022)

special ed said:


> Re: The Su-25 pilots may not have the aviating skill level for combat.


But they will have the basic skills for basic tactical maneuvers like flying in formation and doing multi-ship take offs. If this was a simple IFE, he "should have" had the training to address the situation.


special ed said:


> The MiG-25 pilot who defected to Japan said in his book they were lucky to get 10 hours per month in harvest season as the pilots were used to drive the tractors. He was astounded as he was nearly out of fuel, near Japan, to hear a woman's voice in his headset telling him he had 15 minutes of fuel left. None of his fellow pilots knew of this recorded warning. How much has changed?


From Victor Belenko back in 1976. I think depending what you're doing in Russian military aviation, this may or may not have changed. I've met (and flown) with a few Russian pilots who made their way to the US and their skill level varied. One guy claimed he had several hundred hours in MiG-21s, he could fly good but his formation skills were poor compared to US pilots I've been around. Another guy who flew "various" combat aircraft was sh!t hot.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 12, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I'm thinking that with the growing collapse of the Russian misadventures in Ukraine, could Putler get tempted to break out the nukes? Especially considering that a certain funeral would make a very major target for a decapitation strike...



I'm pretty sure they've run the math on that and figured out that it would end Russia's existence as an organized nation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 12, 2022)

_KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian troops expanded their territorial gains Monday, pushing all the way to the country’s northeastern border in places, and claimed to have captured a record number of Russian soldiers as part of the lightning advance that forced Moscow to make a hasty retreat.

A spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian troops were surrendering en masse as “they understand the hopelessness of their situation.” A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.

[...]

In his evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his forces have liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) in the east and the south since the beginning of September.

Now Ukrainian teams are disarming land mines and other unexploded weapons in the recaptured areas and searching for any remaining Russian troops, officials said.

It was not yet clear if the Ukrainian blitz could signal a turning point in the war. Momentum has switched back and forth before, but rarely with such a big and sudden swing.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich did not specify the number of Russian prisoners but said the POWs would be exchanged for Ukrainian service members held by Moscow. Military intelligence spokesman Andrey Yusov said the captured troops included “significant” numbers of Russian officers._









Ukraine reclaims more territory, reports capturing many POWs


KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian troops expanded their territorial gains Monday, pushing all the way to the country's northeastern border in places, and claimed to have captured a record number of Russian soldiers as part of the lightning advance that forced Moscow to make a hasty retreat.




apnews.com

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## fubar57 (Sep 13, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-invasion-day-201-1.6579663



Part of the news story....

".....Meanwhile, in Russia, there were some signs of disarray as Russian military bloggers and patriotic commentators chastised the Kremlin for failing to mobilize more forces and take stronger action against Ukraine. Russia has continuously stopped short of calling its invasion a war, instead describing it as a "special military operation" and relying on a limited contingent of volunteers instead of a mass mobilization that could spur civil discontent and protest. The Kremlin on Monday said Russia would achieve all of its aims in the military operation in Ukraine, its first public response to dramatic Ukrainian gains on the battlefield in the Kharkiv region. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to answer directly, when asked by a reporter if President Vladimir Putin had confidence in his military leadership, replying that the "special operation" would continue until it had achieved its goals."The military operation continues," Peskov said. "And it will continue until the goals that were originally set are achieved."...."

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Helmet? yes. Rest of the uniform and gear? Not even close.



Thanks!


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## GrauGeist (Sep 13, 2022)

So what was the Kremlin's goals for this "special military operation"?

To get get it's ass kicked, lose most of it's military gear to farm tractors, suffer horrific casualties, piss off most of the free world and turn their economy into a third world nation?

If the answer is yes, then they are most certainly reaching their goals.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Two questions for our resident tankers.
> 
> First: looking at this pic of russian equipment captured I noticed that the tank crew helmet is the same model that I got my hands on (albeit that one with NVG) as a young teenager some 30 years ago when going with my father to former USSR ships in Tenerife to be cambulloneros (BTW, the only ship I remember was named Khersones and was a school ship). Is the western tank crew equipment the same as 30 years ago?
> 
> ...


Not sure on the first question as more modern gear isn't my thing.

As to question two, if you are inside a tank you don't have a massively good ride once the ground gets lumpy so you can be off balance
pretty easily. A full steel infantry type helmet isn't good as you need to be able to move around - the bulk on your head wouldn't help
plus you already have a bit of armour around you anyway. The soft type stops the smacks and whacks from all the stuff sticking out
inside. A lot of AFV helmets in Western style use have a soft liner with a hard outer, a lot like a motor cycle helmet. These allow easy
movement with cushioning as well.

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## at6 (Sep 13, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> I wonder what will happen to the Chechens?


Starving Orcs will eat them?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 13, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Not sure on the first question as more modern gear isn't my thing.
> 
> As to question two, if you are inside a tank you don't have a massively good ride once the ground gets lumpy so you can be off balance
> pretty easily. A full steel infantry type helmet isn't good as you need to be able to move around - the bulk on your head wouldn't help
> ...


Many thanks!


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

Seen this rumor in several places. It may be true, but it may also be an Ukrainian spread rumour tu unstabilize Russian troops there.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh boy...



(Oh boy ...)^2

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## Glider (Sep 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> (Oh boy ...)^2



To me this has shades of the breakup of Yugoslavia

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 13, 2022)

special ed said:


> Re: The Su-25 pilots may not have the aviating skill level for combat. The MiG-25 pilot who defected to Japan said in his book they were lucky to get 10 hours per month in harvest season as the pilots were used to drive the tractors.





FLYBOYJ said:


> But they will have the basic skills for basic tactical maneuvers like flying in formation and doing multi-ship take offs. If this was a simple IFE, he "should have" had the training to address the situation.





FLYBOYJ said:


> I've met (and flown) with a few Russian pilots who made their way to the US and their skill level varied. One guy claimed he had several hundred hours in MiG-21s, he could fly good but his formation skills were poor compared to US pilots I've been around.


It looked to me like the wingman was sloppy in his formation flying. He got "sucked" in the turn, then steepened and closed too fast on lead, trying to duck under to avoid collision, perhaps with "boards out" and throttles snatched back, placing him slow and dirty in lead's right wingtip vortice, whereupon he slid left through the lead's jet blast, flaming out one or both engines. Low, slow, and dirty, high AoA and sudden thrust reduction, tends to invite a gravity takeover. He already was sliding and rolling left, so the resulting stall was asymmetric.

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## drgondog (Sep 13, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> He may be stupid but lets hope he's not dumb


neither, but he may be insane.

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## Glider (Sep 13, 2022)

According to the British MOD the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, the most prestigious Unit in Russia has been severely degraded.

The 1st Guards Tank Army, of the Western Military District, will require "years" to rebuild its capability as the main unit designed to defend Moscow and lead counter-attacks in the case of war with Nato, Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday.

In its daily intelligence briefing, the MoD said: "Elements of the Russian forces withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast over the last week were from the 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), which are subordinate to the Western Military District (WEMD).

"1 GTA suffered heavy casualties in the initial phase of the invasion and had not been fully reconstituted prior to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv."

If units such as this have been so badly handled, I doubt that Putin can do much. Any replacements will not be close to as well trained and equipped, while the Ukraine will be substantially strengthened as they further integrate their modern western equipment

His only chance is to defend for the next six months and try to rebuild his units.

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## drgondog (Sep 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> According to the British MOD the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, the most prestigious Unit in Russia has been severely degraded.
> 
> The 1st Guards Tank Army, of the Western Military District, will require "years" to rebuild its capability as the main unit designed to defend Moscow and lead counter-attacks in the case of war with Nato, Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday.
> 
> ...


I suspect one 'chance' is to suspend all energy products to NATO countries and bring the economies to brink of disaster. Continue shutting down Ukraine energy Grid to zero. Hold existing eastern and southern ports of entry and continue strangling logistics for war materials, food and medicine. 

Losing key assets is damaging to the offensive, no doubt - but recall that Russia has not declared War or mobilized yet. Ukraine can not trade troop losses.

Everybody hopes this will remain conventional, but -


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## SaparotRob (Sep 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



Glad to see ZSU east of that river by Kupiansk. The Ukrainian Army has a better handle on river crossings.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> It looked to me like the wingman was sloppy in his formation flying. He got "sucked" in the turn, then steepened and closed too fast on lead, trying to duck under to avoid collision, perhaps with "boards out" and throttles snatched back, placing him slow and dirty in lead's right wingtip vortice, whereupon he slid left through the lead's jet blast, flaming out one or both engines. Low, slow, and dirty, high AoA and sudden thrust reduction, tends to invite a gravity takeover. He already was sliding and rolling left, so the resulting stall was asymmetric.


I was thinking the same thing.


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 13, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> It looked to me like the wingman was sloppy in his formation flying. He got "sucked" in the turn, then steepened and closed too fast on lead, trying to duck under to avoid collision, perhaps with "boards out" and throttles snatched back, placing him slow and dirty in lead's right wingtip vortice, whereupon he slid left through the lead's jet blast, flaming out one or both engines. Low, slow, and dirty, high AoA and sudden thrust reduction, tends to invite a gravity takeover. He already was sliding and rolling left, so the resulting stall was asymmetric.


I buy some of this, I doubt both engines would flame out though. If he did not have structural failure, it's apparent he over banked and spun in. Even if he got into the lead's wake turbulence, it should have not tossed him around to an extent where he couldn't control the aircraft (Su25 T/O weight should be about 40,000 pounds so we're not talking small aircraft here).

There does seem to be something coming off the left wing. The Su25 does have speedbrakes at the wing tip IIRC. I'm wondering if that's the point of failure

The only other thing to took at is if he shelled an engine (compressor or turbine blew) and that resulted in taking out flight controls. I know these aircraft have a lot of armor around the engines to prevent this, but you can always have that one piece of engine shrapnel that got lucky.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

More on the Russian morale in Kherson (and hypotetical surrender)









Surrender Fever Sweeps Through Putin’s Troops After Russian Collapse in North


Ukrainian army says Russian units are pleading for peace in Kherson region after seeing their colleagues flee the battleground in northern Ukraine.



www.thedailybeast.com












Putin reeling as marines mutiny and troops prepare Kherson surrender


VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a mutiny among his elite troops on the Kherson front after they sustained massive losses.




www.express.co.uk

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## wlewisiii (Sep 13, 2022)

2022 - where you have a QR code to quit:

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> According to the British MOD the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, the most prestigious Unit in Russia has been severely degraded.
> 
> The 1st Guards Tank Army, of the Western Military District, will require "years" to rebuild its capability as the main unit designed to defend Moscow and lead counter-attacks in the case of war with Nato, Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday.
> 
> ...


Wikipedia editors are already upgrading 1 GTA entry 🤣

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs


EU countries’ efforts to avoid big shortages likely to ‘successfully solve’ Russian cuts, says bank




www.theguardian.com





Meanwhile in Russia









Russia's Budget Surplus Shrinks as Revenues Slide


Russia’s budget surplus shrank sharply in August, as revenues wilted under the pressure of lower energy production and sanctions.




financialpost.com

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 13, 2022)

Nice, seems like the Orcs just bitch slapped themselves.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 13, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I buy some of this, I doubt both engines would flame out though. If he did not have structural failure, it's apparent he over banked and spun in. Even if he got into the lead's wake turbulence, it should have not tossed him around to an extent where he couldn't control the aircraft (Su25 T/O weight should be about 40,000 pounds so we're not talking small aircraft here).
> 
> There does seem to be something coming off the left wing. The Su25 does have speedbrakes at the wing tip IIRC. I'm wondering if that's the point of failure
> 
> The only other thing to took at is if he shelled an engine (compressor or turbine blew) and that resulted in taking out flight controls. I know these aircraft have a lot of armor around the engines to prevent this, but you can always have that one piece of engine shrapnel that got lucky.


Maybe some loose nose armour altering the CoG Kobra-like?

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Maybe some loose nose armour altering the CoG Kobra-like?


Or the goundhog was sitting too far back

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## SaparotRob (Sep 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs
> 
> 
> EU countries’ efforts to avoid big shortages likely to ‘successfully solve’ Russian cuts, says bank
> ...


Putin wanted war with the West. This is how the West fights a war.

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## GTX (Sep 13, 2022)

Ukraine pushes to recapture more territory in rapid advance, calls for Western arms


The President calls on Ukraine's allies to strengthen cooperation to "defeat Russian terror" amid its troops gains in the country's north-east.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 13, 2022)

Man, I'd really like to see some numbers -- how many Russian PoWs, and how many Ukrainian reserves available for exploitation ops, mainly.

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## GTX (Sep 13, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Specifics please -facts and sources to contradict? Point out vested interest in article to deceive or subvert? In other words - why specifically do you claim 'skewed and not to be weighed as objective'?


You are kidding aren't you?

Nearly all involves quotes from 1 individual: Russian journalist Anatoly Karlin
Comes from known pro-Russian biased website
Stupid comments such as "_Russia will win. NATO weapons will be suppressed by the spirit of our fighters_. " and "I_n the seventh month of the war, Russia finally resorted to something NATO did to Serbia, and the U.S. subsequently did to Iraq._" or "_Russia might escalate in response to NATO's proxy war against it_"
And then finish it off with the fact that it is almost an incoherent rambling rather than an actual article.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> comments such as "_Russia will win. NATO weapons will be suppressed by the spirit of our fighters_. "


Where do I heard that before? 🤔...

Ahhhh... Imperial Japan, 1943-1945.

Maybe not the best result for the spirited fighters.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 13, 2022)

Russia didn't even start out with spirited fighters. Just "a bunch of blokes with rifles" looking for a couple of hundred bucks a month and a washing machine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Just "a bunch of blokes with rifles" [...]



M-N 91 rifles in many cases. That had to be inspiring.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 13, 2022)

I thought the washing machines were to provide circuit boards for their high tech equipment?


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 13, 2022)

'High morale the driving force of Ukrainian counter-offensive': Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia - ABC Radio National


Ukraine is now reclaiming its territory from Russian forces, with the speed and success of their offensive taking the world by surprise. Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia says that morale is high, but a lot will depend on Ukraine's military capabilities and the country needs to secure a supply...




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Sep 13, 2022)

I have wondered how well Ukraine's Army will be able to maintain a fluid supply line to their advancing forces.

This is one aspect that has plagued similar situations in the past.
Even Rommel and Patton had difficulties with it.
Without steady supplies, their momentum was hampered.

The one upside in this case, though, is that they are capturing intact Russian stockpiles, which helps considerably.

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## Mike Williams (Sep 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I have wondered how well Ukraine's Army will be able to maintain a fluid supply line to their advancing forces.



I've read that the Ukrainians were running short of their national flags for all the villages they were liberating

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## J_P_C (Sep 13, 2022)

- really good one!

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## Glider (Sep 13, 2022)

Take a note. If you are a member of the 93rd brigade, do not p--s this guy off.

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## drgondog (Sep 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> You are kidding aren't you?
> 
> Nearly all involves quotes from 1 individual: Russian journalist Anatoly Karlin
> Comes from known pro-Russian biased website
> ...


I'm sorry, I was less than specific. I wanted your rebuttal to the Counteroffensive and Market Implications paragraphs - not the quotes from Karlin which are hardly anything other than opinons from Russian side. Your comments on these last two opinion paragraphs .


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## GTX (Sep 13, 2022)

As Russia suffers losses in Ukraine, Xi wants the world to know he's got Putin's back


Xi Jinping will use his first trip outside China in more than two and a half years to publicly show support for Vladimir Putin, writes Bill Birtles.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Sep 13, 2022)

drgondog said:


> I'm sorry, I was less than specific. I wanted your rebuttal to the Counteroffensive and Market Implications paragraphs - not the quotes from Karlin which are hardly anything other than opinons from Russian side. Your comments on these last two opinion paragraphs .



Well, let's start with the statement "The longer the war goes on, more Ukrainian and Russian soldiers will get killed." Firstly, no Ukrainian or Russian soldiers need have died if Russia hadn't invaded in the first place. Then there's the rather obvious omission of Ukrainian civilian casualties in that opening sentence. Instead, the article strongly suggests ("And now Ukrainian civilians will suffer as Russia targets their infrastructure") that Russia is only now targeting civilians directly because of the change in tactics wrought by the Ukrainian military offensive. Failure to recognize the civilian casualties inflicted by Russian indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian cities smacks of a thoroughly Russophile interpretation of the conflict.

In the Market Implications paragraph we have another reference to "NATO's proxy war" again ignoring the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine. Overall the paragraph doesn't say anything that hasn't already been said in Western media. Russia could cut off fuel supplies, which is why the European nations have been scrambling to find mitigation approaches. In another Russophile slant, the Russian threat to cut off fuel supplies to Europe focuses on the impacts to the Western nations, with zero mention of the impact on Russia. Again, as I've said multiple times, Russia can't afford to cut off supplies entirely because it would halt one of the few sources of foreign income available to Moscow (and, no, India and China won't make up the deficit, even if Russia could overcome the logistical hurdles of pushing fuels eastwards when all their infrastructure points to the west).

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 13, 2022)

Rats flee everywhere!

In the North








Collaborators with Russian forces are fleeing, say Ukrainian officials


Queues reported at Russian border as Ukrainian citizens accused of collaborating leave areas around Kharkiv




www.theguardian.com





And in the south








Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, Kyiv claims – as it happened


Russian intelligence officers and military commanders in south ‘urgently resettling families’, Ukraine claims




www.theguardian.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 13, 2022)

Ukraine war: Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas


The BBC hears accusations that Russian forces electrocuted prisoners and shot civilians in the Kharkiv region.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 13, 2022)

drgondog said:


> I'm sorry, I was less than specific. I wanted your rebuttal


This sounds like a you problem. Is anyone else here interested in why your article is shyte? Let’s move on, imo.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 13, 2022)

Folks - PLEASE knock it off! We mods have been watching this and really don't want to shut this thread down!!! Now let's carry on!!!

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This sounds like a you problem. Is anyone else here interested in why your article is shyte? Let’s move on, imo.


And please let the moderators make that determination! Now lets move on!!

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Rats flee everywhere!
> 
> In the North
> 
> ...


So the operation to "denazify" Ukraine is derussofying instead? What a shame.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 13, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And please let the moderators make that determination! Now lets move on!!



Correct! For the sake of peace on the forum at the very least. 

However, the site is a well known source of conspiracy theory “fake news.” However, I think people should decide for themselves if they wish to read it. We should discuss all that further in the admin section though.

I would hope, however, that such sources being posted are limited by the posters personal choice (and that is just my personal opinion).

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## SaparotRob (Sep 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> M-N 91 rifles in many cases. That had to be inspiring.


I remember thinking of acquiring one a few years back. When I saw a picture of a Russian with one, I thought it had to be sniper.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I remember thinking of acquiring one a few years back. When I saw a picture of a Russian with one, I thought it had to be sniper.


The list of wars the M91 has been in, is ridiculously long (literally from the late 1890's to the present war in Ukraine).

The modern sniper version was converted from original rifles to the OTs-48 model about 20 years ago.

As an aside, I met a guy from Missouri years ago, who called his M91 a "mossy nugget".
I asked him if he meant Mosin Nagant and he said "yep, mossy nugget".

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## AAIR (Sep 13, 2022)

Another video, that may or may not be accurately represented, but too funny to not share:
A Ukrainian tree defeated a Russian tank as it ran away from the Armed Forces
If anyone knows this video to be from a different event rather than the recent Russian retreat, err... good will gesture, please post up.

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## AAIR (Sep 13, 2022)

This is disheartening news, new Russian tanks being produced:
New batch of T-90M Proryv tanks left the UralVagonZavod plant

This article also has links to a couple other tank production or repair articles:

New T-90M Proryv tanks continue to leave UralVagonZavod for Ukraine
Russia is creating two repair plants for its damaged tanks
Burnt tanks return to Russia, repair plants refuse repairs

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## k2keller (Sep 13, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I buy some of this, I doubt both engines would flame out though. If he did not have structural failure, it's apparent he over banked and spun in. Even if he got into the lead's wake turbulence, it should have not tossed him around to an extent where he couldn't control the aircraft (Su25 T/O weight should be about 40,000 pounds so we're not talking small aircraft here).
> 
> There does seem to be something coming off the left wing. The Su25 does have speedbrakes at the wing tip IIRC. I'm wondering if that's the point of failure
> 
> The only other thing to took at is if he shelled an engine (compressor or turbine blew) and that resulted in taking out flight controls. I know these aircraft have a lot of armor around the engines to prevent this, but you can always have that one piece of engine shrapnel that got lucky.


A good summary of the "informed speculation" here:The Drive: SU-25 crash may point to wider issues.
It appears it was at an airfield in Russia, rather than Crimea.

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## at6 (Sep 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> As Russia suffers losses in Ukraine, Xi wants the world to know he's got Putin's back
> 
> 
> Xi Jinping will use his first trip outside China in more than two and a half years to publicly show support for Vladimir Putin, writes Bill Birtles.
> ...


Maybe She Drink Pee should think about a few sanctions placed on his nasty arse.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 13, 2022)

AAIR said:


> This is disheartening news, new Russian tanks being produced:
> New batch of T-90M Proryv tanks left the UralVagonZavod plant
> 
> This article also has links to a couple other tank production or repair articles:
> ...


I wonder how accurate this is vs. propaganda. But 100 tanks does not replace the two thousand lost.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 13, 2022)

The Ukrainians didn't have much trouble taking out the ones Russia fielded last Spring...









Russia says its T-90 is one of the best tanks in the world, but it's having trouble in Ukraine


Despite Russia's promotion of the T-90s as some of the world's best tanks, their performance in Ukraine has raised questions about their quality.




www.businessinsider.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 13, 2022)

Deleted. I couldn’t find supporting evidence of my post.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Deleted. I couldn’t find supporting evidence of my post.



I thought it was already reported months ago he was already there. I could be wrong though.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I thought it was already reported months ago he was already there. I could be wrong though.


Yeah, once I investigated. It was clearly a nothing burger.


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## ThomasP (Sep 14, 2022)

re . . . 'Putin ally 'falls off boat into sea'

"At least eight Russian businessmen have died in apparent suicide or accidents in just six months"

and

"Another Russian energy boss dies mysteriously, as Putin ally ‘falls off boat’"

makes 9. 

I am thinking that Putin is going to have to sit at a long table and look over his shoulders (more than before the war) for the rest of his life.

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## ThomasP (Sep 14, 2022)

Interesting bit of info.

Recent US/NATO COMINT indicates some of the Russian forces in the Kherson area are concerned that they 'may have to get rid of the Chechens'.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting bit of info.
> 
> Recent US/NATO COMINT indicates some of the Russian forces in the Kherson area are concerned that they 'may have to get rid of the Chechens'.



Yep...that's another flaw in Putin's use of mercenary-like forces (IMHO, the Chechens definitely fall into that category). There's zero love lost between the Chechens and native Russians. Too much history and no willingness on either side to forgive and forget. 

I always thought that throwing Chechens into the fight would do more harm than good for Russia. Seems like I may have been right all along.

What's the source for that info? Do you have a linky?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 14, 2022)

Glider said:


> Take a note. If you are a member of the 93rd brigade, do not p--s this guy off.



He may well teach them the ins and outs of midnight requisitions.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re . . . 'Putin ally 'falls off boat into sea'
> 
> "At least eight Russian businessmen have died in apparent suicide or accidents in just six months"
> 
> ...


Accidents are the leading cause of death in this demographic. Any speculation is just tinfoil hat conspiracy theories.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 14, 2022)



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## WARSPITER (Sep 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder how accurate this is vs. propaganda. But 100 tanks does not replace the two thousand lost.


It may well be a case of drive 100 tanks in one end, clean them up, then drive them out the other end and say they are new.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


>




That’s fake news. Those chickens don’t have their heads cut off, so they’re nothing like the Russian military.

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## Dimlee (Sep 14, 2022)

Nothing is better than a combat report presented with a German(Austrian) accent. It cool down my nerves. I'll play it again instead of a soothing music at night.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Nothing is better than a combat report presented with a German(Austrian) accent.


Putin_, "Steiner's assault will bring it under control."_

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## GrauGeist (Sep 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Putin_, "Steiner's assault will bring it under control."_

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It may well be a case of drive 100 tanks in one end, clean them up, then drive them out the other end and say they are new.


As far as I know, all existing T-90 variants were planned to be modernized to T-90M from 2020 to 2025. Deliveries and orders of modernized T-90M continue through 2022 despite economic sanctions. Probably most, if not all, of those 100 tanks are older T90 versions updated to T-90M standard.

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## J_P_C (Sep 14, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I buy some of this, I doubt both engines would flame out though. If he did not have structural failure, it's apparent he over banked and spun in. Even if he got into the lead's wake turbulence, it should have not tossed him around to an extent where he couldn't control the aircraft (Su25 T/O weight should be about 40,000 pounds so we're not talking small aircraft here).
> 
> There does seem to be something coming off the left wing. The Su25 does have speedbrakes at the wing tip IIRC. I'm wondering if that's the point of failure
> 
> The only other thing to took at is if he shelled an engine (compressor or turbine blew) and that resulted in taking out flight controls. I know these aircraft have a lot of armor around the engines to prevent this, but you can always have that one piece of engine shrapnel that got lucky.


i tend to agree with you - assymetrical deployment of airbrake is most probable cause of this. During development of Su25 they have tested such thing for boosting aircraft control. Test has been conducted on high celling but response was so violent that test pilot refused to do it once more time and the test have been never repeated again.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 14, 2022)

Then .... and now ...








Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide


Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the...




www.reuters.com












Amid Ukraine’s effective counter-offensive, Russia’s FM Lavrov proposes negotiations with Kyiv


Moscow is not against negotiations with Kyiv, amid the broad Ukrainian counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the propagandist TV channel Russia-1 on Sept. 11.




news.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

Interesting "talking head" clip from Russian television. Clearly some soul-searching going on about how to proceed:



I particularly like the dig at the Andrey Turchak's comments while visiting Kharkiv that Russia will be there "forever."

I also note the guy, who steadfastly refuses to be interrupted, talks of mass mobilization pulling people out of factories to go to "war," not to "the special military operation."

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Then .... and now ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The comments about peace negotiations by Lavrov are interesting. Putting on my "eternal optimist" hat, I'm wondering if renewed negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow might give Russia a way out of this debacle. If Russia can secure political assurances from Kyiv to improve the way in which Russian-leaning people in eastern Ukraine are being treated, then Moscow can claim to have achieved its goals. There might just be the vaguest glimmer of hope for a political situation right now.

Think about it...the Azov Battalion was destroyed at Mariupol so Moscow can claim to have "de-nazified" Ukraine's military. Assurances about better treatment of pro-Russian people in the east will address causal factors for the fighting there. Such agreements could enable a ceasefire to be brokered and for Russian forces to withdraw.

Now....removing the "eternal optimist" hat, I'm not naiive enough to think this will happen quickly. Such agreements would still leave Russia in control of Crimea which Ukraine won't want. Also, any negotiated withdrawal by Russia, despite whatever positive spin Moscow puts on it, will be seen as a humiliating defeat, with the big, bad bear backing down in the face of a much smaller adversary. 

However, Ukrainian offensive successes have changed the context of the war and Moscow is under increasing pressure to either win decisively or find a way out. They can't order a general mobilization because they simply lack the resources to train and equip such a large force....plus it would take months before any decent forces could be sent into Ukraine. Other than nukes, there aren't many other good options on the table to bring about a Russian victory...and if you can't win, the best you can hope for is some sort of negotiated settlement that at least allows you to save face. At worst, it will be an all-out defeat which could cause Russia itself to implode, much as it did after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 14, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting "talking head" clip from Russian television. Clearly some soul-searching going on about how to proceed:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If Rusia lacks the resources to train and equip a large force (it must have some true if they are telling that in TV prime time), maybe the western sanctions are biting harder than is acknowedged publicly. Just saying.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 14, 2022)

We are not retreating! We are pushing forward in a different direction.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

Here's another awesome argument from Russian TV. The cracks are starting to appear in the Russian information monolith despite Moscow owning the news cycle:

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## Denniss (Sep 14, 2022)

Any peace negotiation with Russia under the current regime is useless because anything signed by them is not worth the paper its written on. They cannot be trusted and have proven this many times.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> At worst, it will be an all-out defeat which could cause Russia itself to implode, much as it did after the break-up of the Soviet Union.



Even without calamitous defeat, I suspect Putin's days are numbered.

Not that his replacement will be any better, in all likelihood. But even if the Russians win militarily, which I highly doubt, they will still be stuck in the trap and Putin's stature will still be sliding. I think a palace coup would be very likely under those circumstances, and that he might be better off biting the bullet now.

Of course, the Ukrainians are wanting to give him many more bullets to bite now that they're moving forward, so I'm unsure whether an agreement can be reached.


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## Dimlee (Sep 14, 2022)

Just 7 months ago I could not imagine that the "spineless" EU bureaucracy will speak like that:








Press corner


Highlights, press releases and speeches




ec.europa.eu

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## buffnut453 (Sep 14, 2022)

Looks like things are getting even more complicated within the Russian "sphere of influence":









Armenia says 105 troops killed in Azerbaijan border clashes


World leaders are intensifying diplomatic efforts to stop a full-blown war.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 14, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re . . . 'Putin ally 'falls off boat into sea'
> 
> "At least eight Russian businessmen have died in apparent suicide or accidents in just six months"
> 
> ...


Literally, with a friend like Putler, who needs enemies?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Looks like things are getting even more complicated within the Russian "sphere of influence":
> 
> 
> 
> ...



When the cat's away ...

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## SaparotRob (Sep 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The comments about peace negotiations by Lavrov are interesting. Putting on my "eternal optimist" hat, I'm wondering if renewed negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow might give Russia a way out of this debacle. If Russia can secure political assurances from Kyiv to improve the way in which Russian-leaning people in eastern Ukraine are being treated, then Moscow can claim to have achieved its goals. There might just be the vaguest glimmer of hope for a political situation right now.
> 
> Think about it...the Azov Battalion was destroyed at Mariupol so Moscow can claim to have "de-nazified" Ukraine's military. Assurances about better treatment of pro-Russian people in the east will address causal factors for the fighting there. Such agreements could enable a ceasefire to be brokered and for Russian forces to withdraw.
> 
> ...


If Ukraine can get into missile/artillery range of the Kerch Bridge, Putler might not have much choice about Crimea. Crimea is Ukrainian territory according to the nations arming Ukraine. The bridge is fair game. Taking out the bridge would be a game changer.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 14, 2022)

Interesting article about russian long range aviation in the war so far:









Russia’s Secretive Long-Range Bomber Operations Against Ukraine


An in-depth look at the obscured role played by Russia’s missile-armed long-range bomber triad in the ongoing war in Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The comments about peace negotiations by Lavrov are interesting. Putting on my "eternal optimist" hat, I'm wondering if renewed negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow might give Russia a way out of this debacle.


Now that they have the West on their side and the momentum, there's no way the Ukrainians will negotiate until all of Ukraine, especially including Crimea are back in Ukraine hands.

Zelenskyy - Feb. 22, "I don't need a ride. I need ammunition."

Russian soldier - Sept. 14, "I don't need ammunition. I need a ride."

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## GTX (Sep 14, 2022)

Ukraine Calls for More Australian Weapons as Its Forces Retake Territory


Australia promises to continue military aid as officials praise Ukraine’s ‘inspiring’ fightback against Russian forces




www.voanews.com

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## GTX (Sep 14, 2022)

Rheinmetall has restored 16 Marder IFVs for Ukraine but does not have the government permission to export them

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## GTX (Sep 14, 2022)

Ukraine's Astronomers Say There Are Tons of UFOs Over Kyiv - Slashdot


An anonymous reader quotes a report from Motherboard: Ukraine's airspace has been busy this year -- that's the nature of war. But scientists in the country are looking to the skies and seeing something they didn't expect: An inordinate number of UFOs, according to a new preprint paper published...



entertainment.slashdot.org







https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

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## GTX (Sep 14, 2022)

While world leaders gather in London, Putin and Xi have other plans


Putin’s war has not turned out the way he had hoped. When he last met Xi, the Russian leader thought he would seize Ukraine within a matter of days or weeks. Now his troops are on the run, writes David Speers.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 14, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits retaken city as Ukrainian forces push frontline, retreating Russian forces abandon tanks


Ukrainian troops pile pressure on retreating Russian forces, pressing deeper into occupied territory.




www.abc.net.au

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## J_P_C (Sep 14, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 14, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just 7 months ago I could not imagine that the "spineless" EU bureaucracy will speak like that:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Very nice words. Let's see how all of this come out. I don't trust the eurocrats.

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## manta22 (Sep 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine's Astronomers Say There Are Tons of UFOs Over Kyiv - Slashdot
> 
> 
> An anonymous reader quotes a report from Motherboard: Ukraine's airspace has been busy this year -- that's the nature of war. But scientists in the country are looking to the skies and seeing something they didn't expect: An inordinate number of UFOs, according to a new preprint paper published...
> ...


TOTAL BS

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine Calls for More Australian Weapons as Its Forces Retake Territory
> 
> 
> Australia promises to continue military aid as officials praise Ukraine’s ‘inspiring’ fightback against Russian forces
> ...


Australia is really showing up Canada. And we're a NATO member FFS. Canada produces one of the best AFV in the LAV series, but we send no armed variants to Ukraine? Apparently we sent 39 unarmed LAVs, without turrets, sights, etc. WTH?









Canada Supply Ukraine with Brand New Armoured Combat Support Vehicles, High-Resolution Cameras for Bayraktar TB2 UAV | Defense Express


Canada will send 39 LAV ACSV Super Bison infantry support combat vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as well as additional six high-resolution cameras for use on Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones




en.defence-ua.com





How the hell can this thing defend itself?







This is what we should be sending!


Land Systems Canada | LAV 6.0

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## at6 (Sep 14, 2022)

Since the Russians are leaving mines everywhere, let captured Russians locate them.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Australia is really showing up Canada. And we're a NATO member FFS. Canada produces one of the best AFV in the LAV series, but we send no armed variants to Ukraine? Apparently we sent 39 unarmed LAVs, without turrets, sights, etc. WTH?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


because it will be sent in back order?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 14, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> because it will be sent in back order?


Perhaps.... I think Canada has yet to send a single armed vehicle to Ukraine.


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## manta22 (Sep 14, 2022)

at6 said:


> Since the Russians are leaving mines everywhere, let captured Russians locate them.


Driving a herd of cattle through a minefield is the classic method of clearing it... besides preparing a next meal.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 14, 2022)

manta22 said:


> TOTAL BS


But it does lighten the mood.


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## swampyankee (Sep 14, 2022)

I've seen some reports of Russian forces in Ukraine mutinying (Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Express). Does anybody think that a) these are reliable and b), if reliable, does this make Putin more likely to escalate?


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## SaparotRob (Sep 14, 2022)

The only reports I've seen are sensational clickbait thumbnails which I ignore. Unless it's about UFOs.

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## elbmc1969 (Sep 14, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> I've seen some reports of Russian forces in Ukraine mutinying (Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Express). Does anybody think that a) these are reliable and b), if reliable, does this make Putin more likely to escalate?


There's some video of DPR troops arguing with a higher officer and telling him that they won't fight, their officers are thieves, etc.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 14, 2022)

elbmc1969 said:


> There's some video of DPR troops arguing with a higher officer and telling him that they won't fight, their officers are thieves, etc.


That's the gist here.









‘It’s Not an Army Here’: Russian Soldier Warns of Battlefield Collapse


Anadolu Agency via GettyRussia is said to be canceling plans to send new troops to Ukraine as more of its service members are reportedly refusing to fight following humiliating losses on the battlefield.Ukrainian intelligence reported Wednesday that members of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of...




ca.movies.yahoo.com

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## fubar57 (Sep 14, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-united-kingdom-training-1.6583326

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## at6 (Sep 14, 2022)

One thing that we keep forgetting, Russians soldiers don't steal. They liberate. They also plant flowers, kiss babies, and are kind to small animals in occupied territories.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> I've seen some reports of Russian forces in Ukraine mutinying (Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Express). Does anybody think that a) these are reliable and b), if reliable, does this make Putin more likely to escalate?



Without confirmation from a source with reporters on the ground locally (AP and Reuters both have them on the Ukrainian side, but not Russian), I'd withhold my judgement.

If they are indeed correct, I don't know that Putin can escalate aside from nukes, because instituting widespread conscription is widely regarded as potentially dangerous to his regime's stability.


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 15, 2022)

Besides Azerbaijan and Armenia now there are skirmishes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Keep an eye on China filling the void left by Russia.








Former Soviet states eye opportunities as Russia struggles in Ukraine


Moscow’s influence in the Caucasus and central Asia is being unravelled by its ‘special military operation’




www.theguardian.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 15, 2022)

Now would be the perfect time for Georgia to reclaim it's lost territory, too.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

Perhaps after Kherson City falls?


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## buffnut453 (Sep 15, 2022)

Russia's response to the Ukrainian offensive is becoming clearer....they're just schwacking anything that will hurt the civilian Ukrainian population. Latest attack is against a dam. There aren't words:









Ukraine war: Houses flooded after missiles hit major dam


Ukraine says the attack is revenge after it retook occupied territory from Russia in the east.



www.bbc.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 15, 2022)

The Sun is a sensationalist media and claim came from a Russian Telegram channel. Take this info with a grain a salt.









Putin's car 'attacked' in 'assassination attempt over Ukraine invasion'


VLADIMIR Putin’s limousine was allegedly attacked in a possible assassination attempt as the war in Ukraine rages on, Kremlin insiders claim. The Russian tyrant’s car was hit by a ̶…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 15, 2022)

Greatest propaganda ever. 😂

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Interesting article about russian long range aviation in the war so far:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've read several pieces about their use thus far. I had not idea that they weren't fitted out for free-fall bombs -- but later in the same article it implies they are. Thinking back, the articles I read mentioned only doing cruise-missile launches from well behind the lines.

But yeah, I've read of -22s and -160s being involved. Didn't know Bears were operating too. Thanks for the read.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now would be the perfect time for Georgia to reclaim it's lost territory, too.



You've mentioned this several times in this thread, and the more time goes along, the more it seems apt. But if the Georgians want to do something they should do it while the Russians are distracted.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The Sun is a sensationalist media and claim came from a Russian Telegram channel. Take this info with a grain a salt.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The mealy-mouthed language screams "horseshit!" Tabloid crap, needs a spoonful and not a grain.

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## at6 (Sep 15, 2022)

The Sun is the British version of The National Enquirer here in the USA. Believe them and you'll eat feces because they claim that it regrows hair.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've read several pieces about their use thus far. I had not idea that they weren't fitted out for free-fall bombs -- but later in the same article it implies they are. Thinking back, the articles I read mentioned only doing cruise-missile launches from well behind the lines.


The Tu-95&Tu-160 lack the capability of dropping free fall bombs but the Tu-22 could do it.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Now would be the perfect time for Georgia to reclaim it's lost territory, too.


Yes, I’ve got Georgia on my mind as well. I’m surprised they haven't already sent troops to retake the Russian held territories. The opportunity window is now, not after Russia has negotiated a peace with Ukraine. What are they waiting for?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What are they waiting for?


Maybe they don't want to start a war and look like the agressors or fear the russian answer after the war in Ukrainia (even during this war)


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Maybe they don't want to start a war and look like the agressors or fear the russian answer after the war in Ukrainia (even during this war)



Why would they be aggressors if they are simply trying take back their land that was taken from them?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Why would they be aggressors if they are simply trying take back their land that was taken from them?


To be fair, Ukraine was reticent to make a move to retake the Donbas and Crimea until Russia unwisely launched a renewed attack, one which the West would not let stand. To have the same conditions, Georgia needs Russia to launch an attack on their remaining territory, one that provokes the West to provide similar aid to Georgia that they’ve given Ukraine.

So, that explains their reticence. But no matter, the opportunity is now, Russia is weakened militarily. Now‘s your chance Georgia. Once this Ukraine war has a negotiated peace, with whatever Russia’s government becomes settling into its new path, the West won’t support anything that again stirs the pot. Georgia must act now.



But to their credit, Georgia is making some moves.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Why would they be aggressors if they are simply trying take back their land that was taken from them?


That frontier is "peaceful" right now. If Georgia attacks, that make them the agressors, objetively.

I don't mean they are the bad guys or that they don't have reasons to attack and grab back their land, just that they could be regarded as agressors and give Rusia an alibi to prosecute a bigger scale war now or in the future.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That frontier is "peaceful" right now. If Georgia attacks, that make them the agressors, objetively.
> 
> I don't mean they are the bad guys or that they don't have reasons to attack and grab back their land, just that they could be regarded as agressors and give Rusia an alibi to prosecute a bigger scale war now or in the future.



It is still their land, they would be taking back what is rightfully theirs and was taken by the real aggressor, Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It is still their land, they would be taking back what is rightfully theirs and was taken by the real aggressor, Russia.


Well sure, I don't think anyone is arguing that point. I doubt there are many/any Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When the time is right, Georgia could probably send in a small force to take over.... but Georgia needs a pretense to act.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well sure, I don't think anyone is arguing that point. I doubt there are many/any Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When the time is right, Georgia could probably send in a small force to take over.... but Georgia needs a pretense to act.



I think you mean _pretext_ and not "pretense"?

In any event, the pretext would be "recovering territory wrongfully seized from us by Russia", I'd think.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well sure, I don't think anyone is arguing that point. I doubt there are many/any Russian troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When the time is right, Georgia could probably send in a small force to take over.... but Georgia needs a pretense to act.



Well, yes, someone is. Our friend said Georgia does not want to be seen as an aggressor. They are not the aggressor. Period. They have been occupied by an aggressor the entire time. Why would they need justification to re-take their land?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think you mean _pretext_ and not "pretense"?
> 
> In any event, the pretext would be "recovering territory wrongfully seized from us by Russia", I'd think.



Exactly, I understand they would need support from NATO to do such an undertaking, but Georgia already has all the justification it needs. They are the defender, not the aggressor. 

Now, having said that. If they are going to wait support from NATO they may need to wait. NATO can only provide so much support without degrading its own capabilities. I think they already have all their eggs in the Ukrainian basket.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well, yes, someone is. Our friend said Georgia does not want to be seen as an aggressor. They are not the aggressor. Period. They have been occupied by an aggressor the entire time. Why would they need justification to re-take their land?


I agree, Georgia does not want to be seen as an aggressor. Otherwise they would have attacked Abkhazia and South Ossetia already. If tomorrow China attacks Vladivostok to regain what was stolen from them, we could argue China has every right to take back their land. But the world would still consider China an aggressor nation.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well, yes, someone is. Our friend said Georgia does not want to be seen as an aggressor. They are not the aggressor.


Perhaps that Georgia don't want to do the first shot is a better wording that agressor.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I agree, Georgia does not want to be seen as an aggressor. Otherwise they would have attacked Abkhazia and South Ossetia already. If tomorrow China attacks Vladivostok to regain what was stolen from them, we could argue China has every right to take back their land. But the world would still consider China an aggressor nation.



Disagree. China and Georgia have one huge difference, and that is the Russian occupation of Georgian territory is recent and ongoing. 

Using your logic, we need to rewrite the entire globe. I guess we should all be Romans, Vikings, or some other ancient nation-state.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 15, 2022)

I see a Mongolian herdsman emerging from his yurt. 
"As a descendant of the Great Khan, I lay claim to all the lands historically belonging to the Mongol Empire!"

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## WARSPITER (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Disagree. China and Georgia have one huge difference, and that is the Russian occupation of Georgian territory is recent and ongoing.
> 
> Using your logic, we need to rewrite the entire globe. I guess we should all be Romans, Vikings, or some other ancient nation-state.


That will be easy. Just identify as ... Roman, Viking, Persian, Sumerian, general issue Celt - then you can claim the bloody lot.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I see a Mongolian herdsman emerging from his yurt.
> "As a descendant of the Great Khan, I lay claim to all the lands historically belonging to the Mongol Empire!"



Exactly


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## GrauGeist (Sep 15, 2022)

Vladivostok was ceeded under a legally binding treaty between the respective governments. If anyone would have a claim to it, it's Taiwan, since they were the actual government of China before the communists seized power and forced the government to relocate to Formosa.

The territory in Georgia was seized and occupied by military force.

When the Soviet Union fell, the nations that emerged had borders established (or reestablished) with Moscow's participation in the international recognition process. From that point onward, rolling in with tanks under the auspices of "it used to be ours!" or "we're here to save people that *may* speak our language" is nothing more than conquest.

Georgia has every right to go in and remove the occupying forces just as Ukraine does.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Vladivostok was ceeded under a legally binding treaty between the respective governments. If anyone would have a claim to it, it's Taiwan, since they were the actual government of China before the communists seized power and forced the government to relocate to Formosa.
> 
> The territory in Georgia was seized and occupied by military force.
> 
> ...


That's it in a nutshell. Georgia would not be the aggressor as they would be simply be removing the aggressor.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Vladivostok was ceeded under a legally binding treaty between the respective governments. If anyone would have a claim to it, it's Taiwan, since they were the actual government of China before the communists seized power and forced the government to relocate to Formosa.
> 
> The territory in Georgia was seized and occupied by military force.
> 
> ...



Well said, and explained very well.

I’ll stand by my comment, Georgia is not an aggressor if they chose to fire the first shots. Effectively it would be a counter offensive.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Georgia has every right to go in and remove the occupying forces just as Ukraine does.


No one is suggesting otherwise. But having the right to do something is not the same as being able to do it.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> To be fair, Ukraine was reticent to make a move to retake the Donbas and Crimea until Russia unwisely launched a renewed attack, one which the West would not let stand. To have the same conditions, Georgia needs Russia to launch an attack on their remaining territory, one that provokes the West to provide similar aid to Georgia that they’ve given Ukraine.
> 
> So, that explains their reticence. But no matter, the opportunity is now, Russia is weakened militarily. Now‘s your chance Georgia. Once this Ukraine war has a negotiated peace, with whatever Russia’s government becomes settling into its new path, the West won’t support anything that again stirs the pot. Georgia must act now.
> 
> ...



Love the tweet linked showing Gerasimov(?) giving an update.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No one is suggesting otherwise. But having the right to do something is not the same as being able to do it.



Actually, stating they don’t want to be seem as aggressors is doing just that.

We’ll move along though. I think we have proven the opposite is true.

Edit: I think we all understand now the intent of the original poster.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Actually, stating *they don’t want to be seem* as aggressors is doing just that.
> 
> We’ll move along though. I think we have proven the opposite is true.


English isn't my mother language but the bold part (my emphasis) I think is different enough than saying that they are the agressors.

Anyway, I'm done with this

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> English isn't my mother language but the bold part (my emphasis) I think is different enough than saying that they are the agressors.
> 
> Anyway, I'm done with this



Yes, I understand. I’m not attacking you or your english. I also understand what you are trying to say, and you are not wrong.

By the way, your English is just fine my friend.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 15, 2022)

The army Putin spent 2 decades building has been largely destroyed in Ukraine, and Russia's 'strategic defeat' could threaten his regime


"You're starting to see rumblings — both on TV and at the local grassroots level — of discontent with his leadership," one expert told Insider.




www.businessinsider.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 15, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

The other driver was lucky. I imagine Zelenskyy's bodyguard are ready to shoot to kill.









Ukraine's president in car accident, no serious injuries: spokesman


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's car collided with another vehicle early Thursday after a battlefield visit, but he was not seriously injured, his spokesman said.




www.cp24.com

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

manta22 said:


> TOTAL BS


Yep - note my

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

Ukraine calls for 30 more Bushmasters, offers to pressure-test new Hawkeis


Ukraine's ambassador to Australia says troops are getting creative in the way they're using Bendigo-made Bushmasters in the war with Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

Russian forces fortify defences after chaotic retreat in Ukraine's north-east


Ukrainian officials say Russian forces are fortifying defences and it will be hard for Kyiv's troops to maintain the pace of their advance




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

Putin reveals China has expressed 'concerns' about Ukraine war at summit with Xi Jinping


Russia's President says Moscow backs Beijing's "One China" policy and opposes "provocations" by the US in the Taiwan Strait.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

A time 'to show resolve, not appeasement' says European Commission President in state of the union address


European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the annual state of the union address, saying "this is the time for us to show resolve, not appeasement".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

I never realised there was a "pro-Ukrainian Chechen group":

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> I never realised there was a "pro-Ukrainian Chechen group":



Named after the first president of the independent Chechenia, killed by Rusia with a missile in some kind of ambush in a meeting with russian officials (or in the way to) IIRC.

BTW, he was a Su-25 pilot during the soviet invasion of Afganistán and was shoot down by a pakistani F-16.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


>



With that many different equipment, mantienance could become a nightmare.

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

With successful Kharkiv operation, Ukraine turns the war in its favor


KHARKIV – In warfare, there's no such thing as a miracle. Yet what happened in early September in the east of Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast may ascend in history as the Miracle on the Oskil River. Within a few days, a




kyivindependent.com

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> With that many different equipment, mantienance could become a nightmare.


Without a doubt but I think at this stage the Ukrainians will take what ever they can. When the war is over there will need to be a rationalising.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


>




Uh-oh ... that's gonna piss the Tractor Brigade off, stepping onto their turf like that.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

_KYIV, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he understood China's Xi Jinping had concerns about the situation in Ukraine, a surprise acknowledgement of friction with Beijing over the war after a week of stunning Russian losses on the ground.

Since Russia's invasion, China has trod a careful line, criticising Western sanctions against Russia but stopping short of endorsing or assisting in the military campaign.

"We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," Putin told Xi at their first meeting since the war began.

[...]

The Russian president's comments suggested a Chinese shift towards a more critical stance, in private at least. Ian Bremmer, political science professor at Columbia University, said they were the "first public sign of Putin recognizing pressure to back down".

"Russia has become a pariah to the G7 because of their invasion. China wants no part of that," he wrote on Twitter, referring to the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations.

[...]

In Kyiv, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, held talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy where she told him Ukraine's accession process to the European Union was well on track.

[...]

After a week of the fastest Ukrainian gains since the war's early weeks, Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were now fortifying defences and it would be hard for Kyiv's troops to maintain the pace of their advance.

[...]

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova had earlier warned Washington to tread carefully, saying any decision to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles for U.S.-made HIMARS systems would cross a "red line" and make the United States "a direct party to the conflict"._









Putin acknowledges China's concerns over Ukraine in sign of friction


Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he understood China's Xi Jinping had concerns about the situation in Ukraine, a surprise acknowledgement of friction with Beijing over the war after a week of stunning Russian losses on the ground.




www.reuters.com





A couple of thoughts on the above article:

1) Xi almost certainly gave Putin the Chinese critique in polite but unmistakable language. Given that the Russians need to sell oil and buy chips etc, it looks to me like string-pulling. Reading between the lines, it looks like Putin got told.

2) The Ukrainians seem to not have sufficient reserves to exploit their victory fully. That's okay. They have almost certainly assured their survival through the winter (barring unforeseen calamity, of course), during which time Ukrainian pilots will greatly advance and perhaps complete their training on F-16s, as well as the military in general receive further tranches of advanced weaponry and munitions. And the morale in the Russian army must be execrable.

3) If Russia wants to pick a fight over America sending Ukraine ATACMS, fine. Let us know how that works out for you. Clearly those weapons are making a great impression upon Russian fighting forces, else they wouldn't be griping about them.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin reveals China has expressed 'concerns' about Ukraine war at summit with Xi Jinping
> 
> 
> Russia's President says Moscow backs Beijing's "One China" policy and opposes "provocations" by the US in the Taiwan Strait.
> ...


Like, what the heck else can he say? The article didn’t say if he then kow-towed to the emperor.

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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 15, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Sep 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 2) The Ukrainians seem to not have sufficient reserves to exploit their victory fully. That's okay. They have almost certainly assured their survival through the winter (barring unforeseen calamity, of course), during which time Ukrainian pilots will greatly advance and perhaps complete their training on F-16s, as well as the military in general receive further tranches of advanced weaponry and munitions. And the morale in the Russian army must be execrable.




There was a recent press release stating that freshly trained Ukraine soldiers are headed to Ukraine from the UK and it was a substantial amount of men.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> There was a recent press release stating that freshly trained Ukraine soldiers are headed to Ukraine from the UK and it was a substantial amount of men.



I think that's about 10-12,000 men? I seem to remember reading numbers in that ballpark. That's a small division. Put them into consolidation duties, let them be blooded there, and you'll have more veteran troops to push forward if you can manage that.

Is there something I've missed?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin reveals China has expressed 'concerns' about Ukraine war at summit with Xi Jinping
> 
> 
> Russia's President says Moscow backs Beijing's "One China" policy and opposes "provocations" by the US in the Taiwan Strait.
> ...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 15, 2022)

Hopefully this is another indicator of Russian desperation:









Wagner Group: Head of Russian mercenary group filmed recruiting in prison


Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered prisoners their freedom in exchange for six months service in Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hopefully this is another indicator of Russian desperation:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Nothing says "elite" quite like recruiting from prisons. 

It hearkens back to the days when judges in America would give convicts the option of going to prison, or enlisting. Ask the Vietnamese how that worked out.

TL/DR: Scraping bottom of barrel.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> There was a recent press release stating that freshly trained Ukraine soldiers are headed to Ukraine from the UK and it was a substantial amount of men.


I wonder if another 10-15,000 Ukranian soldiers will now rotate through the UK. Now that the training scheme is up and running I assume NATO will keep it going until Ukraine has 100,000 plus advanced trained soldiers. These will then train other Ukrainian recruits until by summer 2023 Ukraine will have half a million soldiers trained and equipped, ready to go. By autumn 2023 the place is going to be like Sparta, where every free man is a soldier.

Ukraine government news says it’s 5,000. So it’s probably at least three times that.









5,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Have Finished Training in Great Britain Already: They Were Preparing for Battles in Cities | Defense Express


The scale of training provided to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the emphasis on training specifically for urban combat, speaks a lot already




en.defence-ua.com

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## wlewisiii (Sep 15, 2022)

OTOH, when the PLA invaded Vietnam in 1979, the Vietnamese went to their reeducation camps and told the ARVN vets that if they fought the Chinese the survivors would be released. They kept their word after the Chinese were sent running north.

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## drgondog (Sep 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he understood China's Xi Jinping had concerns about the situation in Ukraine, a surprise acknowledgement of friction with Beijing over the war after a week of stunning Russian losses on the ground.
> 
> Since Russia's invasion, China has trod a careful line, criticising Western sanctions against Russia but stopping short of endorsing or assisting in the military campaign.
> 
> ...


While I agree the 'probability' of your interpretation, let's review the bidding.
1.) Russia, China, US and probably UK, France and India (maybe Pakistan, maybe Iran) have a full range of offensive options avialable in the grab bag.
The grab bagtools and delivery mechanisms - independent of sane oversight (Russia is no the only entity where 'sane' is questionable'), are
AI 
CBW including Covid, Smallpox, variations on Ebola, Sarin, etc., etc.
Nucs ranging from back pack to Boomers 
EMP by nuc, by advanced 'Fly by' 
Hacking Grid systems
Economic manipulation - financial, energy, food/fertilizer, political
Kinetic capabilities
Allies

2.) Russia has exercised 1. Kinetics, 2.) hacking grid systems, 3.) economic manipulation but has all the others available depending on will and perceived risk to Russia.

3.) US/NATO strategy that has been useful to Ukraine in DEFENSE is supply of massive weapon grab bag and 'goodwill' to sic Ukraine on Russia and bleed each other to death - with few tangible consequences

4.) US contemplating sending intermediate OFFENSIVE missile systems which by the clearest definition means NATO and US engage in WWIII kinetically against Russia by proxy with almost 100% certainty that Russia recognizes the act as an act of war.

Why does anyone think a.) Russia will gracefully accept this 'adventure' of NATO resisting the invasion of Ukraine as a simple misunderstanding of the new reality of willingness to engage Russia kinetically for a non-NATO country, when such will was not evident in Georgia and Crimea? and b.) that Russia will NOT escalate responses to see who blinks first at the implied threat of global NUC/WMD? 

Reflect on absent adult supervision and clear intent from US, France, UK (with new PM), while China and India and Taiwan and North/South Korea and Japan are poised waiting for the next shoe to drop> I Don't hink China will fail to exploit the current situation with signs of Russian weakness, but any nationstate that ignores an unbalanced Leader in custody of 5000+ nucs is stupid.

Is everybody on the forum basically thinking 'whatever'? 

I'm old enough and close enough to every adventure the US has embarked on from Korea through Afghanistan and still contemplating 'what was the right course of action for the People of the United States - much less for everyone else."

I believe that Russia/China axis vs Ukraine/NATO is an existential threat to civilization as we know it - but have no idea where the exit on this road to hell will show up.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

drgondog said:


> While I agree the 'probability' of your interpretation, let's review the bidding.
> 1.) Russia, China, US and probably UK, France and India (maybe Pakistan, maybe Iran) have a full range of offensive options avialable in the grab bag.
> The grab bagtools and delivery mechanisms - independent of sane oversight (Russia is no the only entity where 'sane' is questionable'), are
> AI
> ...



I'm not thinking "whatever" at all. I am thinking that with the rise of authoritarianism in the world, that it is very important to punch it in the face forthwith. Bullies don't want fights, they want easy victories. I agree with you that this is a confrontation between democratic values and autocracy. That is exactly why we need to support Ukraine -- they are not just fighting for their own nation, they are fighting for the right of a people to decide their own destiny.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

drgondog said:


> 3.) US/NATO strategy that has been useful to Ukraine in DEFENSE is supply of massive weapon grab bag and 'goodwill' to sic Ukraine on Russia and bleed each other to death - with few tangible consequences



This last week of operations would like to have a word with you. Step this way, please.

Seriously, "few tangible consequences"?

Makes me think of this:

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## GrauGeist (Sep 15, 2022)

If anything, Russia's blunder in Ukraine has made China step back and rethink their approach to their "Taiwan" issue.

Instead of assaulting it en masse and risking world condemnation, would they then perhaps nibble away at it instead, like Russia did with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine (in 2014) while the world sits quietly by?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If anything, Russia's blunder in Ukraine has made China step back and rethink their approach to their "Taiwan" issue.
> 
> Instead of assaulting it en masse and risking world condemnation, would they then perhaps nibble away at it instead, like Russia did with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine (in 2014) while the world sits quietly by?



The strait islands are the tripwire. Because Taiwan's an island, subtlety is going to be a rare commodity. It's pretty hard to run an amphibious invasion under-the-table like Russia did the Donbas insurgency support. 

While I agree that China must be looking at Russia's sanctions and recalculating, I also think China has so much more economic leverage that they may well not be dissuaded. I don't know. It's really hard for me to read the Chinese tea-leaves.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 15, 2022)

Like how Britain’s fast Jan-Feb 1942 collapse in the IPTO demonstrated that much of British global power was a myth, resulting in massive geopolitical changes postwar, much of the world will no longer respect nor fear Russian military or political posturing.

China needs bread and circuses to keep their mob distracted. If Taiwan is untouchable due to a newly armed and united West, I see China going northward. Unlike 1941-45, no one is going to come to Russia’s aid this time around. Likely China’s first moves will be to strengthen relations with the ‘Stans to China’s West. Having broken away from Soviet/CIS rule and now that their corrupt leaders are no longer protected by a demonstrably useless Russia, the ‘Stans will be looking for a strong friend.







This news yesterday shows that China and Kazakhstan, for example are moving ahead with closer relations. 









China-Kazakhstan economic links expected to see rapid development


China-Kazakhstan business cooperation is expected to experience rapid growth in the coming years, as both countries actively promote regional connectivity, the growth of foreign trade and energy-related projects to further boost their business ties, said experts and government officials.




global.chinadaily.com.cn

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Like how Britain’s fast Jan-Feb 1942 collapse in the IPTO demonstrated that much of British global power was in rapid decline, reaulting in massive geopolitical changes postwar, much of the world will no longer respect nor fear Russian military or political posturing.



Agreed, the mask is off the tiger, and it turns out to be a housecat. The eclipse of an empire.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

Putin can't be one Xi's favorite people. The Mad Russian has got the West re-arming. Taiwan is strengthening its defenses. Korea and Poland might become a more real axis than Russia and China. Taiwan is taking a cue from Ukraine and the (belated) Western response. You can stand up to a bully! But I'll bet Haishenwai is looking tastier and tastier and its got a harbor. 
Russia's economy can't handle a mobilization. They can't replace ammunition domestically. Their civil aviation is dying. They can't replace that many tanks. How is the Russian economy going to produce 50,000 Ladas?
If you really want to see how the war is going, check out the financial pages. What's oil doing? After initial panic buying, the price is coming down. It went up to $110 a barrel. It's now $85.49 as I look at a stock screen. Russia is getting killed. China and India can acquire only so much DISCOUNTED oil. So they sell to the West in some shady deal. Russia ain't seeing a kopek of it. 
Skip CNN, FOX, DW and the BBC. Read market reports and see how messed up China's economy is becoming. Xi ain't looking for any more disruptions to his economy.
You want the truth? Follow the money.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You want the truth? Follow the money.


BINGO!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Like how Britain’s fast Jan-Feb 1942 collapse in the IPTO demonstrated that much of British global power was a myth, resulting in massive geopolitical changes postwar, much of the world will no longer respect nor fear Russian military or political posturing.
> 
> China needs bread and circuses to keep their mob distracted. If Taiwan is untouchable due to a newly armed and united West, I see China going northward. Unlike 1941-45, no one is going to come to Russia’s aid this time around. Likely China’s first moves will be to strengthen relations with the ‘Stans to China’s West. Having broken away from Soviet/CIS rule and now that their corrupt leaders are no longer protected by a demonstrably useless Russia, the ‘Stans will be looking for a strong friend.
> 
> ...


That northward gaze of Xi must be eyeing that port facility. It will allow his navy to get around the net currently restricting China, bypassing Taiwan for now. I'd rather see Russia keep it.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 15, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'd rather see Russia keep it.



I would not mind seeing the two fight over it, however.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 15, 2022)

Me too! Watch out for Japanese torpedo boats!

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## at6 (Sep 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin reveals China has expressed 'concerns' about Ukraine war at summit with Xi Jinping
> 
> 
> Russia's President says Moscow backs Beijing's "One China" policy and opposes "provocations" by the US in the Taiwan Strait.
> ...


Mutual masturbation. Can't stand the sight of Pootler or She Drink Pee. Wish both would drink the Jones Town Cool Aide.

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## at6 (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Some where there is a farmer crying because he wanted the prize.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Me too! Watch out for Japanese torpedo boats!


Forget those, keep an eye on the Izumo and Kaga.

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## ThomasP (Sep 16, 2022)

re Georgia voluntarily engaging the Russians militarily:

Georgian Armed Forces were ~1/20th to 1/25th the size of the Russian Armed Forces pre Ukraine invasion
and
Georgian Defense Budget in 2021 was ~1/200th of the Russian Defense Budget in 2021
depending on what numbers you use.

Not saying it can not be done, but . . . eeek!

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## ThomasP (Sep 16, 2022)

re Chechens fighters in Ukraine

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently the nominal Head of the Chechen Republic, and is a friend/associate of Putin. Fairly early on in the war in Ukraine he sent 4x battalion size units and some SOF units to the Ukraine to fight on the side of the Russians. It has been reported that at least some of the Chechen SOF were deployed in order to assassinate Zelenskyy. All of the original units have been pretty much used up, with casualties variously reported as anywhere upto 70%, with at least 2x of the battalions withdrawn back to Chechen Republic and 1x battalion who's whereabouts/continued existence is unknown.

Kadyrov recently (early September) sent his "personal" bodyguard/battalion to Ukraine. These are the Chechens I mentioned in my post# 10,492

""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again.""

and #10,559

""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again.""

We will have to see if they do better or worse than the previous units.


OTOH, there have been 2x Chechen 'battalions' fighting on the side of the Ukraine since early on, the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion and the Sheikh Mansur Battalion. I do not have any details on how well they have done, but they have earned the respect of the Ukraine AF. See:

"Chechen and Tatar Muslims take up arms to fight for Ukraine | DW | 24.03.2022"

and

""

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

Some discussions between Washington and Ottawa on Canada producing ammunition.









As Ukraine war rages on, U.S. examines whether Canadian firms can replenish ammunition stockpiles


The U.S. wants to gather information on firms to determine which might be able to help build 12,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition a month.




ottawacitizen.com





It's only fair that Canada produce rather than just procure its military stocks where possible. That said, I didn't know that Canada had any capability whatsoever to produce ammunition beyond rifle caliber. So, here we go, a list of Canada's artillery projectile firms... 

General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada





PROJECTILES | IMT Defence







imtdefence.com

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## Mike Williams (Sep 16, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Nothing is better than a combat report presented with a German(Austrian) accent. It cool down my nerves. I'll play it again instead of a soothing music at night.



I was thrilled to hear of the success with the Kharkiv offensive but troubled with progress in the Kherson area. The Austrian commentator stated that the "Russians effectively counter attacked and inflicted high losses in key areas"  The counterattack in the Kherson area appears stalled although information is scanty. This analyst below describes Ukrainian progress in the Kherson counteroffensive as slow, steady and moving forward, which I find encouraging.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

Mike Williams said:


> I was thrilled to hear of the success with the Kharkiv offensive but troubled with progress in the Kherson area.


The slower progress is a result of Ukraine and the West announcing that Kherson was Sept's planned UAF offensive. It worked, Russia sent much of its army to Kherson, allowing the UAF to liberate Kharkiv. But the UAF must now shift the same large Russian force that they encouraged to move to Kherson. The 10-15,000 newly trained arrivals from Britain will help.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

_A mass burial site was found in the recaptured Ukrainian city of Izyum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Thursday. 

Zelensky told the Ukrainian people that more "clear, verified" information about the site should be available on Friday, but the necessary "procedural actions" have begun. He said Ukrainian and international journalists will be in Izyum on Friday. 

"We want the world to know what is really happening and what the Russian occupation has led to. Bucha, Mariupol, now, unfortunately, Izyum … Russia leaves death everywhere. And it must be held accountable for that," Zelensky said, referencing other cities in Ukraine that have come under intense Russian attacks that have killed many Ukrainians. _



https://thehill.com/policy/international/3645426-zelensky-says-mass-burial-site-found-in-recently-recaptured-city-of-izyum/



Sad to say, this is entirely unsurprising.

Regarding the latest aid package:

_
"Yesterday, President Biden approved the latest tranche of U.S. assistance to Ukraine. It's valued at up to $675 million," Austin told reporters following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. 

A list later released by the Pentagon detailed the contents of the package, which includes four 105mm Howitzers and 36,000 accompanying artillery rounds, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), additional High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARM), 100 Humvees, 50 armored ambulances, anti-tank systems, small arms and more. 
_



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3634249-us-to-send-2b-to-ukraine-18-other-countries-at-risk-of-russia/

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

A really good piece from noted historian and author Anne Applebaum: 



https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/671405/

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _A mass burial site was found in the recaptured Ukrainian city of Izyum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Thursday. _


And yet still NATO won't release Abrams or Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Spain has a warehouse full of Leopard 2 tanks that they would send if the Germans would support the move with spare parts. Canada would likely send its Leopard 2 tanks as well, if nudged by the USA and supported by Germany with spares. If you're used to T-72s, a modern MBT does take some learning, but this isn't akin to an Su-25 driver moving to an F-16. If the UAF can figure out HIMARS, they can sort out a Leopard 2 PDQ. 

What the heck are the Germans waiting for? If they want to keep their own Leopard 2 tanks, fine, but don't block the Spanish and others from sending theirs. What's Germany up to?



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/germany-has-the-tanks-ukraine-needs-it-must-send-them-asap/2022/09/15/70849242-34b3-11ed-a0d6-415299bfebd5_story.html











Germany promised Ukraine weapons but hasn't delivered. Now, anger toward Berlin is rising


Germany's reticence has prompted critics to look for ulterior motives for its reluctance — with some citing World War II.




www.cnbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

Spain's 2A4s are in poor shape and in need of extensive repair.

Even if Germany allowed Spain to send them, it would take some effort and time to get them into battle ready condition.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Spain's 2A4s are in poor shape and in need of extensive repair. Even if Germany allowed Spain to send them, it would take some effort and time to get them into battle ready condition.


It's a shame Spain didn't already start to refurb these tanks, if only due to rising threats to NATO for their own needs. Were Spain's Leopards stored outside, under a tarp? What's their true condition? Assuming the Spanish (with NATO help) started today, how long does it take to refurb forty Leopard 2s? 

Heck, ship all forty to Quebec to refurb at Rheinmetall Canada's dedicated Leopard 2 maintenance facility (shown below) and give Ukraine forty of Canada's operational Leopard 2s in exchange. 












Or just start repairing Spain's donated Leopard 2s now so that they can be transported to Poland in time for Ukraine's spring 2023 offensive. Just do something with these tanks FFS.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

Poland is receiving 116 US M1A1 Abrams, with deliveries starting last July.

This is to replace the 200 or so T-72s they sent to Ukraine.

The numbers are a bit hazy, but it appears that Ukraine has more tanks than the Russians at the moment - between their initial force, donated AFVs and captured units, they are doing well in that respect.

What they need, is to establish air superiority and exploit that aspect.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet still NATO won't release Abrams or Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.



I know I'm being pedantic but NATO doesn't have any Abrams or Leopard 2 tanks. The only forces NATO owns are the fleet of AWACS and, IIRC, a few Global Hawks. All other forces are owned and operated by NATO member nations.

It's a subtle distinction but it needs to be made because it's down to the member nations to decide how they manage their own defence assets. NATO (the Organization) can't mandate anything regarding provision of military aid to Ukraine.

I'll now go back to my other hobby....databasing instances of apostrophe misuse on the internet. It's a job for life!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

My spell check tries to drop apostrophes all over the place - my proofreading a post before submitting often takes longer than composing - and still manages to ambush me on many ocassions.


_I hate this phone..._

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## buffnut453 (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> My spell check tries to drop apostrophes all over the place - my proofreading a post before submitting often takes longer than composing - and still manages to ambush me on many ocassions.
> 
> 
> _I hate this phone..._



I gave up using spool chock because it wasn’t very affectionate.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And yet still NATO won't release Abrams or Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Spain has a warehouse full of Leopard 2 tanks that they would send if the Germans would support the move with spare parts. Canada would likely send its Leopard 2 tanks as well, if nudged by the USA and supported by Germany with spares. If you're used to T-72s, a modern MBT does take some learning, but this isn't akin to an Su-25 driver moving to an F-16. If the UAF can figure out HIMARS, they can sort out a Leopard 2 PDQ.
> 
> What the heck are the Germans waiting for? If they want to keep their own Leopard 2 tanks, fine, but don't block the Spanish and others from sending theirs. What's Germany up to?
> 
> ...



My understanding is that the Spanish Leopards are in such disrepair that they're essentially useless.

As for why Germany is dragging its heels on most arms shipments, I asked that question on another forum I attend in their Ukraine thread. One of our German members there was pretty caustic in his dismissal of Scholz as lacking the spine or gumption to take more action.

However, it should be noted that I've read reports that one reason the Russian air force did so little to stop Ukraine's recent offensive was the worry about the 16 Gepards which the Ukrainians deployed to provide point defense for its offensive columns. If true, that would represent a significant contribution in operational terms if not sheer numbers.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'll now go back to my other hobby....databasing instances of apostrophe misuse on the internet. It's a job for life!



Oh, have you given up on solving the three-body _they're/there/their_ problem?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

I assume the UAF won’t use this for anything beyond ARV.

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Poland is receiving 116 US M1A1 Abrams, with deliveries starting last July.
> 
> This is to replace the 200 or so T-72s they sent to Ukraine.


The M1A1s are also part of the training for the M1A2s that are coming


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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Zelenskyy says mass graves of 'tortured people' in Ukraine proof of war crimes


Hundreds of bodies found at a mass burial site in territory recaptured days ago from Russians in north-eastern Ukraine are believed to be those of civilians, Ukrainian authorities say.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

The Russians have been driven out of Izium. Take a look at the destruction left behind


The Ukrainian town of Izium may be freed from Russian occupation, but it still carries the scars of war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Strategy experts warn the West to be prepared for the potential collapse of Russia

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Close call:









Zelenskyy suffers no ‘serious injuries’ after car crashes into his motorcade


The Ukrainian president was returning from Izyum, a key city recaptured during the counteroffensive.




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Ukraine’s military recruits need training. Only one of Europe’s giants is pulling its weight


The UK is training thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, while France helps just a handful.




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Putin admits China has ‘questions’ and ‘concerns’ about Ukraine war


China makes no reference to Ukraine in its statement after a Putin-Xi meeting.




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Germany to send 50 armored vehicles to Ukraine after pressure to step up support


The announcement by Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is yet another volte-face on military aid for Ukraine amid US criticism.




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

India’s Modi tells Putin: This is ‘not the era for war’


It’s the second setback for Moscow, a day after Putin admitted China’s Xi has ‘questions’ over his Ukraine war.




 www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Kremlin denies rumor of assassination attempt on Putin


Moscow responds to claims that first circulated on an anonymous Telegram channel.




www.politico.eu

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Strategy experts warn the West to be prepared for the potential collapse of Russia



The link I posted above from Anne Applebaum makes the same points -- Putin's regime can't survive a defeat here, and may not be able to survive a victory, either, in my opinion. And with no clear succession process constitutionally, we may well see a power-struggle that goes for a few years before the dust settles and a new autocrat secures his hold on power in Russia.

Putin has staked his regime upon success in Ukraine, and now the enormity of that gamble may bite him in the ass.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I assume the UAF won’t use this for anything beyond ARV.



For sale:
Vintage T-62 Soviet style main battle tank. Some minor cosmetic flaws. Runs good. Best offer. Serious enquiries only

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

It's a shame, what's happened to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

For a time, with it's democratic reforms and capitalism-based economy, it was really doing well. Then Putin got in there and really effed things up.


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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> For a time, with it's democratic reforms and capitalism-based economy, it was really doing well. Then Putin got in there and really effed things up.


To be honest, I think the ground was made fertile by Yeltsin...

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Ukraine has scored ‘a major breakthrough’ but the war in Europe is far from over, experts say


Ukraine’s recent wins have put Russian President Vladimir Putin in a perilous position, with Russian political experts saying he's copping criticism from all quarters. But is it enough to dethrone him?




www.sbs.com.au

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Ukrainians doing all they can to speed up the advance:

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## Denniss (Sep 16, 2022)

Greece will send Ukraine 40 BMP 1 IFV and gets in exchange 40 Marder IFVs from german industrial sources


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's a shame, what's happened to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
> 
> For a time, with it's democratic reforms and capitalism-based economy, it was really doing well. Then Putin got in there and really effed things up.



The economic hardships between 1993 and 1999 made Putin's rise much more likely. Putin's domestic popularity at the beginning of his regime was based on the stability he established after those years of privation and uncertainty.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> India’s Modi tells Putin: This is ‘not the era for war’
> 
> 
> It’s the second setback for Moscow, a day after Putin admitted China’s Xi has ‘questions’ over his Ukraine war.
> ...


If I were India, with Russia demonstrably weakened and China aggressively expansionistic, I’d put my bets on Ukraine and the opportunity to make new friends, call up Washington for a commitment of support against China and announce that I was sending fifty Sukhoi Su-30MKI, all sixty-nine of my older MiG-29s (not the naval variant, MiG-29K), and three hundred T-72 Ajeya tanks to Ukraine.

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

How a US-inspired ‘thunder run', secret intelligence and a fake-out helped Ukraine smash Russian troops


Within just a few days, Ukraine has liberated as much territory as Russia had gained over the past few months. Whether Ukraine can capitalise on the momentum relies on several key factors, not least the ongoing support of the West.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> For sale:
> Vintage T-62 Soviet style main battle tank. Some minor cosmetic flaws. Runs good. Best offer. Serious enquiries only


They can be converted into useful BTRs.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 16, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Greece will send Ukraine 40 BMP 1 IFV and gets in exchange 40 Marder IFVs from german industrial sources


I saw that but how the hell did Greece got those BMPs?


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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I saw that but how the hell did Greece got those BMPs?


501 BMP-1s were ordered from Germany in 1993 - ex East German equipment.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukrainians doing all they can to speed up the advance:



Thank you, that made laugh.

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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Thank you, that made laugh.


You're welcome - I laughed too and had to share.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> 501 BMP-1s were ordered from Germany in 1993 - ex East German equipment.


Thanks! Nearly 30 years old from Germany, probably 35 y.o. or more from DDR. They have any worth left?


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## GTX (Sep 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Thanks! Nearly 30 years old from Germany, probably 35 y.o. or more from DDR. They have any worth left?


Limited but better than nothing.

More info:









BMP-1A1 Ost in Greek Service


The standard Greek infantry fighting vehicle is the BMP-1A1 Ost, former Ex-German BMP-1s which have gone through several modifications




tanks-encyclopedia.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

Just wanted to say that "former ex-German" is repetitive, not to mention redundant, verbiage.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> How a US-inspired ‘thunder run', secret intelligence and a fake-out helped Ukraine smash Russian troops
> 
> 
> Within just a few days, Ukraine has liberated as much territory as Russia had gained over the past few months. Whether Ukraine can capitalise on the momentum relies on several key factors, not least the ongoing support of the West.
> ...



The linked article states, "But the US has rebuffed a request to provide more HIMARS munitions. " That does not comport with the most recent tranche of aid, from 8 Sep, according to this article from Defense.gov:

_
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $675 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration's twentieth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package include:


Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Four 105mm Howitzers and 36,000 105mm artillery rounds;
Additional High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARM);
100 Armored High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWV);
1.5 million rounds of small arms ammunition; 
More than 5,000 anti-armor systems;
1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
Additional grenade launchers and small arms;
50 armored medical treatment vehicles;
Night vision devices and other field equipment.
_










$675 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine


The Department of Defense announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $675 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.



www.defense.gov

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Strategy experts warn the West to be prepared for the potential collapse of Russia


Hope the West don't repeat show after the USSR break if the RF collapse. And I think the Lt. General have reasons to be concerned.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Just wanted to say that "former ex-German" is repetitive, not to mention redundant, verbiage.


Grammar Nazi!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Thanks! Nearly 30 years old from Germany, probably 35 y.o. or more from DDR. They have any worth left?


They’re a fully enclosed infantry transport proof against rifle fire and shrapnel, armed with an integrated autoloading cannon. Beats walking.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> You're welcome - I laughed too and had to share.


I doubt you'll find any Russian troops in similar spirits.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 16, 2022)

For those that want to send a farewell message to the russian forces in a shell or in a AGM-88 HARM









Ukrainians Sold Message On HARM Anti-Radiation Missile For 10 Grand


A custom inscription on a U.S.-supplied AGM-88 anti-radiation missile was sold as a fundraising effort for Ukrainian forces.




www.thedrive.com





This is the web for that:






RevengeFor – Help Ukrainian soldiers punish Russia for everything


Russia deserves the revenge of the whole world. What's your reason for wishing to take revenge? Decades of occupation? Global artificial disasters?




revengefor.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 16, 2022)

This is an interesting update from Vlad-the-Mad himself:









Ukraine counter-offensive won't change Russia's plans – Putin


In his first public comments about Ukraine's recent successes, President Putin says he is in "no hurry".



www.bbc.com





I was particularly amused by his threat that, up until now, Russia has not deployed all its available forces to attack Ukraine. Thus far, apparently, Russia has only employed its "professional army." If what we've seen over the past 6 months is Russia's "professional army" then I shudder to think at the level of incompetence we may see if Russia unleashes all its conventional forces against Ukraine.

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## special ed (Sep 16, 2022)

It's my understanding the Russians had to abandon their vehicles because they are not equipped with back up lights. Therefore leaving only stolen cars and bicycles for retreat.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Grammar Nazi!



Grammatik macht frei!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Hope the West don't repeat show after the USSR break if the RF collapse. And I think the Lt. General have reasons to be concerned.



I have some thoughts on the matter, but to avoid falling afoul of politics, I'll just say that we in the West should have been more supportive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This is an interesting update from Vlad-the-Mad himself:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The Russians may not want to change their plans, but they may not really have much choice either. We've seen this already, after the failed assault on Kyiv, and it smells to high heaven of damage control.

Now 1st GTA is toast, and forces remaining in the area will face supply-shortages while they try to reconfigure the front. Meanwhile the Ukrainians may decide to shift the _schwerpunkt_ south in order to wrong-foot the Russians again.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

Now here's something to ponder.

I earlier suspected that all the "leaked" info about the planned southern offensive was a decoy and lo and behold, the eastern offensive appeared out of thin air and Ukraine forces blitzed the Russians.

But what if the southern offensive *is* the actual goal and the eastern offensive was the decoy?

There is considerably more strategic goals in the south (including Crimea, eventually) and the the Ukraine may be playing a shell game to keep the Russians off balance and prevent them from digging in.

In other words, they (the Ukraine military) go through the motions of building up in the south and tell everyone they're preparing for an offensive. The Russians shift manpower and equipment to the south in preparation.
Ukraine attacks in the east instead, routing the Russians. So the Russians are now shifting manpower and equipment to stop the eastern offensive.

Meanwhile, in the south, where the Ukraine was building up their forces, has been relatively quiet. Especially since all eyes have been on the offensive to the north.

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## drgondog (Sep 16, 2022)

Should it supply longer-range missiles to Kiev, US to become party to conflict — MFA


Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman warned that Russia reserved the right to defend its territory "by all available means"




tass.com





Why not pay attention?

I saw another article where Zelenski was petitioning yesterday for 'provisional' (whatever that means) acceptance into NATO while the formal application proceeds. There was a Very strong reaction from Russia regarding WWIII if NATO engages in support of Ukraine directly. Long Range missiles fit that 'red line'. When will Russia strike directly at Poland supply chain? This war has been treated as a 'proxy' war by mutual consent - so far. Why not take Russia at its word?

Will NATO declare war? (which EU countries immediately bail out of NATO. Ya think Italy and Germany and France and Turkey are 'all in'). Dod Chief of Staffs Milleyacknowledges that our inventory is dangerously low to conduct a One theatre conventional war.

Where are the leaders speaking out that this 'local war' as the potential to get totlaly out of control and speaking out about thoughts to control complete escalation?

"Prologue To Third World War": Kremlin Reacts To Security Guarantees For Ukraine | ZeroHedge

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> There is considerably more strategic goals in the south (including Crimea, eventually) and the the Ukraine may be playing a shell game to keep the Russians off balance and prevent them from digging in.



In a phrase, the Ukrainians are taking advantage of interior lines. They can shift the axis of advance faster than the Russians can shift defensive forces. But honestly, I think the Russians have accepted that they were defeated around Kharkiv. I don't think they're going to be sending troops from the south north again after the destruction of the northern front.

They have to hold Kherson in order to maintain their troops in SW Ukraine, as well as support the south flank of their Donbas forces. The Russian troops on the coast must already be feeling nervous about their position. I'd act to cut those troops off from their bridgehead myself, not by attacking Kherson itself, but by slicing to the coast and pocketing them.

Once Ukraine has secured its recaptured areas in the north it should be able to move troops into reserve/refit for this mission to the south.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Should it supply longer-range missiles to Kiev, US to become party to conflict — MFA
> 
> 
> Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman warned that Russia reserved the right to defend its territory "by all available means"
> ...


Russia has been threatening just about everyone for quite some time - remember the "dire consequences" if Finland joined NATO?

It's extremely unlikely that the Ukraine military would attack Russia proper. Doing so would vindicate Putin's accusations.
Their goal is to rid their nation of occupiers - nothing more. This has been stated time and again.

Putin has made it clear several times that he aims to "liberate" ethnic Russians in Estonia and Poland, too.
So if we become frightened at Putin's sabre rattling and toss Ukraine under the bus, then who's next and what would our frightened reaction be on that (those) occasions.

As it stands, Putin is nothing more than a schoolyard bully who has been appeased too many times. Each time, he has grown bolder - except this time, his intended victim turned around and kicked his ass and exposed the fact that his mighty first-world military is third-rate, at best.

As far as Russia's nuclear arsenal is concerned, what shape are the missiles in? Judging how their equipment has performed so poorly in combat, I imagine their nukes are in a comparable state of fitness.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 16, 2022)

NATO won't declare war. NATO can't declare war. NATO doesn't have to. There are rumblings in Russky Mir. The CSTO is fraying and is becoming irrelevant right in the heart of Russia's sphere of influence. Hello China. Hello Turkey. Putin is raising a prison army. Will they be trained or is Putler just making space in the prisons? This army will be equipped with arms and equipment from the Soviet era and that was retired *during* the Soviet era. Ammo from North Korea. This army will be transported to Ukraine? Armenia? Georgia? on a failing rail system. Sanctions are delaying repair of rolling stock. Russia and the Western nations have supplied better arms to Ukraine than Russia has left. Russian aviation doesn't do much aviating. Why would NATO even want to declare war at this point?
GrauGeist is right. Stand up to the bully. At this time it's posturing. I don't think (hope) he will be allowed the nukes.


Edit : Totally forgot about trucks. There aren't quite as many as there was a while ago.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> As far as Russia's nuclear arsenal is concerned, what shape are the missiles in? Judging how their equipment has performed so poorly in combat, I imagine their nukes are in a comparable state of fitness.



My son and I were taking about this last night. When's the last time they really got a good inspection?

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## SaparotRob (Sep 16, 2022)

If only 10 percent are functional, we're in for a bad time. Better if Putin has the same concerns about a possibly useless stockpile.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My son and I were taking about this last night. When's the last time they really got a good inspection?


You ask too many questions. Do you want to die from terminal gravity? I imagine the inspections got lost somewhere during the building of a few dachas and yachts.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If only 10 percent are functional, we're in for a bad time. Better if Putin has the same concerns about a possibly useless stockpile.


And those 10 percent have to make it through the wall of interceptors situated around North America, the Atlantic and Pacific.
The defense system is both ground based and ship based.

Matter of fact, there are two USN ships stationed in Europe (one in the Med and one in the Baltic) currently, whose functions include intercepting any nukes Russia might use on European targets, with their Aegis system.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 16, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Why not pay attention?


So, what do you suggest? Pull a Munich and push Ukraine to accept a Peace in Our Time settlement with Russia? This would only give Putin time to regroup and rearm, leading to a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine in at the latest 2025. 

Here‘s how this must end. This is Ukraine below. When Russia has exited all Ukrainian territory and all territory has fully been returned to Kiyv’s control. Only then will the West stand down… and by then Ukraine will have the most combat experienced and successful army in Europe. Again, what’s the alternative that does embolden Putin to try again?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Why not pay attention?
> 
> Why not take Russia at its word?



Because Russia’s word is worthless. They signed an internationally-binding agreement to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Did they keep their word?

Putin is a petulant child-bully who wants his own way ALL the time. Whenever any nation pushes back against Putins ‘druthers, he threatens “dire consequences.” This time, his bluff has been called….and shown for what it is.

Now, I agree we don’t want Ukraine attacking Mother Russia directly. That would be stupid and escalatory, and would play right into Putin’s hands.

However, the world has been listening to Putin. We’ve heard his rants and tantrums. Backing down now would be disastrous and prove, once and for all, that the west has no spine and can’t be trusted. It’s a tough balancing act, for sure, but it’s one we need to keep walking, IMHO.

As others have noted, you’ve made a lot of complaints about the path the west is pursuing but you’ve not offered any alternatives for how to proceed. I’d really like to hear your ideas on that front.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 17, 2022)

Putin is a maffia boss since his st Peterburg days. After the mayor (also maffia ) he served got defeated he got a small job at the Kremlin as rose with in a year (!) to most senior intelligence officer. I think it will be a mistake to see him as a schoolyard bully. He is in all his doings a mob boss, the capo di tutti i capi. But that has advantages. He has to take in account the others bosses. They will have no profit from nuclear destruction.

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## drgondog (Sep 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Because Russia’s word is worthless. They signed an internationally-binding agreement to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Did they keep their word?
> 
> Putin is a petulant child-bully who wants his own way ALL the time. Whenever any nation pushes back against Putins ‘druthers, he threatens “dire consequences.” This time, his bluff has been called….and shown for what it is.
> 
> ...


I have not disagreed with ANY characterization about Putin, nor supported in any way his invasion of Ukraine, nor have any negative feelings regarding the destruction of Russia's tactical capabilities.

ALL my life of 77 years I have lived in a Geo political atmosphere of MADD, mostly as a dependent of a warrior at the tip of the spear. From my perspective we (US) have shed blood on every continent, only to be reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella. That comment specifically does NOT include UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Poland and South Korea. We are reviled by EU leadership (separate from NATA leadership), most of the UN and every nation that we crushed in the War Against Terror and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" bogeyman.

(One political comment here is now inserted "Except for the Release of Covid-19" which was the greatest Ever destroyer of free economy and prosperity across the globe for a non-kinetic weapon. China has not been held accountable by Any Nationstate.)

I took note of Eisenhower in my formative years of "Beware the Military-Industrial Complex" and noted during my airframe career that there are Zero CEOs in that industry (military weapon systems) that hated ANY war or conflict that we (US) jumped into with religious and rightous zeal. Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of dollars spent to camp in hundreds of bases worldwide, paying our share and a chunk of NATO countries shares - while their leaders quietly reduce their contributions and shift to infrastrucure, and programs often beneficial to their People. 

This particular flash point was instigated over a long time but rapidly escalated when Russia lost political influence and control over Ukraine several years ago. Despite Putin's lack of credibility regarding truth in speech and actions - I FIRMLY believe that 'enemies' on the Border is and will be for aVery long time a genetic code in Russians and descendents of WWII.

Independent of the facts of the matter regarding US funding Bio labs in Ukraine (I believe based on Victora Nuland's antics on behalf of US relative to Ukraine), the US Administration worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia politically - successully. 








Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call


A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.



www.bbc.com





When Georgia made noises about NATO, Putin/Russia reacted as we should have EXPECTED and left Georgia to twist in the wind beause some sane individuals with a voice understood the paranoid Russia mind about border countries allied against them.

Bringing us to Ukraine. The core of Ukraine/Russia is "You are either with me (on the border) or against me (on my border).

We (the US) completely failed to remember this important factoid about post WWII history in the Iron Curtain stateswhen anti-USSR factions began to rise. Putin was and is in that historical mindset. The concept of RECEPTIVITY to Ukraine petitioning for NATO club was NEVER acceptable to Russia (NOT just Putin). The concept of an 'Alliance against Russian Aggression until NATO accepts Ukraine is tantamount to a declaration of organized hostile intent by ALL members of NATO.

One of the other seeds of this debacle is the dependency on natural gas from Russia. One of our President's recognized the threat to NATO/EU of Russian stranglehold on the economic balls of our Euro allies and negotiated sanity of seeking alternate sources from NORD. Another did not and cancelled that agreement, enabling Putin once again to firmly grasp Germany's nuts - for which they are paying dearly, economically and politically.

One of the treats to Russia was a rogue Ukraine government that could shut that pipeline down.

Summary - Ukraine a direct threat, as well as existential threat by proxy if admitted to NATO. They could threaten cuts the pipeline, with big stupid brother holding baeball bat while the brat sticks his tongue out.

So, The opportunity to shut down the adventure was lost - if ever possible given the above circumstances. Putin calculated that he could exercise the same strategy he executed against Georgia, but for some reason he miscalculted Ukraine initial resistance as well as NATO desire to attrit Russia militariliy by shipping %Trillion of latest toys and expecting sanctions to bring Russia to the table with tail tucked between legs. 

So, Buffnut - what do I Believe should be the highest priority?
1. Take NATO acceptance off the table and make it clear to Zelensky that we are NOT going (intentionally) to full blown war on Ukraine behalf. BTW we may get there anyway because not very many Western leaders are dealing with a full deck.
2. Engage China, Turkey and France to meet with Russia (not just Putin) to fully understand the hard red lines outside of NATO membership. I say engage China and France and Turkey- but not US, because I truly believe we have fucked this up beyond repair across at least four Presidents.
3. Under ZERO circumstances support any cross border activity from NATO military into Ukraine.
4. Be prepared with a de-escalation plan when Russia shuts down the grid and attacks all inbound shipments from NATO countries.
4. Make it clear to Russia that not only will we continue to arm Ukraine until a settlement is obtained, but also make it clear to Ukraine that they cannot use NATO as a negotiating lever to blugeon Russia.

Points
1. Ukraine has made it abundantly clear that outright military victory is pretty near impossible - either wih acceptable losses, or with expectations that Russia will never control Ukraine, similar to Afghanistan.
2. Putin, IMO is struggling between rational and insanity. He has never been confronted with total failure. I feel that emotions (all sides) are the greatest risk to existing in a global winter down the road. We ALL expect rational decisions by Putin. I say bullshit - don't assume.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 17, 2022)

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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## buffnut453 (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> I have not disagreed with ANY characterization about Putin, nor supported in any way his invasion of Ukraine, nor have any negative feelings regarding the destruction of Russia's tactical capabilities.



Ok...hell of a lot to unpack in that post. Please note, however, that I never said you were a Putin fan, nor did I infer or imply that you thought the Russian invasion was acceptable. 




drgondog said:


> ALL my life of 77 years I have lived in a Geo political atmosphere of MADD, mostly as a dependent of a warrior at the tip of the spear. From my perspective we (US) have shed blood on every continent, only to be reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella. That comment specifically does NOT include UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Poland and South Korea. We are reviled by EU leadership (separate from NATA leadership), most of the UN and every nation that we crushed in the War Against Terror and "Weapons of Mass Destruction" bogeyman.



Having been a warrior at the tip of the spear (ok, not quite the tip), for 20 years, plus working within, or directly in support the militaries of two western nations, I may offer a subtly different perspective. First, however, I want to pull the thread on the "reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella" and "we (US) have shed blood on every continent." You make it sound like the US does this on its own. Yes, the US is the 600lb gorilla on the stage but I find it frustrating when we entirely ignore the contribution of our Allies that help us (the US) achieve our political and military objectives. The Brits, Aussies and Canuks have shed blood on every continent. Many European nations contributed forces to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

It's all to easy for America to expect everyone to do its bidding but I'm afraid that's never going to happen. Countries have differences of opinion about global issues. Even the Brits aren't in lock-step with America on everything. Just because they disagree, however, doesn't mean they're the enemy or that they revile the US. Having lived in Europe for 3 years, there is certainly a love-hate relationship between host nations and US forces, particularly in Germany. However, in general, the relationship is more positive than negative. There are some who protest outside our bases. Equally, there are some who will buy you a beer just because you're helping defend Europe.




drgondog said:


> I took note of Eisenhower in my formative years of "Beware the Military-Industrial Complex" and noted during my airframe career that there are Zero CEOs in that industry (military weapon systems) that hated ANY war or conflict that we (US) jumped into with religious and rightous zeal. Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of dollars spent to camp in hundreds of bases worldwide, paying our share and a chunk of NATO countries shares - while their leaders quietly reduce their contributions and shift to infrastrucure, and programs often beneficial to their People.



Again, you're taking a very binary view. The so-called "peace dividend" at the end of the Cold War resulted in EVERY western nation reducing its defence budgets, INCLUDING the US. The analogy of "paying a share" to NATO is not accurate since the requirement is to expend a proportion of GDP on defence, not on paying money to NATO. The US forces in Europe have been drastically cut compared to the Cold War. For the past few decades, US forces have concentrated on GWOT and activities in the CENTCOM AOR. Therefore it's a bit strong to say America has been "paying for" other NATO member's contributions because, frankly, US forces in CENTCOM do NOTHING for NATO security. 




drgondog said:


> Independent of the facts of the matter regarding US funding Bio labs in Ukraine (I believe based on Victora Nuland's antics on behalf of US relative to Ukraine), the US Administration worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia politically - successully.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Please, PLEASE don't go down the "US-funded bio labs route." The only thing that's happening there is pretty standard medical research. Having seen how xenophobic the US military can be, even with our strongest Allies, there is no way--I repeat NO WAY--the US is going to offshore any critical defence research, whether that's chem, bio, or anything else. 

As for Nuland et al, that recording says nothing except that the US had desires for the future of Ukrainian democratic leadership. EVERY country has these types of conversations because they're trying to figure out how to engage with that country after a democratic election. If the US was the puppet-master in Ukraine, how is it that Zelensky doesn't even get a mention in these recordings? 

Yes, the US worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia. So did the UK and other European Allies because all wanted to see the totalitarian Moscow-puppet in Kyiv replaced by a more democratic and less corrupt form of government. That was always going to upset Moscow....but that's what happens when you push freedom and democracy as an agenda. 




drgondog said:


> Bringing us to Ukraine. The core of Ukraine/Russia is "You are either with me (on the border) or against me (on my border).
> 
> We (the US) completely failed to remember this important factoid about post WWII history in the Iron Curtain stateswhen anti-USSR factions began to rise. Putin was and is in that historical mindset. The concept of RECEPTIVITY to Ukraine petitioning for NATO club was NEVER acceptable to Russia (NOT just Putin). The concept of an 'Alliance against Russian Aggression until NATO accepts Ukraine is tantamount to a declaration of organized hostile intent by ALL members of NATO.



Yes, Ukraine joining NATO was arguably a red line for Moscow. However, it highlights the illogic of Putin's actions. By invading Ukraine, Putin simply brought Russian forces CLOSER to NATO. Oh...and he persuaded Finland and Sweden to join. Again, Putin is a dictator who wants the entire world to do his bidding, and so he throws temper tantrums when anyone disagrees with him. I'm afraid that's life when democratic nations have their own ideas about how the world should operate (and that's far more than just the US). 





drgondog said:


> One of the other seeds of this debacle is the dependency on natural gas from Russia. One of our President's recognized the threat to NATO/EU of Russian stranglehold on the economic balls of our Euro allies and negotiated sanity of seeking alternate sources from NORD. Another did not and cancelled that agreement, enabling Putin once again to firmly grasp Germany's nuts - for which they are paying dearly, economically and politically.
> 
> One of the treats to Russia was a rogue Ukraine government that could shut that pipeline down.
> 
> Summary - Ukraine a direct threat, as well as existential threat by proxy if admitted to NATO. They could threaten cuts the pipeline, with big stupid brother holding baeball bat while the brat sticks his tongue out.



I entirely agree about Europe's over-dependency on Russian fuel. I've been saying it for years. I just never thought Putin was stupid enough to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs for his economy. Just shows how wrong I can be.

Yes, Ukraine could have shut down the pipelines. However...NEWSFLASH. So could Poland. So could Germany. Having a corrupt, autocratic government in Kyiv is far worse than having a democratically-elected one. 


That's enough for now. I'll be back later to dig into the actual answer to my question about what the west should do about the Russia/Ukraine situation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

_SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 16 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Friday brushed off a lightning Ukrainian counter-offensive with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure.

[...]

"The Kiev authorities announced that they have launched and are conducting an active counter-offensive operation. Well, let's see how it develops, how it ends up," Putin said with a grin.

[...]

"Recently, the Russian armed forces have inflicted a couple of sensitive blows. Let's assume they're a warning. If the situation continues to develop like this, then the response will be more serious," he said._









With a grin, Putin warns Ukraine: the war can get more serious


President Vladimir Putin on Friday brushed off a lightning Ukrainian counter-offensive with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure.




www.reuters.com





He's essentially threatening more civilian reprisals to punish the Ukrainians for beating his army. Where's a nice intracranial blastoma when you need it?

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## GrauGeist (Sep 17, 2022)

Let's spin the way-back wheel to April 25th of this year and see what the Russians had to say about things:









Russia warns United States against sending more arms to Ukraine


Russia told the United States to stop sending more arms to Ukraine, warning that large Western deliveries of weapons were inflaming the conflict and would lead to more losses, Moscow's ambassador to Washington said.




www.reuters.com





Oh, it's the same "blah blah blah" about how their attacking a sovereign nation should not be interfered with and that they are the victim in all of this...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok...hell of a lot to unpack in that post. Please note, however, that I never said you were a Putin fan, nor did I infer or imply that you thought the Russian invasion was acceptable.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Please stop making sense and thinking critically.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 16 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Friday brushed off a lightning Ukrainian counter-offensive with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure.
> 
> [...]
> 
> ...



Like a typical school yard bully.

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## Dimlee (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Despite Putin's lack of credibility regarding truth in speech and actions - I FIRMLY believe that 'enemies' on the Border is and will be for aVery long time a genetic code in Russians and descendents of WWII.


There is nothing like that in the *genetic code* of the citizens of the Russian Federation - the former RSFSR, the republic that had a very small part of its territory occupied and whose civilians suffered much less than those in the other two Soviet republics (nowadays - Belarus and Ukraine) and other countries: Poland, Yugoslavia, China...
Indoctrination is a problem and a source of trouble, not genetics. Shut down the propaganda machine, and in a couple of years, "code" will be clean again. As it was before Putin's gang came into power.

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## Dimlee (Sep 17, 2022)

Negotiations continue - but quietly.








Negotiations on whether to send F-16s and Patriots to Ukraine continue — but quietly


Ukraine has stopped asking for high-tech weapons in public. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want them.




www.politico.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 17, 2022)

There is a YouTube video from the AlternateHistoryHub. It is entitled "Did Nato Really "Betray" Russia?" It came out in March so it might be dated. It discusses, in a lighthearted way, NATO expansion. It covers some of the topics raised. I would love to link it but, you know. I would enjoy feedback on it since there is a lot of real knowledge and insight from the Forum members here. Some of you guys might also get a kick out of it.

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## swampyankee (Sep 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There is a YouTube video from the AlternateHistoryHub. It is entitled "Did Nato Really "Betray" Russia?" It came out in March so it might be dated. It discusses, in a lighthearted way, NATO expansion. It covers some of the topics raised. I would love to link it but, you know. I would enjoy feedback on it since there is a lot of real knowledge and insight from the Forum members here. Some of you guys might also get a kick out of it.


The basic concept of NATO "betraying" Russia is nonsensical, as NATO does not have nor did it ever have a position of loyalty or fealty to Russia. It may have been seen as a threat to Russia, but neither Russia nor the USSR have a history of playing nice with neighbors.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 17, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> The basic concept of NATO "betraying" Russia is nonsensical, as NATO does not have nor did it ever have a position of loyalty or fealty to Russia. It may have been seen as a threat to Russia, but neither Russia nor the USSR have a history of playing nice with neighbors.


..and that’s what the video states.
He agrees with you.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> ..and that’s what the video states.


This post is an “oopsie”.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 17, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Sep 17, 2022)

Anyone else seen Lazer Pig’s video on what sank Moskva? 
Yes, it includes Neptune missiles.

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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Anyone else seen Lazer Pig’s video on what sank Moskva?
> Yes, it includes Neptune missiles.


An alternate view :






A

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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)

Just a photo:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> There is nothing like that in the *genetic code* of the citizens of the Russian Federation - the former RSFSR, the republic that had a very small part of its territory occupied and whose civilians suffered much less than those in the other two Soviet republics (nowadays - Belarus and Ukraine) and other countries: Poland, Yugoslavia, China...
> Indoctrination is a problem and a source of trouble, not genetics. Shut down the propaganda machine, and in a couple of years, "code" will be clean again. As it was before Putin's gang came into power.



Indoctrination and propaganda seems to be common theme everywhere my friend. It’s not limited to Russia.

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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Let's spin the way-back wheel to April 25th of this year and see what the Russians had to say about things:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How many unfulfilled threats will be made before folks shrug their shoulders and go "Yeah, riiiight"? Mind you, that number's already been surpassed for my money.

I liked Biden's statement yesterday warning against escalation to WMDs.


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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)

Ukraine and UNICEF trying to trace 26,000 'orphans' scattered by war


Ukraine says it dismissed nearly 100,000 children from institutional care. With help from United Nations' child agency UNICEF, it is still trying to reach some 26,000 of them.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 17, 2022)

'The war is winnable': Ukrainians hopeful victory is in sight


Ukrainians are hopeful for victory after a week of massive territorial gains. Many are planning to return home, reconnect with loved ones liberated from occupation, and are setting their sights on the future.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'The war is winnable': Ukrainians hopeful victory is in sight
> 
> 
> Ukrainians are hopeful for victory after a week of massive territorial gains. Many are planning to return home, reconnect with loved ones liberated from occupation, and are setting their sights on the future.
> ...



I've said for a long time that this war is winnable for Ukraine. This offensive has shown that, as well; it has shown that the Ukrainian Army can dish it out as well as take it.

I don't, however, think it means the war will end any time soon. I think the best result from this Russian defeat is that Ukraine will be able to survive the winter solidly and hopefully launch a spring offensive to split the remaining Russian forces with a drive to the southern coast. Even then the Russians will have time to regroup and retrain over the winter, if this pans out.

Even after that, destroying the pockets will take time and blood -- and that's only if that hypothetical offensive is successful.

This war will continue, sadly, for quite some time, barring a major disaster on either side.

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## Dimlee (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Indoctrination and propaganda seems to be common theme everywhere my friend. It’s not limited to Russia.


Of course, they are.
I do not discuss indoctrination in general, but I comment on just one very specific statement.


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## Dimlee (Sep 17, 2022)

NATO troops are in Ukraine. Once again. 
(Subtitles in English).

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## Dimlee (Sep 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've said for a long time that this war is winnable for Ukraine. This offensive has shown that, as well; it has shown that the Ukrainian Army can dish it out as well as take it.
> 
> I don't, however, think it means the war will end any time soon. I think the best result from this Russian defeat is that Ukraine will be able to survive the winter solidly and hopefully launch a spring offensive to split the remaining Russian forces with a drive to the southern coast. Even then the Russians will have time to regroup and retrain over the winter, if this pans out.
> 
> ...


About winter... 
Some of the major battles in the early phase of this war (which began in 2014), took place during the winter of 2014-2015.








Second Battle of Donetsk Airport - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












Battle of Debaltseve - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




Last winter was not very quiet either.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> About winter...
> Some of the major battles in the early phase of this war (which began in 2014), took place during the winter of 2014-2015.
> 
> 
> ...



It wasn't good for this last year's offensive, though. It was mild and there was still much mud, one thing that hampered the Russian drive on Kyiv, for example.

If there's a hard freeze lasting some time, sure, decent running. But I'm not sure how well military plans play with dicey weather forecasts.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Of course, they are.
> I do not discuss indoctrination in general, but I comment on just one very specific statement.



I understand, I was just pointing out that it is a problem everywhere. It has especially gotten bad here in the US over the last decade for example.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

GTX said:


>




No surprise with any of these votes except South Africa. South Africa is starting to piss me off.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've said for a long time that this war is winnable for Ukraine. This offensive has shown that, as well; it has shown that the Ukrainian Army can dish it out as well as take it.
> 
> I don't, however, think it means the war will end any time soon. I think the best result from this Russian defeat is that Ukraine will be able to survive the winter solidly and hopefully launch a spring offensive to split the remaining Russian forces with a drive to the southern coast. Even then the Russians will have time to regroup and retrain over the winter, if this pans out.
> 
> ...



Ukraine is in the best position. All they have to do is outlast Russia, and they are well on their way to doing that.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 17, 2022)

I don't know about that, Eagle. Russia has a lot prisons.

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## drgondog (Sep 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok...hell of a lot to unpack in that post. Please note, however, that I never said you were a Putin fan, nor did I infer or imply that you thought the Russian invasion was acceptable.


If not you, others deeply suspicious of my insights


buffnut453 said:


> Having been a warrior at the tip of the spear (ok, not quite the tip), for 20 years, plus working within, or directly in support the militaries of two western nations, I may offer a subtly different perspective. First, however, I want to pull the thread on the "reviled by everyone that doesn't depend on our security umbrella" and "we (US) have shed blood on every continent." You make it sound like the US does this on its own. Yes, the US is the 600lb gorilla on the stage but I find it frustrating when we entirely ignore the contribution of our Allies that help us (the US) achieve our political and military objectives. The Brits, Aussies and Canuks have shed blood on every continent. Many European nations contributed forces to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.


Of course we (US) did not camp around the world on our own. I was careful to cite Commonwealth s partners in our adventures. Given that, when has UK/Commonwealth planted he flag and invited the US to join rather than vice versa?


buffnut453 said:


> It's all to easy for America to expect everyone to do its bidding but I'm afraid that's never going to happen. Countries have differences of opinion about global issues. Even the Brits aren't in lock-step with America on everything. Just because they disagree, however, doesn't mean they're the enemy or that they revile the US. Having lived in Europe for 3 years, there is certainly a love-hate relationship between host nations and US forces, particularly in Germany.  However, in general, the relationship is more positive than negative. There are some who protest outside our bases. Equally, there are some who will buy you a beer just because you're helping defend Europe.


I'm in the opposite camp. I am continulally amazed that our faithful allies follow us in adventure after adventure in which no discernable and tangible national interest is served. I travelled extensively in Europe the old fashioned way - on a Norton Commando for two summers at 17 and 18. Originated at Lakenheath and returned there. Dad's generation were the warmest and most generous I ever met - even in France, but to a significant extent, to my generation, we (America) were bullies, hateful and 'fascist' based upon the lens of VietNam and our other arrogant based adventures in which we imposed our will vs USSR adventures on the geo-political stage.

I came away from those trips with a conviction that We Should Be Phyically present in Europe. We Shoud not be a Trip Wire in South Korea. We should not be involved in threats other than against US. I DO recognize that NATO alliance was a major factor stopping USSR adventures into Europe and have no problem with NATO.



buffnut453 said:


> Again, you're taking a very binary view. The so-called "peace dividend" at the end of the Cold War resulted in EVERY western nation reducing its defence budgets, INCLUDING the US. The analogy of "paying a share" to NATO is not accurate since the requirement is to expend a proportion of GDP on defence, not on paying money to NATO. The US forces in Europe have been drastically cut compared to the Cold War. For the past few decades, US forces have concentrated on GWOT and activities in the CENTCOM AOR. Therefore it's a bit strong to say America has been "paying for" other NATO member's contributions because, frankly, US forces in CENTCOM do NOTHING for NATO security.


Agreed - to a point. I am reminded however of Trump directly and accurately confronting various NATO allies that they in fact were NOT committing their agreed % of GDP. 

CENTCOM and EVERY US theatre command contribute to NATO security, simply as a major mobile reserve to any self decreed 'hotspot'.


buffnut453 said:


> Please, PLEASE don't go down the "US-funded bio labs route." The only thing that's happening there is pretty standard medical research. Having seen how xenophobic the US military can be, even with our strongest Allies, there is no way--I repeat NO WAY--the US is going to offshore any critical defence research, whether that's chem, bio, or anything else.


Neither You, nor I have ANY insight and or tangible proof regarding what we 'will or won't' do directly or via proxy. It is an established fact that Gates and Soros and CDC/NIH were partcipants in Wuhan Lab dating at least back to 2007. Prove me wrong about Proxy labs and then address what I recall as Nuland's acknowledgement that we were 'operating labs' without specificity. 


buffnut453 said:


> As for Nuland et al, that recording says nothing except that the US had desires for the future of Ukrainian democratic leadership. EVERY country has these types of conversations because they're trying to figure out how to engage with that country after a democratic election. If the US was the puppet-master in Ukraine, how is it that Zelensky doesn't even get a mention in these recordings?


Don't know, don't care. But recall that the conversatons were circa 2014 during Obama admin and before Zelensky was a factor.


buffnut453 said:


> Yes, the US worked tirelessly to separate Ukraine from Russia. So did the UK and other European Allies because all wanted to see the totalitarian Moscow-puppet in Kyiv replaced by a more democratic and less corrupt form of government. That was always going to upset Moscow....but that's what happens when you push freedom and democracy as an agenda.


To listen to the cynical hawk 'familiar' on my shoulder, we wished to replace "the guy they controlled with the guy we controlled". Out of curiousity what is your metric on 'more corrupt' vs 'less corrupt'. If comparing Ukraine pre Zelensky vs Zelensky what do you propose as quantitatie metrics?

BTW I am not taking a shot at Ukraine as I consider them neophytes to our Congress.



buffnut453 said:


> Yes, Ukraine joining NATO was arguably a red line for Moscow. However, it highlights the illogic of Putin's actions. By invading Ukraine, Putin simply brought Russian forces CLOSER to NATO. Oh...and he persuaded Finland and Sweden to join. Again, Putin is a dictator who wants the entire world to do his bidding, and so he throws temper tantrums when anyone disagrees with him. I'm afraid that's life when democratic nations have their own ideas about how the world should operate (and that's far more than just the US).



How does that illustrate Illogic if his vision of Russia Controlled Ukraine is different pre-Zelensky, from his vision of Russia controlled post Zelensky?
He has not been 'vague' about intentions regarding Ukraine for last several years. Democratic, Republic, Marxist nstitutions have one thing in common - The People wish freedom to determine their path and a Rule of Law that they understand.

Seperate Putin from the equation - he plays to the RUSSIAN phobia about foe on border. You are looking at a spokesperson leader that understands his People - it doesn't matter how we view him.



buffnut453 said:


> I entirely agree about Europe's over-dependency on Russian fuel. I've been saying it for years. I just never thought Putin was stupid enough to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs for his economy. Just shows how wrong I can be.


He laid the eggs, built his stash, plotted the steps necessary to cripple the dollar, expand the Russia sphere of influence and hurt the NATO/US alliance. He didn't invite you (or me) to his thought processes. 


buffnut453 said:


> Yes, Ukraine could have shut down the pipelines. However...NEWSFLASH. So could Poland. So could Germany. Having a corrupt, autocratic government in Kyiv is far worse than having a democratically-elected one.


Yep - but what is the National interest for Poland? Trump convinced Germany of the danger, Germany took steps to wean and Biden Administration killed the Trump initiatives. Lets be clear - I admire Ukrainian People but don't make Zelensky out to be a People's Rights kinda democrat/republic leader. He is a despot also in this crisis.


buffnut453 said:


> That's enough for now. I'll be back later to dig into the actual answer to my question about what the west should do about the Russia/Ukraine situation.


Looking forward to an exchange


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 17, 2022)

Looks like Ukraine won’t be getting ATACMS and other greater offensive capability from the US anytime soon.

Ukraine Wants the U.S. to Send More Powerful Weapons. Biden Is Not So Sure.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> If not you, others deeply suspicious of my insights



I don’t think anyone here thinks that, but if they do maybe its because of your choice of sources. Sources known to be Russian propaganda mouth pieces such as zerohedge. Hell you’d think good ole Tucker Carlson is on their board. 

But no, I doubt any is actually suspicious.



drgondog said:


> Agreed - to a point. I am reminded however of *Trump* directly and accurately confronting various NATO allies that they in fact were NOT committing their agreed % of GDP.



Except maybe you should listen a lil less to the guy in bold. Because he was spewing only half truths knowing damn well his followers won’t actually fact check anything.

No NATO countries were actually non-compliant. They had until 2024 to reach their agreed up % of GDP.

*Now can we please get off the political crap. We are getting dangerously close to ruining this thread, and many of us are getting tired of it.

The forced closing of the thread is already a topic in the Admin thread. Lets not let a few ruin it for everyone.*

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## drgondog (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ukraine is in the best position. All they have to do is outlast Russia, and they are well on their way to doing that.


Chris - help me understand your view of a Ukraine 'win' - or conversely a Russian 'win'. I am distinclty unclear on the concepts at the moment.

As long as you are contemplating this, what is the US win? Help me by defining a US win as value add to the American People?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Chris - help me understand your view of a Ukraine 'win' - or conversely a Russian 'win'. I am distinclty unclear on the concepts at the moment.
> 
> As long as you are contemplating this, what is the US win? Help me by defining a US win as value add to the American People?



The Ukrainians win when Russia is forced to end this war and leave Ukrainian lands.

A win for the US? This is not about the US winning. However, Vladolf Putler and Russian aggression being stopped here and now is in our best interest.

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## drgondog (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Ukrainians win when Russia is forced to end this war and leave Ukrainian lands.
> 
> A win for the US? This is not about the US winning. However, Vladolf Putler and Russian aggression being stopped here and now is in our best interest.


Chris - we may expend $trillion, draw down our readiness inventory to fight One conventional win, suffer the inflation that comes with unconstrained spending that requires the Fed to print money. Explain to our (US/American People in the steets/ the 'win'? or conversely 'why it doesn't matter'?


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Chris - help me understand your view of a Ukraine 'win'
> 
> 
> drgondog said:
> ...


If all you want to do is talk to Chris, can you take this demonstrably-private convo to DMs? 

I keep skipping past to see what the group is posting about the Russo-Ukraine war.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Of course we (US) did not camp around the world on our own. I was careful to cite Commonwealth s partners in our adventures. Given that, when has UK/Commonwealth planted he flag and invited the US to join rather than vice versa?



Well, let's see...there was Suez in the 1950s when Britain asked America to join but the US did everything in its power to scupper the entire operation.

There have also been plenty of operations where the US didn't want Allies along for the ride. The UK and Germany contributed aircraft to Op PROVIDE RELIEF but were explicitly excluded from joining the US HQ because the US didn't want those countries getting insights into what was happening with the parallel Op RESTORE HOPE. I know because I was there. I was supposed to be part of a small Brit team joining the US HQ in Mogadishu but the US commander refused to bring us in.

Simple fact is that, apart from the Falklands, the European powers haven't felt a need to throw their military weight around. However, they all came to America's support after 9/11, despite much of that support waning given the propensity for escalation and poor exit-strategy planning (e.g. invasion of Iraq).

I would also note that France (of all people) has done yeoman counter-terrorism work in Africa, and the Brits have dabbled there, too. Given that the US doesn't actually have assigned forces, other than SF, dedicated to USAFRICOM, I think it's significant that at least a couple of European Allies have led their own military ops in that theatre...and yet it doesn't get recognized.




drgondog said:


> Agreed - to a point. I am reminded however of Trump directly and accurately confronting various NATO allies that they in fact were NOT committing their agreed % of GDP.
> 
> CENTCOM and EVERY US theatre command contribute to NATO security, simply as a major mobile reserve to any self decreed 'hotspot'.



Well, it helps to read the actual text of the NATO agreement about GDP %. It actually says, paraphrasing a little, "members shall strive to commit 2%." And the member nations were already ramping up their defence spending when the comments were made.

Again, let's go back to the realities of US contributions to Europe. There is a total of 7 USAF fast jet squadrons in Europe, one of which is non-op as it's re-equipping. The RAF alone has more fast jet squadrons, let alone adding all the other European partners. Take a look at US ground forces in Europe. How many divisions are deployed? None. Zero. Nada. There wasn't a command echelon below USAREUR until the HQ for V Corps was stood up and, even then, the original plan was for most of that HQ to be CONUS. Bear in mind all these "EUCOM" assets are actually shared with AFRICOM because the latter has no dedicated forces of its own (except SF), so the air, land, and maritime assets are doing double-duty with two separate command chains, which risks further diluting available capability (in reality, AFRICOM constantly suffers because, obviously, EUCOM has priority...however, there is competition for resources).

Yes, the entire weight of the US military could be brought to bear in Europe if necessary...theoretically. The truth is rather different. Once Op DELIBERATE FORCE ended, Europe ceased to be the focus for US military operations. Financial and manpower budgets were slashed so resources could be used elsewhere. I know of organizations that lost 50% of their manning pretty much overnight, while other functions ceased entirely or were merged to reduce manpower. A posting to EUCOM was known as the "wine and cheese" tour because the entire focus for the command was pushing deploying forces through to CENTCOM. It wasn't until Scaparotti became the EUCOM Commander that things started to change. In testimony to Congress in early 2017, he noted that EUCOM had made a "shift to deterrence and defense" to return "to our historic role as a warfighting command." That strongly implies that, prior to his tenure, EUCOM wasn't a warfighting command:









Scaparotti: Russia Pushing U.S. European Command Back to a Warfighting Focus


Since Russia seized Crimea and began using proxies to destabilize the Ukrainian government in 2014 and menace its neighbors with actions short of war, the senior American officer in Europe told the House Armed Services Committee.




news.usni.org





It's no point having forces available if they can't deliver the warfighting punch...and to do that takes staff planning and operational execution, it takes practice in exercises at the scale of the anticipated fight (which hadn't been happening because the forces were all in CENTCOM). The fight in EUCOM is VERY different from the fight in CENTCOM. In the latter, the entire planning effort is built around a small-sized unit, often platoon-level, kicking in doors to pick off individual targets. EUCOM needs to prepare for operations involving multiple corps of ground forces that are attriting "classes of targets" and having to engage thousands of individual elements within those.




drgondog said:


> Neither You, nor I have ANY insight and or tangible proof regarding what we 'will or won't' do directly or via proxy. It is an established fact that Gates and Soros and CDC/NIH were partcipants in Wuhan Lab dating at least back to 2007. Prove me wrong about Proxy labs and then address what I recall as Nuland's acknowledgement that we were 'operating labs' without specificity.



Again, I've seen first-hand how the US likes to control sensitive operations. It doesn't outsource things that it needs to keep to itself. The more people you bring in on a secret, the more likely it is that the secret will be revealed. That's why there are multiple security compartments at very high classification levels to minimise the number of people who are aware of the secret. There may be shadowy parts of the US Government doing stuff but, frankly, even the CIA has stepped back from wet work. That's the stuff of Hollywood fantasy.

I'm not getting into an argument on the whole labs issue. I'll simply point you to two non-US stories, one of which finds no evidence that the US funded secret bio-labs in Ukraine, and the other demonstrating that the Covid outbreak in Wuhan likely came from cross-species infection and not from a lab (note the clustering of early cases around the market originally identified as the source). Feel free to disregard them but the conspiracy has to get VERY big if WHO and the BBC is part of it (ignoring the illogic that Nuland was stupid enough to admit to bio-weapon labs on an open line but the US government is smart enough to hide these "secret" labs...which are mentioned on the State Dept's own website!):









Ukraine war: Fact-checking Russia's biological weapons claims


The BBC finds no evidence for Russian claims that Ukraine is developing biological weapons with US support.



www.bbc.com













Covid origin studies say evidence points to Wuhan market


One of the researchers said he hoped the studies would correct the false theory that it came from a lab.



www.bbc.com








drgondog said:


> To listen to the cynical hawk 'familiar' on my shoulder, we wished to replace "the guy they controlled with the guy we controlled". Out of curiousity what is your metric on 'more corrupt' vs 'less corrupt'. If comparing Ukraine pre Zelensky vs Zelensky what do you propose as quantitatie metrics?



You're making a sweeping assumption that the US "controls" any leader of any foreign nation. As noted in my previous post, even the UK has differences of opinion compared to the US Government...and, frankly, there's no closer Ally to the US than dear old Blighty. The idea that the US Government can control what democratically-elected officials in foreign countries do is ridiculous. Can the US put a finger on the scales? Maybe a little...but there's the whole issue of democracy and people making their own choices.

In terms of corruption, I'll take the following. There are other corruption metrics out there but this one seems to be the most recognized for it's general integrity and consistency. It's not perfect (nothing is perfect) and Transparency International has had some issues using inappropriate funding sources. However, the index shows Ukraine making significant progress in countering corruption since 2014:









2021 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the results


How does your country measure up in the 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index?




www.transparency.org








drgondog said:


> How does that illustrate Illogic if his vision of Russia Controlled Ukraine is different pre-Zelensky, from his vision of Russia controlled post Zelensky?
> He has not been 'vague' about intentions regarding Ukraine for last several years. Democratic, Republic, Marxist nstitutions have one thing in common - The People wish freedom to determine their path and a Rule of Law that they understand.
> 
> Seperate Putin from the equation - he plays to the RUSSIAN phobia about foe on border. You are looking at a spokesperson leader that understands his People - it doesn't matter how we view him.



Well, all the Russian talking heads keep saying that Ukraine IS Russia, hence the "special military operation" is "liberating" Russian territory from nazis. If we take that at face value, then the enemy is ALREADY on the border in the form of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

The entire argument is illogical. Yes, it plays into the "us-and-them" mantra that so often gets spouted by nationalists of all stripes. That doesn't mean it's right, nor does it mean we should glibly accept it when it patently fails the giggle test.

It's funny that you talk about freedom and rule of law regarding Russia given that they have no free press, laws change at the whim of Putin, and there is no right to have an opinion different from that of Putin. The people don't have freedom. They're spoon-fed a message and have to jump in line every time the laws are changed without any due process or calibration (e.g. calling the "special military occupation" a war resulted in imprisonment, and even standing silently holding a blank sheet of paper was deemed a protest and the person was arrested).




drgondog said:


> He laid the eggs, built his stash, plotted the steps necessary to cripple the dollar, expand the Russia sphere of influence and hurt the NATO/US alliance. He didn't invite you (or me) to his thought processes.



The problem is that Putin's execution of the operation in Ukraine has been completely fumbled...and yet we're supposed to believe that he's a genius who can bring down the west by deliberately crippling the dollar and causing an energy and food crisis? Oh...and the energy crisis hurts Russia as much as it hurts anyone else.

Take a look at this recent analysis. I think it's pretty on-target:









How Putin’s War in Ukraine Has Ruined Russia | Journal of Democracy


May 2022 | In a matter of weeks, the Russian autocrat has erased his country’s prosperity in a feckless attempt to rebuild a doomed empire.




www.journalofdemocracy.org






I'm going to leave out the rest of the comments because they get too political for my blood...except to point out (again) that countries don't jump up and down just because America says so, particularly the European democracies. They elect THEIR governments based on the will of THEIR people. Just because America doesn't like what they do doesn't invalidate their democratic processes.

I will note that Zelensky was elected by a generally-accepted fair and democratic process. As noted in the corruption index, Ukraine has made considerable strides in becoming a more transparent, less corrupt, society. Ukraine is far from perfect but calling Zelensky a despot is going too far, IMHO.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ukraine is in the best position. All they have to do is outlast Russia, and they are well on their way to doing that.



Right, they don't have to win, they need to not lose. I hope they can land further blows. They will need to in order to secure the terms they want.

The best thing arising from this offensive in my view is that the Ukrainians have seized the initiative on the ground. Hopefully they have enough reserves to retain it..

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Chris - we may expend $trillion, draw down our readiness inventory to fight One conventional win, suffer the inflation that comes with unconstrained spending that requires the Fed to print money. Explain to our (US/American People in the steets/ the 'win'? or conversely 'why it doesn't matter'?



I see nothing controversial about it. I think is a fight that must happen. I’ll continue to think for myself.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If all you want to do is talk to Chris, can you take this demonstrably-private convo to DMs?
> 
> I keep skipping past to see what the group is posting about the Russo-Ukraine war.



Don’t throw me under the bus like that…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, let's see...there was Suez in the 1950s when Britain asked America to join but the US did everything in its power to scupper the entire operation.
> 
> There have also been plenty of operations where the US didn't want Allies along for the ride. The UK and Germany contributed aircraft to Op PROVIDE RELIEF but were explicitly excluded from joining the US HQ because the US didn't want those countries getting insights into what was happening with the parallel Op RESTORE HOPE. I know because I was there. I was supposed to be part of a small Brit team joining the US HQ in Mogadishu but the US commander refused to bring us in.
> 
> ...



And good ole Putler was sitting back watching the weakening of NATO from within without having to fire a shot. No wonder he felt bold enough to invade. Alas it is all too political for me as well. I’m done with this part of the discussion.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

I'm a big politics nerd, but I'd hate to see this thread shut down.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And good ole Putler was sitting back watching the weakening of NATO from within without having to fire a shot. No wonder he felt bold enough to invade. Alas it is all too political for me as well. I’m done with this part of the discussion.



Sorry if I overstepped the line, Chris. I'm trying to navigate it carefully by providing sourced contributions. I'll probably back off now for fear of adding more heat than light to the conversation.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm a big politics nerd, but I'd hate to see this thread shut down.



None of us want that. As we stated we eased the “no politics” rule and you all have been great. I thank you all for that. Some, however, want to keep pushing the barriers though. 

Let’s hope it does not come to that…


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Sorry if I overstepped the line, Chris. I'm trying to navigate it carefully by providing sourced contributions. I'll probably back off now for fear of adding more heat than light to the conversation.



I agree with everything you said. I’m just going to back out of that part of the discussion because I am having to think way to hard how to respond without breaking rules or my desire to hold myself to a more mature and higher standard than I did at times years ago.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> None of us want that. As we stated we eased the “no politics” rule and you all have been great. I thank you all for that. Some, however, want to keep pushing the barriers though.
> 
> Let’s hope it does not come to that…



I get how hard it can be, I just felt the need to speak up.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I get how hard it can be, I just felt the need to speak up.



Nothing is in the works for being closed at the moment. The topic just came up because we knew it was only a matter of time before people got “too comfortable.”


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

And now to return to the true topic at hand…

Here’s a reason to keep fighting. Here’s a reason to support Ukraine. Here’s a reason Vladoph Putler and Russia must be stopped.









At Mass Grave Site in Ukraine's Northeast, a Sign of Occupation's Toll


IZIUM, Ukraine — Hundreds of graves had been cut into the sandy soil of a pine forest, isolated and unexamined. A chilly wind blew through the tree branches. Police officers spoke in hushed tones. And newly dug up bodies lay all about on the forest floor. Just a week after Russian forces fled...




www.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 17, 2022)

If the US refuses to release F-16s or other country‘s jets that rely on US tech, like the Gripen, what options does Ukraine have? How about the Eurofighter, are they free of US tech, but are there any to spare? 

I get the sense that Ukraine will get what it needs to hold back to Russians, but not enough to take the well defended and prepared Donbas.



Russia makes new stand after being thrown back by rapid Ukrainian offensive

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Military intel chief says Putin can't achieve Ukraine goal


Russia's setbacks and stretched resources in Ukraine show its forces are incapable of achieving President Vladimir Putin's initial aims in invading the country as things stand now, the Pentagon's intelligence chief said Friday. “We're coming to a point right now where I think Putin is going to...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the US refuses to release F-16s or other country‘s jets that rely on US tech, like the Gripen, what options does Ukraine have? How about the Eurofighter, are they free of US tech, but are there any to spare?
> 
> I get the sense that Ukraine will get what it needs to hold back to Russians, but not enough to take the well defended and prepared Donbas.



You have to remember, everything has to benefit everyone’s own national interest. I think most countries don’t see their latest technologies being jeopardized and compromised as best for their national interest. Neither does degrading their own capabilities and war fighting ability by giving away too much hardware. I may be wrong, but I see that as playing a significant part in what equipment is provided and what isn’t. Nobody wants to see Czar Vladolph Putler the Great succeed (well most people that is), however, they have to balance strategy and national interest (and national interest is a strategy in itself).

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 17, 2022)

Russia’s taking a stand.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 17, 2022)

Of course, Russian forces will make a stand, they have to at some point. Their Commanders are feeling heat from Putler the Magnificent, so they have to try.
I suspect, however, that while Ukrainian forces keep pressure in that point, they'll launch an offensive from another sector to put the Russians off balance.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 18, 2022)

Zelensky says ‘torture chambers’ where civilians were abused found in Kharkiv region


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Ukraine has found “torture chambers” where civilians were abused in areas of the Kharkiv region recently liberated from Russian occupation. Zelensky said in an address that officials found premises where civilians were kept, including...




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Zelensky says ‘torture chambers’ where civilians were abused found in Kharkiv region
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Ukraine has found “torture chambers” where civilians were abused in areas of the Kharkiv region recently liberated from Russian occupation. Zelensky said in an address that officials found premises where civilians were kept, including...
> ...


These discoveries of atrocities infuriates me to no end.

How does does inflicting misery and terror to a civilian populace help an invasion?

Hitler made this mistake in 1941, when he rolled into Ukraine - the Wehrmacht was received as liberators and showered with flowers and celebrations. The people were ready to join in the fight against the Red Army and that quickly changed.

How can the Russians justify anything they've done - murdering civilians in the street, targeting schools and hospitals, torture, rape and more.

They are nothing more than a 21st century version of the Nazi assholes that they are supposedly there to eliminate.

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## at6 (Sep 18, 2022)

GTX said:


>



For something like that I would torture and kill every Orc I could get my hands on. Sons of Moscow Brothel Pigs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ThomasP (Sep 18, 2022)

Hey anybody interested in the whys and wherefores of NATO.

The link below is IMO to a good explanation of the formation of NATO from a historical perspective.

"Milestones: 1945–1952 - Office of the Historian."

Note that the US was the primary instigator of NATO. Also note the reasons why the US pushed for the organization, and the parallels between what was happening then and what is happening now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

drgondog said:


> Chris - we may expend $trillion, draw down our readiness inventory to fight One conventional win, suffer the inflation that comes with unconstrained spending that requires the Fed to print money. Explain to our (US/American People in the steets/ the 'win'? or conversely 'why it doesn't matter'?



The inflation we're suffering currently has nothing to do with any additional money being printed as a result of this war or our assistance.

Now can you please drop the goddamned politics before this thread gets killed? If you wish to discuss it with someone, use the PM system instead of wrecking what many in this community appreciate.

It's almost as if you guys are _trying_ to scupper this thread, fer chrissakes.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 18, 2022)

Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance.

Russian failures to rush large-scale reinforcements to eastern Kharkiv and to Luhansk Oblasts leave most of Russian-occupied northeastern Ukraine highly vulnerable to continuing Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Ukrainian forces appear to be expanding positions east of the Oskil River and north of the Siverskyi Donets River that could allow them to envelop Russian troops holding around Lyman.

Ukrainian sources reported extensive partisan attacks on Russian military assets and logistics in southern Zaporizhia Oblast.






Institute for the Study of War


Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various




www.understandingwar.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 18, 2022)

Anyone with a brain knows it was never about NATO

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## buffnut453 (Sep 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And now to return to the true topic at hand…
> 
> Here’s a reason to keep fighting. Here’s a reason to support Ukraine. Here’s a reason Vladoph Putler and Russia must be stopped.
> 
> ...



I'd like to see more info about the mass grave. The images that I've seen show lots of neatly-aligned crosses over individual burial plots which doesn't really tally with what we typically see in a hidden mass grave. Now, Ukrainians who knew relatives had been killed may have come to the place later to mark the burial site...but they'd have to know where their loved one was buried. I'm still a little nonplussed by the individual graves and crosses.


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## hawkeye2an (Sep 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Now can you please drop the goddamned politics before this thread gets killed? If you wish to discuss it with someone, use the PM system instead of wrecking what many in this community appreciate.
> 
> It's almost as if you guys are _trying_ to scupper this thread, fer chrissakes.


PLEASE

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## WARSPITER (Sep 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd like to see more info about the mass grave. The images that I've seen show lots of neatly-aligned crosses over individual burial plots which doesn't really tally with what we typically see in a hidden mass grave. Now, Ukrainians who knew relatives had been killed may have come to the place later to mark the burial site...but they'd have to know where their loved one was buried. I'm still a little nonplussed by the individual graves and crosses.


It's possible the families of the dead were the ones who had to bury them ?


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## buffnut453 (Sep 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It's possible the families of the dead were the ones who had to bury them ?



I agree...but, then, it's hardly a secret burial site. And if the families buried them, would they do it with the evidence of torture intact? The BBC reported that the first grave was of a woman who had a rope around her neck. It strikes me as odd that the family would bury her in such a fashion. Also, why would the Russians allow family members to bury their relatives with evidence of torture intact?

The commonly-understood concept of a mass grave is of a large pit with bodies tossed in en masse. There are no grave markers and, typically, the perpetrators try to keep the location secret so their crimes go undetected.

This whole thing just feels odd to me. Hopefully, there will be procedurally-correct investigations to get to the bottom of it.

EDIT: Having read a little more, I think we're seeing multiple activities here. There was at least one mass grave that contained 20 Ukrainian soldiers. Other graves are individual, probably the deaths of civilians due to artillery or other weapons. It still seems odd that the mass grave of soldiers would be in the same place as individual family burials but it's a little clearer and more understandable now.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I agree...but, then, it's hardly a secret burial site. And if the families buried them, would they do it with the evidence of torture intact? The BBC reported that the first grave was of a woman who had a rope around her neck. It strikes me as odd that the family would bury her in such a fashion. Also, why would the Russians allow family members to bury their relatives with evidence of torture intact?
> 
> The whole thing just seems odd to me. The commonly-understood concept of a mass grave is of a large pit with bodies tossed in en masse. There are no grave markers and, typically, the perpetrators try to keep the location secret so their crimes go undetected.
> 
> ...


Hard to know isn't it. Reporting can sometimes exaggerate what is what so we will have to wait and see I suppose.

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## tomo pauk (Sep 18, 2022)

Not sure if this was posted before, so here it goes:

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## SaparotRob (Sep 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> For something like that I would torture and kill every Orc I could get my hands on. Sons of Moscow Brothel Pigs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


If you really want to piss Americans off, mistreat a dog.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 18, 2022)

In the artical regarding the graves, it was mentioned that there are several sites: one in town had wooden crosses made by locals who buried victims from a block of flats that was struck by artillery (rockets?) but there is also one out in the woods that contains a mass burial.

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> If you really want to piss Americans off, mistreat a dog.


Not only Americans i tell you. I once heared a ww2 story of a trapped dog. Italy, Germans started to shoot at it because when they tried to advance the dog started to bark. The opposing force ( british but it in my memory i think Polish) did not take this kindly and over ran superior forces.
Do not piss off dog lovers with guns and arty.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 18, 2022)

I wasn't tracking this...with everything else going on, Ukraine was providing 250 troops and 8 helos for UN peacekeeping ops in DRC...and had been doing it for a decade. These are now being withdrawn so they can further augment Ukraine's forces taking on the Russian military:









Ukraine troops leave DR Congo peacekeeping mission Monusco


The troops are needed at home but the pull-out may leave the UN mission short of vital helicopters.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 18, 2022)

Wow. Who knew? Ukraine keeping to international responsibilities while defending its own existence.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The inflation we're suffering currently has nothing to do with any additional money being printed as a result of this war or our assistance.
> 
> Now can you please drop the goddamned politics before this thread gets killed? If you wish to discuss it with someone, use the PM system instead of wrecking what many in this community appreciate.
> 
> It's almost as if you guys are _trying_ to scupper this thread, fer chrissakes.



Thank you. Took the words right out of my mouth.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd like to see more info about the mass grave. The images that I've seen show lots of neatly-aligned crosses over individual burial plots which doesn't really tally with what we typically see in a hidden mass grave. Now, Ukrainians who knew relatives had been killed may have come to the place later to mark the burial site...but they'd have to know where their loved one was buried. I'm still a little nonplussed by the individual graves and crosses.



I agree. When I read the report they said that the individual graves with the crosses were next to a mass grave with as many as 400 bodies in it. At least that is how I understood it.


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## GTX (Sep 18, 2022)

Australia will not sanction Russian tourists, Ukraine military assistance to continue for the 'long haul'


Australia will not ban Russian tourists from entering the country as part of sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, Defence Minister Richard Marles says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 18, 2022)

In the Ukrainian town of Izium, residents search grave sites for relatives after Russian forces are driven out


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says there is new evidence of torture used against the people buried in Izium, one of more than 20 towns retaken in the north-eastern Kharkiv region after a lightning advance earlier this month.




www.abc.net.au

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Australia will not sanction Russian tourists, Ukraine military assistance to continue for the 'long haul'
> 
> 
> Australia will not ban Russian tourists from entering the country as part of sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, Defence Minister Richard Marles says.
> ...



I would. While the people are not to blame for Putler’s madness, they should feel the full burden of the sanctions. Only that way will they step up and knock him off his roost. While travel are low on the totem pole, every bit helps.

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## Dimlee (Sep 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If the US refuses to release F-16s or other country‘s jets that rely on US tech, like the Gripen, what options does Ukraine have? How about the Eurofighter, are they free of US tech, but are there any to spare?
> 
> I get the sense that Ukraine will get what it needs to hold back to Russians, but not enough to take the well defended and prepared Donbas.
> 
> ...


South Korea, probably. I wish Ukraine to strengthen its military cooperation with the East. With the "western" East... Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Singapore - there is a lot to share and to learn from each other.

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## Dimlee (Sep 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd like to see more info about the mass grave. The images that I've seen show lots of neatly-aligned crosses over individual burial plots which doesn't really tally with what we typically see in a hidden mass grave. Now, Ukrainians who knew relatives had been killed may have come to the place later to mark the burial site...but they'd have to know where their loved one was buried. I'm still a little nonplussed by the individual graves and crosses.


Most probably, locals collected and buried the bodies.

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## Dimlee (Sep 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> the perpetrators try to keep the location secret so their crimes go undetected


They don't care today. They publish videos of tortures. They destroy civilian infrastructure and then their TV stars, bloggers and politicians cheer and ask to destroy more.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 18, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> South Korea, probably. I wish Ukraine to strengthen its military cooperation with the East. With the "western" East... Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Singapore - there is a lot to share and to learn from each other.


The eastern west and the western west should reinforce political and military cooperation. Both face the same expansionist & autocratic challenge.

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## Dimlee (Sep 18, 2022)

SAMs were moved from St.Petersburg to (probably) Ukraine.
They were "threatened" by NATO, didn't they.








Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine


Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.




yle.fi

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Of course, Russian forces will make a stand, they have to at some point.


Yes, I agree. My point was that the Russians fleeing like they did at Kiyv and Kharkiv cannot be easily repeated at Donbas and Kherson.


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## manta22 (Sep 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Australia will not sanction Russian tourists, Ukraine military assistance to continue for the 'long haul'
> 
> 
> Australia will not ban Russian tourists from entering the country as part of sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, Defence Minister Richard Marles says.
> ...


How many Russian does Australia get anyway?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yes, I agree. My point was that the Russians fleeing like they did at Kiev and Kharkiv cannot be easily repeated at Donbas and Kherson.



In the Donbas, the Russian border is a fair bit closer than it was to Kyev. I'd think that would make fleeing easier. Indeed, I've read reports of Russian troops fleeing over the border and back into Russia.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> In the Donbas, the Russian border is a fair bit closer than it was to Kyev. I'd think that would make fleeing easier. Indeed, I've read reports of Russian troops fleeing over the border and back into Russia.


It’s not an opportunity to flee I‘m thinking of. No, it’s that Russia’s hardier troops will give ground less readily in Kherson and Donbas. But let’s see, the collapse at Kharkiv surprised many.


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## ThomasP (Sep 18, 2022)

re









Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine


Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.




yle.fi





 The first thought that came into my mind when I saw this headline was that maybe the missiles were removed as a symbolic gesture to the politicians & political dissidents. Sort of a "fine, if you do not like what we are doing then you can be undefended agains NATO air strikes".

St Petersburg seems to be a hotbed of anti-Putin/anti-war sentiments - including at least 18 district politicians who have openly spoken against Putin.

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## ThomasP (Sep 18, 2022)

China's Belt and Road Initiative

I do not remember seeing this mentioned in the thread, so as I think it is relevant to how China views Russia's actions re Ukraine and the effects, here are a couple of informative links: 

"Belt and Road Initiative - Wikipedia"

and/or

"How China’s Belt and Road Initiative is faring"

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## SaparotRob (Sep 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I saw this this report and it encourages my little daydream. A bunch of Ukrainian MiG-29s, armed exclusively with Soviet era missiles/bombs snake through Ruzzian air defenses and take out a power station somewhat close to Moscow and safely return. It does require a bit of incompetence on the Russians part. 
Say what you will, it's more realistic than my "Martian War Machines rising out of the rasputitsa (in groups of three) and vaporizing the orcs" fantasy.

The 1953 Martian war machines.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s not an opportunity to flee I‘m thinking of. No, it’s that Russia’s hardier troops will give ground less readily in Kherson and Donbas. But let’s see, the collapse at Kharkiv surprised many.



I will confess skepticism about hardy Russian troops. In the Kherson area, they've seen supplies throttled by Ukrainian strikes on the bridges, but they also reinforced the area against an anticipated offensive that now seems to have been a feint.

Around Kharkiv and on the north flank of the Donbas, the grudging successes they've achieved in the last four months have largely been rolled back in about a week or so, and the Russian troops, abandoning artillery pieces, tanks, and other heavy equipment; those are the troops whom I've read have retreated across the Russian border in some cases.

In the Donbas, it's all nice when the Russians have arty support, but I think that is changing as the Ukrainians have been using MLRS etc to interdict supply-lines and attack depots.

It seems to me that without heavy support the Russian soldiers don't have much stand-and-fight in 'em. And that speaks directly to the will to win, and hardiness.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And that's his hometown!


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 18, 2022)

.....and I suspect they will be used against ground targets as well. There is a good reason if you manufacture your own military hardware why you want it and the components all made within your country

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## SaparotRob (Sep 18, 2022)

As to Russian soldiers not having much stand and fight in them, we will have to ask the Chechen enforcers who will shoot them if they try to run.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> As to Russian soldiers not having much stand and fight in them, we will have to ask the Chechen enforcers who will shoot them if they try to run.



If you need enforcers that says a lot right there. Motivated troops don't need backstops, they need reinforcements.

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## ThomasP (Sep 18, 2022)

Possibly of interest.

Some of my fellow war gamers and I just finished a scenario designed to figure out what aircraft would be the best in terms of smallest numbers, quickest in service times, and greatest impact on the air & ground situation in Ukraine. IMO what we came up with is kind of interesting.

Basically, at a minimum in terms of numbers (and hence the least training time) and earliest in use date along with ease of maintaining numbers, our conclusion is that Ukraine would best be served by 1x F-35 (oversize at 16-20 airframes) squadron and 3x A-10 squadrons in concert with moderate to high capability drones.

The numbers were kind of astonishing re the F-35. Even downplaying some of the F-35 capabilities we found that 8-9x operational airframes at any point in time would be enough to deal with the local air superiority mission (most of the time), and the anti-bomber launched air-to-ground missile threat (again most of the time), as well as acting as mini-airborne AWACS/INTEL/Targeting platforms in support of the A-10s and ground-based guided weapon systems.

The drone(s) INTEL and Targeting capabilities would be used to locate targets for both the F-35 and A-10 mission planning, and to indicate targets for the A-10s using laser designators and/or GPS coordinates.

The A-10s acted as guided weapon missile/bomb trucks in the stand-off mode about 2/3 of the time, in concert with the F-35s and drones, and as true CAS when needed to remove troublesome Russian hard points and disrupt force concentrations, as well as disrupting Russian operations all on their ownsome. BRRRRRRT-BRRRRRRT

The F-35B and A-10C are both capable of safely operating from relatively simple airstrips and hard surface roads of less than 1 mile length, so finding locations to operate from would be relatively easy. And they have compatible data-links.

The deployment of forward maintenance capability for the A-10C is already fully developed. But there would be the problem of maintaining the F-35. Our answer was to deploy "civilian contractors" to perform much of the local maintenance needs and send the airframes to a nearby country for higher level maintenance. (While the Russians might object to this, they really have no basis since they have done the same thing in nearly every war where they have actively supported one side that used any of their more sophisticated equipment.)

The only time we found the F-35s ran into problems in the air-to-air role was when the Russians managed to 'swamp' the F-35s in terms of numbers. This happened once when the F-35s did not shoot-and-scoot as soon as they saw a significant number (~20x MiG-29 & Su-27 vs the 8x F-35) and allowed the Russian aircraft get to within ~20 miles. The scenario F-35 losses were light overall, with more lost to accident (4) than to combat (2).

The A-10s took fairly heavy losses over the time of the scenario (1.5 months of operations) to the point that out of the original number (51) there were only 18 still operational. Given the total number of sorties flown (just over 1500) the losses by the A-10s were high at ~1 airframe loss per 7 sorties where they encountered significant AA activity in the CAS role (~300 sorties). But when taking the effect of the A-10 into account (ie near total loss of the Russian ground forces to operate due to inability to resupply, destruction of equipment, and loss of morale) it was worth it operationally. The last 10 days of the scenario the A-10s operated with near total impunity.

Obviously the above success of the F-35/A-10/drone methodology did not occur in a vacuum. The Ukraine artillery and HIMARS/MLRS continued to perform their missions, as did the infantry and armour units. By the end of the scenario, 80% of the surviving Russian and separatist combat units in the east and south (other than Crimea) were out of supply and cut off from retreat (if desired).

In the above scenario, we assumed several things:

That there are at least a small number (~20) of Ukraine's pilots able to learn to fly and successfully adapt relatively quickly (~3 months) to the F-35 weapon system.

That there are enough Ukrainian pilots able to learn to fly and successfully adapt relatively quickly (~3 months) to the A-10 weapon system.

That the above scenario will only work if Ukraine can protect the bases and airframes while on the ground.

That the above scenario requires a FAAD system capable of providing air defense over the front lines, including protection for the A-10s against air superiority aircraft to beyond visual range (at least ~20 miles) while operating within the FAAD system envelope. NASAMS (currently in the pipeline for Ukraine) would provide this capability.

Of note:

We did not deal with the over land threats possible via future large deployments of Russian forces from Crimea. We assumed that if Ukraine could succeed against the RF in the rest of the south then any future ground threat from the Crimean area would be negated.

We found no practical way to provide safe and sustainable operational in-flight refueling, so mission times were somewhat limited.

We found no practical way to provide the ability to maintain any of the more sophisticated US/NATO airframes (ie F-35/F-18/F-16/F-15) in any reasonable timeframe, without the use of 'civilian contractors'.

Within the 3 month timeframe (even with the deployable 'packaged' squadron level maintenance system developed for A-10 operations) the A-10 was only on the edge of the Ukrainian ability to maintain. The defective systems were sent to another country or to a rear area for maintenance by 'civilian contractors'.

We did not have any comprehensive knowledge of the state of the Ukrainian logistic system relative to aviation fuel supply volume vs time, but between fuel supply and maintenance we assumed the ability to fly at an average of 0.5 sorties day per operational airframe.

There was a lot more involved in framing the scenario, but it would take a booklet to cover it all.

Just sayin' buzz-buzz, BRRRRRT-BRRRRRT

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I will confess skepticism about hardy Russian troops.


It‘s the widespread and popular feeling right now. I hope the skeptics are right, but I’m not counting on a repeat of the Kharkiv collapse in Donbas. Maybe in Kherson, but only above the Dniper River.

But again, I hope I’m wrong and that by the end of October the UAF has liberated Kherson, Donetsk and Sievierodonetsk. This will then prepare them well for a Spring 2023 offensive to liberate much of the rest.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It‘s the widespread and popular feeling right now. I hope the skeptics are right, but I’m not counting on a repeat of the Kharkiv collapse in Donbas. Maybe in Kherson, but only above the Dniper River.



No one counts upon the opponent being weak, at least not no one sensible. But just speaking from what we've all read the last six months, I think we can all see a difference in motivation between Ukrainian forces who have fought outgunned and outnumbered, and their opponents who are literally abandoning field-pieces and heavy tanks in order to get out alive.



Admiral Beez said:


> But again, I hope I’m wrong and that by the end of October the UAF has liberated Kherson, Donetsk and Sievierodonetsk. This will then prepare them well for a Spring 2023 offensive to liberate much of the rest.



I don't think the Ukrainians will be able to do all that in the next few months. This battle has been decisive, but only in the sense that it has bought Ukraine time. It is not a war-winner. But the Russian morale, or lack thereof, has been put on display in the front window.

Hopefully next the Ukrainians can slice to the coast between Kherson and Mariupol and sever the Russian fronts in the east and the south. Even that will take, probably, a couple of months for regrouping, planning, and re-equipping. The Ukrainians have been hurt too.

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## at6 (Sep 18, 2022)

I still believe the the Ukrainians right when they say no negotiations until Russia has left ALL Ukrainian territory.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> I still believe the the Ukrainians right when they say no negotiations until Russia has left ALL Ukrainian territory.



Negotiate, but do not accept anything less than that. Barbarism can not be rewarded. I'll happily pay my taxes if Ukraine can rise free.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

I keep seeing "spring offensive".

Historically, Ukrainian Red Army regiments were the most effective in winter offensives in past wars.

I would be willing to bet that if this war drags on into the winter months, they will not wait until spring.

As an aside, in the most brutal street fighting in Berlin, it was the Ukrainian regiment that managed to break through into the heart of Berlin all ahead of the others after savage door to door fighting.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

Much depends on the weather .A freeze can work both ways. So can spring mud.


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## WARSPITER (Sep 19, 2022)

Ukrainian planners have done a really good job to this stage. Logistics are what allows anyone to keep fighting and the
clever attacks on Russian supplies which happened in various areas seems at first to be random opportunity actions.

In reality they were well planned as they were carried out just before Ukrainian counter offensives / feints and left the Russian 
defenders with no way of holding lines where there was no backup when it came to munitions and general supplies. This is 
a classic and well thought system by Ukraine and one that even a semi competent Russian command should have been
ready for.

Well done so far.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 19, 2022)

Just got home from an international aerospace conference. Interesting to say the least. First one I've been to since the start of COVID.

On the defense side, most talk was focused around Russia-Ukraine and issues of sustainment for both sides. The rest was US supply chains/insourcing (too much reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan) and European re-armament, plus the usual complaints that drones and the F-35 are sucking up all the oxygen in the room. There was also the occasional bit of speculation about Russia panicking and pressing the big red button.

One seasoned executive from a US defense contractor said he hadn't seen defense orders for "expendables" (bombs, missiles, fuses, rockets, cannon ammunition and other things that go boom) at such volumes since 2002, during the lead up to the Iraq invasion. Talk was that weapon systems procurement spending for this year (FY2023) will be $5.5 billion above what it was last year, and that there will be a request for a similar increase in next year's budget.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 19, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Possibly of interest.
> 
> Some of my fellow war gamers and I just finished a scenario designed to figure out what aircraft would be the best in terms of smallest numbers, quickest in service times, and greatest impact on the air & ground situation in Ukraine. IMO what we came up with is kind of interesting.
> 
> ...



I feel like a single F-35 squadron, along with the sustainment that needs to be in place to support it, would probably end up as the world's greatest magnet for PGMs.

If Ukraine did get a squadron and then the Russians learnt what base of operations they were using, I could see every cruise missile and long range drone remaining in the Russian inventory heading that way in very short order.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I feel like a single F-35 squadron, along with the sustainment that needs to be in place to support it, would probably end up as the world's greatest magnet for PGMs.
> 
> If Ukraine did get a squadron and then the Russians learnt what base of operations they were using, I could see every cruise missile and long range drone remaining in the Russian inventory heading that way in very short order.


But the Ukraine AF is constantly rotating their FOBs - so there is no one single fixed location.
This has been one of the UAF's saving graces since day one.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 19, 2022)

Successful Ukrainian river crossing operation on the northeastern front? If they can hold the eastern bank, this could be huge.









Deadly Donetsk blasts hit separatist-run city in Ukraine


The Russia-backed mayor of the eastern city of Donetsk blames Ukrainians for the blasts that killed 13.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But the Ukraine AF is constantly rotating their FOBs - so there is no one single fixed location.
> This has been one of the UAF's saving graces since day one.


Is the F-16 with its dainty nose gear rough strip capable? Maybe the Gripen with its twin nose wheel is more apt for roads and makeshift airfields?












The Gripen above has nose gear more like the rough and tumble MiG-29.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

_Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast. Putin's souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin's increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units._






Institute for the Study of War







www.understandingwar.org

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 19, 2022)

I think the Gripen would be the better choice. Having the air intake on the bottom of an aircraft operating from rough runways would be a disaster waiting to happen.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is the F-16 with its dainty nose gear rough strip capable? Maybe the Gripen with its twin nose wheel is more apt for roads and makeshift airfields?
> 
> View attachment 687726
> 
> ...



Doesn’t need to be rough strip capable. All it needs is a straight road.

Every autobahn in Germany for example is a runway. Strategy during the cold war was to disperse the NATO fleet throughout the country and use them if the balloon had gone up.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think the Gripen would be the better choice. Having the air intake on the bottom of an aircraft operating from rough runways would be a disaster waiting to happen.


Ukraine had intended to buy the Gripen. 









Sweden donates Gripen hunters to Ukraine but not until 2027







europe-cities.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I feel like a single F-35 squadron, along with the sustainment that needs to be in place to support it, would probably end up as the world's greatest magnet for PGMs.
> 
> If Ukraine did get a squadron and then the Russians learnt what base of operations they were using, I could see every cruise missile and long range drone remaining in the Russian inventory heading that way in very short order.


Well, on the other hand, Ruzzia will be out of missiles. Now, can you guys head to Ukraine and start building dummy F-35s? Don't waste time getting squadron markings right.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

Ukraine and Lockheed were working on a deal for F-16s about a year ago.

Chris answered the question regarding improv ops for the F-16 - it can operate from highways.
It is necessary to conduct an FOD walk prior to it's taking off, but there are countless stretches of roadway where it can deploy from.

Where the MiG-29 is superior to the F-16, is it can operate from most hard surfaces and it's intake system is designed with that in mind. In other words, it's not confined to maintained airfields or highways.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 19, 2022)

Ukraine needs to be careful it doesn't repeat the mistakes the Russians have made:









Deadly Donetsk blasts hit separatist-run city in Ukraine


The Russia-backed mayor of the eastern city of Donetsk blames Ukrainians for the blasts that killed 13.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

The Ukraine military is not known for shelling random civilian targets, they tend to be more conservative with their supply of munitions and save them for legimate targets.

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## Zipper730 (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> As far as Russia's nuclear arsenal is concerned, what shape are the missiles in? Judging how their equipment has performed so poorly in combat, I imagine their nukes are in a comparable state of fitness.


While I could be wrong, I would assume those would be kept in tip-top shape even if most of the conventional arsenal was disintegrating.


> And those 10 percent have to make it through the wall of interceptors situated around North America, the Atlantic and Pacific.


From what I recall the whole idea of MAD was that even if one side knocked out 90% of the nuclear capability of the other side, the remaining 10% would be enough to bomb the other off the face of the Earth.



drgondog said:


> One political comment here is now inserted "Except for the Release of Covid-19" which was the greatest Ever destroyer of free economy and prosperity across the globe for a non-kinetic weapon. China has not been held accountable by Any Nationstate.


I'm leery to even touch this one, but wouldn't that have to be proven to have been intentional for a sovereign nation to be held to account?


> 1. Take NATO acceptance off the table and make it clear to Zelensky that we are NOT going (intentionally) to full blown war on Ukraine behalf. BTW we may get there anyway because not very many Western leaders are dealing with a full deck.
> 2. Engage China, Turkey and France to meet with Russia (not just Putin) to fully understand the hard red lines outside of NATO membership. I say engage China and France and Turkey- but not US, because I truly believe we have fucked this up beyond repair across at least four Presidents.
> 3. Under ZERO circumstances support any cross border activity from NATO military into Ukraine.
> 4. Be prepared with a de-escalation plan when Russia shuts down the grid and attacks all inbound shipments from NATO countries.
> 5. Make it clear to Russia that not only will we continue to arm Ukraine until a settlement is obtained, but also make it clear to Ukraine that they cannot use NATO as a negotiating lever to blugeon Russia.


Has any of this been done?


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## buffnut453 (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine military is not known for shelling random civilian targets, they tend to be more conservative with their supply of munitions and save them for legimate targets.



Agree...the problem is that we have 13 deaths from "something." If Ukraine says it was Russia shelling the areas it occupies, then Kyiv starts to sound like Moscow (the latter did claim, early in the war, that Ukrainian forces were shelling their own towns and cities). 

Now, it's entirely possible that there were legitimate targets in the vicinity and the casualties were either collateral damage or due to some mistake on the part of the attacking force. As always, I'm trying to square the very partial (both in terms of limited quantity and in terms of bias) information we receive.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

It could also have been an effup in adjusting the arty coords, too. That the rounds fell short near a bus station is a horrible result of incompetence (no matter which side screwed up).

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## manta22 (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It could also have been an effup in adjusting the arty coords, too. That the rounds fell short near a bus station is a horrible result of incompetence (no matter which side screwed up).


When I was stationed in Germany in the early Sixties there was an accident at Graffenwoehr (sp?). An artillery unit was training on the range and a round landed short or long (I can't remember which) and landed in a bivouac area, killing quite a few US troops. It happens.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 19, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

drgondog said:


> 1. Take NATO acceptance off the table


If there’s any nation I want in NATO, a democratic, West-leaning nation that’s both on the front line with autocratic/expansionist Russia and demonstrably capable of kicking its ass, it’s Ukraine. 

I’d expel the useless, fence-sitting Turks in exchange for Ukraine.

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> South Korea, probably. I wish Ukraine to strengthen its military cooperation with the East. With the "western" East... Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei, Singapore - there is a lot to share and to learn from each other.


If you are thinking of things such as the T-50 family remember that they still incorporate significant quantities of US ITAR controlled material.

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

Russia 'not as capable as people thought' says Biden as Ukraine assault continues


Volodymyr Zelenskyy says there will be "no lull" as Ukraine prepares for a fresh offensive into occupied territory and accuses Russia of bombing an area near a nuclear power plant.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

Zelenskyy vows there will be no 'lull' in effort to free all of Ukraine


President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has listed towns Ukraine has taken back in its push across the north-east after Russian shells hit towns and cities over the weekend.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

Germany agrees the sale to Ukraine of 18 RCH 155 155mm self-propelled howitzers | Defense News September 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


Germany agrees on the delivery to Ukraine of 18 RCH-155, 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzers manufactured by the German company Kraus-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

Aid Earmarked for Ukraine Includes Cold Weather Gear


The latest $600 million transfer of U.S. military assistance approved by President Biden brings the total given to Ukraine to $15.1 billion since Russia's unprovoked invasion, Pentagon Press Secretary



www.defense.gov

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Germany agrees *the sale* to Ukraine of 18 RCH 155 155mm self-propelled howitzers


Tanks, you bloody Boches.... Ukraine needs tanks. Send Leopard 2s now.

As for the howitzers? Germany is *selling them* to Ukraine rather than donating them? Were all the delays of lethal aid from Germany caused because they wanted payment?

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If there’s any nation I want in NATO, a democratic, West-leaning nation that’s both on the front line with autocratic/expansionist Russia and demonstrably capable of kicking its ass, it’s Ukraine.
> 
> I’d expel the useless, fence-sitting Turks in exchange for Ukraine.


Or how about useless, Putler-worshipping Viktor Orban and his Magyar horde?
They got their butts kicked by Russkiy Mir in 1957 and have little appetite for a rematch.

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## Denniss (Sep 19, 2022)

The RCH 155 are bought from the german defense industry. Just today it was announced that germany would send four more Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine, taken from Bundeswehr stocks.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 19, 2022)

About Kherson

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

GTX said:


>



If only the camera holder hadn't been inflicted with VVS.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> About Kherson



The weird thing is I knew where the Dnipro is before I looked at the map. Am I the only one who now knows Ukraine better than their own state?

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## GTX (Sep 19, 2022)

One who I have posted a few articles from has been Mick Tyan, retired Army General. Here is his latest from Ukraine:






I just met President Volodymyr Zelensky, an even larger presence than social media suggests







amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The weird thing is I knew where the Dnipro is before I looked at the map. Am I the only one who now knows Ukraine better than their own state?


Heck, your own state is bigger than some countries. Try driving from Montauk to Angola someday (with a stop in Massena). We sure have had a lesson in Ukrainian
geography, though. As we have in Vietnam, Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan, and assorted other garden spots too numerous to mention. World geography, one battlefield at a time.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Germany agrees the sale to Ukraine of 18 RCH 155 155mm self-propelled howitzers | Defense News September 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> Germany agrees on the delivery to Ukraine of 18 RCH-155, 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzers manufactured by the German company Kraus-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
> ...


I would belive it when I see them in the frontline

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> About Kherson




To follow up on this, from ISW's webpage:

_
*Russian forces are likely attempting to conduct a more deliberate and controlled withdrawal in western Kherson Oblast to avoid the chaotic flight that characterized the collapse of Russian defensive positions in Kharkiv Oblast earlier this month. *The Russians have heavily reinforced western Kherson Oblast over the past several months including with airborne units and at least some elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army.[11] These ostensibly more professional and well-trained and equipped units are concentrated in a small area in Kherson Oblast and were prepared for the expected counteroffensive. They appear to be performing significantly better than Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainians destroyed a number of units of the 1st Guards Tank Army in Kharkiv Oblast, putting them to flight and capturing large amounts of high-quality equipment. The worse performance of professional Russian soldiers in Kharkiv Oblast compared with those in Kherson Oblast may be due to the thinner concentration of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast as well as the fact that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast appeared to surprise the Russian defenders.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast is nevertheless making progress, and Russian forces appear to be attempting to slow it and fall back to more defensible positions rather than stop it cold or reverse it. Continuous Ukrainian attacks on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across the Dnipro River to western Kherson Oblast appear to be having increasing effects on Russian supplies on the right bank—recent reports indicate shortages of food and water in Russian-occupied Kherson City and at least a temporary slackening of Russian artillery fire. Poor-quality proxy units have collapsed in some sectors of the Russian front lines, moreover, allowing Ukrainian advances. Ukrainian forces remain likely to regain much if not all of western Kherson Oblast in the coming weeks if they continue to interdict Russian GLOCs and press their advance. Ukrainian gains may continue to be slow if the Russian troops can retain their coherence but could also accelerate significantly if Russian forces begin to break._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The RCH 155 are bought from the german defense industry. Just today it was announced that germany would send four more Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine, taken from Bundeswehr stocks.



Yeah, name me a private company in the defense industry anywhere in the world that will “donate” military equipment for free. Military equipment is built for profit, not out of the kindness of their hearts.

Any equipment that is donated is from a country’s military stock.

Maybe the Maple Head’s defense industry company’s should start building tanks for Ukraine for free and show everyone how its done.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Oh and American’s actually eat more cabbage than the Germans. Maybe they should be called the Boche instead.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, name me a private company in the defense industry anywhere in the world that will “donate” military equipment for free.


I doubt you'll fine one, not any that wants to stay in business for long. But the above is the first article reporting that Ukraine is being sold lethal aid rather than having it donated by the manufacturer's government. Of course that government must then pay the manufacturer elsewise it will founder, but that's different than waiting for a COD from Kyiv.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt you'll fine one, not any that wants to stay in business for long. But the above is the first article reporting that Ukraine is being sold lethal aid rather than having it donated by the manufacturer's government. Of course that government must then pay the manufacturer elsewise it will founder, but that's different than waiting for a COD from Kyiv.



Yes, and you will not find much for new equipment being donated. Almost everything has been old military stocks. Not many governments are going purchase new equipment and donate it when they can fill their own stocks with the latest and greatest.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

We should send Ukraine western bloc tanks and equipment just so I can tell the sides apart more easily.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 19, 2022)

There have been a number of private companies that have donated equipment to the Ukrainians. Baykar donated 3 drones and turned down crowdfunding money for them. Both Remington and Ammo Inc each donated a millions rounds of ammo. I remember some manufacturer was donating body armor, but I don't recall their name.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, name me a private company in the defense industry anywhere in the world that will “donate” military equipment for free. Military equipment is built for profit, not out of the kindness of their hearts.
> 
> Any equipment that is donated is from a country’s military stock.
> 
> Maybe the Maple Head’s defense industry company’s should start building tanks for Ukraine for free and show everyone how its done.



And it's entirely possible that given the chronic underfunding of the _Bundeswehr_, it may well be that they don't have stocks for donation. 

I'm not a big fan of recriminations between Allies. I wish the Germans could and would provide more, but if they can't, they can't. Their rethinking of their energy situation is also a sacrifice, being made by the German population as a whole, which while being in the economic sphere, will still pay dividends.

And as I mentioned upthread, the Gepards which escorted the Ukrainian offensive forces helped to restrict the Russian air force in its attempts to slow the roll.

We're all working together, let's keep it on that plane.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> There have been a number of private companies that have donated equipment to the Ukrainians. Baykar donated 3 drones and turned down crowdfunding money for them. Both Remington and Ammo Inc each donated a millions rounds of ammo. I remember some manufacturer was donating body armor, but I don't recall their name.



Yes, but these companies are far and few between. Profit over anything else. Capitalism 101.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We're all working together, let's keep it on that plane.



Agreed 100%.

Having said that, I do wish the Germans would do more. I’m skeptical of good ole Olaf’s intent and take anything he says with a grain of salt.

Having said that there are many countries that could step up more. If they can that is. Not every country has a defense budget or GDP the size of the US.









Infographic: Where Military Aid to Ukraine Comes From


This chart shows the countries pledging most arms/weapons transfers to Ukraine, Jan 24 to Oct 3, 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars).




www.statista.com





(Statista data updated September 8, 2022)

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Also one has to look at the % of GDP. In theory Estonia is providing more aid than anyone when you take % of GDP. Estonia is providing 0.8% of its GDP in military aid. Poland is 0.3%. The US and England are 0.1% each. Germany is a lowly 0.03% and Canada is not much better with 0.06%.









Infographic: Where Military Aid to Ukraine Comes From


This chart shows the countries pledging most arms/weapons transfers to Ukraine, Jan 24 to Oct 3, 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars).




www.statista.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Estonia is providing 0.8% of its GDP in military aid. Poland is 0.3%


Because they know they're next. Any nation with Russians must be wary. 

Heck, Pikesville, Maryland has 19.30% Russians..... but I jest re. USA. These States on Russia's border that has large Russian minorities have to be wary.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Because they know they're next. Any nation with Russians must be wary.
> 
> Heck, Pikesville, Maryland has 19.30% Russians..... but I jest re. USA. These States on Russia's border that has large Russian minorities have to be wary.



I think that plays a huge part. 

Someone was alluding the other day why this was so important, why it was important for other countries to aid Ukraine, and what victory for the US looked like. 

Well this is it. Ask Poland and Estonia. If Russia succeeds here, they will look beyond Ukraine’s borders. Essentially this is the war that never broke out during the cold war with Ukraine not Germany being the front line. If Ukraine loses now, the rest of will surely be fighting tomorrow.

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## gumbyk (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yes, but these companies are far and few between. Profit over anything else. Capitalism 101.


ITAR probably has something to say about that too.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Someone was alluding the other day why this was so important....


When Ukraine takes back all its territory I think they'll be inclined to follow Russia's example from when they took Königsberg and northern East Prussia to create the Kaliningrad Oblast. They rounded up all the German-speakers and pushed them across the German border. Or when the USA defeated the British, and everyone loyal to Britain was forced to leave for Canada or elsewhere. You're either with us or must leave....

If the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine prefer to be Russians rather than Ukrainians, then let it be so... in Russia. And it's not about language, there are millions of loyal Ukrainians who speak only/mainly Russian - it was forced upon them by the occupiers. We've seen videos of these Russian-speaking civilians welcoming their UAF liberators. They know what side is best.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> ITAR probably has something to say about that too.



Absolutely correct!


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## gumbyk (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Absolutely correct!


Doesn't matter what the company wants to donate, if the US Government don't want it sent, it can't be.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> When Ukraine takes back all its territory I think they'll be inclined to follow Russia's example from when they took Königsberg and northern East Prussia to create the Kaliningrad Oblast. They rounded up all the German-speakers and pushed them across the German border. Or when the USA defeated the British, and everyone loyal to Britain was forced to leave for Canada or elsewhere. You're either with us or must leave....
> 
> If the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine prefer to be Russians rather than Ukrainians, then let it be so... in Russia. And it's not about language, there are millions of loyal Ukrainians who speak only/mainly Russian - it was forced upon them by the occupiers. We've seen videos of these Russian-speaking civilians welcoming their UAF liberators. They know what side is best.



I suspect you're right, though it pleases me not one bit to say so. Those circumstances, if it comes to the situation here, are ripe for abuse, especially in the aftermath of such a bitter war.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh and American’s actually eat more cabbage than the Germans. Maybe they should be called the Boche instead.



In Germany's defense, Americans pretty much eat more everything than everyone.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> In Germany's defense, Americans pretty much eat more everything than everyone.


The U.S. has a population of 332 million, Germany's population is 84 million.

So there is a good chance that more cabbage, brats and brezln are consumed in America by virtue of it's population being nearly 4 times that of Germany...

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yes, but these companies are far and few between. Profit over anything else. Capitalism 101.


It is also a legal requirement of corporations to work on behalf of their stockholders and essentially maximize profit.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> In Germany's defense, Americans pretty much eat more everything than everyone.


...and with ketchup! 🤮

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It is also a legal requirement of corporations to work on behalf of their stockholders and essentially maximize profit.



No disagreement

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The U.S. has a population of 332 million, Germany's population is 84 million.
> 
> So there is a good chance that more cabbage, brats and brezln are consumed in America by virtue of it's population being nearly 4 times that of Germany...



No I am meaning in general. American’s go “I’m eating German tonight! Brats with Sauerkraut (and usually that nasty stuff that comes in a can).” German’s be like “Waaassss????”

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> In Germany's defense, Americans pretty much eat more everything than everyone.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> View attachment 687817



Ron is not wrong…


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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Also one has to look at the % of GDP. In theory Estonia is providing more aid than anyone when you take % of GDP. Estonia is providing 0.8% of its GDP in military aid. Poland is 0.3%. The US and England are 0.1% each. Germany is a lowly 0.03% and Canada is not much better with 0.06%.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Is Lichtenstein pulling its weight?

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It is also a legal requirement of corporations to work on behalf of their stockholders and essentially maximize profit.


Tax write-off. Dump old inventory. Win-win.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

I know, right? I mean c'mon, we're using F-16s for target practice! Send a few of them to the Ukrainian Air Force maintenance school. 

We should also unload those B-36s gathering dust.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> We should also unload those B-36s gathering dust.


Just four left. But I bet there a hundreds of other suitable strike aircraft in the American desert waiting for renewed life and purpose, like these F-16s below.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

100 F-16s and 100 A-10s. This is doable!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just four left. But I bet there a hundreds of other suitable strike aircraft in the American desert waiting for renewed life and purpose, like these F-16s below.
> 
> View attachment 687834


That's what I mean. At least send a couple to Ukraine's aviation mechanics schools. Get them started.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is Lichtenstein pulling its weight?


They provided 500,000 (Swiss Francs) in humanitarian aid - not bad for a nation of about 40,000 people!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> They provided 500,000 (Swiss Francs) in humanitarian aid - not bad for a nation of about 40,000 people!



They haven't given one single nuke, dammit. C'mon now!

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just four left. But I bet there a hundreds of other suitable strike aircraft in the American desert waiting for renewed life and purpose, like these F-16s below.
> 
> View attachment 687834



Before you start pointing at AMARC, some things to consider -

Many aircraft placed there (like these F-16s) are high time airframes. In some cases it's more economical to place them in storage rather than keep them operational, or in the end part them out and eventually scrap what's left. If the airframes are high time, it may not be economical (and in some cases dangerous) to try to pull them out of storage and then think you're going to give them "renewed life." Many of these aircraft are slated to be target drones, about the best thing that can be done to them. I worked on the QF-4 program many years ago and used to wonder why seemingly good combat aircraft were being droned until I got to look inside of them and learned what it would take to give them a useful few more years of life.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 19, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Before you start pointing at AMARC, some things to consider -
> 
> Many aircraft placed there (like these F-16s) are high time airframes. In some cases it's more economical to place them in storage rather than keep them operational, or in the end part them out and eventually scrap what's left. If the airframes are high time, it may not be economical (and in some cases dangerous) to try to pull them out of storage and then think you're going to give them "renewed life." Many of these aircraft are slated to be target drones, about the best thing that can be done to them. I worked on the QF-4 program many years ago and used to wonder why seemingly good combat aircraft were being droned until I got to look inside of them and learned what it would take to give them a useful few more years of life.
> 
> ...


I may have been misunderstood. I’m saying send a few complete planes and knock them down for shipment to Ukraine. They can’t be flown. No pilots, no ground crews nor related equipment. They will have a couple of F-16s for the mechanics to start poking around with. No fuel, no runways, bowsers required. I forgot about bowsers. Maybe a couple of those? I can’t see national security being compromised by not splattering 2 more jets over the dessert.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They will have a couple of F-16s for the mechanics to start poking around with. No fuel, no runways, bowsers required.



Dunno what the US term for such things are, but the Brits call them Instructional Airframes. The whole British aviation museum scene is made up of ex-RAF/RN instructional airframes!

This Jaaaag was at the technical training school at RAF Cosford for years but is now on display at the RAF Museum.




RAFM 79

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I may have been misunderstood. I’m saying send a few complete planes and knock them down for shipment to Ukraine. They can’t be flown. No pilots, no ground crews nor related equipment. They will have a couple of F-16s for the mechanics to start poking around with. No fuel, no runways, bowsers required. I forgot about bowsers. Maybe a couple of those? I can’t see national security being compromised by not splattering 2 more jets over the dessert.


Nothing wrong with that until they have viable airframes to actually deploy

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

We took every opportunity to familiarize ourselves with any new airplane that came onto the apron. We'd grab the T.O. (105-E-9 iirc) on the plane, and one of our NCOs who'd served on a base hosting those a/c would give us a walk-through.

The only funny one was the F-117, because we had no sergeants in 1991 who'd worked a -117 flightline. The obscure small cargo/VIP transport planes too, we didn't have anyone who knew them. But for the main combat airframes, we had a firefighter who could school us on the roster. C-5, KC-10 as well, we had a wealth of knowledge in the station.

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## nuuumannn (Sep 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The only funny one was the F-117, because we had no sergeants in 1991 who'd worked a -117 flightline.



Finding the maintenance access panels would have been a bugger...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> Finding the maintenance access panels would have been a bugger...



I'll have to take your word for it, we weren't allowed any closer than 90 foot unless there was an emergency, and there never was. This was 1991 iirc, when one came to our airshow at Carswell. We were not allowed to do familiarization.


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## nuuumannn (Sep 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We were not allowed to do familiarization.



That's a shame, would have been an intriguing aeroplane to work on, I reckon. I've gotten close enough to touch one at an airshow only and the armed guards surrounding it looked a little too menacing to tempt it, although they graciously moved out of the way when we went to take photos!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

nuuumannn said:


> That's a shame, would have been an intriguing aeroplane to work on, I reckon. I've gotten close enough to touch one at an airshow only and the armed guards surrounding it looked a little too menacing to tempt it, although they graciously moved out of the way when we went to take photos!



The big thing I remember with that plane is that -- although SCBA was already mandatory on a CFR incident -- we were reminded again to not fight a -117 fire without bottled air. Something about the resins or paints used in its coating.

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## at6 (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> We should also unload those B-36s gathering dust.


There are only a couple of those left and they are in museums.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 20, 2022)

Only four B-36s remain.

Which is four more than the B-19 - I sure wish they had kept that as a museum piece, but it ended up being scrapped

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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

I was kind of joking about the B-36s.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 20, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Before you start pointing at AMARC, some things to consider -
> 
> Many aircraft placed there (like these F-16s) are high time airframes. In some cases it's more economical to place them in storage rather than keep them operational, or in the end part them out and eventually scrap what's left. If the airframes are high time, it may not be economical (and in some cases dangerous) to try to pull them out of storage and then think you're going to give them "renewed life." Many of these aircraft are slated to be target drones, about the best thing that can be done to them. I worked on the QF-4 program many years ago and used to wonder why seemingly good combat aircraft were being droned until I got to look inside of them and learned what it would take to give them a useful few more years of life.
> 
> ...


I meant to mention earlier - the F-16s seen at AMARC are very different from the F-16s being used operationally today, almost like 2 different aircraft.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 20, 2022)

Combat seems to be returning to the near static/incremental phase seen before the start of September, albeit with Ukraine now having strategic initative in several geographies.

For all the speculation about offensives in the lead up to Winter, I think that we're going to see this settling in phase for at least a few more weeks, possibly until the end of October. (I'd love to be proved wrong here though).

Ukraine needs to set up proper supply lines into the battles around Lyman, Sivers'k and Kupiansk. In addition, it will want to establish some fall back positions should Russia be able to turn a Ukrainian attack and conduct a counter offensive.

A part of the problem is that Russia's forward artillery positions are able to interdict Ukrainian supply columns moving southeast and east from positions established to support the initial Kharkiv offensive. (Russia also reportedly has the same problem, with units reinforcing positions around Kremenna, Lysychansk and Svatove subject to Ukranian long range artillery).

For Russia, it needs to stem Ukraine's incremental gains west of the Oskil (or risk the main supply line into northeast Ukraine being severed), assembling sufficient forces to look to push back some of the westward advances that threaten control of battlefields further to the south.

It will also look to defeat Ukraine's advances towards Kherson and the northern bank of the Dnipro. There were (Russian) reports of a strong counter-attack on the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets which may have pushed them back across (who knows though, mil bloggers on both sides get a little _enthusiastic _when reporting advances). Recent OPSINT reports show heavy losses of Russian artillery systems in this area [circa 16 mobile systems and 5 fixed guns] in the past 48 hours so its not all one way traffic. Ukraine, for its part, seems to be content widening the bridgehead east and west, rather than deepening the penetration.

I don't think that either side is going to be suckered into major shifts in emphasis any time soon.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Combat seems to be returning to the near static/incremental phase seen before the start of September, albeit with Ukraine now having strategic initative in several geographies.
> 
> For all the speculation about offensives in the lead up to Winter, I think that we're going to see this settling in phase for at least a few more weeks, possibly until the end of October. (I'd love to be proved wrong here though).
> 
> ...



Well, it rather depends on whether Ukrainian forces can consolidate their crossing of the Oskil River. According to reporting yesterday, they had taken the eastern bank. If they can hold onto that bridgehead, then they may elect to continue the offensive. Here's some more reporting on the Oskil River crossing and the general situation:









Ukraine troops focus on Donbas ‘de-occupation’ from Russia


Ukraine troops advance along the key Oskil River threatening Russian forces in the Donbas – Moscow’s prized territory.




www.aljazeera.com





It's a delicate balance between overstretching supply lines and keeping the enemy on the run. Pausing to build up your logistics and defences affords the enemy the opportunity to do likewise. It can also be difficult to hold forces back if the enemy retreats rapidly. Zelensky has said this isn't a lull, just a pause prior to the next phase of the counter-offensive:









Zelenskyy promises no let up in counteroffensive against Russia


Pledge comes as US calls for vigilance and the UK warns of more Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.




www.aljazeera.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

Again, I have no words:









Sri Lankans freed from Russian brutality in Ukraine


Seven Sri Lankans say Russian soldiers in Ukraine subjected them to beatings and other abuse.



www.bbc.com

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well, it rather depends on whether Ukrainian forces can consolidate their crossing of the Oskil River. According to reporting yesterday, they had taken the eastern bank. If they can hold onto that bridgehead, then they may elect to continue the offensive.



I'm strictly an armchair expert, but if I was looking for options to advance eastward I would want more than just a single bridge over the Oskil which remains within range of Russian tube artillery systems as my supply line. Shades of Market Garden in that.

If it was me, I'd be pushing south down the western bank of the Oskil, and I'd look to link up with the other possible crossing points. There are another two bridges that I understand are still crossable (or were last week) between Kupiansk and Izyum. Firmly establish one of those (I believe Ukraine has a toehold across the Oskil at Borova, but the area is heavily contested). Then I'd push out eastward somewhat to provide operational maneuver room.

Once a solid bridgehead is established, then there are multiple options. Drive east and threaten Svatove (a major Russian supply line nexus, with links from Belgorod and Voronezh), or continue more southward, walling off Svatove and threaten the rear of Russian positions in Lyman, Kreminna and Rubizhne, with the ultimate objective towards Severodonetsk. 

Alternatively, if Russian forces can be cleared from the towns at the nexus of the Sverski Donetsk and Oskil, then it may be possible to drive northwards and link up with the Kupiansk and Borova bridgeheads that way. That's a hard fight though, against Russian regulars and VDV with plenty of armour and artillery.

But, this is all the ramblings of an amateur. I hope the experts know what they're doing.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> I'm strictly an armchair expert, but if I was looking for options to advance eastward I would want more than just a single bridge over the Oskil which remains within range of Russian tube artillery systems as my supply line. Shades of Market Garden in that.
> 
> If it was me, I'd be pushing south down the western bank of the Oskil, and I'd look to link up with the other possible crossing points. There are another two bridges that I understand are still crossable (or were last week) between Kupiansk and Izyum. Firmly establish one of those (I believe Ukraine has a toehold across the Oskil at Borova, but the area is heavily contested). Then I'd push out eastward somewhat to provide operational maneuver room.
> 
> ...



Have you seen reporting that they've only crossed the Oskil at one location? Zelensky's reporting that Ukrainian forces essentially own the east bank of the river.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

Interesting update, not least Putin's comment that he wants the war to end soon.:









Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war


As Ukraine reclaims more land, the Turkish leader says Russia aims to end the war as soon as possible.



www.bbc.com





Another interesting tidbit in the article is Ukraine's claim that Russian forces have retreated to Bilohorivka, which suggests the push eastwards by the Ukrainian military is continuing.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> ...and with ketchup! 🤮



A1 Steak Sauce. Get it right…

Yuuuuuccckk!

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Have you seen reporting that they've only crossed the Oskil at one location? Zelensky's reporting that Ukrainian forces essentially own the east bank of the river.



I'm cautious - generally I'll only trust independently confirmed sources rather than politicians or propaganda mouthpieces on either side.

From what I can see, based on a fusion of pro-Russian and pro-Ukranian reporting, within Kharkiv Oblast Ukraine has one sizable, but contested bridge crossing at Kupiansk supported by an intact bridge and a couple of 'wet' crossing locations. Penetration there is ~5-6 km in depth and about twice that in width, with slow progress being made southward and even slower progress eastward. Then there's a second 'wet' crossing at Borova (reportedly good enough to get some armour across), which is heavily contested and about 1/3rd the size of the bridgehead at Kupiansk and is also making slow progress southward.

I'd say the the AFU have one established bridgehead and one tenuous bridgehead and they'll need fresh/rested forces at both locations to make any significant progress at either now that Russian reinforcements (fresh ones at that) are in these areas.

At the moment, the only way I can see Ukraine owning the east bank of the river (in Kharkiv Oblast) is if Russian forces decide to pull back and consolidate on a new line to defend Svatove. But if they did that, they would essentially have to abandon all positions north of the Sviersky Donetsk river that are west Kreminna.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 20, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Once a solid bridgehead is established, then there are multiple options. Drive east and threaten Svatove (a major Russian *supply line* nexus, with links from Belgorod and Voronezh...


It is amazing how versed and capable Ukraine is at appreciating and hitting Russian supply lines, with nearly four thousand trucks alone lost so far. This and the SIGINT-led precision targeting of Russian Generals shows how much the UAF has progressed from the Soviet-era. If there's any nation I want in NATO, who knows how to fight the Russians, it's Ukraine!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 20, 2022)

How much of that, however, is because of NATO training and intelligence, along with NATO providing strategy and targets of opportunity to Ukraine.

Don’t take me wrong. I will not take anything away from Ukraine. They are fighting one hell of a war, but NATO is fighting a proxy war through Ukraine as well.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 20, 2022)

_LONDON/KYIV, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Two Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week and an ally of President Vladimir Putin said the votes would alter the geopolitical landscape in Moscow's favour forever.

The move, which seriously escalates Moscow's standoff with the West, comes after Russia suffered a battlefield reversal in northeast Ukraine and as Putin ponders his next steps in a nearly seven-month-old conflict that has caused the most serious East-West rift since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Russian-backed, self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the neighbouring Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said the planned referendums would be held from Sept. 23-27.

In a post on social media addressed to Putin, DPR head Denis Pushilin wrote: "I ask you, as soon as possible, in the event of a positive decision in the referendum - which we have no doubt about - to consider the DPR becoming a part of Russia."


Earlier on Tuesday, Russian-installed officials in the southern Kherson region, where Moscow's forces control around 95% of the territory, said they had also decided to hold a referendum. Pro-Russian authorities in part of Ukraine's Zaporizhia region were expected to follow suit. read more_









Ukraine says residents coerced into Russian annexation vote


Russia on Friday aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, raising the stakes of the seven-month-old war in what Kyiv called a sham that saw residents threatened with punishment if they did not vote.




www.reuters.com





And here's ISW's take on that:

_*Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia's proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine's ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.* The legislatures of Russia's proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to "immediately" hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.[1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the "Crimean scenario." She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, "untying Russia's hands in all respects."[2]_







Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

More reporting by liberated Ukrainians of Russian torture against prisoners:









'Walls full of pain': Russia's torture cells in Ukraine


The BBC's Orla Guerin meets survivors of atrocities in the ruined, recaptured city of Izyum.



www.bbc.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 20, 2022)

American Tanks For Ukraine Are 'Absolutely On The Table'


There is already speculation about the possibility of U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks heading to Ukraine, but there are other potential options.




www.thedrive.com

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It is also a legal requirement of corporations to work on behalf of their stockholders and essentially maximize profit.


What law is that??


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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

UK's Liz Truss pledges to match Ukraine aid next year as she leaves royal mourning behind


British prime minister praises Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 'inspirational' troops as she announces more support




www.thenationalnews.com

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

U.S. Official Says Russia Has Failed to Achieve Strategic Objectives


Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has failed to achieve any of his strategic objectives in launching Russia's brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a senior defense official said on background.



www.defense.gov

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

Ukraine to get 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia


Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have agreed on the transfer of 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine, with Slovenia expected to receive 40 German-made transport vehicles in exchange. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

Ukraine dismisses Russia's 'sham' referendum plan to annex separatist-held territories in country's east


Russian-backed officials across 15 per cent of Ukraine's territory have requested referendums to join Russia, in what appears to be choreographed moves by separatist groups.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

'Mutual support and cooperation': Russia seeks closer security ties with China


A top Russian security official and close associate of Vladimir Putin says Moscow wants to improve security cooperation with Beijing as a top policy goal.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

Today's candidate for the stupidest rant: Top Russian propagandist says Vladimir Putin 'should have nuked Queen's funeral'

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

'The Russians will use chemical weapons', expert warns

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

I can't read the full article because it's behind a paywall but The Times is reporting Ukraine has captured a Russian T-90M tank intact. This is an absolute GIFT to Western intelligence agencies.

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

Deoccupation of Ukraine 'not far away' as Zelenskyy focuses on speed of troops


In a sign of nervousness from a Moscow-backed administration in Donbas about the success of Ukraine's offensive, its leader calls for urgent referendums on the region becoming part of Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> What law is that??


I believe it's "fiduciary duty" and has roots in Olde English law.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe it's "fiduciary duty" and has roots in Olde English law.



Look at you using 50-cent words. Impressed I am!

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I can't read the full article because it's behind a paywall but The Times is reporting Ukraine has captured a Russian T-90M tank intact. This is an absolute GIFT to Western intelligence agencies.


If they can wrestle it away from the farmer.

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I can't read the full article because it's behind a paywall but The Times is reporting Ukraine has captured a Russian T-90M tank intact. This is an absolute GIFT to Western intelligence agencies.

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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe it's "fiduciary duty" and has roots in Olde English law.


You might find that it isn't so clear cut and that one could argue that maximising profit doesn't fall under such.









Breach Of Fiduciary Duties | Owen Hodge Lawyers


What does a breach of fiduciary duty mean & what are the penalties? Read on to learn more about the fiduciary duties of directors & officers in Australia.




www.owenhodge.com.au





But I digress...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


>




Brilliant! Thanks for sharing. Who needs extensive articles behind paywalls when you can get stuff like this.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 20, 2022)

It defies logic how these separatist states think they can allow their illegally seized territories to become annexed by Russia.

No matter, Ukraine will just "annex" it back, anyway...

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 20, 2022)

For the resident tankers. The M-55S have real frontline use yet? T-55 refurbished in 1999 seems wordt than the russian T-62 at first sight.



GTX said:


> Ukraine to get 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia
> 
> 
> Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have agreed on the transfer of 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine, with Slovenia expected to receive 40 German-made transport vehicles in exchange. — Ukrinform.
> ...


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## GTX (Sep 20, 2022)

Some info on the M-55S:









The M-55S tank: a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 for the Armed Forces • Mezha.Media


Slovenia transfers 28 of its own M-55S tanks to Ukraine. This is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 tank.




mezha.media

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some info on the M-55S:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sigh. That’s a step backwards. What’s next for the UAF, Ishermans?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some info on the M-55S:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Much better option than the T-62 indeed, thanks.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

Wasn't sure whether to put this in the Ukraine thread or the jokes thread....but it wasn't that funny so I threw it in here.



I guess we should all be glad that the UK wasn't turned into a glass-bottomed swimming pool yesterday. What a peaceful bunch those nice Russians are!!!!!

For 

 drgondog
,, the US may be reviled but please note that Britain is "the root of all evil." The Russian guy in the above video clip said so!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It defies logic how these separatist states think they can allow their illegally seized territories to become annexed by Russia.
> 
> No matter, Ukraine will just "annex" it back, anyway...


It’s a slippery precedent too. There are hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese in Russia’s mostly undefended Far East. Does Russia want to show China how to take territory through sham referenda?

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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> You might find that it isn't so clear cut and that one could argue that maximising profit doesn't fall under such.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm not arguing anything. Take it up with an attorney familiar with American corporate law. I'm not.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sigh. That’s a step backwards. What’s next for the UAF, Ishermans?



At least I could tell which side was which.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Look at you using 50-cent words. Impressed I am!


And look at the trouble it caused me!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sigh. That’s a step backwards. What’s next for the UAF, Ishermans?



Step backwards?

The M-55 S1 has been completely modernized and up-gunned to the point that it only has looks in common with the T-55.

Optics, gunnery computer, ERA armor (provided by Israel), new suspension, higher HP engine, larger caliber cannon, LIRD defense system, Israeli smoke grenade system and much more.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> At least I could tell which side was which.


That's easy, really.

If it's being towed by a tractor, it's Russian.

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## gumbyk (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm not arguing anything. Take it up with an attorney familiar with American corporate law. I'm not.


Fiducary duty is the duty of directors duty to _the company_, not necessarily shareholders.
In this example, directors may decide it is better for the company, in the long run, to take a moral stance rather than seeking to maximise short-term profits. Especially when they are then able to sell 'battle-proven' military hardware.

But, this is all a moot point, as ITAR means that the company doesn't have the option of unilaterally sending arms anywhere.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 20, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> But, this is all a moot point, as ITAR means that the company doesn't have the option of unilaterally sending arms anywhere.



This is correct. Things such as NIGHT VISION devices (for example) fall under the ITAR and are not allowed to be exported.

You cannot even take a laptop or a thumb drive with information on ITAR items or products outside of the country, because that counts as an “export.”

As a defense contractor (like all defense contractors) we take annual ITAR compliance training.

Heck at my last job, our SAR helicopter crews used NVGs and when we sent SAR crews to support offshore drilling operations in South America they had to fly “night unaided” without NVGs because taking the NVGs to Brazil, Columbia, or Suriname for example would have constituted an export under ITAR rules even though we were not selling them.

I am certain ITAR laws play a role in what is allowed to be donated to Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 20, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> Fiducary duty is the duty of directors….

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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> View attachment 688035


Thanks, man!


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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Step backwards?
> 
> The M-55 S1 has been completely modernized and up-gunned to the point that it only has looks in common with the T-55.
> 
> Optics, gunnery computer, ERA armor (provided by Israel), new suspension, higher HP engine, larger caliber cannon, LIRD defense system, Israeli smoke grenade system and much more.



But wait....order in the next 30 minutes and we'll throw in a Boxer IFV for every five M-55 S1s you purchase.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> What law is that??



In Australia, the 2001 Corporations Act (and before that, similar acts passed right back to the late 1930s). The law states that directors are required to work in the best interests of the company. Courts have historically interpreted that as the shareholders' interests first. Implicitly in cases from the 1950s onwards, and then explicitly in cases from the late 1980s onwards. 

(My father in law is the former chairman of a major commercial law firm).

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## SaparotRob (Sep 20, 2022)

_It slices, dices, peels and grates!_

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## GrauGeist (Sep 20, 2022)

What the Slovenians did with their old T-55s is actually quite impressive - it will be interesting to see how these M-55s do against Russian elements.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> _It slices, dices, peels and grates!_



I definitely grate…just ask anyone who’s had the misfortune to meet me.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some info on the M-55S:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Given the Russian propensity for running, I'm not sure they'll be taking the time to ID the tanks first.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 20, 2022)

I get how it’s supposed to work. But ERA-evading top-attack strikes aside, does explosive reactive armour ever work against modern antitank missiles?

None of the West’s current tanks (Abrams, Challenger 2, Leopard 2, Leclerc, Ariete, Merkava, Korean K2, Japanese Type 10, etc) use ERA, AFAIK. Presumably because ERA was considered ineffective and/or their composite ceramic armour DOES work against modern projectiles.


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## at6 (Sep 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> A1 Steak Sauce. Get it right…
> 
> Yuuuuuccckk!


Even Orc is better with A1 sauce.

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## at6 (Sep 21, 2022)

Referendums on becoming part of Russia are nothing more than Russians stealing territory. They said the outcome would be guaranteed. That absolutely means rigged and therefore invalid to any right thinking person.

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## ThomasP (Sep 21, 2022)

re effectiveness of ERA

'Reactive Armour' in general is primarily designed to reduce the potential penetration ability of the AT weapon.

A RPG-7 or LAW, for example, could relatively easily penetrate the side armour of vehicles like the cold-war era T-55 and M60 series tanks. The ERA later fitted to these vehicles is quite capable of reducing the penetration of the RPG-7 or LAW to the point where the original cast homogeneous side armour would not be perforated.

More modern and sophisticated versions of reactive armour are capable of much greater reduction in penetration, some of the systems making it difficult for the more modern AT-4/Carl Gustav class of weapons to successfully perforate the sides of an ERA protected T-55 or M60 class vehicle. The current Ukrainian Kontakt-5 ERA will reduce the penetration of a weapon in the RPG-7 class by about 95%, and the AT-4 dual warhead class by 60%.

The reason it sometimes seems like the Russian ERA is ineffective is that it is being attacked by warheads that have much greater penetrative capability than the ERA is designed to reduce. The original Dragon ATGM was capable of about 20" of penetration vs standard good quality RHA, while the original TOW could do about 25". The early ERA that was intended to stop the RPG-7 or LAW was relatively useless against the Dragon and TOW when fired at the side of the T-55 or M60. But when fired against the front of the tanks fitted with ERA the early Dragon and TOW warheads were often defeated. The next generation of tanks with more sophisticated armour schemes (such as steel/ceramic/steel sandwich) were almost immune to the early Dragon and TOW from the front - if hit in the areas covered by the ERA and 'sandwich' armour.

With the new top attack warheads, many of which have penetrations in the same range as the early Dragon and TOW, even a reduction of 60% still leaves a residual effective penetration of 8"-10" - far more than the roof armour on any current AFV. And the current ATGM warheads are significantly more capable of penetration than the early Dragon and TOW. The current TOW II for example is listed as having over 35" of penetration in the horizontal attack mode. The Javelin (with a dual or tandem warhead) is listed as having over 24" of penetration in the top attack mode.

It should be noted that most of the ERA in use is optimized vs horizontal attacks. In theory, if the ERA was optimized vs top attack weapons it would be more effective against the current top attack weapons, but that would reduce its effectiveness vs horizontal attacks.

It should also be noted that some of the more sophisticated reactive armours can have a significant effect vs long-rod kinetic energy penetrators.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 21, 2022)

Here's another incredibly brave Russian (unusually for me I'm not being sarcastic). Given attempts to recruit convicts into the military, I shudder to think of the reception he'll get in prison. I found his speech, which may truly be his last on earth, very moving:









Russian official Alexei Gorinov jailed for criticising Ukraine war gives final moving speech


The 60-year-old uses his last remarks, which you can read in full below, to accuse Moscow of wreaking destruction in the European country




www.telegraph.co.uk





Imagine living in a country where you can be imprisoned for 7 years for "discrediting the armed forces." That means the military has no forcing function to hold it accountable. Ironically, such an approach usually leads to lowering standards rather than elevating the standing of the military. Perhaps that's what we're seeing in Ukraine. Although the "discrediting" law is recent, Putin has promoted military strength throughout his reign of increasing terror. If the military is accountable to nobody, then there's no motivation to correct faults and make it improve.

I salute Mr. Gorinov and pray he survives his coming ordeal so he can see Putin's dictatorship in ashes.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> Referendums on becoming part of Russia are nothing more than Russians stealing territory. They said the outcome would be guaranteed. That absolutely means rigged and therefore invalid to any right thinking person.


How many "right thinking persons" do you suppose there are in the Russian hierarchy?


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## buffnut453 (Sep 21, 2022)

Apparently Putin has ordered a partial mobilization, calling up reservists:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-62970683

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 21, 2022)

Western and Russia sources saying an initial 300,000 troops to be called up, with more to be decided on later.

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## at6 (Sep 21, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> How many "right thinking persons" do you suppose there are in the Russian hierarchy?


Zero. They're all terrorists.


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## Snautzer01 (Sep 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> Zero. They're all terrorists.


Now now now ... there are some maffiosi too.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Western and Russia sources saying an initial 300,000 troops to be called up, with more to be decided on later.


Poor devils. How many of these 300,000 newbs will have any relevant training, modern kit or credible leadership? Lambs to the slaughter. I wouldn‘t be surprised if their mothers protest and block the assembly depots. It was the rage of mothers that was the biggest risk to Putin when the submarine Kursk went down.


at6 said:


> Referendums on becoming part of Russia are nothing more than Russians stealing territory.


I expect Ukraine special ops to expedite its killing of separatist leaders and referendum organizers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

_
LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday called up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and backed a plan to annex parts of the country, hinting to the West he was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.

It was Russia's first such mobilisation since World War Two and signified the biggest escalation of the Ukraine war since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion.

[...]

In an address to the Russian nation, Putin said: "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will use all available means to protect our people - this is not a bluff". Russia had "lots of weapons to reply", he said.

[...]

He accused Washington, London, Brussels of pushing Kyiv to "transfer military operations to our territory". Ukraine has sporadically struck targets inside Russia throughout the conflict, using long-range weapons supplied by the West.

"Nuclear blackmail has also been used," Putin said, citing Ukraine's Zaporozhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of endangering the plant in the fighting.

[...]

The Russian opposition called for street protests against Putin's mobilisation order.

Alexei Navalny, Russia's most prominent opposition leader who is currently in prison, said Putin was sending more Russians to their death for a failing war.

The Vesna anti-war coalition said: "This means that thousands of Russian men - our fathers, brothers and husbands - will be thrown into the meat grinder of war."_









Ukraine says residents coerced into Russian annexation vote


Russia on Friday aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, raising the stakes of the seven-month-old war in what Kyiv called a sham that saw residents threatened with punishment if they did not vote.




www.reuters.com





"This is not a bluff" ... sure.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 21, 2022)

Various OPSINT and Russian military observers report the likely first wave of conscription will be NCOs and various types of trained specialists who have left the services in the last 5 years.

Logistics is also likely to be a major user of conscripted manpower.

Reports are also filtering in that doctors with military training and other battlefield medical types could also be an early priority.

Combat ready troops are considered unlikely to see front line service for at least three to four weeks, at the earliest.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Various OPSINT and Russian military observers report the likely first wave of conscription will be NCOs


Are Russian NCOs of any use?









NCOs: America Has Them, China Wants Them, Russia is Struggling Without Them


Non-commissioned officers, long the “backbone” of the U.S. military, are proving even more crucial on modern battlefields.




www.defenseone.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)

That was one of the main advantages the US had over the Soviet Union during the cold war. The US had (and still does) a robust NCO corps. There is a reason the US Army calls the NCO the backbone of the Army.

In the Russian military you take out the officers and the enlisted troops are lost. They cannot function effectively. In the US military, while the officers give orders, it is the NCO that makes it all happen.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That was one of the main advantages the US had over the Soviet Union during the cold war. The US had (and still does) a robust NCO corps. There is a reason the US Army calls the NCO the backbone of the Army. In the Russian military you take out the officers and the enlisted troops are lost. They cannot function effectively. In the US military, while the officers give orders, it is the NCO that makes it all happen.


I think it's difficult for a dictatorship to encourage adaptable and independent thinking from its enlisted men. Did the Nazis figure this out, I suspect their NCOs were good? 

As for the Russians: _"Do what we tell you, unquestionably, at fear of dire punishment or death... but now you're a NCO, so use your imagination, intuition and leadership abilities to adapt and overcome?"_

I can't imagine Russian generals giving the advice below to new officers.









13 Tips for New Lieutenants from a Former SOCOM Commander - Modern War Institute


Editor’s note: This month, around the United States, cadets at service academies and ROTC programs are commissioning and taking the next step in their careers as members of the profession […]




mwi.usma.edu





*1. At your first meeting with your first platoon sergeant:*

Shut the door, tell him or her, "I think I've had a pretty good preparation to be a PL, but before I do anything, how about you tell me what you expect of me?" If they are good, and most of them are very good—and you aren't the first or last PL they'll have the privilege of serving with—they'll say, "Be our leader, make the tough decisions, don't try to be our buddy (we may eventually like you, but that's not the objective), enforce the standards." (And, while they may never say it, you can take to the bank that they will strive to never let you fail). You may be an LT, but you are _their_ LT.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)

The NCO Creed

No one is more professional than I. I am a noncommissioned officer, a leader of Soldiers. As a noncommissioned officer, I realize that I am a member of a time honored corps, which is known as "The Backbone of the Army". I am proud of the Corps of noncommissioned officers and will at all times conduct myself so as to bring credit upon the Corps, the military service and my country regardless of the situation in which I find myself. I will not use my grade or position to attain pleasure, profit, or personal safety.

Competence is my watchword. My two basic responsibilities will always be uppermost in my mind—accomplishment of my mission and the welfare of my Soldiers. I will strive to remain technically and tactically proficient. I am aware of my role as a noncommissioned officer. I will fulfill my responsibilities inherent in that role. All Soldiers are entitled to outstanding leadership; I will provide that leadership. I know my Soldiers and I will always place their needs above my own. I will communicate consistently with my Soldiers and never leave them uninformed. I will be fair and impartial when recommending both rewards and punishment.

Officers of my unit will have maximum time to accomplish their duties; they will not have to accomplish mine. I will earn their respect and confidence as well as that of my Soldiers. I will be loyal to those with whom I serve; seniors, peers, and subordinates alike. I will exercise initiative by taking appropriate action in the absence of orders. I will not compromise my integrity, nor my moral courage. I will not forget, nor will I allow my comrades to forget that we are professionals, noncommissioned officers, leaders!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ...could also allow for training on Western weapons-systems such as Abrams..


I wonder if Ukraine will get Abrams. I sometimes forget how big Ukraine is, as the largest country in Europe (77% of Russia is in Asia), it would takes ages for parts and service of Abrams tanks to get from Poland to the front.

Why does so much support to Ukraine come via Poland? There are other NATO members closer to the front in Ukraine, mainly Romania and Slovakia. Perhaps it's that Poland has ports for shipping by sea.

And what's NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania's Black Sea navies up to these days?


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 21, 2022)

A few hours after announcing mobilization ....









Massive sale of flights to leave Russia after Putin's partial mobilization order - Today Times Live


Direct tickets from Moscow to Istanbul, in Turkey, and Yerevan, in Armenia, both destinations Russians can enter without a visa, are sold outOutbound flights from Russia sold out quickly on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate partial mobilization of 300,000...




todaytimeslive.com













Tickets to leave Russia are sold out after the mobilization of 300,000 reservists who will fight in Ukraine


The President of Russia affirms that “liberating the entire territory of Donbas from the yoke of kyiv remains the immovable goal”The Russian president has taken a step forward in his of…




time.news

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if Ukraine will get Abrams. I sometimes forget how big Ukraine is, as the largest country in Europe (77% of Russia is in Asia), it would takes ages for parts and service of Abrams tanks to get from Poland to the front.
> 
> Why does so much support to Ukraine come via Poland? There are other NATO members closer to the front in Ukraine, mainly Romania and Slovakia. Perhaps it's that Poland has ports for shipping by sea.
> 
> And what's NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania's Black Sea navies up to these days?



It’s definately a logistics matter.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> Zero. They're all terrorists.



Not according to Tucker…

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Good analysis from the NYT.









Can Ukraine Break Through Again?


A surprise advance this month exposed deep vulnerabilities in Russia’s overstretched military. As Russia calls for more troops, can Ukraine keep gaining ground?



www.nytimes.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 21, 2022)

In case anyone's interested, here's the full text of Putin's "limited mobilization" speech. Some of the comments about nuclear weapons use seem to escalate the rhetoric from previous speeches Putin has made. If nothing else, this gives a "Putin's eye" view of the world and the causes behind the Russian invasion: 

_President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Friends,

The subject of this address is the situation in Donbass and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup.

Today I am addressing you – all citizens of our country, people of different generations, ages and ethnicities, the people of our great Motherland, all who are united by the great historical Russia, soldiers, officers and volunteers who are fighting on the frontline and doing their combat duty, our brothers and sisters in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and other areas that have been liberated from the neo-Nazi regime.

The issue concerns the necessary, imperative measures to protect the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Russia and support the desire and will of our compatriots to choose their future independently, and the aggressive policy of some Western elites, who are doing their utmost to preserve their domination and with this aim in view are trying to block and suppress any sovereign and independent development centres in order to continue to aggressively force their will and pseudo-values on other countries and nations.

The goal of that part of the West is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy our country. They are saying openly now that in 1991 they managed to split up the Soviet Union and now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other.

They devised these plans long ago. They encouraged groups of international terrorists in the Caucasus and moved NATO's offensive infrastructure close to our borders. They used indiscriminate Russophobia as a weapon, including by nurturing the hatred of Russia for decades, primarily in Ukraine, which was designed to become an anti-Russia bridgehead. They turned the Ukrainian people into cannon fodder and pushed them into a war with Russia, which they unleashed back in 2014. They used the army against civilians and organised a genocide, blockade and terror against those who refused to recognise the government that was created in Ukraine as the result of a state coup.

After the Kiev regime publicly refused to settle the issue of Donbass peacefully and went as far as to announce its ambition to possess nuclear weapons, it became clear that a new offensive in Donbass – there were two of them before – was inevitable, and that it would be inevitably followed by an attack on Russia's Crimea, that is, on Russia.

In this connection, the decision to start a pre-emptive military operation was necessary and the only option. The main goal of this operation, which is to liberate the whole of Donbass, remains unaltered.

The Lugansk People's Republic has been liberated from the neo-Nazis almost completely. Fighting in the Donetsk People's Republic continues. Over the previous eight years, the Kiev occupation regime created a deeply echeloned line of permanent defences. A head-on attack against them would have led to heavy losses, which is why our units, as well as the forces of the Donbass republics, are acting competently and systematically, using military equipment and saving lives, moving step by step to liberate Donbass, purge cities and towns of the neo-Nazis, and help the people whom the Kiev regime turned into hostages and human shields.

As you know, professional military personnel serving under contract are taking part in the special military operation. Fighting side by side with them are volunteer units – people of different ethnicities, professions and ages who are real patriots. They answered the call of their hearts to rise up in defence of Russia and Donbass.

In this connection, I have already issued instructions for the Government and the Defence Ministry to determine the legal status of volunteers and personnel of the military units of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics. It must be the same as the status of military professionals of the Russian army, including material, medical and social benefits. Special attention must be given to organising the supply of military and other equipment for volunteer units and Donbass people's militia.

While acting to attain the main goals of defending Donbass in accordance with the plans and decisions of the Defence Ministry and the General Staff, our troops have liberated considerable areas in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and a number of other areas. This has created a protracted line of contact that is over 1,000 kilometres long.

This is what I would like to make public for the first time today. After the start of the special military operation, in particular after the Istanbul talks, Kiev representatives voiced quite a positive response to our proposals. These proposals concerned above all ensuring Russia's security and interests. But a peaceful settlement obviously did not suit the West, which is why, after certain compromises were coordinated, Kiev was actually ordered to wreck all these agreements.

More weapons were pumped into Ukraine. The Kiev regime brought into play new groups of foreign mercenaries and nationalists, military units trained according to NATO standards and receiving orders from Western advisers.

At the same time, the regime of reprisals throughout Ukraine against their own citizens, established immediately after the armed coup in 2014, was harshly intensified. The policy of intimidation, terror and violence is taking on increasingly mass-scale, horrific and barbaric forms.

I want to stress the following. We know that the majority of people living in the territories liberated from the neo-Nazis, and these are primarily the historical lands of Novorossiya, do not want to live under the yoke of the neo-Nazi regime. People in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in Lugansk and Donetsk saw and are seeing now the atrocities perpetrated by the neo-Nazis in the [Ukrainian-] occupied areas of the Kharkov region. The descendants of Banderites and members of Nazi punitive expeditions are killing, torturing and imprisoning people; they are settling scores, beating up, and committing outrages on peaceful civilians.

There were over 7.5 million people living in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions before the outbreak of hostilities. Many of them were forced to become refugees and leave their homes. Those who have stayed – they number about five million – are now exposed to artillery and missile attacks launched by the neo-Nazi militants, who fire at hospitals and schools and stage terrorist attacks against peaceful civilians.

We cannot, we have no moral right to let our kin and kith be torn to pieces by butchers; we cannot but respond to their sincere striving to decide their destiny on their own.

The parliaments of the Donbass people's republics and the military-civilian administrations of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions have adopted decisions to hold referendums on the future of their territories and have appealed to Russia to support this.

I would like to emphasise that we will do everything necessary to create safe conditions for these referendums so that people can express their will. And we will support the choice of future made by the majority of people in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

Friends,

Today our armed forces, as I have mentioned, are fighting on the line of contact that is over 1,000 kilometres long, fighting not only against neo-Nazi units but actually the entire military machine of the collective West.

In this situation, I consider it necessary to take the following decision, which is fully adequate to the threats we are facing. More precisely, I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defence Ministry and the General Staff on partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation to defend our Motherland and its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories.

As I have said, we are talking about partial mobilisation. In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.

Before being sent to their units, those called up for active duty will undergo mandatory additional military training based on the experience of the special military operation.

I have already signed Executive Order on partial mobilisation.

In accordance with legislation, the houses of the Federal Assembly – the Federation Council and the State Duma – will be officially notified about this in writing today.

The mobilisation will begin today, September 21. I am instructing the heads of the regions to provide the necessary assistance to the work of military recruitment offices.

I would like to point out that the citizens of Russia called up in accordance with the mobilisation order will have the status, payments and all social benefits of military personnel serving under contract.

Additionally, the Executive Order on partial mobilisation also stipulates additional measures for the fulfilment of the state defence order. The heads of defence industry enterprises will be directly responsible for attaining the goals of increasing the production of weapons and military equipment and using additional production facilities for this purpose. At the same time, the Government must address without any delay all aspects of material, resource and financial support for our defence enterprises.

Friends,

The West has gone too far in its aggressive anti-Russia policy, making endless threats to our country and people. Some irresponsible Western politicians are doing more than just speak about their plans to organise the delivery of long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine, which could be used to deliver strikes at Crimea and other Russian regions.

Such terrorist attacks, including with the use of Western weapons, are being delivered at border areas in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. NATO is conducting reconnaissance through Russia's southern regions in real time and with the use of modern systems, aircraft, vessels, satellites and strategic drones.

Washington, London and Brussels are openly encouraging Kiev to move the hostilities to our territory. They openly say that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield by any means, and subsequently deprived of political, economic, cultural and any other sovereignty and ransacked.

They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.

I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.

The citizens of Russia can rest assured that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be defended – I repeat – by all the systems available to us. Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around.

It is our historical tradition and the destiny of our nation to stop those who are keen on global domination and threaten to split up and enslave our Motherland. Rest assured that we will do it this time as well.

I believe in your support._

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## SaparotRob (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if Ukraine will get Abrams. I sometimes forget how big Ukraine is, as the largest country in Europe (77% of Russia is in Asia), it would takes ages for parts and service of Abrams tanks to get from Poland to the front.
> 
> Why does so much support to Ukraine come via Poland? There are other NATO members closer to the front in Ukraine, mainly Romania and Slovakia. Perhaps it's that Poland has ports for shipping by sea.
> 
> And what's NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania's Black Sea navies up to these days?


Maybe because Poland is about the only NATO country looking forward to an Article 5 activation.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Maybe because Poland is about the only NATO country looking forward to an Article 5 activation.


I doubt it, as Poland would be the first to be attacked by Russia.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt it, as Poland would be the first to be attacked by Russia.


Yup. I don't know how to say "Bring It!" in Polish.

BTW I agree with your response to Putler's Declaration of Crap. That speech alone might be able to solve the world's fertilizer shortage.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> BTW I agree with your response to Putler's Declaration of Crap. That speech alone might be able to solve the world's fertilizer shortage.


The big question is what do Russians think of it? Will Russia's mothers readily let Putin send their sons into the grinder?



That's where the West and Ukraine need to work now. Use every means possible to convince the Russian people that Putin is sending their boys on a fool's errand that they will not return from. Maybe turn Google, Facebook, etc. back onto Russian ISPs so that messages can be got to the people?

Vladimir Putin’s war is failing. The West should help it fail faster

Paywall passed version here.

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What the Slovenians did with their old T-55s is actually quite impressive - it will be interesting to see how these M-55s do against Russian elements.


Indeed given it has the 105 mm Royal Ordnance L7, if effective against the Russian tanks it opens up the possibility of Leopard 1s,M-60s....


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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up


One-way flights out of Russia are selling out fast after President Vladimir Putin's order for the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

What does Russia's partial military mobilisation actually mean?


As Russia announces a partial call-up of military reservists, there are two issues that provide more context on Vladimir Putin's incendiary move and the gruelling war in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

Russia to conscript 300,000 citizens in military reserve to fight in Ukraine — as it happened


Russia will call up 300,000 reservists with military experience to fight in the war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced. Look back on Wednesday's updates.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

'This is not a bluff': Putin mobilises Russia's military and says he will respond to 'nuclear blackmail' if threatened


In a televised address, Mr Putin says he has signed a decree on partial mobilisation and that most people in the Donbas region did not want to return to what he called the "yoke" of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

Chilling footage of Russian military's flesh-melting thermite bomb

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

'This is not a bluff': Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons in a dark new speech

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

World leaders react to Vladimir Putin's latest chilling speech on Ukraine conflict

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A few hours after announcing mobilization ....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And also this ....









Mass exodus with queues at Russia border as Putin orders 300,000 into army


Desperate citizens are fleeing Russia through its border with Finland as a traffic jam 20 miles long has been reported, following Vladimir Putin's call on reservists to help him fight the war




www.mirror.co.uk

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup._


_The delusion continues..._


buffnut453 said:


> _the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and other areas that have been liberated from the neo-Nazi regime._


_Ditto last comment..._


buffnut453 said:


> _They turned the Ukrainian people into cannon fodder and pushed them into a war with Russia, which they unleashed back in 2014. T_


_What the...??_


buffnut453 said:


> _After the Kiev regime publicly refused to settle the issue of Donbass peacefully and went as far as to announce its ambition to possess nuclear weapons, it became clear that a new offensive in Donbass – there were two of them before – was inevitable, and that it would be inevitably followed by an attack on Russia's Crimea, that is, on Russia._


_Err...back up...who invaded Crimea and who's is it exactly??_


buffnut453 said:


> _In this connection, the decision to start a pre-emptive military operation was necessary and the only option. _


_Well at least you admit that it was Russia who attacked..._


buffnut453 said:


> _The main goal of this operation, which is to liberate the whole of Donbass, remains unaltered._


_Explain the assault on Kyiv then...??_


buffnut453 said:


> _Fighting in the Donetsk People's Republic continues. Over the previous eight years, the Kiev occupation regime created a deeply echeloned line of permanent defences. A head-on attack against them would have led to heavy losses, which is why our units, as well as the forces of the Donbass republics, are acting competently and systematically, using military equipment and saving lives, moving step by step to liberate Donbass, purge cities and towns of the neo-Nazis, and help the people whom the Kiev regime turned into hostages and human shields._


_So that's your excuse is it...?_


buffnut453 said:


> _As you know, professional military personnel serving under contract are taking part in the special military operation. Fighting side by side with them are volunteer units – people of different ethnicities, professions and ages who are real patriots. They answered the call of their hearts to rise up in defence of Russia and Donbass._


_Yeah, professionals...right..._


buffnut453 said:


> _This is what I would like to make public for the first time today. After the start of the special military operation, in particular after the Istanbul talks, Kiev representatives voiced quite a positive response to our proposals. These proposals concerned above all ensuring Russia's security and interests. But a peaceful settlement obviously did not suit the West, which is why, after certain compromises were coordinated, Kiev was actually ordered to wreck all these agreements._


_Right...?_


buffnut453 said:


> _The Kiev regime brought into play new groups of foreign mercenaries and nationalists, _


_Hmmm...who brought mercenaries and nationalists in???_


buffnut453 said:


> _At the same time, the regime of reprisals throughout Ukraine against their own citizens, established immediately after the armed coup in 2014, was harshly intensified. The policy of intimidation, terror and violence is taking on increasingly mass-scale, horrific and barbaric forms._


_Boy, talk about projection..._


buffnut453 said:


> _I want to stress the following. We know that the majority of people living in the territories liberated from the neo-Nazis, and these are primarily the historical lands of Novorossiya, do not want to live under the yoke of the neo-Nazi regime. People in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in Lugansk and Donetsk saw and are seeing now the atrocities perpetrated by the neo-Nazis in the [Ukrainian-] occupied areas of the Kharkov region. The descendants of Banderites and members of Nazi punitive expeditions are killing, torturing and imprisoning people; they are settling scores, beating up, and committing outrages on peaceful civilians._


_More projection...and if this was so bad, why didn't the so-called oppressed here not simply move to Russia if that's where paradise was?_


buffnut453 said:


> _There were over 7.5 million people living in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions before the outbreak of hostilities. Many of them were forced to become refugees and leave their homes. Those who have stayed – they number about five million – are now exposed to artillery and missile attacks launched by the neo-Nazi militants, who fire at hospitals and schools and stage terrorist attacks against peaceful civilians._


_The Projection continues...this is getting tiring_


buffnut453 said:


> _We cannot, we have no moral right to let our kin and kith be torn to pieces by butchers; we cannot but respond to their sincere striving to decide their destiny on their own._


_YEs, and about the rest of Ukraine?_


buffnut453 said:


> _The parliaments of the Donbass people's republics and the military-civilian administrations of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions have adopted decisions to hold referendums on the future of their territories and have appealed to Russia to support this.
> 
> I would like to emphasise that we will do everything necessary to create safe conditions for these referendums so that people can express their will. And we will support the choice of future made by the majority of people in the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions._


_Because everyone knows how I am a big supporter of democracy..._


buffnut453 said:


> _Friends,
> 
> Today our armed forces, as I have mentioned, are fighting on the line of contact that is over 1,000 kilometres long, fighting not only against neo-Nazi units but actually the entire military machine of the collective West._


_You haven't seen but a fraction of the western military machine my friend..._


buffnut453 said:


> _In this situation, I consider it necessary to take the following decision, which is fully adequate to the threats we are facing. More precisely, I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defence Ministry and the General Staff on partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation to defend our Motherland and its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories._


_Boy this Special Military Action must really be hurting..._


buffnut453 said:


> _As I have said, we are talking about partial mobilisation. In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up._


_Or anyone else we can co-op...but let's not worry about facts_


buffnut453 said:


> _Before being sent to their units, those called up for active duty will undergo mandatory additional military training based on the experience of the special military operation._


_In other words, we want them to have half a chance of doing something rather than being chewed up straight away..._


buffnut453 said:


> _I would like to point out that the citizens of Russia called up in accordance with the mobilisation order will have the status, payments and all social benefits of military personnel serving under contract._


_Oh you poor bastards..._


buffnut453 said:


> _The heads of defence industry enterprises will be directly responsible for attaining the goals of increasing the production of weapons and military equipment and using additional production facilities for this purpose. At the same time, the Government must address without any delay all aspects of material, resource and financial support for our defence enterprises._


_Or heads will roll...or people will fall out of buildings..._


buffnut453 said:


> _The West has gone too far in its aggressive anti-Russia policy, making endless threats to our country and people. Some irresponsible Western politicians are doing more than just speak about their plans to organise the delivery of long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine, which could be used to deliver strikes at Crimea and other Russian regions._


_Errr...who is making endless threats and acting irresponsibly again??_



buffnut453 said:


> _NATO is conducting reconnaissance through Russia's southern regions in real time and with the use of modern systems, aircraft, vessels, satellites and strategic drones._


_What, can't you defend your own territory??_


buffnut453 said:


> _They openly say that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield _


_Well, if the battlefield is in Ukraine of course..._


buffnut453 said:


> _They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia._


_Oh, back to the projection..._


buffnut453 said:


> _I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff._


_Because I would rather take the whole of Russia and the world down rather than face the alternative..._


buffnut453 said:


> _Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around._


_Oh, I hope you think about those words yourself..._


buffnut453 said:


> _I believe in your support._


_Else you may get conscripted or fall out of a window..._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In case anyone's interested, here's the full text of Putin's "limited mobilization" speech. Some of the comments about nuclear weapons use seem to escalate the rhetoric from previous speeches Putin has made. If nothing else, this gives a "Putin's eye" view of the world and the causes behind the Russian invasion:
> 
> _President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Friends,
> 
> ...



My god, what a load of hogwash. Göbbels would be proud of him.

$10 says Tucker Carlson will be praising this on his show tonight.

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> $10 says Tucker Carlson will be praising this on his show tonight.


Comrade Carlson is one of our most useful, "useful idiots".

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## buffnut453 (Sep 21, 2022)

Interesting...apparently there are protests in Russia at the mobilization (Source: BBC):
_
We're hearing more than 109 people across Russia have been detained after protesting against mobilisation, according to a human rights group.

The independent OVD-Info protest monitoring group told Reuters news agency it was aware of detentions in at least 15 different cities.

In Russia unsanctioned rallies are illegal under anti-protest laws._


In other news, 5 captured Britons who were fighting in the Ukrainian army are being released. This seems an odd thing to do as it removes one of Moscow's bargaining chips. Perhaps they're trying to play (a little) in case it gains them some benefits in the longer run.

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## manta22 (Sep 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Chilling footage of Russian military's flesh-melting thermite bomb


Thermite is nothing new. It has been used for a hundred years to weld steel railroad tracks together. We were issued Thermite grenades to destroy our equipment in Germany.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 21, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Sep 21, 2022)

More on the Russian protests here:

bbc.com/news/world-europe-62981293

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## GTX (Sep 21, 2022)

Why Vladimir Putin's attempt at a show of strength actually exposes a weakness


World leaders and analysts say Vladimir Putin's decision to announce a partial mobilisation is an admission the war is not going so well for Russia, writes Emily Clarke.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Surely now is the time to take out the Kerch bridge before more reinforcements begin to cross? It’s too far for HIMARS…. So how to hit and (within reason) irreparably disable the bridge?


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## Dimlee (Sep 21, 2022)

According to some Russian mil bloggers, this unmanned surface vehicle has been found in Sevastopol.
Allegedly, there were two. The second one was destroyed at sea.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Dimlee
Interesting.









Mystery Drone Boat Washes Up Near Home Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Updated)


The unidentifiable unmanned surface vessel, which has features that could point to it being an explosive-laden suicide drone boat, appeared after a nearby blast.




www.thedrive.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 21, 2022)

A thread on Russian incompetence good will gesture on (not destroying) Ukrainian Air Force.

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## Denniss (Sep 21, 2022)

they were so afraid of the drone boat that they towed it out to sea and blew it up


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 21, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if Ukraine will get Abrams. I sometimes forget how big Ukraine is, as the largest country in Europe (77% of Russia is in Asia), it would takes ages for parts and service of Abrams tanks to get from Poland to the front.



Parts and mechanics can be flown in. Ukraine has 7 Il-76s, roughly equivalent to a C-141. The tanks will need to be convoyed on trucks, which of course will be slower but still, I think this is more designed for the medium-term future than ploughing them into battle ASAP.



Admiral Beez said:


> Why does so much support to Ukraine come via Poland? There are other NATO members closer to the front in Ukraine, mainly Romania and Slovakia. Perhaps it's that Poland has ports for shipping by sea.



Almost certainly the reason in terms of heavy equipment -- M777s, Panzerhaubitzes, Australian armored cars, etc. I suspect your guess is close to bull's-eye. 

Especially with Putin's call-up of 300,000 reservists, we can be relatively sure that this war will extend to a couple of years, barring unforeseen disaster happening to either side. Russia's reserve call-up won't hit the battlefield for at least a couple of months if not longer. They will need retraining, organizing into either newly-created units or perhaps folding into active units if the Russians can spare them from the front. They will also need to be equipped ... and it will be interesting to see how that looks.

This doesn't change my personal estimation that the recent Ukrainian success has pretty much assured Ukraine's survival into the spring of next year, at the very least.



Admiral Beez said:


> And what's NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania's Black Sea navies up to these days?



I haven't read much about that.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



Yeah, that’s just what Georgia needs, more Russians. Russian-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia must be wringing their hands at the opportunity to use demography as a weapon once more.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Surely now is the time to take out the Kerch bridge before more reinforcements begin to cross? It’s too far for HIMARS…. So how to hit and (within reason) irreparably disable the bridge?



Spec-ops would be my guess.


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## manta22 (Sep 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Spec-ops would be my guess.


Yes, sappers.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

You have to like this man.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> According to some Russian mil bloggers, this unmanned surface vehicle has been found in Sevastopol.
> Allegedly, there were two. The second one was destroyed at sea.
> 
> View attachment 688115
> ...


For some reason it reminds me of C.S.S. Hunley. Manned by Skynet.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 21, 2022)

Poland's port to border is more efficient.

Romania and Bulgaria are on the Black Sea, so those ports would be a no-go, plus to get material to Ukraine from the eastern Med., the only real way would be from Thessaloniki, Greece and then up through Bulgaria then across Romania. That route has decent highways, but mountainous and time consuming.

In regards to the Bulgarian and Romanian Navies, they have been active in mine sweeping coastal and shipping areas along with the Turkish Navy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

My take on the Russian call-up of reserves:

They know they don't have the combat power to defend what's left of their incursion to the east, and are likely going to send forward other active-duty units currently available for that role while the call-up will conduct hurried back-fill while training _ in situ_ where they will be deployed for that purpose. These recalled reservists likely won't be up to combat ops for at least four months while they retrain and re-equip.

The Russian hope is, I think, that by promising a longer war, they are trying to sap the willingness of NATO nations to continue arming and training Ukrainians forces, while they try to consolidate their hold over the land they do occupy right now, and use the sham referenda to justify a continuation of the war and a wearing-down of Western will. They're accelerating the referenda and issuing this call-up in order to stake a BS claim.

I think they'll have a nasty surprise as they see more Russian front-line troops chewed up in battle, which, even if successful will take a bloody nose. And how good will those reserves be? We've already seen the Ukrainians chew up a Guards tank army and a couple of Guards infantry divisions. 

This call-up is also an indication that they really don't have the stomach to escalate to WMDs. Putin is risking the stability of his own regime in preference to simply follow through on his bluster. Indeed, he himself saw fit to say "this is not a bluff" regarding use of nukes. The inference is of course that he previous threats were. Maybe he's never read of the boy who cried wolf?

At any rate, it boils down to exposing more Russian troops, either first-line or reservists, to battle in the hope of dragging this war out long enough that the West tires of supporting Ukraine in its fight.

We're still not seeing any bigger commitment of Russian air force assets to support these guys, nor will we be seeing many replacements for their tank corps because even if the tanks are around and running, you're gonna need trained troops to get the most out of what is rather antiquated equipment.

It's still a hard blow for Ukraine (especially in the aftermath of the optimism inspired by their offensive) ... but I'm just not sure 300,000 is enough to man and supply a frontline that runs over 1000 km. Nor am I sure the Russians can find any way out of the pickle they're in.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> For some reason it reminds me of C.S.S. Hunley. Manned by Skynet.


By the way, the Confederate Army operated the Hunley, not the Confederate Navy, so it was officially registered as the H.L. Hunley.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's still a hard blow for Ukraine (especially in the aftermath of the optimism inspired by their offensive) ... but I'm just not sure 300,000 is enough to man and supply a frontline that runs over 1000 km. Nor am I sure the Russians can find any way out of the pickle they're in.


Ukraine likely has sufficient small arms and kit to equip every adult who volunteers. Russia adds 300,000? Ukraine can likely front 600,000 more, but well equipped, with high morale, motivation and leadership. No contest.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine likely has sufficient small arms and kit to equip every adult who volunteers. Russia adds 300,000? Ukraine can likely front 600,000 more, but well equipped, with high morale, motivation and leadership. No contest.



Agreed. And Putin's 300,000 covering a front which is as he says 1000km long , well, that's one trooper every three meters and change. Not a bad density. But then you need to think about where they're getting ammo and fuel from, and who is bringing that up?

In the big picture, he's still gonna need a bigger boat, especially when the Ukrainians are Samuel-L-Jackson-level badass.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> By the way, the Confederate Army operated the Hunley, not the Confederate Navy, so it was officially registered as the H.L. Hunley.


If it doesn't start with U.S.S., it doesn't really matter. Don't let the Brits know I said that.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 21, 2022)

Russian Navy Kilo Class Submarines Retreating From Crimea - Naval News


The changing tide of the Ukraine War appear to have led the Russian Navy to ‘regroup’ its forces in the Black Sea. Early during the invasion they loitered boldly close to Odessa. Now the Black Sea Fleet barely sails out of sight of Crimea for fear of Harpoon missiles. Its submarines too have...




www.navalnews.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 21, 2022)

When the war started, the Ukraine armed forces had over 196,000 active personnel but what most don't hear about, is the 900,000 reserves.

I enjoy the fact that Ukraine is holding their cards close to their chest.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

They got so much wrong back in 2019.









Risks of lethal aid to Ukraine — Defense Priorities
 






www.defensepriorities.org

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## gumbyk (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They got so much wrong back in 2019.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


looks almost like it was written by 45's aides

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 21, 2022)

Reads like Pat Buchanan.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> looks almost like it was written by 45's aides


Yeah, I was going to allude to as much, but politics has no place here.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 21, 2022)

....and yet we keep bringing it back.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> When the war started, the Ukraine armed forces had over 196,000 active personnel but what most don't hear about, is the 900,000 reserves.


I was trying to find a list of the small arms, uniforms, helmets, boots, etc. sent to Ukraine. Do they have sufficient numbers to equip 900,000 reserves? The below Wiki pages is out of date.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Rifles



What rifles and small arms is Ukraine using? Is the rifle still AK based firing the 7.62 mm Soviet-era round? Before the war Ukraine planned to drop the AK. I imagine former WP nations in Europe would have stocks of AKs and ammo just waiting to be replaced with more modern NATO spec rifles.


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## at6 (Sep 21, 2022)

As far how many troops and what equipment the Ukraine has available, the world doesn't need to know. Media people will just blab it out all over the place. Putin's best intel is from irresponsible media types.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They got so much wrong back in 2019.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Right. My first thought was, "So, how's that working out for you?"

It's essentially an apologetics for appeasement on the part of the West by spouting stuff we've seen shown wrong in the current conflict.

Here's hoping he fleeced the Russian government with that pieintheskyism. Because they look pretty busy suffering from adventurism.

It also completely ignores the idea that a nation should be able to choose its own destiny. Realpolitik is useful, but you ignore the feelings of the people at your own risk. We Americans have hopefully learnt that over the last fifty years, so this isn't gloating. It's a lesson hard-bought.

It seems the Russians too need another try before they realize it's not a good way to behave. But it doesn't seem that our little mastermind Putin has given this much thought.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was trying to find a list of the small arms, uniforms, helmets, boots, etc. sent to Ukraine. Do they have sufficient numbers to equip 900,000 reserves? The below Wiki pages is out of date.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Try this wiki list, it is recently updated.

Well over 500 references, too.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Assault_rifles

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was trying to find a list of the small arms, uniforms, helmets, boots, etc. sent to Ukraine. Do they have sufficient numbers to equip 900,000 reserves? The below Wiki pages is out of date.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't know about small arms, but they have more antitank weapons than tanks are in the whole world.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

This is an interesting development. Russia has released 215 Ukrainian prisoners, including over 100 soldiers and key leaders of the Azov Battalion captured in Mariupol. In return, Ukraine released 55 Russian POWs plus that idiot Medvedchuk. Seems like a good deal for Ukraine.









Russia frees 215 Ukrainians held after Mariupol battle, Ukraine says


Russia has released 215 Ukrainians it took prisoner after a protracted battle for the port city of Mariupol earlier this year, including top military leaders, a senior official in Kyiv said on Wednesday.




www.reuters.com

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## at6 (Sep 22, 2022)

Putin returns to sabre rattling about nuclear weapons. No body wins but the west manages to rebuild. Russia will never exists again. He sees enemies everywhere while his real enemy is the one in his head.

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## Denniss (Sep 22, 2022)

Ukrainians were tired of feeding this bloody criminal and traitor so they traded him in for a high and valuable price - lots of experienced soldiers. He was probably worth 150 of the 200+ soldiers they got back

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Try this wiki list, it is recently updated.
> 
> Well over 500 references, too.
> 
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Assault_rifles


Interesting that they’ve got a mix of 5.56 and 7.62 caliber. I wonder if that tests logistics.


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## J_P_C (Sep 22, 2022)

There are suggestions that Medvechuk was just less important part of POWs exchange- Ukrainians traded russian generals taken POW during last offensive, which is still great deal considering Azov guys has been saved - at least some of them...

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 22, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Ukrainians were tired of feeding this bloody criminal and traitor so they traded him in for a high and valuable price - lots of experienced soldiers. He was probably worth 150 of the 200+ soldiers they got back


The ukr will stay in Turkey for remainder of war as part of the deal brokered by Turkey.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

Interesting analysis (if you like that sort of thing):

Putin's Kremlin Is in Disarray - The Atlantic
The Kremlin Must Be in Crisis
Putin's erratic actions are not those of a secure leader.
By Anne Applebaum

_If an American president announced a major speech, booked the networks for 8 p.m., and then disappeared until the following morning, the analysis would be immediate and damning: chaos, disarray, indecision. The White House must be in crisis.

In the past 24 hours, this is exactly what happened in Moscow. The Russian president really did announce a major speech, alert state television, warn journalists, and then disappear without explanation. Although Vladimir Putin finally gave his speech to the nation this morning, the same conclusions have to apply: chaos, disarray, indecision. The Kremlin must be in crisis.

In fact, no elements of the delayed speech were completely new or unexpected. Russian authorities have long intended to hold sham referenda in the Ukrainian territories they occupy. Putin and his television propagandists have been making subtle and unsubtle nuclear threats since February. Quietly, a creeping mobilization has been going on for many weeks too, as the Russian army has sought to recruit more men to replace the soldiers whom it still does not admit have been killed, wounded, or exhausted by the war. But now that Ukraine has successfully recaptured thousands of square miles of Russian-held territory, the sham referenda are being rushed, the nuclear language is being repeated, and the mobilization expanded. These are not the actions of a secure leader assured of his legitimacy and of the outcome of this war.

In part, the crisis stems from Putin's fears that he will lose whatever counts as his international support. No ideology holds together the global autocrats' club, and no sentiment does either. As long as they believed Russia really had the second largest army in the world, as long as Putin seemed destined to stay in power indefinitely, then the leaders of China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, along with the strongmen running India and Turkey, were happy to tolerate his company.

But Putin's supposedly inevitable military victory is in jeopardy. His army looks weak. Western sanctions make problems not just for him but his trading partners, and their tolerance is receding. At a summit in Uzbekistan last week, he was snubbed by a series of Central Asian leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that "today's era is not an era of war," and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his "concerns" as well. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told PBS that he had urged Putin to end the war: "The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine." And those lands, he made clear, should include Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, following a sham referendum much like the ones it now plans to stage in other parts of occupied Ukraine.

But while losing support abroad is bad, losing support at home is worse, and there are some signs of that too. Putin might not care much about the Russian liberals and exiles who oppose the war, but he may worry (and should worry) about people who are supposed to be on his side—people such as Alla Pugacheva, a Soviet-era pop star who has millions of mainstream followers and has recently proclaimed both her patriotism and her opposition to the war. Putin may also worry about the disappointed, pro-war nationalist bloggers, active on social media, who have been criticizing the conduct of the war for some time. "Mobilization is, let's put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat," one of them recently wrote. No one has stopped or arrested these critics, perhaps because they have protectors high up inside the security services, or perhaps because they are connected to the heavily armed mercenaries who are now doing much of the important fighting in Ukraine. If their loyalty isn't assured, then Putin isn't secure either.

At the same time, the Russian president has to balance the discontent of that heavily armed minority against the wishes of the mostly apathetic, mostly silent majority. For the past six months, Putin has been telling the latter that there is no war, just a special military operation; that Russia has suffered no losses, just some temporary setbacks. Given that the army is victorious and everything is fine, most people need not alter their lives in any way. Now events have forced Putin to change his language, but it seems there are limits. Thus he speaks not of a true mass mobilization—which would involve conscripting young men in enormous numbers—but of partial mobilization: no students, no general call-up, just the activation of reservists with past military experience. Supposedly Russia has 300,000 such people, though it's not clear how many of them are actually fit to fight or whether there are enough weapons and gear for them either. Presumably, if better equipment were available, it would already be on the battlefield.

Finally, and perhaps most important, the speech and a series of legal changes announced yesterday reflect a crisis inside the military. In truth, the Russian army faces not just a logistical emergency or some tactical problems but also a collapse in morale. That's why Putin needs more soldiers, and that's why, as in Stalin's time, the Russian state has now defined "voluntary surrender" as a crime: Under a law approved by the Russian Parliament yesterday, you can be sent to prison for up to 10 years. If you desert your guard post in Donetsk or Kherson (or change into civilian clothes and run away, as some Russian soldiers have done in the past few weeks). The state has also decreed new penalties for mutiny—"using violence against a superior"—and stealing while in uniform. If the Russian army were a reliable, enthusiastic, dedicated fighting force, then the state would not need to declare harsh punishments for deserters, looters, and mutineers. But it is not.

Over the next few days, the bogus referenda will gather headlines, and the nuclear threats will create fear, as they were designed to do. But we should understand these attempts at blackmail and intimidation as a part of the deeper story told by this delayed speech: Support for Putin is eroding—abroad, at home, and in the army. Everything else he says and does right now is nothing more than an attempt to halt that decline._

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## ARTESH (Sep 22, 2022)

I wonder if the "Russians" are treated same as "Iranians" by international companies and their own regime! 

Sanctions from outside, Censorship from inside!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 22, 2022)

Good step by step of the Aug-Sep UAF offensive in Kherson.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

Gravity must be particularly strong in Russia. Another influential person has "done a Peter Pan" off a building (ok, down a set of stairs...but the result was the same):

Ex-Putin Ally Plunges to His Death ‘From a Great Height’ at Moscow Aviation Institute

In case folk aren't tracking the Peter Pan reference...

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## GrauGeist (Sep 22, 2022)

Here's an interesting bit of info:
Did you know that the list of Putin allies that have died, is long enough to warrant it's own wiki page?

Yes, it's true - and the count is up to 14 so far.
The number 14 is for instances, the body count is higher, because family members have died in several of these cases.

Find the list here:





2022 Russian businessmen mystery deaths - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

Such a bad luck in Russia this days ....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

It's like that old Dirty Harry movie, I forget which one: "Dammit, Callahan, people have a funny way of dying when you're around."

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

This doesn't come as a surprise...Russian hawks are confused at the exchange of Azov Battalion prisoners:

*Release of Azov fighters leaves pro-Russian commentators bewildered*
_Laura Gozzi
BBC News
Returning to the news about last night's major prisoner exchange which saw Ukrainian Azov fighters released alongside foreign nationals who fought for Ukraine.
Azov fighters are part of Ukraine's national guard and have long been reviled in Russia, where they are described as Nazis. From the start of the war, President Putin has said that Russian troops have been fighting to liberate Ukraine from the Neo-Nazi regime.
Many members of the Azov Regiment were entrenched in the Azovstal steel plant for weeks earlier this year, until they were taken captive by Russia.
In July, the Russian Supreme Court recognised Ukraine's Azov Regiment as a terrorist organisation and banned its activities in Russia.
At the time, the chairman of the Public Monitoring Commission of Moscow, Georgy Volkov, alleged that cannibalism was practised by Azov members, referring to what he said was the testimony of a captured militant.
Yet, among those released last night were Azov commander Denys Prokopenko and his deputy, Svyatoslav Palamar. The development has caused considerable anger and confusion among Russian pro-war commentators online.
"Will anyone explain what just happened? Will anyone be held responsible for all this? Shame Stalin is not with us anymore," said one Telegram account.
"This is worse than a crime… and worse than a mistake. This is unbelievable stupidity. Or deliberate sabotage," said former military chief of pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk Igor Strelkov.
And Telegram channel Rybar said: "A serious reputational blow no matter how you look at it."_

Moscow's stated intent was to eradicate nazi elements from Ukraine, of which the Azov Battalion was a specifically-identified element. How does releasing these prisoners help Moscow achieve it's intent? It makes no sense...unless their initial intent was nonsense.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

_KYIV/NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Some draft-age Russians headed abroad on Thursday to escape their country's biggest conscription drive since World War Two, while explosions shook southeastern Ukraine on the eve of referendums planned there by pro-Moscow separatists.

[...]

Though polls have suggested widespread domestic backing for Russia's intervention in Ukraine, mass conscription may be a domestically risky move after past Kremlin promises it would not happen and a string of battlefield failures in Ukraine.

"Every normal person is (concerned)," said one man, identifying himself only as Sergey, disembarking in Belgrade after a flight from Moscow. "It is OK to be afraid of the war."


Anti-war protests in 38 Russian cities saw more than 1,300 people arrested on Wednesday, a monitoring group said, with more planned for the weekend. Some of the detainees had been ordered to report to enlistment offices on Thursday, the first full day of conscription, independent news outlets said.

[...]

Prices for air tickets out of Moscow soared above $5,000 for one-way flights to the nearest foreign locations, with most sold out for coming days. Traffic also surged at border crossings with Finland and Georgia. _









Ukraine says residents coerced into Russian annexation vote


Russia on Friday aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, raising the stakes of the seven-month-old war in what Kyiv called a sham that saw residents threatened with punishment if they did not vote.




www.reuters.com





They're voting with their feet. Good to see solid evidence that Russian public opinion is more diverse than is often stated.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 22, 2022)

So, Russians are invading Finland. Shouldn't this trigger an Article 5 intervention?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

The escalation in nuclear rhetoric continues:

*Medvedev says nuclear weapons could be used to defend Russia-backed territories*
_





ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seemed to square away any ambiguity with regards to the use of nuclear weapons.
Medevedev said any weapons in Moscow's arsenal, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used to defend territories joined to Russia from Ukraine, Reuters reported.
Medvedev, who also serves as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said that referendums planned by Russian-installed and separatist authorities in large swathes of Ukrainian territory will take place, and "there is no going back", according to the news agency.
"The Western establishment and all citizens of Nato countries in general need to understand that Russia has chosen its own path," he said._


And, in case there are questions about the regional referenda, this piece shows the 4 regions that we all expect will join Russia (because the referenda will be about as free and fair as Putin's own "democratic" election):

*Four Russian-occupied regions to hold votes on joining Russia*
_From tomorrow to 27 September, four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south - will hold so-called referendums on joining Russia.
The so-called Donetsk People's Republic declared the fourth and fifth days of voting as public holidays, while the Luhansk People's Republic authorties have promised to announce vote results on 28 September.
Moscow-backed separatists have controlled large parts of the industrial Donbas area since 2014, while the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia were occupied after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.
In a televised address on Wednesday, Putin said Russia needed to support those in Ukraine who wanted to "determine their own future". The EU has said it will not recognise the results of the votes.
Today Russian news agency RIA Novosti shared an image showing flyers it says are being handed out in Luhansk.
Under the headline "Russia is the future", the flyer reads: "We are united by a 1,000-year history. For centuries we were part of the same great country. The break-up of the united state was a huge political catastrophe: millions of relatives suddenly found themselves separated by an artificial border. It's time to restore historical justice."
This statement encapsulates Russia's claims to the region, which it says is part of "the historical lands of Novorossiya" - the 18th century area that was part of during the Russian Empire and which later became part of Ukraine.
Senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev has weighed in on the referendums, saying that once they are over "it won't be Russia's right but its duty to protect the those regions" - adding an attack on those lands will be an attack on Russia "with all its consequences"._


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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> So, Russians are invading Finland. Shouldn't this trigger an Article 5 intervention?


Not a problem. Russia invading Finland? Finland don’t need no NATO.


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> So, Russians are invading Finland. Shouldn't this trigger an Article 5 intervention?


I don't believe Finland is an "official" member yet.



But if so...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

Meanwhile, China seems a tad unhappy about this latest decision of his:

_A spokesman for China's foreign ministry urged Russia and Ukraine to reach a "ceasefire through dialogue" on Wednesday after Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of Russia's conscripted reservists—a step that could mark an escalation of the Russian invasion and has already led to protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

"We always maintain that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be abided by, [and] the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously," foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a press conference. "All efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of crises should be supported."

"China calls on relevant parties to properly resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, and is willing to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation," he added.

The foreign ministry's statement comes only one day after Putin announced the partial mobilization, which he emphasized was necessary in order to preserve Russia's security against the "collective West." _









China Calls for Ceasefire in Ukraine After Russian Mobilization


“China calls on relevant parties to properly resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a press conference.




nationalinterest.org





I think they'll still buy the cheap Russian oil, but China replacing resources and imported tech goods may slow down if not halt?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> I don't believe Finland is an "official" member yet.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




He was referring to all the Russian draft age men fleeing across the border into Finland.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He was referring to all the Russian draft age men fleeing across the border into Finland.


No country within reach of Russia should want any sizable Russian minority population within their borders.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> He was referring to all the Russian draft age men fleeing across the border into Finland.


LOL - got it, but then again...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No country within reach of Russia should want any sizable Russian minority population within their borders.



I'm afraid ethnic nationalism has been a causal factor (or, more accurately, an excuse) for wars since the dawn of time. Sudentenland. Arab-Israeli Wars, Former Yugloslavia, countless African conflicts etc etc. Humans are a tribal species and we like to congregate with people who are like "us," thus causing everyone else to be "them." Geopolitical boundaries hinder those "us" and "them" aggregations but even if we removed the concept of "nation" such wars would still happen wherever there are touch-points between "us" and "them" and regardless of the criteria used to make the us/them distinction.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm afraid ethnic nationalism has been a causal factor (or, more accurately, an excuse) for wars since the dawn of time.


Agreed. The problem specific to Russians though is that wherever they go Putin's government uses their very existence as an excuse for defacto annexation.

There is no lasting peace in a country bordering Russia that has a large Russian minority. It's only a matter of time before Russian separatist sentiment rises up and you end up with Moscow-backed breakaway "Republics", including Donetsk PR, Luhansk PR, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetian and Transnistria. If NATO didn't protect them, Russia would now be poking at the Baltic states with their large Russian minorities, claiming they need protection.

I think Georgia is only fair to worry that this latest onrush of Russians may include a Trojan Horse.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

Finland mulls barring Russians from entering as border traffic grows


VAALIMAA, Finland (Reuters) -Finland said on Thursday it was considering barring most Russians from entering the country as traffic across the border from its eastern neighbour "intensified" following President Vladimir Putin's order for a partial military mobilisation. Finnish land border...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

Zelenskyy urged UN officials to ask Russian representatives why their military is 'so obsessive with castration' after sharing what was found in Izium


Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a speech on Wednesday at the UN General Assembly, calling for peace and punishment against Russia.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

Kremlin hints that mobilisation notices to be further handed out at protest rallies


STANISLAV POHORILOV - THURSDAY, 22 SEPTEMBER 2022, 13:53 Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, states that handing out mobilisation notices at protest rallies against partial mobilisation does not contradict Russian laws, hinting that the authorities will continue to do so.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 22, 2022)

I'm still shaking my head at Medvedev's idiotic statement about using nukes on the "breakaway" regions.

Isn't Russia supposedly there to "liberate" them?

Unless he means that they're going to liberate their souls from their Nazi oppressed bodies as a kind and benevolent gesture...

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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

Is it Peskov's son that is avoiding the draft? I saw a site in which his son (I think) was trolled by journalists pretending to be Russian MoD, asking where his forms were.

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## special ed (Sep 22, 2022)

Wouldn't putting protesters in the military and arming them be a danger to the establishment?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm still shaking my head at Medvedev's idiotic statement about using nukes on the "breakaway" regions.
> 
> Isn't Russia supposedly there to "liberate" them?
> 
> Unless he means that they're going to liberate their souls from their Nazi oppressed bodies as a kind and benevolent gesture...



No, he’s saying that if the referenda in the “liberated” regions vote to join Russia, then Moscow will use nukes to defend them as an attack against them will be construed as an attack against Mother Russia.

It’s some very dangerous escalation, IMHO. It will be interesting to see if the bluff gets called and, if so, what the (non-nuclear) fallout will be.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Meanwhile, China seems a tad unhappy about this latest decision of his:
> 
> _A spokesman for China's foreign ministry urged Russia and Ukraine to reach a "ceasefire through dialogue" on Wednesday after Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of Russia's conscripted reservists—a step that could mark an escalation of the Russian invasion and has already led to protests in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
> 
> ...


Chinese are very pragmatic. This war is hurting world economy and they need to sell their products to the whole world.
Besides, I bet they are even less happy about the referenda. After all it could be a precedent for Taiwan.

That being said, they can't say no to cheap oil and gas.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Kremlin hints that mobilisation notices to be further handed out at protest rallies
> 
> 
> STANISLAV POHORILOV - THURSDAY, 22 SEPTEMBER 2022, 13:53 Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, states that handing out mobilisation notices at protest rallies against partial mobilisation does not contradict Russian laws, hinting that the authorities will continue to do so.
> ...



Yeah, I'd want anti-war activists filling my ranks too.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 22, 2022)

All they have to do is absorb a few bullets, so the "professionals" can do their jobs.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is it Peskov's son that is avoiding the draft? I saw a site in which his son (I think) was trolled by journalists pretending to be Russian MoD, asking where his forms were.



I'd read that, yes. If true, it's not only funny as hell, but also dangerous for the Peskov family. I'd stay far away from windows if that was my family name.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

special ed said:


> Wouldn't putting protesters in the military and arming them be a danger to the establishment?



They will certainly be the first ones to desert or surrender.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> "...or surrender."



Which is now a criminal offence in Russia.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd read that, yes. If true, it's not only funny as hell, but also dangerous for the Peskov family. I'd stay far away from windows if that was my family name.



Well, you know what they say about people who live in glass houses...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> All they have to do is absorb a few bullets, so the "professionals" can do their jobs.



... assuming they're willing to do so ...


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 22, 2022)

Chained together and prodded forward with whips and bayonets.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Which is now a criminal offence in Russia.



After the battle they will find them with 7.62 mm rounds in their backs.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Sep 22, 2022)

wow...a dinner and a show.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

Historical lend lease documentary

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 22, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



Hockey season, already?

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## hawkeye2an (Sep 22, 2022)

If




Hope he is truly going home. Thought I had read that they were all going to Turkey. The new, clean but still torn jacket is a bit much though.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...a dinner and a show.



Personally, I prefer comedy or a nice musical. Drama's too heavy for me while I'm eating.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

February 24. Ukrainians are googling how to make Molotov cocktail.

September 21. Russians are googling how to leave the country and how to break an arm.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 22, 2022)

‘It’s a 100% mobilisation’: day one of Russia’s drive to build its army


Reports ethnic minorities may be disproportionately affected while protesters in Moscow drafted on arrest




www.theguardian.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Chained together and prodded forward with whips and bayonets.


Wrong forum.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Historical lend lease documentary







I now truly fear the Ukrainians. They can beat us at satire.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Is it Peskov's son that is avoiding the draft? I saw a site in which his son (I think) was trolled by journalists pretending to be Russian MoD, asking where his forms were.



Yep...here's some additional scoop. The scam was run by Dmitry Nizovtsev, a member of the NGO Anti-corruption Foundation founded by Kremlin political opponent Alexei Navalny, who pretended to be an employee of the military registration and enlistment office. He called some children of the officials and deputies closest to Vladimir Putin to summon them for medical examinations to be carried out before being included among the 300,000 conscripts:



Pranksters called the son of one of Putin's closest allies and told him he is being enlisted in the army — but he refused

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## buffnut453 (Sep 22, 2022)

Now this is REALLY interesting. According to info leaked from the Kremlin to a Russian newspaper, Putin signed a secret law approving conscription of 1 million soldiers. If it's true, we could see a lot more protests in Russia:









Putin ‘passes secret law to send one million Russians to fight in Ukraine’


Police beat up and detained men and women who took to the streets in towns across the nation on Wednesday following the Kremlin’s decree




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yep...here's some additional scoop. The scam was run by Dmitry Nizovtsev, a member of the NGO Anti-corruption Foundation founded by Kremlin political opponent Alexei Navalny, who pretended to be an employee of the military registration and enlistment office. He called some children of the officials and deputies closest to Vladimir Putin to summon them for medical examinations to be carried out before being included among the 300,000 conscripts:
> 
> 
> 
> Pranksters called the son of one of Putin's closest allies and told him he is being enlisted in the army — but he refused



In every country with a draft there’s always the fortunate sons.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Chained together and prodded forward with whips and bayonets.



TMI, Greg, TMI.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Historical lend lease documentary




Am I the only one who immediately thought of Looney Tunes with that opening fanfare? That was freakin' great.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 22, 2022)

that was brilliant!

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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Am I the only one who immediately thought of Looney Tunes with that opening fanfare? That was freakin' great.


A great parody of American WW II propaganda. That was extremely well, done right down to the way the thumbs up was given.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> A great parody of American WW II propaganda. That was extremely well, done right down to the way the thumbs up was given.



Note the use of B&W to give it a period feel, too. I really love good sarcasm, when done right it approaches the level of art-form.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 22, 2022)

I'm gonna' watch it again!

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 23, 2022)

Russian Black Sea Fleet reportedly undergoing a "regrouping" away from Sevastopol. Submarine assets (at least three of four updated Kilo class in the area) as well as landing ships and some fleet support elements have relocated to a facility at Novorossiysk, about 350 km to the east.

This maybe the influence of the new Black Sea Fleet commander, who was appointed at the start of September, and the effect of the multiple drone raids on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters seen in August (footage shows the drones coming in over the sub pens, which would worry the hell out of me if I was Russian Navy). 

It also coincides with the revelation that Ukraine has seaborne kamikaze drones, after one washed up near Sevastopol.

In addition, one of the two Kilos in the Mediterranean has gone back to Russia for repairs. It spent just under three weeks at sea and then may have broken down. Last seen heading home being escorted by a rescue tug. Naval intelligence types on Twitter reporting it's unlikely to be replaced any time soon.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 23, 2022)

Couple of interesting ground war developments:

Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced several kilometers to the west of Oskil in the past 24 hours - best progress made in about 10 days - and are now threatening an end run around the rear of Lyman.

Ukrainian crossing of the Oskil river at Borova was reportedly abandoned in the last few days without a fight. Looks like they thought it was too difficult to keep supplied and/or forces from Oskil were going to take too long to link up. 

Russian forces are pushing back hard to the east of Kupiyansk, with several different units of regular Russian army involved. Meanwhile, to the north of north of Kupiyansk Ukrainian forces have reportedly started to advance eastwards with another crossing secured.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 23, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Couple of interesting ground war developments:
> 
> Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced several kilometers to the west of Oskil in the past 24 hours - best progress made in about 10 days - and are now threatening an end run around the rear of Lyman.
> 
> ...



Many thanks for this update. It's been very quiet of late so these details are much-needed. 

Really glad to see pressure building on Lyman. That's another key logistic hub which, if it falls, will have knock-on consequences for Russia's ability to defend the region. 

Slava Ukraini!

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## buffnut453 (Sep 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Am I the only one who immediately thought of Looney Tunes with that opening fanfare? That was freakin' great.



Sadly, no, you're not....<sigh>

It was great. The only thing better would be if it was dubbed for one of those horribly earnest British propaganda clips from the 40s and 50s with the clipped, upper-class English accent, coupled with the moody background music.

Found this clip from Malaya/Singapore circa 1950 It has all the above, plus a rousing finish. Priceless!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

Some good flying here.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Sadly, no, you're not....<sigh>
> 
> It was great. The only thing better would be if it was dubbed for one of those horribly earnest British propaganda clips from the 40s and 50s with the clipped, upper-class English accent, coupled with the moody background music.
> 
> Found this clip from Malaya/Singapore circa 1950 It has all the above, plus a rousing finish. Priceless!



I can't get it to play.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 23, 2022)

_
KYIV, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Russia launched referendums on Friday aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, raising the stakes of the seven-month-old war in what Kyiv called a sham that saw residents threatened with punishment if they did not vote.

Ukrainian officials said people were banned from leaving some occupied areas until the four-day vote was over, armed groups were going to homes to force people to cast ballots, and employees were threatened with the sack if they did not participate.

[...]

By incorporating the four areas, Moscow could portray attacks to retake them as an attack on Russia itself - potentially using that to justify even a nuclear response.

Ukraine, Western leaders and the United Nations condemned the votes as an illegitimate precursor to illegal annexation. There are no independent observers, and much of the pre-war population has fled.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitors elections, said the outcomes would have no legal bearing as they do not conform with Ukraine law or international standards and the areas are not secure.
_









Ukraine says residents coerced into Russian annexation vote


Russia on Friday aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine, raising the stakes of the seven-month-old war in what Kyiv called a sham that saw residents threatened with punishment if they did not vote.




www.reuters.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 23, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 23, 2022)

Russia to conscript 1.2 million people — Meduza


Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.




meduza.io

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## buffnut453 (Sep 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I can't get it to play.



Works fine for me. Must be operator error.

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## hawkeye2an (Sep 23, 2022)

Lifting the arms embargo on Cyprus is a major opportunity to aid Ukraine - Breaking Defense


With savvy geopolitical maneuvering, the Biden administration could get Ukraine weapons it already knows and gain a friend in the Mediterranean, a trio of FDD researchers and officials say.




breakingdefense.com





Doing what we can to get familiar equipment to Ukraine

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## GrauGeist (Sep 23, 2022)

So, what if Ukraine holds a referendum and vote to annex Russia?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russia to conscript 1.2 million people — Meduza
> 
> 
> Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.
> ...


We might see Putin replaced, but otherwise I don't think we'll see the Russian government system collapse, but this is going to be 1905 all over again.









1905 Russian Revolution - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





_"The 1905 revolution was primarily spurred by the international humiliation as a result of the Russian defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, which ended in the same year." _

The 2022-24 Russo-Ukraine War will end in equal humiliation for Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Lifting the arms embargo on Cyprus is a major opportunity to aid Ukraine - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> With savvy geopolitical maneuvering, the Biden administration could get Ukraine weapons it already knows and gain a friend in the Mediterranean, a trio of FDD researchers and officials say.
> ...


Nice. Per the article Cyprus has 82 T-80U tanks, 43 BMP-3 IFVs. By early October the first of those could be on cargo ships to Greece, likely up to Italy-Austria-Slovakia-Poland to Ukraine. Greece-Romania-Bulgaria-Odessa looks shorter, but the railways won't be as good.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 23, 2022)

If they use the port at Thessaloniki, it's a straight (relatively) shot north through Bulgaria and Romania into south-west Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yep...here's some additional scoop. The scam was run by Dmitry Nizovtsev, a member of the NGO Anti-corruption Foundation founded by Kremlin political opponent Alexei Navalny, who pretended to be an employee of the military registration and enlistment office. He called some children of the officials and deputies closest to Vladimir Putin to summon them for medical examinations to be carried out before being included among the 300,000 conscripts:
> 
> 
> 
> Pranksters called the son of one of Putin's closest allies and told him he is being enlisted in the army — but he refused



I would love to see the reactions of the ordinary Russians to that. If they could see it.

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## GTX (Sep 23, 2022)

As the war escalates, Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons. So will he?


As Vladimir Putin warns he's willing to use any military means necessary in the war with Ukraine, experts say the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons must be taken seriously.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 23, 2022)

Long queues form at Russian borders as men flee the country to avoid Putin's military mobilisation order


Some Russian men have rushed for the exits after President Vladimir Putin's military call out, with traffic at border crossings surging and prices for flights from Moscow skyrocketing.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 23, 2022)

North Korea denies exporting weapons to Russia during Ukraine invasion


A North Korean official tells the US to stop making "reckless remarks" and "keep its mouth shut" after it said Russia was purchasing weapons from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Sep 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> North Korea denies exporting weapons to Russia during Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> A North Korean official tells the US to stop making "reckless remarks" and "keep its mouth shut" after it said Russia was purchasing weapons from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine.
> ...


So it was true.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 23, 2022)

North Korea: "Yankee keep your mouth shut!"
U.S.: "or what?"

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

Let’s get those Leo2 tanks moving to Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> North Korea denies exporting weapons to Russia during Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> A North Korean official tells the US to stop making "reckless remarks" and "keep its mouth shut" after it said Russia was purchasing weapons from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine.
> ...



Look at the big mouth on Kim!

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## buffnut453 (Sep 23, 2022)

This is an interesting piece of investigative journalism. Darkweb marketplaces are showing adverts for Western military equipment being sold by "Ukrainians." The BBC brought in experts to explore these claims and, using non-traceable means, actually engage with the sellers. Surprise, surprise, the sellers almost certainly aren't Ukrainian (or Polish as one of them claimed) but, rather, they're Russian, and there's no guarantee that anything is actually for sale:









Undercover with Russia’s fake arms dealers


Russian media claims Ukraine is selling arms on the dark web, but the evidence suggests the ads are fake.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 23, 2022)

Another analysis on the failings of Russian armour. Interestingly, I served with the author (briefly) many moons ago:








The graveyard of Russian Tanks » Wavell Room


Russian tanks: Inherently dangerous tanks, crewed by demotivated soldiers led by inept commanders. Sergio Miller explains Russian Armour.




wavellroom.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

I'm flummoxed as to what's holding up the Germans. It's not like Ukraine has to necessarily take Germany's tanks. They just need German support of other countries' Leo2s to Ukraine.

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272769475/nazi-memories-holding-back-germany-zelensky


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 23, 2022)

Russian gas?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Russian gas?


You jest I know, but the Leo2 can use any diesel fuel available.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 23, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Russian gas?



Hasn't that already been kiboshed? Russian gas has essentially been cut off already, right?


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Hasn't that already been kiboshed? Russian gas has essentially been cut off already, right?


Ah, I assumed that was already off the table.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ah, I assumed that was already off the table.



Right, that's what I've read. The "technical problems" have yet to be solved, for some reason.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 24, 2022)

And some people question why Russia must be stopped, or why it is in our best interest. It is in humanities best interest, damn it!









U.N. Experts Find That War Crimes Have Been Committed in Ukraine


GENEVA — Russian soldiers have raped and tortured children in Ukraine, a United Nations-appointed panel of independent legal experts said in a damning statement Friday that concluded war crimes had been committed in the conflict. A three-person Commission of Inquiry set up in April to...




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 24, 2022)

Soldiers are threatening to shoot the families of Ukrainians if they don't vote in illegal referendums, report says


Illegal "referendums" are underway in the occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 24, 2022)

New nuclear threats raise risk from a 'cornered Putin': Experts


Ukrainian successes on the battlefield have not only pushed Russian troops back but now have pushed Putin further into a corner -- forcing him to take a series of dramatic steps to reinvigorate his brutal campaign: a sweeping military draft, labeled as a "partial mobilization," to surge...




www.yahoo.com

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## fubar57 (Sep 24, 2022)

It is really hard for me to believe that there is not one sane person in his inner sanctum. Yes...you surround yourself with like-minded people but surely one must see the benefits of taking this idiot out and winning the Nobel Peace Prize and thanks from the entire world

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## buffnut453 (Sep 24, 2022)

I find this map, showing the 4 regions that are undergoing the Russian referendum quite interesting:







The comparison of the pre-war regional boundaries with the occupied regions is of note. Roughly half of Donetsk and over one-third of Zaporizhzhia, including its capital, are still held by Ukraine. 

Given the inevitable "yes" "vote" in the referendum results, I wonder if this is Putin's way of trying to strike a deal. "We'll only take the bits of the regions that we occupy. Kyiv can keep the rest." To Russian eyes this might seem like a sound deal. To everyone else, it's laughable.

Alternatively, Putin could go whole-hog and claim every square foot of all four regions. Doing that would make the referendum even more ridiculous since people in the Ukrainian-held regions won't be participating at all. However, it would give Putin the "justification" (in his mind) to keep pushing to take all the territory of all 4 regions. The problem with that approach is that he's singularly failed to achieve that goal to-date, so there's a risk that, by betting the farm, he may lose it all. One can only hope!!!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 24, 2022)

How long before Gen Mizintsev is visited by HIMARS?

Dmitry Bulgakov: Putin fires deputy defence chief amid supply failures Dmitry Bulgakov: Putin fires deputy defence chief amid supply failures

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## buffnut453 (Sep 24, 2022)

Got to love this:

*Foreigners who fight for Russia 'given access to citizenship'*
_Earlier, we brought you the news that Putin had signed a new law meaning Russian soldiers who refuse to fight or disobey orders will now face ten years in prison.
Another law signed by the president today will grant foreigners who fight for the Russian military easier access to Russian citizenship.
Foreign citizens who sign a military contract of at least a year will be able to apply for citizenship without the usual requirements of being officially resident in the country for five years, local media reported._

Moscow has accused Kyiv of employing western mercenaries, claiming that foreigners rather than Ukrainians are doing the bulk of the fighting. Meanwhile, it's entirely legitimate for Moscow to employ foreign mercenaries...and to offer them a fast-track to citizenship.

The hypocrisy of Moscow is truly without limit.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

_LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The stridently pro-Kremlin editor of Russia's state-run RT news channel expressed anger on Saturday that enlistment officers were sending call-up papers to the wrong men, as frustration about a military mobilisation grew across Russia.

[...]

Now, it is also attracting criticism of the authorities from among the Kremlin's own official supporters, something almost unheard of in Russia since the invasion began seven months ago.

"It has been announced that privates can be recruited up to the age of 35. Summonses are going to 40-year-olds," the RT editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, railed on her Telegram channel.

"They're infuriating people, as if on purpose, as if out of spite. As if they'd been sent by Kyiv."

In another rare public sign of turmoil at the top, the Russian defence ministry said on Saturday the deputy minister in charge of logistics, four-star General Dmitry Bulgakov, had been replaced "for transfer to another role". It gave no further details.

[...]

Officials have said 300,000 troops are needed, with priority given to people with recent military experience and vital skills. The Kremlin has denied reports by two Russian news outlets based abroad - Novaya Gazeta Europe and Meduza - that the real target is more than 1 million._









Complaints about Russia's chaotic mobilization grow


Russia's first public mobilization since World War Two to shore up its faltering invasion of Ukraine has triggered a rush for the border by eligible men, arrests of protesters and criticism from the Kremlin's own official supporters.




www.reuters.com





It's as if the Apple Dumpling Gang are running the Russian military. These guys could screw up falling out of bed.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's as if the Apple Dumpling Gang are running the Russian military. These guys could screw up falling out of bed.



Don Knotts for Russian President. I'd vote for him!

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## fubar57 (Sep 24, 2022)

No bullets in his pistol....perfect

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## buffnut453 (Sep 24, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> No bullets in his pistol....perfect



I try!

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## fubar57 (Sep 24, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Sep 24, 2022)

Thinking about the partial mobilization and a few thousand untrained, angry, drunk, and some even armed draftees at the front. Thinking about a lack of veteran officer corps. Supply chain difficulties limiting resupply from a questionable inventory. Could the thinking be that a bigger armed mob will work and everything will be over by Christmas? 
It’s going to be interesting.


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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Russia targets infrastructure to slow Ukraine's advance as Kremlin-staged votes continue


Russian forces launch new strikes on Ukrainian cities as Kremlin-orchestrated votes continue in occupied regions of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Fault lines appear in Russia as the realities of Vladimir Putin's war come home


Russians book flights to leave their country after more than 300,000 are being called to fight in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Biden says US will never recognise annexation as soldiers collect votes 'door to door'


US President Joe Biden says Russian referendums aimed at annexing four occupied regions of Ukraine are a sham, as UN investigators find evidence of war crimes including executions and torture.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Moscow coercing people to back referendum on joining Russia, Ukrainian governor of Luhansk says


Strongarm tactics are being used in occupied Ukraine to swing the results of a forthcoming referendum on joining Russia, the governor of Luhansk region says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Russians conscripts get the beers in and drink themselves senseless


Videos show reluctant conscripts at recruitment offices and staging points hitting the bottle as military commanders try to coral them into order before boarding buses and planes.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Ukraine’s Defense Industry And The Prospect Of A Long War – Analysis


By Thomas Laffitte* (FPRI) — After more than six months of war, Russia and Ukraine are now preparing for a long period of hostilities, forcing each side to find long-term solutions for their …




www.eurasiareview.com

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## Marcel (Sep 24, 2022)

We can do a referendum, too

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russians conscripts get the beers in and drink themselves senseless
> 
> 
> Videos show reluctant conscripts at recruitment offices and staging points hitting the bottle as military commanders try to coral them into order before boarding buses and planes.
> ...



The video clips could be edited etc, but what jumped out at me from the linked article was this:



> In what is rapidly becoming a popular subgenre of Russian war videos, multiple clips depict Russian recruits getting hammered as they prepare to ship out for two weeks of basic training before being thrown onto the front lines.



I know the Russian government claimed that these are prior-service members only, but only two weeks of refresher training? Their reserve drills are already much scantier than what we in America associate with our Reserves and NG/ANG.

The Russians don't seem to realize how much desperation they're telegraphing to the world with this move. They also don't seem to have considered that the survivors of this tranche of recruits will come home mentally broken, physically broken, angry at a government that would waste their lives so, or a combination of all the above. I suspect we're about to see a significant rise in desertions, atrocities, suicides, and fraggings in the Russian military.

Putin's basically doubling-down on a pair of deuces, eight-high.

I feel sorry for those guys. They're about to experience something shattering.

ETA: I just wanted to say how much I appreciate all the info you've fed into this thread over the months.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

Also, regarding avoiding the Russian draft, this morning on the radio to work BBC was reporting that the line of Russian vehicles waiting to enter Georgia was 10 km (6 miles) long.

These guys are voting with their tires.


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## manta22 (Sep 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The video clips could be edited etc, but what jumped out at me from the linked article was this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Putin's basically doubling-down on a pair of deuces, eight-high."

No, aces and eights- Dead Man's Hand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Putin's basically doubling-down on a pair of deuces, eight-high."
> 
> No, aces and eights- Dead Man's Hand.



I don't think his hand is nearly that good, though I do agree with your point. Two pair aces-high is much better bluffing territory than what Putin is telegraphing now.

Announcing this call-up is essentially announcing that Russia is nearing the bottom of the barrel.

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## manta22 (Sep 24, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Putin's basically doubling-down on a pair of deuces, eight-high."
> 
> No, aces and eights- Dead Man's Hand.


For those who don't know, "Dead Man's Hand" were the cards Wild Bill Hickok was holding when he was shot from behind by Jack McCall in Deadwood, South Dakota in 1876.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

manta22 said:


> For those who don't know, "Dead Man's Hand" were the cards Wild Bill Hickok was holding when he was shot from behind by Jack McCall in Deadwood, South Dakota in 1876.



It was part of the logo I designed for a band I was in about 13 years ago.

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## fubar57 (Sep 24, 2022)

Hickok's hand was ace of spades and the ace of clubs, and the same suits for the eights. No 100% answer for the fifth card


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## GTX (Sep 24, 2022)

Russia accuses West of trying to 'stop the march of history' by providing aid to Ukraine


Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has used a speech at the UN to defend Moscow's war and rail against the West for supporting Ukraine. He has also warned Western leaders against interfering in China's moves in the Taiwan Strait.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Sep 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia accuses West of trying to 'stop the march of history' by providing aid to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has used a speech at the UN to defend Moscow's war and rail against the West for supporting Ukraine. He has also warned Western leaders against interfering in China's moves in the Taiwan Strait.
> ...


Pretty sure that China wants Putin to shut up and leave them out of this debacle...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pretty sure that China wants Putin to shut up and leave them out of this debacle...



Pretty sure they're also not happy about the Russians introducing referenda allowing for breakaway provinces to decide their own fate. That's the last thing China wants re: Taiwan.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure they're also not happy about the Russians introducing referenda allowing for breakaway provinces to decide their own fate. That's the last thing China wants re: Taiwan.


That's informative. Quite amusing too. Especially for Xi!
Talk about two birds with one stone.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 24, 2022)

The Russian Air Force Loses Up To Four Planes In One Day As Ukrainian Air-Defenses Advance


The Russian air force reportedly has had a very bad day. The Ukrainian defense ministry on Saturday claimed its forces shot down four Russian warplanes in 24 hours. An Su-34, two Su-30s and an Su-25.




www.forbes.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That's informative. Quite amusing too. Especially for Xi!
> Talk about two birds with one stone.



Probably three birds, when we consider how this war has affected the world's economy. Aside from the oil and grain issues, there's also the problem of consumer spending generally being slowed by wars. Coming on the back-end of the Covid recession, the Chinese cannot be happy. They need consumers and not refugees, and free trade rather than trade restrictions.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 24, 2022)

Nice!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 24, 2022)

If Germany can provide Gepards, with their logistical, spares availability and maintenance challenges, why not Leopards? 






Germany will deliver to Ukraine 6 additional Gepard self-propelled anti-aicraft vehicles | Defense News September 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


Germany will supply to Ukraine 6 more additional Gepard 35mm anti-aircraft self-propelled gun vehicles and 6,000 rounds of ammunition.




armyrecognition.com

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 24, 2022)

Great question, I don't understand their logic


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> Some info on the M-55S:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How will the M-55S’ L7 105mm gun perform against Russian T-72s? I believe early Cold War testing against captured Russian tanks was one of the reasons the British expedited development of the 120 mm rifled gun for the Chieftain, and Rheinmetall their Rh-120 smoothbore that replaced the L7 in pretty much everything else.

It is something that Germany has fielded some of the best tank guns, equal and often superior to whatever the enemy was bringing.









5 cm KwK 39 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












7.5 cm KwK 40 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












7.5 cm KwK 42 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












8.8 cm KwK 36 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












8.8 cm KwK 43 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












12.8 cm Pak 44 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












Rheinmetall Rh-120 - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 25, 2022)

Some more info about the four RuAF aircraft shot down. Also some 5 iranian drones and a cruise missile.

Also some problems going on with the conscription. Allegedly, rusty Aks are given to some recruits, some recruits came themselves a bit drunk and some fought with local police.









Ukraine Situation Report: Multiple Russian Aircraft Shot Down In A Day


The Russian Air Force had another bad day in the skies over Ukraine as Kyiv claims it downed four jets, drones, and a cruise missile.




www.thedrive.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure they're also not happy about the Russians introducing referenda allowing for breakaway provinces to decide their own fate. That's the last thing China wants re: Taiwan.



But then we’re back to the hypocrisy of totalitarian regimes. They want regions to have the freedom to choose their alignment…but only if that alignment corresponds with the totalitarian regime. Any other form of self-determination is week/evil/aggressive/a threat….or all of the above.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

CBC finds a ridiculous angle to lethal aid. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-weapons-ukraine-misuse-1.6386109
BBC dials it back.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-62983444

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Some more info about the four RuAF aircraft shot down. Also some 5 iranian drones and a cruise missile.
> 
> Also some problems going on with the conscription. Allegedly, rusty Aks are given to some recruits, some recruits came themselves a bit drunk and some fought with local police.
> 
> ...


Perhaps we’re seeing the mostly absent, yet large Russian Air Force finally arriving in force over Ukraine, just as UAF anti-air has reached expert levels of kit and skill, with resulting large Russian losses to come.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But then we’re back to the hypocrisy of totalitarian regimes. They want regions to have the freedom to choose their alignment…but only if that alignment corresponds with the totalitarian regime. Any other form of self-determination is week/evil/aggressive/a threat….or all of the above.



My point was more that even sham referenda are a nod to the international order and its status quo, which is what China will be seeking when it attempts to take back Taiwan. These referenda are, in Chinese eyes, reinforcing the norm that only a vote legitimizes a change of territory or masters.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My point was more that even sham referenda are a nod to the international order and its status quo, which is what China will be seeking when it attempts to take back Taiwan. These referenda are, in Chinese eyes, reinforcing the norm that only a vote legitimizes a change of territory or masters.



Agreed….they just entirely corrupt the process. It often seems like totalitarian regimes are afraid of confronting what they are. They can’t stand anyone who thinks differently than them. I suppose they look at democracies and say the same about us.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pretty sure they're also not happy about the Russians introducing referenda allowing for breakaway provinces to decide their own fate. That's the last thing China wants re: Taiwan.


Russia has/had something the West/Europe needed, cheap oil and gas. China doesn’t have anything the West needs besides a source for cheap electronics and consumer goods. We can source that stuff anywhere. For example, Vietnam and Malaysia.









Vietnam likely to replace China as factory of the world in near future


As Omicron flare-ups in China's manufacturing hubs, like Guangdong Province and Shanghai, disrupted supply chains, Vietnam's Q1 economic figures appear to show promising outlook amid the pandemic




www.business-standard.com













Malaysia emerges as the biggest winner of the US-China semiconductor war


Malaysia has made a dark horse entry into the semiconductor industry. The country stands to benefit from the ongoing China-US trade war.




tfiglobalnews.com





Meanwhile China has a demographic timebomb and ponzi property market that will likely scupper the country. China uses the money they gain from selling us junk to build a massive military and expansionist foreign policy. Why would the West want to stay with that?

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## WARSPITER (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Meanwhile China has a demographic timebomb and ponzi property market that will likely scupper the country. China uses the money they gain from selling us junk to build a massive military and expansionist foreign policy. Why would the West want to stay with that?


It seems China is following in the footsteps of the USSR - a distinct lack of thought for future infrastructure / training (workforce) 
coupled with far too much spending on their military. The last straw for the USSR was the so called Star Wars program which
they knew they could not match because of the economic drain. I still don't know if the Star Wars program was all a con anyway.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Russia has/had something the West/Europe needed, cheap oil and gas. China doesn’t have anything the West needs besides a source for cheap electronics and consumer goods. We can source that stuff anywhere. For example, Vietnam and Malaysia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Of course China is already somewhat isolated, and of course that will only worsen after an invasion of Taiwan. But my point is that China is already irritated that Russia's invasion has brought such concerns front and center -- and impelled China to commit to statements which can later be thrown back in its face.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 25, 2022)

Might want to point out that Communist China doesn't wish to take back Taiwan.

The Communists aim to finish their conquest of China - Taiwan is all that remains of the original Republic of China government since 1949.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Sigh, still no Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.

Germany’s Chancellor Has ‘a Lot’ for Ukraine. But No Battle Tanks.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sigh, still no Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.
> 
> Germany’s Chancellor Has ‘a Lot’ for Ukraine. But No Battle Tanks.



Well maybe Canada should send theirs until Germany get’s their shit together.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 25, 2022)

Does Germany retain the right to decide on Canadian Leopard disposition like they do on European based Leopards?


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## fubar57 (Sep 25, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-weapons-supply-lines-expanded-1.6594582

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sigh, still no Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.
> 
> Germany’s Chancellor Has ‘a Lot’ for Ukraine. But No Battle Tanks.


In Germany's defence, I don't see the USA offering Abrams, or the UK Challenger 2s, or France Leclercs, or Italy Arietes or even any of the export operators of any of these offering them.

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Vladimir Putin's mobilisation plan backfires as analysts pinpoint flaws in desperate move

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Winter's approach sets clock ticking for Ukraine and Russia


The onset of autumnal weather, with rains making fields too muddy for tanks, is beginning to cloud Ukraine's efforts to take back more Russian-held territory before winter freezes the battlefields, a Washington-based think tank says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Russia is holding referendums to claim more parts of Ukraine. The West says they are illegal shams — here's why


Mirroring Russia's earlier land grabs in Crimea, the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine are a violation of international law that represent a significant escalation in Moscow's war, according to the West.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

The dolphins of Kharkiv are getting used to the sounds of war


Evacuating the five mammals from the local aquarium is almost impossible now — the belugas are too big, and the youngest dolphin is only six months old and still needs to be fed every 15 minutes or so.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> In Germany's defence, I don't see the USA offering Abrams, or France Leclercs or Italy Arietes or even any of the export operators of any of these offering them.


True.

But no one else is promising that much and then holding or delating so much.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> In Germany's defence, I don't see the USA offering Abrams, or France Leclercs or Italy Arietes or even any of the export operators of any of these offering them.


I thinks it‘s Germany‘s apparent blocking other countries’ offering their Leopard 2 tanks that’s more annoying. Germany could have facilitated the restoration of Spain’s proffered Leo2s, for example.









Germany blocks Spain from transferring Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine - Defence View


Germany has officially banned the transfer of Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. Earlier it was reported that Spain plans to send 40 Leopard A4 tanks to Ukraine.




www.defenceview.in













Swiss say Germany can freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks sold back to Rheinmetall


Switzerland's defence procurement office said on Friday it had given the go-ahead for Germany to freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks previously sold back to defence group Rheinmetall.




www.reuters.com





I recall that Poland considered donating its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as their Abrams began arriving, but again Germany apparently refuses to support the move.









Pentagon Explained When Ukraine Will Receive Western Abrams and Leopard 2 Tanks | Defense Express


The supply of main battle tanks and IFVs to Ukraine by allies is one of the key factors in the issue of rearmament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces




en.defence-ua.com

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I thinks it‘s Germany‘s apparent blocking other countries’ offering their Leopard 2 tanks that’s more annoying. Germany could have facilitated the restoration of Spain’s proffered Leo2s, for example.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Indirectly they are assisting tanks to get there:









Germany, Slovakia sign tank swap deal to arm Ukraine


Older Leopard 2 tanks will backfill a batch of Soviet infantry fighting vehicles that Slovakia is sending to Ukraine.




www.defensenews.com





I suspect part of the reason why no-one is supplying western tanks is two-fold:


Ex-Russian tanks (be they T-72s or otherwise0 are already in service in Ukraine and thus logistics/sustainment, ammunition and crew training is already available - something that would be needed for newer types (remember that a tank is not like a car where you just throw someone the keys...); and
Whereas plenty of munitions are being supplied, something like a tank, especially if one is knocked out by the Russians and photographed is a pretty powerful image and one that could conceivably play into Russian propaganda re 'NATO's war on Russia'/damage Western support & resolve ("Whoa...Russia just knocked out one of our tanks...maybe they are stronger than we thought..."

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## SaparotRob (Sep 25, 2022)

The thing about the Abrams is logistical support. Unless we’re using them as pillboxes.

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Further to my last, remember that something like a Gepard can be construed as being purely defensive whereas a tank can be deemed offensive thus furthering Russia's propaganda messages.

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The thing about the Abrams is logistical support. Unless we’re using them as pillboxes.


Same goes for other types too...and for fighter aircraft (though maybe not as pillboxes).

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Further to my last, remember that something like a Gepard can be construed as being purely defensive whereas a tank can be deemed offensive thus furthering Russia's propaganda messages.


 But why does Germany care what Russia thinks? Heck, even the neutral Swiss are making noise about Leopard tanks.









Swiss say Germany can freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks sold back to Rheinmetall


Switzerland's defence procurement office said on Friday it had given the go-ahead for Germany to freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks previously sold back to defence group Rheinmetall.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But why does Germany care what Russia thinks?


Does that even require an answer?


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## SaparotRob (Sep 25, 2022)

Perhaps we can send some Abrams engines to Ukrainian tank servicing centers. Just to give mechanics something to start tinkering around with.


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## GTX (Sep 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Perhaps we can send some Abrams engines to Ukrainian tank servicing centers. Just to give mechanics something to start tinkering around with.


Its getting off-topic but the biggest issue with AGT1500 engines from the Abrams is the supply of parts from Honeywell.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 25, 2022)

Any NATO tank sent to Ukraine requires a series of events, regardless of who's tank it is.
First of all, training. Western tanks have different crewing, optics and such that will require training to make the tank effective on the battlefield.
Second, ammunition. Western tanks will require their own ammunition supplies.
Third, logistics. The tanks will need mechanics, which will need to be trained on the type in order to keep it battle ready and let's not forget spare parts.

All of this cannot be done overnight and there is no magic wand to make it happen.

Providing Ukraine with Soviet/Russian armor allows a seamless transfer into action as well as an infinite supply of ammunition that the Russians keep providing.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Are there any more T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks out there that can be sent to Ukraine? Iraq is a big operator of the type. Perhaps the US can broker a deal? It’s too bad India is on the fence, as they have thousands of Russian designed, locally produced tanks.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 25, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> True.
> 
> But no one else is promising that much and then holding or delating so much.



Has Germany promised more than anyone else?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are there any more T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks out there that can be sent to Ukraine? Iraq is a big operator of the type. Perhaps the US can broker a deal? It’s too bad India is on the fence, as they have thousands of Russian designed, locally produced tanks.



You seem to complain about everyone not supplying one thing or another, but ignore the logistics and political aspects if it.

I suggest you write the Canadian government and tell them to do more. Send tanks, fighters, bombers, and artillery pieces. Hell, send the Canadian Mounties.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 25, 2022)

More protests against the draft, this time in Dagestan. Some of the comments from people involved in the protest make it abundantly clear that at least some Russians understand what's happening in Ukraine and that the invasion was nothing more than a ruse by Putin to justify his land grab. 









Ukraine war: Protests in Russian Dagestan region against new draft


Demonstrators clashed with security officials, in rare violent backlashes against police.



www.bbc.com

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## J_P_C (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are there any more T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks out there that can be sent to Ukraine? Iraq is a big operator of the type. Perhaps the US can broker a deal? It’s too bad India is on the fence, as they have thousands of Russian designed, locally produced tanks.


around 400 more in Poland (half of them in PT91 standard), i believe will be send to Ukraine as soon as US will start M1 deliveries. Polish crews training is already in progress in Poznan with older version of M1s delivered from US stocks

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Its getting off-topic but the biggest issue with AGT1500 engines from the Abrams is the supply of parts from Honeywell.



Not to mention its high rate of fuel consumption.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

Around Kherson, this next week's weather forecast is four days of rain. Around Kharkiv, five days. I doubt the Russians will be able to mount another offensive until the mud freezes, usually around January or so.

This will of course hamper Ukrainian offensive potential as well. It looks like the next two or three months will settle down into static warfare, until the ground freezes.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Around Kherson, this next week's weather forecast is four days of rain. Around Kharkiv, five days. I doubt the Russians will be able to mount another offensive until the mud freezes, usually around January or so.
> 
> This will of course hamper Ukrainian offensive potential as well. It looks like the next two or three months will settle down into static warfare, until the ground freezes.


I suppose the same applies to any Ukrainian offensive. Too bad, as they have the momentum.

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## MiTasol (Sep 25, 2022)

Roger Waters concerts canceled in Poland – DW – 09/25/2022


Roger Waters' concerts in Poland have been canceled after he commented on the war in Ukraine. Krakow City Council has said it will discuss declaring the Pink Floyd musician "persona non grata."




www.dw.com

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## Glider (Sep 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Any NATO tank sent to Ukraine requires a series of events, regardless of who's tank it is.
> First of all, training. Western tanks have different crewing, optics and such that will require training to make the tank effective on the battlefield.
> Second, ammunition. Western tanks will require their own ammunition supplies.
> Third, logistics. The tanks will need mechanics, which will need to be trained on the type in order to keep it battle ready and let's not forget spare parts.
> ...


The one advantage of General Winter setting in is that the intensity of the fighting is likely to reduce a touch and that gives the Ukraine 6 months to get any training needed for Leopard 2, M1 or F16.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 25, 2022)

I honestly doubt that the onset of the wet months of Fall and then Winter setting in will curb the Ukrainian offensive.

It may slow their momentum, but Russia best not assume that bad weather is going to keep them safe.

Let's spin the way-back wheel to the Winter War and observe how the Soviets fared against Finland.
Ukraine (who is also now a member of the f**k around and find out club) has the home-field advantage, the same tenacity and the same goals as Finland did.

I honestly pity any Russians who are still in Ukraine when Winter sets in.

*almost forgot* I was also going to touch on a previously mentioned fact that it was the Ukrainian regiment in the Red Army during WWII that was ferocious and spearheaded most of their battles against German and Axis elements. 

Which also seems to be a bit of history that Russia has forgotten.









1st Ukrainian Front - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## SaparotRob (Sep 25, 2022)

I doubt Russian troops are any better equipped than they were in 1939.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I doubt Russian troops are any better equipped than they were in 1939.



One thing I read and saw on video today is that the new conscripts reporting with personal gear -- including guns -- see that personal property confiscated by the Russian army.

Another thing I saw was the video posted upthread (by 

 GTX
iirc) showing the AKs currently being issued ... covered in rust from barrel to buttstock.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 25, 2022)

Winter will be harder on the Russian side, especially those on the wrong side of the Dnipro.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Winter will be harder on the Russian side, especially those on the wrong side of the Dnipro.



Given their supply problems -- bad enough that the general in charge of that for the army has been relieved of duty -- I'm thinking that they're going to have problems staying warm: fuel for portable heaters, jackets and winter boots for the grunts, replacement parts for vehicles (because bad weather is hard on vehicles).

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I honestly doubt that the onset of the wet months of Fall and then Winter setting in will curb the Ukrainian offensive. It may slow their momentum, but Russia best not assume that bad weather is going to keep them safe.


I agree. The UAF‘s tanks, AFVs and IFVs will need to stick to the roads, but they won’t get stuck in massive traffic jams for lack of fuel and organization like the Russians outside Kyiv. Instead smaller batches of UAF armour will rush the border roads, with drone-guided truck-mounted HIMARS hitting everything from well back.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm thinking that they're going to have problems staying warm: fuel for portable heaters, jackets and winter boots for the grunts…


They’ll steal from the locals. As Hitler said, all of the enemy will starve before one of his own goes hungry.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 25, 2022)

Lots of side roads in the rural areas of Ukraine that have been maintained by the farmers which would be accessible and passable by military equipment.

In WWII, many of the same areas that are currently being contested, were poor peasant cooperatives, cultivated by hand or by horse with with virtually no infrastructure, so the Germans (and Red Army) were bogged down in impassable mud if they strayed from a major highway (and even then, it was sketchy).

In the current setting, if equipment strayed from any of the roads (major or otherwise) and tried to cut across a farm field or open terrain, then they'll most certainly bog down.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Lots of side roads in the rural areas of Ukraine that have been maintained by the farmers which would be accessible and passable by military equipment.


And better terrain for the UAF’s T-72 tanks vs. heavy Abrams or Leo2s.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> They’ll steal from the locals. As Hitler said, all of the enemy will starve before one of his own goes hungry.



Relying on that for supply doesn't strike me as advisable. Ask Hitler about Jan 1942 and the retreat from Moscow.

To the point -- these 300,000 call-ups, are they getting winter gear? There's not much food growing in the fields in January, that's another thin reed. Does your equipment have adequate supplies of low-viscosity oil to enable reliable winter ops?

This is why the main point of my post was about logistics, and I only put up the pics of bogged vehicles later. There's a lot more to winter ops than mobility itself.

I think the Ukrainians will keep pushing forward, albeit more slowly, because they've got better motivation -- kith and kin needing to be freed. I hope and think that they're equipped for this sort of thing. I do wonder if the Russians haven't screwed this up as well.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope and think that (the UAF) is equipped for this sort of thing.


I have no doubt that Ukraine will have all the winter equipment and winter fighting kit/training they’ll need.









Denmark To Provide Winter Gear To Ukraine Forces


During a meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod announced that Denmark would supply winter military uniforms for Ukrainian soldiers and agreed to help in the restoration of the Mykolaiv region damaged by Russian attacks. So far, more than 25,000...




worldcrunch.com













Aid earmarked for Ukraine includes cold weather gear


President Joe Biden approved another $600 million transfer of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine Sept. 15, 2022. Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Ge




www.aerotechnews.com













NATO Calls for Winter Equipment for Ukrainian Soldiers


NATO has called on allied nations to provide military aid to the Ukrainian troops for the upcoming winter.




www.thedefensepost.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I have no doubt that Ukraine will have all the winter equipment and winter fighting kit/training they’ll need.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Right, I've read about a lot of non-lethal aid, including from Germany, is the form of uniforms, clothing, boots, etc. And it too is pretty damned important. I think you're right. Part of it has been the absolute incompetence of not just Russian logistics but their doctrine of logistics itself. In other words, it's not just a personnel failing, but it's that failing playing fire with a doctrinal neglect of supply, I think.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 25, 2022)

Ukraine is going to rock this winter.



Here‘s how Russia wants us to see their winter preparedness.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 25, 2022)

I'm wondering how these units shown are faring now.


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## Jabberwocky (Sep 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How will the M-55S’ L7 105mm gun perform against Russian T-72s? I believe early Cold War testing against captured Russian tanks was one of the reasons the British expedited development of the 120 mm rifled gun for the Chieftain, and Rheinmetall their Rh-120 smoothbore that replaced the L7 in pretty much everything else.



Depends on the ammunition being fired. And where it hits (even frontally). And what kind of T-72 it is.

Western powers APFSDS in service in the early 1980s** (third generation designs basically) were intended to be used against T-72A and early T-80 variants with early generations of ERA. Reportedly most of these could penetrate T-72A and early T-80s out past 2000m (penetration around 400mm of LOS RHA equivalent at this distance), some sources saying penetration possible at 4000m plus. These tanks were pretty much immune to 105mm HEAT rounds frontally though.

Problem comes with later T-72B, T-80B and T-80U (built from the mid-1980s). These had up-armoured turrets with different composite arrays and Kontakt-5 second generation ERA, which really added to the protection - some sources say roughly +20%, some say as much as +50%. Frontally, protection against APFSDS is estimated at anywhere from 550mm to 1000mm.

Fourth generation APFSDS (US M900 DU round, Israeli M426 and 429, bunch of European rounds) fielded from the late 1980s/early 1990s onward are supposed to perform better (and were designed with heavy ERA in mind). Penetration is reportedly as high as 570mm at 2000m. Rounds fielded in the early 2000s might even be better than that again.

What could they do against a modernised T-72BM/T-80U/T-80BV with Relik ERA? I really don't know. It's a question that will be answered on the battlefield.

**In 1981 or 1982s, Western ammo designers reportedly had a collective "Oh shit" moment when Russian tank testing data was 'acquired' and the generation of ammunition being just fielded was clearly not going to perform against the mid 1980s generations of Russian tanks. So there were lots of new ammo designs in the early to mid 1980s and performance claims get a little wild (stuff is STILL classified, so it's hard to work out). US came out with a couple of DU penetrators, the UK got very interested in super dense alloys all of a sudden and the Germans started shopping around everywhere.

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## at6 (Sep 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Its getting off-topic but the biggest issue with AGT1500 engines from the Abrams is the supply of parts from Honeywell.


Honeywell can't even make a decent thermostat. Can engines or parts be any better?

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## GrauGeist (Sep 26, 2022)

Honeywell's engine division is part of Lycoming, so it's a different beast entirely.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 26, 2022)

Russia urges public to provide warm clothes for soldiers in Donbas as winter approaches


According to Russian telegram channels, Russia is urging the public to provide soldiers in Donbas with warm clothes as winter begins to close in, as




euroweeklynews.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 26, 2022)

_The news of Russia's soldiers in Donbas lacking warm clothes as winter approaches was reposted by the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin._

Shades of 1941? "Winter clothing? It'll be over before snow fly." You'd think the Russians, of all people, would know better.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> _The news of Russia's soldiers in Donbas lacking warm clothes as winter approaches was reposted by the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin._
> 
> Shades of 1941? "Winter clothing? It'll be over before snow fly." You'd think the Russians, of all people, would know better.


The Russians will steal whatever provisions and winter clothing they want from the locals.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians will steal whatever provisions and winter clothing they want from the locals.



Given that many will have been made refugees, that's -- again, since you ignored it the first time I wrote it-- a thin reed upon which to base plans. How much good food does an abandoned or destroyed house have? Better hope the fire didn't reach the closet.

If they do as you argue here, they're even dumber than I thought.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 26, 2022)

Not surprised at all about not being equipped for winter operations. The Russians never learn. I had Russian soldiers trying to trade me for my winter boots and buy them winter boots because they only summer issue in Kosovo.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> since you ignored it the first time I wrote it-- a thin reed upon which to base plans.


No one owes anyone their attention nor a reply. That said, I have not suggested that such theft will be effective, only that like most invaders they will try to live off the land through theft and pillaging, to the detriment of the locals.


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## Glider (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Russians will steal whatever provisions and winter clothing they want from the locals.


True but by now the Russian troops are currently pretty static and at a guess, most of what could usefully be used has probably already been stolen. There may not be that much left to 'aquire'

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Not surprised at all about not being equipped for winter operations. The Russians never learn. I had Russian soldiers trying to trade me for my winter boots and buy them winter boots because they only summer issue in Kosovo.


Interestingly, during the Second World War, Germans would take the winter boots off of dead Russians. In 1941-45 the Russians understood winter kit, whilst the invaders, expecting a short war did not. Seems the roles have reversed.

I suppose the regional winters are different, but I wonder if the Finns could teach the Ukrainians anything about winter fighting? Of course when this war is over, it will be the Ukrainians that will teach everyone else on how to fight and defeat the Russians.

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## J_P_C (Sep 26, 2022)

according to freshly revealed news some of freshly conscripted man has been send directly to the frontline....

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> according to freshly revealed news some of freshly conscripted man has been send directly to the frontline....


Damn, these guys are screwed. It reminds me of stories of Russians troops heading to the front lines in 1914-1917 with nothing but farm tools. 

_By December, 1914, the Russian Army had 6,553,000 men. However, they only had 4,652,000 rifles. "Untrained troops were ordered into battle without adequate arms or ammunition. And because the Russian Army had about one surgeon for every 10,000 men, many wounded of its soldiers died from wounds that would have been treated on the Western Front. With medical staff spread out across a 500 mile front, the likelihood of any Russian soldier receiving any medical treatment was close to zero". (12) Russia and the First World War_

Good point above about combat medics. I expect the Russians today, and especially the separatists are short on those in Ukraine.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 26, 2022)

Advance eastwards from the southern fringes of the Oskil river seems to be picking up speed. Russian aligned sources reporting Ukrainian forces now in control of Ridkodub and Nove and actively pushing east and north. Ukrainian forces also making gains into Lyman. Fighting is heavy and both sides are committing reinforcements. Some Russian sources expect Nove to be recaptured today.

The AFU advances, if they manage to be held, almost put Lyman into a pocket. If the Ukranians advance a couple more km eastward, then getting out of Lyman is going to get real difficult, real fast. Retreat gets channeled into a pair of very narrow roads going east, as the front is immediately to the south and there is a river to the north forming a natural bottleneck only 2 or 3 km wide.

I'd expect a withdrawal eastwards from Lyman in short order, perhaps using the Zherebets river as the next logical anchor for a defensive line. I'm not a military expert, but potentially Ukraine advances another 5-10km East and North in the next day or two - although clearing the pocket (if one is created) could take some time.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No one owes anyone their attention nor a reply.



I did not say you owed a reply. I pointed out your elision because it seems to ignore some inconvenient facts. But hey, we'd all like the Russian to mount shoestring ops.



Admiral Beez said:


> That said, I have not suggested that such theft will be effective, only that like most invaders they will try to live off the land through theft and pillaging, to the detriment of the locals.



Yeah, it won't be effective. Didn't work for the Germans in 1941 either.

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## hawkeye2an (Sep 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Roger Waters concerts canceled in Poland – DW – 09/25/2022
> 
> 
> Roger Waters' concerts in Poland have been canceled after he commented on the war in Ukraine. Krakow City Council has said it will discuss declaring the Pink Floyd musician "persona non grata."
> ...


Love Roger's early music, his politics have cost him a lot. Some of his later output is unlistenable because of it. Some musicians have such a huge platform they can't ignore.

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## hawkeye2an (Sep 26, 2022)

US, partners meeting on Sept. 28 on industrial strategies for arming Ukraine - Breaking Defense


The meeting “will include a call for production support for things like gun barrels, ball bearings, and steel casings,” as well as obsolescent parts and microchips, a senior defense official said.




breakingdefense.com

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## J_P_C (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Damn, these guys are screwed. It reminds me of stories of Russians troops heading to the front lines in 1914-1917 with nothing but farm tools.
> 
> _By December, 1914, the Russian Army had 6,553,000 men. However, they only had 4,652,000 rifles. "Untrained troops were ordered into battle without adequate arms or ammunition. And because the Russian Army had about one surgeon for every 10,000 men, many wounded of its soldiers died from wounds that would have been treated on the Western Front. With medical staff spread out across a 500 mile front, the likelihood of any Russian soldier receiving any medical treatment was close to zero". (12) Russia and the First World War_
> 
> Good point above about combat medics. I expect the Russians today, and especially the separatists are short on those in Ukraine.


i think reality of ru army is even more screwed - i don't think they have any program of training combat medics at all and medical training of soldiers (first aid) is none as well, which perfectly corresponding to first aid kits condition they are issuing - lucky ones have kits but all are older than 30 years - manufactured during bright times of SU existence

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

Supporting your troops with proper clothing, medical care and food should be top of mind.

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## Glider (Sep 26, 2022)

You have to doff your hat to the second video, it takes a special kind of person to do what she does. Her and the countless others in a similar situation. 

Total respect

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## wlewisiii (Sep 26, 2022)

Seriously cool









A Ukrainian Teenager Invents a Drone That Can Detect Land Mines


Seventeen-year-old Igor Klymenko worked on his invention while sheltering in a basement from Russian attacks




www.smithsonianmag.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 26, 2022)

Been out for some days, catching up thanks to all your posts 

I think this has not been posted, apologies if its repeated.








Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia can't train or support them | CNN


Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.




edition.cnn.com

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## buffnut453 (Sep 26, 2022)

Vladimir Putin grants full Russian citizenship to NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden
My question is....when will Snowden receive his call-up papers. Please, oh PLEASE, let it be very, VERY SOON!!!!!

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 26, 2022)

Re: winter clothing

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## Dimlee (Sep 26, 2022)

_"For his part, Zaluzhny is girding for a long and bloody slog. "Knowing what I know firsthand about the Russians, our victory will not be final," he told TIME. "Our victory will be an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next war."_








Inside the Ukrainian Counterstrike That Turned the Tide of the War


It now seems possible that General Valeriy Zaluzhny's army could achieve victory




time.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 26, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"For his part, Zaluzhny is girding for a long and bloody slog. "Knowing what I know firsthand about the Russians, our victory will not be final," he told TIME. "Our victory will be an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next war."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Great stuff!

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

Ukraine says two more mass burial sites have been found in Izium after it was recaptured from Russian forces


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two more mass burial sites have been discovered in the same town where authorities uncovered a large burial site next to a cemetery earlier this month, following a months-long Russian occupation.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

European leaders divided on giving asylum to fleeing Russians


As thousands look to leave Russia following Vladimir Putin's troop mobilisation, European nations are divided on whether to welcome those fleeing the draft.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

Police open fire during protests against Putin conscription drive in Russia's Dagestan


Despite its small population, more troops from Dagestan have reportedly died fighting in Ukraine than from anywhere else in Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

Putin raised the threat, but what are Russia's nuclear capabilities?


President Vladimir Putin says he will defend Russia's territory with every means at his disposal, and it's put the threat of nuclear war back into focus.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

A Tale of Two Former Soviet Republics (Or: How Much is Ukraine Getting in Trans-Atlantic Military Aid?)

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

Lithuania has already handed over fifty M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)

FFS!!!









Russian Patriarch Kirill Says Dying In Ukraine 'Washes Away All Sins'


Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, has told his followers that "sacrifice in the course of carrying out your military duty washes away all sins."




www.rferl.org

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## GTX (Sep 26, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Does that make one an ace +1? Surely infantry get scores for air kills?

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## J_P_C (Sep 26, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Sep 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> European leaders divided on giving asylum to fleeing Russians
> 
> 
> As thousands look to leave Russia following Vladimir Putin's troop mobilisation, European nations are divided on whether to welcome those fleeing the draft.
> ...


Hand them a load of rusty blunderbusses (blunderbae?) and send them back to the Motherland.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 26, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Hand them a load of rusty blunderbusses (blunderbae?) and send them back to the Motherland.



Since it originates from a Dutch word, surely it should be blunderbussen?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 26, 2022)

The phrase "couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery" springs to mind:









Ukraine war: Russia admits mobilisation errors, amid growing public opposition


Reports say people with no military experience, or who are too old or disabled, are being enlisted.



www.bbc.com

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## Snautzer01 (Sep 26, 2022)

Reliving good ole Russia from the ones that do not want to fight is not in our interest. I will be the ones breaking the lines and cause chaos when pushed. Getting considerable bodies of men behind the lines might be problem.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The phrase "couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery" springs to mind:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don’t understand Russia. They look like us, have similar European origins, but can’t do anything well. Why are concepts such as democracy, incorruptibility, personal freedom, free speech and basic rights, freedom of the press, economic liberalism, etc. so foreign to the Russians? All of their European neighbours less, for now Belarus have this, including Poland and the Baltic trio. Russia has defeated every invader since the Mongols…. they‘re a victorious nation, but act like defeatist isolationists, always seeking respect. What’s wrong with the Russia headpiece?


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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 26, 2022)



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## MiTasol (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t understand Russia. They look like us, have similar European origins, *but can’t do anything well*. Why are concepts such as democracy, incorruptibility, personal freedom, free speech and basic rights, freedom of the press, economic liberalism, etc. so foreign to the Russians? All of their European neighbours less, for now Belarus have this, including Poland and the Baltic trio. Russia has defeated every invader since the Mongols…. they‘re a victorious nation, but act like defeatist isolationists, always seeking respect. What’s wrong with the Russia headpiece?



Obviously you have never seen the little radials in the Yak 50/55 and Su26, or those planes themselves or watched the SU-27 and MiG-29 aerobatics that showed aerodynamic control far better than what the west had at the same time. Like all countries they do some things great and some things are cluster flucks.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t understand Russia. They look like us, have similar European origins, but can’t do anything well. Why are concepts such as democracy, incorruptibility, personal freedom, free speech and basic rights, freedom of the press, economic liberalism, etc. so foreign to the Russians? All of their European neighbours less, for now Belarus have this, including Poland and the Baltic trio. Russia has defeated every invader since the Mongols…. they‘re a victorious nation, but act like defeatist isolationists, always seeking respect. What’s wrong with the Russia headpiece?


Maybe they're not getting enough fiber.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does that make one an ace +1? Surely infantry get scores for air kills?


He can paint rings on the barrel!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The phrase "couldn't organize a piss-up in a brewery" springs to mind:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Once again, right from Hitler's playbook.

Hitler Putin: how goes the war?
General: we are losing...WAIT, I mean we are not able to advance in the right direction and we do not have enough soldiers left to advance in the direction you want.
Hitler Putin: ...
General: ...
Hitler Putin: send in the Volkssturm!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> and to a certain American…..


Let’s not fall into the quadmire of US politics and thus risk having this thread shut down. I’m less interested in Russian politics, and more referring to the Russian national mind, way of thinking/living and culture. What makes Russians feel so inferior that they must use such false bravado and invade their neighbours who are doing nothing to threaten Russia beyond pursuing liberty and happiness.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> and to a certain American political party.
> 
> You should travel and find out what a lot of foreigners think of the current situation in the US. Some love it, some hate it and some who love it fear for its short term future.
> 
> Seventy five years ago the greatest nation on earth, now rapidly moving towards a dysfunctional banana republic. No other empire has crashed so quick. No other country has impeached a president for having sex with a consenting adult. Already there is talk of impeaching the current president (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/25/...iden-impeachment-house-republicans/index.html). If that happens it will quite likely be because he is spending future tax cuts for the billionaires in Ukraine as that is what one politician in Arizona is openly saying is wrong with the current administration. If he, and others, get their way American aid to Ukraine will end this year.



And what does anyone of this have to do with the war in Ukraine? 

Such political discussion has zero, zilch, nada to do with the topic. The politics rule was eased, but not removed. 

Let’s not open up Pandora’s box here and ruin an otherwise civil and good thread.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Obviously you have never seen the little radials in the Yak 50/55 and Su26, or those planes themselves or watched the SU-27 and MiG-29 aerobatics that showed aerodynamic control far better than what the west had at the same time. Like all countries they do some things great and some things are cluster flucks.


Excellent point. In the right hands, such as Ukrainian the combat aircraft of Russia can find strong success. I’m so used to seeing MiGs, Sukhois and Yaks falling to everyone from the Israelis, US/RAF over Iraq, etc., etc.


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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t understand Russia. They look like us, have similar European origins, but can’t do anything well. Why are concepts such as democracy, incorruptibility, personal freedom, free speech and basic rights, freedom of the press, economic liberalism, etc. so foreign to the Russians?


Centuries of oppression, inferior education (if any at all), suppression of individual initiative, no opportunity to develop the skills, reflexes, and traditions needed to support a modern liberal democracy, to name a few. People inured to survival under one form or another of totalitarian society for a millennium are susceptible to bunker mentality, xenophobia, and "black market" habits of subverting the social contract. Distrust prevails. Strongmen thrive. Oppression is self perpetuating..



Admiral Beez said:


> Russia has defeated every invader since the Mongols…. they‘re a victorious nation, but act like defeatist isolationists, always seeking respect. *What’s wrong with the Russia headpiece?*


See above.

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## at6 (Sep 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> FFS!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Let the dirty old sh*t practice what he's preaching.

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## Glider (Sep 26, 2022)

Russia seems to have lost another front-line quality division.



The Ukrainian Army Reportedly Destroyed Another Russian Division



Its also notable that one of Russia's few allies is turning against it or is at least going more public with what has previously been muted criticism.

_Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said Monday that it will not recognize the potential Russian annexation of eastern Ukrainian regions through the referendums, Reuters reported. This is not the first time that Kazakhstan, which, along with Russia, is a member of the NATO-style Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has broken with Russian positions on aspects of the war.

In June, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that his country would not recognize the self-proclaimed independence of two Russian-backed separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. He also called for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and offered help with mediation, according to Russian state media_

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> _Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry said Monday that it will not recognize the potential Russian annexation of eastern Ukrainian regions through the referendums, _


No surprise here. They could be next on Russia’s hit list. And, most of all, Kazakhstan has bet its future and security on China, so whatever China says they‘re likely to follow suit.









China offers Kazakhstan security support, opposes 'external forces'


China is willing to increase "law enforcement and security" cooperation with neighbouring Kazakhstan and help oppose interference by "external forces", China's foreign minister said on Monday, after violent protests in the Central Asian country.




www.reuters.com





Russia's failure in this war is a huge uptick for China.









Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along? | Geopolitical Monitor


The best outcome of the Ukraine invasion for Beijing is a weakened, isolated, and dependent Russia. Perhaps this was the plan all along.



www.geopoliticalmonitor.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

This war has given me a new appreciation for the MiG-29. Do we know how many Ukraine has received and how many more are potentially available for Ukraine? Did Poland ever hand over its MiGs from March 2022? What about Bulgaria, Czech, etc? Are the USAF’s MiG-29s still in service and not so modernized as to be unfamiliar? Could Peru be persuaded to part with their MiG-29s through some US security guarantee? Perhaps not.

Last month this article below reported that Slovakia will donate all their MiG-29s, but I’m not sure if this has already occurred. I originally saw reports of this back in April.









Slovakia Retires MiG-29 Freeing Fulcrum Jets For Ukraine


The MiG-29 Era in the Slovak Air Force has come to an end. We joined them air-to-air before they were retired. The farewell of the MiG-29 Fulcrum, from




theaviationist.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They will certainly be the first ones to desert or surrender.


Agreed, and good for them too. This lad was smart, surrender to the first Ukrainians you see, and with luck your mother will see you in person again.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 27, 2022)

Donetsk front update. 

Ukrainian motorised and light mech (APCs/IFVs) infantry forces continued to drive east and north from Oskil, reportedly now penetrating to within a few kilometers of the Zherebets River and effectively pocketing Lyman from the north. Ukranian sources reporting they may have outrun their tube artillery support (suggesting an advance of more than 20km).

Another attack is reportedly developing to the south east of Lyman, pushing northwards. Russian sources report light infantry elements (mostly foot, some motorised) have advanced through the wooded/swampy territory to the north of the Siverski Donets river, advancing across a front as wide as ~20km between Yampil and Bilohorivka. They reportedly bypassed or destroyed the few Russian defenses in the area and have advanced to within striking distance of several key towns reinforcing Lyman. 

Twitter sources (so caveats for accuracy) put AFU forces immediately to the south of Zarichne & Tor'ske, on the edge of Dibrova and advancing on the outskirts of Kreminna.

No indications of the size/strength of this force. But, they're reportedly already interdicting the main Russian withdrawal route out of Lyman and Drobysheve - which runs through Zarichne and the straight east to Kreminna. That leaves a single supply line into the Lyman/Drobysheve area - which is also under observation from Ukrainian forces.

If this is true, then we're probably looking at the first large scale encirclement of Russian forces in the war. No idea how large Russian forces are in the area, but there are definitely elements of three Russian division, along with special forces and the BARS Special Combat Reserves (activated reservists) engaged in Lyman/Drobysheve.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> If this is true, then we're probably looking at the first large scale encirclement of Russian forces in the war. No idea how large Russian forces are in the area, but there are definitely elements of three Russian division, along with special forces and the BARS Special Combat Reserves (activated reservists) engaged in Lyman/Drobysheve.


Why are the Russians continuing their offensive towards Bakhmut instead of trying to reinforce Lyman?

*Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast*_* (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia's proxies in Donbas)*

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 26. A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner elements entered the northern part of Otradivka (10 km south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway) from the east and cut off Ukrainian forces' access to the southern part of Otradivka.[45] Wagner elements reportedly continued attacks north on the Bakhmut-Mayorsk highway and took up positions in southern Zaitseve (8 km southeast of Bakhmut).[46] Russian forces may be planning to encircle or envelop Ukrainian positions in eastern Zaitseve from newly acquired positions in the Donbas power substation. Geolocated footage posted on September 26 also shows Russian forces launching ground attacks against Ukrainian positions along the railroad by Bilohorivka.[47] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Spirne, Soledar, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Vyimka, Kurdyumivka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, and Mayorsk on September 26.[48] Ukrainian forces had reportedly repelled Russian ground assaults on Soledar, Vyimka, Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske, and Pavlivka on September 25.[49] Russian forces also conducted routine shelling along the line of contact in the vicinity of Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City on September 25 and 26, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.[50]_






Institute for the Study of War


The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its narratives are unlikely to placate Russians who can perceive the real mistakes all around them. The Kremlin is def




www.understandingwar.org





From the above site, I liked this part....

*Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian forces may have destroyed a Russian drone control and training center that directed drone attacks against Ukraine, possibly killing Iranian trainers. *_Ukrainian journalist Andriiy Tsapienko claimed that Ukrainian forces avenged Russian drone attacks on Odesa by striking the Russian facility in Chulakivka on the Kinburn Spit of Kherson Oblast on September 26 and claimed that the Ukrainian strikes killed four dozen Russians and two dozen Iranian trainers teaching Russian forces how to use Iranian-made drones like the Shahed-136._

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## SaparotRob (Sep 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Why are the Russians continuing their offensive towards Bakhmut instead of trying to reinforce Lyman?


They don't know what else to do. It's probably the only spot they might be able to take. Russia needs a victory. Any kind of victory no matter how pointless.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This war has given me a new appreciation for the MiG-29. Do we know how many Ukraine has received and how many more are potentially available for Ukraine? Did Poland ever hand over its MiGs from March 2022? What about Bulgaria, Czech, etc? Are the USAF’s MiG-29s still in service and not so modernized as to be unfamiliar? Could Peru be persuaded to part with their MiG-29s through some US security guarantee? Perhaps not.
> 
> Last month this article below reported that Slovakia will donate all their MiG-29s, but I’m not sure if this has already occurred. I originally saw reports of this back in April.
> 
> ...


Bulgaria will not part with their MiG-29s although they did send their Su-25s to Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Bulgaria will not part with their MiG-29s although they did send their Su-25s to Ukraine.


Apparently there's some move to get F-16s to Bulgaria. Maybe that will free up their MiG-29s. Besides, with Article 5 no one is going to touch Bulgaria.









U.S. Approves Sale Of Fighter Jets To Bulgaria Amid Speculation About Supply Of MiGs To Ukraine


The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of up to eight F-16 fighter jets to Bulgaria, the Defense Department has said.




www.rferl.org





With just about everyone in eastern Europe wanting/getting F-16s, I have to wonder how quickly they can be produced or refurbished from stocks. My understanding is that with the L-M factory producing F-35s the F-16 has stopped production until it restarts at a new facility in 2023, with first aircraft leaving the line in 2024. L-M must have over a hundred in back order.









Lockheed Martin will resume production of the F-16 fighter in 2023 - Air Data News


Production was temporarily halted in 2018 as the US manufacturer prepared a new plant to receive the aircraft’s assembly line.




www.airdatanews.com













Lockheed Martin Celebrates New F-16 Production Line in Greenville


Lockheed Martin hosted a ceremony April 23 to celebrate its new F-16 production line in Greenville, South Carolina.




www.lockheedmartin.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

When Michael Clarke is on Sky, I pay attention.

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## GTX (Sep 27, 2022)

Ukrainians involved in Russian-backed referendums face treason charges, prison terms


"Collaborators" who assist in Russian-led referendums to annex swathes of Ukraine could face five years in prison, a presidential advisor says, as fighting rages in the east and north-east.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 27, 2022)

Gas leaks in Russian pipelines spark suspicion of sabotage


Unexplained leaks have been detected by Denmark and Sweden in the two Nord Stream pipelines, which have been a focus of tension after Russia cut supplies to Europe.




www.abc.net.au

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## Denniss (Sep 27, 2022)

Three seismic shocks were recorded in Sweden, shortly after the pressure losses were reported. So someone blasted the holes in those pipes

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 27, 2022)

Former Yukos owner. Interesting reflection:

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## GTX (Sep 27, 2022)

Mystery Drone Boat Washes Up Near Home Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Updated)


The unidentifiable unmanned surface vessel, which has features that could point to it being an explosive-laden suicide drone boat, appeared after a nearby blast.




www.thedrive.com













A mysterious ukrainian naval drone discovered off Crimea


A naval drone of unknown type was discovered off the coast of Sevastopol.




www.navyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Sep 27, 2022)

The Russia-Ukraine war will not end soon but post-war planning must start now - ABC News







amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 27, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Former Yukos owner. Interesting reflection:




Not accurate. For example 100,000 draft dodging Americans fled to Canada from 1965 to 1975. And thousands of Serbians fled when their country went to war against most of its neighbours in the 1990s. But still a good sentiment of public mood in Russia.

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> *Not accurate. For example 100,000 draft dodging Americans fled to Canada from 1965 to 1975. * And thousands of Serbians fled when their country went to war against most of its neighbours in the 1990s. But still a good sentiment of public mood in Russia.


NOT ACCURATE! *The US ended the draft in 1973*. The actual number is unknown but depending who you talk to, the number ranges from 40,000 to 100,000, the lower number came from Canadian immigration. There were a number who did leave to Canada but returned either to serve (having a change of heart) or when given amnesty.

Also note that over 30,000 Canadians came to the US to serve in the US armed forces during the Vietnam era! 12,000 saw combat, 134 were KIA.

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## Marcel (Sep 27, 2022)

Nord Stream one and two both sabotaged with explosives, no culprit found, yet. 

Oh boy, I hope it’ll be a warm winter.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Nord Stream one and two both sabotaged with explosives, no culprit found, yet.
> 
> Oh boy, I hope it’ll be a warm winter.



They were already in-active as the supply had been cutoff, correct?

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## J_P_C (Sep 27, 2022)

guy from ru 1st tank regiment, conscripted 2 days ago, they are in the way to the combat zone, combat preparation NONE.... no training, no fire practices, no tactics on any unit level...

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## Marcel (Sep 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They were already in-active as the supply had been cutoff, correct?
> 
> View attachment 688800


Correct. The problem is that this shows the pipelines to be vulnerable. Denmark has heightened the security of other pipelines running from Norway before anyone blows them up.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 27, 2022)

Pulling them from the streets and dropping them into combat is just insane.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 27, 2022)

Which will collapse first: 
the Russian Army
the Russian government
the CSTO
the Russian Federation?

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## J_P_C (Sep 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Which will collapse first:
> the Russian Army
> the Russian government
> the CSTO
> the Russian Federation?


i think this is bloody right question...

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 27, 2022)

Marcel said:


> Nord Stream one and two both sabotaged with explosives, no culprit found, yet.
> 
> Oh boy, I hope it’ll be a warm winter.


Convicted pipeline saboteur Ruby Montoya was heard to say: 
Wasn't me.

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## Dimlee (Sep 27, 2022)

Russian POW from Moscow. 45 years old.
Mobilised on the 21st, captured on the 27th. Somewhere near Kupyansk, probably.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 27, 2022)

These videos showing Russian soldiers captured at the front lines just a few days after they're conscripted are just incredible. Just from the physical fitness perspective, these men are going to struggle...let alone basic soldier things like whether they can remember tactics, shoot, maintain their equipment (ok, the last was a silly observation since Russia isn't giving them any equipment!).

I thought the following article was interesting in the context of the conscription, even though it's a few years old. We've all known military personnel who were absolute people-of-illegitimate-parentage, particularly in training. However, in the west that's mostly a facade designed to build esprit de corps and give the trainees a common enemy to aid the team bonding process. It seems from the descriptions below that the Russian military views anything up to and including rape as simply "something that sorts the men from the boys." That really doesn't bode well for the Russian military because that sort of policy fractures unit cohesion rather than building it. 

_*More Than a Decade After Military Reform, Hazing Still Plagues the Russian Army*_
_ 
By Alexey Zhabin
Updated: Feb. 18, 2020

Having the Russian word for "cock" carved on his forehead with a razor blade as punishment for smoking an illicit cigarette in his barracks toilet was the last straw for Private Artyom Pakhotin. Two weeks later, on April 19, 2018, he shot himself dead with an AK-74 during his platoon's drill training session in the Urals region of Sverdlovsk.

"Mom, don't believe what anyone tells you. They're bullying me here, exhausting me psychologically and extorting money … I don't see how I can go on. I'm already very tired. I'm sorry it all turned out like this," said his last text message to his mother, shown on the local TVK television channel._

_Pakhotin's case isn't unique. Dedovshchina, Russian for hazing, has been part of life for conscripts in the Russian army since the end of the 17th century, when Russian Emperor Peter the Great first introduced compulsory military service.

In 2008, the authorities introduced reforms that included cutting compulsory service from two years to one and changing the military's management structure and education system. Extreme hazing persisted until 2012, when the effects of the reforms became evident. But today, conscripts nearing the end of their year-long stint still bully new arrivals through rape, beatings and humiliation, sometimes with tragic consequences.

In November 2019, a 20-year-old conscript gunned down eight of his fellow soldiers in the town of Gorny in the country's Far East, saying he had acted in retaliation to bullying and a rape threat. "I regret I couldn't restrain myself and that I resorted to this extreme step, but I had no other way out. I couldn't take any more mistreatment," Shamsutdinov wrote in an open letter circulated by his lawyer on social media.

There are no official statistics on the number of hazing cases in the army, but a report from the RBC news website said that in 2018 more than 1,100 military personnel were convicted on charges of abuse of power, and 372 for violence. Lawyer and ex-soldier Alexander Latynin, a supervisory board member of the Union of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia NGO, estimated that the reported number of convictions is just the tip of the iceberg. "We receive about 300 phone calls a day — 10% of them reporting hazing incidents — along with 20 emails a day, one or two of which will be about hazing," Latynin told The Moscow Times, adding that the other complaints are about verbal abuse from officers, inadequate medical treatment and failure of the authorities to issue uniforms.

All able-bodied Russian men are obliged to complete a year of compulsory military service before they turn 27, although thousands manage to avoid it by bribing recruiting officials and doctors. According to official statistics there are 1.9 million Russian army personnel, about 80% of whom are conscripts.

Another military NGO — Mother's Right — estimates based on the requests for help it has received that only 4% of military conscript deaths happen in the line of duty, while 44% are suicides. "Conscripts face extortion, beatings, bullying, inducement to suicide and other crimes," said spokeswoman Anna Kashirtseva. RBC estimated that convictions for abuse of power in the Russian army have halved in the past 10 years, while the number of convictions for violence has fallen fivefold since 2008.

The Defense Ministry didn't respond to requests for comment on the scale of hazing in the military. Arseny Levinson, a lawyer with the Citizen and Army human rights group, said the level of hazing has fallen since the 2008 reforms. "The scales of violence based on the informal hierarchy, which was based on period of service, decreased as the term of service was reduced," said Levinson. He added that technology has also helped, as smartphones and the internet make it more difficult to cover up hazing.

However, last year a law forbidding the usage of phones and any devices with access to the internet for serving military came into force. Timur Ilyasov, a conscript who served in northwestern Russia from 2018-2019, said that anyone's experience with hazing and bullying depends on their personal traits, and that he believes some level of friction is normal in a military team. "If you allow yourself to be bullied, they will bully you and make you do what they want ... It's just a male environment, the interaction of 100 men in an enclosed space." He said there were frequent clashes in his platoon, although superior officers monitored proceedings closely.

"Every evening they examine your body and, if you have bruises, both you and your supervisors will be penalized," he said, adding that this has made bullies adept at administering beatings with the palms of their hands, so as not to leave marks.

Extortion of money

Commentators said that the nature of dedovshchina is also changing, with the extortion of money playing a more central role nowadays.

Latynin said that hazing represents a crisis in Russian society, and pointed out that educated and well-disciplined soldiers never haze others. The closed nature of the army system, absence of normal leisure time for conscripts and poor officer training also contribute to creating the conditions for hazing, Levinson said. "Soldiers have almost no leave, they are trapped and isolated from relatives and public control," he said.

Latynin believes that up to 30% of conscripts are unfit for military service and estimated that it takes them anywhere from six months to a year to adapt to army life. Kashirtseva believes that dedovshchina still exists because, in most cases, nobody is held responsible for it because of the country's lack of a legal culture. "Russians think that beatings, bullying and extortion in the army are a school of life for conscripts, which every boy has to graduate from if he wants to become a real man," she said._

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## GrauGeist (Sep 27, 2022)

The pipeline explosions have to be sabotage - but who would be capable of bombing the pipeline at those depths?

This isn't going to be someone making a bomb in a pressure-cooker in their living room, this is the work of someone who has access to high tech equipment...like a military.

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## glennasher (Sep 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> Mystery Drone Boat Washes Up Near Home Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Updated)
> 
> 
> The unidentifiable unmanned surface vessel, which has features that could point to it being an explosive-laden suicide drone boat, appeared after a nearby blast.
> ...



According to that one article, I wonder how it could be a suicide drone boat, if it's unmanned?? Did anyone proof-read that?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 27, 2022)

NPR aired a report on the way home from work today alleging that there could be a connection between the pipeline leaks and a Swedish test of sea-mines. I haven't found any supporting reports elsewhere.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 27, 2022)

The explosions registered 2.3 on the Richter Scale - that's some serious stuff.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 27, 2022)

Ah, so seismic activity. No sabotage here.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> These videos showing Russian soldiers captured at the front lines just a few days after they're conscripted are just incredible. Just from the physical fitness perspective, these men are going to struggle...let alone basic soldier things like whether they can remember tactics, shoot, maintain their equipment (ok, the last was a silly observation since Russia isn't giving them any equipment!).
> 
> I thought the following article was interesting in the context of the conscription, even though it's a few years old. We've all known military personnel who were absolute people-of-illegitimate-parentage, particularly in training. However, in the west that's mostly a facade designed to build esprit de corps and give the trainees a common enemy to aid the team bonding process. It seems from the descriptions below that the Russian military views anything up to and including rape as simply "something that sorts the men from the boys." That really doesn't bode well for the Russian military because that sort of policy fractures unit cohesion rather than building it.
> 
> _*More Than a Decade After Military Reform, Hazing Still Plagues the Russian Army*_



Back when all this started I did a couple of days researching the Russian conscription & training system and I was gobsmacked at the way their system operates (both on paper and in practice). They're stuck in this unhappy halfway house between a professional army and a conscript army and it creates huge amounts of friction between the two parts.

It's probably too long/granular to go into in this thread. But, here's some reading, if anyone is interested:

Conscription system basics:





Institute for the Study of War


The Russian military is a hybrid format combining a traditional cadre-and-reserve conscript system and a contract-professional system. While the Russian Army has made efforts to professionalize its ranks, particularly in the last 15 years, it remains




www.understandingwar.org





Assessments of professionalism in the Russian military








Russia's Problems with Military Professionalization


Even if Russia manages to take control of the territory of Ukraine, the Russian military's underlying problems with professionalization may handicap these occupiers in their efforts to maintain control over that country for the long-term.




www.rand.org












Kennan Cable No. 67: Professionalism and Politics in the Russian Military







www.wilsoncenter.org





US Congressional Research Service Russia-Ukraine campaign assessment (with section on conscription and manpower):


https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47068



Russian conscription and mobilization in the Ukraine war (written by a Phd in military sciences who specalises in studying this stuff)


https://www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/2022/05/Joris-Van-Bladel_Paper116.pdf?type=pdf




https://www.egmontinstitute.be/content/uploads/2022/07/Van-Bladel_PolicyBrief284.pdf?type=pdf

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## GrauGeist (Sep 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Ah, so seismic activity. No sabotage here.


When they blast up at the (nearby) Gray Rock Quarry, the blasts register anywhere from 1.3 to 1.7 on the Richter Scale - so whoever sabotaged the pipelines used a hellova bomb.

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## Wildcat (Sep 27, 2022)

I can officially confirm* this is the cause of the pipeline explosions.




* source of confirmation - my son.

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## fubar57 (Sep 27, 2022)

"Pro-Moscow officials said vote to join Russia was overwhelming....." They spelled "rigged" wrong



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/moscow-ukraine-referendums-1.6597755

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

Yep…true to form, Kremlin-leaning news agencies are claiming 99.23% support for joining Russia within the occupied parts of the four Ukrainian regions.









Ukraine war: Russia claims win in occupied Ukraine 'sham' referendums


Moscow-installed officials claim the so-called referendums show almost total support for joining Russia.



www.bbc.com





I'm shocked! SHOCKED, I tell you, at the almost perfect results which are a clear Indicator of (a) the correctness of the Russian cause, and (b) the effectiveness of the Russian democratic process which is far more unified than those of the West.

<stop sarcasm mode>

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

Wait, the Ukrainian troops in those regions didn't get to vote?

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

This sucks if you're one of those Russians trying to flee over the border into Georgia:









Ukraine war: Russia to open war enlisting hub on Georgia border


Massive queues have formed as men desperately try to flee Russia to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.



www.bbc.com





Talk about captive audience!!

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

Some interesting insights into life under Russian occupation in this article:









Ukrainians told to 'be ready to fight for Russia'


The BBC is given rare access to the front line near Kherson where Ukrainian troops are pushing back the Russian army.



www.bbc.com





The possibility of Ukrainian men in occupied regions being conscripted into the Russian army is interesting....I reckon they'd be the first to desert. Does Russia really think they'll have an effective fighting force by conscripting the very people they're trying to eradicate? Sheesh....!!!!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The pipeline explosions have to be sabotage - but who would be capable of bombing the pipeline at those depths?
> 
> This isn't going to be someone making a bomb in a pressure-cooker in their living room, this is the work of someone who has access to high tech equipment...like a military.


I read somewhere (can't recall where) the explosions were at 70m deep, not too deep to need very high tech.

I can't see the profit Rusia want to have by blowing the pipes. What could be the thinking behind it if that was russian made?


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## at6 (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> They were already in-active as the supply had been cutoff, correct?
> 
> View attachment 688800


Move along people. Nothing to see here but bubbling Putin farts.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I read somewhere (can't recall where) the explosions were at 70m deep, not too deep to need very high tech.
> 
> I can't see the profit Rusia want to have by blowing the pipes. What could be the thinking behind it if that was russian made?


70m (229 feet) is still beyond a scuba diver's max. depth, which is 130 feet (39m).
Highly trained and equipped divers (technical divers) can attain a maximum depth of 350 feet (106m), but only with support (crew, dive ship, appropiate equipment).

Russia is not beyond creating a false situation to justify their actions.
Europe is no longer a major consumer of their gas, so they are angry and spiteful.

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## blueskies (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I read somewhere (can't recall where) the explosions were at 70m deep, not too deep to need very high tech.
> 
> I can't see the profit Rusia want to have by blowing the pipes. What could be the thinking behind it if that was russian made?


The most likely explanation is that it was the USA.

Russia had leverage over Germany by way of the pipeline, being able to resume gas deliveries whenever the Germans were willing to negotiate - the Russians said as much just a few days ago. But now with the pipeline destroyed the Germans have no choice but to rely on US gas imports.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> This sucks if you're one of those Russians trying to flee over the border into Georgia:


As I said earlier, the last thing Georgia needs is more Russians. Russian-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia will jump at the opportunity to use demography as a weapon once more.

If a ship is sinking next to yours, you don’t let the rats trying to flee reach your boat. You let them drown. The Russian people built their sh#those country, let them stew in it now.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> 70m (229 feet) is still beyond a scuba diver's max. depth, which is 130 feet (39m).
> Highly trained and equipped divers (technical divers) can attain a maximum depth of 350 feet (106m), but only with support (crew, dive ship, appropiate equipment).
> 
> Russia is not beyond creating a false situation to justify their actions.
> Europe is no longer a major consumer of their gas, so they are angry and spiteful.


Russia’s submarine fleet has been preparing to disrupt the communication cables between North America and Europe for years. I assume the same techniques can hit a gas line.









Undersea cables the Achilles’ heel in lead-up to new cold war


It’s a little-known twist in the cyber-warfare between nations that carries potentially devastating consequences. At a time when more than 95% of everything that moves on the global Internet passes…




asiatimes.com













Russia Could Threaten Internet Cables in Underwater Attacks—Navy Chief


Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, 56, confirmed any such move could be viewed an act of war.




www.newsweek.com













5 Ways The Russian Navy Could Target Undersea Internet Cables - Naval News


Few corners of the submarine world are seen as sneakier than covert operations against undersea communications cables. It is estimated that 97% of global communications are transmitted by undersea cables. This includes trillions of dollars of financial transactions. These cables have been...




www.navalnews.com

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> The most likely explanation is that it was the USA.
> 
> Russia had leverage over Germany by way of the pipeline, being able to resume gas deliveries whenever the Germans were willing to negotiate - the Russians said as much just a few days ago. But now with the pipeline destroyed the Germans have no choice but to rely on US gas imports.


There is no profit in that, since Warren Buffett has no direct rail connection with Europe.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 28, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> The most likely explanation is that it was the USA.
> 
> Russia had leverage over Germany by way of the pipeline, being able to resume gas deliveries whenever the Germans were willing to negotiate - the Russians said as much just a few days ago. But now with the pipeline destroyed the Germans have no choice but to rely on US gas imports.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.



Edit by moderator: the subtitles are not real, this is a joke, not real, see "All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.




WOW....JUST WOW!!!!

Everyone's a hero when it's the mighty Russian Army stomping on those puny Ukrainian nazis. But with Ukraine on on the offensive, now it's "There must be a mistake!" or "I'm too old!" or "There must be someone else!"

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 28, 2022)

I can do so much more for the war effort by staying here being a cheerleader!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> The most likely explanation is that it was the USA.
> 
> Russia had leverage over Germany by way of the pipeline, being able to resume gas deliveries whenever the Germans were willing to negotiate - the Russians said as much just a few days ago. But now with the pipeline destroyed the Germans have no choice but to rely on US gas imports.


Not sure if you're joking or just part of the "the U.S. is evil" bandwagon, but the U.S. has zero to gain from destroying the pipelines (which weren't in use, by the way).

If one were to assume that the pipelines were bombed in order to create a captive market, you have to look at natural gas production by nation, then subtract the consumption by that producing nation, then see how much is available for export.

The U.S. leads the world in natural gas production, but also in consumption, producing 914 billion cubic meters a year while consuming 832 billion - which leaves 82 billion for export.

Hardly enough to provide Europe any substantial amount to justify sabotage.

By the way, Germany is Europe's leading consumer of natural gas, at 86.5 billion cubic meters a year.

More than the U.S. has available...

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 28, 2022)

It says a lot when the average 60 year old Ukrainian woman has bigger balls than he does

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> View attachment 688872


Hey, Tucker said it, so it must be true!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> WOW....JUST WOW!!!!
> 
> Everyone's a hero when it's the mighty Russian Army stomping on those puny Ukrainian nazis. But with Ukraine on on the offensive, now it's "There must be a mistake!" or "I'm too old!" or "There must be someone else!"


How about that bit about minorities, FFS.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Hey, Tucker said it, so it must be true!



Unfortunately, his cult following believes that.

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## pbehn (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The pipeline explosions have to be sabotage - but who would be capable of bombing the pipeline at those depths?
> 
> This isn't going to be someone making a bomb in a pressure-cooker in their living room, this is the work of someone who has access to high tech equipment...like a military.


The military arent the experts in this, most work in the north sea below water is now don by ROVs (remote operated vehicles) A small submarine on an umbilical. There are lots of them, when I was in Scotland, a guy in my guest house had just booked himself on a training course to us them. Any state or rich person can get hold of a trawler and an ROV, if you can get hold of explosives, you are in business, it doesnt take a huge blast to put a hole in a pipeline. RJE Oceanbotics™ SRV-8 ROV | Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicle

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## Dimlee (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.



It's a joke. A kind of Hitler (Der Untergang) parody.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> How about that bit about minorities, FFS.



Yeah, hence my double "WOW!!!" Not to mention enlisting paedophiles and rapists. It's clear these commentators don't care about the performance of the Russian military...the mobilization is just an excuse to get rid of untermensch (to bring up another parallel with Nazi Germany).

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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I read somewhere (can't recall where) the explosions were at 70m deep, not too deep to need very high tech.
> 
> I can't see the profit Rusia want to have by blowing the pipes. What could be the thinking behind it if that was russian made?


Russia could take out Norwegian pipelines to Europe too?


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## fubar57 (Sep 28, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Sep 28, 2022)

The cold-blooded shooting of civilians.
_"On February 25, the invasion troops had been shooting at civilian cars in Hostomel for six hours."_


 https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-law-enforcement-officers-established-the-fact-of-the-war-crimes-being-committed-by-the-russian-military-in-hostomel/

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 688876​



The chap on the left, with the light brown magazine in his AK looks as happy as a clam to be there. 

Wonder if the Russian military conducts employee satisfaction surveys....I can guess at the grades that guy would provide!

Time for some Marvin the Paranoid Android:

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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

Brain the size of a planet and here I am parking cars.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> The most likely explanation is that it was the USA.
> 
> Russia had leverage over Germany by way of the pipeline, being able to resume gas deliveries whenever the Germans were willing to negotiate - the Russians said as much just a few days ago. But now with the pipeline destroyed the Germans have no choice but to rely on US gas imports.


One goes to work and you guys put quite a show here!

Any one knows how many russian trolls lurks in the forum?



Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.



Wooooooowwwwww.

So it's true that the mobilization aims for the million men, that the russians themselves think that they have a moraly corrupt society that have a million of paedophiles and other nasty criminals under any rock, that minorities are good only for cannon fodder and that if you have connections you can skip mobilization.

All in prime time.

Good for the old lad to unmask the presentar as the P.o.S. he is.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

I noticed the reference to the less than societally accepted folks too. In Russia? Surely you jest. 
I am truly saddened by that self righteous rant as it did not include street mimes specifically.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I am truly saddened by that self righteous rant as it did not include street mimes specifically.


Well, you just can't come right out and _say _it.

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## hawkeye2an (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.



Street Musicians, Art Students and Ethnic Minorities. What happened to "women and children first"?

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## WARSPITER (Sep 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I noticed the reference to the less than societally accepted folks too. In Russia? Surely you jest.
> I am truly saddened by that self righteous rant as it did not include street mimes specifically.


Fair go there son. It's really hard to mime a whole street you know.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> It's a joke. A kind of Hitler (Der Untergang) parody.


Ah, so the subtitles are just bogus? That's a shame, and whomever made this did the cause no favours.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

Not if you use BuK launchers for saturation miming.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Any one knows how many russian trolls lurks in the forum?


Anyone hear from Jagdflieger?

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Anyone hear from Jagdflieger?


He's probably been kept busy advising the Russians with his vastly superior military knowledge...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Anyone hear from Jagdflieger?



He lurks silently from time to time. Not in a while though. He last visited on August 9th.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 28, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Just don't pop your turret.







Ukraine needs advanced tanks, pronto.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Just don't pop your turret.
> 
> View attachment 688879
> 
> ...


That's a Russian tank hit by a Ukrainian missile near Mariupol back in May.

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## GTX (Sep 28, 2022)

Russia prepares to annex occupied Ukraine regions despite international outcry


Moscow looks set to take control of occupied areas in eastern and southern Ukraine after local referendums on joining Russia condemned by Kyiv and the West as a sham.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not sure if you're joking or just part of the "the U.S. is evil" bandwagon, but the U.S. has zero to gain from destroying the pipelines (which weren't in use, by the way).
> 
> If one were to assume that the pipelines were bombed in order to create a captive market, you have to look at natural gas production by nation, then subtract the consumption by that producing nation, then see how much is available for export.
> 
> ...


Agreed. If anything, having the pipeline cut goes against US interests as it will result in more pressure on the Europeans come winter with calls (especially from the likes of the far right - see Italy now) to stop supporting Ukraine so as to come to some sort of deal with Russia.

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## GTX (Sep 28, 2022)

More outstanding recruits:






Heartbreaking photos of Russian mobilisation

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's a Russian tank hit by a Ukrainian missile near Mariupol back in May.


I know. The same tank type operated by Ukrainians. ATGMs don't care whose flag is on the tank.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I know. The same tank type operated by Ukrainians. ATGMs don't care whose flag is on the tank.


I seriously doubt any tank in existence will survive a direct top-down missile strike.


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 28, 2022)

You have to give the Russians credits, its far more efficient giving their troops the last rites before they are employed to the front.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

How old is that guy on the front rank, immediately to the left of the priest's elbow? He looks about 70....and not exactly in fighting trim!

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I seriously doubt any tank in existence will survive a direct top-down missile strike.


IDK. Isn't the Merkava's Trophy system now being deployed on Abrams designed against this specific threat?









TROPHY Active Protection System for Armored Vehicles | Leonardo DRS


By proactively detecting, locating, and (if necessary) neutralizing anti-armor threats, TROPHY™ dramatically increases platform survivability, and creates a new paradigm of networked threat awareness for maneuver forces.



www.leonardodrs.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> You have to give the Russians credits, its far more efficient giving their troops the last rites before they are employed to the front.


And let's remember the advice given the Russian troops by a Ukrainian woman back in February:
Put sunflower seeds in their pockets so flowers will grow where they died.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> He's probably been kept busy advising the Russians with his vastly superior military knowledge...


Perhaps that explains a lot

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Agreed. If anything, having the pipeline cut goes against US interests as it will result in more pressure on the Europeans come winter with calls (especially from the likes of the far right - see Italy now) to stop supporting Ukraine so as to come to some sort of deal with Russia.



Sounds like something in Vladolf Putlers best interest.

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## GTX (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sounds like something in Vladolf Putlers best interest.


Indeed


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## Dimlee (Sep 28, 2022)

18 HIMARS, hundreds of vehicles and other goodies... Tools to finish the job.








US announces $1.1 billion more in military aid for Ukraine


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will provide an additional $1.1 billion in aid to Ukraine, with funding for about 18 more advanced rocket systems and other weapons to counter drones that Russia has been using against Ukrainian troops, the Biden administration announced Wednesday.




apnews.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Indeed

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness. The Kremlin's propaganda ministry had better get some FSB re-education goons off to the state TV station pronto. Clearly the commentors have lost the plot.



Woah! that is amazing. 

"I don't want to be cannon fodder, send the street musicians and the art students", lol
or ...
"There are millions of ethnic minorities that can go in my place"

Priceless, anyone saying anything like that in any western TV will be fired immediately.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Woah! that is amazing.
> 
> "I don't want to be cannon fodder, send the street musicians and the art students", lol
> or ...
> ...


Dammit just read its a fake ...

Anyway it's hilarious.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Dammit just read its a fake ...
> 
> Anyway it's hilarious.


It says something that we thought it was apt. But yeah, I apologize for spreading misinformation - it's something we should all avoid.

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## blueskies (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Not sure if you're joking or just part of the "the U.S. is evil" bandwagon, but the U.S. has zero to gain from destroying the pipelines (which weren't in use, by the way).
> 
> If one were to assume that the pipelines were bombed in order to create a captive market, you have to look at natural gas production by nation, then subtract the consumption by that producing nation, then see how much is available for export.
> 
> ...


Its about ensuring that Germany can't turn around and cut a deal with Russia. So far Germany has been the weakest link against Russia, barely contributing money to Ukraine and dragging their feet on giving weapons.

A few days ago Russia said this; 
""The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said."









Putin tells Europe: if you want gas, open Nord Stream 2


STORY: Speaking to reporters after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan, Putin blamed what he called "the green agenda" for the energy crisis and insisted that Russia would fulfill its energy obligations."The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you...




news.yahoo.com





And there has been an increasing number of protest in Germany over gas prices/imports. But now Germany doesn't have a choice, any possibility of receiving gas through Nordstream 1 or 2 is gone.

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## Glider (Sep 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I seriously doubt any tank in existence will survive a direct top-down missile strike.


True, but the Western tanks are far less likely to blow the turrets killing all the crew. I believe there have been cases of an M1 being hit in the magazine, but the crew survived.

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## GTX (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> So far Germany has been the weakest link against Russia, barely contributing money


Hmmm...

€1.83 billion in bilateral aid since 2014
approx. €4 billion via the EU in the form of grants and loans since 2014.
€240 million via the EU in loans in 2022.
Loan of over €150 million via KfW in April 2022.
€425 million via the 'Stand Up For Ukraine' pledging campaign and an additional 70 million for medical aid via the EU
Over €1 billion additional military aid to Ukraine for weapons purchases in April 2022
Additional €1 billion pledged in the form of grants in May 2022

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Sep 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> How old is that guy on the front rank, immediately to the left of the priest's elbow? He looks about 70....and not exactly in fighting trim!







Yep, this guy don't look like a warrior. Seems a rather odd recruit.

Volunteer? Criminal? Some one that goes in the place of someone else?

Is hard to belive that there aren't more able men to be called to arms.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It says something that we thought it was apt. But yeah, I apologize for spreading misinformation - it's something we should all avoid.


I dunno', I really liked the "space cadet uniform" line.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> View attachment 688888
> Yep, this guy don't look like a warrior. Seems a rather odd recruit.
> 
> Volunteer? Criminal? Some one that goes in the place of someone else?
> ...



Agree entirely. I doubt that this motley crew will have the Ukrainians quaking in their boots.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> Its about ensuring that Germany can't turn around and cut a deal with Russia. So far Germany has been the weakest link against Russia, barely contributing money to Ukraine and dragging their feet on giving weapons.



Ummmm, you might want to get your facts straight…






(I’m sure this is behind as its from Sept 8th)










Infographic: Where Military Aid to Ukraine Comes From


This chart shows the countries pledging most arms/weapons transfers to Ukraine, Jan 24 to Oct 3, 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars).




www.statista.com

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## SaparotRob (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ummmm, you might want to get your facts straight…
> 
> View attachment 688889
> 
> ...


Don't forget Russia's own lend-lease contributions to the Ukrainian war effort.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 28, 2022)

Don't remember seeing this:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Don't forget Russia's own lend-lease contributions to the Ukrainian war effort.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

From what I'm reading Ukraine is having the most success in the east offensive using fast wheeled vehicles rather than tanks, like the IVECO LAV III from Norway. With that in mind I wish Canada would send 30mm Bushmaster-armed GDC LAV3s to Ukraine.


manta22 said:


> "Hello... France......hello, France................hello, France..................I don't think anyone is there."


Memories of 1939.... Poland calls for help, France looks away. At least this time Britain is stepping up.

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## manta22 (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ummmm, you might want to get your facts straight…
> 
> View attachment 688889
> 
> ...


"Hello... France......hello, France................hello, France..................I don't think anyone is there."

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 28, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Hello... France......hello, France................hello, France..................I don't think anyone is there."


France will increase their aid to Ukraine when the Russians reach the Rhine.

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## manta22 (Sep 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> France will increase their aid to Ukraine when the Russians reach the Rhine.


.....Or Strasburg.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

manta22 said:


> .....Or Strasburg.



Which is on the Rhine. The river forms the eastern border of the city.

Strasbourg used to be my teenage stomping grounds when I lived back in Stuttgart. We would go their to party on weekends sometimes. I have a few NSFF (Not Safe For Forum) stories I could tell…

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

blueskies said:


> Its about ensuring that Germany can't turn around and cut a deal with Russia. So far Germany has been the weakest link against Russia, barely contributing money to Ukraine and dragging their feet on giving weapons.
> 
> A few days ago Russia said this;
> ""The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said."
> ...


All Germany has waffled on, is allowing their heavy armor to be used in Ukraine.

This could be political, this could be a reluctance to find the Leopard may have performance flaws, it could be anything, but to claim Germany hasn't provided aid is patiently false.

To assume/claim the U.S. is behind the Nord sabotage is absurd.
The majority of Europe is a client of Russian natural gas, yet some of the most dependant narions have provided considerable aid to Ukraine.

The U.S. is not geared toward natural gas exports like it is with oil, although it has pledged to assist Europe with as much LNG as it can.

The U.S. has literally nothing to lose or gain from the pipeline sabotage.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 28, 2022)

I was wondering if this was a Russian job for the main purpose of propaganda at home for Putin.

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## manta22 (Sep 28, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Which is on the Rhine. The river forms the eastern border of the city.
> 
> Strasbourg used to be my teenage stomping grounds when I lived back in Stuttgart. We would go their to party on weekends sometimes. I have a few NSFF (Not Safe For Forum) stories I could tell…


Stuttgart, eh? We used to play you in football & basketball- tough team. My teen stomping grounds was Frankfurt. FAHS 1957.


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## AAIR (Sep 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Agreed. If anything, having the pipeline cut goes against US interests as it will result in more pressure on the Europeans come winter with calls (especially from the likes of the far right - see Italy now) to stop supporting Ukraine so as to come to some sort of deal with Russia.


First off I want to make clear I do NOT think the US was involved, I just want to share perspective of others, particularly those who distrust the US. Read some of the comments in this thread. The president's previous comments do seem a bit damning and make for good anti-US propaganda:


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## buffnut453 (Sep 28, 2022)

Yeah...right. The US President tells the world almost 8 months ago that the US will shut down the Nord Stream pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. Russia does precisely that and yet it's Russia that actually closes the pipeline....and only THEN does the US go in to blow it up, which they do covertly.

A few questions:

1. If the intent was to covertly blow up the pipeline, why announce it in February?

2. Since you announced it in February, why not claim responsibility now?

3. What does it benefit the US to blow up the pipeline now? 

4. How does further weakening Germany's energy situation help achieve the goal of encouraging Berlin to be more supportive of Ukraine? 

For #3, US attribution would further harm relations with Germany...and they've been rocky enough over the past 5 years. There isn't a financial justification because the US doesn't produce enough excess natural gas to supply Germany, let alone the other European nations who depended on Nord Stream, nor can the US readily get excess gas to Europe. Germany helped build Nord Stream and so, presumably, it could rebuild "son of Nord Stream" once the conflict is over, so there's no long-term gain for the US. 

There are no benefits to the US but there are a whole HEAP of negative impacts if the story is leaked....and there would still be a lot of people in on the secret. You can't conduct a (presumably) military operation like that without bringing in a sizeable number of people. You have the team that executed the mission, the people that planned and commanded it, including decision-makers at senior levels with US European Command and their staff. Then there's the Sec Def and his staff, the President and his staff...that's a lot of people who are in on the conspiracy. 

In sum, the entire idea that the US blew up Nord Stream is ridiculous.

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## swampyankee (Sep 28, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> View attachment 688888
> 
> 
> Is hard to belive that there aren't more able men to be called to arms.


They were able-bodied enough to leave.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 28, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Stuttgart, eh? We used to play you in football & basketball- tough team. My teen stomping grounds was Frankfurt. FAHS 1957.



Yeah, but I was about 30-40 years behind you…lol

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## manta22 (Sep 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah...right. The US President tells the world almost 8 months ago that the US will shut down the Nord Stream pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. Russia does precisely that and yet it's Russia that actually closes the pipeline....and only THEN does the US go in to blow it up, which they do covertly.
> 
> A few questions:
> 
> ...


Don't believe anything this or anything else he has said. This is as "political" as I can get on this site but it's simply an accurate observation of Joe.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 28, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/general-dynamics-london-ontario-ukraine-war-support-canada-1.6513533



Too bad it's not the armed variant.







ATGM or 30mm variants would have been better. Though I'm sure the AFU will customize the armament they need atop these unarmed versions.






Ideal for the Ukrainian winter.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 28, 2022)

OSINT guys and girls having a field day trying to track Russian armour lost & captured in the area north and northeast of Lyman.

Quick count of tanks captured in the past 48 hours:

6 or 7 x T-80BV
2 x T-80U
4 x T-72B/B3

Speculation is that a lot of partially functional/lightly damaged armour was being stored in this area because Russian logistics weren't able to keep up with necessary repairs.

Some OSINT sources are stating more than 100 Russian tanks have been captured since the start of September. 
For context, in the previous 200ish days, Ukraine reportedly captured a little under 300 tanks

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## WARSPITER (Sep 28, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> OSINT guys and girls having a field day trying to track Russian armour lost & captured in the area north and northeast of Lyman.
> 
> Quick count of tanks captured in the past 48 hours:
> 
> ...


I hope the Russian logistics / repair system is fixed soon. The Ukrainians need reliable tanks to capture after all.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 28, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I hope the Russian logistics / repair system is fixed soon. The Ukrainians need reliable tanks to capture after all.



Lord forbid the contractor should fall short!

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## GrauGeist (Sep 28, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I hope the Russian logistics / repair system is fixed soon. The Ukrainians need reliable tanks to capture after all.


Or at least have a head start over the Tractor Brigade!

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

Interesting video of Ukrainian artillery in action near the front line. Shoot and scoot is the approach du jour:

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

From the weekend but this gives an idea of the exodus from Russia across the Georgian border:

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

According to the Associated Press:
▪️ More than 53 thousand Russians entered Georgia;
▪️ To Kazakhstan 98 thousand;
▪️ More than 43 thousand to Finland.

And the exodus continues









Over 194,000 Russians flee call-up to neighboring countries


TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — It took Vsevolod four days to drive from Moscow to Russia's southern border with Georgia. He had to abandon his car at one point and continue on foot. On Tuesday, he finally finished his 1,800-kilometer (1,100-mile) journey and crossed the frontier to escape being called...




apnews.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 29, 2022)

I understand that the majority of Russians leaving the motherland are legitimate citizens who want no part of Putler's Volkssturm decree, but how many amongst them are FSB who'll eventually start "separatist" movements?

Back in 2014, just before Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbass due to the "unrest", Estonia arrested several FSB members that were trying to create a similar situation there.

I would think close scrutiny and caution should prevail with all who cross those borders.

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 688876​


Like Hitler, Putin is sending old men to war.

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> More outstanding recruits:
> 
> View attachment 688882
> 
> ...


Being blessed with Holy P*ss Water straight from the Patriarch's pee pee.

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> View attachment 688888
> Yep, this guy don't look like a warrior. Seems a rather odd recruit.
> 
> Volunteer? Criminal? Some one that goes in the place of someone else?
> ...


When did Curly leave the Three Stooges?

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Which is on the Rhine. The river forms the eastern border of the city.
> 
> Strasbourg used to be my teenage stomping grounds when I lived back in Stuttgart. We would go their to party on weekends sometimes. I have a few NSFF (Not Safe For Forum) stories I could tell…


Please oh please tell us !!!!!


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## Torch (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Which is on the Rhine. The river forms the eastern border of the city.
> 
> Strasbourg used to be my teenage stomping grounds when I lived back in Stuttgart. We would go their to party on weekends sometimes. I have a few NSFF (Not Safe For Forum) stories I could tell…


Great sauerkraut there. Best I’ve ever eaten.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

Who Sabotaged the Nord Stream Pipelines?


On Monday, the two Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia and Germany sustained “unprecedented” damage in what look like deliberate acts




dailysceptic.org




According to this article main suspects are: US, Russia, Poland and Ukraine

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine


But Finland and the Baltic states are still leery of Moscow’s long-term designs.




foreignpolicy.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

_"The United Nations Security Council will convene on Friday *at the request of Russia *to discuss damage to two Russian gas pipelines"_
Will Russia blame US? After all, they are experts on making-up false evidences and present them with a straight face even when a child knows its fake.









UN Security Council to meet Friday on damage to Nord Stream gas pipelines


The United Nations Security Council will convene on Friday at the request of Russia to discuss damage to two Russian gas pipelines to Europe that has caused gas to spew into the Baltic Sea.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting video of Ukrainian artillery in action near the front line. Shoot and scoot is the approach du jour:



I’m amazed that they can hit the target. How is this accomplished? The gun crew can’t see the target, so is there a drone or forward spotting team in communication with the gun crew? Presumably they fire three shells and then run, one over/under, another under/over and then a direct/close hit? Once they run, do they then aim for the same target as before, with the same spotters? I found this online. Finding the killing the FO must be an imperative?






Then there’s this modern tech. I wonder what Ukraine is using.









Artillery Target Acquisition - blue bird


BlueBird UASs provide advanced support for artillery units – locating targets and transferring their coordinates to the firing unit.




bluebird-uav.com


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## glennasher (Sep 29, 2022)

^^^^^^^^^ Some of the newer artillery uses GPS guided ammunition. If you have the coordinates, type it in, and let fly. In addition, a 155 artillery piece will "take out" a huge area with airburst ammo. It doesn't leave much to the imagination what it will do to "troops in the open" or lightly skinned vehicles. Downrange is no place to be..............

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

Good to see my fellow Canadians helping.



Ukraine will be teaching us by the end of this war. No one else will have such experience of defeating the Russians. An ideal NATO partner.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

Torch said:


> Great sauerkraut there. Best I’ve ever eaten.


As a kid, I made myself sauerkraut sandwiches. Honest.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

Yet another shock...Moscow is moving to annex the 4 states they partially occupy within Ukraine.









Russia to formally annex four more areas of Ukraine


Russia is to press ahead with annexation days after conducting unrecognised referendums.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m amazed that they can hit the target. How is this accomplished? The gun crew can’t see the target, so is there a drone or forward spotting team in communication with the gun crew?



Yes, that's been a thing for a long time now, since the use of balloons in the American Civil War if not before then. Spotting the fall of shot is precisely how you attain hits with guns that range fifteen miles or more, or are used in indirect fire.


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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yes, that's been a thing for a long time now, since the use of balloons in the American Civil War if not before then. Spotting the fall of shot is precisely how you attain hits with guns that range fifteen miles or more, or are used in indirect fire.


But with the land so flat and open, the observers must be right up close. Surely their radio or cell communications would be at risk? Well, if the enemy weren't buffoons that is.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

Beware the Eye In The Sky.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But with the land so flat and open, the observers must be right up close. Surely their radio or cell communications would be at risk? Well, if the enemy weren't buffoons that is.



Aircraft (rotary-wing, fixed-wing, and UAV) can be used to paint targets as well. So can satellites.

But a ground observer does not have to be in the open either. Today’s equipment is hand held and just needs a line of sight.

Modern artillery pieces have GPS guided projectiles (if the operator has them). A ground soldier, vehicle, aircraft, or satellite can “paint” the target with good accuracy.

Equipment and communications are encrypted (unless you are the Russians…  )

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But with the land so flat and open, the observers must be right up close. Surely their radio or cell communications would be at risk? Well, if the enemy weren't buffoons that is.



I'd think that open, flat terrain would see more drones and less ground observers in use. But even ground observers can use tools like binocular periscopes, laser designators, and so forth. Radar ranging can be done as well. Accurate land-based artillery fire is fairly easy compared to seaborne guns where both shooter and target are moving as well as rolling with the waves.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> But with the land so flat and open, the observers must be right up close. Surely their radio or cell communications would be at risk? Well, if the enemy weren't buffoons that is.



Rather depends what radios they're using. Low-probability of intercept/low-probability of detection (LPI/LPD) systems do what they say - they're very hard to intercept or detect and hence can be used with little risk of being sensed by an adversary. 

As others have noted, UAVs can also play a key role in targeting artillery, with geolocations pulled from aerial imagery in near-real time.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Russia Blows Up Gas Pipelines, Declaring an All-Out Energy War It May Already Have Lost


Russia's likely sabotage of natural gas pipelines spells an escalation of Putin's energy war—and increases chance of him losing it




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Sep 29, 2022)

And the drone, with quality optics, can hover at an altitude well beyond the enemy's ability to see it and feed real-time coordinates to batteries with detailed GPS data.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

Why Putin will soon have to choose between losing in Ukraine or using nuclear weapons


Ukraine has both the political and popular resolve to liberate its territory. Thanks to the United States, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states, Kyiv also has the economic and military means to believe it can achieve its ambition. In contrast, it is increasingly clear that Russia lacks the…




www.washingtonexaminer.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>




Yep...only one exit route now for the Russians: to the east via Torske (oh, and the Ukrainians can easily range the north-south MSR from Makiivka):

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

To bad the Ukrainian’s cannot just break through and keep going all the way to Moscow.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yet another shock...Moscow is moving to annex the 4 states they partially occupy within Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Then perhaps it's time for the West to stop acting exclusively in the background as quartermaster to Ukraine and to demonstrate its military power and resolve. An US-led NATO armoured corps. rolling into Ukraine, remaining exclusively in the northern Onlasts that border Belarus, excluding the Chernihiv Oblast that borders Russia. This Western force is placed to ostensibly guarantee against Belarusian aggression. Both Ukraine and NATO invites both India and China to participate in some peaceful role.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then perhaps it's time for the West to stop acting exclusively in the background as quartermaster to Ukraine and to demonstrate its military power and resolve. An US-led NATO armoured corps. rolling into Ukraine, remaining exclusively in the northern Onlasts that border Belarus, excluding the Chernihiv Oblast that borders Russia. This Western force is placed to ostensibly guarantee against Belarusian aggression. Both Ukraine and NATO invites both India and China to participate in some peaceful role.



Sheesh...how many times do we have to go over this? NATO cannot get involved because none of the member nations has been attacked. Actively defending Ukrainian territory with NATO forces is still participating in the conflict, even if the NATO troops don't engage Russian forces. And if NATO did get involved, then Putin almost certainly would start pushing big red buttons.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

A
 Admiral Beez
, you can disagree all you like. However, it doesn't change the facts of how and when NATO can be mobilized and take action. If NATO becomes an active belligerent, and providing defensive forces for northwestern Ukraine absolutely fits that criteria, then it will prove to the world that Putin was right.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A
> Admiral Beez
> , you can disagree all you like. However, it doesn't change the facts of how and when NATO can be mobilized and take action. If NATO becomes an active belligerent, and providing defensive forces for northwestern Ukraine absolutely fits that criteria, then it will prove to the world that Putin was right.



And open the door for nuclear winter…

Nobody wins.


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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

I'd seen some bizarre stories about the Ukraine conflict but this one's beyond bizarre. The US Army's first transgender officer (who transitioned from male to female) and her wife offered to provide information about US Army medical records from Fort Bragg to the Russian Embassy in hopes that, somehow, it might provide info on how the US Army is helping train Ukrainians. 

It all sounds like a B-movie plot....so I'll let all you smart people try and figure out what on earth is going on with this story:









Ukraine-Russia war: US army doctor and wife charged with Russia spying


The army major doctor and her wife, a civilian doctor, are charged over plans to leak health information.



www.bbc.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then perhaps it's time for the West to stop acting exclusively in the background as quartermaster to Ukraine and to demonstrate its military power and resolve. An US-led NATO armoured corps. rolling into Ukraine, remaining exclusively in the northern Onlasts that border Belarus, excluding the Chernihiv Oblast that borders Russia. This Western force is placed to ostensibly guarantee against Belarusian aggression. Both Ukraine and NATO invites both India and China to participate in some peaceful role.



The only way this works is if Putler launches a strike on a NATO country such as Poland and article 5 is enacted.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd seen some bizarre stories about the Ukraine conflict but this one's beyond bizarre. The US Army's first transgender officer (who transitioned from male to female) and her wife offered to provide information about US Army medical records from Fort Bragg to the Russian Embassy in hopes that, somehow, it might provide info on how the US Army is helping train Ukrainians.
> 
> It all sounds like a B-movie plot....so I'll let all you smart people try and figure out what on earth is going on with this story:
> 
> ...


Diversity is our strength.

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

'Should be prosecuted for war crimes': Suspected Nord Stream pipe sabotage releases greenhouse gasses


Whoever is behind suspected sabotage of Baltic Sea pipes should be prosecuted for war crimes, a Stanford University climate scientist says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

Russia confirms it will annex four parts of Ukraine after sham votes

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

'Hybrid war': Leaders scramble as fourth leak detected in Nord Stream pipelines in Baltic Sea

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

More stellar recruits in their prime:







Vladimir Putin's army drafting retirees, telling conscripts to use tampons for bullet wounds

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 29, 2022)

You see worn out, old geezers. But they bring with them a lifetime's worth of experience and wisdom.

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You see worn out, old geezers. But they bring with them a lifetime's worth of experience and wisdom.


Not enough wisdom to avoid a no-win situation.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You see worn out, old geezers. But they bring with them a lifetime's worth of experience and wisdom.


Meanwhile their sons have fled to the border.


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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> As a kid, I made myself sauerkraut sandwiches. Honest.


...and Reubens! Yum! And krautdogs! Double yum!

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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> More stellar recruits in their prime:
> 
> View attachment 689075
> 
> ...


Trying to figure out their ranks. 2 stars - Lieutenant?


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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

'Honestly, they're all going to die' What Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine think about Putin's mobilization effort — Meduza


Interviews by Lilia Yapparova. Abridged translation by Sam Breazeale.




meduza.io

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Trying to figure out their ranks. 2 stars - Lieutenant?











Army ranks and insignia of the Russian Federation - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## GrauGeist (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'Should be prosecuted for war crimes': Suspected Nord Stream pipe sabotage releases greenhouse gasses
> 
> 
> Whoever is behind suspected sabotage of Baltic Sea pipes should be prosecuted for war crimes, a Stanford University climate scientist says.
> ...


Oh yeah, now they're stating that the release of gas is now having a direct effect on climate change.

Lots of other things going on across the globe like volcanoes, the gateway to hell (which is still burning after 50 years), the burning cities in Ukraine, forest fires and much more, but I guess one simply cannot allow a good opportunity to to waste...

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## buffnut453 (Sep 29, 2022)

That has to be the OLDEST lieutenant I've EVER seen...including many I've known who were commissioned from the ranks (including former warrant officers).


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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

Russia is poised to annex parts of Ukraine. But is it legitimate?


Moscow is poised to annex parts of Ukraine within days, in what Kyiv and the West have denounced as illegal sham referendums. Here's what could happen next.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> To bad the Ukrainian’s cannot just break through and keep going all the way to Moscow.


Who knows

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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'Honestly, they're all going to die' What Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine think about Putin's mobilization effort — Meduza
> 
> 
> Interviews by Lilia Yapparova. Abridged translation by Sam Breazeale.
> ...


Wow.

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## Greg Boeser (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> Not enough wisdom to avoid a no-win situation.


But you don't have to worry about them running away in a fight. 
Besides, how often have we heard the complaint that old men send the young off to war to die? Well, looks like Russia is going to show us!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Why Putin will soon have to choose between losing in Ukraine or using nuclear weapons
> 
> 
> Ukraine has both the political and popular resolve to liberate its territory. Thanks to the United States, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states, Kyiv also has the economic and military means to believe it can achieve its ambition. In contrast, it is increasingly clear that Russia lacks the…
> ...



Putin's regime will not survive this war no matter how he tries to win it. If we assume the premise that he wants to survive in order to benefit, he has already lost, because 1) he's started a war he cannot finish, 2) he's alienated many Russians who would otherwise support him, and 3) going nuclear means not only the end of his regime but also the destruction of the only tool in his toolbox, the Russian military.

He has already lost, in terms of his personal status and even survival. No successor of his will want to continue his policies, such as they are; any replacement for him will otherwise be victim to the same forces which undid him.

Will he use WMDs? Hard to say. He's painted his country into a corner where no matter if he decides to use them, or doesn't, anything other than military victory on the field will spell his end, and even a military victory will result in an insurgency to sap his country for years to come.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

Agree. However, he is not going to accept he’s lost. He will drag this bloody painful tragedy until he’s in the Czarbunker with a gun to his head with Russian soldiers at the door.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Wow.


I 2nd that!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Agree. However, he is not going to accept he’s lost. He will drag this bloody painful tragedy until he’s in the Czarbunker with a gun to his head with Russian soldiers at the door.


 For the most part I agree, but I still hope someday a General or politician with a half a brain cell walks into Putlers office with armed guard and removes him from power either in handcuffs and he stands trial for these crimes (preferable option), or carried out in a black bag (the decent human in me wants him to stand trial and answer for his crimes first though).

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## GTX (Sep 29, 2022)

More military draft centres open on Russia's land borders in apparent effort to intercept fleeing men


New enlistment centres open on Russia's land borders as nearly 200,000 flee after Kremlin announces partial mobilisation.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> For the most part I agree, but I still hope someday a General or politician with a half a brain cell walks into Putlers office with armed guard and removes him from power either in handcuffs and he stands trial for these crimes (preferable option), or carried out in a black bag (the decent human in me wants him to stand trial and answer for his crimes first though).


I pinning my hopes on Shoigu. 🤣

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## GrauGeist (Sep 29, 2022)

I would like to be proven wrong, but I don't see anyone that's powerful enough to replace Putin AND has Russia's best interests at heart.

Putin's inner circle are all self-serving, power hungry douchebags - especially clowns like Medvedev.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I would like to be proven wrong, but I don't see anyone that's powerful enough to replace Putin AND has Russia's best interests at heart.
> 
> Putin's inner circle are all self-serving, power hungry douchebags - especially clowns like Medvedev.



While I do not disagree with your overall observation, I think everyone has a line that eventually gets crossed. Even self-serving, power hungry douchebags. In fact I see some of that very nature seeing Putins failures in Ukraine as an event that could drive them into power.

There is a reason Putler trusts no one, and limits who has physical contact with him. You don’t do that if you are untouchable.

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## manta22 (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> For the most part I agree, but I still hope someday a General or politician with a half a brain cell walks into Putlers office with armed guard and removes him from power either in handcuffs and he stands trial for these crimes (preferable option), or carried out in a black bag (the decent human in me wants him to stand trial and answer for his crimes first though).


Where is Von Stauffenberg when we need him?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The only way this works is if Putler launches a strike on a NATO country such as Poland and article 5 is enacted.



It could also work if Ukraine requests an intervention from an outside power without appealing to the rubric of NATO. Now, whether that is likely is another kettle of fish, and bloody unlikely if you ask me. But Ukraine can allow anyone to use its land in helping to fight this war, much as the UK allowed the Americans to build hundreds of bases to aid fighting WWII.

Whether that actually _works_ without kicking off the big'un, not so sure. Definitely needs wargaming to read the many possible ramifications.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You see worn out, old geezers. But they bring with them a lifetime's worth of experience and wisdom.



Not to mention the ability to run the 100-yd dash in 48.3 seconds. If you thought the Russian care for their troops was bad before, wait 'til these guys -- with their wisdom and experience -- topple from a heart-attack wile charging a position, carrying 75 lbs of gear and running for their lives.

There's a reason why young men fight the wars and old men lead them. That's because the wisdom and experience is properly placed in leadership positions, not in front-line draftees.


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## Greg Boeser (Sep 29, 2022)

But, you see, Russia, like many countries has an aging population. Low birth rates does that. Now, if you send all your pensioners off to war, voila! Problem solved.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

He's also run off/killed most of the male breeders so there won't be an aging problem either.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Why don’t their crews toss in a grenade when they abandon their tanks? But, thanks from Ukraine for the free tanks. These mobile repair guys must be busy.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin's regime will not survive this war no matter how he tries to win it.


I have to agree. I can’t see how Putin can rollback now that he’s annexing Ukrainian land and mobilizing Russian civilians. There‘s no way out now for Putin. With an energy-independent Europe and a militarily and econominally strong Ukraine, the Russia of 2030 is going to be very different than that of 2022.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It could also work if Ukraine requests an intervention from an outside power without appealing to the rubric of NATO. Now, whether that is likely is another kettle of fish, and bloody unlikely if you ask me. But Ukraine can allow anyone to use its land in helping to fight this war, much as the UK allowed the Americans to build hundreds of bases to aid fighting WWII.
> 
> Whether that actually _works_ without kicking off the big'un, not so sure. Definitely needs wargaming to read the many possible ramifications.



True, but very unlikely because pretty much everyone wants to fight Russia without risking a nuclear conflict.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> True, but very unlikely because pretty much everyone wants to fight Russia without risking a nuclear conflict.


If due to a reasonable fear of a nuclear conflict we’re asking Ukrainians alone to fight the Russians on the West’s behalf, then we should give the Ukrainians whatever they need. For starters, long range attack missiles so the AFU can destroy the Kerch bridge between Crimea and Russia. We have to trust that the AFU won’t shoot them into Belgorod.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> But, you see, Russia, like many countries has an aging population. Low birth rates does that. Now, if you send all your pensioners off to war, voila! Problem solved.



Soylent Green for everyone!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If due to a reasonable fear of a nuclear conflict we’re asking Ukrainians alone to fight the Russians on the West’s behalf, then we should give the Ukrainians whatever they need. For starters, long range attack missiles so the AFU can destroy the Kerch bridge between Crimea and Russia. We have to trust that the AFU won’t shoot them into Beograd.



Well-said, Beezy. Those sonsabitches in Ukraine are biting the bullets, and we owe them everything we can to help them out, if we're not putting troops in. I was happy to see yesterday that we've given 18 more HIMARS units, more than doubling the Ukrainian fleet. May they put them to good use!

Much earlier in this thread I was very skeptical about a no-fly zone, but now I think it may be a foregone conclusion if Putin continues his brinksmanship. While I didn't support it then, I think it is tenable now if circumstances warrant.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If due to a reasonable fear of a nuclear conflict we’re asking Ukrainians alone to fight the Russians on the West’s behalf, then we should give the Ukrainians whatever they need. For starters, long range attack missiles so the AFU can destroy the Kerch bridge between Crimea and Russia. We have to trust that the AFU won’t shoot them into Belgorod.



I would not call it a fear of nuclear war, rather a desire not to incite one.

Despite what you think, I’m pretty sure everyone is already providing what they can. I know you don’t want to hear it, but its not as easy as just snapping your fingers.

But yes, overall I agree with you.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 29, 2022)

Many countries (NATO members or not) want to aid Ukraine directly, but doing so would escalate the situation more than it has.
Right now, the world community is doing the right thing by providing what Ukraine needs to whip Russia's ass and they are doing an excellent job of it.

The only way I could see direct military involvement by outaide nations, is if Putin does deploy nuclear weapons, then the U.S. would most likely intercept the nuke(s) where possible, with the Aegis system that are on station nearby (one cruiser in the Baltic, one cruiser in the Aegean).
This defense would be covered by artical 4 of the Budapest Memorandum, too.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The only way I could see direct military involvement by outaide nations, is if Putin does deploy nuclear weapons, then the U.S. would most likely intercept the nuke(s) where possible, with the Aegis system that are on station nearby (one cruiser in the Baltic, one cruiser in the Aegean).



I think we have land-based ABMs in Poland as well, but I'd defer to 
J
 J_P_C
's knowledge on that score.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m pretty sure everyone is already providing what they can.


Perhaps you’re right, but I have the sense that entire categories of weapons are been declined, not because of AFU inability or inexperience, but due to foreign/military service risk assessors whispering into Biden and NATO’s ears. What‘s the holdup on ATACMS for the HIMARS, for example? And why didn’t the US facilitate Poland’s MiG-29 donation? Here in Canada, why did we sent three dozen LAV 6 in their unarmed layout instead of the armed version, did the US block the LAV’s Bushmaster transfer? 









U.S. military leaders are reluctant to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine


Senior U.S. military leaders have advised the White House against sending longer-range missiles to Ukraine over fears it could provoke a wider war with Russia, officials said.




www.nbcnews.com





This is good news below, given the earlier US refusal to provide Patriots.









Ukraine receives U.S. air defense system


President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that Ukraine had received sophisticated air defence systems from the United States.




www.reuters.com





Are the West’s governments really providing all what they can?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Perhaps you’re right, but I have the sense that entire categories of weapons are been declined, not because of AFU inability or inexperience, but due to foreign/military service risk assessors whispering into Biden and NATO’s ears. What‘s the holdup on ATACMS for the HIMARS, for example? And why didn’t the US facilitate Poland’s MiG-29 donation? Here in Canada, why did we sent three dozen LAV 6 in their unarmed layout instead of the armed version, did the US block the LAV’s Bushmaster transfer?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think that early on in the war, donor countries were afraid the Ukrainians couldn't hold out.

As the war has gone on, and the Ukrainians have shown their mettle, most countries seem to be relaxing restrictions. USAF is (edit -- or will be, this is FY 2023 budget so effective 1 Oct) training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, for example.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Perhaps you’re right, but I have the sense that entire categories of weapons are been declined, not because of AFU inability or inexperience, but due to foreign/military service risk assessors whispering into Biden and NATO’s ears. What‘s the holdup on ATACMS for the HIMARS, for example? And why didn’t the US facilitate Poland’s MiG-29 donation? Here in Canada, why did we sent three dozen LAV 6 in their unarmed layout instead of the armed version, did the US block the LAV’s Bushmaster transfer?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Again…

NATO countries are only going to provide what they can without diminishing their own ability to defend their territories or wage war otherwise if necessary. Each country has to maintain a certain level of readiness and capability. What good does it do the US for example to provide all their, lets say, ATACMs, and then their stock is so low the US’s ability to fight is degraded. Russia is not the only “bad guy” out their. China would love the US to be put in a position where China can do what it wants with impunity.

Furthermore , I am sure their is a lot of politics involved, especially when it comes to providing potential long range offensive type weapons. NATO countries must behave in a manner that does not make them appear to be fighting Russia (even though everyone knows it), because they can’t afford to give Russia justification (at least in Putler’s eyes) to lash out at other countries such as Poland, Latvia, Estonia, or Finland. That would drag us into the 3rd World War, and no matter how better our fighting forces are compared to Russia’s, World War 3 would see potentially millions of deaths. Most likely a majority of them civilian.

Lastly, Biden does not control the world, let alone NATO. He does not control what other NATO countries provide.

Try and see the whole picture…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think that early on in the war, donor countries were afraid the Ukrainians couldn't hold out.



I think that was a huge part of it. Why degrade your capability, and potentially allow your technology to be captured by the Russians if the Ukrainians are going to lose anyhow? I don’t think anyone thought this war would still be going on.

At this point I think its more about “you can’t give what you can’t give.” If my armed forces need 10 “M-5000 MBT’s” (fictitious made up tank) to maintain our level of readiness, and I have 3 in reserves, then all I can give is 1, because I need the to rest maintain my readiness and posturing incase Putler decides to roll to Warsaw or Helsinki.

It’s all about strategy. What weapons can I provide that will give the Ukrainians the best chance to win? Now what can I realistically give?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think that was a huge part of it. Why degrade your capability, and potentially allow your technology to be captured by the Russians if the Ukrainians are going to lose anyhow? I don’t think anyone thought this war would still be going on.
> 
> At this point I think its more about “you can’t give what you can’t give.” If my armed forces need 10 “M-5000 MBT’s” (fictitious made up tank) to maintain our level of readiness, and I have 3 in reserves, then all I can give is 1, because I need the to rest maintain my readiness and posturing incase Putler decides to roll to Warsaw or Helsinki.
> 
> It’s all about strategy. What weapons can I provide that will give the Ukrainians the best chance to win? Now what can I realistically give?



Right, just like a bank account, an arms-park is not an unlimited line of credit, it is tied to actual resources on hand. My understanding is that all of the American aid is coming straight out of depots, not straight off the assembly line; we will be building a lot the next few years to replace what we have donated from existing stocks. But once that stock hits operational minimums, you cannot donate more.

I know Raytheon will be busy the next decade.


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## FLYBOYJ (Sep 29, 2022)

Just to make this crystal clear especially for those who don't grasp the concept. 

_NATO's essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its* members* by political and military means. Collective defense is at the heart of the Alliance and creates a spirit of solidarity and cohesion among its members.


NATO strives to secure a lasting peace in Europe, based on common values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Since the outbreak of crises and conflicts beyond Allied borders can jeopardise this objective, the Alliance also contributes to peace and stability through crisis prevention and management, and partnerships. Essentially, NATO not only helps to defend the territory of its members, but also engages where possible and when necessary to project its values further afield, prevent and manage crises, stabilise post-conflict situations and support reconstruction. 

NATO also embodies the transatlantic link whereby the security of North America is tied to Europe's. It is an intergovernmental organization, which provides a forum where members can consult on any issue they may choose to raise and take decisions on political and military matters affecting their security. No single member country is forced to rely solely on its national capabilities to meet its essential national security objectives. The resulting sense of shared security among members contributes to stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.

NATO's fundamental security tasks are laid down in the Washington Treaty (the Alliance's founding treaty, also known as the North Atlantic Treaty). They are sufficiently general to withstand the test of time and are translated into more detail in the Organization's strategic concepts. Strategic concepts are the authoritative statement of the Alliance's objectives: they provide the highest level of guidance on the political and military means to be used to achieve these goals and remain the basis for the implementation of Alliance policy as a whole.
During the Cold War, NATO focused on collective defence and the protection of its members from potential threats emanating from the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of non-state actors affecting international security, many new security threats have emerged, such as terrorism. Moreover, since 2014, Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine and its brutal and unprovoked war on the country since February 2022 have radically altered the security environment.

NATO is countering this vast array of threats by strengthening its deterrence and defense as the backbone of its commitment to collective defense; helping to prevent and manage crisis situations; and encouraging cooperative security, as outlined in the 2022 Strategic Concept._






Organization







www.nato.int

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'd seen some bizarre stories about the Ukraine conflict but this one's beyond bizarre. The US Army's first transgender officer (who transitioned from male to female) and her wife offered to provide information about US Army medical records from Fort Bragg to the Russian Embassy in hopes that, somehow, it might provide info on how the US Army is helping train Ukrainians.
> 
> It all sounds like a B-movie plot....so I'll let all you smart people try and figure out what on earth is going on with this story:
> 
> ...


If what they are charged with is true, take them both out and hang them.

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## Jabberwocky (Sep 29, 2022)

Assuming Lyman gets pocketed, what are the next moves for Ukraine before large numbers of Russian reinforcements start to arrive?

Pushing east from Kupyansk and North from Oskil up towards Svatove seems to be the next major objective. Svatove is about 30km from the current forward edge of the battlefield. Russia is reportedly preparing a defensive line stretching the length of the P-66 highway from the Russian border down to Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk.

Capturing, or even just interdicting, Svatove would put a major crimp in Russian logistics efforts, but I think a bigger prize is actually further to the north at Troitske. That's right up near the northern border, but it's a major railway and highway interchange. It's one of the two main rail routes out of Voronezh, which (I'm assuming) is one of the major distribution points for men, guns and stuff coming down from the north.

You cut that rail line nexus and Russia's logistics to the entire part of the northern Luhansk Oblast get hurt. Everything that is going by rail now has to go around the pre-war borders and them come west from Luhansk city, which adds several hundreds of kilometers of extra travelling distance and a couple of major interchanges as well. Essentially, they would need to travel two sides of a triangle instead of a straight shot southwards.

If it was me, I'd be trying to push north/northeast as fast as I could, cut those supply lines and then start to think about circling southward and coming down towards Starobilsk

The alternative is to move east from Lyman into the more urban spaces of the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk-Rubizhne area. That seems like a more difficult option to me - these areas have already been fought over once, and pushing in here is attacking a point of strength for little gain. You might interdict the western-most major supply line. But, if you go for Troitske you get that anyway, and one other in the mix.

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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

Who cares about their ranks? The important thing is how soon they will become dead.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 29, 2022)

I saw that too. That might be too close to Russia. Rather than go too far and stretch supply lines it might be better to take Svatove and Starobilsk. That would force Russian supply trains to a circuitous route. Plus there's a lot of dismounted Russian soldiery to round up. Prove me wrong because I think taking Troitske is a good idea too.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 29, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Assuming Lyman gets pocketed, what are the next moves for Ukraine before large numbers of Russian reinforcements start to arrive?



[...]



Jabberwocky said:


> If it was me, I'd be trying to push north/northeast as fast as I could, cut those supply lines and then start to think about circling southward and coming down towards Starobilsk.



Great answer to a good question. disrupt the supply line and only then roll up combat troops. Hungry men don't fight well, and guns do little good once out of ammo.

I'd make sure that every bridge was zeroed in, too. There's a lot of streams there that serve as chokepoints. If I could, I'd put artillery in range of major crossroads, for the random time-on-target to catch any potential counterattacks.

Essentially, as you are getting at, force the Russians onto external lines of communication while securing one's own internal lines. This gives the potential for bringing large forces to bear against pocketed Russians.

If the Ukrainians have the manpower, I wouldn't be surprised to see a thrust south to split Kherson and Mariupol in order to isolate the Russians in the south. But I don't know if the Ukrainians are strong enough to do that.


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## at6 (Sep 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> But you don't have to worry about them running away in a fight.
> Besides, how often have we heard the complaint that old men send the young off to war to die? Well, looks like Russia is going to show us!


Their walkers would slow them down too much.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If the Ukrainians have the manpower, I wouldn't be surprised to see a thrust south to split Kherson and Mariupol in order to isolate the Russians in the south. But I don't know if the Ukrainians are strong enough to do that.


I believe that the Ukrainians aren't in a hurry. Just wear the orcs down. No re-supply and it's getting colder. Then do exactly you what said. Why get your guys killed needlessly. It's almost like Guadalcanal ('Starvation Island") for the Russians and the orcs aren't quite as dedicated.


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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

The Ukrainians are using the "water principle": water follows the path of least resistance, flowing around obstacles, encircling them in the process.
Clear the land, surround the urban areas, cut off the Russian's supply and keep moving.
General Patton and Field Marshal Rommel would be damned proud of these guys (and gals) and even Guderian would be giving a nod of approval.

This is textbook material right here.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe that the Ukrainians aren't in a hurry. Just wear the orcs down. No re-supply and it's getting colder. Then do exactly you what said. Why get your guys killed needlessly. It's almost like Guadalcanal ('Starvation Island") for the Russians and the orcs aren't quite as dedicated.



To my mind it's about splitting up the Russians in order to enable defeat in detail. Isolating the Russians on the south coast has to be an imperative of the campaign. The continued slugging towards Kherson has that aim too, but it's in an area where advances are really hard to get rolling. But if you can deliver a similar thrust as what happened northeast -- hitting where they ain't -- then you've got thousands of Russians on the thin end of the branch and you can saw away. You can also emplace missiles to further restrict Russian naval ops based upon Crimea.

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## J_P_C (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think we have land-based ABMs in Poland as well, but I'd defer to
> J
> J_P_C
> 's knowledge on that score.


yes - there are US ABM system components located in Poland

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)



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## J_P_C (Sep 30, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If the Ukrainians have the manpower, I wouldn't be surprised to see a thrust south to split Kherson and Mariupol in order to isolate the Russians in the south.


I wonder where the next AFU feint is going to entice the Russians to reinforce. It might be Mariupol?

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 30, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>



That made me tear up.

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## vikingBerserker (Sep 30, 2022)

The lead element of the Russian counter attack, Private Ivan Youseff of the 55th Mechanized Division in the lead.
Hobbies include trying to remember what he had for breakfast and trying to remember what he had for breakfast.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>





Admiral Beez said:


> That made me tear up.


Me too. The hardest duty any leader has to face. Imagine doing that every day. You'll never see Vladolph Putler doing it. The fundamental difference between Russia and the west.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

_ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine, Sept 30 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin proclaimed Russia's annexation of a swath of Ukraine on Friday in a speech at the Kremlin but the event was overshadowed by one of Russia's worst battlefield defeats of the war, with one of its main garrisons surrounded.

[...]

It comes as Russian forces have faced setbacks on the battlefield, with one of the worst so far looming even as Putin spoke. Pro-Russian officials acknowledged that Russian troops were on the verge of encirclement in Lyman, their main garrison in the north of Donetsk province.

Defeat there could open the way for Ukraine to recapture swathes of the territory that Putin has now declared to be part of Russia.

[...]

The encirclment of Russia's garrison at Lyman leaves Ukrainian forces an open path to seize more territory in Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, captured earlier in some of the war's bitterest fighting.

[...]

"All the approaches and logistic routes of the enemy, through which they delivered ammunition and manpower, are in fact under fire control" of the Ukrainian army, said Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson Ukrainian troops in the east.

Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko tweeted: "Lyman is surrounded! The Ukrainian army is already in Yampil. The Russian army is trying to escape."_









Putin proclaims annexation as Russian garrison surrounded in Ukraine


President Vladimir Putin proclaimed Russia's annexation of a swath of Ukraine on Friday in a speech at the Kremlin but the event was overshadowed by one of Russia's worst battlefield defeats of the war, with one of its main garrisons surrounded.




www.reuters.com





It's nice and well to claim a piece of land, but it's all just words if you cannot hold it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

https://censor.net/en/news/3370645/if_russian_grouping_in_lyman_manages_to_be_completely_destroyed_at_withdrawal_occupants_will_not_have



The Russian army trapped in Lymann is preparing to break out of the city. There is only one exit route - near the village of Torske. This route is under the fire control of Ukrainian troops.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 30, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>




Not going to lie. Brought a tear to my eye, especially because of the children.

Vladolf Putler must be stopped and held accountable.

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## Crimea_River (Sep 30, 2022)

The big question is what the cornered dog does now that he's annexed the eastern regions and laid the groundwork for WMD retaliation if "attacked". That, and how the west will respond in such an event.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Not going to lie. Brought a tear to my eye, especially because of the children.
> 
> Vladolf Putler must be stopped and held accountable.



And I also hurt for the children of the Russian soldiers sent to die in Ukraine. They too are victims of this tyrannical regime and so many now will grow up without a father.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The big question is what the cornered dog does now that he's annexed the eastern regions and laid the groundwork for WMD retaliation if "attacked". That, and how the west will respond in such an event.



It should not matter that he annexed them. The eastern regions were taken by violent force and are still Ukrainian by law.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The big question is what the cornered dog does now that he's annexed the eastern regions and laid the groundwork for WMD retaliation if "attacked". That, and how the west will respond in such an event.


Now's the time for some level headed power broker to initiate regime change. Ol' Vlad needs a career change, like maybe integrity testing of a padded cell, or perhaps subterranean fertilizing of daisies.

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## Crimea_River (Sep 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It should not matter that he annexed them. The eastern regions were taken by violent force and are still Ukrainian by law.


I agree it shouldn't matter but unlike the rest of us he doesn't think that way.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 30, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Sep 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> And I also hurt for the children of the Russian soldiers sent to die in Ukraine. They too are victims of this tyrannical regime and so many now will grow up without a father.


Soldiers always pay the price of the fools in power. 

I have always given thanks that the war I served in was Cold, though we still had men and women who went home in a flag draped box.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sep 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I agree it shouldn't matter but unlike the rest of us he doesn't think that way.



True…


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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> or perhaps subterranean fertilizing of daisies.


Better still, Sunflowers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The big question is what the cornered dog does now that he's annexed the eastern regions and laid the groundwork for WMD retaliation if "attacked". That, and how the west will respond in such an event.



I wonder if he realizes that the bloom is off his threats, and so they may not have as much sway as before.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

Seems Ukraine has the means to deal with "partial mobilization", be ir 300K or 1 million

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I have always given thanks that the war I served in was Cold, though we still had men and women who went home in a flag draped box.


I never was sent overseas during the rumble in the jungle, but I still attended too many funerals In my four years. ACM training is risky business, and too many "walking wounded" sent to tropical island paradise to get their head together didn't make it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

What a subtle way of encouraging a coup!


Also, any confirmation of this?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> What a subtle way of encouraging a coup!
> 
> 
> Also, any confirmation of this?




To both tweets:

_KYIV, Sept 30 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday Ukraine was formally applying for fast-track membership of the NATO military alliance and that Kyiv was ready for talks with Moscow, but not with President Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian leader made his comments in a video which appeared intended as a forceful rebuttal to the Kremlin after Putin held a ceremony in Moscow to proclaim four partially occupied Ukrainian regions as annexed Russian land.

"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO," Zelenskiy said in a video on Telegram.

The video showed Zelenskiy announcing the membership bid and then signing a document flanked by his prime minister and the speaker of parliament.

The announcement was likely to touch a nerve in Moscow which casts the NATO bloc at home as a hostile military alliance bent on encroaching in Moscow sphere of influence and destroying it._









Ukraine applies for NATO membership, rules out Putin talks


President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a surprise bid for fast-track membership of the NATO military alliance on Friday and ruled out talks with President Vladimir Putin, striking back at Moscow after it said it had annexed four Ukrainian regions.




www.reuters.com





Well, Vlad, it looks like your fears have come to life.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

That may be more interesting than Putin's speech.

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## wlewisiii (Sep 30, 2022)

The problem facing Ukraine's NATO application is the need for a PM change in Hungary...

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> The problem facing Ukraine's NATO application is the need for a PM change in Hungary...


"V O needs to go! V O needs to go!" The word on the street.
Sorry, Tucker.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)



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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wonder if he realizes that the bloom is off his threats, and so they may not have as much sway as before.


I doubt his "cornered dog" situation lends itself to a balanced perspective on his options.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> That may be more interesting than Putin's speech.



Or maybe the press conference is just to thank Putin

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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

Aside from being one of Ukraine's most generous weapons donor, Putin has also ramped up Western arms sales.

In the words of Red Forman (U.S. television character from "That 70's Show" sitcom):
"Way to go, dumbass..."

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## manta22 (Sep 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Soldiers always pay the price of the fools in power.
> 
> I have always given thanks that the war I served in was Cold, though we still had men and women who went home in a flag draped box.


Most people don't realize how many soldiers/sailors/airmen are lost in operational accidents. The stuff they work with every day are designed to very efficiently kill people. Sometimes it is just something stupid, like falling backwards off a deuce- and-a- half tailgate doing 30 mph. It happened.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Most people don't realize how many soldiers/sailors/airmen are lost in operational accidents. The stuff they work with every day are designed to very efficiently kill people. Sometimes it is just something stupid, like falling backwards off a deuce- and-a- half tailgate doing 30 mph. It happened.



Being an Air Force firefighter, we were keenly aware that fire didn't really care about whether or not we were at war. The only fatality in my fire station during my hitch happened in a peacetime training fire. He died in the line of duty and gave his life for his country all the same -- your number could come up at any time.

An active flight-line is a very dangerous workplace whether or not we are at war, and no matter your actual job.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aside from being one of Ukraine's most generous weapons donor, Putin has also ramped up Western arms sales.
> 
> In the words of Red Forman (U.S. television character from "That 70's Show" sitcom):
> "Way to go, dumbass..."


I'm looking forward to Putin wearing an ass hat.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An active flight-line is a very dangerous workplace whether or not we are at war, and no matter your actual job.


Our A school instructors would show us their cruise books from their tours on Yankee Station. The first two pages were all black with all the fatalities' portraits, officers (mostly flight crew) on one side, and enlisted (mostly flight deck and "black gang") on the other. Enlisted always outnumbered officers, though the officers were flying combat over the north. EXCEPTION: We saw a _Forrestal _cruise book that had * ten *black pages of thumbnail pictures.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 30, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It should not matter that he annexed them. The eastern regions were taken by violent force and are still Ukrainian by law.


Indeed. And he sets a dangerous precedent for Russia to adhere to. China grabbing some land and holding a sham referendum, for example.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sep 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aside from being one of Ukraine's most generous weapons donor, Putin has also ramped up Western arms sales.
> 
> In the words of Red Forman (U.S. television character from "That 70's Show" sitcom):
> "Way to go, dumbass..."


It seems next Russian weapons Lend lease package is on track at Lyman.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Indeed. And he sets a dangerous precedent for Russia to adhere to. China grabbing some land and holding a sham referendum, for example.


Beau (of the Fifth Column) always describes international affairs as "that eternal poker game where everyone's cheating, there's no room for morality or sentiment, no right or wrong, and the only measure of success is power".

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## buffnut453 (Sep 30, 2022)

Hadn't seen it mentioned but Russia attacked a humanitarian convoy near Zaporizhzhia this morning killing at least 30 people and wounding another 88 (images from the BBC).

















The fall of Lyman can't come soon enough...and I truly hope there are many hundreds, if not thousands, of Russian soldiers caught in the trap.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 30, 2022)

More from the BBC:
_
Every day, convoys of people arrive in a supermarket car park in Zaporizhzhia city, escorted in by police vehicles.

They've made the hazardous trip out of Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine, finally reaching the relative safety of this regional capital still firmly under Ukrainian control.

And yet this is one of four Ukrainian regions that Russia is formally annexing, after a five-day exercise it called a referendum and Ukraine and the West condemned as a sham.

Among those handing their papers to police is Anton Osenev, who says the Russians tried to mobilise him twice to fight against his own country, around his home city of Melitopol.

"We weren't home for the first attempt," he says. "On the second occasion they stayed at our house for some time"._

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## buffnut453 (Sep 30, 2022)

And more...Peskov doesn't know where the borders of Russian-annexed Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are located:
_
In Moscow, a Kremlin official was today unable to answer a question about the exact borders of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - two of the four Ukrainian regions that Russia intends to annex later.

Referring to the annexation of Crimea eight years ago, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "The Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are recognised by Russia within 2014 borders."

Asked about the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - the latter of which is not under complete Russian control - Peskov seemed less certain.

"I need to clarify this, I can't answer this question right now," the AFP news agency quotes him as saying.

The multiple annexations are due to be formalised at 13:00 BST at a so-called signing ceremony._

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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Most people don't realize how many soldiers/sailors/airmen are lost in operational accidents. The stuff they work with every day are designed to very efficiently kill people. Sometimes it is just something stupid, like falling backwards off a deuce- and-a- half tailgate doing 30 mph. It happened.


My Uncle lost several buddies in the Pacific during Typhoon Cobra, a few were lost when their Destroyers were sunk and one was swept overboard just as he was about to enter the bridge of my Uncle's destroyer (my Uncle was a signalman).

Most of the 700+ guys survived intense combat, only to be taken by mother nature during that storm.

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> The fundamental difference between Russia and the west.


I wouldn't say Russia but rather a dictator and a proper leader. remember this war isn't meant to be against the Russian people but rather the thugs supporting/enabling Putin.

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



The US is also saying similar - basically if you have dual nationality (where one of those nationalities is Russian), get out or risk being mobilised conscripted and not being able to be assisted.

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

At least 23 people killed in Russian missile strike in Ukraine, says regional governor


A convoy of civilian vehicles on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine was hit in a Russian missile strike, the regional governor says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

'There are four new regions of Russia': Vladimir Putin announces annexation of Ukrainian territory


President Vladimir Putin says four occupied areas of Ukraine will be amalgamated into Russia following a series of local referendums Kyiv and the West have denounced as illegitimate.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Ukraine applies for NATO membership, rules out Putin talks
> 
> 
> President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a surprise bid for fast-track membership of the NATO military alliance on Friday and ruled out talks with President Vladimir Putin, striking back at Moscow after it said it had annexed four Ukrainian regions.
> ...


Isn't there a rule about membership can't be granted to those nations involved in an existing dispute/conflict?

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

Unfortunately it does appear to show a Ukrainian tank getting destroyed but interesting never-the-less given how close the combat is:

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> I wouldn't say Russia but rather a dictator and a proper leader. remember this war isn't meant to be against the Russian people but rather the thugs supporting/enabling Putin.


I agree, but the attraction to, and the enabling of, a strongman like Putin by the Russian people is an artifact of a millennium of survival under autocratic rule, with all the behaviors, traditions, and attitudes that entails, notably the devaluation of human life other than their tribal circle. They've never had the opportunity to develop liberal democratic reflexes, traditions, and behaviors. Confidence in these things comes with education and experience, which they've never had. They have the leadership they deserve and prefer.

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## GTX (Sep 30, 2022)

'You've got to question his state of mind': What moves does Putin have left?


Vladimir Putin has regularly warned the West of the dangers of getting stuck in foreign conflicts. So why does he appear to be ignoring his own advice and wading deeper and deeper into his ruinous war with Ukraine?




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Isn't there a rule about membership can't be granted to those nations involved in an existing dispute/conflict?



Yes, there is. But the request for fast-track could be taken up once this war is over ... whenever that may be.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> They have the leadership they deserve and prefer.



I'm not sure they prefer it, and I don't think they deserve it, but they've certainly been trained for it over the centuries.

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## XBe02Drvr (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not sure they prefer it, and I don't think they deserve it, but they've certainly been trained for it over the centuries.


Certainly they've been trained for it, so deeply that when they had a fleeting chance to grasp for something better, they couldn't overcome their ingrained habits and embark on the scary and complex path to a modern democracy. Their history is of leadership by personality, not by rule of law, with its (sometimes misplaced) faith in the integrity of those elected to uphold that law and the rights it supports. Scary thought if your experience is of corruption, oppression, and vodka.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Isn't there a rule about membership can't be granted to those nations involved in an existing dispute/conflict?


I think it's President Zelenskyy thumbing his nose at Vladolph. Putler was ranting about NATO expansion. Earlier in the war, Ukraine not applying to NATO and Ukrainian neutrality were among the talking points (I think). "Well screw you, putler. No more Mr. Nice guy, I'm applying to NATO. "

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Certainly they've been trained for it, so deeply that when they had a fleeting chance to grasp for something better, they couldn't overcome their ingrained habits and embark on the scary and complex path to a modern democracy. Their history is of leadership by personality, not by rule of law, with its (sometimes misplaced) faith in the integrity of those elected to uphold that law and the rights it supports. Scary thought if your experience is of corruption, oppression, and vodka.



The bitch about democracy is that it requires active participation in order to succeed. The Russians as a nation don't seem to have that; it's been beaten out of them by various tsars, party secretaries, and this latest, er, _president_.

In one sense it's like infantry, they've been trained to stay low and hug the earth -- so finding the lieutenant who stands up and says "follow me!" is kind of hard after all this time. Such initiative has been drummed out of many of them. That's not to say all; their dissidents are and through history have been brave, forthright, clever.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 30, 2022)

According to this piece, which summarizes todays events, there are 3-5,000 Russian soldiers in Lyman. Let’s hope it’s the higher number and that every last one of them gets caught in the net.

The “celebration” in Moscow is also…interesting. According to one woman, she was bussed into Moscow from an outlying region and had no clue what it was all about. Really, REALLY sad when you have to coerce your “supporters.”









Ukraine war: Russia completes land-grab as Kyiv's territory annexed


President Putin has sparked an international outcry by annexing four regions of occupied Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 30, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> According to this piece, which summarizes todays events, there are 3-5,000 Russian soldiers in Lyman.


I was going to ask if those 3-5,000 were Russian soldiers or mostly Donetsk Repulic militia. But with the annexation, they’re all Russians. The AFU will know the difference and likely treat any Ukrainians fighting for Donetsk as the traitors they are.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

ISW had this to say yesterday:



> The Kremlin's contradictory statements and procedures demonstrate the fundamental nature of the systemic weakness of the Russian military establishment that have characterized the entire invasion



I think this is an apt point. Disorganization seem rampant through multiple facets of command, whether operational, logistical, or now this Charlie Foxtrot Shanghai program. The incompetence infecting the operational arm seems pretty rampant in the support element as well. Nowhere does their military leadership pull off a decision without issues, it seems.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

Just imagine how more effective Russia's ground forces would be, if they actually used their missile/artillery against Ukraine forces instead of civilian targets.

Not only is a missile launched into a cafe or school a missed opportunity to eliminate a number of opposing forces, it also hardens the citizenry and the world in general.

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## buffnut453 (Sep 30, 2022)

Ukraine advance on Russian outpost challenges Putin’s grip on Donbas


Ukrainian troops are moving to capture the Russian-held eastern town of Lyman, threatening a new setback for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's campaign in the Donbas as he prepares to declare the region part of Russia.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just imagine how more effective Russia's ground forces would be, if they actually used their missile/artillery against Ukraine forces instead of civilian targets.
> 
> Not only is a missile launched into a cafe or school a missed opportunity to eliminate a number of opposing forces, it also hardens the citizenry and the world in general.



It's like they've never read of the WWII bombing campaigns and what they did to civilian attitudes, which generally harden the hearts of those in those conditions. 

Reading today about the strike on the civilian convoy that killed 20+ and injured scores more, I read that it was hit by three S-300 SAMs. They're so desperate to kill civilians that they're resorting to SAMs for land attacks.

Shit like this is why I think Zelenskyy is right, that there's no negotiating with this sonofabitch. And all of that is of his own doing.

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## Admiral Beez (Sep 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Shit like this is why I think Zelenskyy is right, that there's no negotiating with this sonofabitch. And all of that is of his own doing.


Agreed. And besides there’s no way he can beat Ukraine now. Ukraine has the best of all worlds, they don't need to worry about the economics of war, they don't need to worry about domestically producing/financing the materials of war, and they get modern, if not the latest weaponry, a growing ammunition supply, plus satellite and signals intercept intelligence from NATO. All Ukraine needs to focus on is logistics, morale, leadership and fighting expertise…. of which they have aplenty. It’s as if Ukraine has all the cheat codes and is playing in sandbox mode. Once Ukraine has sufficient arms and logistics for 1/2 million soldiers they will be unstoppable.

The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. And besides there’s no way he can beat Ukraine now. Ukraine has the best of all worlds, they don't need to worry about the economics of war, they don't need to worry about domestically producing/financing the materials of war, and they get modern, if not the latest weaponry, a growing ammunition supply, plus satellite and signals intercept intelligence from NATO.



I don't see it in such glowing terms, but I agree with your point that Ukraine is going into the winter well. Their victory three weeks ago ensured their survival through the winter, no matter what, and that's a good thing.



Admiral Beez said:


> All Ukraine needs to focus on is logistics, morale, leadership and fighting expertise…. of which they have aplenty. It’s as if Ukraine has all the cheat codes and is playing in sandbox mode. Once Ukraine has sufficient arms and logistics for 1/2 million soldiers they will be unstoppable.



Yep, my impression is that Ukrainian leadership is up to the task. They've stayed a step ahead the whole way through, and that's really important in retaining the initiative.



Admiral Beez said:


> The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.



Those 300k newbs are in for a treat.

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## SaparotRob (Sep 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The big difference will be this winter, where the AFU has the warm weather clothing, weapons, vehicles, food and kit to operate and fight in all weathers. Meanwhile the Russians will be freezing and starving.


Plus the AFU has the extremely warm support of the populace.

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## GrauGeist (Sep 30, 2022)

Now, since Putin is working from Hitler's playbook, we're about to see an undermanned, under supplied, ill-clothed, half starving Army get encircled during the throes of winter and get fed into the meat grinder.

This entire dog and pony show from February until now, is EXACTLY the embodiment of the saying: "he that forgets history is doomed to repeat it".

And if I have seemed to be "clairvoyant" with my past "predictions", it's not because I have a special talent to see into the future (if I did, I'd work the stock market like a Prom dress), it's because I've read the book! 

Putin and Hitler both fawned over their "history", but neither one actually knew WTF they were talking about - fortunately for us (in both cases).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 30, 2022)

The problem with both of them is that they only have read the history they wanted to read.

We all want to tell ourselves just-so stories.

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## WARSPITER (Sep 30, 2022)

The other problem with both of those people and others is that once megalomania fully sets in they start to think in terms
of being the one who is creating history - and of course all else before them becomes irrelevant.


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## SaparotRob (Sep 30, 2022)

I was watching an interview with Nina Khrusheva(?), Nikita Khruschev's granddaughter. She discussed how close to Stalin Putin is. She mentioned that Khruschev is looked down upon by Putin. Something along the lines of not being despotic enough. I'm wondering if that has something to do with Putin's nuke waving. Perhaps he doesn't want to be another Nikita Khrushchev.

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## Glider (Sep 30, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other problem with both of those people and others is that once megalomania fully sets in they start to think in terms
> of being the one who is creating history - and of course all else before them becomes irrelevant.


Putin's place in History is already set. Even if the fighting stopped today and whatever happens in the next six months. He has destroyed Russia's Economy, Military, Political system (such as it is), laid the east of Russia wide open to China's influence and potential takeover as well as it's historical influence overseas.

No one will want to have anything to do with Russia and nobody will be afraid of it again. Globally it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to fill the void and that's something few people would bet against them doing.

I am certain that Putin's place in history is set, and it isn't one that he wants.

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## at6 (Oct 1, 2022)

While Pootler makes his nuclear threats, he cites Hiroshima and Nagasaki as precedent for his potential use of WMDs in Ukraine. His rationale doesn't hold water since the USA was the one attacked. He is the dirty bastard who has done the attacking. If he does decide to go nuclear, I hope the damn things are in such disrepair that they explode on the launchers.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

at6 said:


> While Pootler makes his nuclear threats, he cites Hiroshima and Nagasaki as precedent for his potential use of WMDs in Ukraine. His rationale doesn't hold water since the USA was the one attacked. He is the dirty bastard who has done the attacking. If he does decide to go nuclear, I hope the damn things are in such disrepair that they explode on the launchers.


Putin is banking on the legend of the mighty USSR and it's terrifying Arsenal - what he is either oblivious or ignorant of, is that in the years since the Cold War, technology has advanced to the point that *if* a nuke is launched, countermeasures are deployed at the same time the launch source becomes a target via satellite telemetry for a retaliatory strike.

His nuclear sabre rattling also fails to take into consideration that if one nuclear power is engaged by Russia, he's also engaging all of that particular nation's nuclear allies.

His ass is currently getting kicked by Ukraine, but he's in for an epiphany if he f**ks around with the big league boys.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 1, 2022)

I believe the phrase you're looking for is "Fuck Around and Find Out". 

He's been finding out a lot

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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I believe the phrase you're looking for is "Fuck Around and Find Out".
> 
> He's been finding out a lot


There is a club called "F**k Around And Find Out", Finland is a charter member and Ukraine is a recent addition.

But the U.S. and UK, are top tier - there is no FAAFO, it's "give your soul to Jesus because your ass is mine".

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## WARSPITER (Oct 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> Putin's place in History is already set. Even if the fighting stopped today and whatever happens in the next six months. He has destroyed Russia's Economy, Military, Political system (such as it is), laid the east of Russia wide open to China's influence and potential takeover as well as it's historical influence overseas.
> 
> No one will want to have anything to do with Russia and nobody will be afraid of it again. Globally it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to fill the void and that's something few people would bet against them doing.
> 
> I am certain that Putin's place in history is set, and it isn't one that he wants.


To us yes. To him the necessary 'sacrifices' must be made (not his of course) to achieve the ultimate goal (whatever that is).
People like this surround themselves with sycophants and devious/nasty people who are willing to do whatever they are told
in order to benefit.

This creates a bubble which someone else will inevitably burst. Then the rats will leave as usual. Hitler in the bunker is a perfect
example of this. "Um, Adolf mate, have to pop home as I think I left the oven on" (didn't know your home address was Argentina).

The problem is that as things go from worse to baddest the blame sets well and truly in. Again, Hitler - "The German people have
failed me therefore all can die along with me". In Putin's case there must be a happening within Russia to remove him before he 
gets to the everyone else has failed me stage. Hitler didn't have a red button to push.

As Shakespeare didn't say " Prick me and do I not burst". With these people prick is the operative word.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 1, 2022)

This is interesting...Turkey has denounced Russia's land-grab in Ukraine and refuses to recognize Russian ownership of the 4 "referendum" regions:

_Turkey's foreign ministry has condemned Russia's declared annexation of four occupied regions of Ukraine - echoing the condemnation by Turkey's Nato allies on Friday.

A ministry statement says Turkey "did not recognise Russia's annexation of Crimea in an illegitimate referendum in 2014 and has emphasised its strong support to Ukraine's territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty on every occasion.

"In accordance with this stance adopted in 2014, we reject Russia's decision to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaphorizhzhia regions of Ukraine.

"This decision, which constitutes a grave violation of the established principles of international law, cannot be accepted."

Turkey has tried to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, and its diplomacy with the UN led to the recent deal to free up Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea._

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## buffnut453 (Oct 1, 2022)

Ukraine claims that Lyman is now surrounded:

_The large Russian grouping in Lyman is "surrounded" and settlements around the town have been recaptured, says Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for Ukraine's forces in the east.

He told Ukrainian TV "our data shows that about 5,000-5,500 Russian troops were in Lyman", but he said that number was lower now because of recent "active combat action" in which "many" Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.

Cherevatyi said all continuing breakthrough attempts by Russian troops had "failed". He also spoke about the importance of Lyman, which, if conquered by Ukrainian troops, would allow them to advance on Kreminna and Severodonetsk, both of which are key Russian-held strongholds.

"It's also very important psychologically, because – as President Zelensky said yesterday – Ukraine's armed forces are beginning to dictate their will – and not just defend."

Yet the military operation "is not over yet," he concluded._


I am so hoping this is true...and that this marks the start of a new, more rapid, advance so Ukraine can take back more of its territory before winter sets in.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Oct 1, 2022)

Another Russian attack on a civilian convoy. The convoy was trying to get away from the fighting. Over 20 people killed. Russia blamed the attack on Ukraine:

_As many as 20 people were killed when a civilian convoy was shelled by Russian troops in Ukraine's north-eastern Kharkiv region, a top local official says, citing preliminary information.

Oleh Synehubov says the attack happened in the town of Kupiansk, close to the Russian border. He did not specify when exactly it happened.

"The occupiers attacked civilians who tried to escape from the shelling. This is cruelty that has no justification," Synehubov wrote in a post on social media.

The reported attack has not been independently verified.

On Friday, 30 people died when Russian rockets hit a civilian convoy in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, local officials said.

Russia blamed Ukraine for that attack._


An updated report says the convoy comprised 7 civilian cars and that 10 of those killed were children:


_




_

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## buffnut453 (Oct 1, 2022)

Here’s one in the eye for Putin’s energy war against Europe:

_Gas has begun flowing down a new pipeline from Norway to Poland that will give central and eastern Europe another alternative option to Russian energy. 

Poland had been dependent on Russia for its gas for decades until supplies were cut off in April after it refused to pay its bills in roubles.

The opening of the pipeline and other infrastructure means Poland is no longer dependent on Russian gas. 

Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said the opening of the new link marked the end of Russia's domination and blackmail in Poland's gas market. 

The gas flow marks a historic moment for Poland. 

The plan to build the pipeline was originally conceived more than 20 years ago, but successive governments gambled that Russian gas was both cheaper and reliable. 

Russia's exploitation of its status as a monopoly supplier to charge high prices, and later its annexation of Crimea in 2014 changed minds in Warsaw.

Poland then approved projects to source gas from elsewhere. 

Firstly, it built a terminal to import liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the US. Now it can receive supplies directly from Norway. 

Leaks from two gas pipelines between Germany and Russia that may have been the result of sabotage have raised concerns about the safety of Europe's energy infrastructure. 

Norway has stepped up security at its pipelines._

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## buffnut453 (Oct 1, 2022)

LOOKS LIKE LYMAN HAS BEEN RETAKEN BY UKRAINE!!!!!

_In the last half hour, several Russian military commentators have been posting messages on their Telegram channels saying that the Ukrainian army have either "already captured or, at a minimum, entered Lyman".

Earlier this morning, a video was posted on social media showing Ukrainian soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag at the entrance of Lyman.

"If there is a chance to defend and recapture the city, then it is incredibly small," said one Russian pro-war commentator._

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## Glider (Oct 1, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> LOOKS LIKE LYMAN HAS BEEN RETAKEN BY UKRAINE!!!!!
> 
> _In the last half hour, several Russian military commentators have been posting messages on their Telegram channels saying that the Ukrainian army have either "already captured or, at a minimum, entered Lyman".
> 
> ...


I wonder how many Russian POW's there are now. There were reports that Ukraine either had taken possession of, or at least had significant weapons covering any remaining roads. That plus the reports that a number of breakout attempts had been halted describes a grim picture if you are one of the Russians trying to get out. Surrender is the only realistic option.

Let alone how much equipment will have been captured

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)

Putin yesterday: Annexed Ukrainian regions part of Russia "forever".
Lyman liberated less than 24 hours after.

That is what i call short attention span !!!

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)

An army marches on its stomach, Napoleon Bonaparte.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)

Next stop: Kreminna



There are also rumors of a thrust east of Kupyansk towards Svatove

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The bitch about democracy is that it requires active participation in order to succeed.


Sadly Russia is not the only country where apathy or actions to prevent participation have undermined democracy. Glad I live in Australia where it is easy and compulsory to vote.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 1, 2022)

It's easy and compulsary to vote in the newly annexed provinces of Russia, too. They come to your house!

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> It's easy and compulsary to vote in the newly annexed provinces of Russia, too. They come to your house!


Not quite the same thing.

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Director of Ukraine nuclear plant allegedly detained by Russia


The head of the Zaporizhzhia plant, with "exclusive responsibility for nuclear safety", has been seized by Russian forces, Ukraine's state nuclear company says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

'What he's saying we know is not true': West rejects Putin's claim it sabotaged gas pipelines


The United States and its allies vehemently deny allegations made by Russian President Vladimir Putin that it was "Anglo-Saxons" in the West who sabotaged gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

The world is reacting to Putin's annexation of parts of Ukraine — here's what it all means


Moscow says four occupied Ukrainian territories will become part of Russia in a move dismissed by Ukraine and the West as a sham. Here's a quick look at what could unfold next.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Russia’s newest armored vehicles make combat debut in Ukraine


The Russian Army has reportedly deployed a batch of its most sophisticated ground combat vehicle to Ukraine. Several Russian K-4386 Typhoon-VDV armored vehicles have reportedly been used in battle in Ukraine's occupied territory for the first time. The video, which began circulating on social...




defence-blog.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

The mapper reports a big fire on Crimea.









Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...




liveuamap.com

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)



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## Greg Boeser (Oct 1, 2022)

He will now conscript all men of fighting age within the new territory. So all the Ukrainain soldiers are now actually Russian.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The mapper reports a big fire on Crimea.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 Seems a military plane crashed at Belbek airport. Some said it was a mig-31









Military aircraft catches fire and explodes during landing in Crimea


HUGE plumes of black smoke were seen over Crimean skies today after a military aircraft was understood to have exploded upon landing at the airport near Sevastopol




www.express.co.uk

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 1, 2022)

_Here is a paradox. Westerners tend to hugely underestimate the level of passive compliance which a ruler in Kremlin enjoys (nearly total). At the same time, they tend to hugely overestimate the level of the *active* support he enjoys. Most of it is very, very passive. Yes, Putin has lots of supporters. And yet, almost no one of them would choose to spend their free time coming to the Red Square and listening to his speech. So he is forced to ship there government employees en masse, to serve as his audience. Russia is a country of extreme, unthinkable passivity. It goes both ways though. Very few would make a choice to lift a finger against regime. But even less people would make a choice to lift their finger *for* regime. That's why Russian political structure is super fragile._

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## SaparotRob (Oct 1, 2022)

Very insightful.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 1, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Never thought I'd ever be cheering T-72s and MiG 29s but here we are.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> i
> General Patton and Field Marshal Rommel would be damned proud of these guys (and gals) and even Guderian would be giving a nod of approval.


Especially that Irish field Marshall, Tim O'shenko.

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## fubar57 (Oct 1, 2022)

Sub-title of CBC article "*Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive against invading Russian forces has angered Moscow.*"



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/lyman-ukraine-russia-war-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-1.6602888

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Seems a military plane crashed at Belbek airport. Some said it was a mig-31
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Looks to me like the putative crash set something else off. There's no way all that is coming from a single-seat fighter on its own. The thick black smoke implies POLs burning. The paucity of grey or white smoke (which is usually steam, not smoke) indicates that they have little water on it at the time the video was shot.

ETA: The article mentions several explosions, which supports what I'm thinking. Debris from the crash probably set something else off.

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Russia is losing on the battlefield — now it's losing old friends


Ukraine's lightning offensive in Kharkiv may have damaged more than just Russia's depleted army — it's also tarnished Russia's status as a regional power in Central Asia.




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Oct 1, 2022)

GTX said:


>



If I were Russian, I would be more worried about the cat. He has a real mean look about him

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## swampyankee (Oct 1, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> It's easy and compulsary to vote in the newly annexed provinces of Russia, too. They come to your house!


Sure. They just don't count* votes (or voters) they don't like.


-----
* after beating the crap out of them

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## AAIR (Oct 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Looks to me like the putative crash set something else off. There's no way all that is coming from a single-seat fighter on its own. The thick black smoke implies POLs burning. The paucity of grey or white smoke (which is usually steam, not smoke) indicates that they have little water on it at the time the video was shot.
> 
> ETA: The article mentions several explosions, which supports what I'm thinking. Debris from the crash probably set something else off.


Different view of what appears to be the same crash:

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## fubar57 (Oct 1, 2022)

From the article above if you never read it..."Russia's Defence Ministry claimed to have inflicted damage on Ukrainian forces in battling to hold Lyman, but said outnumbered Russian troops were withdrawn to more favourable positions. Kyiv's air force said it moved into Lyman, and Zelenskyy's chief of staff posted photos of a Ukrainian flag being hoisted on the town's outskirts." I'm thinking a more "favourable position" right now would be Moscow.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

"inflicted damage on Ukrainian forces" - yeah, the Ukrainians most likely tripped over all the abandoned gear the Russians left behind when they ran away "relocated to more favorable positions".


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> …but said outnumbered Russian troops were withdrawn to more favourable positions.


Does Ukraine now have the largest army in Europe? After the US and China, is Ukraine #3 in the world?


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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Ukraine now have the largest army in Europe? After the US and China, is Ukraine #3 in the world?


Last I heard, the Ukraine Army's strength (as of July of this year) was at 700,000.
This doesn't include their National Guard.

Their Navy has about 15,000 personnel, including about 6,000 Naval Infantry.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Does Ukraine now have the largest army in Europe? After the US and China, is Ukraine #3 in the world?


 
That depends on how many Russians they bag or kill.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Last I heard, the Ukraine Army's strength (as of July of this year) was at 700,000.


Me too, 700,000.









Zelenskyy: 700,000 soldiers are defending Ukraine today - Support Ukraine Army


IRYNA BALACHUK - SATURDAY, 21 MAY 2022, 11:12 AM President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that today Ukraine is being defended in the war by 700,000 military personnel. Source: Zelenskyy in an interview for Ukrainian journalists Quote from the president: ...




army.com.ua





With Russia having lost >60k troops, my thinking is Ukraine has moved to number three.

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## GTX (Oct 1, 2022)

Glider said:


> If I were Russian, I would be more worried about the cat. He has a real mean look about him


He is the one in charge.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

Thoughts on the M60 to Ukraine?









Idea: Why Not Send Old U.S. M60 Tanks to Ukraine?


There are many who are calling for the U.S. to send tank to help Ukraine fight Russia. One possible model is the old M60 tank.




www.19fortyfive.com













American Tanks For Ukraine Are 'Absolutely On The Table'
 

There is already speculation about the possibility of U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks heading to Ukraine, but there are other potential options.




www.thedrive.com





So, what changes now?









U.S. Law On Lend-Lease For Ukraine Comes Into Force


On Saturday, October 1, the law of the United States of America on lend-lease for Ukraine entered into force. <p>Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Rusla




menafn.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thoughts on the M60 to Ukraine?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Shouldn't be bad against T-72s. I don't know if the ammo loadout takes ERA into consideration. Crew matters, too.

Me, I bet they could put 'em to good use.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Shouldn't be bad against T-72s. I don't know if the ammo loadout takes ERA into consideration. Crew matters, too.
> 
> Me, I bet they could put 'em to good use.


Agreed, if they’re in good refurbished condition. I don’t see any other option for AFU tanks if the Germans won’t send Leopard 2s and the US says Ukraine can’t manage the Abrams gas turbine and advanced systems without significant (and half a year’s delay causing) training and establishment of a long support/maintenance train.

If no Leos and no Abrams, and presumably no LeClercs, Arietes and Challengers, it’s got to be the M60 or more T-72s scounged up from across Europe and maybe Asia and Africa. The M60 has the same ammo used by the M1128 Mobile Gun System, so it might be good against ERA. But with thousands of MANPATS in AFU service, is antitank the main role for Ukraine’s MBTs?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed, if they’re in good refurbished condition. I don’t see any other option for AFU tanks if the Germans won’t send Leopard 2s and the US says Ukraine can’t manage the Abrams gas turbine and advanced systems without significant training and a long support train.
> 
> It’s the same ammo used by the M1128 Mobile Gun System, so it might be good.



The comment above about supply-chain issues is pretty apt, though. We can compare capabilities 'til the cows come home, but keeping the thing operational is another thing altogether. Perhaps after the war we can do the M-1 thing, and until then complicating the supply-chain might not be beneficial, thereby bypassing the -60 altogether.



 wlewisiii
is a former tanker. I'd love to get his perspective on this.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

With the M60, like any other Western tank, there'll need to be transitional training for crews and maintenance personnel.
Add to that, ample ammunition, since western calibers differ from Soviet/Russian (eastern bloc) tanks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

<thinking more>

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

Hmmm….. there’s always some outliers that the US could negotiate. South Korean tanks to Ukraine via Poland?









Poland to buy hundreds of South Korean tanks, howitzers after sending arms to Ukraine | CNN


Poland is buying almost 1,000 tanks, more than 600 pieces of artillery and dozens of fighter jets from South Korea, in part to replace equipment donated to Ukraine to help Kyiv fight the Russian invasion, the Polish Ministry of Defense told CNN on Tuesday.




www.cnn.com





The K2 looks impressive. Same ammo as the Leopard 2 and Abrams, so easier ammunition supply.





GrauGeist said:


> With the M60, like any other Western tank, there'll need to be transitional training for crews and maintenance personnel.
> Add to that, ample ammunition, since western calibers differ from Soviet/Russian (eastern bloc) tanks.


True. Anything will need training and support, but apparently the Abrams is on the more demanding side. If it’s not Leopards and not Abrams….. IDK.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The comment above about supply-chain issues is pretty apt, though.


The issues definitely aren’t insurmountable. NATO has an entire multinational unit dedicated solely to ensuring Ukraine has what it needs.

I appreciate there a real logistical hurdles yet to overcome, but with Ukraine having a fully committed and stocked NATO right on its western border, providing all the weapons, munitions, communications kit, etc. it can, all free of charge, has any combatant nation ever had a better supply chain? It’s like running a hot dog stand and the top backer is your uncle Oscar Mayer.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The issues definitely aren’t insurmountable. NATO has an entire multinational unit dedicated solely to ensuring Ukraine has what it needs.
> 
> I appreciate there a real logistical hurdles yet to overcome, but with Ukraine having a fully committed and stocked NATO right on its western border, providing all the weapons, munitions, communications kit, etc. it can, all free of charge, has any combatant nation ever had a better supply chain? It’s like running a hot dog stand and the top backer is your uncle Oscar Mayer.



The issue becomes supply for the many systems donated.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 1, 2022)

When the dust settles, Ukraine will be a well equipped military and I suspect that they will receive the M1A1 (or M1A2).

For now, though, we need to get them equipment that they are familiar and experienced with, so that there is nothing to slow their momentum. 

The one large benefit of keeping Ukraine supplied with Eastern armor, is that Russia is providing them with huge amounts of ammunition and parts.

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## hawkeye2an (Oct 1, 2022)

How many of these do the Russians have?

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## SaparotRob (Oct 1, 2022)

Not enough.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 2, 2022)

More reporting of new conscripts being sent to the front in Ukraine without any training:









Mobilized Russians sent to war after two days of training: Rights group


Russian men compelled to fight in Ukraine have reportedly been denied medical examinations, compensation and training before being rushed into war.




www.newsweek.com

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## fubar57 (Oct 2, 2022)

Alexi....turn rifle around. Bullets come out pointy end

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 2, 2022)

Anyone confirm the translation?. Anyway it seems legit.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 2, 2022)



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## Glider (Oct 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More reporting of new conscripts being sent to the front in Ukraine without any training:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Isn't he the same guy who received his call up papers and then said that he was too important to be called up. That ethnic minorities and others should go first.

On a different note. Russia keeps talking up the potential use of nuclear weapons and understandably the west led by the USA have promised a response which would be devastating.

No one is talking about what would happen if Russia used the one weapon it has used in the past without any comeback from the west, and that is Chemical Weapons. No doubt there would be a response, but I would be surprised if the smaller countries in the west or those less 'active' in the support of Ukraine such as France, fully took part

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## Dimlee (Oct 2, 2022)

In-flight refuelling is old news. What about in-flight rearming...

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## Dimlee (Oct 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Me too, 700,000.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


700K to 750K is the realistic estimate of all defence forces that include the Army (ZSU), National Guard, Territorial Defence, national police units involved in military operations, etc.

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## Dimlee (Oct 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Anyone confirm the translation?. Anyway it seems legit.



Confirmed.

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> 700K to 750K is the realistic estimate of all defence forces that include the Army (ZSU), National Guard, Territorial Defence, national police units involved in military operations, etc.


In other words, just about all the age appropriate able bodied men remaining in country, and a significant portion of the women?


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 2, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 2, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Oct 2, 2022)

While I'm gleefully cheering on every Ukrainian advance, I need to remind myself that Russia isn't withdrawing everywhere. In some places, Russian forces are still trying to advance....and it's costing Ukraine dearly.

This article provides some pretty brave reporting, IMHO. The old lady's description of life in her apartment is heartbreaking. She shouldn't have to deal with all this.









Ukraine war: Putin's annexation will fail, say Ukrainians at eastern front


Ukrainian forces on the eastern front in Bakhmut say they will fight for every last inch of soil.



www.bbc.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 2, 2022)

"For the first and last time": Ukrainian State Border Guards address conscripted Russians


VALENTYNA ROMANENKO - SUNDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2022, 10:46 Ukrainian border guards have appealed to enlisted Russians, urging them not to enter Ukraine. Source: Press service of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Details: "For the first and last time," the message immediately emphasises.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 2, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "For the first and last time": Ukrainian State Border Guards address conscripted Russians
> 
> 
> VALENTYNA ROMANENKO - SUNDAY, 2 OCTOBER 2022, 10:46 Ukrainian border guards have appealed to enlisted Russians, urging them not to enter Ukraine. Source: Press service of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Details: "For the first and last time," the message immediately emphasises.
> ...



Powerful words…

_“During the seven months of this war, you should have understood that we will not give up a single metre of our land. Sixty thousand of your compatriots are successfully fertilising Ukrainian black soil. No matter how much more cannon fodder comes to Ukraine, it won't change anything."_

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 2, 2022)

And powerful acts.

Beside been an humanitarian measire it could be regarded as a brilliant psyop aimed at the russian homefront:

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## k2keller (Oct 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thoughts on the M60 to Ukraine?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How about seeing if they can get some Israeli conversion kits to bring the M60s up to the Sabra standard. It fires NATO standard 120mm ammunition. Sabra

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> While I'm gleefully cheering on every Ukrainian advance, I need to remind myself that Russia isn't withdrawing everywhere. In some places, Russian forces are still trying to advance....and it's costing Ukraine dearly.
> 
> This article provides some pretty brave reporting, IMHO. The old lady's description of life in her apartment is heartbreaking. She shouldn't have to deal with all this.
> 
> ...



I heard this report on the radio this morning on the way to work. The audio bespoke a full-blown battle -- shells hitting every ten or so seconds, small-arms chatter regularly punctuating the interview.

For all our happiness over the recent Ukrainian successes, this war has a long way to go, sadly.

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## Glider (Oct 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Powerful words…
> 
> _“During the seven months of this war, you should have understood that we will not give up a single metre of our land. Sixty thousand of your compatriots are successfully fertilising Ukrainian black soil. No matter how much more cannon fodder comes to Ukraine, it won't change anything."_


True. I have noticed that a lot of the Ukraine soldiers are getting equipped with far more sophisticated weapons than the basic AK47 issued to Russian troops. The general quality of the equipment is clearly improving

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## wlewisiii (Oct 2, 2022)

I don't remember seeing this here but even if it is a repeat, it's worth it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 2, 2022)

There are unconfirmed rumors of Russians collapsing somewhere near Kherson and Ukrainians advancing from north.
Will need to pay attention to this.



Edit: Some advances seem to be confirmed

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I don't remember seeing this here but even if it is a repeat, it's worth it.




That has indeed been posted here, but as you say, it's worth reposting. These guys have stepped out of civilian life and into seven-league boots, and showing themselves to be marching mofos.

We hear "Slava Ukrainia" a lot, but we need to stop and remember that Ukraine's glory is being bought by the sacrifices of people who put down the plough to take up the sword. Mucho respect and honor to these men and women staring down a superpower without flinching.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 2, 2022)

Ukrainians seem to be advancing in north too. Guess they want to liberate everything before the Duma ratifies annexation

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## Glider (Oct 2, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> And powerful acts.
> 
> Beside been an humanitarian measire it could be regarded as a brilliant psyop aimed at the russian homefront:



They are going to need a lot of phones.

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## fubar57 (Oct 2, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-izium-torture-1.6603440

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## buffnut453 (Oct 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Ukrainians seem to be advancing in north too. Guess they want to liberate everything before the Duma ratifies annexation




Yep…it seems pretty clear that Ukraine’s OODA loop is operating at a much faster rate than Russia’s. Ukraine.s advances create salients which, if Russia was able to respond dynamically, could be cut off. Instead, Russia’s inability to respond quickly enough means that forward Russian positions become, themselves, salients that Ukraine can encircle and cut off.

I hope and pray for Ukraine’s continued success. Every encirclement successfully completed by Ukraine not only liberates territory, it also traps Russian men and materiel, further diminishing Russia’s military capability.

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

Australia hits Russia with more sanctions after Ukraine annexations


The financial and travel sanctions will target 28 Russian-appointed separatists, ministers and officials, and follow the Kremlin's move to formally annex four regions of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> No one is talking about what would happen if Russia used the one weapon it has used in the past without any comeback from the west, and that is Chemical Weapons. No doubt there would be a response, but I would be surprised if the smaller countries in the west or those less 'active' in the support of Ukraine such as France, fully took part


I did post about such in an article a week or two ago.


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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Thoughts on the M60 to Ukraine?
> 
> 
> 
> ...











M60 And Leopard Tanks Offer A Strong Response To Russia’s Asymmetric Attacks


As Russia continues to target the U.S. and other Ukraine allies, the only effective deterrent response is to give Ukraine offensive weapons.




www.forbes.com

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

'An epidemic of murder': What Russia's dying millionaires tell us about Vladimir Putin's tenacious grip on power


Russia's elite businessmen are dying in more and more suspicious circumstances. Human rights campaigner Bill Browder suspects the hand of the man in the Kremlin.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

As Russia's military reputation nosedives, so do its Asian arms sales


Asia was once one of Russia's biggest weapons export markets but the war in Ukraine has accelerated falling sales




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Every encirclement successfully completed by Ukraine not only liberates territory, it also traps Russian men and materiel, further diminishing Russia’s military capability.



I think it was 

 GrauGeist
who wrote that Rommel and Patton would approve. I heartily agree with both of you: they are inside the flow, the Ukrainian Army. They're leaking into the seams and exerting force on the rear, which is a very efficient (if risky at times) way of exerting combat power.

Once you cut out the props, the table collapses. The Ukrainians are taking some risks, but aiming their blows wisely.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 2, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Watching Ukrainians haul away Russian equipment just never gets old.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think it was
> 
> GrauGeist
> who wrote that Rommel and Patton would approve. I heartily agree with both of you: they are inside the flow, the Ukrainian Army. They're leaking into the seams and exerting force on the rear, which is a very efficient (if risky at times) way of exerting combat power.
> ...


And a nod from Guderian, too.

Over the past seven months, the Ukraine military has gotten a feel both for Russia's ability and ineptitude, and are now exploiting what they've learned.

The water principle in combat is a calculated risk but pays handsomely when done properly.

Like I mentioned earlier, this war and Ukraine's offensive tactics in particular, will be textbook material in war colleges and academies when all is said and done.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

GTX said:


> M60 And Leopard Tanks Offer A Strong Response To Russia’s Asymmetric Attacks
> 
> 
> As Russia continues to target the U.S. and other Ukraine allies, the only effective deterrent response is to give Ukraine offensive weapons.
> ...



From your supplied link:

_Continued Russian attacks on U.S. or allied “soil or systems” merit a steady roll-back of appeasement-based policies crafted to reduce wider tensions and discourage Russian efforts to expand their invasion beyond Ukraine.

The carrots have failed and it is now time to try some sticks.

Rolling back Europe’s informal commitment to keep Western-sourced tanks, aircraft, and other “offensive” weaponry out of Ukraine is a logical first step. Russia only cares about the battlefield if the Russian Army loses significant ground or faces a significant loss._

I think that cyber attacks on government or infrastructure should be regarded as an act of war, perhaps cause for shooting, perhaps cause for cyber-responses; but this treating them as nothing is crap.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Like I mentioned earlier, this war and Ukraine's offensive tactics in particular, will be textbook material in war colleges and academies when all is said and done.



Without a doubt. This invasion and the Ukrainian defense against it also shows that overwhelming numbers mean much less than intelligent deployment and -- most importantly -- the meaning of morale on the battlefield. But yes, Ukrainian tactics here will be studied going forward, particularly in Taiwan and the South China Sea.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 2, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Nice work! I’ll be even more excited when the Ukrainian navy gets its first AIP SSK. Maybe something from Turkey?






Reis-class submarine - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## gumbyk (Oct 2, 2022)

GTX said:


>



That's one way around the Bosphorus being closed to all military.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And a nod from Guderian, too.



I was thinking the same thing. It almost makes me want to get his book off my shelf and read it again.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 2, 2022)

Zelenskyy confirms liberation of Arkhanhelske and Myroliubivka


ALONA MAZURENKO- MONDAY, 3 OCTOBER 2022, 00:42 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has officially confirmed the liberation of two settlements in Kherson Oblast - Arkhanhelske and Myroliubivka. Source: Zelenskyy's nightly video address Quote: "I am thankful to the soldiers of the 129th brigade of my...




www.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 2, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> That's one way around the Bosphorus being closed to all military.


Unfortunately not. Istanbul Naval Shipyard straddles the Bosporus strait, on the wrong side, rather than being in the Black Sea.


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## SaparotRob (Oct 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And a nod from Guderian, too.
> 
> Over the past seven months, the Ukraine military has gotten a feel both for Russia's ability and ineptitude, and are now exploiting what they've learned.
> 
> ...


Of course we will all find flaws with the movie version.

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## manta22 (Oct 2, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I was thinking the same thing. It almost makes me want to get his book off my shelf and read it again.


"Panzer Leader"?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 2, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Panzer Leader"?



Yes

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## buffnut453 (Oct 2, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Of course we will all find flaws with the movie version.



At least there will be no shortage of Russian kit to use as props. 

Imagine how cool it would be to make a war flick on the actual battlefield (war movies....new postwar industry for Ukraine?) and using tanks etc that actually took part.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 2, 2022)

Posted w/out comment.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 2, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Posted w/out comment.




No comment needed -- his disclaimers say it all.

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## Wildcat (Oct 2, 2022)

Scott Ritter. WTF has he been smoking?

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## GTX (Oct 2, 2022)

UK’s Radakin sees grinding duel, ‘skirmish opportunities’ in Ukraine


Adm. Antony Radakin painted a rather static picture of the conflict’s trajectory that’s not conducive to quick wins.




www.defensenews.com

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## Marcel (Oct 3, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I don't remember seeing this here but even if it is a repeat, it's worth it.



They also had a thriving industry of cybercrime. One I would not be sad to get rid of. Hopefully they use those skills now on the Russian army.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 3, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Scott Ritter. WTF has he been smoking?


Kickbacks - and hopefully in Rubles...



Marcel said:


> They also had a thriving industry of cybercrime. One I would not be sad to get rid of. Hopefully they use those skills now on the Russian army.


Did you see where, back in March, someone hacked into Putin's yacht recognition code? 









Hackers changed the call sign of a Putin-linked superyacht to 'FCKPTN' and set the ship's destination as 'hell'


The Anonymous hacking group took credit for the hack, posting on Twitter: "Now Putin's yacht is on the right track!"




news.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

This is a fascinating read:









Fear and loathing - what is daily life like in occupied Ukraine?


Fear, loathing and defiance - how Ukrainians are coping under Russian control.



www.bbc.com

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## Denniss (Oct 3, 2022)

US M60 are in long term storage for decades, they will need a complete rebuild to be of any use. Even then in standard condition they are not suitable for a modern battlefield and need a massive upgrade package. Similar for Leopard 1 although it has better mobility to start with. At best they could be used in defensive or ambush positions, they'd have to quickly move like hell once detected or they'll be easy meat for ATGMs.
Maybe they could be offered to smaller nations in exchange for russian equipment to be sent to Ukraine. Better send more M1s to Poland so they can offer the rest of their T-72 and variants

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Scott Ritter. WTF has he been smoking?


He's a convicted pedo. 









Scott Ritter - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

Denniss said:


> US M60 are in long term storage for decades, they will need a complete rebuild to be of any use.


If Ukraine has to wait a year for refurbished/modernized M60s they might as well wait for the latest gen tanks. But if the Abrams is too complicated/novel/demanding for Ukraine's abilities/training/logistics and the Leopard 2 is blocked by German _rückgratlosigkeit_, what other options beyond scrounging across Europe (and Asia/Africa?) for more T-72s and T-64s and their derivates are there?

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## Denniss (Oct 3, 2022)

Fleets of M1s/Leo 2s/Leclercs attacking russian positions = Putin claims Nato attacks us = big boom and over.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Fleets of M1s/Leo 2s/Leclercs attacking russian positions = Putin claims Nato attacks us


Surely NATO-supplied HIMARS, artillery, IFVs and MANPATS/PADS would have provoked Putin to claim as such already?

What about the South Koreans? In July Poland ordered MBTs from South Korea. Maybe these (and the 48 FA-50) can be flipped straight to Ukraine, with the US giving more Abrams (and F-16s) to Poland in exchange?









South Korea, Poland sign $5.8 billion tank, howitzer contract


Two South Korean companies have signed a $5.76 billion contract with Poland to export tanks and howitzers, Seoul's arms procurement agency said on Saturday, after Warsaw agreed to ramp up arms imports amid tensions with Russia.




www.reuters.com





I was just watching this. I can't recall any wartime president listing off multitudes of specific brigades and smaller units for commendation on national media. Impressive.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

Is it cruel of me to hope that his progeny are removed by the fighting, thus stopping his kind of mindset persisting into future generations?









Ramzan Kadyrov: Chechen leader vows to send teenage sons to front line


Ramzan Kadyrov claims his sons, aged 14, 15 and 16, are well trained and ready to fight for Russia.



www.bbc.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Ukraine has to wait a year for refurbished/modernized M60s they might as well wait for the latest gen tanks. But if the Abrams is too complicated/novel/demanding for Ukraine's abilities/training/logistics and the Leopard 2 is blocked by German *rückgratlosigkeit,* what other options beyond scrounging across Europe (and Asia/Africa?) for more T-72s and T-64s and their derivates are there?

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## swampyankee (Oct 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> From your supplied link:
> 
> _Continued Russian attacks on U.S. or allied “soil or systems” merit a steady roll-back of appeasement-based policies crafted to reduce wider tensions and discourage Russian efforts to expand their invasion beyond Ukraine.
> 
> ...


If they are being treated as nothing, and the responses aren't being publicize. They also may be getting ignored because they're completely ineffective.

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## fubar57 (Oct 3, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-annexation-1.6603885

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 3, 2022)



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## Zipper730 (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> He's a convicted pedo.


Basically, yeah: I assume that was used to compromise him. His first known offense was around 2001 (I say known because somebody in high places might have known about his proclivities earlier).

Scott Ritter: Arrests & Conviction for Sex Offenses


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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>




Less than 24 hours ago, we were highlighting that Borova would be the next town encircled by Ukrainian forces....and here we are, with that task complete, and further advances being made into "Russian" territory. The offensive is picking up pace again.

I will say that, for the most part, Ukraine's claims on progress seem to be pretty accurate. They announced they'd successfully crossed the Oskil River and, despite a few temporary setbacks, they held that line and have pushed eastwards from that bridgehead. Same-same for encircling Lyman. 

Great to see the offensive continuing. Hope they kick all the orcs out of Ukrainian territory.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

Interesting vid, including mention of the limitations of the low ammunition capacity of their tanks, requiring three withdraws for reload. Which does speak well of the AFU logistics train that they have well-stocked resupply vehicles nearby. Twenty-two shells spread out over HE and AP does seem low, when Abrams and Leo2 carry forty or more.



The booby-trapped landmines was something I hadn't considered.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No comment needed -- his disclaimers say it all.



Yeah...there was so much wrong with that soundbite.

Firstly, he's factually incorrect in stating that the US saw Russia as a paper tiger. From where I sit, the US greatly respected Russia's military capabilities. It's only after Ukraine PROVED that Russia was a paper tiger that assessments started to change...and, even then, there's still tremendous concern about Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons. 

Then there was the whole "everyone look at me" comments at the end. "Nobody listens to me," "I'm such a victim" blah-blah-blah. He's basically been silent on the topic of the Russian invasion for months...but now he claims nobody was listening to him? The reason people shouldn't listen to him is because he's a self-aggrandizing idiot who cares only about self-promotion and, frankly, has no clue about the reality.

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 3, 2022)

They were using a Mavic 3 drone.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

This made me smile:









Ukraine war: Czech crowdfunding buys 'Tomas the tank' for Ukraine


More than 10,000 people donated to the fund, which will supply a modernised T-72 tank.



www.bbc.com





Tomas the Tank....NOT Thomas the Tank Engine (two VERY different things...if you're unsure, the latter is below):

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## Glider (Oct 3, 2022)

A number of people and nations continually


Admiral Beez said:


> Interesting vid, including mention of the limitations of the low ammunition capacity of their tanks, requiring three withdraws for reload. Which does speak well of the AFU logistics train that they have well-stocked resupply vehicles nearby. Twenty-two shells spread out over HE and AP does seem low, when Abrams and Leo2 carry forty or more.
> 
> 
> 
> The booby-trapped landmines was something I hadn't considered.



Superb Clip many thanks. It shows the high level of raining within the Ukraine Army. The drones being used in real time by the commander to direct and control the attack. When to move, when to wait, when to support another tank and when to attack. How the sappers worked with special tools to work with other infantry and special forces, plus of course the infantry were supporting the armour. 
It's also interesting how well the Ukraine Army are using the T72. It's vulnerable to AT weapons that fire down and has too small a magazine, however the Russians seem to be lacking this type of AT weapon and the Ukraine are clearly having considerable success with it.

When you see this when attacking a well-prepared defensive position, you realise what little chance those hastily conscripted people stand

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Less than 24 hours ago, we were highlighting that Borova would be the next town encircled by Ukrainian forces....and here we are, with that task complete, and further advances being made into "Russian" territory. The offensive is picking up pace again.
> 
> I will say that, for the most part, Ukraine's claims on progress seem to be pretty accurate. They announced they'd successfully crossed the Oskil River and, despite a few temporary setbacks, they held that line and have pushed eastwards from that bridgehead. Same-same for encircling Lyman.
> 
> Great to see the offensive continuing. Hope they kick all the orcs out of Ukrainian territory.


Now looking for advances regarding the Kherson area as well as Svatove and Kreminna.

I never imagined that I'll know more about Ukrainian towns and rivers than my own country, lol.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 3, 2022)

Hunt for Red October anyone?









Russian nuclear submarine armed with 'doomsday' weapon disappears from Arctic harbor: report


Russia's Belgorod nuclear submarine is no longer operating in the Arctic. NATO has warned its member countries that Putin may be testing the vessel's "doomsday" weapon.




www.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

This article is really worth reading. It provides a pretty clear-headed assessment of the situation without getting overly positive about Ukrainian gains or overly negative about Russian nuclear threats.

A couple of key points include the increasingly desperate commentaries by Russian "hawks" wanting to restart their offensives to take more of Ukraine. Despite the table-thumping rhetoric, the body language and non-verbal communication (lots of sighs, for example) suggest they're resigned to being stuck in a war that, realistically, they know they can't win. Now the blame-game begins, with everyone being at fault except for Herr Putler...although even he can't escape the stink of failure that's emanating from this debacle. 

The other interesting point is about Russian nuclear intentions. They observe that using tactical nukes probably won't gain Russia anything because the hodge-podge of deployed front-line forces in Ukraine (regulars, conscripts, mercenaries, PMCs etc) probably couldn't operate in a nuclear battlefield. Now, we all know Putin doesn't give one hoot (let alone two) about whether his "brave comrades" survive. However, even he has to recognize that deliberately killing your own forces is not going to deliver success. As to a nuclear attack against a NATO nation, that would clearly spell doom for Putin's regime and the end of Russia as any kind of power. 






Institute for the Study of War


Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to




www.understandingwar.org

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

Glider said:


> It shows the high level of raining within the Ukraine Army.


Agreed. I liked how it showed their officers’ genuine concern for their troop‘s safety. Drones to watch for enemy movement and to inform the AFU offensive, infantry to protect the tanks, tanks to support the infantry. And clearly a support train not far behind to replenish the tanks and support the men.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 3, 2022)

Ukrainian forces break through in the south as Putin's problems mount


Kyiv’s troops pushed forward Monday, threatening a major new breakthrough and forcing Russian soldiers to retreat from territory the Kremlin claimed to have annexed.




www.nbcnews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The other interesting point is about Russian nuclear intentions. They observe that using tactical nukes probably won't gain Russia anything because the hodge-podge of deployed front-line forces in Ukraine (regulars, conscripts, mercenaries, PMCs etc) probably couldn't operate in a nuclear battlefield.


In that case, and assuming Putin is mad enough to believe the US would not destroy him, or does not care, the ideal targets for nuclear strikes would be those beyond the territories where the Russians have to fight. Lviv seems a good target, since it would disrupt NATO shipments from Poland, and any fallout would first be filtered by Belarusian and Ukrainian lungs before it got to Russia.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In that case, and assuming Putin is mad enough to believe the US would not destroy him, or does not care, the ideal targets for nuclear strikes would be those beyond the territories where the Russians have to fight. Lviv seems a good target, since it would disrupt NATO shipments from Poland, and any fallout would first be filtered by Belarusian and Ukrainian lungs before it got to Russia.



Lviv is only about 70km from the Polish border. While prevailing winds may tend to push radiation eastwards, there's no guarantee that conditions on the day wouldn't spread fallout towards Poland. Also, such an attack won't deliver benefits for the front-line Russian soldiers. Yes, it will disrupt resupply from the west...but it won't change the direction of the war.

It's also worth looking at the Russian tactical nuke arsenal. It includes nuclear torpedoes and ABM capabilities which are of no use against Ukraine. Most Russian tactical nukes are actually air-dropped missiles and munitions which, given the rather poor showing to-date by the Russian air force, may be challenging to employ. There are some short-range, ground-based missiles which could do the trick like the SSC-8 GLCM or the SS-26 Iskander. The latter has been used against Ukraine with conventional warheads but it's not clear how many nuke warheads, or even Iskander missiles, remain in the Russian inventory. 

Personally, I think any use of nuclear weapons by Russia is a red-line that will trigger an automatic NATO response to initiate Article 5. Even if the strike is within Ukraine, the escalation is such as to present a direct threat to NATO's member nations.

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Denniss said:


> US M60 are in long term storage for decades, they will need a complete rebuild to be of any use. Even then in standard condition they are not suitable for a modern battlefield and need a massive upgrade package. Similar for Leopard 1 although it has better mobility to start with. At best they could be used in defensive or ambush positions, they'd have to quickly move like hell once detected or they'll be easy meat for ATGMs.


what is the status of the Israeli Magach or Turkish Sabra variants?


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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Fleets of M1s/Leo 2s/Leclercs attacking russian positions = Putin claims Nato attacks us = big boom and over.


Exactly


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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In that case, and assuming Putin is mad enough to believe the US would not destroy him, or does not care, the ideal targets for nuclear strikes would be those beyond the territories where the Russians have to fight. Lviv seems a good target, since it would disrupt NATO shipments from Poland, and any fallout would first be filtered by Belarusian and Ukrainian lungs before it got to Russia.


Nuclear weapons have far more use for their deterrent effect. Once you use them they lose that power And bring all sorts of other problems.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 3, 2022)

You cannot expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable.

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

A prank call to a Russian rich kid reveals so much about who is fighting Vladimir Putin's war


It appears the burden of Vladimir Putin's partial mobilisation — and the war itself — is falling on poor, ethnic minority regions. Analysts say the move may avoid triggering a wave of anger in Moscow, but could pose problems for the president down the line.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

First Elon’s tweets:





Then Zelenskyy’s reply:



supported by that of Lithuania's president:

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Ouch…

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## cammerjeff (Oct 3, 2022)

I don't like either one, ever sense I made the mistake of actually making eye contact with him when he made an inspection of the production equipment we were installing in his plant in Reno. He then immediately had his cronies throw me out of the plant, and then complained to my supervisors that no one was leading our crews installing the machinery. 

I have had no use for that arrogant SOB sense that day back in 2017. And I never will. Could car less what he thinks, sells our invents. Just my 2 cents worth, other opinions may vary.

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

From a work colleague who's tracking social media about Ukraine. I don't think Russia will be able to hold any forces on the Oskil River; the salient north of Borova is ripe for being cut off by Ukrainian forces. Also, look for Svatove to be liberated in the next few days. Further south, if Russia isn't careful, their forces north of the Dnipro River in Kherson could simply be rolled up east-to-west by the Ukrainian offensive.

*Kharkiv:*
_
Today, Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Oskil River entered Borova which has/had (status unclear) one of the only bridges across the Oskil. Russian troops pulled back to the high ground west of Svatove. Ukrainian troops are on the western outskirts of Kreminna and control the P66 from Krasnoriches'ke to Maklivka. To the north, the Ukrainian army is pressing southeastward from Kyslivka toward Svatove on the H26. Only a few decent roads through farmland.

Kreminna is mostly surrounded by dense forest and will be hard to defend. Former DPR Defense Minister (and FSB officer), Igor Girken claimed "Russian authorities ordered Svatove to evacuate within 72 hours."

Ukrainian tactics have reportedly emphasized the use of small units (e.g. special operations forces to outflank the Russians using trails , seize control of key junctures, set up blocking forces, bring in larger forces, and then encircle the Russians._








*Kherson:*
_
Yesterday and today, Russian defensive lines in northeastern Kherson Oblast collapsed, with the Ukrainians seizing the following towns:_

_Shevchenkivka_
_Mykhailivka_
_Novo Oleksandrivka (saw pictures of Ukrainian soldiers posing_
_Havrylivka ( I saw a photo of the Ukrainian flag flying over the administrative building)_
_Dudshany (The Russians blew up the bridge at the reservoir to stop the Ukrainian advance. Russian media suggests this will just delay further Ukrainian advances))_
_
The breakthrough threatens the Russian rear. Some accounts on social media suggest that there are 25,000 Russian soldiers on the right (north) side of the Dnipro River. These forces face constrained supplies._

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

A little more info on the Kherson breakthrough...confirmed by Russian sources:









Ukraine tank breakthrough in south towards Kherson


Russian officials say Ukrainian armour has made advances in the south and east.



www.bbc.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


> First Elon’s tweets:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




How about the people in those regions who want to be Russian pack their bags and move to Russia?

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How about the people in those regions who want to be Russian pack their bags and move to Russia?


That would be my approach. When Russia took East Prussia to create the Kaliningrad Oblast the Russians rounded up all the Germans and expelled them. That seems to be the right way. Meanwhile, Georgia seems to be welcoming thousands of Russians…. not wise.


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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)



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## MiTasol (Oct 3, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Hunt for Red October anyone?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



We can hope that the subs are as well "maintained" as the tanks. If so the test will probably destroy the sub.

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Is it cruel of me to hope that his progeny are removed by the fighting, thus stopping his kind of mindset persisting into future generations?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hmmm…might need to do some reading up on use of child soldiers.









Children in the military - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## SaparotRob (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Deserving of a postage stamp!

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## SaparotRob (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


> Hmmm…might need to do some reading up on use of child soldiers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why isn't Kadyrov at the front lines? Crouching behind the lines shooting your own guys in the back if they don't move forward doesn't count.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 3, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> If they are being treated as nothing, and the responses aren't being publicize. They also may be getting ignored because they're completely ineffective.



Agreed, but then there have been successful attacks on American infrastructure in the last few years traced back to the Russian troll-farms, and I think a public statement that doing stuff like that will be considered a hostile act and subject to reply ought to be made. We shouldn't wait for a Stuxnet-type event to unfold in America before making that announcement; we should chill the waters right now, IMO.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Interesting vid, including mention of the limitations of the low ammunition capacity of their tanks, requiring three withdraws for reload. Which does speak well of the AFU logistics train that they have well-stocked resupply vehicles nearby. Twenty-two shells spread out over HE and AP does seem low, when Abrams and Leo2 carry forty or more.
> 
> 
> 
> The booby-trapped landmines was something I hadn't considered.




I love the quiet confidence of these troops. I also love how the commander of the tank troop used his drones for unit command.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That would be my approach. When Russia took East Prussia to create the Kaliningrad Oblast the Russians rounded up all the Germans and expelled them. That seems to be the right way. Meanwhile, Georgia seems to be welcoming thousands of Russians…. not wise.



Only one difference here, and a huge one. The Russians were expelling German’s from German land, whereas here they would be expelling “Russians” from Ukrainian lands.

To the victors go the spoils of war though…

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Chechen leader to send teenage sons to fight on Ukraine front


The Chechen leader says now will be the time for his three teenage sons — aged 16, 15 and 14 — to "prove themselves in a real fight" on Russia's Ukraine front.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin?


Despite Vladimir Putin's bizarre ceremonies formalising Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory, cracks are beginning to show in his once impregnable position, writes Matthew Sussex.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


> Chechen leader to send teenage sons to fight on Ukraine front
> 
> 
> The Chechen leader says now will be the time for his three teenage sons — aged 16, 15 and 14 — to "prove themselves in a real fight" on Russia's Ukraine front.
> ...



I posted this news 2 pages ago (#11,714). Please try to keep up!


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## GTX (Oct 3, 2022)

if you look at the article and not just the headline you will see that it covers a lot more.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


> if you look at the article and not just the headline you will see that it covers a lot more.



You expect me to read stuff? Sheesh... 

I'll get my coat.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 3, 2022)

GTX said:


>



If you stare at the photo long enough, you can hear the approach of a farm tractor...

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 4, 2022)

This is a harsh account, only for the Strong hearted. But shows why Ukrainians should not stop this war, under any circumstances, until the last russian is out of their rightful borders.
And why we, the west, shouldn't stop supporting them.









10 torture sites in 1 town: Russia sowed pain, fear in Izium


IZIUM, Ukraine (AP) — The first time the Russian soldiers caught him, they tossed him bound and blindfolded into a trench covered with wooden boards for days on end. Then they beat him, over and over: Legs, arms, a hammer to the knees, all accompanied by furious diatribes against Ukraine.




apnews.com

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 4, 2022)

Pro Ukrainian sources reporting forces from Kupyansk and Borova have linked up. New push reportedly heading for Svatove.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 4, 2022)

Ukraine already pushing successfully in 2 fronts.


and ... there are rumours they may open a 3rd one

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## swampyankee (Oct 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> Chechen leader to send teenage sons to fight on Ukraine front
> 
> 
> The Chechen leader says now will be the time for his three teenage sons — aged 16, 15 and 14 — to "prove themselves in a real fight" on Russia's Ukraine front.
> ...


Sending children to war? Disgusting

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## buffnut453 (Oct 4, 2022)

Interesting report from Lyman after its liberation:









Ukraine war: Liberated town shows human cost of Russia's defeat


The BBC's Orla Guerin finds desolate scenes in Lyman, a town Ukraine recaptured from Russia.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 4, 2022)

This has been reported elsewhere but it still provides interesting insights into the in-fighting among Kremlin loyalists. The comments at the end about "hotheads" and "turbo patriots" are particularly noteworthy. 









Ukraine war: Lyman retreat sparks rare criticism of Russian top brass


Some pro-war Russians are tiring of what they perceive to be an overly cautious military leadership.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> This is a harsh account, only for the Strong hearted. But shows why Ukrainians should not stop this war, under any circumstances, until the last russian is out of their rightful borders.
> And why we, the west, shouldn't stop supporting them.


Agreed. I don't know how Ukraine is going to forgive Russia for this. It took a complete regime and mindset change away from fascism in Germany for Israel and the Jewish people to come to terms and rapprochement with the Germans. There is hope though, as Germany and Israel today share excellent relations, spurred on by the former's accepting of its history.









Germany and Israel: Bilateral relations


Germany has a unique relationship with Israel. This stems from Germany’s responsibility for the Shoah, the systematic genocide of six million European Jews under National Socialism. Since diplomatic…




www.auswaertiges-amt.de





Perhaps that's the path Russia must go, to hit rock bottom, and then to reach up to others, including those it persecuted for help out of the pit. Let's hope my yet to be conceived grandchildren get to see that day.

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## fubar57 (Oct 4, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6605262

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## buffnut453 (Oct 4, 2022)

Another update on the situation in Kherson. More progress for Ukrainian forces:

_Dramatic battlefield changes in Kherson as of this morning. This is a Russian map. The Ukrainian army is pressing toward Mylove, which threatened to envelopment of Russian forces. Accordingly, the remaining Russian troops in NE Kherson pulled back to establish more defensible lines, giving up Davydiv Brid, and setting the stage for defense of the Nova Khakova dam/bridge at Beryslavka and Kozatske. 

Former FSB officer and former Russian separatist defense minister, Igor Girken, was furious about the withdrawal from Davydiv Brid as the Russians had fought tough battles to seize it and were well-entrenched. Now, he believes the goal of the Russian command is to reduce size of the front line and ensure control of the dam, the crossing, and the water supply to Crimea. 



Concentrating forces above the dam, however, makes them vulnerable to artillery—especially HIMARS—attacks. This could be the beginning of the endgame in Kherson for the Russians.





_

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 4, 2022)

Yes, definitely the situation around Kherson is developing fast. Many villages have been liberated in the last 30-40 hours.





Edit adding more recent map:

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## buffnut453 (Oct 4, 2022)

Ukraine could liberate the entire north bank of the Dnipro River within a week. One can only hope!!!!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 4, 2022)

I so want to be a fly on the wall in the “Führerbunker.”

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## SaparotRob (Oct 4, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> We can hope that the subs are as well "maintained" as the tanks. If so the test will probably destroy the sub.


Seeing as how I got this info from a YouTube site I hesitated to mention it. The presenter said that no Russian sub is quieter than the day it's first launched. I don't know when that was for Belgorod. I didn't pay attention to its Doomsday Kamikaze Torpedo of Doom, Death Weapon.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

Another airfield to hit?

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine could liberate the entire north bank of the Dnipro River within a week. One can only hope!!!!


Only but the most loyal to Putin in Russia's Kherson force north of the Dnieper river must be considering to surrender. What's the downside? You'll get to live, likely be well treated and fed and when this is over return to your families.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I so want to be a fly on the wall in the “Führerbunker.”


If this is true, the discussions in the bunker must be wild.









Russia feared to be planning major nuclear test near border with Ukraine: report


Russian President Vladimir Putin is feared to be planning a nuclear test on the border with Ukraine — where officials in the capital, Kyiv, are already handing out potassium iodine pills read…




nypost.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Another airfield to hit?



I'll see Special Kherson Cat's 10 ATACMS and raise her another 20!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Seeing as how I got this info from a YouTube site I hesitated to mention it. The presenter said that no Russian sub is quieter than the day it's first launched. I don't know when that was for Belgorod. I didn't pay attention to its Doomsday Kamikaze Torpedo of Doom, Death Weapon.


Yeah - one of Vladolph Putler's "Wunder Waffe" weapons.

The supposed doomsday "torpedoes" (which are more the size of a medium range missile) are claimed to generate a 1,600 foot high, radioactive tsunami.

Ok, so that's nothing new. Test Baker, at Bikini Atoll in July '46 was detonated at a depth of 90 feet, created a water column over a mile high and a tsunami 94 feet tall. It was a 21kt bomb.

Any nuclear equipped military can do the same thing if they drop a nuke in the water...

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## GrauGeist (Oct 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Another airfield to hit?



Why not capture it instead?

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## SaparotRob (Oct 4, 2022)

Can't we just use those cool warheads that spray a whole lot of "boom-lets" to wreck the Russian junk? _It slices, dices, peels and grates!_

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Why not capture it instead?


Per the above post it's 105 km away. Blast it first, capture it later.

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## MiTasol (Oct 4, 2022)

wouldn't this be a good one to drop one of those fuel/air bombs on that they were talking about around 10 years back. Maximum death toll with minimum equipment damage if they were predicting right. Personally thought they were overhyped


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Per the above post it's 105 km away. Blast it first, capture it later.


Doable for specops with drones, I think.

Even an aerial attack could do it. UAF still have Su-24 operative.

Risky but I think worth it.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 4, 2022)

UAF is advancing too fast. I can't learn all the names in a single day.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 4, 2022)

Another update:

_The magenta line (see map) may be the new forward edge of the battle area. The Borozenske saliant was probably the initial fallback position late yesterday after the Ukrainians outflanked the Russians in the north and east (Davydiv Brod and Novovoznesens'ke). But it was not defensible as it left the Russians vulnerable to envelopment and attack on three sides--and stretched their forces which had to defend a longer front line. Shortening the front line by moving between Chkalove and Mylove makes more sense, even if the Russians had to cede more land. Th Ukrainians are less than 40kms from Beryslavka; a straight shot down the T-22-07 and from the T-0403 between Mylove and Beryslavka. Not looking good for the Russians.

What makes this ironic is that, in the summer, the Russians redeployed the 5th, 29th, 35th, 36th, 2nd, and 41st CAA away from the Izyum front to protect Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region. That weakened the Izyum-Kupyansk sector and led to the Ukrainian counter-offensive that negated most of Russian gains in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk in the last six months. Yet even with the influx of these units in the south, the Russians are still at risk of losing Kherson and Zaporizhzhia._

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 4, 2022)

Ukraine set up a hotline for Russian soldiers and their families to find out how to surrender. 









Russian soldiers are surrendering en masse


VALENTYNA ROMANENKO - TUESDAY, 4 OCTOBER 2022, 11:46 The Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine says that more than 2,000 Russian soldiers have contacted them over the past few weeks asking for an opportunity to surrender.




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Oct 4, 2022)

Russia pushes ahead with annexation plan despite military retreats on southern fronts


The upper house of Russia's parliament votes to approve the four regions' incorporation into Russia, which taken together represent around 18 per cent of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 4, 2022)

'Lost the ability to attack': Ukraine makes some of its biggest breakthroughs in south since war began


Ukrainian forces have broken through Russia's defences in the south of the country while expanding their rapid offensive in the east, reclaiming more territory in areas annexed by Moscow and threatening their foes' supply lines.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 4, 2022)

Is Russia preparing to target vital Norwegian energy exports to Europe?


Recent drone activity close to Norwegian energy infrastructure has sparked calls for urgent security measures to prevent potential Russian sabotage of vital oil and gas exports to Europe in the coming months.




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## Glider (Oct 4, 2022)

I found it interesting that a number of the Russian reports comment on the superior and more numeric Ukraine armoured units. Then I came across this report stating that the Ukraine Army have captured their first T62 tanks. It looks as if the stories of the appalling state of the Russian reserves are true and its starting to bite



Ukraine Is Capturing Russia’s Old T-62 Tanks. Will It Use Them?

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## GTX (Oct 4, 2022)

Russia uses T-90S tanks originally bound for export customers


In the last few days, photos and videos that have appeared on social media show an export version of the T-90 tank in Ukraine. Russia faces depleting armor reserves after six months of significant losses in Ukraine and apparently decided to divert to its own forces T-90S tanks that were...




defence-blog.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 4, 2022)

The Russians are in some deep kimche. It seems they got caught between two stools ... so to speak, of course.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> Is Russia preparing to target vital Norwegian energy exports to Europe?
> 
> 
> Recent drone activity close to Norwegian energy infrastructure has sparked calls for urgent security measures to prevent potential Russian sabotage of vital oil and gas exports to Europe in the coming months.
> ...



That would certainly be an act of war against a NATO country.

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## GTX (Oct 4, 2022)

US may establish new command in Germany to arm Ukraine: report


A final decision on the command is expected within the next few weeks.




www.defensenews.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That would certainly be an act of war against a NATO country.


Hopefully USN, RN and French nuclear attack boats and along with Germany and Norway’s SSKs are patrolling nearby. Poland has one Kilo-class SSK, but anything that acoustically sounds Russian might best be elsewhere.

It’s also a good role for drones, but I think that tech is still a few years away.









US Navy Tests Autonomous Underwater Drone for Operational Intelligence Preparation


The US Navy has tested a prototype of the underwater drone Snakehead for an end-to-end IPOE mission at Narragansett Bay Test Facility.




www.thedefensepost.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia uses T-90S tanks originally bound for export customers
> 
> 
> In the last few days, photos and videos that have appeared on social media show an export version of the T-90 tank in Ukraine. Russia faces depleting armor reserves after six months of significant losses in Ukraine and apparently decided to divert to its own forces T-90S tanks that were...
> ...


The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 4, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.


We'll give you a discount for "gently used" items.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> We'll give you a discount for "gently used" items.


No it's alright. We will wait until the war is over and buy them as army surplus from the Ukrainian ministry of Agriculture
(support farmers everywhere).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 4, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.



To be fair America did that as well in WWII. P-400 springs to mind immediately. UK as well in WWI with that Chilean (?) battleship. I think it was the HMS _Agincourt_?

ETA: Not Chilean, Brazilian, then sold to Turks, then seized by England.


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## fubar57 (Oct 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If you stare at the photo long enough, you can hear the approach of a farm tractor...

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 4, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> View attachment 689573​


Won't work. Ukrainain tractors are scavengers. They'll drag anything off to their lairs.

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## Glider (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.


I remember during the Falklands when every Sea Harrier we had was sent south. However, some were building for India, and they sent people to check that there wasn't a sudden increase in the speed of their build. They were concerned that the RN might 'borrow' them

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)

Glider said:


> I found it interesting that a number of the Russian reports comment on the superior and more numeric Ukraine armoured units. Then I came across this report stating that the Ukraine Army have captured their first T62 tanks. It looks as if the stories of the appalling state of the Russian reserves are true and its starting to bite
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Is Capturing Russia’s Old T-62 Tanks. Will It Use Them?



Re: T62

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To be fair America did that as well in WWII. P-400 springs to mind immediately. UK as well in WWI with that Chilean (?) battleship. I think it was the HMS _Agincourt_?
> 
> ETA: Not Chilean, Brazilian, then sold to Turks, then seized by England.


Well USA was at war then, not in a special military operation. 

But yes, the situation is dire for Rusia and that is going beyond the bottom of the barrel.

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## ThomasP (Oct 5, 2022)

Interesting bit of info.

Per US COMINT:

The Chechen Commander in the Kherson has requested permission from fearless leader Kadyrov to "leave the current combat area".

The Chechens have also reported that they can no longer move about in the rear area in units as small as squad/fire team size, due to fears of being attacked by the Russian troops. Apparently, a significant portion of the Chechens job in the area has been to catch and in some cases kill Russian troops abandoning their positions. One such recent incident resulted in the death of a Russian commander well liked liked by his men. The subsequent red-on-red firefight resulted in 4 dead Chechens and an unknown number of wounded.

NOTE that the source for the above is usually accurate.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.


That’s what Britain did before WW1, seizing battleships sold to Turkey and Chile that ultimately became HMS Agincourt, Erin and Canada. The latter was returned to Chile with compensation, but the first two infuriated Turkey, further pushing them closer to Germany. Such seizures and the scandals around IJNS Kongo, along with Britain’s post-WW1 economic and industrial collapse, significantly damaged Britain as an exporter of larger, new-built warships. Russia is about to experience this decline of export military sales at a far greater scale.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> UK as well in WWI with that Chilean (?) battleship. I think it was the HMS _Agincourt_?


Just saw your post on the same subject. HMS Eagle was also taken from Chile, but again Britain paid fair value as compensation. I doubt anyone is going to want Rubles in place of their seized Russian tanks.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s what Britain did before WW1, seizing battleships sold to Turkey and Chile that ultimately became HMS Agincourt, Erin and Canada.


Nowadays there are even much more arms sellers, specially for not ultrahigh tech hardware, so the decline will be hard. 

South Korea, Israel, Turkey, Australia,... all them can sell arms sustitutive for russian weapons and more reliable (or not proven crap at least).



Admiral Beez said:


> Russia is about to experience this decline of export military sales at a far greater scale.
> 
> I doubt anyone is going to want Rubles in place of their seized Russian tanks.


Totally agree.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Nowadays there are even much more arms sellers, specially for not ultrahigh tech hardware, so the decline will be hard.


China is the winner here. Every African, Middle East and Asian tinpot despot will turn to Beijing in place of Moscow for tanks and other weapons. Likely with China’s political tentacles well established as well. Look at Kazakhstan, where they’ve essentially got a free pass to kick Russian influence out of the country because Beijing will protect them.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 5, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting bit of info.
> 
> Per US COMINT:
> 
> ...



Many thanks for that fascinating insight. Kadyrov does come across as a REALLY nasty piece of work. He just wants to fight and doesn't care who he's fighting. Thus there is some sense in his Chechen forces being used as backstops to prevent the front line retreating....and, naturally, those in the front line really, REALLY HATE that kind of thing. It's one thing to be killed by the enemy. It's another thing entirely to have no tactical freedom to withdraw because you'll be killed by your own side. That's a death-knell for morale.

That said, if Russian forces are killing each other, then it's saving some Ukrainian bullets and shells.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 5, 2022)

Pesky Peskov, the Baghdad Bob of the Ukraine war, is at it again:
_
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has told the BBC that Russia will retake areas of Ukraine that it is currently retreating from.

Speaking during a call with journalists, Peskov said the territories "will be with Russia forever, they will be returned"._

Just how delusional are these people? If Russia can't hold on to its gains with the forces it has today, how are 300K untrained and unfit conscripts going to turn the tide of the war? 

I've yet to find details, but there's reporting of Ukrainian advances continuing towards Kherson while, in the north, Ukrainian forces have recaptured territory within the Luhansk region.

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 5, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Oct 5, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-mobilization-ethnic-minorities-buryat-1.6605501

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)

An interesting theory about Nordstream ruptures



Nordstream II (Electric Instapundit) | The LawDog Files



NEVER ATTRIBUTE TO MALICE THAT WHICH CAN EASILY BE EXPLAINED BY STUPIDITY

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> China is the winner here. Every African, Middle East and Asian tinpot despot will turn to Beijing in place of Moscow for tanks and other weapons.


Few years ago yes, but now many countries are wary about chinese intentions as neocolonialism, like Sri Lanka and some african ones

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)

Spain and Portugal confirm Ukraine has joined their bid to host 2030 World Cup


It has been reported that Ukraine would want to host one of the groups in the 48-team tournament.




uk.sports.yahoo.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 5, 2022)

Amazing....just AMAZING!!!

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## SaparotRob (Oct 5, 2022)

Say WHAT?!!???!


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## buffnut453 (Oct 5, 2022)

While we're having a comedy moment, Kiril Stremousov, Russia's Deputy Administrator of Kherson actually said this. And the look on Olga's face is priceless.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 5, 2022)

Maskirovka!


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## gumbyk (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The final nail in the coffin for Rusia as a weapons exporter? Isn't nice to grab your customers hardware for own use.


After this showing, who is going to buy Russian?


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## SaparotRob (Oct 5, 2022)

I said this before. Ukrainian scrap dealers.

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## J_P_C (Oct 5, 2022)



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## J_P_C (Oct 5, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Oct 5, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>



I note some in the thread aren't convinced it was real. I do hope an anti-armor weapon was kept trained on them until the operation was done and also too many soldiers got up out of position. They should have stayed down and kept the vehicle and crew under observation. Only one person should have approached the BMP-2 once it stopped and gave the people surrendering instructions.

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## J_P_C (Oct 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I note some in the thread aren't convinced it was real. I do hope an anti-armor weapon was kept trained on them until the operation was done and also too many soldiers got up out of position. They should have stayed down and kept the vehicle and crew under observation. Only one person should have approached the BMP-2 once it stopped and gave the people surrendering instructions.


you may be right.... from other hand - how much time you are sacrificing for training in topic - "perfect way of taking BMP2 crew as a POW". I would say there is 50/50 chance that was show for internet or just action improvised by platoon commander "lets doo it best as we can imagine"


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Amazing....just AMAZING!!!



But it is true or fake?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> While we're having a comedy moment, Kiril Stremousov, Russia's Deputy Administrator of Kherson actually said this. And the look on Olga's face is priceless.
> 
> View attachment 689617


1984

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## SaparotRob (Oct 5, 2022)

I've seen it reported by mainstream media as well.


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## wlewisiii (Oct 5, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> you may be right.... from other hand - how much time you are sacrificing for training in topic - "perfect way of taking BMP2 crew as a POW". I would say there is 50/50 chance that was show for internet or just action improvised by platoon commander "lets doo it best as we can imagine"


Can't say how much training they get. We got training in that type of operation at least once a year on active and before deployments in guard/reserve. In the Army Reserve, I was one of those giving the training and we had lots of hide away weapons that the troops were supposed to find on us "prisoners".


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> After this showing, who is going to buy Russian?



It already started.
Its in Spanish, short summary ...
Argentina is looking for a new supersonic jet plane. Yesterday the mig-35 was discarded. According to the Argentinian air force chief, main reason is Ukrainian war, although doubts on logistic support for mig-35 played an important role too. The remaining candidates are JF-17, HAL Tejas or second hand F-16 from Denmark.








La Fuerza Aérea Argentina descarta al MiG-35 de los candidatos a futuro caza


La Fuerza Aérea Argentina (FAA) ha descartado al caza MiG-35 de entre los candidatos evaluados para ser el futuro caza de la institución. La noticia fue a




www.zona-militar.com

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## J_P_C (Oct 5, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Can't say how much training they get. We got training in that type of operation at least once a year on active and before deployments in guard/reserve. In the Army Reserve, I was one of those giving the training and we had lots of hide away weapons that the troops were supposed to find on us "prisoners".


i'm understanding your point, keep in mind that most of ZSU personnel are amateurs with less than 6 months of service, some of them have already accumulated tons of real combat experience, probably even more than most of NATO servicemen will be able to to get during their whole professional carrier, but limitation is that real life learning is not as diversified as an academic education. Of course learning curve is steep - good marks promoting them to the next course bad ones are rather deadly option. All we are observing during this war is backing my opinion about Ukrainians - most of them are though and clever, a kind of peoples you always would like to have as a friend never as an enemy.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 5, 2022)

Back to 1917?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 5, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-mobilization-ethnic-minorities-buryat-1.6605501



And what might end up being the ultimate irony: the resentments founded upon this discriminatory conscription and deployments (as I've also read that ethic minorities have been, all along, more likely to be deployed to this invasion) may well touch off honest separatist movements in these provinces.

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## GTX (Oct 5, 2022)

Neighbours constantly heard screams' from Russian torture chamber

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## GTX (Oct 5, 2022)

Putin vows to stabilise annexed regions Ukrainian troops are reclaiming


Reeling from Ukrainian gains in the past few weeks, Russia does not fully control any of the four regions it last week officially claimed as its own.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 5, 2022)



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## Glider (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> But it is true or fake?


I suspect his respect has only come after the last six months

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## buffnut453 (Oct 5, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> But it is true or fake?



The link was shared by a work colleague who's part of a team that have been monitoring Russia for years. If there were any suspicions this was fake, then it would have been noted within the community before being shared.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Back to 1917?



At 1:52, I see a light blue beret - what's Russian Airborn doing in that mix?


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## GTX (Oct 5, 2022)

Russia loses U.N. aviation council seat in rebuke


Russia failed to win enough votes for re-election to the United Nation's aviation agency's governing council on Saturday, in a rebuke of Moscow for aviation-related actions taken after its invasion of Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 5, 2022)

That's gotta sting'


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 5, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia loses U.N. aviation council seat in rebuke
> 
> 
> Russia failed to win enough votes for re-election to the United Nation's aviation agency's governing council on Saturday, in a rebuke of Moscow for aviation-related actions taken after its invasion of Ukraine.
> ...



They're still hosting the World Series of Whiffleball, to my knowledge. There's that.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 5, 2022)

They're whiffing alright.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They're whiffing alright.



An airball, indeed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 5, 2022)

On a more serious note:

_At the United Nations, Russia is lobbying for a secret ballot instead of a public vote when the 193-member U.N. General Assembly next week considers whether to condemn Moscow's move to annex Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south after staging referendums in the provinces._









Putin marks low-key birthday as Ukraine pressures mount


Russian President Vladimir Putin marked his 70th birthday with little fanfare and a decree targeting a crucial Western energy investment, as signs grew that key parts of his Ukraine invasion were unravelling to trigger unprecedented criticism at home.




www.reuters.com





There's a scent of shame overhanging this request. This should be rejected. Moscow knows that its motives are impure and they know that the rest of the world knows that too; hence the desire for a secret vote.

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## at6 (Oct 6, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Sending children to war? Disgusting


I hope they surrender or get their arses shot off.


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## at6 (Oct 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If this is true, the discussions in the bunker must be wild.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wouldn't it be wonderful if the Orcs screwed up and nuked their own cities?

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## wlewisiii (Oct 6, 2022)

at6 said:


> Wouldn't it be wonderful if the Orcs screwed up and nuked their own cities?


Shrug. Tell them such a "test" will be considered an act of war and the usual response will happen. 

Personally, I'd also say that means a nuclear response on Moscow but what do I know?


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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

Well, not sure how the Belgorod can "test on the border of Ukraine" since it was stationed in Severomorsk, up north.
It would have to pass into the Black Sea in order to conduct "tests".

Obviously, passing the Bosphorus is out of the question - so if it gets past Turkey, there will be serious questions.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 6, 2022)

Pro-Ukrainian sources report forces east of the Oskil river and in northeastern Kherson have slowed recent rapid advances to allow heavier units (MBTs and artillery) to be brought up. Russian sources also report Ukrainian forces pausing to mass for attacks on defensive positions. Early reports are that Ukrainians have started shelling defensive positions in and around Kreminna as preparations to puncture the Svatove – Kreminna line.

Exploitation phase may not yet be over, but Russian defenses are definitely stiffening and slowing the loss of territory. At least two Russian infantry brigades (one an all volunteer naval infantry unit) have been pulled out of the Donbas grouping in the last few days and pushed north to help with the defense of Kreminna and Svatove. This increases Russian overall strength in the area by about 20%, but may relieve pressure on Bhamut (at least to the north of the city).

In Kherson, Ukrainians are reportedly worried about bringing up heavy armour without infantry support. Defensive strongholds bypassed in the area may still have Russian troops able to call in artillery or attack armour columns with ATGMs. Speculation is that they're planning to advance south and west from Davydiv Brid to widen out the bridgehead there (crossing is supported by pontoon bridges only) and link up with other forces.

There are elements of at least eight Ukrainian brigades involved in the advances in the Kherson area, reportedly opposed by a strength of about six Russian brigades west of the Inhulets river. Russia now has elements of at least 14 regiments on the northern side of the Dnipro, including the full 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division and the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division. 

Russian forces may also be willing to give more ground in the area to the northeast of Kherson, as they have better prepared positions to fall back on. OSINT reports are that Russian forces have been building extensive fixed defenses in and around the towns/villages on the north bank of the Dnipro. Primary defense point seems to be Nova Kharkova and nearby settlements.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I note some in the thread aren't convinced it was real. I do hope an anti-armor weapon was kept trained on them until the operation was done and also too many soldiers got up out of position. They should have stayed down and kept the vehicle and crew under observation. Only one person should have approached the BMP-2 once it stopped and gave the people surrendering instructions.



Reports are that the surrender was geniune, but pre-arranged. Hence the cameraperson not being in cover. 

Ukraine has set up a phone line for Russian troops to arrange their surrender by. The footage will reportedly be used for two purposes: to share via Russian social media channels encouraging surrender, and to share with Ukrainian troops on the process to accept Russian surrenders.

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## ThomasP (Oct 6, 2022)

The Ukrainian troops appeared to be using ~standard police procedures during the surrender. Possibly that is how they have been trained for such actions?


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## ThomasP (Oct 6, 2022)

Interesting bit of info.

"Putin asserts control over Zaporizhzhia plant"

"Putin orders Russian operator to take over Ukraine nuclear plant as his military struggles continue"

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## hawkeye2an (Oct 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting bit of info.
> 
> "Putin asserts control over Zaporizhzhia plant"
> 
> "Putin orders Russian operator to take over Ukraine nuclear plant as his military struggles continue"


Where have we seen this before? Putler was going to free them from the Nazis, right?

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 6, 2022)

They don't look very enthusiastic to me. Are they?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> They don't look very enthusiastic to me. Are they?



The little one in the middle of the front row looks very cheerful.

Maybe vodka fuelled?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 6, 2022)

Heard some news that the daughter of Alexander Dugin was indeed killed by ukrainian elements. 

Frankly, I don't know what they thought this could accomplish



https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics/us-intelligence-ukraine-dugina-assassination/index.html


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 6, 2022)

Nice read on how the war might end. I specially liked the part on not giving up to nuclear blackmail

_" ... giving in to nuclear blackmail won't end the conventional war in Ukraine. It would, however, make future nuclear war much more likely. Making concessions to a nuclear blackmailer teachers him that this sort of threat will get him what he wants, which guarantees further crisis scenarios down the line. It teaches other dictators, future potential blackmailers, that all they need is a nuclear weapon and some bluster to get what they want, which means more nuclear confrontations. It tends to convince everyone that the only way to defend themselves is to build nuclear weapons, which means global nuclear proliferation."_









How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?


Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you




snyder.substack.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Obviously, passing the Bosphorus is out of the question - so if it gets past Turkey, there will be serious questions.


I’m surprised that Russia hasn’t ignored Turkey and sailed a new fleet up the Bosporus to the Black Sea. It’s not as if there’s a chain across the strait. What‘s Turkey going to do, unilaterally start a war and shoot at Russian warships as they pass by? I think the three reasons the Russians haven’t called Turkey’s bluff are: that there’s little for the Black Sea fleet to do; the AFU anti ship batteries will sink any new arrivals unless they remain uselessly away from the combat areas; and, any new arrivals will be forever trapped in the Black Sea as Turkey will need to forcibly close the strait.


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## Snautzer01 (Oct 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> unilaterally start a war and shoot at Russian warships as they pass by?


Yes.

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:
unilaterally start a war and shoot at Russian warships as they pass by?


Snautzer01 said:


> Yes




Look at a large scale map of the Bosporous. Ships in transit are like ducks in a shooting gallery. Even running it submerged is a losing proposition.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Given the missile attacks on the city of Zaporizhzhia this morning, it seems pretty clear that the Russian military and political leadership have still not learned a single lesson from this war. 







Attacking civilians does nothing but strengthen resolve. That lesson was learned during the Blitz in 1940, during the Allied bombing offensive against Germany 1943-45, and again in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

It's even more stupid given that Russia is running out of some stocks of munitions and yet they continue to waste missiles on targets that won't improve Russia's situation on the battlefield. It's CRAZY!

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## ThomasP (Oct 6, 2022)

Turkey owns (as in territorial waters and the land on both sides of the Bosporus) and so has total control on what goes on in the area. The only reason their is maritime traffic through the Bosporus is because Turkey allows it. At least in terms of international law.

The Bosporus Strait is only 2300 ft wide at its narrowest point, with no where to hide on the Black Sea until you get to the eastern end (the same area where the Russian navy is hiding now). Like Finland in the north, Turkey has had only one foreign (potentially existential threat) enemy to worry about for the last 70 odd years and that is Russia. Even without NATO Turkey could stomp the Russian Black Sea Fleet. With NATO potentially on their side . . . The Strait is too far from Russia for any kind of serious air superiority contest on the part of Russia.

Unless Russia was willing to nuke Turkey there would be no real war, just the slaughter of any Russian naval ships that tried to force the strait. And maybe the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet as a whole if it became required. Turkey would lose some surface vessels (naval and merchant) and subs and aircraft, and have to eliminate the Russian submarines and the subsequent naval mine problem, but Russia would never again be able to pass through the strait unless Turkey said it was OK.

Turkey currently has both surface and air launched variants of the Harpoon in their inventory. Along with a host of other guided weapons that could be used against any Russian naval threat. For most of the Strait, artillery in direct fire mode would be enough to disable or destroy any surface ship.

"List of equipment of the Turkish Land Forces - Wikipedia"
"List of active Turkish Air Force aircraft - Wikipedia"
"List of active ships of the Turkish Naval Forces - Wikipedia"

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 6, 2022)

Changing of topic, Russian native microprocessor industry seems to be collapsing as fast as their military.

This are the companies expected to produce Russian servers and supercomputers and native Russian processors intended to replace Intel and AMD offerings (that of course are banned since invassion started).








Former Co-Owner of Russia's Baikal Microelectronics Goes Bankrupt


Russia's T-Platforms Goes Bankrupt.




www.tomshardware.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 6, 2022)

When will Ukraine move to sever the land bridge to Crimea? In addition to the Kerch bridge to Russia, there are three road connections between Crimea and mainland Europe, all controlled by Russia.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Given the missile attacks on the city of Zaporizhzhia this morning, it seems pretty clear that the Russian military and political leadership have still not learned a single lesson from this war.
> 
> View attachment 689719
> 
> ...



... not to mention that Russia claims this territory is its own ... meaning Russians are bombarding Russia.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> When will Ukraine move to sever the land bridge to Crimea? In addition to the Kerch bridge to Russia, there are three road connections between Crimea and mainland Europe, all controlled by Russia.



I'd imagine they need to secure Kherson and Melitopol as a precondition, in order to guard the flanks of such a drive.


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## ThomasP (Oct 6, 2022)

There is no strategic or tactical reason to destroy the Kerch Bridge at this time (I think).

Once the Russian forces are looking for a way out of Crimea it might be useful to destroy it, but it might be better to leave it intact since having the Russians leave is the point. Also with the bridge intact the Russian-leaning civilian population has a way out if they choose to use it.

Just a thought.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> There is no strategic or tactical reason to destroy the Kerch Bridge at this time (I think).
> 
> Once the Russian forces are looking for a way out of Crimea it might be useful to destroy it, but it might be better to leave it intact since having the Russians leave is the point. Also with the bridge intact the Russian leaning civilian population has a way out if they choose to use it.
> 
> Just a thought.



Agreed, it's better to allow them a route of retreat. While one would rather capture those soldiers, you're right that giving Russian civilians an exit route is smart, to redress the demographics of the island without resorting to forced resettlement.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Interesting update that provides the amount of retaken territory in Kherson this month (from the BBC):
_
The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they've retaken more than 400 sq km (154 sq miles) in the southern Kherson region since the start of the month.

"We have quite convincing successes, we do not name the directions," a spokeswoman said in a media briefing.

The land has been "freed from the occupiers [...] and we are moving forward," she added.

The BBC cannot independently verify the claims.

Kherson is one of four Ukrainian regions that Russia recently annexed in an illegal move.

But Kyiv's counter-offensive has been acknowledged by pro-Russian figures, with a Kremlin-installed official in Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, telling residents earlier this week: "There is no reason to panic."_


I do wonder if Stremousov is trying to convince himself not to panic?

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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> They don't look very enthusiastic to me. Are they?



Cringe worthy.

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## Crimea_River (Oct 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... not to mention that Russia claims this territory is its own ... meaning Russians are bombarding Russia.



Ah, yes, but the 4% of voters who opposed joining Russia live in those buildings being targeted. [sarcasm button off]

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 6, 2022)

Usually this kind of actions do more harm than good. They may (or may not) curb inflation, but shortages and black market are a given.









Belarus dictator Lukashenko BANS price increases to curb inflation


The authoritarian ally to Vladimir Putin, who is known for his unusual policies, is desperately trying to slow consumer prices which have skyrocketed 18 per cent.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 6, 2022)

They look about enthusiastic as people being sent to their deaths.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> ... not to mention that Russia claims this territory is its own ... meaning Russians are bombarding Russia.





Crimea_River said:


> Ah, yes, but the 4% of voters who opposed joining Russia live in those buildings being targeted. [sarcasm button off]



Well...the missiles hit the city of Zaporizhzhia which is solidly under Ukrainian control, so they weren't bombarding "Russians." This all comes back to Peskov's inability to define the boundaries of these "Russian" regions. Part of Zaporizhzhia (the region) is controlled by Russia today but most of it is under Ukrainian control, including the capital of the same name.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Well...the missiles hit the city of Zaporizhzhia which is solidly under Ukrainian control, so they weren't bombarding "Russians." This all comes back to Peskov's inability to define the boundaries of these "Russian" regions. Part of Zaporizhzhia (the region) is controlled by Russia today but most of it is under Ukrainian control, including the capital of the same name.



Oh, I know. My point wasn't that they were bombarding "Russians", but that they were bombarding "Russia".

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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

Russia "annexed" the four Oblasts:
Donestk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

So *technically* speaking (from Russia's point of view), they are shelling their own territory and killing their own civilians.

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Attacking civilians does nothing but strengthen resolve. That lesson was learned during the Blitz in 1940, during the Allied bombing offensive against Germany 1943-45, and again in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.


Russians seem enamored of the "blunt instrument" approach to everything. Something in their culture, yet they're so self conscious and defensive about being considered _ nekulturny _by the rest of the world, they seem to have a perpetual inferiority complex.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Russians seem enamored of the "blunt instrument" approach to everything.



Maslow's Hammer is a bitch.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I know. My point wasn't that they were bombarding "Russians", but that they were bombarding "Russia".



They're not bombarding "Russia" if that part of the Zaporizhzhia region isn't considered "Russian" territory, hence my comment about Peskov. If he can't define the boundaries of these "Russian" regions, then the whole thing seems very woolly at best. Regardless, Zaporizhzhia city never voted and hence can't (logically) be considered as part of the "Russian" region....and I do realize I used the word "logical" with any decisions or assertions coming out of Moscow.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> They're not bombarding "Russia" if that part of the Zaporizhzhia region isn't considered "Russian" territory, hence my comment about Peskov. If he can't define the boundaries of these "Russian" regions, then the whole thing seems very woolly at best. Regardless, Zaporizhzhia city never voted and hence can't (logically) be considered as part of the "Russian" region....and I do realize I used the word "logical" with any decisions or assertions coming out of Moscow.



My understanding is that the Russians declared all of the four oblasts Russian, whether or not they controlled this or that area of them. At any rate, my take was more a snarky point than anything else, because we're all aware of the fictitious nature of the "referenda".


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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

I wasn’t aware it was fictitious. I thought it was a sham.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wasn’t aware it was fictitious.


Anything that comes out of Putler's face is ficticious...


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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Anything that comes out of Putler's face is ficticious...


I thought that was farce.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I thought that was farce.



No...just arse! Sorry...ass (but arse rhymes better).

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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

It's all covered:
Anything he says is fiction.
His "presidency" and war special operation is a farce.
He is a total and complete ass.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I wasn’t aware it was fictitious. I thought it was a sham.



I'd call any sham fictitious. The sham happened, the fiction is in the results proclaimed.


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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

It’s a sham when it’s justifications are based on fiction. The. sham itself is real. There’s too many memes for it not to be.
Can we get back to the P-39?

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## J_P_C (Oct 6, 2022)

if you have mentioned P-39....

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Can we get back to the P-39?


Even the P-39 won't pull Putin out of this mess.







Just more of this.... thanks to Ukraine.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 6, 2022)

That's because the ground hog threw off the CoG in the lower picture. He was only drunk in the top one.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The. sham itself is real.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> The sham happened [...]


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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

Suddenly, I can't get the song "Wooly Bully" out of my head.

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## Glider (Oct 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> On a more serious note:
> 
> _At the United Nations, Russia is lobbying for a secret ballot instead of a public vote when the 193-member U.N. General Assembly next week considers whether to condemn Moscow's move to annex Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south after staging referendums in the provinces._
> 
> ...


They should be careful about what they wish for. If it's a secret ballot, then some of those who publicly support Russia may vote against them

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Interesting read about the (relative) lack of military equipment being provided to Ukraine by France:









Ukraine war: Questions over France's weapons supply to Kyiv


Paris's relative absence in its supply of weapons to Ukraine leaves eastern European countries wary.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting read about the (relative) lack of military equipment being provided to Ukraine by France:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



From an article linked to the article you posted:

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 6, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting read about the (relative) lack of military equipment being provided to Ukraine by France:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


These revelations are not surprising. France has always been aloof regards NATO. In the '80s, when we practiced our vehicle recognition drills, we would ID French vehicles as enemy.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

I just read an article posted by the Wall Street Journal about an hour ago. 2 Russians escaped Russia by a small boat to Alaska seeking asylum. The 2 men. Not the boat.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 6, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> These revelations are not surprising. France has always been aloof regards NATO. In the '80s, when we practiced our vehicle recognition drills, we would ID French vehicles as enemy.


I was amused by Dr. Haroche's coopting FDR's "length of hose" analogy.


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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

'That was the happiest day for me': What Ukraine's rapid territorial gains mean for these civilians on the ground


As Ukraine continues to make battleground gains, locals are being reunited with loved ones from liberated cities and, in some parts of the country, people are returning home and reopening businesses. This is what life looks like on the ground.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

Australia's Bushmasters 'performed masterfully' in combat, says Ukraine's Zelenskyy


In an address to the Lowy Institute on Thursday evening, Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlines three main ways Australia can continue to support Ukraine as it fights off a Russian invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

Russian missile razes Ukraine apartment block, Putin orders take over Ukraine nuclear plant


A missile attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia leaves people buried under the rubble, while Vladimir Putin orders a state-controlled nuclear operator to take over running Europe's largest nuclear power plant.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

Elon Musk attracts controversy as he doubles down on proposals to end Ukraine war

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> Elon Musk attracts controversy as he doubles down on proposals to end Ukraine war



Starve this attention-whore. All his money doesn't give his opinions any gravitas in a field he knows nothing about.

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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

GTX said:


>




That's hard watching.


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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

Space, the unseen frontier in the war in Ukraine


It is the first war where commercial space capabilities have played a significant role, a US general says.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Oct 6, 2022)

How Sean helped repair Ukraine's heating network before another freezing winter


Sean Moran is experiencing "reverse culture shock" back home after spending four months assisting with repairs to parts of Ukraine's water, sewerage and heating networks.




www.abc.net.au

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 6, 2022)

I keep hearing the recent Russian solders have to buy their own armor, med kits and food. Holy cripes...........

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 6, 2022)

Am I correct in seeing that Ukraine has not liberated any of the pre-2014 Russian held Donetsk Oblast? With its more numerous towns and cities, Donetsk does look like a trickier province to crack.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Am I correct in seeing that Ukraine has not liberated any of the pre-2014 Russian held Donetsk Oblast? With its more numerous towns and cities, Donetsk does look like a trickier province to crack.



According to this map, Ukraine has liberated a very small part of Donetsk, near to the regional border with Zaporizhzhia.

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## special ed (Oct 6, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I keep hearing the recent Russian solders have to buy their own armor, med kits and food. Holy cripes...........



The very last part of the video shows the capture of a Russian drone. What is the device used by the Ukrainians and how does it work?


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## vikingBerserker (Oct 6, 2022)

Ukraine's anti-drone gun brings down Russian DJI Mavic Pro UAV


A new video shows Ukraine using an anti-drone gun to force a surveilling Russian DJI Mavic Pro drone to execute an emergency landing.




dronedj.com





Its pretty interesting

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

special ed said:


> The very last part of the video shows the capture of a Russian drone. What is the device used by the Ukrainians and how does it work?



EDMS4 Sky Wiper provided to Ukraine by Lithuania:






Basically, it's a man-portable jammer to disrupt either the control link to the UAV and/or the navigation system (probably disrupting the GPS receiver).

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## at6 (Oct 6, 2022)

With all of this mentioning of Turkey, I'm now looking forward to Thanks Giving. Yum.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

The name Orcrist (Oркрист) is unfamiliar to me - perhaps 

 Dimlee
would know?


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## wlewisiii (Oct 6, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The name Orcrist (Oркрист) is unfamiliar to me - perhaps
> 
> Dimlee
> would know?


Orcrist, also know as Biter, was an elvish sword recovered in The Hobbit and wielded by Thorin Oakenshield. It was the bane of the orcs.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 6, 2022)

Here's some technical specs on the Sky Wiper, in case anyone's interested:

*Activity description*
The operator points the EDM4S jammer at the selected target and presses the trigger. The transmitted electromagnetic pulse disrupts any communication with the UAV. The drone thus disturbed may interrupt the flight and land, or it may return to the place of take-off.

*Basic data EDM4S Sky Wiper*
- manufacturer: NT Service UAB, Kaunas, Lithuania
- prototype made: ?
- series production from: ?
- service: 1 person
- weight: 5.5 kg
- dimensions after folding the shoulder rest: 830 x 220 x 360 mm
- dimensions in firing position: 1050 x 220 x 360 mm
- range: 3-5 km

*Construction description*
All modules of the system are mounted on a robust frame of light aluminum construction reminiscent of the appearance of a rifle.
- the integrated handle lowers
- integrated optical sight
- RIS assembly platform
- stand with extendable arms, which can serve as a handle
- folding stock

*Directional antennas*
- 4 antennas with the possibility of expanding to 6 antennas
- antenna for the 2.4 GHz band with a power of 10 W

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I keep hearing the recent Russian solders have to buy their own armor, med kits and food. Holy cripes...........




That is not an army. That is a recipe for disaster. Few weapons, scanty ammo, and having to find food on the hoof ... those guys will break and run at the first opportunity. Or, more likely, simply surrender for two hots and a cot.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 6, 2022)

This is Russian disinformation to lull you into complacency. 
The actual mobilization is superbly trained warriors equipped with cutting- edge war fighting equipment. The West will soon feel Putin's wrath! Kha kha kha!
Kha kha kha! Kha kha kha!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 6, 2022)

From ISW's "Takeaways" for 6 Oct:

_Key Takeaways

Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.
The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.
Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk and operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6.
Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson.
Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued to conduct routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 6.
*Local Russian officials appear to be frantically looking for ways to fund their mobilized units as the Kremlin increasingly expects local administrations to pay for the war effort from their own budgets.*
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 6 that Russian forces began the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied Kremmina and Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast._

I've emboldened what I think is an important point. This devolving of the financing of the war to local jurisdictions will impact Russian civilians perhaps as deeply as the conscription itself, if not moreso. It may be simply a shuffling of the chips, but it looks to me like the Kremlin is trying to spread and misdirect antipathy to the war as its effects start to come home in the wake of this last month's defeats.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 6, 2022)

This is what happens when a bluff has been called. The myth of the invincible Russian Bear has been thoroughly shattered.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 6, 2022)

European parliament passed a joint motion, calling for a resolution which includes more armed support for Ukraine.

Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS),* including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; *calls on the Member States to *immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard*"

European Council on Foreign Relations reports more than 250 Leopards have been identified as being available to send to Ukraine, including 108 from Spain and 60 from Germany for "immediate release", with Finland having 100 "in reserve". Other tanks in the process of being identified.

EU also passed its eighth round of sanctions, targeting about EUR7 billion in Russian exports, and setting the legal ground work for a price cap on Russian oil for the G7.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 6, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Orcrist, also know as Biter, was an elvish sword recovered in The Hobbit and wielded by Thorin Oakenshield. It was the bane of the orcs.


omg - yes, you're right!

*palmface*

It's been ages since I've read the books, so it passed right over my head.

Thanks!!


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## at6 (Oct 7, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> This is Russian disinformation to lull you into complacency.
> The actual mobilization is superbly trained warriors equipped with cutting- edge war fighting equipment. The West will soon feel Putin's wrath! Kha kha kha!
> Kha kha kha! Kha kha kha!


Are they coming with Light Sabres?


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## WARSPITER (Oct 7, 2022)

at6 said:


> Are they coming with Light Sabres?


Yes but they have to procure the batteries from the enemy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS),* including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; *calls on the Member States to *immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard*"



We'll have to see what Scholz has to say. His lack of energy thus far is not promising. Can the EU actually kick him into gear?

In the meantime:

_
The Biden administration announced a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine on Tuesday that will include key weapons, ammunition and equipment.

*Why it matters: *This is the U.S.' first military aid package to Ukraine since Russia took the escalatory step of annexing four regions of the country. The package includes advanced mobile rocket launcher systems that have been crucial to Ukrainian forces.

*State of play: *The Pentagon said the package contains four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as howitzers, artillery and mortar rounds, and small arms ammunition.


This is the first time the U.S. has sent more HIMARS to Ukraine since July, bringing the total to 20, per AP. The weapons have allowed Ukrainian forces to strike bridges used to supply Russian troops, AP said.
The U.S. has now sent Ukraine more than $16.8 billion in aid since the start of the Russian invasion, the Pentagon said.
_










The Biden administration is sending $625 million in new military aid to Ukraine


"The capabilities we are delivering are carefully calibrated to make the most difference on the battlefield."




www.axios.com





Many EU and/or NATO members have been very generous. Scholz and Macron both have been disappointing. imo.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 7, 2022)

This was a press briefing held two days ago.

It is full of useful information, numbers and such.

Of interest, is the comments regarding the provision of Western armor, which falls along the lines of what I've stated previously.









Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Def


Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura K. Cooper held a press briefing.



www.defense.gov

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## J_P_C (Oct 7, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Oct 7, 2022)

I hear France is finally coming through

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## at6 (Oct 7, 2022)

Sorry Marcel. But as far as far as support for the Ukraine, once more the French suck. The Germans are bad enough with ideas of German made equipment being sent to the Ukraine, the French have contributed nothing which is not surprising.


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## Snautzer01 (Oct 7, 2022)

at6 said:


> Sorry Marcel. But as far as far as support for the Ukraine, once more the French suck. The Germans are bad enough with ideas of German made equipment being sent to the Ukraine, the French have contributed nothing which is not surprising.


Not that black and white. Ukraine war: Questions over France's weapons supply to Kyiv


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## at6 (Oct 7, 2022)

Perhaps my bad. On the list of countries contributing to Ukrainian defense, France was not listed. What matters is the total defeat of Russia at any cost. The Ukraine deserves freedom and the world deserves a world without Putin or others like him even if they are Chinese or North Korean.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> European parliament passed a joint motion, calling for a resolution which includes more armed support for Ukraine.
> 
> Included in the joint motion is a call to "coordinate weapons deliveries through the clearing house mechanism of the European External Action Service (EEAS),* including an EU initiative for the delivery of advanced weapons systems such as Leopard tanks; *calls on the Member States to *immediately start training Ukrainian soldiers in this regard*"
> 
> ...


I think this numbers are way off. Unless the idea is to send tanks that can't fire and can't move.
Spain had 53 2E4 leopard in long term storage. 40 of them where reserved for conversion to engineering vehicles, but the lack of funding due to 2008 crisis delayed the conversion indefinitely. Of them only a little over a dozen where deemed battle ready and there where plans to offer them to Ukraine. However later on it was estimated that getting those ready would be too expensive, even requiring parts not available anymore, and the offer was retired.


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## drgondog (Oct 7, 2022)

A couple of weeks ago I predicted that OPEC would raise a single digit salute to US and NATO. I still predict economic disaster for EU, and indrectly UK, pointing to inflation and currency. A Nord Pipeline was destroyed, not by Russia - not sayin' it was US, but,... thinkin' that a lot of folks are going to starve in the dark in eastern Europe (Those countries not able to politically rely on coal power and the few Nucs left), unless sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons are lifted. Natural Gas and Fuel Oil will continue via third parties at 2X to 3X of January 2022 crude peg but not AFFORDABLE by the PEOPLE. People get grumpy when confronted with choice 'Food vs safe Shelter - but not both'. Look to Populist leadership changes in Italy and Sweden. The landscape is changing. 

Zelensky is pressuring NATO to come to the fight, up to and including nucs. Does that sound like a plea from a confident leader believing Ukraine is 'winning'? Russia may be going through trying times as far as personnel losses, but less than Ukraine as a % of reserves. Everybody is led to believe Putin is in deep kimchi. Maybe. Probably not. Deploying National Guard and then draftees into the battle will (In My stupid, ill informed opinion) will enable Russia to systematically reduce Ukraine's front line forces. Not by frontal assault, but systematic reduction by overwhelming artillery, as the 'newbies' are assimilated.

I don't think Putin is bluffing and strongly believe that leaders in EU and NATO and US need to hit a pause and seriously examine what Putin is saying. He has been consistent about cause and effect. One has to look at folks that think WWIII is both inevitable and that nuclear weapon exchange is survivable - need to be swiftly replaced by rational and intelligent folks that understand history.

I have been 'chastised' for my sources, and I accept that.

For those that are interested in the thoughts and analysis of Scott Ritter - take some time to listen to his perspectives. skip the first ten minutes and get to the questions and answers of the show. Re: Nordstream pipeline His perspectives of the US potential motivations of core interest groups in driving industry from EU (Germany) to US is certainly plausible.


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## cammerjeff (Oct 7, 2022)

Sorry to say I am really not interested in what a twice convicted Pediphile's opinion of anything is.

But I can't say your opinion on how the west supports Ukrain in wrong, if wat you think actually occurs.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 7, 2022)

at6 said:


> With all of this mentioning of Turkey, I'm now looking forward to Thanks Giving. Yum.


Get stuffed.

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## ThomasP (Oct 7, 2022)

Some interesting info.

According to the Ukrainians, they have received more than 2000 requests for instructions on how to surrender since they activated the 'I want to live' hotline. Some of the calls came from Russian conscripts still in Russia.

~370,000 Russian civilians have fled their home country rather than face the possibility of being drafted, according to neighboring nations.

Since the start of the 'limited mobilization':

Over 200,000 have traveled to Kazakhstan according to the Kazakh Interior Ministry. (~33,000 additional men left Russia for Kazakhstan in the period between the start of the war and the beginning of the mobilization.)

~93,000 have gone to Georgia according to the Russian news outlet Fontanka.

And ~66,000 have traveled to the EU, of which ~2/3 entered through Finland. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have now closed their borders(?) Finland is considering closing their border.

Russia has begun preventing/intercepting Russian men eligible for conscription from leaving the country.

Russia has requested other countries return those who have already left Russia, and to not allow further entries by any men not cleared by Russian authorities. Georgia is ignoring Russia on the subject, and Kazakhstan has said 'no'. (Kazakhstan has set up special welcoming stations along the border with food, water and other essentials.)

Russian media has put the number of men of conscription age that have left the country since the war began at ~700,000. The Russian government denies this number.

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## ThomasP (Oct 7, 2022)

I missed this when it happened. Tass, Fontanka, and Kommersant, were all hacked by Anonymous on 28 February. The message they inserted into the Fontanka website was as follows:

Dear citizens,

We urge you to stop this madness, do not send your sons and husbands to certain death. Putin makes us lie and puts us in danger.

We will be isolated from the whole world, they will stop buying oil and gas. In a few years we will live like in North Korea. What is in it for us?

To put Putin in the textbooks? This is not our war, let's stop it! This message will be deleted, and some of us will be fired or even jailed. But we can't take it anymore.

Indifferent journalists of Russia.

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 7, 2022)

drgondog said:


> A couple of weeks ago I predicted that OPEC would raise a single digit salute to US and NATO. I still predict economic disaster for EU, and indrectly UK, pointing to inflation and currency. A Nord Pipeline was destroyed, not by Russia - not sayin' it was US, but,... thinkin' that a lot of folks are going to starve in the dark in eastern Europe (Those countries not able to politically rely on coal power and the few Nucs left), unless sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons are lifted. Natural Gas and Fuel Oil will continue via third parties at 2X to 3X of January 2022 crude peg but not AFFORDABLE by the PEOPLE. People get grumpy when confronted with choice 'Food vs safe Shelter - but not both'. Look to Populist leadership changes in Italy and Sweden. The landscape is changing.
> 
> Zelensky is pressuring NATO to come to the fight, up to and including nucs. Does that sound like a plea from a confident leader believing Ukraine is 'winning'? Russia may be going through trying times as far as personnel losses, but less than Ukraine as a % of reserves. Everybody is led to believe Putin is in deep kimchi. Maybe. Probably not. Deploying National Guard and then draftees into the battle will (In My stupid, ill informed opinion) will enable Russia to systematically reduce Ukraine's front line forces. Not by frontal assault, but systematic reduction by overwhelming artillery, as the 'newbies' are assimilated.
> 
> ...



Bill, respect your opinions, I have zero respect for Ritter. I'll just leave it at that.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 7, 2022)

Having worked with people who worked with Ritter, I would say your level of respect is well founded.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

Regarding OPEC's move, three Congresscritters have introduced a bill to remove all America troops and equipment stationed in Saudi. I wish they'd put an embargo on weapons being used in Yemen as well.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

drgondog said:


> A couple of weeks ago I predicted that OPEC would raise a single digit salute to US and NATO. I still predict economic disaster for EU, and indrectly UK, pointing to inflation and currency. A Nord Pipeline was destroyed, not by Russia - not sayin' it was US, but,... thinkin' that a lot of folks are going to starve in the dark in eastern Europe (Those countries not able to politically rely on coal power and the few Nucs left), unless sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons are lifted. Natural Gas and Fuel Oil will continue via third parties at 2X to 3X of January 2022 crude peg but not AFFORDABLE by the PEOPLE. People get grumpy when confronted with choice 'Food vs safe Shelter - but not both'. Look to Populist leadership changes in Italy and Sweden. The landscape is changing.
> 
> Zelensky is pressuring NATO to come to the fight, up to and including nucs. Does that sound like a plea from a confident leader believing Ukraine is 'winning'? Russia may be going through trying times as far as personnel losses, but less than Ukraine as a % of reserves. Everybody is led to believe Putin is in deep kimchi. Maybe. Probably not. Deploying National Guard and then draftees into the battle will (In My stupid, ill informed opinion) will enable Russia to systematically reduce Ukraine's front line forces. Not by frontal assault, but systematic reduction by overwhelming artillery, as the 'newbies' are assimilated.
> 
> ...



You should change sources and travel more to Europe (if you have ever been here).

Although EU and UK economies will slow down a bit, it won't be as bad as you try to picture it. Nobody is going to starve in the dark, actually nobody did during the 2008 recesion which was 10 x worse. And no, we don't want to lift sanctions, only a few idiots think we should do so, most Europeans actually think that sanctions should be hardened. As of Italy, Meloni has eloquently embraced the EU and NATO position to support Ukraine. And Sweden has requested NATO membership.

Forget about overwhelming artillery, more recruits are useless. What you need is good logistics, and Russia is not having that. They never had to start with and they are only degrading in that respect, the arrival of HIMARS has been a game changer.

Regarding Putin, no matter if he is blufing or not, we should never make concessions to a nuclear blackmailer. Its a recipe for future nuclear war the same way that making concessions to Hitler was the recipe for WWII. We either stop Putin now in Ukraine or we will have to fight him again in the Baltic States or in Poland a few years from now.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

That is my opinion too ...

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Oct 7, 2022)

I agee but not on this.


RogerdeLluria said:


> HIMARS has been a game changer.


The game changer was and is the fighting spirit of UKR. You can put in all advanced weapons you want but if there is no fight in the people it is useless. Now with fighting spirit AND Himars thats a combo like a iron fist and an anvil.
And they have the combined output of most all secret agencies. Information gathered at Bletchley Park was nr 1 in winning ww2. Nothing changed in a army to army battle i believe.

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)

Here's hoping https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vladi...s-opponents-are-preparing-to-strike-1.6608719

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> That is my opinion too ...




I like her and her partying…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Here's hoping https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vladi...s-opponents-are-preparing-to-strike-1.6608719



Please, please, please…

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I like her and her partying…


A very smart good looking woman. And she parties like anyone of that glorious age. I vote for her.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Bill, respect your opinions, I have zero respect for Ritter. I'll just leave it at that.



Just a side thought as to how these dubious sources become popular. I’m also *NOT* saying this about Bill or anyone else here.

The problem is that people gravitate to sources that tell them what their preconceived notions, opinions, and beliefs tell them. They don’t want to know the truth or fact (or care about truth or fact) Everything they don’t want to hear is “fake news” regardless of its credibility or not. _I don’t like that. It goes against what I am told to believe. It’s fake. Or, they said something bad about me (even if its true. Its fake news_

Damn that buzzword gives me a migraine headache.

Additionally, there has been a hugely successful “indoctrination/propaganda campaign” that basically tells people there is a deep conspiracy going on, and the media is part of it. It’s really scary how many people have joined this “cult” like movement, and how people are incapable of actually thinking for themselves (even though they claim to be the ones doing the thinking).

Anyhow, we are starting to dabble way past the politics section we should not be doing. So I will say no more.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I like her and her partying…





Snautzer01 said:


> A very smart good looking woman. And she parties like anyone of that glorious age. I vote for her.



I have my heart divided between her and Stonian PM Kaja Kallas

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 7, 2022)

I disagee on that. Sources and how one should value them is prime. Lets take it out of politics and back in a realm we know more then most.
If a poster here would say the p-39 should have been the prime fighter, i do think most of use would ask what sources the poster used to get to that opinion. Sources and the people who make those are to be viewed and weighed. The person we now discuss has been to that i think and come out short. It is not all the person says is doodoo but on the whole should be labbeled with a caution warning.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> I disagee on that. Sources and how one should value them is prime. Lets take it out of politics and back in a realm we know more then most.
> If a poster here would say the p-39 should have been the prime fighter, i do think most of use would ask what sources the poster used to get to that opinion. Sources and the people who make those are to be viewed and weighed. The person we now discuss has been to that i think and come out short. It is not all the person says is doodoo but on the whole should be labbeled with a caution warning.



No disagreement. I’m only stating how these dubious sources have become so popular.

I should have added when they post their sources it usually cones with the obligatory _“I did my research. I watched a video on the internet.”_

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## GrauGeist (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I like her and her partying…





RogerdeLluria said:


> I have my heart divided between her and Stonian PM Kaja Kallas


Let's not forget Yulia Tymoshenko

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

I bet the program will be overwhelmed when the new "partial mobilization" soldiers start arriving in numbers.
3 meals a day is so tempting

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## Glider (Oct 7, 2022)

Breaking this down

_A couple of weeks ago I predicted that OPEC would raise a single digit salute to US and NATO. I still predict economic disaster for EU, and indrectly UK, pointing to inflation and currency_. 
Will times get more difficult? probably a little, but disaster, not a chance. Why because they have the support of each other, now the Russian economy, that will be a real rail crash. Interestingly, long term this will be good for Europe as they will be weaned off oil to a significant degree. Nuclear fusion is coming and he first site for the UK's prototype reactor has already been chosen. Other countries will soon follow and may well be ahead. 

_A Nord Pipeline was destroyed, not by Russia_ - So who? 

_A lot of folks are going to starve in the dark in eastern Europe (Those countries not able to politically rely on coal power and the few Nucs left)_, - Again who. In a democracy if the people start getting close to being short of food, the power stations will be turned back on. IN Russia like N Korea the people starve

_ Natural Gas and Fuel Oil will continue via third parties at 2X to 3X of January 2022 crude peg but not AFFORDABLE by the PEOPLE. People get grumpy when confronted with choice 'Food vs safe Shelter - but not both'. Look to Populist leadership changes in Italy and Sweden_. Countries are doing well at the moment (in the west) and will adapt. Notice that the new leader in Italy is supportive of Ukraine

_The landscape is changing_. *Correct*, *totally agree*, Russia is totally F----d. No economy, No Army, No Airforce, No political system, no overseas power and totally open to Chinese intervention in the East. The landscape is indeed changing

_Zelensky is pressuring NATO to come to the fight, up to and including nucs_. So where has Zelensky asked for Nato to join in or ask for Nuc's?

_Russia may be going through trying times as far as personnel losses_, You have seen the T62's being brought out of storage, mobilised troops having to buy their own armour, first aid kits, basic equipment, winter uniforms. Don't you agree that this is more than just killed and wounded

_but less than Ukraine as a % of reserves. Everybody is led to believe Putin is in deep kimchi. Maybe. Probably not. Deploying National Guard and then draftees into the battle will (In My stupid, ill informed opinion) will enable Russia to systematically reduce Ukraine's front line forces. Not by frontal assault, but systematic reduction by overwhelming artillery, as the 'newbies' are assimilated_. There is so much wrong with this I don't know where to start. All I will say is that if Russia is out of kit now, what will they be using with another 200,000 men, T54/54's

_I don't think Putin is bluffing and strongly believe that leaders in EU and NATO and US need to hit a pause and seriously examine what Putin is saying_. He knowsthat if he does this then the army in Ukraine will be destroyed by air power. Just an aside, Your belief is that Ukraine is losing, if Russia is winning why would they need Nuc's? Just asking 

_I have been 'chastised' for my sources, and I accept that_. I haven't seen any worth a candle

_For those that are interested in the thoughts and analysis of Scott Ritter - take some time to listen to his perspectives. skip the first ten minutes and get to the questions and answers of the show. Re: Nordstream pipeline His perspectives of the US potential motivations of core interest groups in driving industry from EU (Germany) to US is certainly plausible_. I have and I have never seen a less plausible set of words.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I bet the program will be overwhelmed when the new "partial mobilization" soldiers start arriving in numbers.
> 3 meals a day is so tempting



Hopefully, all those that surrender could be the vanguard of a political change in Rusia when the war is over and the POWs go back home.

Yes, I know, kind of optimistic. No need to fry me with rainbows, I will do it myself. 🌈

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 7, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Some interesting info.
> 
> ~93,000 have gone to Georgia according to the Russian news outlet Fontanka.


I wonder if that includes those fleeing to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.


ThomasP said:


> Kazakhstan has said 'no'. (Kazakhstan has set up special welcoming stations along the border with food, water and other essentials.)


Kazakhstan is done with Russia and is leaning on Beijing for security. 









China offers Kazakhstan security support, opposes 'external forces'


China is willing to increase "law enforcement and security" cooperation with neighbouring Kazakhstan and help oppose interference by "external forces", China's foreign minister said on Monday, after violent protests in the Central Asian country.




www.reuters.com





Unlike other former USSR states, they are untouchable by Russia now. Same goes for the other 'Stans to their south, now geographically separated from Russia.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

Not many info about this, but hoping is true.









BREAKING UPDATE: Two Russian Tu-22M3 bombers reportedly destroyed after UAV shot down over Russia's Shaykovka Air Base in Kaluga Oblast


ACCORDING to LB.ua sources, as a result of a kamikaze drone attack on the Shaykovka Air Base military airfield in the Kaluga region of Russia, two Tu-22M3




euroweeklynews.com






https://censor.net/en/news/3372195/drone_destroyed_two_tu22m3_missile_carriers_at_russian_airfield_shaykovka_mass_media

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## at6 (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I like her and her partying…


I'd like to spend the rest of my life with her.


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 7, 2022)

Analysis: Defeats in Ukraine stoke crisis for Vladimir Putin


President Vladimir Putin is grappling with the gravest domestic crisis of his 23-year rule: an increasingly public quarrel inside the Russian elite over who is to blame for the battlefield defeats in Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 7, 2022)

As to the Nordstream pipeline bombing, it’s not the U.S. 
1). No reason to. We are winning. 
2). I cannot see President Biden unleashing such an environmental catastrophe without any regard. 
It’s Russia. 
1). I believe Putin has been facing his mortality in a way that has been affecting his actions. He’s acting more and more rashly. He had been playing the long game. He did an excellent job of sowing political discord in the West. Lately, he’s playing cards before he has to. Now after so many reversals, his army is exposed as a sham army, the utter corruption of his government laid bare and it’s coming into Moscow’s homes. Putin is showing weakness. I think he believes he has been running out of time to restore the Empire. 
2). Putin displays no regard to human life or ecological harm. 
Happy birthday, Asshole.

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)

Thanks

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## SaparotRob (Oct 7, 2022)

Oh, I prayed no one would twist my last entry. Knew I should have left that out. 
In my defense, DIFFERENT THREAD!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No disagreement. I’m only stating how these dubious sources have become so popular.
> 
> I should have added when they post their sources it usually cones with the obligatory _“I did my research. I watched a video on the internet.”_



Rather than digest and promulgate the opinions of this or that talking head, I prefer to read -- read, not watch -- the hard-news outlets and arrive at my own opinions. Reading forces me to think more about the content; it also gives the journalist(s) the ability to go into depth they may not be able to do with video. And I stick with hard news outlets for the most part because I've looked at their objectivity and find it much more useful.

Also, I'm tired of seeing "entertainment" dressed up as news, but that's another thread for another forum, so I'll leave it at that.

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Rather than digest and promulgate the opinions of this or that talking head, I prefer to read -- read, not watch -- the hard-news outlets and arrive at my own opinions. Reading forces me to think more about the content; it also gives the journalist(s) the ability to go into depth they may not be able to do with video. And I stick with hard news outlets for the most part because I've looked at their objectivity and find it much more useful.
> 
> Also, I'm tired of seeing "entertainment" dressed up as news, but that's another thread for another forum, so I'll leave it at that.



Agreed on both accounts. I like using various news sources, preferably those from different spectrums. Usually the truth is in the middle, and you just have to separate the opinionated spin.

Unfortunately, people almost always gravitate to whoever spins the news to their particular ideology simply because they want to read/watch things they agree with. I think it gives them a sense of belonging to something they perceive as being better, all while patting themselves on the back because they were “right all along.”

The worst thing anyone can do is listen to “opinionated mouth pieces” such as Tucker Carlson, Steve Doocy, Ainsley Earhardt, Brian Kilmeade (Fox & Friends), Steve Cuomo, Don Lemmon, or CNN New Day (not sure who is even on that show anymore) because that is all they are: _Ideologically Slanted Opinions for entertainment purposes_. They are not the news, and are not reporting any truths.

I actually have a friend who literally calls Tucker Carlson the only voice of truth and reason. Needless to say, we don’t see each other often anymore. The last time we spoke he was spewing Tucker’s anti Ukraine, pro Putin slobbering BS. I’m not going to waste my time…

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed on both accounts. I like using various news sources, preferably those from different spectrums. Usually the truth is in the middle, and you just have to separate the opinionated spin.
> 
> Unfortunately, people almost always gravitate to whoever spins the news to their particular ideology simply because they want to read/watch things they agree with. I think it gives them a sense of belonging to something they perceive as being better, all while patting themselves on the back because they were “right all along.”
> 
> The worse thing anyone can do is listen to “opinionated mouth pieces” such as Tucker Carlson, Steve Doocy, Ainsley Earhardt, Brian Kilmeade (Fox & Friends), Steve Cuomo, Don Lemmon, or CNN New Day (not sure who is even on that show anymore) because that is all they are: _Ideologically Slanted Opinions for entertainment purposes_. They are not the news, and are not reporting any truths.



There's so much truth and wisdom here in your post. Cross-check sources. Where they disagree, you can reckon that the facts haven't been really established. Where they do overlap, you're more likely to find the truth of the matter.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 7, 2022)

I miss the days when YouTube was a source for music videos, combat-sim tracks and cat vids.

A while back, a friend sent me a video about the alarming sea level rise (he claims it's risen over three feet in the past 65 years) and I said I'll pass.
He said "oh, so you don't follow science, huh?" and I asked, how was your trip to Hawaii?".
He paused for a moment because of the shift in the convo, but said it was a great time. I asked about his visit to the USS Arizona memorial and he said it was very somber experience.
"So you could actually see the Arizona?" I asked, and he said "of course, why".

I looked him square in the eye and said "because it sank over 70 years ago. If the sea has risen three feet, it would be under water. There's your science, dumbass."

We don't talk much anymore...

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 7, 2022)

Sadly, critical thinking is a dying art

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> This was a press briefing held two days ago.
> 
> It is full of useful information, numbers and such.
> 
> ...



That was an informative read. Thanks for posting it.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There's so much truth and wisdom here in your post. Cross-check sources. Where they disagree, you can reckon that the facts haven't been really established. Where they do overlap, you're more likely to find the truth of the matter.



What I am about to say here is going to sound political, but its really just demonstrating how these “opinion pieces” work. So please bare with me here, and realize the intent is not to be political.

*Reality:* An airliner crashed into the ocean today killing all 230 people on board. Investigators say the pilots reported the loss of both engines 10 minutes before the aircraft crashed.

*How Tucker Reports it:* An airliner crashed into the ocean today killing all 230 people on board. Sources tell me its Obama’s fault because he did not regulate the engine manufacturer back when he was a student in Chicago.

*How Don Lemmon Reports it:* An airliner crashed into the ocean today killing all 230 people on board. Why? Trump. Because.

And unfortunately their cult like “critical thinker followers” lap it up. _“Its true. I saw it on Tucker. Also I heard Joe Rogen talk about it on his podcast! Wake up! Use your brain! Q will set you free!!!!_

*And having said that, I have gone so far off the topic that is really important: Putlers war of aggression on Ukraine. I will now return to that topic and try not to stray again.

My apologies to all.*

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 7, 2022)

But I also must say thank you to everyone. Even when we stray off topic and get into these damn near political discussions we have all remained civil for the most part. Thank you warbird family.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 7, 2022)

And here's Yulia Tymoshenko to help us get back to the topic!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> But I also must say thank you to everyone. Even when we stray off topic and get into these damn near political discussions we have all remained civil for the most part. Thank you warbird family.



I have three goals in visiting this thread:

!) To gather useful scuttlebutt I might not be getting from my news feeds;

2) To provide information to others, from articles I have read, that may (or may not) help inform other members here; and

3) To make sure I do nothing to put this thread in danger of being closed. That's actually pretty hard for me at times like this because I'm a very politically-minded person -- but this thread and the information it provides is much more important than my desire to spout off. I save that for forums which focus on, or at least allow, freewheeling political discourse.

I guess there's also a fourth, to wit, putting in the occasional funny to garner cheap laughs and cheap likes.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And here's Yulia Tymoshenko to help us get back to the topic!
> 
> View attachment 689843



I'm digging the breeding-braid wrapped around her head. And ... uh, never mind.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 7, 2022)

Happy 70th birthday Mr Putin….here, please accept my gift of a tractor!









Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin gets a tractor for his 70th birthday


Gifts for Russia's embattled president include a tractor from Belarusian ally Alexander Lukashenko.



www.bbc.com





I guess irony isn’t a thing in Belarus or Russia?

Just when I thought the stories emerging from Moscow couldn’t get any more bizarre! Check out the piles of melons that were also give as a gift.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Happy 70th birthday Mr Putin….here, please accept my gift of a tractor!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Oh, I bet it's irony, all right. The Russians I've met have a good grasp of both irony and sarcasm.


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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Happy 70th birthday Mr Putin….here, please accept my gift of a tractor!


I NEVER GOT A TRACTOR

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## GTX (Oct 7, 2022)

'Prospect of Armageddon': Biden issues warning over Putin nuclear threats


US President Joe Biden warns the Russian president's threats about using tactical nuclear weapons are serious and the risk is real as his military is 'significantly underperforming'.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 7, 2022)

UN appoints expert to scrutinise Russian human rights violations


The original proposal expressed concerns about "mass forced shutdowns" of independent media, non-governmental organisations and opposition groups in Russia.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 7, 2022)

Today was meant to be a good day for Putin. Instead he’s facing leadership speculation


As Vladimir Putin's disastrous war in Ukraine stretches into an eighth month, observers are openly speculating about who could replace him if his position becomes untenable.




www.abc.net.au

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 7, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> I NEVER GOT A TRACTOR


I would suggest invading a neighboring country to garner sympathy.

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)

Good plan. I'm off to annex Pt. Roberts, Wash. I should be back shortly so have my tractor warmed up. I want a red one.....no....blue

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## GrauGeist (Oct 7, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Good plan. I'm off to annex Pt. Roberts, Wash. I should be back shortly so have my tractor warmed up. I want a red one.....no....blue


Probably be easier to go to Ukraine, sit in a parked Russian tank and wait a few.

They will come...

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)

According to Putlers well laid out plans, all of Ukraine should be annexed by next week. By the time I portage around the Atlantic there will be nothing left for me

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## SaparotRob (Oct 7, 2022)

Astronaut Scott Kelly has annexed Mons Olympus on Mars for himself.

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## fubar57 (Oct 7, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 7, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I would suggest invading a neighboring country to garner sympathy.



In Mother Russia, the tractor gets you.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 7, 2022)

Saudis are helping Russia’s oil revenue. Damn them.









Biden: No Saudi regrets after OPEC+ cuts, won’t rule out Venezuela oil ask


President Biden claimed Thursday that he doesn’t regret his July trip to Saudi Arabia after the Riyadh-led OPEC+ cartel of oil exporters cut production.




nypost.com





What about Keystone?









With a pen stroke, President Joe Biden cancels Keystone XL pipeline project | DW | 21.01.2021


The newly inaugurated US president has issued an executive order to cancel the Canadian pipeline project approved by his predecessor. Joe Biden has said climate change will be a big focus of his presidency.




www.dw.com

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 7, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Happy 70th birthday Mr Putin….here, please accept my gift of a tractor!


Back in the 80s my brother owned a Russian tractor, a Belarus, of course. Like anything Russian, it was simple, klunky, HUGE, hell for stout, and highly unsophisticated. The PTO was geared to the rear axle differential, so no motion, no PTO. Rendered his PTO powered logging winch useless. Upgraded from 6 volt system to 12 volt by adding a second 6 volt battery in series and moving one wire on the voltage regulator to another terminal. Oh, and it was a diesel!

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 7, 2022)

It's dead, Jim.

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## AAIR (Oct 8, 2022)

Now this is interesting and potentially good news. Another smoking accident, but this time on a bridge to Crimea:

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## AAIR (Oct 8, 2022)

Close up video:


Some of the comments make a good point, this damages the train bridge, temporarily stopping heavy supplies, but leaves the road bridge open for the Russians (both civil and military) to get out of Crimea.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 8, 2022)

I think it's just a train ing exercise. My hat and coat were on the train so I'll just go.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 8, 2022)

Shoo shoo, Baby!

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## WARSPITER (Oct 8, 2022)

Man. This thread can go off track so quickly.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 8, 2022)



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## WARSPITER (Oct 8, 2022)

Thank you for that rousing response. You have outdone the lady singing to the conscripts.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 8, 2022)

It's not like the topic has been derailed.

Right?

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## fubar57 (Oct 8, 2022)

We need a groan emoji

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## SaparotRob (Oct 8, 2022)

AAIR said:


> Now this is interesting and potentially good news. Another smoking accident, but this time on a bridge to Crimea:



Nice fire. Screws up tracks and structural steel. Although they probably built it with the best materials that money can buy.


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## hawkeye2an (Oct 8, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Man. This thread can go off track so quickly.


I see what you did there


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## hawkeye2an (Oct 8, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Thank you for that rousing response. You have outdone the lady singing to the conscripts.


Not really saying much there


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

It seems its a train. And it also seems that part of the car highway has collapsed.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 8, 2022)

Every time you think Russia couldn't do more to lose this ..........

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Looks like the bridge is in really bad shape. The casue is unknown, smoking accidents near railways happen ...





Source

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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

Fire and explosion reported at bridge connecting Russia and Crimea


Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled the Kerch bridge in 2018, after Crimea was annexed from Ukraine in 2014, bringing sanctions and a deterioration in ties with the West.




www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Reported videos from the moment of the explosion start to emerge

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

State of the bridge. this seems most recent vid

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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

Ukraine to receive 200 MaxxPro mine-resistant vehicles – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## ThomasP (Oct 8, 2022)

Am I the only one thinking the explosion on the Kerch bridge might have been a car- or truck-bomb?

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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

The fiendish Anglo-Saxons have emerged as early prime suspects

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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

Then again, there is this:

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## Denniss (Oct 8, 2022)

I hope the fuel fire was hot enough to damage the internal structure of the rail section.
That's a slightly delayed birthday present for Putler.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It seems its a train. And it also seems that part of the car highway has collapsed.



Do we think this is an Ukrainian hit? Perhaps sabotage with a fuel truck rather than an unbeknownst long range missile?


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## Denniss (Oct 8, 2022)

Security cam footage.
Hmmm, looks more like the boom originates from a railway fuel car or some kind of an airburst weapon. Maybe they got a kamikaze drone crashing into the train

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## Glider (Oct 8, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Am I the only one thinking the explosion on the Kerch bridge might have been a car- or truck-bomb?


I don't think so, if only because the strike hit two different bridges, rail and road. Also, two road spans have been brought down which is no coincidence.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 8, 2022)

Vast amounts of speculation on cause. 

Leading candidate seems to be a truck bomb, possibly a suicide attack.

Another possibility is a boat bomb.

Third is a Russian ammunition truck spontaneously deciding to "smoke a cigarette".

Then there's a range of other options: ballistic missile, cruise missile, sabotage teams, Jewish space lasers.... 


If it was the Ukrainians, it's a massive benefit- it adds heavily to the logistics burden in the south AND then new main GLOC is well within HIMARS range.


If it was an accident, then it might be one of the biggest own goals in military history.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Vast amounts of speculation on cause.


My guess….

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

Security and Defence Analyst Michael Clarke explains how a key bridge linking Russia to Crimea has been hit by a huge explosion.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Nahh, it was a false flag operation staged by the bridge designers to avoid any liability.
After all the bridge was going to collapse anyway.









Russia’s Crimea Bridge Could Collapse Anytime


Russian President Vladimir Putin has called construction of a bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea a “historic mission.” He should pay better




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

On a serious note, militarily, disabling (even if temporarily) the bridge could signal the start of the rumored Melitopol offensive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On a serious note, militarily, disabling (even if temporarily) the bridge could signal the start of the rumored Melitopol offensive.



Or it could be that the Ukrainians wanted to give the drive on Kherson more support.


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Or it could be that the Ukrainians wanted to give the drive on Kerson more support.


Just hoping its both

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

An analysis on the implications of the Kerch bridge explosion by Trent Telenko








Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App


@TrentTelenko: The Kerch Bridge has been heavily damaged by a large explosion. One of the two road bridge spans is in the water, the second road lane has blast damage and a cistern train of fuel...




threadreaderapp.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 8, 2022)

According to BBC reporting, the road bridge has partially reopened to cars and buses (although every vehicle is being inspected before it is allowed to cross). Trucks are forces to use a nearby ferry to transit into Crimea.

Russia reportedly will have the rail link restored in a few days, perhaps as early as this evening (although it's already evening in Crimea so that seems a tad optimistic to me).

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> According to BBC reporting, the road bridge has partially reopened to cars and buses (although every vehicle is being inspected before it is allowed to cross). Trucks are forces to use a nearby ferry to transit into Crimea.
> 
> Russia reportedly will have the rail link restored in a few days.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Don't panic, You're on the Titanic, The safest ship ever built

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## buffnut453 (Oct 8, 2022)

I'm waiting for the supermarket shelves to be empty of toilet paper...THEN we'll know there's a crisis in Crimea.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 8, 2022)

Ok...I'm feeling a bit smug this morning. 

A while back, I wrote to the BBC that their map keys for the Ukraine war didn't make sense. They had pink areas as Russian occupied, pink striped areas as "Russian advances" and purple areas as ground regained by Ukraine. The pink striped definition worked when Russia was advancing. However, as Ukrainian forces took back territory, the maps often showed "Russian advances" lining up against territory retaken by Ukraine. 

You really can't have both sides advancing at the same time in the same area...at least not for long. So I suggested to the BBC that they change the definition of the striped area to be something like "control of this region is contested." Nothing changed for a while...but then I saw this map this morning. Looks like they listened to my recommendation!








Ok, in reality, my one voice may not have made a blind bit of difference...but I'm going to claim it anyway!

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## SaparotRob (Oct 8, 2022)

Stick it to the Man! Or something.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 8, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Interesting essay describing combats for the village of Dovhenke, showing the difference in tactics between Russians and Ukrainians.









Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App


@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ What is the price of defeat? Few episodes in the Ukraine war illustrate this more vividly than the five-month battle for the village of Dovhenke, an episode which likely cost hundreds of lives but...…




threadreaderapp.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Nahh, it was a false flag operation staged by the bridge designers to avoid any liability.
> After all the bridge was going to collapse anyway.
> 
> 
> ...



In yet another irony in this war, Moscow's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said "the reaction of the Kyiv regime to the destruction of civilian infrastructure shows its terrorist nature." Funny how she never speaks out when Ukrainian civilian infrastructure is attacked by Russian forces.

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## Dimlee (Oct 8, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> In other words, just about all the age appropriate able bodied men remaining in country, and a significant portion of the women?


Of course, not. Just a small portion.


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## Dimlee (Oct 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'm waiting for the supermarket shelves to be empty of toilet paper...THEN we'll know there's a crisis in Crimea.


This boy in Sevastopol agrees with you.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 8, 2022)

An interesting interview I found with Gen (Ret) David Petraeus on Youtube about the situation as it stood roughly ten days ago, after the successful Kharkiv offensive but before the Kherson offensive has picked up its current steam. I think he's got a pretty good analysis going on.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In yet another irony in this war, Moscow's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said "the reaction of the Kyiv regime to the destruction of civilian infrastructure shows its terrorist nature." Funny how she never speaks out when Ukrainian civilian infrastructure is attacked by Russian forces.



Not irony, but hypocrisy.

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## Glider (Oct 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting essay describing combats for the village of Dovhenke, showing the difference in tactics between Russians and Ukrainians.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This quote caught my eye but it's only one of many

16/ The repeated disasters devastated Russian morale. Shayga says that "almost everyone" from his unit refused orders to continue attacking Dovhenke, as did the spetsnaz, airborne troops and Wagner mercenaries. They saw the orders as suicidal.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 8, 2022)

If this report is accurate, it demonstrates a woeful lack of leadership, morale, warrior culture in the Russian military.
What western army would tell their troops "You don't have to fight if you don't want to." ?
I remember some video mocking US military recruiting ads compared to Russian recruiting ads. But here we see an almost utter lack of any kind of military discipline.

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## fubar57 (Oct 8, 2022)

Ukrainian officials reportedly say there have been 'catastrophic' Starlink outages in recent weeks


A coordinator for Starlink donations said SpaceX may have been preventing Russia from using the technology and didn't know the regions had been freed.




www.businessinsider.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 8, 2022)

Another theory about the bridge. Hard to believe, but who knows. I'm not convinced about the "truck theory" either.









Ukraine hit Crimean bridge with missiles, but Russia invents tales about truck – Zhdanov


According to him, the nature of the destruction indicates a synchronized missile strike. Crimean bridge destroyed by Ukrainian missiles – Zhdanov / Planet Labs The Russians lie that the …




ukrainetoday.org

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> ..but then I saw this map this morning.


Looking at the map clearly Russia must hold Kherson city. If that falls, there’s little to stop AFU run to Crimea. So, I don’t expect Kherson city to fall before March 2023.


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## at6 (Oct 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's not like the topic has been derailed.
> 
> Right?


It might heating up some though.

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## at6 (Oct 8, 2022)

Burning bridges sure beats burning barns.

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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

Kerch Bridge attack sparks Russian calls for 'counterterrorism operation'


Ukrainian officials are poking fun at Russia over an explosion on a bridge linking the country to the Crimean Peninsula, with the defence council secretary referencing Vladimir Putin's birthday in a Twitter post showing the burning bridge and a video of Marilyn Monroe singing Happy Birthday Mr...




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 8, 2022)

Ukraine Situation Report: European Vote Calls For Providing Leopard Tanks

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Another theory about the bridge. Hard to believe, but who knows. I'm not convinced about the "truck theory" either.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The videos I have seen shows the initial explosion atop the bridge and not underneath. The same videos reveals no sign of rocket attack, nor do they exclude it.

"I'll take 'Disasters Caused By Smokers' for a True Daily Double, Alex." However they did it, it worked.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine Situation Report: European Vote Calls For Providing Leopard Tanks


How did Germany vote on Leopard 2 transfer? Without Germany onside I don’t think it matters what the EU wants re. Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How did Germany vote on Leopard 2 transfer? Without Germany onside I don’t think it matters what the EU wants re. Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.



Like many arms-suppliers, Germany retains the right of refusal. It's written into the contract, right? America and others do the same, and because you need spare parts, the manufacturing country can actually have you by the short hairs.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Like many arms-suppliers, Germany retains the right of refusal.


Agreed. That’s why I’m asking how Germany voted in this EU decision. I can’t find it.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. That’s why I’m asking how Germany voted in this EU decision. I can’t find it.


Germany didn't vote as a country. The vote was in the european parlament, were members are elected in an EU wide election with a certain number of members to be elected for each country. The votes in the europarlament are usually non binding, specially in foreing affairs were they are more statements of intent that anything else.

The European Council decides on the foreing affairs and is formed by the heads of state or government of the EU countries and the president of the European Commission.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 8, 2022)

In my opinion (for what it's worth), Ukraine would be better off with either the U.S. M1 Abrams tank or the South Korean K2.

Logistics from the U.S. would keep them (the M1) on the cutting edge, too.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 9, 2022)

Amazing footage of the explosion on the Kerch Bridge, for those who haven't seen it:

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## WARSPITER (Oct 9, 2022)

Instead of 'railing' against the West perhaps Putin would be best employed trying to get a 'bridging' loan.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 9, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Instead of 'railing' against the West perhaps Putin would be best employed trying to get a 'bridging' loan.

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## Glider (Oct 9, 2022)

Understandably we have been looking at the impact on Russia and the Ukraine from a military perspective. However, there are other hugely negative impacts on Russia which are not as obvious.

The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia



Putin may have wanted to restore the Russian Empire, but his power over former Soviet states is waning as his invasion of Ukraine flounders

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## WARSPITER (Oct 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> Understandably we have been looking at the impact on Russia and the Ukraine from a military perspective. However, there are other hugely negative impacts on Russia which are not as obvious.
> 
> The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia
> 
> ...


Yes. Putin is really going to have trouble building new diplomatic 'bridges'.

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## Dimlee (Oct 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Another theory about the bridge. Hard to believe, but who knows. I'm not convinced about the "truck theory" either.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The truck theory is not very convincing if we look at the pictures/videos of the results. I could understand the fire of rail tanks but not the collapse of *two* bridge spans. And suicidal missions are not the style of Ukrainian services.

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## Dimlee (Oct 9, 2022)

Deepfake is not a joke, indeed.
Russian "pranksters" (more likely, FSB or GRU operatives) tried to arrange a video call with the Turkish Baykar Defence's CEO, pretending to be the Ukrainian Prime Minister. Ukrainian GUR (military intelligence) got involved and played the role of CEO's assistant.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 9, 2022)

Most plausible theory so far, it was an accident !

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## ThomasP (Oct 9, 2022)

I can not say for sure that it was a truck bomb, but . . .

The spans where the blast occurred are deck type construction (ie the spans are self supporting, with the ends resting on piers).

A semi-trailer could easily hold 10-15 and maybe 20 tons of explosives.

A blast of that size in the middle of a span could cause a downward movement exceeding what the structure is designed to withstand. Even if it withstood the downward movement it is possible it would not not survive the rebounding upward movement. The blast might also cause a whipping movement in the nearby spans, possibly with enough amplitude to cause unseating and/or failure of the deck structure and/or connectors to adjacent spans/decks. Bridges are designed to resist come up-down and side-side movement, whether due to wind, wave, or seismic forces, but there is a limit.

From the video it appears as if the explosion originated on the vehicle deck, approximately where the truck was. In the images it appears as if the blast took place mid-span, possibly destroying the immediate support structure under the span. The span then slid partially off the nearest(?) pier, the movement causing stresses farther away resulting in failure of the connectors at the end of one adjacent span, and at the end of a span one span removed from the first.






With modern computer modeling of stresses in structures (whether of steel, reinforced concrete, a combination thereof, or a host of other materials/combinations) it would not be too difficult for someone with knowledge of such structures to predict where the blast should be located. If the planners have specific knowledge of the structure it could be relatively easy.

Also, the shockwave from a blast of that size could easily breach nearby tanker cars. In railway disasters involving tanker cars with explosive content there is often a chain reaction where the adjacent cars in the string, or nearby cars on other rails such as in railroad yards, are breached by the explosion of other tanker cars.

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## ThomasP (Oct 9, 2022)

Or, maybe . . .

It was an unmarked Russian AF truck filled with explosives, and there was another cigarette induced thermal event.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Also, the shockwave from a blast of that size could easily breach nearby tanker cars. In railway disasters involving tanker cars with explosive content there is often a chain reaction where the adjacent cars in the string, or nearby cars on other rails such as in railroad yards, are breached by the explosion of other tanker cars.



It'll be flinging a lot of shrapnel too, which would easily penetrate the tank cars depending on what is doing the flying.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia


Much how Russia’s humiliating defeat against Japan in 1905 wrecked the former’s reputation as a global power.









Effects of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 | World History






worldhistory.us





_Russia, led by the weak Tsar Nicholas II, needed a war to instill patriotic feelings among an increasingly restless and revolutionary-minded population. The millions of peasants would follow the Tsar's summons as if it were an order from God, but the same was not true of the more literate urban populations. The legacy of Russian defeat, however, was swiftly turned into internal revolution in what some historians regard as the first phase of the Russian Revolutionary movement that eventually ended Romanov rule in March 1917._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

_KYIV, Oct 9 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack early on Sunday struck an apartment block and other residential buildings in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 13 people and wounding 87 others, including 10 children, Ukrainian officials said.

The pre-dawn fusillade in Zaporizhzhia on Sunday was the second of its kind against the city in three days.

Russian aircraft launched at least 12 missiles, partially destroying a nine-storey apartment block, levelling five other residential buildings and damaging many more, Oleksandr Starukh, governor of the Zaporizhzhia region, said on state-run television.

At least 13 people died and 87 others were wounded, 60 of whom were hospitalized, regional officials said. The wounded included 10 children._









Russia missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia kill 13


Rail and some road traffic meanwhile resumed after a blast damaged a bridge linking Russia to Crimea that is a key supply route to Moscow's forces battling in southern Ukraine and a symbol of its annexation of the peninsula.




www.reuters.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 9, 2022)

Guess we where all expecting this (this and the toiled paper  )

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## GrauGeist (Oct 9, 2022)

And guess what?

The Kerch Straight Ferry service was shut down two years ago! 









Kerch Strait ferry line - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, Oct 9 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack early on Sunday struck an apartment block and other residential buildings in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, _


The West needs to provide Ukraine with Iron Dome, Patriots, or other anti-missile systems. Clearly these missile bombardments are some of Russia’s only means to strike back.






Fearing of Russia… Israel stops transferring the Iron Dome anti-missile system to Ukraine







syrializm.net

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## Dimlee (Oct 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Much how Russia’s humiliating defeat against Japan in 1905 wrecked the former’s reputation as a global power.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What a coincidence. I'm reading the memoirs of Alexandre Benois now.
About the beginning of the Japanese-Russian war:
_"The new year 1904 began fortissimo - with a thunder of sudden war with the Japanese...
almost everyone treated it with surprising frivolity - as some kind of trifling adventure, from which Russia cannot but emerge victorious. Think. These impudent Japanese <...> suddenly climbed onto such a colossus as the vast Russian state with its more than one hundred million people. Even then, I, and many others, had a semblance of pity for these "careless madmen." After all, they will be beaten on two counts, because there will be nothing left of them, and if the war spreads to them on the islands, then farewell to all their wonderful art, all their charming culture, which my friends and I have especially grown fond of in recent years." _(Google Translate).
And then he wrote that after the defeats, Russian society began to look for explanations in the conspiracy theories.
Very similar to what we observe today.
I like this picture, it reminds me of the mood of the public in Russian Federation in the past February.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 9, 2022)



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## Dimlee (Oct 9, 2022)

Good article about HIMARS.
_"Within minutes, the two Himars rumbled out from cover under an apricot grove toward the launch spot in a nearby sunflower field. Thirty seconds after arriving, they fired seven missiles in quick succession. Before the projectiles hit their targets, the trucks were returning to base camp."
""If I enter the coordinates of this hole," said Lt. Koval, standing by a molehill the size of a shoebox, "it will hit this hole.""_








Himars Transform the Battle for Ukraine—and Modern Warfare


The mobile, high-precision U.S. rocket system is thwarting Russia’s invasion as it revolutionizes military strategy.




www.wsj.com

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## Glider (Oct 9, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Guess we where all expecting this (this and the toiled paper  )



Normal day on the M25

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 9, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Good article about HIMARS.
> _"Within minutes, the two Himars rumbled out from cover under an apricot grove toward the launch spot in a nearby sunflower field. Thirty seconds after arriving, they fired seven missiles in quick succession. Before the projectiles hit their targets, the trucks were returning to base camp."
> ""If I enter the coordinates of this hole," said Lt. Koval, standing by a molehill the size of a shoebox, "it will hit this hole.""_
> 
> ...


Same article passed the pay wall. archive.ph

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## GrauGeist (Oct 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The West needs to provide Ukraine with Iron Dome, Patriots, or other anti-missile systems. Clearly these missile bombardments are some of Russia’s only means to strike back.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ukraine has NASAMS, but even if they had Patriots, Iron Dome or other systems, it would require a substantial amount of them, as they would need to cover a large area.

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## Glider (Oct 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Same article passed the pay wall. archive.ph


Thanks for that, much appreciated

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## SaparotRob (Oct 9, 2022)

Seeing as how Russia has raised the specter of nuclear war, caused world wide famine, caused economic upheaval, committed war crimes and atrocities, Russia is causing a great deal of insecurity through out the world. Russia being on the Security Council seems a bit of an oxymoron.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 9, 2022)

Glider said:


> Thanks for that, much appreciated


archive.ph is the best. Just paste in the url of any article and you’re all set.

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## fubar57 (Oct 9, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Amazing footage of the explosion on the Kerch Bridge, for those who haven't seen it:

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## GTX (Oct 9, 2022)

Russian strike jet crashes near Ukrainian border – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Oct 9, 2022)

Ukrainian Soldiers show off captured Russian anti-aircraft systems – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukrainian Soldiers show off captured Russian anti-aircraft systems – Defence Blog
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Beside the vast numbers of hardware (and men) losed by Rusia, I think that the inteligence harvest of captured equipment will be a major handicap for the rebuilding of the russian forces 8n the future.

How could you overcome the fact that examples of your ultimate hardware are on your enemies hands?

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## GTX (Oct 9, 2022)

Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of 'terrorism' over Crimea-Russia bridge blast


The Russian president says the explosion was an "act of terrorism" and the head of Russia's Investigative Committee says other countries were involved.




www.abc.net.au

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## fubar57 (Oct 9, 2022)

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday accused Ukraine of orchestrating the powerful blast that damaged a key bridge linking Russia and Crimea the day before, describing the explosion as an "act of terrorism"."

Strange words from a man who sends rockets against civilian apartments

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## buffnut453 (Oct 9, 2022)

Too soon?

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## fubar57 (Oct 9, 2022)

You'll need the Putin Lego to go with it

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## MiTasol (Oct 9, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday accused Ukraine of orchestrating the powerful blast that damaged a key bridge linking Russia and Crimea the day before, describing the explosion as an "act of terrorism"."
> 
> Strange words from a man who sends rockets against civilian apartments



Nah

Just normal politician. Do as I say not as I do

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of 'terrorism' over Crimea-Russia bridge blast
> 
> 
> The Russian president says the explosion was an "act of terrorism" and the head of Russia's Investigative Committee says other countries were involved.
> ...



From your article:

_"There is no doubt. This is an act of terrorism aimed at destroying critically important civilian infrastructure," Mr Putin said in a video on the Kremlin's Telegram channel._

Talk to the mirror, bud. Classic bully, complaining about punches in response to those which he's landed himself. Here's a protip, Vlad: you'll find "sympathy" in any English dictionary between "shit" and "syphillis".

Until then, with a hat-tip to our prime punster: 

 Crimea_River

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## MiTasol (Oct 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ok...I'm feeling a bit smug this morning.
> 
> A while back, I wrote to the BBC that their map keys for the Ukraine war didn't make sense. They had pink areas as Russian occupied, pink striped areas as "Russian advances" and purple areas as ground regained by Ukraine. The pink striped definition worked when Russia was advancing. However, as Ukrainian forces took back territory, the maps often showed "Russian advances" lining up against territory retaken by Ukraine.
> 
> ...



They are both advancing towards the Kersch bridge


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## MiTasol (Oct 9, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Sadly, critical thinking is a dying art



I recommend a subscription to This is True – Thought-Provoking Entertainment Online Since 1994 as an antidote

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## rednev (Oct 9, 2022)

Mr Bastrykin said Ukrainian special services and citizens of Russia and other countries took part in the act.

"We have already established the route of the truck" that Russian authorities have said set off a bomb and explosion on the bridge, he said.

Mr Bastrykin said the truck had been to Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia, Krasnodar (a region in southern Russia) and other places.


Russian involvement ? Vlad wont be happy


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

Trying to implicate NATO in this is probably not a good idea for the Russians. But if they've got a bone to pick, they can always go to the Security Council and see how that pans out.



Spoiler



It's not a lot of good.



Vetoes cut both ways.

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## MiTasol (Oct 9, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Just a side thought as to how these dubious sources become popular. I’m also *NOT* saying this about Bill or anyone else here.
> 
> The problem is that people gravitate to sources that tell them what their preconceived notions, opinions, and beliefs tell them. They don’t want to know the truth or fact (or care about truth or fact) Everything they don’t want to hear is “fake news” regardless of its credibility or not. _I don’t like that. It goes against what I am told to believe. It’s fake. Or, they said something bad about me (even if its true. Its fake news_
> 
> ...



Der Alder is not the first to say this and will not be the last but when will the message sink in. Party can equally apply to belief system - be it your nations superiority or your religion

*Written in 1753 and still true*






Two things:

1) Not much has changed in the world, even in politics.

2) There were some pretty brilliant people Back In The Day. Wish we had some of them in the modern era!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 9, 2022)

So according to the Kremlin, the Kerch blast was an act of terrorism.

Let me guess, it's the Azov mother-daughter team again?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So according to the Kremlin, the Kerch blast was an act of terrorism.
> 
> Let me guess, it's the Azov mother-daughter team again?



Typical Kremlin:

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## WARSPITER (Oct 9, 2022)

Putin just doesn't know how to play his cards.

Perhaps he should retire and take up 'Bridge' or maybe 'Pontoon'.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 9, 2022)

He should take up poker and fold. He's in a no-win situation.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 9, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> You'll need the Putin Lego to go with it
> 
> View attachment 690069​


It comes with the bear?

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## WARSPITER (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> It comes with the bear?
> 
> View attachment 690259


"You see morons. This is all you need to cross a river. Now cross over and get on with making me into a geopolitical genius."

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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> It comes with the bear?
> 
> View attachment 690259


It came with a horse and military genius mask

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## Glider (Oct 10, 2022)

Going back to the French and their lack (relatively speaking) of support for the Ukraine in a material sense, there is another example which I find more baffling.

I think we are all aware that currently a training program is underway in the UK to give thousands of recruits into the Ukraine Army, training so they at least have a fighting chance when they enter combat. Recently a European directive is going to expand that in other countries and they are working out which areas are going to concentrate on certain specialities, such as Artillery, AA, armour, Combat engineering and so on.

In today's edition of the Times it is reported, and I find inexcusable, is that the French are refusing to take part. Countries from all around the world are participating from Canada to Australia and a host of European nations, but not the French. 

I think that says it all. No one is asking them to give equipment, just time for the training and they are declining.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

I found this to be another really interesting read. In another example of poor fieldcraft by the Russians, Ukrainian UAV operators are locating Russian positions due to the amount of trash the Russians leave lying around. That just blows my mind. It’s the tactical equivalent of walking around with a piece of paper stuck on your back that reads “Kick Here” with an arrow pointing at your backside. I always thought the Boy Scout concept of “leave no trace” was a sound way to prevent detection. Clearly the Russians don’t believe in that sort of thing.

The suffering of the locals is truly heartbreaking. I hope, in among all the military supplies, the West can help these people survive the coming winter. Perhaps a good opportunity for the UN to step in and provide humanitarian aid?









Ukraine war: Liberating towns is a shot in the arm for Ukrainian troops


The BBC's defence correspondent meets the people of a retaken town - and the soldiers who freed it.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

A well disciplined Army even field-strips their smokes.

As far as the French goes, I am at a loss. They claim to be a first-world military power, but they act like assholes unless the situation is to their benefit.

I suppose that being the furthest from the Soviet Union Russia makes them feel untouchable...

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## MiTasol (Oct 10, 2022)

Hopefully the Ukrainians will start a program to totally eliminate Russian rail transport now. 

Given the Ukrainian ability to modify civil drones I am surprised they are not already attaching limpit mines to tanker cars on the trains in locations where they must travel slow and then detonating them inside the railyards and stations or when crossing bridges or other targets where a fuel fed fire will destroy the train, its goods and the ability of the orcs to transport anything towards the battle zones. The fires may even provide some crispy orcs for the local wildlife to feed on.

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> Going back to the French and their lack (relatively speaking) of support for the Ukraine in a material sense, there is another example which I find more baffling.
> 
> I think we are all aware that currently a training program is underway in the UK to give thousands of recruits into the Ukraine Army, training so they at least have a fighting chance when they enter combat. Recently a European directive is going to expand that in other countries and they are working out which areas are going to concentrate on certain specialities, such as Artillery, AA, armour, Combat engineering and so on.
> 
> ...


Could you plse give a link to that article.


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## MiTasol (Oct 10, 2022)

Maybe it is time to boycott French wines and produce? 

Disclaimer - I doubt I have bought anything French for 20 years and I suspect many others are the same. I have bought some "French" cookware but the company is Chinese owned and the pans made in China so I do not consider it French.

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## ThomasP (Oct 10, 2022)

Interesting things going-on in the background re oil and gas.

"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/08/norway-gas-prices-supply-europe/"

"OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted"

"France working on contingency plans as energy crisis looms"

"Gas companies working 'urgently' to expand France-Spain pipeline"

"French Nuclear Power Crisis Frustrates Europe’s Push to Quit Russian Energy"

"Smart grids and meters"

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The West needs to provide Ukraine with Iron Dome, Patriots, or other anti-missile systems.


Going back to my earlier comment, Zelenskyy says this morning that 38 incoming missiles were intercepted. So, anti-missile systems must be in place. A good start.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> It comes with the bear?
> 
> View attachment 690259



Well...kindda. That image shows the original boxing which dates from January 2022 and came complete with an aggressive, fearsome bear. More recent boxings have different bears that broadly align with the COVID Isolation Bears.







March 2022 saw the Berenstain Bears issue with all Russia together and looking forward to a rapid victory.

The April 2022 boxing had Pooh Bear without pants to reflect the lack of logistical underpinnings behind the Russian invasion, leading to the withdrawal from Kyiv.

The Yogi boxing came out in August 2022 as Russia made opportunistic land-grabs in the east but was denuded of significant combat-capable forces.

The latest release is the Charmin version, that became available this week, to reflect the fact that the Emperor now has no clothes whatsoever, and Crimea is becoming obsessed with toilet paper.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

On a much more serious note, there have been widespread missile attacks against Ukrainian-held territory today:






There are reports of missiles hitting pedestrian commuter bridges and kids' playgrounds. Civilian infrastructure appears to have been heavily targeted. Looks like Putin is trying to pay back the Kerch Bridge debacle.

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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> There are reports of missiles hitting pedestrian commuter bridges and kids' playgrounds. Civilian infrastructure appears to have been heavily targeted. Looks like Putin is trying to pay back the Kerch Bridge debacle.


Take out the Jungle Gyms. That’ll learn them pesky Ukrainians

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

The Fuhrer is having a tantrum - a professional military, especially one that has a supply issue, would use those resources on enemy concentrations to better slow their advances.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Fuhrer is having a tantrum - a professional military, especially one that has a supply issue, would use those resources on enemy concentrations to better slow their advances.



Entirely agree. The BBC is reporting further Ukrainian gains in Kherson:
_
Ukrainian troops have continued to advance after breaking through Russia's defences on the west bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson.

They have retaken the village of Dudchany and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says Ukrainian sources report that Russian occupation authorities are moving their families from the Kherson region to Crimea.

Ukrainian troops have been attacking bridges, ferries and pontoons in recent weeks, attempting to make Russian positions on the west side of the river unsustainable, and thereby force a withdrawal._


Looking at the map, the liberation of Dudchany is a significant step forward for Ukrainian forces. If those areas under "limited Russian military control" fold, then the city of Kherson will probably fall pretty quickly....and it can't happen quickly enough for me!

_



_

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 10, 2022)

The Kerch bridge still stands, and traffic continues to cross. Presumably the rail bridge will return to operation any day now. Will Ukraine it it again?


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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

Knowing nothing about Ukraine resources and not wanting to over-stretch what they have, do they have the capabilities to launch an amphibious assault?

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

And interesting read on the Kerch Bridge explosion:









Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion?


Russia has blamed a truck bomb - but examination of the footage seems to contradict that.



www.bbc.co.uk

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

Now I understand...Russia didn't attack civilian Ukrainian targets. Rather, it was the fault of Ukrainian missile defences that caused civilian targets to be hit. Once again, how DARE those dastardly Ukrainians have the temerity to defend themselves.
_
A Russian MP and state television presenter has claimed Russia did not target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, following an apparent ramp up in attacks across the country, including in the capital Kyiv today.

"Our military is not attacking, is not shelling cities and civilian infrastructure. All our missiles was targeted [at] energy infrastructure, communication centres and military headquarters," Evgeny Popov told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme.

He blamed Ukrainian anti-missile systems for strikes on civilian targets, including a children's playground.

"If you see some missiles and blows on children grounds, it was a result of the work of anti-missile system, Ukrainian system," he said._


We are definitely in "1984" Ministry of Truth territory.

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## Token (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Beside the vast numbers of hardware (and men) losed by Rusia, I think that the inteligence harvest of captured equipment will be a major handicap for the rebuilding of the russian forces 8n the future.
> 
> How could you overcome the fact that examples of your ultimate hardware are on your enemies hands?



The audio in that video identifies the system as the 9K331M, that is the Tor-M1. This was introduced in 1991. While certainly a very good system, and undoubtedly continually updated, it is not an "ultimate hardware", and people have been studying it a long time.

Yes, I am sure there has been some good intel gleaned in this conflict, probably enough to keep certain alphabet agencies busy for years, however I have not seen many examples of really new systems being captured. I don't think I have seen OSINT images of anything like an S-350/400/500 being captured (unless I missed them, quite possible). There have been a few interesting captured things showing up in online images, like the R381T Taran-M system and the 1L269 Krasukha-2 systems, but I suspect both of those had been accessed before (for example, the Taran goes back to the Cold War, and I believe Libya had / has the Krasukha-2). And some sources made a lot of noise about the Ka-52 shoot downs (what is it 6 or 7 now in Ukraine?), but it is important to remember that has been in production for 14 years, I don't know if any of those were updated to Ka-52M specs or not.

T!


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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _"........All our missiles was targeted [at] energy infrastructure, communication centres and military headquarters,......"_



Ukraine communication centre in Putler's eyes

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

Germany to send IRIS-T SAMs to Ukraine:

*Germany to send Ukraine much wanted air defence systems*
_Chris Partridge
BBC News
In Germany, officials say they're planning to send Ukraine new air defence systems.
Known as IRIS-T SLMs, they're used to "protect the population, important buildings, objects as well as ground troops against attacks from the air", according to Diehl BGT Defence, their manufacturer.
This is exactly the sort of system Ukraine has been asking for since the beginning of this conflict.
The system uses GPS and INS navigation, and receives frequent target positional data from its base station, guiding it towards the threat.
It also has an infra-red seeker as an additional feature and is effective against helicopters, aircraft, cruise missiles, air-to-surface weapons and anti-ship weapons. Crucial to all this is how many will be delivered - and when. It's all part of the gradual Westernisation of Ukraine's armed forces, following Russia's invasion in February.
Currently, Ukraine has Soviet-era surface-to-air (SAM) systems, comprising S-300 for long-range and Buk-M1 SAMs for shorter range. The German system would be a significant upgrade.
The US has provided the greatest amount of weaponry so far - totalling more than $17bn (£15bn), while the UK has supplied the country with the Starstreak anti-aircraft missile system, and other systems, as part of an assistance package worth £2.3bn._

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

Token said:


> I have not seen many examples of really new systems being captured











Pride of Russian army fell into hands of Ukrainian Soldiers


Pride of the Russian Armed Forces, a fully intact example of Russia’s T-90M tank has been captured by Ukrainian Soldiers in the Kharkiv region. Pictures of the abandoned Russian T-90M tank began circulating on social media last week. Multiple photos of the exterior and interior of the secret...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

Ukrainians injured and left to clean up after devastating Russian attacks


The civilian population of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities is reeling after being targeted by Russian missile strikes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says were deliberately timed to kill people.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

'There will be others': Russia issues warning after series of deadly attacks on Ukraine cities


Several explosions rock the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and the cities of Lviv, Ternopil and Dnipro.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

A blaze erupted on the Kerch Bridge. Who was responsible, what's the fallout, and what does Putin think?


The Kerch Bridge has exploded. Who was responsible? What's the fallout? And what does Putin think? Here's all your questions, explained.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

Belarus's Lukashenko warns Ukraine, deploys troops with Russia


Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Monday he had ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near Ukraine in response to what he said was a clear threat to Belarus from Kyiv and its backers in the West.




www.reuters.com

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## Token (Oct 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Pride of Russian army fell into hands of Ukrainian Soldiers
> 
> 
> Pride of the Russian Armed Forces, a fully intact example of Russia’s T-90M tank has been captured by Ukrainian Soldiers in the Kharkiv region. Pictures of the abandoned Russian T-90M tank began circulating on social media last week. Multiple photos of the exterior and interior of the secret...
> ...



And the T-90M is one of the reasons I said "I have not seen many examples of really new systems being captured" vs "I have not seen *any*".

T!


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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

Russia has ordered Belarus to order troops to deploy


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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

Russia pushing for Belarus to enter war - Ukraine intel


Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said in a statement that they are seeing measures that are being taken by Russia to try and convince Belarus to join the war.




www.jpost.com

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## Glider (Oct 10, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Could you plse give a link to that article.


I am afraid not. However, some of the key points in the article are as follows:-

Two operational headquarters are being set up one in Poland and one in Germany and will be co ordinated with the programmes currently being run by the UK. To get these formally set up is supposed to take 2 years but the initial training can start quickly once the politico's sign it off on the 17th October

The total numbers being targeted are 25,000 including the 10,000 being trained in the UK. The UK effort includes Dane's, Dutch, Finns, Lithuanians and Swedish personnel.

Poland will focus on Air Defence, Artillery, cyber, chemical, biological and nuclear defence. Germany will concentrate on mine clearance and tactical training on a larger scale than those in the UK and Poland, with combat simulation facilities.

Germany originally blocked the setting up of this type of training in Poland but has now altered its view and are getting involved in a serious degree

To date the UK have already trained 22,000 troops and another 10,000 will have been trained by the end of the year, with the help of the Dutch, Baltic and Nordic countries. 

During the summer the French ruled out any involvement in large scale training and it is not clear what role the French will play in the new mission.

This still falls short of what the Ukraine have asked for in the training which is for up to nine brigades totalling approx. 45,000 people.

A small but interesting point. When the soldiers are finished training in the UK they go back to Ukraine fully equipped with everything they need, Helmets, body armour, winter clothing, sleeping bags, backpacks, etc, everything, apart from the infantry weapons, which are left behind to train the next set of soldiers. Such is the pressure to get things moving, video's show some of the Ukraine infantry using SA80's during training, due to a shortage of AK's, but I have no doubt these get left behind when they finish. 
I do sometimes wonder what they think of the SA80 when they have to go back to the AK47

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 10, 2022)

Token said:


> The audio in that video identifies the system as the 9K331M, that is the Tor-M1. This was introduced in 1991. While certainly a very good system, and undoubtedly continually updated, it is not an "ultimate hardware", and people have been studying it a long time.
> 
> Yes, I am sure there has been some good intel gleaned in this conflict, probably enough to keep certain alphabet agencies busy for years, however I have not seen many examples of really new systems being captured. I don't think I have seen OSINT images of anything like an S-350/400/500 being captured (unless I missed them, quite possible). There have been a few interesting captured things showing up in online images, like the R381T Taran-M system and the 1L269 Krasukha-2 systems, but I suspect both of those had been accessed before (for example, the Taran goes back to the Cold War, and I believe Libya had / has the Krasukha-2). And some sources made a lot of noise about the Ka-52 shoot downs (what is it 6 or 7 now in Ukraine?), but it is important to remember that has been in production for 14 years, I don't know if any of those were updated to Ka-52M specs or not.
> 
> T!




 GrauGeist
shared a T-90 but there are other examples:









Ukraine Just Captured Another Rare Russian Electronic Warfare Vehicle


The vehicle from the Taran-M signals intelligence, or SIGINT, system was captured after the rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.




www.thedrive.com













One Of Russia’s Newest Air Defense Systems Has Been Captured In Ukraine


Ukrainian and foreign intelligence agencies could glean much from captured Russian Barnaul-T air defense radar and command post vehicles.




www.thedrive.com

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Now I understand...Russia didn't attack civilian Ukrainian targets. Rather, it was the fault of Ukrainian missile defences that caused civilian targets to be hit. Once again, how DARE those dastardly Ukrainians have the temerity to defend themselves.
> 
> _A Russian MP and state television presenter has claimed Russia did not target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, following an apparent ramp up in attacks across the country, including in the capital Kyiv today.
> 
> ...


This is an entirely plausible argument. 
So is, "Look, we're just really bad shots."
Colatteral damage is an unfortunate reality of war.


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## WARSPITER (Oct 10, 2022)

A full report has been compiled for Putin regarding the Kerch incident but he has been so busy they had
to send him the 'abridged' version.

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## at6 (Oct 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Kerch bridge still stands, and traffic continues to cross. Presumably the rail bridge will return to operation any day now. Will Ukraine it it again?


I hope that is hit again and destroyed. Hopefully it will be jam packed with fleeing Orcs.


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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

Putin's revenge is playing out on the streets of Kyiv — but there is a fatal flaw at the heart of his strategy


Throughout the war, Vladimir Putin has constantly failed to align his political objectives for Ukraine with the military means required to achieve them. Now he's finding out how his mistakes will haunt Russia, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> GrauGeist
> shared a T-90 but there are other examples:
> 
> 
> ...


The Ukraine also recovered an AEW system from a downed Su-30SM last month, too.









Ukraine has allegedly captured one of Russia's most advanced aerial electronic warfare pods


Russia has lost multiple advanced systems in this conflict to Ukraine which will provide insights into how its technology works




interestingengineering.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine also recovered an AEW system from a downed Su-30SM last month, too.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Also don't forget about unexploded Kinzhal ASM.

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## GTX (Oct 10, 2022)

Russian troops to mass in Belarus as Lukashenko claims Ukraine is preparing to attack


Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies, claims Ukraine had been preparing to attack Belarus and threatens a response.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Oct 10, 2022)

Will Belorussia move against Ukraine?
If Belorussia is ordered to invade, will their army 
obey? Will that army turn on Lukashenko or has it already been co-opted by Russia? Are the Russian troops in Belorussia there for the fourth front or are they there to coerce Lukashenko’s troops? Will the populace stand for it? 
If Belorussia turns out Lukashenko, will Russian troops move on the capitol?
These and other questions are open for discussion. As always, no wagering.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 10, 2022)

I thought this reporting and analysis was pretty insightful (BBC, again...sorry!). First off, the initial report. Note Lukashenko's comment about the number of Russians that will be joining this combined task force:

_Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has said Belarus and Russia will deploy a joint military task force in response to what he called an aggravation of tension on the country's western borders, Belarusian media are reporting.
"Do not count on a large number of troops of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. But it will be more than 1,000 people," the website Zerkalo quoted Lukashenko as saying.
Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said the two countries started pulling forces together two days ago, apparently after the explosion on Russia's bridge to Crimea, state news agency Belta reported.
But he does not say where the troops will be deployed.
Lukashenko also claimed that Ukraine was preparing an attack on his country's territory.
"I've said already that today Ukraine is not just discussing but planning strikes on the territory of Belarus," Belta quoted Lukashenko as saying.
"My answer was simple: 'Tell the Ukrainian president and other madmen that the Crimea bridge will seem like a walk in the park if they touch even a metre of our territory with their dirty hands.'"_


The Belarus Defence Minister has piled on, again affirming that Belarus doesn't want to go to war. The tone is very much "leave us alone and we'll leave you alone."

_Belarusian Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin has said his country doesn't want to wage war on Ukraine or other neighbouring countries - but warned against provocations, according to Belarusian media.
Khrenin said Belarus - a strong ally of Russia - was concerned by suggestions that its army might attack Ukraine.
"The only thing we can say is this: do not provoke us, we are not going to wage war on you. We do not want to fight either Lithuanians or Poles or, especially, Ukrainians," Khrenin said, according to the Zerkalo website.
He also warned the West against "acts of provocation", adding "you do not want a war with us, nor do we with you".
As we reported earlier, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said today that Russia and Belarus would deploy a joint military task force - though he didn't say where they would be deployed.
He also accused Ukraine of planning strikes on Belarus, according to comments reported by state media.
And the AFP news agency is reporting that he said Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine were training Belarusian "radical militants" to carry out "sabotage, terrorist attacks and to organise a military mutiny".
Poland, which shares a border with Belarus, has advised its citizens to leave the country, according to Reuters._


The BBC's analysis is that Lukashenko does NOT want to get directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine, and that today's statements are more posturing to keep Vlad on-side than any true change in direction for Belarus. Lukashenko isn't popular at home and he knows it. If he's going to keep his grip on power, he can't afford to be seen by his own people as merely a puppet of Moscow:

_Alexander Lukashenko - the leader of Belarus - is under pressure to show solidarity with Vladimir Putin in this war, especially as Russia's international isolation increases.
Belarusian territory, which lies to the north of Ukraine, has been key to the invasion from the start.
Russian tanks rolled across the Belarusian border on the way to Kyiv at the beginning of the conflict, and Belarus is still a launchpad for Russian missiles.
But Lukashenko's watchword is "stability" and he's always pledged not to involve his country's soldiers directly in the fighting - not to get "dragged into" this war.
He knows there's no appetite for that at home, and this is the president who faced unprecedented, giant street protests two years ago against his highly controversial re-election.
He's imprisoned hundreds of his critics and thousands more have fled the country. He survived as leader in large part because of Vladimir Putin's overt support.
Today's talk of forming a "joint task force" with Russia looks more like gesturing than a switch to direct involvement. But Lukashenko is walking a political tightrope. Belarus is one to watch._


All that said, the comment "Belarus is one to watch" is absolutely correct and aligns with 

 SaparotRob
's comments. How will Putin respond if Lukashenko refuses to kiss Vlad's ring? Will Putin take action against Belarus which could make for an interesting agglomeration of anti-Russian allies in eastern Europe. If Lukashenko does kowtow to Moscow, will the Belarus armed forces obey? Definitely one to watch!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 10, 2022)

Putin needs both bodies to swell his dwindling force and a second front to take the pressure of his collapsing forces in the east. Lukashanko can provide both.

It's interesting that all of a sudden, Belarus is "being threatened", as if Ukraine gave a rat's ass about them in the first place but, all this comes after the meeting between Putin and Lukashanko in St. Petersburg over the weekend.

So we know for a fact the Der Fuhrer is leaning on his puppet.

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## Token (Oct 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> GrauGeist
> shared a T-90 but there are other examples:
> 
> 
> ...



I take it you did not read my post but just responded to it? The EW vehicle you link to is specifically the Taran-M I mentioned in my own post, and it is far from new, regardless of what headlines might claim. There is no doubt the Barnual-T is new'ish (first shown in around 2011'ish, I think IOCed 2017 or so), and nice to get ahold of, but it has been offered for export sale for a few years now.

Again, I did not say there were no new things being captured, I said "not many". The vast majority of things shown on social media are things that have been in use 15 years or more.

T!

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## swampyankee (Oct 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Putin needs both bodies to swell his dwindling force and a second front to take the pressure of his collapsing forces in the east. Lukashanko can provide both.
> 
> It's interesting that all of a sudden, Belarus is "being threatened", as if Ukraine gave a rat's ass about them in the first place but, all this comes after the meeting between Putin and Lukashanko in St. Petersburg over the weekend.
> 
> So we know for a fact the Der Fuhrer is leaning on his puppet.



I'm sure Lukashanko is being threatened, just not by NATO or Ukraine.

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## Glider (Oct 10, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> I'm sure Lukashanko is being threatened, just not by NATO or Ukraine.


But also by his own people who almost overthrew him before Russia helped him, and by Russia who now want him to help them.

I strongly suspect he will eat something, or fall out of a window

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## MiTasol (Oct 10, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _Chris Partridge
> BBC News
> In Germany, officials say they're planning to send Ukraine new air defence systems._


Hmmmm. We seem to have heard that story before about Leopards.

Are these going to be an equally veeeerrrrry long term delivery?


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## MiTasol (Oct 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Belarus's Lukashenko warns Ukraine, deploys troops with Russia
> 
> 
> Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Monday he had ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near Ukraine in response to what he said was a clear threat to Belarus from Kyiv and its backers in the West.
> ...



Hopefully that anti Lukashenko forces can now make a move on replacing him though I doubt any troops stationed near him will go


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## MiTasol (Oct 10, 2022)

at6 said:


> I hope that is hit again and destroyed. Hopefully it will be jam packed with fleeing Orcs.



No - leave the east bound lanes working so that the fleeing orcs can spread the truth when they crawl home (and save Ukrainian munitions as a side benifit)

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 10, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> A full report has been compiled for Putin regarding the Kerch incident but he has been so busy they had
> to send him the 'abridged' version.



So many puns in such a short span of time ...

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## Dimlee (Oct 10, 2022)

Brave man with Igla MANPADS vs cruise missile.

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## fubar57 (Oct 10, 2022)

Would have been nice if the camera man was just as brave


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## Jabberwocky (Oct 10, 2022)

More signs Russian armour stocks are getting low.

Increasing amounts of T-62M/MV being destroyed or captured by Ukraine. At least 30 in the past month (Oryx literally can't keep pace with the reports)
T-72As have been reported as being transported out of storage depots for deployment to the central Donestk area (the last one of those was manufactured in 1984 or 1985). 
T-72s (yes, not even T-72As, just plain old T-72s) and T-72Bs reported being transferred from Belarus back to Russia. Belarus got 70+ T-72B3s from Russia in the immediate pre-war and early war period. There is speculation these may just be going back to Russia for upgrades, but it's not like Russia has a whole lot of spare capacity when it comes to repairing/upgrading tanks for foreign nations at the moment.


I also think I found a good answer to why so many T-62s are being seen in Ukraine (seemingly in preference to the thousands of T-64s, T-72s and T-80s that are reportedly still in storage).

When the T-62 was declared obsolete against western tanks in the late 1970s, use was transferred to second line commands, mostly in the Far East. These units don't train as much as first line units with T-72s/T-80s so their tanks didn't get that worn out. And the harsh weather in these regions meant that a lot of tanks were stored indoors. 

These T-62s were also in more recent use - some second line units were still officially operating T-62s until as late as 2012, and were mothballed after that. The T-62 is also reportedly simpler/faster to restore from storage to service, less fuel hungry than the third generation tanks and has a smaller overall logistics trail. So it got preference over the newer tanks when reactivations occurred for lower intensity conflicts like Chechnya and Georgia. Which meant that the tanks were being kept up to date for second line use - as many as 900 were modified to the latest T-62M or MV standard prior to 2012.

So, there's a pool of (somewhat) modernised, well stored and reasonably maintained T-62s in storage. They're easier to put back into service, less logistics heavy and while the gun/armour/sighting systems is not up to moderns standards, they're considered "good enough" to support infantry and act as ersatz artillery/assault guns.

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## TheAircraftBuilder (Oct 10, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> More signs Russian armour stocks are getting low.
> 
> Increasing amounts of T-62M/MV being destroyed or captured by Ukraine. At least 30 in the past month (Oryx literally can't keep pace with the reports)
> T-72As have been reported as being transported out of storage depots for deployment to the central Donestk area (the last one of those was manufactured in 1984 or 1985).
> ...


Given the 62 needs a crew of four vs. three on the later autoloader types - one wonders if the RF has the manpower to fully crew them up? Running them short-crewed might work for defensive situations but in most other respects we're talking quite an old design firing soviet legacy ammunition (115mm rounds only really used by the Rapira AT gun and T-62) manned by reserve crews...... what's the worst that can happen? 

*I'm not an AFV expert but even I can foresee some hiccups.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 10, 2022)

I think if Lukashanko plunges Belarus into this war he is going to create a major issue in his own land.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 10, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think if Lukashanko plunges Belarus into this war he is going to create a major issue in his own land.



His political survival would be questionable, given his deep unpopularity and suspicions about the legitimacy of his last "re-election". His defense minister has already said, on the record, that Belarus doesn't want in on the fight.

The tea-leaves read to me like the Belorusian government is walking a very thin line between appeasing Putin and preserving Lukashenko's political viability.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 10, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think if Lukashanko plunges Belarus into this war he is going to create a major issue in his own land.


The Feb 2022 invasion towards Kyiv came from Belarus. Did any Belorussian units take part? I’ve read that over two thousand Belorussians are fighting for Ukraine.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The Feb 2022 invasion towards Kyiv came from Belarus. Did any Belorussian units take part?



Not to my knowledge, no. That said, simply the act of allowing Russian troops to launch from Belorusian land is itself an act of war, legally speaking.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 10, 2022)

TheAircraftBuilder said:


> Given the 62 needs a crew of four vs. three on the later autoloader types - one wonders if the RF has the manpower to fully crew them up? Running them short-crewed might work for defensive situations but in most other respects we're talking quite an old design firing soviet legacy ammunition (115mm rounds only really used by the Rapira AT gun and T-62) manned by reserve crews...... what's the worst that can happen?
> 
> *I'm not an AFV expert but even I can foresee some hiccups.



Russia reportedly has plenty of T-62 crews (for some reason). Whether that's because it has a surplus of trained tank crews, or has been training new crews on T-62s I'm not sure. A couple of different posters on Twitter and some military technical forums have stated in the last month or so that Russia still has more trained tankers than it has tanks to crew.

As for the ammunition situation. There's Soviet-era stocks and modern production as well. From what I could find Russia restarted 115mm ammunition production (for HE-Frag) sometime in the mid 1990s, and was still producing it as late as the end of 2005. There's also a bunch of other countries friendly to Russia that produce 115mm ammunition - half of central Asia, Egypt, Iraq, Libya. No idea on numbers, but if they're reactivating 600 tanks (as seems to be the rumour) then they're going to want a lot of ammo - typical load out seems to by about 30-32 HE shell per tank.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 10, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Russia reportedly has plenty of T-62 crews (for some reason). Whether that's because it has a surplus of trained tank crews, or has been training new crews on T-62s I'm not sure. A couple of different posters on Twitter and some military technical forums have stated in the last month or so that Russia still has more trained tankers than it has tanks to crew.
> 
> As for the ammunition situation. There's Soviet-era stocks and modern production as well. From what I could find Russia restarted 115mm ammunition production (for HE-Frag) sometime in the mid 1990s, and was still producing it as late as the end of 2005. There's also a bunch of other countries friendly to Russia that produce 115mm ammunition - half of central Asia, Egypt, Iraq, Libya. No idea on numbers, but if they're reactivating 600 tanks (as seems to be the rumour) then they're going to want a lot of ammo - typical load out seems to by about 30-32 HE shell per tank.


It may also be that T-62 has been the training tank for reservists over time so maybe there are a lot of people familiar with them.

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## ThomasP (Oct 11, 2022)

Interesting bit of info:

9 October 2022 Kyrgyzstan cancels joint military exercises with Russia and Belarus

Kyrgyzstan's defence ministry has decided to abruptly cancel joint military exercises with Russia, Belarus and other former Soviet Union members.

The exercises, named "Unbreakable Brotherhood" were due to be held in Kyrgyzstan this month.

Some 7,000 troops were meant to gather under the banner of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a six-member military alliance led by Russia.


Hooray for Kyrgyzstan!

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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Interesting bit of info:
> 
> 9 October 2022 Kyrgyzstan cancels joint military exercises with Russia and Belarus
> 
> ...



I’m not sure I’m cheering about this. Is this Kyrgyzstan standing up to The Man or did Putin tell them to cancel because Russia lacked resources to play? 

It may be an indicator that Kyrgyzstan is distancing itself from Moscow….but it might not. Regardless, it means Putin can now throw the troops assigned for the exercise into the Ukraine meat grinder.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I’m not sure I’m cheering about this. Is this Kyrgyzstan standing up to The Man or did Putin tell them to cancel because Russia lacked resources to play?
> 
> It may be an indicator that Kyrgyzstan is distancing itself from Moscow….but it might not. Regardless, it means Putin can now throw the troops assigned for the exercise into the Ukraine meat grinder.











Russia Is Losing Its Clout in Central Asia as Ukraine War Spirals


Central Asian powers are learning that Putin is not the tough neighborhood sheriff he claimed to be.




foreignpolicy.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I’m not sure I’m cheering about this. Is this Kyrgyzstan standing up to The Man or did Putin tell them to cancel because Russia lacked resources to play?
> 
> It may be an indicator that Kyrgyzstan is distancing itself from Moscow….but it might not. Regardless, it means Putin can now throw the troops assigned for the exercise into the Ukraine meat grinder.



A good overview of what this war is doing to Russia's standing in Central Asia:









Ukraine war fallout: Is Russia losing influence in Central Asia?


Russia’s influence in Central Asia, which it characterises as its ‘near abroad’, is diminishing, especially after a series of military setbacks in Ukraine




www.firstpost.com

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## ThomasP (Oct 11, 2022)

Also:

"Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Warn Citizens Of Repercussions For Joining Russian Forces In Ukraine"

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It may be an indicator that Kyrgyzstan is distancing itself from Moscow….but it might not.


Kazakhstan is now firmly betting its future and security on China, and is moving away from Moscow. With Kazakhstan between it and Russia, Kyrgyzstan also will be looking to China for security and stability.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Kyrgyzstan_relations

Furthermore, China does not want seven thousand Russian troops on its border - troops that may never leave, that may encourage some local disgruntled Kyrgyzstani warlord to start up a separatist republic like the Russians pulled in Georgia, Moldova and of course Ukraine. China will be the biggest NIMBY on this score.

I strongly suspect that both Beijing and their ‘Stan neighbours encouraged Kyrgyzstan to informally cut military ties with Russia. Russia is a pariah state now, that no one wants to be associated with.

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## ThomasP (Oct 11, 2022)

Also, I cannot see any of the 'stans being happy with Putin's constant threats of nuclear weapons use, or even 'just' the invasion of Ukraine. The possible effects of the one and/or the other can not be promoting warm and fuzzy feelings re their own physical or economical safety/security.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

I don't disagree with any of the comments about the 'Stans or about Moscow losing influence. That's a strategic topic and is definitely worth tracking. However, at the operational level, the simple fact is one of Russia's military commitments, for potentially several thousand soldiers, was just removed. That will likely hurt Ukraine in the current fight rather than help it.

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## ThomasP (Oct 11, 2022)

Possibly, but hopefully the open demonstration of lack of support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine etal will more than make up for any forces freed up for use by Putin.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

Not often we post about roadworks on this forum...but I thought this was really cool. Got to admire the sort of national spirit that results in such devotion to duty across virtually every sector of the country:

_A major road bombed out in Ukraine's central-eastern city of Dnipro has been rebuilt overnight, local officials have said.
They have posted two pictures showing the Kalynova street just after a Russian missile strike on Monday and how it looks after major works on Tuesday.
"We worked all night with gritted teeth," Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov says.
"We will restore everything and rebuild everything. But our hatred will live for centuries," he adds.

*




*_
*Dnipro's Kalynova street after a Russian missile strike on Monday (left) and how it looks now*

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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

This has to be the cherry on the cake of hypocrisy. In Russia, it's illegal to call the Special Military Operation a "war"...unless you're the Foreign Minister. I bolded the text for emphasis. Slip of the tongue, perhaps?

_Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has given an interview to state TV channel Rossiya 1, in which he insisted that the US have long been involved in the war in Ukraine: "It seems to me that the Americans have been participating de facto in *this war *for a long time," Lavrov said.

Commenting on the possibility that Turkey could host talks between Russia and the West, Lavrov said Moscow would be willing to listen to any suggestions and that Turkish President Erdogan and President Putin might discuss this during a meeting in Kazakhstan later this week.

Lavrov also said that those who continually speculate about a nuclear war allegedly being caused by Moscow should realise their responsibility for what they are saying, and that Putin has "repeatedly said that in our nuclear doctrine we regard this as an exclusively retaliatory measure".

Lavrov added that Russia will not turn down a meeting between President Putin and US President Biden at a forthcoming G20 meeting and would consider the proposal if it receives one.

There have been reports that both Putin and Ukraine's Zelensky will attend the G20 summit in Bali on 15-16 November, although this has not been confirmed by either the Russian or the Ukrainian governments._

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I don't disagree with any of the comments about the 'Stans or about Moscow losing influence. That's a strategic topic and is definitely worth tracking. However, at the operational level, the simple fact is one of Russia's military commitments, for potentially several thousand soldiers, was just removed. That will likely hurt Ukraine in the current fight rather than help it.


I wonder if those seven thousand troops ever existed. Perhaps Russia was close to canceling the move itself.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> _There have been reports that both Putin and Ukraine's Zelensky will attend the G20 summit in Bali on 15-16 November, _


IIRC, Zelenskyy hasn‘t left Ukraine since the war began. I doubt he’ll leave until it’s over. And Putin can’t risk another humiliation of being made to wait for other heads of state to see him.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I don't disagree with any of the comments about the 'Stans or about Moscow losing influence. That's a strategic topic and is definitely worth tracking. However, at the operational level, the simple fact is one of Russia's military commitments, for potentially several thousand soldiers, was just removed. That will likely hurt Ukraine in the current fight rather than help it.



Of what quality are these troops? Are they a few combined arms BTGs, an active infantry division, or something else? That will have bearing on what impact they may have in Ukraine.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 11, 2022)

They have not shifted all their troops to the war, not too long ago they had a joint military exercise with China, I assume they just used local troops. I suspect that is what they would have done again.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Fuhrer is having a tantrum - a professional military, especially one that has a supply issue, would use those resources on enemy concentrations to better slow their advances.


It's the same as when enraged by the RAF bombing Berlin, Hitler redirected his bombers from hitting strategic targets (aircraft factories, radar stations, etc.) and towards London in an attempt to terrorize the British people. This achieved nothing of the sort and served only to deplete Germany's arsenal whilst leaving Britain's war industry to ramp up production unmolested. 

For a supposedly smart chap, Putin is repeating many of history's worst blunders. The Internet Classics Archive | The Art of War by Sun Tzu

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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It's the same as when enraged by the RAF bombing Berlin, Hitler redirected his bombers from hitting strategic targets (aircraft factories, radar stations, etc.) and towards London in an attempt to terrorize the British people. That worked out well for him....


This is a trait amongst dictators, allowing emotions to supersede Generals.
The other problem that plagued Germany, is the lack of accurate intel. They were doing alot more damage to the British than they realized during the BoB and while the shift to terror-bombings was deplorable, it was actually a blessing for the RAF, who were able to build back their numbers while at the same time, inflict unsustainable losses on the Luftwaffe.

We are seeing pretty much the same thing play out now with Ukraine - Russia does not have an infinite supply of missiles and targeting civilian "infrastructure" (schoolyards, apartment buildings, hospitals, etc.) is having little effect on the Ukraine's ground forces.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Russia does not have an infinite supply of missiles and targeting civilian "infrastructure" is having little effect on the Ukraine's ground forces.


Good point all round. On this last point, the effect on the AFU will be to bolster their ranks and morale. Any adult male who was on the fence about signing up may now cross the tipping point of a decision to take up arms. I think I would after watching my town, schools, etc. hit. Meanwhile those on the front line, upon hearing of the missile attacks, and that the AFU shot down about half of them, would be motivated and optimistic to press on and finish the job. Putin might as well design and print the AFU's recruitment posters.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 11, 2022)

We where discussing captured T-62 recently

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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

Another 32 captured Ukrainian soldiers have been released:
_
Ukraine says 32 of its soldiers have been freed as part of a prisoner swap with Russia.
"All of them had been in places where fierce fighting was raging on. Many of these people had been considered missing," Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential office, tweeted.
He also revealed that the body of an Israeli citizen - named as Dmytro Fialka - was returned. He had volunteered to fight for Ukraine.
Russia has so far made no public comments on the reported swap.





_

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 11, 2022)

Putin says there’s no need for more ‘massive strikes’ - Ukraine live


Ukraine - Russia war - news today




www.independent.co.uk

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## SaparotRob (Oct 11, 2022)

Where are these Russian troops coming from?


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## GTX (Oct 11, 2022)

'There is solidarity': Australians rally in support of Ukraine after Russian missile strikes


Crowds have rallied in a number of Australian cities in support of Ukraine, after Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and other regions well away from the southern and eastern frontlines of the country's war against its neighbour's invading forces.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 11, 2022)

More missiles strike Ukraine as NATO declares annual nuclear exercise will go ahead


A fresh barrage of Russian missiles rains down on Ukrainian cities while NATO declares it will go ahead with its annual routine nuclear deterrent exercises.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 11, 2022)

Russians who 'don't want to shoot anyone' flee to Georgia


At 49, Russian man Igor Tikhiy should not be subject to mobilisation, but when he saw recruiters approaching his building with draft papers he made the decision to flee to Georgia.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Putin says there’s no need for more ‘massive strikes’ - Ukraine live
> 
> 
> Ukraine - Russia war - news today
> ...


These may be the new conscripts. Russia seems unable to arm, clothe and feed them, so perhaps Belarus will take this responsibility?

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## fubar57 (Oct 11, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-war-attrition-attacks-ukraine-1.6612536

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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

I find it interesting how Russia sees striking a bridge during a war, an act of "terrorism" but seems to think it's ok to target civilians.

It almost seems as though they believe their perverse propaganda...

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## GTX (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I find it interesting how Russia sees striking a bridge during a war, an act of "terrorism" but seems to think it's ok to target civilians.
> 
> It almost seems as though they believe their perverse propaganda...


Indeed


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## fubar57 (Oct 11, 2022)




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## SaparotRob (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> These may be the new conscripts. Russia seems unable to arm, clothe and feed them, so perhaps Belarus will take this responsibility?


I hope you’re right. If these are new conscripts, the threat is reduced. I don’t know how shaky the Belarusian army is, for either side. Now with an armed mob to deal with, as well as an opponent just itching for payback, I doubt any attack from Belarus.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 11, 2022)

They are wasting their limited smart munitions on non military targets so it's not like they are letting common sense get in their way. Unless the Ukrainians have adequate soldiers already at the border the Orcs and Keystone Cops could force Unkraine to shift solders from the south to the north which I suspect is what they are trying to do.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Unless the Ukrainians have adequate soldiers already at the border the Orcs and Keystone Cops could force Ukraine to shift solders from the south to the north which I suspect is what they are trying to do.


Today's AFU is not the light force that crushed Russia's move on Kyiv via Belarus in Feb 2022. Now with over 300k active personal and one million reservists, all well armed, equipped, fed, led, motived and provided with the latest NRO and DIU intel; today's AFU has the size, power and forewarning to crush anything that rolls across from Belarus. IMO, this can be accomplished without reducing the AFU strength fighting the Russians to the south and east.

I have no doubt though that the US has informally warned Belarus that in the rapidly changing political climate of Eurasia, Lukashenko might not want to tie his horse to Putin. Better to play like Franco rather than Mussolini.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They are wasting their limited smart munitions on non military targets so it's not like they are letting common sense get in their way. Unless the Ukrainians have adequate soldiers already at the border the Orcs and Keystone Cops could force Unkraine to shift solders from the south to the north which I suspect is what they are trying to do.


I was just reading that Ukraine has beefed up it's forces along the Belarus border and - get this - Belarus is now claiming that this build up is a "provocative and threatening" move by Ukraine.

Seriously...


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## GTX (Oct 11, 2022)

'This is not a bluff': Putin has warned the West of using nuclear weapons. So will he or won't he?


What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and how would NATO respond while still avoiding an all-out nuclear war?




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Maybe they should go ahead and place an order for the new German Panther when they go into production.


I know we jest, but what is the situation with Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine? Since March 2022 the story has been that the AFU do not have the knowledge/training and logistical/parts/maintenance to operate Leopard 2s. Is this still considered the primary barrier? 

Or is Germany holding up sending its own Leopard 2s or supporting anyone else from sending their Leopard 2s for other reasons? It's difficult to get a straight answer on where we stand now (rather than earlier this summer) on Leopard 2 MBTs for Ukraine.









Ukraine To Germany: 'Tanks Speak Louder Than Words'


Germany is a force to be reckoned with on the battlefield. They have some of the best tanks in the world, and their weapons are deadly accurate and precise.




sofrep.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I know we jest, but what is the situation with Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine? Since March 2022 the story has been that the AFU do not have the knowledge/training and logistical/parts/maintenance to operate Leopard 2s. Is this still considered the primary barrier?
> 
> Or is Germany holding up sending its own Leopard 2s or supporting anyone else from sending their Leopard 2s for other reasons? It's difficult to get a straight answer on where we stand now (rather than earlier this summer) on Leopard 2 MBTs for Ukraine.
> 
> ...



I honestly don’t know what the hold up is, however, maybe if Canada offered up some Mounties to crew the Leopard 2’s they would get sent quicker?

Mounties speak louder than words…

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## Denniss (Oct 11, 2022)

Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.

For those crying to send M1/Leo2 to Ukraine:
Those tanks are 15-20 tonnes heavier than common soviet tanks, engines are ~50% more powerful so require more fuel and the M1 gas guzzler some on top of that.
Ukraine probably lacks recovery, road transport and bridging equipment suitable for those loads (assuming rail cars would not have problems).
The Marshy/Rivery lands in eastern Ukraine may not be the best terrain for those heavy tanks.

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## manta22 (Oct 11, 2022)

I think most have already seen this one.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 11, 2022)

Note to everyone:

If you have a problem with a mod or admin, PM them directly. You don’t have to PM another mod about them. We talk to each other, so the mod will find out anyhow.

However, the real point is this: none of us mods or admin are assholes. You can PM us directly with an issue or complaint and we will gladly discuss it as adults. Usually a mutual and friendly solution/agreement is reached.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.


I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?


Denniss said:


> For those crying to send M1/Leo2 to Ukraine: Those tanks are 15-20 tonnes heavier than common soviet tanks, engines are ~50% more powerful so require more fuel and the M1 gas guzzler some on top of that. Ukraine probably lacks recovery, road transport and bridging equipment suitable for those loads (assuming rail cars would not have problems). The Marshy/Rivery lands in eastern Ukraine may not be the best terrain for those heavy tanks.


Did anyone ask the AFU if these logistical and terrain challenges are unsurmountable? Much of this war's tank battles seem to take place on/near roads. 

I assumed that every German tank from Pzkw.III onwards was designed with rolling across Ukraine (or like terrain) in mind.


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## fubar57 (Oct 11, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I honestly don’t know what the hold up is, however, maybe if Canada offered up some Mounties to crew the Leopard 2’s they would get sent quicker?
> 
> Mounties speak louder than words…


Canada is sending engineers to help train


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387

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## wlewisiii (Oct 11, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Canada is sending engineers to help train
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387


Good stuff, though the Ukies probably know more than us. I assume we've scraped together every Ukrainian-speaking service person within the combat engineers corps.


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## Glider (Oct 11, 2022)

TheAircraftBuilder said:


> Given the 62 needs a crew of four vs. three on the later autoloader types - one wonders if the RF has the manpower to fully crew them up? Running them short-crewed might work for defensive situations but in most other respects we're talking quite an old design firing soviet legacy ammunition (115mm rounds only really used by the Rapira AT gun and T-62) manned by reserve crews...... what's the worst that can happen?
> 
> *I'm not an AFV expert but even I can foresee some hiccups.


I know little about Tanks but it is possibly simpler to train a man to load shells into a gun, than maintain a (presumably) fairly complex auto loading system which has rusted up

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 11, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Canada is sending engineers to help train
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387



Not the same as Mounties.

Mounties speak louder than engineers.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

If the RCMP were it's own country, they'd be in the "FAAFO" club (along with Finland, Israel and Ukraine)


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## Jabberwocky (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?



T-72 and derivatives supplied or committed to Ukraine:

Poland: At least 230 T-72M1, undisclosed number of PT-91 (further upgrade of T-72M1, some complete new builds)
Czech Republic: At least 40 T-72M1, with additional tanks purchased from Bulgaria (thought to be some of Bulgaria's 44 T-72M1s). Czech Republic getting Leopard 2A4s as replacement from Germany
Romania: 30 T-72M1s supplied,
North Macedonia: At least 8 of 30 T-72As, possibly all 30 now supplied

Outstanding stocks:

Slovakia: At least 20 active T-72M1s, with around 10 stored. Reportedly offered to Ukraine, but also reportedly held up over dickering about German support
Hungary: As many as 35 active T-72M1s, with about 80 stored. Active T-72s due to be replaced with Leopard 2A4s and 2A7s. Tanks unlikely to go to Ukraine, due to Victor Orban's dickishness
Bulgaria: Somewhere between 120 and 160 in service and up to 250 stored. Mix of T-72As and T-72Ms. 40+ in service tanks undergoing major modernisation. 
Slovenia: 54 M-84A4s in storage. Had been planned to be swapped for stored Marders from Germany. Not sure what happened.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 11, 2022)

Last I heard of the Marders were the builders had overhauled them and were waiting on the approval from the German government to ship them (or at last some of them) to Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Outstanding stocks:


Europe, but not NATO. Cyprus has a lot of Russian kit, including tanks. But they’re on an arms embargo due to tensions between NATO members Greece and Turkey so won’t part with anything.

The Hunt to Arm Ukraine Leads to Difficult Choices

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> We are seeing pretty much the same thing play out now with Ukraine - Russia does not have an infinite supply of missiles and targeting civilian "infrastructure" (schoolyards, apartment buildings, hospitals, etc.) is having little effect on the Ukraine's ground forces.



And the Russians are running through their remaining stocks of PGMs targeting civilians, meaning that when they want to provide air-support for combat forces, they'll be more likely to have to use dumb, iron bombs, with all the danger that implies for pilots and expensive aircraft.

It could well bite the Russians in the ass going forward, especially considering American resolution to provide more and better SAM systems. Hard to do effective stand-off attacks with 250-kg dumb bombs, those pilots will have to get somewhat into the weeds to be useful. Good flying weather will be rare in the next few months, further exacerbating this trend.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> They are wasting their limited smart munitions on non military targets so it's not like they are letting common sense get in their way. Unless the Ukrainians have adequate soldiers already at the border the Orcs and Keystone Cops could force Unkraine to shift solders from the south to the north which I suspect is what they are trying to do.



I think this is the reality behind the matter. The Russians have already lost many if not most of their trained front-line troops who started the war. These new troops, coupled with Belarusian troops, would not be wisely used to execute active ops, given that the Ukrainians already rejected the first Russian drive which was after all composed of their front-line peacetime units.

So this is likely an attempt to distract the Ukrainians from the drive on Kherson, and further advances in the Donbas. I don't imagine the Ukrainians stripped Kyiv itself of defensive units, anyway. And -- now the Russians, with their logistical genius, now have to provide for 60,000 more combat troops on the march on an entirely separate axis of advance?

For those reasons, I think this is a weak feint.

The alternative is that this mass of troops might try to roll up the Ukrainian-Polish frontier in order to interdict Western arms and ammo supplies. That would perhaps be a wiser, but still risky, move, because they're more susceptible to isolation and defeat. It's still very vulnerable to logistical interdiction.

My prediction: they're a big dog-and-pony show.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'This is not a bluff': Putin has warned the West of using nuclear weapons. So will he or won't he?
> 
> 
> What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and how would NATO respond while still avoiding an all-out nuclear war?
> ...



I posted that interview with Petraeus the other day, and it's worth watching in full. I think he's right, that the West will use asymmetrical, non-nuclear, but still decisive force inside the Ukrainian theater to put an end to the invasion.

The potential for nuclear escalation still exists, to be sure. And that's very uneasy.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I posted that interview with Petraeus the other day, and it's worth watching in full. I think he's right, that the West will use asymmetrical, non-nuclear, but still decisive force inside the Ukrainian theater to put an end to the invasion.
> 
> The potential for nuclear escalation still exists, to be sure. And that's very uneasy.


In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.



Maybe, maybe not. If the NFZ includes all legitimate Ukrainian territory, Crimea may well fall under that blanket and thereby become indefensible from the Russian perspective.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.


Zelensky has stated that this is "all or nothing", he will not cede one square meter of land to Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Zelensky has stated that this is "all or nothing", he will not cede one square meter of land to Russia.


I hope Zelenskyy is successful. But to much of the world, Ukraine already ceded Crimea in 2014 by quitting the place without a fight, followed by the AFU standing down ever since.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 11, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Drinking tile cleaner, huh? Well, I suppose that's a step up from putting boot polish on bread and heating it so the alcohol in the boot polish soaks into the bread, and then eating it...which is what Soviet troops were reported to do back in the 80s.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope Zelenskyy is successful. But to much of the world, Ukraine already ceded Crimea in 2014 by quitting the place without a fight, followed by the AFU standing down ever since.


The Ukraine military was not up to the task of challenging Russia at the time.

To add to that, Ukraine did not have the manpower stationed in Crimea to refuse Russia, though they did slow Russia's takeover in the Donbas region.

The Crimean region is still legally Ukrainian proper.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Drinking tile cleaner, huh? Well, I suppose that's a step up from putting boot polish on bread and heating it so the alcohol in the boot polish soaks into the bread, and then eating it...which is what Soviet troops were reported to do back in the 80s.


Wine-Os used to pour anti-freeze through a loaf of bread when they ran out of Thunderbird and Ripple.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Ukraine did not have the manpower stationed in Crimea to refuse Russia.


Ukraine had a ton of forces in Crimea when Russia invaded. It’s just that most of them switched allegiances when the Russians arrived. The very few who remained loyal to Ukraine, mostly a few police, fled.

I agree, Crimea is legally part of Ukraine, and should be returned. I’m just not wholly confident that the West would continue to militarily support Ukraine on that one part, should Russia otherwise leave the Donbas, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts.


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## WARSPITER (Oct 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Wine-Os used to pour anti-freeze through a loaf of bread when they ran out of Thunderbird and Ripple.


Morris had cars with hydraulic suspension. A lot of people had the misfortune to go out at night, return to their car and see it
almost on the ground as the fluid had alcohol and had been drained. Same reason brake fluid had to be changed to smell like dead ants.

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## MiTasol (Oct 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope Zelenskyy is successful. But to much of the world, Ukraine already ceded Crimea in 2014 by quitting the place without a fight, followed by the AFU standing down ever since.



I think a fair amount of the world recognises that Crimea was virtually handed to Russia by a friend of Putin and a lot of chicken troops so will lean more towards total Russian withdrawal. Part of the decision will be that it weakens Russia far more if they lose Crimea and a weak Russia will not pose any problems for much longer than one that feels it won Crimea so it is worth another bite at the cherry

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 12, 2022)

Ukraine's MoD quotes Homer Simpson as latest Russian combat losses revealed


ON Wednesday, October 12, Ukraineâs Ministry of Defence published updated figures of combat losses inflicted on Russian forces since the beginning of the




euroweeklynews.com





Whoever is in charge of Ukrainian MoD's Twitter feed is brutal

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## rednev (Oct 12, 2022)

From a BBC article
Separately, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi tweeted that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant had lost external power for the second time in five days and back-up diesel generators had been started up.
"This repeated loss of #ZNPP's off-site power is a deeply worrying development and it underlines the urgent need for a nuclear safety & security protection zone around the site," he added.
Also Ukrainian nuclear agency Enerhoatom said in a post on Telegram that the Russian authorities at the plant, the largest in Europe, were not allowing it to deliver fresh supplies of diesel fuel.

What will the world response be if there is an "unfortunate accident "at the facility ?


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## ThomasP (Oct 12, 2022)

Couple of bits of info:

"Ukraine's FSB places 700 high-ranking Russian officials and politicians on the wanted list"

and

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## ThomasP (Oct 12, 2022)

Also, re drinking tile cleaner:

I was already aware of this due to friends stationed at the embassy in Russia, but for those who have not heard this.

"Russia is quite literally drinking itself to death."

and

"Alcohol consumption in Russia - Wikipedia"

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 12, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Part of the decision will be that it weakens Russia far more if they lose Crimea and a weak Russia will not pose any problems for much longer than one that feels it won Crimea so it is worth another bite at the cherry


A good point. It makes Europe a safer place for all. 



Though I expect a weak Russia will invite incursions from China in the 2030s. Especially if China is denied Taiwan and needs an expansionist adventure to distract its disgruntled population. So we may all be coming to Russia’s aid before 2040.













The Dragon The Bear


China and Russia start to tussle over Siberia.




www.forbes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 12, 2022)

When this war is over the wife and I are visiting Ukraine. She no longer speaks the language of her grandparents, but we’re both wanting to support the place. 

That said, I am surprised this tourism site is still offering tours now.






Visit Ukraine - Start your journey through amazing Ukraine right now


Safe tours in Ukraine




visitukraine.today





If that's fully booked, there are other options for war torn places....






Syrian Ministry Of Tourism


The Official website of the Syrian Ministry of Tourism




www.syriatourism.org









Afghanistan Tourism


Citytours - Premium site template for city tours agencies, transfers and tickets.




tourism.gov.af









MoICT – Department of Tourism







tourism.gov.so









Yemen Tourism Promotion Board - Home







www.yementourism.com

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## Dimlee (Oct 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine had a ton of forces in Crimea when Russia invaded. It’s just that most of them switched allegiances when the Russians arrived. The very few who remained loyal to Ukraine, mostly a few police, fled.
> 
> I agree, Crimea is legally part of Ukraine, and should be returned. I’m just not wholly confident that the West would continue to militarily support Ukraine on that one part, should Russia otherwise leave the Donbas, Luhansk and Kherson oblasts.


In terms of numbers, there was parity, probably. The official number of Russian forces was under 10,000 vs about 21,000 of Ukraine, but an unspecified number of Russian marines, VDV, and GRU was delivered several days before the seizure of Parliament in Simferopol and there was a huge influx of "civilians" via the Kerch Strait.
Roughly 70% of the Ukrainian military deserted and half of them switched sides. The desertion ratio in police and security service was over 90%.

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## Dimlee (Oct 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Dimlee
> Interesting.
> 
> 
> ...


Further on that.








Suspected Ukrainian Explosive Sea Drone Made From Recreational Watercraft Parts - USNI News


A small, unmanned watercraft of unknown origin washed up from the Black Sea on the shore of Crimea, near Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol, late last month. Pictures posted on Russian social media show what appears to be a small, novel surface drone made from commercial watercraft parts laden...




news.usni.org

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 12, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Oct 12, 2022)

That cheered me up!


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## J_P_C (Oct 12, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That cheered me up!

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## GTX (Oct 12, 2022)

Belarus says it is deploying troops with Russian soldiers. What do we know so far?


There are mounting fears that Belarus will enter the war with Ukraine and aid Vladimir Putin's stalling invasion. Here's what we know so far.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> Belarus says it is deploying troops with Russian soldiers. What do we know so far?
> 
> 
> There are mounting fears that Belarus will enter the war with Ukraine and aid Vladimir Putin's stalling invasion. Here's what we know so far.
> ...


5,000 dead Belarusians returned from Ukraine, followed by their furious families marching on Minsk should be sufficient to show Lukashenko the error of his ways.

Ukraine has one million reserves and over 300k active troops, all well armed, led and motivated. The AFU can hold the north whilst continuing its offensives in the south and east.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> Belarus says it is deploying troops with Russian soldiers. What do we know so far?
> 
> 
> There are mounting fears that Belarus will enter the war with Ukraine and aid Vladimir Putin's stalling invasion. Here's what we know so far.
> ...



Sheep being led to the slaughter.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 12, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sheep being led to the slaughter.


Agreed.









Belarus army would likely have little impact in Ukraine war


Statements made this week by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have reignited fears that his army could join Russian forces in the war against Ukraine




abcnews.go.com












Belarusians find the idea of killing Ukrainians crazy: experts


Ukrainian MP and Belarusian Anti-crisis expert shed light on the most recent attacks and the Russian Belarusian joint military action.




tvpworld.com


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## GTX (Oct 12, 2022)

Russia-Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin masters atrocities, but won’t win this war







amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org


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## buffnut453 (Oct 12, 2022)

Interesting video of T-62 tanks being refurbished and upgraded in Russia. 



Reports suggest some 800 T-62s are undergoing such work in preparation for operations in Ukraine. Does that imply, perhaps, that stocks of newer T-64s, T-72s and T-80s are dwindling, and newer T-90s can't be produced quickly enough?

There's also reporting that Russia has run out of 2S19 self-propelled artillery and drawing on old Soviet D-30s and 2A36 towed artillery, which are more vulnerable to counter-battery fire.

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## Glider (Oct 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting video of T-62 tanks being refurbished and upgraded in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What I find interesting in this video, is the silence. Anyone who has ever been to a large engineering factory will be aware of the noise and the activity. People and cranes moving around. Russia is at war, and it's not going well for them. The front line are desperately short of Tanks, APC's, you name it. That facility should be working flat out, around the clock, yet it's almost silent.
I think that says a lot

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## WARSPITER (Oct 12, 2022)

Glider said:


> What I find interesting in this video, is the silence. Anyone who has ever been to a large engineering factory will be aware of the noise and the activity. People and cranes moving around. Russia is at war, and it's not going well for them. The front line are desperately short of Tanks, APC's, you name it. That facility should be working flat out, around the clock, yet it's almost silent.
> I think that says a lot


Upgraded T-72's through to the T-90 have more high tech stuff in them and many have been sitting for some time.
From other reports over time as with aircraft the more valuable items have 'disappeared' (ie the things have been
ratted) making a lot of the later gear close to useless.

If this is the case Russia does not have the means to refurbish the later types as there is no way of getting or
producing the more high tech bits that have 'walked'.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> What I find interesting in this video, is the silence. Anyone who has ever been to a large engineering factory will be aware of the noise and the activity. People and cranes moving around. Russia is at war, and it's not going well for them. The front line are desperately short of Tanks, APC's, you name it. That facility should be working flat out, around the clock, yet it's almost silent.
> I think that says a lot



That's a great observation. Clearly, the bloke in the black leather (?) jacket is some bigwig or other (looks more like a mobster than a politician or corporate manager) so perhaps things were scaled back a tad to allow him to converse with the plebeian masses. However, it does seem odd that there's so little actual work going on given the operational imperative of replacing combat losses in Ukraine.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 13, 2022)

You pretend to pay,
We pretend to work.

Old Russian proverb

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## at6 (Oct 13, 2022)

The UN general assembly voted today to condemn Russian annexations. The vote means nothing as the UN is a nutless hog. Anyone one supporting Russia by absention is still Putin's ally. If they are recipents of of any kind if US or western aid,they should immediately be cut off and Russia should shoulder the financial burden alone.

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## J_P_C (Oct 13, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Oct 13, 2022)

Fixed it.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

Looks like the job's not finished.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 13, 2022)

Beginning of the end of Russian occupation of Kherson, perhaps?

*Russian-installed Kherson governor tells residents to evacuate*
_Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of southern Ukraine's Kherson region, has asked residents to evacuate as fighting between Russian and advancing Ukrainian forces nears, Reuters reports.
Saldo also publicly asked for assistance from Moscow on Telegram with transporting civilians to Russia.
Kherson is one of four areas where Moscow-installed officials held so-called referendums last month to claim support for annexation. The votes have been denounced as a sham by Ukraine's government and its allies.
Last week, Ukrainian forces liberated a key village in the southern region of Kherson, hastening another Russian military retreat.




_

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## buffnut453 (Oct 13, 2022)

Yet another unintended consequence of Putler's offensive....NATO and Europe will have stronger air defences:

*Fourteen NATO allies agree to boost European air defence*
_The defence ministers from 14 NATO allies - including the UK - plus Finland signed a letter of intent to create a European air and missile defence system through the common acquisition of air defence equipment and missiles by European nations.
"This commitment is even more crucial today, as we witness the ruthless and indiscriminate missile attacks by Russia in Ukraine," NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoană says.
A NATO statement said that the initiative will allow all participating nations to jointly develop an air defence system using interoperable, off-the-shelf solutions._

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Beginning of the end of Russian occupation of Kherson, perhaps?_
> View attachment 690587
> _


Looks like. See pic from this morning's war mapper. Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com The AFU are closing in on the Kherson airport. Once that area is closed, the Russians have no were to flee.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 13, 2022)

More on the state of Kerch bridge. If thre is any structural engineer here, how bad is that concrete is that bent in the remaining lane?

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 13, 2022)

Russia’s ‘irrecoverable losses’ in Ukraine: more than 90,000 troops dead, disabled, or AWOL — Meduza


More than 90,000 troops make up Russia’s “irrecoverable” military losses in Ukraine, as reported by the Russian media project iStories (or Vazhnye Istorii). One of the two sources of this information works in the FSB; the other is a former state security officer.




meduza.io

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

This guy's channel is my go to each morning.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 13, 2022)

Looking forward to see a T-34

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like the job's not finished.




Likely a result of stricter search protocols following the bombing.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 13, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Looking forward to see a T-34




Come and align yourselves with Russia. We love you. We are your brothers. We'll protect you. Oh...and when we say "protect" we actually want you to protect us....with equipment that was designed 80 years ago! 

Why on earth would ANYONE trust Putin? The "liberated" Russian loyalists must be appalled at the level of "support" they're getting.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 13, 2022)

North Korean workers in Russia escape after being assigned to Ukraine


North Korean construction workers deployed in Russia are going on the run after hearing they have been assigned to work in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like. See pic from this morning's war mapper. Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com The AFU are closing in on the Kherson airport. Once that area is closed, the Russians have no were to flee.
> 
> View attachment 690588



That bottleneck south of Kherson is _skinny_.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> That bottleneck south of Kherson is _skinny_.


There's a poly measure tool on the bottom left. When I use that to measure from that bottleneck to the centre of Kherson City is looks like 18 km or 10 miles. The AFU will take all of Kherson north of the Dnieper River before the end of October. After that there's not much urban area before Armiansk, Crimea, a two hour drive or 2-3 days march down modern roads across open fields, if unopposed.









Kherson to Armiansk







goo.gl

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## tomo pauk (Oct 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting video of T-62 tanks being refurbished and upgraded in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Tweet claims this, per google translate:
_Russia is modifying 800 T-62 tanks for the war in Ukraine. This means that the newer T-64, T-72 and T-80 tanks have run out, and new ones cannot be produced quickly._

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## GrauGeist (Oct 13, 2022)

How stupid is Russia for parking all those supplies out in then open at that airfield?

That is just begging to be a fat target.

Of course, all those trucks are loaded with "humanitarian" material, so bombing them would be a "terrorist" attack...

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## Jerad (Oct 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Теперь я понимаю... Россия не атаковала гражданские объекты Украины. Скорее всего, это победа украинской ПРО, которая привела к поражению цели. Еще раз, как СМЕЮТ
> 
> _Российский депутат и ведущий государственного телевидения заявил, что Россия не нанесла удары по гражданской инфраструктуре в Украине после очевидного увеличения числа атак по всей стране, в том числе сегодня в захвате Киева.
> 
> ...


Sorry its accidentally


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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)

at6 said:


> The UN general assembly voted today to condemn Russian annexations. The vote means nothing as the UN is a nutless hog. Anyone one supporting Russia by absention is still Putin's ally. If they are recipents of of any kind if US or western aid,they should immediately be cut off and Russia should shoulder the financial burden alone.











UN General Assembly slaps down Russian annexation of Ukraine regions 143-5


Three-quarters of the UN General Assembly condemns Russia's annexation of four regions of Ukraine, as Western leaders pledge more military support, including air defences, for Kyiv.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)

Crimea bridge bombing prompts traffic jam as Russia arrests eight suspects


The bombing of the Kerch Strait bridge that links Russia-annexed Crimea with the Russian mainland caused traffic chaos as Russia makes eight arrests.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)

'Kamikaze drones' rattle Kyiv in fresh wave of air strikes


Russia's latest attacks on Ukraine come as Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Kazakhstan in an apparent attempt to drum up regional support for his ongoing offensive.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)

'Everything has collapsed': Dark view inside Putin's Russia

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## WARSPITER (Oct 13, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> Tweet claims this, per google translate:
> _Russia is modifying 800 T-62 tanks for the war in Ukraine. This means that the newer T-64, T-72 and T-80 tanks have run out, and new ones cannot be produced quickly._


T-80's probably haven't run out as with T-90's. Production totals of the T-80 are over 5,000 and the T-90 minus exports would still be 450 -750.
From that there must be a lot that are simply not fit to be sent. With a total tank force around 20,000 it is ludicrous that less than 3,000 were
battle worthy at the start of the current conflict.

Instead of being an epic as in War and Peace Putin is getting a lesson in readiness as in - Flawed and in Pieces.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There's a poly measure tool on the bottom left. When I use that to measure from that bottleneck to the centre of Kherson City is looks like 18 km or 10 miles. The AFU will take all of Kherson north of the Dnieper River before the end of October. After that there's not much urban area before Armiansk, Crimea, a two hour drive or 2-3 days march down modern roads across open fields, if unopposed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A corridor that narrow can easily be covered by 155mm guns that are still fairly well behind the front lines, say, five miles. That could be like a Hogan's Alley/Falaise Gap scenario, with arty instead of pistols or aircraft.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 13, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> North Korean workers in Russia escape after being assigned to Ukraine
> 
> 
> North Korean construction workers deployed in Russia are going on the run after hearing they have been assigned to work in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine.
> ...


The NK workers were deployed at last?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The NK workers were deployed at last?



No, I think this is a matter of DPRK laborers that have been working on a contract basis for years now. DPRK harvests most of the income they generate for state coffers. It's essentially a form of indentured servitude, except that it doesn't have an expiration date.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> UN General Assembly slaps down Russian annexation of Ukraine regions 143-5
> 
> 
> Three-quarters of the UN General Assembly condemns Russia's annexation of four regions of Ukraine, as Western leaders pledge more military support, including air defences, for Kyiv.
> ...



Still trying to figure out why South Africa keeps abstaining. Pick a side damnit. As far as I am concerned a vote of abstention is equal to a vote against. You are a Russian ally.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Still trying to figure out why South Africa keeps abstaining. Pick a side damnit. As far as I am concerned a vote of abstention is equal to a vote against. You are a Russian ally.


Notice how China, Cuba and several other "friends of Russia" have moved from "against" to "no comment" (and even several voting in favor) since this all began?

That in itself is a solid indication of Russia's fading support.

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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)

This rocket is called 'Putin's nightmare'. Japan wants Russia to know they can access it


During routine military exercises on the island of Hokkaido, Japanese and US forces brought out a very expensive missile with iconic status on the battlefields of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 13, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Oct 13, 2022)

Thats awesome!


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## special ed (Oct 13, 2022)

Cuba for years has been supported by Russia. After the recent hurricane going through Cuba, they asked the U.S. for aid, the first time in decades. I guess there are no Rubles left.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Still trying to figure out why South Africa keeps abstaining. Pick a side damnit. As far as I am concerned a vote of abstention is equal to a vote against. You are a Russian ally.



I can't remember the English writer who penned the aphorism, "All it takes for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing." It is very apt in the matter of these abstentions.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> This rocket is called 'Putin's nightmare'. Japan wants Russia to know they can access it
> 
> 
> During routine military exercises on the island of Hokkaido, Japanese and US forces brought out a very expensive missile with iconic status on the battlefields of Ukraine.
> ...



As an aside: LtCol Guerra's last name is the Spanish word for "war". Fitting.


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## at6 (Oct 13, 2022)

special ed said:


> Cuba for years has been supported by Russia. After the recent hurricane going through Cuba, they asked the U.S. for aid, the first time in decades. I guess there are no Rubles left.


Don't give them anything.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 13, 2022)

at6 said:


> Don't give them anything.



I'd like to think we have bigger hearts than that.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 13, 2022)

at6 said:


> Don't give them anything.


The Cuban people are actually really nice, in spite of what they've had to endure under Castro's regime.

Also, Cuba's Little League team almost made it to the World Series finals.
They dominated their bracket, barely losing to Curacao 3 - 1.
Curacao went on to face off against Hawaii in the big game, losing 3 - 13.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 13, 2022)

How different would history be if Fidel was picked up by the Majors.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 13, 2022)

The quality of BTR-80 driver training as a synonym for Russian military prowess. Watch to the very end as the APC ploughs over one of the soldiers on parade, and some of the others duck out of the way. Amazingly, the soldier who was hit got up afterwards...maybe he'd had his fill of tile cleaner for the day.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 13, 2022)

Let’s not forget its the government we disagree with, not the people who often suffer at their governments expense.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 13, 2022)

Most people in the world are just trying to make it through the day, regardless of the leadership.

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## Wildcat (Oct 13, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The quality of BTR-80 driver training as a synonym for Russian military prowess. Watch to the very end as the APC ploughs over one of the soldiers on parade, and some of the others duck out of the way. Amazingly, the soldier who was hit got up afterwards...maybe he'd had his fill of tile cleaner for the day.



He later went on to drive this in combat...

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let’s not forget its the government we disagree with, not the people who often suffer at their governments expense.


Depends on what the people have done at the behest of their government. The Russians torturing and murdering Ukrainian civilians, and firing missiles into Ukrainian schools, homes and hospitals are just ordinary people, with parents, spouses, siblings, the same as the rest of us. But some go ahead with what they're told to do, and then some. I was just following orders no longer flies.

We'll never get Putin to follow Milošević into the Hague. No, he's more likely to end up like Ceaușescu or Pinochet, shot or deposed and dying under house arrest by his own people. But some high ranking Russians of Putin-level culpability will do.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> He later went on to drive this in combat...



We can see the mines right there FFS. I appreciate we have an overhead view, but clearly these mines were not buried.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 13, 2022)

Putin claims he's restoring the glorious Russian Empire.
Perhaps he'll end up the same way as the last Emperor, too...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Depends on what the people have done at the behest of their government. The Russians torturing and murdering Ukrainian civilians, and firing missiles into Ukrainian schools, homes and hospitals are just ordinary people, with parents, spouses, siblings, the same as the rest of us. But some go ahead with what they're told to do, and then some. I was just following orders no longer flies.
> 
> We'll never get Putin to follow Milošević into the Hague. No, he's more likely to end up like Ceaușescu or Pinochet, shot or deposed and dying under house arrest by his own people. But some high ranking Russians of Putin-level culpability will do.



Context is everything. We were talking about the ordinary citizens of Cuba.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 13, 2022)

Terry Glavin: The brutal reality of what's needed to end the Ukraine war — Coffins, with Russian soldiers in them


After the war, the Russian Federation needs to be dissolved and Russia demilitarized




nationalpost.com


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## MiTasol (Oct 14, 2022)



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## MiTasol (Oct 14, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> He later went on to drive this in combat...




He must have thought those were Russian mines that had been "maintained" by Russians so were perfectly safe to drive over

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Notice how China, Cuba and several other "friends of Russia" have moved from "against" to "no comment" (and even several voting in favor) since this all began?
> 
> That in itself is a solid indication of Russia's fading support.



Can't speak for the other countries, but China abstention is their way of voting in favor without voting with the US (wich would be politically unacceptable). The message is clear, just not sure if Putin is getting it.

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 14, 2022)

Did some research on Russian fossil fuel earnings, prompted by discussions over at Tanknet.org. Thought this might be informative here too:

In the first 30 days of the war, Russia's fossil fuel exports earned an average of $1130 million per day. This dropped to an average of $702 million a day over September (and $657 million over the first week of October). So, at current figures they're losing an average of about $450-475 million per day in lost exports (down a little more than 40%).

Russian fossil fuel exports to the EU dropped from an average of $713 million per day over the first 30 days of the war to $251 million per day over the past 30 days. For October, it's averaged $234 million. US imports have dropped from $34 million to $2 million and South Korean and UK imports have dropped to similar amounts. Gas imports are (baseline) forecast to be down 45% this year, -55% in 2023, up to -80% by 2025 and potentially totally finished by 2027.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports of Russian fossil fuels averaged $174 million over the past 30 days, compared to $169 million over the first 30 days. Turkish imports have grown from $71 million to $92 million. Indian imports are the biggest gain, going from $15 million to $55 million over the last 30 days.

Some of the overall earnings decline is the swing in prices in global oil & natural gas markets - which peaked in March and then again spiked in June. However, even with the ~20% crude price rally since late September, Russian foreign trade earnings from fossil fuels continued to decline in October.

Given that oil exports are 14% of Russia's GDP and gas exports are about 2%, that's going to sting economically.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 14, 2022)

Spanish and french SAMs on the way to Ukrainia:









Ukraine To Receive HAWK, Aspide Surface-To-Air Missiles From Spain


Along with Spain's air defense donations, France’s Crotale short-range air defense system may also be headed to Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Spanish and french SAMs on the way to Ukrainia:


By the end of November Ukraine may have seven or eight different SAM systems. So far I've seen reports of NASAMS (USA/UK), Crotale (France), IRIS-T (Germany), Hawk (Spain), SAMP-T (Italy/France), plus their own S-300 and SA-11 systems originally from Russia. Ukraine is asking India for the Barak-8 Indo-Israeli Missile System. Britain has now deployed its Sky Sabre air defence system to Poland, so giving a few to Ukraine isn't out of the question. The NATO designs will have some interoperability, but will there be any issues coordinating all these disparate systems?


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## tomo pauk (Oct 14, 2022)

It is interesting to note that, while Russians are hurriedly trying to make use of now obsolete tanks and artillery, Ukraine is getting better and better kit as the war progresses.
Go Ukraine.

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## Frog (Oct 14, 2022)

The russian diesel electric sub Novorossiysk was spotted and tracked by the french Normandie frigate (D651) in the bay of Biscay.
The relay was then taken by the Spanish and Royal Navies. 
Could have been a good target for a shot with a MU90.

*


https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awr.nu6lakljG.gIJmUk24lQ;_ylu=Y29sbwNpcjIEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj/RV=2/RE=1665784614/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2ffr.news.yahoo.com%2fmarin-russe-rep%25C3%25A9r%25C3%25A9-au-large-115845923.html/RK=2/RS=sdlN3TEJN_L5i3UX8wPYz1iEyak-


*

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## buffnut453 (Oct 14, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Did some research on Russian fossil fuel earnings, prompted by discussions over at Tanknet.org. Thought this might be informative here too:
> 
> In the first 30 days of the war, Russia's fossil fuel exports earned an average of $1130 million per day. This dropped to an average of $702 million a day over September (and $657 million over the first week of October). So, at current figures they're losing an average of about $450-475 million per day in lost exports (down a little more than 40%).
> 
> ...



Thank you for sharing this analysis. It puts paid to the idea that increased global fuel prices are compensating for loss of customers in Europe, and the idea that China and India can somehow make up for those European losses.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 14, 2022)

Interesting analysis of Russian missile stockpiles, and use of S-300s in surface-to-surface mode. There's also some interesting analysis of the Russian claims that it's Ukrainian defensive missiles causing damage in urban areas:









War in Ukraine: Is Russia’s stock of weapons running low?


Some security experts say Russia's supplies are stretched, especially of modern missiles.



www.bbc.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting analysis of Russian missile stockpiles, and use of S-300s in surface-to-surface mode. There's also some interesting analysis of the Russian claims that it's Ukrainian defensive missiles causing damage in urban areas:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Curiously I run today into this other bit of info.



That reminded me of the German tank problem German tank problem - Wikipedia

This other info analyses production capacity. Maybe they produce more than 3 Kh-101 per month but not many more.








Russian Challenges in Missile Resupply - Jamestown


After more than three months of its undeclared war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia fired over 2,100 cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles at targets inside the embattled country. Now it is facing a growing deficit of these types of stand-off weapons (Twitter.com/DefenceHQ...




jamestown.org

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 14, 2022)

I wonder if they will take the nuclear tipped ballistic missles and put conventional warheads on them.


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 14, 2022)

And it seems they don't do much better regarding manpower.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I wonder if they will take the nuclear tipped ballistic missles and put conventional warheads on them.


If they where Germans, you know they have reputation of being methodical to extreme levels, they will keep removing the nukes from older missiles and installing on the newest one on a systematic strict monthly basis. However, being Russians, i bet the nukes are still on expired missiles.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

ISW's update for the 13th:

_Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command._

_Russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13._
_Increasingly degraded morale, discipline, and combat capabilities among Russian troops in combat zones in Ukraine may be leading to temporary suspensions in offensive operations in limited areas._
_Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove._
_Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna._
_Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast._
_Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine._
_Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut._
_Russian incompetence continues to take its toll on mobilized personnel before they ever reach the front lines, likely exacerbating already-low morale._
_Russian officials are likely increasingly limiting freedom of movement in Russia to preserve additional mobilizable populations and prevent them from fleeing the country._
_Russian occupation officials called for the evacuation of civilians from occupied Kherson Oblast._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## Token (Oct 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting analysis of Russian missile stockpiles, and use of S-300s in surface-to-surface mode. There's also some interesting analysis of the Russian claims that it's Ukrainian defensive missiles causing damage in urban areas:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



On social media there have been reports going back at least as far as July that the S300 has been used as a ground attack system or in a ground attack role. And that makes some sense, or at the very least it should not be a surprising capability. Assuming the S300 has either a helo mode or a manual forced launch mode, it should be possible to use those modes to launch on a fixed location.

It also has to be remembered that the S300 is a family of missiles and systems, not just one specific missile type. The S300P, S300PT, S300PS, S300PM, S300PMU, S300PMU1, and S300PMU2 (and how many others I may have missed) are all S300's, but of different ages and capabilities. And that does not even start to go into the S300V stuff (S300V is a different line, which also carries the "S300" designation).

Talking about Russian missiles can get confusing to the unfamiliar. The same missile or missile system can have multiple names or designations it is known by. The terms V500, S300Px, 5V55, and SA-10 may all be used to describe the same missile. And then you get into the variations of each missile, do we mean the 5V55K or the 5V55R? The S300PT or the S300PS?

The point I am trying to make (and thus far failing) is that there are a lot of different "S300" missile types. Some are essentially obsolete, if not in performance than in the fact it has been replaced by something else. The Russians might be using up the oldest first, getting rid of missiles they no longer consider to be first rate, to do a needed task. For example, the original 5V55K or 5V55KD was command guided ( Almaz S-300P/PT/PS/PMU/PMU1/PMU2 / Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf / SA-10/20/21 Grumble / Gargoyle ) and would have had a much more limited range against maneuvering targets. But, against a non-maneuvering target, or a fixed target, you could push the range out to closer to the kinematics of the missile and still have a high probability of success.

It would tell a lot more about Russian issues / intent if we could get more detail on what is being done, i.e. are they just shooting up old original missiles to get them out of the inventory (most missiles have a limited shelf life, missile grain issues and such, they might even be using expired missiles), or are they shooting 48N6's that might indicate they are dipping into newer inventory in desperation? But we, at this level, are not likely to get that kind of information.

T!

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## Dimlee (Oct 14, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You pretend to pay,
> We pretend to work.
> 
> Old Russian proverb


Right, but it's a Soviet one, known in many languages across the USSR.


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## Dimlee (Oct 14, 2022)

Just another infographic about Russian missiles ("high precision" types).
I'd take it with the usual grain of salt... Predictions of a kind "they spent 60-70% of their new missiles" were heard during spring and summer.

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## Glider (Oct 14, 2022)

Taking into account the lack of missiles that most people accept that now exist in Russia, the following piece I found interesting



Putin says no need for massive new strikes on Ukraine



What makes you think the rumours are right.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

Glider said:


> Taking into account the lack of missiles that most people accept that now exist in Russia, the following piece I found interesting
> 
> 
> 
> ...



We'll have to see. Putin is under pressure from hawks in his country to go full-bore. If they still have missiles left he may have his hand forced in order to quell dissent from the right-wing there.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 14, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We'll have to see. Putin is under pressure from hawks in his country to go full-bore. If they still have missiles left he may have his hand forced in order to quell dissent from the right-wing there.



Yes, but the only way he can win is by destroying Ukraine entirely by using the big red button. No amount of missiles at this stage will bring Ukraine to its knees, and certainly not if those missiles continue to be used against non-military targets. 

Per Putin's speech, he claims they destroyed 22 of 29 identified military targets over the past few days. It would be interesting to compare the number of missiles launched/destroyed/impacted and their locations to see how that all correlates to Putin's "22 of 29" statistic.

I found it interesting that Putin, in his latest comments, says he doesn't want to destroy Ukraine. Maybe he's walking back his prior rhetoric of going nuclear? His hardest challenge is defining what success looks like. Other than vague references to bringing down the Zelensky regime (which isn't going to happen...and even if Russia gets lucky and does take out Zelensky, there are dozens of other Ukrainians ready to take up the reins and persist with Zelensky's agenda. 

So, what does success look like for Russia and will Ukraine be willing to accept the terms of that "success"? I suspect the respective answers are "nobody knows" and "hell no!" If my supposition about success criteria is correct, then this truly is an unwinnable war for Moscow.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 14, 2022)

Token said:


> On social media there have been reports going back at least as far as July that the S300 has been used as a ground attack system or in a ground attack role. And that makes some sense, or at the very least it should not be a surprising capability. Assuming the S300 has either a helo mode or a manual forced launch mode, it should be possible to use those modes to launch on a fixed location.
> 
> It also has to be remembered that the S300 is a family of missiles and systems, not just one specific missile type. The S300P, S300PT, S300PS, S300PM, S300PMU, S300PMU1, and S300PMU2 (and how many others I may have missed) are all S300's, but of different ages and capabilities. And that does not even start to go into the S300V stuff (S300V is a different line, which also carries the "S300" designation).
> 
> ...



Yep, Russia has a lot of obsolete hardware that they can explode on Ukrainian territory. The key challenge is whether it will do any good? Yes, it will cause some casualties and create some holes in the ground. They may even get lucky and hit a few important military targets. However, none of that will impact the progress of the war on the front lines. 

The West continues to arm Ukraine and the latter is showing considerable tactical acumen compared to the Russian military. Throwing more conscript bodies into the meat grinder won't result in victory for Moscow.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yes, but the only way he can win is by destroying Ukraine entirely by using the big red button. No amount of missiles at this stage will bring Ukraine to its knees, and certainly not if those missiles continue to be used against non-military targets.



Agreed, but my point was that he perforce must needs to consider the continued support of the Russian right, as due to recent Ukrainian successes and the call-up, he's seeing his broader support starting to erode. Can he afford to lose the hawks and still retain power? I don't know, and I doubt anyone outside Russia can have a firm answer to that.



buffnut453 said:


> So, what does success look like for Russia and will Ukraine be willing to accept the terms of that "success"? I suspect the respective answers are "nobody knows" and "hell no!" If my supposition about success criteria is correct, then this truly is an unwinnable war for Moscow.



Exactly. As America learned in both Vietnam and Afghanistan (if "learned" can be used when the mistake was repeated!), the absence of clear victory objectives and conditions is a good recipe for indefinite involvement, mounting losses, and ultimately defeat. This presupposes possessing the military power to actually inflict that defeat, which, as your opening point rightly states, is a highly doubtful premise outside of going nuclear.

In short, I think we agree they're ferfuckled unless they turn to WMDs, particularly nukes.


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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

Norway detains Russian man found with two drones and terabytes of encrypted images and files


Under Norwegian law, Russian companies and citizens are prohibited from landing, launching or flying aircraft over Norwegian territory, with security around key infrastructure also beefed up after the Nord Stream pipeline explosions.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

There 'aren't enough air defence systems in the world' for Ukraine to protect itself from Russia


Ukraine is in desperate need of an integrated air defence system capable of shooting down Russian weapons. But such systems are hard to come by, leaving the country with some difficult decisions, writes Andrew Greene.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

Looks like Elon is threatening Ukraine after getting his feelings hurt: Elon Musk's cold response to prospect of Starlink support being withdrawn from Ukraine

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

'Sick': Putin's plan to weaponise winter by targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Looks like Elon is threatening Ukraine after getting his feelings hurt: Elon Musk's cold response to prospect of Starlink support being withdrawn from Ukraine



The world may or may not be his oyster ... hopefully, that twatwaffle will get one out of season.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 14, 2022)

Token said:


> On social media there have been reports going back at least as far as July that the S300 has been used as a ground attack system or in a ground attack role. And that makes some sense, or at the very least it should not be a surprising capability. Assuming the S300 has either a helo mode or a manual forced launch mode, it should be possible to use those modes to launch on a fixed location.
> 
> It also has to be remembered that the S300 is a family of missiles and systems, not just one specific missile type. The S300P, S300PT, S300PS, S300PM, S300PMU, S300PMU1, and S300PMU2 (and how many others I may have missed) are all S300's, but of different ages and capabilities. And that does not even start to go into the S300V stuff (S300V is a different line, which also carries the "S300" designation).
> 
> ...


The S-300 family is all SAM or there is any SSM branch?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Looks like Elon is threatening Ukraine after getting his feelings hurt: Elon Musk's cold response to prospect of Starlink support being withdrawn from Ukraine


Musk can be seen as a visionary but for some time he has become an attention seeking a$$h°le.

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

How a former outsider wooed Vladimir Putin and survived his toxic inner circle — until now


Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was once among Vladimir Putin's most trusted advisers but, as his military campaign in Ukraine falters, there may be a target on his back.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Musk can be seen as a visionary but for some time he has become an attention seeking a$$h°le.


I think it's time the US government cut its links with Musk. Put out a tender for a competitor satellite-internet system, and stop using this guy for NASA and other space missions.

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)



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## Token (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The S-300 family is all SAM or there is any SSM branch?



The S300 was designed and is marketed as a SAM system. The missiles, and associated radars, are designed for executing airborne targets. That does not mean that it might not have been designed, from day one, to have an SS mode.

T!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 14, 2022)

Token said:


> The S300 was designed and is marketed as a SAM system. The missiles, and associated radars, are designed for executing airborne targets. That does not mean that it might not have been designed, from day one, to have an SS mode.
> 
> T!


If I understand you, main role is AA but maybe could have some ground attack capability?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> If I understand you, main role is AA but maybe could have some ground attack capability?



Clearly, given the evidence of their use in that role in Ukraine.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> If I understand you, main role is AA but maybe could have some ground attack capability?



The short answer is yes, but the accuracy is poor.

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## swampyankee (Oct 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> By the end of November Ukraine may have seven or eight different SAM systems. So far I've seen reports of NASAMS (USA/UK), Crotale (France), IRIS-T (Germany), Hawk (Spain), SAMP-T (Italy/France), plus their own S-300 and SA-11 systems originally from Russia. Ukraine is asking India for the Barak-8 Indo-Israeli Missile System. Britain has now deployed its Sky Sabre air defence system to Poland, so giving a few to Ukraine isn't out of the question. The NATO designs will have some interoperability, but will there be any issues coordinating all these disparate systems?


Just a nit to pick, NASAMS is US/Norwegian, not US/UK


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## swampyankee (Oct 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Musk can be seen as a visionary but for some time he has become an attention seeking a$$h°le.


The two aren't mutually exclusive

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 14, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Just a nit to pick, NASAMS is US/Norwegian, not US/UK


Agreed, but I believe it’s being provided from US stocks, supported by missiles from the UK.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> The two aren't mutually exclusive



One might argue that when both qualities are found in one person the dangers are more likely to grow. In that sense, he may be our era's Howard Hughes, quixotic to a fault, full of shit and himself, and not in that order.

Musk's playground thinking has no place in international relations, imo.

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## GTX (Oct 14, 2022)

Vladimir Putin says no need for massive new strikes on Ukraine


Mr Putin says most designated targets have been hit and his call-up of Russian reservists would be over within two weeks, with no plans for a further mobilisation.




www.abc.net.au


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin says no need for massive new strikes on Ukraine
> 
> 
> Mr Putin says most designated targets have been hit and his call-up of Russian reservists would be over within two weeks, with no plans for a further mobilisation.
> ...



Need, or capability? This was glanced-upon upthread.


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## Token (Oct 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The short answer is yes, but the accuracy is poor.



The accuracy may not be that poor.

I can't speak specifically for the S300, since I do not know how it works in the SS mode. However, I can speak to how a generic command guided (CG) SAM might be used in an SS mode.

From open sources, including the Australian Airpower article I listed before, the original S300 missiles, the 5V55K and KD models, are described as CG. Later versions apparently added additional capability.

For those not familiar ( 

 buffnut453
, I assume you know this, I am describing it for others that might not), CG missiles are basically radio controlled missiles. The radar tracks the target of interest, and then it uplinks (sends) commands to the missile to guide the missile to the position in space that the radar believes the target to be at. The missile does not guide itself, the radar on the ground tells the missile how to correct its path, and the ground radar guides the missile all the way to the target. It is, by design, accurate enough against a flying jet to get the missile within the kill radius of the warhead of the missile. For some CG missiles this might require putting the missile within ~25 feet of the moving target in order to be lethal.

Because the ground radar guides the missile, and radar track error naturally get larger with range, the CG system has practical accuracy limitations based on range. You don't use this technique for very long range shots, because at very long range the missile miss distance (based on track errors), on a moving target, might exceed the kill radius of the warhead.

Now lets apply this technique to a non-moving ground target. The radar does not even have to see, or be able to track, the target, all you need is surveyed numbers from the radar to the target, i.e., the target is 100.2 degrees azimuth true, 0.4 degrees elevation, and 50.4 km away. If the missile is launched in an up and over trajectory, the radar will provide guidance as if it was tracking that unmoving target at those coordinates. It will continue to guide the missile as long as it can see the missile. In an up and over it (the radar) might be able to see the missile until the missile is within a few thousand feet of the target, and the last command would arrive with the missile pointed right at the unmoving ground target.

For an unmoving ground target the accuracy might be better than for a moving flying target, particularly at longer ranges.

T!

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## WARSPITER (Oct 14, 2022)

After Syria severely criticised the S-300 system as an air defence weapon there weren't a lot of takers. With the S-400
system coming into play as well there are likely to be a lot of S-300's available so use against ground targets might as
well be done. 

GPS have been attached to S-300's but accuracy is still not good. As they also fitted with a warhead designed to take
on aircraft there is little effect on protected targets as the S-300 is a wide area fragmentation device.

S-300's may also be in use to save what is left of the more important cruise type missiles (Iskandar ?).

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 15, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> As they also fitted with a warhead designed to take
> on aircraft there is little effect on protected targets as the S-300 is a wide area fragmentation device.


That was another thing I was thinking. The standard warhead must be pretty useless against most fixed targets.

There are alternative warheads for the S-300 more suited for ground attack or the damage is planed only by the kinetic energy of the missiles?


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## WARSPITER (Oct 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That was another thing I was thinking. The standard warhead must be pretty useless against most fixed targets.
> 
> There are alternative warheads for the S-300 more suited for ground attack or the damage is planed only by the kinetic energy of the missiles?


As far as I'm aware there is only one type of warhead although it has 133kg or 143kg of explosive to allow a big spread. 
The only advantage for the S-300's is the speed at which they would come in. It would be hard to hit them.

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## J_P_C (Oct 15, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Oct 15, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russian-invasion-war-day-233-1.6616293

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 15, 2022)

More weapons from the museum to the front.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 15, 2022)

Soon they will be stripping all the T-34s off their Great Patriotic War monuments.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> More weapons from the museum to the front.



Okay, this just validating my hoarding relative’s mantra of never throw anything away since you never know when you‘ll need it in the future. Thanks Russia, idiot.

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## Denniss (Oct 15, 2022)

They are probably working 24/7 to get these tanks back into service or to cannibalize them for spare parts

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 15, 2022)

_*Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia's frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023. *Putin confirmed on October 14 that mobilized personnel are receiving little training before they are sent to the frontlines. Putin announced that of the 220,000 people who have been mobilized since his September 21 order, 35,000 are already in Russian military units and 16,000 are already in units "involved in combat missions."[3] Putin also outlined the training these mobilized forces allegedly receive: 5-10 days of "initial training," 5-15 days of training with combat units, "then the next stage is already directly in the troops taking part in hostilities." This statement corroborates dozens of anecdotal reports from Russian outlets, milbloggers, and mobilized personnel of untrained, unequipped, and utterly unprepared men being rushed to the frontlines, where some have already surrendered to Ukrainian forces and others have been killed.[4]

***************

*Key Takeaways*_




_*Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his "partial" mobilization will end in "about two weeks"—likely to free up bureaucratic bandwidth for the normal autumn conscription cycle that will begin on November 1.*_
_*Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia's frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023.*_
_*Ukrainian and Western officials continue to reiterate that they have observed no indicators of preparations for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, despite alarmist reports in the Belarusian information space that President Alexander Lukashenko has introduced a "counter-terrorist operation" regime.*_
_*Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 14 that there is currently no additional need for further massive strikes against Ukraine.*_
_*Russian authorities are continuing to engage in "Russification" social programming schemes that target Ukrainian children.*_
_*A prominent Russian milblogger accused unspecified senior officials within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of preparing to censor Russian milbloggers on October 14, but there is no official confirmation of an investigation or prosecution of these milbloggers.*_
_*Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeast Kharkiv Oblast east of Kupyansk.*_
_*Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions.*_
_*Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast in order to regain lost positions.*_
_*Russian troops continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and Donetsk City.*_
_*Russian authorities expressed increasing concern over Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear logistics lines in southern Donetsk Oblast.*_
_*Russian occupation authorities are continuing to consolidate control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) through strengthened security measures amid negotiations to establish a nuclear safety and protective zone at the plant.*_
_*Russian officials continued to brand their movement of populations out of Kherson Oblast as recreational "humanitarian trips" rather than evacuations.*_[/I]
_*





Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org




*_

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## Glider (Oct 15, 2022)

An interesting article was shown from Bloomberg showing how dependent Russia is on Western parts for its most sophisticated pieces of equipment.

Russia was and obviously still is aware of this dependency and the threat to the future strength of its military.

An extensive survey was undertaken in Russia and a summary was completed in April 2021.

177,058 components used in 278 types of military equipment were dependent on the West or Ukraine.

In 2020 a target was set to resolve 18,047 substitutions (for western components) in 43 types of equipment, but they only managed 3,148 substitutions in five types of equipment. The effects are significant

a) Efforts to produce analogue electronic components from scratch didn't even get off the ground: Of the plan to develop 4,148 different analogues in 2020, Russia managed — none. 
b) Cruise missiles, TU-22 bombers, submarines, the air defense system Nudol, and anti-aircraft radar are all dependent on western components
c) The anti-missile and ballistic missile defense system 14Ts033 Nudol, has 1,548 tasks to substitute components, but only 0.3%, including the supply of spare parts, had been achieved so far.
d) Early warning, long-range radar systems 1L119 Nebo-SVU and 55Zh6UM Nebo-UM. Work on replacing foreign components with domestic analogues had not started as of 2021, with targets to import spare parts met at 20% and 0.7%
e) GT-01 Murmansk-BN, a communications intelligence and jamming system that Russia claims has a range of 1,000km. At least 111 of its components were from EU and NATO nations and needed to be replaced, while the development of domestic equivalents had not started.
f) Yasen-class nuclear attack submarines, and older project 971M Akula-class submarines. TU-22M3 bombers and Su-34 fighter bombers, alongside multiple types of missiles including guided air defense missile 9M96. The IL-96 aircraft, Project 22350 class frigates, one of the more modern Russian vessels. The air defense missile system Buk-M3. Ka-52K attack helicopters. Forpost drones. These are all dependent on Western components. A good number of the contracts (approx 100) designed to fill these gaps have yet to be signed, let alone have started any development work 
g) Developing a supply chain is also important. In 2020 Russia planned to find alternative supply chains for 484 projects, but only achieved made progress on 5 of these projects.

Time isn't on Russia's side. As time goes by their store of spares are going to be used up and equipment is going to become non operational whilst the Ukraine forces are going to get better more modern equipment.



Putin Tried for Years to Stop His Military From Using Western Parts — And Mostly Failed

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 15, 2022)

On a side note, it looks like t-62 are way more likely to be captured than the average Russian tank.
I wonder if its because: 1) they break more often and are abandoned, 2) crews feel more insecure and are more predisposed to abandon them, or 3) both of them.

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## Frog (Oct 15, 2022)

*These ones could be recycled too ; just a bit phosphorescent by night :*

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 15, 2022)

The Russian military intends to reactivate and upgrade some 800 Soviet-era T-62 tanks *in the next three years* to balance its significant losses in the ongoing Ukraine war.
I wonder what happened with the T-14 Armata?









Biggest Upgrade In History? Russia To Reactivate 800 Cold War-Era T-62 Tanks Amid Depleting Arsenal


Russian military intends to upgrade some 800 Soviet-era T-62 tanks to balance its significant losses in the ongoing Ukraine war.




eurasiantimes.com

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The Russian military intends to reactivate and upgrade some 800 Soviet-era T-62 tanks *in the next three years* to balance its significant losses in the ongoing Ukraine war.
> I wonder what happened with the T-14 Armata?
> 
> 
> ...


An explanation.






Military Watch Magazine







militarywatchmagazine.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On a side note, it looks like t-62 are way more likely to be captured than the average Russian tank.
> I wonder if its because: 1) they break more often and are abandoned, 2) crews feel more insecure and are more predisposed to abandon them, or 3) both of them.



If used properly with infantry support the AFU can use the captured T-62s well enough, despite their low penetrative ammunition and lack of modern ERA armour. Most AFU tank engagements would be against hardened infantry positions and IFVs, not other tanks. That’s what MANPATS are for.


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## SaparotRob (Oct 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The Russian military intends to reactivate and upgrade some 800 Soviet-era T-62 tanks *in the next three years* to balance its significant losses in the ongoing Ukraine war.
> I wonder what happened with the T-14 Armata?
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe they’re trying to scrounge up a few 74LS221N chips or a DAC03CDX1 or two.


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## GTX (Oct 15, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> An explanation.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That article is a bit dated

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## buffnut453 (Oct 15, 2022)

Token said:


> The accuracy may not be that poor.
> 
> I can't speak specifically for the S300, since I do not know how it works in the SS mode. However, I can speak to how a generic command guided (CG) SAM might be used in an SS mode.
> 
> ...



The problem with command guidance only is that the missile must be able to see the command signal, which typically means the receiver antennas on the missile point aft. This drives flatter missile trajectories for surface-to-surface operations because the last third of a ballistic profile means the command signal antennas can't see the command signal transmitter antenna any more.

That flatter trajectory results in a faster velocity over the ground in the final third of the engagement, which means the command signal must tell the missile exactly when to dive onto the target. The longer the distance from the launch site, the more time it takes for those command signals to reach the missile, which inherently reduces accuracy, even for a static target, because the message to tip into a dive may come too late (or even too early) for the missile to accurately hit the target.

Finally, the curvature of the earth means that the missile can't even see the command signal during the terminal phase. This further degrades accuracy as the missile simply becomes an unguided rocket during that part of the flight.



 WARSPITER
is also bang on the money regarding the warhead. A SAM warhead typically generates a lot of shrapnel to increase the probability of kill against an aircraft. Shrapnel is great for taking out squishy human beings but it's less good at more solid targets. In the surface-to-surface mode, I suspect the primary effect mechanism of the S-300 (and similar) SAMs is the size and weight of the missile body itself.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 15, 2022)

Denniss said:


> They are probably working 24/7 to get these tanks back into service or to cannibalize them for spare parts




Not if the scenes in this factory are representative of activity across the sector:



buffnut453 said:


> Interesting video of T-62 tanks being refurbished and upgraded in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> That article is a bit dated


 March-4th-2022


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## special ed (Oct 15, 2022)

If Ukraine captures any WW2 Studebaker trucks, there is a market for them in the U.S. car collectors clubs.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>




There's one little boy who's had to grow up far more quickly than his tender years should have required. Bless him and all the other innocents who've been harmed, physically, mentally and emotionally, by this awful and unnecessary war.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On a side note, it looks like t-62 are way more likely to be captured than the average Russian tank.
> I wonder if its because: 1) they break more often and are abandoned, 2) crews feel more insecure and are more predisposed to abandon them, or 3) both of them.



Both plus they're slow. - 30 mph downhill with a tailwind on good roads. The crews are likely to hop out and flee in anything faster.

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## Dimlee (Oct 15, 2022)

Trench war near Bakhmut.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 15, 2022)

Ruscists. I like it. 🤔

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## MiTasol (Oct 15, 2022)

GTX said:


>




The person who did the original post of that puts "Darwin Award TM" on it which is a massive crock of sh1t.

The Darwin Awards were the brainchild of Randy Cassingham and I can guarantee that Randy had nothing to do with that particular fake award because the real awards were only given to those who raised the collective intelligence of the world *by removing themselves from the genepool. *The monkey in that photo is clearly still a part of the gene pool so does not meet the number one requirement. 

Randy shut down the Darwin awards some 20 years ago because of all the fake Darwins. He also shut down the Stella awards for the same reason but one of his other newsletters is still available at thisistrue,com

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## Denniss (Oct 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not if the scenes in this factory are representative of activity across the sector:


image is said to be of the Kharkov repair plant which is believed to be in Ukraine.


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## Glider (Oct 15, 2022)

I notice that even Putin's 'Allies' who he could depend on are now embarrassing him in public. 

_Vladimir Putin was given a stern dressing down by the president of Tajikistan in another indicator that the Russian dictator has lost respect and influence in his own backyard. Fellow longstanding dictator Emomali Rahmon, ruler of the Central Asian state of 9 million since 1994, seized upon Putin's woes back home and in Ukraine to give him a piece of his mind and tell him how he really feels during a summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana_



A glum Putin is given stern dressing down from President of Tajikistan

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## buffnut453 (Oct 15, 2022)

This is interesting...direct action from within Russia against those who want to fight in Ukraine:









At least 11 dead after attack on Russian army recruits training to fight in Ukraine


Two attackers opened fire on recruits who had volunteered to fight in Ukraine, local media report.



www.bbc.com

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 15, 2022)

Currently reading The Gulag Archipelago (long overdue and triggered by this war) and amaze me how little somethings seem to change.

Also, very powerful the paragraf about victories and defeats:

_"It was a simple truth, but it also had to be suffered: in wars, not victories are blessed, but defeats! Governments need victories, peoples need defeats! After the triumphs, more triumphs are wanted, after a defeat, freedom is wanted, and it is almost always achieved."_

Hope Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was right and freedom could be achieved in Rusia.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Currently reading The Gulag Archipelago (long overdue and triggered by this war) and amaze me how little somethings seem to change.
> 
> Also, very powerful the paragraf about victories and defeats:
> 
> ...



The entire set of books (seven parts split into three books, in the hardback version I own) is an amazing read. He makes many great points in there, including the one you've quoted. It's a tough and doleful read, but well worth it.

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## GTX (Oct 15, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> March-4th-2022


Yes I know - still dated in terms of this war.


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## GTX (Oct 15, 2022)

Norway police arrest a second Russian man for flying drones


Police detain a 51-year-old Russian man amid heightened alertness after a number of drone sightings close to oil and gas infrastructure in recent weeks.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 15, 2022)

Ukraine's covert missions may be reaching deep into Putin's heartland


For all the recent death and destruction in Ukraine and its occupied territories, as well as sabotage in Russia, there has been little military gain. But observers say a shadow war of deception is playing right into Vladimir Putin's hands.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 15, 2022)

Australia must step up its effort to help end war in Ukraine


The Albanese government’s response to Ukraine’s pleas for help has been too tepid and too slow. A more generous and urgent response is needed.




www.smh.com.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 15, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine's covert missions may be reaching deep into Putin's heartland
> 
> 
> For all the recent death and destruction in Ukraine and its occupied territories, as well as sabotage in Russia, there has been little military gain. But observers say a shadow war of deception is playing right into Vladimir Putin's hands.
> ...



His concerns about the Russians using the bridge event or the assassination to leverage charges of terror are fair. Putin is certainly using that angle to shore up his support in the wake of the disaster in the north, and the ongoing Ukrainian advances in the south. He's got the Russian hard-right sniping at him, and this gave him a fig-leaf for what are essentially no different than the German reprisal weapons of 1944.


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## at6 (Oct 16, 2022)

Russians are abducting Ukrainian children and sending them to who knows where in Russia in order indoctrinate them.The Russians are terrorists as well as war criminals and should be tried as such. The problem is that there are too many turd eaters afraid call a turd a turd. Putin and all Russian officials are guilty of crimes against humanity.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 16, 2022)

Denniss said:


> image is said to be of the Kharkov repair plant which is believed to be in Ukraine.



Who is saying it’s Kharkiv? Why would Ukraine refurbish T-62s?


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## Snautzer01 (Oct 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Yes I know - still dated in terms of this war.


Not for for this tank i think. . It has no equel tankwise on this battlefield and can only loose. In that, nothing changed.


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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia's frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> This statement corroborates dozens of anecdotal reports from Russian outlets, milbloggers, and mobilized personnel of untrained, unequipped, and utterly unprepared men being rushed to the frontlines, where some have already surrendered to Ukrainian forces and others have been killed.


You don't suppose there's a bit of calculated "fitness cleansing" going on here; sending the fat, dumb, fifty, and fragile into the meat grinder with minimal investment in kit and training in order to lavish ever dwindling resources on the more promising specimens, do you? Given the barbarity of this regime, I wouldn't Putin it past them.

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## Denniss (Oct 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Who is saying it’s Kharkiv? Why would Ukraine refurbish T-62s?


just mouse over the image or open it in a new tab and look at its name


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Australia must step up its effort to help end war in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Albanese government’s response to Ukraine’s pleas for help has been too tepid and too slow. A more generous and urgent response is needed.
> ...


It’s odd to me that there are no similar calls from the Canadian media. Australia could sit this one out, being a hemisphere away, but Canada is a founding NATO member and should be doing more, IMO.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s odd to me that there are no similar calls from the Canadian media. Australia could sit this one out, being a hemisphere away, but Canada is a founding NATO member and should be doing more, IMO.



I know right? Where are the damn Mounties? They could have already had them months ago. Why is the Canadian government holding them up? Hell, the mounties could deliver some precious CF-18s on their way over.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You don't suppose there's a bit of calculated "fitness cleansing" going on here; sending the fat, dumb, fifty, and fragile into the meat grinder with minimal investment in kit and training in order to lavish ever dwindling resources on the more promising specimens, do you? Given the barbarity of this regime, I wouldn't Putin it past them.



Prisoners, too. Easy way to get rid of all sorts of undesirables.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

_The spokeswoman for Ukraine's Southern Military Command said Russian forces were suffering severe shortages of equipment including ammunition as a result of the damage inflicted last weekend on the Crimea Bridge.

"Almost 75% (of Russian military supplies in southern Ukraine) came across that bridge," Natalia Humeniuk told Ukrainian television, adding that strong winds had also now stopped ferries in the area._









Gunmen kill 11 at Russian army base in new blow to Moscow's Ukraine campaign


The incident is the latest blow to President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine and comes a week after a blast damaged a bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea, the peninsula it annexed from Ukraine in 2014.




www.reuters.com





If true, this could be very bad news for the Russians in Kherson and westward.

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## Dimlee (Oct 16, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Currently reading The Gulag Archipelago (long overdue and triggered by this war) and amaze me how little somethings seem to change.
> 
> Also, very powerful the paragraf about victories and defeats:
> 
> ...


Great book. When foreign colleagues asked me in the early 1990s to recommend some reading about USSR, I advised starting with two books: Gulag Archipelago and... Orwell's 1984. The first - what has happened in real life. The second - what could happen if the Soviet model wins.

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## Dimlee (Oct 16, 2022)

_"There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid..."_
Israel joins the conversation.

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## Token (Oct 16, 2022)

Below I am going to draw from my own personal exposure to radar and missile system design and heavily from two documents, https://u.teknik.io/qTeGr.pdf and Almaz S-300P/PT/PS/PMU/PMU1/PMU2 / Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf / SA-10/20/21 Grumble / Gargoyle



buffnut453 said:


> The problem with command guidance only is that the missile must be able to see the command signal, which typically means the receiver antennas on the missile point aft. This drives flatter missile trajectories for surface-to-surface operations because the last third of a ballistic profile means the command signal antennas can't see the command signal transmitter antenna any more.



Have you ever looked at the S300 trajectory? In publicly released videos they show a VERY up-and-over, even when dealing with low level targets such as helos. Have you ever looked at the missile receive and transmit antennas for the links? I can find nothing that defines the beamwidth, and the beamwidth would drive the off-angle or off-boresight capability. Since the videos (and graphs in the pdf I linked) show an up-and-over I would assume the antennas are able to look off-boresight quite well. If the system is advertised to hit a low level helo at greater than 20 km (and it is), then it can probably achieve similar accuracy against a non-moving target 25 meters lower in altitude.



buffnut453 said:


> That flatter trajectory results in a faster velocity over the ground in the final third of the engagement, which means the command signal must tell the missile exactly when to dive onto the target. The longer the distance from the launch site, the more time it takes for those command signals to reach the missile, which inherently reduces accuracy, even for a static target, because the message to tip into a dive may come too late (or even too early) for the missile to accurately hit the target.



As I stated in my comment, accuracy of a CG system is degraded by distance, yes. However, it is typically angular track accuracy that becomes the larger issue at distance. The further the target is away from the radar the worse the target positional accuracy of the radar, i.e., as range increases, the track cell gets larger and the uncertainty of the center of the target becomes greater. If, for example, the radar can tell the positional accuracy within say 0.1 degrees, that 0.1 degrees uncertainty is approximately 26 meters at 15 km, and and has grown to approximately 78 meters at 45 km. I am not claiming the S300 has 0.1 degree track accuracy, I am just using that value as an example. Angular positional accuracy degrades as distance from the radar increases.

If you have a surveyed point to the center of the unmoving, unchanging, target, this radar track positional degradation with distance becomes a non-issue. The radar does not track / calculate the position of the center of the target (suffering its track inaccuracies), it just guides to the surveyed center of the target.

With regards to propagation time of the commands and how it impacts guidance accuracy, distance from the launch site to the target is probably not a player with the advertised ranges of the S300 family, especially the early versions. The max range of the early, command guided only, S300 (5V55K) is often quoted as ~45 km. The travel time for the commands from the radar to the missile at 45 km are going to be roughly 150 microseconds. The commands arrive at the missile, at max range, in about 0.00015 seconds. The maximum speed of this missile family is often quoted as Mach 5+, or a tad over 6000 kmh / 1.667 kms (the pdf linked above says the missile peaks out at 1.9 kms, but I am going to use 1.667 kms for this example, reasons below). So the missile moves, at maximum speed, at something like 1.7 km per second, pretty darned fast, but we are talking about a propagation time of 0.00015 seconds. If the missile is still traveling at maximum speed (assuming max speed of Mach 5), and at maximum range (~45 km), from the time the command leaves the radar until it gets to the missile 45 km away, the missile has moved forward approximately 0.25 meters.

Light (in this case, RF) travels fast, I don't think a missile movement of 0.25 meters during propagation time is significant.

However, at distance the missile is not really flying that fast. If you look here ( https://u.teknik.io/qTeGr.pdf ) and look at page 18, you will see the missile is actually under power for a relatively short period, the first 11 or so seconds (max acceleration ~19G), and is coasting from then on. At the end of initial boost it peaks out at about 1.9 kms, and then it slows down the further it goes. So while it maxes out at slightly over Mach 5, the majority of the flight is actually under that speed, but even at ~45 km appears to be ~750 ms, or well over Mach 2 at sea level.

Of greater importance is the radar frame rate, how often the radar revisits the target track and how often it sends commands to the missile. For many systems these values do not change with range, i.e. it corrects the missile guidance the same number of times per second if the target is at 10 km or at 45 km. Some systems do increase the frame rate (shorter intervals between commands) for closer range targets. This revisit rate should be selected (in system design) to be something less than the time constant of the missile autopilot, which is selected partially based on the aerodynamic responses of the missile air frame and the anticipated maximum maneuvering rate of the target set.

If the commands are sent to the missile 20 times per second (every 50 msec) then the Mach 5 missile will move forward about 83 meters between receiving sets of commands. However the commands will have been sent with the projected target point of impact at the time the commands were sent, i.e. based on where the target will be in the future, not where it is now. Indeed, to avoid a tail chase scenario, and to maximize range based on available energy (particularly true with a coasting missile), all commands should be based on the calculated target position at time of impact. You guide to where you (the radar) thinks the target will be when the missile gets there, not to where the target is right now.



buffnut453 said:


> Finally, the curvature of the earth means that the missile can't even see the command signal during the terminal phase. This further degrades accuracy as the missile simply becomes an unguided rocket during that part of the flight.



Which is why I said "In an up and over it (the radar) might be able to see the missile until the missile is within a few thousand feet of the target, and the last command would arrive with the missile pointed right at the unmoving ground target." Calculating the horizon, without mountains, over flat terrain, at 45 km the missile will lose link about 150 meters above the level of the target. Any additional features, mountains, buildings, etc, will increase that number.

But if you put the 5N63 / 30N6 radar (the radar that tracks the target and provides the missile links) up on the 40V6M mast you push the radar horizon out significantly.

Also remember, the missile will have been being guided to the continuously calculated position the target will be at when the missile gets there, not turned in at the last second. The last command that gets there will have been directing the missile to an unmoving position on the surface. It will probably hit pretty close even if it is ballistic for a few cycles.

Yeah, sure, we are not talking the kind of accuracy that selects which window of the building to go into, but hitting a specific building, or intersection, or power sub station, etc, should not be a big problem.



buffnut453 said:


> @WARSPITER is also bang on the money regarding the warhead. A SAM warhead typically generates a lot of shrapnel to increase the probability of kill against an aircraft. Shrapnel is great for taking out squishy human beings but it's less good at more solid targets. In the surface-to-surface mode, I suspect the primary effect mechanism of the S-300 (and similar) SAMs is the size and weight of the missile body itself.



I do not dispute the issue with the warhead. And, since this specific missile is only under boost for the first part of flight, you probably do not even have a great deal of fuel left on board to enhance the results. But even given a small warhead, a 1000 lb missile impacting at supersonic speeds probably does some damage.

T!

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## GTX (Oct 16, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Not for for this tank i think. . It has no equel tankwise on this battlefield and can only loose. In that, nothing changed.


You are missing my point. I am saying that the article is dated with comments such as:

"if its less capable counterpart the T-90M had been deployed in its place." & "Russia having refrained from deploying the T-90M, however, which is also highly survivable even against Javelins"

My read of the situation is that systems such as the T-14 are essentially 'mirages' - i.e. "look how advanced and tough Russian military is...oh, you want more than 5...err, I have to be somewhere else". Added to that is the fear of seeing one of these new 'super tanks' photographed blown up or captured.

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## tomo pauk (Oct 16, 2022)

Back in the 1990s, Serb forces were using the SA-2 for the ground attack in Bosnia. Innacurate it was, but also devastating if it hits a city.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 16, 2022)

Token said:


> Below I am going to draw from my own personal exposure to radar and missile system design and heavily from two documents, https://u.teknik.io/qTeGr.pdf and Almaz S-300P/PT/PS/PMU/PMU1/PMU2 / Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf / SA-10/20/21 Grumble / Gargoyle
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The problem with all of the above is that one of the targets being hit is Kyiv which is at least 100km from ANY Russian S-300 or other variant system. You can talk about guiding a top-down engagement onto a helo at 20+km but there's zero, I repeat ZERO, evidence that they were capable of command-guiding a first-generation S-300 missile at 100km range...and that's what you need to hit Kyiv if you're using CG as a means of improving accuracy. 

If they're using up stocks of the oldest missiles then we're back to the problem of the stated 45km range which is insufficient for many of the attacks we've seen in recent days. The range for a SAM is limited by (a) receiver sensitivity and (b) missile kinematics. Most missiles have a very limited motor burn and are then effectively coasting to the target, with each trajectory adjustment burning off speed and subsequent ability to manoeuvre. To hit Kyiv with older missiles means they're almost certainly just firing them ballistically (which is not the same as "up and over" which may, per my previous post, have a flatter trajectory) and hoping they hit "something" in the city. 

I'm not saying Russia is doing this with every launch against every target but it's clear that many of the missiles are being launched purely for terror effect rather than actively targeting specific locations, hence why we're seeing missiles impacting the middle of wide, 4-lane intersections, civilian apartment blocks and other non-military targets. 

Again, I go back to my previous point that, in order to understand the precision and accuracy of the S-300/S-400 series in surface-to-surface mode, we need to understand how many missiles were launched, the locations of the intended targets, and the impact point for every missile. Anything else is pure speculation.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

It'd be funny if after all this the Ukrainians show up next year with early-block F-16s and A-10s, and the Russians find out that their SAM parks are now largely empty.

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## Glider (Oct 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It'd be funny if after all this the Ukrainians show up next year with early-block F-16s and A-10s, and the Russians find out that their SAM parks are now largely empty.


According to one report I saw, they are bringing out some 57mm AA guns which is a sure sign of desperation

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 16, 2022)

"A weapon unused is a useless weapon." 
- General Sline


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> According to one report I saw, they are bringing out some 57mm AA guns which is a sure sign of desperation



I saw a report about that too, 1943-vintage guns.

To be fair, they might be of some use against APCs, but I doubt they can do anything against anything the Ukrainians are flying nowadays. No radar, slow rate of fire, I'm guessing these guns (if the report is true) are for the Russian soldiers getting their asses beat on the ground, not for targeting UAF planes that still aren't flying many sorties, and which they probably cannot track and hit anyway.

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## Token (Oct 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Again, I go back to my previous point that, in order to understand the precision and accuracy of the S-300/S-400 series in surface-to-surface mode, we need to understand how many missiles were launched, the locations of the intended targets, and the impact point for every missile. Anything else is pure speculation.



I absolutely agree with this. Until we have such data (and we will realistically never have that) it is all speculation. I was speculating about and commenting based on the basic design and known performance of the system and similar systems. As it was designed, I could see it being very accurate on ground targets within its designed ranges. That was my point, within its designed ranges. If they changed something, or are using it beyond those designed limitations, that speculation goes out the window.




buffnut453 said:


> The problem with all of the above is that one of the targets being hit is Kyiv which is at least 100km from ANY Russian S-300 or other variant system. You can talk about guiding a top-down engagement onto a helo at 20+km but there's zero, I repeat ZERO, evidence that they were capable of command-guiding a first-generation S-300 missile at 100km range...and that's what you need to hit Kyiv if you're using CG as a means of improving accuracy.
> 
> If they're using up stocks of the oldest missiles then we're back to the problem of the stated 45km range which is insufficient for many of the attacks we've seen in recent days. The range for a SAM is limited by (a) receiver sensitivity and (b) missile kinematics. Most missiles have a very limited motor burn and are then effectively coasting to the target, with each trajectory adjustment burning off speed and subsequent ability to manoeuvre. To hit Kyiv with older missiles means they're almost certainly just firing them ballistically (which is not the same as "up and over" which may, per my previous post, have a flatter trajectory) and hoping they hit "something" in the city.
> 
> I'm not saying Russia is doing this with every launch against every target but it's clear that many of the missiles are being launched purely for terror effect rather than actively targeting specific locations, hence why we're seeing missiles impacting the middle of wide, 4-lane intersections, civilian apartment blocks and other non-military targets.



We have comments in various media that the S300 is being used against ground targets. We don't know which versions of the missiles are being used (that goes back to my first post on the subject) and we have no details on how they are being used, only that "they are". We have little in the way of confirmation as to what targets have been hit by what missiles. Targets that are being attributed to S300 might not be.

If they are hitting 100+ km from the launchers, then it would appear to me that one of several things, or combinations of those things, are possible. They are not using the original, early, missiles. They are using the original missiles in a way not originally designed, i.e. a different form of guidance or combinations of guidance. Or they are only guiding the missiles part way, and letting them be ballistic after that, which would probably also require modifications to the missile and the radar, although they may be minor changes.

Lets talk about the "45 km range" of the oldest missiles. I will reference imagery in Google searches and the document I mentioned before, https://u.teknik.io/qTeGr.pdf Visually, the 5V55K and the 5V55R missiles are very similar, in fact they look identical to me. The performance curves inside 45 km look identical. We know there is at least one difference in the missiles, the R includes either a TVM (Track Via Missile) or a SAGG (Seeker Aided Ground Guidance), the improvement is called both depending on which source you quote. The PDF I reference above calls it SAGG. That PDF argues that there are no other differences between the K and R missiles (page 11). It also argues that the kinematics between the missiles are the same, and did not change.

Now look at the engagement zone curves on page 18 combined with the speed/time plots on the same page. It seems to show that the 5V55R missiles have plenty of energy to get to 80+ km at very high altitude. That would argue that something else kept the original 5V55K missile from being used at longer ranges. Again to that PDF, if you look at page 11 you will see what I was saying earlier, although worded differently, "The 5V55K used pure RCG which restricted the engagement zone in distance to 47 km because as the target distance increasing as the measuring error does the same." Basically, due to radar tracking accuracy limitations, the radar cannot accurately command the missile to hit a maneuvering target at ranges beyond ~45 km, so the limitation of ~45 km is not necessarily a missile driven limitation, but may be a radar system driven limitation.

As I said above, the engagement zone curves seem to indicate the missiles can be at ~75,000 feet and 80 km down range, with still intercept level energies.

What if the CG in the radar was changed (or always had a mode that was never demonstrated) to allow the CG missile to be guided to a long range and then tipped over in a ballistic curve to hit a ground target? Looking at those curves it looks like it could get to 150 km pretty easy, maybe further. It might, or might not, be guided until loss of LOS. It could all just be modeled and the guidance simply tries to put the missile through a basket in space at a certain attitude and speed to reach the target form there.

Of course, what I describe above would not have the accuracy of the same missile commanded all the way to a target 20-45 km from the radar.

Comments have been made that they have "added GPS" to the S300, with no details of what this means. What if they drive the missile out with CG to mid course, and then switch over to GPS for terminal guidance? Potentially that could be accurate, but if it is a kludge maybe not.


T!

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 16, 2022)

Token said:


> Comments have been made that they have "added GPS" to the S300, with no details of what this means. What if they drive the missile out with CG to mid course, and then switch over to GPS for terminal guidance? Potentially that could be accurate, but if it is a kludge maybe not.


And maybe they're just now exploring what the dang thing can do beyond its published limits. Wide open "test range" with no downrange safety concerns.

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> According to one report I saw, they are bringing out some 57mm AA guns which is a sure sign of desperation





Thumpalumpacus said:


> No radar, slow rate of fire, I'm guessing these guns (if the report is true) are for the Russian soldiers getting their asses beat on the ground, not for targeting UAF planes that still aren't flying many sorties, and which they probably cannot track and hit anyway.


Way back in 1968-1973 Hanoi and Haiphong had batteries of radar guided automatic 57mm flak guns that were no slouches against Linebacker raids. IIRC, the radar was called Fansong and the evasive action according to the trainer was a sharp diving turn toward the strobe on the scope to minimize RCS. A sharp enough turn reportedly could break lock, as the system was designed for lumbering bombers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Way back in 1968-1973 Hanoi and Haiphong had batteries of radar guided automatic 57mm flak guns that were no slouches against Linebacker raids. IIRC, the radar was called Fansong and the evasive action according to the trainer was a sharp diving turn toward the strobe on the scope to minimize RCS. A sharp enough turn reportedly could break lock, as the system was designed for lumbering bombers.



My point was that with so few Ukrainian aerial sorties being mounted, there may not be as much a need for medium-caliber AAA, although they could perhaps prove useful against drones flying low and slow. I suspect it's more a matter of "look at this big cannon we've brought you" and then the grunts press it into service as needs fit. Those guns would make good APC/light-AFV killers even over open sights.

Against modern fighters, probably not so much. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are bringing in NASAMS, the IRIS-T, systems designed to shoot down planes and/or missiles. If your backstop for ADA in 2022 is a 57mm with questionable radar for a modern battlefield, I guess you gotta shoot what you have ... poke and pray.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I know right? Where are the damn Mounties?


We jest I know, but some cannon-equipped or capable LAVs would have been welcome. Former CAF CDS General Rick Hillier, now chair of the Unite With Ukraine Strategic Advisory Council, says it best:

_"We've been very cautious, even selfish, on equipment. We could take a lot more chances — for example take 300 LAV111s, send them to Ukraine and challenge General Dynamics Land Systems to replace them with a better vehicle for the Canadian Army. We've done some good things, but the first $500 million is gone and my question is where is the next $500 million going?"_









General Rick Hillier Says Canada Should Offer Training to Ukrainian Troops


In a new article published in Canada's National Post, General Rick Hillier, who is the chair of the Unite With Ukraine Strategic Advisory Council, said that the next step of Canadian support to Ukraine should be Canadian troops offering training to Ukrainian troops.




www.unitewithukraine.com

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## manta22 (Oct 16, 2022)

This discussion of radar, accuracy, command guidance, and missile trajectory is very interesting to me as it regards missiles that are far more advanced than the ones I was intimately involved with in '60 to '63, the Corporal Type IIB. This was the first field artillery guided missile ever deployed by the US. Much of its early development was based on the German V2 but with significant improvements. This 44 ft 10 in missile was liquid-fueled with red fuming nitric acid and analine with a slug of furfuryl alcohol to aid starting. It could carry either a conventional or nuclear warhead.

There was a combination of internal and external guidance systems:

1. Internal guidance consisted of a gyro and accelerometers to keep it upright during its launch phase and a pre-programmed timer to pitch it over to its proper flight path.

2. External guidance was fairly complex; an MPM-38 (SCR-584) pulse radar provided tracking of the missile in-flight- azimuth, elevation, and slant range while a 5-ton van with an analog computer (26 op-amps!) calculated the proper time to shut off the rocket motor so it would hit the target. At the same time a Doppler radar also fed velocity data to the computer. After the missile shut off, it flew ballistically out of the atmosphere but upon its re-entry the steering fins would again become effective. At that time the Doppler radar would send a final range correction and warhead arming command.

At that point we would tear down the whole system and haul ass since something was probably back at us very soon!

I thought you might like to hear what it was like in the "olden days".

Note: This was once Classified but has long since been Declassified. The Corporal IIB published range was 75 miles.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We jest I know, but some cannon-equipped or capable LAVs would have been welcome. Former CAF CDS General Rick Hillier, now chair of the Unite With Ukraine Strategic Advisory Council, says it best:
> 
> _"We've been very cautious, even selfish, on equipment. We could take a lot more chances — for example take 300 LAV111s, send them to Ukraine and challenge General Dynamics Land Systems to replace them with a better vehicle for the Canadian Army. We've done some good things, but the first $500 million is gone and my question is where is the next $500 million going?"_
> 
> ...



Good idea! The Mounties could drive the LAVs! 

And yes, we jest…

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 16, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Good idea! The Mounties could drive the LAVs!
> 
> And yes, we jest…


The RCMP is planning to deploy to or is already in Ukraine to assist with war crimes investigations. If our Mounties can help bring some of these Russians to Justice it will be a good Canadian contribution.









RCMP on the ground in Ukraine collecting possible war crime evidence


The investigation by the Mounties has been launched through the federal war crimes program to ensure important information and evidence is gathered from Ukrainians who wish to provide it upon arrival.




www.nationalobserver.com







https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rcmp-more-investigators-to-hague-1.6401555



We Canadians have a long and strong relationship with Ukraine. I do wish we were sending more lethal aid to support the coming offensives. Such as LAVs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> We jest I know, but some cannon-equipped or capable LAVs would have been welcome. Former CAF CDS General Rick Hillier, now chair of the Unite With Ukraine Strategic Advisory Council, says it best:
> 
> _"We've been very cautious, even selfish, on equipment. We could take a lot more chances — for example take 300 LAV111s, send them to Ukraine and challenge General Dynamics Land Systems to replace them with a better vehicle for the Canadian Army. We've done some good things, but the first $500 million is gone and my question is where is the next $500 million going?"_
> 
> ...



I found it disconcerting, discovering today that Canada is sending AFVs to Haiti but won't do the same for Ukraine. I'm not casting any aspersions, just wondering about the difference in urgency. Reports are that the vehicles were sold to the Haitians, but I haven't seen anything about manpower deployments. At any rate, why not do the same for Ukraine?


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I found it disconcerting, discovering today that Canada is sending AFVs to Haiti but won't do the same for Ukraine. I'm not casting any aspersions, just wondering about the difference in urgency. Reports are that the vehicles were sold to the Haitians, but I haven't seen anything about manpower deployments. At any rate, why not do the same for Ukraine?


Haiti is a mess and would be better if it sank into the sea. France, not Canada should be leading any aid there.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

manta22 said:


> [...] red fuming nitric acid [...]



Thanks, found the name for my next band.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Haiti is a mess and would be better if it sank into the sea. France, not Canada should be leading any aid there.



I agreed with your post not because I think Haiti should be gone but because France should pay the you-broke-it-you-bought-it bill.

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## manta22 (Oct 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Thanks, found the name for my next band.


Acid Rock!!!

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## buffnut453 (Oct 16, 2022)

Token said:


> I absolutely agree with this. Until we have such data (and we will realistically never have that) it is all speculation. I was speculating about and commenting based on the basic design and known performance of the system and similar systems. As it was designed, I could see it being very accurate on ground targets within its designed ranges. That was my point, within its designed ranges. If they changed something, or are using it beyond those designed limitations, that speculation goes out the window.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I can't disagree with anything you're saying, indeed it seems we're pretty much agreeing with the technical limitations that drove the 45km range on the earliest S-300 missile variants. TVM or even just basic SARH could enable substantial improvements in range because the receiver on the missile is a lot closer to the target than the receiver on the SAM radar. 

The idea of CG remains an option to improve accuracy in surface-to-surface mode...but the problems I outlined, not least precisely timing the signal to hit the target, are still challenging and increase with distance. Alas, we're still in "what if" and "maybe they" territory. 

If Russia has integrated GPS then, presumably, it's GPS-aided INS which is exactly the approach used on JDAM kits. If you have GPS-aided INS, then CG doesn't provide any additional increase in precision or accuracy. That said, it all comes down to how well the GPS is integrated into the INS, the frequency of GPS update and the rate at which the INS drifts over time. 

If they are using GPS-aided INS, then I'd still expect precision and accuracy to be better than some of the missile strikes we've seen in Ukraine...again, assuming the weapon employed was the S-300/S-400 employed in surface-to-surface mode. However, there's no need to switch from CG to GPS-aided. They could just launch ballistically and rely on the GPS-aided INS to get it to the target.


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## Wildcat (Oct 16, 2022)

Has there been any confirmation of the 4 Ka-52's claimed shot down the other day?


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## WARSPITER (Oct 16, 2022)

Wildcat said:


> Has there been any confirmation of the 4 Ka-52's claimed shot down the other day?


Ukrainian sources claim to have video and photographic evidence that they downed four of those and may have hit more.

Haven't seen any of the evidence though.


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## J_P_C (Oct 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My point was that with so few Ukrainian aerial sorties being mounted, there may not be as much a need for medium-caliber AAA, although they could perhaps prove useful against drones flying low and slow. I suspect it's more a matter of "look at this big cannon we've brought you" and then the grunts press it into service as needs fit. Those guns would make good APC/light-AFV killers even over open sights.
> 
> Against modern fighters, probably not so much. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are bringing in NASAMS, the IRIS-T, systems designed to shoot down planes and/or missiles. If your backstop for ADA in 2022 is a 57mm with questionable radar for a modern battlefield, I guess you gotta shoot what you have ... poke and pray.


how to convince 1970's radar system to work again???? this is not mechanical hardware, WD40 and hammer will not be enough....

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 17, 2022)

The Russians advertised a new SP AAA vehicle in 2018 or 2019, using the S-60 and a BMP 3 chassis. I think a few have even made it into service. So, there might be a relatively modern radar being built that these old S-60 ground guns could be teamed with?

It's honestly not a bad concept for the medium range AD role. The S-60 is a hell of a gun - high velocity, accurate, relatively high rate of fire (~2 rounds per second) and able to put a hole in anything that's not an MBT. Plus, it has a multiplicity of ammunition types - there's proximity airburst, timed and graze fused ammunition for AAA roles, basic instantaneous fuses for ground roles and AP-T/API for engaging light armour.

The Ukrainians have also put some of their S-60s back into service. There was video back from July or August of them using it as mid-range artillery. Bang off a couple of clips of HE and then tractor the gun to a different position.

EDIT: Adding video link


It's an OLD tactic - the Bofors 40mm was used as an indirect fire gun by the Allies during WW2 (mostly because there weren't very many German aircraft to shoot at). Sometimes en masse.

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## GTX (Oct 17, 2022)

Russia's displays of destroyed Australian bushmasters


Russia has displayed a destroyed Australian-made Bushmaster outside Moscow as part of a war trophy exhibition of vehicles captured from Ukrainian forces defending their country.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Denniss (Oct 17, 2022)

What a fake show at Moscow, the Ukrainians can fill entire cities with all the russian scrap metal and another city with all the vehicles captured intact.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

What is Iran’s motivation for providing drones to Russia? I know they like to be a global sh#t disturber, and maybe some Russian money is welcome, presumably not rubles. But with Russia becoming a pariah state with significantly declined prestige and global street cred, one that is increasingly embarrassing itself on the battlefield, this does nothing to strategically strengthen Iran.


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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What is Iran’s motivation for providing drones to Russia? I know they like to be a global sh#t disturber, and maybe some Russian money is welcome, presumably not rubles. But with Russia becoming a pariah state with significantly declined prestige and global street cred, one that is increasingly embarrassing itself on the battlefield, this does nothing to strategically strengthen Iran.


"Tyrants of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your heads!"

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## buffnut453 (Oct 17, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Tyrants of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your heads!"



Not to derail the thread but things are not going well for the Tehran regime right now:









2022 Iran protests - BBC News


All the latest content about 2022 Iran protests from the BBC.



www.bbc.com

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## macharvard (Oct 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I found it disconcerting, discovering today that Canada is sending AFVs to Haiti but won't do the same for Ukraine. I'm not casting any aspersions, just wondering about the difference in urgency. Reports are that the vehicles were sold to the Haitians, but I haven't seen anything about manpower deployments. At any rate, why not do the same for Ukraine?


Not a really great or somplete answer, but it appears, from a CTV news iitem, that the US and Canada sold these units to Haiti. "Today, Canadian and U.S. military aircraft arrived in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to transfer vital Haitian government-purchased security equipment, including tactical and armoured vehicles, and supplies to the Director General of the Haitian National Police (HNP)," the statement reads.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

This article helps to explain why Iran is supporting Russia against Ukraine. In short, oppose the US everywhere.









A zero-sum game: How the war in Ukraine is helping Iran achieve its national security objectives | The Milwaukee Independent







www.milwaukeeindependent.com







buffnut453 said:


> Not to derail the thread but things are not going well for the Tehran regime right now:


True, but unless the praetorian-like Revolutionary Guard can be convinced to turn, which is to most considered impossible, the rebellion in Iran will almost certainly be crushed. Iran is more a military state than a theocratic one nowadays.

Iran’s Loyal Security Forces Protect Ruling System That Protesters Want to Topple

The only hope is that the 420,000 members of the regular Iranian army rebel against the 200,000 strong Revolutionary Guard and the ayatollahs they protect. Perhaps Ukraine can find some way to return to favour and smack down Iran.

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## ThomasP (Oct 17, 2022)

re the Iran-Russian relationship.

Russia has been working with Iran to develop a nuclear power based electricity infrastructure in Iran. For those of you not aware of it, Iran has been trying to accomplish this since the 1950s, back when US had a great deal of influence over the Shah.

see ""

For the last 5 years or so the Russians have taken the lead in aiding Iran to accomplish this goal.

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## macharvard (Oct 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I found it disconcerting, discovering today that Canada is sending AFVs to Haiti but won't do the same for Ukraine. I'm not casting any aspersions, just wondering about the difference in urgency. Reports are that the vehicles were sold to the Haitians, but I haven't seen anything about manpower deployments. At any rate, why not do the same for Ukraine?


"Today, Canadian and U.S. military aircraft arrived in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to transfer vital Haitian government-purchased security equipment, including tactical and armoured vehicles, and supplies to the Director General of the Haitian National Police (HNP)," the statement reads.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid..."_
> Israel joins the conversation.




_"Israel giving arms to Ukraine will 'destroy' ties with Russia"_






i24NEWS







www.i24news.tv

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## buffnut453 (Oct 17, 2022)

Interesting update on the move of Russian forces into Belarus:

_A joint Belarus-Russian troop grouping "has begun the task of protecting the Union state", says Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin, amid concerns in the West that it may be used as a launchpad for an offensive against Ukraine.

But Khrenin is quoted as saying that "we are not going to attack anyone" and that the force's aims are "purely defensive".

He did not specify how many troops are in the grouping, or where it has been deployed, but Minsk earlier said that just under 9,000 Russian soldiers would be sent to Ukraine's northern neighbour.

Belarus has been a key Russian ally since the start of Moscow's invasion on 24 February. Russia's failed offensive on Ukraine's capital Kyiv was launched from Belarusian soil.

Ukraine's military says it is monitoring all the latest developments in Belarus, and its troops are prepared for any eventualities._


While the assertions that Belarus won't "attack anyone" are slightly reassuring, the total of 9,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus is a large number given Russia's operational challenges in Ukraine. Perhaps some of the 300,000 poorly-trained conscripts are going to Belarus as part of this so-called defensive force?

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## SaparotRob (Oct 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> _"Israel giving arms to Ukraine will 'destroy' ties with Russia"_
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Screw him.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 17, 2022)

Yeah, the troops in Belarus "won't attack anyone" just like the "joint military exercises" in February were just "exercises" and nothing more.

If there was ever a poster child for lying bullshit phrases, this is it.

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## Glider (Oct 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Screw him.


Short, Succent, to the point, accurate, and totally understandable.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Yeah, the troops in Belarus "won't attack anyone" just like the "joint military exercises" in February were just "exercises" and nothing more.
> 
> If there was ever a poster child for lying bullshit phrases, this is it.



Fully agree. It's interesting to watch Lukashenko walk the tightrope of maintaining his loyalty to Putin while trying to prevent Belarus military forces from being dragged directly into the war. 

That said, his efforts are probably of no merit. The simple fact that Russian forces used Belarus as a launching point for the invasion of Ukraine makes Belarus a co-belligerent. Lukashenko can try to claim that he didn't know Russia was planning to invade Ukraine...and that fig leaf might be enough. But pressure is growing on both sides and I'm pretty sure he's aware of how unpopular he is with the rank and file in Belarus. 

Frankly, I don't see Lukashenko lasting another year in power. He'll either be forced to use Belarusian forces in Ukraine, which will lead to mass unrest at home, or he'll have to distance himself from Putin, which would remove a main bulwark in his ability to stay in power. He backed the wrong horse and the impacts will likely hit him sooner because his position is so much more vulnerable than Putin's.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 17, 2022)

Not really Ukraine-related, except that another Su-34 has stoofed-in in Russia, hitting a block of flats in the process. Perhaps another indicator of poor maintenance standards within Russian air force?









Russian tower block in flames as aircraft crashes


A military plane went down in a residential area in the southern town of Yeysk, killing at least two.



www.bbc.com

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 17, 2022)

It's that Azov Bn. chick again! Stole a plane, then flew it into an apartment complex. There is no other logical explanation.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 17, 2022)

Don't forget her 5 year old, kids can be brutal!

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Don't forget her 5 year old, kids can be brutal!


Who do you think was her backseater?!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 17, 2022)

Or, it may have been the Ghost of Kyiv...

By the way, regarding Belarus being drug into the war - wishful thinking on my part, but what if Russia invades from the north and Belarus troops surrender en masse, leaving the Russians all alone? 

That would suck for the Red Army and leave Lukashanko off the hook!

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## pbehn (Oct 17, 2022)

Theres a lot of fantasy stuff on here, everyone knows that after holding the Olympics, the soccer world cup, the winter Olympics and Formula one rounds the Russians wouldnt dare, they would lose their place at sports top table. Believe it or not people have believed that sort of BS for years.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Who do you think was her backseater?!



Was the kids callsign Goose? Rooster?

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Screw him.


Agreed. Now, IF the AFU had full access to the latest catalogue of Israeli weapons and systems, what's on the top four wish list? My guess....

Iron Dome med-range SAM
David's Sling, long-range SAM
Arrow, anti-ballistic missile SAM
IAI Harop suicide drone

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## SaparotRob (Oct 17, 2022)

If Lukashenko wasn't a brutal thug with blood on his hands, he would be comical. He can't be happy about arming his populace. He can't be too thrilled his friend's army being in his country and oh, what an army it is. Russia has shown the world its Potemkin Army and Lukashenko's army probably isn't up to that level.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 17, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Was the kids callsign Goose? Rooster?


BoB

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> BoB

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

Rather than ABM systems, the best way to kill these Iranian suicide drones might be C-RAM.



https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-needs-c-ram-systems-to-defend-against-the-russian-missiles-taras-chmut/







US senators request to send to Ukraine Land-Based C-RAM Phalanx & Avenger air defense systems | Defense News July 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


US senators ask Secretary of Defense to send Avenger air defense systems to Ukraine




www.armyrecognition.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. Now, IF the AFU had full access to the latest catalogue of Israeli weapons and systems, what's on the top four wish list? My guess....
> 
> Iron Dome med-range SAM
> David's Sling, long-range SAM
> ...


I want *Iron Beam *too. C'mon, Israel and space lasers! Let's get Cold War on Putler's ass too. We'll see his T62s and raise him those Israeli souped up Super Phantoms.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I want *Iron Beam *too. C'mon, Israel and space lasers! Let's get Cold War on Putler's ass too. We'll see his T62s and raise him those Israeli souped up Super Phantoms.


I think anything that's defensive would be palatable to the more squeamish Israeli hawk (there are no doves). So, forget my suicide drones, but anything that could shoot down Russian missiles and drones OVER the territory of Ukraine should be diplomatically acceptable. Israel ambassador to Moscow foreign office.... _"um, metumtam, if you don't want our systems to engage Russian systems, then keep your systems in Russia, "_

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## GTX (Oct 17, 2022)

Footage captures drone strikes hitting central Kyiv in latest escalation in Ukraine


Several blasts hit the city centre early on Monday morning, followed by more explosions just after 8am local time, when many people were rushing to work or school.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Oct 17, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 17, 2022)

Russians using Telegram to buy fake certificates to avoid mobilisation


Offers to make employment and medical certificates for Russians looking to avoid mobilisation have spread across Telegram, retailing for between $245-$3600. Recent findings by risk intelligence firm




www.defenceconnect.com.au

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## MiTasol (Oct 17, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Interesting update on the move of Russian forces into Belarus:
> 
> _A joint Belarus-Russian troop grouping "has begun the task of protecting the Union state", says Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin, amid concerns in the West that it may be used as a launchpad for an offensive against Ukraine.
> 
> ...



To me about as reassuring as Putin's many statements in early Feb that he was not going to attack Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 17, 2022)

GTX said:


>



That never gets old.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 17, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> To me about as reassuring as Putin's many statements in early Feb that he was not going to attack Ukraine.


Or "it's all going to plan"?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Or "it's all going to plan"?



"I meant to do that."

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 17, 2022)

Looks like it's a bad time to be a recruiting officer in Russia.









Putin's head of Ukraine mobilisation campaign dies in 'suspicious circumstances'


Lt-Col Roman Malyk 'suspicious' death comes after a spate of attacks on mobilisation offices across Russia. His body was discovered near the fence of his home in a village in the Primorsky region




www.mirror.co.uk

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## manta22 (Oct 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Rather than ABM systems, the best way to kill these Iranian suicide drones might be C-RAM.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Man, does that thing eat ammo!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 17, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Looks like it's a bad time to be a recruiting officer in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That Azov mother/daughter team has been busy lately!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 17, 2022)

Me, when I want to blow up an apartment building, I simply light a cigarette ... it works every time, so I'm trai -- er, told. Yeah, told.

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## at6 (Oct 17, 2022)

It might time to slap sanctions on Tehran similar to the ones on Russia. If the Supreme Terrorist wants to supply the Kremlin Terrorist, cut him off at the knees economically.


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## Jabberwocky (Oct 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> It might time to slap sanctions on Tehran similar to the ones on Russia. If the Supreme Terrorist wants to supply the Kremlin Terrorist, cut him off at the knees economically.



Iran already has TIGHT sanctions on it. 

The Europeans have eased some since 2014, but they've replaced blanket sanctions with more targeted ones in the last few years. They just announced another targeted round this month.

The US exited the JPOA/JCPOA in May 2018 and the Trump Administration re-upped a lot of the earlier (Obama & Bush era) sanctions. Even before this, there was WAY too much uncertainty and lingering restrictions - particularly for export certificates - for US firms to do substantial business with Iran. In 2015, I helped with due diligence for a civil aerospace deal potentially worth 10s of billions of $. This never went through, because even then the big US banks and insurers were (rightly) nervous that a change of US government in 2016 would meant that sanctions would be re-imposed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> It might time to slap sanctions on Tehran similar to the ones on Russia. If the Supreme Terrorist wants to supply the Kremlin Terrorist, cut him off at the knees economically.



I think we're already been trying that since we've walked away from JCPOA.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 18, 2022)

The US, Britain and France seem to be lining up to levy more sanctions on Tehran due to the sale of drones to Russia. It remains to be seen how deeply/broadly any new sanctions impact the Iranian economy.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Man, does that thing eat ammo!


Indeed, over 4k rpm. And since it only takes one or two 20mm hits at 1k mps to kill one of these drones, the overkill rate must be massive. There needs to be a more accurate means to get relatively low cost drone kills. 

The most effective might be semiautonomous interceptor drones on constant patrol.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

Jabberwocky said:


> Iran already has TIGHT sanctions on it.


Have sanctions ever worked, maybe South Africa? While screwing up the availability of some arms, sanctions otherwise don’t seem to have any impact on Russia’s decisions. The best path with Iran is to seize upon the current uprising to pursue regime change. That might end up with someone worse, but the ensuing chaos would at least temporarily disrupt Iran’s foreign endeavours.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Have sanctions ever worked, maybe South Africa? The best path with Iran is to seize upon the current uprising to pursue regime change. That might end up with someone worse, but the ensuing chaos would at least temporarily disrupt Iran’s foreign endeavours.



One of the reasons we're dealing with such an obnoxious government in Iran is because of the 1953 regime change we Americans and Brits forced upon them.

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> One of the reasons we're dealing with such an obnoxious government in Iran is because of the 1953 regime change we Americans and Brits forced upon them.


Goes around, comes around. Reap what you sow. The Supreme Leader and his minions have no monopoly on obnoxious. We seem to be eternally blind to the potential of blowback.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Goes around, comes around. Reap what you sow. The Supreme Leader and his minions have no monopoly on obnoxious. We seem to be eternally blind to the potential of blowback.



Yep. It's why I'm skeptical of meddling in another country's governance. People have a habit of getting sore about shit like that.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yep. It's why I'm skeptical of meddling in another country's governance. People have a habit of getting sore about shit like that.


E.G. Ukraine not being happy with Russian attempts to govern them.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> One of the reasons we're dealing with such an obnoxious government in Iran is because of the 1953 regime change we Americans and Brits forced upon them.


True, but sometimes foreign interference in regime change works for the best. Look at the USA, without France interfering in 1776 et al, perhaps Washington is hanged from his famed apple tree and King Charles III would be ruling over the 13 colonies today….

Of course, participating in that regime change was a disaster for France’s government and society, with ten years of revolution and over 40,000 executed. So there is that lesson to be wary of as we consider helping the Iranian protests along.

Getting back to Ukraine, Canada was involved in their 2019 elections, advising on what was legit and what was not.






Canada announces support for elections and democracy in Ukraine - Canada.ca


Canada is a steadfast partner of Ukraine. Today, the Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of International Development, announced that Canada will contribute up to $24 million to support electoral reforms, election observers...




www.canada.ca










Canada launches observation mission for Ukraine elections - Canada.ca


This week, CANADEM officially launched Mission Canada, with 50 Canadian long-term observers beginning their work on the ground in Ukraine. The Canadians will observe all aspects of the electoral process leading up to, during, and following the presidential elections in Ukraine, including...




www.canada.ca

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

_
KYIV/MYKOLAIV, Ukraine, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Ukraine said Russia had destroyed almost a third of its power stations over the past week as Moscow stepped up a pre-winter campaign to strike infrastructure, a move the West says is a calculated attempt to disrupt and demoralise.

Missiles struck power generating facilities in a clutch of Ukrainian cities home to millions of people and several people were killed. Moscow acknowledged targeting energy plants, while Ukraine said water infrastructure had also been hit.


"The situation is critical now across the country ... the whole country needs to prepare for electricity, water and heating outages," Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian president's office, told Ukrainian television._









Russian commander admits situation is 'tense' for his forces in Ukraine


Ukraine said Russia destroyed almost a third of its power stations over the past week as Moscow stepped up a pre-winter campaign to strike infrastructure.




www.reuters.com





Every death from hypothermia there this winter will be a Russian war crime.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> E.G. Ukraine not being happy with Russian attempts to govern them.



One would think the Russians had learned something about this from the Afghanis.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Every death from hypothermia there this winter will be a Russian war crime.


Agreed. But Ukrainians are resilient people with very strong family and community ties, so I do not expect too many weather related fatalities within Ukrainian-held territory. Ukrainians in rural areas will need to rely on wood stoves for heat. Those in urban areas will need to be moved to larger buildings that can be heated through generators or other means.... buildings that must be defended against drone and missile attack.

Those Ukrainians in Russian-held territory are in trouble this winter as the ill-equipped and increasingly cutoff Russians are forced to live off the land.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 18, 2022)

Given that the potential for a winter humanitarian disaster in the former Yugoslavia prompted NATO intervention in the Balkans, I'm wondering if Russia's attacks against Ukrainian power generation may change the decision calculus in Mons? I'm not suggesting that NATO will go in all-guns-blazing to attack Russian forces. However, a humanitarian operation to provide power generation capabilities etc. could be implemented that would bring a modest number of non-combat troops on the ground in Ukraine. 

I'm sure NATO leaders are nervous about such a move for fear of escalation. However, the scale of the humanitarian problem may force their hand. It's one thing to have millions of refugees leaving Ukraine. It's another thing entirely for people to be dying in situ for lack of water, power or heat.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 18, 2022)

Nord Stream pipeline update:









Nord Stream blast 'blew away 50 metres of pipe'


Danish police say explosions damaged two pipelines built to bring Russian gas to Germany.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Nord Stream pipeline update:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It’s amazing to me that with so many SSNs, ASW ships/aircraft and undersea surveillance in the Baltic that no one saw anything. My guess is NATO knows full well what happened but doesn’t want to reveal how they know, so is playing dumb. Now if we can only find that Malaysian airliner than vanished off the earth.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 18, 2022)

Sanctions work. But very very slowly.









Russian railway is on the verge of collapse


The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing sp




www.railway.supply

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## at6 (Oct 18, 2022)

With myth of reprisals for the bridge blast now blown away, Finish destroying the damn bridge already.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> With myth of reprisals for the bridge blast now blown away, Finish destroying the damn bridge already.


Indeed. I hope that Biden has sent some ATACMS missiles for this very job.

On the plus side, something is definitely afoot with the AFU. There's a near total news blackout. MSM guesses are that the AFU are about to smash their way to Kherson City or make a dash for Melitopol. We'll know in the next 48-72 hours.



Who has the largest and most powerful army in eastern Europe? _Ne vy_, not you Russia. Not you.

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## manta22 (Oct 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Sanctions work. But very very slowly.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Was there a raid on Schweinfurt that we did not hear about?

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 18, 2022)

I was about to make a comment its the ball bearings again but you beat me.


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## Glider (Oct 18, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Looks like it's a bad time to be a recruiting officer in Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Think of the job description
Great Promotion prospects, Pension plan has its drawbacks

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## Denniss (Oct 18, 2022)

So a silence before the strom ?
also good to make the enemy nervous.

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## hawkeye2an (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV/MYKOLAIV, Ukraine, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Ukraine said Russia had destroyed almost a third of its power stations over the past week as Moscow stepped up a pre-winter campaign to strike infrastructure, a move the West says is a calculated attempt to disrupt and demoralise.
> 
> Missiles struck power generating facilities in a clutch of Ukrainian cities home to millions of people and several people were killed. Moscow acknowledged targeting energy plants, while Ukraine said water infrastructure had also been hit.
> 
> ...


Funny how their missiles hit where they want to, when they want to. All those apartment buildings got hit when they were aiming at military targets, RIIIIIIIIGHT !!!!!!

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## GTX (Oct 18, 2022)

NATO to supply Ukraine with anti-drone systems in coming days


Jens Stoltenberg says NATO will step up deliveries of air defence systems to Ukraine to help it defend itself amid Russia's swarming drone attacks in recent weeks.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 18, 2022)

Ukraine accuses Russia of 'kidnapping' two senior staff at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant


Ukraine says two Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant staff members have been seized by Russian forces, as energy infrastructure near Kyiv is attacked by missiles.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 18, 2022)

How Ukraine is playing its own version of the propaganda game
 

Not only has it proved surprisingly effective against better equipped Russian forces on the ground, Kyiv is also dealing Russia a blow in an information war playing out on the sidelines.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

Denniss said:


> So a silence before the strom ?
> also good to make the enemy nervous.


Yep. That’s why Lukashenko was making noises last week, in order pull AFU troops away from whatever they’ve got planned. No chance that worked.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 18, 2022)

Lukashanko was making noise to justify the troop buildup in Belarus as well as looking good to his master by making traditional Soviet noises.

Any incursion from the north will be met by a battle-hardened and well eqipped military that did not exist eight months ago and it will not end well for anyone that attempts it.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Any incursion from the north will be met by a battle-hardened and well eqipped military that did not exist eight months ago and it will not end well for anyone that attempts it.


Distraction of the AFU rather than incursion was the plan from the onset. Lukashanko needs all his soldiers at home to keep from ending up like Ceausescu.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 18, 2022)

Look for Kherson to fall soon (I hope):









Ukraine war: Russia admits Kherson 'tense' under shelling


The Russian army chief in Ukraine says Ukrainian shelling is causing many supply problems.



www.bbc.com

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 18, 2022)

from BBC
*German cybersecurity chief fired over Russia connections*Germany's cybersecurity chief, Arne Schönbohm, has been fired after allegations of being excessively close to Russia through an association he helped set up.




IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Mr Schönbohm has led the Federal Cyber Security Authority (BSI) - charged with protecting government communications - since 2016, but was accused by German media of having had links with people involved with Russian intelligence services.
His former employer, a private company called the Cyber Security Council Germany, is accused of having a subsidiary of a Russian firm set up by an ex-KGB officer as a member. The company denies any wrongdoing.
A spokesperson for Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said public trust in Mr Schönbohm's "neutrality and impartiality" had been damaged, but emphasised that the security chief would be "presumed innocent" while an investigation into the allegations was conducted.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> *German cybersecurity chief fired over Russia connections*[/h2]Germany's cybersecurity chief, Arne Schönbohm, has


I wonder how many Rasputin types with Russian connections are whispering into Olaf Scholz’ ear…. “_no Leopards for Ukraine…they can’t support them, they don’t have the skills, we‘ll endanger Germany, we must wait for the Americans to act first…“ _and so on.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Was there a raid on Schweinfurt that we did not hear about?


I was thinking the same thing. It just took 79 years to work. Sanctions do take time, I guess.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> On the plus side, something is definitely afoot with the AFU. There's a near total news blackout. MSM guesses are that the AFU are about to smash their way to Kherson City or make a dash for Melitopol. We'll know in the next 48-72 hours.



I've noted this over the last four or five days, that the news is very samo-samo, and that the information flow from the battlefields in both the Eastern and Southern fronts has dried up. Someone's laying doggo. I expect the Russians are wondering right now where the next shoe will drop. If Ukrainian intelligence has some info about where the recent call-ups are going, that might decide the thrust -- assuming there is one in store.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I've noted this over the last four or five days, that the news is very samo-samo, and that the information flow from the battlefields in both the Eastern and Southern fronts has dried up. Someone's laying doggo. I expect the Russians are wondering right now where the next shoe will drop. If Ukrainian intelligence has some info about where the recent call-ups are going, that might decide the thrust -- assuming there is one in store.


I’m optimistic, but I also fear that the news blackout is due to some offensive going tits up for the AFU and the good guys are now struggling to regroup somewhere away from the media, cameras and bloggers.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> from BBC
> *German cybersecurity chief fired over Russia connections*Germany's cybersecurity chief, Arne Schönbohm, has been fired after allegations of being excessively close to Russia through an association he helped set up.
> View attachment 691097
> IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
> ...



It makes me wonder (no, wait I have always wondered this) how many “agents” are in place throughout NATO. Look at the attempt to weaken NATO and its relationship with the US with the last 6 years. It’s just too convenient to be coincidence.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> It makes me wonder how many “agents” are in place throughout NATO.….


POTUS45 and whomever was pulling his strings comes to mind. No US politics, but the world and Ukraine‘s future dodged a bullet on 3 Nov 2020. If only Ukraine and the world were as lucky 12 Nov 1933 with the German general election. It’s amazing how domestic elections can have such an impact on global peace and security.

Anyway, back to Ukraine. Japan appears to be stepping up nicely. There are a few neutrals left, but not too many nations on Russia’s side.



https://ukranews.com/en/news/888815-japan-will-help-ukraine-with-energy-infrastructure-restoration-energy-ministry

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m optimistic, but I also fear that the news blackout is due to some offensive going tits up for the AFU and the good guys are now struggling to regroup somewhere away from the media, cameras and bloggers.



I think they've been pretty good about transparency on this. If they got beaten badly somewhere, I think we'd be hearing about if, for no other reason than they might need more of this or that bit of kit, or would have more civilian casualties or refugees. Plus, satellite imagery etc would tell the tale anyway.

And of course, no victorious war is an unbroken string of successes. Even after Falaise in France, the Germans put a beating upon the Allied paratroopers in Market-Garden two months later. There will always be setbacks, and Ukraine is not exempt from that.

I'm thinking that the silence has fallen for opsec reasons -- after misguiding the Russians at the beginning of Sept regarding eastern vs southern offensive, the Ukrainians could well be not broadcasting anything at all simply to change their pattern of behavior. I know I'd change up a successful approach if I thought the enemy might have gotten wise to it.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 18, 2022)

Hmm. Would DJT have left Zelenskey twisting in the wind after having refused to investigate JRB's meddling in Ukraine domestic corruption investigation of Burisma? The world will never know.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Compare this map of controlled territory to what we were seeing back in mid-March.






It is trending in the right direction at a good time, seasonally. Given that mud is about to shut down ops, the lack of a raging battle is understandable given the preparations for winter both sides must be making right now.

Here's the roughly-current map:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Hmm. Would DJT have left Zelenskey twisting in the wind after having refused to investigate JRB's meddling in Ukraine domestic corruption investigation of Burisma? The world will never know.



Why are you injecting American politics into this? We've already had plenty of warnings about introducing politics into this discussion. I care much less about your hypothetical than I do about what's happening on the ground there, myself.

Edit: as you may read below, I went off half-cocked here, and wasn't fair. I've apologized to Greg and do so to readers here as well.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Why are you injecting American politics into this? We've already had plenty of warnings about introducing politics into this discussion. I care much less about your hypothetical than I do about what's happening on the ground there, myself.


In this case the post would not have been made if an earlier post had not had a go at one side of US politics thus provoking the response.

As an outsider it is a bit humorous to see conspiracy theories as to what Ukraine would have been like if a US election had gone down a different
path and at the same time it is also tedious as none of these past events has any relevance to the current situation.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 18, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> In this case the post would not have been made if an earlier post had not had a go at one side of US politics thus provoking the response.



This is a fair point; because of the way the forum software works I saw 

 Greg Boeser
's reply before I saw the provocative post he was replying to. I stand by my sentiment, but apologize to Greg for my oversight and subsequent post which made him look like the one starting it all. I was wrong about that.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 18, 2022)

I was responding to a previous post, which suggested that our previous president was in the bag for Putin. 
That was in response to Der Adler, who wondered how many politicians/bureaucrats have been targeted/turned by Russian influence campaigns.
His post was in response to the firing of the German cybersecurity chief, who was found to have connections with Russian interests.
The war is not just in Ukraine. That is the physical battlefield, but the whole world is taking part, in one form or another. People who couldn't find Ukraine on a map are suffering because of this ill-conceived adventure by Putin. People around the world are facing hunger and higher energy costs due to the disruption of normal trade brought on by this "special military action". We know that Russian (and Soviet) intelligence has been targeting our leaders for the past century, that they are running misinformation and disinformation campaigns in every western nation, and that more than a few have been co-opted. Their methods are broad-ranging and subtle. And, sadly, there are people in every country willing to sell out their country for nothing more than a feeling of moral superiority.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> That was in response to Der Adler, who wondered how many politicians/bureaucrats have been targeted/turned by Russian influence campaigns.
> His post was in response to the firing of the German cybersecurity chief, who was found to have connections with Russian interests.
> The war is not just in Ukraine. That is the physical battlefield, but the whole world is taking part, in one form or another. People who couldn't find Ukraine on a map are suffering because of this ill-conceived adventure by Putin. People around the world are facing hunger and higher energy costs due to the disruption of normal trade brought on by this "special military action". We know that Russian (and Soviet) intelligence has been targeting our leaders for the past century, that they are running misinformation and disinformation campaigns in every western nation, and that more than a few have been co-opted. Their methods are broad-ranging and subtle. And, sadly, there are people in every country willing to sell out their country for nothing more than a feeling of moral superiority.



Right, but wondering about what-ifs using the last American presidential election seems pretty extraneous. Of course there's a political angle to this -- as with every war.

For what it's worth, I know what my answer to your question is, but that discussion isn't worth it, especially being that it's hypothetical.

I do apologize to you for my missing the genesis of the conversation and thereby making you look like the instigator.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 18, 2022)

No worries.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 18, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I was responding to a previous post, which suggested that our previous president was in the bag for Putin.
> That was in response to Der Adler, who wondered how many politicians/bureaucrats have been targeted/turned by Russian influence campaigns.
> His post was in response to the firing of the German cybersecurity chief, who was found to have connections with Russian interests.
> The war is not just in Ukraine. That is the physical battlefield, but the whole world is taking part, in one form or another. People who couldn't find Ukraine on a map are suffering because of this ill-conceived adventure by Putin. People around the world are facing hunger and higher energy costs due to the disruption of normal trade brought on by this "special military action". We know that Russian (and Soviet) intelligence has been targeting our leaders for the past century, that they are running misinformation and disinformation campaigns in every western nation, and that more than a few have been co-opted. Their methods are broad-ranging and subtle. And, sadly, there are people in every country willing to sell out their country for nothing more than a feeling of moral superiority.



Excuse me? Where did I mention the previous president?

Don’t drag me into this bullshit. I made a general statement about NATO member states and its relationship with the US which extends far more than just the US governement. I think there was an concerted effort by Putin, and the FSB to weaken NATO with players throughout the organization, and member nations.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 18, 2022)

Just because Ukraine has been quiet lately, doea not mean they are suffering setbacks.

Let's go back a few months and recall when chatter from Ukraine became quiet.

Within a few days, their feint and subsequent true offensive was unleashed.

The Ukraine military has been spectacular not only with their tactics and fighting form, but they are masters of the mind game.

Whatever hell they are about to unleash on the Red Army should be worth the wait.

Well, unless you happen to be in the Red Army - if that's the case, sucks to be you...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just because Ukraine has been quiet lately, doea not mean they are suffering setbacks.
> 
> Let's go back a few months and recall when chatter from Ukraine became quiet.
> 
> ...



I hope you're right. I also think that after the criss-cross Ukraine pulled on Russia in September, this silence on the part of Ukraine now is probably designed specifically to be unnerving. "Are they being quiet because there's nothing doing, or is this quiet another form of misdirection?" would be the question hopefully prompted. An unsure enemy is usually an off-balance enemy.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 18, 2022)

I was getting a little concerned as I saw a "few" articles seaming to the Russians pushing back the Ukrainians. However, if that was true Russian would be talking about it left and right, instead they also appear to be a little quiet.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I was getting a little concerned as I saw a "few" articles seaming to the Russians pushing back the Ukrainians. However, if that was true Russian would be talking about it left and right, instead they also appear to be a little quiet.



I've read those too, and don't doubt them. There's a couple of towns they're still driving for from my understanding.

It may be too that the Ukrainian offensive is slowing down because they're rotating troops back prepping for something. Hard to suss either way. That's perhaps the point, is what I'm thinking.


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## WARSPITER (Oct 18, 2022)

It's interesting that the Russia was at first on the offensive and is now only able to wait and react, not a good strategy in enemy
territory.

As a tank person noted years ago - It's alright to have reactive armour but it's even more alright to be making the other side use theirs
first. Something like that.

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## gumbyk (Oct 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s amazing to me that with so many SSNs, ASW ships/aircraft and undersea surveillance in the Baltic that no one saw anything. My guess is NATO knows full well what happened but doesn’t want to reveal how they know, so is playing dumb. Now if we can only find that Malaysian airliner than vanished off the earth.


You're assuming that the ordinance was delivered from outside the pipeline.
If the explosive was attached to a PIG (pipeline inspection gauge) then there's nothing that could have been done to prevent it, even if they knew it was happening.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 18, 2022)

In looking at the damage seen the the video, the pipe appears to have been blown outward.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 18, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It's interesting that the Russia was at first on the offensive and is now only able to wait and react, not a good strategy in enemy
> territory.



The biggest fruit of Ukraine's September offensive was not the recapture of territory, but the recapture of the initiative -- speaking operationally. No doubt many locals were saved from death or worse.

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## at6 (Oct 18, 2022)

Some times a news blackout is a good thing. If too much information is available, it works for Russian intel. The last thing anyone needs is for Russia to know what Zelensky is up to.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> Some times a news blackout is a good thing. If too much information is available, it works for Russian intel. The last thing anyone needs is for Russia to know what Zelensky is up to.


The other good thing for Ukraine is that no one in the Russian military seems to know what Putin is up to.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 19, 2022)

Remember that Ukraine doesn't use Russian tactics. The Ukrainians probe enemy defenses at a variety of points. They pull back if an enemy position is too strong or after finding out what they need to know. These "retreats" are then reported by the Russians as major Russian victories. 
The Russians seem to use tactics borrowed from Zap Brannigan.

I think the Ukrainians are being silent just to screw with the orcs' minds.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 19, 2022)

As mentioned before, the Ukrainians hold their cards close to their chest.

And let's remember that Putler is working from Hitler's playbook. He's a delusional asshole who calls all the shots and uses propaganda and terror as a tool to achieve his goals.
His adversary is free-thinking, fluid both on the learning curve and in tactics.

Spin the "way back wheel" to WWII and see how the Allies beat Hitler.
If you've read the book, you know how this will end.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Remember that Ukraine doesn't use Russian tactics. The Ukrainians probe enemy defenses at a variety of points. They pull back if an enemy position is too strong or after finding out what they need to know. These "retreats" are then reported by the Russians as major Russian victories.
> The Russians seem to use tactics borrowed from Zap Brannigan.
> 
> I think the Ukrainians are being silent just to screw with the orcs' minds.


Ah yes, Zapp Brannigan. The man (well, acrylic drawing) who said, "Never trust a neutral, At least with your enemies
you know where you stand."

Applying this sort of thinking to current Russian methods does seem appropriate.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

at6 said:


> The last thing anyone needs is for Russia to know what Zelensky is up to.


Zelenskyy is a superlative politician, global spokesman, leader of his people and procurer for Ukraine’s military, but he’s no general. When this is over I hope CinC AFU General Valerii Zaluzhnyi gets some credit. It’s what Zaluzhnyi is up to that should worry the Russians.









Zaluzhnyi: We dispelled myth of Russian army’s invincibility, and now we bring back what is ours


Ukrainians have withstood a powerful enemy blow, dispelled the myth of the Russian army’s invincibility, and are now bringing back what is theirs and moving forward. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other good thing for Ukraine is that no one in the Russian military seems to know what Putin is up to.



They don't seem to know what they're doing themselves, much less what Putin's doing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

_KYIV, Oct 19 (Reuters) - One of the most senior Russian-appointed officials in occupied Ukraine said the Ukrainian army was poised to begin an attempt to retake the southern city of Kherson and urged residents to evacuate for their safety.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the local Russia-backed administration, made a video appeal after Russian forces in the area were driven back by 20-30 km (13-20 miles) in the last few weeks. They risk being pinned against the western bank of the 2,200-km-long Dnipro river that bisects Ukraine.

[...]

Stremousov said Kherson and especially its right bank could be shelled by Ukrainian forces, adding that residents who left would be given accommodation inside Russia.

"I ask you to take my words seriously and to interpret them as a call to evacuate as fast as you possibly can," he said.

"We do not plan to surrender the city, we will stand until the last moment."

The TASS news agency reported the overall Russian-installed chief of Kherson region as saying about 50,000-60,000 people would be evacuated to Russia and to the left bank of the Dnipro river in the next six days._









Russia appeals for evacuation ahead of battle for Ukraine's Kherson


One of the most senior Russian-appointed officials in occupied Ukraine said the Ukrainian army was poised to begin an attempt to retake the southern city of Kherson and urged residents to evacuate for their safety.




www.reuters.com





The shelling has been going on since around midnight yesterday local time from how the article reads.

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just because Ukraine has been quiet lately, doea not mean they are suffering setbacks.
> 
> Let's go back a few months and recall when chatter from Ukraine became quiet.
> 
> ...


ZSU are on the move in Kherson area - RU internet is reporting major assault by Ukrainian forces.... at least one brigade with artillery and air support. Wait.... it cant be true, Ukrainian Air Force has been totally destroyed by RU at least three times since February....

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _"We do not plan to surrender the city, we will stand until the last moment."_


I supose that, in russian neolanguage, mean that they plan to surrender _en masse_.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

The inability of the Russian air force, the largest in Europe, to seize and hold air superiority over occupied Ukraine will go down in history as a major cause of Russia’s failure.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

It's starting:









Ukraine war: Russians start leaving Ukraine's Kherson city


Russian-appointed officials say staff and civilians will leave Kherson city because of Ukraine's offensive.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Zelenskyy is a superlative politician, global spokesman, leader of his people and procurer for Ukraine’s military, but he’s no general. When this is over I hope CinC AFU General Valerii Zaluzhnyi gets some credit. It’s what Zaluzhnyi is up to that should worry the Russians.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Zaluzhnyi is already recognized as the military architect of Ukraine's successes. But it's worth noting that Zelensky appointed him as CinC, promoting him ahead of several other more senior officers who were available. Zelensky wanted someone who wasn't bogged down in a dogmatic approach to campaigning and Zaluzhnyi has more than fulfilled the trust placed in him by Zelensky. It's been a great example of political-military integration and unity of effort.

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Zaluzhnyi is already recognized as the military architect of Ukraine's successes. But it's worth noting that Zelensky appointed him as CinC, promoting him ahead of several other more senior officers who were available. Zelensky wanted someone who wasn't bogged down in a dogmatic approach to campaigning and Zaluzhnyi has more than fulfilled the trust placed in him by Zelensky. It's been a great example of political-military integration and unity of effort.


blody well said...

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

Another example of the personal tragedies being inflicted on Ukraine. This 36 year-old doctor had just dropped her son off at daycare and was killed on her way to work at a children's hospital where she's a cancer specialist:

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

Ukrainians reporting incredible combat debute of IRIS-T - 5/5 missiles targeting Kiev has been succesfully intercepted.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

For the people within the 4 annexed regions of Ukraine, welcome to the "freedoms" of Russia:

_MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and gave additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia.

Putin didn't immediately spell out the steps that would be taken under martial law, but said his order was effective starting Thursday. His decree gives law enforcement agencies three days to submit specific proposals and orders the creation of territorial defense forces in the four annexed regions.

"We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia's security and safe future, to protect our people," Putin said in televised remarks at the start of a Security Council meeting. "Those who are on the frontlines or undergoing training at firing ranges and training centers should feel our support and know that they have our big, great country and unified people behind their back."

The upper house of Russia's parliament was set to quickly seal Putin's decision to impose martial law in the annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Draft legislation indicates it may involve restrictions on travel and public gatherings, tighter censorship and broader authority for law enforcement agencies.

Putin also didn't provide details of the extra powers the heads of Russian regions will have under his decree.

In a signal his moves could have broad restrictions for people living in Russia, his decree states that the types of measures envisaged by martial law could be introduced in Russia.

The Russian leader also ordered the establishment of a Coordination Committee to increase interactions between government agencies in dealing with the fighting in Ukraine that he continued to call a "special military operation."_

_Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin's order doesn't anticipate the closure of Russia's borders, state news agency RIA-Novosti reported._


Of course, the rest of the world fully recognizes that nations only declare martial law when everything's "going to plan." Was that churlish of me?

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> For the people within the 4 annexed regions of Ukraine, welcome to the "freedoms" of Russia:
> 
> _MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and gave additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia.
> 
> ...


signs of agony??

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## GrauGeist (Oct 19, 2022)

The definition of martial law to the rest of the world:
"_things are bad, we have to clamp down until the situation gets better._"

In Russia: "_we're winning!_"

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

This article adds some additional info that I wasn't tracking. In addition to declaring martial law in the 4 annexed regions, Moscow is also raising security levels (aka clamping down on the civilian population) within Russia, particularly in border regions. 









Under-pressure Putin 'doubles down' with security decree


Vladimir Putin is tightening security across Russia, with the introduction of different security levels.



www.bbc.com

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 19, 2022)

Just like a good tyrant.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 19, 2022)

What is up with his creepy praetorian guard?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 19, 2022)

Do this martial law truely make any diference on any given day in elsewere Rusia?

No gathering, censorship and broad authority for law enforcement agencies.

Seems a normal day in the Rodina!

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Do this martial law truely make any diference on any given day in elsewere Rusia?
> 
> No gathering, censorship and broad authority for law enforcement agencies.
> 
> Seems a normal day in the Rodina!


Has Russia ever not had a secret police terrorizing its people? 






Third Section of His Imperial Majesty's Own Chancellery - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org












Okhrana - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org









Chronology of Soviet secret police agencies - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





What is this flaw in their national character that while nearly every other European descendant nation has progressed to a reasonable level of state police held under democratically elected control? CSIS might monitor my web browsing for terror plots, but I needn’t worry about RCMP arresting me for speaking my mind against the PM. Don’t the Russians want the same rights and freedoms?


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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What is up with his creepy praetorian guard?



They're busily procuring new helmets to help turn their frowns upside-down. Welcome to the new, cuddlier, funnier form of stormtrooper (with apologies to 

 GTX
who posted this image in the Quotes and Jokes thread earlier this week...it just seemed too appropriate not to reuse):

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## GTX (Oct 19, 2022)

Possibly some alarmist sensationalist 'reporting' here...I hope:









Fears Mad Vlad on brink of detonating nuke over Black Sea in show of force


FEARS are growing that Vladimir Putin will launch a nuclear show of force by detonating a deadly warhead over the Black Sea. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace dashed to Washington for crisis talks yest…




www.thesun.co.uk


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## GTX (Oct 19, 2022)

Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine


The illegally annexed regions of Ukraine come under a newly declared martial law, although the exact details of the directive by Vladimir Putin remain unclear.




www.abc.net.au

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has Russia ever not had a secret police terrorizing its people?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Uh, didn't Trudeau declare martial law to break up a trucker's strike last winter?

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## GTX (Oct 19, 2022)

Here's what we know about why Russia is reportedly using 'kamikaze' drones, and where they are using them


Ukraine officials have called them "kamikaze" drones. But what exactly are these drones, and why are they quickly surpassing missiles as Russia's weapon of choice?




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 19, 2022)

„Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty


The Estonian weekly Eesti Ekspress interviewed the heads and several employees of Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s state security agencies. This is what they had to say regarding Russia.




ekspress.delfi.ee

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Possibly some alarmist sensationalist 'reporting' here...I hope:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's the Sun...you can guarantee alarmist and sensationalist "reporting."

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## GrauGeist (Oct 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Possibly some alarmist sensationalist 'reporting' here...I hope:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A very sensational write-up, but Putler has nothing to gain by detonatung a nuke over the Black Sea and runs the risk of accidently triggering a response.

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## GTX (Oct 19, 2022)

Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia


Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles and more drones, a move that is likely to infuriate the United States and other Western powers.




www.reuters.com

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has Russia ever not had a secret police terrorizing its people?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


their ruling caste is elected / legitimized by terror since.... ever - RU has 0 (none, null) democratic traditions - they switched from hyper-autocratic form of government directly to quasi-mob type structures of communism than again to hyper-autocratic with Vlad as a fake tsar. For them marshal law is business as usual - the same day just different name.

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## J_P_C (Oct 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's the Sun...you can guarantee alarmist and sensationalist "reporting."


is anybody, ever treated The Sun as a credible source? if yes it has to be done by obvious mistake....

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## Crimea_River (Oct 19, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Uh, didn't Trudeau declare martial law to break up a trucker's strike last winter?



Yes, we were all sent to our rooms with no Timmy's donuts or hockey for a week.

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## MiTasol (Oct 19, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> The other good thing for Ukraine is that no one in the Russian military seems to know what Putin is up to.



Sometimes I think even Putin does not know what he is up to

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 19, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> Yes, we were all sent to our rooms with no Timmy's donuts or hockey for a week.


No hockey?!!! 😱

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## fubar57 (Oct 19, 2022)

4th game into the season, Canucks blow 4 two goal leads.....its over


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia
> 
> 
> Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles and more drones, a move that is likely to infuriate the United States and other Western powers.
> ...


Is a naval and air blockade of Iran being considered?


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 19, 2022)

Ayallolah: We will trade missiles for nukes.
Putin: Done!

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 19, 2022)

The scary part of that is I could see it happening.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 19, 2022)

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

The Iranian government generally won't do anything without a quid pro quo. I'm unsure why they're doing this now, or what benefits they hope to garner from a weakened Russia. The two nations have worked alongside each other in Syria supporting Assad's regime in Syria, so there may be something hidden in that cesspool.

The Israelis, who have had a working (if at times a semi-hostile) relationship with the Russians again in Syria, seem to be irked by the two nations drawing closer. I suspect there's a lot going on behind the scenes that's beyond my ken.

There's also the fact that Iran has many years of experience dodging sanctions, and so Russia may be giving Iran business as a return favor that just so happens to supply some needs of their own as well?

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

Worth a watch...some real front-line reporting:

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## GrauGeist (Oct 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Worth a watch...some real front-line reporting:



If the Russians' probing is that predictable, they should set up an ambush for the next scouting party.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the Russians' probing is that predictable, they should set up an ambush for the next scouting party.


Wouldn’t a scouting party’s job be to reconnoitre and report back rather than engage?

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## MiTasol (Oct 19, 2022)

yes but if they are wiped out then they can't report and their vodka primed commander will assume the area is heavily defended.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Wouldn’t a scouting party’s job be to reconnoitre and report back rather than engage?


Depends on several factors: if the scoutung party is purely reconnoitering to identify enemy positions and such, then yes, avoiding contact would be preferable.
But if the scouting parties are probing the enemy defenses to judge reaction (amount of response, amount of force encountered, etc.), then engaging is necessary.

The Ukrainians need to have some mobile artillery on standby for the next probe, hammer the eff out of them and then quickly relocate the artillery elsewhere.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Wouldn’t a scouting party’s job be to reconnoitre and report back rather than engage?



My stepdad Bob was Marine recon in Vietnam. His description of their mission was "snooping and pooping". They had three firefights in his thirteen months there, because their mission was LRRP, not probing or fighting. His expressed opinion was that if they got in a firefight they'd gotten off the rails.

If these Russians were doing deep-prowl, then yeah, they fucked up. If they were probing defenses, as Grau points out, firing is necessary. We'd have to know their orders in order to assess their success or failure. 

It looks more to me like an encounter fight, judging from how the Ukrainians were also a little surprised at the Russian presence.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 19, 2022)

With friends like these...









US reminds pro-Putin Hungary it's a Western ally


The US embassy hits back at anti-American remarks from Viktor Orban's government over the Ukraine war.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> With friends like these...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's a shame NATO doesn't have an eviction clause. Turkey and Hungary both do not belong, based on the NATO charter's requirement for dedication to democratic principles.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukrainians need to have some mobile artillery on standby for the next probe, hammer the eff out of them and then quickly relocate the artillery elsewhere.


Perhaps they have it but don't wanna reveal that they have it?


Thumpalumpacus said:


> It looks more to me like an encounter fight, judging from how the Ukrainians were also a little surprised at the Russian presence.


If the russian come 5-6 times a day shouldn't be a surprise, no?


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My stepdad Bob was Marine recon in Vietnam. His description of their mission was "snooping and pooping". They had three firefights in his thirteen months there, because their mission was LRRP, not probing or fighting. His expressed opinion was that if they got in a firefight they'd gotten off the rails.


That had to be very nerve cracking. A small platoon deep in the enemy rear with little chance of support or rescue.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 19, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukrainians need to have some mobile artillery on standby for the next probe, hammer the eff out of them and then quickly relocate the artillery elsewhere.


Here’s a summary of Ukraine’s self propelled artillery. Some serious kit here.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Self-propelled_artillery

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 19, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That had to be very nerve cracking. A small platoon deep in the enemy rear with little chance of support or rescue.



Right. Because Marine recon companies were much smaller than normal -- 79 enlisted, 2 officers -- they couldn't afford to get into a scrap. Any shooting at all revealed his company's presence, which defeated the purpose of the mission.

Their patrols lasted 30-45 days; a couple ran longer. 

Bob was the radioman, so he especially hated firefights, because with the aerial he always drew fire.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 20, 2022)

My Stepdad was a Marine and his name was also Robert.
Except he was in Korea and 12 divisions of Chinese showed up for his birthday at Chosin.

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## J_P_C (Oct 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> My Stepdad was a Marine and his name was also Robert.
> Except he was in Korea and 12 divisions of Chinese showed up for his birthday at Chosin.


it was big birthday party than.... respect

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 20, 2022)

Russia setting conditions to justify retreating from Kherson.


Are they also setting conditions for nuking Ukraine?

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 20, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> That had to be very nerve cracking. A small platoon deep in the enemy rear with little chance of support or rescue.





Thumpalumpacus said:


> Because Marine recon companies were much smaller than normal -- 79 enlisted, 2 officers -- they couldn't afford to get into a scrap. Any shooting at all revealed his company's presence, which defeated the purpose of the mission.


LRRP vets I've talked with never said anything about company or even platoon size missions. They mentioned going "into the field" as a squad or reinforced squad. They said the smaller their unit, the safer they felt. They tended to be rather closed mouthed about their experiences until they had a few brews down. Brews I was glad to buy.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> My Stepdad was a Marine and his name was also Robert.
> Except he was in Korea and 12 divisions of Chinese showed up for his birthday at Chosin.



Had he been recon, they'd never have known he was there!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russia setting conditions to justify retreating from Kherson.
> 
> 
> Are they also setting conditions for nuking Ukraine?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> LRRP vets I've talked with never said anything about company or even platoon size missions. They mentioned going "into the field" as a squad or reinforced squad. They said the smaller their unit, the safer they felt. They tended to be rather closed mouthed about their experiences until they had a few brews down. Brews I was glad to buy.



Bob's company went into the field fairly fully-manned at least once, to my recollection, but yeah, smaller was almost always better. Less trail left behind etc.

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 20, 2022)

Maybe the Russian Army is falling back to Siberia to lull them into a trap?

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## wlewisiii (Oct 20, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 20, 2022)

Not only weapons are needed.

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 20, 2022)

This ones made me laugh !!!

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## buffnut453 (Oct 20, 2022)

A sphincter-flexing moment for the RAF RJ crew:









Russian jet released missile near RAF aircraft over Black Sea


The unarmed plane was in international airspace when the incident happened last month, a minister says.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Oct 20, 2022)

Ukraine residents told not to use major appliances after 'Russian terror' hits power stations


Ukraine urges residents to drastically restrict their electricity consumption to cope with the destruction of power stations by the Russian army as winter approaches.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> A sphincter-flexing moment for the RAF RJ crew:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Rusia blames a malfunction. Given what we known about the VKS it could even be true.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 20, 2022)

If there was ever a group needing a visit from Mosad, AFU special ops, etc. it‘s these buggers.

Ukraine war: Iranian drone experts 'on the ground' in Crimea - US

Find their accommodations. Kill them in their beds. Iran needs to be shown that arming Russia to attack Europeans including NATO applicants has fatal consequences.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If there was ever a group needing a visit from Mosad, AFU special ops, etc. it‘s these buggers.
> 
> Ukraine war: Iranian drone experts 'on the ground' in Crimea - US
> 
> Find their accommodations. Kill them in their beds. Iran needs to be shown that arming Russia to attack Europeans including NATO applicants has fatal consequences.


Looks like a job for the Azov mother/daughter team!

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## GrauGeist (Oct 20, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Rusia blames a malfunction. Given what we known about the VKS it could even be true.


Wonder what Russia's excuse would have been had they actually shot down the RJ...

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## manta22 (Oct 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> My Stepdad was a Marine and his name was also Robert.
> Except he was in Korea and 12 divisions of Chinese showed up for his birthday at Chosin.


Coincidentally, my first wife's first husband was at the Chosin Reservoir too. Not many people realize there was an Army unit there as well as the Marines. He was with the 31st Regimental Combat team on the North side of the reservoir where the Chinese struck first. He had a Purple Heart with seven clusters when he retired. Here is his obituary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...lusters/7bdd50c6-fc4f-4594-affe-928772450c1f/ . He said that "in Korea, every time he stood up, somebody shot him in the ass." 

He was an interesting man; he was in the US Embassy when Eisenhower sent the Marines into Beirut in 1959. His letter to Ella (his then-wife and two young boys who had evacuated to the US Embassy in Rome) is full of detail on what was actually going on at the time it was happening and it is far better than what is in Wikipedia on the "1958 Lebanon Crisis". If anyone is interested, I'll PM a copy. The first few pages are badly typed on a typewriter ribbon that is shot but by page 3 he has put in a new ribbon and legibility improves markedly. The actual event happening sure isn't very close to what you hear on the news media! 

To save time, I'll just attache it here as a .PDF file.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Wonder what Russia's excuse would have been had they actually shot down the RJ...


There‘d be no Russian pilots to explain themselves after the escorting Typhoons clear the skies.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 20, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Coincidentally, my first wife's first husband was at the Chosin Reservoir too. Not many people realize there was an Army unit there as well as the Marines. He was with the 31st Regimental Combat team on the North side of the reservoir where the Chinese struck first. He had a Purple Heart with seven clusters when he retired. Here is his obituary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...lusters/7bdd50c6-fc4f-4594-affe-928772450c1f/ . He said that "in Korea, every time he stood up, somebody shot him in the ass."
> 
> He was an interesting man; he was in the US Embassy when Eisenhower sent the Marines into Beirut in 1959. His letter to Ella (his then-wife and two young boys who had evacuated to the US Embassy in Rome) is full of detail on what was actually going on at the time it was happening and it is far better than what is in Wikipedia on the "1958 Lebanon Crisis". If anyone is interested, I'll PM a copy. The first few pages are badly typed on a typewriter ribbon that is shot but by page 3 he has put in a new ribbon and legibility improves markedly. The actual event happening sure isn't very close to what you hear on the news media!
> 
> To save time, I'll just attache it here as a .PDF file.


This is the thread here on the forum of my Stepdad's passing.






My Stepdad


I'm a little late in posting this, as I just haven't been in the mood to deal with it, to be honest. But back on January 25th, my Stepdad passed away. It's been difficult to have so many friends and family passing away lately, and this hits really close to home. My Stepdad was approaching 80...



ww2aircraft.net

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## GrauGeist (Oct 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There‘d be no Russian pilots to explain themselves after the escorting Typhoons clear the skies.


I beleive that the "malfunction" encounter with the RAF RJ was an unescorted mission.
The RAF is now escorting the flights.

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## at6 (Oct 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It's the Sun...you can guarantee alarmist and sensationalist "reporting."


Tucker Carlson in print?

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## J_P_C (Oct 21, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 21, 2022)

_
Ukraine appears poised to deliver another crucial blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort with a counteroffensive to take back Kherson, which was the first major Ukrainian city seized by Russia after its invasion in February. 

Ukraine has blacked out all media on its operations around the southern city this week, as it did ahead of a successful counteroffensive in the northeast last month. Experts studying the war said all signs point to a major offensive in the coming days, with Russia already signaling its potential retreat. 

Ukrainian victory in Kherson, which is the only regional capital that has been captured by Russian forces, could set the direction of the rest of the war, said John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

"Strategically, operationally and tactically, it'll send a signal that Russia can't hold ground in Ukraine, and the path to victory for Ukraine is pretty much assured. The timeline's still in question, but the path to victory is pretty assured," he said. _



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3697701-ukraine-poised-for-crucial-blow-to-putin-in-battle-for-kherson/

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Looks like a job for the Azov mother/daughter team!


The ladies strike again? You play with fire, you'll get burned.









10 Iranians killed in Ukrainian strikes - report


The report comes as American and Ukrainian officials warn that Iranians are training Russians to use Iranian drones in Crimea.




www.jpost.com

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)

Teen fighting Vladimir Putin says he has no regrets despite Ukraine ordeal

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)

Putin's commander in Syria is now leading Russia's forces in Ukraine. Here's what that means


General Sergei Surovikin, dubbed by some as “General Armageddon” after his role in the Syria bombing campaign, is the new leader of Russian forces in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)

Iran sending personnel to Crimea to help Russian forces use drones, US says


The White House says it believes Iranian military staff have been sent to Crimea to help Russian forces use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukraine, as scheduled power outages began.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Iran sending personnel to Crimea to help Russian forces use drones, US says
> 
> 
> The White House says it believes Iranian military staff have been sent to Crimea to help Russian forces use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukraine, as scheduled power outages began.
> ...


Now this is where Mosad will come in handy whilst still having plausible deniability. The moment those Iranians pick up a phone or make any communications, they're dead.

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## Snautzer01 (Oct 21, 2022)

I bet that before soon we will see UKR script kiddies filling their drones with a bit of a bang and have a tournament.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 21, 2022)

Having worked at Stuttgart for a few years, this does my little heart good. Absolutely awesome to see this "boring" logistics work acknowledged:









What is EUCOM’s Ukraine Control Center? | Air & Space Forces Magazine


The U.S. European Command stood up EUCOM Control Center Ukraine at Ramstein Air Base to rapidly deliver weapons to Ukraine.




www.airandspaceforces.com

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## ThomasP (Oct 21, 2022)

From various sources:

'Satellite images show the Russians/Wagner Group building kilometers long anti-tank fortification near Herske' [in Luhansk Oblast about 10-15 miles south of Sverodonetsk]

From CNN:

"RIA/FAN, a Russian tabloid, published a map on Wednesday claiming the Wagner group would continue building their 'line' until it stretches east from the Russian-Ukraine border to Kreminna, and then south to Svitlodarsk." [this would result in a line about 135 miles long]

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## buffnut453 (Oct 21, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> From various sources:
> 
> 'Satellite images show the Russians/Wagner Group building kilometers long anti-tank fortification near Herske' [in Luhansk Oblast about 10-15 miles south of Sverodonetsk]
> 
> ...



Wonder if it's All Quiet on the Western Front?

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## fubar57 (Oct 21, 2022)

The new Линия Мажино

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## ThomasP (Oct 21, 2022)

On the one hand, it would put the Wagner Group in a convenient location for targeting.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 21, 2022)

Wouldn't it be funny if the Russians are going to all the trouble to build this "line" and the Ukrainians attacked elsewhere?

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)

Zelenskyy accuses Russia of planning to blow up a major dam


Ukraine's president warns hundreds of thousands of people would be at risk of flooding, including in the city of Kherson, if Russia destroys the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam, which is the biggest facility of its kind in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)

In photos: While Ukraine sleeps, a seemingly abandoned factory comes to life with the smell of fresh bread


This bakery is one of two large-scale operations left open in the Ukrainian-held part of the Donetsk region, most of which is under Russian occupation. Others closed due to fighting damage or because their electricity and gas were cut.




www.abc.net.au

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## wlewisiii (Oct 21, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Oct 21, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



When this war is over I don’t know how Ukraine is going to be able to forgive Russia for this. This will be a permanent severing of two once close cousins, akin to the South and North Koreans.

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## GTX (Oct 21, 2022)



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## Denniss (Oct 21, 2022)

Let them waste valuable resources on their Maginot line. We all know what happened to the original.

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## at6 (Oct 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin's commander in Syria is now leading Russia's forces in Ukraine. Here's what that means
> 
> 
> General Sergei Surovikin, dubbed by some as “General Armageddon” after his role in the Syria bombing campaign, is the new leader of Russian forces in Ukraine.
> ...


Now if only someone could eradicate that Son of a Moscow Brothel Woman.

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## Glider (Oct 22, 2022)

at6 said:


> Now if only someone could eradicate that Son of a Moscow Brothel Woman.


Don't be so harsh on the Moscow Brothel Woman.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 22, 2022)

_*The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack.* Ukraine's Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are "quite actively" transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River's west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson's banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## GrauGeist (Oct 22, 2022)

The Russians seem to think an offensive will come at Kherson, but I'm watching the probing going on along the front between Zaporizhia and Donesk, where Russian held land is narrowest.
If an offensive is launched there, a drive to Mariupol would effectively split Russian forces in two and allow Ukrainian elements a three sided front around Kherson as well as getting in range of Crimea for better artillery coverage.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Russians seem to think an offensive will come at Kherson, but I'm watching the probing going on along the front between Zaporizhia and Donesk, where Russian held land is narrowest.
> If an offensive is launched there, a drive to Mariupol would effectively split Russian forces in two and allow Ukrainian elements a three sided front around Kherson as well as getting in range of Crimea for better artillery coverage.


The Ukrainans rarely do what is expected or suggested. So, while a continued slow grind will be seen in the south, anywhere but Kherson is where we’ll see the next big AFU push.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 22, 2022)

May the Force be with Ukraine. Luke is.

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## Dimlee (Oct 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



The girl speaks Russian while her Dad - Ukrainian. 
Somewhere, in the occupied Crimea, Russian-speaking criminals of various ethnicities prepare another horde of imported drones, instructed by Farsi-speaking instructors.

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## at6 (Oct 22, 2022)

Don't you mean Farsi speaking butchers?

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## Dimlee (Oct 22, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Really cool. My respect for Estonians, they are punching above their weight. By the way, Estonian expertise was invaluable in creating the cyber defence system in Ukraine and creating the foundation of the digital government.

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## Dimlee (Oct 22, 2022)

Old howitzer + Starlink + UAV. And brave Polish volunteer.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/starlink-has-become-indispensable-for-ukrainian-gunners/ 
Original interview (Google translated):








„Zaakceptowaliśmy ryzyko i skupiliśmy na robocie”. Polak w działaniach artylerii w Donbasie [WYWIAD]


**Defence24 rozmawia z weteranem walk w ukraińskim Donbasie, który walczył w artylerii w czasie rosyjskiego uderzenia na Siewierodonieck i Lisiczańsk. Czym charakteryzowała się codzienna praca artylerzysty? Jaka panowała atmosfera w czasie kiedy ukraińskie pozycje w Donbasie przypominały worek...




defence24-pl.translate.goog

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## GTX (Oct 22, 2022)

Old fears of nuclear threat in central Europe revived by Russian rhetoric


The war is triggering fears across Europe, and these are especially felt in countries like Poland and Romania that border Ukraine and would be highly vulnerable in case of a radiological disaster.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 22, 2022)

He used to be called Putin's chef. In reality, he was the secret head of the president's private army


Yevgeny Prigozhin, an elusive Russian oligarch linked to an election-meddling troll farm, now openly admits he founded the private military company doing Vladimir Putin's bidding in Ukraine. But his brazen new approach could spell trouble for the president.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 22, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 22, 2022)

Kherson residents told by pro-Russian officials to evacuate as Ukraine prepares offensive


Russian-installed authorities in Ukraine tell Kherson residents to leave "immediately" ahead of an expected advance by Ukrainian troops waging a counteroffensive to recapture the city.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Kherson residents told by pro-Russian officials to evacuate as Ukraine prepares offensive
> 
> 
> Russian-installed authorities in Ukraine tell Kherson residents to leave "immediately" ahead of an expected advance by Ukrainian troops waging a counteroffensive to recapture the city.
> ...


I’m surprised to see the crowds of Ukrainians on the boats crossing the Dnieper fleeing Kherson. Are these collaborators, ethnic Russians? They don’t appear to be coerced or kidnapped under arms. I’d be hiding to wait the AFU‘s arrival.









More flee Ukraine's Kherson as Russian occupiers renew warnings


Russian occupation authorities in the Ukrainian city of Kherson told civilians on Saturday they should leave immediately because of what they called the tense military situation as Ukraine's forces advance.




www.reuters.com

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 22, 2022)

Perhaps they saw what happened to Mariupol.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m surprised to see the crowds of Ukrainians on the boats crossing the Dnieper fleeing Kherson. Are these collaborators, ethnic Russians? They don’t appear to be coerced or kidnapped under arms. I’d be hiding to wait the AFU‘s arrival.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They are most likely trying to get out of harm's way.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 22, 2022)

It could also be a dog-and-pony show for the cameras.

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## ThomasP (Oct 22, 2022)

US COMINT and HUMINT indicates that Russia is planning on removing the residents in staged movements (timed and measured, not staged as in faked) in order to allow increased battlefield anonymity and movement of troops and equipment within the same area and time period. The intent is to delay and prevent the Ukrainian forces from having clear and unfettered targeting of the Russian forces as they retreat, as they figure the Ukrainians will be unwilling to risk hitting civilians by accident.

The staged evacuation is also intended to show the Russian people that Russia cares about the pro-Russian population in the Kherson region and is protecting them against the Ukrainians, hopefully boosting morale in the occupied areas - Crimea in particular as their is apparently widespread near-panic in Crimea and doubt re Russia's ability to protect them, as well as rising anger at the Russian government's bungling of the war.

There is also indication that the Russians are systematically looting works of art and other things of value, hiding and transporting the items amongst the evacuation.

The source for the above is usually accurate.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 22, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> their [_sic_] is apparently widespread near-panic in Crimea and doubt re Russia's ability to protect them,


And well placed panic, since once Kherson city is taken there's not much urban area before Armiansk, Crimea, 130 km to the southeast, a two hour drive or 2-3 days march down modern roads.









Kherson to Armiansk







goo.gl

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## GrauGeist (Oct 23, 2022)

And while all the chaos is ensuing in Kherson, Mariupol is a ripe fruit for the picking...

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m surprised to see the crowds of Ukrainians on the boats crossing the Dnieper fleeing Kherson. Are these collaborators, ethnic Russians? They don’t appear to be coerced or kidnapped under arms. I’d be hiding to wait the AFU‘s arrival.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Acording to this they are collaborators and Russians.








'Not a civilian evacuation': Collaborators and Russians leaving Kherson, resident says


Russian officials claim they are trying to remove all civilians from the city, the focus of a major counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops. But in a detailed interview, one resident told Sky News that the evacuation is not designed for them.




news.sky.com

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## at6 (Oct 23, 2022)

Find a way to destroy the Russian gas facilities so that Moscow freezes. Then watch as they stack "Putin Popsicles" like firewood in the street.

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## J_P_C (Oct 23, 2022)

this time Irkutsk and Su-30, both pilots are reported as KIA.

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## J_P_C (Oct 23, 2022)

little bit dated considering foliage conditions but worth to watch..

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 23, 2022)

_*Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective. *The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have completely abandoned their positions in Charivne and Chkalove (both approximately 33km northwest of Nova Kakhovka), and Russian officers and medics have reportedly evacuated from Beryslav. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are also removing patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, likely to free up hospital beds for Russian military casualties that may result from the withdrawal across the river. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that some Russian elements are preparing Kherson City for urban combat, while other servicemembers continue to flee the city via the ferry operating in the vicinity of the Antonivsky Bridge. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on October 22 that Russian forces completed construction of a barge bridge alongside the damaged bridge and forecasted that the barge bridge would become a critical crossing point for Russian forces as Ukrainian forces advance toward Kherson City. A large part of the Kherson City population has also reportedly left the city.

[...]

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reiterated that Russian military leadership has moved their officer corps across the river but left newly-mobilized men on the western bank of the Dnipro River as a detachment left in contact. Using such inexperienced forces to conduct a delaying action could prompt a Russian rout if Ukrainian forces choose to press the attack, as ISW previously assessed. One Russian milblogger noted that the situation in Kherson Oblast is dire for Russian troops, noting that it is "virtually impossible" for Russia to evacuate troops from the first lines of defense and that only two questions remain: how to withdraw the final front line of forces, and how to explain the withdrawal to the Russian population._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





Leaving raw recruits without leaders on the wrong side of the river? What genius thought _this_ up?

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## Glider (Oct 23, 2022)

Meanwhile, back in Russia, Smoking is still a serious threat to your wellbeing.



Major explosion kills three at gunpowder factory in Russia

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## fubar57 (Oct 23, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/flying-with-nato-awacs-1.6619471

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## buffnut453 (Oct 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _*Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective. *The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have completely abandoned their positions in Charivne and Chkalove (both approximately 33km northwest of Nova Kakhovka), and Russian officers and medics have reportedly evacuated from Beryslav. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are also removing patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, likely to free up hospital beds for Russian military casualties that may result from the withdrawal across the river. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that some Russian elements are preparing Kherson City for urban combat, while other servicemembers continue to flee the city via the ferry operating in the vicinity of the Antonivsky Bridge. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on October 22 that Russian forces completed construction of a barge bridge alongside the damaged bridge and forecasted that the barge bridge would become a critical crossing point for Russian forces as Ukrainian forces advance toward Kherson City. A large part of the Kherson City population has also reportedly left the city.
> 
> [...]
> 
> ...



Yeah, if I was a smart, young Russian soldier who was part of the "holding action," I'd look for every opportunity to surrender. 

As to the question of why so many civilians are evacuating, I agree with the idea that they are trying to avoid the fighting. It's also worth remembering that about two-thirds of the pre-war population of Kherson left the city before the Russians captured it. Thus, a proportion of the remaining population may actually be Russia-leaning (though I still doubt that's a majority, not least once they get to see up-close the less savoury traits of the Russian Army).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Yeah, if I was a smart, young Russian soldier who was part of the "holding action," I'd look for every opportunity to surrender.
> 
> As to the question of why so many civilians are evacuating, I agree with the idea that they are trying to avoid the fighting. It's also worth remembering that about two-thirds of the pre-war population of Kherson left the city before the Russians captured it. Thus, a proportion of the remaining population may actually be Russia-leaning (though I still doubt that's a majority, not least once they get to see up-close the less savoury traits of the Russian Army).



Yeah, I bet the % of Russian-leaning civilians is disproportionately high compared to other Ukrainian cities. And I don't doubt that many thus "evacuated" not only don't want to leave, but will never see their city again. My suspicion is that they will be bargaining chips .. or forced-labor after being "disappeared".

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## fubar57 (Oct 23, 2022)

When this is all said and done and Ukraine has reclaimed all lost territory, hold a true "do you want to stay with us or be Russian" referendum in Crimea

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## SaparotRob (Oct 23, 2022)

What does it take to get Russia out of the Security Council? 
I write this rhetorical question from pure frustration.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 23, 2022)

Dissolve the UN?
The UN was designed to preserve the status of the major Allied powers after WW2.

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## GTX (Oct 23, 2022)

Russia’s military aircraft exports are headed for a nosedive


The military reputation of the Russian Aerospace Forces has been badly tarnished — and that is rubbing off on the aircraft.




www.defensenews.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 23, 2022)

Are the operational failure rates of the Su-35 mentioned above similar to Allied combat jets or they way above, say, what F-16 or Eurofighter units would have?


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## GTX (Oct 23, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Oct 23, 2022)

Customer: How is Su-35 against AA?
Russian Arms Dealer: Uh.....we throw in free air freshener, good to go. You buy now?
Customer: Yes...I bye now

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Are the operational failure rates of the Su-35 mentioned above similar to Allied combat jets or they way above, say, what F-16 or Eurofighter units would have?


"Operational failure rates." You have to define that better. Crashes? Aborts? Incidents that involve damage to aircraft? In the west it's very defined. In the US we break it down by "mishaps."

This was from a USN site but I'm sure it's similar to the USAF







Now with that defined, I doubt, based on sorties flown per capita in a non combat environment (which we will probably never have access to) and we've seen so far, the SU-35 has a safety record not comparable to the west. It's evident by the poor showing of the Russian AF, they are having issues with maintenance, sustainment and operations. The Russians aren't the only ones crashing Su-35s






BREAKING A Chinese Air force Su-35 has crashed in Guangxi, China - AIRLIVE


A Chinese Air force Su-35 has crashed. Reports claimed it has been shot by Taiwan air defence system. The CCP’s People’s Liberation Army Sukai 35 fighter plane crashed in Guangxi. Reports claimed that the fighter jet was flying over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. A video shows...




www.airlive.net

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## SaparotRob (Oct 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> "Operational failure rates." You have to define that better. Crashes? Aborts? Incidents that involve damage to aircraft? In the west it's very defined. In the US we break it down by "mishaps."
> 
> This was from a USN site but I'm sure it's similar to the USAF
> 
> ...


Well, I didn't know how to ask it but you did answer my question. I just wanted to be sure before I laughed my ass off at the Russian aerospace industry.

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Well, I didn't know how to ask it but you did answer my question. I just wanted to be sure before I laughed my ass off at the Russian aerospace industry.


Looks like they built a little over 100. Egypt flies them too. I haven't heard much about the Su-35 being operated there

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## SaparotRob (Oct 23, 2022)

They can't get them to work?


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## fubar57 (Oct 23, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> BREAKING A Chinese Air force Su-35 has crashed in Guangxi, China - AIRLIVE
> 
> 
> A Chinese Air force Su-35 has crashed. Reports claimed it has been shot by Taiwan air defence system. The CCP’s People’s Liberation Army Sukai 35 fighter plane crashed in Guangxi. Reports claimed that the fighter jet was flying over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. A video shows...
> ...


I'm just going from the border of East coast China to the border of Guangxi Province. That jet travelled 579kms/360miles to reach the border

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## J_P_C (Oct 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They can't get them to work?


Egypt has drop the deal after comparable tests with Rafale. There are indications that ex Egyptian machines have been used by RU to cover drone deal with Iran.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 23, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> I'm just going from the border of East coast China to the border of Guangxi Province. That jet travelled 579kms/360miles to reach the border
> 
> View attachment 691623​


That's a long way to go in order to crash...

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## fubar57 (Oct 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's a long way to go in order to crash...


Pilot: I've been hit
Ground Control: Land at nearest airport. There are a half dozen by the coast
Pilot: Hang on, I just opened a new air freshener

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## MiTasol (Oct 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> Meanwhile, back in Russia, Smoking is still a serious threat to your wellbeing.
> 
> 
> 
> Major explosion kills three at gunpowder factory in Russia



The report says "The Russian Investigative Committee - seen as similar to the FBI in Russia - is conducting a probe into the Saturday blast, say reports."

I know what their answer will be "Its the Azov team again".

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 23, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Egypt has drop the deal after comparable tests with Rafale. There are indications that ex Egyptian machines have been used by RU to cover drone deal with Iran.


Started searching on line and I'm seeing the same. Interesting.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 23, 2022)

I'd also read about Egypt deciding against the -35s due to threatened American third-party sanctions. Not sure how true that is.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 23, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> The report says "The Russian Investigative Committee - seen as similar to the FBI in Russia - is conducting a probe into the Saturday blast, say reports."
> 
> I know what their answer will be "Its the Azov team again".



Actually, they're conducting a criminal investigation into the breaking of flight regulations. Apparently the aircraft was on a test flight. I wonder if the crew went outside their briefed test plan?

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 23, 2022)

They certainly conducted an unauthorized landing.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That's a long way to go in order to crash...



Rather like the old joke about why Jaguars had two engines. It was so that, if one engine failed, the other could keep the Jag flying to the scene of the crash.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 23, 2022)

Ukraine war: The cost of occupation in Kherson region


As Ukraine retakes territory, villagers tell the BBC about their precarious life under Russian rule.



www.bbc.com

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## swampyankee (Oct 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What does it take to get Russia out of the Security Council?
> I write this rhetorical question from pure frustration.



Without dissolving the UN, it's likely impossible. The UN charter was written, as mentioned by Greg, to make sure that nobody could interfere with the actions of the US, UK, France, China, and the USSR (and its successor state, Russia). The Security Council could not, for example, condemn the US's putzing around in Central and South America or the UK's or France's actions against independence movements in their colonies (or the USSR's mucking about in Hungary and Czechoslovakia).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 23, 2022)

To sum up, learning from both the UN and NATO, the lesson is that treaties should have expulsion clauses. Get a prenup.

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## MiTasol (Oct 23, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Rather like the old joke about why Jaguars had two engines. It was so that, if one engine failed, the other could keep the Jag flying to the scene of the crash.



That applies to nearly all twins over a certain age - before the requirement to be able to climb on one engine became a requirement.


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## J_P_C (Oct 24, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Started searching on line and I'm seeing the same. Interesting.


Egyptians stated that Su-35 targeting system is far inferrior to this carried by Rafale and is totally volnurable to Rafale's electronic warfare equipment.

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## ThomasP (Oct 24, 2022)

Go Israel !

"The Israeli Air Force has reported the destruction of an Iranian drone factory located in Syrian territory in a bombing raid on Saturday."

"Israel destroys Iranian drone manufacturing plant in Syria"

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## Dimlee (Oct 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What does it take to get Russia out of the Security Council?
> I write this rhetorical question from pure frustration.


This is one of the dirty secrets of world diplomacy, actually. Russian Federation has never gone through the proper procedure of joining the UN as other new countries, for example, Croatia. Instead, it was given "automatically" the seat in the UN with all rights, privileges and material assets belonging to the USSR. Why so? Because there was a silent consensus that the new regime in Moscow should be pleased and not annoyed (many talks about avoidance of the Versaille syndrome). Just to remind that RSFSR (the true predecessor of the Russian Federation) was not a member of the UN.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> And while all the chaos is ensuing in Kherson, Mariupol is a ripe fruit for the picking...


True, but looking at the map, Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com I think Melitopol, in order to cut off Crimea and flank those fleeing from Kherson is the more likely next objective.

However taking Mariupol would cut off a massive Russian force between it and those AFU moving south of Kherson. So, you may be right.

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## Dimlee (Oct 24, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Without dissolving the UN, it's likely impossible. The UN charter was written, as mentioned by Greg, to make sure that nobody could interfere with the actions of the US, UK, France, China, and the USSR (and its successor state, Russia). The Security Council could not, for example, condemn the US's putzing around in Central and South America or the UK's or France's actions against independence movements in their colonies (or the USSR's mucking about in Hungary and Czechoslovakia).


The trick was that modern Russia (Russian Federation) usurped that successor status.

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## Dimlee (Oct 24, 2022)

Elon is such an _enfant terrible_ sometimes. But Starlink on the frontline is a real thing.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 24, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Elon is such an _enfant terrible_ sometimes. But Starlink on the frontline is a real thing.



He's the Howard Hughes of our time. And just as likely to end up expiring in his 90s as a germaphobe recluse.









Crazy Aviators: The Eerie Similarities Between Billionaire Howard Hughes And Elon Musk


As billionaire Elon Musk faces a legal reckoning, a good guide for his troubles are the twists and turns in Howard Hughes's storied but turbulent business career




www.forbes.com

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## buffnut453 (Oct 24, 2022)

So, according to Russia's intel chief, there's been absolutely no rhetoric from Russia about the use of nuclear weapons. Truly remarkable (watch the video...it's eye-watering in its "alternate world-view"):









Ukraine war: Russian spy chief blames West for nuclear tension


The head of Russia's foreign intelligence service falsely accuses the West of nuclear war threats.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> True, but looking at the map, Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com I think Melitopol, in order to cut off Crimea and flank those fleeing from Kherson is the more likely next objective.
> 
> However taking Mariupol would cut off a massive Russian force between it and those AFU moving south of Kherson. So, you may be right.



A drive to the coast to bisect the Russian lines is the obvious move. We'd have to see the road-net in order to get a getter idea of the axis of advance.

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## Glider (Oct 24, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> Egyptians stated that Su-35 targeting system is far inferrior to this carried by Rafale and is totally volnurable to Rafale's electronic warfare equipment.


I am pretty sure that India said a similar thing about the Su30 vs Rafale. The Su30 radar could be easily defeated by the Rafale, whereas the Rafale could continue to track the Su30 despite its countermeasures.

Working on the basis that the up-to-date, or modernised Nato aircraft are at least as good as the Rafale. The Russian aircraft would be at serious risk in combat

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## GrauGeist (Oct 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> A drive to the coast to bisect the Russian lines is the obvious move. We'd have to see the road-net in order to get a getter idea of the axis of advance.


Mariupol is a major port city with main highways running along the coast as well as several heading inland.

With pressure on Kherson, an advance into Mariupol would not only cut off a Russian supply center, but deny Russian logistics that are using the coastal highway as a route for supply and troop movements.
It would also effectively cut Russian held territory in two, creating a bad situation for the Russians in the southern (Kherson) area, surrounding them with no way out but through Crimea, which is a massive choke point.
From Mariupol, Ukraine force can push toward Melitopol, putting them in range of Crimea (the Kerch area in particular) as well as a partial encirclement of the Kherson region.

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## manta22 (Oct 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So, according to Russia's intel chief, there's been absolutely no rhetoric from Russia about the use of nuclear weapons. Truly remarkable (watch the video...it's eye-watering in its "alternate world-view"):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A very poor performance from an Intelligence Chief. He needs to work on his body language. A person who talks without looking at you is not communicating with you, he is just reciting.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 24, 2022)

manta22 said:


> A very poor performance from an Intelligence Chief. He needs to work on his body language. A person who talks without looking at you is not communicating with you, he is just reciting.



Well, the definition of an extrovert intelligence officer is that he/she looks at YOUR shoes when they speak to you.

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## GTX (Oct 24, 2022)

'Dirty bomb' claim stokes fears of fresh escalation in Ukraine war


The UK and US dismiss Russian claims that Ukraine is planning "provocations" involving detonating a "dirty bomb" amid fierce fighting in the east of the country.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 24, 2022)

'Aggressive genocide incitement': Ukraine vows to try Russian TV presenter who called for killing of children


Russian state TV presenter Anton Krasovsky appears to have crossed a line too far for the Kremlin, after he said Ukrainian children who saw Russians as occupiers should be killed.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Oct 24, 2022)

Ukraine war: Russian forces preparing to defend Kherson, says Ukrainian spy chief


Ukraine had suggested some Russian units were leaving Kherson, a city that fell early in the war.



www.bbc.com





I guess it all depends on the quality of forces that Russia is sending to Kherson to reinforce it.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Mariupol is a major port city with main highways running along the coast as well as several heading inland.
> 
> With pressure on Kherson, an advance into Mariupol would not only cut off a Russian supply center, but deny Russian logistics that are using the coastal highway as a route for supply and troop movements.
> It would also effectively cut Russian held territory in two, creating a bad situation for the Russians in the southern (Kherson) area, surrounding them with no way out but through Crimea, which is a massive choke point.
> ...



The main reason I'd favor attacking Melitopol would be that it's further from the Russian border and would tax Russian logistics proportionally. It would also have three potential avenues of exploitation, leaving the Russians to guess which one would be chosen. But yes, a drive on either city would split Russian forces, endanger the holdouts at Kherson, and as a bonus, using the Danish-donated Harpoon Bloc IIs, either objective would be a big hamper on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov.

For those reason, either axis would be a good move if the Ukrainians can deliver it with enough forces to make it stick against the inevitable counterattacks. The difficulty with both is that with the Russians in strength around Zaphorizhye, the Ukrainians will either have to break through the Russians there directly, or offer a flank in the case of an attack on Mariupol. So attacking and securing Zaphorizhye has got to be an important preliminary.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: Russian forces preparing to defend Kherson, says Ukrainian spy chief
> 
> 
> Ukraine had suggested some Russian units were leaving Kherson, a city that fell early in the war.
> ...



Ukrainian intel reports that Kherson is being reinforced by the recent class of conscripts. No news agency I've read can confirm that report, though, so apply salt.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 24, 2022)

Or simply bypass Zaporizhehya, leaving it cut off and isolated.
The quality of Russian forces are such, that encircling and containing a city would can be an option, considering how poorly supplied they are, both in munitions as well as food.

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## GTX (Oct 24, 2022)

Why Russia's sticking with a military strategy that's never worked before


Russia's new overall commander knows he cannot defeat the Ukrainian Army in the field — so he's turned to an old doctrine to terrorise and cower the Ukrainian people instead., writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au





Interesting comment: "...the Russian objective of drawing the war out for as long as possible. Putin clearly believes the West will eventually lose interest in the war...", especially when potentially combined with the noises coming out of the US Republican party:









Cheney slams ‘pro-Putin’ McCarthy over Ukraine funding threat


House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy this week said the U.S. should not issue a “blank check” for further Ukraine funding.




www.politico.com





Putin must be thinking "just got to hold in a little bit longer...and then my useful idiots can do my bidding..."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Or simply bypass Zaporizhehya, leaving it cut off and isolated.
> The quality of Russian forces are such, that encircling and containing a city would can be an option, considering how poorly supplied they are, both in munitions as well as food.



Perhaps. It depends on what they've got for men and materiel in Zaporizhehya, as well as their ability to counterattack such a Ukrainian _kessel_ from outside.


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## GTX (Oct 24, 2022)

Defenders of Ukraine Downs 2 Ka-52 Alligator Attack Helicopters, Destroys 4 Ammunition Depots of russia’s Troops In South on Saturday | Defense Express


Ukrainian forces also killed 47 Russian troops and destroyed two tanks, a Grad missile launcher, an anti-tank missile complex, and 16 armored vehicles on October 22. The situation in the operational zone on the Southern Bug axis has not changed significantly




en.defence-ua.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

If this report is accurate -- and while _the Hill_ is very good on American politics it is weaker in international reportage -- it starts looking like the fight for Kherson could be a slugfest:

_Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine's military intelligence arm, told a local newspaper that Moscow is only creating an "illusion" of a retreat by evacuating civilians from Kherson, a Ukrainian regional capital that Russia currently controls.

As Ukrainian forces make steady advances on Kherson, Budanov told the online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda that Russia is moving out cash, Russian-installed authorities and injured people, but he noted that Moscow is simultaneously moving in military resources.

"They are conducting this crazy information campaign that 'we care about people' and so on," Budanov told the outlet. "That is, they create the illusion that everything is gone. And at the same time, on the contrary, they bring new military units there and prepare the streets of the city for defense."

[...]

Last week, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the newly installed commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, said "difficult decisions" may be necessary in Kherson, adding that Russian officials would "preserve the lives of the civilian population and our military personnel as much as possible."

"He prepares the groundwork so that, if a decision is made to surrender the city, or they will simply be kicked out, the groundwork will be prepared and somehow smooth it all out," Budanov told Ukrainska Pravda of Surovikin's remark. 

"But at the same time, I cannot tell you that right now they are fleeing from Kherson," Budanov continued. "No, there is no such thing."

Branislav Slantchev, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, told The Hill last week that observers had seen the Russians simultaneously evacuating military assets and moving troops in.

[...]

"The troops positioned there are supposed to be among the better ones that they have," said Slantchev. "And so what they seem to be doing, they're moving out, saving these troops and equipment. And they're just rushing [national guard] troops, these recently mobilized people and things like this to the front lines to hold the front while the evacuation can be completed."_

As I posted above, this doesn't seem like a good idea to me, using raw recruits as a covering force for a retreating army. Hopefully the Ukrainians can close the crossings and egress before the Russians evacuate their better troops.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 24, 2022)

To be honest, they should avoid being drawn into a door-to-door situation, flow around them and isolate the city and keep the offensive momentum going.

Seiges are tough to break from a defender's position.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> To be honest, they should avoid being drawn into a door-to-door situation, flow around them and isolate the city and keep the offensive momentum going.
> 
> Seiges are tough to break from a defender's position.



The big problem with that is "How many civilian deaths are we willing to accept in the process?" That is, of necessity, a political question for Zelenskyy to answer as he instructs his generals on what to do.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> To be honest, they should avoid being drawn into a door-to-door situation, flow around them and isolate the city and keep the offensive momentum going.
> 
> Seiges are tough to break from a defender's position.


But that will be the case? I mean if Rusia is withdrawing veterans/profesional soldiers and brining in conscripts to Kherson for defense, how long it will take for conscripts to surrender?

Are those veterans/profesional soldiers reinforcing other sectors? If the RF think that a one two is in the oven like early september, that could make sense.

But what if Ukrainia is playing a one two three. Feint in Kherson, feint in other sector (Mariupol, Melitopol,...) and then punch elsewere (even Kherson itself).

BTW, a urban war with a determined enemy could be hell for civilians but a siege won't be nice either.


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## SaparotRob (Oct 24, 2022)

Putin pulls out his less awful troops to defend Crimea. Putin sends a crap load of people he doesn't need or want (not really Russian enough) to the right bank. They're speed bumps. Putin blows the dam. Dead Ukrainians on both sides. No rearguard action. No problem.
When has Vladolph Putler and his circle of sycophants ever cared about humanity?

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## GrauGeist (Oct 24, 2022)

Door-to-door fighting in a large city can be a time consuming, resorce heavy, meat grinder while also putting civilians at great risk.

Seiging a city requires less resources and I am more than certain that the Ukrainian Army will allow civilians safe passage to safety.

So far, the greatest weapon in Ukraine's Arsenal, is their mobility. At this time, they cannot afford to get sucked into a Stalingrad V2.0 situation.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 24, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> When has Vladolph Putler and his circle of sycophants ever cared about humanity?


Never.

But Ukrainia yes, so the must be careful in the choices.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Door-to-door fighting in a large city can be a time consuming, resorce heavy, meat grinder while also putting civilians at great risk.
> 
> Seiging a city requires less resources and I am more than certain that the Ukrainian Army will allow civilians safe passage to safety.
> 
> So far, the greatest weapon in Ukraine's Arsenal, is their mobility. At this time, they cannot afford to get sucked into a Stalingrad V2.0 situation.


Neither one is a good choice indeed.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 24, 2022)

Won't be nice if all those ASRAAM could be used by Ukrainia Air Force in the MiG-29 or Su-27?









British Fighters Launch Record Number Of ASRAAM Dogfight Missiles


The looming expiration of a batch of heat-seeking missiles allowed Typhoons and F-35Bs to conduct live-fire drills on an unprecedented scale.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 24, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Knowing nothing about Ukraine resources and not wanting to over-stretch what they have, do they have the capabilities to launch an amphibious assault?


I sense that Crimea itself is lightly defended and now difficult to support. Take a cargo ship, load it with troops? Resupply will need to the thought out. Russia no longer controls the sea nearby. An older article on the topic below, though overland.









A Ukrainian assault on Crimea – pipedream or future reality?


For many, the thought of a Ukrainian assault on Crimea is farfetched. However, recent analysis has demonstrated how a litany of Russian failures have opened up new pathways for the Ukrainian milita




www.defenceconnect.com.au





Paywall free version archive.ph

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## Crimea_River (Oct 24, 2022)

The Russian mention of dirty bombs posted by GTX earlier today is worrying. Sounds like a pretext for them to use one and blame it on the Ukrainians. The West's response, if one were set off, would be interesting.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 24, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> The Russian mention of dirty bombs posted by GTX earlier today is worrying. Sounds like a pretext for them to use one and blame it on the Ukrainians. The West's response, if one were set off, would be interesting.


I‘m not convinced that the West would do anything beyond further sanctions and lethal aid if Russia set off a dirty bomb. I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack. Russia could launch a new Holodomor with Einsatzgruppen and gas chambers et al, publicly murdering Ukrainian women and children by the hundreds of thousands, stacking the bodies like sandbags in front of CNN and BBC cameras, and still NATO won’t do more than increase arms support to Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s war to win or loose, though maybe by that point Germany will finally release Leopard 2s.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I‘m not convinced that the West would do anything beyond further sanctions and lethal aid if Russia set off a dirty bomb. I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack. Russia could launch a new Holodomor with Einsatzgruppen and gas chambers et al, publicly murdering Ukrainian women and children by the hundreds of thousands, stacking the bodies like sandbags in front of CNN and BBC cameras, and still NATO won’t do more than increase arms support to Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s war to win or loose, though maybe by that point Germany will finally release Leopard 2s.



Not sure I agree with your view regarding use of nuclear weapons. I think that's a red line, if not for NATO then at least for the US and UK. I suspect it rather depends on how big the weapon is and how far the fallout spreads. If there is substantial risk of fallout crossing a national border into NATO territory, then I think we will see action by the Organization. If it's a smaller weapon, then independent action by a coalition of the willing may well take place. 

There are a lot of options where such a coalition could help Ukraine without actually engaging Russian ground forces. For example, deploying troops to defend Ukraine's border with Belarus would potentially free a substantial quantity of Ukrainian soldiers for operations elsewhere. Adding in-country, albeit rear-area, logistics support would also greatly accelerate available supplies into Ukraine (the cell that USEUCOM set up is doing great work...but having actual logistics specialists in-country would be hugely helpful). Establishing a no-fly zone to protect those in-country deployed coalition forces over western Ukraine would also have a big pay-off and limit Russia's freedom of action. Then there's augmenting air defences around Kyiv and other major cities, closer ISR overwatch of Russian forces, resources to help rebuild liberated areas....there really are a lot of options for direct, in-country support without actually engaging Russian troops on the ground. 

Of course Russia and Belarus will claim this is evidence of NATO showing its true colours. However, I think the gloves need to come off if Russia does initiate any kind of nuclear event in Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 25, 2022)

Once again, I refer to the Budapest Memorandum in the event of a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

Russia can bluster and toss red flags left and right but if they actually commit an atrocity with WMDs, they will become a pariah state in the eyes of not only the world, but their patrons.

The Russians come across as delusional idiots, but behind the curtain, they know that anything beyond conventional warfare will be political death amongst their peers.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

Ukraine war: UN nuclear watchdog to inspect Ukrainian sites


The visit comes after Russian accusations that Kyiv is planning to use so-called dirty bombs.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I‘m not convinced that the West would do anything beyond further sanctions and lethal aid if Russia set off a dirty bomb. I honestly don’t think there is anything Russia can do within Ukraine that would provoke NATO to attack Russia. NATO is defensive, a full on nuclear strike to flatten Kyiv will not get the consensus to attack. Russia could launch a new Holodomor with Einsatzgruppen and gas chambers et al, publicly murdering Ukrainian women and children by the hundreds of thousands, stacking the bodies like sandbags in front of CNN and BBC cameras, and still NATO won’t do more than increase arms support to Ukraine. This is Ukraine’s war to win or loose, though maybe by that point Germany will finally release Leopard 2s.



It should be noted that no NATO country is required to receive NATO approval for any retaliatory measures. They could choose to forgo NATO approval and go it alone.

I do agree that a dirty bomb almost certainly won't set off any nuclear response. I also think, however, that it could set up conditions for a no-fly zone or other stepping-stone to a full-scale confrontation.

All this Russian talk must be pushing the Ukrainians to drive harder to seal off the Russians in Kherson, so that Russian troops will be trapped in any hypothetical irradiation scenario.

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## J_P_C (Oct 25, 2022)

and more bad news for Kadyrov...

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 25, 2022)

7500 (1400 of them tanks) is a lot.
I remember someone made some napkin calculations crossing visually confirmed data with (leaked) actual loses of a Russian battle group (or however Russians call it) and the conclusion was that visually confirmed represented about 70% of real loses. If this estimation still holds, Russians may have lost about 10.000 vehicles including 2000 tanks.

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## Zipper730 (Oct 25, 2022)

I figure that, in the event that a dirty-bomb goes off, it would be more likely than not that it'd be a false-flag by the Russians than something by the Ukrainians

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

_KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's nuclear energy operator said Tuesday that Russian forces were performing secret work at Europe's largest nuclear power plant, activity that could shed light on Russia's claims that Kyiv's forces are preparing a "provocation" involving a radioactive device.

[...]

Energoatom, the Ukrainian state enterprise that operates the country's four nuclear power plants, said Russian forces have carried out secret construction work over the last week at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.

Russian officers controlling the area won't give access to Ukrainian staff running the plant or monitors from the U.N.'s atomic energy watchdog that would allow them to see what they are doing, Energoatom said in a statement issued Tuesday.

Energoatom said it "assumes ... (the Russians) are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at (the plant)." It said there were 174 containers at the plant's dry spent fuel storage facility, each of them containing 24 assemblies of spent nuclear fuel.

"Destruction of these containers as a result of explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometers (miles) of the adjacent territory," the company said._









Ukraine alleges Russian dirty bomb deception at nuke plant


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator said Tuesday that Russian forces were performing secret work at Europe's largest nuclear power plant, activity that could shed light on Russia’s claims that Kyiv’s forces are preparing a “provocation” involving a radioactive device.




 apnews.com

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## GrauGeist (Oct 25, 2022)

I suppose those Russian dumbasses haven't considered that a "dirty nuke" would create a fallout cloud that'll eventually drift eastward into Russia proper.

Adding to that, Ukraine forces aren't in control of the facility - so a claim that Ukraine caused the explosion would be seen as total bullshit.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suppose those Russian dumbasses haven't considered that a "dirty nuke" would create a fallout cloud that'll eventually drift eastward into Russia proper.



Putin doesn't care. The Russian model is that the people only exist to enable the State. If the State needs to prove its case by setting of a nuclear explosion, then any resultant casualties are simply supporting the State in its actions, and hence are true and noble citizens. 




GrauGeist said:


> Adding to that, Ukraine forces aren't in control of the facility - so a claim that Ukraine caused the explosion would be seen as total bullshit.



Moscow will simply claim that the explosion resulted from Ukrainian artillery fire (just as they've done for every single Russian weapon that hit a civilian target). I suspect HIMARS would be identified as the system that fired on the facility, hence the US can be brought into the blame game.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It should be noted that no NATO country is required to receive NATO approval for any retaliatory measures. They could choose to forgo NATO approval and go it alone.


I doubt that would happen though. Poland was afraid to give over some MiG-29s without everyone's backing, and Germany is still mollycoddling about Leo2 tanks. These are not the sort of nations that would unilaterally attack Russia.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt that would happen though. Poland was afraid to give over some MiG-29s without everyone's backing, and Germany is still mollycoddling about Leo2 tanks. These are not the sort of nations that would unilaterally attack Russia.



They won't act unilaterally but they may join a coalition of the willing. Ok, Germany may not but I think Poland would...indeed Poland MUST participate as a key axis for coalition forces and materiel to get into Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Putin doesn't care. The Russian model is that the people only exist to enable the State. If the State needs to prove its case by setting of a nuclear explosion, then any resultant casualties are simply supporting the State in its actions, and hence are true and noble citizens.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I liked the HIMARS bit. Nice touch.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt that would happen though. Poland was afraid to give over some MiG-29s without everyone's backing, and Germany is still mollycoddling about Leo2 tanks. These are not the sort of nations that would unilaterally attack Russia.


That was still early in the war. We were all a little too cautious then.


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## special ed (Oct 25, 2022)

One of the links of the past two days had a side bar which said the 2nd brigade of 101st Airborne had been moved to the Romanian border with Ukraine. I have not seen comment by forum members or news media. non sense or fake news?


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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

I saw that report too.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suppose those Russian dumbasses haven't considered that a "dirty nuke" would create a fallout cloud that'll eventually drift eastward into Russia proper.



I wouldn't be so sure about that part. The reason fallout is so dangerous is because not only is it irradiated, but the nuclear explosion that creates it is sucking in the topsoil, irradiating it, and then hoisting it well into the stratosphere where upper-level winds can scatter it hundreds of miles. A two-thousand-pound bomb simply doesn't have the power to lift that soil very far, so it stays much more localized.

It could still poison a large area, and the storage containers used by the Ukrainians at Zaporizhia could conceivably poison up to 120 square miles (about 11 x 11 miles square), which is of course more than bad enough to have long-term effects.

A much bigger worry, to me, is the preparation of the dam for blowing. That reservoir supplies cooling water to the plant at Zaporizhia, and also supplies electricity to drive its pumps. Losing either or both would likely result in a meltdown if the plant is running active. That's what happened at Fukushima due to the tsunami.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt that would happen though. Poland was afraid to give over some MiG-29s without everyone's backing, and Germany is still mollycoddling about Leo2 tanks. These are not the sort of nations that would unilaterally attack Russia.



No, but the US and UK could well do so if they decided to -- not that I think they would, mind you. I think a dirty bomb would result in a no-fly zone, though, which would either end the invasion or spur Russian escalation, which is why it's not been applied yet. Keep in mind that Biden has already warned of catastrophic consequences of Russia setting off a nuke, and Petraeus has already outlined a possible non-nuclear response as well.

It's hard to say what the Western response would be to a simple dirty bomb


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

special ed said:


> One of the links of the past two days had a side bar which said the 2nd brigade of 101st Airborne had been moved to the Romanian border with Ukraine. I have not seen comment by forum members or news media. non sense or fake news?



Like Rob, I've read reports too, like this one from _Stars & Stripes_:

_The 101st Airborne Division marked its official arrival in Europe during a ceremony Saturday at a strategic base in Romania, where soldiers were dispatched on a mission aimed at deterring potential aggression on NATO's southeastern flank.

The division's headquarters and its 2nd Brigade Combat Team unfurled colors at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, which will serve as an operational hub for the unit in the months ahead. The positioning of an Army combat brigade in Romania is part of an enhanced military presence along NATO's eastern flank that has taken root in the aftermath of Russia's war on Ukraine._









The 101st’s ‘Screaming Eagles’ take on new Romania mission


In all, about 4,700 soldiers from the 101st Airborne will carry out missions in Europe during their deployment.




www.stripes.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 25, 2022)

Russia's 'dirty bomb' claim is another ploy to spread fear, scare away support for Ukraine - experts | Businessinsider


Putin "knows he can't win on the battlefield and he is in a weak position," John Sipher, a former CIA officer who served in Russia, told Insider.




www.businessinsider.co.za












Russia’s ‘Dirty Bomb’ Gambit


The West warns that Russia may be seeking a pretext to escalate the war.




www.nytimes.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

I wonder what's going through the minds of the Russian troops in Transnistria now, besides vodka.

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Russia accused of 'preparing terror attack' at Ukrainian power plant


Ukraine's nuclear energy operator says Russian officials have refused to let Ukrainian staff and UN monitors into the plant, which is in territory controlled by Moscow.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No, but the US and UK could well do so if they decided to -- not that I think they would, mind you. I think a dirty bomb would result in a no-fly zone, though, which would either end the invasion or spur Russian escalation, which is why it's not been applied yet. Keep in mind that Biden has already warned of catastrophic consequences of Russia setting off a nuke, and Petraeus has already outlined a possible non-nuclear response as well.
> 
> It's hard to say what the Western response would be to a simple dirty bomb


Agreed. We would be into a whole new uncharted territory if either a nuke or a dirty bomb was utilised.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No, but the US and UK could well do so if they decided to -- not that I think they would, mind you.


One thing this war has brought to the fore is just how underfunded and equipped the British armed forces are. There is a huge submarine deficit, for example, where Britain once had more than a dozen nuclear attack boats (SSNs) they now have six. On escorts, they have a total of ten frigates and six destroyers. The new QE class carriers have less than two dozen F-35s between them. Britain does not have the ability to undertake any bilateral moves with the US against Russia, beyond the smallest supporting role.

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One thing this war has brought to the fore is just how underfunded and equipped the British armed forces are. There is a huge submarine deficit, for example, where Britain once had more than a dozen nuclear attack boats (SSNs) they now have six. On escorts, they have a total of ten frigates and six destroyers. The new QE class carriers have less than two dozen F-35s between them. Britain does not have the ability to undertake any bilateral moves with the US against Russia, beyond the smallest supporting role.



And yet the Royal Navy is still the 5th largest in the world, behind the US, China, Russia and Japan (France comes in sixth). Regardless, maritime forces won't be of much use if the UK gets involved in Ukraine as they will be barred from entering the Black Sea. 

Britain can also project more force, with greater capabilities, more rapidly than any other European nation. The F-35 force is increasing but you can't wave a magic wand and suddenly find another 20 airframes, and you completely ignore the five front-line squadrons of Typhoons. Yes, we'd all rather the RAF had 12 squadrons of Typhoons but the UK still has more Typhoons than any other nation with the exception of Germany. 

The UK remains a key strategic ally for the US and has proven, time and again, willing to deploy forces globally, often in support of American interests. To suggest that the UK will have "the smallest supporting role" is nonsense when compared to other countries that would likely join any US-led coalition. Yes, the US is the 600lb gorilla but the UK is still second-tier, which is not a bad place to be compared to a superpower....and the US will require as many allies as possible if it gets actively involved in Ukraine (i.e. boots on the ground).

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Washington considers sending Hawk missile systems to Ukraine


The U.S. the Department of Defense and the Biden administration are considering sending Hawk medium-range, surface-to-air guided missile systems to Ukraine. The story was first reported by Reuters, which cited two U.S. officials who said that Washington is considering sending older Hawks from...




defence-blog.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One thing this war has brought to the fore is just how underfunded and equipped the British armed forces are. There is a huge submarine deficit, for example, where Britain once had more than a dozen nuclear attack boats (SSNs) they now have six. On escorts, they have a total of ten frigates and six destroyers. The new QE class carriers have less than two dozen F-35s between them. Britain does not have the ability to undertake any bilateral moves with the US against Russia, beyond the smallest supporting role.



I wouldn't say six SSBNs is a shortfall, though it depends on capabilities. I think they're Trident II? If so, that's a credible deterrent against any nation on Earth. The escort craft is definitely an issue, barely enough to put together a credible screen for the carriers even when only one is sailing -- the escorts will be undergoing refit etc as well.

But the economy of the country seems to be struggling to maintain even that, and with the new PM it looks like more austerity is in the cards.

I don't, therefore, think the Brits would work outside of the context of full NATO involvement, but they may if they know the US is on the same page. They clearly don't have the power to work unilaterally and haven't for several decades, but in concert with the US and perhaps Canada they'd feel better about it.

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Rheinmetall from Germany to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital | Defense News October 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


Rheinmetall subsidiary Zeppelin Mobile Systeme GmbH to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Russia loses impressive 25% of its Ka-52 helicopter fleet


Russia is visually confirmed to have lost over 25% of its total operational Ka-52 helicopter fleet, according to the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD). The last intelligence update said there had been at least 23 verified losses of Russia’s Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter in Ukraine since the...




defence-blog.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Rheinmetall from Germany to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital | Defense News October 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> Rheinmetall subsidiary Zeppelin Mobile Systeme GmbH to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital
> ...


That is a great contribution. The Ukrainians might have to paint out the red crosses. They're Russian aiming points.


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## buffnut453 (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't, therefore, think the Brits would work outside of the context of full NATO involvement, but they may if they know the US is on the same page. They clearly don't have the power to work unilaterally and haven't for several decades, but in concert with the US and perhaps Canada they'd feel better about it.



The whole idea that any European nation--UK included--will take unilateral military action in Ukraine is nonsense. The French have undertaken some unilateral ops in Africa in recent years but they've been small-scale. The only way European nations will do anything is (a) as part of a NATO operation, or (b) within a US-led coalition of the willing. Any other scenario is cloud-cuckoo land, I'm afraid.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wouldn't say six SSBNs is a shortfall, though it depends on capabilities.


One SSBN at sea is sufficient, so whatever is needed to maintain that. But those are a never use platform. I was referring to the SSNs, the attack boats. One of my good friends was the chief designer of the RCN's Halifax class frigates and well founded in British warship construction, and his word is that the RN is dramatically short on SSN capability.


GTX said:


> Rheinmetall from Germany to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital | Defense News October 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> Rheinmetall subsidiary Zeppelin Mobile Systeme GmbH to provide Ukraine with a modern field military hospital
> ...


Tanks, Rheinmetall, Ukraine needs your Leopard 2 tanks. IK, it's not up to you, but damn I hope you've got contingency plans for when/if Berlin finally gives the go ahead.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One SSBN at sea is sufficient, so whatever is needed to maintain that. But those are a never use platform. I was referring to the SSNs, the attack boats. One of my good friends was the chief designer of the RCN's Halifax class frigates and well founded in British warship construction, and his word is that the RN is dramatically short on SSN capability.
> 
> Tanks, Rheinmetall, Ukraine needs your Leopard 2 tanks. IK, it's not up to you, but damn I hope you've got contingency plans for when/if Berlin finally gives the go ahead.



Right, but as noted above this isn't really relevant to Ukraine. The UK's best response to this ongoing crisis is making sure the RAF is tip-top, and as they've been doing for a while now, training Ukrainians in basic military tactics. Attack boats cannot transit the Dardanelles to be useful.


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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Labor pledges extra $200m in Australian aid for Ukraine and $500m for veterans in budget


Albanese government unveils big boost to Pacific aid partly offset by axing Coalition’s agriculture visa while sparing defence from major cuts




www.theguardian.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but as noted above this isn't really relevant to Ukraine. The UK's best response to this ongoing crisis is making sure the RAF is tip-top, and as they've been doing for a while now, training Ukrainians in basic military tactics. Attack boats cannot transit the Dardanelles to be useful.


If Britain intervenes in Ukraine it's essentially declared war, if on a limited scale (initially) on Russia in all theatres, not just within Ukraine or the Black Sea. We must then expect the Russian navy, including its twenty-five SSNs and SSGNs plus twenty SSKs to sail into the North Atlantic to destroy undersea communications cables and otherwise disrupt trade. Russia's only means of hitting back at Britain is through the air and sea, so it will be a RN and RAF home defence affair, much less the army. That's why the decline of the RN is worrisome.


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## GTX (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Tanks, Rheinmetall, Ukraine needs your Leopard 2 tanks. IK, it's not up to you, but damn I hope you've got contingency plans for when/if Berlin finally gives the go ahead.


How many times must we address this:


For all the focus on Germany, where is the matching focus on France, UK, USA, Italy or others re modern western tanks? 
Modern tanks aren't something one is able to just hand over and expect to operate or be able to support - there is a reason why Western nations have sent T-72s and other ex-Soviet hardware!
There are implications if a modern western tank were to be captured by the Russians.
There are also implications (including risk of escalations) that come with something overt such as a modern tank - this would play well into the Russian "NATO is attacking us" - more than other items do. It might seem unfair, but that is sadly the truth.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 25, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> How many times must we address this:



_Q. For all the focus on Germany, where is the matching focus on France, UK, USA, Italy or others re modern western tanks?_
A. Other nations wants to send modern western tanks. But they're operating Leopard 2s and require Germany to both release and support their use. Abrams, Challengers, Lecerc and Ariette, etc. are less available, and Ukraine is specifically asking for Leopards.

_Q. Modern tanks aren't something one is able to just hand over and expect to operate or be able to support_
A. It's been eight months. If it takes another eight months, then fine, but the training, logistical preparations and spares to eventually operate Leopard 2s could have been underway six months ago. Maybe it is and we just don't know, which would be great.

_Q. There are implications if a modern western tank were to be captured by the Russians._
A. That didn't stop the west from sending tanks into the Middle East wars, where Iran captured several Abrams tanks. The trick is to have a protocol to detonate any tank that must be abandoned. Send older Leopard 2 tanks with older tech if need be - Canada's for example.

_Q. There are also implications (including risk of escalations) that come with something overt such as a modern tank - this would play well into the Russian "NATO is attacking us"_
A. NATO provided MANPADS, MANPATS, HIMARS, M270-MLS, M777, etc. have attacked and decimated the Russian air force and army. Russia knows full well that many/most of the AFUs tanks are coming from NATO no matter if they were produced in ex-USSR factories.

I hope Scholz has more than these four reasons for not sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine. My eternal internal optimist hopes that the AFU are this very moment training on Leopard 2 tanks and that they'll be deployed by the latest in the spring of 2023. By then much of Ukraine's mixed MBT fleet of approx. eight hundred M-55, T-62, T-64, T-72, T-80, T-84, T-90 and PT-91 MBTs may be worn out or lost.


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## Glider (Oct 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The whole idea that any European nation--UK included--will take unilateral military action in Ukraine is nonsense. The French have undertaken some unilateral ops in Africa in recent years but they've been small-scale. The only way European nations will do anything is (a) as part of a NATO operation, or (b) within a US-led coalition of the willing. Any other scenario is cloud-cuckoo land, I'm afraid.


It's possible that if Belarus does invade Ukraine, then that might tip Poland into supporting Ukraine. 

There is a good chance that the last thing Poland wants is Russia on its border.

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## Glider (Oct 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wouldn't say six SSBNs is a shortfall, though it depends on capabilities. I think they're Trident II? If so, that's a credible deterrent against any nation on Earth. The escort craft is definitely an issue, barely enough to put together a credible screen for the carriers even when only one is sailing -- the escorts will be undergoing refit etc as well.
> 
> But the economy of the country seems to be struggling to maintain even that, and with the new PM it looks like more austerity is in the cards.
> 
> I don't, therefore, think the Brits would work outside of the context of full NATO involvement, but they may if they know the US is on the same page. They clearly don't have the power to work unilaterally and haven't for several decades, but in concert with the US and perhaps Canada they'd feel better about it.


If you think there is a shortfall now, wait until the next UK budget. I would be amazed if one of the new carries doesn't get mothballed

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## SaparotRob (Oct 25, 2022)

Glider said:


> It's possible that if Belarus does invade Ukraine, then that might tip Poland into supporting Ukraine.
> 
> There is a good chance that the last thing Poland wants is Russia on its border.


Nor would Lithuania. That puts Russia much closer to the Suwalki Gap as well.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 25, 2022)

Ukraine rocks social.

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## manta22 (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine rocks social.



Very well done appeal.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> There are implications if a modern western tank were to be captured by the Russians.



I think this is actually a huge reason why modern western tanks have not been provided. That includes Leopard IIs, Abrams, Challenger 2’s, etc.

As nice as it would be to simply snap our fingers and these tanks will magically appear in Ukraine, it ain’t happening.

Now, when Canada decides to up their game, do their part, and send the Mounties to crew the tanks, then it might happen. Come on Canada! Why are you stalling???

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Abrams, Challengers, Lecerc and Ariette, etc. are less available



Are they less available? Lets look at some facts.

Production numbers:

M1 Abrams: 10,400
Leopard 2: 3,600
M1A1 Abrams: 6,109
M1A2 Abrams: 2,855
M1A2 Abrams SEP: 3,273
Challenger 1: 420
Challenger 2: 447
Leclerc: 862
Mercava: approx: 2,000

Seems to me there is a lot of Abram’s to go around.

Now, while I personally would love to see some Leopard 2’s shipped off to Ukraine, I don’t think its as easy as you want to keep pushing. If it was, then all sorts of MBT’s would already be fighting the Russians including Leopards and Abrams, as it does not matter what Ukraine is asking for.


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## gumbyk (Oct 25, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine rocks social.



Anyone else notice that putins name wasn't capitalised?

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## GTX (Oct 26, 2022)

Russia-Ukraine war: Tactics as cold weather arrives







amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org

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## MiTasol (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I doubt that would happen though. Poland was afraid to give over some MiG-29s without everyone's backing, and Germany is still mollycoddling about Leo2 tanks. These are not the sort of nations that would unilaterally attack Russia.



I am becoming convinced that LEO *now* stands for Late and Ever Overdue

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## MiTasol (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Are they less available? Lets look at some facts.
> 
> Production numbers:
> 
> ...



I think now when the combat area is in winter slowdown the best that can happen in tank terms is for the US in warm southern states, and Australia, to train the Ukrainians on some readily available semi modern tanks. Early Abrams and Leopards are plentiful - lets get them moving

*I strongly discount the intelligence value of any 40 year old tank* (or other weapon as old as the Abrams and Leo2) as the Russians will already have a well stocked archive of information on them and find nothing they do not already know. As far as I can see the big downsides of the Abrams are the maintenance workload and the fuel burn. The Leopards seem to have a history of dying of *old age* (due lack of factory support) quite early - the first Leo2's are only a couple of years older than the Abrams but it seems like many of the users have decided theirs are beyond salvage as the spares are no longer available.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Are they less available? Lets look at some facts.


Existence in quantity does not necessarily equal availability. The Leopard 2 is operated by several NATO and European countries, becoming one of the most widely distributed MBTs. For example, Spain offered their Leopard 2s, until they were suddenly deemed worthy of nothing more than a scrap heap. With German support and enough money from NATO I’m sure those tanks could have been reactivated, even if it takes a year, if started six months ago Ukraine could get them in spring 2023.

But put aside the Leo. Ukraine is going to need more tanks in the spring, and there aren’t a lot of T-72s etc. left to send. So, what does the West do for Ukraine?


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## ThomasP (Oct 26, 2022)

The US could easily send 100x or 200x M1s if they thought it was a good idea, in the same way they have sent ~250x M113 based vehicles (so far - my understanding there are another 50+ in the pipeline).

The difference is the M113 is dirt simple to operate and maintain. The same diesel mechanics that support the farmers in Ukraine can keep the M113 running without any problem (assuming spares are available).

Yes, the Ukrainians can learn to operate and maintain the M1, but the time it would take to do so is much longer, and the supply chain would be problematic.

Yes, the Leopard 2 is simpler than the M1 in the area of its engine - but that is the only area that it can be said to be easier to maintain. The rest of the modernized Leopard 2 systems are on a ~par with the M1 and Challenger. And there is no point in giving 20 year old unmodernized Leopards to Ukraine as they will not be much(any?) more effective than the modernized T-72s already being supplied.

Also, although lighter than the M1, the Leopard 2 is still heavier than the latest T-72 variants in the Ukraine by around 15-20 tons depending on the variant.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)

T
 ThomasP
good points. So, what does Ukraine do for tanks as the war drags onto summer and autumn 2023? There must be a thousand T-72s rolling around Africa and the Middle East. Doesn‘t Iraq have a lot? Perhaps the local despots can be convinced to part with them. 

I wonder if those Korean tanks ordered by Poland will end up in Ukraine, since the former has Abrams now.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Existence in quantity does not necessarily equal availability. The Leopard 2 is operated by several NATO and European countries, becoming one of the most widely distributed MBTs. For example, Spain offered their Leopard 2s, until they were suddenly deemed worthy of nothing more than a scrap heap. With German support and enough money from NATO I’m sure those tanks could have been reactivated, even if it takes a year, if started six months ago Ukraine could get them in spring 2023.
> 
> But put aside the Leo. Ukraine is going to need more tanks in the spring, and there aren’t a lot of T-72s etc. left to send. So, what does the West do for Ukraine?



The Abrams is distributed throughout the entire world. Many countries use it.

My point is this, there is much more to it than simply putting tanks on a boat or train and sending then to Ukraine. Something you repeatedly don’t seem to care about or grasp (and not just about tanks). There are political, logistical, and supply chain (the last one probably more so) issues.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 26, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I think now when the combat area is in winter slowdown the best that can happen in tank terms is for the US in warm southern states, and Australia, to train the Ukrainians on some readily available semi modern tanks. Early Abrams and Leopards are plentiful - lets get them moving
> 
> *I strongly discount the intelligence value of any 40 year old tank* (or other weapon as old as the Abrams and Leo2) as the Russians will already have a well stocked archive of information on them and find nothing they do not already know. As far as I can see the big downsides of the Abrams are the maintenance workload and the fuel burn. The Leopards seem to have a history of dying of *old age* (due lack of factory support) quite early - the first Leo2's are only a couple of years older than the Abrams but it seems like many of the users have decided theirs are beyond salvage as the spares are no longer available.



I don’t disagree with any of this.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If Britain intervenes in Ukraine it's essentially declared war, if on a limited scale (initially) on Russia in all theatres, not just within Ukraine or the Black Sea. We must then expect the Russian navy, including its twenty-five SSNs and SSGNs plus twenty SSKs to sail into the North Atlantic to destroy undersea communications cables and otherwise disrupt trade. Russia's only means of hitting back at Britain is through the air and sea, so it will be a RN and RAF home defence affair, much less the army. That's why the decline of the RN is worrisome.



The US Navy has been the backstop for decades regarding GIUK. I don't think we'd let that happen unchallenged, in which case there are now attack subs available.

Mind you, I'm not saying that the decline of the RN is not worrisome, but it's not relevant in this case. What it really does is tie UK foreign policy to America's.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> If you think there is a shortfall now, wait until the next UK budget. I would be amazed if one of the new carries doesn't get mothballed



Austerity is indeed on the cards.


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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> T
> ThomasP
> good points. So, what does Ukraine do for tanks as the war drags onto summer and autumn 2023? There must be a thousand T-72s rolling around Africa and the Middle East. Doesn‘t Iraq have a lot? Perhaps the local despots can be convinced to part with them.
> 
> I wonder if those Korean tanks ordered by Poland will end up in Ukraine, since the former has Abrams now.


*So, what does Ukraine do for tanks as the war drags onto summer and autumn 2023?*
Russia is a reliable tank provider, so far has provided almost 500 captured tanks to Ukraine, even if not all are operative it's still its main tank provider.

*Doesn't Iraq have a lot?*
As far as I know main tank in Irak armed forces is M1A1. Irak also has a few dozen, relatively new, T90 and a couple hundred T72, but not sure if those are operative.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 26, 2022)

The other question is what does Russia do for tanks in 2023 ? 

Russia had a program to decrease the literally thousands of items needed to produce their military gear of all types 
that had to be sourced overseas, particularly from the very countries who now refuse to supply them.

The project was not successful and thousands of items are still unavailable to Russia for their weaponry but are of
course now available to Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> My point is this, there is much more to it than simply putting tanks on a boat or train and sending then to Ukraine.


Whatever the challenges they are not insurmountable. Had NATO decided six months ago that Leopard 2 tanks would be provided "eventually" to Ukraine, many of the challenges around operator and mechanic training, spares, logistics and support could have been worked on, with a goal to provide the tanks to Ukraine in spring 2023. Surely a year plus is long enough for the Ukrainians to effectively deploy, use and support modern Western MBTs? I'm hoping that behind the scenes, away from the media and war bloggers this very scenario is underway.

If on the other hand, things are as they seem and no plans to provide Leopard 2 or other western MBTs are well underway, then I'd agree with any who suggest providing such tanks to Ukraine is likely not possible. In this case, Ukraine will have to settle for captured Russian tanks and whatever T-55-T-90 tanks NATO can procure and/or donate.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No one is suggesting otherwise.



Uh, yeah, you are. 2 weeks into the war (and every week thereafter) you have been:

_“Where are the Leo2s? They should have them by now.”

“Where are the A-10s? Where are the F-16s? It’s been two months!”_

And over and over, everyone has to remind you of the training, supply chain, logistical, snd political ramifications.

I get you are passionate about this. I get that your wife is Ukranian. I agree that more needs to be done. It just ain’t that easy. That’s why I keep bringing up the Mounties in jest.

If providing these tanks was possible, I am pretty sure it would have been done.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 26, 2022)

Tanks are great as long as you have infantry to support them and aircraft overhead to protect both.

The focus should be an increase of well trained and equipped boots as well as an increase of zoomies.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Uh, yeah, you are. 2 weeks into the war (and every week thereafter) you have been:


That was your sole takeaway from my post? Then I wholly retract those earlier statements, if you're interested to know where I stand on MBTs, see above.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I'm disappointed that that was your sole takeaway from my post.
> 
> Then I wholly retract those earlier statements, if you're interested to know where I stand on MBTs, see above.



No, it’s not all I take away from it. Overall you are a great contributor. You have sparked great conversations, especially in this thread. I thank you for that.

I think we all just have to realize that there are some things beyond anyone’s control and there are forces that just mean some things are not possible (at least at this point in the game).

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## manta22 (Oct 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia-Ukraine war: Tactics as cold weather arrives
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This reference to Finland's "Winter War" with the Soviet Union brought back memories of 1956-1957 when my family lived in an American housing area on Platenstrasse in Frankfurt. Our next door neighbors were from Finland, the Paasonen family, and I went to high school with the son, Henry. I encourage everyone to look up "Operation Stella Polaris". At the time, my dad told me that Mr Paasonen had been someone important and that he worked in the I G Farben building where he also worked. I did not know of Stella Polaris at that time, only finding out about it a few years ago but we knew there was something strange- their windows were always covered and they did not go out much. Now I know why.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No, it’s not all I take away from it. Overall you are a great contributor. You have sparked great conversations, especially in this thread. I thank you for that.
> 
> I think we all just have to realize that there are some things beyond anyone’s control and there are forces that just mean some things are not possible (at least at this point in the game).



And there are lots of moves happening beyond the reach of the internet blogs that, rightly, are being kept sensitive. AFAIK, Ukraine hasn't explicitly asked for more MBTs. They have asked for AT weapons (which are probably better suited to the tactics that have proven so successful for the Ukrainian Army) and for air defence systems. 

Perhaps I'm naiive in presuming that the Western nations are actually giving Ukraine the types of weapons they're requesting, even if the quantities will never be sufficient (I've yet to see any military leader anywhere who says "I have all the forces I need to accomplish my mission"; they ALWAYS want more).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> (I've yet to see any military leader anywhere who says "I have all the forces I need to accomplish my mission"; they ALWAYS want more).



No, but I personally have heard a political leader tell a military leader they will do with what they have…

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)



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## MiTasol (Oct 26, 2022)

Nice to see the Aus government are sending more Bushmasters but I think the rest of the headline is reversed.









Australia to help train Ukrainian forces in fight against Russia, send more Bushmaster vehicles


Australian troops will deploy to the UK to train Ukrainian forces, helping bolster the eastern European nation's defences against Vladimir Putin's brutal invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## manta22 (Oct 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


>



This video does not do justice to the Hawk. The Hawk missile system is impressive in many ways, even if it's old. The launcher's & radar antenna's slew rate is REALLY fast as you might expect from its being designed to knock down high-speed low-flying planes. When I arrived at the Ordnance Guided Missile School in the spring of 1961, I was initially assigned to a new Hawk battalion. Just before I got there a repairman had needed to do something in the base of a launcher and opened a cover in it. Unfortunately, he had just switched on the system when he put his head in to look. When the tubes in the servo motor driver warmed up, the launcher slewed around at a terrific rate of speed. It was fatal.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 26, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> No, but I personally have heard a political leader tell a military leader they will do with what they have…



That's the other certainty in military force generation...politicians saying that resources aren't available (having previously made cuts because it was deemed that said forces weren't necessary).

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That's the other certainty in military force generation...politicians saying that resources aren't available (having previously made cuts because it was deemed that said forces weren't necessary).


Sounds like Britain taking stock at what’s left to send to retake the Falklands.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 26, 2022)

manta22 said:


> This video does not do justice to the Hawk. The Hawk missile system is impressive in many ways, even if it's old. The launcher's & radar antenna's slew rate is REALLY fast as you might expect from its being designed to knock down high-speed low-flying planes. When I arrived at the Ordnance Guided Missile School in the spring of 1961, I was initially assigned to a new Hawk battalion. Just before I got there a repairman had needed to do something in the base of a launcher and opened a cover in it. Unfortunately, he had just switched on the system when he put his head in to look. When the tubes in the servo motor driver warmed up, the launcher slewed around at a terrific rate of speed. It was fatal.



My dad was an ADA missileer at Ft Bliss doing shoots at White Sands, specializing in the Hawk II by the end of his thirteen years in uniform -- and then we went to Iran where he worked on Hawks for the IIAF.

With the upgrades done since then, it is still a credible threat.

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 26, 2022)

From what I understand the whole Iran-Contra scandal got uncovered because when we agreed to sell the Iranians weapons (Hawk Missiles) they thought they were getting Hawk IIIs, instead they got Hawk Is. Of course the press found out immediately.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 26, 2022)

First Two NASAMS Air Defense Systems Are In Ukraine: Raytheon CEO


The U.S has promised eight NASAMS batteries and an unspecified amount of ammunition to help Ukraine deal with Russian missiles and drones.




www.thedrive.com

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## Jabberwocky (Oct 27, 2022)

Rotax engines (manufactured in Austria, owned by a Canadian/US firm) are turning up in the Iranian drones being used by the Russians against Ukraine. 
The very popular 912 and 914 have been used for various Iranian drones (not to mention US and Turkish drones as well).









Rotax Engine Found In Iranian Mohajer-6 Drone Downed Over Ukraine


Reports of Austrian Rotax engines being used in Iranian drones aren't new, but hard proof they are being used in those acquired by Russia is.




www.thedrive.com





It's not like Iran is trying to hide it either - they didn't even bother to remove branding or other identifying marks.

What's a little odd is that there was a rash of thefts of these engines - starting in about 2003 and peaking about 2018. Rotax lists 130 as stolen in the last 20 years, most of them being stripped out of light aircraft in Europe.

However, given how many of these have been fired - at least 500 of the 1000+ acquired by Russia - that's not enough to power them all. I wonder if they've built a local knock-off version, or are souring engines from secondary buyers and through shell companies and other sanction busting methods.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 27, 2022)

China is notorious for pirating patented items.
Their Norinco 1911 was an exact copy of Colt's 1911A1, but due to most favored nation status, Colt couldn't prosecute.

So...I'd look in their direction...

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## ThomasP (Oct 27, 2022)

re Chinese copies of Rotax 912 & 914

"Zongshen aero engines available in Europe :"

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## MiTasol (Oct 27, 2022)

Hopefully this will develop a terminal leak while there









South Africa to let Russian billionaire's $500 million superyacht dock in Cape Town


Despite a bid by the city's mayor to block its entry, South Africa will allow a $500 million superyacht linked to a sanctioned Russian billionaire to dock in Cape Town.




www.abc.net.au

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## fubar57 (Oct 27, 2022)

Hope no one accidentally smokes around it

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## Dimlee (Oct 27, 2022)

_"LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A senior Russian foreign ministry official said that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets for Russia if they were involved in the war in Ukraine."_








Russia warns West: We can target your commercial satellites


A senior Russian foreign ministry official said that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets for Russia if they were involved in the war in Ukraine.




www.reuters.com





Iranian drones to Star Wars.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A senior Russian foreign ministry official said that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets for Russia if they were involved in the war in Ukraine."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 27, 2022)

Ukraine Is Collecting A Lot Of Russia’s Old T-62 Tanks


The Ukrainian armed forces now have captured enough T-62s from the Russians to form a T-62 battalion of their own.




www.forbes.com

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## GrauGeist (Oct 27, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A senior Russian foreign ministry official said that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets for Russia if they were involved in the war in Ukraine."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hmmm...

And here's where the Russian logic kicks in - "we will attack your proprietary equipment that is beyond Ukraine borders, but we will not expect repercussions..."

So going with their logic, Russian equipment is being used by Ukraine to defeat Russian forces. 
Why aren't they threatening themselves then?
(The scene from the movie "Blazing Saddles" comes to mind, where the Sherrif is holding his gun to his own head)

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 27, 2022)

It's just another threat to escalate if the West doesn't stop interfering in this domestic dispute.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 27, 2022)

It's only a matter of time before they threaten to hold their breath.

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## special ed (Oct 27, 2022)

Perhaps if no Studebaker trucks make their way to Ukraine, the T-62s can be sold to collectors post war.

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## J_P_C (Oct 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's only a matter of time before they threaten to hold their breath.


i'm ready for such sacrifice from their side.....

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 27, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Ukraine Is Collecting A Lot Of Russia’s Old T-62 Tanks
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian armed forces now have captured enough T-62s from the Russians to form a T-62 battalion of their own.
> ...


Against infantry and A/IFVs the T-62 will do just fine in Ukrainian hands. It's armour is sufficiently proof against most fire from BMPs and BTRs. If anything heavier shows up, like a Russian MBT the Ukrainian T-62's accompanying infantry can kill it with their MANPATS.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 27, 2022)

Again, I personally remember a time when the T-62 was scary. Buzz wuz the M-60 was outclassed and who knew when or if this M-1 thing would ever work.


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## Admiral Beez (Oct 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Again, I personally remember a time when the T-62 was scary. Buzz wuz the M-60 was outclassed and who knew when or if this M-1 thing would ever work.


Made the Centurion and its 20 pdr and 105 mm L7 look less convincing. Hence the superlative Chieftain and its 120 mm, the King Tiger of the 1960s. Of course in Israeli hands the Centurion and M60 (and upgunned/upengined M48 and Shermans for that matter) could clear the field of T-62s.

Now that their stuff has been battle tested in Ukraine, is anything made in Russia considered competitive now.... especially in Russian hands? These guys were supposed to be the West's greatest threat, ready to roll from Poland to Paris.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 27, 2022)

More Kremlin kloud-kuckoo-land:









World faces most dangerous decade since WW2 - Putin


Russia's president says the West is unable to stay in charge, but is "desperately trying" to cling on.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Oct 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More Kremlin kloud-kuckoo-land:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


wow...

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 27, 2022)

Good vid on AFU air defence. That Gepard looks right out of a 80s scifi film.

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## Frog (Oct 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My dad was an ADA missileer at Ft Bliss doing shoots at White Sands, specializing in the Hawk II by the end of his thirteen years in uniform -- and then we went to Iran where he worked on Hawks for the IIAF.
> 
> With the upgrades done since then, it is still a credible threat.



On september 7, 1987, a detachment from the french 403rd artillery regiment (air defense) shot down a lybian Tu 22 heading to N'Djamena (Chad) with a single Hawk.
,

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## GTX (Oct 27, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> It's just another threat to escalate if the West doesn't stop interfering in this domestic dispute.


Except it is not a domestic dispute when one country invades another.


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## Greg Boeser (Oct 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> Except it is not a domestic dispute when one country invades another.


Estranged territory. Seduced away, while Mother Russia was weak. Treaties and international agreements forced upon the Rodina by evil western powers, taking advantage of turmoil created by CIA operatives. They are therefore illegitimate. Besides, the referendums prove, without question, the people wish to be Russian. If someone takes what is rightfully yours, do you not have a right to take it back?
Signed, 
Moskva Mikhial

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## special ed (Oct 27, 2022)

Check this video and give opinions if real time or created.





Your browser is not able to display this video.





Said to be Javelins

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## buffnut453 (Oct 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> Check this video and give opinions if real time or created.
> 
> View attachment 692130
> 
> ...



Looks computer-generated to me.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Looks computer-generated to me.


It looks like the same realism as this gamer footage.


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## J_P_C (Oct 27, 2022)

special ed said:


> Check this video and give opinions if real time or created.
> 
> View attachment 692130
> 
> ...


its game footage from ARMA computer game

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 27, 2022)

The lights on the tank and explosions did not look right. Also, why would tanks continue driving straight on a road while getting blasted. I would have expected some of them to turn off

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## at6 (Oct 27, 2022)

Why would tanks expose themselves with headlight? Also the explosions are too fake to be real.


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## special ed (Oct 28, 2022)

The headlights caused me doubts. WW2 vehicles used slits and subdued lights. That's why I asked. Also I thought the photog, if real, stayed too long.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 28, 2022)

Just playing Devil's advocate here, but the Russians have proven themselves to be total dumbasses - a column of tanks with their driving lights on is not out of reason.

Remember, the great Russian Army was invincible...




*was*

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## XBe02Drvr (Oct 28, 2022)

special ed said:


> Check this video and give opinions if real time or created.
> 
> View attachment 692130
> 
> ...


The audio is "doctored". No time lapse between explosions and sound reaching microphone, which is (presumably) on the camera.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 28, 2022)

Looks like Russia is preparing for the Battle of Kherson. Good to see Kadyrov is reporting significant losses for his Chechen force. The replacement of the Chechen force with recent recruits is also interesting:









Russia ends civilian pull-out before Kherson battle


An eight-day operation ends in Kherson city as Russian officials prepare for a Ukrainian attack.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Looks like Russia is preparing for the Battle of Kherson.


Russia needs to hold Kherson while they prepare defensive lines between it and Armiansk, Crimea. As it stands now, there's nothing but open country and wide highways between Kherson and this first city in Crimea. This will not be a relative "cakewalk" like Kyiv or Kharkiv with the Russians fleeing and leaving behind intact tanks and kit.

Ukraine cannot afford to take heavy losses in urban fighting in Kherson. So my guess is that the AFU will instead take the Kakhovka dam and then fight their way along the Dnieper's southern bank until Kherson is cut off from the south. With both banks of the Dnieper in AFU hands the Ukrainians on the southern bank can be resupplied by boat and pontoon bridges.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 28, 2022)

_MOSCOW, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Friday said that the "partial mobilisation" Russia announced in September was complete.

Speaking at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin broadcast on state television, Shoigu said that 82,000 mobilised recruits were in the conflict zone, with a further 218,000 in training._









Russia's partial mobilisation is complete, Shoigu says


Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Friday said that the "partial mobilisation" of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine that Russia announced in September was complete, with tens of thousands of them already sent to the combat zone.




www.reuters.com






Think about that for a moment: 82,000 recruits are already fighting battle-hardened Ukrainians.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Remember, the great Russian Army was invincible...



I just want the great Russian Army in Ukraine to become invisible.

Please let it evaporate.




D'ya see what I did there?

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Speaking at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin broadcast on state television, Shoigu said that 82,000 mobilised recruits were in the conflict zone, with a further 218,000 in training._


Considering that Ukraine's army now has about 900,000 well-equipped, fed, led and motivated active personnel; you're going to need a bigger boat.

Ukraine claimed 700,000 in July, so I estimate from there.









Ukraine aims to amass 'million-strong army' to fight Russia, says defence minister


The defence minister's remarks are a rallying cry - rather than a concrete plan - as Russia pounds cities.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Considering that Ukraine's army now has about 900,000 well-equipped, fed, led and motivated active personnel; you're going to need a bigger boat.
> 
> Ukraine claimed 700,000 in July, so I estimate from there.
> 
> ...



Compare also the fact that Ukraine is sending thousands of enlistees to the UK for both basic military training as well as advanced infantry training before they are redeployed into theatre, iirc it's about a twelve-fifteen week program.

If this is correct (and if it isn't I'll gladly take correction on board), the implication is that even the new recruits on each side will have a marked disparity in combat value. 

Further deduction leads me to think that deploying 80,000 recruits with less than one months' training bespeaks desperation on the part of the Russians. Even with ~8,000 of these draftees going to Belarus, the Russians are putting a lot of faith in hoping that 70,000 greenhorns will hold the lines while their veterans regroup and redeploy.


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## GTX (Oct 28, 2022)

Battle for Bakhmut: the Ukrainian city without electricity, water and 90 per cent of its people


Russia is attempting to seize the strategic city of Bakhmut after weeks of significant setbacks in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Battle for Bakhmut: the Ukrainian city without electricity, water and 90 per cent of its people
> 
> 
> Russia is attempting to seize the strategic city of Bakhmut after weeks of significant setbacks in Ukraine.
> ...


From what I’ve reading and viewing from analysts, Bakhmut isn’t even strategic. There’s nothing there, no roads or rail that control the frontlines. Attacking this place does nothing to relieve the strain of Ukrainian offensives in Luhansk or the Kherson. It’s a waste of Russian troops.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Battle for Bakhmut: the Ukrainian city without electricity, water and 90 per cent of its people
> 
> 
> Russia is attempting to seize the strategic city of Bakhmut after weeks of significant setbacks in Ukraine.
> ...



This article, linked in the sidebar of your linked post, is also a very interesting read. I'd never heard of Mick Ryan before this war, but the analyses you and a couple of others have posted from him are really cogent and almost always worth the time to read and consider.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Compare also the fact that Ukraine is sending thousands of enlistees to the UK for both basic military training as well as advanced infantry training before they are redeployed into theatre, iirc it's about a twelve-fifteen week program.
> 
> If this is correct (and if it isn't I'll gladly take correction on board), the implication is that even the new recruits on each side will have a marked disparity in combat value.
> 
> Further deduction leads me to think that deploying 80,000 recruits with less than one months' training bespeaks desperation on the part of the Russians. Even with ~8,000 of these draftees going to Belarus, the Russians are putting a lot of faith in hoping that 70,000 greenhorns will hold the lines while their veterans regroup and redeploy.


Those recruits are just speed bumps. It’s putler’s version of Zap Brannigan’s strategy. Keep throwing your troops headlong at the enemy until he’s out of ammunition. I’m not joking. The wretches he’s sending might include a few guys who might shoot back, slowing the Ukrainians. Putler and his oligarchal system holds no value in human life.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 28, 2022)

Bakhmut is Putler’s Verdun.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 28, 2022)

Russians claim that Bakhmut is a "strategic supply center" for the Ukraine military.

The battle at/around the town has been going on since August and my guess is that it's the only option that Russia sees for an offensive victory since they've been getting their ass kicked everywhere else.
Taking the town will enable Putin to claim "we're winning!"

I seriously doubt that's going to happen, though.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Those recruits are just speed bumps. It’s putler’s version of Zap Brannigan’s strategy. Keep throwing your troops headlong at the enemy until he’s out of ammunition. I’m not joking. The wretches he’s sending might include a few guys who might shoot back, slowing the Ukrainians. Putler and his oligarchal system holds no value in human life.



Right, I get that. I just think it's a stupid way to run a railroad. When your rearguard isn't stout, you run the risk of seeing a retreat turn into a rout ... and they've already seen that in the Kharkiv area using veterans, fer chrissakes.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> When your rearguard isn't stout, you run the risk of seeing a retreat turn into a rout ... and they've already seen that in the Kharkiv area using veterans, fer chrissakes.


Routs agreed, the hundreds of intact AFVs captured supports this. But the lack of tens of thousands of Russian POWs suggests the AFU has been unable to fully exploit these routs, allowing the Russians to essentially walk away to fight again another day.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 28, 2022)

There is just so fast an intelligent army can advance. If the opponent is blindly running in panic (food still cooking in the washing machine), the opponent isn't thinking about logistics.


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## GTX (Oct 28, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Oct 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Routs agreed, the hundreds of intact AFVs captured supports this. But the lack of tens of thousands of Russian POWs suggests the AFU has been unable to fully exploit these routs, allowing the Russians to essentially walk away to fight again another day.


Several reports from the Ukraine offensive stated that Ukrainian forces captured so many Russians, they were running out of places to hold them.

That sounds like a significant number to me.

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## Glider (Oct 28, 2022)

This is of interest


12,000 Russian Troops Once Posed A Threat From Inside NATO. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Several reports from the Ukraine offensive stated that Ukrainian forces captured so many Russians, they were running out of places to hold them. That sounds like a significant number to me.


If accurate then I agree. I just think from a propaganda POV we'd have seen them paraded down the main street of Kyiv by now. The Ukrainians have been proudly and cheekily showing off their captured Russian tanks and AFVs, so why keep the POWs under wraps?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Routs agreed, the hundreds of intact AFVs captured supports this. But the lack of tens of thousands of Russian POWs suggests the AFU has been unable to fully exploit these routs, allowing the Russians to essentially walk away to fight again another day.



True. It's hard to catch folks hoofing it, especially when your own resources are limited. But the loss of equipment, position, and most importantly (in my opinion) initiative bespeak a major Russian defeat. And after such a defeat, throwing greenhorns in to plug gaps in your lines seems to me pretty dumb.

The first question of any general worth his salt would be to ask his G-2 where these conscripts are going, and then figure out if attacking there is worthwhile.

While hard numbers are not available, ISW reports that as of Wednesday Russian units on the Kharkiv front are generally at about 20% (!) strength, which implies a lot of Russian PoWs, given that they didn't stand and man their guns -- and so a good proportion of those losses are probably captured. The Associated Press, amongst other outlets, reported in September that Ukraine was having problems encamping the prisoners from the Kharkiv offensive, as well.

So while we don't have exact numbers, we do know that a significant number of Russians have been captured. I suspect that the inability of the Ukrainians to follow through on the offensive has as much to do with their own logistics as it does with Russians standing and fighting. I also suspect that the Russian conscripts actually sent to the Ukrainian front will have a low combat value and will likely surrender or desert if the opportunity shows itself.


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## GTX (Oct 28, 2022)

Ukraine acquires British-made mine clearing vehicle – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If accurate then I agree. I just think from a propaganda POV we'd have seen them paraded down the main street of Kyiv by now. The Ukrainians have been proudly and cheekily showing off their captured Russian tanks and AFVs, so why keep the POWs under wraps?


I believe parading P.O.W.s is a war crime. It isn't permitted by the Geneva Conventions.

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe parading P.O.W.s is a war crime. It isn't permitted by the Geneva Conventions.


Yes. They got scolded for that earlier this year.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 28, 2022)

Ukraine is certainly taking the higher road. War hasn't been declared. The captured Russian troops may fall under criminal, not military justice.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Ukraine is certainly taking the higher road. War hasn't been declared. The captured Russian troops may fall under criminal, not military justice.


I imagine any Russian captured in Ukraine is now better fed, clothed, housed and treated than they were ever in Russia.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

.

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## at6 (Oct 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> From what I’ve reading and viewing from analysts, Bakhmut isn’t even strategic. There’s nothing there, no roads or rail that control the frontlines. Attacking this place does nothing to relieve the strain of Ukrainian offensives in Luhansk or the Kherson. It’s a waste of Russian troops.


The more wasted Russians, the better.


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## at6 (Oct 28, 2022)

I would love to see a headline that stated: Russians run out of missiles and drones. Now launching Iranians with explosive diarrhea.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 28, 2022)

at6 said:


> I would love to see a headline that stated: Russians run out of missiles and drones. Now launching Iranians with explosive diarrhea.


I just don't know what the Iranians get out of their support of Russia and these drones. Russia is clearly becoming failed state, one with a neutered, impotent military, a rapidly declining status in the world, with no use to the Iranians.


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## GrauGeist (Oct 28, 2022)

The only thing Iran has gotten so far, is ten of their own killed last week.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

at6 said:


> The more wasted Russians, the better.


They all seem pretty wasted in those YouTube vids.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I just don't know what the Iranians get out of their support of Russia and these drones. Russia is clearly becoming failed state, one with a neutered, impotent military, a rapidly declining status in the world, with no use to the Iranians.


Learning how to get around sanctions for the Russians. Iran gets to stick it to the U.S. NATO, Ukraine, U.S. What's the difference? They have no one else to play with except maybe North Korea. North Korea has cooties.

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## ThomasP (Oct 29, 2022)

Interesting bit of info:

"Ukrainian Component Identified in Disassembled Iranian Drone - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice"

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## ThomasP (Oct 29, 2022)

Another interesting bit of info:

"PACE Recognizes Putin's Regime in Russia as Terrorist One - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice"

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## Dimlee (Oct 29, 2022)

Just recently, Kremlin accused Ukraine of preparing biological weapons, including mosquitoes...








"Combat mosquitoes" follow "dirty bomb": Russian representative to UN tells more frenzy lies


ALONA MAZURENKO - FRIDAY, 28 OCTOBER 2022, 18:17 Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, has said that the Russian occupiers allegedly discovered drones in Ukraine that can "spread mosquitoes infected with dangerous viruses.




www.yahoo.com





So, here they are. And some mackerel fish... or combat shrimp? Shrimp is an absolute beast when angry.

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## wlewisiii (Oct 29, 2022)



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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just recently, Kremlin accused Ukraine of preparing biological weapons, including mosquitoes...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hopefully Vladolph Putler does not do something that cannot be taken back like launch a tactical nuke.


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## wlewisiii (Oct 29, 2022)



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## special ed (Oct 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just recently, Kremlin accused Ukraine of preparing biological weapons, including mosquitoes...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How do the Ukrainians get the mosquitoes to bit only Russian troops?

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just recently, Kremlin accused Ukraine of preparing biological weapons, including mosquitoes...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The winter weather training of combat mosquitoes must have been tough.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

special ed said:


> How do the Ukrainians get the mosquitoes to bit only Russian troops?


Re-education centers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 29, 2022)

_
LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday that British navy personnel blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, a claim that London said was false and designed to distract from Russian military failures in Ukraine.

Russia did not give evidence for its claim that a leading NATO member had sabotaged critical Russian infrastructure amid the worst crisis in relations between the West and Russia since the depths of the Cold War.


The Russian ministry said that "British specialists" from the same unit directed Ukrainian drone attacks on ships of Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea earlier on Saturday that it said were largely repelled by Russian forces, with minor damage to a Russian minesweeper._









Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement


Moscow did not give evidence for its claim that a leading NATO member had sabotaged critical Russian infrastructure amid the worst crisis in relations between the West and Russia since the depths of the Cold War.




www.reuters.com





A pathetically transparent attempt to sow division in the ranks of the Western nations.

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

Anyone hear anything about the frigate Makarov getting hit?

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## buffnut453 (Oct 29, 2022)

Maybe this?









'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia


Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 29, 2022)

Wiki:

_On 29 October 2022, Admiral Makarov was hit by suicide drones in Sevastopol. It was reported that smoke was rising due to the damage sustained.[21]_









Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Oct 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Wiki:
> 
> _On 29 October 2022, Admiral Makarov was hit by suicide drones in Sevastopol. It was reported that smoke was rising due to the damage sustained.[21]_
> 
> ...



Sink baby, sink!

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## buffnut453 (Oct 29, 2022)

special ed said:


> How do the Ukrainians get the mosquitoes to bit only Russian troops?



It's the Azov chick again, trained by those perfidious Americans. A recently-released Russian intelligence source revealed a training video from America showing female agents conducting mind-control experiments on insects, rodents and birds. They state that a training facility had been identified in Burbank, CA, hiding in plain sight within the Disney Studios film-making complex.

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Just recently, Kremlin accused Ukraine of preparing biological weapons, including mosquitoes...
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Zelenskyy accuses fleeing Russians of stealing ambulances


Russian forces in occupied Kherson are stealing medical equipment and ambulances in a bid to make the area uninhabitable, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> This article, linked in the sidebar of your linked post, is also a very interesting read. I'd never heard of Mick Ryan before this war, but the analyses you and a couple of others have posted from him are really cogent and almost always worth the time to read and consider.


Mick isn't just an external observer/commentator either - he has spent some time in country.

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Russia’s elite begins to ponder a Putinless future


Once unthinkable, the president’s removal can at least be contemplated




www.economist.com

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## Dimlee (Oct 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The winter weather training of combat mosquitoes must have been tough.


Canada helped with winter wear. Probably, one parka enough for the whole division of mosquitoes?

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

More Bushmasters, infantry trainers to support Ukraine - CONTACT magazine


Share the post "More Bushmasters, infantry trainers to support Ukraine" FacebookLinkedInPinterestTwitterShare…Email In a doorstop interview with journalists at Parliament House,



www.contactairlandandsea.com

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## Dimlee (Oct 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



It's interesting that in every naval incident they look for British involvement. It's a recurring topic that becoming rather emotional, a kind of _Gott strafe England._

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Canada helped with winter wear. Probably, one parka enough for the whole division of mosquitoes?


I trolled an orc on a Belorussian site by saying it was Finnish winter gear for the mosquitoes. I had a need to throw in the Winter War.

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Ukraine Has Received Over A Million Artillery Rounds From The U.S.


Ukraine's fight against Russia has gobbled up an incredible amount of artillery rounds, with over a million provided by the U.S. alone.




swp.thedrive.com

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 29, 2022)

It will be quickly followed by "Russian Forces Have Received A Million Artillery Rounds From The Ukrainians."

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 29, 2022)

A massive drone attack of 9 drones?????

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> A massive drone attack of 9 drones?????


There is a YouTube channel, "Suchomimus". He posts videos from drones and video from witnesses on site. He then geolocates the vid and places it on a map. He has drone footage from the drone attack boats. I just watched it.

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## MiTasol (Oct 29, 2022)

How Germany is indirectly arming Ukraine – DW – 10/28/2022


Germany has pledged to support Ukraine in its war against Russia with military equipment, but providing it as practically as possible hasn't been straightforward, often for historical reasons and routes via third countries like Greece. DW's Simon Young reports.




www.dw.com

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## MiTasol (Oct 29, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sink baby, sink!



but burn extreeeeemely rapidly first and leave a large blast radius when doing it

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

One of the fiercest battles of the war is looming. Some fear Russia is luring Ukrainian troops into a trap


In the battle for the key southern port of Kherson, Russian troops savage surrounding villages, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. But Ukrainian forces are gearing up for a showdown.




www.abc.net.au

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 29, 2022)

More on the attack to the black sea fleet. It included unmanned naval drones.









Ukraine Unleashes Mass Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack On Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters


Russia says Ukrainian aerial drones and unmanned surface vessels targeted the home of its Black Sea Fleet, damaging at least a minesweeper.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There is a YouTube channel, "Suchomimus". He posts videos from drones and video from witnesses on site. He then geolocates the vid and places it on a map. He has drone footage from the drone attack boats. I just watched it.



You need to drop a link most pronto.

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## Glider (Oct 29, 2022)

I would like to see the satellite photos of the area tomorrow. Knowing how loath Russia is to admit suffering any damage, they clearly lost something and there is a good chance it was something significant

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## SaparotRob (Oct 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> You need to drop a link most pronto.


How I do that again?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> How I do that again?



-Open the page containing the videos, right click on the browser address, select "copy", come to this thread, right-click in the reply box, and select "paste." It won't be embedded here, but those who wish to watch can do so.

Twitter vids of the attack can be viewed here: Ukraine Unleashes Mass Kamikaze Drone Boat Attack On Russia's Black Sea Fleet Headquarters

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 29, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Oct 29, 2022)

I’m looking forward to news after dawn tomorrow.









Russian naval base ‘hit by massive drone attack’


Explosions rocked the heavily fortified headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea yesterday amid reports that a Russian flagship had been damaged in a




www.thetimes.co.uk





paywall free version here archive.ph

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## manta22 (Oct 29, 2022)

A stunning breach of security- documents left behind by withdrawing Russian forces. Un- F'ing- believable!

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)

Russia halts Ukraine Black Sea grain exports, citing attack on Crimea


Russia suspends participation in a UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal after what it says was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea, dealing a blow to attempts to ease the global food crisis.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 29, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Oct 29, 2022)

When it nears the small boat it looks like somebody dove off of it (the small boat).

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## wlewisiii (Oct 29, 2022)



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## at6 (Oct 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelenskyy accuses fleeing Russians of stealing ambulances
> 
> 
> Russian forces in occupied Kherson are stealing medical equipment and ambulances in a bid to make the area uninhabitable, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.
> ...


So the Orcs have resolved their supply issue. It's called looting since they can't get anything from home.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> So the Orcs have resolved their supply issue. It's called looting since they can't get anything from home.


Apparently nothing Russia does is a war crime since it is still a "Special military operation".

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## J_P_C (Oct 30, 2022)

this are Ukrainians data - but so far they have been pretty credible - almost 1000 KIA in one day.... probably highest number reported since beginning - information blockade over Ukrainian's progresses seems to be pretty tight... Polish war correspondents are pretty tight lip right now except some announcements that situation is better than officially reported and watch for good news soon...

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## Dimlee (Oct 30, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Apparently nothing Russia does is a war crime since it is still a "Special military operation".


What a coincidence. I just read this on one Russian military blog.
"We do not commit war crimes.... We will explain to them[Ukrainans] what war crimes are. We will kill those who don't understand." 
Translation is mine.

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## Dimlee (Oct 30, 2022)

GTX said:


>



I suspect this is just a proof of concept. The test of own capability and of enemy's defence.
Two things I wonder about:
- any mothership involved?
- are they operated by humans or by AI in the attack?

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## Torch (Oct 30, 2022)

special ed said:


> How do the Ukrainians get the mosquitoes to bit only Russian troops?


They are trained to go after the odor of cheap vodka

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## vikingBerserker (Oct 30, 2022)

"Olympic Tank Turret Tossing Championship" current standings









AFU Warriors Show Head-Ripping Champion Tank Defeated


The turret of the tank got blown tens of meters up.




charter97.org

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The only thing Iran has gotten so far, is ten of their own killed last week.


I’d read that in the Israeli media but I can’t find any other mention.


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## Dimlee (Oct 30, 2022)

The friendly blogger reminded me about one historical event that happened exactly 108 years before the yesterday
s USV's attack in Sevastopol. It was dubbed _Sevastopolskaya pobudka_ - which can be translated as "Sevastopol's wake-up call".








Black Sea raid - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org




Russian article has a more detailed description of the operation, in particular, of the raid in Odessa where two Turkish destroyers entered Odessa harbour without almost any resistance and stayed there for more than an hour.








Севастопольская побудка — Википедия







ru.wikipedia.org

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## FLYBOYJ (Oct 30, 2022)

Hmmmmm......









Russia declares end of mobilization for Ukraine


STORY: Russia announced on Friday it had finished calling up reservists to fight in Ukraine, after drafting hundreds of thousands of people in a month, with more than a quarter of them already sent into battle.The divisive draft - Russia's first since World War Two - sent tens of thousands of...




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Oct 30, 2022)

I think the mobilization was " no longer needed" because it is now time for Russia's regularly scheduled annual draft call-ups.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think the mobilization was " no longer needed" because it is now time for Russia's regularly scheduled annual draft call-ups.


There’s no way the hundreds of thousands of young Russian men that had fled will return. If they settle permanently elsewhere this brain drain will have dire consequences for Russia.

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## GTX (Oct 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I think the mobilization was " no longer needed" because it is now time for Russia's regularly scheduled annual draft call-ups.


I understand the same

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## GTX (Oct 30, 2022)

Ukrainians left desperate for justice as loved ones disappear in war with Russia


Violence in Ukraine is systemic, conceived and implemented within the command structures of the Russian military, an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series Frontline finds.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 30, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> "Olympic Tank Turret Tossing Championship" current standings
> 
> 
> 
> ...


AFU tanks have the same flaw. I suppose the T-62 and M-55S do not have the exposed carousel. The latter actually looks impressive, for its age, and the updates listed here are impressive. I wonder if the reverse speed is the same abysmal 4 mph of other Soviet-origin designs.














Ukraine receives 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia


Ukraine has received 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Oct 30, 2022)

Don't you all love this parte of the article?

"_Admiral Kazimir Ketlinski assured the foreign minister that the Black Sea Fleet was "completely ready" for action_"



Dimlee said:


> The friendly blogger reminded me about one historical event that happened exactly 108 years before the yesterday
> s USV's attack in Sevastopol. It was dubbed _Sevastopolskaya pobudka_ - which can be translated as "Sevastopol's wake-up call".
> 
> 
> ...

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 30, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Don't you all love this parte of the article?
> 
> "_Admiral Kazimir Ketlinski assured the foreign minister that the Black Sea Fleet was "completely ready" for action_"


Hopefully tomorrow we have some high res. colour pics of the damaged ships.

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## MiTasol (Oct 30, 2022)

and maybe even a Russian ship or two peacefully sleeping on their sides

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 30, 2022)

I'm betting this presages a drive to either cut off Kherson directly via the east bank of the Dneiper, or perhaps mount a drive to the Azov coastline through Melitopol. In either event, damaging the Russian capability to provide naval fire support in defense could be the aim.


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## swampyankee (Oct 30, 2022)

special ed said:


> How do the Ukrainians get the mosquitoes to bit only Russian troops?


The key problem of biological warfare. Respecting nationality and borders is not something they're good at.

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm betting this presages a drive to either cut off Kherson directly via the east bank of the Dneiper, or perhaps mount a drive to the Azov coastline through Melitopol. In either event, damaging the Russian capability to provide naval fire support in defense could be the aim.


I’m thinking the battle for Kherson may go on for four to six months, at least until the 2023 spring muds have dried. If Russia loses Kherson they’ll likely lose Crimea, as it’s just down the road.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’m thinking the battle for Kherson may go on for four to six months, at least until the 2023 spring muds have dried. If Russia loses Kherson they’ll likely lose Crimea, as it’s just down the road.



Possible, for sure. It's got to be sloggy going there right now, but if the Ukrainians can control the road-net they may wish to pinch off the southern front sooner. A risky calculus no matter how we look at it.

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## at6 (Oct 30, 2022)

So if Russian atrocities are not war crimes, killing captured Orcs is not a violation of the Geneva Convention. Time to call Orc exterminators.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> Time to call Orc exterminators.


That would be the Ukrainian Army, right?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 30, 2022)

Ukraine: "We don't need no steenkin' badges."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 30, 2022)

An interesting vid on Russian missile usage:

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 31, 2022)

at6 said:


> So if Russian atrocities are not war crimes, killing captured Orcs is not a violation of the Geneva Convention. Time to call Orc exterminators.


Following Russia’s example would lead Ukraine nowhere positive. OTOH, taking the high road continues NATO and West lethal and humanitarian aid, and leads to Ukraine’s entry into the EU, NATO and the civilized world. Ukraine knows what it’s doing and is fighting within boundaries with perfection.

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## Dimlee (Oct 31, 2022)

In the meantime, GUR (Ukrainian intelligence) has informed that two Ka-52 were destroyed at the Veretye(Ostrov-5) airbase in Russian Federation.
Mosquitoes, I guess. Many swamps in that area.

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## GrauGeist (Oct 31, 2022)

That Azov mother/daughter team is keeping busy, it seems.

I'm just wondering if they let one or two mosquitoes out of the box at a time or release them all with specific instructions to each one beforehand...

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 31, 2022)

The instructions are encoded in the mRNA of the bloodmeal the mosquitos are fed just before they are released. The mRNA is absorbed by the mosquito, transforming it into a winged terror, bent on destruction.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 31, 2022)

Makes you glad you bought that tinfoil hat doesn't it ?

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## GrauGeist (Oct 31, 2022)

Tin hats are for amateurs.

Go large or go home!

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## WARSPITER (Oct 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Tin hats are for amateurs.
> 
> Go large or go home!
> 
> View attachment 692539


Decisions, decisions. Have a proper hat or have bolognese....

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## Admiral Beez (Oct 31, 2022)

Nice to see AFU air defences in action.

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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)

Blasts rock Kyiv, other Ukrainian cities cutting power and water supplies


Smoke is seen rising above Kyiv after a series of explosions, causing electricity and mobile phone network outages, as other cities report suffering damage to "critical infrastructure".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)

Russia's 'hunger games' move likely to force up food prices


Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine left dozens of countries teetering on the edge of famine. Now Russia has been accused of "blackmailing the world with hunger" by ending Russia's ceasefire.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Oct 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)

12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.


The formation, deployment and destruction of the 11th Army Corps tell a story that’s bigger than the tragic tale of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The corps, sandwiched between two NATO countries along a strategic sea, was supposed to give Russian forces an advantage in a global war.




www.forbes.com

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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)

To the Australian people, thank you from all Ukrainians


It’s Australia’s values – which people sometimes call the “fair go” or standing up for your mates against bullies – that bring Australia and Ukraine together across a vast geographical distance.




www.smh.com.au

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## GTX (Oct 31, 2022)

Our troops to train Ukraine forces - CONTACT magazine


Share the post "Our troops to train Ukraine forces" FacebookLinkedInPinterestTwitterShare…Email From January next year, Australia will join an international military



www.contactairlandandsea.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Oct 31, 2022)

Grain ships sail despite Moscow's pullout from deal; missiles rain on Ukraine


Ships brought grain from Ukrainian ports on Monday, suggesting Moscow had stopped short of reimposing a blockade that might have caused world hunger, despite suspending its participation in a U.N. programme to safely export grain from the war zone.




www.reuters.com

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## Greg Boeser (Oct 31, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Makes you glad you bought that tinfoil hat doesn't it ?


You dare to question the Science?!!

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## WARSPITER (Oct 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You dare to question the Science?!!
> View attachment 692569


Perish the thought!! Tinfoil is after all very scientific.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 31, 2022)

Leading by example?









Banker Oleg Tinkov renounces Russian citizenship over Ukraine


Billionaire oligarch Oleg Tinkov condemns "Putin fascism", furious at Russia's invasion of Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Oct 31, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perish the thought!! Tinfoil is after all very scientific.


But is the foil _actually_ tin or is it really just aluminum?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Oct 31, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Leading by example?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I can't imagine any Russian businessman being happy with this debacle. At least he has the stones to say as much.

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## WARSPITER (Oct 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> But is the foil _actually_ tin or is it really just aluminum?


Ah you nearly got me there except that I already know the only true tinfoil hat is made from tea infused Borg skin.

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## buffnut453 (Oct 31, 2022)

Three lives in Bakhmut:









Ukraine war: Tales of endurance and hardship as winter looms


Ukrainian civilians and troops paint a picture of endurance and hardship as winter approaches.



www.bbc.com

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## at6 (Nov 1, 2022)

It's Aluminum and my hat is two layers. I guess that I'm double protected.


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## J_P_C (Nov 1, 2022)

100% hit rate - freaking impressive

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## ThomasP (Nov 1, 2022)

re German military material supplied to Ukraine:

"Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government"

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## SaparotRob (Nov 1, 2022)

Great stuff!


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## GTX (Nov 1, 2022)

US-trained Afghan commandos say Russia trying to recruit them to fight in Ukraine


Afghan special forces soldiers who fought alongside American troops and then fled to Iran after the chaotic US withdrawal last year are being recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine, according to three former Afghan generals.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 1, 2022)

Putin says attacks on Ukraine infrastructure 'not all we could have done'


Russian President Vladimir Putin says strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure were in part a response to a drone attack on the Black Sea fleet, indicating more action could follow.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Nov 2, 2022)

The Ukrainian jet pilots hunting cruise missiles


Russia has launched hundreds of missiles and drone attacks on Ukraine in the past few weeks.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 2, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin says attacks on Ukraine infrastructure 'not all we could have done'
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin says strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure were in part a response to a drone attack on the Black Sea fleet, indicating more action could follow.
> ...


Makes perfect sense:
Putin must retaliate by attacking cities and civilian because his fleet was attacked - during a war.

That he started...

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 2, 2022)

Fighting back is not an acceptable response to a "special military operation"

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## GrauGeist (Nov 2, 2022)

Ahh...right, my bad.

Those naughty Ukrainians!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Makes perfect sense:
> Putin must retaliate by attacking cities and civilian because his fleet was attacked - during a war.
> 
> That he started...



Putin: _”Look at me!!! I’m a schoolyard bully. You are supposed to take my abuse and accept it. You cannot hit me back. If you do I’m going to throw a tantrum. Whaaa whaaa whaaaa.”_

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## manta22 (Nov 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> The Ukrainian jet pilots hunting cruise missiles
> 
> 
> Russia has launched hundreds of missiles and drone attacks on Ukraine in the past few weeks.
> ...


That reminds me of the chasing down of V1 Buzz Bombs.

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## J_P_C (Nov 2, 2022)

mutiny in freshly mobilized troops

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## GrauGeist (Nov 2, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> mutiny in freshly mobilized troops



Oops - they'll be in trouble when the NKVD internal troops arrive!

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## GTX (Nov 2, 2022)

Russian military officials have discussed when and how to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, US claims

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 2, 2022)

Rusia facing partisans in Ukrainia.









Ukraine Situation Report: Attacks Behind Russian Lines Crippling War Effort


Ukraine's 'partisan' fighters are disrupting Russian military operations and attacking collaborators, hampering Moscow's progress.




www.thedrive.com





If Putin is the history fanboy he is avowed, seems to be a bad apprentice.

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## GTX (Nov 2, 2022)

Russian soldiers took Anatolli to a garage. Hours later, a man arrived and the tools were brought out


In the wake of Russia's retreat from eastern Ukraine, the horrors of life under occupation are now emerging as survivors share their stories.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 2, 2022)

Ukraine grain export deal back on track after Russia resumes participation


Russia says it will resume its participation in a deal freeing up grain exports from war-torn Ukraine, reversing a move that world leaders had said threatened to exacerbate global hunger.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 2, 2022)

World on 'brink of nuclear war', claims Russia


Russia on Wednesday claimed that the world was on the brink of nuclear conflict, accusing the West of provocation.




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## swampyankee (Nov 3, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Rusia facing partisans in Ukrainia.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe he's planning on losing, so the US and West supplies lots of money to rebuild, as was done with Germany and Japan. He may not remember getting involved in a losing war can result in being shot and strung up from a lamppost

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 3, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Maybe he's planning on losing, so the US and West supplies lots of money to rebuild,


My prediction Is that a lot of the rebuilding funds will come from China. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to embed itself in what becomes post-Russian Eastern Europe, where Moscow has lost all prestige and influence in the region. The ‘Stans, less the Afghans have already switched their leanings from Russia to China.







Beijing need only to bring the Georgians and Ukrainians under their sphere and their new Silk Road will be complete. This may include a China-led canal linking the Caspian and Black Seas through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia. China will definitely play a bigger role in the vacuum that is a collapsing Russia.

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## Denniss (Nov 3, 2022)

The Ukrainians will remember the enthusiastic support from China vs Russia, they'll accept their bribe money only if there's not enough monay available from actually supporting nations.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 3, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The Ukrainians will remember the enthusiastic support from China vs Russia, they'll accept their bribe money only if there's not enough monay available from actually supporting nations.


Ukraine is still a former Soviet Republic with all the foundational corruption. China will exploit this postwar. And Europe and the US won’t have the trillions in cash to rebuild Ukraine.


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## J_P_C (Nov 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukraine is still a former Soviet Republic with all the foundational corruption. China will exploit this postwar. And Europe and the US won’t have the trillions in cash to rebuild Ukraine.


well, i tend not to agree with you - Ukraine is country in the transition period - more like Poland was in the end of 80's. They need time to fix internal problems and find their way - but it is clearly visible they are proceeding right direction - surprisingly transformation of their armed forces have been very, very successful. China can do what you have mentioned if so called "old democracies" let them to do so. One is for sure - world will be quite different after the war dust will settle down.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 3, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> One is for sure - world will be quite different after the war dust will settle down.



One can only hope the dust that's settling isn't nuclear fallout. 

Great post, BTW. Agree 100% with everything you're saying.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 3, 2022)

The entire reason for Russia moving into Ukraine territories in 2014 is because the people rejected Russian political puppets and the government was cracking down on corruption.

This of course was a clear sign of Nazi shenanigans and Putin had to intervene..

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 3, 2022)

_KYIV, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Russian forces are likely to abandon their foothold on the west bank of Ukraine's Dnipro River, a Russian-installed occupation official said on Thursday, signalling a massive Russian retreat that, if confirmed, would be a major turning point in the war.

Ukrainian officials remained cautious about signs that Russia was abandoning the area, and there was silence from higher-ups in Moscow over the announcement of what would amount to one of Russia's most humiliating retreats since the invasion.

"Most likely our units, our soldiers, will leave for the left (eastern) bank," Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-installed deputy civilian administrator of the Kherson region, said in an interview with Solovyov Live, a pro-Kremlin online media outlet.

The area includes Kherson city, capital of the region of the same name, and the only major city Russia had captured intact since its invasion in February. It also includes one side of a huge dam across the Dnipro which controls the water supply to irrigate Crimea, the peninsula Russia has occupied since 2014.

[...]

Speculation swirled on Thursday over whether Russia was indeed pulling out, after photos circulated on the internet showing the main administrative building in Kherson city with Russia's flag no longer flying atop it.

Russia has fought for months to hang on to the pocket of land it holds on the west bank at the mouth of the river that bisects Ukraine. Moscow had sent tens of thousands of troops to reinforce the area, one of its biggest battlefield priorities._









Putin endorses evacuation of parts of Ukraine's Kherson region


Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly endorsed the evacuation of civilians from parts of Ukraine's southern Kherson region on Friday, the latest sign of Russia's retreat in one of the most bitterly contested areas in Ukraine.




www.reuters.com





I don't know how the Russians can stand all this victory.

On a serious note, if confirmed this is great news, as it will relieve pressure on Odessa and the grain shipments.

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## Glider (Nov 3, 2022)

There are a number of reports about this rebellion of troops who made the mistake of believing what they were offered when signing up.

Russian conscripts mutiny as Kremlin scraps £4.2k payment to families

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 3, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe parading P.O.W.s is a war crime. It isn't permitted by the Geneva Conventions.


I think we can excuse this as not parading, but instead showcasing the good conditions of their captivity. As I wrote earlier, they're probably eating better than they did at home.

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## pbehn (Nov 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think we can excuse this as not parading, but instead showcasing the good conditions of their captivity. As I wrote earlier, they're probably eating better than they did at home.



If it was a soldier from Ukraine with a similar message would you accept it or say he was threatened, bribed or something else for propaganda purposes?

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## GrauGeist (Nov 3, 2022)

It seems to me that Ukraine making these videos are actually aimed more at the Russians than anyone.

They know that the Russian soldiers are realizing that this "special operation" has mired down into a pointless meat grinder and offers them a way to get out alive.


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## pbehn (Nov 3, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It seems to me that Ukraine making these videos are actually aimed more at the Russians than anyone.
> 
> They know that the Russian soldiers are realizing that this "special operation" has mired down into a pointless meat grinder and offers them a way to get out alive.


Isnt that propaganda?

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 3, 2022)

Definitely


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## GrauGeist (Nov 3, 2022)

pbehn said:


> Isnt that propaganda?


Well, it might fall under that definition to a certain degree.

But in this case, it's more of a Public Service Announcement.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 3, 2022)

PSAs are always propaganda.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think we can excuse this as not parading, but instead showcasing the good conditions of their captivity. As I wrote earlier, they're probably eating better than they did at home.




The Geneva Convention makes no allowance for these sorts of videos one way or the other. It could certainly be argued that these videos create conditions for the arousal of public curiosity, which is explicitly forbidden by Article 13.

I think it was John Keegan who pointed out that conditions in the opponents' PoW camps is one of the things soldiers in combat take seriously and find out quickly through the grapevine anyway.


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## fubar57 (Nov 3, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-putin-war-crimes-1.6636688




https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-invasion-day-253-1.6639295

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## manta22 (Nov 3, 2022)

pbehn said:


> Isnt that propaganda?


Not if it's true.

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## pbehn (Nov 3, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Not if it's true.


What is true? It would be an especially bad hospital that had conditions as bad or worse than the front, if that were so soldiers would so soldiers would stay at the front, as they did in the Crimean war before Nightingale arrived We will not find out what is true for years, if ever.


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## manta22 (Nov 3, 2022)

pbehn said:


> What is true? It would be an especially bad hospital that had conditions as bad or worse than the front, if that were so soldiers would so soldiers would stay at the front, as they did in the Crimean war before Nightingale arrived We will not find out what is true for years, if ever.


"True" is what actually is or was- there is only ONE truth. Weasel-wording truth doesn't change it.


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 3, 2022)

Propaganda is any information used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.
Pretty much everything a government puts out is propaganda. Especially in wartime.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 3, 2022)

Well, considering the murderous, civilian-targeting Russians they're facing, if this wanton PR exercise is the extent of Ukraine‘s Geneva Convention contraventions then I think we can give them a pass. They’re trying to show the world and Russia that Ukraine is a humane player in this war.


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 3, 2022)

I think they need to be punished. No Netflix for a week!

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## buffnut453 (Nov 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I think they need to be punished. No Netflix for a week!



That’s a reward!

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## SaparotRob (Nov 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> PSAs are always propaganda.


By definition, methinks. Propaganda is government info, pro, con, indifferent. Department of Agriculture releases on soil, seed, etc. are propaganda. At least that was its original meaning. Awful originally meant awe inspiring.

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## pbehn (Nov 3, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "True" is what actually is or was- there is only ONE truth. Weasel-wording truth doesn't change it.


What you see in a video is true, unless actors are used. But with the video in question that is one man in one room. It may be a one room hospital, the only one in the country, or it may be the same as 500 other rooms in the same hospital. How much what you see in the video is representative of anything else is the big question and there isnt one answer to that.

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## manta22 (Nov 3, 2022)

pbehn said:


> What you see in a video is true, unless actors are used. But with the video in question that is one man in one room. It may be a one room hospital, the only one in the country, or it may be the same as 500 other rooms in the same hospital. How much what you see in the video is representative of anything else is the big question and there isnt one answer to that.


Truth is truth. I'm not refering to any particular video or incident, just the concept of what is truth.


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## pbehn (Nov 3, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Truth is truth. I'm not refering to any particular video or incident, just the concept of what is truth.


Yes truth is truth, as long as you dont refer to any video, or incident, or anything specific truth is always true.

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## manta22 (Nov 3, 2022)

pbehn said:


> Yes truth is truth, as long as you dont refer to any video, or incident, or anything specific truth is always true.


Whatever.


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## MiTasol (Nov 3, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Propaganda is any information used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.
> Pretty much everything a government puts out is propaganda. Especially in wartime.



And the old saying "the first casualty in war is truth" is, was, and always will be, true

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 3, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Truth is truth. I'm not refering to any particular video or incident, just the concept of what is truth.



Reality is objective, but how humans perceive reality is not; it is filtered through both perceptual and mental filters. It follows, then, that while what is true exists objectively, the human ability to grasp it may not exist, as a result of subjective perspectives. That necessarily twists what this or that person thinks of as true. This is a conundrum we must all deal with.

As much as I detest philosophy, epistemology is one of its few useful contributions to human thinking.

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## WARSPITER (Nov 3, 2022)

Yeah, what he said....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 3, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Yeah, what he said....



I forgot to add that that was just my own opinion.

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## WARSPITER (Nov 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I forgot to add that that was just my own opinion.


You don't have to. It is also a really good summation of how perceptions can take an objective argument and make it into a subjective one.
Even proven science can be discounted in favour of what is perceived to be correct. A good example is stomach ulcers. Even though 
researchers proved that they are caused by a virus (I think) they were poo pooed by the psych industry as for over half a century there
had been a great little earner going in the stress causes ulcers field. It took one of the researchers to actually infect himself to bring on a stomach
ulcer before the majority would listen.

Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine is now at the stage where the definition of truth is being confused with the definition of ludicrous.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 3, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> You don't have to. It is also a really good summation of how perceptions can take an objective argument and make it into a subjective one.
> Even proven science can be discounted in favour of what is perceived to be correct. A good example is stomach ulcers. Even though
> researchers proved that they are caused by a virus (I think) they were poo pooed by the psych industry as for over half a century there
> had been a great little earner going in the stress causes ulcers field. It took one of the researchers to actually infect himself to bring on a stomach
> ...



Put shortly, the world exists outside and apart from us, but what we sense, know, or understand of the world exists only between our ears. 

As Frank Herbert wrote in his classic _Dune_: "Think you of the fact that a deaf person cannot hear. Then, what deafness may we not all possess? What senses do we lack that we cannot see and cannot hear another world all around us?"

Reality is firm, but so are the limits on knowledge. The wise man understands that what he thinks is true may only be a miniscule representation of what actually is.

I think I've had enough beer for tonight.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 3, 2022)

Hope this reporting is accurate:









Russian forces leave checkpoints in Chornobaivka, several other settlements in Kherson region


Russian invaders have left checkpoints in Chornobaivka, Stepanivka and Bilozerka in the Kherson region, with the number of Russian military personnel falling in Kherson. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## buffnut453 (Nov 4, 2022)

Hope this isn't true:









Retreat or a trap? Russia signals a surprise withdrawal from a key city, but Ukrainians are wary


“To me, the preponderance of evidence points to a Russian decision to steadily retreat from the right river bank and avoid being cut off there,” one expert said.




www.nbcnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hope this reporting is accurate:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I wonder if the silence of the last week or so is both sides fighting to limit the information-space around this battle? The Russians clearly wouldn't want to admit a defeat, and the Ukrainians have a vested interest in closing down speculation?

I sure hope this is true. As I wrote above, abandoning Kherson relieves some pressure from Odessa.

It'd be a real shame if the Russians found a Ukrainian brigade or two raiding behind Sevastopol.

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## at6 (Nov 4, 2022)

With Putin constantly talking about nuclear war he is beginning sound more like Hitler every day. Hide in a bunker while your nation is being destroyed because they "don't deserve you" and should die with you.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Hope this isn't true:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The Russians haven't done anything smartly in this war. I think they are setting what they believe is a trap in Kherson, but the AFU aren't stupid. If there is a large Russian force dug in, now that the civilian population has mostly fled, Kherson will be surrounded and cut off, leaving a huge number of Russian troops hungry and idle in Kherson whilst the AFU make a straight run for Crimea. 

If Kherson is a trap, it's for the Russians. But credible media suggests the Russians are running.









Russia’s Army Keeps Collapsing After Falling Back in Kherson


Ukraine has made huge inroads in the south and east.




foreignpolicy.com

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## buffnut453 (Nov 4, 2022)

This is worth a read. Also recommend watching the video clip of Jeremy Bowen who provides interesting insights into the challenges of being a reporter in the middle of a war:









Russia-Ukraine war: At the front line of Ukraine's struggle for Kherson


Jeremy Bowen reports on the fight for a city that Kyiv is desperate to recapture from Russia's army.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> probably one of the finest artillery units in the world in action


They do look impressive.











Ukraine Says Received ‘World’s Best’ 155mm Cutting-Edge, Self-Propelled Artillery ‘Archer’ From Sweden


Ukraine has received Archer 'World's Best' 155mm Archer Cutting-Edge Self-Propelled Artillery from Sweden amid bombardment from Russia




eurasiantimes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

The Vampire looks cool. Though delivery sometime in 2023 is a disappointment. 









VAMPIREs in Ukraine: L3's New Rocket System


The Ukrainian battlefields will soon be the proving ground for L3’s new VAMPIRE rocket system designed to mount to any truck with a flatbed.




greydynamics.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 4, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Not if it's true.


Actually:
If its true is propaganda.
If not, it's fake propaganda.

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## Glider (Nov 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Actually:
> If its true is propaganda.
> If not, it's fake propaganda.


Where soes 'Alternative Facts' fit into this?

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 4, 2022)

Anyone has seen another source of this?
If true, considering the range and payload of storm shadow, ATACMS would not be an escalation anymore. More like a de-escalation 









Storm Shadow deep strike missile on Ukrainian supersonic Fencer


Poland is the integrator country that has undertaken the mission to field the Storm Shadow long-range, conventionally armed, deep-strike missile, known as SCALP




bulgarianmilitary.com

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## pbehn (Nov 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> Where soes 'Alternative Facts' fit into this?


On the shelf below "Known unknowns" and next to "Unknown unknowns"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Actually:
> If its true is propaganda.
> If not, it's fake propaganda.



Or as others call it “Alternative Facts”

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## SaparotRob (Nov 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> Where soes 'Alternative Facts' fit into this?


There’s so many to choose from. I prefer It’s aliens operating out of the Antarctic. By the great big wall that BiffF15 and FlyboyJ will swear aren’t there.
They’re in on it.

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## manta22 (Nov 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Actually:
> If its true is propaganda.
> If not, it's fake propaganda.


Truth is truth but truth can also be used for propaganda purposes.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 4, 2022)

Ain’t that the truth.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Actually:
> If its true is propaganda.
> If not, it's fake propaganda.


I keep skipping ahead in this thread to get past the propaganda debate. Does anyone actually care if Ukraine espouses a little self aggrandizement, exaggerated or otherwise? All I care is that they’re kicking Russian ass.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I keep skipping ahead in this thread to get past the propaganda debate.

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## tomo pauk (Nov 4, 2022)

A gutsy shot:

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

tomo pauk said:


> A gutsy shot:




Ammo cooking off…


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

_FRONTLINE WEST OF KHERSON, Ukraine/KYIV, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly endorsed the evacuation of civilians from parts of Ukraine's southern Kherson region on Friday, the latest sign of Russia's retreat in one of the most bitterly contested areas in Ukraine.

"Now, of course, those who live in Kherson should be removed from the zone of the most dangerous actions, *because the civilian population should not suffer*," Putin told pro-Kremlin activists as he marked Russia's Day of National Unity._

[Emphasis added -- Thump]









Putin endorses evacuation of parts of Ukraine's Kherson region


Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly endorsed the evacuation of civilians from parts of Ukraine's southern Kherson region on Friday, the latest sign of Russia's retreat in one of the most bitterly contested areas in Ukraine.




www.reuters.com





That explains the cruise-missiles targeting power and water installations, sure. More likely a matter of preparing the city for a battle or siege. It's funny how he thinks folks should believe his tripe.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 4, 2022)

I always thought (and most in this forum I presume) that the best strategy against Putin's agression was to confront him, stay firm, and make no concessions.









Grain deal U-turn offers lesson in calling Vladimir Putin’s bluff


Russian leader has backed down in face of defiance, and move also shows Turkey’s growing influence




www.theguardian.com

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

I am sure to the Russians, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians must feel like the devil...









'Stop the supreme ruler of hell': Russia's former president delivers wild war rhetoric


Dmitry Medvedev, who led Russia from 2008 to 2012, issues a bizarre speech as President Vladimir Putin acknowledges the worsening situation in Kherson for the first time.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

'How do you reconcile this?' A cameraman's reflection on a harrowing assignment in war-torn Ukraine


Cameraman Tom Hancock gives an insight into the challenges of filming a Foreign Correspondent story in Ukraine, dodging land mines and confronting the sight and unbearable stench of a mass grave.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

Nuclear watchdog says there's no evidence of 'dirty bomb' at Ukraine sites


The UN nuclear watchdog says it has found no sign of undeclared nuclear activity at three sites in Ukraine that it inspected at Kyiv's request in response to Russian allegations that work was being done on a "dirty bomb".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

From ISW:

_*It is still unclear whether Russian forces will defend Kherson City despite the ongoing withdrawal of some Russian elements from northwestern Kherson Oblast.*_
_*Russian forces prematurely deployed newly mobilized personnel to offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in the pursuit of minimal and operationally insignificant territorial gains.*_
_*Russian outlets continued to publish contradictory and confusing reports about the dismissal of Colonel General Alexander Lapin from the position of CMD commander or commander of the Russian "central" forces.*_
_*Russian authorities may be setting conditions to imminently transfer the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to the Russian power grid.*_
_*Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.*_
_*Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.*_
_*The Russian military continues to face pronounced issues in the supply of critical military equipment.*_
_*The Russian Ministry of Defense is likely continuing mobilization efforts covertly.*_
_*Russian occupation officials continued forced evacuations in Kherson Oblast.*_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

The Lancet Drone/loitering munition shown in some of the posts above:






ZALA Lancet - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Wondering why the gunboat is not moving at all and appears to be empty. Looks like a staged test to me.

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

Interesting comment: "...The volume of such videos released in a few days suggests a propaganda push to persuade people that Russia has at least one weapon that works...."









Russian Videos Reveal New Details Of Its Loitering Munitions


Russia is now deploying more of the new Lancet-3 loitering munition against Ukrainian artillery, tanks and air defenses. But the new weapon has its weaknesses, as videos released by Russia reveal.




www.forbes.com

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Wondering why the gunboat is not moving at all and appears to be empty. Looks like a staged test to me.


It wouldn't surprise me if it did occur, after all we need to acknowledge that the Ukrainians also are taking losses in this war. That said, the Russians did capture some of the Gyurza M class gunboats so a staged video is also possible.

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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>




God-_damn_, that looks good.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Ammo cooking off…


What’s with Russian tankers just driving around seemingly aimlessly, and without infantry support?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What’s with Russian tankers just driving around seemingly aimlessly, and without infantry support?




Poor leadership
Poor training
Conscripts who don’t want to be there
Poor tactics
No tactical awareness
Just winging it

I’m sure we could all create a thread and simply take turns adding to the list.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Poor leadership
> Poor training
> Conscripts who don’t want to be there
> Poor tactics
> ...


There must be right-leaning Germans today thinking that if their grandparents had only encountered these sort of Russians they’d be across the Caucasus by spring 1942.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What’s with Russian tankers just driving around seemingly aimlessly, and without infantry support?



That has been a Russian problem since the beginning of this invasion. Leadership is not enforcing doctrinal principles in the field, probably because they're under such pressure to produce results that they can't or won't wait to ensure healthy combined-arms activity.

It's hard to tell if their use of tanks is aimless, or a response to the exigencies of the battlefield, from a video. But it's easy to see that whatever the reason, they are certainly forgetting that tanks aren't made of kryptonite, and need infantry screens so long as they're in close terrain.

Then, too, after all the losses of IFVs/APCs, they may simply have a shortage of equipment to keep the infantry in step with their armor, and are deciding to hit with what they have.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There must be right-leaning Germans today thinking that if their grandparents had only encountered these sort of Russians they’d be across the Caucasus by spring 1942.



Patton in 1945 would be licking his chops and having his dinner-table set.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

I wonder how the M55s are doing?









The M-55S tank: a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 for the Armed Forces • Mezha.Media


Slovenia transfers 28 of its own M-55S tanks to Ukraine. This is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 tank.




mezha.media


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## SaparotRob (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> I am sure to the Russians, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians must feel like the devil...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What some people would say just to avoid being thrown out a window.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There must be right-leaning Germans today thinking that if their grandparents had only encountered these sort of Russians they’d be across the Caucasus by spring 1942.


Heck, they’d make it to Manchuria.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> What some people would say just to avoid being thrown out a window.



Never underestimate the motivational impact of a potential defenestration.

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## Glider (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



I think the first one ay have been just damaged. There doesn't seem to have been catastrophic explosion and the bomb seems to have a little short.


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There must be right-leaning Germans today thinking that if their grandparents had only encountered these sort of* Russians* they’d be across the Caucasus by spring 1942.


Russians? How about SOVIETS?

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## Glider (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Why would it be stationary in open waters?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> I think the first one ay have been just damaged. There doesn't seem to have been catastrophic explosion and the bomb seems to have a little short.


It does go to show that the Russians are learning and getting the necessary lethal tactical drones.


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 4, 2022)

Glider said:


> Where soes 'Alternative Facts' fit into this?


My propaganda Trump's your propaganda.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 4, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> There’s so many to choose from. I prefer It’s aliens operating out of the Antarctic. By the great big wall that BiffF15 and FlyboyJ will swear aren’t there.
> They’re in on it.


Git a rope!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> My propaganda Trump's your propaganda.



I see what you did there…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 4, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Who are the Nazis? I thought this was the moniker the Russians used for the Ukrainians. Has it flipped now, with the Nazi monitor being the Ukrainians for the Russians? Is everyone a Nazi now?

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## wlewisiii (Nov 4, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Nov 4, 2022)

Ad: Come and get it....slightly charred SPG-9 Recoilless rifle. Only fired once

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## WARSPITER (Nov 4, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> My propaganda Trump's your propaganda.


I'll see your propaganda and raise you one heresay.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 4, 2022)

Hearsay, or heresy? I'm confused.
😕

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## WARSPITER (Nov 4, 2022)

Heresay. Heresay is a very powerful tool as everyone likes to be right and passing on something that so many others
are saying makes it more right the more it's said. 

To match what Iraised it to you will need a heresay or two snippets of fake news.

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## hawkeye2an (Nov 4, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Show THAT to a few Russians, maybe they'll realize they'll eat better if they surrender

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 4, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Heresay. Heresay is a very powerful tool as everyone likes to be right and passing on something that so many others
> are saying makes it more right the more it's said.
> 
> To match what Iraised it to you will need a heresay or two snippets of fake news.


Oh, yeah? Well I raise you a full blown conspiracy theory!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 4, 2022)

Alright now…


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## GrauGeist (Nov 5, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> Show THAT to a few Russians, maybe they'll realize they'll eat better if they surrender


That looked really good.

Hell, I could almost smell it while I was watching the video.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 5, 2022)

Speaking of death from natural causes due to gravity, whatever happened to the Russian MoD spokesman who said "don't ask about the Iranian drones" on an open mike?
Also someone posted a link that discussed two Russian FSB(?) types who advised Putler to attack Ukraine, "two, three days tops". Did the operatives mentioned fall out of anything or did they shoot themselves in the head 7 or 8 times, pausing only once to reload?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 5, 2022)

Czech tanks for Ukrainia









Ukraine To Get 90 T-72B Tanks From Czech Republic


The U.S. and Netherlands will split the $90 million cost to refurbish the Czech tanks as part of a $400 million aid package announced Friday.




www.thedrive.com

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## Snautzer01 (Nov 5, 2022)

Go cloggies go.

These clogs are made for walking
And that's just what they'll do
One of these days these clogs are gonna walk all over all th russian sobs and you.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 5, 2022)

Glider said:


> Why would it be stationary in open waters?


Because if it moves the drone can't hit?

The boat looks empty, you see nobody either before or after the hit. Looks like a staged vid made purely for propaganda purposes.
I'm actually wondering if its a real boat or a wood and cardboard fake.

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## swampyankee (Nov 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> PSAs are always propaganda.


So is advertising, in general.

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## swampyankee (Nov 5, 2022)

Glider said:


> Where soes 'Alternative Facts' fit into this?


Propaganda. Anyhow, attacking the press is a favorite move of a authoritarian regimes and wannabes

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## swampyankee (Nov 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I always thought (and most in this forum I presume) that the best strategy against Putin's agression was to confront him, stay firm, and make no concessions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That may work in this case, but it's also failed, as in both North Korea and Iran's current nuclear programs and the older ones on India and Pakistan. In real life, bullies don't always back down when confronted.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 5, 2022)

ok, lets stop going down that rabbit hole. We all know who and what we are talking about.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

_WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - A train crossed from North Korea into Russia on Friday, two days after the United States said it had information indicating Pyongyang is covertly supplying Russia with artillery shells for its war in Ukraine, a Washington think tank said, citing commercial satellite imagery.

The 38 North project, which monitors North Korean developments, said it was the first time such a train movement had been observed on the route in several years, although Russia's veterinary service reported on Wednesday that a train had crossed the border into North Korea carrying horses.

"It is impossible to determine the purpose of the train from the imagery, but the crossing comes amid reports of arms sales from North Korea to Russia and a general expectation of the resumption of trade between the two countries," 38 North said._









Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says


The crossing came after reports said Pyongyang may be supplying Russia with artillery shells for its war in Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## Denniss (Nov 5, 2022)

That train would be a nice target for some well placed explosives .......

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## GrauGeist (Nov 5, 2022)

Denniss said:


> That train would be a nice target for some well placed explosives .......


Or a "cigarette smoking accident"...

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 5, 2022)

They say that the permafrost is melting in Siberia. Giving off methane gas. Smoking would be very unsafe.

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## Frog (Nov 5, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Heresay. Heresay is a very powerful tool as everyone likes to be right and passing on something that so many others
> are saying makes it more right the more it's said.
> 
> To match what Iraised it to you will need a heresay or two snippets of fake news.



Hershey tastes better.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 5, 2022)

If I were Putin, I'd be questioning the fitness of North Korean munitions.

They've only been used to annoy South Korea and execute party officials who fell out of favor.

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## GTX (Nov 5, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 5, 2022)

Ukraine conflict: General Atomics ‘committed' to providing MQ-9 UAVs to Ukraine


General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc (GA-ASI) is committed to providing its MQ-9 family of medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to...



www.janes.com

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## GTX (Nov 5, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 5, 2022)

Maybe not sexy news but still important:

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 5, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Hearsay, or heresy? I'm confused.
> 😕


Fer krissake lern to spel, dammit!

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## peiper (Nov 5, 2022)

..I said this when it started = most wars are contained with no _clear_ winner or loser...,,this one has been contained [ so far ] .....appears the Russians are losing a lot of men, equipment, etc .....but what are the objectives?
..if I may use the Korean War for an _example_: [ if not, please advise ]
many people think the Korean War was a stalemate..but objectives were completed:
1. the US, UN did complete the UN resolution's objective of removing the NKs from the South
--but the UN took massive defeats-lost a lot of men,etc
2. China did complete the objective of keeping the UN off its border, etc and away from the power plants --but also took massive defeats
3. South Korea kept its sovereignty
4. NK got walloped and totally failed
-so, the example shows no clear winners-losers....war and politics more complicated than many think

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 5, 2022)

peiper said:


> .....but what are the objectives?


That's pretty clear.
*Russia* - Russify Ukrainian people, erase their national identity, and turn them into a vassal buffer state.
* Ukraine* - Eject all invaders and their aiders-and-abetters from within historical (pre-2014) territory of Ukraine, and pursue a western style democratic state with a distinctive Ukrainian culture.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If I were Putin, I'd be questioning the fitness of North Korean munitions.
> 
> They've only been used to annoy South Korea and execute party officials who fell out of favor.


I thought they were thrown to the dogs.


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## fubar57 (Nov 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I thought they were thrown to the dogs.


North Korea does it big time. One official was taken out with a mortar and another with an anti-aircraft gun

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## SaparotRob (Nov 5, 2022)

Can anybody go there and shoot at North Korean officials? I don't want to be a traitor but that would be a great way for Beloved Dumpling to bring in hard (not roubles) currency.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

Frog said:


> Hershey tastes better.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I thought they were thrown to the dogs.



What dogs are left?

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## MiTasol (Nov 5, 2022)

Good question - they have probably all been eaten

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## MiTasol (Nov 5, 2022)

It is a pity that the Ukrainians can't dump large truckloads of epsom salts into the water canal to Crimea once they recapture it and give the orcs the actual sh one t's as well as the figurative ones.

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## MiTasol (Nov 5, 2022)

Ukraine suffered a comms outage when 1,300 SpaceX satellite units went offline over funding issues | CNN Politics


Ukraine's fears that its troops  may lose access to Elon Musk's crucial Starlink internet service deepened in the past week after 1,300 of the military's satellite units went offline, according to two sources familiar with the outage.




edition.cnn.com





The last paragraph is the killer _As a result, Musk's control of the signal gives him significant sway over the battlefield at a time when he has come under heavy criticism for arguing that Ukraine should sue for peace and give up some of its territory._

Is Musk trying to force Ukraine to give up Crimea?

I am glad I do not use any of his products

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## GrauGeist (Nov 5, 2022)

If Musk is actually behind the blackout and subsequent manipulation of Ukraine military communications, he risks falling from favor in the public and stockholder's eye - not a wise move on his behalf.

As far as ding-dong Jong goes, he executed his defense minister and eleven musicians with anti-aircraft cannon. He then had tanks grind their bits into the ground.

He also executed his defense minister and others by Mortar.

He executed his deputy security minister and most of the minister's cabinet with flame throwers.

The guy is sadistic asshole that rivals Pol Pot.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

The optics of cutting Ukraine out of Starlink would work against the feelings of his consumer base in Tesla buyers and perhaps even NASA, given how the current administration has (gladly!) been pretty strong in supporting Ukraine.

Even if this is accidental, consumer response will probably trend to the negative simply because losing coverage from more than a thousand satellites is not a good look for a space company.

Either way, Musk will come out of this looking worse and perhaps suffering at the level of the bottom line.

I hope it goes without saying that I think he's a twatwaffle of the first order, a toxic combination of narcissism, expert syndrome, and being insanely rich. I hope the Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again and his takeover of Twitter kills that cesspool.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The optics of cutting Ukraine out of Starlink would work against the feelings of his consumer base in Tesla buyers and perhaps even NASA, given how the current administration has (gladly!) been pretty strong in supporting Ukraine.


Worse, Musk could see his companies or parts thereof expropriated and nationalized by the US govt. Washington won’t put up with any crap from Elon, thinking either you’re with us or against us, there is no squishy middle.









Elon Musk's company should be 'nationalized' for Ukraine, Atlantic writer argues


The Atlantic writer David Frum argued that Elon Musk’s company Starlink needs to be nationalized to continue to provide free internet to Ukrainian citizens.




www.foxnews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Worse, Musk could see his companies or parts thereof expropriated and nationalized by the US govt. Washington won’t put up with any crap from Elon, thinking either you’re with us or against us, there is no squishy middle.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm not sure the American political environment would support that, but for obvious reasons won't go any further.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not sure the American political environment would support that, but for obvious reasons won't go any further.


It’s rare, such as in WW1 when the US government nationalized all US railways and telephone systems. As for Elon, causing frustration to US government policy is only inviting trouble.






List of nationalizations by country - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It’s rare, such as in WW1 when the US government nationalized all US railways and telephone systems. As for Elon, causing frustration to US government policy is only inviting trouble.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



But again, a different political environment, discussion of which differences would likely broach the rules. I do agree that whether intentional or accidental, this outage will hurt his brand a bit.

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## at6 (Nov 5, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I thought they were thrown to the dogs.


They are thrown to the dogs. Then Kim eats the dogs.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> But again, a different political environment, discussion of which differences would likely broach the rules. I do agree tat whether intentional or accidental, this outage will hurt his brand a bit.


True, but imagine if pre-PH, Ford announced after agreeing to make thousands of trucks for lend lease for the USSR that half way through he‘d changed his mind, and that Stalin should settle with Hitler. And such a move might not be so fantastical, Ford was a bit of a genius nutter himself.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> True, but imagine if pre-PH, Ford announced after agreeing to make thousands of trucks for lend lease for the USSR that half way through he‘d changed his mind, and that Stalin should settle with Hitler. And such a move might not be so fantastical, Ford was a bit of a genius nutter himself.



Forgive what may be an ignorant question, but did that actually happen?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Forgive what may be an ignorant question, but did that actually happen?


No, that’s just my mind. But Ford would have been nationalized, like Elon might be if he keeps screwing around.


Snautzer01 said:


> Go cloggies go.
> 
> These clogs are made for walking
> And that's just what they'll do
> ...



These NATO refurb tanks must now be some of the best ever that rolled out of Russian factories. Too bad the reverse speed is still rubbish.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, that’s just my mind. But Ford would have been nationalized, like Elon might be if he keeps screwing around.



No, nationalizing a corporation will not happen in modern America. We've wandered afield a little, and let's get it away from that political discussion, no?

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 5, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, that’s just my mind. But Ford would have been nationalized, like Elon might be if he keeps screwing around.
> 
> 
> These NATO refurb tanks must now be some of the best ever that rolled out of Russian factories. Too bad the reverse speed is still rubbish.


Ol' Henry, like Lindbergh and many other industrialists admired naziism for its social efficiency and discipline.


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 5, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Ol' Henry, like Lindbergh and many other industrialists admired naziism for its social efficiency and discipline.


They never got to tour a concentration camp, where all the undesirables had been sent.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We've wandered afield a little, and let's get it away from that political discussion, no?


Agreed. But watch it Elon.

Thoughts on the best tanks in the Ukraine war? NATO L7-armed Slovenian M-55S vs. T-90M?











Ukrainian Forces Capture Russia's Most Advanced Tank


Photographs uploaded by an Ukrainian tanker show a Russian T-90M main battle tank captured after being abandoned by retreating Russian troops.




www.overtdefense.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 5, 2022)

"Best crew" would be my guess.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 5, 2022)

Starlink *might* be nationalized *if* the U.S. were at war under a Federal Emergency Act, but it's not, so it won't happen.

What will happen, is Musk will lose market share sales and come under scrutiny if he keeps fooling around.

He's a narcissist first and foremost and is most likely trying to play hero and win a Nobel Peace Prize in order to up his street cred.

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## MiTasol (Nov 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I hope it goes without saying that I think he's a twatwaffle of the first order, a toxic combination of narcissism, expert syndrome, and being insanely rich.* I hope the Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again and his takeover of Twitter kills that cesspool.*



Agree 100%

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## MiTasol (Nov 6, 2022)

Looks like twitter is losing customers thanks to Musk.

Lets hope this alternative thrives and the movers stay away (and that someone reliable picks up the Ukrainian Starlink contract).



https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/05/tech/mastodon/index.html

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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

The US government is perfectly happy to pay the Starlink fees if no other objectionable conditions are demanded by Musk. The total amount of the payments is minuscule in comparison to the amounts being spent in aid to Ukraine.

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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

I wonder if the President could order Musk to provide Starlink services (if Musk decided to shut it off) under the Defense Production Act?

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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

Hmmm . . . I was going to add some info to my last post but I keep getting a "OOPS . . . You do not have permission to change this content date." message box.


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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

But only for this thread.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hmmm . . . I was going to add some info to my last post but I keep getting a "OOPS . . . You do not have permission to change this content date." message box.



Clear the cache on your browser?


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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

Nope, that is not it. I have emptied my browser cache several times now and also restarted my computer. Still can not edit my posts on this thread.
I will try again later.


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## swampyankee (Nov 6, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Ol' Henry, like Lindbergh and many other industrialists admired naziism for its social efficiency and discipline.


Ford was also an antisemite and virulently enough for the German nazis to use his writings.

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 6, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> Ford was also an antisemite and virulently enough for the German nazis to use his writings.


Antisemitism was more prevalent and more socially acceptable in the US back then, without the wake up call of the holocaust on the public conscience. Hard to imagine in today's PC America.


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## fubar57 (Nov 6, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-power-blackouts-russian-drones-iran-1.6641922

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## GrauGeist (Nov 6, 2022)

This is just a thought, but could the Starlink blackouts be caused by Russian military satellites?

I'm not really up to speed on what all is up there, but it's something that came to mind last night.

And speaking of space stuff, China provided an interesting light show Friday evening as their Long March rocket broke up over the west coast during it's uncontrolled re-entry.

Dumbasses...

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 6, 2022)

Well, the chances of it hitting China was pretty low, so WTF?


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## GrauGeist (Nov 6, 2022)

This isn't the first time China has had a large booster conduct uncontrolled re-entry.

Every space program has safeguards in place to try and direct boosters and such away from populated areas in case of malfunction, end of life, etc.

Except China. Aparently they don't give a rat's ass...

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## Denniss (Nov 6, 2022)

Until they get it to fall back on their own land. But then a western nation will be claimed to have it shot down or directed towards china.

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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

The problem of not being able to edit my posts on this thread has gone away.

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## GTX (Nov 6, 2022)

I believe the Starlink issue was, although possibly triggered by Elon having his feelings hurt, more of a push to get the US Govt to pay more.

Firstly, he wrongly claimed it was all coming from his/SpaceX's pockets but the reality was quite different:









Fact Checking Claims That the U.S. Government Paid for Starlink Systems for Ukraine


The government has paid for some, but not all, of the terminals delivered.




thedispatch.com





Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab

Then the Pentagon called his bluff saying they could look to others to support it and thus award contracts accordingly...to which Elon then backed down but still tried to sound like the poor victim/hero:









Elon Musk Backs Down From Demands for Starlink Funding


Elon Musk said Space Exploration Technologies Corp. will continue to fund its Starlink broadband service in Ukraine in an apparent step back from seeking support from the US Defense Department.




www.bloomberg.com





Quite pathetic really!

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## GTX (Nov 6, 2022)

Russian General Alexander Lapin removed from command, months after Putin labelled him 'Hero of Russia'

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## Glider (Nov 6, 2022)

An interesting statement from the Sky News update given by Sean Bean. He quotes the Russian leader in the Donestk Region reporting that up to 60% of his losses were due to friendly fire.

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## GTX (Nov 6, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> An interesting statement from the Sky News update given by Sean Bean. He quotes the Russian leader in the Donestk Region reporting that up to 60% of his losses were due to friendly fire.



I'd read the same thing at ISW. They're either trying to deny credit to the Ukrainians, or massively incompetent in the field ... or the guy's lying through his teeth.


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The problem of not being able to edit my posts on this thread has gone away.


Welcome back.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 6, 2022)

_Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Russian-installed administration in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Sunday that a number of settlements, including Kherson city had lost water and power supplies after what it said was an act of "sabotage".

In a statement on Telegram, the Russian-installed Kherson administration said that electricity and water supplies were "temporarily absent" after what it said was a "terrorist attack" damaged three power lines in the region.


It said that the attack had been organised by Ukraine, though it provided no evidence. Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield accounts from either side.

Russian state-owned news agency TASS quoted Kherson's Moscow-appointed governor Vladimir Saldo as saying that the city's power supply was planned to be restored by the end of the day.









Russian-installed Kherson authorities say no electricity, water in city after 'sabotage'


The Russian-installed administration in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Sunday that a number of settlements, including Kherson city had lost water and power supplies after what it said was an act of "sabotage".




www.reuters.com




_
"Sabotage" ... yeah, that's the ticket.





[/I]

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 6, 2022)

He didn't blame "supply chain issues"?

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## GrauGeist (Nov 6, 2022)

Maybe the puppet dumbass in Kherson should pay attention to the news:
Russian munitions have been hitting area infrastructure.

So yeah, it is sabotage.

By his own people...

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## SaparotRob (Nov 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'd read the same thing at ISW. They're either trying to deny credit to the Ukrainians, or massively incompetent in the field ... or the guy's lying through his teeth.


I’m going with incompetence. 
1. Incompetence sank the Mockba, not the AFU. Probable culprit, smoking near the magazines during a storm. 
3. Saky Airbase, probable culprit, improperly disposed cigarette. 
C. Multiple friendly fire accounts. Probable culprit, incapable of maintaining artillery (replacing of gun barrels), incessant cigarette breaks near ammo dumps. 
I rest my case.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 6, 2022)

Or that lady and her little daughter have been REALLY busy!

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 6, 2022)

They _seemed _friendly. 🤔

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> An interesting statement from the Sky News update given by Sean Bean. He quotes the Russian leader in the Donestk Region reporting that up to 60% of his losses were due to friendly fire.


Were these officer casualties?

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## J_P_C (Nov 6, 2022)

GTX said:


> I believe the Starlink issue was, although possibly triggered by Elon having his feelings hurt, more of a push to get the US Govt to pay more.
> 
> Firstly, he wrongly claimed it was all coming from his/SpaceX's pockets but the reality was quite different:
> 
> ...


accordingly to publicly revealed information Polish budget covered 70% of Starlink terminals purchased for Ukraine as well majority of monthly fees - i'm very sorry that we have no alternative source - i don't think sponsoring person with substandard morality like Mr. Musk is smart thing to do

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## wlewisiii (Nov 6, 2022)



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## Glider (Nov 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m going with incompetence.
> 1. Incompetence sank the Mockba, not the AFU. Probable culprit, smoking near the magazines during a storm.
> 3. Saky Airbase, probable culprit, improperly disposed cigarette.
> C. Multiple friendly fire accounts. Probable culprit, incapable of maintaining artillery (replacing of gun barrels), incessant cigarette breaks near ammo dumps.
> I rest my case.


Can I add incompetent leadership

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## Glider (Nov 6, 2022)

To be fair not all Russians are incompetent.

Here is one Russian soldier who didn't panic and lived because of it.



Russian soldier catches and throws bomb dropped by Ukrainian drone

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 6, 2022)

Glider said:


> To be fair not all Russians are incompetent.
> 
> Here is one Russian soldier who didn't panic and lived because of it.
> 
> ...



The Astros have sent an offer for him to play center-field.

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## ThomasP (Nov 6, 2022)

Although it should be noted that he did not "catch" the bombs. Just picked them up after they failed to explode on impact (with his web gear?).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Although it should be noted that he did not "catch" the bombs. Just picked them up after they failed to explode on impact (with his web gear?).



Yabut he about got a short fly back to second-base PDQ.

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## Glider (Nov 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The Astros have sent an offer for him to play center-field.


Take it, take it

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## at6 (Nov 7, 2022)

The sad thing is that the little bastard is still here.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 7, 2022)

at6 said:


> The sad thing is that the little bastard is still here.


We don’t know who he is. Maybe he’s a moral chap caught up in conscription, hiding away from his unit, and just waiting to surrender to the first AFU he sees.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 7, 2022)

Curled up in the trench the way he was, looked more like hiding than anything.

If he was thinking about surrendering before, that close brush with death will certainly be a motivator.

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## Denniss (Nov 7, 2022)

Another bad example of mistaken neutrality: Germany has 12k Swiss-made rounds for the Gepard in storage and wanted to give them to the Ukrainians. But Switzerland had a word on this and said no.
In my opinion they should give them to NATO partner Romania (still operating some Gepards) and have them walk over the border by themselves by accident

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## GTX (Nov 7, 2022)

Ukraine says Russian troops loot and occupy Kherson homes as battle looms


With a battle looming in Kherson, where the city has been starved of power, Ukraine accuses Russian troops of looting and occupying people's houses.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 7, 2022)

Australian veteran to head up Ukraine war crimes mobile justice team


Glenn Kolomeitz has served in Afghanistan and East Timor and fought for veterans' rights in Australia. He is now working to solve war crimes in Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 7, 2022)

Russia's strategy in Ukraine features five elements. Here's how they'll shape the war in 2023


With winter closing in on Europe, Russia is seeking to hold as much territory as possible while preparing for next year's campaign, writes Mick Ryan. So what might be Russia's options for 2023, and what are the Russian vulnerabilities Ukraine might attack?




www.abc.net.au

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## Frog (Nov 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> US-trained Afghan commandos say Russia trying to recruit them to fight in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Afghan special forces soldiers who fought alongside American troops and then fled to Iran after the chaotic US withdrawal last year are being recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine, according to three former Afghan generals.
> ...


This would rather be good news for the Ukrainians to fight such opponents, considering they ways they dropped theirs weapons instead of fighting to protect theirs women, daughters, mothers or sisters and leaving the Talibans take power.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 7, 2022)

Battalion of Russian mobilised men wiped out in days, survivors claim


The soldiers were sent to the frontline in Luhansk and their officers ran away, according to an unverified Verstka news agency report




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## GrauGeist (Nov 7, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Battalion of Russian mobilised men wiped out in days, survivors claim
> 
> 
> The soldiers were sent to the frontline in Luhansk and their officers ran away, according to an unverified Verstka news agency report
> ...


If they ran away, my guess is that a 1Lt. said he had an idea and whipped out a map...

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## at6 (Nov 7, 2022)

I would hope that instead of entering Kherson, the Ukrainians would surround it and cut off all electricity and water to the city. Mean while they could concentrate of driving the Russians out of Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 7, 2022)

at6 said:


> I would hope that instead of entering Kherson, the Ukrainians would surround it and cut off all electricity and water to the city. Mean while they could concentrate of driving the Russians out of Ukraine.



How thorough have the Russians been "evacuating" the citizens? That has to be a concern with the Ukrainian high command. Starving out a bunch of their own citizens could backfire hard.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 8, 2022)

As mentioned before, allow all who wish to evacuate westward, safe passage before closing the siege.

Then cut off the city but do not enter, thus avoiding a Stalingrad V2.0

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## SaparotRob (Nov 8, 2022)

Been watching a bunch of YT so be warned. Kherson has been looted clean. No power, no water. The city appears to be mostly empty of civilians. I'm thinking the orcs are going for a cauldron with Mobiks as live bait. Leave them cut off on the wrong side of the river. No one to free and nothing of value in Kherson, not enough to lose hundreds of irreplaceable Ukrainian lives. Whoever is left after it's been really cold for a while will probably be keen to surrender. Strike where it will really hurt the orcs. I'd love to see the AFU pull off an "island hopping" attack and hit 'em from Zaporizhzhia and some kind of amphibious assault. Using A-10s.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 8, 2022)

at6 said:


> I would hope that instead of entering Kherson, the Ukrainians would surround it and cut off all electricity and water to the city. Mean while they could concentrate of driving the Russians out of Ukraine.


Agreed. The Russians have clearly invested a lot of manpower and resources in building up the urban defences of Kherson. So, now's the time for the AFU to ignore Kherson and instead focus on taking intact the Dnieper crossing at the Nova Kakhovka dam, and then race the 90 km for Armiansk.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 8, 2022)

_*Russian forces have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems and have suffered significant aviation losses and will likely struggle to maintain the current pace of the Russian military's coordinated campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. *Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valeryi Zaluzhnyi stated on November 3 that Ukrainian forces have destroyed 278 aircraft compared to the Soviet Union's loss of 119 aircraft during 10 years of war in Afghanistan.[20] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 7 that Russian forces are unlikely to replace these aviation losses in the next few months because they likely significantly outstrip Russian capacity to manufacture new airframes.[21] Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skitbitsky stated in a comment to the Economist on November 7 that Russian forces have used more than eighty percent of their modern missiles in the coordinated campaign to strike Ukrainian infrastructure and that Russian forces only have 120 Iskander missiles left.[22] ISW previously assessed that Russia has depleted its arsenal of high-precision weapon systems in its campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, which is intended to degrade Ukrainian popular will (but is highly unlikely to succeed).[23] Ukrainian sources reported on November 7 that Ukrainian officials and engineers could restore power supplies to normal levels in a few weeks if the pace of Russian strikes on critical infrastructure dramatically slowed.[24] Skitbitsky also reported that Russian officials have reached an agreement with Iranian officials to purchase Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missile systems.[25] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are increasingly reliant on Iranian-made weapon systems to support its coordinated strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.[26]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## buffnut453 (Nov 8, 2022)

Putin allies who criticise Russia's war machine


The top brass have been sharply criticised over the war by Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin.



www.bbc.com





The growing bromance between Kadyrov and Prigozhin is interesting, particularly since they reinforce each other's messages about Russian failures...and this despite Putin's ownership of "the message." Not sure how much influence the two have in reality but they're clearly being afforded a freedom that few others enjoy.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 8, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> As far as I know, all existing T-90 variants were planned to be modernized to T-90M from 2020 to 2025.


Good video tour of the T-90M here.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 8, 2022)

Wonder just how high that turret can be tossed.

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## GTX (Nov 8, 2022)

Tangentially related:









'We have interfered, are interfering and will interfere': Putin ally admits meddling with US elections


Kremlin-connected entrepreneur Yevgeny Prigozhin admits that he has interfered in US elections and will continue to do so, confirming for the first time the accusations he has rejected for years.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 8, 2022)

Map shows Ukraine has taken back a sizeable chunk of Russian-occupied territory as war rages on

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## GTX (Nov 8, 2022)

US 'increasingly concerned' over Russia's nuclear threats

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## WARSPITER (Nov 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good video tour of the T-90M here.



First batch was 20 upgrades which was around 2019. 

Currently standing at around 100 M series. Actual figures for Ukraine deployment is not known.

Estimated numbers for T-90 of all types range from 750 to 1000 vehicles. These are the types built for the Russian army.

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## GTX (Nov 8, 2022)

Zelenskyy criticises world leaders for focusing on climate change 'rhetoric' and 'marketing' instead of 'real action'


Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's war is impacting negatively on climate change at COP27, as Andrew Forrest calls for a halt to seabed mining.




www.abc.net.au

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 8, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelenskyy criticises world leaders for focusing on climate change 'rhetoric' and 'marketing' instead of 'real action'
> 
> 
> Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia's war is impacting negatively on climate change at COP27, as Andrew Forrest calls for a halt to seabed mining.
> ...


Perhaps we should stop sending anti-tank missiles. Every burning Russian tank is compounding the climate catastrophe.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 8, 2022)

What do we predict re. Crimea? My feeling is that retaking this territory will be the biggest diplomatic/political rather than military challenge for Ukraine. I can envision Ukraine having to give it up in exchange for a peace deal and otherwise total Russian withdraw from the rest of Ukraine's territory. I think when the war's over whomever is holding onto Crimea will get to keep it, so my hope is that the AFU can seize Crimea before the end of the year. Bypass Kherson for later if you must.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 8, 2022)

The war will end when Russia is gone from all of sovereign Ukrainian land, including Crimea.

Zelensky and Ukrain will not accept anything less.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 8, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The war will end when Russia is gone from all of sovereign Ukrainian land, including Crimea. Zelensky and Ukraine will not accept anything less.


That's definitely what I'd like to think.


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## GrauGeist (Nov 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's definitely what I'd like to think.


That is what has been clearly stated by Zelensky, his ministers and the people since day one.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 8, 2022)

_
KYIV, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Ukraine has received its first delivery of NASAMS air defence systems which will "significantly strengthen" its armed forces, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Monday.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said last month the United States was accelerating the shipment of the sophisticated NASAMS systems to Ukraine after a devastating missile barrage from Russia.

"Look who's here! NASAMS and Aspide air defence systems arrived in Ukraine!," Reznikov wrote on the Telegram messaging app, thanking Norway, Spain and the United States for the shipments.


"These weapons will significantly strengthen the #UAarmy and will make our skies safer."_









Ukraine receives first delivery of NASAMS air defence systems


Ukraine has received its first delivery of NASAMS air defence systems which will "significantly strengthen" its armed forces, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Monday.




www.reuters.com

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## wlewisiii (Nov 8, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 9, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>




Dude's got Purple Heart fever.

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Dude's got Purple Heart fever.


...and he's AWOL to boot! Call in the FSB.

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## Glider (Nov 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> That is what has been clearly stated by Zelensky, his ministers and the people since day one.


Tragically, the final say may not be Zelensky or his people. At the end of the day, they are heavily dependent on the USA for arms, ammunition and all sorts of other aid. If the USA say for instance let Russia keep Crimea, then there will be little they can do about it.

It's not right, it's not fair and it shouldn't happen, but it could easily happen.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 9, 2022)

Allowing Putler to keep Crimea would be a reward for his expensive (both in property and lives) eight year effort to seize Ukraine.

The vast majority of Western leaders have backed Ukraine with a zero appeasement stance, so to be honest, I don't see Russia keeping any territory within Ukraine's established borders.

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## Denniss (Nov 9, 2022)

Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city


Russia orders its military out of the Ukrainian city, the only regional capital captured in the war.



www.bbc.com





this is either good news or they'll allow the Ukrainians to move in and then destroy the dam

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## Glider (Nov 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Allowing Putler to keep Crimea would be a reward for his expensive (both in property and lives) eight year effort to seize Ukraine.
> 
> The vast majority of Western leaders have backed Ukraine with a zero appeasement stance, so to be honest, I don't see Russia keeping any territory within Ukraine's established borders.


I totally agree with you, but I wouldn't bet against something like this happening. At a guess, neither would you

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## wlewisiii (Nov 9, 2022)

Just saw this. No clue how accurate it is.

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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Perhaps we should stop sending anti-tank missiles. Every burning Russian tank is compounding the climate catastrophe.


Or Russia could just pull out entirely and thus save the need for any tanks to burn

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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)

Russia orders withdrawal of troops from west bank of Kherson's Dnipro River


Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu orders his troops to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River in the face of Ukrainian attacks near the southern city of Kherson.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)

A Russian convoy stole an amusement park train from Ukraine and drove it out of Kherson, Ukrainian advisor claims


A video posted by Anton Gerashchenko shows a kid's choo-choo train amid a convoy of vehicles, which Gerashchenko said was driven by Russians.




www.businessinsider.com

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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)

https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/strategic-analysis/spotlight-briefs/spotlight-brief-3/22

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 9, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 9, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Nov 9, 2022)

GTX said:


> A Russian convoy stole an amusement park train from Ukraine and drove it out of Kherson, Ukrainian advisor claims
> 
> 
> A video posted by Anton Gerashchenko shows a kid's choo-choo train amid a convoy of vehicles, which Gerashchenko said was driven by Russians.
> ...


Have they No Shame?

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## SaparotRob (Nov 9, 2022)

In defense of the orcs stealing the kiddie train, they were probably REALLY drunk.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 9, 2022)

What better vehicle for a bunch of clowns to ride in.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 9, 2022)

Ukraine reveals Russian weapons destroyed among staggering infantry losses


A high-ranking unit in Russia's navy reportedly lost roughly 300 men in a recent offensive in Ukraine, though Russia has denied the unit suffered heavy losses.




www.newsweek.com





What an awesome quote:

Ukraine's Defense Ministry shared a quote from abolitionist and journalist William Lloyd Garrison that read: 

"With reasonable men, I will reason; with humane men I will plead; but to tyrants I will give no quarter, nor waste arguments..."

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## buffnut453 (Nov 9, 2022)

Aaaaand....another prominent Russian official kicks the bucket:









Kirill Stremousov: Senior Russian Kherson official dies in car crash, officials say


Kirill Stremousov was appointed two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Nov 9, 2022)

It also seems like the Russian withdrawal from Kherson has begun in earnest:









Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city


Russia orders its military out of the Ukrainian city, the only regional capital captured in the war.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Aaaaand....another prominent Russian official kicks the bucket:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He was heading south when killed. He received the Order of Courage for bravely running away.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 9, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> It also seems like the Russian withdrawal from Kherson has begun in earnest:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To quote Admiral Ackbar…. it’s a trap?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 9, 2022)

The Russians conducted a fairly successful rearguard action, I think. The had no real option otherwise, given the threat the Ukrainians posed to Sevastopol and its big naval base. This was probably the best of a bad suite of options available to them.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 9, 2022)

Any news on the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov? She’s been moved away from Sevastopol but I‘ve not seen any reports on her condition.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 9, 2022)

The only thing I've seen about it was it was docked sideways to a pier (everybody else was docked by the stern) after the attack. The Theory was it was done to hide the damage. That's all. IMHO if there really was no damage they would have been showing it off as being undamaged.

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## ThomasP (Nov 10, 2022)

"Zelenskyy says Russia wired a hydroelectric dam to explode and flood 80 towns in region it may have to abandon"

If that dam is destroyed, this is what flooding is projected to be:

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## Mike Williams (Nov 10, 2022)

Worth a read - Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook, CRS: 



https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150

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## GTX (Nov 10, 2022)

Damn - would have made for an interesting opportunity for him to be confronted:









Vladimir Putin to skip G20 summit in Indonesia, sends foreign minister instead


The Russian president has told Indonesia he won't be attending the G20 summit in Bali, which would have seen him come face to face with world leaders, including US President Joe Biden.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 10, 2022)

UK sending 1,000 more surface to air missiles to Ukraine


The United Kingdom will be sending some 1,000 additional surface to air missiles to Ukraine to help counter the Russian threat to Ukrainian infrastructure. The country's defense secretary Ben Wallace announced that the delivery of additional missiles would be completed "soon." The defense mini




defbrief.com

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## GTX (Nov 10, 2022)



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## buffnut453 (Nov 10, 2022)

Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken Snihurivka which sits on a main supply route east of Mykolaiv. 









Ukraine war: Kyiv claims major gains as Russia exits Kherson


Kyiv reports rapid advances of seven kilometres after Moscow said it would leave the key city.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 10, 2022)

I am encouraged by Ukraine's military commanders viewing the evacuation of Kherson as a trap/ruse.

And I still suspect that Ukraine will strike in force elsewhere, especially now, since Russia has made a big deal about leaving Kherson.

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## GTX (Nov 10, 2022)

Let's see if Putin's fellow travellers stab Ukraine in the back:









No more 'blank cheque': What will happen if the US stops supplying weapons to Ukraine?


The US has sent billions in crucial weaponry to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks. But with Republicans poised to take control of Congress, there may be significant implications for the war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 10, 2022)

Fleeing Russians could still turn Kherson to a 'city of death', Ukrainians warn


Ukrainian troops make gains in the Kherson region after Moscow ordered one of the war's biggest retreats, though Kyiv warns that fleeing Russians could still turn Kherson into a "city of death".




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Nov 10, 2022)

If there was ever an example of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, this has to be it



Putin orders to raise security standards in the Armed Forces to match ‘real needs’

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## GrauGeist (Nov 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> If there was ever an example of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, this has to be it
> 
> 
> 
> Putin orders to raise security standards in the Armed Forces to match ‘real needs’


I laughed at the "terrorist alert" bit - so are they at the border looking for bad people, or is "terrorist alert" a Russian catch-word for "mobilizing"?


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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 10, 2022)

There are numerous reports claiming that there are still about 20.000 Russians in the right bank crowded and waiting for crossing. Apparently Ukraine artillery got in range and the crossings are constantly being targeted. If all is true this night might be a slaughter.

I was surprised that Russians manged to pull an organized retreat, apparently they didn't and they are crossing Dnipro in panic, and we already know how good are Russians at river crossings.

Waiting eagerly for tomorrow news.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 10, 2022)

Russian version of freedom of speech

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 10, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> There are numerous reports claiming that there are still about 20.000 Russians in the right bank crowded and waiting for crossing. Apparently Ukraine artillery got in range and the crossings are constantly being targeted. If all is true this night might be a slaughter.


Yeppers, here‘s the biggest AFU barrage of the war.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 10, 2022)

Now reload and do it again.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 10, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Now reload and do it again.


I think they’ll first pack up and roll a few km down the front, so to avoid any counter battery fire.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yeppers, here‘s the biggest AFU barrage of the war.



Other sources claim the same.
The interesting part however is "catastrophic losses by the river"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Yeppers, here‘s the biggest AFU barrage of the war.




Jesus, please us.

The reports I'd read implied that more Russians had already crossed to the east bank. 20,000 troops on the west bank, with Ukrainians on 3/4 of their perimeter, spells a bunch of ugly for the Russians. Looking at that video, a Falaise Gap scenario doesn't seem unrealistic, delivered by arty rather than airpower.

Hopefully the Ukrainians can slice down the east bank quick enough to pin the targets in place.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 10, 2022)

Don't underestimate the Russians. It's all going to plan.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Don't underestimate the Russians. It's all going to plan.



"I meant to do that."

How many times will we hear that?

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## GrauGeist (Nov 11, 2022)

Just heard on the radio that there is a major push by Ukraine forces just west of Luhansk within the past 12 hours.

Something to keep an eye on.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian version of freedom of speech



True translation?

If true, the damn thing looks like matter for Archipiélago GULAG 2.0


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 11, 2022)

Finally, looks like the time has come.

T-34 repourposed for action.



True? IDK, I just know that Rusia is like that kind of people that you don't belive anything they say and they manage to lie to you.

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## Denniss (Nov 11, 2022)

Getting the western part of Kherson under control may free lots of mobile Ukrainian forces for a possible eastern pincer towards or around Zaporoshya

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Finally, looks like the time has come.
> 
> T-34 repourposed for action.
> 
> ...



Kudos to the T-34’s engine designers that a museum piece clearly left outside to rot can still run.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 11, 2022)

News this morning is that the Russian evacuation of Kherson is complete. There are photos showing Ukrainian flags flying in the city centre.

An early Christmas present for all Ukrainians.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 11, 2022)

Some more footage of the barrage and Russians fleeing. Posted one hour ago to YouTube.



And check out the latest map! All of Kherson north bay of the river is free.









Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...




liveuamap.com





Job #1 needs to be to secure the dam and remove any explosive charges left by the Russians.

How the heck will Putin explain this away to the Russian people? He just annexed the place.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> True translation?
> 
> If true, the damn thing looks like matter for Archipiélago GULAG 2.0


I think so, today I've seen the same vid in the Spanish TV news. I expect them to check those details.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Spanish TV news. I expect them to check those details.


Kind of optimistic.


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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 11, 2022)

Now that Kherson has been liberated this guys are gonna have a hard time counting destroyed and captured equipment.








Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine







www.oryxspioenkop.com




No sleep for at least a month.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 11, 2022)

Unfortunately that was expected

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## buffnut453 (Nov 11, 2022)

Ukrainian civilians and soldiers celebrate in Kherson’s main square:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63576212?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=636e66b952314367adffd03a%26Watch%3A%20Ukrainians%20celebrate%20with%20soldiers%20in%20Kherson%27s%20Freedom%20Square%262022-11-11T15%3A36%3A11.781Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de674d3c-f798-4805-9cd1-471e5540b565&pinned_post_asset_id=636e66b952314367adffd03a&pinned_post_type=share

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## Dimlee (Nov 11, 2022)

Celebrating is cool. And then back to business...





The Naval Fleet of Drones


A fundraiser that will become a game-changer. Join the formation of the world’s first Naval Fleet of Drones!




u24.gov.ua

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> How the heck will Putin explain this away to the Russian people? He just annexed the place.



"Reorganizing for future offensives" is my bet.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 11, 2022)

Is a frontal assault the only means for Ukraine to take Crimea? With much of the Russian army dug in on the south bank of the Dnieper it seems that Crimea itself may be underdefended. How about a Ukrainian parachute or amphibious raid combined with destruction of the Kerch bridge and the bridges linking Kherson to Crimea? Of course the lads need to be resupplied once they land in Crimea, likely by sea from Odessa.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is a frontal assault the only means for Ukraine to take Crimea? With much of the Russian army dug in on the south bank of the Dnieper it seems that Crimea itself may be underdefended. How about a Ukrainian parachute or amphibious raid combined with destruction of the Kerch bridge and the bridges linking Kherson to Crimea? Of course the lads need to be resupplied once they land in Crimea, likely by sea from Odessa.



Does Ukraine have the naval forces able to project power in this manner? I'm skeptical of that myself. Airdrops/airborne envelopment would also face difficulties from Russian SAMs and/or fighter interception, though small, low-level insertions are something they're no doubt capable of executing, given what their chopper pilots showed in the defense of Mariupol.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukrainian civilians and soldiers celebrate in Kherson’s main square:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63576212?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=636e66b952314367adffd03a%26Watch%3A%20Ukrainians%20celebrate%20with%20soldiers%20in%20Kherson%27s%20Freedom%20Square%262022-11-11T15%3A36%3A11.781Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de674d3c-f798-4805-9cd1-471e5540b565&pinned_post_asset_id=636e66b952314367adffd03a&pinned_post_type=share


Long and happy night today in Kherson

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## wlewisiii (Nov 11, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russian version of freedom of speech



I asked a native Russian speaker who I know at a different web site and his reply was 

"The gist is correct. Of course he's not realizing it, he always knew."

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Does Ukraine have the naval forces able to project power in this manner? I'm skeptical of that myself.


Me too. But I often feel I underestimate the Ukrainians. When there is a front assault on Crimea I would not be surprised if there is an assault into the Russian rear, maybe using Ukraine's Air Assault troops Ukrainian Air Assault Forces - Wikipedia and RO/RO ships? UkrFerry - Wikipedia









Black Sea ro-ro operations adapt to the new normal as companies seek opportunities - The Loadstar


War in Ukraine has forced the re-routing of cargo out of the country, creating rapidly changing freight paths and new facilities.




theloadstar.com





_"UkrFerry owns three ro-ro ferries, designed to transport rolling stock and trucks, which allowed UkrFerry to gain momentum for the sustainable development of the Euro-Asian block train projects known as The Middle Corridor or the trans-Caspian Route, where Chornomorsk, Ukraine, – Batumi/Poti, Georgia and the rail ferry line was operating."_









Ship GREIFSWALD (Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship) Registered in Panama - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311912, MMSI 370492000, Call Sign 3FEC8


Vessel GREIFSWALD is a Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship, Registered in Panama. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of GREIFSWALD including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311912...



www.marinetraffic.com












Ship KAUNAS (Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship) Registered in Panama - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311924, MMSI 353468000, Call Sign 3FAY6


Vessel KAUNAS is a Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship, Registered in Panama. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of KAUNAS including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311924, MMSI...



www.marinetraffic.com

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## wlewisiii (Nov 11, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Airdrops/airborne envelopment would also face difficulties from Russian SAMs and/or fighter interception


RuAF is bringing MiG-31 fighters near enough to be a menace with their LR AAM for ukrainian aircraft.









Russia’s MiG-31 Foxhounds Proving To Be A Threat To Ukrainian Aircraft


The unique MiG-31BM with its very long-range air-to-air missiles is a serious menace to Ukrainian aircraft.




www.thedrive.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

From ISW:

_*Key Takeaways*_


_Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River._
_The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City._
_ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions._
_Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces._
_Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city._
_Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure._
_Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line._
_Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk._
_Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine._
_Russian citizens continue to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military._
_Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group._
_Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





The full assessment is worth the read.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Me too. But I often feel I underestimate the Ukrainians. When there is a front assault on Crimea I would not be surprised if there is an assault into the Russian rear, maybe using Ukraine's Air Assault troops Ukrainian Air Assault Forces - Wikipedia and RO/RO ships? UkrFerry - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It could be possible, but the threat from remaining Russian BSF units would be pretty high, I'd think, and that would have to be considered in any Ukrainian cost-benefit analysis.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> RuAF is bringing MiG-31 fighters near enough to be a menace with their LR AAM for ukrainian aircraft.









I wonder if their pilots have more than a 100 flight hours this year so far. Then there's a question on maintenance.









Crash of Russian MiG-31 fighter jet at Belbek airport caught on video - Technology Org


A fighter jet MiG-31 from the Russian Air Forces crashed after an unsuccessful take-off attempt at Belbek airport in Crimea.




www.technology.org

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Russia says it has completed its withdrawal from Kherson


The defence ministry says it has completed its retreat from the key city in southern Ukraine, and all Russian troops and equipment have been transferred to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Russia's war in Ukraine leaves behind worsening environmental damage


Pollution and toxins released during the eight-month-old war have caused environmental devastation, leaving more than six million people without clean water and thousands of hectares of forest burnt.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Russian wives defy military and threaten to storm border looking for husbands on the battlefield

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Little dated but still good to see:

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)



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## vikingBerserker (Nov 11, 2022)

That's just beautiful

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> That's just beautiful



Lord have mercy ... because those tanks won't.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 11, 2022)

GTX said:


>




That road is very narrow. Any lack of driver precision and those MBTs would be stuck. Given the number of submerged Russian tanks we’ve seen, I wonder if this video demonstrates a generally higher level of proficiency among Ukrainian tank crews compared to their Russian counterparts?

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## at6 (Nov 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukrainian civilians and soldiers celebrate in Kherson’s main square:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-63576212?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=636e66b952314367adffd03a%26Watch%3A%20Ukrainians%20celebrate%20with%20soldiers%20in%20Kherson%27s%20Freedom%20Square%262022-11-11T15%3A36%3A11.781Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de674d3c-f798-4805-9cd1-471e5540b565&pinned_post_asset_id=636e66b952314367adffd03a&pinned_post_type=share


First, kill Russians and celebrate later.

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## at6 (Nov 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian wives defy military and threaten to storm border looking for husbands on the battlefield


I've heard of desperation but, husband hunting on a battle field?

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 11, 2022)

Man, Ukrainians to the front and angry wives in the rear.

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## Denniss (Nov 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Man, Ukrainians to the front and angry wives in the rear.


a very dangerous sandwich

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## buffnut453 (Nov 11, 2022)

at6 said:


> I've heard of desperation but, husband hunting on a battle field?



Reminds me of Lena Hyena:

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## Glider (Nov 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Finally, looks like the time has come.
> 
> T-34 repourposed for action.
> 
> ...



I find it mildly amusing that they can get an 85 yr old T34 running but have hundreds of T72's in reserve that haven't moved an inch

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Man, Ukrainians to the front and angry wives in the rear.



Those wives might make an NKVD security division look like a bunch of pussycats.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

Glider said:


> I find it mildly amusing that they can get an 85 yr old T34 running but have hundreds of T72's in reserve that haven't moved an inch



It's only a matter of time before The Plane Which Shall Not Be Mentioned shows up ... complete with nose-armor.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That road is very narrow. Any lack of driver precision and those MBTs would be stuck. Given the number of submerged Russian tanks we’ve seen, I wonder if this video demonstrates a generally higher level of proficiency among Ukrainian tank crews compared to their Russian counterparts?



I noticed that, the drivers are being very careful with their track-spinning.

It would also be a great place for an ambush if the Russians had the capability.

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Failure in Ukraine could be Putin's downfall, former US Army commander says


Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges says Vladimir Putin's flailing invasion has revealed three things that could lead to the collapse of Russia as we know it.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 11, 2022)

Russia has abandoned its hold on the key Ukrainian city of Kherson. Here's why it matters


The months-long Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that had been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion, leads to the retreat of Moscow's forces. Here's a look at what has been happening and why both sides want control of the city.




www.abc.net.au

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> That road is very narrow. Any lack of driver precision and those MBTs would be stuck. Given the number of submerged Russian tanks we’ve seen, I wonder if this video demonstrates a generally higher level of proficiency among Ukrainian tank crews compared to their Russian counterparts?


Betcha they grew up driving tractors in muddy fields, something the average Russian city kid conscript hasn't done.

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## fubar57 (Nov 12, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Haven't they learned anything from the Russians.....keep your armour bunched up while moving, easier for fuelling up, meal service, mail call, _last rites_

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 12, 2022)

So what does Ukraine and the AFU do now? The Russian expectation is that both sides will now sit tight whilst the wet and cold of autumn and winter set in, with each side settling for artillery exchanges while they reinforce, resupply and regroup, until restarting offensive ops in spring 2023. But does this play more to Russia’s advantage? By spring 2023 the southern bank of the Dnieper will be heavily defended.

A possible autumn/winter move for the AFU is to repeat the Sept 2022 feint, where the Russians were led to believe that the Ukrainians were focused on a Kherson offensive, leading Moscow to deploy much of their forces to the Kherson region. As we saw, this thus allowed the Ukrainians to successfully launch their intended offensive in the Kharkiv region. But to repeat this now in autumn/winter will require the AFU to rely on modern roads. 

So, what does Ukraine do now?


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## wlewisiii (Nov 12, 2022)

As an aside, two very interesting Youtubers talk about getting the wrong lessons from this conflict:

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## J_P_C (Nov 12, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So what does Ukraine and the AFU do now? The Russian expectation is that both sides will now sit tight whilst the wet and cold of autumn and winter set in, with each side settling for artillery exchanges while they reinforce, resupply and regroup, until restarting offensive ops in spring 2023. But does this play more to Russia’s advantage? By spring 2023 the southern bank of the Dnieper will be heavily defended.
> 
> A possible autumn/winter move for the AFU is to repeat the Sept 2022 feint, where the Russians were led to believe that the Ukrainians were focused on a Kherson offensive, leading Moscow to deploy much of their forces to the Kherson region. As we saw, this thus allowed the Ukrainians to successfully launch their intended offensive in the Kharkiv region. But to repeat this now in autumn/winter will require the AFU to rely on modern roads.
> 
> So, what does Ukraine do now?



Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.

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## J_P_C (Nov 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.


considering weather forecast it may be just 3 weeks from now....

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## GrauGeist (Nov 12, 2022)

The Ukraine MoD has stated that Ukrainian forces will continue to keep pressure on Russian forces and their offensive will not stop because of the onset of winter.

There is talk of an offensive to take Melitopol, which would drive a solid wedge between Russian held territories.

As I mentioned earlier, I would be looking to Meriopol as an objective, since there is less territory to push through and would provide a solid anchor on the coast to divide the Russian forces in two.

Melitopol would be close to having the same effect and either scenario will put Russian forces to the north and south in jeopardy of encirclement.









Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull


Many analysts and diplomats have suggested there could be a pause in major combat, and even peace talks, over the winter, but after pushing the Russians out of Kherson, Ukraine has no desire to stop.




www.nytimes.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So what does Ukraine and the AFU do now? The Russian expectation is that both sides will now sit tight whilst the wet and cold of autumn and winter set in, with each side settling for artillery exchanges while they reinforce, resupply and regroup, until restarting offensive ops in spring 2023. But does this play more to Russia’s advantage? By spring 2023 the southern bank of the Dnieper will be heavily defended.
> 
> A possible autumn/winter move for the AFU is to repeat the Sept 2022 feint, where the Russians were led to believe that the Ukrainians were focused on a Kherson offensive, leading Moscow to deploy much of their forces to the Kherson region. As we saw, this thus allowed the Ukrainians to successfully launch their intended offensive in the Kharkiv region. But to repeat this now in autumn/winter will require the AFU to rely on modern roads.
> 
> So, what does Ukraine do now?


Whatever the AFU does, it will come from an unexpected axis, catch the Russians off-guard and impress the crap out of us again.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Ukraine MoD has stated that Ukrainian forces will continue to keep pressure on Russian forces and their offensive will not stop because of the onset of winter.
> 
> There is talk of an offensive to take Melitopol, which would drive a solid wedge between Russian held territories.
> 
> ...



The main reason I'd favor Melitopol is that it would present three different options for follow-up, leaving the Russians to guess where the next shoe is gonna drop. It'd also bring the Kerch Strait inside ATACMS range.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 12, 2022)

I think Ukraine will take Belgorod and offer to swap it for Crimea and a utility infielder to be named later.

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## GTX (Nov 12, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 12, 2022)

Lol, status unchanged. Come here and take it if you dare.








Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat


The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.




www.reuters.com

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## wlewisiii (Nov 12, 2022)

Well, of course its status is unchanged now. 

Just as it was unchanged by the fake referendum and illegitimate annexation.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 12, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 12, 2022)

Ukraine has battle-hardened commanders in place on all fronts - defense official


Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar says Ukraine has powerful and battle-hardened commanders on all fronts. — Ukrinform.




www.ukrinform.net

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## GTX (Nov 12, 2022)

A few days old but still of interest:

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## buffnut453 (Nov 12, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Once the ground freezes, off-road ops will be easier. I think the Russian expectations of a quiet period may be wishful thinking.



Agree entirely. If Ukraine has the ability to generate the required force levels and manoeuvre them to attack in an unexpected place, then they’d be foolish to take their foot off the gas and give Russian forces time to recover and re-equip. Keep the offensive rolling to keep Russia on the back foot.

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## GTX (Nov 12, 2022)

By skipping G20, Putin cements his loner status. But he may be too scared to leave the Kremlin


From Tony Abbott's "shirtfront" vow to wild press conferences with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin always brings drama to global summits. But this year, the risks are too great for him to leave the Kremlin unattended.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Nov 12, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Lol, status unchanged. Come here and take it if you dare.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Russia must have THE best Kool-Aid in the world.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 12, 2022)

Oops. Accidentally hit reply while reading your post.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 12, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Agree entirely. If Ukraine has the ability to generate the required force levels and manoeuvre them to attack in an unexpected place, then they’d be foolish to take their foot off the gas and give Russian forces time to recover and re-equip. Keep the offensive rolling to keep Russia on the back foot.


Agreed. And NATO will ensure the Ukrainians have the necessary winter clothing and kit to maintain combat ops. This is where Canada can really help, as we likely have thousands of army-spec winter clothing in stores.

Here’s some CAF soldiers, looking like they’re on Hoth.















Minister Anand announces new Canadian military aid to Ukraine at Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting - Canada.ca


At today’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels, Belgium, Defence Minister Anita Anand announced that Canada will provide over $47 million in new military aid to assist Ukraine as it fights for its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.




www.canada.ca





400,000 pieces of winter clothing for a total of $15 million. This critical winter equipment includes jackets, pants, boots, gloves, and parkas sourced from Canadian companies through the Canadian Commercial Corporation. An additional 100,000 pieces will come from CAF inventory.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 12, 2022)

The BBC is reporting a huge explosion at one end of the Kakhovka Dam. The video footage shows a substantial blast. I'm wondering if it was a booby-trap left by the Russians in an attempt to blow up the dam?









Ukraine war: Celebration in Kherson - but war 'far from over'


Jubilant scenes are continuing after Ukraine took back the city of Kherson from Russia.



www.bbc.com





Good to see the whole area on the west bank of the Dnipr coloured purple on the maps.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 12, 2022)

Intellegence sources revealed that the Russians had placed mines around the dam back in late September/early October - aside from the danger of flooding to towns downriver, the Nuclear plant and hydro-elecric systems would be affected.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 12, 2022)

The Ukrainians continue to cut the head off the snake.









Putin reeling as Ukraine smashes Russian 'headquarters' killing 80


Ukrainian forces have bombarded a series of key targets, devastating Russian forces while they press the attack.




www.express.co.uk

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## at6 (Nov 13, 2022)

J_P_C said:


>



Good Russian. Ivan want a dog biscuit?

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 13, 2022)

I wonder if we’ll see the Ukrainians capture some of these.









Russia Develops Machine Gun-Enabled Snowmobile Hybrid | SnowGoer


the TTM-1901 snowmobile - also known as the “Berkut” or Golden Eagle - will support Russian forces in arctic terrain through, "servicing and visual inspection of main pipelines, power transmission lines and communication links. It will also be used for guarding facilities and hunting.”




snowgoer.com

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## GTX (Nov 13, 2022)

'Betrayal': Russians turn against Putin after humiliating Kherson retreat

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## GTX (Nov 13, 2022)

Russia and Ukraine are firing 24,000 or more artillery rounds a day


Russia has lost a lot of equipment, including helicopters, and some of its fresh troops are arriving at the front lines without weapons, say officials.




www.nbcnews.com

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## Glider (Nov 13, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder if we’ll see the Ukrainians capture some of these.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


On current form its more likely how many, not if

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## GTX (Nov 13, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 13, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 13, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 13, 2022)

Next offensive or next bait?

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## MiTasol (Nov 13, 2022)

Glider said:


> On current form its more likely how many, not if



More likely they already have their own but were keeping it quiet so that the orcs were not forewarned

*EDIT*
That news flash is dated 2018 so you can safely say that the Ukrainians have there own version powered by something more reliable than a Lada engine

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 13, 2022)

From this article


GTX said:


> 'Betrayal': Russians turn against Putin after humiliating Kherson retreat



Came this quote:

"_A former senior defence official who spoke anonymously to The Guardian slammed Putin’s decision to distance himself from the retreat.

“Putin doesn’t want to deliver the bad news and take responsibility for this retreat,” they told the publication.

“He does not want to be associated with failure. This has been his modus operandi for years.”_ "

Could this behaviour led to a coup? It can't be easy to be the one taking responsibility of the bad news when in must rest on the shoulders of the one that made the decision to go to war.

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## MiTasol (Nov 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Could this behaviour led to a coup? It can't be easy to be the one taking responsibility of the bad news when in must rest on the shoulders of the one that made the decision to go to war.



Do you mean - Is he avoiding the G7 meeting because he is afraid of a coup while he is gone *or* his plane being shot down by "friendly fire" *or *the pilot deliberately crashing to save Mother Russia from him.

Maybe

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## wlewisiii (Nov 13, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Do you mean - Is he avoiding the G7 meeting because he is afraid of a coup while he is gone *or* his plane being shot down by "friendly fire" *or *the pilot deliberately crashing to save Mother Russia from him.
> 
> Maybe


Not to mention someone renditioning him the Hauge for war crimes trial.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 13, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Do you mean - Is he avoiding the G7 meeting because he is afraid of a coup while he is gone *or* his plane being shot down by "friendly fire" *or *the pilot deliberately crashing to save Mother Russia from him.
> 
> Maybe


I hadn't considered the avoidance of the meeting due to fear of a coup but could be one reason indeed. Won't be the first time it happens.

If friendly fire o pilot deliberate crashing means "plane malfunction" or "Nato attack", could be also.


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## SaparotRob (Nov 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I hadn't considered the avoidance of the meeting due to fear of a coup but could be one reason indeed. Won't be the first time it happens.
> 
> If friendly fire o pilot deliberate crashing means "plane malfunction" or "Nato attack", could be also.


Gremlins.

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## tomo pauk (Nov 13, 2022)

Seems like the Russians have finally integrated the R-37 long range AAM on a member of the Su-27 family:

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 13, 2022)

GTX said:


>



With so many mass graves I’d not be eating any mushrooms.









Why are mushrooms growing on top of your grandmother's grave? - Answers


Because graveyard soil tends to be rich in organic matter, there is a chance that mushrooms may grow around the graves.Specifically, the soil-dwelling critters of the soil food web die and decay. Their body parts break down and in so doing enrich the soil with nutrients such as nitrogen. The...




www.answers.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> From this article
> 
> 
> Came this quote:
> ...



Once you throw enough people under the bus, you find that people don't want to be near you.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I hadn't considered the avoidance of the meeting due to fear of a coup but could be one reason indeed. Won't be the first time it happens.



It's been mentioned in a couple of articles I've read about his non-attendance. I cannot say how well-informed the reportage is, but I'd imagine it could be a concern of Vlad's.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 13, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Gremlins.



My fave TZ!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 13, 2022)

Russia reveals execution of convict using sledgehammer as he had surrendered to Armed Forces of Ukraine


Russian Telegram channels posted a video of the execution of Evgeniy Nuzhin, a former prisoner of the Ryazan Penal Colony-3 and a member of the Wagner Private Military Company, who surrendered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after being sent to the war against Ukraine; the man's head was smashed...




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Russia reveals execution of convict using sledgehammer as he had surrendered to Armed Forces of Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russian Telegram channels posted a video of the execution of Evgeniy Nuzhin, a former prisoner of the Ryazan Penal Colony-3 and a member of the Wagner Private Military Company, who surrendered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after being sent to the war against Ukraine; the man's head was smashed...
> ...


Just wow...


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## gumbyk (Nov 13, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Just wow...


Executing those who have managed to either evade capture and return, or otherwise return from capture is straight out of Stalin's playbook...

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 13, 2022)

He's too busy hiding in the Der Fuehrer's Bunker

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 13, 2022)

I'm reading this right? The guy was a Russian who defected to AFU, switched sides, and was captured by the Russians while fighting for Ukraine? Or that he was captured in Kyiv by Ukrainians and they killed him?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 13, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm reading this right? The guy was a Russian who defected to AFU, switched sides, and was captured by the Russians while fighting for Ukraine? Or that he was captured in Kyiv by Ukrainians and they killed him?



I understand that he was captured by Russian forces. Possibly Wagners.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 13, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I understand that he was captured by Russian forces. Possibly Wagners.



The article is so poorly written that "who-whom" is not clear.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

The Wagner Group murdered him and the guy literally admitted to war crimes in the article.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

Further confirmation that Zelensky is a true war leader. Kherson fell on Friday and he's visiting the city today. That's leadership, IMHO:









Kherson: President Zelensky visits liberated city


The regional capital was liberated on Friday after being taken by Russia in March.



www.bbc.com





Particularly like his response to the question "Where will Ukraine attack next?" He said "Not Moscow... We're not interested in the territories of another country." 

I'm looking forward in hopes we see a "drive to the sea" by Ukrainian forces to entirely cut off the remaining Russian troops in Kherson Oblast and Crimea. That said, I welcome any offensive action that pushes Russian forces back towards the pre-invasion borders.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 14, 2022)

Ukraine: Putin claims he ‘shares pain’ of troops’ mothers - live


Russia Ukraine latest news




www.independent.co.uk





Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov 'taken to hospital for heart condition at G20 summit'Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been taken to the hospital due to a heart condition following his arrival for the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesian authorities said.
Three Indonesian government and medical officials said the Russian diplomat was being treated on the resort island.
Two said Mr Lavrov was being seen for a heart condition.

The foreign minister is due to represent the Kremlin at the summit
*Thomas Kingsley* reports:

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

Not sure this provides any better explanation for the Wagner execution reported earlier...but here it is FWIW:









Ukraine war: Wagner chief Prigozhin defends brutal killing video


Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin says a defector to Ukraine died "a dog's death for a dog".



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Ukraine: Putin claims he ‘shares pain’ of troops’ mothers - live
> 
> 
> Russia Ukraine latest news
> ...



Putin and his cronies insist that this is Russia...a fast, sleek, powerful, manoeuverable, well-oiled, high-performance machine:








This is how the rest of the world sees Russia:







Lavrov's heart problem is the latest wheel to fall off the Russian jalopy.

Frankly, I'm surprised doctors could even find Lavrov's heart.

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## Denniss (Nov 14, 2022)

The Orcs seem to be pissed that the Ukrainian president dared to take foot on "russian" soil.
Or they are just pissed that their leader is like Hitler - living in his bunker in a world of dreams, playing with paper divisions. And having his SS hordes (Wagner) mass-murder civilians

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

When it comes to protecting Crimea, we have a territory that Putin cannot let fall without great personal risk to himself. What are the odds that once the AFU are at the border with Crimea, Putin makes an nuclear ultimatum, declaring that following the example of the USA in 1945 (a reference Putin often makes), Russia will launch a nuclear strike against Kyiv if the AFU crosses into Crimea?

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov 'taken to hospital for heart condition at G20 summit'Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been taken to the hospital due to a heart condition following his arrival for the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesian authorities said.
> Three Indonesian government and medical officials said the Russian diplomat was being treated on the resort island.
> Two said Mr Lavrov was being seen for a heart condition.
> 
> ...


A bit of polonium tea before Lavrov go overseas as a preventive measure? Just in the case he was planning a defection?

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

It seems like Lavrov isn’t in hospital. He had a check-up but was given a clean bill of health:









Russia's Lavrov dismisses report that he was taken to hospital at G20


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday dismissed an news agency report that he had been taken to hospital with a heart condition, scolding Western journalists for what he cast as false reporting.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A bit of polonium tea before Lavrov go overseas as a preventive measure? Just in the case he was planning a defection?


No, Lavrov is a convenient blame-sink for Putin for when all goes to hell. He's much more useful alive.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Not sure this provides any better explanation for the Wagner execution reported earlier...but here it is FWIW:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It does, thanks.


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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

If Putin's nuke threats were a drinking game, where we all had to drink a shot every time he issued a nuclear threat, we'd all be on the floor doing Irish yoga by now, absolutely hammered...

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If Putin's nuke threats were a drinking game, where we all had to drink a shot every time he issued a nuclear threat, we'd all be on the floor doing Irish yoga by now, absolutely hammered...


Agreed. But what other card can Putin plan when before Christmas 2022 the Kerch bridge is again hit and this time destroyed and the AFU have taken both Novooleksiivka and Kalanchak (shown below in 2014 map), putting Ukraine's forces on the border with a now undersupplied and underdefended Crimea?







When the AFU move into Crimea, Putin's entire reputation with the Russian people and more importantly its elite and powerful insiders will be mud. I thus expect Putin to make a direct threat: _"the moment any AFU move into Crimea, which is Russian home territory, will will launch a nuclear strike on Kiev"_. Then Putin will display video footage of the ICBM silos or SSBNs preparing to launch.


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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

Vladolph doesn't really have any cards left to play.
If he blows the dam, he won't "win", Ukraine will double down (and he'll also take out a good number of his own forces, too).
If he deployed any form of nuclear weapon anywhere in Ukraine, there will be a response from the US and Allies and his "special operation" will escalate into a situation that he clearly is ill equipped to handle.

His best option is to return his forces to Russia proper, declare his "special operation" a success, hold parades, hand out medals and go on to other things.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 14, 2022)

You cannot expect an unreasonable person to be reasonable.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If he deployed any form of nuclear weapon anywhere in Ukraine, there will be a response from the US and Allies and his "special operation" will escalate into a situation that he clearly is ill equipped to handle.


If he doesn't care, and damn the consequences goes ahead and hits Kyiv with a nuke, how would the US and Allies respond? The US, Britain or France aren't going to hit Moscow with a nuclear strike. The US and NATO may go full in to destroy and push out Russian forces from Ukraine territory including Crimea, but Putin's assuming the territory is lost any way. NATO will not invade Russia itself. 

Putin makes a red line at Crimea nuke threat that the US and NATO feel is credible rather than bluster. What does Biden et all do? And if the strike on Kyiv does happen?


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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

The Whitehouse stated several times, that the use of any form of nuke or chemical weapons in Ukraine will be a "serious mistake" and that Russia will "suffer serious consequences" as a result.

What that may entail, I'm not sure, but that is extremely strong language and the first time the Whitehouse has made statements of that nature since all this began back in February.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 14, 2022)

I think if he does go nuke, he risks his relationship with China and India.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

At risk of this thread turning political again, I can't help but wonder if photos like this are giving Putler pause for thought:






Note...I'm NOT interested in getting into a discussion about the rights/wrongs of the US President meeting his Chinese counterpart. However, ANY remotely positive conversations between the two nations MUST generate discussion in Russia's halls of power.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> At risk of this thread turning political again, I can't help but wonder if photos like this are giving Putler pause for thought:
> 
> View attachment 694457
> 
> ...


The economies of China and the USA are strongly linked. Neither Biden or Xi will want a loser like Putin to wreck the world order. I wonder if Biden asked Xi for any advice, in proper diplomatic speak of course.

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Neither Biden or Xi will want a loser like Putin to wreck the world order.


What you wanna bet the PLA has a few ICBMs targeted on strategic points in Russia as a contingency, "just in case"? Especially one on the Fuhrerbunker.

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## GTX (Nov 14, 2022)

Russian MiG-31 aircraft ‘armed with hypersonic missile’ spotted in Belarus


A Russian MiG-31K Foxhound jet fighter armed with an 'unstoppable' nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was reportedly spotted in Belarus. According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, MiG-31K aircraft with RF-92339 number together with the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) strike system was spotted in...




defence-blog.com

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 14, 2022)

I wonder if that's just a bluff, unless they are fitting them with conventional warhead.

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## J_P_C (Nov 14, 2022)

if you think Ukrainians surprised you enough....

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 14, 2022)

The re are multiple *UNCONFIRMED *reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't

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## SaparotRob (Nov 14, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Ukraine: Putin claims he ‘shares pain’ of troops’ mothers - live
> 
> 
> Russia Ukraine latest news
> ...


Anything to avoid an interview right now. Just ask Vladolph. I guess it beats terminated velocity out the window. Too many reporters.


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## SaparotRob (Nov 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, Lavrov is a convenient blame-sink for Putin for when all goes to hell. He's much more useful alive.


I think that’s what is keeping Shoigu away from staircases.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

Now this is embedded press. I don't think I've ever seen a reporter riding on a tank in a combat zone, even if a rear area. And doesn't this camouflage scheme look good.

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## J_P_C (Nov 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Now this is embedded press. I don't think I've ever seen a reporter riding on a tank in a combat zone, even if a rear area. And doesn't this camouflage scheme look good.



Hessian tapes camo- invented by british in the end of WWII








more modern version of multispectral camo

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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The re are multiple *UNCONFIRMED *reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
> I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
> However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't




Agree that seems VERY rapid....but I am SO hoping it's true.

Thanks for sharing these updates, Roger.

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## J_P_C (Nov 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> The re are multiple *UNCONFIRMED *reports of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of Dnipro.
> I'm skeptical, can't believe Ukrainians crossed Dnipro so easily.
> However I was also surprised to see Zelensky this morning in Kherson, theoretically at artillery range from Russian maybe he knows something we don't



if it is true Ukrainians made incredible use of 40 Riverine boats donated by US...

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> if it is true Ukrainians made incredible use of 40 Riverine boats donated by US...


Agreed. Plus Ukraine is a maritime nation with a strong boatbuilding history, which is why they're being targeted.









Ukrainian RIB plant completely destroyed – INTERPARUS


Yesterday (07/26/22) an anti-aircraft missile destroyed the factory of the manufacturer of inflatable boats MS Marine in Nikolaev. We tell the details of another senseless attack.




interparus.com





But attacks aside, I bet they've been whipping up boats for this and other crossings. 

Is the crossing at the dam completely destroyed? It looked like the Russians just wrecked the smaller diversion dam at the far side. A bridge might be possible.

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## J_P_C (Nov 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. Plus Ukraine is a maritime nation with a strong boatbuilding history, which is why they're being targeted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


have been reported as a "partially damaged" whatever it means


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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russian MiG-31 aircraft ‘armed with hypersonic missile’ spotted in Belarus
> 
> 
> A Russian MiG-31K Foxhound jet fighter armed with an 'unstoppable' nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was reportedly spotted in Belarus. According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, MiG-31K aircraft with RF-92339 number together with the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) strike system was spotted in...
> ...


As awesome as "unstoppable hypersonic missile" sounds, the AEGIS defense system was designed to intercept hypersonic and boost-glide missiles.

The USN has an AEGIS cruiser in the Baltic and another in the north-eastern Mediterranean - the moment the Russians let one loose, it will be tracked with potential intercept, depending on where it's headed.

By the way, when the New Jersey was shelling Syrian positions east of Beirut, the Ticonderoda was tracking the Jersey's 16" rounds in flight.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> By the way, when the New Jersey was shelling Syrian positions east of Beirut, the Ticonderoda was tracking the Jersey's 16" rounds in flight.


Nice, according to USA 16"/50 (40.6 cm) Mark 7 - NavWeaps the max speed of the 16" round would be 1,097 mps or 2453 mph. That's more than Mach 3 at sea level.... for a short period at the muzzle I admit.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice, according to USA 16"/50 (40.6 cm) Mark 7 - NavWeaps the max speed of the 16" round would be 1,097 mps or 2453 mph. That's more than Mach 3 at sea level.... for a short period at the muzzle I admit.



But that's still a long way short of the claimed speed of the Kh-47M2 which is Mach 12.


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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 14, 2022)

Actually a more appropiate title should be."How is NATO equipment faring against Russia"








How Is Russia Faring Against NATO Equipment In Ukraine? A Tally







www.oryxspioenkop.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 14, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> if it is true Ukrainians made incredible use of 40 Riverine boats donated by US...



My bet is, if that is true, is just some spotter or recon units that crossed to spot for artillery.
Hard to believe that its a full assault on left bank, without bridges logistics will not hold.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 14, 2022)

A Strategic Strip Of Sand. Rumors Of Ukrainian Raids. As Russian Forces Retreat, Keep An Eye On The Kinburn Spit.


For the Ukrainians, Kinburn is a back door—a way to get forces onto the left bank of the Dnipro without crossing the river, likely while under fire.




www.forbes.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 14, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> But that's still a long way short of the claimed speed of the Kh-47M2 which is Mach 12.


The AEGIS system was capable of tracking naval shells back in 1984, is has been vastly upgraded since then. 

There were recent articles covering hypersonic weapons (Chinese, Russian and others) and both Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon stated that several systems, AEGIS included, were able to provide intercept and termination of such weapons.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A Strategic Strip Of Sand. Rumors Of Ukrainian Raids. As Russian Forces Retreat, Keep An Eye On The Kinburn Spit.
> 
> 
> For the Ukrainians, Kinburn is a back door—a way to get forces onto the left bank of the Dnipro without crossing the river, likely while under fire.
> ...


Paywall free version archive.ph

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 14, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine receives first batch of German Gepard air defense systems
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov has confirmed the country took delivery of three German short-range air defense systems. "Today, the first three Gepards officially arrived. These are anti-aircraft systems, to which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to...
> ...


Going to good use now.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 14, 2022)

Deserves to be read in full, but too long to quote:









Analysis: Why stop now? Ukraine seen pressing advantage after Kherson victory


After recapturing Kherson from Russian forces and assured of unstinting U.S. support, Ukraine is well positioned to push its advantage in the war rather than accept frozen frontlines through winter, some military analysts said.




www.reuters.com

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## J_P_C (Nov 15, 2022)

today morning - view from the Kremlin office's windows

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> today morning - view from the Kremlin office's windows



That’s got to be visible from the Russian-held side across the Dnieper.

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## J_P_C (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s got to be visible from the Russian-held side across the Dnieper.


Ukrainians are on east bank of Dnieper already - it has been confirmed - it means there is no "Russian held side"

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Russia rains down up to 100 missiles into Ukrainian cities as blackouts follow


Air raid sirens blare and explosions ring out in nearly a dozen major cities after one of the biggest volleys of missiles so far.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

G20 draft declaration strongly condemns Ukraine war


A draft statement from leaders at the G20 summit in Bali strongly condemns the war in Ukraine, and says it is having "significant consequences" for the global economy.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Beatings and electric shocks. UN finds Ukraine and Russia tortured PoWs


Prisoners held by both sides in Russia's war in Ukraine have been subjected to torture, including beatings, electric shocks, and humiliating treatment while naked, UN investigators have said.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations


The top general's remarks about a “window” for talks angered Ukrainian officials, people familiar with the matter said.




www.politico.com

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Ukraine: Zelensky snubs Russia as he addresses 'G19' at G20


Ukraine's president called on world leaders to end the war, and extend a crucial grain deal.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Russia again uses chemical ammo against Ukrainian defenders - Ukrainian World Congress







www.ukrainianworldcongress.org

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Ukraine is scrambling to shoot down Russian missiles and drones. Here are the weapons other countries are sending in to help.


Some of these weapons are useful against aircraft, helicopters, and cruise missiles. Others are meant to shoot down drones.




www.businessinsider.com

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Seizing the memes of advantage in the Ukraine war and beyond | The Strategist


Of all the vagaries we label as ‘non-traditional security’, none is more amusing or indicative of the role of digital networks than that of a compressed, grainy image of a Shiba Inu—a Japanese dog breed ...




www.aspistrategist.org.au

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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

New Zealand expanding Ukraine military assistance package - CONTACT magazine


Share the post "New Zealand expanding Ukraine military assistance package" FacebookLinkedInPinterestTwitterShare…Email New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the United Kingdom



www.contactairlandandsea.com

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## wlewisiii (Nov 15, 2022)

Oh Fuck.

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## wlewisiii (Nov 15, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 15, 2022)

Ukrainian Paratrooper Shoots Down Russian Drone Using British Starstreak Air Defence System - ViralTab


These images show a Ukrainian paratrooper shooting down a Russian Orlan-10 drone using a British Starstreak air defence system. The footage shows the Ukrainian paratrooper aiming the British weapon towards the sky and firing. After a few seconds, the soldier and his colleagues cheer as an...




viraltab.news

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Oh Fuck.



Not an accident. A challenge.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-missiles-poland-nato-1.6652345

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

Oh shit. Missiles hit Poland. 2 people dead.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-airstrikes-reported-cities-across-093940768.html

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## GrauGeist (Nov 15, 2022)

Putin may have just shit the bed...


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## MiTasol (Nov 15, 2022)

It is time he fell out of a window on a high building

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## rochie (Nov 15, 2022)

Oh shit indeed !


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh shit. Missiles hit Poland. 2 people dead.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-airstrikes-reported-cities-across-093940768.html


Poland was supposed to be protected by Patriot batteries. I guess a few, *if not ALL* the missiles directed at Poland got through?









U.S. to Send Patriot Missile Systems to Poland


The U.S. military is sending two Patriot missile-defense systems to Poland, amid growing fears that Russia’s war in Ukraine could threatening neighboring countries. “This defensive deployment is being conducted proactively to counter any potential threat to U.S. and Allied forces and NATO territory




www.wsj.com


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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Poland was supposed to be protected by Patriot batteries. I guess a few, *if not ALL* the missiles directed at Poland got through?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And do you honestly think that what ever Patriot batteries are there are going to protect every square inch of Poland 24/7?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And do you honestly think that what ever Patriot batteries are there are going to protect every square inch of Poland 24/7?


Not at all. We'll soon find out if the missiles struck near the Polish border with Ukraine, presumably where NATO SAMs may be located.

So, what does NATO do now? Presumably whatever support the AFU need to finish this war asap. More ATACMS for AFU HIMARS?


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## wlewisiii (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Not at all. We'll soon find out if the missiles struck near the Polish border with Ukraine, presumably where NATO SAMs may be located.
> 
> So, what does NATO do now? Presumably whatever support the AFU need to finish this war asap. More ATACMS for AFU HIMARS?


It is dependent upon what Poland requests. Most likely an article 4 consultation. But all bets are off if they invoke article 5.

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## wlewisiii (Nov 15, 2022)

More info, unconfirmed obviously.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> More info, unconfirmed obviously.



Translate please

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Translate please


Open the Tweet and click the translate button directly beneath the text.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Poland was supposed to be protected by Patriot batteries. I guess a few, *if not ALL* the missiles directed at Poland got through?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You're making a big assumption that the missiles were directed at Poland. Given Russia's apparent crappy targeting processes and, worse, the poor reliability of some of its weapon systems, I think it far more likely that the missiles landed in Polish territory by accident. The 2 missiles seem to have hit nothing of military importance so, rather than being directed at Poland, I suspect they simply missed the target they were aimed at.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You're making a big assumption that the missiles were directed at Poland.


True, and it looks like it might be the remnants of Ukrainian intercepts. Of course that means the Russians sent a missile awfully close to Poland.


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## J_P_C (Nov 15, 2022)

it was two 5W55 missiles, target was power grid node located close to polish border. Most probably missiles has been lounched by russians from teritory of Belarus

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## manta22 (Nov 15, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> You're making a big assumption that the missiles were directed at Poland. Given Russia's apparent crappy targeting processes and, worse, the poor reliability of some of its weapon systems, I think it far more likely that the missiles landed in Polish territory by accident. The 2 missiles seem to have hit nothing of military importance so, rather than being directed at Poland, I suspect they simply missed the target they were aimed at.


Russian missile accuracy is so bad they can't reliably hit a vehicle, can't hit a building, can't hit a city, and now can't even hit a country. Putin has done more damage to Russia's image as a world- class military power than anyone. Where is Klaus von Stauffenberg when we need him?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Poland was supposed to be protected by Patriot batteries. I guess a few, *if not ALL* the missiles directed at Poland got through?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



1. They may not have have had time to launch.

2. The Patriot system is not 100% effective at shoot-downs. Never has, never will be.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 15, 2022)

Sounds like it was debris from an intercepted missile. Same thing happened to Moldavia (?) the other week.

I suspect that would have had something to do with not being intercepted by a Patriot as well.


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## GrauGeist (Nov 15, 2022)

If it was debris falling into a Patriot's zone, they won't be launched since the missile's flight and intercept had already been tracked/monitored.

There has been occasions were a Patriot will strike debris from an intercepted missile, but that was only after the Patriot had been launched.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If it was debris falling into a Patriot's zone, they won't be launched since the missile's flight and intercept had already been tracked/monitored.
> 
> There has been occasions were a Patriot will strike debris from an intercepted missile, but that was only after the Patriot had been launched.



Agreed.

Even if it was a launch, I believe the Patriot system is no more than 70% effective. During the Gulf War it was between 50 and 70%. Obviously the system has been improved, but nothing will be 100%. You launch enough missiles, something is going to get through.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

NATO could invoke Article 4 after Russian missiles struck Poland. Here's what that means.


Multiple Eastern European countries previously invoked NATO Article 4 in February following Russia's invasion in Ukraine.




www.yahoo.com


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You launch enough missiles, something is going to get through.


Then Ukraine needs more missiles. Today’s events may push even the most reluctant NATO partner to pony up for more SAMS.


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## manta22 (Nov 15, 2022)

"...You launch enough missiles, something is going to get through."

Yes, the term is "saturating" the air defense system.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then Ukraine needs more missiles. Today’s events may push even the most reluctant NATO partner to pony up for more SAMS.



I agree they need more, but no matter how many they get you are still only looking at about a 70% effectivity rate.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 15, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree they need more, but no matter how many they get you are still only looking at about a 70% effectivity rate.



Statistically, 70% effectiveness per unit is one thing, but if you're facing down 100-missile strikes (as the Ukrainians did today), 150-175 SAM launches will be likely to take down just about all the incoming, even accounting for failed launches.

So how many you shoot at the incoming does actually matter, even with a statistical failure rate built-in.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 15, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Statistically, 70% effectiveness per unit is one thing, but if you're facing down 100-misile strikes (as the Ukrainians did today), 150-175 SAM launches will be likely to take down just about all the incoming, even accounting for failed launches.
> 
> So how many you shoot at the incoming does actually matter, even with a statistical failure rate built-in.



Agreed


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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

Something I find interesting in all of this:
If Russia can target power stations with relative accuracy, then it has zero excuses for striking blocks of flats, hospitals and schools and other civilian targets.









Correction: Russia-Ukraine-War story


WARSAW, Poland (AP) — In earlier versions of a story published November 15, 2022, The Associated Press reported erroneously, based on information from a senior American intelligence official who spoke on condition of anonymity, that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland and killed two people.




apnews.com

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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Something I find interesting in all of this:
> If Russia can target power stations with relative accuracy, then it has zero excuses for striking blocks of flats, hospitals and schools and other civilian targets.
> 
> 
> ...



Well...it depends on the weapon systems employed. This very much appears to be an integrated campaign where Russia is using high-precision weapons to hit critical infrastructure like the power grid while using less-accurate systems to demonstrate the inability of Kyiv to protect the people of Ukraine. The problem here is that never in the history of mankind, with the possible exception of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has the indiscriminate targeting of civilians paid off as a war-winning strategy.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

Keep in mind that Hiroshima, Kokura (primary) and Nagasaki (secondary) had a large a large military presence, both in infrastructure and command and control.
The civilians (as with any war since the dawn of time) were collateral damage.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

I know...but nobody can convince me that any nuclear device is a high-precision weapon system. I was simply pointing out that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were the exceptions to the general rule that air bombardment generally fails to "break" a civilian population or the will of national/military leaders.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

Right, I agree - but the exceptional accuracy early in the war, of civilian targets leads me to suspect that these weren't piss-poor aiming, since nearby infrastructure was rarely, if ever, hit.

As the war special operation wore on, there was a shift from civilian targets to power and water.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

The evolving situation regarding the missiles that landed in Poland is creating some interesting insights. First off, it's the Russians who are rabidly indignant about the claim that they may have had something to do with it. While early reporting--on Twitter, mind you...NOT by Western political leaders--did point the finger at Russia, the general tone from the leaders of NATO member nations has been muted. Even the Polish Prime Minister has urged calm. If anyone has a right to be rabidly indignant, it's Mateusz Morawiecki.

It's pretty clear, based on a few comments about trajectories etc., that there's a lot of behind-the-scenes investigation going on to determine where the missile came from. The measured response by NATO members is, IMHO, appropriate. Let's get the facts straight before making any claims and escalating the rhetoric. 

This could be a dangerous situation for Ukraine given that they've already pushed back hard on Russia's suggestion that the missile came from Ukraine. Kyiv's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter "Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defence that fell on the territory of Poland. Which is not true. No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages."

Given the latest snippets which suggest the missile did, indeed, come from Ukraine, this could be a major faux pas by Kyiv...indeed it may be their first major mis-step of the information war. It's one thing to constantly blame Moscow for everything. However, you have to fess up if you make a mistake....or even if you make a correct decision that has unintended consequences. There will be a lot of political damage if evidence points to the missile(s) being Ukrainian but Kyiv maintains the line that it wasn't theirs.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

I've seen several claims that it came from Belarus and I beleive the Poles did confirm it is Russian.

One of the sources, is found in the link I posted earlier. I'll go back through my browser history to see if I can find the other.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

I've yet to see any evidence that the missile was operated by Russia. It seems pretty clear it was an S-300 missile but whether it was operated by Russia, Belarus, Ukraine or someone else remains an open question. The origin of the missile will dictate whether it was being used in surface-to-surface mode by Russia/Belarus or if it was being used defensively with unfortunate collateral damage results.


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## ThomasP (Nov 16, 2022)

From the BBC, I could not get it to link so here is a summary:

"Ukraine accuses Russia of pushing Africans to fight

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has accused Russia of pressuring imprisoned Africans to join the war against Ukraine.

In a tweet, ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko said: "Putin is sending African citizens imprisoned in Russia to the war in Ukraine. A former Zambian student was killed.

"We call on African Union and all African states to demand that Russia stop press ganging their nationals. Africans shouldn't die for Putin's sick imperial ambitions."

It comes after the death of a Zambian student in the fight against Ukraine.

Lemekhani Nyirenda, a 23-year-old Zambian student at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, had been serving nine years in jail for a drug offence.

Nyirenda died in September fighting in Ukraine, but Russia has only now informed Zambia's government.

The circumstances of his release from prison are unknown, but Russia has offered freedom to some prisoners in exchange for fighting in Ukraine."

and:

"Ukraine war: Zambia demands answers for death of student Lemekhani Nyirenda"

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 16, 2022)

NATO aircraft tracked missile that crossed into Poland


A NATO aircraft flying above Polish airspace on Tuesday tracked the missile that landed in the country. Source: CNN, quoting a NATO military official Quote from the NATO official: "Intel with the radar tracks [of the missile] was provided to NATO and Poland.




www.yahoo.com

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## ThomasP (Nov 16, 2022)

Note that the missile that hit Przewodow, Poland was tracked by a NATO surveillance aircraft, and the track information has been communicated to Poland for use in its investigation of the missile strike.

Note that Biden only said that there is plenty of evidence that the missile was not launched from Russian territory.

Note that Belarus has a SAM complex at Brest, and the SAM complex includes the S-300/SA-10 Grumble.

Note that Przewodow lies on a straight line between Brest and Lviv.

Note that I could be wrong.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

Poland's Prime Minister is saying that the explosion in Poland likely came from an air defence missile launched by Ukraine.

Kyiv needs to get on-message with this quickly. They can't just deny that they were responsible. I'm not saying it was intentional....but saying "it wasn't us" won't cut it. Kyiv risks losing a lot of goodwill in the West if they don't acknowledge this.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 16, 2022)

_
BRUSSELS, Nov 16 (Reuters) - NATO's Secretary General on Wednesday said the blast in Poland was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile but that Russia was ultimately responsible because it started the war.

"They are responsible for the war that has caused this situation," Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference after an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors. "Let me be clear this is not Ukraine's fault."

Stoltenberg said the incident proved the risks of the war in Ukraine but had not changed the military alliance's assessment of threat against its members. He added that there was no indication Russia was preparing offensive military actions against NATO allies.


Meanwhile Poland signalled it may in the end not invoke NATO's article 4, which provides for consultations among allies in the face of a security threat, since the blast was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile and not by Russia._









NATO says Poland blast likely caused by Ukrainian missile, but Moscow bears responsibility


NATO's Secretary General on Wednesday said the blast in Poland was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile but that Russia was ultimately responsible because it started the war.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 16, 2022)

_*The Russian military likely used a substantial portion of its remaining high-precision weapon systems in the coordinated missile strikes on November 15. *The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 73 Russian cruise missiles and all drones on November 15.[4] Ukrainian air defenses had previously shot down 43 cruise missiles out of 84 and 13 drones out of 24 during the October 10 coordinated Russian missile strikes.[5] Ukraine's increased shoot-down percentage illustrates the improvement in Ukrainian air defenses in the last month, and the Ukrainian General Staff attributed this improvement to the effectiveness of Western-provided air defense systems. ISW also assesses that Russian forces are greatly depleting their stock of high-precision weapons systems and will likely have to slow the pace of their campaign against critical Ukrainian infrastructure.[6] Russian missile strikes continue to pose a threat to the Ukrainian civilian population with Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko stating that the energy situation is rather "critical" in Ukraine.[7] *Damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure is unlikely to break Ukrainians' spirit, however, given Ukraine's improving air defenses and recent ground victories in Kherson Oblast.*_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _*The Russian military likely used a substantial portion of its remaining high-precision weapon systems in the coordinated missile strikes on November 15. *The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 73 Russian cruise missiles and all drones on November 15.[4] Ukrainian air defenses had previously shot down 43 cruise missiles out of 84 and 13 drones out of 24 during the October 10 coordinated Russian missile strikes.[5] Ukraine's increased shoot-down percentage illustrates the improvement in Ukrainian air defenses in the last month, and the Ukrainian General Staff attributed this improvement to the effectiveness of Western-provided air defense systems. ISW also assesses that Russian forces are greatly depleting their stock of high-precision weapons systems and will likely have to slow the pace of their campaign against critical Ukrainian infrastructure.[6] Russian missile strikes continue to pose a threat to the Ukrainian civilian population with Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko stating that the energy situation is rather "critical" in Ukraine.[7] *Damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure is unlikely to break Ukrainians' spirit, however, given Ukraine's improving air defenses and recent ground victories in Kherson Oblast.*_
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Y'know, I've been hearing for months now that Russia doesn't have many high-precision weapons left. I'm starting to wonder if that's a legitimate assessment or if it's more wishful thinking by analysts.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Keep in mind that Hiroshima, Kokura (primary) and Nagasaki (secondary) had a large a large military presence, both in infrastructure and command and control.


Wasn't one of the reasons Tokyo wasn't target was that there would then be no one to negotiate a ceasefire with? Of course that didn't stop the fire bombing.


buffnut453 said:


> Y'know, I've been hearing for months now that Russia doesn't have many high-precision weapons left. I'm starting to wonder if that's a legitimate assessment or if it's more wishful thinking by analysts.


Me too. Mind you, with the exception of the drone attacks, has Russian fielded much high-precision weaponry? Its ballistic missiles seem more likely to crash into non-strategic buildings.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 16, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Y'know, I've been hearing for months now that Russia doesn't have many high-precision weapons left. I'm starting to wonder if that's a legitimate assessment or if it's more wishful thinking by analysts.



Given how many civilian targets have been hit, can we be sure they were hit by PGMs at all? Or is this a failure of intel analyzing Russian numbers?

The other thing is, as we all know, is that they've resorted to using low-yield SAMS for ground attack. Analysts clamed this was evidence of low stocks of PGMs. But what if the Russians were husbanding the latter for either 1) possible war with NATO or 2) the winter offensive we're seeing now aimed at freezing civilian morale?

I tend to believe they're running low on PGMs.


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## manta22 (Nov 16, 2022)

I repeat my plea..... Where is Klaus von Stauffenberg when we need him?


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## buffnut453 (Nov 16, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Mind you, with the exception of the drone attacks, has Russian fielded much high-precision weaponry? Its ballistic missiles seem more likely to crash into non-strategic buildings.



Well, they're taking out the electricity grid pretty effectively, and many of those targets are pretty small.

I can't help thinking that Russia is using less accurate weapons, like the S300 in surface-to-surface mode, as "SAM sinks" to increase the likelihood that the PGMs will hit their targets without being engaged. This comes back to 

 manta22
's comment about saturating the IADS. The fact that the non-PGM weapons are causing civilian casualties is perhaps just a "bonus" from the Kremlin's perspective.

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## GTX (Nov 16, 2022)

While I knew about the drones I don't recall seeing anything about missiles being sent to Russia as well:









Ukraine war: what new missiles is Iran providing to Russia and what difference will they make?


Iran has showcased these new weapons, with deadly result, in Yemen and Lebanon.




theconversation.com

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## special ed (Nov 16, 2022)

Regarding what goes up must come down, if we remember the F-111 attack on Libya, we were shown debris that was "proof" the US bombed schools and hospitals, until it was pointed out the writing was Russian. The fallout from the "shotgun" anti aircraft missile approach.

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 16, 2022)

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-vadim-boyko-death/2022/11/16/id/1096680/



This Russian Colonel's death was ruled a suicide....................with 5 shots fired. Now, that's dedication!

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## fubar57 (Nov 16, 2022)

"....found multiple handguns at the scene...."

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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> "....found multiple handguns at the scene...."


So with multiple handguns and five shots, he finally hit his temple.

With that kind of marksmanship at that short of a range, it doesn't look good for the rest of the Russian Army...

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## Snautzer01 (Nov 16, 2022)

He must have been a Starwars Stormtrooper

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## SaparotRob (Nov 16, 2022)

He paused only once to reload.

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## swampyankee (Nov 16, 2022)

manta22 said:


> I repeat my plea..... Where is Klaus von Stauffenberg when we need him?



One would want somebody to actually succeed. von Stauffenberg didn't.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 16, 2022)

Interesting update on where the Russians moved from Kherson may be used.

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## MiTasol (Nov 16, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> So with multiple handguns and five shots, he finally hit his temple.
> 
> With that kind of marksmanship at that short of a range, it doesn't look good for the rest of the Russian Army...



Reminds me of a "suicide" in Aus some 20 years back.

Woman was shot in both hands yet was still able to grab the rifle and shoot herself in the head.

Coincidentally, the estranged husband was a policeman and the suicide determination was made by his mates. Tame, or terrified, coroner agreed.

There is no police corruption in Aus.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 16, 2022)

Speaking of suicidally stupid, any news on that Russian MoD spokesman who said "don't rock the boat and mention the Iranian drones" on a live microphone?


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## GrauGeist (Nov 16, 2022)

It seems to me, that top Russian officials have a better chance at surviving on the front lines in Ukraine...

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## manta22 (Nov 16, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> One would want somebody to actually succeed. von Stauffenberg didn't.


It was close...at least he tried.


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## fubar57 (Nov 16, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Speaking of suicidally stupid, any news on that Russian MoD spokesman who said "don't rock the boat and mention the Iranian drones" on a live microphone?


What's the payload capacity of an Iranian drone.....or unladen swallow

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 16, 2022)

A Russian Regiment Reportedly Lost 2,500 Draftees In Just Two Weeks Of Fighting


Posting to Svatove is a veritable death sentence for Russian conscripts.




www.forbes.com





Holy crap.....

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 16, 2022)

What's the tea on the Kinburn Peninsula?

https://morningexpress.in/after-khe...s-operation-on-the-other-side-of-the-dnieper/

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## at6 (Nov 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Ukraine: Putin claims he ‘shares pain’ of troops’ mothers - live
> 
> 
> Russia Ukraine latest news
> ...


Maybe the son of a brothel woman will die. One can only hope. Lavrov, Putin, terrorist leaders of a terrorist nation.


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## at6 (Nov 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> A Russian Regiment Reportedly Lost 2,500 Draftees In Just Two Weeks Of Fighting
> 
> 
> Posting to Svatove is a veritable death sentence for Russian conscripts.
> ...


The more dead Orcs the better. I have no sympathy for the ass hats.


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## at6 (Nov 17, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Whitehouse stated several times, that the use of any form of nuke or chemical weapons in Ukraine will be a "serious mistake" and that Russia will "suffer serious consequences" as a result.
> 
> What that may entail, I'm not sure, but that is extremely strong language and the first time the Whitehouse has made statements of that nature since all this began back in February.


Biden will eat five Tacobell tacos,three bowls of hot chili,and four burritos. He'll then send a fart to Putin.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> Biden will eat five Tacobell tacos,three bowls of hot chili,and four burritos. He'll then send a fart to Putin.



At6, I really like most of your posts....but this is unnecessarily political. You're expressing your view of the President when, in reality, we don't know how he'll respond. 

Also note that if nukes or chemical weapons start being thrown around, it will involve NATO discussions...so other US Allies will get a say in how the Alliance should respond in a unified manner.

Please let's not start another political bonfire. We've collectively done a good job striking the right balance so far on this thread.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 17, 2022)

WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian Analysis Identifies Western Supply Chain Behind Iran’s Drones


Russia’s use of unmanned aircraft provided by Tehran and assembled with foreign-made parts demonstrates the limits of international sanctions.




www.wsj.com


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## at6 (Nov 17, 2022)

I wasn't trying to political, just a little humorous about the possible response.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian Analysis Identifies Western Supply Chain Behind Iran’s Drones
> 
> 
> Russia’s use of unmanned aircraft provided by Tehran and assembled with foreign-made parts demonstrates the limits of international sanctions.
> ...


Paywall free version, archive.ph

I never expected Canadian Rotax engines to be used in drones attacking Ukraine. Shame on Bombardier for selling engines to Iran until 2019, what did they think the Iranians were doing with them, building desert sleds?









Canadian company ‘deeply concerned’ that Iran may be using its engines in war drones


Bombardier Recreational Products stopped sales to Iran in 2019, and says a string of thefts of the engines is one possible explanation




theprovince.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 17, 2022)

at6 said:


> I wasn't trying to political, just a little humorous about the possible response.


I think he was also trying thusly.


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## special ed (Nov 17, 2022)

Could Iran be manufacturing Rotax engines without a license? I'm sure the Chinese would help.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> what did they think the Iranians were doing with them, building desert sleds?


Snow mobiles

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 17, 2022)

The AFU has some good kit here. Any Russian seeing this footage has to think their (or their son's) days are numbers until they exit Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 17, 2022)

special ed said:


> Could Iran be manufacturing Rotax engines without a license? I'm sure the Chinese would help.


China is producing unlicensed copies - there is a marketplace link posted upthread a few weeks back.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 17, 2022)

Here's post regarding pirated Rotax engines:






"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."


Uh, yeah, you are. 2 weeks into the war (and every week thereafter) you have been: That was your sole takeaway from my post? Then I wholly retract those earlier statements, if you're interested to know where I stand on MBTs, see above.



ww2aircraft.net

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 17, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Snow mobiles

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 17, 2022)

Who says humans can't adapt to climate change?

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 17, 2022)

Hmmmm....



Vladimir Putin reportedly has a back-up plan to escape to Africa: Here's what we know about the claims

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## GrauGeist (Nov 17, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Hmmmm....
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin reportedly has a back-up plan to escape to Africa: Here's what we know about the claims


So, the Fuhrer is planning to flee to South America Africa as his leibensraum collapses, eh?

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## special ed (Nov 17, 2022)

What's to keep Touadera from pushing Putin out of a window, paying off the Wagner body guards, and becoming the richest African leader?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> A Russian Regiment Reportedly Lost 2,500 Draftees In Just Two Weeks Of Fighting
> 
> 
> Posting to Svatove is a veritable death sentence for Russian conscripts.
> ...



Sending raw recruits against an experienced mechanized regiment ... not sure what the Russians expected. That's f*cking brutal, 50% of an entire regiment KIA.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 17, 2022)

I was just reading where a Russian unit lost 529 men out of 570 in less than a day, back on 2 November during the battle at Svatove.

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> View attachment 694821


Can't you just see the "Caucasus Cavalry" swarming enemy positions aboard fleets of snowmobiles? Two fixed forward firing Vickers .303s with windshield mounted gunsights, what's not to like? Backseater with a swivel ring mounted Lewis for 6 o'clock protection. They could call it RFC, or "Russian Flying Corpse".

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## GTX (Nov 17, 2022)

Russia unleashes a barrage of strikes on Ukraine, hitting Odesa and Dnipro


Another barrage of Russian missiles strikes energy infrastructure, industrial sites and apartment buildings across Ukraine, as the UN says the Black Sea grain export deal will be extended.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 17, 2022)

Ukraine minister says bodies showing signs of torture found in Kherson


Investigators have found 63 bodies showing signs of torture in the Kherson region, with a local prosecutor saying detainees have been subjected to beatings and electric shocks.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 17, 2022)

'Sending a message to the world': Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest pledges $744 million towards rebuilding Ukraine


The mining magnate invests in a fund that will pour money into primary infrastructure, including energy and communications, in the country.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia unleashes a barrage of strikes on Ukraine, hitting Odesa and Dnipro
> 
> 
> Another barrage of Russian missiles strikes energy infrastructure, industrial sites and apartment buildings across Ukraine, as the UN says the Black Sea grain export deal will be extended.
> ...


Can't Russia see that these barrages achieve nothing? Did Leningrad or Stalingrad surrender or did Stalin wobble when these two cities were being demolished by the Germans?


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## SaparotRob (Nov 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> View attachment 694821


It is flying.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 17, 2022)

special ed said:


> What's to keep Touadera from pushing Putin out of a window, paying off the Wagner body guards, and becoming the richest African leader?


Friendship and loyalty?

🤣


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## SaparotRob (Nov 17, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Can't you just see the "Caucasus Cavalry" swarming enemy positions aboard fleets of snowmobiles? Two fixed forward firing Vickers .303s with windshield mounted gunsights, what's not to like? Backseater with a swivel ring mounted Lewis for 6 o'clock protection. They could call it RFC, or "Russian Flying Corpse".


The AFU is probably way ahead of you. They are a clever bunch.


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## GTX (Nov 17, 2022)

Slovak army gets Leopard tanks under swap deal for Ukraine


The Slovak armed forces will soon receive 15 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks as part of a swap to replace Bratislava’s own equipment given to Ukraine, Rheinmetall announced Tuesday. According to a press release from German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, under the German government’s “Ringtausch”...




defence-blog.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia unleashes a barrage of strikes on Ukraine, hitting Odesa and Dnipro
> 
> 
> Another barrage of Russian missiles strikes energy infrastructure, industrial sites and apartment buildings across Ukraine, as the UN says the Black Sea grain export deal will be extended.
> ...


Putin truly is deranged.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 17, 2022)

Could they be dead?









3 men were just given life sentences over the downing of passenger jet MH17 and the murder of 298 people, but they may never be caught


A Russian-controlled group shot the airliner down over eastern Ukraine in 2014 with a missile supplied by Moscow, a court found.




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Nov 17, 2022)



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## at6 (Nov 17, 2022)

The Ukrainian people are fighting against a hybrid devil from Russia. It's called a Communazi.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Can't Russia see that these barrages achieve nothing? Did Leningrad or Stalingrad surrender or did Stalin wobble when these two cities were being demolished by the Germans?



What I heard on the radio program _The World_ this afternoon reported that the UN is stating that the power-supply issue in Ukraine heading into the winter is "critical", according to the BBC reporter being interviewed. This Reuters report supports that point, even if it doesn't use the same verbiage ("The UN humanitarian office (OCHA) warned of a serious humanitarian crisis in Ukraine this winter, with millions facing "constant power cuts").

Though I agree that these campaigns will probably only harden civilian determination rather than sap its morale, all the same it's a far cry from "nothing", seems to me. Those poor folk will be suffering the next six months from this barrage.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 17, 2022)

I don't know what's going on with the missile strike in Poland but it seemed a great reason for some kind of no-fly zone (had Article 5 been invoked).


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 17, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Could they be dead?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Probably for years.


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## vikingBerserker (Nov 17, 2022)

Last I heard about the missile strike was it was thought a Russian missile flew into Polish airspace with the Ukrainian missile locked on. This makes sense to me as the original report stated two missiles were involved. Sadly is was the Ukrainian one that killed the two people.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 17, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Last I heard about the missile strike was it was thought a Russian missile flew into Polish airspace with the Ukrainian missile locked on. This makes sense to me as the original report stated two missiles were involved. Sadly is was the Ukrainian one that killed the two people.



This is the gist of my reading as well. Russian missile launched from the northeast, this Ukrainian SAM missed -- and had to land somewhere.

What I've heard today from BBC and others is that the Polish government is understanding and not angry.

These things happen. Zelinskyy should await the reports from the Ukrainian team that is apparently on the way to inspect for themselves before he comments any more. 

 buffnut453
is right on that score.

ETA: I'm pretty sure that some serial number or other identifier from this survived the explosion. If it's a legacy Soviet number, Ukraine may have inherited it in 1992, or it may have stayed in Russian stocks, and we can't tell who shot it where or at what. 

But if it's a battery donated from NATO stocks, that serial number will be on the transfer paperwork.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

Scratching my head on how to interpret this, if true.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

More info about the "nuclear" x-55 used









Cruise missile with a dummy nuclear warhead lands in Ukraine - where is the real warhead? - Technology Org


Ukrainian air defense today eliminated an unusual Russian cruise missile.




www.technology.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

This is also a recurrent rumor every few days, wondering if its actually true.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Scratching my head on how to interpret this, if true.





RogerdeLluria said:


> More info about the "nuclear" x-55 used
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Seems like the RF tried to use it for the kinetic blast it could achieve in an impact.

Maybe it's true that the PGM are running out.


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## Denniss (Nov 18, 2022)

I hope they never send one where they "forgot" to remove the nuke warhead

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I hope they never send one where they "forgot" to remove the nuke warhead


Despite what twitter may say, I don't think this was the case. Most probably was a training nuke-like missile or a nuke-like decoy


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## Frog (Nov 18, 2022)

A colonel Vadim Boyko, 44 years, found dead in his Vladivostok office from 5 gunshots wounds from 4 different weapons.
Authorities conclude to a suicide, family disagrees...

*


https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awr.hkdSendjpkgIKzsk24lQ;_ylu=Y29sbwNpcjIEcG9zAzEEdnRpZANTRlNZRlRuZXdfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1668803282/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.sudinfo.be%2fid574820%2farticle%2f2022-11-16%2fguerre-en-ukraine-un-colonel-de-vladimir-poutine-retrouve-mort-dans-son-bureau/RK=2/RS=cImNkrI6sN6sPTY4JEG595K2CDE-


*


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## Greg Boeser (Nov 18, 2022)

Suicide by security service. Very common these days.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 18, 2022)

The battle for Bakhmut seems to be seeing some progress for the Russians.









Battle of Bakhmut - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org













Russia is advancing in the Donetsk region, the most difficult battles are taking place near Bakhmut


Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain does not rule out that Russia will transfer its troops from the Kherson direction to the Donetsk region in order to strengthen its offensive operations in the area of the city of Bakhmut.




www.txtreport.com





The AFU must hold the line otherwise the Russians can attack northward towards Lyman behind the Ukrainian lines, cutting off supply and reinforcement routes. If Bakhmut falls the AFU line may need to collapse further inland.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

Winter is coming.



Also the winter cammo don't seem very effective.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

Unconfirmed, but seems there is no safe port for Black Sea Russian ships








Ukraine's Maritime Drone Strikes Again: Reports Indicate Attack On Novorossiysk - Naval News


It appears that a Ukrainian maritime drone, similar to those using in an attack on Sevastopol, has struck Novorossiysk. This would be strategically important, showing that more of the Russian Navy is under threat.




www.navalnews.com

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

at6 said:


> The Ukrainian people are fighting against a hybrid devil from Russia. It's called a Communazi.


No - just old fashioned Facist

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Winter is coming.
> 
> 
> 
> Also the winter cammo don't seem very effective.



Meanwhile the West won't let Ukraine's army or people freeze.









Ukraine Gets Help Bundling Up for Frigid Winter Fight


With winter approaching on the Ukrainian steppe, U.S. officials have said the provision of warm clothing is one way allies who are unable to turn over lethal weapons can contribute to the Ukrainian war effort.




www.wsj.com













UK to send heated tents and cold weather gear to Ukraine ahead of perilous winter


Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says he is "pleased that UK-donated kit will be keeping the Ukrainian armed forces warm and safe as they face a perilous winter fighting for their country".




news.sky.com













Germany will give Ukraine winter uniforms and equipment worth 11 million euros - Spiegel


It is about 100,000 units of winter uniforms, 100 team tents with heating and electric generators.




tpyxa.net













Gloves and ammunition: Canada sending new aid package to Ukraine


As Ukraine seeks to defend against Russia's continued attacks, including recent missile strikes, Canada announced Wednesday that it'll be sending its European ally a new $47-million aid package that includes artillery as well as winter gear such as gloves and parkas.




www.ctvnews.ca













NATO is rushing equipment to Ukraine as troops hunker down for the winter


The war begins a new phase as Russia launches missiles and temperatures fall.




www.politico.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Meanwhile the West won't let Ukraine's army or people freeze.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah, it looks like the winter comfort scale will be something like this:
Westerners complaining about gas prices >> Ukrainian soldiers >> Ukrainian civil population >> Russian soldiers

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

Well it didn't take long for Putin's "fellow travellers" to show their true colours. I hope Ukraine wins before (but I am scared they won't) this lot stab them in the back ...and line up for their Order of Saint Andrew the Apostle the First-Called or even Hero of the Russian Federation (though the latter involves actually bravery which certainly isn't the case here):









Marjorie Taylor Greene compares invading Russians to U.S. migrants


Greene also accused the U.S. of fighting a "proxy war with Russia" while speaking about a resolution to audit aid to Ukraine on Thursday.




www.newsweek.com






https://thehill.com/policy/international/3740834-marjorie-taylor-greene-unveils-resolution-to-audit-ukraine-aid-funds/

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## manta22 (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> No - just old fashioned Facist


Facist is a whole different thing. These days that word has become a catch-phrase for anything authoritarian.

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

7ft boxer Nikolai Valuev rushed to hospital after being drafted by Putin


FORMER boxing World Champion and pro-Putin politician Nikolai Valuev has been mysteriously rushed to hospital weeks after he was drafted to fight in Ukraine. Russian state media reports that the 7-…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Facist is a whole different thing. These days that word has become a catch-phrase for anything authoritarian.


True but the term is short hand for a "...far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition..." which certainly fits the bill here. If someone has a better term I am glad to adopt.

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## manta22 (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> True but the term is short hand for a "...far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition..." which certainly fits the bill here. If someone has a better term I am glad to adopt.


"Authoritarian" seems adequate.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Well it didn't take long for Putin's "fellow travellers" to show their true colours. I hope Ukraine wins before (but I am scared they won't) this lot stab them in the back ...and line up for their Order of Saint Andrew the Apostle the First-Called or even Hero of the Russian Federation (though the latter involves actually bravery which certainly isn't the case here):
> 
> 
> 
> ...



She already said she wanted to end all aid and assistance to Ukraine. The QANON creep is a disgrace to the United States.

Even her husband gave up on her, and filed for divorce.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> True but the term is short hand for a "...far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition..." which certainly fits the bill here. If someone has a better term I am glad to adopt.


***hole.

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Authoritarian" seems adequate.


Doesn't feel to carry the true 'flavour'. One could be authoritarian but still drive good for their populations in general. For example, one could argue that Singapore's former leader Lee Kuan Yew was somewhat "Authoritarian" though I doubt many would compare him to the likes of Putin.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Unconfirmed, but seems there is no safe port for Black Sea Russian ships
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Confirmed

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Authoritarian" seems adequate.


This works fine, regardless of underlying ideology.

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Winter is coming.
> 
> 
> 
> Also the winter cammo don't seem very effective.




Compare with Ukrainian winter cammo

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 18, 2022)

I wonder if any of these got to Ukraine?









Canadian, Ukranian companies team up for manufacturing and supply agreement | Powersports Business


ARGO announced it has entered into a manufacturing and supply agreement with SHERP to expand its current offering of commercial amphibious XTVs.




powersportsbusiness.com





Argo is a Canadian producer of amphibious atvs.






Vehicles | Argo XTV







argoxtv.com

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## vikingBerserker (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Confirmed



Man, I so hope that's true!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 18, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Unconfirmed, but seems there is no safe port for Black Sea Russian ships
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A long way to Novorossiysk if going around the crimean península.

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

https://news.defence.gov.au/international/chief-army-praises-ukrainian-recruits

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

The Winter War in Ukraine


The coming of the cold weather will not stop the war, but it will change its tempo - and offer opportunities to plan the campaigns to come.




mickryan.substack.com

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## GTX (Nov 18, 2022)

Ukraine has momentum. What it needs now are munitions


The western countries are ramping up




www.economist.com

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## Zipper730 (Nov 18, 2022)

There were so many items of discussions worth mentioning here and, while I was planning on responding to each one, I didn't attach the replies correctly, so I'll just address them off memory.

*1. Nuclear Powerplant Related*​
A. Radiological Impacts on Russia


 buffnut453
hit the nail on the head here in that Putin doesn't care about the effects his actions have on the Russian population. He's a malignant narcissist who sees himself as mattering more than the state, and the population only existing to serve the state. If it damaged Ukraine enough, he would accept the fact that large numbers of Russian citizens would suffer radiation poisoning, give birth to deformed children and/or children with very high rates of radiation-caused cancers.​
B. Russia planned to demolish a dam
If I recall, it provided cooling water to Zaporizhia's powerplant. Have they found/dismantled the explosives?​*2. Biological Warfare Threats*​There was a threat made to unleash pathogen carrying insects as a followup to in the event that a dirty-bomb went off based on claims that DARPA has considered the idea of using pathogenic carrying insects (That's actually true: DARPA has looked into that idea): Has this threat abated?​






​


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## fubar57 (Nov 18, 2022)

^......and I am now officially out^

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## Dana Bell (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> True but the term is short hand for a "...far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition..." which certainly fits the bill here. If someone has a better term I am glad to adopt.


Hi GTX,

I don't come here to learn more about your opinions on US (or other) politics. Post links as you wish but shut TFU with your BS.

Dana

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine has momentum. What it needs now are munitions
> 
> 
> The western countries are ramping up
> ...



A good analysis as usual from Gen Ryan, but I believe in addition to what he's written that the Ukrainians will try to continue foot-mobile operations in order to leverage the advantage they have over the Russian conscripts, in order to prevent them having a couple of undisturbed months to complete their training.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> Hi GTX,
> 
> I don't come here to learn more about your opinions on US (or other) politics. Post links as you wish but shut TFU with your BS.
> 
> Dana



Is this really necessary?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> Hi GTX,
> 
> I don't come here to learn more about your opinions on US (or other) politics. Post links as you wish but shut TFU with your BS.
> 
> Dana



And was this level of response necessary?

No…

If you have an issue with another poster then reach out to the admin/mods and let us handle it.

The type of reaction you posted is no better. People don’t come here to read it either.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Oh no, I got a dislike! What will I do?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

ISW, once more:

_*Russian forces in eastern Kherson Oblast are likely partially vulnerable to a Ukrainian interdiction campaign such as the one Ukrainian forces successfully exploited to retake western Kherson Oblast. *Several major ground lines of communication (GLOCs) run through eastern Kherson Oblast into other Russian-controlled areas in southern Ukraine: the southern T2202 Nova Kahkovka-Armiansk route, the southeastern P47 Kakovkha-Henichesk route, and the M14 highway that runs eastward into Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol. Geolocated satellite imagery indicates that Russian troops are establishing defensive positions along some of these critical GLOCs, and social media reporting indicates that Ukrainian strikes have already begun targeting Russian concentration areas and military assets on these routes.[4] The limited number of high-quality roads and railways in this area, particularly connecting Crimea to the mainland, creates potential bottlenecks that could be vulnerable to Ukrainian interdiction efforts that would gradually degrade the Russian ability to continue supplying its grouping in eastern Kherson Oblast and other areas of southern Ukraine. ISW previously reported the targeting of similar bottlenecks along key GLOCS--not just the bridges across the Dnipro River--during Ukraine's Kherson counteroffensive in late August to mid-October culminated in the Russian withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast to positions further south of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces will likely find it harder to achieve such dramatic effects in eastern Kherson but may be able to disrupt Russian efforts to solidify and hold their new defensive lines._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





Next tranche of American aid needs to have plenty of HIMARS/MLRS reloads, to enable Ukrainian operational pacing and interrupt Russian winter logistics. The weather can thereby do better work at weakening the Russian forces.

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## FLYBOYJ (Nov 18, 2022)

Just for the record - I'm a member...

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## fubar57 (Nov 18, 2022)




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## vikingBerserker (Nov 18, 2022)

Well. since you asked perhaps stop talking politics?


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> Well. since you asked perhaps stop talking politics?



Show me where I talked politics. Where did I mention any political party or particular political entity.

I called her a QANON creep. - FACT

I said she wanted to stop funding and aid to Ukraine. - FACT and this is allowed per the discussion because it relates to the war in Ukraine. Ukraine would not be winning this war without the aid from the west.

I said she is a disgrace. - FACT

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

If you think what I said is political, then the thread will be closed. Why? Because the entire topic is political in one way or another.

Shall we close it?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

I think you know damn well the kind of political talk that is not allowed. And so far none of that has taken place.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

As for the “authoritarian definition” debate taking place, I agree. It is not necessary. Too many people likely to get butt hurt, so it should not be taking place here.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

I think the aid packages etc have a political dimension, of course, but mentioning them in a nonpartisan and objective manner doesn't strike me as very political.


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## Snautzer01 (Nov 18, 2022)

Why is this spinning out off control? We had a good thing going here. my number 1 place to get info i trust. 


We need a clean at isle 767

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the aid packages etc have a political dimension, of course, but mentioning them in a nonpartisan and objective manner doesn't strike me as very political.



Everything about this conflict is political.

What about any war is not? That is why we eased (but not lifted the politics rule). 

And that is what I did. I never said anything about her party or political beliefs.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Why is this spinning out off control? We had a good thing going here. my number 1 place to get info i trust.
> 
> 
> We need a clean at isle 767



But because some cannot handle the rules, and others are making a mountain out of a mole hill.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Basically we are the prime example of a dysfunctional family sitting around the Thanksgiving dinner table. 

Every dysfunctional family has its Uncle Randy… lol

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Everything about this conflict is political.
> 
> What about any war is not? That is why we eased (but not lifted the politics rule).
> 
> And that is what I did. I never said anything about her party or political beliefs.



Right, that comment of mine was not aimed at anyone, just a general observation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Basically we are the prime example of a dysfunctional family sitting around the Thanksgiving dinner table.
> 
> Every dysfunctional family has its Uncle Randy… lol



Okay, where'd you hide your goddamned cameras? <tears through the house looking for devices>

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, that comment of mine was not aimed at anyone, just a general observation.



Yeah, and mine was not aimed at you directly either.

I think everyone just needs to take a step back and drink some spiked eggnog.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Yeah, and mine was not aimed at you directly either.
> 
> I think everyone just needs to take a step back and drink some spiked eggnog.



I'm having a Yuengling chocolate porter, hope that counts for holiday food -- er, drink.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm having a Yuengling chocolate porter, hope that counts for holiday food -- er, drink.



The Hershey’s one?

I hate Hershey’s…

How is the Porter though?


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## Snautzer01 (Nov 18, 2022)

Yes we are sometimes the prime example of a dysfunctional family sitting around the Thanksgiving dinner table. And i am happy to sit with all of you. Not always agreeing what is said, specially on "hot"topics but that is what can happen. Vent and let it go. We have to come too far in this thread to start throwing the gravy and table ware at each other.
As my mom said: if you cant sit at the table take it private. And she did not have internet.

Eggnog anybody?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> The Hershey’s one?
> 
> I hate Hershey’s…
> 
> How is the Porter though?



The porter is good, though very rich (and yes, the Hershey's). I prefer coffee porters to chocolate myself, but I'm adventurous so got a sixer just to see what's what. I could see it washing down a holiday meal, but it ain't no barbecue beer, fo sho.

A little bit poured into a beef stew would probably liven that up, too. It's a chewy brew.

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## Snautzer01 (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yuengling chocolate porter


Had to look that one up

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## Snautzer01 (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> little bit poured into a beef stew would probably liven that up, too. It's a chewy brew.


You do need to go badly to Europe. Fact. Youre taste buds will in paradise.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> You do need to go badly to Europe. Fact. Youre taste buds will in paradise.



I have. I lived in Spain for a year, and have visited UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany, all briefly. Liked a lot of the food. Love Greek food as well, but haven't eaten it there, which means it's the American version of Greek.

Putting wine or beer into my stews was something I learnt from a girlfriend born and raised in England, and was a great boost to my cooking that dish. I'll braise the beef in wine and oil, and then when I fill out the stew with veggies and roux, add another dollop. Usually a dark red, merlot or cab sauv, but beer as well is complimentary.

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## Zipper730 (Nov 18, 2022)

While some people are talking about far left and far right, I'd like to encourage people to read about the Horseshoe theory. When you go sufficiently far left or right the policies often look very similar to each other.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> While some people are talking about far left and far right, I'd like to encourage people to read about the Horseshoe theory. When you go sufficiently far left or right the policies often look very similar to each other.



We see this in the issue of supporting Ukraine, sure. It's just that that is a discussion for a political forum, I believe.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I have. I lived in Spain for a year, and have visited UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany, all briefly. Liked a lot of the food. Love Greek food as well, but haven't eaten it there, which means it's the American version of Greek.
> 
> Putting wine or beer into my stews was something I learnt from a girlfriend born and raised in England, and was a great boost to my cooking that dish. I'll braise the beef in wine and oil, and then when I fill out the stew with veggies and roux, add another dollop. Usually a dark red, merlot or cab sauv, but beer as well is complimentary.



Speaking of beer from Europe, I received some from Germany today. A local one from home you cannot get here in the states.

And we find ourselves on the revolving off topic tangent that somehow finds its way back to the original topic. 

Oh I know how! Anyone know how I can support the war effort by buying some Ukrainian beer?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine has momentum. What it needs now are munitions
> 
> 
> The western countries are ramping up
> ...


Paywall free version: archive.ph


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh I know how! Anyone know how I can support the war effort by buying some Ukrainian beer?


Labatt's usually makes a terrible product, but I'd drink this.

https://www.brewersjournal.ca/2022/08/10/labatt-launches-ukrainian-tribute-beer-across-canada/
And of course my western Canadian cousins with their large population of ethnic Ukrainians (including Mrs. Beez) have the genuine article.









Chernigivske Ukrainian Lager 6 Cans


Chernigivske is a traditional Ukrainian lager that is loved by multiple generations, for its crisp and refreshing taste and a character that perfectly balances Ukrainian’s strength and spirit. It pours a crystal clear golden colour with a bright white head. Chernigivske has a sweet aroma, with...



shopliquoryxe.ca





And we have some local brews of a Ukrainian style sold in support of Ukraine.









Four Fathers Brewing Extends Charity Campaign for Ukraine War Relief


CAMBRIDGE, ON – Four Fathers Brewing has announced that a campaign launched last month to raise funds for war relief efforts in Ukraine has been extended until at least the end of April. Proceeds from sales of the brewery's flagship Shevchenko 9 Ukrainian Dunkel (5% abv) is being donated to the U




www.canadianbeernews.com

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## Dimlee (Nov 18, 2022)

A mysterious explosion in the Novorossiysk.


https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/v-novorosijsku-morskyj-bpla-urazyv-naftogavan/










Maritime drone exploded last night in Novorosiysk, video published Novorossiysk, Krasnodarskiy kray - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


Maritime drone exploded last night in Novorosiysk, video published. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism...




liveuamap.com












A naval drone of the Armed Forces of…


A naval drone of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the Sheskharis oil harbor in Novorossiysk. According to our information, an explosion in the harbor area was recorded on the night of November 18th. In the morning, experts recorded damage - they ar...




russianfreepress.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Oh no, I got a dislike! What will I do?


I suggest you drink heavily. I was pre-med in college.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 18, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> Just for the record - I'm a member...
> 
> View attachment 695035


A Landsman! I thought that was you!


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## SaparotRob (Nov 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> If someone has a better term I am glad to adopt.


If that isn't a straight line, I don't know what is.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Nov 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I suggest you drink heavily. I was pre-med in college.



I’ll probably do that.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Speaking of beer from Europe, I received some from Germany today. A local one from home you cannot get here in the states.
> 
> And we find ourselves on the revolving off topic tangent that somehow finds its way back to the original topic.
> 
> Oh I know how! Anyone know how I can support the war effort by buying some Ukrainian beer?



If I could find some here I'd certainly give it a shot. I've had Polish beer before, long ago enough I cant remember the label, but it was a really good lager. I bet with all their grain-fields the Ukrainians have brewing down pat too.

And I'd rather talk beer thn politics any day of the week, and two cans on Sunday.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’ll probably do that.



(anyway)


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## manta22 (Nov 18, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If I could find some here I'd certainly give it a shot. I've had Polish beer before, long ago enough I cant remember the label, but it was a really good lager. I bet with all their grain-fields the Ukrainians have brewing down pat too.
> 
> And I'd rather talk beer thn politics any day of the week, and two cans on Sunday.


When I was in East Berlin in '62, I and 3 fellow GI friends dropped into a restaurant there, "the Bucharest" and ordered a Soviet beer that was listed on the menu. The waiter replied that it "was not available" so I asked what he recommended. We ordered the Romanian beer and found that the label listed it at 14% alcohol. Needless to say, being in the Soviet Zone of Berlin, we each only had one beer.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 18, 2022)

manta22 said:


> When I was in East Berlin in '62, I and 3 fellow GI friends dropped into a restaurant there, "the Bucharest" and ordered a Soviet beer that was listed on the menu. The waiter replied that it "was not available" so I asked what he recommended. We ordered the Romanian beer and found that the label listed it at 14% alcohol. Needless to say, being in the Soviet Zone of Berlin, we each only had one beer.



Completely jealous. In 1990 in Spain for Desert Storm we could get Bud or Miller at the E-club, or go out on the town and get either San Miguel or (hork!) Cruzcampo.


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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 19, 2022)

As of today today the number of vehicles and heavy equipment lost by Russians reached the 8000 mark
1500 (well almost ) of them tanks.













Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine







www.oryxspioenkop.com





Quite a few loses for a 9 month "military operation"

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## buffnut453 (Nov 19, 2022)

Ukraine war will be over by end of spring, country's deputy defence minister predicts


The retired major general says his nation will never stop fighting until victory and even a Russian nuclear strike would not end the struggle to drive out invading Kremlin forces.




news.sky.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war will be over by end of spring, country's deputy defence minister predicts
> 
> 
> The retired major general says his nation will never stop fighting until victory and even a Russian nuclear strike would not end the struggle to drive out invading Kremlin forces.
> ...


I hope he’s right.

Much of the NATO-provided self propelled artillery and rocket artillery is truck-based, rather than tracked. Will this hinder their winter use? I suppose once/if the ground freezes and hardens that wheeled SPG might be okay.

If the AFU can keep on the offensive through winter I think Russia, with its already demotivated army now ill-equipped for the cold, is in big trouble.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 19, 2022)

Someone smoking in St Petersburg

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## manta22 (Nov 19, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Someone smoking in St Petersburg



POL dump?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 19, 2022)

manta22 said:


> POL dump?



The smoke doesn't match that sort of fire.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 19, 2022)

Tesla going up in flames?

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## manta22 (Nov 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The smoke doesn't match that sort of fire.


You're right, it would have been black.

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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)

They call it 'The Hole'. Inside the Kherson police station where locals say Russia carried out torture


Local people detail how they heard screams coming from a converted police station and saw bodies being removed while the city was under Russian occupation.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)

'Gross sabotage': Sweden finds traces of explosives at Nord Stream site


The parallel undersea pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany, were ruptured in September.




www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 19, 2022)

manta22 said:


> POL dump?


Seems it's a gas pipeline









Explosion hits Russian gas pipeline amid suspicions of sabotage


The fireball was visible for miles in every direction after hitting about 14 miles east of St Petersburg, the nation's second largest city and Putin's hometown.




www.dailymail.co.uk





Russians having a taste of what Putin is doing in Ukraine


> The blast caused disruption to the Severnaya Thermal Power Plant, which heats hundreds of thousands of homes at a time when temperatures are around minus 5C.
> 
> The plant provides electrical and thermal energy to factories, residential areas and public buildings in the northern part of the Vyborgsky and Kalininsky districts of St. Petersburg, as well as the settlements of Novoe Devyatkino and Murino, and the Vsevolozhsky district of the Leningrad region.
> 
> In total more than 800,000 people receive heat from the Severnaya plant.

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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)

Good to see them still in the fight:

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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 19, 2022)

Spy, murderer, fugitive: The elusive figure behind MH17 and Putin's war in Ukraine


An ultranationalist former spy and self-described war addict, Igor Girkin is among three men sentenced to life in prison over the murders of 298 innocent people onboard MH17. With a $149,000 bounty on his head, he is yet to face justice.




www.abc.net.au

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## ThomasP (Nov 19, 2022)

More smoking.

"https://mil.in.ua/en/news/an-explos...n-the-oriol-region-of-the-russian-federation/"

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## GrauGeist (Nov 19, 2022)

So all these attacks on Russian infrastructure is not the work of the Azov mother/daughter team??

I'm really disappointed...

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## nuuumannn (Nov 19, 2022)

Following the next page's discussions, I'll discreetly delete this post (he says, nervously backing away)

Back to the war at hand...


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## buffnut453 (Nov 19, 2022)

Seems like the cost of the not-war is starting to bite. Wonder how long this kind of debt sell-off can be sustained by Moscow?









Russia ‘borrows $13.6bn in largest ever debt issuance in a single day’


In its latest intelligence report, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) warned that the cash raised is a ‘key mechanism to sustain defence spending’




www.standard.co.uk

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## GrauGeist (Nov 19, 2022)

Aparently, Vladolph (reading from Hitler's playbook) assumed this scuffle would be a short one and the world would be cowed by the shock and awe of the mighty Russian military machine.

However, the "special operation" turned out to be a nichtskreig and much like WWII Germany, cannot sustain such losses in men and material for an extended war.


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## hawkeye2an (Nov 19, 2022)

GTX said:


> View attachment 695130


But we now know the Bear was NOT that big

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## XBe02Drvr (Nov 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aparently, Vladolph (reading from Hitler's playbook) assumed this scuffle would be a short one and the world would be cowed by the shock and awe of the mighty Russian military machine.


Let's hear it for the FSB (Federal Sycophants Bureau) and their *outstanding* intelligence assessments.

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## ThomasP (Nov 20, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Seems like the cost of the not-war is starting to bite. Wonder how long this kind of debt sell-off can be sustained by Moscow?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Who is buying it? I suspect no one in the western world and have serious doubts about others. Maybe China or India to have some kind of leverage in case of default to bargain (more oil or cheaper) but can't think of anyone else.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Good to see them still in the fight:



Nice pic. As a young lad in the early 1980s I remember reports coming out about the MiG-29 and Su-27. Both seemed amazing coming from an Air Force then flying the likes of the MiG-21.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 20, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Let's hear it for the FSB (Federal Sycophants Bureau) and their *outstanding* intelligence assessments.



Boy, you want to talk about screwing the pooch ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 20, 2022)

_*US intelligence officials stated on November 19 that Russian and Iranian officials finalized a deal in early November to manufacture Iranian drones on Russian territory.*[7] The US officials stated that the deal could allow Russia to "dramatically increase its stockpile" of Iranian drones. The Washington Post reported that Russian forces have launched 400 Iranian kamikaze drones since first using them in the Ukrainian theater in August, and Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Ukrainian forces down 70% of drones before they can strike their targets.[8] The US officials stated that it is unclear what assistance Russia will provide to Iran in return for the drones.[9] The deepening relationship between Russia and Iran, specifically in the provision of long-range munitions such as kamikaze drones and precision missiles, may allow Russian forces to sustain their campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure for a longer period than their diminishing stockpile of munitions would otherwise allow. This report also suggests that Russia can somehow circumvent Western sanctions to acquire the microchips needed to program the drones it plans on manufacturing. A Russian milblogger claimed that the deal allows Russian officials to claim they build Russian drones—thus providing an informational win—having previously stated that the domestic manufacturing of Iranian drones on Russian territory humiliates Russia.[10]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





If true, vey bad news for the Ukrainian populace.

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

I hope he is right:









Ukraine boasts it could retake Crimea by Christmas & defeat Russia by Spring


UKRAINE could reach Crimea by Christmas and end the war by next spring, according to Kyiv. Retired major general Volodymyr Havrylov said it is “only a matter of time” before Ukraine rec…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

'Beginning of the end of the war': Kherson comes alive after Russian withdrawal


Despite the hardships, residents are expressing a mix of relief, optimism, and even joy a week since the southern Ukrainian city was liberated.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

Rishi Sunak makes surprise trip to Kyiv, announces $89 million in air defences support


The air-defence package comes as Russia pounds Ukraine's power grid and other key infrastructure from the air, causing widespread blackouts for millions of Ukrainians amid frigid weather.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## Denniss (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

War in Ukraine: Krab Howitzers Firing the Excalibur Rounds


Krab howitzers handed off to the Armed Forces of Ukraine are broadly employing the Excalibur PGMs. This means that the system has the capability to precisely engage targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometres.




defence24.com

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

Way too many sitting on the fence here.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 20, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> But we now know the Bear was NOT that big



Not true. The Bear was DEFINITELY that big...it was just this type of bear rather than a befanged beast of Beelzebub:







At least the colour of this bear is bang-on for Putin and his followers...complete with the bow on the head.

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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Nov 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Way too many sitting on the fence here.



Most of the abstaining nations are most likely afraid of upsetting Russia (or affiliates).


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## GTX (Nov 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Most of the abstaining nations are most likely afraid of upsetting Russia (or affiliates).


Oh I understand that. Doesn't mean I like it when the likes of such sit back and watch when a crime is being committed.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 20, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Who is buying it? I suspect no one in the western world and have serious doubts about others. Maybe China or India to have some kind of leverage in case of default to bargain (more oil or cheaper) but can't think of anyone else.



I suspect a number of Putler's oligarch billionaire buddies may be stumping up funds (a) to shore up the regime, or (b) giving some before the regime takes it all (which is probably a naiive hope anyway, 'cos dictators take everything anyway). I also wouldn't put it past China or other nations to be buying some of this debt in hopes of securing leverage in the future.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Oh I understand that. Doesn't mean I like it when the likes of such sit back and watch when a crime is being committed.


True, but for some odd reason, those countries seem to be afraid of Russia or it's comrades.

Which now, after nine months of showing the world just how inept the Russian military really is, should embolden these smaller nations to move away from fearing Putin.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 20, 2022)

Perhaps some of these nations are waiting for Russia to be weakened a bit more or those countries are too shaky to try anything.

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## gumbyk (Nov 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Way too many sitting on the fence here.



My fear is that reparations will simply set up the same scenario we had at the end of WW1, where harsh reparations set the scene for Hitler.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I suspect a number of Putler's oligarch billionaire buddies may be stumping up funds (a) to shore up the regime, or (b) giving some before the regime takes it all (which is probably a naiive hope anyway, 'cos dictators take everything anyway).


Could be but much of the oligarch money must be frozen in the west and don't know if the are willing to spend any remaining in such junk bonds.

Or better said, they are not willing for sure but don't know if they will try to hide from Putin. A dangerous trick for sure. I can see some falls through the windows if they get caught.

As they say, once you start dancing with the devil you must dance its tune.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 20, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> My fear is that reparations will simply set up the same scenario we had at the end of WW1, where harsh reparations set the scene for Hitler.



Errr....but Russia already has a Hitler. 

In a more serious vein, I do worry that the cure for Putler may be worse than the disease..."the devil you know" and all that.

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## gumbyk (Nov 20, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Errr....but Russia already has a Hitler.
> 
> In a more serious vein, I do worry that the cure for Putler may be worse than the disease..."the devil you know" and all that.


Yes, and with more popular support at home.

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## at6 (Nov 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Basically we are the prime example of a dysfunctional family sitting around the Thanksgiving dinner table.
> 
> Every dysfunctional family has its Uncle Randy… lol


You have a table? The lap of luxury. All we have is a cracker box.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 20, 2022)

We burned our cracker box to keep from freezing to death.

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## at6 (Nov 20, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I suggest you drink heavily. I was pre-med in college.





DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’ll probably do that.


Now I'm so thankful that I'm not a moderator.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 21, 2022)

Interesting cost - benefit analysis









It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia


The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible. It’s producing wins at almost every level.




cepa.org

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## ThomasP (Nov 21, 2022)

The cost looks even smaller when you compare it to the GDP.

US Defense Spending (not the Defense Budget) is expected to be ~$1.05 trillion out of an expected US GDP of ~$23 trillion for the year 2022.
The $80 billion for Ukraine is ~0.35% (note that is only a little over 1/3 of 1%) of the expected US GDP for the year 2022.

During WWII the US Defense Spending averaged almost 40% of the GDP for the years 1943-1945.

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## swampyankee (Nov 21, 2022)

gumbyk said:


> My fear is that reparations will simply set up the same scenario we had at the end of WW1, where harsh reparations set the scene for Hitler.


Poorly enforced harsh reparations, compounded by lying army officers who kept saying they hadn't lost and kept blaming Jews and politicians. The Germans so badly managed their wartime economy that there was massive starvation within Germany well before 11/11/1918

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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2022)

Source: BBC.

_Russian forces are forming defensive positions manned by poorly trained reservists around Svatove in the Luhansk region of north-eastern Ukraine, the UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) says.

The area is likely now a more vulnerable operational flank for Russia, the MoD's latest report finds.

Moscow could see retaining control of Svatove as a political priority, the update says. But commanders are "likely struggling" with maintaining a credible defence while attempting to resource offensive operations further south in Donetsk.

"Both Russian defensive and offensive capability continues to be hampered by severe shortages of munitions and skilled personnel," the report adds._

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## Glider (Nov 21, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The cost looks even smaller when you compare it to the GDP.
> 
> US Defense Spending (not the Defense Budget) is expected to be ~$1.05 trillion out of an expected US GDP of ~$23 trillion for the year 2022.
> The $80 billion for Ukraine is ~0.35% (note that is only a little over 1/3 of 1%) of the expected US GDP for the year 2022.
> ...


Dare I say that even more importantly, no NATO blood has been lost with the obvious exception of some volunteers who have joined the Ukraine Forces.

No penny pincher can come up with a Cost Benefit Analysis that includes that most important feature.

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## Frog (Nov 21, 2022)

GTX said:


>




The Crotale works best when firing from an elevation but this makes it more conspicious. During the good ole cold war days when everybody was expecting a massive invasion preceded but strong air strikes, the Crotale's life expectancy was evaluated to less than a week.


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## GTX (Nov 21, 2022)

The sun will still rise if Twitter fails, but it could have serious implications for the Ukraine war


Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Twitter has been a critical tool for sharing information, influencing Western support and soliciting aid. So, what will it mean for the war if the social media platform collapses? Mick Ryan writes.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting cost - benefit analysis
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The West is getting great value for dollar here. We get to kick Russia’s ass whilst sitting in our armchairs. And those close to Putin know this, that their leader’s idiocy in Ukraine has given the West a golden opportunity to use their latest weaponry, some of it close to expiry and thus ideally suited for immediate use, to knock Russia into bit player status on the world stage, and to likely forever sever Russia’s energy monopoly in Europe.

And on a discount the West gets to remind China, that no matter the nominal size of your military, of what happens when a territory a united West cares about is threatened. China cannot be at all pleased with the now united front of what was once a shaky alliance. Thanks Vlad, Xi will have said.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> The sun will still rise if Twitter fails, but it could have serious implications for the Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Twitter has been a critical tool for sharing information, influencing Western support and soliciting aid. So, what will it mean for the war if the social media platform collapses? Mick Ryan writes.
> ...


Fear mongers and sensationalistss are claiming twitter won't last just as they said about Facebook when Zuckerberg made some major changes about 10 years ago.

It's not going anywhere.









No, Twitter won't die under Elon Musk


Users expect Twitter won't last long under its new billionaire owner. The stats — and social media history — tell another story.




mashable.com

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## at6 (Nov 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Someone smoking in St Petersburg



And the winner of the Light My Fart contest is.................................................

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## GTX (Nov 21, 2022)

Possible sign of deployment of Russian T-14 Armata tanks in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army


Possible sign of deployment of Russian T-14 Armata tanks in Ukraine




www.armyrecognition.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Fear mongers and sensationalistss are claiming twitter won't las


That's just silly talk. Nothing dies on the internet. Heck, Fidonet that we used to run BBS boards in the 1980s is still active FidoNet

Everyone said Facebook and Twitter and would kill the likes of Myspace, Flickr and Tumblr. But nope, they're all still in biz.

What will eventually happen to Twitter is the audience growth will begin to flatten and then decline. But I expect Twitter to exist into the 2030s and beyond.


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## special ed (Nov 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> And the winner of the Light My Fart contest is.................................................


Concerning lighting farts, at USAFA two class of 60 roommates stuffed themselves with baked beans and just before lights out were observed in the laundry room, one of them propped up butt high having his farts lighted. "Here comes another one" ,etc, etc. A blue flame about 3 inches long could be observed with odor of burned hair. The next morning, both were in the dispensary with 2nd degree burns of the anus. They went on to fly in V.N.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> Possible sign of deployment of Russian T-14 Armata tanks in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army
> 
> 
> Possible sign of deployment of Russian T-14 Armata tanks in Ukraine
> ...


Oh, oh.... I can't wait to see one captured by the AFU!

Though I'd have expected the fleet of gas-turbine powered T-80s would have first been deployed. AIUI, the T-80 has not seen use in Ukraine due to its inefficient and maintenance heavy gas turbine engine. Is the T-14's gas turbine going to be any better?

And now for some Cancon. The Ukrainian refugees building these armoured cars are inspiring.

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## Marcel (Nov 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Fear mongers and sensationalistss are claiming twitter won't last just as they said about Facebook when Zuckerberg made some major changes about 10 years ago.
> 
> It's not going anywhere.
> 
> ...


Off Topic: Actually I really hope it'll die. Twitter is the poison of today's society (not the only one, though).

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Oh, oh.... I can't wait to see one captured by the AFU!
> 
> Though I'd have expected the fleet of gas-turbine powered T-80s would have first been deployed. AIUI, the T-80 has not seen use in Ukraine due to its inefficient and maintenance heavy gas turbine engine. Is the T-14's gas turbine going to be any better?
> 
> And now for some Cancon.




I'm afraid no T-14 will be ever captured. They will break down before reaching the front.









Russia's T-14 Armata tank breaks down before its parade debut


Claims the tank is more than a match for its American and German counterparts could be overblown, analyst says.




www.smh.com.au

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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's just silly talk. Nothing dies on the internet. Heck, Fidonet that we used to run BBS boards in the 1980s is still active FidoNet
> 
> Everyone said Facebook and Twitter and would kill the likes of Myspace, Flickr and Tumblr. But nope, they're all still in biz.
> 
> What will eventually happen to Twitter is the audience growth will begin to flatten and then decline. But I expect Twitter to exist into the 2030s and beyond.



'Fraid I disagree ("What a shock!" I hear you say?). 

The scenario you describe only covers commercial competition. The problem for Twitter is that Musk is actively hollowing it out from the inside. He's laid off, what, half of the staff? And many of the remaining half are quitting because of Musk's heavy-handed "leadership." 

There's an irreducible minimum staffing required to maintain software....particularly code that's as widely used as Twitter: developers to keep software and libraries updated; dev-ops teams to keep automated software deployment tools functioning; test teams to ensure new software builds meet requirements without excessive failures; even marketing bods to keep advertising and other revenue streams coming in. 

Lose too many of these core business-critical staff, and Twitter will fall over....maybe not immediately but certainly within 6-12 months unless Musk can recruit replacements. And, let's face it, given Musk's performance over the past month, who on earth would want to work for him at Twitter? I certainly wouldn't.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> even marketing bods to keep advertising and other revenue streams coming in.


I always wondered how Twitter made any money. I’ve been on Twitter for years and I didn’t know it had ads. IDK if my iPad’s Twitter app just blocks all ads, but I’ve never seen one. I used Adblock for Chrome/YouTube on my pc and again never see ads.

Even if Twitter goes to hell, it will still exist, but in a much reduced, Mastadon like form.


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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2022)

Is it just me or is this another example of Putin not recognizing the law of unintended consequences? Putting an extra 23,000 men--and, worse,conviced criminals--into Prigozhin's private army doesn't seem like a smart move to me. 









Russia has 23,000 fewer prisoners after recruiting drive by Russia’s Wagner mercenary company – Mediazona


The total number of prisoners in Russian correctional institutions in September and October decreased by 23,000 people likely due to the recruitment of prisoners for the war against Ukraine by Russia’s Wagner mercenary company, Russian outlet Mediazona reported on Nov. 18.




news.yahoo.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Is it just me or is this another example of Putin not recognizing the law of unintended consequences? Putting an extra 23,000 men in Prigozhin's private army doesn't seem like a smart move to me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If there’s any personal threat to Putin’s power there’s a good chance it’s Prigozhin. I’d be eliminating him asap.

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## Glider (Nov 21, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I'm afraid no T-14 will be ever captured. They will break down before reaching the front.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When the Chieftain tank first entered service in the British Army. The standard joke was that with is reclined position for the driver, its unsurpassed armour and 120mm cannon it was the perfect tank to go to war in, as it would break down before you got there.

Now how long did it take for us to get it right?

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## Denniss (Nov 21, 2022)

Wagner reminds me a bit of the SA and how it had to be "dissolved".
A brutal dictator does not want anyone with a private army get too much power so sooner or later this person is to get rid of.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Wagner reminds me a bit of the SA and how it had to be "dissolved".
> A brutal dictator does not want anyone with a private army get too much power so sooner or later this person is to get rid of.


Even Himmler, head of the SS betrayed Hitler.



Himmler's Great Betrayal - Churchill Rejected Peace Overtures In 1944

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## buffnut453 (Nov 21, 2022)

Wondering what to buy for Christmas? How about contributing to any charity or not-for-profit organization that's trying to provide Ukrainians with heat, energy, clothing, food, medical supplies or any other critical need this winter.









Millions of lives under threat in Ukraine this winter - WHO


Millions are at risk as winter sets in as many are without power, a WHO official warns.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Wondering what to buy for Christmas? How about contributing to any charity or not-for-profit organization that's trying to provide Ukrainians with heat, energy, clothing, food, medical supplies or any other critical need this winter.


It may not be very Christian, but I prefer to help kill Russians… all the Russians found within Ukraine, until they leave the entirety of Ukrainian territory. 






Weapons to Ukraine - gifts for Mr. Putin and his friends


Buy tanks, grenades and military equipment to support Ukrainian army. Ukrainian embassy will receive money and buy real weapons in cooperation with the Czech Ministry of Defense




www.weaponstoukraine.com





No matter your holiday budget there’s something for everyone.

$1.5 million will get you a tank.









Buy Tank | weaponstoukraine.com


The T-72 tank is a very popular and powerful machine, in the M1 version repeatedly upgraded. It has a quality 125mm cannon, a powerful engine that gives it high mobility and a high degree of armor protection.




www.weaponstoukraine.com





Or $51 for a single hand grenade.









Buy Hand grenade | weaponstoukraine.com


The F-1 hand grenade has been in production for many decades. It has proven itself in a number of conflicts as an offensive and defensive weapon. For this amount, you will buy a Ukrainian F-1 grenade with everything that it needs.




www.weaponstoukraine.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 21, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Wagner reminds me a bit of the SA and how it had to be "dissolved".
> A brutal dictator does not want anyone with a private army get too much power so sooner or later this person is to get rid of.


The Schutzestaffel was Hitler's private army.
The Sturmabteilung, a paramilitary arm of the Nazi party, lost it's power and influence after the night of long knives in 1934 and this was because Hitler saw them becoming too powerful.

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## GTX (Nov 22, 2022)

How two Australian soldiers became unwitting poster boys for Russia's mercenaries


On a spring day in 2013, two Australian soldiers had their photograph taken in Afghanistan. Now the photo has resurfaced in a scheme to recruit mercenaries for Russia's invasion of Ukraine — all without the soldiers' knowledge.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 22, 2022)

Ukraine's security service raids Kyiv monastery, citing Russian sabotage


Ukraine's security service and police raid a 1,000-year-old Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv as part of operations to counter suspected "subversive activities by Russian special services".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 22, 2022)

Russian forces were suffering from 'electronic fratricide' within days of attacking Ukraine, a new report says


Early in the war, Russia's military tried to jam Ukrainian radars and communications and end up jamming its own troops as well.




www.businessinsider.com

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## GTX (Nov 22, 2022)

Weapons shortages spark tough choices for Ukraine’s allies


Arms shortages among Ukraine’s allies are forcing difficult conversations about how to balance support concerns Russia may target them next.




www.defensenews.com

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## at6 (Nov 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That's just silly talk. Nothing dies on the internet. Heck, Fidonet that we used to run BBS boards in the 1980s is still active FidoNet
> 
> Everyone said Facebook and Twitter and would kill the likes of Myspace, Flickr and Tumblr. But nope, they're all still in biz.
> 
> What will eventually happen to Twitter is the audience growth will begin to flatten and then decline. But I expect Twitter to exist into the 2030s and beyond.


Just look at Roadking's thread. It still keeps coming back and that's just on this forum.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Weapons shortages spark tough choices for Ukraine’s allies
> 
> 
> Arms shortages among Ukraine’s allies are forcing difficult conversations about how to balance support concerns Russia may target them next.
> ...


I really don't understand that line of reasoning. Just who were those weapons intended to fight against? Would they have used those weapons as effectively as the AFU? Could those nations have fended off Russia by themselves, which seems to be what their argument is. Don't they realize that these very weapons are being used to stop and reduce the Russian threat? And the battle is not being fought on their own soil?

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## GrauGeist (Nov 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I really don't understand that line of reasoning. Just who were those weapons intended to fight against? Would they have used those weapons as effectively as the AFU? Could those nations have fended off Russia by themselves, which seems to be what their argument is. Don't they realize that these very weapons are being used to stop and reduce the Russian threat? And the battle is not being fought on their own soil?


Aside from poor proof-reading, the article is mostly expressing concerns by a few people.

If Russia were to attack a NATO country, that country has the benefit of other nations coming to it's aid, which in turn combines arms of that/those nations.

I'd also think that nations closer to Russia are more likely to be attacked than the Netherlands or Canada.
Matter of fact, the last war fought on Canadian soil, was against the Cree nation over 130 years ago.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Aside from poor proof-reading, the article is mostly expressing concerns by a few people.
> 
> If Russia were to attack a NATO country, that country has the benefit of other nations coming to it's aid, which in turn combines arms of that/those nations.
> 
> ...


Russia can‘t roll over Ukraine. How can anyone in NATO think Russia can take even Lithuania on?

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## GrauGeist (Nov 22, 2022)

If the mighty Russian military has to resort to drones as a means to fight a war, I doubt it could even successfully beat Liechtenstein.

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## manta22 (Nov 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the mighty Russian military has to resort to drones as a means to fight a war, I doubt it could even successfully beat Liechtenstein.


Uh-oh... remember the movie "The Mouse That Roared"?

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> For the last 5 years or so the Russians have taken the lead in aiding Iran to accomplish this goal.


Russia took control of the Nuclear [Weapon] Program, Officially in 1996, unofficially, 1989.

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is a naval and air blockade of Iran being considered?


Naval blockade would be impossible for many reasons! No idea about the meaning of "Aerial Blockade".


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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The only thing Iran has gotten so far, is ten of their own killed last week.


Unconfirmed reports tell 18 K [IA] and 8 W [IA].

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Have sanctions ever worked, maybe South Africa? While screwing up the availability of some arms, sanctions otherwise don’t seem to have any impact on Russia’s decisions. The best path with Iran is to seize upon the current uprising to pursue regime change. That might end up with someone worse, but the ensuing chaos would at least temporarily disrupt Iran’s foreign endeavours.



Sanctions have no impact on regime, but on people!!! the only language they understand is "Violence". I personally support any form of of it, against terrorists, their assets and agents, and families. An explosion in one of their spy nests [embassies], would send them a way more clear message than useless shit talks.



buffnut453 said:


> The US, Britain and France seem to be lining up to levy more sanctions on Tehran due to the sale of drones to Russia. It remains to be seen how deeply/broadly any new sanctions impact the Iranian economy.



the impact was, is and will be nothing to regime! you just make sanction against 1 person or company, but 1000s other rise up! blowing their money laundry locations or assassination of known terrorists, is way more effective.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the mighty Russian military has to resort to drones as a means to fight a war, I doubt it could even successfully beat Liechtenstein.



I don't think of drones as a "resort", but rather as a logical tool to minimize the life-hazard of fighting a war. In that, the Russians are smart to use drones -- and I think it's safe to say that their successful use of drones is the only bright spot in their otherwise dismal performance in invading Ukraine.

We Americans are moving big time into drone usage as well, including investigating using manned F-35s as AI control ships for a small fleet of UAVs. 

Implying that drones are the desperate act of a weak nation is not, therefore, really accurate, in my opinion. Drones will have a secure place in war-fighting in the future.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 23, 2022)

Russian way for rising morale.
I wonder how the hell they have not turned on their officers yet.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Naval blockade would be impossible for many reasons! No idea about the meaning of "Aerial Blockade".



Naval blockade outside the Straits of Hormuz would be possible, but there's no way we can prevent trade between Russia and Iran over the Caspian or even through Azerbaijan and the corridor between the Caspian and Black seas, nor can we prevent trade over the land borders that Iran has.

But a distant blockade conducted in the Arabian Sea could be done, for whatever point that might -- or might not -- have.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Sanctions have no impact on regime, but on people!!! the only language they understand is "Violence". I personally support any form of of it, against terrorists, their assets and agents, and families. An explosion in one of their spy nests [embassies], would send them a way more clear message than useless shit talks.
> 
> 
> 
> the impact was, is and will be nothing to regime! you just make sanction against 1 person or company, but 1000s other rise up! blowing their money laundry locations or assassination of known terrorists, is way more effective.



The mullahs are much more concerned about their own power than they are concerned about the welfare of the people.

I hope that one day Iranians will get a government that actually gives a shit about them.

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Naval blockade outside the Straits of Hormuz would be possible, but there's no way we can prevent trade between Russia and Iran over the Caspian or even through Azerbaijan and the corridor between the Caspian and Black seas, nor can we prevent trade over the land borders that Iran has.
> 
> But a distant blockade conducted in the Arabian Sea could be done, for whatever point that might -- or might not -- have.


Thats exactly what the regime wants!!! an excuse to start a war!!! targeting ships with missiles is possible and an optional approach by IRGC!!! and im pretty sure, no one would ever give them what they want. besides that, any ship can go to pakistan or indian ports and being sent towards iran, by roads.

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The mullahs are much more concerned about their own power than they are concerned about the welfare of the people.
> 
> I hope that one day Iranians will get a government that actually gives a shit about them.


and thats one of reasons i say naval blockade is both ineffective and impossible.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Thats exactly what the regime wants!!! an excuse to start a war!!! targeting ships with missiles is possible and an optional approach by IRGC!!! and im pretty sure, no one would ever give them what they want. besides that, any ship can go to pakistan or indian ports and being sent towards iran, by roads.



Right. Understand that I'm not arguing for any naval blockade; as I've implied, I am sure it would be pointless by being easily avoided. I was just saying that a naval blockade could be done, useless as it would be given the landward borders and political geography involved.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

Also --

_
A bipartisan group of senators is pressing the Biden administration to rethink its stance of not giving Ukraine advanced drones to aid in pushing Russian forces out of the country.

In a Nov. 22 letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, 16 senators led by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), ask the administration to give "careful reconsideration" to Ukraine's request for MQ-1C Gray Eagle unmanned aerial systems (UAS). 

"The MQ-1C, along with already provided long-range fires capabilities, provides Ukraine additional lethality needed to eject Russian forces and regain occupied territory," the lawmakers write. 

The signatories include Ernst, outgoing Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member James Inhofe (R-Okla.), and Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). 

The Wall Street Journal first reported on the letter. 

Ukraine has made significant battlefield advances in the last few months against Russia, pushing Kremlin forces from the strategic areas of Kharkiv and Kherson. 

But Moscow has countered with an unrelenting barrage of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine since October, using Iranian-provided kamikaze drones to target major cities and infrastructure. 

The lawmakers argue that Kyiv needs its own advanced drones to counter Russia's. 

[...]

But the Pentagon so far has declined Ukraine's request for the drones over reported concerns that the drone's advanced and secretive technology might fall into enemy hands. 

Asked on Tuesday if giving the drones to Ukraine was still under consideration, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters that "nothing has been decided." _



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3748250-senators-urge-biden-administration-to-give-ukraine-advanced-drones/

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right. Understand that I'm not arguing for any naval blockade; as I've implied, I am sure it would be pointless by being easily avoided. I was just saying that a naval blockade could be done, useless as it would be given the landward borders and political geography involved.


No arguements, at all! just trying to clarify the situation for better understanding what is going on!!!

Here is another example:

Kurdish Separatist Militia groups are at war with central regimes, for over 60 years! regime recently attacked multiple times to their headquarters, as well as cities and towns, in Iraqi Kurdish Region! to start a war and uses that, supress the people, and show it as a legal action! The Kurds said They wont reaction, was silence and let journalists do their work.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 23, 2022)



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## GTX (Nov 23, 2022)

Britain sending helicopters to Ukraine for first time - Ben Wallace


Three former Sea King helicopters will be provided and the first has already arrived, the BBC understands.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't think of drones as a "resort", but rather as a logical tool to minimize the life-hazard of fighting a war. In that, the Russians are smart to use drones -- and I think it's safe to say that their successful use of drones is the only bright spot in their otherwise dismal performance in invading Ukraine.
> 
> We Americans are moving big time into drone usage as well, including investigating using manned F-35s as AI control ships for a small fleet of UAVs.
> 
> Implying that drones are the desperate act of a weak nation is not, therefore, really accurate, in my opinion. Drones will have a secure place in war-fighting in the future.


Drones are an emerging weapon platform, there is no question.
However, no matter how many drones a military has, if they cannot take and hold ground with an army, then attacking with drones is like Hitler hurling V-1 and V-2 weapons at England while losing ground and enormous amounts of men and material in the process.

This exactly what Russia is doing - they are resorting to "V weapons" while their Army is getting it's ass kicked.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 23, 2022)

Only a political gesture, but anyway ....









European Parliament declares Russia a state sponsor of terrorism


The European Parliament on Wednesday designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, arguing that its military strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets such as energy infrastructure, hospitals, schools and shelters violated international law.




www.reuters.com

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## ARTESH (Nov 23, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Only a political gesture, but anyway ....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


same thing is happenin, in my country, right now! it would be good for them to do an action! or they'll pay in blood!


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## MiTasol (Nov 23, 2022)

I think it is time for the Ukrainians to send some of their ladies to the outskirts of Moscow where they can encourage several groups of Russian smokers to simultaneously light cigarettes next to power pylons and gas pipelines around sundown.

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## Snautzer01 (Nov 23, 2022)

Russian smokers do not need pesky ukranian women to light up. The evidence can be seen when the sun sets. Just look for smoke colums.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Britain sending helicopters to Ukraine for first time - Ben Wallace
> 
> 
> Three former Sea King helicopters will be provided and the first has already arrived, the BBC understands.
> ...


With the right kit ex-FAA Sea Kings can pack a punch.

















I assume they’ll be refitted to something closer to Westland Commando spec for army use, rather than ASW ops.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Drones are an emerging weapon platform, there is no question.
> However, no matter how many drones a military has, if they cannot take and hold ground with an army, then attacking with drones is like Hitler hurling V-1 and V-2 weapons at England while losing ground and enormous amounts of men and material in the process.
> 
> This exactly what Russia is doing - they are resorting to "V weapons" while their Army is getting it's ass kicked.



Of course. Talking with my son last night about the Armata "deployment", I pointed out that the reliance on wonder-weapons is indicative of desperation. I just don't regard drones as wonder weapons in this era.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, no matter how many drones a military has, if they cannot take and hold ground with an army, then attacking with drones is like Hitler hurling V-1 and V-2 weapons at England while losing ground and enormous amounts of men and material in the process.



Yeah, no one is saying that drones are a war-winner. Indeed, I've already mentioned how _wunderwaffen_ are probably more indicative of desperation on the part of Russians.

But drones are without a doubt a force-multiplier that any military with a little sense and a little money can leverage to make asymmetric warfare even more effective. And let's face it ... the Russians are behind the eight-ball at this point, they have to use every.single.advantage they can find.

I doubt anyone here is under any illusions about either manned or unmanned aircraft holding ground.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> But drones are without a doubt a force-multiplier that any military with a little sense and a little money can leverage to make asymmetric warfare even more effective.


Ukrainian drones like the Bayraktar seem more capable, definitely a force multiplier. But the Russian drones seem to be mostly dumb, gps guided flying bombs rather than direct control offensive weapons, essentially modern day V1 rockets sent irreversibly to a set coordinates.

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## DBII (Nov 23, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> So it has begun, the reassembly of the USSR, or maybe even the old Russian Empire.
> Hey Fulda, how's your gap?


My second home, 84 - 87.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 23, 2022)

An estimated 50% of Ukraine’s power grid has now been destroyed. 

Go to 3:23. Ukraine is at risk of losing its gains. What is NATO willing to do?



My vote? First, dramatically and asap this month increase through whatever means Ukraine’s air defence. Next, give Ukraine every tool they need to defend Bahkmut and to cross the Dnieper to commence an invasion of Crimea before Christmas.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 23, 2022)

A few days old, but still a good assessment of the current situation.









Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13


This report discusses the likely evolution of the war following Ukraine’s operational success in regaining control of western Kherson Obl...




www.criticalthreats.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukrainian drones like the Bayraktar seem more capable, definitely a force multiplier. But the Russian drones seem to be mostly dumb, gps guided flying bombs rather than direct control offensive weapons, essentially modern day V1 rockets sent irreversibly to a set coordinates.


 
That's not my understanding of how the Russians are using the Iranian drones, which seem able to loiter, and have much more accuracy than any V-2 I've read of. I'm sure some shivering Ukrainians could outline this point far better than I am able to do.

_
In recent weeks these Iranian drones have been used to target critical energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

The Iranian drones are known as a "loitering munition" because they are capable of circling for some time in an area identified as a potential target and only striking once an enemy asset is identified.

They are small, portable and can be easily launched, but their main advantage is that they are hard to detect and can be fired from a distance._









Russia to build attack drones for Ukraine war with the help of Iran, intelligence assessment says | CNN Politics


Iran and Russia have reached an agreement to begin the production of attack drones in Russia, according to a new intelligence assessment from a country that closely monitors Iran's weapons program.




www.cnn.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 23, 2022)

Is there anything to the rumor that if Russia gets Iranian drones, Ukraine gets Israeli drones?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 23, 2022)

I’d like to see Japan and the US, whose firms produce much of the global production of portable generators, albeit likely with Chinese inputs, ship five thousand units to Ukraine before end of November.






Top Portable Generator Companies, Manufacturers and Brands


By the IMARC Group, the top portable manufacturing companies are Briggs & Stratton, LLC, Cummins, Honda Motor, Eaton Corporation PLC, and Generac Power Systems.




www.imarcgroup.com

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## hawkeye2an (Nov 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I’d like to see Japan and the US, whose firms produce much of the global production of portable generators, albeit likely with Chinese inputs, ship five thousand units to Ukraine before end of November.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## ThomasP (Nov 24, 2022)

a few bits of info.

Re the MQ-1 drone

This type of drone is considered to be vulnerable to modern air defense systems. While it can easily fly high above the reach of MANPADS and similar vehicle launched SAMS, if it does so it becomes vulnerable to the more sophisticated heavy SAMs such as the S-400 as well as GCI by RF intercepters. At 5000 ft and higher over the Kherson area the SAM batteries in Crimea can see and have a good chance of shooting down the MQ-1 drones. The same circumstances exist in the Eastern Ukraine theater.

I suspect that we are not planning on sending/deploying them (if there is need to) until the end game - when even if they are lost in numbers their effect will still be worth the possible losses. The potential effect of the various EW system payloads would be catastrophic to RF communications and possibly to any of the less than most sophisticated radars. Use of the MQ-1 drones for ground attack of any type would be like using Mjölnir to hit eggs while risking it being destroyed in the process.


re portable generator sets

There are "large numbers" of generator sets and power supplies of various types using various fuel types already in the pipeline. Small numbers have already arrived in theater though I do not know how many are in place/service. There is currently a large aircraft sitting at an airfield 'somewhere in the midwest' being loaded full of Cummins/Onan generators sets. (The MN National Guard has really taken the attack on Ukraine personally.)


re the overall situation in the South of Ukraine

US/NATO COMINT and HUMINT is reporting that the Russian high command are trying to figure out if/how they can hold Crimea - the current expectation within the high command is that they will not be able to do so unless there is a major setback for the Ukraine forces. It is not thought that said setback can occur in the South.


re the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge

The Russian FSB investigation into the Kerch Strait Bridge attack has revealed that the explosion was the result of a truck bomb, with the explosive/bomb hidden under rolls and pallets of industrial plastic sheet. (The ephemeral objects seen in the video footage that are being blown by the wind across the bridge after the explosion are sections of plastic sheet, some on fire.) Although the Russian propaganda has been saying that the truck bomb attack was orchestrated by the Ukrainians, US/NATO COMINT and HUMINT are reporting that in reality the FSB does not have any clue who was responsible. All they know for sure is that the owner and driver were both Russian citizens - the owner was 25 yo Samir Yusubov and the driver was the owner's uncle 52 yo Makhir Yusubov. The FSB has no evidence the the owner was involved. The owner's uncle has not been seen since the blast.

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## WARSPITER (Nov 24, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Cummins/Onan generator


From what I have seen over time these are very good generators.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 24, 2022)

As for fuel to run generators, I sense that Ukraine is not short on fuel. The cities may be dark, but we see lots of cars driving around, and the AFU mechanized and artillery units seem to be constantly on the move as they avoid counter battery fire.

It would be a real kick to Putin if China, likely a world leader in generator production sent five thousand units to Ukraine as humanitarian aid. 

When this war is over I expect China will be ready to swoop in to lead the rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure, electricity and transport systems. That will be a problem for the West who've been funding Ukraine's surivival.









Ukraine’s China Problem, and How To Solve It


In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy extolled his country’s potential to become "a major hub for information technology." Certainly, all civilized people are rooting for Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion and have its war-shattered economy roar back...




www.heritage.org

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## GTX (Nov 24, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 24, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> When this war is over I expect China will be ready to swoop in to lead the rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure, electricity and transport systems. That will be a problem for the West who've been funding Ukraine's surivival.



I'm not sure that after this experience with one despotic country that Ukraine would be willing to mortgage much in relying upon the Chinese despots. China will certainly try to elbow in on the money, but I think Ukrainians will be suspicious of such efforts -- and rightly so. The Belt-and-Road initiatives have already shown how China is using financial weaponry to effect ... and the Ukrainians are not dumb.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 24, 2022)

Ukraine will be strengthening its ties to Europe and North America.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 24, 2022)

Apologies to our friends Down Under. Perhaps I should have said Ukraine will strengthen its ties with NATO/AUKUS nations.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 24, 2022)

European nations lending a hand in rebuilding Ukraine will also benefit in respect to increased material sales as well as jobs.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> European nations lending a hand in rebuilding Ukraine will also benefit in respect to increased material sales as well as jobs.



I was just reading an article about Czech and Polish industry ramping up production in support of Ukrainian needs that are, yes, providing jobs and income to those countries even as they provide wherewithal to UAF in defeating the Russians. They're building mainly ammo, but also chassis.

One more example of Putin forgetting that the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks ass.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 24, 2022)

After the dust settles, Ukraine will need buildings, roads, bridges, water/sewer line, power line, automobiles, trucks, emergency vehicles and more.

Many of these items can be bought in the EU - the steel for new buildings, bridges and transmission lines for example, could be from India, Europe, U.S. or perhaps China.

Putin not only effed himself, but has created a potential boost to the EU's economy.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 24, 2022)

Ukraine war: The race to rebuild infrastructure in Kherson


Engineers are starting to rebuild infrastructure destroyed during Russia's occupation of Kherson.



www.bbc.co.uk

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 24, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: The race to rebuild infrastructure in Kherson
> 
> 
> Engineers are starting to rebuild infrastructure destroyed during Russia's occupation of Kherson.
> ...


It’s amazing that Ukraine has the manpower to field nearly a million combat soldiers while still having available skilled personnel for repairing its electrical system and other infrastructure. I wonder if several hundred or thousand plus Poles and other European linesmen have traveled to Ukraine to help.

I expect the Russians will now hit these repaired areas.


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## at6 (Nov 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If the mighty Russian military has to resort to drones as a means to fight a war, I doubt it could even successfully beat Liechtenstein.


It could because that poor country is so small that one drone would flatten all of it.

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## MiTasol (Nov 24, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> European nations lending a hand in rebuilding Ukraine will also benefit in respect to increased material sales as well as jobs.



Ukraine's President should already be talking loud and clear that all government contracts for reconstruction will ONLY go to companies who are owned in those countries that are already providing Ukraine significant support, based on the countries GDP, and that all materials must come from supporter countries.

That will keep China and other leeches out, and maybe will tip the scales for countries like India who have the capacity to provide much of what will be needed.

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## Wildcat (Nov 24, 2022)

On the topic of rebuilding Ukraine.
'Sending a message to the world': Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest pledges $744 million towards rebuilding Ukraine

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> After the dust settles, Ukraine will need buildings, roads, bridges, water/sewer line, power line, automobiles, trucks, emergency vehicles and more.
> 
> Many of these items can be bought in the EU - the steel for new buildings, bridges and transmission lines for example, could be from India, Europe, U.S. or perhaps China.
> 
> Putin not only effed himself, but has created a potential boost to the EU's economy.



Russia has given plenty of scrap-metal to be resmelted. There will be rebar in Ukraine a hundred years from now that started life as a T-72.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 25, 2022)

at6 said:


> It could because that poor country is so small that one drone would flatten all of it.


I wouldn't use the word "poor" when speaking of Liechtenstein, considering its the country with highest gdp per capita in the world. Oh, and has also won more Olympic medals per capita than any other country --all of them in Alpine skiing. Since the war began, Liechtenstein has taken in 255 Ukrainian refugees. That may not sound like much, but it's the proportional equivalent of the United States accepting 2.2 million refugees. Guess you can't beat Liechtenstein in anything per capita 

Interestingly, in the more than 300 years of existence, Liechtenstein had no wars, no border changes, and no occupation (and that includes two world wars), despite having no armed forces for the last 150 years.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I wouldn't use the word "poor" when speaking of Liechtenstein, considering its the countrynn with highest gdp per capita in the world. Oh, and has also won more Olympic medals per capita than any other country --all of them in Alpine skiing. Since the war began, Liechtenstein has taken in 255 Ukrainian refugees. That may not sound like much, but it's the proportional equivalent of the United States accepting 2.2 million refugees. Guess you can't beat Liechtenstein in anything per capita
> 
> Interestingly, in the more than 300 years of existence, Liechtenstein had no wars, no border changes, and no occupation (and that includes two world wars), despite having no armed forces for the last 150 years.



They have the luxury of being surrounded by countries that aren't interested in gobbling them up.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They have the luxury of being surrounded by countries that aren't interested in gobbling them up.


Well, in WWI they where surrounded by Austro-Hungarian empire and in WWII they were surrounded by Germany and yet, no occupation. They must be good at diplomacy. Especially in diplomacy per capita

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 25, 2022)

Interesting observations about Russians barely moving when attacked.
Winter is coming !!!

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## buffnut453 (Nov 25, 2022)

In another echo of Nazi Germany, now there's the Putler Youth movement:









How Putin is preparing children to ‘die for the motherland’ | Ian Garner


Putin is turbocharging his indoctrination of young people, says historian Ian Garner




www.theguardian.com

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## ARTESH (Nov 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> In another echo of Nazi Germany, now there's the Putler Youth movement:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That`s the end of the line!!!

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 25, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Ukraine's President should already be talking loud and clear that all government contracts for reconstruction will ONLY go to companies who are owned in those countries that are already providing Ukraine significant support, based on the countries GDP, and that all materials must come from supporter countries.
> 
> That will keep China and other leeches out, and maybe will tip the scales for countries like India who have the capacity to provide much of what will be needed.


And the West should pass legislation to seize and sell all Russian assets held in their banks, investment houses, real estate and corporations. All proceeds go firstly, toward helping Ukraine and if anything's left, to compensating Western taxpayers for their expense arming Ukraine. Focus on the former of course.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 25, 2022)

Jeez, a single Su-34 makes the news, lol.









New Sukhoi Su-34 delivered to Russian Air Force after losses during invasion of Ukraine - Air Data News


At least 17 all-weather attack aircraft have reportedly been lost since February, when the conflict began




www.airdatanews.com





Where the heck is the Russian air force in this war? The Russian soldiers must feel like the Poms at Dunkirk demoaning where is the RAF?









Don’t write off the Russian air force


The Russian air force’s failure to establish air superiority over Ukraine – and the consequent inability of its fighter and bomber aircraft to meaningfully affect the course of the war – has been one of the defining features of the invasion so far. It has even become almost a given in policy...




www.spectator.co.uk

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Well, in WWI they where surrounded by Austro-Hungarian empire and in WWII they were surrounded by Germany and yet, no occupation. They must be good at diplomacy. Especially in diplomacy per capita




All that speechifying didn't seem to save them much hassle:



> The German occupation of Luxembourg in World War II began in May 1940 after the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg was invaded by Nazi Germany.[1] Although Luxembourg was officially neutral, it was situated at a strategic point at the end of the French Maginot Line. On 10 May 1940, the German _Wehrmacht_ invaded Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands. Luxembourg was initially placed under a military administration, but later became a civilly administrated territory and finally was annexed directly into Germany. The Germans believed Luxembourg to be a Germanic state, and attempted to suppress what they perceived as alien French language and cultural influences. Although some Luxembourgers joined the resistance or collaborated with the Germans, both constituted a minority of the population.








German occupation of Luxembourg during World War II - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## ThomasP (Nov 25, 2022)

re the Twitter video of the attack on the RF troops in the foxhole



I looks to me as though this drop is part of a continuing attack. There are 2 RF soldiers outside of the foxhole, 1 at the top of the following screen capture and 1 at the bottom. Neither of them are moving, so either wounded, dead, playing dead, or not moving in hopes of not being targeted. Also note the other blast marks surrounding the foxhole, indicative of small explosive devices like grenade or small mortar rounds.

I do not understand why they are not shooting at the drone. Are they out of ammo? Already tried it and gave up? Maybe they are also under direct fire by AFU?


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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> All that speechifying didn't seem to save them much hassle:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We where talking about Liechtenstein, not Luxembourg

Liechtenstein army was abolished for financial reasons soon after the Austro-Prussian War of 1866. An army is only permitted in times of war, but that situation has never occurred.

On the other hand Luxembourg has armed forces and is actually a NATO member. They even participated in the Korean war.

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## ARTESH (Nov 25, 2022)

Unconfirmed reports leaked out about "Iranian" causalities in Ukraine!

I do not accept nor deny it, at all! IMO, just one theory, of many!

here it goes:

Iran sent a troop, around 250 men strong, to support and operate drones and other missions [no talk about what "other missions" are]. after russians fled from the area [not mentioned which area], 26 of them were captured bu Ukrainian troops, and were held in a building, with several Russian prisoners. the Russians targeted the building with 3 missiles, to prevent Ukrainians [and Iranians, as well] to use them for prisoners exchange.

Extra note:

Iran regime, had illegally captured tons of foreign tourists and expats during recent events. official numbers are around 50 people.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> We where talking about Liechtenstein, not Luxembourg



Oh, I get those little European postage stamps mixed up, sorry.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Oh, I get those little European postage stamps mixed up, sorry.



Rather like Vermont, Rhode Island, New Hampshire etc? They're all the same "over there," right?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Rather like Vermont, Rhode Island, New Hampshire etc? They're all the same "over there," right?



Mazactly! The Balkans messes with my head, too -- I get Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria mixed up whenever I think about any of them. I have enough trouble sorting my left foot from my right!

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## buffnut453 (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Mazactly! The Balkans messes with my head, too -- I get Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria mixed up whenever I think about any of them. I have enough trouble sorting my left foot from my right!



We won't even mention the "Stans" then, huh?

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## ARTESH (Nov 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> We won't even mention the "Stans" then, huh?


Goddammit! i was gonna to say this!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> We won't even mention the "Stans" then, huh?



You mean Pakistan, Mongolistan, and Kentuckistan? No, I'm solid on that stuff.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 25, 2022)

The Balkans are sort of easy to figure out - Bulgaria and Romania are on the Black Sea and are kind of "land's end" for Europe.

It's the "stans" I have trouble with. Aside from Afghanistan and Pakistan, I have zero clues about what all and where all the others are (aside from being scattered from hell to breakfast all over central Asia).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Balkans are sort of easy to figure out - Bulgaria and Romania are on the Black Sea and are kind of "land's end" for Europe.



But who's on first?!

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Mazactly! The Balkans messes with my head, too -- I get Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria mixed up whenever I think about any of them. I have enough trouble sorting my left foot from my right!


Whenever someone mentions Hungary, I say "Sure am," and go make a sandwich.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Whenever someone mentions Hungary, I say "Sure am," and go make a sandwich.



I think the same thing when someone talks about visiting Turkey.

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## GTX (Nov 25, 2022)

It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia


The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible. It’s producing wins at almost every level.




cepa.org

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## GTX (Nov 25, 2022)

Activists embarrassed Russian embassy staff in Australia. Now the Kremlin is targeting them


The Russian-speaking activist group Svoboda Alliance spotlighted the intelligence connections of Russian embassy staff and mocked their practices in protest against the war in Ukraine. Now it's been listed by Russia as an "undesirable" or "extremist" group.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 25, 2022)

Ukrainians suffer in cold, darkness as Zelenskyy implores UN Security Council to punish Russia


The Ukrainian president says his country's energy infrastructure has been targeted in a missile barrage that has caused nationwide power outages and plunged cities into freezing darkness.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 25, 2022)

Kyiv residents holding out as repair teams work to restore power and water after heavy Russian strikes


About 70 per cent of Kyiv remains without power and residents are crowding into cafés for power and warmth, while Kherson comes under its heaviest attack since Ukrainian forces retook it.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Activists embarrassed Russian embassy staff in Australia. Now the Kremlin is targeting them
> 
> 
> The Russian-speaking activist group Svoboda Alliance spotlighted the intelligence connections of Russian embassy staff and mocked their practices in protest against the war in Ukraine. Now it's been listed by Russia as an "undesirable" or "extremist" group.
> ...



Has anyone told him about why fighting some Aussies ain't really a good idea?

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## ARTESH (Nov 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The Balkans are sort of easy to figure out - Bulgaria and Romania are on the Black Sea and are kind of "land's end" for Europe.
> 
> It's the "stans" I have trouble with. Aside from Afghanistan and Pakistan, I have zero clues about what all and where all the others are (aside from being scattered from hell to breakfast all over central Asia).


Half of Eastern Europe is "Stan" for us!!!

Central Asian "Stan" countries are historically referred to as "Turkestan". that is modern day area of Eastern side of Caspian sea all way to inner Mongolia, in western China, and from north of India to South of Russia.

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## ARTESH (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think the same thing when someone talks about visiting Turkey.


Thanks to Frenchmen that have chosen "turquoise" to be that country`s name!

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## buffnut453 (Nov 25, 2022)

Ukraine war: Putin tells Russian soldiers' mothers he shares their pain
 

Given the scale of destruction from Russia's invasion, his words are certain to infuriate Ukrainians.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 25, 2022)

Has a certain Nosferatu charm.

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## Frog (Nov 25, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Thanks to Frenchmen that have chosen "turquoise" to be that country`s name!



Sorry boy, it's TURQUIE in french...

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## GrauGeist (Nov 25, 2022)

I understood the word "Turquoise" came from the word "Turquois", which means "Turkish".

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## Glider (Nov 25, 2022)

An interesting piece on the Russian Artillery 



Russia’s High-Tech Artillery System Was Supposed To Win The War In Ukraine. But Troops Didn’t Know How To Use It.

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## Frog (Nov 25, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I understood the word "Turquoise" came from the word "Turquois", which means "Turkish".


That was in old provencial French, but it is '' Turc '' in common french.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 25, 2022)

Going back to the "Stans" and other nearby former Soviet Republics:









Putin’s grip on regional allies loosens again after Armenia snub


Damaging optics of ‘family’ photo at CSTO summit highlights fragility of Russia’s influence in wake of war in Ukraine




www.theguardian.com

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## WARSPITER (Nov 25, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> But who's on first?!


Stan.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 25, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Going back to the "Stans" and other nearby former Soviet Republics:


We are seeing the beginning of the collapse of the Russian federation. Moscow doesn’t have the money or talent to keep this mockery of a country together. It’s going to break apart like the Austro-Hungarian Empire.









The collapse of the Russian Empire - Vivid Maps


Imaginary maps of the collapse of the Russian Empire.




vividmaps.com





Meanwhile today…..

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## ARTESH (Nov 26, 2022)

Frog said:


> Sorry boy, it's TURQUIE in french...


Thank you, for correction.


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## at6 (Nov 26, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I wouldn't use the word "poor" when speaking of Liechtenstein, considering its the country with highest gdp per capita in the world. Oh, and has also won more Olympic medals per capita than any other country --all of them in Alpine skiing. Since the war began, Liechtenstein has taken in 255 Ukrainian refugees. That may not sound like much, but it's the proportional equivalent of the United States accepting 2.2 million refugees. Guess you can't beat Liechtenstein in anything per capita
> 
> Interestingly, in the more than 300 years of existence, Liechtenstein had no wars, no border changes, and no occupation (and that includes two world wars), despite having no armed forces for the last 150 years.


I wasn't speaking about their economy. The "poor" thing is barely larger than a postage stamp. Lick, stick, and send them all over Europe.


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## at6 (Nov 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: Putin tells Russian soldiers' mothers he shares their pain
> 
> 
> Given the scale of destruction from Russia's invasion, his words are certain to infuriate Ukrainians.
> ...


Isn't that what Bill Clinton said as he squeezed Lewinsky's bottom?


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Watch: Ukrainian Troops Blast Russian HQ With British-Made M777 Howitzers
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops blitzed a Russian base and reportedly destroyed their headquarters, a warehouse and armored vehicles, as can be seen in footage released by the Ukrainian military.
> ...


Looks like the M777 are wearing out faster than anticipated.

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.

Paywall free version: archive.ph

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 26, 2022)

_An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed the extent of the financial strains that the war in Ukraine has imposed on Russia’s annual budget. Forbes found that Russia has spent $82 billion dollars on the first nine months of the war in Ukraine, amounting to one quarter of its entire 2021 annual budget of $340 billion.[15] The investigation emphasized the impact that mobilization had on military-related expenditures since October and observed that providing for the 300,000 mobilized cost an additional $1.8 billion per month in addition to the increased costs of providing ammunition, equipment, and salaries to mobilized recruits, which in total amounted to a $2.7 billion increase following mobilization. ISW has previously reported on the detrimental effects of mobilization and the Kremlin’s overall war effort on the Russian federal budget.[16] In addition to the massive impact the first nine months of the war have had on the federal budget, ISW has also observed that local Russian administrations on the regional level have disproportionately borne the brunt of mobilization in a way that will continue to have reverberating social and financial impacts into 2023.[17] _






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _ISW has also observed that local Russian administrations on the regional level have disproportionately borne the brunt of mobilization in a way that will continue to have reverberating social and financial impacts into 2023.[17] _
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This and the flight of many of Russia’s young men; the upcoming entrepreneurs, innovators, scientists, engineers, inventors, doctors, teachers and leaders essential to any country’s future, will negatively impact Russia for generations.

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## wlewisiii (Nov 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like the M777 are wearing out faster than anticipated.
> 
> Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.
> 
> Paywall free version: archive.ph


Not really a surprise. The US/NATO expectation for artillery was predicated on a short and glorious war that either side would win in days (or end the world in Adventure Time's "Mushroom War"). 

Now the logisticians are beginning to realize that their expected artillery usage in a major European war might have been a little too optimistic.

The Russians, btw, have been facing the worn out barrel issue for some time.

During WW2 when the US Army faced worn out barrels, the solution was just to replace the cannon with another and ship the worn out one to a depot for rebuilding.

The WW2 German solution was generally to keep firing it. Because they often didn't have any spare cannon, spare cannon barrels, any way to ship it back to a depot, or any depot to ship it to. Needless to say, randomly falling artillery shells did not help German morale.

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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: Putin tells Russian soldiers' mothers he shares their pain
> 
> 
> Given the scale of destruction from Russia's invasion, his words are certain to infuriate Ukrainians.
> ...


More of the same:









'We share your pain': Putin meets with mothers of soldiers killed in Ukraine


President Vladimir Putin meets with more than a dozen mothers of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, telling those who had lost sons that he and the entire leadership shares their suffering.




www.abc.net.au













Moment ‘critically ill’ Putin wheezes & gasps in meeting with grieving mums


THIS is the moment Vladimir Putin appears to wheeze and gasp through a meeting with grieving mums whose children were killed in Ukraine. Russia’s president – who is reportedly “cr…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)

Putin's ruthless warlord sends EU a sledgehammer covered in blood after Russia declared ‘a terrorist state’


A SICK and twisted message has been sent to the European Parliament from one of Putin’s most notorious warlords in response to being linked with terrorism. On Wednesday, the EU officially cal…




www.thesun.co.uk

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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)

More on Putin's fake meeting with so-called mothers:

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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> Putin's ruthless warlord sends EU a sledgehammer covered in blood after Russia declared ‘a terrorist state’
> 
> 
> A SICK and twisted message has been sent to the European Parliament from one of Putin’s most notorious warlords in response to being linked with terrorism. On Wednesday, the EU officially cal…
> ...

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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 26, 2022)

Russians may be preparing to retreat from southern Ukraine
 

The occupiers are already setting up firing positions 15-20km inland.Nataliya Humenyuk, head of the press centre of the Guard and Defence Forces of Operational Command South, said this on the Espresso TV channel. She said … The Russians already understand the failure of their military strategy.




en.socportal.info





Hard to believe. But initially it was also hard to believe that Russians where preparing to retreat from Kherson

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 26, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russians may be preparing to retreat from southern Ukraine
> 
> 
> The occupiers are already setting up firing positions 15-20km inland.Nataliya Humenyuk, head of the press centre of the Guard and Defence Forces of Operational Command South, said this on the Espresso TV channel. She said … The Russians already understand the failure of their military strategy.
> ...


Wouldn’t that leave the AFU right on Crimea’s doorstep? If Putin loses Crimea, his pride and joy achievement since 2014, can he survive the prestige loss?

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## SaparotRob (Nov 26, 2022)

He might. Inside that weird 1984-like Russkiy Mir, it would probably be spun as Czar Vladolph heroically taking on NATOnazis and that puppet of a clown who controls ruZZian lands just to the west. 
If he doesn’t fall out a window first.


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## GTX (Nov 26, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Are these Russian or Ukrainian troops shown in these trenches with mud filled boots? I can’t see the AFU deploying their troops thusly unless desperate. I like to think that the Russians are ill-equipped and freezing in their trenches whilst the Ukrainians are well-equipped and drier/warmer (get them waterproof boots!) in their forward positions.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 26, 2022)

Or cut off for while?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 26, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russians may be preparing to retreat from southern Ukraine
> 
> 
> The occupiers are already setting up firing positions 15-20km inland.Nataliya Humenyuk, head of the press centre of the Guard and Defence Forces of Operational Command South, said this on the Espresso TV channel. She said … The Russians already understand the failure of their military strategy.
> ...



It's not so hard to believe when we remember the Russians now have been roundly defeated twice in the last three months, with the one in Kharkiv a rout. Building reserve lines makes some sense ... not that I think it'll help Ivan that much, given the poor quality of Russian troops.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 26, 2022)

And an even lower quality officer corps.

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## manta22 (Nov 26, 2022)

I still think that somewhere, lurking in the shadows, is a Claus von Stauffenburg. Let's hope he gets it right this time.

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## Glider (Nov 26, 2022)

It might have been something he ate, or maybe looking at the Sunset out of his bedroom window



Belarus foreign minister dies suddenly, state news agency says

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## manta22 (Nov 26, 2022)

Glider said:


> It might have been something he ate, or maybe looking at the Sunset out of his bedroom window
> 
> 
> 
> Belarus foreign minister dies suddenly, state news agency says


I remember hearing a radio satire of "Hamlet" on the radio (AFN?) decades ago. In the real story, Hamlet's Father is killed by pouring poison (Henbane) in his ear. In the satire, the ghost of the father is asked how he died. He replies "They poured something in my ear." He is asked "What was it?" The reply "Bullets!"

Maybe something similar happened to Foreign Minister.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Russian missile accuracy is so bad they can't reliably hit a vehicle, can't hit a building, can't hit a city, and now can't even hit a country. Putin has done more damage to Russia's image as a world- class military power than anyone.


He is burning up his cruise missiles and Iskanders for what? Decentralizing the Ukrainian infrastructure? 1300 cruise missiles fired and they have barely killed 1000 Ukrainians. And the lights are back on in a few hours to days.



All Putin is doing is gifting Western Air Defenses to Ukraine much faster. Meanwhile, Putin will likely never have the capital to replace any of the missile systems wasted in Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 26, 2022)

Meanwhile….the Russians don’t know how to use whatever advanced kit they have.









Russia’s High-Tech Artillery System Was Supposed To Win The War In Ukraine. But Troops Didn’t Know How To Use It.


A sophisticated artillery fire-control system is useless if the troops don’t know how to operate it. Sure, they might fire off a lot of shells. Just don’t count on them hitting the right things—and certainly not quickly.




www.forbes.com





Paywall free version: archive.ph

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## CAC Woomera (Nov 27, 2022)

I'm not too sure if this has been posted here already but a friend recently sent me this while discussing Russia in the Ukraine War and the current status of their arms. It's a very interesting interview you guys might find interesting. Russian POW talks about experiences

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 27, 2022)

CAC Woomera said:


> I'm not too sure if this has been posted here already but a friend recently sent me this while discussing Russia in the Ukraine War and the current status of their arms. It's a very interesting interview you guys might find interesting. Russian POW talks about experiences




Those boots (@8:10 in the vid) are a recipe for frostbite, as noted in the comments.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 27, 2022)

From ISW:

_The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to increase starting in the next few weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes throughout the theater. Ukrainian and Russian reporting from critical frontline areas throughout eastern and southern Ukraine, including Svatove, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar, indicates that operations on both sides are currently bogged down by heavy rain and resulting heavy mud.[1] Temperatures are forecasted to drop throughout Ukraine over the next week, which will likely freeze the ground and expedite the pace of fighting as mobility increases for both sides. The temperature in areas in Ukraine’s northeast, such as along the Svatove-Kreminna line, will dip to near-or-below-freezing daily highs between November 28 and December 4. It will likely take the ground some days of consistent freezing temperatures to solidify, which means that ground conditions are likely to be set to allow the pace of operations to increase throughout Ukraine over the course of the weekend of December 3-4 and into the following week. It is unclear if either side is actively planning or preparing to resume major offensive or counter-offensive operations at that time, but the meteorological factors that have been hindering such operations will begin lifting._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## manta22 (Nov 27, 2022)

CAC Woomera said:


> I'm not too sure if this has been posted here already but a friend recently sent me this while discussing Russia in the Ukraine War and the current status of their arms. It's a very interesting interview you guys might find interesting. Russian POW talks about experiences


Poor bastard....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 27, 2022)

_KYIV, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The head of Ukraine's state-run nuclear energy firm said on Sunday there were signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the vast Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which they seized in March soon after their invasion.

[...]

"In recent weeks we are effectively receiving information that signs have appeared that they are possibly preparing to leave the (plant)," Petro Kotin, head of Energoatom, said on national television.

"Firstly, there are a very large number of reports in Russian media that it would be worth vacating the (plant) and maybe worth handing control (of it) to the (International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA)," he said, referring to the United Nations nuclear watchdog. "One gets the impression they're packing their bags and stealing everything they can."

[...]

Asked if it was too early to talk about Russian troops leaving the plant, Kotin said on television: "It's too early. We don't see this now, but they are preparing (to leave)."_









Ukraine nuclear boss says he sees signs Russia may leave occupied plant


The head of Ukraine's state-run nuclear energy firm said on Sunday there were signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the vast Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which they seized in March soon after their invasion.




www.reuters.com





This will be great news if it unfolds the way he's hoping.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Those boots (@8:10 in the vid) are a recipe for frostbite, as noted in the comments.


Nothing wrong with waterproof rubber boots in winter, provided you‘re wearing thick fleece and woollen kit underneath. Though marching in such a ridged tall boot may cause some discomfort. Here’s my winter boot, essentially a farmer’s Welly, but rated to -40’F/C. And my preferred sock.









Men's Arctic Ice Mid + Vibram Arctic Grip A.T.


Men's Arctic Ice Mid + Vibram Arctic Grip A.T., Muck Boot Company Canada




www.muckbootcompany.ca













Best Winter Socks in Canada - Reviews & Buying Guide | Cansumer


When winter arrives, do you find your feet are freezing, which makes you hesitant to spend time outdoors? In addition to proper footwear, you should also invest in socks that keep your toes toasty without leaving them feeling sweaty.




cansumer.ca





I hope the Ukrainians are thusly equipped. The Russian’s OTOH can freeze.

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## GTX (Nov 27, 2022)

Heavy snow to blanket Kyiv as power shortages and blackouts continue


As Russia targets Ukraine's energy grid, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges people to save power with freezing temperatures and heavy snow forecast this week.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 27, 2022)

As Ukraine marks Holodomor anniversary, there is an exodus from Kherson after Russian shelling


A line of vehicles stretching for about a kilometre is seen leaving from Kherson, with more fleeing by train, as Ukrainians mark the 90th anniversary of the Holodomor famine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Nov 27, 2022)

Invading Georgia gave Putin a rush of confidence to invade Ukraine. Now Georgians are dealing with his escapees


In 2008, Moscow sent its military into Georgia to back separatists in two regions. Some analysts say the West's weak response to the invasion emboldened Vladimir Putin to eventually invade Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nothing wrong with waterproof rubber boots in winter, provided you‘re wearing thick fleece and woollen kit underneath. Though marching in such a ridged tall boot may cause some discomfort. Here’s my winter boot, essentially a farmer’s Welly, but rated to -40’F/C. And my preferred sock.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah. I didn't see much in the way of fleecy goodness in there!

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## manta22 (Nov 27, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nothing wrong with waterproof rubber boots in winter, provided you‘re wearing thick fleece and woollen kit underneath. Though marching in such a ridged tall boot may cause some discomfort. Here’s my winter boot, essentially a farmer’s Welly, but rated to -40’F/C. And my preferred sock.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The Marines around the Chosin Reservoir found the same thing. Many Chinese were equipped with only canvas-topped tennis shoes (!) and suffered frostbitten & frozen feet. Most Marines were issued "Shoe Packs", the things we called "'mousers" in Germany; short for Mickey Mouse boots. They were rubber outside with wool felt insulation. They were far warmer than GI issue leather combat boots.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 27, 2022)

manta22 said:


> The Marines around the Chosin Reservoir found the same thing. Many Chinese were equipped with only canvas-topped tennis shoes (!) and suffered frostbitten & frozen feet. Most Marines were issued "Shoe Packs", the things we called "'mousers" in Germany; short for Mickey Mouse boots. They were rubber outside with wool felt insulation. They were far warmer than GI issue leather combat boots.



We called those "bunny boots" when I was in the USAF. They were in the Arctic bag we had set aside for our Prime BEEF deployments. I never had occasion to wear them operationally, but we did deploy with that Arctic bag to Spain in August for Desert Shield, in a classic case of military planning.

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## GrauGeist (Nov 27, 2022)

My stepdad called them "Mickey mouse boots".
The ones of Korea vintage could be partially inflated, too.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 27, 2022)

More on the hell that is Bakhmut:

In Ukraine, Bakhmut Becomes a Bloody Vortex for 2 Militaries

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 28, 2022)

US weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine


US and allied military inventories are shrinking, and Ukraine faces an increasing need for more sophisticated weapons as the war drags on. Boeing's proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production...




www.thejakartapost.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 28, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Nov 28, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> US weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
> 
> 
> US and allied military inventories are shrinking, and Ukraine faces an increasing need for more sophisticated weapons as the war drags on. Boeing's proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production...
> ...


The Suchomimus channel on YT just did a video on this. I like the idea of sending 100,000 "ATACMS Lite" to Ukraine instead of trashing the rockets. Go Boeing!


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## Snautzer01 (Nov 28, 2022)

One should not piss Boeing off. Some very clever people there. And the know how to make a god awfull many of what the designed.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 28, 2022)



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## Night Fighter Nut (Nov 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Yeah. I didn't see much in the way of fleecy goodness in there!


I'm no expert about their rubber boots and I didn't get to see or read some of the information you are referring to so forgive me if I go about this wrong. About those Mickey Mouse boots, I've had to wear those while I was in Korea. They do keep your feet warm. As for the Russians, they use what looks like a black felt boot. I haven't heard if they put rubber boots over them but they do keep feet warm. I wore a pair during one of my visits to Russia some time ago during new year celebration.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 28, 2022)

Interesting assessment on the impact of winter on operations in Ukraine:









Thread by @Jack_Watling on Thread Reader App


@Jack_Watling: There has been a lot of discussion around the effects of winter on operations. I thought I’d outline a couple of aspects of winter fighting that are both critical and often under appreciated. BLUF: Wi...…




threadreaderapp.com





His blog has a LOT of material...plenty to dig through for those so inclined.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 28, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> One should not piss Boeing off. Some very clever people there. And the know how to make a god awfull many of what the designed.



When Boeing gets you in the reticle, that's your ass.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The Suchomimus channel on YT just did a video on this. I like the idea of sending 100,000 "ATACMS Lite" to Ukraine instead of trashing the rockets. Go Boeing!


This war in Ukraine has presented an excellent opportunity for the West to use its soon to expire arms in reducing Russia to bit player status, all whilst not costing the West a single soldier.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We called those "bunny boots" when I was in the USAF. They were in the Arctic bag we had set aside for our Prime BEEF deployments. I never had occasion to wear them operationally, but we did deploy with that Arctic bag to Spain in August for Desert Shield, in a classic case of military planning.


Torrejón? Sh*y then! An awful wheather to wore them in August for sure!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Torrejón? Sh*y then! An awful wheather to wore them in August for sure!



No, I was at Moron de la Frontera. Hotter than the Devil's soles.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 29, 2022)

Looks like the T-62 is entering Ukrainian service with aplomb, where they will provide fine fire support for infantry units.



The Ukrainian Army Captured Dozens Of The Russian Army’s Old T-62 Tanks—And Is Now Sending Them Back Into Battle



I wonder if the T-62 is more survivable from penetration hits since there's no carousel of ammunition below the turret. Of course if the T-72 is more resistant to penetration in the first place you'll survive longer. This video gives some insight.



And just for interest, a vid on the crisis facing Russia's tank army.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The Tu-95&Tu-160 lack the capability of dropping free fall bombs but the Tu-22 could do it.


Looks like Russia may agree with you.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This war in Ukraine has presented an excellent opportunity for the West to use its soon to expire arms in reducing Russia to bit player status, all whilst not costing the West a single soldier.


There have been so many appeasers crying out that we're depleting our stocks. Who were these weapons intended to fight? Western military equipment sent to Ukraine is delivering the most bang for the buck. No NATO troops involved as this equipment eliminates the conventional threat posed by the Czar. From a pure cold, callous hearted view, it's almost like the weapons are "autonomous". They're sent to Ukraine and Russian forces are destroyed without our guys being in danger. 
Boeings GLSDBs might be a game changer. A butt-ton of these things on USN ships and on Taiwan, China has far greater air defense problems for their growing navy. 
And we were just going to throw them away.

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Boeings GLSDBs might be a game changer.


Agreed.

If GLSDBs are being reported on now, then I assume Ukraine already has the weapons. Same as the ATACMS.









GLSDB ammunition for Ukrainian HIMARS rocket launchers


Washington wants to double the range of Ukraine's HIMARS rocket systems by supplying GLSDB ammunition, which are low-caliber glide bombs adapted for ground lau




www.aviacionline.com

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## SaparotRob (Nov 29, 2022)

Russia is digging out equipment from WW II while the U.S. looks into its trash bin and pulls out a wonder weapon. On the cheap.


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## wlewisiii (Nov 29, 2022)

I thought this was an interesting way to look at this issue:



> It's a popular refrain: Why doesn't the West supply Ukraine with "X," where X are advanced weapons platforms like NATO battle tanks, advanced infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot and other air defenses, and fighter jets. Some will darkly mutter that NATO doesn't want Ukraine to win, that the West prefers Russia to bleed out slowly, that Putin is being protected, etc.
> 
> Yet the real answer is the same answer I've been giving since the first weeks of the war—operating such gear might not be too hard, but maintaining it is a monumental challenge for Western armies. For Ukraine, dealing with myriad new weapons systems in the middle of a brutal war? Impossible.
> 
> ...



Ukraine update: There's a good reason Ukraine hasn't gotten the most modern weapons

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## GrauGeist (Nov 29, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I thought this was an interesting way to look at this issue:
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: There's a good reason Ukraine hasn't gotten the most modern weapons


Interesting article, but any military will send equipment to the rear for refitting/repair while refreshed units are enroute to the front.
The issue with Ukraine is logistics and supply - their fronts are rapidly moving and trying to establish a forward repair depot would be preferable but would have to be stocked with a wide range of material and would also be well within range of Russian attack.

Sending equipment back to Poland, Romania or other countries keeps them out of harm's way while being refurbished.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Nov 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> No, I was at Moron de la Frontera. Hotter than the Devil's soles.


Yep, a bad place to be in August with those also.

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## RogerdeLluria (Nov 29, 2022)

LRU M270 MLRS rocket launchers donated by France arrived in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army


LRU MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) rocket launcher vehicles promised by France have arrived in Ukraine.




www.armyrecognition.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> LRU M270 MLRS rocket launchers donated by France arrived in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army
> 
> 
> LRU MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) rocket launcher vehicles promised by France have arrived in Ukraine.
> ...


Nice. And the greater overland mobility of the tracked variant will be useful in the winter.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 29, 2022)

Sharing this primarily for the awesome pic of the ZU-23/2 in action at the top of the article. Glad to see Western nations recognizing the need for more humanitarian support over the winter months. 









Ukraine war: Nato pledges to provide more weapons and fix power grid


Millions of Ukrainians remain without power and water in freezing temperatures after Russian strikes.



www.bbc.com

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## Glider (Nov 29, 2022)

This is interesting and I find him worth listening too



Russian forces 'gather by Nova Kakhovka'

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 29, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Yep, a bad place to be in August with those also.



We opened the Arctic bags before deploying to ensure they had all their contents. We didn't open them again for seven months, until we returned home and inventoried their contents before returning them to the Supply office for long-term storage again.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 29, 2022)

Good analysis of the ongoing fighting for Bakhmut:

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## buffnut453 (Nov 30, 2022)

Come to the dark side...we have cookies!









Ukraine war: The surrender hotline for Russian soldiers


The "I Want To Live" project says it is getting up to 100 enquiries a day from invading troops.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Nov 30, 2022)

General Surovikin: A Different Russian Commander in Ukraine?


Part I of an assessment of the potential impact of a new unified commander for Russia




mickryan.substack.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 30, 2022)

_NEW DELHI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery including parts for cars, aircraft and trains, four sources familiar with the matter said, as sanctions squeeze Russia's ability to keep vital industries running.

The list, a version of which has been seen by Reuters in New Delhi, is provisional and it is unclear how many of the items will eventually be exported and in what quantity, but an Indian government source said the request was unusual in its scope.

India is keen to boost trade in this way, said the source, as it tries to narrow a ballooning trade deficit with Russia. Some companies have expressed concern, however, about potentially falling foul of Western sanctions.

An industry source in Moscow, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade asked large companies to supply lists of raw materials and equipment they needed.

The source added that further discussion would be needed to agree specifications and volumes and that the outreach was not limited to India._









Exclusive: India asked by sanctions-hit Russia for parts for key sectors


Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery including parts for cars, aircraft and trains, as sanctions squeeze Russia's ability to keep vital industries running.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _NEW DELHI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery _


India would be nuts to fulfil any orders from Russia. Unlike with China, there’s little the West needs to buy from India. If you want to lose all your trade in an instant, go ahead and sell to Russia. The world is choosing sides, and India doesn’t want to be without friends when, after Russia’s collapse, it’s next West vs. China.

If I was India I’d instead be contacting Washington (or some neutral) to broker the sale of a thousand Indian-made Ajeya MBTs to Poland (through another neutral). These early T-72 analog-equipped variants will be very welcome in Poland, *and nearby*.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> India would be nuts to fulfil any orders from Russia. Unlike with China, there’s little the West needs to buy from India. If you want to lose all your trade in an instant, go ahead and sell to Russia. The world is choosing sides, and India doesn’t want to be without friends when, after Russia’s collapse, it’s next West vs. China.
> 
> If I was India I’d instead be contacting Washington (or some neutral) to broker the sale of a thousand Indian-made Ajeya MBTs to Poland (through another neutral). These early T-72 analog-equipped variants will be very welcome in Poland, *and nearby*.



I'm not so sure the view from the Indian perspective is that dire, but I agree that it would be a big mistake.


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## Admiral Beez (Nov 30, 2022)

Looks like someone has a beef with Ukraine.









Ukraine embassy, Spanish arms company receive letter bombs -police


Police in Spain are examining a possible link between two letter bombs sent to the Ukrainian ambassador in Madrid and to an arms company that manufactures rocket launchers donated to Kyiv, they confirmed in a statement on Wednesday.




www.reuters.com

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## GrauGeist (Nov 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like someone has a beef with Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Several months back, a Russian businessman and his family were murdered in Spain, too.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Several months back, a Russian businessman and his family were murdered in Spain, too.



Probably easier to conduct these spec-ops in a neutral power.

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## MiTasol (Nov 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _NEW DELHI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery including parts for cars, aircraft and trains, four sources familiar with the matter said, as sanctions squeeze Russia's ability to keep vital industries running.
> 
> The list, a version of which has been seen by Reuters in New Delhi, is provisional and it is unclear how many of the items will eventually be exported and in what quantity, but an Indian government source said the request was unusual in its scope.
> 
> ...



Ukraine should be asking India for the same military parts and saying that post war they will only purchase goods from companies (or better countries) that aid them and not Russia during the war.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 30, 2022)

_
Nov 30 (Reuters) - Russia will pay special attention to building infrastructure for its nuclear forces in 2023, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Wednesday.

Shoigu said in televised comments that the Russia would also work to improve the combat capabilities of its missile forces and that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, with close to 6,000 warheads.

President Vladimir Putin has placed territory seized by Russia in Ukraine under Moscow's nuclear umbrella, warning that he is ready to defend Russia's "territorial integrity" by all available means. The United States says it has warned Russia over the consequences of any use of nuclear weapons._









Russia says it will focus on building nuclear arms infrastructure in 2023


Russia will pay special attention to building infrastructure for its nuclear forces in 2023, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Wednesday.




www.reuters.com





It makes me wonder even more if current Russian threats aren't bluff? Perhaps they did a review and found problems?

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 30, 2022)

If their nuke program is run with the same level of integrity and efficiency as the rest of the military....

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## Glider (Nov 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _Nov 30 (Reuters) - Russia will pay special attention to building infrastructure for its nuclear forces in 2023, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Wednesday.
> 
> Shoigu said in televised comments that the Russia would also work to improve the combat capabilities of its missile forces and that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, with close to 6,000 warheads.
> 
> ...


They also have to redesign their key tank which has a serious design flaw. Replace thousands of tanks, APC's, trucks, artillery, AA missiles, uniforms, combat gear, communications, ECM, literally everything from socks to warships, aircraft even satellites which have clearly been ineffective. Retrain their army from the most senior officers to the sgt's and rethink all the logistics.
They need to do all this without the technology from the West on an economy a fraction of most European countries. 

Does anyone seriously think they have the money, time, people and technology to renew the strategic forces in addition to this?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Nov 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> They also have to redesign their key tank which has a serious design flaw. Replace thousands of tanks, APC's, trucks, artillery, AA missiles, uniforms, combat gear, communications, ECM, literally everything from socks to warships, aircraft even satellites which have clearly been ineffective. Retrain their army from the most senior officers to the sgt's and rethink all the logistics.
> They need to do all this without the technology from the West on an economy a fraction of most European countries.
> 
> Does anyone seriously think they have the money, time, people and technology to renew the strategic forces in addition to this?



Agreed. Russia is in a very bad dead-end alley right now, unless and until not just regime change happens, but systematic outlook changes.

To be frank, I'm less worried about global thermonuclear war than I am about Russia falling apart and all those nukes being sold to terrorist groups.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> They also have to redesign their key tank which has a serious design flaw. Replace thousands of tanks, APC's, trucks, artillery, AA missiles, uniforms, combat gear, communications, ECM, literally everything from socks to warships, aircraft even satellites which have clearly been ineffective. Retrain their army from the most senior officers to the sgt's and rethink all the logistics.
> They need to do all this without the technology from the West on an economy a fraction of most European countries.
> 
> Does anyone seriously think they have the money, time, people and technology to renew the strategic forces in addition to this?


Maybe they should ask the AFU for some pointers?


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## Glider (Nov 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Maybe they should ask the AFU for some pointers?


A cunning plan, but with one or two problems I can identify

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> To be frank, I'm less worried about global thermonuclear war than I am about Russia falling apart and all those nukes being sold to terrorist groups.


I am surprised that Russia hasn’t already advanced Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

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## buffnut453 (Nov 30, 2022)

UK strikes digital trade deal with Ukraine


The agreement is expected to improve cooperation on cyber security, AI and new technologies.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Nov 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Maybe they should ask the AFU for some pointers?


Has Ukraine had to front any money for the weapons it’s received? Free modern weapons vs. financially-irreplaceable obsolete weapons…. I pick the former.

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## WARSPITER (Nov 30, 2022)

Glider said:


> They also have to redesign their key tank which has a serious design flaw. Replace thousands of tanks, APC's, trucks, artillery, AA missiles, uniforms, combat gear, communications, ECM, literally everything from socks to warships, aircraft even satellites which have clearly been ineffective. Retrain their army from the most senior officers to the sgt's and rethink all the logistics.
> They need to do all this without the technology from the West on an economy a fraction of most European countries.
> 
> Does anyone seriously think they have the money, time, people and technology to renew the strategic forces in addition to this?


Not learning from history is bad enough. Not learning from your own history is even worse.
The USSR went broke trying to do all that and now they are going to go down the same path.

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## Greg Boeser (Nov 30, 2022)

No, you don't understand. The old USSR failed because it was a corrupt, totalitarian, communist dictatorship. We have gotten rid of the communism.

- Signed,
The Russian Federation

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## WARSPITER (Nov 30, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> No, you don't understand. The old USSR failed because it was a corrupt, totalitarian, communist dictatorship. We have gotten rid of the communism.
> 
> - Signed,
> The Russian Federation


Yes you are right there. Was so busy looking at history I forgot research contemporary "facts".
Thanks for that.

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## SaparotRob (Nov 30, 2022)

It's all going to plan.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 1, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Not learning from history is bad enough. Not learning from your own history is even worse.


Not just Russia. Seems to be a global pandemic these days. Maybe the worldwide exposure to electronically simulated reality has fueled an addiction to alternate reality and a blurring of true reality (If it ain't pretty, don't look at it). Suppose RVRS (Runaway Virtual Reality Syndrome) could be the next global pandemic?

PS: Next?? Hey, it's already here, just under the radar.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Looks like someone has a beef with Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


UPDATE: *Six letter bombs* have been detected so far. Except the one sent to Ukraine Embassy all other have been intercepted.
- Ukraine Embassy in Spain
- Spanish President
- Spanish Minister of defense
- Instalaza (Spanish company that produces the C90 antitank rockets sent to Ukraine)
- European Union Satellite Centre in the Torrejon de Ardoz military base (provides images to Ukrainian military)
- US Embassy in Spain

Aparently all share similar characteristics wich sugests all have been sent by the same person/group, most probably from Spain.


Article mentions only 5, US embassy discovery is very recent








Spain tightens security after discovery of five letter bombs


Incendiary devices sent to PM, defence ministry, arms firm and airbase, and one that exploded at Ukraine embassy




www.theguardian.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 1, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> UPDATE: *Six letter bombs* have been detected so far. Except the one sent to Ukraine Embassy all other have been intercepted.
> - Instalaza (Spanish company that produces the C90 antitank rockets sent to Ukraine)
> - European Union Satellite Centre in the Torrejon de Ardoz military base (provides images to Ukrainian military)


Hmm... this might provoke Spain to increase its aid to Ukraine. There are still those Leopard 2 tanks in rough storage. I'm sure if donated someone in Western Europe or even Canada could restore them. Rheinmetall Canada's Leopard 2 maintenance and restoration facility in Quebec is something else Rheinmetall Canada delivers first Leopard 2 tanks to Canadian Army

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I am surprised that Russia hasn’t already advanced Iran’s nuclear weapons program.



I would be surprised if that isn't in the agreement that's seen Iranian arms in Russian use.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> It's all going to plan.



Pee-WEE! Pee-WEE! Pee-WEE!

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 1, 2022)

A short thread on the Gepard in Ukraine

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Hmm... this might provoke Spain to increase its aid to Ukraine. There are still those Leopard 2 tanks in rough storage. I'm sure if donated someone in Western Europe or even Canada could restore them. Rheinmetall Canada's Leopard 2 maintenance and restoration facility in Quebec is something else Rheinmetall Canada delivers first Leopard 2 tanks to Canadian Army



As Greg Boeser said URSS was a corrupt, totalitarian, communist dictatorship. Unfortunately Spanish far left still think Russia is communist and far right admire Putin for what it actually is (corrupt, totalitarian, dictatorship). Ideally we should get rid of both the far left party and the far right party, that will do more for increasing help than any other internal/external thread/provocation

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A short thread on the Gepard in Ukraine




Who does not love a flakpanzer?

















Not counting Russian pilots, of course.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 1, 2022)

Russians rejoicing that, without Russian gas, EU citizens will freeze at +19 C in their apartments this winter (mine is currently at 20.5 and I have yet to use heating )



Edit: Apparently the video is from 2019, but still ....

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

_
KYIV, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Ukraine's military said on Thursday Russia had pulled some troops from towns on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River from Kherson city, the first official Ukrainian report of a Russian withdrawal on what is now the main front line in the south.

The statement gave only limited details and made no mention of any Ukrainian forces having crossed the Dnipro. Ukrainian officials also stressed that Russia had intensified shelling across the river, knocking out power again in Kherson where electricity had only begun to be restored nearly three weeks after Russian troops vacated the city and fled across the river.


Since Russia abandoned Kherson last month, nine months into its invasion of Ukraine, the river now forms the entire southern stretch of the front.

Russia has already told civilians to leave towns within 15 km of the river and withdrawn its civilian administration from the city of Nova Kakhovka on the bank. Ukrainian officials have previously said Russia pulled back some artillery near the river to safer positions further away, but until now had stopped short of saying Russian forces were quitting towns.

_









Ukraine says Russia pulls back forces from river towns opposite Kherson


Ukraine's military said on Thursday Russia had pulled some troops from towns on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River from Kherson city, the first official Ukrainian report of a Russian withdrawal on what is now the main front line in the south.




www.reuters.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

Here's an interesting article in response to those who argue for a negotiated peace settlement for the invasion. The paragraph that struck me as the crux, and which resonates completely with me, is this one:

_The more apt comparison is a school shooting. When an active shooter is victimizing schoolchildren and teachers, there is nothing to negotiate: every life is in imminent danger. Russian troops are killing civilians as well as soldiers in Ukraine. Its cities and towns—including apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, train stations, and nuclear power facilities—face the daily prospect of indiscriminate bombardment. With temperatures plunging, Russia is systematically destroying the power infrastructure. Ukraine's crisis is, in short, a geopolitical "Uvalde," the one distinction being that the Ukrainians say they can expel the Russians themselves if provided sufficient weapons and funding._

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _The more apt comparison is a school shooting. When an active shooter is victimizing schoolchildren and teachers, there is nothing to negotiate: every life is in imminent danger. _


You reminded me of that recent school shooting in Texas, where those entrusted to defend the civilians waited outside, reticent to enter lest they themselves be endangered or the situation made somehow worse.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> You reminded me of that recent school shooting in Texas, where those entrusted to defend the civilians waited outside, reticent to enter lest they themselves be endangered or the situation made somehow worse.



Exactly, thus the Uvalde reference in the article. I think it's spot-on, that when we see an active-shooter event unfolding, _doing nothing is not an option_.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Here's an interesting article in response to those who argue for a negotiated peace settlement for the invasion. The paragraph that struck me as most the crux, and which resonates completely with me, is this one:
> 
> _The more apt comparison is a school shooting. When an active shooter is victimizing schoolchildren and teachers, there is nothing to negotiate: every life is in imminent danger. Russian troops are killing civilians as well as soldiers in Ukraine. Its cities and towns—including apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, train stations, and nuclear power facilities—face the daily prospect of indiscriminate bombardment. With temperatures plunging, Russia is systematically destroying the power infrastructure. Ukraine's crisis is, in short, a geopolitical "Uvalde," the one distinction being that the Ukrainians say they can expel the Russians themselves if provided sufficient weapons and funding._



Isn’t it sad that we lost one of our online family members here over this topic. The Basket was a big advocate for suing for peace early in the war. He got pretty heated over it and left. Has not been back since.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 1, 2022)

His last post…

_“Oh dear.

Let's see how history plays out instead. Let's see who is right.”_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Isn’t it sad that we lost one of our online family members here over this topic. The Basket was a big advocate for suing for peace early in the war. He got pretty heated over it and left. Has not been back since.



I didn't realize that was the reason for his absence, though I knew his stance on the war. Sure do miss him -- we didn't always see eye-to-eye but he was a real character.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 1, 2022)

It's true that variety makes a horse race, and it's good to have different opinions, which makes for a healthy discussion.

But like a horse race, not everyone's opinion "wins" - it's a shame that some people have to insist that their opinion is the only one that is right.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I didn't realize that was the reason for his absence, though I knew his stance on the war. Sure do miss him -- we didn't always see eye-to-eye but he was a real character.



Agreed, I had no issue with him on a personal level. And like all families, you don’t always agree, but I still liked the guy.

He may have had other reasons, he never said why he was leaving, but since that was his last post I am assuming.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed, I had no issue with him on a personal level. And like all families, you don’t always agree, but I still liked the guy.
> 
> He may have had other reasons, he never said why he was leaving, but since that was his last post I am assuming.



Understood. I hope he sees fit to come back, he was a hoot and also had good points to add in his inimitable style.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Exactly, thus the Uvalde reference in the article. I think it's spot-on, that when we see an active-shooter event unfolding, _doing nothing is not an option_.


Whoops, I missed the reference to the Uvalde shooting.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Whoops, I missed the reference to the Uvalde shooting.



No big, I misread you earlier today as well.


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## SaparotRob (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Understood. I hope he sees fit to come back, he was a hoot and also had good points to add in his inimitable style.


Funniest guy on the Forum.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Funniest guy on the Forum.



He was right there with you and 

 Greg Boeser
, for my money.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

<screwed-up edit, mods please delete?>

ETA: I blame a couple of cans of Independence Brewery's Convict Hill Oatmeal Stout, at 8.0%.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> He was right there with you and
> 
> Greg Boeser
> , for my money.


🤯

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> <screwed-up edit, mods please delete?>
> 
> ETA: I blame a couple of cans of Independence Brewery's Convict Hill Oatmeal Stout, at 8.0%.



I would have deleted it, but I’m laughing too hard about the Oatmeal Stout part.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 1, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I would have deleted it, but I’m laughing too hard about the Oatmeal Stout part.



It's a damned good beer, but don't step on the gas with it!


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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 1, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It's a damned good beer, but don't step on the gas with it!


Stouts rule!

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## GrauGeist (Dec 2, 2022)

With the recent stress level here n the home front, I have elevated from defcon Lager to defcon Gentleman Jack.

So I am double proofreading my comments not for grammatical errors but for ban-able content.

So far so good...

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 2, 2022)

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 2, 2022)

Seems that the countries (or their presidents actually) that pushed for "negotiations" are slowly sliding to the "Russians go home" camp

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 2, 2022)

Interesting that we already discussed this possibility many months ago in this same thread

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## ARTESH (Dec 2, 2022)

I have been banned from this "Persian" forum, many years ago... the reason, needs its own topic and has no relation with the ongoing events in Ukraine.

However here is the "Iranian" version of events ... I think some people here find it interesting...

my personal pov: Slava Ukraina 🇺🇦






تحلیل و پیگیری تحولات اوکراین


شخصی که تمامی دعوا ها سر او بود! خانم تیموشنکو پس از آزادی از حبس، در میدان اصلی تظاهرات حاضر و برای طرفدران خود سخنرانی کرد.



www.military.ir

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 2, 2022)

Looks like a large percentage of old Russian cruise missiles Kh-22s are exploding mid-air. Here is a thread explaining the reasons.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Stouts rule!


Just keep the chocolate and coffee out of mine. 

Artisanal stouts can be gross, but I can appreciate the history of those with chocolate, milk, etc.









What is a Stout Beer? Everything You Need to Know!


If you’re new to the world of craft beers, you might be thinking stout beer makes you – well, stout! Not so. This distinctive beer is no more calorific than most others. But it does




renegadebrewing.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> By the end of the year, German officials said, they hope to be drawing less than a third of the country's gas from Russia."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The German people have a way of solving issues I like.

Germans Have Seen the Future, and It’s a Heat Pump

Getting heat pumps like these into general use in Canada would take decades. Meanwhile the Germans just blast through and get it done.

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## Crimea_River (Dec 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The German people have a way of solving issues I like.
> 
> Germans Have Seen the Future, and It’s a Heat Pump
> 
> Getting heat pumps like these into general use in Canada would take decades. Meanwhile the Germans just blast through and get it done.


Right. That's when global warming will have brought my outdoor temperature up from my current -24C in which a heat pump doesn't work worth a damn. I have a friend who paid 13 grand for a heat pump and he still has a normal gas furnace to supplement it in the winter.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting that we already discussed this possibility many months ago in this same thread



I'm surprised the Moldovans and Georgians haven't yet risen up to take over their separatist regions.

It must be rather disheartening to be a Russian-backed separatist nowadays. Sort of like being in the Sonderdivision Russland when in 1945 you realized you bet on the wrong horse.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 2, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Interesting that we already discussed this possibility many months ago in this same thread



wow...didn't see that coming.

(said while looking over at Georgia)

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## buffnut453 (Dec 2, 2022)

Welcome to another comment from Putler-world where life is wonderful all the time (they’re coming to take me away, hah-ha, he-hee, ho-ho, to the funny farm etc etc etc):









Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks


The Kremlin says the West's refusal to recognise its seizure of Ukrainian land makes talks harder.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Welcome to another comment from Putler-world where life is wonderful all the time (they’re coming to take me away, hah-ha, he-hee, ho-ho, to the funny farm etc etc etc):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He should "live in a place where the nuts hunt the squirrels. Ho ho hee hee ha ha." He does seem to live in a split-level head. 
I owned the album.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks


JMFC, what cards does Putin thinks he hold here to make such a demand? He's losing on all fronts in the war, and the West gets to systematically destroy the Russian military without risk of lives at a tiny fraction of what a hot war would cost it, all while getting to use up its older and test its latest weapons and systems. Meanwhile NATO has never been so united, and the West is now shaken out of military complacency re. China. Then there's Europe finally breaking its dependence on Russia (or anyone's) natural gas with big investments in alternative energy. There is little downside for the West to keep supporting Ukraine until the last Russia has left Ukraine's pre-2014 borders, even it that takes to 2025. The economic and political destruction and neutering of Russia and its interferences in eastern Europe and the Middle East is a goal the whole world can benefit from.

Meanwhile, the West is just getting started.









War Industry Looking Forward to “Multiyear Authority” in Ukraine


Next year’s defense authorization envisions pouring billions in no-bid contracts into the U.S. war machine’s “industrial base.”




theintercept.com














UK will match record Ukraine support in 2023


Prime Minister announces the UK will meet or exceed the amount of military aid spent on Ukraine in 2022 next year.




www.gov.uk













Italy's Govt Backs Sending Weapons to Ukraine Through 2023


Italy's new far-right government issued a decree Thursday to go on sending weapons to Ukraine through 2023.




www.thedefensepost.com













Germany to send seven additional Gepard tanks to Ukraine


Germany is preparing to deliver seven Gepard tanks to Ukraine, adding to the 30 air-defence tanks that are already being used to fight against the Russian army, according to a German government website.




www.reuters.com





By spring 2023, Ukraine's airspace will be comprehensively defended by NASAMS, VAMPIRE and other air defence systems, and the AFU's offensives will be backed with GLSDB, ATACMS and dozens of new rocket and gun artillery systems (firing Excalibur GPS munitions) from the West, all supported by the latest drones. By then those Russians who didn't freeze to death over winter will be armed with nothing of the sort. Russia is doomed.

Putin had no idea what a beehive he was kicking in Feb 2020. By Feb 2021 he'll have well over 100,000 dead Russians. And the West will keep on going as long as Ukraine has the will to fight on, since this war is costing the West no lives and kicking Russia is the primary reason NATO has any military budgets at all, so we might as well use it before the stuff expires. There's no downside for the West.

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## Dimlee (Dec 2, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> I have been banned from this "Persian" forum, many years ago... the reason, needs its own topic and has no relation with the ongoing events in Ukraine.
> 
> However here is the "Iranian" version of events ... I think some people here find it interesting...
> 
> ...


And freedom to Iran. 
As Poles said years ago: *Za wolność naszą i waszą.*

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## Dimlee (Dec 2, 2022)

_"This Mission will train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers... already, now, 1,100 soldiers are being trained in different camps. 20 Member States participate in this Mission..."_





EUMAM Ukraine: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell during his visit to the Brzeg training facility | EEAS Website







www.eeas.europa.eu




One of the best investments the EU has ever made, IMHO.

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## Snautzer01 (Dec 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"This Mission will train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers... already, now, 1,100 soldiers are being trained in different camps. 20 Member States participate in this Mission..."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It will depend on the tasks they are trained for. Foot soldiers or techie techie guys . I bet quite a few tech guys getting knowledge of modern tactics. Armour with drones and propelled rocket infanterie and sorts.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 2, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"This Mission will train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers... already, now, 1,100 soldiers are being trained in different camps. 20 Member States participate in this Mission..."_
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The commitment y'all have shown in the last eight+ years fully justifies Western confidence and support, as does Ukrainian courage and leadership -- leadership at all levels of authority from Zelenskyy down to the platoon sergeants and individual soldiers. The Russians have grabbed the tiger by the tail ... now what?

We in the West owe y'all every bit of support we can muster, and then some.

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## Glider (Dec 2, 2022)

Am I the only person who gets the impression that the Ukraine forces are starting to settle down. In the sense that the supply and training are getting settled with a number of countries committing to support Ukraine during 2023. In addition the training paths in Europe and the UK with assistance from other countries are in place to ensure that their troops will be trained to a reasonable degree. Also the training which originally was basic infantry training to give them a chance in combat, is getting more specialised and comprehensive.

While this is going on the Russian are still scrambling around trying to get almost anything into the front line. I even saw a photo of a 122mm M1931/37 in use. The twinned wheels are quite distinctive. Training is chaotic and the basic infantry equipment is almost minimal

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## Glider (Dec 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> wow...didn't see that coming.
> 
> (said while looking over at Georgia)


I would like to see how they are going to leave


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## GrauGeist (Dec 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> I would like to see how they are going to leave


Maybe via the bay near Ovidiopol (west of Odesa) that leads to the Black Sea.
Of course, they would be under Ukraine Armed Forces scrutiny the entire way.

An airlift would be quicker, but may be a bit risky.


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## SaparotRob (Dec 2, 2022)

A Ukrainian Good-Will gesture? Stop giggling.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 2, 2022)

Glider said:


> Am I the only person who gets the impression that the Ukraine forces are starting to settle down. In the sense that the supply and training are getting settled with a number of countries committing to support Ukraine during 2023. In addition the training paths in Europe and the UK with assistance from other countries are in place to ensure that their troops will be trained to a reasonable degree. Also the training which originally was basic infantry training to give them a chance in combat, is getting more specialised and comprehensive.
> 
> While this is going on the Russian are still scrambling around trying to get almost anything into the front line. I even saw a photo of a 122mm M1931/37 in use. The twinned wheels are quite distinctive. Training is chaotic and the basic infantry equipment is almost minimal



It looks to me like the Ukrainians are not in panic-mode, but the Russians are.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It looks to me like the Ukrainians are not in panic-mode, but the Russians are.


From my couch I’m a very little worried about Bahkmut.



Ukrainian Forces Outnumbered And Facing Supply Issues In Battle for Bakhmut

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> From my couch I’m a very little worried about Bahkmut.
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Forces Outnumbered And Facing Supply Issues In Battle for Bakhmut



It's a battle of attrition there. ISW assesses that Russia is throwing bad money after good, seemingly not having learnt the lessons of Lysichansk etc from late-spring/early-summer of this year -- devoting inordinate forces to missions of dubious value, and losing a lot of men in the process. I agree with that.

That doesn't make anything a damned bit easier for the defenders, and they're fighting a knock-down-drag-out too. But I think that because the Russians have suffered defeat doing this before, the Ukrainians have 'em by the nose. There's a kick in the Russian ass coming, no different than Chuikov dragging 6th Army into Stalingrad while the counterstroke builds up, is my guess.

Odd that the Russians seem to have forgotten this lesson they taught others. They're not only repeating the mistake the Germans made in 1942, they're also repeating the mistake they made only this last summer. That's the institutional memory of a flea.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 2, 2022)

I'm sure the AFU is just waiting for the ground the freeze. Along with a few thousand mobikis.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 2, 2022)

However, the front lines to either side of Bakhmut are seeing significant fighting, too.

I don't think Ukraine forces will lose the town and will most likely be supplied soon.

Meanwhile, Russia is losing an absurd amount of men trying to take Bakhmut.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, the front lines to either side of Bakhmut are seeing significant fighting, too.
> 
> I don't think Ukraine forces will lose the town and will most likely be supplied soon.
> 
> Meanwhile, Russia is losing an absurd amount of men trying to take Bakhmut.


Today’s summary looks to agree with you. I’m glad of that.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 2, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, the front lines to either side of Bakhmut are seeing significant fighting, too.
> 
> I don't think Ukraine forces will lose the town and will most likely be supplied soon.
> 
> Meanwhile, Russia is losing an absurd amount of men trying to take Bakhmut.



Again:

_Russian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns concentrated on objectives of limited operational or strategic significance. Russian forces have continually expended combat strength on small settlements around Bakhmut since the end of May; in the following six months, they have only secured gains on the order of a few kilometers at a time.[1] As ISW has previously observed, Russian efforts to advance on Bakhmut have resulted in the continued attrition of Russian manpower and equipment, pinning troops on relatively insignificant settlements for weeks and months at a time.[2] This pattern of operations closely resembles the previous Russian effort to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk earlier in the war. As ISW assessed throughout June and July of this year, Ukrainian forces essentially allowed Russian troops to concentrate efforts on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, two cities near the Luhansk Oblast border of limited operational and strategic significance, in order to capitalize on the continued degradation of Russian manpower and equipment over the course of months of grinding combat.[3] Russian troops eventually captured Lysychansk and Severodonetsk and reached the Luhansk Oblast border, but that tactical success translated to negligible operational benefit as the Russian offensive in the east then culminated. Russian efforts in this area have remained largely stalled along the lines that they reached in early July. Even if Russian troops continue to advance toward and within Bakhmut, and even if they force a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the city (as was the case in Lysychansk), Bakhmut itself offers them little operational benefit. The costs associated with six months of brutal, grinding, and attrition-based combat around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage that the Russians can obtain from taking Bakhmut. Russian offensives around Bakhmut, on the other hand, are consuming a significant proportion of Russia’s available combat power, potentially facilitating continued Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





There's nothing there for them to gain that can redress the losses they're incurring trying to take it. And even if they do take it, the grinddown they're suffering in the process works to Ukrainian advantage. The Russians are expending a lot for a little, and thinning out other fronts in the process.

I have no doubt the Ukrainian high command understands this, and plans to exploit it as the weather allows. It's not very different from what we were reading in July and early-mid August, before the Kharkiv stroke.

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## at6 (Dec 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Pee-WEE! Pee-WEE! Pee-WEE!


Would please quit mentioning that body part?

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## at6 (Dec 3, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Welcome to another comment from Putler-world where life is wonderful all the time (they’re coming to take me away, hah-ha, he-hee, ho-ho, to the funny farm etc etc etc):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Tell the Russians to suck trouser pickle.

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## fubar57 (Dec 3, 2022)

You're a bitter man Larry

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## at6 (Dec 3, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> You're a bitter man Larry


Not bitter, just don't believe in giving a terrorist what he wants. Give him hot lead instead.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 3, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It looks to me like the Ukrainians are not in panic-mode, but the Russians are.


They don't know what they should do, and if they did, they don't know how to do it.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 3, 2022)

at6 said:


> Tell the Russians to suck trouser pickle.


pickles, pee-wees?

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 3, 2022)

I think that was already planned and is totally unrelated to the recent mail-bombs, but ....



I think that Spain could do more --the goverment coalition with the far left doesn't help much--, but everything counts.

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## ARTESH (Dec 3, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> And freedom to Iran.
> As Poles said years ago: *Za wolność naszą i waszą.*


Thank you a lot.


RogerdeLluria said:


> I think that was already planned and is totally unrelated to the recent mail-bombs, but ....
> 
> 
> 
> I think that Spain could do more --the goverment coalition with the far left doesn't help much--, but everything counts.



A mixture of Persian and US news style, it reads:

OR hosted MR in OD


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 3, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I think that Spain could do more --the goverment coalition with the far left doesn't help much--, but everything counts.


Spain did offer to donate all its Leopard 2 MBTs, but these were deemed unrestorable. AIUI they were produced in Spain with majority locally made components rather than from German kits; so perhaps the tanks are somehow incapable of restoration.


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## Dimlee (Dec 3, 2022)

How the Russian ship cyber machine f***ed itself.









Lessons from Russia’s cyber-war in Ukraine


It has been intense, but not always effective. Why?




www.economist.com




Beyond the paywall:


archive.ph

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 3, 2022)

What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? The fleet of MiG-29s must be wearing out, but we’re years away from F-16s or Gripens.

Meanwhile, some news for the Russians. If only in penny packets.









Su-57 Felon To Enter Service With Elite Russian Air Force Unit


A historic unit in Russia's Far East will be first to receive Su-57 fighters, but until then, its Su-35s are fighting in the war in Ukraine.




www.thedrive.com

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? The fleet of MiG-29s must be wearing out, but we’re years away from F-16s or Gripens.
> 
> Meanwhile, some news for the Russians. If only in penny packets.
> 
> ...


And how quickly do think the Russians are going to be able to build these in quantity?

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## GrauGeist (Dec 3, 2022)

And why were they deployed to the far East when they're desperately needed in Ukraine?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 3, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? The fleet of MiG-29s must be wearing out, but we’re years away from F-16s or Gripens.
> 
> Meanwhile, some news for the Russians. If only in penny packets.



Four or five of these ... only stealthy from the front, only a few flying. When you think about it, they're really throwing prototypes into combat. What might that say? Looks to me like eating seedcorn.

I think Ukrainians will be flying F-16s in a couple of years, tops. I doubt there will be any Su-57s flying at that time.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 3, 2022)

Assuming the Su-57 is as good as hyped, it still won't be any more of a threat if the Russians keep it over Belorussian and Russian airspace just to chuck missiles. It's a dogfighter, right?

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## WARSPITER (Dec 4, 2022)

The SU-57 doesn't come anywhere near the latest US planes and can't while the production systems are
still at 1990's levels. The manufacturing equipment used for the F-35 is decades ahead of any other countries
and the production capability is as well.

Tolerances for the F-35 panels are milled so close they can fit together without any special radar absorbing
epoxy - that is with tolerances down to 1/10000th of an inch.

F-35's are currently being produced at around 140 a year but more recent development will increase that
significantly. One newer process is already giving the front fuselage section a production rate of 20 per month.

Russian manufacturing of the SU-57 is expected to deliver another 22 planes by the end of 2024.

2024 is a ways off at the moment but should Ukraine continue the way it is and get to the stage where the F-35
becomes an option for them Russian air capability will not hope to match it.

WWII tanks are a favourite of mine and there is always the argument of superior vs production.
Of course that means the German big cats as opposed to the T-34 and Sherman. When it comes to
the F-35 vs the rest Lockheed Martin have a platform which can be produced at a much higher rate (Sherman)
while at the same time being significantly superior (Pussy cats) to everything else.

I hope to see Ukraine with this kind of capability in coming years as their future security is a long term game.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 4, 2022)

Keep in mind that Ukraine was already in discussion with Lockheed-Martin back in 2021 for the purchase of block 70/72 airframes.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 4, 2022)

Well they are not a flying toy either. Again not good for Russia in the long term.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 4, 2022)

That’s the SU-57 thoroughly binned, but what of my question above? What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? By then the AFU offensives to take Crimea et al will be well underway.


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## GTX (Dec 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That’s the SU-57 thoroughly binned, but what of my question above? What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? By then the AFU offensives to take Crimea et al will be well underway.


No different to today. Unless they already have crews training to fly/maintain newer types and it is all being kept hush hush, there will be no new types entering service in the coming months.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 4, 2022)

GTX said:


> No different to today. Unless they already have crews training to fly/maintain newer types and it is all being kept hush hush, there will be no new types entering service in the coming months.


I did read that the British will be sending three Sea Kings. This would be the first western manned aircraft provided to the AFU since the beginning of the war. It’s not the Apaches they‘ve asked for, but it’s a start.









UK Sending Retired Sea Kings to Ukraine


British government to provide trio of retired Westland WS-61 Sea King helicopters to Ukraine.




www.ainonline.com





I wonder if they’re optimized for ASW or stripped out to Commando spec.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 4, 2022)

_Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower toward near the shore.[1] Special Unit “Carlson” reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast, if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 4, 2022)

EU citizens freezing to death ..... oh, wait ...

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 4, 2022)

The West must urgently overcome its fear of provoking Putin


Western leaders insist they will stand with Ukraine until Russia's invasion is defeated but fear of provoking Putin continues to constrain the democratic world's response to a war that has already cost tens of thousands of lives.




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 4, 2022)

Hopefully the West will learn from this.









What is the war in Ukraine teaching Western armies?


It shows the importance of dispersal, firepower and stockpiles




www.economist.com





Paywall free version: archive.ph

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## GrauGeist (Dec 4, 2022)

This entire "special operation" is straight out of the Eastern Front of WWII and I'm certain that it's being scrutinized by military leaders across the globe.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 4, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> This entire "special operation" is straight out of the Eastern Front of WWII and I'm certain that it's being scrutinized by military leaders across the globe.


I wonder what Beijing thinks as it eyes Taiwan for its own special operation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I wonder what Beijing thinks as it eyes Taiwan for its own special operation.



"80 miles of salt-water and a mountainous island on the other side" is my guess. Missiles (of which China has a metric butt-ton) can do a lot, but difficult terrain reduces effectiveness, and there's no replacement for soldiers on the ground.

I myself wonder what lessons Taiwan is picking up from this David-kicking-Goliath's-ass example. Maybe "hunker down, shoot down missiles, and zero in on the beaches"?

And just as important, what does Beijing see in terms of international response? A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would certainly disrupt their own economy. Xi too is relying upon a swelling economy to secure his place in power.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 4, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> And just as important, what does Beijing see in terms of international response?


I expect the West’s united response and its enthusiasm for killing Russians while demonstrably neutering Moscow’s nuclear deterrence, is giving Xi pause.









Xi Looks Away From Putin Toward West in World Stage Return


Turns out Chinese President Xi Jinping’s partnership with Vladimir Putin has limits after all: He doesn’t want to follow the Russian leader into diplomatic isolation.




www.bloomberg.com







archive.ph

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 4, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I expect the West’s united response and its enthusiasm for killing Russians, demonstrably neutering Moscow’s nuclear deterrence, is giving Xi pause.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Xi wants to use Russia's Ukraine invasion in order to catapult his own country higher. He doesn't, however, want to repeat Russia's mistakes. That's why the sanctions matter.

I suspect that the longer the war goes in Ukraine, the happier Xi will be. I don't think he will squander that advantage with a military invasion of Taiwan.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 4, 2022)

The Chinese rhetoric is that Taiwan "belongs to China" but to any student of history, facts show the exact opposite.

No matter how hard the CCP spins it, China has seen how Russia's spin on Ukraine "belonging to Russia" failed.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 5, 2022)

The US also has 18 MNNA's (Major non Nato allies) which includes Australia and Japan. Defence and military equipment development/access
are among the benefits of this designation.

Taiwan is a special case it is to be treated as such by the US without formal designation being made.

China has a tightrope to walk here as any belligerence toward a designated MNNA in order to bully their way to a clear
shot at Taiwan could trigger reserve supplies of equipment from the US to the MNNA member and can include anything
- even depleted uranium rounds.

As Taiwan is to be treated the same US equipment can also be sent there with no delays.

As to China and it's economy - there is a lot of talk about a downturn due to Covid restrictions but the major factor is the exodus
of foreign companies, every type from tech giants, clothing and furniture manufacturers to ship builders. There is an economic shift going
on which will benefit other countries and lower Chinas ability to buy into other countries.

Taiwan is also a long way ahead of China in the area of semi conductors. To control more of the tech industry China needs to be a major 
player in that area. They have never managed to get more than 5% of that market with Taiwan having 65%and a big advantage in
quality / innovation.

I have been wondering whether Ukraine has a lot Russia wants in some areas rather than just the prestige of ownership.

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## GTX (Dec 5, 2022)

Taiwan is more likely to be a naval blockade situation which brings a different military spin compared to the Ukraine. The main lesson the Chinese would have learnt from Ukraine would be how the West’s (and especially the public’s) resolve has hardened behind Ukraine. That said, they will also have learnt the same lessons as Russia in that the war may still be won (lost for Ukraine) if one can stab them in the back using useful idiots/fellow travellers in places like the USA and elsewhere.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 5, 2022)

More evidence that smoking kills?









Ukraine war: Russian military airfields hit by explosions


Three people are killed by explosions at the airfields, which Russia blames on Ukrainian drones.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Dec 5, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges resilience as Ukraine races to restore power during winter


Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is urging Ukrainians to be strong in resisting the rigours of winter, as officials press ahead with efforts to restore power and services knocked out by Russian air strikes.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 5, 2022)

Fighting in Ukraine running at a 'reduced tempo', US intelligence chief says


The head of US intelligence says fighting in Russia's war in Ukraine is running at a "reduced tempo" and suggests Ukrainian forces could have brighter prospects in coming months.




www.abc.net.au

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## Zipper730 (Dec 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Is it just me or is this another example of Putin not recognizing the law of unintended consequences? Putting an extra 23,000 men--and, worse,conviced criminals--into Prigozhin's private army doesn't seem like a smart move to me.


Unless they figure that the best way of committing war-crimes is to get people who've already committed crimes. They've already been trying to kill off the non-Russian population in the Ukraine with the idea that, if they do it enough, they'll be left with enough Russians who will probably accept annexation.

Updated (12/9): The idea of using convicted criminals is not unique in Russian/Soviet history. Stalin did this in WWII using prisoners from Gulags to fight the Germans (as an interesting note, after the war was over, they did not get their freedom, but were sent right back to the Gulags -- something a lot of people viewed as the inhumanity of the Soviet system)



Greg Boeser said:


> If their nuke program is run with the same level of integrity and efficiency as the rest of the military....


I have trouble believing they would ever do anything that would undermine the effectiveness of their nuclear weapons program. I agree with 

 Thumpalumpacus
that a more serious problem would be the weapons finding their way into extremist groups should Russia fall.



XBe02Drvr said:


> Maybe the worldwide exposure to electronically simulated reality has fueled an addiction to alternate reality and a blurring of true reality


That is a seriously disturbing possibility: Look at how many people walk around texting without paying basic attention to their surroundings (While I own an iPhone, I almost never use it. I do carry a flip-phone on me when I go outside as a general rule, but I don't usually make that many calls with it, and most last around a minute -- the NSA probably can attest to this j/k).

As for Putin, I don't think that's the case, I think it's more hubris than anything else. Most people like him end up often doing themselves in that way (our global banking elites seem to be almost immune to this for reasons that remain unseen) and, while that's good, they often take out lots of innocent people with them when hubris finally takes over.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 5, 2022)

The Unkillable Bomber Regiment: Ukraine Is Restoring More Old Su-24s Than Russia Can Shoot Down


For supporters of Ukraine’s war-weary air force, it was a beautiful sight: four of the air force’s swing-wing Su-24 bombers flying in formation over Ukraine on or around Oct. 30.




www.forbes.com





Meanwhile

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> More evidence that smoking kills?
> 
> 
> 
> ...

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 5, 2022)

Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production boost as Ukraine drains stocks


But its plan for a ramp up in production hinges on Congress.




www.defensenews.com




vs








U.S. intel chief says Russia is using up ammunition in Ukraine faster than it can replace it


Putin has been “surprised” at the lackluster performance of his military, but his political objectives for the war have not changed, the intelligence director said




www.nbcnews.com

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A short thread on the Gepard in Ukraine



Video evidence that gepard is performing well.

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## tomo pauk (Dec 5, 2022)

Excellent footage there 

Another footage, this time a big missile hitting the Ka 52 from above:

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 5, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I have been wondering whether Ukraine has a lot Russia wants in some areas rather than just the prestige of ownership.


In addition to being very productive agriculturally, Ukraine is rich in natural gas and minerals, much of which has only recently been discovered. Russia's pre-war thinking was that we can't have Ukraine cutting into our otherwise monopoly of pipelines to Europe. 

If Ukraine is ever made a member of the EU the potential economic, resource and industrial power of Ukraine may rattle some of the established EU powers. Assuming a pre-war population of close to 44 million people, only Germany, France, Italy and Spain will have more people. The demographics would shift Poland and the other EU members down the list. Same goes for potential NATO membership, Ukraine would bring the largest army in continental Europe, rattling some egos.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 5, 2022)

Good video on how the AFU trained on the Gepard.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 5, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Dec 5, 2022)

Good summary here.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 5, 2022)

at6 said:


> With myth of reprisals for the bridge blast now blown away, Finish destroying the damn bridge already.


Today would have been ideal.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 5, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I have been wondering whether Ukraine has a lot Russia wants in some areas rather than just the prestige of ownership.


I think a lot of it has to do with jealousy. Could Putin allow a successful western style democracy, from a former Soviet republic, flourish on Russia's doorstep? A nation that in Russia's eyes is Russia?

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## GrauGeist (Dec 5, 2022)

Poland seems to be doing ok.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 5, 2022)

Poland is next.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 5, 2022)

I'd actually pay money to see Russia go after Finland.

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## fubar57 (Dec 5, 2022)

Finnish soldier hearing Finland is next

​

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 5, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I have been wondering whether Ukraine has a lot Russia wants in some areas rather than just the prestige of ownership.



Titanium, uranium, natural gas, coal, and iron, to be specific. Prestige/recovering the empire still has a lot to do with it, I suspect, but Ukraine is resource-rich as well. 

And that's not counting the fertility of the earth there, which is a resource that can not only be monetized but also keep Russian citizens quiescent. Hungry people trend towards revolutionary activity and Putin wants none of that. Cheap wheat can help keep the bread-lines down.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'd actually pay money to see Russia go after Finland.



There's a democracy on Russia's doorstep that was once part of Imperial Russia. But I think Russia's got too many irons in the fire as it is. I doubt even Vlad the Inhaler wants anything to do with a Finnish scrap.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 5, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> There's a democracy on Russia's doorstep that was once part of Imperial Russia. But I think Russia's got too many irons in the fire as it is. I doubt even Vlad the Inhaler wants anything to do with a Finnish scrap.



I'll bring the popcorn if Putler tries to take on Finland.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 5, 2022)

Vlad did state that if Finland joined NATO, there would be dire consequences.

And here I was going: "yes!! please do it! please, please, please!!!"

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 5, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> I'll bring the popcorn if Putler tries to take on Finland.



Nachos would go better with the beer I'll be bringing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 5, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Vlad did state that if Finland joined NATO, there would be dire consequences.



"I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house down"? That threat?

<snort>

The guy's a blowhard. He forgot to pack a lunch for Ukraine.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 5, 2022)

Actually, Vladolph was being a bit prophetic.

Yes, there would certainly be dire consequences.

However, he failed to mention that it wasn't going to be dire for Finland...

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## at6 (Dec 5, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> EU citizens freezing to death ..... oh, wait ...



Prepare to see stacks of Putinsicles in Moscow.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 6, 2022)

_KYIV/NOVOSOFIIVKA, Ukraine, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A third Russian airfield was ablaze on Tuesday from a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian air space with attacks on two Russian air bases.

Officials in the Russian city of Kursk, located closer to Ukraine, released pictures of black smoke above an airfield in the early morning hours of Tuesday after the latest strike. The governor said an oil storage tank there had been set ablaze but there were no casualties.

It came a day after Russia confirmed it had been hit by what it said were Soviet-era drones - at Engels air base, home to Russia's fleet of giant strategic bombers, and in Ryazan, just a few hours drive from Moscow. Kyiv did not directly claim responsibility for the strikes but celebrated them.

[...]

The New York Times, citing a senior Ukrainian official, said the drones involved in Monday's attacks were launched from Ukrainian territory, and at least one of the strikes was made with the help of special forces close to the base.

[...]

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych went further, noting that Engels was the only base Russia has that is fully equipped for the giant bombers which Russia has used in attacks on Ukraine.

"They will try to disperse (strategic aircraft) to airfields, but all this complicates the operation against Ukraine. Yesterday, thanks to their unsuccessful smoking, we achieved a very big result," he said._









Ukrainian long-range drone attacks expose Russian air defences


A third Russian airfield was ablaze on Tuesday from a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian air space with attacks on two Russian air bases.




www.reuters.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

> ☝️ Ukraine appears to expose Russian air defence gaps with long-range strikes


Right now there is someone senior in the Russia military exclaiming:

«Я говорил вам, что использовать наши ограниченные запасы зенитно-ракетных комплексов для наземных атак на Украине — плохая идея. Почему ты хочешь, чтобы я выглянул в окно?

_ “I told you it wasn‘t a good idea to use our limited supply of air defence missiles for ground attack in Ukraine. Why do you want me to look out the window?”_

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## Frog (Dec 6, 2022)

These Ukrainians are strong : they hit russian airflieds with soviet era drones that even the Russians cannot intercept.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 6, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV/NOVOSOFIIVKA, Ukraine, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A third Russian airfield was ablaze on Tuesday from a drone strike, a day after Ukraine demonstrated an apparent new ability to penetrate hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian air space with attacks on two Russian air bases.
> 
> Officials in the Russian city of Kursk, located closer to Ukraine, released pictures of black smoke above an airfield in the early morning hours of Tuesday after the latest strike. The governor said an oil storage tank there had been set ablaze but there were no casualties.
> 
> ...


I clicked on one of the linked stories. President Zelenskyy visited troops in Eastern Donetsk. I think I read somewhere that putler will be visiting his troops. I believe Thursday?
I guess there will be one less putler body double. Then putler can flee to that African nation where Vladolph stashed his gold. Be funny if the loot wasn't there when he arrives.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

Frog said:


> These Ukrainians are strong : they hit russian airflieds with soviet era drones that even the Russians cannot intercept.


The whole Russian military has a Potemkin feel to it.

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## ThomasP (Dec 6, 2022)

Interesting bit of info:

"Румунія розпочала експорт газу до Молдови"


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

I like the blue/yellow "friend" paint on the lower surfaces.



You have to assume colour blindness is not a big issue within the AFU.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 6, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Good summary here.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 6, 2022)

Is it just me or do these things look like he should be piloting one.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 6, 2022)

Thunderbirds are GO!

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 6, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


>



These refurbed cruise missile from Ukraine are supposed to have a sizable warhead. The damage looks too small.

What these Russian airplanes really need is some cluster bomblets.

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## ThomasP (Dec 6, 2022)

The Tu-95 at the upper-right in the top picture is not looking too good either. Both outer wing sections missing and sitting low on the starboard side. The outer wing sections look torn off, with burn marks on the left wing at least.


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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 6, 2022)

Maybe I'm missing something.
Are they really hollow? Like the rest of the Russian military?

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

Nice vid on the Czech updates to the T-72. Check out the conditions the tanks start in when received at 1:45. They mention the tanks are being bought from around the world, which suggests someone is scouring Africa, the Middle East and maybe India for old T-72s.



I wonder if any of the captured T-72 from Russia are sent to this facility. I can just imagine some low level NATO clerk assigned to reading through the AFV for sale ads.






Mortar - T 72


T 72 military and army vehicles and spare parts for sale Price on demand




mortarinvestments.eu













T – 72 for SALE - ARMORED VEHICLES - HARTFORD


HARTFORD Universal Group Ltd. Offers Supply and Deliver Main battle tanks T - 72 Condition after major overhaul. Top Quality - For Sale




www.universal-dsg.com










Tracked vehicles | EXARMYVEHICLES.com


Exarmyvehicles.com - sale of military vehicles for private collectors. Tanks, APC, BMP and more for sale.




www.exarmyvehicles.com













Military Vehicles For Sale - Tanks, CVR(T), FV432, Chieftain Tank


Military Vehicles For Sale include British surplus CVR(T), Land Rovers, Chieftain Tank, Ferret, Stolly & Russian Self Propelled Guns. We sell deactived Guns




tanks-alot.co.uk










Armour and Tracked Military Vehicles For Sale – MILWEB Classifieds


Classifieds: Military vehicle, militaria, jeeps, tanks and armored vehicles.



www.milweb.net

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## SaparotRob (Dec 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The Tu-95 at the upper-right in the top picture is not looking too good either. Both outer wing sections missing and sitting low on the starboard side. The outer wing sections look torn off, with burn marks on the left wing at least.


It looks to me like it's been used for parts. Aren't the scorch marks years of oil leaks and start up marks?

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 6, 2022)

Right answer to Macron

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## cammerjeff (Dec 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The Tu-95 at the upper-right in the top picture is not looking too good either. Both outer wing sections missing and sitting low on the starboard side. The outer wing sections look torn off, with burn marks on the left wing at least.


I agree it looks like it is being used for parts to me (the one on the upper right) it is also missing at least 3 of 4 engines IMO


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## Dimlee (Dec 6, 2022)

"Army Secretary Christine Wormuth separately told reporters that the U.S. will go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025."...
"We are in a position to support Ukraine, but it's more the mid and long term," Bush said. "By creating this capacity ... if this war goes three or four years, we'll be in a position to just vastly outproduce the Russians all by ourselves ― and if you combine that with our allies, then we're just dwarfing their capability. They won't be able to keep up."








Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production boost as Ukraine drains stocks


But its plan for a ramp up in production hinges on Congress.




www.defensenews.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 6, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> The Tu-95 at the upper-right in the top picture is not looking too good either. Both outer wing sections missing and sitting low on the starboard side. The outer wing sections look torn off, with burn marks on the left wing at least.



The same plane's vert stab looks like it stopped something too. Left outer wing section shows signs of violent removal, as you note.


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## SaparotRob (Dec 6, 2022)

You got better eyes than me.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 6, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You got better eyes than me.



I opened the pic in a new tab and it was ginormous. Nothing to do with my eyes, amigo.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 6, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> "Army Secretary Christine Wormuth separately told reporters that the U.S. will go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025."...


Aren’t the Ukrainians firing 10,000 shells a week? While much better than the Euros or us inept Canadians, but what war was the US planning to fight at these paltry outputs?


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## SaparotRob (Dec 6, 2022)

The wrong one?


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## wlewisiii (Dec 6, 2022)

IIUC, we still have stocks from Vietnam, though not as many as before the rumbles in the Sandbox.

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## ThomasP (Dec 7, 2022)

A "relatively large" percentage of the 155mm rounds being contracted/produced now are of the various PGM types. One company I am familiar with has just been issued a contract for components needed for 100,000x 155mm PGM type rounds. These rounds are considered to be anywhere from 3x to 20x as effective as unguided rounds in most situations. The latest numbers I have seen say that <2% of the 155mm rounds supplied to Ukraine to date have been PGM types.

Also, the US is currently in the process of purchasing ~100,000x 155mm unguided projectiles from South Korea.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 7, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> A "relatively large" percentage of the 155mm rounds being contracted/produced now are of the various PGM types.


Another good reason to expedite the US semiconductor industry. Relying on Taiwan for the lot is folly.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 7, 2022)

TSMC is already making 5nm chips which puts them ahead of the pack. They will be going to 3 and then 2 over the next few years.

They are already completing a factory in Arizona and have started on another 12 billion dollar premises as well.

Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Apple will be the main customers which will suit the US nicely as these companies are
far and away the worlds leading chip designers.

Design technology is the US strength in this as the manufacturers of semi conductors only fabricate what they are
given. US designers have the best. A good combination which also lowers the threat to any disruption in Taiwan itself would pose.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 7, 2022)

_KYIV, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Russia's ally Belarus said on Wednesday it was moving troops and military hardware to counteract what it called a threat of terrorism, amid signs Moscow could be putting pressure on its loyal client to open a new front in the war against Ukraine.

President Alexander Lukashenko, who relied on Russian troops to put down a popular revolt two years ago, has allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for Russia's invasion of their neighbour, but has so far kept his own army from joining it.

But recent weeks have seen increasing signs of involvement in Belarus from Moscow, culminating on Saturday when Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu flew unannounced to the capital Minsk. He and Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin signed ammendments to the two countries' security cooperation agreement, without disclosing the new terms.

Thousands of Russian troops have been deployed in Belarus since October, Ukraine says, and Belarus authorities have increasingly spoken of a threat of "terrorism" from partisans operating from across the border. Lukashenko has ordered his military to compile information about reservists by the end of this year._









Eyes on Russia's ally Belarus as Ukraine's neighbour moves troops


Russia's ally Belarus said on Wednesday it was moving troops and military hardware to counteract what it called a threat of terrorism, amid signs Moscow could be putting pressure on its loyal client to open a new front in the war against Ukraine.




www.reuters.com





I think this is just an effort to spread the Ukrainians thin by tying down some forces in the north. Lukashenko would be deposed if he enters the war.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 7, 2022)

Russia expelled from yet another international organization


Russia expelled from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC).




ukrainefrontlines.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Russia's ally Belarus said on Wednesday it was moving troops and military hardware to counteract what it called a threat of terrorism, amid signs Moscow could be putting pressure on its loyal client to open a new front in the war against Ukraine._


This reminds me of when Hitler pressed Mussolini to declare war on Russia and send troops. The ARMIR did not do well at all, getting massacred. By the time Italy withdrew from Russia in 1943 they'd lost 114,520 of the original 235,000 soldiers, including their general, Paolo Tarnassi. 

Belarus will do no better, and would be smarter to just wait this out.

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## ARTESH (Dec 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This reminds me of when Hitler pressed Mussolini to declare war on Russia and send troops. The ARMIR did not do well at all, getting massacred. By the time Italy withdrew from Russia in 1943 they'd lost 114,520 of the original 235,000 soldiers, including their general, Paolo Tarnassi.
> 
> Belarus will do no better, and would be smarter to just wait this out.


Not much info on both of them, unfortunately, but I think:

Italy was better prepared and better trained, also more experienced, comparing to Belarus, if we compare population, budget and other things, on respective era...

Germany and Italy, WW2
Belarus and Russia, modern days...

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## ARTESH (Dec 7, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Russia expelled from yet another international organization
> 
> 
> Russia expelled from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC).
> ...


Good news! Sooner or later, putin will put out of action!

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## Dimlee (Dec 7, 2022)

Lurking in the dark... HIMARS The Spooky...

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## GrauGeist (Dec 7, 2022)

I have a feeling that if Lukashenka does order troops into Ukraine, that'll be the end of his presidency.









Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine


Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka




ecfr.eu

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## Dimlee (Dec 7, 2022)

_"The attacks are repeatable. We have no limitation on distance and soon we will be able to reach all targets inside Russia — including in Siberia,"
"The defence adviser, meanwhile, said the drones were neither the Ukroboronprom models nor modified Soviet ones but rather a joint government-private sector initiative that could produce new ones "often"."_

FT article:


archive.ph

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 7, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> _"The attacks are repeatable. We have no limitation on distance and soon we will be able to reach all targets inside Russia — including in Siberia,"_


Then I suggest the Kerch bridge be hit multiple times and irretrievably dropped, this very night.









Crimea bridge: How Russia is rebuilding its vital link


The Kerch bridge is a key route connecting Russia and Crimea and was damaged by an explosion in October.



www.bbc.com





Hit it now and you can kill many of the skilled workmen, further hindering future repair attempts.

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## Glider (Dec 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then I suggest the Kerch bridge be hit multiple times and irretrievably dropped, this very night.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was thinking of trying to hit the crane barge. They are few and far between bases

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## SaparotRob (Dec 7, 2022)

As long as we're taking requests, the Wagner Headquarters in St. Petersburg. It's Vladolph's home town.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This reminds me of when Hitler pressed Mussolini to declare war on Russia and send troops. The ARMIR did not do well at all, getting massacred. By the time Italy withdrew from Russia in 1943 they'd lost 114,520 of the original 235,000 soldiers, including their general, Paolo Tarnassi.
> 
> Belarus will do no better, and would be smarter to just wait this out.



That's a really apt comparison. The phrase "pulling his chestnuts out of the fire" comes to mind. The only reason this dance is happening is because without Putin's support, Lukashenko is on very shaky ground, after his post-election repressions -- just as Mussolini was reliant on Hitler's support to retain office as long as he did; and even after Musso's deposing, when you consider Skorzeny's rescue raid and the subsequent rump Italian fascist state.

Lukashenko is is a very tight spot: follow Kremlin orders and be deposed, or ignore Kremlin orders and lose the only patron he has and face the Belarusian public by himself, and still probably lose office.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Lukashenko is is a very tight spot: follow Kremlin orders and be deposed, or ignore Kremlin orders and lose the only patron he has and face the Belarusian public by himself, and still probably lose office.


Lukashenko has a path. Retire, announce that you‘re passing the torch and call new elections. Hit the beach. He hasn’t hit Ceauşescu levels of unpopularity yet and will survive just fine.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 7, 2022)

There's still alot of people in prison courtesy of Lukashanka's KGB - I'm sure that t wouldn't take much for the people to round him up and give him a neck-tie party.

And with Putin in the process of getting his ass kicked, can't spare many troops to come save his puppet.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 7, 2022)

Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first. 









Putin: Nuclear risk is rising, but we are not mad


The Russian leader insists his country would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a strike.



www.bbc.com





If the risk of nuclear war is rising, what and/or who is stoking the escalation? Is it Ukraine (which doesn't have nuclear weapons)? Is it NATO (which is an avowedly defensive organization)? 

The amount of spin Putin and his cronies can apply makes me wonder if they're secretly cricket aficionados. Their (message) delivery certainly bamboozles me!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Lukashenko has a path. Retire, announce that you‘re passing the torch and call new elections. Hit the beach. He hasn’t hit Ceauşescu levels of unpopularity yet and will survive just fine.



Retirement would presumably weaken his security detail.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Remember, Putin heroically intervened in Ukraine to kill Nazis and stop their biological killing machine.

So of course Ukraine has nukes.
Nazi nukes, delivered by NATO flying saucers going between Kyiv and the secret Nazi base in the Antarctic.

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## Wildcat (Dec 8, 2022)

Another side-effect of Russia's invasion.
Analysis-Vietnam shifts gears on arms trade as it loosens ties with Russia

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The key point in that speech of his was, for me, his acknowledgement that this war could go on for a while. 

If that's the case, he will have to reconstitute the Russian military under the duress of sanctions, and also means at least one if not more conscriptions aside from the usual two per year -- with all that entails in terms of his domestic support.

It's like he's starting to realize the enormity of his mistake, but knows he doesn't have the ability to undo it. It's a change in tone that I think is significant.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 8, 2022)

A long time ago, another lifetime really (2002), we adopted my son from Vietnam.

Given what I saw in that time and place I have no surprise about them dumping Russia. On their best day? They were "not China". Now? They have some serious money from western companies.

South Korea was seriously evil for most of the time we were supporting them over the north. 

Now? 

Not so much. 

Vietnam could be a very similar "tiger".

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 8, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> he's starting to realize the enormity of his mistake, but knows he doesn't have the ability to undo it.


Agreed. It will be bad for Putin when Ukrainian-built suicide drones and missiles start dropping across Russia. It can’t be long before Ukraine strikes SPB or Moscow. How will Putin react then?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. It will be bad for Putin when Ukrainian-built suicide drones and missiles start dropping across Russia. It can’t be long before Ukraine strikes SPB or Moscow. How will Putin react then?



Right, and the people -- how will they react?

As long as Ukraine doesn't attack civilian targets, such a campaign could go a ways to ending Putin's regime, if they indeed can manufacture whatever platform they used in numbers.

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 8, 2022)

And with that said...









Putin Is Preparing to Flee When Russia Implodes, Ex-Aide Says


Sputnik via ReutersRussia’s Vladimir Putin and his cronies already have a plan in place to flee the country once things go sideways, a former aide to the Russian president has claimed.Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, made the astounding claim on Telegram early Wednesday, citing...




news.yahoo.com

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 8, 2022)

Too bad he won't be able to exploit the Vatican's secret pipeline like the Nazi's did. Russians are Orthodox.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 8, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Too bad he won't be able to exploit the Vatican's secret pipeline like the Nazi's did. Russians are Orthodox.


Didn't someone blow up his pipeline ?

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 8, 2022)

FLYBOYJ said:


> And with that said...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Major drug trafficking area, lots of murders and lots of Hotel rooms to fall out of. He should fit right in!!!

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## wlewisiii (Dec 8, 2022)



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## hawkeye2an (Dec 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



They DO have style

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 8, 2022)

UK buys 'several thousand' NLAW anti-tank missiles in $280 million deal with Saab - Breaking Defense


The NLAW system offers protection against main battle tanks that can be targeted at a range up to 800 meters.




breakingdefense.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



Ukrainian cats vs. Orcs.

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## Warspite63 (Dec 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Ukrainian cats vs. Orcs.
> 
> View attachment 697782


That's a farm cat, deployed in an atypical urban environment. The T72 (T80?) is surrendering to him. On the completion of this, he'll go and get his farmer.... with his tractor......

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

Warspite63 said:


> That's a farm cat, deployed in an atypical urban environment. The T72 (T80?) is surrendering to him. On the completion of this, he'll go and get his farmer.... with his tractor......



You can just tell he's a ratter.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 8, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I am becoming convinced that LEO *now* stands for Late and Ever Overdue


There is a glimmer of hope that Germany’s big cats will once again be rolling eastward into Ukraine.



This time for a just cause. Presumably the Ukrainians have been training on the tanks, along with logisticians, supply chain and mechanics. Otherwise nothing has changed and Ukraine would still be waiting until mid-2023 before they get Leos.









U.S. supports transfer of German Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, says Bundestag’s defense committee


The U.S. has made it clear to Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, head of the defense committee of the Bundestag, the German parliament, that it supports Germany transferring Leopard-2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Strack-Zimmerman stated on Twitter on Dec. 7.




news.yahoo.com





I would support a proposal that sees the US this month pickup and send all of Canada’s Leopard 2s to Ukraine via Poland. We don’t need them, and the maintenance and operating expense can go to new systems for the CAF land forces.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There is a glimmer of hope that Germany’s big cats will once again be rolling eastward into Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




A lot of good info in that video aside from the news about the Leos, too. Just holding my breath for the F-16s ... well, okay, maybe not breathless but you get the point.


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## DBII (Dec 8, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> There is a glimmer of hope that Germany’s big cats will once again be rolling eastward into Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm not current on the status of Canada's armor force. Are you talking about getting rid of all the armor units?


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## wlewisiii (Dec 8, 2022)

Eh, I'm sorry but I'll believe it when we see AFU crewed Leopard II's in combat. There are so many logistical issues that people keep ignoring because they like the sound of it. But unless they get everything needed and all the training needed and the manpower for the 4th crewman, it's worse than useless to give them to Ukraine.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Eh, I'm sorry but I'll believe it when we see AFU crewed Leopard II's in combat.


That’s when everyone will believe it. But I remain hopeful that the AFU will have Leo 2s before end of spring 2023.


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## MiTasol (Dec 8, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Putler is likely to detonate a small nuke inside Russia and claim it was sent by the UAF.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 8, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Eh, I'm sorry but I'll believe it when we see AFU crewed Leopard II's in combat. There are so many logistical issues that people keep ignoring because they like the sound of it. But unless they get everything needed and all the training needed and the manpower for the 4th crewman, it's worse than useless to give them to Ukraine.



There's that. I wonder how much has been going on in the background behind this announcement. Might they have been doing training and repple already? I think by now the West has to understand the problem with telegraphing a move.

Not arguing against your valid points, just wondering why we'd announce it to the world before we did it. I'd think that at this stage, after this idea has been floating around for months, it may have been simmering all the while?

Myself, I'd prefer the officials to STFU and let the Russians discover the ugly surprise on the battlefield.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 8, 2022)

We've already seen many examples of Ukraine holding their cards close to their chest which has resulted in many surprises for Russia.

I am not beyond believing that Ukrainians have been training on NATO equipment behind the scenes.

But we'll just have to wait and see what they unleash on the battlefield.

Like the Russians...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am not beyond believing that Ukrainians have been training on NATO equipment behind the scenes.



Thanks, you boiled down my point better than I did.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 9, 2022)

Surprise!









Backfired: Putin’s Prison Recruits Spiral Out of Russia’s Control


They’re finally realizing they’ve been duped.



www.thedailybeast.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Surprise!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Golly. what could go wrong?

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Surprise!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Paywall free version: archive.ph

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Golly. what could go wrong?


It could not know that this was going to happen!

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 9, 2022)

Was US objection originally a barrier? 









US ‘doesn’t object’ to Germany giving Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine


Washington has made it clear to Berlin that it is not opposed to the transfer of Leopard-2 battle tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Kyiv has regularly requested, German newspaper FAZ reported on Dec. 7.




news.yahoo.com





This seems like a strange headline, so now the US doesn't object, did they before? Is this what was holding Scholz back from sending Germany's or anyone else's Leopards to Ukraine?









Scholz Blocks Supply of Tanks for Ukraine | KyivPost


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to block billions of dollars of tank supplies to Ukraine despite talks with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal that...




www.kyivpost.com





_"The German newspaper notes that Germany will not supply Ukraine with tanks until the United States does so." _

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> It could not know that this was going to happen!



You're right - impossible to foresee.

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## Zipper730 (Dec 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> What these Russian airplanes really need is some cluster bomblets.


I'm surprised they haven't done that to be honest. I remember reading about the war in Afghanistan how the USSR deployed cluster munitions designed to look like toys so they would kill and maim children with the idea that it'd demoralize and tie-up the population having to take care of all the wounded children.



buffnut453 said:


> Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.


Do you think he'll create a false-flag to justify a nuclear "retaliation"?



Thumpalumpacus said:


> As long as Ukraine doesn't attack civilian targets, such a campaign could go a ways to ending Putin's regime, if they indeed can manufacture whatever platform they used in numbers.


I agree, the war in Russia is extremely unpopular and factories seem to be periodically going up in smoke now and then. If the Ukrainians targeted civilians the Russian population would rally around their government to protect them and escalate retaliation.

While this is going to go very bleak: What do you think the odds are of CBRN being used if the Russians start taking significant losses to their own military bases?


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## GrauGeist (Dec 9, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> While this is going to go very bleak: What do you think the odds are of CBRN being used if the Russians start taking significant losses to their own military bases?


Several nations (US, UK, etc) have warned Russia that there will be swift and serious consequences if they do.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> While this is going to go very bleak: What do you think the odds are of CBRN being used if the Russians start taking significant losses to their own military bases?



My own opinion -- and it's worth every penny you've paid for it, lol -- is that chemical and biological weapons are more likely than any resort to nuclear weaponry, because they're perhaps in Putin's mind more deniable. I don't think there's a big chance of any resort to WMDs, though; Putin knows that will pull NATO into the fray -- and that's his ass.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 9, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> While this is going to go very bleak: What do you think the odds are of CBRN being used if the Russians start taking significant losses to their own military bases?


I think there's no chance of any WMD being used, I do wonder what is Putin's next move? His troops are clearly unable to take any more land, and the Ukrainians are clearly preparing their big spring offensives.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think there's no chance of any WMD being used, I do wonder what is Putin's next move? His troops are clearly unable to take any more land, and the Ukrainians are clearly preparing their big spring offensives.



I'm not sure they'll wait until spring, if the weather cooperates by freezing the ground. I know I wouldn't.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm not sure they'll wait until spring, if the weather cooperates by freezing the ground. I know I wouldn't.


True, good point. Assuming the AFU can obtain sufficient arms and ammunition. I’ve read that their M777 howitzers are, for example being shipped to Poland for desperately needed barrel replacements. Considering the Ukrainians are using these howitzers at a rate seemingly never considered by its designers and NATO owners, I wonder if replacement barrels are readily available. There’s also a shortage of artillery shells and projectiles for the various MRLS.

When the AFU launches their winter/spring offensive presumably toward Melitopol, it needs to be well prepared, big and fast, a _blyskavka bula_ that rolls over the enemy enmass.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> True, good point. Assuming the AFU can obtain sufficient arms and ammunition. I’ve read that their M777 howitzers are, for example being shipped to Poland for desperately needed barrel replacements. Considering the Ukrainians are using these howitzers at a rate seemingly never considered by its designers and NATO owners, I wonder if replacement barrels are readily available. There’s also a shortage of artillery shells and projectiles for the various MRLS.
> 
> When the AFU launches their winter/spring offensive presumably toward Melitopol, it needs to be well prepared, big and fast, a _blyskavka bula_ that rolls over the enemy enmass.



Barrel-wear is definitely an issue. In another shadow from WWI, this war is largely an artillery war. American ammo production is ramping up as we write, with the goal of tripling ammo production in the next three years. I'm not sure, but I'd imagine that production of barrel-liners as well is being pushed. There's a lot of money going into this, already approved by the Congress, and it doesn't seem wise to build a buttload of shells when the tubes are worn out.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 9, 2022)

M777 barrels are rated at around 2,500 rounds before barrel wear is too great. Fatigue life is longer but replacing barrels
before the fatigue life is reached is what is aimed for since fatigue can have catastrophic results.

Many barrels are chrome plated to help with wear but with the higher pressures being used in modern artillery the limits
can be reached in a relatively short time.

Russian artillery has a lower barrel life (have seen figures of 1,500 rounds) and is prone to 'accidents' due to higher velocity
charges being used so the M777 is pretty good as far as barrel life goes.

At 5 rounds per minute that gives the M777 barrel life at 8 hours 20 minutes. Doesn't seem much but that's a lot of firing.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> M777 barrels are rated at around 2,500 rounds before barrel wear is too great.



So about three hours of Ukrainian work?


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## WARSPITER (Dec 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> So about three hours of Ukrainian work?


Are they on daylight saving ?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Are they on daylight saving ?



Nah, they're on ammo expenditure.

I mean, _ a lot_ of ammo expenditure.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 9, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Nah, they're on ammo expenditure.
> 
> I mean, _ a lot_ of ammo expenditure.


It is a lot At 10.8 kilos of TNT per HE round 2500 rounds per barrel is well over 25 tons.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 9, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> It is a lot At 10.8 kilos of TNT per HE round 2500 rounds per barrel is well over 25 tons.



It was a joke.


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## WARSPITER (Dec 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It was a joke.


I know. And it was better than a standard joke as it was also correct.

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## Glider (Dec 10, 2022)

This made me feel very humble








His MiG-29 In Flames, Blood Pouring Down His Face, This Ukrainian Pilot Still Managed To Snap A Selfie


Ejecting from his ruined MiG following a daring nighttime battle with Russian drones, Vadym Voroshylov floated toward the ground, blood streaming from a head wound. He flashed a thumbs-up ... and snapped a selfie.




www.forbes.com

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## Denniss (Dec 10, 2022)

His callsign Karaya - is he a Hartmann fan?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> I know. And it was better than a standard joke as it was also correct.



You're too kind ... a joke that needs explaining is a stinker.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

_UNITED NATIONS, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Russia is attempting to obtain more weapons from Iran, including hundreds of ballistic missiles, and offering Tehran an unprecedented level of military and technical support in return, Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said on Friday.
Since August Iran has transferred hundreds of drones - also known as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - to Russia, which had used them to "kill civilians and illegally target civilian infrastructure" in Ukraine, Woodward said.

"Russia is now attempting to obtain more weapons, including hundreds of ballistic missiles," Woodward told reporters.

"In return, Russia is offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support. We're concerned that Russia intends to provide Iran with more advanced military components, which will allow Iran to strengthen their weapons capability," she said.

She also said Britain was "almost certain that Russia is seeking to source weaponry from North Korea (and) other heavily sanctioned states, as their own stocks palpably dwindle."_









Russia trying to get ballistic missiles from Iran, says Britain


Russia is attempting to obtain more weapons from Iran, including hundreds of ballistic missiles, and offering Tehran an unprecedented level of military and technical support in return, Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said on Friday.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Dec 10, 2022)

Glider said:


> This made me feel very humble
> 
> 
> 
> ...


See here too:

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## GTX (Dec 10, 2022)

Russian Airfield Attacks: Ukraine Strikes Back


The Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases will have a strategic impact




mickryan.substack.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 10, 2022)

The Tu-141 reminds me of the Colonial Viper from Battlestar Galactica.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _UNITED NATIONS, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Russia is attempting to obtain more weapons from Iran, including hundreds of ballistic missiles, and offering Tehran an unprecedented level of military and technical support in return, Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward said on Friday._


Sounds like it’s time for a naval and air blockade of Iran? Ukraine aside, it’s only a matter of time before, in a middle finger to the World, Russia assists in Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 10, 2022)

Denniss said:


> His callsign Karaya - is he a Hartmann fan?


I thought the same.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sounds like it’s time for a naval and air blockade of Iran? Ukraine aside, it’s only a matter of time before, in a middle finger to the World, Russia assists in Iran’s nuclear weapons program.



Right, but I'm not sure how useful that would be, with Iran sharing borders with Pakistan and Iraq. Keep in mind as well that a blockade is an act of war.

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## Dimlee (Dec 10, 2022)

_"...Pentagon officials have made it clear that requests from Kyiv for longer-range US weapons, including rockets and fighter bombers which could be used for even more effective strikes inside Russia or occupied Crimea, are being seriously considered.
"Nothing is off the table," a senior US defence official said."_



https://archive.vn/THWT2#selection-1065.168-1069.62

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but I'm not sure how useful that would be, with Iran sharing borders with Pakistan and Iraq. Keep in mind as well that a blockade is an act of war.


War with Iran may be likely this decade.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> See here too:



Give this man a F-16.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> War with Iran may be likely this decade.



Maybe, but I'm doubtful. But to my point, blockading a nation that has landward sources for imports is pretty tough. The big benefit would be blocking Iranian crude-oil exports and thus starving the regime of cash, but that too can be worked-around by the Iranians selling Russia drones, missiles, etc. I'm not knowledgeable about land pipelines heading out of Iran, but if there are any, they too can be used to work around Western blockade.


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## at6 (Dec 10, 2022)

Speaking of Hartmann, what ever happened to forum member Hartmann52 after he joined in the fight against Orcs and Orc lovers?


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## Dimlee (Dec 10, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> I thought the same.


With English subtitles.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> With English subtitles.



I’m married to an Ukrainian-Canadian, so I’m a little biased, but god these are a good, humble people. Here they are sitting around the kitchen table sharing a cuppa with their pilot and news media. And this pilot is telling us what Ukraine needs, F-16s or equivalent. What do our pilots here say, does he needs more than a month’s intensive training to get up to speed?

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## GTX (Dec 10, 2022)

Worse Than WWII Soviet Weapons! Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Lambast’ Another European System For Ineffective Performance


Several European countries have been shipping weaponry to Ukraine to support the country’s resistance against Russian invasion. While most of this weaponry has supported Kyiv’s war effort, some have garnered harsh criticism for their poor performance. In particular, the Mod63 120mm mortar...




eurasiantimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## SaparotRob (Dec 10, 2022)

GTX said:


> Worse Than WWII Soviet Weapons! Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Lambast’ Another European System For Ineffective Performance
> 
> 
> Several European countries have been shipping weaponry to Ukraine to support the country’s resistance against Russian invasion. While most of this weaponry has supported Kyiv’s war effort, some have garnered harsh criticism for their poor performance. In particular, the Mod63 120mm mortar...
> ...


Very informative article. Who would have ever thought the PZH 2000 would be used in a war?


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## Denniss (Dec 10, 2022)

It was obviously not designed for round the clock firing

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Very informative article. Who would have ever thought the PZH 2000 would be used in a war?



Rob, if you have the spare piasters, grab a book called _Soul of the Sword_, by Robert L O'Connell. It's a history of weaponry in warfare, and one aspect it touches upon is how often weapons aren't necessarily designed to be the most efficient, but the most overawing.

It's one of the better reads on weaponry I've set eyes on, because it addresses the psychological impact the weapons have. Like all books it is flawed -- its main flaw is oversimplification -- but it is still insightful.

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## ThomasP (Dec 10, 2022)

Some interesting info re Switzerland relations with Russia:

"Swiss have frozen $8 bln in financial assets under Russia sanctions"

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Very informative article. Who would have ever thought the PZH 2000 would be used in a war?


It seems that much of the NATO kit was not designed to be used outside of the parade ground and occasional, constrained exercises. Anything that shoots or rolls is going to wear out, but then you need to have a ready supply of maintenance support and replacement parts.

I wonder how many of the artillery and vehicles provided to Ukraine are currently out of service due to lack of spares or essential maintenance. In advance of the Battle of Kursk, of Germany’s 184 Panthers, after one day only about forty were operational due to breakdowns. Reliability is essential.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 10, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It seems that much of the NATO kit was not designed to be used outside of the parade ground and occasional, constrained exercises. Anything that shoots or rolls is going to wear out, but then you need to have a ready supply of maintenance support and replacement parts.
> 
> I wonder how many of the artillery and vehicles provided to Ukraine are currently out of service due to lack of spares or essential maintenance. In advance of the Battle of Kursk, of Germany’s 184 Panthers, after one day only about forty were operational due to breakdowns. Reliability is essential.



No, what was expected was a war measured in days that would end with a nuclear exchange. When I was in the 1st Armored Division in Germany in 1984 we were expected to be a speed bump at best.

That or a war essentially like the colonial wars we've fought since the end of WWII where our ability to swap broken gear out made their long-term use unlikely. None of the wars in the sandbox had the sustained rates of fire that AFU has needed. It does not surprise me that they are wearing out their artillery faster than we would have anticipated given the difference in usage patterns.

This is also one of the many reasons no one is in a rush to give them modern western tanks either.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> This is also one of the many reasons no one is in a rush to give them modern western tanks either.


Good point. The best approach then is to give Ukraine ALL the western tanks, spares and maintenance tools they need to smash the Russians in one big concentrated offensive, presumably on Melitopol, rather than in penny packets.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 10, 2022)

I saw this noted on another website: 


> The usual goal in many things, including military munitions, is to use up the oldest stocks first. If the Russians have the discipline to do this, the data below is that they are running out of missiles. If the Russians are not using up their oldest missiles first, the data below doesn't tell us much

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## SaparotRob (Dec 10, 2022)

Okay, Chancellor Scholz won’t send tanks to Ukraine until the U.S. does. Screw it! We find 88 older M-1s and send them. We’ll need transporters and a crap load of diesel (and that’s just for the transporters). Just drive them across the Polish border. Something something Budapest Memorandum. Dump them and high-tail it back. Okay Germany, we sent tanks. 
Simple mind, simple solution.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Okay, Chancellor Scholz won’t send tanks to Ukraine until the U.S. does.


Ukraine doesn’t need Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks, but only German support for Polish and other country’s Leopard 2 provided to Ukraine. I wonder if Merkel would have been more obstructionist?


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 10, 2022)

Germany's got an energy crunch going on, which makes it hard to spool up factories.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 10, 2022)

Great, send M1s and Leopards to Ukraine right now and they'll be ready for combat in about 6 months.

It takes roughly 22 weeks to train an M1 crew...


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Great, send M1s and Leopards to Ukraine right now and they'll be ready for combat in about 6 months.


I’m hoping that Ukraine’s been training already. If not, you’re right and we’ll see the Leos roll sometime after July 2023. Forget the Abrams.


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## SaparotRob (Dec 10, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Great, send M1s and Leopards to Ukraine right now and they'll be ready for combat in about 6 months.
> 
> It takes roughly 22 weeks to train an M1 crew...


Nope, just dump them there. Use as training mules, paper weights, whatever. Basically it's "put up or shut up" re: the Leopards. Like we don't have M-1s scheduled for retirement. 
I wasn't being all that serious.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 10, 2022)

Something I haven't heard mention of during this war, is Ukrain's own tank, the Oplot-M.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Something I haven't heard mention of during this war, is Ukrain's own tank, the Oplot-M.


Good question, where are they?









Oplot-M Main Battle Tank (MBT)


The Oplot-M main battle tank (MBT) was designed and developed by Kharkiv Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau (KMDB) for the…




www.army-technology.com





I assume the Kharkiv plant isn’t making anymore.


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## WARSPITER (Dec 11, 2022)

At last count Ukraine had about six.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> At last count Ukraine had about six.


Weren’t they mostly sold to Thailand?









List of equipment of the Royal Thai Army - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





I remember reading how Soviet-era ineptitude and lack of funding in production was prevalent across much of recently-independent Ukraine back then. Here’s the Kharkiv factory from five or so years ago - clearly this place was not making much of anything.



Look for the cats playing around a static production line at 0:15.



The Ukraine that emerges from this war must become something it never was, a westernized, modern economy with controls on corruption, a strong bureaucracy, etc.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 11, 2022)

Thailand cancelled their orders for the Oplot in 2017 after problems with manufacture arose due to the turmoil of 2014. Thailand 
received from 15 to 20 vehicles depending on the source. Another order (around 100) went to China.

Ukraine originally kept 10 for testing and so on but that was about it. There was even a model built to house a NATO gun platform
which was demonstrated in Turkey.

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## GTX (Dec 11, 2022)

Super-Upgraded M-55S Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine

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## GTX (Dec 11, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelensky Is TIME's 2022 Person of the Year


Volodymyr Zelensky’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious




time.com

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## Glider (Dec 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> View attachment 698090
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I admit that my firt thought was that this would really really piss Trump off

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 11, 2022)

_
KYIV, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Ukraine attacked occupied Melitopol in the country's southeast on Saturday evening, the Russian-installed and exiled Ukrainian authorities of the strategically located city said.

The pro-Moscow authorities said a missile attack killed two people and wounded 10, while the exiled mayor said scores of "invaders" were killed.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports of the attacks or deaths.

"Air defence systems destroyed two missiles, four reached their targets," Yevgeny Balitsky, the Moscow-appointed governor of the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region, said on the Telegram messaging app._









Ukraine attacks occupied Melitopol, Russian side says two killed


Ukraine attacked occupied Melitopol in the country's southeast on Saturday evening, the Russian-installed and exiled Ukrainian authorities of the strategically located city said.




www.reuters.com





I wonder if this isn't the start of softening-up in preparation for another offensive once the ground freezes.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 11, 2022)

My first thought was wondering why wasn't any Ukrainian cats included in the photo montage?

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

GTX said:


> Super-Upgraded M-55S Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine


The 105mm rifle L7 was replaced by NATO 120 mm rifled (British) and smoothbore (everyone else) guns due to concerns that the L7 would not reliably penetrate the T-72 armour. I wonder what ammunition the M55 has. During GW1 were the Abrams that faced Iraq’s T-72s armed with the 105mm or 120mm?

Given their upgrades to semi NATO spec and four man crews with manual loading, the M55 is a good training tank for future Leopard or similar crews.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> The 105mm rifle L7 was replaced by NATO 120 mm rifled (British) and smoothbore (everyone else) guns due to concerns that the L7 would not reliably penetrate the T-72 armour. I wonder what ammunition the M55 has. During GW1 were the Abrams that faced Iraq’s T-72s armed with the 105mm or 120mm?



120mm, except perhaps any Marine M1s?


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## GTX (Dec 11, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

GTX said:


>



Isn’t this was last week rather than the recent attack on Melitopol_?_


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## GrauGeist (Dec 11, 2022)

The airbase at Ryazan is about 115 miles south of Moscow.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 11, 2022)

As far as I know only 120mm Abrams went into action in the Gulf War with some 105 models in reserve.

This makes sense given the time frame.

The 105 used in the Centurion and M60 tanks was countered by the Soviets in the T-62 tank being fitted with a 115mm gun.
Although the 105 could defeat the T-62/64/early 72 armour the 120mm gun was developed so it could take advantage
of different types of rounds and still ensure a high percentage of kills against later opposition.

British tanks used HESH rounds (squash head rounds) so rifling was ok.

APFSDS (fin stabilised discarding sabot) rounds were better if they didn't rotate so smoothbore was best for them - the fins
stabilised the round in the air anyway.

HEAT rounds needed a bigger diameter barrel because they have an internally shaped charge - the bigger the diameter the better.
Heat rounds suffer badly from rotation as on impact this skews the effect of the shaped charge and lowers it's ability to
penetrate.

The smoothbore also meant larger charges to increase velocity as the chrome coating helped the round slide out of the barrel. This
in turn gives better ranges and less wear although smoothbore barrels still wear over time.

Soviet tanks then went to the 125mm with the T-72 but from there it all becomes a matter of ammunition rather than barrel diameter.
For example, the 125 barrel was made thinner than the 120 since the T-72 and on are more of a medium tank with a big gun rather
than a full blown MBT like an Abrams. Replacment time for an Abrams barrel is around 1500 rounds. By then accuracy is unacceptable.
For the 125 because of it's lighter construction - 250 rounds before it is no longer accurate. A big difference.

Everything possible had to be done to keep the weight down on soviet designs and it has shown in conflicts
where soviet era tanks have come up against modern Western types.

There. Now I've run out of stuff so I'll stop.

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## Glider (Dec 11, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> As far as I know only 120mm Abrams went into action in the Gulf War with some 105 models in reserve.
> 
> This makes sense given the time frame.
> 
> ...


Good information. If I remember correctly to get the best of both worlds, the French AMX30 105 had a rifled barrel but the external shell effectively had ball bearing, so the actual projectile didn't rotate, whilst the outside did. Problem being that it made the ammunition very expensive

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

The article above on the M55 also mentions a shortage of 115 mm ammo for the captured T-62s, a gun Ukraine hasn’t used since the 1990s. If ammo can’t be found, what other use can be made of the captured T-62s?

There’s the Bulgarian TV-62 armoured recovery vehicle, for example.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 11, 2022)

Undated & unknown video of a russian Su-25 belly landing. Also unknown so far the cause:

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Undated & unknown video of a russian Su-25 belly landing. Also unknown so far the cause:



Three options: battle damage due to ground fire over Ukraine; undercarriage system failure due to poor Russian design or maintenance; under-trained Russian pilot omitted to put the gear down.


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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Three options: battle damage due to ground fire over Ukraine; undercarriage system failure due to poor Russian design or maintenance; under-trained Russian pilot omitted to put the gear down.


Here's some thought for you - Soviet era aircraft are designed quite well with regards to basic systems like the landing gear. There's usually a gear warning system set up when you have flaps down and are below a certain airspeed. You can sought out the rest.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 11, 2022)

He's landing it gingerly-enough that I suspect he knows it's gear-up. It doesn't look like a normal final to me.

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## manta22 (Dec 11, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Undated & unknown video of a russian Su-25 belly landing. Also unknown so far the cause:



Titanium sparks?


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## SaparotRob (Dec 11, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Titanium sparks?


Didn't she headline at Vegas?

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## buffnut453 (Dec 11, 2022)

Hopefully this reporting is correct and that a number of the Wagner mercs were inside the building when it was hit:









Ukraine war: Exiled governor reports strike on 'Wagner HQ'


Kyiv's forces hit a hotel used by the Russian mercenary group, a Ukrainian official says.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Dec 11, 2022)

Saw the analysis of the Su-25 belly landing and it was attributed to the gear failing to extend.
No mention of whether it was due to combat damage or a system failure.

As much as I dislike Russians at the moment, that was an excellent touch down.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 11, 2022)

Good to see the Christmas spirit is alive and well in Russia...perhaps too much spirit?

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 11, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Saw the analysis of the Su-25 belly landing and it was attributed to the gear failing to extend.
> No mention of whether it was due to combat damage or a system failure.
> 
> As much as I dislike Russians at the moment, that was an excellent touch down.


He held it off the ground for as long as he could, great landing

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## Zipper730 (Dec 11, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I think there's no chance of any WMD being used


What about the possibility of some kind of crippling cyber-attack? The Russians and Chinese are both fond of those. I figure the only way to deter these would be to make no distinction between cyber-attacks and actual military attacks on our infrastructure. The Minuteman III's seem to be fairly resistant to hacking because they use technology from the late 1980's.


> I do wonder what is Putin's next move?


I think this would be the time to start hashing out some kind of agreement: I figure it would have to allow the Russians to save face and get the Ukranians to refrain from offensive action into Russia since that would force responses and escalate the situation.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 11, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> What about the possibility of some kind of crippling cyber-attack? The Russians and Chinese are both fond of those.


So are the Ukrainians, Baltics and the US. The Russians don’t have any extraordinary expertise here.



Microsoft: (Cyber) winter is coming as DDoS attack disrupts Russian bank





Inside Estonia’s efforts to help Ukraine fend off Russian hackers

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## GTX (Dec 11, 2022)

A Ukrainian woman's harrowing quest to find her family


Nina Melenets buries her son more than seven months after she says he was killed by shelling in their village in eastern Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Dec 11, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I think this would be the time to start hashing out some kind of agreement: I figure it would have to allow the Russians to save face and get the Ukranians to refrain from offensive action into Russia since that would force responses and escalate the situation.


So we appease Putin and tell the Ukrainians they can only shoot at Russians if the Russians shoot first?

And perhaps limit the Ukrainians to only three rounds in their magazines, too?

The only way Russia can save face now, is to arrest Putin, withdraw from Ukraine and work out a deal for reparations while turning over those that are guilty of atrocities at the same time.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 11, 2022)

Nothing the Russians can do will change the impression they've made now. Sure, they can make reparations and prosecute their criminals, but no country around them will trust them for a long, long time. It's something I said much earlier in this thread, Putin has squandered what little credibility they have on the diplomatic circuit, and their behavior here in Ukraine will mark them for decades to come.

It will take more than regime change, it will require systematic change, and I won't be holding my breath.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 11, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> It will take more than regime change, it will require systematic change, and I won't be holding my breath.


How do you sell systemic change to a people who've been conditioned over the past millennium to exist under one tyrannical regime after another, and haven't a clue how to operate responsibly in a free society? Can tomorrow's strongman be any improvement over today's?

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## Glider (Dec 11, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Good to see the Christmas spirit is alive and well in Russia...perhaps too much spirit?



Well as long as they leave the fighting spirit in Moscow, that's the right place for it

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## Glider (Dec 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> So are the Ukrainians, Baltics and the US. The Russians don’t have any extraordinary expertise here.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's also worth remembering that a high proportion of Russian IT professionals have left for other countries as their skills are easily transferable. In addition Russia has used their skills offensively for a number of years, giving other countries time to learn their ways, yet have not been on the receiving end of such activities until now. Defending against cyber attacks takes skill, time, money (in both personnel and infrastructure costs) and practice. None of which Russia has in any great amount.

Unless they are very careful Russia could be in a situation, where to reuse a famous quote, they sowed the wind and may well reap the whirlwind.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 12, 2022)

Oh, one can only hope this is true. I have no real problem with mercenaries as such, but if you are one, well, if you behave like Wagner, Karma's a bi*ch.









Ukraine war: Exiled governor reports strike on 'Wagner HQ'


Kyiv's forces hit a hotel used by the Russian mercenary group, a Ukrainian official says.



www.bbc.com

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## buffnut453 (Dec 12, 2022)

The truth will emerge eventually:









Ukraine war: The Russians locked up for refusing to fight


Russian troops have reportedly been locked up for refusing to fight in the invasion of Ukraine.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 12, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> How do you sell systemic change to a people who've been conditioned over the past millennium to exist under one tyrannical regime after another, and haven't a clue how to operate responsibly in a free society? Can tomorrow's strongman be any improvement over today's?


The likeliest path to be rid of Putin is another tyrannical regime takes over. That’s how Russia got out of the disaster that was the First World War, with the 1917 Revolution seeing the tyrannical Tsar thrown out and replaced by the equally tyrannical Communists, who being more focused on terrorizing their domestic population quickly reached out to the Germans to end their war, on terms quite favourable to Germany.

If Ukraine takes Melitopol as now predicted in Jan-Feb 2023, and then begins to move into Crimea through March-June, all whilst holding back the enemy in the Donbas, there will be revolutionary-minded Russians who believe the Moscow regime must be violently toppled, and once achieved may come to terms with Ukraine in order to focus on their murderous rampage against Russia’s domestic politicians and perceived power holders. That’s the path Russian history suggests, IMO.

I foresee a similar path for Iran, with the praetorians topping the ayatollahs and establishing a military dictatorship, Saddam-style. Like the Russians, the Persians have lived under autocracy for most of their history.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 12, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> How do you sell systemic change to a people who've been conditioned over the past millennium to exist under one tyrannical regime after another, and haven't a clue how to operate responsibly in a free society? Can tomorrow's strongman be any improvement over today's?



The last guy to try it, Kerensky in 1917, got run out of town inside a year.

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## GTX (Dec 12, 2022)

Zipper730 said:


> I think this would be the time to start hashing out some kind of agreement: I figure it would have to allow the Russians to save face and get the Ukranians to refrain from offensive action into Russia since that would force responses and escalate the situation.


Even the Nobel Peace Prize winners are against a settlement that doesn’t have Russia totally out:









Nobel Peace Prize winners blast Putin's invasion of Ukraine


The winners of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus have shared their visions of a fairer world during an award ceremony and denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine




abcnews.go.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 12, 2022)

vikingBerserker said:


> I think the Gripen would be the better choice. Having the air intake on the bottom of an aircraft operating from rough runways would be a disaster waiting to happen.


Per the below vid, Sweden's wish to join NATO may free up SAAB to offer the Gripen to Ukraine.

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## GTX (Dec 12, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sweden's wish to join NATO may free up SAAB to offer the Gripen to Ukraine.


I fail to see how one is linked to the other. The video is interesting and I believe the Gripen would be good for Ukraine but I don’t see how Sweden’s joining NATO has an effect unless one were to argue that they could give up existing aircraft in the short term and have their gap covered by other NATO member. If that were the case, then the same would apply to any other NATO members especially those bringing types such as the F-35 already since that theoretically frees up existing types such as F-16.

the video at least does highlight the need for training etc. One thing I haven’t seen mentioned though is the associated need to pull pilots and related out of the current fight for months on end to presumably retrained. Is this soemthign Ukraine can afford in the immediate future?

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## GTX (Dec 12, 2022)

What will also be interesting in the future once Ukraine rids itself of the Russian invaders will be what the Ukrainian Armed Forces look like post war. They have had to deal with a mixed bag of systems and weapons during the war and have been taking everything offered. Post war though they will want to reduce down to/standardise on only a couple of systems for logistics/cost reasons. There will also be a massive clean up required. It will be interesting to see where this goes and what they select and why.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 12, 2022)

_KYIV, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Russian forces pounded targets in eastern and southern Ukraine with missiles, drones and artillery, Ukraine's General Staff said on Monday, while millions remained without power in subzero temperatures after further strikes on key infrastructure.

[...]

In its daily update on the military situation, Ukraine's General Staff said its forces had repelled Russian assaults on four settlements in the eastern Donetsk region and on eight settlements in the adjacent Luhansk region.

[...]

Ukraine has said Russian forces are suffering huge losses on the eastern front in brutal fighting that is also taking its toll on its own troops.

[...]

Many members of Russia's private Wagner military group were killed when Ukraine targeted a hotel in the town of Kadiivka in Luhansk where they were based, the exiled governor of the Russian-occupied region, Serhiy Gaidai, said on Sunday.

Ukrainian forces had also hit a recreational centre used by Russian troops in Melitopol in the southeast, the city's exiled mayor, Ivan Fedorov, said.

Reuters could not independently verify the latest battlefield accounts.









Russia fires scores of missiles in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine


Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.




www.reuters.com




_

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 12, 2022)

GTX said:


> I believe the Gripen would be good for Ukraine but I don’t see how Sweden’s joint NATO has an effect


AIUI, Sweden's strict neutrality has precluded it in some cases from offering combat aircraft. But with Sweden a NATO applicant and now providing Ukraine with other weapon systems, any political barriers within Sweden to Gripen exports should be moot. 

But I may not be understanding that right. The below article suggests that rather than barriers of neutrality, Sweden is just a poor salesman of its fighters compared to the USA and France.









Why Can’t Sweden Sell Its Fighter Jets?


When it comes to flaunting its defense industry, Stockholm is shy—and it’s hurting Swedish companies and handing lucrative contracts to competitors.




foreignpolicy.com

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## GrauGeist (Dec 12, 2022)

Quite a few natiins operate the Gripen.

I suspect that it's more of a nation's needs and interoperability than poor salesmanship.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Quite a few natiins operate the Gripen.
> 
> I suspect that it's more of a nation's needs and interoperability than poor salesmanship.



I'd imagine that, say, the F-16, being so widely produced, has more spares available too.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 12, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I suspect that it's more of a nation's needs and interoperability than poor salesmanship.


The article made some good points though. For example, when a national government buys the Rafale or F-16, they're buying it with the participation of the French or US government, not solely from Dassault or Lockheed. But when a government buys a Gripen, they must deal directly with SAAB, with limited to no participation of the Swedish government. Per the article, governments prefer to buy weapons with the participation of the supplier's governments, rather than working through the intricacies of a foreign manufacturing firm's purchasing department.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Slovakia ready to transfer MiG-29 to UAF. And a bunch of other stories:


They're taking their sweet time about it.











Ukraine Is Finally Getting More MiG-29s. Maybe.


Slovakia again has pledged to Ukraine all 11 of its old Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters. The country recently placed the jets into storage in anticipation of just such a transfer.




www.forbes.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 13, 2022)

I wonder what the ghosts of the Armenian SSR's Artem Mikoyan (born 1905, under Ottoman rule) and the Ukrainian SSR's Mikhail Gurevich would think of their namesake MiG-29 leading the charge against the invaders from Russia. I have to think they would be proud.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 13, 2022)

_President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment that the Russian leader's war has gone badly wrong.

Putin typically uses the year-end ritual to polish his image, answering a wide range of questions on domestic and foreign policy to demonstrate his grip on details and give the semblance of openness even though the event is tightly stage-managed.

But this year, with his troops on the back foot in Ukraine, it could be impossible to avoid uncomfortable questions about the Russian military's blunders even at a highly choreographed event. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Monday that Putin wouldn't hold the news conference this month without explaining why.

[...]

Putin also has canceled another annual fixture this year, a televised call-in show in which he takes questions from the public to nurture his father-of-the-nation image.

And he has so far failed to deliver the annual televised state-of-the-nation address to parliament, a constitutional obligation. No date has been set for Putin's address._









Cornered in Ukraine, Putin ditches annual news conference


President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment that the Russian leader's war has gone badly wrong.




apnews.com







... and from ISW ...

_
*Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.[24] *Reznikov stated on December 11 that Ukraine will resume counteroffensives after the "ground is firmer" during the winter when responding to a question about US Director for National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines's forecast that Ukraine is likely to conduct counteroffensives in the spring rather than the winter.[25] Reznikov previously stated on December 6 that Ukraine needs artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, tanks, and combat aircraft to support Ukrainian counteroffensives.[26]

*Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine's ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter. *Voice of America National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin reported that an unnamed senior US military official stated that, "We know the Ukrainians can fight and fight well under these [winter] conditions" on December 12.[27] DNI Haines previously mistakenly identified the optimal window of opportunity for Ukraine to conduct more counteroffensives as the spring rather than winter on December 3.[28] ISW previously assessed that Ukraine likely seeks to conduct successive operations through the winter of 2022–2023.[29]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## Zipper730 (Dec 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> Even the Nobel Peace Prize winners are against a settlement that doesn’t have Russia totally out


Far as I remember, when I said offensive action into Russia, I meant actions that would involve either destroying targets in Russia that would demand a retaliatory response from Russia, or taking land from Russia. The Ukranian people should push out Russians from the territory they took.

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## Ovod (Dec 13, 2022)

Patriot missiles could be going to Ukraine - according to CNN:

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 13, 2022)

GTX said:


> What will also be interesting in the future once Ukraine rids itself of the Russian invaders will be what the Ukrainian Armed Forces look like post war.


If funding can be had they'll want to swap out the hodgepodge of everything and go to standardized systems.

Imagine the AFU with the new Panther MBT.






Rheinmetall predicts NATO demand for hundreds of Panther KF51 tanks | Shephard


Germany's Rheinmetall has identified opportunities to sell 500 to 800 KF51 Panther MBTs to NATO members through to the mid-2030s.



www.shephardmedia.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 13, 2022)

I want Ukraine to operate with NATO equipment to make it easier to see who is shooting at who. 
Never thought I’d be cheering the guys in MiG-29s.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 13, 2022)

A bunch of news.

- Rusia relaying in unreliable artillerie shells (and an ukrainian T-64 blast a russian T-72 and Santa delivers a present to russian troops through the chimney and the ukrainians lost some western supplied hardware and more problems for russian mobiks):









Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Relying On 'Degraded' Ammo Says Pentagon


Russia, which is running out of fresh ammunition, is increasingly relying on rockets and artillery shells made 40 years ago, the Pentagon says.




www.thedrive.com





- A new interview with ukrainian pilot* "Juice":*









Inside Ukraine's Desperate Fight Against Drones With MiG-29 Pilot “Juice”


After months of fighting off the Russian Air Force, Ukraine has had to get very creative to confront a new menace, Iranian-made drones.




www.thedrive.com

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## GTX (Dec 13, 2022)

LED lightbulbs enter Ukrainian resistance fight as Kyiv's allies pledge aid for winter


The humble LED power-saving light bulb could help Ukraine escape blackouts this winter, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says, as Kyiv seeks to resist Russian bombing of its power grid.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 13, 2022)

Meet Bice, the pit bull terrier with an important job helping Ukraine's children


A community centre near Kyiv — which was initially established to give psychological support to people affected by the Chernobyl disaster — now helps children experiencing trauma from Russia's invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Dec 13, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A bunch of news.
> 
> - Rusia relaying in unreliable artillerie shells (and an ukrainian T-64 blast a russian T-72 and Santa delivers a present to russian troops through the chimney and the ukrainians lost some western supplied hardware and more problems for russian mobiks):
> 
> ...


Santa came early! Great stuff.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 14, 2022)

Conditions in the *ground* mud:

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> A bunch of news.
> 
> - Rusia relaying in unreliable artillerie shells (and an ukrainian T-64 blast a russian T-72 and Santa delivers a present to russian troops through the chimney and the ukrainians lost some western supplied hardware and more problems for russian mobiks):
> 
> ...


The drone hitting that stovepipe was just WOW

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## buffnut453 (Dec 14, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Conditions in the *ground* mud:




Interesting mod to the MT-LB, bolting a ZU-23/2 AA gun onto the top deck.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 14, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Dec 14, 2022)

Totally relate to the weather statements. As a maintainer of haul roads, late fall/early winter suck. Two weeks ago in the -20°Cs, the roads were a dream. This tour, the first three days were a constant -4°C and the roads started to thaw and turn to potholes and mud; trucks slipping, skidding and hitting berms. The last four days were -teens and the roads were back to normal. Give me -8° to -30° anytime in the winter. Don't get me started on spring thaw

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## GTX (Dec 14, 2022)

Explosions in Kyiv as 13 Iranian-made drones intercepted and destroyed, Ukraine says


Ukrainian authorities have reported explosions in the capital, saying two administrative buildings were hit in a downtown district that is home to many government buildings.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 14, 2022)

US finalising plans to send Patriot missile defence system to Ukraine, officials say


The Patriot would be the most advanced surface-to-air missile system the West has provided to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 14, 2022)

What is the world going to do about Iran and their supplying Russia with missiles and drones intended to kill civilians? The Israelis give some ideas...









Israel bombed Iranian drone factory in Syria: report - AeroTime


A manufacturing site that produces Iranian-designed drones in Syria has been struck by Israeli airstrikes, the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights (SOHR) reports. According to SOHR, which refers to unnamed sources close to the matter, the attack struck and destroyed equipment for manufacturing...




www.aerotime.aero













Satellite images show alleged Iranian missile factory seriously damaged in blast


Private Israeli intelligence firm releases photographs of facility outside Tehran, where at least two members of the Iranian military were killed earlier this week




www.timesofisrael.com

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## Zipper730 (Dec 14, 2022)

This development is quite troubling and I'm curious if this is a bluff or a potential call for escalation

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## GrauGeist (Dec 14, 2022)

Of course the Russians will be angry at the introduction of Patriot systems.

This will prevent them from murdering more civilians.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Of course the Russians will be angry at the introduction of Patriot systems. This will prevent them from *murdering more civilians*.


If their drones and missiles are reliably intercepted, the Russians will need a new way to accomplish the same.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 14, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Of course the Russians will be angry at the introduction of Patriot systems.
> 
> This will prevent them from murdering more civilians.



Let 'em protest. Russian anger has heretofore been unimpressive. They've waved nukes around since the beginning of this war. They won't resort to nukes over Patriots. This is bluster.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 14, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Dec 14, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> British tanks used HESH rounds (squash head rounds) so rifling was ok.


Interestingly the British have chosen a variant of the smoothbore 120mm Rheinmetall Rh-120 for the Challenger 3. I believe this is the first British tank without a rifle main gun, and might be the first smoothbore breech-loading cannon used by the British since the SBBL 32-pounder from 1882 was retired in 1927.

Presumably, whatever MBT Ukraine fields postwar will be armed with a 120mm NATO equivalent main gun.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 14, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Interestingly the British have chosen a variant of the smoothbore 120mm Rheinmetall Rh-120 for the Challenger 3. I believe this is the first British tank without a rifle main gun, and might be the first smoothbore breech-loading cannon used by the British since the SBBL 32-pounder from 1882 was retired in 1927.
> 
> Presaumblt whatever MBT Ukraine fields postwar will be armed with a 120mm NATO equivalent main gun.


HESH rounds have become less effective due to ERA and NERA protection over the years. A rifled barrel
isn't what you want with the other ammo types so it is a logical step to go smoothbore.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 14, 2022)

A smoothbore gun also allows for PGM use.


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## WARSPITER (Dec 14, 2022)

Interesting that ATGM use came into Soviet tanks due to everything being made lighter to keep weight down. This included the
barrel so higher pressure charges were not a good thing.

Nato type tank guns are beefier so a bigger charge isn't a problem. At one stage a longer calibre gun was an option for the
Abrams but the standard calibre with a more powerful charge did the same job so it stayed.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 15, 2022)

This just amazes me

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 15, 2022)

Better to start planing even if it is still many years away or even if it never happens (nice read by the way).








Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation


View PDF




www.hudson.org

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Better to start planing even if it is still many years away or even if it never happens (nice read by the way).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It will be a race between USA/EU/NATO and China to pick up the spoils and remnants of Russia's collapse. Once again the Great Game is centred on the 'Stans.

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## GTX (Dec 15, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



More on the same:









Ukraine accuses Russia of torturing children in Kharkiv as missile attack thwarted


Ukrainian authorities claim they have discovered evidence of children being tortured in territories formerly occupied by the Russian army.




www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 15, 2022)

Since the liberation of Kherson all has been relatively calm, maybe it will change with the advent of winter. Winter is coming

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## GTX (Dec 15, 2022)

Russia’s New Theory of Victory


Christmas Day will be a grim milestone for the Ukrainian people. It will mark almost exactly ten months since Russian forces crossed into their country, bringing devastation on a scale not seen in Europe since World War II. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed. Millions have fled...




www.foreignaffairs.com

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## GrauGeist (Dec 15, 2022)

Something you guys might find interesting:
The cross you see in the Ukraine Military flag in the background of Roger's post above, is called the "Cossak Cross" and has a long history in the region that is now Ukraine.

I find it very fitting, seeing as how the Cossaks were legendary for their ferocity on the battlefield.

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## Snowman (Dec 15, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Better to start planing even if it is still many years away or even if it never happens (nice read by the way).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Agreed, this is most realistic scenario. Add here thousands of armed criminals demobilized/deserted from the current war, wandering across the whole landscape. 

And then the next 'Mad Max' will be documentary.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 15, 2022)

Interesting analysis from a Russian propaganda arty vid.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 15, 2022)



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## fubar57 (Dec 15, 2022)

Micrometeorite or..........you know who https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/soyuz-leak-1.6686911

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## fubar57 (Dec 15, 2022)

Again with the dire consequences.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-invasion-day-295-1.6686738

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 15, 2022)

Second part of the interview with Juice:









A MiG-29 Pilot’s Inside Account Of The Changing Air War Over Ukraine


Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot “Juice” details the morphing air war being fought above his country, where tactics and capabilities are changing fast.




www.thedrive.com

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 15, 2022)

New training regime.









U.S. Will Train More Ukrainian Troops, Adding Advanced Battle Tactics


Western instruction since Russia’s invasion has focused on basic training or the use of sophisticated weapons systems. Officials say “combined arms” tactics could be a key next step.




www.nytimes.com





WASHINGTON — The United States is expanding the number of Ukrainian troops it instructs at a base in Germany, with a new focus on advanced battlefield tactics, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.
The expanded training would emphasize "combined arms" warfare — tight coordination among infantry, artillery, armored vehicles and, when it is available, air support, so that each group is strengthened and protected by the others.
Ukrainian officials have been wary of pulling too many troops off the front lines at any given time for specialized training given the intensity of the war. But with winter slowing the tempo of fighting in many parts of the combat zone, officials said the coming months would provide a window for more troops to benefit from training.
The training is expected to begin in January and would enable American instructors to train a Ukrainian battalion, or about 500 troops, each month, a number that could grow, Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said at a news briefing. Other U.S. officials said the battalions could range up to 800 soldiers each.
American forces are now training about 300 Ukrainians per month — and have trained 3,100 since the war began — focused on teaching them to use specific advanced U.S. weapons systems. That includes 610 soldiers who have learned to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that Ukraine has used to devastating effect against Russian forces, hitting targets far behind the front lines, including ammunition depots, command posts and bridges.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 15, 2022)

I imagine they have a lot to teach us as well. Let's hope the instructors have open ears.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 15, 2022)

I'm hoping there's been 3100 airman being trained that we don't know about.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 16, 2022)

There is currently an unusually high number of F-16s in training in the Tucson area. HOPE, HOPE, HOPE it's them

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## Jabberwocky (Dec 16, 2022)

Open source documented Russian tank losses passed 1500 a couple of days ago. Around 500 of those have been captured! Aircraft combat losses have reached roughly 60 jets and 60 helicopters a piece. More than that have definitely gone down, but getting visual confirmation is much more difficult than with ground vehicles.

Ukrainian claims are now:

Tanks: 2975 
Other AFVs: 5946
Artillery pieces (all kinds): 1943
Fixed wing aircraft: 284
Helicopters: 261
Personnel: 96,500 killed, 1000+ PoW, 289,000 wounded

Whole thing has just turned back into a bloody war of attrition. 

I wonder if the recent freezing weather is going to lead to a new mobile phase, or if both sides are just going to dig in for the winter? Pro-Ukrainian social media accounts seem very positive over the last two to three weeks.

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## Denniss (Dec 16, 2022)

just fall back to experiences from WW2 - Rain/mud = bad , snowy and frozen ground = action

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 16, 2022)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-200th-brigade-decimated-ukraine/


paywall free: archive.ph

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## Denniss (Dec 16, 2022)

I hope Germany and/or Rheinmetall do everything they can to buy back Gepards from foreign operators (Brazil, Jordan?) to supply them for Ukraine to counter the endless missile/drone attacks on their energy systems. If Romania still operates Gepards they should ask Germany to deliver their ammo stock of swiss origin (as Nato aid), then 'loan' some or all of their Gepards to Ukraine.
BTW really strange to see everyone develops and uses Drones but no one has actually develop cost effective measures to shoot them out of the sky (other than to waste expensive AA missiles). Same for cruise missiles - couple of thousand bucks bring down a multi-million bucks rocket.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 16, 2022)

_KYIV, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.

Two people were killed when an apartment block was hit in central Kryvyi Rih and another died in shelling in Kherson in the south, they said. Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said 11 people had died in Ukrainian shelling.


Kyiv warned late on Thursday that Moscow plans a new all-out offensive early next year, around a year after its Feb. 24 invasion, which has destroyed huge areas of Ukraine but brought little of it under Moscow's control.

Russia has rained missiles on Ukrainian energy infrastructure almost weekly since early October after a series of battlefield defeats, but Friday's attack appeared to have caused more damage than many others.

"What we already see is damage to about nine (power) generating facilities," Energy Minister German Galushchenko said, adding that investigations were continuing.

Russia flew warplanes near Ukraine to try to distract its air defences, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said._









Russia fires scores of missiles in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine


Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.




www.reuters.com





... and from ISW:

_*These two military efforts are failing to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions, and Ukraine has retained the battlefield initiative following its two successive counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Putin may therefore be setting conditions for a third, sequential military effort in the likely event that these two efforts fail to secure his objectives by preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the winter of 2023. *Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny suggested that such an offensive could take place as early as January, in the worst-case scenario, and March, in the best case.[6] Zaluzhny additionally observed that this new offensive could take the form of another mechanized attack against Kyiv from Belarusian territory.[7] As ISW has previously reported, there are a series of observed indicators that suggest that Russian forces may indeed be preparing for a new offensive operation—including the reconsolidation of force compositions along major axes of advance and the movement of heavy equipment to the frontlines.[8]

[...]

*It remains extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv even if Russian forces again attack from Belarus again.* Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia's conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022. Russian forces have been unable to secure their gains across Ukraine and have lost over 70,000 square km of occupied territory since abandoning Kyiv. Russian forces in Bakhmut currently advance no more than 100-200 meters a day after concentrating their main efforts there.[23] Russia has not established air superiority let alone air supremacy in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its precision-guided munitions arsenal. Ukrainian forces, for their part, have prepared significant defenses in northern Ukraine and are better prepared to defend now than they were in February 2022. The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv run through defensible chokepoints in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Ukrainian forces now have experience defending.[24]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org

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## Dimlee (Dec 16, 2022)

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces


Edited highlights of our conversation




www.economist.com




Good interview.
Beyond the wall:


https://archive.vn/x2Za7

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## Dimlee (Dec 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _KYIV, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Russia fired more than 70 missiles during Friday's morning rush hour in one of its biggest attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said.
> 
> Two people were killed when an apartment block was hit in central Kryvyi Rih and another died in shelling in Kherson in the south, they said. Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said 11 people had died in Ukrainian shelling.
> 
> ...


General Staff just updated: 81% of incoming missiles were shot down today. 
NASAMS and IRIS-T manufacturers will get more orders in 2023, I'm sure.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 16, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I hope Germany and/or Rheinmetall do everything they can to buy back Gepards from foreign operators (Brazil, Jordan?) to supply them for Ukraine to counter the endless missile/drone attacks on their energy systems. If Romania still operates Gepards they should ask Germany to deliver their ammo stock of swiss origin (as Nato aid), then 'loan' some or all of their Gepards to Ukraine.
> BTW really strange to see everyone develops and uses Drones but no one has actually develop cost effective measures to shoot them out of the sky (other than to waste expensive AA missiles). Same for cruise missiles - couple of thousand bucks bring down a multi-million bucks rocket.


Flack is back! 








Ancient anti-aircraft guns are taking on a new mission amid Russia's war in Ukraine


Flak is back: The war in Ukraine has shown that older anti-aircraft guns still have a role on the battlefield.




www.businessinsider.com





Even older 20x110 Hispano-Suiza (well, copies actually) seem to be effective in the antidrone role.


But being a WWII aircraft forum I bet that machine-gun armed piston-airplanes will be way more cost effective against those Iranian drones than chasing them with Mig-29 (afaik one Mig was shoot-down due to ingestion of the drone debris). Actually thinking about it I guess that even .50 cal would be overkill for those drones, better to have more bullets in the air than stronger ones.
What about a squadron of Hurricane Mk IIB? you can't go wrong with 12 guns firing 1150 rpm each

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 16, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Flack is back!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1917 has something to offer:

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 16, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> 1917 has something to offer:
> 
> 
> View attachment 698844


Saint Lewis to the rescue!

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## Glider (Dec 16, 2022)

somebody somewhere must have a stack of 40mm Bofors in their warehouses. During the Falklands one was credited with a Mirage.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 16, 2022)

Glider said:


> somebody somewhere must have a stack of 40mm Bofors in their warehouses. During the Falklands one was credited with a Mirage.


Back in my day, quad 40s were popular lawn ornaments at naval base enlisted barracks everywhere. Something to polish and/or paint for extra duty. Take up a collection?

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## SaparotRob (Dec 16, 2022)

The quad 40 is my all time favorite artillery weapon.

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## GTX (Dec 16, 2022)

Vladimir Putin wants to put Ukraine in a deep freeze. Here's how Kyiv is trying to fight back


For months, Vladimir Putin's forces have hammered Ukraine's power grid with drone and missile attacks, leaving millions of civilians living in squalid, freezing conditions. But in a forest near Kyiv, a platoon of soldiers in World War II-era trenches is fighting back.




www.abc.net.au





Might be time for a "Berlin Airlift" style approach to fly in solar panels and generators etc to Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 16, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin wants to put Ukraine in a deep freeze. Here's how Kyiv is trying to fight back
> 
> 
> For months, Vladimir Putin's forces have hammered Ukraine's power grid with drone and missile attacks, leaving millions of civilians living in squalid, freezing conditions. But in a forest near Kyiv, a platoon of soldiers in World War II-era trenches is fighting back.
> ...



If we could protect them, sure. I think it'd be better to airlift SAM batteries first, otherwise, we're throwing targets into range.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 16, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Dec 16, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If we could protect them, sure. I think it'd be better to airlift SAM batteries first, otherwise, we're throwing targets into range.


I don't think it is cost effective to destroy solar panels with missiles or drones.
Russia is targeting power plants and main electric transformer hubs. Wich are a few and easy concentrated targets. Scatered solar panels, on the other hand will require thousands and thousands of missiles that are orders of magnitude more expensive than the panel they destroy.

Its the reverse of the curret situation we where discussing before. Its not cost effective to use expensive SAMS to intercept cheap Iranian drones. So i Repeat the proposal ...
What about a squadron of Hurricane Mk IIB? you can't go wrong with 12 guns firing 1150 rpm each 

I know I know, there may be no hurricanes around, but ... is there any modern equivalent that could be used in the anti-drone role?
Those drones fly at around 100-200 Kmph, so a propeller aircraft is fast enough. Maybe something like a COIN aircraft equipped with a few GAU-2

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Those drones fly at around 100-200 Kmph, so a propeller aircraft is fast enough. Maybe something like a COIN aircraft equipped with a few GAU-2


The OV-10 Bronco o the Embraer Súper Tucano could be a solution but Who need pretty good GCI to do the job and, maybe, fit a radar in the plane to do the interception. At night and/or bad weather sighting such a small target could be a hard task.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 17, 2022)

Solar panels will be about as much use in the Ukrainian winter as a chocolate teapot - might even be down at the level of
a lasagna trampoline.

Distributed diesel generators would be easier to protect and would give a reliable supply.

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## ARTESH (Dec 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Those drones fly at around 100-200 Kmph, so a propeller aircraft is fast enough. Maybe something like a COIN aircraft equipped with a few GAU-2


Those drones are easily replaceable... No worry about the price, Arab sheikhs love Russian girls, they will replace dozens of drones with just one Russian girl, specially if she is virgin and under 14...

In this case, best way to counter them, is elimination of those operators... it is less costly, and to be honest, who cares about a few terorists being fucked up??? I, personally, cry of happiness, whenever I hear a terorist is fucked up.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 17, 2022)



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## Admiral Beez (Dec 17, 2022)

Good article on Russia’s failure in Ukraine.









Putin’s War: The Inside Story of a Catastrophe


Secret battle plans, intercepted communications and Russian soldiers explain how a “walk in the park” became a catastrophe for Russia.



www.nytimes.com





Here‘s paywall free access, https://archive.vn/lUU9l

A part from the Ukrainian Air Force:

_As missiles struck the southern city of Mykolaiv before dawn, a Ukrainian pilot, Oleksii, woke up to a phone call: Get to the runway, a fellow pilot told him._
_Oleksii bolted across the tarmac in the dark as the first Russian missiles landed, clambered into his Su-27 fighter jet and took off just as buildings across the airfield began to explode.

"At that moment, I understood that it was really something bad," said Oleksii, 26, on condition that only his first name and rank, captain, be used. Some other soldiers and officials in this article were not authorized to speak publicly, or faced reprisals.

Just before 6 a.m. Moscow time, Mr. Putin declared the opening of his "special military operation" in a televised address. It began with an aerial bombardment to take out Ukraine's air defenses, communications and radar installations — to overwhelm its military and shatter its ability to fight back.

More than 150 missiles thundered into Ukraine from bombers, submarines and ships. As many as 75 Russian aircraft streaked into Ukrainian skies, about the size of Ukraine's entire working air combat fleet, analysts and officials said.

On his radar screen, Oleksii saw the blips of incoming missiles and enemy aircraft before getting his orders: Fly to a backup air base in central Ukraine. When he landed, he was astonished. Not only was his unit there, but a good portion of Ukraine's remaining air force as well.

For days, he and his fellow pilots flew missions from their new base, wondering when Russian radar operators would finally notice them. A strike on their position could have been disastrous, gutting the Ukrainian defense, and the pilots assumed it was only a matter of time until one came. But it took four days for the Russians to attack, and most of the aircraft had moved to new locations by then, leaving Oleksii in amazement.

"It was really simple," he said. "I don't know how they missed this opportunity."
_
_The failure to destroy Ukraine's modest air defenses was one of the most significant blunders of the war, foiling Russia's mighty air force early on. Interviews revealed why that happened — and how the Ukrainians managed to stay a step ahead of their invaders._

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 17, 2022)

First Germany, now Japan. The parallels with the 1930s are depressingly familiar:

_TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Japan on Friday unveiled its biggest military build-up since World War Two with a $320 billion plan that will buy missiles capable of striking China and ready it for sustained conflict, as regional tensions and Russia's Ukraine invasion stoke war fears.

The sweeping, five-year plan, once unthinkable in pacifist Japan, will make the country the world's third-biggest military spender after the United States and China, based on current budgets.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who described Japan and its people as being at a "turning point in history", said the ramp-up was "my answer to the various security challenges that we face".

His government worries that Russia has set a precedent that will encourage China to attack Taiwan, threatening nearby Japanese islands, disrupting supplies of advanced semiconductors and putting a potential stranglehold on sea lanes that supply Middle East oil.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a serious violation of laws that forbid the use of force and has shaken the foundations of the international order," the strategy paper said.

"The strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest Japan has ever faced," it added, also noting that Beijing had not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control._



https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pacifist-japan-unveils-unprecedented-320-bln-military-build-up-2022-12-16/'



I cannot imagine President Xi being very happy with Putin, what with his invasion having woken up the democracies, one of which is right on his doorstep.

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## fubar57 (Dec 17, 2022)

Putler talks to his commanders... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6689737

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## GrauGeist (Dec 17, 2022)

Thanks to China's expansionism, Japan now has a formidible fleet of subs, two carriers plus two "super destroyers" soon to be under construction.

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## ARTESH (Dec 17, 2022)



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## ARTESH (Dec 17, 2022)

@mantra22 , 

 Shinpachi


Japanese have once captured China...
Given any chance, is this possible with modern Japanese army?

In other word, is Japanese army able to repeat history?


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## GrauGeist (Dec 17, 2022)

Japan held technical superiority over China in the 1930's and also took advantage of the political situation at the time.
China was in the midst of a civil war between Nationalists, Communists, warlords and a failing Imperial government.

Today's China is much more advanced militarily as well as unified under a single government, so would be quick to respond to military action.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 17, 2022)

I doubt it. China was a hodge-podge of territories controlled by warlords. No air force to speak of and I don't recall ever reading anything about Chinese naval assets. 
Today, China has one warlord and one HUGE army and serious naval and Air Force assets. I can't see Japan launching an amphibious assault and the Korean route is a non starter.

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Solar panels will be about as much use in the Ukrainian winter as a chocolate teapot - might even be down at the level of
> a lasagna trampoline.


Is there sunshine? If so, they work. even small panels distributed along with batteries to individual households help


WARSPITER said:


> Distributed diesel generators would be easier to protect and would give a reliable supply.


And need fuel though did say both

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I don't think it is cost effective to destroy solar panels with missiles or drones.
> Russia is targeting power plants and main electric transformer hubs. Wich are a few and easy concentrated targets. Scatered solar panels, on the other hand will require thousands and thousands of missiles that are orders of magnitude more expensive than the panel they destroy.


Agreed


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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If we could protect them, sure. I think it'd be better to airlift SAM batteries first, otherwise, we're throwing targets into range.


Weapons are fine but if the immediate targeting Putin is doing is the Ukrainian power infrastructure then this is an immediate 'band-aid' It would be part of a comprehensive solution.

BTW, I was thinking of anything ranging from small, individual generators/panels suitable for individuals/families up to bigger, but still portable systems such as:









Portable Off-Grid Solar Solutions | Greentech Engineering Solutions


Have an independent source of power with Greentech Engineering Off-Grid Power Solutions. Reliable and affordable solutions designed for farmers, events, communities, mining and mobile worksites.




www.g-techengineering.com.au
 








Generac Mobile


Generac Mobile Products




www.generacmobileproducts.com

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

A toddler among bodies pulled from wreckage of Russian bombardment


Some 76 missiles are fired in the latest Russian attack targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as Moscow aims to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold this winter.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Putler talks to his commanders... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6689737


Similar:









Putin meets with military commanders to discuss next actions in Ukraine war


Russian president Vladimir Putin reportedly seeks proposals from his armed forces commanders on how the war in Ukraine should proceed.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

Only Russia’s decisive loss on the battlefield will end the Ukraine war | The Strategist


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a global crisis. Putin could not let Ukraine chart its own political path or accept an independent Ukrainian identity. The invasion thus is not only about one ...




www.aspistrategist.org.au

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## ThomasP (Dec 17, 2022)

re generators for Ukraine

""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again.""

Update: 5000+ generators of various sizes already shipped (flown) to Ukraine theater. More are in in the pipe.

Courtesy of MN, WI, ND, SD, and other midwest based businesses, and the USAF/ANG.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 17, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> @mantra22 ,
> 
> Shinpachi
> 
> ...



Japan didn't capture China. They did invade and control a good portion of it, but China never submitted, and Japan never controlled more than 20-25% of the mainland, if even that much.

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re generators for Ukraine
> 
> ""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again.""
> 
> ...


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 17, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Japan didn't capture China. They did invade and control a good portion of it, but China never submitted, and Japan never controlled more than 20-25% of the mainland, if even that much.


Today‘s Japan is nothing like that of imperial Japan. We needn‘t worry about Japanese expansionism. Though I wouldn’t mind if Japan had been allowed to keep the Korean Peninsula and perhaps Formosa postwar. 

Interestingly, the Japanese were never forcibly expelled from DEI. After Japan surrendered the war-torn government back in the Netherlands asked the IJA to remain in the DEI to maintain law and order until Dutch police and forces could be sent.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 17, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Today‘s Japan is nothing like that of imperial Japan. We needn‘t worry about Japanese expansionism. Though I wouldn’t mind if Japan had been allowed to keep the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan postwar.



Oh, I'm not worried about Japanese expansionism. I'm glad they're our allies.

But after their reign of terror, especially in Korea, allowing them to keep those territories was out of the question in the post-war era, and rightly so in my opinion.

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## GTX (Dec 17, 2022)

The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones


From a shabby office in Hong Kong to a house in suburban Florida, these are the businesses allowing Russia to build drones that are killing Ukrainians.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Dec 17, 2022)

GTX said:


> The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones
> 
> 
> From a shabby office in Hong Kong to a house in suburban Florida, these are the businesses allowing Russia to build drones that are killing Ukrainians.
> ...


Disgusting.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 17, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Disgusting.


Wholly agreed. But war is business. If you can it’s most profitably to sell to both sides. Like the Swedes and Spanish in WW2 - nearly everyone used their Bofers, Oerlikon and Hispano guns.


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## at6 (Dec 18, 2022)

And to think. If "poor litlle Vlad" hadn't have had all of those used German condoms left from the great patriotic war, he would have starved to death.


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## Zipper730 (Dec 18, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Micrometeorite or..........you know who https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/soyuz-leak-1.6686911


I doubt it because the costs would be too extreme: If a station like the ISS blew up it would produce so much debris that it would largely render space unusable for sometime.

This would be one of those things that would be too destructive for any one side to actually benefit: Any country that benefits from satellites would lose a lot.


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## Shinpachi (Dec 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> @mantra22 ,
> 
> Shinpachi
> 
> ...


If China should be out of control again, it should be neighbors' role to take care of them for the national security.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 18, 2022)

Russia’s Shadowy Mercenary Air Force Is Losing More And More Jets In Ukraine



Found this interesting

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## Glider (Dec 18, 2022)

This may be of interest. It's nice to know that we in the UK have a modern new facility for the production of ammunition.



Inside the British factory producing the shells hammering Vladimir Putin’s forces

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## manta22 (Dec 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> @mantra22 ,
> 
> Shinpachi
> 
> ...


The point of the Japanese military buildup is not whether they could invade China; the point is that they are becomming strong enough to dissuade China from attacking them. A weak, defenseless Japan would be a sheep waiting for the wolf.

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## swampyankee (Dec 18, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Wholly agreed. But war is business. If you can it’s most profitably to sell to both sides. Like the Swedes and Spanish in WW2 - nearly everyone used their Bofers, Oerlikon and Hispano guns.


War certainly _involves_ business, although invasions are frequently (always?) about seizing resources, be these land (_Leibensraum_, Manifest Destiny), slaves (well, _Leibensraum_, but, earlier, Rome, Viking raids, and many others), or other resources. 

It may not have been just companies from neutral countries. Ford, GM, IBM, and others had German subsidiaries.

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

UK confirms Brimstone 2 missiles delivery to Ukraine


The British Ministry of Defense has confirmed the country supplied its Brimstone 2 precision-guided missiles to Ukraine to support the fight against Russia. The Ministry of Defense said in a release that the UK has provided Brimstone 2 missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as part of a new aid...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

Ukraine develops light rocket launcher


Ukrainian engineers have developed an improvised ground-based light rocket launcher that fires S-8 aircraft rockets. The "Sivalka" VM-8 is a 16-tube launcher using 80mm S-8KO rockets typically fired by tactical aircraft and military helicopters. The new system allows you to quickly turn...




defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

Morocco agrees to donate its Czech modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


T-72B Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) modernized by the Czech company Excalibur Army for Morocco will be delivered to Ukraine




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

Example of the type of brainwashing people in Russia have been fed. Scarily too many, including way too many in the West (looking especially at many believing the OAN and FOX garbage) also believe this sort of delusional crap:

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Morocco agrees to donate its Czech modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> T-72B Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) modernized by the Czech company Excalibur Army for Morocco will be delivered to Ukraine
> ...


Nice. I was thinking the best place for the Czech refurbishers to get T-72s is from across Africa. There must be hundreds of them available for the right price or political favours.


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## Wurger (Dec 18, 2022)

*Gentelmen, we know that such threads like that may increase somebody's blood pressure. Therefore the Mod team asks for more taste and tact when posting here. Thank you for your co-operation.*

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Morocco agrees to donate its Czech modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> T-72B Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) modernized by the Czech company Excalibur Army for Morocco will be delivered to Ukraine
> ...


Beside this, their football team have decided to donate the money they've won, to build houses for homeless people in their country.

Much respect to them!

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

Wurger said:


> Gentelmen, we know that such threads like that may increase somebody's blood pressure but The Mod team asks for more taste and tact when posting here. Thank you for your co-operation.


Roger that!


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Example of the type of brainwashing people in Russia have been fed. Scarily too many, including way too many in the West (looking especially at many believing the OAN and FOX garbage) also believe this sort of delusional crap:

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

Just received this beautiful pic from a frontline warrior!

#slavaUkraina

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

A special bottle of gin produced in Australia to mark the liberation of Kherson:






















Kherson Liberation Gin - Sunshine & Sons







www.sunshineandsons.com.au

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

This one a special one!!!


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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

They are only an hour or so drive from me - might go visit...

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> Example of the type of brainwashing people in Russia have been fed. Scarily too many, including way too many in the West (looking especially at many believing the OAN and FOX garbage) also believe this sort of delusional crap:



I wonder if she can name those 85 genders!!!

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## Marcel (Dec 18, 2022)

I sometimes wonder if people understand how serious the war is. They like to treat it like a giant joke or video game.
There are real people dying there and lots of them by the sound of it. The civilians and soldiers of Ukraine, but also those poor Russian souls who are rushed into battle without proper equipment or preparation, who never asked for fighting this war.
It’s a sad year because of it and I personally don’t find anything laughable about it.

2022 is almost over. Let’s hope 2023 will bring peace for Ukraine and the Russian people.

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

Marcel said:


> I sometimes wonder if people understand how serious the war is. They like to treat it like a giant joke or video game.
> There are real people dying there and lots of them by the sound of it. The civilians and soldiers of Ukraine, but also those poor Russian souls who are rushed into battle without proper equipment or preparation, who never asked for fighting this war.
> It’s a sad year because of it and I personally don’t find anything laughable about it.
> 
> 2022 is almost over. Let’s hope 2023 will bring peace for Ukraine and the Russian people.


I got your point, but when talking about Russians, I will mention it, Russian, I respect them. But never and under any circumstances will not respect any mercenaries or traitors on the Attacker side, I really don't care about them. That was not their war, whatever happens to them, don't matter to me, at all. As a matter of fact: traitors, mercenaries and paramilitary units are not covered by MP rules and laws, it means killing them is not considered a crime, nor war crime.

Regarding the post about the woman, sometimes it is really necessary to disrespect, insult, humiliate, or even do some more dirty jobs, to silence some noises. Just like what is going with some mottos in recent events, in Iran.

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

On the heaviest days of fighting in Ukraine, doctors can carry out five amputations at a time


No two days are the same at a military hospital in the Donetsk region that treats soldiers wounded in some of the fiercest battles with Russian forces.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 18, 2022)

Linked??

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

A wanderer mortar round would be a nice X-mass and welcoming gift to them!

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## Marcel (Dec 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Regarding the post about the woman, sometimes it is really necessary to disrespect, insult, humiliate, or even do some more dirty jobs, to silence some noises.


it’s all noise, Artesh. Propaganda from both sides. The woman might exist but it’s of no significance whatsoever. I’m sure the Russians have similar videos about westerners or Ukrainian people, equally insignificant.

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

Marcel said:


> it’s all noise, Artesh. Propaganda from both sides. The woman might exist but it’s of no significance whatsoever. I’m sure the Russians have similar videos about westerners or Ukrainian people, equally insignificant.


Surely, it is! Without propaganda, they have nothing to continue fight. But there is difference between "noise" and "propaganda"...

Fight for king / god or any similar things, are propaganda!

But "they have 85 genders on West" is a noise!

Propaganda might be useful for sometimes, or in special circumstances, but noise, never will be, only cause more and more troubles.

Those "noises" are the reason I've left Iranian forums for years.

aka: the West is bad, everyone is naked in West and other bs like these, meanwhile each one of those who say these words, have multiple properties in West and their children living there, too! But those fouls repeating these "noises", sleep with hungry stomachs...

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## SaparotRob (Dec 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Surely, it is! Without propaganda, they have nothing to continue fight. But there is difference between "noise" and "propaganda"...
> 
> Fight for king / god or any similar things, are propaganda!
> 
> ...


Accidentally hit reply.


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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 18, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Surely, it is! Without propaganda, they have nothing to continue fight. But there is difference between "noise" and "propaganda"...
> 
> Fight for king / god or any similar things, are propaganda!


Then spake brave Horatio,
Captain of the Guard,
"To every man death will come,
be it soft or be it hard.
But what better way is there to die,
then facing fearsome odds,
for the bones of his fathers,
and the temples of his gods?"

SLAVA UKRAINI !

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 18, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Accidentally hit reply.

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## Glider (Dec 18, 2022)

GTX said:


> On the heaviest days of fighting in Ukraine, doctors can carry out five amputations at a time
> 
> 
> No two days are the same at a military hospital in the Donetsk region that treats soldiers wounded in some of the fiercest battles with Russian forces.
> ...


I m sure that we all agree that the medical staff, be they in the front line, or anywhere else in the process are one of those often overlooked stars of this or any other conflict.

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## ARTESH (Dec 18, 2022)

A Polish magazine published its new issue, dedicated to separated families of Ukraine.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 18, 2022)



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## ThomasP (Dec 19, 2022)

Interesting outlook:

"A Russian tank unit deliberately attacked another Russian position in Ukraine, report says, illustrating vicious rivalries within Putin's army"

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## ThomasP (Dec 19, 2022)

I ran across this comment the other day in an internal memo:

"The rest of the world could use a spinal transplant from Ukraine."

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 19, 2022)

Check this out. It's pretty long, but interesting perspective. Sober analysis by a couple old soldiers with tactical and strategic experience.

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## Glider (Dec 19, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Check this out. It's pretty long, but interesting perspective. Sober analysis by a couple old soldiers with tactical and strategic experience.



I must admit that my first thought was, 'What are these guys smoking'. Describing the Russian offensive as an 'economy of force operation' is as far from the truth as I can imagine. To then say that Poland has had 5000 casualties and that the US and UK have also suffered thousands of casualties is the stuff of fantasy

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## buffnut453 (Dec 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> I must admit that my first thought was, 'What are these guys smoking'. Describing the Russian offensive as an 'economy of force operation' is as far from the truth as I can imagine. To then say that Poland has had 5000 casualties and that the US and UK have also suffered thousands of casualties is the stuff of fantasy



Yeah...there's a whole bunch of selective analysis going on here. For example, they completely ignore the fact that Moscow actively generated the conditions for the eastern breakaway republics by arming rebels and sending in his Wagner proxies. 

The language is very pro-Putin. Like you, I'm wondering what these guys are smoking. They're stating Putin wanted to minimize civilian casualties when, right from the beginning, nothing could be further from the truth. 

They're also laying a lot of blame on the West for not negotiating but completely ignoring the fact that Russia invaded a sovereign nation. What is the West supposed to do? Give in and let Putin take over huge swaths of a neighbouring nation?

Now they're saying that the advances in Kherson were done with approval of Russian leadership. Really? They lost all their operational logistic hubs and yet that was "useless" ground, according to the much-lauded Colonel in the video.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 19, 2022)

Useful idiots.

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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)

Interesting series of tweets from Mick Ryan:

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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 19, 2022)

GTX said:


>



On 12 January 1968 Bell UH-1B succeeded in shooting down one An-2 (reportedly the crew used an ak-47, so I assume that the UH-1 was an unarmed variant)
Considering the max speed of AN-2, anything that is cost effective to shot-down those Iranian drones will have an easy run at those An-2.

Damn who would have thought that there is a need for machine-gun armed relatively slow piston-engined combat aircraft in XXI century.
And who would have thought those are needed to fight Russia

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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 19, 2022)

All roads lead to Crimea: could Russia be facing 'national humiliation' in Ukraine?


As the war drags on, Ukraine has a chance of recovering its Crimea territory from Russia. But there are four key things that would need to happen first.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Dec 19, 2022)

Made the mistake of continuing to listen to the drivel posted at #14,228. These two "experts" continue to point out Ukrainian failings and mis-steps by the West but singularly refuse to acknowledge ANY mis-steps or mistakes by Russia. They make bold statements that the West is presenting a false narrative of the war, to include intelligence agencies...but they offer ZERO evidence of that. 

They're also spouting the same old drivel about NATO simply doing the bidding of the US. Again, they're ignoring the very differing, and nuanced, approaches take by the European governments to the war in Ukraine. 

I think I need to stop listening before I throw my computer out of the window.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 19, 2022)

Glider said:


> I must admit that my first thought was, 'What are these guys smoking'. Describing the Russian offensive as an 'economy of force operation' is as far from the truth as I can imagine.





buffnut453 said:


> Like you, I'm wondering what these guys are smoking.





Greg Boeser said:


> Useful idiots.


Unreconstructed relics of the cold war. (After listening to the whole thing.)

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## buffnut453 (Dec 19, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Unreconstructed relics of the cold War. (After listening to the whole thing.)



I gave up at the whole "ruling global elites" discussion which, again, ignores the fact that those national leaders are elected by the people in all the nations mentioned. 

The whole thing was unsupported blathering by 2 men who clearly have a political agenda they're trying to push, selectively making historical comparisons which simply don't stack up against the situation today. Comments like "Britain bankrupted itself maintaining its empire and then came cap-in-hand to the US to fund and equip them." Really? The fact that Britain was standing up alone against 3 totalitarian regimes in a fighting war, with a 4th adversary lurking in the wings? And that's Britain's fault? GRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!


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## at6 (Dec 19, 2022)

While I would support peace negotiations, there must be absolutely no concession of Ukrainian territories the the Russians. When I hear the reports of the war crimes being committed against innocent children and other civilians by the Orcs, I want trials with executions.

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## MiTasol (Dec 19, 2022)

Denniss said:


> I hope Germany and/or Rheinmetall do everything they can to buy back Gepards from foreign operators (Brazil, Jordan?) to supply them for Ukraine to counter the endless missile/drone attacks on their energy systems. If Romania still operates Gepards they should ask Germany to deliver their ammo stock of swiss origin (as Nato aid), then 'loan' some or all of their Gepards to Ukraine.
> BTW really strange to see everyone develops and uses Drones *but no one has actually develop cost effective measures to shoot them out of the sky* (other than to waste expensive AA missiles). Same for cruise missiles - couple of thousand bucks bring down a multi-million bucks rocket.



The Lithuanians have developed electronic weapons that seize control of drones or cause them to shut down in flight and those are in use in Ukraine but I suspect the Iranians are rapidly changing the missile programming so that the Lithuanian electronic weapons need reprogramming as well.

I suspect the Ukrainians have similar weapons and are keeping quiet about them.

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## manta22 (Dec 19, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> The Lithuanians have developed electronic weapons that seize control of drones or cause them to shut down in flight and those are in use in Ukraine but I suspect the Iranians are rapidly changing the missile programming so that the Lithuanian electronic weapons need reprogramming as well.
> 
> I suspect the Ukrainians have similar weapons and are keeping quiet about them.


Shootong down small/medium sized drones is a perfect application for high power lasers. Time to field test a system?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

In order for there to be peace, in my humble and honest opinion:


Russia must cease all hostilities.
Russia must leave all Ukrainian land and territory to include Crimea.
Putin must be removed from office and put on trial.

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## Frog (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> In order for there to be peace, in my humble and honest opinion:
> 
> 
> Russia must cease all hostilities.
> ...


Russia must be accountable for all the destructions, damages and suffering.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Frog said:


> Russia must be accountable for all the destructions, damages and suffering.



Yeap, thanks for adding that.

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

Forgot most important thing: all traitors and terorists, have to be executed immediately! Without that, peace is just a piece of paper!

Specially any terorists sent by the regime of Iran, have to be executed right in front of Iranian embassy, by Iranians in Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 19, 2022)

Rule of law. It's one of the things the fight is about.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Forgot most important thing: all traitors and terorists, have to be executed immediately! Without that, peace is just a piece of paper!
> 
> Specially any terorists sent by the regime of Iran, have to be executed right in front of Iranian embassy, by Iranians in Ukraine.



Sorry, but that’s not how the civilized world works…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Rule of law. It's one of the things the fight is about.



And a civilized world that has a rule of law does not simply execute people without a trial. Note: “show trials exhibited in many parts of the world are not real trials.”

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## buffnut453 (Dec 19, 2022)

All eyes on Minsk:









Ukraine to boost Belarus border defences as Putin meets Lukashenko


Kyiv fears a fresh Russian assault is on the horizon after President Putin travelled to Minsk.



www.bbc.com

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Sorry, but that’s not how the civilized world works…


You can be civilized, if your enemy is! Or at least, while you are fighting "human beings", not terorists. Letting them to be alive, is a big mistake, and to be honest, it really doesn't matter whatever Ukraine desides to do with them. Our Cyberspace worriors have gathered their names, and hunters are looking for them. They can't hide anymore, nor be able to continue their crimes. This was not their war, whatever happens to them or their families, is their own fault.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> You can be civilized, if your enemy is! Or at least, while you are fighting "human beings", not terorists. Letting them to be alive, is a big mistake, and to be honest, it really doesn't matter whatever Ukraine desides to do with them. Our Cyberspace worriors have gathered their names, and hunters are looking for them. They can't hide anymore, nor be able to continue their crimes. This was not their war, whatever happens to them or their families, is their own fault.



That is what sets us apart from those we fight. We care about human life. We care about the rule of law. If you act like them, you are no better than them.

What kind of world do you want your children to live in? I choose a just and civilized one. One that has a just rule of law. 

Maybe that’s why some countries enjoy a better standard and quality of live. We have evolved over time and become civilized.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 19, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> All eyes on Minsk:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Be funny if that was really a body double. Putler hopes the plane gets shot down and he could skip off to Venezuela, no one the wiser.

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That is what sets us apart from those we fight. We care about human life. We care about the rule of law. If you act like them, you are no better than them.
> 
> What kind of world do you want your children to live in? I choose a just and civilized one. One that has a just rule of law.
> 
> Maybe that’s why some countries enjoy a better standard and quality of live. We have evolved over time and become civilized.


Wherever you live, and whatever laws and rules, you have, the fate of traitors and terorists, is death! Either in prison [life time prison] or outside it [killed]. There are many ways to kill someone, bullet is just one of them


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Wherever you live, and whatever laws and rules, you have, the fate of traitors and terorists, is death! Either in prison [life time prison] or outside it [killed]. There are many ways to kill someone, bullet is just one of them



I think we have a difference of opinion in the definition of what “civilized” is, and what rule of law is. Maybe its a cultural thing, and one that I alluded to above regarding evolution and being civilized.

Regardless, this has very little to do with the topic of Ukraine and Russia, nor is there a point to us discussing it. We will never agree, largely on those cultural reasons.

Considering your thoughts, I hope you remain safe…

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What kind of world do you want your children to live in? I choose a just and civilized one. One that has a just rule of law.


Not sure about world, but in future Iran, there will be no sign of religion, in any form or shape, or any other thing that can separate people from each other. They will learn about their own country, it's reach culture and long history, not useless bullshits of a 1400 years old pedophile and his serial killer successor.

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I think we have a difference of opinion in the definition of what “civilized” is, and what rule of law is. Maybe its a cultural thing, and one that I alluded to above regarding evolution and being civilized.
> 
> Regardless, this has very little to do with the topic of Ukraine and Russia, nor is there a point to us discussing it. We will never agree, largely on those cultural reasons.
> 
> Considering your thoughts, I hope you remain safe…


The only relation is that some of "humans" in your opinion, have not only fought on wrong side of a war that has no relation to them, but also have committed multiple crimes, from smallest to biggest, maybe the Ukrainians decide to show them mercy, maybe not. The whole point is that I won't care about their fate.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> The only relation is that some of "humans" in your opinion, have not only fought on wrong side of a war that has no relation to them, but also have committed multiple crimes, from smallest to biggest, maybe the Ukrainians decide to show them mercy, maybe not. The whole point is that I won't care about their fate.



This has nothing to do with fate, but how their fate is decided. Listen, Artesh, in civilized places like the western world, criminals including war criminals and terrorists, are not simply executed with a bullet to the back of their head. They get their day in court, evidence is presented, and the rule of law is followed. Sentences are carried our in a just manner. Exactly how it should be done. Otherwise we would be no better than those we fight. We would not be building a better world for our children.

My opinion is that every human has the given right to stand trial, and that civilized rule of law is all that matters. Otherwise we would be no better than animals.

I will say nothing further on this topic. Have a good evening. Please stay safe.

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## ARTESH (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I will say nothing further on this topic. Have a good evening. Please stay safe.


Thank you, for your time. I hope whatever that is best, happens, and be able to avoid making mistakes that lead to 1979 and following events.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 19, 2022)

Suspects should be tried, and depending on the convictions, imprisoned or perhaps executed. But it should be done under the same legal rubric that Ukraine would treat its own citizens. They are fighting to be a democratic nation run by the rule of law and not emotions.

As understandable as your sentiments may be, it reminds me of the quote that comes to mind, from the German philosopher Nietzsche: "Whoever battles monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster himself. And when you look long into the abyss, the abyss also looks into you."

ETA: Forgive my posting this after the discussion had been concluded. Mods, feel free to delete if you see fit, I'm not trying to shit-stir.

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## MiTasol (Dec 19, 2022)

The best cure for the Iranian drones would be for Ukraine to send a handful of captured Russian soldiers provided with lots of vodka and cigarettes (and matches of course) to visit their Iranian supporters, and their suppliers, in their factories.

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## MiTasol (Dec 19, 2022)

I may well be wrong but I suspect that Artesh has friends or loved ones who have been mistreated, or worse, by the current Iranian regime and that is colouring Artesh's thoughts. 

As the saying goes _*we are the product of our experiences.*_

We who have not experienced the conditions in Iran should consider ourselves very lucky

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Suspects should be tried, and depending on the convictions, imprisoned or perhaps executed. But it should be done under the same legal rubric that Ukraine would treat its own citizens. They are fighting to be a democratic nation run by the rule of law and not emotions.
> 
> As understandable as your sentiments may be, it reminds me of the quote that comes to mind, from the German philosopher Nietzsche: "Whoever battles monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster himself. And when you look long into the abyss, the abyss also looks into you."
> 
> ETA: Forgive my posting this after the discussion had been concluded. Mods, feel free to delete if you see fit, I'm not trying to shit-stir.



Agreed, and well said.

You are more than welcome to continue the discussion. So is Artesh. I just see no point in myself continuing it because it is a debate where neither of us will convince the other.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed, and well said.
> 
> You are more than welcome to continue the discussion. So is Artesh. I just see no point in myself continuing it because it is a debate where neither of us will convince the other.



I've spoken my piece, and I know as well that 

 ARTESH
is a thoughtful man who while he may not agree will listen, so I too will leave it unless there's a question.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I just see no point in myself continuing it because it is a debate where neither of us will convince the other.


And, IMO that’s the point where the few, usually two, posters who care so deeply about something otherwise tangential should go to DMs. As for myself, I keep skipping ahead to find the conclusion of this off topic distraction and a return to things Ukraine related.

Here‘s some potentially good news from Greece. Paywall free version: https://archive.vn/b30LR









Ukraine May Finally Get Greece’s Russian S-300 Missiles


Ukraine would welcome the addition of Greece's S-300s, even though it's acquiring the much more advanced Patriot.




www.forbes.com





And more Leopard 1 derivatives now shipping from Germany.






Germany supplies Ukraine with 12 Bergepanzer 2 recovery vehicles based on Leopard 1 tank chassis | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


Germany supplies Ukraine with 12 Bergepanzer 2 recovery vehicles based tank Leopard 1 chassis




www.armyrecognition.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And, IMO that’s the point where the few, usually two, posters who care so deeply about something otherwise tangential should go to DMs. As for myself, I keep skipping ahead to find the conclusion of this off topic distraction and a return to things Ukraine related.
> 
> Here‘s some potentially good news from Greece.
> 
> ...



Accept its not a topic distraction. This was a discussion about what to do with war criminals or terrorists involved in the fighting. Just because you don’t care or find it important does not mean that other’s don’t. Solution? You already identified it. Scroll past it.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 19, 2022)

The war crimes discussion is Ukraine related.

And those responsible for war crimes/atrocities will most likely end up at the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 19, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Accept its not a topic distraction.


Is that an order?


GrauGeist said:


> And those responsible for war crimes/atrocities will most likely end up at the International Criminal Court in the Hague.


I hope so. But I don’t share your optimism that anything but mid level bit players will end up.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And, IMO that’s the point where the few, usually two, posters who care so deeply about something otherwise tangential should go to DMs. As for myself, I keep skipping ahead to find the conclusion of this off topic distraction and a return to things Ukraine related.
> 
> Here‘s some potentially good news from Greece. Paywall free version: https://archive.vn/b30LR
> 
> ...



I don't know about anyone else here, but my DMs parse very poorly with my software, with lines literally two or three characters long. Very hard to read, I have to copy, paste into word, type my reply, copy and paste again ... it's a pain in the ass, so I use it only very rarely.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Is that an order?



Why the attitude?

Where did I order you to do anything?

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 19, 2022)

You wrote "accept", when I think you meant "except".

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You wrote "accept", when I think you meant "except".



I’ll blame that on auto-correct. 


A
 Admiral Beez
if that is what you were getting at my apologies. I guess I got a lil attitude. My bad. It was not my intent to be a dick, and I was. 🍻

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 19, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> You wrote "accept", when I think you meant "except".



Udo does not approve!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 19, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Udo does not approve!




I see what you did there, well done.

And on that note I have to go off-topic. The last time I saw the great Udo in Nürnberg, Germany.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> On 12 January 1968 Bell UH-1B succeeded in shooting down one An-2 (reportedly the crew used an ak-47, so I assume that the UH-1 was an unarmed variant)
> Considering the max speed of AN-2, anything that is cost effective to shot-down those Iranian drones will have an easy run at those An-2.
> 
> Damn who would have thought that there is a need for machine-gun armed relatively slow piston-engined combat aircraft in XXI century.
> And who would have thought those are needed to fight Russia


We just keep re-learning that low and slow is always going to be needed

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## GrauGeist (Dec 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I hope so. But I don’t share your optimism that anything but mid level bit players will end up.


If any of those responsible can be rounded up and put on trial, it's a start.

Though I admit that I would like nothing more than to use Imperial Roman and later, Medieval forms of execution to all involved - from the top down.

That *may* cause others to take note and avoid the same poor life choices.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> We just keep re-learning that low and slow is always going to be needed



My prayer: "Lord, give me a beer to accept the things I cannot change, and give me an A-10 to change the things I can."

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Though I admit that I would like nothing more than to use Imperial Roman and later, Medieval forms of execution to all involved - from the top down.



I once read a book titled The Book of Execution. Laid out as an encyclopedia of the various means of putting someone to death after (sometimes scanty) judicial review, it was pretty alarming. The medieval and older methods stood out in their, uh, not-family-friendly means.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> If any of those responsible can be rounded up and put on trial, it's a start.
> 
> Though I admit that I would like nothing more than to use Imperial Roman and later, Medieval forms of execution to all involved - from the top down.
> 
> That *may* cause others to take note and avoid the same poor life choices.



It may take time. I doubt Russia hands them over. Usually there is a task force that is set to track them down. 

Look at the series of wars that were fought during the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Years later war criminals were still being captured and sent to the Hague. I was fortunate enough to take part in one such operation. After the suspects were detained, we flew them to a field in the middle or Kosovo where a C-130 was waiting on them for a flight to the Hague.

I’m not sure who they were, we were never told their names, and their faces were covered. I suspect though it was these men here:






Arrestation par la KFOR de Haradin Bala (alias Shala), Isak Musliu (alias Qerqiz) et Agim Murtezi (alias Murrizi) accusés de...







www.nato.int





Also the flights were conducted very hush hush. We were told that many people/supporters did not want them to stand trial and would possibly try and prevent it.

Point though is that war criminals are always hunted, even years and decades later.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I once read a book titled The Book of Execution. Laid out as an encyclopedia of the various means of the various means of putting someone to death after (sometimes scanty) judicial review, it was pretty alarming. The medieval and older methods stood out in their, uh, not-family-friendly means.


In true, public executions in the middle ages (and even in latter periods) were in part to be family friendly and an entertainment:






Hardcore History 61 – (BLITZ) Painfotainment







www.dancarlin.com

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## MiTasol (Dec 20, 2022)

What I do not understand is why Ukraine has not destroyed the electrical and water supply systems in Crimea. Yes they want to recover the area but leaving the Russian military there with full electrical and water services is, to me, a mistake. After 8 years of Russian maintenance these systems are probably on the brink of failure anyway so will need upgrading once the orcs are banished.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 20, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> What I do not understand is why Ukraine has not destroyed the electrical and water supply systems in Crimea. Yes they want to recover the area but leaving the Russian military there with full electrical and water services is, to me, a mistake. After 8 years of Russian maintenance these systems are probably on the brink of failure anyway so will need upgrading once the orcs are banished.


Agreed, though the climate is tropical, so Ivan won’t be freezing. Apparently there were plans to blow up the bridges between Crimea and Kherson if Ivan invades, but the Ukrainian officers in charge betrayed their country. But no matter, now is the time to hit Crimea’s infrastructure.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My prayer: "Lord, give me a beer to accept the things I cannot change, and give me an A-10 to change the things I can."


A-10 may even be too fast for Shahed 136. They reportedly fly slower than A-10 stall speed. So is cruise speed of An-2.
Not to mention that GAU-8 is probably overkill by several orders of magnitude. Nevertheless I assume its cheaper to use than wasting missiles on those drones.

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## ARTESH (Dec 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Agreed, and well said.
> 
> You are more than welcome to continue the discussion. So is Artesh. I just see no point in myself continuing it because it is a debate where neither of us will convince the other.


No Chris, this is not a debate...

First of all, we all believe that criminals and terorists, should be tried, and surely this will happen.

We are just talking about our "fantasy" end, you say you day it would be a modern "civilized" end, i say: no, it must end in extreme violence, so again, we both are saying: it should be ended, by any means necessary.

But reality is, that they won't be tried at all, because of extreme and extended curroption in those useless offices.

Hundreds of thousands reports with evidence about terorists and their activities, were sent to those useless curopted politians, they have done nothing. Unfortunately your so called "civilized" way, won't work for us! It only protects terorists and criminals.

I really wish there was a way, to avoid violence, but this is only way that we can ensure those criminals receive what they really deserve.

Many years have passed from WW2 and still those allied soldiers that commited war crimes, are not charged, from Katyń massacre to rape of German women and girls by Soviet army... Rapists, mass killers, thieves and other criminals, were retired with honor and respect, that they didn't deserve. No one ever dared to talk about these crimes, for years, because criminals were on the winner side. A few privates and rarely corporals and sergeants were showingly executed, but the real ones, were in office for years...

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## ARTESH (Dec 20, 2022)

Oh, and no need to say how much coward are those politicians, as well!

Need examples? Read events after 1979, you will find thousands of examples.


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## ThomasP (Dec 20, 2022)

If the A-10 were used for anti-drone work they could always be outfitted with 5.56/7.62mm minigun pods, or even 20mm pods (so self-destructing HE projectiles could be used). The excellent endurance & loiter capability of the A-10 (upto 6 hours at 150 miles from base) would be useful for standing patrols. Since it seems like most of the Shahed drones are being located and intercepted visually by the pilots, the lack of radar would not seem to be a problem.

Seems like it might be worth revisiting this thread:

"Best WW2 plane for Ukraine today?"

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## swampyankee (Dec 20, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> Oh, and no need to say how much coward are those politicians, as well!
> 
> Need examples? Read events after 1979, you will find thousands of examples.


In many countries, including democratic ones with functional criminal court systems, war crimes are accepted or even actively encouraged, according with one recent administration pardoning perpetrators of war crimes convicted in national, military courts and an earlier administration endorsing torture and even subcontracting it to less-than-democratic allies.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 20, 2022)

This man has yayechka!





RogerdeLluria said:


> A-10 may even be too fast for Shahed 136. Not to mention that GAU-8 is probably overkill by several orders of magnitude. Nevertheless I assume its cheaper to use than *wasting missiles on those drones*.


Large and pricey SAMs, yes. But from what I've read the cheapest and most effective weapon against the Shahed would be the Vampire missiles. Small, highly accurate, relatively cheap at under US$28k per missile, needing only a single projectile to kill (Gepard, for example needs to fire dozens of hard to replace shells to score a single kill), and as mobile as the cheap civilian-spec vehicle moving them.

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## Crimea_River (Dec 20, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> They have raped our girls, their girls have to be raped.



And what daughter deserves to be raped? Just because she was born to a criminal does not make her available to be subjected to the same crimes as her father perpetrated.

I'm sorry but I could not let this go. The pursuit of justice in the matter of war crimes in the war on Ukraine will not involve carrying out eye for an eye sentences on innocent members of criminals' families. Period.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A-10 may even be too fast for Shahed 136. They reportedly fly slower than A-10 stall speed. So is cruise speed of An-2.
> Not to mention that GAU-8 is probably overkill by several orders of magnitude. Nevertheless I assume its cheaper to use than wasting missiles on those drones.


Who cares. I imagine gunnery targets are even slower than the Shahed drones. Just get the A-10 there for all us fanbois. C'mon, free up some air force bucks for stealth mods for the B-52!


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## GrauGeist (Dec 20, 2022)

There's no reason why the A-10 can't be equipped with Perigrine missiles for UAV hunting.

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## ARTESH (Dec 20, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> And what daughter deserves to be raped? Just because she was born to a criminal does not make her available to be subjected to the same crimes as her father perpetrated.
> 
> I'm sorry but I could not let this go. The pursuit of justice in the matter of war crimes in the war on Ukraine will not involve carrying out eye for an eye sentences on innocent members of criminals' families. Period.


That's not only about Ukraine, that's about entire world.

The point is that many of these terorists, have gifted their mothers, wives and doughters to other terorists, like Hezbollah or many other ones. That's the way they have chosen. Many of them were promoted from sergeant to brigadier general, Colonel or lieutenant Colonel for these actions.

But on a second thought, you are more than right!!! It was, is, and will be a severe mistake to do this. An unforgettable and unforgivable one.

Thanks for reminding.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 20, 2022)

ARTESH said:


> They have raped our girls, their girls have to be raped.
> 
> They have killed my compatriots and threatened their families, same have to happened to their friends and families.



SMFH

This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the behavior of animals.. Sorry, but not sorry to say this.

These women and children you say should suffer from “revenge rape” are innocent too. If you do this to them you are nothing more than a criminal yourself, and deserve to be treated as such.

*What crime did these women and children commit? Being born into this world? Being born to a criminal father?*

Same goes for killing innocent family members.

Furthermore, by committing such acts you only breed the next terrorists, because they only see you as the barbarian who killed their innocent child, brother, sister, mother, etc. You only further breed hate, and they want revenge. It is a never ending cycle that must be broken.

*Enough of this. I am sorry, but as a civilized decent human being who cares about human life and enjoys living in a civilized world, this will not be tolerated. This type of thinking is not compatible with civilized life. Time to move on!*

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 20, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> And what daughter deserves to be raped? Just because she was born to a criminal does not make her available to be subjected to the same crimes as her father perpetrated.
> 
> I'm sorry but I could not let this go. The pursuit of justice in the matter of war crimes in the war on Ukraine will not involve carrying out eye for an eye sentences on innocent members of criminals' families. Period.



Thank you! Well said!

And I will not tolerate it either!

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 20, 2022)

Also, everyone needs to remember, we moderators do not do this full time. We have work and families. We have lives outside of this forum. We do not sit around all day looking at every forum post. Sometimes we only review the posts once per day.

So please have some patience, and we don’t need snide comments questioning *“Is there any moderation here?*

We are the doing the best we can. Sometimes it takes time to get to things. A simple report, making us aware of the post is all that is necessary.

I’ve got two sick kids in my house, while trying to work my job. It’s impossible to act on every questionable post at every minute of the day.

Thank you

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## ARTESH (Dec 20, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> SMFH
> 
> This is exactly what I am talking about. I don’t care about cultural differences. This is the bahavior of animals. It is this kind of thinking that thrives in uncivilized cultures. Sorry, but sorry to say this.
> 
> ...


As I said, you're more than true, in this case. My mistake.


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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Large and pricey SAMs, yes. But from what I've read the cheapest and most effective weapon against the Shahed would be the Vampire missiles. Small, highly accurate, relatively cheap at under US$28k per missile, needing only a single projectile to kill (Gepard, for example needs to fire dozens of hard to replace shells to score a single kill), and as mobile as the cheap civilian-spec vehicle moving them.


That is definitely the cheapest I have seen in the missile camp. Though I still think that gunning them down will be more cost effective with the right weapons. A Shahed is assumed to cost less than $20k. Probably 20 mm ammo or even machinegun caliber is more than enough.

As for 35 mm ammo for Gepard, as far as I know it's still in production, 35 mm × 228 HEI/SD and HEI-T/SD - Nammo
Of course, the AHEAD ammo will be the ideal match for drones, but I think Gepards cant use it.


GrauGeist said:


> There's no reason why the A-10 can't be equipped with Perigrine missiles for UAV hunting.


Although cheaper than most current AA missiles, $150K is still far from the $20K cost of the target it intends to destroy.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Although cheaper than most current AA missiles, $150K is still far from the $20K cost of the target it intends to destroy.


However, what is the cost of the target that the $20K UAV is about to destroy?

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## GTX (Dec 20, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> What I do not understand is why Ukraine has not destroyed the electrical and water supply systems in Crimea. Yes they want to recover the area but leaving the Russian military there with full electrical and water services is, to me, a mistake. After 8 years of Russian maintenance these systems are probably on the brink of failure anyway so will need upgrading once the orcs are banished.


Because doing so would make them no better than the Russians and take away any 'moral high ground' they might have.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> This man has yayechka!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This guy's Testis!!!!!

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## GTX (Dec 20, 2022)

Putin says situation in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine 'extremely difficult'


Months after moving to annex four areas of Ukraine in a ceremony at the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin tells his security services the situation there is now "extremely difficult".




 www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 20, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> However, what is the cost of the target that the $20K UAV is about to destroy?


I'm not advocating for letting them get through. I'm advocating for destroying them as cost effectively as possible. Actually stinger is cheaper than Perigrine and doesn't require an aircraft to carry it, just a guy in the ground, but still not cost effective.

Otherwise Russia will actually win the asymmetric drone war. They are using cheap drones to destroy expensive missiles. Once all missiles are gone their air force can fly again over Ukraine. Better save the expensive missiles for the expensive targets and use something else for the cheapo drones. After all you don't need extreme tech to kill something that is slower than my car.
Note: I don't have an expensive sports car, my car is a diesel family car, and yes those drones are actually slower (and from what I read they are noisy as hell)

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 20, 2022)

Interesting thread

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 20, 2022)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 20, 2022)

Will it would be nice to have the A-10 blasting RuAF UAV, how would they locate the UAV at night and/or bad weather?


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## SaparotRob (Dec 20, 2022)

Use the Force, Luke.

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## J_P_C (Dec 20, 2022)



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## Glider (Dec 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed, though the climate is tropical, so Ivan won’t be freezing. Apparently there were plans to blow up the bridges between Crimea and Kherson if Ivan invades, but the Ukrainian officers in charge betrayed their country. But no matter, now is the time to hit Crimea’s infrastructure.


I disagree. I would suggest that the time to knock out the electrical infrastructure in the Crimea is just before you attack with the land forces. Then try to hit as much of it as you can in one go. As the attacks are continuing, the Ukraine are getting better and better at shooting the drones down and just as importantly, getting better at repairing the damage.
Don't give the Russians the same opportunity to learn.

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## Glider (Dec 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> A-10 may even be too fast for Shahed 136. They reportedly fly slower than A-10 stall speed. So is cruise speed of An-2.
> Not to mention that GAU-8 is probably overkill by several orders of magnitude. Nevertheless I assume its cheaper to use than wasting missiles on those drones.


Really, if we all think about it, we know what the Ukraine really need, what they need is a P39

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## GrauGeist (Dec 20, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Will it would be nice to have the A-10 blasting RuAF UAV, how would they locate the UAV at night and/or bad weather?


They are capable of operating, finding and attacking targets in all weather conditions and day or night.









A-10C Thunderbolt II


The A-10C Thunderbolt II is the first Air Force aircraft specially designed for close air support of ground forces. They are simple, effective and survivable twin-engine jet aircraft that can be used



www.af.mil

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Although cheaper than most current AA missiles, $150K is still far from the $20K cost of the target it intends to destroy.



And what price tag should we place on the lives that will be lost, directly and indirectly, to these drones. If you're the Ukrainian military, you will be using whatever you have and you'll figure out how to balance the books later.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

GTX said:


> Because doing so would make them no better than the Russians and take away any 'moral high ground' they might have.



Not to mention using valuable weapons better used to kill Russian soldiers squatting on Ukrainian soil.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 20, 2022)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>

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## Glider (Dec 20, 2022)

I do hope that there is a special place in hell for people who do this kind of thing

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

Glider said:


> I do hope that there is a special place in hell for people who do this kind of thing



Hopefully we can bring them to justice in this world, where we can see it unfold.

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## fubar57 (Dec 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Hopefully we can bring them to justice in this world, where we can see it unfold.


Never give up hope on how long it might take..... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/irmgard-furchner-nazi-concentration-camp-secretary-trial-1.6691972

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> Never give up hope on how long it might take..... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/irmgard-furchner-nazi-concentration-camp-secretary-trial-1.6691972



I hope these scum ponder that as they think back on the evils they perpetrated on this lad and how many others?


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 20, 2022)

Zelensky is expected to make a trip to Washington to meet Biden and address Congress on Wednesday.







www.nytimes.com

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## WARSPITER (Dec 20, 2022)

Glider said:


> Really, if we all think about it, we know what the Ukraine really need, what they need is a P39


Every time I think it's safe somebody has to mention Voldemort.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 20, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Every time I think it's safe somebody has to mention Voldemort.











P39 road (Ukraine) - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 20, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> P39 road (Ukraine) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Note that it runs entirely upon the ground ... for all of 45 miles. Sound familiar?

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## WARSPITER (Dec 20, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Note that it runs entirely upon the ground ... for all of 45 miles. Sound familiar?


Yeah, you have to watch out for dips and potholes though as they play merry hell with the centre of gravity. Unless
your vehicle has an armoured nose of course.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 21, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Yeah, you have to watch out for dips and potholes though as they play merry hell with the centre of gravity. Unless
> your vehicle has an armoured nose of course.



Every airplane needs a plough, amirite?

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## wlewisiii (Dec 21, 2022)

No comment to avoid crossing lines.

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## swampyankee (Dec 21, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> SMFH
> 
> This is exactly what I am talking about. This is the behavior of animals.. Sorry, but not sorry to say this.
> 
> ...


Bravo

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 21, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> No comment to avoid crossing lines.



The Russians have to have considered finding and shooting down Zelenskyy’s flight to Washington. They’ve already shot down a civilian airliner, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, so that’s no big moral leap. Presumably to avoid this Zelenskyy traveled overland to Poland before boarding a US military aircraft. So, now the Russians will be thinking how to kill Zelenskyy whilst in the US on his return transit.

I hope this visit results in longer range land attack missiles and artillery, additional advanced SAMs, western tanks and combat aircraft going to Ukraine in 1Q23. On the latter two, the US and NATO have had ten months to train the AFU on how to operate, maintain and logistically support western MBTs, fighter jets and attack helicopters.

From July 2022, for example Slava Ukraine! US Approves To Train Ukrainian Pilots On US Fighter Jets Like F-16, F-15EX. But There's A Catch









Romania Is a Model for Training Ukraine's Pilots to Fly F-16s | Air & Space Forces Magazine


U.S. lawmakers worry want Ukrainian pilots learn to fly the F-16. Romania offers a case study for how that could go.




www.airandspaceforces.com

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## buffnut453 (Dec 21, 2022)

Breaking news...the war in Ukraine isn't Russia's fault. Glad we cleared that up:









Ukraine war: Russia not to blame for conflict - Putin


President Vladimir Putin claims he still continues to see Ukraine as a brotherly nation.



www.bbc.com





For the record, my sarcasm dial was turned WAAAYYYY up when I wrote the intro statement to this post....just in case anyone thinks I'm being even remotely serious.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 21, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Breaking news...the war in Ukraine isn't Russia's fault. Glad we cleared that up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I never had any doubt. When an ex- begins to seek a new life after breaking free from years of abuse, it's just natural for the abuser to want to murder them. It's not the abuser's fault. Right?

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/learning-from-the-war-in-ukraine

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

Zelenskyy heads to US for Biden talks, as Russia's Medvedev visits Beijing


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet President Joe Biden in Washington, as former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev makes a surprise visit to Beijing.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

'The hottest spot on the entire front line': Zelenskyy visits troops in Bakhmut


Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with military personnel in a dimly lit building while Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the "courage and self-denial" of his forces in Ukraine in an opulent and glittering hall at the Kremlin in Moscow.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

When Zelenskyy addresses a joint session of the US Senate and House of Representatives, I wonder if we will see a replay of these two loyal subjects of Russia heckling:

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## at6 (Dec 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> When Zelenskyy addresses a joint session of the US Senate and House of Representatives, I wonder if we will see a replay of these two loyal subjects of Russia heckling:
> 
> View attachment 699497


Instead of being in Congress, these two should be pole dancing in a nudie bar.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> When Zelenskyy addresses a joint session of the US Senate and House of Representatives, I wonder if we will see a replay of these two loyal subjects of Russia heckling:
> 
> View attachment 699497


I’m looking forward to it. President Zelenskyy does not only speak English, he‘s a professional stage comedian. Bring on the hecklers.

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I’m looking forward to it. President Zelenskyy does not only speak English, he‘s a professional stage comedian. Bring on the hecklers.


Hell yeah!!!

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## GrauGeist (Dec 21, 2022)

Better still, invite the hecklers to leave the comfort and safety of their country and tour Ukraine to get an educated idea of what's going on in the real world.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 21, 2022)

I don’t get why any American would be against US support of Ukraine. The majority reason the US has a postwar military whatsoever is to prepare to smack the Russians and deter the Chinese, along with keeping both Russia and China’s 3d world vassals in check. With this in mind, the US gets to accomplish all these goals, gets to near-irrecoverably kneecap the Russian military and for a generation destroy Russia’s prestige and influence in the world, all for a fraction of what it would cost the US to do it directly, and with zero American lives risked or lost.

When this is over in 2024, with half a million dead Russians alongside a shattered Russian military and economy, a strong and united NATO, and Western defence spending and capability stronger than ever before this century, it will have been a huge victory for the US.

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-200th-brigade-decimated-ukraine/

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

US to send $1.8 billion in aid, Patriot battery, to Ukraine


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will send $1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in a massive package that will for the first time include a Patriot missile battery and precision guided bombs for their fighter jets, U.S.




apnews.com

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t get why any American would be against US support of Ukraine. The majority reason the US has a postwar military whatsoever is to prepare to smack the Russians and deter the Chinese, along with keeping both Russia and China’s 3d world vassals in check. With this in mind, the US gets to accomplish all these goals, gets to near-irrecoverably kneecap the Russian military and for a generation destroy Russia’s prestige and influence in the world, all for a fraction of what it would cost the US to do it directly, and with zero American lives risked or lost.
> 
> When this is over in 2024, with half a million dead Russians alongside a shattered Russian military and economy, a strong and united NATO, and Western defence spending and capability stronger than ever before this century, it will have been a huge victory for the US.


It's that warped idea that anything your political opponent is doing must be opposed.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t get why any American would be against US support of Ukraine. The majority reason the US has a postwar military whatsoever is to prepare to smack the Russians and deter the Chinese, along with keeping both Russia and China’s 3d world vassals in check. With this in mind, the US gets to accomplish all these goals, gets to near-irrecoverably kneecap the Russian military and for a generation destroy Russia’s prestige and influence in the world, all for a fraction of what it would cost the US to do it directly, and with zero American lives risked or lost.
> 
> When this is over in 2024, with half a million dead Russians alongside a shattered Russian military and economy, a strong and united NATO, and Western defence spending and capability stronger than ever before this century, it will have been a huge victory for the US.


There is a faction, mostly among younger Americans, who beleive Putin is a great leader and is acting rightfully.

The problem here, is that their lack of world history colors their grasp of current events and aren't given to critical thinking, but instead, base their opinions on well worded misinformation sources.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> There is a faction, mostly among younger Americans, who beleive Putin is a great leader and is acting rightfully.
> 
> The problem here, is that their lack of world history colors their grasp of current events and aren't given to critical thinking, but instead, base their opinions on well worded misinformation sources.



In my neck of the woods it isn’t because they are young that they believe Putin is a great leader. In fact most are not young. They do watch a certain news source though. I’ll leave it at that, because *we all* are starting to go down another rabbit hole we should not go.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 21, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The problem here, is that their lack of world history colors their grasp of current events and aren't given to critical thinking, but instead, base their opinions on well worded misinformation sources.



Like those 2 talking heads, one a professor the other a retired US Army colonel, who were spouting about how successful Russia is being. 

When reviewing/watching any news article or opinion piece, it's as important to listen for what's NOT being said as it is to question the points that are made.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 21, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> Negotiations continue - but quietly.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Fingers crossed that negotiations you posted in Sept will lead to an announcement tomorrow, or unannounced action on F-16s and Patriots in January.

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## GTX (Dec 21, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets Joe Biden as the US pledges billions more for Ukraine defence


The visit is the Ukraine president's first overseas trip since Russia invaded 300 days ago and comes after the US has announced another $US1.85 billion ($2.75 billion) in military aid for Ukraine including a Patriot air defence system.




www.abc.net.au













Live: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is holding a press conference in Washington with Joe Biden


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the United States' capital to meet with President Joe Biden and address the US Congress during his first known overseas trip since Russia's invasion.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> When this is over in 2024, with half a million dead Russians alongside a shattered Russian military and economy, a strong and united NATO, and Western defence spending and capability stronger than ever before this century, it will have been a huge victory for the US democracies the world over.



Forgive the correction, but I think it's more accurate.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 21, 2022)

GTX said:


> US to send $1.8 billion in aid, Patriot battery, to Ukraine
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will send $1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in a massive package that will for the first time include a Patriot missile battery and precision guided bombs for their fighter jets, U.S.
> ...



Fornication affirmative!

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 21, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Fornication affirmative!


Nice. And the JDAMs, “_used to modify massive bombs by adding tail fins and precision navigation systems so that they can be released and guided to a target_“ combined with AGM-88 HARM will make the AFU’s MiG-29 and Su-25 far deadlier than their designers at Mikoyan and Sukhoi back in the 1970s may have ever anticipated.

JDAM have a range of 15 miles on a 2000 pound bomb. Mig-29 have an operational range of over 400 miles. HARM's can knock out the S-300/400's. Is this the end of the Kerch bridge?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. And the JDAMs, “_used to modify massive bombs by adding tail fins and precision navigation systems so that they can be released and guided to a target_“ combined with AGM-88 HARM will make the AFU’s MiG-29 and Su-25 far deadlier than their designers at Mikoyan and Sukhoi back in the 1970s may have ever anticipated.
> 
> JDAM have a range of 15 miles on a 2000 pound bomb. Mig-29 have an operational range of over 400 miles. HARM's can knock out the S-300/400's. Is this the end of the Kerch bridge?



The JDAM kits are built just down the road from me. Another fine Boeing product.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 21, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Nice. And the JDAMs, “_used to modify massive bombs by adding tail fins and precision navigation systems so that they can be released and guided to a target_“ combined with AGM-88 HARM will make the AFU’s MiG-29 and Su-25 far deadlier than their designers at Mikoyan and Sukhoi back in the 1970s may have ever anticipated.
> 
> JDAM have a range of 15 miles on a 2000 pound bomb. Mig-29 have an operational range of over 400 miles. HARM's can knock out the S-300/400's. Is this the end of the Kerch bridge?



JDAMs are great because they are essentially kits that with the right programming will turn any iron bomb into a guided weapon.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 21, 2022)

I don’t see Gepard so I’m not sure if it’s current, but still interesting.

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## MiTasol (Dec 21, 2022)

at6 said:


> Instead of being in Congress, these two should be pole dancing in a nudie bar.



for deaf people

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> I don’t get why any American would be against US support of Ukraine. The majority reason the US has a postwar military whatsoever is to prepare to smack the Russians and deter the Chinese, along with keeping both Russia and China’s 3d world vassals in check. With this in mind, the US gets to accomplish all these goals, gets to near-irrecoverably kneecap the Russian military and for a generation destroy Russia’s prestige and influence in the world, all for a fraction of what it would cost the US to do it directly, and with zero American lives risked or lost.
> 
> When this is over in 2024, with half a million dead Russians alongside a shattered Russian military and economy, a strong and united NATO, and Western defence spending and capability stronger than ever before this century, it will have been a huge victory for the US.


Actually, there are quite a few Americans, Canadians, Englishmen, and others in Ukraine in a variety of capacities, from tourists to technicians, to soldiers of fortune. I personally know one "tourist" who has made several trips since the outbreak of the "special military operation" who brings in supplies to help a family he has connections with. My sons tell me of former military, who are there either fighting with the International Brigade, or acting as advisers. I don't know if the latter have official sanction to be there, but they are willing to risk their lives to directly support the Ukrainians resist Putin's aggression.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 22, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Actually, there are quite a few Americans, Canadians, Englishmen, and others in Ukraine in a variety of capacities, from tourists to technicians, to soldiers of fortune. I personally know one "tourist" who has made several trips since the outbreak of the "special military operation" who brings in supplies to help a family he has connections with. My sons tell me of former military, who are there either fighting with the International Brigade, or acting as advisers. I don't know if the latter have official sanction to be there, but they are willing to risk their lives to directly support the Ukrainians resist Putin's aggression.


This last summer, Harrison (a forum member) travelled to Ukraine to help instruct firefighters and EMTs.
.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

How disrespectful…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Zelensky wows Washington with inspiring address to Congress


“It’s too much for me,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told members of Congress at the beginning of a powerful, often emotional address Wednesday evening in which he cast his nation’s struggle against Russia as an existential, global battle for freedom.




www.yahoo.com

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 22, 2022)

A Ukrainian military captain asked Zelenskyy to give Biden a medal he had won for his service: 'Give it to a very brave president'

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## wlewisiii (Dec 22, 2022)



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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 22, 2022)

So beautiful !!!

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 22, 2022)

About Russia's Nuclear Threats


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-putin-threat/672491/

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How disrespectful…



If it’s a big deal to their constituents the voters will punish them. I’d rather have a system that allows the freedom to not applaud than one where applause is mandatory. 



The freedom to be a publicly-contrarian idiot without fear of a Dear Leader’s violent reprisal must be cherished.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> If it’s a big deal to their constituents the voters will punish them. *I’d rather have a system that allows the freedom to not applaud than one where applause is mandatory. *



Did I say otherwise? Please show me where.

However, there is a thing called decency and respect, and sitting around and staring at your iPhone while the leader of another country is speaking to you directly is pretty damn childish, rude, and disrespectful.

It’s not surprising, however, coming from this uncultured and uneducated girl and her child molesting friend. The fact that these two even are sitting here says a lot about the voters.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Did I say otherwise?


Sigh. Get your morning coffee and take a breath. I‘m posting my opinion, and made no claim as to whether you think politicians’ freedom of speech and expression is a good thing or not. I’m not a mind reader.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Sigh. Get your morning coffee and take a breath. I‘m posting my opinion, and made no claim as to whether you think politicians’ freedom of speech and expression is a good thing or not. I’m not a mind reader.



 I need more than coffee this morning.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I need more than coffee this morning.


Going to get my second now. I’m procrastinating, as I’ve started taking adult piano lessons, with absoutley zero musical playing history in my 50+ bones, and the varnished wood and ivory beast is staring at me from across the livingroom. Okay, time to go.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 22, 2022)

Top russian injured, spared from death by inches it seems:









Russia-Ukraine war: Top official Rogozin wounded in Ukrainian shelling


Ex-deputy PM Dmitry Rogozin was hurt in an attack on a hotel in Russian-occupied Donetsk.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How disrespectful…



You would think those 2 would know how to read the room.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 22, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> So beautiful !!!



That'll rattle some windows.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 22, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> That'll rattle some windows.


What I liked about the video, is that we get to see the moment Russian eardrums were shattering in slo-mo.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> What I liked about the video, is that we get to see the moment Russian eardrums were shattering in slo-mo.


That’s what I like about you, Dave. You always see the big picture.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 22, 2022)

The making of a young Hero of Ukraine


Quentin Sommerville traces the journey of a 22 year old from the start of the war to being awarded the highest honour for bravery.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> How disrespectful…



I suppose it's a step up from screaming and heckling though I must admit it would have been amusing to see how Zelensky would have put them down if they had. Still shows how pathetic this lot are. Ah well, I am sure their loyalty will be rewarded by their Russian friends.

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

Interesting if true: Xi Jinping 'demands letter from Vladimir Putin explaining how and when the Ukraine war will end'

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

Russia warns more US weapons to Ukraine will aggravate war as Kremlin mulls boosting troops


The Kremlin warns that increasing the supply of US weapons to Ukraine will aggravate the war with Russia's defence minister calling for an expansion of Moscow's military by at least 500,000 troops.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

Why the US sending Patriot air-defence systems to Ukraine isn't just about hitting Russian missiles


The Biden administration has finally agreed to send its most advanced air-defence system to Ukraine to help repel Russian aerial attacks. But analysts say the move is less about weapons and missiles, and much more about politics.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Zelensky wows Washington with inspiring address to Congress
> 
> 
> “It’s too much for me,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told members of Congress at the beginning of a powerful, often emotional address Wednesday evening in which he cast his nation’s struggle against Russia as an existential, global battle for freedom.
> ...


Quote from article: "_Especially striking on Wednesday night was the sight of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties rising to enthusiastically cheer the Ukrainian president as he spoke in confident, assertive English."_

Now what will be disturbing to see is if some of these same then vote to try to cut support as they have been threatening to do.

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## GTX (Dec 22, 2022)

Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves

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## wlewisiii (Dec 22, 2022)

Seems the Admiral Kuznetsov has caught fire again. Story from Newsbleat er, Newsweek.

Russia's Only Aircraft Carrier Catches Fire

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## wlewisiii (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves


Pity it's behind a paywall. Ah private tab works...


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## GrauGeist (Dec 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Seems the Admiral Kuznetsov has caught fire again. Story from Newsbleat er, Newsweek.
> 
> Russia's Only Aircraft Carrier Catches Fire


I'm wondering if the carrier will come with a new ocean-going tug when it returns to service in 2024...

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia warns more US weapons to Ukraine will aggravate war as Kremlin mulls boosting troops
> 
> 
> The Kremlin warns that increasing the supply of US weapons to Ukraine will aggravate the war with Russia's defence minister calling for an expansion of Moscow's military by at least 500,000 troops.
> ...


Oh yeah, of course it will aggravate war. Specially for Russia

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Seems the Admiral Kuznetsov has caught fire again. Story from Newsbleat er, Newsweek.
> 
> Russia's Only Aircraft Carrier Catches Fire



Can they please sail it into the Black Sea? I hear the Moskva is lonely.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Can they please sail it into the Black Sea? I hear the Moskva is lonely.


I doubt it can make it before the war ends. Certainly not under her own power.

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## Dana Bell (Dec 22, 2022)

Gents,

I'm trying to stay out of the political side of this, and I certainly want to see the Ukraine supported militarily, however I would point out two things in response to some of the heavily political post recently shared here:

The Ukraine has a long history of corruption, including spending major money to influence American politicians. While we must support them militarily, that doesn't mean that we should simply shovel money at the problem. We should be certain that we're supporting the military without seeing too much siphoned off for other interests. If we send American weapons, are we funding replenishment of our own military.

Second, some of those crying most loudly are the same folks who sent blankets when the Russians stole Crimea. Why would the Russians have expected anything different from us when those same folks returned to power in this country.

No matter how outragious some of our Republican, Democrat, or Independent leaders are, once they become the subject of ridicule on this group I consider it a violation of the no politics rule. Someone, somewhere disagrees, even if it isn't me.

Cheers,



Dana

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 22, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm wondering if the carrier will come with a new ocean-going tug when it returns to service in 2024...


It will not return to service.

Defense budged is already being sucked by Ukraine war. And, when the war ends, Russia will need at least a decade to just rebuild its armed forces, where a shitty carrier that needs to be constantly accompanied by several Tugs won't be a priority. Not to mention Russia's economy will be badly hurt.

Nope, Admiral Kuznetsov will rot in it's shipyard only to be eventually scraped 10 years from now.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 22, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> The Ukraine has a long history of corruption


The Russian invasion in 2014 is a direct result of Ukraine ousting corrupt politicians, clamping down on corruption itself and striving for a more western based democracy.

This is the core of what's going on today - Russia is angry that Ukraine is no longer a corrupt puppet of the Kremlin and intends to bring Ukraine back into the fold.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 22, 2022)

Unsurprisingly, Zelensky's US visit "shows that Ukraine and the US don't want peace." And, of course, defensive weapon systems like Patriot are, in Moscow's mind, escalating the conflict.









Ukraine war: Zelensky's visit shows neither Ukraine nor US want peace, Russia says


Moscow accuses the US of fighting an indirect war with Russia as Ukraine's leader visits Washington.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Interesting if true: Xi Jinping 'demands letter from Vladimir Putin explaining how and when the Ukraine war will end'



Only masters can make demands.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

There has been no violation of the no politics rule. *There is a specific type of political talk we do not allow.* Everything about the war is political, should we also stop talking about WW2 too? It has politics written all over it.

Let’s also be honest. If the “offending posts” were about people on the other side of the aisle, the people complaining would either “agree” or be quiet. And that is 100% fact. Let’s not kid ourselves here. It works both ways.

The posts I assume that are offending, were not political, but rather about the specific act they were doing during a speech by a world leader directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That is what we are discussing in this thread right?

There were also some posts about the people that think Putin is just in his war. Some say its because they are naive and young (Maybe). Those particular people also tend to watch a lot of Comrade Carlson (Thats not political either, he is simply a douche).

None of the posts were about a political party or its ideology, or about any policy and its merit. Nor where they attacking a party or its policies. The politics being discussed, however, do pertain directly to the war. Since we stated over and over we have EASED the no-politics rule so that this conflict can be discussed, what is the big deal?

Now having said that…

EVERYONE SHOULD BE FULLY AWARE OF THE TYPE OF POLITICAL DISCUSSION THAT IS NOT ALLOWED. AND THIS TYPE OF POLITICAL DISCUSSION IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE ALLOWED BY ANYONE. MODERATING STAFF INCLUDED.

*(The All Caps was not me yelling at anyone, just emphasizing the intent of the No Politics Rule.)*

As long as that political discussion is not taking place, what is the problem? It’s too easy just to scroll past posts you don’t like anyhow (Hint to one member who keeps reporting every single post he does not like. Even ones in the Joke thread. You know who you are.  ) *That’s the problem with this world today, you can’t say anything without fear of someone being offended. And that goes for everyone.*

Lighten up, and lets enjoy conversing different views without being overly political and insulting. Life’s too short my friends.

Edit: I did comment on the type of people that would elect a child molester and sex trafficker. I guess that was pretty close to being to political. I’ll refrain from that going forward, however, the point still stands character wise.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Unsurprisingly, Zelensky's US visit "shows that Ukraine and the US don't want peace."




I wouldn't make peace with an armed burglar, either; I'd shoot him in the face and then call an ambulance.

Fuck Putin.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I wouldn't peace with an armed burglar, either. I'd want an ambulance or hearse for him.
> 
> He can have peace if he wants it. The fact his troops are still there invading, the fact that his missiles are still aimed at freezing Ukrainian civilians to death, tells everyone in the world how strongly he desires peace. If he wants peace, all he has to do is stop making war.
> 
> ...



Agreed. Vladolf Putler can have peace once he removes all Russian troops from Ukrainian lands. Until then he can pack sand.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Quote from article: "_Especially striking on Wednesday night was the sight of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties rising to enthusiastically cheer the Ukrainian president as he spoke in confident, assertive English."_
> 
> Now what will be disturbing to see is if some of these same then vote to try to cut support as they have been threatening to do.



I'll not go into how I read the tea leaves here in America, by dint of the rules of the forum, but suffice it to say that the "let's not support the Ukrainians" element is smaller than our media makes it seem. I think they're only getting headlines precisely because their view is pretty unpopular.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves



All I'm getting is a headline, no article.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I go into how I read the tea leaves here by dint of the rules, but suffice it to say that the "let's not support the Ukrainians" element is smaller than our media makes it seem. I think they're only getting headlines precisely because their view is pretty unpopular.



I agree. I think these people are a vast minority, but they happen to be pretty loud. Additionally since their “opinion” is an unpopular one, it attracts a lot of attention.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> All I'm getting is a headline, no article.



You have to be a paid subscriber. I am not…


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> You have to be a paid subscriber. I am not…



I am a subscriber. It's not even letting me sign in.


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## MiTasol (Dec 22, 2022)

GTX said:


> Quote from article: "_Especially striking on Wednesday night was the sight of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties rising to enthusiastically cheer the Ukrainian president as he spoke in confident, assertive English."_
> 
> *Now what will be disturbing to see is if some of these same then vote to try to cut support as they have been threatening to do.*



Of course they will unless Dear Leader removes his support for the poo tin

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I am a subscriber.



Then…

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Of course they will unless Dear Leader removes his support for the poo tin



And on that note, we can refrain from wording our posts in a manner that goes down the political rabbit hole we don’t want. Right?

Pretty damn close to the stuff we don’t allow here.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Then…
> 
> View attachment 699653



They have a problem ... a cancellation.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine


Putin made the comments a day after U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House and promised him continued and unwavering U.S. support. "Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war," Putin said...




www.yahoo.com





Except Putler’s idea on ending the war is Ukraine surrendering the lands Russia has illegally taken.

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## Glider (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Only masters can make demands.


And the Chinese are making them, to Russia

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Caught on Camera, Traced by Phone: The Russian Military Unit That Killed Dozens in Bucha


Exclusive evidence obtained in a monthslong investigation identifies the Russian regiment — and commander — behind one of the worst atrocities in Ukraine.




www.nytimes.com

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## wlewisiii (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Caught on Camera, Traced by Phone: The Russian Military Unit That Killed Dozens in Bucha
> 
> 
> Exclusive evidence obtained in a monthslong investigation identifies the Russian regiment — and commander — behind one of the worst atrocities in Ukraine.
> ...


Things like this make me wish for a real James Bond to rendition that Lt. Col. to The Hague.

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## Dana Bell (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There has been no violation of the no politics rule. *There is a specific type of political talk we do not allow.* Everything about the war is political, should we also stop talking about WW2 too? It has politics written all over it.
> 
> Let’s also be honest. If the “offending posts” were about people on the other side of the aisle, the people complaining would either “agree” or be quiet. And that is 100% fact. Let’s not kid ourselves here. It works both ways.
> 
> ...



Hi Der Adler,

Despite my recent outburst several days back (I'm still trying to figure what I thought I'd accomplish), I think we're on the same page, though still separated on a few points.

Your opening sentence noted that there had been no violation of the politics rule, but your closing sentence cautioned against being overly insulting. Your edit reflected on an earlier comment, and I can appreciate that.

There were several recent insulting comments which drew my response. Notes that loyalty will be rewarded by Russian friends, that congressmen can be loyal subjects of Russia, who should be pole dancing in a nudie bar. Or perhaps the recent comment that calls a Fox news commentator "comrade" and a douche...

My final point (before I'm banned?) is that those comments are highly insulting. I doubt anyone here would accept those descriptions if they were leveled at anyone we cared about. I just get my undies twisted when those comments are tossed about folks on my side of the isle, even if I don't agree with those folks. I'm just being honest because - as I see it - that's 100% fact.

So, with that in mind, regardless of our sides of the isle, best wishes for Christmas and the new year and every other holiday we can celebrate.


Dana

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> Hi Der Adler,
> 
> Despite my recent outburst several days back (I'm still trying to figure what I thought I'd accomplish), I think we're on the same page, though still separated on a few points.
> 
> ...



Well yeah, Comrade Carlson is a douche and Putin’s employee of the month. Gaetz is a child sex trafficker (That’s the lowest of the lowest). And Boebert and Green are fake news conspiracy nuts. It is what it is.

Let’s be honest here, if I insulted number 47 (and I can think of a lot of reasons to) would you really care? I doubt it.

*And why would I ban you? You have done nothing wrong. Am I that much of an asshole that you think I will ban you? 

People do not get banned for speaking their mind in a civil manner. We all have differences of opinions. We will not see eye to eye from time to time. And thankfully so, life, let alone this forum would be boring if we all agreed 100% of the time.*

I think its funny that you say we are on the opposite side of the aisle. Tell me what side I’m on? I can tell you I sit on neither one, but I think my voting record would surprise you.

Merry Christmas, and Happy not Banning you.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

And now can we return to the regularly scheduled programming of discussing the Ukraine War, and its valiant fight against the Orc?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

Glider said:


> And the Chinese are making them, to Russia



Mazactly. To quote Lenin, "Who -- whom?"


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## SaparotRob (Dec 22, 2022)

Is Russia pulling more equipment from its east? I believe stuff was pulled out of Kaliningrad (that must have been an interesting route). Putin might just be listening to Xi. Putler doesn't have much left to keep China out of Haishenwai. Probably easier than fighting India over rocks.

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## Dana Bell (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> There has been no violation of the no politics rule. *There is a specific type of political talk we do not allow.* Everything about the war is political, should we also stop talking about WW2 too? It has politics written all over it.
> 
> Let’s also be honest. If the “offending posts” were about people on the other side of the aisle, the people complaining would either “agree” or be quiet. And that is 100% fact. Let’s not kid ourselves here. It works both ways.
> 
> ...



Hi Der Adler,

Despite my recent outburst several days back (I'm still trying to figure what I thought I'd accomplish), I think we're on the same page, though still separated on a few points.

Your opening sentence noted that there had been no violation of the politics rule, but your closing sentence cautioned against being overly insulting. Your edit reflected on an earlier comment, and I can appreciate that.

There were several recent insulting comments which drew my response. Notes that loyalty will be rewarded by Russian friends, that congressmen can be loyal subjects of Russia, who are


DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Well yeah, Comrade Carlson is a douche and Putin’s employee of the month. Gaetz is a child sex trafficker (That’s the lowest of the lowest). And Boebert and Green are fake news conspiracy nuts. It is what it is.
> 
> Let’s be honest here, if I insulted number 47 (and I can think of a lot) would you really care? I doubt it.
> 
> ...



Well yeah, Comrade Carlson is a douche... I should have realized you would know.

I don't care which side you're on - I only care how you treat the other side.

As much as I enjoy my periodic visits to this site, I'm going to skip out over a fundimental disagreement about what's acceptable here.

Dana


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> As much as I enjoy my periodic visits to this site, I'm going to skip out over a fundimental disagreement about what's acceptable here.
> 
> Dana



I don't see that as needed myself. First, you bring a lot to the table. Second, and more to the point, when I want to vent politically, I have other sites that I go to where that is permitted.

Each site has its own rules, and I just design my surfing around that so that when I want to discuss one topic I've got one site, when I want to discuss another I go elsewhere, and so on. It'd be a shame to lose your knowledge over something this menial, it seems to me. 

I think what's being said here is that as Clausewitz noted, war is an extension of politics, but there's a difference between politics and partisanship. Politics is being tolerated in this thread, because it is driving this war; but partisanship is different in that it brings up internal divides that tend to devolve into a mess.

That is not aimed at you, just so you know. I'm pretty sure we don't agree politically, but who cares? There are forums to hash out political arguments, and I take my own to those spots.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> Well yeah, Comrade Carlson is a douche... I should have realized you would know.
> 
> I don't care which side you're on - I only care how you treat the other side.
> 
> ...



That is your choice. I hate to see you go, but I won’t beg you to stay. Peace be with you my friend.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I don't see that as needed myself. First, you bring a lot to the table. Second, and more to the point, when I want to vent politically, I have other sites that I go to where that is permitted.
> 
> Each site has its own rules, and I just design my surfing around that so that when I want to discuss one topic I've got one site, when I want to discuss another I go elsewhere, and so on. It'd be a shame to lose your knowledge over something this menial, it seems to me.
> 
> ...



Well said on all accounts.

You always prove to be a very level headed poster. I wish everyone is the same. Its very sad that partisanship destroys so many things.

Thanks for being here my friend.

And for the record. I don’t have anything against either side of the coin. I have something against individuals though from both sides of the coin. And in the context of this thread and topic, I have a problem with the four people I mentioned, not because of their party, but because of their actions and behavior. Fortunately I think most on both sides only want the best, and are willing to work together to do so.

Now seriously, can we please rejoin the regularly scheduled programming of the Ukraine War?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

What I find funny here is that Putin says the US supplying weapons to Ukraine aggravates the war, but its ok for Syria, Iran, and North Korea to supply Russia.

My bad, I need to stop finding logic in Putin’s thinking.

Kremlin warning: More US arms to Ukraine will aggravate war

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Putin claims Russia wanted to join civilised world but never made it happen


Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has stated that the Russian Federation has always wanted to be a part of the civilised world, but never became it. Source: Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti Quote: "We always wanted to be a part of this so-called civilised world.




www.yahoo.com

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

I think he is right…

_“How does this war end?" Graham said. "When Russia breaks and they take Putin out. Anything short of that, the war's gonna continue. To ask the Ukrainians to give Russia part of their country after all this death and destruction is not gonna happen. To signal a ceasefire, Russia will take the opportunity to rearm and come at them again. So, we're in it to win it and the only way you're gonna win it is to break the Russian military and have somebody in Russia take Putin out to give the Russian people a new lease on life.”_









Lindsey Graham Says Ukraine War Won't End Unless Russians Take Out Putin


The Republican senator offered his not-so-diplomatic take as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Washington.




www.yahoo.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 22, 2022)

That’s chutzpah.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Putin claims Russia wanted to join civilised world but never made it happen
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has stated that the Russian Federation has always wanted to be a part of the civilised world, but never became it. Source: Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti Quote: "We always wanted to be a part of this so-called civilised world.
> ...



They can get a good start by not trying to kill civilians. No nation's hands are clean of blood, to be fair, and that includes my own, but let's face it: like many other nations, Russia may only learn this lesson at the hands of the people it's trying to subjugate.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 22, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> They can get a good start by not trying to kill civilians. No nation's hands are clean of blood, to be fair, and that includes my own, but let's face it: like many other nations, Russia may only learn this lesson at the hands of the people it's trying to subjugate.



I agree that no nation’s hands are clean of blood (ours included), but I am firm believer some make more of an effort to prevent. Some don’t seem to care at all, or even have a care for human life. Russia’s government seems to be the latter.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 22, 2022)

Interesting - Russia wants to be "part of a civilized world".
Perhaps if they tried to be civilized, the world would accept them. Invading sovereign nations and creating enclaves is not how it works.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 22, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree that no nation’s hands are clean of blood (ours included), but I am firm believer some make more of an effort to prevent. Some don’t seem to care at all, or even have a care for human life. Russia’s government seems to be the latter.



Right, this is not a black/white-either/or matter. The world is sloppy and nuanced, and applying rigid, dichotomous thinking is a trap. It's a continuum, where nations and individuals slide along a scale.

A nation whose soldiers torture 14-yr-old lads is further down that scale. A civilized nation forbids its soldiers doing that, and prosecutes them as they find them. 

It's a difficult subject, considering Hiroshima, Dresden, etc. Again, nobody has clean hands. But at least we try. That counts for something, doesn't it?

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## at6 (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> You would think those 2 would know how to read the room.


When he spoke, it was the very first time that I've ever watched anyone's speech from beginning to end.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 23, 2022)

These clowns infuriate me.

This is how out of touch some of the elected officials in the U.S. are  









‘Photo Op’: Josh Hawley Mocks Zelenskyy’s Speech Before Congress As A PR Stunt


Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech before Congress a “photo op” Thursday.




dailycaller.com

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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> All I'm getting is a headline, no article.



Drop the url in to archive.ph and try that

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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> As much as I enjoy my periodic visits to this site, I'm going to skip out over a fundimental disagreement about what's acceptable here.
> 
> Dana



Dana

You are an important contributor to this site and a highly respected contributor so please reconsider. Please to not let the mods trying to enforce the rules on politics/religion get you upset.

I thank the fates that I am not a moderator but the couple I personally know on other forums bend over backwards to avoid being political/biased/etc and I suspect that the same can be said of all the mods here. I know of one who often "over compensates" to ensure they enforce their forums rules of conduct.

Please remember that even if we do dissagree with the mods, and I often do, they are only human and, to mis-quote some ancient from way back when aviation did not exist _let those who have never been human compound their errors_

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 23, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Dana
> 
> You are an important contributor to this site and a highly respected contributor so please reconsider. Please to not let the mods trying to enforce the rules on politics/religion get you upset.
> 
> ...



I think he is leaving because he feels I am bending it or breaking it.


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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> These clowns infuriate me.
> 
> This is how out of touch some of the elected officials in the U.S. are
> 
> ...



Hawley is jealous that a far greater percentage of people everywhere listen to Zelenskyy and agree with him than listen to Hawley and agree with him.

I suspect even in Russia more people agree with Zelenskyy than Hawley because he can make *logical *arguments, unlike Whorely.

Whorely, Green, etc are closet poo tin supporters

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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree that no nation’s hands are clean of blood (ours included), but I am firm believer some make more of an effort to prevent. Some don’t seem to care at all, or even have a care for human life. Russia’s government seems to be the latter.



I believe that *every *countries *leadership* has a massive influence on the overall behaviour of the majority of its citizens.

Look Germany and Japan 80 years ago, or Uganda in the late 60's, or Laos in the 80's, as typical examples of how important national leadership is.

Good people until a change of leadership made the average citizen "uncivilised" and all became "civilised" again once that leadership was removed.

I worked with a number of Russians, mainly from the Vladivostok area, and I knew them to be good people and totally civilized while we worked and socialized together. I have been out of touch with them since before covid but, given they no longer live in Russia, I suspect they have not changed. I think the same can be said of many of their countrymen outside of the military where again the leadership is a powerful influence - think of the Wagner group as an example of that.

I have spent several years in PNG under both Australian and national rule and there again the action of the majority reflects the actions of the leaders. The worst of the leaders were all schooled in NSW which has always had politicians of very dubious honesty.

Many of the Russian aviation processes were different from what I was used to from the other countries I have lived and worked in but I have to admit that most of those items were logical under Russian operating conditions. Most were totally unnecessary in most countries but Alaska and northern Canada could definitely learn from them. But that would mean regional licences and that I have severe reservations about. Their "one size fits all" regulations are appropriate for them but not for most of the USA and Canada or all of the SWPA.

Most them are just people like us who want to be left alone by the government and get on with our lives.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 23, 2022)

More on Admiral Kuznetsov. The number of incidents, accidents, and situations caused by someone smoking is staggering.









Russia’s Unfortunate Aircraft Carrier Has Caught Fire Again


The blaze in Murmansk came as preparations were apparently underway for the Admiral Kuznetsov to leave drydock.




www.thedrive.com





_the ship being so prone to breakdowns that an ocean-going tug was always assigned to accompany it during deployments.

As such, there have now long been questions as to whether it's even worth refurbishing Admiral Kuznetsov, especially when Russia has plans to build new large-deck amphibious assault ships. More recently, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions placed on Russia have not only seen military priorities shift but have also eaten into defense budgets, and devastated the economy more generally. All in all, hanging on to the Cold War-era carrier now looks like an even worse investment._

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 23, 2022)

Congress Proposes More Than $44 Billion for Ukraine


The spending bill unveiled Tuesday includes billions more for the country than President Biden had requested.




www.nytimes.com







archive.ph

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## WARSPITER (Dec 23, 2022)

There isn't much use for the Kuznetsov anyway so it may end up being scrapped.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 23, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> There isn't much use for the Kuznetsov anyway so it may end up being scrapped.


Or, as with the sister carrier from Ukraine that became the Liaoning, sell the Kuznetsov to China. They’ll strip it down to the keel and rebuild.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 23, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> These clowns infuriate me.
> 
> This is how out of touch some of the elected officials in the U.S. are
> 
> ...


Unlike Hawley, President Zelenskyy didn’t run from danger.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Unlike Hawley, President Zelenskyy didn’t run from danger.



He isn't fit to shine Zelenskyy's boots.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 23, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Dec 23, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> There isn't much use for the Kuznetsov anyway so it may end up being scrapped.


I suspect a bidding war between India and China is mostly likely in the Kuznetsov's future.


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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 23, 2022)

Natural Gas prices in the EU (Amsterdam) continue to drop to almost levels before Russia invasion.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 23, 2022)

In Liberated Town After Town, Evidence Emerges of Russian War Crimes in Ukraine


The violence has included deliberately striking civilian targets and committing acts of torture, sexual violence and forced imprisonment of the occupied population, according to international investigators.




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves





GTX said:


> Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves


Text of article:

*Zelensky Recalled Us to Ourselves*
He came to thank the U.S. for supporting Ukraine. It is Americans who should thank him.
By David Frum
DECEMBER 22, 2022

"So much in the world depends on you."

Of all the many moving words in President Volodymyr Zelensky's speech to a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress, those eight may have been the most urgent and important.

Zelensky came to Washington to speak for his nation. He came to Washington to ask for assistance. But above all, he came to Washington to recall Americans to themselves. He came to say, My embattled people believe in you. Embedded in his words of trust was a challenge: If we believe in you, perhaps you can again believe in yourselves?

Political scientists have dubbed the past 20 years an age of "democratic recession." There are fewer democracies on the planet. Antidemocratic predators have gained in wealth and strength. Even within the surviving democracies, extremist forces have undermined citizens' confidence in their own system of government.

The ideal of partnership among democracies has declined, too, and perhaps even more than confidence within individual democracies. Narrow and selfish nationalism has displaced international cooperation and collective security. The slogan "America First"—seemingly discredited forever along with its fascism-friendly promoters of the late 1930s and early '40s—was revived. Unsurprisingly, "America First" summoned forth reciprocal chauvinism from countries on the receiving end of American tariffs and American disrespect.

This mood of democratic recession enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine. He regarded Ukraine as weak and vulnerable, and Ukraine's allies as divided and ineffectual. When he ordered the invasion 10 months ago, Putin apparently expected to roll into Kyiv in days. He seemingly expected the rest of the world to grumble, then come to terms. Russian energy, Russian cash—those were, in Putin's mind, the hard realities. Everything else seemed to him just so much vapor.
What a mistake.

The Ukrainians fought. Their ferocious and successful resistance surprised Putin. Perhaps it surprised the Ukrainians themselves. Certainly, it surprised the rest of the world, democratic and nondemocratic alike. A surge of sympathy rapidly translated into the greatest joint military assistance effort since 1945. Weapons, money, intelligence, economic support, humanitarian assistance—all flowed into Ukraine, by the tens of billions of dollars, pounds, and euros. Collective security was suddenly upgraded from an antique slogan to an organizing principle.

The assistance worked. The invasion was stopped, then reversed. The intended victim began to win.

And as the Ukrainians began to win, all the rest of us—all the other intended victims of Putin's aggression—began to consider that maybe we might not be such losers ourselves. Maybe our ideals were not so out-of-date. Maybe our institutions were not so broken. Maybe the people the Ukrainians needed us to be, maybe those were the people we could be again.

Zelensky spoke of "bicameral and bipartisan" support in Congress for his cause. That sounded a surprising note, because an important faction in Congress and in conservative media has aligned with Putin against Ukraine. But Zelensky was using words not to describe reality; he was using words to change reality. His praise strengthened Republican friends of Ukraine such as Senator Mitch McConnell—and the reverberating applause for his praise left the friends of Putin in Congress and in conservative media more aware than ever of their ideological extremism and political isolation.

Zelensky argued that assistance to Ukraine is not charity. It is an investment. That statement is obviously true by the material metrics of national security. At a comparatively small cost in American and allied assistance, the Russian military has been given a mauling it will not soon care to repeat. Ukraine's resistance has helped secure Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, too, because the lesson inflicted on Moscow will surely reverberate in Beijing.

But the "investment, not charity" argument is even more powerful when measured less materially. What the Western world is getting in return for its aid is a powerful recommitment to its own best self. We didn't believe the Ukrainians could do it, in part because we didn't believe we could do it. But they did. And so did we. And we look now at both Ukraine and ourselves in new ways.

The extremists and conspiracists and populists, the authoritarians and kleptocrats and theocrats who have all gained so much ascendancy in recent years, they do not speak for us. That small man in the olive-green jersey at the rostrum of the House of Representatives, he spoke for us. And the reception given to him today by the president and by Congress told the world that his words had been heard and received and understood by the great democracy-minded majority of Americans.
"So much in the world depends on you." Sometimes, Americans forget that.

Zelensky reminded us. He came to say thank you. It's a little embarrassing to hear that thanks, because what Americans gave, fundamentally, was just money. Zelensky's people have given blood, home, comfort, and security—every precious thing that human beings can sacrifice. The answer we owe Zelensky, the answer Zelensky should hear from this country, revived by his visit, his cause, and his country's heroic fight, is: No, no, no—thank you.

_David Frum is a staff writer at The Atlantic._

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

'We will crack the Patriot too': Putin says US air-defence system is outdated


Russian President Vladimir Putin describes the US Patriot air defence system to be delivered to Ukraine as outdated, adding the Russian military knows how to counter them.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a rousing speech to US Congress — but some Republican politicians appear to remain unmoved


Few visiting world leaders have commanded the floor of US Congress like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but the success of his historic visit will be measured in the months and years ahead, writes Jade Macmillan.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

Dana Bell said:


> The Ukraine has a long history of corruption, including spending major money to influence American politicians. While we must support them militarily, that doesn't mean that we should simply shovel money at the problem. We should be certain that we're supporting the military without seeing too much siphoned off for other interests. If we send American weapons, are we funding replenishment of our own military.


Zelensky has specifically tried to crack down on corruption...even when pressured personally to do corrupt favours for some. It is also certainly not a case of just shovelling money. Most support is in the form of real hardware being used daily. And actions are already underway to replenish. It should also be considered an investment to prevent future larger, more costly actions.


Dana Bell said:


> Second, some of those crying most loudly are the same folks who sent blankets when the Russians stole Crimea.


Two wrongs don't make a right - hence doing what is being done now is helping correct something that should have been done in 2014.


Dana Bell said:


> Why would the Russians have expected anything different from us when those same folks returned to power in this country.


Well, I am sure they would have had a better result if things had gone a different way a couple of years ago:

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'We will crack the Patriot too': Putin says US air-defence system is outdated
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin describes the US Patriot air defence system to be delivered to Ukraine as outdated, adding the Russian military knows how to counter them.
> ...


Yes, Russians have been very proficient destroying Javelins and similar weapons with their tanks. No doubt they can destroy patriots with their aircraft.

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

LRU rocket launcher vehicles donated by France to Ukraine are now on combat duty | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army


LRU rocket launcher vehicles donated by France to Ukraine are now on combat duty




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)



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## Denniss (Dec 23, 2022)

China is building their carriers from scratch now, I doubt they will bid on this fiery/smokey/rusty old carrier.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 23, 2022)

The Indian Navy purchased the Admiral Gorshkov and completely rebuilt it. They have also built a carrier from scratch, too.

No reason why they (or China) can't do the same to the Kuznetsov.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 23, 2022)

The Kusnetsov is over 30 years old. The innards have been maintained by the Soviet and then Russian navies. Its best use would be either an artificial reef or prison hulk.

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## Snowman (Dec 23, 2022)

...or practice target.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 23, 2022)

How do you think the world would react if China invaded the Sovereign Nation of Russia? I for one think that the "enemy of my enemy" thing would be stretched mightily.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The Kusnetsov is over 30 years old. The innards have been maintained by the Soviet and then Russian navies. Its best use would be either an artificial reef or prison hulk.


The Kiev class carriers that India and China purchased from Russia were older.

Both nations gutted the hulls and refitted the carriers to the point that they are virtually new ships.

Nothing wrong with Kuznetsov's hull - just needs new innards (and someone else besides Russia to keep it in working order).

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'We will crack the Patriot too': Putin says US air-defence system is outdated
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin describes the US Patriot air defence system to be delivered to Ukraine as outdated, adding the Russian military knows how to counter them.
> ...



Notice his use of the word "will" -- future tense, as in, they don't know how to do it right now.

They'll have to use ballistic missiles, and then cross their fingers.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

Denniss said:


> China is building their carriers from scratch now, I doubt they will bid on this fiery/smokey/rusty old carrier.



So is India, for that matter.



GrauGeist said:


> The Kiev class carriers that India and China purchased from Russia were older.
> 
> Both nations gutted the hulls and refitted the carriers to the point that they are virtually new ships.
> 
> Nothing wrong with Kuznetsov's hull - just needs new innards (and someone else besides Russia to keep it in working order).



I doubt India will buy any more Russian ships. The last carrier they bought went well over budget from $1.8B to $2.5B because the ship was in such a poor state. The story of the sale, refurb, and transfer as reported by Wiki (yes, I know) has probably soured India on doing business with Russia in second-hand ships.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

Snowman said:


> ...or practice target.



I'll settle for some Russian sailor defying the smoking regulations.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> How do you think the world would react if China invaded the Sovereign Nation of Russia? I for one think that the "enemy of my enemy" thing would be stretched mightily.
> View attachment 699779



I know what we democracies ought to do: crack open a beer and fire up some popcorn.

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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The Kusnetsov is over 30 years old. The innards have been maintained by the Soviet and then Russian navies. Its best use would be either an artificial reef or prison hulk.



maybe as a "St Helena" for the poo tin

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## Glider (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Unlike Hawley, President Zelenskyy didn’t run from danger.


Talking about people who run from danger



Mystery as Putin cancels last-minute tank factory trip during rumours he is in hiding

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

Glider said:


> Talking about people who run from danger
> 
> 
> 
> Mystery as Putin cancels last-minute tank factory trip during rumours he is in hiding



From the article you linked:



> Putin was due to inspect the boosted tank and flamethrower production of a factory, which is now using prison labour to meet the increased demand, within the city of Nizhny Tagil.



You know you're in deep kimche when you're using prison labor to manufacture front-line weapons.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 23, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> How do you think the world would react if China invaded the Sovereign Nation of Russia? I for one think that the "enemy of my enemy" thing would be stretched mightily.
> View attachment 699779


*MAXIM 29*: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy, no more, no less.

-- Schlock Mercenary

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## SaparotRob (Dec 23, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> *MAXIM 29*: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy, no more, no less.
> 
> -- Schlock Mercenary


It took me a couple of reads but yeah, you’re right.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> From the article you linked:
> 
> 
> 
> You know you're in deep kimche when you're using prison labor to manufacture front-line weapons.


When the Germans did that they found later that the slave and prison labourers had sabotaged the tanks and aircraft they’d assembled.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

_WASHINGTON/KYIV, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Friday to a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned his citizens that Russia could launch attacks over Christmas and urged them to heed air raid alarms.

The aid measure passed by the Democratic-controlled house, part of a $1.66 trillion government funding bill that won Senate approval a day earlier, will now go to U.S. President Joe Biden for signing into law.

In a tweet thanking Congress and leaders of both parties, Zelenskiy said it was "crucial" that Americans are "side-by-side" with Ukrainians "in this struggle."_









U.S. House approves Ukraine aid including arms after Zelenskiy visit


The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Friday to a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned his citizens that Russia could launch attacks over Christmas and urged them to heed air raid alarms.




www.reuters.com





No, Mr. President. Thank you and your country for showing the world the meaning of courage.

Our help pales compared to Ukrainian balls.

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 23, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> _WASHINGTON/KYIV, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Friday to a $45 billion aid package for Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned his citizens that Russia could launch attacks over Christmas and urged them to heed air raid alarms.
> 
> The aid measure passed by the Democratic-controlled house, part of a $1.66 trillion government funding bill that won Senate approval a day earlier, will now go to U.S. President Joe Biden for signing into law.
> 
> ...


MASSIVE Testis

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

Vladimir Putin appears to break his own law calling Russia's presence in Ukraine a 'war'


An opposition politician launches a legal challenge against the Russian president in the hopes of exposing his hypocrisy and dishonesty.




www.abc.net.au

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## manta22 (Dec 23, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin appears to break his own law calling Russia's presence in Ukraine a 'war'
> 
> 
> An opposition politician launches a legal challenge against the Russian president in the hopes of exposing his hypocrisy and dishonesty.
> ...


Yuferev had better stay far away from open windows in high places!

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> MASSIVE Testis


Buster Gonad level:

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## GTX (Dec 23, 2022)

US House approves Ukraine aid including arms after Zelenskyy visit, Russia demolishes Mariupol theatre


The US House of Representatives gives final approval to a $US45 billion aid package for Ukraine, as Russian authorities in the occupied city of Mariupol begin demolishing most of the city's drama theatre.




www.abc.net.au

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 23, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Yuferev had better stay far away from open windows in high places!


And give up tea for a while.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 23, 2022)

He'll probably come down with a severe case of suicide.

It seems to be going around lately...


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

hawkeye2an said:


> MASSIVE Testis



... and stainless steel.


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## MiTasol (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> The Kusnetsov is over 30 years old. The innards have been maintained by the Soviet and then Russian navies. Its best use would be either an artificial reef or prison hulk.



maybe as a "St Helena" for the Pootin


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## SaparotRob (Dec 23, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Yuferev had better stay far away from open windows in high places!


Including the ones in the basement.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Including the ones in the basement.



Should probably avoid basements altogether, no?


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## SaparotRob (Dec 23, 2022)

They're pretty high up. I've heard you can see Siberia from the basement in the Kremlin.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They're pretty high up. I've heard you can see Siberia from the basement in the Kremlin.



... for 3.3 seconds ...

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 23, 2022)

Patriots aside, is there any update to providing Western MBTs or combat aircraft? I expect a lot of that latest money goes to procuring ammunition, maintenance and spares for existing systems like HIMARs and SPGs.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 23, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Patriots aside, is there any update to providing Western MBTs or combat aircraft? I expect a lot of that latest money goes to procuring ammunition, maintenance and spares for existing systems like HIMARs and SPGs.



Not that I've heard, and only one Patriot battery is being sent -- four vehicles, 16 missiles. The gist I've read is that this may loosen up reservations against other high-tech stuff, but I'll wait 'til the eggs hatch before counting chickens.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 24, 2022)

All I want for Christmas is a whole buncha' blue and yellow F-16s for the winter offensive. HARMS to go with them would be nice.

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## MiTasol (Dec 24, 2022)

I have been watching Twitter die and be replaced by Mastodon on other forums but have yet to see a Mastodon post here. 

This surprises me seeing that Musk wants Ukraine to give Crimea and the other four territories to the Poo-tin.

Mastodon is becoming so mainstream that even the _Washington Post_ has a new article, A guide to getting started with Twitter alternative Mastodon.

And Time has a very interesting take on Musk at The Clarifying Moment Elon Musk Has Given Us

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## ThomasP (Dec 24, 2022)

re additional Patriot systems.

Something that is often overlooked is that this war is not a 'conventional' or traditional type of US war. There are a lot of unknowns on all sides.

The US/NATO deployed HIMARS/MLRS to Ukraine slowly at first partly due to the time needed for training, but also partly due to the unknown of whether the systems would survive long enough to be useful (as opposed to "Hey look at that, they fired one load and got taken out by Russian counter-battery or air strike. Hmmm, boy it sure seemed like a good idea".)

The Patriot system is going to have the same potential problems to be dealt with. Even if we are willing to send a large number of systems, the US/NATO higher-ups will want to be sure they will be sustainable/survivable. And that is ignoring the problem of information/intel the Russians will gather on the Patriot system capabilities once it starts being used operationally - in effect the Russians will be able to 'test' the Patriot system to a significant degree and have the chance to develop work-around tactics and possibly sophisticated electronic countermeasures.

We will send more Patriot systems if it proves survivable, effective, and needed - just as with the HIMARS/MLRS.

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## ThomasP (Dec 24, 2022)

_buzz_-_buzz_, BRRRRRT-BRRRRRT

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 24, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> re additional Patriot systems.
> 
> Something that is often overlooked is that this war is not a 'conventional' or traditional type of US war. There are a lot of unknowns on all sides.
> 
> ...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 24, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I have been watching Twitter die and be replaced by Mastodon on other forums but have yet to see a Mastodon post here.
> 
> This surprises me seeing that Musk wants Ukraine to give Crimea and the other four territories to the Poo-tin.
> 
> ...



Musk is a twatwaffle extraordinaire.

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 24, 2022)

A few days ago we were talking about cost-effective ways to stop Iranian drones.
Here is a (very) cost-effective way of stopping Lancet loitering munitions. 


Guess those Iranian drones are not better.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Musk is a twatwaffle extraordinaire.


"Twatwaffle"? Is that a euphemism for "oligarch wannabe"? Odd that he should want to join a species facing extinction. Tallyrand he's not.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> "Twatwaffle"? Is that a euphemism for "oligarch wannabe"? Odd that he should want to join a species facing extinction. Tallyrand he's not.



If I wanted to spell out what a twatwaffle is I'd have to use language I wouldn't use here.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> If I wanted to spell out what a twatwaffle is I'd have to use language I wouldn't use here.


I can imagine. The word's not hard to deconstruct.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 24, 2022)

You know, previous US policy toward Ukrainian air defense could be encapsulated in the title of Tom Clancy's second novel in the John Patrick Ryan series, _Patriot Games_. Thank God that's over at last! "Running out the clock", as we've been doing is downright shameful.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 24, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Mastodon is becoming so mainstream that even the _Washington Post_ has a new article, A guide to getting started with Twitter alternative Mastodon.


The Washington Post is owned by Bezos. He hates Musk and will print anything to disparage him. I tried Mastodon, but as far as I could see you had to choose areas of interest and assign yourself to different silos. I don’t think Mastodon is the threat to Twitter that Bezo Inc. suggests it may be. Always ask why is this being reported, in addition to what.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 24, 2022)

Shrug. I happily nuked my bird account and moved to the extinct mammut. 









William Lewis III (@[email protected])


90 Posts, 78 Following, 35 Followers · Fat old US Army NCO. Socialist. Acceptably good photographer. It's always a good day to fight the fascists, at home and abroad. Slava Ukraini! Bellator Iustitia Socialis Leica & Nikon digital Rolleicord & Super Ikonta film.




universeodon.com





I find it quite easy to do what I want to there and they have no toleration for those out to lie and deceive for any reason. I follow about 90% of the same ones I followed at the bird place. 

Of course, my biggest interest is in posting my landscape photography so there is that.


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## GTX (Dec 24, 2022)

'We will find you': How Russia used threats and torture to track down prominent Ukrainians


In a deliberate and widespread campaign, Russian forces systematically targeted influential Ukrainians to neutralise resistance through detention, torture and executions.




www.abc.net.au

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## Dimlee (Dec 24, 2022)

Merry Christmas!

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## MiTasol (Dec 24, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Musk is a twatwaffle extraordinaire.



Stop insulting twatwaffle extraordinaires.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 24, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> You know, previous US policy toward Ukrainian air defense could be encapsulated in the title of Tom Clancy's second novel in the John Patrick Ryan series, _Patriot Games_. Thank God that's over at last! "Running out the clock", as we've been doing is downright shameful.



I think it's more a matter of us playing solid D, to extend the football metaphor. By feeding in equipment and supplies, we've forced the Russians to try running out the clock with their attacks on infrastructure and civilians because they know they cannot win with offense. They're trying to wear down the defenders.

I agree with your gist that we should simply open up the cabinet and offer what's inside to put this war to bed quickly, though. You'd think we would have learnt from Vietnam that gradually increasing pressure only allows the other side to adapt and perhaps overcome.

I'd love to see a Ukrainian spring offensive armed with MLRS/modern howitzers, ideally tanks (but I doubt that will happen in this timeframe), and covered by Patriots and F-16s. Those mofos would know what to do with the kit! 
A
 Admiral Beez
is right, we need to get off our duffs and get Ukraine modern MBTs to make the most of the synergy that comes with the other weapons we've provided. These things were designed and built as a complete toolkit. Don't give 'em a Phillips-head one week, a ratchet set the next, etc. They need to understand how to integrate it all.

ETA: don't forget the Warthogs!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 24, 2022)

And --

_
KYIV, Dec 24 (Reuters) - A Russian strike on Ukraine's recently recaptured city of Kherson killed at least 10 people, wounded 58 and left bloodied corpses on the road, authorities said, in what Kyiv condemned as wanton killing for pleasure.
A pro-Moscow official responded by saying Ukrainian forces had launched the attack in a bid to blame the Russian military.

Fresh from a trip to the United States seeking weapons to resist the 10-month-old Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy published photos showing streets strewn with burning cars, smashed windows and bodies.

"Social networks will most likely mark these photos as 'sensitive content'. But this is not sensitive content – it is the real life of Ukraine and Ukrainians," he wrote.

"These are not military facilities. ... It is terror, it is killing for the sake of intimidation and pleasure."_









Ukraine says Russia strike kills at least 10; Moscow blames pro-Kyiv forces


Fresh from a trip to Washington seeking weapons to resist the Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy published photos showing streets strewn with burning cars, smashed windows and bodies.




www.reuters.com





This is why we support the Ukrainians.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 24, 2022)

This man will be legend in tomorrow’s history books.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 24, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'We will find you': How Russia used threats and torture to track down prominent Ukrainians
> 
> 
> In a deliberate and widespread campaign, Russian forces systematically targeted influential Ukrainians to neutralise resistance through detention, torture and executions.
> ...


Kulaks anyone ? Nothing changes.

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## at6 (Dec 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> Vladimir Putin appears to break his own law calling Russia's presence in Ukraine a 'war'
> 
> 
> An opposition politician launches a legal challenge against the Russian president in the hopes of exposing his hypocrisy and dishonesty.
> ...


Poot face finally confessed to his purulent action. He's just a nasty ass pus maggot.


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## at6 (Dec 25, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> I have been watching Twitter die and be replaced by Mastodon on other forums but have yet to see a Mastodon post here.
> 
> This surprises me seeing that Musk wants Ukraine to give Crimea and the other four territories to the Poo-tin.
> 
> ...


Screw Musk with a sandpaper sex toy.

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## at6 (Dec 25, 2022)

As for Bezos and Musk, let them eat each other alive. It's a well known fact that the world would be a better place if they were also gone with Poot turd.

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## GTX (Dec 25, 2022)

Ukraine will create its own Christmas miracle, President Zelenskyy says in defiant message


Speaking 10 months to the day since the start of a war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions, Mr Zelenskyy urges Ukrainians to show they remain unbowed despite Russian attacks that have plunged cities into darkness.




www.abc.net.au

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## SaparotRob (Dec 25, 2022)

Just saw a YouTube video by Ares28. It's entitled: "Putler finds out his forces have been neutralized by Byraktar drones". 
Worth a watch!


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 25, 2022)

_
Dec 24 (Reuters) - A major Russian shipyard that specialises in building non-nuclear submarines said its general director had died suddenly on Saturday after 11 years in the job, but gave no details.

Admiralty Shipyards, based in the western port of St Petersburg, announced the death of Alexander Buzakov in a statement. He had been in the job since August 2012.

His main achievement, it said, had been preserving and strengthening the shipyard's order books for modern non-nuclear submarines, surface ships and deep water vehicles._









Head of major Russian shipyard dies suddenly, no cause given


A major Russian shipyard that specialises in building non-nuclear submarines said its general director had died suddenly on Saturday after 11 years in the job, but gave no details.




www.reuters.com

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## wlewisiii (Dec 25, 2022)

Merry Christmas!

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## GTX (Dec 25, 2022)

Vladimir Putin accuses the West of trying to destroy Russia, but it willing to negotiate an end to the war


Speaking with state media, Mr Putin says that while Russia is acting in the "right direction" in Ukraine he is willing to pursue "acceptable solutions" to end the conflict.




www.abc.net.au

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## FLYBOYJ (Dec 25, 2022)

Christmas miracle: Russian MiG on fire in Belarus


On 25 December, a Russian MiG-31K aircraft, which can carry Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles, was burning on the territory of the Belarusian airfield in the settlement of Machulishchy. Source: Belaruski Hajun [an independent Belarusian military monitoring media outlet] on Telegram Quote from Belaruski...




www.yahoo.com

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## GTX (Dec 25, 2022)

The 'hired killers' trying to do what Putin's army couldn't


They're considered among the most ruthless mercenaries in the world. And as Russia's conventional army has reeled under pressure, the Wagner Group has been enlisted by the Kremlin to try to turn the tide, writes John Lyons.




www.abc.net.au

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## manta22 (Dec 25, 2022)

GTX said:


> The 'hired killers' trying to do what Putin's army couldn't
> 
> 
> They're considered among the most ruthless mercenaries in the world. And as Russia's conventional army has reeled under pressure, the Wagner Group has been enlisted by the Kremlin to try to turn the tide, writes John Lyons.
> ...


"Wagner Group" = "Waffen SS"?

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## Snowman (Dec 25, 2022)

I think it's modern Russian version of this unit:









Dirlewanger Brigade - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org

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## SaparotRob (Dec 25, 2022)

Wasn't there a semi mercenary, convict division employed by the S.S. that had a name that began with a D?

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## Denniss (Dec 25, 2022)

The more I read about the Bakhmut operation the more it reminds me of Stalingrad.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 25, 2022)

Denniss said:


> The more I read about the Bakhmut operation the more it reminds me of Stalingrad.


Agreed. And like with Bakhmut, taking Stalingrad was pointless. If Paulus had taken the entirety of Stalingrad before Uranus in Nov 1942, then what? You now own a ruined city with hundreds of thousands of well fed, equipped and armed enemy troops on either flank. What was the point of taking Stalingrad?

Same goes for Bakhmut. Prigozhin‘s Wagner takes Bakhmut, but not before losing most of his forces, and now owns a ruined city. One with tens of thousands of well fed, equipped and armed Ukrainian soldiers on three sides. Now what does he do? What’s the point of taking Bakhmut?

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Now what does he do? What’s the point of taking Bakhmut?


"Success! We've achieved our objective. Now Kiyv must collapse in terror of our inexorable might! On to Warsaw!"

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## buffnut453 (Dec 26, 2022)

Merry Christmas...I think:









Ukraine war: Drone attack on Russian bomber base leaves three dead


Moscow says three service personnel died in a new drone attack on the base at Engels.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Dec 26, 2022)

I saw a news bit about Ukraine just downing one of Russia's Forpost recon drones, but can't find the artical, now.


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## Denniss (Dec 26, 2022)

Stalingrad had important tank and artillery factories + an important river going through the city. AFAIR Bakhmut has rail and road connection going through or at least near it. The city is not worthless as it has some strategic value but you can't just try to storm/assault it for months without a proper plan.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 26, 2022)

Denniss said:


> Stalingrad had important tank and artillery factories + an important river going through the city. AFAIR Bakhmut has rail and road connection going through or at least near it. The city is not worthless as it has some strategic value but you can't just try to storm/assault it for months without a proper plan.


Agreed, both Stalingrad and Bakhmut are not worthless. But they’re not worth grinding away your whole army. At Stalingrad the factories were already in ruins and relocated out of the city. Von Paulus should have been ordered to cover but not enter Stalingrad and instead send his forces to take the primary resource objectives - aka the primary point of Case Blue - Wikipedia. Paulus was supposed to “_capture the oil fields of the Caucasus to enable the Germans to re-supply their low fuel stock and also to deny their use to the Soviet Union, thereby bringing about the complete collapse of the Soviet war effort._” With this is mind, it makes no sense to ruin your army by besieging a city while leaving the oil fields untouched. 

As for Bakhmut, the Russians should have ignored this town and instead held Kherson north of the Dnieper, or if impossible, focused on defending against the inevitable Jan 2023 AFU offensive south to Melitopol.









Ukraine Situation Report: Strategic City Of Melitopol Could Be Kyiv’s Next Target


Russia is fortifying Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which could become Ukraine’s jumping-off point into Crimea. DEC 23, 2022 ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, UKRAINE – DECEMBER 16, 2022 – The artillerymen w…




ukrainetoday.org





Melitopol fell to the Russians on 1 March 2022. My bet is it’s in Ukrainian hands before 1 March 2023. I know I’m biased, being married to an Ukrainian-Canadian (born in Canada, all Ukie blood line, until this Brit born Canadian sullied the bloodline), but these people are legend. I can’t wait to visit as a tourist post-2025.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 26, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I saw a news bit about Ukraine just downing one of Russia's Forpost recon drones, but can't find the artical, now.


Is this it?

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## GrauGeist (Dec 26, 2022)

Here is mention of the Forpost downing:









Russians Launch Multiple Attacks In Donbas, Bombard Zaporizhzhya Hospital, Says Ukrainian Military


Ukrainian forces fought back numerous attacks by Moscow's troops in the east of the country as Russians targeted a hospital in the Zaporizhzhya region with artillery fire over the past 24 hours, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military said on December 22.




www.rferl.org





In regards to the Stalingrad/Bakhmut comparison - they are both political meatgrinders.
Putin won't give up the assault because it's the only "victory" Russia can claim since summer.

Stalingrad was Uncle Joe's namesake and Hitler wanted it captured at all costs.

Both were/are not relevant to the offensive and caused the respective invasions to stall, consume an absurd amount of men and material and eventually fail.

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## GTX (Dec 26, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Wagner Group" = "Waffen SS"?


Not really.



Snowman said:


> I think it's modern Russian version of this unit:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To a degree - especially with their recent 'hirings'.


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## wlewisiii (Dec 26, 2022)



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## wlewisiii (Dec 26, 2022)

And in other interesting tweets:



Didn't show the next tweet for some reason - it talks about increasing looting there which has happened before just before the Russian forces break and run.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 26, 2022)

manta22 said:


> "Wagner Group" = "Waffen SS"?



No, not really. Not really close at all. The Wagner Group are paid mercenaries. The Waffen SS was an actual military branch.


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## swampyankee (Dec 26, 2022)

Mercenary groups have been hired or formed by other governments than Putin's, sometimes on the false premise that they're not bound by various Geneva conventions, such as in the treatment of prisoners or civilians. This is specious; they are still government forces as they are acting on the government's orders.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 26, 2022)

The Schutze Staffel was in a sense, a private army.
They were funded by the government but did not answer to the OKW, but rather the Reichsfuhrer (Himmler).

The Waffen SS was a sub-unit of the Schutze Staffel.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 26, 2022)

Quite the thread ...

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## GTX (Dec 26, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 26, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 26, 2022)

This one is quite thought provoking:

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> This one is quite thought provoking:




Putin has concentrated his power so much that, if Russia suffers defeat here, an implosion strikes me as possible. Not talking about at the periphery as Simon mostly is here, but literally Russia itself coming apart at the seams.

No matter how it boils out, it won't be pretty, and we'd best be thinking about it beforehand.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin has concentrated his power so much that, if Russia suffers defeat here, an implosion strikes me as possible.


Agreed. For starters, it’s only a matter of time before the Georgians and Moldovans take up arms to reoccupy territory seized by Russian-backed separatists. Then there’s Chechnya, where the locals will likely throw out the Kadyrov clan and rise up to separate from Russia. And within Ukraine, when this war is over the grievances of Ukraine’s ethnic Russians will remain unresolved, likely leading to civil unrest. Asad in Syria depends on a strong Russia to keep him in power, so expect a renewed civil war there. Lastly, always playing the long game is Beijing, watching and waiting for expansion opportunities in Russia’s Far East - they won’t let a power vacuum pass unnoticed.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 26, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> And within Ukraine, when this war is over the grievances of Ukraine’s ethnic Russians will remain unresolved, likely leading to civil unrest.



Given your family's history, do they have any insight they have offered you that you'd be comfortable sharing? If so, I'd certainly be interested in hearing it.



Admiral Beez said:


> Lastly, always playing the long game is Beijing, watching and waiting for expansion opportunities in Russia’s Far East.



That's a big worry, for me; power abhors a vacuum, and the Chinese have at least one long-standing claim that makes me think that if Russia falls apart, they might decide to move into parts of Siberia. There's no love lost between the two, anyway, despite the wooing of the last year or two, and perhaps Xi might prefer that angle, over an amphibious assault on Taiwan. More power and resources to gain, and less risk?

Looks pretty tough either way.

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## CAC Woomera (Dec 26, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


>



These things always bring a smile to my face. Even in the darkest of times, humanity finds companionship in animals alike

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## manta22 (Dec 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin has concentrated his power so much that, if Russia suffers defeat here, an implosion strikes me as possible. Not talking about at the periphery as Simon mostly is here, but literally Russia itself coming apart at the seams.
> 
> No matter how it boils out, it won't be pretty, and we'd best be thinking about it beforehand.


One of Russia's problems (as are many others) is that they have no tradition of self government. Freedom doesn't exist long without it.

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## GTX (Dec 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Putin has concentrated his power so much that, if Russia suffers defeat here, an implosion strikes me as possible. Not talking about at the periphery as Simon mostly is here, but literally Russia itself coming apart at the seams.


He does cover that angle.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 26, 2022)

manta22 said:


> One of Russia's problems (as are many others) is that they have no tradition of self government. Freedom doesn't exist long without it.



Definitely a weakness, especially as the country get larger. Span-of-control is a thing for a reason.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 26, 2022)

GTX said:


> He does cover that angle.


 Indeed he does, but it get short shrift in my opinion. To wit, if Russia loses in Ukraine, peripheral wars will be the least of the world's worry. Russia itself falling apart would be much more devastating, and it requires planning all the more for its potential fallout.

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## Warspite63 (Dec 26, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Indeed he does, but it get short shrift in my opinion. To wit, if Russia loses in Ukraine, peripheral wars will be the least of the world's worry. Russia itself falling apart would be much more devastating, and it requires planning all the more for its potential fallout.


Agreed. As the video makes clear, a civil war in Russia itself would be a different order of magnitude than Yugoslavia's agonies. And that's without even factoring in the 50-odd hundred nuclear weapons that would be up for grabs. It's a very sobering thought

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## Glider (Dec 26, 2022)

I have to say that I found both video's to be very well thought out, thanks for posting them

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## MiTasol (Dec 27, 2022)

Given the latest from the Pootin and his lapdog Lavrov I think it is about time some special forces extracted and detained some, preferably senior, Wagner mercenaries and delivered them to the International Criminal Court in the Hague for war crimes trials.

As mercenaries they may or may not fall under the Geneva convention but even so delivering them to the Hague should be accepted as these crims are working way outside the Convention so should be treated as crims instead of captured combatants.

PS - for our US members having a poo is the English equivalent of the US having a crap.









Power outages persist for 9 million Ukrainians as Russian foreign minister delivers ultimatum


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that nearly 9 million people remain without electricity as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow's proposals for settlement need to be fulfilled to put an end to the war.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Dec 27, 2022)

Lavrov insists for the war to end, Ukraine must be demilitarized, the current government removed and accept Russia's territorial claims.

Lavrov can go eff himself.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 27, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> PS - for our US members having a poo is the English equivalent of the US having a crap


By the way, we yanks are aware of term "poo".

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Indeed he does, but it get short shrift in my opinion. To wit, if Russia loses in Ukraine, peripheral wars will be the least of the world's worry. Russia itself falling apart would be much more devastating, and it requires planning all the more for its potential fallout.


Given the time available I think it does cover the issue sufficiently. The prospect of Russia itself disintegrating is a big issue alone. One could spend hours there alone especially when one factors in all the consequences and implications.

At least when the USSR fell apart there was still a strongish central power in the form of Russia. If Russia were to split up though I am not sure one would see the various political divisions filling the gap.









Political divisions of Russia - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Would we see local warlords? Oligarchs? Would the likes of NATO, China or others need to move in to secure weapons etc? Would make the likes of Yugoslavia, the USSR and Afghanistan all look like a walk in the park…

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## wlewisiii (Dec 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> Given the time available I think it does cover the issue sufficiently. The prospect of Russia itself disintegrating is a big issue alone. One could spend hours there alone especially when one factors in all the consequences and implications.
> 
> At least when the USSR fell apart there was still a strongish central power in the form of Russia. If Russia were to split up though I am not sure one would see the various political divisions filling the gap.
> 
> ...


I will hope that the US would find some way to, on way or another, seize the Russian nukes. Period.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 27, 2022)

People lost their minds when the Soviet Union broke up and Ukraine had a massive stock pile of Nuclear weapons.

The issue was resolved, though they (Ukraine) got stuck in the ass several years later when the Budapest Memorandum was forgotten...

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

How Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade Fought A Russian Force Ten Times Its Size—And Won


The 1st Tank Brigade’s 2,000 troopers and roughly 100 T-64B and T-64BM tanks—some of the best tanks in the Ukrainian inventory—lay in wait in the fields and forests surrounding Chernihiv.




www.forbes.com

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I will hope that the US would find some way to, on way or another, seize the Russian nukes. Period.


Easier said than done I suspect. Given they have an estimated 6000 odd it wouldn’t be an easy prospect…. That said, both NATO and China have no interest in seeing them loose.

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

Russia's defeat is the top global priority for 2023


Ensuring that the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends in defeat is vital for the international security system and must be the strategic priority for 2023, writes Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.




www.atlanticcouncil.org

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 27, 2022)

GTX said:


> If Russia were to split up though I am not sure one would see the various political divisions filling the gap.


Let’s consider the collapse of the British Empire post WW2. There’s hardly a single former post WW1 British colony (excluding the Dominions) that almost from the day of post WW2 independence onwards didn’t fall into sectarian violence, military-led coups, religious extremism and power vacuum chaos. Some, like India, Malaya, Singapore and most of the Caribbean found their way. But only now, 75 years after the beginning of the Empire’s collapse do we see some glimmer of West-like democratic states in Africa and Asia, while former colonies like Burma/Myanmar, Pakistan, Nigeria, Aden/Yemen, South Sudan and even once stable independents like Kenya have become dangerous, beset by violence, often ruled by autocrats, juntas, mullahs or gangsters. When Russia collapses there will be a similar 75 years of trouble.

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## swampyankee (Dec 27, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> Given the latest from the Pootin and his lapdog Lavrov I think it is about time some special forces extracted and detained some, preferably senior, Wagner mercenaries and delivered them to the International Criminal Court in the Hague for war crimes trials.
> 
> As mercenaries they may or may not fall under the Geneva convention but even so delivering them to the Hague should be accepted as these crims are working way outside the Convention so should be treated as crims instead of captured combatants.
> 
> ...


They're functioning as Russian forces and under control of the Russian government. Mercenary forces have existed for thousands of years; there isn't some loophole to exempt them from internationally accepted laws of war.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 27, 2022)

Another Russian tycoon does a Peter Pan out of a hotel window...this time in India (and another member of the tycoon's group died on Friday):









Russian sausage tycoon Pavel Antov dies in Indian hotel fall


Meat millionaire Pavel Antov, who recently denied criticising the war in Ukraine, had just turned 65.



www.bbc.com





Even in the worst novel, the writer would come up with a more varied script.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I will hope that the US would find some way to, on way or another, seize the Russian nukes. Period.


Lets give them to Lichtenstein.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Lavrov insists for the war to end, Ukraine must be demilitarized, the current government removed and accept Russia's territorial claims.
> 
> Lavrov can go eff himself.


Lavrov also said that if Ukraine doesn’t agree to Russia’s demands the Russian Army will decide the issue. 
I needed a laugh.

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## Frog (Dec 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> By the way, we yanks are aware of term "poo".


Excuse a confused French :
We dont give a crap, a poo or a shit ?

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 27, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> I will hope that the US would find some way to, on way or another, seize the Russian nukes. Period.


I wonder if they even work or if essential maintenance funding and parts have been stolen or neglected. If your whole government is based upon the theft of state property and misappropriation of state funding, why would a system never intending to be used be spared?

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## WARSPITER (Dec 27, 2022)

Frog said:


> Excuse a confused French :
> We dont give a crap, a poo or a shit ?


Just to deconfuse you, we don't mind if you don't give any of the three cause we don't want to have
to offend by not accepting them.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 27, 2022)

So, what's going to happen in 2023? Short answer...nobody has a clue. 









Ukraine war: Five ways conflict could go in 2023


As the conflict enters its second calendar year, experts predict what could happen on the ground.



www.bbc.com





The comments about Ukrainian advances in Kreminna and Svatove are interesting...and it would be great to see their advances continue. However, I tend to agree that a southern flank to cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea is strategically more important. 

The key question is what will Russia do? Will Moscow order a spring offensive and, if so, how will that go? Unless something drastic changes in Russian tactics and operational art, I think they'll make some modest gains without seriously damaging Ukraine's defences. 

It will be interesting to see if Belarus takes a more aggressive role in the war as part of that Russian offensive. Such a chain of events would offer an increased threat to Ukraine but, equally, would be the final nail in the coffin for Lukashenko as I don't see the Belarusian populace wanting their sons and daughters dragged so overtly into a fighting war (but that's just my hunch, not based on any serious analysis).

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Dec 27, 2022)

Now this shit is funny.









Star rising in Kremlin, Russia's Medvedev predicts war in West


Medvedev, deputy head of Putin's advisory security council, served as president during a four-year spell when Putin held the office of prime minister. In his list of predictions for 2023, published on his personal Telegram and Twitter accounts, he also foresaw Britain rejoining the EU, which...




www.yahoo.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> So, what's going to happen in 2023? Short answer...nobody has a clue.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Were I in charge of UAF, I'd drive on and capture Melitopol, and then push on to Kerch. Bag the thousands of Russians in Crimea and block their relief, in a stroke. The Eastern Front is important, but I think seizing Crimea in this manner could be a war-winner.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 27, 2022)

The border between Ukraine and Belarus is nearly impassable and transit confined to a few highways, as we saw last February with that ridiculously long Russian convoy.

Ukraine wasn't situated to counter that convoy at the time, but that mistake will not happen again. This time, that highway will be a killing zone that would rival the "highway of death" in Kuwait, should Russian and/or Belarusian troops attempt it.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 27, 2022)

Frog said:


> Excuse a confused French :
> We dont give a crap, a poo or a shit ?


Follow your muse. It’s your First Amendment Right.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 27, 2022)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Now this shit is funny.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



From the article:

_
(Reuters) - Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an arch loyalist of Vladimir Putin given a new job this week, predicted war between Germany and France next year and a civil war in the United States that would lead to Elon Musk becoming president.

Medvedev, deputy head of Putin's advisory security council, served as president during a four-year spell when Putin held the office of prime minister. He appears to have seen his fortune rise in the Kremlin, which said on Monday he would now serve as Putin's deputy on a body overseeing the military industry.

In his list of predictions for 2023, published on his personal Telegram and Twitter accounts, he also foresaw Britain rejoining the EU, which would in turn collapse._

"The answer to this Daily Double is 'What is wishful thinking.' Alex."

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## Crimea_River (Dec 27, 2022)

I wonder what's in the water over there?

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## Snowman (Dec 27, 2022)

The more this clown drinks the much funnier becomes his delirium.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 27, 2022)

Crimea_River said:


> I wonder what's in the water over there?



Psilocybin, apparently.

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## Glider (Dec 27, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Lavrov insists for the war to end, Ukraine must be demilitarized, the current government removed and accept Russia's territorial claims.
> 
> Lavrov can go eff himself.


Lavrov said that the talking would be done by the Russian Army. Well so far the talking is more of a whisper and the Ukraine Army are doing the talking.

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## Glider (Dec 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another Russian tycoon does a Peter Pan out of a hotel window...this time in India (and another member of the tycoon's group died on Friday):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


With all the money these people have at their disposal, you would think that they could afford a bungalow.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> Lavrov said that the talking would be done by the Russian Army. Well so far the talking is more of a whisper and the Ukraine Army are doing the talking.



Buying stock in the Russian Army is a thin reed.


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## at6 (Dec 27, 2022)

buffnut453 said:


> Another Russian tycoon does a Peter Pan out of a hotel window...this time in India (and another member of the tycoon's group died on Friday):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sausage?


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## Glider (Dec 27, 2022)

With the Wagner mercenaries making threats and comments such as this, it's quite possible that the regular army may well turn on them









Wagner mercenaries call Russian MoD's Chief of Staff 'piece of s**t'


The Wagner Group is a mercenary outfit fighting in Ukraine, made up of at least 40,000 ex-convicts, including murderers and rapists, recruited directly from Russian prisons on the promise that if they fight for six months in Ukraine, they will be absolved of their crimes.




www.express.co.uk

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

Glider said:


> With the Wagner mercenaries making threats and comments such as this, it's quite possible that the regular army may well turn on them


Wouldn't that be something to see

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

21 so far this year: 






2022 Russian businessmen mystery deaths - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Being a Russian Tycoon is not a healthy lifestyle choice.

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## MiTasol (Dec 27, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> They're functioning as Russian forces and under control of the Russian government. Mercenary forces have existed for thousands of years; there isn't some loophole to exempt them from internationally accepted laws of war.




Kidnapping, transporting a person against their will over international boundaries, a person travelling over international boundaries without proper documentation and torture (waterboarding etc) are all not acceptable under international law except if you are the USA and call it "rendering".

So let someone "render" these war criminals to the Hague.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 27, 2022)

Pretty unbiased reporting on Ukrainian drone operators and their battlefield impact:









Near The Front, Ukraine's Drone Pilots Wage A Modern War On A Shoestring Budget


Before the Russian invasion, one was a bodybuilder, another a civil engineer, and the third worked in real estate. Their journey from green recruits to seasoned drone operators shows how much Ukraine has achieved – and just how far Ukraine has to go in matters ranging from weapons to intelligence.




www.rferl.org

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## GTX (Dec 27, 2022)

Vladimir Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that imposed price cap over Ukraine war


President Vladimir Putin delivers Russia's long-awaited response to a Western price cap, signing off on a five-month ban on the supply of crude oil and oil products to nations that impose the cap.




www.abc.net.au

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## ThomasP (Dec 27, 2022)

re Patriot deployment to Ukraine

It is not the intent to use the Patriot system against drones. The intent is to employ it against ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles. The Patriot can also be used at rather long ranges against the hypersonic cruise missile launch aircraft and/or airborne EW/ELINT platforms. It is also a signal/hedge against the possible use of tactical/theater level nuclear armed ballistic missiles.

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## WARSPITER (Dec 27, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Buying stock in the Russian Army is a thin reed.


Perhaps Elon will make a takeover bid.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 27, 2022)

I'd cheer him on just to see the e-mail dump. And then he'll fire half the army!

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 27, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Lets give them to Lichtenstein.


Nah, give them to The Dutchy of Grand Fenwick! They'll know what to do with them.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 28, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perhaps Elon will make a takeover bid.



"I don't think you understand, Minister Shoigu. I'm your boss now, and I'm telling you that the Armata must have the Tesla electric drive in it."
"Mr Musk --"
"Thats _General-General_ Musk to you, Minister Shoigu!" He flings a pencil across the room, making yet another mark on the wall-map hanging behind the old Russian. "I outrank you now."
Shoigu starts again. "General-General Musk, our engineers calculate that so powered, the T-14 will only have a range of about eight miles,."
"That doesn't matter!" Elon snaps. "That's all the damned tanks go anyway before launching a turret, and I have to recoup my investment in Twitter!"
"As you wish."
Just then, an orderly runs up and stands at attention. "General-General Musk, Lt Andreyivich reporting. A new Ukrainian formation has appeared on our map, and we do not know its order-of-battle or intentions!"
"Well, erase it."
Shoigu sighs. "Let me call Kadyrov, our troops are decimated."

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Ukraine Converts $21.9 Billion In U.S. Military Surplus Into Fearsome Force


Doubters want you to believe $21.9 billion dollars in military aid is a lot, when, in fact, it's mostly cast-off gear that the U.S. was already sending to the scrapyard.




www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Australian killed while fighting in Ukraine before Christmas


The mother of Victorian man Sage O'Donnell says he "died in action defending the freedom of the Ukrainian people" just before Christmas.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Dec 28, 2022)

Kherson is still a war zone as petulant Russian forces bomb the crap out of it:









Ukraine war: Civilians flee Kherson as Russian attacks intensify


The Ukrainian city, liberated from Russian control last month, is coming under heavy bombardment.



www.bbc.com

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## ThomasP (Dec 28, 2022)

An interesting read:

"Putin's 'ghost army' has come out of the shadows as they take over in Ukraine"

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## hawkeye2an (Dec 28, 2022)

SAVE FERRIS

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 28, 2022)

GTX said:


> Ukraine Converts $21.9 Billion In U.S. Military Surplus Into Fearsome Force
> 
> 
> Doubters want you to believe $21.9 billion dollars in military aid is a lot, when, in fact, it's mostly cast-off gear that the U.S. was already sending to the scrapyard.
> ...



From the linked article:

_Enabling the fight has bolstered Ukraine's commitment to their nation, critical for advancing society-building and anti-corruption efforts there. Facilitating Ukraine's resistance may even end the kleptocratic reign of Vladimir Putin, paving the way for a more just—if not more democratic—society in Russia itself._

I strongly agree with the first point. The Russians don't seem to understand that the main effect of their invasion is that they're drawing the Ukrainians together and building public buy-in for an independent and strong nation.

I'm not sure I agree with the second point here. This war can certainly bring Putin down, don't get me wrong, but I'm skeptical of it empowering a more just or democratic society in Russia. I'm thinking that internal wars and a "clean-up on Aisle 13" page would be more likely.

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Ukrainian forces blow up Russia’s most advanced tank with drone strike – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## Glider (Dec 28, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perhaps Elon will make a takeover bid.


There's a lot of money to be made in scrap metal

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Russia intensifies attacks on liberated Kherson and eastern Ukraine


Russian forces have stepped up mortar and artillery attacks on the recently liberated city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, Ukraine's military says.




www.abc.net.au

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 28, 2022)

Finally someone considering that there is a need for a cost/effective way of shooting down those slow drones. Lets see what they come-up with.

If they asked me, I'll propose a machine gun armed drone built around something like the XM214 XM214 Microgun - Wikipedia In a similar way that the A-10 was built around the GAU-8.

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## Glider (Dec 28, 2022)

Maybe it's just me but the tone of the reports of the fighting around Bakhmut is changing. 

Before it was all about the attacks and how much better they were than the Russian Army. Now its all about gunners saying that they haven't been given the ammunition needed for success. How its only the Wager Group that is doing the fighting. How they are dragging the bodies on their friends through the mud, that supplies are much needed.

It has a defeatist feel to it, as if they are blaming others for the lack of success. 

It's easy in the Wager Group when you have the power of life and death over people who cannot defend themselves, and call yourselves brave. Not so easy when the other side have the skill, drive and equipment to defend themselves. 

I could be being optimistic but I get the feel that they are failing and the Ukraine forces are slowly getting on top of the situation. Which would be huge, as the Russian forces have thrown almost everything into the fight.

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Italy to provide Ukraine €10 million of aid including air defense missile systems | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


taly will provide an additional €10 million of aid to Ukraine including air defense systems. Previously, Army Recognition reported that Italy planned to deliver SAMP/T




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

It's not all going Ukraine's way sadly:

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 28, 2022)

No. This is real war. Everybody bleeds. Except us armchair generals.

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## GTX (Dec 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> No. This is real war. Everybody bleeds. Except us armchair generals.


Oh I don't know...you should see the paper cut I have...

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## MiTasol (Dec 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I'd cheer him on just to see the e-mail dump. And then he'll fire half the army!



But only those who are essential for it to work properly

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## MiTasol (Dec 28, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> No. This is real war. Everybody bleeds. Except us armchair generals.



And the Russian Generals who commit suicide by jumping out of windows

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## SaparotRob (Dec 28, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> And the Russian Generals who commit suicide by jumping out of windows


They passed away from natural causes upon reaching terminal velocity.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 28, 2022)

Sudden Army Death Syndrome (SADS) is a very common occurrence in certain parts of the world, as is its related civilian counterpart, Sudden Oligarch Death Syndrome (SODS). Increased reporting of these common, if tragic, occurrences should not be used to fuel conspiracy theories regarding mRNA vaccines at all.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> They passed away from natural causes upon reaching terminal velocity.



So, so wrong. They were still alive at terminal velocity. It was the sudden stop that killed them...naturally.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 28, 2022)

What we call "well grounded".

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## GrauGeist (Dec 28, 2022)

Actually, the Ukrainians are killing most of Russia's generals...

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## buffnut453 (Dec 28, 2022)

I got a Russian Advent calendar in the run-up to Christmas. It's absolutely beautiful - a true work of art. 

The only problem is every time I open a window, an oligarch falls out.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Okay, Chancellor Scholz won’t send tanks to Ukraine until the U.S. does. Screw it!


That may be Finland’s POV as well.



https://ukranews.com/en/news/904762-finish-mp-s-calls-government-to-become-the-first-european-country-to-provide-ukraine-with-leopard-2



Since they’re not yet in NATO are they relying on security guarantees from the US? Or more likely, Finland shares the global realization that Russia is a paper tiger, incapable of invading anywhere, let alone a Russian graveyard like Finland.

Imagine Ivan’s fear when these beasts roll out of the winter’s mist.

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## buffnut453 (Dec 28, 2022)

Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC


Kyrylo Budanov says neither side can make significant advances, and eyes advanced Western weapons.



www.bbc.com

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## SaparotRob (Dec 28, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That may be Finland’s POV as well.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


In '39, Finland didn't need no lousy 'estinkin tanks.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 28, 2022)

MiTasol said:


> And the Russian Generals....


Another one just reported. Cause unreported.









Top former Russian general 'dies suddenly' after Putin cancels trip


General Alexei Maslov, 69, passed away on Christmas Day in a Moscow military hospital, the Uralvagonzavod plant announced. It follows the 'sudden death' of Alexander Buzakov.




www.dailymail.co.uk

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 28, 2022)

Nothing to see here. People that age just die. Especially in Russia.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 28, 2022)

Finland did have tanks in WWII, though.

Including the StuG III.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 28, 2022)

In '39?


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## GrauGeist (Dec 28, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> In '39?


Yep.

The Koiras and Naaras tanks were Renault FTs.

They had the Vickers Mk.E and some tankettes.

Once the Soviets attacked, Finland got all sorts of new tanks, although I think they had to retreive them on their own since no Ukrainian farmers were around at the time.

Then of course, they got some tanks later from Germany, like the PzKfw Mk.IV and StuG III.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

That's what I meant. No StuGs in '39.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> Sudden Army Death Syndrome (SADS) is a very common occurrence in certain parts of the world, as is its related civilian counterpart, Sudden Oligarch Death Syndrome (SODS). Increased reporting of these common, if tragic, occurrences should not be used to fuel conspiracy theories regarding mRNA vaccines at all.



So, SODs are sad, and SADs become sod? Interesting.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

_
*The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.[1] *US military doctrine defines culmination as the "point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense," and "when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause."[2] If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.

*Several indicators support the assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut have culminated.*

Senior Ukrainian officials are visiting frontline positions in Bakhmut unimpeded. Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) chief, Kyrylo Budanov, visited Bakhmut on December 27-28 and was geolocated to within at least 600 meters of the previously recorded Russian forward line of troops.[3] Budanov's visit supports previous Ukrainian social media reports that Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical counterattack that repelled Russian forces from the outskirts of Bakhmut on December 21.[4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Bakhmut on December 20.[5]_






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





Bad time of year to be in this state, if the weather cooperates with the Ukrainians. Forces in that state are ripe for being rolled up.

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## MiTasol (Dec 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Actually, the Ukrainians are killing most of Russia's generals...



Only the lucky ones who do not divulge their banking details to the Poo tin

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## MiTasol (Dec 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> That may be Finland’s POV as well.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Those Russians who know Russia/Finland history would be far more worried if they thought they had Finnish crews because Finland has beaten Russia so thoroughly without fail in the past.

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## Dimlee (Dec 29, 2022)

I remember "Rocket Summer" by Ray Bradbury, and "Martian Chronicles" was my favourite book.
Rocket winter continues in Ukraine.
Old Igla MANPADS vs incoming cruise missile. Igla wins.






Your browser is not able to display this video.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 29, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> I remember "Rocket Summer" by Ray Bradbury, and "Martian Chronicles" was my favourite book.
> Rocket winter continues in Ukraine.
> Old Igla MANPADS vs incoming cruise missile. Igla wins.
> 
> ...



Goodness that’s a fast missile. That aircraft must have been tens of km away when he fired, and it impacted only a few seconds after launch. What’s the top speed of these systems?

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## J_P_C (Dec 29, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> Goodness that’s a fast missile. That aircraft must have been tens of km away when he fired, and it impacted only a few seconds after launch. What’s the top speed of these systems?


~2,5 times faster than cruise missile

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 29, 2022)

J_P_C said:


> ~2,5 times faster than cruise missile


My bad, I thought it was an aircraft. A cruise missile would be easily IFF discernable and flying straight, so a good target.


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## cammerjeff (Dec 29, 2022)

I think this should be the new Russian Federation Flag

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 29, 2022)

*Countering shahed drones* with drones. I expected something glamorous like a dogfighter machine gun armed drone









‘Shahed Catchers’: Ukraine Will Deploy Interceptor Drones Against Russian Kamikazes (Updated - Defenders Identified)


Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Fedorov says they are now acquiring interceptor drones to bring down the waves of Iranian-made drones sent by Russia. This is the start of drone vs. drone combat.




www.forbes.com





But apparently they will basically *throw bricks at them.*






Anduril — Anvil







www.anduril.com





The Ukranian version seems a little bit more streamlined, but a brick nonetheless.



https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/v-ukrayini-predstavleno-bezpilotnyk-perehoplyuvach-fowler/



I know, I know, if its effective, who cares about the glamour, but it's hard to resist the brrrrrrrttttt factor

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## RogerdeLluria (Dec 29, 2022)

Nothing that has not been already discussed here, but interesting anyway that a supposedly expert think tank reaches the same conclussions than us, arm chair generals, in this thread.
So what about those F-16 and LEO-2 ?

_8/ @TheStudyofWar forecasts with high confidence that #Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion.

9/ #Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in #Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time.

10/ The risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO in the foreseeable future are thus extremely low._

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## GTX (Dec 29, 2022)

Russia fires barrage of missiles across Ukraine's major cities


Russia has fired scores of missiles into Ukraine, targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities in a massive aerial bombardment that has sent people rushing to shelters and knocked out power, Ukrainian authorities say.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 29, 2022)

Indian police investigating after two powerful Russians found dead within days of each other


Pavel Antov — a Russian politician and businessman who made his fortune in the sausage industry — died suddenly during a holiday in India this week.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Dec 29, 2022)

Informative artical on Ukraine's anti-UAV defense efforts.









Ukrainian Teams Hunt Russian Drones With Laser Rifles, Gun Trucks, Apps


Ukrainian volunteers have networks to issue alerts about incoming threats, which mobile teams then move to illuminate and shoot down.




www.thedrive.com

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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> I'd cheer him on just to see the e-mail dump. And then he'll fire half the army!





GTX said:


> Indian police investigating after two powerful Russians found dead within days of each other
> 
> 
> Pavel Antov — a Russian politician and businessman who made his fortune in the sausage industry — died suddenly during a holiday in India this week.
> ...


Well, whaddya know!


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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Informative artical on Ukraine's anti-UAV defense efforts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


High power lasers can destroy those drones in the air; no other weapon is needed.


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## Acheron (Dec 29, 2022)

manta22 said:


> High power lasers can destroy those drones in the air; no other weapon is needed.


Question is if high-powered lasers are more expensive than more conventional solutions.

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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

Acheron said:


> Question is if high-powered lasers are more expensive than more conventional solutions.


Initially, yes. You won't run out of ammo, though.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

I don’t think we’re at the man portable laser weapons yet. Unless there’s a deuce and a half with a generator following the troop.

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## cammerjeff (Dec 29, 2022)

But you do need a reliable power source, and at the moment that seems to be an issue.

Rob you beat me to the post button!

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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

Well GrauGeist always beats me!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Nothing that has not been already discussed here, but interesting anyway that a supposedly expert think tank reaches the same conclussions than us, arm chair generals, in this thread.
> So what about those F-16 and LEO-2 ?
> 
> _8/ @TheStudyofWar forecasts with high confidence that #Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion.
> ...



Read that this morning. Ray Charles saw this months ago, as did most of us.

In other news, scientists have found that air is useful to most life.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> Indian police investigating after two powerful Russians found dead within days of each other
> 
> 
> Pavel Antov — a Russian politician and businessman who made his fortune in the sausage industry — died suddenly during a holiday in India this week.
> ...



I guess he watched while the sausage was being made.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Initially, yes. You won't run out of ammo, though.



In an energy-starved country?

ETA: Dammit, two of yas beat me to it. Those batteries gotta recharge somewhere.

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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> In an energy-starved country?
> 
> ETA: Dammit, two of yas beat me to it. Those batteries gotta recharge somewhere.


They make portable generators these days...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 29, 2022)

manta22 said:


> They make portable generators these days...



Right, that run on fuel ... which must be brought up by vehicles, using ... fuel. And converting fossil-fuel energy densities to power lasers, well, how many bowsers you got?


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## GTX (Dec 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I don’t think we’re at the man portable laser weapons yet. Unless there’s a deuce and a half with a generator following the troop.


Saw this in person a few years back - same show in fact:



Not sure the current status.

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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, that run on fuel ... which must be brought up by vehicles, using ... fuel. And converting fossil-fuel energy densities to power lasers, well, how many bowsers you got?


You have to transport ammo, too. Fuel. Mark my words, lasers & charged particle beams are the weapons of the future. Some are here now but will be far more effective very soon.

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## GTX (Dec 29, 2022)



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## Snautzer01 (Dec 29, 2022)

Think it will buff out.

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## Glider (Dec 29, 2022)

manta22 said:


> You have to transport ammo, too. Fuel. Mark my words, lasers & charged particle beams are the weapons of the future. Some are here now but will be far more effective very soon.


Whilst I totally agree with your word. In the eal world where the West are afraid to give Ukraine F16's, old M1 tanks, what are the chances of giving them state of the art Lasers?


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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Read that this morning. Ray Charles saw this months ago, as did most of us.
> 
> In other news, scientists have found that air is useful to most life.


Fake news.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

GTX said:


> Saw this in person a few years back - same show in fact:
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure the current status.



Oerlikon-_A name you can trust!_

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## GrauGeist (Dec 29, 2022)

Currently, the lasers (and related energy weapons) require quite a bit of power.

The U.S. Navy has one system they've been working on and it's aboard a destroyer. Other mobile systems have been tested aboard large aircraft, though much lower power due to limited energy supply.

Israel has a laser system incorporated into it's Iron Dome defense, but the weapons are stationary and only capable of taking down balloons at this point in time.

It's going to be a while before we see Star Wars style mobile and hand-held laser weapons on the battlefield.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 29, 2022)

But you should've heard what those balloons were saying. They deserved it!

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## manta22 (Dec 29, 2022)

I agree but lasers and particle-beam weapons would be ideal. It will be a while before they are TO&E but that day is coming.

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## fubar57 (Dec 29, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Oerlikon-_A name you can trust!_


Except it is now Rheinmetall Air Defence AG

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 29, 2022)

GTX said:


>



But the Russians have left hundreds of MBTs fully intact?


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## GrauGeist (Dec 29, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> But you should've heard what those balloons were saying. They deserved it!


Hezbollah was using balloon bombs for a while.

Not nearly as complex as the Japanese balloon bombs, but still dangerous.

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## Acheron (Dec 30, 2022)

manta22 said:


> Initially, yes. You won't run out of ammo, though.





manta22 said:


> You have to transport ammo, too. Fuel. Mark my words, lasers & charged particle beams are the weapons of the future. Some are here now but will be far more effective very soon.


True, but be careful. Conventional artillery for example of course needs ammo. Apart from that, the system needs a new barrel every so often. Also minor stuff like, I dunno, lubricants? Seems like every military piece of equipment needs those.

What I mean is, depending how how the laser or charged particle beam or whatever is made, it might need some stuff at a rate and cost where it could approach ammo (though weight savings should still be considerable). I know far too little of the issue, I just remember something about some lasers at least using gases for example, if these leak, you need to replenish them, as an example.

Also be extra careful with lasers and other beam-weapons because, let's face it, they are cool, and when some gear is cool, we tend to be overly enthusiastic about it instead of sitting down and doing a cold- and stone-hearted cost-benefit analysis. Way too many military projects got way too much money because of that.

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## at6 (Dec 30, 2022)

WARSPITER said:


> Perhaps Elon will make a takeover bid.


Elon could have the Orcs for a fraction of what he spent on Twitter.

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## at6 (Dec 30, 2022)

Hell. Blow up that damned bridge in Crimea already. Make it irreparable.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

manta22 said:


> You have to transport ammo, too. Fuel. Mark my words, lasers & charged particle beams are the weapons of the future. Some are here now but will be far more effective very soon.



I don't doubt that they're in the future, I just don't see that they have unlimited ammo. 2LoT is a bitch. _Both_ are subject to interdiction, too.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 30, 2022)

Acheron said:


> Also be extra careful with lasers and other beam-weapons because, let's face it, they are cool, and when some gear is cool, we tend to be overly enthusiastic about it instead of sitting down and doing a cold- and stone-hearted cost-benefit analysis. Way too many military projects got way too much money because of that.


Great truth.

This is a nice article about harmful military innovación:









Dangerous Changes: When Military Innovation Harms Combat Effectiveness


Abstract. Prevailing wisdom suggests that innovation dramatically enhances the effectiveness of a state's armed forces. But self-defeating innovation is more likely to occur when a military service's growing security commitments outstrip shrinking resources. This wide commitment-resource gap...




direct.mit.edu

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 30, 2022)

at6 said:


> Hell. Blow up that damned bridge in Crimea already. Make it irreparable.


No, wait until Crimea is cut off by land, under attack, and the bridge is wall-to-wall with reinforcements and supplies, then hit it with an all-out saturation attack, dropping multiple spans and destroying multiple piers. Meanwhile, keep your latest long range weapons innovations under wraps to avoid countermeasures development. How about a submersible version of the drone attack boats, with AI, inertial, and GPS guidance? The Kerch Strait is so heavily traveled its subsurface topography must be pretty thoroughly mapped, a la "Red Route One" from _Hunt for Red October, _n'est ce pas?
GAME OVER

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## Dimlee (Dec 30, 2022)

Bakhmut...

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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

I forgot to add a key factor about current laser/energy weapon technology: Weather.

If there is heavy overcast, smoke, dust, etc., it diminishes or defeats the beam's effectiveness.

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## Snautzer01 (Dec 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> No, wait until Crimea is cut off by land, under attack, and the bridge is wall-to-wall with reinforcements and supplies, then hit it with an all-out saturation attack, dropping multiple spans and destroying multiple piers. Meanwhile, keep your latest long range weapons innovations under wraps to avoid countermeasures development. How about a submersible version of the drone attack boats, with AI, inertial, and GPS guidance? The Kerch Strait is so heavily traveled its subsurface topography must be pretty thoroughly mapped, a la "Red Route One" from _Hunt for Red October, _n'est ce pas?
> GAME OVER


Look in you tube for the fight of Kerch street ww2.

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## wlewisiii (Dec 30, 2022)

Just saw this

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## wlewisiii (Dec 30, 2022)



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## SaparotRob (Dec 30, 2022)

wlewisiii said:


> Just saw this



Baby steps. We should have been sprinting by now. The finish line is so close!


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## GTX (Dec 30, 2022)

Vladimir Putin says 'dear friend' Xi Jinping will visit Russia in early 2023


The two world leaders meet via video conference, but say they expect to meet in person in the coming months.




www.abc.net.au

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## fubar57 (Dec 30, 2022)

I think some "dear friend" is about to rip ole buddy a new one and tell him to get this mess over with ASAP

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## GTX (Dec 30, 2022)

fubar57 said:


> I think some "dear friend" is about to rip ole buddy a new one and tell him to get this mess over with ASAP


Indeed - Maybe this is the follow up to the reported letter:



GTX said:


> Interesting if true: Xi Jinping 'demands letter from Vladimir Putin explaining how and when the Ukraine war will end'

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 30, 2022)

Snautzer01 said:


> Look in you tube for the fight of Kerch street ww2.


Thanks! Wilco.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

I'm sure that Jinping also told Putler to give a realistic explanation, not this delusional fantasy-trippin' bullshit that he's been blathering to the media.


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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure that Jinping also told Putler to give a realistic explanation, not this delusional fantasy-trippin' bullshit that he's been blathering to the media.


Realistic explanation? Is he capable?

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## GTX (Dec 30, 2022)



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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Realistic explanation? Is he capable?


I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.

He is fully aware of his failure to subdue Ukraine and his bluffs have been called every step of the way. He's used to spinning the situation that gives the illusion that he's in control and will keep trying until that bluff wears out, too.

But Jinping, who also uses the same tactics, can instantly spot bullshit a mile away, because he too, is a master of control.

So Putin is going to have to speak to him in real terms. Especially since Communist China knows Russia's position as a world power has eclipsed and has no real bargaining power if China puts him to the test.

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## Acheron (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.
> 
> He is fully aware of his failure to subdue Ukraine and his bluffs have been called every step of the way. He's used to spinning the situation that gives the illusion that he's in control and will keep trying until that bluff wears out, too.
> 
> ...


Meh. With both dictators, I suspect either their position has gone to their heads or that they always had a tendency to ignore things that didn't fit in their worldview. Which works when you are the big boss and can punish anyone who disagrees with you, but reality cannot be bullied.

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## XBe02Drvr (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.


Imperious leaders see, hear, and breathe pixie dust and unicorn droppings. Their sycophants see to that, and eventually it erodes their hold on reality.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.



At this stage in his life, basing our assessment of his grip on reality by his actions thirty years ago may not be accurate. Aging has a way of disconnecting folks from the reality they grew up in, whether that be from onset senile dementia or an inability to adapt to changes as one's views ossify.

That said, I am not sure one way or the other how connected Putin is to reality. That depends on how much of his bullshit he actually believes, and who here can say what that answer is?

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## Glider (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I'm sure he is - a former low ranking KGB officer that worked his way up to imperious leader would not happen if his head was full of pixie dust and unicorn droppings.
> 
> He is fully aware of his failure to subdue Ukraine and his bluffs have been called every step of the way. He's used to spinning the situation that gives the illusion that he's in control and will keep trying until that bluff wears out, too.
> 
> ...


It would be interesting to know what price China will get for any help that Putin gets. He is in no position to negotiate and will do literally anything to stay alive both politically and medically.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 30, 2022)

I'm seeing Haishenwai as a PLAN naval base.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm seeing Haishenwai as a PLAN naval base.



Basing rights, perhaps? Cession of the base itself would probably be a bridge too far for Putin.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Basing rights, perhaps? Cession of the base itself would probably be a bridge too far for Putin.


Cinsidering how China has a hard-on for "one China" and reclaiming "lost lands", I'd bet good money on China eyeing both Vladivostok and "outer Manchuria".

There was also that issue of the border along the Ussuri river.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> Cinsidering how China has a hard-on for "one China" and reclaiming "lost lands", I'd bet good money on China eyeing both Vladivostok and "outer Manchuria".
> 
> There was also that issue of the border along the Ussuri river.



China may be eyeing Vladivostok and a chunk of Siberia based on historical claims, but could Putin cede those and survive politically? The infosphere in Russia has many hard-liners who are already very critical of the Russian execution of ops in Ukraine, while still on board with the war aims of the Putin government in Ukraine ... for now. These are factors Putin must consider.

Should he make such huge concessions to the Chinese in pursuit of equipment for immediate war aims, I think -- and this is only my guess, nothing more -- that they'd turn on him for trading one part of Russia for what they see as another. In domestic Russia, wouldn't it look like a wash? Or even a tacit admission of subservience?

The various border clashes Russia and China have had also underline the fact that while they may have made a production-number out of "unlimited support" in the February summit, both sides may actually be approaching this from a perspective of _Realpolitik_ or quid pro quo. That's what I think such a trade of territory for Chinese support would boil down to, and again, could Putin survive it? It would essentially be acknowledging Russian subservience to China, and that would not be a good look, politically, in any authoritarian country, especially one already experiencing internal dissent over a failing war.

That's my read on it, at least. Happy to read any rebuttals or other differing views, of course. It's a complex issue and no one here (and that includes me too) can be sure, in my opinion.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

China just recently sailed it's fleet close to Guam in a show of force - if they're willing to eff with the U.S. Navy, as powerful as it is, Russia in it's current state, would not have a chance.

Of course, there would be some "reason" (overtly/covertly) for the territorial grab, but I really doubt that Vlad the inhaler would give up any Russian territory willingly but is by no means capable of stopping China if they do.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> China just recently sailed it's fleet close to Guam in a show of force - if they're willing to eff with the U.S. Navy, as powerful as it is, Russia in it's current state, would not have a chance.
> 
> Of course, there would be some "reason" (overtly/covertly) for the territorial grab, but I really doubt that Vlad the inhaler would give up any Russian territory willingly but is by no means capable of stopping China if they do.



Agreed, Russia couldn't stop it if it came down to brass tacks, but I don't think Putin would accede to it willingly; I think he'd force China's hand if that was actually a Chinese demand. I think he's looking out first and foremost for himself, and conceding a large swathe of Russia for temporary help in this war would likely be seen for the bloodless defeat it would be, internally. His regime likely wouldn't survive it, and I bet that's a factor in Putin's calculations.

ETA: Of course, Putin could try to spin it as China joining in on the international "attack" on Russia.

ETA2: I don't see China politically as being willing to paint the only friendly semi-superpower into a corner, either.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

To be honest, there is a local military that holds more potential than Russia, ranks in tje world's top 5 and is often overlooked: India.

China would be better off kicking Russia to the curb and wooing India.

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## SaparotRob (Dec 30, 2022)

I can't see Putin willingly give up territory in the east. I believe the four occupied Ukrainian Oblasts have "disappeared" from official Russian maps, if so, that's a tacit acknowledgement they're about to lose territory in the west. One of the revolutions Russia had (one of the smaller ones) happened over the loss to Japan. Putin woke up the West and Xi must really hate that guy. Putin has brilliantly pulled military hardware from the east and Xi must be looking at Vladivostok. That would suck for Japan, AUKUS and Canada if PLAN has more exit points into the Pacific. And a real nice harbor. I don't know how in touch with reality Putin is, whether by delusion or seclusion but he must know it's falling apart. There will be flowery rhetoric but this "more than friends" thing means China does what is best for China. 
Without even bothering with any thought of unintended consequences, I was thinking India for UN Security Council after Russia is removed. That should piss off China for a while

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> To be honest, there is a local military that holds more potential than Russia, ranks in the world's top 5 and is often overlooked: India.
> 
> China would be better off kicking Russia to the curb and wooing India.



Xi has clearly missed that bus, considering the Chinese provocations on that border over the last few years. Of course it would be smart money, but Modi has based his own power in India on appealing to nationalist sentiment, and isn't likely to trade that away for vague promises from Beijing, given the bloody and at times fatal fighting on the frontier.

We in America should nurture our relationship with India. They're very important given China's moves in the South China Sea, aimed at throttling the Straits of Malacca, it seems to me.

China would have to cross the tallest mountain range in the world to get at India on the ground. That's why India is busy building its navy, and this works towards stability insofar as as a regional power India seems willing to patrol and police the ocean named after their country. Chinese expansionism southward faces serious geographic hurdles on land.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> Without even bothering with any thought of unintended consequences, I was thinking India for UN Security Council after Russia is removed. That piss off occupy China for a while



It's a shame there's no protocol for removing and replacing a sitting Security Council power, or at least requiring an SC member to recuse from voting on its own actions. Russia should not have veto-power over any resolution condemning its own war crimes.

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 30, 2022)

The Permanent Members would have it no other way. You can talk about democracy, equality, and self-determination all you want, but the imperial powers are more equal than others.

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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

The UN was established by the primary victors of WWII, so that core membership would be hard to disestablish.
I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.


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## Admiral Beez (Dec 30, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We in America should nurture our relationship with India. They're very important given China's moves in the South China Sea, aimed at throttling the Straits of Malacca, it seems to me. China would have to cross the tallest mountain range in the world to get at India on the ground.


It goes both ways. With a near permanent collapse of their pal Russia‘s power and influence, and China’s expansion into the I/O, India needs to get in the West’s good books. They’re making some progress.









US stands with India after joint military exercises, says 'None of China's business'


After China stated the exercises in Auli, which is about 100 kilometres from the border, violated the spirit of two border agreements, India's foreign ministry responded harshly on Thursday. India's foreign ministry said, "India exercises with whomever it likes, and we do not grant other parties...




www.timesnownews.com













India, UK hold two-day joint naval drill in Indian Ocean


The exercise was designed to hone the ability of the two navies to operate together in the maritime domain was held on Wednesday and Thursday.




www.newindianexpress.com













India and EU conduct joint naval exercise in Gulf of Aden


India and the European Union have carried out a joint naval drill in the Gulf of Aden to improve interoperability among the forces.




www.naval-technology.com





Now, there’s one thing India can do today. Offer two hundred of their fully operational Russian-made T-72s to a “scrap“ merchant in Morocco, for a quick flip to Ukraine.






The Indian T-72 Ajeya Tank - TankNutDave.com


The Indian T-72 Ajeya Tank is a licence manufactured Russian T-72M1 started in the late 1970’s. Some 1700 have been delivered to the Indian Army.



tanknutdave.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It goes both ways. With a near permanent collapse of their pal Russia‘s power and influence, and China’s expansion into the I/O, India needs to get in the West’s good books. They’re making some progress.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's a multilateral world, to be sure. We'll be seeing alliances dance and shift for a while as everyone sorts out the fallout of Russia's massive failure and what it means for the international order, I suspect. The only sure bet is that Russia will be out in the cold, cap in hand and begging, five or so years from now. They've squandered _the_ major asset of a superpower, credibility, in this imbroglio.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.


You can’t have a unanimous vote without everyone’s vote, including Russia’s.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The UN was established by the primary victors of WWII, so that core membership would be hard to disestablish.
> I am not well versed in the UN's charter, but I don't see why a resolution can't be passed to remove a member from the security Council by a unanimous vote.



There's no such mechanism, just the same as while many of us would love to evict Turkey from NATO, there's no clause allowing for it.


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## GrauGeist (Dec 30, 2022)

It's a sticky situation, but not impossible.

It could lead to long term implications, though.

The UN is about as worthless as tits on a Nun, in any event.









Can Russia Be Removed from the U.N. Security Council?


Created to maintain global peace and stability, the council is powerless as one of its permanent members wages a brutal unprovoked war in Ukraine.




diplomaticacademy.us

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> It's a sticky situation, but not impossible..



The fox has a vote on defending the henhouse, and we have no means to take that vote away.

Just as NATO should have, every joint organization needs to have an expulsion clause. The UN doesn't have any mechanism to remove a SC member.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 30, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The Permanent Members would have it no other way. You can talk about democracy, equality, and self-determination all you want, but the imperial powers are more equal than others.



The UN is very near its sell-by date.

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## at6 (Dec 31, 2022)

As for pissoff , the blonde skank. plus Medvedev. Lavrov, and yes even Putin, I would gladly send them to a gas and burn.


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## WARSPITER (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The UN is very near its sell-by date.


True. Finding a buyer would be the hard part.

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## Frog (Dec 31, 2022)

at6 said:


> As for pissoff , the blonde skank. plus Medvedev. Lavrov, and yes even Putin, I would gladly send them to a gas and burn.



You can spare the ''gas'' stage.


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## Glider (Dec 31, 2022)

Just a personal view.

India is in a difficult position. Pakistan has stayed close to China to counterbalance India which recently has been closer to Russia for its military and political support. Now they find that Russia is a busted flush and there are fundamental issues with its military equipment both current and future. As a result they are now turning more to Europe and the USA.

China probably cannot believe their luck. The closest superpower was (note past tense) Russia and they have just thrown themselves onto the wrong side of history. Militarily and economically they have trashed their future and are in no position to negotiate with anyone from a position of strength. Look at the way those small independent states reliant in the recent past on Russia have humiliated Putin by making him wait for them at meetings.
Politically I cannot see Russia giving area's of land to China. However, I can see Russia giving China access to ports and support areas for use in the 'new era of co-operation between the two countries'. Letting Chinese vessels harbour and base themselves in Russian ports, with the required infrastructure and repair facilities. Then it is only a small step away from Free Ports where companies from both countries can build businesses and trading industries.
Before you know it Russia will become more dependent of China.

Its a guess but there is some logic to it

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Just as NATO should have, every joint organization needs to have an expulsion clause. The UN doesn't have any mechanism to remove a SC member.


As much as Turkey is annoying, kicking them out of NATO would only push them towards Islamofascism or otherwise into closer ties with Russia or China. 

China is already building strong political, economic and military links with the ‘Stans in order to link China to the Caspian Sea. Once secured, China will be looking to Azerbaijan and Georgia to link to the Black Sea. If Turkey is expelled from NATO Ankara could well seek friendship as Beijing seeks further expansion into the Mediterranean.

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## swampyankee (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The fox has a vote on defending the henhouse, and we have no means to take that vote away.
> 
> Just as NATO should have, every joint organization needs to have an expulsion clause. The UN doesn't have any mechanism to remove a SC member.


The Security Council's role was setup so as to prevent the UN from interfering in whatever the five permanent members, including the US, wanted to do internationally. It's working exactly as designed.

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## glennasher (Dec 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As much as Turkey is annoying, kicking them out of NATO would only push them towards Islamofascism or otherwise into closer ties with Russia or China.
> 
> China is already building strong political, economic and military links with the ‘Stans in order to link China to the Caspian Sea. Once secured, China will be looking to Azerbaijan and Georgia to link to the Black Sea. If Turkey is expelled from NATO Ankara could well seek friendship as Beijing seeks further expansion into the Mediterranean.


I'm not so sure about that. The way China treats its Muslim (the Uigars) doesn't really foster much goodwill with other Islamic countries. If they keep treating their own Muslims that way, other Muslim countries will think twice about a relationship with them.

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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)

GrauGeist said:


> The UN is about as worthless as tits on a Nun, in any event.


For all people's frustrations, overall I believe the world is a lot better off with the UN these last 80 odd years than without it.

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## fubar57 (Dec 31, 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-zelenskyy-2023-1.6696963

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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It goes both ways. With a near permanent collapse of their pal Russia‘s power and influence, and China’s expansion into the I/O, India needs to get in the West’s good books. They’re making some progress.


Agreed. The increasing prevalence of the BJP and Narendra Modi over the last 1 - 2 decades is disturbing though as it brings a new bunch of potential troubles that need to be avoided.


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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)

Russian missiles strike Ukraine on New Year's Eve, at least one person dead


Russia carries out its second major round of missile attacks on Ukraine in three days, Kyiv says, with explosions reported throughout the country on the final day of 2022.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)

Leader Loss: Russian Junior Officer Casualties


Russian losses in their war against Ukraine have been high, but the deaths of junior officers are especially painful.




cepa.org

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> The Security Council's role was setup so as to prevent the UN from interfering in whatever the five permanent members, including the US, wanted to do internationally. It's working exactly as designed.



It's working, but I wouldn't say "exactly" -- as it wasn't envisioned that one of the policemen would go corrupt as is the case here.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> As much as Turkey is annoying, kicking them out of NATO would only push them towards Islamofascism or otherwise into closer ties with Russia or China.



They're so far along that road that keeping them in introduces Islamofascism into NATO councils.



Admiral Beez said:


> China is already building strong political, economic and military links with the ‘Stans in order to link China to the Caspian Sea. Once secured, China will be looking to Azerbaijan and Georgia to link to the Black Sea. If Turkey is expelled from NATO Ankara could well seek friendship as Beijing seeks further expansion into the Mediterranean.



Sure, I just don't see Turkey as important as they were in the 70s and 80s.


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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)



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## Warspite63 (Dec 31, 2022)

GTX said:


> For all people's frustrations, overall I believe the world is a lot better off with the UN these last 80 odd years than without it.


Agreed - a flawed framework for international conduct is better than no framework at all

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> as it wasn't envisioned that one of the policemen would go corrupt as is the case here.


Don't forget that USSR with Uncle Joe at the helm was there from the start, so I think that was envisioned.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Don't forget that USSR with Uncle Joe at the helm was there from the start, so I think that was envisioned.



Stalin wanted to -- and did -- abuse his nation's position on the SC but you've got a lot of work to do to convince me that FDR and Churchill were fine with that -- especially after the Yalta Conference. Are you honestly arguing that they intended to give Stalin a free hand?


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## Greg Boeser (Dec 31, 2022)

No, they intended that they would have a free hand.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus




Greg Boeser said:


> No, they intended that they would have a free hand.


Just that.


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## buffnut453 (Dec 31, 2022)

Don't know if this is wishful thinking on the part of the West but, if there's a genuine rift between the Wagner Group and the Russian military, I'll be getting some popcorn ready to munch as I watch the fallout:









Russian Mercenary Leader's War Of Words With Moscow's Military Brass Deepens Amid Fighting In Bakhmut


The war of words is the latest in what many analysts see as a deepening rift under way between the Russian military elite and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Vagner mercenary company, amid Russia’s setbacks on the battlefield.




www.rferl.org

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## at6 (Dec 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> No, they intended that they would have a free hand.


I tried having a free hand once. I had to leave the rest of her in the cemetery.


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## GTX (Dec 31, 2022)

Russia, If You’re Listening with Matt Bevan - ABC


Has Vladimir Putin made the biggest mistake of his life?




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 31, 2022)

GTX said:


>

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## ThomasP (Dec 31, 2022)

Well said Admiral Beez!

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> No, they intended that they would have a free hand.



Right, but that doesn't encompass the entirety of the reasons for the founding countries of the UN, only one; so claiming that the UN is operating "exactly as intended" is not accurate. It's operating as intended by one nation.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

GTX said:


> Russia, If You’re Listening with Matt Bevan - ABC
> 
> 
> Has Vladimir Putin made the biggest mistake of his life?
> ...



In a word, "YES."

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## fubar57 (Dec 31, 2022)

The biggest mistake.....so far

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## Greg Boeser (Dec 31, 2022)

The UN is operating in the way intended by the founders. If each nation's vote were equal, a bunch of small countries could band together against the imperial powers embodied in the permanent members of the Security Council. Seven decades later, in spite of the collapse of the French, British and Russian empires, their veto powers remain.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

Greg Boeser said:


> The UN is operating in the way intended by the founders. If each nation's vote were equal, a bunch of small countries could band together against the imperial powers embodied in the permanent members of the Security Council. Seven decades later, in spite of the collapse of the French, British and Russian empires, their veto powers remain.



That part is accurate, but it doesn't address my point.


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## wlewisiii (Dec 31, 2022)



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## swampyankee (Dec 31, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but that doesn't encompass the entirety of the reasons for the founding countries of the UN, only one; so claiming that the UN is operating "exactly as intended" is not accurate. It's operating as intended by one nation.


The US, UK, and France ended WW2 with either spheres of influence or outright colonial empires. They all wanted to make sure that the UN wouldn't interfere with, say, their actions in Central America, Iraq (basically run by the UK through a puppet government), or Algeria. While it's impossible to argue that Stalin was interested in freedom anyplace or at anytime, there were times and places when the US, UK, and France weren't terribly concerned with it, either.

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## Admiral Beez (Dec 31, 2022)

One of the flaws with the League of Nations was that the US was not a member, in this case voluntarily. Germany was also excluded until 1926, and the USSR expelled in Dec 1939 when it invaded Finland. You need to have all the world powers involved in any such global forums as the UN.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

swampyankee said:


> The US, UK, and France ended WW2 with either spheres of influence or outright colonial empires. They all wanted to make sure that the UN wouldn't interfere with, say, their actions in Central America, Iraq (basically run by the UK through a puppet government), or Algeria. While it's impossible to argue that Stalin was interested in freedom anyplace or at anytime, there were times and places when the US, UK, and France weren't terribly concerned with it, either.



Which is a bit different than saying the UN worked "exactly" as intended. It sure didn't help Eastern Europe in the late 40s, despite UK, US, and France being on the SC and being against the Sovietization of the region.

In other words, the various countries that founded the organization had different intentions, and so how "exact" can you be, really? No, the member states used what leverages they could to get as much as they could, but it didn't work "exactly" for any of them.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Dec 31, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> One of the flaws with the League of Nations was that the US was not a member, in this case voluntarily. Germany was also excluded until 1926, and the USSR expelled in Dec 1939 when it invaded Finland. You need to have all the world powers involved in any such global forums as the UN.



They also have to share the same ethical premises.

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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)

Russian and Ukrainian leaders vow to achieve victory in 2023 New Year speeches


Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaks of gratitude and pain as Russia's Vladimir Putin paints the war as a near-existential fight.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)

Russia "quickly running out" of weapons Putin needs in Ukraine: General


Moscow has reportedly been shoring up its political partnership with China, with Vladimir Putin pressing the ally nation for military support as well.




www.newsweek.com

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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)



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## SaparotRob (Jan 1, 2023)

As much as I’ve been hearing Russia is quickly running out of ammo, it would be nice if they would be quicker about it.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 1, 2023)

More alternate reality from Putinworld:









Ukraine war: New year in Putin’s Russia - nothing is normal


The BBC's Steve Rosenberg on the Kremlin's alternative reality as 2023 begins.



www.bbc.com

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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)

'A lot of pain and suffering': The battle of firefighters on Ukraine's frontline


Firefighters in war-torn Bakhmut describe their duties as "de-mine, evacuate, put out fires, provide water and clear the rubble", while battling the emotional toll of working during wartime.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)

Defiant Ukrainians cheer as Russian drones shot down above Kyiv on New Year's Eve


Ukrainians cheer from their balconies while air defences blast Russian missiles and drones from the sky in the first hours of 2023.




www.abc.net.au

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## MiTasol (Jan 1, 2023)

I am not hearing anything about this lately. Was it a failure? Or did the orcs harden the drones against it?






Ukraine's anti-drone gun brings down Russian DJI Mavic Pro UAV


A new video shows Ukraine using an anti-drone gun to force a surveilling Russian DJI Mavic Pro drone to execute an emergency landing.




dronedj.com


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## GTX (Jan 1, 2023)

Putin Has No Red Lines


There are better ways to think about strategy.




www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## swampyankee (Jan 1, 2023)

glennasher said:


> I'm not so sure about that. The way China treats its Muslim (the Uigars) doesn't really foster much goodwill with other Islamic countries. If they keep treating their own Muslims that way, other Muslim countries will think twice about a relationship with them.


...on the other hand, a lot of Islamic countries treat Muslims like crap, especially if they're the wrong variety of Islam.

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## Snautzer01 (Jan 2, 2023)



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## buffnut453 (Jan 2, 2023)

Even the Russians are admitting casualties this time, so it must have been bad:









Ukraine claims hundreds of Russians killed by missile attack


Ukraine says 400 were killed - the total has not been verified, but Russia acknowledged the strike.



www.bbc.com

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## Denniss (Jan 2, 2023)

judging from their official death figures for their "special military operation" they probably admit only 10% (or lower) of real losses.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

Three leaders hold the fate of 2023 in their hands — and the world is watching


Predicting outcomes of the Ukraine war is nearly impossible. However, five variables are likely to have a significant impact on the course of the conflict in 2023, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au


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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)



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## fubar57 (Jan 2, 2023)

GTX said:


> Three leaders hold the fate of 2023 in their hands — and the world is watching
> 
> 
> Predicting outcomes of the Ukraine war is nearly impossible. However, five variables are likely to have a significant impact on the course of the conflict in 2023, writes Mick Ryan.
> ...



What about this little wannabe git?








https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/north-korea-increase-nuclear-warhead-production-kim-jong-un-1.6700878

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

fubar57 said:


> What about this little wannabe git?
> 
> View attachment 700776​


As you said, a wannabe...hence why he is firing missiles and making pronouncements - "look at me...look at me...!!!!". If he ever does anything truly serious like fire a nuke at the west his little kingdom will become glass.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)



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## fubar57 (Jan 2, 2023)

The big difference, military base vs hospital wing

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

Fighting in Ukraine reveals Russian air force's fragility: think tank — Business Insider

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 2, 2023)

An interesting article I just read regarding potential 2023 operations to be found here. It's got a lot of pertinent points that defy excerpting, so I'll just post the link. It's worth the read.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> An interesting article I just read regarding potential 2023 operations to be found here. It's got a lot of pertinent points that defy excerpting, so I'll just post the link. It's worth the read.


Not bad. I do take issue with this line though: "_It also must deliver more armored vehicles, specifically German Leopard-2 Tanks; the U.S. must twist Germany's arm until those tanks reach Ukraine._"

As I have said/questioned before - why the focus on Germany and the Leo 2s? What about M1 Abrams or Leclerc's or Challengers or Arietes or K1s or Merkavas?

Looking at the numbers:

M1 Abrams: The US army alone supposedly has some 2500 in service and another 3500+ in storage - surely some of those could be supplied?
Leo 2s: Germany has about 300 in service. 
Challenger 2: Britain has some 400 odd
Leclerc: France has some 220 odd
Ariete: Italy has some 200
K1: Korea has some 1500 in service
Merkava: Israel has produced ~2000 over the years and even the older ones would be welcomed...along with some Namer IFVs...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 2, 2023)

GTX said:


> Not bad. I do take issue with this line though: "_It also must deliver more armored vehicles, specifically German Leopard-2 Tanks; the U.S. must twist Germany's arm until those tanks reach Ukraine._"
> 
> As I have said/questioned before - why the focus on Germany and the Leo 2s? What about M1 Abrams or Leclerc's or Challengers or Arietes or K1s or Merkavas?
> 
> ...



Agreed on all counts. America has the resources to take the lead on this -- and so we should.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

I would like to see Israel step up and deliver a couple of hundred (or even tens of) Merkavas and Namers...along with Iron Dome.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 2, 2023)

More on the Mkiivka strike:









Russia says dozens of its troops killed in attack in eastern Ukraine


Russia has acknowledged that dozens of its troops were killed in one of the Ukraine war's deadliest strikes, drawing demands from Russian nationalist bloggers for commanders to be punished for housing soldiers alongside an ammunition dump.




www.reuters.com

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## GrauGeist (Jan 2, 2023)

Israel will not do anything that will compromise it's security.

In regards to Germany and the Leopard. It's not about Germany parting with it's Leopards but not allowing any other nation from sending theirs.

The Abrams is an obvious choice for Ukraine, but it would take time to not only get the tanks into Ukraine, but spare parts and ammunition, too.

Then there's the training factor (crews and mechanics) that would keep them off the battlefield for over half a year, at least.

The idea of sending former Soviet equipment to Ukraine is the best choice at the moment: zero down time for crews and zero down time for mechanics. Spare parts not only in depots, but being drug in by farmers as well as ammunition already in stockpiles, nearby nations and donated by the Russians.

This means no interruptions in offensive/defensive ops.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 2, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Israel will not do anything that will compromise it's security.
> 
> In regards to Germany and the Leopard. It's not about Germany parting with it's Leopards but not allowing any other nation from sending theirs.
> 
> ...



Right, but when driving we're told to look down the road, not at the end of the hood. The time for us to start taking these steps is now, even they won't come to fruition for 12-18 months. The Ukrainians will be in danger for a long time to come, after all.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Israel will not do anything that will compromise it's security.


Agreed plus they have a large ex-Russian community.


GrauGeist said:


> The Abrams is an obvious choice for Ukraine, but it would take time to not only get the tanks into Ukraine, but spare parts and ammunition, too.
> 
> Then there's the training factor (crews and mechanics) that would keep them off the battlefield for over half a year, at least.


Agreed - my point was more that the focus is often put on Germany and the Leo2s as though they are the only game in town re more modern tanks.


GrauGeist said:


> The idea of sending former Soviet equipment to Ukraine is the best choice at the moment: zero down time for crews and zero down time for mechanics. Spare parts not only in depots, but being drug in by farmers as well as ammunition already in stockpiles, nearby nations and donated by the Russians.


Agree again.

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## GTX (Jan 2, 2023)

Sadly I think the chances of Israel supporting Ukraine have taken a backward step now that Benjamin Netanyahu is back in power especially with the coalition he now leads.

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## GrauGeist (Jan 2, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but when driving we're told to look down the road, not at the end of the hood. The time for us to start taking these steps is now, even they won't come to fruition for 12-18 months. The Ukrainians will be in danger for a long time to come, after all.


As I've mentioned before, I suspect there's alot of things going on behind the curtain that's not being shared with the media.

Once Ukraine started to seriously whip Russia's ass last summer, the Western hawks most likely felt investment in Ukraine defense was not a risk.
As such, brining small groups of Ukrainian trainees at a time to learn NATO style weapon systems (AFVs, Fighters, etc.) may be a reality.

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 2, 2023)

GTX said:


> As I have said/questioned before - why the focus on Germany and the Leo 2s?


It’s the only pan-European MBT. AIUI, the issue is that other Leopard II operators would like to consider donating their tanks to Ukraine, but they can’t unless Germany provides the spares and maintenance support. It‘s fine if Germany doesn’t want to share their Leo2 tanks, but Germany is also blocking Poland, the Baltics Reps, Finland, and others from sending Leo2 to Ukraine. At least that’s my take.









Leopard 2 From Finland And Other Allies For Ukraine: How Real Their Transfer Is | Defense Express


The Leopard 2 can be called a "pan-European" tank, which allows us to assess the possibility of its transfer not by one country, but by 5-10 allies at once




en.defence-ua.com

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## buffnut453 (Jan 2, 2023)

Can't disagree with the thoughts expressed here:









Ukraine war: Putin should face trial this year, says top lawyer


Russia's leader is a "guilty man", says the barrister who led the case against Serbia's ex-leader Milosevic.



www.bbc.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 2, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> Can't disagree with the thoughts expressed here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



In essence, it's stating that peace itself is a hostage. That too should be a war-crime.

The Russians are literally trying to freeze the Ukrainians into submission. They've tried to use attacks on grain exports to deliver hunger onto other countries, in the hopes of getting those countries to pressure for peace. They've tortured, maimed, and murdered thousands in the hopes that terror can take up the slack where their military has failed. These decisions have all come from the top.

Sadly, Putin will likely never pay the price for his own crimes, and the crimes he has ordered, aided, and abetted. Neither Russia nor the world will heal until he's breathing dirt.

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 3, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Sadly, Putin will likely never pay the price for his own crimes, and the crimes he has ordered, aided, and abetted. Neither Russia nor the world will heal until he's breathing dirt.


Agreed. And as for a trial, Putin didn’t do this alone. It’s the Russian people who Ukraine and the world will need to on day come to terms and forgive. There needs to be a type of denazificafion or national mindset change like in Germany or Japan post-WW2.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. And as for a trial, Putin didn’t do this alone. It’s the Russian people who Ukraine and the world will need to on day come to terms and forgive. There needs to be a type of denazificafion or national mindset change like in Germany or Japan post-WW2.



Right, but it took occupying those countries to force them to face their pasts, and even so, it's incomplete. Russia, on the other hand, has laws on the books forbidding honest discussion of this war. The change in leadership will have to be drastic, because any Putinite will likely enforce those laws.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

Pro-Putin operatives in Germany work to turn Berlin against Ukraine


In Germany some are clamouring for a change in course on Ukraine. Key figures in the campaign have links to the Russian state or far right, a Reuters investigation has found.




www.reuters.com

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## buffnut453 (Jan 3, 2023)

I found this interesting. One of the common complaints about Ukraine is the historically rife corruption. Ironically, Russia's invasion may actually help Zelensky et al overcome the major drivers of that corruption, the Ukrainian oligarchs:









Russia's war drains Ukraine's rich list of power


Ukraine's billionaire oligarchs have lost money and influence because of the war.



www.bbc.com

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## Acheron (Jan 3, 2023)

fubar57 said:


> What about this little wannabe git?
> 
> View attachment 700776
> 
> ...


This came out shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 3, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> I found this interesting. One of the common complaints about Ukraine is the historically rife corruption. Ironically, Russia's invasion may actually help Zelensky et al overcome the major drivers of that corruption, the Ukrainian oligarchs:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was thinking this as well. Russia’s invasion has pushed Ukrainian’s sense of national identity, and pushed Ukraine‘s exposure to how the West does things.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jan 3, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Right, but it took occupying those countries to force them to face their pasts, and even so, it's incomplete. Russia, on the other hand, has laws on the books forbidding honest discussion of this war. The change in leadership will have to be drastic, because any Putinite will likely enforce those laws.



I think it took an unconditional surrender along with culture to make that change. In Germany, I think it was easier because of the culture. Most people in Germany are from a similar culture to the rest of the western world. It was easier to conform to a peaceful change and accept the wrongs and move forward to create a better future. Japan on the other hand did not have a true unconditional surrender. The emperor and govt. were by large allowed to remain as is and functioning. Today you still see a neglect of facing their past regarding the war.

That is why it is important that Ukraine does not simply cave into a peace settlement. Russia must clearly be defeated. Russia must answer for its crimes, just as Germany did in the early post-war period. I’m not sure how much of this will happen though.

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## SaparotRob (Jan 3, 2023)

I think it vital that Russia is defeated while Putin is still in power. If he passes before this war ends, it might encourage imperialists to view him as a martyr. His army must be crushed while Putler is still in charge. This war must be viewed as a defeat for Putin, not some lesser czar. He must be humiliated. Russia's economic woes must be inextricably linked to Vladolph. With that said, no one will be marching into Moscow with troops to kick down the door of the palace and remove the czar and convince Russia, Putin LOST. 
I read of a British plan to execute Hitler but it was canceled because Sir Winston Churchill felt it necessary that Hitler take responsibility for the defeat and dire straights of Dem Deutsche Volk.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

Right, they must forestall any Russian "stab-in-the-back" myth, and demonstrate clearly to the Russian people that Putin's war was lost by main force.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jan 3, 2023)

SaparotRob said:


> I think it vital that Russia is defeated while Putin is still in power. If he passes before this war ends, it might encourage imperialists to view him as a martyr. His army must be crushed while Putler is still in charge. This war must be viewed as a defeat for Putin, not some lesser czar. He must be humiliated. Russia's economic woes must be inextricably linked to Vladolph. With that said, no one will be marching into Moscow with troops to kick down the door of the palace and remove the czar and convince Russia, Putin LOST.
> I read of a British plan to execute Hitler but it was canceled because Sir Winston Churchill felt it necessary that Hitler take responsibility for the defeat and dire straights of Dem Deutsche Volk.



I agree completely. They must be defeated, and he must be deposed. There must also be some form of legit trial and repercussions.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jan 3, 2023)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree completely. They must be defeated, and he must be deposed. There must also be some form of legit trial and repercussions.



Note: I am not thinking that Russia needs to be punished ala Germany and Versailles. We all know how that worked out. It needs to be just, while allowing Russia to reform, giving them the best chance to join the world community and grow in a positive manner. 

Otherwise you are just kicking the can down the road and allowing myths and stabbed in the back feelings to grow. Also destroying them further economically will only further the hardship on the civilian population and hate will grow. See Germany, post WW1. I’m a firm believer that Versailles created the environment for the Nazis to come to power. WW2 was just a continuation of WW1 after a brief sieze fire.

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## GrauGeist (Jan 3, 2023)

Regarding corruption in Ukraine, there has been some real progress toward eliminating it and weeding out the key sources.

Here are some quick sources (yes, I know...wiki) but provides a solid timeline and overview:









Corruption in Ukraine - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org

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## FLYBOYJ (Jan 3, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Regarding corruption in Ukraine, there has been some real progress toward eliminating it and weeding out the key sources.
> 
> Here are some quick sources (yes, I know...wiki) but provides a solid timeline and overview:
> 
> ...


I knew some people who went there prior to 2014 to buy L39s and L39 engine parts, they spoke about the corruption

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## buffnut453 (Jan 3, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Regarding corruption in Ukraine, there has been some real progress toward eliminating it and weeding out the key sources.
> 
> Here are some quick sources (yes, I know...wiki) but provides a solid timeline and overview:
> 
> ...



Somewhere in the bowels of this thread is a post about an annual index of corruption that lists countries from least to most corrupt. From 2014 to 2020, Ukraine made substantial strides, rising higher up that index list. It's still a work-in-progress but it's clear that Ukraine has been moving in the right direction for close to a decade now. 

I get very frustrated with people who say the West shouldn't be helping Ukraine because of the nation's history of corruption. If Zelensky's leadership wasn't addressing corruption, then I'd be more accepting of those sentiments. However, progress has been, and continues to be, made. Unfortunately, it's a slow process. There's no magic wand that Zelensky can wave to instantly fix deep-rooted corruption challenges. 

Withholding aid until Ukraine reaches some externally-defined measure of incorruption will simply leave the door open for Russia to achieve its objectives and dominate ever-larger swaths of Ukraine. It's not like the West doesn't have relationships with other less-than-ideal regimes...indeed, many Western regimes are, themselves, far from ideal.

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> I get very frustrated with people who say the West shouldn't be helping Ukraine because of the nation's history of corruption. If Zelensky's leadership wasn't addressing corruption, then I'd be more accepting of those sentiments. However, progress has been, and continues to be, made. Unfortunately, it's a slow process. There's no magic wand that Zelensky can wave to instantly fix deep-rooted corruption challenges.


Especially when many of those exact same people are corrupt (financially or morally or both) themselves ...

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

Russia says 63 soldiers were killed in a missile attack — Ukraine says 400. Who's telling the truth?


Ukraine's New Year's Eve missile attack on a Russian target in the Donetsk region has led to wildly differing accounts from both sides. How can we know what really happened?




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

Russia plans protracted drone campaign to 'exhaust' Ukraine, says Zelenskyy


Ukraine's president says it must "act and do everything so that the terrorists fail in their aim" as he accuses Russia of planning attacks with Iranian drones.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Jan 3, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> Somewhere in the bowels of this thread is a post about an annual index of corruption that lists countries from least to most corrupt. From 2014 to 2020, Ukraine made substantial strides, rising higher up that index list. It's still a work-in-progress but it's clear that Ukraine has been moving in the right direction for close to a decade now.
> 
> I get very frustrated with people who say the West shouldn't be helping Ukraine because of the nation's history of corruption. If Zelensky's leadership wasn't addressing corruption, then I'd be more accepting of those sentiments. However, progress has been, and continues to be, made. Unfortunately, it's a slow process. There's no magic wand that Zelensky can wave to instantly fix deep-rooted corruption challenges.
> 
> Withholding aid until Ukraine reaches some externally-defined measure of incorruption will simply leave the door open for Russia to achieve its objectives and dominate ever-larger swaths of Ukraine. It's not like the West doesn't have relationships with other less-than-ideal regimes...indeed, many Western regimes are, themselves, far from ideal.


Agreed.

And one of the key issues with Russia invading Ukraine, is due to Ukraine's effort to oust Kremlin puppets and cracking down on corruption in both government and the private sector.

It must be working, since it got the Kremlin's panties in a bunch...

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## Acheron (Jan 3, 2023)

I am not optimistic for the Russia to change into something better in the future, regardless of how the war ends. It would be nice, but it would also have been nice if it had changed to something better since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We ought to prepare for the Russia to remain an enemy for the foreseeable future. Which for me means, supporting Ukraine to the best of our abilities to weaken it and ideally keeping the sanctions up.

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## SaparotRob (Jan 3, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Regarding corruption in Ukraine, there has been some real progress toward eliminating it and weeding out the key sources.
> 
> Here are some quick sources (yes, I know...wiki) but provides a solid timeline and overview:
> 
> ...


That was quite a long (and depressing) article.


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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

Ukrainian army receives Swedish Bandvagn 202 all-terrain vehicles | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year


Ukrainian army receives Swedish Bandvagn 202 all-terrain vehicles




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

The Case for Taking Crimea


Why Ukraine can—and should—liberate the province.




www.foreignaffairs.com

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann Starts Production of RCH 155 Self-propelled Howitzers for Ukraine


On December 7, 2022, the German Ministry of Defense updated its list of military equipment that will be delivered to ...




militaryleak.com

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## GrauGeist (Jan 3, 2023)

SaparotRob said:


> That was quite a long (and depressing) article.


True, but it does show considerable improvement as well as positive results.

Many former Soviet controlled nations suffered from rampant corruption, so the Ukrainian issue is not an isolated case. T seems that the closer to Russia a nation is, the more prolific the corruption.

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)



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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)



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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)



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## Admiral Beez (Jan 3, 2023)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I’m a firm believer that Versailles created the environment for the Nazis to come to power.


Agreed. WW1 wasn’t Germany’s fault alone. While Austria-Hungary was broken up, IIRC it didn’t did to pay reparations. And the Russians, who took the first offensive of the war with their invasion of Germany in Aug 1914 didn’t have to pay a penny. Germany got a beat down, when the Treaty of Versailles should have been an admission that the European system was a mess. And if the Treaty of Versailles had to be punitive, it wasn‘t punitive enough. If this was the goal, better to break up Germany into its pre-1870s states.


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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

Anger and frustration at Russia's military command following Ukrainian missile strike


Russian military correspondents say hundreds could have been killed and accuse Russia's top commanders of not learning from past mistakes.




www.abc.net.au

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## manta22 (Jan 3, 2023)

GTX said:


> Krauss-Maffei Wegmann Starts Production of RCH 155 Self-propelled Howitzers for Ukraine
> 
> 
> On December 7, 2022, the German Ministry of Defense updated its list of military equipment that will be delivered to ...
> ...


RCH?? I thought that was a unit of measure!

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## GTX (Jan 3, 2023)

A Tale of Two Speeches


How Zelensky Speaks to, and Leads, his Nation




mickryan.substack.com

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

Acheron said:


> I am not optimistic for the Russia to change into something better in the future, regardless of how the war ends. It would be nice, but it would also have been nice if it had changed to something better since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We ought to prepare for the Russia to remain an enemy for the foreseeable future. Which for me means, supporting Ukraine to the best of our abilities to weaken it and ideally keeping the sanctions up.



I think we ought to prepare for Putin's fall and the possible disintegration of Russia itself -- even if that is admittedly less-likely than your scenario, its consequences will be dire enough that we'd better have some plans in place. I'd be willing to bet the Chinese are thinking along these lines, too, and given their proximity, are looking to leverage it to advantage if such is possible.

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## manta22 (Jan 3, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I think we ought to prepare for Putin's fall and the possible disintegration of Russia itself -- even if that is admittedly less-likely than your scenario, its consequences will be dire enough that we'd better have some plans in place. I'd be willing to bet the Chinese are thinking along these lines, too, and given their proximity, are looking to leverage it to advantage if such is possible.


Any nation with only a history of ruling by force is not a good candidate for any form of a future successful democratic government.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

manta22 said:


> Any nation with only a history of ruling by force is not a good candidate for any form of a future successful democratic government.



Agreed. I just think that the way in which Putin has concentrated power into his own hands means that if and when he falls, there will be a power-struggle and the outlying statelets and oblasts of Russia will probably want to take advantage of the situation and resume their own disputes, which are currently being (mostly) tamped down.

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## manta22 (Jan 3, 2023)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Agreed. I just think that the way in which Putin has concentrated power into his own hands means that if and when he falls, there will be a power-struggle and the outlying statelets and oblasts of Russia will probably want to take advantage of the situation and resume their own disputes, which are currently being (mostly) tamped down.


Like a pack of wolves fighting over the scraps of his carcass.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 3, 2023)

manta22 said:


> Like a pack of wolves fighting over the scraps of his carcass.



Mazactly. And while the pack fights among itself, the prey scatters.


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## buffnut453 (Jan 3, 2023)

Russia has increased the death toll from the Makiivka strike from 63 to 89....and the hunt for scape goats has already begun:









Makiivka: Russia blames missile attack on troops' phone use
 

Russia now says 89 soldiers were killed in the attack in Makiivka, in the occupied Donetsk region.



www.bbc.com

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## GrauGeist (Jan 3, 2023)

Ok, so...this wasn't a cigarette smoking accident, then?

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## Greg Boeser (Jan 3, 2023)

Probably poor construction techniques.


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## buffnut453 (Jan 3, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Ok, so...this wasn't a cigarette smoking accident, then?



Actually, it probably was that lethal weed. Russia blaming recruits using cell phones is merely maskirovka. 

Sources in-the-know tell me that the recruits were using their phones...but they were all outside on a break...and smoking. The size of the explosion is directly proportional to the number of cigarettes involved. HIMARS had nothing to do with it.

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## Glider (Jan 3, 2023)

It looks as if the Ukraine are continuing on this path with a second strike

_Ukraine's military on Tuesday alleged another devastating attack on Russian troops had taken place.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said around 500 Russian troops were either killed or wounded in a hit near Chulakivka, a town in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, on New Year's Eve._

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 4, 2023)

manta22 said:


> Any nation with only a history of ruling by force is not a good candidate for any form of a future successful democratic government.


Most successful democratic governments started off being ruled by force. That‘s what Magna Carta of 1215 was about, until then England was an absolute monarchy ruled by force, though universal voting outside of those with property were still a way off. The American colonies were ruled by force from Britain, until the locals rose up and founded a democratic (initially for propertied, white males) USA. Russia is five hundred to a thousand years behind the rest of us, but this war might give them hope.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 4, 2023)

Admiral Beez said:


> The American colonies were ruled by force from Britain, until the locals rose up and founded a democratic (initially for propertied, white males) USA.



Really? What about the electoral processes that were well established in Colonial America (e.g. the House of Burgesses in Virginia)? Democratic processes were very present, and well-exercised, in Colonial America. Rebellious Americans (rightly) chafed against rule from London without representation in Parliament. That's a very different thing than being ruled by force.

Russia's problem is that the rest of the Western democracies want it to accelerate the transition from totalitarianism to democracy. That's really, REALLY hard. Unfortunately, people naturally fall back to what's familiar, as we've seen in the decades following the break-up of the USSR. It's going to take a LOT of concerted support from the West to help Russia progress...unfortunately, that support may not be forthcoming and I doubt Russia will achieve it on their own.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 4, 2023)

A colleague posted this article....which I find somewhat disturbing. I did check the date and it's not 1 April:

_*Russia Is Afraid of Western Psychic Attacks
Pseudoscience and mysticism are common among the Moscow elite.*_
_JANUARY 3, 2023 | 3:31 PM. 
By Lauren Wolfe, an award-winning journalist.

There are plenty of reasons these days to wonder if Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies are off their rockers. But a recently leaked memo from the Kremlin reveals that those in charge of the Russian government are farther down the rabbit hole than most of us realized.

The memo, published by the Insider, a Russian news outlet in exile, outlines how the Russian Federal Guard Service (FSO), which protects high-ranking officials such as Putin, would handle the invasion of Ukraine — or any other war — spilling over onto the country's own soil. It focuses on psychological preparedness, ensuring that FSO officers would have the "moral and psychological support" needed to resist what the memo calls a potential "massive ideological attack." But the Russians aren't simply worried about the usual wartime propaganda, like sneaky radio broadcasts or underground newspapers. Instead, the Kremlin is mounting preparations for what it calls the "psychological infection of personnel" by an enemy who would manipulate them through hypnosis—as well as through unknown mystical and psychic powers. The memo warns of "psi-generators" and "hypnotic abilities" used by foreign personnel.

Belief in mystic powers is relatively common in Russia, where roughly 20 percentof people have visited a psychic and more than 60 percent believe in some form of magic. Natalia Antonova, a Washington-based writer and Russia expert who spent seven years reporting from Moscow, said "This issue of hypnosis and telekinesis, whatever it is that they're attempting to do, I think the Russians truly believe it. Most of us are still trying to exist in the real world, and [the Russian leadership] are not. They're not trying anymore."

Such fears may be enforced at the top. It's long been rumored that Russian leaders, including Putin, believe in mysticism, astrology, numerology, and psychics—as well as a conviction that their rule over a greater Russia is predestined. As far back as 1988, the New York Times reported that "[h]oroscopes, folk medicine, psychic healing and all manner of mysticism occupy a prominent place in Soviet society, part faith, part fad, but no joke."

Mysticism merges with more conventional Russian Orthodox beliefs about apocalyptic scenarios and satanic influence. At a September ceremony of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, Putin described how the Western "suppression of freedom itself has taken on the features of a religion: outright Satanism." Then, in October, the Russian government shifted its justification of the war, claiming it had a moral imperative to "carry out the de-Satanization of Ukraine." While the language of satanism is sometimes used purely as exaggerated rhetoric, sometimes it's meant literally. Conservative Russian Orthodox ideas of spiritual warfare, in which the West is depicted as literally demonic, have become incorporated into the Russian state's own vocabulary—and mixed with the country's enthusiasm for psychic pseudoscience.

Not to worry, though. The memo laid out how the FSO plans to avert this kind of psychic assault. Tactics include psychically strengthening officers by telling them stories about the bravery and heroism of their colleagues. Another means of counteracting psychological infection involves giving officers tours of the FSO Hall of Fame and History and visits to Moscow's Cathedral of Our Lady of Kazan—presumably to pray the devil away. There will also be a kind of buddy system: "It is necessary to attach the most politically savvy officers of the FSO to the least stable," the memo reads. Or, as a precaution, it may be necessary to commit psychologically vulnerable officers who suffer "neuropsychiatric instability" to a hospital in these mysteriously perilous times. Concerns about psychology and the morale of officers—critically important in a losing war—have become blended with more esoteric worries such as psychic assaults.

The Soviet state and its successor both experimented with mind control (as did the United States during the Cold War, employing a secretive psychic project of its own). A Russian memo declassified in 2019 laid out how, in the 1980s, scientists investigated extrasensory perception (ESP) and other mystical abilities. And in 2019, a Russian military journal declared that the country's soldiers have psychic powers—and that they had used them before. The soldiers purportedly learned how to read thoughts from telepathic dolphins. But it isn't all just Flipper-imparted mind control. The article's author, an army colonel, wrote that the telepathic soldiers also are able to jam communications signals and crash computers with their thoughts.

In the paranormal arms race of the Cold War, no psychic "weapon" was too weird to consider—as long as whatever scientists were trying didn't sound like it was attached to the occult.

Investigative journalist Annie Jacobsen wrote in a 2017 book: "Soviet nomenclature around ESP was rewritten to sound technical, thereby severing all ties with ESP's occult past." Telepathy? It was renamed "long-distance biological systems transmissions." Psychokinesis? Moving objects just by thinking about them was instead called "non-ionizing, in particular electromagnetic, emissions from humans."

The leaked FSO memo explains that the deputy director of the FSO, Gen. Alexander Komov, is responsible for the ultimate implementation of the secret plan to ward off a psychic attack should it be needed. Komov is part science-minded, part kook. He participated in a conference organized last year by the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences about the possibility of spying on Earth from space. He also apparently leads a group of freelance advisors that includes astrologers, black magicians, and psychics.

According to the leaked memo, among other strategies the Russians believe the enemy may employ include "psycho-corrective games," "computer psi-viruses," and "chemical and biological" psychological influence. Psychocorrection, as best I can tell, is a pseudoscience meant to "correct" the development of young children, often using toys, and may include experimental psychology. Its utility for officials being targeted by foreign psychics is questionable. The Insider notes that the possibility of "computer psi-viruses," whatever those are, are unlikely to affect the Kremlin because officers are forbidden from using cellphones or tablets while on duty.

The initial invasion of Ukraine was backed up with hard power: an army of nearly 200,000 men accompanied by serious artillery, tanks, and air power. Russian pundits boasted of an easy victory. That crumbled in the face of Ukrainian resistance, and a panicky mass mobilization did little to change the course of failure. That may be contributing to the atmosphere of fantasy. "With all of these delusions that have been festering for years," Antonova said, "when they run up against the cold, hard reality that they can't win in Ukraine, they start breaking down mentally."_



Time to put a pair of underpants on my head and shove two pencils up my nostrils....cluck-cluck, jibber-jibber, my old man's a mushroom etc. (see video below for context):

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## Frog (Jan 4, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> A colleague posted this article....which I find somewhat disturbing. I did check the date and it's not 1 April:
> 
> _*Russia Is Afraid of Western Psychic Attacks
> Pseudoscience and mysticism are common among the Moscow elite.*_
> ...




Good news for them is they must have inherited quite a good networks of psychiatric establishments from the soviet era.


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## GTX (Jan 4, 2023)

Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots


Drone advances in Ukraine are accelerating a long-anticipated technology trend that could soon bring the world's first fully autonomous fighting robots to the battlefield.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jan 4, 2023)

Czech Republic to deliver Ukraine with 26 DANA M2 8x8 152mm self-propelled howitzers | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year


Ukraine will receive 26 Dana M2 152mm wheeled self-propelled howitzers from the Czech Republic as well as DN1CZ an ER (Extended Range) 152mm artillery ammunition.




www.armyrecognition.com

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## SaparotRob (Jan 4, 2023)

GTX said:


> Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots
> 
> 
> Drone advances in Ukraine are accelerating a long-anticipated technology trend that could soon bring the world's first fully autonomous fighting robots to the battlefield.
> ...


My takeaway is Russia, the number two arms exporter whose weapons are second to none, has to go to Iran for weapons tech.

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 4, 2023)

GTX said:


> Czech Republic to deliver Ukraine with 26 DANA M2 8x8 152mm self-propelled howitzers | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> Ukraine will receive 26 Dana M2 152mm wheeled self-propelled howitzers from the Czech Republic as well as DN1CZ an ER (Extended Range) 152mm artillery ammunition.
> ...


I sense it’s shells and replacement barrels for existing artillery that Ukraine needs most, rather than additional, though of course still welcome, new guns.

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## Glider (Jan 4, 2023)

This is an interesting snippet. Personally I am undecided on the deployment of these vehicles as they will be vulnerable to any AT weapon. In addition they will be quite large targets and difficult to move in mud. 
That said I do not claim to know much about this kind of ground combat

, 
_Mr Zelensky has also been calling for more military support from Western countries, and French officials said that French president Emmanuel Macron has told Mr Zelensky that Paris would send light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles to help in the war against Russia.

"This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army," the official told reporters, after a call between Mr Macron and Mr Zelensky. The official did not give any details about the volume or timing of the planned shipments._

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jan 4, 2023)

Happy New Year to all, folks!

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Jan 4, 2023)

After the NK slaves workers, the african mercenarios. Looks like the Rodina is joining the west as a melting pot. That, or due to climate change, is a lot sunnier now in Moscow than it used to be:

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## swampyankee (Jan 4, 2023)

This may be redundant (and the article referenced is behind a paywall), but it does show some evidence of poor training and supervision of Russian troops:

For Russian Troops, Cellphone Use Is a Persistent, Lethal Danger

As a summary, some of the Russian troops are using their cellphones _in the field_ and, as a result, providing targeting information to Ukrainian artillery. This has been pervasive since Russian troops were nearly investing Kyiv, where the Russian troops uploaded videos to TikTok (and how many of those videos -- probably stored on TikTok's servers and thousands of other places on the Internet -- are evidence of war crimes). While the Russian Army has banned cellphones, they're still common. The Russian Defense Ministry has said that this cellphone use helped the Ukrainian military to locate Russian troop concentration (there were also Russian pro-war bloggers who said that the actual basis was Russian commanders who did not take sufficiently disperse troops and housed them too close to munitions storage areas and had troop movements insufficiently concealed).

The article also stated that cellphone use is also a problem with Ukrainian troops. 

-------------

One question (not answered in article) is whether the Russians, as part of their attack on Ukrainian infrastructure are targeting the cellular network, or are they keeping it in place because they're using it to coordinate with separatists within Ukraine or actually need the Ukrainian cellular network for communication within the invading forces.

--------------

I teach high school. Getting cellphones from teenagers, and many soldiers in every army are in or barely out of their teens, is quite close to impossible. I wonder if this is a problem in other armies.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 4, 2023)

swampyankee said:


> I wonder if this is a problem in other armies.



Yep...it is very much a problem:









Limiting Gen Z Marines’ phone use hard but necessary, top Marine says


“Now we have to completely undo 18 years of communicating all day long and tell them, ‘That’s bad, that will get you killed.’”




www.marinecorpstimes.com

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## GrauGeist (Jan 4, 2023)

As I understand, early in the war, Russians were also looting Ukrainian cellphones and using those, too.

Back in March, a Russian General was killed because the Ukrainians zeroed in on his unsecured cellphone.


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## Wildcat (Jan 4, 2023)

20 years ago when I was in the Army, we weren't even allowed to take our phones on exercises. Hopefully this is still the case??

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## buffnut453 (Jan 4, 2023)

Back when Pontius was a pilot, outbriefs during exercises included a check to ensure the aircrew flight suits were completely sanitized. No name badges, no unit badges, no wallet, no photos of loved ones, no ticket stubs...just a blank flight suit with rank badges and carrying the military ID card. Nothing else. 

Having gone through that rigmarole more times than I care to remember during the Cold War, I shudder at the OPSEC implications of the current generation of military personnel wanting to take their phone with them on operations. Aside from the obvious opportunity to target the phone's emissions, the device can provide all sorts of opportunities for propaganda and info ops because all of the person's contacts can be accessed and reached via social media and other means. 

Any officer who lets his/her subordinates take their cell phone into a combat zone should be drummed out of the service for incompetence (just my most humble of opinions).

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## GrauGeist (Jan 4, 2023)

That and personal GoPro (or similar) video cameras.

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## Greg Boeser (Jan 4, 2023)

Wildcat said:


> 20 years ago when I was in the Army, we weren't even allowed to take our phones on exercises. Hopefully this is still the case??


But then who would share these awesome videos?


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## Wildcat (Jan 5, 2023)

Greg Boeser said:


> But then who would share these awesome videos?


True


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## Admiral Beez (Jan 5, 2023)

Glider said:


> This is an interesting snippet. Personally I am undecided on the deployment of these vehicles as they will be vulnerable to any AT weapon.


Are you referring to the DANA M2 8x8 152mm self-propelled howitzers? Wouldn‘t your concern of vulnerability to AT weapons be applicable to any of Ukraine’s wheeled SPH? Otherwise, what’s so unique about the DANA?

If your self propelled artillery is within range of AT weapons aren’t you using them wrong?

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 5, 2023)

Wildcat said:


> 20 years ago when I was in the Army, we weren't even allowed to take our phones on exercises. Hopefully this is still the case??


Especially when in enemy territory. Whose cell phone infrastructure did the Russian troops think they were using when they are in Ukraine? There’s a reason Ukraine cell providers haven’t switched off service near/in occupied areas.



Interestingly, Ukraine’s three cell services are owned by Dutch, Turkish and Azerbaijani companies. None are big fans of Russia, though the largest Kyivstar does have a strong Russian shareholder.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 5, 2023)

From ISW:

*The continued construction of Russian units using solely mobilized recruits will not generate combat power commensurate with the number of mobilized personnel deployed.*_ Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin remarked in the wake of the Makiivka strike on January 4 that some of the officers of the targeted regiment were mobilized servicemen.[9] Pushilin's indication that certain Russian units are relying on newly mobilized and poorly trained recruits for leadership roles, as opposed to drawing from the combat-hardened officer cadre, adds further nuance to the poor performance of and high losses within units comprised of mobilized recruits. Mobilized servicemen with minimal training and degraded morale in the role of officers are likely contributing to poor operational security (OPSEC) practices and lack the basic acumen to make sound tactical and operational decisions._






Institute for the Study of War


This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.




www.understandingwar.org





What could go wrong with this scheme? Bear in mind, these are the officers who presumably will be training the rest of the conscripts up to combat standards over the winter. There's a reason militaries use the cadre system to expand forces.

Also from the same update:

_*Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023. *Budanov stated in an interview with ABC News published on January 4 that he expects fighting to be the most intense in March of 2023 and that the Ukrainian military is planning a major push in the spring that will liberate territory "from Crimea to Donbas" and deal "the final defeats to the Russian Federation."[13] Ukrainian officials have previously indicated that Ukrainian forces will attempt to maintain the initiative through a series of ongoing and subsequent counteroffensive operations in the winter of 2023.[14] This reportedly planned major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring of 2023 would not be mutually exclusive with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations continuing this winter, as Ukrainian forces could use ongoing and subsequent counteroffensive operations this winter to set conditions for a larger counteroffensive operation in the spring. ISW has not observed any indicators that Ukrainian forces intend to halt counteroffensive operations this winter in order to conduct a major counteroffensive this spring. Budanov stated that there would be further strikes "deeper and deeper" inside Russia but declined to comment on Ukraine's involvement in previous strikes on Russian rear areas in Russia.[15]_

I have no doubt there will be both a winter and spring offensive, but note the vagueness of his statement. I think this is an effort to steer the Russians into a bad position by forcing them to wonder where the blow will fall, similar to how a Kherson offensive was bruited in Aug before the blow fell in Kharkiv a few hundred miles to the north. He's trying to get inside the Russian head to plant worries.

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## buffnut453 (Jan 5, 2023)

Now here's an interesting development...if it actually happens. 









Putin orders 36-hour holiday cease-fire in Ukraine - WTOP News


Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered Moscow’s armed forces to hold a 36-hour cease-fire in Ukraine this weekend for the Russian Orthodox Christmas holiday.




wtop.com

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## Denniss (Jan 5, 2023)

No one actually believes this propaganda posted by Putler, inspired by his close clerical freiny Kyril. Both don't care about Ukrainians so Ukrainians won't care about this.

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## tomo pauk (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Then there's the training factor (crews and mechanics) that would keep them off the battlefield for over half a year, at least.



If the proper Western tanks were being delivered from March on, they would've been already racking up the kills by 4 months now.

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## wlewisiii (Jan 5, 2023)

Potentially VERY big news:

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## GrauGeist (Jan 5, 2023)

tomo pauk said:


> If the proper Western tanks were being delivered from March on, they would've been already racking up the kills by 4 months now.


*if* the Western nations knew that Ukraine would be able to resist the Red Army's initial onslaught.

It wasn't until May (ish) that everyone started to see just how inept Russian forces were and by late Spring, early Summer people started to beleive that Ukraine might just be able to win this war.

After Ukraine handed Russia it's ass with their summer offensive, it became clear that providing Ukraine with modern western equipment would have certain survivability.


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## tomo pauk (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> *if* the Western nations knew that Ukraine would be able to resist the Red Army's initial onslaught.



That was not a requirement by any Western nation other than Germany under the spineless Stolz. 
Remember the rage of Polish minister of exterior after he spoken with German counterparts. In front of the press, he stated that he asked a rhetorical queation: "Ist das ein witz??" - "Is this a joke??" wrt. German attitude towards helping the victim.



GrauGeist said:


> After Ukraine handed Russia it's ass with their summer offensive, it became clear that providing Ukraine with modern western equipment would have certain survivability.



If that was the only requirement, Ukrainian tankers would've been roaming in their M1s, Leo 2s or Leclercs by now. Apparently, not the case.

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## GrauGeist (Jan 5, 2023)

The key factor to helping Ukraine with their success was keeping them seamlessly supplied with equipment they were familiar with.

The M1 Abrams requires over six months training for the crew. Noy sure about the mechanic training course, but still would require essential manpower removed from the front to attend.
Then there's the issue of parts supply, ammunition supply as well as getting the tanks out of storage, tested, inventoried, transported to a shipping point, shipped, delivered, moved from the port to a depot for prep, transported to Ukraine for handover and from there deployed.
The above isn't going to happen overnight.

The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right, unleash the new equipment with well trained crews in an unannounced offensive.

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Glider said:


> This is an interesting snippet. Personally I am undecided on the deployment of these vehicles as they will be vulnerable to any AT weapon. In addition they will be quite large targets and difficult to move in mud.
> That said I do not claim to know much about this kind of ground combat
> 
> ,
> ...

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Russia deploys supersonic Zircon missile as Western allies move to deliver more armoured vehicles to Ukraine


Western allies move toward supplying more armoured battle vehicles to Ukraine, but not the heavier tanks it has requested to fight Russia since the invasion back in February last year.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

UK donates Ukraine 1,000 VALLON metal detectors and 100 bomb de-arming kits | Defense News December 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year


British Ministry of Defense (DoD) announced the donation to Ukraine of more than 1,000 VALLON metal detectors and 100 bomb de-arming kits to Ukraine




www.armyrecognition.com

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Former Russian official returns piece of shrapnel to Emmanuel Macron after being injured in shelling in Ukraine


Dmitry Rogozin, an outspoken former deputy prime minister, was injured last month by shelling in Donetsk, a Russian-held city in eastern Ukraine.




 www.abc.net.au

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## tomo pauk (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> The M1 Abrams requires over six months training for the crew. Noy sure about the mechanic training course, but still would require essential manpower removed from the front to attend.
> Then there's the issue of parts supply, ammunition supply as well as getting the tanks out of storage, tested, inventoried, transported to a shipping point, shipped, delivered, moved from the port to a depot for prep, transported to Ukraine for handover and from there deployed.
> The above isn't going to happen overnight.



Dave - war is now almost 11 months old.



GrauGeist said:


> The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right, unleash the new equipment with well trained crews in an unannounced offensive.



Western tanks are far better than the ex-Soviet tanks. Especially wrt. crew survivability and 1st hit %.

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-08-31/how-russian-corruption-is-foiling-putins-army-in-ukraine


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## GrauGeist (Jan 5, 2023)

Yes, Tomo, I know the war's length - but at what point did the tide of war shift in Ukraine's favor?

If we look back to WWII, the early days saw the U.S. trying to design a long range bomber option to get at Germany in the event that Britain fell.

Many had doubts that Ukraine was going to be able to hold off Russia.

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Ukraine rejects Vladimir Putin's call for Orthodox Christmas truce


Ukraine spurns an offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin for a 36-hour ceasefire over Orthodox Christmas, saying there would be no truce until Russia withdraws its invading forces from occupied land.




www.abc.net.au

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## tomo pauk (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Yes, Tomo, I know the war's length - but at what point did the tide of war shift in Ukraine's favor?



IMO, that has no bearing on when the Ukrainian takers should've went to West to start training on their new gear.
If Ukraine falls in 3 weeks or 3 months - okay, tankers are free to go.
If Ukraine still stands by the time the training is over and tanks are ready - excellent, ship the lot to Ukraine.



GrauGeist said:


> If we look back to WWII, the early days saw the U.S. trying to design a long range bomber option to get at Germany in the event that Britain fell.



Rest of Europe in still the NATO land, in case Ukraine falls. Not the case if UK falls back in ww2, and USA has means to reach Russia anyway.
American help reached UK much earlier than USA had a transcontinental bomber.


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## Admiral Beez (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right,


Agreed. To that end, I’d expect the West and its preferred arms dealers are scouring Africa and the Middle East for every T-72 they can get, for a quick refurb and deployment to Ukraine.

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## Glider (Jan 5, 2023)

I think the nettle that our dear leaders are loath to grasp is the one that is staring at them in the face.

I doubt that Ukraine will fall. They are now very experienced, and compared to the Russian forces well equipped, determined, experienced and successful. 

The west have given them the resources to not be defeated. The problem is that they are not giving the Ukraine the resources needed to win, to conquer the Russian invaders. 

For that you different equipment. Ukraine will not win unless they have better armour than Russia, the wheat fields of Ukraine are armour country. T72 vs T72 is not an advantage. They need the longer ranged missile that can really hurt the Russian infrastructure. The current ones excellent as they are, can only do so much. 
Ukraine need a lot of air support which they don't currently have. F16's are by western standards almost obsolete, most countries are replacing them, but they are a hell of a lot better than the normal Russian Fighters. I would lay good money betting that there are hundreds in the desert waiting to be recycled.

The war has been going on for 11 months and that should have been plenty of time to get a cadre of Ukraine personnel trained on the F16, M1, Leopard II, whatever. If it hasn't and it does look as if it has, then the West have a considerable responsibility for the war becoming a long draw out conflict. It's almost as if politicians are afraid of success, a stalemate is almost a preferred option.

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## Glider (Jan 5, 2023)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are you referring to the DANA M2 8x8 152mm self-propelled howitzers? Wouldn‘t your concern of vulnerability to AT weapons be applicable to any of Ukraine’s wheeled SPH? Otherwise, what’s so unique about the DANA?
> 
> If your self propelled artillery is within range of AT weapons aren’t you using them wrong?


No I am thinking about the French AMX 10 RC basically a big armoured car. AMX-10 RC - Wikipedia

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## wlewisiii (Jan 5, 2023)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 5, 2023)

Admiral Beez said:


> Agreed. To that end, I’d expect the West and its preferred arms dealers are scouring Africa and the Middle East for every T-72 they can get, for a quick refurb and deployment to Ukraine.



A good idea for the short-term, but this war will go on a while, sad to say, and we'd ought to be looking more at the long-term ... which means planting seeds now for a ripe harvest. We need to plan for that now.

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## GrauGeist (Jan 5, 2023)

Ukraine certainly has something up their sleeve and as has been mentioned before, they keep their cards close to their chest.

The Bradley is a huge step up and coincidently, was designed to operate alongside the Abrams in a compoaite battle group.

So we'll have to wait and see what's going on.


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## MiTasol (Jan 5, 2023)

buffnut453 said:


> Back when Pontius was a pilot, outbriefs during exercises included a check to ensure the aircrew flight suits were completely sanitized. No name badges, no unit badges, no wallet, no photos of loved ones, no ticket stubs...just a blank flight suit with rank badges and carrying the military ID card. Nothing else.
> 
> Having gone through that rigmarole more times than I care to remember during the Cold War, I shudder at the OPSEC implications of the current generation of military personnel wanting to take their phone with them on operations. Aside from the obvious opportunity to target the phone's emissions, the device can provide all sorts of opportunities for propaganda and info ops because all of the person's contacts can be accessed and reached via social media and other means.
> 
> Any officer who lets his/her subordinates take their cell phone into a combat zone should be drummed out of the service for incompetence (just my most humble of opinions).



Any Russian officer who does this should be congratulated, preferably posthumously.

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## MiTasol (Jan 5, 2023)

GTX said:


> Former Russian official returns piece of shrapnel to Emmanuel Macron after being injured in shelling in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Dmitry Rogozin, an outspoken former deputy prime minister, was injured last month by shelling in Donetsk, a Russian-held city in eastern Ukraine.
> ...



It is a pity that that shrapnel did not travel that few extra mm to make him a paraplegic - then he would know how many Ukrainians feel as a result of Putins attack

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## Frog (Jan 5, 2023)

MiTasol said:


> It is a pity that that shrapnel did not travel that few extra mm to make him a paraplegic - then he would know how many Ukrainians feel as a result of Putins attack



He has not understood he was making a good advertisement for the Caesar.
Maybe the next time will be the good one.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 5, 2023)

Frog said:


> He has not understood he was making a good advertisement for the Caesar.
> Maybe the next time will be the good one.



There are none so blind as them who will not see.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 5, 2023)

GrauGeist said:


> Ukraine certainly has something up their sleeve and as has been mentioned before, they keep their cards close to their chest.
> 
> The Bradley is a huge step up and coincidently, was designed to operate alongside the Abrams in a compoaite battle group.
> 
> So we'll have to wait and see what's going on.



I hope you're right, brotha. A left hook would be nice.

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## Admiral Beez (Jan 5, 2023)

Bradleys and Marders! Nice. I hope they’re ATGW armed.












I was disappointed that Canada’s LAV3 donation to Ukraine was of the unarmed field ambulance variant. Hopefully these new IFVs are fully armed.

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Ukraine to get 50 Bradley fighting vehicles – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies


Parts made by more than a dozen US and Western companies were found inside a single Iranian drone downed in Ukraine last fall, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment obtained exclusively by CNN.




amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## fubar57 (Jan 5, 2023)

Zelenskyy accuses Putin of proposing ceasefire 'as a cover' to bring in more ammunition, troops



https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-ceasefire-orthodox-christmas-1.6704833

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## Greg Boeser (Jan 5, 2023)

GTX said:


> CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies
> 
> 
> Parts made by more than a dozen US and Western companies were found inside a single Iranian drone downed in Ukraine last fall, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment obtained exclusively by CNN.
> ...


Not a surprise. In Iraq we were finding all sorts of stuff on the embargoed list, and the lot numbers proved they were not produced before the sanctions. 
Business is business, and rogue states rarely play by the rules.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Jan 5, 2023)

Admiral Beez said:


> I was disappointed that Canada’s LAV3 donation to Ukraine was of the unarmed field ambulance variant. Hopefully these new IFVs are fully armed.



Lord knows the Ukrainians have plenty of need for ambulances. It may not catch headlines, but it's both needed, and no doubt appreciated.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Jan 5, 2023)

Intercepted call from occupier to his wife: "Therell be no Ukrainians soon"


Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has published an intercepted phone call between a Russian occupier and his wife. Source: Press service of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "Babe, these are just Khokhols [a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians - ed.




www.yahoo.com

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## GrauGeist (Jan 5, 2023)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted call from occupier to his wife: "Therell be no Ukrainians soon"
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has published an intercepted phone call between a Russian occupier and his wife. Source: Press service of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "Babe, these are just Khokhols [a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians - ed.
> ...


Call it karma, call it divine retribution, but I suspect that asshole won't be long for this world.

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## GTX (Jan 5, 2023)

Satellite images reveal Russian assault on besieged Ukrainian city


Images show the extent of the damage to the land, homes and infrastructure in Bakhmut, where the residents who remain live with no heat or electricity.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Friday at 12:09 AM)

Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next.


The U.S. so far has declined to send the Abrams tank. But the latest move could pave the way for sending more armor to Kyiv.




www.politico.com

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## Admiral Beez (Friday at 6:31 AM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted call from occupier to his wife: "Therell be no Ukrainians soon"
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has published an intercepted phone call between a Russian occupier and his wife. Source: Press service of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "Babe, these are just Khokhols [a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians - ed.
> ...


This certainly lines up with the narrative that Russians are murdering, unthinking, orc-like monsters. But we should remember that Ukraine’s government, military and intelligence services also have a propaganda or persuading function - they need to keep and expedite the weapons supply. All I ask is that we always be questioning why either side is telling us something.

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## GTX (Friday at 1:05 PM)

Vladimir Putin's ceasefire in Ukraine begins, Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling military positions


The Russian-declared truce in the nearly 11-month war is due to continue until midnight on Saturday, Moscow time, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses the Kremlin of planning the pause "to continue the war with renewed vigour".




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Friday at 1:22 PM)

Russian troops 'told they're fighting Poland' - YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com › watch

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## GTX (Friday at 2:16 PM)

I wouldn't say Gepard was little known...though I do live an breath this stuff:









The little-known weapon knocking down Iranian drones over Kyiv


Ukrainian forces were able to shoot down more than 80 aerial vehicles this week.




www.politico.com

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## GTX (Friday at 2:48 PM)



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## GTX (Friday at 2:48 PM)



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## GTX (Friday at 2:50 PM)



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## Glider (Friday at 2:55 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted call from occupier to his wife: "Therell be no Ukrainians soon"
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has published an intercepted phone call between a Russian occupier and his wife. Source: Press service of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "Babe, these are just Khokhols [a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians - ed.
> ...


What I find interesting about this, is that his wife clearly does care about the people in Ukraine.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Friday at 3:01 PM)

_
NEAR KREMINNA, Ukraine, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire at the front line in Ukraine on Friday, even after Moscow said it had ordered its troops to stop shooting for a unilateral truce that was firmly rejected by Kyiv.

President Vladimir Putin ordered the 36-hour ceasefire from midday on Friday to observe Russian Orthodox Christmas. Ukraine has said it has no intention to stop fighting, rejecting the purported truce as a stunt by Moscow to buy time to reinforce troops that have taken heavy losses this week.


"What ceasefire? Can you hear?" said a Ukrainian soldier using the nom de guerre Vyshnya, as an explosion rang out in the distance at the front line near Kreminna in eastern Ukraine. "What do they want to achieve if they keep on shooting? We know, we have learnt not to trust them."

Russia's defence ministry said its troops began observing the ceasefire from noon Moscow time (0900 GMT) "along the entire line of contact", but said Ukraine had kept up shelling populated areas and military positions.

[...]

One witness in the Russian-occupied regional capital Donetsk, close to the front, also described outgoing artillery fired from pro-Russian positions on the city's outskirts after the truce was meant to take effect.

The Ukrainian governor of the frontline eastern Luhansk province, Serhiy Haidai, said that in the first three hours of the purported ceasefire the Russians had shelled Ukrainian positions 14 times and stormed one settlement three times.
_









'What ceasefire?': shells fly at Ukraine front despite Putin's truce


Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire at the front line in Ukraine on Friday, even after Moscow said it had ordered its troops to stop shooting for a unilateral truce that was firmly rejected by Kyiv.




www.reuters.com





My feelings: if the Russians want to stop shooting, great. I don't blame the Ukrainians for still fighting to evict the invaders.

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## MiTasol (Friday at 4:50 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Intercepted call from occupier to his wife: "Therell be no Ukrainians soon"
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has published an intercepted phone call between a Russian occupier and his wife. Source: Press service of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Quote: "Babe, these are just Khokhols [a derogatory Russian term for Ukrainians - ed.
> ...



With luck he was one of the ones severely injured on the new years day HIMARS attack and will go back to his family and bitch for the rest of his life about how karma caught up with him

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## GrauGeist (Friday at 5:04 PM)

MiTasol said:


> With luck he was one of the ones severely injured on the new years day HIMARS attack and will go back to his family and bitch for the rest of his life about how karma caught up with him


Better still, Ukraine finds out who he is and awards him a special commendation for his helpful collaboration.

Nature street justice will take it's course.

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## Admiral Beez (Friday at 5:32 PM)

Glider said:


> What I find interesting about this, is that his wife clearly does care about the people in Ukraine.


The spouses of the Wehrmacht and Schutzstaffel, including Einsatzgruppen didn't care what they're husbands were doing.

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## Glider (Friday at 6:36 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> The spouses of the Wehrmacht and Schutzstaffel, including Einsatzgruppen didn't care what they're husbands were doing.


True but this one certainly does

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Friday at 6:38 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> The spouses of the Wehrmacht and Schutzstaffel, including Einsatzgruppen didn't care what they're husbands were doing.



Most just wanted their husbands to come home alive. They were not rejoicing and enjoying the slaughter going on by anyone.


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## GrauGeist (Friday at 6:53 PM)

Assuming they discussed what they did with their spouses or family.

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## SaparotRob (Friday at 7:08 PM)

GTX said:


> I wouldn't say Gepard was little known...though I do live an breath this stuff:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I too love tracked mechanical things that spit out a butt ton of crap every second.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Friday at 7:27 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> I too love tracked mechanical things that spit out a butt ton of crap every second.



There's a political joke in here somewhere, but I ain't touching the third rail.

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## GTX (Friday at 8:43 PM)

From Washington, Berlin and Paris, a sudden influx of armor bound for Ukraine - Breaking Defense


"This is a sign the three governments are managing escalation using a ‘boil the frog’ kind of strategy by gradually increasing support to Ukraine not through grand gestures but by adding different pieces of equipment, in intervals," said analyst Ed Arnold.




breakingdefense-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## GTX (Friday at 9:55 PM)

Russia disguising fuel trucks as piles of wood to avoid Ukrainian bombs


The camouflaging attempt is to counter major losses inflicted by Ukraine as Kremlin struggles to secure fuel supply lines while under attack




www.telegraph.co.uk

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## GTX (Friday at 9:57 PM)

Iranian drone maker sanctioned as Blinken calls Iran 'Russia's top military backer'


The US hits six executives and board members of an Iranian drone manufacturer with sanctions after the firm allegedly supplied Moscow with drones that Russian forces have been using to attack Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Thumpalumpacus (Friday at 10:31 PM)

GTX said:


> From Washington, Berlin and Paris, a sudden influx of armor bound for Ukraine - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> "This is a sign the three governments are managing escalation using a ‘boil the frog’ kind of strategy by gradually increasing support to Ukraine not through grand gestures but by adding different pieces of equipment, in intervals," said analyst Ed Arnold.
> ...



Bradleys are good kit, and it seems to me telegraphing the Abrams not far behind. Again, warming the frog.

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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 7:31 AM)

Glider said:


> No I am thinking about the French AMX 10 RC basically a big armoured car. AMX-10 RC - Wikipedia


It is thin skinned, but it looks lethal for engaging infantry and their IFVs. Look at that gun, this thing will eat BTRs for breakfast, especially the older ones with tiny guns that Russia is retrieving from reserve stocks.


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## Denniss (Saturday at 8:51 AM)

Has anyone heard anything about foreign Gepard operators (Brazil/Romania,Jordan?) willing to sell (or exchange) or donate their Gepards to Ukraine?
Does anyone know if Germany and the Netherlands have still some of theirs in storage/mothballed that can be reactivated?
Regarding the swiss-made ammo for the Gepard we (our government) should either ignore the swiss export block and donate them anyway or oficially donate them to Romania (and train was guided to wrong track leading into Ukraine). Or romania could hold some "exhaustive military maneuvers" expending all their Gepard ammo and asking for more.

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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 9:45 AM)

Has Russia deployed their Gepard equivalent the 2K22 Tunguska to Ukraine? 






Per Wikipedia, Ukraine also operates this system. We don’t hear anything about it.









2K22 Tunguska - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 9:52 AM)

Now we just need Macron, in typical French “go our own way” manner to get a jump on Biden and his MBT plans and announce he’s sending fifty LeClercs to Ukraine by end of January.









War in Ukraine: 'A strong gesture could be for France to deliver 50 Leclerc tanks'


France should overcome its reluctance to deliver arms to Ukraine, for military as well as diplomatic and industrial reasons, argues Pierre Haroche, a researcher who specializes in European security.




www.lemonde.fr





Unlike the manual loading Lepard and Abrams, the LeClerc‘s auto loader and three man crew will require the same manpower as the T-72s Ukraine operates now. Here‘s a winter-camo Leclerc at exercises in Lithuania.






Success in Ukraine could also help France and Nexter Systems market and sell the LeClerc to countries looking to replace their now demonstrably rubbish Russian tanks.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Saturday at 10:04 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Has Russia deployed their Gepard equivalent the 2K22 Tunguska to Ukraine?



Have you checked the Ukrainian farmers' forums?

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## GrauGeist (Saturday at 11:23 AM)

To be honest, forget the M1, Leopard and the rest.

I want to see what Ukraine can do with the K-2.

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## RogerdeLluria (Saturday at 11:26 AM)

This is reportedly (take with a grain of salt but its plausible) from a Russian telegram account (translated):

_Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, #Russian President Vladimir #Putin held a meeting via video call with representatives of the leadership of the security and military blocs. There were several topics on the agenda. Mobilization was the central one.

Representatives of the leadership of the military bloc reported that they were ready to carry out a full range of mobilization measures within the framework of both general and partial mobilization.

After listening to the report of the representative of the Defense Ministry, #Putin confirmed his intention to call up about two million people during 2023 and asked the speaker whether everything was ready to complete the task in full and on time.

The representative of the Defense Ministry replied in the affirmative. Then, they turned to the issue of supplying the mobilized with the "essentials". #Putin was assured that the newly called-up would be provided with the "necessary minimum" of equipment and weapons.

Then, they moved on to discussing the topic of closing borders in anticipation of the next stage of mobilization. #FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov reported on full readiness for "closing the borders" in any format.

He also drew the President's attention to the fact that today, more than eight million citizens are already banned from leaving #Russia. Bortnikov presented an analytical note stating that at least half (about four million people) are...

men of military age who served in the army and navy and have military specialties. The director of the #FSB noted a large number of "alimony debtors" among those who were forbidden to travel abroad and suggested that this category of citizens be called upon to mobilize.

They say that if the next stage of mobilization, as planned, at least at first, will take place without an official announcement and will be of a hidden nature, then panic can be avoided, and the borders can remain open.

In addition, the problem will be solved for abandoned wives and children who are waiting for alimony from ex-spouses and fathers. All in all, the President reacted positively to this proposal and ordered to work it out with representatives of the Ministry of Defense.

The issue of introducing martial law was discussed this time superficially. The President only confirmed the plans and asked about preparations for the implementation of such a decision.

Having received an answer that preparations were underway and everything would be ready by the second decade of February, he nodded with satisfaction.

After the meeting, the President continued talking with the Security Council Secretary, Patrushev.

They spoke for about half an hour._

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## GTX (Saturday at 12:45 PM)

Sea Sparrow RIM-7 Surface-To-Air Missiles Are Headed To Ukraine


The RIM-7 Sea Sparrow will be paired with Soviet-era Buk launchers and radar systems in a bizarre but potentially much needed mash-up.




www.thedrive.com

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## GTX (Saturday at 12:48 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> To be honest, forget the M1, Leopard and the rest.
> 
> I want to see what Ukraine can do with the K-2.
> 
> View attachment 701486


Or just K1s:






or K1A1s:

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Saturday at 1:28 PM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> _Then, they turned to the issue of supplying the mobilized with the "essentials". #Putin was assured that the newly called-up would be *provided* *with the* "necessary *minimum" of equipment and weapons.*_


The bold part surely is true.

TOW engaging soviet tanks, like those that could be fired from Bradleys:



And a hellish vid from Bakhmut:

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## GTX (Saturday at 1:28 PM)

And now we see what happens. I am not confident though...

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## Glider (Saturday at 1:46 PM)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> The bold part surely is true.
> 
> TOW engaging soviet tanks, like those that could be fired from Bradleys:
> 
> ...



What I find interesting is the tactics used by the Helicopter pilots of both sides. Back in the day the RAF and RN emphasised that the best way to use helicopters in action was basically to stay as far away as practical from the enemy, pop up above the tree line or horizon, fire and get down again. 
Certainly this was used in the Falklands and the Argentine forces were forced to use Artillery and air burst shells at the likely area's the helicopters were coming from. In this conflict both sides seem to barrel in and rely on their countermeasures to protect them. Helicopters are quite large, fairly slow, and generally vulnerable targets and it does seem a risky approach.

Am I completely wrong or have things changed that much


----------



## wlewisiii (Saturday at 1:56 PM)



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## SaparotRob (Saturday at 2:20 PM)

Seeing as how another oligarch bit the dust, I’m wondering if this is how Vladolph plans on financing his war. The oligarchs own the wealth and Putler owns the oligarchs. Is this a way for Vlademoort to raise cash? I don’t know how things don’t work in Russia.

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:27 PM)

Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts, Kyiv military intelligence says


Ukrainian officials predict the new Russian draft effort will begin after January 15.




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:32 PM)

Fighting continues in Ukraine despite Russian truce claims


Ukraine had labeled the Russian-proposed truce a ‘cynical trap.’




www.politico.eu

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:33 PM)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-01-06/dod-holds-firm-as-mccarthy-plays-politics-with-ukraine-aid

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:33 PM)

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/ukraine-aid-republicans-biden/index.html

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:55 PM)

Why Putin’s raw recruits are no match for Ukraine’s western tech


At about midnight on New Year’s Eve a barrage of American-built Himars missiles smashed into a building packed with Russian conscripts in Makiivka, just outsid




www.thetimes.co.uk

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## GTX (Saturday at 2:57 PM)

Ukraine hails US military aid as cease-fire said to falter


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's president praised the United States for including tank-killing armored vehicles in its latest multibillion-dollar package of military aid , saying they are “exactly what is needed” for Ukrainian troops locked in combat against Russian forces, even as both sides...




apnews.com

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## Johnny Curedents (Saturday at 4:09 PM)

I am very happy with events on the ground in Ukraine. I think the whole thing should give NATO and neocons in Washington a lot to think about. It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting. Donbass will soon be totally liberated and the entire world will soon be converted to a multipolar arrangement rather than the so called "rule based" arrangement so dear to certain American politicians and almost all the unelected politicians directing the EU. In my view, these are good outcomes.

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## buffnut453 (Saturday at 4:41 PM)

So an operation that was supposed to last a few days but is now into its 11th month is "going quite well"? 

An operation is "going quite well" when huge swaths of terrain taken by Russia after months of fighting are lost in a matter of a few weeks?

We clearly have a different understanding of what "going quite well" means.

I also shudder at the idea that any reasonable person thinks it's ok, and indeed is "very happy" that a sovereign nation has been invaded.

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Saturday at 5:05 PM)

buffnut453 said:


> So an operation that was supposed to last a few days but is now into its 11th month is "going quite well"?
> 
> An operation is "going quite well" when huge swaths of terrain taken by Russia after months of fighting are lost in a matter of a few weeks?
> 
> ...


Don't feed the troll.

Yisus, how many are here? If there are enough, maybe Musk will make an offer 😂

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## Thumpalumpacus (Saturday at 5:14 PM)

Johnny Curedents said:


> It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting.



Nyet.

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## GrauGeist (Saturday at 5:17 PM)

Still trying to figure out what part of Putin's war is going "quite well".

If having your Army cut down like grass, having large numbers of your tanks destroyed or captured, having your fleet's flagship sunk and murdering thousands of civilians is the goal, then is certainly going well.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Saturday at 5:19 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Still trying to figure out what part of Putin's war is going "quite well".



The capture of the latest, top-secret washing machines?

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## FLYBOYJ (Saturday at 5:38 PM)

Johnny Curedents said:


> I am very happy with events on the ground in Ukraine. I think the whole thing should give NATO and* neocons *in Washington a lot to think about. It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting. Donbass will soon be totally liberated and the entire world will soon be converted to a multipolar arrangement rather than the so called "rule based" arrangement so dear to certain American politicians and almost all the unelected politicians directing the EU. In my view, these are good outcomes.


I suggest you re-read this.






Terms and rules


You must agree to these terms and rules before using the site.



ww2aircraft.net


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## Glider (Saturday at 5:52 PM)

Johnny Curedents said:


> I am very happy with events on the ground in Ukraine. I think the whole thing should give NATO and neocons in Washington a lot to think about. It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting. Donbass will soon be totally liberated and the entire world will soon be converted to a multipolar arrangement rather than the so called "rule based" arrangement so dear to certain American politicians and almost all the unelected politicians directing the EU. In my view, these are good outcomes.


Can I ask. If what is happening _is going quite well_, what is your definition of going really really badly?

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## GTX (Saturday at 6:07 PM)

Russia’s unusual laser devices fall into Ukrainian hands – Defence Blog







defence-blog.com

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## GTX (Saturday at 7:32 PM)

For the first time US to supply Ukraine with 18 M109 Paladin 155mm howitzers | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year







www-armyrecognition-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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## GTX (Saturday at 7:33 PM)



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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 7:56 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> To be honest, forget the M1, Leopard and the rest. I want to see what Ukraine can do with the K-2.


I do wonder if a sleight of hand is happening here, with Poland’s newly arrived K-2s somehow ending up in Ukraine.

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## SaparotRob (Saturday at 8:48 PM)

I'm still naively hoping for F-16s to appear as surprisingly as Ukraine's next offensive will be.

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## SaparotRob (Saturday at 9:02 PM)

C'mon. We're using them as target drones.

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## SaparotRob (Saturday at 9:07 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Still trying to figure out what part of Putin's war is going "quite well".
> 
> If having your Army cut down like grass, having large numbers of your tanks destroyed or captured, having your fleet's flagship sunk and murdering thousands of civilians is the goal, then is certainly going well.


Vlademoort is reducing prison overcrowding in Russia.

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## GrauGeist (Saturday at 9:18 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> I do wonder if a sleight of hand is happening here, with Poland’s newly arrived K-2s somehow ending up in Ukraine.


I did find that announcement interesting, especially after the US pledged M1s to replace their Soviet armor that was sent to Ukraine.


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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 9:55 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> I did find that announcement interesting, especially after the US pledged M1s to replace their Soviet armor that was sent to Ukraine.


Agreed. I was also eyeing the US Army Abrams and Bradleys offloading in Poland last month.





I wonder if some of these vehicles are destined for Ukraine, especially the Bradleys. Biden has promised fifty Bradleys and there are now US Army Bradleys in Poland. Sounds like a good opportunity.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Saturday at 10:00 PM)

I think Abrams will follow Bradleys in short order.

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## GrauGeist (Saturday at 10:09 PM)

Aparently, Poland purchased 180 K-2 tanks last summer and just recieved 10 of them the first week of December.

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## Admiral Beez (Saturday at 10:22 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Aparently, Poland purchased 180 K-2 tanks last summer and just recieved 10 of them the first week of December.


A small number. But nothing a series of C-5 runs from Korea to Poland couldn’t increase easily enough while a bulk shipment is coming via sea freight.

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## GrauGeist (Saturday at 11:24 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> A small number. But nothing a series of C-5 runs from Korea to Poland couldn’t increase easily enough while a bulk shipment is coming via sea freight.
> 
> View attachment 701566
> 
> ...


Have you noticed the length of time between the official media notice of purchase and initial delivery?

About six months.

Hmmm.....


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## buffnut453 (Saturday at 11:34 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Still trying to figure out what part of Putin's war is going "quite well".
> 
> If having your Army cut down like grass, having large numbers of your tanks destroyed or captured, having your fleet's flagship sunk and murdering thousands of civilians is the goal, then is certainly going well.



Agreed. I guess we'll see if 
J
 Johnny Curedents
deigns to reply.

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## GTX (Sunday at 12:01 AM)

Russians demand return of Liaoning – the Soviet aircraft carrier that China bought from Ukraine


A Russian politician has proposed to buy back from China the Soviet aircraft carrier Liaoning sold to it by Ukraine




world-defence.com

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## GTX (Sunday at 12:04 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> I do wonder if a sleight of hand is happening here, with Poland’s newly arrived K-2s somehow ending up in Ukraine.


I highly doubt it. As the following touches upon, this is more about arming Poland itself.

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## GTX (Sunday at 12:10 AM)

Between battles, Ukraine's soldiers have a place to recover


A rehabilitation centre is giving Ukrainian soldiers a break from the front line while treating their mental and physical health.




www.abc.net.au

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## GrauGeist (Sunday at 12:43 AM)

GTX said:


> Russians demand return of Liaoning – the Soviet aircraft carrier that China bought from Ukraine
> 
> 
> A Russian politician has proposed to buy back from China the Soviet aircraft carrier Liaoning sold to it by Ukraine
> ...


lmao - yeah, good luck with that.


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## fubar57 (Sunday at 7:14 AM)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6707133

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## Admiral Beez (Sunday at 7:18 AM)

GTX said:


> Russians demand return of Liaoning – the Soviet aircraft carrier that China bought from Ukraine
> 
> 
> A Russian politician has proposed to buy back from China the Soviet aircraft carrier Liaoning sold to it by Ukraine
> ...


That’s a silly article. No where in the article is the headline that Russians “demand” anything supported. A suggestion is not a demand. One lower level apparatchik made a silly and likely drunken request of a colleague.

And you have to love these job titles… you know when there are five instances of “of” in your title that you’re a nobody.

_Sergey Karginov, First Deputy Chairman *of* the Committee *of* the State Duma *of* the Federal Assembly *of* the Russian Federation on Development *of* Far East and Arctic._

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## Admiral Beez (Sunday at 7:22 AM)

GTX said:


> Between battles, Ukraine's soldiers have a place to recover
> 
> 
> A rehabilitation centre is giving Ukrainian soldiers a break from the front line while treating their mental and physical health.
> ...


Um, isn't this report identifying the place just inviting a Russian rocket barrage?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sunday at 8:10 AM)

GTX said:


> Russians demand return of Liaoning – the Soviet aircraft carrier that China bought from Ukraine
> 
> 
> A Russian politician has proposed to buy back from China the Soviet aircraft carrier Liaoning sold to it by Ukraine
> ...



I suppose the dolt hasn't heard of the Montreux Convention.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sunday at 9:20 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> nd you have to love these job titles… you know when there are five instances of “of” in your title that you’re a nobody.
> 
> _Sergey Karginov, First Deputy Chairman *of* the Committee *of* the State Duma *of* the Federal Assembly *of* the Russian Federation on Development *of* Far East and Arctic._



The nameplate on his desk must weigh about seventy pounds.



Admiral Beez said:


> Um, isn't this report identifying the place just inviting a Russian rocket barrage?



"Kharkiv region" is probably too vague for missile-guidance programming, don't you think?

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## SaparotRob (Sunday at 9:54 AM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> I suppose the dolt hasn't heard of the Montreux Convention.


I don't think any Russian bothers with international convention or law.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sunday at 9:57 AM)

SaparotRob said:


> I don't think any Russian bothers with international convention or law.



Good luck ignoring the Turkish forces at the straits.

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## SaparotRob (Sunday at 9:58 AM)

I don't take the guy seriously.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sunday at 12:30 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> I don't take the guy seriously.



Nor I, hence "dolt".,

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## GTX (Sunday at 12:42 PM)

Russia claims to have killed 600 Ukrainian troops in rocket attack on accommodation


Russia's defence ministry says a strike on buildings in Kramatorsk on Sunday was revenge for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## Glider (Sunday at 12:55 PM)

I do hope that this isn't true. It is politics but I believe relevant to this thread.



Kevin McCarthy 'agreed to cut aid to Ukraine' to secure US speaker role



Kevin McCarthy reportedly agreed to spending caps that would limit future aid to Ukraine as part of the deal with ultraconservatives that enabled him to finally be elected as House speaker on Saturday.

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## RogerdeLluria (Sunday at 1:01 PM)

GTX said:


> Russia claims to have killed 600 Ukrainian troops in rocket attack on accommodation
> 
> 
> Russia's defence ministry says a strike on buildings in Kramatorsk on Sunday was revenge for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
> ...


I would say it falls into Standard Russian claim credibility (they also claim to have destroyed 35 out of the 20 HIMARS Ukraine received)

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## RogerdeLluria (Sunday at 1:10 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The capture of the latest, top-secret washing machines?

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## GrauGeist (Sunday at 1:11 PM)

Damn!

Not the raccoon!!

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## GTX (Sunday at 1:14 PM)

German won't rule out deliveries of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, economy minister says


Germany cannot rule out the delivery of Leopard tanks, heavier fighting vehicles than the Marders, to support Ukrainian militry forces in the future, the country's economy minister told German broadcaster ARD.




www.reuters.com

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## Glider (Sunday at 1:18 PM)

GTX said:


> German won't rule out deliveries of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, economy minister says
> 
> 
> Germany cannot rule out the delivery of Leopard tanks, heavier fighting vehicles than the Marders, to support Ukrainian militry forces in the future, the country's economy minister told German broadcaster ARD.
> ...


The whole world is waiting for someone in authority (and I include British American French leaders) to start ruling something in not ruling something out, any damn fool can do that.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sunday at 1:33 PM)

Johnny Curedents said:


> I am very happy with events on the ground in Ukraine. I think the whole thing should give NATO and neocons in Washington a lot to think about. It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting. Donbass will soon be totally liberated and the entire world will soon be converted to a multipolar arrangement rather than the so called "rule based" arrangement so dear to certain American politicians and almost all the unelected politicians directing the EU. In my view, these are good outcomes.



Да, товарищ!

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## Glider (Sunday at 1:38 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Да, товарищ!


I have absolutely no idea what that means, but I strongly suspect that I agree with it

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Sunday at 1:39 PM)

Glider said:


> I have absolutely no idea what that means, but I strongly suspect that I agree with it



I hope my translator on my phone translated it correctly. If not I might not know what it means either. 

I have not taken Russian since I was in High School.

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## wlewisiii (Sunday at 2:01 PM)

Glider said:


> I do hope that this isn't true. It is politics but I believe relevant to this thread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's very plausible that he would do so given the events of the past week. However, I will point to the US Senate and note that the cuts the Putin Conference want won't get past the Senate and leave the topic alone after that.

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## GrauGeist (Sunday at 2:23 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Да, товарищ!


проповядвай, брат !!

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## hawkeye2an (Sunday at 2:36 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> проповядвай, брат !!

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## MiTasol (Sunday at 3:21 PM)

GTX said:


> Russia’s unusual laser devices fall into Ukrainian hands – Defence Blog
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting. It is supposed to be super secret RUSSIAN kit but the name on it is ENGLISH






There is a strong smell of rodent here


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## SaparotRob (Sunday at 3:32 PM)

GTX said:


> Russia claims to have killed 600 Ukrainian troops in rocket attack on accommodation
> 
> 
> Russia's defence ministry says a strike on buildings in Kramatorsk on Sunday was revenge for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
> ...


What a bunch of low lifes.


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## SaparotRob (Sunday at 3:37 PM)

Glider said:


> I do hope that this isn't true. It is politics but I believe relevant to this thread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I hit reply then started writing a post without thinking first, which would have gotten me banned.

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## Admiral Beez (Sunday at 3:50 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> "Kharkiv region" is probably too vague for missile-guidance programming, don't you think?


I was more thinking the swimming pool and other building features pictured in the media article might be recognizable to any separatist-leaning ethnic Russians.





Ukrainian soldiers take part in an aquatic therapy session in a hot pool at the rehabilitation centre.(AP: Vasilisa Stepanenko)

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## MiTasol (Sunday at 4:01 PM)

GTX said:


> Russia claims to have killed 600 Ukrainian troops in rocket attack on accommodation
> 
> 
> Russia's defence ministry says a strike on buildings in Kramatorsk on Sunday was revenge for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
> ...



As Roger said - probably usual Russian accuracy









No sign of death in attack Russia claims killed 600


Russia's defence ministry says a strike on buildings in Kramatorsk on Sunday was revenge for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.




www.abc.net.au

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## buffnut453 (Sunday at 4:48 PM)

MiTasol said:


> Interesting. It is supposed to be super secret RUSSIAN kit but the name on it is ENGLISH
> 
> View attachment 701643
> 
> ...



Made by Mattel...in the 1970s (at least it looks like it). Even has instructions so the operator puts the batteries in the right way. How sweet of them. Wonder if batteries are included?

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## ARTESH (Sunday at 5:21 PM)

I wanted to write some "hard" answers to post #14917 , eh... Anyway, just forget it! I didn't read it!

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## GrauGeist (Sunday at 5:21 PM)

The laser detector is made by ShinexTech.

It appears they have all sorts of counter-electronic and related equipment available.



https://shinextech.eu/

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## manta22 (Sunday at 7:03 PM)

MiTasol said:


> Interesting. It is supposed to be super secret RUSSIAN kit but the name on it is ENGLISH
> 
> View attachment 701643
> 
> ...


This looks like a training device to score "hits" from laser-equipped rifles. No big deal here.

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## SaparotRob (Sunday at 8:23 PM)

Laser tag?


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## manta22 (Sunday at 8:28 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> Laser tag?


Yep!

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## wlewisiii (Sunday at 8:40 PM)

MILES!


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## Admiral Beez (Sunday at 9:38 PM)

GTX said:


> From Washington, Berlin and Paris, a sudden influx of armor bound for Ukraine - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> "This is a sign the three governments are managing escalation using a ‘boil the frog’ kind of strategy by gradually increasing support to Ukraine not through grand gestures but by adding different pieces of equipment, in intervals," said analyst Ed Arnold.
> ...


The Bradley should be easy to integrate into the AFU as it shares mechanicals with their M270 MRLS.









Bradley for Ukraine: Advantages of This Type of the IFV For the Armed Forces of Ukraine | Defense Express


Bradley IFV has a number decisive advantages over all other hypothetical IFVs that could strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine




en.defence-ua.com





_“The M270, which is actively used in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is based on the Bradley chassis, and the TOW ATGM is supplied as well.”_

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## Thumpalumpacus (Sunday at 11:30 PM)

Bradleys took out T-72s at 73 Easting, iirc. No doubt the Ukrainians can put them to great use for both troop transport and skirmishing as well.

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## hawkeye2an (Monday at 12:24 AM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Bradleys took out T-72s at 73 Easting, iirc. No doubt the Ukrainians can put them to great use for both troop transport and skirmishing as well.


2 Bradleys took out 5 of 13 Iragi tanks before help arrived. I had to look it up, impressive.

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## wlewisiii (Monday at 1:15 AM)

This Is What Bradley Fighting Vehicles Will Bring To The Fight In Ukraine (Updated)


With an initial batch of M2 Bradleys now slated for Ukraine, we dive into what impact these iconic vehicles could have on the battlefield.




www.thedrive.com

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## GrauGeist (Monday at 1:24 AM)

hawkeye2an said:


> 2 Bradleys took out 5 of 13 Iragi tanks before help arrived. I had to look it up, impressive.


Some of the Iraqi tanks killed were Chinese Type 69 MBTs, too.

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## XBe02Drvr (Monday at 3:22 AM)

Johnny Curedents said:


> It is clear that the Special Military Operation is going quite well, almost exactly the opposite of what Western media outlets are reporting. Donbass will soon be totally liberated and the entire world will soon be converted to a multipolar arrangement rather than the so called "rule based" arrangement so dear to certain American politicians and almost all the unelected politicians directing the EU.


Spoken like a true follower of Russian state media! I say we TOW the bridge that troll lives under.

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## XBe02Drvr (Monday at 3:32 AM)

wlewisiii said:


> It's very plausible that he would do so given the events of the past week. However, I will point to the US Senate and note that the cuts the Putin Conference want won't get past the Senate.


House is responsible for budget, taxing, and spending, Senate for foreign affairs, treaties, and judiciary. Financially, what the House wants, the House gets. Only POTUS can stop them.

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## wlewisiii (Monday at 4:00 AM)

Yes, the house has to originate the bill. 

The senate still has to pass the bill. 

They can't change that.

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 7:38 AM)

XBe02Drvr said:


> House is responsible for budget, taxing, and spending, Senate for foreign affairs, treaties, and judiciary. Financially, what the House wants, the House gets. Only POTUS can stop them.


But hasn’t the Lend Lease bill already passed? I thought Biden now had a free pass to flood Ukraine with US aid?

Smacking down muslim despotic regimes and poking Chinese sensitivities over Taiwan aside, the primary reason the USA and most of NATO has a post-WW2 military at all is to deter and if necessary kill Russians. Ukraine is doing it at zero cost in American lives. With that goal in mind, I have to hope American taxpayers and politicians of all stripes can believe their money's well spent in arming Ukraine.

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## Glider (Monday at 9:49 AM)

Looks like the UK are getting ready to send some Challenger tanks to the Ukraine. Talks have been ongoing for a couple of weeks



UK considering sending tanks to Ukraine for first time

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## Warspite63 (Monday at 9:59 AM)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Spoken like a true follower of Russian state media! I say we TOW the bridge that troll lives under.


Well, he IS right about one thing .... 'Donbass will soon be totally liberated' ..... just not quite in the way he hopes.......

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 10:20 AM)

Glider said:


> Looks like the UK are getting ready to send some Challenger tanks to the Ukraine. Talks have been ongoing for a couple of weeks


That sounds like a logistical and maintenance nightmare. First of all, the Challenger 2 is one of the very few NATO tanks that does not use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore gun firing single piece ammunition - ammunition that is used and readily available from most of Ukraine's NATO neighbours. Instead the Challenger 2 uses the L30A1 120 mm rifled gun firing two piece ammunition - ammunition that no one in Europe uses except the Brits, and likely why the new Challenger 3 tanks will instead use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore. And then there's the maintenance. The Challenger 2 uses a Perkins CV12-6A V12 diesel, an engine and UK-based manufacturer (subsidiary of USA's Caterpillar) that no one else in NATO uses. Lastly, no one who's ever owned a vehicle, civilian, commercial or otherwise made in the UK is going to attest to British reliability.









Epic Fail? Expert Claims the United Kingdom's New Challenger 2 Tank Is a Terrible Mistake


Let's take a closer look.




nationalinterest.org

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## Glider (Monday at 10:52 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> That sounds like a logistical and maintenance nightmare. First of all, the Challenger 2 is one of the very few NATO tanks that does not use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore gun firing single piece ammunition - ammunition that is used and readily available from most of Ukraine's NATO neighbours. Instead the Challenger 2 uses the L30A1 120 mm rifled gun firing two piece ammunition - ammunition that no one in Europe uses except the Brits, and likely why the new Challenger 3 tanks will instead use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore. And then there's the maintenance. The Challenger 2 uses a Perkins CV12-6A V12 diesel, an engine and UK-based manufacturer (subsidiary of USA's Caterpillar) that no one else in NATO uses. Lastly, no one who's ever owned a vehicle, civilian, commercial or otherwise made in the UK is going to attest to British reliability.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't disagree about the facts you state (apart from the reliability which in the Challenger 2 has been pretty good). However it's all we have to offer, and from the Ukraine side, it's all that's being offered. The UK doesn't have Leopard II's or MI's to offer, it's all we have, so there isn't any point complaining about it.

There is little doubt that the ones we send will be missing some of the upgrades that other nation's and even when compared to the latest versions of the Challenger. However it is still a very good tank, well armoured, well armed and most certainly a significant upgrade to the T72's. The Challenger has been in action a number of times and hasn't been found wanting.

I think it holds a record of sorts, in that only one Challenger has ever been damaged beyond repair, and that was hit by another Challenger in a 'friendly fire' incident.

Edit - The article doesn't say that its a terrible tank, just it wasn't the first choice.

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 11:00 AM)

Glider said:


> I don't disagree about the facts you state (apart from the reliability which in the Challenger 2 has been pretty good). However it's all we have to offer


Then offer something else other than MBTs. Like AgustaWestland Apaches.

But is the Challenger offer a serious one, made by those who can execute the move once Ukraine accepts it? I think this is more a case of Ukraine says yes please! and then the British bureaucracy starts to turn, and the final decision makers decide the offer was never solid, and that nothing is coming.


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## Glider (Monday at 11:02 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Then offer something else other than MBTs. Like AgustaWestland Apaches.


You mean the ones with Rolls Royce engines that I don't think any other Apache's are equipped with?

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## RogerdeLluria (Monday at 11:11 AM)

Glider said:


> Looks like the UK are getting ready to send some Challenger tanks to the Ukraine. Talks have been ongoing for a couple of weeks
> 
> 
> 
> UK considering sending tanks to Ukraine for first time


 Maybe they will send IFVs before tanks. Mimicking what US/Germany/france do with M2/marder/AMX-10P


And while we are at it. Spain should also join with some Pizarro IFVs ASCOD - Wikipedia

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## Glider (Monday at 11:15 AM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Maybe they will send IFVs before tanks. Mimicking what US/Germany/france do with M2/marder/AMX-10P
> 
> 
> And while we are at it. Spain should also join with some Pizarro IFVs ASCOD - Wikipedia



I wouldn't complain if they did. The Warrior is a very capable APC. It doesn't normally carry an AT missile which the M2 does but the 30mm cannon can deal with anything apart from a MBT.

Going back to the Challenger. I know this is from Wiki but it is well referenced

During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Challenger 2 tanks suffered no tank losses to Iraqi fire. In one encounter within an urban area, a Challenger 2 came under attack from irregular forces with machine guns and rocket propelled grenades. The driver's sight was damaged and while attempting to back away under the commander's directions, the other sights were damaged and the tank threw its tracks entering a ditch. It was hit by 14 rocket propelled grenades from close range and a MILAN anti-tank missile.[39] The crew survived, safe within the tank until it was recovered for repairs, the worst damage being to the sighting system. It was back in operation six hours later. According to British army, one Challenger 2 operating near Basra survived being hit by 70 RPGs in another incident.[40]


25 March 2003: A friendly fire ("blue-on-blue") incident in Basra in which one Challenger 2 of the Black Watch Battlegroup (2nd Royal Tank Regiment) mistakenly engaged another Challenger 2 of the Queen's Royal Lancers after detecting what was believed to be an enemy flanking manoeuvre on thermal equipment. The attacking tank's second HESH round hit the open commander's hatch lid of the QRL tank sending hot fragments into the turret, killing two crew members. The hit caused a fire that eventually ignited the stowed ammunition, destroying the tank. This is only Challenger 2 to be destroyed on operations.[41][42][43]
August 2006: An RPG-29 capable of firing a tandem-charge penetrated the frontal lower underbelly armour of a Challenger 2 commanded by Captain Thomas Williams of The Queens's Royal Hussars south east of al-Amarah, southern Iraq. Its driver, Trooper Sean Chance, lost part of his foot in the blast; two more of the crew were slightly injured. Chance was able to reverse the vehicle 1.5 mi (2.4 km) to the regimental aid post despite his injuries.[44] The incident was not made public until May 2007; in response to accusations that crews had been told the tank was impervious to the insurgents' weapons, the MoD said "We have never claimed that the Challenger 2 is impenetrable."[45] Since then, the explosive reactive armour has been replaced with Chobham Armour and the steel underbelly lined with armour as part of the _Streetfighter_ upgrade as a direct response to this incident.[_citation needed_]
6 April 2007: in Basra, Iraq, a shaped charge from an IED penetrated the underside of a tank resulting in the driver losing a leg and causing minor injuries to another soldier.[46][47]





An upgraded Challenger 2 with added explosive reactive armour panels, manufactured by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems[48]​To help prevent incidents of this nature, Challenger 2s have been upgraded with a new passive armour package, including the use of add-on armour manufactured by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems of Israel.[48] When deployed on operations the Challenger 2 is now normally upgraded to Theatre Entry Standard (TES), which includes a number of modifications including armour and weapon system upgrades

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## RogerdeLluria (Monday at 11:24 AM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> It will not return to service.
> 
> Defense budged is already being sucked by Ukraine war. And, when the war ends, Russia will need at least a decade to just rebuild its armed forces, where a shitty carrier that needs to be constantly accompanied by several Tugs won't be a priority. Not to mention Russia's economy will be badly hurt.
> 
> Nope, Admiral Kuznetsov will rot in it's shipyard only to be eventually scraped 10 years from now.



Maybe I was wrong when I wrote that. Admiral Kuznetsov may be scraped sooner than expected. Apparently it's already in the rotten state


Putin warned Russia's only aircraft carrier in 'state of emergency' and about to sink



"_When the diving teams examined the hull of the ship, it was found that the metal structures below the third deck were exposed to significant corrosion. The holds are completely filled with muddy water, which makes a detailed examination of the ship from the inside impossible._"

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## SaparotRob (Monday at 11:28 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> That sounds like a logistical and maintenance nightmare. First of all, the Challenger 2 is one of the very few NATO tanks that does not use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore gun firing single piece ammunition - ammunition that is used and readily available from most of Ukraine's NATO neighbours. Instead the Challenger 2 uses the L30A1 120 mm rifled gun firing two piece ammunition - ammunition that no one in Europe uses except the Brits, and likely why the new Challenger 3 tanks will instead use a variant of the Rheinmetall 120 mm L/44 smoothbore. And then there's the maintenance. The Challenger 2 uses a Perkins CV12-6A V12 diesel, an engine and UK-based manufacturer (subsidiary of USA's Caterpillar) that no one else in NATO uses. Lastly, no one who's ever owned a vehicle, civilian, commercial or otherwise made in the UK is going to attest to British reliability.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's a start. Perhaps this will get Leopards into Ukraine faster. Portugal has a lot of Leopards (I think). Is Portugal expecting to be invaded by Spain?


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## buffnut453 (Monday at 11:35 AM)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Spoken like a true follower of Russian state media!



Don't forget that Western media is conspiring to mislead everyone in Europe, the US and Canada, Australia, and elsewhere about the actual state of the war in Ukraine...and that includes right-biased feeds like Fox News, left-biased feeds like CNN, Reuters (which is pretty unbiased), and even news organizations that have a mandate not to show political bias, like the BBC. It's one hell of a conspiracy!

It's a good thing that we have open, unbiased, unadulterated Russian media to keep us all straight. 

<Sarcasm Mode: OFF>

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## GTX (Monday at 12:46 PM)

Ukraine Situation Report: European Vote Calls For Providing Leopard Tanks

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## GTX (Monday at 12:48 PM)

Russian actor facing criminal charges for 'anti-Russian' statement


From playing a Soviet war hero to facing criminal charges for his 'anti-Russian' remarks, actor Artur Smolyaninov is the latest public figure to come under the scrutiny of the Kremlin's censorship laws.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Monday at 12:48 PM)

Ukrainian officials decry Russian 'terrorists' after missile attack on market


Two women have been killed and four other people have been wounded in a Russian missile strike on a market in eastern Ukraine, according to officials.




www.abc.net.au

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 12:50 PM)

GTX said:


> Ukraine Situation Report: European Vote Calls For Providing Leopard Tanks


Are these EU level votes useful beyond aspirational? I wonder how Germany's EU reps voted?

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## GTX (Monday at 1:20 PM)

Ukrainian military receives first ACSV armored vehicles


Canada reportedly had successfully delivered the first brand-new Armored Combat Support Vehicles (ACSV) to Ukraine. Footages of the Canadian-made armored vehicles began emerging on social media on December 2022, and showed ACSV in Troop Cargo Vehicle (TCV) configuration. The ACSV is a wheeled...




defence-blog.com

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 1:27 PM)

GTX said:


> Ukrainian military receives first ACSV armored vehicles
> 
> 
> Canada reportedly had successfully delivered the first brand-new Armored Combat Support Vehicles (ACSV) to Ukraine. Footages of the Canadian-made armored vehicles began emerging on social media on December 2022, and showed ACSV in Troop Cargo Vehicle (TCV) configuration. The ACSV is a wheeled...
> ...


It's only a matter of weeks before the AFU figure out how to install a wrecked BMP-2's 2A42 30 mm autocannon into the ACSV. 

Here it is below, ready for innovative Ukrainian engineers to drop-in and go, courtesy of Tankograd







Here's your standard LAV-3 turret being installed at GDLS in Canada. Looks like the BMP's turret will be a tight squeeze.






We should have sent them the armed version below to begin with.


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## Escuadrilla Azul (Monday at 4:23 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Are these EU level votes useful beyond aspirational? I wonder how Germany's EU reps voted?


Long answer short: No.

Most of the resolutions of the EU parliament are aspiracional and, although it had gained power in the XXI century, it lags far beyond the legistative power of any national parliament and the politics are decided, mainly, by Germany and, some, by France.

Edit: the members come from the different countries but come from tradicional parties, so the votes are mainly in ideological lines, more than in national lines, so probably far left (Die Linke) and far right (AfD) members had voted no or abstained and the rest (liberal, SDP, CDU) yes.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Monday at 5:33 PM)

XBe02Drvr said:


> Spoken like a true follower of Russian state media! I say we TOW the bridge that troll lives under.



Tow it where?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Monday at 5:36 PM)

XBe02Drvr said:


> House is responsible for budget, taxing, and spending, Senate for foreign affairs, treaties, and judiciary. Financially, what the House wants, the House gets. Only POTUS can stop them.



Not exactly correct. All finance bills _must_ start in the House, meaning they can define the expenditures, but those bills must still gain Senatorial and Presidential approval before becoming law and funds being released. Until then, what the House decides it wants must still take into account the possibility of failure in the Senate or a veto from the Oval Office.

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## SaparotRob (Monday at 5:54 PM)

I need to watch School House Rock again.

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 6:38 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Tow it where?


No, this TOW. But you’ll do no damage to the bridge with this short range, direct line of sight, weapon system.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Monday at 7:10 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, this TOW. But you’ll do no damage to the bridge with this short range, direct line of sight, weapon system.



What does short range and direct line of sight have to do with it?


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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 7:42 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> What does short range and direct line of sight have to do with it?


I believe the suggestion was to hit the Kerch bridge linking Russia to Ukraine with a TOW missile. This would require the shooter to be within range of the bridge and be able to see it for aiming purposes. But if that’s not the intent, then disregard.

Edit: I see it now, we were to TOW a hypothetical bridge our troll was hiding under. Still, destroying a bridge sufficiently to injure someone below it with a TOW antitank missile might not work. A mortar or howitzer is better.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Monday at 8:23 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> No, this TOW. But you’ll do no damage to the bridge with this short range, direct line of sight, weapon system.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Monday at 9:24 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> I believe the suggestion was to hit the Kerch bridge linking Russia to Ukraine with a TOW missile. This would require the shooter to be within range of the bridge and be able to see it for aiming purposes. But if that’s not the intent, then disregard.
> 
> Edit: I see it now, we were to TOW a hypothetical bridge our troll was hiding under. Still, destroying a bridge sufficiently to injure someone below it with a TOW antitank missile might not work. A mortar or howitzer is better.



I’m glad you got the joke… 

As for the Tow missile, though, while I agree it is not the most ideal, all you have to do though is take out a structural support or leg, and TOW might be sufficient for that.


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## GrauGeist (Monday at 9:42 PM)

Why not just target the troll?

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Monday at 9:42 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Why not just target the troll?



Even better…

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## Admiral Beez (Monday at 10:39 PM)

Glider said:


> Looks like the UK are getting ready to send some Challenger tanks to the Ukraine. Talks have been ongoing for a couple of weeks
> 
> 
> 
> UK considering sending tanks to Ukraine for first time


How many spare Challengers would the British army have?


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## buffnut453 (Monday at 10:49 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Why not just target the troll?



Because he hides UNDER the bridge! DUH!!!


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## GrauGeist (Monday at 11:06 PM)

buffnut453 said:


> Because he hides UNDER the bridge! DUH!!!


Under a bridge or in a building - there are ways to take care of that...

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## Thumpalumpacus (Monday at 11:49 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Why not just target the troll?



*T*roll-*O*riented *W*eapon.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Monday at 11:53 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Under a bridge or in a building - there are ways to take care of that...
> 
> View attachment 701840

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 6:59 AM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> View attachment 701842


The 2023 market for flamethrowers looks hot.









Flamethrower Market 2023 : Incredible Possibilities, Growth Analysis and Forecast To 2028


Jan 05, 2023 (The Expresswire) -- Final Report will add the analysis of the impact of Russia-Ukraine War and COVID-19 on this industry. "Flamethrower Market"...




www.marketwatch.com





Does Ukraine have any?

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## buffnut453 (Tuesday at 7:42 AM)

Not good news on the Bakhmut front:









Ukraine war: Russia controls most of pounded salt mine town, Soledar, says UK


There has been fighting near entrances to 200km-long tunnels, which could be used for infiltration.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 7:50 AM)

buffnut453 said:


> Not good news on the Bakhmut front:


I wonder if the Ukrainians are limiting resources at the Bakhmut front so they can launch a January offensive to Melitopol. Meanwhile, the Russians are either hoarding or running out of artillery shells - western media and its legion of ex-military analysts suggest the latter.









Russian artillery fire down nearly 75%, US officials say, in latest sign of struggles for Moscow | CNN Politics


As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its 11th month, US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia's artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75 percent.




www.cnn.com

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## Denniss (Tuesday at 9:16 AM)

Other sites comment the Wagner forces operate in WW1 style - throw masses of manpower against the defenders and they may be overwhelmend (or not). Wait for the "expendable" prisoners to achieve something then send the "good" mecenaries to finish the job.

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 9:38 AM)

Denniss said:


> Wait for the "expendable" prisoners to achieve something then send the "good" mecenaries to finish the job.


The pawns go first.

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 9:44 AM)

Glider said:


> Looks like the UK are getting ready to send some Challenger tanks to the Ukraine. Talks have been ongoing for a couple of weeks


I would like to see the Challenger 2 with well trained crews, supported with ammunition, spares and maintenance in Ukrainians hands, in the Challenger's natural and intended eastern European terrain, facing off against its intended foe, the T-90. My guess is a squadron of Challenger 2s if well supported can wipe out an entire BTG. It's basically Panther tanks vs. T-28s.


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## SaparotRob (Tuesday at 9:50 AM)

From all the stuff posted and from what I've been reading, was powering the M-1with a turbine as good an idea as it once seemed?


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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 10:17 AM)

SaparotRob said:


> From all the stuff posted and from what I've been reading, was powering the M-1with a turbine as good an idea as it once seemed?


With the huge logistically capabilities of the US I'd say yes. But it is noteworthy that the Abrams' replacement appears to be diesel-electric.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/12/abramsx-ai-hybrid-military-battle-tank/


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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 1:24 PM)

No contest, IMO.


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## GTX (Tuesday at 1:29 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> With the huge logistically capabilities of the US I'd say yes. But it is noteworthy that the Abrams' replacement appears to be diesel-electric.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/12/abramsx-ai-hybrid-military-battle-tank/


Errr...Abrams X is not a replacement. It is nothing more than a Tech Demonstrator at this stage.


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## GrauGeist (Tuesday at 1:33 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> From all the stuff posted and from what I've been reading, was powering the M-1with a turbine as good an idea as it once seemed?


The M1's turbine can run on pretty much any fuel available.

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## GTX (Tuesday at 1:49 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> From all the stuff posted and from what I've been reading, was powering the M-1with a turbine as good an idea as it once seemed?


Yes it was. Remember that the US did originally look at the AVCR1360 variable compression diesel as an alternative to the AGT1500:










They also looked at the MTU MT 883 V12 diesel engine as an alternative about a decade ago and stuck with the AGT1500 Gas Turbine.

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 1:56 PM)

As long as you have the US Army's excellent supply and support chain, along with air/ground superiority to/from and over/around your ROM point, the short range of the Abrams is not a problem. I'm just not sure Ukraine can do the first, let alone the second.

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## GTX (Tuesday at 2:42 PM)

L3Harris Receives VAMPIRE Contract for Ukrainian Security Defense Efforts


L3Harris Technologies announced today receiving a $40 million Department of Defense contract to deliver 14 Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment - or VAMPIRE™ multi-purpose weapons system - to strengthen Ukrainian security defense efforts.




www.l3harris.com

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## GTX (Tuesday at 2:47 PM)

First on CNN: Ukrainians to start training on Patriot missiles in US as soon as next week | CNN Politics


Ukrainian troops are set to begin training on the Patriot missile system in the United States as soon as next week.




edition.cnn.com

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## Admiral Beez (Tuesday at 6:09 PM)

GTX said:


> First on CNN: Ukrainians to start training on Patriot missiles in US as soon as next week | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops are set to begin training on the Patriot missile system in the United States as soon as next week.
> ...


Start training? I hope that‘s just for public consumption and that in actuality the AFU have these last ten months or more been training on Patriots, Leopards, Abrams, ATACMS, Excalibur, JDAMS, Vipers, Apaches, etc, etc.

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 1:00 AM)

I wonder why Poland and Finland won't take advantage of situation and reclaim their lost territories? Opening new fronts would be a great help for Ukrainians.

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## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 1:39 AM)

ARTESH said:


> I wonder why Poland and Finland won't take advantage of situation and reclaim their lost territories? Opening new fronts would be a great help for Ukrainians.


That would be a sticky situation.

Germany attempted to reclaim lost lands in the late 30's that belonged to the Prussian (German) Empire prior to the end of WWI and as you know, created a bit of a problem.

Currently, I would think that Georgia and Moldova would be within their rights to expel the Russian occupiers in their territory and there would not be much that Russia could do to stop it.

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## ThomasP (Yesterday at 1:49 AM)

Georgia might have a serious problem trying to oust the Russians from the annexed area, due to their relatively small military (as we talked about up-thread) and the shared border with Russia. Moldova could certainly do so, as they have no common border with Russia or Belarus, and the sea route is well within Ukraine's ability to interdict - which I am sure Ukraine would happily do.

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## GTX (Yesterday at 2:38 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Start training? I hope that‘s just for public consumption and that in actuality the AFU have these last ten months or more been training on Patriots, Leopards, Abrams, ATACMS, Excalibur, JDAMS, Vipers, Apaches, etc, etc.


Why would they?


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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 3:33 AM)

GrauGeist said:


> That would be a sticky situation.
> 
> Germany attempted to reclaim lost lands in the late 30's that belonged to the Prussian (German) Empire prior to the end of WWI and as you know, created a bit of a problem.
> 
> Currently, I would think that Georgia and Moldova would be within their rights to expel the Russian occupiers in their territory and there would not be much that Russia could do to stop it.


No idea about Moldova, but Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and ... All belong to Iran, they were lost during Russo-Persian wars during Qajar dynasty. Afghanistan and Pakistan were lost to Brits, at same time.

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## Snautzer01 (Yesterday at 4:11 AM)

ARTESH said:


> No idea about Moldova, but Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and ... All belong to Iran, they were lost during Russo-Persian wars during Qajar dynasty. Afghanistan and Pakistan were lost to Brits, at same time.


You can have afghanistan back.

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## WAFU (Yesterday at 6:08 AM)

SaparotRob said:


> From all the stuff posted and from what I've been reading, was powering the M-1with a turbine as good an idea as it once seemed?



The M1 uses no more fuel, often less, than any equivalent MBT

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## WAFU (Yesterday at 6:13 AM)

buffnut453 said:


> Not good news on the Bakhmut front:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If you are willing to throw in endless human wave attacks in, even the best motivated and equipped troops will be worn down.
The RuZZians are making incremental progress, at huge cost, and often by simply running a defensive point low on ammunition and forcing it to fall back.
This is Stalingrad tactics in 2023 - right down to Kadyrovite Blocking Battalion behinds the Wagner cannon fodder who are being fed forward into the meat grinder

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## tomo pauk (Yesterday at 6:25 AM)

ARTESH said:


> No idea about Moldova, but Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and ... All belong to Iran, they were lost during Russo-Persian wars during Qajar dynasty. Afghanistan and Pakistan were lost to Brits, at same time.



That's the ticket.
Croatia: well, Bosnia is actually ours
Austria: well, Slovenia and Sud Tirol are actually ours. Czechia and Schlesia too.
Serbia: dibs on Montenegro, Kosovo and N. Macedonia
Hungary: are you kidding??
Sweden: Finand is ours, so are the Baltic states
Denmark: Norway and UK belongs to us.
Turkey: I want my oil fields back; yes, those in Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, plus Jerusalem, Mekka and Medinah

Mongolia and UK: hold my beer

If going after the suggestion quoted is not going to bring joy, peace and prosperity to the people populating these areas, I don't know what will.

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## tomo pauk (Yesterday at 6:55 AM)

Not funny at all.

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 7:00 AM)

tomo pauk said:


> If going after the suggestion quoted is not going to bring joy, peace and prosperity to the people populating these areas, I don't know what will.


In dreams, it seems fun and doable! But in reality, that's impossible! First of all, we are talking about "independent nations" and not "lost / occupied" territories! Second, those "agreements" have lost their value, because neither of the sides, exists anymore! They have disappeared around same time, 1917, Russian Empire and 1925, Qajar dynasty.

That is just a reference to problems with "Russia" and why most of Iranians dislike / distrust Russian Rulers.

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 7:02 AM)

tomo pauk said:


> Not funny at all.


My funny reaction was to "first part" of your post, because it reminded of "country ball" memes.

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## Snautzer01 (Yesterday at 7:34 AM)



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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 9:10 AM)

WAFU said:


> If you are willing to throw in endless human wave attacks in, even the best motivated and equipped troops will be worn down. The RuZZians are making incremental progress, at huge cost


Well, it seems to be working. And as a bonus, Russia gets to convert its prison population, often made up of violent criminals into corpses. 

At 2:23 below we're told how the Wagner Group is finding success. And remember, the number of dead to them is meaningless.

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## WAFU (Yesterday at 9:25 AM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Well, it seems to be working. And as a bonus, Russia gets to convert its prison population, often made up of violent criminals into corpses.
> 
> At 2:23 below we're told how the Wagner Group is finding success. And remember, the number of dead to them is meaningless.




Exploitation is generally conducted VDV or Marines, the RuZZians best professional troops, they don't expend then on direct assaults, only on breaking through the weakened defenders.
This also causes a problem for the Ukrainians. They can't rotate out their now tired high end troops as they are needed near the front to counter a VDV./Marines breakthrough, causing them to burn out. Its been noted by observers that the formerly very effective elite Ukrainian formations are now almost spent.

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 9:29 AM)

I still believe in violence as the only real "solution".

That's the only language that "dictators" understand.

A massive and continues Aerial, Naval and Artillery Bombardment of occupied territories and border lines, and executing every single prisoner, specially "non-Russians", assassination of Russian Businessmen and diplomats, kidnapping family and children of Russian officials, etc...

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## Dimlee (Yesterday at 10:34 AM)

In the meantime... From the President of Poland.

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## buffnut453 (Yesterday at 10:42 AM)

Prigozhin going off-script?









 Soledar: Ukraine battle hints at rift in pro-Russian forces


Russia's defence ministry and the mercenary Wagner Group give competing versions of events in Soledar.



www.bbc.com

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 11:41 AM)

Dimlee said:


> In the meantime... From the President of Poland.
> View attachment 702128


Can you share the original tweet so we can click the translate button? Or provide a translation?

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## buffnut453 (Yesterday at 11:47 AM)

Now THIS IS REALLY, *REALLY *INTERESTING! 

According to the Russian ministry of defence, and reported by the state-owned Ria Novosti news agency, General Gerasimov has been appointed as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, with the current commander, Surovikin, becoming Gerasimov's deputy. 









Russian Army General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov replaces Sergey Surovikin as Russia’s top commander in Ukraine — Meduza


Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian Army's General Staff, has been named the new commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine, RIA Novosti reported on Wednesday, citing the Russian Defense Ministry.




meduza.io

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## Frog (Yesterday at 11:54 AM)

tomo pauk said:


> That's the ticket.
> Croatia: well, Bosnia is actually ours
> Austria: well, Slovenia and Sud Tirol are actually ours. Czechia and Schlesia too.
> Serbia: dibs on Montenegro, Kosovo and N. Macedonia
> ...



Is Louisiana That Napoléon sold in a momentary lapse to be claimed by France ?

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## WARSPITER (Yesterday at 12:07 PM)

Frog said:


> Is Louisiana That Napoléon sold in a momentary lapse to be claimed by France ?


No. That was bought and paid for.

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## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 12:12 PM)

tomo pauk said:


> That's the ticket.
> Croatia: well, Bosnia is actually ours
> Austria: well, Slovenia and Sud Tirol are actually ours. Czechia and Schlesia too.
> Serbia: dibs on Montenegro, Kosovo and N. Macedonia
> ...



Imperial Rome would like to have a word...

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## fubar57 (Yesterday at 12:33 PM)

Updated.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-1.6710014

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## GTX (Yesterday at 12:33 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Can you share the original tweet so we can click the translate button? Or provide a translation?


President @AndrzejDuda in #Lviv: Kompania
of Leopard tanks to Ukraine will be transferred as part of coalition building
international. That decision is already made
in Poland.

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## GTX (Yesterday at 12:34 PM)

Poland plans to give Ukraine Leopard tanks as part of coalition


Poland has decided to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition, the Polish president said on Wednesday, as Warsaw seeks to play a leading role in reaching a consensus among Western allies on such support.




www.reuters.com

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## GTX (Yesterday at 12:37 PM)

Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, if others do, too


Polish President Andrzej Duda says that the European Union nation has decided to send a company of Leopard tanks to help neighboring Ukraine in the war with invading Russia




abcnews.go.com

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 12:40 PM)

GTX said:


> Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, if others do, too
> 
> 
> Polish President Andrzej Duda says that the European Union nation has decided to send a company of Leopard tanks to help neighboring Ukraine in the war with invading Russia
> ...


Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, if others do, too
JMFC, is there no one on the European continent willing to make the first move on anything? Poland's repeating the same sh#t they did with the MiG-29 debacle in spring 2022, where they offered the jets to Ukraine but only if some other country acted first to facilitate things. Why are the Ukrainians the only people in Europe with any balls?

Here's what Poland should be announcing:

_Wczoraj wysłaliśmy na Ukrainę dwadzieścia czołgów Leopard, amunicję i części zamienne. Mamy nadzieję, że ta inicjatywa przekona innych operatorów Leopardów i czołgów podstawowych do zrobienia tego samego, Sláva Ukrayíni!_

_ Yesterday, we sent twenty Leopard tanks, plus ammunition and spares to Ukraine. We hope this initiative will convince other Leopard and MBT operators to do the same, Sláva Ukrayíni!_

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Yesterday at 1:15 PM)

tomo pauk said:


> That's the ticket.
> Croatia: well, Bosnia is actually ours
> Austria: well, Slovenia and Sud Tirol are actually ours. Czechia and Schlesia too.
> Serbia: dibs on Montenegro, Kosovo and N. Macedonia
> ...



While we are at it Poland can give me my land s that I hold the title to in what used to be Germany?

I agree with you, though, you can’t go back to ancient times and claim lands that have been lost for a thousand years. Otherwise the majority of Europe, North Africa, and the Mide East will be under Rome’s control again. Italy says they want their empire back.


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## GTX (Yesterday at 1:17 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> While we are at it Poland can give me my land s that I hold the title to in what used to be Germany?
> 
> I agree with you, though, you can’t go back to ancient times and claim lands that have been lost for a thousand years. Otherwise the majority of Europe, North Africa, and the Mide East will be under Rome’s control again. Italy says they want their empire back.


Greece and other places might have a say too...

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Yesterday at 1:24 PM)

ARTESH said:


> I still believe in violence as the only real "solution".
> 
> That's the only language that "dictators" understand.
> 
> A massive and continues Aerial, Naval and Artillery Bombardment of occupied territories and border lines, and executing every single prisoner, specially "non-Russians", assassination of Russian Businessmen and diplomats, kidnapping family and children of Russian officials, etc...



Let’s not go down this ridiculous road again. That’s not how the civilized world works (and rightfully so). If you want to be a part of that world, then I suggest figuring that out.

This may sound harsh, but maybe that is what people in your part of the world understand, but thankfully not in mine. I prefer living in a just and civilized society, where we handle things in a better and civilized way.

Enough of this. There will be zero condoning or promoting violence against women, children, or innocent people (sounds like terrorism, huh?). Neither will the assassination of civilians and non-combatants (sounds like uncivilized terrorism, huh?).

In the civilized world, we also do not execute prisoners of war. They are treated in accordance with the Geneva convention. Executing them makes you no better than the enemy or terrorist scum.

Now, enough!

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## special ed (Yesterday at 1:35 PM)

Louisiana was also Spanish, native American and CSA. It is best to leave it in it's present state of confusion.

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## Greg Boeser (Yesterday at 1:40 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> While we are at it Poland can give me my land s that I hold the title to in what used to be Germany?
> 
> I agree with you, though, you can’t go back to ancient times and claim lands that have been lost for a thousand years. Otherwise the majority of Europe, North Africa, and the Mide East will be under Rome’s control again. Italy says they want their empire back.


Some Polish friends were offered their ancestral lands back, if they would just pay the back taxes.


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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 1:44 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let’s not go down this ridiculous road again. That’s not how the civilized world works (and rightfully so). If you want to be a part of that world, then I suggest figuring that out.
> 
> This may sound harsh, but maybe that is what people in your part of the world understand, but thankfully not in mine. I prefer living in a just and civilized society, where we handle things in a better and civilized way.
> 
> ...



Roger that!

But I want to know your opinion about the part you didn't mention: massive and continues Bombardment of occupied areas and border areas. Sth like WW1 tactics.


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Yesterday at 1:47 PM)

ARTESH said:


> Roger that!
> 
> But I want to know your opinion about the part you didn't mention: massive and continues Bombardment of occupied areas and border areas. Sth like WW1 tactics.



That is covered under the murder of civilians. 

Nothing more to be said!

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 1:50 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> While we are at it Poland can give me my land s that I hold the title to in what used to be Germany?


In a way, the First World War was very beneficial to the Poles. They no had homeland beforehand, and ended up after 1918 seeing their country emerge from the wreckage of Germany and Russia. Had the Tsar held on and the Russians fought on through to Nov 1918 the area we know as Poland would have been absorbed into Russia. 

Just look at the size of Germany in 1914. Had it lasted to today you'd likely be able to take a high speed train from Konigsberg to Stuttgart in a few hours.... or drive the autobahn.

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## Snautzer01 (Yesterday at 2:02 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> That’s not how the civilized world works


And little less on the scale, i think this board. 



 ARTESH

Now i do like a different view, or a joke, or both at the same time. 
But Adler is quite, quite right. There are some etiquettes here not to be breached. I think this is one. Please dont go there. 
You are here long enough to feel what can and cannot. 
Cheers.

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## GTX (Yesterday at 2:11 PM)

Well if people want to start staking claims to previously 'owned' lands...







The Greeks Romans, Persians and a bunch of other thieves took it all

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 2:49 PM)

GTX said:


> Well if people want to start staking claims to previously 'owned' lands...


Us Brits want it all back. And Belarus had better watch out.









Britain Has Invaded All but 22 Countries


Of the current 200 nations in the world, the British have invaded all but 22 of them. The lucky 22 include Sweden, Luxembourg, M




kottke.org

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Yesterday at 3:06 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Us Brits want it all back. And Belarus had better watch out.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Not possible. The Vikings and Romans get to reclaim the British Isles. You don’t exist.

Gotta love that slippery slope…

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 3:11 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Not possible. The Vikings and Romans get to reclaim the British Isles. You don’t exist.
> 
> Gotta love that slippery slope…


We're like the Borg, you come to us, be it Vikings, Romans, Saxons, Pakistanis, Ugandans, Albanians, etc. we will assimilate you. Resistance is futile.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Yesterday at 3:14 PM)

I guess there are worse things…


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## wlewisiii (Yesterday at 3:14 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> We're like the Borg, you come to us, be it Vikings, Romans, Saxons, Pakistanis, Ugandans, Albanians, etc. we will assimilate you. Resistance is futile.



Only their languages. As has been noted more than once...



> "The problem with defending the purity of the English language is that English is about as pure as a cribhouse whore. We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary."
> ― *James D. Nicoll*

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 3:18 PM)

Meanwhile...

Sub-atomic particles: are we a joke to you???

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## Snautzer01 (Yesterday at 3:20 PM)

ARTESH said:


> Meanwhile...
> 
> Sub-atomic particles: are we a joke to you???


Only the positive ones.

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## ARTESH (Yesterday at 3:25 PM)

Snautzer01 said:


> And little less on the scale, i think this board.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I understand!

I would be very very grateful if someone can help me to overcome this "hatred". Because I really don't want to go back to drugs and alcohol.

I just want to go back to my normal life, posting about Iran - Iraq war, posting photos from Iran ... Just anything others do, and I did before.

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## hawkeye2an (Yesterday at 5:08 PM)

Artillery sinks Russian warship in Dnipro River, says Ukraine

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 5:40 PM)

hawkeye2an said:


> Artillery sinks Russian warship in Dnipro River, says Ukraine


That is one bizarre article you posted. There’s no firm info on the latest claim, followed by a rehash of events from last year. The better title is “says Jerusalem Post”.

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## SaparotRob (Yesterday at 6:02 PM)

But I liked the picture of the artificial reef. It's rare to see them while still above sea level.

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## Macandy (Yesterday at 8:32 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, if others do, tooJMFC, is there no one on the European continent willing to make the first move on anything? Poland's repeating the same sh#t they did with the MiG-29 debacle in spring 2022, where they offered the jets to Ukraine but only if some other country acted first to facilitate things. Why are the Ukrainians the only people in Europe with any balls?
> 
> Here's what Poland should be announcing:
> 
> ...




Because the Germans keep users of their equipment on a short leash especially as regards spares.
The end result is Germany has shot both feet off since March 2022 with its foot dragging re arms to Ukraine, and the former massive German arms industry is experiencing a distinct drought in orders as users realise Germany never intended its export customers ever to actually use the stuff in anger.
Meanwhile, Poland is shaping up to be the new European defence export heavy hitter thanks to its productions deals for Tanks, SPG's, MLRS, MICV's its done with Korea.

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 9:10 PM)

Macandy said:


> Because the Germans keep users of their equipment on a short leash especially as regards spares.


I agree the Germans are being obstructionists, but Poland’s announcement was that they’d send Leopard tanks to Ukraine once anyone else also did the same. These needn’t be the Germans, and could be any Leo2 operator, even us Canadians. I think in this case Germany is not causing Poland’s conditional offer, but it’s instead a repeat of Poland’s debacle with the MiG-29, where they want to be seen as helping but don’t want to be seen as taking the lead in arming Ukraine with modern Western kit. Fear of offending Russia runs deep in Warsaw.


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## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 9:32 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> Fear of offending Russia runs deep in Warsaw.


I don't think that's the case, since Poland has been one of the biggest supplies for aid to Ukraine in Europe.

I feel that Poland is putting pressure in Germany to relinquish it's grip on Leopards.

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## wlewisiii (Yesterday at 9:35 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> I don't think that's the case, since Poland has been one of the biggest supplies for aid to Ukraine in Europe.
> 
> I feel that Poland is putting pressure in Germany to relinquish it's grip on Leopards.



I get that the Germans are still worried about being seen as war mongers. The pressure from other nations is a necessary part of that. 

And speaking of pressure: 



The Leo II is the best option for them. Here's hoping they can get them.

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## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 9:43 PM)

wlewisiii said:


> I get that the Germans are still worried about being seen as war mongers. The pressure from other nations is a necessary part of that.
> 
> And speaking of pressure:
> 
> ...



I read that Finland has joined Poland with a pledge of Leopards, too.

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## WARSPITER (Yesterday at 9:51 PM)

If Poland, Finland and so on start to supply these tanks then the longer term outlook for Russia becomes even worse as the supplying
countries get even more modern replacements which will be, in some cases, directly opposite the Russian border.

Putin is a strategic genius.

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## Admiral Beez (Yesterday at 10:09 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> I read that Finland has joined Poland with a pledge of Leopards, too.


A potentially risky move for Finland, a non-NATO member to get involved. Russia would have to be mad to preemptively hit Finland, but yeah, Russia is mad.

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## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 10:11 PM)

Considering that Finland is a founding member of the "f**k around and find out" club, I don't think they're too worried.

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## ThomasP (Yesterday at 11:08 PM)

"U.S. military tanks at Dutch port en route to NATO frontier"

(putta-putta-putta, vroom-vroom)

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## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 11:17 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> I agree the Germans are being obstructionists, but Poland’s announcement was that they’d send Leopard tanks to Ukraine once anyone else also did the same. These needn’t be the Germans, and could be any Leo2 operator, even us Canadians. I think in this case Germany is not causing Poland’s conditional offer, but it’s instead a repeat of Poland’s debacle with the MiG-29, where they want to be seen as helping but don’t want to be seen as taking the lead in arming Ukraine with modern Western kit. Fear of offending Russia runs deep in Warsaw.



I don't entirely agree. Poland has been a beneficent donator of arms and equipment to Ukraine from their own stocks while taking good measures to backfill their own defense requirements. Yes, we'd like to see someone to say "Right, I'll go first", but with Poland being so close, it's hard for me to find blame in them wanting to ensure support before shipping their kit off elsewhere.

I think we in America should unlock stored M-1s, start training Ukrainians to use them, and announce it to break any deadlock. We here are much further away and much less at risk than Poland. We've given much, but we have in my opinion pussyfooted about it. I'm good with storage Abrams and F-16s, and setting a good example.

Also, A-10s, dammit. Give 'em some brrrt!

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## wlewisiii (Yesterday at 11:17 PM)

Jesus H Fucking Christ, if this is accurate… Why they're there? We don't know. But I can hope…

The pictures in this article show the equipment needed by a full US Armored BN: M577 Command vehicles. M88 Recovery Vehicles. M2 Bradelys. Mfucking1 Abrams.

I expect this will probably be a nothing burger but oh crap, can I hope?

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## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 11:19 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> A potentially risky move for Finland, a non-NATO member to get involved. Russia would have to be mad to preemptively hit Finland, but yeah, Russia is mad.



Once bitten, twice shy. The bear's nose is already well into one trap as it is.

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## ThomasP (Yesterday at 11:26 PM)

Third lot of Ukraine-destined M113 variants arriving from the US now/soon also. Was watching some of them load the other day.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 11:27 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> Considering that Finland is a founding member of the "f**k around and find out" club, I don't think they're too worried.



We need a FAAFO smiley around here.

My suggestion:

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## fubar57 (Yesterday at 11:32 PM)

Needs a groundhogs touch

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## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 11:34 PM)

fubar57 said:


> Needs a groundhogs touch
> 
> View attachment 702196​



The mushrooms are a nice touch.


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## wlewisiii (Yesterday at 11:35 PM)

ThomasP said:


> Third lot of Ukraine-destined M113 variants arriving from the US now/soon also. Was watching some of them load the other day.


The 113 is a good vehicle. The 113A3? Excellent vehicle that is possibly the best of the "battle taxis" made.


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## GrauGeist (Today at 12:06 AM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> We need a FAAFO smiley around here.
> 
> My suggestion:
> 
> View attachment 702195


I have a subdued patch laying around somewhere that has the caption "f**k around" across the top and "find out" across the bottom.
In the center is a Honey Badger.

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## GrauGeist (Today at 12:09 AM)

wlewisiii said:


> The 113 is a good vehicle. The 113A3? Excellent vehicle that is possibly the best of the "battle taxis" made.


The M3 is perhaps the best "battle taxi" around.

This is by no means putting the one-thirteen down, as it's been proven worthy on many levels.


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## wlewisiii (Today at 12:18 AM)

GrauGeist said:


> The M3 is perhaps the best "battle taxi" around.
> 
> This is by no means putting the one-thirteen down, as it's been proven worthy on many levels.


The M2/M3 are not battle taxis though. They're IFVs and that's a very different type of vehicle that is best used in _very_ different ways.


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## GrauGeist (Today at 12:40 AM)

wlewisiii said:


> The M2/M3 are not battle taxis though. They're IFVs and that's a very different type of vehicle that is best used in _very_ different ways.


Of course, it depends on the Bradley variant, which could carry almost half the heads of the one-thirteen's capacity.

But if push came to shove, I'd rather be rattled about in a Bradley, as it can fight back on a much higher level.

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## Thumpalumpacus (Today at 12:50 AM)

GrauGeist said:


> Of course, it depends on the Bradley variant, which could carry almost half the heads of the one-thirteen's capacity.
> 
> But if push came to shove, I'd rather be rattled about in a Bradley, as it can fight back on a much higher level.



Gladly we're sending some 50 Bradleys too. 25mm chain gun, troop transport capability, and let's stick some ATGMs on it too.


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## RogerdeLluria (Today at 2:43 AM)

Speaking of blocking arms for Ukraine.








Switzerland blocks Spanish arms for Ukraine | Switzerland Times


Limited understanding in Madrid of Swiss neutrality Bern vetoes Spanish arms delivery to Ukraine Spain wants to deliver military material to Ukraine, but is prevented from doing so by Switzerland.…




switzerlandtimes.ch

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## Denniss (Today at 3:40 AM)

strange new neutrality of switzerland, they usually give a shit where money of their banks come from and goes to but arms transfer from a friendly country to another one under attack noooooo.

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## Macandy (Today at 5:56 AM)

The Ukrainians are getting the M2A2 ODS

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## Thumpalumpacus (Today at 8:39 AM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Speaking of blocking arms for Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



America should renege on the sale of F-35s to them, then.

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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Today at 8:43 AM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> America should renege on the sale of F-35s to them, then.



I agree.


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## Thumpalumpacus (Today at 8:45 AM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> I agree.



Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.


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## XBe02Drvr (Today at 9:39 AM)

@


ThomasP said:


> Third lot of Ukraine-destined M113 variants arriving from the US now/soon also. Was watching some of them load the other day.


"One if by air and two if by sea,
and we on the opposite shore will be..."
"What's it gonna be, Reverend Warren?"


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## GrauGeist (Today at 10:50 AM)

The article didn't say what the equipment was, but checking equipment made by Switzerland finds that Spain has several Swiss made AFVs: Piranha III and Piranha V - Spain also is a user of Swiss made shouldered weapons, too.

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## Glider (Today at 12:32 PM)

If anyone has any shares in Swiss weapons manufacturers, I suggest you sell them now because no country is going to buy anything else from them.

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## GTX (Today at 12:54 PM)

wlewisiii said:


> Only their languages. As has been noted more than once...


Most definitely. Anyone interested in the history of English language should read this:

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## GTX (Today at 12:58 PM)

Ukraine says Russian troops are marching over bodies of their own dead in Soledar


Russia says its forces are edging closer to capturing a salt-mining town in eastern Ukraine, which would mark an elusive victory for the Kremlin but come at the cost of heavy Russian casualties and extensive destruction of the territory they claim.




www.abc.net.au

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## GTX (Today at 12:59 PM)

'General Armageddon' replaced as Ukraine war leader in sign of Russia's growing desperation


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## GTX (Today at 1:01 PM)

UK and Poland confirm plans to send modern heavy tanks to Ukraine:






Subscribe to read | Financial Times


News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




www.ft.com


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## DerAdlerIstGelandet (Today at 1:03 PM)

GTX said:


> Most definitely. Anyone interested in the history of English language should read this:
> 
> View attachment 702256


 
Let’s not forget the English language is classified as a Germanic language.

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## GTX (Today at 1:03 PM)

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:


> Let’s not forget the English language is classified as a Germanic language.


The book in question goes well beyond that


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## RogerdeLluria (Today at 1:09 PM)

Glider said:


> If anyone has any shares in Swiss weapons manufacturers, I suggest you sell them now because no country is going to buy anything else from them.



I'm afraid I'm too busy trying to sell my shares of Russian weapons manufacturers.

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## GTX (Today at 1:12 PM)

Putin changes Ukraine action leader, calls for quicker aircraft deals


Russia’s Defence Ministry said that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, named the new commander of the unified group of forces in Ukraine.




world-defence.com


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## GTX (Today at 1:16 PM)




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## Escuadrilla Azul (Today at 1:19 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> America should renege on the sale of F-35s to them, then.


At least put the deal in the backburner and speed others before them.

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## Glider (Today at 1:21 PM)

GTX said:


> Putin changes Ukraine action leader, calls for quicker aircraft deals
> 
> 
> Russia’s Defence Ministry said that Gen. Valery Gerasimov, named the new commander of the unified group of forces in Ukraine.
> ...


Do you think that anyone is brave enough to tell him that signing a contract is one thing. Finding the money to pay for it is another. Getting the technology together is a third and finally training the pilots to fly them is another.

I admit I wouldn't

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## Escuadrilla Azul (Today at 1:22 PM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> Speaking of blocking arms for Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Spain should sent the arms anyway and tell the swiss to go and f•ck themselves.

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## GTX (Today at 1:23 PM)



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## GTX (Today at 1:23 PM)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Spain should sent the arms anyway and tell the swiss to go and f•ck themselves.


Doesn't work if Spain still wants ongoing support from the Swiss.


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## GTX (Today at 1:24 PM)



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## Escuadrilla Azul (Today at 1:25 PM)

GTX said:


> Doesn't work if Spain still wants ongoing support from the Swiss.


Time to dicht unfriendly friends. Next time could be you and they will lend no hand.


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## GTX (Today at 1:25 PM)



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## Frog (Today at 1:29 PM)

Admiral Beez said:


> We're like the Borg, you come to us, be it Vikings, Romans, Saxons, Pakistanis, Ugandans, Albanians, etc. we will assimilate you. Resistance is futile.



Contrarily to the common belief, the King of England is not Duke of Normandy.
As all Normans know, the Duke of Normandy is King of England.

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## GTX (Today at 1:30 PM)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Time to dicht unfriendly friends. Next time could be you and they will lend no hand.


And if Spain wants things like spares?


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## GTX (Today at 1:31 PM)

Speaking of the Spanish items blocked, I suspect they are either the Oerlikon-Contraves GDF-005 35/90 35 mm Anti-aircraft systems or the ammunition for.


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## GTX (Today at 1:32 PM)




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## GrauGeist (Today at 1:34 PM)

Considering that the amount of Swiss made equipment in Spanish service is small compared to he number of equipment purchased from other countries, I say go for it, send the gear to Ukraine anyway.

What's Switzerland going to do, go to Ukraine and take it back?

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## RogerdeLluria (Today at 1:36 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> The article didn't say what the equipment was, but checking equipment made by Switzerland finds that Spain has several Swiss made AFVs: Piranha III and Piranha V - Spain also is a user of Swiss made shouldered weapons, too.



I'll add as plausible the Oerlikon 35 mm twin cannon towed anti-aircraft gun.
Or maybe just the 35 mm ammo to be used by the Ukrainian guepards.


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## GTX (Today at 1:38 PM)

RogerdeLluria said:


> I'll add as plausible the Oerlikon 35 mm twin cannon towed anti-aircraft gun.
> Or maybe just the 35 mm ammo to be used by the Ukrainian guepards.


Agreed


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## Glider (Today at 1:41 PM)

GTX said:


>



It looks like a good piece of kit but to be honest, there were t many 'If's' for my comfort


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## Crimea_River (Today at 1:41 PM)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-purchase-missile-system-1.6709115



Canada buying Patriots for Ukraine. I'm guessing they should arrive in, oh I don't know, 2034.

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## RogerdeLluria (Today at 1:42 PM)

GTX said:


> Speaking of the Spanish items blocked, I suspect they are either the Oerlikon-Contraves GDF-005 35/90 35 mm Anti-aircraft systems or the ammunition for.


You beat me there. Although it was upgraded to GDF-007 in 2003-2006 to fire AHEAD ammo.
If I had to bet, it's probably the old (non AHEAD) 35 mm ammo that Spain is trying to send.


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## GTX (Today at 2:01 PM)



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## Greg Boeser (Today at 2:02 PM)

GTX said:


> 'General Armageddon' replaced as Ukraine war leader in sign of Russia's growing desperation


I think Putin should take personal charge, lead from the front. If that doesn't inspire, seeing your commander-in-chief riding bare-chested into battle, I don't know what will.

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## GTX (Today at 2:05 PM)



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## Thumpalumpacus (Today at 2:37 PM)

GTX said:


> 'General Armageddon' replaced as Ukraine war leader in sign of Russia's growing desperation



From your linked article:

_While the wording was deliberately both vague and optimistic, it has been seen by Russian watchers as an obvious demotion for Surovikin – and a sign of Vladimir Putin’s increasing anxiety over the stalling invasion, which has been raging since February 2022.

Speaking to CNN about the reshuffle, Mark Galeotti, senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, said Gerasimov had been handed “the most poisoned of chalices. It’s now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again”._

Aside from the obvious demotion of Surovkin, I believe this could also be an attempt to throw the Russian MoD under the bus for what appears to be a looming failure, in order to separate Putin from the great mistake he's made ... i.e., _the blame is not in the decision, but how the MoD executed it. _In short, it's insulation.

This has been a trend over the last three months at any rate, once the defeats on the eastern and southern fronts landed home. If their projected winter offensive goes bad, now it's Gerasimov himself on the hook, rather than Putin, is how I read it. It goes without saying that I could be reading it wrongly.

Gerasimov may want to avoid buildings with more than one floor for a while.


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## Thumpalumpacus (55 minutes ago)

Escuadrilla Azul said:


> Time to dicht unfriendly friends. Next time could be you and they will lend no hand.



The Swiss make these decisions with the luxury of knowing they're surrounded by friendly, non-aggressive countries. They know they won't be invaded. The only answer is to force them to supply themselves.

It's easy to take a hard stand when you know it's not your ass on the line.

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