# US guarantees Taiwan security. Now what?



## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

The ambiguity is gone, replaced by a defacto security guarantee of Taiwan.



Biden: US would intervene with military to defend Taiwan



So, now what? Will the USN move a CBG or ARG to Taiwan?


----------



## pgeno71 (May 25, 2022)

Ambiguity restored... that's all I'll say.

After Biden's Taiwan remarks make waves, Austin reiterates US policy hasn't changed - Breaking Defense


----------



## ThomasP (May 25, 2022)

Not really any ambiguity. Every time China has indulged any serious saber rattling about Taiwan the US has deployed a carrier group and/or other significant naval assets to the area. The implication was clear that we would take military action if China attacked Taiwan. China knows this. The only difference now is Biden just transmitted it in the clear.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Not really any ambiguity. Every time China has indulged any serious saber rattling about Taiwan the US has deployed a carrier group and/or other significant naval assets to the area. The implication was clear that we would take military action if China attacked Taiwan. China knows this. The only difference now is Biden just transmitted it in the clear.


True, but it’s not exactly the same as Japan or South Korea where the US maintains a garrison. Now that would settle the ambiguity.


----------



## Shinpachi (May 25, 2022)

Taiwanese are disappointed with the current Ukraine situation as it has turned out that the western support means their own sacrifice for the western benefits. Taiwan will be absorbed into China by negotiation someday. Chinese don't hurry for the result.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
3 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Admiral Beez (May 25, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> Taiwanese are disappointed with the current Ukraine situation as it has turned out that the western support means their own sacrifice for the western benefits. Taiwan will be absorbed into China by negotiation someday. Chinese don't hurry for the result.


In the absence of a defence pact like NATO, the West expects Taiwan to fight for themselves and will support them materially. That sounds pretty fair to me. 

One day China will liberalize, the next day Taiwan will want to join up. That day won't come though until at least the 2050s.


----------



## Shinpachi (May 25, 2022)

You can't write a story for them, Admiral, as they will write it by themselves.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Agree Agree:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## soulezoo (May 27, 2022)

On the Taiwan/China subject, this morning it was reported that the China plan for invasion was leaked and it contained all the details of #of ships, troops, airfields, gas stations and etc. right down to how many blood stations would be required.

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (May 27, 2022)

Their "leaking" is intentional propaganda like iPhone new model.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (May 27, 2022)

soulezoo said:


> On the Taiwan/China subject, this morning it was reported that the China plan for invasion was leaked and it contained all the details of #of ships, troops, airfields, gas stations and etc. right down to how many blood stations would be required.



Do you have a link to the article reporting this?


----------



## Dimlee (May 28, 2022)

Taiwanese volunteer in Ukraine.








Video shows Taiwanese soldier serving in Ukraine's foreign legion | Taiwan News | 2022-05-25 17:34:00


Soldier can be seen holding up Taiwanese flag, declaring 'Slava Ukraini' | 2022-05-25 17:34:00




www.taiwannews.com.tw

Reactions: Bacon Bacon:
1 | Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 28, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> You can't write a story for them, Admiral, as they will write it by themselves.


That is the way it should be, but as in so many instances the USA want's to be the author.


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (May 28, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> That is the way it should be, but as in so many instances the USA want's to be the author.



In the case of Taiwan, America has historically practiced ambiguity since the Nixon rapprochement with Beijing, so I'm not sure this is relevant. We've sold the Taiwanese weapons but until he last few months avoided direct statements of military support. It's now open that we had SpecOps troops there, a hundred or so.

And polling shows a solid support for independence from PRC.

Do you have any data on Taiwanese polling to support your point?

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 28, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> In the case of Taiwan, America has historically practiced ambiguity since the Nixon rapprochement with Beijing, so I'm not sure this is relevant. We've sold the Taiwanese weapons but until he last few months avoided direct statements of military support. It's now open that we had SpecOps troops there, a hundred or so.
> 
> And polling shows a solid support for independence from PRC.
> 
> Do you have any data on Taiwanese polling to support your point?


Biden's last statement is in clear breach of the existing China-US treaties and agreements, and it comes at a time where there is absolutely no proof of China preparing to attack Taiwan.

Since Taipei is governed by a multi-party system - they have elections and changing agendas all the time - presently the ruling party is eying with independence. (And the USA has been doing it's utmost to cause, aggravate and exploit this situation).
Everyone especially the Taiwanese population is aware that an attempt towards independence will not be tolerated by China - in the worst case it means war.
And independent of polling's towards independence (simply showing a present state of mood or conviction), going to war about it, is a totally different issue.

Maybe you want to show me your source that shows a majority of Taiwanese opting for war.

Just as a side info: I have been living almost 40 years in Asia and since 1998 in China with lot's of Taiwanese, Chinese and Japanese friends and acquaintances.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (May 29, 2022)

Even Okinawa wants to be independent.
Point will be realistic or not.

Immediately before the meeting of Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture, "I'm Zelensky."








Immediately before the meeting of Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture, "I'm Zelensky."


[NHK] Governor Tamaki of Okinawa Prefecture said, "I'm Zelensky," just before the meeting of experts on the base issue began, and then "it was a careless remark."




 www.tellerreport.com

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## Dimlee (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Do you have a link to the article reporting this?


This leak, probably.








Alarming Footage, Leaked Audio Exposes China's 'Ground Strike Plan' To Attack & Gobble Taiwan - Watch


China has recently published alarming footage of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) landing operation drills, increasing speculations that President Xi Jinping is prepping his military to annex Taiwan. The ‘Big Battle’ Of Howitzers: Russia Says Its Giatsint-S Heavy Artillery Gun Is ‘Wiping...




eurasiantimes.com












Explosive audio leak details China’s plan to invade Taiwan - Indianarrative


<p> An unprecedented and explosive audio leak of a top-secret meeting of the People’s Liberation Army has revealed China’s detailed plan to attack Taiwan.</p> <p> Experts say that the audio clip posted on the YouTube channel of Lude media appears authentic. This will be the first time since the...




www.indianarrative.com




Can be intentional, as Shinpachi suggested.
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak." (Sun Tzu).

Reactions: Bacon Bacon:
1 | Like Like:
3 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Maybe you want to show me your source that shows a majority of Taiwanese opting for war.



I didn't claim the majority of Taiwanese favored war. I said they favored independence, which renders your question here a straw-manning of my point. I feel no need to prove your misunderstood version of my point.

I wrote that they preferred independence.



Jagdflieger said:


> Biden's last statement is in clear breach of the existing China-US treaties and agreements, and it comes at a time where there is absolutely no proof of China preparing to attack Taiwan.
> 
> Since Taipei is governed by a multi-party system - they have elections and changing agendas all the time - presently the ruling party is eying with independence. (And the USA has been doing it's utmost to cause, aggravate and exploit this situation).
> Everyone especially the Taiwanese population is aware that an attempt towards independence will not be tolerated by China - in the worst case it means war.
> ...





I did ask you first, and generally blowing off questions is rude. It's not the first time you've done that with me, as well. But I'll play along just to call your hand:

The link you quoted above which shows that 60% of Taiwanese oppose closer political relations with Beijing, This obviously means that support for reunification is in the minority -- since reunification is clearly a matter of closer relations.

[ETA: There's also this report from the _Taipei Times:_

Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.

However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.

The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.[/i]

Now, whatcha got?

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> .....However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.
> 
> The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.[/i]


What's your point?
I did say that the present Taipei government is in favor of independence, I also said that present polls reflect a present mood and conviction and due to Taiwan having a multi-party system, that has and is changing it's policies after every new government takeover-so does the peoples mood and conviction.
As for those media-polls I leave it up to you what weight you want to attribute towards them - especially in regards of willing to go to war.

My point is:

The USA has signed off onto the one country 2 systems policy - which is exactly the present case in regards to China and its province of Taiwan. So for the USA to instigate and actively promote/support separatism and additionally propagating anti-China sentiments in the world by spreading falsehood about China in general only demonstrates plain dishonesty and a warmongering attitude.

So tell me what serves the people on Taiwan better? - to keep the existing policy which provides/garuantees for their own independent governmental administration and democratic rights and livelihood, or to loose all this plus their own lives because of a war which the USA is trying it's best at to instigate?


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> What's your point?



My point is that the Taiwanese public opinion is not in favor of reunification -- which is what you in fact asked me to support, so I did. Why did you ask me to support a point if you didn't know that point? Indeed, you misrepresented it at first.



Jagdflieger said:


> My point is:
> 
> The USA has signed off onto the one country 2 systems policy - which is exactly the present case in regards to China and its province of Taiwan. So for the USA to instigate and actively promote/support separatism and additionally propagating anti-China sentiments in the world by spreading falsehood about China in general only demonstrates plain dishonesty and a warmongering attitude.



Is America actively supporting separatism?

As for "falsehoods about China", could you be specific? What lies is America spreading?

Link your sources. 



Jagdflieger said:


> So tell me what serves the people on Taiwan better? - to keep the existing policy which provides/garuantees for their own independent governmental administration and democratic rights and livelihood, or to loose all this plus their own lives because of a war which the USA is trying it's best at to instigate?



Again, I don't see America trying to instigate a war. Indeed, I see China building a force-structure specifically designed to attack Taiwan and at the same time deny any aid coming to the island. Whether we're talking about the artificial bases followed by sovereign-water claims, or A2/AD missiles, or the continual and escalating probes of Taiwan's airspace, it looks to me like China is at least as aggressive as you claim America is -- yet you're oddly silent about that.

As for what serves the Taiwanese better, I'll go with their own self-determination. If they prefer fighting and dying for their freedom, that's their decision to make.

I'm sure the Chinese will give them that, just as they did Hong Kong <snort>

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 29, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> My point is that the Taiwanese public opinion is not in favor of reunification -- which is what you in fact asked me to support, so I did. Why did you ask me to support a point if you didn't know that point? Indeed, you misrepresented it at first.


Yes we all know that is presently the case - so why do try to keep making a point out of it?


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Is America actively supporting separatism?


Everytime the USA is sending a high ranking politician to Taiwan - it belongs to China, so no outsider politician has a right to even go there (not even to mention spreading support towards segregation) - other then invited by Beijing. Look at the USA or Australia's reaction towards the e.g. China's Confucius institutes in those countries.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> As for "falsehoods about China", could you be specific? What lies is America spreading?
> 
> Link your sources.


You really that naive? or you just want to play games? for my part I am not interested in such games.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> Again, I don't see America trying to instigate a war. Indeed,


That is because you don't want to see it. - e.g. the USA declaring military action and support towards a separatist movement in another country.
In other words - Taipei go for independence if China attacks you we will come in. That is not just inciting a war, that is actually asking for one.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> I see China building a force-structure specifically designed to attack Taiwan and at the same time deny any aid coming to the island. Whether we're talking about the artificial bases followed by sovereign-water claims, or A2/AD missiles, or the continual and escalating probes of Taiwan's airspace, it looks to me like China is at least as aggressive as you claim America is -- yet you're oddly silent about that.


So the USA sending military aircraft and spy-planes into other countries airspace is different? China is not allowed to have an amphibious force to protect their outlying territories?
China's expansion into the South-China-Sea? - it is the result of colonial policies conducted by foreign powers in the last 400 years.


Thumpalumpacus said:


> As for what serves the Taiwanese better, I'll go with their own self-determination. If they prefer fighting and dying for their freedom, that's their decision to make.


Silly statement - no one is willing to die for freedom other then a minority of fanatics and politician talking and inciting bullocks.
But I do understand your mindset - which would include that you will go with the Palestinian self-determination and fight against Israel and their prime supporter USA


Thumpalumpacus said:


> I'm sure the Chinese will give them that, just as they did Hong Kong <snort>


You don't seem to understand the fundamental difference between HK (a former colony-obtained via open threat of force) being returned to China and Taiwan being an existing province of China with it's own elected democracy, administration and security forces.


----------



## DerAdlerIstGelandet (May 29, 2022)

Sigh…

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (May 29, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Yes we all know that is presently the case - so why do try to keep making a point out of it?



You _did_ ask me what my point was, so out of courtesy I repeated it for you. If you don't want me to repeat myself, stop asking me to repeat myself. It's that easy.



Jagdflieger said:


> Everytime the USA is sending a high ranking politician to Taiwan - it belongs to China, so no outsider politician has a right to even go there (not even to mention spreading support towards segregation) - other then invited by Beijing. Look at the USA or Australia's reaction towards the e.g. China's Confucius institutes in those countries.



I don't think the Taiwanese think their island belongs to China. You're assuming the Beijing premise of the point, rather than considering how the Taiwanese feel about their own circumstances.



Jagdflieger said:


> You really that naive? or you just want to play games? for my part I am not interested in such games.



If you think I'm that naive, perhaps you should try to educate me.



Jagdflieger said:


> That is because you don't want to see it. - e.g. the USA declaring military action and support towards a separatist movement in another country.
> In other words - Taipei go for independence if China attacks you we will come in. That is not just inciting a war, that is actually asking for one.



I don't agree. We're not telling Taipei to go for independence.



Jagdflieger said:


> So the USA sending military aircraft and spy-planes into other countries airspace is different? China is not allowed to have an amphibious force to protect their outlying territories?
> China's expansion into the South-China-Sea? - it is the result of colonial policies conducted by foreign powers in the last 400 years.



Firstly, they're not only building islands, they're doing so and then declaring a 200-mile national boundary around them. Not sure why you'd overlook that point. Secondly, they haven't been building islands for four centuries, so that too is nugatory.

As far as what they're "allowed" to have, they're obviously allowed to have anything they want and can build. But other nations are equally allowed to judge the nature and intent of those weapons systems/policies and draw conclusions.



Jagdflieger said:


> Silly statement - no one is willing to die for freedom other then a minority of fanatics and politician talking and inciting bullocks.
> But I do understand your mindset - which would include that you will go with the Palestinian self-determination and fight against Israel and their prime supporter USA



I don't have a dog in that fight, so no, you've guessed wrong.



Jagdflieger said:


> You don't seem to understand the fundamental difference between HK (a former colony-obtained via open threat of force) being returned to China and Taiwan being an existing province of China with it's own elected democracy, administration and security forces.



lol, you'd better ask the Taiwanese. Their opinion matters more than yours so far as I'm concerned.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (May 30, 2022)

Taipei still holds 90% precious treasure of the forbidden city as R.O.C - the proper successor of Qin dynasty.
This guarantees Taiwan's security.

National Palace Museum in Taipei





Source: 国立故宮博物院 - Wikipedia

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 30, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> Taipei still holds 90% precious treasure of the forbidden city as R.O.C - the proper successor of Qin dynasty.
> This guarantees Taiwan's security.
> 
> National Palace Museum in Taipei
> ...


Since there was never a public general election conducted by the people throughout China, the ROC wasn't "proper" at all.

Maybe you should read up onto the Hubei provincial assembly to proclaim the establishment of the Chinese republic in 1911 and the ongoing issues including the April 12th Incident of 1927.
On* Oct. 25, 1971*, the United Nations General Assembly voted to admit the People's Republic of China (mainland China) and to expel the Republic of China (Taiwan). The Communist P.R.C. therefore assumed the R.O.C.'s place in the General Assembly as well as its place as one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

Therefore the PRC is undoubtedly a UN recognized state.
Has the UN recognized Taiwan as an independent state? - NO 

And how some artifacts are supposed to guarantee Taiwan's security - maybe you want to elaborate more onto this?


----------



## ThomasP (May 30, 2022)

Hey Jagdflieger,

Does not your argument above mean that the Dontsk/Dombass/Luhansk and Crimea still belong to Ukraine? ie:

There was never a Ukraine wide general election that agreed these areas are independent?

The UN has not recognized them as independent?

Hence Russia is acting illegally in those areas? (I think we can ignore the current invasion of (all?) Ukraine for this part of the discussion.)

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## ThomasP (May 30, 2022)

accidental post


----------



## Shinpachi (May 30, 2022)

Jagdflieger said:


> Since there was never a public general election conducted by the people throughout China, the ROC wasn't "proper" at all.
> 
> Maybe you should read up onto the Hubei provincial assembly to proclaim the establishment of the Chinese republic in 1911 and the ongoing issues including the April 12th Incident of 1927.
> On* Oct. 25, 1971*, the United Nations General Assembly voted to admit the People's Republic of China (mainland China) and to expel the Republic of China (Taiwan). The Communist P.R.C. therefore assumed the R.O.C.'s place in the General Assembly as well as its place as one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
> ...


Interesting perspective, jagdflieger. Were Chinese dynasties in the history decided by election? General election is a western idea introduced to Asia in the 19th century but it is not almighty in Asia yet. Even in such a stituation, PRC is a proper successor of ROC, not the Qin dynasty.
ROC is merely a ghost in the international society as it still exists.


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 30, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> Interesting perspective, jagdflieger. Were Chinese dynasties in the history decided by election? General election is a western idea introduced to Asia in the 19th century but it is not almighty in Asia yet. Even in such a stituation, PRC is a proper successor of ROC, not the Qin dynasty.
> ROC is merely a ghost in the international society as it still exists.


It depends onto ones interpretation of the term "proper", and from 1927 until 1948 (The Kuomintang (KMT), ruled China from 1927 to 1948 before it moved to the island of Taiwan) there was never a general public election. (which would be the 20th century) however you are certainly correct that the ROC in 1912 was the legal successor of the Qing Dynasty and as such also internationally recognized.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Jagdflieger (May 30, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Hey Jagdflieger,
> 
> Does not your argument above mean that the Dontsk/Dombass/Luhansk and Crimea still belong to Ukraine? ie:


Upon the dissolution of the Soviet-union, Ukraine, Belarus and Russia signed the Alma-Ata Deceleration - forming the Commonwealth aka CIS.
Main issue was the neutrality among each other and a joint military command - the rest I had already written.

Therefore Jelzin did not object towards the boundaries of the Ukraine (that were entirely based onto Soviet design and incl. the "present/gift" Crimea
And as such the UN also recognized Ukraine as a sovereign state with the borders of the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine. I am too lazy now to recheck, but IIRC the Soviet Republic of Ukraine was already a UN member state in the 50'ies.

Ukraine broke the Alma-Ata agreement by including into it's foreign policy statement the political aim to join NATO - a breach towards neutrality.
Russia claims that Kiew suppressed the Russian speaking population of Donbass etc. in parallel Russian/Ukrainian separatists declared those provinces as independent republics which was supported by Putin but rejected by Ukraine and the UN. Due to Ukraine's breach of the Alma-Alta-Declaration Putin forwarded that the Crimea which was given as a gift did not constitute an original part of the Soviet Republic Ukraine and therefore decided to occupy/reclaim it in 2014.
Then Ukraine Armed Forces and separatist Militias started murdering and killing each other - giving Putin a reason to send in Russian troops.

I would think that the rest is known....


----------



## soulezoo (May 31, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> This leak, probably.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, this leak is what I was referring to earlier. I saw it in a couple of other sources, but those two seem to be the same.

Reactions: Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Jun 8, 2022)

Taipei Times dated June 3.

"RIMPAC SNUB: Taiwan was left out of the joint military drills to be held at the end of this month, despite the US having said that an invitation could bolster US security strategy"









Tsai inspects Taoyuan troops, weapons - Taipei Times


Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan




www.taipeitimes.com

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Jun 25, 2022)

Taiwan boy discloses PLA base map for Google Earth which covers 1,354 bases.





Source: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...Tq&ll=26.52538401071175,106.0123712143118&z=4

Reactions: Winner Winner:
1 | Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## Dimlee (Jun 26, 2022)

"The Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Taiwan."

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Jun 26, 2022)

Frighteningly informative.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## ThomasP (Jun 27, 2022)

Taiwan agreed (in mid-March) to a delay in armament deliveries from the US so that some materiel could be diverted to Ukraine.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Dimlee (Jun 28, 2022)

I would not be surprised if Taipei Representative Office appears in Ukraine. Actually, I'd welcome that.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Agree Agree:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Admiral Beez (Jul 25, 2022)

U.S. Officials Grow More Concerned About Potential Action by China on Taiwan
U.S. Officials Grow More Concerned About Potential Action by China on Taiwan

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 3, 2022)

Taiwan has been blocked by PLA vessels as Pelosi's keepsake.

"U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has caused dissatisfaction in China. In response, the CCP conducted military exercises in 6 waters around Taiwan from August 4 to 7, which is estimated to affect 18 air routes around the world passing through the Taipei FIR....."




Source: ETtoday Taiwan








快訊／解放軍軍演倒數　國防部、外交部官網癱瘓原因曝 | ETtoday政治新聞 | ETtoday新聞雲


中共解放軍邊宣布要在8月4日12點到7日12點，將在台灣島周邊進行重要軍事演訓行動。沒想到，國防部、外交部的官方網站於3日深夜驚傳被駭癱瘓，完全無法連線進入，截至4日凌晨0時15分仍處於癱瘓狀態。至於是不是被駭客攻擊？國防部稍早表示，正在查修具體故障原因。




www.ettoday.net

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 3, 2022)

That’s rather disturbing.


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 3, 2022)

This will be a slow but big earthquake in Asia because Chinese action was/is always slow.
Too late to be back now anyway.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 6, 2022)

China's Wang ignores Japan's Hayashi on Taiwan issue at the meeting of foreign ministers held in Cambodia on August 5. To tell the truth, they are very good friends for many years.






Source: ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_a2sjYRvu0

Reactions: Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 7, 2022)

'Absolutely unacceptable': China warns Australia against involvement with Taiwan


China's embassy has taken aim at Australia, the United States and Japan, accusing them of "finger pointing" amid growing tensions with Taiwan.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 7, 2022)

GTX said:


> 'Absolutely unacceptable': China warns Australia against involvement with Taiwan
> 
> 
> China's embassy has taken aim at Australia, the United States and Japan, accusing them of "finger pointing" amid growing tensions with Taiwan.
> ...



China is trying to split both Australia and Canada off from their shared duties patrolling the Western Pacific, is my understanding of events.


----------



## Admiral Beez (Aug 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> China is trying to split both Australia and Canada off from their shared duties patrolling the Western Pacific, is my understanding of events.


It really is time for us in the West to stop using China as our inflationary backstop via cheap consumer goods.

Reactions: Bacon Bacon:
1 | Agree Agree:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> It really is time for us in the West to stop using China as our inflationary backstop via cheap consumer goods.



I agree, feeding crocodiles is rarely a good idea.


----------



## Admiral Beez (Aug 7, 2022)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> China is trying to split both Australia and Canada off from their shared duties patrolling the Western Pacific, is my understanding of events.


An aggressive China is the one thing proponents of an expanded Pacific focus for the RCN need. I’d like to see Canada join AUKUS, but we’ll need to show we’re serious. A new SSK program would be a good start.






Another Canadian Submarine Program: Some Useful Lessons of History – Canadian Naval Review


Apollo, 6 August 2021 So, the RCN is going to put itself through the submarine acquisition wringer again. Unfortunately, there is a sad history of such programs over the last 70 years; most of which, if not all, follow the same tedious pattern from which many lessons can still be learned.




www.navalreview.ca





Would that become CAUKUS? Or, since Canada is a junior partner, USUKAC…. Do you now?

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 7, 2022)

Admiral Beez said:


> An aggressive China is the one thing proponents of an expanded Pacific focus for the RCN need. I’d like to see Canada join AUKUS, but we’ll need to show we’re serious. Would that become CAUKUS, nor since Canada is a junior partner, USUKAC…. Do you now?



As an American, I appreciate all good allies, and hope the situation in Ukraine and the recent interactions with the Chinese spur more involvement. The Chinese are naturally trying to whittle away any allies America, Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea have.

I believe they see Australia and Canada as junior partners (rightly or wrongly, I'm not falling on either side of the argument) and are trying to push them off first. Take out the smaller partner before attacking the big bull, you know? There's an advantage, in that approach, in both whittling opposing numbers, and also inflicting angst on an America that now sees less support if this approach succeeds.

I would love to see Canada join a CAUKAUS designed to aid and support Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Y'all could do great maritime patrol, I bet, given history, experience, and resource allocations. And that matters ... which is why China is trying to bully y'all.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 8, 2022)

Let's get raucous for CAUKAUS! AUKUS does sound like something a parrot would shriek.

Reactions: Funny Funny:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 8, 2022)

'A storm is gathering': China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan


A Chinese state television commentator says its military will now conduct "regular" drills on the Taiwan side of the median line.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

After a humiliating week, Xi Jinping spruiks '10 breakthroughs' with Taiwan. All push the region closer to war


There's little sign from Beijing that it can woo the hearts and minds of Taiwan's 23 million people, if it is still intent on peacefully seizing control of them, writes Bill Birtles.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 9, 2022)

Why Xi Jinping's China is unlikely to invade Taiwan — for now


China's economic and social problems have been growing in recent months, and Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan gave Beijing an opportunity to divert the public's attention, writes Bang Xiao.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 10, 2022)

'No room for compromise': Chinese ambassador issues firm statement on future of Taiwan


The Chinese ambassador to Australia uses a National Press Club address to stand firm on Taiwan, saying there is no room for compromise, but he is hopeful about mending ties with Canberra.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

I'm concerned about these drills. Repetitive drills from all directions might eventually dull the edge of Taiwan's defenders and one day, it ain't a drill. If the attack is sudden, they might actually succeed in getting some forces ashore. Their navy got a crapload of anti-ship missile chuckers which could do grievous harm to Allied forces. I'm sure the Chinese forces are a bit more dedicated and trained than their Russian BFFs.


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I'm concerned about these drills. Repetitive drills from all directions might eventually dull the edge of Taiwan's defenders and one day, it ain't a drill. If the attack is sudden, they might actually succeed in getting some forces ashore. Their navy got a crapload of anti-ship missile chuckers which could do grievous harm to Allied forces. I'm sure the Chinese forces are a bit more dedicated and trained than their Russian BFFs.



Something tells me that after the last six months the Taiwanese are not going to get complacent.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

I hope so. I would have preferred a bunch of lengthy, well thought and cold hard factual reassuring posts would've been forthcoming, though.


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Aug 10, 2022)

SaparotRob said:


> I hope so. I would have preferred a bunch of lengthy, well thought and cold hard factual reassuring posts would've been forthcoming, though.



I'll look up some links for you tomorrow between cutting up a chicken salad. I'm a little burnt tonight.  Just remember, a little salt-water goes a long ways.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 10, 2022)

I feel better already!


----------



## ThomasP (Aug 11, 2022)

Taiwan
Land Area_______________13,976 square miles
Population_______________23,906,450
Standing Armed Forces______165,000 total
____________________________ 88,000 Ground
Reserve/National Guard____1,655,000 (mostly Ground)

If Taiwan was willing to fight:

It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).

Taiwan has no oil production to speak of, and would be blockaded by China in the initial operations - so a war fought by Taiwan alone would be won or lost with what fuel supply Taiwan started with.

In effect, if Taiwan was willing to fight (alone) as prolonged a war as they had supply for, China would conquer an island about 33% bigger than Crimea with half of the island looking something like the destroyed cities in Ukraine.

Note the populated areas in this night time satellite image:





However, the US, Japan, and Australia, have all indicated that they would support Taiwan in event of war with China.

If China was willing to fight:

It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.

However, as in Ukraine, it would be possible to create a situation where China faces a Pyrrhic victory.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Useful Useful:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 11, 2022)

Interesting to know what/if based on the western style war philosophy.
Better remember why Koreans surrendered to Japanese without fighting in 1910.
People in the continent tend to hate bloodshed more than islanders. They do love shouting instead.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## ThomasP (Aug 11, 2022)

I hope that China is just "shouting". I hope we are correct in our(?) belief.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 11, 2022)

If Xi had been so serious about invading Taiwan as he warned Pelosi in advance, he would have occupied the small island of Quemoy as his first step toward re-unification of Taiwan but I understood that this was my thought influenced by the western war philosophy which relies on force. Xi has proved himself nobody but a typical Chinese who does not think re-unification of Taiwan by force.

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 11, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> It would be pretty much impossible to invade Taiwan using amphibious forces without first destroying their Air Force (which China could do relatively easily) and Navy (also relatively easily) and eliminating most of their Ground Forces (which would be almost impossible without a very prolonged campaign similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine - ie destroying the infrastructure and hoping to reduce the will to fight).


Agreed. I expect that the Chinese strategy is:

Exert enough pressure both directly and indirectly to avoid the fight in the first place.
If Option 1 doesn't work, plan for blockade . This will not be a instant result but they should be able to contain the Taiwanese forces. It also will force the west to either put up or shut up - will the US and its allies try to break the blockade? If they do there will be potentially a bloody Air/Sea confrontation: 
If the US etc comes of the better for this then the Chinese are forced to backdown with possible consequences for Xi Jinping as the CCP turns on him;
If the Chinese come off better and bloody the US etc badly then there is a new 'top dog' in the world and we will see a radical change. Most immediately Taiwan will find themselves isolated and either accept the new reality and welcome their new overlords or go down fighting. It would only be at this stage that a invasion of sorts would occur but the Taiwanese would have to know that they are on their own. 

I fear (and I hope I'm wrong), that China has more options here:

If they win without a battle (option 1 above) they win overall
If they have a blockade and the US etc don't force the issue then they win - this also would have other repercussions as others question if the US etc will support them in the future as well
If they have the blockade and battle and win, they win again and we have a new top dog
If they have the blockade and battle and lose, then they lose and we will see what results.
So basically a 75% weighting in China's favour. now I know it is a bit more complex than this but this is just how I boil it down. If you want a more detailed analysis, may I suggest a read of the following:









ThomasP said:


> It is questionable whether the US/Japan/Australia Air and Naval Forces could prevent an effective blockade without destroying the majority of the Chinese Air and Naval Forces. The Chinese blue water Navy would be relatively easy to destroy, but the Coastal Forces would be a problem due to support from land-based Air (there is no part of Taiwan more than 250 miles from the Chinese coast). Destruction of the Chinese Air Forces would be problematic - it could be done but not without a full scale war between the US and China that involved the destruction of military targets at significant distances inshore.


The above mentioned potential blockade breaking battle gets especially dicey even without factoring in nuclear weapons. The Chinese naval and air capability is building every day. Add to this mainland launched ballistic missiles and things won't be easy for the US and its allies. I'm not saying that things are a foregone conclusion but the 'maths' isn't one-sided by far. 

The blockade is the key thing here and in some respects this is a replay of what the Imperial Japanese hoped for in WWII - a major naval confrontation that would decide things in one battle. Remember also that for Taiwan this isn't the same as the Ukraine - there is no land border allowing for resupply of new weapons/munitions. If Taiwan is isolated by blockade the only way to resupply is by forcing the issue.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Winner Winner:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 15, 2022)

Taiwan's capacity to confront China is not the same as Ukraine's with Russia


Strategic ambiguity has worked as a deterrence against Beijing's ambitions in Taiwan for 40 years because China was too weak to take Taiwan by force and lacked global economic clout. But all that has changed and a dangerous situation awaits, writes Mick Ryan.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 15, 2022)

This is my Taiwanese friend's recent opinion.
"The US is using Taiwan to take advantage in the ongoing US-China confrontation. This is OK but an issue for the Taiwanese people is that there is no intention and movement at the US side for the recognition of Taiwan as a state in the UN. Taiwan will be forgotten as ever again after the US-China shake hands."

Reactions: Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> This is my Taiwanese friend's recent opinion.
> "The US is using Taiwan to take advantage in the ongoing US-China confrontation. This is OK but an issue for the Taiwanese people is that there is no intention and movement at the US side for the recognition of Taiwan as a state in the UN. Taiwan will be forgotten as ever again after the US-China shake hands."


Quite possibly though things are different now I believe. That said, not recognising Taiwan:

Allows the likes of the US and others to avoid a direct antagonism to China when they are perhaps not ready, and
Allows a 'back door' escape if the blockade/invasion were to occur and the US etc calculated the risks were too high.
Not nice things to contemplate but no-one ever said the world was fair.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Useful Useful:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 16, 2022)

Another thing to consider with the recent events with US political figures visiting Taiwan and the resulting Chinese war games: The US would have known the sort of reaction the Chinese would take. This then presents a good opportunity for data gathering on latest Chinese capabilities etc.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Useful Useful:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 16, 2022)

As far as I have checked local news in Taiwan, people are tired of such a war game between US-China but more interested in a politician Lîm Tì-kian's suspicion of plagiarism scandal to accuse the Ts'ai administration. On the other hand, Japanese people are still interested in the Unification Church scandal ignited by Abe's disaster to accuse LDP. Chinese government warned their fishermen not to make trouble in Japanese EEZ near Senkaku. New SK president Yun is losing his popularity day by day as an amateur politician.

Reactions: Informative Informative:
4 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 18, 2022)

US to hold trade talks with Taiwan, potentially undermining China's role as biggest trade partner


The announcement came after Beijing held military drills that included firing missiles into the sea to intimidate Taiwan.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 23, 2022)

Why the next five years will be 'very dangerous' for Xi Jinping


Only taking Taiwan will cement Xi's place as a remarkable person in China's history, while failure to do so could make him vulnerable to retaliation from his inner-party rivals, writes Bang Xiao.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 26, 2022)

How China Could Choke Taiwan


China is honing its ability to blockade Taiwan, giving Beijing the option of cutting off the self-ruled island in its campaign to take control of it.



www.nytimes.com

Reactions: Informative Informative:
4 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 27, 2022)

Taiwanese guards intercept Chinese drone with stones in Quemoy this month.





Source: 中国軍ドローンが金門島に出現、台湾軍兵士の対応にネット民「絶望」―中国メディア ｜ レコードチャイナ

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Admiral Beez (Aug 30, 2022)

GTX said:


> Why the next five years will be 'very dangerous' for Xi Jinping
> 
> 
> Only taking Taiwan will cement Xi's place as a remarkable person in China's history, while failure to do so could make him vulnerable to retaliation from his inner-party rivals, writes Bang Xiao.
> ...


Same as Galteiri needing to take the Falklands.

Funny how no where China considered wooing Taiwan back.


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 30, 2022)

I know, right? Everything went so well with Hong Kong.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Aug 30, 2022)

Mao's policy against Chiang in 1949 when Chiang escaped to Taiwan was "Do not pursue a beaten or desperate enemy (穷寇勿追 qióng kòu wù zhuī)." Xi has inherited this naturally because the Thirty-Six Stratagems of ancient China teaches "Do not pursue your enemies or they will bite you. Wait till they lose fighting spirits and they will obey you (欲擒故縦 yù qín gù zòng)."

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
4 | Like List reactions


----------



## ThomasP (Aug 31, 2022)

Aside from the lack of saber-rattling/increased feeling of safety that might ensue, the only significant advantage that Taiwan would gain if they united with China is a reduction in their Military budget. The basic standard of living in Taiwan is considered good, with the only (I think) major exception being costs of buying/owning property (renting is still reasonable I have been told). The afore mentioned comments are somewhat relative, as Taiwan is a densely populated island, so keep it in mind that the comparison should be against the cost of living in densely populated areas in the US.

Reactions: Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Admiral Beez (Aug 31, 2022)

ThomasP said:


> Aside from the lack of saber-rattling/increased felling of safety that moght ensue, the only significant advantage that Taiwan would gain if they united with China is a reduction in their Military budget. The basic standard of living in Taiwan is considered good, with the only (I think) major exception being costs of buying/owning property (renting is still reasonable I have been told). The afore mentioned comments are somewhat relative, as Taiwan is a densely populated island, so keep it in mind that the comparison should be against the cost of living in densely populated areas in the US.


I spent a week in Kaohsiung and a few days in Taiwan back in 2018. It was great to see Chinese people living with democracy and economic freedom.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Agree Agree:
1 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 31, 2022)

Warning shots fired as China is accused of harassing Taiwan with drones


Taiwan fires warning shots at a Chinese drone buzzing an offshore islet after President Tsai Ing-wen orders Taiwan's military to take "strong countermeasures" against what she terms Chinese provocations.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Aug 31, 2022)

'Counterattack without exception': Taiwan ups rhetoric as more Chinese drones buzz islands


Taiwan says it will exercise its right to self-defence and counterattack if Chinese armed forces enter its territory, as Beijing increases military activities near the democratically governed island.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Aug 31, 2022)

Taiwan has an order for 500 HIMARS, right? Bet they get the GOOOD missiles for them up front.


----------



## Dimlee (Sep 1, 2022)

Shinpachi said:


> Mao's policy against Chiang in 1949 when Chiang escaped to Taiwan was "Do not pursue a beaten or desperate enemy (穷寇勿追 qióng kòu wù zhuī)." Xi has inherited this naturally because the Thirty-Six Stratagems of ancient China teaches "Do not pursue your enemies or they will bite you. Wait till they lose fighting spirits and they will obey you (欲擒故縦 yù qín gù zòng)."


A good reminder, thanks. I always wondered about the long-term intentions of the PRC in the first two Strait crises in the 1950s. Did Beijing plan to go further - beyond the group of small islands...

Reactions: Friendly Friendly:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)

Taiwan shoots down unidentified drone amid tensions with China


The defence command for Kinmen says the drone entered restricted air space over Lion Islet, with Taiwan's government earlier vowing to take tough new measures to deal with an increase in such intrusions into its air defence identification zone.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Sep 1, 2022)

Taiwan tycoon donates $47m to train 3 million 'civilian warriors' for defence against Chinese invasion


A Taiwanese businessman says he will donate $47 million to train more than 3 million "civilian warriors" to help defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Sep 1, 2022)

Xi must really be honked at Putler right now.


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 1, 2022)

Dimlee said:


> A good reminder, thanks. I always wondered about the long-term intentions of the PRC in the first two Strait crises in the 1950s. Did Beijing plan to go further - beyond the group of small islands...



It's always seemed clear to me that China would try to retake Taiwan long-term -- and preferably through peaceful means, by their own planning. But their abrogation of their agreement with Hong Kong has, I think, put the Taiwanese on notice that a peaceful resolution will still mean subjugation. In that sense, PRC has tipped its hand.

As an American, whose country has given support to Taiwan for many decades now, I think we have a moral obligation to support them if this issue should come to blows. I also think that we Americans should be willing to fight for democracies elsewhere, either by direct military support, or by supplies of weaponry and training as is the case with Ukraine. Even if we do not commit troops we can still be the arsenal of democracy.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Friendly Friendly:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GTX (Sep 2, 2022)

Taiwan says shooting down drone near Kinmen Islands was 'appropriate'


Taiwan's leader says Taipei has repeatedly complained of harassment from drones coming from China, as China accuses Taiwanese officials of increasing tensions.




www.abc.net.au

Reactions: Agree Agree:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Sep 19, 2022)

_
WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, his most explicit statement on the issue, drawing an angry response from China that said it sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.

Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast on Sunday whether U.S. forces would defend the democratically governed island claimed by China, he replied: "Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."


Asked to clarify if he meant that unlike in Ukraine, U.S. forces - American men and women - would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden replied: "Yes."_









Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion


U.S. President Joe Biden said U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, his most explicit statement on the issue, drawing an angry response from China that said it sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.




www.reuters.com

Reactions: Informative Informative:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Sep 19, 2022)

Strong earthquake hits southeastern Taiwan, building collapses

It hit twice during two days. People need immediate help.









Strong earthquake hits southeastern Taiwan, building collapses


At 6.8 magnitude, it derails train carriages and traps hundreds on mountain roads




asia.nikkei.com

Reactions: Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## Shinpachi (Yesterday at 12:16 AM)

War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militariesThis news is so sensational in Japan as the leading left-wing media stirs up risk with Biden.



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html#:~:text=A%20Chinese%20invasion%20of%20Taiwan,simulations%20of%20a%20possible%20conflict

Reactions: Informative Informative:
3 | Like List reactions


----------



## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 1:28 AM)

I was just reading an article about the simulations of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
There were several dozen results based on variables and in a few, yes, the USN did suffer significant losses, however, in each scenario, China lost - one of which showed China losing 90% of their surface naval assets at the cost of 10 USN submarines (out of 54).

The bulk of the scenarios played out were solely USN versus Chinese Navy. Once the USAF was factored into the situation, Chinese naval asset survivability became close to zero.

Reactions: Like Like:
2 | Informative Informative:
2 | Like List reactions


----------



## WAFU (Yesterday at 5:47 AM)

To paraphrase Secretary Lehmans famous comment to the Select Committee

'In a conformation with the United States Navy, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy would have a short, but very exciting war'

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Yesterday at 11:17 AM)

I was thinking about a U.S.-China conflict. The losses of U.S. CVNs in the scenario were troubling. The long lead time for new carriers and the loss of some flight decks had me wondering if the U.S. should semi-retire whichever CVNs are to be replaced instead of scrapping them. I know that those ships may have been ridden hard and put away wet. I can see a need for flight decks which can't be quickly replaced. I was thinking that those carriers due for replacement be kept in a "ready reserve", not necessarily with their own air groups. I view them as a kind of emergency airstrip. 
Running a carrier battle group around the 'Horn from the Atlantic or being forced to travel through other choke points would take a lot of time.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 12:06 PM)

The USN currently has eleven fleet carriers with another currently undergoing sea trials.
It also has nine smaller carriers (LHA/LHD) carriers in service with two in reserve.

China has two fleet carriers and three smaller carriers (LHD) in service.

The balance of USN submarines (all types) in service dwarfs China's fleet.

Factor in USAF assets and it becomes clear that China would not do well to provoke a response from the US.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Yesterday at 12:29 PM)

But if conflict does happen I believe we will lose a carrier or two. I think an F-35C might have problems landing on an LHA/LHD. Do those things even have arrestor cables? 
I agree that the U.S. has significant advantages over PLAN. Not expecting significant losses never seemed to work out that way historically. That’s why I think it would be prudent to have some emergency runways behind the fleet. A museum Essex just won’t cut it. 
I got conflicted about never underestimating your enemy and Russia’s dismal performance. I would make the same mistake twice and say that China is probably better than we think and we might not be as great as we think. 
Then again, if this does happen, nothing is getting scrapped.


----------



## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 12:56 PM)

The USN LHA/LHD carriers operate the AV-8 and F-35B aircraft.

The F-35C is operated from fleet carriers.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Yesterday at 1:02 PM)

That's why I'm thinking of back-up flight decks. If a CVN is lost her aircraft could use a friendly field. E-2s might also need a nice big flat spot.


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 1:31 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> I was thinking about a U.S.-China conflict. The losses of U.S. CVNs in the scenario were troubling. The long lead time for new carriers and the loss of some flight decks had me wondering if the U.S. should semi-retire whichever CVNs are to be replaced instead of scrapping them. I know that those ships may have been ridden hard and put away wet. I can see a need for flight decks which can't be quickly replaced. I was thinking that those carriers due for replacement be kept in a "ready reserve", not necessarily with their own air groups. I view them as a kind of emergency airstrip.
> Running a carrier battle group around the 'Horn from the Atlantic or being forced to travel through other choke points would take a lot of time.



Additional to this, I hope we're upgrading our defenses against hypersonics.

I haven't read the study to garner the specifics, but that has to be a major concern going forward, what with China's strategy of using said missiles for A²/AD purposes.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Snautzer01 (Yesterday at 1:48 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> I believe we will lose a carrier or two


That, i believe would be very optimistic. China has no naval fighting expierence. None. 
It's putting (lets be gentle) a body builder against a Mike Tyson in his prime. 
No contest. He looks good but will he will be bleeding in a corner after 30 seconds not to get up. And that is with a referee. 
No i think the chinese navy is not ready to fight any one on equal therm let alone the united states navy. And i think they know.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 1:57 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> Additional to this, I hope we're upgrading our defenses against hypersonics.
> 
> I haven't read the study to garner the specifics, but that has to be a major concern going forward, what with China's strategy of using said missiles for A²/AD purposes.


That's assuming that China can get their HSWs into play before their weapon platforms are taken out.

One of the key factors here, is the USN is not only numerically superior, but on a par technologically.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 2:00 PM)

Snautzer01 said:


> That, i believe would be very optimistic. China has no naval fighting expierence. None.
> It's putting (lets be gentle) a body builder against a Mike Tyson in his prime.
> No contest. He looks good but will he will be bleeding in a corner after 30 seconds not to get up. And that is with a referee.
> No i think the chinese navy is not ready to fight any one on equal therm let alone the united states navy. And i think they know.



The issue is not the PLAN warships, it's the missiles they've deployed to deny the area around Taiwan to surface combatants or resupply shipping. The hypothetical naval war here will not be about crossing Ts or whose guns have more range, it will be about land- and air-launched missiles forcing the USN to either maintain a safe distance or risk its ships to said missiles.

As noted above, and as we saw in the Pacific War, USN carrier strength will be vital, and in that sense you're very right; we have a huge lead in the doctrinal and operational aspects of carrier warfare, not to mention a big numerical superiority. But carriers make tempting targets for a missile barrage that could likely overcome the missile-defense systems of any carrier task force we could float, which is why I think those defenses urgently need upgrading in both numbers and quality.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 2:01 PM)

GrauGeist said:


> That's assuming that China can get their HSWs into play before their weapon platforms are taken out.



Many of those are land-based and inside China. Would we be willing to strike the Chinese mainland and risk nuclear war?

ETA: I'm skimming the report now, and saved it for in-depth study. But it's obvious that CSIS considers this a big issue.


----------



## GrauGeist (Yesterday at 2:15 PM)

It's true that HSWs can travel a mile a second (or so), but range is critical for it's success.
The further out they are launched, the better to detect and deploy countermeasures.

The Chinese can do all they want with land-based attacks, but at some point, they are going to need to take to the water in order to conduct an invasion - and that's where they'll be in serious trouble.

Reactions: Agree Agree:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## SaparotRob (Yesterday at 3:28 PM)

Thumpalumpacus said:


> The issue is not the PLAN warships, it's the missiles they've deployed to deny the area around Taiwan to surface combatants or resupply shipping. The hypothetical naval war here will not be about crossing Ts or whose guns have more range, it will be about land- and air-launched missiles forcing the USN to either maintain a safe distance or risk its ships to said missiles.
> 
> As noted above, and as we saw in the Pacific War, USN carrier strength will be vital, and in that sense you're very right; we have a huge lead in the doctrinal and operational aspects of carrier warfare, not to mention a big numerical superiority. But carriers make tempting targets for a missile barrage that could likely overcome the missile-defense systems of any carrier task force we could float, which is why I think those defenses urgently need upgrading in both numbers and quality.


You nicely elaborated on the point I might not have made. They got a crap load of missiles and they are all probably prioritized for carriers.
We must assume they will work as advertised. I believe it would be irresponsible otherwise. 
It would be cool if a USN surface group ambushed a PLAN force in The Slot when the PLAN was trying reinforce whatever Guadalcanal is now called.

Reactions: Like Like:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## Thumpalumpacus (Yesterday at 6:16 PM)

SaparotRob said:


> You nicely elaborated on the point I might not have made. They got a crap load of missiles and they are all probably prioritized for carriers.
> We must assume they will work as advertised. I believe it would be irresponsible otherwise.
> It would be cool if a USN surface group ambushed a PLAN force in The Slot when the PLAN was trying reinforce whatever Guadalcanal is now called.



VA and VF are still on the table, provided they launch in time. The Chinese will take a toll from the USN, but likewise we'll do the same to them.

ETA: Hope Ching Lee is involved.

Reactions: Funny Funny:
1 | Like List reactions


----------



## ThomasP (Today at 2:58 AM)

Despite the hype  where hypersonic missiles are concerned, the latest Standard missile variants on the US destroyers and cruisers have a pretty good PK against such targets. The 20mm Phalanx CIWS has a reasonable PK also. The latest info I have seen says the shorter range missile systems are not as capable against hypersonic missiles.


----------

