# Shades of 1930?



## diddyriddick (Sep 23, 2010)

Historic enmity between China and Japan heats up.

World Blog - Historic enmity between China and Japan heats up


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## Aaron Brooks Wolters (Sep 23, 2010)

I had not heard about this. Interesting. Hope the two countries can work it out peacefully.


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## ccheese (Sep 23, 2010)

Had not heard about it either. Either country could muster a million man army in a heartbeat.... so it could get very
ugly. Russia would back China, and the US would back Japan, and it would be "here we go again".

Charles


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## Shinpachi (Sep 23, 2010)

That is not so big news here as in China.
I am frankly surprised.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

ccheese said:


> Had not heard about it either. Either country could muster a million man army in a heartbeat.... so it could get very
> ugly. Russia would back China, and the US would back Japan, and it would be "here we go again".
> 
> Charles



I worked briefly in Russia and for a year in China. The Russians are as afraid of China as they are of the west. China is a nuclear power who share a border and outnumber them by approximately 10 to 1 and Chinas population is increasing while Russias is pretty static. So I dont know whether Russia would back China for ideological reasons or stay on the right side for fear of making an enemy of them.

The Chinese young and old all have a deap seated loathing of Japan, there has been no reconciliation as there has in Europe.


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## Shinpachi (Sep 24, 2010)

There was reconciliation, TEC , before Mao Zedong took power.
Thanks for sharing your good experience in Russia and China.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> There was reconciliation, TEC , before Mao Zedong took power.
> Thanks for sharing your good experience in Russia and China.



lol Shinpachi ...believe me Russia wasnt a good experience. Russia was the most depressing and scary place I ever went to. My father was on the arctioc convoys taking food and materials to them and they arrested him for his trouble.

What I meant was a reconcilliation between the people. Many would not buy a Japanese car because they still get vandalised for instance.


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## Glider (Sep 24, 2010)

China is starting to throw its weight about in economic matters as well as political. Nearly all modern electronics from cruise missiles to laptops and optics, use substances called rare earth materials. China over the last 20 years has built up a near monopoly by undercutting the price forcing other companies out of business. The USA closed its last mine around 5 years ago.
About a month ago they cut exports to the rest of the world by 71% citing the environmental damage done by the ore extraction and their own need. Companies would only get the materials they need if they relocate their high tech factories and reasearch labs to China and Japan seems to be the first country to feel the pinch.

To give you some idea the material costs approx $800,000 a ton.

I suspect this type of dispute has some way to go.


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## timshatz (Sep 24, 2010)

I'm with Glider on this one. This is just getting started. There are a bunch of islands/islets out in the S China Sea (and other places) that are disputed. As economic power grows, as economic need grows and there is no central authority to mediate disputes, it is pretty likely this will get out of hand. Especially when the global economy tanks at some point. Then, Govts will look after their own at the expense of others. In Asia, that means grabbing raw materials. 

Europe went through this process in the 20th century and it took two very brutal wars for it all to settle out, at least to the point it is at now (much better than 100 years ago but still with problems).

Asia has not and the populations, power and needs are growing. 

This sort of thing is going to become more common. Where it goes is an unknown.


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## timshatz (Sep 24, 2010)

Less the 1930s, more the late 1800s with China playing the part of Germany, Japan being England, India being France and a ton of Balkan like states throughout the region.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

Glider said:


> China is starting to throw its weight about in economic matters as well as political. Nearly all modern electronics from cruise missiles to laptops and optics, use substances called rare earth materials. China over the last 20 years has built up a near monopoly by undercutting the price forcing other companies out of business. The USA closed its last mine around 5 years ago.
> About a month ago they cut exports to the rest of the world by 71% citing the environmental damage done by the ore extraction and their own need. Companies would only get the materials they need if they relocate their high tech factories and reasearch labs to China and Japan seems to be the first country to feel the pinch.
> 
> To give you some idea the material costs approx $800,000 a ton.
> ...



Glider

I read aboiut that but the article stated that rare earth metals arnt in fact rare, they occur all over the world but are expensive to extract. China has cornered the market by undercutting the price, it will take a few years for other miners to develop mines.

But I agree with everything you say china is flexing her muscles.


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## Shinpachi (Sep 24, 2010)

China did not claim the islands till 1970 when the possibility of the offshore oil field around there was pointed out.
Their old maps and documents show they were recognizing the islands belonging to Japan.

As TEC points out, the rare earth metals are not rare.
A few years for development looks short.


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## mikewint (Sep 24, 2010)

tailend, you are correct the "rare earth metals" (earth is an old term for an ore) comprise the lanthanides and actinides. the actinides are radioactive like uranium or thorium and most are man-made. so the term rare earth applies to the lanthanides, 14 elements whose chemical and physical properties are almost identical to the element lanthanum. such an ore would be a mixture of several lanthanides and the identicalness of properties make separation very very difficult and expensive. thus it is a pure sample of one of these elements that is rare and expensive


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

mikewint said:


> tailend, you are correct the "rare earth metals" (earth is an old term for an ore) comprise the lanthanides and actinides. the actinides are radioactive like uranium or thorium and most are man-made. so the term rare earth applies to the lanthanides, 14 elements whose chemical and physical properties are almost identical to the element lanthanum. such an ore would be a mixture of several lanthanides and the identicalness of properties make separation very very difficult and expensive. thus it is a pure sample of one of these elements that is rare and expensive



Mike like I said I read it in an article (in a business section). The rare has a different meaning to normal......some are very very common (it said) its the exctraction that is the problem.


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## timshatz (Sep 24, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> China did not claim the islands till 1970 when the possibility of the offshore oil field around there was pointed out.
> Their old maps and documents show they were recognizing the islands belonging to Japan.
> 
> As TEC points out, the rare earth metals are not rare.
> A few years for development looks short.



Sounds about right. Century old claims all of the sudden pop up when somebody thinks there's money to be made.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

timshatz said:


> Sounds about right. Century old claims all of the sudden pop up when somebody thinks there's money to be made.



As far as I could make out the Chinese make a claim to any land that uses "chinese" characters as a language.


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## Marcel (Sep 24, 2010)

tail end charlie said:


> As far as I could make out the Chinese make a claim to any land that uses "chinese" characters as a language.



They can claim the restaurant around the corner then


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## Shinpachi (Sep 24, 2010)

tail end charlie said:


> As far as I could make out the Chinese make a claim to any land that uses "chinese" characters as a language.



So the Koreans abandoned the Chinese characters.
Since Mongolian, Korean and Japanese are brothers linguistically, we may have to consider it too


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

Marcel said:


> They can claim the restaurant around the corner then


You bet 

funny think was I loved chinese food in china and I cant look at it here


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## syscom3 (Sep 24, 2010)

I've always said that the next world war will start in SE Asia over the Spratleys or some other god forsaken islands.

"Rare earth metals" is what they're called. Blame the scientists who gave it their name.

A massive rare earth mineral belt was discovered this year in Idaho. But the environmentalists will block its development.

The US should stay out of this one. No national interests are involved. No need to be suckered into a war we don't want or need over places no one has ever heard of.

The parallels between the PRC and Imperial Germany are striking.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> So the Koreans abandoned the Chinese characters.
> Since Mongolian, Korean and Japanese are brothers linguistically, we may have to consider it too



shinpachi I was told several times that the korean flag is based on Chinese characters (sorry cant remember the details)

The fact that these characters were used before china ever became a nation is of course completely ignored.


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## Shinpachi (Sep 24, 2010)

tail end charlie said:


> shinpachi I was told several times that the korean flag is based on Chinese characters (sorry cant remember the details)
> 
> The fact that these characters were used before china ever became a nation is of course completely ignored.



Yes, I have ever heard that the Korean flag design is based on Yin Yang philosophy of ancient China.
My Korean friend once said "The center disc of twisted red and blue shows male and female".
I don't know if it's true (Sorry, Mr. Shin)


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## tail end charlie (Sep 24, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> Yes, I have ever heard that the Korean flag design is based on Yin Yang philosophy of ancient China.
> My Korean friend once said "The center disc of twisted red and blue shows male and female".
> I don't know if it's true (Sorry, Mr. Shin)



Yes, but not only that the outer symbols I was told had their origins in china too.


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## mikewint (Sep 24, 2010)

The so called rare earth elements have become immensely important to modern technology, most goes into catalytic converters both for auto directly and petroleum refining, lasers, optical amps for fibre optic cables (we're probably doing this internet over those very cables). the US and India used to be top suppliers until the chinese undercut everyone and competing mines closed much as what the mid-east does to energy competetors. there are deposits elsewhere, mountain pass, calif is opening soon, mount weld, australia and hoidas lake, canada are coming on line with huge deposits.
again the so called rare earth are not rare in abundance it was their chemical/physical pureification that made pure samples rare. today, ion-exchange resins and fractional crystalization make purification a lot easier


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## Shinpachi (Sep 25, 2010)

Well, Japan has begun to review her dependence on the rare earth metals.


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## mikewint (Sep 25, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> Well, Japan has begun to review her dependence on the rare earth metals.



Unfortunately, if you want all these hi-tech things there is no substitute:
Major Uses of Rare Earth Elements

Lanthanum comes from the mineral bastnasite, and is extracted via a method called "solvent extraction." Lanthanum is a strategically important rare earth element due to its activity in catalysts that are critical in petroleum refining. By one estimate, lanthanum "cracking-agents" increase refinery yield by as much as 10%, while reducing overall refinery power consumption.

Cerium is the most abundant of the rare earth elements. Cerium is critical in the manufacture of environmental protection and pollution-control systems, from automobiles to oil refineries. Cerium oxides, and other cerium compounds, go into catalytic converters and larger-scale equipment to reduce the sulfur oxide emissions. Cerium is a diesel fuel additive for micro-filtration of pollutants, and promotes more complete fuel combustion for more energy efficiency.

Neodymium is a critical component of strong permanent magnets. Cell phones, portable CD players, computers and most modern sound systems would not exist in their current form without using neodymium magnets. Neodymium-Iron- Boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets are essential for miniaturizing a variety of technologies. These magnets maximize the power/cost ratio, and are used in a large variety of motors and mechanical systems.

Europium offers exceptional properties of photon emission. When it absorbs electrons or UV radiation, the europium atom changes energy levels to create a visible, luminescent emission. This emission creates the perfect red phosphors used in color televisions and computer screens around the world. Europium is also used in fluorescent lighting, which cuts energy use by 75% compared to incandescent lighting. In the medical field, europium is used to tag complex biochemical agents which helps to trace these materials during tissue research.

Praseodymium comprises just 4% of the lanthanide content of bastnasite, but is used as a common coloring pigment. Along with neodymium, praseodymium is used to filter certain wavelengths of light. So praseodymium finds specific uses in photographic filters, airport signal lenses, welder's glasses, as well as broad uses in ceramic tile and glass (usually yellow). When used in an alloy, praseodymium is a component of permanent magnet systems designed for small motors. Praseodymium also has applications in internal combustion engines, as a catalyst for pollution control.

Yttrium is rare in bastnasite, so is usually recovered from even more obscure minerals and ores. Still, almost every vehicle on the road contains yttriumbased materials that improve the fuel efficiency of the engine. Another important use of yttrium is in microwave communication devices. Yttrium- Iron-Garnets (YIG) are used as resonators in frequency meters, magnetic field measurement devices, tunable transistors and Gunn oscillators. Yttrium goes into laser crystals specific to spectral characteristics for high-performance communication systems.

Other Rare Earth Elements

Most of the remaining lanthanides fall into the group known as the "heavies" and include: Samarium, Gadolinium, Dysprosium, Terbium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, and Lutetium.

Samarium has properties of spectral absorption that make it useful in filter glasses that surround neodymium laser rods.

Gadolinium offers unique magnetic behavior. Thus this element is at the heart of magneto-optic recording technology, and other technology used in handling computer data.

Dysprosium is a widely used rare earth element that helps to make electronic components smaller and faster.

Terbium is used in energy efficient fluorescent lamps. There are various terbium metal alloys that provide metallic films for magnetooptic data recording.

Holmium is exceedingly rare and expensive. Hence it has few commercial uses.

Erbium has remarkable optical properties that make it essential for use in long-range fiber optic data transmission.

Thulium is the rarest of the rare earth elements. Its chemistry is similar to that of Yttrium. Due to its unique photographic properties, Thulium is used in sensitive X-ray phosphors to reduce X-ray exposure.

Ytterbium resembles Yttrium in broad chemical behavior. When subject to high stresses, the electrical resistance of the metal increases by an order of magnitude. So ytterbium is used in stress gauges to monitor ground deformations caused, for example, by earthquakes or underground explosions.

Lutetium, the last member of the Lanthanide series is, along with thulium, the least abundant. It is recovered, by ion-exchange routines, in small quantities from yttrium-concentrates and is available as a high-purity oxide. Cerium-doped lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO) is currently used in detectors in positron emission tomography (PET).


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## Shinpachi (Sep 28, 2010)

Embargo by China was anticipated by the Japanese makers for a long time because China needs such rare earth metals more and more for herself year by year. 
Embargo this time is expected bringing the limited impact to the Japanese makers. For more details through the google translation.


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## michaelmaltby (Sep 28, 2010)

".... the parallels between the PRC and Imperial Germany are striking."

Interesting observation, Syscom. Care to elaborate a wee bit ?

MM


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## timshatz (Sep 28, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> Embargo by China was anticipated by the Japanese makers for a long time because China needs such rare earth metals more and more for herself year by year.
> Embargo this time is expected bringing the limited impact to the Japanese makers. For more details through the google translation.



Ahhhh man, everybody remember what happened last time somebody embargoed Japan? Last time, Japan was an agressor nation. This time, no chance. Just defending what is recognized (for the most part) as hers. 

I agree with Sys that some small time islands somewhere in the South China Seas will probably be the focus of the next war but it has a ways to go yet. Like the begining of the last century, there should be a "crisis" every couple of years before one goes from crisis to conflict. And usually, there are a few regional brawls or general instability in the region that promotes the larger conflict.

No way to tell if this is just banana republic stuff or the setting for a larger conflict until it happens. But it bares watching.


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## timshatz (Sep 28, 2010)

michaelmaltby said:


> ".... the parallels between the PRC and Imperial Germany are striking."
> 
> Interesting observation, Syscom. Care to elaborate a wee bit ?
> 
> MM



Growing industrial power.
Sole party leadership.
Increasing Military Strength.
Expanding Navy.
Fear, on the part of the Chinese, that others might be gaining on them
Feeling, on the part of the chinese, that they are somewhat oppressed and the future is their right. 
Growing nationalism.
A region with a long history of local wars.


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## tail end charlie (Sep 28, 2010)

timshatz said:


> Growing industrial power.
> Sole party leadership.
> Increasing Military Strength.
> Expanding Navy.
> ...



You could also add a draconian state propaganda machine widespread censorship and a re invented history to substantiate modern territorial claims.


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## mikewint (Sep 28, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> No matter how much you stock pile or recycle sooner or later Japan is going to run short and technology is ever changing so what new metal is going to be required. hopefully US, Canadian, and Australian sources will be on line by then because the US is in the same position


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## mikewint (Sep 28, 2010)

timshatz said:


> Ahhhh man, everybody remember what happened last time somebody embargoed Japan? Last time, Japan was an agressor nation. This time, no chance. Just defending what is recognized (for the most part) as hers.



Depends on what any nation decides "belongs" to it. Prior to Pearl Harbor Japan felt those oil supplies "belonged" to it and they could not survive as an industrial nation without them. Would the US do any different today if suddenly mid-east oil supplies were embargoed from us. nations like people do desperate things in desperate times


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## Shinpachi (Sep 28, 2010)

timshatz said:


> Ahhhh man, everybody remember what happened last time somebody embargoed Japan? Last time, Japan was an agressor nation. This time, no chance. Just defending what is recognized (for the most part) as hers.



The embargo by somebody last time was a good experience for the Japanese to understand the importance of risk hedge




mikewint said:


> No matter how much you stock pile or recycle sooner or later Japan is going to run short and technology is ever changing so what new metal is going to be required. hopefully US, Canadian, and Australian sources will be on line by then because the US is in the same position



I always appreciate your kind advice, mikewint.
Thank you very much.


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## timshatz (Sep 28, 2010)

mikewint said:


> Depends on what any nation decides "belongs" to it. Prior to Pearl Harbor Japan felt those oil supplies "belonged" to it and they could not survive as an industrial nation without them. Would the US do any different today if suddenly mid-east oil supplies were embargoed from us. nations like people do desperate things in desperate times



That argument is a bit of a stretch. While I can understand the perspective that they considered it part of their strategic influence (as we would today), the Japanese of 1930-40 had a shoot first, never ask questions mentality. They invaded or attacked every country surrounding them with the exception of Canada. Don't believe they had anything good to say about Canada, they just didn't get around to it. 

The US has not had a record anywhere near that. The Monroe Doctrine established the idea that we will fight outside forces in our Hemisphere but it did not say we would take over countries in the hemisphere. Even the Banana Wars of the 1920/30s, were cases where the US sent troops in to stabelize and then left. Japan didn't believe in leaving.


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## mikewint (Sep 28, 2010)

tim, i was not trying to draw a direct parallel and i don't want to draw this thread in another direction or get political but the US is firmly attached to the mid-east teet. we could not survive as a nation without that oil. if that oil were cut off for whatever reason we would have no choice. The US cannot be run with horses. desperate nations like desperate men do desperate things and justify them later


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## timshatz (Sep 28, 2010)

No problem Mike, it's not a political argument. The US gets most of it's oil from Canada, followed by Saudi Arabia, then Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuela. The political situations in all those countries run the gamut from Friendly (Canada) to Hostile (Venezuela). Yet none of them have been invaded by the US. Simply not a way we do business as a nation. While oil is hugely important to us (and every other developed country in the world). Here is a link to the details:

Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries

The US also has domestic reserves that are not available for Political reasons. If the pressure were great enough, it is a pretty good bet we would drill in those places that are currently offline. How long that would take is an open question. But considering the option of going to war or drilling, I'm inclined to think we would drill first if it came down to it. Especially if our enemy had an industrial base that was many times the size of our base, a situation Japan faced in 1941. 

I understand where you are coming from in the respect that we have "interests" ("Nations don't have friends, they have interests"). But don't think our interests are pursued with the same ruthlessness that Japan showed in the 30s. To my mind they are two different perspectives. Similar at points, but different in crucial moral points.


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## mikewint (Sep 28, 2010)

the japanese made two eventually fatal errors, failure to launch secondary attack waves which would have taked out those tank farms and the most serious, not having troop ships to attack via land. if you're going to attack someone a lot bigger than you, go all out, 'cause if he gets up....
tim, i guess i've seen too much of men acting in their countries "best interests". morality is the first to go when you are dealing with them. it's only a matter of time before these countries decide that they had better keep some of their natural resources for themselves as china is doing now. we actually have more oil than the mid-east locked up in oil shale. process a couple of tons and a whole barrel of oil. there is only so much oil in the world, it's only a question of time. i really hope morality wins but i won't bet the ranch on it. i need a place to keep my horse


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## timshatz (Sep 29, 2010)

mikewint said:


> tim, i guess i've seen too much of men acting in their countries "best interests". morality is the first to go when you are dealing with them. it's only a matter of time before these countries decide that they had better keep some of their natural resources for themselves as china is doing now. we actually have more oil than the mid-east locked up in oil shale. process a couple of tons and a whole barrel of oil. there is only so much oil in the world, it's only a question of time. i really hope morality wins but i won't bet the ranch on it. i need a place to keep my horse



I'm inclined to agree with you. The Far East has a history of long and very bloody wars. Total War didn't start in the West, it may've been refined here but the Far East were hard at it a long time ago. It was the place where any number of innovations occured that ended up killing people in larger numbers (Crossbow, Gunpowder, ect). 

It is odd but the innovations go hand in hand with the Massacres. Not really odd so much (you would figure a new weapon would be better at killing than the old one, otherwise why bother making it) as....I dunno, unfortunate, sad, depressing...not sure what the word is for it. 

But I agree that the Eastern perspective on spheres of influence will greatly affect the potential for war out there. And Oil is the big one when it comes to strategic materials. 

Just hope we stay on our side of the Pacific.


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## mikewint (Sep 29, 2010)

tim, as long as the question is one of rare earth metals we're in a relatively good position. there are three mines in the US (not active at present) and Canada is developing a huge mine.
petroleum on the other hand is another question as china develops and becomes more and more industrialized its thirst for oil will increase exponentially. sooner, than later we're going to going head to head over that last pork-chop


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## Matt308 (Sep 29, 2010)

Hey guys, a gentle reminder to drop the use of derogatory references based upon race, ethnic background or nationality. If it continues the next reminder will not be so gentle. Thanks guys.


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## mikewint (Sep 29, 2010)

Matt, i believe you misunderstood my meaning. the enemy is always depersonalized, it makes them easier to kill because you are not killing human beings and therefore morality never enters in to it. my statement that "morality is the first to go" refered to that depersonalization not to any specific race, nationality or color. troops in Iraq/afganistan do the same thing today as we did in vietnam as soldiers did in korea etc.
if any of you misunderstood my meaning in that phrase i ask your forgiveness it was not meant in a derogatory term except to the inhumanity of man


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## Shinpachi (Sep 29, 2010)

Thanks for your care, Matt.
I, as a non-American at least, felt no derogatory but mikewint's opinion sounded closer to mine.


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## mikewint (Sep 29, 2010)

Shinpachi, i'm glad that i did not offend you, nothing was further from my mind. all races have derogatory names for members not of their race and soldiers everywhere do it to the enemy


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## Matt308 (Sep 29, 2010)

The Mods recognize where many of these terms are derived and why. However, we still dol not condone their use here. So please refrain from doing so in the public forum. Thanks, Mike.


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## Shinpachi (Sep 29, 2010)

Not at all, mikewint.
At least, I was enjoying your discussion with curiousity.

What I am sad is, if any, our politicians are trying to rely on the US military power so easily without making their basic efforts to solve the problem with China face to face. 
They could do it because two nations were friendly for more than five hundreds years till the mid-19th century.

I have known this is our fault in Asia this time.


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## vikingBerserker (Sep 29, 2010)

I've always wondered about what happened. I've studied the Russo-Japanese War with great interest and one of the common things I'd always read was the Chinese preferred the Japanese Soldiers as they would camp outside of the cities and actually helped the locals with engineering projects, whereas the Russians would take over houses kicking out the occupants and commandeer whatever they needed.

However I do agree with your point Shinpachi, it would be great if the government would work on it themselves, hopefully that is the route they will take.


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## mikewint (Sep 29, 2010)

The Japanese military is a SELF-defense force but like all words is subject to definition. under the right conditions an invasion can certainly be construed as SELF defense. as to the US i really see no such senerio since we have our own sources. where i see a future conflict is over petroleum. sooner or later heads will butt over the last pork-chop


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## RabidAlien (Sep 29, 2010)

Aren't there massively huge reserves parked underneath Alaska, that we can't/won't touch for fear of harming the environment? My guess is, when that "last pork chop" comes up for grabs, the US will find itself digging in Alaska, since all the treehugger types will be unable to protest as their cars/trucks/boats run low on fuel.


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## mikewint (Sep 29, 2010)

RA, i do not think so, reserves if any are in off-shore locals, such as the gulf of mexico. The US big reserve is in the western oil shale but extraction is the problem. the oil is there but you create tons of tailings for every barrel. what we need is the so-called sweet, light crudes and that brings us back to the mid-east


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## RabidAlien (Sep 30, 2010)

Or develop alternative fuels....get those nifty nuclear battery packs, fission-engines, and hovercars going! C'mon, this is the future!


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## mikewint (Sep 30, 2010)

RA, if we speculate, the sky is the limit and anything is possible however on a practical note reality dictates that a substitute for petroleum is not in the near future. and if it were OPEC would under-cut its development. oil at the well-head is about $1.25/barrel so until they start to run out alternative fuels will never get off the ground


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## RabidAlien (Sep 30, 2010)

Oh, I'm aware of the reality of it, and why we're just now seeing some battery technology introduced in smart-cars. It just pisses me off that there are groups who are willing to put the world through what its going through now (all this territorial crap over oil and gas, and the environmental issues with drilling and exhaust gases and all) just for the sake of more bucks in their pockets. Almost makes one wish that the end of the oil would come much sooner, and spur a "sudden" boom in alternative technologies. Of course, there'd be many years of scarcity and exorbitant prices on oil and gas before someone decided that that dead horse had been squeezed as far as it could go. Heh. Might inspire a bunch of lazy couchpotatoes and pasty-skinned web-surfers to get out and bike to work instead!


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## mikewint (Sep 30, 2010)

could not agree more RA. i clearly remember the gas crises of 1975 followed by a boom of alternative energy initiatives, that died within 3-4 years as OPEC cut gas prices and drove them out of business.
just a few years ago when gas prices were heading toward $5/gal all kinds of high milage vehicles were being developed. basically the prius is all that's left with gas in the $2.50/gal range.
we make a big noise about ethanol fuels but the reality is that the amount of corn need to make one tank full of ethanol for an SUV would feed one person for a year. so land for food or land for fuel. we're on the horns RA


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## Shinpachi (Oct 1, 2010)

vikingBerserker said:


> I've always wondered about what happened. I've studied the Russo-Japanese War with great interest and one of the common things I'd always read was the Chinese preferred the Japanese Soldiers as they would camp outside of the cities and actually helped the locals with engineering projects, whereas the Russians would take over houses kicking out the occupants and commandeer whatever they needed.
> 
> However I do agree with your point Shinpachi, it would be great if the government would work on it themselves, hopefully that is the route they will take.



You are studying our history and culture very well, vB.
I admire it very much.

Though I need more research and study, the Japanese were a good student of western style of war in the early stage of their westernization in the late 19th century but were changing to the arrogant people war by war.

I guess that was because they got confidence victory after victory from First Sino-Japanese War in 1894 to the World War 1 in 1914, by way of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. Turning point looks their withdrawal from League of Nations in 1933 to me when they began to make light of the western rules.


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## SpitfireKing (Oct 6, 2010)

tail end charlie said:


> I worked briefly in Russia and for a year in China. The Russians are as afraid of China as they are of the west. China is a nuclear power who share a border and outnumber them by approximately 10 to 1 and Chinas population is increasing while Russias is pretty static. So I dont know whether Russia would back China for ideological reasons or stay on the right side for fear of making an enemy of them.
> 
> The Chinese young and old all have a deap seated loathing of Japan, there has been no reconciliation as there has in Europe.



Reading a book (wish I had it with me then I could give the title), tells about old Korea (late 19 century to mid 20th century) and gives a good view on the split between China an Japan. Been old as time itself pretty much. What I am wondering about, as I wonder about a lot really, is why they don't simply get together and talk it through, they need to, for their people and for themselves. Though I suppose ego and pride gets in the way.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 6, 2010)

We, the Japanese and the Chinese, are not so unfriendly as being reported in the news.
As long as I know, no Chinese workers and students around me went back to their home during the incident at least.
So did the Japanese in China. I myself was surprised to see the big news in the foreign news sites.


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## tail end charlie (Oct 6, 2010)

SpitfireKing said:


> Reading a book (wish I had it with me then I could give the title), tells about old Korea (late 19 century to mid 20th century) and gives a good view on the split between China an Japan. Been old as time itself pretty much. What I am wondering about, as I wonder about a lot really, is why they don't simply get together and talk it through, they need to, for their people and for themselves. Though I suppose ego and pride gets in the way.



Visiting China and Japan is like visiting Holland and Germany, Japanese and Chinese will say they are different but to an outsider many things are the same or similar. The trouble with the history of China Japan and Korea is how far back it goes, like a playground fight you cant figure out who actually started it.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 7, 2010)

Asians are brothers. Chinese, Koreans and Japanese are closer above all, so it may be easier for us to complain more directly each other than, say, westerners.
Asian style negotiation is always on the choice between the principle and the true intention.
For example, no matter what a big threat Kim Jong Il may shout, we don't understand it as his true intention. That can't be a big news here.

Please let me point out that there were no big conflicts in the east Asia till westerners came.
China was colonized and Japan had joined the game carelessly.
So, I feel deep apology for the Chinese.
We Japanese are never arrogant on this point.


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## tail end charlie (Oct 7, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> Asians are brothers. Chinese, Koreans and Japanese are closer above all, so it may be easier for us to complain more directly each other than, say, westerners.
> Asian style negotiation is always on the choice between the principle and the true intention.
> For example, no matter what a big threat Kim Jong Il may shout, we don't understand it as his true intention. That can't be a big news here.
> 
> ...



Shinpachi

there appears to be a small error on the map, Japan and Korea are the same colour. I think there are better forums for political history.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 7, 2010)

TEC. This is a historical topic.


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## tail end charlie (Oct 7, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> TEC. This is a historical topic.



Shinpachi

The great wall of china goes through present day China but originally marked its northern border
from wiki

The Chinese were already familiar with the techniques of wall-building by the time of the Spring and Autumn Period, which began around the 8th century BC.[5][6] During the Warring States Period from the 5th century BC to 221 BC, the states of Qin, Wei, Zhao, Qi, Yan and Zhongshan[7][8] all constructed extensive fortifications to defend their own borders. Built to withstand the attack of small arms such as swords and spears, these walls were made mostly by stamping earth and gravel between board frames.


The Kamikaze (神風, Japanese for divine wind), were two winds or storms that are said to have saved Japan from two Mongol fleets under Kublai Khan. These fleets attacked Japan in 1274 and again in 1281

Japan made two invasions of Korea, in Japan's first invasion 1592 and 1596, creating war along the length of the peninsula until, with a truce period, 1598. Those Imjin Wars involved China and resulted in further conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.
unquote

I dont make any excuse for the British conduct in the Opium Wars or their part in the Boxer rebelion but I dont agree that prior to European and later American involvement the region was a peaceful idyll.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 7, 2010)

I am glad TEC you have taken my post as a historical one.
I don't want to make it political either.
Thanks for your good understanding.

Sorry for my insufficient comment last time.
Korea was combined to Japan in 1910 formally based on the treaty though it was unfair one.
There was no war between China and Japan from 1281 to 1894 more than six hundreds years.
It was more than three hundreds years between Korea and Japan.
That was long enough to forget how to make a war.

China was totally forgetting how to fight, so she was easily colonized.
Japan also astonished to receive the modernized US fleet led by Commodore Perry in 1853.
To avoid colonization, through Meiji Revolution, she decided to westernize the nation with militarism in 1867.
I understand this was the beginning for the later destructive ending in 1945.

Western nations taught Japan how to make a modern war but she did not learn how to control it well.


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## mikewint (Oct 7, 2010)

Shinpachi, i don't mean to bring up old and bad times but japan's invasion of china was one of the most brutal invasions in modern history. as we call it, "The rape of Nanking". it seems to me, forgive me if i am blunt here, that there must have been tremendous amounts of hatred built-up over all those years that suddenly had a release. i also suspect that japan's island status had a lot to do with the peace between japan and china.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 7, 2010)

mikewint said:


> Shinpachi, i don't mean to bring up old and bad times but japan's invasion of china was one of the most brutal invasions in modern history. as we call it, "The rape of Nanking". it seems to me, forgive me if i am blunt here, that there must have been tremendous amounts of hatred built-up over all those years that suddenly had a release. i also suspect that japan's island status had a lot to do with the peace between japan and china.



So, as I said, I feel deep apology for the Chinese.
It was our fault with no doubt.


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## mikewint (Oct 7, 2010)

Shinpachi, there is no need for you to apologize for things done by your government any more than i am responsible for things done in vietnam by my government. humans are violent animals and our inhumanity to ourselves has no parallel in any other species. Westerners may have taught japan a new way to wage war but did not create enmity between japan and china.


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## Shinpachi (Oct 7, 2010)

Thanks mikewint for your good understanding.
The 'enmity' would be a good lesson for us.


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## tail end charlie (Oct 7, 2010)

Shinpachi said:


> I am glad TEC you have taken my post as a historical one.
> I don't want to make it political either.
> Thanks for your good understanding.
> 
> ...



Shinpachi

It is impossible to condense a whole regions history into a few paragraphs. From the British side involvement in China centered on two things 
1 Greed trying to make money out of India by selling Opium to China as well as legitimate trade.
2 Continuing the "great game" preventing Russian expansion. The fleet which defeated the Russians was mainly constructed in the UK. Japan was seen as a good ally to contain Russian expansion however after the defeat of Russia, Japan became a power in its own right and started to expand itself. China itself was hardly a country at all with rival regions and war lords some of whom had expansionist ideas in the north.

I read in one article that it was only the Japanese invasion that truely united, China initially there was no national response. 

Things change with time, Britain had many wars with the Dutch but the German states were allies, when the German states united then the situation quickly reversed.


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## javlin (Nov 1, 2010)

I do not know if hatred was the end all for China.I have been reading one the "The Rising Sun" and it goes deeply into the politics within the Japanese hierarchy with the military wanting control and China was a way to pacify the young troops in Japan for more or less National pride.There was one revolt were these young disenchanted troops killed many of the statesman of Japan and some of the Generals whom they disagreed with on China (late 20's early 30's).These young troops actually took over part of downtown Toyko for about 24hrs+ with barricades till a temporary agreement was resolved between them and the Hierarchy.

Now we have another push on Japan this time by Russia 

Japanese officials have reacted angrily to a visit today by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to a group of disputed, mineral-rich islands seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II.

Russia, however, regards the island chain as a symbol of its victory during World War II, and sees no reason why it should give up possession of a legitimately acquired prize. That island dispute has prevented the two countries from ever signing a formal peace treaty in the 65 years since the end of World War II.

Russia Angers Japan With Visit to Disputed Islands


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## javlin (Nov 23, 2010)

So N.Korea shells S.Korea with some 200 shells the most since 1953 and as I mentioned in the previous post to possibily satisfy the Military.

It also follows moves by leader Kim Jong-il to make his youngest, but unproven, son his heir apparent, leading some analysts to question whether the bombardment might in part have been an attempt to burnish the ruling family's image with the military.

The question is will S.Korea respond?will the world respond?I think quite not yet but another attack by the North will probably provide a response.You have the North in the last year sinking the Destroyer killing 46 and now this attack on the Base killing 2,remains to be seen.


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## michaelmaltby (Nov 23, 2010)

"When you got nuthin', you got nuthin' to lose"

(B Dylan)


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## javlin (Nov 24, 2010)

Typical UN response: Even as the world struggles to find workable ways to constrain North Korea’s expanding nuclear weapons program and unpredictable belligerence, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is planning how to channel new streams of aid and development money to the dangerous regime
FoxNews.com - U.N. Secretary General Eyes New Aid for North Korea

Chamberlain in the making............


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## michaelmaltby (Nov 24, 2010)

I agree, Javlin, the situation is very serious. Behind the curtain is China. China could stop this nonsense and posturing in a second - if they had the notion. But they are afraid of being over-run by N. Korean refugees if the regime collapses. (S. Korea also shares that fear). But that little pimple should be nipped.

MM


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## Njaco (Nov 24, 2010)

Just a reminder we have a thread for the recent events in Korea and to be careful this doesn't develope into a political discussion.

It has been interesting learning some background history of the Asian countries.


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## michaelmaltby (Nov 24, 2010)

@Njaco: "... we have a thread for the recent events in Korea". 

".... be careful this doesn't develope into a political discussion".


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## Njaco (Nov 24, 2010)

yeah, yeah dicotomy fer sure.


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## javlin (Nov 24, 2010)

Never thought about it that way Chris(going political) it's titled "Shades of 1930" and how while sabres rattle in the ME we have unsettle issues from even WWII left in the Far East that are perkulating.We have economic unrest almost worldwide upon us just awaiting a push by someone when they think it works to there advantage.I feel as close to WW now as I did as child in the nuclear age;does that make sense?


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## Njaco (Nov 24, 2010)

No prob and I'm enjoying thread. I just saw how it might easily slip into politics and gave a shout out to try to keep on track. I've seen tooo many threads sart innocently enough about a topic only to suddenly blossim out of control. Nobody has done any harm - yet.


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## javlin (Nov 25, 2010)

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

PThe two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities

ang Zhongying, who specializes in international politics at Renmin University of China, said the proposal is not challenging the dollar, but aimed at avoiding the risks the dollar represents.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/24/content_11599087.htm

The dollar reserve currency status allows the U.S. to run up high deficits and have its debt be denominated in the U.S. dollar, which in turn enables it to print unlimited dollars and inflate its way out of debt. America, understandably, wants to protect these privileges.

Russia is already the second biggest oil exporter and the biggest natural gas exporter in the world. 



In other words, the growing importance of Russia and China in the global energy picture -- and their phasing out of dollar usage for trading energy commodities -- would marginalize the status of the dollar.

China-Russia currency agreement further threatens U.S. dollar - Gold Matters

While we sit on our reserves and continue towards a possible state of inflation worldwide.Alot of similiar factors to the 20s and 30s;alignment of powers never thought of 15 yrs ago I think at least.Both of these countries are pressing Japan both have been at war with Japan in the last hundred years.I don't know thinking out loud here shoot me down please!I am just a causual observer taking notice and looking at an unfinished puzzle.


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## timshatz (Nov 26, 2010)

javlin said:


> St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
> .



Don't worry about that one. They may trade back and forth in their own currencies but they will use the dollar as the price setting peg. More show than anything else.

If the dollar does lose #1 currency status, expect to see a serious drop in the standard of living in the US. About 20% would be accurate. 

But that's not the currency we should be worrying about. The dollar has a long way to go before the world economic conditions destroy it. The US is a very stable place and that has a lot to do with people keeping the dollar as a peg. It just works well. 

The problem currency out there is the Euro. The member states voted for a 750Billion Euro bailout package back in the spring, to make sure they could cover whatever happened to the banking system as things go south. Greece got 110, Ireland is getting 85, Portugal looks like another 100 billion. That's 300 billion of a 750 billion Euro package. Spain and Italy are probably going to tank as well and those two are looking at 1.1 to 1.2 trillion Euro combined. 

The question is, how long will the states north of the Alps (primarily the Germans) put up with bailing out the states south of the Alps? Last time this happened, extremist groups rose. This time? Will the Euro survive? Will the EC survive? 

The next couple of years are going to be hairy.


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## javlin (Nov 29, 2010)

Don't worry about that one. They may trade back and forth in their own currencies but they will use the dollar as the price setting peg. More show than anything else
Tim is that due in part then because the dollar=oil price.I have been observing the Euro some does not seem to be working to well.I wonder how England feels about not buying into the Euro?


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## timshatz (Nov 29, 2010)

javlin said:


> Tim is that due in part then because the dollar=oil price.I have been observing the Euro some does not seem to be working to well.I wonder how England feels about not buying into the Euro?



I'm not sure it is the Dollar/Oil setup. All commodities that I know of are denominated in the Dollar, Oil is just the most obvious. Commodities have been in the dollar for over half a century. It is the default currency of choice. Not enough gold or silver out there to use as the basis for any global currency. Too little supply means too few options when a major crisis pops up. Main reason the Gold and Silver standard are gone.

The Euro is in deep, deep do-do. The talk is starting back up about it's end. This time, they are not talking about kicking countries out but Germany leaving and going alone. Same idea, I guess. Don't want to get into the details of it (that WOULD make this a political discussion) but Germany, France and some of the northern European countries leaving would allow Southern Countries to devalue the Euro and that would help. 

Suffice to say, if you want to keep track of these things, watch each country's 10 year bond prices. Germany is the benchmark. Others, in Europe, trade based off that mark:

Germany- 2.75%
Italy- 4.63%
Spain- 5.46%
Portugal- 7.0%
Ireland- 9.5%
Greece- 11.2%

US Ten year- 2.83%

The numbers are approximate. But the tipping point on a 10 year is usually around 6.5%. Once it gets past that, the downward spiral is almost impossible to stop. Hence the reason why voices are starting with a suggestion that Portugal should be bailed out. It's starting to get obvious.


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